diff --git "a/labelled_data.csv" "b/labelled_data.csv"
new file mode 100644--- /dev/null
+++ "b/labelled_data.csv"
@@ -0,0 +1,2501 @@
+id,abstract,title,seen,INCLUDE,12 - Coastal and marine Ecosystems,12 - Human and managed,"12 - Mountains, snow and ice","12 - Rivers, lakes, and soil moisture",12 - Terrestrial ES
+1448689,"The city of Bismarck, North Dakota has one of the highest numbers of West Nile Virus (WNV) cases per population in the U.S. Although the city conducts extensive mosquito surveillance, the mosquito abundance alone may not fully explain the occurrence of WNV. Here, we developed models to predict mosquito abundance and the number of WNV cases, independently, by statistically analyzing the most important climate and virus transmission factors. An analysis with the mosquito model indicated that the mosquito numbers increase during a warm and humid summer or after a severely cold winter. In addition, river flooding decreased the mosquito numbers. The number of WNV cases was best predicted by including the virus transmission rate, the mosquito numbers, and the mosquito feeding pattern. This virus transmission rate is a function of temperature and increases significantly above 20 degrees C. The correlation coefficients (r) were 0.910 with the mosquito-population model and 0.620 with the disease case model. Our findings confirmed the conclusions of other work on the importance of climatic variables in controlling the mosquito numbers and contributed new insights into disease dynamics, especially in relation to extreme flooding. It also suggested a new prevention strategy of initiating insecticides not only based on mosquito numbers but also 10-day forecasts of unusually hot weather.","Key Factors Influencing the Incidence of West Nile Virus in Burleigh County, North Dakota",1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3281128,"Changing precipitation regimes can profoundly affect plant growth in terrestrial ecosystems, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. However, how changing precipitation, especially extreme precipitation events, alters plant diversity and community composition is still poorly understood. A 3-year field manipulative experiment with seven precipitation treatments, including - 60%, - 40%, - 20%, 0% (as a control), + 20%, + 40%, and + 60% of ambient growing-season precipitation, was conducted in a semi-arid steppe in the Mongolian Plateau. Results showed total plant community cover and forb cover were enhanced with increased precipitation and reduced under decreased precipitation, whereas grass cover was suppressed under the - 60% treatment only. Plant community and grass species richness were reduced by the - 60% treatment only. Moreover, our results demonstrated that total plant community cover was more sensitive to decreased than increased precipitation under normal and extreme precipitation change, and species richness was more sensitive to decreased than increased precipitation under extreme precipitation change. The community composition and low field water holding capacity may drive this asymmetric response. Accumulated changes in community cover may eventually lead to changes in species richness. However, compared to control, Shannon-Weiner index (H) did not respond to any precipitation treatment, and Pielou's evenness index (E) was reduced under the + 60% treatment across the 3 year, but not in each year. Thus, the findings suggest that plant biodiversity in the semi-arid steppe may have a strong resistance to precipitation pattern changes through adjusting its composition in a short term.",Asymmetric responses of plant community structure and composition to precipitation variabilities in a semi-arid steppe,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+900708,"Climate influences forest structure through effects on both species demography (recruitment and mortality) and disturbance regimes. Here, I compare multi-century chronologies of regional fire years and tree recruitment from ponderosa pine forests in the Black Hills of southwestern South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming to reconstructions of precipitation and global circulation indices. Regional fire years were affected by droughts and variations in both Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Fires were synchronous with La Ninas, cool phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and warm phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These quasi-periodic circulation features are associated with drought conditions over much of the western United States. The opposite pattern (El Nino, warm PDO, cool AMO) was associated with fewer fires than expected. Regional tree recruitment largely occurred during wet periods in precipitation reconstructions, with the most abundant recruitment coeval with an extended pluvial from the late 1700s to early 1800s. Widespread even-aged cohorts likely were not the result of large crown fires causing overstory mortality, but rather were caused by optimal climate conditions that contributed to synchronous regional recruitment and longer intervals between surface fires. Synchronous recruitment driven by climate is an example of the Moran effect. The presence of abundant fire-scarred trees in multi-aged stands supports a prevailing historical model for ponderosa pine forests in which recurrent surface fires affected heterogenous forest structure, although the Black Hills apparently had a greater range of fire behavior and resulting forest structure over multi-decadal time scales than ponderosa pine forests of the Southwest that burned more often.",Climate effects on fire regimes and tree recruitment in Black Hills ponderosa pine forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3234419,"Climate change is likely to bring more, hotter and longer lasting heat waves in central Europe over the coming decades. Particularly, vulnerable groups are hit harder by heat waves. A gender-sensitive perspective has not been taken into account sufficiently in scientific studies on climate change and health. This study examined the health impact of extreme heat events from a gender-sensitive perspective and measured gender-specific individual behavioural adaptation and mitigation strategies. A cross-sectional population survey was done in Leipzig, Germany, from July to October 2014. The survey was used to determine the relationship between the influencing factors such as gender, adaptive and mitigation measures and the health burden resulting from extreme heat waves. Gender-specific differences were found for type of income, personal net income and individuals who are strongly affected by persistent heat. A significant gender difference was also found for headaches, cardiovascular diseases, different climate adaptation measures and types of mitigating behaviour. These findings confirm other study results and indicate the need for further studies on gender and diversity aspects which take into account sociodemographic, socioeconomic and climate ecological differences. Taking the public health approach, surveys for adaptation and mitigation measures are needed which explicitly consider gender and target groups? aspects.",Climate change adaptation and mitigation ? a hitherto neglected gender-sensitive public health perspective,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2090028,"Aim The long-term stability of coastal ecosystems such as mangroves and salt marshes depends upon the maintenance of soil elevations within the intertidal habitat as sea level changes. We examined the rates and processes of peat formation by mangroves of the Caribbean Region to better understand biological controls on habitat stability. Location Mangrove-dominated islands on the Caribbean coasts of Belize, Honduras and Panama were selected as study sites. Methods Biological processes controlling mangrove peat formation were manipulated (in Belize) by the addition of nutrients (nitrogen or phosphorus) to Rhizophora mangle (red mangrove), and the effects on the dynamics of soil elevation were determined over a 3-year period using rod surface elevation tables (RSET) and marker horizons. Peat composition and geological accretion rates were determined at all sites using radiocarbon-dated cores. Results The addition of nutrients to mangroves caused significant changes in rates of mangrove root accumulation, which influenced both the rate and direction of change in elevation. Areas with low root input lost elevation and those with high rates gained elevation. These findings were consistent with peat analyses at multiple Caribbean sites showing that deposits (up to 10 m in depth) were composed primarily of mangrove root matter. Comparison of radiocarbon-dated cores at the study sites with a sea-level curve for the western Atlantic indicated a tight coupling between peat building in Caribbean mangroves and sea-level rise over the Holocene. Main conclusions Mangroves common to the Caribbean region have adjusted to changing sea level mainly through subsurface accumulation of refractory mangrove roots. Without root and other organic inputs, submergence of these tidal forests is inevitable due to peat decomposition, physical compaction and eustatic sea-level rise. These findings have relevance for predicting the effects of sea-level rise and biophysical processes on tropical mangrove ecosystems.",Caribbean mangroves adjust to rising sea level through biotic controls on change in soil elevation,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+574391,"Climate change and habitat destruction have been linked to global declines in vertebrate biodiversity, including mammals, amphibians, birds, and fishes. However, invertebrates make up the vast majority of global species richness, and the combined effects of climate change and land use on invertebrates remain poorly understood. Here we present 35 years of data on 159 species of butterflies from 10 sites along an elevational gradient spanning 0-2,775 m in a biodiversity hotspot, the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Northern California. Species richness has declined at half of the sites, with the most severe reductions at the lowest elevations, where habitat destruction is greatest. At higher elevations, we observed clear upward shifts in the elevational ranges of species, consistent with the influence of global warming. Taken together, these long-term data reveal the interacting negative effects of human-induced changes on both the climate and habitat available to butterfly species in California. Furthermore, the decline of ruderal, disturbance-associated species indicates that the traditional focus of conservation efforts on more specialized and less dispersive species should be broadened to include entire faunas when estimating and predicting the effects of pervasive stressors.",Compounded effects of climate change and habitat alteration shift patterns of butterfly diversity,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+106177,"BACKGROUND: Extreme hot weather conditions have been associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but risks are not evenly distributed throughout the population. Previously, a heat vulnerability index (HVI) was created to geographically locate populations with increased vulnerability to heat in metropolitan areas throughout the United States. OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine whether areas with higher heat vulnerability, as characterized by the HVI, experienced higher rates of morbidity and mortality on abnormally hot days. METHODS: We used Poisson regression to model the interaction of HVI and deviant days (days whose deviation of maximum temperature from the 30-year normal maximum temperature is at or above the 95th percentile) on hospitalization and mortality counts in five states participating in the Environmental Public Health Tracking Network for the years 2000 through 2007. RESULTS: The HVI was associated with higher hospitalization and mortality rates in all states on both normal days and deviant days. However, associations were significantly stronger (interaction p-value < 0.05) on deviant days for heat-related illness, acute renal failure, electrolyte imbalance, and nephritis in California, heat-related illness in Washington, all-cause mortality in New Mexico, and respiratory hospitalizations in Massachusetts. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the HVI may be a marker of health vulnerability in general, although it may indicate greater vulnerability to heat in some cases.",Evaluation of a Heat Vulnerability Index on Abnormally Hot Days: An Environmental Public Health Tracking Study,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2359692,"Calcium and dairy consumption are documented to be low among African Americans and have demonstrated benefits to bone growth, overall nutritional status, and health throughout the life cycle. There is also an emerging relationship to the prevention of obesity. This low consumption has been attributed to both cultural and community/environ mental barriers. Using a life course construct and an ecological model of health behavior, this paper will illustrate why nutrition education and food consumption behavior at one stage of the life cycle may influence health status at that stage as well as influence health and consumption of calcium and dairy products at subsequent stages. The life course construct recognizes that both past and present behavior and experiences (in this case food and nutrient intake) are shaped by the wider social, economic, and cultural context and therefore may provide clues to current patterns of health and disease. The ecological model, concerned with constructs of environmental change, behavior, and policies that may help people make choices in their daily life, complements the life course approach when examining the potential influence of nutrition education provided by federally funded food and nutrition programs on calcium and dairy consumption behavior across the life cycle. The ""critical period model"" within the life course construct is operative for calcium, a nutrient for which adequate intake is critically important during adolescence when peak bone density development, necessary for later protection against osteoporosis, is important.",Models for nutrition education to increase consumption of calcium and dairy products among African Americans,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+286348,"Through the study of a late Holocene sample of small mammal remains from central Patagonia (Chubut province, Argentina) we document the regional extinction of four sigmodontines and one fossorial caviomorph rodent. This diversity loss is discussed in the light of two potential causes: Little Ice Age and human impact. We conclude that probably the latter was the main reason behind the current structure of small mammal communities. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Micromammal diversity loss in central-eastern Patagonia over the last 400 years,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2352688,"Within the northern Mississippi embayment the ancestral Mississippi River flowed south through the Western Lowlands and the ancestral Ohio River flowed through the Eastern Lowlands for most of the Pleistocene. Previous investigators have mapped and dated the terraces of their respective braid belts. This current research investigates the three-dimensional aspect of the Quaternary alluvium north of Memphis, Tennessee, through the interpretation of 3374 geologic well logs that are 91.4 m (300 ft) deep. The braid belts are capped by a thin silt/clay horizon (Pleistocene loess) that overlies gravelly sand, which in turn overlies sandy gravel. The base of the Pleistocene alluvium beneath the Ash Hill (27.3-24.6 ka), Melville Ridge (41.6-34.5 ka), and Dudley (63.5-50.1 ka) terraces of the Western Lowland slope southerly by 0.275 m/km and all have an average basal elevation of 38 m. Near Beedeville, Arkansas, the bases of these terraces descend 20 m across a northeast-striking down-to-the-southeast fault that coincides with the western margin of the Cambrian Reelfoot rift. The maximum depth of flow (lowest elevation of base of alluvium) occurred in the Eastern Lowlands and appears to have been the downstream continuation of the ancestral Ohio River Cache valley course in southern Illinois. In traversing from west to east in the Eastern Lowlands, the Sikeston braid belt (19.7-17.8 ka) has a basal elevation averaging 7 m, the Kennett braid belt (16.1-14.4 ka) averages 13 m, the Morehouse (12 ka) braid belt averages 24 m, and the Holocene (<= 10 ka) Mississippi River floodplain has the highest average basal elevation at 37 m. Along this easterly traverse the base of the Quaternary alluvium rises and the age of alluvium decreases. The eastward thinning of the floodplain alluvium in the Eastern Lowlands appears to be caused by decreasing Mississippi River discharge as it transitioned from the Wisconsinan glacial maximum to the Holocene. The base of the Holocene Mississippi River floodplain averages 23 m higher in elevation than the Pleistocene floodplain bases in the Eastern Lowlands. This high suballuvial surface (platform) is bound by the tectonically uplifted Joiner ridge, Blytheville arch, Charleston uplift, and Bluff Line fault. The spatial relationship and similar histories of the platform and bounding structures suggest that Quaternary erosion and tectonics are related. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Pleistocene-Holocene transition in the central Mississippi River valley,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+232384,"Permafrost borehole temperatures were measured in 1985, 1998, and 2004 on Barter Island near the village of Kaktovik and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (Arctic NWR) north of the Brooks Range. These measurements indicate that the century-long warming documented for the central and western Arctic has also occurred in the region near Barter Island and in the northern Arctic NWR. At Kaktovik, the warming occurred during the second quarter of the 20th century or earlier and its magnitude exceeded 0.8 degrees C. A more recent warming (since the mid to late 1980s) similar to that in the central and western Arctic is also occurring on Barter Island and in the northern Arctic NWR. Near Kaktovik, the permafrost warmed about 2 to 3 degrees C from 1985 to 2004. In the northern Arctic NWR, on a line extending southward from Tapkaurak Point, it warmed about 1.5 to 2 degrees C from 1985 to 1998. If air temperatures warm 5 degrees C over the next century, as predicted, some of the permafrost in the northern Arctic NWR would be expected to thaw. Copyright (C) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Warming of permafrost in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2348899,"Local and global sensitivity and uncertainty methods are applied to a box model of the dimethylsulfide (DMS) oxidation cycle in the remote marine boundary layer in order to determine the key physical and chemical parameters and sources of uncertainty. The model considers 58 uncertain parameters, and simulates the diurnal gas-phase cycles of DMS, SO2, methanesulfonic acid (MSA), and H2SO4 for clear-sky summertime conditions observed over the Southern Ocean. The results of this study depend on many underlying assumptions, including the DMS mechanism, simulation conditions, and probability distribution functions of the uncertain parameters. A local direct integration method is used to calculate first-order local sensitivity coefficients for infinitesimal perturbations about the parameter means. Key parameters identified by this analysis are related to DMS emissions, vertical mixing, heterogeneous removal, and the DMS+OH abstraction and addition reactions. MSA and H2SO4 are also sensitive to numerous rate constants, which limits the ability of using parameterized mechanisms to predict their concentrations. Of the chemistry, H2SO4 is highly sensitive to the rate constants for a set of nighttime reactions that lead to its production through a non-SO2 path initiated by the oxidation of DMS by NO3. For the global analysis, the probabilistic collocation method is used to propagate the uncertain parameters through the model. The concentrations of DMS and SO2 are uncertain (1-sigma) by factors of 3.5 and 2.5, respectively, while MSA and H2SO4 have uncertainty factors that range between 4.1 and 8.6. The main sources of uncertainty in the four species are from DMS emissions and heterogeneous scavenging, but the uncertain rate constants collectively account for up to 59% of the total uncertainty in MSA and 43% in H2SO4. Of the uncertain DMS chemistry, reactions that form and destroy CH3S(O)OO and CH3SO3 are identified as important targets for reducing the uncertainties.",Parametric sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of dimethylsulfide oxidation in the clear-sky remote marine boundary layer,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+128629,"Global warming is causing changes in temperature at a rate unmatched by any temperature change over the last 50 million years. Crop cultivars have been selected for optimal performance under the current climatic conditions. With global warming, characterized by shifts in weather patterns and increases in frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, new ideotypes will be required with a different set of physiological traits. Severe pressure has been placed on breeders to produce new crop cultivars for a future, rapidly-changing environment that can only be predicted with a great degree of uncertainty and is not available in the present day for direct experiments or field trials. Mathematical modelling, therefore, in conjunction with crop genetics, represents a powerful tool to assist in the breeding process. In this review, drought and high temperature are considered as key stress factors with a high potential impact on crop yield that are associated with global warming, focusing on their effects on wheat. Modelling techniques are described which can help to quantify future threats to wheat growth under climate change and simple component traits that are amenable to genetic analysis are identified. This approach could be used to support breeding programmes for new wheat cultivars suitable for future environments brought about by the changing climate.",Identifying target traits and molecular mechanisms for wheat breeding under a changing climate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+690856,"Evidence is strong that the changes observed in the Earth's globally averaged temperature over the past half-century are caused to a large degree by human activities. Efforts to document accompanying precipitation changes in observations have met with limited success, and have been primarily focussed on large-scale regions in order to reduce the relative impact of the natural variability of precipitation as compared to any potential forced change. Studies have not been able to identify statistically significant changes in observed precipitation on small spatial scales. General circulation climate models offer the possibility to extend the analysis of precipitation changes into the future, to determine when simulated changes may emerge from the simulated variability locally as well as regionally. Here we estimate the global temperature increase needed for the precipitation ""signal"" to emerge from the ""noise"" of interannual variability within various climatic regions during their wet season. The climatic regions are defined based on cluster analysis. The dry season is not included due to poor model performance as compared to measurements during the observational period. We find that at least a 1.4 degrees C warmer climate compared with the early 20th century is needed for precipitation changes to become statistically significant in any of the analysed climate regions. By the end of this century, it is likely that many land regions will experience statistically significant mean precipitation changes during wet season relative to the early 20th century based on an A1B scenario. Citation: Mahlstein, I., R. W. Portmann, J. S. Daniel, S. Solomon, and R. Knutti (2012), Perceptible changes in regional precipitation in a future climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L05701, doi: 10.1029/2011GL050738.",Perceptible changes in regional precipitation in a future climate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2309910,"Purpose of Review Recognizing health effects of changes in temperature caused by climate change and changes in air pollution affected by temperature changes on human health, predicting the health effects of both future temperature changes and air quality changes caused by climate change is critical to adopting a range of measures to respond to future climate change. The purpose of this review is to summarize studies on the health effects of temperature and air quality changes affected by climate change directly or indirectly, and to summarize the limitations of these studies. Recent Findings After summarizing the main methods and results, we conclude that past temperature changes and air pollution caused by climate change directly or indirectly have a serious impact on the mortality or morbidity of human diseases, and climate change does impact human health and will exacerbate these effects. Moreover, it may have spatial and socioeconomic differences in the world. Nonetheless, these studies also indicate that policies about climate change and emission reduction can reduce these effects. Summary The evaluation focuses on the interaction between temperature change and air quality caused by climate change and assesses the impact of both on human health. There are still some uncertainties in existing research, and future health predictions related to climate change should focus on quantitative exploration of temperature and air pollution changes, eliminate interference caused by factors such as industrialization, and demographic changes, while the choice of meteorological conditions should be further extended, not just limited to the temperature and air quality.",Health Effects of Climate Change Through Temperature and Air Pollution,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+674383,"A warming trend has become pronounced since the 1980s in China and is projected to accelerate in the future. Concerns about the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change are increasing. The impact of future climate change on crop production has been widely predicted by using crop models and climate change scenarios, but little evidence of the observed impacts of climate change on crop production has been reported. In this study, we synthesized crop and climate data from representative stations across China during 1981-2000 to investigate whether there were significant trends in changes of climate variables in different regions, and whether theses changes have had significant impact on the development and production of the staple crops (i.e. rice, wheat, and maize). Our results showed that significant warming trends were observed at most of the investigated stations, and the changes in temperature have shifted crop phenology and affected crop yields during the two decades. The observed climate change patterns, as well their impacts on crop phenology and yields are spatially diverse across China. Our study also highlights the need for further investigations of the combined impacts of temperature and CO2 concentration on physiological processes and mechanisms governing crop growth and production. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+411770,"The Arctic is currently undergoing rapid social and environmental changes, and while the peoples of the north have a long history of adapting, the current changes in climate pose unprecedented challenges to the marine mammal-human interactions in the Arctic regions. Arctic marine mammals have been and remain an important resource for many of the indigenous and nonindigenous people of the north. Changes in climate are likely to bring about profound changes to the environment in which these animals live and subsequently to the hunting practices and livelihoods of the people who hunt them. Climate change will lead to reduction in the sea ice extent and thickness and will likely increase shipping through the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage and oil and. gas activities in Arctic areas previously inaccessible. Such activities will lead to more frequent interactions between humans and marine mammals. These activities may also change the distribution of marine mammals, affecting the hunters. This paper has three parts. First, an overview of marine mammal harvesting activities in the different circumpolar regions provides a snapshot of current practices and conditions. Second case studies of selected Arctic regions, indigenous groups, and species provide insight into the manner in which climate change is already impacting marine mammal harvesting activities in the Arctic. Third, we describe how climate change is likely to affect shipping and oil and gas exploration and production activities in the Arctic and describe the possible implications of these changes for the marine mammal populations. We conclude that many of the consequences of climate change are likely to be negative for marine mammal hunters and for marine mammals. Lack of adequate baseline data, however, makes it difficult to identify specific causal mechanisms and thus to develop appropriate conservation measures. Nonetheless, the future of Arctic marine mammals and human uses of them depends on addressing this challenge successfully.",Marine mammal harvests and other interactions with humans,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2328049,"The Indian Ocean is warming faster than any of the global oceans and its climate is uniquely driven by the presence of a landmass at low latitudes, which causes monsoonal winds and reversing currents. The food, water, and energy security in the Indian Ocean rim countries and islands are intrinsically tied to its climate, with marine environmental goods and services, as well as trade within the basin, underpinning their economies. Hence, there are a range of societal needs for Indian Ocean observation arising from the influence of regional phenomena and climate change on, for instance, marine ecosystems, monsoon rains, and sea-level. The Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS), is a sustained observing system that monitors basin-scale ocean-atmosphere conditions, while providing flexibility in terms of emerging technologies and scientific and societal needs, and a framework for more regional and coastal monitoring. This paper reviews the societal and scientific motivations, current status, and future directions of IndOOS, while also discussing the need for enhanced coastal, shelf, and regional observations. The challenges of sustainability and implementation are also addressed, including capacity building, best practices, and integration of resources. The utility of IndOOS ultimately depends on the identification of, and engagement with, end-users and decision-makers and on the practical accessibility and transparency of data for a range of products and for decision-making processes. Therefore we highlight current progress, issues and challenges related to end user engagement with IndOOS, as well as the needs of the data assimilation and modeling communities. Knowledge of the status of the Indian Ocean climate and ecosystems and predictability of its future, depends on a wide range of socio-economic and environmental data, a significant part of which is provided by IndOOS.",A Sustained Ocean Observing System in the Indian Ocean for Climate Related Scientific Knowledge and Societal Needs,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+555036,"No data are available on whether rising carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] or increased air temperature can alter the establishment and persistence of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) within a plant community following soil disturbance. To determine ragweed longevity, we exposed disturbed soil with a common seed bank population to an in situ temperature and [CO2] gradient along an urban-rural transect beginning in early 2002. No other consistent differences in meteorological variables (e.g. wind speed, humidity, PAR, tropospheric ozone) as a function of urbanization were documented over the course of the study (2002-2005). Above-ground measurements of biomass over this period demonstrated that ragweed along the transect responded to urban induced increases in [CO2]/temperature with peak biomass being observed at this location by the end of 2003. However, by the Fall of 2004, and continuing through 2005, urban ragweed populations had dwindled to a few plants. The temporal decline in ragweed populations was not associated with increased disease, herbivory or auto-allelopathy, but was part of a demographic reduction in the total number of annual plant species observed for the urban location. In a separate experiment, we showed that such a demographic shift is consistent with CO2/temperature induced increases in biomass and litter accumulation, with a subsequent reduction in germination/survival of annual plant species. Overall, these data indicate that [CO2]/temperature differences associated with urbanization may increase initial ragweed productivity and pollen production, but suggest that long-term, multi-year persistence of ragweed in the urban macro-environment may be dependent on other factors.",Establishment and persistence of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) in disturbed soil as a function of an urban-rural macro-environment,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3895202,"This paper is designed to present the challenges and obstacles faced in the use of a new technology for the plugging and de oiling of sections of unpiggable flowlines prior to decommissioning. Conventional methods of decommissioning subsea pipeline infrastructure are inherently very expensive with the mobilization and operation of DSV (Dive Support Vessel), equipment and personnel. In this case the only other viable option was to mobilise a DSV to hot tap the flowlines and circulate fluid from the platform before filling the line with cement. This operation would have incurred considerable expenditure so the operator sought a more cost effective solution. The solution deployed utilised an ultra lightweight, minaturised coiled tubing system which was deployable from the platform lower decks with minimal laydown area required. The system had the ability to traverse multiple bends (360° total), de-oil the line and deliver an expandable cement to plug the pipeline in a single operation. This paper will outline this new approach and will identify how this new technology can positively impact project economics as well as environmental and safety implications. It will also highlight the engineering problems encountered and resolved during this project. The innovative, unconventional approach to this project in the North Sea provides an alternative solution for operators to consider when planning pipeline decommissiong. The result of the operation will be outlined as well as the future of this new technology within the decommissioning sector. Cost reduction is an important topic in the current economic climate and this paper will conclude that this technology provided a suitable solution to the operator and at a reduced cost when compared to conventional solutions. It will also demonstrate how collaboration between companies within the industry has paid dividends to all involved during this project in line with Oil & Gas UK Economic Report 2014. © Copyright 2015, Society of Petroleum Engineers.",Cost reducing pipeline decommissioning technology,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+10758,"Long-term trends of temperature variations across the southern Andes (37 - 55degrees S) are examined using a combination of instrumental and tree-ring records. A critical appraisal of surface air temperature from station records is presented for southern South America during the 20th century. For the interval 1930 - 1990, three major patterns in temperature trends are identified. Stations along the Pacific coast between 37 and 43degreesS are characterized by negative trends in mean annual temperature with a marked cooling period from 1950 to the mid-1970s. A clear warming trend is observed in the southern stations (south of 46degreesS), which intensifies at higher latitudes. No temperature trends are detected for the stations on the Atlantic coast north of 45degreesS. In contrast to higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere where annual changes in temperature are dominated by winter trends, both positive and negative trends in southern South America are due to mostly changes in summer ( December to February) temperatures. Changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) around 1976 are felt in summer temperatures at most stations in the Pacific domain, starting a period with increased temperature across the southern Andes and at higher latitudes. Tree-ring records from upper-treeline were used to reconstruct past temperature fluctuations for the two dominant patterns over the southern Andes. These reconstructions extend back to 1640 and are based on composite tree-ring chronologies that were processed to retain as much low-frequency variance as possible. The resulting reconstructions for the northern and southern sectors of the southern Andes explain 55% and 45% of the temperature variance over the interval 1930 - 1989, respectively. Cross-spectral analysis of actual and reconstructed temperatures over the common interval 1930 - 1989, indicates that most of the explained variance is at periods >10 years in length. At periods >15 years, the squared coherency between actual and reconstructed temperatures ranges between 0.6 and 0.95 for both reconstructions. Consequently, these reconstructions are especially useful for studying multi-decennial temperature variations in the South American sector of the Southern Hemisphere over the past 360 years. As a result, it is possible to show that the temperatures during the 20th century have been anomalously warm across the southern Andes. The mean annual temperatures for the northern and southern sectors during the interval 1900 - 1990 are 0.53degreesC and 0.86degreesC above the 1640 - 1899 means, respectively. These findings placed the current warming in a longer historical perspective, and add new support for the existence of unprecedented 20th century warming over much of the globe. The rate of temperature increase from 1850 to 1920 was the highest over the past 360 years, a common feature observed in several proxy records from higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Local temperature regimes are affected by changes in planetary circulation, with in turn are linked to global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Therefore, we explored how temperature variations in the southern Andes since 1856 are related to large-scale SSTs on the South Pacific and South Atlantic Oceans. Spatial correlation patterns between the reconstructions and SSTs show that temperature variations in the northern sector of the southern Andes are strongly connected with SST anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Pacific. This spatial correlation pattern resembles the spatial signature of the PDO mode of SST variability over the South Pacific and is connected with the Pacific-South American (PSA) atmospheric pattern in the Southern Hemisphere. In contrast, temperature variations in the southern sector of the southern Andes are significantly correlated with SST anomalies over most of the South Atlantic, and in less degree, over the subtropical Pacific. This spatial correlation field regressed against SST resembles the 'Global Warming' mode of SST variability, which in turn, is linked to the leading mode of circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. Certainly, part of the temperature signal present in the reconstructions can be expressed as a linear combination of four orthogonal modes of SST variability. Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis, performed on SST across the South Pacific and South Atlantic Oceans, indicate that four discrete modes of SST variability explain a third, approximately, of total variance in temperature fluctuations across the southern Andes.",Large-scale temperature changes across the southern Andes: 20th-century variations in the context of the past 400 years,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1469518,"Climate extremes, such as drought and floods, are increasing and should be considered in ecosystem management plans. The effects of an extreme drought were studied in two estuaries of the Iberian coast, Minho and Mondego, by exploring fish recruitment, growth and production over four years. The two estuaries are located within an area with transitional climate, and differ considerably in size, availability of freshwater wetlands and freshwater inflow. Fishes from the Minho estuary, at higher latitude, generally had lower growth rates and later timing of recruitment. During the drought, freshwater inflow was severely reduced in both estuaries. The overall fish assemblage production in the Minho estuary decreased considerably, whereas in the Mondego estuary it showed an increase. However, the drought effects seemed highly species-specific and dependent on local geomorphology; the increase in the Mondego estuary was a result of an increase in a single species, whereas other species decreased or maintained similar production levels. Decreases in production in both estuaries were attributed to direct and indirect effects of changes in the freshwater inflow during the study period. This parameter should therefore be considered when undertaking management plans for transitional waters.","Multi-year comparisons of fish recruitment, growth and production in two drought-affected Iberian estuaries",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+442432,"Rapid climate change is happening worldwide and is affecting ecosystems processes as well as plant and animal abundances and distribution. However, the large climate variability observed in and and semi-arid regions often impairs the statistical detection of long-term trends using standard statistical methods, especially if one is primarily interested in specific components of the climate changes. Here we highlight how quantile regression overcomes some of the confounding effects of large climate variability in long-term rainfall data. For instance, we show how quantile regressions revealed that droughts worsened in Hwange National Park (Zimbabwe) during the course of the 20th century, a change that would not have been detected using simple linear regression. We briefly discuss the implications of our findings for the management of the park. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Detecting climate changes of concern in highly variable environments: Quantile regressions reveal that droughts worsen in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2348732,"Seagrasses are one of the most important coastal ecosystems since they promote organic matter flow, nutrient cycling, food availability and refuge. Until now, reports on damages caused by storms and hurricanes on seagrass beds are uncommon and highly variable. The seagrass meadows of the East end of Jardines de la Reina archipelago were surveyed from Nov. 29th to Dec. 5th of 2008, in order to determinate the effects from the passing of Hurricane Paloma: a category three storm on the Saffir-Simpsom scale. A rapid field assessment of the affected areas was carried out using the manta tow technique. In six sites, seagrass was quantitatively evaluated using a 15cm diameter core (four sampling units per site) and shoot density was calculated. Remote sensing techniques were used to estimate seagrass cover. To estimate the percentage of affected areas, a Region of Interest (ROI) was first created over a Landsat image. The percentage of seagrass affected within the ROI was estimated through direct georeferentiation of the contours of the damaged area and with a comparison to the total seagrass extension. To find possible explanations for damages, a false colour image was created using the near infrared band, to highlight the differences between emerged and submerged zones. The direction of winds was estimated using ArcGis 9.2 creating circular buffers, from the centre of the hurricane and generating lines tangent to the buffers. Seagrass in the region was dominated by the angiosperm Thalassia testudinum. Regional mean density was 1 321 +/- 721 shoots/m(2), a value regarded as high for the Caribbean area. Seagrass meadows were partly affected by sediment accumulation on the shoots of T testudinum and uprooting rhizomes. The 7.6km(2) disturbed area represented 1% of the total seagrass area. Other sites, closer to the centre of the hurricane, did not show any damages on the marine vegetation. The keys location with respect to the hurricane track was the most likely cause of the effects. To the North of the affected area there is an opening among the keys where the generation of waves, currents and turbulence could have occurred. Three years after the hurricane event, both vegetation cover loss and silt re-colonization by macroalgae species were observed within the affected area, by showing a patchily-vegetated landscape. This site is currently undergoing a temporal succession whose assessment demands a monitoring scheme, that will provide interesting information to document its future evolution and responsiveness against upcoming natural or anthropogenic events.","Hurricane Paloma's effects on seagrasses along Jardines de la Reina archipelago, Cuba",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+239691,"The objectives of this paper are to summarise: (1) observed 20th-century and projected 21st-century changes in key components of the Arctic climate system and (2) probable impacts on the Arctic marine environment, with emphasis on the vulnerabilities of marine and sea ice-based ecosystems. Multi-decadal to century-scale observational data sets of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice indicate that the two pronounced 20th-century warming events, both amplified in the Arctic, were linked to sea-ice variability. Arctic sea-ice coverage has decreased similar to 8% in the past quarter century, with record- and near-record low summer ice in observed recent years. A set of coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean global model simulations quantifies the expected changes in Arctic temperature and sea ice through the twenty-first century. Projected are polar-amplified increases in SAT and reductions in sea ice, with a predominantly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer projected before the end of this century. A range of potential consequences of Arctic warming and a shrinking ice cover are foreseen. First, exposure of vast areas of the Arctic Ocean would greatly alter the coastal and shelf marine environment. Second, broad changes in the marine and sea ice-based ecosystem-e.g. changes in plankton due to less ice and greater inflow of melt water-could negatively impact Arctic and sub-Arctic marine biodiversity, not least the vulnerable ice-based mammals such as polar bears. Third, there would be a larger open area for potential Arctic fisheries, as well as increased offshore activities and marine transportation, including the Northern Sea Route north of Siberia. Changes in the physical environment of the Arctic Ocean are thus expected to be dramatic, and although projecting ecosystem changes several decades into twenty-first century is challenging, the impact of diminishing sea ice on Arctic marine and sea ice-based ecosystems will certainly be transformative.",Critical vulnerabilities of marine and sea ice-based ecosystems in the high Arctic,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+746615,"Climate change impacts may drive affected populations to migrate. However, migration decisions in response to climate change could have broader effects on population dynamics in affected regions. Here, I model the effect of climate change on fertility rates, income inequality, and human capital accumulation in developing countries, focusing on the instrumental role of migration as a key adaptation mechanism. In particular, I investigate how climate-induced migration in developing countries will affect those who do not migrate. I find that holding all else constant, climate change raises the return on acquiring skills, because skilled individuals have greater migration opportunities than unskilled individuals. In response to this change in incentives, parents may choose to invest more in education and have fewer children. This may ultimately reduce local income inequality, partially offsetting some of the damages of climate change for low-income individuals who do not migrate.",Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2361918,"The influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the north Indian temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) change patterns were evaluated during the monsoon season across the last century. Trends and shifts in 146 districts were assessed using nonparametric statistical tests. To quantify their temporal variation, the concept of apportionment entropy was applied to both the annual and seasonal scales. Results suggest that the El Nino years played a greater role in causing hydro-climatological changes compared to the La Nina or neutral years. El Nino was more influential in causing shifts compared to trends. For certain districts, a phase change in ENSO reversed the trend/shift direction. The century-wide analysis suggested that the vast majority of the districts experienced significant decreasing trends/shifts in temperature and PET. However, precipitation experienced both increasing and decreasing trends/shifts based on the location of the districts. Entropy results suggested a lower apportionment of precipitation compared to the other variables, indicating an intermittent deviation of precipitation pattern from the generic trend. The findings may help understand the effects of ENSO on the hydro-climatological variables during the monsoon season. Practitioners may find the results useful as monsoon is the most important season for India causing climate extremes.","Effects of ENSO on Temperature, Precipitation, and Potential Evapotranspiration of North India's Monsoon: An Analysis of Trend and Entropy",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+417536,"The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.",Impact of regional climate change on human health,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+633462,"The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods, and snowstorms, were also investigated for the same period. The correlations between catastrophic events and the extreme indices were examined. The results show that the Mongolian Plateau experienced an asymmetric warming trend. Both the cold extremes and warm extremes showed greater warming at night than in the daytime. The spatial changes in significant trends showed a good homogeneity and consistency in Inner Mongolia. Changes in the precipitation extremes were not as obvious as those in the temperature extremes. The spatial distributions in changes of precipitation extremes were complex. Adecreasing trend was shown for total precipitation from west to east as based on the spatial distribution of decadal trends. Drought was the most serious extreme disaster, and prolonged drought for longer than 3 yr occurred about every 7-11 yr. An increasing trend in the disaster area was apparent for flood events from 1951 to 2012. A decreasing trend was observed for the maximum depth of snowfall from 1951 to 2012, with a decreased average maximum depth of 10 mm from the 1990s.",Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1516156,"Among the key problems in atmospheric and hydrologic sciences are the modeling of the interaction between the atmosphere and land surface hydrology while also quantifying the surface/subsurface hydrologic flow processes both in vertical and lateral directions, and modeling the heterogeneity in surface and subsurface hydrologic processes. Meanwhile, in standard water resources engineering practice, the planning and management of the water resources is performed over the geographical region of a watershed. To address these issues, a model of coupled atmospheric-hydrologic processes at the watershed scale, the Watershed Environmental Hydrology Hydro-Climate Model (WEHY-HCM), has been developed. The atmospheric model PSU/NCAR MM5 (Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model) was coupled to the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer to form the WEHY-HCM. The WEHY-HCM is especially useful for producing nonexistent atmospheric data as input to the modeling of surface and subsurface hydrologic processes at sparsely gauged or ungauged watersheds. The continuously changing state of the atmospheric boundary layer may be essential information in the computation of evapotranspiration (ET) rates and other land surface fluxes. Because such land surface fluxes are the result of the interaction of land surface hydrologic processes with atmospheric processes, their realistic estimation necessitates the coupled modeling of these processes, as is done in the WEHY-HCM. The model is also useful at watersheds that have heterogeneous topography and land use/cover because the main model components are based on areally averaged, scalable conservation equations and parameters in order to quantify and account for the effect of heterogeneity within watersheds. In this paper, the modeling of an integrated system of atmospheric processes aloft coupled with atmospheric boundary layer processes, land surface processes, and surface and subsurface hydrologic processes is described at the scale of a watershed within the framework of WEHY-HCM.",WEHY-HCM for Modeling Interactive Atmospheric-Hydrologic Processes at Watershed Scale. I: Model Description,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+326016,"Water scarcity is one of the most challenging issues in arid and semi-arid regions. In the Yellow River basin, rapid growth of population, urbanization, and industrialization have caused ever-increasing competition for water. This study was conducted to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on mean annual runoff in the Yellow River basin under different climate change scenarios projected by the Hadley Centre's third-generation general circulation model (HadCM3) using an evaporation ratio function of the aridity index. The results showed that annual runoff was more sensitive to change in precipitation than to change in evaporation. Simulations using HadCM3 scenarios A2 and B2 indicated that the changes in annual runoff compared to 30-year average runoff for each region, which varied from region to region, ranged from -34.1% to 49.6%. In general, the potential changes in annual runoff were greater in the middle and down reaches of the Yellow River basin. For the Yellow River basin as a whole, the mean annual runoff increased up to 2.2%, 12.3%, and 11.4% for scenario A2, and the changes were 8.4%, -0.1%, and 5.3% for scenario B2 by the years 2020, 2050, and 2080, respectively. However, the increase in future annual runoff will be insufficient to meet projected water demands of the Yellow River Basin. Proper water management and water conservation technologies will need to be considered for the coming century to avoid water shortages. The expected increases in runoff require that more attention will be given to soil and water conservation practices such as vegetation and check-dam construction.",Potential effects of climate change on runoff in the Yellow River basin of China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2361782,"In an era of coral reef degradation, our knowledge of ecological patterns in reefs is biased towards large conspicuous organisms. The majority of biodiversity, however, inhabits small cryptic spaces within the framework of the reef. To assess this biodiverse community, which we term the 'reef cryptobiome', we deployed 87 autonomous reef monitoring structures (ARMS), on 22 reefs across 16 degrees latitude of the Red Sea. Combining ARMS with metabarcoding of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I gene, we reveal a rich community, including the identification of 14 metazoan phyla within 10 416 operational taxonomic units (OTUs). While mobile and sessile subsets were similarly structured along the basin, the main environmental driver was different (particulate organic matter and sea surface temperature, respectively). Distribution patterns of OTUs showed that only 1.5% were present in all reefs, while over half were present in a single reef. On both local and regional scales, the majority of OTUs were rare. The high heterogeneity in community patterns of the reef cryptobiome has implications for reef conservation. Understanding the biodiversity patterns of this critical component of reef functioning will enable a sound knowledge of how coral reefs will respond to future anthropogenic impacts.",Beyond the visual: using metabarcoding to characterize the hidden reef cryptobiome,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+556294,"The relationship between climatic, hydrological and water quality parameters of the lower Mekong River flowing through four different countries (Thailand, Cambodia, Lao PDR and Vietnam) was studied. The Mekong River Commission (MRC) secondary data of climatic and hydrological parameters included precipitation, evaporation, average air temperatures, mean water level and discharge flow. Water quality parameters consisted of TSS, NO3-, PO43-, DO, pH, conductivity, Ca, Mg, Na, K, alkalinity, Cl, SO42-, Fe, TP, Si and COD. Pearson's correlation was used to determine their relationship. The results reveal that the correlations of climatic, hydrological and water quality parameters in those four countries located along the lower Mekong River had the same trend. Precipitation had fair positive correlations with mean water level (ranging 0.375-0.661), discharge flow (ranging 0.526-0.659) and mean air temperature (ranging 0.515-0.621), however had weak negative correlation with evaporation (ranging 0.169-0.468). Concerning relationship with water quality, the results show that TSS, NO3-, PO43-, TP and COD had weak to fair positive correlations with precipitation, mean water level, discharge flow. However, DO, pH, conductivity, Ca, Mg, Na, K, alkalinity, Cl, SO42- and Si had fair to strong negative correlations with all hydrological parameters. Finally, TSS, alkalinity and conductivity were proposed as sensitive water quality parameters for monitoring impacts of changing climate in the lower Mekong River. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",The relationship of climatic and hydrological parameters to surface water quality in the lower Mekong River,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+513639,"Simulated daily discharge derived front a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general Circulation model was used to investigate Future projections of extremes in river discharge Under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.",Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+5570,"The south-eastern coast of Australia is recognised as a climate-change hotspot; warming over the past 50 years has exceeded the global average. The marine fauna in the region is responding to this warming with several subtidal species showing a pole-ward range expansion. We provide the first evidence for a similar response in intertidal invertebrates, on the basis of surveys from the eastern coast of Tasmania in 2007-2008 that replicated a set from the 1950s. Of 29 species used in the analysis, 55% were detected further south than in the 1950s. The average minimum movement of the southern (pole-ward) range edges was 116 km (range 20-250 km), representing a rate of similar to 29 km per decade for a warming rate of 0.22 degrees C per decade. Barnacles and gastropods showed the greatest range extensions, with one species absent from Tasmania in the 1950s, the giant rock barnacle, Austromegabalanus nigrescens, now recorded widely along the eastern coast of Tasmania. The distance that the southern (pole-ward) range limit moved south for each species was not related to a qualitative dispersal potential index. Local extinction of some species in north-eastern Tasmania may also occur in the coming decades.",Climate-driven range changes in Tasmanian intertidal fauna,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+163856,"Aims: An analysis of Climate data between 1950 and 2006 in the Herault department, situated in the Mediterranean of France is presented. Methods and results: Data presented include the evolution of mean annual and seasonal temperatures. the Huglin index, total solar radiation. night freshness index the distribution and efficiency of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (pET). Results showed an increase in mean annual temperatures of +1.3 degrees C between 1980 and 2006 and an increase in the mean PET which was 900 mm/year since 1999. Also, harvest dates advanced by up to three weeks and sugar concentrations at harvest increased by up to 1.5% potential alcohol. Conclusion: The indicawi show that ill this area certain climatic parameter, have evolved over the period studied. Changes are observable in some of the parameters (notably temperature) for the last 30 years whereas others have evolved only in the past few years (e.g. pET). Therefore it is necessary to be circumspect in drawing conclusions on climate change in the area, particularly as regards the possible consequences for viticulture. However, at the plot level, it is clear that irrigation of the vines is becoming increasingly necessary in this region. Significance and impact of study: Climate is a major factor in vine cultivation and in the understanding of viticultural terroirs and wine typicality. The climate trends observed over a 50-year period are discussed in the viticultural context of a Mediterranean re,,ion. However, the interaction between climate change and technical progress in viticulture and oenology complicate the analysis over the time frame under consideration.",Climate trends in a specific Mediterranean viticultural area between 1950 and 2006,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+435257,"We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning.",Relationships between Human Population Density and Burned Area at Continental and Global Scales,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+628457,"Projections of changes in climate extremes are critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Modeling advances now provide the opportunity of utilizing global general circulation models (GCMs) for projections of extreme temperature and precipitation indicators. We analyze historical and future simulations of ten such indicators as derived from an ensemble of 9 GCMs contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), under a range of emissions scenarios. Our focus is on the consensus from the GCM ensemble, in terms of direction and significance of the changes, at the global average and geographical scale. The climate extremes described by the ten indices range from heat-wave frequency to frost-day occurrence, from dry-spell length to heavy rainfall amounts. Historical trends generally agree with previous observational studies, providing a basic sense of reliability for the GCM simulations. Individual model projections for the 21st century across the three scenarios examined are in agreement in showing greater temperature extremes consistent with a warmer climate. For any specific temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models and across scenarios, while substantial differences appear in the relative magnitude of the trends under different emissions rates. Depictions of a wetter world and greater precipitation intensity emerge unequivocally in the global averages of most of the precipitation indices. However, consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered. This analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in climate extremes from the IPCC-AR4 model ensemble, and has significant implications with regard to climate projections for impact assessments.",Going to the extremes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+790804,"Recent studies have revealed that the effect of temperature on mortality has changed over time. One of the major contributors to the changes is adaptation. We aimed to understand the relationship between elderly mortality and temperature anomaly using the temperature deviation index (TDI), which considers exposure history. Summertime (May to September) mortality data from 1996 to 2014 and meteorological data from 1971 to 2014 were obtained for 16 regions covering South Korea. The TDI was defined as the target day's temperature abnormality compared to previous 25 years' apparent temperature (AT). The relationship between the TDI and elderly mortality for each region was examined by generalized linear modeling with Poisson distribution. Pooled estimates were computed to yield a national effect estimate. Stratified analyses were performed using the percentiles of AT and TDI. Most regions showed positive linear associations, and the associations ranged from 0.4 to 4.3% increase per unit increase of the TDI. In the pooled analyses, a unit increase of the TDI was associated with a 1.4% increase (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93-1.87) in elderly mortality. In the stratified analysis, the relationship between the TDI and elderly mortality was significant at or above the 75th percentile of AT (1.32% increase; 95% CI 0.47-2.22). We suggest a positive association between the TDI and elderly mortality in South Korea. The association observed particularly in the highest percentile of AT in the stratified analysis suggests independent effects of temperature anomaly in addition to those of absolute AT.",Estimation of abnormal temperature effects on elderly mortality in South Korea using the temperature deviation index,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+286662,"The relationship between climate change and water resources in the Tarim River was analyzed by combining the temperature, precipitation and streamflow data from 1957 to 2007 from the four headstreams of the Tarim River (Aksu, Hotan, Yarkant and Kaidu rivers) in the study area. The long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation and streamflow were studied using correlation analysis and partial correlations analysis. Holt double exponential smoothing was used to fit the trends between streamflow and the two climatic factors of Aksu River, Hotan River and Yarkant River. The streamflow of the main stream was forecasted by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) modeling by the method of time series analysis. The results show that the temperature experienced a trend of monotonic rising. The precipitation and runoff of the four headstreams of the Tarim River increased, while the inflow to the headstreams increased and the inflow into the Tarim River decreased. Changes of temperature and precipitation had a significant impact on runoff into the four headstreams of the Tarim River: the precipitation had a positive impact on water flow in the Aksu River, Hotan River and Kaidu River, while the temperature had a positive impact on water flow in the Yarkant River. The results of Holt double exponential smoothing showed that the correlation between the independent variable and dependent variable was relatively close after the model was fitted to the headstreams, of which only the runoff and temperature values of Hotan River showed a significant negative correlation. The forecasts by the ARIMA model for 50 years of annual runoff at the Allar station followed the pattern of the measured data for the same years. The short-term forecasts beyond the observed series adequately captured the pattern in the data and showed a decreasing tendency in the Tarim River flow of 3.07% every ten years. The results showed that global warming accelerated the water recharge process of the headstreams. The special hydrological characteristics of the arid area determined the significant association between streamflow and the two climatic factors studied. Strong glacier retreat is likely to bring a series of flood disasters within the study area.",Impacts of temperature and precipitation on runoff in the Tarim River during the past 50 years,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1061617,"We propose a non-parametric procedure for estimating systemic co-jumps and independent idiosyncratic jumps for 35 stock markets, and study news associated with these jumps as reported in Factiva and Bloomberg from 1988 to 2014. Our results suggest that it is important to distinguish between systemic co-jumps and idiosyncratic jumps. We find both types of jumps have important implications for home-bias investors, while idiosyncratic jumps have economically significant impact on portfolio weights for emerging markets. Our news analysis suggests systemic jumps are typically caused by currency crises, sectoral failure, liquidity issues, and deteriorating economic climate, while idiosyncratic jumps are usually caused by political unrest, currency instability, and large firm effects on small economies. In fact, many of the idiosyncratic jumps share the same origin although different stock markets experienced the impact differently at different times. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",The reality of stock market jumps diversification,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+90613,"Severe flood events have occurred in many Swiss catchments; in the last decade. Have flood frequencies changed over the last 150 years in Switzerland? And is the high frequency observed recently a nationwide phenomenon? To answer these questions, we analysed streamflow data from 83 stations with a record length of up to 105 years, complemented with data from historical floods dating back to 1850. Multiple trend analysis of the annual flood series showed only few negative trends. The number of stations with positive trends was especially high, when the period of 2001-2007 was included into the analysis. The temporal and spatial distribution of flood events with return periods larger than 10 years, and the large scale flood events of the last 150 years were analysed as well. Periods rich in floods alternated with periods poor in floods, showing large regional differences especially between northern and southern Switzerland. The second half of the 19th century was rich in floods, both in northern as well as in southern Switzerland. In southern Switzerland and the northern Grisons, flood frequency was high again between 1940 and 1960, a period poor in floods in northern Switzerland. Here flood frequencies increased again only after 1968. The recent increase in flood frequency and discharge has been most pronounced along the central and western northern flank of the Alps. Our data suggest that, since 1900, periods with many floods in northern Switzerland have corresponded to periods with few floods in southern Switzerland and vice versa. The differences also suggest that changes in large scale atmospheric circulation might be responsible for the fluctuations in flood frequency. The fluctuations in flood frequency should be considered in defining design floods for flood protection measures. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.",More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in Switzerland since 1850,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1421513,"Understanding what drives the geographic variation of species richness across the globe is a fundamental goal of ecology and biogeography. Environmental variables have been considered as drivers of global diversity patterns but there is no consensus among ecologists on what environmental variables are primary drivers of the geographic variation of species richness. Here, I examine the relationship of woody plant species richness at a regional scale in China with sixteen environmental variables representing energy availability, water availability, energy-water balance, seasonality, and habitat heterogeneity. I found that temperature seasonality is the best predictor of woody species richness in China. Other important environmental variables include annual precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest month, and potential evapotranspiration. The best model explains 85% of the variation in woody plant species richness at the regional scale in China.",Environmental Determinants of Woody Plant Diversity at a Regional Scale in China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+5655,"Anthropogenic climate change has altered many ecosystem processes in the Arctic tundra and may have resulted in unprecedented fire activity. Evaluating the significance of recent fires requires knowledge from the paleofire record because observational data in the Arctic span only several decades, much shorter than the natural fire rotation in Arctic tundra regions. Here we report results of charcoal analysis on lake sediments from four Alaskan lakes to infer the broad spatial and temporal patterns of tundra-fire occurrence over the past 35 000 years. Background charcoal accumulation rates are low in all records (range is 0-0.05 pieces cm(-2) yr(-1)), suggesting minimal biomass burning across our study areas. Charcoal peak analysis reveals that the mean fire-return interval (FRI; years between consecutive fire events) ranged from ca. 1650 to 6050 years at our sites, and that the most recent fire events occurred from ca. 880 to 7030 years ago, except for the CE 2007 Anaktuvuk River Fire. These mean FRI estimates are longer than the fire rotation periods estimated for the past 63 years in the areas surrounding three of the four study lakes. This result suggests that the frequency of tundra burning was higher over the recent past compared to the late Quaternary in some tundra regions. However, the ranges of FRI estimates from our paleofire records overlap with the expected values based on fire-rotation-period estimates from the observational fire data, and the differences are statistically insignificant. Together with previous tundra-fire reconstructions, these data suggest that the rate of tundra burning was spatially variable and that fires were extremely rare in our study areas throughout the late Quaternary. Given the rarity of tundra burning over multiple millennia in our study areas and the pronounced effects of fire on tundra ecosystem processes such as carbon cycling, dramatic tundra ecosystem changes are expected if anthropogenic climate change leads to more frequent tundra fires.",Spatiotemporal patterns of tundra fires: late-Quaternary charcoal records from Alaska,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+693073,"Mangrove ecosystems are threatened by climate change. We review the state of knowledge of mangrove Vulnerability and responses to predicted climate change and consider adaptation options. Based on available evidence, of all the climate change outcomes, relative sea-level rise may be the greatest threat to mangroves. Most mangrove sediment surface elevations are not keeping pace with sea-level rise, although longer term studies from a larger number of regions are needed. Rising sea-level will have the greatest impact oil mangroves experiencing net lowering in sediment elevation, where there is limited area for landward migration. The Pacific Islands mangroves have been demonstrated to be at high risk of substantial reductions. There is less certainly over other climate change outcomes and mangrove responses. More research is needed on assessment methods and standard indicators of change in response to effects from climate change, while regional monitoring networks are needed to observe these responses to enable educated adaptation. Adaptation measures can offset anticipated mangrove losses and improve resistance and resilience to climate change. Coastal planning can adapt to facilitate mangrove migration with sea-level rise. Management of activities within the catchment that affect long-term trends in the mangrove sediment elevation, better management of other stressors oil mangroves, rehabilitation of degraded mangrove areas, and increases in systems of strategically designed protected area networks that include mangroves and functionally linked ecosystems through representation, replication and refugia, are additional adaptation options. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: A review,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+573597,"Tropical dry forests are among the world's most imperiled biomes, and most long-lived and large-bodied animals that inhabit tropical dry forests persist in small, fragmented populations. Long-term monitoring is necessary for understanding the extent to which such populations can cope with changing climate conditions and recover after the elimination of human disturbances. We investigated how conservation measures, local rainfall patterns, and large-scale climate oscillations have affected the population dynamics of white-faced capuchins (Cebus capucinus) in a Costa Rican tropical dry forest over a 42-year period after the elimination of most human disturbances. The population's rapid initial growth and later stabilization suggests that it was below the habitat's carrying capacity at the time of the conservation area's establishment. Management practices, such as aggressive fire suppression, may have played an important role in promoting this growth. Rainfall patterns were strongly coupled with phases and intensity conditions of the El Milo Southern Oscillation. The population experienced two distinct growth phases after the conservation area's establishment, a period of rapid growth through the 1980s and 1990s and a subsequent period of stability from about 2000 to the present. El Nifio-like conditions in the three years preceding a census year were associated with declines in reproductive output and/or offspring mortality during the rapid growth phase. The sensitivity of this ecosystem to global climatic phenomena suggests that some animals will be negatively affected if drought years become more common as the global climate warms. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Climate oscillations and conservation measures regulate white-faced capuchin population growth and demography in a regenerating tropical dry forest in Costa Rica,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+442911,Climate change raises particular challenges for under-performing water and sewerage utilities. A recent review for the World Bank explored some of the likely impacts of climate change on utilities in the Eastern Europe and Central Asian region. Climate change is likely to have serious implications for the region's water resources particularly because of the increasing incidence of severe precipitation events (floods and droughts). However the review found that the investment requirements needed simply to sustain service levels and reach remaining unserved customers may be a more pressing challenge. This finding is likely to be equally relevant in many other regions. The review concluded that: future investments should focus on systems which are as flexible and decentralized as possible; ongoing efforts to strengthen utility operations should not be abandoned; and greater investment should be made in technical training and capacity building to meet the challenges of the future. © 2009 Practical Action Publishing.,Do under-performing water utilities need to adapt to climate change? Experience from Eastern Europe and Central Asia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+561073,"Taking the source region of the Yellow River as a study area and based on the data from Madoi Meteorological Station and Huangheyan Hydrological Station covering the period 1955-2005, this paper analyses the changing trends of surface water resources, climate and frozen ground and reveals their causes. Results show that there exist frequent fluctuations from high to low water flow in the 51-year period. In general, the discharge has shown a declining trend in the 51 years especially since the 1990s. The annual distribution shows one peak which, year on year is getting smaller. (1) Precipitation has a significant and sustained influence on discharge. (2) A sharp rise of temperature resulted in the increase of evaporation and the decrease of discharge, which has a greater effect than on ice-snow melting. (3) Frozen ground tends to be degraded markedly. There is a significant positive correlation between the permafrost thickness and the discharge. (4) Evaporation rates are significantly increasing, leading to the decrease of discharge. 70% of the discharge reduction resulted from climate change, and the remaining 30% may have been caused by human activities.",Influencing factors of water resources in the source region of the Yellow River,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1496410,"During the February 1981 cruise FIBEX MD-25 between 30-50 degrees E and 61-64 degrees S, hydrography showed the presence of two gyres, confirmed by the geostrophic circulation relative to 1000 m from Levitus climatology, at the borders of these gyres concentrations of highly morphologically differentiated krill were found. Gaussian component analysis of krill samples, pooled by sectors, showed three cohorts of Euphausia superba in the western sector and one in the eastern sector. Across the sampling area, Thysanoessa mactura and E. superba occurred at separate stations. Analysis of cohorts in T macrura separated two size groups in both the western and the eastern sectors. The use of a Differentiation Index (D.I.) [Farber-Lorda, J., 1990. Somatic length relationships and ontogenetic morphometric differentiation of Euphausia superba and Thysanoessa macrura of the southwest Indian Ocean during summer (February 1981). Deep-Sea Res. 37,1135-1143.], based on somatic lengths, allows studying certain morphological differences within the populations sampled. Morphologically different and bigger males 11 (D.I. from 2.8 to 3.5) were present only in the southern transect while smaller males I (D.I. from 3.5 to 5.0) were present over the entire area. Biochemical composition of both species showed significant differences among stations for protein, lipids, and carbohydrates. A significant difference in lipid content was found between males I, and males II. For T macrura, percentage of lipid content in mature animals was much higher than that in E. superba. The D.I. size distribution showed that when populations of E. superba were highly differentiated (corresponding to mature animals) in morphology, lipid content was high, and they were located near a gyre. Differences in morphometry can influence distribution of the species, because different developing stages have different swimming capacities. It is shown that, together with hydrography and trophic conditions, lipid content and morphometry of krill populations, are different but complementary aspects that help to understand krill ecology and distribution. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Morphological and biochemical differentiation in Antarctic krill,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+345768,In this study a regional climate model is employed to expand on modeling experiments of future climate change to address issues of 1) the timing and length of the growing season and 2) the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures and precipitation. The study focuses on California as a climatically complex region that is vulnerable to changes in water supply and delivery. Statistically significant increases in daily minimum and maximum temperatures occur with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Increases in daily temperatures lead to increases in prolonged heat waves and length of the growing season. Changes in total and extreme precipitation vary depending upon geographic location.,Regional changes in extreme climatic events: A future climate scenario,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3956994,"Experimental studies of the catalytic ignition of hydrogen-oxygen were performed. A spherical platinum of 1.5 mm in diameter was used for catalyst and the atmospheric pressure was 0.1 MPa. The parameters were equivalence ratio and dilution ratio. Dilution ratio is mole fraction of nitrogen. The surface temperature was measured with thermocouple and the time histories of surface temperature show an inflection point. The catalytic ignition temperature is defined as the temperature at the inflection point. The catalytic ignition temperature was increased with dilution ratio when equivalence ratio was constant. The effect of dilution ratio was explained well with adsorption rate of reactants. If equivalence ratio was less than 0.1, the catalytic ignition temperature was decreased with equivalence ratio increase, and was increased with equivalence ratio if equivalence ratio was more than 0.2. The desorption of adsorbed hydrogen should be considered to explain the effect of equivalence ratio.",The effects of dilution ratio and equivalence ratio on catalytic ignition of hydrogen-oxygen over platinum catalyst,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+21611,"Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981-2010) to the future (2070-2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.",Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1283301,"The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems has been in the spotlight for the past three decades. Climate change is generally considered to be a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Vegetation indices can be used to detect shifts in ecosystem phenology and climate change in mountain regions while satellite imagery can play an important role in this process. However, what has remained problematic is determining the extent to which ecosystem phenology is affected by climate change under increasingly warming conditions. In this paper, we use climate and vegetation indices that were derived from satellite data to investigate the link between ecosystem phenology and climate change in the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. The time series for climate indices as well as those for gridded precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in order to determine climate shifts, and concomitant changes in vegetation health were assessed in the resultant epochs using vegetation indices. The results indicate that vegetation indices should only be used to assess trends in climate change under relatively pristine conditions, where human influence is limited. This knowledge is important for designing climate change monitoring strategies that are based on ecosystem phenology and vegetation health.",Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of climate change on vegetation health in the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+774284,"Ectothermic species are strongly affected by thermal changes. To assess the viability of these species under climate change constraints, we need to quantify the sensitivity of their life history traits to temperature. The loggerhead marine turtle (Caretta caretta) nests regularly in the Oriental Basin of the Mediterranean Sea. The different populations are separated because of time (< 12,000 yrs) and very different thermal habitats; it is hotter on the southern coast (Libya) than on the northern ones (Cyprus, Greece, and Turkey). Patterns of embryo growth response to incubation temperatures have been searched for these 2 populations. We found that both populations have similar thermal reaction norms for embryonic growth rate. This highlights that 12,000 yrs is not enough time for this species to adapt to specific thermal habitats and raises the question of the persistence of these populations in the context of rapid climate change.","Embryonic Growth Rate Thermal Reaction Norm of Mediterranean Caretta caretta Embryos from Two Different Thermal Habitats, Turkey and Libya",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+796679,"Food security and climate change are two pressing issues shaping the future of tropical land use. Brazil, home to abundant land that is rich in carbon, water, and biodiversity and often cleared for agropastoral and renewable energy purposes, is the ideal location for studying socioeconomic and environmental trade-offs of land use dynamics. Here, I use recent (2000-2016) land-use land-cover change dynamics in the established agricultural states of Mato Grosso and Goias to demonstrate how incentivizing intensive agricultural practices and improving degraded pastures may be a means by which Brazil can increase agricultural production while conserving the remainder of the Cerrado. I then discuss these outcomes with regard to agricultural expansion in the agricultural frontier region of Matopiba and briefly highlight contextual elements that need to be considered by other developing tropical countries looking toward Brazil as a model for agricultural and economic development.",Agricultural Intensification Can Preserve the Brazilian Cerrado: Applying Lessons From Mato Grosso and Goias to Brazil's Last Agricultural Frontier,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1629449,"Mortality and physiological responses in brown trout (Salmo trutta) were studied during spring snow melt in six streams in northern Sweden that differed in concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and pH declines. Data from these streams were used to create an empirical model for predicting fish responses (mortality and physiological disturbances) in DOC-rich streams using readily accessible water chemistry parameters. The results suggest that fish in these systems can tolerate higher acidity and inorganic aluminium levels than fish in low DOC streams. But even with the relatively low contemporary deposition load, anthropogenic deposition can cause fish mortality in the most acid-sensitive surface waters in northern Sweden during spring flood. However, the results suggests that it is only in streams with high levels of organically complexed aluminium in combination with a natural pH decline to below 5.0 during the spring where current sulphur deposition can cause irreversible damage to brown trout in the region. This study support earlier studies suggesting that DOC has an ameliorating effect on physiological disturbances in humic waters but the study also shows that surviving fish recover physiologically when the water quality returns to less toxic conditions following a toxic high flow period. The physiological response under natural, pre-industrial conditions was also estimated. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Survival of brown trout during spring flood in DOC-rich streams in northern Sweden: the effect of present acid deposition and modelled pre-industrial water quality,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+310405,"The relationship between regional precipitation change and warming is an important open issue in climate change physical science. Because precipitation in China has strong sensitivity to warming, quantitative assessment and projection on the responses of precipitation and its extremes in a warming world are crucial for better understanding of regional climate change and helpful for regional adaption to climate change. For this reason, based on simulations of 24 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study assesses the ability of the models in simulating the responses of annual mean precipitation and its extremes to warming over China and its subregions, and then projects their change under the RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 scenarios that represent respectively a medium-low and high radiative forcing. The annual mean precipitation is defined as the total amount of precipitation from January to December. The precipitation extremes are measured by the R95p (very wet days) and R99p (extremely wet days) indices, which are defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). According to the definition of ETCCDI, the R95p and R99p refer to annual total precipitation when the daily precipitation exceeds the 95th and the 99th percentile of the wet day precipitation, respectively. Eight subregions determined by administrative boundaries and societal and geographical conditions, i. e., NEC(Northeast China), NC(North China), EC (East China), CC (Central China), SC (South China), SWC1 (Tibetan Plateau), SWC2(Southwest China), and NWC(Northwest China), are used in this study. The model performance is validated through the comparison for the time period from 1961 to 2005 between the historical simulation and the gridding observation dataset with a horizontal resolution of 0. 25 degrees X 0. 25 degrees in latitude and longitude. Quantitative analysis shows that the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (MME) can generally capture the spatial features of the temperature, mean precipitation and precipitation extremes as well as the relationship of precipitation and its extremes with temperature over China. However, it underestimates the response of mean precipitation while overestimates the response of precipitation extremes over China region in historical period. The CMIP5 MME also has some abilities in reproducing the responses of the mean precipitation and its extremes to the warming over the subregions of China, and better performance can be found for the precipitation extremes. Under the RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 scenarios, concurrent with the temperature rising, the mean precipitation and precipitation extremes are projected to increase consistently over China. As the regional mean temperature rises by 1 degrees C, the mean precipitation will increase by 3. 5% and 2. 4%, and the R95p will increase by 8. 0% and 11., respectively. The response of R99p is much more sensitive, respectively with an increase of 15. 3% and 21. 6%. For the subregions of China, they all show positive response and the regional difference will decrease in the future. Moreover, the sensitivity of the precipitation extremes to the warming is higher than that of the mean precipitation. The stronger the precipitation extreme is, the higher sensitivity it will have. Besides, the response of the mean precipitation to the warming is larger in Northern China than in Southern China. The largest increases in R95p and R99p are projected in the Tibetan Plateau and Southwest China, indicating an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and floods.",Response of precipitation and its extremes over China to warming: CMIP5 simulation and projection,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2502972,"Several studies have examined the relationship of high and low air temperatures to cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic. Much less is understood about heat-/cold-related cardiovascular morbidity and possible regional differences. This paper compares the effects of warm and cold days on excess mortality and morbidity for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in the city of Prague and a rural region of southern Bohemia during 1994-2009. Population size and age structure are similar in the two regions. The results are evaluated for selected population groups (men and women). Excess mortality (number of deaths) and morbidity (number of hospital admissions) were determined as differences between observed and expected daily values, the latter being adjusted for long-term changes, annual and weekly cycles, and epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. Generally higher relative excess CVD mortality on warm days than on cold days was identified in both regions. In contrast to mortality, weak excess CVD morbidity was observed for both warm and cold days. Different responses of individual CVDs to heat versus cold stress may be caused by the different nature of each CVD and different physiological processes induced by heat or cold stress. The slight differences between Prague and southern Bohemia in response to heat versus cold stress suggest the possible influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors such as the effects of urban heat island and exposure to air pollution, lifestyle differences, and divergence in population structure, which may result in differing vulnerability of urban versus rural population to temperature extremes.",Heat- and cold-stress effects on cardiovascular mortality and morbidity among urban and rural populations in the Czech Republic,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+795562,"Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate-mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global-scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global-scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range-limit-specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature-based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall-based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west-central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and diversity of mangrove forests. In general, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangroves to expand poleward at the expense of salt marshes. However, dispersal and habitat availability constraints may hinder expansion near certain range limits. Along arid and semiarid coasts, decreases or increases in rainfall are expected to lead to mangrove contraction or expansion, respectively. Collectively, our analyses quantify climate-mangrove linkages and improve our understanding of the -expected global-and regional-scale effects of climate change upon mangrove forests.","Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2344552,"This paper investigates the effect of pavement irregularities on the dynamic response of single span bridges. The irregularities in the bridge deck exist due to several factors such as the braking actions by heavy trucks, the artificial barriers at certain locations to reduce the vehicles speed, the misalignment at the expansion joints, and the climatic variations effects on the pavement materials. The irregularities in the bridge deck are modeled in this paper as either a continuous sinusoidal profile or as an individual hump of rectangular or sinusoidal shape located at certain points on the bridge. The bridge is modeled as a single span beam with simple supports. The dynamic response of the bridge represented by the maximum deflection and acceleration is compared with the response of an ideal smooth deck bridge for several parameters of the type of pavement irregularities.",Impact effect due to pavement irregularities on the dynamic response of bridges,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+279146,"A synthesis of glaciological Studies carried out in Chile during recent decades is presented, including inventories and records of glacier variations, fluctuations of which are related to regional climate change and their contribution to eustatic sea-level rise. Based upon satellite imagery, aerial photographs and historical records, new data for 20 glaciers are presented. These new data are combined with previous records to cover the historical variations of 95 Chilean glaciers. Of these glaciers, only 6% show a net advance during the study period, 6% show no significant change, while 88% have retreated. The contribution of Chilean glaciers to eustatic sea-level rise has been estimated to be approximately 8.2% of the worldwide contribution of small glaciers on Earth during the last 51 years. Most of the glacier variations are thought to have been driven by a temperature increase, which has been documented by several stations in Chile. Anomalies in rainfall, and the decreasing trend in annual precipitation shown at a few stations, have probably also contributed to glacier recession. Based on observed climatic trends, it is expected that the glacier retreat will continue, that the mass balance will continue to show a negative trend and that thinning rates will increase. All of these changes will ultimately affect the availability of water resources in Chile that depend on glacierized basins.",Use of remotely sensed and field data to estimate the contribution of Chilean glaciers to eustatic sea-level rise,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+711959,"Significant changes in plant phenology have been observed in response to increases in mean global temperatures. There are concerns that accelerated phenologies can negatively impact plant populations. However, the fitness consequence of changes in phenology in response to elevated temperature is not well understood, particularly under field conditions. We address this issue by exposing a set of recombinant inbred lines of Arabidopsis thaliana to a simulated global warming treatment in the field. We find that plants exposed to elevated temperatures flower earlier, as predicted by photothermal models. However, contrary to life-history trade-off expectations, they also flower at a larger vegetative size, suggesting that warming probably causes acceleration in vegetative development. Although warming increases mean fitness (fruit production) by ca. 25%, there is a significant genotype-by-environment interaction. Changes in fitness rank indicate that imminent climate change can cause populations to be maladapted in their new environment, if adaptive evolution is limited. Thus, changes in the genetic composition of populations are likely, depending on the species' generation time and the speed of temperature change. Interestingly, genotypes that show stronger phenological responses have higher fitness under elevated temperatures, suggesting that phenological sensitivity might be a good indicator of success under elevated temperature at the genotypic level as well as at the species level.",Plant responses to elevated temperatures: a field study on phenological sensitivity and fitness responses to simulated climate warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1322285,"The internal development of the tropical West Pacific Warm Pool and its interaction with high latitude ocean regions on geological timescales is only poorly constrained. Based on two newly recovered sediment cores from the southeastern margin of the West Pacific Warm Pool (northern and southern Manihiki Plateau), we provide new aspects on the dynamically interacting ocean circulation at surface, subsurface, thermocline, and deep thermocline levels during the Pleistocene (similar to 2.5-0.5 Ma). Notably, the variability of thermocline and deep thermocline (similar to 150-400 m water depth) foraminiferal Mg/Ca-based temperatures with up to similar to 6 degrees C amplitude variations exceeds those at shallower depths (down to similar to 120 m) with only similar to 2-3 degrees C temperature variations. A major gradual reorganization of the West Pacific Warm Pool oceanography occurred during the transitional time period of similar to 1.7-1.35 Ma. Prior to similar to 1.7 Ma, pronounced meridional and latitudinal gradients in sea-surface to subsurface ocean properties point to the eastward displacement of the West Pacific Warm Pool boundaries, with the South Pacific Convergence Zone being shifted further northeastward across Manihiki Plateau. Simultaneously, the low amplitude variations of thermocline and deep thermocline temperatures refer to an overall deep and stable thermocline. The meridional and zonal gradients in sea-surface and subsurface ocean properties within the West Pacific Warm Pool reveal a pronounced change after 1.5 Ma, leading to a more southward position of the warm South Pacific Convergence Zone between similar to 1.35-0.9 Ma and similar to 0.75-0.5 Ma. Synchronous to the changes in the upper ocean, the deeper water masses experienced high amplitude variations in temperature, most prominently since similar to 1.5 Ma. This and the dynamically changing thermocline were most likely associated to the impact of southern -sourced mode waters, which might have developed coincidently with the emergence of the East Pacific Cold Tongue and high latitude sea-surface cooling. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Southeastern marginal West Pacific Warm Pool sea-surface and thermocline dynamics during the Pleistocene (2.5-0.5 Ma),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+358149,"No other drug used in anaesthesia has stood so long a test of time as nitrous oxide. For the atmosphere, N2O in fact is harmful, but its impact on the greenhouse effect is small. For our environment as a whole, alternatives to N2O have not been proven their innocence. The small risk for the OT personnel, which N2O shares with other gaseous pollutants, can be excluded by appropriate technical and behavioral measures, The armamentarium of anesthesiology is full of powerful drugs, only to mention neuromuscular blockers, malignant hyperthermia-triggering substances, opioids, and halogenated vapors. All these drugs exhibit severe side effects even if used in the correct manner (and are much more dangerous if handled incorrectly). An experienced anaesthetist will not invariably use propofol or an opioid or succinylcholine in each and every patient. Identically, an experienced anaesthetist is well aware of the potential risks and drawbacks of N 2O and will carefully select the drug of choice; often enough, it will be nitrous oxide.","Nitrous oxide - 200 years of history, a splendid present, doubtful future?",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+587669,"Climate changes in the Mediterranean region, related to a significant increase in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns, can potentially affect local economies. Agriculture and tourism are undoubtedly the most important economic sources for Greece and these may be more strongly affected by changing future climate conditions. Climate change and their various negative impacts on human life are also detected in their environment; hence this study deals with implications, caused by changing climate, in urban and forest areas. Potential changes for the mid-twenty-first century (2021-2050) are analysed using a high-resolution regional climate model. This paper presents relevant climatic indices, indicative for potential implications which may jeopardise vital economic/environmental sectors of the country. The results provide insights into particular regions of the Greek territory that may undergo substantial impacts due to climate change. It is concluded that the duration of dry days is expected to increase in most of the studied agricultural regions. Winter precipitation generally decreases, whereas an increase in autumn precipitation is projected in most areas. Changing climate conditions associated with increased minimum temperatures (approximately 1.3A degrees C) and decreased winter precipitation by 15% on average suggest that the risk for forest fires is intensified in the future. In urban areas, unpleasantly high temperatures during day and night will increase the feeling of discomfort in the citizens, while flash floods events are expected to occur more frequently. Another impact of climate change in urban regions is the increasing energy demand for cooling in summer. Finally, it was found that continental tourist areas of the Greek mainland will more often face heatwave episodes. In coastal regions, increased temperatures especially at night in combination with high levels of relative humidity can lead to conditions that are nothing less than uncomfortable for foreigners and the local population. In general, projected changes associated with temperature have a higher degree of confidence than those associated with precipitation.",An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Greece in the near future,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1392285,"1. To assess low temperature limits of root growth in woody plants from periodically cold climates, we exposed seedlings of broadleaved and conifer taxa to contrasting soil temperature gradients under unlimited nutrient supply. 2. Five of the six species tested (Alnus viridis, Alnus glutinosa, Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, Pinus cembra) produced hardly any (< 3%) new roots at temperatures below 6 degrees C, while Betula pendula did produce a few roots. Across all species, 85% of all new roots in the cold profile were confined to the rooting zone above 9 degrees C. Total root production in the gradual 16 to 2 degrees C temperature profile was only 40% of that obtained at a constant temperature of 16 degrees C. 3. New shoot growth (21-23 degrees C) was unaffected by these soil temperature differences. Neither specific root length nor root width responded to treatments. Low and high elevation taxa did not differ in any of the traits or responses tested. 4. Given that shoots were experiencing optimal conditions, the root data suggest a direct growth (sink) limitation by low temperatures during spring at low elevation, and potentially year-round limitation at the high-elevation climatic treeline. The critical temperature for significant root growth is approximate to 6 degrees C, which is close to the worldwide mean soil temperature at climatic treelines.",Low temperature limits of root growth in deciduous and evergreen temperate tree species,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1357930,"A method of model evaluation is presented which utilises a comparison with a benchmark model. The proposed benchmarking concept is one that can be applied to many hydrological models but, in this instance, is implemented in the context of an in-stream water quality model. The benchmark model is defined in such a way that it is easily implemented within the framework of the test model, i.e. the approach relies on two applications of the same model code rather than the application of two separate model codes. This is illustrated using two case studies from the UK, the Rivers Aire and Ouse, with the objective of simulating a water quality classification, general quality assessment (GQA), which is based on dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand and ammonium. Comparisons between the benchmark and test models are made based on GQA, as well as a step-wise assessment against the components required in its derivation. The benchmarking process yields a great deal of important information about the performance of the test model and raises issues about a priori definition of the assessment criteria.",Towards benchmarking an in-stream water quality model,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+27405,"The disappearing glaciers of Kilimanjaro are attracting broad interest. Less conspicuous but ecologically far more significant is the associated increase of frequency and intensity of fires on the slopes of Kilimanjaro, which leads to a downward shift of the upper forest line by several hundred meters as a result of a drier (warmer) climate since the last century. In contrast to common belief, global warming does not necessarily cause upward migration of plants and animals. Here, it is shown that on Kilimanjaro the opposite trend is under way, with consequences more harmful than those due to the loss of the showy ice cap of Africa's highest mountain.",Climate change-driven forest fires marginalize the impact of ice cap wasting on Kilimanjaro,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1532306,"The middle Carboniferous was an interval of global change when the climate was transitioning from greenhouse to icehouse conditions. Field collections of paleotropical brachiopod assemblages across the Mississippian/Pennsylvanian boundary reveal a taxonomic turnover event in which the overall diversity structure is conserved, despite an apparent regional extinction of 63% of latest Mississippian genera and an apparent regional origination of 50% of earliest Pennsylvanian. An analysis of the global ranges of the brachiopods encountered in the field reveals that turnover was driven primarily by extirpation and immigration rather than true extinctions and originations. Taxonomic richness and evenness are indistinguishable between the latest Mississippian and earliest Pennsylvanian stages. Additive diversity partitioning shows that the within-collection, between-collections (i.e., within-bed), and between-bed diversity components do not change across the Mississippian/Pennsylvanian boundary for richness or evenness. Rank-abundance plots of genera show the same distribution for both stages, but with no correlation between the Mississippian abundances of range-through genera and their abundance in the Pennsylvanian. Detrended correspondence analysis shows a major change in taxonomic composition across that Mississippian/Pennsylvanian boundary and consistency in the general gradient along which genera were distributed. An estimation of spatio-temporal heterogeneity of taxonomic composition within each stage reveals that the earliest Pennsylvanian was significantly more homogeneous. These results suggest that middle Carboniferous brachiopod assemblages from tropical shallow-water carbonate platform settings were organized by some factor that was independent of the specific taxa present. Furthermore, the increased homogeneity in taxonomic composition in the Morrowan did not affect the overall diversity structure. Strong competitive interactions among taxa do not appear to be important in determining the taxonomic compositions and abundances of brachiopod stage-level assemblages.",Stability of regional brachiopod diversity structure across the Mississippian/Pennsylvanian boundary,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1549378,"New estimates of changes in the duration of the navigation period for the Northern Sea Route (NSR) are obtained based on calculations with the current generation of global climate models under moderate anthropogenic impacts in the 21st century. In order to obtain more reliable estimates, it was analyzed whether or not the present climate models can simulate both the average conditions of sea ice and their interannual variation and tendencies to change in the Arctic basin, in particular on the NSR, as compared to the satellite data for recent decades.",New model estimates of changes in the duration of the navigation period for the Northern Sea Route in the 21st century,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+95927,"The tropical Pacific variability has experienced changes in its characteristics over the last decades. In particular, there is some evidence of an increased occurrence of El Nino events in the central Pacific (a.k.a. 'Central Pacific El Nino' (CP El Nino) or 'El Nino Modoki'), in contrast with the cold tongue or Eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino which develops in the eastern Pacific. Here we show that the different flavours of El Nino imply a contrasted Equatorial Kelvin Wave (EKW) characteristic and that their rectification on the mean upwelling condition off Peru through oceanic teleconnection is changed when the CP El Nino frequency of occurrence increases. The Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis product is first used to document the seasonal evolution of the EKW during CP and EP El Nino. It is shown that the strong positive asymmetry of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) is mostly reflected into the EKW activity of the EP El Nino whereas during CP El Nino, the EKW is negatively skewed in the eastern Pacific. Along with slightly cooler conditions off Peru (shallow thermocline) during CP El Nino, this is favourable for the accumulation of cooler SST anomalies along the coast by the remotely forced coastal Kelvin wave. Such a process is observed in a high-resolution regional model of the Humboldt Current system using the SODA outputs as boundary conditions. In particular the model simulates a cooling trend of the SST off Peru although the wind stress forcing has no trend. The model is further used to document the vertical structure along the coast during the two types of El Nino. It is suggested that the increased occurrence of the CP El Nino may also lead to a reduction of mesoscale activity off Peru. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Change in El Nino flavours over 1958-2008: Implications for the long-term trend of the upwelling off Peru,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3620022,"The eco-epidemiology of Triatominae and Trypanosoma cruzi transmission has been little studied in the Argentinean Monte ecoregion. Herein, we provide a comprehensive description of domestic and intrusive triatomines to evaluate the risk of reinfestation of rural dwellings. Triatoma infestans, T. patagonica, T. garciabesi and T. eratyrusiformis were collected by active searches or light traps. None were infected with T. cruzi. One T. infestans male was collected at 1.3 km from the nearest infested house. The finding of intrusive and domestic triatomines in sylvatic foci emphasizes the need of implementing an effective vector surveillance system. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.",Occurrence of domestic and intrusive triatomines (Hemiptera: Reduviidae)in sylvatic habitats of the temperate Monte Desert ecoregion of Argentina,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+426542,"Soil fertility declines constrain crop productivity on smallholder farms in sub-Saharan Africa. Government and non-government organizations promote the use of mineral fertilizer and improved seed varieties to redress nutrient depletion and increase crop yields. Similarly, rotational cropping with nitrogen (N)-fixing legume cover crops or trees is promoted to improve soil fertility and crop yields. We examined maize grain yields and partial N balances on 24 smallholder maize farms in western Kenya, where interventions have increased access to agricultural inputs and rotational legume technologies. On these farms, mineral fertilizer inputs ranged from 0 to 161 kg N ha(-1) (mean = 48 kg N ha(-1)), and maize grain yields ranged from 1 to 7 t ha(-1) (mean = 3.4 t ha(-1)). Partial N balances ranged from large losses (-112 kg N ha(-1)) to large gains (93 kg N ha(-1)) with a mean of -3 kg N ha(-1). Maize grain yields increased significantly with N inputs (from fertilizer and legumes) in 2012 but not in 2013 when rainfall was lower. Nitrogen inputs of 40 kg N ha(-1) were required to produce 3 t of maize per hectare. N balances varied both among farms and between years, highlighting the importance of tracking inputs and outputs on multiple farms over multiple years before drawing conclusions about nutrient management, soil fertility outcomes and food security. The addition of N from legume rotations was a strong predictor of grain yields and positive N balances in lower-yielding farms in both years. This suggested that legume rotations may be particularly important for buffering yields from climate variability and maintaining N balances in low rainfall years. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",The effect of mineral and organic nutrient input on yields and nitrogen balances in western Kenya,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+271283,"More than 2.4 billion people around the world in the rural community depend on biomass fuel (wood, charcoal animal dung, and crop residue). Incomplete combustion of this fuel has led to increased amounts of indoor pollution and raise in global warming; this has further led to the increase in the incidence of diseases. Therefore, interventions to reduce biomass fuel related emission by alternative fuels and improved combustion efficiency can improve health, add to socioeconomic development. The area selected for sampling was the Uchalli Wetlands Complex which in the Northwest of Khushab district in Pakistan which houses three saline lakes surrounded by forest and villages. A questionnaire was designed with questions regarding the household fuel use and techniques to improve livelihood and to create awareness and locals from the age of 19-95 were interviewed with a majority of males, houses in the area were mainly of stone blocks and majority males in the area worked in the city. Combined family system was prevalent in the area (80%) with about 42% of the population having no formal education. A wide variety of stoves were observed in the area with wives having a major decision (69%) in fuel choice which mainly depended on the cheapness and availability of the fuel. The cooking being mostly done (79.8%) outside in summers and indoors in winters. Majority of the respondents (94.7%) were aware that liquid petroleum gas and natural gas are better ways of reducing pollution and decreasing the incidence of diseases which included using dry wood, proper ventilation and many others.","LOCAL PERCEPTION OF INDOOR AIR POLLUTION WITH USE OF BIOFUEL IN RURAL COMMUNITIES OF UCHALLI WETLANDS COMPLEX, SALT RANGE PAKISTAN",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1849279,"The study, which was conducted in Klein-Altendorf, Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany, simulated the effect of temperature and solar radiation on the yield of winter wheat from 1991 to 2004 by using LINTUL 2 model. The parameters of temperature and radiation were modified to check the sensitivity of the model with regard to the two variables. Furthermore, it has been discussed how to maintain the original yield under a condition with variable radiation and temperature by changing species with different temperature sum and light use efficiency. The results showed that: under the same radiation value, the temperature increment was linearly negatively correlated with crop yield. The yield decreased with increasing temperature. Under the same temperature, the correlation between solar radiation and crop yield was positive linear. The yield increased with increasing radiation. The effect of radiation factor on crop yield was more sensitive than the effect of temperature. In worse conditions with increased temperature or decreased radiation, man can keep the original yield by changing the cultivars with different temperature sum and light use efficiency (LUE).",The Influence of Climate Factor on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Germany based on LINTUL 2 Model,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+267671,"Recent studies on climate responses in ectothermic (cold-blooded) vertebrates have been few in number and focussed on phenology rather than morphology. According to Bergmann's rule, endothermic (warm-blooded) vertebrates from cooler climates tend to be larger than congeners from warmer regions. Although amphibians are ectothermic vertebrates, weather and climatic conditions may also impact on their morphology, and thereby affect their survival rates and population dynamics. In this paper, we show, in a unique long-term study during the period 1963-2003 in an agricultural landscape in western Poland, that the body length of two water frog parental species (males of both Rana ridibunda and R. lessonae) increased significantly. However, their hybridogenetic hybrid R. esculenta did not show similar changes. A significant relationship with a large-scale climatic factor, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, was found positive for R. ridibunda males and R. lessonae females, and negative for R. esculenta females. Our findings, the first for amphibians, are consistent with other studies reporting that recent climate change has affected the morphology of animals. However, we also show that changes in amphibian phenotype linked to climate may vary independently between (even very similar) species.",Is body size of the water frog Rana esculenta complex responding to climate change?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3291232,"Hot summers with several intensive heat waves lead to strong heat-related mortality in Central and Southeast European cities. Therefore, the aim of the study was to evaluate association between maximum temaprature and mortality during the summer period in 2015 and to contribute to the future long-term assessment of heat-related mortality in urban population. The daily number of deaths of all causes and cause-specific mortality for the population of Novi Sad were used, as well as hourly air temperature data from the Novi Sad urban network (NSUNET) system. Four heat waves were detected using the Huth and Kysely methods. Three heat wave periods lasted longer than ten days. In July and August, 45% of days had a maximum temperature above 30 degrees C, and more than 70% of days had a maximum temperature above 25 degrees C. The average number of deaths was higher during the heat wave days. Significant association was found between Tmax and all-cause, cardiorespiratory, non-cardiorespiratory in total population, all-cause and cardiorespiratory mortality in the age group 65 and over. This study demonstrates a high magnitude of relation between mortality and temperature. Finally, the results show that population in urban areas is highly vulnerable during heat waves.","Heat-related Mortality as an Indicator of Population Vulnerability in a Mid-sized Central European City (Novi Sad, Serbia, summer 2015)",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3959268,"The semiarid regions (SARs) are characterized by extreme temperature changes, low and unevenly distributed precipitation, hazardous torrential rains, and frequent early spring droughts. Barley is the most highly adapted cereal in SARs, but durum wheat is the most widely cultivated. The area in cereals varies considerably from year to year, and yields are low. Tillage practices are used to conserve both soil and moisture and to prepare the seed bed. However, improved fertilizer use and weed control practices are not being used. Without development of needed cultural and tillage practice systems, the genetic potential of today's varieties cannot be realized. Planting depth and rate, row spacing, fertilizer application, and weed control were investigated under conventional tillage and reduced tillage systems. In on-farm trials, reduced tillage did not significantly affect durum wheat yield but slightly increased barley yield compared with traditional practices. Optimum planting depth for both wheat and barley was 7 cm. Higher seeding rates increased the yield of both crops. Highest yields were obtained at planting rates of 140 kg/ha for wheat and 100 kg/ha for barley. At these rates, maximum yields were achieved at row spacings of 30 cm for barley and 20 cm for durum wheat. Use of fertilizer and weed control increased yields substantially. Sustained and increased production in SARs can be achieved with a ""package of practices"" approach that incorporates these cultural and tillage practices.",Effect of cultural practices on barley and durum wheat yields in semiarid regions of Tunisia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3262688,"Rising sea surface temperatures are expected to lead to the loss of phytoplankton biodiversity. However, we currently understand very little about the interactions between warming, loss of phytoplankton diversity and its impact on the oceans' primary production. We experimentally manipulated the species richness of marine phytoplankton communities under a range of warming scenarios, and found that ecosystem production declined more abruptly with species loss in communities exposed to higher temperatures. Species contributing positively to ecosystem production in the warmed treatments were those that had the highest optimal temperatures for photosynthesis, implying that the synergistic impacts of warming and biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning were mediated by thermal trait variability. As species were lost from the communities, the probability of taxa remaining that could tolerate warming diminished, resulting in abrupt declines in ecosystem production. Our results highlight the potential for synergistic effects of warming and biodiversity loss on marine primary production.",Abrupt declines in marine phytoplankton production driven by warming and biodiversity loss in a microcosm experiment,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+203206,"Variations of phenology and distribution have been recently highlighted in numerous insect species and attributed to climate change, particularly the increase of temperature and atmospheric CO2. Both have been shown to have direct and indirect effects on insect species of various ecosystems, though the responses are often species-specific. The pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa (Lepidoptera, Notodontidae) is an important pest of conifers in the Mediterranean region, and has been recently shown to expand its altitudinal range in the Alps, including the mountain pine Pinus mugo as a novel host. We had the opportunity to transplant colonies of the pine processionary moth to a high elevation site well outside of the current range of the insect (Stillberg, Davos, Switzerland, 2180 m), where trees of the mountain pine have been grown for five years under ambient and elevated CO2 concentrations (ca. 570 ppm). The aim of the study was to evaluate the response of first instar larvae to extreme conditions of temperature and to an altered performance induced by the change of host metabolism under elevated CO2. Larval mortality and relative growth rate did not differ between host trees grown in ambient or elevated CO2. As extended snow cover may be an important mortality factor of larval colonies on the dwarf trees of mountain pine, we tested the survival of colonies transplanted at two extreme sites of Eastern Alps. The snow cover extended over more than one month proved to be an important mortality factor of larval colonies on mountain pine. We concluded that the first instar larvae of the pine processionary moth are not concerned by unusually low temperature and CO2 increase whereas they can be later strongly affected by snow accumulation. The decrease of snow cover observed in the last decades, however, may reduce such a risk.",Performances of an expanding insect under elevated CO2 and snow cover in the Alps,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2364535,"Study region: The Gila River, New Mexico, is characterized by two peaks in streamflow: one in the winter spring (December May), and summer (August September). The region is influenced both by Pacific SST variability as well as the North American Monsoon. Study focus: The mechanisms responsible for the variability of the winter spring and summer streamflow peaks are investigated by correlation of streamflow with precipitation and sea surface temperature for 1928-2012. Decadal variability in the flow record is examined for a longer term perspective on Gila River streamflow using tree ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate a strong influence of winter spring precipitation and Pacific SST anomalies on the winter spring streamflow, with El Nitio conditions in the Pacific causing increased precipitation and streamflow. Decadal Pacific variability helps explain the transition from high winter flow in the late 20th century to lower flows in the most recent decade. The summer streamflow has a somewhat weaker correlation with precipitation and Pacific SST than the winter spring streamflow. Its variability is more likely influenced by local North American Monsoon precipitation variability. PDSI and SPI reconstructions indicate much more severe and extended periods of droughts and pluvials in past centuries as well as periods of concurrent winter and summer drought. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.",Causes of interannual to decadal variability of Gila River streamflow over the past century,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+3315288,"Drought is a natural hazard due to adverse effects in climate change in earth's environment. Drought assessment is very important to manage water resources in lean period. In the present study, drought years and degree of deficit of annual rainfall are determined by use of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3 to 12 Months), and Percentage Departure from mean (PD) methods. For this study, monthly rainfall data of 102 years (1901-2002), of Banaskantha District, were used. The months of January, February, March, April, May, November, and December have been identified 68, 73, 78, 71, 68, 81, and 79 times as drought months, respectively, in the twentieth century, indicating that these months must be provided with assured Irrigation. From the annual rainfall departure analysis, the drought years have been identified and it is observed that 1901, 1904, 1911,1915,1923,1939,1969,1987, and 2002 are affected by severe drought and 1974 is affected by extreme drought condition. The study also reveals that 6, 15, and 15% of extreme dry years, severe dry years, and moderate dry years occur among drought years considered, which means 36% years are categorized into moderate to extreme drought years out of the total drought years.","Categorization of Drought During Twentieth Century Using Precipitation in Banaskantha District, Gujarat, India",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+348061,"Phytoplankton seasonal succession has been linked to a variety of serial environmental changes, especially weather- and climate-induced physical forcing. This study compared spring phytoplankton dynamics after winters of different severity (cold, normal, and warm) in Lake Erken, Sweden. The spring diatom bloom was dominated by different functional groups: group A (centric diatoms 5-10 mu m) after cold winters, B (centric diatoms > 15 mu m) after normal winters, and P (Aulacoseira granulata, Fragilaria crotonensis) after warm winters. Our results suggest that weather-related processes were the primary external drivers accounting for differences in spring phytoplankton dynamics in Lake Erken. Spring phytoplankton are influenced by overwintering species from the last autumn that can initiate the following spring bloom. Average taxonomic distinctness of the spring community was assessed using a new biodiversity measurement that incorporates taxonomic relatedness information. This value was lower than expected after warm and cold winters, which had winter air temperature 1A degrees C deviation from an average value calculated over 21 years. Such winters increased the level of disturbance or stress to the lake, resulting in a spring with less diverse phytoplankton by narrowing the niche for species with various ecological requirements.","Effects of winter severity on spring phytoplankton development in a temperate lake (Lake Erken, Sweden)",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+899127,"Migration in response to climatic hazards or changes in climatic conditions can unfold in a variety of ways, ranging from barely observable, incremental changes in pre-existing migration flows to abrupt, non-linear population movements. The adoption of migration instead of in situ adaptation responses, and the high degree of variability in potential migration outcomes, in part reflects the presence of thresholds or tipping points within the processes of human-environment interaction through which climate adaptation and migration take place. This article reviews and makes linkages between existing research in climate adaptation, migration system dynamics, residential preferences, and risk perception to identify and explore the functioning and importance of thresholds. Parochial examples from the author's published research on climate adaptation and migration in rural North America are used to illustrate. Six types of thresholds in response to climate hazards are identified: (1) Adaptation becomes necessary; (2) Adaptation becomes ineffective; (3) Substantive changes in land use/livelihoods become necessary; (4) In situ adaptation fails, migration ensues; (5) Migration rates become non-linear; and (6) Migration rates cease to be non-linear. Movement across thresholds is driven by context-specific characteristics of climate events, natural systems, and/or human systems. Transition from incremental to non-linear migration can be accelerated by people's perceptions, by actions of influential individuals or groups, and by changes in key infrastructure, services, or other community assets. Non-linear climate migration events already occur at local and sub-regional scales. The potential for global scale, non-linear population movements later this century depends heavily on future greenhouse gas emission trends. The ability to identify and avoid thresholds that tip climate migration into a non-linear state will be of growing concern to policy makers and planners at all levels in coming decades. This article forms part of a special issue of this journal dedicated to the late Graeme Hugo, and the author draws heavily on past research by Professor Hugo and colleagues.",Thresholds in climate migration,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3965935,"As corporate globalization is restricted through changes in macro-environments, firms traditionally reliant on global talent pools are suffering. This is particularly true for high-tech firms' seeking to source high-skilled STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) talent. The aim of this study, in line with the special issue, is to explore the impact of macro-level trends in national government policy and political climates on high-tech firms seeking to source high-skilled STEM talent. By applying coevolutionary reasoning, we develop propositions that link the macro environment with corporate strategizing. A multi-respondent, qualitative research design is adopted, involving interviews and focus groups with 40 practitioners and industry experts. Through qualitative data analysis, we identify emergent adaptations to corporate talent sourcing activities for dealing with increasing STEM shortages linked to deglobalization. As the data highlight, the adaptations are a consequence of both internal strategic factors as well as external institutional forces and the interplay between the two. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.",Deglobalization and talent sourcing: Cross-national evidence from high-tech firms,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+476456,"Distributional change, expressed as range expansion or contraction , has been observed in many marine populations and related to changes in the environment. The extent of such distributional changes is also expected to increase in response to future climate change. The Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (BCLME) which adjoins the south-western coast of Africa is a global marine hotspot with long-term warming occurring over a large area. The area is also an important centre of marine food production for three countries-South Africa, Namibia and Angola and is considered to be vulnerable to future climate change or increased climate variability. In this study we analysed change in distribution and range size of several demersal fish species in the BCLME over the period 1985-2010, including both commercial and non-commercial fish populations. Some of the observed changes in distribution and range size correspond to what is expected with increased warming whereas others appear to the contrary. Overall the results of the study highlight the complex nature of the response of fish population to climate change.",Assessing changes in the distribution and range size of demersal fish populations in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1487075,"Background: Fluctuations in temperature occur naturally during plant growth and reproduction. However, in the hot summers this variation may become stressful and damaging for the molecular mechanisms involved in proper cell growth, impairing thus plant development and particularly fruit-set in many crop plants. Tolerance to such a stress can be achieved by constitutive gene expression or by rapid changes in gene expression, which ultimately leads to protection against thermal damage. We have used cDNA-AFLP and microarray analyses to compare the early response of the tomato meiotic anther transcriptome to moderate heat stress conditions (32 degrees C) in a heat-tolerant and a heat-sensitive tomato genotype. In the light of the expected global temperature increases, elucidating such protective mechanisms and identifying candidate tolerance genes can be used to improve breeding strategies for crop tolerance to heat stress. Results: The cDNA-AFLP analysis shows that 30 h of moderate heat stress (MHS) alter the expression of approximately 1% of the studied transcript-derived fragments in a heat-sensitive genotype. The major effect is gene down-regulation after the first 2 h of stress. The microarray analysis subsequently applied to elucidate early responses of a heat-tolerant and a heat-sensitive tomato genotype, also shows about 1% of the genes having significant changes in expression after the 2 h of stress. The tolerant genotype not only reacts with moderate transcriptomic changes but also exhibits constitutively higher expression levels of genes involved in protection and thermotolerance. Conclusion: In contrast to the heat-sensitive genotype, the heat-tolerant genotype exhibits moderate transcriptional changes under moderate heat stress. Moreover, the heat-tolerant genotype also shows a different constitutive gene expression profile compared to the heat-sensitive genotype, indicating genetic differences in adaptation to increased temperatures. In the heat-tolerant genotype, the majority of changes in gene expression is represented by up-regulation, while in the heat-sensitive genotype there is a general trend to down-regulate gene expression upon MHS. The putative functions associated with the genes identified by cDNA-AFLP or microarray indicate the involvement of heat shock, metabolism, antioxidant and development pathways. Based on the observed differences in response to MHS and on literature sources, we identified a number of candidate transcripts involved in heat-tolerance.",Temperature stress differentially modulates transcription in meiotic anthers of heat-tolerant and heat-sensitive tomato plants,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3946689,"Environmental factors affecting speed of germination and survival of naturally occurring seed of the legume Stylosanthes humilis and the grass Digitaria ciliaris were studied. Previous studies on the seedbed environment had shown that germination speed, defined as the proportion of seeds capable of germinating in the first 12 h period, was likely to be the most relevant laboratory measurement. Ten studies were conducted to compare species performance and to devise a standard technique for the measurement of germination speed under laboratory conditions. For S. humilis, the level and duration of submergence in water in the germination test had a large effect on germination speed (from 0–70% in 12 h). The absence of light delayed germination (7% in 12 h compared to 52% under light), but did not prevent complete germination over 7 days. Optimum temperature was 25°C with a decrease to 0% at 30°C. A standard technique was developed for measuring potential germination speed which gave reproducible results allowing differences in seed lots to be described. D. ciliaris seeds sampled just prior to field germination in the early storm period were less sensitive to environmental control. Temperature optimum for germination decreased from 40 to 30°C with the duration of the germination test. Seeds sampled at the time of seed dispersal (early dry season) had a high fraction (80%) requiring light for germination but this requirement had been lost by the early storm period. Investigations on the role of leaching (water movement) showed that long periods of water movement (12–18 h) increased the speed of germination of both species and in the case of S. humilis overcame environmental blocks to rapid germination (absence of light or 30°C temperature). Root elongation rates in S. humilis were not greatly affected by temperature over the range of seedbed temperatures when moisture is available (25–40°C) in the field. However, D. ciliaris was delayed in development at 25°C, the most likely overnight surface soil temperature. D. ciliaris was more susceptible to death by desiccation once germination had occurred compared to S. humilis. In both species seedling death due to desiccation increased with stage of development. The better relative performance of S. humilis in the germination‐establishment phase of the life cycle, which had been observed in a previous study, could be explained by a qualitative comparison of the species' attributes. This suggested that D. ciliaris was more likely to germinate at rainfall events following which there was a greater chance of seedling death Copyright © 1985, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved","Pasture seed dynamics in a dry monsoonal climate, II The effect of water availability, light and temperature on germination speed and seedling survival of Stylosanthes humilis and Digitaria ciliaris",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1374589,"Temperature and rainfall are important drivers of mosquito abundance and have been used in previous studies as the basis for predictive models. To elucidate patterns of mosquito population dynamics in urban environments, the variation in mosquito abundance over a year and its association with climatic variables were analyzed. The Akaike information criterion was used to analyze the correlations between abundance and climate variables in mosquito populations collected in 2 urban parks: Alfredo Volpi Park and Burle Marx Park. Our findings suggest that both climatic and density-dependent variations may have an important impact on fluctuations in mosquito abundance, modulating population dynamics in urban parks.","MOSQUITO POPULATION DIVERSITY AND ABUNDANCE PATTERNS IN TWO PARKS IN SAO PAULO, BRAZIL",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+371632,"Background: Globally, coral bleaching has been responsible for a significant decline in both coral cover and diversity over the past two decades. During the summer of 2010-11, anomalous large-scale ocean warming induced unprecedented levels of coral bleaching accompanied by substantial storminess across more than 12 degrees of latitude and 1200 kilometers of coastline in Western Australia (WA). Methodology/Principal Findings: Extreme La-Nina conditions caused extensive warming of waters and drove considerable storminess and cyclonic activity across WA from October 2010 to May 2011. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature measurements recorded anomalies of up to 5 degrees C above long-term averages. Benthic surveys quantified the extent of bleaching at 10 locations across four regions from tropical to temperate waters. Bleaching was recorded in all locations across regions and ranged between 17% (+/- 5.5) in the temperate Perth region, to 95% (+/- 3.5) in the Exmouth Gulf of the tropical Ningaloo region. Coincident with high levels of bleaching, three cyclones passed in close proximity to study locations around the time of peak temperatures. Follow-up surveys revealed spatial heterogeneity in coral cover change with four of ten locations recording significant loss of coral cover. Relative decreases ranged between 22%-83.9% of total coral cover, with the greatest losses in the Exmouth Gulf. Conclusions/Significance: The anomalous thermal stress of 2010-11 induced mass bleaching of corals along central and southern WA coral reefs. Significant coral bleaching was observed at multiple locations across the tropical-temperate divide spanning more than 1200 km of coastline. Resultant spatially patchy loss of coral cover under widespread and high levels of bleaching and cyclonic activity, suggests a degree of resilience for WA coral communities. However, the spatial extent of bleaching casts some doubt over hypotheses suggesting that future impacts to coral reefs under forecast warming regimes may in part be mitigated by southern thermal refugia.",Unprecedented Mass Bleaching and Loss of Coral across 12 degrees of Latitude in Western Australia in 2010-11,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+320559,"Rainfall over West Africa shows strong interannual variability related to changes in Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Nevertheless, this relationship seem to be non-stationary. A particular turning point is the decade of the 1970s, which witnessed a number of changes in the climatic system, including the climate shift of the late 1970s. The first aim of this study is to explore the change in the interannual variability of West African rainfall after this shift. The analysis indicates that the dipolar features of the rainfall variability over this region, related to changes in the Atlantic SST, disappear after this period. Also, the Pacific SST variability has a higher correlation with Guinean rainfall in the recent period. The results suggest that the current relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific El Nio phenomena is the principal responsible for these changes. A fundamental goal of climate research is the development of models simulating a realistic current climate. For this reason, the second aim of this work is to test the performance of Atmospheric General Circulation models in simulating rainfall variability over West Africa. The models have been run with observed SSTs for the common period 1957-1998 as part of an intercomparison exercise. The results show that the models are able to reproduce Guinean interannual variability, which is strongly related to SST variability in the Equatorial Atlantic. Nevertheless, problems in the simulation of the Sahelian interannual variability appear: not all models are able to reproduce the observed negative link between rainfall over the Sahel and El Nio-like anomalies in the Pacific, neither the positive correlation between Mediterranean SSTs and Sahelian rainfall.",Changes in the interannual SST-forced signals on West African rainfall. AGCM intercomparison,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3908993,"Various extraction characteristics of oil from Hevea brasiliensis seed has been studied with different solvents like hexane, petroleum ether and tetrahydrofuran. Parameters affecting the extraction process were evaluated for temperature, extraction time and particle size. These parameters significantly influence the oil extraction process to obtain maximum yield. From the results, it was observed that maximum yield of 49.94wt% oil was obtained withhexane for the optimized condition 0.35 mm particle size, 60°C extraction temperature and 180 min extraction time. Oil yield increases with increase in temperature and time, but decreases with increase in particle size. Physicochemical properties of rubber seed oil were investigated using standard techniques. © 2018 EM International. All rights reserved.",Optimization and characterization of oil Extraction from Hevea brasiliensis Seed,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+364345,"Natural ecosystems have developed within ranges of conditions that can serve as references for setting conservation targets or assessing the current ecological integrity of managed ecosystems. Because of their climate determinism, forest fires are likely to have consequences that could exacerbate biophysical and socioeconomical vulnerabilities in the context of climate change. We evaluated future trends in fire activity under climate change in the eastern Canadian boreal forest and investigated whether these changes were included in the variability observed during the last 7000 years from sedimentary charcoal records from three lakes. Prediction of future annual area burned was made using simulated Monthly Drought Code data collected from an ensemble of 19 global climate model experiments. The increase in burn rate that is predicted for the end of the 21st century (0.45% year(-1) with 95% confidence interval (0.32, 0.59) falls well within the long-term past variability (0.37 to 0.90% year(-1)). Although our results suggest that the predicted change in burn rates per se will not move this ecosystem to new conditions, the effects of increasing fire incidence cumulated with current rates of clear-cutting or other low-retention types of harvesting, which still prevail in this region, remain preoccupying.",Will climate change drive 21st century burn rates in Canadian boreal forest outside of its natural variability: collating global climate model experiments with sedimentary charcoal data,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2660336,"Water shortages in Pakistan are among the most severe in the world, and its water resources are decreasing significantly due to the prevailing hydro-meteorological conditions. We assessed variations in meteorological and hydrological variables using innovative trend analysis (ITA) and traditional trend analysis methods at a practical significance level, which is also of practical interest. We developed threshold levels of hydrological variables and developed a non-parametric climate-sensitivity model of the high-altitude catchment of the western Himalayas. The runoff of Zone I decreased, while the temperature increased and the precipitation increased significantly. In Zone II, the runoff and temperature increased but the precipitation decreased. A two-dimensional visualization of the Parde coefficient showed extreme drought events, and indicated greater sensitivity of the hydrological regime to temperature than to precipitation. The threshold levels of runoff for Zones I and II were 320 and 363 mm using the Q(80) fixed method, while the mean runoff amounts were estimated to be 79.95 and 55.61 mm, respectively. The transient threshold levels varied by month, and the duration of droughts in Zones I and II ranged from 26.39 to 78.98 days. The sensitivity of the hydrological regime was estimated based on a modified climate-elasticity model (epsilon(p) = 0.11-0.23, epsilon(t) = -0.04-2.39) for Zones I and II, respectively. These results highlight the sensitivity of the hydrological regime to temperature, which influences the melting process. However, it is important to establish thresholds for hydrological variables and understand the climate sensitivity of the hydrological regime of the entire basin, so that policy makers and water managers can make sustainable water-resource-management decisions for this region.","Development of Threshold Levels and a Climate-Sensitivity Model of the Hydrological Regime of the High-Altitude Catchment of the Western Himalayas, Pakistan",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1790086,"Climate change over five provinces of southwest China including Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing are simulated by a regional climate model(RegCM3) using the output of a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model(ECHAM5/MPI-OM) as lateral and boundary conditions. Two sets of 15-year simulations at 20 km gird spacing for present day (1986-2000) and future (2011-2025, IPCC SRES A1B scenario) are conducted with surface air temperature and precipitation as a focal area in analysis. Results show that (1) RegCM3 can reproduce well the spatial disturbution of surface air temperature in soutwest China, while the simulated value is lower than observation. The spatial distribution of precipitation increase from northwest to southeast can also be simulated by RegCM3. Precipitation simulation for the annual mean and in summer is much better than that in winter. The simulaed value in winter is highter than observation. (2) During 2010-2025, there may be a remarkably warming either in annual or seasons. The temperature change in north is larger than that in south. The daily maximum, minimum temperature change in winter is larger than that in summer. (3) Precipitation increase in annual, autumn and winter is agreenment, while precipitation increase is signifcantly in winter. Precipictation decrease in spring and summer isn't obviously. Overall, temperature increase and precipitation decrease in spring and summer might bring on the risk of high temperature and drought in some regions. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.",Numerical Simulation and Evaluation of Regional Climate Change in Southwest China by a Regional Climate Model,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1300064,"There has been a growing concern on temporal variations on drought characteristics due to climate change. This study compares meteorological drought characteristics for two different periods to quantify the temporal changes in seasonal droughts of 18 weather stations of the country. Fifty-five years rainfall and temperature data are divided into two different thirty-year periods, 1961-1990 and 1985-2014 and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for those periods are calculated to assess the changes. Four seasons in this study are selected as two major crop growing seasons namely, Rabi (November to April) and Kharif (May to October) and two critical periods for crop growth in term of water supply namely critical Rabi (March-April) and critical Kharif (May). Results show that moderate, extreme, and severe Rabi droughts has increased in 11, 9, and 4 stations out of 18 stations, respectively, and Kharif severe and extreme droughts has increased in 8 and 9 stations, respectively, In addition, the frequency analysis shows that the return periods have decreased during 1985-2014 at the stations where it was high during 1961-1990 and vice versa. This has made the spatial distribution of return periods of droughts more uniform over the country for most of the seasons. Increased return period of droughts in highly drought prone north and northwest Bangladesh has caused decrease in average frequency of droughts. Consequently, this result corresponds that Bangladesh experiences fewer droughts in recent years. Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data reveals that significant increase of mean temperature and no significant change in rainfall in almost all months have increased the frequency of droughts in the regions where droughts were less frequent.",Changing Pattern of Droughts during Cropping Seasons of Bangladesh,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+794814,"Arctic sea ice has been shrinking at unprecedented rates over the past three decades. These cryospheric changes have coincided with greater incidence of global extreme weather conditions, including increased severity and frequency of summer heatwaves and extreme rainfall events. Recent studies identify potential physical mechanisms related to Rossby wave and resonance theories that may attribute the observed changes in extreme summer weather patterns to Arctic sea ice decline. This study explores the linkages between summer Arctic sea ice variability and hydroclimate of the north-central United States (US) during the 1979 to 2013 period. Since 1979, summers with low sea ice conditions have coincided with significant increases in mean, minimum, maximum, and dew point air temperatures. Also apparent are increases in seasonal precipitation, the number of wet days, heavy (>95th percentile) precipitation days, and accumulated precipitation over the region. These moisture changes coincide with atmospheric patterns typically observed during anomalously wet summers, known to prompt flooding across the Upper Mississippi River Valley (UMRV) region. Low sea ice summers have coincided with (1) enhanced southerly air flow and increased activity of the Great Plains Low Level Jet (GPLLJ) over the study area, (2) increased occurrence of moist tropical air masses over the UMRV region, and (3) amplified 500 hPa flow over the Pacific-North American region with a ridge situated over the central-eastern portions of the North American continent emanating from Greenland and the central Arctic basin. The results suggest summer Arctic sea ice variability has been associated with recent hydroclimate anomalies of the north-central United States and the UMRV region and add to our growing knowledge of the connections between a changing Arctic environment and concurrent mid-latitude climate variability.",Connections between north-central United States summer hydroclimatology and Arctic sea ice variability,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+606210,"In this study we estimate the radiative impact of wildfires in Alaska during the record wildfire season of 2004 by integrating model simulations and satellite observations of the top of the atmosphere ( TOA) radiative fluxes and aerosol optical depth. We compare results for the summer of 2004 to results for the summer of 2000 when fire activity in the boreal zone was low. Both observations and model show a decrease in TOA clear-sky fluxes over the Alaska fire region during summer 2004 of -7 +/- 6 W m(-2) and -10 +/- 4 W m(-2), respectively. About two thirds of the change occurs in the longwave, and one third in the shortwave, spectral range. On the bases of detailed model analysis we estimate that the changes in the longwave flux are predominantly explained by a higher surface temperature in summer 2004 compared to 2000. The change in the shortwave flux is largely caused by scattering of solar radiation on organic carbon aerosols emitted from the 2004 fires. This cooling is somewhat mitigated by the warming effect due to absorbing black carbon aerosols emitted from the fires and to a lesser extent by ozone and other greenhouse gases produced and released from the fires. Sensitivity studies with varying aerosol emission scenarios indicate that the ratio of black to organic carbon aerosol emissions of the boreal fires used in this study needs to be increased considerably to match both observations of aerosol optical depth and TOA radiation fluxes, or the biomass burning aerosols must be considerably more absorbing than parameterized in the model. While this study cannot resolve the cause of this discrepancy, it presents a powerful methodology to constrain aerosol emissions. This methodology will benefit from future improvements in measurements and modeling techniques.",Impact of the summer 2004 Alaska fires on top of the atmosphere clear-sky radiation fluxes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+548751,"Choosing appropriate management strategies and effective conservation actions requires information about the future consequences of current conservation actions; however, this crucial information is rarely available to conservation planners. This study applies scenario planning and agent-based modelling (ABM) to assess the potential impact of alternative management strategies on future suitability and functional connectivity of Cross River gorilla (CRG) habitat in the Nigeria-Cameroon border region. The CRG population is small and fragmented, with many subpopulations and migration corridors located outside protected areas. This study used ABM to simulate human land use in the study area over a period of 15 years under different management scenarios and assessed the impact on future suitability and functional connectivity of CRG habitat. The simulations showed that a landscape approach with greater focus on interventions to change human behaviour towards conserving gorillas and sustainable forest use would result in greater improvement in habitat suitability and functional connectivity compared to focusing on improving law enforcement within existing protected areas. However, the best scenarios were when both law enforcement and behaviour change increased. The results highlight the importance of human behaviour change to conservation in human-dominated landscapes and can inform conservation planning and management of other species and in similar landscapes.",Evaluating the potential effectiveness of alternative management scenarios in ape habitat,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+232772,"Understanding whether tree growth is limited by carbon gain (source limitation) or by the direct effect of environmental factors such as water deficit or temperature (sink limitation) is crucial for improving projections of the effects of climate change on forest productivity. We studied the relationships between tree basal area (BA) variations, eddy covariance carbon fluxes, predawn water potential ((pd)) and temperature at different timescales using an 8-yr dataset and a rainfall exclusion experiment in a Quercus ilex Mediterranean coppice. At the daily timescale, during periods of low temperature (<5 degrees C) and high water deficit (<-1.1MPa), gross primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity remained positive whereas the stem increment was nil. Thus, stem increment appeared limited by drought and temperature rather than by carbon input. Annual growth was accurately predicted by the duration of BA increment during spring (t(t0-t1)). The onset of growth (t(0)) was related to winter temperatures and the summer interruption of growth (t(1)) to a threshold (pd) value of -1.1MPa. We suggest that using environmental drivers (i.e. drought and temperature) to predict stem growth phenology can contribute to an improvement in vegetation models and may change the current projections of Mediterranean forest productivity under climate change scenarios.",Growth duration is a better predictor of stem increment than carbon supply in a Mediterranean oak forest: implications for assessing forest productivity under climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+596820,"BACKGROUND: Forest, grass, and peat fires release approximately 2 petagrams of carbon into the atmosphere each year, influencing weather, climate, and air quality. OBJECTIVE: We estimated the annual global mortality attributable to landscape fire smoke (LFS). METHODS: Daily and annual exposure to particulate matter <= 2.5 mu m in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from fire emissions was estimated globally for 1997 through 2006 by combining outputs from a chemical transport model with satellite-based observations of aerosol optical depth. In World Health Organization (WHO) subregions classified as sporadically affected, the daily burden of mortality was estimated using previously published concentration-response coefficients for the association between short-term elevations in PM2.5 from LFS (contrasted with 0 mu g/m(3) from LFS) and all-cause mortality. In subregions classified as chronically affected, the annual burden of mortality was estimated using the American Cancer Society study coefficient for the association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and all-cause mortality. The annual average PM2.5 estimates were contrasted with theoretical minimum (counterfactual) concentrations in each chronically affected subregion. Sensitivity of mortality estimates to different exposure assessments, counterfactual estimates, and concentration-response functions was evaluated. Strong La Nina and El Nino years were compared to assess the influence of interannual climatic variability. RESULTS: Our principal estimate for the average mortality attributable to LFS exposure was 339,000 deaths annually. In sensitivity analyses the interquartile range of all tested estimates was 260,000-600,000. The regions most affected were sub-Saharan Africa (157,000) and Southeast Asia (110,000). Estimated annual mortality during La Nina was 262,000, compared with 532,000 during El Nino. CONCLUSIONS: Fire emissions are an important contributor to global mortality. Adverse health outcomes associated with LFS could be substantially reduced by curtailing burning of tropical rainforests, which rarely burn naturally. The large estimated influence of El Nino suggests a relationship between climate and the burden of mortality attributable to LFS.",Estimated Global Mortality Attributable to Smoke from Landscape Fires,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+506364,"Much has been written over recent years about climate change, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and more recently the proposed control measures of Climate Change Levy (CCL) and carbon taxes. Most of this has looked at the scientific aspects of climate change and the macroeconomics of the embryonic government instruments intended to reduce GHG emissions. This paper will focus more on the practical issues for individual UK businesses in understanding whether this represents an opportunity or a threat and how a business can gain value from understanding its position. The paper concludes with a summary of the actions that companies will need to undertake and the available tools and assistance.",Understanding the business implications of greenhouse gas emissions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1627858,"Mountain glaciers and ice caps are contributing significantly to present rates of sea level rise and will continue to do so over the next century and beyond(1-5). The Canadian Arctic Archipelago, located off the northwestern shore of Greenland, contains one-third of the global volume of land ice outside the ice sheets(6), but its contribution to sea-level change remains largely unknown. Here we show that the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has recently lost 61 +/- 7 gigatonnes per year (Gt yr(-1)) of ice, contributing 0.17 +/- 0.02 mm yr(-1) to sea-level rise. Our estimates are of regional mass changes for the ice caps and glaciers of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago referring to the years 2004 to 2009 and are based on three independent approaches: surface mass-budget modelling plus an estimate of ice discharge (SMB+D), repeat satellite laser altimetry (ICESat) and repeat satellite gravimetry (GRACE). All three approaches show consistent and large mass-loss estimates. Between the periods 2004-2006 and 2007-2009, the rate of mass loss sharply increased from 31 +/- 8 Gt yr(-1) to 92 +/- 12 Gt yr(-1) in direct response to warmer summer temperatures, to which rates of ice loss are highly sensitive (64 +/- 14 Gt yr(-1) per 1 K increase). The duration of the study is too short to establish a long-term trend, but for 2007-2009, the increase in the rate of mass loss makes the Canadian Arctic Archipelago the single largest contributor to eustatic sea-level rise outside Greenland and Antarctica.",Sharply increased mass loss from glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+465191,"Large-scale biogeographical changes in the biodiversity of a key zooplankton group (calanoid copepods) were detected in the north-eastern part of the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas over the period 1960-1999. These findings provided key empirical evidence for climate change impacts on marine ecosystems at the regional to oceanic scale. Since 1999, global temperatures have continued to rise in the region. Here, we extend the analysis to the period 1958-2005 using all calanoid copepod species assemblages (nine species assemblages based on an analysis including a total of 108 calanoid species or taxa) and show that this phenomenon has been reinforced in all regions. Our study reveals that the biodiversity of calanoid copepods are responding quickly to sea surface temperature (SST) rise by moving geographically northward at a rapid rate up to about 23.16 km yr(-1). Our analysis suggests that nearly half of the increase in sea temperature in the northeast Atlantic and adjacent seas is related to global temperature rises (46.35% of the total variance of temperature) while changes in both natural modes of atmospheric and oceanic circulation explain 26.45% of the total variance of temperature. Although some SST isotherms have moved northwards by an average rate of up to 21.75 km yr(-1) (e.g. the North Sea), their movement cannot fully quantify all species assemblage shifts. Furthermore, the observed rates of biogeographical movements are far greater than those observed in the terrestrial realm. Here, we discuss the processes that may explain such a discrepancy and suggest that the differences are mainly explained by the fluid nature of the pelagic domain, the life cycle of the zooplankton and the lesser anthropogenic influence (e.g. exploitation, habitat fragmentation) on these organisms. We also hypothesize that despite changes in the path and intensity of the oceanic currents that may modify quickly and greatly pelagic zooplankton species, these organisms may reflect better the current impact of climate warming on ecosystems as terrestrial organisms are likely to significantly lag the current impact of climate change.",Rapid biogeographical plankton shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+102469,"This study was an attempt to document the indigenous Lepcha people's perception on climate change-related issues in five villages of Dzongu Valley located in Kanchandzonga Biosphere Reserve, India. Personal structured questionnaire was used for interview of 300 households selected randomly. Results showed that 85 % of the households have perceived climate change, mainly in the form of increasing temperature and unpredictable pattern of rainfall. In terms of climate change-related events, 75 % of the households believed that wind is becoming warmer and stronger over the past years. Majority of the households have observed changes in crop phenology, while about 90 % agreed that the incidences of insect pest and diseases have increased over the years, especially in their large cardamom crop. A comparison of community perceptions, climatic observations and scientific literature shows that the community have correctly perceived temperature change, unpredictable occurrence of rainfall and increased incidence of insect pest and diseases, which have largely influenced the experiences and perceptions regarding climate-related events. Results reveal that households have adopted the use of locally available material as mulches against soil erosion, to conserve the soil moisture and manage soil temperature. Majority of the households have diversified their cropping system through traditional agroforestry systems and intercropping. Unfortunately, most of the households were unaware about the scientific sustainable approaches to combating impact of climate change. This documentation will aid in assessing the needs in terms of actions and information for facilitating climate change-related adaptation locally in Sikkim state of India.","Farmers perception and awareness of climate change: a case study from Kanchandzonga Biosphere Reserve, India",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+587962,"The American pika (Ochotona princeps) inhabits talus slopes on isolated mountaintops in the Great Basin, where the species is susceptible to localized extirpations. Previous studies from the region related pika extirpations to proxies for climate and habitat quality, or to relatively short datasets on microclimate. This study extends previous research by modeling extirpation using new data from microclimates and microhabitats, and by including data on the vegetation available to individual pikas. We re-surveyed 25 sites historically occupied by pikas, and collected microclimatic and vegetative-cover data from each site. Sites of pika extirpation experienced higher summer temperatures and higher frequency of extremely warm days during 2005-2007 than did sites of pika persistence. Several aspects of vegetative cover also differed between persistence and extirpation sites, and relative forb cover was positively related to pika persistence. Evaluation of competing models within an information-theoretic framework suggests strong support for recent mean summer temperature as the primary driver of extirpations in this dataset. In agreement with other modeling efforts, this result supports the hypothesis that extirpation results from chronic heat stress during the summer months when pikas must gather and store food for the winter. In contrast with previous studies, we found less support for the hypothesis that extirpation results from acute cold stress during the winter months, possibly due to several differences in analytical methods. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.",Modeling contemporary range retraction in Great Basin pikas (Ochotona princeps) using data on microclimate and microhabitat,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+247080,"Fractional Outgoing Radiation, FOR (dimensionless), defined as the ratio of Outgoing Longwave Radiation, OLR (W/m(2)), to upward Surface Longwave Emission, SLE (W/m(2)), is a basic parameter for analyzing regional greenhouse effect. Here, FOR values are derived from a General Circulation Model by extracting OLR and SLE over areas in east-central Europe (at about 60degreesN) one hour after injecting appropriate CO2 concentration (adjustments to the atmospheric profile are thus excluded) to the Feb. 1 midnight simulation. The reduction in FOR is 0.00051 when atmospheric CO2 increases by 14 ppm, which is the currently expected per-decade increase. Fluctuations in the North-Atlantic surface winds produce fluctuations in FOR over central Europe: monthly-mean FOR in strong-wind February 1990 was 0.679, but 0.758 in weak-wind, lower cloud-fraction February 1996. Strong maritime-air advection in 1990 resulted thus in FOR reduced by 0.079, effect by two orders-of-magnitude stronger than the decrease effected by the per-decade increase in CO2.",Impact on regional winter climate by CO2 increases vs. by maritime-air advection,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1297341,"Social conflicts related to biodiversity conservation and adaptation policy to climate change in coastal areas illustrate the need to reinforce understanding of the ""matters of concern"" as well as the ""matters of fact"". In this paper, we argue that we must rethink adaptation from a new perspective, considering that humans together function as both ecological actors and social actors. Using international examples from the UNESCO world biosphere reserve network, we show that an ontological perspective may provide a simple and compact way to think about coupled infrastructure systems and systematic formalism, allowing for understanding of the relational matrix between actors, institutions and ecosystems. We contend that our formalism responds to three challenges. First, it encompasses the different regional contexts and policies that rely on the same ontology. Second, it provides a method to relate any local adaptation plan to the conservation paradigms that originate from the ecological modernization of policies. Third, it facilitates the discovery of drivers and processes involved in adaptation and management regime shifts by highlighting the way contextual factors configure, determine the structure of the action situation of the Institutional Analysis and Development framework (IAD) (Ostrom 2005), and how it operates.",A Conceptual Framework for Heuristic Progress in Exploring Management Regime Shifts in Biodiversity Conservation and Climate Change Adaptation of Coastal Areas,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+145764,"Background: The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect describes the phenomenon whereby cities are generally warmer than surrounding rural areas. Traditionally, temperature monitoring sites are placed outside of city centres, which means that point measurements do not always reflect the true air temperature of urban centres, and estimates of health impacts based on such data may under-estimate the impact of heat on public health. Climate change is likely to exacerbate heatwaves in future, but because climate projections do not usually include the UHI, health impacts may be further underestimated. These factors motivate a two-dimensional analysis of population weighted temperature across an urban area, for heat related health impact assessments, since populations are typically densest in urban centres, where ambient temperatures are highest and the UHI is most pronounced. We investigate the sensitivity of health impact estimates to the use of population weighting and the inclusion of urban temperatures in exposure data. Methods: We quantify the attribution of the UHI to heat related mortality in the West Midlands during the heatwave of August 2003 by comparing health impacts based on two modelled temperature simulations. The first simulation is based on detailed urban land use information and captures the extent of the UHI, whereas in the second simulation, urban land surfaces have been replaced by rural types. Results and conclusions: The results suggest that the UHI contributed around 50 % of the total heat-related mortality during the 2003 heatwave in the West Midlands. We also find that taking a geographical, rather than population-weighted, mean of temperature across the regions under-estimates the population exposure to temperatures by around 1 degrees C, roughly equivalent to a 20 % underestimation in mortality. We compare the mortality contribution of the UHI to impacts expected from a range of projected temperatures based on the UKCP09 Climate Projections. For a medium emissions scenario, a typical heatwave in 2080 could be responsible for an increase in mortality of around 3 times the rate in 2003 (278 vs. 90 deaths) when including changes in population, population weighting and the UHI effect in the West Midlands, and assuming no change in population adaptation to heat in future.","Attribution of mortality to the urban heat island during heatwaves in the West Midlands, UK",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+788415,"Overlaid to a general reduction of European beech and sessile oak tree growth over the recent decades in the Mediterranean Basin, tree-ring records from western Mediterranean populations display a stronger growth decrease than eastern populations. We investigate here to what extent the impact of sustained atmospheric circulation patterns in summertime can explain the observed spatial patterns of tree growth. We use Canonical Correlation Analysis, a statistical method that identifies the coupled patterns that are optimally correlated between two multivariate data sets. A general change in growth trends, shifting from a general increase during the period 1950-1981 to a decrease during the last three decades (1982-2012), can be attributed to increasing summer temperatures, which exert a dominant and negative influence on growth in both tree species across sites. However, summer precipitation has gained importance for growth, coinciding with the intensification of the geographical polarity in climate conditions across the Mediterranean Basin. This intensification during the last three decades can be traced back to a strengthening of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), which imparts an east-west dipole to summer climate in this region. Under predicted persistent stronger SNAO in the future, western populations would face harsher summer conditions than central and eastern rear-edge populations, due to decreasing precipitation and increasing temperatures in the western Mediterranean Basin. These results evidence the determinant role that changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns may play in the persistence of rear-edge temperate deciduous forests in the near future. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Large-scale atmospheric circulation enhances the Mediterranean East-West tree growth contrast at rear-edge deciduous forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+400688,"Despite increasing scientific and public concerns on the potential impacts of global ocean warming on marine biodiversity, very few empirical data on community-level responses to rising water temperatures are available other than for coral reefs. This study describes changes in temperate subtidal reef communities over decadal and regional scales in a location that has undergone considerable warming in recent decades and is forecast to be a 'hotspot' for future warming. Plant and animal communities at 136 rocky reef sites around Tasmania (south-east Australia) were censused between 1992 and 1995, and again in 2006 and 2007. Despite evidence of major ecological changes before the period of study, reef communities appeared to remain relatively stable over the past decade. Multivariate analyses and univariate metrics of biotic communities revealed few changes with time, although some species-level responses could be interpreted as symptomatic of ocean warming. These included fishes detected in Tasmania only in recent surveys and several species with warmer water affinities that appeared to extend their distributions further south. The most statistically significant changes observed in species abundances, however, were not related to their biogeographical affinities. The majority of species with changing abundance possessed lower to mid-range abundances rather than being common, raising questions for biodiversity monitoring and management. We suggest that our study encompassed a relatively stable period following more abrupt change, and that community responses to ocean warming may follow nonlinear, step-like trajectories.",Stability in temperate reef communities over a decadal time scale despite concurrent ocean warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+268226,"Observations on glacier extent from Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia give a detailed and unequivocal account of rapid shrinkage of tropical Andean glaciers since the Little Ice Age (LIA). This retreat however, was not continuous but interrupted by several periods of stagnant or even advancing glaciers, most recently around the end of the 20th century. New data from mass balance networks established on over a dozen glaciers allows comparison of the glacier behavior in the inner and outer tropics. It appears that glacier variations are quite coherent throughout the region, despite different sensitivities to climatic forcing such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, etc. In parallel with the glacier retreat, climate in the tropical Andes has changed significantly over the past 50-60 years. Temperature in the Andes has increased by approximately 0.1 degrees C/decade, with only two of the last 20 years being below the 1961-90 average. Precipitation has slightly increased in the second half of the 20th century in the inner tropics and decreased in the outer tropics. The general pattern of moistening in the inner tropics and drying in the subtropical Andes is dynamically consistent with observed changes in the large-scale circulation, suggesting a strengthening of the tropical atmospheric circulation. Model projections of future climate change in the tropical Andes indicate a continued warming of the tropical troposphere throughout the 21st century, with a temperature increase that is enhanced at higher elevations. By the end of the 21st century, following the SIZES A2 emission scenario. the tropical Andes may experience a massive warming on the order of 4.5-5 degrees C. Predicted changes in precipitation include an increase in precipitation during the wet season and a decrease during the dry season, which would effectively enhance the seasonal hydrological cycle in the tropical Andes. These observed and predicted changes in climate affect the tropical glacier energy balance through its sensitivity to changes in atmospheric humidity (which governs sublimation), precipitation (whose variability induces a positive feedback on albedo) and cloudiness (which controls the incoming long-wave radiation). In the inner tropics air temperature also significantly influences the energy balance, albeit not through the sensible heat flux, but indirectly through fluctuations in the rain-snow line and hence changes in albedo and net radiation receipts. Given the projected changes in climate, based on different IPCC scenarios for 2050 and 2080, simulations with a tropical glacier-climate model indicate that glaciers will continue to retreat. Many smaller, low-lying glaciers are already completely out of equilibrium with current climate and will disappear within a few decades. But even in catchments where glaciers do not completely disappear, the change in streamflow seasonality, due to the reduction of the glacial buffer during the dry season, will significantly affect the water availability downstream. In the short-term, as glaciers retreat and lose mass, they add to a temporary increase in runoff to which downstream users will quickly adapt, thereby raising serious sustainability concerns. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Climate change and tropical Andean glaciers: Past, present and future",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+636108,"Forest fire regimes are likely to experience considerable changes in the European Alps due to climatic changes. However, little is known about the recent regional fire history and the impact of local climate on the fire regime during the 20th century. We therefore reconstructed the fire history in a dry continental valley of the Swiss Alps (Valais) over the past 100 years based on documentary evidence, and investigated the relationship between the reconstructed fire regime and the local climatic variability. We compared the impact of temperature, precipitation, drought and dry foehn winds on fire frequency, extent of burnt area, and fire seasonality on various spatial and temporal scales. In the subalpine zone, the fire regime appears to have been mainly driven by temperature and precipitation, whereas these variables seem to have played only a secondary role in the colline-montane zones. Here, foehn winds and, probably, non-climatic factors seem to have been more important. Temperature and precipitation played a major role in shaping fire frequency and burnt area in the first half of the 20th century, but lost their importance during the second half. Our case study illustrates the occurrence of different fire regime patterns and their driving forces on small spatial scales (a few hundred square kilometers). We conclude that the strong rise in temperature over the past century has not profoundly changed the fire regime in Valais, but in the second half of the 20th century temperature was no longer a strong determinant for forest fires as compared to human activities or biomass availability in forests.",Linking Forest Fire Regimes and Climate-A Historical Analysis in a Dry Inner Alpine Valley,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3924928,"Aim Globally, species distribution patterns in the deep sea are poorly resolved, with spatial coverage being sparse for most taxa and true absence data missing. Increasing human impacts on deep-sea ecosystems mean that reaching a better understanding of such patterns is becoming more urgent. Cold-water stony corals (Order Scleractinia) form structurally complex habitats (dense thickets or reefs) that can support a diversity of other associated fauna. Despite their widely accepted ecological importance, records of scleractinian corals on seamounts are patchy and simply not available for most of the global ocean. The objective of this paper is to model the global distribution of suitable habitat for stony corals on seamounts. Location Seamounts worldwide. Methods We compiled a database containing all accessible records of scleractinian corals on seamounts. Two modelling approaches developed for presence-only data were used to predict global habitat suitability for seamount scleractinians: maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) and environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). We generated habitat-suitability maps and used a cross-validation process with a threshold-independent metric to evaluate the performance of the models. Results Both models performed well in cross-validation, although the Maxent method consistently outperformed ENFA. Highly suitable habitat for seamount stony corals was predicted to occur at most modelled depths in the North Atlantic, and in a circumglobal strip in the Southern Hemisphere between 20° and 50° S and shallower than around 1500 m. Seamount summits in most other regions appeared much less likely to provide suitable habitat, except for small near-surface patches. The patterns of habitat suitability largely reflect current biogeographical knowledge. Environmental variables positively associated with high predicted habitat suitability included the aragonite saturation state, and oxygen saturation and concentration. By contrast, low levels of dissolved inorganic carbon, nitrate, phosphate and silicate were associated with high predicted suitability. High correlation among variables made assessing individual drivers difficult. Main conclusions Our models predict environmental conditions likely to play a role in determining large-scale scleractinian coral distributions on seamounts, and provide a baseline scenario on a global scale. These results present a first-order hypothesis that can be tested by further sampling. Given the high vulnerability of cold-water corals to human impacts, such predictions are crucial tools in developing worldwide conservation and management strategies for seamount ecosystems. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.",Predicting global habitat suitability for stony corals on seamounts,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+600826,"1. Restoration of wildland fire to forests is a challenge when historical fire regimes have been altered. We studied four fires that burned over approximately 7865 ha on an altitudinal gradient in Grand Canyon National Park, USA, in 2003. The fires met criteria for the current USA policy allowing the restoration of fire's ecological role in forest landscapes: Wildland Fire Use for Resource Benefits. 2. After the fires burned out, we remeasured 82 permanent pre-established monitoring plots burned by the fires plus 43 additional plots on unburned companion sites. 3. The maximum height of charring of tree boles and basal area mortality increased in mean value and variability with altitude. At a low-altitude Pinus-Quercus site, tree density declined significantly but basal area was unchanged. At a mid-altitude mixed-conifer site and a high-altitude Picea/Abies/Populus site, both density and basal area declined. 4. The thinning effect of fire was concentrated on smaller, shorter, fire-susceptible trees. Small-diameter trees (< 20 cm diameter) made up 79-95% of all tree mortality. Shade-tolerant conifers, particularly true firs and spruce, experienced disproportionate mortality (31-82% basal area decline), while fire-resistant ponderosa pine and Douglas fir tended to survive (2-8% basal area decline). Delayed mortality between the first and second years following the fires accounted for only 4.2% of trees dying at the low-altitude site but 15.6% and 11.2% at the mid- and high-altitude sites, respectively. Regeneration density was highly variable but forest floor and woody debris declined in burned areas. 5. Synthesis and applications. This study shows that, even after an unusually long fire-free period (1880-2003), at the mid- and high-altitude burned sites fire effects were consistent with restoration of historical patterns, moving the ecosystems closer to historical reference conditions. Fires simultaneously reduced the living, dead and ladder fuels that made the forest vulnerable to uncharacteristically severe fire. These effects make the forests more resistant to the expected increases in fire size and severity under future climate conditions. Even at longer-than-historical fire intervals, the wildland fire use policy can benefit Grand Canyon forests.","Wildland fire effects on forest structure over an altitudinal gradient, Grand Canyon National Park, USA",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+512340,"Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in marine ecosystems(1-3). In early 2011, the marine ecosystems along the west coast of Australia-a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism(4,5)-experienced the highest-magnitude warming event on record. Sea temperatures soared to unprecedented levels and warming anomalies of 2-4 degrees C persisted for more than ten weeks along >2,000 km of coastline. We show that biodiversity patterns of temperate seaweeds, sessile invertebrates and demersal fish were significantly different after the warming event, which led to a reduction in the abundance of habitat-forming seaweeds and a subsequent shift in community structure towards a depauperate state and a tropicalization of fish communities. We conclude that extreme climatic events are key drivers of biodiversity patterns and that the frequency and intensity of such episodes have major implications for predictive models of species distribution and ecosystem structure, which are largely based on gradual warming trends.",An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1388057,"The article reviews the recent scientific literature and the authors' studies on this topic. Occupational conditions and psychological factors have been shown to play an important role in the etiopathogenesis of cardiovascular diseases. Their effect is often indirect, through damage to the central nervous, respiratory, and neuroendocrine systems. Hot climate in the workplace and intense infrared radiation cause the water and electrolyte imbalance and chronic hyperthermia and manifests as neurovegetative dystonia. The long-term effects of low temperatures condition ischemic lesions in circulatory system, trophic organ destruction. The influence of ultrahigh-frequency electromagnetic radiation on the cardiovascular system is directly related to the central nervous system and neurohumoral lesions. ""Microwave disease"" often manifests as polymorphic dystonia. Exposure to occupational vibration causes ""white finger"" syndrome or Raynaud's phenomenon together with cerebral vascular lesions. Recent studies have confirmed that noise as a chronic stressor causes the imbalance in the central and vegetative nervous systems and changes in homeostasis. Noise increases catecholamine and cholesterol concentration in blood, has an effect on plasma lipoprotein levels, increases heart rate, arterial blood pressure, and risk of myocardial infarction. Psychophysiological changes caused by long-term stress influence constant pathological changes in the central nervous system, endocrine and cardiovascular systems. The long-term effect of psychogenic stressors is very important in the etiopathogenesis of psychosomatic diseases.",The influence of occupational environment and professional factors on the risk of cardiovascular disease,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+283625,"Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high- resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate- related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human- induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.",Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+684436,"Determining the factors that influence the distribution of woody vegetation cover and resolving the sensitivity of woody vegetation cover to shifts in environmental forcing are critical steps necessary to predict continental-scale responses of dryland ecosystems to climate change. We use a 6-year satellite data record of fractional woody vegetation cover and an 11-year daily precipitation record to investigate the climatological controls on woody vegetation cover across the African continent. We find that-as opposed to a relationship with only mean annual rainfall-the upper limit of fractional woody vegetation cover is strongly influenced by both the quantity and intensity of rainfall events. Using a set of statistics derived from the seasonal distribution of rainfall, we show that areas with similar seasonal rainfall totals have higher fractional woody cover if the local rainfall climatology consists of frequent, less intense precipitation events. Based on these observations, we develop a generalized response surface between rainfall climatology and maximum woody vegetation cover across the African continent. The normalized local gradient of this response surface is used as an estimator of ecosystem vegetation sensitivity to climatological variation. A comparison between predicted climate sensitivity patterns and observed shifts in both rainfall and vegetation during 2009 reveals both the importance of rainfall climatology in governing how ecosystems respond to inter-annual fluctuations in climate and the utility of our framework as a means to forecast continental-scale patterns of vegetation shifts in response to future climate change.",Climatological determinants of woody cover in Africa,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1359817,"The influence of climatic factors on the growth of Corsican pine, growing at low elevation on acidic well-drained soils in western France, was evaluated by comparing annual earlywood, latewood and total ring indices with monthly temperature and precipitation data collected at Angers over the period 1922-1991. Latewood formation appeared to be more sensitive to climate than earlywood formation. Pointer years analysis and climatic models showed that summer drought was a major limiting-growth factor in the studied area. Extreme growth reductions specially highlighted the effects of low precipitation whereas response functions clearly underlined the importance of temperature. The climatic models accounted for 46%, 37% and 42% of the variability of total ring, earlywood and latewood indices, and suggested that the period of earlywood formation occurred mainly in early spring (May) whereas the growth of the latewood band was maximum in summer (July). Winter photosynthesis and the advance in the timing of the resumption of cambial activity were possible causes of the positive winter temperature correlation with earlywood. A cool and wet spring was also beneficial to growth as it affected the water balance of the toes at the beginning of the growing season. Prior October weather conditions also influenced growth, suggesting a preconditioning of the current year's growth by climate during the previous year. The regional climatic data revealed: no change in precipitation and thermal amplitude between 1950-1997; a significant (alpha = 0.01) increase in mean annual temperature of 1.1 degrees C, mean annual minimum temperature (1.5 degrees C), mean summer (July-August) tem perature (2.2 degrees C) and minimum summer temperature (2.3 degrees C). By increasing summer water stress, a steady rise may induce growth decrease and probably forest decline in the next years. These results should be taken into account when predicting possible responses of Corsican pine plantations to global change.","Climatic signals in earlywood, latewood and total ring width of Corsican pine from western France",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3322085,"Recently, climate change has increased the frequency of extreme weather events. In South Korea, extreme droughts are frequent and cause serious damage. To identify the risk of extreme drought, we need to calculate the hydrologic risk using probabilistic analysis methods. In particular, future hydrologic risk of extreme drought should be compared to that of the control period. Therefore, this study quantitatively assessed the future hydrologic risk of extreme drought in South Korea according to climate change scenarios based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. A threshold level method was applied to observation-based rainfall data and climate change scenario-based future rainfall data to identify drought events and extract drought characteristics. A bivariate frequency analysis was then performed to estimate the return period considering both duration and severity. The estimated return periods were used to calculate and compare hydrologic risks between the control period and the future. Results indicate that the average duration of drought events for the future was similar with that for the control period, however, the average severity increased in most future scenarios. In addition, there was decreased risk of maximum drought events in the Yeongsan River basin in the future, while there was increased risk in the Nakdong River basin. The median of risk of extreme drought in the future was calculated to be larger than that of the maximum drought in the control period.",Hydrologic Risk Assessment of Future Extreme Drought in South Korea Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2333346,"Seagrasses in the Great Barrier Reef region, particularly in coastal habitats, act as a buffer between catchment inputs and reef communities and are important habitat for fisheries and a food source for dugong and green turtle. Within the Great Barrier Reef region there are four different seagrass habitat types now recognised. The spatial and temporal dynamics of the different types of seagrass habitat is poorly understood. In general seagrass growth is limited by light, disturbance and nutrient supply, and changes to any or all of these limiting factors may cause seagrass decline. The capacity of seagrasses to recover requires either recruitment via seeds or through vegetative growth. The ability of seagrass meadows to recover from large scale loss of seagrass cover observed during major events such as cyclones or due to anthropogenic disturbances such as dredging will usually require regeneration from seed bank. Limited research into the role of pollutants on seagrass survival suggests there may be ongoing impacts due to herbicides, pesticides and other chemical contaminants. Further research and monitoring of seagrass meadow dynamics and the influence of changing water quality on these is needed to enhance our ability to manage seagrasses on the Great Barrier Reef. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Seagrass population dynamics and water quality in the Great Barrier Reef region: A review and future research directions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2089950,"Some regularities that are generally accepted in the theory about the development of sea coasts as applied to the East Arctic coast of Russia do not conform to reality. To find out the reasons for these contradictions, the connection between the coastal processes and the perennially frozen sediment of the underwater coastal slope in the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea was studied. The frozen state of the deposits of the coastal zone exerts a substantial influence on the coastal dynamics and determines several features of the thermoabrasion development. In particular, the subaqual permafrost does not allow the forming of a storm profile with dynamic balance. This fact causes the more effective action of the sea on the coastal cliffs and the more active recession of the frozen coasts as compared with their counterparts outside the cryolitozone.",Permafrost as a factor of the dynamics of the coastal zone of the Russian East Arctic Seas,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+296564,"Climate variability is examined and discussed in this work, emphasizing its influence over the fluctuation of soybean yield in the Pampas (central-eastern Argentina). Monthly data of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, thermal range and seasonal rainfall were analysed jointly with the soybean yield in the period 1973-2000. Low-frequency variability was significant only in the minimum temperature during November in almost all the stations. This situation is favourable to the crop since during this month, seed germination, a growth stage sensitive to low temperatures, takes place. In the crop's core production region, 72% of the series of soybean yield presented a positive trend. Except in years with extreme rainfall situations, interannual variability of the soybean yield is in phase with the seasonal rainfall interannual variability. During these years, losses in the soybean crop occurred, with yield negative anomalies greater than one standard deviation. Soybean yield showed spatial coherence at the local scale, except in the crop's core zone. The association between each climate variable and yield did not show a defined regional pattern. Summer high temperature and rainfall excesses during the period of maturity and harvest have the greatest negative impact on the crop, whilst higher minimum temperatures during the growing season favour high yields. The joint effect of climate variables over yield was studied with multivariate statistical models, assuming that the effect of other factors (such as soil, technology, pests) is contained in the residuals. The regression models represent the estimates of the yield satisfactorily (high percentage of explained variance) and can be used to assess expected anomalies of mean soybean yield for a particular year. However, the predictor variables of the yield depend on the region. Copyright (c) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society.",The impact of climate variability on soybean yields in Argentina. Multivariate regression,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+91426,"The out-of-phase population oscillations between anchovy and sardine have been attributed to climate changes. However, the biological processes causing these species alternations have remained unresolved. Here we propose a simple ""optimal growth temperature"" hypothesis, in which anchovy and sardine regime shifts are caused by differential optimal temperatures for growth rates during the early life stages. Dome-shaped relationships between growth rate and sea temperature were detected for both Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) and Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) larvae based on otolith microstructure analysis. The optimal growth rate for anchovy larvae occurred at 22.0 degrees C, whereas that for sardine larvae occurred at 16.2 degrees C. Ambient temperatures have historically fluctuated between these optima, which could lead to contrasting fluctuations in larval growth rates between the two species. This simple mechanism could potentially cause the shifts between the warm anchovy regime and the cool sardine regime in the western North Pacific. Although retrospective analysis suggested synergistic effects of other factors (e.g., trophic interactions and fishing), the optimal growth temperature concept would provide a possible biological mechanism of anchovy and sardine regime shifts.",Optimal growth temperature hypothesis: Why do anchovy flourish and sardine collapse or vice versa under the same ocean regime?,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+309287,"In this study, the ground surface temperature (GST) records from 16 meteorological stations, which are located in or adjacent to permafrost regions on the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), are analysed using MannKendal test and Sen's slope estimate methods. We revealed that the GSTs have shown statistically significant warming. On average, mean annual ground surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.60 degrees C decade1 over the period of 19802007, which is more pronounced than the increase of mean annual air temperature on the plateau. The winter ground surface warming is especially prominent, which is similar to the seasonal trends in changes of air temperature. As important parameters to assess the changes of ground thermal regime in cold regions, surface freezing and thawing indices were also studied. The nonparametric statistic test and estimate indicate that surface freezing and thawing indices both show significant variations (111.2 and 125.0 degrees C d decade1, respectively) on the central QTP. The intensive ground surface warming is responsible for the concurrent increase in permafrost temperatures at the long-term observation sites on the plateau. The close correlations between ground surface and permafrost temperatures indicate that the dramatic ground surface warming could have significant influence on the change of permafrost thermal regime in the study region. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society",Recent ground surface warming and its effects on permafrost on the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1468578,"1. Relationships between vegetation, climate and disturbance are likely to be altered in the near future as a result of changes in both climate and human impacts on ecosystems. These changes could trigger species losses and distribution shifts in sensitive (e.g. mountainous) ecosystems. Models project a 2.5-3 degrees C increase in global temperatures by the end of the 21st century, and combined with effects of current land-use abandonment (leading to the build-up of fuel material); these increases could cause future ecosystems to become similar to ecosystems of the first half of the Holocene when human impact was negligible. 2. A high-resolution macroremain record from a small subalpine lake in Italy allowed us to examine 8000 years of stand vegetation dynamics. Linkages between disturbance, vegetation and climate were deciphered by reconstructing local fire occurrence patterns from charcoal remains, characterizing plant species richness by rarefaction analysis, and regional climatic reconstructions in the light of the human archaeological context. 3. Before 5100 cal. year bp, forest ecosystems had fluctuating richness and an intermediate mean fire frequency. The climate was warmer and drier than today. From c. 5100 to 2200 cal. year bp when the climate became wetter, a higher fire frequency promoted the establishment of mixed ecosystems with several tree species, a herbaceous understorey and higher richness. The last 2200 years were characterized by a decrease in richness, a lower fire frequency, and lower temperatures and precipitation. Over the last 8000 years, the probability of fire has increased with time since the last fire, probably as a result of increased fuel-load or composition, which has assisted the spread of fire. 4. Synthesis. The fire frequency was higher when forest richness was higher, during periods of wetter climate. Temperatures had no correlation with the fire frequency and the ecosystem dynamics in the study region.",Holocene fires and a herb-dominated understorey track wetter climates in subalpine forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+100259,"One component of climate-fire interactions is the relationship between weather conditions concurrent with burning (i.e., fire danger) and the magnitude of fire activity. Here daily environmental conditions are associated with daily observations of fire activity within ecoregions across the continental United States (CONUS) by aligning the latter 12years of a 36year gridded fire danger climatology with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer fire products. Results reveal that although modern relationships (2003-2014) vary regionally, fires across the majority of CONUS are more likely to be present and burning more vigorously as fire danger increases. Applying modern relationships to the entire climatology (1979-2014) indicates that in the absence of other influences, changes in fire danger have significantly increased the number of days per year that fires are burning across 42-49% of CONUS (by area) while also significantly increasing daily fire growth and daily heat release across 37-45% of CONUS. Increases in the fire activity season length coupled with an intensification of daily burning characteristics resulted in a CONUS-wide +0.02Mhayr(-1) trend in burned area, a 10.6gm(-2)yr(-1) trend in the amount of fuel consumed per unit burned area, and ultimately a +0.51Tgyr(-1) trend in dry matter consumption. Overall, the results demonstrate regional variations in the response of fires to changes in fire danger and that weather conditions concurrent with burning have a three-pronged impact on the magnitude of fire activity by affecting the seasonal duration, spatial extent, and combustion intensity.",Impacts of changing fire weather conditions on reconstructed trends in US wildland fire activity from 1979 to 2014,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+401819,"[ 1] We document a strong teleconnection between Central Equatorial African (CEA) rainfall ( and Congo River discharge) and the large-scale circulation over the North Atlantic, throughout the boreal winter/spring season. Positive rainfall anomalies over CEA ( at interannual and multiannual timescales) are related to anomalous westerly midtropospheric zonal winds over the CEA/Atlantic region. These anomalies appear to be part of a coherent structure of zonal wind anomalies extending to the polar regions of the North Atlantic, similar to that associated with the NAO pattern. Idealised model simulations suggest that at least over the tropical and subtropical latitudes of the Atlantic/African sector such a signal may be associated with SST forcing from the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) region. We conclude that TNA SSTs may force these circulation anomalies over CEA at multi-annual timescales but at interannual timescales they may be relatively independent of TNA SSTs.",Climate variability in central equatorial Africa: Influence from the Atlantic sector,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+644197,"Transformative actions are increasingly being required to address changes in climate. As an aid to understanding and supporting informed decision-making regarding transformative change, we draw on theories from both the resilience and vulnerability literature to produce the Adaptation Action Cycles concept and applied framework. The resulting Adaptation Action Cycles provides a novel conceptualisation of incremental and transformative adaptation as a continuous process depicted by two concentric and distinct, yet linked, action learning cycles. Each cycle represents four stages in the decision-making process, which are considered to be undertaken over relatively short timeframes. The concept is translated into an applied framework by adopting a contextual, actor-focused suite of questions at each of the four stages. This approach compliments existing theories of transition and transformation by operationalising assessments at the individual and enterprise level. Empirical validation of the concept was conducted by collaborating with members of the Australian wine industry to assess their decisions and actions taken in response to climate change. The contiguous stages represented in the Adaptation Action Cycles aptly reflected the diverse range of decision-making and action pathways taken in recent years by those interviewed. Results suggest that incremental adaptation decision-making processes have distinct characteristics, compared with those used in transformative adaptation. We provide empirical data to support past propositions suggesting dependent relationships operate between incremental and transformative scales of adaptation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Informing adaptation responses to climate change through theories of transformation,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+38446,"Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change on population demography, biotic Interactions and ecosystem service is central to ecology. Long-term time series analysis of insect populations is crucial for analyzing the 'effect of climate change on plant-insect interactions in agro-ecological systems; yet such data are often lacking. Here, based on field experiments and the long-term time series of the overwintering adult cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) collected since 1975, we investigate the dynamic trend of H. armigera, as well as its driving forces and effects on the recruitment of H. armigera and crop yield. Results illustrated a shift to early eclosion of diapausing pupae due to global warming, extending the duration and abundance of adults in the overwintering generation. This then led to more larvae recruited in the first generation, and consequently damages the wheat at early growing stages. Our results suggest that the asynchronous effects of rising global surface temperature on the relative growth rate of spring crops and insect pests could intensify in the future, causing accentuated crop yield loss. To mitigate the adverse herbivore-mediated effect on crop yield in a warming climate, efficient cultivation measures and pest management are necessary, such as planting precocious crops with short growth period and timely control of insect pests. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Early eclosion of overwintering cotton bollworm moths from warming temperatures accentuates yield loss in wheat,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+746852,"Evidence mounts for the influence of climate variability on temporal trends in the phenology of many organisms including various species of fish. Accordingly, we examined variation in adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar run timing in thirteen Newfoundland and Labrador rivers where returns were monitored at fishways or fish-counting fences. Run timing varied significantly among rivers with the median date of return differing by up to 5weeks. Duration of runs was generally short with most adults returning over a period of three to 5weeks. A mixed model analysis incorporating a first-order autoregressive error structure was used to generalise changes in run timing among all monitored rivers. Results indicated that the median date of return has advanced by almost 12days over a 35-year interval from 1978 to 2012, while several individual rivers have advanced by almost 21days. The influence of climate on median timing was evident when the simultaneous effects of both climate and salmon abundance were controlled. We found earlier runs associated with overall warmer climate conditions on the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelf. Results contrast with those from the north-east Atlantic where Atlantic salmon are returning later in some rivers coincident with warming climate conditions.",Influence of climate and abundance on migration timing of adult Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) among rivers in Newfoundland and Labrador,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1878419,"In recent decades, hundreds of glaciers draining the Antarctic Peninsula (63 degrees to 70 degrees S) have undergone systematic and progressive change. These changes are widely attributed to rapid increases in regional surface air temperature, but it is now clear that this cannot be the sole driver. Here, we identify a strong correspondence between mid-depth ocean temperatures and glacier-front changes along the similar to 1000-kilometer western coastline. In the south, glaciers that terminate in warm Circumpolar Deep Water have undergone considerable retreat, whereas those in the far northwest, which terminate in cooler waters, have not. Furthermore, a mid-ocean warming since the 1990s in the south is coincident with widespread acceleration of glacier retreat. We conclude that changes in ocean-induced melting are the primary cause of retreat for glaciers in this region.",Ocean forcing of glacier retreat in the western Antarctic Peninsula,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+444361,"The variability of Pinus sylvestris growth over two geographic transects across Europe has been explored through a process-based forest growth model (HYDRALL: HYDRaulic constraints on ALLocation) which accounts for the effects of environmental conditions not only on short-term gas exchanges, but also on allocation and tree structure. The model has been validated against both eddy-covariance and growth data under contrasting environmental conditions. Forest growth was found to be reduced by low temperatures (-50%) and water stress (-37%) at the opposite extremes of the natural range of the species. Application of a functional model made it possible to partition growth reductions between individual processes. Gross primary production was severely affected by low temperatures and short vegetative periods at the northern extreme of the specific range (-53%), and by low air and soil humidity at the southern limit (-26%). The ratio between net and gross primary production was found to be rather constant across the temperate region, only increasing in the boreal zone in response to low temperatures (+20%). Under dry conditions, on the contrary, a substantial proportion of the reduction in aboveground productivity was attributed to the need to allocate increasing amounts of resources to fine root production and maintenance (+16%). Both short and long-term responses should be considered in the prediction of climate change impact on forests.",Growth patterns of Pinus sylvestris across Europe: a functional analysis using the HYDRALL model,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+201970,"This paper provides a synthesis of current knowledge on phytoplankton production, seasonality, and stratification in tropical African lakes and considers the effects of nutrient enrichment and the potential impacts of climate warming on phytoplankton production and composition. Tropical African lakes are especially sensitive to climate warming as they experience wide fluctuations in the thermocline over a narrow range of high water temperatures. Recent climate warming has reduced phytoplankton biomass and production in the lakes. A decline in the production of palatable chlorophytes and an increase in cyanobacteria has led to reduced zooplankton production and a consequent decline in fish stocks, all of which can be associated with the elevated water temperatures. This indicates that even moderate climate warming may destabilise phytoplankton dynamics in tropical African lakes, thereby reducing water quality and food resources for planktivorous fish, with consequent negative impacts on human livelihoods.",A REVIEW OF PHYTOPLANKTON DYNAMICS IN TROPICAL AFRICAN LAKES,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+113749,"Douglas-fir growth in the Pacific Northwest is thought to be water limited. However, discerning the relative influence of air temperature and plant available soil water (W) on growth is difficult because they interact with each other, with other climate factors and with the inherent seasonal timing of cambial activity. Douglas-fir growth response to air temperature and W patterns during the growing season was examined using time series regression analysis of dendrometer data collected at approximately four-week intervals from 1998 through 2009. Five study sites were located in mature forest stands along an elevation gradient from the Pacific coast to the west slope of the Cascade Mountains (similar to 1200 m) in Oregon, USA. Maximum daily air temperature (T) and W were similar in relative importance to tree growth at four of the five sites. W was substantially more important at one site. Growth rate increased with T to an optimum (T-opt) and decreased with higher T. At the two drier sites T and W affected growth interactively in that T-opt decreased with decreasing W. We conclude that both T and W affect growth and that T consistently limits growth at three of the five sites and at all sites in years with above average summer temperature. Should climate change result in hotter summers in the region as predicted by climate models, we suggest that Douglas-fir will experience progressive temperature limitation. Published by Elsevier B.V.","The importance of seasonal temperature and moisture patterns on growth of Douglas-fir in western Oregon, USA",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1291829,"Root phenology is important in controlling carbon and nutrient fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, yet, remains largely unexplored, especially in the Arctic. We compared below- and aboveground phenology and ending of the growing season in two contrasting vegetation types of subarctic tundra: heath and meadow, and their response to experimental warming in autumn. Root phenology was measured in-situ with minirhizotrons and compared with aboveground phenology assessed with repeat digital photography. The end of the growing season, both below- and aboveground, was similar in meadow and heath and the belowground growing season ended later than aboveground in the two vegetation types. Root growth was higher and less equally distributed over time in meadow compared to heath. The warming treatment increased air and soil temperature by 0.5 A degrees C and slightly increased aboveground greenness, but did not affect root growth or prolong the below- and aboveground growing season in either of the vegetation types. These results imply that vegetation types differ in root dynamics and suggest that other factors than temperature control autumnal root growth in these ecosystems. Further investigations of root phenology will help to identify those drivers, in which including responses of functionally contrasting vegetation types will help to estimate how climate change affects belowground processes and their roles in ecosystem function.",Autumnal warming does not change root phenology in two contrasting vegetation types of subarctic tundra,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3228199,"Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75 degrees C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2 degrees C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4 degrees C and 2 degrees C mean annual warming, and 7 degrees C and 3 degrees C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes.",The polar regions in a 2 degrees C warmer world,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+603785,"Climate change could have significant impacts on hydrology. This paper uses UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) products to assess the impacts on flood frequency in Britain. The main UKCP09 product comprises conditional probabilistic information on changes in a number of climate variables on a 25 x 25 km grid across the UK (the Sampled Data change factors). A second product is a Weather Generator which produces time-series of current weather variables and future weather variables based on the Sampled Data and consistent with the change factors. A third product comprises time-series from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble which were used to downscale Global Climate Models (GCMs) on which the projections are based and whose outputs were used in the production of the Sampled Data. This paper compares the use of Sampled Data change factors, Weather Generator time-series, RCM-derived change factors and RCM time-series. Each is used to provide hydrological model inputs for nine catchments, to assess impacts for the 2080s (A1B emissions). The results show relatively good agreement between methods for most catchments, with the four median values for a catchment generally being within 10% of each other. There are also some clear differences, with the use of time-series generally leading to a greater uncertainty range than the use of change factors because the latter do not allow for the effects of, or changes in, natural variability. Also, the use of Weather Generator time-series leads to much greater impacts than the other methods for one catchment. The results suggest that climate impact studies should not necessarily rely on the application of just one UKCP09 product, as each has different strengths and weaknesses.",Comparison of the use of alternative UKCP09 products for modelling the impacts of climate change on flood frequency,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3982004,"Two species of microsporidia, Nosema apis and Nosema ceranae, are obligate intracellular parasites that are widespread in the world and cause the infectious disease (Nosemosis) of the Western honey bee Apis mellifera. Information on the prevalence and distribution of Nosema species in North Asia conditions is scarce. The main aim of the present study is to determine the prevalence of Nosema spp. (Nosemosis) in honey bees inhabiting some inland regions of North Asia (Western and Eastern Siberia, Altai Territory, Russia, and northeastern part of Kazakhstan). The objective of the paper is also to assess the influence of climatic factors on the spread of N. ceranae. Eighty apiaries in four ecological regions of North Asia (southern taiga, sub-taiga zone, forest steppe, and mountain taiga forests) were investigated with regard to distribution, prevalence, and diversity of Nosema infection in honey bees using duplex-PCR. Nosema infected bees were found in 65% apiaries of ecoregions studied, and coinfection was predominant (36.3% of Nosema-positive apiaries). Both N. apis and N. ceranae occur across subarctic and warm summer continental climates, but while N. apis predominates in the former, N. ceranae is more predominant in the latter. No statistically significant differences in Nosema distribution were identified in various climatic zones. In the sub-taiga zone (subarctic climate), low presence of colonies with pure N. ceranae and a significantly higher proportion of coinfection apiaries were revealed. Long-term epidemiological study of Nosema spp. prevalence in the sub-taiga zone showed a surprising percentage increase of Nosema-positive apiaries from 46.2% to 74.1% during 2012-2017. From 2012 to 2015, N. apis became a predominant species, but in 2016-2017, the coinfection was mainly detected. In conclusion, the results of this investigation showed that N. ceranae is widespread in all study ecoregions of North Asia where it exists in combination with the N. apis, but there is no replacement of N. apis by N. ceranae in the studied bee populations.",Prevalence of the Microsporidian Nosema spp. in Honey Bee Populations (Apis mellifera) in Some Ecological Regions of North Asia.,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+218501,"Knowledge of farmers' perceptions of and adaptations to climate change is important to inform policies addressing the risk of climate change to farmers. This case study explored those issues in the Melamchi Valley of Nepal through a survey of 365 households and focus group discussions in 6 communities using a Community-Based Risk Screening Tool-Adaptation and Livelihoods (CRiSTAL). Analysis of climate trends in the study area for 1979-2009 showed that mean annual temperatures rose by 1.02 degrees C and the frequency of drought increased measurably after 2003. Farmers reported increases in crop pests, hailstorms, landslides, floods, thunderstorms, and erratic precipitation as climate-related hazards affecting agriculture. They responded in a variety of ways including changing farming practices, selling livestock, milk, and eggs, and engaging in daily wage labor and seasonal labor migration. With more efficient support and planning, some of these measures could be adjusted to better meet current and future risks from climate change.",Farmers' Perceptions of and Adaptations to Changing Climate in the Melamchi Valley of Nepal,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+294993,"Human-induced environmental changes, especially eutrophication, and fluctuations of natural environmental conditions under the changes in climate and solar activity affect the reproduction and growth of various fish species and communities in the Baltic Sea. The importance of human impacts has increased considerably during the last decades, overshadowing in many cases natural factors. High exploitation rates have depressed some valuable fish species and affected the species dominance hierarchy. Oxygen depletion in deeper layers progressively deteriorates the living conditions of certain marine species. Mass immigration of nonindigenous species with ballast waters can seriously affect ecosystems and fish stocks. The summary effect of these variables upon marine, relict and freshwater species can yield unexpected results. Fish resources should be properly assessed and managed by their natural units (populations). Based on cyclic fluctuations of global climatic processes, composition of long-term forecasts on changes in the structure and abundance of fish fauna should be started.",Fish stocks in the Baltic Sea: Finite or infinite resource?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1627856,"Assessments of the state of health of Hindu-Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya glaciers and their contribution to regional hydrology and global sea-level rise suffer from a severe lack of observations(1). The globally averaged mass balance of glaciers and ice caps is negative(1-3). An anomalous gain of mass has been suggested for the Karakoram glaciers(2,4-6), but was not confirmed by recent estimates of mass balance. Furthermore, numerous glacier surges in the region that lead to changes in glacier length and velocity(7-11) complicate the interpretation of the available observations. Here, we calculate the regional mass balance of glaciers in the central Karakoram between 1999 and 2008, based on the difference between two digital elevation models. We find a highly heterogeneous spatial pattern of changes in glacier elevation, which shows that ice thinning and ablation at high rates can occur on debris-covered glacier tongues. The regional mass balance is just positive at +0.11 +/- 0.22 m yr(-1) water equivalent and in agreement with the observed reduction of river runoff that originates in this area(12). Our measurements confirm an anomalous mass balance in the Karakoram region and indicate that the contribution of Karakoram glaciers to sea-level rise was -0.01 mm yr(-1) for the period from 1999 to 2008, 0.05 mm yr(-1) lower than suggested before(13).",Slight mass gain of Karakoram glaciers in the early twenty-first century,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1622389,"FORD, M., 2012. Shoreline changes on an urban atoll in the central Pacific Ocean: Majuro atoll, Marshall Islands. Journal of Coastal Research, 28(1), 11-22. West Palm Beach (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Majuro is the capital and most populated atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands and is located approximately 3700 km W-SW of Oahu, Hawaii. Like other atolls, Majuro is considered highly vulnerable to sea level rise. One of the widely perceived impacts of sea level rise on atoll islands is widespread chronic erosion. Using a combination of aerial photos and satellite imagery, this study presents an analysis of shoreline change over a 34- to 37-year study period, characterized by rapidly increasing population, coastal development, and rising sea level (3.0 mm y(-1)). Results show most (93%) urban and rural villages have increased in size over the study period. Shoreline change analysis indicates the urban area has expanded both toward the lagoon and onto the ocean-facing reef flat. Shoreline change within the urban area of Majuro has been largely driven by widespread reclamation for a mix of residential, commercial, and industrial activities. Rural areas of the atoll typically have lower rates of shoreline change relative to those of urban areas. Analysis indicates that the rural lagoon shore is predominantly eroding, whereas the ocean-facing shore is largely accreting. Any shoreline response to sea level rise along the Majuro coast is likely masked by widespread anthropogenic impacts to the coastal system.","Shoreline Changes on an Urban Atoll in the Central Pacific Ocean: Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+794094,"Projected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture-based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzania production, predicted by an agro-meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availability index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963-2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios in terms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013-2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043-2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P.maximum production related to variation in temperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual production under future climate scenarios was predicted to increase by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central-west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with larger increases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P.maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario.",Panicum maximum cv. Tanzania: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+169324,"Surface temperatures were extracted from nighttime thermal infrared imagery of 167 large inland water bodies distributed worldwide beginning in 1985 for the months July through September and January through March. Results indicate that the mean nighttime surface water temperature has been rapidly warming for the period 1985-2009 with an average rate of 0.045 +/- 0.011 degrees C yr(-1) and rates as high as 0.10 +/- 0.01 degrees C yr(-1). Worldwide the data show far greater warming in the mid- and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere than in low latitudes and the southern hemisphere. The analysis provides a new independent data source for assessing the impact of climate change throughout the world and indicates that water bodies in some regions warm faster than regional air temperature. The data have not been homogenized into a single unified inland water surface temperature dataset, instead the data from each satellite instrument have been treated separately and cross compared. Future work will focus on developing a single unified dataset which may improve uncertainties from any inter-satellite biases. Citation: Schneider, P., and S. J. Hook (2010), Space observations of inland water bodies show rapid surface warming since 1985, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22405, doi: 10.1029/2010GL045059.",Space observations of inland water bodies show rapid surface warming since 1985,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1519955,"PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Mediterranean-type climate ecosystems experience significant variability in precipitation within and across years and may be characterized by periods of extreme drought followed by a brief, high-intensity precipitation pulse. Rapid root growth could be a key factor in effective utilization of precipitation pulses, leading to higher rates of seedling establishment. Changes in root growth rate are rarely studied, however, and patterns in seedling root traits are not well explored. We investigated the influence of an extreme postdrought precipitation event on seedlings that occur in southern California coastal sage scrub. METHODS: We measured root elongation rate, root tip appearance rate, new leaf appearance rate, and canopy growth rate on 18 mediterranean species from three growth forms. KEY RESULTS: Root elongation rate responded more strongly to the precipitation pulse than did root tip appearance rate and either metric of aboveground growth. The majority of species exhibited a significant change in root growth rate within 1 week of the pulse. Responses varied in rapidity and magnitude across species, however, and were not generally predictable based on growth form. CONCLUSIONS: While the majority of species exhibited shifts in belowground growth following the pulse, the direction and magnitude of these morphological responses were highly variable within growth form. Understanding the implications of these different response strategies for plant fitness is a crucial next step to forecasting community dynamics within ecosystems characterized by resource pulses.",Rapid root responses of seedlings exposed to a postdrought water pulse,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+618701,"Recent rapid climatic changes are associated with dramatic changes in phenology of plants and animals, with optimal timing of reproduction advancing considerably in the northern hemisphere. However, some species may not have advanced their timing of breeding sufficiently to continue reproducing optimally relative to the occurrence of peak food availability, thus becoming mismatched compared with their food sources. The degree of mismatch may differ among species, and species with greater mismatch may be characterized by declining populations. Here we relate changes in spring migration timing by 100 European bird species since 1960, considered as an index of the phenological response of bird species to recent climate change, to their population trends. Species that declined in the period 1990-2000 did not advance their spring migration, whereas those with stable or increasing populations advanced their migration considerably. On the other hand, population trends during 1970-1990 were predicted by breeding habitat type, northernmost breeding latitude, and winter range (with species of agricultural habitat, breeding at northern latitudes, and wintering in Africa showing an unfavorable conservation status), but not by change in migration timing. The association between population trend in 1990-2000 and change in migration phenology was not confounded by any of the previously identified predictors of population trends in birds, or by similarity in phenotype among taxa due to common descent. our findings imply that ecological factors affecting population trends can change over time and suggest that ongoing climatic changes will increasingly threaten vulnerable migratory bird species, augmenting their extinction risk.",Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+275349,"Understanding impacts of drought on tree growth and forest health is of major concern given projected climate change. Droughts may become more common in the Southwest due to extreme temperatures that will drive increased evapotranspiration and lower soil moisture, in combination with uncertain precipitation changes. Utilizing similar to 1.3 million tree-- ring widths from the International Tree Ring Data Bank representing 10 species (eight conifers, two oaks) in the Southwest, we evaluated the effects of drought on tree growth. We categorized ring widths by formation year in relation to drought (pre-drought, drought year, and post-drought), and we used a mixed-effects model to estimate the effects of current and antecedent precipitation and temperature on tree growth during the post-drought recovery period. This allowed us to assess changes in sensitivity of tree growth to precipitation and temperature at multiple timescales following multiple droughts, and to evaluate drought resistance and recovery in these species. The effects of precipitation and temperature on ring widths following drought varied among species and time since drought. Across species, 16% of the climate effects (i.e., ""sensitivities"") were significantly different from their pre-drought values. Species differed, with some showing increased sensitivities to precipitation and temperature following drought, and others showing-decreased sensitivities. Furthermore, some species (e.g., Abies concolor and Pinus ponderosa) showed low resistance and slow recovery, with changes in growth sensitivities persisting up to 5 yr; others (e.g., Juniper spp.) showed high resistance, such that their climatic sensitivities did not change. Among species, the importance of different antecedent climate variables changed with time since drought. Though a majority of species responded positively to same-year precipitation pre-drought, all 10 species were positively affected by same-year precipitation the second year after drought. Our results demonstrate tree growth sensitivities vary among species and with time since drought, raising questions about physiological mechanisms and implications for forest health under future drought.",Legacy effects of drought in the southwestern United States: A multi-species synthesis,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3306048,"A combination of drought and high temperatures (""global-change-type drought"") is projected to become increasingly common in Mediterranean climate regions. Recently, Southern California has experienced record-breaking high temperatures coupled with significant precipitation deficits, which provides opportunities to investigate the impacts of high temperatures on the drought sensitivity of Mediterranean climate vegetation. Responses of different vegetation types to drought are quantified using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the period 2000-2017. The contrasting responses of the vegetation types to drought are captured by the correlation and regression coefficients between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). A novel bootstrapping regression approach is used to decompose the relationships between the vegetation sensitivity (NDVI-PDSI regression slopes) and the principle climate factors (temperature and precipitation) associated with the drought. Significantly increased sensitivity to drought in warmer locations indicates the important role of temperature in exacerbating vulnerability; however, spatial precipitation variations do not demonstrate significant effects in modulating drought sensitivity. Based on annual NDVI response, chaparral is the most vulnerable community to warming, which will probably be severely affected by hotter droughts in the future. Drought sensitivity of coastal sage scrub (CSS) is also shown to be very responsive to warming in fall and winter. Grassland and developed land will likely be less affected by this warming. The sensitivity of the overall vegetation to temperature increases is particularly concerning, as it is the variable that has had the strongest secular trend in recent decades, which is expected to continue or strengthen in the future. Increased temperatures will probably alter vegetation distribution, as well as possibly increase annual grassland cover, and decrease the extent and ecological services provided by perennial woody Mediterranean climate ecosystems as well.",Quantifying Drought Sensitivity of Mediterranean Climate Vegetation to Recent Warming: A Case Study in Southern California,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+770076,"Climate is well known as an important determinant of biogeography. Although climate is directly important for vegetation composition in the boreal forests, these ecosystems are strongly sensitive to an indirect effect of climate via fire disturbance. However, the driving balance of fire disturbance and climate on composition is poorly understood. In this study, we quantitatively analyzed their individual contributions for the boreal forests of the Heilongjiang Province, China, and their response to climate change using four warming scenarios (+1.5 degrees, 2 degrees, 3 degrees, and 4 degrees C). This study employs the statistical methods of Redundancy Analysis (RDA) and variation partitioning combined with simulation results from a SErgey VERsion Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SEVER-DGVM), and remote sensing datasets of global land cover (GLC2000) and the third version of Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3). Results show that the vegetation distribution for the present day is mainly determined directly by climate (35%) rather than fire (1-10.9%). However, with a future global warming of 1.5 degrees C, local vegetation composition will be determined by fires rather than climate (36.3% > 29.3%). Above 1.5 degrees C warming, temperature will be more important than fires in regulating vegetation distribution although other factors such as precipitation can also contribute. The spatial pattern in vegetation composition over the region, as evaluated by Moran's Eigenvector Map (MEM), has a significant impact on local vegetation coverage; for example, composition at any individual location is highly related to that in its neighborhood. It represents the largest contribution to vegetation distribution in all scenarios, but will not change the driving balance between climate and fires. Our results are highly relevant for forest and wildfires' management.",Present-day and future contribution of climate and fires to vegetation composition in the boreal forest of China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+779330,"Context Cities have elevated temperatures compared to rural areas, a phenomenon known as the ""urban heat island''. Higher temperatures increase the risk of heat-related mortality, which will be exacerbated by climate change. Objectives To examine the impact of climate change and urban growth on future urban temperatures and the potential for increased heat stress on urban residents. Methods We conducted a systematic review of scientific articles from Jan 2000 to May 2016. Results The majority (n = 49, = 86%) of studies examined climate change and the urban heat island in isolation, with few (8) considering their combined effect. Urban growth was found to have a large impact on local temperatures, in some cases by up to 5 degrees C in North-east USA. In some locations climate change increased the heat island, such as Chicago and Beijing, and in others decreased it, such as Paris and Brussels. When the relative impact of both factors was considered, the temperature increase associated with the urban heat island was always higher. Few studies (9) considered heat stress and its consequences for urban populations. Important contributors to urban temperatures, such as variation in urban density and anthropogenic heat release, were often excluded from studies. Conclusions We identify a need for an increased research focus on (1) urban growth impact on the urban heat island in climate change studies; (2) heat stress; and, (3) variation in urban density and its impacts on anthropogenic heat. Focussing on only one factor, climate change or urban growth, risks underestimating future urban temperatures and hampering adaptation.",The impact of urbanization and climate change on urban temperatures: a systematic review,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+777837,"Many species of plants and animals have advanced their phenology in response to climate warming in recent decades. Most of the evidence available for these shifts is based on data from the last few decades, a period coinciding with rapid climate warming. Baseline data is required to put these recent phenological changes in a long-term context. We analysed the phenological response of 51 resident British butterfly species using data from 83 500 specimens in the collections of the Natural History Museum, London, covering the period 1880-1970. Our analysis shows that only three species significantly advanced their phenology between 1880 and 1970, probably reflecting the relatively small increase in spring temperature over this period. However, the phenology of all but one of the species we analysed showed phenological sensitivity to inter-annual climate variability and a significant advancement in phenology in years in which spring or summer temperatures were warm and dry. The phenologies of butterfly species were more sensitive to weather if the butterfly species was early flying, southerly distributed, and a generalist in terms of larval diet. This observation is consistent with the hypothesis that species with greater niche breadth may be more phenologically sensitive than species with important niche constraints. Comparison of our results with post-1976 data from the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme show that species flying early in the year had a greater rate of phenological advancement prior to the mid-1970s. Additionally, prior to the mid-1970s, phenology was influenced by temperatures in March or April, whereas since 1976, February temperature had a stronger influence on the phenology. These results suggest that early flying species may be approaching the limits of phenological advancement in response to recent climate warming.",The influence of life history traits on the phenological response of British butterflies to climate variability since the late-19th century,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2150008,"Limited attention has been given to the drivers of customer behavior that originate from less direct factors, such as weather. Weather is known to significantly alter consumers' moods and consequently their behavior. Building on the theoretical alignment between weather, mood, and consumer behavior, this research examined how specific weather factors drive the valence of consumer comments. Furthermore, we explore the relationship between perceived weather, consumers' moods and affective experience, and word-of-mouth. By analyzing secondary data from 32 restaurants belonging to a national fast-casual chain, this research demonstrates that weather factors such as rain, temperature, and barometric pressure drive consumers' complaint behavior in restaurants. Additionally, the findings of a survey study and an experimental study indicate that mood and affective experience mediate the relationship between perceived weather and word-of-mouth.",It's Raining Complaints! How Weather Factors Drive Consumer Comments and Word-of-Mouth,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+794420,"Climate change has serious impacts on forest services with regard to the spatial and temporal distribution of water within catchments. Hence, combined forest and catchment management in a changing climate is a crucial concern for people and society. To assess hydrological processes and water resources in two forested headwater catchments in south-west Germany the physical based hydrological model ArcAPEX was calibrated to investigate climate change scenarios for the near (2021-2050) and far (2071-2100) future. Even though the trend in temperature is positive in most regional climate change scenarios for south-west Germany, the precipitation trend is quite ambiguous. Different precipitation scenarios give access to the possible bandwidth between water stress and flood generation. Our results can be used to describe water resources and discharge characteristics under conditions of different land use change scenarios. Management option for a sustainable forestry and flood mitigation will be to spread the risk by creating forests with a high biodiversity and a prioritization of forest services and functions. The principle is to find no-regret decisions. In this sense, final decisions should not be taken too early, and several options should be kept open, such as dealing with increasingly frequent droughts on one hand and increased runoff generation on the other hand. Thus, it should remain possible for forest and catchment management authorities to react to possible developments in an uncertain future.",The impacts of a changing climate on catchment water balance and forest management,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+646435,"Clear-cut evidences of global environmental change in Colombia are discussed for diverse hydro-climatic records, and illustrated herein for increasing minimum temperature and decreasing annual maximum river flows records. As a consequence, eight tropical glaciers disappeared from the Colombian Andes during the 20th century, and the remaining six have experienced alarming retreat rates during the last decade. Here we report an updated estimation of retreat rates in the six remaining glacierized mountain ranges of Colombia for the period 1987-2007, using Landsat TM and TM+ imagery. Analyses are performed using detailed pre-processing, processing and post-processing satellite imagery techniques. Alarming retreat rates are confirmed in the studied glaciers, with an overall area shrinkage from 60 km2 in 2002, to 55.4 km2 in 2003, to less than 45 km2 in 2007. Assuming such linear loss rate (∼3 km2 per year), for the near and medium term, the total collapse of the Colombian glaciers can be foreseen by 2022, but diverse physical mechanisms discussed herein would exacerbate the shrinkage processes, thus prompting us to forecast a much earlier deadline by the late 2010-2020 decade, long before the 100 years foreseen by the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. This forecast demands detailed monitoring studies of mass and energy balances. Our updated estimations of Colombia's glacier retreat rates posse serious challenges for highly valuable ecosystem services, including water supply of several large cities and hundreds of rural settlements along the Colombian Andes, but also for cheap and renewable hydropower generation which provides 80% of Colombia's demand. Also, the identified changes threaten the survivability of unique and fragile ecosystems likeparamos&lt;/ i&gt; and cloud forests, in turn contributing to exacerbate social unrest and ongoing environmental problems in the tropical Andes which have been identified as the most criticalhotspotfor biodiversity on Earth. Colombia requires support from the global adaptation fund to develop research, and to design policies, strategies and tools to cope with these urgent social and environmental threats.",Reassessment of Colombia's tropical glaciers retreat rates: Are they bound to disappear during the 2010-2020 decade?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+587770,"Historical temperature and precipitation extremes and their potential future changes are quantified and evaluated throughout the landmass of China. A statistical model of climate extremes based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to both historical climate data and bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) downscaled Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. The results indicate relatively moderate historical warm extreme conditions in China with regional means of maximum temperature 28.9, 29.4, and 29.8 A degrees C for 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods, respectively, whereas the corresponding regional means of minimum temperature are -20.1, -20.8, and -21.5 A degrees C, manifesting a downward trend northwardly with relative larger regional variations in cold extremes. The historical precipitation extremes also decline gradually from south-southeast toward northwest with significant regional differences. As for the future, the warm extremes are expected to aggravate by roughly 1.66-4.92 A degrees C projected by CMIP5, indicating larger increasing rate and spatial differences compared to cold extremes. The extreme precipitation is projected to increase 7.9-13.4 %, the dry regions would see a larger increasing rate compared to wet regions. The increasing radiative forcing concentration would trigger upward variations in both temperature and precipitation extreme magnitudes. Also, the warm extreme changes are more sensitive to the radiative forcing concentration than the cold extremes. The CMIP5 projections basically maintain a favorable inter-model consistency in temperature and rainfall extreme simulation for the future, but the inter-model difference of warm extremes is larger than cold extremes.",Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in China: past and future,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+403517,"Is El Nino one phase of a continual, self-sustaining natural mode of the coupled ocean-atmosphere that has La Nina as the complementary phase? Or is El Nino a temporary departure from ""normal"" conditions ""triggered"" by a random disturbance such as a burst of westerly winds? A growing body of evidence-stability analyses, studies of the energetics, simulations that reproduce the statistics of sea surface temperature variations in the eastern equatorial Pacific-indicates that reality corresponds to a compromise between these two possibilities: The observed Southern Oscillation between El Nino and La Nina corresponds to a weakly damped mode that is sustained by random disturbances. This means that the predictability of El Nino is limited by the continual presence of ""noise"" so that forecasts should be probabilistic. The Southern Oscillation is also subject to decadal modulations. How it will be influenced by global warming is a matter of considerable uncertainty.",Is El Nino sporadic or cyclic?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3888853,"Experiments were conducted on olive plants in controlled environments to determine the effect of conidial concentration, leaf age, temperature, continuous and interrupted leaf wetness periods, and relative humidity (RH) during the drier periods that interrupted wet periods, on olive leaf spot (OLS) severity. As inoculum concentration increased from 1·0×102 to 2·5×105conidiamL-1, the severity of OLS increased at all five temperatures (5, 10, 15, 20 and 25°C). A simple polynomial model satisfactorily described the relationship between the inoculum concentration at the upper asymptote (maximum number of lesions) and temperature. The results showed that for the three leaf age groups tested (2-4, 6-8 and 10-12weeks old) OLS severity decreased significantly (P&lt;0·001) with increasing leaf age at the time of inoculation. Overall, temperature also affected (P&lt;0·001) OLS severity, with the lesion numbers increasing gradually from 5°C to a maximum at 15°C, and then declining to a minimum at 25°C. When nine leaf wetness periods (0, 6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, 72 and 96h) were tested at the same temperatures, the numbers of lesions increased with increasing leaf wetness period at all temperatures tested. The minimum leaf wetness periods for infection at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25°C were 18, 12, 12, 12 and 24h, respectively. The wet periods during early infection processes were interrupted with drying periods (0, 3, 6, 12, 18 and 24h) at two levels of RH (70 and 100%). The length of drying period had a significant (P&lt;0·001) effect on disease severity, the effect depending on the RH during the interruption. High RH (100%) resulted in greater disease severity than low RH (70%). A polynomial equation with linear and quadratic terms of temperature, wetness and leaf age was developed to describe the effects of temperature, wetness and leaf age on OLS infection, which could be incorporated as a forecasting component of an integrated system for the control of OLS. © 2010 The Authors. Plant Pathology © 2010 BSPP.","Effects of temperature, inoculum concentration, leaf age, and continuous and interrupted wetness on infection of olive plants by Spilocaea oleagina",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+214555,"Dengue fever (DF) is the most serious mosquito-borne viral disease in the world and is significantly affected by temperature. Although associations between DF and temperatures have been reported repeatedly, conclusions have been inconsistent. Six databases were searched up to 23 March 2014, without language and geographical restrictions. The articles that studied the correlations between temperatures and dengue were selected, and a random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals. Of 1589 identified articles, 137 were reviewed further, with 33 satisfying inclusion criteria. The closest associations were observed between mean temperature from the included studies (23.2-27.7 degrees C) and DF (OR 35.0% per 1 degrees C; 95% CI 18.3%-51.6%) positively. Additionally, minimum (18.1-24.2 degrees C) (29.5% per 1 degrees C; 20.9%-38.1%) and maximum temperature (28.0-34.5 degrees C) (28.9%; 10.3%-47.5%) were also associated with increased dengue transmission. The OR of DF incidence increased steeply from 22 degrees C to 29 degrees C, suggesting an inflexion of DF risk between these lower and upper limits of DF risk. This discovery is helpful for government decision-makers focused on preventing and controlling dengue in areas with temperatures within this range.",A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Dengue Risk with Temperature Change,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+784863,"Climate change is projected to alter the growing conditions of rice crop in different regions of India. Crop growth simulation model (DSSATv4.6) was calibrated and evaluated with four rice cultivars: PR 118 in Amritsar, Ludhiana; HKR 126 in Hisar and Ambala; Pant 4 in Kanpur and Sugandha-1126 in Modipuram on different sowing dates. The average yield of the selected optimum dates was 6391, 6531, 7751, 7561, 4347 and 4131 kg/ha for Amritsar, Ludhiana, Hisar, Ambala, Modipuram and Kanpur respectively. Both temperature and CO2 have increased. The combined effect of temperature and CO2 indicates decreased yield rate in the future decades. The present study shows that rice yield will decrease in the future and this may be due to increase in temperature. According to projection results, for all the locations average yield is higher in the decade 2010, except Amritsar in the decade 2030 and Ludhiana in the decade 2050. The average yield at Hisar, Ambala, Modipuram and Kanpur in 2010 was 7744, 7654, 4347 and 4021 kg/ha respectively. Amritsar and Ludhiana showed maximum average yield of 6880 and 6877 kg/ha respectively, in the decade 2030. Such yield reductions in rice crops due to climate change are mediated through reduction in crop duration, grain number and grain filling duration. These projections nevertheless provide a direction of likely change in crop productivity in future climate change scenarios.",Impact of projected climate change on rice (Oryza sativa L.) yield using CERES-rice model in different agroclimatic zones of India,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1518337,"We determine the contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to future relative sea-level change for the North American coastline between Newfoundland and Texas. We infer GIA model parameters using recently compiled and quality-assessed databases of past sea-level changes, including new databases for the United States Gulf Coast and Atlantic Canada. At 13 cities along this coastline, we estimate the GIA contribution to range from a few centimeters (e.g., 3 [-1 to 9] cm Miami) to a few decimeters (e.g., 18 [12-22] cm, Halifax) for the period 2085-2100 relative to 2006-2015 (1-sigma ranges given). We provide estimates of uncertainty in the GIA component using two different methods; the more conservative approach produces total ranges (1-sigma confidence) that vary from 3 to 16cm for the cities considered. Contributions from ocean steric and dynamic changes as well as those from changes in land ice are also estimated to provide context for the GIA projections. When summing the contributions from all three processes at the 13 cities considered along this coastline, using median or best-estimate values, the GIA signal comprises 5-38% of the total depending on the adopted climate forcing and location. The contributions from ocean dynamic/steric changes and ice mass loss are similar in amplitude but with spatial variation that approximately cancels, resulting in GIA dominating the net spatial variability north of 35 degrees N.",The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to projections of sea-level change along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+775373,"Drylands represent the planet's largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts). soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria. comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness-changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+ 4 degrees C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (> 30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.",Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+432730,"The effects of climate change are difficult to predict for many marine species because little is known of their response to climate variations in the past. However, long-term chronologies of growth, a variable that integrates multiple physical and biological factors, are now available for several marine taxa. These allow us to search for climate-driven synchrony in growth across multiple taxa and ecosystems, identifying the key processes driving biological responses at very large spatial scales. We hypothesized that in northwest (NW) Australia, a region that is predicted to be strongly influenced by climate change, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon would be an important factor influencing the growth patterns of organisms in both marine and terrestrial environments. To test this idea, we analyzed existing growth chronologies of the marine fish Lutjanus argentimaculatus, the coral Porites spp. and the tree Callitris columellaris and developed a new chronology for another marine fish, Lethrinus nebulosus. Principal components analysis and linear model selection showed evidence of ENSO-driven synchrony in growth among all four taxa at interannual time scales, the first such result for the Southern Hemisphere. Rainfall, sea surface temperatures, and sea surface salinities, which are linked to the ENSO system, influenced the annual growth of fishes, trees, and corals. All four taxa had negative relationships with the Nino-4 index (a measure of ENSO status), with positive growth patterns occurring during strong La Nina years. This finding implies that future changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are likely to have major consequences for both marine and terrestrial taxa. Strong similarities in the growth patterns of fish and trees offer the possibility of using tree-ring chronologies, which span longer time periods than those of fish, to aid understanding of both historical and future responses of fish populations to climate variation.",Evidence for climate-driven synchrony of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in northwest Australia,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+625366,"In recent years there has been a focus on the impact of changing climate on rainfall and storm patterns both globally and in Australia with research directed to examine how the global hydrological cycle will respond to climate change. This study investigates the effect of different rainfall patterns on erosion and sediment transport rates in a small study catchment in the Northern Territory, Australia. There have been several studies of the effect of climate change on rainfall patterns in the study area with projections indicating an increase in storm activity. Therefore it is important that the impact of this variability be assessed in terms of catchment hydrology, geomorphology and sediment transport and erosion rates. In this study a numerical model of erosion and deposition (CAESAR) is used to assess several different rainfall scenarios over a 1000 year modelled period. The results show that at the end of a 1000 year modelled period the simulated catchments are not geomorphologically or hydrologically different from one another. The model results reveal that increased rainfall amount and intensity increases sediment transport rates but predicted annual sediment output from the models was variable and non-linear but within the range of measured field data for the catchment and region. The study provides a sensitivity analysis of both initial soil particle size distribution used in the erosion model and rainfall on long-term erosion rates and catchment sediment transport. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",A catchment scale assessment of increased rainfall and storm intensity on erosion and sediment transport for Northern Australia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+144245,"Background: Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of similar to 20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology. Methodology/Principal Findings: By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from remotely sensed imagery, we report significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation phenology across the Himalayas between 1982 and 2006. The average annual mean temperature during the 25 year period has increased by 1.5 degrees C with an average increase of 0.06 degrees C yr(-1). The average annual precipitation has increased by 163 mm or 6.52 mmyr(-1). Since changes in temperature and precipitation are immediately manifested as changes in phenology of local ecosystems, we examined phenological changes in all major ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS) seems to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1) and the length of growing season (LOS) appears to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1), but there has been no change in the end of the growing season (EOS). There is considerable spatial and seasonal variation in changes in climate and phenological parameters. Conclusions/Significance: This is the first time that large scale climatic and phenological changes at the landscape level have been documented for the Himalayas. The rate of warming in the Himalayas is greater than the global average, confirming that the Himalayas are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change.",Widespread Climate Change in the Himalayas and Associated Changes in Local Ecosystems,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+695687,"The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (lambda = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (lambda = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.",Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+141759,"Wetlands are important and restricted habitats for dependent biota and play vital roles in landscape function, hydrology and carbon sequestration. They are also likely to be one of the most sensitive components of the terrestrial biosphere to global climate change. An understanding of relationships between wetland persistence and climate is imperative for predicting, mitigating and adapting to the impacts of future climate change on wetland extent and function. We investigated whether mire wetlands had contracted, expanded or remained stable during 1960-2000. We chose a study area encompassing a regional climatic gradient in southeastern Australia, specifically to avoid confounding effects of water extraction on wetland hydrology and extent. We first characterized trends in climate by examining data from local weather stations, which showed a slight increase in precipitation and marked decline in pan evaporation over the relevant period. Remote sensing of vegetation boundaries showed a marked lateral expansion of mires during 1961-1998, and a corresponding contraction of woodland. The spatial patterns in vegetation change were consistent with the regional climatic gradient and showed a weaker co-relationship to fire history. Resource exploitation, wildland fires and autogenic mire development failed to explain the observed expansion of mire vegetation in the absence of climate change. We therefore conclude that the extent of mire wetlands is likely to be sensitive to variation in climatic moisture over decadal time scales. Late 20th-century trends in climatic moisture may be related primarily to reduced irradiance and/or reduced wind speeds. In the 21st century, however, net climatic moisture in this region is projected to decline. As mires are apparently sensitive to hydrological change, we anticipate lateral contraction of mire boundaries in coming decades as projected climatic drying eventuates. This raises concerns about the future hydrological functions, carbon storage capacity and unique biodiversity of these important ecosystems.",Decadal change in wetland-woodland boundaries during the late 20th century reflects climatic trends,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+403494,0,Extreme responses to climate change in Antarctic lakes,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+553048,"An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4-6 degrees Cover the subtropics and 3-5 degrees Cover the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional dowscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of African climate change and climate change adaptation in Africa.",Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+518795,"Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from similar to 250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.",2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1408327,"This paper describes a study that investigates the local and remote effects of Indochina deforestation on the east Asian summer monsoon. During the summer months, the peninsula is subject to strong monsoonal flow whose downstream rainfall is of vital importance for China, where a significant fraction of the world's population lives. It is, therefore, extremely important to investigate how the landscape change affects this monsoonal flow, and whether this effect is strong enough to cause notable changes in the regional rainfall. For this reason, a modeling experiment with the International Pacific Research Center regional climate model was carried out. Ensemble simulations with the current vegetation cover in the peninsula and its reforested scenario were performed for the period from 20 April to 31 August 1998. The results of the experiment indicate that deforestation in the peninsula has not only local, but also far-reaching effects on the east Asian summer monsoon. Locally, the effect could be described as increases in wind speed and temperature, and as a decrease in water vapor mixing ratio from the surface up to about 850 mb. Furthermore, the deforestation tends to enhance the rising motions, and, hence, tends to reduce surface pressure and geopotential height up to about 850 mb over the deforested area. The local landscape changes tend to increase rainfall on the downwind side and decrease it on the upwind side. Far-reaching effects in summer include a weakening of the monsoonal flow over east China, near the Tibetan Plateau, and a strengthening over the neighboring seas to the east. These changes yield sandwich-type drier and wetter bands that are elongated along the main flow path of the east Asian summer monsoon. A comparison of the modeled changes with the observed rainfall trends suggests that the deforestation in the Indochina Peninsula could be one of the major factors causing changes in the climate of the region.",Impact of Indochina deforestation on the east Asian summer monsoon,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+429846,"The alpine ecosystem of the Western Nyaingentanglha region, located in the Central Tibetan Plateau, has experienced a lot of changes in the context of climatic change. The long data record of remote sensing data allowed us to evaluate spatio-temporal change in this remote area. The ecosystem changes of the Western Nyaingentanglha region were detected by using Landast MSS/TM/ETM +, Hexagon KH-9, Glas/ICESat, SRTM3 DEM remote sensing data and GIS techniques. The area of glacier lakes was delineated by visual interpretation, while for the inland lake by image classification. The change of glacier thickness was obtained by Glas/ICESat data of 2004 and 2008. Results show high variation in extent of glaciers and lakes with increased temperature and precipitation in the past 40 years. These variations include glacial retreat, increased water level of inland lakes and increased number of glacier lakes to higher altitudes. Glaciers lost 22% of its coverage from 1977 to 2010, and the annual shrinkage rate accelerated in the last decade compared with the previous time period of 1977-2001. In average, the thickness of the monitored glaciers reduced by 4.48 m from 2004 to 2008 with an annual rate of 1.12 m. From 1972 to 2009, the number of new formed glacier lakes increased by 150 and the area of glacier lakes increased by 173% (4.53 km(2)). At the same time, the surface area of the largest salt lake in Tibet expanded by 4.13% (80.18 km(2)). These variations appear to be associated with an increase in mean annual temperature of 0.05 degrees C per year, and an increase in annual precipitation of 1.83 mm per year in the last four decades. By analyzing the relationship between the decreased glacier area and the increased number and extent of lakes in the vertical zones over the past 40 years, there is a high correlation of 0.81. These results indicate that the climate change has great impacts on glaciers and glacier lakes on the central Tibetan Plateau. Further detailed investigations are required to understand the contribution of melting water and precipitation to the water cycle and the complicated hydrological relationship between the characteristics of glaciers and glacier lakes and climate warming in this alpine region. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Glacier and glacial lake changes and their relationship in the context of climate change, Central Tibetan Plateau 1972-2010",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+435500,"P> High alpine plants endure a cold climate with short growing seasons entailing severe consequences of an improper timing of development. Hence, their flowering phenology is expected to be rigorously controlled by climatic factors. We studied ten alpine plant species from habitats with early and late melting snow cover for 2 years and compared the synchronizing effect of temperature sums (TS), time of snowmelt (SM) and photoperiod (PH) on their flowering phenology. Intraseasonal and habitat-specific variation in the impact of these factors was analysed by comparing predictions of time-to-event models using linear mixed-effects models. Temperature was the overwhelming trigger of flowering phenology for all species. Its synchronizing effect was strongest at or shortly after flowering indicating the particular importance of phenological control of pollination. To some extent, this pattern masks the common trend of decreasing phenological responses to climatic changes from the beginning to the end of the growing season for lowland species. No carry-over effects were detected. As expected, the impact of photoperiod was weaker for snowbed species than for species inhabiting sites with early melting snow cover, while for temperature the reverse pattern was observed. Our findings provide strong evidence that alpine plants will respond quickly and directly to increasing temperature without considerable compensation due to photoperiodic control of phenology.",Intraseasonal climate and habitat-specific variability controls the flowering phenology of high alpine plant species,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+141332,"It is essential to examine the sensitivity of hydrologic responses to climate and landuse change across different physiographic regions in order to formulate sound water management policies for local response to projected global change. This study used the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model to examine the potential impacts of climate and landuse changes on the monthly streamflow of the Trent River basin on the lower coastal plain of eastern North Carolina. The model was first calibrated and then validated using measured, historic, long-term daily streamflow. The model performed satisfactorily for simulating monthly streamflow, as indicated by an overall Nash-Sutcliffe simulation efficiency greater than 0.85. We examined the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in air temperature and precipitation. The simulations suggested that streamflow of individual years could change from -93% to 238%, depending on the two global circulation model (GCM) scenarios used (i.e., HadCMSul2 and CGC1). Streamflow of the Trent River will decrease with an increase in air temperature, and increase (or decrease) with an increase (or decrease) in precipitation. Streamflow was more sensitive to prescribed changes in precipitation than to air temperature for the study area, given its high and stable evapotranspiration rates in the humid climatic environment. Seven hypothetical landuse change scenarios representing forest conversion to crop lands and urban areas indicated that water yield could increase by 14% to 20%. The likely impacts of landuse changes may not be as high as those caused by predicted changes in climate, but moderate urbanization and extreme hydrologic events caused by climate change could pose significant water quantity and quality problems in the Trent River basin.",STREAMFLOW RESPONSE TO CLIMATE AND LANDUSE CHANGES IN A COASTAL WATERSHED IN NORTH CAROLINA,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+302626,"Svalbard climate is undergoing amplified change with respect to the global mean. Changing climate conditions directly affect the evolution of the seasonal snowpack, through its impact on accumulation, melt, and moisture exchange. We analyze long-term trends and spatial patterns of seasonal snow conditions in Svalbard between 1961 and 2012. Downscaled regional climate model output is used to drive a snow modeling system (SnowModel), with coupled modules simulating the surface energy balance and snowpack evolution. The precipitation forcing is calibrated and validated against snow depth data on a set of glaciers around Svalbard. Climate trends reveal seasonally inhomogeneous warming and a weakly positive precipitation trend, with strongest changes in the north. In response to autumn warming the date of snow onset increased (2days decade(-1)), whereas in spring/summer opposing effects cause a nonsignificant trend in the snow disappearance date. Maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) in winter/spring shows a modest increase (+0.01 meters water equivalent (mwe)decade(-1)), while the end-of-summer minimum snow area fraction declined strongly (from 48% to 36%). The equilibrium line altitude is highest in relatively dry inland regions, and time series show a clear positive trend (25mdecade(-1)) as a result of summer warming. Finally, rain-on-snow in the core winter season, affecting ground ice formation and limiting access of grazing animals to food supplies, peaks during specific years (1994, 1996, 2000, and 2012) and is found to be concentrated in the lower lying coastal regions in southwestern Svalbard.",Multidecadal climate and seasonal snow conditions in Svalbard,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1345924,"The scattering and absorption of solar radiation by atmospheric aerosols is a key element of the Earth's radiative energy balance and climate. The optical properties of aerosol particles are, however, highly variable and not well characterized, especially near newly emerging mega-cities. In this study, aerosol optical properties were measured at a rural site approximately 60 km northwest of the mega-city Guangzhou in southeast China. The measurements were part of the PRIDE-PRD2006 intensive campaign, covering the period of 1-30 July 2006. Scattering and absorption coefficients of dry aerosol particles with diameters up to 10 mu m (PM10) were determined with a three-wavelength integrating nephelometer and with a photoacoustic spectrometer, respectively. Averaged over the measurement campaign (arithmetic mean +/- standard deviation), the total scattering coefficients were 200 +/- 133 Mm(-1) (450 nm), 151 +/- 103 Mm(-1) (550 nm) and 104 +/- 72 Mm(-1) (700 nm) and the absorption coefficient was 34.3 +/- 26.5 Mm-1 (532 nm). The average Angstrom exponent was 1.46 +/- 0.21 (450 nm/700 nm) and the average single scattering albedo was 0.82 +/- 0.07 (532 nm) with minimum values as low as 0.5. The low single scattering albedo values indicate a high abundance, as well as strong sources, of light absorbing carbon (LAC). The ratio of LAC to CO concentration was highly variable throughout the campaign. indicating a complex mix of different combustion sources. The scattering and absorption coefficients, as well as the Angstrom exponent and single scattering albedo, exhibited pronounced diurnal cycles, which can be attributed to boundary layer mixing effects and enhanced nighttime emissions of LAC (diesel soot from regulated truck traffic). The daytime average mid-visible sin-le scattering albedo of 0.87 appears to be more suitable for climate modeling purposes than the 24-h average of 0.82, as the latter value is strongly influenced by fresh emissions into a shallow nocturnal boundary layer. In spite of high photochemical activity during daytime. we found no evidence for strong local production of secondary aerosol mass. The average mass scattering efficiencies with respect to PM10 and PM1 concentrations derived from particle size distribution measurements were 2.8 m(2) g(-1) and 4.1 m(-2) g(-1), respectively. The Angstrom exponent exhibited a wavelength dependence (curvature) that was related to the ratio of fine and coarse particle mass (PM1/PM10) as well as the surface mode diameter of the fine particle fraction. The results demonstrate consistency between in situ measurements and a remote sensing formalism with regard to the fine particle fraction and volume mode diameter, but there are also systematic deviations for the larger mode diameters. Thus we suggest that more data sets from in situ measurements of aerosol optical parameters and particle size distributions should be used to evaluate formalisms applied in aerosol remote sensing. Moreover, we observed a negative correlation between single scattering albedo and backscatter fraction, and we found that it affects the impact that these parameters have on aerosol radiative forcing efficiency and should he considered in model studies of the PRD and similarly polluted mega-city regions.","Aerosol optical properties in a rural environment near the mega-city Guangzhou, China: implications for regional air pollution, radiative forcing and remote sensing",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1311724,"Global seasonal cycles of the wind and wind stress fields estimated from the 8-yr record (September 1999-August 2007) of wind measurements by the NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) are presented. While this atlas, referred to here as the Scatterometer Climatology of Ocean Winds (SCOW), consists of 12 variables, the focus here is on the wind stress and wind stress derivative (curl and divergence) fields. SCOW seasonal cycles are compared with seasonal cycles estimated from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis wind fields. These comparisons show that the SCOW atlas is able to capture small-scale features that are dynamically important to both the ocean and the atmosphere but are not resolved in other observationally based wind atlases or in NCEP-NCAR reanalysis fields. This is particularly true of the wind stress derivative fields in which topographic, SST gradient, and ocean current influences on surface winds are plainly visible. Discussions of five example regions are presented to highlight these seasonally recurring small-scale features. It is expected that the SCOW atlas will prove valuable to researchers conducting hydrographic and modeling studies.",A Global Climatology of Surface Wind and Wind Stress Fields from Eight Years of QuikSCAT Scatterometer Data,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+26193,"Climate change can cause considerable changes in water resources and assessing the potential impacts can provide important information for regional sustainable development. The objectives were to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change during 2010-2039 on water resources (runoff, soil water content, and evapotranspiration) in the Heihe watershed on the Loess Plateau of China and to further explore adaptive measures to cope with the changes. Projections of four climate models (CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, and HadCM3) under three emission scenarios (A2, B2, and GGa) were used to estimate future changes in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature based on Change Factor method. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the hydrologic responses to climate changes. The CA-Markov model was used to develop land use scenarios. Compared with the present climate, the climate models predicted a -2.3% to 7.8% change in annual precipitation, 0.7 to 2.2A degrees C rises in maximum temperature, and 1.2 to 2.8A degrees C rises in minimum temperature. Without consideration of land use change, SWAT predicted a -19.8% to 37.0% change for runoff, -5.5% to 17.2% change for soil water content, and 0.1% to 5.9% increase for evapotranspiration during 2010-2039 under all climate scenarios. Though the change of hydrometeorolocial variables are complex, they would possibly increase with great probability, and the hydrological regime would be influenced such as a decrease in runoff in winter months. With land use changes, the projected land use of 2015 would increase soil water content by 4.0% and surface runoff by 5.7% while slightly decrease evapotranspiration by 0.6% compared with the 2000 land use. This result showed that adjustment of land use patterns was capable of regulating water resources and could be used to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.",Assessing and regulating the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Heihe watershed on the Loess Plateau of China,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1497869,"Background: Consistent evidence has shown excess mortality associated with cold temperature, but some important details of the cold-mortality association (e.g. slope and threshold) have not been adequately investigated and few studies focused on the cold effect in high-altitude areas of developing countries. We attempted to quantify the cold effect on mortality, identify the details, and evaluate effect modification in the distinct subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, a high plateau region in southwest China. Methods: From daily mortality and meteorological data during 2009-2014, we used a quasi-Poisson model combined with a ""natural cubic spline-natural cubic spline"" distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the temperature-mortality relationship and then a simpler ""hockey-stick"" model to investigate the cold effect and details. Results: Cold temperature was associated with increased mortality, and the relative risk of cold effect (1st relative to 10th temperature percentile) on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality for lag 0-21 days was 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-1.66), 1.61 (1.28-2.02), and 1.13 (0.78-1.64), respectively. A 1 degrees C decrease below a cold threshold of 9.1 degrees C (8th percentile) for lags 0-21 was associated with a 7.35% (3.75-11.09%) increase in non-accidental mortality. The cold-mortality association was not significantly affected by cause-specific mortality, gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, occupation, or previous history of hypertension. Conclusions: There is an adverse impact of cold on mortality in Yuxi, China, and a temperature of 9.1 degrees C is an important cut-off for cold-related mortality for residents. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.","Association of cold temperature and mortality and effect modification in the subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+196727,"To project the future development of the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in permafrost environments, the spatial and vertical distribution of key soil properties and their landscape controls needs to be understood. This article reports findings from the Arctic Lena River Delta where we sampled 50 soil pedons. These were classified according to the U.S.D.A. Soil Taxonomy and fall mostly into the Gelisol soil order used for permafrost-affected soils. Soil profiles have been sampled for the active layer (mean depth 58 +/- 10 cm) and the upper permafrost to one meter depth. We analyze SOC stocks and key soil properties, i.e. C%, N%, C/N, bulk density, visible ice and water content. These are compared for different landscape groupings of pedons according to geomorphology, soil and land cover and for different vertical depth increments. High vertical resolution plots are used to understand soil development. These show that SOC storage can be highly variable with depth. We recommend the treatment of permafrost-affected soils according to subdivisions into: the surface organic layer, mineral subsoil in the active layer, organic enriched cryoturbated or buried horizons and the mineral subsoil in the permafrost. The major geomorphological units of a subregion of the Lena River Delta were mapped with a land form classification using a data-fusion approach of optical satellite imagery and digital elevation data to upscale SOC storage. Landscape mean SOC storage is estimated to 19.2 +/- 2.0 kg C m(-2). Our results show that the geomorphological setting explains more soil variability than soil taxonomy classes or vegetation cover. The soils from the oldest, Pleistocene aged, unit of the delta store the highest amount of SOC per m(2) followed by the Holocene river terrace. The Pleistocene terrace affected by thermal-degradation, the recent floodplain and bare alluvial sediments store considerably less SOC in descending order. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Landscape controls and vertical variability of soil organic carbon storage in permafrost-affected soils of the Lena River Delta,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+137308,"The impact of climate warming on rice production has attracted considerable attention. In this study, we (1) analyzed trends in maximum and minimum temperatures and low temperature events from 1980 to 2010 for early season, (2) evaluated relationships between rice-yield attributes and maximum or minimum temperature by using data from field experiments conducted in early seasons of 1991-2004, and (3) compared grain yield among different rice establishment methods by using data from field experiments done in early seasons of two contrasting years (2009 and 2010) with respect to low temperature events in Changde, Hunan Province, China. The results showed that maximum and minimum temperatures in early season increased by 2.2 degrees C and 2.1 degrees C, respectively, during the period 1980-2010 and there was a significant relationship between early-rice grain yield and maximum temperature. Grain yield increased by 7% for each 1 degrees C increase in growing-season maximum temperature. The increase in grain yield with maximum temperature was driven from the increased daily yield rather than growth duration. However, stabilizing growth duration was critical to overcome the potential negative impact of future climate warming on early-rice production. On the other hand, the climate warming did not lead to significant decreases in low temperature events. In the year with low temperature events, direct seeding produced less grain yield than transplanting and seedling throwing by 32% and 23%, respectively. Our study suggests that direct seeding is a high risk establishment method for early-rice production and seedling throwing may be a more satisfactory method of establishing early-rice under current climate change scenarios. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Impact of temperature changes on early-rice productivity in a subtropical environment of China,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2333760,"In order to assess the impact of natural and anthropogenic stresses on forest ecosystems, it is necessary to interpolate air temperature and tropospheric ozone (03) exposure values at high spatial resolution over complex terrain. The proposed interpolation approach was selected because of its ability to (1) account for the effect of elevation on temperature and their effects on tropospheric ozone, (2) use auxiliary data at higher spatial resolution than the variables of interest to improve the precision and accuracy of the prediction surfaces, (3) handle large amounts of data, and (4) provide not only a prediction at nonsampled locations but also a prediction standard deviation. The approach used auxiliary digital elevation model (DEM) data at 1 km resolution to improve the precision and resolution of the predictions for temperature and O-3 exposure in the western United States. Initially, the study area was stratified into 03 regions based on seasonality and variability of monthly SUM06 values at 111 Stations for the period 1990-1992 using rotated principal component analysis. Monthly mean daily maximum air temperatures were spatially interpolated using loess nonparametric regression and kriging of the loess residuals and interpolated to 2 km grid points of a DEM and to the ambient air quality monitoring points, Monthly O-3 exposures were spatially interpolated using loess fits to relate O-3 levels to elevation, predicted temperature, and the geographic coordinates and interpolated to 2 km grid points of d DEM. The elevation-based spatial interpolation procedure produced accurate and precise temperature and O-3 exposure surfaces which had desirable statistical properties and were logically consistent with local topographical features and atmospheric conditions known to influence O-3 formation and transport. The leave-one-out cross-validation mean absolute error was 0.93degreesC for the monthly mean daily maximum temperature and 1.93 ppm-h for the monthly SUM06 index for June 1990 for the western United States, comparable to published results for other regions at smaller spatial scales with less complex terrain.",Interpolation of temperature and non-urban ozone exposure at high spatial resolution over the western United States,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+633934,"Beach monitoring data are presented and show an average beach erosion trend of 0.5 m yr -1 in eight Caribbean islands over the period 1985-2000, with elevated rates in those islands impacted by a higher number of hurricanes. The data are based on 5 to 15 years of continuous monitoring, conducted at three-month intervals, at 113 beaches (200 profile sites) on eight islands, using standard methodology. The causes of the erosion are discussed and include anthropogenic factors, climate variability and projected climate change. Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections for the Caribbean region, and the likely increase of anthropogenic stresses such as coastal development, it is likely that the beach erosion trend will continue and increase. Nonexclusive approaches to help beaches adapt to climate change include structural, planning or ecological measures. Two case studies illustrating climate change adaptation measures are discussed, one focuses on coastal planning measures in Anguilla and Nevis, and the second focuses on ecological measures, specifically the rehabilitation of a coastal forest in Puerto Rico. These case studies have not reached a stage where their effectiveness can be evaluated, however preliminary outcomes show that community-based climate change adaptation measures require careful planning such that the entire community is involved in a participatory manner and sufficient time is allocated for awareness-raising, information-sharing and discussion.",Caribbean beach changes and climate change adaptation,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1505001,"Mosquito-based surveillance is a practical way to estimate the risk of transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) to people. Variations in temperature and precipitation play a role in driving mosquito infection rates and transmission of WNV, motivating efforts to predict infection rates based on prior weather conditions. Weather conditions and sequential patterns of meteorological events can have particularly important, but regionally distinctive, consequences for WNV transmission, with high temperatures and low precipitation often increasing WNV mosquito infection. Predictive models that incorporate weather can thus be used to provide early indications of the risk of WNV infection. The purpose of this study was first, to assess the ability of a previously published model of WNV mosquito infection to predict infection for an area within the region for which it was developed, and second, to improve the predictive ability of this model by incorporating new weather factors that may affect mosquito development. The legacy model captured the primary trends in mosquito infection, but it was improved considerably when calibrated with local mosquito infection rates. The use of interaction terms between precipitation and temperature improved model performance. Specifically, temperature had a stronger influence than rainfall, so that lower than average temperature greatly reduced the effect of low rainfall on increased infection rates. When rainfall was lower, high temperature had an even stronger positive impact on infection rates. The final model is practical, stable, and operationally valid for predicting West Nile virus infection rates in future weeks when calibrated with local data.",Predicting West Nile Virus Infection Risk From the Synergistic Effects of Rainfall and Temperature,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+382374,"The debate over whether urbanization and related socioeconomic developments affect large-scale surface climate trends is stalemated with incommensurable arguments. Each side can appeal to supporting evidence based on statistical models that do not overlap, yielding inferences that merely conflict but do not refute one another. I argue that such debates are only be resolved in an encompassing framework, in which both types of results can be demonstrated as restricted forms of the same statistical model, and the restrictions can be tested. The issues under debate make such data sets challenging to construct, but I give two illustrative examples. First, insignificant differences in warming trends in urban temperature data during windy and calm conditions are shown in a restricted model whose general form shows temperature data to be strongly affected by local population growth. Second, an apparent equivalence between trends in a data set stratified by a static measure of urbanization is shown to be a restricted finding in a model whose general form indicates significant influence of local socioeconomic development on temperatures.",Encompassing tests of socioeconomic signals in surface climate data,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+681130,"Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and mid-latitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidencefocusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-representedin the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described. (C) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. WIREs Clim Change 2013, 4:121150. doi: 10.1002/wcc.209 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.",Detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change impacts,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+622510,"The northern treeline is generally limited by available warmth. However, in recent years, more and more studies have identified drought stress as an additional limiting factor for tree growth in northern boreal forests and at treelines. Three growth responses to warming have been identified: increase in growth, decrease in growth, and nonsignificant correlation of tree growth with climate. Here we investigate the effect of drought stress on radial growth of white spruce at northern treelines along a longitudinal gradient spanning the entire Brooks Range in Alaska. We systematically sampled 687 white spruce at seven treeline sites. Where possible, we sampled three site types at a given site: high-density forest, low-density forest, and floodplain forest. We investigated the relationship of site and site type to tree growth responses. In the western part of our study area, we found very high numbers of trees responding with increase in growth to recent warming; while in the eastern part, trees responding with decrease in growth to recent warming are predominant. Within a given site, more trees reacting positively to warming grow on site types characterized by low tree density. These patterns coincide with precipitation decreases from west to east and local water availability gradients, therefore pointing to drought stress as the controlling factor for the distribution of trees responding with increase or decrease in growth to recent warming. Compared to 20th century climate, we project a 25-50% basal area (BA) increase in the western region for the 21st century due to climate warming as projected by five general circulation models, 4-11% in the central region and decreases (+1 to -11%) in the eastern region. The overall net change in projected 21st century BA increase at each site seems to be controlled by the relative proportion of responder groups. If these are similar, differences in the magnitude of increase versus decrease in growth control BA projections for that site. This study highlights the importance of regional-scale investigations of biosphere-climate interactions, since our results indicate a substantial gain in aboveground biomass as a result of future warming only in the western regions; while in the eastern regions, climate warming will decrease overall wood production and therefore carbon uptake potential. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Longitudinal variation of radial growth at Alaska's northern treeline - recent changes and possible scenarios for the 21st century,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+589458,"Background: Recent studies have shown an association between weather and climatic factors with mortality, cardiovascular and infectious diseases. We used historical data to investigate the impact of seasonal temperature and precipitation on total mortality in Uppsala, Sweden, during the first two stages of the demographic transition, 1749-1859. Design: We retrieved mortality and population numbers of the Uppsala Domkyrka parish from digitised parish records and obtained monthly temperature and precipitation measures recorded in Uppsala during that time. Statistical models were established for year-to-year variability in deaths by annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation, adjusting for longer time trends. In a second step, a model was established for three different periods to study changes in the association of climate variability and mortality over time. Relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Results: Precipitation during spring and autumn was significantly associated with annual mortality (spring RR 0.982, CI 0.965-1.000; autumn RR 1.018, CI 1.004-1.032, respectively, per centimetre increase of precipitation). Higher springtime temperature decreased annual mortality, while higher summer temperature increased the death toll; however, both were only borderline significant (p = 0.07). The significant effect of springtime precipitation for mortality was present only in the first two periods (1749-1785 and 1786-1824). On the contrary, the overall effect of autumn precipitation was mainly due to its relevance during the last period, 1825-1859 (RR 1.024, CI 0.997-1.052). At that time, higher winter precipitation was found to decrease mortality. Conclusions: In urban Uppsala, during the 18th and 19th century, precipitation appeared to be a stronger predictor for mortality than temperature. Higher spring precipitation decreased and higher autumn precipitation increased the number of deaths. However, this association differed before and during the early stages of industrialisation. Further research shall take age-specific differences into account, as well as changes in socio-economic conditions during that time.",The influence of seasonal climate variability on mortality in pre-industrial Sweden,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1288576,"Tropical cyclones (TCs) and sea level rise (SLR) cause major problems including beach erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and damage to infrastructure in coastal areas. The magnitude and extent of damage is predicted to increase as a consequence of future climate change and local factors. Upward reef growth has attracted attention for its role as a natural breakwater, reducing the risks of natural disasters to coastal communities. However, projections of change in the risk to coastal reefs under conditions of intensified TCs and SLR are poorly quantified. In this study we projected the wave height and water level on Melekeok reef in the Palau Islands by 2100, based on wave simulations under intensified TCs (significant wave height at the outer ocean: SWHo = 8.7-11.0 m; significant wave period at the outer ocean: SWPo = 13-15 s) and SLR (0.24-0.98 m). To understand effects of upward reef growth on the reduction of the wave height and water level, the simulation was conducted for two reef condition scenarios: a degraded reef and a healthy reef. Moreover, analyses of reef growth based on a drilled core provided an assessment of the coral community and rate of reef production necessary to reduce the risk from TCs and SLR on the coastal areas. According to our calculations under intensified TCs and SLR by 2100, significant wave heights at the reef flat (SWHr) will increase from 1.05-1.24m at present to 2.14m if reefs are degraded. Similarly, by 2100 the water level at the shoreline (WLs) will increase from 0.86-2.10m at present to 1.19-3.45m if reefs are degraded. These predicted changes will probably cause beach erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and damage to infrastructure, because the coastal village is located at similar to 3m above the present mean sea level. These findings imply that even if the SWHr is decreased by only 0.1m by upward reef growth, it will probably reduce the risks of costal damages. Our results showed that a healthy reef will reduce a maximum of 0.44m of the SWHr. According to analysis of drilled core, corymbose Acropora corals will be key to reducing the risks, and 2.6-5.8 kg CaCO3 m(-2) yr(-1), equivalent to > 8% of coral cover, will be required to keep a healthy reef by 2100. This study highlights that the maintaining reef growth (as a function of coral cover) in the future is effective in reducing the risk of coastal damage arising from wave action. Although the present study focuses on Melekeok fringing reef, many coral reefs are in the same situation under conditions of intensified TCs and SLR, and therefore the results of this study are applicable to other reefs. These researches are critical in guiding policy development directed at disaster prevention for small island nations and for developing and developed countries.",Projecting of wave height and water level on reef-lined coasts due to intensified tropical cyclones and sea level rise in Palau to 2100,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1157722,"The construction industry is responsible for 40-45% of primary energy consumption in Europe. Therefore, it is essential to find new materials with a lower environmental impact to achieve sustainable buildings. The objective of this study was to carry out the life cycle analysis (LCA) to evaluate the environmental impacts of baked clay bricks incorporating organic waste. The scope of this comparative study of LCA covers cradle to gate and involves the extraction of clay and organic waste from the brick, transport, crushing, modelling, drying and cooking. Local sustainability within a circular economy strategy is used as a laboratory test. The energy used during the cooking process of the bricks modified with organic waste, the gas emission concentrate and the emission factors are quantified experimentally in the laboratory. Potential environmental impacts are analysed and compared using the ReCiPe midpoint LCA method using SimaPro 8.0.5.13. These results achieved from this method are compared with those obtained with a second methodImpact 2002+ v2.12. The results of LCA show that the incorporation of organic waste in bricks is favourable from an environmental point of view and is a promising alternative approach in terms of environmental impacts, as it leads to a decrease of 15-20% in all the impact categories studied. Therefore, the suitability of the use of organic additives in clay bricks was confirmed, as this addition was shown to improve their efficiency and sustainability, thus reducing the environmental impact.",Comparative Study on the Environmental Impact of Traditional Clay Bricks Mixed with Organic Waste Using Life Cycle Analysis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3909715,"The effects of austenization temperature on the microstructures and mechanical properties of a newly designed ultra-high strength low alloy martensitic steel were systematically studied. The microstructures of the martensitic steels which were quenched from different temperatures between 860 and 980 °C were investigated by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) and discussed. The results showed that the martensite laths were found to coarsen slowly and the carbide precipitates dissolved gradually with increasing austenization temperature. As the austenization temperature increased from 860 to 980 °C, the volume of retained austenite and the numerical ratio of high angle grain boundaries (HAGBs) were observed to increase while the numerical ratio of low angle grain boundaries (LAGBs) decreased. Rockwell C hardness (HRC), tensile strength and yield strength increased at first and then decreased, while impact toughness was greatly improved with increasing austenization temperature. The fracture mechanism was brittle fracture when austenitized at low temperatures, while it was ductile fracture when austenitized at high temperatures. The mechanical properties were significantly influenced by the formation of retained austenite, the dissolution of carbides, and the numerical ratio of HAGBs and LAGBs. © Carl Hanser Verlag, München.",Influence of austenization temperature on microstructure and mechanical properties of a new ultra-high strength low alloyed steel,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3303876,"Many temperate bird species are breeding earlier in response to warming temperatures. We examined the effects of climate on breeding phenology and productivity in 19 populations across the range of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Dryobates borealis), an endangered species endemic to pine (Pinus spp.) forests in the southeastern United States. Red-cockaded Woodpeckers nested earlier in warmer springs and delayed nesting in wetter springs. Earlier nesting and larger group sizes resulted in higher productivity. Spring temperatures have warmed over time across the range, but this has not led to range-wide advances in nesting date over time. Coastal and northern populations have exhibited a trend of earlier nesting over time, but the response of inland populations has been variable, including some populations in which nesting has become later over time. Geographic patterns included high and increasing productivity at higher latitudes, and declining productivity in the southwestern portion of the range, suggesting a possible shift in acceptable climate conditions for the species. Earlier nesting over time was associated with increasing productivity at higher latitudes, while elsewhere earlier nesting over time was associated with declining or stable productivity, suggesting that populations differ in their ability to adjust to a changing climate. The Red-cockaded Woodpecker is a habitat specialist heavily reliant on habitat management and has little capacity to shift its range, so its long-term viability will depend on its ability to adjust in place to changing local conditions.",Variable effects of a changing climate on lay dates and productivity across the range of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1485969,"[1]Time-variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission have been available since 2002 to estimate the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. We analyze current progress and uncertainties in GRACE estimates of ice sheet mass balance. We discuss the impacts of errors associated with spherical harmonic truncation, spatial averaging, temporal sampling, and leakage from other time-dependent signals (e.g., glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA)). The largest sources of error for Antarctica are the GIA correction, the omission of l=1 terms, nontidal changes in ocean mass, and measurement errors. For Greenland, the errors come mostly from the uncertainty in the scaling factor. Using Release 5.0 (RL05) GRACE fields for January 2003 through November 2012, we find a mass change of -258 +/- 41Gt/yr for Greenland, with an acceleration of -31 +/- 6Gt/yr(2), and a loss that migrated clockwise around the ice sheet margin to progressively affect the entire periphery. For Antarctica, we report changes of -83 +/- 49 and -147 +/- 80Gt/yr for two GIA models, with an acceleration of -12 +/- 9Gt/yr(2) and a dominance from the southeast pacific sector of West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula.",Time-variable gravity observations of ice sheet mass balance: Precision and limitations of the GRACE satellite data,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+375629,"We examined the variation in association between high temperatures and elderly mortality (age >= 75 years) from year to year in 83 US cities between 1987 and 2000. We used a Poisson regression model and decomposed the mortality risk for high temperatures into: a ""main effect"" due to high temperatures using lagged non-linear function, and an ""added effect"" due to consecutive high temperature days. We pooled yearly effects across both regional and national levels. The high temperature effects (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year. In every city there was at least one year where higher temperatures were associated with lower mortality. Years with relatively high heat-related mortality were often followed by years with relatively low mortality. These year to year changes have important consequences for heat-warning systems and for predictions of heat-related mortality due to climate change.",High temperatures-related elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year: important information for heat-warning systems,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+166211,"New Zealand has a long, continuous record of annual end-of-summer-snowline measurements for a set of Southern Alps 'index glaciers' from 1977 to present. These index glaciers are used to estimate annual mass balance and volume water equivalent changes for the over 3000 glaciers on the Southern Alps. Two methods are employed to monitor ice volume changes. Method I deals with the rapid to normal response time glaciers, which tend to be small to medium in size. It uses mass balance gradients and glacier areas to convert changes in snowlines to changes in ice volume water equivalent. Ice volume changes for the period 1976-2008 are calculated for each index glacier, and then extrapolated to most other glaciers of the Southern Alps, using the New Zealand glacier inventory. Method II deals with 12 protracted response glaciers, which tend to be large in size. These have been slow in reacting to a long-term regional warming trend. Instead they still largely retain the ablation areas of a century ago and are in a state of disequilibrium with the present climate. These valley glaciers have recently sustained substantial ice losses that are not able to be detected using Method I. Mass balance deficits and ablation from the 12 large protracted response glaciers are estimated using a geodetic approach based on topographic and lake changes determined from repeated surveys. Results show that estimated ice volume (in water equivalents) for the Southern Alps has decreased from 54.5 km(3) in 1976 to 46.1 km(3) by 2008. This equates to a rate of -0.3 km(3)a(-1) over the last three decades, but this is considerably less than the rate of ice volume loss estimated for the previous 100 years. More than 3000 small and medium-size glaciers account for just 29% of the overall ice volume loss from the Southern Alps, while 71% of the loss occurs from the 12 large protracted response glaciers. Terminus calving contributes 0.8 km(3) and down-wasting of ice tongues in the ablation zone contributes 5.2 km(3). Some preliminary results show that ice volume changes are related to changes in circulation over the New Zealand region. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Annual ice volume changes 1976-2008 for the New Zealand Southern Alps,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2348990,"Warming-amplified drought stress may decrease productivity and growth in both wet and dry conifer forest ecosystems. However, the seasonal radial-growth responses to climate, drought and related climate atmospheric patterns have not been compared in detail in wet and dry sites. We focus on drought-prone northern Mexico conifer forests and compare growth responses in tree species from wet (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and dry sites (Pinus leiophylla). To characterize the responsiveness to inter- and intra-annual changes in water availability we used dendrochronology and measured tree-ring (TRW), earlywood (EW) and late wood W) widths. We calculated adjusted LW (LWadj) by removing the influence of EW on LW. We identified E- (narrow tracheids within the earlywood) and L-type (wide tracheids within the latewood) intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs) and related their frequencies to seasonal climate and drought. We also related growth to atmospheric patterns related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which drives precipitation patterns in the studied region. Wet-cool conditions during the prior winter and current spring linked to El Nino events enhanced TRW and EW, particularly in P. menziesii, whereas wet summer conditions enhanced LWadj. The formation of E- (P. leiophylla) and L-type (P. menziesii) IADFs was associated with seasonal fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, suggesting different strategies to withstand drought. The sensitive P. menziesii strongly responded to short spring droughts, whereas the tolerant P. leiophylla responded to longer spring droughts. Seasonal wood measures (EW, LWadj) and IADFs are proxies of intra-annual fluctuations in water availability in similar conifer forests.",Seasonal growth responses to climate in wet and dry conifer forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+278668,"Frequent occurrences of extreme rainfall events create severe threat to agricultural production. This is one of the most significant consequences of global warming due to increase in greenhouse gases. A precise understanding of frequency and magnitude of these events and its influence on agricultural productivity can extensively help in policy decisions and planning agricultural as well as water management operations. This study has analyzed observed trends in extreme rainfall indices during monsoon months as well as seasonally at four stations located over different agro-ecological zones of Bihar, namely Samastipur (zone-I), Madhepura (zone-II), Sabour (zone-IIIA) and Patna (zone-IIIB). Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was employed for detection of trends and the slopes of the trend lines were determined using the method of least square linear fitting. Since rice is the important crop in this part of the region, the vulnerability of extreme rainfall indices on productivity also analysed using simple correlations. All the sites show an increasing trend of number of clays with rainfall 10.0 cm or more (very heavy precipitation event) during monsoon season. Sabour shows a significant increasing trend of 0.4 and 0.6 day/decade, respectively during monsoon ancl annually. During September, occurrence of heavy precipitation events over Madhepura recorded a significant positive trend of 0.4 day/decade. Highly significant magnitudes of increasing trends were noticed for Madhepura (46.6 mm/decade) and Sabour (27.5 mm/decade) for occurrence of highest five-day total precipitation during monsoon season. The results show statistically significant positive trends of number of days with rainfall > R2.5 cm for all the study sites during August. All the sites, the magnitude of highest 1-day and 5-days maximum rainfall is showing increasing trend. Increasing trends of fraction of rainfall due to extremely wet days is also showing increasing trend in all the sites. The rice productivity showed 10th degree polynomial technological trend in all the sites and steady increase in all the sites except Samastipur. The correlation between extreme rainfall indices during monsoon season and productivity anomaly index indicate that almost all the extreme rainfall indices contribute positively to rice productivity except P95pTOT and R99pTOT over Sabour and R7.5 cm over Patna. If we assume the observed increasing trends in different extreme rainfall indices will continue, as estimated by the global circulation models, the chances of occurrence of intense rainfall events in near future will also increase proportionally and efforts should be made to prepare detailed site specific at least at district level disastrous management plan especially to reduce impact of extreme rainfall event on agricultural production system under changing climatic scenarios. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Extreme rainfall indices and its impact on rice productivity-A case study over sub-humid climatic environment,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+654685,"The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985-2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64 degrees N, winter wheat from 46 to 61 degrees N, and maize from 47 to 58 degrees N. The number of observations (site-year-variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring oats and maize, respectively. The data were used to fit simple crop development models, assuming that the duration of the period until flowering depends on temperature and day length for wheat and oats, and on temperature for maize, and that the duration of the period from flowering to maturity in all species depends on temperature only. Species-specific base temperatures were used. Sowing date of spring cereals was estimated using a threshold temperature for the mean air temperature during 10 days prior to sowing. The mean estimated temperature thresholds for sowing were 6.1, 7.1 and 10.1 degrees C for oats, wheat and maize, respectively. For spring oats and wheat the temperature threshold increased with latitude. The effective temperature sums required for both flowering and maturity increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model projections according to the observed dependencies on temperature and day length. The results showed advancements of sowing date of spring cereals by 1-3 weeks depending on climate model and region within Europe. The changes were largest in Northern Europe. Timing of flowering and maturity were projected to advance by 1-3 weeks. The changes were largest for grain maize and smallest for winter wheat, and they were generally largest in the western and northern part of the domain. There were considerable differences in predicted timing of sowing, flowering and maturity between the two climate model projections applied.","Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+308259,"Plant phenology is one of the preferred indicators of climate change, and its variation potentially impacts community dynamics and ecosystem functions. To better understand the responses of plants' flowering phenology to rising temperatures, we investigated the temperature sensitivity (expressed as the date of changes in phenology per change in temperature in degree Celsius, d degrees C-1) of flowering phenology for more than 220 plant species at 59 sites in China during the period 1963-1988. Our results indicated that most flowerings in China were significantly sensitive to the temperature in the 2months (60 days) prior to the flowering dates. Plants in warmer regions showed larger sensitivities to increased temperatures. Species flowering in the late spring and early summer were generally less sensitive to changing temperature than species flowering at other times of the year. For plants flowering in the spring, species that flower earlier showed higher temperature sensitivity; however, for plants flowering in the summer and autumn, species that flower earlier showed lower temperature sensitivity. The responses of the first and last flowering times to changing temperature were mostly consistent, so flowering durations were rarely (6.1%) sensitive to changing temperature. We hypothesize that plants in cold regions may have adapted to the more variable temperatures and thus showed lower temperature sensitivities than plants in warm regions. Overall, the responses of flowering phenology to temperature varied significantly among temperature zones and plant species, so it should be considered carefully when estimating the impacts of climate warming on the terrestrial biosphere.",Sensitivity of flowering phenology to changing temperature in China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+78145,"As an integrated result of many driving factors, significant declines in streamflow were observed in many rivers of the Loess Plateau (NW China). This can aggravate the inherent severe water shortages and threatens the regional development. Therefore, it is urgent to develop adaptive measures to regulate the water yield to ensure water security. A key step for successful implementation of such measures is to separate the response of water yield to the main driving factors of land management and climate change. In this study, the variation of annual streamflow, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and climatic water balance in a small catchment in the Loess Plateau (near Pingliang, Gansu province) was examined for over five decades, although the relative contribution of changes in land management and climate on the streamflow reduction were estimated. A statistically significant decreasing trend of -1.14mm y(-1) in annual streamflow was detected. Furthermore, an abrupt streamflow reduction because of construction of terraces and check-dams was identified around 1980. Remarkably, 74% of the total reduction in mean annual streamflow can be attributed to the soil conservation measures. Based on a literature review across the Loess Plateau, we found that the impact of changes in land management and climate on annual streamflow diminished with increasing catchment size. This means that there is a dependency on catchment size for the hydrological response to environmental change. This indicates that at least at the local scale well-considered land management may help ensure the water security at the Loess Plateau. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Separating the effects of changes in land management and climatic conditions on long-term streamflow trends analyzed for a small catchment in the Loess Plateau region, NW China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1460351,"The species concept within the genus Picoa Vittad. is here revisited in light of new molecular and ecological data obtained from samples collected throughout the Mediterranean basin. Two highly diverse widespread clades and four additional minor lineages were significantly supported by three genes dataset (ITS, 28s LSU and RPB2) inferences for 70 specimens. The two widespread clades occur in very different geographical and ecological areas associated with exclusive host plants in the genus Helianthemum. SEM study of spore surface morphology in these lineages revealed the existence of smooth ascospores in the majority of these clades. However the most frequent lineage in Europe and coastal North Africa displayed either smooth or verrucose spores. Hence this morphological criterion cannot be reliably used to discriminate between the different clades. In addition, SEM observations made on ascospores from several original collections of P. juniperi and P. lefebvrei supported the hypothesis that ornamentation depends on the degree of maturity in some of these lineages. Geographical and ecological, rather than morphological data are here suggested as the most useful characters to separate the different lineages in Picoa. Further studies focusing on these features are needed before the names P. juniperi and P. lefebvrei can be unambiguously linked with the genetic lineages observed.","Contrasted Genetic Diversity, Relevance of Climate and Host Plants, and Comments on the Taxonomic Problems of the Genus Picoa (Pyronemataceae, Pezizales)",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+31579,"Populations living in seasonal environments are exposed to systematic changes in physical conditions that restrict the growth and reproduction of many species to only a short time window of the annual cycle. Several studies have shown that climate changes over the latter part of the 20th century affected the phenology and population dynamics of single species. However, the key limitation to forecasting the effects of changing climate on ecosystems lies in understanding how it will affect interactions among species. We investigated the effects of climatic and biotic drivers on physical and biological lake processes, using a historical dataset of 40 years from Lake Washington, USA, and dynamic time-series models to explain changes in the phenological patterns among physical and biological components of pelagic ecosystems. Long-term climate warming and variability because of large-scale climatic patterns like Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) extended the duration of the stratification period by 25 days over the last 40 years. This change was due mainly to earlier spring stratification (16 days) and less to later stratification termination in fall (9 days). The phytoplankton spring bloom advanced roughly in parallel to stratification onset and in 2002 it occurred about 19 days earlier than it did in 1962, indicating the tight connection of spring phytoplankton growth to turbulent conditions. In contrast, the timing of the clear-water phase showed high variability and was mainly driven by biotic factors. Among the zooplankton species, the timing of spring peaks in the rotifer Keratella advanced strongly, whereas Leptodiaptomus and Daphnia showed slight or no changes. These changes have generated a growing time lag between the spring phytoplankton peak and zooplankton peak, which can be especially critical for the cladoceran Daphnia. Water temperature, PDO, and food availability affected the timing of the spring peak in zooplankton. Overall, the impact of PDO on the phenological processes were stronger compared with ENSO. Our results highlight that climate affects physical and biological processes differently, which can interrupt energy flow among trophic levels, making ecosystem responses to climate change difficult to forecast.",Climatic effects on the phenology of lake processes,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+50048,"Population growth and intense consumptive water uses are generating pressures on water resources in the southeast of Spain. Improving the knowledge of the climate change impacts on water cycle processes at the basin scale is a step to building adaptive capacity. In this work, regional climate model (RCM) ensembles are considered as an input to the hydrological model, for improving the reliability of hydroclimatic projections. To build the RCMs ensembles, the work focuses on probability density function (PDF)-based evaluation of the ability of RCMs to simulate of rainfall and temperature at the basin scale. To improve the spatial calibration of the continuous hydrological model used, an algorithm for remote sensing actual evapotranspiration (AET) retrieval was applied. From the results, a clear decrease in runoff is expected for 2050 in the headwater basin studied. The plausible future scenario of water shortage will produce negative impacts on the regional economy, where the main activity is irrigated agriculture. Copyright © 2015 IAHS Press.",Improving evaluation of climate change impacts on the water cycle by remote sensing ET-retrieval,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3239186,"This study investigates the relations between climate change and both runoff and sediment yield in watersheds and provides a scientific basis for water resources planning and design as well as watershed-scale soil and water conservation. The impact of climate change on runoff and sediment yield in a watershed does not occur in isolation, but is a synergistic process in which climate and vegetation jointly influence runoff and sediment yield. Previous studies have seldom addressed this synergistic effect. For this study, a regression model between climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was established using data from the Zhenjiangguan Watershed in China. By combining data on climate-driven changes in vegetation cover, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was built to simulate runoff and sediment yield in the watershed under two scenarios: changes in climate, and synergistic changes in climate and vegetation cover. The simulation results show that precipitation is the most sensitive factor affecting runoff and sediment yield; 10% change in annual precipitation can cause 10%-14% change in annual runoff and 17%-24% change in annual sediment yield. Temperature is also an important factor affecting runoff and sediment yield in the watershed. Each temperature increase of 0.7 degrees C can result in a decrease of 1.4%-2% in annual runoff and 2%-3.7% in annual sediment yield. This research reveals that accounting for synergetic change in vegetation has an impact on runoff and sediment yield results, and that the magnitude and nature of this influence vary among different combinations of temperature and precipitation changes. When temperature was kept constant, the effect of vegetation cover change caused by precipitation change on runoff and sediment yield was relatively small (only 0.9%-1.5% of the total change), and vegetation cover change inhibited the effects of precipitation change on runoff and sediment yield. When precipitation was kept constant, the effects of vegetation cover change caused by temperature change on runoff and sediment yield were relatively large (20%-30% of the total change), and vegetation cover change enhanced the effects of temperature change on runoff and sediment yield. This investigation considers the synergistic effects of climate and vegetation cover change, and thus further clarifies the extent to which climate change impacts water and ecological resources.",Impacts on watershed-scale runoff and sediment yield resulting from synergetic changes in climate and vegetation,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+1378674,"Non-indigenous jellyfish species (NIJS) Blackforida virginica have recently been introduced to the Guadiana Estuary. A modelling approach was used for the assessment of the species-specific impact on the native community, during the medusa phase. The novel interactions between NIJS and the native community are assessed through biomass variation including hydrodynamic and climatic variables. Sensitivity analysis shows that both native species, as well as NIJS highly depend on the water discharge regime, nutrient contribution and the amount of detritus production. Abiotic factors such as the Northern Atlantic Oscillation, water discharge, nutrient load and detritus production are the most influential factors for the dynamics of the estuarine ecosystem demonstrated by the model. Low water discharge and low nutrient retention rate appear to be the most favourable conditions for B. virginica. The species is a non-selective predator able to integrate into the system effectively and has caused a decrease in the biomass of other organisms in the estuarine ecosystem throughout the summer after dam removal. The B. virginica significant impact can be evaluated only when the jellyfish detritus food pathway is involved. The B. virginica predatory impact potential, as well as food preference, appears to be the most influential factors for the overall biomass variation. On the contrary, winter freshwater pulses reduce the survival rate of jellyfish polyps which results in a decrease of medusa during summer. The model presents a strong ecohydrology movement where the fluctuation of organism biomass strongly depends on the hydrological conditions including the amount of nutrient load. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Impact assessment of non-indigenous jellyfish species on the estuarine community dynamic: A model of medusa phase,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+654360,"Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 degrees C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 degrees C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500-2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. (c) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",21st century climate change in the European Alps-A review,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,1.0
+673557,"The onset of spring, noted by the timing of wildlife migratory and breeding behaviors, has been occurring earlier over the past few decades. Here, we examine 15 years of loggerhead sea turtle, Caretta caretta, nesting patterns along a 40.5 km beach on Florida's Atlantic coast. This small section of beach is considered to be the most important nesting area for this threatened species in the western hemisphere. From 1989 to 2003, the annual number of nests fluctuated between 13 000 and 25 000 without a conspicuous trend; however, based on a regression analysis, the median nesting date became earlier by roughly 10 days. The Julian day of median nesting was significantly correlated with near-shore, May sea surface temperatures that warmed an average of 0.8degreesC over this period. This marine example from warm temperate/subtropical waters represents another response of nature to recent climate trends.",Earlier nesting by loggerhead sea turtles following sea surface warming,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1449050,"When NaCl precipitates out of a saturated solution, it forms anhydrous crystals of halite at temperatures above +0.11 degrees C, but at temperatures below this threshold it instead precipitates as the dihydrate ""hydrohalite,'' NaCl center dot 2H(2)O. When sea ice is cooled, hydrohalite begins to precipitate within brine inclusions at about -23 degrees C. In this work, hydrohalite crystals are examined in laboratory experiments: their formation, their shape, and their response to warming and desiccation. Sublimation of a sea ice surface at low temperature leaves a lag deposit of hydrohalite, which has the character of a fine powder. The precipitation of hydrohalite in brine inclusions raises the albedo of sea ice, and the subsequent formation of a surface accumulation further raises the albedo. Although these processes have limited climatic importance on the modern Earth, they would have been important in determining the surface types present in regions of net sublimation on the tropical ocean in the cold phase of a Snowball Earth event. However, brine inclusions in sea ice migrate downward to warmer ice, so whether salt can accumulate on the surface depends on the relative rates of sublimation and migration. The migration rates are measured in a laboratory experiment at temperatures from -2 degrees C to -32 degrees C; the migration appears to be too slow to prevent formation of a salt crust on Snowball Earth.","Hydrohalite in cold sea ice: Laboratory observations of single crystals, surface accumulations, and migration rates under a temperature gradient, with application to ""Snowball Earth''",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1514243,"Precipitation in most of the Amazon shows multi-decadal fluctuations that were linked to oceanic forcing in the Atlantic. This modeling study shows that vegetation dynamics may play a major role in such low-frequency variability in the Amazon. Despite the large amount of annual precipitation, the presence of a dry season (albeit short) facilitates a strong impact of dynamic vegetation on precipitation persistence in the model. The year-to-year variation of net primary productivity (NPP) is dominated by that of the dry season NPP. As a result, above-normal (below-normal) precipitation in a particular year can enhance (suppress) vegetation growth, leading to widespread increase (decrease) of vegetation density in the subsequent year. Precipitation in the subsequent year is therefore more likely to be above (below) normal. This damping effect of vegetation enhances low-frequency variability of precipitation and leads to recurrent droughts or floods, a result previously considered characteristic of arid and semi-arid regions. Citation: Wang, G., S. Sun, and R. Mei (2011), Vegetation dynamics contributes to the multi-decadal variability of precipitation in the Amazon region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L19703, doi:10.1029/2011GL049017.",Vegetation dynamics contributes to the multi-decadal variability of precipitation in the Amazon region,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+103538,"The aim of this article is to determine the main sources of the variability of large West African river discharges during the years 1951-2000. The analysis is based on river discharge simulations of ORCHIDEE Land-Surface Model forced by NCC (NCEP Corrected by CRU) over this period. In a first part, an analysis of the partitionning of precipitation in the different basins is given. It is first shown that total runoff is more variable and better correlated to precipitation than evapotranspiration over every basin on annual means. Then the more complex link between evapotranspiration and precipitation is investigated through correlation and regression analyses. Over the ""dry"" (soudano-sahelian) catchments, evapotranspiration is the most variable and mainly correlated to the annual precipitation. Over the ""humid"" (equatorial) catchment, it is mainly correlated to the season length and does not depend on other characteristics of the precipitation. Over the ""intermediate"" (guinean) catchments, annual precipitation and season length both play a role, along with the average intensity of rainfall events, and other characteristics such as the number of long breaks in the rainy season. A second part focuses on the way ORCHIDEE reproduces the variability of river discharges for the years 1951-2000. It is shown that relative anomalies are correctly simulated by ORCHIDEE forced by NCC over every catchment without taking into account any land-use change. Moreover, no significant difference is found in the accuracy with which ORCHIDEE simulates the humid (1953-1970) and the dry (1973-1990) periods over two selected catchments. This implies that the impact of land-use changes was much less important than the impact of precipitation changes over the years 1951-2000 in large West African catchments.",Impacts of precipitation events and land-use changes on West African river discharges during the years 1951-2000,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+50079,"In Britain, winters are shorter and agricultural patterns are changing. There are commercial vineyards in the north of England and gardeners experiment with subtropical exotics across the country. In the subarctic regions, changes are obvious as large areas of permafrost begin to melt and ice-free sea passages increase. The implications of these changes have not been seen as a security issue because climate change has been seen in the past as a gradual process, which might impact marginally on the northern hemisphere. Climate change may however produce abrupt changes and shocks. To the extent these occur in fragile societies, both could trigger increased crime, social unrest and pressure for large-scale migration. Increased understanding outside of the environmental community which has followed climate change may generate greater concern about climate change and thus create momentum to redress the low priority that climate now receives on political agendas.",Climate change and security,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+422627,"There are strong evidences of melting in Himalayan glaciers at unprecedented rate in the past few decades. In the present study, the changes in Kolahoi glaciers in Himalaya are evaluated. Possible reasons behind these changes are also investigated. For this purpose, the changes in black carbon concentration, precipitation temperature and snow depth are investigated. A case study was carried out for the Kolahoi glacier situated at an altitude of 5245 m above sea level. The glacier area and snout change from 1857 to 2015 are investigated. It is reported in this study that the glacier has shrunk from 35 to 09.88 Sq Km. The rate of recession measured from 1922 to 2015 is reported to be 73.26 m per year. Furthermore, the rate of recession of snout is found to be 16.41 m per year from 1857 to 2015. The shirking of glacier area is linked to reduction in snow depth which in turn is affected by the increase in black carbon concentration, temperature and reduction in precipitation. Reanalysis data show that there is decrease of about 1.08 +/- 0.65 cm per decade in snow depth over Kolahoi glacier during 1979 to 2013. There are decadal increasing trends of about 76 nanogram/m(2) (statistically significant) and 0.39 degrees C (insignificant) in black carbon concentration and temperature, respectively, over Kolahoi. A decreasing trend of about 2.9 mm/month per decade in precipitation over the study area is also reported. Impact of increase in regional temperature on changes in snow depth is also quantified using inter-annual difference technique. It is reported that there is decrease of about 71 +/- 24% in snow depth for each degree increase in temperature over Kolahoi. Reduction in snow depth as a result of increase in black carbon concentration, temperature and reduction in precipitation might have resulted in the shrinking of the Kolahoi glacier.",Investigating changes in Himalayan glacier in warming environment: a case study of Kolahoi glacier,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1408796,"Aim New Zealand's cool temperate forests are usually dominated by one or more of the five native taxa of Nothofagus (Nothofagaceae; southern beech), but in certain regions there are sharp boundaries against podocarp-broadleaved forest where Nothofagus is rare or completely absent, either for historical (Pleistocene Glaciation) or climatic/biological (mild superhumid climate and competition) reasons. The dynamics of a Nothofagus boundary was investigated by monitoring disturbance-initiated establishment of isolated stands of N. fusca at the extreme limits of its regional distribution. Location The: research was carried out in a regional forest ecotone between Nothofagus forest and podocarp-broadleaved forest in the upper Taramakau Valley, South island, New Zealand. The survey region straddles a major, active fault system and associated tectonic movements and earthquakes with more distant epicentres have contributed to intermittent canopy disturbance of the local forests. Methods isolated stands of Nothofagus fusca beyond the limits of continuous Nothofagus forest were investigated during two field surveys, separated by 7-10 years. Changes in population size, stem diameter of individual trees, stand basal area and mean annual diameter increment were calculated for each of fifty-four isolated stands. Types of past and recent disturbance and the probable cause of mortality of trees were noted. Results The total population of fifty-four sample stands, ranging in size from one to > 400 stems, increased by 37.4%, and compound basal area increased by 4.7% between the two surveys. Mean stem diameter growth of isolated stands was lower than expected by empirical data for N. fusca, suggesting reduced wood increment at the limits of its distribution. Tree mortality was 0.8% per year. Fifty-one per cent of the dead stems had died as a consequence of various tl pes of natural disturbance, uproots being more common than snaps and crown breakage. Main conclusions The isolated N. fusca stands preferentially occupy sites likely to experience intermittent disturbance, mostly including disturbance of the soil cover, which facilitates their initial establishment and persistence. Because of causal relationships between mass movement on steer slopes and erosion/deposition of talus fans and river terraces, disturbance-initiated. changes in forest composition are observed across a range of different landforms.","Regional tectonics, disturbance, and population size of isolated stands of Nothofagus fusca (Nothofagaceae) in a forest ecotone in south-western New Zealand",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+185812,"Sagar Island, a gargantuan low-lying archipelago setting on the continental shelf of the Bay of Bengal is one of the most vulnerable deltas to climate change. Extreme climate-driven multifarious threats, including tidal gushes, deluge with sea water, permanent submergence of land, occurrence of droughts and water scarcity have taken a toll on food and environmental security of the island. Knowing the trend of long-term weather variables responsible for the climate of the island holds importance in adaptation and mitigation strategies to sustain food production. In the present article, weather variables of the island (1982-2010) have been analysed to detect the changes in trend using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and the magnitudes of such trends have been estimated using Sen's slope. The island receives an annual average rainfall of 1735 352 mm, with an inter-annual deviation exceeding 40% and exhibits a decreasing trend (-5.79 mm year(-1)). Significant (P < 0.05) anomalies in inter- as well intra-annual rainfall distributions (pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon months) were observed. Contribution of monsoon and post-monsoon months showed a decreasing trend (-3.84 to -4.42 mm year(-1)), while pre-monsoon rainfall showed an increasing trend (+0.98 mm year(-1)). Wide variability in inter-annual rainy days (76-139 days) and a decreasing trend (-0.24 days year(-1)) may further complicate the existing anomalies. The island is experiencing a significant (P < 0.05) rising trend of inter-annual mean (+0.021 degrees C year(-1)) and maximum temperatures (+0.060 degrees C year(-1)), with a reverse trend (decline) in minimum temperature (-0.031 degrees C year(-1)). Other weather variables like sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric evaporative demand, etc. also manifested a complex interaction and significant (P < 0.05) decreasing trend over the study periods (1982-2010). Implications of these changes were manifested on water balance front: rising trend of water scarcity during post-monsoon months (December February) in the island.","Trend analysis of weather variables in Sagar Island, West Bengal, India: a long-term perspective (1982-2010)",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+707180,"Previous studies have concluded that the increase in vegetation in the arid northwest of China is related to precipitation rather than temperature. However, these studies neglected the effects of climate warming on water availability that arise through changes in the melting characteristics of this snowy and glaciated region. Here, we characterized vegetation changes using the newly improved third-generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS-3g NDVI) from 1982 to 2011. We analyzed the temperature and precipitation trends based on data from 51 meteorological stations across Northwest China and investigated changes in the glaciers using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. Our results indicated an increasing trend in vegetation greenness in Northwest China, and this increasing trend was mostly associated with increasing winter precipitation and summer temperature. We found that the mean annual temperature increased at a rate of 0.04 degrees C per year over the past 30 years, which induced rapid glacial melting. The total water storage measured by GRACE decreased by up to 8 mm yr(-1) and primarily corresponded to the disappearance of glaciers. Considering the absence of any observed increase in precipitation in the growing season, the vegetation growth may have benefited from the melting of glaciers in high-elevation mountains (i.e., the Tianshan Mountains). Multiple regression analysis showed that temperature was positively correlated with NDVI and that gravity was negatively correlated with NDVI; together, these variables explained 84% of the NDVI variation. Our findings suggest that both winter precipitation and warming-induced glacial melting increased water availability to the arid vegetation in this region, resulting in enhanced greenness.",Impact of Climate Change on Vegetation Growth in Arid Northwest of China from 1982 to 2011,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0
+1305449,"This study demonstrates a methodology to construct short-duration rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and to quantify the variability in the rainfall intensities for different return periods with respect to the changing climate. A dynamical downscaling approach using the regional climate model (RCM) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) has been used to assess present and future climates using the downscaling of an ensemble of three global climate models (GCMs) (CSIRO-ACCESS1.3, MPI-ESM-MR ECHAM6 and NIES-MIROC5) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, a statistical approach using the well-known simple scaling method has been applied to extend the 6-hourly WRF precipitation output to the finer temporal scale of 10min. The short-duration IDF curves were then constructed for the present and future climates under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. A preliminary examination for this case study over Bac Ninh, an industrial area in the northern Vietnam, shows that there is a substantial increase in short-duration rainfall intensity in the future with respect to the baseline climate. The highest increase is towards the end of the century (2071-2100) ranging from 56 to 61% for a 10- and 100-year return period for 24-hr duration, respectively, while the increase is about 40-45% for the 10-min duration. These results strongly suggest that severe flooding in the future climate over the study region may be likely. The study results might be useful for policymakers and infrastructure planning and for insurance companies around the study area.",Constructing short-duration IDF curves using coupled dynamical-statistical approach to assess climate change impacts,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+619352,"Global mean temperature is predicted to increase by 2-7 degrees C and precipitation to change across the globe by the end of this century. To quantify climate effects on ecosystem processes, a number of climate change experiments have been established around the world in various ecosystems. Despite these efforts, general responses of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in temperature and precipitation, and especially to their combined effects, remain unclear. We used meta-analysis to synthesize ecosystem-level responses to warming, altered precipitation, and their combination. We focused on plant growth and ecosystem carbon (C) balance, including biomass, net primary production (NPP), respiration, net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and ecosystem photosynthesis, synthesizing results from 85 studies. We found that experimental warming and increased precipitation generally stimulated plant growth and ecosystem C fluxes, whereas decreased precipitation had the opposite effects. For example, warming significantly stimulated total NPP, increased ecosystem photosynthesis, and ecosystem respiration. Experimentally reduced precipitation suppressed aboveground NPP (ANPP) and NEE, whereas supplemental precipitation enhanced ANPP and NEE. Plant productivity and ecosystem C fluxes generally showed higher sensitivities to increased precipitation than to decreased precipitation. Interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation tended to be smaller than expected from additive, single-factor effects, though low statistical power limits the strength of these conclusions. New experiments with combined temperature and precipitation manipulations are needed to conclusively determine the importance of temperature-precipitation interactions on the C balance of terrestrial ecosystems under future climate conditions.",Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to temperature and precipitation change: a meta-analysis of experimental manipulation,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+707438,"The results of the International Permafrost Association's International Polar Year Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) project are presented based on field measurements from Russia during the IPY years (2007-09) and collected historical data. Most ground temperatures measured in existing and new boreholes show a substantial warming during the last 20 to 30 years. The magnitude of the warming varied with location, but was typically from 0.5 degrees C to 2 degrees C at the depth of zero annual amplitude. Thawing of Little Ice Age permafrost is ongoing at many locations. There are some indications that the late Holocene permafrost has begun to thaw at some undisturbed locations in northeastern Europe and northwest Siberia. Thawing of permafrost is most noticeable within the discontinuous permafrost domain. However, permafrost in Russia is also starting to thaw at some limited locations in the continuous permafrost zone. As a result, a northward displacement of the boundary between continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones was observed. This data set will serve as a baseline against which to measure changes of near-surface permafrost temperatures and permafrost boundaries, to validate climate model scenarios, and for temperature reanalysis. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Thermal State of Permafrost in Russia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2323250,"This study was undertaken to characterize the alpha subgroup of the proteobacteria causing the huanglongbing (HLB) disease of citrus from three different ecological zones of Kenya namely the Lower highlands (LH2, LH3, 1800-1900 m above sea level); Upper midlands (UM3, UM4, 1390-1475m), Lower midlands (LM5, LM4, LM3 of 1290-1340-1390m), by isolation and sequencing DNA encoding the L10 and L12 ribosomal proteins and the intergenic region. A 7I6-basepair DNA fragment was amplified and sequenced and consisted of 536 basepairs of DNA encoding the L10 protein, 44 basepairs of DNA intergenic region and 136 basepairs of DNA that partially encodes the L12 protein. Sequences of rpL10/L12 protein genes from Kenyan strains were 98% and 81% similar to the South African 'Candidatus Liberibacter africanus strain Nelspruit' and the Asian 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' strains, respectively. The intergenic rDNA sequence of Kenyan strain from UM and LM showed 84% similarity with 'Candidatus L. africanus strain Nelspruit' and 50% similarity with 'Candidatus L. asiaticus' strain. However, the LH strain had an 11-basepairs deletion, while the LM4 had a 5-basepair deletion in the intergenic region compared to 'Candidatus L. africanus strain Nelspruit'. The L10 amino acid sequence was 100% homologous among HLB bacteria obtained from the agro-ecological zones in Kenya and the L10 protein sequence was also homologus to 'Candidatus L. africanus strain Nelspruit'. Nevertheless, the L10 amino acid sequence of 'Candidatus L. asiaticus' and the 'Candidatus L. africanus subsp.capensis' differed from the Kenyan strains by 18.36% and 11.82%, respectively. Phylogenetic analysis of both the L10/L12 rDNA sequences and the L10 amino acid sequences clustered the Kenyan strains of the 'Candidatus Liberibacter' species with members of alpha subdivision of proteobacteria.",Molecular characterization of 'Candidatus Liberibacter' species/strains causing huanglongbing disease of citrus in Kenya,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+693855,"As one of the smallest and most remote low-lying atoll countries on earth, Tuvalu seems to exemplify a typical case of forced migration induced by environmental change. Tuvalu has been essentially perceived through the lens of environmental displacement and vulnerability to climate change - a perception that has been consistently reinforced and sustained by the discourse of its government and media interests. For Pacific Islanders, migration is often seen as a significant pattern of lifestyle, and even a social routine at times. This study employed a qualitative research approach, involving questionnaires and interviews with Tuvaluans, in both the migration origin of Tuvalu and migration destination of New Zealand. We show that the majority of Tuvaluans who migrated to New Zealand did not necessarily do so for climate change reasons. However, the issue of climate change remains a common theme in the minds of Tuvaluan migrants interviewed. This research shows the importance of climate change as a migration driver, in a context of increasing number of Tuvaluan migrants relocating to New Zealand through various immigration schemes, such as the Pacific Access Category scheme. We review and assess the motives underpinning the migration decision of those who have resettled in New Zealand. Contemporary Tuvaluan migration to New Zealand is uniquely related to and defined by complex relationships between people and environment. The migration drivers include environmental change, employment, education and for the betterment of future generations. Whether by design or not, these socio-economic and environmental developments are all responsible for the creation of environmental change in which some Tuvaluans have sought to respond through emigration to New Zealand.",Contrasted Views on Environmental Change and Migration: the Case of Tuvaluan Migration to New Zealand,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1457904,"Immense land-cover changes in Iceland over the last millennium have encompassed birch (Betula pubescencs) woodland depletion and extensive soil erosion; few studies have focused on spatial distribution change of birch woodland in Iceland over centuries. The main objectives of this study were to (1) map the changes of birch woodland cover in Ajrsardalur (14,000 ha) in southern Iceland, over a period of 350 years from late sixteenth to early twentieth century, and (2) explain the impact of socio-economic and natural forces on the woodland cover over three periods: 1587-1708, 1708-1880 and 1880-1938. We used a combined approach of historical reconstruction from diverse written archives, GIS-techniques and field work. About half of the Ajrsardalur valley was covered by birch woodland in the late sixteenth century but over a period of 350 years 94 % of woodland had been depleted. The woodland was intensively used for firewood and charcoal making during the period with limited land management restriction. The main driving force for this development was socio-economic, where the form of ownership was a fundamental factor for the fate of the woodland. Harsh climate and volcanism further exacerbated the woodland during times when it had become fragmented and beyond its state of recovery.",Decline of Birch Woodland Cover in Ajrsardalur Iceland from 1587 to 1938,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+487480,"Aims Understanding how tree growth is influenced by climate is vital for predicting how forests will respond to climate change, yet there have been few studies of tree growth spanning macroclimatic gradients. The aim of this study is to correlate growth of a single lineage of broadleaf evergreen trees with continental-scale variability in climate. Location Australia's temperate mesic eucalypt forests, spanning latitudes from 23 to 43 degrees S and longitudes from 115 to 153 degrees E. Methods We compiled and analysed a dataset containing around half a million measurements of growth in eucalypt tree diameter, collected from 2409 permanent forestry plots. These plots spanned a range of 558-2105 mm mean annual precipitation and 6-22 degrees C mean annual temperature. Generalized additive models were used to study the relationship between growth in tree diameter and several temperature and water availability variables. Results Tree growth increased with precipitation, but with a diminishing response above a mean annual precipitation of 1400 mm. There was a peaked response to temperature, with maximum growth occurring at a mean annual temperature of 11 degrees C and maximum temperature of the warmest month of 25-27 degrees C. Lower temperatures directly constrain growth. High temperatures primarily reduced growth by reducing water availability, but they also appeared to exert a direct negative effect. Our best model, which included maximum temperature of the warmest month and the ratio of precipitation to evaporation, explained 28% of the deviance. Main conclusions The productivity of Australia's temperate eucalypt forests could decline substantially as the climate warms, given that 87% of these forests currently experience a mean annual temperature above 11 degrees C, where the highest growth rates were observed. This will reduce carbon sequestration and slow recovery after catastrophic disturbances such as wildfire.",A warmer world will reduce tree growth in evergreen broadleaf forests: evidence from Australian temperate and subtropical eucalypt forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+784880,"Much discussion has taken place exploring a potential connection between the 2007-2009 Fertile Crescent drought and Syria's uprising-turned civil war beginning in 2011. This study takes an integrated perspective on the 2007-2009 drought in the border region of Iraq, Syria, and Turkey by looking at the meteorological, agricultural, and socioeconomic aspects of drought vulnerability. Satellite-based precipitation and vegetation data help outline the drought's spatial and temporal properties. In order to understand the context in which this drought happened, we also look at the trends in vegetation productivity between 2001 and 2015, as well as each country's different politico-economic factors affecting land and water resource management leading up to the drought. The findings show that, although the drought was severe in Syria, it was not the only country affected, nor necessarily the worst hit meteorologically. The agricultural drought lasted 2 yr in most affected areas on the Iraqi and Syrian sides, however, only 1 yr in the affected areas on the Turkish side. The vegetation trend analysis shows a striking difference between the Syrian and Turkish sides of the border. Turkey experienced a general improvement in land productivity between 2001 and 2015, whereas Iraq and Syria show a generally negative productivity trend. The fact that the decline in rainfall had different effects on crops in each of the three countries highlights the role government and private sector resource management and infrastructure play in reducing drought vulnerability. The findings of this study highlight the need for an integrated approach to research that investigates the interconnection between climate and conflict.","Differences in resource management affects drought vulnerability across the borders between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1491596,"Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, which may contribute to mortality resulting from fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses of forest plots from across the western US show that high pre-fire climatic water deficit was related to increased post-fire tree mortality probabilities. This relationship between climate and fire was present after accounting for fire defences and injuries, and appeared to influence the effects of crown and stem injuries. Climate and fire interactions did not vary substantially across geographical regions, major genera and tree sizes. Our findings support recent physiological evidence showing that both drought and heating from fire can impair xylem conductivity. Warming trends have been linked to increasing probabilities of severe fire weather and fire spread; our results suggest that warming may also increase forest fire severity (the number of trees killed) independent of fire intensity (the amount of heat released during a fire).",Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3314964,"Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5's assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003-2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993-2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.",Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+3986635,"A current trend is to consider that the presence of free hanging sound absorbers (FHU) installed in Thermally Activated Buildings (TABS) reduces the thermal comfort by lowering radiative and convective exchanges with the cooled concrete slab. In this study we propose a simple thermal model of FHU which may be implemented into building simulation software like TRNSys. This model considers convective and radiative exchanges but also the air flows above and below FHU. Experimentally, we observe that a ceiling coverage of 50% leads to a operative temperature increase of 0.3°C. In the same conditions, the proposed model very well agrees with measurements. However, for a coverage ratio of 70%, we measure an increase of 1.0 °C and model 0.5°C. New experiments are currently running to confirm these first results and improve the model. © 2014 Proceedings - Windsor Conference 2014: Counting the Cost of Comfort in a Changing World. All rights reserved.",Measure and model of free hanging sound absorbers impact on thermal comfort,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+545438,"West Greenland has had multiple episodes of human colonization and cultural transitions over the past 4,500 y. However, the explanations for these large-scale human migrations are varied, including climatic factors, resistance to adaptation, economic marginalization, mercantile exploration, and hostile neighborhood interactions. Evaluating the potential role of climate change is complicated by the lack of quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions near settlement areas and by the relative stability of Holocene temperature derived from ice cores atop the Greenland ice sheet. Here we present high-resolution records of temperature over the past 5,600 y based on alkenone unsaturation in sediments of two lakes in West Greenland. We find that major temperature changes in the past 4,500 y occurred abruptly (within decades), and were coeval in timing with the archaeological records of settlement and abandonment of the Saqqaq, Dorset, and Norse cultures, which suggests that abrupt temperature changes profoundly impacted human civilization in the region. Temperature variations in West Greenland display an antiphased relationship to temperature changes in Ireland over centennial to millennial timescales, resembling the interannual to multidecadal temperature seesaw associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation.",Abrupt Holocene climate change as an important factor for human migration in West Greenland,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+134321,"Anecdotes from local residents and modeling studies suggest that deforestation may delay the onset of the rainy season (O) in western Brazil, but detection studies using climatological time series are not available. Here we investigate trends in O in the state of Rondonia, Brazil, a region that has been continuously deforested since the 1970s. Daily rainfall data from 16 station time series, spanning periods of at least 25 years, with five covering more than 30 years, are used. We define O as the first day after 1 September with rainfall greater than 20 mm d(-1). A t test indicates that for stations that lie inside the major deforested area, O has significantly shifted to, on average, 11 days (and up to 18 days) later in the year over the last three decades. However, for stations that lie in areas that have not been heavily deforested, O has not shifted significantly. Nonparametric and parametric trend analyses all gave similar results for the change of O with time, and all of the statistically significant results indicated a delay in O. Twenty-five percent (four) of the stations analyzed showed a marked shift in timing of O: these stations are located inside deforested areas, primarily near the BR 364 highway that crosses Rondonia. Delayed onset may be a result of land use change, and this signal may strengthen in future: current delaying trends may be as great as 0.6 days per year, and after 30 years of deforestation the onset of the rainy season is expected to be 18 days later.","Evidence that deforestation affects the onset of the rainy season in Rondonia, Brazil",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+226774,"By transplanting original plants/soil system into lysimeters and treating those lysimeters with five precipitation treatments: 80%, 90%, 100%, 110% and 120% of the average annual precipitation, plant productivity and soil moisture were observed. Field experiment in Yuansi county, Hebei, showed that precipitation change was a very sensitive factor influencing both the productivity and soil moisture. Precipitation increase resulted in the increase of productivity. When precipitation increased by 10%, productivity increased by about 15%. The experiment also showed that higher precipitation generally resulted in higher soil moisture, which should be the reason for productivity increase in high precipitation treatments, though good plant growth, in some treatments, might also feed back on the soil moisture change. In order to see the possible effect of both temperature and precipitation changes on soil moisture, without changing plant growth pattern, WAVES model is calibrated, validated and used for the simulation of response of soil moisture to climatic change. The simulation shows that temperature associated with precipitation decrease or no precipitation change will definitely result in the decrease of soil moisture, indicating a great possibility of plant productivity decrease. Though precipitation increase would benefit the soil moisture, however, it is showed that 10% precipitation increase will not bring any benefit to soil moisture if temperature rises by 4 °C. Precipitation rise by 10% will possibly create only a slightly favorable soil moisture condition if temperature rises by 2 ""C. It is thus suggested that the positive effect of 10% precipitation increase on soil moisture will possibly be offset by roughly a temperature rise of 3 ""C . As soil moisture is the key factor influencing plant productivity, plant productivity will possibly follow the same trend. However, since the effect Of CO2 concentration rise on plant transpiration and plant growth is not considered in the model simulation, there are still quite a lot of uncertainties remaining. The results need to be testified by future studies.",Impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on soil moisture of Taihang mountains,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+365438,"The transport of methane from the rhizosphere to the atmosphere takes place in the intercellular spaces and stomata of wetland plants, and foliar gas exchange is one of the critical steps of the transport process. The objectives of our research were to investigate: (i) variation in foliar gas exchange among four common wetland plant species (i.e., Peltandra virginica L., Orontium aquaticum L., Juncus effusus L., and Taxodium distichum L.), (ii) the role of key environmental factors (i.e., light, temperature, and carbon dioxide concentration) in controlling foliar methane emission, and (iii) physiological mechanisms underlying the variation in methane emission due to species and the environment. Experiments were conducted in an instantaneous, flow-through gas-exchange system that operated on a mass balance approach and concurrently measured foliar fluxes of methane, water vapor, and carbon dioxide. The chamber system allowed for the control of light, temperature, humidity, and carbon dioxide concentration. Diel patterns of methane emission varied among species, with daylight emissions from P virginica and O. aquaticum 2-4 times those of J. effusus and T distichum in saturating light. Foliar methane emission from P. virginica (1.80 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)) under ambient daylight conditions was an order of magnitude higher than that of the other three species (similar to 0.20 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)). As leaf temperature was increased by 10 degrees C, methane emission increased by a factor of 1.5-2.2, and the temperature effect was independent of stomatal conductance. When data were pooled among the four species, varying the light and carbon dioxide concentrations in a stepwise manner produced changes in foliar methane emission that were associated with stomatal conductance (r(2) = 0.52). To scale our observations to other wetland plant species, a stepwise multiple regression model is offered that incorporates stomatal conductance and net carbon dioxide assimilation to estimate instantaneous methane emission from foliar surfaces. The model indicates that changes in stomatal conductance affect methane emission three times more than equivalent changes in net carbon dioxide assimilation. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Physiological control of leaf methane emission from wetland plants,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+284952,"This paper focuses on the regional impact of climate change on several critical water quantity and quality issues. The study area is the Ali Efenti Basin in central Greece. The soil and water assessment tool daily stop conceptual model has been applied to simulate the water cycle and the nitrogen transport within the catchment. The outputs of six general circulation models have been used to perturb the time series of precipitation and temperature. For all of the scenarios a decrease in streamflow is observed and there is an increase in the magnitude of floods for certain return periods. Changes in surface water runoff influence nitrogen losses, resulting in an annual reduction of the nitrogen flux to the water body.",Quantity and quality integrated catchment modeling under climate change with use of soil and water assessment tool model,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2090005,"Amazon beef and soybean industries, the primary drivers of Amazon deforestation, are increasingly responsive to economic signals emanating from around the world, such as those associated with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, ""mad cow disease"") outbreaks and China's economic growth. The expanding role of these economic ""teleconnections"" (coupled phenomena that take place in distant places on the planet) led to a 3-year period (2002-2004) of historically high deforestation rates. But it also increases the potential for large-scale conservation in the region as markets and finance institutions demand better environmental and social performance of beef and soy producers. Cattle ranchers and soy farmers who have generally opposed ambitious government regulations that require forest reserves on private property are realizing that good land stewardship-including compliance with legislation-may increase their access to expanding domestic and international markets and to credit and lower the risk of ""losing"" their land to agrarian reform. The realization of this potential depends on the successful negotiation of social and environmental performance criteria and an associated system of certification that are acceptable to both the industries and civil society. The foot-and-mouth eradication system, in which geographic zones win permission to export beef, may provide an important model for the design of a low-cost, peer-enforced, socio environmental certification system that becomes the mechanism by which beef and soy industries gain access to markets outside the Amazon.",Globalization of the Amazon soy and beef industries: Opportunities for conservation,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1432101,"Starting in 1971, stream flow and climatologic data have been collected in the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed, which is part of the Central Mississippi River Basin (CMRB) Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) site. Since 1992, water quality and socio-economic data have complemented these data sets. Previous modeling efforts highlighted the challenges created by the presence of a claypan. Specific changes were introduced in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (i) to better simulate percolation through and saturation above the claypan and (ii) to simulate the spatial and temporal distributions of the timing of field operations throughout the watershed. Our objectives were to document the changes introduced into the code, demonstrate that these changes improved simulation results, describe the model's parameterization, calibration, and validation, and assess atrazine [6-chloro-N-ethyl-N'-(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine] management practices in the hydrologic context of claypan soils. Model calibration was achieved for 1993 to 2010 at a daily time step for flow and at a monthly time step for water quality constituents. The new percolation routines ensured correct balance between surface runoff and groundwater. The temporal heterogeneity of atrazine application ensured the correct frequency of daily atrazine loads. Atrazine incorporation by field cultivation resulted in a 17% simulated reduction in atrazine load without a significant increase in sediment yields. Reduced atrazine rates produced proportional reductions in simulated atrazine transport. The model can be used to estimate the impact of other drivers, e.g., changing aspects of climate, land use, cropping systems, tillage, or management practices, in this context.",Long-Term Agroecosystem Research in the Central Mississippi River Basin: SWAT Simulation of Flow and Water Quality in the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+455772,"Native grasslands have been altered to a greater extent than any other biome in North America. The habitats and resources needed to support breeding performance of grassland birds endemic to prairie ecosystems are currently threatened by land management practices and impending climate change. Climate models for the Great Plains prairie region predict a future of hotter and drier summers with strong multiyear droughts and more frequent and severe precipitation events. We examined how fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado influenced nest survival of an avian species that has experienced recent population declines, the Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus). Nest survival averaged 27.2% over a 7-yr period (n = 936 nests) and declined as the breeding season progressed. Nest survival was favored by dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Projected changes in regional precipitation patterns will likely influence nest survival, with positive influences of predicted declines in summer rainfall yet negative effects of more intense rain events. The interplay of climate change and land use practices within prairie ecosystems may result in Mountain Plovers shifting their distribution, changing local abundance, and adjusting fecundity to adapt to their changing environment.",Drought and Cooler Temperatures Are Associated with Higher Nest Survival in Mountain Plovers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+813230,"The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 degrees C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 degrees C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 +/- 216.2 million and +194.5 +/- 276.5 million total population and +350.2 +/- 158.8 million and +410.7 +/- 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 degrees C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 +/- 79.2 million and -216.2 +/- 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 degrees C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 degrees C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 degrees C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.",Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 degrees C warmer worlds,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+105291,"The potential effects of climate change on future water budget components and streamflow in the Mississippi River (Ontario) are assessed. Analyses of historic hydrometric data indicate an increasing trend in winter streamflows due to the rising winter air temperatures across the region over the latter half of the 20th century. These temperatures have resulted in reduced snow accumulation and earlier spring snowmelt. Projected future climate data are developed using the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model and downscaled using the change factor method for the Mississippi River watershed (Ontario). The projected future climate data are then used as input to a calibrated hydrologic model for simulation of future water balance and streamflows in this river basin. These simulations predict a gradual annual rate of change of: 0.1% increase in total precipitation; 0.2% increase in rainfall; 0.7% decrease in snowfall; 0.2% increase in potential evapotranspiration; 0.1% decrease in soil moisture; 1.4% increase in water deficit; 0.5% increase in streamflow during winter months; and 0.3% decrease in summer streamflows. Cyclic pattern analysis of the historic streamflow records suggests the existence of pronounced 3-year and 12-year cycles, providing short-term streamflow forecasting opportunities for optimum reservoir management operations during the wet-year/dry-year cycles.",Reservoir management under predictable climate variability and change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3298983,"Groundwater (GW) and recharge as the main drivers of the water budget are challenging to quantify due to the complexity of hydrological processes and limited observations. Understanding these processes in relation to climate is crucial for evaluating future water availability of Tibetan Plateau. By computing storage changes in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment terrestrial water storage and Global Land Surface Data Assimilation System land surface state variables and water balance approach, we calculated GW storage changes and recharges. In the Qaidam Basin (northern Tibetan Plateau), terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment revealed a significant increasing trend of 25.5 mm/year during 2002-2012. However, an obviously turning point was found around 2012 and terrestrial water storage revealed a significant decreasing rate of 37.9 mm/year during 2013-2016. Similarly, GW (recharge) had a significant increasing trend of 21.2 (4.5) mm/year before 2012 and a decreasing rate of 32.1 (10.9) mm/year after 2012. Domain-averaged difference (P-ET) between precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET) also exhibited an increasing trend of 4.4 mm/year during 2002-2012 and a decreasing rate of 9.0 mm/year during 2013-2016. Precipitation followed dissimilar pattern with an increasing rate of 5.3 mm/year during 2002-2012 while no significant trend during 2013-2016. However, ET had a consistent increasing trend over the basin during the past 15 years (0.9 mm/year before 2012 and 9.0 mm/year thereafter). This study concluded that GW amount and distribution is mainly controlled by precipitation and ET. Decrease in precipitation at high elevations and increase in ET may impact future groundwater availability in this region.",Response of Groundwater Storage and Recharge in the Qaidam Basin (Tibetan Plateau) to Climate Variations From 2002 to 2016,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+157837,"Arctic marine ecosystems are disproportionately impacted by global warming. Sea ice plays an important role in the regional climate system and the loss of perennial sea ice has diverse ecological implications. Here we investigate the causes of an unusually early and strong phytoplankton bloom in the northern Greenland Sea (20 degrees W 10 degrees E, 75 degrees N -80 degrees N) during the 2010 season. In order to better understand the anomalous bloom in 2010, we examine the correlation between satellite-derived biomass and several possible environmental factors for the period 2003-2012. Results show that the timing of sea ice melt played an important role in promoting the growth of phytoplankton. Multivariate lagged regression analysis shows that phytoplankton biomass (CHL) is correlated with ice concentration (ICE) and ice melting, as well as sea surface temperature (SST) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). During 2010, the spring peak in biomass came much earlier and achieved a higher value than most other years in the satellite archive record, which was due to earlier and more extensive sea ice melt in that year. Relative lower SST and PAR in spring and early summer in year 2010 associated with a persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index were possible drivers of the bloom. Wind direction changed from the southeast to southwest direction in spring, possibly transporting nutrient enriched melt runoff from glaciers on Greenland and other sources from the south to northern coastal regions. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Unusual phytoplankton bloom phenology in the northern Greenland Sea during 2010,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+621229,"Understanding the interaction of solar radiation with the ice cover is critical in determining the heat and mass balance of the Arctic ice pack, and in assessing potential impacts due to climate change. Because of the importance of the ice-albedo feedback mechanism, information on the surface state of the ice cover is needed. Observations of the surface state of sea ice were obtained from helicopter photography missions made during the 1994 Arctic Ocean Section cruise. Photographs from one flight, taken during the height of the melt season (31 July 1994) at 76° N, 172° W, were analyzed in detail. Bare ice covered 82% of the total area, melt ponds 12%, and open water 6%. There was considerable variability in these area fractions on scales &lt; 1 km2. Sample areas &gt;2-3 km2 gave representative values of ice concentration and pond fraction. Melt ponds were numerous, with a number density of 1800 ponds km-2. The melt ponds had a mean area of 62 m2 ,a median area of 14 m2, and a size distribution that was well fit by a cumulative lognormal distribution. While leads make up only a small portion of the total area, they are the source of virtually all of the solar energy input to the ocean.",Arctic sea-ice conditions and the distribution of solar radiation during summer,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+231114,"Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1-2 degrees C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions.",Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+96217,"Instrumental observations suggest that Lake Tanganyika, the largest rift lake in East Africa, has become warmer, increasingly stratified and less productive over the past 90 years (refs 1,2). These trends have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, it remains unclear whether the decrease in productivity is linked to the temperature rise(3,4), and whether the twentieth-century trends are anomalous within the context of longer-term variability. Here, we use the TEX86 temperature proxy, the weight per cent of biogenic silica and charcoal abundance from Lake Tanganyika sediment cores to reconstruct lake-surface temperature, productivity and regional wildfire frequency, respectively, for the past 1,500 years. We detect a negative correlation between lake-surface temperature and primary productivity, and our estimates of fire frequency, and hence humidity, preclude decreased nutrient input through runoff as a cause for observed periods of low productivity. We suggest that, throughout the past 1,500 years, rising lake-surface temperatures increased the stratification of the lake water column, preventing nutrient recharge from below and limiting primary productivity. Our records indicate that changes in the temperature of Lake Tanganyika in the past few decades exceed previous natural variability. We conclude that these unprecedented temperatures and a corresponding decrease in productivity can be attributed to anthropogenic global warming, with potentially important implications for the Lake Tanganyika fishery.",Late-twentieth-century warming in Lake Tanganyika unprecedented since AD 500,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2317920,"Almost half of the world's extant primate species are of conservation concern [IUCN, International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species, 2008]. Primates are also effective seed dispersers. The implications of and interactions between these two facts are increasingly understood, and data demonstrating the consequences of losing primates for forest ecology are now available from throughout the tropics. However, a reality is that not all species-and the mutualisms among them-can be protected. Conservation managers must make difficult decisions and use shortcuts in the implementation of conservation tactics. Using taxa as ""umbrellas"" is one such shortcut, although a lack of an operational definition of what an umbrella species is and how to choose one has made implementing this tactic difficult. In this study, I discuss primates as umbrellas by defining a selection index in terms of richness/co-occurrence, rarity, and sensitivity to anthropogenic disturbance. I evaluate the anthropoid assemblage of Kibale National Park, Uganda, in light of the selection index and determine that Cercopithecus is the genus best fitting the criteria for umbrella status. I then evaluate the functional significance-in terms of seed dispersal-of using Cercopithecus monkeys (guenons) as umbrellas. Results from 1,047 hr of observation of focal fruiting trees in Kibale indicate that Cercopithecus ascanius was the most commonly observed frugivore visitor (July 2001-June 2002). These data corroborate earlier data collected in Kibale demonstrating that guenons are highly effective seed dispersers. Patterns of richness/co-occurrence, rarity, and sensitivity observed in Kibale are reflected in Afrotropical forests more generally, with the genus Cercopithecus tending to exhibit greatest richness/co-occurrence with taxonomically similar species, to be neither extremely rare nor ubiquitous, and also to be moderately sensitive to human disturbance. Moreover, in all available evaluations of frugivory in Afrotropical forests, guenons emerge as among the most important seed dispersers relative to other taxa. Am. J. Primatol. 73:9-24, 2011. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.","Primate Seed Dispersers as Umbrella Species: A Case Study From Kibale National Park, Uganda, With Implications for Afrotropical Forest Conservation",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2365226,"Nepal has experienced recent changes in two crucial climatic variables: temperature and precipitation. Therefore, climate-induced water security concerns have now become more pronounced in Nepal as changes in temperature and precipitation have already altered some hydrological processes such as the river runoff in some river systems. However, the linkage between precipitation patterns and streamflow characteristics are poorly understood, especially in small rivers. We analysed the temporal trends of temperature, precipitation, and extreme indices of wet and dry spells in the Rosi watershed in Central Nepal, and observed the temporal patterns of the streamflow of the Rosi river. We also examined the linkages between the average and extreme climate indices and streamflow. We found that the area has warmed up by an average of 0.03 degrees C/year, and has seen a significant decline in precipitation. The dry spell as represented by the maximum length of the dry spell (CDD) and the magnitude of dryness (AII) has become more pronounced, while the wet spell as represented by the number of heavy rainfall days (R5D) and the precipitation intensity on wet days (SDII) has diminished significantly. Our analysis shows that recent changes in precipitation patterns have affected the streamflow of the Rosi river, as manifested in the observed decline in annual and seasonal streamflows. The decrease in the availability of water in the river is likely to have severe consequences for water security in the area.","Temporal Changes in Precipitation and Temperature and their Implications on the Streamflow of Rosi River, Central Nepal",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1547056,"Addressing the underrepresentation of women in science is a top priority for many institutions, but the majority of efforts to increase representation of women are neither evidence-based nor rigorously assessed. One exception is the gender bias habit-breaking intervention (Carnes et al., 2015), which, in a cluster-randomized trial involving all but two departmental clusters (N = 92) in the 6 STEMM focused schools/colleges at the University of Wisconsin Madison, led to increases in gender bias awareness and self-efficacy to promote gender equity in academic science departments and perceptions of a more positive departmental climate. Following this initial success, the present study compares, in a preregistered analysis, hiring rates of new female faculty pre- and post-manipulation. Whereas the proportion of women hired by control departments remained stable over time, the proportion of women hired by intervention departments increased by an estimated 18 percentage points (OR = 2.23, d(OR) = 0.34). Though the preregistered analysis did not achieve conventional levels of statistical significance (p < 0.07), the study has a hard upper limit on statistical power, as the cluster-randomized trial has a maximum sample size of 92 departmental clusters. These findings, however, have undeniable practical significance for the advancement of women in science, and provide promising evidence that psychological interventions can facilitate gender equity and diversity.",A gender bias habit-breaking intervention led to increased hiring of female faculty in STEMM departments,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+574696,"Projections of equatorial sea surface temperature from CMIP5 climate models are important for understanding possible future changes in marine habitats, local rainfall and climate processes such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. Interpreting the projected changes in the tropical Pacific is complicated by the systematic cold tongue bias and overly westward location of the Warm Pool edge at the equator in coupled models. Here an index based on the maximum zonal salinity gradient is used to differentiate the Warm Pool from the cold tongue in each of 19 CMIP5 models. Warming is then calculated relative to the dynamic edge of the Warm Pool between the second halves of the 20th and 21st Centuries from the RCP8.5 scenario to provide a bias adjusted SST projection. Based on this definition of the edge, while the Warm Pool edge is projected to warm, it is likely to remain within 100 of its present longitude. This is in stark contrast to the large projected eastward displacements of the isotherms that are usually used to define the edge. Adjusting for the edge, warming within the Warm Pool is projected to be fairly uniform with surface water freshening. Projected warming is enhanced over the cold tongue with the net effect of reducing the zonal SST gradient. In contrast, if the warming is calculated without correcting for the edge of the Warm Pool, the warming signature is dominated by the poorer performing models with an overly westward Warm Pool, resulting in enhanced warming across the equatorial Pacific. Bias adjusting realigns the warming signature and reduces the model spread of projected warming. The biased warming signature also introduces spurious meridional and zonal SST gradients. This will potentially alter the behaviour of the atmospheric convergence zones and the dynamics of ENSO which is influenced by the extent of the Warm Pool and zonal SST gradients. Crown Copyright (C) 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd.",Projected sea surface temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific relative to the Warm Pool edge,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+149617,"Phenology studies the cycle of events in nature that are initiated and driven by an annually recurring environment. Plant phenology is expected to be one of the most sensitive and easily observable natural indicators of climate change. On the Tibetan Plateau (TP), an accelerated warming since the mid-1980s has resulted in significant environmental changes. These new conditions are accompanied by phenological changes that are characterized by considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Satellite remote sensing observed widespread advance in the start of the plant growing season across the plateau during the 1980s and 1990s but substantial delay over 2000-2011 in the southwest although it continued to advance in the northeast regions of the TP. Both observational studies and controlled experiments have revealed, to some extent, the positive role of higher preseason temperature and even more precipitation in advancing the leaf onset and first flowering date of the TP. However, a number of rarely visited research issues that are essential for understanding the role of phenology in ecosystem responses and feedback processes to climate change remain to be solved. Our review recommends that addressing the following questions should be a high priority. How did other phenological events change, such as flowering and fruiting phenology? What are the influences from environmental changes other than temperature and precipitation, including human activities such as grazing? What are the genetic and physiological bases of plants phenological responses? How does phenological change influence ecosystem structure and function at different scales and feedback to the climate system? Investigating these research questions requires, first of all, new data of the associated environmental variables, and consistent and reliable phenological observation using different methodologies (i.e. in situ observations and remote sensing).",Plant phenological responses to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau: research status and challenges,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+393796,"Based on field surveys and analyses of optical spaceborne images (LandSat5, LandSat7), we report recent decline in the areal extent of glaciers in the Rwenzori Mountains of East Africa from 2.01 +/- 0.56 km(2) in 1987 to 0.96 +/- 0.34 km(2) in 2003. The spatially uniform loss of glacial cover at lower elevations together with meteorological trends derived from both station and reanalysis data, indicate that increased air temperature is the main driver. Clear trends toward increased air temperatures over the last four decades of similar to 0.5 degrees C per decade exist without significant changes in annual precipitation. Extrapolation of trends in glacial recession since 1906 suggests that glaciers in the Rwenzori Mountains will disappear within the next two decades.",Recent glacial recession in the Rwenzori Mountains of East Africa due to rising air temperature,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+624976,"Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations(1,2), taxonomic groups(2-4) and/or biological responses(5,6). This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change. This yielded a meta-database of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver. Included were instances of marine taxa responding as expected, in a manner inconsistent with expectations, and taxa demonstrating no response. From this database, 81-83% of all observations for distribution, phenology, community composition, abundance, demography and calcification across taxa and ocean basins were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change. Of the species responding to climate change, rates of distribution shifts were, on average, consistent with those required to track ocean surface temperature changes. Conversely, we did not find a relationship between regional shifts in spring phenology and the seasonality of temperature. Rates of observed shifts in species' distributions and phenology are comparable to, or greater, than those for terrestrial systems.",Global imprint of climate change on marine life,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1343506,"A cellular automata model is proposed to analyze the progress of citrus variegated chlorosis epidemics in Sao Paulo orange plantations. In this model epidemiological and environmental features, such as motility of sharpshooter vectors that perform Levy flights, level of plant hydric and nutritional stress, and seasonal climatic effects, are included. The observed epidemic data were quantitatively reproduced by the proposed model on varying the parameters controlling vector motility, plant stress, and initial population of diseased plants.",Cellular automata model for citrus variegated chlorosis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1097808,"Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and global and regional climates are already changing as a result of human activities. More change seems likely. Historical climate variations, particularly in rainfall, have had significant impacts on the Australian cropping industries and consequently we would anticipate additional impacts from future climate change. However, the magnitude of these changes is highly uncertain at regional levels especially for rainfall. To deal with this uncertainty a systematic assessment approach is described here that separates the effects of changed temperatures, rainfall and CO2 concentration on regional and national wheat yields, including the effects of management adaptations in response to the above changes. This allows addressing questions such as 'Are there beneficial effects of moderate warming?' 'If so, at what point does further warming become negative?' and 'What is the benefit of management adaptation to climate changes?' Furthermore, the approach allows recombination of the components in a risk assessment approach to investigate questions such as 'What level of CO2 increase is required to offset deleterious changes in rainfall and temperature ?' or 'What is the probability of reductions in the value of the wheat industry ?' A key aspect of the international debate on climate change is in regard to what constitutes 'dangerous' climate change. Some preliminary assessments suggest that a global temperature increase of more than 2 degrees C will have increasingly deleterious net effects. This study provides some additional support (albeit limited) to this emerging view. In southerly sites and also at a national level, small increases in temperature (up to 1 degrees C) are simulated to slightly increase regional yields. Adaptations can extend the beneficial effects of higher temperatures out to 3 degrees C but only in scenarios where rainfall increases. In drier scenarios, temperature increases above 1 degrees C are deleterious. In more northerly sites in contrast, any increase in temperature reduces regional yields. Management adaptations (changed varieties, changed planting windows) can significantly offset the negative impacts of climate changes. These adaptations were most effective with small temperature increases (1 to 2 degrees C), raising yields by 6 to 12%. At higher temperatures, further benefit was limited, particularly under scenarios with reduced rainfall. The greatest benefit from adaptations arose from positive management responses in higher rainfall scenarios where benefits of up to 16% were simulated. The beneficial effects of elevated CO2 concentrations on yield can also substantially offset small climate changes. An increase in CO2 concentration to about 650ppm is calculated as needed to offset either a 20% reduction in rainfall alone or a temperature increase of 4 degrees C. Smaller increases in CO2 are required to maintain yields when adaptation is practiced. [GRAPHICS] . In a preliminary attempt to address the issue of 'dangerous' climate change, we calculate the probability (risk) of the value of the national wheat crop dropping below the historical average in response to scenarios of global CO2 increase and associated climate change. The likelihood increases with CO2 level and climate changes, increasing to about 45% with changes feasible within 60 years (Fig 1). The adaptations assessed in this study more than halve that risk.",Assessing dangerous climate change impacts on Australia's wheat industry,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2320268,"Assessment of historical evolution of groundwater levels is essential for understanding the anthropogenic impact on groundwater exploitation and developing response policies. In this study, regional groundwater level trend was addressed based on the regional Kendall test with correlated spatial data. With a limited number of data at one location, an exponential relation was proposed to be used to approximate covariances of a variable as a function of distances between locations. The effectiveness of the method was demonstrated using synthetic data experiments. The regional Kendall method was applied to assess evolution of groundwater levels and their annual decline rates in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei in China based on county-level data in 1959, 1984, 2005, and 2013. Results indicated that a continuing declining regional trend was shown in groundwater levels, revealing generally higher groundwater recharge rates than withdrawal rates in the study region. The annual groundwater decline rates presented a firstly increasing then decreasing regional trend, which is consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve. The earlier accelerating groundwater decline rate was attributed to supply-driven water resources management, whereas the reversed trend in accelerating groundwater decline rate in the latter period was due to many measures implemented to relieve local water stresses.",Groundwater Level Analysis Using Regional Kendall Test for Trend with Spatial Autocorrelation,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+322186,"Questions: Are there any sustainable or vulnerable habitats in which beech (Fagus crenata) forests could survive in Japan under 110 hypothetical climate change scenarios? Location: Six islands of Japan on which beech grows naturally. Methods: An ecological habitat model was used to simulate the potential habitat shifts of beech forests under 110 climate change scenarios. The amount of suitable habitat loss and gain was calculated with three migration options and risk surfaces. Vulnerable and sustainable habitats were identified to evaluate the potential risks and survival of beech forests. Results: The total areas of potential suitable habitats differed considerably depending on the future temperature and precipitation changes. Some areas on the Sea of Japan (SOJ) side showed higher probability of maintaining suitable habitats, whereas there were wider areas in which suitable habitats could not persist under any of the 110 climate change scenarios. Conclusions: The risk surfaces of the suitable habitats showed that decreases in precipitation along with increases in temperature reduced the total areas of suitable habitats. Increases in precipitation with increases in temperature of more than or equal to 2 degrees C always reduce the areas of suitable habitats. Under increased precipitation with a temperature increase of <2 degrees C, the areas of suitable habitats showed an increase, maintenance of the status quo or a decrease, depending on the size of the increase in precipitation. Beech forests in western Japan are predicted to be vulnerable to climate change, whereas some mountains on the SOJ side are predicted to be possible future refugia.",Evaluation of habitat sustainability and vulnerability for beech (Fagus crenata) forests under 110 hypothetical climatic change scenarios in Japan,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+212410,"Rapid warming of the Mediterranean Sea threatens marine biodiversity, particularly key ecosystems already stressed by other impacts such as Posidonia oceanica meadows. A 6-year monitoring of seawater temperature and annual P. oceanica shoot demography at Cabrera Archipelago National Park (Balearic Islands, Western Mediterranean) allowed us to determine if warming influenced shoot mortality and recruitment rates of seagrasses growing in relative pristine environments. The average annual maximum temperature for 2002-2006 was 1 degrees C above temperatures recorded in 1988-1999 (26.6 degrees C), two heat waves impacted the region (with seawater warming up to 28.83 degrees C in 2003 and to 28.54 degrees C in 2006) and the cumulative temperature anomaly, above the 1988-1999 mean annual maximum temperature, during the growing season (i.e. degree-days) ranged between 0 degrees C in 2002 and 70 degrees C in 2003. Median annual P. oceanica shoot mortality rates varied from 0.067 year-1 in 2002 to 0.123 year-1 in 2003, and exceeded recruitment rates in all stations and years except in shallow stations for year 2004. Interannual fluctuations in shoot recruitment were independent of seawater warming (P > 0.05). P. oceanica meadows experienced a decline throughout the study period at an average rate of -0.050 +/- 0.020 year-1. Interannual variability in P. oceanica shoot mortality was coupled (R2 > 0.40) to seawater warming variability and increasing water depth: shoot mortality rates increased by 0.022 year-1 (i.e. an additional 2% year-1) for each additional degree of annual maximum temperature and by 0.001 year-1 (i.e. 0.1% year-1) for each accumulated degree water temperature remained above 26.6 degrees C during the growing season. These results demonstrate that P. oceanica meadows are highly vulnerable to warming, which can induce steep declines in shoot abundance as well indicating that climate change poses a significant threat to this important habitat.",Mediterranean warming triggers seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) shoot mortality,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+619292,"Flood happens frequently in Lixiahe region of Jiangsu Province, China, which is caused by rainstorms, the flat terrain and bad drainage conditions. And floods tend to be more severely influenced by climate changes during recent years. The paper investigated the abnormal climate conditions which causes storm floods, analyzed the correlation between the rainstorm process and water levels, and calculated the inundated water level and area. The research indicated that the following: (1) There is a linear relationship between the cumulative runoff depth of single rainstorm with the daily average water level; (2) The flood inundated area has been greatly increased when the precipitation is greater than 20years return period in the Lixiahe region; (3) The anomalies of subtropical high intensity may cause precipitation to increase abnormally, resulting in high water level in the Lixiahe region; and the abnormal movement of subtropical ridge line position can be used as an important basis for the flood forecasting of Lixiahe region.","A study on the flood risk influenced by climate changes in the Lixiahe region, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+684694,"We aim to explore how indigenous peoples observe and ascribe meaning to change. The case study involves two Quechua-speaking farmer communities from mountainous areas near Cochabamba, Bolivia. Taking climate change as a starting point, we found that, first, farmers often associate their observations of climate change with other social and environmental changes, such as value change in the community, population growth, out-migration, urbanization, and land degradation. Second, some of the people interpret change as part of a cycle, which includes a belief in the return of some characteristics of ancient or mythological times. Third, environmental change is also perceived as the expression of ""extra-human intentionalities,"" a reaction of natural or spiritual entities that people consider living beings. On the basis of these interpretations of change and their adaptive strategies, we discuss the importance of indigenous knowledge as a component of adaptive capacity. Even in the context of living with modern science and mass media, indigenous patterns of interpreting phenomena tend to be persistent. Our results support the view that indigenous knowledge must be acknowledged as process, emphasizing ways of observing, discussing, and interpreting new information. In this case, indigenous knowledge can help address complex relationships between phenomena, and help design adaptation strategies based on experimentation and knowledge coproduction.",Perception and Interpretation of Climate Change among Quechua Farmers of Bolivia: Indigenous Knowledge as a Resource for Adaptive Capacity,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+54202,"A climate warming of 2-5 degrees C by the end of the century will impact the likelihood of seed germination of sugar maple (Acer saccharum), a dominant tree species which possesses a restricted temperature range to ensure successful reproduction. We hypothesize that seed origin affects germination due to the species' local adaptation to temperature. We tested this by experimentally investigating the effect of incubation temperature and temperature shifting on sugar maple seed germination from seven different seed sources representing the current species range. Survival analysis showed that seeds from the northern range had the highest germination percentage, while the southern range had the lowest. The mean germination percentage under constant temperatures was best when temperatures were <= 5 degrees C, whereas germination percentages plummeted at temperatures >= 11 degrees C (5.8%). Cool shifting increased germination by 19.1% over constant temperature treatments and by 29.3% over warm shifting treatments. Both shifting treatments caused earlier germination relative to the constant temperature treatments. A climate warming of up to +5 degrees C is shown to severely reduce germination of seeds from the southern range. However, under a more pronounced warming of 7 degrees C, seed germination at the northern range become more affected and now comparable to those found from the southern range. This study states that the high seed germination percentage found in sugar maple at the northern range makes it fairly resilient to the warmest projected temperature increase for the next century. These findings provide forest managers with the necessary information to make accurate projections when considering strategies for future regeneration while also considering climate warming.",Assessing tree germination resilience to global warming: a manipulative experiment using sugar maple (Acer saccharum),1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2361384,"Plant community resilience in frequent-fire forests of western North America has been compromised by over a century of fire exclusion. However, there are several western National Parks where fires have been reintroduced over the past several decades, including Zion National Park in southwest Utah. Here we reconstruct historical components of fire regimes in ponderosa pine dominated forests at Zion and compare these to recent fire frequency, current plant community and fuels structure, and potential fire behavior. Historical fires burned every 9-10 years on average up until 1879, when fires ceased contemporaneous with introduction of Euro-American livestock grazing and timber harvest in upland forests. Abundant tree regeneration occurred after fire exclusion, with tree density averaging 45 trees ha(-1) in reconstructed 1880 forests versus 106 trees ha(-1) today. Intervals between recent (since 1988) wildfires and prescribed fires in these same stands ranged from 7 to 13 years, similar to historical fire timing. Depending on whether plots had burned from zero to three times in recent fires, we found significant differences in canopy base heights (increased), duff and litter depths (decreased), and percent cover of grass and forbs (increased), but not tree density, tree basal area, shrub height, shrub cover, or woody fuels. Combined effects of recent fires on overstory and understory structure resulted in a significant difference in likelihood of crown fire occurrence, declining from a mean of 58% in plots with no fire since 1879 to 13% in plots with three fires since 1988. Significant effects were generally seen after two or three fires, suggesting it is the reintroduction of the fire regime and not just individual fire events that restore resiliency. Overall, effects of recent fires are building on the latent resiliency of ponderosa pine forests at Zion National Park, although questions remain about extent and future dynamics of oak and manzanita shrubfields that occupy similar environmental settings, along with a general lack of ponderosa pine regeneration across all plots.","Historical and current fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests at Zion National Park, Utah: Restoration of pattern and process after a century of fire exclusion",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+61295,"The northern Great Plains (NGP) of the United States has been a hotspot of West Nile virus (WNV) incidence since 2002. Mosquito ecology and the transmission of vector-borne disease are influenced by multiple environmental factors, and climatic variability is an important driver of inter-annual variation in WNV transmission risk. This study applied multiple environmental predictors including land surface temperature (LST), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) derived from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products to establish prediction models for WNV risk in the NGP. These environmental metrics are sensitive to seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, and are hypothesized to influence mosquito population dynamics and WNV transmission. Non-linear generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to evaluate the influences of deviations of cumulative LST, NDVI, and ETa on inter-annual variations of WNV incidence from 2004-2010. The models were sensitive to the timing of spring green up (measured with NDVI), temperature variability in early spring and summer (measured with LST), and moisture availability from late spring through early summer (measured with ETa), highlighting seasonal changes in the influences of climatic fluctuations on WNV transmission. Predictions based on these variables indicated a low WNV risk across the NGP in 2011, which is concordant with the low case reports in this year. Environmental monitoring using remote-sensed data can contribute to surveillance of WNV risk and prediction of future WNV outbreaks in space and time.",Remote Sensing of Climatic Anomalies and West Nile Virus Incidence in the Northern Great Plains of the United States,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1304995,"The effects of climate change are causing more frequent extreme rainfall events and an increased risk of flooding in developed areas. Quantifying this increased risk is of critical importance for the protection of life and property as well as for infrastructure planning and design. The updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships and temporal patterns are widely used in hydrologic and hydraulic modeling for design and planning in the United States. Current literature shows that rising temperatures as a result of climate change will result in an intensification of rainfall. These impacts are not explicitly included in the NOAA temporal patterns, which can have consequences on the design and planning of adaptation and flood mitigation measures. In addition there is a lack of detailed hydraulic modeling when assessing climate change impacts on flooding. The study presented in this paper uses a comprehensive hydrologic and hydraulic model of a fully developed urban/suburban catchment to explore two primary questions related to climate change impacts on flood risk. (1) How do climate change effects on storm temporal patterns and rainfall volumes impact flooding in a developed complex watershed? (2) Is the storm temporal pattern as critical as the total volume of rainfall when evaluating urban flood risk? We use the NOAA Atlas 14 temporal patterns, along with the expected increase in temperature for the RCP8.5 scenario for 2081-2100, to project temporal patterns and rainfall volumes to reflect future climatic change. The model results show that different rainfall patterns cause variability in flood depths during a storm event. The changes in the projected temporal patterns alone increase the risk of flood magnitude up to 35 %, with the cumulative impacts of temperature rise on temporal patterns and the storm volume increasing flood risk from 10 to 170 %. The results also show that regional storage facilities are sensitive to rainfall patterns that are loaded in the latter part of the storm duration, while extremely intense short-duration storms will cause flooding at all locations. This study shows that changes in temporal patterns will have a significant impact on urban/suburban flooding and need to be carefully considered and adjusted to account for climate change when used for the design and planning of future storm water systems.",Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed - the role of storm temporal patterns,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1339629,"Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models indicate that warming of up to 3degreesC may occur over the next century in waters immediately to the north of the Amery Ice Shelf. The impact of this warming on the ocean cavity under the Amery Ice Shelf and the mass exchange at the interface between the ocean cavity and the ice shelf is investigated using a three-dimensional ocean model. Warming of between 0.25degrees and 3.0degreesC is applied along the ice front in a series of model runs, rather than in a single transient run. Changes in salinity are also considered for larger amounts of warming. The model results show that the circulation in the ocean cavity changes as warming increases, particularly in the gyres that dominate the horizontal circulation. The changes in the heat flux from the warming increase the melt rates from the base of the Amery Ice Shelf, from the present-day mean melt rate and net mass loss estimates of 0.28 m yr(-1) and 14.2 Gt yr(-1), respectively, by approximately 0.55 m yr(-1) degreesC(-1) and 28.4 Gt yr(-1)degreesC(-1). The maximum melt rates increase much more strongly, by around 10 m yr(-1)degreesC(-1). These increased rates of melting suggest substantial modification of the ice shelf would occur in a warmer climate, particularly near the grounding line, and thus indicate that warming of the oceans around Antarctica has the potential for significant impact on the Antarctic ice sheet.","Sensitivity of the Amery Ice Shelf, Antarctica, to changes in the climate of the Southern Ocean",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+435215,"Aim We developed a model enabling us to evaluate the contribution of both natural and human-related factors to butterfly species richness in Catalonia, a Mediterranean area that harbours one of the most diverse butterfly faunas in Europe. Location The study was carried out in Catalonia (north-east Iberian Peninsula), a region of 31,930 km(2) lying between the Pyrenees, the Ebro depression and the Mediterranean sea. Methods Data from the Catalan Butterfly Monitoring Scheme were used to assess butterfly species richness from 55 transects spread all over the region. Three groups of environmental variables likely to affect the presence of butterfly species were calculated, above all from geographic information system data: (1) climatology and topography, (2) vegetation structure and (3) human disturbance. Because climatic and topographic variables are expected to be strongly correlated, we first performed a principal component analysis (PCA) to create a summarizing factor that would account for most of the variance within this set of variables. Subsequently, a backward stepwise multiple regression was performed in order to assess the effects of environmental factors on butterfly species richness. Results A total of 131 species were detected in the monitoring transects, representing 75.7% of the butterfly fauna known from Catalonia. Mean species richness per transect and per year was 41.4, although values varied greatly among sites (range: 14-76.8). The final regression model explained more than 80% of the total variance, which indicated a strong association between butterfly species richness and the studied environmental factors. The model revealed the very important contribution of climatic and topographic variables, which were combined into a single factor in the PCA. In contrast to what has been found in other, more northerly countries, species richness was negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with rainfall, except for extreme cold and wet conditions. This may be a consequence of the predictably adverse effects of the Mediterranean summer drought on herbivorous insects, and the fact that the limits of distribution of many butterflies correlate well with climatic variables. Human disturbance (defined as the proportion of urban and agricultural landscape cover in buffer areas of 5 km around the transect sites) was the second most important predictor for species richness. We found that a significant decrease in species numbers was associated with an increase in human pressure, a finding that indicates that not only building development, but also modern-day agricultural practices are detrimental to the conservation of Mediterranean butterflies. Surprisingly, vegetation variables had an almost negligible effect on butterfly species richness. Main conclusions Our findings strongly indicate that the current motors of global change will have a negative effect on Mediterranean butterfly assemblages. First, changes in land-use are transforming and fragmenting the landscape into an inhospitable and less permeable matrix for butterflies. Secondly, the negative correlation between species richness and temperature will lead to a predictable loss of diversity over the coming years, as predicted in the most plausible scenarios of climate change. Considering the high butterfly richness characterizing the Mediterranean Basin, this future trend will pose a serious threat to biodiversity.",Butterfly species richness in the north-west Mediterranean Basin: the role of natural and human-induced factors,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+674511,"Deciduous shrubs are expected to rapidly expand in the Arctic during the coming decades due to climate warming. A transition towards more shrub-dominated tundra may have large implications for the regional surface energy balance, permafrost stability and carbon storage capacity, with consequences for the global climate system. However, little information is available on the natural long-term shrub growth response to climatic variability. Our aim was to determine the climate factor and time period that are most important to annual shrub growth in our research site in NE-Siberia. Therefore, we determined annual radial growth rates in Salix pulchra and Betula nana shrubs by measuring ring widths. We constructed shrub ring width chronologies and compared growth rates to regional climate and remotely sensed greenness data. Early summer temperature was the most important factor influencing ring width of S. pulchra (Pearson's r = 0.73, p < 0.001) and B. nana (Pearson's r = 0.46, p < 0.001). No effect of winter precipitation on shrub growth was observed. In contrast, summer precipitation of the previous year correlated positively with B. nana ring width (Pearson's r = 0.42, p < 0.01), suggesting that wet summers facilitate shrub growth in the following growing season. S. pulchra ring width correlated positively with peak summer NDVI, despite the small coverage of S. pulchra shrubs (<5% surface cover) in our research area. We provide the first climate-growth study on shrubs for Northeast Siberia, the largest tundra region in the world. We show that two deciduous shrub species with markedly different growth forms have a similar growth response to changes in climate. The obtained shrub growth response to climate variability in the past increases our understanding of the mechanisms underlying current shrub expansion, which is required to predict future climate-driven tundra vegetation shifts.",What are the main climate drivers for shrub growth in Northeastern Siberian tundra?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1888351,"The authors explore the uncertainty implied in the estimation of changes in flood frequency due to climate change at the basins of the Cedar River and Skunk River in Iowa, United States. The study focuses on the influence of climate change on the 100-year flood, used broadly as a reference flow for civil engineering design. Downscaled rainfall projections between 1960-2099 were used as forcing into a hydrological model for producing discharge projections at locations intersecting vulnerable transportation infrastructure. The annual maxima of the discharge projections were used to conduct flood frequency analyses over the periods 1960-2009 and 1960-2099. The analysis of the period 1960-2009 is a good predictor of the observed flood values for return periods between 2 and 200 years in the studied basins. The findings show that projected flood values could increase significantly in both basins. Between 2009 and 2099, 100-year flood could increase between 47% and 52% in Cedar River, and between 25% and 34% in South Skunk River. The study supports a recommendation for assessing vulnerability of infrastructure to climate change, and implementation of better resiliency and hydraulic design practices. It is recommended that engineers update existing design standards to account for climate change by using the upper-limit confidence interval of the flood frequency analyses that are currently in place.",Assessment of Changes in Flood Frequency Due to the Effects of Climate Change: Implications for Engineering Design,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+580369,"A sudden and sharp rise in the C-14 content of the atmosphere, which occurred between ca. 850 and 760 calendar yr BC (ca. 2750-2450 BP on the radiocarbon time-scale), was contemporaneous with an abrupt climate change. In northwest Europe (as indicated by palaeoecological and geological evidence) climate changed from relatively warm and continental to oceanic. As a consequence, the ground-water table rose considerably in certain low-lying areas in The Netherlands. Archaeological and palaeoecological evidence for the abandonment of such areas in the northern Netherlands is interpreted as the effect of a rise of the water table and the extension of fens and bogs. Contraction of population and finally migration from these low-lying areas, which had become marginal for occupation, and the earliest colonisation by farming communities of the newly emerged salt marshes in the northern Netherlands around 2550 BP, is interpreted as the consequence of loss of cultivated land. Thermic contraction of ocean water and/or decreased velocity and pressure on the coast by the Gulf Stream may have caused a fall in relative sea-level rise and the emergence of these salt marshes. Evidence for a synchronous climatic change elsewhere in Europe and on other continents around 2650 BP is presented. Temporary aridity in tropical regions and a reduced transport of warmth to the temperate climate regions by atmospheric and/or oceanic circulation systems could explain the observed changes. As yet there is no clear explanation for this climate change and the contemporaneous increase of C-14 in the atmosphere. The strategy of C-14 wiggle-match dating can play an important role in the precise dating of organic deposits, and can be used to establish possible relationships between changing C-14 production in the atmosphere, climate change, and the impact of such changes on hydrology, vegetation, and human communities.","Archaeological and palaeoecological indications of an abrupt climate change in The Netherlands, and evidence for climatological teleconnections around 2650 BP",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1283949,"Heat waves and drought periods are expected to become more frequent due to climate change. This may cause a critical decline in future crop yields. However, insufficient knowledge of the interactive effects of high temperature and drought stress at specific growth stages is the cause of numerous uncertainties in modeling impacts of climate change on field crop growth and yield. Hence, the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of interactions between the short-term exposure (3 and 7 days) of two winter wheat genotypes to elevated temperature and drought stress on yield formation and photosynthetic parameters. Winter wheat plants grown under ambient conditions were subjected to four temperature regimes (with maxima at 26, 32, 35 and 38 degrees C) and drought in growth chambers at three critical growth stages (beginning of stem elongation - DC 31, beginning of anthesis DC 61, and medium milk ripe - DC 75). The response of yield formation parameters was obviously modulated by variety and growth stage. Grain number was more affected by drought at DC 31 and by the temperature at - DC 61. Grain weight per spike was reduced by drought stress similarly at all growth stages, but the results indicated the increasing sensitivity of this parameter to a temperature at the later growth stage. Although yield parameters only changed slightly with the length of heat and drought stress, the photosynthetic parameters were strongly affected, particularly by longer drought and the interactive effect of high temperature and drought stress. Higher temperature significantly increased the negative impact of drought on CO2 assimilation rate. Photosynthetic parameters were less affected by combined high temperatures and drought stress at DC 61 as compared to other growth stages investigated. The larger effect at the later growth stage (DC 75) can be attributed to induced senescence, among other factors, particularly in the Bohemia variety. The Tobak variety appears to be more tolerant to combined high temperatures and drought stress in terms of photosynthetic parameters. Based on the relationships between heat degree-days (HDD) and grain weight per spike we demonstrated the potential of HDD to integrate length and intensity of heat stress at different growth stages, particularly for estimation effects on yield parameters. It can be summarized that although the short-term combination of high temperatures and drought causes significant reductions in photosynthetic parameters, the impact on yield formation is much lower, indicating fast recovery of photosynthetic processes and compensation in yield formation parameters.","Interactive effects of high temperature and drought stress during stem elongation, anthesis and early grain filling on the yield formation and photosynthesis of winter wheat",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+672936,"Climate change is inducing changes in the phenological timings of organisms. Genetic diversity could influence phenological responses to climate change, but empirical evidence is very limited. We estimated the regional variation across Japan in flowering and leaf budburst dates of plants based on a dataset of phenological timings from 1953 to 2005. The observed plants' genetic diversities varied according to human cultivation. The within-species variations of phenological response to temperature as well as regional variations were less in the plant populations with lower genetic diversity. Thus, genetic diversity influences the variation in phenological responses of plant populations. Under increased temperatures, low variation in phenological responses may allow drastic changes in the phenology of plant populations with synchronized phenological timings. Our findings indicate that we should pay attention to maintaining genetic diversity of populations to alleviate changes in phenology due to future climate change.",Genetic diversity increases regional variation in phenological dates in response to climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1288806,"The response of radial growth to climate and the climate sensitivity of tree growth at different ages in different drought conditions are essential for predicting forest dynamics and making correct forest management policies. In this study, we analyzed the growth responsiveness of Picea crassifolia Kom. to climate and explored the relationship between age and climate sensitivity of radial growth at the individual tree scale in the wetter eastern area and drier western area of the Qilian Mountains. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between the chronology of each tree and climatic factors to examine the climate-growth relationships. Linear fitting, quadratic polynomial fitting and exponential fitting were used to test the relationships between age and mean sensitivity, standard deviation and radial growth's response to climate. Trees in the wetter eastern area showed a weaker response to climate than those in the drier western area and were significantly correlated with precipitation and mean temperature in the previous and current mid-late summer. Trees in the drier western area were mainly limited by precipitation of the previous August, the current May and June, as well as limited by temperature in the previous and current early-middle summer. In the wetter area, the younger trees were more sensitive to both precipitation and temperature than the older trees. In the drier area, younger/older trees showed a stronger sensitivity to precipitation in the current August and September/May, whereas trees 120-140 years old showed a stronger correlation with temperature factors in the summer. It was determined that mature trees in the drier area were more strongly influenced by the climate, especially in the context of increasing temperature. These trees should be paid special attention in forest management.","Relationships between Tree Age and Climate Sensitivity of Radial Growth in Different Drought Conditions of Qilian Mountains, Northwestern China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+462215,"Changes in water temperature can have important consequences for aquatic ecosystems, with some species being sensitive even to small shifts in temperature during some or all of their life cycle. While many studies report increasing regional and global air temperatures, evidence of changes in river water temperature has, thus far, been site specific and often from sites heavily influenced by human activities that themselves could lead to warming. Here we present a tiered assessment of changing river water temperature covering England and Wales with data from 2773 locations. We use novel statistical approaches to detect trends in irregularly sampled spot measurements taken between 1990 and 2006. During this 17-year period, on average, mean water temperature increased by 0.03 degrees C per year (+/- 0.002 degrees C), and positive changes in water temperature were observed at 2385 (86%) sites. Examination of catchments where there has been limited human influence on hydrological response shows that changes in river flow have had little influence on these water temperature trends. In the absence of other systematic influences on water temperature, it is inferred that anthropogenically driven climate change is driving some of this trend in water temperature. (C) 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.",Detecting changing river temperatures in England and Wales,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1461524,"The survival rate of mosquitoes is an important topic that affects many aspects of decision-making in mosquito management. This study aims to estimate the variability in the survival rate of Ae. aegypti, and climate factors that are related to such variability. It is generally assumed that the daily probability of mosquito survival is independent of natural environment conditions and age. To test this assumption, a three-year fieldwork (20052007) and experimental study was conducted at Fortaleza-CE in Brazil with the aim of estimating daily survival rates of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti under natural conditions in an urban city. Survival rates of mosquitoes may be age-dependent and statistical analysis is a sensitive approach for comparing patterns of mosquito survival. We studied whether weather conditions occurring on a particular day influence the mortality observed on that particular day. We therefore focused on the impact of daily meteorological fluctuations around a given climate average, rather than on the influence of climate itself. With regard to survival time, multivariate analyses using the stepwise logistic regression model, adjusted for daily temperature, relative humidity, and saturated vapor pressure deficit (SVPD), suggest that age, the seasonal factor, and the SVPD were the most dependent mortality factors. Similar results were obtained using the Cox proportional hazard model, which explores the relationships between the survival and explanatory variables.",A case study of the influence of local weather on Aedes aegypti (L.) aging and mortality,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+429760,"Background: Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Conclusions/Significance: Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change.",Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+76233,"Temperature is increasing at unprecedented rates across most of the tundra biome(1). Remote-sensing data indicate that contemporary climate warming has already resulted in increased productivity over much of the Arctic(2,3), but plot-based evidence for vegetation transformation is not widespread. We analysed change in tundra vegetation surveyed between 1980 and 2010 in 158 plant communities spread across 46 locations. We found biome-wide trends of increased height of the plant canopy and maximum observed plant height for most vascular growth forms; increased abundance of litter; increased abundance of evergreen, low-growing and tall shrubs; and decreased abundance of bare ground. Intersite comparisons indicated an association between the degree of summer warming and change in vascular plant abundance, with shrubs, forbs and rushes increasing with warming. However, the association was dependent on the climate zone, the moisture regime and the presence of permafrost. Our data provide plot-scale evidence linking changes in vascular plant abundance to local summer warming in widely dispersed tundra locations across the globe.",Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+571784,"The rainfed rice-growing environment is perhaps one of the most vulnerable to water stress such as drought and floods. It is important to determine the spatial extent of the stress-prone areas to effectively and efficiently promote proper technologies (e.g., stress-tolerant varieties) to tackle the problem of sustainable food production. This study was conducted in Odisha state located in eastern India. Odisha is predominantly a rainfed rice ecosystem (71% rainfed and 29% canal irrigated during kharif-monsoon season), where rice is the major crop and staple food of the people. However, rice productivity in Odisha is one of the lowest in India and a significant decline (9%) in rice cultivated area was observed in 2002 (a drought year). The present study analyzed the temporal rice cropping pattern in various ecosystems and identified the stress-prone areas due to submergence (flooding) and water shortage. The spatial distribution of rice areas was mapped using MODIS (MOD09Q1) 250-m 8-day time-series data (2000 -2010) and spectral matching techniques. The mapped rice areas were strongly correlated (R-2 = 90%) with district-level statistics. Also the class accuracy based on field-plot data was 84.8%. The area under the rainfed rice ecosystem continues to dominate, recording the largest share among rice classes across all the years. The use of remote-sensing techniques is rapid, cost-effective, and reliable to monitor changes in rice cultivated area over long periods of time and estimate the reduction in area cultivated due to abiotic stress such as water stress and submergence. Agricultural research institutes and line departments in the government can use these techniques for better planning, regular monitoring of land-use changes, and dissemination of appropriate technologies. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Remote sensing based change analysis of rice environments in Odisha, India",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+286223,"In the UK, recent mean temperatures have consistently increased by between 1 degrees C and 4 degrees C compared to the 30-year monthly averages. Furthermore, all available predictive models for the UK indicate that the climate is likely to change further and feature more extreme weather events and a trend towards wetter, milder winters and hotter drier summers. These changes will alter the prevalence of endemic diseases spatially and/or temporally and impact on animal health and welfare. Most notable among these endemic parasites are the helminths, which have been shown to be very strongly influenced by both the short-term weather and climate through effects on their free-living larval stages on pasture. In this review, we examine recent trends in prevalence and epidemiology of key helminth species and consider whether these could be climate-related. We identify likely effects of temperature and rainfall on the free-living stages and some key parasite traits likely to determine parasite abundance under changed climatic conditions. We find clear evidence that climate change, especially elevated temperature, has already changed the overall abundance, seasonality and spatial spread of endemic helminths in the UK. We explore some confounders and alternative explanations for the observed patterns. Finally, we explore the implications of these findings for policy makers and the livestock industry and make some recommendations for future research priorities.",Climate change and infectious disease: helminthological challenges to farmed ruminants in temperate regions,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1311962,"As part of the Lofote Cyclone experiment (Lofoten Zyklonen Experiment) 21 drift buoys were deployed in a 700 km x 400 km area of the Norwegian Sea situated to the west of the Lofote Islands. The buoys measured sea-level pressure (SLP), surface air temperature (SAT), and sea surface temperature (SST) at hourly intervals for a 6-month period from March to August 2005. This unique data set is used to validate the operational model analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the German Weather Service [Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)]. Comparisons were performed in both time and space. Generally, biases are small and amount to 0.2 hPa for SLP and -0.2 K for SAT. Temporal correlations are higher than 0.99 for SLP and 0.93 for SAT. Spatial correlations as a measure of pattern coincidence are lower then for temporal correlations, but still amount to values higher than 0.97 for SLP and 0.76 for SAT on average. SST, which is externally prescribed and not a model variable, shows surprisingly large and persistent errors of up to 6 K for latitudes above 76N. This points towards basic errors in the SST source for both models. Taking all comparisons (SLP, SAT, and SST) together, agreement is slightly worse for DWD than for ECMWF.",Validation of ECMWF and DWD model analyses with buoy measurements over the Norwegian Sea,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1378166,"The cultivar-dependent differences in Brassica napus L. seed yield are significantly affected by drought stress. Here, the response of leaf proteome to long-term drought (28 days) was studied in cultivars (cvs): Californium (C), Cadeli (D), Navajo (N), and Viking (V). Analysis of twenty-four 2-D DICE gels revealed 134 spots quantitatively changed at least 2-fold; from these, 79 proteins were significantly identified by MALDI-TOFTOF. According to the differences in water use, the cultivars may be assigned to two categories: water-savers or water-spenders. In the water-savers group (cvs C + D), proteins related to nitrogen assimilation, ATP and redox homeostasis were increased under stress, while in the water-spenders category (cvs N + V), carbohydrate/energy, photosynthesis, stress related and rRNA processing proteins were increased upon stress. Taking all data together, we indicated cv C as a drought-adaptable water-saver, cv D as a medium-adaptable water-saver, cv N as a drought-adaptable water-spender, and cv V as a low-adaptable drought sensitive water-spender rapeseed. Proteomic data help to evaluate the impact of drought and the extent of genotype-based adaptability and contribute to the understanding of their plasticity. These results provide new insights into the provenience-based drought acclimation/adaptation strategy of contrasting winter rapeseeds and link data at gasometric, biochemical, and proteome level. Significance: Soil moisture deficit is a real problem for every crop. The data in this study demonstrates for the first time that in stem-prolongation phase cultivars respond to progressive drought in different ways and at different levels. Analysis of physiological and proteomic data showed two different water regime-related strategies: water-savers and spenders. However, not only water uptake rate itself, but also individual protein abundances, gasometric and biochemical parameters together with final biomass accumulation after stress explained genotype-based responses. Interestingly, under a mixed climate profile, both water-use patterns (savers or spenders) can be appropriate for drought adaptation. These data suggest, than complete ""acclimation image"" of rapeseeds in stem-prolongation phase under drought could be reached only if these characteristics are taken, explained and understood together. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Proteomic and physiological approach reveals drought-induced changes in rapeseeds: Water-saver and water-spender strategy,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+723356,"The objective of the study was to examine whether cold climate is associated with poorer health in diverse Arctic populations. With climate change increasingly affecting the Arctic, the association between climate and population health status is of public health significance. The mean January and July temperatures were determined for 27 Arctic regions based on weather station data for the period 1961-1990 and their association with a variety of health outcomes assessed by correlation and multiple linear regression analyses. Mean January temperature was inversely associated with infant and perinatal mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate from respiratory diseases, and age-specific fertility rate for teens and directly associated with life expectancy at birth in both males and females, independent of a variety of socioeconomic, demographic, and health care factors. Mean July temperature was also associated with infant mortality and mortality from respiratory diseases, and with total fertility rate. For every 10 degrees C increase in mean January temperature, the life expectancy at birth among males increased by about 6 years and infant mortality rate decreased by about 4 deaths/1,000 livebirths. Cold climate is significantly associated with higher mortality and fertility in Arctic populations and should be recognized in public health planning. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 22:129-133, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.",The Health of Arctic Populations: Does Cold Matter?,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3787732,"Precipitation is all important environmental parameter which affects the hydrology of the land surface, coastal processes, terrain stability, and climate and global heat circulation. Understanding rainfall distribution and intensity call improve protection of environmental and human resources, and knowledge of geophysical process of land, ocean and atmosphere. Rain measurements have been historically verified using traditional rain-gauges in high detail or microwave radars that cover vast areas. Nevertheless, in order to develop more accurate rainfall forecast algorithms and validate them, the drop size distribution (DSD) of rainfall events need to be studied. Using measurements from NASA TRMM satellite and rain gauges, the raindrop size distribution will be studied and used ill analyzing disdrometer rain retrieval. The comparison took place on September 15th to 17th, 2004 in San Juan, Puerto Rico; when the tropical storm Jeanne passed by the island of Puerto Rico, in the Caribbean. Only 4 out of 21 locations worldwide where 2DVDs have been deployed in the past are in the tropics therefore we expect this work to provide further insight into the rainfall statistics of tropical regions.","Rain-rate estimate algorithm evaluation and rainfall characterization in tropical environments using 2DVD, rain gauges and TRMM data",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+244995,"This study employed a Ricardian model to measure the impact of climate change on South Africa's field crops and analysed potential future impacts of further changes in the climate. A regression of farm net revenue on climate, soil and other socioeconomic variables was conducted to capture farmer-adapted responses to climate variations. The analysis was based on agricultural data for seven field crops (maize, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, groundnut, sunflower and soybean), climate and edaphic data across 300 districts in South Africa. Results indicate that production of field crops was sensitive to marginal changes in temperature as compared to changes in precipitation. Temperature rise positively affects net revenue whereas the effect of reduction in rainfall is negative. The study also highlights the importance of season and location in dealing with climate change showing that the spatial distribution of climate change impact and consequently needed adaptations will not be uniform across the different agro-ecological regions of South Africa. Results of simulations of climate change scenarios indicate many impacts that would induce (or require) very distinct shifts in farming practices and patterns in different regions. Those include major shifts in crop calendars and growing seasons, switching between crops to the possibility of complete disappearance of some field crops from some region. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Measuring the economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: a Ricardian approach,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+465680,"Climate change-related disturbances are increasingly recognized as critical threats to biodiversity and species abundance. On coral reefs, climate disturbances have known consequences for reef fishes, but it is often difficult to isolate the effect of coral bleaching from preceding or simultaneous disturbances such as fishing, pollution, and habitat loss. In this study, pre-bleaching surveys of fish family assemblages in the remote Phoenix Islands in 2002 are compared to post-bleaching in 2005, following severe thermal stress. Post-bleaching, total coral cover decreased substantially, as did the combined abundance of all fish families. Yet, changes in abundance for specific fish families were not uniform, and varied greatly from site to site. Of the 13 fish families examined, 3 exhibited significant changes in abundance from 2002 to 2005, regardless of site (Carangidae, Chaetodontidae, and serranid subfamily Epinephelinae). For these families, we explored whether changes in abundance were related to island type (island vs atoll) and/or declining coral cover (percent change). Carangidae on islands experienced larger changes in abundance than those on atolls, though declines in abundance over time were not associated with changes in live coral cover. In contrast, for Chaetodontidae, declines in abundance over time were most dramatic on atolls, and were also associated with changes in live coral cover. The remoteness of the Phoenix Islands excludes many typical local anthropogenic stressors as drivers of short-term changes; observed changes are instead more likely attributed to natural variation in fish populations, or associated with coral loss following the 2002-2003 major thermal stress event.",Short-term changes of fish assemblages observed in the near-pristine reefs of the Phoenix Islands,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1627337,"Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are losing large amounts of water to the world's oceans. However, estimates of their contribution to sea level rise disagree. We provide a consensus estimate by standardizing existing, and creating new, mass-budget estimates from satellite gravimetry and altimetry and from local glaciological records. In many regions, local measurements are more negative than satellite-based estimates. All regions lost mass during 2003-2009, with the largest losses from Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia, but there was little loss from glaciers in Antarctica. Over this period, the global mass budget was -259 +/- 28 gigatons per year, equivalent to the combined loss from both ice sheets and accounting for 29 +/- 13% of the observed sea level rise.",A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+94067,"European continental shelf seas have experienced intense warming over the past 30 years(1). In the North Sea, fish have been comprehensively monitored throughout this period and resulting data provide a unique record of changes in distribution and abundance in response to climate change(2,3). We use these data to demonstrate the remarkable power of generalized additive models (GAMs), trained on data earlier in the time series, to reliably predict trends in distribution and abundance in later years. Then, challenging process-based models that predict substantial and ongoing poleward shifts of cold-water species(4,5), we find that GAMs coupled with climate projections predict future distributions of demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish species over the next 50 years will be strongly constrained by availability of habitat of suitable depth. This will lead to pronounced changes in community structure, species interactions and commercial fisheries, unless individual acclimation or population-level evolutionary adaptations enable fish to tolerate warmer conditions or move to previously uninhabitable locations.",Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+509073,"A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.",Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+105531,"To disentangle complex drivers of Myricaria elegans growth in arid Himalaya, we combined tree-ring analysis with detailed dendrometer records. We found that the combination of winter frost, summer floods, and strong summer diurnal temperature fluctuations control annual and intra-annual growth dynamics. The relative importance of these drivers is, however, changing with ongoing climate change. High-mountain areas are among the most sensitive environments to climate change. Understanding how different organisms cope with ongoing climate change is now a major topic in the ecology of cold environments. Here, we investigate climate drivers of the annual and intra-annual growth dynamics of Myricaria elegans, a 3-6 m tall tree/shrub, in a high-elevation cold desert in Ladakh, a rapidly warming region in the NW Himalayas. As Myricaria forms narrow stands around glacier streams surrounded by the desert, we hypothesized that its growth between 3800 and 4100 m will be primarily limited by low temperatures and summer floods. We found that warmer and less snowy conditions in April and May enhance earlywood production. Latewood formation is mostly driven by the June-July temperatures (T). The positive effect of warmer summers on both annual and intra-annual growth is related to fluctuating daily T (from +30 to 0 A degrees C). In particular, dendrometer measurements over a 2-year period showed that net daily growth increments increased when the summer night T remained above 6 A degrees C. While high night T during generally cold desert nights promoted growth, high daytime T caused water stress and growth inhibition. The growth-temperature dependency has gradually weakened due to accelerated warming since the 1990s. In addition, positive latewood responses to high March precipitation during the colder 1960s-1980s have become negative during the warmer 1990s-2000s, reflecting an intensification of summer floods. Latewood width increased while earlywood width decreased from the 1990s, indicating a prolonged growing season and a higher risk of drought-induced embolism in earlywood vessels. Due to a multiplicity of environmental drivers including winter frost, intensified floods and strong summer diurnal T fluctuations, Myricaria growth is not controlled by a single climate parameter. Similar results are increasingly reported from other Himalayan treelines, showing that ongoing climate change will trigger complex and probably spatially variable responses in tree growth. Our study showed that these complex climatic signals can be disentangled by a combination of long-term data from tree-rings with detailed, but short-term, records from dendrometers.",Annual and intra-annual growth dynamics of Myricaria elegans shrubs in arid Himalaya,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+658888,"One of the predicted biological responses to climate warming is the upslope displacement of species distributions. In the tropics, because montane assemblages frequently include local endemics that are distributed close to summits, these species may be especially vulnerable to experiencing complete habitat loss from warming. However, there is currently a dearth of information available for tropical regions. Here, we present a preliminary appraisal of this extinction threat using the herpetological assemblage of the Tsaratanana Massif in northern Madagascar (the island's highest massif), which is rich with montane endemism. We present meteorological evidence (individual and combined regional weather station data and reanalysis forecast data) for recent warming in Madagascar, and show that this trend is consistent with recent climate model simulations. Using standard moist adiabatic lapse rates, these observed meteorological warming trends in northern Madagascar predict upslope species displacement of 17-74 m per decade between 1993 and 2003. Over this same period, we also report preliminary data supporting a trend for upslope distribution movements, based on two surveys we completed at Tsaratanana. For 30 species, representing five families of reptiles and amphibians, we found overall mean shifts in elevational midpoint of 19-51 m upslope (mean lower elevation limit 29-114 m; mean upper elevation limit -8 to 53 m). We also found upslope trends in mean and median elevational observations in seven and six of nine species analysed. Phenological differences between these surveys do not appear to be substantial, but these upslope shifts are consistent with the predictions based on meteorological warming. An elevational range displacement analysis projects complete habitat loss for three species below the 2 degrees C 'dangerous' warming threshold. One of these species is not contracting its distribution, but the other two were not resampled in 2003. A preliminary review of the other massifs in Madagascar indicates potential similar vulnerability to habitat loss and upslope extinction. Consequently, we urgently recommend additional elevational surveys for these and other tropical montane assemblages, which should also include, when possible, the monitoring of local meteorological conditions and habitat change.",Extinction vulnerability of tropical montane endemism from warming and upslope displacement: a preliminary appraisal for the highest massif in Madagascar,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+620961,"The warming of the planet in recent decades has caused rapid, widespread permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. These changes may significantly affect soil moisture content and nutrient supply, thereby affecting ecosystem structure and function. This study aimed to describe the dynamic changes in thaw depth, assess the relationship between thaw depth and soil moisture content, and analyze the changes in species composition and water-use efficiency in response to permafrost degradation. We surveyed species composition, thaw depth, ground temperature, soil moisture, nutrient content, and foliar stable carbon isotope compositions to gain insights into the response of alpine grassland ecosystems to permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Moisture content of the surface layer decreased with increasing thaw depth. The correlation between thaw depth and surface soil moisture content was strongest in June and decreased in July and August. The strongest correlation occurred at a depth of 20 cm to 30 cm. The dominant species shifted from Cyperaceae in alpine meadow to mesoxerophytes in alpine steppe before finally shifting to xerophytes in alpine desert steppe. Thaw depth correlation was significantly negative with organic C content (r = -0.49, P < 0.05) and with total N content (r = -0.62, P < 0.01). The leaf delta C-13 of Carex moorcroftii increased with increasing thaw depth and followed a linear relationship (R (2) = 0.85, P = 0.008). Permafrost degradation decreases surface soil moisture and soil nutrient supply capacity. Increasing permafrost degradation decreases the number of plant families and species, with hygrophytes and mesophytes gradually replaced by mesoxerophytes and xerophytes. The water-use efficiency of plants improved in response to increasing water stress as surface layers dried during permafrost degradation. Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is expected to further degrade as global warming worsens. Therefore, more attention should be dedicated to the response of alpine ecosystems during permafrost degradation.",Linking thaw depth with soil moisture and plant community composition: effects of permafrost degradation on alpine ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+3236122,"Aboriginal communities of Northeast (NE) India remained in isolation from the mainland and lived in a distinct cultural milieu with the environment. Due to the high degree of exposure and better insight of ground realities, they may have rich traditional knowledge of perception, prediction, and adaptation to climate change. We accessed and illustrated the traditional knowledge on fish and fisheries from the region through participatory rural appraisal (PRA). Our study revealed that ecological and climatic circumstances are maintained through the traditional system of governance and local self-government. Local skills, tools, techniques, wisdom, beliefs and costumes of the aboriginal people act as a shock absorber during disasters and successfully build resilience to climatic hazards. Most of this knowledge was transmitted over successive generations and became a part of living, cultural and religion sustenance. Adaptation strategies at community level fisheries helps in reducing vulnerabilities to extreme weather such as drought, flood and erratic rainfall pattern. Adaptation to climate change in fisheries can decipher through strategies available from fine-scale spatial and grassroots levels. Mainstreaming of climate change adaptation efforts can only be achieved through extensive assessment, research, recognition and promotion of local skills, culture, indigenous knowledge as well as community-based fisheries.",Pathways of socio-ecological resilience to climate change for fisheries through indigenous knowledge,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+739948,"In the North Pacific, warming trends, coupled with declining sea ice, raise concerns about the effects of climate change on fish populations and ecosystem dynamics. Scientists are only beginning to understand the potential feedback mechanisms that will affect everything from plankton populations to major commercial fish species distributions, yet fishery managers have a responsibility to prepare for and respond to changing fishing patterns and potential ecosystem effects. There are ways for fishery managers to be proactive, while waiting for better information to unfold. The North Pacific Fishery Management Council (Council) and the National Marine Fisheries Service have jurisdiction over offshore fisheries in Alaska, USA. Recently, the Council has undertaken risk-averse management actions, in light of uncertainty about the effects of warming trends ( and loss of sea ice) and resulting changes to fishing activities in the North Pacific. The Council has assessed whether opportunities for unregulated fishing could result from changes in fish distribution, has closed the Arctic Ocean to all commercial fishing pending further research, and has established extensive area closures where fishing with bottom-trawl gear is prohibited to protect vulnerable crab habitat and to control the northern expansion of the trawl fleet into newly ice-free waters. In cases where linkages between climate variables and fish distributions can be identified, the Council is developing adaptive management measures to respond to varying distributions of fish and shellfish. Finally, the Council has also tried to re-examine existing information to gain a better understanding of climate and ecosystem effects on fishery management. The pilot Fishery Ecosystem Plan for the Aleutian Islands maps interactions among climate factors and ecosystem components and suggests indicators for the Council to monitor.",Fishery management responses to climate change in the North Pacific,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1488385,"In many arid zones around the word, the vegetation spontaneously forms regular patterns to optimize the use of the scarce water resources. The patterns act as early warning signal that fragile ecosystems may suddenly undergo irreversible shifts, thus, interpreting the structural shape of vegetation patterns is crucial to deciphering the ecosystem history and its expected further development. The sudden and irreversible shift of delicate ecosystems as a consequence of minor variation of the climatic forcing has been studied extensively in the past. The attitude of the ecosystem to recover after a catastrophic event, such as fire, did not receive as much attention so far. Here we modelled fire, as a sudden shift of the ecosystem state variables and functionality and evaluated post-fire scenarios under the hypothesis that two major feedbacks shaped the vegetation patterns: a positive feedback between preferential infiltration and plant growth, and a second feedback between infiltration and vegetation burning. A simple model solving a set of partial differential equations for soil moisture, plant biomass, surface water and dead biomass balance predicted significantly diverse post-fire vegetation patterns depending on the fire severity and on the degree of soil water repellency induced by the vegetation burning. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Combined effect of fire and water scarcity on vegetation patterns in arid lands,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+383702,"We introduce a Rainfall, Snow and Glacier melt (RSG) standardized anomaly (SA) index to reflect water availability in cold river basins by taking into account snow and glacier melt that influence seasonal water availability. The study takes advantage of a high-resolution Water and Energy Budget-Based Hydrological Distributed Model with improved snow physics (WEB-DHM-S) at a grid size of 5 km to quantify hydrological regimes in a typical cold river basin in the Tibetan Plateau (Lhasa River basin as a demonstration site) from 1983 to 2012. Standardized anomaly index was utilized as drought Indicator whereby each meteo-hydrological parameter involved in drought quantification was fitted to a distribution pattern on a monthly basis. Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion were used as selection criteria. Drought indices were computed from the model inputs and outputs, which included RSG for meteorological drought, soil moisture (surface and root-zone) for agricultural drought and discharge and groundwater level for hydrological drought. From spatial and temporal analyses, drought occurred in 1984, 1988, 1995, 1997, 2009 and 2010, with the highest severity in August, September, July, August, June and June, respectively. This study addresses the glacierized cold river basin's dryness by considering the contribution of snow and glacier in drought quantification, an integration of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological was performed to highlight drought hotspots in the Lhasa River Basin. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first drought study in Lhasa River Basin. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Quantitative drought monitoring in a typical cold river basin over Tibetan Plateau: An integration of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1372187,". The purpose of this study is to evaluate and to quantify the influence of management on the epiphytic species composition in Danish Fagus sylvatica forests. Trunks were chosen at random within selected blocks in both managed and unmanaged Fagus stands.117 trunks in 43 sample plots in three forests were investigated. Cover was estimated for 72 lichens, 29 bryophytes and two fungi on vertical trunks 0.3 -2 m above ground. 18 explanatory variables were recorded and arranged in three groups: eight management-related variables, six micro-climatic- and soil variables, and four geographical- and geological variables. Canonical Correspondence Analysis was used to test and to quantify the explaining power of the three groups of variables applying the variation partitioning approach. Detrended Correspondence Analysis was used to evaluate whether important gradients were ignored. It was concluded that the traditional shelterwood uniform system used in Fagus forests has a marked influence on the epiphytic species composition. Thus, management-related variables explained more than one third of the total variation explained, which equals 10.9% of the total variation. Microclimatic and soil variables explained 9.0%, and geographical and geological variables explained 6.0%. The following three recommendations are suggested to reduce the significant influence of management on the epiphytic species composition. First, it should be attempted to ensure a continuous occurrence of some big trees per ha to be left for natural death and decomposition. Second, regular thinning is necessary, especially in the first part of rotation. Third, a multi-layered forest, where wind and desiccation effects are minimized, is recommended.",Influence of management on the species composition of epiphytic cryptogams in Danish Fagus forests,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2490034,"Background: Although several studies have estimated the effect of extreme temperatures on out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in a single city or region, few have investigated variations in this association on a national level in Japan. Methods: Daily data on OHCAs and weather variations were obtained from the 47 prefectures of Japan between 2005 and 2014. A time-series Poisson regression model with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the prefecture-specific effects. A multivariate meta-analysis was applied to pooled estimates on a national level. Results: A total of 659,752 OHCA cases of presumed-cardiac origin met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was identified as the 84th percentile for temperature, ranging from 20.8 degrees C in Hokkaido to 28.8 degrees C in Okinawa. The overall pooled relative risk versus the MMP was 2.10 (95% CI: 1.84, 2.40) at extremely low temperatures (1st percentile) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.12) at extremely high temperatures (99th percentile). The effects of extremely high temperatures were acute and disappeared after a few days, while those of extremely low temperatures were also acute, but persisted for several days. The multivariate Cochran'sQ test indicated no heterogeneity between prefectures (p = 0.699; I-2 = 1.0%). Conclusions: Extreme temperatures are associated with an increased risk of OHCA. Timely prevention strategies might reduce the risk of OHCA during extreme temperatures. Several days prevention should be also implemented for extremely low temperatures. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Extreme temperature and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Japan: A nationwide, retrospective, observational study",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+430677,"Economic losses caused by tropical cyclones have increased dramatically. Historical changes in losses are a result of meteorological factors (changes in the incidence of severe cyclones, whether due to natural climate variability or as a result of human activity) and socio-economic factors (increased prosperity and a greater tendency for people to settle in exposed areas). This paper aims to isolate the socio-economic effects and ascertain the potential impact of climate change on this trend. Storm losses for the period 1950-2005 have been adjusted to the value of capital stock in 2005 so that any remaining trend cannot be ascribed to socio-economic developments. For this. we introduce a new approach to adjusting losses based on the change in capital stock at risk. Storm losses are mainly determined by the intensity of the storm and the material assets. such as property and infrastructure, located in the region affected. We therefore adjust the losses to exclude increases in the capital stock of the affected region. No trend is found for the period 1950-2005 as a whole. In the period 1971 2005, since the beginning of a trend towards increased intense cyclone activity, losses excluding socioeconomic effects show an annual increase of 4% per annum. This increase must therefore be at least due to the impact of natural climate variability but, more likely than not. also due to anthropogenic forcings. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.",Tropical cyclone losses in the USA and the impact of climate change - A trend analysis based on data from a new approach to adjusting storm losses,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+211927,"Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem, with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from disturbances may be sensitive to even modest climatic changes. A research bias towards undisturbed ecosystems might thus lead to an underestimation of the impacts of climate change.",Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+900665,"This study examines knowledge-based urban development in Beijing with the objective of revealing the impact of the 'synergetic' forces of globalisation and local government intervention on knowledge-based urban development in the context of the coexisting processes of globalisation and decentralisation. The findings in this paper show that due to the rapid growth of the cultural industry sector, knowledge-based urban development has created various kinds of 'cultural industry clustered areas', which were recently promoted by the 2008 Olympic Games. 'Synergetic' global and local forces are leading knowledge-based urban development, with the emergence of a local coalition regime in which local government manages local development, considered as 'enterprises' in the decentralisation process, while the State retains a significant influence on knowledge-based urban development. The central and municipal governments tend to emphasise strategies to 'facilitate the climate for growth' rather than the centrally planned control they exerted prior to the 1980s.",Building knowledge city in transformation era: Knowledge-based urban development in Beijing in the context of globalisation and decentralisation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+796637,"On the Great Plains of North America, water resources are being threatened by climatic shifts. However, a lack of hillslope-scale climate-runoff observations is limiting our ability to understand these impacts. Here, we present a 52-year (1962-2013) dataset (precipitation, temperature, snow cover, soil water content, and runoff) from three 5 ha hillslopes on the seasonally-frozen northern Great Plains. In this region, snowmelt-runoff drives c. 80% of annual runoff and is potentially vulnerable to warming temperatures and changes in precipitation amount and phase. We assessed trends in these climatological and hydrological variables using time series analysis. We found that spring snowmelt-runoff has decreased (on average by 59%) in response to a reduction in winter snowfall (by 18%), but that rainfall-runoff has shown no significant response to a 51% increase in rainfall or shifts to more multi-day rain events. In summer, unfrozen, deep, high-infiltrability soils act as a 'shock absorber' to rainfall, buffering the long-term runoff response to rainfall. Meanwhile, during winter and spring freshet, frozen ground limits soil infiltrability and results in runoff responses that more closely mirror the snowfall and snowmelt trends. These findings are counter to climate-runoff relationships observed at the catchment scale on the northern Great Plains where land drainage alterations dominate. At the hillslope scale, decreasing snowfall, snowmelt-runoff, and spring soil water content is causing agricultural productivity to be increasingly dependent on growing season precipitation, and will likely accentuate the impact of droughts. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Climate change impacts on hillslope runoff on the northern Great Plains, 1962-2013",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+505641,"For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, 7 of the last 9 yr have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+466516,"Soil erosion is a common form of land degradation in Europe concentrating on sloping rural areas. Consequences of soil erosion include the alteration of the long-term balance between ecosystem functioning and sodo-ecological systems. Although it was hypothesized that rural areas with specific environmental (soil, climate, vegetation) and territorial attributes (economic marginality and poor accessibility) are more exposed to soil erosion risk, less information are available on the spatial link with various socio-spatial, productive, cultural and political attributes of local communities, spanning from unemployment to subsidence agriculture, from quality of life to water management, from poverty to economic backwardness. Taken together, these factors may trigger a downward spiral leading to land degradation. The present study explores, on a municipal scale in Italy, the spatial relationship between an index of soil erosion risk and 133 indicators describing six research domains. Exploratory data analysis based on non-parametric inference, principal components analysis and hierarchical clustering was carried out with the aim to profile municipalities exposed to high risk of soil erosion and to identify a restricted number of factors possibly determining a downward spiral towards soil erosion and land degradation. Results indicate that the socioeconomic profile of risky areas in Italy is characterized by specific rural development attributes and defined productive structure and socio-spatial characteristics representing a possible target for mitigation policies. Multi-factor studies investigating the influence of the local socioeconomic context on soil erosion may contribute to improve the effectiveness of national soil conservation strategies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Searching for a downward spiral? Soil erosion risk, agro-forest landscape and socioeconomic conditions in Italian local communities",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3912722,"A surprisingly large number of fish and amphibian species reproduce terrestrially despite the absence of the key evolutionary innovation of the amniotic egg. In contrast with shelled eggs of reptiles and birds, eggs of teleost fish and amphibians are typically much smaller and enclosed in relatively simple chorionic membranes. Incubation times may be brief or prolonged, and resultant hatchlings typically require the return to an aquatic habitat. Advantages of terrestrial incubation include the increased availability of warmer temperatures and avoidance of aquatic hypoxia, whereas disadvantages include desiccation, exposure to novel predators, and the risk of hatching into a hostile habitat. Hatching may be environmentally cued. Use of energy in the yolk may require trade-offs between growth of the embryo and extended incubation, as exemplified by a case study of the California Grunion. The physical challenges of terrestrial incubation, constraints for hatching, effects of egg size, and parental care are explored. Eight different types of early life history among anamniotic embryos incubating in a terrestrial environment are identified, with examples of these alternate routes to the invasion of land by vertebrates. © The Author 2013.",Brave new propagules: Terrestrial embryos in anamniotic eggs,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1901692,"Study region: North and South Dakotas, United States Study focus: Changes in watershed hydrology are mainly driven by changes in land use and climate. This study evaluated the impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow in an agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest. Three projected climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) of three general circulation models (CGCM3.1, GFDL-CM2.1, and HADCM3) were developed for mid (2046-2065) and end (2080-2099) of the 21st century. Corresponding land use maps for years 2055 and 2090 were obtained from the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-Cover (FORE-SCE) model. The scenarios were designed in a way that land use was changed while climate conditions remain constant, land use was then held constant under a changing climate, and finally both land use and climate were changed simultaneously to reflect possible future land use and climate conditions. New hydrological insights for the region: Potential land use and climate changes would result in 12-18% % and 17-41% increases in annual streamflow, respectively, by end of the century. The combined effects of land use and climate changes would intensify future streamflow responses with 13-60% increases in the region. This study provides a broad perspective on plausible hydrologic alterations in the region, prompting individual and collective opportunities to engage with this topic for sustainable planning and management of watersheds.","Streamflow response to potential land use and climate changes in the James River watershed, Upper Midwest United States",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+897905,"In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006-2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5 degrees C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5 degrees C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5 degrees C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5 degrees C warming.",Projected Changes in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C Global-Warming Scenarios,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3958375,"Fluorescence excitation functions produced through photoexcitation of N2 and CO2 using synchrotron radiation in the range 28-100 eV have been studied. Two broadband detectors were employed to simultaneously monitor fluorescence in the 1080-3000 Å and 3000-7000 Å regions, respectively. Broad fluorescence peaks are observed and are interpreted in terms of dissociative ionization excitation of multiple electronic states, ion states and Rydberg states converging to multiply charged N2 and CO2 (i.e., N2m+ and CO2m+ for m=1-3). We have also studied the temperature effect on the relative fluorescence yield of CO2 in the 28-60 eV region. It was found that the VUV fluorescence yields in the 28-40 eV region increase as sample temperature increases from 295 K to 650 K suggesting that the fluorescence produced by photon excitation of CO2 hot bands may be important.",Studies of fluorescence from photoexcitation of N2 and CO2 in the 28-100 eV region,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+680312,"Although biotic responses to contemporary climate change are spatially pervasive and often reflect synergies between climate and other ecological disturbances, the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat extent for species persistence remains poorly understood. To address this shortcoming, we performed surveys for American pikas (Ochotona princeps) at > 910 locations in 3 geographic regions of western North America during 2014 and 2015, complementing earlier modern (1994-2013) and historical (1898-1990) surveys. We sought to compare extirpation rates and the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat area for pikas in a mainland-versus-islands framework. In each region, we found widespread evidence of distributional loss-local extirpations, upslope retractions, and encounter of only old sign. Locally comprehensive surveys suggest extirpation of O. princeps from 5 of 9 new sites from the hydrographic Great Basin and from 11 of 29 sites in northeastern California. Although American pikas were recorded as recently as 2011 in Zion National Park and in 2012 from Cedar Breaks National Monument in Utah, O. princeps now appears extirpated from all reported localities in both park units. Multiple logistic regressions for each region suggested that both temperature-related and water-balance-related variables estimated from DAYMET strongly explained pika persistence at sites in the Great Basin and in Utah but not in the Sierra-Cascade ""mainland"" portion of northeastern California. Conversely, talus-habitat area did not predict American pika persistence in the Great Basin or Utah but strongly predicted persistence in the Sierra-Cascade mainland. These results not only add new areas to our understanding of long-term trend of the American pika's distribution, but also can inform decisions regarding allocation of conservation effort and management actions. Burgeoning research on species such as O. princeps has collectively demonstrated the heterogeneity and nuance with which climate can act on the distribution of mountain-dwelling mammals.","Pika (Ochotona princeps) losses from two isolated regions reflect temperature and water balance, but reflect habitat area in a mainland region",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1494353,"The aim of this study is to identify the most effective thermal predictor of heat-related very-elderly mortality in two cities located in different geographical contexts of central Italy. We tested the hypothesis that use of the state-of-the-art rational thermal indices, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), might provide an improvement in predicting heat-related mortality with respect to other predictors. Data regarding very elderly people (>= 75 years) who died in inland and coastal cities from 2006 to 2008 (May-October) and meteorological and air pollution were obtained from the regional mortality and environmental archives. Rational (UTCI) and direct thermal indices represented by a set of bivariate/multivariate apparent temperature indices were assessed. Correlation analyses and generalized additive models were applied. The Akaike weights were used for the best model selection. Direct multivariate indices showed the highest correlations with UTCI and were also selected as the best thermal predictors of heat-related mortality for both inland and coastal cities. Conversely, the UTCI was never identified as the best thermal predictor. The use of direct multivariate indices, which also account for the extra effect of wind speed and/or solar radiation, revealed the best fitting with all-cause, very-elderly mortality attributable to heat stress.",Environmental Temperature and Thermal Indices: What Is the Most Effective Predictor of Heat-Related Mortality in Different Geographical Contexts?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+140076,"Many countries have environmental legislation to protecting natural resources on private property. In Brazil, the Brazilian Forestry Code determines specific areas to maintain with natural vegetation cover, known as areas of permanent preservation (APP). Currently, there are few studies that relate topographic variables on APP. In this context, we sought to evaluate the influence of relief on the conservation of areas of permanent preservation (APP) in the areas surrounding Caparao National Park, Brazil. By using the chi-squared statistical test, we verified that the presence of forest cover is closely associated with altitude. The classes of APP in better conservation status are slopes in addition to hilltops and mountains, whereas APP streams and springs are among the areas most affected by human activities. The most deforested areas are located at altitudes below 1100.00 m and on slopes less than 45 degrees. All orientations of the sides were significant for APP conservation status, with the southern, southeastern, and southwestern sides showing the lower degrees of impact. The methodology can be adjusted to environmental legislation to other countries. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Influence of relief on permanent preservation areas,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+661019,"Climate change is a topic of enormous interest due to its direct impact and long-term consequences. The ongoing climate warming is triggering global impacts and it is likely to alter natural systems at the local scale, too. The observed climate variability in the Romanian Carpathians has been tackled by several researchers and the negative impact of climate change on groundwater vulnerability has also been assessed. A temporal analysis of four climate indices (De Martonne, UNEP Index, Johansson Continentality Index and Pinna Combinative Index) and crop evapotranspiration over the past 50 years was performed to understand the climate trends in the Beli, s district, to estimate the effective precipitation in the area and to assess the effects of climate change on groundwater resources. Land cover data were extracted from satellite images and crop evapotranspiration data were evaluated based on field co-efficients. An examination of the climate index trends and change points was carried out using the Rodionov test. In the study area, the climate indices indicated very humid and marine climate conditions. At the same time, it was noticed that the crop evapotranspiration values increased from 1961 to 2013 and the annual effective precipitation ranged between 200-300 mm. In order to understand the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources, an innovative method was proposed using an inference matrix that combines the climate indices and effective precipitation. Based on this method, the climate indices and effective precipitation for four decades indicated a low impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Beli, s district.","Climate change effects on groundwater resources: a new assessment method through climate indices and effective precipitation in Belis district, Western Carpathians",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+699473,"In 2005, southwestern Amazonia experienced the effects of an intense drought that affected life and biodiversity. Several major tributaries as well as parts of the main river itself contained only a fraction of their normal volumes of water, and lakes were drying up. The consequences for local people, animals and the forest itself are impossible to estimate now, but they are likely to be serious. The analyses indicate that the drought was manifested as weak peak river season during autumn to winter as a consequence of a weak summertime season in southwestern Amazonia; the winter season was also accompanied by rainfall that sometimes reached 25% of the climatic value, being anomalously warm and dry and helping in the propagation of fires. Analyses of climatic and hydrological records in Amazonia suggest a broad consensus that the 2005 drought was linked not to El Nino as with most previous droughts in the Amazon, but to warming sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean.",Hydro-climatic and ecological behaviour of the drought of Amazonia in 2005,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+483871,"Climate change is expected to alter temperature and precipitation patterns and thereby river discharges. As floodplain vegetation types in Central Europe are mainly structured by the local hydrologic conditions of the river, alterations in the flow regime should lead to changes in the structure of floodplain communities, too. However, much uncertainty about potential hydrologic changes exists due to the variability in modeled discharges by different global and regional climate models. Aim of our study was to assess potential changes and their uncertainty in the future habitat availability of plant species representing characteristic floodplain vegetation types along the Rhine River. Therefore, habitat distribution models for 29 different species were calculated relating species distribution to local hydrologic conditions. Habitat changes were assessed by comparing future habitat availability of five different climate change projections with reference state conditions for four stretches along the Rhine for two different future periods. Models revealed that besides different water level parameters also water level variability was decisive for habitat distribution patterns. Relative habitat changes showed large variation for the different species between and within vegetation types, as well as for the different river stretches and future periods. However, intersection of the five projections displayed large overlap regarding future habitat availability for many of the species. Moreover, a tendency of the different vegetation types to occur on higher elevated sites was found. Our study emphasizes the necessity to consider the variability of different climate change projections to reasonably assess potential changes in habitat availability of floodplain vegetation and provides a tool to identify species groups and river sections vulnerable to climate change induced hydrologic alterations. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Climate change and floodplain vegetation-future prospects for riparian habitat availability along the Rhine River,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1346341,"Satellite images in the thermal infrared can be used for assessing the thermal urban environment as well as for defining heat islands in urban areas. In this study, the thermal environment of major cities in Greece (Athens, Thessaloniki, Patra, Volos and Heraklion) is examined using satellite images provided by the Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) sensor on board Landsat 7 satellite corresponding to the daytime and warm period when the surface urban heat island (SUHI) phenomenon is best observed. The spatial structure of the thermal urban environment is analyzed in each case study and the ""hottest"" surfaces within the urban settings are identified and related to the urban surface characteristics and land use. For the needs of the study, the Corine land cover (CLC) database for Greece is also used, in an effort to define more effectively the link between surface emissivities, land surface temperatures and urban surface characteristics. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Daytime urban heat islands from Landsat ETM+ and Corine land cover data: An application to major cities in Greece,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+777156,"Urban green infrastructure offers arid cities an attractive means of mitigation/adaptation to environmental challenges of elevated thermal stress, but imposes the requirement of outdoor irrigation that aggravates the stress of water resource management. Future development of cities is inevitably constrained by the limited availability of water resources, under challenges of emergent climate change and continuous population growth. This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting model with urban dynamics to assess the potential water buffeting capacity of urban green infrastructure in arid environments and its implications for sustainable urban planning. The Phoenix metropolitan area, Arizona, United States, is adopted as a testbed with water-saving and fully-greening scenarios investigated. Modifications of the existing green infrastructure and irrigation practices are found to significantly influence the thermal environment of Phoenix. In particular, water saving by xeriscaping (0.77 +/- 0.05 x 10(8) m(3)) allows the region to support 19.8% of the annual water consumption by the projected 2.62 million population growth by 2050, at a cost of an increase in urban ambient temperature of about 1 degrees C.",Planning for a sustainable desert city: The potential water buffering capacity of urban green infrastructure,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+649761,"Predicted impacts of climate change on the marine environment include an increase in temperature, a rise in sea levels and a decrease in sea-ice cover. These impacts will occur at local, regional and larger scales. The potential impacts of climate change on marine mammals can be direct, such as the effects of reduced sea ice and rising sea levels on seal haul-out sites, or species tracking a specific range of water temperatures in which they can physically survive. Indirect effects of climate change include changes in prey availability affecting distribution, abundance and migration patterns, community structure, susceptibility to disease and contaminants. Ultimately, these will impact on the reproductive success and survival of marine mammals and, hence, have consequences for populations. Marine mammal species, which have restricted geographical distributions with little or no opportunity for range expansion in response to climate change, may be particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The potential effects of climate change on marine mammals have a number of implications for their conservation and highlight several areas requiring further research.",Potential effects of climate change on marine mammals,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+398361,"Heat waves are expected to intensify around the globe in the future, with potential increase in heat stress and heat-induced mortality in the absence of adaptation measures. India has a high current exposure to heat waves, and with limited adaptive capacity, impacts of increased heat waves might be quite severe. This paper presents the first projections of future heat waves in India based on multiple climate models and scenarios for CMIP5 data. We find that heat waves are projected to be more intense, have longer durations and occur at a higher frequency and earlier in the year. Southern India, currently not influenced by heat waves, is expected to be severely affected by the end of the twenty-first century. Projections indicate that a sizable part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. In northern India, the average number of days with extreme heat stress condition during pre-monsoon hot season will reach 30. The intensification of heat waves might lead to severe heat stress and increased mortality.",Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2342174,"Anadromous Atlantic salmon move from fresh water to the ocean and gain weight. The fish move over large areas and are exposed to different environments and ecological communities during the marine phase of the life cycle. Although the biomass of salmon in the ocean is very small compared with the biomass of other pelagic marine species, Atlantic salmon are still part of the marine ecosystem and subjected to fluctuations and changes in that system. The distribution of salmon in the sea is probably dependent on several environmental factors like surface temperature and surface currents. Furthermore, the oceanic distribution of salmon may probably also be determined by genetic components, for example that salmon have developed navigation systems that bring the fish to the right place at the right time, and thus maximize fitness. It is also reasonable to assume that the availability of suitable food organisms affects the distribution of salmon in the sea, as growth and survival are important fitness characters as well. Salmon spend most of their time in the ocean close to the water surface, and prey on different pelagic animals such as crustaceans, fish and squid. Several authors have suggested that Atlantic salmon are opportunistic feeders, but selective feeding has also been described. The abundance of Atlantic salmon in the north Atlantic has declined considerably in recent years. The decline is evident from most of the salmon distribution area, and is most pronounced for large salmon, but there appears to be no significant density-dependent mortality of salmon in the sea as there is in fresh water. The abundance of salmon is dependent on several factors such as smolt production, natural and man-made mortality. It has been shown that marine mortality accounts for a significant proportion of the decline, and is associated with a decline in the temperature to which post-smolts are exposed during the first months at sea. There are many factors thought to influence marine mortality of salmon. Although it has been suggested that the highest mortality takes place at the post-smolt stage, there are also indications that heavy mortality may occur later in the life cycle. Important sources of post-smolt mortality are predation, infestations of parasites and diseases, influences from freshwater life, as well as synergistic effects between these and a number of other factors. Furthermore, salmon may respond to changes in the ecosystem by altering their life histories, which may be seen by, for example, changes in growth rates, sea age at maturity and seasonal return pattern. Salmon are harvested in the ocean, but exploitation in commercial fisheries is now close to zero. On the other hand, recent information from surface trawling experiments in the Norwegian Sea has raised concern about the significance of by-catches of salmon post-smolts in pelagic fisheries for marine species.",The ecology of post-smolts of Atlantic salmon,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+322282,"Potential impacts of climate change on heavy rainfall events and flooding in the Australian region are explored using the results of a general circulation model (GCM) run in an equilibrium enhanced greenhouse experiment. In the doubled CO, simulation, the model simulates an increase in the frequency of high-rainfall events and a decrease in the frequency of low-rainfall events. This result applies over most of Australia, is statistically more significant than simulated changes in total rainfall, and is supported by theoretical considerations. We show that this result implies decreased return periods for heavy rainfall events. The further implication is that flooding could increase, although we discuss here the many difficulties associated with assessing in quantitative terms the significance of the modelling results for the real world. The second part of the paper assesses the implications of climate change for drought occurrence in Australia. This is undertaken using an off-line soil water balance model driven by observed time series of rainfall and potential evaporation to determine the sensitivity of the soil water regime to changes in rainfall and temperature, and hence potential evaporation. Potential impacts are assessed at nine sites, representing a range of climate regimes and possible climate futures, by linking this sensitivity analysis with scenarios of regional climate change, derived from analysis of enhanced greenhouse experiment results from five GCMs. Results indicate that significant drying may be limited to the south of Australia. However, because the direction of change in terms of the soil water regime is uncertain at all sites and for all seasons, there is no basis for statements about how drought potential may change.",IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE DUE TO THE ENHANCED GREENHOUSE-EFFECT ON FLOODS AND DROUGHTS IN AUSTRALIA,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+382499,"The decline in Arctic sea ice cover has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts locally. An emerging and highly uncertain area of scientific research, however, is whether such Arctic change has a tangible effect on weather and climate at lower latitudes. Of particular societal relevance is the open question: will continued Arctic sea ice loss make mid-latitude weather more extreme? Here we analyse idealized atmospheric general circulation model simulations, using two independent models, both forced by projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. We identify robust projected changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes arising solely due to Arctic sea ice loss. The likelihood and duration of cold extremes are projected to decrease over high latitudes and over central and eastern North America, but to increase over central Asia. Hot extremes are projected to increase in frequency and duration over high latitudes. The likelihood and severity of wet extremes are projected to increase over high latitudes, the Mediterranean and central Asia; and their intensity is projected to increase over high latitudes and central and eastern Asia. The number of dry days over mid-latitude Eurasia and dry spell duration over high latitudes are both projected to decrease. There is closer model agreement for projected changes in temperature extremes than for precipitation extremes. Overall, we find that extreme weather over central and eastern North America is more sensitive to Arctic sea ice loss than over other mid-latitude regions. Our results are useful for constraining the role of Arctic sea ice loss in shifting the odds of extreme weather, but must not be viewed as deterministic projections, as they do not account for drivers other than Arctic sea ice loss.",Projected changes in regional climate extremes arising from Arctic sea ice loss,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+147766,"Households are major contributors to the emission of greenhouse gases and, consequently, to global warming. The past decades have seen significant improvements in building energy efficiency through the introduction of new building regulations and the construction of low energy buildings. However, the expected energy reduction has not been observed, largely due to the complicated and hard-to-predict nature of occupant behavior. This paper explores the impact of occupants on residential energy consumption in China. Surveys related to behavior and energy use in the city of Hangzhou were collected in the winter (n = 642) and summer (n = 838). Findings show that occupant age is a more significant factor than income. Contrary to existing research, a negative correlation between occupant age and energy consumption was found in this study. Elderly residents exhibit a more frugal behavior pattern than the younger ones. In addition, this paper reveals that household socio-economic and behavior variables are able to explain 28.8% of the variation in heating and cooling energy consumption. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","A statistical analysis of a residential energy consumption survey study in Hangzhou, China",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3228705,"Mortality, driven by both climate and disturbance legacies, is a key process shaping forest dynamics. Understanding the mortality patterns in primary forests in the absence of severe disturbances provides information on background natural dynamics of a given forest type under ongoing climate change. This can then be compared to mortality rates in severely-disturbed stands. Using a large number of sample plots along a gradient from low to high disturbance, we examined the mortality rates and composition of mortality agents in primary mountain Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests on different spatial scales. We evaluated the mortality rates and causes of mortality in 28 stands across a large geographical gradient spanning over 1000 km. We resampled (five-year period) 371 plots (16,287 living trees) in primary Norway spruce forests along the Carpathian mountain chain. The estimated overall annual mortality rate was within the previously reported range of background (ambient) mortality, however, stand-level and plot-level mortality rates varied substantially. Over 18% of plots displayed more than 2% annual mortality and 6% of plots even exceeded 10% per year. Stands in the Western Carpathians showed the highest variability in the mortality rate, with 30% of the stands in this region showing annual mortality rates over 5%. At the plot level, mixed-severity disturbances increased variability of mortality rates within most localities. Overall mortality was evenly distributed among size classes up to 50 cm diameter at breast height (DBH). However, the distributions differ for individual mortality agents. Mortality modes were classified into six categories (broken crown, broken stem, uprooted, competition, bark beetle/fungi, climatic extremes). Bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) infestation was the most frequent mortality agent in all stands, whereas the influence of competition as a mortality agent varied substantially. Mortality from abiotically-caused physical damage was similar to that from competition, yet the distribution among modes of physical damage (uprooted, crown, or stem breakage) varied. The lack of clear evidence of mortality agents in some locations implies that many tree deaths are caused by a combination of contributing factors. The results suggest the role of bark beetle as a mortality agent does not equate to severe mortality at large scales. Prevalence of different size classes affected by individual mortality agents underline the high complexity of the mortality process in primary forests.",Contrasting patterns of natural mortality in primary Picea forests of the Carpathian Mountains,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2390246,"The resolution of conservation genetic analyses has been limited until recently due to technological and computational challenges associated with genotyping multiple loci at once. In this review, we focus on how the development of high-throughput genotyping methods have enabled conservation genomics studies of wolves in North America. The gray wolf (Canis lupus) historically had a Holarctic distribution across widely varying environments, yet during the early twentieth century many populations declined due to direct persecution and other anthropogenic disturbances. First, we discuss genetic substructure and adaptive uniqueness among genetically and environmentally defined wolf ecotypes. Second, we focus on the new conservation implications revealed by studies having increased genomic resolution of the dynamics of reintroduced and re-established wolves, specifically Mexican and Pacific Northwest wolves. Mexican wolves, a distinct subspecies of North American wolf that inhabit a small area within the southwestern U.S. and Mexico, remain endangered despite decades since a reintroduction program began. How biologists and management agencies use scientific data to define the historical range of Mexican wolves will be critical to future reintroduction efforts. In the Pacific Northwest, admixture occurs between the distinct and declining coastal wolf ecotype and the more abundant reintroduced interior wolves. If coastal wolves obtain protection, then the Pacific Northwest wolves may also warrant protection. Therefore, more precise policies are needed for the management of admixed populations when one source is protected. We recommend that future conservation efforts should provide full protection for distinct ecotypes, support scientifically rigorous definitions of historical range to inform restoration, and enhance the legal status of admixed populations.",Conservation genomics illuminates the adaptive uniqueness of North American gray wolves,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1679719,"Climate change is expected to have numerous and complex impacts on water resources, with consequences for agricultural production through changes in crop water requirements; the availability and quality of water; and increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. Although there is substantial uncertainty about the magnitude of impacts, especially at the local level, this does not call for inaction. On the basis of the recent work undertaken by OECD in this area, we identify and discuss three main dimensions for a comprehensive adaptation strategy for agricultural water management: i) creating an enabling environment to foster on-farm adaptive capacities through policies targeted at innovation, education, and advisory and extension services; ii) improving agricultural water management through the development of flexible and robust instruments, such as water pricing and water markets, to deal with both short-run water shortages and long-run water stress; iii) developing and improving risk management tools for droughts and floods to ensure that the true cost of risks is signalled to farmers while at the same time improving the efficiency of risk allocation. We highlight the importance of policy coherence in recognising the linkages between climate change adaptation and mitigation.","Climate Change, Water and Agriculture: Challenges and Adaptation Strategies",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2353938,"BackgroundDuring the summers of 2003 and 2015, heat was found to be the cause of asubstantial number of deaths in Germany. Until now, estimates for the total number of heat-related deaths were only available regionally in Germany. For the summer of 2003, an analysis for Baden-Wurttemberg was extrapolated to the whole of Germany.ObjectivesOur analysis tries to prove astable statistical relationship between heat and mortality and to use this to quantify the number of heat-related deaths in Germany between the years 2001 and 2015.Materials and methodsBy fitting anonlinear statistical model, we estimated exposure-response curves that describe the influence of heat on the mortality rate. The performance of different indicators for heat stress was compared.ResultsThe comparison of the different indicators for heat showed that the weekly mean temperature was most useful to explain the course of the weekly mortality during the summer. The relation between mortality rate and weekly mean temperature varied between age groups and regions in Germany (north, middle, south). The age groups (75-84) and (85+) were most affected by heat. The highest number of heat-related deaths was 7600 (95% CI 5500-9900), found for the summer 2003, followed by 6200 (4000; 8000) in the summer 2006 and 6100 (4000; 8300) in the summer 2015.ConclusionsWe could show that even in weekly data on mortality, aclear influence of heat could be identified. Anational surveillance of mortality that allows real-time monitoring would be desirable.",Estimation of heat-related deaths in Germany between 2001 and 2015,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1299966,"From 2011 to 2013, Texas experienced its worst drought in recorded history. This event provided a unique natural experiment to assess species-specific responses to extreme drought and mortality of four co-occurring woody species: Quercus fusiformis, Diospyros texana, Prosopis glandulosa, and Juniperus ashei. We examined hypothesized mechanisms that could promote these species' diverse mortality patterns using postdrought measurements on surviving trees coupled to retrospective process modelling. The species exhibited a wide range of gas exchange responses, hydraulic strategies, and mortality rates. Multiple proposed indices of mortality mechanisms were inconsistent with the observed mortality patterns across species, including measures of the degree of iso/anisohydry, photosynthesis, carbohydrate depletion, and hydraulic safety margins. Large losses of spring and summer whole-tree conductance (driven by belowground losses of conductance) and shallower rooting depths were associated with species that exhibited greater mortality. Based on this retrospective analysis, we suggest that species more vulnerable to drought were more likely to have succumbed to hydraulic failure belowground.",Co-occurring woody species have diverse hydraulic strategies and mortality rates during an extreme drought,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2333130,"Comparison of numerically simulated ozone fields with various experimental data makes it possible to evaluate the quality of models for their use in reliable prediction of variations of the ozone layer. We compared the satellite (SBUV) and ground-based (IFS Bruker 125HR) measurements of ozone content in two atmospheric layers (0-25 and 25-60 km) with the numerical simulation data (obtained using the low- and middle-atmosphere models) over St. Petersburg for the period between 2011 and 2014, namely, the daily and monthly average values of ozone content for 3.5 years (June 2011-December 2014). In general, model describes the experimental ozone content with good or satisfactory accuracy in the two layers. Nevertheless, some systematic differences are found out between the satellite and ground-based data and the results of simulation. In the autumn-winter period, the model usually overestimates the ozone column in the 0-25 km layer as compared to the satellite measurements, and underestimates it in the 25-60 km layer. The same features are observed for daily and monthly average values. In some cases, the model shows strong and high-frequency oscillations in the ozone content, which are not observed in the measurements.",Ozone over St. Petersburg: Comparison of Experimental Data and Numerical Simulation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+635694,"Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.",The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+489217,"Human effects on estuaries are often associated with major decreases in abundance of aquatic species. However, remediation priorities are difficult to identify when declines result from multiple stressors with interacting sublethal effects. The San Francisco Estuary offers a useful case study of the potential role of contaminants in declines of organisms because the waters of its delta chronically violate legal water quality standards; however, direct effects of contaminants on fish species are rarely observed. Lack of direct lethality in the field has prevented consensus that contaminants may be one of the major drivers of coincident but unexplained declines of fishes with differing life histories and habitats (anadromous, brackish, and freshwater). Our review of available evidence indicates that examining the effects of contaminants and other stressors on specific life stages in different seasons and salinity zones of the estuary is critical to identifying how several interacting stressors could contribute to a general syndrome of declines. Moreover, warming water temperatures of the magnitude projected by climate models increase metabolic rates of ectotherms, and can hasten elimination of some contaminants. However, for other pollutants, concurrent increases in respiratory rate or food intake result in higher doses per unit time without changes in the contaminant concentrations in the water. Food limitation and energetic costs of osmoregulating under altered salinities further limit the amount of energy available to fish; this energy must be redirected from growth and reproduction toward pollutant avoidance, enzymatic detoxification, or elimination. Because all of these processes require energy, bioenergetics methods are promising for evaluating effects of sublethal contaminants in the presence of other stressors, and for informing remediation. Predictive models that evaluate the direct and indirect effects of contaminants will be possible when data become available on energetic costs of exposure to contaminants given simultaneous exposure to non-contaminant stressors.","Life Histories, Salinity Zones, and Sublethal Contributions of Contaminants to Pelagic Fish Declines Illustrated with a Case Study of San Francisco Estuary, California, USA",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+278738,"Background: Although adverse effects of high temperature on mortality have been studied extensively in urban areas, little is known of the heat-mortality associations outside of cities. Objective: We investigated whether heat-mortality associations differed between urban and nonurban areas and how urbanicity affected the vulnerability to heat-related mortality. Methods: We first analyzed heat-related mortality risk in each of 102 counties in Jiangsu Province, China, during 2009-2013 using a distributed-lag nonlinear model. The county-specific estimates were then pooled for more urban (percentage of urban population >= 57.11%) and less urban (percentage of urban population < 57.11%) counties using a Bayesian hierarchical model. To explain the spatial variation in associations by county, county-level characteristics affecting heat vulnerability were also examined. Results: We found that the overall mortality risk comparing the 99th vs. 75th percentiles of temperature was 1.43 [95% posterior intervals (PI): 1.36, 1.50] in less urban counties and 1.26 (95% PI: 1.23, 1.30) in more urban counties. The heat effects on cardiorespiratory mortality followed a similar pattern. Higher education level and prevalence of air conditioning were significantly associated with counties having lower risks, whereas percentage of elderly people was significantly associated with increased risks. Conclusion: Our findings reveal that nonurban areas have significant heat-related mortality risks in Jiangsu, China. These results suggest the need for enhanced adaptation planning in Chinese nonurban areas under a changing climate.","Urbanization Level and Vulnerability to Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+242398,Variations in synchronicity between colonization rate by the pathogen and host phenology may account for unexplained spatial distribution of canker disease. The hypothesis that synchronous pathogenicity and host development are necessary for incidence of sudden oak death disease was tested by correlating seasonal variations in host cambial phenology and response to inoculation with Phytophthora ramorum. Response to infection was estimated by inoculating branch cuttings from coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia) trees at nine dates through a full annual cycle in 2003-2004. Host phenology was estimated from measurements of bud burst and cambial activity in spring 2006. Lesions were largest in the spring soon after the cambium resumed activity. A moderate genetic component to lesion size was detected. Variation among trees in date of largest lesions correlated with variation in timing of bud burst and cambial phenology. The data support the hypothesis that active host cambial tissue is a necessary requisite for successful infection with the pathogen that causes sudden oak death canker disease. Genetic variation in host phenology will buffer coast live oak against epidemics of this disease.,Evidence for the role of synchronicity between host phenology and pathogen activity in the distribution of sudden oak death canker disease,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+399545,"Estimates of the impacts of climate change on streamflow generally have not included concurrent effects of urbanization. A statistical analysis of historical streamflow, climate, and population data for 39 urbanizing and 21 nearby rural basins in four regions of the United States was used to estimate the future effects of climate change and urbanization on mean annual streamflow. Basins were located generally at lower elevations where streamflow was dominated by rainfall rather than snowmelt. Rural basins showed predicted average changes in mean annual streamflow ranging between +24 and -49% for the specific climate change scenarios tested (precipitation changes -20 to +20%, temperature changes 0 degrees C to +4 degrees C). Urbanization increased mean annual streamflow in rough proportion to average cumulative changes in population density on the basins, equivalent to an average flow increase of 103% with complete watershed urbanization. Urbanization also appeared to reduce the sensitivity of mean annual streamflow to temperature changes compared to mean flow response on rural basins. No significant regional differences in mean flow response to climate change and urbanization were found. Despite the uncertainty in predicting future streamflow with models based upon past records, urbanization appears potentially capable of significantly offsetting flow declines or augmenting flow increases caused by climate change.",Potential effects of climate change and urbanization on mean annual streamflow in the United States,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2091688,"We recall the main elements of fire weather in the Mediterranean environment and present the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System as the fire danger rating system currently most widely applied in Mediterranean Europe. We also present the results of some calibration studies of the FWI System component carried out in the Mediterranean environment by various authors. Secondly, we look at the distribution of FWI System component values during the 2,816 major fires (i.e. fires with final size &gt; 500 ha) recorded in Southern Europe in the last 28 years. Finally we present a regression model we have developed that predicts (R2 = 0.87) monthly burned area in the European Mediterranean basin from monthly averages of the Initial Spread Index (ISI) and Drought Code (DC) components of FWI, valid for the months May to November. © 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.",Weather factors and fire danger in the mediterranean,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+555122,"Heat and heat waves are projected to increase in severity and frequency with increasing global mean temperatures. Studies in urban areas show an association between increases in mortality and increases in heat, measured by maximum or minimum temperature, heat index, and sometimes, other weather conditions. Health effects associated with exposure to extreme and prolonged heat appear to be related to environmental temperatures above those to which the population is accustomed. Models of weather-mortality relationships indicate that populations in northeastern and midwestern U.S. cities are likely to experience the greatest number of illnesses and deaths in response to changes in summer temperature. Physiologic and behavioral adaptations may reduce morbidity and mortality. Within heat-sensitive regions, urban populations are the most vulnerable to adverse heat-related health outcomes. The elderly, young children, the poor, and people who are bedridden or are on certain medications are at particular risk. Heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable through behavioral adaptations, including the use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Overall death rates are higher in winter than in summer, and it is possible that milder winters could reduce deaths in winter months. However, the relationship between winter weather and mortality is difficult to interpret. Other adaptation measures include heat emergency plans, warning systems, and illness management plans. Research is needed to identify critical weather parameters, the associations between beat and nonfatal illnesses, the evaluation of implemented heat response plans, and the effectiveness of urban design in reducing heat retention.",The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+386438,"Carbon sequestration by forested ecosystems offers a potential climate change mitigation benefit. However, wildfire has the potential to reverse this benefit. In the western United States, climate change and land management practices have led to increases in wildfire intensity and size. One potential means of reducing carbon emissions from wildfire is the use of prescribed burning,which consumes less biomass and therefore releases less carbon to the atmosphere. This study uses a regional fire emissions model to estimate the potential reduction in fire emissions when prescribed burning is applied in dry, temperate forested systems of the western U.S. Daily carbon dioxide (CO2) fire emissions for 2001-2008 were calculated for the western U.S. for two cases: a default wildfire case and one in which prescribed burning was applied. Wide-scale prescribed fire application can reduce CO2 fire emissions for the western U.S. by 18-25% in the western U.S., and by as much as 60% in specific forest systems. Although this work does not address important considerations such as the feasibility of implementing wide-scale prescribed fire management or the cumulative emissions from repeated prescribed burning, it does provide constraints on potential carbon emission reductions when prescribed burning is used.",Prescribed Fire As a Means of Reducing Forest Carbon Emissions in the Western United States,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+495734,"Across the globe, native savannas and woodlands are undergoing conversion to exotic grasslands. Here we summarize the current state of knowledge concerning the ecohydrological consequences of this conversion for the cold deserts (Great Basin, Colorado Plateau) and the warm deserts (Mojave, Sonoran, Chihuahuan) of North America. Our analysis is based on a synthesis of relevant literature, complemented by simulation modelling with a one-dimensional, soil water redistribution model (HYDRUS-1D) and a hillslope runoff and erosion model (MAHLERAN). When shrublands are invaded by grasses, many changes take place: rooting depths, canopy cover, species heterogeneity, water use, and fire regimes are radically altered. These changes then have the potential to alter key ecohydrological processes. With respect to the processes of runoff and erosion, we find that grass invasion influences cold and warm deserts in different ways. In cold deserts, runoff and erosion will increase following invasion; in particular, erosion on steep slopes (>15%) will be greatly accelerated following burning. In addition, evapotranspiration (ET) will be lower and soil water recharge will be higherwhich after several decades could affect groundwater levels. For warm deserts, grass invasion may actually reduce runoff and erosion (except for periods immediately following fire), and is likely to have little effect on either ET fluxes or soil water. Significant gaps in our knowledge do remain, primarily because there have been no comprehensive studies measuring all components of the water and energy budgets at multiple scales. How these changes may affect regional energy budgets, and thus weather patterns, is not yet well understood. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Invasion of shrublands by exotic grasses: ecohydrological consequences in cold versus warm deserts,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+744260,"The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and shows significant sensitivity to anthropogenic climate forcing and the ongoing climate change. Accelerated changes in the Arctic are already observed, including elevated air and ocean temperatures, declines of the summer sea ice extent and sea ice thickness influencing the albedo and CO2 exchange, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and increased thawing of surrounding permafrost regions. In turn, the hydrological cycle in the high latitude and Arctic is expected to undergo changes although to date it is challenging to accurately quantify this. Moreover, changes in the temperature and salinity of surface waters in the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas may also influence the flow of dense water through the Denmark Strait, which are found to be a precursor for changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation with a lead time of around 10 years (Hawkins and Sutton in Geophys Res Lett 35:L11603, 2008). Evidently changes in the Arctic and surrounding seas have far reaching influences on regional and global environment and climate variability, thus emphasizing the need for advanced quantitative understanding of the ocean circulation and transport variability in the high latitude and Arctic Ocean. In this respect, this study combines in situ hydrographical data, surface drifter data and direct current meter measurements, with coupled sea ice-ocean models, radar altimeter data and the latest GOCE-based geoid in order to estimate and assess the quality, usefulness and validity of the new GOCE-derived mean dynamic topography for studies of the ocean circulation and transport estimates in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean.",Toward Improved Estimation of the Dynamic Topography and Ocean Circulation in the High Latitude and Arctic Ocean: The Importance of GOCE,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1492301,"Understanding the drivers (internal and external) that determine the productivity of marine ecosystems is challenging. For example, the correct estimate of recruitment is essential to estimate fish stock abundance. In this Theme Section, 5 papers explore the effect of fishing and climate on population structure across sub-Arctic ecosystems. The studies focus on how temperature- and fishing-induced changes in spatial and demographic population structure affect recruitment and population growth rate. The results suggest common patterns, but also highlight differences in the relative importance of fishing and climate among the populations and ecosystems examined.",INTRODUCTION Impact of climate and fisheries on sub-Arctic stocks,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3297170,"Fish distribution is strongly influenced by temperature, with populations predicted to respond to ongoing changes in ocean climate by adapting distribution to maintain preferred thermal habitats. Over the last several decades, the Northwest Atlantic off Newfoundland, Canada has experienced wide variation in temperature and significant changes in the structure of the marine community. A period of particularly cold ocean conditions from the mid-1980s to mid-1990s saw Greenland halibut occupying deeper waters, and moving farther offshore and southward. Distributional shifts across periods of varying thermal conditions were most pronounced in the youngest ages. While no specific nursery areas were evident, these young fish typically occurred in shallower waters where temperatures were more variable, moving deeper with age. Sensitivity to changing ocean climate may vary with age. This adaptation to shifting temperatures suggests that this species is likely to alter its distribution in the face of continued changes in ocean climate. Age-specific differences in response to changing temperature have potential implications for ecosystem interactions and fisheries management.",Age-specific shifts in Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) distribution in response to changing ocean climate,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+89209,"We evaluated the effects of past and future trends in temperature and discharge in the Fraser River on the migratory performance of the early Stuart population of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka. Fish of lower condition exhibited disproportionately higher mortality during the spawning run, elucidating a critical link between energetic condition and a fish's ability to reach the spawning grounds. We simulated spawning migrations by accounting for energetic demands for an average individual in the population from the time of entry into the Fraser River estuary to arrival on the spawning grounds (about 1,200 km upstream) and estimated energy expenditures for the average migrant during 1950-2001. The model output indicates relatively high interannual variability in migration energy use and a marked increase in energy demands in recent years related to unusually high discharges (e.g., 1997) and warmer than average water temperature (e.g., 1998). We examined how global climate change might effect discharge, water temperature, and the energy used by sockeye salmon during their spawning migration. Expected future reductions in peak flows during freshets markedly reduced transit time to the spawning ground, representing a substantial energy savings that compensated for the effect of the increased metabolic rate resulting from exposure to warmer river temperatures. We suggest that such watershed-scale compensatory mechanisms may be critical to the long-term sustainability of Pacific salmon, given expected changes in climate. However, such compensation will probably only be applicable to some stocks and may be limited under extremely high temperatures where nonenergetic factors such as disease and stress may play a more dominant role in defining mortality. Our results further indicate that a long-term decline in the mean mass of adult sockeye salmon completing their marine residency could erode their migratory fitness during the river migration and hence jeopardize the sustainability of sockeye salmon and the fishery that targets them.","Effects of river discharge, temperature, and future climates on energetics and mortality of adult migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+720925,"Forest management is challenged by increasing needs to adapt practices to future climate change likely to be characterised by a changing frequency of extreme weather events, in turn in uncertain ways resulting in more pronounced disturbances on forests. In this paper, we explore the extent to which insights acquired by ecological theory, in particular with respect to stabilising properties, have been of use to forest management theory and practice, and whether these insights can be applied in a valuable way to forest managers in view of increasingly uncertain disturbance regimes. We find it highly unlikely that there exists one strategy option that can optimise for all types of disturbances and that can also maximise for all other demands placed on forest management. Therefore, management needs to be related to the most relevant disturbances; or, alternatively, a multitude of management options may be combined as an insurance strategy. Possibly, heterogeneous/mixed forest communities could insure against climate-change related pressures. We also note the importance of spatio-temporal scales when relating disturbance to stability, and thus the needs for advancing modelling in that field to assist in developing management strategies for the future. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",The usefulness of stability concepts in forest management when coping with increasing climate uncertainties,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1291598,"Streamflow reconstructions based on paleoclimate proxies provide much longer records than the short instrumental period records on which water resource management plans are currently based. In Australia there is a lack of in-situ high resolution paleoclimate proxy records, but remote proxies with teleconnections to Australian climate have utility in producing streamflow reconstructions. Here we investigate, via a case study for a catchment in eastern Australia, the novel use of an Antarctic ice-core based rainfall reconstruction within a Budyko-framework to reconstruct similar to 1000 years of annual streamflow. The resulting stream-flow reconstruction captures interannual to decadal variability in the instrumental streamflow, validating both the use of the ice core rainfall proxy record and the Budyko-framework method. In the preinstrumental era the streamflow reconstruction shows longer wet and dry epochs and periods of streamflow variability that are higher than observed in the instrumental era. Importantly, for both the instrumental record and preinstrumental reconstructions, the wet (dry) epochs in the rainfall record are shorter (longer) in the streamflow record and this non-linearity must be considered when inferring hydroclimatic risk or historical water availability directly from rainfall proxy records alone. These insights provide a better understanding of present infrastructure vulnerability in the context of past climate variability for eastern Australia. The streamflow reconstruction presented here also provides a better understanding of the range of hydroclimatic variability possible, and therefore represents a more realistic baseline on which to quantify the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on water security. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Reconstructing pre-instrumental streamflow in Eastern Australia using a water balance approach,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+264816,"In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming(1,2) of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice(3,4). Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution(5,6). Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing(7) and remote Pacific climate variability(8,9), but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(10,11) (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation(6) and sea-level change(3,12).",Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2185487,"Here we present the first empirical evidence for changes in groundwater drought associated with anthropogenic warming in the absence of long-term changes in precipitation. Analysing standardised indices of monthly groundwater levels, precipitation and temperature, using two unique groundwater level data sets from the Chalk aquifer, UK, for the period 1891 to 2015, we show that precipitation deficits are the main control on groundwater drought formation and propagation. However, long-term changes in groundwater drought are shown to be associated with anthropogenic warming over the study period. These include increases in the frequency and intensity of individual groundwater drought months, and increases in the frequency, magnitude and intensity of episodes of groundwater drought, as well as an increasing tendency for both longer episodes of groundwater drought and for an increase in droughts of less than 1 year in duration. We also identify a transition from a coincidence of episodes of groundwater drought with precipitation droughts at the end of the 19th century, to an increasing coincidence with both precipitation droughts and with hot periods in the early 21st century. In the absence of long-term changes in precipitation deficits, we infer that the changing nature of groundwater droughts is due to changes in evapotranspiration (ET) associated with anthropogenic warming. We note that although the water tables are relatively deep at the two study sites, a thick capillary fringe of at least 30 m in the Chalk means that ET should not be limited by precipitation at either site. ET may be supported by groundwater through major episodes of groundwater drought and, hence, long-term changes in ET associated with anthropogenic warming may drive long-term changes in groundwater drought phenomena in the Chalk aquifer. Given the ex-tent of shallow groundwater globally, anthropogenic warming may widely effect changes to groundwater drought characteristics in temperate environments.",Changes in groundwater drought associated with anthropogenic warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+216747,"American pikas (Ochotona princeps) have been heralded as indicators of montane-mammal response to contemporary climate change. Pikas no longer occupy the driest and lowest-elevation sites in numerous parts of their geographic range. Conversely, pikas have exhibited higher rates of occupancy and persistence in Rocky Mountain and Sierra Nevada montane 'mainlands'. Research and monitoring efforts on pikas across the western USA have collectively shown the nuance and complexity with which climate will often act on species in diverse topographic and climatic contexts. However, to date no studies have investigated habitat, distribution, and abundance of pikas across hundreds of sites within a remote wilderness area. Additionally, relatively little is known about whether climate acts most strongly on pikas through direct or indirect (e.g., vegetation-mediated) mechanisms. During 2007-2009, we collectively hiked > 16,000 km throughout the 410,077-ha Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, in an effort to identify topographic, microrefugial, and vegetative characteristics predictive of pika abundance. We identified 411 apparently pika-suitable habitat patches with binoculars (in situ), and surveyed 314 of them for pika signs. Ranking of alternative logistic-regression models based on AIC(c) scores revealed that short-term pika abundances were positively associated with intermediate elevations, greater cover of mosses, and taller forbs, and decreased each year, for a total decline of 68% during the three-year study; whereas longer-term abundances were associated only with static variables (longitude, elevation, gradient) and were lower on north-facing slopes. Earlier Julian date and time of day of the survey (i.e., midday vs. not) were associated with lower observed pika abundance. We recommend that wildlife monitoring account for this seasonal and diel variation when surveying pikas. Broad-scale information on status and abundance determinants of montane mammals, especially for remote protected areas, is crucial for land and wildlife-resource managers trying to anticipate mammalian responses to climate change.",Predictors of Current and Longer-Term Patterns of Abundance of American Pikas (Ochotona princeps) across a Leading- Edge Protected Area,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+216471,"Like many high latitude areas, the mountainous region of subarctic Canada has experienced recent warming and is an area of large inter-annual temperature variations, most notably during the winter. Quantifying how climate tendencies affect streamflow, especially in the spring melt season, is critical not only to regional water resource management, but to understanding the influence of freshwater on the Arctic sea-ice cover and global climate system. The impact of projected atmospheric warming on the discharge of the Liard River is unclear. Here, uncertainty in climate projections associated with GCM structure (2 degrees C prescribed warming) and magnitude of increases in global mean air temperature (1 to 6 degrees C) on the river discharge are assessed using a well-tested, semi-distributed hydrological model. Analyses have shown that the hydrological impacts are highly dependant on the GCM scenario. Uncertainties between the GCM scenarios are driven by the inconsistencies in projected spatial variability and magnitude of precipitation, rather than warming temperatures. Despite these uncertainties, the entire scenario simulations project that the subarctic nival regime will be preserved in the future, but the magnitude of change in river discharge is highly uncertain. Generally, spring freshet will arrive earlier, autumn to spring discharge will increase whereas summer flow will decrease, leading to an overall increase in annual discharge.",Uncertainty in the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of a subarctic environment: Liard River Basin,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1313635,"1. The associations of six environmental factors with vegetative attributes on a species-rich Syrian grassland were investigated during 2 years with contrasting climatic conditions using an unreplicated factorial experiment. The six factors were (i) phosphate supply (nil or 25 kg ha(-1) P2O5); (ii) grazing severity (0.8 or 1.7 sheep ha(-1)); (iii) pre-existing growth conditions as defined by initial biomass (low or high); (iv) preexisting stone cover (low or high); (v) final stone cover, modified by the addition or removal of stone to 20% or 80% stone cover; and (vi) experimental protection or non-protection from grazing. 2. 127 species were present, 56 of which were legumes, 21 grasses and 50 other species. The most common species were Trifolium campestre, T. tomentosum, T. stellatum and several species of Bromus and Avena. Overall, the frequency of only a minority of species was changed by environmental differences. 3. Initial growth conditions (as measured by initial biomass) most affected subsequent performance, although the effect was less marked in the second year. Pre-existing stone cover also resulted in large differences in subsequent growth, greater stone cover reducing growth, probably because it was associated with shallow soil and low soil fertility. Experimental addition of stones increased biomass, probably because the stones protected the vegetation from grazing. Individual species differed in their response to both pre-existing and added stone cover, the most frequent species being the most affected. High stocking rate reduced the biomass of most species, and application of P2O5 increased it. Protection from grazing increased plant cover but individual species differed in their response. An abundance of stones was not necessarily harmful, and some species were favoured by their presence. 4. It is concluded that Mediterranean grasslands are less fragile than they appear since they have mechanisms that buffer them from environmental change, These mechanisms include the presence of a long-lived seed bank and certain adaptations such as the production of abundant small seeds and early flowering, but continued over-grazing clearly results in degradation.",The effects of environmental factors on components and attributes of a Mediterranean grassland,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+614854,"We surveyed coral reefs communities before (September 2007 March 2009) and during (September 2009) the 2009-2010 El Nino event on the coast of Oaxaca, southern Mexican Pacific to evaluate community changes associated with the warming event. From May 2009 to December 2010, we recorded positive deviations from the historical in situ sea surface temperature values. There were differences among the coral species Pocillopora damicornis, Pavona gigantea, and Porites panamensis with significant reductions in chlorophyll a and Symbiodinium density during El Nino, resulting in bleaching (>13%) and increase in algal coverage (mainly geniculate coralline algae). Concurrently, echinoderm and fish assemblages also experienced significant modifications; abundances of the sea urchins Eucidaris thouarsii and Centrostephanus coronatus increased during the warming event, whereas Diadema mexicanum declined; meanwhile, fish species such as Thalassoma lucasanum declined in favor of Stegastes acapulcoensis and Haemulon maculicauda during the warming event. During the El Nino event, changes in composition and abundance of echinoderms and fish may have been due to horizontal and/or vertical redistribution of species rather than species mortality or recruitment. The observed changes in coral physiology and consequent modifications in coral, echinoderm, and fish communities highlight that the 2009-2010 El Nino event impacted several levels of biological organization in the coral reefs of southern Mexico, beyond the actual corals themselves. The observed changes add to local stressors associated with coastal development and ultimately threaten the health of the once considered best-developed reef system in the Eastern Pacific.",Reef Community Changes Associated with the 2009-2010 El Nino in the Southern Mexican Pacific,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+401721,"Daily variations in Australian rainfall and surface temperature associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) are documented using observations for the period 1979-2005. The high index polarity of the SAM is characterized by a poleward contraction of the midlatitude westerlies. During winter, the high index polarity of the SAM is associated with decreased daily rainfall over southeast and southwest Australia, but during summer it is associated with increased daily rainfall on the southern east coast of Australia and decreased rainfall in western Tasmania. Variations in the SAM explain up to similar to 15% of the weekly rainfall variance in these regions, which is comparable to the variance accounted for by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, especially during winter. The most widespread temperature anomalies associated with the SAM occur during the spring and summer seasons, when the high index polarity of the SAM is associated with anomalously low maximum temperature over most of central/eastern subtropical Australia. The regions of decreased maximum temperature are also associated with increased rainfall. Implications for recent trends in Australian rainfall and temperature are discussed.",Australian rainfall and surface temperature variations associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+558452,"A study of the trends of climatic and hydrologic variables between 1960 and 2004 was completed for the Massawippi River basin in southern Quebec. Analysis of these trends was used to evaluate possible changes in the spring flood hazard in the basin. This basin is flood-prone, especially during the spring months, portions of the basin having been inundated 95 times during the 20th century. Trends were initially analyzed using plots of cumulative percentage departure from the mean, taken from the raw data. Statistical analyses of the data trends were conducted using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. Tie graphical and statistical results indicate trends toward increasing winter and spring temperatures and a change in precipitation type from snow to rain. Decreases in winter snow accumulations are particularly evident. Graphical analyses show some trend toward decreasing maximum and total river discharges, but the trends are not statistically significant. There is no clear evidence that changes in the climatic variables are causing significant changes in river or flood behaviour. Thus, there is no evidence that changing climatic conditions are creating a greater threat from flooding.",On the Impact of Recent Climate Change on Seasonal Floods-A Case Study from a River Basin in Southern Quebec,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3311805,"The streamflow elasticity concept based on the Budyko framework is widely used in hydrological impact assessment studies. However, in landscapes transformed by human activities, identification of climate contributions to runoff change is difficult due to changing surface properties of river basins. Here, a method is proposed to quantify the effects of changing vegetation cover and included them in the calculus. The simplified scheme to incorporate improved evapotranspiration estimates into the streamflow elasticity framework is introduced and named as ""SSII-Evap"" method. SSII-Evap allows for calculating runoff changes induced by climate taking into account: 1) changes in two climatic variables (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) and 2) changes in land surface conditions responsible for varying actual evapotranspiration. The six-step procedure provides a focused guide for enhancing the original method. The SSII-Evap method introduces a bias correction to the original bivariate framework of streamflow elasticity to climate change. In contrast to the original method, SSII-Evap accounts for the influence of vegetation changes on actual evapotranspiration that is estimated from satellite-derived data. The elaborated customization is helpful for discriminating between climatic and human induced changes in mean annual runoff and is applicable to heavily modified river basins. (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.",SSII-Evap: Simplified scheme to incorporate improved evapotranspiration estimates into the streamflow elasticity framework,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1431784,"Variations in 22 hydrological variables were considered for 8 watersheds in Iceland to analyse the quantitative impact of variations in climate on hydrology during the period 1971-2006. Observed streamflow characteristics were examined together with information about rain/snow fraction, snow storage, snow and glacier melting derived from gridded precipitation and temperature data using a simple temperature-index melt model. The effect of the observed temperature and precipitation variations was examined by comparing subsets of the data containing the 25% coldest and warmest and the 25% wettest and driest years of each series. The seasonality of streamflow of all catchments and timing of hydrological events were found to be sensitive to differences of 1.1-1.4 degrees C in the annual temperature between the warm and cold data subsets. Snow storage was smaller and depleted earlier and the onset of spring snowmelt was shifted several weeks earlier in warm years, while glacial melt volumes increased by 20-40%. These changes caused greater discharge in winter and spring and less discharge in summer, except for glacierized catchments where summer flow was maintained by glacier melt. Annual precipitation was 40-58% greater in the wet compared with the dry data subsets, resulting in substantial seasonal and annual increases of rain, snow storage and snowmelt, streamflow volumes and flood occurrence rate. The seasonal distribution and timing of hydrological events were, however, usually not systematically different. Snow storage and glaciers are found to exert a strong influence on streamflow in Icelandic river catchments, making them sensitive to climate variations. The nature of the hydrological response is not spatially uniform but depends on location, altitude distribution and catchment type.",Sensitivity of Icelandic river basins to recent climate variations,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+798310,"Climate warming is expected to lengthen growing seasons of temperate forest ecosystems and increase gross primary productivity. Simultaneously, warming is expected to increase summer ecosystem respiration, which could offset gains accrued from longer growing seasons. These responses have been observed during anomalously warm years, but the role of future climate change on phenological trade-offs and how they affect net primary productivity (NPP) at regional scales in temperate forests remain unexplored. We simulated scenarios of climate change on monthly forest NPP throughout 18 million hectares of temperate forests in New England, USA, through year 2100. Using an ecophysiological model coupled to a forest landscape model, we simulated scenarios of climate change on monthly NPP. A high emission scenario (RCP 8.5), resulted in longer growing seasons that offset midsummer ecosystem respiration costs and produced greater annual NPP throughout the study landscape compared to simulations using the current climate. In spring and autumn months, temperature was positively associated with greater NPP; in summer months, the relationship was negative. Spatially, the greatest increase in NPP occurred in the warmer southern region under a warm climate scenario with increased precipitation. Under a warm scenario with drier conditions, the greatest increase in NPP occurred in the cooler northern region. Phenological trade-offs will affect NPP of future forests and their potential to serve as a negative feedback to climate change. Barring other limitations, longer growing seasons will offset greater respiratory demands and contribute to increases in NPP throughout the temperate forests of New England in the future. Plain Language Summary Climate change is expected to make growing seasons longer but warmer. This may increase forest growth in the spring and autumn but decrease growth in the summer. We simulated future forest growth in New England over the next 90years. Climate change produced earlier and longer growing seasons that offset declines in growth due to warmer summers. In spring and autumn, temperature was positively associated with greater growth, but in the summer, the relationship was negative. Seasonal trade-offs will affect growth of future forests in New England and their potential to serve as a negative feedback to climate change.",Climate change imposes phenological trade-offs on forest net primary productivity,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1288969,"In a globally warming world, subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid-high latitudes become wetter. In line with this, Southwest China, close to 25A degrees N, is expected to become increasingly prone to drought if annual mean precipitation decreases. However, despite this trend, changes in the temporal distribution of moisture supply might actually result in increased extreme rainfall in the region, whose climate is characterized by distinct dry and wet seasons. Using hourly and daily gauge observations, rainfall intensity changes since 1971 are examined for a network of 142 locations in the region. From the analysis, dry season changes are negligible but wet season changes exhibit a significantly strong downward trend [-2.4% (10 yr)(-1)], particularly during the past 15 years [-17.7% (10 yr)(-1)]. However, the intensity of events during the wettest of 5% hours appears to steadily increase during the whole period [1.4% (10 yr)(-1)], tying in with government statistical reports of recent droughts and flooding. If the opposing trends are a consequence of a warming climate, it is reasonable to expect the contradictory trend to continue with an enhanced risk of flash flooding in coming decades in the region concerned.",Increasing Flash Floods in a Drying Climate over Southwest China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1305526,"This study addresses the impact of projected changes to northeast monsoon on rice yield during rabi season (September-December) in Tamil Nadu by using a three-step approach. First, coarse-resolution global climate models that realistically capture the mean monsoon characteristics were selected. Second, lateral and boundary conditions taken from selected global models' projections are employed to run a high-resolution regional climate model. Third, climate variables from regional model being fed into panel data regression model. For different scenarios and for mid and end of century projections, in conjunction with projected rainfall, a comprehensive assessment is carried out to underscore the sensitivities of maximum and minimum temperatures under different stages of rice production, viz. vegetative, reproductive and maturity phases, and to the concept of growing degree days (GDD, cumulative heat effect). Irrespective of scenarios, in response to an increase in projected monsoon rainfall and surface temperature conditions, the regression model estimates an increase of rice yield of about 10-12% by mid-century and 5-33% by the end of the century. In the regression model, the baseline coefficients were estimated from observed rainfall and temperature available from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The projected changes in rice yield, however, remain unchanged for baseline coefficients estimated from regional climate model outputs (forced by reanalysis products) rainfall and temperature. The robust results obtained here provide confidence to the findings.",Impact of regional climate model projected changes on rice yield over southern India,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+583615,"Plant phenology is one of the strongest indicators of ecological responses to climate change, and altered phenology can have pronounced effects on net primary production, species composition in local communities, greenhouse gas fluxes, and ecosystem processes. Although many studies have shown that aboveground plant phenology advances with warmer temperatures, demonstration of a comparable association for belowground phenology has been lacking because the factors that influence root phenology are poorly understood. Because roots can constitute a large fraction of plant biomass, and root phenology may not respond to warming in the same way as shoots, this represents an important knowledge gap in our understanding of how climate change will influence phenology and plant performance. We review studies of root phenology and provide suggestions to direct future research. Only 29% of examined studies approached root phenology quantitatively, strongly limiting interpretation of results across studies. Therefore, we suggest that researchers emphasize quantitative analyses in future phenological studies. We suggest that root initiation, peak growth, and root cessation may be under different controls. Root initiation and cessation may be more constrained by soil temperature and the timing of carbon availability, whereas the timing of peak root growth may represent trade-offs among competing plant sinks. Roots probably do not experience winter dormancy in the same way as shoots: 89% of the studies that examined winter phenology found evidence of growth during winter months. More research is needed to observe root phenology, and future studies should be careful to capture winter and early season phenology. This should be done quantitatively, with direct observations of root growth utilizing rhizotrons or minirhizotrons.",Root phenology in a changing climate,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+557564,"In this review we detail the impact of climate change on marine productivity, on marine environmental stochasticity and cyclicity, and on the spatio-temporal match-mismatch of seabirds and their prey. We thereby show that global warming has a profound bottom-up impact upon marine top-predators, but that such effects have to be studied in conjunction with the (top-down) impact of human fisheries upon seabird food resources. Further, we propose seabird ecological features, such as memory effects and social constraints, that make them particularly sensitive to rapid environmental change. We provide examples of how seabirds may nonetheless adapt when facing the consequences of climate change. We conclude that our understanding of the spatial ecology of seabirds facing environmental change is still rudimentary, despite its relevance for the conservation of these vulnerable organisms and for the management of marine ecosystems. We define the following research priorities. (1) Determine the factors affecting seabird distribution and movements at sea using biotelemetry, as well as colony dynamics on land. (2) Link seabird distribution patterns to those of their prey, (3) Determine further the role of historical and metapopulation processes in contributing to the dynamics of the spatial distribution of seabirds. (4) Assess phenotypic plasticity and the potential for microevolution within seabird spatial responses to climate change, since both will greatly affect the quality of modelling studies. (5) Adapt existing models to define and predict the impact of climate change onto seabird spatial dynamics. (6) Synthesize all gathered information to define marine protected areas and further conservation schemes, such as capacity reduction of fisheries. This research effort will require maintaining existing long-term monitoring programmes for seabirds, as well as developing new approaches to permit the integration of processes occurring at various scales, in order to be able to fully track the population responses of these long-lived vertebrates to environmental changes.",Spatial ecology and conservation of seabirds facing global climate change: a review,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+555008,"We analyse the new ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) D2 cloud data to ascertain whether or not a connection between cosmic ray flux and cloud cover exists. Our results indicate that only the low-level cloud follows solar activity over the full period, 1983-1994. Using several proxies for solar activity and the radiative forcing for the ISCCP cloud types, we estimate the possible impact that such a solar-terrestrial connection may have on climate. We conclude that, possibly excluding the most recent decades, much of the warming of the past century can be quantitatively accounted for by the direct and indirect effects of solar activity.",The influence of solar activity and cosmic rays on terrestrial clouds and global warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+367096,"The closing of the Central American Seaway (CAS) during the late Pliocene played an important role in global climate change as well as variation in surface and deep ocean paleoceanography. Restriction in the mixing of Pacific Ocean water with Atlantic Ocean water through the CAS ultimately led to the enhanced production of high salinity warm Gulf Stream water which flowed poleward and caused the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG) as well as increased production of deep Northern Component Water (NCW). The timing of the final closure of the CAS is still a topic of debate. The present study pursued on planktic foraminifera and carbon isotopic variation in planktic foraminifera from the Blake Ridge to understand the variation in surface and deep ocean paleoceanography and their linkages to the timing of the closing of the CAS. Planktic faunal turnover at around 2.2 Ma along with the increased production of NCW at around 2.4 Ma is considered as the ceasing period of the CAS. Prior to 2.2 Ma, the dominance of Globigerina bulloides, Orbulina universa and Globigerinoides ruber indicates the existence of the opening between the two Americas and invasion of Pacific surface water into the Atlantic through this gateway. It is proposed that during this time the studied ODP Hole 994C was under the influence of highly productive gyre water as observed by the dominance of G. bulloides and depleted delta C-13 of Neogloboquadrina dutertrei (delta C-13(Nd)). The dominance of N. dutertrei and Globorotalia truncatulinoides with enriched delta C-13(Nd) from 2.2 to 1.2 Ma indicates the presence of high salinity-less productive surface water over the studied Hole 994C. The closing of the CAS restricted the mixing of two ocean waters and thus the intensity of the Gulf Stream increased significantly with the dominance of NCW at the deeper level. Increased cooling and intensified Gulf Stream shifted the gyre water eastward and deepened the thermocline, and thus the studied hole was under gyre margin/Gulf Stream water during 22-1.2 Ma. The Mid Pleistocene Transition (1.2 to 0.8 Ma) is marked by the presence of high productive gyre water (depleted delta C-13(Nd)) over Hole 994C. The dominance of all the species with highly variable delta C-13(Nd) and delta O-18(Nd) during the last 0.4 Ma indicates that fluctuations in surface water perhaps are linked to increased NHG. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Surface and deep-water variability at the Blake Ridge, NW Atlantic during the Plio-Pleistocene is linked to the closing of the Central American Seaway",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+746661,"Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway.",Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+53790,"Potential global climate change impacts on hydrology pose a threat to water resources systems throughout the world. The California water system is especially vulnerable to global warming due to its dependence on mountain snow accumulation and the snowmelt process. Since 1983, more than 60 studies have investigated climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources in California. These studies can be categorized in three major fields: (1) Studies of historical trends of streamflow and snowpack in order to determine if there is any evidence of climate change in the geophysical record; (2) Studies of potential future predicted effects of climate change on streamflow and; (3) Studies that use those predicted changes in natural runoff to determine their economic, ecologic, or institutional impacts. In this paper we review these studies with an emphasis on methodological procedures. We provide for each category of studies a summary of significant conclusions and potential areas for future work.",The evolution of climate change impact studies on hydrology and water resources in California,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+737479,"How temperate trees respond to drier summers, as predicted by climate change models for parts of Europe and eastern North America, will depend on the drought susceptibility of the root systems. We investigated the importance of the genetic constitution for the belowground drought response of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), in four populations from regions differing in precipitation (520-970 mm year(-1)). Saplings were grown at ample (10 vol.%; well-watered) or reduced (5 vol.%; drought treatment) soil water content in the Gottingen Rhizolab Facility for two consecutive summers, and the responses of fine root biomass, root morphology, root depth distribution, and fine root production and turnover were investigated by a combined mini-rhizotron and harvest technique approach. In the drought treatment, total root mass per plant was reduced by 30-40% as a result of: (1) a reduction in median fine root lifespan by roughly 50% and hence an increase in fine root turnover; and (2) a 10-fold reduction in relative fine root growth rate (productivity per standing root biomass). The root: shoot ratio did not increase with drought. Although beech plants originating from drier climates tended to reduce their root biomass in response to drought less than those from wetter climates, analyses of variance revealed no significant influence of genotype on root mass, morphology, growth rate or turnover. However, most fine root traits showed marked differences between the well-watered and drought treatments. We conclude that beech saplings respond to summer drought primarily by shortening root lifespan, whereas root system structure and root: shoot carbon partitioning pattern are unaltered. Beech fine root growth and turnover exhibited high phenotypic plasticity, but genotypic variation was of minor importance. In contrast, genotype had a strong influence on leaf and shoot morphogenesis and growth.",Genotypic variation and phenotypic plasticity in the drought response of fine roots of European beech,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+132699,"We investigated the climate response of three Siberian taiga species, Larix cajanderi, Picea obovata, and Pinus sylvestris, across a latitudinal gradient in central Siberia. We hypothesized that warming is more frequently associated with increased growth for evergreen conifers (P. obovata and P. sylvestris) than for L. cajanderi, and for northern than for southern sites; we also hypothesized that increased growth is associated with a positive trend in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). In mixed stands, growth of L. cajanderi and P. obovata increased over time, but the larger growth increases in P. obovata may presage a shift in competitive balance between these species. Climate response varied among and within populations of all species, and positive responses to temperature prevailed at northern sites, where trees grew faster in years with warm early summers. Negative responses to warming declined along the south to north latitudinal gradient. We observed considerable variability in climate response within populations which even exceeded that among species or sites. Tree response to climate was correlated with NDVI trends, indicating that patterns of tree-growth response to climate were indicative of a coherent landscape-scale response to warming. Our findings suggest that increased productivity with warming is likely only in the northern reaches of the Siberian taiga. An increased prevalence of evergreen conifers in areas currently dominated by deciduous Larix species also seems likely.",A latitudinal gradient in tree growth response to climate warming in the Siberian taiga,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+201920,"The objective of this study was to examine the trends of changes in streamflow in a watershed of the Loess Plateau, where a series of soil conservation measures were implemented since the late 1950s. Both parametric and non-parametric Mann-Kendall test were used to identify the trends in hydrologic variables over the last 50 years, and it showed significant downward trends in annual runoff, surface runoff and baseflow. The Pettitt's test was used to detect the change points of runoff, which occurred in 1973, and the whole 50-year records could be divided into contrast (from 1957 to 1973) and treated (from 1974 to 2006) periods. It was observed that the average annual runoff during treated period reduced by 60%, surface runoff and baseflow reduced by 65% and 55%, respectively in comparing with the contrast period. But the proportion of baseflow to total runoff showed a significant increasing from 0.57 to 0.63. Seasonal runoff also showed decreased trend with the highest reduction occurring in summer and lowest in winter. Annual precipitation in whole period showed no significant trend, so the changes in hydrologic variables were induced by conservation measures. Comparison of the flow duration curves for the two periods showed that reductions in high and low flows varied greatly. Results showed that conservation measures have resulted obvious changes in the hydrologic variables in a watershed of Loess Plateau.","Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Conservation Measures on Streamflow Responses in a Watershed of the Loess Plateau, China",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1286327,"This study investigates trends and the effects of the interannual and intraseasonal climate variability on the extreme weather of Brazil's capital city Distrito Federal (DF). This area is highly vulnerable to climate variability, having suffered from droughts and floods that affected the drinking water supply and agriculture. We perform trend analysis of 12 rainfall-related indices from 13 ground observation stations and assess the influence of El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) on rainfall totals and extreme indices. The trend analysis confirms: (a) the increase of the dry spells length and (b) the anticipation of the onset of dry periods at regional level. That is also true when considering dry spells in the rainy season, a hazard known in the agriculture sector as veranico. On the other hand, extreme wet conditions became less severe in the last decades. Supressed monthly rainfall conditions, and some wet indices, are associated with La Nina episodes. The MJO's intraseasonal variability seems to play a substantial role in DF's climate. MJO phases 3, 7 and 8 are associated to enhanced rainfall conditions; whereas rainfall is supressed during phase 5. Moreover, dry spells during the rainy season, or veranico, often coincide with MJO phase 5. When combined with ENSO, the basic response of rainfall to MJO activity changes substantially showing statistically significant influence of El Nino on phases 2 and 8; while La Nina on phases 4, 6 and 7. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the ongoing changes in extreme climate as well as the influence of natural climate variability on local's climate, information that can be used in the management of water resources and land use of DF.","Extreme rainfall indices in Distrito Federal, Brazil: Trends and links with El Nino southern oscillation and Madden-Julian oscillation",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1331324,"The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer & wetter, and warmer & drier) and weather (year-to-year variability) was determined for four existing landscape-fire-succession models (EMBYR, FIRESCAPE, LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) and a new model implemented in the LAMOS modelling shell (LAMOS(DS)). Sensitivity was measured as the variance in area burned explained by each of the four factors, and all of the interactions amongst them, in a standard generalised linear modelling analysis. Modelled area burned was most sensitive to climate and variation in weather, with four models sensitive to each of these factors and three models sensitive to their interaction. Models generally exhibited a trend of increasing area burned from observed, through warmer and wetter, to warmer and drier climates with a 23-fold increase in area burned, on average, from the observed to the warmer, drier climate. Area burned was sensitive to terrain for FIRESCAPE and fuel pattern for EMBYR. These results demonstrate that the models are generally more sensitive to variation in climate and weather as compared with terrain complexity and fuel pattern, although the sensitivity to these latter factors in a small number of models demonstrates the importance of representing key processes. The models that represented fire ignition and spread in a relatively complex fashion were more sensitive to changes in all four factors because they explicitly simulate the processes that link these factors to area burned.","Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+332366,"Habitat degradation and fishing are major drivers of temporal and spatial changes in fish communities. The independent effects of these drivers are well documented, but the relative importance and interaction between fishing and habitat shifts is poorly understood, particularly in complex systems such as coral reefs. To assess the combined and relative effects of fishing and habitat we examined the composition of fish communities on patch reefs across a gradient of high to low structural complexity in fished and unfished areas of the Ningaloo Marine Park, Western Australia. Biomass and species richness of fish were positively correlated with structural complexity of reefs and negatively related to macroalgal cover. Total abundance of fish was also positively related to structural complexity, however this relationship was stronger on fished reefs than those where fishing is prohibited. The interaction between habitat condition and fishing pressure is primarily due to the high abundance of small bodied planktivorous fish on fished reefs. However, the influence of management zones on the abundance and biomass of predators and target species is small, implying spatial differences in fishing pressure are low and unlikely to be driving this interaction. Our results emphasise the importance of habitat in structuring reef fish communities on coral reefs especially when gradients in fishing pressure are low. The influence of fishing effort on this relationship may however become more important as fishing pressure increases. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Relative and combined effects of habitat and fishing on reef fish communities across a limited fishing gradient at Ningaloo,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+416983,"Increasing sea surface temperature (SST) and its consequences on marine ecosystems are widely discussed. Andaman Sea witnessed a few bleaching events during 1998, 2002 and 2005. The present study was taken up to assess the extent of bleaching during 2010 in selected reef sites in the Andaman through line intercept transect survey. It was found that the fully bleached corals as a percentage of total coral cover were maximum at Havelock Island (69.49), followed by South Button Island (67.28), Nicolson Island (56.45), Red Skin Island (43.39), North Bay (41.65) and Chidiyatapu (36.54). Branching corals were the worst affected, whereas the massive corals were found to have relatively withstood the elevated SST. The status of reefs and the variability in bleaching with the progression of SST with respect to different coral species are discussed.",Elevated sea surface temperature during May 2010 induces mass bleaching of corals in the Andaman,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1294661,"Climate change has already increased the occurrence of extreme temperature events, which has restricted the production and development of winter wheat. To evaluate the effects of freezing temperature and duration on winter wheat survival and grain yield, two years of controlled freezing experiments were conducted under different freezing temperatures and durations. Three freezing temperatures (T1, T2 and T3) were implemented in these experiments, and soil minimum temperatures of - 14 degrees C, - 17 degrees C and - 20 degrees C were designated for T1, T2 and T3, respectively. The freezing durations were designed as 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 days under T1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 days under T2, and 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 days under T3. The effects of freezing duration on the mortality of plants and tillers, as well as its effects on the grain yield per pot (GYPP), were much more serious under lower temperature. For every 1-day increase in freezing duration, GYPP decreased by 3.3% and 8.4% under T1 and T2, respectively, while the spike number per pot (SNPP) decreased by 4.4% and 21.6% under Ti and T2, respectively. When analyzing the combined effects of freezing temperature and duration, we introduced freezing degree days (FDD), which uses soil minimum temperatures below a threshold of - 12 degrees C to represent the magnitude of the exposure to freezing temperature and duration. For every 1 degrees C.d increase in FDD, the mortality of plants and tillers increased by 1.0% and L4%, respectively. The interaction between freezing temperature and duration had a great effect on GYPP (0.5-1.2%/degrees C.d), while SNPP was more sensitive to freezing stress than GYPP and decreased at a rate of 2.3-2.9%/degrees C.d. An increasing trend in grain number per spike (GNPS) was clearly observed as FDD increased in 2014-2015, while freezing stress during the overwintering period had no direct influence on thousand-grain weight (TGW). The variation in GYPP was mainly caused by the grain number per pot (GNPP = SNPP x GNPS). The contribution of SNPP to the variation in GYPP was greater than that of GNPS or TGW under mild temperature, while GNPS contributed more under severe temperature. The results of this study provide data support for the improvement of crop models when simulating the effect of temperature stress on grain crops, and they can be consulted to predict freezing injury during winter wheat production.",Effect of freezing temperature and duration on winter survival and grain yield of winter wheat,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+36487,"Lake sediment records of vegetation, climate, and fire history indicate dynamic responses to climate changes of the past 2000 years. Studies of nitrogen (N) mineralization and forest structure within catchments of the same lakes suggest that responses may represent complex direct and indirect effects of climate on vegetation. Existing patterns in plant composition, mineralization rates, and topography indicate that spatial variability is influenced by microclimate and drainage. Xeric southwest aspects have low mineralization rates, high fire frequency, and support species that tightly cycle N. During the past 2000 years, vegetation, fire, and sediment indicators of drought have changed several times but may not have influenced nutrient loading to lakes. -from Author","Fire, climate change, and forest processes during the past 2000 years",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+183596,"Using long-term data of 149 warm alien species since 1924, we show that the introduction of warm and tropical alien species has been exacerbated by the observed warming of the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The phenomenon has accelerated after an abrupt shift in both regional and global temperatures that we detect around 1998, leading to a 150% increase in the annual mean rate of species entry after this date. Abrupt rising temperature since the end of the 1990s has modified the potential thermal habitat available for warm-water species, facilitating their settlement at an unexpectedly rapid rate. The speed of alien species spreading and response to global warming is apparently much faster than temperature increase itself, presenting an important warning for the future of Mediterranean Sea biodiversity. In addition to the sea warming, other factors that enable and enhance biological invasions, such as salinity increase and oceanographic forcing, are also discussed.",Global climate change amplifies the entry of tropical species into the Eastern Mediterranean Sea,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+694618,"A previous study interpreted extremely C-13-depleted excursions of planktonic and benthic foraminifera in last glacial sediments (17,500 to 25,400 cal years B. P.) of the core retrieved from off Shimokita Peninsula and off Hokkaido, Japan, as evidence for periodic releases of methane, arising from the dissociation of methane hydrate. To better understand the formation process of the C-13-depleted excursions, we conducted high-resolution natural radiocarbon measurements and biogeochemical analyses. We found highly depleted 13 C excursions ranging from -10.2% to -1.6% and -6.8% to -1.6% in planktonic and benthic foraminifera, respectively. Most of the foraminiferal tests in these horizons were brown, most likely as a result of postdepositional alteration, reflecting the formation of authigenic carbonate on the surface of tests. These alterations were also supported by high levels of Mg-calcite and the acid-leaching test for anomalous foraminifera. To evaluate the carbon sources in the altered foraminifera tests, we quantified the relative contributions of C-14-free methane-derived carbon sources to the formation of authigenic carbonates in foraminifera with depleted 13 C excursions using a coupled mass balance isotopic model (C-14/C and C-13/C-12). The radiocarbon ages of both planktonic and benthic C-13-depleted foraminifera were approximately 600 to 2000 years older than those of normal tests from nearby horizons. The relative contributions of authigenic carbonates derived from the methane oxidizing process reached to -22 wt% for planktonic foraminifera and -15 wt% for benthic foraminifera. The delta C-13 values of methane calculated from the mass balance model were between -29% and -68% for planktonic foraminifera and between -40% and -108% for benthic foraminifera, consistent with delta C-13 values reported for thermogenic and abiogenic methane in global methane hydrate reservoirs. These data consistently suggest that methane-related drastic environmental change occurred in the horizons that included delta C-13 anomalies. This study provides important information for interpreting geological records of the methane hydrate instability associated with climate.",Radiocarbon-based carbon source quantification of anomalous isotopic foraminifera in last glacial sediments in the western North Pacific,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+273068,"This paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of extreme seasonal events in the Amazon region, focusing on drought and floods. The review includes a history of droughts and floods in the past, in the present and some discussions on future extremes in the context of climate change and its impacts on the Amazon region. Several extreme hydrological events, some of them characterized as once in a century', have been reported in the Amazon region during the last decade. While abundant rainfall in various sectors of the basin has determined extreme floods along the river's main stem in 1953, 1989, 1999, 2009, 2012-2015, deficient rainfall in 1912, 1926, 1963, 1980, 1983, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005 and 2010 has caused anomalously low river levels, and an increase in the risk and number of fires in the region, with consequences for humans. This is consistent with changes in the variability of the hydrometeorology of the basin and suggests that extreme hydrological events have been more frequent in the last two decades. Some of these intense/reduced rainfalls and subsequent floods/droughts were associated (but not exclusively) with La Nina/El Nino events. In addition, moisture transport anomalies from the tropical Atlantic into Amazonia, and from northern to southern Amazonia alter the water cycle in the region year-to-year. We also assess the impacts of such extremes on natural and human systems in the region, considering ecological, economic and societal impacts in urban and rural areas, particularly during the recent decades. In the context of the future climate change, studies show a large range of uncertainty, but suggest that drought might intensify through the 21st century.","Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+1360486,"Background Seasonal variations in mortality due to cardiovascular disease have been demonstrated in many countries, with the highest levels occurring during the coldest months of the year. It has been suggested that this can be explained by cold climate. In this study, we examined the relationship between mortality and two different climatic factors in two densely populated areas (Dublin, Ireland and Oslo/ Akershus, Norway). Methods Meteorological data (mean daily air temperatures and wind speed) and registered daily mortality data for three groups of cardiovascular disease for the period 1985-1994 were obtained for the two respective areas. The daily mortality ratio for both men and women of 60 years and older was calculated from the mortality data. The wind chill temperature equivalent was calculated from the Siple and Passels formula. Results The seasonal variations in mortality were greater in Dublin than in Oslo/Akershus, with mortality being highest in winter. This pattern was similar to that previously shown for the two respective countries as a whole. There was a negative correlation between mortality and both air temperature and wind chill temperature equivalent for all three groups of diseases. The slopes of the linear regression lines describing the relationship between mortality and air temperature were a lot steeper for the Irish data than for the Norwegian data. However, the difference between the steepness of the linear regression lines for the relationship between mortality and wind chill temperature equivalent was considerably less between the two areas. This can be explained by the fact that Dublin is a much windier area than Oslo/Akershus. Conclusion The results of this study demonstrate that the inclusion of two climatic factors rather than just one changes the impression of the relationship between climate and cardiovascular disease mortality. (C) 2000 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.",The relationship between mortality caused by cardiovascular diseases and two climatic factors in densely populated areas in Norway and Ireland,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2355765,"On the basis of pollen analysis of profiles from three localities on Wolin Island (southern Baltic), the natural diversity of the vegetation and the anthropogenic changes since the 5th century AD is presented. Attention is drawn to the important part played by the town and port, situated here in the early Middle Ages, in the changes to the natural environment of the whole island. It was found that because of the poor soils on the island, corn probably had to be imported. Preliminary results of the plant macrofossil analysis of the archaeological profile from the early medieval port's quayside, indicate that corn from southern areas was shipped to Wolin; evidence for this is the presence in the fossil material of a group of species from the Caucalidion alliance.",THE LAST 1500 YEARS ON WOLIN ISLAND (NW POLAND) IN THE LIGHT OF PALEOBOTANICAL STUDIES,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1844750,"This study assesses the impact of the land use and climate changes between 1967-2008 on the streamflow and sediment yield in Tapacura River basin (Brazil) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The model was calibrated and validated by comparing simulated mean monthly streamflow with observed long-term mean monthly streamflow. The obtained R-2 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values to streamflow data were respectively 0.82 and 0.71 for 1967-1974, and 0.84 and 0.82 for 1995-2008. The results show that the land cover and climate change affected the basin hydrology, decreasing the streamflow and sediment yield (227.39mm and 18.21 t ha(-1) yr(-1) for 1967-1974 and 182.86mm and 7.67 t ha(-1) yr(-1) for 1995-2008). The process changes are arising mainly due to the land cover/use variability, but, mainly due to the decreasing in the rainfall rates during 1995-2008 when compared with the first period analysed, which in turn decreased the streamflow and sediments during the wet seasons and reduced the base flow during the dry seasons.","Land cover and climate change effects on streamflow and sediment yield: a case study of Tapacura River basin, Brazil",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+322000,"Potential increases of phytoplankton concentrations in river systems due to global warming and changing climate could pose a serious threat to the anthropogenic use of surfacewaters. Nevertheless, the extent of the effect of climatic alterations on phytoplankton concentrations in river systems has not yet been analysed in detail. In this study, we assess the impact of a change in precipitation and temperature on river phytoplankton concentration by means of a physically-based model. A scenario-neutral methodology has been employed to evaluate the effects of climate alterations on flow, phosphorus concentration and phytoplankton concentration of the River Thames (southern England). In particular, five groups of phytoplankton are considered, representing a range of size classes and pigment phenotypes, under three different land-use/land-management scenarios to assess their impact on phytoplankton population levels. Themodel results are evaluatedwithin the framework of future climate projections, using the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) for the 2030s. The results of the model demonstrate that an increase in average phytoplankton concentration due to climate change is highly likely to occur, with the magnitude varying depending on the location along the River Thames. Cyanobacteria show significant increases under future climate change and land use change. An expansion of intensive agriculture accentuates the growth in phytoplankton, especially in the upper reaches of the River Thames. However, an optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategy, which combines reduction of fertiliser application and phosphorus removal from wastewater, can help to reduce this increase in phytoplankton concentration, and in some cases, compensate for the effect of rising temperature. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+624228,"1. An old-growth mesic forest in northern Michigan, USA, experienced an unusually intense storm in July 2002. Permanent inventory plots and a 2.9-ha mapped stand allow comparison of effects of this rare disturbance with patterns of 'baseline' mortality. 2. Tree mortality attributable to immediate effects of the storm was of similar magnitude to mortality over the previous decade, amounting to about 9% of basal area and 7% of stem density (mean of 88 inventory plots). 3. Storm mortality differed from baseline mortality in patterns related to species and size. Tsuga canadensis suffered little mortality of either type. Betula alleghaniensis had high baseline mortality in all size classes, but very low storm mortality. Acer spp. and Fagus grandifolia showed similar overall levels of baseline and storm mortality, but storm mortality was higher for larger stems. 4. Spatial patterns of mortality differed between baseline and storm-caused disturbance, with storm mortality patterns related to composition and to substrate variation over the stand. Baseline canopy mortality was hyperdispersed at local scales, but mortality due to the storm was strongly clustered at distances up to 30 m. 5. Properties of rare, intermediate disturbances cannot be predicted by simply scaling up patterns due to frequent, less intense, events. They may have distinctive influences on community dynamics, countering trends towards dominance by shade-tolerant species, generating demographic and spatial structure in the canopy, and distinctively affecting understorey environment. 6. These results suggest that climate change may induce changes in forest ecosystems by changing disturbance patterns even when species are not close to limits of physiological tolerance. Forest management for natural regeneration may need to take the effects of rare, intermediate disturbance into account.",Intermediate disturbance in a late-successional hemlock-northern hardwood forest,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+979494,"Paralic carbonaceous series intercalated among calcareous shelf sediments have seldom been investigated. During the early Eocene, calcareous and siliciclastic sediments were deposited on a wide shelf in front of low-reliefed hinterland in the Al Khawd region in NE Oman. The siliciclastic-calcareous sediments originated from strongly reworked debris of the Arabic Shield. The underlying Semail Ophiolite did not act as a direct source of debris but provided some heat to increase the maturity of carbonaceous rocks and modify the isotope signal of the calcareous minerals in the Rusayl Formation. A multidisciplinary approach involving sedimentology, mineralogy, chemistry, coal petrography and paleontology resulted in the establishment of nine stratigraphic lithofacies units and provides the reader with a full picture from deposition of the mixed carbonaceous-calcareous-siliciclastic rocks to the most recent stages of post-depositional alteration of the Paleogene formations. The calcareous Jafnayn Formation (lithofacies unit 1) developed in a subtidal to intertidal regime, influenced episodically by storms. Deepening of the calcareous shelf towards younger series was ground to a halt by paleosols developing on a disconformity (lithofacies unit 11) and heralding the onset of the Rusayl Formation. The stratigraphic lithofacies units III and IV reflect mangrove swamps which from time to time were flooded through washover fans from the open sea. The presence of Spinozonocolpites and the taxon Avicennia, which today belong to a coastal marsh vegetational community, furnish palynological evidence to the idea of extensive mangrove swamps in the Rusayl Formation [El Beialy, S.Y., 1998. Stratigraphic and palaeonenvironmental significance of Eocene palynomorphs from the Rusayl Shale Formation, Al Khawd, northern Oman. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 102, 249-258]. During the upper Rusayl Formation (lithofacies units V through VII) algal mats episodically flooded by marine incursions make up a greater deal of the sedimentary record than mangrove swamps. Terra rossa paleosols mark the end of accumulation of organic material (OM) and herald supratidal conditions at the passage of Rusayl Formation into the overlying Seeb Formation. In the subtidal-supratidal cycles of lithofacies unit VIII the terra rossa horizons are thining upwards and become gradually substituted for by deep-water middle ramp sediments of lithofacies unit IX Framboidal pyrite, (ferroan) dolomite with very little siderite are indicative of an early diagenetic alteration stage I under rather moderate temperatures of formation.","The Eocene Rusayl Formation, Oman, carbonaceous rocks in calcareous shelf sediments: Environment of deposition, alteration and hydrocarbon potential",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+28195,"An emission inventory is a database on the amount of pollutants released into the atmosphere. The anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are detrimental to the environment and the ecosystems. Therefore, reducing emissions is crucial. One key issue is to inventory these emissions, and consequently databases on anthropogenic emissions will be available for making decisions on implementing suitable mitigation strategies. Such investigations aim at developing national emissions inventory for domestic livestock and to identify possible abatement techniques in order to reduce these emissions. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to introduce and define the emissions inventories, review the emission inventory guides, introduce the relation between the emissions inventory and livestock buildings and manure stores and the relevant emission factors and algorithms, review the tools for processing the emissions inventories (e.g. models, software), show the evaluation and improvement methods of emissions inventories, review the emissions abatement techniques, and present examples and paradigms of available national emissions inventories for several countries.",Emissions inventory of greenhouse gases and ammonia from livestock housing and manure management,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2353724,"Aerial surveys of Caspian seals on the winter ice field in Kazakhstan territorial waters were carried out in February 2005 and 2006 to assess the annual pup production for the species and natural predation on newborn pups. Estimated pup production was 21 063 in 2005 and 16 905 in 2006 (including an estimated figure for pups born in Russian territory in each year). The breeding population size of approximately 20 000 females is much less than published estimates from the late 1980s. Eagles were the principal natural predators of pups. Commercial icebreaker routes passed through areas of dense pup concentrations in 2006, although not in 2005. Our findings have important implications for the development of conservation strategies for the species. Natural mortality, loss to predators, and, more important, the current hunting quota substantially exceed the recruitment of the Caspian seal population. Anthropogenic sources of mortality should be managed to avoid further declines in the species.",Pup production and breeding distribution of the Caspian seal (Phoca caspica) in relation to human impacts,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3266327,"Projected increases in drought duration and intensity under climate change considerably affect aboveground productivity (ANPP) and associated process variables (photosynthesis rates (P-n), stomatal conductance (g(s)), soil respiration (Rs) and soil water content (SWC)). Although ANPP has been extensively studied across the ecosystems, there is a little consensus on how the spatiotemporal patterns of ANPP will be altered with increasing drought stress. Here, we present a global meta-analysis of ANPP and the four variables (610 observations from 78 studies) for drought duration, intensity and their combination. Forest-ANPP had stronger negative responses to long-term drought (34.44%; >= 4 years) than short-term drought (10.78%; <= 1 year) and decreased more in Mediterranean forests than in tropical forests. Decreases in P-n and g(s) were strongest under long-term moderate drought. In the short term, Rs increased by 5.66% under light drought, but decreased by 14.12% and 28.43% under moderate and severe droughts. Grass-ANPP showed a nonlinear decrease with extended duration and the rate slowed. Within light to severe intensities, ANPP decreased linearly, but became stable under extreme condition. In the short term, ANPP reduced more seriously with increasing drought intensity (12.01%-30.34%). With aggravation of drought stress, the reductions in Rs and SWC increased. There was significant heterogeneity in grassland responses to drought stress. The greatest decreases in ANPP, P-n and g(s) were observed in North America, and the reductions in Rs and SWC were greater in Western Europe. Shrub-ANPP showed stronger negative responses to long-term moderate drought (12.59%). P-n and g(s) declined significantly with increasing drought intensity. Variations in Rs to drought duration, intensity and their combination were more complex, either showing positive or negative responses (dominated). Synthesis. Forest-ANPP shows high sensitivity to long-term moderate drought, whereas grass-ANPP is more responsive to short-term drought. Compared to forests and grasslands, shrub-ANPP exhibits less sensitivity to droughts. Different responses of ecosystems were predominantly driven by physiological mechanisms or species differences in turnover time, community architecture and drought adaptation strategies. Given these findings, future studies should focus on nonlinear patterns, response thresholds and adaptation mechanisms when predicting and modeling feedback between ecosystems and climate change.",A synthesis of ecosystem aboveground productivity and its process variables under simulated drought stress,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+566745,"Climate change can affect organisms both directly, by affecting their physiology, growth, and behaviour(1), and indirectly, for example through effects on ecosystem structure and function(1,2). For ectotherms, or 'cold-blooded' animals, warming will directly affect their metabolism, with growth rates in temperate species predicted to increase initially as temperatures rise, but then decline as individuals struggle to maintain cardiac function and respiration in the face of increased metabolic demands(3,4). We provide evidence consistent with this prediction for a marine fish (Cheilodactylus spectabilis) in the Tasman Sea; one of the most rapidly warming regions of the Southern Hemisphere ocean(5). We estimated changes in the species' growth rate over a 90-year period using otoliths-bony structures that fish use for orientation and detection of movement- and compared these changes to temperature trends across the species' distribution. Increasing temperatures coincide with increased growth for populations in the middle of the species range, but with reduced growth for those at the warm northern edge of the species' distribution, indicating that temperatures may have already reached levels associated with increased metabolic costs. If warming continues, the direct metabolic effects of increasing temperatures on this species may lead to declining productivity and range contraction.",Tolerance limit for fish growth exceeded by warming waters,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2089985,"The number of individual plants and colonies of the two native Antarctic vascular plants, Colobanthus quitensis and Deschampsia antarctica, have been monitored between 1964 and 1990 on three islands in the Argentine Islands archipelago, western Antarctic Peninsula. The Deschampsia population increased by nearly 25-fold and Colobanthus by over 5-fold. Furthermore there was a considerable increase in the number of Deschampsia colonies, although no additional colonies of Colobanthus were recorded. An analysis of Colobanthus plant size in 1974 and 1990 indicated that recruitment was probably irregular although the population structure remained essentially the same. The reasons for this and the increases in population size of both species are discussed. The relatively rapid increase in the abundance and distribution of these species is considered to be a response to the increasing summer air temperatures being experienced in the region of the maritime Antarctic. In particular, there is probably improved success in reproductive behavior resulting from warmer and/or longer growing seasons.","RAPID POPULATION INCREASES IN NATIVE VASCULAR PLANTS IN THE ARGENTINE ISLANDS, ANTARCTIC PENINSULA",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1512052,"Potential impacts of pronounced decadal-scale variations in the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) that tend to be confined to the subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) upon seasonally varying atmospheric states are investigated, by using 48-yr observational data and a 120-yr simulation with an ocean atmosphere coupled general circulation model (CGCM). SST fields based on in situ observations and the ocean component of the CGCM have horizontal resolutions of 2.0 degrees and 0.5 degrees, respectively, which can reasonably resolve frontal SST gradient across the SAFZ. Both the observations and CGCM simulation provide a consistent picture between SST anomalies in the SAFZ yielded by its decadal-scale meridional displacement and their association with atmospheric anomalies. Correlated with SST anomalies persistent in the SAFZ from fall to winter, a coherent decadal-scale signal in the wintertime atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific starts emerging in November and develops into an equivalent barotropic anomaly pattern similar to the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. The PNA-like signal with the weakened (enhanced) surface Aleutian low correlated with positive (negative) SST anomalies in the SAFZ becomes strongest and most robust in January, under the feedback forcing from synoptic-scale disturbances migrating along the Pacific storm track that shifts northward (southward) in accord with the oceanic SAFZ. This PNA-like signal, however, breaks down in February, which is suggestive of a particular sensitivity of that anomaly pattern to subtle differences in the background climatological-mean state. Despite its collapse in February, the PNA-like signal recurs the next January. This subseasonal evolution of the signal suggests that the PNA-like anomaly pattern may develop as a response to the persistent SST anomalies that are maintained mainly through ocean dynamics.",Seasonal Evolutions of Atmospheric Response to Decadal SST Anomalies in the North Pacific Subarctic Frontal Zone: Observations and a Coupled Model Simulation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1906225,"Climate change directly impacts the hydrological cycle via increasing temperatures and seasonal precipitation shifts, which are variable at local scales. The water resources of the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) account for almost 40% and 15% of all water resources used in the Yangtze Basin and China, respectively. Future climate change and the possible responses of surface runoff in this region are urgent issues for China's water security and sustainable socioeconomic development. This study evaluated the potential impacts of future climate change on the hydrological regimes (high flow (Q(5)), low flow (Q(95)), and mean annual runoff (MAR)) of the UYRB using global climate models (GCMs) and a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. We used the eight bias-corrected GCM outputs from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to examine the effects of climate change under two future representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The direct variance method was adopted to analyze the contributions of precipitation and temperature to future Q(5), Q(95), and MAR. The results showed that the equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) can considerably reduce biases in the temperature and precipitation fields of CMIP5 models and that the EDCDF captured the extreme values and spatial pattern of the climate fields. Relative to the baseline period (1961-1990), precipitation is projected to slightly increase in the future, while temperature is projected to considerably increase. Furthermore, Q(5), Q(95), and MAR are projected to decrease. The projected decreases in the median value of Q(95) were 21.08% to 24.88% and 16.05% to 26.70% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively; these decreases were larger than those of MAR and Q(5). Temperature increases accounted for more than 99% of the projected changes, whereas precipitation had limited projected effects on Q(95) and MAR. These results indicate the drought risk over the UYRB will increase considerably in the future.","Projected Effects of Climate Change on Future Hydrological Regimes in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+501046,"We investigated the individual and combined effects of elevated CO2 concentration and fertilization on above-ground growth of three poplar species (Populus alba L. Clone 2AS-11, P. nigra L. Clone Jean Pourtet and P. x euramericana Clone I-214) growing in a short-rotation coppice culture for two growing seasons after coppicing. Free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) stimulated the number of shoots per stool, leaf area index measured with a fish-eye-type plant canopy analyzer (LAI(optical)), and annual leaf production, but did not affect dominant shoot height or canopy productivity index. Comparison of LAI(optical) with LAI estimates from litter collections and from allometric relationships showed considerable differences. The increase in biomass in response to FACE was caused by an initial stimulation of absolute and relative growth rates, which disappeared after the first growing season following coppicing. An ontogenetic decline in growth in the FACE treatment, together with strong competition inside the dense plantation, may have caused this decrease. Fertilization did not influence aboveground growth, although some FACE responses were more pronounced in fertilized trees. A species effect was observed for most parameters.","Elevated CO2 concentration, fertilization and their interaction: growth stimulation in a short-rotation poplar coppice (EUROFACE)",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+110780,"Soil and water conservation measures including terracing, afforestation, construction of sediment-trapping dams, and the Grain for Green Program' have been extensively implemented in the Yanhe River watershed, of the Loess Plateau, China, over the last six decades, and have resulted in large-scale land use and land cover changes. This study examined the trends and shifts in streamflow regime over the period of 1953-2010 and relates them to changes in land use and soil and water conservation and to the climatic factors of precipitation and air temperature. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Pettitt test were used to identify trends and shifts in streamflow and base flow. A method based on precipitation and potential evaporation was used to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and changes in non-climate factors changes on annual streamflow. A significant decrease (p=0.01) in annual streamflow was observed related to a significant change point in 1996, mostly because of significant decreases in streamflow (p=0.01) in the July to September periods in subsequent years. The annual base flow showed no significant trend from 1953 to 2010 and no change point year, mostly because there were no significant seasonal trends, except for significant decreases (p=0.05) in the July to September periods. There was no significant trend for precipitation over the studied time period, and no change point was detected. The air temperature showed a significant increasing trend (p<0.01), and 1986 (p<0.01) was the change point year. The climate variability, as measured by precipitation and temperature, and non-climate factors including land use changes and soil and water conservation were estimated to have contributed almost equally to the reduction in annual streamflow. Soil and water conservation practices, including biological measures (e.g. revegetation, planting trees and grass) and engineering measures (such as fish-scale pits, horizontal trenches, and sediment-trapping dams) play an important role in reduction of the conversion of rainfall to run-off. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Streamflow regimes of the Yanhe River under climate and land use change, Loess Plateau, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+648099,"Aim Many species are undergoing range shifts to higher latitudes in response to global warming. Whereas several studies of insects have examined causes of variability in the rate of range expansions, few studies have investigated species occupying higher trophic levels, where the effects of climate change are predicted to be particularly strong. Here, we analyse changes in the geographical range of Leptopilina boulardi, a small parasitoid of Drosophila larvae, in relation to temperature changes in the study area. Location The Rhone-Saone Valley in south-eastern France. Methods A survey of L. boulardi and its two Drosophila host species was conducted in 16 localities at the northern margin of the L. boulardi range over a period of 9years. A generalized linear mixed model was used to explain the occurrence of the parasitoid in the study area and its northward progression. We also developed linear mixed-effects models to determine the temperature changes in the studied area. Results Leptopilina boulardi was found to be moving very rapidly northwards, with an average rate of range expansion of 90 km decade-1, exceeding previously observed rates for small insects. We recorded significant warming (+1.57 degrees C, on average from 1979 to 2011), with a considerable temperature increase of 4 degrees C in the spring. Leptopilina boulardi range expansion is not limited by host availability, and we suggest that this northward range expansion is primarily a direct response to climate warming. Main conclusions In south-eastern France, a very rapid progression northwards, which coincides with a marked increase in temperature, was observed for a higher-trophic-level insect.",The rapid northward shift of the range margin of a Mediterranean parasitoid insect (Hymenoptera) associated with regional climate warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3544382,"Dry-fermented sausages (DFSs) have been linked to several serious foodborne outbreaks of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC). The ability of pathogens to utilize adaptive responses to different stressful conditions intended to control their growth in foods, food preparation and production processes may enhance their survival. In certain cases, induced tolerance to one type of stress may lead to enhanced resistance to the applied stress as well as to other stresses. We exposed two EHEC strains, MF3582 of serotype O157:H- and MF5554 of serogroup 0145, to different stresses commonly encountered during a production process. The two EHEC strains, previously shown to have different abilities to survive DFS production process conditions, were subjected to low temperatures (4 degrees C and 12 degrees C), 5% NaCl or 1% lactic acid for 6 days prior to being added to sausage batters. Survival of EHEC was recorded in salami of two recipes, fermented at two temperatures (20 degrees C and 30 degrees C). The results showed that recipe type had the largest impact on EHEC reductions where Moderate recipe (MR) salami batters containing increased levels of NaCl, glucose and NaNO2 provided enhanced EHEC reductions in salami (2.6 log(10)) compared to Standard recipe (SR) salami (1.7 log(10)). Effects of pre-exposure stresses were dependent both on strain and recipe. While acid adaptation of MF5554 provided enhanced log(10) reductions from 2.0 to 3.0 in MR sausages, adaptation to a combination of acid and salt stress showed the opposite effect in SR sausages with reductions of only 1.1 log(10) as compared to the average of 1.8 log(10) for the other SR sausages. Otherwise, the salt and acid adaptation single stresses had relatively small effects on EHEC survival through the DFS production process and subsequent storage and freeze/thaw treatments. Growing cells and cells frozen in batter survived poorly in MR sausages with an average reduction of 3.4 and 3.2 log(10), respectively. The reductions of EHEC after storage of DFS increased with higher temperature and storage time. Up to 3.7 log(10) additional reduction was obtained when MF3582 was stored for 2 months at 20 degrees C. In conclusion, adaptation of EHEC to acid, salt and low temperatures prior to being introduced in a DFS production process has limited, but strain dependent effects on EHEC reductions. Producers should avoid conditions leading to acid and salt adapted cells that can contaminate the sausage batter. Recipe parameters had the largest impact on EHEC reductions while storage at 20 degrees C is effective for enhanced reductions in finished products. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Effect of relevant environmental stresses on survival of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli in dry-fermented sausage,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2356661,"There is near consensus in the scientific community that humans will experience higher future temperatures due to the ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The human response to this climatic change, particularly if accompanied by a surge in extreme heat events, is a key topic being addressed by scientists across many disciplines. In this article, we review recent (2012-2015) research on human health impacts of observed and projected increases in summer temperature. We find that studies based on projected changes in climate indicate substantial increases in heat-related mortality and morbidity in the future, while observational studies based on historical climate and health records show a decrease in negative impacts during recent warming. The discrepancy between the two groups of studies generally involves how well and how quickly humans can adapt to changes in climate via physiological, behavioral, infrastructural, and/or technological adaptation, and how such adaptation is quantified.","Rising Temperatures, Human Health, and the Role of Adaptation",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1006549,"Coal spontaneous combustion results from a complex reaction between coal and oxygen. Previous studies on coal oxidation spontaneous combustion process provided guidance for fire prevention and control. In this work, we present a novel electromagnetic radiation (EMR) method to detect spontaneous combustion of coal. We established a multi-index experimental system for estimating various factors during coal oxidation (heating) and combustion and analyzed the characteristic temperature, index gases, and EMR signals. With the increase of temperature, the central temperature of coal varies significantly with the temperature around the coal oxidation heating device. Besides, we simultaneously tested the EMR signals generated during coal oxidation and combustion. EMR signals showed a positive correlation with temperature changes (i.e., EMR signal intensity increases with the increase in temperature and vice versa). The change trend of EMR signals with the CO is notable, and there is a good correspondence between the EMR signals and the change rule of CO gas. With the increase of temperature, the dielectric properties of coal change quickly, resulting in the occurrence of thermal deformation and rupture in the coal body, which produces significant EMR signals. The research results are of great significance for applying the EMR technique to directly detect hidden fire hazards in coal mines. © 2018 Institution of Chemical Engineers",An experimental study for characterization the process of coal oxidation and spontaneous combustion by electromagnetic radiation technique,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2331040,"The purpose of this paper is to provide quantitative fire history information from a historically unique region, die oak barrens of the Interior Low Plateau Ecoregion. We sampled 27 post oak (Quercus stellata Wangenh.) trees from the Boone Creek watershed in southern Indiana. The period of tree-ring record ranged in calendar years from 1654 to 1999 and fire scar dates (n = 84) ranged from 1656 to 1992. The mean fire interval for the period 1656 to 1992 was 8.4 y and individual fire intervals ranged from 1 to 129 y. The average percentage of trees scarred at the site was 19% or about 1 in 5 trees sampled. No significant relationship was identified between fire years and drought conditions however, variability in the fire record coincided with Native American migrations and Euro-American settlement periods. Temporal variability in the fire record illustrates not only the dynamic nature of anthropogenic fire regimes but also the importance of humans in culturing presettlement barrens communities.",Fire and human history of a barren-forest mosaic in southern Indiana,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+421612,"We characterised the historical fire regime (1900-2010) in eastern coastal fynbos shrublands, which occur in a poorly studied part of the Cape Floral Kingdom (CFK). Natural (lightning-ignited) fires dominated the fire regime. Fire seasonality decreased from west (Outeniqua region) to east (Tsitsikamma region) within the study area, and between the study area and further west in the CFK. This is consistent with a west-east climatic gradient in the CFK, where rainfall is concentrated in winter in the west, and evenly distributed across months in the east. Median fire return intervals (FRIs) (1980-2010) were broadly comparable to other fynbos areas but estimates varied widely depending on whether or not the data were censored (16-26 years with and 8-13 years without censoring). FRIs appeared to be shorter in the Tsitsikamma, where rainfall and plant growth rates are higher, than in the Outeniqua. The total area burnt annually has increased significantly since 1980, coinciding with an increase in weather conducive to fires, suggesting that fire regimes may be responding to climate change. Frequent recurrence of very large fires and the virtual absence of vegetation in older post-fire age classes are potential causes for concern in achieving fynbos conservation objectives.","Historical fire regimes in a poorly understood, fire-prone ecosystem: eastern coastal fynbos",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+384536,"Future intensification of Amazon drought resulting from climate change may cause increased fire activity, tree mortality, and emissions of carbon to the atmosphere across large areas of Amazonia. To provide a basis for addressing these issues, we examine properties of recent and future meteorological droughts in the Amazon in 35 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that the CMIP5 climate models, as a group, simulate important properties of historical meteorological droughts in the Amazon. In addition, this group of models reproduces observed relationships between Amazon precipitation and regional sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans. Assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario for future drivers of climate change, the models project increases in the frequency and geographic extent of meteorological drought in the eastern Amazon, and the opposite in the West. For the region as a whole, the CMIP5 models suggest that the area affected by mild and severe meteorological drought will nearly double and triple, respectively, by 2100. Extremes of wetness are also projected to increase after 2040. Specifically, the frequency of periods of unusual wetness and the area affected by unusual wetness are projected to increase after 2040 in the Amazon as a whole, including in locations where annual mean precipitation is projected to decrease. Our analyses suggest that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of extreme events that have been shown to alter and degrade Amazonian forests.",Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3887218,"Bud dormancy of temperate species is a natural and necessary cyclic process that occurs as part of a plant protection system against low temperatures during the winter. Several climatic factors are involved in this process, with emphasis on temperature, and internal factors such as phytohormones, carbohydrates, growth inhibitors, water content, enzymes and oxidative stress. Due to the interaction among these factors, the study of dormancy is complex and several methods have been developed to evaluate the presence and intensity of dormancy. In this chapter some of these methods will be described, discussing how they can be performed and their results. The Tabuenca's test is used for evaluation of floral buds dormancy. The single node cutting test is one of the most used to evaluate dormancy intensity. The dormancy index was created to more clearly characterize the dormancy intensity from the results of the single node cutting test. Biochemical tests can be performed to quantify various substances involved in the dormancy process, such as carbohydrates, enzymes and reactive oxygen species. The tetrazolium test is a newly developed test to rapidly quantify the respiratory activity of buds. © 2019 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.",Assessment of dormancy intensity in buds of temperate climate fruit species,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+659398,"The hydrological regime of a river is defined by variables or representative curves that in turn have characteristics related to fluctuations in flow rates resulting from climate variability. Distinguishing between the causes of streamflow variations, i.e. those resulting from human intervention in the watershed and those due to climate variability, is not trivial. To discriminate the alterations resulting from climate variation from those due to regulation by dams, a reference hydrological regime was established using the classification of events based on mean annual streamflow anomalies and inferred climatic conditions. The applicability of this approach was demonstrated by analysis of the streamflow duration curves. An assessment of the hydrological regime in the lower reaches of the Sao Francisco River, Brazil, after the implementation of hydropower plants showed that the operation of the dams has been responsible for 59% of the hydrological changes, while the climate (in driest conditions) has contributed to 41% of the total changes.",Distinguishing the effects of climate on discharge in a tropical river highly impacted by large dams,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2342460,"Anthracene is a common byproduct of incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and other anthropogenic sources. Its heteroatomic counterparts, including 9-bromoanthracene, 1,5-dibromoanthracene, 9,10-dibromoanthracene, 2-chloroanthracene, 9,10-dichloroanthracene, 9-anthraldehyde, 2-anthracenecarboxylic acid, 9-anthracenecarboxylic acid, and anthraquinone, are formed through various mechanistic pathways during the combustion process. We use a differential scanning calorimeter to measure the melting points and enthalpies of fusion of these compounds. As expected, we find no correlation between molecular mass and melting point and enthalpy of fusion-rather the type, number and position of the heteroatoms substituted on the parent molecule all influence its fusion thermodynamics. A wide range of melting points is noted for the same substituents(s) at different carbon positions. This suggests that intermolecular forces, such as hydrogen bonding and steric repulsion, are significantly impacted by the position of the substituents on the linear anthracene parent molecular. In addition, different substituents at the same position further suggest that the electronegativity/polarity of a given atom strongly influences the observed fusion behavior.",Melting points and enthalpies of fusion of anthracene and its heteroatomic counterparts,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2097489,"Understanding the environmental impacts associated with water-related adaptation measures plays an important role in decision making, as some adaptation measures may not offer environmental benefits compared to traditional water systems. The water depletion index (WDI) is one water stress indicator used to estimate the impacts of water consumption. A dynamic WDI was constructed and employed in this study under climate change scenarios with weather and streamflow modeling. To demonstrate whether adaptation measures can reduce water depletion and to demonstrate how dynamic WDI affects assessment results, Taipei, a highly developed and populated city in Taiwan, was selected as a case study site. Decreased WDI from July to August and increased WDI from September to October were simulated under climate change. This approach implied that when measuring water consumption impacts, the WDI should be applied according to the corresponding time period. Additionally, by substituting 70% of potable water with rainwater in a four-story building, 17.9-159.3 m(3) of the freshwater depletion risk might be reduced every month. As adaptation measures can be long-term strategies and long-lasting infrastructures, a dynamic WDI could provide policy makers with a method to accurately and effectively assess the impacts of applying water-related adaptation measures in response to climate change.",Impacts of urban water consumption under climate change: An adaptation measure of rainwater harvesting system,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2340602,"Changes to population and community structure can have important ecological consequences and raise conservation concerns when causes are anthropogenic; however, signs of stress may not always be apparent. Turtles are long-lived and presence of adults may suggest healthy populations when lack of recruitment is actually threatening persistence. We observed and captured turtles for two years in Point Pelee National Park, Ontario, Canada, and compared our results with those collected 30 years earlier to determine if (1) species relative abundance, (2) sex ratios, and (3) age structure changed over three decades. Extirpation of the spotted turtle since 1972-1973 has altered the park's species assemblage. Evidence also suggests that Blanding's turtles have declined. Sex ratios were similar between time periods for all species except for the painted turtle which has become significantly more male-biased. Size structure for Blanding's and snapping turtles shifted towards larger and presumably older age classes. Our results suggest that limited juvenile recruitment caused the size shift. Heavy predation on turtle nests from a dense raccoon population appears to be the main factor limiting recruitment. Despite protecting a sizable fragment of turtle habitat for a century, Point Pelee has lost one species and only one other species has a large healthy population. Our study illustrates that habitat protection provides no guarantee for species persistence when multiple threats exist and highlights the necessity for monitoring populations of long-lived species. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Species loss and shifting population structure of freshwater turtles despite habitat protection,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+151314,"Southern African rainfall does not show any trend to desiccation during the 20th century. However, the subcontinent experienced particularly severe droughts in the 1980s and at the beginning of the 1990s and the magnitude of the interannual summer rainfall variability shows significant changes. Modifications of the intensity and spatial extension of droughts is associated with changes in ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns. This paper focuses mostly on the well-documented 1950-1988 period and on late summer season (January-March), A principal component analysis on southern African rainfall highlights modifications of the rainfall variability magnitude. The 1970-1988 period had more variable rainfall, and more widespread and intense droughts than the 1950-1969 period. To investigate the potential modifications of the associated ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns, a composite analysis is performed on sea-surface temperature (SST) and National Center for Environmental Protection (NCEP) atmospheric parameters, according to the 5 driest years of both sub-periods. Significant changes are shown in ocean-atmosphere anomaly patterns coincident with droughts for both sub-periods. The 1950-1969 droughts were associated with regional ocean atmosphere anomalies, mainly over the southwest Indian Ocean region. In contrast, during the 1970-1988 droughts near-global anomalies were observed in the tropical zone, corresponding to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Within the whole century, significant correlations between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and southern African Rainfall Index (SARI) were found in the periods (1900-1933 and 1970-1998) when SOI and SARI experienced high variability, and when southern Africa was affected by intense and extended droughts. During periods of low SOI (1934-1969), correlations became less significant and droughts were less intense and widespread. Copyright (C) 2001 Royal Meteorological Society.","20th century droughts in southern Africa: Spatial and temporal variability, teleconnections with oceanic and atmospheric conditions",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2446434,"Thermal environment is important for both occupants’ comfort and health. Previously, the impacts of thermal environment were explored in the areas of thermal comfort and public health separately. This paper aims to bridge both disciplines by examining the correlation between comfort temperature and Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT), which is a key index quantifying the association of health and weather temperature, through literature review and data-driven approach. It was found that the MMT data obtained from the public health area are generally in good agreement with the thermal neutral temperatures from the comfort perspective. The MMT data range from 17.2 °C to 30 °C, which are similar to the thermal neutral temperatures ranging from 19.5 °C to 30 °C based on the global field tests. Moreover, the MMT data demonstrate the potential to capture some complex distribution patterns of the field comfort data. The introduction of the health-temperature data could assist the intensive field experiments and modeling efforts and complement the thermal comfort dataset, which suffers from the problems of limited sample size. Some discrepancies between the two datasets were identified as well. The contextual factors other than the climate factor which may cause such discrepancies, such as socio-economics, population densities, etc. should be analyzed to enable the potential application of the health-temperature data and modeling to thermal comfort and health studies. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd",Review of thermal comfort infused with the latest big data and modeling progresses in public health,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1447594,"Recent advances in animal tracking technology have increased interest in the field of animal movement ecology. Numerous methods have been developed to extract information from animal movement paths that can be used to link movement behavior to external stimuli such as habitat and climatic conditions. Given the recent development of Global Positioning System (GPS) technology suitable for use on wild turkeys (Meleagris gallapavo), we advocate the adoption of new methodologies to design novel research on wild turkey ecology. Here we provide a worked example using first-passage time on male Rio Grande wild turkeys (M. g. intermedia) tracked via GPS in South Texas, USA, during April 2009 to illustrate one methodological option on which research can be based. From our example, we infer behavioral decisions in response to habitat variables that varied during the diurnal cycle; turkeys were more likely to exhibit localized movements during midday in open areas near food and water resources. We contend that by taking advantage of GPS technology and focusing research questions on movement behavior, wild turkey research can progress toward answering mechanistic questions regarding turkey habitat use. This shift in research focus will provide much-needed information to managers that is currently lacking at both local and regional scales. (C) 2014 The Wildlife Society.",Evaluating Wild Turkey Movement Ecology: An Example Using First-Passage Time Analysis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+682058,"21st century climate change is projected to result in an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, but there is substantial uncertainty in how this will impact freshwater availability. A relatively overlooked aspect of this uncertainty pertains to how different methods of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) respond to changing climate. Here we investigate the global response of six different PET methods to a 2 degrees C rise in global mean temperature. All methods suggest an increase in PET associated with a warming climate. However, differences in PET climate change signal of over 100% are found between methods. Analysis of a precipitation/PET aridity index and regional water surplus indicates that for certain regions and GCMs, choice of PET method can actually determine the direction of projections of future water resources. As such, method dependence of the PET climate change signal is an important source of uncertainty in projections of future freshwater availability. Citation: Kingston, D. G., M. C. Todd, R. G. Taylor, J. R. Thompson, and N. W. Arnell (2009), Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20403, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040267.",Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1424783,"The strong link between environment and the ecological diversity of communities is often used for drawing palaeoenvironmental inferences from fossil assemblages. Here we focus on the reliability of fossil samples in comparison to original communities when inferring palaeoenvironments from the ecological diversity of fossil mammal faunas. Taphonomic processes and sampling techniques generally introduce two kinds of biases in fossil samples: 1) the directional impoverishment of communities, i.e. the absence of some specific categories of bones, individuals or species; and 2) the mixture of several communities, temporally (time-averaging) and/or spatially (space-averaging). We explore the impact of such alterations on ecological diversity and taxonomic richness by simulating an impoverishment in small species (1-45 kg) and a mixture of communities on an original dataset of 50 modern African communities. The progressive impoverishment in small species in a mammal community induces a relative enrichment in terrestrial and grazing species and a depletion (or even the disappearance) of several ecological categories (e.g., fossorial, arboreal, sub-arboreal, frugivorous, omnivorous and insectivorous species), thus leading to the ecological homogenisation of the altered communities. Other categories (carnivorous species, browsers, mixed feeders and sub-aquatic species) prove stable and seem to be good estimates for the relative abundances in the parent communities. Ideally, palaeoenvironmental inferences should be drawn from those ecological categories. For strong degrees of impoverishment, the discriminating power of the ecological diversity is reduced and other proxies should be used. Once the degree of impoverishment is assessed, it becomes possible to consider the condensation of several communities into a single fossil sample by comparing its taxonomic richness with those of modern communities, first impoverished to the same level. The mixture of communities tends to increase the taxonomic richness but does not significantly modify the overall ecological diversity. As a case study, we applied this approach to 15 African mammal samples from the late Miocene-earliest Pliocene, a period of particular interest, as it saw the emergence of hominins, together with faunal turnovers, and major climatic and environmental changes. Most of our fossil samples, especially those that yielded early hominins, appear altered to different degrees by taphonomic processes and sampling techniques, meaning that their faunal structures may not be comparable and that their inferred palaeoenvironmental differences may not be genuine. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Effect of simulated faunal impoverishment and mixture on the ecological structure of modern mammal faunas: Implications for the reconstruction of Mio-Pliocene African palaeoenvironments,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3307221,"Species-specific shifts in phenology (timing of periodic life cycle events) are occurring with climate change and are already disrupting interactions within and among trophic levels. Phenological phase duration (e.g. beginning to end of flowering) and complementarity (patterns of nonoverlap), and their responses to changing conditions, will be important determinants of species' adaptive capacity to these shifts. Evidence indicates that extension of phenological duration of mutualistic partners could buffer negative impacts that occur with phenological shifts. Therefore, we suggest that techniques to extend the length of phenological duration will contribute to management of systems experiencing phenological asynchrony. Techniques of phenological phase extension discussed include the role of abiotic heterogeneity, genetic and species diversity, and alteration of population timing. We explore these approaches with the goal of creating a framework to build adaptive capacity and address phenological asynchrony in plant-animal mutualisms under climate change.",Mismatch managed? Phenological phase extension as a strategy to manage phenological asynchrony in plant-animal mutualisms,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+160306,"Many tropical countries are exceptionally vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns, with floods or droughts often severely affecting human life and health, food and water supplies, ecosystems and infrastructure(1). There is widespread disagreement among climate model projections of how and where rainfall will change over tropical land at the regional scales relevant to impacts(2-4), with different models predicting the position of current tropical wet and dry regions to shift in different ways(5,6). Here we show that despite uncertainty in the location of future rainfall shifts, climate models consistently project that large rainfall changes will occur for a considerable proportion of tropical land over the twenty-first century. The area of semi-arid land affected by large changes under a higher emissions scenario is likely to be greater than during even the most extreme regional wet or dry periods of the twentieth century, such as the Sahel drought of the late 1960s to 1990s. Substantial changes are projected to occur by mid-century-earlier than previously expected(2,7)-and to intensify in line with global temperature rise. Therefore, current climate projections contain quantitative, decision-relevant information on future regional rainfall changes, particularly with regard to climate change mitigation policy.",Large rainfall changes consistently projected over substantial areas of tropical land,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+684760,"The assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) have demonstrated that the climate is changing and the future will see higher sea levels, more heat waves, intense storms and heavy precipitation events and extension of drought areas. These climate hazards are having impacts on human settlements causing major loss of life, social disruption and economic hardship. Recent literature has demonstrated that the problem is more rather than less critical. Linking of climate change adaptation with disaster risk reduction is important and starting to happen although there are significant barriers. Less developed countries and the poorest people in all countries are those most at risk and usually with the least capacity to adapt and reduce risk. A new international research initiative, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk: addressing the challenge of natural and human-induced environmental hazards (including climate change) has been established to meet the needs of providing an enhanced research base on which to develop and implement public policies.","Climate change, related hazards and human settlements",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+711818,"Previous studies have shown strong contrasting trends in annual sea ice duration and in monthly sea ice concentration in two regions of the Southern Ocean: decreases in the western Antarctic Peninsula/southern Bellingshausen Sea ( wAP/sBS) region and increases in the western Ross Sea ( wRS) region. To better understand the evolution of these regional sea ice trends, we utilize the full temporal ( quasi-daily) resolution of satellite-derived sea ice data to track spatially the annual ice edge advance and retreat from 1979 to 2004. These newly analyzed data reveal that sea ice is retreating 31 +/- 10 days earlier and advancing 54 +/- 9 days later in the wAP/sBS region ( i.e., total change over 1979 - 2004), whereas in the wRS region, sea ice is retreating 29 +/- 6 days later and advancing 31 +/- 6 days earlier. Changes in the wAP/sBS and wRS regions, particularly as observed during sea ice advance, occurred in association with decadal changes in the mean state of the Southern Annular Mode ( SAM; negative in the 1980s and positive in the 1990s) and the high-latitude response to El Nino - Southern Oscillation ( ENSO). In general, the high-latitude ice-atmosphere response to ENSO was strongest when - SAM was coincident with El Nino and when +SAM was coincident with La Nina, particularly in the wAP/sBS region. In total, there were 7 of 11 -SAMs between 1980 and 1990 and the 7 of 10 +SAMs between 1991 and 2000 that were associated with consistent decadal sea ice changes in the wAP/sBS and wRS regions, respectively. Elsewhere, ENSO/SAM-related sea ice changes were not as consistent over time ( e. g., western Weddell, Amundsen, and eastern Ross Sea region), or variability in general was high ( e. g., central/ eastern Weddell and along East Antarctica).",Trends in Antarctic annual sea ice retreat and advance and their relation to El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode variability,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+569490,"Reef- building corals are under increasing physiological stress from a changing climate and ocean absorption of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. We investigated 328 colonies of massive Porites corals from 69 reefs of the Great Barrier Reef ( GBR) in Australia. Their skeletal records show that throughout the GBR, calcification has declined by 14.2% since 1990, predominantly because extension ( linear growth) has declined by 13.3%. The data suggest that such a severe and sudden decline in calcification is unprecedented in at least the past 400 years. Calcification increases linearly with increasing large- scale sea surface temperature but responds nonlinearly to annual temperature anomalies. The causes of the decline remain unknown; however, this study suggests that increasing temperature stress and a declining saturation state of seawater aragonite may be diminishing the ability of GBR corals to deposit calcium carbonate.",Declining Coral Calcification on the Great Barrier Reef,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+602014,"Over the past 50 years, Alaska has experienced a warming climate with longer growing seasons, increased potential evapotranspiration, and permafrost warming. Research from the Seward Peninsula and Kenai Peninsula has demonstrated a substantial landscape-level trend in the reduction of surface water and number of closed-basin ponds. We investigated whether this drying trend occurred at nine other regions throughout Alaska. One study region was from the Arctic Coastal Plain where deep permafrost occurs continuously across the landscape. The other eight study regions were from the boreal forest regions where discontinuous permafrost occurs. Mean annual precipitation across the study regions ranged from 100 to over 700 mm yr(-1). We used remotely sensed imagery from the 1950s to 2002 to inventory over 10,000 closed-basin ponds from at least three periods from this time span. We found a reduction in the area and number of shallow, closed-basin ponds for all boreal regions. In contrast, the Arctic Coastal Plain region had negligible change in the area of closed-basin ponds. Since the 1950s, surface water area of closed-basin ponds included in this analysis decreased by 31 to 4 percent, and the total number of closed-basin ponds surveyed within each study region decreased from 54 to 5 percent. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature and potential evapotranspiration since the 1950s for all study regions. There was no significant trend in annual precipitation during the same period. The regional trend of shrinking ponds may be due to increased drainage as permafrost warms, or increased evapotranspiration during a warmer and extended growing season.",Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950-2002 remotely sensed images,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2365435,"The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and variability in the subtropical North Atlantic high sea level pressure (SLP) are known to affect rainfall in the Caribbean region. An El Nino event is associated with drier-than-average conditions during the boreal summer of year (0), and wetter-than-average conditions during the spring of year (+1). Dry conditions during the summer of year (0) of an El Nino are associated with the locally divergent surface circulation engendered by the eastward shift of deep convection in the Pacific Ocean. Wet conditions during the spring of year (+1) of an El Nino are associated with the lagged warming of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. Variability in the strength of the North Atlantic high is governed mainly by the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) with a positive NAO phase implying a stronger than normal high and vice versa. The NAO is negatively correlated with Caribbean rainfall indirectly via anomalous sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with anomalies in the surface wind speed at tropical latitudes and directly via anomalous subsidence. The combined effect of the two phenomena is found to be strongest when the two signals interfere constructively: During the summer following winters characterized by the positive phase of the NAO, the dryness associated with a developing warm ENSO event adds to the dryness associated with a positive SLP anomaly in the subtropical North Atlantic (7 out of 11 El Ninos between 1949 and 1999 fall in this category). During the spring following winters characterized by the negative phase of the NAO, the wetness that follows a warm ENSO event is augmented by the wetness associated with the warmer-than-average tropical North Atlantic SSTs (5 out of 11 El Ninos between 1949 and 1999 fall in this category). The coincidence in the recurrence of a positive phase of the NAO during the winters coinciding with peak warm ENSO conditions has increased in the last 20 years in comparison with the previous few decades. This partially explains the noticeable consistent dry signal over the Caribbean during the summer of year (0) of a warm ENSO event and the disappearance of the wet signal during the spring of year (+1) in the recent record.",Interdecadal changes in the ENSO teleconnection to the Caribbean region and the North Atlantic oscillation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+475162,"A report is presented on the Third International Urban Infrastructure Forum, which was held in conjunction with A&WMA's Annual Conference & Exhibition in Orlando, FL. The conference was held from June 24-28, 2001, to focus on air quality and environmental stewardship. The Forum featured a highly interactive format and focused on past and current air quality improvement programs worldwide.",Preview of A&WMA's Third Urban Forum: EPA Program Focuses on Integrated Strategies for Air Pollution and GHG Mitigation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+38721,"Climate change has caused advances in spring phases of many plant species. Theoretically, however, strong warming in winter could slow the fulfillment of chilling requirements, which may delay spring phenology. This phenomenon should be particularly pronounced in regions that are experiencing rapid temperature increases and are characterized by highly temperature-responsive vegetation. To test this hypothesis, we used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ratio method to determine the beginning, end, and length of the growing season of meadow and steppe vegetation of the Tibetan Plateau in Western China between 1982 and 2006. We then correlated observed phenological dates with monthly temperatures for the entire period on record. For both vegetation types, spring phenology initially advanced, but started retreating in the mid-1990s in spite of continued warming. Together with an advancing end of the growing season for steppe vegetation, this led to a shortening of the growing period. Partial least-squares regression indicated that temperatures in both winter and spring had strong effects on spring phenology. Although warm springs led to an advance of the growing season, warm conditions in winter caused a delay of the spring phases. This delay appeared to be related to later fulfillment of chilling requirements. Because most plants from temperate and cold climates experience a period of dormancy in winter, it seems likely that similar effects occur in other environments. Continued warming may strengthen this effect and attenuate or even reverse the advancing trend in spring phenology that has dominated climate-change responses of plants thus far.",Winter and spring warming result in delayed spring phenology on the Tibetan Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+322984,"Agro-industrial businesses often have easy access to agricultural and processing residues with which they may reduce costs and pollution by integrating their production with bioenergy production. In regions with unreliable power supply, on-site electricity generation is a means to secure stable production conditions. Furthermore, recycling of nutrients may help to reduce biomass suppliers' dependence on synthetic fertiliser. In this Environmental Sustainability Assessment (ESA) of fruit production in Ghana we compare two technology options for the production of mixed, fresh, tropical fruit, including cultivation, transport and processing. The option 'Present practice' presents data from a case study where production is characterised by soil loss and synthetic fertiliser dependence in cultivation and grid supply of electricity in processing. The option 'Biogas' is hypothetical and characterised by biogas and electricity production using farming and processing residues and by recycling of nutrients and carbon to soil. Cocoa shells are used as a co-substrate in the biogas production. Estimating the environmental impact of cocoa shell residues exposes the multifunctionality issue, continuously debated in ESA, particularly concerning bioenergy production. We compare the use of allocation of cocoa production impacts and system expansion that includes cocoa production as possible methods to manage multifunctionality of inputs. In assessments of residue-based production, we recommend using the latter method. Applying the system expansion method, we find that, in comparison with 'Present practice', the option 'Biogas' eliminates net soil carbon loss and reduces synthetic fertiliser, diesel and external electricity requirements at the expense of a relatively small increase in human labour input. The ESA includes the following indicators and shows that the 'Biogas' option is superior to 'Present practice' with regard to Cumulative Energy Demand (-39%), Cumulative fossil Energy Demand (-34%), Food Energy Return On energy Investment (+65%), Food Energy Return On fossil energy Investment (+53) and Global Warming Potential (-29%) and similar to 'Present practice' in terms of the Emergy Assessment indicators Unit Emergy Value, Global Renewability Fraction, and Local Supply Fraction. Discarding the system expansion method, the same conclusion applies even if the emergy indicators are more ambiguous. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Environmental sustainability assessment of fruit cultivation and processing using fruit and cocoa residues for bioenergy and compost. Case study from Ghana,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+901157,"Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a standard tool for policy analysis and forecasts of economic growth. Unfortunately, due to computational constraints, many CGE models are dimensionally small, aggregating countries into an often limited set of regions or using assumptions such as static price-level expectations, where next period's price is conditional only on current or past prices. This is a concern for climate change modeling, since the effects of global warming by country, in a fully disaggregated and global trade model, are needed, and the known future effects of global warming should be included in forward-looking forecasts for prices and profitability. This work extends a large dimensional intertemporal CGE trade model to account for the various effects of global warming (e.g., loss in agricultural productivity, sea level rise, and health effects) on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and levels for 139 countries, by decade and over the long term, where producers look forward and adjust price expectations and capital stocks to account for future climate effects. The potential economic gains from complying with the Paris Accord are also estimated, showing that even with a limited set of possible damages from global warming, these gains are substantial. For example, with the comparative case of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (4 degrees C), the global gains from complying with the 2 degrees C target (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) are approximately US$17,489 billion per year in the long run (year 2100). The relative damages from not complying to Sub-Sahara Africa, India, and Southeast Asia, across all temperature ranges, are especially severe.",The Effects of Climate Change on GDP by Country and the Global Economic Gains From Complying With the Paris Climate Accord,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1541079,"Background: Fire suppression has altered ecological communities globally. Prescribed fire regimes strive to restore function to these fire-dependent ecosystems by mimicking natural fire regimes. Although fire frequency is a widely acknowledged component of fire regimes, the importance of fire seasonality for biodiversity is less clear but appears to play a critical role for a variety of taxa, particularly in the North American Coastal Plain. In subtropical Florida, USA, fire historically occurred primarily at the transition from the dry to wet season (early wet season: April to June) when dry fuel accumulation coincides with a high incidence of lightning. We investigated the effects of fire frequency and season on endangered Florida bonneted bats (Eumops floridanus [G.M. Allen, 1932), a species endemic to a region that evolved with frequent fires. Results: We surveyed bat activity acoustically in 149 sites in fire-dependent vegetation communities (pine flatwoods and prairies), and evaluated the effects of fire frequency and seasonality, using burn records from the previous 18 years. Variation in bat activity was best explained by both fire frequency and season: bat activity decreased with early wet season (April to June) burn interval and increased with dry season (November to March) burn interval. Bat activity and foraging activity were highest in sites burned at > 3- to 5-year intervals during the early wet season. Conclusion: Fires during the historic fire season at a moderate frequency (> 3 to 5 yr) appear to optimize habitat for bats in both pine flatwoods and prairies, likely through increases in roosts, flight space, and insect prey availability. It appears that Florida bonneted bats are fire-adapted and benefit from prescribed burn programs that closely mimic historical fire regimes. We encourage consideration of both fire frequency' and seasonality when managing ecosystems with fire.",Restoring historical fire regimes increases activity of endangered bats,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+25581,"Static thermal requirements (T (req) ) are widely used to model the timing of phenology, yet may significantly bias phenological projections under future warming conditions, since recent studies argue that climate warming will increase T (req) for triggering vegetation phenology. This study investigates the temporal trend and inter-annual variation of T (req) derived from satellite-based spring and autumn phenology for the alpine and temperate vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2011. While we detected persistent warming in both spring and autumn across this time period, we did not find a corresponding long-term increase in T (req) for most of the study area. Instead, we found a substantial interannual variability of T (req) that could be largely explained by interannual variations in other climatic factors. Specifically, the number of chilling days and fall temperature were robust variables for predicting the dynamics of T (req) for spring onset and autumn senescence, respectively. Phenology models incorporating a dynamic T (req) algorithm performed slightly better than those with static T (req) values in reproducing phenology derived from SPOT-VGT NDVI data. To assess the degree to which T (req) variation affects large-scale phenology and carbon cycling projections, we compared the output from versions of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model that incorporated static and dynamic T (req) values in their phenology algorithms. Under two contrasting future climate scenarios, the dynamic T (req) setting reduced the projected growing season length by up to 1-3 weeks by the late twenty-first century, leading to a maximum reduction of 8.9 % in annual net primary production and similar to 15 % in cumulative net ecosystem production for this region. Our study reveals that temporal dynamics of T (req) meaningfully affect the carbon dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau, and should thus be considered in future ecosystem carbon modeling.",Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+620073,"Anthropogenic climate change adds to the existing suite of threats to species, such as habitat degradation, by increasing extinction risk and compromising the ability of species to respond adaptively to these stressors. Because threats from anthropogenic climate change often interact synergistically with other threats, integrated assessments of the factors and processes that affect species persistence and distribution are required. We assessed the influence of coastal land use and climate change (specifically sea level rise) on the spatial distribution of nests within the largest loggerhead Caretta caretta marine turtle rookery in the Atlantic Ocean, at Melbourne Beach, Florida, from 1986 to 2006. We generated a multiple regression model based on climate change, sea-level rise and land use that describes 47% of the spatial variation in loggerhead nesting. Nests have shifted northward (likely in response to warming temperatures), away from intensive coastal development, and, surprisingly, toward areas of increased erosion. Using the Bruun Rule (an approximation of the response of the shoreline profile to sea level rise), we modeled the impacts of sea level rise of 0.25 and 0.5 m in conjunction with extrapolations of coastal development and a continued northward shift in nest distribution. We project up to a 43% decrease in beach area from 1986 to a future with 0.5 m of sea level rise and predict that loggerhead nesting will shift northward and become increasingly crowded on narrowing beaches. An implication of this study is that areas currently protected for large rookeries may not overlap with their future distributions.","Sea level rise, land use, and climate change influence the distribution of loggerhead turtle nests at the largest USA rookery (Melbourne Beach, Florida)",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1543117,"Southeastern Australia has been experiencing ongoing rainfall deficits since 1997. The spatial extent of the current drought closely corresponds to those regions where rainfall is influenced by interannual variations in the intensity of the subtropical ridge. An upward trend in the intensity of the subtropical ridge thus provides an explanation for the recent rainfall deficit. The possibility that slow variations in tropical modes of variability that are known to influence rainfall in the region, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, may have contributed to southeastern Australia rainfall deficits is investigated using a tripole sea surface temperature index. This index takes into account key influences on Australian climate from variations in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The tripole index correlates well with rainfall variations across southeastern Australia on interannual to decadal time scales in winter and spring but not in autumn when most of the recent rainfall deficits have occurred. The influence of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations associated with the tripole on southeastern Australian rainfall is explained in terms of Rossby wave propagation, which helps us to understand why the impact is stronger in the southern half of the Murray-Darling Basin and why there is no relationship in autumn. On the basis of the linear relationship between the tripole SST variation and rainfall across the Murray-Darling Basin, we conclude that tropical SSTs have not contributed to the observed rainfall deficiencies in southeast Australia since 1997 but did contribute to the 1935-1945 rainfall deficits.",The role of tropical modes of variability in recent rainfall deficits across the Murray-Darling Basin,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2146364,"Climate change, nutrient pollution, land conversion, overexploitation, and invasive species and diseases - the 'big five' global drivers of ecosystem change - are altering biodiversity in the Arctic. Changes in biodiversity have implications for local people since they depend on biodiversity for their traditional activities. Remote Arctic areas lack scientific records of biodiversity status and trends. Indigenous knowledge (IK) can help fill in these information gaps. More importantly, IK is essential to establish policies and practices for biodiversity conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity. This study presents indigenous people's perceptions of changes and trends in biodiversity in Arctic Yakutia in Northeastern Siberia, Russia. The results document the perception of indigenous people on biodiversity changes at the study sites: new species of plants and animals have expanded their ranges to the north, and the abundance of native species as well as the phenology of plants have changed. 1K relates these trends to different global change drivers, assumes that the changes are both naturally and anthropogenically driven, and reflects resulting alterations in species interactions in the forest tundra and tundra ecosystems.",'There are new species': indigenous knowledge of biodiversity change in Arctic Yakutia,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+517343,"BACKGROUND: Climate change may affect Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission in a wide region including both subtropical and temperate areas. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate the effects of climatic variables on the transmission of P. vivax in temperate regions. METHODS: We estimated the effects of climatic factors on P. vivax malaria transmission using data on weekly numbers of malaria cases for the years 2001-2009 in the Republic of Korea. Generalized linear Poisson models and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were adopted to estimate the effects of temperature, relative humidity, temperature fluctuation, duration of sunshine, and rainfall on malaria transmission while adjusting for seasonal variation, between-year variation, and other climatic factors. RESULTS: A 1 degrees C increase in temperature was associated with a 17.7% [95% confidence interval (Cl): 16.9, 18.6%] increase in malaria incidence after a 3-week lag, a 10% rise in relative humidity was associated with 40.7% (95% Cl: -44.3, -36.9%) decrease in malaria after a 7-week lag, a 1 degrees C increase in the diurnal temperature range was associated with a 24.1% (95% CI: -26.7, -21.4%) decrease in malaria after a 7-week lag, and a 10-hr increase in sunshine per week was associated with a 5.1% (95% Cl: -8.4, -1.7%) decrease in malaria after a 2-week lag. The cumulative relative risk for a 10-mm increase in rainfall (<= 350 mm) on P. vivax malaria was 3.61 (95% CI: 1.69, 7.72) based on a DLNM with a 10-week maximum lag. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that malaria transmission in temperate areas is highly dependent on climate factors. In addition, lagged estimates of the effect of rainfall on malaria are consistent with the time necessary for mosquito development and P. vivax incubation.",Estimated Effect of Climatic Variables on the Transmission of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in the Republic of Korea,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1973087,"Currently there is intense research activity to improve energy efficiency in buildings. School buildings are among the most numerous of public buildings in Europe, most of them built several decades ago. This paper analyses the inclusion of good energy efficiency practices within a school buildings renovation and modernization programme as an opportunity to improve their energy performance, with a reduced cost of upgrading the buildings. It is developed within the framework of a regional programme to renovate the stock of school buildings in the South of Spain mild climate zone, which amount to more than 4500 schools, as representative of mild Mediterranean climate area with approximately 87,000 schools. It studies the impact of a set of affordable, passive refurbishment solutions to improve the envelope of school buildings (insulation, shading and glazing) in a reference baseline building model. The results show relatively low energy demands compared with those reported in equivalent schools in other climates, 19.6 kWh/m(2) for cooling and 11.1 kWh/m(2) for heating. A high potential for energy efficiency improvement, with savings up to 17.7% for heating and up to 15.9% for cooling is obtained by combining affordable passive actions with an investment cost of 146 c/m(2). (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Passive actions in the building envelope to enhance sustainability of schools in a Mediterranean climate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+738399,"The purpose of this paper is to quantify climatic controls on the area burned by. re in different vegetation types in the western United States. We demonstrate that wild. re area burned (WFAB) in the American West was controlled by climate during the 20th century (1916-2003). Persistent ecosystem-specific correlations between climate and WFAB are grouped by vegetation type (ecoprovinces). Most mountainous ecoprovinces exhibit strong year-of-fire relationships with low precipitation, low Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and high temperature. Grass-and shrub-dominated ecoprovinces had positive relationships with antecedent precipitation or PDSI. For 1977-2003, a few climate variables explain 33-87% (mean = 64%) of WFAB, indicating strong linkages between climate and area burned. For 1916-2003, the relationships are weaker, but climate explained 25-57% (mean = 39%) of the variability. The variance in WFAB is proportional to the mean squared for different data sets at different spatial scales. The importance of antecedent climate (summer drought in forested ecosystems and antecedent winter precipitation in shrub and grassland ecosystems) indicates that the mechanism behind the observed. re-climate relationships is climatic preconditioning of large areas of low fuel moisture via drying of existing fuels or fuel production and drying. The impacts of climate change on. re regimes will therefore vary with the relative energy or water limitations of ecosystems. Ecoprovinces proved a useful compromise between ecologically imprecise state-level and localized gridded fire data. The differences in climate . re relationships among the ecoprovinces underscore the need to consider ecological context (vegetation, fuels, and seasonal climate) to identify specific climate drivers of WFAB. Despite the possible influence of. re suppression, exclusion, and fuel treatment, WFAB is still substantially controlled by climate. The implications for planning and management are that future WFAB and adaptation to climate change will likely depend on ecosystem-specific, seasonal variation in climate. In fuel-limited ecosystems, fuel treatments can probably mitigate. re vulnerability and increase resilience more readily than in climate-limited ecosystems, in which large severe. res under extreme weather conditions will continue to account for most area burned.","Climate and wildfire area burned in western U. S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+487639,"A discussion covers some of the consequent problems of sustainability; agriculture and food; energy subsidies; health and population growth; energy needs and climate change, with emphasis on the drivers of energy consumption, which is the major source of input of greenhouse gases (CO2); ecological footprints; possible technical advances that might alleviate the problems, e.g., genetically modified organisms, medicine, solar energy and the development of viable fuel cells and large scale rechargeable lithium or other batteries for static and dynamic energy storage (e.g., vehicles); clean-up and recycling; aims of ""green chemistry""; and social difficulties inherent in acting today on behalf of a seemingly distant future.",Sustainable development on a finite planet,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+210955,"In this study, trends of classic climate indices on temperature and rainfall were combined with analyses of seasonal indices in order to better highlight the different angles of climate variability and change observed since 1950 in Burkina Faso. Results show that there is no doubt global warming affects all regions of the country. Concerning rainfall, the decrease of total annual precipitation proves to be the most significant change. This is consistent with results of other studies that focused on other areas of the sub-region. Despite this negative trend in all stations, this study demonstrates that themajority of stations have recorded a rainfall recovery in recent years. However, the rainfall levels recorded in 2013 are still far from what they were before the great droughts. The investigation of extreme events shows an overall stability in the frequency and in the intensity of these events. However, the conjunction of the general decrease of total rainfall, of the increase of average rainfall for wet days, of the increase of maximum consecutive dry days and of the decrease of maximum consecutive wet days proves that, even if there is not an increase in so-called heavy rains, there are changes in the pattern of rainfall. Because the results do not show a significant increase of extreme events, it is likely that the socioeconomic impacts generally presented as direct consequences of climate change and which are increasingly observed affecting inhabitants of Burkina Faso cannot be attributed to climate change alone.",Long-term analysis of rainfall and temperature data in Burkina Faso (1950-2013),1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+473639,"At high latitudes, changes in soil moisture could alter soil temperatures independently of air temperature changes by interacting with the snow thermal rectifier. The authors investigated this mechanism with model experiments in the Community Land Model 4 (CLM4) with prescribed atmospheric forcing and vegetation state. Under equilibriumhistorical conditions, increasing CO2 concentrations experienced by plants from 285 to 857 ppm caused local increases in soil water-filled pore space of 0.1-0.2 in some regions throughout the globe. In permafrost regions that experienced this moistening, vertical-and annual-mean soil temperatures increased by up to 3 degrees C (0.27 degrees C averaged over all permafrost areas). A similar pattern of moistening and consequent warming occurred in simulations with prescribed June-September (JJAS) rainfall increases of 25% over historical values, a level of increase commensurate with projected future rainfall increases. There was a strong sensitivity of the moistening responses to the baseline hydrological state. Experiments with perturbed physics confirmed that the simulated warming in permafrost soils was caused by increases in the soil latent heat of fusion per unit volume and in the soil thermal conductivity due to the increased moisture. In transient Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario experiments, soil warming due to increased CO2 or JJAS rainfall was smaller in magnitude and spatial extent than in the equilibrium experiments. Active-layer deepening associated with soil moisture changes occurred over less than 8% of the current permafrost area because increased heat of fusion and soil thermal conductivity had compensating effects on active-layer depth. Ongoing modeling challenges make these results tentative.",Effects of Soil Moisture on the Responses of Soil Temperatures to Climate Change in Cold Regions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2357659,"Impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) and overharvesting are anthropogenic factors that have had a dramatic effect on Yangtze fish. This study used the multivariate analysis to quantify the relationship between abiotic alterations (seven variables from the TGR impoundment and fishing activities) and fish response, revealing the processes through which abiotic changes affect fish assemblages over a 14-year period (1999-2012). Fish assemblages temporally clustered into three groups that were strongly associated with the TGR impoundment. Eleven species that accounted for 98.44% of dissimilarities contributed to these three clustered groups. Variation in fish assemblages primarily resulted from a decline in three lotic species without spawning grounds downstream, fluctuations in four lotic species with spawning grounds downstream, and increases in three eurytopic species. Abiotic changes resulted from the TGR impoundment (TGR water levels, sediment, and water temperature), together with fish activities (fishing intensity), significantly affected the temporal patterns of the fish assemblages. Results suggest that the decline in lotic species can be attributed to the blocking and declines in the downstream movement of lotic species caused by increased water levels in the TGR. Increases in eurytopic species and declines in other species were caused by habitat fragmentation via a decline in sediment discharge and changes in water temperature. Fishing activities affected fish assemblages throughout the entire period of observation, particularly during the initial impoundment period from 2003 to 2005. These findings highlight the degree to which those anthropogenic factors affected the fish assemblages in temporal processing.",Multivariate analysis performed to identify the temporal responses of fish assemblages to abiotic changes downstream of the Gezhouba Dam on the Yangtze River,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3881544,"Although the California Department of Public Health has been delivering nutrition education for nearly two decades, the use of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Education (SNAP-Ed) resources to advance policy, systems, and environmental change interventions (PSEs) to prevent obesity has been relatively recent. To date, most efforts to couple PSEs to conventional nutrition education have not been well-studied and as such, their lessons have not been used extensively in local planning. This special issue seeks to close this gap by sharing lessons from the planning and implementation of these efforts in Los Angeles County during the 2013–2016 SNAP-Ed funding cycle. It comprises a collection of six articles that recount key experiences from this work in the field. © 2019 The Author","Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Education in Los Angeles County: Lessons and observations from the field, 2013–2016",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+50776,"Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 degrees C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% Cl: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% Cl: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% Cl: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: Lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+778033,"Upper treeline ecotones are important life form boundaries and particularly sensitive to a warming climate. Changes in growth conditions at these ecotones have wide-ranging implications for the provision of ecosystem services in densely populated mountain regions like the European Alps. We quantify climate effects on short- and long-term tree growth responses, focusing on among-tree variability and potential feedback effects. Although among-tree variability is thought to be substantial, it has not been considered systematically yet in studies on growth-climate relationships. We compiled tree-ring data including almost 600 trees of major treeline species (Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus cembra, and Pinus mugo) from three climate regions of the Swiss Alps. We further acquired tree size distribution data using unmanned aerial vehicles. To account for among-tree variability, we employed information-theoretic model selections based on linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) with flexible choice of monthly temperature effects on growth. We isolated long-term trends in ring-width indices (RWI) in interaction with elevation. The LMMs revealed substantial amounts of previously unquantified among-tree variability, indicating different strategies of single trees regarding when and to what extent to invest assimilates into growth. Furthermore, the LMMs indicated strongly positive temperature effects on growth during short summer periods across all species, and significant contributions of fall (L.decidua) and current year's spring (L.decidua, P.abies). In the longer term, all species showed consistently positive RWI trends at highest elevations, but different patterns with decreasing elevation. L.decidua exhibited even negative RWI trends compared to the highest treeline sites, whereas P.abies, P.cembra, and P.mugo showed steeper or flatter trends with decreasing elevation. This does not only reflect effects of ameliorated climate conditions on tree growth over time, but also reveals first signs of long-suspected negative and positive feedback of climate change on stand dynamics at treeline.",Among-tree variability and feedback effects result in different growth responses to climate change at the upper treeline in the Swiss Alps,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+101763,"Background: Heat is recognized as one of the deadliest weather-related phenomena. Although the impact of high temperatures on mortality has been a subject of extensive research, few previous studies have assessed the impact of population adaptation to heat. Methods: We examined adaptation patterns by analyzing daily temperature and mortality data spanning more than a century in New York City. Using a distributed-lag nonlinear model, we analyzed the heat-mortality relation in adults age 15 years or older in New York City during 2 periods: 1900-1948 and 1973-2006, to quantify population adaptation to high temperatures over time. Results: During the first half of the century, the decade-specific relative risk of mortality at 29 degrees C vs. 22 degrees C ranged from 1.30 (95% confidence interval [CI]= 1.25-1.36) in the 1910s to 1.43 (1.37-1.49) in the 1900s. Since the 1970s, however, there was a gradual and substantial decline in the relative risk, from 1.26 (1.22-1.29) in the 1970s to 1.09 (1.05-1.12) in the 2000s. Age-specific analyses indicated a greater risk for people age 65 years and older in the first part of the century, but there was less evidence for enhanced risk among this older age group in more recent decades. Conclusion: The excess mortality with high temperatures observed between 1900 and 1948 was substantially reduced between 1973 and 2006, indicating population adaption to heat in recent decades. These findings may have implications for projecting future impacts of climate change on mortality.",Heat and Mortality in New York City Since the Beginning of the 20th Century,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1505204,"Antarctic volume changes during the past 21 thousand years are smaller than previously thought, and here we construct an ice sheet history that drives a forward model prediction of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) gravity signal. The new model, in turn, should give predictions that are constrained with recent uplift data. The impact of the GIA signal on a Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Antarctic mass balance estimate depends on the specific GRACE analysis method used. For the method described in this paper, the GIA contribution to the apparent surface mass change is re-evaluated to be +5513 Gt/yr by considering a revised ice history model and a parameter search for vertical motion predictions that best fit the GPS observations at 18 high-quality stations. Although the GIA model spans a range of possible Earth rheological structure values, the data are not yet sufficient for solving for a preferred value of upper and lower mantle viscosity nor for a preferred lithospheric thickness. GRACE monthly solutions from the Center for Space Research Release 04 (CSR-RL04) release time series from January 2003 to the beginning of January 2012, uncorrected for GIA, yield an ice mass rate of +2.9 29 Gt/yr. The new GIA correction increases the solved-for ice mass imbalance of Antarctica to -5734 Gt/yr. The revised GIA correction is smaller than past GRACE estimates by about 50 to 90 Gt/yr. The new upper bound to the sea level rise from the Antarctic ice sheet, averaged over the time span 2003.0-2012.0, is about 0.160.09 mm/yr.",Antarctic contribution to sea level rise observed by GRACE with improved GIA correction,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+719064,"Climate changes are having dramatic ecological impacts in mid-to high-latitude mountain ranges where growth conditions are limited by climatic variables such as duration of growing season, moisture, and ambient temperature. We document patterns of forest vegetative response for 5 major alpine forest communities to current climate variability in the central Himalayas of Nepal to provide a baseline for assessment of future changes, as well as offer some insight into the trajectory of these changes over time. We used mean monthly surface air temperature and rainfall and the monthly averaged normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to compare relative vegetation productivity among forest types and in relation to both climatic variables. Because changes in temperature and precipitation are directly manifested as changes in phenology, we examined current vegetative responses to climate variability in an effort to determine which climate variable is most critical for different alpine forest types. Our results show that correlations differ according to vegetation type and confirm that both precipitation and temperature affect monthly NDVI values, though more significant correlations were found with temperature data. The temperature response was more consistent because at the maximum increased temperatures, there was still an ongoing increase in vegetative vigor. This indicates that temperature is still the major limiting factor for plant growth at higher-elevation sites. This part of the Himalayas has abundant moisture, and some forest types are already saturated in terms of growth in relation to precipitation. Clear increases in productivity are documented on the upper treeline ecotones, and these systems are likely to continue to have increasing growth rates.",Responses of Montane Forest to Climate Variability in the Central Himalayas of Nepal,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+733885,"The impact of observed changes in air temperature and precipitation from 1969 to 2013 and climate projections for 2050 and 2080 at Ny-Alesund, an arctic research station on Spitzbergen Island in the Svalbard Archipelago on snow hydrological processes, were analyzed using snow accumulation and ablation algorithms in the physically based Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM). The climate projections were obtained from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), with a focus on the snow-dominated period (October to June). To identify the potential effects of increasing temperature and precipitation, a model sensitivity analysis (1 degrees C to 5 degrees C), with and without a 25% increase in precipitation, was run on CRHM snow processes. The results indicated that the greatest observed warming was during the early snow season (October-February), with increases of 0.8 and 0.9 degrees C decade(-1) for maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures, respectively. There was also a significant increase in annual and winter precipitation (24 mm decade(-1)). The late snow season (March-June) also had a marked increase in temperature (0.5 and 0.69 degrees C decade(-1) for Tmax and Tmin respectively), but no significant change in precipitation. These changes lead to a significant increase in the number of days with rainfall rather than snowfall. The sensitivity analysis indicated that mean snow water equivalent snow pack will decrease by 10.2% (early snow season) and 11.1% (late snow season) per degree of increased air temperature. For each degree of temperature increase, the modelled peak snow-water-equivalent (SWE) declined by 6.9%, duration of snowpack declined 11 days, and the number of days with rain increased 43% for the early snow season and 12.8% for the late snow season. A warmer climate also leads to markedly decreased surface snow sublimation and the fraction of snowfall eroded and transported by blowing snow. For most snowpack parameters analyzed, the response to warming accelerates with increased warming, especially above 3 degrees C. A 25% increase in precipitation partially counteracted the response to warming, with the greatest effect on peak SWE. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Impact of climate warming on snow processes in Ny-Alesund, a polar maritime site at Svalbard",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+319424,"The abrupt changes in the streamflow and sediment load at nine hydrological stations of the Pearl River basin were systematically analysed by using the simple two-phase linear regression scheme and the coherency analysis technique. Possible underlying causes were also discussed. Our study results indicated that abrupt changes in the streamflow occurred mainly in the early 1990s. The change points were followed by significant decreasing streamflow. Multiscale abrupt behaviour of the sediment load classified the hydrological stations into two groups: (1) Xiaolongtan, Nanning and Liuzhou; and (2) Qianjiang, Dahuangjiangkou, Wuzhou, Gaoyao, Shijiao and Boluo. The grouped categories implied obvious influences of water reservoirs on the hydrological processes of the Pearl River. On the basis of analysis of the locations and the construction time of the water reservoirs, and also the time when the change points occurred, we figured out different ways the water reservoirs impacted the hydrological processes within the Pearl River basin. As for the hydrological variation along the mainstream of the Pearl River, the water reservoirs have considerable influences on both the streamflow and sediment load variations; however, more influences seemed to be exerted on the sediment load transport. In the North River, the hydrological processes seemed to be influenced mainly by climate changes. In the East River, the hydrological variations tended to be impacted by the water reservoirs. The study results also indicated no fixed modes when we address the influences of water reservoirs on hydrological processes. Drainage area and regulation behaviour of the water reservoirs should be taken into account. The results of this study will be of considerable importance for the effective water resources management of the Pearl River basin under the changing environment. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Abrupt changes in the discharge and sediment load of the Pearl River, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1486581,"This study quantified climatological and hydrological trends and relationships to presence and distribution of 2 native aquatic species in the Kansas River basin over the past half century. Trend analyses were applied to indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHAs) at 34 streamgages over a 50-year period (1962-2012). Results showed a significant negative trend in annual streamflow for 10 of 12 western streamgages (up to -7.65mm/50years) and smaller negative trends for most other streamgages. Significant negative trends in western basin streamflow were more widespread in summer (12 stations) than in winter or spring (6 stations). The negative-trend magnitude and significance decreased from west to east for maximum-flow IHAs. Minimum-flow IHAs, however, significantly decreased at High Plains streamgages but significantly increased at Central Great Plains streamgages. Number of zero-flow days showed positive trends in the High Plains. Most streamgages showed negative trends in low- and high-flow pulse frequency and high-flow pulse duration, and positive trends in low-flow pulse duration. These results were consistent with increasing occurrence of drought. Shift in occurrence from present (1860-1950) to absent (2000-2012) was significantly related (p<.10) to negative trends of 1-day maximum flows (both species) and indices associated with reduced spawning-season flows for Plains Minnow and shifting annual-flow timing and increased flow intermittency for Common Shiner. Both species were absent for all western basin sites and had different responses to hydrological index trends at eastern basin sites. These results demonstrate ecohydrological index changes impact distributions of native fish and suggest target factors for assessment or restoration activities.","Ecohydrological index, native fish, and climate trends and relationships in the Kansas River basin",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+98749,"A quantitative estimate of the magnitude of late Pleistocene/Holocene variations in the migration of siliceous microfauna is calculated from fossil assemblages preserved in marine sediments from piston cores located in the southeast Indian Ocean sector of the Subantarctic. Results of this modern analog technique indicate that fauna characteristic of colder waters today occupied surface and near-surface waters overlying the core sites for much of the last half million years. Warm-water fauna inhabited these waters for only brief time periods, usually during the early portion of interglacial isotopic stages. The estimated faunal migration pattern from the most southern sites is similar in most respects to that of atmospheric temperatures over Antarctica recorded in the Vostok ice core. A model of changes in the positions of the Subtropical Convergence and the Antarctic Polar Front, constructed from time series of faunal variations, indicates that although southward migrations of these oceanographic fronts in this region of the southern ocean were limited to approximately 4 degrees of latitude, northward displacements were of the order of 5 degrees to 7 degrees of latitude. Fauna at the Antarctic Polar Front react earlier than either the fauna at the Subtropical Convergence or the global ice volume signal to major global warming (terminations), providing further documentation of the early response of the high-latitude southern ocean relative to other components of the climate system to the various factors forcing Pleistocene climate.",VARIATIONS IN HIGH-LATITUDE OCEANOGRAPHIC FRONTS IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN: AN ESTIMATION BASED ON FAUNAL CHANGES,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3937610,"Satellite observation from space in support of the renewable energy sector is discussed. About 30 EMOD projects, involving more than 60 VAC and 130 end-user, have been performed to support decision making and demonstrate the performance, accuracy and economic benefits of the EO technology. Meteorological satellites can provide global maps, and combining these maps with EO products can estimate the optimal solar energy yield expected from a photovoltaic plant. EO satellites have the ability to provide a synoptic view of the earth and retrospective data sets, which is particularly useful for assessing rapidly available energy resources.",Eye in the sky,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1795094,"Research on climate change and migration usually assesses the effects of natural hazards and/or creeping environmental degradation on people's livelihoods and their migration. This chapter looks at changing rainfall patterns, local perception of these changes, and the decision to migrate, or not, to cope with rainfall variability and hunger. Based on empirical evidence from a case study undertaken in Kurigram District in northern Bangladesh, this chapter addresses four key questions: (1) Is the rural population sensitive to rainfall variability? (2) How is rainfall variability related to food security? (3) Which labour-migration systems can be used by the local people to cope with environmental shocks and adapt to change? and (4) Do people migrate for work to cope with and adapt to the effects of rainfall variability or because of food insecurity and social inequality? Although rainfall variability can play an important role in people's decisions to migrate, we argue that migration from the region is not driven so much by climate changes as it is by the persistent local patterns of social inequality and food insecurity coupled with the structural economic disparities that exist in Bangladesh.","Rainfall Variability, Hunger, and Social Inequality, and Their Relative Influences on Migration: Evidence from Bangladesh",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+592332,"Most seasonally snow covered ecosystems will continue to face more shallow and discontinuous snowpack as the world warms. Annual greenhouse gas and nitrogen (N) budgets in seasonally snow covered ecosystems are partly controlled by snow depth and duration, but little is known about the generality of these responses during the growing season and the driving mechanisms across sites. Using results from snow addition and removal experiments, we performed a meta-analysis to quantify soil biogeochemical responses during the growing season to decreasing winter snow depth, and to identify correlative variables that best explained changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux, nitrous oxide (N2O) efflux, and mobile N concentration in runoff, leachate, and soil solution. The moderators tested to possibly explain the effects of manipulated snow depth were the sampling date (earlier vs. later in growing season), the direction of snow manipulation, soil texture, vegetation type, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), latitude, and the maximum change in winter soil temperature due to snow manipulation. Across studies, decreasing snow depth caused a 35% reduction in soil CO2 efflux and a three-fold increase in N2O efflux later in the growing season, and a two-fold increase in mobile N concentration throughout the growing season. The tested moderators of CO2 and N2O efflux were important earlier but not later in the growing season. Early in the growing season, decreasing snow depth increased soil CO2 efflux in snow removal experiments at lower latitude sites with a higher MAT and smaller change in winter soil temperature. Decreasing snow depth increased N2O efflux more at lower latitudes sites with a higher MAP and smaller change in winter soil temperature. Changes in mobile N concentration were greater in forest than in non-forest ecosystems, and tended to increase with latitude. Our meta-analysis suggests that winter and summer biogeochemistry are intertwined, and decreasing snow cover generally reduces ecosystem N retention. Future changes in snow cover may impact global carbon and N biogeochemistry at the annual scale, likely driven by interactions between climate, latitude, and vegetation type.",Consequences of manipulated snow cover on soil gaseous emission and N retention in the growing season: a meta-analysis,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+793046,"Purpose - The purpose of this study is to first examine the factors affecting the intra-household perception of climate change. Second, the study investigates the impact of the perception of climatic stress on the operators' and spouses' intra-household adaptation strategies (farm and household financial strategies). Design/methodology/approach - The study uses household survey data from Vietnam's Mekong Delta. The study uses probit and negative binomial count data approaches to evaluate the empirical model. Findings - Results confirm the existence of intra-household gender differences in the adaptation strategies. The authors found that although spouses perceive climatic stress, they are less likely to adapt to such stresses when it comes farming enterprise, but more likely to adapt to household financial strategies. In contrast, farm operators, in the presence of climatic stresses, undertake both farm and household finance adaptation strategies. Practical implications - Investment in climate smart agriculture can help households in managing climatic stresses. Originality/value - A farmer in Asia, and Vietnam in particular, faces significant risks from climatic changes. In Vietnam, agriculture is easily affected by natural disasters and climatic changes. This study provides insights into the perception of climatic changes by operators and spouses in Vietnam's Mekong Delta. Perceived changes in the climate have a greater impact on women because they typically lack the necessary tools to adapt to climate change. The current findings could be useful in managing climatic risk in Vietnam's Mekong Delta and be helpful to policymakers in designing risk management strategies in response to climatic changes.",Perception of climate change and adaptation strategies in Vietnam Are there intra-household gender differences?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1705692,"It is widely accepted that the Earth's climate has become increasingly warmer, most likely due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The variability in climate refers to natural changes in climate that fall within the normal range of extremes for a particular region, as measured by temperature, precipitation and frequency of events. This variation is driven by the uneven distribution of solar heating, the individual responses of the atmosphere, oceans and land surface, the interactions between these and the physical characteristics of the regions. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the already serious challenges to human health, food security and economic development, especially on the African Continent where people are already struggling to meet challenges posed by existing climate variability. Although climate disasters of the past and present decades and their disastrous consequences were not limited to or peculiar to Nigeria or Africa; adaptation to climate variability and changes seems to be especially relevant for Africa, due to her low coping capacity to impacts of the changes. Climate, more especially temperature has a strong and direct influence on development, reproduction and survival of tropical insects such as mosquitoes. Since insect population growth potentials are mainly temperature driven, a rise in temperature may either increase or decrease insect development, likewise rainfall. This paper highlights malaria incidence as a consequence of climate variability and its adaptation by the urbanites within Owerri microclimate in Imo State of Nigeria. It employed the use of 20 years (1990-2000) temperature and rainfall data for Owerri from Nigerian Meteorological Agency and available 10 years (2000 - 2009) data on average malaria cases in Owerri metropolis from primary health care data center, Owerri. The results show variations in the climate of Owerri city and the resultant malaria incidence within the period under study, hence evidence of climate variability and change in Nigeria includes increasing heat waves which enhances disease vectors, communicable diseases and epidemics. However, Owerri people are adapting positively to control the spread of malaria being one of the impacts of climate variability in the metropolis but however, more adaptation strategies are needed.",Climate Variability and Malaria Incidence: Impact and Adaptation in Owerri Municipal of Imo State Nigeria,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+432564,"Glaciers are significant fresh water storages in Central Asian high mountains and are considered to substantially contribute to the summer runoff of Central Asian Rivers. We present a comprehensive study of the glacier area changes in the Naryn catchment located in the Tien Shan Mountains. The catchment with a size of 55,944 km(2) is a major tributary of the Syrdarya River which is heavily used for water supply and irrigation. We analysed the glacier retreat based on Landsat MSS, TM and ETM + imagery for the mid-1970s, late 1990s and mid-2000s and based on a SPOT scene for 2007. Our results show a decreasing glacierisation within the catchment, shrinking from 1210 +/- 30 km(2) (2.2% glacierisation) in the 1970s to 1019 +/- 25 km(2) (1.8% glacierisation) in the late 1990s and further down to 926 +/- 23 km(2) (1.7% glacierisation) in the mid-2000s, corresponding to an area loss of 23% in total. The analysis reveals spatially heterogeneous area loss within the catchment. This can be associated with different hypsometries, size distributions, aspects and presences of debris cover. Small glaciers (with an area <1 km(2)) suffered from a strong area loss within the 30-years investigation period. Trends in air temperature, precipitation and positive degree days (PDD) at climate stations suggest that the glacier retreat is likely to be driven by the increasing summer (April-September) temperature, rather than Changes in precipitation: In the period from 1960 to 2007, both summer air temperature and PDDs increased significantly at a rate of 0.19 degrees C/decade and 3.9 degrees C/decade respectively, whilst for precipitation no consistent trends were detected. However, rigorous attribution of changes is complicated by the variable glacier response times. In the two headwater sub-catchments of the Naryn basin, Small and Big Naryn, positive trends in spring and autumn discharge were detected and are likely to be associated with the enhanced snow and glacier melt driven by increasing temperatures in those seasons. However, no discharge trends in August the month with the largest expected glacier contribution - were detected. The strong, significantly positive trends in winter and early spring runoff are associated with strongly increasing winter temperatures and number of days with maximum daily temperature above the freezing point causing snow melt. Hence, increasing glacier area reduction can be explained by the prolongation of the melting season reducing accumulation rather than by increasing annual mean temperatures. Despite the high relative changes, the absolute increase in winter discharge is very small. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Changes in glacierisation, climate and runoff in the second half of the 20th century in the Naryn basin, Central Asia",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+1461741,"Agricultural management effects on soil organic carbon (SOC) can be significant, but are often relatively small compared with the total SOC pool and its field-scale variability. In field experiments, completely uniform initial SOC concentrations across all plots are unlikely. Therefore, measured treatment effects through time are biased by these initial differences. This study questioned how much this bias can represent and whether it can be neglected or must be accounted for. In 1116 investigated pairs of treatments in 10 meta-replicated Swedish long-term soil fertility experiments, the average absolute initial difference in SOC was 1.3 g C kg(-1), whereas the average absolute difference after about 50 years of contrasting management was 1.5 g C kg(-1). Initial differences in SOC were significantly correlated with final differences (R-2 = 0.14) and in 47% of all investigated pairs the absolute initial difference was higher than the absolute final difference. However, simple subtraction of initial differences between pairs from final differences to isolate the treatment effect neglect the fact that the soil with the higher initial SOC content will lose proportionally more C through mineralization during the experimental period higher SOC content caused higher SOC mineralisation during the experimental period. Therefore, a first-order kinetic model was used to predict the decrease in initial SOC differences over time as influenced by climate. We derived a generic empirical equation that can be used to account for this severe but inherent problem with plot experiments. According to the equation, 65 and 69% of the initial differences in SOC between treatment pairs persisted after 50 years under the climate conditions in southern and central Sweden, respectively. We conclude that initial differences can be severe and have to be accounted for. The proposed empirical equation can reduce the bias in treatment comparisons for different climatic conditions and contribute to improve the quality of data interpretation from long-term field experiments. (c) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Towards an unbiased method for quantifying treatment effects on soil carbon in long-term experiments considering initial within-field variation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+591372,"Streamflow and sediment concentrations in northern rivers are highly variable from year to year, but the paucity of data renders it difficult to establish the norms of contemporary water and sediment discharges. With regard to suspended sediment yield, nival, proglacial, and prolacustrine regimes are recognized, depending on the sources of water and the sources and sinks of sediments in the streams. The availability of water and sediments is often asynchronous, particularly because of the presence of snow and ice in the channel and permafrost in the banks, which play both protective and enhancement roles in fluvial erosion, depending on the season. Thus, empirical relationships between sediment concentrations and streamflow may be highly tenuous. Anthropogenically induced climatic warming is likely to raise the temperature of northern winters, but the response of precipitation remains uncertain. As long as warming raises the temperature above the freezing level, rates of snow and ice melt and permafrost degradation will be accelerated, affecting future streamflows and sediment regimes. Vegetation may affect sediment yield, but the presence of lakes and wetlands will buffer against future changes. It is suggested that research on climatic change impacts should focus on the water and sediments in the channels as well as the suite of fluvial landforms in the present paraglacial and periglacial environment.","CLIMATIC VARIABILITY, CLIMATIC CHANCE, RUNOFF, AND SUSPENDED SEDIMENT REGIMES IN NORTHERN CANADA",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3262365,"Purpose This paper aims to draw on community risk assessment (CRA) for assessing vulnerability to climate change in north-western Ghana, focusing on sunshine, temperature and wind, elements of climate which are seldom explored in vulnerability assessments to climate change. Design/methodology/approach The paper draws on data collected from a qualitative research design that used participatory rural appraisal methods, particularly, in-depth interviews, focus group discussions and seasonal calendar analysis in three selected rural communities of the Sissala East District. Furthermore, an inter-generational framework was adopted for comparative assessment of vulnerability and changes in vulnerability to climate change. Findings The results show that the current generation of smallholder farmers is more vulnerable to climate change than the past generation, the era of grandparents. Thus, farmers are exposed to higher-intensity sunshine, temperature and wind in contemporary times than was the case in the past. Consequently, their livelihoods are affected the most by the damaging effects of these climatic hazards. The CRA process revealed the relevance of indigenous knowledge systems for vulnerability assessments and at the same time, underpins the need for adaptation of such knowledge if it is to sustain smallholder farmer efforts at climate change adaptation at community levels. Originality/value This paper will contribute to climate change research in two ways: first, by drawing attention to the usefulness of CRA in vulnerability assessment; and second, by focusing on climate elements which are critical for CCAP but rarely given sufficient attention in vulnerability assessments.","Sunshine, temperature and wind Community risk assessment of climate change, indigenous knowledge and climate change adaptation planning in Ghana",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+663937,"Knowledge of reference conditions and species-environment associations is required to ascertain ongoing aquatic biodiversity changes in Arctic regions. The objective of this study was to establish a baseline of fish community structure (species composition, incidence and relative abundance) in relation to salinity, pH and temperature gradients in an Arctic estuary, the Husky Lakes, Canada. Sampling involved an early-summer, standardized, experimental netting survey around the entire perimeter of all estuary basins and peninsulas. Detrended canonical correspondence analysis (DCCA) was used to evaluate species-environment associations. The ecosystem sustains an abundant and diverse fish community, characterized by co-dominance of coregonids and a marine schooling fish, Clupea pallasii, and high abundance of freshwater/freshwater-amphidromous species in the innermost basins. Highest richness and total abundance were related to mixing conditions, warmest temperatures, connectivity to nearby ecosystems, and diversity in species life histories. Salinity determined spatial patterns of fish species abundance and distribution. The incidence of freshwater fish was limited by the availability of low salinity habitat and potential community interactions. These fish, particularly Salvelinus namaycush and Thymallus arcticus, are considered as the most vulnerable to changes in freshwater habitat availability. The fish assemblage reflects environmental information from surrounding fluvial, freshwater, coastal marine and catchment ecosystems, and is thus a prime candidate for monitoring environmental change in the region. The results provide a benchmark against which future studies of fish communities can be compared to evaluate potential effects of climate change and anthropogenic development on fish populations from Husky Lakes and similar Arctic aquatic ecosystems. Crown Copyright (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Association for Great Lakes Research.",Early summer near-shore fish assemblage and environmental correlates in an Arctic estuary,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1287672,"Ammonia (NH3) is one of the important greenhouse gases which could affect the climate change, to reduce the number of farmland ecosystem of NH3 emissions, using the intermittent airtight ventilation method, studied the impact of rotation and long-term plant crude opium cultivation conditions above emission regularity of NH3 volatilization and dynamic growth. The results show that compared with the crop rotation treatment, continuous cropping treatment can significantly increase the emissions of NH3 volatilization rate and vega cumulants, stage and basal fertilizer than vega emissions of NH3 volatilization rate is high, the soil is 0.46 kg. hm(-2). d(-1); In stage basic fertilizer and fertilizer, continuous cropping treatment and rotation of NH3 volatilization cumulants are in line with the Logistic growth curve, and the measured values and calculated a highly positive correlation between simulation value; Throughout the vega fertilizing period, continuous cropping treatment of NH3 volatilization cumulant than 0.055 kg/hm(2), rotation and continuous cropping treatment and rotation NH3 volatilization loss rate of 1.58 times. Crop rotation system can reduce the NH3 volatilization rate, and can reduce the NH(3)volatilization cumulative loss, and thus can reduce the NH3 volatilization loss rate. (C) 2018 Friends Science Publishers.",Effects of Different Tillage Modes for Ammonia Volatilization Emissions from Flue-Cured Tobacco Fields,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1285795,"The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.",Past and future drought in Mongolia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3314026,"Background. A changing climate is likely to have widespread and varying impacts on ecosystems and human health. South Africa (SA) is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, given the projected increases in temperature, and changes in the amount and patterns of rainfall. Moreover, SA's vulnerability is exacerbated by extreme inequality and poverty. To prepare for the impacts of climate change and to ensure timeous adaptation, a perspective is given on essential heat and health research in the country. Objectives. To gather studies conducted by the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC)'s Environment and Health Research Unit (EHRU) to illustrate the range of possible research key areas in the climate, heat and health domain and to present future research priorities. Methods. Studies conducted by the SAMRC's EHRU were gathered and used to illustrate the range of possible research key areas in the climate, heat and health domain. Using national and international published and grey literature, and tapping into institutional research experiences, an overview of research findings to date and future research priorities were developed. Results. Heat and health-related research has focussed on key settings, for example, schools, homes and outdoor work places, and vulnerable groups such as infants and children, the elderly and people with pre-existing diseases. The need to address basic needs and services provision was emphasised as an important priority. Conclusions. High and low temperatures in SA are already associated with mortality annually; these impacts are likely to increase with a changing climate. Critical cross-sectoral research will aid in understanding and preparing for temperature extremes in SA.","Gathering the evidence and identifying opportunities for future research in climate, heat and health in South Africa: The role of the South African Medical Research Council",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+722571,"The objective of this study was to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution in Japan attributed to extreme-rainfall-induced slope failures in the future. For this purpose, a regression relationship between the slope failure probability and the subsequent sediment yield was developed by using sediment yield observations from 59 dams throughout Japan. The slope failure probability accounts for the effects of topography (as relief energy), geology and hydro-climate variations (hydraulic gradient changes due to extreme rainfall variations) and determines the potential slope failure occurrence with a 1-km resolution. The applicability of the developed relationship was then validated by comparing the simulated and observed sediment yields in another 43 dams. To incorporate the effects of a changing climate, extreme rainfall variations were estimated by using two climate change scenarios (the MRI-RCM20 Ver. 2 model A2 scenario and the MIROC A1B scenario) for the future and by accounting for the slope failure probability through the effect of extreme rainfall on the hydraulic gradient. Finally, the developed slope failure hazard-sediment yield relationship was employed to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution under a changing climate in Japan. Time series analyses of annual sediment yields covering 15-20 years in 59 dams reveal that extreme sedimentation events have a high probability of occurring on average every 5-7 years. Therefore, the extreme-rainfall-induced slope failure probability with a five-year return period has a statistically robust relationship with specific sediment yield observations (with r(2) = 0.65). The verification demonstrated that the model is effective for use in simulating specific sediment yields with r(2) = 0.74. The results of the GCM scenarios suggest that the sediment yield issue will be critical in Japan in the future. When the spatially averaged sediment yield for all of Japan is considered, both scenarios produced an approximately 17-18% increase around the first half of the 21st century as compared to the present climate. For the second half of the century, the MIROC and MRI-RCM20 scenarios predict increased sediment yields of 22% and 14%, respectively, as compared to present climate estimations. On a regional scale, both scenarios identified several common areas prone to increased sediment yields in the future. Substantially higher specific sediment yield changes (over 1000m(3)/km(2)/year) were estimated for the Hokuriku, Kinki and Shikoku regions. Out of 105 river basins in Japan, 96 will have an increasing trend of sediment yield under a changing climate, according to the predictions. Among them, five river basins will experience an increase of more than 90% of the present sediment yield in the future. This study is therefore expected to guide decision-makers in identifying the basins that are prone to sedimentation hazard under a changing climate in order to prepare and implement appropriate mitigation measures to cope with the impacts.",Distributed specific sediment yield estimations in Japan attributed to extreme-rainfall-induced slope failures under a changing climate,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+108710,"Arctic permafrost coasts are sensitive to changing climate. The lengthening open water season and the increasing open water area are likely to induce greater erosion and threaten community and industry infrastructure as well as dramatically change nutrient pathways in the near-shore zone. The shallow, mediterranean Arctic Ocean is likely to be strongly affected by changes in currently poorly observed arctic coastal dynamics. We present a geomorphological classification scheme for the arctic coast, with 101,447 km of coastline in 1,315 segments. The average rate of erosion for the arctic coast is 0.5 m year(-1) with high local and regional variability. Highest rates are observed in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Beaufort Seas. Strong spatial variability in associated database bluff height, ground carbon and ice content, and coastline movement highlights the need to estimate the relative importance of shifting coastal fluxes to the Arctic Ocean at multiple spatial scales.",The Arctic Coastal Dynamics Database: A New Classification Scheme and Statistics on Arctic Permafrost Coastlines,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+452701,"The area burned by forest fires in Canada has increased over the past four decades, at the same time as summer season temperatures have warmed. Here we use output from a coupled climate model to demonstrate that human emissions of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol have made a detectable contribution to this warming. We further show that human-induced climate change has had a detectable influence on the area burned by forest fire in Canada over recent decades. This increase in area burned is likely to have important implications for terrestrial emissions of carbon dioxide and for forest ecosystems.",Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3549999,"Hydropower dams are one of the largest sources of anthropogenic impacts on freshwater systems in the world. In addition to the modifications in environmental dynamics (i.e., fish migration barrier, water flow reduction, depth increase, flood regulation), the novel environments are favorable to the dissemination of non-native species in the basin. The lack of native species adapted to the changed environment creates occupations opportunity (i.e., available resources) for non-native species, which end up finding in these environments ideal areas to complete their life cycle. Thus, the aim of the work was identify which reservoir characteristics provide as well benefits for non-native fish species. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that the spatial structure, reservoir productivity and morphology, and chronological characteristics are factors related to the composition and abundance of non-native fish species in reservoir. Using novel statistical techniques (Principal coordinates of neighbour matrices and Distance-based linear models), it was possible to identify the spatial patterns and to understand how the characteristics of the reservoirs influence the composition of the abundance of these species. Our results show that some reservoir characteristics provide benefits to non-native fish species, thus being localities within the hydrologic basins that can be considered as sources of non-native fish species propagules. In general, our results showed that larger and older reservoirs have a greater abundance of non-native fish species. Also, it was possible to identify spatial patterns, where in smaller scales neighboring reservoir tend to be more similar as to the composition and abundances of non-native fish species and this similarity can reach basin level. © 2019, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.",Spatial and environmental factors predict the composition of non-native fish assemblages in Neotropical reservoirs,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+56803,"Human interventions in natural systems have resulted in large changes in vegetation composition and distribution patterns. The Land Use Change and Climate Change (LUCC) study under the International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) is a major initiative in this regard. Changes in land use and hence in vegetation cover, due to climatic change and human activity, affect surface water and energy budgets directly through plant transpiration, surface albedo, emissivity and roughness. They also affect primary production and, therefore, the carbon cycle. Thus, there is a need for spatial and temporal characterization of vegetation cover at different scales, from the global and continental scale to the local patch scale. Satellite remote sensing provides detailed information regarding the spatial distribution and extent of land use changes in the landscape. Meghalaya, in north-east India, is one of the most important, biologically rich landscapes. Degradational activities, namely shifting cultivation, clear felling of forests for timber, and mining, have altered the natural landscape to a great extent. Because of these increased anthropogenic activities the natural landscape has been modified which has resulted in a fragmented landscape with poor species composition. These changes in the landscape were analysed using IRS 1A, 1B and Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS) data during the period 1980-1995. The vegetation type maps were prepared by a visual interpretation technique in order to study the land cover dynamics pattern in Meghalaya.",Landscape cover dynamics pattern in Meghalaya,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+287826,"The climate of Kerala is controlled by the monsoon, and the analysis of rainfall and drought scenario, for a period of 141 years (1871-72 to 2011-12), reveals a decreasing trend in southwest monsoon, and increasing trends for post-monsoon-, winter- and pre-monsoon-rainfall. The inconsistent periodicity (2-8 years) of annual- and seasonal-rainfall agrees with the periodicity of El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The annual rainfall shows an irregular distribution, and is concentrated roughly in half of the year, which is due to the monsoon-driven climatic seasonality. The rainfall concentration at annual-, southwest monsoon-, and winter-scales exhibits significant decreasing trends, implying decline in the degree of irregularity in annual- and seasonal-rainfall. Temporal distribution as well as severity of the drought events have been analyzed using various drought indicators. The drought pattern is not only related to the rainfall trends, but also to the rainfall concentration (or monthly rainfall heterogeneity). The decreasing rainfall during southwest monsoon contributes to short-term meteorological droughts, which have serious implications on the agricultural sector and water resources of Kerala, while the increasing rainfall during other seasons helps to reduce the drought severity. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Temporal analysis of rainfall (1871-2012) and drought characteristics over a tropical monsoon-dominated State (Kerala) of India,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+537232,"Ecosystems have an essential role in providing services to humankind such as nutrient cycling, pest control, pollination, quality of life, and hydrological, atmospheric and climatic regulation. About 60% of the world's known ecosystems are currently used unsustainably. In Europe, the richness and abundance of biodiversity is undergoing significant decline, partly due to climate change. This article outlines the impacts of climate change on biodiversity by showing both observed and projected changes in the distribution and phenology of plants and animals (phenology refers to changes in the timing of seasonal events). The four major findings are the following. (1) Concerning the distribution of plant species, climate change is responsible for the observed northward and uphill distribution shifts of many European plant species. By the late 21st century, distributions of European plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north, forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north, and 60% of mountain plant species may face extinction. The rate of change will exceed the ability of many species to adapt. (2) Concerning plant phenology, the timing of seasonal events in plants is changing across Europe due to changes in climate conditions. For instance, 78% of leaf unfolding and flowering records show advancing trends. Between 1971 and 2000, the average advance of spring and summer was 2.5 days per decade. The pollen season starts on average 10 days earlier and is longer than 50 years ago. Trends in seasonal events will continue to advance as climate warming increases in the years and decades to come. (3) Concerning the distribution of animal species, Europe's birds, insects, and mammals are moving northwards and uphill in response to observed climate change. Rate of climate change, habitat fragmentation and other obstacles will impede the movement of many animal species. Distribution changes are projected to continue. Suitable climatic conditions for Europe's breeding birds are projected to shift nearly 550 km northeast by the end of the century. Projections for 120 native European mammals suggest that up to 9% face extinction during the 21st century. (4) Concerning animal phenology, climatic warming has caused advancement in the life cycles of many animal groups, including frogs spawning, birds nesting and the arrival of migrant birds and butterflies. Seasonal advancement is particularly strong and rapid in the Arctic. Breeding seasons are lengthening, allowing extra generations of temperature-sensitive insects such as butterflies, dragonflies and pest species to be produced during the year. These trends are projected to continue as climate warming increases in the decades to come. Populations may explode if the young are not exposed to normal predation pressures. Conversely, populations may crash if the emergence of vulnerable young is not in synchrony with their main food source or if shorter hibernation times lead to declines in body condition.",Climate change in Europe. 1. Impact on terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity. A review (Reprinted),1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1825740,"There is strong evidence to suggest that climate change has affected and will continue to affect the occurrence, distribution, and prevalence of livestock diseases in Nepal. This study investigated how climate change has affected the livestock population in Mustang District. The outbreak of new diseases, changes in disease patterns, increase in cases of external and internal parasites, decrease in the availability of forage and fodder, and deterioration of pasture land were the major climate change effects observed. The number of livestock has decreased, resulting in declining income from livestock-related activities of Jomsom and Kagbeni, two Village Development Committees in the Mustang District where people are seeking alternative occupations. The results revealed that some signs of climate change were experienced by rural communities in the study sites, such as an increasing number of warm days and a decreasing number of cold days. The different measures that people have adopted to lessen the impacts of climate change on the livestock population were also identified.","Effects of Climate Change on the Livestock Population in Mustang District, Nepal",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+718911,"The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature-mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996-2002 and 2004-2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources.",Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2335573,"The present study evaluated mutagenic and genotoxic effects and metal accumulation in the liver and musculature of Pterygoplichthys ambrosetti and Prochilodus lineatus in the Amambai River, a tributary of the Upper Parana River in Brazil. We also evaluated the potential for these fish species as environmental bioindicators and performed risk assessment for conservation purposes. We found that P. ambrosetti had a higher frequency of micronuclei compared to P. lineatus (p < 0.0001). There were no significant differences between species in other erythrocyte nuclear abnormalities (ENA) (p > 0.05). For both species, the liver contained a higher concentration of metals (Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu, Fe, Zn, and Ni) than the musculature did (p < 0.0001). Of the two species, P. ambrosetti was more suitable to evaluate mutagenic and genotoxic effects and metal accumulation in the liver and musculature, likely due to its resident behavior; hence, we highlight the potential of this species for use as an environmental bioindicator. The concentrations of non-essential metals observed in the fish confirm conditions of environmental stress in the Amambai River, possibly related to the discharge of pollutants and exacerbated by lack of native vegetation cover along the watercourse.","Mutagenic and genotoxic effects and metal contaminations in fish of the Amambai River, Upper Parana River, Brazil",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+91353,"Understanding the interplay between environmental factors contributing to treeline formation and how these factors influence different life stages remains a major research challenge. We used an afforestation experiment including 92 000 trees to investigate the spatial and temporal dynamics of tree mortality and growth at treeline in the Swiss Alps. Seedlings of three high-elevation conifer species (Larix decidua, Pinus mugo ssp. uncinata, and Pinus cembra) were systematically planted along an altitudinal gradient at and above the current treeline (2075 to 2230 m above sea level [a.s.l.]) in 1975 and closely monitored during the following 30 years. We used decision-tree models and generalized additive models to identify patterns in mortality and growth along gradients in elevation, snow duration, wind speed, and solar radiation, and to quantify interactions between the different variables. For all three species, snowmelt date was always the most important environmental factor influencing mortality, and elevation was always the most important factor for growth over the entire period studied. Individuals of all species survived at the highest point of the afforestation for more than 30 years, although mortality was greater above 2160 m a.s.l., 50-100 m above the current treeline. Optimal conditions for height growth differed from those for survival in all three species: early snowmelt (ca. day of year 125-140 [where day 1 is 1 January]) yielded lowest mortality rates, but relatively later snowmelt (ca. day 145-150) yielded highest growth rates. Although snowmelt and elevation were important throughout all life stages of the trees, the importance of radiation decreased over time and that of wind speed increased. Our findings provide experimental evidence that tree survival and height growth require different environmental conditions and that even small changes in the duration of snow cover, in addition to changes in temperature, can strongly impact tree survival and growth patterns at treeline. Further, our results show that the relative importance of different environmental variables for tree seedlings changes during the juvenile phase as they grow taller.",Factors driving mortality and growth at treeline: a 30-year experiment of 92 000 conifers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+451111,"Background Factors affecting vulnerability to heat-related mortality are not well understood. Identifying susceptible populations is of particular importance given anticipated rising temperatures from climatic change. Methods We investigated heat-related mortality for three Latin American cities (Mexico City, Mexico; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Santiago, Chile) using a case-crossover approach for 754 291 deaths from 1998 to 2002. We considered lagged exposures, confounding by air pollution, cause of death and susceptibilities by educational attainment, age and sex. Results Same and previous day apparent temperature were most strongly associated with mortality risk. Effect estimates remained positive though lowered after adjustment for ozone or PM(10). Susceptibility increased with age in all cities. The increase in mortality risk for those >= 65 comparing the 95th and 75th percentiles of same-day apparent temperature was 2.69% (95% CI: -2.06 to 7.88%) for Santiago, 6.51% (95% CI: 3.57-9.52%) for Sao Paulo and 3.22% (95% CI: 0.93-5.57%) for Mexico City. Patterns of vulnerability by education and sex differed across communities. Effect estimates were higher for women than men in Mexico City, and higher for men elsewhere, although results by sex were not appreciably different for any city. In Sao Paulo, those with less education were more susceptible, whereas no distinct patterns by education were observed in the other cities. Conclusions Elevated temperatures are associated with mortality risk in these Latin American cities, with the strongest associations in So Paulo, the hottest city. The elderly are an important population for targeted prevention measures, but vulnerability by sex and education differed by city.","Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: A case-crossover study in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+74821,"In the northern high latitudes, alternative hypotheses with regards to how warming-related shifts in seasonality influence ecosystem productivity exist. Increased plant growth associated with a longer growing season may enhance ecosystem productivity, but shifts to earlier springs may also negatively influence soil moisture status and productivity during the peak of the growing season. Here, we analyzed nearly three decades (1982-2008) of observational records and derived products, including satellite microwave and optical imagery as well as upscaled ecosystem flux observations, to better understand how shifts in seasonality impact hydrology and productivity in the North American boreal forests. We identified a dominant adverse influence of earlier springs on peak summer forest greenness, actual evapotranspiration and productivity at interannual time scales across the drier western and central sections of the North American boreal forests. In the vast regions where this spring onset mechanism operates, ecosystem productivity gains from earlier springs during the early portion of the growing season are effectively cancelled through corresponding losses in the later portion. Our results also indicate that recent decadal shifts towards earlier springs and associated drying in the midst of the growing season over western North American boreal forests may have contributed to the reported declines in summer productivity and increases in tree mortality and fire activity. With projections of accelerated northern high-latitude warming and associated shifts to earlier springs, persistent soil moisture deficits in peak summer may be an effective mechanism for regional-scale boreal forest dieback through their strong influence on productivity, tree mortality and disturbance dynamics.",Earlier springs decrease peak summer productivity in North American boreal forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3322812,"Widely documented for temperate and cold forests in both hemispheres, variations in tree growth responses to climate along environmental gradients have rarely been investigated in the tropics. Seven tree-ring chronologies of Centrolobium microchaete (Fabaceae) in the Cerrado tropical forests of Bolivia are used to determine the growth responses to climate along a precipitation gradient. Chronologies are distributed from the humid Guarayos forests (annual precipitation > 1600 mm) in the transition to the Amazonia to the dry-mesic Chiquitos forests (annual precipitation < 1200 mm) in the proximity to the dry Chaco. On a large spatial scale, radial growth is positively influenced by rainfall and negatively by temperature at the end of the dry season. However, this regional pattern in climate-tree growth relationship shows differences along the precipitation gradient. Relationships with climate are highly significant and extend over longer periods of the year in sites with low rainfall and extremely severe dry seasons. At wet sites, larger water soil capacity and endogenous forest dynamics partially mask the direct influence of climate on tree growth. Stronger similarities in tree-growth responses to climate occur between sites in the dry Central Chiquitos and in the transition to the Guarayos forests. In contrast, the relationships show fewer similarities between sites in the humid Guarayos. We conclude that growth responses to climate in the tropics are more similar between sites with limited rainfall and severe and prolonged dry seasons. Our study points to a convergence in the patterns of growth responses of tropical trees to climate, modulated by scarce rainfall and marked seasonality. The negative impact of water deficits on tree physiological processes induces not only the documented reduction in forest species richness, but also a convergence in tree-growth responses to climate in dry tropical forests.",Convergence in growth responses of tropical trees to climate driven by water stress,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3909736,"Tropical cyclones (TCs) usually cause severe damages and destructions. TC intensity forecasting helps people prepare for the extreme weather and could save lives and properties. Rapid Intensifications (RI) of TCs are the major error sources of TC intensity forecasting. A large number of factors, such as sea surface temperature and wind shear, affect the RI processes of TCs. Quite a lot of work have been done to identify the combination of conditions most favorable to RI. In this study, deep learning method is utilized to combine conditions for RI prediction of TCs. Experiments show that the long short-term memory (LSTM) network provides the ability to leverage past conditions to predict TC rapid intensifications. © Authors 2017.",Leveraging LSTM for rapid intensifications prediction of tropical cyclones,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+117663,"BACKGROUND: Understanding the health impacts of heat waves is important, especially given anticipated increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves due to climate change. OBJECTIVES: We examined mortality from heat waves in seven major Korean cities for 2000 through 2007 and investigated effect modification by individual characteristics and heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). METHODS: Heat waves were defined as >= 2 consecutive days with daily mean temperature at or above the 98th percentile for the warm season in each city. We compared mortality during heat-wave days and non-heat-wave days using city-specific generalized linear models. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate overall effects within and across all cities. In addition, we estimated effects of heat wave characteristics and effects according to cause of death and examined effect modification by individual characteristics for Seoul. RESULTS: Overall, total mortality increased 4.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): -6.1%, 15.4%] during heat waves compared with non-heat-wave days, with an 8.4% increase (95% CI: 0.1%, 17.3%) estimated for Seoul. Estimated mortality was higher for heat waves that were more intense, longer, or earlier in summer, although effects were not statistically significant. Estimated risks were higher for women versus men, older versus younger residents, those with no education versus some education, and deaths that occurred out of hospitals in Seoul, although differences among strata of individual characteristics were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support evidence of mortality impacts from heat waves and have implications for efforts to reduce the public health burden of heat waves.",The Impact of Heat Waves on Mortality in Seven Major Cities in Korea,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+785106,"A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the wide-spread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40-year tree ring record and a 30-year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (-10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (-26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving-window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate-growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the 'climate hiatus'. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone.",Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1294930,"Statistical analyses of yield and climate data across large spatial scales are an important method for exploring crop sensitivity to a variable and changing climate. However, a variety of issues complicate the interpretation of climate impacts on yield, including spatial and temporal collinearity among climate variables and between climate and management variables, as well as complex responses of yield to interactions among climate variables across different growth development phases. All of these issues, if unaccounted for, can compromise yield projections under climate change. In this study, we present a series of nested models to analyze rainfed maize (Zea mays L.) yield response to climate (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation) at specific growth-development phases and under different crop management practices. The models, fit using elastic net regression to address collinearity, indicate that spatial gradients in management, which occur at the same scale as climate variability, explain the majority of location-based and total yield variance. Coefficient estimates of yield responses to high temperature/low precipitation conditions during key growth development phases are consistent with reported physiological responses of maize, but only when interaction terms are included between temperature and precipitation. Yield responses to temperature and solar radiation are also modified by prior temperature regime. Overall, failure to parameterize management practices and interactions between temperature and precipitation leads to systemic errors in models linking maize yields to climate impacts at large spatial scales, both under current and projected climate.",Rainfed maize yield response to management and climate covariability at large spatial scales,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2093360,"Ticks (Ixodida: Argasidae, Ixodidae) are the main arthropod vectors of disease in Central Europe, including Germany. One species, Ixodes ricinus, dominates the tick fauna throughout this area and, as such, is justifiably the most common species studied. However, this concentration on a single species has led to the neglect of a variety of other species, also often common on their wild hosts, and also involved in the natural, zoonotic cycles of disease. In this contribution we provide a checklist of the species currently known to occur in Germany. The information summarized under the endemic species includes general distribution, hosts, and basic ecology, as well as each species' medical and veterinary significance. Our aim is to bring the diversity of species present to the attention of the research community in the hope that the more neglected species will also be integrated into epidemiological models of the tick-borne diseases present.",An annotated checklist of the ticks (Acari: Ixodida) of Germany,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1545906,"Ants are being widely studied in different Brazilian biomes due to their sensitivity to environmental changes. Therefore, in order to evaluate the effect of climatic variables on species richness, as well as the impact caused by vineyards on the epigeic ant fauna in the region of the Pampa biome, more specifically in the physiographic region of Campanha, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, a survey was performed on three farms, for a period of 2 years. On each farm, samples were obtained within the vineyards and in the surrounding grassland vegetation, which is similar to that which preceded the cultivation of vines. Twenty pitfall traps were installed in each environment. A total of 70 species belonging to 24 genera and seven subfamilies were collected. The analysis confirmed that the species richness was influenced by temperature and rainfall, and that the vineyards behave like other agricultural systems, causing a significant change in the structure of the ant assemblage when compared to grassland areas.","Effect of climatic variables and vine crops on the epigeic ant fauna (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in the Campanha region, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+547105,"The impacts of summer heat events on the mortality of the Slovak population, both in total and for selected population sub-groups, are the foci of this study. This research is the first of its kind, focusing on a given population, and therefore one priority was to create a knowledge base for the issue and to basically evaluate existing conditions for the heat-mortality relationship in Slovakia. This article also aims to fill a void in current research on these issues in Europe. In addition to overall effects, we focused individually on the major historical heat events which occurred in the summers of 2007, 2010 and 2012. During the heat events, a non-negligible negative response in mortality was recorded and fatal effects were more pronounced during particularly strong heat events and periods which lasted for two or more days. In general, females and the elderly were the most sensitive groups in the population and mortality was characterized by several specific effects in individual population groups. The most extreme heat periods were commonly followed by a deficit in mortality, corresponding to a short-term mortality displacement, the pattern of which varied in specific cases. In general, displaced mortality appeared to compensate for a large part of heat-induced excess deaths.",The effects of the 1996-2012 summer heat events on human mortality in Slovakia,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1880791,"Monitoring the snow cover changes on Tibet Plateau (TP) is significant to understand the regional impact of ongoing global warming. In this paper, we firstly propose a cloud removal methodology (CRM) to remove the cloud obscuration from MODIS fractional snow cover (FSC) products. Then, the spatial and temporal variations of snow cover over the TP, and how they are related to the changing temperature are analyzed using the cloud removed MODIS FSC data from 2001 to 2011 as well as in-situ temperature data. Results show that the CRM has a higher accuracy in cloud removal (overall mean absolute error is 0.092). There is a very high inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of snow cover in the 11 years. The inter-annual fluctuation of snow cover can be explained by the high negative correlations between the snow cover and the in situ temperature.",MONITORING SNOW COVER CHANGES AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS WITH TEMPERATURE OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU USING MODIS DATA,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+615119,"China is the world's most populous country with only 7% of the world's arable land. Accurate assessment of the effect that future climate change may pose on grain production is essential to the sustainability of agriculture. Model variations plus uncertainties in the future climate change scenarios create a big challenge for such evaluation. In this work, we developed the statistical models for six different regions in China, using the historical yield data between 1981 and 2010 from the National Bureau of Statistics combined with meteorological station observations and analyzed the impact of climate variation (i.e., temperature and precipitation changes) on the grain yields into the 2030s, based on 28 ensemble climate predictions from six state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model outputs. Our results indicate that the four crops (i.e., rice, maize, wheat, and soybean) respond similarly to the climate variation in different regions of China, with the sensitivity to warming increasing from north to south and from inner land to coast regions. In addition, the yields of all the four crops in East and Central-South China are also positively correlated with precipitation change. Future projections with a medium greenhouse gas mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) showed that the yield of the four crops in six regions of China would increase ranging from 0.02 to 1.19 hundred ton/ha, in 2030s with respect to the 2000s. Nevertheless, adaptive implementations such as appropriately improve the irrigation infrastructure in East and Central-South China could mitigate the adverse impact from future climate change.",Regional Grain Yield Response to Climate Change in China: A Statistic Modeling Approach,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+96849,"In this study, change in rainfall, temperature and river discharge are analysed over the last three decades in Central Vietnam. Trends and rainfall indices are evaluated using non-parametric tests at different temporal levels. To overcome the sparse locally available network, the high resolution APHRODITE gridded dataset is used in addition to the existing rain gauges. Finally, existing linkages between discharge changes and trends in rainfall and temperature are explored. Results are indicative of an intensification of rainfall (+15%/decade), with more extreme and longer events. A significant increase in winter rainfall and a decrease in consecutive dry days provides strong evidence for a lengthening wet season in Central Vietnam. In addition, trends based on APHRODITE suggest a strong orographic signal in winter and annual trends. These results underline the local variability in the impacts of climatic change at the global scale. Consequently, it is important that change detection investigations are conducted at the local scale. A very weak signal is detected in the trend of minimum temperature (+0.2 degrees C/decade). River discharge trends show an increase in mean discharge (31 to 35%/decade) over the last decades. Between 54 and 74% of this increase is explained by the increase in precipitation. The maximum discharge also responds significantly to precipitation changes leading to a lengthened wet season and an increase in extreme rainfall events. Such trends can be linked with a likely increase in floods in Central Vietnam, which is important for future adaptation planning and management and flood preparedness in the region. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1286924,"Objectives: Understanding the dynamics of the temperature-mortality relationship is an asset to support public health interventions. We investigated the lag structure of the mortality response to cold and warm temperatures in 18 French cities between 2000 and 2010. Methods: A distributed lag non-linear generalized model using a quasi-Poisson distribution and controlling for classical confounding factors was built in each city. A fitted meta-analytical model combined the city-specific models to derive the best linear unbiased prediction of the association, and a meta-regression explored the influence of background characteristics of the cities. The fraction of mortality attributable to cold and heat was estimated with reference to the minimum mortality temperature. Results: Between 2000 and 2010, 3.9% [CI 95% 3.2:4.6] of the total mortality was attributed to cold, and 1.2% [1.1:1.2] to heat. The immediate increase in mortality following high temperatures was partly compensated by a harvesting effect when temperatures were below the 99.2 percentiles of the mean temperature distributions. Discussion: Cold represents a significant public health burden, mostly driven by moderate temperatures (between percentiles 2.5 and 25). The population is better adapted to warm temperatures, up to a certain intensity when heat becomes an acute environmental health emergency (above percentile 99). The rapid increase in mortality risk at very high temperatures percentiles calls for an active adaptation in a context of climate change.",Heat and cold related-mortality in 18 French cities,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2356265,"The Godavari river basin (GRB), the second largest river basin (312,800km2) in India, was considered in this study to quantify the relative hydrological impact of recent land cover (LC) changes and rainfall trends using the variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model. Three scenarios, namely, (i) LC change, (ii) climate change and (iii) LC and climate changes, were considered to isolate the hydrological implications of the LC changes from those of climate change. Results revealed that evapotranspiration is predominantly governed by LC change and that small changes in rainfall cause greater changes in the runoff. Although the spatial extent of LC change is higher, the climate change is the dominant driver of hydrological changes within the GRB. Thus, climate projections are the key inputs to study the impact on the river basin hydrology. The results provide insights into the impacts of the climate and LC changes on the basin. The methodology and results of the present study can be further considered for water resource planning within the river basin in view of the changing environment.","Relative impact of recent climate and land cover changes in the Godavari river basin, India",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+245814,"Global sea-level rise poses a significant threat not only for coastal communities as development continues but also for national economies. This paper presents estimates of how future changes in relative sea-level rise puts coastal populations at risk, as well as affect overall GDP in the conterminous United States. We use four different sea-level rise scenarios for 2010-2100: a low-end scenario (Extended Linear Trend) a second low-end scenario based on a strong mitigative global warming pathway (Global Warming Coupling 2.6), a high-end scenario based on rising radiative forcing (Global Warming Coupling 8.5) and a plausible very high-end scenario, including accelerated ice cap melting (Global Warming Coupling 8.5+). Relative sea-level rise trends for each US state are employed to obtain more reasonable rates for these areas, as long-term rates vary considerably between the US Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific coasts because of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, local subsidence and sediment compaction, and other vertical land movement. Using these trends for the four scenarios reveals that the relative sea levels predicted by century's end could range - averaged over all states - from 0.2 to 2.0 m above present levels. The estimates for the amount of land inundated vary from 26,000 to 76,000 km(2). Upwards of 1.8 to 7.4 million people could be at risk, and GDP could potentially decline by USD 70-289 billion. Unfortunately, there are many uncertainties associated with the impact estimates due to the limitations of the input data, especially the input elevation data. Taking this into account, even the most conservative scenario shows a significant impact for the US, emphasizing the importance of adaptation and mitigation. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Relative sea-level rise and the conterminous United States: Consequences of potential land inundation in terms of population at risk and GDP loss,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+687249,"Few studies have examined the variation in mortality risk associated with heat during the summer. Here, we apply flexible statistical models to investigate the issue by using a large multicountry data set. We collected daily time-series data of temperature and mortality from 305 locations in 9 countries, in the period 1985-2012. We first estimated the heat-mortality relationship in each location with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models, using a bivariate spline to model the exposure-lag-response over lag 0-10. Estimates were then pooled by country through multivariate meta-analysis. Results provide strong evidence of a reduction in risk over the season. Relative risks for the 99th percentile versus the minimum mortality temperature were in the range of 1.15-2.03 in early summer. In late summer, the excess was substantially reduced or abated, with relative risks in the range of 0.97-1.41 and indications of wider comfort ranges and higher minimum mortality temperatures. The attenuation is mainly due to shorter lag periods in late summer. In conclusion, this multicountry analysis suggests a reduction of heat-related mortality risk over the summer, which can be attributed to several factors, such as true acclimatization, adaptive behaviors, or harvesting effects. These findings may have implications on public health policies and climate change health impact projections.",Changes in Susceptibility to Heat During the Summer: A Multicountry Analysis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1543587,"Confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) have suffered considerable transformations since the last decade in Brazil, because of increasing of their production scale. Swine production is following this same trend, and the volume of manure produced and the form that is managed has a direct impact on houses air quality and efficiency of treatment systems. The objective of this work was to study the manure solid-liquid separation efficiency by screening, subject to different screen opening sizes and pit disposal time under tropical climate conditions. An ammoniacal nitrogen producing rate of 24 mg/L per storage day was observed and a decrease in screen separation efficiency in the first eight days of storage, obtained by solid group analysis. The storage time influenced directly the degradation of organic fraction indicated by the chemical oxygen demand increase overtime. The results suggest that the efficiency of solid-liquid separation is increased when carried out with the shortest storage time. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Effect of storage time on swine manure solid separation efficiency by screening,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2313244,"Current and predicted trends indicate that an increasing proportion of the world's population is living in urban and suburban places. The nature of the urban environment becomes an important factor if we are concerned with the restoration and preservation of biodiversity and ecosystems in and around cities. This article highlights the varied impacts of cities on soils and their implications for restoration planning and expectations of restoration ""success."" Urban soils exist in different historical and formational trajectories than their local nonurbanized counterparts due to direct anthropogenic disturbance and indirect environmental impacts from urbanization. Therefore, urban soils often exhibit altered physical, chemical, and biological characteristics in comparison to local nonurbanized soils. Several unique features of urban soils and urban ecosystems pose particular issues for ecological restoration or the improvement of degraded soil conditions in cities. The creation of novel soil types, conditions that promote invasion by non-natives, the strong influence of past land use on soil properties, and the presence of strong interactions and alternative stable states set up unique difficulties for the restoration of urban soils. Soils in urban restorations are a medium that can be deliberately manipulated to improve site conditions or in the monitoring of soil conditions as indices of ecosystem status. Including an explicit role for strong manipulations of soils in urban ecosystems changes how we approach baselines, management, and reference conditions in urban ecological restoration. With an understanding of urban soil ecological knowledge, we can guide aspects of urban ecological restoration toward successful outcomes.",The Nature of Urban Soils and Their Role in Ecological Restoration in Cities,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1433729,"Links between severe hydrological droughts and weather types (WTs) were explored to improve the understanding of hydroclimatological processes involved in the development of regional hydrological drought in north-western Europe. A new Regional Drought Area Index (RDAI) was developed, using daily streamflow, to represent the drought-affected area. Daily RDAI series (1964-2001) were created for two regions with homogeneous drought behaviour in Denmark and four regions in Great Britain. An objective version of the Hess-Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen yielding 29 WTs was used. Regional drought characteristics, including duration and frequency, were found to vary considerably between regions. However, in 1976 and 1996, all regions experienced severe events, and these years were found to be the most severe drought years across the study region as a whole. The hydrological response time (i.e. the time over which WTs influence drought development) was found to vary markedly (45-210 days) between regions according to basin storage properties. WT-frequency anomalies (FAs) before and during the onset of the five most severe droughts were identified for each region. The dominant drought-yielding WTs changed between regions and between events within each region. High-pressure systems centred over the respective region were most frequently associated with droughts as well as WTs with a northern (N, NE or NW) or a southern (S, SE or SW) airflow over the Danish and British regions. Five of the six WTs associated with drought for all regions represented a northern high-pressure system (i.e. over Great Britain, Fennoscandia or the Norwegian Sea). This article demonstrates (1) hydrological response time to be fundamental in moderating drought response to mesoscale climatic drivers and (2) severe hydrological droughts may be caused by a complex set of hydroclimatological processes that vary between regions and events. Copyright. (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Regional hydrological drought in north-western Europe: linking a new Regional Drought Area Index with weather types,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+510765,"The surface energy fluxes simulated by the CSIRO9 Mark 1 GCM for present and doubled CO2 conditions are analyzed. On the global scale the climatological flux fields are similar to those from four GCMs studied previously. A diagnostic calculation is used to provide estimates of the radiative forcing by the GCM atmosphere. For 1xCO(2), in the global and annual mean, cloud produces a net cooling at the surface of 31 W m(-2). The clear-sky longwave surface greenhouse effect is 311 W m(-2), while the correspond ing shortwave term is -79 W m(-2). As for the other GCM results, the CSIRO9 Delta CO2 surface warming (global mean 4.8 degrees C) is closely related to the increased downward longwave radiation (LW down arrow). Global mean net cloud forcing changes little. The contrast in warming between land and ocean, largely due to the increase in evaporative cooling (E) over ocean, is highlighted. In order to further the understanding of influences on the fluxes, simple physically based linear models are developed using multiple regression. Applied to both 1xCO(2) and Delta CO2 December-February mean tropical fields from CSIRO9, the linear models quite accurately (3-5 W m(-2) for 1xCO(2) and 2-3 W m(-2) for Delta CO2) relate LW down arrow and net shortwave radiation to temperature, surface albedo, the water vapor column, and cloud. The linear models provide alternative estimates of radiative forcing terms to those from the diagnostic calculation. Tropical mean cloud forcings are compared. Over land, E is well correlated with soil moisture, and sensible heat with air-surface temperature difference. However an attempt to relate the spatial variation of LW up arrow within the tropics to that of the nonflux fields had Little success. Regional changes in surface temperature are not linearly related to, for instance, changes in cloud or soil moisture.",Influences on surface energy fluxes in simulated present and doubled CO2 climates,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+626326,"The Quaternary history of Beringia and of the Arctic-Pacific marine connection via the Bering Strait is poorly understood because of the fragmentary stratigraphic record from this region. We report new borehole and seismic-reflection data collected in 2006 in the southwestern Chukchi Sea. Sediment samples were analyzed for magnetic properties, grain size, heavy minerals, and biostratigraphic proxies (spores and pollen, foraminifers, ostracodes, diatoms, and aquatic palynomorphs). Two shallow boreholes drilled between the Chukotka Peninsula and the Wrangel Island recovered sediments of two principal stratigraphic units with a distinct unconformity between them. Based on predominantly reverse paleomagnetic polarity of the lower unit and pollen spectra indicative of forested coasts and climate warmer than present, the age of this unit is estimated as Pliocene to early Pleistocene (broadly between ca. 5 and 2 Ma). Attendant sedimentary environments were likely alluvial to nearshore marine. These deposits can be correlated to the seismic unit infilling valleys incised into sedimentary bedrock across much of the study area, and possibly deposited during a transgression following the opening of the Bering Strait. The upper unit from both boreholes contains Holocene C-14 ages and is clearly related to the last, postglacial transgression. Holocene sediments in Borehole 2 indicate fast deposition at the early stages of flooding (between ca. 11 and 9 ka) to very low deposition, possibly related to expansive sea ice. Closer to shore, deposition at Borehole I resumed much later (ca. 2 ka), likely due to a change in the pattern of coastal erosional processes and/or the demise of a landbridge between the Chukotka Peninsula and the Wrangel Island inferred from studies on mammoth distribution. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Stratigraphy of Late Cenozoic sediments of the western Chukchi Sea: New results from shallow drilling and seismic-reflection profiling,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+476308,"Phenological development of crops has been extensively studied in field experiments but less so at larger scales for which data availability is often limited. To what extent the spatio-temporal variability of crop development can be explained by relationships derived from field studies such as the temperature sum concept used in many crop models is unclear but the question could entail the large scale application of these models. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of crop phenological development in response to temperature and day length. We used a comprehensive dataset (656,234 phenological observations at 6019 observation sites) about the phenology of oat (Avena sativa L) and related climate data from Germany for the period 1959-2009. Our results show that the statistically significant warming trend since 1959 resulted in an earlier onset of all phenological stages and a shortening of most phenological phases with a 17-day earlier onset of yellow ripeness and a shortening of the ""sowing to yellow ripeness"" phase by 14 days. There was also a distinct spatial pattern in phenological development, with differences among eco-regions in the occurrence of development stages of 15-26 days and the length of the phases between stages of 6 and 21 days. Most of this spatio-temporal variability could be explained through the effects of temperature and day length. However, temperature sums (thermal times) and day length corrected temperature sums (photothermal times) also varied in time and space, pointing to the use of different varieties over time and across eco-regions. A considerable part of this variability in temperature sums and photo-thermal times could be explained by the mean temperature during the development periods. This may provide a means of modelling farmers' adaptation to climate change using varieties of different maturity types; but it requires further investigation. The good agreement of the thermal and photo-thermal requirements of oat computed in this study with relationships known from field experiments supports the use of the temperature sum concept for large scale application to simulate crop phenology in response to temperature and day length. The analysis should be extended to other crops and regions to further evaluate the observed spatio-temporal patterns in crop phenology and the relationships explaining these patterns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Spatio-temporal patterns of phenological development in Germany in relation to temperature and day length,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+760890,"In snow-fed inland river systems in the western United States, water supply depends upon timing, form, and amount of precipitation. In recent years, this region has experienced unprecedented drought conditions due to decreased snowpack, exacerbated by exceptionally warmer winter temperatures averaging 3-4 degrees C above normal. In the snow-fed Truckee-Carson River System, two sets of interviews were conducted as part of a larger collaborative modeling case study with local water managers to examine local adaptation to current drought conditions. A comparative analysis of these primary qualitative data, collected during the fourth and fifth consecutive years of continued warmer drought conditions, identifies shifts in adaptation strategies and emergent adaptation barriers. That is, under continuous exposure to climate stressors, managers shifted their adaptation focus from short-term efforts to manage water demand toward long-term efforts to enhance water supply. Managers described the need to: improve forecasts and scientific assessments of snowmelt timing, groundwater levels, and soil moisture content; increase flexibility of prior appropriation water allocation rules based on historical snowpack and streamflow timing; and foster collaboration and communication among water managers across the river system. While water scarcity and insufficient water delivery infrastructure remain significant impediments in this arid region, climate uncertainty emerged as a barrier surrounding adaptation to variable water supply. Existing prior appropriation based water institutions were also described as an adaptation barrier, meriting objective evaluation to assess how to best modify these historical institutions to support dynamic adaptation to climate-induced water supply variability. This study contributes to a growing body of research that assesses drought adaptation in snow-fed inland river systems, and contributes a unique report concerning how adaptation strategies and barriers encountered by local water managers change over time under continuous exposure to climate stressors. These locally identified adaptation strategies forward a larger collaborative modeling case study by informing alternative water management scenarios simulated through a suite of hydrologic and operations models tailored to this river system.","Adapting to Variable Water Supply in the Truckee-Carson River System, Western USA",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2325427,"Phenology of plants is important for ecological interactions. The timing and development of green leaves, plant maturity, and senescence affects biophysical interactions of plants with the environment. In this study we explored the agreement between land-based camera and satellite-based phenology metrics to quantify plant phenology and phenophases dates in five plant community types characteristic of the semi-arid cold desert region of the Great Basin. Three years of data were analyzed. We calculated the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for both land-based cameras (i.e., phenocams) and Landsat imagery. NDVI from camera images was calculated by taking a standard RGB (red, green, and blue) image and then a near infrared (NIR) plus RGB image. Phenocam NDVI was calculated by extracting the red digital number (DN) and the NIR DN from images taken a few seconds apart. Landsat has a spatial resolution of 30 m(2), while phenocam spatial resolution can be analyzed at the single pixel level at the scale of cm(2) or area averaged regions can be analyzed with scales up to 1 km(2). For this study, phenocam regions of interest were used that approximated the scale of at least one Landsat pixel. In the tall-statured pinyon and juniper woodland sites, there was a lack of agreement in NDVI between phenocam and Landsat NDVI, even after using National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery to account for fractional coverage of pinyon and juniper versus interspace in the phenocam data. Landsat NDVI appeared to be dominated by the signal from the interspace and was insensitive to subtle changes in the pinyon and juniper tree canopy. However, for short-statured sagebrush shrub and meadow communities, there was good agreement between the phenocam and Landsat NDVI as reflected in high Pearson's correlation coefficients (r > 0.75). Due to greater temporal resolution of the phenocams with images taken daily, versus the 16-day return interval of Landsat, phenocam data provided more utility in determining important phenophase dates: start of season, peak of season, and end of season. More specific species-level information can be obtained with the high temporal resolution of phenocams, but only for a limited number of sites, while Landsat can provide the multi-decadal history and spatial coverage that is unmatched by other platforms. The agreement between Landsat and phenocam NDVI for short-statured plant communities of the Great Basin, shows promise for monitoring landscape and regional-level plant phenology across large areas and time periods, with phenocams providing a more comprehensive understanding of plant phenology at finer spatial scales, and Landsat extending the historical record of observations.",Comparison of Landsat and Land-Based Phenology Camera Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for Dominant Plant Communities in the Great Basin,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+774813,"Prolonged periods of extreme heat or drought in the first year after fire affect the resilience and diversity of fire-dependent ecosystems by inhibiting seed germination or increasing mortality of seedlings and resprouting individuals. This interaction between weather and fire is of growing concern as climate changes, particularly in systems subject to stand-replacing crown fires, such as most Mediterranean-type ecosystems. We examined the longest running set of permanent vegetation plots in the Fynbos of South Africa (44 y), finding a significant decline in the diversity of plots driven by increasingly severe postfire summer weather events (number of consecutive days with high temperatures and no rain) and legacy effects of historical woody alien plant densities 30 y after clearing. Species that resprout after fire and/or have graminoid or herb growth forms were particularly affected by postfire weather, whereas all species were sensitive to invasive plants. Observed differences in the response of functional types to extreme postfire weather could drive major shifts in ecosystem structure and function such as altered fire behavior, hydrology, and carbon storage. An estimated 0.5 degrees C increase in maximum temperature tolerance of the species sets unique to each survey further suggests selection for species adapted to hotter conditions. Taken together, our results show climate change impacts on biodiversity in the hyperdiverse Cape Floristic Region and demonstrate an important interaction between extreme weather and disturbance by fire that may make flammable ecosystems particularly sensitive to climate change.",Intensifying postfire weather and biological invasion drive species loss in a Mediterranean-type biodiversity hotspot,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2360154,"Human disturbance is a leading ecosystem stressor. Human-induced modifications include transportation networks, areal disturbances due to resource extraction, and recreation activities. High-resolution imagery and object-oriented classification rather than pixel-based techniques have successfully identified roads, buildings, and other anthropogenic features. Three commercial, automated feature-extraction software packages (Visual Learning Systems' Feature Analyst, ENVI Feature-Extraction, and Definiens Developer) were evaluated by comparing their ability to effectively detect the disturbed surface patterns from motorized vehicle traffic. Each package achieved overall accuracies in the 70% range, demonstrating the potential to map the surface patterns. The Definiens classification was more consistent and statistically valid.",An Evaluation of Object-Oriented Image Analysis Techniques to Identify Motorized Vehicle Effects in Semi-arid to Arid Ecosystems of the American West,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+338678,"Background: Research in mainly developed countries has shown that some changes in weather are associated with increased mortality. However, due to the lack of accessible data, few studies have examined such effects of weather on mortality, particularly in rural regions in developing countries. Objective: In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between temperature and rainfall with daily mortality in rural India. Design: Daily mortality data were obtained from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in Vadu, India. Daily mean temperature and rainfall data were obtained from a regional meteorological center, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune. A Poisson regression model was established over the study period (January 2003-May 2010) to assess the short-term relationship between weather variables and total mortality, adjusting for time trends and stratifying by both age and sex. Result: Mortality was found to be significantly associated with daily ambient temperatures and rainfall, after controlling for seasonality and long-term time trends. Children aged 5 years or below appear particularly susceptible to the effects of warm and cold temperatures and heavy rainfall. The population aged 20-59 years appeared to face increased mortality on hot days. Most age groups were found to have increased mortality rates 7-13 days after rainfall events. This association was particularly evident in women. Conclusion: We found the level of mortality in Vadu HDSS in rural India to be highly affected by both high and low temperatures and rainfall events, with time lags of up to 2 weeks. These results suggest that weatherrelated mortality may be a public health problem in rural India today. Furthermore, as changes in local climate occur, adaptation measures should be considered to mitigate the potentially negative impacts on public health in these rural communities.",The short-term association of temperature and rainfall with mortality in Vadu Health and Demographic Surveillance System: a population level time series analysis,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+624803,"A North Carolina reef fish community was resurveyed with scuba gear to determine if changes occurred in community structure after 15 years of intense fishing. Generally, fishes important in the recreational and commercial fisheries were smaller. and large changes occurred in relative abundance and species composition. Indicative of a warming trend, total species corn position of fishes had become more tropical, and a tropical sponge previously unrecorded at this latitude off the North Carolina coast became common. Two new (to the area) families and 29 new species of tropical fishes were recorded. Observations of 28 species of tropical reef fishes increased significantly. No new temperate species were observed, and the most abundant temperate species decreased by a factor of 22. Mean monthly bottom water temperatures in winter were 1-6 degrees C warmer during the recent study. An increase in fish-cleaning symbiosis was especially noticeable.",Changes in a North Carolina reef fish community after 15 years of intense fishing - Global warming implications,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+222155,"The Northern Hemisphere has been warmer since 1980 than at any other time during the last 2000 years. The observed increase in temperature has been generally higher in northern than in southern European seas, and higher in enclosed than in open seas. Although European marine ecosystems are influenced by many other factors, such as nutrient enrichment and overfishing, every region has shown at least some changes that were most likely attributable to recent climate change. It is expected that within open systems there will generally be (further) northward movement of species, leading to a switch from polar to more temperate species in the northern seas such as the Arctic, Barents Sea and the Nordic Seas, and subtropical species moving northward to temperate regions such as the Iberian upwelling margin. For seas that are highly influenced by river runoff, such as the Baltic Sea, an increase in freshwater due to enhanced rainfall will lead to a shift from marine to more brackish and even freshwater species. If semi-enclosed systems such as the Mediterranean and the Black Sea lose their endemic species, the associated niches will probably be filled by species originating from adjacent waters and, possibly, with species transported from one region to another via ballast water and the Suez Canal. A better understanding of potential climate change impacts (scenarios) at both regional and local levels, the development of improved methods to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections, the construction of usable climate change indicators, and an improvement of the interface between science and policy formulation in terms of risk assessment will be essential to formulate and inform better adaptive strategies to address the inevitable consequences of climate change. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Impacts of climate change on European marine ecosystems: Observations, expectations and indicators",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+761232,"New transit development often try to provide low-carbon mobility, and improve accessibility. However, it is often unclear who profits most from new transit developments, whether these transit developments can improve equity, and if yes, in which dimensions. Here we study the change in quality of life, instrumentalised as perceived and measured social capital, socio-economic well-being, and quality of public infrastructure after transit developments in Medellin, Columbia. We make use of a detailed questionnaire of 187 questions from 2009 and 2012, aggregate responses into 14 indicators, and compare changes in quality of life between three transit developments zones (comunas), three non-intervention zones, and between income levels and gender. We find that equity improved overall across geographical zones, income, and gender, even as changes in specific quality of life dimensions varied. Our results demonstrate that well-designed transit interventions and participatory planning processes can make cities not only more climate friendly but also more equal.","Lifting peripheral fortunes: Upgrading transit improves spatial, income and gender equity in Medellin",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+92387,"Since 2000, a disease displaying white-syndrome characteristics has been observed affecting corals from the genus Turbinaria in the Solitary Islands Marine Park, New South Wales, Australia. Recently termed Australian subtropical white syndrome, this disease is transmissible through direct contact and by a predatory vector, but transmission through the water column has not been observed. In aquarium experiments, progressive tissue loss, extending from the region where healthy Turbinaria mesenterina fragments were in direct contact with samples of diseased coral, was noted in 66% of treatments. No tissue loss occurred in any of the controls or when healthy fragments were not in direct contact with diseased corals. Field experiments confirmed that the disease was infectious through direct contact. Further experiments showed that the rate of tissue loss was significantly higher when corals were exposed to summer temperatures (26 degrees C). These results suggest that temperature increases predicted in most climate change models could lead to the loss of dominant coral species, displacing other organisms that rely on corals for food and shelter. Finally, the present study showed that removal of the disease margin provides a management tool to minimise coral tissue loss during an epizootic.","Australian subtropical white syndrome: a transmissible, temperature-dependent coral disease",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1394557,"Residential combined heat and power (CHP) systems using fuel cell technology can provide both electricity and heat and can substantially reduce the energy and environmental impact associated with residential applications. The energy, environmental, and economic characteristics of fuel cell CHP systems are investigated for single-family residential applications. Hourly energy use profiles for electricity and thermal energy are determined for typical residential applications. A mathematical model of a residential fuel cell based CHP system is developed. The CHP system incorporates a fuel cell system to supply electricity and thermal energy, a vapor compression heat pump to provide cooling in the summer and heating in the winter and a thermal storage tank to help match the available thermal energy to the thermal energy needs. The performance of the system is evaluated for different climates. Results from the study include an evaluation of the major design parameters of the system, load duration curves, an evaluation of the effect of climate on energy use characteristics, an assessment of the reduction in emissions, and a comparison of the life cycle cost of the fuel cell based CHP system to the life cycle costs of conventional residential energy systems. The results suggest that the fuel cell CHP system provides substantial energy and environmental benefits but that the cost of the fuel cell sub-system must be reduced to roughly $5001kWe before the system can be economically justified.","Evaluation of energy, environmental, and economic characteristics of fuel cell combined heat and power systems for residential applications",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+740473,"Fire is a natural disturbance that exerts an important influence on global ecosystems, affecting vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. However, human-induced changes to fire regimes may affect at-risk species groups such as small mammals. We examine the effect of fire on small mammals and evaluate the relative sensitivity to fire among different groups using a systematic review methodology that included critiquing the literature with respect to survey design and statistical analysis. Overall, small mammal abundance is slightly higher, and demographic parameters more favourable, in unburnt sites compared to burnt sites. This was more pronounced in species with body size range of 101-1000 g and with habitat requirements that are sensitive to fire (e.g. dense ground cover): in 66.6 and 69.7% of pairwise comparisons, abundance or a demographic parameter were higher in unburnt than burnt sites. This systematic review demonstrates that there remains a continued focus on simple shifts in abundance with regards to effect of fire and small mammals, which limits understanding of mechanisms responsible for change. Body size and habitat preference were most important in explaining variation in small mammal species' responses to fire.",Effect of fire on small mammals: a systematic review,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+713867,"We examined the effects of past and future climate change on natural snow cover in southeastern mainland Australia and assessed the role of snowmaking in adapting to projected changes in snow conditions. Snow-depth data from 4 alpine sites from 1957 to 2002 indicated a weak decline in maximum snow depths at 3 sites and a moderate decline in mid- to late-season snow depths (August to September). Low-impact and high-impact climate change scenarios were prepared for 2020 and 2050 and used as input for a climate-driven snow model. The total area with an average of at least 1 d of snow cover per year was projected to decrease by 10 to 39% by 2020, and by 22 to 85 % by 2050. By 2020, the length of the ski season was projected to have decreased by 10 to 60 %, while by 2050 the decrease was 15 to 99 %. Based on target snow-depth profiles from May to September nominated by snowmaking managers at various ski resorts, the snow model simulated the amount of snow that is needed to be made each day, taking into account natural snowfall, snow-melt and the pre-existing natural snow depth. By the year 2020, an increase of 11 to 27 % in the number of snow guns would be required for the low impact scenario, and 71 to 200 % for the high impact scenario. This corresponds to changes in total snow volume of 5 to 17 % for the low impact scenario to 23 to 62 % for the high impact scenario. Therefore, with sufficient investment in snow guns, the Australian ski industry may be able to manage the effect of projected climate change on snow cover until at least 2020.",Climate change effects on snow conditions in mainland Australia and adaptation at ski resorts through snowmaking,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1502652,"Drought is a climatic event that can cause significant damage both in natural environment and in human lives. Drought forecasting is an important issue in water resource planning. Due to the stochastic behaviour of droughts, a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model was applied to forecast monthly streamflow in a small watershed in Galicia (NW Spain). A better streamflow forecast obtained when the Martone index was included in the model as explanatory variable. After forecasting 12 leading month streamflow, three drought thresholds: streamflow mean, monthly streamflow mean and standardized streamflow index were chosen. Both observed and forecasted streamflow showed no drought evidence in this basin.",Streamflow drought time series forecasting: a case study in a small watershed in North West Spain,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+237860,"Climate change can affect organisms both directly via physiological stress and indirectly via changing relationships among species. However, we do not fully understand how changing interspecific relationships contribute to community- and ecosystem-level responses to environmental forcing. I used experiments and spatial and temporal comparisons to demonstrate that warming substantially reduces predator-free space on rocky shores. The vertical extent of mussel beds decreased by 51% in 52 years, and reproductive populations of mussels disappeared at several sites. Prey species were able to occupy a hot, extralimital site if predation pressure was experimentally reduced, and local species richness more than doubled as a result. These results suggest that anthropogenic climate change can alter interspecific interactions and produce unexpected changes in species distributions, community structure, and diversity.","Climate Change, Keystone Predation, and Biodiversity Loss",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1024638,"Road authorities, freight, and logistic industries face a multitude of challenges in a world changing at an ever growing pace. While globalization, changes in technology, demography, and traffic, for instance, have received much attention over the bygone decades, climate change has not been treated with equal care until recently. However, since it has been recognized that climate change jeopardizes many business areas in transport, freight, and logistics, research programs investigating future threats have been initiated. One of these programs is the Conference of European Directors of Roads' (CEDR) Transnational Research Programme (TRP), which emerged about a decade ago from a cooperation between European National Road Authorities and the EU. This paper presents findings of a CEDR project called CliPDaR, which has been designed to answer questions from road authorities concerning climate-driven future threats to transport infrastructure. Pertaining results are based on two potential future socio-economic pathways of mankind (one strongly economically oriented ""A2"" and one more balanced scenario ""A1B""), which are used to drive global climate models (GCMs) producing global and continental scale climate change projections. In order to achieve climate change projections, which are valid on regional scales, GCM projections are downscaled by regional climate models. Results shown here originate from research questions raised by European Road Authorities. They refer to future occurrence frequencies of severely cold winter seasons in Fennoscandia, to particularly hot summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula and to changes in extreme weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting in Central Europe. Future occurrence frequencies of extreme winter and summer conditions are investigated by empirical orthogonal function analyses of GCM projections driven with by A2 and A1B pathways. The analysis of future weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events requires downscaled climate change projections. Hence, corresponding results are based on an ensemble of RCM projections, which was available for the A1B scenario. All analyzed risks to transport infrastructure are found to increase over the decades ahead with accelerating pace towards the end of this century. Mean Fennoscandian winter temperatures by the end of this century may match conditions of rather warm winter season experienced in the past and particularly warm future winter temperatures have not been observed so far. This applies in an even more pronounced manner to summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula. Occurrence frequencies of extreme climate phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events in Central Europe are also projected to rise. Results show spatially differentiated patterns and indicate accelerated rates of increases.",Climate Change driven evolution of hazards to Europe's transport infrastructure throughout the twenty-first century,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1302301,"An emerging literature discusses the effects of short-term temperature fluctuations on public opinion toward climate change. Yet, prior literature has not explored potential opinion-influencing effects of temporal patterns of temperature fluctuations or the interdependence between temperature anomalies and the direction and magnitude of short-term trends. This study uses an extreme warm spell that occurred during a survey of Michigan residents to evaluate the influence of complex temperature effects on public support for government involvement in the agricultural sector's adaptation to climate change. Comparison of several alternatives for capturing the influence of temperature fluctuations on survey responses (some drawn from the literature, some newly constructed) shows a temporary increase in support for government assistance for adaptation after the onset of a warm spell, but a longer exposure to extreme temperatures does not necessarily lead to more support for adaptation policies. Conditional on other attributes of temperature abnormalities (e.g., direction of trend), abnormal heat might even lead to reduced support for adaptation policies.",The Influence of an Extreme Warm Spell on Public Support for Government Involvement in Climate Change Adaptation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3171149,"Cumulative CO2 emissions are a robust predictor of mean temperature increase. However, many societal impacts are driven by exposure to extreme weather conditions. Here, we show that cumulative emissions can be robustly linked to regional changes of a heat exposure indicator, as well as the resulting socioeconomic impacts associated with labour productivity loss in vulnerable economic sectors. We estimate historical and future increases in heat exposure using simulations from eight Earth System Models. Both the global intensity and spatial pattern of heat exposure evolve linearly with cumulative emissions across scenarios (1%CO2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The pattern of heat exposure at a given level of global temperature increase is strongly affected by non-CO2 forcing. Global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions amplify heat exposure, while high local emissions of aerosols could moderate exposure. Considering CO2 forcing only, we commit ourselves to an additional annual loss of labour productivity of about 2% of total GDP per unit of trillion tonne of carbon emitted. This loss doubles when adding non-CO2 forcing of the RCP8.5 scenario. This represents an additional economic loss of about 4,400 G$ every year (i.e. 0.59 $/tCO(2)), varying across countries with generally higher impact in lower-income countries.",Exposure to excessive heat and impacts on labour productivity linked to cumulative CO2 emissions,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+299782,"Viral lysis of phytoplankton constrains marine primary production, food web dynamics and biogeochemical cycles in the ocean. Yet, little is known about the biogeographical distribution of viral lysis rates across the global ocean. To address this, we investigated phytoplankton group-specific viral lysis rates along a latitudinal gradient within the North Atlantic Ocean. The data show large-scale distribution patterns of different virus groups across the North Atlantic that are associated with the biogeographical distributions of their potential microbial hosts. Average virus-mediated lysis rates of the picocyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus were lower than those of the picoeukaryotic and nanoeukaryotic phytoplankton (that is, 0.14 per day compared with 0.19 and 0.23 per day, respectively). Total phytoplankton mortality (virus plus grazer-mediated) was comparable to the gross growth rate, demonstrating high turnover rates of phytoplankton populations. Virus-induced mortality was an important loss process at low and mid latitudes, whereas phytoplankton mortality was dominated by microzooplankton grazing at higher latitudes (>56 degrees N). This shift from a viral-lysis-dominated to a grazing-dominated phytoplankton community was associated with a decrease in temperature and salinity, and the decrease in viral lysis rates was also associated with increased vertical mixing at higher latitudes. Ocean-climate models predict that surface warming will lead to an expansion of the stratified and oligotrophic regions of the world's oceans. Our findings suggest that these future shifts in the regional climate of the ocean surface layer are likely to increase the contribution of viral lysis to phytoplankton mortality in the higher-latitude waters of the North Atlantic, which may potentially reduce transfer of matter and energy up the food chain and thus affect the capacity of the northern North Atlantic to act as a long-term sink for CO2.",Latitudinal variation in virus-induced mortality of phytoplankton across the North Atlantic Ocean,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+794598,"The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increased attention as Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, causing globally significant carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere. We used a process-based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore peat carbon (C) dynamics of several management scenarios within the context of simulated twenty-first century climate change. Simulations of all scenarios with land use, including restoration, indicated net C losses over the twenty-first century ranging from 10 to 100 % of pre-disturbance values. Fire can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. Simulated 100 years of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) cultivation with an initial prescribed burn resulted in 2400-3000 Mg CO2 ha(-1) total emissions. Simulated restoration following one 25-year oil palm rotation reduced total emissions to 440-1200 Mg CO2 ha(-1), depending on climate. These results suggest that even under a very optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one third of the peat C lost to the atmosphere from 25 years of oil palm cultivation can be recovered in the following 75 years if the site is restored. Emissions from a simulated land degradation scenario were most sensitive to climate, with total emissions ranging from 230 to 10,600 Mg CO2 ha(-1) over 100 years for the wettest and driest dry season scenarios, respectively. The large difference was driven by increased fire probability. Therefore, peat fire suppression is an effective management tool to maintain tropical peatland C stocks in the near term and should be a high priority for climate mitigation efforts. In total, we estimate emissions from current cleared peatlands and peatlands converted to oil palm in Southeast Asia to be 8.7 Gt CO2 over 100 years with a moderate twenty-first century climate. These emissions could be minimized by effective fire suppression and hydrological restoration.","Impacts of land use, restoration, and climate change on tropical peat carbon stocks in the twenty-first century: implications for climate mitigation",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1553218,"Legionnaires' disease (LD) is caused by the inhalation of aerosols containing Legionella, a Gramnegative bacteria. Previous national-or regional-level studies have suggested an impact of climate on LD incidence. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of temperature, rainfall, and atmospheric pressure on short-term variations in LD notification rate. EU/EEA Member States report their LD surveillance data to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Community-acquired LD cases reported by Denmark, Germany, Italy, and The Netherlands with onset date in 2007-2012 were aggregated by onset week and region of residence. Weather variables were extracted from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project. We fitted Poisson regression models to estimate the association between meteorological variables and the weekly number of community-acquired LD cases. Temperature, rainfall and atmospheric pressure were all associated with LD risk with higher risk associated with simultaneous increase in temperature and rainfall. Temperatures >20 degrees C were not associated with a higher risk for LD. LD cases occurring during wintertime may be associated with sources less influenced by meteorological conditions.","Short-term effects of atmospheric pressure, temperature, and rainfall on notification rate of community-acquired Legionnaires' disease in four European countries",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+383830,"There is ample evidence of the ecological impacts of climate change, and treeline ecotones resulting from environmental gradients are a particularly sensitive indicator of climate change. However, the response of alpine treelines to climatic variability in semiarid mountain regions is not clearly understood. In this study, we analyzed the impacts of temperature and precipitation on tree recruitment in treeline ecotones in the Qilian Mountains of northwestern China from 1957 to 2007. The results showed that climate warming has increased tree recruitment. Tree recruitment was significantly positively correlated with the mean growing season temperature and with the mean minimum temperature in June and in winter. Treeline elevation shifted upward by 5.7 to 13.6 m from 1907 to 1957 and by 6.1 to 10.4 m from 1957 to 1980, but did not appear to change after 1980. Our results suggest that temperature controls treeline dynamics more strongly than precipitation in the Qilian Mountains, and support the hypothesis that treeline dynamics are strongly linked to growing season and winter temperatures. FOR. SCI. 59 (1):118-126.","Response of Tree Recruitment to Climatic Variability in the Alpine Treeline Ecotone of the Qilian Mountains, Northwestern China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+222422,"A 1.5-m-long core from a bat guano deposit in Zidita Cave (western Romania) has provided a 900-year record of environmental change. Shifts in delta C-13 values of bulk guano (between -22.6 and 027.5 parts per thousand) combined with guano-sourced pollen and microcharcoal information show significant changes in the structure of vegetation and plant biomass. Cave guano delta C-13 values reflect the dietary preferences of bats which are controlled by local vegetation dynamics, which in turn depend on local climatic conditions. Neither delta C-13 values nor pollen association in guano changed strikingly over the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) transition. Instead, an overall decreasing trend of delta C-13 values between ca. AD 1200 and 1870-1900 defines the duration of LIA. A shift toward cooler and wetter conditions at ca. AD 1500 noticed in the pollen record by an increase in Fagus sylvatica and Alnus and the decrease of Carpinus betulus, may indicate the first major change at the beginning of the LIA. Evidence for two major cold spells occurring around AD 1500 and ca. AD 1870 comes from both delta C-13 and pollen record. In between these events, the cave region experienced a warmer and drier climate but colder and wetter than the MWP, favouring the expansion of Quercus, Fraxinus and Tilia simultaneously with the decrease of E sylvatica and Poaceae. Human impact in the studied area is mainly related to agriculture, grazing and deforestation. The effects are most pronounced after AD 1845 when the pollen of cereals increases and Zea is recorded (AD 1845). Higher percentages of microcharcoal particles in the guano sequence are generally correlated with agricultural activities like land cleaning via controlled fires. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","A Late Holocene environmental history of a bat guano deposit from Romania: an isotopic, pollen and microcharcoal study",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1519862,"The control of micronutrient application in cucumber cultivation has great importance as they participate in many functions of metabolism. In addition, micronutrient application efficiency is fundamental to avoid periods of overconsumption or deficits in the crop. To determine micronutrient accumulation using a dynamic model, two cycles of Vitaly and Luxell cucumber crops were grown. During the development of the crop, micronutrient content (Fe, B, Mn, Cu, and Zn) in the different organs of the cucumber plant was quantified. The model dynamically simulated the accumulation of biomass and micronutrients using climatic variables recorded inside the greenhouse as inputs. It was found that a decrease in photosynthetically active radiation and temperature significantly diminished the accumulation of biomass by the cucumber plants. On the other hand, the results demonstrated that the model efficiently simulated both the accumulation of biomass and micronutrients in a cucumber crop. The efficiency evaluation showed values higher than R-2 > 0.95. This dynamic model can be useful to define adequate strategies for the management of cucumber cultivation in greenhouses as well as the application of micronutrients.",Determination of Micronutrient Accumulation in Greenhouse Cucumber Crop Using a Modeling Approach,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+56276,"The US Vice President Al Gore has announced that the administration would seek $366 million, a 28% increase in spending for high-end information technology research. The new, primarily civilian, program would involve six federal agencies and has the promise of driving computer applications in science to new levels of understanding of hugely complex interactions, from simulating drug reactions in the human body to determining the impact of an enormous number of variables on global warming. Called IT2 - Information Technology for the 21st Century, the program's aim of revolutionizing information technology research will rely mostly on university-based research, which will receive 60% of the funds. However, the Vice President set a goal of a civilian computer system with a speed of 100 trillion operations per second by 2004, putting it on a par with DOE's Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative, which will be used to simulate nuclear weapons.","Stronger, faster computing for all supporters say federal research proposal will blast information technology into the next century",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3928426,"Green roofs have the potential to retain stormwater on the roof surface and lower the thermal loading on buildings. Because of this, the greatest environmental benefits from green roofs might be achieved in subtropical climates characterized by high temperatures and intense rain events. There is, however, little research to support this. In a replicated study in Texas, we compared the performance of six different extensive green roof designs vegetated with native species, to non-reflective (black) roofs, and reflective (white) roofs. Preliminary hydrologic and thermal profile data indicated not only differences between green and non-vegetated roofs, but also among green roof designs. Maximum green roof temperatures were cooler than conventional roofs by 38°C at the roof membrane and 18°C inside air temperature, with little variation among green roofs. Maximum run-off retention was 88% and 44% for medium and large rain events but some green roof types showed very limited retention characteristics. These data demonstrate indicate that: 1. Green roofs can greatly affect the roof temperature profile-cooling surface layers and internal space on warm days. 2. Green roofs can retain significant amounts of rainfall, this is dependent on the size of the rain event and design and can fail if not designed correctly. We suggest that as green roofs vary so much in their design and performance, they must be designed according to specific goals rather than relying on assumed intrinsic attributes. © 2008 Springer Science + Business Media, LLC.",Green roofs are not created equal: The hydrologic and thermal performance of six different extensive green roofs and reflective and non-reflective roofs in a sub-tropical climate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3303272,"This study describes time series analysis of snow-melt, radiation data and energy balance for a seasonal snow cover at Dhundi field station of SASE, which lies in Pir Panjal range of the N-W Himalaya, for a winter season from 13 January to 12 April 2005. The analysis shows that mean snow surface temperature remains very close to the melting temperature of snow. It was found close to -1A degrees C for the complete observational period which makes the snow pack at Dhundi moist from its beginning. The average air temperature over this period was found to be 3.5A degrees C with hourly average variation from -5.5A degrees C to 13A degrees C. The snow surface at this station received a mean short wave radiation of 430W m(-2), out of which 298W m(-2) was reflected back by the snow surface with mean albedo value of 0.70. The high average temperature and more absorption of solar radiation resulted in higher thermal state of the snowpack which was further responsible for faster and higher densification of the snowpack. Net radiation energy was the major component of surface energy budget with a mean value of 83W m(-2). Bulk transfer model was used to calculate turbulent fluxes. The net energy was utilized for satisfying cold content and snow-melt by using measured snow surface temperature and density of snow pack. The mean square error between calculated and measured daily snow-melt was found to be approximately 6.6mm of water equivalent.",Surface energy balance of seasonal snow cover for snow-melt estimation in N-W Himalaya,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3940840,"This chapter describes the changing cultural background of health care from which any service is delivered. In particular, the authors hope to outline cultural, educational, technical and environmental changes that have been used as opportunities to develop a quality-assessed outpatient hysteroscopic service. Examined within the chapter will be the roles and limitations of evaluation and audit, research and the multidisciplinary team. The importance of process, relationships and collaborative working within organizations will be explored, and outpatient hysteroscopy will be used as a working example of how these inform a model of practice development. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Standard setting for outpatient gynaecology procedures: A multidisciplinary framework for implementation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+41071,"This chapter addresses changes in weather and climate events relevant to extreme impacts and disasters. An extreme (weather or climate) event is generally defined as the occurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends (‘tails’) of the range of observed values of the variable. Some climate extremes (e.g., droughts, floods) may be the result of an accumulation of weather or climate events that are, individually, not extreme themselves (though their accumulation is extreme). As well, weather or climate events, even if not extreme in a statistical sense, can still lead to extreme conditions or impacts, either by crossing a critical threshold in a social, ecological, or physical system, or by occurring simultaneously with other events. A weather system such as a tropical cyclone can have an extreme impact, depending on where and when it approaches landfall, even if the specific cyclone is not extreme relative to other tropical cyclones. Conversely, not all extremes necessarily lead to serious impacts. [3.1] Many weather and climate extremes are the result of natural climate variability (including phenomena such as El Niño), and natural decadal or multi-decadal variations in the climate provide the backdrop for anthropogenic climate changes. Even if there were no anthropogenic changes in climate, a wide variety of natural weather and climate extremes would still occur. [3.1] A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of weather and climate extremes, and can result in unprecedented extremes. Changes in extremes can also be directly related to changes in mean climate, because mean future conditions in some variables are projected to lie within the tails of present-day conditions. Nevertheless, changes in extremes of a climate or weather variable are not always related in a simple way to changes in the mean of the same variable, and in some cases can be of opposite sign to a change in the mean of the variable. Changes in phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation or monsoons could affect the frequency and intensity of extremes in several regions simultaneously. © Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2012.",Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+636168,"The changes in runoff and sediment load in the Loess Plateau of China have received considerable attention owing to their dramatic decline during recent decades. In this paper, the impacts of land-use and climate changes on water and sediment yields in the Huangfuchuan River basin (HFCRB) of the Loess Plateau are investigated by combined usage of statistical tests, hydrological modeling, and land-use maps. The temporal trends and abrupt changes in runoff and sediment loads during 1954-2012 are detected by using non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests. The land-use changes between 1980 and 2005 are determined by using transition matrix analysis, and the effects of land-use and climate changes on water and sediment yields are assessed by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model and four scenarios, respectively. The results show significant decreasing trends in both annual runoff and sediment loads, whereas slightly decreasing and significantly increasing trends are detected for annual precipitation and air temperature, respectively. 1984 is identified as the dividing year of the study period. The land-use changes between 1980 and 2005 show significant effects of the Grain for Green Project in China. Both land-use change and climate change have greater impact on the reduction of sediment yield than that of water. Water and sediment yields in the upstream region show more significant decreases than those in the downstream region under different effects. The results obtained in this study can provide useful information for water resource planning and management as well as soil and water conservation in the Loess Plateau region. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Assessing the effects of changes in land use and climate on runoff and sediment yields from a watershed in the Loess Plateau of China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1301536,"A platform compatible with microtiter plates to parallelize environmental treatments to test the complex impacts of multiple stressors, including parameters relevant to climate change and point source pollutants is developed. This platform leverages (1) the high rate of purely diffusive gas transport in aerogels to produce well-defined centimeter-scale gas concentration gradients, (2) spatial light control, and (3) established automated liquid handling. The parallel gaseous, aqueous, and light control provided by the platform is compatible with multiparameter experiments across the life sciences. The platform is applied to measure biological effects in over 700 treatments in a five-parameter full factorial study with the microalgae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. Further, the CO2 response of multicellular organisms, Lemna gibba and Artemia salina under surfactant and nanomaterial stress are tested with the platform.",A Platform for High-Throughput Assessments of Environmental Multistressors,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+447431,"Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) populations that spawn in the coastal rivers of Oregon, U.S.A., formerly supported robust fisheries but are now listed as a ""threatened species"" under the U. S. Endangered Species Act. Climate change is an increasing concern in salmon conservation, and we assess the effects of climate change on sustainability of this population group. Four distinct habitats are important to different life-history stages of coho salmon: terrestrial forests, freshwater rivers and lakes, estuaries, and the ocean. Each of these habitats is affected by multiple aspects of climate change, resulting in a complex web of pathways influencing sustainability. We summarize regional climate change studies to predict future climate patterns affecting these habitats, identify the ecological pathways by which these patterns affect coho salmon, and review coho salmon ecology to assess the likely direction and magnitude of population response. Despite substantial uncertainties in specific effects and variations in effects among populations, the preponderance of negative effects throughout the life cycle indicates a significant climate-driven risk to future sustainability of these populations. We recommend that management policies for all four habitats focus on maximizing resilience to the effects of climate change as it interacts with other natural and anthropogenic changes.",Effects of Climate Change on Oregon Coast Coho Salmon: Habitat and Life-Cycle Interactions,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+794537,"Contrasted response of Quercus macrolepis growth to climate conditions during summer months indicated increased climate-related control of tree growth at high elevation site modulated by topographic characteristics and tree age. High climatic variability and increased drought conditions lead to reduced growth and increased mortality of several tree species in Mediterranean regions, and other parts of the world. We have evaluated the impact of climate variability (temperature and precipitation) and drought stress (standardized precipitation index, SPI) on vegetation activity (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) and tree radial growth (earlywood width, EW; latewood width, LW; and tree-ring width, TRW) of two Quercus macrolepis stands in Southern Albania with different topographic site conditions. During spring, increased vegetation activity (May NDVI) was coupled with enhanced radial growth at both locations (lower and upper site). At the lower site, vegetation activity and radial growth were controlled mostly by winter-spring precipitation and drought stress accumulated for a mid-term period (6-12 months). Contrastingly, at the upper site, summer precipitation, temperature and the drought index at short time scale (< 5 months) were the main drivers of radial growth. The highly significant response of radial growth to temperature and precipitation during the summer months at the upper site contrasts with the response to winter-spring climate at the lower site, and it indicates a seasonal shift in climate responses of this species with elevation. Therefore, it is necessary to stimulate adequate management strategies to increase Q. macrolepis resilience to further possible climate impacts.",Growth variability and contrasting climatic responses of two Quercus macrolepis stands from Southern Albania,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+715405,"Global warming, climatic disasters like Hurricane Katrina, and the depletion of the ozone layer illustrate the negative impact of economic growth on ecological systems and the societies that function within them. As a result, customers and many governments around the world are developing a more conscious and respectful attitude toward the environment, propelling environmental concerns to the forefront of many companies' competitive strategies. Consequently, the implementation of green practices into logistics systems is gaining worldwide importance. Green logistics practices within companies, once considered proactive measures (Wu & Dunn 1995), now influence entire value chains, and their presence has become a requirement for doing business. What are the current global practices of choice, and what challenges do companies face in applying them in emerging market economies? This chapter presents a global overview of green logistics practices at various management levels and the inherent challenges of their implementation in emerging markets. It begins by clarifying the terminology and describing its scope and characteristics, and it continues with an analysis of the impact of green logistics on the creation of economic and social value. © 2011, IGI Global.",Green logistics: Global practices and their implementation in emerging markets,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2153334,"Heat waves and high air temperature are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. However, the majority of research conducted on this topic is focused on high income areas of the world. Although heat waves have the most severe impacts on vulnerable populations, relatively few studies have studied their impacts in low and middle income countries (LMICs). The aim of this paper is to review the existing evidence in the literature on the impact of heat on human health in LMICs. We identified peer-reviewed epidemiologic studies published in English between January 1980 and August 2018 investigating potential associations between high ambient temperature or heat waves and mortality or morbidity. We selected studies according to the following criteria: quantitative studies that used primary and/or secondary data and report effect estimates where ambient temperature or heat waves are the main exposure of interest in relation to human morbidity or mortality within LMICs. Of the total 146 studies selected, eighty-two were conducted in China, nine in other countries of East Asia and the Pacific, twelve in South Asia, ten in Sub-Saharan Africa, eight in the Middle East and North Africa, and seven in each of Latin America and Europe. The majority of studies (92.9%) found positive associations between heat and human morbidity/mortality. Additionally, while outcome variables and study design differed greatly, most utilized a time-series study design and examined overall heath related morbidity/mortality impacts in an entire population, although it is notable that the selected studies generally found that the elderly, women, and individuals within the low socioeconomic brackets were the most vulnerable to the effects of high temperature. By highlighting the existing evidence on the impact of extreme heat on health in LMICs, we hope to determine data needs and help direct future studies in addressing this knowledge gap. The focus on LMICs is justified by the lack of studies and data studying the health burden of higher temperatures in these regions even though LMICs have a lower capacity to adapt to high temperatures and thus an increased risk.",Impact of heat on mortality and morbidity in low and middle income countries: A review of the epidemiological evidence and considerations for future research,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3952050,"Experimental results are presented on the changes in mechanical properties of HASTELLOY X* after being used in the liner tube of HENDEL hot gas duct under high temperature helium gas for about 6000 hours. In both room and elevated-temperature tensile tests, 0.2 pct proof stress and total elongation were significantly decreased after exposure in high temperature helium. Room-temperature impact toughness of the exposed specimens exhibited a much lower absorbed energy (about 5.0 × 106 J/m2) than that of unexposed specimens (about 1.5 × 106 J/m2). The fracture modes of tensile test specimens were more closely correlated with the test temperature than with the long-time exposure; however, long-time exposure is more affected by the tensile strength of HASTELLOY X than the test temperature. Moreover, ""downstream effect"" for the carbide precipitation reaction occurred in the liner tube of the HENDEL hot gas duct. © 1988 The Metallurgical Society of AIME.",Tensile and impact properties changes of HASTELLOY X after exposure in high-temperature helium environment,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1874171,"Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. The review considers the following aspects: (1) analysis of long-term historical trends due to anthropogenic climate change; (2) analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change; and (3) implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management.",Review of Climate Change Impact Analysis on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+163511,"Background: The Low Temperature Days (LTD) have attracted far less attention than that of High Temperature Days (HTD), though its impact on mortality is at least comparable. This lower degree of attention may perhaps be due to the fact that its influence on mortality is less pronounced and longer-term, and that there are other concomitant infectious winters factors. In a climate-change scenario, the studies undertaken to date report differing results. The aim of this study was to analyse mortality attributable to both thermal extremes in Spain's 52 provinces across the period 2000-2009, and estimate the related economic cost to show the benefit or ""profitability"" of implementing prevention plans against LID. Methods: Previous studies enabled us: to obtain the maximum daily temperature above which HTD occurred and the minimum daily temperature below which LTD occurred in the 52 provincial capitals analysed across the same study period; and to calculate the relative and attributable risks (%) associated with daily mortality in each capital. These measures of association were then used to make different calculations to obtain the daily mean mortality attributable to both thermal extremes. To this end, we obtained a summary of the number of degrees whereby the temperature exceeded (excess degrees C) or fell short (deficit degrees C) of the threshold temperature for each capital, and calculated the respective number of extreme temperatures days. The economic estimates rated the prevention plans as being 68% effective. Results: Over the period considered, the number of HTD (4373) was higher than the number of LTD (3006) for Spain as a whole. Notwithstanding this, in every provincial capital the mean daily mortality attributable to heat was lower (3 deaths/day) than that attributable to cold (3.48 deaths/day). In terms of the economic impact of the activation of prevention plans against LTD, these could be assumed to avoid 2.37 deaths on each LTD, which translated as a saving of (sic)0.29M. Similarly, in the case of heat, 2.04 deaths could be assumed to be avoided each day on which the prevention plan against HTD was activated, amounting to a saving of (sic)0.25M. While the economic cost of cold-related mortality across the ten-year period 2000-2009 was (sic)871.7M; that attributable to heat could be put at (sic)1093.2M. Conclusion: The effect of extreme temperatures on daily mortality was similar across the study period for Spain overall. The lower number of days with LTD meant, however, that daily cold-related mortality was higher than daily heat-related mortality, thereby making prevention plans against LTD more ""profitable"" prevention plans against HID in terms of avoidable mortality. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Mortality attributable to extreme temperatures in Spain: A comparative analysis by city,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+566898,"A change in climate would be expected to shift plant distribution as species expand in newly favorable areas and decline in increasingly hostile locations. We compared surveys of plant cover that were made in 1977 and 2006-2007 along a 2,314-m elevation gradient in Southern California's Santa Rosa Mountains. Southern California's climate warmed at the surface, the precipitation variability increased, and the amount of snow decreased during the 30-year period preceding the second survey. We found that the average elevation of the dominant plant species rose by approximate to 65 m between the surveys. This shift cannot be attributed to changes in air pollution or fire frequency and appears to be a consequence of changes in regional climate.",Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3305488,"Conifer forests in semi-arid regions are fragile and sensitive to climate change. As the climate changes, more frequent drought and higher temperatures may reduce conifer stem growth in these regions, but moistening and lengthening of the growing season may improve tree growth conditions. The relative influences of specific climate parameters on conifer stem growth, however, remain poorly quantified in Asian regions. We analyzed conifer stem growth responses to climate in the semi-arid region of China. Our analyses show a wetting trend since 1960 in the western part of this region, versus a drying trend in the east. We used tree-ring width data from a network of 33 forests as inputs for the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite growth model to assess how moisture patterns have affected tree growth in this region, and then used the resulting model to predict changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Tree-ring growth in our study region is mainly controlled by precipitation and soil moisture, and shows significant impacts of antecedent moisture conditions (the ""water memory effect""). However, the contribution of soil moisture to tree growth was stronger in the eastern vs. western sub-regions (77% vs. 69%). Pointer-year analysis showed significantly stronger growth responses to soil moisture in the early growing season (April to June) in positive pointer years in the eastern sub-region, but showed no difference in the western sub-region. These results indicate that tree-ring growth in the eastern sub-region is more vulnerable to moisture availability. Our simulations suggest that tree growth will increase slightly under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in both sub-regions, possibly due to the prolongation of the growing season caused by climate warming.",Spatial patterns of precipitation-induced moisture availability and their effects on the divergence of conifer stem growth in the western and eastern parts of China's semi-arid region.,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3335614,"We analyzed the influence of 17 weather factors on migrating Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) near the Continental Divide in Glacier National Park, Montana, U.S.A. Local weather measurements were recorded at automated stations on the flanks of two peaks within the migration path. During a total of 506 hr of observation, the yearly number of Golden Eagles in autumn counts (1994-96) averaged 1973; spring counts (1995 and 1996) averaged 605 eagles. Mean passage rates (eagles/hr) were 16.5 in autumn and 8.2 in spring. Maximum rates were 137 in autumn and 67 in spring. Using generalized linear modeling, we tested for the effects of weather factors on the number of eagles counted. In the autumn model, the number of eagles increased with air temperature, rising barometric pressure, decreasing relative humidity, and interactions among those factors. In the spring model, the number of eagles increased with increasing wind speed, barometric pressure, and the interaction between these factors. Our data suggest that a complex interaction among weather factors influenced the number of eagles passing on a given day. We hypothesize that in complex landscapes with high topographic relief, such as Glacier National park, numerous weather factors produce different daily combinations to which migrating eagles respond opportunistically.",The influence of weather on Golden Eagle migration in northwestern Montana,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1291387,"Predictions of future food supply under climate change rely on projected crop yield trends, which are typically based upon retrospective empirical analyses of historical yield gains. However, the estimation of these trends is difficult given the evolving impact of agricultural technologies and confounding influences such as weather. Here, we evaluate the effect of climate change on United States (US) maize yields in light of the productivity gains associated with the period of rapid adoption of genetically engineered (GE) seeds. We find that yield gains on the order of those experienced during the adoption of GE maize are needed to offset climate change impacts under the business-as-usual scenario, and that smaller gains, such as those associated with the pre-GE era in the 1980s and early 90s, would likely imply yield reductions below current levels. Although this study cannot identify the biophysical drivers of past and future maize yields, it helps contextualize the yield growth requirements necessary to counterbalance projected yield losses under climate change. Outside of the US, our findings have important implications for regions lagging in the adoption of new technologies which could help offset the detrimental effects of climate change.",Is another genetic revolution needed to offset climate change impacts for US maize yields?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+277050,"Anthropogenic CO2 emissions have led to increasing global mean temperatures (a process called global warming) and ocean acidification. Because both processes are occurring simultaneously, to better understand their consequences on marine species their combined effects must be experimentally evaluated. The aim of this study was to evaluate for the first time the combined effects of ocean acidification and water temperature increase on the total calcification rate, growth rate and survival of juvenile individuals of the mytilid mussel Mytilus chilensis (Hupe). Two temperature levels (12 and 16 degrees C) and three nominal CO2 concentrations (390, 700 and 1000 ppm of CO2) were used. We found that the net rate of calcium deposition and total weight were not significantly affected by temperature, but were negatively affected by the levels of CO2. The interactive effects of temperature and CO2 levels affected only the shell dissolution, but this process was not important for the animal's net calcification. These results suggest that individuals of M. chilensis are able to overcome increased temperatures, but not increments of CO2 levels. It is well known that mussels influence their physical and biological surroundings. Therefore, the negative effects of a CO2 increase could have significant ecological consequences, mainly in those habitats where this group is dominant in terms of abundance and biomass. Finally, taking into account that this species inhabit a wide geographic range, with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, salinity and, pH), further studies are needed to evaluate the intraspecific variability in the responses of this species to different environmental stressors. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Combined effects of temperature and ocean acidification on the juvenile individuals of the mussel Mytilus chilensis,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+796260,"While many studies have described linkages between large-scale climate phenomena and precipitation and streamflow, fewer studies explicitly address the climatic modulations at sub-regional scales. This study quantifies statistically the temporal variability in precipitation and streamflow at a regional scale in the semi-arid area of South Texas associated with three climate indices: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results show that ENSO and PDO strongly modulate rainfall during the cold season and, to various extents, streamflow during the cold and warm seasons. In addition, this study shows that in South Texas streamflow is consistently below normal (i.e. means) while precipitation slightly increases during AMO-warm. To different extents, the Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show stronger influences on the climate of South Texas when coupled. Droughts are more correlated with La Nina events but these events play a secondary role during PDO-cold. Although the PDO-cold phase is the dominant driver of droughts in this area, our analyses also show that the coupled effect of the PDO-cold/AMO-warm phases significantly increases the intensity of drought conditions to a degree similar to the PDO-cold/La Nina coupled effect. Given its stronger response to climate anomalies, streamflow offers a more effective tool for predicting climate variability impacts on South Texas water resources when compared to precipitation. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Relationships between sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and South Texas precipitation and streamflow variability,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+188191,"Debris-covered glaciers are common in rapidly eroding alpine landscapes. When thicker than a few centimeters, surface debris suppresses melt rates. If continuous debris cover is present, ablation rates can be significantly reduced leading to increases in glacier length. In order to quantify feedbacks in the debris-glacier-climate system, we developed a 2-D long-valley numerical glacier model that includes englacial and supraglacial debris advection. We ran 120 simulations on a linear bed profile in which a hypothetical steady state debris-free glacier responds to a step increase of surface debris deposition. Simulated glaciers advance to steady states in which ice accumulation equals ice ablation, and debris input equals debris loss from the glacier terminus. Our model and parameter selections can produce 2-fold increases in glacier length. Debris flux onto the glacier and the relationship between debris thickness and melt rate strongly control glacier length. Debris deposited near the equilibrium-line altitude, where ice discharge is high, results in the greatest glacier extension when other debris-related variables are held constant. Debris deposited near the equilibrium-line altitude re-emerges high in the ablation zone and therefore impacts melt rate over a greater fraction of the glacier surface. Continuous debris cover reduces ice discharge gradients, ice thickness gradients, and velocity gradients relative to initial debris-free glaciers. Debris-forced glacier extension decreases the ratio of accumulation zone to total glacier area (AAR). Our simulations reproduce the 'general trends' between debris cover, AARs, and glacier surface velocity patterns from modern debris-covered glaciers. We provide a quantitative, theoretical foundation to interpret the effect of debris cover on the moraine record, and to assess the effects of climate change on debris-covered glaciers.",Modeling debris-covered glaciers: response to steady debris deposition,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+560484,"Large brown seaweeds (kelps) form forests in temperate and boreal marine systems that serve as foundations to the structure and dynamics of communities. Mapping the distributions of these species is important to understanding the ecology of coastal environments, managing marine ecosystems (e.g., spatial planning), predicting consequences of climate change and the potential for carbon production. We demonstrate how combining seafloor mapping technologies (LiDAR and multibeam bathymetry) and models of wave energy to map the distribution and relative abundance of seaweed forests of Ecklonia radiata can provide complete coverage over hundreds of square kilometers. Using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), we associated observations of E. radiata abundance from video transects with environmental variables. These relationships were then used to predict the distribution of E. radiata across our 756.1 km(2) study area off the coast of Victoria, Australia. A reserved dataset was used to test the accuracy of these predictions. We found that the abundance distribution of E. radiata is strongly associated with depth, presence of rocky reef, curvature of the reef topography, and wave exposure. In addition, the GLMM methodology allowed us to adequately account for spatial autocorrelation in our sampling methods. The predictive distribution map created from the best GLMM predicted the abundance of E. radiata with an accuracy of 72%. The combination of LiDAR and multibeam bathymetry allowed us to model and predict E. radiata abundance distribution across its entire depth range for this study area. Using methods like those presented in this study, we can map the distribution of macroalgae species, which will give insight into ecological communities, biodiversity distribution, carbon uptake, and potential sequestration. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.",Forests of the sea: Predictive habitat modelling to assess the abundance of canopy forming kelp forests on temperate reefs,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3308678,"Algeria lies in one of the most vulnerable regions facing climate change impacts during the twenty-first century. Northwestern Algeria has experienced a persistent decline in annual rainfall associated with the significant increase in temperature during the twentieth century. This variability has been accentuated since the 1980s and has had a significant impact on water resources. The primary motto of the current study is to measure the impact of climate change on groundwater resources using time series of rainfall and runoff data measured in the Tafna Basin (7245 km(2)) of Algeria. The application of meteorological drought indices and statistical test of Pettitt shows that a rainfall regime modification occurred around the seventies. This modification reveals a decrease of rainfall between 8.21 and 38.85% according to the stations, with an average of 17.85%. The average recession coefficients obtained by Maillet's exponential model varies between 8.90.10 and 17.06.10(-2) day(-1) either side of 1987, with an average increase of 45.45% and highlight a much faster drainage of the aquifers supplying the baseflow after 1987. A shortening of 1 to 11 days with an average of 6 days of the duration of the recession after 1987 was highlighted. The average water volumes mobilized by the aquifers fluctuated between 11.38 and 3.62 hm(3) before and after 1987, with an average decrease of - 69.06%. These results show a decrease in the water volumes mobilized by the aquifers after 1987 and suggest a considerable decline of groundwater resources under the influence of climate change.",The impact of climate change on groundwater resources in northwestern Algeria,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+684509,"Glaciers are widely recognized as key indicators of climate change, and melt water obtained from them is an important source of fresh water and for hydropower generation. Regular monitoring of a large number of Himalayan glaciers is important for improving our knowledge of glacier response to climate change. In the present study, Survey of India topographical maps (1966) and Landsat datasets as ETM+ (2000, 2006) and TM (2011) have been used to study glacier fluctuations in Tirungkhad basin. A deglaciation of 26.1% (29.1 km(2)) in terms of area from 1966 to 2011 was observed. Lower altitude small glaciers (area < 1 km(2)) lost more ice (34%), while glaciers with an area < 10 km(2) lost less (20%). The percentage of change in glacier length was 26% (31.9 km) from 1966 to 2011. The south-facing glaciers showed high percentages of loss. From 2000 to 2011, debris cover has increased by 1.34%. The analysis of the trend in meteorological data collected from Kalpa and Purbani stations was carried out by Mann Kendall non-parametric method. During the last two decades, the mean annual temperature (T-max and T-min) has increased significantly, accompanied with a fall in snow water equivalent (SWE) and rainfall. The increasing trend in temperature and decreasing trend in SWE were significant at 95% confidence level. This observation shows that the warming of the climate is probably one of the major reasons for the glacier change in the basin.",Glacier changes using satellite data and effect of climate in Tirungkhad basin located in western Himalaya,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1945483,"In the Northeast of the US, climate change will bring a series of impacts on the terrestrial hydrology. Observations indicate that temperature has steadily increased during the last century, including changes in precipitation. This study implements the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro framework with the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) model that is currently used in the National Water Model to estimate the tendencies of the different variables that compounded the water budget in the Northeast of the US from 1980 to 2016. We use North American Land Data Assimilation System-2 (NLDAS-2) climate data as forcing, and we calibrated the model using 192 US Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow II (Gages II) reference stations. We study the tendencies determining the Kendall-Theil slope of streamflow using the maximum three-day average, seven-day minimum flow, and the monotonic five-day mean times series. For the water budget, we determine the Kendall-Theil slope for changes in monthly values of precipitation, surface and subsurface runoff, evapotranspiration, transpiration, soil moisture, and snow accumulation. The results indicate that the changes in precipitation are not being distributed evenly in the components of the water budget. Precipitation is decreasing during winter and increasing during the summer, with the direct impacts being a decrease in snow accumulation and an increase in evapotranspiration. The soil tends to be drier, which does not translate to a rise in infiltration since the surface runoff aggregated tendencies are positive, and the underground runoff aggregated tendencies are negative. The effects of climate change on streamflows are buffered by larger areas, indicating that more attention needs to be given to small catchments to adapt to climate change.",Use of WRF-Hydro over the Northeast of the US to Estimate Water Budget Tendencies in Small Watersheds,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1533260,"For the last four decades there has been sustained scientific interest in contemporary environmental change in the Sahel (the southern fringe of the Sahara). It suffered several devastating droughts and famines between the late 1960s and early 1990s. Speculation about the climatology of these droughts is unresolved, as is speculation about the effects of land clearance on rainfall and about land degradation in this zone. However, recent findings suggest a consistent trend of increasing vegetation greenness in much of the region. Increasing rainfall over the last few years is certainly one reason, but does not fully explain the change. Other factors, such as land use change and migration, may also contribute. This study investigates the nature of a secular vegetation trend across the Sahel and discusses several potential causative factors. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","A recent greening of the Sahel - Trends, patterns and potential causes",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1473293,"This study presents a method to linearly evaluate the rainfall frequency-intensity distribution, which is an important component of climatological rainfall characteristics. To grasp and represent the key information of the rainfall frequency distribution by intensity, a two-parameter double exponential function is formulated and fitted to the hourly rainfall observation at each station. The values of the two parameters are estimated by transforming the distribution to a linear pattern. The two parameters determine the location and shape of the fitted distribution curve, and they have different modulating effects in different intensity categories, one governing the low-intensity section and the other dominating the intense rainfall. Through analysis of the estimated parameters, essential features of rainfall distribution can be obtained and assessed. The proposed method is applied to analyze the climatology and long-term variation of the late-summer rainfall in China. It is found that topography and monsoon circulation are two major factors controlling the rainfall frequency-intensity distribution. At stations with high surface altitudes and complex orography, the frequency of light rain is extremely high and the number of intense rainfall events is relatively small. In the plain areas of eastern China, especially those influenced by the main monsoon rain belt, heavy rainfall is more frequent. By tracking the displacement of the parameter pairs, the decadal changes in rainfall frequency-intensity distribution can be clearly visualized and evaluated on a plane constructed by the two parameters. The southern flooding and northern drought pattern can be attributed to the changes in light and moderate rainfall, while the intense rainfall exhibits opposite trends.",A Method to Linearly Evaluate Rainfall Frequency-Intensity Distribution,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1999724,"The potential of high severity wildfires to increase global terrestrial carbon emissions and exacerbate future climatic warming is of international concern. Nowhere is this more prevalent than within high latitude regions where peatlands have, over millennia, accumulated legacy carbon stocks comparable to all human CO2 emissions since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Drying increases rates of peat decomposition and associated atmospheric and aquatic carbon emissions. The degree to which severe wildfires enhance drying under future climates and induce instability in peatland ecological communities and carbon stocks is unknown. Here we show that high burn severities increased post-fire evapotranspiration by 410% within a feather moss peatland by burning through the protective capping layer that restricts evaporative drying in response to low severity burns. High burn severities projected under future climates will therefore leave peatlands that dominate dry sub-humid regions across the boreal, on the edge of their climatic envelopes, more vulnerable to intense post-fire drying, inducing high rates of carbon loss to the atmosphere that amplify the direct combustion emissions.",Severe wildfire exposes remnant peat carbon stocks to increased post-fire drying,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2341763,"In this study, to identify circulation patterns producing flash flood in the South-West of Iran, 51 large floods in the Qantareh Station have been selected which have been among the data from the daily flood in a period of 30 years of Mond basin. The Mond basin is one of the sub-basin of Persian Gulf Basin and is located in south west of Iran. Then, the hydrologic features of selected floods have been calculated. Afterwards, hydrologic features of these floods using mean and standard deviation have been standardized. Then performing a cluster analysis via Ward integration method the data of six main groups of flood have been derived. Finally one day was determined as a sample day of each group to perform synoptic analysis of precipitation days causing the flood of sample day via the environment-to-circulation procedure. To analyze precipitation days synoptically, maps of sea level pressure(SLP), geopotential height, temperature, specific moisture of 500 hPa level and Isohyets maps of daily basin have been used. The upper atmosphere data have been provided from NCEP\NCAR database. In this paper, only the synoptic analysis of precipitation days of sample flood of flood cluster number 4 is provided. The results showed that precipitation cluster providing sample flood of flood cluster number 4 were due to synoptic conditions of locating a cut-oil low in the East Mediterranean and South of Black Sea.",IDENTIFICATION OF CIRCULATION PATTERNS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODS OVER SOUTH-WEST OF IRAN,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2356290,"Climate change and fishery impacts modify the spatial distribution of marine species. Understanding and predicting changes in distribution is important for adaptation by fishers and the management of fishery resources and biodiversity. However, identifying such trends is challenging given the variability inherent in trawl survey data. We apply a novel two-step approach to identify fish distribution trends from trawl surveys. First, species-specific average locations (mean latitude and longitude centre of gravity) and extent (effective area occupied) were estimated within a spatio-temporal delta modelling framework. The resulting time series and associated variance estimates were then passed to a multivariate Bayesian state-space model to estimate average trends over the study period. We applied this two-stage approach to three decades (1986-2016) of demersal trawl research survey data from the Agulhas Bank of South Africa to quantify distributional changes in 44 commonly caught fishes (chondrichthyans and teleosts). Across the entire assemblage, average trends showed a westward (alongshore) shift in location and a reduction in the extent of populations. At the species level, six taxa showed a location trend towards the west or south-west, and three shifted towards the east or north-east. The area occupied by species showed two taxa that had a decreasing trend in spatial extent and one species that was expanding. The mean westward and contracting trends of the assemblage were interpreted as likely signals of climate forcing, whereas the eastward shift of three species may be linked to fishing impacts. A lack of knowledge of subsurface oceanographic changes in the region challenges interpretation of the distribution changes and is identified as a research priority. We recommend additional research regarding causal drivers of distribution shifts, specifically to attribute observed changes to climate, fishing, and inter-annual environmental variability.",A novel approach to assess distribution trends from fisheries survey data,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1294513,"We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and ""intensity-loss rate"" function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020-2039 and 2040-2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 degrees C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986-2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006-2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 degrees C warming.",Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+637821,"We investigate interactions between successive naturally occurring fires, and assess to what extent the environments in which fires burn influence these interactions. Using mapped fire perimeters and satellite-based estimates of post-fire effects (referred to hereafter as fire severity) for 19 fires burning relatively freely over a 31-year period, we demonstrate that fire as a landscape process can exhibit self-limiting characteristics in an upper elevation Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forest. We use the term 'self-limiting' to refer to recurring fire as a process over time (that is, fire regime) consuming fuel and ultimately constraining the spatial extent and lessening fire-induced effects of subsequent fires. When the amount of time between successive adjacent fires is under 9 years, and when fire weather is not extreme (burning index <34.9), the probability of the latter fire burning into the previous fire area is extremely low. Analysis of fire severity data by 10-year periods revealed a fair degree of stability in the proportion of area burned among fire severity classes (unchanged, low, moderate, high). This is in contrast to a recent study demonstrating increasing high-severity burning throughout the Sierra Nevada from 1984 to 2006, which suggests freely burning fires over time in upper elevation Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forests can regulate fire-induced effects across the landscape. This information can help managers better anticipate short-and long-term effects of allowing naturally ignited fires to burn, and ultimately, improve their ability to implement Wildland Fire Use programs in similar forest types.",Interactions Among Wildland Fires in a Long-Established Sierra Nevada Natural Fire Area,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+386854,"Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events. Short-term effects of extreme hot and cold weather and their effects on mortality have been thoroughly documented, as have epidemiologic and demographic changes throughout the 20th century. We investigated whether sensitivity to episodes of extreme heat and cold has changed in Stockholm, Sweden, from the beginning of the 20th century until the present. Methods: We collected daily mortality and temperature data for the period 1901-2009 for present-day Stockholm County, Sweden. Heat extremes were defined as days for which the 2-day moving average of mean temperature was above the 98th percentile; cold extremes were defined as days for which the 26-day moving average was below the 2nd percentile. The relationship between extreme hot/cold temperatures and all-cause mortality, stratified by decade, sex, and age, was investigated through time series modeling, adjusting for time trends. Results: Total daily mortality was higher during heat extremes in all decades, with a declining trend over time in the relative risk associated with heat extremes, leveling off during the last three decades. The relative risk of mortality was higher during cold extremes for the entire period, with a more dispersed pattern across decades. Unlike for heat extremes, there was no decline in the mortality with cold extremes over time. Conclusions: Although the relative risk of mortality during extreme temperature events appears to have fallen, such events still pose a threat to public health.","Acute Fatal Effects of Short-Lasting Extreme Temperatures in Stockholm, Sweden Evidence Across a Century of Change",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+562027,"The Antarctic Peninsula is one of three regions of the planet that have experienced the highest rates of climate warming over recent decades. Based on a comprehensive large-scale resurvey, allowing comparison of new (2009) and historical data (1960s), we show that the two native Antarctic vascular plant species have exhibited significant increases in number of occupied sites and percent cover since the 1960s: Deschampsia antarctica increasing in coverage by 191 % and in number of sites by 104 %. Colobanthus quitensis increasing in coverage by 208 % and number of sites by 35 %. These changes likely occurred in response to increases of 1.2 A degrees C in summer air temperature over the same time period. Both species exhibited changes with elevation due to the interaction of multiple drivers (climatic factors and animal disturbance), producing heterogeneity of responses across an elevation gradient. Below an elevation of 20 m fur seal activity exerted negative impacts. Between 20 and 60 m, both plant species underwent considerable increases in the number of sites and percent cover, likely influenced by both climate warming and nutrient input from seals. Above an elevation threshold of 60 m the maximum elevation of the sites occupied decreased for both species, perhaps as a consequence of physical disturbance at higher elevations due to the permafrost conditions and/or the snow cover thickness and persistence. Understanding the role of disturbance drivers for vegetation change in cold regions may become a research priority to enable improved forecasting of biological responses and feedbacks of climate warming on ecosystems in these globally influential regions.",Vascular plant changes in extreme environments: effects of multiple drivers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+228275,"Climatologists have observed a consistent increase in atmospheric CO2 over the past 30 years. It is predicted that CO2 levels could double the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm by the year 2100, perphaps much earlier. Climate models of doubled atmospheric CO2 predict that mean temperatures will increase between 1.5 and 4.5-degrees-C globally; these temperature changes will be greater at high latitudes. Mid-continental regions will experience lower rainfall. Predictions of species northward range shifts in response to climate change vary from 100 km to over 500 km. Historical evidence of species range movements following the Pleistocene indicate that tree species typically migrated at rates of 10 km to 40 km per century. A simulation model that predicts the migration response of trees through modem fragmented landscapes predicts migration rates much lower than Pleistocene observations. Thus migration response is likely to lag far behind rates of climatic change, potentially threatening narrowly distributed species whose predicted future ranges do not overlap with their current range. Insect pests and microbial pathogens should respond to climatic warming faster than long-lived trees. Predicted increased drought frequency may increase plant stress and thereby increase the frequency of insect outbreaks and disease. Predictions of species responses are complicated by direct effects of increased CO2, such as increased water-use. efficiency. However, response to elevated CO2 vanes among species. Thus, shifts in composition within plant communities are also likely, but are, as yet, unpredictable.",POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE BIODIVERSITY OF PLANTS,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1906283,"The responses of regional hydrological variables to climate change are of prime concern for agricultural water resources planning and management. Therefore, the seasonal (April-September) and annual (January-December) evolution of precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture (SM), deep aquifer recharge (DA), and water yield (WYLD) was investigated using established statistical techniques for the historical, near and far future (1983-2007: His, 2010-2034: NF, 2040-2064: FF) in the agricultural region of Alberta, Canada. Previously calibrated and validated agro-hydrological models (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) were used to generate these variables. Future changes were investigated under two representative concentration pathways, i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, projected by nine global climate models (GCM). Results revealed that Alberta had become warmer and drier during the His period. The future projection showed an increase in precipitation, SM, DA, and WYLD, in turn, indicated more water resources. Precipitation and temperature were projected to increase between 1 to 7% and 1.21 to 2.32 degrees C, respectively. Seasonal precipitation showed a higher trend magnitude than that of annual precipitation. The temperature generally had an increasing trend in the future with a maximum in the southern Alberta. Monthly average ET was likely to increase and decrease in the rising and falling limbs of the bell-shaped curve with the peak in July. A comparison of water demand from two land use types (dominant land use and barley) during the His period showed that water deficit existed in July and August. The results of this study could help in understanding anticipated changes in hydrological variables and decision-making regarding the regional agricultural water resources management.","Projected Changes in Hydrological Variables in the Agricultural Region of Alberta, Canada",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+453070,"Changes in plant phenology directly manifests the change of climate, especially climate warming. The changes in rhythm of plant growth may alter plant-environment relationships, hence the mass cycles, such as water and carbon, in the ecosystem. Individual plant species respond to climatic changes differently, which may cause great changes in competition and dependence among different species and plant-animal interactions. In the past few years, many reports showed that the plant phonology toward early in spring and late in autumn in Europe, America, and Asia. The changes in plant phenology result in a lengthening growing season, and indicate a warming climate. Phenological model is an important component of ecosystem productivity models, which may play a key role in analysis of vegetation-atmosphere interactions.",Responses of plant phenology to climatic change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+365782,"Sea surface temperature (SST) across much of the tropics has increased by 0.4 degrees to 1 degrees C since the mid-1970s. A parallel increase in the frequency and extent of coral bleaching and mortality has fueled concern that climate change poses a major threat to the survival of coral reef ecosystems worldwide. Here we show that steadily rising SSTs, not ocean acidification, are already driving dramatic changes in the growth of an important reef-building coral in the central Red Sea. Three-dimensional computed tomography analyses of the massive coral Diploastrea heliopora reveal that skeletal growth of apparently healthy colonies has declined by 30% since 1998. The same corals responded to a short-lived warm event in 1941/1942, but recovered within 3 years as the ocean cooled. Combining our data with climate model simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we predict that should the current warming trend continue, this coral could cease growing altogether by 2070.",Ocean Warming Slows Coral Growth in the Central Red Sea,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1282920,"Two coupled climate models, CESM1 and CanESM2, are used to isolate the climate response to Arctic sea ice loss (high-latitude warming). The sea ice loss and radiative forcing protocols differ between the sets of experiments. This response is compared to the remaining climate change signal, which is dominated by low-latitude warming. Some aspects of the wintertime circulation response to sea ice loss are remarkably robust: warming over much of the high latitude and midlatitude; weak cooling over eastern Eurasia, strengthening of the Aleutian Low and Siberian High, equatorward intensification of the lower tropospheric winds, and increased precipitation over high latitudes. Pattern scaling separates the parts of the response that scale with low-latitude warming and with sea ice loss. The thermal response patterns, for both sea ice loss and low-latitude warming, are similar between the models. However, the circulation response patterns that scale with low-latitude warming differ between the models. Preliminary evidence shows that these conclusions apply to other models driven by distinctive sea ice loss protocols. Plain Language Summary Arctic sea ice is melted in two climate models in such a way as to isolate its impact on the atmosphere from the general climate change response. We find that sea ice loss alone generates changes to atmospheric circulation patterns that are consistent between different climate models, but that the remaining signal, dominated by warming in the tropics, depends on the model used. As a result, the full circulation response to climate change remains uncertain. In contrast, the temperature and precipitation responses to both Arctic sea ice loss and tropical warming are consistent between the models. Preliminary results show that these conclusions apply to other models and are not sensitive to the method used to melt the sea ice.",On the Relative Robustness of the Climate Response to High-Latitude and Low-Latitude Warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+42257,"Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt 'autonomously', since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour.",Learning to adapt: Organisational adaptation to climate change impacts,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+261266,"Global marine fisheries are underperforming economically because of overfishing, pollution and habitat degradation. Added to these threats is the looming challenge of climate change. Observations, experiments and simulation models show that climate change would result in changes in primary productivity, shifts in distribution and changes in the potential yield of exploited marine species, resulting in impacts on the economics of fisheries worldwide. Despite the gaps in understanding climate change effects on fisheries, there is sufficient scientific information that highlights the need to implement climate change mitigation and adaptation policies to minimize impacts on fisheries.",Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries,1.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+126248,"Two contrasting 18 yr periods (1950-1967 and 1968-1985) were compared to illustrate the hydrologic and water resources effects of a change to a wetter climatic regime over Illinois. For the nine State Climate Divisions, precipitation increases and fluctuations in wetness measured by Palmer Drought Indices revealed a marked shift between the periods. The seasonal variability and spatial coherence of this precipitation climate fluctuation and its impacts are examined in detail and quantitative relationships are derived between Drought Indices and measured soil moisture and streamflow at several sites. Riverflow and well level changes are consistent with this climate change on the 20-40 yr time-scale which has had some significance for water management in the area.",RECENT HYDROCLIMATIC FLUCTUATIONS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WATER-RESOURCES IN ILLINOIS,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+264017,"This paper analyses a tax reform, explicitly conceived by policy.makers to be climate-friendly, that partly replaces a high vehicle registration tax by road user charging and allows for differentiation of the remaining registration tax by fuel efficiency. A microeconomic framework is proposed to analyse such a reform. For the case of Denmark, the analysis shows that the reform is likely to yield a significant and robust welfare gain. However, it seems not unlikely that CO2 emissions from passenger cars may increase as a result of the reform. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",A green reform is not always green,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+773950,"This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O-3 air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O-3 but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O-3 entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH4) abundances lead to increases in background O-3 that offset the O-3 decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O-3 - termed the O-3 climate penalty - especially in southern Europe. The O-3 response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O-3 distribution, such as daily maximum O-3. Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100. A larger number of studies have examined both future climate and emissions changes under the RCP scenarios. Under these pathways the impact of emission changes on air quality out to the 2050s will be larger than that due to climate change, because of large reductions in emissions of O-3 and PM pollutant precursor emissions and the more limited climate change response itself. Climate change will also affect climate extreme events such as heatwaves. Air pollution episodes are associated with stagnation events and sometimes heat waves. Air quality during the 2003 heatwave over Europe has been examined in numerous studies and mechanisms for enhancing O-3 have been identified. There are few studies on health effects associated with climate change impacts alone on air quality, but these report higher O-3-related health burdens in polluted populated regions and greater PM2.5 health burdens in these emission regions. Studies that examine the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions change under the RCP scenarios report reductions in global and European premature O-3-respiratory related and PM mortalities arising from the large decreases in precursor emissions. Under RCP 8.5 the large increase in CH4 leads to global and European excess O-3-respiratory related mortalities in 2100. For future health effects, besides uncertainty in future O-3 and particularly PM concentrations, there is also uncertainty in risk estimates such as effect modification by temperature on pollutant-response relationships and potential future adaptation that would alter exposure risk.",Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+536647,"Although a great deal of research has focused on the hydrologic effects of climate variability and change, relatively little research has examined the effects on streamflow of interactions between climate variability and change and resulting glacier response. Place Glacier, in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada, has been monitored for mass balance since 1965, and a stream gauge was operated just below the glacier terminus from 1969 to 1989. This paper presents analyses of the mass balance history and streamflow variations in relation to recorded climatic variability. Place Glacier's winter and net balances are correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Summer balance is positively correlated with summer temperature and negatively with the preceding winter balance, which enhances the effects of changes in winter balance on net balance. The well-documented post-1976 shift from the PDO cold phase to the present warm phase initiated a significant and persistent period of more negative net balance and terminal retreat. A reconstruction of net balance extending back to the 1890s, based on a regression with winter precipitation and summer temperature, displays decadal-scale fluctuations consistent with the PDO. Summer streamflow responded to interannual variations in winter snow accumulation and summer temperatures, which control the rate of rise of the glacier snowline and melt rates. After accounting for these influences via regression analysis, August streamflow displayed a negative trend in total runoff. Examination of air photographs and the reconstructed mass balance history suggest that significant firn depletion had occurred prior to 1965, such that the dominant effect of glacier changes was a reduction in ice area, resulting in decreased meltwater production. Copyright (C) 2001 John 'Wiley Sons, Ltd.","Mass balance and streamflow variability at Place Glacier, Canada, in relation to recent climate fluctuations",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2318640,"With the increasing rate of species extinctions following anthropogenic perturbation, there is a growing interest in biodiversity research. Although productivity and species richness relationships have been tested and applied in contemporary aquatic ecological studies, none have been applied to paleoecology with contrasting trophic states. The present study explores the applicability of a contemporary production and species richness relationship in high-resolution paleoecological records with low, intermediate and mid to high productive aquatic systems. Results from our study reveal that diatom species richness was positively correlated in low to intermediate productive lakes. In contrast, the relationship was hump shaped (unimodal) in a mid to high productive system concurrent with the species diversity analyses. Contrasting relationships between diatom species richness and stable isotope records (delta C-13 and delta N-15) suggested that the nutrient biogeochemical cycle might play an important role in controlling species richness. From fossil pigment records we show that the variations in algal functional group signatures were highest in intermediate state. Collectively, these results suggest that the hump shaped (unimodal) relationship between diatom species richness and production might be limited to high productive systems with maximum richness and diversity in intermediate states, which is also supported in contemporary studies. Moreover, fossil pigment records as proxies for algal functional groups reveal that in a mid to high productive system with intense watershed scale disturbances, community composition of algal functional groups declined favoring certain diatoms. Our results demonstrate the applicability of production and diversity relationship theory in paleo-perspective and that recent watershed scale land use changes might affect the species diversity in aquatic systems.",Relationship between phytoplankton paleoproduction and diversity in contrasting trophic states,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+616863,"Seed availability and suitable microsites for germination are likely to severely constrain the responses of plant species to climate change, especially at and beyond range edges. For example, range shifts may be slow if seed availability is low at range edges due to low parent-tree abundance or reduced fecundity. Even when seeds are available, climatic and biotic factors may further limit the availability of suitable microsites for recruitment. Unfortunately, the importance of seed and microsite limitation during range shifts remains unknown, since few studies have examined both factors simultaneously, particularly across species' ranges. To address this issue, we assessed seed availability and the factors influencing germination for six conifer species across a large environmental gradient encompassing their elevational ranges. Specifically, we assessed (1) how parent-tree abundance influences annual seed availability; (2) how seed limitation varies across species' ranges; (3) how climatic and biotic factors affect germination; and (4) how seed and suitable microsite availability covary annually within and among species. We found that seed availability declined toward species' upper range edges for most species, primarily due to low parent-tree abundance rather than declining fecundity. Range expansions are thus likely to be lagged with respect to climate change, as long generation times preclude rapid increases in tree density. Negative impacts of canopy cover on germination rates suggest range shifts will further be slowed by competition with existing vegetation. Moreover, years of high seed production were generally correlated among species, but not correlated with the availability of suitable microsites, implying that seedling competition and the interaction between seed and microsite limitation will further constrain recruitment. However, the nature of microsite limitation varied strongly between treeline and low-elevation species due to differing responses to snowpack duration and competition, suggesting that treeline species may be quicker to shift their ranges in response to warming than low-elevation species. In all, our results demonstrate that seed and microsite limitation will likely result in lagged responses to climate change but with differences among species leading to complex range shift dynamics.",Recruitment limitation of long-lived conifers: implications for climate change responses,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1886550,"Droughts rank first among all natural hazards when measured in terms of the number of people affected. Northern Africa is one of the most arid areas of the world, with rainfalls that vary widely in terms of both temporal and geographical distribution. Libya just like most parts of North Africa is facing drought. Statistical analysis for time series can reveal possible trends in time. For drought risk analysis it is very important to study the historical climate parameters (temperature and precipitation) to know if there is a trend, downward or upward. The aim of this paper is an investigation of the trends by using statistical methods, exactly non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, in these parameters because they have a strong correlation and are related with drought.",DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT IN LIBYA BY STATISTICAL METHODS,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1426706,"This study investigates the impact of increased vegetation greening on the springtime temperature over east Asia for 1982-2000. An analysis of station-based temperature records and satellite-measure normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) indicates that slight warming (<0.4 degrees C 10-yr(-1)) occurred over regions that experienced large increase in NDVI (>= 0.08 10-yr(-1)). On the contrary, strong warming (>= 0.8 degrees C 10-yr(-1)) occurred over regions that exhibited minor changes in NDVI (<0.04 10-yr(-1)). For the most part, this inverse NDVI-temperature relationship observed with the daily maximum temperature. Thus, it is suggested that the decrease in warming was mostly attributable to the increase in evapotranspiration associated with increased vegetation greening. Earlier vegetation growth may have further strengthened the effect of this vegetation-evaporation on spring temperature. Citation: Jeong, S.-J., C.-H. Ho, and J.-H. Jeong (2009), Increase in vegetation greenness and decrease in springtime warming over east Asia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L02710, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036583.",Increase in vegetation greenness and decrease in springtime warming over east Asia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1330614,"Urban areas have unique environments such as high air temperature, soil compaction and disturbance, and air and water pollution often impose plant stresses. Natural disasters can impose even greater stresses on plants in such areas. In 2011 Bangkok, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in over two decades, inundated up to a meter for a month. Here we report on tree tolerance to submerged, anoxic soils based on mortality. We identified over 6500 trees by taxa: 395 species in 219 genera within 60 families, which were categorized into three groups: susceptible (> 50% mortality), tolerant (< 50% mortality), and highly tolerant ( no mortality). Among all the species, 18% were categorized as flood susceptible, 75% as tolerant, and 7% as highly tolerant. The floods resulted in decreased overall species richness by 18%, particularly in the Magnoliaceae and Lauraceae families, for which the mortality was 100% and 66%, respectively. Flood susceptible species were mostly from high rainfall habitats such as the hill evergreen forest. As expected, highly flood tolerant species were from the mangrove forests, beach/strand forests, and swamp plant communities, where the root zones are persistently saturated with lower quality water. Unexpectedly, many species native to higher temperature, drier, often deciduous lowland habitats were found to be flood tolerant, and were from the cultivated fruit and ornamental species. The results also indicated that smaller and younger trees suffered more mortality than larger and more mature trees. Therefore, during the tree selection process for planting in urban environments that may be at risk of frequent flooding, species from a wide spectrum of ecological habitats should be considered; particularly those characterized by one or more environmental stresses, such as drought, salt, heat, or saturated soils. (C) 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.","Thailand's catastrophic flood: Bangkok tree mortality as a function of taxa, habitat, and tree size",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+773896,"Climate change impacts the quantity and seasonality of rainfall, threatening Africans' ability to maintain satisfactory yields on rain-fed farms. On the semi-arid northwestern slopes of Mount Kenya, irrigation systems structured around Community Water Projects (CWPs) provide households with piped water, which helps mitigate drought impacts and enhances resilience to increasingly variable rainfall patterns. The vision of these irrigation systems is to equitably distribute water resources among CWP members both for household consumption and to maintain or improve agricultural yields. However, not all households receive equal quantities of water from their CWPs, and little is known about the impact of water provisioning on farmers' opinions or perceptions of CWP performance. In this study, we relate respondents' satisfaction with their CWPs to the quantity of water delivered. Not surprisingly, farmers who received low quantities of water from their CWPs expressed above-average rates of concern regarding drought. In contrast, satisfaction with one's CWP was unrelated to the absolute quantity of water received (log liters/minute), but it was strongly associated with relative measures of water delivery: respondents who received less water than other members of the same water project experienced high rates of dissatisfaction, as did respondents who received less water than in the past. These results suggest that Kenyan farmers may feel particularly dissatisfied and, perhaps, particularly driven to demand improved water governance when they perceive inadequate water delivery relative to some reference group. Because relative water quantity dictates satisfaction even after controlling for factors that can be resolved internally at the CWP level (by, for example, striving for uniformity of water flows across and within households), water project managers are limited to some degree in their ability to improve satisfaction through better governance. That said, governance actions that prevent declines in flows over time (e.g. maintaining infrastructure to reduce leaks) could ostensibly lead to meaningful improvements in member satisfaction.",Drivers of farmer satisfaction with small-scale irrigation systems,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3984236,"Developing low temperature, low cost metal oxide gas sensors remains a critical but elusive goal. Additionally, a better understanding of gas-metal oxide interactions during sensing is required to achieve this goal as well as improving the performance of these devices. Here, the authors describe a paper-based gas sensor (PGS) utilizing SnO2 nanoparticles to detect ethanol, CO, and benzene. Proof-of-concept sensor data indicate that the response was increased and viable operating temperature was lowered (≤50 °C) via plasma surface modification techniques using an Ar/O2 gas mixture at a range of applied rf powers and precursor pressures. Temperature dependent response also demonstrates that sensor selectivity can be tuned with plasma treatment parameters. Ethanol response and recovery behavior at operating temperatures ≤50 °C indicate that sensors demonstrate real-Time response at relatively low temperatures. Additionally, although the resistance of the PGS does not fully recover postgas exposure, the signal stability and continued response to ethanol with subsequent exposures indicate that sensors could potentially be used multiple times. Optical emission spectroscopy identified species involved in plasma surface modification processes and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy elucidated how these changes in surface chemistry correlate to PGS performance. The combination of these techniques provides insight into the driving factors controlling the gas detection process. This approach to produce PGSs shows great promise for the fabrication of flexible, inexpensive devices capable of operating at much lower temperatures than current metal-oxide based sensors. © 2020 Author(s).",Utilizing plasma modified SnO2paper gas sensors to better understand gas-surface interactions at low temperatures,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2364473,"The study area is located in the southern part of the city of Kielce, in the district named Bialogon, where metallurgical and machine-building industries have operated for more than 200 years. The immediate cause for creating the Bialogonski Pond was power demand of the Alexander's Metalworks functioning in this area. In 1993, the Pond underwent drainage, whereas the soils formed on its ground still indicate significant enrichment in heavy metals. The content of heavy metals (mg.kg(-1)) in soils of the study area ranges from: 22.40 to 395.73 for Cr; 14.80 to 177.53 for Cu; 21.30 to 103.1 for Ni; 47.00 to 1617 for Pb; and 456.60 to 1646 for Zn. The largest exceedances among the analysed soil samples were noted for Zn, Pb and Cr, i.e. 100%, 85.7% and 42.9% of samples, respectively. At present, the physicochemical properties of developed mineral-organic and organic formations (pH 6.0-8.0 as well as high organic matter content) do not facilitate leaching and migration of deposited elements to environment, including ground and underground waters. Nevertheless, the location of the contaminated area within the protection zone of the largest municipal drinking water intake for Kielce requires conducting continuous monitoring.",ASSESSMENT OF THE LONG-TERM ANTHROPOGENIC IMPACT ON THE DEGREE OF HEAVY METAL CONTAMINATION OF ORGANIC ALLUVIA DEPOSITED IN THE AREA OF THE BIALOGONSKI POND,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2361424,"For small tropical islands with limited freshwater resources, understanding how island hydrology is influenced by regional climate is important, considering projected hydroclimate and sea level changes as well as growing populations dependent on limited groundwater resources. However, the relationship between climate variability and hydrologic variability for many tropical islands remains uncertain due to local hydroclimatic data scarcity. Here, we present a case study from Kiritimati, Republic of Kiribati (2 degrees N, 157 degrees W), utilizing the normalized difference vegetation index to investigate variability in island surface water area, an important link between climate variability and groundwater storage. Kiritimati surface water area varies seasonally, following wet and dry seasons, and interannually, due to hydroclimate variability associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The NINO3.4 sea surface temperature index, satellite-derived precipitation, precipitation minus evaporation, and local sea level all had significant positive correlations with surface water area. Lagged correlations show sea level changes and precipitation influence surface water area up to 6 months later. Differences in the timing of surface water area changes and variable climate-surface water area correlations in island subregions indicate that surface hydrology on Kiritimati is not uniform in response to climate variations. Rather, the magnitude of the ocean-atmosphere anomalies and island-ocean connectivity determine the extent to which sea level and precipitation control surface water area. The very strong 2015-2016 El Nino event led to the largest surface water area measured in the 18-year data set. Surface water area decreased to pre-event values in a similarly rapid manner (<6 months) after both the very strong 2015-2016 event and the 2009-2010 moderate El Nino event. Future changes in the frequency and amplitude of interannual hydroclimate variability as well as seasonal duration will thus alter surface water coverage on Kiritimati, with implications for freshwater resources, flooding, and drought.",The hydrological response of surface water to recent climate variability: A remote sensing case study from the central tropical Pacific,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+772891,"The type and frequency of disturbances experienced by soil microbiomes is expected to increase given predicted global climate change scenarios and intensified anthropogenic pressures on ecosystems. While the direct effect of multiple disturbances to soil microbes has been explored in terms of function, their effect on the recovery of microbial community composition remains unclear. Here, we used soil microcosm experiments and multiple model disturbances to explore their short-term effect on the recovery of soil microbiota after identical or novel stresses. Soil microcosms were exposed to a heat shock to create an initial effect. Upon initial community recovery (25 days after stress), they were subjected to a second stress, either a heat or a cold shock, and they were monitored for additional 25 days. To carefully verify the bacterial response to the disturbances, we monitored changes in community composition throughout the experiment using 16S rRNA gene transcript amplicon sequencing. The application of a heat shock to soils with or without the initial heat shock resulted in similar successional dynamics, but these dynamics were faster in soils with a prior heat shock. The application of a cold shock had negligible effects on previously undisturbed soils but, in combination with an initial heat shock, caused the largest shift in the community composition. Our findings show that compounded perturbation affects bacterial community recovery by altering community structure and thus, the community's response during succession. By altering dominance patterns, disturbance legacy affects the microbiome's ability to recover from further perturbation within the 25 days studied. Our results highlight the need to consider the soil's disturbance history in the development of soil management practices in order to maintain the system's resilience.",Legacy Effects on the Recovery of Soil Bacterial Communities from Extreme Temperature Perturbation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+227886,"We examined the effect of regional climate warming on the phenology of butterfly species in boreal forest ecosystems in Manitoba, Canada. For the period 1971-2004, the mean monthly temperatures in January, September, and December increased significantly, as did the mean temperatures for several concurrent monthly periods The mean annual temperature increased approximate to 0.05 degrees C/yr over the study period. The annual number of frost-free days and degree-day accumulations increased as well. We measured the response of 19 common butterfly species to these temperature changes with the date of first appearance, week of peak abundance, and the length of flight period over the 33-yr period of 1972-2004. Although adult butterfly response was variable for spring and summer months, 13 of 19 species showed a significant (P < 0.05) increase in flight period extending longer into the autumn Flight period extensions increased by 31 5 +/- 13.9 (SD) clover the study period for 13 butterfly species significantly affected by the warming trend. The early autumn and winter months warmed significantly, and butterflies seem to be responding to this warming trend with a change in the length of certain life stages Two species, Junonia coenia and Enphydryas phaeton, increased their northerly ranges by 150 and 70 km, respectively Warmer autumns and winters may be providing opportunities for range extensions of more southerly butterfly species held at bay by past climatic conditions.","Effect of Regional Climate Warming on the Phenology of Butterflies in Boreal Forests in Manitoba, Canada",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2459400,"The building stock consumes large amounts of resources for maintenance and expansion which is only exacerbated by disaster events where large-scale reconstruction must occur quickly. Recent research has shown the potential for application of material stock (MS) accounts for informing disaster risk planning. In this research, we present a methodological approach to analyze the vulnerability of the material stock in buildings to extreme weather events and sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change. The main island of Grenada, a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) in the Caribbean region, was used as a case study. A bottom-up approach based on a geographic information system (GIS) is used to calculate the total MS of aggregate, timber, concrete, and steel in buildings. The total MS in buildings in 2014 was calculated to be 11.9 million tonnes (Mt), which is equivalent to 112 tonnes per capita. Material gross addition to stock (GAS) between 1993 to 2009 was 6.8 Mt and the average value over the time period was 4.0 tonnes per capita per year. In the year following Hurricane Ivan (2004), the per capita GAS for timber increased by 172%, while for other metals, GAS spiked by 103% (compared to average growth rates of 11% and 8%, respectively, between 1993 and 2009). We also ran a future “Ivan-II” scenario and estimated a hypothetical loss of between 135 and 216 kilotonnes (kt) of timber from the building stock. The potential impact of SLR is also assessed, with an estimated 1.6 Mt of building material stock exposed under a 2-m scenario. We argue that spatial material stock accounts have an important application in planning for resilience and provide indication of the link between natural disaster recovery and resource use patterns. © 2019 by Yale University",The weight of islands: Leveraging Grenada's material stocks to adapt to climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+444481,"Understanding changing trends and frequency of extreme rainfall and temperature events is extremely important for optimal planning in many sectors, including agriculture, water resource management, health, and even economics. For people living in the Jordan River region of the Middle East such changes can have immediate devastating impacts as water resources are already scarce and overexploited and summer temperatures in the desert regions can reach 45 degrees C or higher. Understanding shifts in frequency and intensity of extreme events can provide crucial information for planning and adaptation. In this paper we present results from regional climate model simulations with RegCM3 and MM5 centered on the eastern Mediterranean region. Our analysis focuses on changes in extreme temperature and rainfall events. We show that maximum daily summer temperature is expected to increase by between 2.5 degrees C and 3 degrees C, with an increase in warm spell length. Precipitation extremes are expected to increase with longer dry spells, shorter wet spells, and increases in heavy rainfall. Model agreement for the control period 1961- 1990 is higher in the southern region than in the north, perhaps because of the complex topography, suggesting that even small differences in spatial scale play an important role. In addition, we notice that the chosen global model plays an important role in determining future temperature trends, while the choice of regional climate model is critical for understanding how precipitation is expected to evolve.",Extreme value indicators in highly resolved climate change simulations for the Jordan River area,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1371051,The article talks about the US Hurricane coasts and how they are becoming increasingly vulnerable over the years. It also talks about the settlement history of United States as a series of migrations over a period of time and the population growth of the country. Coastal migration has increased in the last decade but migration to the hurricane coasts are worrisome because of the increasing dangers of climate change and hurricanes affecting the growth and development of the society which especially was felt after the Katrina hurricane that hit New Orleans and Mississippi's Gulf Coast in 2005. The article also talks about the setting in of this year's hurricane season and the danger and vulnerability other communities along the Gulf of Mexico are exposed to.,The U.S. hurricane coasts: Increasingly vulnerable?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+167922,"Atmospheric warming and enhanced melting of glaciers is already resulting in changes in the glacial contribution to run-off in mountain basins around the world. The enhanced melting of glaciers leads at first to increased run-off and discharge peaks and an increased melt season, while in the longer time frame glacier wasting can be so severe that it results in decreased run-off. Glacier basins with a decreasing run-off trend have been observed in south-central British Columbia, at low elevations in the Swiss Alps and in the central Andes of Chile, which is probably a combined effect of reduced melt from seasonal snow cover as the snow line rises, and relevant glacier area losses. In contrast, significant run-off increases are reported in Alberta, north-western British Columbia and Yukon in Canada, in highly glacierized basins in the Swiss and Austrian Alps, the Tianshan Mountains and Tibet in central Asia and in the tropical Andes of Peru. The run-off increase within these basins is closely related to observed temperature rise, indicating that there is an unequivocal signal of enhanced glacier melting under the present warming trends. In future warming scenarios, glacier run-off should start to decrease even in high-altitude basins, affecting water availability. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Detection of changes in glacial run-off in alpine basins: examples from North America, the Alps, central Asia and the Andes",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+1354853,"The International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional climate model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3) multiyear simulations of East Africa rainfall during the October-December, short rains season are evaluated. Two parallel runs; based on NCEP reanalysis and NASA FvGCM lateral boundary conditions are performed. The simulated monthly and seasonal rainfall climatology as well as the interannual variability are found to be fairly consistent with the observations. The model climatology over specific homogeneous climate subregions, except central Kenya (CKE) highlands, also reasonably agrees with the observed. The latitude-time evolution (intraseasonal variability) of the simulated seasonal rainfall exhibits two distinct modes of behavior. The first is a quasistationary mode associated with high rainfall throughout the season within the equatorial belt between 1 degrees S and 2 degrees N. The second mode is associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)-driven southward migration of regions of rainfall maxima as the season progresses, which is also consistent with the observed. Furthermore, observed rainfall variability over distinct homogeneous climate subregions is also fairly reproduced by the model, except over central Kenya highlands and northeastern parts of Kenya. The spatial correlation between the simulated seasonal rainfall and some of the global teleconnections (DMI and Nino3.4 indices) shows that the regional model conserves some of the observed regional 'hot spots' where rainfall-ENSO/DMI associations are strong. At the same time, unlike observations, the model reveals that along the East Africa Rift Valley and over western parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, the association is weak, perhaps an indication that nonlinear interactions between local forcing (captured by the model) and large-scale systems either suppress or obscur the dominant influence of the teleconnections on rainfall over certain parts. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.",Variability of East African rainfall based on multiyear RegCM3 simulations,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+430498,"The consequences of changes observed in climate and management to yield trends in major crop-producing regions have implications for future food availability. We present an assessment of the impacts of historical changes in sowing date and climate to the maize yield trend in the U.S. Corn Belt from 1980 to 2006 by using large-area crop modeling and a data assimilation technique (i.e., the model optimization based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo method). Calibrated at a regional scale, the model captured the major characteristics of the changes reported in yield as well as the timing and length of maize growth periods across the Corn Belt. The simulation results using the calibrated model indicate that while the climate change observed for the period likely contributed to a decreasing yield trend, the positive contribution from the reported shift to an earlier sowing date offset the negative impacts. With the given spread in the assessment results across previous studies and in this study, the conclusion that the negative impacts of climate change on U.S. maize yield trend more likely derive from a decreasing trend in growing-season precipitation than to an increasing trend in temperature.",Contributions of historical changes in sowing date and climate to US maize yield trend: An evaluation using large-area crop modeling and data assimilation,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1945970,"Climate change has caused many ecological changes around the world. Altered phenology is among the most commonly observed effects of climate change, and the list of species interactions affected by altered phenology is growing. Although many studies on altered phenology focus on single species or on pairwise species interactions, most ecological communities are comprised of numerous, ecologically similar species within trophic groups. Using a 12-year butterfly monitoring citizen science data set, we aimed to assess the degree to which butterfly communities may be changing over time. Specifically, we wanted to assess the degree to which phenological sensitivities to temperature could affect temporal overlap among species within communities, independent of changes in abundance, species richness, and evenness. We found that warming winter temperatures may be associated with some butterfly species making use of the coldest months of the year to fly as adults, thus changing temporal co-occurrence with other butterfly species. Our results suggest that changing temperatures could cause immediate restructuring of communities without requiring changes in overall abundance or diversity. Such changes could have fitness consequences for individuals within trophic levels by altering competition for resources, as well as indirect effects mediated by species interactions across trophic levels.",Drifting Phenologies Cause Reduced Seasonality of Butterflies in Response to Increasing Temperatures,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+699336,"The importance of mangrove and seagrass lagoonal habitats as nursery areas for many reef-associated fish species is well established in the scientific literature. However, few studies have examined the relative use by nursery species of different sub-habitats within such systems. Here, we investigated fish community structure of a variety of interconnected sub-habitats of the tropical lagoon of Lac Bay in Bonaire, Dutch Caribbean. Visual census was used to test the degree to which these sub-habitats may differ in their use by fishes of different species and life stages. We quantitatively sampled the fish species abundance, composition, and size structures at a total of 162 sites distributed among nine different sub-habitats that are common to mangrove and seagrass ecosystems. Fish community variables differed consistently among sub-habitats and were mainly influenced by the presence of mangrove root structure or seagrass cover. Mangrove fringe sub-habitats were a premier habitat since multiple life stages of a variety of species showed highest densities and biomass there. Several reef fish species had a distribution pattern suggesting a unique stepwise post-settlement life cycle migration in which larger juveniles and/or subadults appear to move from the open bay environment (seagrass beds or bay mangrove fringe) to the interior mangrove fringes along mangrove pools before later departing to the adult habitat of the coral reef. In the case of the well-lit and well-circulated central bay sub-habitat, the limiting factor to fish abundance and diversity appeared to be the paucity of three-dimensional shelter due to the lack of Thalassia seagrass beds. In the warm and hypersaline backwaters, physiological tolerance limits were likely a key limiting factor. Long-term changes driven by mangrove expansion into this non-estuarine lagoon have been steadily reducing the net coverage of clear bay waters, while the surface of shallow, muddy, and hypersaline backwaters, unusable by key nursery reef fish species, has been increasing by an almost equal amount. Our study shows how fish density varies along the full gradient of sub-habitats found across a tropical bay to provide insight into the potential consequences for nursery habitat function when the availability and quality of these sub-habitats change in response to the long-term dynamic processes of mangrove land reclamation and climate change.",Fish Species Utilization of Contrasting sub-Habitats Distributed Along an Ocean-to-Land Environmental Gradient in a Tropical Mangrove and Seagrass Lagoon,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+308877,"The aim of this study was to test three main hypotheses about the interannual variability of streamflow downstream from dams: (1) an almost similar long-term trend in interannual variability, (2) low variability of flow, and (3) its independence (no link) from climate variability. To test these hypotheses, the interannual variability of winter and spring streamflow downstream from three reservoirs (Gouin, Manouane, and Matawin) which induce an inversion of the natural cycle of streamflow (maximum flows in winter and minimum flows in spring) was compared to the interannual variability of streamflow in natural rivers (measured at the Matawin and Vermillon stations) over the period from 1932 to 2008 in the St-Maurice River watershed. As far as the interannual variability of flow is concerned, its long-term trend is not homogeneous downstream from the three reservoirs in both seasons. However, downstream from two reservoirs, changes in streamflow were observed to be different from those in natural rivers (no significant trend downstream from the Taureau reservoir, on the Matawin River, and significant decrease in spring flow downstream from the Manouane reservoir). Finally, coefficient of variation values for minimum flows are higher downstream from reservoirs than in natural rivers, despite the fact that watershed surface area is larger for regulated rivers than for natural ones. As for the link with climate variability, analysis of the correlation between climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and mean winter and spring daily streamflow reveals that winter streamflow downstream from the Taureau reservoir is not correlated with any climate variable, whereas spring streamflow is positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with maximum temperature. Thus, downstream from reservoirs, the interannual variability of streamflow depends on climate during the spring, but not during winter.","Reservoirs Effects on the Interannual Variability of Winter and Spring Streamflow in the St-Maurice River Watershed (Quebec, Canada)",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+773650,"It is known that extreme temperature and ambient air pollution are each independently associated with human health outcomes. However, findings from the few studies that have examined modified effects by seasons and the interaction between air pollution and temperature on health endpoints are inconsistent. This study examines the effects of short-term PM2.5 (particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 mu m in aerodynamic diameter) on hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), its modifications by season and temperature, and whether these effects are heterogeneous across different regions in New York State (NYS). We used daily average temperature and PM2.5 concentrations as exposure indicators and performed a time series analysis with a quasi-Poisson model, controlling for possible confounders, such as time-relevant variables and dew point, for CVDs in NYS, 1991-2006. Stratification parametric models were applied to evaluate the modifying effects by seasons and temperature. Across the whole year, a 10-mu g/m(3) increment in PM2.5 concentration accounted for a 1.37% increase in CVDs (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90%, 1.84%) in New York City, Long Island & Hudson. The PM2.5 effect was strongest in winter, with an additional 2.06% (95% CI: 1.33%, 2.80%) increase in CVDs observed per 10-mu g/m(3) increment in PM2.5. Temperature modified the PM2.5 effects on CVDs, and these modifications by temperature on PM2.5 effects on CVDs were found at low temperature days. These associations were heterogeneous across four PM2.5 concentration regions. PM2.5 was positively associated with CVD hospitalizations. The short-term PM2.5 effect varied with season and temperature levels, and stronger effects were observed in winter and at low temperature days. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Seasonal and temperature modifications of the association between fine particulate air pollution and cardiovascular hospitalization in New York state,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+281816,"As a consequence of global warming and an enhanced water cycle, the climate changed in northwest China, most notably in the Xinjiang area in the year 1987. Precipitation, glacial melt water and river runoff and air temperature increased continuously during the last decades, as did also the water level of inland lakes and the frequency of flood disasters. As a result, the vegetation cover is improved, number of days with sand-dust storms reduced. From the end of the 19th century to the 1970s, the climate was warm and dry, and then changed to warm and wet. The effects on northwest China can be classified into three classes by using the relation between precipitation and evaporation increase. If precipitation increases more than evaporation, runoff increases and lake water levels rise. We identify regions with: (1) notable change, (2) slight change and (3) no change. The future climate for doubled CO2 concentration is simulated in a nested approach with the regional climate model-RegCM2. The annual temperature will increase by 2.7 degrees C and annual precipitation by 25%. The cooling effect of aerosols and natural factors will reduce this increase to 2.0 degrees C and 19% of precipitation. As a consequence, annual runoff may increase by more than 10%.",Recent and future climate change in northwest china,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+219152,"Assessment of long-term impacts of projected changes in climate, population, and land use and land cover on regional water resource is critical to the sustainable development of the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to fully budget annual water availability for water supply (precipitation - evapotranspiration + groundwater supply + return flow) and demand from commercial, domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric uses. The Water Supply Stress Index and Water Supply Stress Index Ratio were developed to evaluate water stress conditions over time and across the 666 eight-digit Hydrologic Unit Code basins in the 13 southeastern states. Predictions from two Global Circulation Models (CGC1 and HadCM2Sul), one land use change model, and one human population model, were integrated to project future water supply stress in 2020. We found that population increase greatly stressed water supply in metropolitan areas located in the Piedmont region and Florida. Predicted land use and land cover changes will have little effect on water quantity and water supply-water demand relationship. In contrast, climate changes had the most pronounced effects on regional water supply and demand, especially in western Texas where water stress was historically highest in the study region. The simulation system developed by this study is useful for water resource planners to address water shortage problems such as those experienced during 2007 in the study region. Future studies should focus on refining the water supply term to include flow exchanges between watersheds and constraints of water quality and environmental flows to water availability for human use.",Impacts of Multiple Stresses on Water Demand and Supply Across the Southeastern United States,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+43013,"Rovaniemi in Finnish Lapland is the self-proclaimed official home of Santa Claus.' However, in recent years, after several warm and snowless season starts, Christmas tourism businesses have expressed concern about the future of the region's winter tourism industry. This paper examines the challenges of winter tourism operators to adapt to changing environmental conditions by surveying the responses of tourists to potential changes in winter conditions. In the light of climate change projections, maintaining the attractive image of a snow-covered winter wonderland may become impossible. Results indicate that tourists react negatively to estimated changes and planned adaptation mechanisms. This situation may force tourism entrepreneurs and destination managers to reconsider the consequences of current adaptation strategies and develop new attractions and marketing strategies in order to attract new markets and/or rebrand the destination.","Christmas Tourists' Perceptions to Climate Change in Rovaniemi, Finland",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1626859,"A category 5 tropical cyclone swept a storm surge across remote Pukapuka Atoll in the Northern Cook Islands (South Pacific Ocean) in late February 2005. Groundwater salinity (specific conductance) observations are reported for the 2-year post-storm period, with the aim of investigating the effects of saltwater intrusion on thin freshwater lenses within the atoll islets. This is the first article to present field observations of such an event. Specific conductance at shallow depths increased dramatically from potable conditions (approximately 1,000 μS/cm) to brackish levels unsuitable for drinking (up to 10,000 μS/cm) shortly after the cyclone. Subsequently, the freshwater lenses required 11 months to recover. Within the thickest aquifer, a well-defined saline plume formed at 6 m depth, sandwiching a freshwater layer beneath it and the base of the lens. Plume dispersal proceeded only gradually, owing to its formation at the start of the SW Pacific regional dry season and the low tidal range on Pukapuka. Consequently, the remnant of the plume was still present 26 months after the saltwater incursion. An important finding was that the freshwater horizon preserved at depth maintained salinity levels below 1,800 μS/cm (i.e. within usable limits) for at least 5 months after surface overwash. © 2009 Springer-Verlag.",Responses of atoll freshwater lenses to storm-surge overwash in the Northern Cook Islands,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+717558,"Ocean acidification describes the progressive, global reduction in seawater pH that is currently underway because of the accelerating oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2. Acidification is expected to reduce coral reef calcification and increase reef dissolution. Inorganic cementation in reefs describes the precipitation of CaCO3 that acts to bind framework components and occlude porosity. Little is known about the effects of ocean acidification on reef cementation and whether changes in cementation rates will affect reef resistance to erosion. Coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) are poorly developed and subject to rapid bioerosion. Upwelling processes mix cool, subthermocline waters with elevated pCO(2) (the partial pressure of CO2) and nutrients into the surface layers throughout the ETP. Concerns about ocean acidification have led to the suggestion that this region of naturally low pH waters may serve as a model of coral reef development in a high-CO2 world. We analyzed seawater chemistry and reef framework samples from multiple reef sites in the ETP and found that a low carbonate saturation state (Omega) and trace abundances of cement are characteristic of these reefs. These low cement abundances may be a factor in the high bioerosion rates previously reported for ETP reefs, although elevated nutrients in upwelled waters may also be limiting cementation and/or stimulating bioerosion. ETP reefs represent a real-world example of coral reef growth in low-Omega waters that provide insights into how the biological-geological interface of coral reef ecosystems will change in a high-CO2 world.",Poorly cemented coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific: Possible insights into reef development in a high-CO2 world,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+60518,"Increased aridity and human population have reduced tree cover in parts of the African Sahel and degraded resources for local people. Yet, tree cover trends and the relative importance of climate and population remain unresolved. From field measurements, aerial photos, and Ikonos satellite images, we detected significant 1954-2002 tree density declines in the western Sahel of 18 +/- 14% (P = 0.014, n = 204) and 17 +/- 13% (P = 0.0009, n = 187). From field observations, we detected a significant 1960 2000 species richness decline of 21 +/- 11% (P = 0.0028, n = 14) across the Sahel and a southward shift of the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea zones. Multivariate analyses of climate, soil, and population showed that temperature most significantly (P < 0.001) explained tree cover changes. Multivariate and bivariate tests and field observations indicated the dominance of temperature and precipitation, supporting attribution of tree cover changes to climate variability. Climate change forcing of Sahel climate variability, particularly the significant (P < 0.05) 1901-2002 temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the research areas, connects Sahel tree cover changes to global climate change. This suggests roles for global action and local adaptation to address ecological change in the Sahel. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Tree density and species decline in the African Sahel attributable to climate,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3976080,"Insectivorous bats populate habitats that adjoin or overlap with agricultural lands, and tend to use cultivated land for foraging and commuting. The goal of the study was to assess the principal factors influencing the activity and species richness of insectivorous bats in a semi-arid Mediterranean agroecosystem. We hypothesized that bat activity and species richness are influenced by the anthropogenic factors that are typical of agroecosystems, such as fragmentation of the landscape and loss of natural habitat, agrochemical use, presence of powerlines and roads, and proximity to urban areas. We recorded bats in a diversified semi-arid Mediterranean agroecosystem in 2012 and 2013 and estimated the effect of various anthropogenic and environmental factors on their activity. The proportion of natural and semi-natural habitats at the landscape and at the plot scale were the most important predictors of total bat activity, and of the activity the two most common species recorded, Pipistrellus kuhlii and Tadarida teniotis, both known to be synanthropic. Indeed, P. kuhlii had a positive association with the proximity to bodies of water and to settlements. Total bat activity was negatively associated with the use of agrochemicals. Thus, in line with our predictions, both the proportion of natural land cover in the environment and the use of agrochemicals play an important role in determining bat distribution in agricultural environments. Ecological inferences based on our results can be used to develop management schemes, such as restoring patches of natural vegetation near and within farmlands, to increase the suitability of agroecosystems as habitats for insectivorous bats. These could contribute both to the protection of endangered bat species and to bio-control of insect pests. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.",Insectivorous bats in semi-arid agroecosystems − effects on foraging activity and implications for insect pest control,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+899353,"A conceptual water balance model is applied in a distributed structure to model monthly river flow in tributaries of two very large river systems which exhibit non-stationary behaviour, the Parana in South America and the Niger in West Africa. The approach utilises global data sets of rainfall and potential evaporation (PE) time series and soil available water capacity at 0.5 degree latitude and longitude resolution. River flow data for tributaries ranging in size from 631 to 71 510 km(2) for the period 1931-1990 (Parana) and 1950-1989 (Niger) are used to calibrate and validate the model. The results show varying degrees of model performance during both the calibration and validation procedure. The analysis highlights some interesting issues pertaining to the development and application of water balance models such as sensitivity of model performance and parameter values to input data sets, particularly the method chosen to estimate PE. The paper ends with an analysis of prolonged fluctuation in flow characteristics exhibited by both rivers after the early 1970s, associated with fluctuation in rainfall regime and possibly change in land use or land cover. Between 1931-1971 and 1972-1990 Parana river flows increased by similar to 28% (rainfall increase similar to 5%) and between 1950-1969 and 1970-1989 Niger river flows decreased by similar to 34% (rainfall decrease similar to 14%). Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",River flow modelling in two large river basins with non-stationary behaviour: the Parana and the Niger,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+695214,"Species' responses to environmental changes are highly idiosyncratic and context-dependent. Although intrinsic traits (i.e. those that define species niches) may play a key role, little empirical evidence exists regarding their relationship to demographic responses. We used data for 66 butterfly species representing five ecological and two life-history traits to study the effect these factors have on population growth rates and variations in populations. Using a novel methodological approach, we provide here improved estimates of population change. Our results reveal declines in 70% and increases in 23% of the studied species, clear evidence of more serious population declines in Catalan butterflies than those that have previously been reported. Declines were associated with species' degree of habitat specialisation and the number of generations. For all species, fluctuations were greater within than between years and, on average, the latter was 1.5 times greater. Our results indicated that habitat specialists and multivoltine species are more likely to suffer severe annual fluctuations in population abundance; and that multivoltine species and extreme larval specialists had the most marked fluctuations within seasons. We also found higher resilience to environmental changes in generalist species, which is concordant with biotic homogenisation in disturbed communities. However, among the declining species there were also many generalists, which indicates a potential general reduction in this group that goes beyond faunal homogenisation. Given butterflies are biodiversity indicators, these patterns are a possible reflection of an overall impoverishment in biodiversity. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",General declines in Mediterranean butterflies over the last two decades are modulated by species traits,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2185223,"The Loess Plateau is located at the transition zone between agriculture and livestock farming; its spatial and temporal pattern of drought is the key for an appropriate adaptation to climate change. This study investigated monthly meteorological observation data of 79 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2014 to calculate the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index at different time scales. The spatial and temporal characteristics and persistence of drought were analyzed. The results showed the following: (i) The drought trend is most apparent in spring (0.096/10a) and lower in summer (0.036/10a) and autumn (0.009/10a). (ii) A higher drought level indicates a lower frequency of droughts occurrence and vice versa. The frequency of light drought was highest (11.36%), while that of extreme drought was lowest (0.12%). (iii) The mean drought intensity was highest in summer, followed by spring, autumn, and winter. The drought intensity was mainly light, showing a pattern of severe drought in the northwest and light drought in the southeast. (iv) The Loess Plateau will continue a trend of drought in the future, but the season of the continuous intensity will differ. Droughts in spring and summer are highly persistent, autumn drought trends continue but may slow, and winter droughts become random events.",Drought Under Global Warming and Climate Change: An Empirical Study of the Loess Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3296159,"Cold drylands make up 20% of the world's water-limited regions. This paper presents a modification to the Time Series Segmented-RESidual TRENDs (TSS-RESTRENDs) method that allows for the use of temperature as an additional explanatory variable along with precipitation. TSS-RESTREND was performed over Mongolia, both with and without temperature. The addition of temperature reduced the number of pixels that fail the significance tests built into the TSS-RESTREND method from 17% to below 5%. It also improved the statistical confidence in almost all areas. Furthermore, the direction of change is consistent with previous findings that looked at vegetation trends over the same study region. When applied to all of the world's drylands, the inclusion of temperature improved the fit of the vegetation-climate relationship that underpins TSS-RESTREND in 98.8% of areas. The largest improvements to the fit were observed in both the cold drylands of central Asia and North America and the hot drylands of southern Australia. Including temperature also reduced the fraction of global vegetation change that could be attributed to neither climate nor land use from 25.5% to 15.5%.",The Addition of Temperature to the TSS-RESTREND Methodology Significantly Improves the Detection of Dryland Degradation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+667719,"The impacts of climate change on fires are expected to be highly variable spatially and temporally. In heavily anthropized landscapes, the great number of factors affecting fire regimes further limits our ability to predict future fire activity caused by climate. To address this, we develop a new framework for analysing regional changes in fire regimes from specific spatiotemporal patterns of fires and climate, so-called pyroclimates. We aim to test the trends of fire activity and climate (1973-2009) across the Mediterranean and mountain ecosystems of south-eastern France, and to define the spatial distribution of pyroclimates. Stepwise-PCA and cluster analyses reveal that three pyroclimates capture the spatiotemporal patterns associated with fire regime and climatic conditions. Trend tests indicate a high significant increase in spring temperature and fire weather severity for most of the study area. In contrast, a general decreasing pattern of fire activity is observed since the early 1990s, specifically during summer in historically burned regions. However, winter and spring fires are becoming more frequent and extensive in less fire-prone mountains. Cross-correlation analyses indicate that inter-annual variations in extreme fire weather and fire activity were highly correlated. However, the intensity of relationships is pyroclimate-dependent. Our findings reveal that fire-climate relationships changed rapidly over space and time, presumably according to regional changes in land-use and fire policy. Assessing pyroclimates offers new perspectives for fire management and policy by delineating homogeneous zones with respect to fire, climate and their recent trends, and by revealing geographic contrasts in the underlying fire drivers.",Spatiotemporal patterns of changes in fire regime and climate: defining the pyroclimates of south-eastern France (Mediterranean Basin),1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1894354,"The oceans and coastal areas are dynamic environments in which variability occurs at a wide range of temporal scales, from seconds to years to decades and longer. Some very good time series now exist at specific locations, that permit characterization of this variability as well as of longer-term trends, but for much of the world ocean the in situ data is sparse and such characterization is not possible, or possible only by extrapolation. For these less well-studied areas, satellite imagery and gridded products created from a combination of satellite and in situ data are the only available sources of continuous historical information. Satellite imagery provides regular, spatially synoptic, global information, at spatial resolutions on the order of 1km and temporal resolutions typically measured in days. Some sensors offer higher spatial resolutions but at lower temporal resolution. With accumulated time series of up to 30 years or longer for some satellites and other gridded datasets, we can now begin to use this technology to identify and track long-term change, as well as to characterize shorter-term variability. In this paper we will discuss the analysis of long-term change and trends in marine and coastal environments using examples from recent projects. We will illustrate vegetation changes in and around the Anderson River delta on the Beaufort Sea coast of the Arctic Ocean using 30m spatial resolution Landsat imagery acquired over a 31-year period from 1972 to 2003. Using a temporal classification approach, we map both interannual variability and long-term losses on the mudflats of the delta itself, and gains on the nearby tundra. In a second example, we illustrate how chlorophyll and sea surface temperature (SST) vary locally within the northeast Pacific, and how temporal patterns and trends also vary regionally, using 24 years of weekly 4km resolution sea surface temperature from the weather satellites, and 11 years of weekly 9km chlorophyll composite data products from ocean colour satellites. Finally, we show examples of trends and anomalies calculated from 41 years of sea ice distribution, concentrations and ice type in the Beaufort Sea, using ice chart maps produced by the Canadian Ice Service from a combination of satellite, airborne and in situ observations. The weekly ice charts provide coverage of the entire western hemisphere of the Arctic Ocean over the continental shelf, slope and rise areas at a spatial resolution of 4 km for a total of 26 distinct ice parameters spanning the years 1968 to the present. Using this rich data source, the analysis of long-term trends in relation to seasonal and interannual variability can be used to estimate potential changes due to climate change for local and regional areas, which are shown to vary considerably from one region to another. The availability of data from all of the sources discussed over extended time periods of 30 years or longer provides a means of assessing the potential degree of climate change that has been occurring over the present and earlier decades. This information can also be useful in calibrating and validating models that can be applied to anticipate and quantify the effects of climate change which may occur in future decades.",Examining Change and Long-Term Trends in the Marine Environment Using Satellite-Based Time,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1855196,"Sri Lanka is a rapidly urbanizing country with 70% of its urban population and 80% of national economic infrastructure concentrated along the coastal cities of the country which are more susceptible for climate change impact and disaster risks. Drought is one of the worst natural disasters that affect Sri Lanka and create numerous problems by making adverse impacts to the economy of the country. Forecasting the drought period before the occurrence and implementation of appropriate drought management strategies may help to reduce the disaster risk and its related impacts mainly in coastal cities of Sri Lanka. Meteorological droughts eventually trigger other forms of droughts in Sri Lanka and it leads to water scarcity due to insufficient precipitation and high evaporation or combination of both. This study analyses the time series characteristics of total monthly precipitation and mean monthly temperature from year 1950 to 2013 for Mannar urban development area located in coastal zone of Sri Lanka to identify specific drought period in Mannar urban development area since it has been changing due to different climate change scenarios. Brainstorming approach was applied to identify sustainable drought management strategies and to validate the above identified drought period as an outcome of time series analyses and location specific information on drought in ground situation by consulting community and other prospective stakeholders in the area. Weather data was analyzed applying decomposition method of time series analyses which include trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular components. Considering results of time series analyses, high temperature and severe drought situation can be identified in Mannar urban development area from March to September while observing highest rainfall during October to December every year. The total monthly precipitation in Mannar has been increasing by 0.0194 mm while mean monthly temperature is increasing by 0.0004 degrees C. As drought management strategies, the excess water of three months rainy season could be better utilized by developing new irrigation tanks and existing abundant tanks in many parts of the Mannar urban development area. Rain water harvesting and introducing new crops suitable for changing climatic conditions will be encouraged for sustainable dry farming activities in Mannar urban development area. Vertical greenery on walls, greenery on roof tops and green paving are being planned and building design strategies that can be promoted to reduce the heat environment of Mannar urban development area in sustainable Mannar.","Time Series Analyses of Total Monthly Precipitation and Mean Monthly Temperature for Sustainable Drought Management in Mannar, Sri Lanka",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+533175,"A number of recent studies have examined trends in sea ice cover using ordinary least squares regression. In this study, quantile regression is applied to analyse other aspects of the distribution of sea ice extent. More specifically, trends in the mean, maximum, and minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic are investigated. While there is a significant decreasing trend in mean Arctic sea ice extent of 4.5% per decade from 1979 through 2010, the Antarctic results show a small positive trend of 2.3% per decade. In some cases such as the Antarctic minimum ice cover, selected quantile regressions yield slope estimates that differ from trends in the mean. It was also found that the variability in Antarctic sea ice extent is higher than that in the Arctic. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society",Analysis of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent using quantile regression,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+171392,"Once-per-year (annual) maximum temperature extremes in North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) models are projected to increase more (less) than mean daily maximum summer temperatures over much of the eastern (western) United States. In contrast, the models almost everywhere project greater warming of once-per-year minimum temperatures as compared to mean daily minimum winter temperatures. Under projected changes associated with extremes of the temperature distribution, Baltimore's maximum temperature that was met or exceeded once per year historically is projected to occur 17 times per season by midcentury, a 28% increase relative to projections based on summer mean daily maximum temperature change. Under the same approach, historical once-per-year cold events in Baltimore are projected to occur once per decade. The models are generally able to capture observed geopotential height anomalies associated with temperature extremes in two subregions. Projected changes in extreme temperature events cannot be explained by geopotential height anomalies or lower boundary conditions as reflected by soil moisture anomalies or snow water equivalent.",Projected changes in extreme temperature events based on the NARCCAP model suite,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+734380,"Few studies on population-specific health effects of extreme temperature on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) deaths have been conducted in the subtropical and tropical climates of China. We examined the association between extreme temperature and CVD across four cities in China. We performed a two-stage analysis; we generated city-specific estimates using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and estimated the overall effects by conducting a meta-analysis. Heat thresholds of 29 degrees C, 29 degrees C, 29 degrees C, and 30 degrees C and cold thresholds of 6 degrees C, 10 degrees C, 14 degrees C, and 15 degrees C were observed in Hefei, Changsha, Nanning, and Haikou, respectively. The lag periods for heat-related CVD mortality were observed only for 0-2 days, while those of cold-related CVD mortality were observed for 10-15 days. The meta-analysis showed that a 1 degrees C increase above the city-specific heat threshold was associated with average overall CVD mortality increases of 4.6% (3.0%-6.2%), 6.4% (3.4%-9.4%), and 0.2% (-4.8%-5.2%) for all ages, 65 years, and <65 years over a lag period of 0-2 days, respectively. Similarly, a 1 degrees C decrease below the city-specific cold threshold was associated with average overall CVD mortality increases of 4.2% (3.0%-5.4%), 4.9% (3.5%-6.3%), and 3.1% (1.7%-4.5%), for all ages, 65 years, and <65 years over a lag period of 0-15 days, respectively. This work will help to take appropriate measures to reduce temperature-mortality risk in different populations in the subtropical and tropical climates of China.",Temperature and Cardiovascular Mortality Associations in Four Southern Chinese Cities: A Time-Series Study Using a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+325492,"Habitat degradation and climate change are thought to be altering the distributions and abundances of animals and plants throughout the world, but their combined impacts have not been assessed for any species assemblage(1-4). Here we evaluated changes in the distribution sizes and abundances of 46 species of butterflies that approach their northern climatic range margins in Britain-where changes in climate and habitat are opposing forces. These insects might be expected to have responded positively to climate warming over the past 30 years, yet three-quarters of them declined: negative responses to habitat loss have outweighed positive responses to climate warming. Half of the species that were mobile and habitat generalists increased their distribution sites over this period (consistent with a climate explanation), whereas the other generalists and 89% of the habitat specialists declined in distribution size (consistent with habitat limitation). Changes in population abundances closely matched changes in distributions. The dual forces of habitat modification and climate change are likely to cause specialists to decline, leaving biological communities with reduced numbers of species and dominated by mobile and widespread habitat generalists.",Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3029244,"A numerical and experimental study has been made for the development of high efficiency cyclone dust separator applicable to the extreme environments of high pressure of 6 bar and temperature up to 400 degrees C. The main objective of this study is to develop a handy and reliable computer program and thereby to figure out the physical mechanism of dust collection for high temperature and pressure condition. The program is developed using Patankar's SIMPLE method for the application of 2-D axi-symmetric flow field. The two-equation turbulence k-epsilon model is employed for the resolution of Reynolds stresses. Further the particle trajectory calculation is made by the incorporation of drag, centrifugal and coriolis force in a Lagrangian frame. The calculated results predict well the general trend and its magnitude of the experimentally measured pressure drop with the condition of increased pressure and temperature as a function of flow rate. Further, experiment shows that the increase of pressure and temperature generally affect significantly the collection efficiency of fine particle less than 10 mu m but the effect of pressure and temperature appears contrary each other. That is, the increase of pressure increases the collection efficiency, while the increase of the temperature results in the decrease of the efficiency over a certain range of flow rate. This is explained well by the variation of the gaseous density and viscosity effect on the drag force and also confirmed successfully by the result of numerical calculation. Therefore the decrease of fractional collection efficiency caused by the high operating temperature can be remedied by the increase of operating pressure. In order to investigate in more detail the effect of extreme condition on the physics of collection efficiency, a series of parametric numerical investigations are performed in terms of major cyclone design or operational parameters such as tangential velocity and vortex finder length, etc. As expected, tangential velocity plays the most important effect on the particle collection even for the elevated temperature and pressure condition. But there is no remarkable difference noted between reference and extreme condition. And the length of vortex finder has relatively insignificant effect on collection characteristics but the diameter of vortex finder plays an important role for the enhancement of collection efficiency. The incorporation of a proper turbulence model of the nonlinear term appeared by relative velocity between gas and particle phase for drag calculation of particle trajectory is considered as one of the important tasks for the more accurate resolution of physical feature for elevated temperature and pressure condition in near future. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",A numerical and experimental study on a high efficiency cyclone dust separator for high temperature and pressurized environments,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3928891,"Several research projects significantly contributed to the reputation of Western Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus as flagship of conservation goals in mountain forest ecosystems. In this article, we summarise, synthesise and evaluate the major findings of the projects presented in this journal's issue. All publications concern Capercaillie studies conducted in Switzerland during the last decade. We concentrate on the results that are particularly important for the conservation of the species and influence conceptual decisions of a Capercaillie action plan. Based on our results, we recommend to plan conservation at the large scale and to consider (i) the ecological potential of a landscape as Capercaillie habitat, (ii) the recent distribution of local populations, (iii) the forest stand mosaic of each habitat patch, and (iv) the limiting factors of each regional population for the development and implementation of a national action plan. Conservation measures should aim to increase the carrying capacity of suitable habitat, support a population network and the exchange of individuals among populations, and reduce the impact of human disturbance. Thus, conceptual decisions need to be taken at the large, national scale whereas concrete measures should consider regional peculiarities.",From Western Capercaillie research to species conservation: A project synthesis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3252018,"In January 1998, eastern North America experienced the worst ice storm ever recorded, which resulted in major damage to forests throughout the region. However, we know little about the long-term effects of such a severe weather event, or how its potential interaction with other biotic factors impacted tree mortality. In this study, we investigated the long-term influence of the 1998 ice storm on tree mortality in Boise-des-Muir ecological reserve, an old-growth forest in southern Quebec (Canada). Mortality rates for four out of the five tree species studied showed a striking increase a few years after the ice storm, between 2000 and 2004. After this peak, tree mortality rates remained higher than before 1998. These results indicate a lagged and persistent effect of the ice storm on tree mortality and suggest that the tree community of Boise-des-Muir was more severely impacted than previously reported. Tree species were differentially damaged by the ice storm, and more than 25% of all tree species lost more than half their crown. Using a Cox proportional hazard model, we evaluated the impact of different levels of initial canopy damage from the ice storm on long-term tree mortality while taking into account other important biotic factors, such as tree size, tree density, indices of species-specific competition, and the presence of the beech scale insect. Species differed in their response to the storm, suggesting fundamental differences in sensitivity to extreme weather events. In particular, eastern hop-hornbeam (Ostrya virginiana) and American beech (Fagus grandifolia) were the species most vulnerable to the ice storm, and severe canopy loss led to a large increase in mortality risk. These findings suggest that the difference in tree survival following a natural disturbance likely depends not only on the severity of the damage itself, but also on species-specific ability to repair injuries and maintain physiological processes. We also found that tree size and species-specific competition influenced tree mortality significantly but did not interact with level of canopy loss. Consequently, multiple biotic factors remain important to explain mortality even after a major disturbance and should be considered when evaluating tree mortality. Our results show that the impact of the ice storm on tree mortality was species-specific, lagged and persisted for several years after the disturbance, potentially resulting in long-term compositional changes in the forest. This underscores the necessity of conducting long-term monitoring studies to understand the complete impacts of ice storms and other extreme climatic events on forests.",Long-term impact of a major ice storm on tree mortality in an old-growth forest,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+81331,"The association between climate change and the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events is now well established. General circulation models of climate change predict that heatwaves will become more frequent and intense, especially in the higher latitudes, affecting large metropolitan areas that are not well adapted to them. Exposure to extreme heat is already a significant public health problem and the primary cause of weather-related mortality in the U.S. This article reviews major epidemiologic risk factors associated with mortality from extreme heat exposure and discusses future drivers of heat-related mortality, including a warming climate, the urban heat island effect, and an aging population. In addition, it considers critical areas of an effective public health response including heat response plans, the use of remote sensing and GIS methodologies, and the importance of effective communications strategies.",Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+413349,"The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region with its surrounding mountains in central Asia is a region that has been warming at an alarming rate and is sensitive to climate change due to its heterogeneous terrain and high altitude. In a region where research is limited due to the paucity of field-based biophysical observations, analysis of remotely sensed data such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) can provide invaluable information on spatio-temporal patterns in linkages among land use, climate and vegetative phenological cycles, and trends in vegetative cover. In this study, NDVI data with 8 km spatial resolution for each 15 day composite period from 1982 to 2006 were analysed using a seasonal trend analysis technique, where the first step determines the annual mean and seasonal NDVI patterns across the HKH region. The second step analyses the non-parametric trends in magnitude and timing of the annual mean and seasonal NDVI cycle. The seasonal vegetation cycles were compared for the first and last ten years of the time series and were also analysed across areas undergoing significant change. Results indicated an overall greening trend in NDVI magnitude in most areas, particularly over open shrubland, grassland and cropland. Trends in the annual seasonal timing of NDVI indicated an earlier green-up for most parts of this region. Results also confirmed deforestation trends observed in a few states in northeastern India and Myanmar (Shan state) within the HKH region.",Time-series analysis of NDVI from AVHRR data over the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region for the period 1982-2006,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+110797,"The effect of climate change on snow water equivalent, snowmelt runoff, glacier melt runoff and total streamflow and their distribution is examined for the Spiti river. This is a high altitude Himalayan river located in the western Himalayan region. The total streamflow of this fiver has a significant contribution from snow and glacier melt runoff. Plausible hypothetical scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes based on the simulation of climate change over the Indian subcontinent by the Hamburg climate model are adopted in the present study. The UBC watershed model was used to simulate the hydrological response of the basin under changed climatic scenarios. The adopted changes in temperature and precipitation covered a range from 1 to 3 degrees C and from -10 to +10%, respectively. Snow water equivalent reduces with an increase in air temperature. However, no significant change is found in the snow water equivalent of the Spiti basin by the projected increase in air temperature (T + 1 to T + 3 degrees C). An increase of 2 degrees C in air temperature reduced annual snow water equivalent in the range of 1 to 7%. Changes in precipitation caused proportional changes in snow water equivalent, It is found that annual snowmelt runoff, glacier melt runoff and total streamflow increase linearly with changes in temperature (1-3 degrees C), but the most prominent effect of increase in temperature has been noticed on glacier melt runoff for this high attitude basin. For example, an increase of 2 degrees C in air temperature has enhanced annual snowmelt runoff, glacier melt runoff and total streamflow in the range of 4-18%, 33-38% and 6-12% respectively. The effect of change in precipitation (P-10 to P+10%) suggests a linear increase in snowmelt runoff and total streamflow, while, in general, glacier melt runoff is inversely related to changes in precipitation. Snowmelt runoff is found more sensitive than glacier melt runoff to changes in precipitation (P-10 to P+10%). Under a warmer climate scenario, snowmelt runoff and glacier melt runoff cause an earlier response of total streamflow and a change in flow distribution. The seasonal analysis of total streamflow indicates that an increase in air temperature produces an increase in the pre-monsoon season followed by an increase in the monsoon season. implications of such seasonal changes are also briefly discussed. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.",Impact assessment of climate change on the hydrological response of a snow and glacier melt runoff dominated Himalayan river,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+188912,"The relationship between local and regional diversity was tested by regressing local community richness against regional species diversity for three taxa, birds, butterflies and mammals, in subtropical forest. The quadratic model best fits the relationship between local and regional diversity for birds. Local bird species richness is theoretically independent of the size of the regional pool of species and may represent saturated communities. A linear model best describes the relationship for mammals and butterflies. For mammals, the slope is shallow (0.264) and regional richness overestimates local species richness, suggesting communities are undersaturated. Extinction filtering may explain this pattern. Past climatic changes have filtered out many mammalian species, these changes have been too recent for autochthanous speciation, and the relatively low vagility of mammals has prevented extensive recolonisation. Differences in the nature of the diversity relationship between taxa are as much due to independent evolutionary histories as to differences in vagility and colonising potential. A pervasive role is suggested for regional biogeographic processes in the development of faunal assemblage structure. Large-scale processes are not considered in current conservation plans. We encourage the shift of conservation emphasis from local ecological processes and species interactions, to whole communities and consideration of regional processes.","The relationship between local and regional diversity of indigenous forest fauna in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2357345,"In the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), pocilloporids represent a key component of coral communities that develop under very limited environmental conditions. The objective of this study was to understand how climate change, in particular the increases in ocean temperature and acidification, could influence the distribution of these coral species. Ecological niche models were used to evaluate possible changes in the geographic distribution of 9 pocilloporid species, based on predictions of increasing temperature and decreasing pH under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 by 2050. The projections, elaborated using the Maxent algorithm, show that the trend was towards the conservation of species' distribution areas in the RCP 2.6 scenario, while the favorable area increased for most species in the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. By 2050, the optimal conditions for the presence of corals will be located at high latitudes and towards the equator. Finally, regions currently considered marginal for reef development are expected to persist and expand under future climate projections. These results have important implications for the future management and conservation of marginal reefs under a changing climate.",Potential changes in the distribution of the genus Pocillopora (Anthozoa: Scleractinia) in the Eastern Tropical Pacific under climate change scenarios,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+425270,"We review seven Arctic and four subarctic marine mammal species, their habitat requirements, and evidence for biological and demographic responses to climate change. We then describe a pan-Arctic quantitative index of species sensitivity to climate change based on population size, geographic range, habitat specificity, diet diversity, migration, site fidelity, sensitivity to changes in sea ice, sensitivity to changes in the trophic web, and maximum population growth potential (R-max). The index suggests three types of sensitivity based on: (1) narrowness of distribution and specialization in feeding, (2) seasonal dependence on ice, and (3) reliance on sea ice as a structure for access to prey and predator avoidance. Based on the index, the hooded seal, the polar bear, and the narwhal appear to be the three most sensitive Arctic marine mammal species, primarily due to reliance on sea ice and specialized feeding. The least sensitive species were the ringed seal and bearded seal, primarily due to large circumpolar distributions, large population sizes, and flexible habitat requirements. The index provides an objective framework for ranking species and focusing future research on the effects of climate change on Arctic marine mammals. Finally, we distinguish between highly sensitive species and good indicator species and discuss regional variation and species-specific ecology that confounds Arctic-wide generalization regarding the effects of climate change.",Quantifying the sensitivity of arctic marine mammals to climate-induced habitat change,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1279200,"The high Arctic is the fastest warming region on Earth, evidenced by extreme near-surface temperature increase in non-summer seasons, recent rapid sea ice decline and permafrost melting since the early 1990' s. Understanding the impact of climate change on the sensitive Arctic ecosystem to climate change has so far been hampered by the lack of time-constrained, high-resolution records and by implicit climate data analyses. Here, we show evidence of sharp growth in freshwater green algae as well as distinct diatom assemblage changes since similar to 1995, retrieved from a high-Arctic (80 degrees N) lake sediment record on Barentsoya (Svalbard). The proxy record approaches an annual to biennial resolution. Combining remote sensing and in-situ climate data, we show that this ecological change is concurrent with, and is likely driven by, the atmospheric warming and a sharp decrease in the length of the sea ice covered period in the region, and throughout the Arctic. Moreover, this research demonstrates the value of palaeoclimate records in pristine environments for supporting and extending instrumental records. Our results reinforce and extend observations from other sites that the high Arctic has already undergone rapid ecological changes in response to on-going climate change, and will continue to do so in the future.",Recent climate warming drives ecological change in a remote high-Arctic lake,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+615289,"In our study of climate change discourse in the Mekong River Commission (MRC) over the past decade, we find that climate change policy strategies are framed as science-based actions. Scale is largely expressed in terms of short-term, immediate temporal horizons that are human-dominated and regionally based. Further, we uncover a broadening of climate change discourse across multiple scales to incorporate justice, integrated water resource management (IWRM), development, and security frames. These patterns not only reflect trends in the larger global water governance and climate change discourse and reinforce historic patterns in the Mekong River Basin, but they also signal more strategic efforts by the MRC and member states to attract donor support. In our examination of links between discourse and MRC climate change action, we argue that the MRC's climate change actions narrowly reflect the production of studies and project scoping rather than real adaptive actions in the basin. We examine official documents of the MRC over the past decade to better understand how the discourse around climate change is framed and to what extent the discourse is linked to climate change actions.",Climate Change and Transboundary Waters: A Study of Discourse in the Mekong River Commission,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+13585,"One expected response to climate warming in the Arctic is an increase in the abundance and extent of shrubs in tundra areas. Repeat photography shows that there has been an increase in shrub cover over the past 50 years in northern Alaska. Using 202 pairs of old and new oblique aerial photographs, we have found that across this region spanning 620 km east to west and 350 km north to south, alder, willow, and dwarf birch have been increasing, with the change most easily detected on hill slopes and valley bottoms. Plot and remote sensing studies from the same region using the normalized difference vegetation index are consistent with the photographic results and indicate that the smaller shrubs between valleys are also increasing. In Canada, Scandinavia, and parts of Russia, there is both plot and remote sensing evidence for shrub expansion. Combined with the Alaskan results, the evidence suggests that a pan-Arctic vegetation transition is underway. If continued, this transition will alter the fundamental architecture and function of this ecosystem with important ramifications for the climate, the biota, and humans.",The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan-Arctic,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3281733,This study assessed how changes in terms of temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in water availability and droughts in an area in a developing country with environmental interest. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on water resources of the Guajoyo River Basin in El Salvador. El Salvador is in one of the most vulnerable regions in Latin America to the effects of climate change. The predicted future climate change by two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and five general circulation models (GCMs) were considered. A statistical analysis was performed to identify which GCM was better in terms of goodness of fit to variation in means and standard deviations of the historical series. A significant decreasing trend in precipitation and a significant increase in annual average temperatures were projected by the middle and the end of the twenty-first century. The results indicated a decreasing trend of the amount of water available and more severe droughts for future climate scenarios with respect to the base period (1975-2004). These findings will provide local water management authorities useful information in the face of climate change to help decision making.,Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+443453,"Nicaragua suffers from a severe institutional and geographic vulnerability to natural disasters, which has been further intensified in the past decade due to the effects of global warming. In October 1998, Hurricane Mitch had a severe impact on Nicaragua's economic and environmental development. Although Nicaragua has instituted many economic policies at the request of international lending institutions, the positive implications of these programs were reversed by the impact of the storm. A more sustainable development program must include social and environmental factors as well as economic measures to reduce this risk and move the Nicaraguan economy forward. Integrated efforts among the Nicaraguan government, international lending institutions, and international and local nongovernment organizations are needed to create sustainable development policy that will reduce vulnerability to future storms like Hurricane Mitch.",Sustainable development versus economic growth: A case study on natural disaster in Nicaragua,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3959166,"We investigated changes in distribution and terrain use of calving barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) with increasing density of roads in the Kuparuk Development Area, an oil-field region near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. In June of 1987-1992, caribou density, as determined by aerial surveys, was inversely related to road density, declining by 63% at &gt;0.0-0.3 km road/km2 and by 86% at &gt;0.6-0.9 km road/km2. The latter road density virtually excluded cow-calf pairs. Effects of avoidance were most apparent in preferred rugged terrain, comprising important habitats for foraging during the calving period. Our results show that (i) females and calves are far more sensitive to surface development than adult males and yearlings, (ii) the greatest incremental impacts are attributable to initial construction of roads and related facilities, and (iii) the extent of avoidance greatly exceeds the physical 'footprint' of an oil-field complex. A disproportionate reduction in use of foraging habitats within the Kuparuk Development Area, combined with decreasing tolerance of the expanding industrial complex, may explain the recent displacement of some calving activity to areas farther inland, and, in part, lower fecundity. Possible consequences include heightened competition for forage, increased risk of predation, and lower productivity of the herd.",Cumulative impacts of an evolving oil-field complex on the distribution of calving caribou,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+254824,"For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.",State of the Climate in 2012,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1290384,"Elevated temperature and water deficit are the major abiotic factors restricting plant growth. While in nature these two stresses often occur at the same time; little is known about their combined effect on plants. Therefore, the main objective of the current study was to observe the effect of these two stresses on phenology, dry matter and seed yield in soybean. Two soybean genotypes JS 97-52 and EC 538828 were grown under green-house conditions which were maintained at different day/night temperatures of 30/22, 34/24, 38/26 and 42/28 A degrees C with an average temperature of 26, 29, 32 and 35 A degrees C, respectively. At each temperature, pots were divided into three sets, one set was unstressed while second and third set were subjected to water stress at vegetative and reproductive stage, respectively. As compared to 30/22 A degrees C increase in temperature to 34/24 A degrees C caused a marginal decline in leaf area, seed weight, total biomass, pods/pl, seeds/pl, harvest index, seeds/pod and 100 seed weight. The decline was of higher magnitude at 38/26 and 42/28 A degrees C. Water stress imposed at two growth stages also significantly affected dry matter and yield. The highest average seed yield (10.9 g/pl) was observed at 30/22 A degrees C, which was significantly reduced by 19, 42 and 64% at 34/24, 38/24 and 42/28 A degrees C, respectively. Similarly, compared to unstressed plants (11.3 g/pl) there was 28 and 74% reduction in yield in plants stressed at vegetative and reproductive stage. Thus, both temperature and water stress affected the growth and yield but the effect was more severe when water stress was imposed at higher temperatures. JS 97-52 was more affected by temperature and water stress as compared to EC 538828. Though drought is the only abiotic factor that is known to affect the water status of plants, but the severity of the effect is highly dependent on prevailing temperature.",Impact of combined stress of high temperature and water deficit on growth and seed yield of soybean,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3924909,"Coccidioidomycosis is one of three dimorphic endemic mycoses recognized in North America. Over the past decade, the disease has been resurgent, particularly in the southwest United States. With this increase in incidence have come new observations and insights and re-examination of past issues. This article explores some of these areas by focusing principally on recent publications that are of importance.",Coccidioidomycosis: A Review of Recent Advances,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2269745,"Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow is crucial to regional water resource management. In recent years, significant decreases in streamflow have emerged in the Yellow River basin. The Jinghe River Basin (JRB), a tributary in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, has experienced dramatic land use changes over the past decades. At the same time, the climate has also shown a significant change. The annual streamflow exhibits an apparent decreasing trend in the JRB. In this study, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test is employed to detect the trend and breakpoint. The effects of climate variability and human activities are assessed quantitatively using the climate elasticity method and the hydrological model. The results showed that annual streamflow in the JRB decreased significantly (P<0.05) from 1956 to 2012 and that an abrupt change occurred in 1997. The annual precipitation presents a slightly decreasing trend, whereas the annual mean temperature and potential evapotranspiration show an upward trend. The results of quantitative assessment indicated that climate variability was responsible for 44.0% of the decrease in streamflow, whereas the hydrological modeling method indicated a value of 48.8%. The annual amount of water diversion from the Jinghe River increased, accounting for 20.5% of the decrease in streamflow from 1997 to 2010. Moreover, the land use and land cover change contributed to 30.7-35.5% of the decrease in streamflow. All human activities contributed to 51.2-56.0% of the decrease in streamflow. Therefore, the effect of human activities played a dominant role in the decrease in streamflow in the JRB.",Impacts of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Runoff: A Case Study in the Jinghe River Basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3917019,"Copper and nickel nanoparticles are supersonically sprayed onto a silicon wafer to install a low-resistance, high-performance, and cost-competitive front electrode onto a crystalline silicon solar cell. Impact phenomena and the deposition processes of both single and multiple particles were simulated and the computational results were compared against experimental data. Jet formation and local sintering at the particle-to-substrate interface were observed due to adiabatic shear instabilities. Local temperatures increased with impact velocity and estimates of these temperatures were made with a simple energy balance. Multi-particle simulations reveals the processes of thin-film growth; particles are bonded through interfacial sintering that locks the particles into a film. Film plastic strains were highest at the interface and increase risks for delamination. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Thin film metallization by supersonic spraying of copper and nickel nanoparticles on a silicon substrate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3985456,"Tumkur Taluk is located in the southeastern corner of Karnataka state between 13° 06'30'' to 13° 31' 00'' North latitude and 76° 59' 00'' to 77° 19' 00'' East Longitude. The Taluk spreads over an area of 1043 sq.km falling within the semiarid region and frequently facing water scarcity as well as quality problems. The major sources of employment are agriculture, horticulture and animal husbandry, engaging almost 80% of the workforce. Water samples are collected from 269 stations during pre-monsoon and 279 locations during post-monsoon of the year 2006, and were subjected to analysis for chemical characteristics. The type of water that predominates in the study area is Ca-Mg-HCO3 type during both preand post-monsoon seasons of the year 2006, based on hydro-chemical facies. Besides, suitability of water for irrigation is evaluated based on sodium adsorption ratio, residual sodium carbonate, sodium percent, salinity hazard and USSL diagram. © 2008 MDPI. All rights reserved.","Hydrochemical analysis and evaluation of groundwater quality in Tumkur Taluk, Karnataka State, India",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1520101,"This paper examines the causal relationship between climate shocks and collective violence in India using annual data over the period 1954-2006. We use the ARDL bounds testing approach to deal with problems of autocorrelation and non-stationarity of key variables. Rather than rainfall, we find that it is maximum temperature that has long and short run effects on collective violence, with unidirectional causality from temperature shocks to riots. A one standard deviation increase in maximum temperature over the long run average increases the number of riots by 55 per cent. Return to long run equilibrium after a temperature shock takes approximately 15years. The insignificance of rainfall holds whether we consider rainfall levels or rainfall growth. Given the absence of long run relationships between income levels /growth and riots, it is unlikely that the income channel is the one through which climate affects riots in India. Instead, the evidence suggests a psychological channel through which temperature affects riots in India, with hotter temperatures being associated with increased levels of aggression.",Estimating the Effects of Climate Shocks on Collective Violence: ARDL Evidence from India,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1385243,"Documentary film has historically been used as a medium of mass education on issues of social import. Although initially employed in South Africa for colonial propaganda, under apartheid the medium was used both to expose and resist state oppression. When the HIV/AIDS pandemic began in the 1980s, western film-makers harnessed the documentary format in order to foster awareness and challenge misinformation about the disease. This was also the case in South Africa, which saw the construction and perpetuation of numerous harmful myths about HIV/AIDS in tandem with rapidly increasing rates of transmission from the early 1990s. While government ineptitude meant that public education about the disease was severely lacking until the closing years of the century, numerous films were produced, often with corporate sponsorship, in order to educate the public about modes of transmission, prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS. This article analyses the content and meaning of these films, which provide important insights into the historical development of social perceptions of the disease. Born of the racially polarised and politically volatile climate of the 1990s, prejudicial and stigmatising images were presented in many of the documentaries under review. Racism and homophobia were particularly evident. Their verbal and visual depiction is discussed in the first section of this article. The responses of successive South African governments to the pandemic, alongside its evaluation in the documentaries, is the subject of the second section. Lastly, the portrayal of gender in these films is explored, with particular attention to the themes of female vulnerability and male recalcitrance. The article concludes with some general observations about the positive and negative aspects of the documentaries, their impact on public perceptions of HIV/AIDS in South Africa, and the discourse that currently dominates HIV documentary films and programmes there","HIV/AIDS in South African documentary film, c. 1990-2000",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1301047,"One of the most important anthropogenic influences on climate is land use change (LUC). In particular, the Amazon (AMZ) basin is a highly vulnerable area to climate change due to substantial modifications of the hydroclimatology of the region expected as a result of LUC. However, both the magnitude of these changes and the physical process underlying this scenario are still uncertain. This work aims to analyze the simulated Amazon deforestation and its impacts on local mean climate. We used the Common Land Model (CLM) version 4.5 coupled with the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) South America domain. We performed one simulation with the RegCM4 default land cover map (CTRL) and one simulation under a scenario of deforestation (LUC), i.e., replacing broadleaf evergreen trees with C-3 grass over the Amazon basin. Both simulations were driven by ERA Interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2009. The climate change signal due to AMZ deforestation was evaluated by comparing the climatology of CTRL with LUC. Concerning the temperature, the deforested areas are about 2 degrees C warmer compared to the CTRL experiment, which contributes to decrease the surface pressure. Higher air temperature is associated with a decrease of the latent heat flux and an increase of the sensible heat flux over the deforested areas. AMZ deforestation induces a dipole pattern response in the precipitation over the region: a reduction over the west (about 7.9%) and an increase over the east (about 8.3%). Analyzing the water balance in the atmospheric column over the AMZ basin, the results show that under the deforestation scenario the land surface processes play an important role and drive the precipitation in the western AMZ; on the other hand, on the east side, the large scale circulation drives the precipitation change signal. Dipole patterns over scenarios of deforestation in the Amazon was also found by other authors, but the precipitation decrease on the west side was never fully explained. Using budget equations, this work highlights the physical processes that control the climate in the Amazon basin under a deforestation scenario.",Land Use Change over the Amazon Forest and Its Impact on the Local Climate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2366382,"A survey of species belonging to the family Mysidae, conducted in June 2007 in fresh- to brackish waters of eastern France, revealed a recent range extension of the invasive Ponto-Caspian species Hemimysis anomala to the Moselle, SaA ' ne, and RhA ' ne rivers. In the estuary of the Grand RhA ' ne it reached for the first time the Mediterranean coast. The network of navigation canals in NE France was likely a key element of its north to south pathway starting from the Rhine River. Important range extensions were also noted for Limnomysis benedeni in this network and in the Moselle River. The euryhaline species Neomysis integer, endemic in coastal waters of the NE Atlantic, was found in the RhA ' ne delta, thus confirming previous very rare records in the 1930-1950s from the Mediterranean coast of France. Invasion mechanisms and pathways, expansion potential, and establishment conditions of the species are discussed.","Reappraisal and range extension of non-indigenous Mysidae (Crustacea, Mysida) in continental and coastal waters of eastern France",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+443234,"North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river-specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate-driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations.",Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+235704,"We use high quality climate data from ground meteorological stations in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and robust drought indices to confirm that drought severity has increased in the past five decades, as a consequence of greater atmospheric evaporative demand resulting from temperature rise. Increased drought severity is independent of the model used to quantify the reference evapotranspiration. We have also focused on drought impacts to drought-sensitive systems, such as river discharge, by analyzing streamflow data for 287 rivers in the IP, and found that hydrological drought frequency and severity have also increased in the past five decades in natural, regulated and highly regulated basins. Recent positive trend in the atmospheric water demand has had a direct influence on the temporal evolution of streamflows, clearly identified during the warm season, in which higher evapotranspiration rates are recorded. This pattern of increase in evaporative demand and greater drought severity is probably applicable to other semiarid regions of the world, including other Mediterranean areas, the Sahel, southern Australia and South Africa, and can be expected to increasingly compromise water supplies and cause political, social and economic tensions among regions in the near future.",Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+109193,"Eighteen years of seasonal 10-member ensemble simulations have been performed with observed sea surface temperature (SST) to assess the ability of dynamical models to predict seasonal-interannual climate variations during boreal summer. In addition, test cases have been designed to assess the role in climate trends, predictability of land initial conditions, systematic errors of precipitation and radiation fluxes at the land surface, and increasing CO2. The model reproduces a global warming trend in surface temperature similar to that observed. This appears to be attributable to the influence of SST. However, surface flux replacement and atmospheric initialization can reduce the SST-driven trend even while improving the spatial pattern of surface air temperature. The results also show that land surface interaction has an effect both on surface temperature and the higher levels of the troposphere. However, realistically increasing CO2 concentrations have little impact in these seasonal simulations.",Pattern and trend analysis of temperature in a set of seasonal ensemble simulations,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3302457,"This study investigates the sensitivity of oceanic and atmospheric response in the extra-tropics, especially in the North Pacific, to the position of equatorial El Nino-like heating within a slab-ocean climate model. In a suite of numerical experiments, we impose an idealized equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Pacific and systematically vary its longitudinal position along the equator to mimic different ""flavors"" of El Nino. We find that regardless of the forcing location, the induced SST pattern closely resembles a positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation with a characteristic warming along the North American coast as part of an arc-shaped pattern, accompanied by wind anomalies around the Aleutian low. However, the extent and magnitude of the coastal warming vary nonmonotonically when the forcing shifts westward along the equator. The strongest response is found when the equatorial forcing is located in the central Pacific close to the Dateline. In contrast, precipitation response over Southern California is strongest for an eastern Pacific warming centered at 150 degrees W, even though its magnitude is highly uncertain since the boundary between dry and wet precipitation anomalies passes through this region. We repeat the experiments for cold (i.e. La Nina-like) anomalies and observe a significant asymmetry in the SST and atmospheric response between the warm and cold cases. Finally, our experiments suggest that tropical heating (or cooling) over the Western Pacific warm pool generates the largest tropical rainfall response and hence the largest global-mean SST anomaly.",North Pacific temperature and precipitation response to El Nino-like equatorial heating: sensitivity to forcing location,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+813167,"This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of population in New Zealand, focusing on the effects of climate on internal migration dynamics. Specifically, a gravity modelling framework is first used to identify climate variables that have statistically significant associations with internal migration. The gravity model is then embedded within a population projection model to evaluate the effect of climate scenarios on regional populations. Of the climate variables, only surface radiation in the origin exhibits a significant association with internal migration. Including this variable in the population projection model makes a small difference to the regional population distribution, and the difference between different climate scenarios is negligible. Overall, the results suggest that, while statistically significant, climate change in the form of changes in the distribution of the weather will have a negligible effect on the population distribution of New Zealand at the regional level. These null results probably reflect the high capacity for adaptation to climate change available to a developed country.","Climate change, internal migration, and the future spatial distribution of population: a case study of New Zealand",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1303450,"Projections of Arctic sea ice through the end of the twenty-first century indicate the likelihood of a strong reduction in ice area and thickness in all seasons, leading to a substantial thermodynamic influence on the overlying atmosphere. This is likely to have an effect on winds over the Arctic basin because of changes in atmospheric stability, surface roughness, and/or baroclinicity. Here we identify patterns of wind changes in all seasons across the Arctic and their likely causal mechanisms, particularly those associated with sea ice loss. Output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM-LE) was analyzed for the recent past (primarily 1971-2000) and future (2071-2100). Mean near-surface wind speeds over the Arctic Ocean are projected to increase by late century in all seasons but especially during autumn and winter, when they strengthen by up to 50% locally. The most extreme wind speeds in the 95th percentile change even more, increasing in frequency by up to 100%. The strengthened winds are closely linked to decreasing surface roughness and lower-tropospheric stability resulting from the loss of sea ice cover and consequent surface warming (exceeding 20 degrees C warmer in the central Arctic in autumn and winter), as well as local changes in the storm track. The implications of stronger future winds include increased coastal and navigational hazards. Our findings suggest that increasing winds, along with reduction of sea ice, rising sea level, and thawing permafrost, represent another important contributor to the growing problem of Arctic coastal erosion.",Diminishing Arctic Sea Ice Promotes Stronger Surface Wind,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1498190,"Background: Depressive symptoms are potential outcomes of poorly functioning work environments. Such symptoms are frequent and cause considerable suffering for the employees as well as financial loss for the employers. Accordingly good prospective studies of psychosocial working conditions and depressive symptoms are valuable. Scientific reviews of such studies have pointed at methodological difficulties but still established a few job risk factors. Those reviews were published some years ago. There is need for an updated systematic review using the GRADE system. In addition, gender related questions have been insufficiently reviewed. Method: Inclusion criteria for the studies published 1990 to June 2013: 1. European and English speaking countries. 2. Quantified results describing the relationship between exposure (psychosocial or physical/chemical) and outcome (standardized questionnaire assessment of depressive symptoms or interview-based clinical depression). 3. Prospective or comparable case-control design with at least 100 participants. 4. Assessments of exposure (working conditions) and outcome at baseline and outcome (depressive symptoms) once again after follow-up 1-5 years later. 5. Adjustment for age and adjustment or stratification for gender. Studies filling inclusion criteria were subjected to assessment of 1.) relevance and 2.) quality using predefined criteria. Systematic review of the evidence was made using the GRADE system. When applicable, meta-analysis of the magnitude of associations was made. Consistency of findings was examined for a number of possible confounders and publication bias was discussed. Results: Fifty-nine articles of high or medium high scientific quality were included. Moderately strong evidence (grade three out of four) was found for job strain (high psychological demands and low decision latitude), low decision latitude and bullying having significant impact on development of depressive symptoms. Limited evidence (grade two) was shown for psychological demands, effort reward imbalance, low support, unfavorable social climate, lack of work justice, conflicts, limited skill discretion, job insecurity and long working hours. There was no differential gender effect of adverse job conditions on depressive symptoms Conclusion: There is substantial empirical evidence that employees, both men and women, who report lack of decision latitude, job strain and bullying, will experience increasing depressive symptoms over time. These conditions are amenable to organizational interventions.",A systematic review including meta-analysis of work environment and depressive symptoms,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+359025,"The analyses of low-resolution models simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 kyr BP) climate have revealed a large discrepancy between all the models and pollen-based palaeoclimatic reconstructions. In general, the models are too warm relative to the observations, especially in winter, where the difference is of the order of 10 degrees C over western Europe. One of the causes of this discrepancy may be related to the low spatial resolution of these models. To assess the impact of using high-resolution models on simulated climate sensitivity, we use three approaches to obtain high-resolution climate simulations over Europe: first art atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a stretched grid over Europe, second a homogeneous T106 AGCM (high resolution everywhere on the globe) and last a limited area model (LAM) nested in a low-resolution AGCM. With all three methods, we have performed simulations of the European climate for present and LGM conditions, according to the experimental design recommended by the Palaeoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Model results have been compared with updated pollen-based palaeoclimatic indicators for temperature and precipitation that were initially developed in PMIP. For each model, a low-resolution global run was also performed. As expected, the low-resolution simulations underestimate the large cooling indicated by pollen data, especially in winter, despite revised slightly warmer reconstructions of the temperatures of the coldest month, and show results in the range of those obtained in PMIP with similar models. The two high-resolution AGCMs do not improve the temperature field and cannot account for the discrepancy between model results and data, especially in winter. However, they are able to reproduce trends in precipitation more closely than their low-resolution counterparts do, but the simulated climates are still not as arid as depicted by the data. Conversely, the LAM temperature results compare well with climate reconstructions in winter but the simulated hydrological cycle is not consistent with the data. Finally, these results are discussed in regard of other possible causes for discrepancies between models and palaeoclimatic reconstructions for the LGM European climate.",High-resolution simulations of the last glacial maximum climate over Europe: a solution to discrepancies with continental palaeoclimatic reconstructions?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1789634,"It is obvious fact that water resource is very important for eco-environment and sustainable development of arid area. Climate change threatens water resource availability through affecting components of hydrological cycle. It also has an impact on the safety and quality of social and natural environment through an increase of floods, droughts and erosions, and a decrease of water quality and ecosystem diversity. However, the major purpose of this paper is to discuss the impact of climate change on surface runoff for Kenya Oasis by analyzing the characteristics of changing temperature and precipitation, as well as that of hydrological variables, such as runoff evaporation, glacier and snow which is responding to regional climate change with various statistical methods. The results show that both of temperature and precipitation of the region have been increasing in the last 50 years, the hydrological processes of Kenya river had altered with the changing climate, the glacier and snow accelerated in melting responding to the climate change.","Impacts of Recent Climate Change on Runoff of Kenya River South of Xinjiang, Northwest China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+3286673,"The Greater Horn of Africa region increasingly experiences high risk of water scarcity. A combination of frequent droughts, rapid population growth and rising urbanisation has reduced streamflow and intensified water abstraction, causing water and food shortages. Estimates of future streamflow changes in the region have so far been highly uncertain and evaluations using ground-based measurements are still limited. Here, future streamflow changes are estimated using a distributed hydrological model forced with an ensemble of high-resolution climate simulations produced using the European community Earth-System Model v3.1. The simulated streamflow is evaluated using observed data from 29 stations from river basins across different climate zones in the region. Evaluation results show large sub-regional variations in the performance of simulated streamflow. The sign and magnitude of future streamflow changes vary between climate simulations and river basins, highlighting the uncertainties in the hydrologic projections. Overall, the streamflow projections indicate large (seasonal, long-term mean and extreme) streamflow decreases for all major rivers in Ethiopia and increases in the equatorial parts of the region at the end of the century. The ensemble mean shows a 10 to 25% decrease in the long-term mean flow in Ethiopia and a 10% increase in the equatorial part of the region in 2080s. Similarly, there is a substantial change in high flows in 2080s, with up to - 50% reduction in the northern and 50% increase in the equatorial parts of the region. These findings are critical because the rivers provide water supply to a rapidly changing socio-economy of the region.",Streamflow response to climate change in the Greater Horn of Africa,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+783459,"Using monthly streamflow data from the 1960-2000 period and annual streamflow data from the 20012014 period, and also meteorological data from the 1960 to 2014 period from 815 meteorological stations across China, the Budyko-based hydrothermal balance model was used to quantitatively evaluate the fractional contributions of climate change and human activities to streamflow changes in ten river basins across China. Particular importance was attached to human activities, such as population density and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and also water reservoirs in terms of their relationship with streamflow changes. Results indicated that: (1) streamflow changes of river basins in northern China were more sensitive to climate change than those of river basins in southern China. Based on the degree of sensitivity, the influencing factors to which streamflow changes are sensitive included: precipitation > human activities > relative humidity > solar radiation > maximum temperature > wind speed > minimum temperature. Hence, it can be argued that hydrological systems in northern China are more fragile and more sensitive to changing environment than those in southern China and hence water resources management in northern China is more challenging; (2) during 1980-2000, climate change tended to increase stream flow changes across China and have a dominant role in streamflow variation. However, climate change tends to decrease streamflow in river basins of northern China. Generally, human activities cause a decrease of streamflow across China; (3) In recent years such as a period of 2001-2014, human activities tend to have increasing or enhancing impacts on instream flow changes, and fractional contributions of climate change and human activities to streamflow changes are, respectively, 53.5% and 46.5%. Increasing human-induced impacts on streamflow changes have the potential to add more uncertainty in the management of water resources at different spatial and temporal scales. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Contribution of multiple climatic variables and human activities to streamflow changes across China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+326742,"We present a microlevel study to simultaneously investigate the effects of variations in temperature and precipitation along with sudden natural disasters to infer their relative influence on migration that is likely permanent. The study is made possible by the availability of household panel data from Indonesia with an exceptional tracking rate combined with frequent occurrence of natural disasters and significant climatic variations, thus providing a quasi-experiment to examine the influence of environment on migration. Using data on 7,185 households followed over 15 y, we analyze whole-household, province-to-province migration, which allows us to understand the effects of environmental factors on permanent moves that may differ from temporary migration. The results suggest that permanent migration is influenced by climatic variations, whereas episodic disasters tend to have much smaller or no impact on such migration. In particular, temperature has a nonlinear effect on migration such that above 25 degrees C, a rise in temperature is related to an increase in outmigration, potentially through its impact on economic conditions. We use these results to estimate the impact of projected temperature increases on future permanent migration. Though precipitation also has a similar nonlinear effect on migration, the effect is smaller than that of temperature, underscoring the importance of using an expanded set of climatic factors as predictors of migration. These findings on the minimal influence of natural disasters and precipitation on permanent moves supplement previous findings on the significant role of these variables in promoting temporary migration.",Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+477145,"In recent years, droughts with increasing severity and frequency have been experienced around the world due to climate change effects. Water planning and management during droughts needs to deal with water demand variability, uncertainties in streamflow prediction, conflicts over water resources allocation, and the absence of necessary emergency schemes in drought situations. Reservoirs could play an important role in drought mitigation; therefore, development of an algorithm for operation of reservoirs in drought periods could help to mitigate the drought impacts by reducing the expected water shortages. For this purpose, the probable drought's characteristics and their variations in response to factors such as climate change should be incorporated. This study aims at developing a contingency planning scheme for operation of reservoirs in drought periods using hedging rules with the objective of decreasing the maximum water deficit. The case study for evaluation of the performance of the proposed algorithm is the Sattarkhan reservoir in the Aharchay watershed, located in the northwestern part of Iran. The trend evaluations of the hydro-climatic variables show that the climate change has already affected streamflow in the region and has increased water scarcity and drought severity. To incorporate the climate change study in reservoir planning; streamflow should be simulated under climate change impacts. For this purpose, the climatic variables including temperature and precipitation in the future under climate change impacts are simulated using downscaled GCM (General Circulation Model) outputs to derive scenarios for possible future drought events. Then a hydrological model is developed to simulate the river streamflow, based on the downscaled data. The results show that the proposed methodology leads to less water deficit and decreases the drought damages in the study area.",Development of a Demand Driven Hydro-climatic Model for Drought Planning,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1440018,"A recent paper inferred that all seagrass in Cairns Harbour, tropical north-eastern Australia, had undergone 'complete and catastrophic loss' as a result of tropical cyclone Yasi in 2011. While we agree with the concern expressed, we would like to correct the suggestion that the declines were the result of a single climatic event and that all seagrass in Cairns Harbour were lost. Recent survey data and trend analysis from an on-ground monitoring program show that seagrasses in Cairns Harbour do remain, albeit at low levels, and the decline in seagrasses occurred over several years with cyclone Yasi having little additional impact. We have conducted annual on-ground surveys of seagrass distribution and the above-ground meadow biomass in Cairns Harbour and Trinity Inlet since 2001. This has shown a declining trend in biomass since a peak in 2004 and in area since it peaked in 2007. In 2012, seagrass area and above-ground biomass were significantly below the long-term (12 year) average but seagrass was still present. Declines were associated with regional impacts on coastal seagrasses from multiple years of above-average rainfall and severe storm and cyclone activity, similar to other nearby seagrass areas, and not as a result of a single event.","Declines of seagrasses in a tropical harbour, North Queensland, Australia, are not the result of a single event",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+552782,"Recent hydro-climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann-Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960-2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35x10(6)m(3)year(-1). Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+744677,"Investigating the relationships between climate extremes and yield can help understand how unfavorable climatic conditions affect crop production. In this study, spatiotemporal patterns of extreme climate events and their impact on wheat yield were investigated in the Tianshan Mountains region (TMR) using meteorological and agricultural data. The modified Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt test were employed to detect trends and abrupt changes in the climate patterns, and the first-differences technique and Pearson's correlation test were used to analyze the climate extremes-wheat yield relationships. The main results were as follows: (1) a significant warming and wetting tendency occurred in TMR during 1961-2013, with more stations manifesting larger trend magnitudes of extreme climate indices; (2) although three subregions also exhibited a consistent trend of temperature and precipitation, warming rates were the highest in the eastern TMR and wetting trends were the largest in the northern slope of TMR; (3) 15 stations showed significant correlations between wheat yield and extreme temperature or precipitation indices. In precipitation-sensitive regions, greater rainfall was beneficial to the yield. In temperature-sensitive regions, while an increase in higher temperatures and night warm extremes were unfavorable for the yield, a decrease in cold extremes could help increase the same.","Changes in climate extremes and their impact on wheat yield in Tianshan Mountains region, northwest China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+742114,"Precipitation and runoff are key elements in the hydrologic cycle because of their important roles in water supply, flood prevention, river restoration, and ecosystem management. Global climate change, widely accepted to be happening, is anticipated to have enormous consequences on future hydrologic patterns. Studies on the potential changes in global, regional, and local hydrologic patterns under global climate change scenarios have been an intense area of research in recent years. The present study contributes to this research topic through evaluation of design flood under climate change. The study utilizes a weather state-based, stochastic multivariate model as a conditional probability model for simulating the precipitation field. An important premise of this study is that large-scale climatic patterns serve as a major driver of persistent year-to-year changes in precipitation probabilities. Since uncertainty estimation in the study of climate change is needed to examine the reliability of the outcomes, this study also applies a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme to the widely used SAC-SMA (Sacramento soil moisture accounting) precipitation-runoff model. A case study is also performed with the Soyang Dam watershed in South Korea as the study basin. Finally, a comprehensive discussion on design flood under climate change is made.",Assessment of change in design flood frequency under climate change using a multivariate downscaling model and a precipitation-runoff model,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+656285,"Catchments dominated by meltwater runoff are sensitive to climate change as changes in precipitation and temperature inevitably affect the characteristics of glaciermelt/snowmelt, hydrologic circle and water resources. This study simulated the impact of climate change on the runoff generation and streamflow of Chu River Basin (CRB), a glacierized basin in Central Asia using the enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated and validated using the measured monthly streamflow data from three discharge gauge stations in CRB for the period 1961-1985 and was subsequently driven by downscaled future climate projections of five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under three radiative forcing scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). In this study, the period 1966-1995 was used as the baseline period, while 2016-2045 and 2066-2095 as the near-future and far-future period, respectively. As projected, the climate would become warmer and drier under all scenarios in the future, and the future climate would be characterized by larger seasonal and annual variations under higher RCP. A general decreasing trend was identified in the average annual runoff in glacier (-26.6% to -1.0%), snow (-21.4% to +1.1%) and streamflow (-27.7% to -6.6%) for most of the future scenario periods. The projected maximum streamflow in each of the two future scenarios occurred one month earlier than that in the baseline period because of the reduced streamflow in summer months. Results of this study are expected to arouse the serious concern about water resource availability in the headwater region of CRB under the continuously warming climate. Changes in simulated hydrologic outputs underscored the significance of lowering the uncertainties in temperature and precipitation projection.","Impact of climate change on the streamflow in the glacierized Chu River Basin, Central Asia",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+216830,"Trends in phenological phases associated with climate change are widely reported-yet attribution remains rare. Attribution research in biological systems is critical in assisting stakeholders to develop adaptation strategies, particularly if human factors may be exacerbating impacts(1). Detailed, quantified attribution helps to effectively target adaptation strategies, and counters recent tendencies to overattribute phenological trends to climate shifts(2). Wine grapes have been ripening earlier in Australia in recent years(3), often with undesirable impacts. Attribution analysis of detected trends in wine-grape maturity, using time series of up to 64 years in duration, indicates that two climate variables-warming and declines in soil water content-are driving a major portion of this ripening trend. Crop-yield reductions and evolving management practices have probably also contributed to earlier ripening. Potential adaptation options are identified, as some drivers of the trend to earlier maturity can be manipulated through directed management initiatives, such as managing soil moisture and crop yield.",Earlier wine-grape ripening driven by climatic warming and drying and management practices,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1297779,"Assessment of the influence of climate variables on drought characteristics is important for adaption to changing pattern of droughts due to climate change. The objective of this study is to assess the changing characteristics of droughts due to climate variability and change during two major cropping seasons (Rabi and Kharif) for the period 1901-2010 over the diverse climate of Pakistan. The gauge-based gridded precipitation and temperature data with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees is used for the reconstruction of droughts using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The temporal variations in droughts and their relationships with precipitation and temperature are assessed using a 50-year moving window with a 10-year time step. The annual maximum series (AMS) approach is used to estimate the return periods of seasonal droughts and the modified Mann-Kendal trend test is applied to assess the significance of trends in climate variables and drought index. The results showed that drought severity is increasing in the predominantly arid and semi-arid regions for both cropping seasons, while it is decreasing in western disturbance (WD) influenced high winter precipitation region during Rabi season. Temperature is found as the dominating factor for defining droughts in arid and semi-arid regions while the precipitation in WD influenced region. An increase in temperature in the range of 0.001 to 0.025 degrees C per year and almost no change in precipitation have caused decreases in Rabi SPEI in the range of -0.011 to -0.025 per year in the arid region. On the other hand, increases in precipitation in the range of 1.01-2.0 mm/year have caused increases in Kharif SPEI in WD influenced region in the range of 0.016-0.02 per year. However, rises in temperature in most part of the country has caused an increase in drought frequency in both seasons in the areas where droughts are less frequent. The results indicate that rising temperature due to global warming would increase drought severity and frequency in most part of the predominantly arid country.",Impacts of climate variability and change on seasonal drought characteristics of Pakistan,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+96577,"Climate changes may be influencing the breeding patterns of certain organisms. Effects oil breeding activities could eventually lead to significant changes in population structure that may be reflected in population declines of species that are especially sensitive, such as some amphibians. Thus, climate changes may have affected the timing of breeding in some European amphibian species. To further test whether amphibian reproductive cycles in temperate countries are responding to climate changes, we conducted all analysis of the breeding phenology of four species of North American anurans for which we have long-term data sets. Populations of at least two of these species have been declining, and it has been suggested that they and other amphibians may be especially sensitive to climate change, Our results suggest that climate change has not influenced the timing of breeding in amphibians in North America. At one site, in Oregon, a trend (non-significant) for western toads (Bufo boreas) to breed increasingly early was associated with increasing temperature, At four other sites, however, neither western toads nor Cascades frogs (Rana cascadae) showed statistically significant positive trends toward earlier breeding. At three of four of these sites, breeding time was associated with warmer temperatures. The spring peeper (Pseudacris crucifer) in Michigan did not show a statistically significant trend toward breeding earlier but did show a significant positive relationship between breeding time and temperature. Fouller's toad (Bufo fowleri) in eastern Canada did not show, a trend toward breeding earlier, and there was no positive relationship between breeding time and temperature. It did however, show a strong but statistically insignificant trend toward breeding later. The broad pattern emerging from available studies is that some temperate-zone anuran populations show a trend toward breeding earlier, whereas others do not. It is important to track the breeding patterns of amphibians with long-term data sets to morefully understand how we can manage threatened populations.",Amphibian breeding and climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+708459,"Understanding the effects of climate on the growth of trees is important to project the response of forests to climate change. Dendrochronological analysis offers a ""proxy"" source for the effects of climatic variation on tree growth at different spatial and temporal scales. To examine influences of temperature and precipitation on radial growth of Pinus pseudostrobus and Abies religiosa, this study combines measurements of radial growth patterns of forest trees in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) in central Mexico with temperature and precipitation variables from instrumental records. Dendrochronological samples were collected as cross sections and increment cores by using a chainsaw and increment borers, respectively. Total ring-width chronologies were developed for each site. Principal component analyses (PCA) were used to identify common temperature, precipitation and tree growth variation patterns. Correlation and response function analyses between chronologies and records of temperature and precipitation were used to evaluate the relation of climate variables on tree growth. The months during which tree growth was most strongly affected by precipitation were January, February and October from the previous year; only the temperature of September from the previous year affected the tree growth. In some chronologies, May's average monthly maximum temperature was negatively correlated with tree growth. PCA and a comparison of PCA factor scores of climatic variables and chronologies showed no significant differences between northern, central or southern portions of the MBBR. Apparently, tree growth in the MBBR is reduced in years of low January-May precipitation combined with high summer (September of the previous year) temperatures, a scenario which is likely to occur as a consequence of global climate change. (C) 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.","Climatic responses of Pinus pseudostrobus and Abies religiosa in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, Central Mexico",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+15879,"The 1958-2007 decline in March-August rainfall over southern Australia (south of 30A degrees S) is very closely related to an increase in surface atmospheric pressure over Australia. Sea surface temperatures around northern Australia are strongly correlated with southern Australian rainfall but the recent warming of the ocean should have led to increased rainfall rather than the observed rainfall decline. The relationships between the rainfall and indices of several modes of the atmosphere/ocean system are investigated to determine a cause of the rainfall decline. Indices of the modes that only use data remote from the Australian region are used to avoid the possibility that a relationship between the mode and Australian rainfall is simply reflecting the behaviour of ""local"" portions of the index. Thus a climate mode index that incorporates Australian pressure would, of course, be related to southern Australian rainfall, even if the remote parts of the mode were unrelated to Australian rainfall. Unless the remote contributions to the mode index were also related to Australian rainfall it seems physically unrealistic to consider that the mode, per se, was affecting Australian rainfall (rather than simply reflecting the influence of the local pressure changes). The rainfall decline does not appear to be explainable by a change in the behaviour of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (remote indices of this phenomenon do not exhibit a trend over this period) or the Indian Ocean Dipole (which is not strongly correlated with Australian rainfall on detrended data). The strong 1958-2007 trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) appears able to explain much of the rainfall decline since its year-to-year variations are correlated with year-to-year variations in southern Australian rainfall, and the sense of the correlation and the SAM trend would lead to a decline in rainfall (and an increase in pressure over Australia). The observed trend in SAM can reproduce over 70% of the observed rainfall trend. All these conclusions also apply to the rainfall declines in the southeast and southwest sub-regions.","Local and remote causes of the southern Australian autumn-winter rainfall decline, 1958-2007",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+60750,"The paper is concerned with identifying changes in the time series of water and sediment discharge of the Zhujiang (Pearl River), China. The gradual trend test (Mann-Kendall test), and abrupt change test (Pettitt test), have been employed on annual water discharge and sediment load series (from the 1950s-2004) at nine stations in the main channels and main tributaries of the Zhujiang. Both the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests indicate that water discharge at all stations in the Zhujiang Basin showed no significant trend or abrupt shift. Annual water discharges are mainly influenced by precipitation variability, while the construction of reservoirs/dams in the Zhujiang Basin had little influence on water discharge. Sediment load, however, showed significant decreasing trends at some stations in the main channel of the Xijiang and Dongjiang. More stations have seen significantly decreasing trends since the 1990s. The decreasing sediment load in the Zhujiang reflects the impacts of reservoir construction in the basin. In contrast, the Liujiang, the second largest tributary of the Xijiang, has experienced a significant upward shift of sediment load around 1991 likely caused by exacerbated rock desertification in the karst regions. The annual sediment load from the Zhujiang (excluding the delta region) to the estuary has declined from 80.4 x 10(6) t averaged for the period 1957-1995 to 54.0 x 10(6) t for the period 1996-2004. More specifically, the sediment load declined steadily since the early 1990s so that in 2004 it was about one-third of the mean level of pre-90s. Water discharge and sediment load of the Zhujiang would be more affected by human activities in the future with the further reservoir developments, especially the completion of the Datengxia hydroelectric project, and an intensification of the afforestation policy in the drainage basin. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Recent changes of water discharge and sediment load in the Zhujiang (Pearl River) Basin, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+600114,"BACKGROUND: The evidence and method are limited for the associations between mortality and temperature variability (TV) within or between days. OBJECTIVES: We developed a novel method to calculate TV and investigated TV-mortality associations using a large multicountry data set. METHODS: We collected daily data for temperature and mortality from 372 locations in 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, Moldova, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States). We calculated TV from the standard deviation of the minimum and maximum temperatures during the exposure days. Two-stage analyses were used to assess the relationship between TV and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression model allowing over-dispersion was used to estimate the community-specific TV-mortality relationship, after controlling for potential confounders. In the second stage, a meta-analysis was used to pool the effect estimates within each country. RESULTS: There was a significant association between TV and mortality in all countries, even after controlling for the effects of daily mean temperature. In stratified analyses, TV was still significantly associated with mortality in cold, hot, and moderate seasons. Mortality risks related to TV were higher in hot areas than in cold areas when using short TV exposures (0-1 days), whereas TV-related mortality risks were higher in moderate areas than in cold and hot areas when using longer TV exposures (0-7 days). CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that more attention should be paid to unstable weather conditions in order to protect health. These findings may have implications for developing public health policies to manage health risks of climate change.",Temperature Variability and Mortality: A Multi-Country Study,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+422930,"This study evaluates the effect of climate change on daily rainfall, especially on the mean number of wet days and the mean rainfall intensity. Assuming that the mechanism of daily rainfall occurrences follows the first-order Markov chain model, the possible changes in the transition probabilities are estimated by considering the climate change scenarios. Also, the change of the stationary probabilities of wet and dry day occurrences and finally the change in the number of wet days are derived for the comparison of current (1x CO2) and 2x CO2 conditions. As a result of this study, the increase or decrease in the mean number of wet days was found to be not enough to explain all of the change in monthly rainfall amounts, so rainfall intensity should also be modified. The application to the Seoul weather station in Korea shows that about 30% of the total change in monthly rainfall amount can be explained by the change in the number of wet days and the remaining 70% by the change in the rainfall intensity. That is, as an effect of climate change, the increase in the rainfall intensity could be more significant than the increase in the wet days and, thus, the risk of flood will be much highly increased.",Markov Chain Decomposition of Monthly Rainfall into Daily Rainfall: Evaluation of Climate Change Impact,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3322704,"Microbial induced carbonate precipitation (MICP) is relatively an innovative soil improvement technique, learnt from the bio-mediated geochemical reactions that naturally occur in the earth surface. During the MICP, CaCO3 is metabolically precipitated in soil pores, cement the particle contacts and improves the strength and stiffness of soil. Environment temperature is one of the most key factors that determines the efficiency MICP. The purpose of this study is to investigate the feasibility of stabilizing the slope soil of cold subarctic region (Hokkaido, Japan). The implication of MICP in cold subarctic zones remains as a major challenge, as the enzymatic performance of the bacteria typically declines during lower temperatures hence insufficient formation of CaCO3 in soil matrix. Therefore, as a potential approach, this study attempted to investigate the feasibility of using the bacteria which have been adapted to native cold climatic conditions. The objectives of this paper are evaluating (1) the effect of temperature in bacterial response, and (2) the effect of grain size distribution in cementation mechanism. The observations suggest that the enzyme activity of the bacteria is negligible at and above 30 degrees C, whereas it is significant at relatively lower temperatures. The comparison of treated soils suggests that the fine content in slope soil increased number of particle contacts, facilitated effective packing, and promoted the effectiveness of MICP compared to that of uniformly graded sands. Finally, the technical feasibility in slope soil stabilization was well demonstrated using model solidification test. The limitations in stabilizing the slope are also discussed in detail.",Feasibility study for slope soil stabilization by microbial induced carbonate precipitation (MICP) using indigenous bacteria isolated from cold subarctic region,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+468699,"The processes influencing the magnitude of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission from 1 year to the next require thorough investigation. The intensity of WNV transmission is related to the dynamics and interactions between the pathogen, vector, vertebrate hosts, and environment. Climatic variability is one process that can influence interannual disease transmission. South Africa has a long WNV and Sindbis virus (SINV) record where consistent climate and disease relationships can be identified. We relate climate conditions to historic mosquito infection rates. Next, we detect similar associations with reported human outbreaks dating back to 1941. Both concurrent summer precipitation and the change in summer precipitation from the previous to the current summer were strongly associated with WNV and SINV transmission and recorded human outbreaks. Each 100 mm interannual summer precipitation change increased WNV infection rates by 0.39 WNV-positive Culex univittatus/1000 tested Cx. univittatus. An improved understanding of biotic and abiotic disease transmission dynamics may help anticipate and mitigate future outbreaks.",Climatic Controls on West Nile Virus and Sindbis Virus Transmission and Outbreaks in South Africa,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+76648,The relationship between mortality and stressful weather is not only a complex health social and environmental Issue but also becomes an economical problem when considering livestock Future-climate scenarios suggest that higher global mean temperatures could result in marked changes in the frequency of extreme temperatures The relationship between high temperature and mortality is well known in people living in urban areas but it has been poorly investigated in livestock such as dairy cows The aim of this study was to quantify the relationship between heat and mortality from all causes among dairy cows in Italy We studied 6697 adult (>24 months) dairy cows that died during the summer in the 5-year period 2002-2006 in three Italian districts (Brescia Cuneo Rome) which were selected because of the high livestock production and the availability of weather data for these geographical areas A case-crossover design was applied using the temperature-humidity index (THI) as exposure of interest Pooled odds ratio (OR) of mortality at high exposure values versus low exposure values was estimated An exposure over the THI cutoff increased the risk of mortality by 1 6 times with a 4% increase in mortality for each THI degree increase above the threshold We found no effect modification for age-class herd size or breed but a certain degree of geographical heterogeneity was identified The increased dairy cow mortality highlighted in this study should be considered when adopting animal welfare and farm management measures This phenomenon can be prevented by adopting appropriate interventions to mitigate environmental thermal challenges (C) 2010 Elsevier BV All rights reserved,Heat-related mortality in dairy cattle A case crossover study,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+683373,"Mean summer water temperatures in the Fraser River (British Columbia, Canada) have increased by similar to 1.5 degrees C since the 1950s. In recent years, record high river temperatures during spawning migrations of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) have been associated with high mortality events, raising concerns about long-term viability of the numerous natal stocks faced with climate warming. In this study, the effect of freshwater thermal experience on spawning migration survival was estimated by fitting capture-recapture models to telemetry data collected for 1474 adults (captured in either the ocean or river between 2002 and 2007) from four Fraser River sockeye salmon stock-aggregates (Chilko, Quesnel, Stellako-Late Stuart and Adams). Survival of Adams sockeye salmon was the most impacted by warm temperatures encountered in the lower river, followed by that of Stellako-Late Stuart and Quesnel. In contrast, survival of Chilko fish was insensitive to the encountered river temperature. In all stocks, in-river survival of ocean-captured sockeye salmon was higher than that of river-captured fish and, generally, the difference was more pronounced under warm temperatures. The survival-temperature relationships for ocean-captured fish were used to predict historic (1961-1990) and future (2010-2099) survival under simulated lower river thermal experiences for the Quesnel, Stellako-Late Stuart and Adams stocks. A decrease of 9-16% in survival of all these stocks was predicted by the end of the century if the Fraser River continues to warm as expected. However, the decrease in future survival of Adams sockeye salmon would occur only if fish continue to enter the river abnormally early, towards warmer periods of the summer, as they have done since 1995. The survival estimates and predictions presented here are likely optimistic and emphasize the need to consider stock-specific responses to temperature and climate warming into fisheries management and conservation strategies.",Effects of river temperature and climate warming on stock-specific survival of adult migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka),1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+75713,"Future climate change is expected to vary between regions, with possible different effects on crop growth.  Various sites in Asia were selected to represent major rice growing environments.  Historic weather data of these sites were adapted to possible changes in temperature and in CO2 level, to mimic climate change.  Potential rice yields at present, and for the years 2020 and 2100 were calculated with a crop growth simulation model.  Simulated yields rose in low and middle temperature change scenarios, but decreased in the high temperature scenario.  Effects were stronger in the year 2100, when also regional differences became clear:  more than elsewhere, yields were affected by high temperatures between 10 and 35-degrees-N.  Water use efficiency decreased in the high temperature scenario irrespective of CO2 scenario, and increased otherwise.",POTENTIAL RICE YIELDS IN FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF ASIA,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+679079,"While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. This study describes a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vectorborne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species-specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, this study estimates mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location; however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, midsummer decreases in abundance may be offset by shorter extrinsic incubation periods, resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.",Projection of Climate Change Influences on US West Nile Virus Vectors,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1626875,"Population centres in low atoll islands have water supply problems that are amongst the most critical in the world. Fresh groundwater, the major source of water in many atolls, is extremely vulnerable to natural processes and human activities. Storm surges and over-extractions cause seawater intrusion, while human settlements and agriculture can pollute shallow groundwaters. Limited land areas restrict freshwater quantities, particularly in frequent ENSO-related droughts. Demand for freshwater is increasing and availability is extremely limited. At the core of many groundwater management problems are the traditional water ownership rights inherent in land tenure and the conflict between the requirements of urbanised societies and the traditional values and rights of subsistence communities living on groundwater reserves. Resource limitations and geographic isolation restrict the potential for increasing wealth through crop exports. Water governance reforms and the provision of knowledge to communities are critical. Regional water organisations, fostering self-support, are a key to developing island-adopted and owned solutions. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Challenges in freshwater management in low coral atolls,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1277759,"ContextDue to the spatial heterogeneity of the disturbance regimes and community assemblages along topoclimatic gradients, the response of forest ecosystem to climate change varies at the landscape scale.ObjectivesOur objective was to quantify the possible changes in forest ecosystems and the relative effects of climate warming and fire regime changes in different topographic positions.MethodsWe used a spatially explicit model (LANDIS PRO) combined with a gap model (LINKAGES) to predict the possible response of boreal larch forests to climate and fire regime changes, and examined how this response would vary in different topographic positions.ResultsThe result showed that the proportion of landscape occupied by broadleaf species increased under warming climate and frequent fires scenarios. Shifts in species composition were strongly influenced by both climate warming and more frequent fires, while changes in age structure were mainly controlled by shifts in fire regime. These responses varied in the different topographic positions, with forests in valley bottoms being most resilient to climate-fire changes and forests in uplands being more likely to shift their composition from larch-dominant to mixed forests. Such variation in the topographic response may be induced by the heterogeneities of the environmental conditions and fire regime.ConclusionsFire disturbance could alter the equilibrium of ecosystems and accelerate the response of forests to climate warming. These effects are largely modulated by topographic variations. Our findings suggest that it is imperative to consider topographic complexities when developing appropriate fire management policies for mitigating the effects of climate change.",Topographic variation in the climatic change response of a larch forest in Northeastern China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+694144,"Climate change is occurring and insects are responding. Current challenges for ecologists and managers are predicting how organisms will respond to continuing climate change and determining how to mitigate potential negative effects. In contrast to broad scale predictions for climate change involving the distribution of species, in this article we highlight the many ways in which local populations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly (Parnassius smintheus Doubleday) are predicted to respond to climate change. Using experimental and observational data collected over the past 15 years, we detail both direct and indirect effects. In addition, we identify limitations in our knowledge restricting the ability to predict how populations will respond to climate change. Some changes, such as warmer winter temperatures, may have beneficial effects; however, most of the effects of climate change will be detrimental. Variability in snow cover during the overwintering period and habitat loss due to forest encroachment have the largest potential negative effects.",An assessment of direct and indirect effects of climate change for populations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly (Parnassius smintheus Doubleday),1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+218950,"Many boreal forests grow in regions where climate is now warming rapidly. Changes in these vast, cold forests have the potential to affect global climate because they store huge amounts of carbon and because the relative abundances of their different tree species influence how much solar radiation reflects back to space. Both the carbon cycling and albedo of boreal forests are strongly affected by wildland fires, which in turn are closely controlled by summer climate. Here we use a forest disturbance model in both a retrospective and predictive manner to explore how the forests of Interior Alaska respond to changing climate. Results suggest that a widespread shift from coniferous to deciduous vegetation began around A.D. 1990 and will continue over the next several decades. This ecological regime shift is being driven by old, highly flammable spruce stands encountering a warmer climate conducive to larger and more frequent fires. Increased burning promotes the spread of early successional, deciduous species at the expense of spruce. These striking changes in the vegetation composition and fire regime are predicted to alter the biophysics of Alaska's forests. The ground will warm, and a surge of carbon emission is likely. Our modeling results support previous inferences that Alaska's boreal forest is now shifting to a new ecological state and that positive feedbacks to global warming will accompany this change.",Is Alaska's Boreal Forest Now Crossing a Major Ecological Threshold?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1320985,"The low-frequency response of the upper Parana River basin is investigated by means of singular spectral analysis (SSA) applied to precipitation rates and runoff contributions of different sub-basins, upstream of the Posadas gauging station. The temporal structure of Posadas discharges is characterized by a trend after 1970 and a modulated signal with a period of T approximate to 9 years that produces a maximum in amplitude around 1983. ENSO-range signals (T approximate to 3-5 years) contribute to fit the highest peaks in the streamflow series. Moderate changes in mean annual precipitation rates are reflected in large increases in mean runoff contributions for each subbasin. Changes in relative mean annual runoff responses before and after the 1970s, downstream of Sao Simao, cannot be only explained by increases in the corresponding mean annual precipitation rates. It is more probable that such changes arise as a consequence of some anthropogenic impact than a climatic one. In particular, the outstanding increase in runoff contribution, after 1970, for the drainage area between Itaipu and Jupia of around 96% is mainly responsible for a positive trend in Parana flow. From the detailed analysis of each Sub-catchment, we can observe that not all the signals present in precipitation are reflected in runoff contributions and vice versa. Copyright (c) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society.",Low-frequency response of the upper Parana basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+490042,"Temperature is an important environmental variable in shaping the distribution of species. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) has been identified as a climate-change-sensitive species as documented by the extirpation of a number of populations at the southern end of the species' range. Limited tolerance to warm temperatures has previously been reported, yet recent evidence suggests that pikas are able to live outside of cool habitats with the discovery of warmer, low-elevation pika populations, such as those found in the Bella Coola Valley in British Columbia. Here we characterize the temperatures experienced by pikas living along an elevation gradient at the northern end of their distribution. Additionally, we recorded temperatures both above and below the talus at one of our sites and the relationship between pika activity and temperature. Temperatures differed along the elevation gradient by up to 6 degrees C from low- to high-elevation sites. Below-talus temperatures were lower than above-talus temperatures at noon and during the afternoon, and were warmer than above temperatures in the morning and night, suggesting that talus has insulative properties that guard against extreme temperatures. Lastly, a negative relationship was observed between temperature and pika activity. We show that although at the northern end of pika distribution, ambient temperatures 1.5 m above the talus surface often exceeded the threshold for acute heat stress. Our results also suggest that behavioral thermoregulation or other adaptations may enable pikas to inhabit low-elevation habitat that was previously thought as inhospitable to pikas.",Variation in Habitat Characteristics of American Pikas along an Elevation Gradient at Their Northern Range Margin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1402069,"Little is known about the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection ill tropical and developing countries; the data currently available have been reviewed. In most studies, RSV was found to be the predominant viral cause of acute lower respiratory trace infections (ALRI) in childhood, being responsible for 27-96% of hospitalised cases (mean 65%) in which a virus was found. RSV infection is seasonal in most countries; outbreaks occur most frequently in the cold season in areas with temperate and Mediterranean climates and in the wet season in tropical countries with seasonal rainfall. The situation on islands and in areas of the inner tropics with perennial high rainfall is less clear-cut. The age group mainly affected by RSV in developing countries is children under 6 months of age (mean 39% of hospital patients with RSV). RSV-ALRI is slightly more common in boys than in girls. Very little information is available about the mortality of children infected with RSV, the frequency of bacterial co-infection, or the incidence of further wheezing after RSV. Further studies on RSV should address these questions in more detail. RSV is an important pathogen in young children in tropical and developing countries and a frequent cause of hospital admission. Prevention of RSV infection by vaccination would have a significant impact on the incidence of ALRI in children in developing countries.",Respiratory syncytial virus infection in tropical and developing countries,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1278694,"Productivity of marine fish stocks is known to be affected by environmental and ecological drivers, and global climate change is anticipated to alter recruitment success of many stocks. While the direct effects of environmental drivers on fish early life stage survival can be quantified experimentally, indirect effects in marine ecosystems and the role of adaptation are still highly uncertain. We developed an integrative model for the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the early life stages of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea, termed SCREI (Simulator of Cod Recruitment under Environmental Influences). Experimental results on temperature and CO2 effects on egg fertilization, egg and larval survival and development times are incorporated. Calibration using empirical time series of egg production, temperature, food and predator abundance reproduces age-0 recruitment over three decades. We project trajectories of recruitment success under different scenarios and quantify confidence limits based on variation in experiments. A publicly accessible web version of the SCREI model can be run under www.oceanchange.uni-bremen.de/SCREI. Severe reductions in average age-0 recruitment success of Barents Sea cod are projected under uncompensated warming and acidification toward the middle to end of this century. Although high population stochasticity was found, considerable rates of evolutionary adaptation to acidification and shifts in organismal thermal windows would be needed to buffer impacts on recruitment. While increases in food availability may mitigate short-term impacts, an increase in egg production achieved by stock management could provide more long-term safety for cod recruitment success. The SCREI model provides a novel integration of multiple driver effects in different life stages and enables an estimation of uncertainty associated with interindividual and ecological variation. The model thus helps to advance toward an improved empirical foundation for quantifying climate change impacts on marine fish recruitment, relevant for ecosystem-based assessments of marine systems under climate change.",Forecasting future recruitment success for Atlantic cod in the warming and acidifying Barents Sea,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+55759,"The 1999 ""flood of the century"" in eastern North Carolina was to date the most costly disaster in the state's history. Arguments put forth that the magnitude of the flood was increased to catastrophic proportions by development in the region's watersheds are evaluated by examining historical trends in several streamflow variables and the magnitude-frequency characteristics of the storm. Analysis of streamflow data in the Tar, Neuse, and Cape Fear river basins indicates that there have been no significant trends in the region that would signal an anthropogenic effect. Given the extreme nature of the precipitation, therefore, it is unlikely that human activities made this flood more severe than it otherwise would have been.",The 1999 flood of the century in eastern North Carolina: Extraordinary hydro-meteorological event or human-induced catastrophe?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2366121,"Seagrass ecosystems face widespread threat from reduced water quality, coastal development and poor land use. In recent decades, their distribution has declined rapidly, and in the British Isles, this loss is thought to have been extensive. Given increasing knowledge of how these ecosystems support fisheries production, the understanding of their potential rapid loss, and the difficulty in restoring them, it is vital we develop an understanding of the risks they are under, so that management actions can be developed accordingly. Developing an understanding of their environmental status and condition is therefore critical to their long-term management. This study provided, to our knowledge, the first examination of the environmental health of seagrass meadows around the British Isles. This study used a bioindicator approach and involved collecting data on seagrass density and morphology alongside analysis of leaf biochemistry. Our study provides, to the best of our knowledge, the first strong quantitative evidence that seagrass meadows of the British Isles are mostly in poor condition in comparison with global averages, with tissue nitrogen levels 75% higher than global values. Such poor status places their long-term resilience in doubt. Elemental nutrient concentrations and morphological change suggest conditions of excess nitrogen and probable low light, placing many of the meadows sampled in a perilous state, although others, situated away from human populations were perceived to be healthy. Although some sites were of a high environmental health, all sites were considered at risk from anthropogenic impacts, particularly poor water quality and boating-based disturbances. The findings of this study provide a warning of the need to take action, with respect to water quality and disturbance, to prevent the further loss and degradation of these systems across the British Isles.",The perilous state of seagrass in the British Isles,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1514802,"This study conducts cross-sectional analysis to investigate impact of climate change on livestock sector in Mongolia using data gathered from a household survey and aggregate soum (district) level data. The soum-level analysis reveals the marginal effect of precipitation has a positive effect on livestock/ha up to 26 mm/mo and thereafter a harmful effect. The marginal effect of warming on livestock/ha is not significant until annual temperatures exceed 0.4 degrees C whereupon warming is strictly harmful. The household-level analysis suggests warming will decrease earnings per animal while overall earnings per household increases with a small change in climate but declines with larger changes. However, the household data also suggests warming would increase the total value of livestock. The results of the different analyses are therefore conflicting suggesting one or more of the analyses are plagued by missing variables.",THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NOMADIC LIVESTOCK HUSBANDRY IN MONGOLIA,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3322070,"In the context of rapid warming, a better understanding of the spatially varying growth-climate responses of widely-distributed forests is essential for predicting the warming effects on trees, so as to guide the forest management. Here, we characterized the growth-climate relationships of the southern part of Asian boreal forests in northeast China at multiple levels to deduce how warming impacts tree growth. Specially, we aimed to distinguish climatic limitations to growth and clarify how local climate determines the response pattern. We established a tree-ring network, which includes 516 trees from 20 populations across the study area. We then correlated regional, population, and tree chronologies with climate data. In the north of the study area, radial growth responded positively to temperature before the growing season and precipitation during the growing season. In contrast, growth in the south responded positively to precipitation and negatively to temperature during the growing season. Thus, diverse growth patterns exist in response to climate. The extent to which growth was limited by climate varied along the latitudinal climate gradient. The north parts were limited by both frost and moisture, whereas the central-south parts were limited by moisture deficit induced by high temperature. The growth-climate response was quantified as the percentage of significant tree-level correlations. Through associating this quantitative index of each population with local climate, we confirmed the decisive role of local temperature in forming the spatial heterogeneity of response. We also confirmed that warming negatively affected tree growth across the study area. Our models predict that as warming continues, the trees threatened by high temperature in summer will increase by 45,5%-63.6% by the end of this century. All these findings warn of growth declines in Asian boreal forests, and suggest the need for urgent efficient regionally-specific measures to sustain the forest productivity in this region.",Diverse responses of radial growth to climate across the southern part of the Asian boreal forests in northeast China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2089937,"Groundwater resources are in many parts of the world the only source for private domestic, agricultural and public water supply. Subsurface has also become major recipient of wastewater and solid waters especially in the developing countries. Overexploitation of coastal aquifers and pollution are among the main problems related to groundwater resources assessment and management in Santiago Island (Cabo Verde). Brackish groundwater is the only available water type in the region that is being provided to numerous parts of the Island such as Praia Baixo, Montenegro, and Charco for agriculture and human supply. Solute and isotope data obtained in different groundwater systems were used in the identification of groundwater resources degradation. In order to understand the influence of the anthropogenic activities on the water quality and the main origin of the salts in groundwater, a statistical approach (Principal Components Analyses-PCA) was performed on the physico-chemical data. The results obtained indicate water-rock interaction mechanisms as the major process responsible for the groundwater quality (mainly calcium-bicarbonate type), reflecting the lithological composition of the subsurface soil. Also, anthropogenic contamination was identified, in several points of the island. Isotopic techniques (delta H-2, delta O-18 and H-3 content) combined with geochemistry provided comprehensive information on groundwater recharge, as well as on the identification of salinization mechanisms (e.g. seawater intrusion, salt dissolution, and marine aerosols) of the groundwater systems, at Santiago Island.",Groundwater Assessment at Santiago Island (Cabo Verde): A Multidisciplinary Approach to a Recurring Source of Water Supply,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1498884,"Multi species tree-ring chronologies of the western Himalaya revealed strong significant negative relationship with potential evapotranspiration (PET) and vapor pressure (VP), and positive with moisture index (MI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during spring season (March to May). The preliminary study showed that the MI and PDSI particularly in spring season might have a large scale positive association in developing of annual ring-width patterns, whereas PET and VP during the season are found not to be conducive for the trees growth. PET and VP from the beginning of the year 1917 showed strong influence on tree growth. High and low PET/VP might be associated with low and high MI/PDSI of the region. Extremely narrow ring width indices were observed in the year of 1921, 1941, 1953, 1954 and 1985 at most of the tree sites which are under the severe moisture stress condition due to extremely high PET and VP of the region. Also, extremely low PET and VP were found during 1917, 1933 and 1982, reflecting ring-width index above the normal due to enough moisture supply. Thus, the released and suppressed tree growth over the region is probably linked with the high and low MI/PDSI of the region. Loss or accumulation of soil moisture of the region might be precondition before the starting of growing season of the trees. The recent observation also suggests a weakening of VP and PET's influence on tree growth during recent few decades as compared to early period in sliding 31-years windows over western Himalaya. Correlation analysis of PET with MI and VP as well as PDSI for the period 1902-2002 during spring season indicated statistically strong correlation (r= -0.53,0.82, -0.50) respectively which is highly significant at 0.01% level. (C) 2013 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.",Tree-ring analysis over western Himalaya and its long-term association with vapor pressure and potential evapotranspiration,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1875887,"The Tibetan Plateau is the source area of many major rivers in Asia, including the Indus River, Ganges River, Brahmaputra River, Yangtze River and Yellow River. It plays a key role in both hydrologic cycle and climate in eastern and south-eastern Asia. Recent studies have shown that the majority of the plateau area has experienced significant warming since the mid-1950s. This paper investigates hydrological and climatic trends for six large river basins (Yalung Zangbo River, Salween River, Mekong River, Tongtianhe River, Yalongjiang River and Yellow River) in the Tibetan Plateau during 1956-2013, and determines whether the changes in streamflow in these basins are mainly driven by the variation of climatic elements (precipitation and temperature). Our results show that during the past multi-decades, the six river basins did not exhibit distinct trends in annual streamflow (p > 0.05). Yarlung Tsangpo River at Nuxia station and Yellow River at Tangnaihai station showed a slightly decreasing trend (-0.009 mm yr(-2), -0.19 mm yr(-2)) in annual streamflow while others showed a slightly increasing trend. Annual mean temperature and precipitation at all stations except for Luning showed noticeably increasing trends. The impact of global warming on streamflow is complicated. On the one hand, annual evaporation could increase under warmer and drier air conditions, which will result in decreasing streamflow. On the other hand, meltwater will increase under global warming, which will increase streamflow. Our results suggest that climate warming in the Tibetan Plateau has speeded up the water cycle, indicated by the slight increase in streamflow. Further hydrological modelling studies should be conducted to quantify future streamflow changes and their uncertainty across the Tibetan Plateau.",Trends in hydrological variables in large basins in Tibetan Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+744179,"Widespread reports of disappearing tree species and senescing savanna parklands in the Sahel have generated a vigorous debate over whether climate change or severe human and livestock pressure is principally responsible. Many of the tree taxa in decline are closely associated with human settlement and farming, suggesting that the parkland ecosystem may not be a natural vegetation assemblage. The aim of this study is to assess the possibility that human activities promoted the spread of taxa with edible fruit into dry Sudano-Sahelian areas during high-rainfall periods in the climate cycle. West African savannas (Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin). Cultivated savanna parklands and adjacent forests and transitional landscapes were inventoried at 27 sites in five countries. All trees with basal diameters > 10 cm were counted within 500-m(2) belt transects. Species composition and abundance were contrasted between three landscape classes to assess the degree of influence exerted by traditional human management. Twentieth century rainfall data were averaged for two sets of weather stations encompassing the north-south range of typical parkland tree species. Rainfall trends were used to evaluate the putative impact of climate change on edible and/or succulent fruit species at the northern limit of the parkland savanna zone. Species composition and spatial distribution data indicate that the parkland ecosystem is significantly shaped by human activities. Indigenous land management favours edible-fruit-yielding taxa from the wetter Sudanian and Guinean vegetation zones over Sahelian species. Rainfall isohyets at the northern range limits of parkland species shifted southwards in the late 20th century, crossing the critical 600-mm mean annual rainfall threshold for Sudanian flora. Relict vegetation and historical records indicate that the Sudanian parkland system extended in the past to near 15 degrees N latitude in middle West Africa, compared with 13.5 degrees N today. The current loss of mesic trees in the Sudano-Sahel zone appears to be driven by the sharp drop in rainfall since the 1960s, which has effectively stranded anthropogenically distributed species beyond their rainfall tolerance limits.",Tree mortality in the African Sahel indicates an anthropogenic ecosystem displaced by climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+746427,"In Ethiopia, human migration is known to be influenced by environmental change-and vice versa. Thus, degradation of environmental conditions can contribute to out-migration, and in-migration can cause environmental changes at the immigrants' destination. The aim of our study was to systematically identify regions in which socio-ecological pressures can arise from high population densities, migration, land degradation, and/or rainfall variability. We combined population census data at the district level with high-resolution remote sensing data regarding rainfall variability, land degradation, and land cover. We identified districts in which high population density is coupled with both a steep decline in net primary production (NPP) and large precipitation variability. The affected regions are mainly cropping regions located in the northern highlands and in the central part of the Great Rift Valley. We consider these regions to be particularly prone to environmental changes; moreover, high population density places additional stress on local natural resources. Next, we identified districts in which high in-migration is coupled with both a strong decline in NPP and low rainfall variability, proposing that land degradation in these regions is likely to have resulted from human activity rather than climatic factors. The affected regions include parts of the Awash Valley, regions surrounding Lake Tana, and the mountainous regions between Addis Ababa, Bedele, and Jima. We found these hotspots of in-migration and land degradation are dominantly grasslands regions, which have been characterized by significant cropland expansion during the period studied. Whereas exploring causal relationships between migration, environmental change, and land cover change is beyond the scope of our study, we have pinpointed regions where these processes coincide. Our findings suggest that at the regional scale, deteriorating environmental conditions can be both the cause and the effect of migration.","Human migration, climate variability, and land degradation: hotspots of socio-ecological pressure in Ethiopia",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+95050,"Climate has an important influence on the distribution and abundance of invasive species. Habitat suitability for invasive plants could shift with a changing climate and management practices may need to shift in response. Anecdotal evidence suggests that groundsel bush (Baccharis halimifolia) has declined in abundance over the past 50 years in Australia, co-incident with the introduction of a suite of biological control agents. While biological control may be responsible for this decline, here we investigate an alternative hypothesis-that long-term change in the favourability of the climate may have changed growth conditions for groundsel bush throughout its Australian range. We also predict what may happen to the future distribution of this species, using a bioclimatic modelling technique (CLIMEX). We found a significant reduction in the favourability for growth of B. halimifolia over the past 50 years at 29 sites in Australia. Under a likely IPCC future climate scenario prediction (decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature), the favourability for growth of B. halimifolia will continue to decrease in Queensland and its distribution may move further south into New South Wales and Victoria. We conclude that climate alone may have had a significant effect on the distribution and abundance of B. halimifolia and future priorities for management of B. halimifolia should focus on its southern distribution. Determining the success of the biological control programme in isolation from the observed climate effects will be difficult. Given the likelihood of future climate change worldwide evaluation of biological control programmes in general will need to also account for climate effects.",Long term climate effects are confounded with the biological control programme against the invasive weed Baccharis halimifolia in Australia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+347024,"Understanding the impacts of climate on migratory species is complicated by the fact that these species travel through several climates that may be changing in diverse ways throughout their complete migratory cycle. Most studies are not designed to tease out the direct and indirect effects of climate at various stages along the migration route. We assess the impacts of spring and summer climate conditions on breeding monarch butterflies, a species that completes its annual migration cycle over several generations. No single, broad-scale climate metric can explain summer breeding phenology or the substantial year-to-year fluctuations observed in population abundances. As such, we built a Poisson regression model to help explain annual arrival times and abundances in the Midwestern United States. We incorporated the climate conditions experienced both during a spring migration/breeding phase in Texas as well as during subsequent arrival and breeding during the main recruitment period in Ohio. Using data from a state-wide butterfly monitoring network in Ohio, our results suggest that climate acts in conflicting ways during the spring and summer seasons. High spring precipitation in Texas is associated with the largest annual population growth in Ohio and the earliest arrival to the summer breeding ground, as are intermediate spring temperatures in Texas. On the other hand, the timing of monarch arrivals to the summer breeding grounds is not affected by climate conditions within Ohio. Once in Ohio for summer breeding, precipitation has minimal impacts on overall abundances, whereas warmer summer temperatures are generally associated with the highest expected abundances, yet this effect is mitigated by the average seasonal temperature of each location in that the warmest sites receive no benefit of above average summer temperatures. Our results highlight the complex relationship between climate and performance for a migrating species and suggest that attempts to understand how monarchs will be affected by future climate conditions will be challenging.",Tracking climate impacts on the migratory monarch butterfly,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+86265,"The Earth's mean surface air temperature has warmed by similar to 1 degrees C over the last 100 years and is projected to increase at a faster rate in the future, accompanied by changes in precipitation patterns and increases in the occurrence of extreme weather events. In western North America, projected increases in mean annual temperatures range from similar to 1 to 3.5 degrees C by the 2050s, and although projected changes in precipitation patterns are more complex to model, more frequent and severe droughts are expected in many areas. For long-lived tree species, because of their relatively slow rates of migration, climate change will likely result in a mismatch between the climate that trees are currently adapted to and the climate that trees will experience in the future. Individual trees or populations exposed to climate conditions outside their climatic niches may be maladapted, resulting in compromised productivity and increased vulnerability to disturbance, specifically insects and pathogens. In western North America, as elsewhere, several recent assessments have concluded that forests are being affected by climate change and will become increasingly vulnerable to mortality as a result of the direct and indirect effects of climate change. Droughts associated with higher temperatures may accelerate levels of tree mortality, for example, because elevated temperatures increase metabolic rates without increasing photosynthesis rates, thus compromising a tree's ability to create defenses against insects and pathogens. Distributions of the climatic niches of some tree species in western North America are predicted to change by up to 200% during this century based on bioclimate envelope modeling. We discuss the science of climate change, the implications of projected climatic changes to forest ecosystems in western North America, and the essential roles of forest managers, policymakers, and scientists in addressing climate change.","Changing Climates, Changing Forests: A Western North American Perspective",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+217183,"In this study, plausible changes in annual and seasonal precipitation over Ontario, Canada in response to global warming are investigated through a regional climate modeling approach. A high-resolution regional climate model ensemble based upon the Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model is developed to help explore the possible outcomes of future climate. A Bayesian hierarchical model is then employed to quantify the uncertainties involved in the modeling results and obtain probabilistic projections of precipitation changes at grid point scales. The results show that the projected changes in annual precipitation exhibit a certain degree of spatial variability with the median changes mostly bounded by 0% and 20%, implying that the annual precipitation over Ontario is more likely to increase in the context of global warming. Specifically, the mean changes in annual precipitation for 2030s and 2050s would be 7.5%, while the annual precipitation for 2080s is likely to increase by an average of 12.5%. By contrast, the spatial variability of seasonal precipitation changes is more significant, especially for the changes in spring precipitation which may vary from 40% in south and 50% in north. It is reported that there would be a continuous increasing trend in winter, spring, and autumn precipitation from 2030s to 2080s by 5-30%, but summer precipitation is likely to decrease by 5% or even higher to the end of this century. Furthermore, our results suggest that the larger the biases in historical simulations, the more uncertain the future projections will be. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.",Dynamically-downscaled probabilistic projections of precipitation changes: A Canadian case study,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2364132,"Evidence suggests that global maize yield declines with a warming climate, particularly with extreme heat events. However, the degree to which important maize processes such as biomass growth rate, growing season length (GSL) and grain formation are impacted by an increase in temperature is uncertain. Such knowledge is necessary to understand yield responses and develop crop adaptation strategies under warmer climate. Here crop models, satellite observations, survey, and field data were integrated to investigate how high temperature stress influences maize yield in the U.S. Midwest. We showed that both observational evidence and crop model ensemble mean (MEM) suggests the nonlinear sensitivity in yield was driven by the intensified sensitivity of harvest index (HI), but MEM underestimated the warming effects through HI and overstated the effects through GSL. Further analysis showed that the intensified sensitivity in HI mainly results from a greater sensitivity of yield to high temperature stress during the grain filling period, which explained more than half of the yield reduction. When warming effects were decomposed into direct heat stress and indirect water stress (WS), observational data suggest that yield is more reduced by direct heat stress (-4.6 +/- 1.0%/degrees C) than by WS (-1.7 +/- 0.65%/degrees C), whereas MEM gives opposite results. This discrepancy implies that yield reduction by heat stress is underestimated, whereas the yield benefit of increasing atmospheric CO2 might be overestimated in crop models, because elevated CO2 brings yield benefit through water conservation effect but produces limited benefit over heat stress. Our analysis through integrating data and crop models suggests that future adaptation strategies should be targeted at the heat stress during grain formation and changes in agricultural management need to be better accounted for to adequately estimate the effects of heat stress.",Dissecting the nonlinear response of maize yield to high temperature stress with model-data integration,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+498051,"A changing climate is increasing the frequency, intensity, duration and spatial extent of heat waves. These changes are associated with increased human mortality during heat extremes. At the other end of the temperature scale, it has been widely speculated that cold-related mortality could decrease in a warmer world. We aim to answer a key question; the extent to which mortality due to temperature extremes in Stockholm, Sweden during 1980-2009 can be attributed to climate change that has occurred since our reference period (1900-1929). Mortality from heat extremes in 1980-2009 was double what would have occurred without climate change. Although temperature shifted towards warmer temperatures in the winter season, cold extremes occurred more frequently, contributing to a small increase of mortality during the winter months. No evidence was found for adaptation over 1980-2009.","Attributing mortality from extreme temperatures to climate change in Stockholm, Sweden",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1822978,"The development of water storage schemes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is considered a major aid for those regions with unequal water distribution, limited accessibility and anticipated climate change impacts. Great attention is given by many SSA countries to set up different water storage schemes that may improve rural and urban development on a national level. The funding for the water storage schemes is often derived from foreign agencies which conduct feasibility studies for the financing of potential investments. Often however, the feasibility studies rely on a single monetary criterion which may not identify the most appropriate water storage in each case. In addition, limited data availability in many SSA countries increases the difficulty of identifying the most suitable storage option. This paper develops a multicriteria framework for the integrated evaluation of water storage strategies in Sub-Saharan African countries. A set of economic, agronomic and opinion-based criteria are assessed through the PROMETHEE II outranking approach. The introduction of crop modeling complements the limited field data available in agronomic criteria and enhances the scientific rigor of the method. Ethiopia is adopted as a representative case of SSA countries where a diverse set of water storage options is currently under construction, often financed by foreign agencies.",Developing a User-Based Decision-Aid Framework for Water Storage Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+566762,"In various studies encompassing large spatiotemporal scales, the densities of non-indigenous species and indigenous species in the same habitat increased and decreased, respectively, prior to reaching an equilibrium. We examined whether this is true for a non-indigenous mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis, introduced into Japan before 1934, and the sympatric indigenous bivalves: Septifer virgatus, Septifer bilocularis, Hormomya mutabilis, Saccostrea kegaki, Saccostrea mordax and Barbatia (Savignyarca) virescens. Seven quadrat surveys during 1978-2006 on 19 rocky shores (26.6-41.4A degrees N) showed unexpected results. Density of M. galloprovincialis decreased on 89% of the shores where this mussel had previously been found. In contrast, densities of the indigenous bivalves decreased on lower percentages (17-71%) of shores where the bivalves had been found. Shore-to-shore mean density of M. galloprovincialis decreased from the 1970s (27.0-88.7 m(-2)) to the 2000s (0.0-1.1 m(-2)), more sharply than any of the indigenous bivalves (from 4.6-9.1 m(-2) to 0.7-1.5 m(-2) for S. bilocularis, which showed the most marked reduction). The conspicuous decrease for M. galloprovincialis suggests that some factors on the studied shores have become disadvantageous especially for this non-indigenous mussel from the earlier to the later surveys.",Evidence of a sharper decrease in a non-indigenous mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis than in indigenous bivalves from 1978 to 2006 on Japanese rocky shores,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+509050,"In recent decades, the Yongding River in Beijing has ceased to flow due to the impact of climate and anthropogenic factors, which has led to severe environmental degradation. The Beijing government is constructing new freshwater ecosystems on the Yongding River to improve environmental conditions for ecosystem services. Clarification is needed on the influence of precipitation and anthropogenic factors on streamflow decline in Beijing. A hydrological time-series analysis was conducted on recorded streamflow at Guanting Reservoir, Yanchi, and Sanjiadian to estimate the influence of precipitation variability on the drying of the Yongding River in Beijing. From 1980 to 2010, the mean annual rates of streamflow decline were 0.44 m(3) s(-1) yr(-1) (Guanting), 0.42 m(3) s(-1) yr(-1) (Yanchi), and 0.03 m(3) s(-1) yr(-1) (Sanjiadian). The most probable abrupt change-point for annual streamflow was 1999 at Guanting Reservoir and Yanchi, and was 2000 at Sanjiadian. Between the pre-change (1980-1999) and post-change (2000-2010) periods, mean annual streamflow decreased by 68.56% (Guanting), 66.92% (Yanchi), and 96.78% (Sanjiadian). A multiple regression analysis using annual precipitation and streamflow at Guanting, Yanchi, and Sanjiadian showed an insignificant relationship between local precipitation and streamflow in both periods. Next we assessed the potential impact of upstream human activities on downstream flow using: (1) correlation statistics between upstream flow and downstream flow, (2) water abstracted above Sanjiadian, and (3) upstream socioeconomic data. The results suggest upstream human activities are important drivers on downstream flow decline, which could possibly explain the weak relationship between precipitation and streamflow. Further analysis is needed to clarify the influence of upstream water consumption on Guanting Reservoir to advise management on the new freshwater ecosystems along the Yongding River. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Drivers of drying on the Yongding River in Beijing,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+411770,"The Arctic is currently undergoing rapid social and environmental changes, and while the peoples of the north have a long history of adapting, the current changes in climate pose unprecedented challenges to the marine mammal-human interactions in the Arctic regions. Arctic marine mammals have been and remain an important resource for many of the indigenous and nonindigenous people of the north. Changes in climate are likely to bring about profound changes to the environment in which these animals live and subsequently to the hunting practices and livelihoods of the people who hunt them. Climate change will lead to reduction in the sea ice extent and thickness and will likely increase shipping through the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage and oil and. gas activities in Arctic areas previously inaccessible. Such activities will lead to more frequent interactions between humans and marine mammals. These activities may also change the distribution of marine mammals, affecting the hunters. This paper has three parts. First, an overview of marine mammal harvesting activities in the different circumpolar regions provides a snapshot of current practices and conditions. Second case studies of selected Arctic regions, indigenous groups, and species provide insight into the manner in which climate change is already impacting marine mammal harvesting activities in the Arctic. Third, we describe how climate change is likely to affect shipping and oil and gas exploration and production activities in the Arctic and describe the possible implications of these changes for the marine mammal populations. We conclude that many of the consequences of climate change are likely to be negative for marine mammal hunters and for marine mammals. Lack of adequate baseline data, however, makes it difficult to identify specific causal mechanisms and thus to develop appropriate conservation measures. Nonetheless, the future of Arctic marine mammals and human uses of them depends on addressing this challenge successfully.",Marine mammal harvests and other interactions with humans,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2093955,"The Volta Basin is a transboundary basin shared by six riparian countries. In 2007, the Volta Basin Authority (VBA) was established and it was mandated to provide legal and institutional arrangements among the riparian countries for managing the water resources of the Volta Basin. The transboundary diagnostic analysis commissioned by the VBA has highlighted five key challenges that the basin faces: changes in water quantity and seasonal flows; degradation of ecosystems; water quality concerns; governance; and climate change. A key mandate of the VBA is authorizing the development of infrastructure and projects that could have a substantial impact on the water resources in the basin. The water resources in the Volta Basin contribute significantly to the economic development of the six riparian countries. This is the case particularly for Burkina Faso and Ghana where more than 60% of the area of each country is located within the Volta Basin. The water resources are being utilized for agricultural production, domestic water use, livestock watering and hydropower production. Increasing demands on the resources have created competition between sectors and countries. Widespread construction of hydraulic infrastructure of different sizes and for different purposes has been developed over the years. Climate change and variability, and upstream water resources development have impacted the hydropower generation of Akosombo and Kpong dams, located close to the Volta Estuary. This comprises about 70% of the installed hydropower capacity of the basin. The Volta Basin is also endowed with freshwater ecosystems which provide various ecosystem services that contribute to local livelihoods, and larger-scale basin objectives, by providing food, fuel and construction materials, regulating flows (reducing peak and increasing baseflows) as well as by providing habitats for animals, such as migrant birds, which may attract recreational activities. Both natural and built infrastructure provide benefits. Some benefits such as hydropower are only provided by built infrastructure but others, such as water treatment and flood control, can be provided by both natural and built infrastructure. In addition, natural infrastructure supports the performance of built infrastructure, through providing water of a certain quantify and quality. Degradation of natural infrastructure is a key concern in the Volta Basin and may affect the performance of downstream dams. On the other hand, natural infrastructure may be affected by the development and management of built infrastructure, as is observed downstream of the Akosombo Dam. Future water resources development in the Volta Basin requires an integrated approach towards built infrastructure development and investments in natural infrastructure to ensure optimal basin-wide benefits. © 2012, by IWMI.",Water resources assessment of the Volta River Basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+454977,"Recent studies in the western North Pacific reported a declining standing stock biomass of anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and a climate-driven southward shift of anchovy catch in Korean waters. We investigated the effects of a warming ocean on the latitudinal shift of anchovy catch by developing and applying individual-based models (IBMs) based on a regional ocean circulation model and an IPCC climate change scenario. Despite the greater uncertainty, our two IBMs projected that, by the 2030s, the strengthened Tsushima warm current in the Korea Strait and the East Sea, driven by global warming, and the subsequent confinement of the relatively cold water masses within the Yellow Sea will decrease larval anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea, but will increase it in the Korea Strait and the East Sea. The decreasing trend of anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea was reproduced by our models, but further validation and enhancement of the models is required together with extended ichthyoplankton surveys to understand and reliably project range shifts of anchovy and the impacts such range shifts will have on the marine ecosystems and fisheries in the region.",Climate-change driven range shifts of anchovy biomass projected by bio-physical coupling individual based model in the marginal seas of East Asia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1552554,"Shells of the marine gastropod Turbo torquatus were sampled from three different locations along the Western Australian coastline, namely Marmion Lagoon (31 degrees S), Rottnest Island (32 degrees S), and Hamelin Bay (34 degrees S). Marmion Lagoon and Rottnest Island have similar sea surface temperature ranges that are approximate to 1 degrees C warmer than Hamelin Bay, with all sites influenced by the warm southward flowing Leeuwin Current. The shells were characterized using crystallographic, spectroscopic, and geochemical analyses. Shell mineral composition varies between the three sites suggesting the influence of sea surface temperature, oxygen consumption, and/or bedrock composition on shell mineralogy and preferential incorporation and/or elemental discrimination of Mg, P, and S. Furthermore, T. torquatus was found to exert control over the incorporation of most, if not all, the elements measured here, suggesting strong biological regulation. At all levels of testing, the concentrations of Li varied significantly, which indicates that this trace element may not be a suitable environmental proxy. Variation in Sr concentration between sites and between specimens reflects combined environmental and biological controls suggesting that Sr/Ca ratios in T. torquatus cannot be used to estimate sea surface temperature without experimentally accounting for metabolic and growth effects. The mineral composition and microstructure of T. torquatus shells may help identify sea surface temperature variations on geological time scales. These findings support the previously hypothesized involvement of an active selective pathway across the calcifying mantle of T. torquatus for most, if not all, the elements measured here.",Geochemical and Crystallographic Study of Turbo Torquatus (Mollusca: Gastropoda) From Southwestern Australia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3927751,"Perfluorinated acids (PFAs) such as perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) are global environmental contaminants. The physicochemical properties of PFAs are unique in that they have high water solubilities despite the low reactivity of carbon-fluorine bond, which also imparts high stability in the environment. Because of the high water solubilities, the open-ocean water column is suggested to be the final sink for PFOS and PFOA. However, little is known on the distribution of PFAs in the oceans around the world. Here we describe the horizontal (spatial) and vertical distribution of PFAs in ocean waters worldwide. PFOS and PFOA concentrations in the North Atlantic Ocean ranged from 8.6 to 36pg l(-1) and from 52 to 338pg l(-1), respectively, whereas the corresponding concentrations in the Mid Atlantic Ocean were 13-73pg l(-1) and 67-439pg l(-1). These were completely different from the surface waters of the South Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean (overall range of <5-11pg l(-1) for PFOS and PFOA). Vertical profiles of PFAs in the marine water column were associated with the global ocean circulation theory. Vertical profiles of PFAs in water columns from the Labrador Sea reflected the influx of the North Atlantic Current in surface waters, the Labrador Current in subsurface waters, and the Denmark Strait Overflow Water in deep layers below 2000m. Striking differences in the vertical and spatial distribution of PFAs, depending on the oceans, suggest that these persistent acids can serve as useful chemical tracers to allow us to study oceanic transportation by major water currents. The results provide evidence that PFA concentrations and profiles in the oceans adhere to a pattern consistent with the global ""Broecker's Conveyor Belt"" theory of open ocean water circulation.",Perfluorinated acids as novel chemical tracers of global circulation of ocean waters.,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+127845,"Climatic disaster-induced migration and its effects on land exploitation of new settlements is a crucial topic that needs to be researched to better understand the impact of climate change and human adaptation. This paper focuses on the process and mechanism of migrant-reclamation in Northeast China in response to climatic disasters over the past 300 years. The research used comparative analysis of key interlinked factors in this response involving drought/flood events, population, cropland area, farmer revolts, administrations establishment, and land reclamation policies. It draws the following conclusions: (1) seven peaks of migrants-reclamation in Northeast China were evident, most likely when frequent climatic disasters happened in North China, such as the drought-flood in 1851-1859, drought in 1875-1877, and drought 1927-1929; (2) six instances of policy transformation adopted to cope with extreme climatic events, including distinctive examples like changing to a firm policy prohibiting migration in 1740 and a subsequent lifting of that prohibition in 1860; and (3) the fast expansion of the northern agricultural boundary since the middle of the nineteenth century in this area benefited from a climate change trend from a cold period into a warm period. Altogether, over the past 300 years, extreme climatic disasters in North China have deepened the contradiction between the limited land resources and the rapidly increasing population and have resulted in migration and reclamation in Northeast China. Climate, policy, and reclamation constructed an organic chain of response that dominated the land use/cover change process of Northeast China.",Migration and reclamation in Northeast China in response to climatic disasters in North China over the past 300 years,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2316742,"The Pampas is a natural flat region that covers 750 000 km(2) in Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina. The driest part of the Argentinean Pampas is occupied by thorny forests dominated by Fabaceae species, mainly by calden (Prosopis caldenia Burkart). The calden's area was affected by large human immigration processes that started in the 18th century up to the last century. Semiarid climate in calden's area has made water a critical source for the development of biotic communities and human settlements. Native people dug wells, lined by wooden poles, commonly named jagueles, in order to have access to drinkable groundwater. Such poles, preserved in the subsoil, were submitted to wood anatomical and dendrochronological analysis, and 18 were collected from three archeological sites. Because the poles were undated, they were compared with two master chronologies of P. caldenia that belong to the area. Anatomical studies determined that the poles belonged to P. caldenia and Prosopis flexuosa. Poles of one of the sampling sites had their last tree rings between 1799 and 1838, which coincided with indigenous occupation period. On the contrary, the samples from the other two sites were placed chronologically between 1885 and 1918, which coincided with the first creole and European occupation. These results show the use of native people's traditional building strategies by other cultural groups such as the creole and European settlers since the strategies were useful in the semiarid environments.",Dendrochronological studies of indigenous and creole archeological remains in the Argentinean Pampas (19th and 20th centuries),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+10670,"Jatropha curcas L. is the subject of many research and breeding programs concerned with its potential as an oil crop for biodiesel production. Despite an increasing amount of information regarding this relatively new crop, pollination requirements of this plant are largely neglected. The aim of the study was to evaluate the relative significance of ants and honeybees as potential pollinators of J. curcas grown under Mediterranean conditions. Jatropha curcas plants bloomed throughout the summer and fall, peaking twice, in early summer and late fall. During this period, the plants were visited by 70 species of insects representing 45 families from seven orders, with most species rarely being observed. Ants and Honeybees were the most common species, accounting for >95% of all flower visits. The foraging behavior of the honeybees followed the pattern of bloom phenology, especially during the summer, and mostly promoted cross-pollination. Ants on the other hand, mostly promoted self pollination showing no such correlative behavior, reacting often too late to nectar availability, and were highly susceptible to climatic changes. Pollinator exclusion treatments revealed that during summer, fruit and seed sets, as well as seed size and oil and protein contents, were relatively similar for ant and bee-pollinated flowers. During fall, however, reproductive success of bee-pollinated flowers was relatively high (66%), while fruit set of ant-pollinated flowers was significantly reduced from 71 to 11%. In conclusion, while both groups are equal in their pollination effectiveness in the summer, during the fall the honeybees are almost the sole pollinators of the plant. Based on bloom phenology and pollination activity data, the honeybees are responsible for the pollination of more than 80% of the annual reproductive potential of J. curcas, under Mediterranean conditions.",Can ants equal honeybees as effective pollinators of the energy crop Jatropha curcas L. under Mediterranean conditions?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+542400,"The permafrost of the Western Canadian Arctic has a very high ground ice content. As a result, the vast number of thaw takes in this area are very sensitive to it changing climate. With thaw lakes prone to either increases in area due to thermokarst processes, or complete drainage in less than one day due to melting of channels through ice-rich permafrost. After a lake drains, it leaves a topographic basin that is often termed a Drained Thaw Lake Basin (DTLB). An analysis of aerial photographs and topographic maps showed that 41 lakes drained in the study area between 1950 and 2000, for a rate of slightly less than one lake per year. The rate of drainage over three time periods (1950-1973. 1973-1985, 1985-2000), decreased from over 1 lake/year to approximately 0.3 lake/year. The reason for this decrease is not known, but it is hypothesized that it is related to the effect of a warming climate. There is a large spatial variation in DTLBs, with higher number of drained lakes in physiographic areas with poor drainage. It is likely that this variation is related to variations in ground ice. Although previous Studies have suggested that lakes drain during periods of high water level, it is likely that a combination of it warm summer, a resulting deep active layer, and a moderately high lake level were responsible for the drainage of a lake in the study area during the summer of 1989. Although this study has documented changes in the rate of lake drainage over a 50-year period, there is a need for further research to better understand the complex interactions between climate, geomorphology, and hydrology responsible for this change, and to further consider the potential hazard rapid lake drainage poses to future industrial or resource development in the area. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada. The contributions of P. Marsh, M. Russell, H. Haywood and C. Onclin belong to the Crown in right of Canada and are reproduced with the permission of Environment Canada.",Changes in thaw lake drainage in the Western Canadian Arctic from 1950 to 2000,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3960672,"Deficit irrigation practices and utilization of rootstocks that are tolerant to water stress are critical strategies for the protection of water resources and sustainable irrigation management, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Therefore, this study was carried out to investigate the yield and quality of watermelon grafted onto different rootstocks under deficit irrigation conditions during 2017 and 2018 in the Konya Plain of Turkey, where the semi-arid climate is prevalent. In this study, five different plant materials, such as citroides1 (A(1)), citroides2 (A(2)), gourd (A(3)), hybrid TZ148 (A(4)) rootstocks grafted with the Crimson Tide variety, and non-grafted Crimson Tide as control (K-1), were used as the main-plots. Five different irrigation levels, calculated by taking into account the amounts of cumulative water (Ep) that evaporated at 7-day intervals from Class A Pan (I-100 = 1.00Ep; I-75 = 0.75Ep; I-50 = 0.50Ep; I-35 = 0.35Ep, and I-0 = rain-fed), were used as the sub-plots. When the average of experimental years was considered, the highest rate of evapotranspiration (ET) was found in the plot A4I100 (615 mm). The highest fruit yield was obtained from the A(4)I(100) (93.4 t/ha), and an increase in yield of up to 35 % was achieved in the A(4)I(100), compared to non-grafted plants applied I-100 irrigation level (K1I100). The analysis of data by both separate evaluation and principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that the yield values obtained from plants grafted onto A(4), A(1), and A(2) rootstocks applied I-75 irrigation level were higher than non-grafted plants applied I100 irrigation level. The water productivity (WP) and irrigation water productivity (IWP) ranged between 7.1-17.4 kg/m(3) and 11.7-25.0 kg/m(3), respectively, and a significant increase in the values of WP and IWP was achieved by grafting. This two-year study revealed that the performances of citron watermelon rootstocks were found close to the TZ148 rootstock in terms of fruit yield, certain yield components, WP, and IWP. Thus, it has also been demonstrated that the citron watermelons could be used commercially as watermelon rootstocks, and citron watermelon rootstocks could be used as watermelon rootstocks in breeding programs, in order to save water, especially in arid and semi-arid regions.",How do rootstocks of citron watermelon (Citrullus lanatus var. citroides) affect the yield and quality of watermelon under deficit irrigation?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+691542,"Information on the relationship between hydrologic response and land use and land cover change (LULC) is vital for proper management of water resources and land use planning. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of LULC an the hydrologic characteristics of Palico watershed in Batangas, Philippines using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Model inputs used were the 1989 and 2013 LULC maps and climatological and hydrologic data. Good agreement was obtained between simulated and observed streamflow values during model calibration (NSE=0.84 & R2=0.86), and validation (NSE=0.61 & R-2=0.68). For the entire watershed, reduction in forest cover and rangeland resulted to an increase in surface runoff and decreases in baseflow or dry season flow and groundwater recharge. LULC changes affected the water quantity and timing of occurrence. Subbasin with 22% increase in forest cover and rangeland increased the baseflow by I% to 15% and reduced the streamflow by I% to 17% during the rainy months. Another subbasin with. 54% forest loss resulted to more pronounced rainfall-runoff response with 11% to 17% decrease in baseflow and 4% to 24% increase in streamflow during rainy months. Finding the balance between these two opposite LULC change scenarios is crucial for the attainment of water security and sustainability in the watershed and in the areas it serves.","Hydrologic Impact Evaluation of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Palico Watershed, Batangas, Philippines Using the SWAT Model",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3301970,"Few studies have been carried out to systematically screen regional temperature-sensitive diseases. This study was aimed at systematically and comprehensively screening both high- and low-temperature-sensitive diseases by using mortality data from 17 study sites in China located in temperate and subtropical climate zones. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to quantify the association between extreme temperature and mortality to screen temperature-sensitive diseases from 18 kinds of diseases of eight disease systems. The attributable fractions (AFs) of sensitive diseases were calculated to assess the mortality burden attributable to high and low temperatures. A total of 1,380,713 records of all-cause deaths were involved. The results indicate that injuries, nervous, circulatory and respiratory diseases are sensitive to heat, with the attributable fraction accounting for 6.5%, 4.2%, 3.9% and 1.85%, respectively. Respiratory and circulatory diseases are sensitive to cold temperature, with the attributable fraction accounting for 13.3% and 11.8%, respectively. Most of the high- and low-temperature-sensitive diseases seem to have higher relative risk in study sites located in subtropical zones than in temperate zones. However, the attributable fractions for mortality of heat-related injuries were higher in temperate zones. The results of this research provide epidemiological evidence of the relative burden of mortality across two climate zones in China.",Regional Temperature-Sensitive Diseases and Attributable Fractions in China,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1284189,"This study examines the joint variability of precipitation, river streamflow and temperature over northeastern Argentina; advances the understanding of their links with global SST forcing; and discusses their impacts on water resources, agriculture and human settlements. The leading patterns of variability, and their nonlinear trends and cycles are identified by means of a principal component analysis (PCA) complemented with a singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Interannual hydroclimatic variability centers on two broad frequency bands: one of 2.5-6.5 years corresponding to El Nifio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periodicities and the second of about 9 years. The higher frequencies of the precipitation variability (2.5-4 years) favored extreme events after 2000, even during moderate extreme phases of the ENSO. Minimum temperature is correlated with ENSO with a main frequency close to 3 years. Maximum temperature time series correlate well with SST variability over the South Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans with a 9-year frequency. Interdecadal variability is characterized by low-frequency trends and multidecadal oscillations that have induced a transition from dryer and cooler climate to wetter and warmer decades starting in the mid-twentieth century. The Parana River streamflow is influenced by North and South Atlantic SSTs with bidecadal periodicities. The hydroclimate variability at all timescales had significant sectoral impacts. Frequent wet events between 1970 and 2005 favored floods that affected agricultural and livestock productivity and forced population displacements. On the other hand, agricultural droughts resulted in soil moisture deficits that affected crops at critical growth stages. Hy-drological droughts affected surface water resources, causing water and food scarcity and stressing the capacity for hydropower generation. Lastly, increases in minimum temperature reduced wheat and barley yields.",Interannual-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability and its sectoral impacts in northeastern Argentina,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1946036,"Projected droughts for 21st century over India have been analysed using precipitation and temperature data obtained from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized effective Precipitation Evapo-Transpiration Index (SP*ETI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the timescale of 12-months have been used for drought characterization. The K-means clustering algorithm has been utilized to delineate distinct drought homogeneous regions in India. Trends and periodicities in drought characteristics have also been analysed. The results of this study reveal that increase in evapotranspiration due to projected rise in temperature would play a major role in affecting future drought dynamics in most parts of India. Analysis indicates that computed magnitude of drought intensity, duration and frequency depends on the choice of drought indicator. SPEI drought index has been found to project highest drought risk as compared to other two indices used in this study. North India is more vulnerable to increase in drought severity and frequency in near future. However in far future, most parts of the country, except few southeastern states, are likely to face an escalation in drought severity and frequency. A shift in drought hazard from central India toward southeast-central India is likely to happen with increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration. The areal extent of droughts has been found to be increasing historically which is expected to increase further in future for most parts of the country. Historically, drought dynamics were more influenced by decrease in precipitation. However, in future, the drought dynamics will be significantly influenced by increased evapotranspiration resulting from increase in temperature in spite of likely increase in precipitation. The periodicity analysis indicates inter-annual periodicities influencing monsoon months to be distributed uniformly across all clusters of the Indian subcontinent with dominant cycles of 2-3.6 years. Further, change in periodic cycles of drought due to climate change is found to be insignificant.",Investigation of multi-model spatiotemporal mesoscale drought projections over India under climate change scenario,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2352074,"As concern about anthropogenic noise and its impacts on marine fauna is increasing around the globe, data are being compared across populations, species, noise sources, geographic regions, and time. However, much of the raw and processed data are not comparable due to differences in measurement methodology, analysis and reporting, and a lack of metadata. Common protocols and more formal, international standards are needed to ensure the effectiveness of research, conservation, regulation and practice, and unambiguous communication of information and ideas. Developing standards takes time and effort, is largely driven by a few expert volunteers, and would benefit from stakeholders' contribution and support.",Summary Report Panel 1: The Need for Protocols and Standards in Research on Underwater Noise Impacts on Marine Life,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2328556,"Water temperature of paddy field is an important factor that affect the growth and yield of rice. However, collecting data on water temperature is quite laborious, and it is difficult to investigate the water temperature over a wider area, such as paddy field regions. To overcome this problem, a simple model to estimate the daily mean water temperature of paddy fields using meteorological data was developed. The model is based on a crop growth model coupled to an equilibrium water temperature model. With this model, the water temperature of a paddy field can be estimated using only three factors namely, air temperature, solar radiation, and water vapor pressure, observed from a nearby weather station. The model was applied to estimate the water temperature of some paddy field regions under warm temperate climate in west Japan to determine geographic difference in water temperature. Patterns of seasonal variation in water temperature of paddy field regions can be classified into five types Results clearly showed that variation were due to agronomic and climatic differences among paddy field regions.",Simple model to estimate the water temperature of paddy field using meteorological data and its application to warm temperate climate in west Japan,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2330992,"Mapping surface air temperature in the Antarctic Peninsula region is made unusually difficult by: the scarcity of meteorological stations, strong climatic gradients and recent rapid regional warming. We have compiled a database of 534 mean annual temperatures derived from measurements of snow temperature at around 10-m depth and air temperature measured at meteorological stations and automatic weather stations. These annual temperatures were corrected for interannual variability using a composite record from six stations across the region. The corrected temperatures were then analysed using multiple linear regression to yield altitudinal and temporal lapse rates. A subset of 508 values were then used to produce a map of temperature reduced to sea level and for a specific epoch (2000 A.D.). The map shows the dramatic climate contrast (3-5degreesC) between the east and west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula in greater detail than earlier studies and also indicates that the present limit of ice shelves closely follows the -9degreesC (2000 A.D.) isotherm. Furthermore, the limit of ice shelves known to have retreated during the last 100 years is bounded by the -9degreesC and -5degreesC (2000 A.D.) isotherms, suggesting that the retreat of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula region is consistent with a warming of around similar to 4degreesC.",Spatial and temporal variation of surface temperature on the Antarctic Peninsula and the limit of viability of ice shelves,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+626308,"Extreme temperatures are causing forest dieback in a Mediterranean-type forest. Topography and cold-air pooling explain the geographic distribution of frost dieback in susceptible tree species. Alterations to the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, predicted with climate change, pose a threat to the health of many forests. Some Mediterranean climate regions are experiencing higher temperature variability, including more extreme low and high temperature events. Following one such low-temperature event in autumn 2012, we conducted landscape- and site-level studies to examine the impact of frost on trees and the interaction between topography, temperature, and dieback in a forest ecosystem in the Mediterranean climate region of southwest Australia. Canopy damage was widespread across the survey area and occurred in distinct patches, with sizes ranging between 4.1 and 2,518.0 ha. In affected forest, Eucalyptus marginata and Corymbia calophylla experienced nearly complete crown dieback, while E. patens and E. wandoo were undamaged. Canopy damage was found more frequently in valleys and lower to mid-slope positions, and site-level studies confirmed that crown dieback generally increased with decreasing elevation. Low temperatures were strongly correlated with elevation along damaged forest transects and cold-air pooling explained the pattern of forest damage. By regressing temperatures from damaged sites against those collected from the nearest meteorological station, projected minimum air temperatures ranged from -0.1 to -2.7 A degrees C at valley bottom when the dieback occurred. Insufficient tissue hardening is suspected to have predisposed trees to this autumn frost. The interaction between shifting temperature regimes with climate change and frost damage is discussed. With continued increases in temperature variability, we can expect to see more temperature-driven disturbance events and associated reductions in forest health.",Topography influences the distribution of autumn frost damage on trees in a Mediterranean-type Eucalyptus forest,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+711961,"In the present study, an attempt was made to give a preliminary estimate of heat-related mortality in Northern Greece, during the summer period, for the years 1970-2009, with special regard to extreme heat waves. Long-term trends in the human mortality data, for the hot period of the year, can be influenced by different demographic factors (changes in the size and age structure of the population), the population adaptation to the local climate, the temporal fluctuations in extreme heat waves, and the significant increasing trend in cumulative thermal stress on people, at least partially related to anthropogenic climatic change. The plots of summer excess mortality (all causes of death as well as the cardiovascular and respiratory mortality) versus several biometeorological parameters, indicate a pronounced significant increase of mortality rates, with strong and extreme cumulative thermal stress indices.","HUMAN DISCOMFORT DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN URBAN THESSALONIKI, GREECE. PART IV. HEAT-RELATED MORTALITY (PRELIMINARY RESULTS)",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+397509,"Boreal ecosystems store significant quantities of organic carbon (C) that may be vulnerable to degradation as a result of a warming climate. Despite their limited coverage on the landscape, streams play a significant role in the processing, gaseous emission, and downstream export of C, and small streams are thought to be particularly important because of their close connection with the surrounding landscape. However, ecosystem carbon studies do not commonly incorporate the role of the aquatic conduit. We measured carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations and emissions in a headwater stream network of interior Alaska underlain by permafrost to assess the potential role of stream gas emissions in the regional carbon balance. First-order streams exhibited the greatest variability in fluxes of CO2 and CH4, and the greatest mean pCO(2). High-resolution time series of stream pCO(2) and discharge at two locations on one first-order stream showed opposing pCO(2) responses to storm events, indicating the importance of hydrologic flowpaths connecting CO2-rich soils with surface waters. Repeated longitudinal surveys on the stream showed consistent areas of elevated pCO(2) and pCH(4), indicative of discrete hydrologic flowpaths delivering soil water and groundwater having varying chemistry. Up-scaled basin estimates of stream gas emissions suggest that streams may contribute significantly to catchment-wide CH4 emissions. Overall, our results indicate that while stream-specific gas emission rates are disproportionately high relative to the terrestrial landscape, both stream surface area and catchment normalized emission rates were lower than those documented for the Yukon River Basin as a whole. This may be due to limitations of C sources and/or C transport to surface waters.",Emissions of carbon dioxide and methane from a headwater stream network of interior Alaska,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3897484,"Taking approximately 140,000 lives, Cyclone Nargis hit the Ayeyawady Delta of Myanmar in May 2008, as the government was preparing to hold a referendum to confirm a new constitution for the country. The referendum was part of the military’s seven-step road map to a new constitutional order. Given the political significance of the referendum, the government’s post-cyclone relief efforts were ignored, and an international campaign was launched to provide a means of intruding into the political process under way. The government successfully fended off those efforts, thanks in part to assistance from ASEAN and other Asian states and much to the frustration of the United States and other Western governments. This comment was originally prepared in 2009 as a paper presented to a workshop on the response to Cyclone Nargis held at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. © 2015 ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.",Responding to Nargis: Political storm or humanitarian rage?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+326127,"Benthic epifauna in three areas of the northern North Sea was studied from 1999 to 2007 to investigate the effect of temperature changes on community structure and species abundance and biomass. Abundance and/or biomass of 16 epifauna species was significantly correlated with temperature anomalies of the mean sea surface temperature (SST) from 1971 to 2000. The response of species to SST changes was different in the study areas depending on species life history and, most likely on food supply, which in turn is strongly influenced by the timing and duration of primary production and regional hydrographical conditions (e.g. stratification). Also, changes in community structure were obvious in the three areas between 2002 and 2003 coinciding with high temperature anomalies and SST. On the other hand, these changes were mainly caused by the variability in abundance of dominant species and altogether no clear trends in community structure were found. In contrast to epifauna communities in the shallow southern North Sea temperature changes in the northern North Sea affected only single epifauna species until now.",Variability of epifauna and temperature in the northern North Sea,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1861394,"The study examined the effectiveness and challenges in the use of indigenous climate change adaptation measures by bee farmers in Enugu State. Sixty households' heads involved in honey production were used. Structured interview schedule, focus group discussion and observation were used for data collection and the analysis was carried out using descriptive statistics. Production of honey across the years (2000 to 2015) showed a downward trend, while the number of hives installed increased significantly. The respondents effectively adapted to climate change through change of sites of hives ((x) over bar= 4.00), tree planting ((x) over bar= 3.33), amendment of the periods of beekeeping operations ((x) over bar= 3.00) among others. However, they experienced challenges caused by indiscriminate cutting of trees ((x) over bar =3.42), inadequate information on adaptation measures ((x) over bar= 3.30), pesticide threat ((x) over bar =3.07) among others. Extension workers should intensify tailored training and visit to beekeepers to update producers' knowledge on bee farming (modern techniques), climate change implications of some farm practices (indiscriminate cutting of tree) and provide information on innovative adaptation options. Educational outreach on climate change to rural communities to stimulate community involvement in promoting environmentally sound practices should be advocated and funded by development agencies. Also, linking farmers to relevant actors, equipment dealers, financial institution; and enacting policy that will create and foster collaborative interaction for effective adaptation to climate change should be championed by public and non - governmental organizations.","Indigenous Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Used by Honey Producers in Rural Commimities of Enugu State, Nigeria",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2496649,"The purpose of this study was to identify relationships between meteorological and hydrological observations and sediment flux rate changes, in order to better understand catchment dynamics. The meteorological and hydrological observations included local air temperature, wind speed, water temperature, and ice cover, while the sediment flux rate was observed in the lake basin using a modified sediment trap technique. This study demonstrates the advantages of a new online methodology applied in conventional sediment trapping to obtain flux rate information with daily resolution. A prototype of a high-resolution online sediment trap was tested in Savilahti Bay, Lake Kallavesi, eastern Finland, during the period from 22 October 2017 to 6 October 2018. The daily resolutions of meteorological, hydrological, and sediment flux rate data were analyzed using statistical methods. The results indicate relationships between temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and sediment flux rate, but the urban site also showed erosional changes due to anthropogenic land use. Sediment flux ceased during winter season and spring floods were recorded as pronounced peaks in sediment flux, while the growing season showed generally higher sediment accumulation rates. This research also provides valuable information on the catchment response to short-term weather events. The influence of a storm led to larger sediment flux for several days. The importance of wind speed and frost formation on sedimentation, which has been difficult to address due to trap deployment times of typically several months, is now supported. Used together with varved sediment archives, online sediment trapping will facilitate the interpretation of paleoclimatic proxy records and modeling of detailed weather and erosion conditions that are related to climate change.",Ultra-High-Resolution Monitoring of the Catchment Response to Changing Weather Conditions Using Online Sediment Trapping,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+393476,"Arctic tundra soils store large amounts of carbon (C) in organic soil layers hundreds to thousands of years old that insulate, and in some cases maintain, permafrost soils(1,2). Fire has been largely absent from most of this biome since the early Holocene epoch(3), but its frequency and extent are increasing, probably in response to climate warming(4). The effect of fires on the C balance of tundra landscapes, however, remains largely unknown. The Anaktuvuk River fire in 2007 burned 1,039 square kilometres of Alaska's Arctic slope, making it the largest fire on record for the tundra biome and doubling the cumulative area burned since 1950 (ref. 5). Here we report that tundra ecosystems lost 2,016 +/- 435 g C m(-2) in the fire, an amount two orders of magnitude larger than annual net C exchange in undisturbed tundra(6). Sixty per cent of this C loss was from soil organic matter, and radiocarbon dating of residual soil layers revealed that the maximum age of soil C lost was 50 years. Scaled to the entire burned area, the fire released approximately 2.1 teragrams of C to the atmosphere, an amount similar in magnitude to the annual net C sink for the entire Arctic tundra biome averaged over the last quarter of the twentieth century(7). The magnitude of ecosystem C lost by fire, relative to both ecosystem and biome-scale fluxes, demonstrates that a climate-driven increase in tundra fire disturbance may represent a positive feedback, potentially offsetting Arctic greening(8) and influencing the net C balance of the tundra biome.",Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundra wildfire,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+209390,"This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5-20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10-30 days in the spring period. Estonia's average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.","The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+311976,"Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total lizard abundance and cohort-specific abundance have changed over time, and how total and cohort-specific abundance relate to climate variables including those predicted to make the species vulnerable to climate change (i.e. temperatures exceeding preferred body temperature). We documented a decrease in lizard abundance over the last 40 years, and changes in the local climate. Population growth rate was related to the previous years' southern oscillation index; increasing following cooler-wetter, la nina years, decreasing following warmer-drier, el nino years. Within-year recruitment was negatively related to rainfall and minimum temperature. This study simultaneously identified climatic factors driving long-termpopulation fluctuations and climate variables influencing short-term annual recruitment, both of which may be contributing to the population decline and influence the population's future persistence.","Long-Term Data Reveal a Population Decline of the Tropical Lizard Anolis apletophallus, and a Negative Affect of El Nino Years on Population Growth Rate",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1525247,"The burden of malaria in countries in sub-Saharan Africa has declined with scaling up of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. To assess the contribution of specific malaria interventions and other general factors in bringing about these changes, we reviewed studies that have reported recent changes in the incidence or prevalence of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. Malaria control in southern Africa (South Africa, Mozambique, and Swaziland) began in the 1980s and has shown substantial, lasting declines linked to scale-up of specific interventions. In The Horn of Africa, Ethiopia and Eritrea have also experienced substantial decreases in the burden of malaria linked to the introduction of malaria control measures. Substantial increases in funding for malaria control and the procurement and distribution of effective means for prevention and treatment are associated with falls in malaria burden. In central Africa, little progress has been documented, possibly because of publication bias. In some countries a decline in malaria incidence began several years before scale-up of malaria control. In other countries, the change from a failing drug (chloroquine) to a more effective drug (sulphadoxine plus pyrimethamine or an artemisinin combination) led to immediate improvements; in others malaria reduction seemed to be associated with the scale-up of insecticide-treated bednets and indoor residual spraying.",Changes in the burden of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+760740,"Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism for populations to buffer themselves from environmental change. While it has long been appreciated that natural populations possess genetic variation in the extent of plasticity, a surge of recent evidence suggests that epigenetic variation could also play an important role in shaping phenotypic responses. Compared with genetic variation, epigenetic variation is more likely to have higher spontaneous rates of mutation and a more sensitive reaction to environmental inputs. In our review, we first provide an overview of recent studies on epigenetically encoded thermal plasticity in animals to illustrate environmentally-mediated epigenetic effects within and across generations. Second, we discuss the role of epigenetic effects during adaptation by exploring population epigenetics in natural animal populations. Finally, we evaluate the evolutionary potential of epigenetic variation depending on its autonomy from genetic variation and its transgenerational stability. Although many of the causal links between epigenetic variation and phenotypic plasticity remain elusive, new data has explored the role of epigenetic variation in facilitating evolution in natural populations. This recent progress in ecological epigenetics will be helpful for generating predictive models of the capacity of organisms to adapt to changing climates.",Epigenetics in natural animal populations,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+536182,"Background: In nature, insects have evolved behavioural and physiological adaptations to cope with short term exposure to extreme temperatures. Extreme heat events may increase as a result of climate change; this in turn will affect insect population dynamics. We examined the effect of abrupt and ecologically relevant gradual exposure to high temperatures on the survival and hsp70 gene expression in diamondback moth (DBM) adults and the parasitoid Diadegma insulare, as well as in parasitized and non-parasitized DBM larvae. Principal Findings: Tolerance to high temperatures in DBM adults was higher than in D. insulare adults. There was no difference in the survival of DBM adults between abrupt and ramped increases from 25 to 38 degrees C; however, at 40 degrees C survival was higher when the temperature increased gradually. In contrast, more D. insulare adults survived when the temperature was ramped rather than shifted abruptly to both 38 and 40 degrees C. There was no heat stress effect of up to 40 degrees C on the survival of either parasitized or non-parasitized DBM larvae. In adults of both species, more hsp70 expression was observed when temperatures increased abruptly to 38 degrees C compared to ramping. In contrast, at 40 degrees C significantly more expression was found in insects exposed to the ramping rather than the abrupt regime. Hsp70 expression level was in agreement with adult survival data and appears to be a good indicator of stress levels. In parasitized and non-parasitized larvae, hsp70 expression was significantly higher after abrupt shifts compared to ramping at both temperatures. Conclusions/Significance: Hsp70 gene expression was responsive to extreme temperatures in both DBM and D. insulare, which may underlie the ability of these insects to survive in extreme temperatures. Survival and hsp70 expression upon abrupt changes are distinctly different from those after ramping indicating that experimental protocol must be considered before extrapolating laboratory results to natural field situations.",Survival and Hsp70 Gene Expression in Plutella xylostella and Its Larval Parasitoid Diadegma insulare Varied between Slowly Ramping and Abrupt Extreme Temperature Regimes,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+286762,"Permafrost wetlands are one of the most sensitive plant communities in response to global warming. Global warming could induce natural plant communities to shift into cooler climate zones, or extirpate. To understand how plant communities in permafrost wetlands are affected by global warming, we examined the patterns of plant species diversity in the 24 permafrost wetlands in the Great Hing'an Mountains along a latitudinal gradient. This gradient was characterized by a northward decline in mean annual temperature (Delta= 3.5 degrees C) and mean annual precipitation (Delta= 38.7 mm). Our results indicated that latitudinal patterns in species diversity existed in the permafrost wetlands. The numbers of family, genus and species, the Gleason index and Shannon-Wiener index for shrubs decreased linearly with decreasing latitude, but increased for herbaceous plants. The latitudinal patterns in species diversity had influenced strongly by temperature. Simple linear regression yielded about 2 decreases in shrub number and 9 increases in herbaceous species number with an increase of mean annual temperature by 1 degrees C, with 0.33 decreases in shrub diversity and 0.29 increases in herbaceous species diversity. If temperature warms 3.7 degrees C by 2100, herbaceous plants might increase in the permafrost wetlands, with species number increasing 48% or 6 times and species diversity increasing 40% or 2 times; and some shrub species might decrease and even disappear in part of the areas with lower latitude, with species number decreasing 50-100% and species diversity decreasing 69-100%. The permafrost wetlands in the Great Hing'an Mountains might continue degenerating and shift northward with global warming over the next century.","Latitudinal Pattern in Species Diversity and its Response to Global Warming in Permafrost Wetlands in the Great Hing'an Mountains, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2358920,"The plant Thymus is one of the largest and the most famous genus of Lamiacae. Thymus species are commonly used as herbal tea, condiment, spice and medicinal plants. Thymus daenensis Celak is an endemic species grown in Iran. The production of secondary metabolites in different ecosystems is affected by genetic and environmental factors. This study was conducted to determine variation of plant properties and effect of ecological factors on plant properties in different populations of T. daenensis in different regions of Iran (Isfahan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Provinces) on April to June 2009. The results showed that height plant and date of flowering between populations of T. daenensis had significant difference (P <= 0.05). Also, our investigation showed that there is a positive and linear relationship between content of thymol as major component with elevation. So we can conclude that the best place for the production of quantity effective materials this plant in order to attain the best results, is the height between 2400 to 2800 m above sea level.",Diversity of Thymus daenensis Celak in Central and West of Iran,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+516944,"Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980-2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10 % (1.10 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69 % (95 % CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0 A degrees C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat's intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45-64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks.","Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980-2010",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+36675,"In this study, the calibration and validation period with stable underlying surface conditions was determined by using a statistically significant change point of the annual streamflow in several catchments of the Wei River basin (WRB). The effects of climate changes and human activities on streamflow were estimated by using the sensitivity-based method and the dynamic water balance model, respectively. The contributions of climate effects and human activities effects on streamflow were also investigated. The results showed that almost all the catchments exhibited significant decreasing trend of streamflow in the early 1990s. The streamflow was more sensitive to changes in precipitation than changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET). Effects of climate due to changes in precipitation and PET are weak in Linjiacun, Weijiabao and Xianyang catchments, while it is strong in the catchments controlled by other hydrological stations, accounting for more than 40 % of streamflow reduction. Effects of human activities on streamflow in Linjiacun, Weijiabao, Xianyang and Zhangjiashan catchments accounted for more than 50 % of the streamflow reduction. The study provides scientific foundation to understand the causes of water resources scarcity and useful information for the planning and management of water resources in the ecological fragile arid area.","Identification of Streamflow Response to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Wei River Basin, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+89815,"Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.",Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1822687,"Here we analyzed the relation between recruitment dynamic (recruitment or recruitment success) and temperature of 57 commercial fish stocks of the North Atlantic. We showed that, although the effect of temperature was generally significant, spawning biomass is the main factor governing recruitment dynamic. A significant effect of spawning biomass was evident for 67% of all stocks analyzed in this study. For gadoids, the effect of spawning biomass was larger than the effect of temperature (both in terms of number of stocks and proportion of variance explained). For clupeids, spawning biomass was more important than temperature for a higher number of stocks, but the strength of the two effects, when present, was similar. Also, stocks living in colder and warmer areas showed, respectively, a positive and negative response to temperature for both families. Our results highlight that failing to account for spawning biomass effect in climate-recruitment studies could mask the influence of climate variability on recruitment dynamic. In this context, although management of several exploited fish populations cannot be entirely decoupled from the effect of climate on stock reproductive success, it is likely that the observed changes in exploited fish population dynamics are mainly the consequences of an unsustainable human impact and not climate changes.",Disentangling the Effect of Adult Biomass and Temperature on the Recruitment Dynamics of Fishes,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2350802,"Undaria pinnatifida and Sargassum muticum are the most abundant invasive edible algae species that have colonized the hard substrate around Venice. The contents of Ca, Mg, Fe, Zn, Cu, Mn, Sr, Pb, Cr, Al, Co, Cd, Ni, As, Hg and Ba, were investigated by ICP-MS in seaweed samples collected (Spring 2013) in six different sites of Venice. A correlation analysis of the results was performed. Sargassum muticum exhibited overall higher contents than U. pinnatifida for many of the considered elements. The elemental contents in both species were in ranges comparable to those reported for seaweeds subjected to anthropogenic impact. Considering the French legislation as a working reference for Pb, Cd and inorganic As limits for seaweed for human consumption, the present results pointed out that in both species Pb content was on average higher than the French limits, whereas the Cd and Hg contents were much lower than the same legislation limits.",Metals in Undaria pinnatifida (Harvey) Suringar and Sargassum muticum (Yendo) Fensholt edible seaweeds growing around Venice (Italy),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1448300,"There is a lack of observed data-based studies examining the role of enhanced soil moisture conditions (due to irrigation) on the prevailing precipitation. Therefore, in the present study, we have examined the impacts of the Green Revolution (GR) related expansion of irrigation and changes in dry season (the rabi (November to May) and the zaid (March to June)) precipitation in India. The results for some regions indicated decreasing and increasing trend in precipitation during the pre- and post-GR periods, respectively. For example, in eastern Madhya Pradesh, the pre- and post-GR precipitation trends for the zaid season were -0.45 and 2.40 mm year(-1), respectively. On the other hand, some regions reported lower rate of decline in precipitation during the post-GR period. This paper suggests that both positive and lower declining trend during the post-GR period were linked to increased precipitation due to the introduction of irrigation. The study has found up to 69 mm (121%) increase in total amount of precipitation for growing seasons during the post-GR period. Moreover, a 175% increase in average precipitation was also recorded. All irrigated regions show a notable increase in precipitation during post-GR growing seasons. It was found that differences in growing season average precipitation between the pre- and post-GR periods were statistically significant for most of the regions. For further verification of results, the MM5 and Noah land surface model were applied. These applications show changes in precipitation and various precipitation controlling factors due to changes in soil moisture.",Impacts of irrigation on dry season precipitation in India,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+231045,"A global warming of 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 degrees C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North-South (West-East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models' climate sensitivity.",The European climate under a 2 degrees C global warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+792648,"Groundwater-dependent ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to groundwater decline. The South East of South Australia has experienced considerable hydrological change due to drainage, clearance of native vegetation, irrigated agriculture, and forestry. Recent hardwood plantings in the Limestone Coast Prescribed Wells Area have increased considerably since 2000, coincident with groundwater decline; however, the introduction of hardwood plantations coincided with a period of lower than average rainfall. Given the economic implications of modifying water allocation policy based on apparent anthropogenic causes, establishing the contributions to the observed declines in groundwater level was necessary. The water balance shows a net gain in water across the entire Lower Limestone Coast Prescribed Wells Area, yet sites with forestry land use show the water table has been declining at a rate up to 0.7 m yr(-1) since 2004, whereas no long-term change has occurred in the water table depth at adjacent pasture sites. Forested areas have 4050 wetlands at risk with groundwater decline >0.3 m yr(-1), covering a total wetland area of of 212 km(2). A series of 15 policy scenarios were simulated using a groundwater flow model to examine how climate, land use, and particularly forestry would impact groundwater, with an imperative to enact policy to protect remaining wetlands. Water allocation policy accounted for groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture, but other activities, such as forestry, were not considered in water allocation even though they were found to be a major water user. Following this study, the South Australian Government amended its Natural Resources Management act to stipulate that forestry must have a water licence and a water allocation to account for water used by the forest.",Integrated science informs forest and water allocation policies in the South East of Australia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1599,"Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakala silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawaii, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 12 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses.",Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+164087,"There has been considerable debate on the existence of trends in climate in the highlands of East Africa and hypotheses about their potential effect on the trends in malaria in the region. We apply a new robust trend test to mean temperature time series data from three editions of the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit database (CRU TS) for several relevant locations. We find significant trends in the data extracted from newer editions of the database but not in the older version for periods ending in 1996. The trends in the newer data are even more significant when post-1996 data are added to the samples. We also test for trends in the data from the Kericho meteorological station prepared by Omumbo et al. We find no significant trend in the 1979-1995 period but a highly significant trend in the full 1979-2009 sample. However, although the malaria cases observed at Kericho, Kenya rose during a period of resurgent epidemics (1994-2002) they have since returned to a low level. A large assembly of parasite rate surveys from the region, stratified by altitude, show that this decrease in malaria prevalence is not limited to Kericho.",Temperature and Malaria Trends in Highland East Africa,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+701120,"We have applied the TEX86 paleothermometer to produce a surface water temperature record for Lake Malawi spanning the past 700 years. Over much of the record temperature fluctuates from similar to 24-27 degrees C with a mean of similar to 25 degrees C however, there has been a substantial increase in temperature of similar to 2.0 degrees C during the past similar to 100 years. The TEX86 temperature record reveals a strong similarity to the instrumental record: both records demonstrate warming (similar to 0.7-1.4 degrees C) over the past similar to 50 years as well as a cooling anomaly around 1959. Comparison of the TEX86 temperature record with the proxy records of primary productivity suggests that wind induced upwelling and/or precipitation have a strong influence on the surface temperature of Lake Malawi. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Organic geochemical records of environmental variability in Lake Malawi during the last 700 years, Part I: The TEX86 temperature record",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1287358,"In climate change ecology, simplistic research approaches may yield unrealistically simplistic answers to often more complicated problems. In particular, the complexity of vegetation responses to global climate change begs a better understanding of the impacts of concomitant changes in several climatic drivers, how these impacts vary across different climatic contexts, and of the demographic processes underlying population changes. Using a replicated, factorial, whole-community transplant experiment, we investigated regional variation in demographic responses of plant populations to increased temperature and/or precipitation. Across four perennial forb species and 12 sites, we found strong responses to both temperature and precipitation change. Changes in population growth rates were mainly due to changes in survival and clonality. In three of the four study species, the combined increase in temperature and precipitation reflected nonadditive, antagonistic interactions of the single climatic changes for population growth rate and survival, while the interactions were additive and synergistic for clonality. This disparity affects the persistence of genotypes, but also suggests that the mechanisms behind the responses of the vital rates differ. In addition, survival effects varied systematically with climatic context, with wetter and warmer+wetter transplants showing less positive or more negative responses at warmer sites. The detailed demographic approach yields important mechanistic insights into how concomitant changes in temperature and precipitation affect plants, which makes our results generalizable beyond the four study species. Our comprehensive study design illustrates the power of replicated field experiments in disentangling the complex relationships and patterns that govern climate change impacts across real-world species and landscapes.",The devil is in the detail: Nonadditive and context-dependent plant population responses to increasing temperature and precipitation,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+352624,"Unlike Oceanic islands, the islands of the Arctic Sea are not completely isolated from migration by terrestrial vertebrates. The pack ice connects many Arctic Sea islands to the mainland during winter months. The Arctic fox (Alopex lagopus), which has a circumpolar distribution, populates numerous islands in the Arctic Sea. In this study, we used genetic data from 20 different populations, spanning the entire distribution of the Arctic fox, to identify barriers to dispersal. Specifically, we considered geographical distance, occurrence of sea ice, winter temperature, ecotype, and the presence of red fox and polar bear as nonexclusive factors that influence the dispersal behaviour of individuals. Using distance-based redundancy analysis and the BIOENV procedure, we showed that occurrence of sea ice is the key predictor and explained 40-60% of the genetic distance among populations. In addition, our analysis identified the Commander and Pribilof Islands Arctic populations as genetically unique suggesting they deserve special attention from a conservation perspective.",Sea ice occurrence predicts genetic isolation in the Arctic fox,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+191815,"Background Saltmarshes are extremely valuable but often overlooked ecosystems, contributing to livelihoods locally and globally through the associated ecosystem services they provide, including fish production, carbon storage and coastal protection. Despite their importance, knowledge of the current spatial distribution (occurrence and extent) of saltmarshes is incomplete. In light of increasing anthropogenic and environmental pressures on coastal ecosystems, global data on the occurrence and extent of saltmarshes are needed to draw attention to these critical ecosystems and to the benefits they generate for people. Such data can support resource management, strengthen decision-making and facilitate tracking of progress towards global conservation targets set by multilateral environmental agreements, such as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets of the United Nations' (UN's) Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020, the Sustainable Development Goals of the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Ramsar Convention. New information Here, we present the most complete dataset on saltmarsh occurrence and extent at the global scale. This dataset collates 350,985 individual occurrences of saltmarshes and presents the first global estimate of their known extent. The dataset captures locational and contextual data for saltmarsh in 99 countries worldwide. A total of 5,495,089 hectares of mapped saltmarsh across 43 countries and territories are represented in a Geographic Information Systems polygon shapefile. This estimate is at the relatively low end of previous estimates (2.2-40 Mha), however, we took the conservative approach in the mapping exercise and there are notable areas in Canada, Northern Russia, South America and Africa where saltmarshes are known to occur that require additional spatial data. Nevertheless, the most extensive saltmarsh worldwide are found outside the tropics, notably including the low-lying, ice-free coasts, bays and estuaries of the North Atlantic which are well represented in our global polygon dataset. Therefore, despite the gaps, we believe that, while incomplete, our global polygon data cover many of the important areas in Europe, the USA and Australia. © Mcowen C et al.",A global map of saltmarshes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3972037,"Polar mesoscale cyclones are intense vortices that form in cold, marine air masses poleward of major jet streams and frontal zones. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) should be considered as a potential tool for the study of polar mesoscale cyclones because of its ability to remotely sense, at least qualitatively, the high-resolution near-surface wind field independent of daylight and atmospheric conditions. Four case studies demonstrating this ability are presented. SAR imagery from the Canadian Space Agency's RADARSAT are compared to corresponding infrared imagery, surface analyses, and upper-air analyses. In three of the four case studies, it is argued that the addition of SAR imagery to the process of generating a manual surface analysis would have led to a better product. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the SAR imagery reveals a host of marine-meteorological phenomena in the vicinity of the polar mesoscale cyclones including atmospheric gravity waves, roll vortices, and cellular convection. Because of the high-resolution attributes of SAR imagery, SAR shows promise to aid the forecaster and researcher in the study of marine-meteorological phenomena such as polar mesoscale cyclones.",Synthetic aperture radar as a tool for investigating polar mesoscale cyclones,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2354022,"The existence of significant trend and change point in the aridity index (AI), precipitation, and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was evaluated using the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, respectively, over 22 semi-arid, humid, and sub-humid sites of Iran during 1966-2012. Detrending method was also employed to quantify each factor's contribution to the AI and ET0 trends. The ET0 and AI sensitivity to their input perturbations was analyzed using a derivative sensitivity coefficient. The results indicated a downward trend in precipitation and AI and an upward trend in ET0 on both seasonal and annual scales for majority of sites. Compared with AI and precipitation, more significant change points were detected, mainly during the 1990s, in the ET0 series. Except for wintertime, solar radiation (SR) was found as the most sensitive factor on the AI and ET0 dynamics in the semi-arid regions. However, with an exception for summertime, AI and ET0 exhibited greater sensitivity to the RH changes followed by the SR changes in the humid/sub-humid areas. For more than 70% of semi-arid stations and Gorgan (a sub-humid location), wind speed (U) was the most important variable contributing to seasonal and annual ET0 trends. However, the ET0 trend was primarily caused by the mean temperature (Tmean) changes for the humid environments. Further, the precipitation changes made the largest contribution to seasonal and annual AI trends for most cases followed by the U changes. An integrated water resource management is required to be implemented to reduce negative impacts of decreased AI and ET0 increment over Iran.","Spatiotemporal changes in aridity index and reference evapotranspiration over semi-arid and humid regions of Iran: trend, cause, and sensitivity analyses",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1822798,"In recent years, soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] has emerged as a major rainy season cash crop in central India. In the present study, the changes in soybean scenario over a period from 2001 to 2013 of Indore district and Madhya Pradesh since 1980 with respect to area sown, production, and productivity are discussed, taking in consideration the changes in climatic variables like rainfall and temperature during the corresponding period. The data related to area, production, and yield of soybean from 2001 to 2013 of Indore district, Madhya Pradesh since 1980, and India were collected from published work. To observe yield changes across seasons, the means of the yield were plotted against the seasons. It was observed that in last 10 years, there is a shift in the peak rainfall from July to August, and the total rainfall during the peak month was reduced. The rainfall during the emergence and vegetative growth of the soybean crop has been reduced. However, the soybean productivity has increased with 21.6 and 13.9 kg/ha/year in Indore district and in Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Release of new cultivars and improvements in farming technology have contributed to this continuous increase in soybean yield. A few studies showed that potential adaptation options for sustained soybean productivity in India include adjustment in cropping calendar and crop rotation, development and promotion of use of high yielding varieties, and sustainable technological applications. Delayed sowing date for soybean crop at all locations in India should be most effective in mitigating the thermal effects of climate change.",Growth and Yield Responses of Soybean to Climate Change,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+148408,"Previous research on the effects of tree species on soil processes has focused primarily on the role of leaf litter inputs and relatively few studies have considered the importance of plant roots and their associated ecological processes, especially under climate change. We therefore conducted an experiment to compare the impacts of two coniferous species via roots on soil N transformations and their responses to experimental warming using infrared heaters in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau. The infrared heater on average enhanced both air temperature and soil temperature by 2.0 degrees C and 3.7 degrees C, respectively. Warming did not affect soil organic C (SOC), total N (TN), microbial biomass C (MBC) and N (MBN), or their ratios (MBC/MBN) in both coniferous species plots. Effects of experimental warming on soil N availability varied with tree species and sampling dates. There were higher NO3- and lower NH4- concentrations in the Picea asperata than in the Abies faxoniana plots irrespective of warming treatment or sampling date, possibly caused by higher gross nitrification and denitrification rates in the P. asperata. Experimental warming significantly increased the net mineralization, net nitrification and denitrification rates on most sampling times in both species plots. Responses of gross nitrification to experimental warming significantly differed between the two species, and depended strongly on seasons. Gross nitrification and denitrification rates were markedly greater in the P. asperata than in the A. faxoniana plots, with P. asperata being more sensitive than A. faxoniana in response to experimental warming. Differences in the root morphology (i.e., root length, root type) and activity (i.e., root exudation, fine root vigor) between the two species could be largely responsible for the variation in the soil N cycling and its response to experimental warming. Taken together, our results indicate that tree species can differ in their effects on soil transformations and nutrient availability via roots and associated microbial processes. Further research is required regarding the exact mechanisms of tree species effects via roots on soil processes and function under climate change. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Effects of experimental warming on soil N transformations of two coniferous species, Eastern Tibetan Plateau, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+422192,"Many species are expanding at their leading-edge range boundaries in response to climate warming. Species are known to respond individualistically to climate change, but there has been little consideration of whether responses are consistent over time. We compared responses of 37 southerly distributed British butterflies over two study periods, first between 19701982 and 19951999 and then between 19951999 and 20052009, when mean annual temperature increased regionally by 0.03 similar to degrees C similar to yr-1 (a significant rate of increase) and 0.01 similar to degrees C similar to yr-1(a nonsignificant increase) respectively. Our study species might be expected to benefit from climate warming. We measured three responses to climate to investigate this; changes in range margin, distribution area and abundance. In general, the responses of species were inconsistent over time. Species that increased their distribution areas during the first period tended to do so again during the second period, but the relationship was weak. Changes in range margins and abundance were not consistent. In addition, only 5/37 species showed qualitatively similar responses in all three response variables over time (three species increased and two species declined in all variables in both periods). Overall rates of range expansion and distribution area change were significantly greater in the second study period, despite the lower rate of warming, perhaps due to species exploiting climate-distribution lags remaining from the earlier, warmer period. However, there was a significantly greater decline in abundance during the second study period, so range expansions northwards were not necessarily accompanied by increases in distribution area and/or abundance. Hence, species ranges have been thinning as they have expanded northwards. The idiosyncratic responses of these species likely reflect the balance of climatic and habitat drivers of species distribution and abundance changes.",Temporal variation in responses of species to four decades of climate warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+102878,"The interactive effects of ocean acidification (OA) and parasitic infection have the potential to alter the performance of many marine organisms. Parasitic infection can affect host organisms' response to abiotic stressors, and vice versa, while the response of marine organisms to stressors associated with OA can vary within and between taxonomic groups (host or parasite). Accordingly, it seems likely that the combination of infection stress and the novel stressors associated with OA could alter previously stable host-parasite interactions. This study is a detailed investigation into the changes to shell growth, dissolution, and tensile strength in the New Zealand mud snail Zeacumantus subcarinatus caused by trematode infection in combination with exposure to simulated OA conditions. This study also tests the effects of reduced pH on snails infected by 3 different trematode species to investigate potential species-specific effects of infection. After a 90 d exposure to 3 pH treatments (pH 8.1, 7.6, and 7.4), acidified seawater caused significant reductions in shell growth, length, and tensile strength in all snails. Trematode infected snails displayed increased shell growth and dissolution and reduced shell strength relative to uninfected conspecifics. In all measured variables, there were also significant differences between snails maintained at the same pH but infected by different species of parasite. These results indicate that parasitic infection has the potential to alter host organisms' response to OA and that the magnitude of this effect varies among parasite species.",Interactive effects of parasitic infection and ocean acidification on the calcification of a marine gastropod,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+356435,"Coral bleaching, during which corals lose their symbiotic dinoflagellates, typically corresponds with periods of intense heat stress, and appears to be increasing in frequency and geographic extent as the climate warms. A fundamental question in coral reef ecology is whether chronic local stress reduces coral resistance and resilience from episodic stress such as bleaching, or alternatively promotes acclimatization, potentially increasing resistance and resilience. Here we show that following a major bleaching event, Montastraea faveolata coral growth rates at sites with higher local anthropogenic stressors remained suppressed for at least 8 years, while coral growth rates at sites with lower stress recovered in 2-3 years. Instead of promoting acclimatization, our data indicate that background stress reduces coral fitness and resilience to episodic events. We also suggest that reducing chronic stress through local coral reef management efforts may increase coral resilience to global climate change.",Local Stressors Reduce Coral Resilience to Bleaching,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1783314,"Soil carbon dioxide efflux is impacted by urbanization but few studies have directly examined it in contrasting human-dominated land uses. We tested the hypothesis that soil carbon dioxide efflux would be greater in residential lawns than corn fields in Lancaster County, PA, by measuring soil carbon dioxide efflux, soil temperature, and soil moisture once a week for 10 wk in the fall of 2011. Soil carbon dioxide efflux occurring in residential lawns was significantly higher (F-1,F-6 = 7.46, p = 0.034) than the levels in corn (Zea mays L.) fields for the duration of the study. Soil carbon dioxide efflux significantly decreased over time in both land-use types (F-9,F-54 = 37.34, p < 0.001). Soil temperature, soil moisture, and land-use type significantly contributed to the efflux (R-2 = 0.744, F-3,F-76 = 73.443, p < 0.001). Higher soil temperatures in residential lawns were attributed to an urban heat island. Our results suggest converting agricultural land to residential developments could increase soil carbon dioxide release per unit area of soil, especially if urbanization increases local soil temperatures.",Comparison of Soil Carbon Dioxide Efflux between Residential Lawns and Corn Fields,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2265496,"Droughts occur naturally, but climate change has generally accelerated the hydrological processes to make them set in quicker and become more intense, with many consequences, not the least of which is increased wildfire risk. There are different types of drought being studied, such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic droughts; however, a lack of unanimous definition complicates drought study. Drought indices are used as proxies to track and quantify droughts; therefore, accurate formulation of robust drought indices is important to investigate drought characteristics under the warming climate. Because different drought indices show different degrees of sensitivity to the same level of continental warming, robustness of drought indices against change in temperature and other variables should be prioritized. A formulation of drought indices without considering the factors that govern the background state may lead to drought artifacts under a warming climate. Consideration of downscaling techniques, availability of climate data, estimation of potential evapotranspiration (PET), baseline period, non-stationary climate information, and anthropogenic forcing can be additional challenges for a reliable drought assessment under climate change. As one formulation of PET based on temperatures can lead to overestimation of future drying, estimation of PET based on the energy budget framework can be a better approach compared to only temperature-based equations. Although the performance of drought indicators can be improved by incorporating reliable soil moisture estimates, a challenge arises due to limited reliable observed data for verification. Moreover, the uncertainties associated with meteorological forcings in hydrological models can lead to unreliable soil moisture estimates under climate change scenarios.",Climate Change and Drought: a Perspective on Drought Indices,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+746510,"A remarkably long period of Northern Hemispheric cooling in the 6(th) century CE, which disrupted human societies across large parts of the globe, has been attributed to volcanic forcing of climate. A major tropical eruption in 540 CE is thought to have played a key role, but there is no consensus about the source volcano to date. Here, we present evidence for El Chichon in southern Mexico as the most likely candidate, based on a refined reconstruction of the volcano's eruption history. A new chronological framework, derived from distal tephra deposits and the world's largest Holocene beach ridge plain along the Gulf of Mexico, enabled us to positively link a major explosive event to a prominent volcanic sulfur spike in bipolar ice core records, dated at 540 CE. We speculate that voluminous tephra fall from the eruption had a severe environmental impact on Maya societies, leading to temporary cultural decline, site abandonment, and migration within the core area of Maya civilization.",Explosive eruption of El Chichon volcano (Mexico) disrupted 6th century Maya civilization and contributed to global cooling,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+40680,"While a few North Atlantic cod stocks are stable, none have increased and many have declined in recent years. Although overfishing is the main cause of most observed declines, this study shows that in some regions, climate by its influence on plankton may exert a strong control on cod stocks, complicating the management of this species that often assumes a constant carrying capacity. First, we investigate the likely drivers of changes in the cod stock in the North Sea by evaluating the potential relationships between climate, plankton and cod. We do this by deriving a Plankton Index that reflects the quality and quantity of plankton food available for larval cod. We show that this Plankton Index explains 46.24% of the total variance in cod recruitment and 68.89% of the variance in total cod biomass. Because the effects of climate act predominantly through plankton during the larval stage of cod development, our results indicate a pronounced sensitivity of cod stocks to climate at the warmer, southern edge of their distribution, for example in the North Sea. Our analyses also reveal for the first time, that at a large basin scale, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus is associated with a high probability of cod occurrence, whereas the genus Pseudocalanus appears less important. Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) generally considers the effect of fishing on the ecosystem and not the effect of climate-induced changes in the ecosystem state for the living resources. These results suggest that EBFM must consider the position of a stock within its ecological niche, the direct effects of climate and the influence of climate on the trophodynamics of the ecosystem.","Climate, plankton and cod",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1532987,"Temporal changes in daily precipitation observed at more than 2300 stations in Germany during the second half of the 20th century are analysed. Compared to other studies, this analysis is based on a very high spatial density of observation locations and complete areal coverage of Germany. Changes in four precipitation characteristics are investigated: (1) total amount of seasonal and monthly precipitation, (2) mean and 95% quantile (q95) of daily precipitation, (3) transition probabilities to quantify wet and dry spells, and (4) precipitation amounts for a 7-day event with return period 100 years. For all parameters, strikingly clear trend patterns in space and time (of the year) emerged. Stations with increasing and decreasing trends are never found in direct neighbourhood, but are well separated from each other. Changes are season and even month specific. These clear spatial and temporal patterns are an expression of the organization of precipitation mechanisms over Germany. These findings add a note of caution in regard to trend analyses: Spatially and temporally aggregated trend studies might not disclose the complete range of changes and might miss important details. Interestingly, the variability of daily precipitation has changed in parallel with the mean behaviour: Those regions and seasons that show an increase in mean show also an increase in standard deviation, leading to a disproportional increase in heavy precipitation. In addition, there is a tendency towards higher persistence, in particular, longer wet spells in winter, spring, and autumn, and longer dry spells in summer. If these trends continue, there will be an increasing potential for floods in winter and spring, and increasing problems for water availability in summer in regions that show signs of water stress today.",High spatial and temporal organization of changes in precipitation over Germany for 1951-2006,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+45972,"To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century.",Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+8523,"The common vole, considered a rodent pest when overabundant in agricultural areas, was traditionally absent from the agricultural plains of Castilla-y-Len, NW Spain. However, it rapidly invaded ca. 50.000 km(2) of agricultural land, where regular outbreaks have caused crop damages and conflict with farmers. To better understand the factors that triggered this massive invasion of previously unoccupied habitats, we studied the associations between the common vole range expansion and changes in climate and land uses in the region since the 1970s. We found long-term trends in climate, with some changes that could have helped the range expansion (increased fall precipitation and winter temperature) and other changes that may have impaired it (reduced summer precipitation and increased summer temperatures). Dramatic changes in land use also took place prior to and during the invasion period (marked increases in irrigated and green herbaceous crops such as alfalfa, which are preferred habitats for voles). We found strong associations between changes in vole distribution and the extent of green crops (irrigated crops and alfalfa) at regional level. The colonization probability of a given agrarian county increased with the extent of green crops, particularly so when vole presence in neighbouring counties was lower, and tended to decrease with increasing livestock abundance. Land use changes, especially increases in irrigated crops and alfalfa, appear to be amongst the main drivers behind the vole range expansion. We discuss these findings in relation to the social conflicts and management challenges that arose from the recent invasion of agricultural areas by crop-damaging common voles.",Factors associated with the colonization of agricultural areas by common voles Microtus arvalis in NW Spain,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+173924,"The recession of mountain glaciers around the world has been linked to anthropogenic climate change and small glaciers (e.g. <2 km(2)) are thought to be particularly vulnerable, with reports of their disappearance from several regions. However, the response of small glaciers to climate change can be modulated by non-climatic factors such as topography and debris cover and there remain a number of regions where their recent change has evaded scrutiny. This paper presents results of the first multi-year remote sensing survey of glaciers in the Kodar Mountains, the only glaciers in SE Siberia, which we compare to previous glacier inventories from this continental setting that reported total glacier areas of 18.8 km(2) in ca. 1963 (12.6 km(2) of exposed ice) and 15.5 km(2) in 1974 (12 km(2) of exposed ice). Mapping their debris-covered termini is difficult but delineation of debris-free ice on Landsat imagery reveals 34 glaciers with a total area of 11.72 +/- 0.72 km(2) in 1995, followed by a reduction to 9.53 +/- 029 km(2) in 2001 and 7.01 +/- 0.23 km(2) in 2010. This represents a similar to 44% decrease in exposed glacier ice between ca. 1963 and 2010, but with 40% lost since 1995 and with individual glaciers losing as much as 93% of their exposed ice. Thus, although continental glaciers are generally thought to be less sensitive than their maritime counterparts, a recent acceleration in shrinkage of exposed ice has taken place and we note its coincidence with a strong summer warming trend in the region initiated at the start of the 1980s. Whilst smaller and shorter glaciers have, proportionally, tended to shrink more rapidly, we find no statistically significant relationship between shrinkage and elevation characteristics, aspect or solar radiation. This is probably due to the small sample size, limited elevation range, and topographic setting of the glaciers in deep valleys-heads. Furthermore, many of the glaciers possess debris-covered termini and it is likely that the ablation of buried ice is lagging the shrinkage of exposed ice, such that a growth in the proportion of debris cover is occurring, as observed elsewhere. If recent trends continue, we hypothesise that glaciers could evolve into a type of rock glacier within the next few decades, introducing additional complexity in their response and delaying their potential demise. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Accelerated loss of alpine glaciers in the Kodar Mountains, south-eastern Siberia",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+869887,"Mining for resources extraction may lead to geological and associated environmental changes due to ground movements, collision with mining cavities, and deformation of aquifers. Geological changes may continue in a reclaimed mine area, and the deformed aquifers may entail a breakdown of substrates and an increase in ground water tables, which may cause surface area inundation. Consequently, a reclaimed mine area may experience surface area collapse, i.e., subsidence, and degradation of vegetation productivity. Thus, monitoring short-term landscape dynamics in a reclaimed mine area may provide important information on the long-term geological and environmental impacts of mining activities. We studied landscape dynamics in Kirchheller Heide, Germany, which experienced extensive soil movement due to longwall mining without stowing, using Landsat imageries between 2013 and 2016. A Random Forest image classification technique was applied to analyze land-use and landcover dynamics, and the growth of wetland areas was assessed using a Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA). We also analyzed the changes in vegetation productivity using a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We observed a 19.9% growth of wetland area within four years, with 87.2% growth in the coverage of two major waterbodies in the reclaimed mine area. NDVI values indicate that the productivity of 66.5% of vegetation of the Kirchheller Heide was degraded due to changes in ground water tables and surface flooding. Our results inform environmental management and mining reclamation authorities about the subsidence spots and priority mitigation areas from land surface and vegetation degradation in Kirchheller Heide.",A Remote Sensing Approach to Environmental Monitoring in a Reclaimed Mine Area,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1271812,"Avian influenza virus (AIV) is a major health threat to both avian and human populations. The ecology of the virus is driven by numerous factors, including climate and avian migration patterns, yet relatively little is known about these drivers. Long-distance transport of the virus is tied to inter- and intra-continental bird migration, while enhanced viral reassortment is linked to breeding habitats in Beringia shared by migrant species from North America and Asia. Furthermore, water temperature, pH, salinity, and co-existing biota all impact the viability and persistence of the virus in the environment. Changes in climate can potentially alter the ecology of AIV through multiple pathways. Warming temperatures can change the timing and patterns of bird migration, creating novel assemblages of species and new opportunities for viral transport and reassortment. Water temperature and chemistry may also be altered, resulting in changes in virus survival. In this review, we explain how these shifts have the potential to increase viral persistence, pathogenicity, and transmissibility and amplify the threat of pandemic disease in animal and human hosts. Better understanding of climatic influences on viral ecology is essential to developing strategies to limit adverse health effects in humans and animals.",Avian influenza virus ecology and evolution through a climatic lens,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+94077,"The incidence of escaped agricultural fire has recently been increasing in the Western Amazon, driven by climate variability, land use change, and changes in patterns of residency and land occupation. Preventing and mitigating the negative impacts of fire in the Amazon require a comprehensive understanding not only of what the drivers of fire activity are, but also how these drivers interact and vary across scales. Here, we combine multi-scalar data on land use, climate, and landowner residency to disentangle the drivers of fire activity over 10 years (2001-2010) on individual landholdings in a fire-prone region of the Peruvian Amazon. We examined the relative importance of and interactions between climate variability (drought intensity), land occupation (in particular, landowner absenteeism), and land cover variables (cover of fallow and pasture) for predicting both fire occurrence (whether or not fire was detected on a farm in a given year) and fire size. Drought intensity was the most important predictor of fire occurrence, but land-cover type and degree of landowner absenteeism increased fire probability when conditions were dry enough. On the other hand, drought intensity did not stand out relative to other significant predictors in the fire size model, where degree of landowner absenteeism in a village and percent cover of fallow in a village were also strongly associated with fire size. We also investigated to what extent these variables measured at the individual landholding versus the village scale influenced fire activity. While the predictors measured at the landholding and village scales were approximately of equal importance for modeling fire occurrence, only village scale predictors were important in the model of fire size. These results demonstrate that the relative importance of various drivers of fire activity can vary depending on the scale at which they are measured and the scale of analysis. Additionally, we highlight how a full understanding of the drivers of fire activity should go beyond fire occurrence to consider other metrics of fire activity such as fire size, as implications for fire prevention and mitigation can be different depending on the model considered. Drought early warning systems may be most effective for preventing fire in dry years, but management to address the impacts of landowner absenteeism, such as bolstering community fire control efforts in high-risk areas, could help minimize the size of fires when they do occur. Thus, interventions should focus on minimizing fire size as well as preventing fires altogether, especially because fire is an inexpensive and effective management tool that has been in use for millennia. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Climate, landowner residency, and land cover predict local scale fire activity in the Western Amazon",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1429463,"Fire is one of the most important natural disturbance processes in the western United States and ecosystems differ markedly with respect to their ecological and evolutionary relationships with fire. Reference fire regimes in forested ecosystems can be categorized along a gradient ranging from ""fuel-limited"" to ""climate-limited"" where the former types are often characterized by frequent, lower-severity wildfires and the latter by infrequent, more severe wildfires. Using spatial data on fire severity from 19842011 and metrics related to fire frequency, we tested how divergence from historic (pre-Euroamerican settlement) fire frequencies due to a century of fire suppression influences rates of high-severity fire in five forest types in California. With some variation among bioregions, our results suggest that fires in forest types characterized by fuel-limited fire regimes (e.g., yellow pine and mixed conifer forest) tend to burn with greater proportions of high-severity fire as either time since last fire or the mean modern fire return interval (FRI) increases. Two intermediate fire regime types (mixed evergreen and bigcone Douglas-fir) showed a similar relationship between fire frequency and fire severity. However, red fir and redwood forests, which are characterized by more climate-limited fire regimes, did not show significant positive relationships between FRI and fire severity. This analysis provides strong evidence that for fuel-limited fire regimes, lack of fire leads to increasing rates of high-severity burning. Our study also substantiates the general validity of ""fuel-limited"" vs. ""climate-limited"" explanations of differing patterns of fire effects and response in forest types of the western US.",The fire frequency-severity relationship and the legacy of fire suppression in California forests,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+799610,"Increasing planting density is important to raise maize yield, however, high density often leads to an increase risk of lodging due to dense canopy and weak stem. Maize yield and optimal plant density are increased by applying plant growth regulator compound of ethephon and DA-6, however, we do not know if this compound would interact with location and genotype. In this study, a novel plant growth regulator, as the synthesis of N,N-diethyl - 2 - hexanoyl oxygen radicals - ethyl amine (2-ethyl chloride) phosphonic acid salt (DHEAP), combining the effects of ethephon and DA-6 in one chemical, was developed and tested at three locations, five plant densities (6.75, 8.25, 9.75, 11.25 and 12.75 plants m(-2)) and three cultivars in 2014-2015. This study aimed to quantify the interactions between environment, genotype and management (Appling DHEAP and plant density) on lodging-related optimal plant density and yield. DHEAP significantly increased grain yield by 10.7% due to the increases of kernel weight by 3.2% and kernel number per ear by 4.4%. On average across genotypes and environments, applying DHEAP increased optimum plant density by 6%. The optimal plant density interacted with cultivar, DHEAP and environment. Applying DHEAP reduced lodging percentage by lowering ear height. The yield-lodging relationship was affected by genotype and location. We concluded that maize yield could been enhanced by optimizing plant density, applying DHEAP and cultivar selection, but climatic and environmental differences of locations should be considered.",Plant growth regulator and its interactions with environment and genotype affect maize optimal plant density and yield,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1435933,"The control of point-source contaminants and regulations designed for specific waste discharges have reduced incidents of fish kills. These actions, however, do not protect fish like salmon, which encounter many different contaminants during extensive migrations. Attempts to document pollutant-associated toxicity is challenging in migratory salmon, although a few laboratory and field studies have produced a convincing body of evidence that lifelong contaminant exposure can contribute to the demise of fish. The case of the decline of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in British Columbia, Canada, brought into sharp relief the difficulty of assigning a specific cause (e. g., climate, disease, or contaminants) to a diffuse problem (i.e., low fish returns). Determining the effects that pollutants have on wild salmon requires study designs that consider life history, habitat, and the real world of complex contaminant exposures. In the absence of evidence from such study designs, the future survival of salmon may hinge on the application by managers of the precautionary approach to stressors that are within immediate jurisdictional control, such as toxic chemicals.",The trouble with salmon: relating pollutant exposure to toxic effect in species with transformational life histories and lengthy migrations,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+496923,"1. Increases in global temperatures have created concern about effects of climatic variability on populations, and climate has been shown to affect population dynamics in an increasing number of species. Testing for effects of climate on population densities across a species' distribution allows for elucidation of effects of climate that would not be apparent at smaller spatial scales. 2. Using autoregressive population models, we tested for effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual population densities of a North American migratory landbird, the yellow-billed cuckoo Coccyzus americanus, across the species' breeding distribution over a 37-year period (1966-2002). 3. Our results indicate that both the NAO and ENSO have affected population densities of C. americanus across much of the species' breeding range, with the strongest effects of climate in regions in which these climate systems have the strongest effects on local temperatures. Analyses also indicate that the strength of the effect of local temperatures on C. americanus populations was predictive of long-term population decline, with populations that were more negatively affected by warm temperatures experiencing steeper declines. 4. Results of this study highlight the importance of distribution-wide analyses of climatic effects and demonstrate that increases in global temperatures have the potential to lead to additional population declines.",Distribution-wide effects of climate on population densities of a declining migratory landbird,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2331788,"Little is known about the fire ecology of desert springs, despite their importance for biodiversity and for provision of ecosystem services. Desert spring ecosystems are characterised by high and continuous fuel loads compared with surrounding uplands, suggesting that fire may play a significant ecological role. For the Ash Meadows spring complex in the south-western USA, we used ecological-niche factor analysis and a Bayesian model averaging regression technique to characterise the environmental conditions associated with spatially explicit burn probability and burn severity over a 24-year period. Burn probability and burn severity were both more strongly associated with fuel availability than with proximity to anthropogenic ignition sources; however, areas with more homogeneous vegetation cover were positively associated with high-severity burns but were negatively associated with burn probability. Burn probability was greater near areas of high anthropogenic influence, whereas areas further from anthropogenic alteration were more likely to experience high-severity fire. Riparian forest and emergent wetland vegetation were most likely to burn although they were among the rarest vegetation types. Human activities may strongly influence fire regimes in desert spring wetlands through groundwater pumping and introductions of exotic plants that alter fuelbed heterogeneity and shift the balance among woody and herbaceous vegetation.",Predictive modelling of burn probability and burn severity in a desert spring ecosystem,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1283755,"Drought during the early vegetation growing season (spring through early summer) is a severe natural hazard in the large cropland over North America. Given the recent increasing severity of climate change manifested as surface warming, there has been a growing interest in how warming affects drought and the prospect of drought. Here we show the impact of boreal warming on the spring and early summer drought over North America using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis. Northern Hemispheric warming, the leading mode of the surface air temperature variability, has led to a decrease in precipitation, evaporation and moisture transport over the central plain of North America. From a quantitative assessment of atmospheric water budget, precipitation has decreased more than evaporation and moisture transport, resulting in increased (decreased) moisture in the lower troposphere (land surface). Despite the increased moisture content, relative humidity has decreased due to the increased saturation specific humidity arising from the lower-tropospheric warming. The anomaly patterns of the soil moisture and Palmer Drought Severity Index resemble that of the anomalous relative humidity. Results of the present study suggest a credible insight that drought in the main cropland will intensify if the anthropogenic warming continues, exacerbating vulnerability of drought.",Physical mechanism of spring and early summer drought over North America associated with the boreal warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1386352,"Massive glacier thinning in the Alps during the past 20 years is documented by direct mass balance measurements on nine regularly observed glaciers. How representative this limited sample of glaciers is for the entire Alps, however, remained uncertain. The near-global digital terrain model from the SRTM enables a closer analysis of this question, which is of fundamental importance to assess overall glacier volume change. Here we present elevation changes from 1985 to 1999 for about 1050 glaciers in the Swiss Alps. The analysis reveals extreme thickness losses (>80 m) for flat/low-lying glacier tongues and a strong overall surface lowering. The mean cumulative mass balance of the nine glaciers with direct measurements (-10.8 m w.e.) agrees well with the mean change of the entire region from DEM differencing (-11 m w.e.) and can thus be considered to be representative. Mean thickness change of individual glaciers is correlated with their size, elevation, and exposure to solar irradiation. This implies that mass losses of large glaciers can be underestimated when they are directly inferred from values measured at much smaller glaciers. Citation: Paul, F., and W. Haeberli (2008), Spatial variability of glacier elevation changes in the Swiss Alps obtained from two digital elevation models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L21502, doi:10.1029/2008GL034718.",Spatial variability of glacier elevation changes in the Swiss Alps obtained from two digital elevation models,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+553643,"Mountain systems throughout the globe are characterized by high levels of species richness and species endemism. Biodiversity, however, is not distributed evenly with altitude, but often declines from mid to high altitudes. Conversely, endemic species may be over-represented at high altitudes. Upward elevational range shifts of mountain species have been reported in response to ongoing changes in climate, yet the reports are dominated by studies on woody species and mountains at high latitudes. We investigated spatial and temporal changes in the mountain biodiversity in the subtropical island of Taiwan, based on historical survey and resurvey data during the period 19062006. We found that upper altitudinal limits of mountain plant distributions have risen by ca 3.6 m yr-1 during the last century, in parallel with rising temperatures in the region. Although species, genus, and family richness decline with altitude, ca 55% of species at the highest altitudes are endemic to the island. Given the steep decline in land area with increasing elevation, these high altitude areas are disproportionately important for plant biodiversity when richness and endemism are standardized by available land area. We argue that the distributional shift that we report, in combination with the altitudinal distribution of plant diversity, is likely to pose a major threat to high mountain species of this highly biodiverse island, a threat that is becoming increasingly evident for high mountain plants throughout the globe.",Rapid altitudinal migration of mountain plants in Taiwan and its implications for high altitude biodiversity,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1299056,"Background Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased summer temperatures in Spain by nearly one degree Celsius on average between 1980 and 2015. However, little is known about the extent to which the association between heat and human mortality has been modified. We here investigate whether the observed warming has been associated with an upward trend in excess mortality attributable to heat or, on the contrary, a decrease in the vulnerability to heat has contributed to a reduction of the mortality burden. Methods and findings We analysed a dataset from 47 major cities in Spain for the summer months between 1980 and 2015, which included daily temperatures and 554,491 deaths from circulatory and respiratory causes, by sex. We applied standard quasi-Poisson regression models, controlling for seasonality and long-term trends, and estimated the temporal variation in heat-related mortality with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs). Results pointed to a reduction in the relative risks of cause-specific and cause-sex mortality across the whole range of summer temperatures. These reductions in turn explained the observed downward trends in heat-attributable deaths, with the only exceptions of respiratory diseases for women and both sexes together. The heat-attributable deaths were consistently higher in women than in men for both circulatory and respiratory causes. The main limitation of our study is that we were not able to account for air pollution in the models because of data unavailability. Conclusions Despite the summer warming observed in Spain between 1980 and 2015, the decline in the vulnerability of the population has contributed to a general downward trend in overall heatattributable mortality. This reduction occurred in parallel with a decline in the vulnerability difference between men and women for circulatory and cardiorespiratory mortality. Despite these advances, the risk of death remained high for respiratory diseases, and particularly in women.",Heat-related mortality trends under recent climate warming in Spain: A 36-year observational study,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1553016,"The predictable patterns and intraensemble variability of monthly 850-hPa zonal wind over the tropical Indo-Pacific region are investigated using 7-month hindcasts for 1983-2009 from Project Minerva. When applied to the ensemble hindcasts initialized on 1 May and 1 November, a maximum signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis identifies the patterns of high predictability as the hindcasts progress. For both initial months, the most predictable patterns are associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The second predictable patterns with May initialization reflect the anomalous evolution of the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon, characterized by a northward shift of the WNP anomalous anticyclone/cyclone in summer and a southward shift in fall. The intraensemble variability shows a strong seasonality that affects different predictable patterns in different seasons. For May initialization, the dominant patterns of the ensemble spread bear some resemblance to the predictable WNP patterns in summer and ENSO patterns in fall, which reflect the noise-induced differences in the evolution of the predictable signals among ensemble members. On the other hand, the noise patterns with November initialization are dominated by the northern extratropical atmospheric perturbations from winter to early spring, which expand southward through the coupled footprinting mechanism to perturb the ENSO evolution in different ensemble members. In comparison, the extratropical perturbations in the Southern Hemisphere, most significant in early months with May-initialized predictions, are less effective in affecting the tropical circulation.",Predictable Patterns of the Atmospheric Low-Level Circulation over the Indo-Pacific Region in Project Minerva: Seasonal Dependence and Intraensemble Variability,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+496476,"Climate change is expected to affect the global food production adversely. Rice, being a major food for more than half of the world population, its production management needs attention to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change and to ensure global food security. Crop simulation model CERES-Rice was used to simulate rice grain yield of two popular cultivars namely 'Lalat' (medium duration type, 120d) and 'Swarna' (long duration type, 145d) for climate change scenarios and to evaluate agro-adaptations at three locations (Kharagpur, Dumdum and Purulia) in eastern India. Using historical weather data of the locations, the CERES-rice model simulated higher average grain yield of the cultivar 'Swarna' as compared to 'Lalat' under rainfed agro-ecosystem. Use of future climate change scenarios of the General Circulation Models (GCMs); Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and United Kingdom Meteorological Office predicted variable yield of these cultivars at all the locations. For all the GCMs, the crop model simulated lower yield reduction of long duration cultivar 'Swarna' as compared to the medium duration cultivar Lalat with current farming practice. The yield reduction was to the extent of 27% and 14% at Kharagpur and 17% and 7% at Purulia for the cultivars Lalat and Swarna, respectively. An advanced planting time of 10 to 30 days from current farmers' planting time (15 July) is expected to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change on the rice yield. Cultivar selection and plating time adjustment could be suitably managed for better adaptation to minimize the risk of yield loss due to climate change.",Climate Change Impact Assessment and Evaluation of Agro-Adaptation Measures for Rice Production in Eastern India,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+693857,"In January 2010, hydrologists, climatologists, engineers, and scientists met in Boulder, Colorado, to discuss the report of the death of hydrologic stationarity and the implications this might have on water resources planning and operations in the United States and abroad. For decades planners have relied on design guidance from the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data Bulletin 17B that was based upon the concept of stationarity. After 21/2 days of discussion it became clear that the assembled community had yet to reach an agreement on whether or not to replace the assumption of stationarity with an assumption of nonstationarity or something else. Hydrologists were skeptical that data gathered to this point in the 21st Century point to any significant change in river parameters. Climatologists, on the other hand, point to climate change and the predicted shift away from current conditions to a more turbulent flood and drought filled future. Both groups are challenged to provide immediate guidance to those individuals in and outside the water community who today must commit funds and efforts on projects that will require the best estimates of future conditions. The workshop surfaced many approaches to dealing with these challenges. While there is good reason to support additional study of the death of stationarity, its implications, and new approaches, there is also a great need to provide those in the field the information they require now to plan, design, and operate today's projects.","If Stationarity is Dead, What Do We Do Now?",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+219921,"The implications for the hydroelectric industry of the high temperatures, low precipitation and low stream flows experienced in the U.S.A. during 1988 are considered. The severity of 1988 conditions and drought response strategies are discussed. Current events are not thought to be connected with long term climatic changes.",The 1988 drought and the hydroelectric industry.,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2090029,"The evolution of surface topography of glaciers in the Swiss Alps is well documented with high-resolution aerial photographs repeatedly recorded since the 1960s and further back in time with topographic maps including elevation contour lines first surveyed in the mid-19th century. In order to quantify and interpret glacier changes in the Swiss Alps, time series of volume changes over the last 100-150 years have been collected. The available datasets provide a detailed spatial resolution for the retreat period since the end of the Little Ice Age. The spatial distribution as well as temporal variations of the thickness change were analyzed. A significant ice loss since the end of the 19th century was observed in the ablation area, while the changes in the accumulation area were small. We found moderate negative secular rates until the 1960s, followed by steady to positive rates for about two decades and strong ice loss starting in the 1980s which has lasted until the present. An evaluation of 19 glaciers revealed a total ice volume loss of about 13 km(3) since the 1870s, of which 8.7 km(3) occurred since the 1920s and 3.5 km(3) since 1980. Decadal mean net balance rates for the periods 1920-60, 1960-80 and 1980-present are -0.29, -0.03 and -0.53 m a(-1) w.e., respectively.",Ice-volume changes of selected glaciers in the Swiss Alps since the end of the 19th century,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+745586,"The Western Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most rapidly warming regions on earth. It is therefore important to analyze long-term trends and inter-annual patterns of change in major environmental parameters to understand the process underlying climate change in Western Antarctica. Since many polar long-term data series are fragmented and cannot be analysed with common time series analysis tools, we present statistical approaches that can deal with missing values. We applied U-statistics after Pettit and Buishand to detect abrupt changes, dynamic factor analysis to detect functional relationships, and additive modelling to detect patterns in time related to climatic cycles such as the Southern Annular Mode and El Nio Southern Oscillation in a long-term environmental data set from King George Island (WAP), covering 20 years. Our results not only reveal sudden changes for sea surface temperature and salinity, but also clear patterns in all investigated variables (sea surface temperature, salinity, suspended particulate matter and Chlorophyll a) that can directly be related to climatic cycles. Our results complement previous findings on climate related changes in the King George Island Region and provide insight into the environmental conditions and climatic drivers of system change in the study area. Hence, our statistical analyses may prove valuable for other polar environmental data sets and contribute to a better understanding of the regional variability of climate change and its impact on coastal systems.",Analysis of trends and sudden changes in long-term environmental data from King George Island (Antarctica): relationships between global climatic oscillations and local system response,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+493006,"Increases in chlorinated and brominated halocarbons are believed to be responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed over much of the globe in the past decade or so. Ozone depletion is in turn believed to lead to a negative radiative forcing, tending to cool the stratosphere and the surface. We show that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting halocarbons and onset of related ozone depletion likely led to a negative forcing of the climate system in the 1980s that slowed significantly the rate of change of total anthropogenic radiative forcing due to the combined effect of all greenhouse gases over that decade. Within the next decade, emissions of these halocarbons are expected to rapidly decrease, with corresponding impacts on ozone and radiative forcing. As the emissions of ozone-depleting gases are reduced and eventually phased out, the rate of ozone depletion is expected to decrease and eventually reverse: All other things being equal, we show that the change from deepening ozone depletion in the 1980s to ozone increases in the future should lead to a pronounced increase in the decadal rate of change of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of the next few decades, perhaps to levels unprecedented in this century.",Impact of the Montreal protocol and its amendments on the rate of change of global radiative forcing,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+104326,"Polar regions have experienced significant warming in recent decades. Warming has been most pronounced across the Arctic Ocean Basin and along the Antarctic Peninsula, with significant decreases in the extent and seasonal duration of sea ice. Rapid retreat of glaciers and disintegration of ice sheets have also been documented. The rate of warming is increasing and is predicted to continue well into the current century, with continued impacts on ice dynamics. Climate-mediated changes in ice dynamics are a concern as ice serves as primary habitat for marine organisms central to the food webs of these regions. Changes in the timing and extent of sea ice impose temporal asynchronies and spatial separations between energy requirements and food availability for many higher trophic levels. These mismatches lead to decreased reproductive success, lower abundances, and changes in distribution. In addition to these direct impacts of ice loss, climate-induced changes also facilitate indirect effects through changes in hydrography, which include introduction of species from lower latitudes and altered assemblages of primary producers. Here, we review recent changes and trends in ice dynamics and the responses of marine ecosystems. Specifically, we provide examples of ice-dependent organisms and associated species from the Arctic and Antarctic to illustrate the impacts of the temporal and spatial changes in ice dynamics.",High latitude changes in ice dynamics and their impact on polar marine ecosystems,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2099154,"Urbanization has proceeded rapidly in China, bringing large-scale social, economic and environmental change to the strategically important peri-urban regions that surround expanding cities. In the Beijing Metropolitan Region, with an area of 16,411 km(2), government policies have sought the development of multi-functional peri-urban agriculture, favoring the production of cash crops, and the area of vegetable, fruit and organically grown cereal production has increased, whereas the area under conventional cereal production has declined. In this study, six characteristic agricultural practices in the peff-urban zone were compared in terms of energy use efficiency, economic and environmental performance. A multi-dimensional index was also constructed to compare overall performance. Conventional cereal cropping of spring maize (AP1) and winter wheat-summer maize (AP2) had the lowest energy inputs, highest energy use efficiency, and a positive net energy balance. However, cash crops (greenhouse watermelon-tomato, open-field peach; AP3 and AP4) and organically produced crops (Chinese chestnut, millet; AP5 and AP6) achieved substantially higher economic returns per ha cultivated. Fruit and vegetable crops also achieved much higher yields than conventionally grown cereals. Organically produced crops, although higher in value, achieved lower yields. Product carbon footprints ranged from 0.53 to 6.1 kg CO(2)eq kg(-1) and were lowest for fruit and vegetables. Water consumption ranged from < 0.1 L kg(-1) for Chinese chestnut to 435 L kg(-1) for the outputs of the winter wheat-summer maize rotation. When the various indicator results were combined using a multi-dimensional index, the ranking of the different peri-urban agricultural practices was AP6 > AP5 > AP3 > AP1 > AP4 > AP2. These results demonstrate that the multiple functions of per-urban agriculture are not always complementary. However, the adjustment of peff-urban agricultural practices in the Beijing Metropolitan Region appears to be increasing overall benefits. Nevertheless, benchmarking against practices in other parts of China and the world, suggests that there is substantial scope for improvement of peri-urban agriculture in the Beijing Metropolitan Region, with excessive N fertilization identified as a major contributing factor for the performance gap. The development of peff-urban agriculture in Beijing, as elsewhere, has emphasized multi-functionality, providing local food supply, economic returns for local farmers, ecological functioning, along with amenity. Different agricultural practices provide these benefits in different ways. Assessments that address only a single aspect risk informing decisions that have adverse unintended consequences. Studies employing a variety of indicators across the social, economic and environmental dimensions are required if the potential benefits of peri-urban agriculture are to be realized.","A multi-indicator assessment of peri-urban agricultural production in Beijing, China",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2320807,"In recent years, Taiwan has been facing water shortages due to the impact of climate change, which has resulted in many serious drought events, especially in southern Taiwan. Long-term records from 25 rainfall stations and 17 groundwater stations in the southern Taiwan basin were used in this study. We used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Groundwater Level Index (SGI) and employed the first-order Markov chain model and wavelet transform to determine the drought characteristics and propagation, including the steady-state probabilities of drought events and the mean duration for each station. The Drought Index (DI) was also used to investigate the effects of rainfall on groundwater drought. The results show that the steady-state probability of the meteorological drought in the Yanshui River basin in southern Taiwan is higher than that in other basins. The area with the longer mean duration is located in the Yanshui River basin and the Erren River basin, and overall, the mean duration ranges from 3 to 7 months. In addition, the results from the drought proneness analysis indicated that when rainfall causes a longer drought duration, there will be a higher degree of proneness to groundwater drought in the future. Finally, the results show that the mean duration of groundwater droughts are longer than those of meteorological droughts. The results of the wavelet analysis revealed a positive correlation at long-term scales, which may be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation. The information from this research could be used as a reference for water resource management in the future.",Using the Markov Chain to Analyze Precipitation and Groundwater Drought Characteristics and Linkage with Atmospheric Circulation,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+383259,"This research was aimed at studying seasonal changes in water quality of Tanbi Wetland National Park (TWNP) and how these interact with the different land use types to influence fish assemblage. Physicochemical properties were measured in situ with a portable YSI multiprobe watermeter and fish sampling was done using a seine net of 100×4 m. To assess nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) input and chlorophyll a concentration (chl-a) in TWNP, spectrophotometry (fluorescence method) was applied. Subjecting the main water variables to a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) indicated a strong correlation between water temperature and pH, phosphate and pH, as well as water temperature and phosphate. A further Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) of the environmental variables indicated salinity as the main water variable influencing fish species richness in TWNP. Except at the settlement and agricultural zones, changes in fish assemblage appear not to be influenced by the specific land use types. As judged from a three-decade time series of rainfall and atmospheric temperatures, seasonal variations in environmental conditions have intensified and are negatively influencing fish assemblage in TWNP. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.",Seasonal changes in water quality and fisheries of Tanbi Wetland National Park,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+51523,"The highly variable timing of streamflow in snowmelt-dominated basins across western North America is an important consequence, and indicator, of climate fluctuations. Changes in the timing of snowmelt-derived streamflow from 1948 to 2002 were investigated in a network of 302 western North America gauges by examining the center of mass for flow, spring pulse onset dates, and seasonal fractional flows through trend and principal component analyses. Statistical analysis of the streamflow timing measures with Pacific climate indicators identified local and key large-scale processes that govern the regionally coherent parts of the changes and their relative importance. Widespread and regionally coherent trends toward earlier onsets of springtime snowmelt and streamflow have taken place across most of western North America, affecting an area that is much larger than previously recognized. These timing changes have resulted in increasing fractions of annual flow occurring earlier in the water year by 1-4 weeks. The immediate (or proximal) forcings for the spatially coherent parts of the year-to-year fluctuations and longer-term trends of streamflow timing have been higher winter and spring temperatures. Although these temperature changes are partly controlled by the decadal-scale Pacific climate mode [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)], a separate ani significant part of the variance is associated with a springtime warming trend that spans the PDO phases.",Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+3288393,"Traditionally, India has been vulnerable to various hazards such as floods, droughts and cyclones. About 8% of the total Indian landmass is prone to cyclones. A number of Doppler weather radars are installed in India and their products are utilized for weather predictions and detection of cyclones approaching the Indian coast. Radar-based hydrological studies in various countries have proven that computation of runoff using radar rainfall data could outperform rain gauge network measurements. There are no reported studies on their utilization for hydrological modelling and/or flood-related studies in Indian river basins. A comparison study between Doppler weather radar (DWR) derived rainfall data and the conventional rain gauge data was carried out with hourly inputs at one of the watersheds of Chennai basin, Tamil Nadu, India using HEC-HMS model. The model calibration and validation were performed by comparing the simulated outflow with the observed daily outflow data. The calibrated model was used to predict runoff from two post-monsoon cyclonic storm events with hourly inputs. It was noticed that the discrepancy in the runoff volume was small, but the difference in the peak flow was substantial. Additionally, there was a variation at the time to peak flow using daily and hourly inputs. The results show that the use of radar data may be optional for runoff volume estimation for the watersheds with sufficient rain gauge density, but highly desirable for peak flow and time to peak estimation. Therefore, the DWR derived rainfall data is a promising input for runoff estimation, especially in urban flood modelling.",Applicability of Doppler weather radar based rainfall data for runoff estimation in Indian watersheds - A case study of Chennai basin,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+529388,"Tropical forest fragmentation influences community composition via differential species-level effects. Avian responses to fragmentation at La Selva Biological Station are, in part, responsible for the particular concern over the fate of understory insectivorous species. However, since the 1990s, much previously deforested land within and surrounding La Selva has reverted to forest, providing an opportunity to test hypotheses explaining ongoing avifaunal change. Analyses of 23 years (1989-2011) of Christmas Bird Counts reveal that 63 of 202 species have increased whereas 44 are declining, with declines occurring more rapidly than increases. Habitat association was an important predictor of population trends, as understory birds continue to decline whereas forest generalists increased. Our results differ from previous work in the tropics by revealing that, at La Selva, insectivores are not currently suffering greater declines than birds of other dietary guilds. Instead, body size was more strongly associated with population change than was diet, with smaller birds having more negative population trends than larger birds. These results suggest that we must consider additional hypotheses that may explain ongoing population declines of tropical birds. In particular, the associations between population trends and body size implicate physiological mechanisms influencing population change, which may result from direct or indirect consequences of changing climates. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Ongoing changes in the avifauna of La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica: Twenty-three years of Christmas Bird Counts",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+475093,"The arid and semi-arid regions account for approximately 30% of the world total area and are inhabited by approximately 20% of the total world population. Issues of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics of the world were examined and discussion under each of these issues had been presented separately for Asia, Africa and Latin America. Several countries in tropical Asia have reported increasing surface temperature trends in recent decades. Although, there is no definite trend discernible in the long-term mean for precipitation for the tropical Asian region, many countries have shown a decreasing trend in rainfall in the past three decades. African rainfall has changed substantially over the last 60 yr and a number of theoretical, modelling and empirical analyses have suggested that noticeable changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including floods may occur when there are only small changes in climate. Climate in Latin America is affected by the El Ni (n) over tildeo-southern oscillation (ENSO) phases and there is a close relationship between the increase and decrease of rainfall depending upon the warm or cold phases of the phenomenon. Over land regions of Asia, the projected area-averaged annual mean warming is likely to be 1.6 +/- 0.2 degrees C in the 2020s, 3.1 +/- 0.3 degrees C in the 2050s, and 4.6 +/- 0.4 degrees C in the 2080s and the models show high uncertainty in projections of future winter and summer precipitation. Future annual warming across Africa is projected to range from 0.2 degrees C per decade to more than 0.5 degrees C per decade, while future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined. In Latin America, projections indicate a slight increase in temperature and changes in precipitation. Impacts of climate variability and changes are discussed with suitable examples. Agricultural productivity in tropical Asia is sensitive not only to temperature increases, but also to changes in the nature and characteristics of monsoon. Simulations of the impacts of climate change using crop simulation models show that crop yield decreases due to climate change could have serious impacts on food security in tropical Asia. Climate change is likely to cause environmental and social stress in many of Asia's rangelands and drylands. In the arid and semi-arid tropics of Africa, which are already having difficulty coping with environmental stress, climate change resulting in increased frequencies of drought poses the greatest risk to agriculture. Impacts were described as those related to projected temperature increases, the possible consequences to water balance of the combination of enhanced temperatures and changes in precipitation and sensitivity of different crops/cropping systems to projected changes. In Latin America, agriculture and water resources are most affected through the impact of extreme temperatures (excessive heat, frost) and the changes in rainfall (droughts, flooding). Adaptation potential in the arid and semi-arid tropics of Asia, Africa and Latin America was described using suitable examples. It is emphasized that approaches need to be prescriptive and dynamic, rather than descriptive and static.",Impacts of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+796054,"1. Understanding and predicting phenology has become more important with ongoing climate change and has brought about great research efforts in the recent decades. The majority of studies examining spring phenology of insects have focussed on the effects of spring temperatures alone. 2. Here we use citizen-collected observation data to show that winter cold duration, in addition to spring temperature, can affect the spring emergence of butterflies. Using spatial mixed models, we disentangle the effects of climate variables and reveal impacts of both spring and winter conditions for five butterfly species that overwinter as pupae across the UK, with data from 1976 to 2013 and one butterfly species in Sweden, with data from 2001 to 2013. 3. Warmer springs lead to earlier emergence in all species and milder winters lead to statistically significant delays in three of the five investigated species. We also find that the delaying effect of winter warmth has become more pronounced in the last decade, during which time winter durations have become shorter. 4. For one of the studied species, Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly), we also make use of parameters determined from previous experiments on pupal development to model the spring phenology. Using daily temperatures in the UK and Sweden, we show that recent variation in spring temperature corresponds to 10-15 day changes in emergence time over UK and Sweden, whereas variation in winter duration corresponds to 20 days variation in the south of the UK versus only 3 days in the south of Sweden. 5. In summary, we show that short winters delay phenology. The effect is most prominent in areas with particularly mild winters, emphasising the importance of winter for the response of ectothermic animals to climate change. With climate change, these effects may become even stronger and apply also at higher latitudes.",Winter chilling speeds spring development of temperate butterflies,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+735892,"Although recent studies suggest that climate change may substantially accelerate the rate of species loss in the biosphere, only a few studies have focused on the potential consequences of a spatial reorganization of biodiversity with global warming. Here, we show a pronounced latitudinal increase in phytoplanktonic and zooplanktonic biodiversity in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean in recent decades. We also show that this rise in biodiversity paralleled a decrease in the mean size of zooplanktonic copepods and that the reorganization of the planktonic ecosystem toward dominance by smaller organisms may influence the networks in which carbon flows, with negative effects on the downward biological carbon pump and demersal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Our study suggests that, contrary to the usual interpretation of increasing biodiversity being a positive emergent property promoting the stability/resilience of ecosystems, the parallel decrease in sizes of planktonic organisms could be viewed in the North Atlantic as reducing some of the services provided by marine ecosystems to humans.","Marine biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and carbon cycles",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+460524,"Corals in the Gulf I withstand summer temperatures up to 10 degrees C higher than corals elsewhere and have recovered from extreme temperature events in 10 years or less. This heat-tolerance of Gulf corals has positive implications for the world's coral populations to adapt to increasing water temperatures. However, survival of Gulf corals has been severely tested by 35-37 degrees C temperatures five times in the last 15 years, each time causing extensive coral bleaching and mortality. Anticipated future temperature increases may therefore challenge survival of already highly stressed Gulf corals. Previously proposed translocation of Gulf corals to introduce temperature-adapted corals outside of the Gulf is assessed and determined to be problematical, and to be considered a tool of last resort. Coral culture and transplantation within the Gulf is feasible for helping maintain coral species populations and preserving genomes and adaptive capacities of Gulf corals that are endangered by future thermal stress events. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Thermal tolerances of reef corals in the Gulf: A review of the potential for increasing coral survival and adaptation to climate change through assisted translocation,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+81067,"Our data, collected in the extreme east of Europe, show that a significant biological effect of climate change has been experienced even in territories where temperature increase has been the lowest. This study documents the climatic response of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) growing near its north-eastern limits in Europe. It demonstrates the potential of oak trees in old-growth forest to act as proxy climate indicators. Many factors may influence the temporal stability of the growth-climate, acorn crop-climate and first leafing-climate relationships. Climate data, climatic fluctuations, reproduction, genetics and tree-age may relate to this instability. Our results stress that an increase in climate variability or climatic warming resulting from warmer winters or summers could affect the oak population in eastern Europe in a similar way to that in western Europe. These findings, from remnants of oak forest in the middle Volga region of Russia, allow a further understanding of how species could be affected by future climates.","The effect of climate on the phenology, acorn crop and radial increment of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) in the middle Volga region, Tatarstan, Russia",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+204639,"Questions: Did the forest area in the Swiss Alps increase between 1985 and 1997? Does the forest expansion near the tree line represent an invasion into abandoned grasslands (ingrowth) or a true upward shift of the local tree line? What land cover / land use classes did primarily regenerate to forest, and what forest structural types did primarily regenerate? And, what are possible drivers of forest regeneration in the tree line ecotone, climate and/or land use change? Location: Swiss Alps. Methods: Forest expansion was quantified using data from the repeated Swiss land use statistics GEOSTAT. A moving window algorithm was developed to distinguish between forest ingrowth and upward shift. To test a possible climate change influence, the resulting upward shifts were compared to a potential regional tree line. Results: A significant increase of forest cover was found between 1650 to and 2450 m. Above 1650 m, 10% of the new forest areas were identified as true upward shifts whereas 90% represented ingrowth, and we identified both land use and climate change as likely drivers. Most upward shift activities were found to occur within a band of 300 m below the potential regional tree line, indicating land use as the most likely driver. Only 4% of the upward shifts were identified to rise above the potential regional tree line, thus indicating climate change. Conclusions: Land abandonment was the most dominant driver for the establishment of new forest areas, even at the tree line ecotone. However, a small fraction of upwards shift can be attributed to the recent climate warming, a fraction that is likely to increase further if climate continues to warm, and with a longer time-span between warming and measurement of forest cover.",Tree line shifts in the Swiss Alps: Climate change or land abandonment?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+207408,"AimAlterations to the abundance and distribution of plants, especially shrubs, have been predicted by warming experiments and confirmed by remote-sensing analyses and land-based observations in the Low Arctic. In the High Arctic, analyses of satellite images suggest a recent increase in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and warming experiments have shown a positive correlation between temperature and shrub cover, but little is known about the responses of natural systems. In this context, we investigated populations of Arctic willow (Salix arctica Pall.) to assess the potential contribution of this structuring species to High Arctic shrubification. LocationSeven polar semidesert sites, including two glacier forelands, in High Arctic Canada and Greenland. MethodsWe evaluated the size distribution and establishment age of Arctic willow populations through field measurements and dendrochronological analysis. We also assessed the cover of Arctic willow at each site and compared current data with historical records. ResultsAge determination of over 200 large individuals established by seed suggests that colonization events were associated with the melting of permanent snow and glacial ice. Size distributions showed that recent recruitment was more frequent on glacier forelands, even though seedling establishment was common in other sites. Comparing our measurements with previous studies at the same sites revealed that significant increases in cover over the past few decades occurred only on glacier forelands. Main conclusionsOur results suggest that the population structure and dynamics of Arctic willow in the High Arctic are influenced by site-specific factors. Rapid glacier retreat is increasing the extent of the glacier forelands, which are currently experiencing relatively rapid plant colonization. Some sheltered sites with greater snow accumulation will probably experience increased shrub colonization under current and predicted climate change. It appears, however, that shrub recruitment and growth are still strongly limited by water availability, and the reduction in permanent snow cover may exacerbate this stress.",Population structure and dynamics of Arctic willow (Salix arctica) in the High Arctic,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+605952,"Boreal larch forests in eastern Siberia contain about half of the carbon accumulated in Eurasian forest communities, and fire is an important disturbance in this area, contributing to changes in forest composition and breaking the original succession trajectory. Assessing burn severity and environmental controls on post-fire larch recruitment is critical for understanding long-term effects of fire disturbance on forest succession in this region. A mega-fire that burned 8700 ha in the year 2000 in the Great Xing' an Mountains provided an opportunity to study the effects of mixed-severity fire disturbance in larch forests. We sampled tree recruitment in 83 burned sites to address the question of how burn severity and site environment interact to influence the species composition and density of post-fire tree recruitment, and hence the successional trajectory of forest. We explored the hypothesis that the larch forest was more likely to replace itself rapidly (""self-replacement succession"") in areas of low-severity burn, but was more likely to be replaced by an early-seral community of broadleaf trees (""relay succession"") in areas of high-severity burn. Our analysis showed that post-fire conifer and broadleaf recruit densities were both negatively related to burn severity and understory cover. Environmental conditions (e.g. elevation, slope, aspect) had weaker influences than burn severity on post-fire tree densities, but played a stronger role in determining the relative proportion of conifer recruits. Broadleaf trees recruited abundantly in low-severity burns in upland areas, even though they were absent from most of the pre-fire sites. In contrast, coniferous trees recruited more abundantly in low-severity burns in valley bottom areas. The comparison of pre- and post-fire tree composition in the burned patches indicated that self-replacement succession was likely to occur in valley bottom areas that burned with low severity. Burned upland areas are more likely to experience an alternative, broadleaf-dominated trajectory of relay succession. The increase in the severity and frequency of fires due to climate warming may prompt shifts from a larch dominated forest to an increasingly birch dominated landscape, substantially altering landscape dynamics and ecosystem services. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Post-fire tree recruitment of a boreal larch forest in Northeast China,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2270,"Species movements in relation with global warming may increase the spatial overlap between exotic and endemic species, which is a critical issue for the conservation of biodiversity. The Mediterranean Sea, which is a receptacle for exotic species while being a hotspot for endemism, provides exceptional material for a case study. The aim of our study was to quantify (i) the increasing invasion from southern fish exotic species (Red Sea and Atlantic Ocean) that the Mediterranean biota is experiencing and (ii) the spatial overlap between exotic and endemic Mediterranean fish fauna following the northward movement of exotic species within the Mediterranean Sea in the context of global warming. The historical invasion dynamic of exotic fish species and the sea surface temperature series were reconstructed from 1810 to 2006 in order to estimate the correlation between invasion rate and climate. The geographical distributions of exotic and endemic fish richness before and after the period of global warming were used to assess the dynamic of spatial congruence. The results revealed (i) an acceleration of successful introductions from the Red Sea and (ii) the introduction of Atlantic species from lower latitudes in correlation with the increasing temperature of the Mediterranean Sea. We also showed an increasing overlap between the spatial distributions of endemic and exotic species richness. Taken together, our results suggest that endemic fish species are facing a growing number of exotic species because the Mediterranean Sea is acting as a catchment basin for southern species.",Increasing southern invasion enhances congruence between endemic and exotic Mediterranean fish fauna,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+784100,"Water deficit is the major source of yield gap for soybean [ Glycine max (L.) Merr.] in Brazil, which can be mitigated through physiological soybean traits or soil crop management. Considering these two aspects, the aim of this study was to evaluate the soybean yield gain associated with deeper roots, based on different root profiles observed along soybean production areas in Brazil. The effect of root depth was evaluated for 55 growing seasons in 24 locations in the country. The soybean yield simulations were performed with the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean crop model calibrated for Brazilian conditions. The model's soil root growth factor was changed to create five root distribution profiles in the soil. The deepest root system reached 200 cm, while the shallowest root system was limited to 60 cm. The interaction between root system distribution and climate resulted in different soybean yield levels in the assessed locations. Soybean yield gain increased gradually from shallower to the deeper root systems, ranging between 500 and 2500 kg ha(-1). The yield gain tended to be lower when yield was higher (wet growing season) and higher when yield was lower (dry growing season). Under higher water deficit, the yield gain was reduced for all root systems. The results of this study proved that a better root profi le distribution increases average soybean yield and reduces yield inter-annual variability, mainly where water deficit is a problem. Root profile distribution should be considered for improving soybean resilience to water deficit and adapt the crop for a changing climate.",Improvement of Soybean Resilience to Drought through Deep Root System in Brazil,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1498867,"This study explores an approach that simultaneously estimates Antarctic mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) through the combination of satellite gravity and altimetry data sets. The results improve upon previous efforts by incorporating a firn densification model to account for firn compaction and surface processes as well as reprocessed data sets over a slightly longer period of time. A range of different Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity models were evaluated and a new Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) surface height trend map computed using an overlapping footprint approach. When the GIA models created from the combination approach were compared to in situ GPS ground station displacements, the vertical rates estimated showed consistently better agreement than recent conventional GIA models. The new empirically derived GIA rates suggest the presence of strong uplift in the Amundsen Sea sector in West Antarctica (WA) and the Philippi/Denman sectors, as well as subsidence in large parts of East Antarctica (EA). The total GIA-related mass change estimates for the entire Antarctic ice sheet ranged from 53 to 103 Gt yr(-1), depending on the GRACE solution used, with an estimated uncertainty of +/- 40 Gt yr(-1). Over the time frame February 2003-October 2009, the corresponding ice mass change showed an average value of -100 +/- 44 Gt yr(-1) (EA: 5 +/- 38, WA: -105 +/- 22), consistent with other recent estimates in the literature, with regional mass loss mostly concentrated in WA. The refined approach presented in this study shows the contribution that such data combinations can make towards improving estimates of present-day GIA and ice mass change, particularly with respect to determining more reliable uncertainties.",Empirical estimation of present-day Antarctic glacial isostatic adjustment and ice mass change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2312030,"Cores from four coastal plains of the Mar Ligure Sea in N Tuscany and E Liguria (Italy) were investigated by means of pollen analysis to delineate the Holocene landscape history of the NW Italian coasts. In the first half of the Holocene (c. 9800-7000 cal. yr BP) all four sites show elevated percentages of Abies pollen which suggest the local presence of fir woods (with Ulmus, Tilia, etc.). In the second half of the Holocene (from 7000 cal. yr BP), Abies becomes locally extinct along the coasts leaving space for the development of mosaic landscapes formed by open meso-thermophilous woods (with deciduous Quercus, Alnus, Corylus) and Mediterranean maquis (with Erica cf. arborea). The new data represent a significant contribution to the reconstruction of the landscape history of the NW Italian coasts and of the history of fir in Italy. Along all examined cores discontinuous pollen records show that initially the coastal areas were characterized by retrodunal wetlands; after c. 6000 cal. yr BP only the larger plains in N Tuscany remained extensively damp while the smaller plains in E Liguria were buried (and/or drained). Thus, these buried deposits of 'fossil' coastal wetlands proved to be only partially useful for high-resolution environmental archaeology and history studies. Nonetheless they are unique traces of ecosystems that provided important local economic resources for millennia and formed elements of the coastal cultural landscapes which have almost totally disappeared today.",The Holocene landscape history of the NW Italian coasts,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+654094,"A fundamentally revised version of the HERMES agro-ecosystem model, released under the name of MONICA, was calibrated and tested to predict crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics for various experimental crop rotations across Germany, including major cereals, sugar beet and maize. The calibration procedure also included crops grown experimentally under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. The calibrated MONICA simulations yielded a median normalised mean absolute error (nMAE) of 0.20 across all observed target variables (n = 42) and a median Willmott's Index of Agreement (d) of 0.91 (median modelling efficiency (ME): 0.75). Although the crop biomass, habitus and soil moisture variables were all within an acceptable range, the model often underperformed for variables related to nitrogen. Uncalibrated MONICA simulations yielded a median nMAE of 0.27 across all observed target variables (n = 85) and a median d of 0.76 (median ME: 0.30), also showing predominantly acceptable results for the crop biomass, habitus and soil moisture variables. Based on the convincing performance of the model under uncalibrated conditions, MONICA can be regarded as a suitable simulation model for use in regional applications. Furthermore, its ability to reproduce the observed crop growth results in free-air carbon enrichment experiments makes it suited to predict agro-ecosystem behaviour under expected future climate conditions. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","The MONICA model: Testing predictability for crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2316825,"With increased attention paid to the changes of global climate, the impacts on hydrological processes remain poorly understood in specific basins. In this study, we selected Luanhe River Basin, which is an important source of water supply to Beijing and Hebei, as a case study for the analysis of the combined impact of precipitation and temperature change to hydrological components in a semi-arid river basin. This study investigated the change of the blue water flow (BWF), green water flow (GWF), and green water storage (GWS) by employing the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and stochastic methods in different time scales during 1960 to 2017. The contribution of climate changes to hydrological change were quantified by 16 hypothetical scenarios by recombining climatic data. The results show that the annual daily maximum and minimum temperature (T-max, T-min) increased while their differences (DTR) decreased. However, there was no significant trend in annual precipitation and hydrological components. The trend of precipitation has a positive impact to the change of all three hydrological components. Although precipitation contributes more to changes in hydrological components, more attention also needs to be given to the change of DTR, which has positive impact of GWF that contrasts with that of BWF and GWS. Seasonal scale studies of these changes suggested that more attention should be paid to the climate change in spring and winter when the hydrological components were more sensitive to climate change. Our results summarized hydrological components variability under the impact of climate change and demonstrated the importance of analyses at different time scales, which was expected to provide a reference for water resources management in other semi-arid river basins.",Hydrological Components Variability under the Impact of Climate Change in a Semi-Arid River Basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1498027,"Species are threatened globally by multiple and often synergistic environmental changes including habitat loss, fragmentation and climate change. However, how these changes act in concert is poorly understood, especially in the tropics where the vast majority of biodiversity resides. Here, using a unique dataset covering 10 years of butterfly surveys (2003-2013) at Tam Dao National Park in northern Vietnam, we examined the combined impacts of habitat degradation (following intensive infrastructure development in 2005) and the possible threat of warming (extrapolating upon the relationship between natural climatic variation and community indices) for tropical butterfly communities. We found that both habitat degradation and warmer temperatures led to fewer narrow-range and forest-associated species comprising the sampled communities. Under projected climate change scenarios, the impact of warming was comparable to habitat degradation with respect to community change, and degraded forest communities were projected to shift towards cosmopolitan and non-forest species even more. The tropics have been heavily deforested world-wide and also suffer from heavy impacts of degradation and fragmentation, especially road construction. Warming will compound habitat degradation impacts such that the conservation of tropical biodiversity will require addressing these multiple global changes simultaneously. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.",Warming threat compounds habitat degradation impacts on a tropical butterfly community in Vietnam,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1295614,"Category 4 landfalling hurricane Harvey poured more than a metre of rainfall across the heavily populated Houston area, leading to unprecedented flooding and damage. Although studies have focused on the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to this extreme rainfall event(1-3), limited attention has been paid to the potential effects of urbanization on the hydrometeorology associated with hurricane Harvey. Here we find that urbanization exacerbated not only the flood response but also the storm total rainfall. Using the Weather Research and Forecast model-a numerical model for simulating weather and climate at regional scales-and statistical models, we quantify the contribution of urbanization to rainfall and flooding. Overall, we find that the probability of such extreme flood events across the studied basins increased on average by about 21 times in the period 25-30 August 2017 because of urbanization. The effect of urbanization on storm-induced extreme precipitation and flooding should be more explicitly included in global climate models, and this study highlights its importance when assessing the future risk of such extreme events in highly urbanized coastal areas.",Urbanization exacerbated the rainfall and flooding caused by hurricane Harvey in Houston,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+492901,"Aim To forecast the responses of alpine flora to the expected upward shift of treeline ecotones due to climatic warming, we investigated species richness patterns of vascular plants at small spatial scales across elevational transects. Location Richness patterns were assessed at local scales along the elevational gradient in two undisturbed treeline ecotones and one disturbed treeline ecotone in the Spanish Pyrenees. Methods We placed a rectangular plot (0.3-0.4 ha) in each treeline ecotone. We estimated and described the spatial patterns of plant richness using the point method and Moran's I correlograms. We delineated boundaries based on plant richness and tree cover using moving split windows and wavelet analysis. Then, to determine if floristic and tree cover boundaries were spatially related, overlap statistics were used. Results Plant richness increased above the forest limit and was negatively related to tree cover in the undisturbed sites. The mean size of richness patches in one of these sites was 10-15 m. Moving split windows and wavelets detected the sharpest changes in plant richness above the forest limit at both undisturbed sites. Most tree cover and plant richness boundaries were not spatially related. Main conclusions The upslope decrease of tree cover may explain the increase of plant richness across alpine treeline ecotones. However, the detection of abrupt richness boundaries well above the forest limit indicates the importance of local environmental heterogeneity to explain the patterns of plant richness at smaller scales. We found highly diverse microsites dominated by alpine species above the forest limit, which should be monitored to describe their response to the predicted upward shift of forests.",Spatial patterns of plant richness across treeline ecotones in the Pyrenees reveal different locations for richness and tree cover boundaries,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2236339,"Sea ice fields in the Antarctic, in contrast to the Arctic ones, did not show a reduction in observed global warming, whereas the global climate models indicate its certain decrease. The purpose of the study is to explain this climatic phenomenon on the basis of the idea of joint dynamics of oceanic structures in the Southern Ocean - the Antarctic polar front and the margin of the maximum distribution of sea ice. We used data from the ERA/Interim and HadISST as well as the database on the sea ice for 1979-2017. Relationship between the SST-anomalies in low latitudes of the Northern hemisphere and positions of the Antarctic polar front and maximum sea-ice extent was investigated. It was found that locations of these structures changed under the influence of the SST anomalies in low latitudes. The results obtained confirm existence of the opposite trends in changes in the sea ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic under the influence of the SST anomalies in the central North Atlantic Ocean. When positive, the anomalies cause a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Hadley circulation to the North, while, on the contrary, the negative anomaly promotes the corresponding shift of the Antarctic polar front, followed by the boundary of sea ice.",Influence of sea surface temperature in the tropics on the Antarctic sea ice under global warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2348346,"Fresh groundwater resources in coastal East Africa are crucial for the region's socio-economic development but are under threat of salinization caused by changes in recharge patterns and increasing abstraction. With the aim of establishing the drivers behind saltwater intrusion and its current spatial extent, we studied the Kenyan South Coast aquifer, a representative, strategic aquifer under increased pressure. Investigations included electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys and in-situ groundwater measurements (water table and basic quality) together with the analysis of available long-term climatic and borehole monitoring data. Over the last 40 years, groundwater electrical conductivity values at the well field increased by about three times and groundwater levels declined by 1-3 m over the last decade. When put in perspective with the long-term climate (rainfall, temperature) and abstraction records, these trends in groundwater appear to be primarily driven by increased borehole abstraction (+ 400 m(3)/day per year in average), whereas observed increasing temperature (+ 0.02 degrees C per year) and decreasing rainfall (- 0.8 mm per year) could potentially act as a secondary control through reduced recharge. However the low statistical significance obtained for both rainfall and temperature trends over the observation period suggests that no clear conclusion can be made with regards to long-term climate impact on groundwater. Groundwater quality mapping showed that proximity to the ocean, presence of abstraction well-fields and regional geology control groundwater salinity patterns at regional scale. Locally, geophysical data showed that, saltwater intrusion spatial patterns are controlled by local aquifer lithology, groundwater abstraction and freshwater recharge in floodplains. Comparison with previous (1984) resistivity data showed that the saltwater front has advanced toward the well-field by up to 2 km and rose by up to 80 m over the last 30 years, which corresponds to a maximal velocity of about 60 m/y horizontally and 2 m/y vertically. Implementation of groundwater management strategies such as sustainable groundwater exploitation, sourced alternative water supply, and managed aquifer recharge are required to mitigate the effects of seawater intrusion along the East African coastal strip.","Drivers, patterns and velocity of saltwater intrusion in a stressed aquifer of the East African coast: Joint analysis of groundwater and geophysical data in southern Kenya",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+491127,"Rapidly growing emerging economies, such as Brazil, China, India and Indonesia have joined the ranks of major industrialized countries as significant emitters of greenhouse (GHG). Their rapid economic growth has, however, brought about considerable environmental degradation, health costs, material damage, and a decrease in agriculture productivity. The notion of ""green growth"" has been proposed as a way out. This paper examines the case of Indonesia and evaluates its search for green growth through an approach that combines a so-called Energy Mix Policy and a REDD+ program. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Managing the transition to sustainability in an emerging economy: Evaluating green growth policies in Indonesia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+161370,"Understanding the causes of savanna-forest dynamics is vital as small but widespread changes in the extent of tropical forests can have major impacts on global climate, biodiversity and human well-being. Comparison of aerial photographs for 50 rain-forest patches in Kakadu National Park had previously revealed a landscape-wide monotonic expansion of rain-forest boundaries between 1964 and 2004. Here floristic, structural, environmental and disturbance attributes of the changes were investigated by sampling 588 plots across 30 rain-forest patches. Areas that had changed from savanna to rain forest were associated with a significantly higher abundance of rain-forest trees and less grasses, relative to stable savanna areas. Ordination analyses showed that overall floristic composition was not significantly different between newly established rain forest and longer established rain forest. Generalized linear models also indicated that contemporary levels of disturbance (fire and feral animal impact) and environmental variables (slope and soil texture) were poor predictors of historical vegetation change. We concluded that (1) the rain-forest boundaries are highly dynamic at the decadal scale; (2) rain-forest expansion is consistent with having been driven by global environmental change phenomena such as increases in rainfall and atmospheric CO2; and (3) expansion will continue if current climatic trends and management conditions persist. Copyright © 2007 Cambridge University Press.","Drivers of rain-forest boundary dynamics in Kakadu National Park, northern Australia: A field assessment",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+877853,"Arctic marine mammals range widely, serve as biological indicators, occupy areas rich in natural resources, and are an important subsistence resource. Eleven species of Arctic marine mammals are highly associated with, or dependent on, sea ice for key aspects of their life history including foraging, reproduction, and movement. Approximately 24 other species forage in the Arctic seasonally. Climate change is the primary threat to Arctic marine mammals although its effects are expected to vary in time, space, and among species. For example, loss of sea ice may reduce foraging habitat for polar bears or breeding habitat for pinnipeds, but may also increase access to foraging areas for some cetaceans. Sea ice dynamics in the Arctic influence energy fluxes, biological production, and ultimately the survival of species at higher trophic levels, yet many ecological consequences of continued sea ice loss remain unclear. Other conservation challenges for Arctic marine mammals include increasing resource extraction, shipping, and human development. © 2003, 2010, 2017 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.",Arctic marine mammals and sea ice,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3900541,"The carbonate reservoir rocks of the Mishrif Formation in the Rumaila oil field, are mainly composed of cryptite, bioclastic wackstone, bioclastic grainstone, bioclastic limestone and dolomitic limestone with various cavities, such as intergranular (dissolved) pores, mould pores, intercrystal pores, micropores, dissolution fractures and pressure-solution fractures, The Mishrif Formation develops mainly in a carbonate ramp sedimentary environment and its main subfacies include lagoon, back-shoal, bioclastc shoal, bioherm, fore-shoal and shallow shelf. There exist severe heterogeneities in interlayers and inner layers of the reservoir. The main diagenesis types in the Mishrif Formation include micritization, penecontemporaneous cementation, recrystallization, dissolution, buried cementation, compaction-pressolution and dolomitization. The interlayer heterogeneity is mainly controlled by facies migration affected by the third-order relative sea-level change. While the main factors controlling the innerlayer heterogeneity are the differential dissolution and cementation influenced by the fifth-or sixth-order relative sea-level change. Micro-fractures dominated by tectonism can increase local porosity and permeability.","Characteristics and genesis of carbonate reservoir of the Mishrif Formation in the Rumaila oil field, Iraq",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2362105,"The one-dimensional steady state analytical solution of the energy conservation equation obtained by Robin (1955, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214355793702028) is frequently used in glaciology. This solution assumes a linear change in surface velocity from a minimum value equal to minus the mass balance at the surface to zero at the bed. Here we show that this assumption of a linear velocity profile leads to large errors in the calculated temperature profile and especially in basal temperature. By prescribing a nonlinear power function of elevation above the bed for the vertical velocity profile arising from use of the Shallow Ice Approximation, we derive a new analytical solution for temperature. We show that the solution produces temperature profiles identical to numerical temperature solutions with the Shallow Ice Approximation vertical velocity near ice divides. We quantify the importance of strain heating and demonstrate that integrating the strain heating and adding it to the geothermal heat flux at the bed is a reasonable approximation for the interior regions. Our analytical solution does not include horizontal advection components, so we compare our solution with numerical solutions of a two-dimensional advection-diffusion model and assess the applicability and errors of the analytical solution away from the ice divide. We show that several parameters and assumptions impact the spatial extent of applicability of the new solution including surface mass balance rate and surface temperature lapse rate. We delineate regions of Greenland and Antarctica within which the analytical solution at any depth is likely within 2K of the actual temperatures with horizontal advection.",An Improved Analytical Solution for the Temperature Profile of Ice Sheets,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+725000,"The incidence of malaria in the East African highlands has increased since the end of the 1970s. The role of climate change in the exacerbation of the disease has been controversial, and the specific influence of rising temperature (warming) has been highly debated following a previous study reporting no evidence to support a trend in temperature. We revisit this result using the same temperature data, now updated to the present from 1950 to 2002 for four high-altitude sites in East Africa where malaria has become a serious public health problem. With both nonparametric and parametric statistical analyses, we find evidence for a significant warming trend at all sites. To assess the biological significance of this trend, we drive a dynamical model for the population dynamics of the mosquito vector with the temperature time series and the corresponding detrended versions. This approach suggests that the observed temperature changes would be significantly amplified by the mosquito population dynamics with a difference in the biological response at least 1 order of magnitude larger than that in the environmental variable. Our results emphasize the importance of considering not just the statistical significance of climate trends but also their biological implications with dynamical models.",Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: Temperature trends revisited,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+618064,"Increasing threats to natural ecosystems from local and global stressors are reinforcing the need for baseline data on the distribution and abundance of organisms. We quantified spatial and/or temporal patterns of seagrass distribution, shoot density, leaf area index, biomass, productivity, and sediment carbon content in shallow water (0-5 m) at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia, in field surveys conducted in December 2011 and October 2012. Seagrass meadows were mapped using satellite imagery and field validation. A total of 18.3 ha of seagrass, composed primarily of Thalassia hemprichii and Halodule uninervis, was mapped in shallow water. This was 46% less than the area of seagrass in the same region reported in 1995, although variations in mapping methods may have influenced the magnitude of change detected. There was inter-annual variability in shoot density and length, with values for both higher in 2011 than in 2012. Seagrass properties and sediment carbon content were representative of shallow-water seagrass meadows on a mid-shelf Great Barrier Reef island. The data can be used to evaluate change, to parameterize models of the impact of anthropogenic or environmental variability on seagrass distribution and abundance, and to assess the success of management actions.","Spatial and temporal variability of seagrass at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+677443,"Summer streamflow is a vital water resource for municipal and domestic water supplies, irrigation, salmonid habitat, recreation, and water-related ecosystem services in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in the United States. This study detects significant negative trends in September absolute streamflow in a majority of 68 stream-gauging stations located on unregulated streams in the PNW from 1958 to 2008. The proportion of March streamflow to annual streamflow increases in most stations over 1,000?m elevation, with a baseflow index of less than 50, while absolute March streamflow does not increase in most stations. The declining trends of September absolute streamflow are strongly associated with seven-day low flow, JanuaryMarch maximum temperature trends, and the size of the basin (197,260 km2), while the increasing trends of the fraction of March streamflow are associated with elevation, April 1 snow water equivalent, March precipitation, center timing of streamflow, and OctoberDecember minimum temperature trends. Compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimated regression models, spatial error regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models effectively remove spatial autocorrelation in residuals. The GWR model results show spatial gradients of local R 2 values with consistently higher local R 2 values in the northern Cascades. This finding illustrates that different hydrologic landscape factors, such as geology and seasonal distribution of precipitation, also influence streamflow trends in the PNW. In addition, our spatial analysis model results show that considering various geographic factors help clarify the dynamics of streamflow trends over a large geographical area, supporting a spatial analysis approach over aspatial OLS-estimated regression models for predicting streamflow trends. Results indicate that transitional rainsnow surface water-dominated basins are likely to have reduced summer streamflow under warming scenarios. Consequently, a better understanding of the relationships among summer streamflow, precipitation, snowmelt, elevation, and geology can help water managers predict the response of regional summer streamflow to global warming.","Spatial Patterns of March and September Streamflow Trends in Pacific Northwest Streams, 1958-2008",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+658878,"Owing to the complex interactions among climate, plants, cattle grazing, and land management practices, the impacts of climate change on cattle have been hard to predict. Predicting future grassland ecosystem functioning relies on understanding how changes in climate alter the quantity of forage produced, but also forage quality. Plant protein, which is a function of plant nitrogen concentrations, and digestible energy limit the performance of herbivores when in short supply; moreover, deficiencies can be expensive to mitigate. To better understand how changes in temperature and precipitation would affect forage protein and energy availability, we analyzed over 21 000 measurements of cattle fecal chemistry acquired over 14 years in the continental US. Our analysis of patterns in forage quality among ecologically defined regions revealed that increasing temperature and declining precipitation decreased dietary crude protein and digestible organic matter for regions with continental climates. Within regions, quality also declined with increased temperature; however, the effects of precipitation were mixed. Any future increases in precipitation would be unlikely to compensate for the declines in forage quality that accompany projected temperature increases. As a result, cattle are likely to experience greater nutritional stress in the future. If these geographic patterns hold as a proxy for future climates, agriculture will require increased supplemental feeds or the consequence will be a decrease in livestock growth.",Climate change and cattle nutritional stress,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1281626,"Crop phenology is co-determined by climate change and crop management. Over recent decades, climate change-related alterations in crop phenology have been observed and reported for various global crops. However, attributing changes in crop phenology to climate change is difficult, because there have been concurrent changes in crop management. In this paper, we isolated and quantified the impacts of climate change and crop management on the changes of wheat phenology in China, during the period 1981-2010, using a first difference multiple regression model. Our results shows: (1) based on observed phenological data, In spring/winter wheat, the mean sowing and emergence date were delayed by 0.91/2.29 and 0.39/0.73 days decade(-1); mean anthesis and maturity date advanced by 1.05/2.28 and 0.01/1.42 days decade(-1); mean length of vegetative growth period (VGP) and whole growth period (WGP) were shortened by 1.09/2.86 and 0.89/3.69 days decade(-1); mean length of reproductive growth period (RGP) was prolonged by 0.55/0.61 days decade(-1). (2) At most stations, changing direction of wheat phenology affected by isolated impacts of climate change or crop management was consistent with that affected by combined impacts of climate change and crop management. (3) For observed trends of most phenological stages and growth periods, relative contribution from climate change was smaller than from crop management, and average temperature contributed the most among the three contributors (average temperature, cumulative precipitation, and cumulative sunshine hours) to isolated impacts of climate change on wheat phenology. (4) Crop management over the three decades was shown to have helped reduce the lengths of VGP and WGP, but increase the length of RGP for both spring and winter wheat, implying that shorter-duration varieties with a higher yield or better yield stability in changing climate might have been introduced by farmers.",Modelling the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenological trends of spring and winter wheat in China,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+552736,"According to records of 17 meteorological stations distributed in the study area, climate change of the middle Inner Mongolia in northern China was analyzed in this paper. Based on SPOT VGT data, combined with field investigation, local vegetation change was detected in the last 10 years. The results show that annual mean air temperature obviously rose, while precipitation slightly decreased in fluctuation in the study area during the last 50 years. Air temperature increasing rates are +0.318A degrees C 10 year(-1) during 1960-2009 and +0.423A degrees C 10 year(-1) during 1980-2009, while precipitation decreasing rates are -2.91 mm 10 year(-1) during 1960-2009. There were five different dry or wet periods from the 1960s to the 2000s in order, and the wetter 1990s and the drier 2000s changed dramatically in the study area. Local climate totally tend to warm-dry conditions during the last 50 years. According to coefficient of variation (Cv) of yearly growing-season cumulative NDVI value and yearly NDVI maximum in pixel scale, vegetation had experienced huge temporal and spatial variation during the last 10 years. Recently, frequent droughts and dust storms seriously affected local agriculture and grazing activities, and resulted in heavy economic loss, especially over the drought period of 1999-2001. Faced with those drought disasters accompanied with strong dust storms, the local authorities proposed the enclosing-transferring strategy and made great efforts to adapt overt climate change and improve environment, including making selective emigration, decreasing livestock numbers, fencing grasslands and building forage production bases with irrigation instruments and actively adjusting industry structure. However, some effects and potential problems of this adaptation strategy still need to be comprehensively assessed further in longer time scales and aimed at different sub-regions.","Climate change and local adaptation strategies in the middle Inner Mongolia, northern China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1284999,"This work evaluates the impact of climate change on the water balance of a catchment in India. Rainfall and hydro-meteorological variables for current (20C3M scenario, 1981-2000) and two future time periods: mid of the 21st century (2046-2065) and end of the century (2081-2100) are simulated using Modified Markov Model-Kernel Density Estimation (MMM-KDE) and k-nearest neighbor downscaling models. Climate projections from an ensemble of 5 GCMs (MPI-ECHAM5, BCCR-BCM2.0, CSIRO-mk3.5, IPSL-CM4, and MRI-CGCM2) are used in this study. Hydrologic simulations for the current as well as future climate scenarios are carried out using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) integrated with ArcGIS (ArcSWAT v.2009). The results show marginal reduction in runoff ratio, annual streamflow and groundwater recharge towards the end of the century. Increased temperature and evapotranspiration project an increase in the irrigation demand towards the end of the century. Rainfall projections for the future shows marginal increase in the annual average rainfall. Short and moderate wet spells are projected to decrease, whereas short and moderate dry spells are projected to increase in the future. Projected reduction in streamflow and groundwater recharge along with the increase in irrigation demand is likely to aggravate the water stress in the region under the future scenario. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Estimation of the climate change impact on a catchment water balance using an ensemble of GCMs,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+440304,"The common cutworm, Spodoptera litura, has become a major pest of soybean (Glycine max) throughout its Indian range. With a changing climate, there is the potential for this insect to become an increasingly severe pest in certain regions due to increased habitat suitability. To examine this possibility, we developed temperature-based phenology model for S. litura, by constructing thermal reaction norms for cohorts of single life stages, at both constant and fluctuating temperatures within the ecologically relevant range (15-38 degrees C) for its development. Life table parameters were estimated stochastically using cohort updating and rate summation approach. The model was implemented in the geographic information system to examine the potential future pest status of S. litura using temperature change projections from SRES A(1)B climate change scenario for the year 2050. The changes were visualized by means of three spatial indices demonstrating the risks for establishment, number of generations per year and pest abundance according to the temperature conditions. The results revealed that the development rate as a function of temperature increased linearly for all the immature stages of S. litura until approximately 34-36 degrees C, after which it became non-linear. The extreme temperature of 38 degrees C was found lethal to larval and pupal stages of S. litura wherein no development to the next stage occurred. Females could lay no eggs at the extreme low (15 degrees C) and high (>35 degrees C) test temperatures, demonstrating the importance of optimum temperature in determining the suitability of climate for the mating and reproduction in S. litura. The risk mapping predicts that due to temperature increase under future climate change, much of the soybean areas in Indian states like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, will become suitable for S. litura establishment and increased pest activity, indicating the expansion of the suitable and favourable areas over time. This has serious implication in terms of soybean production since these areas produce approximately 95% of the total soybeans in India. As the present model results are based on temperature only, and the effects of other abiotic and biotic factors determining the pest population dynamics were excluded, it presents only the potential population growth parameters for S. litura. However, if combined with the field observations, the model results could certainly contribute to gaining insight into the field dynamics of S. litura.",Temperature Impacts the Development and Survival of Common Cutworm (Spodoptera litura): Simulation and Visualization of Potential Population Growth in India under Warmer Temperatures through Life Cycle Modelling and Spatial Mapping,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+167938,"We provide a century-scale view of small-mammal responses to global warming, without confounding effects of land-use change, by repeating Grinnell's early-20th century survey across a 3000-meter-elevation gradient that spans Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Using occupancy modeling to control for variation in detectability, we show substantial (similar to 500 meters on average) upward changes in elevational limits for half of 28 species monitored, consistent with the observed similar to 3 degrees C increase in minimum temperatures. Formerly low-elevation species expanded their ranges and high-elevation species contracted theirs, leading to changed community composition at mid- and high elevations. Elevational replacement among congeners changed because species' responses were idiosyncratic. Though some high-elevation species are threatened, protection of elevation gradients allows other species to respond via migration.","Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+636857,"Recent changes in the simulated potential crop yield and biomass production caused by changes in the temperature and global radiation patterns are examined, using the Crop Growth Monitoring System. The investigated crops are winter wheat, spring barley, maize, winter rapeseed, potato, sugar beet, pulses and sunflower. The period considered is 1976-2005. The research was executed at NUTS2 level. Maize and sugar beet were the crops least affected by changing temperature and global radiation patterns. For the other crops the simulated potential yield remained stable in the majority of regions, while decreasing trends in simulated potential yields prevailed in the remaining regions. The changes appear in a geographical pattern. In Italy and southern central Europe, temperature and radiation change effects are more severe than elsewhere, in these areas potential crop yields of more than three crops significantly decreased. In the UK and some regions in northern Europe the yield potential of various crops increased. In a next step the national yield statistics were analyzed. For a large majority of the countries the yield increases of wheat, barley and to a lesser extent rapeseed are leveling off. Several explanations could be given, however, as the simulated yield potential for these crops decreased in various regions, the changing temperature and radiation patterns may also contribute to the diminishing yield increases or to the stagnation. In more than 50% of the investigated countries the maize, potato and sugar beet yields continue to increase. This can be attributed to improving production techniques, new crop varieties, sometimes in combination with an improving climatic potential. In some regions in northern Europe, yields continue to increase. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Recent changes in the climatic yield potential of various crops in Europe,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1439923,"Atmospheric demand for moisture and dry days are expected to increase, leading to drying over land in the twenty-first century. Here, the magnitude and key drivers of this drying are investigated using model simulations under a low-moderate scenario, RCP4.5. The self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index with the Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PET) (sc_PDSI_pm), top 10-cm soil moisture (SM), and runoff (R) from 14 models are analyzed. The change patterns are found to be comparable while the magnitude differs among these measures of drought. The frequency of the SM-based moderate (severe) agricultural drought could increase by 50%-100% (100%-200%) in a relative sense by the 2090s over most of the Americas, Europe, and southern Africa and parts of East and West Asia and Australia. Runoff-based hydrological drought frequency could also increase by 10%-50% over most land areas despite increases in mean runoff. The probability density functions (PDFs) flatten, enhancing the drought increases induced primarily by decreases in the mean. Precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (E) changes contribute to the SM change; whereas decreases in sc_PDSI_pm result from ubiquitous PET increases of 10%-20% with contributions from decreased P over subtropical areas. Rising temperatures and vapor deficits explain most of the PET increase, which in turn explains most of the E increases over Asia and northern North America while decreased SM leads to lower E over the rest of the world. Radiation and wind speed changes have only small effects on future PET and drought. Globally, runoff ratio changes little while P, E, and R all increase by about 4%-5% in the twenty-first century.",The Magnitude and Causes of Global Drought Changes in the Twenty-First Century under a Low-Moderate Emissions Scenario,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2479540,"BACKGROUND: Emerging studies suggest that ambient temperature during pregnancy may be associated with fetal growth, but the existing evidence is limited and inconsistent. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the association of trimester-specific temperature with risk of being born small for gestational age (SGA) and birth weight-markers of fetal growth-among term births in the contiguous United States. METHODS: We included data on 29,597,735 live singleton births between 1989 and 2002 across 403 U.S. counties. We estimated daily county-level population-weighted mean temperature using a spatially refined gridded climate data set. We used logistic regression to estimate the association between trimester-specific temperature and risk of SGA and linear regression to evaluate the association between trimester-specific temperature and term birth weight z-score, adjusting for parity, maternal demographics, smoking or drinking during pregnancy, chronic hypertension, and year and month of conception. We then pooled results overall and by geographic regions and climate zones. REstrurs: High ambient temperatures (>90th percentile) during the entire pregnancy were associated with higher risk of term SGA (odds ratio [OR] = 1.041 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.029, 1.054] ) and lower term birth weight [standardized to -15 g (95% CI: -17 g, -13 g) reduction in birth weight for infants born at 40 weeks of gestation]. Low temperatures (<10th percentile) during the entire pregnancy were not associated with SGA [OR = 1.003 (95% CI: 0.991, 1.015)] but were associated with a small decrement in term birth weight [standardized to -6 g (95% CI: -8 g, -4 g)]. Risks of term SGA and birth weight were more strongly associated with temperature averaged across the second and third trimesters, in areas the Northeast, and in areas with cold or very cold climates. CONCLUSIONS: Above-average temperatures during pregnancy were associated with lower fetal growth. Our findings provide evidence that temperature may be a novel risk factor for reduced fetal growth.",Ambient Temperature and Markers of Fetal Growth: A Retrospective Observational Study of 29 Million US Singleton Births,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+516939,"The English Channel is located at the biogeographical boundary between the northern Boreal and southern Lusitanian biozones and therefore represents an important area to study the effects of global warming on marine organisms. While the consequences of climatic change in the western English Channel have been relatively well documented for fish, plankton and inter-tidal benthic communities, data highlighting the same effects on the distribution of sub-littoral benthic organisms does, to date, not exist. The present study resurveyed a subset of sites originally surveyed from 1958 to 1959 along the UK coast of the English Channel. The main aims of this resurvey were to describe the present status of benthic communities and to investigate potential temporal changes, in particular distributional changes in western stenothermal 'cold' water and southern Lusitanian 'warm' water species. The increase in water temperature observed since the historic survey was predicted to have caused a contraction in the distribution of cold water species and an extension in the distribution of warm water species. The temporal comparison did not show any clear broad-scale distributional changes in benthic communities consistent with these predictions. Nevertheless, 2 warm water species, the sting winkle Ocenebra erinacea and the introduced American slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata, did show range extensions and increased occurrence, possibly related to climatic warming. Similarly, warm water species previously not recorded by the historic survey were found. The absence of broad-scale temporal differences in sub-tidal communities in response to climatic warming has been reported for other areas and may indicate that these communities respond far more slowly to environmental changes compared to plankton, fish and inter- tidal organisms.",Temporal differences across a bio-geographical boundary reveal slow response of sub-littoral benthos to climate change,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3711373,"Bias correction is usually applied to climate model outputs before they are used as inputs to environmental models for impact studies. Every climate model is post-processed independently of others to account for biases originating from model structure and internal variability. To better understand the role of internal variability, multi-member ensembles (multiple runs of a single climate model, with identical forcing but different initial conditions) have now become common in the modeling community. Bias correcting such ensembles requires specific considerations. Correcting all members of such an ensemble independently would force all of them to the target distribution, thus removing the signature of natural variability over the calibration period. How this undesirable effect would propagate onto subsequent time periods is unknown. This study proposes three bias correction variants of a multi-member ensemble and compares their performances against an independent correction of each individual member of the ensemble. The comparison is based on precipitation and temperature, as well as on resulting streamflows simulated by a hydrological model. Two multi-member ensembles (5-member CanESM2 and 10-member CSIRO-MK3.6) were used for a subtropical monsoon watershed in China. The results show that all bias correction methods reduce precipitation and temperature biases for all ensemble members. As expected, independent correction reduces the spread of each ensemble over the calibration period. This is, however, followed by an overestimation of the spread over the subsequent validation period. Pooling all members to calculate common bias correction factors produces the best results over the calibration period; however, the difference among three bias correction variants becomes less clear over the validation period due to internal variability, and even less so when considering streamflows, as the impact model adds its own uncertainty.",Bias correcting climate model multi-member ensembles to assess climate change impacts on hydrology,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1854128,"This paper examines smallholder farmers' perceptions of climate change, climate variability and their impacts, and adaptation strategies adopted over the past three decades. We use ethnographic analysis, combined with Cumulative Departure Index (CDI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) analysis, and correlation analysis to compare farmers' perceptions in Southwestern Nigeria with historical meteorological data, in order to assess the way farmers' observations mirror the climatic trends. The results show that about 67% of farmers who participated had observed recent changes in climate. Perceptions of rural farmers on climate change and variability are consistent with the climatic trend analysis. RAI and CDI results illustrate that not less than 11 out of 30 years in each study site experienced lower-than-normal rainfall. Climatic trends show fluctuations in both early growing season (EGS) and late growing season (LGS) rainfall and the 5-year moving average suggests a reduction in rainfall over the 30 years. Climatic trends confirmed farmers' perceptions that EGS and LGS precipitations are oscillating, that rainfall onset is becoming later, and EGS rainfall is reducing. Overall impacts of climate change on both crops and livestock appear to be highly negative, much more on maize (62.8%), yam (52.2%), poultry (67%) and cattle (63.2%). Years of farming experiences and level of income of farmers appear to have a significant relationship with farmers' choice of adaptation strategies, with r >= 0.60@ p < 0.05 and r >= 0.520@ p < 0.05 respectively. The study concluded that farmers' perceptions of climate change mirror meteorological analysis, though their perceptions were based on local climate parameters. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to climate change since the majority of them do not have enough resources to cope.",Comparing smallholder farmers' perception of climate change with meteorological data: A case study from southwestern Nigeria,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+322373,"Increasing temperatures and recent changes in runoff regimes observed in Central Europe might alter the growth and relative water uptake of floodplain trees. To predict responses of floodplain forests to climate change, it is necessary to determine the climatic controls over tree growth and vessel anatomy. We analysed the responses of tree-ring width and earlywood vessel anatomical parameters (average vessel lumen area, vessel density and total vessel lumen area) of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) growing in a floodplain to hydroclimatic conditions represented by temperature, the drought index (scPDSI), river discharge, groundwater level, and occurrence of floods and drought events. Site chronologies were assembled for floodplain and reference sites and, subsequently, correlated with time series of hydroclimatic conditions. Our results show that radial growth of floodplain trees is particularly positively influenced by temperature during the growing season and during previous year's summer. By contrast, the growth of reference trees is highly drought-limited. Earlywood average vessel lumen area chronologies from both floodplain and reference sites share a positive temperature signal from January to April. However, the effect of water availability (indicated by the drought index) on vessel size is mostly negative for floodplain trees (with a maximum response to the autumn of the year preceding tree-ring formation) and positive or non-significant for reference trees. Vessel density chronologies contain the inverse environmental information as tree-ring width, however, with amplified negative correlations with current year temperatures at floodplain sites. Total vessel area is associated mostly with temperature in previous May and June. The drought index recorded exactly the same information in tree-rings as did river discharges and groundwater levels. The results of both correlation and trend analysis evidence that tree-ring width of floodplain Q, robur unambiguously increases with increasing temperature; on the other hand, droughts can become a serious problem affecting the productivity of reference trees growing in more distal parts of the lowland. Vessel size of Q. robur growing outside the floodplain recently tends to increase with increasing temperatures, making xylem more effective at water transport but also more vulnerable to cavitation. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Response of floodplain pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) tree-ring width and vessel anatomy to climatic trends and extreme hydroclimatic events,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+658262,"The jet stream over the eastern North Pacific (ENPJ) as a core of the atmospheric flow is known to strongly fluctuate meridionally, and its meridional displacement directly influences adjacent regional climate. Here, we investigate how this jet will be changed due to global warming. By analyzing the future scenario experiments of Climate Model Intercomparion Project Phase III (CMIP3) and Phase V (5), it was found that both ENPJ and the eastern tropical Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) tend to move southward, which are closely related to the tropical eastern Pacific warming trend. Tropical eastern Pacific warming leads to not only the southward migration of ITCZ by southward-shifting the off-equatorial eastern Pacific warm pool, but also the southward shift of ENPJ by increasing baroclinic instability of the atmosphere in subtropical region through intensifying the meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. Not primary but yet secondly the southward shift of ITCZ contributes to the southward shift of ENPJ through a kinematic connection bridged by local Hadley circulation.",Southward displacement of the upper atmosphere zonal jet in the eastern north Pacific due to global warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+63485,"Climate change has the potential to alter streamflow regimes, having ecological, economic, and societal implications. In the northeastern United States, it is unclear how climate change may affect surface water supply, which is of critical importance in this densely populated region. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the timing and quantity of streamflow at small watersheds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. The site is ideal for this analysis because of the availability of long-term hydroclimatological records for analyzing past trends and ample data to parameterize and test hydrological models used to predict future trends. In this study, future streamflow projections were developed with the forest watershed model PnET-BGC, driven by climate change scenarios from statistically downscaled outputs of atmospheric-ocean general circulation models. Results indicated that earlier snowmelt and the diminishing snowpack is advancing the timing and reducing the magnitude of peak discharge associated with snowmelt. Past increases in precipitation have caused annual water yield to increase significantly, a trend that is expected to continue under future climate change. Significant declines in evapotranspiration have been observed over the long-term record, although the cause has not been identified. In the future, evapotranspiration is expected to increase in response to a warmer and wetter environment. These increases in evapotranspiration largely offset increases in precipitation, resulting in relatively little change in streamflow. Future work should aim to decrease uncertainty in the climate projections, particularly for precipitation, obtain a better understanding of the effect of CO2 on vegetation, determine if climate-induced changes in tree species composition will influence discharge, and assess the impacts of changing hydrology on downstream water supplies.","Streamflow responses to past and projected future changes in climate at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, United States",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2308546,"Urbanization is a significant driver of global change, reshaping livelihoods, productive activities, and incomes. Yet, many elements of what are typically regarded as rural activities can be found in urban places and vice versa. We report on the incomes from land- and cash-based activities along the rural urban gradient of two South African towns. Although the dominant income strategies varied, all households had more than one income source. Use of wild resources and agriculture were common in urban settings, although variable between and within towns. Poverty levels would be 5-10% higher in the absence of natural resource-based incomes. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Natural Resource Use, Incomes, and Poverty Along the Rural-Urban Continuum of Two Medium-Sized, South African Towns",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2306283,"PurposeEnvironmental burden caused by an organization occurs both within its boundaries and in its value chain. Organizational life cycle assessment (LCA) was proposed as a method for calculating impacts of an organization throughout its life cycle; nevertheless, companies are still lacking a universal approach to conduct inventory analysis and face challenges in data collection. This paper introduces a hybrid approach for compiling the inventory for the indirect activities on organizational level in an effective manner.MethodsThree existing accounting methods (namely product related, process based, and monetary based) are connected within the hybrid approach. The potential to apply each method for an indirect activity is analyzed with regard to the system boundary requirements and availability of activity data and emission factors. The calculation procedures are introduced for selected activities. The advantages and limitations of the hybridization on organizational level are discussed. The developed approach is applied in a case study to the automotive supplier Brose Fahrzeugteile GmbH & Co.KG.Results and discussionThe framework for application of the hybrid approach including the required activity data and emission factors for every indirect activity and each accounting method is provided. The product-related and process-based methods are recommended as more robust; nevertheless, hybridization with the monetary-based method might be essential for compiling a comprehensive inventory by limited data availability. Such limitations as double counting, truncation error, and insufficient data resolution may influence the results and should be considered when applying the hybrid approach. The case study demonstrated that the proposed approach allowed establishing an inventory for all relevant indirect activities. However, due to missing emission factors, only the impact category climate change was calculated for all activities; acidification and water use were quantified for six activities.ConclusionsThe introduced hybrid approach enables selecting the most suitable accounting method for the indirect activities depending on data availability. This promotes application of the organizational life cycle assessment in particular for small and medium enterprises and companies that do not have access to the commercial LCA datasets. Availability of the emission factors for all impact categories in public databases is essential to provide robust results using the hybrid approach.","Hybrid approach for the evaluation of organizational indirect impacts (AVOID): combining product-related, process-based, and monetary-based methods",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+739509,"Multiannual variation is one of several types of species morphological variability, one that is directly related to ecophenotypic and evolutionary responses to changing environments. The morphology of small mammal populations can change quickly because generation length is short, usually one year, and individual lifespans are often only a year or two. We studied the response of skull and mandible morphology in the common shrew Sorex araneus Linnaeus, 1758 to nine climate factors related to snow cover, temperature and precipitation at a study site near Syktyvkar, Russia through the period 1976 to 2003. We found that these multivariate phenotypes changed significantly from year to year, though there were no clear directional trends in the change. The phenotype itself was closely associated with the range of annual temperature and winter precipitation. Changes in summer temperatures and precipitation seem to drive change in size-related phenotypes, whereas changes in snow cover and winter temperature seem to drive change in shape.",Climate and morphological change on decadal scales: Multiannual variation in the common shrew Sorex araneus in northeast Russia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+72305,"Anew dataset of historical monthly streamflow at the farthest downstream stations for the world's 925 largest ocean-reaching rivers has been created for community use. Available new gauge records are added to a network of gauges that covers similar to 80 x 10(6) km(2) or similar to 80% of global ocean-draining land areas and accounts for about 73% of global total runoff. For most of the large rivers, the record for 1948-2004 is fairly complete. Data gaps in the records are filled through linear regression using streamflow simulated by a land surface model [ Community Land Model, version 3 (CLM3)] forced with observed precipitation and other atmospheric forcings that are significantly ( and often strongly) correlated with the observed streamflow for most rivers. Compared with previous studies, the new dataset has improved homogeneity and enables more reliable assessments of decadal and long-term changes in continental freshwater discharge into the oceans. The model-simulated runoff ratio over drainage areas with and without gauge records is used to estimate the contribution from the areas not monitored by the gauges in deriving the total discharge into the global oceans. Results reveal large variations in yearly streamflow for most of the world's large rivers and for continental discharge, but only about one-third of the top 200 rivers ( including the Congo, Mississippi, Yenisey, Parana, Ganges, Columbia, Uruguay, and Niger) show statistically significant trends during 1948-2004, with the rivers having downward trends ( 45) outnumbering those with upward trends ( 19). The interannual variations are correlated with the El Nino-SouthernnOscillation (ENSO) events for discharge into the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, and global ocean as a whole. For ocean basins other than the Arctic, and for the global ocean as a whole, the discharge data show small or downward trends, which are statistically significant for the Pacific (-9.4 km(3) yr(-1)). Precipitation is a major driver for the discharge trends and large interannual-to-decadal variations. Comparisons with the CLM3 simulation suggest that direct human influence on annual streamflow is likely small compared with climatic forcing during 1948-2004 for most of the world's major rivers. For the Arctic drainage areas, upward trends in streamflow are not accompanied by increasing precipitation, especially over Siberia, based on available data, although recent surface warming and associated downward trends in snow cover and soil ice content over the northern high latitudes contribute to increased runoff in these regions. The results are qualitatively consistent with climate model projections but contradict an earlier report of increasing continental runoff during the recent decades based on limited records.",Changes in Continental Freshwater Discharge from 1948 to 2004,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+198569,"This paper applies city-specific mortality relationships for extremely hot and cold temperatures for 33 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the United States to develop mortality projections for historical and potential future climates. These projections, which cover roughly 100 million of 310 million U.S. residents in 2010, highlight a potential change in health risks from uncontrolled climate change and the potential benefits of a greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy. Our analysis reveals that projected mortality from extremely hot and cold days combined increases significantly over the 21st century because of the overwhelming increase in extremely hot days. We also find that the evaluated GHG mitigation policy could substantially reduce this risk. These results become more pronounced when accounting for projected population changes. These results challenge arguments that there could be a mortality benefit attributable to changes in extreme temperatures from future warming. This finding of a net increase in mortality also holds in an analog city sensitivity analysis that incorporates a strong adaptation assumption. While our results do not address all sources of uncertainty, their scale and scope highlight one component of the potential health risks of unmitigated climate change impacts on extreme temperatures and draw attention to the need to continue to refine analytical tools and methods for this type of analysis.",Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas in the United States,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1906352,"In this study, we investigate changes in future streamflows in California using bias-corrected and routed streamflows derived from global climate model (GCM) simulations under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Unlike previous studies that have focused mainly on the mean streamflow, annual maxima or seasonality, we focus on projected changes across the distribution of streamflow and the underlying causes. We report opposing trends in the two tails of the future streamflow simulations: lower low flows and higher high flows with no change in the overall mean of future flows relative to the historical baseline (statistically significant at 0.05 level). Furthermore, results show that streamflow is projected to increase during most of the rainy season (December to March) while it is expected to decrease in the rest of the year (i.e., wetter rainy seasons, and drier dry seasons). We argue that the projected changes to streamflow in California are driven by the expected changes to snow patterns and precipitation extremes in a warming climate. Changes to future low flows and extreme high flows can have significant implications for water resource planning, drought management, and infrastructure design and risk assessment.",A new normal for streamflow in California in a warming climate: Wetter wet seasons and drier dry seasons,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+140573,"The influence of climatic variables (rainfall, temperature and evaporation rates) and lake water levels on the stocks of the sardine fish species Limnothrissa miodon (Boulenger), commonly known as Kapenta in Lake Kariba, was investigated. Secondary data of the climatic variables, water levels and fish catches recorded from 1963 to 2008 were analysed to determine their trends over time as well as the relationships among them. The analyses showed that rainfall is decreasing at a rate of 0.63 mm per year around Lake Kariba, while evaporation rates have increased by 31% at an average rate of 2.77 mm per year since 1963. The temperatures around the Kariba area have been rising since 1964; with the maximum range increasing at a faster rate than the minimum temperatures. Kapenta fish production has decreased significantly (R2=0.85, P≤0.05) since 1974 at an average rate of 24.19 metric tons per year. This pattern of decrease was also observed in the artisanal fish catches that have declined at an average rate of 37.26 metric tons per year between 1974 and 2003. All the climatic factors as well as the water levels could explain variations in the Kapenta fish catches with the water levels exerting the greatest influence (R2=0.84, P 0.05); followed by maximum temperature (R2= 0.72, P≤0.05), evaporation and rainfall. In turn, water levels are largely influenced by climate with temperature and rainfall explaining a significant portion of the variation in the water levels (R2=0.99, and R2=0.93, P≤0.05) in that order. This suggests that both climate (maximum temperature in particular) and nutrients, which are influenced by water levels, are the primary determinants of Lake Kariba's Kapenta production. Concerning are the possibilities that a changing climate in and around the lake may continue to adversely affect water levels, the stratification cycle, nutrient fluxes and the Kapenta fish production in the lake. © 2011 Taylor &amp; Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.","The implications of a changing climate on the kapenta fish stocks of lake kariba, zimbabwe",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+456493,"High biological productivity combined with the poor ventilation produces severe oxygen depletion (hypoxia) in upper intermediate waters of the Arabian Sea. The naturally developed Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) is one of the most pronounced low oxygen ocean environments known today. The OMZ impinges the Indian margin where oxygen concentration reaches values less than 0.05 ml/l leading denitrification. In recent studies, it has been observed that the OMZ strength has varied considerably in the past, in tune with the global climate change. But the effect of changes in natural mid-water hypoxic environment on the marine biota particularly of the eastern Arabian Sea is unknown. Here, we analyzed 30,000 yr record of temporal changes in two major groups of marine calcifying microfauna pteropods secreting aragonitic shells and foraminifera secreting calcitic shells in terms of abundance and diversity variations. This study will provide an insight into our understanding of potential impact of rising atmospheric CO(2) on marine ecosystem.",Impact of climate induced hypoxia on calcifying biota in the Arabian Sea: An evaluation from the micropaleontological records of the Indian margin,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+721931,"This study analyzes long-term climate and glacier records to examine climate change and glacier response over the past 45 years in Urumqi River source region, the Tianshan Mountains of China. The results show that summer temperature and annual precipitation near the glacier increased by 0.8 degrees C and 87 mm (19%), respectively, during the study period. The glacier continuously retreated from 1962 to 2003, with the cumulated mass balance being - 10,032 mm, or 20% of the glacier volume. Annual basin runoff has significantly increased by 413 mm or 62% during 1980 - 2003 due to precipitation increase and enhanced glacier melt caused by summer climate warming. Both summer precipitation and temperate are negatively correlated with mass balance and positively associated with runoff. Relative to precipitation-mass balance relation, the regression between temperature and mass balance is much stronger, indicating that summer temperature controls glacier mass balance and runoff changes.","The Urumqi River source Glacier No. 1, Tianshan, China: Changes over the past 45 years",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+395686,"Permafrost consists of soil and rocks that remain at 0 degrees C or below for at least two consecutive years. In mountains, permafrost ground ice acts like cement, stabilizing rock walls. Its degradation, following climate warming, may lead to slope instability in high mountains and damage to infrastructure, so knowledge about its evolution is essential for risk analysis. In pure solids, heat is transferred by conduction, but permafrost ground is also subject to non-conductive fluxes, and heat transfers are influenced by factors such as air temperature and snow cover, so a deterministic scheme cannot fully describe heat propagation. Current approaches to modelling use numerical models involving heat conduction schemes and energy balance models, requiring data on quantities such as relative humidity and radiation. We describe a stochastic treatment of the heat equation, which adapts to space-time changes in heat transfers driven by factors such as air temperature and snow cover, without requiring corresponding data, as part of a statistical model. The flexibility and performance of our approach are illustrated using data from two boreholes in the Swiss Alps, which show the strong influence of snow cover on ground temperature and the long-term degradation of permafrost produced by the 2003 heat wave.",Statistical modelling of ground temperature in mountain permafrost,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1397266,"The results from long-term simulations with a climate model using historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are used to study Antarctic accumulation rates and their relationship, or sensitivity, to temperature changes. The model used has a horizontal resolution of approximately 2 degrees by 2 degrees. The SST data comprise reconstructed monthly values on a global grid for the period 1950-91. The results yield an estimate for the area-averaged value accumulation rate over grounded ice of 160-180 mm we. a(-1). The spatial pattern of the simulated trends over the period of integration indicates that the results for much of East Antarctica are consistent with evidence deduced from ice cores. The ice-sheet surface is estimated to have warmed by +0.73 degrees C (a rate of +0.18 degrees C per decade), while the accumulation rate is estimated to have increased by +7.7 mm a(-1) (a rate of +1.9 mm a(-1) per decade). The estimate for sensitivity is +12.5 mm a(-1) pu degree of. warming, which can be interpreted as about -0.4 mm of sea level pet year.",Model estimates of Antarctic accumulation rates and their relationship to temperature changes,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+299446,"In this era of climate change, understanding past and predicting future fire activity are scientific challenges that are central to the development of sustainable forest management practices and policies. Such objectives, however, are difficult to achieve for several reasons. Uncertainties about future fire activity can be superimposed on the short time period covered by existing meteorological data and fire statistics, from which a historical range of variability can be determined. Regional fire activity is also tremendously variable over time, such that contemporary fire records cannot provide information on the full range of fire activity variability a given forest experienced and adapted to. This factor is increasingly important when it comes to determining the resilience of boreal forests to changes in climate and disturbance regimes. In this paper, we present a synthesis of past, present and future trends in seasonal fire danger and fire activity based on data gathered in eastern Canadian boreal forests over the last 20 years, and we provide a critical assessment of the ability to conduct sustainable forest management over the 21st century. The data synthesis provides compelling evidence of a synchronous pattern of decreasing fire-conducive climatic conditions and activity of large fire seasons over the last 2000 years in the eastern coniferous boreal forest. Model simulations suggest that the climate will become drier in upcoming decades, driving future fire activity close to the upper bound of the pre-industrial range of variability. The effects of increasing fire incidence cumulated with forest harvesting may thus pose a risk to forest resilience in the future. This ecological knowledge should help us to define forest management strategies and practices considering future fire activity changes forecasted under climate change. Development of alternative silvicultural interventions that would emulate secondary disturbances (e.g. wind, insects) rather than fire would be necessary to maintain pre-industrial forest characteristics (e.g. composition and age class distribution), and associated forest resilience. Crown Copyright (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Fire in managed forests of eastern Canada: Risks and options,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+235478,"The elevational tree-line change within the transitional zone between boreal forest and Mongolian steppes was quantified for the last millennium. The basic approach included studies along transects and measurements of tree-line positions to identify current, historical, refugee and regeneration tree lines. Tree mortality and natality were determined based on dendrochronology analysis. Tree mortality in the sixteenth to eighteenth centuries coincided with the Little Ice Age, while tree establishment was stimulated by warming at the end of nineteenth century. Downward shifts in tree line varied by an order of magnitude. The current tree-line position reoccupied the historical tree line in some transects, and was below or above the historical line in others. The regeneration line surpassed the historical tree line by 91 +/- 46 m (mean +/- SD). Such a heterogeneous response was attributed to local topoclimatic conditions and sapling recruitment efficiency. A mean annual 1 degrees C increase in temperature was associated with an upward shift of the tree line by about 70 m. The upward migration rate of the current tree line was about 0.8 m year-1 during the last century. The regeneration migration rate was about 2.3 m year-1 over the past three decades. Finally, the transformation of krummholz forms of larch and Siberian pine into arborescent form was documented.",Climate-induced mountain tree-line evolution in southern Siberia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3949995,"Fish, Noemacheilus barbatulus (stone loach), of different body weights were used to study rates of uptake and loss of cadmium during and after dietary exposure. Fish were kept singly in a continuous-flow system, and fed tubificid worms. The worms had a range of cadmium levels, but all levels were below that needed to cause acute lethal toxicity in the fish. Body weight affected both the maintenance ration and the amount of food consumed ad libitum, but the exponent for body weight (0.78+/-0.04), relating body weight to food consumption, was unaffected by either temperature or the size of feeding ration. The cadmium content of the worms did not affect the size of the maintenance ration. Metal burden in fish changed rapidly both during and after exposure. After exposure, the cadmium burden of starved fish usually declined more rapidly than in fed fish. A 58-fold increase in cadmium content in the food produced a 28% increase of body burden in the fish, and there was no evidence for biomagnification. Maintenance ration and ration ad libitum and rates of uptake and loss of cadmium increased with temperature within the range 8-18 degrees C, but exposure to cadmium at 16 degrees C yielded a higher asymptotic body burden than either 8 degrees C or 18 degrees C. Rate constants for loss of cadmium after exposure appear to be lower than for loss during exposure. Rates of uptake and loss of cadmium vary with metabolic rate. A maximum in the rate of oxygen consumption was measured at 16 degrees C, above which the rate dropped, presumably due to stress. The exponent for body weight was unaffected by activity or temperature. Body weight of fish appeared to affect both the rates of uptake and loss of cadmium, and feeding rations and respiration to the same extent: body weight exponents were not dissimilar.",Metabolic rate and uptake and loss of cadmium from food by the fish Noemacheilus barbatulus L. (stone loach).,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+631666,"Concerns about global warming led to the calculation of the carbon footprint (CF) left by human activities. The agricultural sector is a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, though cropland soils can also act as sinks. So far, most LCA studies on agricultural products have not considered changes in soil organic matter (SOM). This paper aimed to: (1) integrate the H,nin-Dupuis SOM model into the CF study and (2) outline the impacts of different vineyard soil management scenarios on the overall CF. A representative wine chain in the Maremma Rural District, Tuscany (Italy), made up of a cooperative winery and nine of its associated farms, was selected to investigate the production of a non-aged, high-quality red wine. The system boundary was established from vineyard planting to waste management after use. The functional unit (FU) chosen for this study was a 0.75-L bottle of wine, and all data refer to the year 2009. The SOM balance, based on H,nin-Dupuis' equation, was integrated and run using GaBi4 software. A sensitivity analysis was performed, and four scenarios were developed to assess the impact of vineyard soil management types with decreasing levels of organic matter inputs. SOM accounting reduced the overall CF of one wine bottle from 0.663 to 0.531 kg CO2-eq/FU. The vineyard planting sub-phase produced a loss of SOM while, in the pre-production and production sub-phases, the loss/accumulation of SOM was related to the soil management practices. On average, soil management in the production sub-phase led to a net accumulation of SOM, and the overall vineyard phase was a sink of CO2. Residue incorporation and grassing were identified as the main factors affecting changes in SOM in vineyard soils. Our results showed that incorporating SOM accounting into the wine chain's CF analysis changed the vineyard phase from a GHG source to a modest net GHG sink. These results highlighted the need to include soil C dynamics in the CF of the agricultural product. Here, the SOM balance method proposed was sensitive to changes in management practices and was site specific. Moreover, we were also able to define a minimum data set for SOM accounting. The EU recognises soil carbon sequestration as one of the major European strategies for mitigation. However, specific measures have yet to be included in the CAP 2020. It would be desirable to include soil in the new ISO 14067-Carbon Footprint of Products.",Soil organic matter accounting in the carbon footprint analysis of the wine chain,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+550949,"Pursuant to the growth of society, against the boosting of scientific and technological progress, also arises the negative effect of pollution acceleration. In this context, we relate to risks that imply the growth of pollution, especially against nuisance air pollution increase (CO, SO2, NO etc.) with major implications on the growth of greenhouse effect, the melting of the ice fields, respectively the pollution of the soil with nitrates from fertilizers intensively used in agriculture. Our study is up-to-date, as pursuant to the ONU Conference from Paris (France 2015, Conference on Climate Changes), they reached an agreement and the adopted text admits the menace of climate modifications is far more important than previously acknowledged and engages the participants to reduce their pollutant emissions. The researchers' current concerns focus on studying the effects of the redistribution of financial resources obtained by practising the 'green' fiscal policy on dependent variables. Observing them, we integrate the respective variables into complex models analysed by multiple regression (both standard and robust) and the fixed effects panel on 20 European countries which also reflect the different effects on the environmental policy and the expenses it incurred. The main purpose of the analysis we aim to accomplish is the impact of the policy for environment expenditure tenable within the European framework on against nuisance air pollution attenuation. The statistical analysis aims at identifying these effects by means of regression equations (OLS), robust regression (M method), fixed and random effects, using panel data from 18 EU countries, as well as Switzerland and Turkey due to their position in relation to the community block; we will analyse the period between 1995-2013. Further to the application of multiple regression statistical methods (OLS and robust M), our results show that teimiqgdp expenses played a major role in the reduction of carbon monoxide. These are the total investments made in the mining sector; when these expenses were raised by 1% of the GDP value, there was a decrease of 11 628.3 thousand tons Cot at the level of the European countries analysed, according to the result of the OLS analysis, based on the robust M estimation.","IMPACT OF SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENTAL EXPENDITURES POLICY ON AIR POLLUTION REDUCTION, DURING EUROPEAN INTEGRATION FRAMEWORK",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+593872,"In 1948, a small colony of emperor penguins Aptenodytes forsteri was discovered breeding on Emperor Island (67 degrees 51' 52 '' S, 68 degrees 42' 20 '' W), in the Dion Islands, close to the West Antarctic Peninsula (Stonehouse 1952). When discovered, the colony comprised approximately 150 breeding pairs; these numbers were maintained until 1970, after which time the colony showed a continuous decline. By 1999 there were fewer than 20 pairs, and in 2009 high-resolution aerial photography revealed no remaining trace of the colony. Here we relate the decline and loss of the Emperor Island colony to a well-documented rise in local mean annual air temperature and coincident decline in seasonal sea ice duration. The loss of this colony provides empirical support for recent studies (Barbraud & Weimerskirch 2001; Jenouvrier et al 2005, 2009; Ainley et al 2010; Barber-Meyer et al 2005) that have highlighted the vulnerability of emperor penguins to changes in sea ice duration and distribution. These studies suggest that continued climate change is likely to impact upon future breeding success and colony viability for this species. Furthermore, a recent circumpolar study by Fretwell & Trathan (2009) highlighted those Antarctic coastal regions where colonies appear most vulnerable to such changes. Here we examine which other colonies might be at risk, discussing various ecological factors, some previously unexplored, that may also contribute to future declines. The implications of this are important for future modelling work and for understanding which colonies actually are most vulnerable.",First Recorded Loss of an Emperor Penguin Colony in the Recent Period of Antarctic Regional Warming: Implications for Other Colonies,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+271482,"Drought occurrence is analyzed over global land areas for 1950-2000 using soil moisture data from a simulation of the terrestrial water cycle with the Variable Infiltration Capacity ( VIC) land surface model, which is forced by an observation based meteorological data set. A monthly drought index based on percentile soil moisture values relative to the 50-year climatology is analyzed in terms of duration, intensity and severity at global and regional scales. Short-term droughts (<= 6 months) are prevalent in the Tropics and midlatitudes, where inter-annual climate variability is highest. Medium term droughts ( 7-12 months) are more frequent in mid- to high-latitudes. Long term ( 12+ months) droughts are generally restricted to sub-Saharan Africa and higher northern latitudes. The Sahel region stands out for having experienced long-term and severe drought conditions. Severe regional drought events are systematically identified in terms of spatial coverage, based on different thresholds of duration and intensity. For example, in northern Europe, 1996 and 1975 were the years of most extensive 3- and 12-month duration drought, respectively. In northern Asia, severe drought events are characterized by persistent soil moisture anomalies over the wintertime. The drought index identifies several well-known events, including the 1988 US, 1982/83 Australian, 1983/4 Sahel and 1965/66 Indian droughts which are generally ranked as the severest and most spatially extensive in the record. Comparison with the PDSI shows general agreement at global scales and for these major events but they diverge considerably in cooler regions and seasons, and especially in latter years when the PDSI shows a larger drying trend.","Characteristics of global and regional drought, 1950-2000: Analysis of soil moisture data from off-line simulation of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+717205,"During 2002-2013, we surveyed butterflies in three types of bogs (pristine but naturally fragmented). Of the 75 bogs surveyed, we established 29 bogs and 5 bog roadsides as long-term sites visited annually for 9-15 years. We studied patterns of ten butterfly species' flight periods, annual variation, trend in abundance over time, and abundance with respect to climatic variables. First observed date per year varied more for spring than summer species. Jutta arctic Oeneis jutta varied between dramatically high numbers in odd years and low numbers in even years in northeast Wisconsin. Elsewhere, Jutta arctic varied less between odd and even years, but muskegs had higher numbers in even than odd years, significantly so in north central Wisconsin. The most abundant bog affiliate (tyrphophile), brown elfin Callophrys augustinus, exhibited cyclic abundance over a 4-5 year period. The other species varied greatly in abundance among years but not in as distinctive annual patterns. The most northern specialist (tyrphobiont), purplish fritillary Boloria montinus, declined strongly. Its abundance significantly related to higher precipitation but not to temperature. Population trends for the seven other tyrphobionts did not relate to how southerly their ranges are. Trends in roadsides were less favorable than in bogs. Butterfly abundance had more significant correlations to climate variables related to moisture than to temperature. Based on abundance relationships to climate, a majority of the study species allied as dry steppe species (increasing in warmer, drier periods) and a minority as wetland species (increasing in cooler, wetter periods). The overriding factors determining the future of this butterfly fauna appear to be habitat degradation and potential climate change beyond the range of variation typically experienced in this region between glaciations.",Assessing abundance patterns of specialized bog butterflies over 12 years in northern Wisconsin USA,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3931603,"Response surface methodology was used to determine the effects of solvent flow rate (2, 3 and 4 g/min), pressure (30, 37.5 and 45 MPa), temperature (40, 50 and 60°C), and co-solvent concentration (0, 1.5 and 3 wt% ethanol) on oil yield of apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) kernel oil in supercritical carbon dioxide (SC-CO2). All the parameters had significant effects on oil yield as well as the interactions between solvent flow rate and pressure, and between pressure and temperature. Oil yield increased with increased parameters. The oil yield was represented by a second-degree polynomial equation. The maximum oil yield from the response surface equation was obtained as 0.26 g/g kernel for 15 min extraction of 5 g apricot kernel particles (particle diameter&lt;0.850 mm) with 4 g/min solvent flow rate containing 3 wt% ethanol at 45 MPa and 60oC. The response surface equation predicted the experimental oil yield with a 10% error. The fatty acid compositions of apricot kernel oils extracted with SC-CO2 and hexane were similar. © 2004 Swiss Society of Food Science and Technology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Response surfaces of apricot kernel oil yield in supercritical carbon dioxide,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+663268,"Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) growth in the Pacific Northwest is affected,by climatic, edaphic factors and Swiss needle cast (SNC) disease. We examine Douglas-fir growth responses to temperature, dewpoint deficit (DPD), soil moisture, and SNC using time series intervention analysis of intra-annual tree-ring width data collected at nine forest stands in western Oregon, USA. Air temperature, previous-year DPD and SNC and their interactions were the primary factors influencing tree growth at all sites, whereas other key seasonal climatic factors limiting growth varied by site. Winter temperature was more important at high elevation cool sites, whereas summer temperature was more important at warm and dry sites. Growth rate increased with summer temperature to an optimum (T-opt) then decreased at higher temperatures. At drier sites, temperature and water affected growth interactively such that T-opt decreased with decreasing summer soil moisture. With increasing temperature due to climate change, growth rates increased at high elevation sites and declined at mid-elevation inland sites since 1990. Growth response to climate and SNC are confounded at all sites. We conclude that as temperature rises and precipitation patterns shift toward wetter winters and drier summers, Douglas-fir will experience greater temperature and water stress and an increase in severity of SNC. Published by Elsevier B.V.","Douglas-fir displays a range of growth responses to temperature, water, and Swiss needle cast in western Oregon, USA",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+692606,"With gradually progressing climate change in the future, the frequency and scale of hot summers like those observed in various places around the world in recent years will undoubtedly increase, giving rise to strong concerns over increased risk of death due to heat stress. Based on this background, we have developed a method to assess future changes in mortality due to heat stress with the entire globe as the target, and performed trial calculations using this method. The purpose of this report is to draw people's attention to the possible severe consequences of climate change by presenting the severest estimates in the uncertainty range due to adaptation/acclimation expected in the future, so as to induce further analysis and discussion on policies and measures. For the trial calculations, future changes in temperature were derived from the results of simulation using an Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model with the highest spatial resolution in the world at the time of the study. Population densities were assumed not to alter in the future. Assuming that no adaptation or acclimation takes place, when the rates of change of excess mortality due to heat stress are examined by country, the results of our calculations show increases of approximately 100% to 1000%. It is confirmed that the burden of climate change impact is quite unequal among countries, at least from the viewpoint of heat stress mortality. When considered together with present population densities, significant increases in excess mortality density can be seen in China, India, and Europe. These regions are characterized by large losses due to climate change in absolute quantitative terms. The need to consider the adoption of adaptation measures is therefore most urgent in these regions.",Assessing mortality risk from heat stress due to global warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+14479,"A simulation study was carried out to assess the potential sensitivity of wheat growth and water balance components to likely climate change scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia. Specific processes considered include crop development, growth rate, grain yield, water use efficiency, evapotranspiration, runoff and deep drainage. Individual impacts of changes in temperature, rainfall and CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and the combined impacts of these three variables were analysed for 2050 ([CO2] = 570 ppm, T +2.3A degrees C, P -7%) and 2070 ([CO2] = 720 ppm, T +3.8A degrees C, P -10%) conditions. Two different rainfall change scenarios (changes in rainfall intensity or rainfall frequency) were used to modify historical rainfall data. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to simulate the growth and water balance processes for a 117 year period of baseline, 2050 and 2070 climatic conditions. The results showed that wheat yield reduction caused by 1A degrees C increase in temperature and 10% decrease in rainfall could be compensated by a 266 ppm increase in [CO2] assuming no interactions between the individual effects. Temperature increase had little impact on long-term average water balance, while [CO2] increase reduced evapotranspiration and increased deep drainage. Length of the growing season of wheat decreased 22 days in 2050 and 35 days in 2070 conditions as a consequence of 2.3A degrees C and 3.8A degrees C increase in temperature respectively. Yield in 2050 was approximately 1% higher than the simulated baseline yield of 4,462 kg ha (-aEuro parts per thousand 1), but it was 6% lower in 2070. An early maturing cultivar (Hartog) was more sensitive in terms of yield response to temperature increase, while a mid-maturing cultivar (Janz) was more sensitive to rainfall reduction. Janz could benefit more from increase in CO2 concentration. Rainfall reduction across all rainfall events would have a greater negative impact on wheat yield and WUE than if only smaller rainfall events reduced in magnitude, even given the same total decrease in annual rainfall. The greater the reduction in rainfall, the larger was the difference. The increase in temperature increased the difference of impact between the two rainfall change scenarios while increase in [CO2] reduced the difference.",Modelling the sensitivity of wheat growth and water balance to climate change in Southeast Australia,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+44169,"Weather-related health effects have attracted renewed interest because of the observed and predicted climate change. The authors studied the short-term effects of cold weather on mortality in 15 European cities. The effects of minimum apparent temperature on cause- and age-specific daily mortality were assessed for the cold season (October-March) by using data from 1990-2000. For city-specific analysis, the authors used Poisson regression and distributed lag models, controlling for potential confounders. Meta-regression models summarized the results and explored heterogeneity. A 1 degrees C decrease in temperature was associated with a 1.35% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16,1.53) increase in the daily number of total natural deaths and a 1.72% (95% CI: 1.44, 2.01), 3.30% (95% CI: 2.61, 3.99), and 1.25% (95% CI: 0.77, 1.73) increase in cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular deaths, respectively. The increase was greater for the older age groups. The cold effect was found to be greater in warmer (southern) cities and persisted up to 23 days, with no evidence of mortality displacement. Cold-related mortality is an important public health problem across Europe. It should not be underestimated by public health authorities because of the recent focus on heat-wave episodes.",Effects of Cold Weather on Mortality: Results From 15 European Cities Within the PHEWE Project,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+46838,"Although running water is the dominant geomorphic agent on Earth, eolian processes can gain ascendancy in regions where the climate is arid, vegetation is sparse, and abundant sand is available for transport. With climate change, the boundaries between fluvial-dominated and eolian-dominated areas may shift. Although there have been few reports in the North American literature of river systems blocked by dune sand, our work in the Nebraska Sand Hills provides evidence of multiple episodes of such blockage events. During prolonged arid intervals in latest Pleistocene and middle Holocene time, eolian dune sand blocked two large valley systems in western Nebraska. These blockages raised the water table of the High Plains aquifer as much as 25 m over an area of 7000 km(2) and created over one thousand lakes. Wetlands far removed from the discharge points of the buried paleovalley system are strongly alkaline (exceeding 250 000 mg/L total dissolved solids [TDS]). Relatively fresh (280 mg/L TDS), flow-through lakes are present at the distal end of the system where the gradient of the water table is steep and the cross section of the buried valley is large. Anomalously thick marsh and lake sediments accumulated in deep paleovalleys upstream of dune dams near the southern margin of the Sand Hills. Our cores and radiocarbon dates from Blue and Crescent Lakes reveal their histories to be quite distinct from adjacent Swan Lake; these differences are best explained by multiple blockage events. Our work explains why lakes are most abundant in the driest part of the Sand Hills. It also provides another line of evidence for major dune activity in the Sand Hills region during Holocene time and shows that factors other than regional climate, specifically location, height, and hydraulic conductivity of dune dams, can control the rise and fall of the ground-water table and the chemistry of lakes.",DUNE-DAMMED PALEOVALLEYS OF THE NEBRASKA SAND HILLS - INTRINSIC VERSUS CLIMATIC CONTROLS ON THE ACCUMULATION OF LAKE AND MARSH SEDIMENTS,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+343011,"Nesting migratory geese are among the dominant herbivores in (sub) arctic environments, which have undergone unprecedented increases in temperatures and plant growing days over the last three decades. Within these regions, the Hudson Bay Lowlands are home to an overabundant breeding population of lesser snow geese that has dramatically damaged the ecosystem, with cascading effects at multiple trophic levels. In some areas the overabundance of geese has led to a drastic reduction in available forage. In addition, warming of this region has widened the gap between goose migration timing and plant green-up, and this mismatch between goose and plant phenologies could in turn affect gosling development. The dual effects of climate change and habitat quality on gosling body condition and juvenile survival are not known, but are critical for predicting population growth and related degradation of (sub) arctic ecosystems. To address these issues, we used information on female goslings marked and measured between 1978 and 2005 (4125 individuals). Goslings that developed within and near the traditional center of the breeding colony experienced the effects of long-term habitat degradation: body condition and juvenile survival declined over time. In newly colonized areas, however, we observed the opposite pattern (increase in body condition and juvenile survival). In addition, warmer than average winters and summers resulted in lower gosling body condition and first-year survival. Too few plant growing days in the spring relative to hatch led to similar results. Our assessment indicates that geese are recovering from habitat degradation by moving to newly colonized locales. However, a warmer climate could negatively affect snow goose populations in the long-run, but it will depend on which seasons warm the fastest. These antagonistic mechanisms will require further study to help predict snow goose population dynamics and manage the trophic cascade they induce.","Climate change, phenology, and habitat degradation: drivers of gosling body condition and juvenile survival in lesser snow geese",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+220019,"Aims Recent studies revealed convergent temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration (Re) within aquatic ecosystems and between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We do not know yet whether various terrestrial ecosystems have consistent or divergent temperature sensitivity. Here, we synthesized 163 eddy covariance flux sites across the world and examined the global variation of the apparent activation energy (Ea), which characterizes the apparent temperature sensitivity of and its interannual variability (IAV) as well as their controlling factors. Methods We used carbon fluxes and meteorological data across FLUXNET sites to calculate mean annual temperature, temperature range, precipitation, global radiation, potential radiation, gross primary productivity and Re by averaging the daily values over the years in each site. Furthermore, we analyzed the sites with >8 years data to examine the IAV of Ea and calculated the standard deviation of Ea across years at each site to characterize IAV. Important Findings The results showed a widely global variation of Ea, with significantly lower values in the tropical and subtropical areas than in temperate and boreal areas, and significantly higher values in grasslands and wetlands than that in deciduous broadleaf forests and evergreen forests. Globally, spatial variations of Ea were explained by changes in temperature and an index of water availability with differing contribution of each explaining variable among climate zones and biomes. IAV and the corresponding coefficient of variation of Ea decreased with increasing latitude, but increased with radiation and corresponding mean annual temperature. The revealed patterns in the spatial and temporal variations of Ea and its controlling factors indicate divergent temperature sensitivity of R-e, which could help to improve our predictive understanding of R-e in response to climate change.",Divergent apparent temperature sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystem respiration,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2310598,"Drought hotspot identification requires continuous drought monitoring and spatial risk assessment. The present study analysed drought events in the agriculture-dominated mid-Mahanadi River Basin in Odisha, India, using crop water stress as a drought indicator. This drought index incorporated different factors that affect crop water deficit such as the cropping pattern, soil characteristics, and surface soil moisture. The drought monitoring framework utilized a relevance vector machine model-based classification that provided the uncertainty associated with drought categorization. Using the proposed framework, drought hotspots are identified in the study region and compared with indices based on precipitation and soil moisture. Further, a bivariate copula is employed to model the agricultural drought characteristics and develop the drought severity-duration-frequency (S-D-F) relationships. The drought hotspot maps and S-D-F curves are developed for different locations in the region. These provided useful information on the site-specific drought patterns and the characteristics of the devastating droughts of 2002 and 2012, characterized by an average drought duration of 7 months at several locations. The site-specific risk of short- and long-term agricultural droughts are then investigated using the conditional copula. The results suggest that the conditional return periods and the S-D-F curves are valuable tools to assess the spatial variability of drought risk in the region.",Drought hotspot analysis and risk assessment using probabilistic drought monitoring and severity-duration-frequency analysis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2265172,"Climate change threatens many developing countries with more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Researchers, however, have not comprehensively examined how extreme weather influences urbanization and sustainable development. Based on the spatial estimates of precipitation, tropical cyclones, and temperature for the period of 2000 to 2010, we establish an eleven-year climatological record and calculate anomalies at the county and district level in the Greater Mekong Region (GMR). Combining this with urbanization data from the World Bank, we relate weather patterns to growth rates in urban population and urban land use and find that the above-average rainfall in the wet season along with more frequent cold waves and tropical cyclones tend to retard urban development. In contrast, crop failures caused by increasingly severe droughts during the dry season and heat waves accelerate rural-urban migration and the agglomeration of urban poverty. By identifying institutionally varying effects, we further find that nonsocialist countries have additional sensitivity to most weather extremes than more centralized socialist countries, which have stronger ability to mobilize resources for disaster management and relief. Our study contributes to the understanding of effects of weather shocks on socioeconomic outcomes in societies rapidly integrating with the global economy.","Institutions, Extreme Weather, and Urbanization in the Greater Mekong Region",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+181171,"An increasing trend in global streamflow has been variously attributed to global warming, land use, and a reduction in plant transpiration under higher CO2 levels. To separate these influences for the coterminous United States, we use a set of over 1000 United States Geological Survey stream gauges primarily from small, minimally disturbed watersheds to estimate annual streamflow per unit area since 1920 on a uniform grid. We find that changing precipitation, which is not clearly correlated with greenhouse gas concentrations or global warming, explains most of the interannual and longer term variability in streamflow. While streamflow has indeed increased since 1920, this increase has not been steady but rather concentrated in the late 1960s, when precipitation increased. Since the early 1990s, both precipitation and streamflow show nonsignificant declining trends. Multiple regression of streamflow against precipitation, temperature and CO2 suggests that higher CO2 levels may increase streamflow, presumably from lower transpiration due to the physiological plant response to CO2, but that this positive response is offset by concomitant increasing evaporation due to global warming. The net impact of the opposing climate and physiological effects of CO2 emissions for streamflow is close to zero for the coterminous United States taken as a whole, but shows regional variation. Streamflow at a given amount of annual precipitation has decreased in the Pacific west, where most precipitation occurs in winter. Suppression of plant transpiration through higher CO2 levels may be particularly important for sustaining high streamflow in recent decades in the Great Plains, where precipitation is concentrated during the growing season.",Mapping and attribution of change in streamflow in the coterminous United States,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2459803,"Muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) are an integral component of Arctic biodiversity. Given low genetic diversity, their ability to respond to future and rapid Arctic change is unknown, although paleontological history demonstrates adaptability within limits. We discuss status and limitations of current monitoring, and summarize circumpolar status and recent variations, delineating all 55 endemic or translocated populations. Acknowledging uncertainties, global abundance is ca 170 000 muskoxen. Not all populations are thriving. Six populations are in decline, and as recently as the turn of the century, one of these was the largest population in the world, equaling ca 41% of today’s total abundance. Climate, diseases, and anthropogenic changes are likely the principal drivers of muskox population change and result in multiple stressors that vary temporally and spatially. Impacts to muskoxen are precipitated by habitat loss/degradation, altered vegetation and species associations, pollution, and harvest. Which elements are relevant for a specific population will vary, as will their cumulative interactions. Our summaries highlight the importance of harmonizing existing data, intensifying long-term monitoring efforts including demographics and health assessments, standardizing and implementing monitoring protocols, and increasing stakeholder engagement/contributions. © 2019, The Author(s).","Muskox status, recent variation, and uncertain future",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1556816,"Investigators have examined how heat waves or incremental changes in temperature affect health outcomes, but few have examined both simultaneously. We utilized distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) to explore temperature associations and evaluate possible added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in 16 climate zones throughout California from May through October 1999-2009. We define heat waves as a period when daily mean temperatures were above the zone- and month-specific 95th percentile for at least two consecutive days. DLNMs were used to estimate climate zone-specific non-linear temperature and heat wave effects, which were then combined using random effects meta-analysis to produce an overall estimate for each. With higher temperatures, admissions for acute renal failure, appendicitis, dehydration, ischemic stroke, mental health, noninfectious enteritis, and primary diabetes were significantly increased, with added effects from heat waves observed for acute renal failure and dehydration. Higher temperatures also predicted statistically significant decreases in hypertension admissions, respiratory admissions, and respiratory diseases with secondary diagnoses of diabetes, though heat waves independently predicted an added increase in risk for both respiratory types. Our findings provide evidence that both heat wave and temperature exposures can exert effects independently.",Ambient temperature and added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in California from 1999 to 2009,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1664601,"In this modern world, human life is strictly adhered to comforts. Air conditioning plays a major part of it. Nowadays, we are exhausting our valuable conventional energies for our well being. Thermal loads in living buildings are rising due to living standards and hence comfort cooling in buildings is becoming increasingly important. The demand for comfort cooling is expanding very quickly around the world. Cold thermal storage systems have the potential to become the one of the best solutions to the electric power imbalance between production and demand. It also acts as an alternative and advantageous one over conventional cooling plants. Thermal energy storage is renewable source of energy to develop cooling system, which minimize environmental impact such as ozone depletion and global warming. Several methods of air cooling in room are in practice. Recent developments are in progress to make effective cooling by eliminating conventional energies. One such method is effective cooling of room using phase change materials by ceiling fan. Thermal energy storage systems using phase change materials have been recognized as one of the most advanced energy technologies in enhancing the energy efficiency. Thermal energy can be stored as latent heat which is of latter use, when substance changes from one phase into another by either melting or freezing. Mounting of PCM along with ceiling fan impart air conditioning effect. The PCM has done the trick of harnessing the room's hot air and let cool air to the room. Therefore, heat energy is absorbed and the effect of coolness increases. With prices of AC elevating, this method proves to be the cost effective and energy conserving. Unlike conventional air conditioners, the PCM in ceiling fan provides cool air free of cost and electricity. In the absence of electricity and also during power cut we have a cooling back up.",Cooling of Room with Ceiling Fan Using Phase Change Materials,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2310849,"Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007-2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 +/- 0.15 degrees C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 +/- 0.10 degrees C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 +/- 0.05 degrees C and in Antarctica by 0.37 +/- 0.10 degrees C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 +/- 0.12 degrees C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.",Permafrost is warming at a global scale,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+8012,"This paper summarizes a broad range of studies that have examined influences of recent climate change on plant phenology or distribution. Spring events such as leafing and flowering have typically advanced, some by several weeks, with median advances of 4-5 d per degree Celsius. Autumn events, such as leaf coloring or leaf fall, have usually become delayed, though with more variability than spring events. Changes in summer events have been mixed. Phenological changes have varied geographically, as have recent temperature changes. Most studies of at least several decades duration show the initiation of rapid changes in the 1970s or 1980s, paralleling patterns of temperature change. Plants and animals in a given area have often responded at different rates to temperature change, which is likely to change patterns of interaction between plants and their pollinators and herbivores. Altitudinal changes in plant distributions have been demonstrated in several areas, especially in Scandinavia and in Mediterranean Europe, though these changes lag the measured temperature changes. Latitudinal changes in plant distribution have been demonstrated in only a few instances and it has been suggested that precipitation changes may have limited range shifts in response to warming in some areas. The observed and predicted changes in plant distribution and phenology have major implications for various ecological and evolutionary phenomena, including ecosystem productivity, species interactions, community structure, and conservation of biodiversity.",Plant phenology and distribution in relation to recent climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+508308,"The characteristics of hydro-climatic changes in the Tarim River Basin were analysed based on data collected at 39 weather stations and 29hydrological stations for the period 1961-2008 and 1952-2008, respectively. A non-parametric trend test on basin scale for annual data shows an increasing trend of precipitation, relative humidity, vapour pressure, and the aridity index since 1986. Surface temperature started increasing in 1996. A decreasing trend of sunshine started in 1990. The potential evapotranspiration (ET) is calculated by the Penman-Monteith equation, and points out decreasing trend of potential evapotranspiration since 1985. This negative trend can also be detected for wind speed in both the same time scale and spatial extent. The stations with significant increasing trends in annual streamflow are mainly distributed at the southern slope of Tianshan Mountain, which can only be explained by climatic changes. The detected negative runoff trend of the main stream of the Tarim River can be explained by anthropogenic activities (such as irrigation and domestic water use) and climatic changes. A quantitative assessment reveals that local human activities since the 1970s led to a decrease of the water volume diverted into the main stream of the Tarim River Basin, which has been aggravated in the 2000s. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50 years: Human impact or climate change?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1369708,"We describe the molecular evolution of cytochrome b of blind subterranean mole rats. We examined 12 individuals for nucleotide differences in the region of 402 base pairs of mitochondrial cytochrome b. Each individual represents a different population from the entire ecological and speciational range of the four chromosomal species in Israel (2n = 52, 54, 58, and 60) belonging to the Spalax ehrenbergi superspecies. Our results indicate the following. (i) There are seven first-position transitional differences, compared to 34 variable third positions, with no observed second-position substitutions. (ii) A maximum of four amino acids differences occurs across the range. (iii) Within-species diversity increases southward. Only 1 autoapomorphic substitution characterizes either 2n = 52 or 2n = 54, but 6-11 substitutions characterize 2n = 58, and 9-13 substitutions characterize 2n = 60. (iv) Both parsimony and maximum-likelihood trees suggest two monophyletic groups: (a) 2n = 52 and 54, and (b) 2n = 58 and 60, as identified earlier by other protein and DNA markers. (v) Mitochondrial cytochrome b heterogeneity is significantly correlated with climatic factors (rainfall) and biotic factors (body size and allozymes). We hypothesize that two selective regimes direct cytochrome b evolution in the S. ehrenbergi superspecies: (i) purifying selection in the flooded, mesic, hypoxic northern range of 2n = 52 and 54 and (ii) diversifying selection in the climatically spatiotemporal, xeric, and variable southern range of 2n = 58 and 60. Thus, the molecular evolution of mitochondrial cytochrome b in S. ehrenbergi is explicable by opposite selective stresses across the range of S. ehrenbergi in Israel, associated with the ecological adaptive radiation of the complex.","Molecular evolution of cytochrome b of subterranean mole rats, Spalax ehrenbergi superspecies, in Israel",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+792240,"Climate warming is likely to interact with other stressors to challenge the physiological capacities and survival of phenotypes within populations. This may be especially true for the billions of fishes per year that undergo vigorous exercise prior to escaping or being intentionally released from fishing gear. Using adult coral grouper (Plectropomus leopardus), an important fisheries species throughout the Indo-Pacific, we show that population-level survival following vigorous exercise is increasingly compromised as temperatures increase from current-day levels (100-67% survival at 24-30 degrees C) to those projected for the end of the century (42% survival at 33 degrees C). Intriguingly, we demonstrate that high- performance individuals take longer to recover to a resting metabolic state and subsequently have lower survival in warm water compared with conspecifics that exercise less vigorously. Moreover, we show that postexercise mortality of high-performance phenotypes manifests after 3-13 d at the current summer maximum (30 degrees C), while mortality at 33 degrees C occurs within 1.8-14.9 h. We propose that wild populations in a warming climate may become skewed towards low-performance phenotypes with ramifications for predator-prey interactions and community dynamics. Our findings highlight the susceptibility of phenotypic diversity to fishing activities and demonstrate a mechanism that may contribute to fishing-induced evolution in the face of ongoing climate change.",Rising temperatures may drive fishing-induced selection of low-performance phenotypes,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+180532,"Reliably predicting how coral calcification may respond to ocean acidification and warming depends on our understanding of coral calcification mechanisms. However, the concentration and speciation of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) inside corals remain unclear, as only pH has been measured while a necessary second parameter to constrain carbonate chemistry has been missing. Here we report the first carbonate ion concentration ([CO32-]) measurements together with pH inside corals during the light period. We observe sharp increases in [CO32-] and pH from the gastric cavity to the calcifying fluid, confirming the existence of a proton (H+) pumping mechanism. We also show that corals can achieve a high aragonite saturation state (Omega(arag)) in the calcifying fluid by elevating pH while at the same time keeping [DIC] low. Such a mechanism may require less H+-pumping and energy for upregulating pH compared with the high [DIC] scenario and thus may allow corals to be more resistant to climate change related stressors.",Microelectrode characterization of coral daytime interior pH and carbonate chemistry,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3890459,"In this article, the effects of Ohmic heating process conditions on electrical conductivity and heat transfer were investigated. In order to study the Ohmic heating process, various hydrocolloid solutions containing starch in water with concentrations of 4-8% in the static cells were used. Temperature increments increased electrical conductivity of the solution, linearly. The concentration of dispersed solid particles in the solution caused a progressive trend in time-temperature curve for hydrocolloid solutions (with concentrations of 4, 5.5 and 8%) without electrolytes. The electrical conductivity was raised by increasing temperatures. In order to consider the salinity impact on electrical conductivity and the heating rate, sodium chloride (with concentrations of 1-0.25%) was added to the solution. It was observed that the salt addition to the system had a major effect on electrical conductivity and time-temperature curves. The pH level was modified with Citric acid addition, and the influence of pH level on the time-temperature curves and heating rates were investigated. The Citric acid addition had no on significant effect on the time-temperature curves. © 2011 Berkeley Electronic Press. All rights reserved.","Influence of hydrocolloid concentration, salinity and citric acid addition on heat transfer in the Ohmic heating process",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1554511,"In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by drought. In this paper, we analyze the hydrological footprint (dynamic development over space and time) of the drought of 2015 in terms of both severity (magnitude) and spatial extent and compare it to the extreme drought of 2003. Analyses are based on a range of low flow and hydrological drought indices derived for about 800 streamflow records across Europe, collected in a community effort based on a common protocol. We compare the hydrological footprints of both events with the meteorological footprints, in order to learn from similarities and differences of both perspectives and to draw conclusions for drought management. The region affected by hydrological drought in 2015 differed somewhat from the drought of 2003, with its center located more towards eastern Europe. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region surrounding the Czech Republic was the most affected, with summer low flows that exhibited return intervals of 100 years and more. In terms of deficit volumes, the geographical center of the event was in southern Germany, where the drought lasted a particularly long time. A detailed spatial and temporal assessment of the 2015 event showed that the particular behavior in these regions was partly a result of diverging wetness preconditions in the studied catchments. Extreme droughts emerged where preconditions were particularly dry. In regions with wet preconditions, low flow events developed later and tended to be less severe. For both the 2003 and 2015 events, the onset of the hydrological drought was well correlated with the lowest flow recorded during the event (low flow magnitude), pointing towards a potential for early warning of the severity of streamflow drought. Time series of monthly drought indices (both streamflow and climate-based indices) showed that meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time, both in terms of extent and severity (magnitude). These results emphasize that drought is a hazard which leaves different footprints on the various components of the water cycle at different spatial and temporal scales. The difference in the dynamic development of meteorological and hydrological drought also implies that impacts on various water-use sectors and river ecology cannot be informed by climate indices alone. Thus, an assessment of drought impacts on water resources requires hydrological data in addition to drought indices based solely on climate data. The transboundary scale of the event also suggests that additional efforts need to be undertaken to make timely pan-European hydrological assessments more operational in the future.",The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+202410,"Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 x 10(15) to 1.6 x 10(15) grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.",Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2346856,"Intra-species genetic variations of the sable Mantes zibellina (Carnivora, Mustelidae), originating from Russian Far East and Hokkadio, were assessed by using nucleotide sequences of the mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 gene (976 base pairs). Evaluation of the genetic diversity of the sables demonstrated that populations in the southern Primorsky territory in Russian Far East harbors high genetic diversity. We assumed that the high genetic variations might have been due to effects of refugia, secondary admixture of allopatrically differentiated lineages, or massive anthropogenic introductions. Molecular phylogenetic (maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference approaches) and network (median joining method) analyses clarified that sables in Hokkaido was monophyletic. Bayesian-relaxed molecular dating approach estimated the date for migration of sables into Hokkaido to lie between 0.10-0.27 Myr BP. Considering the geological evidence, the Late Pleistocene was presumed to be the plausible epoch for the establishment of the sables in Hokkaido. Lower genetic diversity of the sables in Hokkaido observed in this study was probably caused by the foundation effects or anthropogenic hunting pressures. Mammalian faunal construction in Hokkaido was also discussed.","Genetic diversity of the sable (Mantes zibellina, Mustelidae) in Russian Far East and Hokkaido inferred from mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 gene sequences",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1782418,"The fraction of land area over the Continental United States experiencing extreme hot and dry conditions has been increasing over the past several decades, consistent with expectation from anthropogenic climate change. A clear concurrent change in precipitation, however, has not been confirmed. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD), combining temperature and humidity, is utilized here as an indicator of the background atmospheric conditions associated with meteorological drought. Furthermore, atmospheric conditions associated with warm season drought events are assessed by partitioning associated VPD anomalies into the temperature and humidity components. This approach suggests that the concurrence of anomalously high temperature and low humidity was an important driver of the rapid development and evolution of the exceptionally severe 2011 Texas and the 2012 Great Plains droughts. By classification of a decade of extreme drought events and tracking them back in time, it was found that near surface atmospheric temperature and humidity add essential information to the commonly used precipitation-based drought indicators and can advance efforts to determine the timing of drought onset and its severity.",Utilizing Humidity and Temperature Data to Advance Monitoring and Prediction of Meteorological Drought,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1557254,"Background West Nile virus (WNV) is a highly pathogenic flavivirus transmitted by Culex spp. mosquitoes. In North America (NA), lineage 1 WNV caused the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease to date, while a novel pathogenic lineage 2 strain circulates in southern Europe. To estimate WNV lineage 2 epidemic potential it is paramount to know if mosquitoes from currently WNV-free areas can support further spread of this epidemic. Methodology/Principal Findings We assessed WNV vector competence of Culex pipiens mosquitoes originating from north-western Europe (NWE) in direct comparison with those from NA. We exposed mosquitoes to infectious blood meals of lineage 1 or 2 WNV and determined the infection and transmission rates. We explored reasons for vector competence differences by comparing intrathoracic injection versus blood meal infection, and we investigated the influence of temperature. We found that NWE mosquitoes are highly competent for both WNV lineages, with transmission rates up to 25%. Compared to NA mosquitoes, transmission rates for lineage 2 WNV were significantly elevated in NWE mosquitoes due to better virus dissemination from the midgut and a shorter extrinsic incubation time. WNV infection rates further increased with temperature increase. Conclusions/Significance Our study provides experimental evidence to indicate markedly different risk levels between both continents for lineage 2 WNV transmission and suggests a degree of genotype-genotype specificity in the interaction between virus and vector. Our experiments with varying temperatures explain the current localized WNV activity in southern Europe, yet imply further epidemic spread throughout NWE during periods with favourable climatic conditions. This emphasizes the need for intensified surveillance of virus activity in current WNV disease-free regions and warrants increased awareness in clinics throughout Europe.",West Nile Virus: High Transmission Rate in North-Western European Mosquitoes Indicates Its Epidemic Potential and Warrants Increased Surveillance,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+106060,"Rising temperatures caused by climatic warming may cause poleward range shifts and/or expansions in species distribution. Tropical reef corals (hereafter corals) are some of the world's most important species, being not only primary producers, but also habitat-forming species, and thus fundamental ecosystem modification is expected according to changes in their distribution. Although most studies of climate change effects on corals have focused on temperature-induced coral bleaching in tropical areas, poleward range shifts and/or expansions may also occur in temperate areas. We show the first large-scale evidence of the poleward range expansion of modern corals, based on 80 years of national records from the temperate areas of Japan, where century-long measurements of in situ sea-surface temperatures have shown statistically significant rises. Four major coral species categories, including two key species for reef formation in tropical areas, showed poleward range expansions since the 1930s, whereas no species demonstrated southward range shrinkage or local extinction. The speed of these expansions reached up to 14 km/year, which is far greater than that for other species. Our results, in combination with recent findings suggesting range expansions of tropical coral-reef associated organisms, strongly suggest that rapid, fundamental modifications of temperate coastal ecosystems could be in progress. Citation: Yamano, H., K. Sugihara, and K. Nomura (2011), Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04601, doi:10.1029/2010GL046474.",Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+629466,"AimPredicting the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems or how fish and other species are adapting to rising sea temperatures is still subject to much uncertainty, despite considerable progress in recent years. In this study we assess whether our understanding of the impact of sea warming on marine fish can be enhanced with an interdisciplinary approach that collates data from fisheries, fishermen and scientific research. By doing this, we aim to shed light on the major changes in the abundance and diversity of warm and cold water fish in recent decades in relation to sea warming. LocationThis study was conducted in the north-western Mediterranean, where the impacts of global warming are particularly critical because range shifts are physically constrained. MethodsWe collected and combined statistical data from fisheries, the traditional ecological knowledge of fishermen (TEK), reproductive data (histological gonad analyses and ichthyoplankton surveys) and extensive research into the relevant literature (including systematic catalogues and museum collections and their databases). ResultsWe have found that changes in the abundance of fish have followed a particular spatio-temporal sequence, with three different phases of colonization in the case of warm-water species (occasional occurrence, common presence and establishment), and three phases of regression (abundance reduction, range contraction and disappearance from the catch) in the case of cold-water species. Main conclusionsOverall, the results show that this multidisciplinary approach, combining qualitative and quantitative information from different sources, provides new insight into the observed changes in fish diversity and abundance in relation to climate change.","How a multidisciplinary approach involving ethnoecology, biology and fisheries can help explain the spatio-temporal changes in marine fish abundance resulting from climate change",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+71407,"Measurements of carbon fluxes in Arctic tundra landscapes are generally obtained through intensive field work and involve the use of chamber and/or micrometeorological tower techniques. However, findings in a variety of nonArctic ecosystems have demonstrated the potential of remote sensing-based techniques (particularly spectral vegetation indices) to provide estimates of CO2 exchange in a more timely and efficient manner. As the first step towards modelling Arctic regional and circumpolar fluxes of CO2 using remotely sensed data, we investigated the relationships between plot-level fluxes of CO2 and a vegetation spectral reflectance index derived from hand-held radiometric data at two sites. These relationships were evaluated for variations in vegetation cover type and environmental factors using data collected during the short Arctic growing season. Overall, this study demonstrated a relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and measurements of mean site gross photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration at two sites in Arctic tundra ecosystems on the North Slope of Alaska.",Estimating CO2 exchange at two sites in Arctic tundra ecosystems during the growing season using a spectral vegetation index,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1442392,"A comparison of species richness of leaf litter samples derived from a variety of modern forest types provides a means for estimating diversity of source forests in the fossil record. Single samples of temperate forest litter relatively consistently record about three-quarters of the source tree species larger than 10 cm diameter at breast height within the surrounding hectare. Tropical and subtropical samples, in contrast, contain a very small proportion of leaves of the tree species in the surrounding hectare of source forest, and demonstrate that the forest sampled by a single collection is about 0.1 to 0.125 hectare. Five combined samples from a tropical forest hectare with about 25-m intervals between adjacent samples can be used to extrapolate to hectare-based richness estimates, provided tha t sufficient specimens are recovered from each site. The major differences in methods needed for reconstruction of source forest richness from forests in different climatic zones indicates that a climatic filter should be applied to estimates of plant diversity in the past.",RECONSTRUCTING RICHNESS IN THE PLANT FOSSIL RECORD,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1382023,"In the present study, we use a coupled model to evaluate the effect of shallow salinity stratification on the sea surface temperature (SST) and on the monsoon onset in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS). A 100-year control experiment shows that the coupled model reproduces the main climatic features in this region in terms of SST, precipitation and barrier layer (BL). A 100-year sensitivity experiment (where BL effects have been suppressed in the SEAS) shows that BL enhances the spring SST warming by 0.5 degrees C, and leads to a statistically significant increase of precipitation in May (3 mm/day) linked to an early (10 to 15 days) monsoon onset. This suggests that the BL extent may be a useful predictor of the summer monsoon onset in the area with a two-month lead-time. However the effect above is mostly concentrated in the SEAS, and there is no significant impact over continental India.",Impact of barrier layer on winter-spring variability of the southeastern Arabian Sea,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+19223,"Very little is known about how environmental changes such as increasing temperature affect disease dynamics in the ocean, especially at large spatial scales. We asked whether the frequency of warm temperature anomalies is positively related to the frequency of coral disease across 1,500 km of Australia's Great Barrier Reef. We used a new high-resolution satellite dataset of ocean temperature and 6 y of coral disease and coral cover data from annual surveys of 48 reefs to answer this question. We found a highly significant relationship between the frequencies of warm temperature anomalies and of white syndrome, an emergent disease, or potentially, a group of diseases, of Pacific reef- building corals. The effect of temperature was highly dependent on coral cover because white syndrome outbreaks followed warm years, but only on high (> 50%) cover reefs, suggesting an important role of host density as a threshold for outbreaks. Our results indicate that the frequency of temperature anomalies, which is predicted to increase in most tropical oceans, can increase the susceptibility of corals to disease, leading to outbreaks where corals are abundant.",Thermal stress and coral cover as drivers of coral disease outbreaks,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1504131,"The Bombus lucorum complex represents a group of three distinct but cryptic bumblebee species in Europe. With the advent of DNA-based identification methods, their species status was confirmed and the use of COI barcoding proved to be an especially useful tool for species identification within the group. Meanwhile, the identification based on morphology remains difficult and recent studies challenged the general distinguishability by revealing an important character to be unreliable. This has consequences for our understanding of the distribution and ecology of the species in Europe and aggravates our patchy knowledge of the situation in Austria and the whole area of the European Alps. In this study, we investigate the exact species composition and distribution of the Bombus lucorum complex in Austria based on the reliable species identification with COI sequence data. The habitat usage is studied and the first extensive investigation of altitudinal and climatic differentiation is provided. The results support three distinct genotypic groups in the Bombus lucorum complex. B. lucorum and B. cryptarum co-occur in several areas across the country, with B. lucorum being the most common and most widespread species. The study provides no evidence for the presence of B. magnus in Austria. The less common species, B. cryptarum, mainly occurs in the high mountains and is the predominant species of the complex above altitudes of 2100 m a.s.l. Further, B. cryptarum is almost absent from woodlands and is relatively more abundant in habitats with colder climate than B. lucorum in Austria. Additionally, the results indicate a very low intraspecific genetic variation within B. lucorum and B. cryptarum. This study confirms previous findings of three distinct species within the species complex. Based on reliable COI identification, the first coherent overview of the species complex in Austria can be achieved. The climatic data allows us to explain the differences in the distribution patterns. Moreover, the low intraspecific variation may indicate past bottleneck conditions for B. lucorum and B. cryptarum.","The Cryptic Bombus lucorum Complex (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in Austria: Phylogeny, Distribution, Habitat Usage and a Climatic Characterization Based on COI Sequence Data",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+537565,"Plant growth and development are strongly affected by small differences in temperature(1). Current climate change has already altered global plant phenology and distribution(2,3), and projected increases in temperature pose a significant challenge to agriculture(4). Despite the important role of temperature on plant development, the underlying pathways are unknown. It has previously been shown that thermal acceleration of flowering is dependent on the florigen, FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT)(5,6). How this occurs is, however, not understood, because the major pathway known to upregulate FT, the photoperiod pathway, is not required for thermal acceleration of flowering(6). Here we demonstrate a direct mechanism by which increasing temperature causes the bHLH transcription factor PHYTOCHROME INTERACTING FACTOR4 (PIF4) to activate FT. Our findings provide a new understanding of how plants control their timing of reproduction in response to temperature. Flowering time is an important trait in crops as well as affecting the life cycles of pollinator species. A molecular understanding of how temperature affects flowering will be important for mitigating the effects of climate change.",Transcription factor PIF4 controls the thermosensory activation of flowering,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+481486,"… Life cycle energy conservation and emissions reduction benefits of rural household biogas project[J]. Transactions of the CSAE, 2010, 26(11): 245－250 … Assessment of environmental and economic costs of rural household energy consumption in Loess Hilly Region, Gansu …",Life cycle energy conservation and emissions reduction benefits of rural household biogas project,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+307849,"Peridinium umbonatum causes harmful algal blooms in freshwater ecosystems; however, environmental conditions that promote accelerated growth and blooming of this organism have not been resolved. Increasing global temperatures has been suggested as a possible factor for shifts in phytoplankton composition to more harmful species. Therefore, this study investigated the physiological responses of this freshwater dinoflagellate to different temperatures, a factor that will strongly be affected by future climate change scenarios. Specific growth rates of P. umbonatum were markedly lower at 10 degrees C and 14 degrees C than at 18 degrees C, 25 degrees C and 30 degrees C, with the highest growth rate measured at 18 degrees C. Cell mobility was significantly inhibited at 10 degrees C and 14 degrees C. The maximum photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm) of photosystem II and maximum relative electron transport rate decreased significantly at temperatures below 14 degrees C. However, nonphotochemical quenching significantly increased at 10 degrees C and 14 degrees C. Variable fluorescence at phase J increased in chlorophyll a fluorescence transients for P. umbonatum grown at 10 degrees C and 14 degrees C. The density of reaction centres and quantum energy flux ratios increased with increasing temperature, whereas the absorption and trapping energy flux, as well as the relative variable fluorescence intensity at the J-step, decreased with increasing temperature. These results suggest that low temperatures inhibit photosynthesis in P. umbonatum, resulting in low specific growth rates and increased cell immobility. This finding suggests that exposure to a temperature of 18 degrees C plays an important role in the growth and cyst germination of Peridinium, implying that increasing temperature might promote dinoflagellate Peridinium blooms.","Changes in growth, photosynthesis and chlorophyll fluorescence in the freshwater dinoflagellate Peridinium umbonatum (Peridiniales, Pyrrophyta) in response to different temperatures",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2365389,"The Pacific climate regime has anomalous warm and cool periods every decade associated with atmospheric circulation changes, which are known to have modulated the tropical and subtropical Pacific during the recent Pacific hiatus regime (1999-2013). However, the influence of the hiatus regime on the Kuroshio Extension (KE) remains unclear. Here, we show that the KE jet underwent enhanced warming (increased 1-1.5 degrees C), intensification (8-19%) and northward migration (0.5-1 degrees). The KE jet became more perturbed in the upstream region (increased by 70%, west of 146 degrees E) but became stable downstream (perturbation decreased 5-11%, east of 146 degrees E). A poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet stream and weakened Aleutian Low (AL) contributed to the northward migration and intensification of the KE jet, respectively. The weakened AL was associated with negative wind stress curl (WSC) in the eastern Pacific, and this WSC generated an underlying positive sea surface height anomaly that propagated westward, intensifying the KE jet when it reached the KE region. Since the recent Pacific hiatus regime ended after 2013, these changes of the KE jet may reverse during the ongoing warming regime.","Enhanced Warming and Intensification of the Kuroshio Extension, 1999-2013",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3921218,"For well over a decade it has been widely recognised that existing models and tools for subsea pipeline stability design fail to account for the fact that seabed soils tend to become mobile well before the onset of pipeline instability. Despite ample evidence obtained from both laboratory and field observations that sediment mobility has a key role to play in understanding pipeline/soil interaction, no models have been presented previously which account for the tripartite interaction between the fluid and the pipe, the fluid and the soil, and the pipe and the soil. There are numerous well developed and widely used theories available to model pipe-fluid and pipe-soil interactions. A challenge lies in the way to develop a satisfactory fluid-soil interaction algorithm that has the potential for broad implementation under both ambient and extreme sea conditions due to the complexity of flow in the vicinity of a seabed pipeline or cable. A widely used relationship by Shields [1] links the bedload and suspended sediment transport to the seabed shear stresses. This paper presents details of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) research which has been undertaken to investigate the variation of seabed shear stresses around subsea pipelines as a parametric function of pipeline spanning/embedment, trench configuration and wave/current properties using the commercial RANS-based software ANSYS Fluent. The modelling work has been undertaken for a wide range of seabed geometries, including cases in 3D to evaluate the effects of finite span length, span depth and flow attack angle on shear stresses. These seabed shear stresses have been analysed and used as the basis for predicting sediment transport within the Pipe-Soil- Fluid (PSF) Interaction Model [2] in determining the suspended sediment concentration and the advection velocity in the vicinity of pipelines. The model has significant potential to be of use to operators who struggle with conventional stabilisation techniques for the pipelines, such as those which cross Australia's North West Shelf, where shallow water depths, highly variable calcareous soils and extreme metocean conditions driven by frequent tropical cyclones result in the requirement for expensive and logistically challenging secondary stabilisation measures. Copyright © 2013 by ASME.",2D and 3D CFD investigations of seabed shear stresses around subsea pipelines,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+661675,[1] Air temperatures at high latitudes are expected to rise significantly as anthropogenic carbon builds up in the atmosphere. There is concern that warming of the ground in permafrost regions will result in additional release of carbon to the atmosphere. Recent emphasis has thus been on predicting the magnitude and spatial distribution of future warming at high latitudes. Modeling results show that changes in below ground temperatures can be influenced as much by temporal variations of snow cover as by changes in the near-surface air temperature. The recent (1983-1998) changes in permafrost temperatures on the North Slope of Alaska are consistent with decadal scale variability in snow cover. The implication of these results is that a better understanding of how winter precipitation patterns at high latitudes will change over the coming decades is needed to comprehend evolving permafrost temperatures.,The role of snow cover in the warming of arctic permafrost,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2364074,"The Arctic is undergoing dramatic environmental change with rapidly rising surface temperatures, accelerating sea ice decline and changing snow regimes, all of which influence tundra plant phenology. Despite these changes, no globally consistent direction of trends in spring phenology has been reported across the Arctic. While spring has advanced at some sites, spring has delayed or not changed at other sites, highlighting substantial unexplained variation. Here, we test the relative importance of local temperatures, local snow melt date and regional spring drop in sea ice extent as controls of variation in spring phenology across different sites and species. Trends in long-term time series of spring leaf-out and flowering (average span: 18 years) were highly variable for the 14 tundra species monitored at our four study sites on the Arctic coasts of Alaska, Canada and Greenland, ranging from advances of 10.06 days per decade to delays of 1.67 days per decade. Spring temperatures and the day of spring drop in sea ice extent advanced at all sites (average 1 degrees C per decade and 21 days per decade, respectively), but only those sites with advances in snow melt (average 5 days advance per decade) also had advancing phenology. Variation in spring plant phenology was best explained by snow melt date (mean effect: 0.45 days advance in phenology per day advance snow melt) and, to a lesser extent, by mean spring temperature (mean effect: 2.39 days advance in phenology per degrees C). In contrast to previous studies examining sea ice and phenology at different spatial scales, regional spring drop in sea ice extent did not predict spring phenology for any species or site in our analysis. Our findings highlight that tundra vegetation responses to global change are more complex than a direct response to warming and emphasize the importance of snow melt as a local driver of tundra spring phenology.",Local snow melt and temperature-but not regional sea ice-explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3882699,"Java is the economic and political center of Indonesia, a country with > 17,500 islands. Southeast Asia is a hotspot of marine biodiversity, and Java hosts coral reefs, seagrass beds, and mangrove forests, which have an unparalleled role in providing ecosystem services. The Indonesian seas play a decisive role for the coupled ocean and climate system. For the local population, coastal and marine resources are a crucial protein source and have a high economic importance. Java is one of the most densely populated regions in the world, so there is a very strong influence of human activities on the terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Overexploitation, pollution, and ecosystem conversion have already led to habitat degradation and shortage of many natural resources. Here we review the regional oceanic system of Java, its major coastal habitats, coastal and marine resource uses, and human impacts on its coastal and marine ecosystems. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Java Island, Indonesia",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3756299,"Stabilisation ponds are the most frequently used wastewater treatment technology in Argentina. This study focuses on the performance of two maturation ponds (MPs) that are part of the full-scale sewage treatment system of Puerto Madryn. Seventy-seven shots of surface water were analysed for organic matter, inorganic nitrogen, phytoplankton dynamics and bacterial removal. The system presented a clear evolution with respect to oxygenation and phytoplankton development. The treated wastewater reached values above 8 mg-O2/L, an important organic matter removal, and this was accompanied by a strong increase in pH. NH4+ removal and oxidation, was active even during winter in the MPs, with average concentrations below 10 mg - NH4+ /L. Bacteriological removal resulted in a liquid that approached the WHO recommendations for unrestricted irrigation. These results show that is possible to generate treated wastewater in stabilisation ponds working in a semiarid and temperate region, with bacterial content and conductivity suitable for irrigation. © 2016 CIWEM",Full-scale maturation ponds working below a latitude of 43°S in a semiarid area: seasonal performance and removal mechanisms,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+120288,"Different epidemiological studies have shown that high temperatures are directly related to mortality, furthermore many studies on the effects of climate change on future mortality are being conducted. The objective of this study is to estimate the effect of extreme hot temperatures on daily mortality in Zaragoza (Spain) from 2014 to 2021, utilising various climate-change scenarios. The relationship between temperature and mortality is defined by the concepts of heat wave, threshold temperature and the relative risk of daily deaths according to extreme temperatures in 1987-2006 period. The effect on future mortality is projected by estimating deaths attributable to extreme temperatures in 2014-2021. This estimation was calculated utilising exposure-response functions for three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) from the ECHAM5 general circulation model after applying a statistical downscaling technique. Because this study considers the effect of rising temperatures from a health perspective, minimising uncertainty was added to the numerical values obtained from the projected future relation between temperature and mortality. The results shows that expected mortality in Zaragoza will increase by 0.4 % for the period 2014-2021, an excess that can be directly attributed to extreme temperatures. This effect is expected to increase in the 2040s and 2050s until the end of the twenty first century because of a predicted increase in temperatures over this period, with special emphasis on the need to continue studying this line of inquiry and local studies as which arises. Finally, this study will luckily be used to create prevention plans for minimising the effect on health of the high temperatures.",The effect of climate-change-related heat waves on mortality in Spain: uncertainties in health on a local scale,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+443311,"Glaciers of the central Andes have recently been retreating response to global warming, with large consequences on the hydrological. regime. We assessed here potential climate change impacts until 2100 upon the hydrologic regime of the largely snow-ice melt driven Maipo River basin (closed at El Manzano, ca. 4800 km(2)), watering 7 M people in the metropolitan region of Santiago de Chile. First, a weather-driven hydrological model including simplified glaciers' cover dynamics was set up and validated, to depict the hydrological regime of this area. In situ data from recent glaciological expeditions, ice thickness estimates, historical weather and hydrological data, and remote sensing data including precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and snow cover and temperature from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used for model set up. We subsequently forced the model with projections of temperatures and precipitations (plus downscaling) until 2100 from the GCM model ECHAM6, according to 3 different radiative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) adopted by the IPCC in its AB5. We investigated yearly and seasonal trends of precipitation, temperature and hydrological fluxes until 2100 under the different scenarios, in projection period (PR, 2014-2100), and we compared them against historically observed trends in control period (CP, 1980-2013). The results show potential significant increasing trends in temperature until 2100, consistently with observed historical trends, unless for Spring (OND). Precipitation varies more uncertainly, with no historically significant changes, and only few scenarios projecting significant variations. In the PR period, yearly flow decreases, significantly under RCP8.5 (-0.31 m(3)s(-1)). Flow decrease is expected especially in Summer (JEM) under RCP8.5 (-0.55 m(3)s(-1)). Fall (AMJ) flows would decrease slightly, while winter (JAS) flows are projected to increase, and significantly under RCP4.5 (+0.22 m(3)s(-1)), as due to sustained melting therein. Spring (OND) flows also would decrease largely under RCP8.5, down to -0.67 m(3)s(-1), due to increased evapotranspiration for high temperatures.",HYDROLOGY AND POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE RIO MAIPO (CHILE),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1460614,0,CLIMATE SCIENCE Himalayan glaciers in the balance,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1297494,"Recent assessments have found that a warming climate, with associated increases in extreme heat events, could profoundly affect human health. This paper describes a new modeling and analysis framework, built around the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP), for estimating heat-related mortality as a function of changes in key factors that determine the health impacts of extreme heat. This new framework has the flexibility to integrate these factors within health risk assessments, and to sample across the uncertainties in them, to provide a more comprehensive picture of total health risk from climate-driven increases in extreme heat. We illustrate the framework's potential with an updated set of projected heat-related mortality estimates for the United States. These projections combine downscaled Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5, using the new Locating and Selecting Scenarios Online (LASSO) tool to select the most relevant downscaled climate realizations for the study, with new population projections from EPA's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. Results suggest that future changes in climate could cause approximately from 3000 to more than 16,000 heat-related deaths nationally on an annual basis. This work demonstrates that uncertainties associated with both future population and future climate strongly influence projected heat-related mortality. This framework can be used to systematically evaluate the sensitivity of projected future heat-related mortality to the key driving factors and major sources of methodological uncertainty inherent in such calculations, improving the scientific foundations of risk-based assessments of climate change and human health.",Heat-Related Health Impacts under Scenarios of Climate and Population Change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+802670,"To effectively address climate change, aggressive mitigation policies need to be implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Anthropogenic carbon emissions are mostly generated from urban - environments, where human activities are spatially concentrated. Improvements in uncertainty determinations and precision of measurement techniques are critical to permit accurate and precise tracking of emissions changes relative to the reduction targets. As part of the INFLUX project, we quantified carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4) emission rates for the city of Indianapolis by averaging results from nine aircraft-based mass balance experiments performed in November-December 2014. Our goal was to assess the achievable precision of the aircraft-based mass balance method through averaging, assuming constant CO2, CH4 and CO emissions during a three-week field campaign in late fall. The averaging method leads to an emission rate of 14,600 mol/s for CO2, assumed to be largely fossil-derived for this period of the year, and 108 mol/s for CO. The relative standard error of the mean is 17% and 16%, for CO2 and CO, respectively, at the 95% confidence level (CL), i.e. a more than 2-fold improvement from the previous estimate of similar to 40% for single-flight measurements for Indianapolis. For CH4, the -averaged emission rate is 67 mol/s, while the standard error of the mean at 95% CL is large, i.e. +/- 60%. Given the results for CO2 and CO for the same flight data, we conclude that this much larger scatter in the observed CH4 emission rate is most likely due to variability of CH4 emissions, suggesting that the assumption of constant daily emissions is not correct for CH4 sources. This work shows that repeated measurements using aircraft-based mass balance methods can yield sufficient precision of the mean to inform emissions reduction efforts by detecting changes over time in urban emissions.",Assessing the optimized precision of the aircraft mass balance method for measurement of urban greenhouse gas emission rates through averaging,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3297291,"Aim To test the previously published hypothesis that there was widespread reforestation following the depopulation of Indigenous Peoples in the 16th and 17th centuries. Location The central Appalachian Mountains of eastern North America. Taxon Quercus alba, Liriondendron tulipifera Methods To test for reforestation following depopulation, we used tree-ring evidence of tree recruitment, early radial growth and growth releases from 18 historic log buildings (n = 361 logs) and eight old-growth forest sites (n = 197 trees). We used inner-ring dates to determine if a synchronous recruitment event(s) was present at historic sites but absent from old-growth sites following depopulation. We used cluster analysis to determine if historic logs established in a clearing (fast early growth) or under a canopy (slow early growth). Similarly, we calculated disturbance rates (growth releases per 100 years) to determine if historic logs grew in a clearing (low disturbance) or under a canopy (high disturbance). Results Historic log and old-growth forest sites both document a period of elevated recruitment beginning in the 1670s. This event was observed in previous studies and across site types, suggesting that either climate variability or the absence of low-intensity land use (e.g. fire) may have also contributed to forest establishment. Most historic sites (61%-83%) had fast early growth, indicating growth of trees in high-light conditions. The rate of disturbance was lower at historic sites with fast early growth (5.3 events/century, 95% Cl [3.6, 7.0]) than at old-growth sites with slow early growth (23.5 events/century, 95% Cl [17.5, 29.5]), consistent with the idea that most historic logs were harvested from fast-growing, second-growth forests that established after depopulation. Main Conclusions Our results support the hypothesis of reforestation in upland forests of the central Appalachian Mountains following depopulation and suggest that upland forests, at the time of European immigration, were at least in part, a legacy of indigenous land use practices. However, the timing of a regional drought event, depopulation and subsequent recruitment of trees, all within the period of 1650-1690 CE, warrants further research into interactions between indigenous land use and climate during a pivotal period in North American history.",Do historic log buildings provide evidence of reforestation following depopulation of Indigenous Peoples?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1288520,"Much attention has focused on the effects of precipitation (P) and temperature (T) changes on runoff (R); however, the impacts of other climatic factors need to be studied further. Moreover, the monthly and seasonal scale also need to be investigated. In this paper, we investigated the characteristics of changes in annual, seasonal, and monthly hydroclimatic variables, including R, P, T, sunshine duration (SD), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS), between 1956 and 2015 in the Hutuo River basin (HTRB) using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, the cumulative anomaly test and the Precipitation-Runoff double cumulative curve method. Additionally, we assessed the contributions of climatic factors to changes in R in the HTRB between 1956 and 2015 using the climate elasticity method. The results indicated that significant downward trends were found for both annual and seasonal R, SD, RH, and WS. In contrast, there was a nonsignificant decrease in annual P; specifically, P significantly increased in spring and winter, but P insignificantly decreased in summer and autumn. Annual and seasonal T increased significantly. The annual R showed an abrupt change in 1979; thus, the entire study period from 1956 to 2015 was divided into two periods: the baseline period (i.e., 1956-1978) and the change period (i.e., 1979-2015). The elasticities in the climatic factors were calculated using the climate elasticity method, and the elasticity values of P, T, SD, RH, and WS were 1.84, -1.07, -2.79, 1.73, and -0.45, respectively. Increasing T was the main cause of the decline in R, and decreasing SD had a large negative contribution to the decline in R in the HTRB. This study will help researchers understand the interactions between climate change and hydrological processes at the basin scale and promote water resource management and watershed planning.","Changes in Annual, Seasonal and Monthly Climate and Its Impacts on Runoff in the Hutuo River Basin, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+24541,"Coupled climate models and recent observational evidence suggest that Arctic sea ice may undergo abrupt periods of loss during the next fifty years. Here, we evaluate how rapid sea ice loss affects terrestrial Arctic climate and ground thermal state in the Community Climate System Model. We find that simulated western Arctic land warming trends during rapid sea ice loss are 3.5 times greater than secular 21st century climate-change trends. The accelerated warming signal penetrates up to 1500 km inland and is apparent throughout most of the year, peaking in autumn. Idealized experiments using the Community Land Model, with improved permafrost dynamics, indicate that an accelerated warming period substantially increases ground heat accumulation. Enhanced heat accumulation leads to rapid degradation of warm permafrost and may increase the vulnerability of colder permafrost to degradation under continued warming. Taken together, these results imply a link between rapid sea ice loss and permafrost health.",Accelerated Arctic land warming and permafrost degradation during rapid sea ice loss,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+594863,"The Canadian Arctic is characterized by a high variation in landform types and there are complex interactions between land, water and the atmosphere which dramatically affect the distribution of biota. Biodiversity depends upon the intensity, predictability and scale of these interactions. Observations, as well as predictions of large-scale climate models which include ocean circulation, reveal an anomalous cooling of northeastern Canada in recent decades, in contrast to the overall significant increase in average annual temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. Predictions from models are necessary to forecast the change in the treeline in the 21st century which may lead to a major loss of tundra. The rate of change in vegetation in response to climate change is poorly understood. The treeline in central Canada, for example, is showing infilling with trees, and in some locations, northerly movement of the boundary. The presence of sea ice in Hudson Bay and other coastal areas is a major factor affecting interactions between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Loss of ice and therefore hunting of seals by polar bears will reduce bear and arctic fox populations within the region. in turn, this is likely to have significant effects on their herbivorous prey populations and forage plants, Further, the undersurface of sea ice is a major site for the growth of algae and marine invertebrates which in turn act as food for the marine food web. A rise in sea-level may flood coastal saltmarsh communities leading to changes in plant assemblages and a decline in foraging by geese and other consumers. The anomalous cooling in the eastern Arctic, primarily in late winter and early spring, has interrupted northern migration of breeding populations of geese and ducks and led to increased damage to vegetation in southern arctic saltmarshes as a result of foraging. It is likely that there has been a significant loss of invertebrates in those areas where the vegetation has been destroyed, Warming will have major effects on permafrost distribution and on ground-ice resulting in a major destabilization of slopes and slumping of soil, and disruption of tundra plant communities. Disruption of peat and moss surfaces lead to loss of insulation, an increase in active-layer depth and changes in drainage and plant assemblages. Increases of UV-B radiation will strongly affect vulnerable populations of both plants and animals, The indigenous peoples will face major changes in life style, edibility of food and health standards, if there is a significant warming trend. The great need is for information which is sensitive to the changes and will assist in developing an understanding of the complex interactions of the arctic biota, human populations and the physical environment.",Atmospheric change and biodiversity in the Arctic,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+25905,"An attempt is made in the article to examine the dynamics of cultural development dated to the beginning of the Copper and Early Bronze Age in the Northern Caucasus (second half of 5th - first half of 4th millennia BC). This period in the Near East archaeological literature is designated as the ""Post-Ubeid period"" and the beginning of the Uruk period. In the first part of the article the cultural-chronological situation is analyzed which is related to the radiocarbon dating of main archaeological sites in the Near East and their relation to those of the North Caucasus. Further, the author examines some questions are examined connected to the dynamics of cultural evolution in the Ciscaucasia just before the Maykop period and characterizes peculiarities of spatial and chronological localization of typological variants within the Maykop- Novosvobodnaya cultural community. He also discusses general characteristics of the metal production, military affairs, cults and beliefs, as well as emergence of barrow funerary rite in the North Caucasus region.","Challenging situations of the ""post-ubeid period"" in the ciscaucasia (4500-3500 BC)",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2419339,"Migration is one response to climatic stress and shocks. In this article we review the recent literature across various disciplines on the effects of climate change on migration. We explore key features of the relationship between climate change and migration, distinguishing between fast-onset and slow-onset climatic events and examining the causes of heterogeneity in migratory responses to climate events. We also seek to shed light on the interactions between different types of adaptations to climate events as well as the mechanisms underlying the relationship between climate change and migration. Based on our review of the existing literature, we identify gaps in the literature and present some general policy recommendations and priorities for research on climate-induced migration.",Human Migration in the Era of Climate Change,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+377647,"Information on breeding biology of birds is fundamental for the understanding of life history evolution and conservation. This information is only beginning to accumulate for Neotropical birds but the southern subtropics are still overlooked. Here we describe the breeding biology of passerines in subtropical Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We monitored 265 nests of 38 species during the 2012-2013 breeding season. Breeding began in September, but some species started as late as December. Average breeding season length was 64 days, but varied broadly across species. Average clutch sizes ranged from two to five eggs. The breeding season phenology, clutch sizes, and nesting periods were similar to other two communities at the same latitude in Argentina. Our data contribute to the debate that the combination of small clutch sizes and short breeding seasons seen in subtropical South America challenges the tropical-temperate paradigm of life-history theory.",BREEDING BIOLOGY OF PASSERINES IN THE SUBTROPICAL BRAZILIAN ATLANTIC FOREST,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1277171,"Here, we present an overview of the current knowledge of Cuban seagrasses, including distribution, status, threats, and efforts for their conservation. It has been estimated that seagrasses cover about 50% of the Cuban shelf, with six species reported and Thalassia testudinum K.D. Koenig being the most dominant. Seagrasses have been studied primarily in three areas in Cuba (northwest, north-central, and southwest). Thalassia testudinum and other seagrasses exhibit spatial and temporal variations in abundance, and updating of their status and distribution is needed. The main threat to Cuban seagrass ecosystems is low seawater transparency due to causes such as eutrophication and erosion. High salinities limit their distribution in the Sabana-Camaguey Archipelago, partly the result of freshwater dams and roads. Seagrass meadows play important ecological roles and provide many ecosystem services in Cuba, with efforts underway to preserve this ecosystem. Research and management projects are directed toward integrated coastal zone management, including a ban on trawl fisheries and the extension of marine protected areas to contain more seagrass meadows. In addition to updating species distributions, it is urgent that managers and researchers in Cuba examine the resilience of this ecosystem in the face of climate change.",An overview of Cuban seagrasses,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+772497,"Temperature variability is a major driver of ecological pattern, with recent changes in average and extreme temperatures having significant impacts on populations, communities and ecosystems. In themarine realm, very few-experiments have manipulated temperature in situ, and current understanding of temperature effects on community dynamics is limited. We developed new technology for precise seawater temperature control to examine warming effects on communities of bacteria, microbial eukaryotes (protists) and metazoans. Despite highly contrasting phylogenies, size spectra and diversity levels, the three community types responded similarly to seawater warming treatments of +3 degrees C and +5 degrees C, highlighting the critical and overarching importance of temperature in structuring communities. Temperature effects were detectable at coarse taxonomic resolutions and many taxa responded positively to warming, leading to increased abundances at the community-level. Novel field-based experimental approaches are essential to improve mechanistic understanding of how ocean warming will alter the structure and functioning of diverse marine communities.",Community responses to seawater warming are conserved across diverse biological groupings and taxonomic resolutions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+344107,"In this study we analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of streamflow droughts in the Iberian Peninsula from 1945 to 2005. Streamflow series belonging to 187 homogeneously distributed gauging stations across the study area were used to develop a standardized streamflow index (SSI), which facilitated comparison among regimes and basins, regardless of streamflow magnitudes. A principal component analysis was performed to identify homogeneous hydrological regions having common features based on the temporal evolution of streamflows. Identification of drought events was carried out using a threshold level approach. We assessed the duration and magnitude of drought episodes and the changes that occurred between two contrasting periods for each hydrological region. The results showed a trend toward increased drought severity in the majority of regions. Drought duration, magnitude and spatial coverage were found to depend mainly on climatic conditions and the water storage strategies in each basin. In some basins these strategies have altered river regimes, and in others created a high level of dependence on storage and water transfer rates.",Streamflow droughts in the Iberian Peninsula between 1945 and 2005: spatial and temporal patterns,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+776388,"Aim: Anthropogenic additions of nitrogen (N) are expected to drive terrestrial ecosystems toward greater phosphorus (P) limitation. However, a comprehensive understanding of how an ecosystem's P cycle responds to external N inputs remains elusive, making model predictions of the anthropogenic P limitation and its impacts largely uncertain. Location: Global. Time period: 1986-2015. Major taxa studied: Terrestrial ecosystems. Methods: We conducted a meta-analysis including 288 independent study sites from 192 articles to evaluate global patterns and controls of 10 variables associated with ecosystem P cycling under N addition. Results: Overall, N addition increased biomass in plants (134%) and litter (115%) as well as plant P content (117%), while decreasing P concentrations in plants and litter (28% and 211%, respectively). N addition did not change soil labile P or microbial P, but enhanced phosphatase activity (124%). The effects of N addition on the litter P pool and soil total P remained unclear due to significant publication biases. The response of P cycling to N addition in tropical forests was different from that in other ecosystem types. N addition did not change plant biomass or phosphatase activity in tropical forests but significantly reduced plant P and soil labile P concentrations. The shift in plant P concentration under N addition was negatively correlated with the N application rate or total N load. N-induced change in soil labile P was strongly regulated by soil pH value at the control sites, with a significant decrease of 14% only in acidic soils (pH < 5.5). Main conclusions: Our results suggest that as anthropogenic N enhancement continues in the future it could induce P limitation in terrestrial ecosystems while accelerating P cycling, particularly in tropical forests. A quantitative framework generated on the basis of this meta-analysis is useful for our understanding of ecosystem P cycling with N addition, and for incorporating the anthropogenic P limitation into ecosystem models used to analyse effects of future climate change.",Responses of terrestrial ecosystem phosphorus cycling to nitrogen addition: A meta-analysis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1755768,"Physical habitat degradation has been implicated as a major contributor to the historic decline of salmonids in Pacific Northwest streams. Native aquatic vertebrate assemblages in the Oregon and Washington Coast Range consist primarily of coldwater salmonids, cottids, and amphibians. This region has a dynamic natural disturbance regime, in which mass failures, debris torrents, fire, and tree-fall are driven by weather but are subject to human alteration. The major land uses in the region are logging, dairy farming, and roads, but there is disagreement concerning the effects of those activities on habitat and fish assemblages. To evaluate those effects, we examined associations among physical and chemical habitat, land use, geomorphology, and aquatic vertebrate assemblage data from a regional survey. In general, those data showed that most variation in aquatic vertebrate assemblage composition and habitat characteristics is predetermined by drainage area, channel slope, and basin lithology, To reveal anthropogenic influences, we first modeled the dominant geomorphic influences on aquatic biotic assemblages and physical habitat in the region. Once those geomorphic controls were factored out, associations with human activities were clarified. Streambed instability and excess fines were associated with riparian disturbance and road density, as was a vertebrate assemblage index of biotic integrity (IBI). Low stream IBI values, reflecting lower abundances of salmonids and other sediment-intolerant and coldwater fish and amphibian taxa, were associated with excess streambed fines, bed instability, higher water temperature, higher dissolved nutrient concentrations, and lack of deep pools and cover complexity. Anthropogenic effects were more pronounced in streams draining erodible sedimentary bedrock than in those draining more resistant volcanic terrain. Our findings suggest that the condition of fish and amphibian assemblages in Coast Range streams would be improved by reducing watershed activities that exacerbate erosion and mass-wasting of sediment; protecting and restoring multilayered structure and large, old trees in riparian zones; and managing landscapes so that large wood is delivered along with sediment in both natural and anthropogenic mass-wasting events. These three measures are likely to increase relative bed stability and decrease excess fines by decreasing sediment inputs and increasing energy-dissipating roughness from in-channel large wood and deep residual pools. Reducing sediment supply and transport to sustainable rates should also ensure adequate future supplies of sediment. In addition, these measures would provide more shade, bankside cover, pool volume, colder water, and more complex habitat structure.",Geomorphic and anthropogenic influences on fish and amphibians in Pacific Northwest coastal streams,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+718151,"Some 11% of Iceland is covered by glaciers. They contain 3,600 km(3) of water, equivalent to a 35-m-thick ice layer spread evenly over the whole country; if melted, it would raise global sea level by 1 cm. This is Iceland's greatest water storage, corresponding to the precipitation of 20 years. Dynamic in nature, these glaciers are responsive to climate fluctuations and effect their environment profoundly. Also, they, lie over active volcanoes; these induce jokulhlaups that can threaten areas of habitation. The country's glaciers feed its largest rivers and currently provide at least one-third of its total runoff. Since a general glacier recession set in at the end of the 19th century, the largest icecap, Vatnajokull, has decreased by about 10% in volume (300 km(3)), contributing 1 mm to the concurrent rise in sea level. During the last ten years, ice losses have accelerated, thereby detracting 2.7% (84 km(3)) from the total icecap volume. Typically, radiation provides two-thirds of the melt energy, turbulent fluxes one-third. However; transitory volcanic eruptions and continuous geothermal activity at the bed of Vatnajokull. added some 5.5 km(3) to surface melting during the 1990s, with one particular volcanic eruption melting 4.0 km(3). In all of Iceland's major icecaps, surges account for a significant portion of total mass transport through the principal outlet glaciers, playing an important role in outlet dynamics and hydrology. Taking the 20th century as a whole, surges contributed at least 10% to the total ice transport to ablation, areas of Vatnajokull. Plausible future climate scenarios, coupled with models of mass balance and ice dynamics, suggest that the main icecaps will lose 25% to 35% of their present volume within half a century, leaving only small glaciers on the highest peaks after 150-200 years. Glacier meltwater runoff will peak after 50 years, then decline to present-day values by 100 years from now. When the glaciers have disappeared, the entire river discharge will come directly from precipitation.",Icelandic glaciers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+142657,"In this study, potential climate change impacts on runoff and sediment load in Apalachicola River basin in Florida are assessed using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed hydrologic model. The observed streamflow and sediment load from 1984 to 1994 are used for the model calibration and validation. The streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficients (NSEs) for the simulation and validation periods (1984-1989 and 1990-1994 years) are 0.92 and 0.88, respectively. The sediment NSEs for the simulation and validation periods are calculated to be 0.46 and 0.36, respectively, with excellent description of trend variability. Rainfall data under climate change effects is applied as the calibrated SWAT model input to estimate the streamflow and sediment load change. The rainfall and temperature data is prepared using two regional climate models (RCM); HRM3-HADCM3, and RCM3-GFDL. Results show that the average daily level of streamflow and sediment load will not vary significantly, but the peak flow and peak sediment load will increase dramatically due to the more intense and less frequent rainfall events. The impact of climate change during an extreme rainfall event is also investigated. A storm event with 25-year return period and 24-hour duration in 1991 is taken as the baseline event. Based on the projection using RCM3-GFDL scenario, the streamflow and sediment load may increase by 50% and 89%, respectively.",Climate Change Impact on Runoff and Sediment Loads to the Apalachicola River at Seasonal and Event Scales,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2377057,"The impacts of and responses to the health impacts of climate change will affect individuals, communities, and societies. Adaptation and mitigation are the primary policy approaches to address the projected risks. Adaptation programs and activities support individuals, communities, and nations as they prepare for and respond to current and projected climate change. The goal of mitigation is to reduce the extent of climate change through reducing greenhouse gas emissions, land use change, and other actions. Effective policy action requires ongoing assessment, intervention, monitoring, and adjustment, not a one-time assessment of risks and likely effective responses. Promoting resilience requires both top-down and bottom-up approaches, with public health organizations and agencies implementing interventions at national and regional levels, and communities developing and deploying local programs and activities. Current public health interventions need to be augmented or deployed in new regions to prevent additional climate change-related morbidity and mortality. Monitoring and surveillance systems need to be modified to ensure programs remain effective under changing environmental conditions. Moreover, public health strategies must extend beyond conventional or proximal health determinants, including policies from the fields of energy, transportation, agriculture, and others, on which public health depends. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Policy responses to climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1289108,"Few studies have analyzed the health effects of temperature variability (TV) accounting for both interday and intraday variations in ambient temperature. In this study, TV was defined as the standard deviations of the daily minimum and maximum temperature during different exposure days. Distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression model was used to examine the city-specific effect of TV on mortality in 31 Chinese municipalities and provincial capital cities. The national estimate was pooled through a meta analysis based on the restricted maximum likelihood estimation. To assess effect modification on TV mortality association by individual characteristics, stratified analyses were further fitted. Potential effect modification by city characteristics was performed through a meta-regression analysis. In total, 259 million permanent residents and 4,481,090 non-accidental deaths were covered in this study. The effect estimates of TV on mortality were generally increased by longer exposure days. A 1 degrees C increase in TV at 0 - 7 days' exposure was associated with a 0.60% (95% CI: 0.25-0.94%), 0.65% (0.24-1.05%), 0.82% (0.29 - 1.36%), 0.86% (0.42-1.31%), 0.98% (0.57-1.39%) and 0.54% (-0.11-1.20%) increase in non-accidental, cardiovascular, IHD, stroke, respiratory and COPD mortalities, respectively. Those with lower levels of educational attainment were significantly susceptible to TV. Cities with dense population, higher mean temperatures, and relative humidity and lower diurnal temperature ranges also had higher mortality risks caused by TV. This study demonstrated that TV had considerable health effects. An early warning system to alert residents about large temperature variations is recommended, which may have a significant impact on the community awareness and public health. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Vulnerability to the impact of temperature variability on mortality in 31 major Chinese cities,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+147291,"The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important agricultural production area in China. Crop production in the NCP is sensitive to changes in both climate and management practices. While previous studies showed a negative impact of climatic change on crop yield since 1980s, the confounding effects of climatic and agronomic factors have not been separately investigated. This paper used 25 years of crop data from three locations (Nanyang, Zhengzhou and Luancheng) across the NCP, together with daily weather data and crop modeling, to analyse the contribution of changes in climatic and agronomic factors to changes in grain yields of wheat and maize. The results showed that the changes in climate were not uniform across the NCP and during different crop growth stages. Warming mainly occurred during the vegetative (preflowering) growth stage of wheat and maize, while there was a cooling trend or no significant change in temperatures during the postflowering stage of wheat (spring) or maize (autumn). If varietal effects were excluded, warming during vegetative stages would lead to a reduction in the length of the growing period for both crops, generally leading to a negative impact on crop production. However, autonomous adoption of new crop varieties in the NCP was able to compensate the negative impact of climatic change. For both wheat and maize, the varietal changes helped stabilize the length of preflowering period against the shortening effect of warming and, together with the slightly reduced temperature in the postflowering period, extend the length of the grain-filling period. The combined effect led to increased wheat yield at Zhengzhou and Luancheng; increased maize yield at Nanyang and Luancheng; stabilized wheat yield at Nanyang, and a slight reduction in maize yield at Zhengzhou, compared with the yield change caused entirely by climatic change.","Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain, since 1980s",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2308687,"Many carnivore species, particularly felids, are sensitive to land use changes and may disappear from landscapes with reduced natural habitat and increased fragmentation. The jaguar (Panthera onca) is highly affected by these factors and is particularly endangered in the Atlantic Forest (AF) of South America, one of the most threatened biomes in the world. We used noninvasive fecal sampling and microsatellite markers to investigate the genetic diversity of jaguars in one of the last remnant populations of this species in the entire coastal AF. This section of the biome is highly fragmented. We observed low levels of genetic diversity (H-O = 0.621, H-E = 0.532, AR = 3.195), and estimated a small effective size for the population (N-e = 7.9 individuals). We performed comparative analyses incorporating data from previously surveyed populations located farther inland (interior AF), revealing that the coastal population studied shows significant genetic differentiation. Our results support a scenario of anthropogenic, drift-induced differentiation among jaguar populations in small AF fragments, affecting both the interior and coastal components of this biome. Despite its low diversity, we detected putatively unique alleles present in the coastal population, supporting its importance in the context of maintaining the remaining genetic variability of jaguars in the AF. Our results highlight the urgent need to implement coordinated conservation actions for jaguars in this highly impacted biome, including management interventions that foster the restoration of genetic connectivity among isolated remnant populations.",Worrisome isolation: noninvasive genetic analyses shed light on the critical status of a remnant jaguar population,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+649676,"Data on grain yield from field trials on winter wheat under conventional farming, harvested between 1992 and 2008, were combined with daily weather data available for 44 grids covering Denmark. Nine agroclimatic indices were calculated and used for describing the relation between weather data and grain yield. These indices were calculated as average temperature, radiation and precipitation during winter (1 October-31 March), spring (1 April-15 June) and summer (16 June-31 July), and they were included as linear and quadratic covariates in a mixed regression model. The model also included an effect of year to describe the change in yield caused by unrecorded variables such as management changes. The final model included all effects that were significant for at least one of the two soil types (sandy and loamy soils). Seven of the nine agroclimatic indices were included in the final model that was used to predict the wheat grain yield under five climate scenarios (a baseline for 1985 and two climate change projections for 2020 and 2040) for two soil types and two locations in Denmark. The agroclimatic index for summer temperature showed the strongest effect causing lower yields with increasing temperature, whereas yield increased with increasing radiation during summer and spring. Winter precipitation and spring temperature did not affect grain yield significantly. Grain yield responded non-linearly to mean winter temperature with the highest yield at 4.4 degrees C and lower yields both below and above this inflection point. The application of the model predicted that the average yield would decrease under projected climate change. The average decrease varied between 0.1 and 0.8 t/ha (comparable to a relative reduction of 1.6-12.3%) depending on the climate projection, location and soil type. On average, the grain yield decreased by about 0.25 t/ha (c. 3.6%) from 1985 to 2020 and by about 0.55 t/ha (c. 8.0%) from 1985 to 2040. The predicted yield decrease depended on climate projection and was larger for wheat grown in West Zealand than in Central Jutland and in most cases also larger for loamy soils than for sandy soils. The inter-annual variation in grain yield varied greatly between climate projections. The coefficient of variation (CV) varied between 0.16 and 0.46 and was smallest for wheat grown on loamy soils in Central Jutland in the baseline climate and largest for winter wheat grown under one of the 2040 climate projections. The increase in CV is not so much an effect of increased climatic variability under the climate change projections, but more an effect of increased winter temperature, where more extreme winter temperatures (lower or higher than the inflection point at 4.4 degrees C) increased the effect of winter temperatures.",Winter wheat yield response to climate variability in Denmark,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+345533,"We carried out time-series analysis in 12 U.S. cities to estimate both the acute effects and the lagged influence of weather on total daily deaths. We fit generalized additive Poisson regressions for each city using nonparametric smooth functions to control for long time trend and barometric pressure. We also controlled for day of the week. We estimated the effect and the lag structure of both temperature and humidity on the basis of a distributed lag model. In cold cities, both high and low temperatures were associated with increased deaths. In general, the effect of cold temperatures persisted for days, whereas the effect of high temperatures was restricted to the day of the death or the immediately preceding day and was twice as large as the cold effect. The hot temperature effect appears to be primarily harvesting. In hot cities, neither hot nor cold temperatures had much effect on deaths. The magnitude of the effect of hot temperature varied with central air conditioning use and the variance of summertime temperatures. We saw no clear pattern for humidity effect. These dissimilarities indicate that analysis of the impact of any climatic change should take into account regional weather differences and harvesting.",The time course of weather-related deaths,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+527543,"Energy consumption induces climate change but at the same time modifications in climate impact the energy sector both in terms of supply capacity and shift in energy demand. Different regions will be affected in different ways and this paper aims at analysing the issue at the European level. Usually rising sea levels, extremes of weather and an increase in the frequency of droughts and floods are indicated to play havoc with the world's energy systems but they can be hardly estimated and this study will be limited to the effects of the increase in average temperature. Tipping points are also taken out of any quantitative assessment. Structure of the EU energy budget is presented, shifts in energy demand, vulnerabilities of supply and risks for energy infrastructure are discussed in order to eventually provide figures of possible further threats to the continental energy security. © 2015, International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems SDEWES. All rights reserved.",Climate change and vulnerabilities of the European energy balance,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+669185,"Australia's aquatic ecosystems are unique, supporting a high diversity of species and high levels of endemism; however, they are also extremely vulnerable to climate change. The present review assesses climate-induced changes to structural habitats that have occurred in different aquatic ecosystems. Climatic impacts are often difficult to discern against the background of habitat degradation caused by more direct anthropogenic impacts. However, climate impacts will become more pronounced with ongoing changes in temperature, water chemistry, sea level, rainfall patterns and ocean currents. Each of these factors is likely to have specific effects on ecosystems, communities or species, and their relative importance varies across different marine and freshwater habitats. In the Murray-Darling Basin, the greatest concern relates to declines in surface water availability and riverine flow, owing to declining rainfall and increased evaporative loss. On the Great Barrier Reef, increasing temperatures and ocean acidification contribute to sustained and ongoing loss of habitat-forming corals. Despite the marked differences in major drivers and consequences of climate change, the solution is always the same. Greenhouse-gas emissions need to be reduced as a matter of urgency, while also minimising non-climatic disturbances. Together, these actions will maximise opportunities for adaptation by species and increase ecosystem resilience.",Contribution of climate change to degradation and loss of critical fish habitats in Australian marine and freshwater environments,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+97931,"Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970-2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito-human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.",Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+562577,"AimTowards the cold margins of the Northern Hemisphere boreal zone, continuing warming should theoretically provide a longer vegetative season, favouring growth and a northward shift in tree species distribution. The northern distribution of Thuja occidentalis L. (eastern white cedar) is marked by the presence of isolated marginal populations distant from the continuous distribution. If those populations proved to be well adapted to their future local climatic conditions, their expansion could accelerate cedar poleward migration. We tested the hypotheses that (1) there will be a growth increase in cedar northern marginal populations as a result of global warming, and (2) the edaphic conditions and regional precipitation regimes will modulate their response to warming. LocationCanadian boreal forest, western Quebec (47-50 degrees N, 74-80 degrees W). MethodsWe investigated radial growth using tree-ring measurements from dominant and co-dominant eastern white cedar trees (n=723) distributed along a latitudinal gradient from the species' northern margin to the centre of its natural range. First, low-frequency growth variations were analysed on whole chronologies (ad1720-2010). Second, inter-annual growth variations were tested against ad1953-2010 monthly temperature and precipitation time series with a bootstrapped correlation function. Finally, the impact of environmental variables on the growth-climate relationships was assessed. ResultsUnexpectedly, a growth decline was observed starting in 1980 in marginal sites. Dendroclimatic analyses revealed that radial growth was not only limited by short growing seasons but also by summer droughts in the marginal zone. This response was exacerbated in sites that received less summer precipitation. Counterintuitively, autumn and spring precipitation negatively impacted on growth, especially in wet soil stands. Main conclusionsNorthern marginal populations of cedar may have already reached their optimum temperature threshold for radial growth. Our results suggest that they will probably be facing increasing hydric stress selection pressure under the assumptions of climate change. Their responses to future warming will be highly dependent on the seasonality and magnitude of variation in precipitation regimes.",Unexpected warming-induced growth decline in Thuja occidentalis at its northern limits in North America,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+308234,"In Malawi, production from subsistence rain fed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. In response to the adverse effects of climate change and variability, a National Adaptation Programme of Action is used as framework for implementing adaptation programmes. However, this framework puts limited significance on indigenous knowledge systems (IKS). In many parts of the world, IKS have shown potential in the development of locally relevant and therefore sustainable adaptation strategies. This study was aimed at assessing the role of IKS in adaptation to climate change and variability in the agricultural sector in a rural district of Chikhwawa, southern Malawi. The study used both qualitative data from focus group and key informant interviews and quantitative data from household interviews and secondary data to address the research objectives. The study established that the local communities are able to recognise the changes in their climate and local environment. Commonly mentioned indicators of changing climatic patterns included delayed and unpredictable onset of rainfall, declining rainfall trends, warming temperatures and increased frequency of prolonged dry spells. An analysis of empirical data corroborates the people's perception. In addition, the community is able to use their IKS to adapt their agricultural systems to partially offset the effects of climate change. Like vulnerability to climate change, IKS varies over a short spatial scale, providing locally relevant adaptation to impacts of climate change. This paper therefore advocates for the integration of IKS in programmes addressing adaptation to climate change and vulnerability. This will serve to ensure sustainable and relevant adaptation strategies. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Assessing indigenous knowledge systems and climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture: A case study of Chagaka Village, Chikhwawa, Southern Malawi",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1477081,"Background: Strong heat load has negative impacts on the human health and results in higher mortality during heat waves. In Europe, the summer 2003 was responsible for a high number of heat-related deaths, especially in Western Europe. Vienna was only partially affected. The aim of this study is to compare the heat-related mortality of 2003 with other years and to analyze whether 2003 was exceptional in Vienna. Methods: The analysis is based on both meteorological and mortality data for the federal state of Vienna (Austria) for 1970-2007. We used the human-biometeorological index Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) in order to assess the heat load affecting the human body, and considered short-term adaptation by the HeRATE approach. Each day between April and October was classified according to its thermal stress level and the mean mortality for each class was analyzed. Two approaches, with and without long-term sensitivity trends were considered. Results: Mortality increases significantly with thermal stress, but this increase attenuated in the last decades. Based on the sensitivity for the period of investigation, 2003 was the year with the highest heat-related mortality. Including the long-term sensitivity trend, other years (1992, 1994 and 2000) were characterised by higher values. Discussion: In the last decades the number of days with heat stress increased, but the sensitivity to heat stress decreased. This could indicate long-term adaptation processes. Hence, heat-related mortality in 2003 was high, but not exceptionally high.",Summer climate and mortality in Vienna - a human-biometeorological approach of heat-related mortality during the heat waves in 2003,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1377263,"The prevailing metaphor for understanding the persistence of gender inequalities in universities is the ""chilly climate."" Women faculty sometimes resist descriptions of their workplaces as ""chilly"" and deny that gender matters even in the face of considerable evidence to the contrary. I draw on interviews with women academics (N=102) to explore this apparent paradox, and I offer a theoretical synthesis that may help explain it. I build on insights from Ridgeway and Acker to demonstrate that women do experience gender at work, but the contexts in which they experience it have implications for how they understand gender's importance and whether to respond. Specifically, I find that women are likely to minimize or deny gender's importance in interactions. When it becomes salient in structures and cultures, women understand it differently. Placing gender in organizational contexts can better inform our understanding of gender inequality at work and can help in crafting more effective efforts to foster gender equity.",BEYOND THE CHILLY CLIMATE: The Salience of Gender in Women's Academic Careers,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+513063,"Recent analyses of Amazon runoff and gridded precipitation data suggest an intensification of the hydrological cycle over the past few decades in the following sense: wet season precipitation and peak river runoff (since approximate to 1980) as well as annual mean precipitation (since approximate to 1990) have increased, while dry season precipitation and minimum runoff have slightly decreased. There has also been an increase in the frequency of anomalously severe floods and droughts. To provide context for the special issue on Amazonia and its forests in a warming climate we expand here on these analyses. The contrasting recent changes in wet and dry season precipitation have continued and are generally consistent with changes in catchment-level peak and minimum river runoff as well as a positive trend of water vapor inflow into the basin. Consistent with the river records, the increased vapor inflow is concentrated to the wet season. Temperature has been rising by 0.7 degrees C since 1980 with more pronounced warming during dry months. Suggestions for the cause of the observed changes of the hydrological cycle come from patterns in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Tropical and North Atlantic SSTs have increased rapidly and steadily since 1990, while Pacific SSTs have shifted during the 1990s from a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase with warm eastern Pacific temperatures to a negative phase with cold eastern Pacific temperatures. These SST conditions have been shown to be associated with an increase in precipitation over most of the Amazon except the south and southwest. If ongoing changes continue, we expect forests to continue to thrive in those regions where there is an increase in precipitation with the exception of floodplain forests. An increase in flood pulse height and duration could lead to increased mortality at higher levels of the floodplain and, over the long term, to a lateral shift of the zonally stratified floodplain forest communities. Negative effects on forests are mainly expected in the southwest and south, which have become slightly drier and hotter, consistent with tree mortality trends observed at the RAINFOR Amazon forest plot network established in the early 1980s consisting of approximately 150 regularly censused 1ha plots in intact forests located across the whole basin.",Recent Amazon climate as background for possible ongoing and future changes of Amazon humid forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+2089976,"Small pelagic fish have exhibited cyclic population dynamics in complex marine ecosystems worldwide. These fish regime shifts have been associated with ocean regime shifts; however, the biological mechanisms have remained unresolved and have been considered to depend mainly on multi-step processes through food webs. In the present study, we focus on species-specific temperature optima and show that similarities and differences in spawning temperature optima reflect those in the long-term population dynamics among multi-species pelagic fish in the western North Pacific. Spawning temperature optima were examined for anchovy, sardine, mackerel and jack mackerel, based on the occurrence of eggs and larvae, using a long-term (1978 to 2004) data set of egg and larval surveys off the Pacific coast of Japan. Anchovy exhibited a plateau-like spawning temperature pattern with a peak at ca. 22 degrees C. In contrast, sardine and mackerel exhibited steeply peaked patterns with marked peaks at ca. 16 and 18 degrees C, respectively. On the contrary, jack mackerel showed a very similar spawning temperature pattern to anchovy. These relationships were consistent with their flourish and collapse in long-term population dynamics. Furthermore, sardine and mackerel with stenothermal spawning patterns showed dramatic fluctuations relative to anchovy and jack mackerel with more eurythermal features. The multi-species comparisons extracted a simple and direct pathway: if viewed at large scales, direct temperature impacts on vital parameters provide a plausible explanation of multi-species regime shifts of small pelagic fish in the western North Pacific.",Multi-species regime shifts reflected in spawning temperature optima of small pelagic fish in the western North Pacific,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+167722,"The middle reaches of the Yellow River basin (MRYRB) contribute significantly to the total streamflow and sediment discharge of the Yellow River. Significant changes in streamflow have been detected; these changes result in part from large number of soil and water conservation measures implemented over the past six decades in this area. This study investigates streamflow variations and evaluates the impacts of climate variability and human activity on the mean annual flow in the MRYRB. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt's test are applied to characterize the trends and abrupt changes of hydro-climatic variables in the MRYRB. The analysis was performed on streamflow data taken over the period from the 1950s to 2010 at 18 hydrological stations and on precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 43 climate stations. We find that 16 of these stations recorded significant decreases in annual streamflow, with reduction rates ranging from 0.10 mm/yr to 1.61 mm/yr over the study period. Precipitation at all of the stations also had negative trends, with changes ranging from -4.7 mm/yr to -0.19 mm/yr. Temperature increased significantly at most stations, while PET showed a mixed of upward and downward trend. Abrupt changes in streamflow at mainstream stations occurred when large reservoirs were built, while breakpoints of streamflow at tributary stations were mainly driven by the implementation of soil and water conservation measures. We used both Budyko's curve (a simple water balance model) and linear regression to evaluate the potential impacts of climate variability and human activities on mean annual streamflow. Climate variability has a greater effect on the streamflow reduction in the Beiluo River and Yan River, while human activities accounted for more of the streamflow changes in other tributaries, especially in the northern catchments. In general, human activities, including soil and water conservation projects, the operation of dams and reservoirs, and water consumption, are found to be the dominant factors responsible for the significant decline in the annual streamflow in the MRYRB over the last six decades. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Quantifying the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+758091,"Water shortage and climate change are the most important issues of sustainable agricultural and water resources development. Given the importance of water availability in crop production, the present study focused on risk assessment of climate change impact on agricultural water requirement in southwest of Iran, under two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) for the future period (2025-2054). A multi-model ensemble framework based on mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) method and a combined probabilistic approach Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and change factor (CF) have been used for downscaling to manage the uncertainty of outputs of 14 general circulation models (GCMs). The results showed an increasing temperature in all months and irregular changes of precipitation (either increasing or decreasing) in the future period. In addition, the results of the calculated annual net water requirement for all crops affected by climate change indicated an increase between 4 and 10 %. Furthermore, an increasing process is also expected regarding to the required water demand volume. The most and the least expected increase in the water demand volume is about 13 and 5 % for A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Considering the results and the limited water resources in the study area, it is crucial to provide water resources planning in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change. Therefore, the adaptation scenarios with the climate change related to crop pattern and water consumption should be taken into account.","Risk assessment of agricultural water requirement based on a multi-model ensemble framework, southwest of Iran",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+734801,"A high-resolution climate model (4-km horizontal grid spacing) is used to examine the following question: How will long-term changes in climate impact the partitioning of annual precipitation between evapotranspiration and runoff in the Colorado Headwaters? This question is examined using a climate sensitivity approach in which eight years of current climate is compared to a future climate created by modifying the current climate signal with perturbation from the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), model forced by the A1B scenario for greenhouse gases out to 2050. The current climate period is shown to agree well with Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) surface observations of precipitation (P) and snowpack, as well as streamflow and AmeriFlux evapotranspiration (ET) observations. The results show that the annual evaporative fraction (ET/P) for the Colorado Headwaters is 0.81 for the current climate and 0.83 for the future climate, indicating increasing aridity in the future despite a positive increase of precipitation. Runoff decreased by an average of 6%, reflecting the increased aridity. Precipitation increased in the future winter by 12%, but decreased in the summer as a result of increased low-level inhibition to convection. The fraction of precipitation that fell as snow decreased from 0.83 in the current climate to 0.74 in the future. Future snowpack did not change significantly until January. From January to March the snowpack increased above similar to 3000 m MSL and decreased below that level. Snowpack decreased at all elevations in the future from April to July. The peak snowpack and runoff over the headwaters occurred 2-3 weeks earlier in the future simulation, in agreement with previous studies.",Climate Change Impacts on the Water Balance of the Colorado Headwaters: High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+776993,"Background: Extreme ambient temperatures are linked to cardiac events in the general population, but this relationship is unclear among pregnant women. We estimated the associations and attributable risk between ambient temperature and the risk of cardiovascular event at labor/delivery, and investigated whether these associations vary by maternal race/ethnicity. Methods: We identified 680 women with singleton deliveries affected by cardiovascular events across 12 US sites (2002-2008). Average daily temperature during the week before, delivery day, and each of the seven days before delivery was estimated for each woman. In a case-crossover analysis, exposures during these hazard periods were compared to two control periods before and after delivery using conditional logistic regression adjusted for other environmental factors. Results: During the cold season (October-April), 1 degrees C lower during the week prior to delivery was associated with a 4% (95% CI: 1-7%) increased risk of having a labor/delivery affected by cardiovascular events including cardiac arrest and stroke. During the warm season (May-September), 1 degrees C higher during the week prior was associated with a 7% (95% CI: 3-12%) increased risk. These risks translated to 13.4 and 23.9 excess events per 100,000 singleton deliveries during the cold and warm season, respectively. During the warm season, the risks were more pronounced on days closer to delivery and Black women appeared to be more susceptible to the same temperature increase. Conclusion: Small changes in temperature appear to affect the risk of having cardiovascular events at labor/delivery. Black women had a differentially higher warm season risk. These findings merit further investigation.",Ambient temperature and risk of cardiovascular events at labor and delivery: A case-crossover study,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2350822,"A new morphometric approach was developed to study morphological variation within P-1 elements commonly referred to as Idiognathodus simulator, which was selected to be the biostratigraphic marker for the base of the global Gzhelian Stage (Carboniferous). This new approach combines landmark-based geometric morphometrics with eigen analyses to analyze shape variation within P-1 elements of the I. simulator group, and could be used to analyze shape variation in other morphologically similar conodont groups. Specimens analyzed were obtained from three sections of the early Gzhelian Heebner Shale of the Oread cyclothem in the North American Midcontinent region, the cyclothem from which I. simulator was originally named. This analysis shows that the I. simulator group comprises a set of at least five species with asymmetrical P-1 element pairs, relatively short adcarinal ridges, and a variably developed eccentric groove. Species discrimination is based on the presence of caudal and rostral lobes, character of the adcarinal ridges, and platform shape. The species I. simulator is restricted to P-1 elements with a caudal adcarinal ridge that is isolated from the caudal platform margin. Idiognathodus lateralis sp. nov. is erected to include P-1 elements with a caudal adcarinal ridge that is not isolated from the caudal platform margin.",Geometric morphometric analysis and taxonomic revision of the Gzhelian (Late Pennsylvanian) conodont Idiognathodus simulator from North America,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+698612,"The annual cycle of vegetation growth may be altered in response to climate changes affecting ecosystem dynamics. However, our understanding of vegetation seasonality is mostly limited to the mechanisms and attributes of phenological events, such as spring emergence and fall senescence. Here we have investigated the seasonal evolution of vegetation growth from winter dormancy to summer maturity of four forest types in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperate and boreal forests for 1982-2011. The present study assesses large-scale variations in the vegetation green-up rate (VG(rate)) and its connection to temperature variability using remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and surface air temperature. The average of the VG(ate) of the analysis period increases with latitude, which indicates that the canopy develops more rapidly from dormancy to maturity for vegetation in higher-latitude or colder climate zones. VG(rate) and precedent temperature also show a positive correlation (r) over temperate and boreal forests (67% of the forest area in the NH), indicating that increased temperatures lead to faster canopy development within the same climate zone or latitude band. Responsiveness of VG(rate) to temperature variability shows that despite the same magnitude of local temperature variability during extremely cold and warm years, the magnitude of VG(rate) acceleration in warm years (0.07 (15-day)(-1)) is larger than the VG(rate) deceleration in cold years (-0.03 (15-day)(-1)), suggesting that the response of VG(rate) to temperature variability is nonlinear. Among the four forest types examined in this study, the nonlinear responses are most clearly observed in deciduous broadleaf forests indicating that forest composition may regulate the large-scale response of canopy development to temperature variability. Overall, our results suggest that anomalous seasonal warming will significantly affect canopy developments over wide deciduous forest areas. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.",Nonlinear response of vegetation green-up to local temperature variations in temperate and boreal forests in the Northern Hemisphere,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+647062,"This study examines the vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience of urban poor households living in the riverine communities of the three flood prone areas in Metro Manila, namely, (1) Pasig-Marikina River basin, (2) West Mangahan, and (3) the KAMANAVA area (Kalookan, Malabon, Navotas, Valenzuela). Based on a survey of 300 urban poor households in 14 communities located in these flood basins, the study found that the environmental-ecological vulnerability of the low-lying flood prone areas interacts strongly with the social vulnerability of urban poor households, highlighting the effects of climate related changes (sea level rise, increased typhoons, intensity of monsoon rains, floods and tidal/storm surges) on this vulnerable population. Most of the households have low-incomes, live in slum/squatter settlements and do not have adequate access to potable water, electricity, health, sewage and sanitation facilities. About two-thirds of them suffered losses (e. g., income, work, health/sickness, household appliances/things, housing damage) from typhoons, floods, and tidal/storm surges but only a small portion of them obtained help from formal institutions (e. g., local government units or LGUs, charitable agencies) and informal support networks (relatives/neighbors/friends). Of these, a third of these households appeared more vulnerable and consistently incurred higher losses (e. g., income and workdays) and intense inconveniences (e. g., water source buried by floods, toilets blocked and overflowed with wastes/large worms to their floors) compared to their neighbors. Both urban poor households and their local governments have formulated adaptation strategies in response to the increasing effects of climate change. Few of the local governments built river barriers, improved their drainage systems, installed water diversion techniques (e. g., ""bombastic"") and disaster warning systems and increased the capacity of their officials to assist during evacuations. Meanwhile, some urban poor households have adapted to a ""water-based lifestyle"" (e. g., raising the floors/increasing the number of floors of their homes, building makeshift bridges among households in swampy areas, building Styrofoam boats for transport, etc.). But on the whole, both the urban poor residents and the formal institutions (LGUs, national agencies) need resources and capability building to increase their capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change.","Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Resilience to Floods and Climate Change-Related Risks among Marginal, Riverine Communities in Metro Manila",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+746763,"This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under different levels of global warming in Central Asia. Projections show mean temperatures increasing by up to 6.5 A degrees C compared to pre-industrial by the end of this century across the region. Associated physical impacts include altered precipitation regimes, more frequent heat extremes and increasing aridity. Increasing rates of glacial and snow melt could lead to greater river runoff, but also to greater seasonality of runoff in the short term and to decreasing water availability in the medium term to long term. These changes have negative implications for the water availability in the region and for conflicting water demands between agriculture and hydropower. Climate change could mostly decrease crop yields, challenging food security, but in more northern regions there could also be positive effects. Studies on climate change impacts on energy systems are scarce and yield conflicting results, but the more regional study shows decreasing prospects for hydropower. The health of the population is already sensitive to heat extremes and is projected to be exposed to more frequent and prolonged heat waves in the future, among other potential health impacts. While the evidence for a link between climate and migration is weak, the rural-to-urban migration can be especially expected to intensify. The paper concludes that Central Asia will be severely affected by climate change even if the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2 A degrees C above pre-industrial levels, due to the potential for impacts to occur simultaneously and compound one another as well as interactions with wider development challenges, while risks will be strongly amplified if this threshold is crossed.",Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+115394,"This review assesses the degree of resilience of mangrove forests to large, infrequent disturbance (tsunamis) and their role in coastal protection, and to chronic disturbance events (climate change) and the future of mangroves in the face of global change. From a geological perspective, mangroves come and go at considerable speed with the current distribution of forests a legacy of the Holocene, having undergone almost chronic disturbance as it result of fluctuations in sea-level. Mangroves have demonstrated considerable resilience over timescales commensurate with shoreline evolution. This notion is supported by evidence that soil accretion rates in mangrove forests are currently keeping pace with mean sea-level rise. Further support for their resilience comes from patterns of recovery from natural disturbances (storms, hurricanes) which coupled with key life history traits, suggest pioneer-phase characteristics. Stand composition and forest structure are the result of a complex interplay of physiological tolerances and competitive interactions leading to a mosaic of interrupted or arrested succession sequences, in response to physical/chemical gradients and landform changes. The extent to which some or all of these factors come into play depends on the frequency, intensity, size, and duration of the disturbance. Mangroves may in certain circumstances offer limited protection from tsunamis; some models using realistic forest variables suggest significant reduction in tsunami wave flow pressure for forests at least 100 m in width. The magnitude of energy absorption strongly depends on tree density, stem and root diameter, shore slope, bathymetry, spectral characteristics of incident waves, and tidal stage upon entering the forest. The ultimate disturbance, climate change, may lead to a maximum global loss of 10-15% of mangrove forest, but must be considered of secondary importance compared with current average annual rates of 1-2% deforestation. A large reservoir of below-ground nutrients, rapid rates of nutrient flux and microbial decomposition, complex and highly efficient biotic controls, self-design and redundancy of keystone species, and numerous feedbacks, all contribute to mangrove resilience to various types of disturbance. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Mangrove forests: Resilience, protection from tsunamis, and responses to global climate change",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2326013,"Climate variation and land use changes have been widely recognized as two major factors that impact hydrological processes. However, it is difficult to distinguish their contributions to changes in streamflow. Quantifying their contributions to alteration of streamflow is especially important for the sustainable management of water resources. In this study, the changes in streamflow for the period of 1960-2008 at two stations (Dongwan and Luhun) were analyzed in the Yihe watershed in China based on hydrological data series and climate parameters. Using a non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Pettitt's test, as well as Budyko analysis, we first examined the trends of hydroclimatic variables and the breakpoint of annual streamflow over the past 50 years. Subsequently, we evaluated the contributions of annual precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and land use condition (represented by w), respectively, to streamflow variation. We observed a decreasing trend for P, as well as increasing trends for PET and w. Annual streamflow showed a significant downward trend with an abrupt change occurring in 1985 during the period of 1960-2008. Accordingly, we divided the studied period into two sub-periods: period I (1960-1985) and period II (1986-2008). The sensitivity of the streamflow to the different environmental factors concerned in this study differed. Streamflow was more sensitive to P than to PET and w. The decrease in P was the greatest contributor to the decline in streamflow, which accounted for 50.01% for Dongwan and 55.36% for Luhun, followed by PET, which accounted for 24.25% for Dongwan and 24.45% for Luhun, and land use change was responsible for 25.25% for Dongwan and 20.19% for Luhun. Although land use change plays a smaller role in streamflow reduction, land use optimization and adjustment still have great significance for future water resource management, since climate variation is difficult to control; however, the pattern optimization of land use can be achieved subjectively.","The Impacts of Climate Variation and Land Use Changes on Streamflow in the Yihe River, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+773429,"In the water-limited Loess Plateau, reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important hydrological factor affecting the implementation of ecological projects, agricultural production, and water resource management, and its long-term variation is of great interest in climate change studies. Based on daily data from 57 meteorological stations, temporal and spatial patterns in ETo and related driving factors were evaluated for the period 1958-2011. In addition, the influences of agricultural cultivation and urbanization on ETo trends were also analyzed. The results indicated both decreasing and increasing trends in annual and seasonal ETo series in this area. The area-average ETo series experienced a weak decreasing annual trend. However, more ETo series were found with increasing trends. More decreasing trends were found in summer, winter, and the growing season, but more increasing trends were seen in spring and autumn. Analysis of the contributions of meteorological variables on trends in ETo showed that wind speed was the most dominant factor affecting ETo variation at most stations. In addition, cultivation and urbanization also affected ETo trends. The impact on ETo trend was more obvious for the urbanization than cultivation. A warmer and drier trend would affect the implementation of ecological projects, the occurrence of dried soil layers, desertification, and agricultural production of the area.","Trends in reference evapotranspiration and its attribution over the past 50 years in the Loess Plateau, China: implications for ecological projects and agricultural production",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+437542,"[1] High-resolution (50 km) climate change simulations for an area covering the entire Arctic have been conducted with the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM. The experiments were forced at the lateral boundary by large-scale atmospheric conditions from transient climate change scenario simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) ECHAM4/OPYC3 with a resolution of similar to 300 km. The emission scenarios used were the IPCC SRES [Nakicenovic, 2000] marker scenarios A2 and B2. Three 30-year time slice experiments were conducted with HIRHAM for periods representing present-day ( 1961 - 1990) and the future ( 2071 - 2100) in the two scenarios. We find that due to a much better representation of the surface topography in the RCM, the geographical distribution of present-day accumulation rates simulated by the RCM represents a substantial improvement compared to the driving OAGCM. Estimates of the regional net balance are also better represented by the RCM. In the future climate the net balance for the Greenland Ice Sheet is reduced in all the simulation, but discrepancies between the amounts when based on ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HIRHAM are found. In both scenarios, the estimated melt rates are larger in HIRHAM than in the driving model.",Net accumulation of the Greenland ice sheet: High resolution modeling of climate changes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+208639,"The potential impact of climate change on the existing drainage infrastructure has been an essential aspect of many hydrological studies. Climate change that will increase the intensity of precipitation will also increase the magnitude of the design discharge and thus would probably result in adverse effects on the existing drainage facilities. This paper aims to evaluate the potential impact of rainfall intensity variation due to climate change on the existing drainage infrastructure by investigating whether (1) the stormwater drainage infrastructure designed for preclimate conditions is able to sustain future higher discharges, and (2) new design guidelines are necessary to be established to include the potential rainfall intensity variation due to climate change. A case study was conducted using 34 years of rainfall data (1980-2013) obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). These data and the weather scenario data projected by the four run global circulation model (GCMs) under the three emissions scenarios coupled with stochastic weather generator model which generates daily weather time series statistically were used to update the current intensity-duration-frequency curve to reflect the rainfall intensity variation due to climate change. Furthermore, runoff simulation using a storm and sanitary software program was performed to analyze whether the increase in the intensity of rainfall due to climate change would have an adverse impact on the current drainage system to convey excess runoff. The results showed that most elements of the current drainage infrastructure in the boundary of the study area were inadequate to convey excess runoff. However, climate change magnifies the problems that already exist in an aging drainage infrastructure. Furthermore, considering the rehabilitation or replacement rates of these aging infrastructures are relatively slow, emphasis must not lie only on the future climate change, but also on identifying the weak spots in the system coupled with, the economic and environmental factors before any changes in design criteria can be recommended due to climate change. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.",Evaluation of the Potential Impact of Rainfall Intensity Variation due to Climate Change on Existing Drainage Infrastructure,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1856741,"Aphids are the insect group most sensitive to climate change because of their very short generation times and rapid potential growth rates. A network of suction traps, 12.2 metres tall, has been established in 19 countries to monitor these insects. The combined system will provide the most comprehensive database for any terrestrial invertebrate group anywhere in the world and will be a unique resource for studies on the impacts of global change. An SQL SERVER database is being developed which will comprise daily or weekly records of aphids at all sites throughout Europe for all years of trap operation. Over 1000 site-years of data are available. The database will be interfaced to an US (Internet Information Server) via ASP (Active Server Pages). Participants will be able to access the database via the World Wide Web and be able to export data, plot graphs, maps etc. and enter new data. Data on climate, pollutant concentrations and land use will be incorporated into the database and general linear models will be used to examine relationships between these and the aphid data. Where significant relationships are found, these will be extrapolated to show the likely impact on the aphid variables of environmental conditions expected up to fifty years hence. The project will produce a lasting infrastructure for validating predictions of the impacts of global change on European agroecosystems and will facilitate a wide range of basic and applied studies on aphid dynamics. The project participants will welcome approaches from other aphidologists who wish to contribute to or use the database for scientific study.",EXAMINE (EXploitation of Aphid Monitoring In Europe): an European thematic network for the study of global change impacts on aphids,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+103416,"The aim of the present study was to analyse the influence of warming on flatfish populations in the Bay of Biscay. 17 autumn cruises conducted from 1987 to 2006 over the whole shelf of the Bay of Biscay provided data for the abundance and occurrence of adults for twenty flatfish species. Trends in flatfish abundance were analysed with regard to geographic range of populations and interannual fluctuations in abundance were related to seawater temperature. Results showed significant trends in abundance and occurrence for 55% of the flatfish species in the Bay of Biscay. The response to warming of seawater was correlated to geographic ranges of species. While the abundance of the northern temperate species decreased, that of southern ones increased. Moreover, for 40% of the species which densities have significantly changed, abundances were correlated to temperatures in their year of birth, positively for southern species and negatively for northern ones. List, the abundance of flatfish adults over the Bay of Biscay was compared to previous data on juveniles in the Bay of Vilaine, one of the estuarine nursery ground in this area. For the northern species which have disappeared, the decline in juvenile abundances preceded that of adults by several years, indicating that the recruitment is the process affected. We concluded on a major impact of warming to explain changes in flatfish species abundances. Nevertheless, the impact of fishing interacts with that of climate change because the exploited species appeared to be the most negatively affected. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Impact of warming on abundance and occurrence of flatfish populations in the Bay of Biscay (France),1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2355095,"Three peat cores were extracted from the Kovarska Bog in the central Ore Mountains to study anthropogenic pollution generated by mining and metallurgy. The core profiles were C-14 dated, and concentrations of selected elements were determined by ICP MS and HG-AAS. Principal component analysis indicated that Pb, Cu, As and Ag may be useful elements for the reconstruction of historical atmospheric pollution. Total and anthropogenic accumulation rates (ARs) of Pb, Cu and As estimated for the last ca. 3500 years showed similar chronologies, and revealed twelve periods of elevated ARs of Pb, As and Cu related to possible mining and metallurgic activities. In total, four periods of elevated ARs of Pb, Cu and As were detected during the Middle and Late Bronze Ages, including a distinct Late Bronze Age pollution event between 1030 BCE and 910 BCE. The Iron Age included three episodes of increased ARs of Pb and As; the first and the most distinctive episode, recorded between 730 and 440 BCE, was simultaneous with the Bylany culture during the Hallstatt Period. The Roman Age was characterized by one pollution event, two events were detected in the Middle Ages, and the last two during the modern period. Enhanced element ARs in the late 12th and 15th centuries clearly documented the onset of two periods of intense mining in the Ore Mountains. Metal ARs culminated in ca. 1600 CE, and subsequently decreased after the beginning of the Thirty Years'War. The last boom of mining between 1700 CE and 1830 CE represented the last period of important metallurgical operations. Late Medieval and modern period metal ARs are in good agreement with written documents. Earlier pollution peaks suggest that local metal production could have a much longer tradition than commonly believed; however, archaeological or written evidence is scarce or lacking. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Atmospheric metal pollution records in the Kovarska Bog (Czech Republic) as an indicator of anthropogenic activities over the last three millennia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1495778,"Soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] is the main agricultural product export of Brazil. Therefore, it is important studies that contribute to the mitigation of the effects that might cause a decrease in income and depreciation of the quality of this oleaginous plant, as the occurrence of pests and diseases, problems with soil fertility and climatic adversities, among others. It is known that plants differ in their ability to absorb silicon (Si) and are therefore classified differently. The influence of vegetation on Si in the development of soybean plants is still little known, and there are few studies described in the literature. Facing this, the objective of this work was to evaluate the response of soybean plants to variable dosage of silicon in the plantation, through agronomical characteristics of the plants in the field. The experimental design was a completely randomized block (CBD), with three replicates, eleven treatments with the following doses of silicon (0, 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400, 450 and 500 kg ha(-1)) in the soybean planting, cultivating BRS MG 68 Vencedora. Doses of silicon used did not provide significant increases in seed yield, weight of a thousand seeds, and number of seeds per vegetable, but the number of vegetables per plant, plant height and time of insertion of the first vegetable increased significantly with higher doses. Application of silicon did not have phytotoxic effects on the soybean plant.",Effects of doses of silicon in the yield and agronomic characteristics of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill],1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+105783,"1. Lake Victoria endured multiple stresses over the past century including population growth, increased cultivation of land, meteorological variability, resource extraction, intensive fishing, introduction of exotic species and more recently climate warming. These stressors became manifest through a fundamental and rapid change in the fish community and fishery in the early 1980s and visible eutrophication. However, the relation of these two phenomena and the possible interaction of the multiple stressors have been difficult to establish because of the temporally fragmented nature of the environmental data. 2. Comprehensive limnological observations from the 1960s were repeated in the 1990s and established the eutrophication of the lake, but these do not provide insight to the time course of when changes in trophic state occurred. Comprehensive fishery catch data from 1965 to the present provide a time course of the change in community composition and yield but cannot be correlated in time with discontinuous and sparse limnological data to determine possible cause-effect relationships. 3. Palaeolimnologic studies were conducted on three cores, two offshore and one nearshore, to establish a time course for the eutrophication of the lake that can be related to time-based data on the fishery. In the 1920s, the cores recorded an increase in nitrogen content of the sediments, but there was no significant response in the paleo-productivity indicators of biogenic Si deposition and change delta(13)C of deposited organic matter. Phosphorus deposition began to increase in the 1940s in all three cores after which biogenic Si deposition increased steadily over time. Responses in delta(13)C of organic matter begin in the 1960s at the coring sites. In the 1970s, the delta(13)C of organic matter at the nearshore site increased nearly 3 parts per thousand in a 10-year period likely as a response to a dramatic increase in internal P loading caused by spreading anoxia. 4. Nile perch, the large predatory fish introduced in 1954, had become established through much of the lake at low abundances by the 1970s. In 1980, the catch of this fish began to increase, and by the end of the decade, the Lake Victoria fishery was the largest lake fishery in the world; and Nile perch dominated the catch. While catches of some other fishes also increased, the endemic haplochromines suffered a catastrophic decline in abundance and loss of biodiversity. 5. The detailed chronostratigraphies for these sediment cores established that the major changes in the trophic condition of the lake were accomplished prior to the change in the fish community and that the increased primary productivity of the lake likely contributed to the increased fish catches after 1980. The increased algal abundance also would have greatly reduced visibility and facilitated the emergence of Nile perch as the dominant top predator. 6. Thematic implications: multiple stresses were present in Lake Victoria over several decades, but transition to a new ecosystem state with a transformed food web and highly productive algal community may have been triggered by a period of low wind stress and then generally warming climate since the 1970s. Unless phosphorus loading is stabilised or reduced, the ecosystem's diversity and balanced productivity will not recover, and other state transitions may occur to the detriment of the lake and its riparian populations.",Multiple stressors cause rapid ecosystem change in Lake Victoria,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+796162,"The novel ecosystem concept expands the restoration palette by focusing our attention on what is possible when recovery to an historical pre-disturbance condition is not. Although some elements of the concept have long been accepted in restoration circles, the novel ecosystem framework brings these elements to the fore. There is a growing frustration with restoration prescriptions that above all else emphasize native species and historical trajectories, and there is a clear need for alternatives that recognize real limitations to achieving these goals in at least some instances. Though not perfect, the novel ecosystem framework represents such an alternative.",What the novel ecosystem concept provides: a reply to Kattan et al,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1547261,"Widespread mortality of Thalassia testudinum was first documented in Florida Bay, USA, during the summer of 1987. This unprecedented event spanned 3 yr, affected 40 km(2) of sea-grass and resulted in more than a decade of ecological disturbances. Initial putative causes for seagrass die-off ranged from climatic anomalies and watershed changes to wasting disease and eutrophication. Subsequent experimental research suggested that hypoxic plant tissue, caused by low water column oxygen content or reduced photosynthesis, allowed intrusion of sulfide leading to plant death. Contributing factors included high temperatures, salinities and T. testudinum bio-mass, together causing lower oxygen water solubility, higher community respiration rates and elevated nighttime oxygen demand. The Fisheries Habitat Assessment Program (FHAP) has tracked the system's slow recovery since 1995. Recent FHAP data (2012) indicated that T. testudinum had returned to pre-die-off densities in even the most severely affected locations. During the summer of 2015, following several months of drought, National Park Service researchers reported hyper-saline conditions and a recurrence of seagrass die-off in north-central Florida Bay. An interagency effort is presently underway to document the duration, extent, impacts and possible factors responsible for the current mortality. Initial field surveys indicate that there is high spatial coincidence between the current and the 1987-1990 events and that hypersalinity, water column stratification and bottom-water anoxia might have once again resulted in mass mortality of T. testudinum in Florida Bay. The goal of this report is to alert the scientific community to the recurrence of this important ecological event.","Recurrence of Thalassia testudinum seagrass die-off in Florida Bay, USA: initial observations",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3980798,"The retrieval of accurate thermal histories recorded by the (U-Th)/He system relies on empirical estimates of diffusion kinetics from natural minerals, although the difficulty in obtaining samples with homogeneous gas concentrations (required for accurate diffusivities) has limited the collection of such datasets. Whole-grain analyses are relatively time- and cost-effective, but natural 4He concentration heterogeneities caused by α-ejection, diffusional rounding, and/or parent nuclide zonation present an unquantified source of error. We employ a 1D spherical finite difference diffusion model to simulate effects of natural sources of He concentration heterogeneities, with a focus on the zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) system. Using He concentration profiles affected by various natural heterogeneities, models consistently predict that diffusion kinetics are strongly underestimated using such methods, especially at low gas release fractions. These underestimations are driven by He depletion near the grain boundary caused by α-ejection, and exacerbated by U and Th depletion. Conversely, models with parent nuclide (and therefore He) enrichment near the grain boundary compensate for ejection-based loss, yielding more accurate diffusion kinetics overall. A comparison of these results to real step-heating data yields few similarities, however, with He releases from real zircons either being linear in Arrhenius space, or having anomalously high diffusivities at low fractional releases. Radiation damage and its annealing are also significant factors affecting He diffusional mechanics. Using diffusivities and annealing as predicted by the current ZHe forward model, cycled step-heating of high-dose zircons (&gt;1 × 1018 α/g) predict that diffusion decreases consistently with increased heating temperatures, similar to observations. The forward model predicts that annealing beyond this threshold dose should increase diffusivity, which is not observed, however. These results suggest that whole-grain step-heating data may provide a reasonable proxy for empirically measuring damage annealing kinetics in zircon. Major discrepancies between model results and real data reveal the need for more cycled-step heating data to understand the full complexities of He diffusion dynamics. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd",Simulating effects of heterogeneous 4He concentration profiles and radiation damage annealing on whole-grain zircon diffusivity analyses,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3916942,"Elevational changes in patterns of diversity are important to understanding of the influence of global changes, yet few studies have addressed the distribution of microorganisms, e.g. soil micro-fungi. We studied the diversity of the forest soil micro-fungi in four vegetation belts along an elevation gradient on the north slope of Changbai Mountain in Changbai National Nature Reserve. The four belts were characterized as coniferous–deciduous mixed forest, coniferous forest, Erman’s birch forest, and alpine tundra. We estimated the quantity and distribution of the fungal species in each belt and calculated three indices, viz. Shannon–Wiener diversity (H′), Pielou’s evenness (J′), and Margalef’s abundance (E), to depict fungal species diversity. A total of 932 strains were recorded and identified, representing 53 genera, and 108 species. Among these, Penicillium, Aspergillus, Trichoderma, Mucor, Rhizopus and Fusarium were the dominant genera. With increasing elevation, the quantity of fungi and values of H′, E, and J′ gradually declined. © 2016, Northeast Forestry University and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.",Diversity and distribution of soil micro-fungi along an elevation gradient on the north slope of Changbai Mountain,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1485035,"Three years (2014-15 to 2016-17) experimental data collected at Pulse Research Station, Vadodara was used to calibrate and validate the CROPGRO- pigeon pea model for three cultivars of pigeon pea (BDN 2, AGT 2 and Vaishali). The validated model was used to simulate the seed yield by changing the maximum and minimum temperature (-3 degrees to +3 degrees C) in different months (June to January) and rainfall (-25% to +25%) during July, August and September. Results revealed that the elevated temperature had negative effect on seed yield and reduced temperature had positive effect. Among the varieties, AGT 2 was least affected by the temperatures and rainfall. Vaishali was found to be most sensitive to elevated temperature.Higher rainfall during August was beneficial on seed yield of pigeon pea. Pigeon pea sown in June was most affected due to elevated temperatures and July sown was most affected by rainfall. The effect of minimum temperature on seed yield was less than that observed with maximum temperature.",Effect of intra-seasonal variation in temperature and rainfall on seed yield of pigeon pea cultivars using CROPGRO model,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+342688,"[1] Mires are key landscape elements at high latitudes and have certainly accumulated carbon during the Holocene, but their current carbon balance at the present time is very unclear. The major carbon flux is the land-atmosphere CO2 exchange and full-year data are still limited. Here we present data from 3 a (2001-2003) of continuous Eddy Covariance measurements at Degero Stormyr (64 degrees 11'N, 19 degrees 33'E) an oligotrophic, minerotrophic mire in Sweden. The climate at the site is defined as cold temperate humid, with 30-a annual precipitation and temperature means of 523 mm and +1.2 degrees C, respectively, while the mean temperatures in July and January are +14.7 degrees C and -12.4 degrees C, respectively. The length of the vegetation period was 153 +/- 15 d during the measured years. The minerotrophic mire represented a net sink for the vertical exchange of atmospheric CO2-C during the 3 a, with an average net uptake of 55 +/- 7 g ( mean +/- SD) CO2-C m(-2) a(-1). The growing season average uptake was 92 +/- 10 g CO2-C m(-2), of which approximately 40% ( 37 +/- 5 g CO2-C m(-2)) was lost during the nongrowing season. The daily average uptake over the growing season was 0.65 +/- 0.57, 0.73 +/- 0.61, and 0.68 +/- 0.62 g CO2-C m(-2) d(-1) in 2001, 2002, and 2003, respectively. The daily average net uptake for the month with highest uptake was 1.10 +/- 0.33, 1.11 +/- 0.63, and 1.22 +/- 0.55 g CO2-C m(-2) d(-1) in July 2001, July 2002, and June 2003, respectively. The daily average efflux during the nongrowing season was 0.14 +/- 0.28, 0.15 +/- 0.20, and 0.20 +/- 0.19 g CO2-C m(-2) d(-1) in the years 2001, 2002, and 2003, respectively.","Annual CO2 exchange between a nutrient-poor, minerotrophic, boreal mire and the atmosphere",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3557274,"Zhang-disease, which has been an epidemic in the southern part of China in historical periods, is a kind of pernicious malaria. This paper discusses the links between this disease and the geographical environment, the variations of its distribution, and its influence on the society and economy in affected regions. The following conclusions have been obtained: Zhang-disease is an epidemic which occurs under hot and wet climatic conditions in summer and autumn; in the past 2000 yr, the disease moved slowly to the south. At the present time, Zhang-disease is an epidemic only in the Yunnan Province. One of the main causes of the movement of the disease is population migration from north to south. Zhang-disease influences the society in the region affected in three aspects: population growth, production mode and economic development. -from English summary",A preliminary study on variations of the distribution of Zhang- disease for the past 2000 years in China,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3228501,"Plant and animal phenology is shifting in response to urbanization, with most hypotheses focusing on the 'urban heat island' (UHI) effect as the driver. However, generalities regarding the direction and magnitude of phenological response to urbanization have not yet emerged because most studies have focused on remote-sensed vegetative phenologies or at local scales with relatively few species. Furthermore, how urbanization interacts with broad-scale climate gradients remains an unknown but important component of anthropogenically driven phenological change. Here, we used a database with >22 million in situ plant phenological observations from the United States and Europe to study the joint influence of varying human population density, which serves as an urbanization measure, and of regional temperature on median flowering and leaf-out dates across a wide plant phylogenetic spectrum. Separately, increasing population density and warmer regional temperature both advanced plant flowering and leaf-out. However, the influence of human population density on plant flowering and leaf-out depends on the regional temperature: high population density advanced plant phenology in cold areas but this effect disappeared or even reversed in warm areas. UHI effects (as measured by daily land surface temperature) alone cannot explain the overall influence of urbanization on plant phenology, suggesting that urbanization also affects plant phenology via other mechanisms. Shorter plants with large specific leaf areas and early flower or leaf-out dates were most affected by urbanization and temperature changes. Our study provides strong empirical evidence that the influence of urbanization on plant phenology varies with regional temperature. Therefore, robust understanding and accurate prediction of phenological changes must take this interaction into account.",The effect of urbanization on plant phenology depends on regional temperature,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1852424,"An increase in atmospheric temperature and carbon dioxide concentration, and altered precipitation under climate change are likely to have impacts on agricultural productivity. There are comparable changes in temperature and precipitation in Sri Lanka with the global trends. This paper presents observed relationships between yield and climate and yield predictions under climate change scenarios in Sri Lanka using maize as an exemplar crop that is classified as a coarse cereal. The study was conducted at the Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, UK. The recent changes in climate were determined by analysing long term (from 1990 to 2010) daily air temperature and rainfall from six selected maize growing districts. Yield responses were statistically analysed by simple linear regression models, describing the relationship between detrended yield, rainfall, and air temperature. GLAM-the general large-area model for annual crops which is sufficiently process-based was used to simulate the maize yield for baseline and for 5 Global Climate Models (CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, MIR005, MPI-ESM-MR) of RCP8.5 scenario for mid-century. Significant (p<0.10) correlations of detrended yield for seasonal mean temperature (Moneragala, r=-0.46; Badulla, r=0.38) and seasonal total rainfall were observed only for some districts (Anuradhapura, r=0.44 to 0.52; Hambantota, r=0.49; Moneragala, r=0.35 to 0.36). Simulated yield trends correlated well (N-S, 0.49-0.65; RMSE, 144-201 kg hat) with observed values. The GCMs projected a decrease in yield caused by a shorter crop growing season due to higher temperatures and a precipitation deficit. Overall observed crop-climate correlations were exploited within GLAM for simulating maize yield for future climates and suitable adaptation strategies.","Maize and climate change in Sri Lanka: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1290653,"This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",An atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework for environment management and protection based on CAMx,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2327400,"Marine ecosystems throughout the Indo-Pacific region are highly threatened by anthropogenic stressors, yet the faunal interaction between different component habitats remains poorly understood. This information is vital as stress on one inter-connected habitat may have cascade effects on other habitats. The present study focused on the impact of inter-habitat connectivity on seagrass fish assemblages, specifically between seagrass, mangrove and reef habitats. Fish were sampled using a seine net within 3 seagrass habitats (seagrass near to reef, seagrass near to reef and mangrove, and seagrass near to mangrove) within eastern Indonesia. Visual surveys were also conducted within mangrove habitats. Fish abundance and species richness in seagrass beds in close proximity to mangroves was at least twice that found in seagrass beds that were distant from mangrove habitat. The trophic structures of seagrass fish assemblages change from being dominated by predators and omnivores close to the reef, to assemblages high in planktivores and herbivores close to mangroves. We found that mangroves enhance the fish assemblages of nearby seagrass beds probably by increasing the availability of shelter and food provision. This study indicates that Indo-Pacific seagrass beds play an important fish nursery role, which is influenced by the availability of nearby reef and mangrove habitats. Our research supports the need for ecosystem-level management of shallow water tropical habitats, but also suggests that successful management requires local-level knowledge of habitat interactions to successfully enhance or conserve fish assemblages.",High connectivity of Indo-Pacific seagrass fish assemblages with mangrove and coral reef habitats,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3883240,"1. The fisheries system of the US Virgin Islands (USVI) provided the opportunity to examine decision-making and to advise comparable fisheries throughout the tropics; it is well studied, thoroughly managed, and small in economic impact. 2. To assess (multilevel modelling), evaluate (historical baselines and comparison of size frequency distributions), and explain (regression) the fisheries status synoptically, indicators of life history, ecological, and fishery traits were applied to a 26 year long and 104 species large port biosampling database. 3. The fishery consists of stable, truncated, and overfished populations of exclusively K-selected fish species. In particular, 45 (46.9%) of 96 species show significant but not biologically meaningful trends in mean standardized length of fish caught during a period of 30 years. Yet, 93 (90.2%) of 103 species are subject to persistent growth and/or recruitment overfishing. Also, both biological and economic overfishing are positively, significantly, and largely related with the K-selected nature of these species. 4. The results are corroborated by available contextual studies that demonstrate in synthesis the buffering effect of fisheries management. This employs various monitoring, regulatory, and enhancement tools to face its major challenges of data collection and quality improvement, local and regional environmental degradation from multiple anthropogenic and natural stressors, and non-compliance. Yet, there have been increasing trends in human population size, fishing effort, and total commercial landings, decreasing trends in the catch per unit of effort, changes in the relative composition of the catch during the last 40 years, and collapsed or on the verge of collapse fished species since the 1970s have not yet recovered. 5. The USVI fisheries system would benefit from redesigning regulation of input and output controls and upgrading the environmental baseline using the ecosystembased management approach. © 2019 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons","Sustainability of a tropical, multispecies, multigear, coral-reef-associated fishery system is efficiently inferred with the direct use of long-term port biosampling length records and life-history traits, US Virgin Islands",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+307929,"Global climate change around 3-4 Myr ago is thought to have influenced the evolution of hominids, via the aridification of Africa, and may have been the precursor to Pleistocene glaciation about 2.75 Myr ago. Most explanations of these climatic events involve changes in circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean due to the closing of the Isthmus of Panama. Here we suggest, instead, that closure of the Indonesian seaway 3-4 Myr ago could be responsible for these climate changes, in particular the aridification of Africa. We use simple theory and results from an ocean circulation model to show that the northward displacement of New Guinea, about 5 Myr ago, may have switched the source of flow through Indonesia-from warm South Pacific to relatively cold North Pacific waters. This would have decreased sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, leading to reduced rainfall over eastern Africa. We further suggest that the changes in the equatorial Pacific may have reduced atmospheric heat transport from the tropics to higher latitudes, stimulating global cooling and the eventual growth of ice sheets.",Closing of the Indonesian seaway as a precursor to east African aridircation around 3-4 million years ago,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+773748,"In February 2009, a new Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site was established in the Limnopolar Lake drainage basin, in Byers Peninsula, Livingston Island (South Shetland Archipelago), Antarctica (62 degrees 38' 59.1 '' S, 61 degrees 06'16.9 '' W). The first results from active layer thickness and thermal monitoring reported interannual variations, without relevant changes in the air temperature conditions, leaving the snow cover as the most suitable agent controlling the reported changes. Here we study in detail the snow cover evolution on thickness, timing and duration during the 2009-2014 period, by the analysis of mean daily air and ground surface temperature, as well as the snow depth monitored in a stake. Freezing indexes, n-factor, and snow indexes calculations were analyzed to establish the effects of snow cover on the ground thermal regime. The evolution of the snow cover during the 2009-2014 period resulted in about similar snow depths, with mean values of about 45 cm. The snow onset remained about constant with small variations of 10 days in early March. However, the snow offset had significant variations, increasing in more than 60 days in the last three years. This delay on the snow offset resulted in an increase in the snow cover duration from 267 (2011) to 338 (2014) days. Air temperature seems not to be strongly involved in this snow cover timing variation since the highest variation on this period of the maximum and mean annual temperatures only diminished, about 1.6 degrees and 0.5 degrees C respectively, but remaining constant the minimum temperatures (between -12 degrees and -18 degrees C). In consequence, the surface temperature evolved to become less variable along the year directly related to the annual snow layer duration, trending to longer zero curtain periods. In conclusion, the increase in the snow duration is resulting in a reduction of the thaw period in the ground, but remaining similar snow cover onset dates. The consequent decrease in the snow-free period each year could result in a thinner active layer. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Snow cover evolution, on 2009-2014, at the Limnopolar Lake CALM-S site on Byers Peninsula, Livingston Island, Antarctica",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+173515,"The physiology and behaviour of ectotherms are strongly influenced by environmental temperature. A general hypothesis is that for performance traits, such as those related to growth, metabolism or locomotion, species face a trade-off between being a thermal specialist or a thermal generalist, implying a negative correlation between peak performance and performance breadth across a range of temperatures. Focusing on teleost fishes, we performed a phylogenetically informed comparative analysis of the relationship between performance peak and breadth for aerobic scope (AS), which represents whole-animal capacity available to carry out simultaneous oxygen-demanding processes (e.g. growth, locomotion, reproduction) above maintenance. Literature data for 28 species indicate that peak aerobic capacity is not linked to thermal performance breadth and that other physiological factors affecting thermal tolerance may prevent such a trade-off from emerging. The results therefore suggest that functional links between peak and thermal breadth for AS may not constrain evolutionary responses to environmental changes such as climate warming.",Is there a trade-off between peak performance and performance breadth across temperatures for aerobic scope in teleost fishes?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1301456,"The false mussel, Mytilopsis leucophaeata originating from the Atlantic coast and Gulf of Mexico in North America invaded brackish water systems in Europe. Seasonal sessile population structure is determined by spat fall, growth, and mortality. Juvenile and adult M. leucophaeata were kept in cages in a brackish water canal to study their mortality and to estimate annual and seasonal shell growth rate in relation to shell size and water temperature. Mortality increased with increasing temperature with the strongest effect on the 4-6 mm and 8-10 mm size classes. The average mortality of all size classes of M. leucophaeata in cage experiments was lowest in winter, increased from April to July, and peaked in July and August. Between a water temperature of 18 and 23 degrees C, a strong growth was observed for mussels of size classes 2-14 mm, whereas mussels of size class 14-16 mm showed only a slight growth (<20 mu m day(-1)) and size classes 16-18 mm and 18-22 mm showed no growth at all. When water temperature was between 9 and 18 degrees C, there was no or slight growth, and at lower than 9 degrees C, hardly any growth. Especially for the small mussels, the influence of the water temperature on shell growth is strong. Polynomial regression showed a mean summer growth rate of 94 mu m day(-1) for the 2-4 mm class, 37 mu m day(-1) for the 10-12 mm class, and no growth for the 18-22 mm class. Analysis of all available (literature) data yielded mean summer and annual growth rates of M. leucophaeata collected in brackish western European harbors and canals ranging from 30 to 133 mu m day(-1) and 8 to 49 mu m day(-1), respectively. Increase of water temperature by climate change or thermal discharges will increase growth rates and mortality of this mussel.","GROWTH, SURVIVAL, AND MORTALITY OF JUVENILE AND ADULT ALIEN CONRAD'S FALSE MUSSEL MYTILOPSIS LEUCOPHAEATA (CONRAD, 1831) (MOLLUSCA, BIVALVIA, DREISSENIDAE) IN A BRACKISH CANAL",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3985117,Ferritic-martensitic reduced activation steel Eurofer'97 is candidate structural material for in-vessel components of proposed fusion reactors. The use of the steel is limited up to a temperature about 550 °C. On the other hand the efficiency enhancement of the fusion reactors to the level suitable for energy production is predetermined by an increase of temperature in reactor. The long term exposition of the steel at high temperatures leads to microstructural changes. The aim of the work was to investigate the influence of short and long term thermal ageing on fracture properties of Eurofer'97 steel. Short term thermal ageing of the steel was simulated by step-cooling treatment and long term thermal ageing was simulated by isothermal annealing treatment at 550 °C/5000 h. Charpy impact tests were applied to compare the fracture resistance of the sheet before and after thermal ageing. No evident changes in impact properties have been registered comparing the properties of the steel in as-received state and in state after step-cooling. Outstanding embrittlement of the thermally aged steel was observed after long term isothermal ageing.,Fracture behavior of EUROFER'97 steel after thermal ageing,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3310292,"Gay-straight alliance (or gender-sexuality alliance; GSA) is a high-school based club aimed at providing a safer environment for sexual and gender minority youth as well as their straight allies. Yet, as a club historically rooted in addressing sexual orientation-related concerns, less attention has been given to understanding the changing relational dynamics of internal GSA activities aimed at expanding membership boundaries through the promotion of transgender inclusivity. I address this by bridging existing scholarship on GSAs, social movements, and the sociology of culture to showcase the impact boundary-spanning strategies are having on GSA mobilization, in-group solidarity, and external political and social activism. My findings reveal that membership boundary negotiations around gender diversity issues are shifting the social landscape of these clubs. Emerging barriers that impede boundary-spanning efforts are also highlighted and discussed. More broadly, I generate new theoretical insights into how boundary spanning can shape political and social activism as well as offer promising future research directions in this area.",The push for transgender inclusion: Exploring boundary spanning in the gay-straight alliance,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+741155,"The phenologies of plants and animals in snow-covered landscapes are expected to accelerate with global warming. However, there are few studies that have examined a range of unrelated taxa in alpine environments to determine whether there is commonality in the proximate causes, synchrony in timing, or the direction of any changes. Records for five alpine animal species and two alpine plant species, chosen primarily for their visibility, were examined to determine their temporal response to regional climate warming. Over the 30-year period studied, they showed an array of different phenological responses. Plant flowering appeared linked to date of snow melt, whereas animal responses varied. Although having accelerated phenologies, two migratory bird species exhibited contrary changes; one to low-altitude warming regardless of snow conditions in the alpine zone (flame robin) and the other to state of the snowpack regardless of low-altitude temperatures (Richard's pipit). By contrast, the migratory bogong moth arrived significantly later over the years with no apparent explanatory climatic cause. Although bogong moths are not responding to earlier snow melt, insectivorous predators on the ground are. This could lead to a serious mismatch in timing at different trophic levels, putting pressure on endangered vertebrates. Emergence of locally wintering insect species, March flies and Macleay's swallowtails, were not significantly related to measured climatic parameters over the study period. A consequence of the disparate responses to climate warming recorded here is the questionable value of 'indicator species' to examine the impact of climate warming on alpine ecosystems.",Alpine Taxa Exhibit Differing Responses to Climate Warming in the Snowy Mountains of Australia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3979868,"Degradation of photovoltaic (PV) backsheets is a crucial issue to malfunctions of PV system during their long-term field operations. There is a lack of understanding on the degradation mechanisms of PV backsheets under multiple weathering conditions due to the complexity of the types and sequence of formation of different degradation products. To address this problem, we used the two-dimensional (2D) correlation analysis of infrared (IR) spectra to study the degradation of a typical polyethylene terephthalate (PET)-based PV backsheet, PET/PET/ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) (PPE), by deconvoluting overlapped bands of different degradation species. The PPE backsheets were exposed to ultra-violet (UV) radiation on the NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) SPHERE (Simulated Photodegradation via High Energy Radiant Exposure) at two temperatures (45 °C and 85 °C) in dry condition (relative humidity (RH) ≈ 0%) for 40 days. Outdoor weathering was also conducted at three different sites up to 9 months, comprising a variety of climates, including tropical monsoonal, humid subtropical, and hot arid. The 2D correlation analysis explicitly showed that the PPE backsheets aged at 85 °C under UV not only had faster degradation rate but also had different dominant degradation products compared to the PPE aged at 45 °C. Degradation accelerated at lower 45 °C was found closer to that in field conditions investigated in this work. Therefore, when designing accelerated laboratory experiments, it is important to consider climatic-specific aging parameters for building reliable predictive models for degradation of PV materials. © 2020",Two-dimensional correlation spectroscopy studies on degradation of photovoltaic backsheets from indoor to outdoor,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1292975,"Estimation of the above-below ground plant biomass amount in terrestrial ecosystems is one of the most important components of climatic change programs and global carbon cycle modelling. Biomass of plant is one of the significant subjects in the studies carried out on climatic changes. For that reason, plant biomass samples were taken from different areas and different plant species in Southeastern Anatolian Region (SAR). In this study, the net plant biomass production amounts were tried to be determined with geo-statistical modelling by evaluating the results of 2293 plant biomass samples taken from the region. For that purpose, Ordinary Kriging in ArcGIS software was used and mapped. In the study, when available land uses were evaluated, the most dominant product was noticed to be wheat. According to this, samples were taken from wheat, pasture, barley, lentil, cotton and corn areas. In this study, samples were taken from 2293 points. The most sampling was performed from the areas of wheat agriculture. Average surface ground NPP amount varied between 154.66 and 1237.74 g m(-2), and the highest amount was determined in corn plant. Average under-soil NPP amounts were determined in wheat with 149.36, in barley with 63.31, in lentil with 55.90, in pastures with 41.41, in cotton with 172.73, and in corn with 437.66 g m(-2). For the analysis of the data, SPSS 10.0 statistical software was used, and the data were analysed at the level of p < 0.01-0.05.",ESTIMATION OF THE ABOVE-BELOW GROUND PLANT BIOMASS OF SOUTHEASTERN ANATOLIA REGION OF TURKEY WITH GEOSTATISTICAL MODELLING,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+456669,"Field investigations were carried out during the winters of 2001 through 2008 to investigate the annual fluctuation of the snow water equivalent (SWE) in the north catchment area of Lake Biwa in the northeast region of Shiga Prefecture, also in the southern part of the heavy snowfall area of Japan. On the basis of the observations from this study, the SWE model was developed that can simulate temporal changes in the SWE in this region. This model can calculate the SWE, using an empirical parameter specific to the Shiga Prefecture. The model was developed to include snow accumulation and snowmelt processes, using only precipitation and temperature. It was used to estimate the annual SWE over every 1-h interval at a catchment area in Yogo, Shiga Prefecture, Japan. The accumulation process involves separation of snowfall and rainfall at different temperatures by using an empirical formula. For the snowmelt process, the degree-hour method is employed. The performance of the degree-hour method depends on a region's accumulated temperature. The model was applied to data collected during the winters of 2001 and 2008, and the results compared to the observed SWE in Yogo. The observed and calculated results for 2001 are in good agreement, whereas they are not in good agreement for 2008. Thus, this model can be used to simulate different scenarios specified in the IPCC guidelines, for different temperature and precipitation values, only for the winter of 2001. © 2011 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.",Observation of snow water equivalent in the North catchment area of Lake Biwa,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2363137,"Background: Studies about the modified effect among various meteorological factors on bacillary dysentery (BD) are limited. This study aimed to investigate the effect of ambient temperature and its effect modifiers on BD in Jinan. Methods: Daily data of BD cases and meteorological factors from 2005 to 2013 were collected. A generalized additive model (GAM) was conducted to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and BD. Then a distributed lag non-linearmodel (DLNM) was developed to assess the lag and cumulative effect. Finally, the modified effect between temperature and other meteorological factors on BD was explored by the GAM and a weather-stratified model. Results: A total of 11,738 cases of BD were notified over the study period. The exposure-response relationship between temperature and BD was liner with a single threshold value of 0 degrees C. Results of DLNM showed that after temperature exceeds the threshold, each 5 degrees C rise in temperature caused a 19% (RR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.14-1.24) increase in the number of cases of BD at lag 0. The analysis of cumulative effects showed that each 5 degrees C rise in temperature can increase the number of cases by 61% (RR= 1.61, 95% CI: 1.58-1.63) at lag 0-lag 7 days. The effect modification of the association between temperature and BD by humidity was observed in our study, while the modification by precipitation and wind speed were not statistically significant. The risk of BD was highest when temperature and humidity were both high. Conclusions: Our study indicates that temperature is significantly associated with the risk of BD in the study area, and the effect can be modified by humidity. Public health professionals and medical service providers should pay more attention BD prevention and control when the weather condition of both high temperature and high humidity would occur. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Effect of ambient temperature and its effect modifiers on bacillary dysentery in Jinan, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2354931,"There is significant interest in determining the role of climate-induced shocks as a prominent driver on migration decisions of different groups of farmers in South Asia. Using data from a survey of 2,660 farm-families and focused group discussions in Bihar (India), Terai (plains) (Nepal) and coastal Bangladesh, we employed logistic regression to investigate household response towards migration and gender dimensions of adverse climatic events. The results suggest that migration decisions depend on farmers' unique resource profiles: (a) households that use migration to improve their resilience, mostly resource rich households; (b) households that have no alternative but to migrate, mostly poor farmers; and (c) households who cannot migrate due to different socio-economic obligations, mostly farmers with intermediate level of income that also includes women, children and elderly of different income profiles. These profiles represent a spectrum with households within a profile being closer to one or the other of the profiles on either side. They are not mutually exclusive and serve as a point of departure for further research to refine key explanatory variables. Given that some members of the household pursue migration as a result of adverse climatic events, government strategies are required to mitigate risks at destinations and create opportunities for the trapped populations.",Climate-induced Migration in South Asia: Migration Decisions and the Gender Dimensions of Adverse Climatic Events,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+775701,"Landfill gas (LFG) management is one of the most important tasks for landfill operation and closure because of its impact in potential global warming. The aim of this work is to present a case history evaluating an LFG capture and treatment system for the present landfill facility in Cordoba, Argentina. The results may be relevant for many developing countries around the world where landfill gas is not being properly managed. The LFG generation is evaluated by modeling gas production applying the zero-order model, Landfill Gas Emissions Model (LandGEM; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA]), Scholl Canyon model, and triangular model. Variability in waste properties, weather, and landfill management conditions are analyzed in order to evaluate the feasibility of implementing different treatment systems. The results show the advantages of capturing and treating LFG in order to reduce the emissions of gases responsible for global warming and to determine the revenue rate needed for the project's financial requirements. This particular project reduces by half the emission of equivalent tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) compared with the situation where there is no gas treatment. In addition, the study highlights the need for a change in the electricity prices if it is to be economically feasible to implement the project in the current Argentinean electrical market.","Technical and economic evaluation of biogas capture and treatment for the Piedras Blancas landfill in Cordoba, Argentina",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1350855,"Malaria parasites are strongly dependent on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; for this reason, mosquito population dynamics are a crucial determinant of malaria risk. However, temperature and rainfall play a significant role in both aquatic and adult stages of the Anopheles. Consequently, it is important to understand the biology of malaria vector mosquitoes in the study of malaria transmission. In this study, we develop a climate- based, ordinary-differential-equation model to analyze how rainfall and temperature determine mosquito population size. In the model, we consider in detail the influence of ambient temperature on gonotrophic and sporogonic cycles over Amajuba District, Kwazulu-Natal Province, South Africa. In particular, we further use the model to simulate the spatial distribution of the mosquito biting rate over the study region. Our results reflect high seasonality of the population of An. gambiae over the region and also demonstrate the influence of climatic factors on the mosquito population dynamics.","Modeling and analyzing the impact of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics over Kwazulu- Natal, South Africa",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3741689,"The purpose of this study was to develop structural equation modeling of organizational health in the Marine Fisheries Management Section under the Fisheries Management Bureau. The study was conducted with 330 subjects using confirmatory factor analysis. Four latent variables were measured from 22 observed variables. The exogenous latent variable was transformational leadership. The endogenous latent variables were: 1) organizational health 2) organizational climate, and 3) job characteristics. The results showed that the hypothetical causal model was consistent with the empirical data with χ2/df = 1.60, CFI = 0.99, GFI = 0.93, AGFI = 0.90, RMR = 0.04, and RMSEA = 0.04. The transformational leadership variables that had a direct effect were organizational health, job characteristics, and organizational climate, with standardized path coefficients of 0.72, 0.69, and 0.37, respectively. There was an indirect effect from organizational climate and organizational health, with their standardized path coefficients being 0.35 and 0.15, respectively. There was a total effect from organizational health, organizational climate, and job characteristics, with their standardized path coefficients being 0.87, 0.72, and 0.69, respectively. The job characteristics variable had an indirect effect on organizational climate, with a standardized path coefficient of 0.50. There was an indirect effect from organizational health, with a standardized path coefficient of 0.10. There was a total effect from organizational climate and job characteristics, with their standardized path coefficients being 0.50 and 0.10, respectively. Organizational climate had a direct effect on organizational health, with a standardized path coefficient of 0.21. The total effect from organizational health had a standardized path coefficient of 0.21. Organizational health, organizational climate, and job characteristics explained the variance of organizational health variables at 0.85, 0.67, and 0.54, respectively. © 2018 Kasetsart University",Structural equation modeling of organizational health in the marine fisheries management section under the fisheries management bureau,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+731711,"Rural agriculture in the Bolivian Altiplano is vulnerable to climate related shocks including drought, frost, and flooding. We examine multimodel, multiscenario projections of eight precipitation and temperature extreme indices for the Altiplano and compute temperature indices for La Paz/Alto, covering 1973-2007. Significant increasing trends in observed warm nights and warm spells are consistent with increasing temperatures in the tropical Andes. The increase in observed frost days is not simulated by the models in the 20th century, and projections of warm nights, frost days, and heat waves are consistent with projected annual cycle temperature increases; PDFs are outside their 20th century ranges by 2070-2099. Projected increases in precipitation extremes share the same sign as observed trends at Patacamaya and are consistent with annual cycle projections indicating a later rainy season characterized by less frequent, more intense precipitation. Patacamaya precipitation indices show shifts in observed distributions not seen in the models until 2020-2049, implying that precipitation changes may occur earlier than projected. The observed increase in frost days can be understood within the context of precipitation changes and an increase in radiative cooling. Model warm/wet biases suggest that a decrease in frost days may not occur as early or be as large as projected. Nevertheless, consistencies between simulated and observed extremes, other than frost days, suggest the directions of projected changes are reliable. These results are a first step toward providing the critical information necessary to reduce threats to food security and water resources in the Altiplano from changing climate.",Changing climate in the Bolivian Altiplano: CMIP3 projections for temperature and precipitation extremes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+202294,"Phenological events, such as the timing of flowering or insect emergence, are influenced by a complex combination of climatic and non-climatic factors. Although temperature is generally considered most important, other weather events such as frosts and precipitation events can also influence many species' phenology. Non-climatic variables such as photoperiod and site-specific habitat characteristics can also have important effects on phenology. Forecasting phenological shifts due to climate change requires understanding and quantifying how these multiple factors combine to affect phenology. However, current approaches to analyzing phenological data have a limited ability for quantifying multiple drivers simultaneously. Here, we use a novel statistical approach to estimate the combined effects of multiple variables, including local weather events, on the phenology of several taxa (a tree, an insect, and a fungus). We found that thermal forcing had a significant positive effect on each species, frost events delayed the phenology of the tree and butterfly, and precipitation had a positive effect on fungal fruiting. Using data from sites across latitudinal gradients, we found that these effects are remarkably consistent across sites once latitude and other site effects are accounted for. This consistency suggests an underlying biological response to these variables that is not commonly estimated using data from field observations. This approach's flexibility will be useful for forecasting ongoing phenological responses to changes in climate variability in addition to seasonal trends.",Beyond seasonal climate: statistical estimation of phenological responses to weather,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+795325,"Climate change affects the environment and natural resources immensely. Rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration are major parameters of climate affecting changes in the environment. Evapotranspiration plays a key role in crop production and water balance of a region, one of the major parameters affected by climate change. The reference evapotranspiration or ET0 is a calculated parameter used in this research. In the present study, changes in the future rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, and ET0 have been shown by downscaling the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) model data. The selected study area is located in a part of the Narmada river basin area in Madhya Pradesh in central India. The downscaled outputs of projected rainfall, ET0 and temperatures have been shown for the 21st century with the HADCM3 data of A2 scenario by the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) model. The efficiency of the LS-SVM model was measured by different statistical methods. The selected predictors show considerable correlation with the rainfall and temperature and the application of this model has been done in a basin area which is an agriculture based region and is sensitive to the change of rainfall and temperature. Results showed an increase in the future rainfall, temperatures and ET0. The temperature increase is projected in the high rise of minimum temperature in winter time and the highest increase in maximum temperature is projected in the pre-monsoon season or from March to May. Highest increase is projected in the 2080s in 2081-2091 and 2091-2099 in maximum temperature and 2091-2099 in minimum temperature in all the stations. Winter maximum temperature has been observed to have increased in the future. High rainfall is also observed with higher ET0 in some decades. Two peaks of the increase are observed in ET0 in the April-May and in the October. Variation in these parameters due to climate change might have an impact on the future water resource of the study area, which is mainly an agricultural based region, and will help in proper planning and management. (C) 2016, China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B. V.","Future changes in rainfall, temperature and reference evapotranspiration in the central India by least square support vector machine",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+710108,"The genetic control of carbon allocation and partitioning in woody perennial plants is poorly understood despite its importance for carbon sequestration, biofuels and other wood-based industries. It is also unclear how environmental cues, such as nitrogen availability, impact the genes that regulate growth, biomass allocation and wood composition in trees. We phenotyped 396 clonally replicated genotypes of an interspecific pseudo-backcross pedigree of Populus for wood composition and biomass traits in above- and below-ground organs. The loci that regulate growth, carbon allocation and partitioning under two nitrogen conditions were identified, defining the contribution of environmental cues to their genetic control. Sixty-three quantitative trait loci were identified for the 20 traits analyzed. The majority of quantitative trait loci are specific to one of the two nitrogen treatments, demonstrating significant nitrogen-dependent genetic control. A highly significant genetic correlation was observed between plant growth and lignin/cellulose composition, and quantitative trait loci co-localization identified the genomic position of potential pleiotropic regulators. Pleiotropic loci linking higher growth rates to wood with less lignin are excellent targets to engineer tree germplasm improved for pulp, paper and cellulosic ethanol production. The causative genes are being identified with a genetical genomics approach.",Quantitative genetic analysis of biomass and wood chemistry of Populus under different nitrogen levels,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+769542,"After 2003, another hot summer took place in Western and Central Europe in 2015. In this study, we compare the characteristics of the two major heat waves of these two summers and their effect on the heat related mortality. The analysis is performed with focus on South-West Germany (Baden-Wurttemberg). With an additional mean summer mortality of +7.9% (2003) and +5.8% (2015) both years mark the top-two records of the summer mortality in the period 1968-2015. In each summer, one major heat wave contributed strongly to the excess summer mortality: In August 2003, daily mortality reached anomalies of +70% and in July 2015 maximum deviations of +56% were observed. The August 2003 heat wave was very long-lasting and characterized by exceptional high maximum and minimum temperatures. In July 2015, temperatures were slightly lower than in 2003, however, the high air humidity during the day and night, lead to comparable heat loads. Furthermore, the heat wave occurred earlier during the summer, when the population was less acclimated to heat stress. Using regional climate models we project an increasing probability for future 2003- and 2015-like heat waves already in the near future (2021-2050), with a 2015-like event occurring about every second summer. In the far future (2070-2099) pronounced increases with more than two 2015-like heat waves per summer are possible.",The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3299425,"Alterations in the permafrost due to a warming climate increases the risk of permafrost thawing, accelerates carbon release, lowers super-permafrost groundwater, strengthens desertification, and destroys infrastructure. The permafrost temperature in six boreholes up to 40 m depth was measured from 2003 to 2015 along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. Results showed an increase in the permafrost temperature, with an average of 0.14 degrees C decade(-1) at 10 m depth. The deep permafrost showed significant warming with average rates of 0.11 and 0.09 degrees C decade(-1) at 20 m and 30 m depth, respectively. At 40 m depth, the cold permafrost showed significant warming trend, but no evident warming trend was observed in the warm permafrost. With the ground temperature increases, the depth of the zero annual amplitude of the ground temperature of the warm permafrost slightly increased, whereas that of the cold permafrost decreased. Permafrost thickness was < 30 m at the BL1 and TT1 sites and was thinner by 2.1 and 0.8 m from 2003 to 2015. Such changes in the permafrost temperature may have been driven by the long-term increase in the air temperature and precipitation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). In the high-middle mountain areas of the QTP, the thermal effect of warming climate on the cold permafrost reached a depth of > 40 m. In the high plain and basin of the QTP, the thermal effect of the warming climate on the warm permafrost reached a depth of 30 m.",Changes in the permafrost temperatures from 2003 to 2015 in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+422345,"Hydrological regimes of alpine rivers are highly sensitive to climate variability/change. Temperature and precipitation variability and its effects on streamflow in the upstream regions of the Lancang-Mekong River (LMR) and Nu-Salween River (NSR) are examined in this study based on long-term observational data from 16 meteorological stations and 2 hydrological stations between the 1950s and 2010. This study employs the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, together with the trend-free prewhitening (TFPW) approach to test trends and the Breaks For Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) method to detect abrupt changes in the hydrometeorological time series. The relations between air temperature, precipitation, and streamflow trends are assessed using random forest regression. The results show significant climate warming and related prevalent positive precipitation trends both at the annual and seasonal scale. A substantial precipitation increase paralleling climate warming, especially in spring, was also observed. However, no consistent abrupt change in meteorological time series was found. The increasing trends of streamflow with climate warming are seen both for the outlets of the LMR and NSR upstream regions, with the abrupt changes occurring in the mid-1960s and the late 1990s, respectively. The relation of streamflow to annual and wet season precipitation is pronounced, especially for the upstream region of the LMR with a percent variance explained of more than 65%. However, the relatively minor linkage of streamflow to air temperature and dry season precipitation may be confounded by the climate warming-driven changes in snowpack, permafrost, glacier, and evapotranspiration. These results could provide further a reference for the regional water resources management under climate change scenarios.",Temperature and Precipitation Variability and Its Effects on Streamflow in the Upstream Regions of the Lancang-Mekong and Nu-Salween Rivers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+644010,"This study evaluates the sensitivity of Washington State's freshwater habitat of Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) to climate change. Our analysis focuses on summertime stream temperatures, seasonal low flows, and changes in peak and base flows because these physical factors are likely to be key pressure points for many of Washington's salmon populations. Weekly summertime water temperatures and extreme daily high and low streamflows are evaluated under multimodel composites for A1B and B1 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Simulations predict rising water temperatures will thermally stress salmon throughout Washington's watersheds, becoming increasingly severe later in the twenty-first century. Streamflow simulations predict that basins strongly influenced by transient runoff (a mix of direct runoff from cool-season rainfall and springtime snowmelt) are most sensitive to climate change. By the 2080s, hydrologic simulations predict a complete loss of Washington's snowmelt dominant basins, and only about ten transient basins remaining in the north Cascades. Historically transient runoff watersheds will shift towards rainfall dominant behavior, undergoing more severe summer low flow periods and more frequent days with intense winter flooding. While cool-season stream temperature changes and impacts on salmon are not assessed in this study, it is possible that climate-induced warming in winter and spring will benefit parts of the freshwater life-cycle of some salmon populations enough to increase their reproductive success (or overall fitness). However, the combined effects of warming summertime stream temperatures and altered streamflows will likely reduce the reproductive success for many Washington salmon populations, with impacts varying for different life history-types and watershed-types. Diminishing streamflows and higher stream temperatures in summer will be stressful for stream-type salmon populations that have freshwater rearing periods in summer. Increased winter flooding in transient runoff watersheds will likely reduce the egg-to-fry survival rates for ocean-type and stream-type salmon.",Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3301673,"Climate change is leading to an increase of mean sea surface temperatures and extreme heat events. There is an urgent need to better understand the capabilities of marine macroalgae to adapt to these rapid changes. In this study, the responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and calcification to elevated temperature in a global warming scenario were investigated in the coralline alga Corallina officinalis. Algae were cultured for 7 weeks under 4 temperature treatments: (1) control under ambient-summer conditions (C, similar to 20 degrees C), (2) simulating a one-week heatwave of 1 degrees C (HW, T-control+1 degrees C), (3) elevated temperature (+3, T-control +3 degrees C), (4) combination of the two previous treatments (HW+3, T+3+1 degrees C). After exposure at T+ 3 (up to a T-max of similar to 23 degrees C), respiration and photosynthesis increased significantly. After 5 weeks, calcification rates were higher at elevated temperatures (T+3 and THW+3) compared to T-control, but at the end of the experiment (7 weeks) calcification decreased significantly at those temperatures beyond the thermal optimum (six-fold at T+3, and three-fold at THW+3, respectively). The same trend was noted for all the physiological processes, suggesting that a prolonged exposure to high temperatures (7 weeks up to T+3) negatively affect the physiology of C. officinalis, as a possible consequence of thermal stress. A one-week heatwave of +1 degrees C with respect to T-control (at T-HW) did not affect respiration, photosynthesis, or calcification rates. Conversely, a heatwave of 1 degrees C, when combined with the 3 degrees C increase predicted by the end of the century (at THW+3), induced a reduction of physiological rates. Continued increases in both the intensity and frequency of heatwaves under anthropogenic climate change may lead to reduced growth and survival of primary producers such as C. officinalis.",Physiological response of the coralline alga Corallina officinalis L. to both predicted long-term increases in temperature and short-term heatwave events,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3918092,"Large networks of ecological interactions, such as food webs, are complex to characterize, be it empirically or theoretically. The former requires exhaustive observations, while the latter generally requires ample data to be validated. We therefore wondered whether readily available data, namely empirically described interactions in a variety of ecosystems, could be combined to predict species interactions in data deficient ecosystems. To test this, we built a catalogue of biotic interactions from a collection of 94 empirical food webs, detailed predator-prey interaction databases and interactions from the Global Biotic Interactions (GloBI) database. We used an unsupervised machine learning method to predict interactions between any given set of taxa, given pairwise taxonomic proximity and known consumer and resource sets found in the interaction catalogue. Results suggest that pairwise interactions can be predicted with high accuracy. While conclusions are seemingly dependent on the comprehensiveness of the catalogue, knowledge of taxonomy was found to complement well the catalogue and improve predictions, especially when empirical information available is scarce. Given its high accuracy, this methodology could promote the use of food webs and network level descriptors in remote and frontier location where empirical data is hard to collect. Network characteristics could then be efficiently evaluated and correlated to levels of environmental stressors in order to improve vulnerability assessments of ecosystems to global changes, opening promising avenues for further research and for management initiatives.",Thinking outside the box - Predicting biotic interactions in data-poor environments,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+279722,"Rising CO2 concentrations and water temperatures this century are likely to have transformative effects on many coastal marine organisms. Here, we compared the responses of two life history stages (larval, juvenile) of three species of calcifying bivalves (Mercenaria mercenaria, Crassostrea virginica, and Argopecten irradians) to temperatures (24 and 28 degrees C) and CO2 concentrations (similar to 250, 390, and 750 ppm) representative of past, present, and future summer conditions in temperate estuaries. Results demonstrated that increases in temperature and CO2 each significantly depressed survival, development, growth, and lipid synthesis of M. mercenaria and A. irradians larvae and that the effects were additive. Juvenile M. mercenaria and A. irradians were negatively impacted by higher temperatures while C. virginica juveniles were not. C. virginica and A. irradians juveniles were negatively affected by higher CO2 concentrations, while M. mercenaria was not. Larvae were substantially more vulnerable to elevated CO2 than juvenile stages. These findings suggest that current and future increases in temperature and CO2 are likely to have negative consequences for coastal bivalve populations.",Effects of Elevated Temperature and Carbon Dioxide on the Growth and Survival of Larvae and Juveniles of Three Species of Northwest Atlantic Bivalves,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+572231,"The hydrological response to climate change in the Tarim River Basin was investigated by analysing the hydrological. temperature and precipitation data of the past 50 years. The long-term trend of the hydrological time-series, including air temperature, precipitation, and streamflow, was examined by using both parametric and non-parametric techniques and the plausible association between streamflow and climate change by the method of are), correlation analysis. The results show that the study area became warmer in the last few decades. The air temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase by 5%; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s and then a major increase in the 1980s and 1990s, with average annual precipitation up by 6.8 nun per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and precipitation around 1986, with mean temperature and precipitation increasing from 6.7 degrees C and 146 mm before 1986 to 7.3 degrees C and 180 mm respectively after 1986. The temperature has risen by nearly 1 degrees C over the past 50 years, possibly resulting from the impact of global climate change. Streamflows in the Aksu River and the Yarkant River have shown a significant (P < 0.05) tendency of increase. This is particularly the case for the Aksu River. The coefficients of streamflow increase in the Aksu and Yarkant Rivers are 0.41 and 0.13 respectively. The results of grey correlation analysis show that in the Aksu River. which is located in the northwest of the basin, the impact of precipitation on streamflow is much greater than that of temperature. However, in the Hotan River, which is located in the southwest of the basin, the impact of temperature on streamflow is much greater than that of precipitation. This is likely to be related to the geographic distribution of the headstreams of the rivers. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+779319,"Ambient temperatures (heat and cold) are associated with mortality, but limited research is available about groups most vulnerable to these effects in rural populations. We estimated the effects of heat and cold on daily mortality among different sociodemographic groups in the Vadu HDSS area, western India. We studied all deaths in the Vadu HDSS area during 2004-2013. A conditional logistic regression model in a case-crossover design was used. Separate analyses were carried out for summer and winter season. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for total mortality and population subgroups. Temperature above a threshold of 31 A degrees C was associated with total mortality (OR 1.48, CI = 1.05-2.09) per 1 A degrees C increase in daily mean temperature. Odds ratios were higher among females (OR 1.93; CI = 1.07-3.47), those with low education (OR 1.65; CI = 1.00-2.75), those owing larger agricultural land (OR 2.18; CI = 0.99-4.79), and farmers (OR 1.70; CI = 1.02-2.81). In winter, per 1 A degrees C decrease in mean temperature, OR for total mortality was 1.06 (CI = 1.00-1.12) in lag 0-13 days. High risk of cold-related mortality was observed among people occupied in housework (OR = 1.09; CI = 1.00-1.19). Our study suggests that both heat and cold have an impact on mortality particularly heat, but also, to a smaller degree, cold have an impact. The effects may differ partly by sex, education, and occupation. These findings might have important policy implications in preventing heat and cold effects on particularly vulnerable groups of the rural populations in low and middle-income countries with hot semi-arid climate.","Socioenvironmental factors associated with heat and cold-related mortality in Vadu HDSS, western India: a population-based case-crossover study",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+760713,"We compare changes in low birth weight and child malnutrition in 13 African countries under projected climate change versus socio-economic development scenarios. Climate scenarios are created by linking surface temperature gradients with declines in seasonal rainfall sea along with warming values of 1 degrees C and 2 degrees C. Socio-economic scenarios are developed by assigning regionally specific changes in access to household electricity and mother's education. Using these scenarios, in combination with established models of children's health, w e investigate and compare the changes in predicted health outcomes. We find that the negative effects of warming and drying on child stunting could be mitigated by positive development trends associated with increasing mothers' educational status and household access to electricity. We find less potential for these trends to mitigate how warming and drying trends impact birth weights. In short, under warming and drying, the risk o f more malnourished children is greater than the risk of more children with low birth weights, but increases in child malnutrition could be averted in regions that increase access to educational resources and basic infrastructure.",Child health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparison of changes in climate and socio-economic factors,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3893201,"We tested the hypothesis that compositional and/or phylogenetic dissimilarity of host assemblages affect compositional and/or phylogenetic dissimilarity of parasite assemblages, to different extents depending on scale, using regional surveys of fleas parasitic on small mammals from 4 biogeographical realms. Using phylogenetic community dissimilarity metric, we calculated the compositional and phylogenetic dissimilarity components between all pairs of host and parasite communities within realms and hemispheres. We then quantified the effect of compositional or phylogenetic dissimilarity in host regional assemblages, and geographical distance between assemblages, on the compositional or phylogenetic dissimilarity of flea regional assemblages within a realm, respectively. The compositional dissimilarity in host assemblages strongly affected compositional dissimilarity in flea assemblages within all realms and within both hemispheres. However, the effect of phylogenetic dissimilarity of host assemblages on that of flea assemblages was mostly confined to the Neotropics and Nearctic, but was detected in both the Old and New World at the higher scale, possibly because of phylogenetic heterogeneity in flea and host faunas between realms. The clearer effect of the compositional rather than the phylogenetic component of host community dissimilarity on flea community dissimilarity suggests important roles for host switching and ecological fitting during the assembly history of flea communities. © Copyright 2012 Cambridge University Press.",Compositional and phylogenetic dissimilarity of host communities drives dissimilarity of ectoparasite assemblages: Geographical variation and scale-dependence,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+730310,"Individual-tree measurements have been collected periodically on sites established in Kentucky, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to investigate the effects of thinning on the growth and yield of valuable hardwood species. These plots were installed between 1959 and 1985. The long-term characteristics of this data set of 47,853 trees allowed us to investigate potential climatic effects on the mortality of individual trees. Stand and tree measures of competition, monthly and annual temperatures, and precipitation were statistically assessed against mortality through proportional hazards survival analysis for 21 species groups. Competitive factors entered the models more consistently than climatic factors. However, some of the climate factors were of higher importance than some of the competitive factors. The models produced were then run using future climate predictions from conservative and extreme general circulation model scenarios to estimate possible future hazard rates of mortality. These rates varied greatly based on species group and future climate scenario because of the highly variable climate. The high variability of future climate projections make it difficult to estimate changes in future risks of tree mortality because of climate change. However, the study reiterates that managing for more resilient forests by reducing competitive stress will help mitigate the effects of climatic stress as well as many other stresses such as those caused by insects and pathogens.",Competition and Climate Affects US Hardwood-Forest Tree Mortality,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+189270,"A hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was coupled to an individual-based fish model (IBM) to study the influence of physical and biological processes on Peruvian anchovy recruitment. Temperature and the concentrations of four plankton groups from a 1991 to 2007 simulation of a Pacific basin-scaled Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) coupled with the Carbon Silicate Nitrogen Ecosystem (CoSiNE) model were used as inputs to the anchovy IBM. The anchovy IBM domain covered the upwelling area (0-20 degrees S and 70-85 W) from 0 to 100 m depth, and was 166 by 120 cells with 10 vertical. A cohort of eggs was started each month from 1991 to 2007, and individuals within each cohort followed through daily development, growth, mortality, and movement for one year. Growth was represented with a bioenergetic equation that used temperature and plankton concentrations from the ROMS-CoSiNE simulation as input. Mortality rate was stage-dependent and length-dependent. Movement of eggs and larvae was based on passive transport, and movement of juveniles and adults was a combination of passive transport and behavioral movement. Average number of days required to reach 5 cm and the number surviving to 5 cm were used as measures of recruitment. Averaged temperature and plankton concentrations within the IBM spatial domain showed strong interannual variation, and spatial and temporal patterns typical of the Peruvian upwelling system. Modeled anchovy growth and survival also showed strong interannual variation that resulted in large fluctuations in recruitment. Growth in a normal year resulted in anchovy requiring about 60-80 days to reach 5 cm and the number of recruits was around 10(10). Averaged anchovy length and number of survivors after 6 months for all monthly cohorts combined showed that good growth conditions and high survival occurred in the region from 5 S to 17 S, within 200 km offshore and in the upper 100 m. Vertically, centers of population distribution occurred at depths of 10 m and between 50 and 70 m. During the 1997-1998 El Nino, anchovy growth rate decreased so that it took fish 150-270 days to reach 5 cm, and the numbers of survivors was about five orders of magnitude lower. Model results showed anchovy during El Nino conditions were located closer to shore, farther south, and at deeper depths than in normal years. Model results of interannual variation were insensitive to the length of anchovy used to define recruitment, how passive transport and behavioral movement were combined within different life stages, and to the starting locations of the monthly egg cohorts within the IBM domain. We discuss how our results can be used to infer anchovy recruitment under future climate change.(C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Environmental influences on the interannual variation and spatial distribution of Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) population dynamics from 1991 to 2007: A three-dimensional modeling study,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1813322,"This paper considers if increases in temperature and decreases in rain associated with climate change are a potential driver of Islamist terrorism across states in Nigeria. With state-level Islamist terrorism event, temperature, rainfall and sociodemographic data for Nigeria, we estimate latent variable and count data specifications of the relationship between the number of Islamist terrorism events and climactic variation in temperature and rainfall motivated by how the psychological costs of conflict can be decreased by increases in outdoor ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. Our parameter estimates reveal that increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall increase the likelihood of Islamist terrorism in Nigeria. This suggests that global warming and reduced rainfall induced by climate change are potential drivers of terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa, and policy interventions designed to abate anthropogenic climate change can reduce violent conflict that is harmful for economic growth and development.",Climate Change and Cross-State Islamist Terrorism in Nigeria,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2365426,"The effects of warming (+3 degrees C) and drought (-30% precipitation) on the fine root decomposition of Pinus koraiensis seedlings were examined using a litter bag method. The study site included a full factorial design with two temperature and two precipitation levels, with three replicates. Litter bags containing fine root litter of 2-year-old P. koraiensis seedlings were retrieved after 3, 6, and 12 months of decomposition. After 12 months, the mass loss of fine roots was significantly increased in response to warming (control = 31.1%, warming = 35.9%, drought = 29.2%, and warming plus drought = 35.5%); no change was observed until 6 months. Mass loss was not influenced by drought or by the interaction between warming and drought. Warming increased the nitrogen concentration of fine root litter but decreased the carbon concentration and carbon/nitrogen ratio after 6 and 12 months. This may be because warming stimulated nitrogen immobilization, which reduced the carbon/nitrogen ratio. Therefore, the carbon/nitrogen ratio may be affected by warming prior to changes in the mass loss of fine roots because roots with a low carbon/nitrogen ratio are generally characterized by high available nitrogen for decomposers. These results suggest that climate change (especially warming) may cause rapid decomposition of organic matter.","Increased soil temperature stimulates changes in carbon, nitrogen, and mass loss in the fine roots of Pinus koraiensis under experimental warming and drought",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1298032,"Understanding responses by changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and climate over the past decades on streamflow in the upper Blue Nile River basin is important for water management and water resource planning in the Nile basin at large. This study assesses the long-term trends of rainfall and streamflow and analyses the responses of steamflow to changes in LULC and climate in the upper Blue Nile River basin. Findings of the Mann-Kendall (MK) test indicate statistically insignificant increasing trends for basin-wide annual, monthly, and long rainy-season rainfall but no trend for the daily, short rainy-season, and dry season rainfall. The Pettitt test did not detect any jump point in basin-wide rainfall series, except for daily time series rainfall. The findings of the MK test for daily, monthly, annual, and seasonal streamflow showed a statistically significant increasing trend. Landsat satellite images for 1973, 1985, 1995, and 2010 were used for LULC change-detection analysis. The LULC change-detection findings indicate increases in cultivated land and decreases in forest coverage prior to 1995, but forest area increases after 1995 with the area of cultivated land that decreased. Statistically, forest coverage changed from 17.4 % to 14.4%, by 12.2 %, and by 15.6 %, while cultivated land changed from 62.9 % to 65.6 %, by 67.5 %, and by 63.9 % from 1973 to 1985, in 1995, and in 2010, respectively. Results of hydrological modelling indicate that mean annual streamflow increased by 16.9 % between the 1970s and 2000s due to the combined effects of LULC and climate change. Findings on the effects of LULC change on only streamflow indicate that surface runoff and base flow are affected and are attributed to the 5.1 % reduction in forest coverage and a 4.6 % increase in cultivated land areas. The effects of climate change only revealed that the increased rainfall intensity and number of extreme rainfall events from 1971 to 2010 significantly affected the surface runoff and base flow. Hydrological impacts by climate change are more significant as compared to the impacts of LULC change for streamflow of the upper Blue Nile River basin.",Analysis of combined and isolated effects of land-use and land-cover changes and climate change on the upper Blue Nile River basin's streamflow,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1294820,"Alpine vegetation plays a crucial role in global carbon cycle. Snow cover is an essential component of alpine land cover and shows high sensitivity to climate change. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has a typical alpine vegetation ecosystem and is rich of snow resources. With global warming, the snow of the TP has undergone significant changes that will inevitably affect the growth of alpine vegetation, but observed evidence of such interaction is limited. In particular, a comprehensive understanding of the responses of alpine vegetation growth to snow cover variability is still not well characterized on TP region. To investigate this, we calculated three indicators, the start (SOS) and length (LOS) of growing season, and the maximum of normalized difference vegetation index (NOVImax) as proxies of vegetation growth dynamics from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for 2000-2015. Snow cover duration (SCD) and melt (SCM) dates were also extracted during the same time frame from the combination of MODIS and the Interactive Multi-sensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) data. We found that the snow cover phenology had a strong control on alpine vegetation growth dynamics. Furthermore, the responses of SOS, LOS and NDVImax to snow cover phenology varied among different biomes, eco-geographical zones, and temperature and precipitation gradients. The alpine steppes showed a much stronger negative correlation between SOS and SCD, and also a more evidently positive relationship between LOS and SCD than other types, indicating a longer SCD would lead to an earlier SOS and longer LOS. Most areas showed positive correlation between SOS and SCM, while a contrary response was also found in the warm but drier areas. Both SCD and SCM showed positive correlations with NDVImax, but the relationship became weaker with the increase of precipitation. Our findings provided strong evidence between vegetation growth and snow cover phenology, and changes in snow cover should be also considered when analyzing alpine vegetation growth dynamics in future,","Snow cover phenology affects alpine vegetation growth dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau: Satellite observed evidence, impacts of different biomes, and climate drivers",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+722362,"The fourth assessment report of the IPCC highlights that the global average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 to 4.0 degrees C by the year 2100 compared to current climate. Given that climate is the most important driver of the hydrological cycle, the rise in temperature could cause changes in occurrence patterns of extreme hydrologic events like streamflow droughts. An increase in frequency and severity of these events could pose serious challenges for sustainable management of water resources particular in arid regions. However, the understanding of water resources dynamics and the possible impacts of climate change on these dynamics is hindered by uncertainties in climate change models and complex hydrological responses of streams and catchments to climatic changes. Therefore observational evidence of streamflow dynamics at the local scale could play a crucial role in addressing these uncertainties and achieving a fuller reconciliation between model-based scenarios and ground truth. This paper determines spatial and temporal changes in streamflow volumes and their association with climatic factors based on the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and ANOVA to determine possible changes in streamflow over the years and their relation to climatic factors. Streamflow is generally stochastic highlighting the importance of factoring in temporal flow variability in water resources planning. There is no clear evidence that changes in climatic variables are related to streamflow behaviour.",Spatio-temporal ephemeral streamflow as influenced by climate variability in Botswana,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+142731,"In recent years extreme winter warming events have been reported in arctic areas. These events are characterized as extraordinarily warm weather episodes, occasionally combined with intense rainfall, causing ecological disturbance and challenges for arctic societies and infrastructure. Ground-ice formation due to winter rain or melting prevents ungulates from grazing, leads to vegetation browning, and impacts soil temperatures. The authors analyze changes in frequency and intensity of winter warming events in the Nordic arctic region-northern Norway, Sweden, and Finland, including the arctic islands Svalbard and Jan Mayen. This study identifies events in the longest available records of daily temperature and precipitation, as well as in future climate scenarios, and performs analyses of long-term trends for climate indices aimed to capture these individual events. Results show high frequencies of warm weather events during the 1920s-30s and the past 15 years (2000-14), causing weak positive trends over the past 90 years (1924-2014). In contrast, strong positive trends in occurrence and intensity for all climate indices are found for the past 50 years with, for example, increased rates for number of melt days of up to 9.2 days decade(-1) for the arctic islands and 3-7 days decade(-1) for the arctic mainland. Regional projections for the twenty-first century indicate a significant enhancement of the frequency and intensity of winter warming events. For northern Scandinavia, the simulations indicate a doubling in the number of warming events, compared to 1985-2014, while the projected frequencies for the arctic islands are up to 3 times higher.",Changes in Winter Warming Events in the Nordic Arctic Region,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1427938,"Background: The association between cardiovascular mortality and winter cold spells was evaluated in the population of the Czech Republic over 21-yr period 1986-2006. No comprehensive study on cold-related mortality in central Europe has been carried out despite the fact that cold air invasions are more frequent and severe in this region than in western and southern Europe. Methods: Cold spells were defined as periods of days on which air temperature does not exceed -3.5 degrees C. Days on which mortality was affected by epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections were identified and omitted from the analysis. Excess cardiovascular mortality was determined after the long-term changes and the seasonal cycle in mortality had been removed. Excess mortality during and after cold spells was examined in individual age groups and genders. Results: Cold spells were associated with positive mean excess cardiovascular mortality in all age groups (25-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ years) and in both men and women. The relative mortality effects were most pronounced and most direct in middle-aged men (25-59 years), which contrasts with majority of studies on cold-related mortality in other regions. The estimated excess mortality during the severe cold spells in January 1987 (+274 cardiovascular deaths) is comparable to that attributed to the most severe heat wave in this region in 1994. Conclusion: The results show that cold stress has a considerable impact on mortality in central Europe, representing a public health threat of an importance similar to heat waves. The elevated mortality risks in men aged 25-59 years may be related to occupational exposure of large numbers of men working outdoors in winter. Early warnings and preventive measures based on weather forecast and targeted on the susceptible parts of the population may help mitigate the effects of cold spells and save lives.",Excess cardiovascular mortality associated with cold spells in the Czech Republic,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+550230,"Climate change has prompted an earlier arrival of spring in numerous ecosystems. It is uncertain whether such changes are occurring in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling ecosystems, because these regions are subject to natural decadal climate variability, and regional climate models predict seasonal delays in upwelling. To answer this question, the phenology of 43 species of larval fishes was investigated between 1951 and 2008 off southern California. Ordination of the fish community showed earlier phenological progression in more recent years. Thirty-nine percent of seasonal peaks in larval abundance occurred earlier in the year, whereas 18% were delayed. The species whose phenology became earlier were characterized by an offshore, pelagic distribution, whereas species with delayed phenology were more likely to reside in coastal, demersal habitats. Phenological changes were more closely associated with a trend toward earlier warming of surface waters rather than decadal climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Species with long-term advances and delays in phenology reacted similarly to warming at the interannual time scale as demonstrated by responses to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The trend toward earlier spawning was correlated with changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and mesozooplankton displacement volume, but not coastal upwelling. SST and upwelling were correlated with delays in fish phenology. For species with 20th century advances in phenology, future projections indicate that current trends will continue unabated. The fate of species with delayed phenology is less clear due to differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models in projected upwelling trends.",Climate change and decadal shifts in the phenology of larval fishes in the California Current ecosystem,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+120265,"The Arctic has featured the strongest surface warming over the globe during the recent decades, and the temperature increase has been accompanied by a rapid decline in sea ice extent. However, little is known about Arctic sea ice change during the early twentieth century warming (ETCW) during 1920-1940, also a period of a strong surface warming, both globally and in the Arctic. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of Arctic winter surface air temperature (SAT) to sea ice during 1875-2008 by means of simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by estimates of the observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration. The Arctic warming trend since the 1960s is very well reproduced by the model. In contrast, ETCW in the Arctic is hardly captured. This is consistent with the fact that the sea ice extent in the forcing data does not strongly vary during ETCW. AGCM simulations with observed SST but fixed sea ice reveal a strong dependence of winter SAT on sea ice extent. In particular, the warming during the recent decades is strongly underestimated by the model, if the sea ice extent does not decline and varies only seasonally. This suggests that a significant reduction of winter Arctic sea ice extent may have also accompanied the early twentieth century warming, pointing toward an important link between anomalous sea ice extent and Arctic surface temperature variability.",The early twentieth century warming and winter Arctic sea ice,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+71904,"The phenology of a landscape is a key parameter in climate and biogeochemical cycle models and its correct representation is central to the accurate simulation of carbon, water and energy exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere. Whereas biogeographic phenological patterns and shifts have received much attention in temperate ecosystems, much less is known about the phenology of savannas, despite their sensitivity to climate change and their coverage of approximately one eighth of the global land surface. Savannas are complex assemblages of multiple tree, shrub, and grass vegetation strata, each with variable phenological responses to seasonal climate and environmental variables. The objectives of this study were to investigate biogeographical and inter-annual patterns in savanna phenology along a 1100 km ecological rainfall gradient, known as North Australian Tropical Transect (NATT), encompassing humid coastal Eucalyptus forests and woodlands to xeric inland Acacia woodlands and shrublands. Key phenology transition dates (start, peak, end, and length of seasonal greening periods) were extracted from 13 years (2000-2012) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). Two distinct biogeographical patterns in phenology were observed, controlled by different climate systems. The northern (mesic) portion of the transect, from 12 S, to around 17.7 degrees S, was influenced by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (IT) seasonal monsoon climate system, resulting in strong latitudinal shifts in phenology patterns, primarily associated with the functional response of the C4 grass layer. Both the start and end of the greening ( enhanced vegetation activity) season occurred earlier in the northern tropical savannas and were progressively delayed towards the southern limit of the Eucalyptus-dominated savannas resulting in relatively stable length of greening periods. In contrast, the southern xeric portion of the study area was largely decoupled from monsoonal influences and exhibited highly variable phenology that was largely rainfall pulse driven. The seasonal greening periods were generally shorter but fluctuated widely from no detectable greening during extended drought periods to length of greening seasons that exceeded those in the more mesic northern savannas in some wet years. This was in part due to more extreme rainfall variability, as well as a C3/C4 grass-forb understory that provided the potential for extended greening periods. Phenology of Acacia dominated savannas displayed a much greater overall responsiveness to hydroclimatic variability. The variance in annual precipitation alone could explain 80% of the variances in the length of greening season across the major vegetation groups. We also found that increased variation in the timing of phenology was coupled with a decreasing tree-grass ratio. We further compared the satellite-based phenology results with tower-derived measures of Gross Ecosystem Production (GEP) fluxes at three sites over two contrasting savanna classes. We found good convergence between MODIS EVI and tower GEP, thereby confirming the potential to link these two independent data sources to better understand savanna ecosystem functioning. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.",Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics in savanna vegetation phenology across the North Australian Tropical Transect,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+546103,"Mechanisms that support reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD/REDD+) have potential to counteract a large share of global greenhouse gas emissions if implemented effectively across the tropics. In 2007 the conference of parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change called upon parties and international organizations to promote REDD through investments in capacity building and demonstration activities. This prompted many new actors to become involved in REDD activities at a variety of locations and scales. A global survey of REDD activities was undertaken in 2009 to enable better understanding of the intensity and geographic distribution of these activities. Existing compilations, literature review, web-based sources, face-to-face and telephone interviews, and e-mail questionnaires were used to compile data for the inventory. Inter alia, data were collected on the location of activities and official and unofficial factors influencing location choices. Inventory data were combined with secondary data to estimate a statistical count model (Poisson) of factors affecting the number of REDD activities undertaken in the 64 developing countries that experienced significant emissions from deforestation. The results show that there were at least 79 REDD readiness activities and 100 REDD demonstration activities as of October 2009. Of these, the largest shares of REDD readiness and demonstration activities were implemented in Indonesia (7 and 15 respectively) and Brazil (4 and 13 respectively), countries widely agreed to have the greatest potential for reducing forest-based emissions. The statistical results found no national characteristic to have a statistically-significant effect on the number of REDD readiness activities, but five national characteristics to have significant effects on the number of REDD demonstration projects. Baseline CO2 emissions, forest carbon stock, number of threatened species, quality of governance, and region all had significant effects. The results reveal the importance of biodiversity and good governance, and the relative unimportance of human need and opportunity cost of land. The results also reveal a bias against Africa and toward Latin America. Unless this pattern is countered, REDD and REDD+ may have geographic biases that undermine its broad political support. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Locating REDD: A global survey and analysis of REDD readiness and demonstration activities,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3305173,"The study presents an assessment of the recent and projected changes of the middle and upper Western Dvina River runoff and regional climate during the 20th and 21st centuries. For this assessment, we used historical runoff data, the output of EURO-CORDEX consortium calculations for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and hydrological model ""Hydrograph."" Analysis of monthly runoff data for the 1945-2015 period revealed positive trends for each of the five months from December to April. These trends are statistically significant at the 0.05 level. No significant trends were found for other months. Significant negative trends were established for spring flood peak discharges (from -69 to -88 m(3) s(-1) per 10 years). Usually, maximum discharges are observed during spring floods. Minimum discharges during winter low-water period were increased by 6 m(3) s(-1) per 10 years. The annual runoff trend was statistically significant only at the Polotsk gauging station (9.5 m(3) s(-1) per 10 years). To the end of the current century over the study region, estimates of projected meteorological parameters (air temperature and precipitation) show positive tendencies of air temperature (from 2.4 degrees C to 4.7 degrees C depending on scenario) and precipitation (up to 15 to 30 mm). Changes of seasonal and annual temperature and precipitation vary depending on the models and scenarios used. The strongest changes were noticed for the RCP8.5 scenario. The greatest changes within each scenario were revealed for the winter and spring seasons. It is projected that during the 2021-2100 period according to both RCP scenarios, annual discharges will not change in the upper part of the Western Dvina River Basin and increase by 10-12% in its lower part. The maximum spring flood discharges in both RCP scenarios are expected to decrease by 25%. The minimum runoff of winter low-flow period is expected to increase by up to 60 to 90% above the present long-term mean values.",The Past and Future Estimates of Climate and Streamflow Changes in the Western Dvina River Basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1024692,"The purpose of this paper is to analyze how SMEs define the components of their business models (value proposition, creation and capture) from the point of view of decarbonization. We analyze SMEs as a group, and study whether their size affects this process and, in both cases, we examine evolution over time. We use a database comprising 1161 observations of SMEs, 466 in 2014, and 695 in 2016. The results show that SMEs' value propositions give an intermediate valuation to both legally required and voluntary reduction of environmental impact, irrespective of SME size and the year analyzed. Regarding value creation, SMEs adopt practically no environmental practices, and there are significant differences according to size, with more difficulties than advantages stemming from small size. The study also shows that such environmental practices are not effective in reducing carbon. This diagnosis indicates that SMEs need help from the administration if they are to play a key role in the process of transformation toward a low-carbon economy. Legislative actions involving harsher environmental protection measures might help shape value propositions that place greater importance on reducing environmental impact, whereas training actions on available environmental techniques, promotion of research on how to adapt such techniques to SMEs and the development of specific practices for SMEs might enhance environmental value creation and capture in their BMs.",The Role of SMEs' Green Business Models in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy: Differences in Their Design and Degree of Adoption Stemming from Business Size,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+467895,"High temperature and heat waves are linked to excess mortality and morbidity and have been increasing in frequency and intensity along with a warming climate. The present study aimed to investigate the relationship between daily maximum temperature and all-cause mortality in Wuhan, China, during the summers of 2005-2012. Differences in mortality rate between heat wave (HW) and non-heat wave days were examined using t test and the responses of different age groups and genders during heat waves were examined using paired t test. Results showed that excess mortality of residents was significantly positively correlated with high temperature in the summer of Wuhan City. Both mortalities for aged male and female (above 64 years old) were sensitive to the temperature change, while in the young group (around 14-64 years old), only the males were sensitive. The extreme mortality associated with temperature increases was approximately a logarithmic curve. Among the low, moderate and high HW, the mortality rate under the moderate HW was the greatest. Within 1 year, the highest mortality rate typically occurred when encountering the first to third HW event and the mortality rate decreased after three HW events. Another interesting finding was that the highest mortality rate of young groups often occurred in the first and third day of a HW, while that of the aged groups was in the second and fourth day.","Impact of high temperature on the mortality in summer of Wuhan, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3314818,"This article presents results of the survey of Siberian Yupik ecological knowledge conducted in Chukotka in 1995 as part of the project ''Environmental Change and Indigenous Knowledge in Siberia and Alaska.'' The study was aimed at documenting indigenous knowledge in transition, as it is currently shared by modern people of various backgrounds and age groups. As the interviews reveal, current transformation of indigenous ecological knowledge does not progress in direct conjunction with the loss of Native language nor with the extension of formal schooling, Actually, it creates a sort of ''mixed culture'' where certain traditional ideas and beliefs are reinterpreted and reformulated from the perspectives of other culture. As such, the expertise in Yupik knowledge (unlike expertise in Native language) often becomes a matter of individual choice and of personal drive and interest in one's Native tradition. This opens up the prospect of renewed strength and even of revival of Yupik ecological knowledge via the cultural revitalization movement which is currently taking place in Chukotka and elsewhere in the Arctic.",Indigenous knowledge in modern culture: Siberian Yupik ecological legacy in transition,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+666119,"Climate change-induced increases in summer water temperature have been associated with elevated mortality of adult sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka) during river migration. We show that cardiorespiratory physiology varies at the population level among Fraser River sockeye salmon and relates to historical environmental conditions encountered while migrating. Fish from populations with more challenging migratory environments have greater aerobic scope, larger hearts, and better coronary supply. Furthermore, thermal optima for aerobic, cardiac, and heart rate scopes are consistent with the historic river temperature ranges for each population. This study suggests that physiological adaptation occurs at a very local scale, with population-specific thermal limits being set by physiological limitations in aerobic performance, possibly due to cardiac collapse at high temperatures.",Differences in Thermal Tolerance Among Sockeye Salmon Populations,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3322360,"Earth's hydroclimatic variability is increasing, with changes in the frequency of extreme events that may negatively affect forest ecosystems. We examined possible consequences of changing precipitation variability using tree rings in the conterminous United States. While many growth records showed either little evidence of precipitation limitation or linear relationships to precipitation, growth of some species (particularly those in semi-arid regions) responded asymmetrically to precipitation such that tree growth reductions during dry years were greater than, and not compensated by, increases during wet years. The U.S. Southwest, in particular, showed a large increase in precipitation variability, coupled with asymmetric responses of growth to precipitation. Simulations suggested roughly a twofold increase in the probability of large negative growth anomalies across the Southwest resulting solely from 20th century increases in variability of cool-season precipitation. Models project continued increases in precipitation variability, portending future growth reductions across semiarid forests of the western United States.",Reduced tree growth in the semiarid United States due to asymmetric responses to intensifying precipitation extremes,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2339872,"The northern San Francisco Estuary (nSFE) is an urban estuary supplied with anthropogenic nutrient inputs, yet spring blooms are uncommon and phytoplankton biomass is low. The low levels of chlorophyll (< 5 A mu g L-1) have likely contributed to declines in several native fishes, and there is a need to evaluate the conditions that could allow for increased phytoplankton. Increased ammonium (NH4) loads have been hypothesized to modulate the magnitude of blooms in nSFE (the ""NH4 hypothesis"") as a result of inhibition of phytoplankton NO3 uptake that limits access to the greater nitrogen (N) pool of nitrate (NO3). This hypothesis, tested in enclosures, but not in the field until now, is that lack of access to NO3 limits primary production and consequently the accumulation of chlorophyll. Here, we test this in the field with the following aims: (1) to observe the uptake response of phytoplankton in different flow and N loading conditions, (2) determine whether the sequence of uptake rates suggested by the ""NH4 hypothesis"" occurs and (3) obtain depth-integrated nutrient uptake rates to better constrain published criteria for bloom formation. Weekly measurements of NH4 and NO3 uptake, and primary production rates were made during spring 2011-2012, along with nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations during two contrasting hydrological conditions of high vs low freshwater flow. In conditions with high freshwater flow (maximum of 2405 m(3) s(-1)), there were lower nutrient concentrations than with low/normal flows (e.g., NO3 of 10 A mu mol L-1 compared to 30 A mu mol L-1), with low N uptake and primary production rates. With low flow (maximum of 1304 m(3) s(-1)), there was elevated chlorophyll and blooms occurred, especially in shallow well-lit shoals where chlorophyll reached 60 A mu g L-1. The higher levels of chlorophyll and primary productivity resulted from uptake of ambient NO3 by phytoplankton, and f-ratios > 0.5. This was enabled by phytoplankton uptake of NH4 to below inhibitory levels, as proposed by the ""NH4 hypothesis."" The depth-integrated uptake rate data were used to refine a model that yields flow and nutrient concentration criteria necessary for bloom formation and confirmed that washout flows were the most useful predictor of blooms. Understanding the interaction of phytoplankton biomass with nutrient variability requires evaluating changes in C and N uptake rates and river flow. These dynamic changes are central to understanding why some urban estuaries have lower productivity than expected, and would be difficult to evaluate using biomass data alone. This study points to the importance of treating inorganic N separately as NH4 and NO3 rather than lumping together as DIN and to use rate process data as a mechanistic way to understand, predict and minimize cultural eutrophication impacts.",Nutrient uptake and primary productivity in an urban estuary: using rate measurements to evaluate phytoplankton response to different hydrological and nutrient conditions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3305878,"High-elevation forests are experiencing high rates of warming, in combination with CO2 rise and (sometimes) drying trends. In these montane systems, the effects of environmental changes on tree growth are also modified by elevation itself, thus complicating our ability to predict effects of future climate change. Tree-ring analysis along an elevation gradient allows quantifying effects of gradual and annual environmental changes. Here, we study long-term physiological (ratio of internal to ambient CO2, i.e., C-i/C-a and intrinsic water-use efficiency, iWUE) and growth responses (tree-ring width) of Himalayan fir (Abies spectabilis) trees in response to warming, drying, and CO2 rise. Our study was conducted along elevational gradients in a dry and a wet region in the central Himalaya. We combined dendrochronology and stable carbon isotopes (delta C-13) to quantify long-term trends in C-i/C-a ratio and iWUE (delta C-13-derived), growth (mixed-effects models), and evaluate climate sensitivity (correlations). We found that iWUE increased over time at all elevations, with stronger increase in the dry region. Climate-growth relations showed growth-limiting effects of spring moisture (dry region) and summer temperature (wet region), and negative effects of temperature (dry region). We found negative growth trends at lower elevations (dry and wet regions), suggesting that continental-scale warming and regional drying reduced tree growth. This interpretation is supported by delta C-13-derived long-term physiological responses, which are consistent with responses to reduced moisture and increased vapor pressure deficit. At high elevations (wet region), we found positive growth trends, suggesting that warming has favored tree growth in regions where temperature most strongly limits growth. At lower elevations (dry and wet regions), the positive effects of CO2 rise did not mitigate the negative effects of warming and drying on tree growth. Our results raise concerns on the productivity of Himalayan fir forests at low and middle (<3,300 m) elevations as climate change progresses.",Long-term physiological and growth responses of Himalayan fir to environmental change are mediated by mean climate,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1288383,"Over recent decades, studies have examined various morbidity and mortality outcomes associated with heat exposure. This review explores the collective knowledge of the temporal trends of heat on human health, with regard to the hypothesis that humans are less vulnerable to heat events presently than in the past. Using Web of Science and Scopus, the authors identified all peer-reviewed articles that contained keywords on human impact (e.g. mortality, morbidity) and meteorological component (e.g. heat, heatwave). After sorting, a total of 71 articles, both case studies and epidemiological studies, contained explicit assessments of temporal trends in human vulnerability, and thus were used in this review. Most of the studies utilized mortality data, focused on the developed world, and showed a general decrease in heat sensitivity. Factors such as the implementation of a heat warning system, increased awareness, and improved quality of life were cited as contributing factors that led to the decreased impact of heat. Despite the overall recent decreases in heat vulnerability, spatial variability was shown, and differences with respect to health outcomes were also discussed. Several papers noted increases in heat's impact on human health, particularly when unprecedented conditions occurred. Further, many populations, from outdoor workers to rural residents, in addition to the populations in much of the developing world, have been significantly underrepresented in research to date, and temporal changes in their vulnerability should be assessed in future studies. Moreover, continued monitoring and improvement of heat intervention is needed; with projected changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat events combined with shifts in demographics, heat will remain a major public health issue moving forward.",Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1444044,"The Amazon basin hosts half the planet's remaining moist tropical forests, but they may be threatened in a warming world. Nevertheless, climate model predictions vary from rapid drying to modest wetting. Here we report that the catchment of the world's largest river is experiencing a substantial wetting trend since approximately 1990. This intensification of the hydrological cycle is concentrated overwhelmingly in the wet season driving progressively greater differences in Amazon peak and minimum flows. The onset of the trend coincides with the onset of an upward trend in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST). This positive longer-term correlation contrasts with the short-term, negative response of basin-wide precipitation to positive anomalies in tropical North Atlantic SST, which are driven by temporary shifts in the intertropical convergence zone position. We propose that the Amazon precipitation changes since 1990 are instead related to increasing atmospheric water vapor import from the warming tropical Atlantic.",Intensification of the Amazon hydrological cycle over the last two decades,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+261004,"The effect of increasing day temperature on reducing seed set in rice is well established, but little is known concerning the impact of increasing night temperature relative to constant day temperature. Recent work suggests that anticipated global warming may be uneven, with a significant increase in night compared to day temperature. Sun-lit, outdoor environment chambers were used to determine the impact of increasing night temperatures at two constant day temperatures (29/21, 29/25, 29/29 degrees C and 33/25, 33/29 and 33/33 degrees C) as well as increasing day/night temperature (29/21, 33/25 and 36/29 degrees C) on growth and yield of rice (cv. IR 72). Increasing day/night temperature to 36/29 degrees C resulted in a significant reduction in both plant biomass and grain yield at harvest. At a constant day temperature of 29 degrees C, increasing night temperature did not significantly alter growth or yield; however, increasing night temperature at a day temperature of 33 degrees C (8 h duration) resulted in a significant decline in grain yield, primarily due to reduced seed set. The decline in grain yield at 33 degrees C with increasing night time temperature was similar to that observed at a day/night temperature of 36/29 degrees C. Data from this experiment suggest that higher night time temperatures per se could increase the susceptibility of rice to sterility with a subsequent reduction in seed set and grain yield.",Increasing night temperature can reduce seed set and potential yield of tropical rice,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+33502,"We estimate area burned in southern California at mid-century (2046-2065) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. We develop both regressions and a parameterization to predict area burned in three ecoregions, and apply present-day (1981-2000) and future meteorology from the suite of general circulation models to these fire prediction tools. The regressions account for the impacts of both current and antecedent meteorological factors on wildfire activity and explain 40-46 % of the variance in area burned during 1980-2009. The parameterization yields area burned as a function of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity, and includes the impact of Santa Ana wind and other geographical factors on wildfires. It explains 38 % of the variance in area burned over southern California as a whole, and 64 % of the variance in southwestern California. The parameterization also captures the seasonality of wildfires in three ecoregions of southern California. Using the regressions, we find that area burned likely doubles in Southwestern California by midcentury, and increases by 35 % in the Sierra Nevada and 10 % in central western California. The parameterization suggests a likely increase of 40 % in area burned in southwestern California and 50 % in the Sierra Nevada by midcentury. It also predicts a longer fire season in southwestern California due to warmer and drier conditions on Santa Ana days in November. Our method provides robust estimates of area burned at midcentury, a key metric which can be used to calculate the fire-related effects on air quality, human health, and the associated costs.",Projection of wildfire activity in southern California in the mid-twenty-first century,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+273158,"In climate change science, detection is the demonstration that climate has changed in some defined statistical sense. A change is detected in observations if its likelihood of occurrence by random chance due to internal, natural climate variability is small. Attribution is the process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of confidence. Evidence of a human influence on the global climate has accumulated steadily during the past two decades, based on such detection and attribution studies. This paper is a review of detection and attribution studies of Australian climate trends. The major Australian climate trends observed over the past 50 years or so are: Mean maximum (daytime) temperature has increased over most of Australia, with cooling in the northwest (very strong in summer) and along the south coast of Western Australia (in most seasons). Mean minimum (night-time) temperature has increased over nearly all of the country except for cooling in some parts in the inland northwest (in all seasons except spring, although the location of the cooling varies between seasons). Annual rainfall has increased in the northwest (a summer phenomenon), decreased in the southwest (a winter phenomenon) and along and inland from the east coast (Queensland in summer; New South Wales in winter). Pan evaporation has declined about three per cent since the mid-1970s. Detection and attribution studies of Australian climate indicate that: The widespread warming is very likely to be due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations. The rainfall decrease in southwest Western Australia is likely due to a combination of increased greenhouse gas concentrations, natural climate variability and land-use change. The increased summer rainfall in northwest Australia may be due to increased aerosols resulting from human activity, especially in Asia. The apparent decline in pan evaporation is mainly due to changes in instrumental exposure. No study has attributed a cause to the rainfall decrease along the east coast. The highest priority for new detection and attribution studies would appear to be the decline in east coast rainfall, because of the large population and high economic value of this region, the dearth of relevant studies, and the magnitude of the apparent change. A more comprehensive, Australia-wide, formal detection and attribution study to determine bow firmly we can conclude that human activity has affected Australian rainfall in general, is also a high priority.",Detecting and attributing Australian climate change: a review,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+781179,"The Shiyang river basin is a typical arid inland river basin in northwestern China, where significant climate change and ecological environment deterioration has been observed over the past several decades. The vegetation in Shiyang river basin is mostly concentrated in its upstream, and plays an important role in ecological environment of this watershed. However, how the regional vegetation responds to such climatic change is poorly understood. To address this question, the spatiotemporal changes of vegetation growth in upper Shiyang river basin together with their responses to climate changes were investigated using SPOT VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climate datasets from 1999 to 2013. Results reveal that about 81.3% of the study area shows an increasing trend in NDVI. The average NDVI of the study area increases at rates of 7.75% for the growing season (March November), 11.75% for spring (March May), 9.62% for summer (June August), and 5.98% for autumn (September November) over the study period. The increase of NDVI in spring and autumn suggests the growing season of the vegetation in this study area has been prolonged. The effects of climate changes on vegetation growth vary with the types of vegetation and seasons, which shows a large spatial and temporal heterogeneity. As compared with temperature, precipitation is the dominant climatic factor affecting the interannual variations of vegetation. If the temperature and precipitation continue to increase in the study area, the sensitivity of vegetation growth to temperature and precipitation may decline. (C) 2017 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Spatiotemporal changes of vegetation and their responses to temperature and precipitation in upper Shiyang river basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3920275,"The airborne microorganisms has received attention in recent years due to concerns with fungal contamination in indoor environments and the occurrence of associated health effects, including infectious diseases, acute toxic effects, allergies and cancer. Madeira Island has a subtropical climate favorable to microorganism development. The aim of this work was the bacterial and fungal monitorization in several public places in Madeira Island. Seven museums, ten libraries, eight churches and twelve schools were studied. The results of the investigation revealed that the total concentrations of airborne bacteria were significantly higher in schools, where 67% of the measures exceeded the 500 CFU/m3, and lowest in churches and museums, where none of the results exceeded the 500 CFU/m3. A predominance of Gram (+) bacteria was observed. The total concentrations of airborne fungi were similar in the different places, 25 to 30% exceed the 1000 CFU/m3. The predominant fungus species identified in the indoor environment were Cladosporium, Penicillium, Rhizopus and Fusarium.",Indoor and outdoor airborne microorganisms in Madeira Island,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+153054,"This study was conducted in the Swedish sub-Arctic, near Abisko, in order to assess the direction and scale of possible vegetation changes in the alpine-birch forest ecotone. We have re-surveyed shrub, tree and vegetation data at 549 plots grouped into 61 clusters. The plots were originally surveyed in 1997 and re-surveyed in 2010. Our study is unique for the area as we have quantitatively estimated a 19% increase in tree biomass mainly within the existing birch forest. We also found significant increases in the cover of two vegetation types-""birch forest-heath with mosses'' and ""meadow with low herbs'', while the cover of snowbed vegetation decreased significantly. The vegetation changes might be caused by climate, herbivory and past human impact but irrespective of the causes, the observed transition of the vegetation will have substantial effects on the mountain ecosystems.","Changes in Tree Growth, Biomass and Vegetation Over a 13-Year Period in the Swedish Sub-Arctic",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+448392,"This paper analyzes trends and possible future developments in global wood-product markets and discusses implications for the Swedish forest sector. Four possible futures, or scenarios, are considered, based on qualitative scenario analysis. The scenarios are distinguished principally by divergent futures with respect to two highly influential factors driving change in global wood-product markets, whose future development is unpredictable. These so-called critical uncertainties were found to be degrees to which: (i) current patterns of globalization will continue, or be replaced by regionalism, and (ii) concern about the environment, particularly climate change, related policy initiatives and customer preferences, will materialize. The overall future of the Swedish solid wood-product industry looks bright, irrespective of which of the four possible futures occurs, provided it accommodates the expected growth in demand for factory-made, energy-efficient construction components. The prospects for the pulp and paper industry in Sweden appear more ambiguous. Globalization is increasingly shifting production and consumption to the Southern hemisphere, adversely affecting employment and forest owners in Sweden. Further, technical progress in information and communication technology (ICT) is expected to lead to drastic reductions in demand for newsprint and printing paper. Chemical pulp producers may profit from a growing bio-energy industry, since they could manufacture new, high-value products in integrated bio-refineries. Mechanical pulp producers cannot do this, however, and might suffer from higher prices for raw materials and electricity.",Trends and Possible Future Developments in Global Forest-Product Markets-Implications for the Swedish Forest Sector,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+770379,"Climate change is expected to increase heat-related and decrease cold-related mortality. The extent of acclimatization of the population to gradually-changing thermal conditions is not well understood. We aimed to define the relationship between mortality and temperature extremes in different age groups in the Helsinki-Uusimaa hospital district in Southern Finland, and changes in sensitivity of the population to temperature extremes over the period of 1972-2014. Time series of mortality were made stationary with a method that utilizes 365-day Gaussian smoothing, removes trends and seasonality, and gives relative mortality as the result. We used generalized additive models to examine the association of relative mortality to physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) and to air temperature in the 43-year study period and in two 21-year long sub-periods (1972-1992 and 1994-2014). We calculated the mean values of relative mortality in percentile-based categories of thermal indices. Relative mortality increases more in the hot than in the cold tail of the thermal distribution. The increase is strongest among those aged 75 years and older, but is somewhat elevated even among those younger than 65 years. Above the 99th percentile of the PET distribution, the all-aged relative mortality decreased in time from 18.3 to 8.6%. Among those >= 75 years old, the decrease in relative mortality between the sub-periods were found to be above the 90th percentile. The dependence of relative mortality on cold extremes was negligible, except among those >= 75 years old, in the latter period. Thus, heat-related mortality is also remarkable in Finland, but the sensitivity to heat stress has decreased over the decades.","Biometeorological Assessment of Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures in Helsinki Region, Finland, 1972-2014",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2319564,"Aim: Considerable controversy exists over the nature of the ""Biodiversity Crisis."" While some studies suggest declining diversity, others suggest no loss on average. Population declines necessarily precede species loss and may therefore be a more sensitive metric. We examine trends in abundances to test the hypotheses: (1) losses are experienced disproportionately by some taxa, in particular amphibians; (2) positive trends in alien or unexploited species mask declines in native or exploited species, respectively; (3) populations are becoming more unstable, and variances of within-population growth rates are increasing. Location: Freshwater and terrestrial habitats in North America and Europe. Methods: We analysed abundances of 4,343 population time series of 983 species of temperate amphibians, birds, bony fishes, reptiles and mammals from 1970 to 2014. Population mean trends were estimated using a state-space model to account for observation error, and then, linear mixed-effects models were used to test mean differences among groups. As a measure of instability, trends over time in variance of population growth rates were analysed using a Breusch-Pagan test for heteroscedacity, and integrated across populations using meta-analysis. Results: Mean trends for amphibians suggested a systematic decline, whereas birds, reptiles and mammals were increasing, on average, and freshwater fishes showed no net change in general. Origin and exploitation status did not explain the mean patterns. Large-bodied birds and range-restricted mammals exhibited stronger increases compared to their counterparts. For all taxonomic groups, population fluctuations have been increasing overall. Main conclusions: Addressing amphibian declines should be a priority in temperate regions. Comparatively, the lack of broad declines in the other vertebrate classes is promising and not attributable to increases in alien or non-exploited species. Yet, caution remains warranted given that patterns of increasing variance suggested that populations are generally becoming more unstable, even in temperate, developed nations, with arguably the strongest environmental regulations.",Trends in mean growth and stability in temperate vertebrate populations,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+56793,"In this article, we review evidence of how climate change has already resulted in clearly discernable changes in marine Arctic ecosystems. After defining the term 'footprint' and evaluating the availability of reliable baseline information we review the published literature to synthesize the footprints of climate change impacts in marine Arctic ecosystems reported as of mid-2009. We found a total of 51 reports of documented changes in Arctic marine biota in response to climate change. Among the responses evaluated were range shifts and changes in abundance, growth/condition, behaviour/phenology and community/regime shifts. Most reports concerned marine mammals, particularly polar bears, and fish. The number of well-documented changes in planktonic and benthic systems was surprisingly low. Evident losses of endemic species in the Arctic Ocean, and in ice algae production and associated community remained difficult to evaluate due to the lack of quantitative reports of its abundance and distribution. Very few footprints of climate change were reported in the literature from regions such as the wide Siberian shelf and the central Arctic Ocean due to the limited research effort made in these ecosystems. Despite the alarming nature of warming and its strong potential effects in the Arctic Ocean the research effort evaluating the impacts of climate change in this region is rather limited.",Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+33946,"Balsam fir (Abies balsamea) is a shade-tolerant conifer that experiences striking growth suppression from browsing of the understory of mixed, boreal-type forests of Isle Royale, Michigan, where it forms an important component of moose (Alces alces) diet in winter. Suppression increases with increasing canopy cover and forest age. However, response to an individual, severe browsing episode cannot be generalized in terms of suppression. Such shorter-term responses are best investigated by experimentation. Artificial removal of foliage from understory balsam fir in two sites on Isle Royale and one mainland site showed that damage such as reduced terminal growth and complete mortality was actually highest among least suppressed trees. Canopy cover produced a secondary effect, in which trees experiencing >60% cover were unable to compensate for removal by clipping. Among less suppressed trees, competition for limited light produced an apically oriented morphology that countered the laterally oriented morphology associated with suppression. Higher vulnerability to the artificial browsing occurred because trees were no longer protected by snow cover. By the second growing season following clipping, surviving clipped trees even in the most damaged sites resumed the same growth as controls. Over the long term, suppression may be a means by which fir remains alive when subjected to continuous browsing. Over the shorter term, delayed growth recovery following severe browsing in an unsuppressed understory may also contribute to sustainability in Isle Royale's plant-herbivore system.",Plant-specific response to herbivory: Simulated browsing of suppressed balsam fir on Isle Royale,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+744492,"Digital soil mapping (DSM) techniques combined with space-for-time substitution (SFTS) processes were used to map and examine soil organic carbon (SOC) changes caused by projected climate change over New South Wales, Australia until similar to 2070. Twelve projections were derived from four global climate models downscaled with three regional climate models. A marked variation in the direction and magnitude of SOC change was demonstrated with the different projections. Mean state-wide predictions (0-30 cm depth) ranged between 2.9 Mg ha(-1) gain and 8.7 Mg ha(-1) SOC loss. Greater consistency among climate change projections is required before we can confidently predict SOC changes. By using averaged results from the 12 projections, broad trends were revealed for the change in SOC over two intervals (0-30 and 30-100 cm). A mean loss rate of 2.0 Mg ha(-1) for the upper interval was demonstrated and a total loss of 737 Tg of CO2 equivalent for the entire depth to 100 cm but the 95% confidence interval was wide. Although changes are primarily controlled by the balance between changing temperatures and rainfall, the extent of change also depends on the environmental regime, with differing changes demonstrated over 36 current climate-parent material-land use combinations (e.g., projected mean SOC decline is <1 Mg ha(-1) for dry-highly siliceous-cropping but >15 Mg ha(-1) for wet-mafic-native vegetation). This DSM-SFTS technique offers a viable alternative to dynamic simulation techniques for predicting and identifying patterns in the change of soil properties caused by climate change.","Change in Soil Organic Carbon Stocks under 12 Climate Change Projections over New South Wales, Australia",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+68003,"Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate-related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co-occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population-level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants.",From facilitation to competition: temperature-driven shift in dominant plant interactions affects population dynamics in seminatural grasslands,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1476924,"The annual cycle and variabilities of the spring river runoff in East China (EC) at the continental scale and their relationship with precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated. Monthly mean data from 72 runoff stations and 160 precipitation stations in EC, covering a period between 1951 and 1983, are used for this study. The seasonal evolution of runoff depth is generally consistent with that of the rainfall but has more regional characteristics. The dominant spatial patterns and temporal variations of spring runoff and precipitation are studied with the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOFs of spring runoff and precipitation show the intensity of runoff and precipitation in South China and are highly correlated with each other, indicating a direct response of runoff to precipitation, which is different from the summer situation. Statistic analysis suggests that the evolution of ENSO event may exert a strong influence on these two modes. The second EOFs of runoff and precipitation present a north-south oscillation in EC with Nanling Mountain as the boundary and are also well correlated. These modes are highly related to the distribution of topography and may not be influenced by the ENSO. The third EOFs exhibit east-west oscillations in EC in both runoff and precipitation. The interdecadal relationship between spring precipitation/runoff and SST is further studied by singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis. The results indicate that the first coupled mode is dominant with the associated SST anomalies as an ENSO-like interdecadal SST signal and indicates pronounced warming (SST) and wetting (runoff) trends in North China after the mid-1970x, consistent with the observed trends of SST and runoff. The second coupled mode links the subtropical SST to the main spring runoff EOF mode in South China. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society",Variabilities of the spring river runoff system in East China and their relations to precipitation and sea surface temperature,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3904128,"The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) has developed a hydrometeor classification algorithm (HCA) for use with the polarimetric upgrade of the current Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network. The algorithm was developed specifically for warm-season convection, but it will run regardless of season, and so its performance on surface precipitation type during winter events is examined here. The HCA output is compared with collocated (in time and space) observations of precipitation type provided by the public. The Peirce skill score (PSS) shows that the NSSL HCA applied to winter surface precipitation displays little skill, with a PSS of only 0.115. Further analysis indicates that HCA failures are strongly linked to the inability of HCA to accommodate refreezing below the first freezing level and to errors in the melting-level detection algorithm. Entrants in the 2009 American Meteorological Society second annual artificial intelligence competition developed classification methods that yield a PSS of 0.35 using a subset of available radar data merged with limited environmental data. Thus, when polarimetric radar data and environmental data are appropriately combined, more information about winter surface precipitation type is available than from either data source alone. © 2011 American Meteorological Society.",The NSSL hydrometeor classification algorithm in winter surface precipitation: evaluation and future development,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+783170,"To date, few attempts have been made to assess the influence of climate change on forest ecosystems and on the relationship between tree growth and climate in humid areas of low latitudes. In this paper, we studied the response of tree growth and forest ecosystem to climate change by using Fokienia hodginsii tree-ring cores from the northern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, southwest of China. Tree growth correlates the highest (r = -0.64, p < 0.01) with mean temperature (July-September), but the coefficients were changing with time as revealed by a moving correlation analysis. Tree growth is significantly (p < 0.05) and positively correlated with January-April mean temperature from AD 1961-1987, while correlations with precipitation are insignificant. In contrast, from 1988 to 2014, tree growth correlated negatively with mean temperature of previous summer and positively with precipitation of previous August-September. This indicated that the limiting factors for tree growth have changed under different climate conditions. The meteorological data suggested that from 1961 to 1987 it was cold and wet in the study area and radial growth is limited by winter and spring temperatures. This restriction is weaker if the climate is appropriate in general. However, from 1988 to 2014, the combined effects of recent warming and decreasing precipitation have led to an increasing response of tree-ring width to drought. In addition, a large proportion of mature F. hodginsii mortality occurred from 2007 to 2013, which corresponds with a drastic reduction of radial growth (narrowest in recent 100 years). The recent drought, induced by decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, may have passed the threshold which F. hodginsii could tolerate, causing tree growth reduction, tree growth-climate relationship change, as well as catastrophic tree mortality. All these changes may lead to further responses of the local ecosystem to climate change which should be highly regarded.",Tree growth response of Fokienia hodginsii to recent climate warming and drought in southwest China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+510386,"There is strong correlative evidence that human-induced climate warming is contributing to changes in the timing of natural events. Firm attribution, however, requires cause-and-effect links between observed climate change and altered phenology, together with statistical confidence that observed regional climate change is anthropogenic. We provide evidence for phenological shifts in the butterfly Heteronympha merope in response to regional warming in the southeast Australian city of Melbourne. The mean emergence date for H. merope has shifted -1.5 days per decade over a 65-year period with a concurrent increase in local air temperatures of approximately 0.168 degrees C per decade. We used a physiologically based model of climatic influences on development, together with statistical analyses of climate data and global climate model projections, to attribute the response of H. merope to anthropogenic warming. Such mechanistic analyses of phenological responses to climate improve our ability to forecast future climate change impacts on biodiversity.",Early emergence in a butterfly causally linked to anthropogenic warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3297472,"Seasonal multiplication and overwinter survival are density-dependent in Heterodera glycines. At low to moderate population densities, the nematode is capable of large population increases on susceptible soybean cultivars and high rates of oversummer or overwinter survival in the absence of a host. To improve estimates of H. glycines multiplication and survival rates, egg densities were monitored for 12 cropping sequences across 10 years. Log-linear regression analysis was used to describe and compare density-dependent relationships. Growing-season change in H. glycines egg densities was density-dependent for all crops (susceptible soybean, resistant soybean, and nonhost), with slope estimates for the density-dependent relationship greater for susceptible soybean compared with a non-host crop. Overwinter population change also was density-dependent, with similar declines in survival rates observed for all crops as population densities increased. Survival was greater following susceptible soybean compared with resistant soybean, with an intermediate rate of survival associated with non-host crops. Survival estimates greater than 100% frequently were obtained at low population densities, despite attempts to account for sampling error. Rates of growing-season multiplication and survival, when standardized for population density, declined with year of the study. Standardized overwinter survival rates were inversely related to average daily minimum temperature and monthly snow cover.",Density-dependent multiplication and survival rates in Heterodera glycines,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1509052,"A study of the California Sierra Nevada snowpack has been conducted using snow station observations and reanalysis surface temperature data. Monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements were combined from two datasets to provide sufficient data from 1930 to 2008. The monthly snapshots are used to calculate peak snow mass timing for each snow season. Since 1930, there has been an overall trend toward earlier snow mass peak timing by 0.6 days per decade. The trend toward earlier timing also occurs at nearly all individual stations. Even stations showing an increase in 1 April SWE exhibit the trend toward earlier timing, indicating that enhanced melting is occurring at nearly all stations. Analysis of individual years and stations reveals that warm daily maximum temperatures averaged over March and April are associated with earlier snow mass peak timing for all spatial and temporal scales included in the dataset. The influence is particularly pronounced for low accumulation years indicating the potential importance of albedo feedback for the melting of shallow snow. The robustness of the early spring temperature influence on peak timing suggests the trend toward earlier peak timing is attributable to the simultaneous warming trend (0.1 degrees C decade(-1) since 1930, with an acceleration in warming in later time periods). Given future scenarios of warming in California, one can expect acceleration in the trend toward earlier peak timing; this will reduce the warm season storage capacity of the California snowpack.",Observed Climate-Snowpack Relationships in California and their Implications for the Future,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+3296989,"Inferring species' responses to climate change in the absence of long-term time series data is a challenge, but can be achieved by substituting space for time. For example, thermal elevational gradients represent suitable proxies to study phenological responses to warming. We used butterfly data from two Mediterranean mountain areas to test whether mean dates of appearance of communities and individual species show a delay with increasing altitude, and an accompanying shortening in the duration of flight periods. We found a 14-day delay in the mean date of appearance per kilometer increase in altitude for butterfly communities overall, and an average 23-day shift for 26 selected species, alongside average summer temperature lapse rates of 3 degrees C per km. At higher elevations, there was a shortening of the flight period for the community of 3 days/km, with an 8.8-day average decline per km for individual species. Rates of phenological delay differed significantly between the two mountain ranges, although this did not seem to result from the respective temperature lapse rates. These results suggest that climate warming could lead to advanced and lengthened flight periods for Mediterranean mountain butterfly communities. However, although multivoltine species showed the expected response of delayed and shortened flight periods at higher elevations, univoltine species showed more pronounced delays in terms of species appearance. Hence, while projections of overall community responses to climate change may benefit from space-for-time substitutions, understanding species-specific responses to local features of habitat and climate may be needed to accurately predict the effects of climate change on phenology.",Butterfly phenology in Mediterranean mountains using space-for-time substitution,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1919377,"Santiago (33.5 degrees S, 70.5 degrees W), the capital of Chile, is frequently affected by extreme air pollution events during wintertime deteriorating air quality (AQ) and thus affecting the health of its population. Intense residential heating and on-road transport emissions combined with poor circulation and vertical mixing are the main factors responsible for these events. A modelling system composed of a chemistry-transport model (CHIMERE) and a meteorological model (WRF) was implemented to assess the AQ impacts of residential and transportation sources in the Santiago basin. A two-week period of July 2015 with various days with poor AQ was simulated focusing on the impact on AQ with respect to fully inhalable particles (PM2.5) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Three emission scenarios, within the range of targeted reductions of the decontamination plan of Santiago, were tested; namely 50% reduction of residential emission, 50% reduction of transport emissions and the combination of both. An additional scenario decreasing transport emissions in 10% was carried out to examine whether a linear dependence of surface concentrations on changes in emissions exists. The system was validated against surface and vertically resolved meteorological measurements. The model reproduces the daily surface concentration variability from the AQ monitoring network of Santiago. However, the model not fully captures the emissions variations inferred from the observations which may be due to missing sources such as resuspension of dust. Results show that, during the period studied, although both residential and transportation sources contribute to observed AQ levels in Santiago, reducing transport emissions is more effective in terms of reducing the number of days with pollution events than decreasing residential combustion. This difference in impact is largely due to the spatial distribution of the emission sources. While most of the residential combustion is emitted in the outskirts of the city, most of the transport emissions occur within the city, where most of the stations from AQ monitoring network of Santiago are located. As can be expected, the largest improvement of AQ in Santiago is achieved by the combined reduction of emissions in both sectors. Sensitivity analysis with 10% reduction in transport emissions reveals a linear behavior between emissions and concentrations for NOx and approximate linear behavior for PM2.5. The absence of secondary aerosols formation and dust resuspension in the current simulation could explain this deviation from linearity for fine particles. Nevertheless, it suggests that the results can be used for mitigation policies with emissions reductions below the 50% used in this study.",Impact of residential combustion and transport emissions on air pollution in Santiago during winter,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2331603,"Seagrass meadows, one of the world's most important and productive coastal habitats, are threatened by a range of anthropogenic actions. Burial of seagrass plants due to coastal activities is one important anthropogenic pressure leading to the decline of local populations. In our study, we assessed the response of eelgrass Zostera marina to sediment burial from physiological, morphological, and population parameters. In a full factorial field experiment, burial level (5-20 cm) and burial duration (4-16 weeks) were manipulated. Negative effects were visible even at the lowest burial level (5 cm) and shortest duration (4 weeks), with increasing effects over time and burial level. Buried seagrasses showed higher shoot mortality, delayed growth and flowering and lower carbohydrate storage. The observed effects will likely have an impact on next year's survival of buried plants. Our results have implications for the management of this important coastal plant. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Experimental assessment of critical anthropogenic sediment burial in eelgrass Zostera marina,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+472347,"Increasing atmospheric CO2 is raising sea surface temperature (SST) and increasing seawater CO2 concentrations, resulting in a lower oceanic pH (ocean acidification; OA), which is expected to reduce the accretion of coral reef ecosystems. Although sediments comprise most of the calcium carbonate (CaCO3) within coral reefs, no in situ studies have looked at the combined effects of increased SST and OA on the dissolution of coral reef CaCO3 sediments. In situ benthic chamber incubations were used to measure dissolution rates in permeable CaCO3 sands under future OA and SST scenarios in a coral reef lagoon on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (Heron Island). End of century (2100) simulations (temperature +2.7°C and pH -0.3) shifted carbonate sediments from net precipitating to net dissolving. Warming increased the rate of benthic respiration (R) by 29% per 1°C and lowered the ratio of productivity to respiration (P/R; ΔP/R = -0.23), which increased the rate of CaCO3 sediment dissolution (average net increase of 18.9 mmol CaCO3 m-2 d-1 for business as usual scenarios). This is most likely due to the influence of warming on benthic P/R which, in turn, was an important control on sediment dissolution through the respiratory production of CO2. The effect of increasing CO2 on CaCO3 sediment dissolution (average net increase of 6.5 mmol CaCO3 m-2 d-1 for business as usual scenarios) was significantly less than the effect of warming. However, the combined effect of increasing both SST and pCO2 on CaCO3 sediment dissolution was non-additive (average net increase of 5.6 mmol CaCO3 m-2 d-1) due to the different responses of the benthic community. This study highlights that benthic biogeochemical processes, such as metabolism and associated CaCO3 sediment dissolution respond rapidly to changes in SST and OA, and that the response to multiple environmental changes are not necessarily additive. © 2016 Trnovsky, Stoltenberg, Cyronak and Eyre.",Antagonistic effects of ocean acidification and rising sea surface temperature on the dissolution of coral reef carbonate sediments,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+380648,"Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events that could soon have substantial impacts on electrical grids. Modern society's heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our susceptibility to such a severe space-weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of the global economy, we simulate the economic impact of strong CMEs for three different planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts within the countries directly affected, as well as the post-disaster economic shock in partner economies linked by international trade. For a 1989 Quebec-like event, the global economic impacts would range from USD 2.4 to 3.4 trillion over a year. Of this total economic shock, about 50% would be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.9 to 5.6 %. The global economic damage is of the same order as wars, extreme financial crisis and estimated for future climate change.",How severe space weather can disrupt global supply chains,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+29573,"We used a coupled climate-chemistry model to quantify the impacts of aerosols on snow cover north of 30 degrees N both for the present-day and for the middle of the 21st century. Black carbon (BC) deposition over continents induces a reduction in the mean number of days with snow at the surface (MNDWS) that ranges from 0 to 10 days over large areas of Eurasia and Northern America for the present-day relative to the pre-industrial period. This is mainly due to BC deposition during the spring, a period of the year when the remaining of snow accumulated during the winter is exposed to both strong solar radiation and a large amount of aerosol deposition induced themselves by a high level of transport of particles from polluted areas. North of 30 degrees N, this deposition flux represents 222 Gg BC month(-1) on average from April to June in our simulation. A large reduction in BC emissions is expected in the future in all of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. In particular, considering the RCP8.5 in our simulation leads to a decrease in the spring BC deposition down to 110 Gg month-1 in the 2050s. However, despite the reduction of the aerosol impact on snow, the MNDWS is strongly reduced by 2050, with a decrease ranging from 10 to 100 days from present-day values over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This reduction is essentially due to temperature increase, which is quite strong in the RCP8.5 scenario in the absence of climate mitigation policies. Moreover, the projected sea-ice retreat in the next decades will open new routes for shipping in the Arctic. However, a large increase in shipping emissions in the Arctic by the mid-21st century does not lead to significant changes of BC deposition over snow-covered areas in our simulation. Therefore, the MNDWS is clearly not affected through snow darkening effects associated with these Arctic ship emissions. In an experiment without nudging toward atmospheric reanalyses, we simulated however some changes of the MNDWS considering such aerosol ship emissions. These changes are generally not statistically significant in boreal continents, except in Quebec and in the West Siberian plains, where they range between -5 and -10 days. They are induced both by radiative forcings of the aerosols when they are in the snow and in the atmosphere, and by all the atmospheric feedbacks. These experiments do not take into account the feedbacks induced by the interactions between ocean and atmosphere as they were conducted with prescribed sea surface temperatures. Climate change by the mid-21st century could also cause biomass burning activity (forest fires) to become more intense and occur earlier in the season. In an idealised scenario in which forest fires are 50% stronger and occur 2 weeks earlier and later than at present, we simulated an increase in spring BC deposition of 21 Gg BC month(-1) over continents located north of 30 degrees N. This BC deposition does not impact directly the snow cover through snow darkening effects. However, in an experiment considering all the aerosol forcings and atmospheric feedbacks, except those induced by the ocean-atmosphere interactions, enhanced fire activity induces a significant decrease of the MNDWS reaching a dozen of days in Quebec and in Eastern Siberia.",Boreal and temperate snow cover variations induced by black carbon emissions in the middle of the 21st century,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3533202,"Past severe winters experienced in the United States, combined with escalated fuel prices and other unattractive conditions such as higher taxes, inflation, crime, urban decay, etc., have forced numerous American retirees south to more climatically favorable and economically amenable areas. Many have ventured into foreign lands in search of these amenities and some have established retirement residency in the nations south of our international border. Among these adventurous retiree migrants are significant numbers of American military retirees who have histories of extensive foreign travel and residence during their military careers. This book is about that migrant group and its settlement in Central America and parts of Mexico. It examines the places where these migrants have settled, determines why they have chosen those specific places for retirement, describes their characteristics, explains how the migration takes place, and discusses its consequences. Also, it provides a brief history of United States military personnel in foreign areas, with emphasis on the relationship between their frequent relocation and their propensity to migrate after retirement, and describes the world distribution of the 1.2 million members that comprise the military retiree population. © 1980 by Schenkman Publishing Company, Inc. All rights reserved.",Military retirees,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+123344,"Night-time ventilation is often seen as a promising passive cooling concept. However, as it requires a sufficiently high temperature difference between ambient air and the building structure, this technique is highly sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. In order to quantify the impact of climate warming on the night-time ventilative cooling potential in Europe, eight representative locations across a latitudinal transect were considered. Based on a degree-hours method, site-specific regression models were developed to predict the climatic cooling potential (CCP) from minimum daily air temperature (T-min). CCP was computed for present conditions (1961-90) using measured T-min data from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) database. Possible time-dependent changes in CCP were assessed for 1990-2100, with particular emphasis on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 'A2' and 'B2' scenarios for future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Time-dependent, site-specific Tmin scenarios were constructed from 30 Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data sets, as obtained from the European PRUDENCE project. Under both emissions scenarios and across all locations and seasons, CCP was found to decrease substantially by the end of the 21st century. For the six Central and Northern European locations (47N) CCP was found to decrease in summer (June-August) by 20-50%. For the two Southern European locations (Madrid and Athens), future CCP was found to become negligible during the summer and to decrease by 20-55% during the spring and the autumn. The study clearly shows that night-time cooling potential will cease to be sufficient to ensure thermal comfort in many Southern and Central European buildings. In Central and Northern Europe, a significant passive cooling potential is likely to remain, at least for the next few decades. Upper and lower bound estimates for future CCP were found to diverge strongly in the course of the 21st century, suggesting the need for flexible building design and for risk assessments that account for a wide range of emissions scenarios and uncertainty in climate model results.",Impact of climate warming on passive night cooling potential,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+223121,"BACKGROUND: Climate change is anticipated to affect human health by changing the distribution of known risk factors. Heat waves have had debilitating effects on human mortality, and global climate models predict an increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves. The extent to which climate change will harm human health through changes in the distribution of heat waves and the sources of uncertainty in estimating these effects have not been studied extensively. OBJECTIVES: We estimated the future excess mortality attributable to heat waves under global climate change for a major U.S. city. METHODS: We used a database comprising daily data from 1987 through 2005 on mortality from all nonaccidental causes, ambient levels of particulate matter and ozone, temperature, and dew point temperature for the city of Chicago, Illinois. We estimated the associations between heat waves and mortality in Chicago using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Under three different climate change scenarios for 2081-2100 and in the absence of adaptation, the city of Chicago could experience between 166 and 2,217 excess deaths per year attributable to heat waves, based on estimates from seven global climate models. We noted considerable variability in the projections of annual heat wave mortality; the largest source of variation was the choice of climate model. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of future heat waves on human health will likely be profound, and significant gains can be expected by lowering future carbon dioxide emissions.",Toward a Quantitative Estimate of Future Heat Wave Mortality under Global Climate Change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+316658,"The interaction of ground water with prairie wetlands in the Cottonwood Lake area has been the focus of research by the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service since 1977. During this time, climatic conditions at the site ranged from near the driest to near the wettest of he century. Water levels in wetlands and in water-table wells throughout the study area responded to these changing climate conditions in a variety of ways. The topographically highest wetlands recharged ground water whenever they received water from precipitation. The wetland of principal interest, Wetland P1, which is at an intermediate altitude, received ground-water discharge much of the time, but it also had transpiration-induced seepage from it along parts of its perimeter during all bur the wettest year. The large;fluctuations of the water table in response to recharge and transpiration reflect the ease with which water moves vertically through the fractured till. Lateral movement of ground water is much slower; pore-water velocities are generally less than 3 m yr(-1). The water supply to the wetlands is largely from precipitation during fall, winter, and spring. During these periods, precipitation either falls directly on the wetland, or precipitation that falls on the upland runs over frozen soils or saturated soils into the wetland. The average ratio of stage rise to total overwinter precipitation was 2.59 for the 12-year study period. After plants leaf out, precipitation generally results in much lower rises of the wetland water level. The average ratio of stage rise to over-summer precipitation was less than 1.0.","THE INTERACTION OF GROUND-WATER WITH PRAIRIE POTHOLE WETLANDS IN THE COTTONWOOD LAKE AREA, EAST-CENTRAL NORTH-DAKOTA, 1979-1990",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2352219,"The article presents a study of factors that determine the career choice of indigenous children Evenks, high school students in secondary general schools located in extreme climatic and llandaschety zones on the territory of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). The purpose of the article is to identify the main factors affecting the choice of careers for children - representatives of indigenous small peoples of the North, Siberia and the Far East. The study was conducted on the basis of field work on the territory of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Field research completed on the territory of Arctic Region and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) resulted in analysis of the factors defining the career choices made by the Evenk indigenous peoples' children, in particular senior school students' completing secondary general education in their respective territories located in extreme climatic and landscape zones. These children's parents lead a traditional life with a traditional economy (hunting, migratory reindeer breeding, and fishing). The teachers' school stuff also resides in the Arctic Region territories under extreme conditions, thus, have a huge impact on the formation of images of success with senior school students. The 2016 field research resulted in approbation of methodology aimed at revealing the correlation between the senior students' career choice, their parents' opinions, and teachers' opinions. The methodology application will allow identification of either the presence or absence of actual contradictions in actual parents' or teachers' impact on the career choices made by senior school students. The completed complex research proved there to be an increase in the territorial and economic educational differentiation of school students observed in post-Soviet Russia. The conditions for obtaining secondary education and the routine experience of school students from the Arctic indigenous peoples is insufficient for guarantying their free career choice and its compliance to the students' own ideas about what a successful life contains. Political management established within the Arctic Region territories is subject to education inequality and must take measures to liquidate this.",VOCATIONAL CHOICES MADE BY CHILDREN OF INDIGENOUS PEOPLES OF THE NORTH IN REGARD TO COMPLETING SECONDARY EDUCATION IN SENIOR SCHOOLS OF THE REPUBLIC OF SAKHA (YAKUTIA),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+552437,"The Arctic climate change is analyzed in an ensemble of future projection simulations performed with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth2.3. EC-Earth simulates the twentieth century Arctic climate relatively well but the Arctic is about 2 K too cold and the sea ice thickness and extent are overestimated. In the twenty-first century, the results show a continuation and strengthening of the Arctic trends observed over the recent decades, which leads to a dramatically changed Arctic climate, especially in the high emission scenario RCP8.5. The annually averaged Arctic mean near-surface temperature increases by 12 K in RCP8.5, with largest warming in the Barents Sea region. The warming is most pronounced in winter and autumn and in the lower atmosphere. The Arctic winter temperature inversion is reduced in all scenarios and disappears in RCP8.5. The Arctic becomes ice free in September in all RCP8.5 simulations after a rapid reduction event without recovery around year 2060. Taking into account the overestimation of ice in the twentieth century, our model results indicate a likely ice-free Arctic in September around 2040. Sea ice reductions are most pronounced in the Barents Sea in all RCPs, which lead to the most dramatic changes in this region. Here, surface heat fluxes are strongly enhanced and the cloudiness is substantially decreased. The meridional heat flux into the Arctic is reduced in the atmosphere but increases in the ocean. This oceanic increase is dominated by an enhanced heat flux into the Barents Sea, which strongly contributes to the large sea ice reduction and surface-air warming in this region. Increased precipitation and river runoff lead to more freshwater input into the Arctic Ocean. However, most of the additional freshwater is stored in the Arctic Ocean while the total Arctic freshwater export only slightly increases.",Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+785104,"Recent evidence suggests that there may be an interaction between air pollution and heat on mortality, which is pertinent in the context of global climate change. We sought to examine this interaction in Hefei, a hot and polluted Chinese city. We conducted time-series analyses using daily mortality, air pollutant concentration (including particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <10 mu m (PM10), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)), and temperature data from 2008 to 2014. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models with natural cubic splines and examined the interactive effects using temperature-stratified models. Subgroup analyses were conducted by age, gender, and educational levels. We observed consistently stronger associations between air pollutants and mortality at high temperatures than at medium temperatures. These differences were statistically significant for the associations between PM10 and non-accidentalmortality and between all pollutants studied and respiratory mortality. Mean percentage increases in non-accidental mortality per 10 mu g/m(3) at high temperatures were 2.40% (95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 4.20) for PM10, 7.77% (0.60 to 15.00) for SO2, and 6.83% (-1.37 to 15.08) for NO2. The estimates for PM10 were 3.40% (0.96 to 5.90) in females and 4.21% (1.44 to 7.05) in the illiterate, marking them as more vulnerable. No clear trend was identified by age. We observed an interaction between air pollutants and high temperature on mortality in Hefei, which was stronger in females and the illiterate. This may be due to differences in behaviours affecting personal exposure to high temperatures and has potential policy implications. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","The interactive effects between high temperature and air pollution on mortality: A time-series analysis in Hefei, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1452033,"The southern Brazilian coast is a sandy barrier adorned by subtle shoreline perturbations widespread in a rhythmical pattern. Previous works indicated that short- and long-term shoreline changes are not alongshore uniform. They are based on coastline position monitoring, geomorphological evidences, historical cartographic documents, and aerial photography. Moreover, these studies associated the main observed erosional sites with high rates of sediment drift and energy focusing due to wave refraction. Nevertheless, the role of the highly oblique incident waves in driving shoreline changes was not considered. A recently derived sediment diffusion equation showed the possibility of coastal instability induced by incident waves with high obliqueness, as opposed to the traditional approach. Therefore, this paper applied these concepts to wave climate and performed coastal instability analysis to explain shoreline changes at an undulating littoral. Calculations showed wave climate yielding a negative instability index (-0.13) when using a 42-month-long time series of wave parameters obtained from a forecasting numerical model. Also, the calculated direction asymmetry on wave climate revealed a net littoral drift. Consequently, the sites between troughs and updrift flanks of shoreline undulations are expected to exhibit erosive processes. This is the case in the most conspicuous long-term erosional hot spots at the southern Brazilian coast, which was pointed out in earlier studies. Therefore, coastal instability and littoral sediment drift analysis explained the main morphodynamic processes governing shoreline changes at the study area.",Long-term erosional hot spots in the southern Brazilian coast,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1280085,"Temporary rivers are dynamic and complex ecosystems that are widespread in arid and semi-arid regions, such as the Mediterranean. Biotic communities adapted in their intermittent nature could withstand recurrent drought events. However, anthropogenic disturbances in the form of water stress and chemical pollution challenge biota with unpredictable outcomes, especially in view of climate change. In this study we assess the response of the biotic community of a temporary river to environmental stressors, focusing on water stress and pollution. Towards this aim, several metrics of four biotic groups (diatoms, macrophytes, macroinvertebrates and fish) were applied. All biotic groups responded to a pollution gradient mainly driven by land use, distinct functional groups of all biota responded to water stress (a response related to the rheophilic nature of the species and their resistance to shear stress), while the combined effects of water stress and pollution were apparent in fish. Biotic groups presented a differential temporal response towater stress, where diatom temporal assemblage patterns were explained by water stress variables of short-time response (15 days), while the responses of the other biota were associated to longer time periods. There were two time periods of fish response, a short (15 days) and a long-time response (60-75 days). When considering management decisions, our results indicate that, given the known response of river biota to pollution, biomonitoring of temporary rivers should also involve metrics that can be utilized as early warnings of water stress. (c) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Assessing the ecological effects of water stress and pollution in a temporary river - Implications for water management,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3932892,"Nestlings of aerial insectivores adjust their energetics, behavior, and development of internal organs in response to food shortages and subsequent improvements in feeding conditions. Here, we present results of laboratory refeeding of Bank Swallow (Riparia riparia) nestlings, which were undernourished between 4 and 7 days of age. During a subsequent three-day-long refeeding, their body mass did not catch up with that of individuals continuously fed ad libitum. However, refed young managed to compensate for delayed growth of pectoral muscles, small intestines, and fully restored fat reserves. Their resting metabolic rates and body temperatures increased to values similar to those of nestlings fed ad libitum. In contrast, digestive activity of their guts (quantified as carrier-mediated intestinal brush-border uptake rate of L-proline) was reduced, as compared with the period of undernutrition. Likewise, high locomotor activity observed during food shortage was significantly reduced upon refeeding. Furthermore, differences in body mass between nest mates, which had earlier modulated both locomotor activity and physiological responses to food shortage, had no effect on mobility and physiology of refed nestlings. Our results indicate that even a short, three-day period of refeeding triggered conspicuous acceleration of growth and development of vital internal organs in previously undernourished nestlings. However, that was not accompanied by significant compensatory whole-body growth (defined as a period of above-normal rapid growth, relative to age).","Effect of refeeding on growth, development, and behavior of undernourished bank swallow (Riparia riparia) nestlings",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+95545,"This paper(1) evaluates the reliability of modeling in the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) where global circulation (or climate) simulations were used to forecast future extremes of temperatures, rainfall and soil moisture. The DECR provided the Australian government with an assessment of the likely future change in the extent and frequency of drought resulting from anthropogenic global warming. Three specific and different statistical techniques show that the simulation of the occurrence of extreme high temperatures last century was adequate, but the simulation of the occurrence of extreme low rainfall was unacceptably poor. In particular, the simulations indicate that the measure of hydrological drought increased significantly last century, while the observations indicate a significant decrease. The main conclusion and purpose of the paper is to provide a case study showing the need for more rigorous and explicit validation of climate models if they are to advise government policy.",CRITIQUE OF DROUGHT MODELS IN THE AUSTRALIAN DROUGHT EXCEPTIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES REPORT (DECR),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+169630,"Characteristics of litter decomposition and carbon and nitrogen release were comparatively studied under meadow, typical and desert steppe ecosystems. The results showed that litter under meadow ecosystem had the highest decomposition rate constant of biomass, percentage of carbon, nitrogen and cellulose loss than that under typical and desert steppe ecosystems. Analysis of variance showed that there were obvious significant differences in decomposition rate constant of biomass, percentage of carbon, nitrogen and cellulose loss of litter among three grassland ecosystems. Stepwise regression analysis showed that annual average relative humidity played significant or very significant impact on decomposition rate constant of biomass, percentage of cellulose, carbon, nitrogen loss under three grassland ecosystems. Therefore, litter decomposition and nitrogen release was mainly influenced by precipitation under different grassland ecosystems. © (2013) Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland.",Climate effect on characteristics of litter decomposition and nitrogen release under three grassland ecosystems,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2307242,"There is substantial interest in how mortality rates affect animal populations, but mechanisms explaining when and under what circumstances particular causes of death incur demographic responses are far from clear. In theory, small or expanding populations should experience additive mortality from anthropogenic causes of death, but whether such effects are homogenous across a population or expressed only in certain high-risk individuals is open for debate. We used competing risks models to analyze mortality patterns among radio-collared wolves (Canis lupus, n = 711) from three populations in northwestern United States (1982-2004), and evaluated the degree to which anthropogenic mortality was additive vs. compensatory to natural demographic processes. Almost 80% (n = 320) of wolves dying of known fates were killed by anthropogenic causes (legal control, illegal killing, harvest in Canada, vehicle collision), and additive effects of anthropogenic mortality were most pronounced in northwestern Montana where wolf exposure to humans and livestock was high compared to either the Greater Yellowstone Area or central Idaho, where anthropogenic risk was lower. In contrast, risk from natural hazards was lower in northwestern Montana than in the other areas, implying some degree of compensatory mortality from anthropogenic risk. Animals recruited to the study following human-wolf conflict had markedly higher anthropogenic risk than those recruited for standard monitoring purposes, and juvenile wolves as well as dispersers, succumbed to higher anthropogenic risk. Multivariate models revealed that increasing wolf population density promoted higher anthropogenic risk and reduced natural risk, indicating that partially-compensatory effects of anthropogenic mortality actually became increasingly additive with population density. The observed compensatory mortality and hazard heterogeneity in our study implies that demographic responses to mortality risk may be complex and more subtle than previously thought; the density-dependent effect of anthropogenic mortality portends a stabilizing influence of humans on recovering wolf populations. We conclude that future assessment of the role of anthropogenic mortality should include individual-based hazard estimation as a complement to traditional population-level approaches. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Death from anthropogenic causes is partially compensatory in recovering wolf populations,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1431475,"Generation of dense waters in the Adriatic Sea during an extreme cooling event in the winter of 2012, including its preconditioning and spreading phases, have been investigated using the one-way coupled ROMS and the ALADIN/HR modeling system. Both climatological and real river fluxes are used in the simulations. Aside from the convenient dense water formation areas located at the northernmost Adriatic shelf, we found that a similar amount of dense water, with slightly lower density, was formed in the eastern and deeper Adriatic coastal area, which was subjected to extreme heat losses (up to 2000 W/m2) during peak cooling periods. This part of the Adriatic has been known for extreme cooling during wintertime bora outbreaks; nevertheless, no ocean model study has previously reproduced dense water formation in this area. The most likely reason for that was an overestimate of river discharges introduced to ocean models. From newly available data, we estimated that the contribution of eastern Adriatic rivers between the Neretva River and Rijeka Bay is more than six times lower than what has been previously documented. Transport of dense water toward the middle Adriatic had a peak value of about 0.6 Sv, while the speed of initial bottom density current surpassed 40-50 cm/s, which is several times faster than past events. Different pathways of the dense water toward the middle and south Adriatic depressions have also been documented. The contribution of the eastern coastal Adriatic area to the overall north Adriatic dense water formation has been quantified and discussed for average and low freshwater load conditions, indicating that this part of the Adriatic is a common place for dense water generation.",Extreme cooling and dense water formation estimates in open and coastal regions of the Adriatic Sea during the winter of 2012,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+598158,"Temperature and rainfall changes are both significant components of climate change. This study characterizes the effects of climate change on water resources in the Buyuk Menderes river basin in western Turkey, based on hydrology, temperature, and rainfall data from the past 45 years (1963-2007). When analyzed with the Mann-Whitney test, the temperature and precipitation time series exhibited obvious step changes with a 5% level of significance. Both the parametric t-test and nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistical test results showed an increasing trend of the temperature. Over the past 45 years, the temperature increased just about 1 C. The long-term trend of annual precipitation demonstrated a decreasing trend; however, it was not found to be statistically significant. The spatial distribution of the precipitation pattern showed that the precipitation amount had an increasing trend in the 1970s, especially in the Aydin region, with a value of 5.8%. The precipitation amount started to decrease in the 1980s, especially in the Afyon and Usak regions, with a value of -6.8%. Serious water scarcity began to appear in the 1990s, especially in the Aydin region, with a value of -14.4%. The streamflow of the Cine and Akcay rivers showed a decreasing trend, especially during the period of 1985-1998. The decreasing trend of the streamflow in the tributaries had a strong correlation with changes in temperature and precipitation. An increasing trend in temperature and decreasing trends in precipitation and streamflow in the Bayak Menderes river basin may be interpreted as climate change.","Effects of climate change on water resources of the Buyuk Menderes river basin, western Turkey",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+397916,"Ecosystems in biogeographical transition zones, or ecotones, tend to be highly sensitive to climate and can provide early indications of future change. To evaluate recent climatic changes and their impacts in a boreal-temperate ecotone in eastern North America, we analyzed ice phenology records (1975-2007) for five lakes in the Adirondack Mountains of northern New York State. We observed rapidly decreasing trends of up to 21 days less ice cover, mostly due to later freeze-up and partially due to earlier break-up. To evaluate the local drivers of these lake ice changes, we modeled ice phenology based on local climate data, derived climatic predictors from the models, and evaluated trends in those predictors to determine which were responsible for observed changes in lake ice. November and December temperature and snow depth consistently predicted ice-in, and recent trends of warming and decreasing snow during these months were consistent with later ice formation. March and April temperature and snow depth consistently predicted ice-out, but the absence of trends in snow depth during these months, despite concurrent warming, resulted in much weaker trends for ice-out. Recent rates of warming in the Adirondacks are among the highest regionally, although with a different seasonality of changes (early winter > late winter) that is consistent with other lake ice records in the surrounding area. Projected future declines in snow cover could create positive feedbacks and accelerate current rates of ice loss due to warming. Climate sensitivity was greatest for the larger lakes in our study, including Wolf Lake, considered one of the most ecologically intact 'wilderness lakes' in eastern North America. Our study provides further evidence of climate sensitivity of the boreal-temperate ecotone of eastern North America and points to emergent conservation challenges posed by climate change in legally protected yet vulnerable landscapes like the Adirondack Park.",Local climatic drivers of changes in phenology at a boreal-temperate ecotone in eastern North America,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+666445,"This paper presents a comprehensive review of a fundamental and challenging issue in hydrology: the regionalization of streamflow and its advances over the last two decades, specifically 1990-2011. This includes a discussion of developments in continuous streamflow regionalization, model parameter optimization methods, the application of uncertainty analysis in regionalization procedures, limitations and challenges, and future research directions. Here, regionalization refers to a process of transferring hydrological information from gauged to ungauged or poorly gauged basins to estimate the streamflow. Huge efforts have been devoted to regionalization of flood peaks, low flow, and flow duration curves (FDCs) in the literature, while continuous streamflow regionalization is helpful in deriving each of these variables. Continuous streamflow regionalization can be conducted through rainfall-runoff models or hydrologic model-independent methods. In the former case, model parameters are used as instruments to transfer hydrological information from gauged to ungauged basins, whereas the latter case transfers streamflow directly through data-driven methods. According to the reviewed regionalization studies, streamflow regionalization has been done mostly through hydrologic models, whereas the focus of these studies is on identifying the best methods to transfer the model parameters. Conceptual rainfall-runoff models, such as Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) and Identification of Unit Hydrographs and Component Flows from Rainfall, Evaporation and Streamflow Data (IHACRES) have emerged as the most frequently used models in this category. Physiographic attributes (e.g.,catchment area, elevation, and slope of basins or channels) and meteorological information (e.g.,daily time series of rainfall and temperature) are the most commonly used in the regionalization studies. Diversity in catchment physical attributes and climatic variability produces different performances for each regionalization method's application in various regions. However, overall, spatial proximity and physical similarity have shown satisfactory performance in arid to warm temperate climate (e.g.,Australia) and regression-based methods have been preferred in warm temperate regions (e.g.,most European countries). Similarly, in cold and snowy regions (e.g.,Canada) spatial proximity and physical similarity approaches seemed to be good options among the hydrologic model-dependent methods. Hydrologic model-independent methods have been applied only in few cases, and the results have indicated that in warm temperate regions linear and nonlinear regression methods perform well. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.",Streamflow Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Review of Regionalization Methods,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+346326,"Global climate change is impacting and will continue to impact on marine and estuarine fish and fisheries. Data trends show climate change effects ranging from fish growth, digestion physiology and performance in marine and freshwater ecosystems. The present study was designed to develop a concept for a cause and effect understanding with respect to climate-induced temperature and salinity changes and to explain ecological findings based on physiological processes. The concept is based on a wide comparison of fish species. The preliminary conclusion can be drawn that warming will cause a shift of distribution limits for fish species with a change in growth performance, gastric evacuation performance and physiology, or even extinction of the species in the world. In association with the elevated seawater temperature growth performance will also be changed with water quality parameters, for example, salinity. Our interpretations of evidence include many uncertainties about the future of affected fish species. Therefore, it is essential to conduct research on the physiology and ecology of marine, estuarine and freshwater fishes, particularly in the tropics where comparatively little research has been conducted and where temperature fluctuation is comparatively lower. As a broader and deeper information base accumulates, researchers will be able to make more accurate predictions and forge relevant solutions.","Impact of global climate change on fish growth, digestion and physiological status: developing a hypothesis for cause and effect relationships",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+465191,"Large-scale biogeographical changes in the biodiversity of a key zooplankton group (calanoid copepods) were detected in the north-eastern part of the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas over the period 1960-1999. These findings provided key empirical evidence for climate change impacts on marine ecosystems at the regional to oceanic scale. Since 1999, global temperatures have continued to rise in the region. Here, we extend the analysis to the period 1958-2005 using all calanoid copepod species assemblages (nine species assemblages based on an analysis including a total of 108 calanoid species or taxa) and show that this phenomenon has been reinforced in all regions. Our study reveals that the biodiversity of calanoid copepods are responding quickly to sea surface temperature (SST) rise by moving geographically northward at a rapid rate up to about 23.16 km yr(-1). Our analysis suggests that nearly half of the increase in sea temperature in the northeast Atlantic and adjacent seas is related to global temperature rises (46.35% of the total variance of temperature) while changes in both natural modes of atmospheric and oceanic circulation explain 26.45% of the total variance of temperature. Although some SST isotherms have moved northwards by an average rate of up to 21.75 km yr(-1) (e.g. the North Sea), their movement cannot fully quantify all species assemblage shifts. Furthermore, the observed rates of biogeographical movements are far greater than those observed in the terrestrial realm. Here, we discuss the processes that may explain such a discrepancy and suggest that the differences are mainly explained by the fluid nature of the pelagic domain, the life cycle of the zooplankton and the lesser anthropogenic influence (e.g. exploitation, habitat fragmentation) on these organisms. We also hypothesize that despite changes in the path and intensity of the oceanic currents that may modify quickly and greatly pelagic zooplankton species, these organisms may reflect better the current impact of climate warming on ecosystems as terrestrial organisms are likely to significantly lag the current impact of climate change.",Rapid biogeographical plankton shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+697299,"Understanding how exogenous and endogenous factors control the distribution, production and mortality of fine roots is fundamental to assessing the implications of global change, yet our knowledge of control over fine root dynamics remains rudimentary. To improve understanding of these processes, the present study developed regression relationships between environmental variables and fine root dynamics within a northern hardwood forest in New Hampshire, USA, which was experimentally manipulated with a snow removal treatment. Fine roots (< 1 mm diameter) were observed using minirhizotrons for 2 years in sugar maple and yellow birch stands and analyzed in relation to temperature, water and nutrient availability. Fine root dynamics at this site fluctuated seasonally, with growth and mortality peaking during warmer months. Monthly fine root production was strongly associated with mean monthly air temperature and neither soil moisture nor nutrient availability added additional predictive power to this relationship. This relationship exhibited a seasonal temperature hysteresis, which was altered by snow removal treatment. These results suggest that both exogenous and endogenous cues may be important in controlling fine root growth in this system. Proportional fine root mortality was directly associated with mean monthly soil temperature, and proportional fine root mortality during the over-winter interval was strongly related to whether the soil froze. The strong relationship between fine root production and air temperature reported herein contrasts with findings from some hardwood forest sites and indicates that controls on fine root dynamics vary geographically. Future research must more clearly distinguish between endogenous and exogenous control over fine root dynamics in various ecosystems.",Environmental control of fine root dynamics in a northern hardwood forest,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+125032,"Studies indicate that the mortality effects of temperature may vary by population and region, although little is known about the vulnerability of subgroups to these risks in Korea. This study examined the relationship between temperature and cause-specific mortality for Seoul, Korea, for the period 2000-7, including whether some subgroups are particularly vulnerable with respect to sex, age, education and place of death. The authors applied time-series models allowing nonlinear relationships for heat- and cold-related mortality, and generated exposure-response curves. Both high and low ambient temperatures were associated with increased risk for daily mortality. Mortality risk was 10.2% (95% confidence interval 7.43, 13.0%) higher at the 90th percentile of daily mean temperatures (25 degrees C) compared to the 50th percentile (15 degrees C). Mortality risk was 12.2% (3.69, 21.3%) comparing the 10th (-1 degrees C) and 50th percentiles of temperature. Cardiovascular deaths showed a higher risk to cold, whereas respiratory deaths showed a higher risk to heat effect, although the differences were not statistically significant. Susceptible populations were identified such as females, the elderly, those with no education, and deaths occurring outside of a hospital for heat-and cold-related total mortality. Our findings provide supportive evidence of a temperature-mortality relationship in Korea and indicate that some subpopulations are particularly vulnerable.","Vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in Seoul, Korea",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2308845,"Man-made as well as natural sources contribute to the occurrence of trace constituents in the atmosphere. A strict distinction between these source types is needed to support international agreements on emission reductions. However, the nomenclatures in existing emission inventories treat several source sectors ambiguously, such that certain emissions are considered man-made in one system and natural in the other. An investigation of the situation for Europe reveals that there are three such sources sectors that contribute significantly (more than 10%) to the total emissions of at least one pollutant: animal husbandry, forests, and possibly soils. Using qualitative parameters for distinguishing between natural and cultivated systems, it may be concluded that, at least under European conditions, both animal husbandry and soils as emission sources are controlled by humans in nearly all aspects. Forests, even if managed, as is the European practice, retain many natural characteristics. However, even for forests, emissions are certainly very different to those existing before human influence became dominant because of extensive deforestation and replanting (often of nonnative species). A ""colonization"" theory approach suggests that just such a difference between the natural situation and the conditions as caused by man are attributed to anthropogenic emissions. Still, a complete assessment of the respective contributions cannot be provided because of a lack of a ""baseline"" natural situation. Therefore the best solution, in practice, will be to formulate international agreements in terms of specific and unambiguous source sectors.",On the boundary between man-made and natural emissions: Problems in defining European ecosystems,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1415239,"Quantitative eco-anatomical analyses were carried Out on charred wood from modem olive trees (Olea europaea L.) in order to quantify influence of irrigation on wood characters and to detect irrigated olive specimens among charcoal assemblages dating back to the Middle Ages. Data have been treated by multivariate statistical analysis and tests were performed in order to discriminate olive samples according to water supply. Results have shown that it is possible, not only to discriminate between wild and cultivated olive as demonstrated previously, but also to distinguish irrigated trees from those cultivated in dry conditions. Differences are discussed in term of ecological and eco-physiological responses of wood anatomy. Finally, data thus obtained were applied to charcoal fragments from three Medieval sites (9-15th centuries AD), revealing that irrigation practises were currently employed to olive trees. Although well adapted to a dry Mediterranean climate, olive trees were irrigated aiming to increase productivity and quality of fruit and oil. This is the first ever evidence of irrigation of fruit trees based on a bio-archaeological approach. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Bio-archaeological evidence of olive tree (Olea europaea L.) irrigation during the Middle Ages in southern France and north eastern Spain,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1859232,"In recent years, the frequency of droughts that are due to climate change has increased around the world as well as in Vietnam and is accompanied by a rise in the severity of the phenomena. Understanding the characteristics of historical hydro-meteorological drought will benefit water resource managers because it will reveal the possible impacts of future climate change on drought, and subsequently, the availability of water resources. The objective of this study is to construct the past drought conditions and predict future drought scenarios for the Srepok watershed using two drought indices, i.e., standardized precipitation index (SPI) and streamflow drought index (SDI). Monthly climate data from the observational period 1980-2009 and over the projection period 2010-2099 from ensemble of four GCMs (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) for A1B and B1 emission scenarios are used to calculate the duration, severity, and extent of meteorological droughts. Besides that, runoff data from the well-calibrated SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model are used to examine the drought from a hydrological perspective. The impacts of climate change on the hydro-meteorological drought are assessed by comparing the present and the future drought. The results show that more severe droughts are predicted to increase in the future for the study area.","ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-CLIMATOLOGY DROUGHT UNDER THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: A CASE STUDY IN THE SREPOK WATERSHED, VIETNAM",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+453088,"Pollen analysis is frequently used to build climate and environmental histories. A distinct Holocene pollen series exists for Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. This study reports linear modeling and hypothesis testing of long distance dispersal pollen from radiocarbon-dated packrat middens which reveal strong relationships between pinon pine (Pinus edulis) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Ponderosa pollen dominates midden pollen assemblages during the early Holocene, while a rapid shift to a much higher proportion of pinon to ponderosa pine pollen between c. 5440 and 5102 cal. yr BP points to an aridization episode. This shift is associated with higher delta O-18 values in Southwest speleothem records relative to the preceding millennium. The period of aridization is followed by a sharp increase in El Nino/Southern Oscillation events that would have caused highly variable precipitation and lasted until c. 4200 cal. yr BP. Bayesian change-point analysis suggests that this aridization episode led to stable ecotonal boundaries for at least 3000 years. The pinon/ponderosa transition may have been caused by punctuated multiyear droughts, analogous to those in the 20th century. The earliest documented instance of Zea mays cultivation on the Colorado Plateau is around c. 3940 C-14 yr BP (c. 4364 cal. yr BP) (Hall SA (2010) Early maize pollen from Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, USA. Palynology 34(1): 125-137) in Chaco Canyon. The introduction of this labor-intensive cultigen from Mesoamerica may have been facilitated by changes in the regional ecosystems, specifically by an increase in pinon trees, that promoted increasing human territoriality. Linear modeling and hypothesis testing can complement traditional palynological techniques by adding greater resolution in vegetation patterning to climate/environmental histories.","The 5.1 ka aridization event, expansion of pinon-juniper woodlands, and the introduction of maize (Zea mays) in the American Southwest",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1627734,"Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16%) are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.",The Loss of Species: Mangrove Extinction Risk and Geographic Areas of Global Concern,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2454429,"The Atacama Desert in Chile is well known for being the driest and oldest desert on Earth. For these same reasons, it is also considered a good analog model of the planet Mars. Only a few decades ago, it was thought that this was a sterile place, but in the past years fascinating adaptations have been reported in the members of the three domains of life: low water availability, high UV radiation, high salinity, and other environmental stresses. However, the biotechnological applications derived from the basic understanding and characterization of these species, with the notable exception of copper bioleaching, are still in its infancy, thus offering an immense potential for future development.",Biotechnological applications derived from microorganisms of the Atacama Desert.,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+569604,"The pestiferous status of the terrestrial slug Deroceras reticulatum and the strong dependence of its biology and ecology on climatic factors have driven research on the potential responses of the slug to predicted scenarios of climate change. Here, we report two short-term experiments performed outdoors, under seminatural conditions, to assess the behavioural response of D. reticulatum to different climate manipulations in terms of herbivory, by measuring over 7 days the damage inflicted by slug populations to lettuce seedlings. The climate manipulations tested emulate predicted climatic conditions for northwest Spain, specifically winter warming and increased summer rainfall, in contrast respectively with normal winter conditions and summer without rain conditions. In a winter experiment, we compared a normal winter treatment with a winter warming treatment; with respect to the normal winter treatment, the winter warming treatment was characterised by higher temperature, lower relative humidity and the absence of rainfall. In a summer experiment, we compared a summer drought treatment with an increased summer rainfall treatment; with respect to the summer drought treatment, the increased summer rainfall treatment was characterised by the presence of rainfall, while the conditions of temperature and relative humidity were similar in both treatments. Neither winter warming nor increased summer rainfall did lead to a significant increase on the number of seedlings damaged by the slugs. However, with both treatments, we found a moderate increase on the amount of damage suffered by the seedlings. The results are discussed in the context of the potential responses of D. reticulatum to future climatic conditions.","The effect of climate manipulations on the herbivory of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum (Muller, 1774) (Pulmonata: Agriolimacidae)",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+26450,"The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate. Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 16.9 kilometers per decade. These rates are approximately two and three times faster than previously reported. The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes. However, individual species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change. Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species.",Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+150260,"Tree populations located at the geographical distribution limit of the species may provide valuable information about the response of tree growth to climate warming across climatic gradients. Dendroclimatic information was extracted from a network of 10 silver-fir (Abies alba) populations in the south-western distribution limit of the species (Pyrenees, NE Iberian Peninsula). Ring-width chronologies were built for five stands sampled in mesic sites from the Main Range in the Pyrenees, and for five forests located in the southern Peripheral Ranges where summer drought is more pronounced. The radial growth of silver-fir in this region is constrained by water stress during the summer previous to growth, as suggested by the negative relationship with previous September temperature and, to a lesser degree, by a positive relationship with previous end of summer precipitation. Climatic data showed a warming trend since the 1970s across the Pyrenees, with more severe summer droughts. The recent warming changed the climate-growth relationships, causing higher growth synchrony among sites, and a higher year-to-year growth variation, especially in the southernmost forests. Moving-interval response functions suggested an increasing water-stress effect on radial growth during the last half of the 20th century. The growth period under water stress has extended from summer up to early autumn. Forests located in the southern Peripheral Ranges experienced a more intense water stress, as seen in a shift of their response to precipitation and temperature. The Main-Range sites mainly showed a response to warming. The intensification of water-stress during the late 20th century might affect the future growth performance of the highly-fragmented A. alba populations in the southwestern distribution limit of the species.",Increasing aridity is enhancing silver fir Abies alba mill.) water stress in its south-western distribution limit,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+742655,"This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the eco-environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR), Tibetan Plateau, China. Temperature and precipitation experienced sharp increases in this region during the past 57 years. A dramatic increase in winter temperatures contributed to a rise in average annual temperatures. Moreover, annual runoff in the Lancang (LRB) and Yangtze (YARB) river basins showed an increasing trend, compared to a slight decrease in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Runoff is predominantly influenced by rainfall, which is controlled by several monsoon systems. The water temperature in the YRB and YARB increased significantly from 1958 to 2007 (p < 0.001), driven by air temperature changes. Additionally, owing to warming and wetting trends in the TRHR, the net primary productivity (NPP) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed significant increasing trends during the past half-century. Furthermore, although an increase in water erosion due to rainfall erosivity was observed, wind speeds declined significantly, causing a decline in wind erosion, as well as the frequency and duration of sandstorms. A clear regional warming trend caused an obvious increasing trend in glacier runoff, with a maximum value observed in the 2000s.","Climate Change and Its Impact on the Eco-Environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region on the Tibetan Plateau, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,1.0
+1279852,"Despite the importance of subdaily precipitation extremes for urban areas, the role of dynamic and thermodynamic scaling in changes in precipitation extremes in India remains poorly constrained. Here we estimate contributions from thermodynamic and dynamic scaling on changes in subdaily precipitation extremes for 23 urban locations in India. Subdaily precipitation extremes have become more intense during the last few decades. Moreover, we find a twofold rise in the frequency of subdaily precipitation extremes during 1979-2015, which is faster than the increase in daily precipitation extremes. The contribution of dynamic scaling in this rise in the frequency and intensity of subdaily precipitation extremes is higher than the thermodynamic scaling. Moreover, half-hourly precipitation extremes show higher contributions from the both thermodynamic (similar to 10%/K) and dynamic (similar to 15%/K) scaling than daily (6%/K and 9%/K, respectively) extremes indicating the role of warming on the rise in the subdaily precipitation extremes in India. Our findings have implications for better understanding the dynamic response of precipitation extremes under the warming climate over India. Plain Language Summary Understanding the changes in precipitation extremes in urban areas with warming climate can be valuable in mitigating the adverse social and financial consequences. India has witnessed a twofold rise in the frequency of subdaily precipitation extremes during 1979-2015. This increase in the subdaily frequency of extreme precipitation events is higher than the frequency of daily precipitation extremes. Urban areas in India witness flooding due to increasing extreme precipitation events, which caused enormous damage to infrastructure. Despite the increase in subdaily extreme precipitation in India, the contribution of thermodynamic and dynamic scaling remains largely unexplored. We show that subdaily precipitation extremes have substantially larger contribution from thermodynamic and dynamic scaling than that of daily precipitation extremes. We find that subdaily precipitation extremes are more strongly related to changes in variations in the atmospheric motion and increase in vertical velocity than the rise in atmospheric moisture content. Our work will help in understanding the subdaily precipitation extremes in India under the warming climate.",Contributions of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Scaling in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3902693,"Clay-rich soils (Typic Paleudults) developed on an upland landscape underlain by Cambrian-Ordovician carbonate bedrock in eastern Tennessee, USA, were examined using both excavated soil pits and deep boreholes (to 11 m depth). Two hypotheses for soil formation were tested using field relationships, micromorphology, mass-balance of whole-soil geochemistry, and x-ray analyses of clay mineralogy. The simpler single-parent-material (in situ, top-down pedogenesis) hypothesis of formation is not supported; instead, a polygenetic origin that involved repeated inputs of colluvial and alluvial materials is indicated. Buried paleosurfaces, evidenced by increases in grain size, changes in clay mineralogy, preservation of organic matter and rooting, and concentrations of chert and alluvially derived metaquartzite grains indicate that episodes of landscape instability affected this mature landscape, which may have formed over as much as several million years, based upon dolostone insoluble residue contents and assumed dissolution rates of 10-30 mm/1000 yr. Field and micromorphologic study indicates fluvial and colluvial influxes of detrital quartz and metaquartzite grains not present in the underlying carbonate bedrock. Mass-balance analyses show that in situ dissolution of carbonate bedrock alone would have required > 100 m thickness of bedrock to develop the thickest soil profiles present at these sites. Clay mineralogical analysis supports formation of some pedogenic kaolinite, halloysite and hydroxy-interlayer minerals by weathering, but with significant inheritance of illites from underlying Paleozoic carbonate bedrock. The results of this study indicate that inputs of colluvial and alluvial materials can play an important role in formation of Ultisols on clay-poor carbonate bedrock parent materials in warm-temperate and humid climates such as the southeastern US.","Genesis of clay-rich soils from carbonate bedrock on upland surfaces in the valley and ridge province, eastern Tennessee, USA",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+572040,"PREMISE OF THE STUDY : Mountainous regions support high plant productivity, diversity, and endemism, yet are highly vulnerable to climate change. Historical records and model predictions show increasing temperatures across high elevation regions including the Southern Rocky Mountains, which can have a strong influence on the performance and distribution of montane plant species. Rare plant species can be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their limited abundance and distribution. METHODS: We tracked the phenology of rare and endemic species, which are identified as imperiled, across three different habitat types with herbarium records to determine if flowering time has changed over the last century, and if phenological change was related to shifts in climate. KEY RESULTS: We found that the flowering date of rare species has accelerated 3.1 d every decade (42 d total) since the late 1800s, with plants in sagebrush interbasins showing the strongest accelerations in phenology. High winter temperatures were associated with the acceleration of phenology in low elevation sagebrush and barren river habitats, whereas high spring temperatures explained accelerated phenology in the high elevation alpine habitat. In contrast, high spring temperatures delayed the phenology of plant species in the two low-elevation habitats and precipitation had mixed effects depending on the season. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide evidence for large shifts in the phenology of rare Rocky Mountain plants related to climate, which can have strong effects on plant fitness, the abundance of associated wildlife, and the future of plant conservation in mountainous regions.",Long-term shifts in the phenology of rare and endemic Rocky Mountain plants,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+411800,"Various agricultural sectors are likely to be sensitive to projected climate change. Winegrapes are particularly sensitive to climate change because of the intrinsic link between the climate and the characteristic and often unique quality of the resulting wine. Here we present results from a study exploring the impact of projected climate change on the Australian wine industry. In the present study, impact models based upon existing viticultural and winegrape market data are used to estimate how projected regional temperature increases might affect the winegrape and wine industry throughout Australia by 2030 and 2050. The effect on winegrape quality is determined for different premium winegrape varieties separately. Differential impacts were determined across a range of base-climates, climate change regimes and varietal crush profiles. This represents the first national study of the impact of climate change on winegrape quality that is regionally specific, and that integrates varietal differences in temperature sensitivity. The impact of warming was found to be negative overall, assuming no adaptation is implemented, for all Australian winegrowing regions. It is found that the reduction to winegrape quality varied regionally, with greater quality reductions calculated for the inland regions. Without adaptation, winegrape quality may be reduced at a national scale in Australia from 7% with lower warming to 39% with higher future warming by the year 2030, and from 9% with lower warming to 76% with higher warming by the year 2050 (all uncertainties considered).",Climate change and winegrape quality in Australia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+188789,"A plant and soil simulation model based on satellite observations of vegetation and climate data was used to estimate the potential carbon pools in standing wood biomass across all forest ecosystems of the conterminous United States up to the year 1997. These modeled estimates of vegetative carbon potential were compared to aggregated measurements of standing wood biomass from the U. S. Forest Service's national Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data set and the Carbon Online Estimator (COLE) to understand: 1) predominant geographic variations in tree growth rate and 2) local land cover and land use history including the time since the last stand-replacing disturbance (e.g., from wildfire or harvest). Results suggest that although wood appears to be accumulating at high rates in many areas of the U.S. (Northwest and Southeast), there are still extensive areas of relatively low biomass forest in the late 1990s according to FIA records. We attribute these low biomass accumulation levels to the high frequency of disturbances, which can be observed even in high production areas such as the Southeast due to frequent forest harvests. Ecosystem models like the one presented in this study have been coupled with satellite observations of land cover and green plant density to uniquely differentiate areas with a high potential for vegetative carbon storage at relatively fine spatial resolution.","Storage of carbon in US forests predicted from satellite data, ecosystem modeling, and inventory summaries",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3291335,"Natural conditions and indigenous culture are fundamental factors creating the hydrological landscape system of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. A study of the indigenous landscape is critical to understanding the interaction between human activities and natural processes, thereby enhancing the delta's ability to cope with climate change and to control floods. This paper uses a case study of Can Tho City (CTC) to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of the local landscape system and explores how indigenous knowledge contributes to the sustainability of this landscape. The outcomes show (1) the complexity of balancing territorial organization and agriculture needs and (2) the combination between these two factors and local knowledge of flood resilience making it possible to preserve a landscape system concerning complex hydrological dynamics, in the downstream section of the Mekong River Basin. This paper argues that knowledge of indigenous agriculture cultivation and the functioning of local landscape system should be respected and used in the process of urban design to maintain sustainability over time. A scenario is discussed to emphasize the balance needed between a human-made environment and natural hydrodynamics to preserve the local landscape system and thereby enhance urban resilience to floods and climate change.","Flood-resilient urban design based on the indigenous landscape in the city of Can Tho, Vietnam",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2089944,"The timing of Anguilla spp. glass eel recruitment into the Waikato River, North Island, New Zealand, was studied over a 2 year period (2004-2005). While glass eels of both the shortfin eel Anguilla australis and the endemic longfin eel Anguilla dieffenbachii were caught, the former comprised > 97% of the species composition. There was a positive correlation of glass eel migrations with spring tides, with peak migration periods typically occurring within a few hours of the peak of high tide, and between 2 and 4 days after the day of spring tide. Both water temperature and discharge had significant inverse relationships with glass eel catches, with temperature explaining > 30% of the variance in catch periodicity. Comparison of catch data 30 years apart showed that main migration periods appear to occur several weeks earlier today than previously. Reduced catch per unit effort and duration of runs from recent years' sampling (compared with the 1970s) indicate that a reduction in recruitment may also have occurred during this period, something recorded in other temperate species of Anguilla.","Recruitment of Anguilla spp. glass eels in the Waikato River, New Zealand. Evidence of declining migrations?",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+48242,"It is well established that the Earth's climate system has warmed significantly over the past several decades, and in association there have been widespread changes in various other Earth system components. This has been especially prevalent in the cold regions of the northern mid-to high latitudes. Examples of these changes can be found within the western and northern interior of Canada, a region that exemplifies the scientific and societal issues faced in many other similar parts of the world, and where impacts have global-scale consequences. This region has been the geographic focus of a large amount of previous research on changing climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological regimes in recent decades, while current initiatives such as the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) introduced in this review seek to further develop the understanding and diagnosis of this change and hence improve the capacity to predict future change. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the observed changes in various Earth system components and a concise and up-to-date regional picture of some of the temporal trends over the interior of western Canada since the mid- or late 20th century. The focus is on air temperature, precipitation, seasonal snow cover, mountain glaciers, permafrost, freshwater ice cover, and river discharge. Important long-term observational networks and data sets are described, and qualitative linkages among the changing components are highlighted. Increases in air temperature are the most notable changes within the domain, rising on average 2 degrees C throughout the western interior since 1950. This increase in air temperature is associated with hydrologically important changes to precipitation regimes and unambiguous declines in snow cover depth, persistence, and spatial extent. Consequences of warming air temperatures have caused mountain glaciers to recede at all latitudes, permafrost to thaw at its southern limit, and active layers over permafrost to thicken. Despite these changes, integrated effects on stream flow are complex and often offsetting. Following a review of the current literature, we provide insight from a network of northern research catchments and other sites detailing how climate change confounds hydrological responses at smaller scales, and we recommend several priority research areas that will be a focus of continued work in CCRN. Given the complex interactions and process responses to climate change, it is argued that further conceptual understanding and quantitative diagnosis of the mechanisms of change over a range of scales is required before projections of future change can be made with confidence.","Recent climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological changes over the interior of western Canada: a review and synthesis",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+715323,"The incidence and severity of forest fires are linked to the interaction between climate, fuel and topography. Increased warming and drying in the future is expected to have a significant impact on the risk of forest fire occurrence. An increase in fire risk is linked to the synchronous relationship between climate and fuel moisture conditions. A warmer, drier climate will lead to drier forest fuels that will in turn increase the chance of successful fire ignition and propagation. This interaction will increase the severity of fire weather, which, in turn, will increase the risk of extreme fire behaviour. A warmer climate will also extend fire season length, which will increase the likelihood of fires occurring over a greater proportion of the year. In this study of the North Okanagan area of British Columbia, Canada, the impacts of climate change of fire potential were evaluated using the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System and multiple climate scenario analysis. Utilizing this approach, a 30% increase in fire season length was modelled to occur by 2070. In addition, statistically significant increases in fire severity and fire behaviour were also modelled. Fire weather severity was predicted to increase by 95% during the summer months by 2070 while fire behaviour was predicted to shift from surface fire-intermittent crown fire regimes to a predominantly intermittent-full crown fire regime by 2070 onwards. An increase in fire season length, fire weather severity and fire behaviour will increase the costs of fire suppression and the risk of property and resource loss while limiting human-use within vulnerable forest landscapes. An increase in fire weather severity and fire behaviour over a greater proportion of the season will increase the risks faced by ecosystems and biodiversity to climatic change and increase the costs and difficulty of achieving sustainable forest management.","Climatic change and fire potential in South-Central British Columbia, Canada",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2116320,"Water, essential for the biology of living organisms, is also important for agriculture, for the organization of social life and for culture. In this review we discuss the interrelationship between water availability and human population size. The total population of the globe, 3-5 million people between the years 25,000 and 5000 Before Common Era (BCE), increased about 50-fold in coincidence with the development of agriculture. Later on, after the year 200 Common Era (CE), the number of people did not change appreciably and increased slowly in the period 1000 to 1500 CE. We show that the main cause of this observed slow-down in population growth was the increase in population density, which caused the appearance and spreading of infectious diseases, often due to the use of contaminated water. Population started to increase again when people learned how to use appropriate sanitation and hygienic rules. The management of water resources, including transport of water to the areas where it is needed, separation and depuration of wastewater and production of freshwater by desalination, have become increasingly important. The population level is today very high and will continue to grow, thus causing a further increase in the density of people and an increased risk of contagious diseases. Therefore, more water for sanitation will be needed all over the world.","Water, Population Growth and Contagious Diseases",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+728592,"Linear regression and cumulative sum analysis (CUSUM) change point analyses were used to determine whether there had been a significant change in the first flowering date between 1983 and 2006 for 65 species. Both methods agreed that the first flowering date of 47 species did not change and that eight species had a significant change (P < 0.05) in their flowering. Three species shifted to later flowering and five species to earlier. Over the observation period, each method found that the average shift to later flowering was greater (37.4 days or approx. 1.56 days per year for CUSUM change point analysis and 51.4 days or 2.14 days per year for linear regression) than that to earlier flowering (28.4 days or approx. 1.20 days per year for change point analysis and 46.5 days or 1.97 days per year for linear regression). For the remaining 10 species the results of linear regression and change point methods differed. Each method found five species (three earlier flowering and two later) to have a significantly changed first flowering date over their observation period, where the other method did not. Some of these differences can be attributed to the fact that the CUSUM method can detect multiple change points whereas linear regression can not. Significant change points in first flowering date were identified for 13 species between the years 1987 to 1998. The most frequent year identified as a change point year was 1995. The two methods, although not interchangeable, had strong agreement (84.6%) in detecting shifts. This gives greater confidence that a change in flowering has occurred for eight species and equally importantly, that no change in first flowering date has occurred for 47 species.",Detecting change in an Australian flowering record: Comparisons of linear regression and cumulative sum analysis change point analysis,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1507146,"The objective of this study is to quantify the role of climate and human impacts on streamflow conditions by using historical streamflow records, in conjunction with trend analysis and hydrologic modeling. Four U.S. states, including Indiana, New York, Arizona and Georgia area used to represent various level of human activity based on population change and diverse climate conditions. The Mann-Kendall trend analysis is first used to examine the magnitude changes in precipitation, streamflow and potential evapo-transpiration for the four states. Four hydrologic modeling methods, including linear regression, hydrologic simulation, annual balance, and Budyko analysis are then used to quantify the amount of climate and human impacts on streamflow. All four methods show that the human impact is higher on streamflow at most gauging stations in all four states compared to climate impact. Among the four methods used, the linear regression approach produced the best hydrologic output in terms of higher Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. The methodology used in this study is also able to correctly highlight the areas with higher human impact such as the modified channelized reaches in the northwestern part of Indiana. The results from this study show that population alone cannot capture all the changes caused by human activities in a region. However, this approach provides a starting point towards understanding the role of individual human activities on streamflow changes. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Quantifying the relative impact of climate and human activities on streamflow,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+298784,"The high financial costs and institutional constraints of adapting to climate change necessitate joint planning with other development and environmental priorities, especially in Small Island Developing States. In response, ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) is gaining recognition as a cost-effective and synergistic approach for enhancing livelihoods through nature's services, building community resilience, and integrating marine spatial planning. Using Seychelles in the West Indian Ocean as a case study, we assess the readiness for climate change as a tool to implement and mainstream EbA across various spatial scales. Our assessment highlights certain governance mechanisms and policy processes that could contribute to joint adaptation and economic planning and in achieving multiple objectives. These include leadership, institutional mechanisms, science-policy nexus, decision-making structures, stakeholder involvement, and technological innovation. These readiness factors as well as knowledge gaps on future risks provide lessons for other SIDS in their climate change and integrated coastal management initiatives. As such, the needs to strengthen local governing capacity, secure sustainable funding, and promote adaptation research for long-term monitoring and cross-scale linkages are warranted.",Assessing climate change readiness in Seychelles: implications for ecosystem-based adaptation mainstreaming and marine spatial planning,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1301919,"Sea-level rise challenges public policy-making because existing planning frameworks and methods are designed to promote certainty using static and time-bound planning and legal instruments. Sea-level rise is a dynamic and uncertain process, which is deeply uncertain towards the latter part of this century and beyond. Communities require decision making approaches that can enable adjustments to policies ahead of damage, without entrenching current exposure to hazards or incurring larger than necessary adjustment costs in the future. We first discuss the nature of the sea-level problem, the policy context that creates decision-making challenges and how they have been typically addressed through policy and practice. Secondly, we show how an assessment and planning approach, designed to address uncertainty and change (the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) planning approach), has been integrated into national guidance for coastal hazard and climate change decision making in New Zealand. The Guidance integrates hazard and sea-level rise assessments with uncertainty type and with the scale and scope of activity. It is underpinned with values-based community engagement, and uses signals and decision triggers for monitoring and adjusting pathways to meet objectives over time. The applicability of the approach in the Guidance for other policy problems involving uncertainty, is also discussed.","National guidance for adapting to coastal hazards and sea-level rise: Anticipating change, when and how to change pathway",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1374106,"Seven years of net surface solar irradiance (S) derived from cloud information provided by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project and 4 years of surface latent heat flux (E) derived from observations of the special sensor microwave imager were used to examine the relation between surface heat fluxes and sea surface temperature (T(s)) in their global geographical distribution, seasonal cycle, and interannual variation. The relations of seasonal changes imply that evaporation cooling is significant over most of the ocean and that solar heating is the main drive for the change of T(s) away from the equatorial wave guide where ocean dynamics may be more important. However, T(s) is not the most direct and significant factor in the seasonal changes of S and E over most of the ocean; the solar incident angle may be more important to S, and wind speed and air humidity are found to correlate better with E. Significant local correlations between anomalies of T(s) and S and between anomalies of T(s) and E are found in the central equatorial Pacific; both types of correlation are negative. In this area, organized deep convection overlies the warm ocean, forms high clouds, and reduces S, while the low wind speed and high humidity that result from surface convergence reduce E. The negative correlation is not present in the surrounding areas where equally warm water and strong T(s) anomalies are found under a subsiding atmosphere without similarly strong S and E anomalies. Correlation between anomalies of temperature tendency and the fluxes is weak, indicating that other factors are more influential in changing upper ocean heat balance during El Nino. The result shows that the relations between T(s) and the flux components, in annual and interannual timescales, are not universal and not consistent with the local negative feedback postulations which require that an increase in T(s) would result in an increase in local evaporative cooling and a decrease in local solar heating of the ocean. Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes clouds, winds, and humidity; they, in turn, influence the fluxes significantly. The influence of ocean dynamics in changing T(s) in the tropical ocean can not be ignored.",EVAPORATION AND SOLAR IRRADIANCE AS REGULATORS OF SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN ANNUAL AND INTERANNUAL CHANGES,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+718219,"Glaciers are widely recognized as sensitive indicators for regional climate change. This study reports changes of glaciers in the Sikeshu River basin, Tienshan Mountains, northwest China, between 1964 and 2004. Analysis of satellite images showed that the glaciated area decreased by about 15.4% (0.38% y(-1)) from 114.6 to 96.9 km(2). The average glacier front retreat amounts to 195.3 m (4.9 m y(-1)) during the last four decades. Data from the Jilede hydro-meteorological station in the Sikeshu River basin showed increases in both the annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation during 1964-2004. This indicates that the glacier shrinkage in the Sikeshu River basin over the last 40 years was largely due to regional climate warming that enhanced glacier ablation and overcompensated for the effects of increased precipitation on the glacier mass balance. Glaciers smaller than 0.5 km(2) in area experienced the strongest retreat, whereas glaciers larger than 2 km(2) in area experienced gentle recession but may be the main contributors in the future to river runoff. Glacial shrinkage in the Sikeshu River basin is likely to continue with the temperature increase expected in coming decades. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.","Glacier changes in the Sikeshu River basin, Tienshan Mountains",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+601657,"High-temporal resolution meteorological output from the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) is used to assess changes in wildland fire danger across the western United States due to climatic changes projected in the 21st century. A business-as-usual scenario incorporating changing greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations until the year 2089 is compared to a 1975 - 1996 base period. Changes in relative humidity, especially drying over much of the West, are projected to increase the number of days of high fire danger ( based on the energy release component (ERC) index) at least through the year 2089 in comparison to the base period. The regions most affected are the northern Rockies, Great Basin and the Southwest - regions that have already experienced significant fire activity early this century. In these regions starting around the year 2070, when the model climate CO2 has doubled from present-day, the increase in the number of days that ERC ( fuel model G) exceeds a value of 60 is as much as two to three weeks. The Front Range of the Rockies and the High Plains regions do not show a similar change. For regions where change is predicted, new fire and fuels management strategies and policies may be needed to address added climatic risks while also accommodating complex and changing ecosystems subject to human stresses on the region. These results, and their potential impact on fire and land management policy development, demonstrate the value of climatemodels for important management applications, as encouraged under the Department of Energy Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative ( ACPI), under whose auspices this work was performed.",The impact of twenty-first century climate change on wildland fire danger in the western United States: An applications perspective,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+784431,"The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge.",Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate-Magnitude and Determinants,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1484862,"The risks of emergency room ( ER) visits for cerebral infarction (CI) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is found to differ in different age groups under different climatic thermal environments. Based on CI and ICH related ER-visit records from three major hospitals in Beijing, China, from 2008 to 2012, the advanced Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), was adopted in this study to assess the climatic thermal environment. Particularly, daily mean UTCI was used as a predictor for the risk of ER visits for CI and ICH. A generalized quasi-Poisson additive model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was performed to quantify their association. The results indicated that (i) the highest growth rate of ER visits for ICH occurred in age 38 to 48, whereas an increasing ER admissions for CI maintained at age 38 to 78. (ii) The frequency distribution of UTCI in Beijing peaked at -8 and 30 degrees C, corresponding to moderate cold stress and moderate heat stress, respectively. (iii) Correlation analysis indicated that ICH morbidity was negatively correlated with UTCI, whereas occurrence of CI showed no significant association with UTCI. (iv) The estimated relative risk of ER visits corresponding to 1 degrees C change in UTCI, which was then stratified by age and gender, indicated that all sub-groups of ICH patients responded similarly to thermal stress. Namely, there is an immediate ICH risk (UTCI = -13 degrees C, RR = 1.35, 95% CIs: 1.11-1.63) from cold stress on the onset day, but non-significant impact from heat stress. As for CI occurrences, no effect from cold stress was identified, except for only those aged 45 to 65 were threatened by heat stress (UTCI = 38 degrees C, RR = 1.64, 95% CIs: 1.10-2.44) on lag 0-2 d. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Differences of hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes in age spectra and responses to climatic thermal conditions,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+731239,"Objective: Modelling the relationship between weather, climate and infectious diseases can help identify high-risk periods and provide understanding of the determinants of longer-term trends. We provide a detailed examination of the non-linear and delayed association between temperature and salmonellosis in three New Zealand cities (Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch). Methods: Salmonella notifications were geocoded to the city of residence for the reported case. City-specific associations between weekly maximum temperature and the onset date for reported salmonella infections (1997-2007) were modelled using non-linear distributed lag models, while controlling for season and long-term trends. Results: Relatively high temperatures were positively associated with infection risk in Auckland (n=3,073) and Christchurch (n=880), although the former showed evidence of a more immediate relationship with exposure to high temperatures. There was no significant association between temperature and salmonellosis risk in Wellington. Conclusions: Projected increases in temperature with climate change may have localised health impacts, suggesting that preventative measures will need to be region-specific. This evidence contributes to the increasing concern over the public health impacts of climate change.",Spatial and temporal variation in the association between temperature and salmonellosis in NZ,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+215164,"A method is introduced by which the results of a regional climate model (RCM) that is temporarily nested in a general circulation model (GCM) are extrapolated in time. The procedure is based on a weather-type classification scheme using cluster analysis. It relies on statistical relationships between GCM and RCM output which are deduced from the overlapping nesting period. For a validation of the extrapolation scheme, a 30 yr GCM simulation of the Hadley Centre with a continuously nested RCM is used, The predictor is the large-scale 500 hPa geopotential height, and the predictands are the regional-scale surface temperature and precipitation. A comparison of the results of the extrapolation scheme with the direct RCM output for the winter temperature and precipitation in Central Europe demonstrates the potential of the method developed. Provided that results of a long-term GCM run are available and the statistics can be transferred from the overlapping period to the extrapolation period, the new method allows a reduction in the computational effort needed for long-term RCM simulations by shortening the integration time considerably.",Statistical-dynamical extrapolation of a nested regional climate simulation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+647456,"The transport sector in Greece has the largest share in the final energy consumption and the resulting emissions are one of the main sources of atmospheric pollution. This situation is worse in the region of Attica, where nearly half of the country's private cars circulate in an area equal to 3 % of the total country area; the region's climatic and geomorphological characteristics further aggravate the environmental problem. This paper examines energy saving and environmental impacts reduction from the penetration of eco-friendly technology passenger cars in this region. Three vehicle technologies are considered: (i) conventional hybrid electric vehicles, (ii) battery electric vehicles and (iii) fuel cell electric vehicles. The influence of the driving cycle is examined through the comparison of two different cycles, the New European Driving Cycle (a regulatory driving cycle) and the Athens Driving Cycle, based on actual driving data. Two alternative scenarios are formulated. The first involves the substitution of all the passenger cars that were registered during the last year (2010) with hybrid and battery electric vehicles that already exist in the Greek market. The second scenario examines the penetration of fuel cell electric vehicles. Both scenarios are evaluated on the basis of their expected energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions reduction. A 7.5 % to 9 % reduction of the CO2 emissions is expected, for the Athens Driving Cycle, if these measures are applied in a five year period.",ENVIRONMENTAL AND ENERGY ASSESSMENT OF NEW VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES IN THE GREATER ATHENS AREA,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+694104,"Trends in the duration or extent of snow cover are expected to feedback to temperature trends. We analyzed trends in dates of onset and termination of snow cover in relation to temperature over the past 27 years (1980-2006) from over 636 meteorological stations in the Northern Hemisphere. Different trends in snow duration are observed over North America and Eurasia. Over North America, the termination date of snow cover remained stable during the 27 years, whereas over Eurasia it has advanced by 2.6 +/- 5.6 d decade(-1). Earlier snow cover termination is systematically correlated on a year-to-year basis with a positive temperature anomaly during the snowmelt month with a sensitivity of -0.077 degrees C d(-1). These snow feedbacks to air temperature are more important in spring, because high net radiation is coupled with thin snow cover.",Change in snow phenology and its potential feedback to temperature in the Northern Hemisphere over the last three decades,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1866912,"Storm water management is an important urban infrastructure especially to increase resilience towards climate variability. Planning of the storm water infrastructure for urban areas is becoming more challenging with increase in urbanization and increase in sizes of the cities, especially for developing country like India. The authors here have studied the changing regime of temperature and rainfall patterns for Ahmedabad to understand the implications on storm water management. The analysis suggests increase in the rainfall intensity for the data period from 1901 to 2003. Also there has been substantial change in the coefficient of run off due to changing urban land cover estimated as per the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index. These changes put together have changed the nature of urban storm water management. The storm water management for cities like Ahmedabad would require new strategies for facing these challenges. It is important to integrate storm water management at planning level for the overall city as well as at local area levels.",Impacts of Climate Variability on Urban Floods-A Case of Ahmedabad,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1495306,"New Zealand's indigenous red beech timber is commonly air dried to remove much of the moisture before it is dried in a dehumidifier to the desired final moisture content. Air drying times are affected significantly by both the season the timber is stacked and year-to-year climate variations. This paper investigates drying-time variations at different locations in New Zealand to represent the variety of climatic conditions possible (from dry to wet), using a validated drying model and published climate data spanning a decade. In addition, an alternative method of drying red beech timber known as warehouse pre-drying is investigated. This method employs a relatively inexpensive drying chamber operated at low temperatures and humidities to dry red beech in a controlled fashion. The simulations show that 27 mm red beech timber stacked in spring can air dry nearly twice as quickly as the same timber stacked in autumn. Year-to-year climate variations can change the air drying time by over 2 months, which demonstrates the importance of tracking moisture content to ensure the timber is dried to the desired level. Warehouse pre-drying can be used to dry red beech from the green condition more quickly than can be achieved by air drying and with relatively low energy requirements compared with more the traditional methods of drying such as dehumidifier or conventional-kiln drying. The problem of significant green moisture-content variations in red beech timber can be addressed by pre-sorting the green timber or kiln equalising the air-dried or warehouse pre-dried timber. Copyright (c) 2011 Curtin University of Technology and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",A computational tool to investigate different drying methods for New Zealand indigenous red beech timber (Nothofagus fusca),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2309121,"Processes of quality at Universities can improve final results and explain higher degrees of academic performance. Sharing objectives into an environment of mutual respect and having developed mechanisms to reach an efficient communication can promote upper quality in the way knowledge is shared and offer best results in the university system. In this paper we have tried to show that the relational coordination model explains best results in Universities. The model affirms that relational coordination is produced by providing a frequent communication of high quality, supported in shared objectives, knowledge and mutual respect. This kind of coordination is the one that allows firms reaching the best results. We have surveyed academics coming from two different Universities and both located in the same area of education: veterinary. According to the analysis performed and considering the sample we have chosen, we can affirm that the relational coordination amongst team members at the University departments explains excellence in the upper education system. Therefore the relational coordination model can help to create a proper organizational climate to reach quality and effectiveness in the University System. Results show that the different dimensions of the relational coordination model: mutual respect, the sharing of goals and knowledge explain best results at Universities. We find some differences in one and another context, so we suggest enriching the relational coordination model with cultural attributes in view of future research.",THE IMPACT OF RELATIONAL COORDINATION IN FINAL RESULTS AT UNIVERSITIES: A TRANSNATIONAL COMPARISON,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1530294,"Background: Children in remote Indigenous communities in Australia have levels of dental caries much greater than the national average. One such, the Northern Peninsula Area of Far North Queensland (NPA), had an oral health survey conducted in 2004, shortly before the introduction of fluoridated, reticular water. Children were again surveyed in 2012, following five years exposure. Methods: An oral examination was conducted on all consenting children enrolled in schools across the community, using WHO Basic Oral Health Survey methodology. Results: Few teeth had restorations in both surveys. Age-weighted overall caries prevalence and severity declined from 2005 to 2012 by 37.3%. The effect was most marked in younger children, dmft decreasing by approximately 50% for ages 4-9 years; at age 6, mean decayed score decreased from 5.20 to 3.43. DMFT levels also decreased by almost half in 6-9 year olds. However, significant unmet treatment needs exist at all ages. Conclusions: There has been considerable improvement in child dental health in the NPA over the past 6-7 years. In light of continued poor diet and oral hygiene, water fluoridation is the most likely explanation. The cost-effectiveness for this small community remains an issue which, in the current climate of political antagonism to water fluoridation in many quarters, requires continued study.",Effectiveness of water fluoridation in caries reduction in a remote Indigenous community in Far North Queensland,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+97224,"The paper focuses on the role that can be played by urban consolidation centres (UCCs) in reducing freight traffic and its environmental impacts in towns and cities. It is based on the before and after evaluation of a trial led by a major stationery and office supplies company in which urban freight deliveries in central London made from a depot in the suburbs using diesel vehicles were replaced with the use of an urban micro-consolidation centre located in the delivery area together with the use of electrically-assisted cargo tricycles and electric vans. The results show that the total distance travelled and the CO2eq emissions per parcel delivered fell by 20% and 54% respectively as a result of this delivery system. However, the evaluation has also indicated that the distance travelled per parcel rose substantially in the City of London delivery area as a result of the electric vehicles having far smaller load limits in both weight and volume compared with diesel vans. But, at the same time, the trial system was able to virtually eliminate CO2eq emissions per parcel delivered in the City of London. The trial proved successful from the company's perspective in transport, environmental and financial terms. The company therefore decided to continue the operation beyond the end of the trial with it being officially launched during 2010. © 2011 International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences.",Evaluating the use of an urban consolidation centre and electric vehicles in central London,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+27315,"This study investigates the response of water resources regarding the climate and land-cover changes in a humid subtropical watershed during the period 1970-2009. A 0.7 degrees C increase in temperature and a 16.3% increase in precipitation were observed. Temperature had a lower increase trend, and precipitation showed definite increasing trend compared to previous studies. The main trend of land-cover change was conversion of vegetation and barren lands to developed and crop lands affected by human intervention, and forest and grass to bush/shrub which considered to be caused by natural climate system. Hydrologic responses to climate and land-cover changes resulted in increases of surface run-off (15.0%), soil water content (2.7%), evapotranspiration (20.1%) and a decrease in groundwater discharge (9.2%). We found that surface run-off is relatively stable with precipitation, whereas groundwater discharge and soil water content are sensitive to changes in land cover, especially land cover brought about by human intervention.","Impacts of climate and land-cover changes on water resources in a humid subtropical watershed: a case study from East Texas, USA",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+441069,"The area burned in the North American boreal forest is controlled by the frequency of mid-tropospheric blocking highs that cause rapid fuel drying. Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of large-scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Nino Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO/ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales. Changes in these teleconnections may be caused by the current global warming. Thus, an increase in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire-climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales. Prolonged and severe droughts were common in the past and were partly associated with changes in the PDO/ENSO system. Under these conditions, large fire years become common, fire frequency increases and fire-climate relationships occur at decadal to centennial time scales. A suggested return to the drier climate regimes of the past would imply major changes in the temporal dynamics of fire-climate relationships and in area burned, a reduction in the mean age of the forest, and changes in species composition of the North American boreal forest.",Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2337172,"Question How does spatial pattern and composition of the seed bank and its relationship to above-ground cover vary across an anthropogenic disturbance gradient of intact Florida rosemary scrub, degraded scrub and improved pasture? Location Florida rosemary scrub, Lake Wales Ridge, Highlands County, FL, USA (27 degrees 11'N, 81 degrees 21'W). Methods In nine grid plots located in intact Florida rosemary scrub, degraded scrub and improved pasture, we assessed percentage vegetation cover and seed bank composition. Results The vegetation was dominated by long-lived perennials, while the seed bank was dominated by short-lived species. Shrubs were the dominant above-ground cover in rosemary scrub, sub-shrubs and the spike moss Selaginella arenicola in degraded scrub and non-native grasses in pastures. Scrub forbs were dominant in the seed bank of rosemary scrub, similar amounts of sedges, ruderal forbs and scrub forbs in degraded scrub, and ruderal species and sedges in pastures. Species absent from the vegetation were randomly distributed in the seed bank, while species present above-ground had an aggregated spatial distribution. In rosemary scrub, scrub forb seed banks were spatially aggregated and were positively associated with conspecific species above-ground and with litter cover. These patterns were not observed in degraded scrub, perhaps due to reduced shrub and increased bare ground. Conclusion Our results suggest that reduced shrub cover and increased bare ground in the degraded scrub may explain why there is less spatial aggregation of scrub forbs in the seed bank. Restoration of Florida rosemary scrub in pasture sites will require species reintroduction of appropriate scrub species; restoration of degraded scrub should emphasize increasing shrub cover to restore habitat spatial structure.",Spatial pattern and composition of the Florida scrub seed bank and vegetation along an anthropogenic disturbance gradient,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+197431,"High Arctic climate change over the last few hundred years includes the relatively cool Little Ice Age (LIA), followed by warming over the last hundred years or so. Meteorological data from the Eurasian High Arctic (Svalbard, Franz Josef Land, Severnaya Zemlya) and Canadian High Arctic islands are scarce before the mid-20th century, but longer records from Svalbard and Greenland show warming from about 1910-1920. Logs of Royal Navy ships in the Canadian Northwest Passage in the 1850s indicate temperatures cooler by 1-2.5 degrees C during the LIA. Other evidence of recent trends in High Arctic temperatures and precipitation is derived from ice cores, which show cooler temperatures (by 2-3 degrees C) for several hundred years before 1900, with high interdecadal variability. The proportion of melt layers in ice cores has also risen over the last 70-130 years, indicating warming. There is widespread geological evidence of glacier retreat in the High Arctic since about the turn of the century linked to the end of the LIA. An exception is the rapid advance of some surge-type ice masses Mass balance measurements on ice caps in Arctic Canada, Svalbard and Severnaya Zemlya since 1950 show either negative or near-zero net balances, suggesting glacier response to recent climate warming. Glacier-climate links are modelled using an energy balance approach to predict glacier response to possible future climate warming, and cooler LIA temperatures. For Spitsbergen glaciers, a negative shift in mass balance of about 0.5 m a(-1) is predicted for a 1 degrees C warming. A cooling of about 0.6 degrees C, or a 23% precipitation increase, would produce an approximately zero net mass balance. A 'greenhouse-induced' warming of 1 degrees C in the High Arctic is predicted to produce a global sea-level rise of 0.063 mm a(-1) from ice cap melting.",GLACIERS IN THE HIGH ARCTIC AND RECENT ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2089967,"Aim Our scientific understanding of the extent and distribution of mangrove forests of the world is inadequate. The available global mangrove databases, compiled using disparate geospatial data sources and national statistics, need to be improved. Here, we mapped the status and distributions of global mangroves using recently available Global Land Survey (GLS) data and the Landsat archive. Methods We interpreted approximately 1000 Landsat scenes using hybrid supervised and unsupervised digital image classification techniques. Each image was normalized for variation in solar angle and earth-sun distance by converting the digital number values to the top-of-the-atmosphere reflectance. Ground truth data and existing maps and databases were used to select training samples and also for iterative labelling. Results were validated using existing GIS data and the published literature to map 'true mangroves'. Results The total area of mangroves in the year 2000 was 137,760 km2 in 118 countries and territories in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Approximately 75% of world's mangroves are found in just 15 countries, and only 6.9% are protected under the existing protected areas network (IUCN I-IV). Our study confirms earlier findings that the biogeographic distribution of mangroves is generally confined to the tropical and subtropical regions and the largest percentage of mangroves is found between 5 degrees N and 5 degrees S latitude. Main conclusions We report that the remaining area of mangrove forest in the world is less than previously thought. Our estimate is 12.3% smaller than the most recent estimate by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. We present the most comprehensive, globally consistent and highest resolution (30 m) global mangrove database ever created. We developed and used better mapping techniques and data sources and mapped mangroves with better spatial and thematic details than previous studies.",Status and distribution of mangrove forests of the world using earth observation satellite data,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3983855,"Background: Catheter ablation for complex left-atrial arrhythmia is increasing worldwide with many centres admitting patients overnight. Same-day procedures using conscious sedation carry significant benefits to patients/healthcare providers but data are limited. We evaluated the safety and cost-effectiveness of same-day complex left-atrial arrhythmia ablation. Method: Multi-centre retrospective cohort study of all consecutive complex elective left-atrial ablation procedures performed between January 2011 and December 2019. Data were collected on planned same-day discharge versus overnight stay, baseline parameters, procedure details/success, ablation technology, post-operative complications, unplanned overnight admissions/outcomes at 4-months and mortality up to April 2020. A cost analysis of potential savings was also performed. Results: A total of 967 consecutive patients underwent complex left-ablation using radiofrequency (point-by-point ablation aided by 3D-mapping or PVAC catheter ablation with fluoroscopic screening) or cryoballoon-ablation (mean age: 60.9 ± 11.6 years, range 23-83 yrs., 572 [59%] females). The majority of patients had isolation of pulmonary veins alone (n = 846, 87%) and most using conscious-sedation alone (n = 921, 95%). Of the total cohort, 414 (43%) had planned same-day procedure with 35 (8%) admitted overnight due to major (n = 5) or minor (n = 30) complications. Overall acute procedural success-rate was 96% (n = 932). Complications in planned overnight-stay/same-day cohorts were low. At 4-month follow-up there were 62 (6.4%) readmissions (femoral haematomas, palpitation, other reasons); there were 3 deaths at mean follow-up of 42.0 ± 27.6 months, none related to the procedure. Overnight stay costs £350; the same-day ablation policy over this period would have saved £310,450. Conclusions: Same-day complex left-atrial catheter ablation using conscious sedation is safe and cost-effective with significant benefits for patients and healthcare providers. This is especially important in the current financial climate and Covid-19 pandemic. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.",Safety and cost-effectiveness of same-day complex left atrial ablation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+67246,"Mussel beds along the wave-exposed coast of the eastern North Pacific Ocean serve as an important habitat, harboring a high diversity of species. A comparison of California mussel bed community diversity in 2002 to historical data (1960s to 1970s) revealed large declines (mean loss 58.9%), including some declines > 141 species (similar to 80% loss). Concurrent work revealed inconsistent changes in mussel populations (biomass and bed thickness) along the California coast, suggesting that diversity declines may be related to large-scale processes rather than local habitat destruction. Potential factors causing declines in mussel Community diversity are discussed, with regional climate change associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and climate change-induced alterations of ecological interactions and biological processes Suggested as likely causes. Although extensive literature has predicted the potential effects of climate change on global diversity, this study is one of the few examples of declines attributed to climate change.",Dramatic declines in mussel bed community diversity: Response to climate change?,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1300196,"In the present study, spatio-temporal variability of hydrological components under climate change is analysed over Wainganga River basin, India. In order to address the climate change projection, hydrological modelling is carried out using a macro scale, semi-distributed three (3)-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC-3 L) model. The high-resolution (0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees) meteorological variables are divided into multiple periods to calibrate and validate the VIC-3 L model. The future projections (2020-2094) of the water balance components are achieved using the high resolution hydrological variables from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) dataset under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The uncertainty associated with the multi-model projections are evaluated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) and the bias correction is accomplished with non-parametric quantile mapping. A probabilistic based areal drought index is also computed for different scenarios using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). From the results, it is observed that amount of rainfall, evapotranspiration, and runoff has increased over the basin with no change in the spatial pattern. However, temporal variability is noticed with an increasing trend for rainfall and runoff in the non-monsoon season than the monsoon. Streamflow is expected to increase significantly, especially for medium to low flows (those occurring between 0.2 and 0.9 probability of exceedance in a Flow Duration Curve). In addition, the area under the drought condition has decreased under the projected climate scenarios.",Spatio-Temporal Variation of Water Availability in a River Basin under CORDEX Simulated Future Projections,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+332160,"Since the early 1980s, episodes of coral reef bleaching and mortality, due primarily to climate-induced ocean warming, have occurred almost annually in one or more of the world's tropical or subtropical seas. Bleaching is episodic, with the most severe events typically accompanying coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which result in sustained regional elevations of ocean temperature. Using this extended dataset (25+ years), we review the short- and long-term ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef ecosystems, and quantitatively synthesize recovery data worldwide. Bleaching episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral cover in some locations, and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the marine tropics. Bleaching has also set the stage for other declines in reef health, such as increases in coral diseases, the breakdown of reef framework by bioeroders, and the loss of critical habitat for associated reef fishes and other biota. Secondary ecological effects, such as the concentration of predators on remnant surviving coral populations, have also accelerated the pace of decline in some areas. Although bleaching severity and recovery have been variable across all spatial scales, some reefs have experienced relatively rapid recovery from severe bleaching impacts. There has been a significant overall recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean, where many reefs were devastated by a single large bleaching event in 1998. In contrast, coral cover on western Atlantic reefs has generally continued to decline in response to multiple smaller bleaching events and a diverse set of chronic secondary stressors. No clear trends are apparent in the eastern Pacific, the central-southern-western Pacific or the Arabian Gulf, where some reefs are recovering and others are not. The majority of survivors and new recruits on regenerating and recovering coral reefs have originated from broadcast spawning taxa with a potential for asexual growth, relatively long distance dispersal, successful settlement, rapid growth and a capacity for framework construction. Whether or not affected reefs can continue to function as before will depend on: (1) how Much coral cover is lost, and which species are locally extirpated: (2) the ability of remnant and recovering coral communities to adapt or acclimatize to higher temperatures and other climatic factors such as reductions in aragonite saturation state: (3) the changing balance between reef accumulation and bioerosion; and (4) our ability to maintain ecosystem resilience by restoring healthy levels of herbivory, macroalgal cover, and coral recruitment. Bleaching disturbances are likely to become a chronic stress in many reef areas in the coming decades, and coral communities, if they cannot recover quickly enough, are likely to be reduced to their most hardy or adaptable constituents. Some degraded reefs may already be approaching this ecological asymptote, although to date there have not been any global extinctions of individual coral species as a result of bleaching events. Since human populations inhabiting tropical coastal areas derive great value from coral reefs, the degradation of these ecosystems as a result of coral bleaching and its associated impacts is of considerable societal, as well as biological concern. Coral reef conservation strategies now recognize climate change as a principal threat, and are engaged in efforts to allocate conservation activity accrding to geographic-, taxonomic-, and habitat-specific priorities to maximize coral reef survival. Efforts to forecast and monitor bleaching, involving both remote sensed observations and coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models, are also underway. In addition to these efforts, attempts to minimize and mitigate bleaching impacts on reefs are immediately required. If significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved within the next two to three decades, maximizing coral survivorship during this time may be critical to ensuring healthy reefs can recover in the long term. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+556134,"We examined the long-term variability in the abundance of yellowtail Seriola quinqueradiata and its relationship with sea water temperature in the Japan Sea, which is one of the most rapidly warming large marine ecosystems in the world ocean. The total catch of yellowtail has ranged from 14,000 to 77,000 t with an increasing trend over the last century. Decadal-scale variability was found for yellowtail with significant shifts occurring around 1911, 1931, 1950, 1973, 1989 and 2000, which was in accordance with sea surface temperatures (SST). In particular, there was close correspondence between water temperature and catch in the Japan Sea: significant and positive correlations between SSTs and catch indicated increasing water temperature in the Tsushima Warm Current region has led to positive effects on migration and recruitment of yellowtail. SST mapping of optimum water temperature for yellowtail habitat indicated a northward extension in distribution and overwintering areas of yellowtail in the Japan Sea during the warm 1990s, suggested that the migration pattern, distribution and overwintering area are largely dictated by SST. Hence, potential impacts of global warming on migration, distribution and fisheries grounds of yellowtail in the Japan Sea were estimated based on the prediction of the IPCC A1B scenario which indicated northward extension in distribution and overwintering region with global warming and will have large impacts on the fisheries for yellowtail. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Response of yellowtail, Seriola quinqueradiata, a key large predatory fish in the Japan Sea, to sea water temperature over the last century and potential effects of global warming",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+655130,"Drought and elevated temperature often occur alone or in combination in many areas, limiting cool-season grass growth. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration may affect plant adaptation to drought and high temperature. The objective of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of elevated CO2 in mitigating the negative effects of drought or elevated temperature alone or a combination of these stresses on physiological processes in a perennial grass species. The effects of these treatments on water relations, photosynthesis, and respiration were determined in tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb. cultivar Rembrandt). Grass plants were subjected to the following treatments in growth chambers: heat stress (30 degrees C or 5 degrees C above the optimal level of 25 degrees C), drought stress by maintaining soil water content at 50% of field capacity, or the combined two stresses for 28 d. Stressed and unstressed control plants were exposed to a constant level of either ambient CO2 (400 mu L L-1) or elevated CO2 (800 mu L L-1). At ambient CO2 concentration, drought and the combined stress for 28 d caused significant decline in leaf relative water content (RWC), photochemical efficiency (ratio of variable to maximum fluorescence [F-v:F-m]), net photosynthetic rate (A), stomatal conductance (g(s)), maximal ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase oxygenase (Rubisco)-limited rate of photosynthesis (V-cmax), and maximal electron transport-limited rate of photosynthesis (J(max)) but increased membrane electrolyte leakage (EL) and dark respiration rate (R-d). Elevated temperature to 5 C above the optimal level resulted in the increases in g(s), EL, and R-d but had no significant effects on the other physiological parameters. Drought stress for 28 d was more detrimental than increasing temperature by 5 degrees C for tall fescue and the combined stress was more detrimental than either stress alone. Elevated CO2 mitigated the degree of change in all physiological factors under drought or heat stress and resulted in increases in A (162%) and RWC (19%) and a reduction in EL (21%) under the combined stress. These results suggest that elevated CO2 could improve tall fescue tolerance to drought and elevated temperature by enhancing plant water status, cellular membrane stability, and photosynthesis capacity and by suppressing g(s) for water loss and C consumption through lowering respiration rate.","Effects of Elevated CO2 on Physiological Responses of Tall Fescue to Elevated Temperature, Drought Stress, and the Combined Stresses",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2316858,"The Wolonghu Wetlands is an essential ecological barrier to resist southward expansion of the Horqin Desert, also is an important stopover and energy supplement site for the global birds migrating in the route of East Asia to Australia. This paper aims to clarify the characteristics of Climate Change and adaptability assessment of migratory bird habitats in Wolonghu Wetlands. The study used the historical measured data of the past 60years and the predicted results by CMIP5 climate model to analyze the variation and development trend of temperature and precipitation in history and future. The impacts of extreme weather events on migratory bird habitats have been analyzed as well. The results show that: (1) The water level is one of the important factors affecting the birds and their habitat in Wolonghu Wetlands. The water level dropped from 88.9m to 87.83m, and the number of birds raised by 2orders of magnitude. (2) The whole climate is getting warmer and wetter. (3) In the past 60years, extreme precipitation accounted for 19% of total precipitation, and 7.7% in July. In the next 30years, extreme precipitation accounts for 13.9% of the total precipitation in the RCP4.5 scenario, and 10.1% in July. Compared with history, extreme precipitation is more concentrated in July. (4) In the past 60years, no severe drought and extraordinary drought occurred in summer. The occurrence probability of above extreme events in the next 30years is 1.83%. This study can provide some references for relevant management departments of Wolonghu Wetlands to formulate wetland protection and restoration measures.",The Characteristics of Climate Change and Adaptability Assessment of Migratory Bird Habitats in Wolonghu Wetlands,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+445156,"New Swiss legislation obligates hydropower plant owners to reduce detrimental impacts on rivers ecosystems caused by hydropealdng. We used a case study in the Swiss Alps (hydropower company Kraftwerke Oberhasli AG) to develop an efficient and successful procedure for the ecological evaluation of such impacts, and to predict the effects of possible mitigation measures. We evaluated the following scenarios using 12 biotic and abiotic indicators: the pre-mitigation scenario (i.e. current state), the future scenario with increased turbine capacity but without mitigation measures, and future scenarios with increased turbine capacity and four alternative mitigation measures. The evaluation was based on representative hydrographs and quantitative or qualitative prediction of the indicators. Despite uncertainties in the ecological responses and the future operation mode of the hydropower plant, the procedure allowed the most appropriate mitigation measure to be identified. This measure combines a basin and a cavern at a total retention volume of 80,000 m(3), allowing for substantial dampening in the flow falling and ramping rates and in turn considerable reduction in stranding risk for juvenile trout and in macroinvertebrate drift. In general, this retention volume had the greatest predicted ecological benefit and can also, to some extent, compensate for possible modifications in the hydropower operation regime in the future, e.g. due to climate change, changes in the energy market, and changes in river morphology. Furthermore, it also allows for more specific seasonal regulations of retention volume during ecologically sensitive periods (e.g. fish spawning seasons). Overall experience gained from our case study is expected to support other hydropeaking mitigation projects. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Evaluation of mitigation measures to reduce hydropeaking impacts on river ecosystems - a case study from the Swiss Alps,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1381139,"An experiment was set up to quantify the relative influence of fitness, acclimatization, gender and anthropometric measures on physiological responses to heat stress. For this purpose, 12 male and 12 female subjects were exposed to a neutral [ambient temperature (T(a)) 21-degrees-C, relative humidity (r.h. 50%)], a warm, humid (T(a) 34-degrees-C, r.h. 80%) and a hot, dry (T(a) 45-degrees-C, r.h. 20%) climate at rest and at two exercise intensities [25%, and 45% maximal O2 intake (VO2max)], seated semi-nude in a net chair behind a cycle ergometer. Their physiological responses were recorded and the data submitted to a multiple regression analysis. It was shown that for the variance in heat storage, the percentage of body fat and the surface to mass ratio had relatively the largest influence of all the individual parameters, followed by VO2max and the sweat rate versus increase in core temperature (total r-2 = 92%). For the skin temperature variation, the relative influence of individual parameters (sweat gain, VO2max) was small. For body core temperatures, individual parameters had a large influence. The largest effect was due to the percentage of fat and the surface to mass ratio, followed by the sweating setpoint and, finally, VO2max (total r-2 = 54%-70%). For the variance in heart rate the VO2max was the most relevant parameter, followed by the setpoint of the sweat rate: rectal temperature relationship (total r-2 = 88%). Blood pressure and skin blood flow predictions were also shown to improve by the addition of individual characteristics to the model. Body surface area, VO2max and the sweating setpoint were shown to have a large influence but the proportion of the variance explained by these variables was too small (r-2 < 70%) to use them as strain predictors, however. For all the predicted variables, it was shown that gender lost its influence, once VO2max or anthropometric data were introduced into the prediction equation.","THE RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF PHYSICAL-FITNESS, ACCLIMATIZATION STATE, ANTHROPOMETRIC MEASURES AND GENDER ON INDIVIDUAL REACTIONS TO HEAT-STRESS",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2324785,"Dissolved chemical compositions in rainwater have provided valuable information on pollutant sources in the atmosphere and short-term environmental changes. However, baseline chemical data associated with typhoon is rather limited. In this study, a suite of time-series rain specimens including four typhoon events are collected from Tainan city, southern Taiwan and analyzed for major ions, heavy metals and Pb isotopes to elucidate mechanisms causing dissolved components variation in rainwater and to understand how heavy metals are transported by air-mass along typhoon pathways. Being different from previous views, dissolved major ions and heavy metals in typhoon rains show high concentration and large variability compared with normal period. In particular, dissolved Ni, Cu and Pb change more than several hundred times during typhoon events. This agrees with a scenario that typhoons disturb surface environments and enhance particles scavenged from anthropogenic sites along air-mass pathways. The Pb-206/Pb-207 ratios are significantly low in high Pb contents specimens, which are mostly associated with high precipitation and confirm local anthropogenic sources due to intense water-particle interaction. In particular, the Cu and Pb fluxes increase >10,000 and >10,000,000 times respectively during typhoon events and thus impact importantly the chemical budgets of these metals in coastal ocean. Combining backward trajectories and PCA results demonstrates consistently that air-mass routes dictate critically the dissolved chemical characteristics in rains; furthermore, it highlights the importance of migration pathways to heavy metals distribution in typhoon rainwater. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Sources of major ions and heavy metals in rainwater associated with typhoon events in southwestern Taiwan,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+75483,"In Catalonia, northwest of Spain, the forest and timber industry are an active part of the economy. About 63.5% of the territory is forested area (more than 2 million Ha), from which 60.5% is wooded land. The main activity of the timber industry is the manufacture of wood packaging using 85% of the sawnwood to manufacture pallets, which is the most common wood product manufactured in the region. In the case of Europe, around 20% of all sawnwood consumption is used for wooden pallets and packaging. This research analyzes the impact of the conifers wood supply chain for the sawnwood and pallet production, from forest operations to the gate of the production facility. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology was applied to both products (sawnwood and pallet) using primary data provided by the industry in order to identify the most impactful points of the life cycle. Six midpoint impact categories using Recipe methodology were assessed: Climate change, Ozone depletion, Terrestrial acidification, Freshwater eutrophication, Human toxicity; Agricultural land occupation and Water depletion. Also, Cumulative Energy Demand was assessed. It was found that electricity consumption is the most impacting input in the sawnwood and pallet production, followed by pesticide used in the production. For pallet case, steel plays a key role. Possible improvements were identified with a big potential of impacts reduction. LCA results from this research can be applied for the assessment of other wood products and also to increase the knowledge and debate about the biogenic carbon sequestration of wooden products. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Life Cycle Assessment of a coniferous wood supply chain for pallet production in Catalonia, Spain",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1627701,"Industrial production of beef, soybeans, cotton, and biofuels is expanding into the tropical latitudes of South America and may soon reach tropical Africa in the most important agricultural transition since the Green Revolution. This shift is driven by the shortage of land suitable for expansion of cultivation and grazing in the temperate zone, increased global demands for agricultural commodities, the rising price of petroleum, and technological advances. At risk are some of the world's most ecologically and culturally-rich landscapes in the world, such as the Amazon rainforest, the Cerrado woodland complex, and African savannas. A strategy for reducing the negative ecological and social impacts of this transition could harness the rising environmental and social standards imposed by many importers and purchasers of agricultural commodities, similar reforms underway among ""Equator"" banks, growing corporate governance, and Brazil's prominence in international diplomacy. Integrated certification of commodity sanitation, compliance with rigorous environmental standards, and sound labor practices could become the norm for participation in commodity markets. These reforms in agro-industrial behavior could be reinforced by trade agreements and strategic support from non-governmental organizations. © 2008 by The Haworth Press. All rights reserved.",Managing the tropical agriculture revolution,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+692752,"In the water-limited Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Project Region, reference evapotranspiration (ETO) is a vital hydrological factor for the revegetation implementation, and its long-term variation is of much interest in climate change studies. In our study, temporal and spatial patterns in ET and related driving factors in the project region are evaluated for the period 1959-2011, based on daily data from 46 meteorological stations, using Mann-Kendall CM-K) test, Sen's slope estimator, and multivariate regression. The results indicated that annual ETO had an insignificant decreasing trend in the study area, in which 15 stations showed significant negative trends and only 1 station showed significant positive trend at the 95% confidence level. Significant downward ETO was detected in the north sub-region (I) in spring, in the west sub-region (II) in summer and autumn. Analysis of the impacts of meteorological variables on spatiotemporal trends of ETO showed that wind speed was the most dominant factor affecting ETO variation at 35 stations. Downward ETO induced by decreased wind speed may be result from revegetation of Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Project. In addition, ET change was influenced by sunshine duration in summer and maximum air temperature in winter. Better understanding ET response to climate change will enable efficient use of water resources and vegetation management, which could improve the ecological and environmental quality in Beijing, Tianjin, and the surrounding areas. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Spatiotemporal trends of reference evapotranspiration and its driving factors in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Project Region, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2652951,"Robust assessments of stream-flow volume and variability under current and potential future conditions are essential for sustainable water resources planning and management. Non-linear and overlapping responses to climate, land use, and water resources management (WRM) make it difficult to link observed stream-flow variability to individual drivers and to project potential future changes in stream-flow volume and variability. Here, we investigate WRM influences on stream-flow variability for two rivers with similar natural catchment characteristics, the Schwarze Elster and the Spree. The Schwarze Elster is characterized by less intensive WRM compared to the Spree. Management influences on stream-flow variability in the past were analysed by comparing observed managed stream-flow with simulated natural flow (model SWIM). Simulation results of natural flow and managed stream-flow (model WBalMo) forced by different climate scenarios were investigated to assess management influences on potential future stream-flow. The Schwarze Elster shows little management influences on stream-flow both in the past and under future scenarios. WRM related to lignite mining activities rather than natural processes dominated seasonal and annual stream-flow variability of the Spree in the past, while reservoir management mainly impacted short-term variability. Long-term and short-term stream-flow variability of the Spree are expected to be further reduced in future by reservoir management and water transfers to ensure minimum flow requirements. Strong impacts of WRM in reducing stream-flow variability in future scenarios underline the role of reservoir management as an effective and flexible adaptation option to uncertain climate change impacts on hydrology.",Management Influences on Stream-Flow Variability in the Past and Under Potential Climate Change in a Central European Mining Region,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+640611,"Objectives: To determine time trends and the geographical distribution of mortality trigger temperature thresholds due to extreme temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (central Spain) between 1975 and 2003. Methods: The analysis was divided into three periods (1975 - 1984, 1985 - 1994 and 1995 - 2003) for each province of the region. Daily mortality due to organic causes (dependent variable) was modelled using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) procedures. The resulting residual series was related to the maximum temperature series grouped in 2 degrees C intervals to obtain a threshold temperature for cold or heat when the residuals rose significantly (p < 0,05) above the mean residual mortality value of the corresponding study period. Results: Mortality trigger temperature thresholds decreased over time in Castile-La Mancha. In Toledo, the trigger temperature diminished from 40 degrees C to 38 degrees C. In Cuenca and Guadalajara, threshold temperatures for heat events were obtained in the last few decades but not in the first. These thresholds varied from the 92nd percentile in Cuenca to the 98th percentile in Albacete in the last decade. No threshold temperatures for cold spells were observed in any province or period. Conclusions: Castile-La Mancha registered an upward trend in the relationship between high temperatures and mortality, probably due to population aging. This trend could have been influenced by the increased frequency of extremely hot days. Prevention plans should be periodically reviewed. (C) 2009 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L. All rights reserved.",Effects of temperature extremes on daily mortality in Castile-La Mancha (Spain): trends from 1975 to 2003,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3887238,"Maintaining functionality and ensuring the security of critical infrastructure is one of the critical aspects of national security. Ensuring national security is no longer (not only) a problem of the military security sector, but it is above all a social, socio-political and economic problem. Modern European security research, supported since 2007 [1, 2] by social grant challenges such as H2020-Security Societies [3] or DG Migration and Home Affairs-Terrorism other Security-related [3, 4], aims to: 'protect citizens, society and the economy, as well as infrastructure and services'. These objectives include the protection of critical infrastructure against intentional anthropogenic threats. In this article, we want to introduce the CI-PAC project. This project is a research project funded by the European Commission within the Terrorism and other Security-Related Risks (CIPS) Program. In the context of this article, we would like to point out the possibilities of managerial skills development not only from defined critical infrastructure sectors, but also from various economic sectors such as physical security systems designers and architects of these sites, including relevant governmental organizations, responsible for compliance and review of the Critical infrastructure protection measures [5]. © 2019 IEEE.",Critical infrastructure protection against chemical attack-project CIPAC,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+427367,"Climate change continues to have major impact on crop productivity all over the world. Many researchers have evaluated the possible impact of global warming on crop yields using mainly indirect crop simulation models. Here we use a 1979-2000 Chinese crop-specific panel dataset to investigate the climate impact on Chinese wheat yield growth. We find that a 1 degrees C increase in wheat growing season temperature reduces wheat yields by about 3-10%. This negative impact is less severe than those reported in other regions. Rising temperature over the past two decades accounts for a 4.5% decline in wheat yields in China while the majority of the wheat yield growth, 64%, comes from increased use of physical inputs. We emphasize the necessity of including such major influencing factors as physical inputs into the crop yield-climate function in order to have an accurate estimation of climate impact on crop yields. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Impact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1356260,"This paper is made to thoroughly investigate the important hydrological features of the flood region mainly in the Damodar river basin which represents the first Indian attempt to treat an entire river system from source to mouth in order to achieve the maximum possible benefits also it has been applied for first time in India for covering the water and land resources. This was the first river valley that was being implemented through a regional development corporation named Damodar Valley Corporataion (DVC). The climatological data are used in the study include temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, radiation, humidity, wind speed and potential transfer evaporation. The paper also includes the stream flow records of the Damodar river catchment up to Durgapur barrage being the outlet point of the DVC System. The long-term hydrological data of five different subcatchments (i.e. Tilaiya, Konar, Maithan, Panchet and Durgapur) have been analysed. The effect of changes in the behaviour of the hydrological factors on the degree of aridity is also assessed. The study clearly indicates significant changes in the hydrological behaviour of the region characterised by an increase in temperature levels and a substantial reduction in rainfall and river flows.",Study on hydrology and drought in the flood region of Damodar River Basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2310749,"This paper interprets the context and implications of a little-known but consequential ideological feud that emerged between rival ""regionalist"" and ""modernist"" camps of architectural practitioners in the south Indian state of Kerala in the 1970s. Beginning with a comparative analysis of the private residences of the key protagonists-the expatriate British Gandhian, Laurie Baker, and J. C. Alexander, an influential modernist and doyen of the architectural profession in post-independence Kerala-the paper explores the contrasting views of both camps as they debated the idea of the modern house. Turning to the architectural historiography of modern India, the over-representation of one camp and the relative invisibility of the other is then examined in the context of the radical cultural and political climate of the 1970s in Kerala. The paper considers how Baker's rise to wider recognition and impact by the end of the 1970s can be understood only by understanding the ""author function"" that Baker satisfied in Kerala society. The paper concludes that the complex network of influences and actors that appear in this specific case study, drawn from the assumed margins of India's modern architectural history, makes the case for a flatter ontology of history, rejecting the existing ""diffusion"" model and enabling buildings and context to speak in equal measure.",Rethinking Indian Modernity From the Margins: Architectural Politics in Thiruvananthapuram in the 1970s,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1290864,"1. Urban forests provide important ecosystem services to city residents, including pollution removal and carbon storage. Climate change and urbanization pose multiple threats to these services. However, how these threats combine to affect urban trees, and thus how to mitigate their effects, remains largely untested because multi-factorial experiments on mature trees are impractical. 2. We used a unique urban warming experiment paired with a laboratory chamber experiment to determine how three of the most potentially damaging factors associated with global change for urban and rural treeswarming, drought, and insect herbivoryaffect growth of Quercus phellos (willow oak), the most commonly planted large shade tree in the southeastern US, which is known for its resilience to these potential stressors. 3. In a previous study, we found that the urban heat island effect was associated with reduced growth of Q.phellos and higher abundance of Parthenolecanium scale insects, key pests of oaks in cities. Here, we tested the hypothesis that tree water stress is the mechanism for these effects of warming. We found evidence that water stress is a major, interactive factor reducing urban tree growth, but found no evidence that water stress is associated with Parthenolecanium survival or abundance. Warming and Parthenolecanium only reduced growth in Q.phellos saplings that were simultaneously water stressed. 4. Synthesis and applications. Across many temperate cities worldwide, urban trees grow less than rural trees. Our results point to water stress as the most likely driver for this pattern. Importantly, we found that water stress both reduces tree growth on its own and exacerbates effects of warming and insect pests on tree growth. Therefore, management strategies targeted at increasing tree hydration in cities may reduce effects of these three key stressors that are expected to intensify with further urbanization and climate change.",Water availability drives urban tree growth responses to herbivory and warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2309627,"Thaw slump activity has recently increased in permafrost areas of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Thaw slumps may influence the stability of infrastructure and impact global biogeochemical cycles. This study presents changes in retrogressive thaw slump in the Beiluhe Region based on interpretation of satellite imagery. Thaw slumping has become widespread in the region over the last ten years. The total number of thaw slumps has increased by 253% and the total affected area increased by 617%. The intensification of thaw slumping in the study region did not increase steadily over the study period, but was rather concentrated during two years: 2010 and 2016. This was mainly attributed to anomalously high air temperatures during the thawing season and abundant precipitation. Initiation of future thaw slumps on QTP will likely similarly be linked to changing trends in anomalous weather events and climate warming. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Recent acceleration of thaw slumping in permafrost terrain of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: An example from the Beiluhe Region,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+372343,"The authors conducted a time-series analysis to estimate the acute effects of high temperature in 6 cities in Korea and to compare thresholds of temperature on daily mortality among the cities. They examined the association between total mortality and the daily mean temperature and heat index during the Summers in Korea from 1994 to 2003. The threshold temperature was estimated to be between 27.0 degrees C and 29.7 degrees C for 4 cities. For a daily mean temperature increase of VC above the thresholds in Seoul, Daegu, Incheon, and Gwangju, estimated percentage increases in daily mortality were 16.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] =14.2-18.4), 9.10 (CI = 5.12-13.2), 7.01 (CI = 4.42-9.66), and 6.73 (CI = 2.47-11.2), respectively. These city-specific threshold temperatures and the magnitude of the effects of hot temperature indicate that any analysis of the impact of climate change should take into account regional differences.","High temperature, heat index, and mortality in 6 major cities in South Korea",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2329186,"Coastal urban expansion will continue to drive further biodiversity losses, if conservation targets for coastal ecosystems are not defined and met. Prioritizing areas for future protected area networks is thus an urgent task in such urbanization-threatened ecosystems. Our aim is to quantify past and future losses of coastal vegetation priority areas due to urbanization and assess the effectiveness of the existing protected area network for conservation. We conduct a prioritization analysis, based on 82 coastal plants, including common and IUCN red list species, in a highly-urbanized but biotically diverse region, in South-Eastern France. We evaluate the role of protected areas, by taking into account both strict and multi-use areas. We assess the impact of past and future urbanization on high priority areas, by combining prioritization analyses and urbanization models. We show that half of the highly diverse areas have already been lost due to urbanization. Remaining top priority areas are also among the most exposed to future urban expansion. The effectiveness of the existing protected area (PA) network is only partial. While strict PAs coincide well with top priority areas, they only represent less than one third of priority areas. The effectiveness of multi-use PAs, such as the Natura 2000 network, also remains limited. Our approach highlights the impact of urbanization on plant conservation targets. By modelling urbanization, we manage to identify those areas where protection could be more efficient to limit further losses. We suggest to use our approach in the future to expand the PA network in order to achieve the 2020 Aichi biodiversity targets. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Prioritizing conservation areas for coastal plant diversity under increasing urbanization,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2343847,"The physical response of lakes to climate warming is regionally variable and highly dependent on individual lake characteristics, making generalizations about their development difficult. To qualify the role of individual lake characteristics in their response to regionally homogeneous warming, we simulated temperature, ice cover, and mixing in four intensively studied German lakes of varying morphology and mixing regime with a one-dimensional lake model. We forced the model with an ensemble of 12 climate projections (RCP4.5) up to 2100. The lakes were projected to warm at 0.10-0.11 degrees C decade(-1), which is 75%-90% of the projected air temperature trend. In simulations, surface temperatures increased strongly in winter and spring, but little or not at all in summer and autumn. Mean bottom temperatures were projected to increase in all lakes, with steeper trends in winter and in shallower lakes. Modelled ice thaw and summer stratification advanced by 1.5-2.2 and 1.4-1.8 days decade(-1) respectively, whereas autumn turnover and winter freeze timing was less sensitive. The projected summer mixed-layer depth was unaffected by warming but sensitive to changes in water transparency. By midcentury, the frequency of ice and stratification-free winters was projected to increase by about 20%, making ice cover rare and shifting the two deeper dimictic lakes to a predominantly monomictic regime. The polymictic lake was unlikely to become dimictic by the end of the century. A sensitivity analysis predicted that decreasing transparency would dampen the effect of warming on mean temperature but amplify its effect on stratification. However, this interaction was only predicted to occur in clear lakes, and not in the study lakes at their historical transparency. Not only lake morphology, but also mixing regime determines how heat is stored and ultimately how lakes respond to climate warming. Seasonal differences in climate warming rates are thus important and require more attention.",Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1556328,"The butterfly fauna of lowland Northern California has exhibited a marked decline in recent years that previous studies have attributed in part to altered climatic conditions and changes in land use. Here, we ask if a shift in insecticide use towards neonicotinoids is associated with butterfly declines at four sites in the region that have been monitored for four decades. A negative association between butterfly populations and increasing neonicotinoid application is detectable while controlling for land use and other factors, and appears to be more severe for smaller-bodied species. These results suggest that neonicotinoids could influence non-target insect populations occurring in proximity to application locations, and highlights the need for mechanistic work to complement long-term observational data.",Increasing neonicotinoid use and the declining butterfly fauna of lowland California,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+374765,"Soil respiration (R-s) is the second-largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux. Although R-s has been extensively studied across a broad range of biomes, there is surprisingly little consensus on how the spatiotemporal patterns of R-s will be altered in a warming climate with changing precipitation regimes. Here, we present a global synthesis R-s data from studies that have manipulated precipitation in the field by collating studies from 113 increased precipitation treatments, 91 decreased precipitation treatments, and 14 prolonged drought treatments. Our meta-analysis indicated that when the increased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% above the ambient level, the soil moisture, R-s,R- and the temperature sensitivity (Q(10)) values increased by an average of 17%, 16%, and 6%, respectively, and the soil temperature decreased by -1.3%. The greatest increases in R-s and Q(10) were observed in arid areas, and the stimulation rates decreased with increases in climate humidity. When the decreased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% below the ambient level, the soil moisture and R-s values decreased by an average of -14% and -17%, respectively, and the soil temperature and Q(10) values were not altered. The reductions in soil moisture tended to be greater in more humid areas. Prolonged drought without alterations in the amount of precipitation reduced the soil moisture and R-s by -12% and -6%, respectively, but did not alter Q(10). Overall, our synthesis suggests that soil moisture and R-s tend to be more sensitive to increased precipitation in more arid areas and more responsive to decreased precipitation in more humid areas. The responses of R-s and Q(10) were predominantly driven by precipitation-induced changes in the soil moisture, whereas changes in the soil temperature had limited impacts. Finally, our synthesis of prolonged drought experiments also emphasizes the importance of the timing and frequency of precipitation events on ecosystem C cycles. Given these findings, we urge future studies to focus on manipulating the frequency, intensity, and seasonality of precipitation with an aim to improving our ability to predict and model feedback between R-s and climate change.",A cross-biome synthesis of soil respiration and its determinants under simulated precipitation changes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+3237665,"Although we have made great efforts to reduce drought impacts, socio-economic damage has increased in recent years due to climate change, which has led to increasing frequency and intensity of drought. However, a community that has strong resilience to drought can recover, even from a long-lasting extreme drought, without severe damage. In the field of disaster management, resilience is the ability of a community to return to pre-disaster conditions. To ensure the resilience of a community, systematic drought planning is needed. Even though it is not possible to fully eliminate drought impacts, they can be reduced through systematic approaches such as drought planning. Drought planning requires linkages among sectoral and organizational measures to minimize vulnerabilities. In South Korea, water resources management is quite important because annual rainfall is concentrated during the summer monsoon season, so continuous monitoring and drought analysis are needed during the spring dry season. During the last several decades, the paradigm of drought response has changed and various measures have been implemented. This study analyzed the contents of the national drought plan in comparison with the state drought guidelines of the United States and lessons learned from extreme droughts in 2014-2015. In addition, we investigated how to ensure community resilience to droughts, including robustness, redundancy, rapidity, and resourcefulness. In conclusion, we proposed six essential components that form the basic framework of comprehensive regional drought planning in South Korea: monitoring, vulnerability analysis, mitigation, response, management, and updating.",Developing Drought Planning Components to Secure Community Resilience,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+29457,"Stem radial growth responds to environmental conditions, and has been widely used as a proxy to study long-term patterns of tree growth and to assess the impact of environmental changes on growth patterns. In this study, we use a tree ring dataset from the Catalan Ecological and Forest Inventory to study the temporal variability of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stem growth during the 20th century across a relatively large region (Catalonia, NE Spain) close to the southern limit of the distribution of the species. Basal area increment (BAI) was modelled as a function of tree size and environmental variables by means of mixed effects models. Our results showed an overall increase of 84% in Scots pine BAI during the 20th century, consistent with most previous studies for temperate forests. This trend was associated with increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and, possibly, with a general increase in nutrient availability, and we interpreted it as a fertilization effect. Over the same time period, there was also a marked increase in temperature across the study region (0.19 degrees C per decade on average). This warming had a negative impact on radial growth, particularly at the drier sites, but its magnitude was not enough to counteract the fertilization effect. In fact, the substantial warming observed during the 20th century in the study area did not result in a clear pattern of increased summer drought stress because of the large variability in precipitation, which did not show any clear time trend. But the situation may change in the future if temperatures continue to rise and/or precipitation becomes scarcer. Such a change could potentially reverse the temporal trend in growth, particularly at the driest sites, and is suggested in our data by the relative constancy of radial growth after ca. 1975, coinciding with the warmer period. If this situation is representative of other relatively dry, temperate forests, the implications for the regional carbon balance would be substantial.",Twentieth century increase of Scots pine radial growth in NE Spain shows strong climate interactions,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+530071,"We present an assessment of the impacts of a +2 degrees C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts (1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events) in Europe using eleven bias-corrected climate model simulations from CORDEX Europe and three hydrological models. The results show quite contrasted results between northern and southern Europe. Flood magnitudes are expected to increase significantly south of 60 degrees N, except for some regions (Bulgaria, Poland, south of Spain) where the results are not significant. The sign of these changes are particularly robust in large parts of Romania, Ukraine, Germany, France and North of Spain. North of this line, floods are projected to decrease in most of Finland, NW Russia and North of Sweden, with the exception of southern Sweden and some coastal areas in Norway where floods may increase. The results concerning extreme droughts are less robust, especially for drought duration where the spread of the results among the members is quite high in some areas. Anyway, drought magnitude and duration may increase in Spain, France, Italy, Greece, the Balkans, south of the UK and Ireland. Despite some remarkable differences among the hydrological models' structure and calibration, the results are quite similar from one hydrological model to another. Finally, an analysis of floods and droughts together shows that the impact of a +2 degrees C global warming will be most extreme for France, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Albania. These results are particularly robust in southern France and northern Spain.",Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a+2 degrees C global warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+134098,"Soil organic matter is important in relation to soil fertility, sustainable agricultural systems, and crop productivity, and there is concern about the level of organic matter in many soils, particularly with respect to global warming. Long-term experiments since 1843 at Rothamsted provide the longest data sets on the effect of soil, crop, manuring, and management on changes in soil organic matter under temperate climatic conditions. The amount of organic matter in soil depends on the input of organic material, its rate of decomposition, the rate at which existing soil organic matter is mineralized, soil texture, and climate. All four factors interact so that the amount of soil organic matter changes, often slowly, toward an equilibrium value specific to the soil type and farming system. For any one cropping system, the equilibrium level of soil organic matter in a clay soil will be larger than that in a sandy soil, and for any one soil type the value will be larger with permanent grass than with continuous arable cropping. Trends in long-term crop yields show that as yield potential has increased, yields are often larger on soils with more organic matter compared to those on soils with less. The effects of nitrogen, improvements in soil phosphorus availability, and other factors are discussed. Benefits from building up soil organic matter are bought at a cost with large losses of both carbon and nitrogen from added organic material. Models for the buildup and decline of soil organic matter, the source and sink of carbon dioxide in soil, are presented. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.",Chapter 1 Soil Organic Matter. Its Importance in Sustainable Agriculture and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1540457,"Near-surface temperature difference (i.e., the difference between land surface skin and 2-m air temperatures-Delta T) drives numerous ecological and biophysical processes on Earth, constituting an essential parameter in process-based Earth System Modeling. Delta T is known to be governed by factors like incoming solar radiation and wind, which vary according to synoptic-scale circulation via horizontal pressure gradient and cloud cover. Delta T is also affected by land surface characteristics and vegetation dynamics. Here we assess the role of seasonality, synoptic-scale circulation, and vegetation dynamics, using satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and latent heat estimates, on the Delta T in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM). Delta T was calculated using land surface temperatures derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and air temperatures measured at 94 meteorological stations in the EM for 2006-2010. The effect of circulation on Delta T is demonstrated for four synoptic categories covering all seasons, showing that the influence of synoptic-scale circulation may be sometimes stronger than that of the seasonal signal in this region. Delta T showed negative relationships with NDVI indicating that vegetation is attenuating the near ground temperature difference, with a gradual effect increasing from southern drylands to the more humid northern vegetated areas in the EM. The relationship between Delta T and NDVI was stronger for specific synoptic classes than for seasonal division, implying the combined role of vegetation cover dynamics and synoptic-scale conditions on Delta T. Findings from this study show promise for continuous spatiotemporal estimations of Delta T from land surface temperature and NDVI satellite data.",Synoptic Circulation Impact on the Near-Surface Temperature Difference Outweighs That of the Seasonal Signal in the Eastern Mediterranean,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+664610,"Understanding the importance of variable local population abundance and the limited potential for dispersal and genetic exchange is crucial for the conservation of many species with limited geographic distribution and specialized habitat requirements. Because of rareity, it is often difficult to study the relative importance of variation in recruitment and survival and their net effect oil population growth. We designed a Survey of natural Populations of endangered Iowa Pleistocene snails (Discus macclintocki) rising the robust mark-recapture design to estimate population size and vital rates. A dense population remained stationary throughout the 6-y study whereas vital rates fluctuated substantially in two Much smaller Populations. In the smaller populations rates of growth varied from sharply increasing to sharply decreasing among years, and changes in estimated recruitment were the primary vital rate influencing these fluctuations. Snails were highly sedentary and sampling at random locations showed that the populations were highly Subdivided within a site. Fluctuations in demographic rates and patchy distribution may provide the basis for substantially different rates of genetic change within and among sites. Although in the short-term, fluctuations in recruitment of these snails may influence local dynamics most substantially, long-term threats of habitat loss or climatic change will likely affect survival of adults and persistence of the populations.",Demographic processes influencing population viability of the Iowa Pleistocene snail (Discus macclintocki),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1486950,"Primary producers respond to climate directly and indirectly due to effects on their consumers. In the temperate coastal ocean, the highly productive brown algae known as kelp have both strong climate and grazer linkages. We analyzed the demographic response of the kelp Pleurophycus gardneri over a 25-year span to determine the interaction between ocean climate indicators and invertebrate infestation rates. Pleurophycus hosts amphipod species that burrow in the stipe, increasing mortality. Although kelp performance is generally greater with more negative values of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and colder seawater temperatures, Pleurophycus showed the opposite pattern. When we compared the 1990s, a period of positive values for the PDO and warmer sea surface temperatures, with the following decade, a period characterized by negative PDO values, we documented a contradictory outcome for proxies of kelp fitness. In the 1990s, Pleurophycus unexpectedly showed greater longevity, faster growth, greater reproductive effort, and a trend toward decreased amphipod infestation compared with the 2006-2012 period. In contrast, the period from 2006 to 2012 showed opposite kelp performance patterns and with a trend toward greater amphipod infestation. Pleurophycus performance metrics suggest that some coastal primary producers will respond differently to climate drivers, particularly if they interact strongly with grazers.","Climate drivers and animal host use determine kelp performance over decadal scales in the kelp Pleurophycus gardneri (Laminariales, Phaeophyceae)",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2460091,"In annual plant species, flowering time is a major adaptive trait that synchronizes the initiation of reproduction with favorable environmental conditions. Here, we aimed at studying the evolution of flowering time in three experimental populations of bread wheat, grown in contrasting environments (Northern to Southern France) for 12 generations. By comparing the distribution of phenotypic and presumably neutral variation, we first showed that flowering time responded to selection during the 12 generations of the experiment. To get insight into the genetic architecture of that trait, we then tested whether the distribution of genetic polymorphisms at six candidate genes, presumably involved in the trait expression, departed from neutral expectation. To that end, we focused on the temporal variation during the course of the experiment, and on the spatial differentiation at the end of the experiment, using previously published methods adapted to our experimental design. Only those genes that were strongly associated with flowering time variation were detected as responding to selection. For genes that had low-to-moderate phenotypic effects, or when there was interaction across different genes, we did not find evidence of selection using methods based on the distribution of temporal or spatial variation. In such cases, it might be more informative to consider multilocus and multiallelic combinations across genes, which could be the targets of selection.",Evolution of flowering time in experimental wheat populations: a comprehensive approach to detect genetic signatures of natural selection.,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3315938,"This study performs a simultaneous evaluation of gradual and abrupt changes in Australian annual maximum (AM) flood data using a modified Mann-Kendall and Pettitt change-point detection test. The results show that AM flood data in eastern Australia is dominated by downward trends. Depending on the significance level and study period under consideration, about 8% to 33% of stations are characterised by significant trends, where over 85% of detected significant trends are downward. Furthermore, the change-point analysis shows that the percentages of stations experiencing one abrupt change in the mean or in the direction of the trend are in the range of 8% to 33%, of which over 50% occurred in 1991, with a mode in 1995. Prominent resemblance between the monotonic trend and change-point analysis results is also noticed, in which a negative shift in the mean is observed at catchments that exhibited downward trends, and a positive shift in the mean is observed in the case of upward trends. Trend analysis of the segmented AM flood series based on their corresponding date indicates an absence of a significant trend, which may be attributed to the false detection of trends when the AM flood data are characterised by a shift in its mean.",Examination of Changes in Flood Data in Australia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2351905,"Species communicating acoustically may develop behavioral responses that aid them to transmit information and overcome signal masking in habitats disturbed by anthropogenic noise. Although many studies have concentrated on road traffic noise, very few studies mentioned effects of low flying airplane flyby noise on the vocal behavior of frogs. We studied the Critically Endangered Pickersgill's Reed frog (Hyperolius pickersgilli) native to the eastern coastal regions of South Africa as a case study. In order to evaluate the call of H. pickersgilli, we compared a site with high levels of airplane flyby noise to a reference site without any airplane activity. Our results show that H. pickersgilli males made changes in both temporal and spectral properties of their call. Males call significantly more during and after an airplane flyby in relation to the call rate before the noise stimulus, but resumed normal call rhythms when measurements were taken 15 min after overflight. We found that males call at higher mean dominant frequencies (df difference = 161.4 Hz, P < 0.05) when exposed to high-intensity airplane flyby noise. In comparison with call rate 5 min before the airplane flyby, males called 12 % more during and 18 % more after the airplane flyby. Although changes in the spectral and temporal properties of the call of H. pickersgilli were observed, this species was actively calling for much longer than any other local species. This is the first study from Africa to report effects of anthropogenic noise on anuran communication.",The effect of airplane noise on frogs: a case study on the Critically Endangered Pickersgill's reed frog (Hyperolius pickersgilli),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2108690,"Chickpea is a valued crop and provides nutritious food for an expanding world population and will become increasingly important with climate change. The nutritional value of chickpea in terms of nutrition and body health has been recently emphasized frequently by nutritionist in health and food area in many countries around the world. Production ranks third after beans with a mean annual production of over 11.5 million tons with most of the production centered in India. Land area devoted to chickpea has increased in recent years and now stands at an estimated 14.56 million hectares. Production per unit area has slowly but steadily increased since 1961 at about 6 kg/ha per annum. Over 2.3 million tons of chickpea enter world markets annually to supplement the needs of countries unable to meet demand through domestic production. Australia, Canada, and Argentina are leading exporters. Chickpea is comprised of Desi and Kabuli types. The Desi type is characterized by relatively small angular seeds with various coloring and sometimes spotted. The Kabuli type is characterized by larger seed sizes that are smoother and generally light colored. Dal is a major use for chickpea in South Asia while hummus is widely popular in many parts of the world. Research efforts at ICRISAT, ICARDA, and national programs have slowly but steadily increased yield potential of chickpea germplasm.","Economic importance of chickpea: Production, value, and world trade",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+264398,"Vegetation greenness, detected using digital photography, is useful for monitoring phenology of plant growth, carbon uptake and water loss at the ecosystem level. Assessing ecosystem phenology by greenness is especially useful in spatially extensive, water-limited ecosystems such as the grasslands of the western United States, where productivity is moisture dependent and may become increasingly vulnerable to future climate change. We used repeat photography and a novel means of quantifying greenness in digital photographs to assess how the individual and combined effects of warming and elevated CO2 impact ecosystem phenology (greenness and plant cover) in a semi-arid grassland over an 8-year period. Climate variability within and among years was the proximate driver of ecosystem phenology. Individual and combined effects of warming and elevated CO2 were significant at times, but mediated by variation in both intra- and interannual precipitation. Specifically, warming generally enhanced plant cover and greenness early in the growing season but often had a negative effect during the middle of the summer, offsetting the early season positive effects. The individual effects of elevated CO2 on plant cover and greenness were generally neutral. Opposing seasonal variations in the effects of warming and less so elevated CO2 cancelled each other out over an entire growing season, leading to no net effect of treatments on annual accumulation of greenness. The main effect of elevated CO2 dampened quickly, but warming continued to affect plant cover and plot greenness throughout the experiment. The combination of warming and elevated CO2 had a generally positive effect on greenness, especially early in the growing season and in later years of the experiment, enhanced annual greenness accumulation. However, interannual precipitation variation had larger effect on greenness, with two to three times greater greenness in wet years than in dry years. Synthesis. Seasonal variation in timing and amount of precipitation governs grassland phenology, greenness and the potential for carbon uptake. Our results indicate that concurrent changes in precipitation regimes mediate vegetation responses to warming and elevated atmospheric CO2 in semi-arid grasslands. Even small changes in vegetation phenology and greenness in response to warming and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, such as those we report here, can have large consequences for the future of grasslands.",Seasonality of soil moisture mediates responses of ecosystem phenology to elevated CO2 and warming in a semi-arid grassland,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+660431,"Modest increases in global temperature have been implicated in causing population extirpations and range shifts in taxa inhabiting colder environs and in ectotherms whose thermoregulation is more closely tied to environmental conditions. Many arid-adapted endotherms already experience conditions at their physiological limits, so it is conceivable that they could be similarly affected by warming temperatures. We explored how climatic variables might influence the apparent survival of the banner-tailed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys spectabilis), a rodent endemic to the Chihuahuan Desert of North America and renowned for its behavioral and physiological adaptations to arid environments. Relative variable weight, strength of variable relationships, and other criteria indicated that summer, diurnal land surface temperature (SD_LST) was the primary environmental driver of apparent survival in these arid-adapted rodents. Higher temperatures had a negative effect on apparent survival, which ranged from 0.15 (SE = 0.04) for subadults to 0.50 (SE = 0.07) for adults. Elevated SD_LST may negatively influence survival through multiple pathways, including increased water loss and energy expenditure that could lead to chronic stress and/or hyperthermia that could cause direct mortality. Land surface temperatures are predicted to increase by as much 6.5A degrees C by 2099, reducing apparent survival of adults to similar to 0.15 in some regions of the species' range, possibly causing a shift in their distribution. The relationship between SD_LST and survival suggests a mechanism whereby physiological tolerances are exceeded resulting in a reduction to individual fitness that may ultimately cause a shift in the species' range over time.",Elevated surface temperature depresses survival of banner-tailed kangaroo rats: will climate change cook a desert icon?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+452141,"Over-exploitation and habitat degradation are the two major drivers of global environmental change and are responsible for local extinctions and declining ecosystem services. Here we compare the top-down effect of exploitation by fishing with the bottom-up influence of habitat loss on fish communities in the most diverse of ecological systems, coral reefs. Using a combination of multivariate techniques and path analyses, we illustrate that the relative importance of coral cover and fishing in controlling fish abundance on remote Fijian reefs varies between species and functional groups. A decline in branching Acropora coral is strongly associated with a decline in abundance of coral-feeding species, and a decrease in coral-associated habitat complexity, which has indirectly contributed to reduced abundance of small-bodied damselfish. In contrast, reduced fishing pressure, brought about by declining human populations and a shift to alternate livelihoods, is associated with increased abundance of some piscivores and fisheries target species. However, availability of prey is controlled by coral-associated habitat complexity and appears to be a more important driver of total piscivore abundance compared with fishing pressure. Effects of both fishing and coral loss are stronger on individual species than functional groups, as variation in the relative importance of fishing or coral loss among species within the same functional group attenuated the impact of either of these potential drivers at the functional level. Overall, fishing continues to have an influence on Fijian fish communities; however, habitat loss is currently the overriding agent of change. The importance of coral loss mediated by climate change is expected to have an increasing contribution to fish community dynamics, particularly in remote locations or where the influence of fishing is waning.",Exploitation and habitat degradation as agents of change within coral reef fish communities,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2361993,"Based on widely used remote sensing ocean net primary production (NPP) datasets, the spatiotemporal variability of NPP is first analyzed over the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Ocean for the period 1998-2016 using the conventional empirical orthogonal function (EOF), the lead-lag correlation and the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) technique. Barnett and Preisendorfer's improved Canonical Correlation Analysis (BPCCA) is also applied to derive covariability patterns of NPP with major forcing factors of the chlorophyll a concentration (Chla), sea surface temperature (SST), sea level anomaly (SLA), ocean rainfall (Rain), sea surface wind (Wind), and current (CUR) under climate changes of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We find that: (1) The first two seasonal EOF modes capture significant temporal and meridional NPP variability differences, as NPP reaches peaks approximately three months later in the western Pacific Ocean than that of in the eastern Indian Ocean. (2) The second and third interannual EOF modes are closely related with ENSO with a two-month lag and synchronous with IOD, respectively, characterized by southwesterly positive anomaly centers during positive IOD years. (3) NPP presents different varying tendencies and similar multiscale oscillation patterns with interannual and interdecadal cycles of 2 3 years, 5 8 years, and 9 19 years in subregions of the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea, the southeastern Indian Ocean, and the northwestern Pacific Ocean. (4) The NPP variability is strongly coupled with negative SST, SLA, and Rain anomalies, as well as positive Chla, Wind and CUR anomalies in general during El Nino/positive IOD years. The results reveal the diversity and complexity of large-scale biophysical interactions in the key Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region, which improves our understanding of ocean productivity, ecosystems, and carbon budgets.",Spatiotemporal Variability of Remote Sensing Ocean Net Primary Production and Major Forcing Factors in the Tropical Eastern Indian and Western Pacific Ocean,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2328974,"In Zambia, anthrax has emerged as a serious disease decimating humans, livestock and wildlife with devastating effects on eco-tourism resulting in the destabilization of major pristine wildlife sanctuaries. Consequently, the thrust of this study was to establish the spatial distribution of anthrax and determine ecological drivers of its recurrence, maintenance and epidemiological linkage to anthropogenic activities. Environmental and biological samples were collected within the livestock production and conservation areas (n = 80). Each sample was serially tested for Bacillus anthracis positivity through blood agar culture and Gram stain technique, and then confirmation by multiplex polymerase chain reaction (MPCR). Questionnaires (n = 113) were conducted at independently distinct villages in terms of space and time. Most respondents showed that animals that died from anthrax were not properly disposed off. More likely than not, poverty being the main driver for anthrax carcass dressing and meat distribution contributed to environmental contamination with anthrax spores in areas where the animals subsequently died resulting in further environmental contamination, which is the major source of primary infection for livestock and wildlife. From the samples, 15 pure isolates of anthrax were obtained which were spatially distributed across four districts. Twelve, biologically plausible variables were found to be highly significant on multivariable logistic regression analysis model for questionnaires which included herd size (odds = 10.46; P = 0.005; CI 8.8-16), carcass disposal method (odds = 6.9; P = 0.001; CI = 3.4-9.8), access to veterinary services (odds = 10.87; P = 0.004; CI = 4.8-15.9) and management system (odds = 2.57; P = 0.001; CI = 1.3-7.5). In summary, the majority (78.7%) of anthrax outbreaks were observed in areas with low veterinary services (chi(2) = 8.6162, P = 0.013) within the newly created districts of Nalolo, Mwandi and Luampa.",Risk mapping and eco-anthropogenic assessment of anthrax in the upper Zambezi basin,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+402165,"Targets for stabilizing climate change are often based on considerations of the impacts of different levels of global warming, usually assessing the time of reaching a particular level of warming. However, some aspects of the Earth system, such as global mean temperatures(1) and sea level rise due to thermal expansion(2) or the melting of large ice sheets(3), continue to respond long after the stabilization of radiative forcing. Here we use a coupled climate-vegetation model to show that in turn the terrestrial biosphere shows significant inertia in its response to climate change. We demonstrate that the global terrestrial biosphere can continue to change for decades after climate stabilization. We suggest that ecosystems can be committed to long-term change long before any response is observable: for example, we find that the risk of significant loss of forest cover in Amazonia rises rapidly for a global mean temperature rise above 2 degrees C. We conclude that such committed ecosystem changes must be considered in the definition of dangerous climate change, and subsequent policy development to avoid it.",Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+730169,"For many species, seasonal changes in key environmental variables such as food availability, light, and temperature drive the timing (""phenology"") of major life-history events. Extensive evidence from terrestrial, freshwater, and marine habitats shows that global warming is changing the timings of many biological events; however, few of these studies have investigated the effects of climate change on the phenology of larval recruitment in marine invertebrates. Here, we studied temperature-related phenological shifts in the breeding season of the shipworm Teredo navalis (Mollusca, Bivalvia). We compared data for the recruitment period of T. navalis along the Swedish west coast during 20042006 with similar data from 1971-1973, and related differences in recruitment timing to changes in sea surface temperature over the same period. We found no significant shift in the timing of onset of recruitment over this similar to 30-year time span, but the end of recruitment was an average of 26 days later in recent years, leading to significantly longer recruitment periods. These changes correlated strongly with increased sea surface temperatures and coincided with published thermal tolerances for reproduction in T. navalis. Our findings are broadly comparable with other reports of phenological shifts in marine species, and suggest that warmer sea surface temperatures are increasing the likelihood of successful subannual reproduction and intensifying recruitment of T. navalis in this region.","A phenological shift in the time of recruitment of the shipworm, Teredo navalis L., mirrors marine climate change",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+357507,"The Barents Sea is a transition zone between North Atlantic and Arctic waters, so its marine ecosystem is highly sensitive to climate dynamics. Understanding of marine biota response to climate changes is necessary to assess the environmental stability and the state of marketable biological resources. These processes are analyzed using a database from the Murmansk Marine Biological Institute which holds oceanographic and hydrobiological data sets collected for more than 100 years along the meridional Kola Transect in the Barents Sea. The data demonstrate high variability in thermal state of the upper layer of the Barents Sea, which is regulated by varying the inflow of Atlantic water and by regional climate. At irregular intervals, cold periods with extended seasonal ice cover are followed by warm periods. The most recent warm period started in the late 1980s and reached its maximum from 2001 to 2006. These cyclic changes in hydrologic regime across the twentieth century and first decade of the twenty-first century are reflected (with a specific lag of 1-5 years) by changes in species composition, as well as abundance and distribution of boreal and arctic groups of macrozoobenthos and fish fauna. For instance, cod and cod fisheries in the Barents Sea are closely linked to the marine climate. Furthermore, Kamchatka crab stock recruitment benefited from the warm climate of 1989 and 1990. In general, studies in this region have shown that climatic dynamics may be assessed using biological indices of abundance, biomass, and migration of marine organisms, including commercial species.",Climate and cyclic hydrobiological changes of the Barents Sea from the twentieth to twenty-first centuries,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+560226,"Recent developments in climate modeling suggest that global warming is likely to favor conditions for the development of droughts in many regions of Europe. Studies evaluating possible changes in drought hazard typically have employed indices that are derived solely from climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, whereas many of the impacts of droughts are more related to hydrological variables such as river flow. This study examines the impact of global warming on streamflow drought in Europe by comparing low-flow predictions of a hydrological model driven by high-resolution regional climate simulations for the end of the previous century and for the end of this century based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario. For both time slices, low-flow characteristics were derived from the simulated streamflow series using extreme value analysis. More specifically, we employed the methods of block maxima and partial duration series to obtain minimum flows and flow deficits and fitted extreme value distributions by the maximum likelihood method. In order not to mix drought events with different physical causes the analysis was performed separately for the frost and nonfrost season. Results show that in the frost-free season streamflow droughts will become more severe and persistent in most parts of Europe by the end of this century, except in the most northern and northeastern regions. In the frost season, streamflow drought conditions will be of less importance under future climate conditions.",Impact of global warming on streamflow drought in Europe,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+449388,"The world's coral reefs are being degraded, and the need to reduce local pressures to offset the effects of increasing global pressures is now widely recognized. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of coral cover, identifies the main drivers of coral mortality, and quantifies the rates of potential recovery of the Great Barrier Reef. Based on the world's most extensive time series data on reef condition (2,258 surveys of 214 reefs over 1985-2012), we show a major decline in coral cover from 28.0% to 13.8% (0.53% y(-1)), a loss of 50.7% of initial coral cover. Tropical cyclones, coral predation by crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), and coral bleaching accounted for 48%, 42%, and 10% of the respective estimated losses, amounting to 3.38% y(-1) mortality rate. Importantly, the relatively pristine northern region showed no overall decline. The estimated rate of increase in coral cover in the absence of cyclones, COTS, and bleaching was 2.85% y(-1), demonstrating substantial capacity for recovery of reefs. In the absence of COTS, coral cover would increase at 0.89% y(-1), despite ongoing losses due to cyclones and bleaching. Thus, reducing COTS populations, by improving water quality and developing alternative control measures, could prevent further coral decline and improve the outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. Such strategies can, however, only be successful if climatic conditions are stabilized, as losses due to bleaching and cyclones will otherwise increase.",The 27-year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1387495,"The influence of climate on the timing of migration of Australian birds is poorly understood, particularly in Western Australia and for waterfowl. This paper examines a new dataset, comprising presence-absence records of 20 species of waterbirds and landbirds at Middlesex, south-western Australia, for the period 1973-2000. Considering only species with sufficient records to determine trends, over this period nine of 19 species (47%) had significantly altered arrival times (five arriving earlier and four later); seven of 17 species (41%) had significant changes in departure dates (four departing later, three earlier); and eight of 17 (47%) species had significantly different season lengths (the period spent at Middlesex, with five spending more time at Middlesex). Generally, changes in the timing of regular seasonal movements were consistent among species that arrived or departed in similar seasons, with species that arrive in spring tending to arrive earlier, while species arriving in autumn and winter arrived later. Trends were generally more pronounced in spring-arriving species, though strong trends were also seen in other seasons. This region experienced significant reductions in the number of rain-days and increased minimum temperature over the study period. For many Middlesex species, particularly waterbirds, precipitation changes appeared to have a greater influence on changes in migration timing than temperature, though some species also appeared to respond to changes in extreme temperatures. This differs from many northern hemisphere studies, where changes in mean, maximum, or minimum temperature were associated with changes in migration timing.",Trends in timing of migration of south-western Australian birds and their relationship to climate,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1458001,"Conifers are evolutionarily more ancient than their angiosperm counterparts, and thus some adaptive mechanisms and features influenced by epigenetic mechanisms appear more highly displayed in these woody gymnosperms. Conifers such as Norway spruce have very long generation times and long life spans, as well as large genome sizes. This seemingly excessive amount of genomic DNA without apparent duplications could be a rich source of sites for epigenetic regulation and modifications. In Norway spruce, an important adaptive mechanism has been identified, called epigenetic memory. This affects the growth cycle of these trees living in environments with mild summers and cold winters, allowing them to adapt rapidly to new and/or changing environments. The temperature during post-meiotic megagametogenesis and seed maturation epigenetically shifts the growth cycle programme of the embryos. This results in significant and long-lasting phenotypic change in the progeny, such as advance or delay of vital phenological processes of high adaptive value, like bud break and bud set. This phenomenon is not only of important evolutionary significance but has clear practical implications for forest seed production and conservation of forest genetic resources. The underlying molecular mechanism that causes the 'memory' in long-lived woody species is currently under investigation. Here we summarize the information related to epigenetic memory regulation in gymnosperms, with special emphasis on conifers. The molecular mechanism behind this is still unknown but transcriptional changes are clearly involved. Epigenetic regulation may be realized through several mechanisms, including DNA methylation, histone modification, chromatin remodelling, small non-coding RNAs and transposable element regulation, of which non-coding RNAs might be one of the most important determinants.",An adaptive epigenetic memory in conifers with important implications for seed production,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+471951,"Many of the largest wildfires in US history burned in recent decades, and climate change explains much of the increase in area burned. The frequency of extreme wildfire weather will increase with continued warming, but many uncertainties still exist about future fire regimes, including how the risk of large fires will persist as vegetation changes. Past fire-climate relationships provide an opportunity to constrain the related uncertainties, and reveal widespread burning across large regions of western North America during past warm intervals. Whether such episodes also burned large portions of individual landscapes has been difficult to determine, however, because uncertainties with the ages of past fires and limited spatial resolution often prohibit specific estimates of past area burned. Accounting for these challenges in a subalpine landscape in Colorado, we estimated century-scale fire synchroneity across 12 lake-sediment charcoal records spanning the past 2,000 y. The percentage of sites burned only deviated from the historic range of variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) between 1,200 and 850 y B.P., when temperatures were similar to recent decades. Between 1,130 and 1,030 y B.P., 83% (median estimate) of our sites burned when temperatures increased similar to 0.5 degrees C relative to the preceding centuries. Lake-based fire rotation during the MCA decreased to an estimated 120 y, representing a 260% higher rate of burning than during the period of dendroecological sampling (360 to -60 y B.P.). Increased burning, however, did not persist throughout the MCA. Burning declined abruptly before temperatures cooled, indicating possible fuel limitations to continued burning.",Medieval warming initiated exceptionally large wildfire outbreaks in the Rocky Mountains,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+209939,"The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is considered a sentinel species for detecting ecological effects of climate change. Pikas are declining within a large portion of their range, but previous studies have focused only on local pika extinction as a metric of change. We designed a procedure which can provide an earlier warning signal, based on non-invasive sampling and analysis of physiological stress in living pikas. Pikas were sampled at several locations in the Rocky Mountains for the measurement of glucocorticoid metabolites (GCMs) in faeces. Using a time series of faecal pellets from 12 individuals, we detected a significant increase in faecal GCM level in response to capture, thus biologically validating the use of a corticosterone enzyme immunoassay. We also established baseline, peak, and post-peak GCM concentrations for pikas in the Rocky Mountains, which varied according to gender and individual. This is the first study to measure stress hormone metabolites in any species of pika. The methods developed and validated in this study can be used to add non-invasive measurements of physiological stress to pika monitoring programmes and other research designed to assess pika vulnerability to predicted changes in climate. Pika monitoring programmes currently in place use a protocol that relates current site use by pikas with data on local habitat characteristics, such as elevation, to infer potential effects of climate change. Data generated by these monitoring studies can be used to identify the trends in site use by pikas in relationship to habitat covariates. However, this approach does not take into account the role of behavioural thermoregulation and the pika's use of microhabitats to ameliorate variations in climate. Incorporating a stress metric, such as GCM concentration, will provide relatively direct evidence for or against the hypothesis that pikas can be stressed by climate regardless of behavioural adaptations.",Stress hormone concentration in Rocky Mountain populations of the American pika (Ochotona princeps),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+207974,"A modelling study was undertaken to quantify effects that the climate likely to prevail in the 2050s might have on water quality in two contrasting UK rivers. In so doing, it pinpointed the extent to which time series of climate model output, for some variables derived following bias correction, are fit for purpose when used as a basis for projecting future water quality. Working at daily time step, the method involved linking regional climate model (HadRM3-PPE) projections, Future Flows Hydrology (rainfall-runoff modelling) and the QUESTOR river network water quality model. In the River Thames, the number of days when temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand and phytoplankton exceeded undesirable values (>25 degrees C, <6mgL(-1), >4mgL(-1) and >0.03mgL(-1), respectively) was estimated to increase by 4.1-26.7 days per year. The changes do not reflect impacts of any possible change in land use or land management. In the River Ure, smaller increases in occurrence of undesirable water quality are likely to occur in the future (by 1.0-11.5 days per year) and some scenarios suggested no change. Results from 11 scenarios of the hydroclimatic inputs revealed considerable uncertainty around the levels of change, which prompted analysis of the sensitivity of the QUESTOR model to simulations of current climate and hydrology. Hydrological model errors were deemed of less significance than those associated with the derivation and downscaling of driving climatic variables (rainfall, air temperature and solar radiation). Errors associated with incomplete understanding of river water quality interactions with the aquatic ecosystem were found likely to be more substantial than those associated with hydrology, but less than those related to climate model inputs. These errors are largely a manifestation of uncertainty concerning the extent to which phytoplankton biomass is controlled by invertebrate grazers, particularly in mid-summer; and the degree to which this varies from year to year. The quality of data from climate models for generating flows and defining driving variables at the extremes of their distributions has been highlighted as the major source of uncertainty in water quality model outputs.",Projections of future deterioration in UK river quality are hampered by climatic uncertainty under extreme conditions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1639699,"The Appalachian region of the United States is a land of contrast-people have suffered from poverty for decades, but the region abounds in natural resources. Appalachian forests support some of the greatest biological diversity in the world’s temperate region, but extraction of its abundant coal reserves has impacted the landscape. Surface mining poses a significant threat to the region via forest loss and fragmentation. Since the implementation of the federal Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) of 1977 (Public Law 95-87), more than 600,000 ha have been mined for coal, and efforts to reforest these areas had historically resulted in high seedling mortality, slow growth, and poor production. Research showed that highly compacted soils with inappropriate chemical characteristics and intense competition from ground cover were the biggest impediments to the establishment of productive forests on surface mines in the eastern United States (Ashby et al. 1978; Burger and Torbert 1997; Graves et al. 2000). Other obstacles for reforesting surface mines included lack of careful selection of a rooting medium for tree roots, selection of tree species that were not suited to site conditions, and improper tree planting techniques. Realizing the significance of these problems, enhanced efforts to address reforestation shortcomings were examined by regulatory, mining, and research groups alike to ensure that forests are restored to the region. Drawing on the recommendations generated by surface mine reclamation research over the past 80 years, a five-step system to reforest coal-mined land called the Forestry Reclamation Approach (FRA) was developed. The steps in the FRA are to (1) create a suitable rooting medium for good tree growth that is no less than 1.2 m deep and comprises topsoil, weathered sandstone, and/or the best available material; (2) loosely grade the topsoil or topsoil substitutes placed on the surface to create a noncompacted growth medium; (3) use native and noncompetitive ground covers that are compatible with growing trees; (4) plant two types of trees-early succession species for wildlife and soil stability and commercially valuable crop trees; and (5) use proper tree planting techniques (Burger et al. 2005). Today, the FRA has been applied by many coal mining firms in the United States, millions of trees have been planted, ecosystem services have been returned to thousands of mined acres and the native Appalachian forest is returning (Zipper et al. 2011b). Successful reestablishment of the hardwood forest ecosystem that once dominated these sites, made possible by FRA, will provide a renewable, sustainable, multiuse resource that will create economic opportunities while enhancing the local and global environment. Although climate, geology, and soils will ultimately dictate agronomic prescriptions for global reforestation projects, the FRA provides a framework for developing a successful reforestation program that may be applied to other mining regions of the world © 2018 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.",Restoring forests on surface coal mines in appalachia: A regional reforestation approach with global application,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1844095,"The hydrological response of mountainous catchments particularly dependent on melting runoff is very vulnerable to climatic variability. This study is an attempt to assess hydrological response towards climatic variability of the Hunza catchment located in the mountainous chain of greater Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region. The hydrological response is analyzed through changes in snowmelt, ice melt and total runoff simulated through the application of the hydrological modeling system PREVAH under hypothetically developed climate change scenarios. The developed scenarios are based on changes in precipitation (Prp) and temperature (Tmp) and their combination. Under all the warmer scenarios, the increase in temperature systematically decreases the mean annual snow melt and increases significantly glacier melt volume. Temperature changes from 1 degrees C to 4 degrees C produce a large increase in spring and summer runoff, while no major variation was observed in the winter and autumn runoff. The maximum seasonal changes recorded under the Tmp+4 degrees C, Prp+10% scenario.",A Hydrological Response Analysis Considering Climatic Variability,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+78065,"Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971-2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade(-1) in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species' phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding months (mean advance of spring/summer by 2.5 days degrees C-1, delay of leaf colouring and fall by 1.0 day degrees C-1). The pattern of observed change in spring efficiently matches measured national warming across 19 European countries (correlation coefficient r=-0.69, P < 0.001).",European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2021617,"Drinking water and burning coal endemic arsenism as a severe disease is confirmed by National Ministry of Health in China in 1992. It is not uniform survey of the disease for the whole country from its report in 1980 in xijiang. Therefore National Ministry of Scientific and Technology in China supports to study on distribution of endemic arsenism in 21 provinces in China, so that it can know the basic distribution of endemic arsenism in China, and the data results will be a guide for the disease prevention and control. The project used environmental epidemiology study including retrospective epidemiology, present situation survey of the disease in severe areas and sampling investigation in unknown areas, collecting data of exposure population and arsenism cases. At the same time, the data of arsenic level in environment were collected, and environment samples were analyzed by standard chemical method. The both data were statistical analysis by access database and SAS procedure in computer. Through the study, it achieves the expected aim that grasps spreading distribution of drinking water arsenism and burning coal arsenism, including arsenic level in water, coal, food and air, as well as patient's condition of the disease at macroscopic. Drinking water endemic arsenism distributed in 8 provinces, 40 counties, affecting 2,343,238 peoples, among 522566 peoples expositing to the drinking water arsenic higher than 0.05 mg/L, and 7821 arsenism patients were diagnosed. Burning coal endemic arsenism spreads in 2 provinces, 8 counties, affecting 333905 peoples, 48438 peoples exposing to high arsenic of burning coal pollution, and 2402 peoples causing chronic arsenic poising by coal burning. Drinking water endemic arsenism: Nemeng, Shanxi is a severe drinking water endemic region also. Wusu city in Xinjiang is old arsenism area, which reformed drinking water to decrease arsenic, so chronic arsenic poisoning condition decreasing. Reforming drinking water measures to decreees arsenic were performed in some areas of Neimeng and Shanxi. On other hand, 1 county of Jilin and 1 county of Ningxia as drinking water arsenism areas were affirmed. 11 counties of Shanyi, 1 Banner of Nemeng, 1 city of Jilin, 1 county of Qinhai and 1 counties of Anhui province were discovered for new drinking water arsenism areas in this survey. Shunyi district of Beijing has high arsenic in drinking water. Otherwise, high arsenic content in drinking water in some areas decreased to lower than 0.05 mg/L, which including some villages of Liaoning province, Tongxing city of Zhejiang province, and Tianzhu village of Shunyi district in Beijing. Blackfoot disease related to high arsenic in drinking water in Taiwan province does not include in this study. Burning coal endemic arsenism: Guizhou province has a typical burning coal arsenism areas in China and world. Although to reform stove and decreasing arsenic pollution, but the chronic arsenic poisoning from domestic coal combustion exists, because it located high seal level and poor areas. Some new burning coal arsenism areas in Shanxi province were found, which produced air pollution and food pollution of arsenic from domestic coal combustion for cooking and heating. The paper summarizes the arsenic distribution levels in drinking water and in environment of burning coal. At the same time, preventive and control measures of endemic arsenism were provided.",[Study on distribution of endemic arsenism in China].,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+675085,"Background: Although controlled laboratory experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the sensitivity of allergenic pollen production to future climatic change tie, increased CO2 and temperature), no in situ data are available. Objective: The purpose of this investigation was to assess, under realistic conditions, the impact of climatic change on pollen production of common ragweed, a ubiquitous weed occurring in disturbed sites and the principal source of pollen associated with seasonal allergenic rhinitis. Methods: We used an existing temperature/CO2 gradient between urban and rural areas to examine the quantitative and qualitative aspects of ragweed growth and pollen production. Results: For 2000 and 200 1, average daily (24-hour) values of CO2 concentration and air temperature within an urban environment were 30% to 31% and 1.8degrees to 2.0degreesC (3.4degrees to 3.6degreesF) higher than those at a rural site. This result is consistent with most global change scenarios. Ragweed grew faster, flowered earlier, and produced significantly greater above-ground biomass and ragweed pollen at urban locations than at rural locations. Conclusions: Here we show that 2 aspects of future global environmental change, air temperature and atmospheric CO2, are already significantly higher in urban relative to rural areas. In general, we show that regional urbanization-induced temperature/CO2 increases similar to those associated with projected global climatic change might already have public health consequences; we suggest that urbanization, per se, might provide a low-cost alternative to current experimental methods evaluating plant responses to climate change. (J Allergy Clin Immunol 2003;111:290-5.).","Cities as harbingers of climate change: Common ragweed, urbanization, and public health",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+260987,"Autumn-winter temperature and precipitation records at 34 stations over New Zealand from 1982 to 1995 are found by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to fluctuate together with 3-6-yr quasi periodicity similar to that associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW), which propagates slowly eastward past New Zealand in its global traverse around the Southern Ocean. By allowing these EOF time sequences to represent New Zealand temperature and precipitation indices, both the positive temperature index related to warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies around New Zealand and the positive precipitation index related to warm (cool) SST anomalies north and east (south and west) of New Zealand are found. These warm (cool) SST anomalies are associated with poleward (equatorward) meridional surface wind (MSW) anomalies, the same as observed in association with the ACW. When warm (cool) SST and poleward (equatorward) MSW anomalies are located north (south) of New Zealand, then anomalous low-level wind convergence occurs over New Zealand, and when they are located east (west) of New Zealand, then anomalous cyclonicity occurs over New Zealand, both during years of anomalously high autumn-winter precipitation over New Zealand. Regular eastward propagation of the ACW past New Zealand suggests that covarying SST and MSW anomalies (and New Zealand autumn-winter temperature and precipitation) can be predicted 1-2 yr into the future. The authors Lest for this by utilizing the eastward propagation of the ACW contained in the dominant extended EOF mode of SST anomalies upstream from New Zealand to predict SST indices in the western South Pacific that are linked statistically to New Zealand temperature and precipitation indices. At 0-yr lead, this statistical climate prediction system nowcasts the observed sign of New Zealand temperature (precipitation) indices 12 (12) years out of the 14-yr record, explaining 50% (62%) of the interannual variance for each index. Ar l-yr lead, it hindcasts the observed sign of New Zealand temperature (precipitation) indices 12 (13) years out the 14-yr record, explaining 24% (74%) of the interannual variance. At 2-yr lead, hindcasting is insignificant. This hindcast skill at l-yr lead suggests that prediction of interannual climate variability over New Zealand may depend more upon predicting the amplitude and phase of the ACW than upon predicting it for tropical ENSO.",Influence of the Antarctic circumpolar wave upon New Zealand temperature and precipitation during autumn-winter,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+273158,"In climate change science, detection is the demonstration that climate has changed in some defined statistical sense. A change is detected in observations if its likelihood of occurrence by random chance due to internal, natural climate variability is small. Attribution is the process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of confidence. Evidence of a human influence on the global climate has accumulated steadily during the past two decades, based on such detection and attribution studies. This paper is a review of detection and attribution studies of Australian climate trends. The major Australian climate trends observed over the past 50 years or so are: Mean maximum (daytime) temperature has increased over most of Australia, with cooling in the northwest (very strong in summer) and along the south coast of Western Australia (in most seasons). Mean minimum (night-time) temperature has increased over nearly all of the country except for cooling in some parts in the inland northwest (in all seasons except spring, although the location of the cooling varies between seasons). Annual rainfall has increased in the northwest (a summer phenomenon), decreased in the southwest (a winter phenomenon) and along and inland from the east coast (Queensland in summer; New South Wales in winter). Pan evaporation has declined about three per cent since the mid-1970s. Detection and attribution studies of Australian climate indicate that: The widespread warming is very likely to be due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations. The rainfall decrease in southwest Western Australia is likely due to a combination of increased greenhouse gas concentrations, natural climate variability and land-use change. The increased summer rainfall in northwest Australia may be due to increased aerosols resulting from human activity, especially in Asia. The apparent decline in pan evaporation is mainly due to changes in instrumental exposure. No study has attributed a cause to the rainfall decrease along the east coast. The highest priority for new detection and attribution studies would appear to be the decline in east coast rainfall, because of the large population and high economic value of this region, the dearth of relevant studies, and the magnitude of the apparent change. A more comprehensive, Australia-wide, formal detection and attribution study to determine bow firmly we can conclude that human activity has affected Australian rainfall in general, is also a high priority.",Detecting and attributing Australian climate change: a review,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+509759,"Up to present, research relating environmental change to human mobility has found out that environmental factors can play a role in migration without being conclusive. Further, in the context of climate change, scholarly literature on migration ranges across a host of climatic stressors and geographies, making it difficult to date to solve the debate whether migration is a form of adaptation or an indicator of limits to adaptation. To address both of these debates, original research was undertaken to answer the question 'under what circumstances do households (HHs) use migration as a risk management strategy when facing rainfall variability and food insecurity?'. This research administered a HH survey (n = 1300) and participatory research (n = 2000 respondents) in districts in eight countries (Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, Bangladesh, India, Thailand, and Vietnam). The findings reveal that the answer to how climatic stressors affect migration decisions and the degree to which migration improves the adaptive capacity of those HHs lie in the vulnerability of the HH and its sensitivity to climatic factors. The data reveal for the first time in a comparable global study distinct HH profiles of 'resilience' and 'vulnerability'. At the same time, the article distinguishes between 'content' migration - rather associated with resilient HHs - and 'erosive' migration - rather associated with vulnerable HHs. However, the article also highlights that there are not always clear cuts but very often grey areas and overlaps among the HHs of the study when applying these typologies. Moreover, the article relates these profiles to an agent-based modelling approach applied in the Tanzania case to explore under what scenarios rainfall variability and food security have the potential to become significant drivers of human mobility in particular regions of the world in the next two to three decades.",Where the rain falls: Evidence from 8 countries on how vulnerable households use migration to manage the risk of rainfall variability and food insecurity,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+180163,"Climate change investigation at a watershed-scale plays a significant role in revealing the historical evolution and future trend of the runoff variation in watershed. This study examines the multisource hydrological and meteorological variables over the source area of the Yellow River (SAYR) from 1961 to 2012 and the future climate scenarios in the region during 2006-2100 based on the CMIP5 projection data. It recognizes the significant characteristics of the recent climate change in the SAYR and predicts the change trend of future flow in the region. It is found that (1) The climate in the SAYR has experienced a significant warm-wet change since the early 2000s, which is very different from the antecedent warm-dry trend since the late 1980s; (2) The warm-wet trend in the northwestern SAYR (the headwater area of the Yellow River (HAYR), is more obvious than that in the whole SAYR; (3) With precipitation increase, the runoff in the region also experienced an increasing process since 2006. The runoff variations in the region are sensitive to the changes of precipitation, PET and maximum air temperature, but not very sensitive to changes in mean and minimum air temperatures; (4) Based on the CMIP5 projection data, the warm-wet climate trend in SAYR are likely to continue until 2049 if considering three different (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and the precipitation in SAYR will not be less than the current level before 2100; however, it is estimated that the recent flow increase in the SAYR is likely to be the decadal change and it will at most continue until the 2020s; (5) The inter-annual variations of the East Asian winter monsoon are found to be closely related to the variations of annual precipitation in the region. Meanwhile, the increased precipitation as well as the increase of potential evapotranspiration (PET) being far less than that of precipitation in the recent period are the main climate causes for the flow increase in the region.",Evidence for a recent warming and wetting in the source area of the Yellow River (SAYR) and its hydrological impacts,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+623192,"Coral reefs have reconstituted themselves after previous large sea-level variations, and climate changes. For the past 6000 years of unusually stable sea-level, reefs have grown without serious interruptions. During recent decades, however, new stresses threaten localized devastation of many reefs. A new period of global climate change is occurring, stimulated by anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. Coral reefs will cope well with predicted sea-level rises of 4.5 cm per decade, but reef islands will not. Higher sea levels will provide corals with greater room for growth across reef flats, but there are no foreseeable mechanisms for reef island growth to keep pace with sea-level rise, therefore many low islands may ultimately become uninhabitable. Climate change will introduce localized variations in weather patterns, but changes to individual reefs cannot be predicted. Reefs on average should cope well with regional climate change, as they have coped with similar previous fluctuations. Air temperature increases of 0.2-0.3 degrees C/decade will induce slower increases in sea-surface temperatures, which may cause localized, or regional increases in coral bleaching. Changes in rainfall will impact on reefs near land masses. Likewise, increased storms and variations in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may stress some reefs, but not others. The greatest impact of climate change will be a synergistic enhancement of direct anthropogenic stresses (excessive sediment and pollution from the land; over-fishing, especially via destructive methods; mining of coral rock and sand; and engineering modifications), which currently cause most damage to coral reefs. Many of the world's reefs have been degraded and more will be damaged as anthropogenic impacts increase under the 'demophoric' increases in population (demos) and economic (phoric) activity. This biotic and habitat loss will result in severe economic and social losses. Reefs, however, have considerable recovery powers and losses can be minimized by effective management of direct human impacts and reducing indirect threats of global climate change.","Global change and coral reefs: Impacts on reefs, economies and human cultures",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+715759,"Strategies for managing biological invasions are often based on the premise that characteristics of invading species and the invaded environment are key predictors of the invader's distribution. Yet, for either biological traits or environmental characteristics to explain distribution, adequate time must have elapsed for species to spread to all potential habitats. We compiled and analyzed a database of natural history and ecological traits of 138 coastal marine invertebrate species, the environmental conditions at sites to which they have been introduced, and their date of first introduction. We found that time since introduction explained the largest fraction (20%) of the variability in non-native range size, while traits of the species and environmental variables had significant, but minimal, influence on non-native range size. The positive relationship between time since introduction and range size indicates that non-native marine invertebrate species are not at equilibrium and are still spreading, posing a major challenge for management of coastal ecosystems.",Invasion Expansion: Time since introduction best predicts global ranges of marine invaders,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+708887,"Ciguatera (fish poisoning) is the most frequent cause of human illness caused by ingestion of marine toxins. The toxins are ingested by herbivorous fish which feed on marine algae and are then passed up the food chain to humans eating reef fish. We have used a unique database of reported fish poisoning cases in the South Pacific islands to investigate the relationship between fish poisoning and El Nino Southern Oscillation, a periodic disruption of global climate that is associated with marked changes in rainfall, temperatures, and ocean currents. This provides an opportunity to study the effects of a strong climate signal on a sensitive ecosystem in a region that has been less subject to local human disturbance than most others. Using a mixed ecological study design, we calculated correlations between reports of fish poisoning in individual Pacific Islands, estimates of local sea surface temperature, and the Southern Oscillation Index. Strong positive correlations between the annual incidence of fish poisoning and local warming of the sea surface were found in a group of islands which experience warming during EI Nino conditions. In another group of islands, which experience cooling of the sea surface during El Nino events, there were weaker negative correlations between fish poisoning and local sea surface temperature. The results are consistent with other evidence suggesting a close interdependence of marine ecosystems and climate. Increases in ciguatera may result if the climate continues to warm as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Coral reefs have been under increasing pressure from human populations in recent years; ciguatera may be a sensitive indicator of environmental disturbance in tropical marine ecosystems.","Ciguatera (fish poisoning), El Nino, and Pacific sea surface temperatures",1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+166496,"Long-term integrity Of existing wells in a CO2-rich environment is essential for ensuring that geological sequestration Of CO2 will be an effective technology for mitigating greenhouse gas-induced climate change The potential for wellbore leakage depends in part on the quality of the original construction as well as geochemical and geomechanical stresses that occur over its life-cycle Field data are essential for assessing the integrated effect of these factors and their impact on wellbore integrity, defined as the maintenance of isolation between subsurface intervals. In this report, we investigate a 30-year-old well from a natural CO2 production reservoir using a suite of downhole and laboratory tests to characterize isolation performance These tests included mineralogical and hydrological characterization of 10 core samples of casing/cement/formation, wireline surveys to evaluate well conditions, fluid samples and an in situ permeability test We find evidence for CO2 migration in the occurrence of carbonated cement and calculate that the effective permeability of an 11'-region of the wellbore barrier system was between 0 5 and 1 milliDarcy Despite these observations, we find that the amount of fluid migration along the wellbore was probably small because of several factors the amount of carbonation decreased with distance from the reservoir, cement permeability was low (0 3-30 microDarcy), the cement-casing and cement-formation interfaces were tight, the casing was not corroded, fluid samples lacked CO2, and the pressure gradient between reservoir and caprock was maintained We conclude that the barrier system has ultimately performed well over the last 3 decades. These results will be used as part of a broader effort to develop a long-term predictive Simulation tool to assess wellbore integrity performance In CO2 storage sites (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved",Wellbore integrity analysis of a natural CO2 producer,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+214939,"Several large-scale climate patterns influenced climate conditions and weather patterns across the globe during 2010. The transition from a warm El Nino phase at the beginning of the year to a cool La Nina phase by July contributed to many notable events, ranging from record wetness across much of Australia to historically low Eastern Pacific basin and near-record high North Atlantic basin hurricane activity. The remaining five main hurricane basins experienced below-to well-below-normal tropical cyclone activity. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation was a major driver of Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns during 2009/10 winter and again in late 2010. It contributed to record snowfall and unusually low temperatures over much of northern Eurasia and parts of the United States, while bringing above-normal temperatures to the high northern latitudes. The February Arctic Oscillation Index value was the most negative since records began in 1950. The 2010 average global land and ocean surface temperature was among the two warmest years on record. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate of lower latitudes. The eastern and tropical Pacific Ocean cooled about 1 C from 2009 to 2010, reflecting the transition from the 2009/10 El Nino to the 2010/11 La Nina. Ocean heat fluxes contributed to warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for the past several years have reached values consistently higher than for all prior times in the record, demonstrating the dominant role of the ocean in the Earth's energy budget. Deep and abyssal waters of Antarctic origin have also trended warmer on average since the early 1990s. Lower tropospheric temperatures typically lag ENSO surface fluctuations by two to four months, thus the 2010 temperature was dominated by the warm phase El Nino conditions that occurred during the latter half of 2009 and early 2010 and was second warmest on record. The stratosphere continued to be anomalously cool. Annual global precipitation over land areas was about five percent above normal. Precipitation over the ocean was drier than normal after a wet year in 2009. Overall, saltier (higher evaporation) regions of the ocean surface continue to be anomalously salty, and fresher (higher precipitation) regions continue to be anomalously fresh. This salinity pattern, which has held since at least 2004, suggests an increase in the hydrological cycle. Sea ice conditions in the Arctic were significantly different than those in the Antarctic during the year. The annual minimum ice extent in the Arctic reached in September was the third lowest on record since 1979. In the Antarctic, zonally averaged sea ice extent reached an all-time record maximum from mid-June through late August and again from mid-November through early December. Corresponding record positive Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode Indices influenced the Antarctic sea ice extents. Greenland glaciers lost more mass than any other year in the decade-long record. The Greenland Ice Sheet lost a record amount of mass, as the melt rate was the highest since at least 1958, and the area and duration of the melting was greater than any year since at least 1978. High summer air temperatures and a longer melt season also caused a continued increase in the rate of ice mass loss from small glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic. Coastal sites in Alaska show continuous permafrost warming and sites in Alaska, Canada, and Russia indicate more significant warming in relatively cold permafrost than in warm permafrost in the same geographical area. With regional differences, permafrost temperatures are now up to 2 C warmer than they were 20 to 30 years ago. Preliminary data indicate there is a high probability that 2010 will be the 20th consecutive year that alpine glaciers have lost mass. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise and ozone depleting substances continued to decrease. Carbon dioxide increased by 2.60 ppm in 2010, a rate above both the 2009 and the 1980-2010 average rates. The global ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2009 transition period from La Nina to El Nino conditions, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, is estimated to be similar to the long-term average. The 2010 Antarctic ozone hole was among the lowest 20% compared with other years since 1990, a result of warmer-than-average temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere during austral winter between mid-July and early September.",STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2010,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+581377,"Aridland ecosystems are predicted to be responsive to both increases and decreases in precipitation. In addition, chronic droughts may contribute to encroachment of native C-3 shrubs into C-4-dominated grasslands. We conducted a long-term rainfall manipulation experiment in native grassland, shrubland and the grass-shrub ecotone in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, USA. We evaluated the effects of 5 years of experimental drought and 4 years of water addition on plant community structure and dynamics. We assessed the effects of altered rainfall regimes on the abundance of dominant species as well as on species richness and subdominant grasses, forbs and shrubs. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling and MANOVA were used to quantify changes in species composition in response to chronic addition or reduction of rainfall. We found that drought consistently and strongly decreased cover of Bouteloua eriopoda, the dominant C-4 grass in this system, whereas water addition slightly increased cover, with little variation between years. In contrast, neither chronic drought nor increased rainfall had consistent effects on the cover of Larrea tridentata, the dominant C-3 shrub. Species richness declined in shrub-dominated vegetation in response to drought whereas richness increased or was unaffected by water addition or drought in mixed- and grass-dominated vegetation. Cover of subdominant shrubs, grasses and forbs changed significantly over time, primarily in response to interannual rainfall variability more so than to our experimental rainfall treatments. Nevertheless, drought and water addition shifted the species composition of plant communities in all three vegetation types. Overall, we found that B. eriopoda responded strongly to drought and less so to irrigation, whereas L. tridentata showed limited response to either treatment. The strong decline in grass cover and the resistance of shrub cover to rainfall reduction suggest that chronic drought may be a key factor promoting shrub dominance during encroachment into desert grassland.",Effects of experimental rainfall manipulations on Chihuahuan Desert grassland and shrubland plant communities,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1627593,"We documented the history of land-use change and migration in eastern Bolivia in five temporal periods: pre-1976, 1976-1986, 1986-1991, 1991-2001, and 2001-2004. We included all land-cover types located below the natural montane tree line (similar to 3000 m), including forest, savanna, scrubland, seasonal wetland, second-growth forest, pasture, and cropland. The rate of land-use change has increased from approximately 4.7 x 10(4) ha/yr in the 1960s to > 2.9 x 10(5) ha/yr in the most recent period. Land-use change was quantified for 10 groups within which cultural traditions and production systems are shared, including three nonmechanized indigenous groups, four mechanized farming groups, two cattle ranching groups, and the forest products sector. Mechanized Cruceno farmers and Andean indigenous colonists were responsible for most land-use change in the 1960s and 1970s; deforestation by the latter group increased to twice that by all other groups during 1986-1991, declined in the 1990s, and then increased again in the most recent period. In the last 15 years, land-use change by agro-industrialists specializing in soybean has become important, and cattle ranching based on cultivated pastures has surpassed land use by all other groups. When the rates of change increased for the three indigenous nonmechanized groups, they tended to decrease for the four nonindigenous mechanized groups, and vice versa.","Total Historical Land-Use Change in Eastern Bolivia: Who, Where, When, and How Much?",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+669013,"A comparative performance analysis was studied on well-known drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and its moisture anomaly index (Orig-Z), and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (SC-PDSI) and its moisture anomaly index (SC-Z)) to determine the most appropriate index for assessing olive (O. europaea L.) yield for oil in seven crop regions (Mugla, AydA +/- n, A degrees zmir, Manisa, BalA +/- kesir, Canakkale, and Bursa) in western Turkey and to evaluate the vulnerability of olive yield for oil to climate change with future projections provided by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research ENSEMBLES project (HadCM3Q0). A series of curvilinear regression-based crop yield models were developed for each of the olive-growing regions based on the drought indices. The crop yield model that performed the best was the SC-PDSI model in Mugla, AydA +/- n, A degrees zmir, and Manisa regions and the PDSI model in Canakkale, BalA +/- kesir, and Bursa regions. The SC-PDSI index-based model described 65%, 62%, 61%, and 62% of the measured variability of olive yield in Mugla, AydA +/- n, A degrees zmir, and Manisa regions, respectively. The PDSI index-based model explained 59%, 58%, and 64% of the measured variability of olive yield in BalA +/- kesir, Canakkale, and Bursa regions, respectively. The vulnerability of the olive yield for oil to HadCM3Q0 future climate projections was evaluated for AydA +/- n and Canakkale regions due to the resolution of the regional climate model. In terms of the future scenarios, the expected decrease in olive yield residuals was 2.5 ton (10(3) trees)(-1) and 1.78 ton (10(3) trees)(-1) in AydA +/- n and Canakkale regions, respectively.",Assessment of future olive crop yield by a comparative evaluation of drought indices: a case study in western Turkey,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1551299,"Investigating the factors that affect intra-annual evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow variability is important to regional hydrological cycles and energy balance research. In this study, ET and streamflow variability (defined as their standard deviations) are attributed to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and total water storage change (TWSC) based on a Budyko-based approach at 282 catchments in China. The results show that the Budyko-based approach satisfactorily simulates the intra-annual ET and streamflow variability (R-2 of 0.63-0.84). The dominant contributor to ET variability is ET under energy-limited condition (aridity index <= 0.76), whereas the dominant contributor is precipitation under equitant (0.76 < aridity index <= 1.35) and water-limited conditions (aridity index 1.35). The contribution of ET0 to ET variability decreases with the aridity index, whereas the contribution of precipitation to ET variability increases with the aridity index. However, the dominant contributor to streamflow variability is precipitation under all the three climate conditions, which is unaffected by the aridity index. TWSC enhances ET variability under energy-limited condition and inhibits ET variability under water-limited and equitant conditions. However, TWSC inhibits streamflow variability under all the three climate conditions. In addition, geography and vegetation also influence the contributors to ET and streamflow variability. The effects of geography on the contributors to streamflow variability are larger than that to ET variability. In contrast, the impacts of vegetation on the contributors to ET variability are larger than that to streamflow variability. This study demonstrates that the mechanism of ET variability under different climate conditions is much more complex than that of streamflow variability, suggesting that more attention should be given to ET for water-energy modeling, hydrological predictions and local water management. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Investigation of factors affecting intra-annual variability of evapotranspiration and streamflow under different climate conditions,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+205188,"In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River basins. We simulated the basin-scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global climate models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), between 2010 and 2060 and assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the region. For the Boise River basin, changes in precipitation ranged from) 3.8 to 36%. Changes in temperature were expected to be between 0.02 and 3.9 degrees C. In the Spokane River region, changes in precipitation were expected to be between) 6.7 and 17.9%. Changes in temperature appeared between 0.1 and 3.5 degrees C over a period of the next five decades between 2010 and 2060. Without bias-correcting the simulated streamflow, in the Boise River basin, change in peak flows (March through June) was projected to range from) 58 to +106 m(3)/s and, for the Spokane River basin, the range was expected to be from) 198 to + 88 m(3)/s. Both the basins exhibited substantial variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and recharge estimates, and this knowledge of possible hydrologic impacts at the watershed scale can help the stakeholders with possible options in their decision-making process.",Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,1.0
+739128,"The increased variability in weather as a manifestation of climate change is expected to have negative impacts on population survival in wildlife species, because it will likely lead to increased variation in vital demographic rates (mortality and reproduction) in these populations. For the effective protection of biodiversity, adaptation measures are needed to compensate for the expected increase in weather variability and the negative interaction with habitat fragmentation. As a case study, we studied the fluctuations in Great Bittern numbers (Botaurus stellaris) from 28 monitoring plots scattered over the Netherlands to explore the interaction between the effect of weather and possible remediating effects of the landscape structure. Great Bittern habitat surrounding these plots differs with respect to area, quality, and degree of isolation of this habitat. In western Europe, Great Bitterns are found to be susceptible to continuous loss of suitable habitat due to vegetation succession and fragmentation. Moreover, year-to-year fluctuations in local Great Bittern populations can be caused by severe winter weather or other weather extremes. Our results show that severe winter weather has indeed a significant negative impact on Great Bittern population growth rates. Furthermore, we found that an increased carrying capacity and spatial cohesion (i.e. inverse of habitat fragmentation) contribute to an increase in mean growth rates over the years. As growth rates are higher in large, well-connected habitats, we argue that recovery from negative effects of, e.g. severe winters on Great Bittern population numbers is enhanced in these less-fragmented habitats. We derived generic adaptation measures for enhancing the recovery rate of populations of species in general: one should invest in more large, well-connected nature areas, not only to diminish the negative effects of habitat fragmentation on wildlife populations, but additionally to reduce the impacts of climatic variability.",Population dynamics of Great Bittern (Botaurus stellaris) in the Netherlands: interaction effects of winter weather and habitat fragmentation,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2320682,"Patagonian grenadier (Macruronus magellanicus) is the most abundant demersal fisheries resource off Chilean Patagonia, and also is a key fisheries species off the south of Argentina and off the Falkland Islands. A Stock Synthesis assessment shows that this stock has declined in abundance off Chile, which has been attributed to a major change in recruitment strength, and subsequent production, after 1999. An assessment is conducted in which the change in recruitment is modelled as a shift in the stock-recruitment relationship. Management Strategy Evaluation is then used to examine the consequences of a mis-match between the assumptions related to recruitment in the assessment used to set the annual total allowable catch (TAC), and those in the operating model that represents the actual situation being managed. A management strategy that does not consider a shift in recruitment resulted in average TAC values of approximately 125,000 t, substantially larger than the sustainable yield of 45,000 t when there is a recruitment shift. A management strategy based on ignoring the shift in recruitment would thus lead to unsustainable catches, with major impacts on the ecosystem as well as the industry and coastal communities reliant on the fishery, if there was an actual shift in recruitment. Management of the fishery has not accounted for a recruitment shift, and annual landings have been consistently lower than the estimated annual TACs. The 2014 landings are similar to the long term TAC estimated by the assessment models under the Shift operating model. The history of the Patagonian grenadier fishery demonstrates the benefits of taking a precautionary approach that accounts for changes in fish productivity (whether climatedriven or otherwise). However, there can be considerable delays before a shift is observed in recruitment estimates or assessment model mis-specification is detected. The need for alternative approaches for providing more timely recruitment information is discussed.",Implications of a climate-induced recruitment shift in the stock assessment of Patagonian grenadier (Macruronus magellanicus) in Chile,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3902773,"The effects of vertical wind shear, radiation, and ice clouds on precipitation associated with the landfall of Typhoon Krosa on 6-8 October 2007 are analyzed based on a series of two-dimensional sensitivity cloud-resolving model simulations. The model is integrated with imposed zonally-uniform vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal temperature and vapor advection from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data. The vertical wind shear impacts mean surface rainfall when the shears are large on 6 and 8 October. The mean surface rainfall on 6 October is reduced by either exclusion, or increase, or reversed direction of vertical wind shear through the slowdown in stratiform rainfall. The mean rain rate on 8 October is decreased by the removal of vertical wind shear through the weakened stratiform rainfall and is increased by the doubled vertical wind shear through the strengthened convective rainfall, and is barely affected by the reserved direction of vertical wind shear. The impacts of vertical wind shear on surface rainfall are stronger than those of cloud radiative processes, but they are weaker than those of ice clouds. The elimination of ice clouds reduces the mean surface rainfall by excluding microphysical effects of ice clouds through the severe damage of stratiform cloud and associated rainfall. © 2010 Elsevier B.V.","Responses of precipitation to vertical wind shear, radiation, and ice clouds during the landfall of Typhoon Krosa (2007)",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2091680,"The protected sites defined under the Marine Conservation Corridor of the Tropical Eastern Pacific (MCCTEP) include most of the endemism and a fraction of the areas of high diversity for reef corals and fishes. Although those areas are connected biologically over distances > 600km, lack of large-scale sampling and attention to taxa other than scleractinian corals has limited the protection of shallow coral reef and coral community habitats in some areas of the Tropical Eastern Pacific (TEP) region, particularly non-offshore islands in Ecuador, Panama and Costa Rica. The newly created Las Perlas marine protected area (1688 km 2), the second largest archipelago in the TEP, fills a regional conservation gap for the protection of reefs and potentially becomes the second highest coral diversity area in the MCCTEP. This study describes the distribution of live coral cover and species alpha-diversity over 307 ha of shallow coral reefs and coral communities in the Las Perlas Archipelago. Nineteen scleractinian and 38 octocorals were observed, including species previously thought to be uncommon. Although coral communities generally had a greater number of species than coral reefs, species richness did not differ between habitats. However, their coral and octocoral composition and benthic makeup (coral cover, macroalgae, sponge, etc.) differed. The reefs had higher live coral cover (61.2%) and lower algal cover (32.5%) than the coral communities (26.0% and 65.7%, respectively). Octocorals were more common in the communities than on the reefs. There was a negative relationship between live coral cover and species richness, low to moderate cover generally coinciding with coral community sites and higher species richness. Areas are recommended for marine reserve zoning within the new Las Perlas marine protected area to ensure the protection of important habitats and maintenance of diversity in the TEP, both highlighting the importance of the southern islands of the archipelago for coral diversity and the northern islands for their high live coral cover. Review of the representativeness of regional coral diversity would facilitate better design of small-scale reserves across the TEP, following comparable survey methods.","Broadening reef protection across the Marine Conservation Corridor of the Eastern Tropical Pacific: Distribution and diversity of reefs in Las Perlas Archipelago, Panama",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1876967,"The Colorado River is a critical water resource that has enabled the development of the southwestern U.S. About 85% of the river's annual runoff volume of originates in the northern half of the watershed, the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Recently, basin-wide water demand has nearly eclipsed supplies, yet population and associated water demands are projected to significantly increase, with the majority of new demand coming from the municipal and industrial sectors. Simultaneously, climate change is expected to cause earlier snowmelt and peak runoff. With these compounding stressors, continued skillful forecasting of warm-season water resources will be critical to mitigate changing conditions. Snow water equivalent (SWE) at key dates during the late winter and spring (e.g., April 1) is widely used in such forecasting because it represents the major water storage term in a snowmelt-dominated system like the UCRB. Snowfall and seasonal snowpacks are likely to be significantly affected by warming temperatures, portending a future where snow may not be as robust an indicator of water supply and drought. Thus, this research addresses the question: How are the key indicators of drought in the UCRB likely to change under a future climate? We seek to assess changes in drought predictability under future climate using downscaled hydrologic simulations driven by CMIP5 ensemble mid-century (2045-2055) projections. We evaluate historical hydrologic simulations from the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model against observations to understand model performance and then applied the hydrologic framework to explore changes in future skill. We find a strong predictive relationship between historical April 1 SWE and streamflow for the May-July period (R=0.82), with similar skill for the model (R=0.88). Despite a persistent negative bias between simulated and observed April SWE (31%), simulated SWE is strongly correlated with observed (R=0.93) indicating the utility of the model to characterize hydrologic behavior and a viable tool to assess future predictability. Mid-century projected streamflows are modestly reduced on average (6.9%), with key reductions occurring during the warm season (13.9% reduced) and peak flow occurring a full month earlier than historic, presenting important challenges for water managers. Finally, the strength of the predictive relationship between SWE and warm-season flow is notably diminished under future climate (R= 0.77) and is consistently diminished during historical and future drought years relative to non-drought years. These results indicate an appreciable challenge for seasonal forecasting to mitigate projected drier conditions and prompting our recommendation for water managers to explore other non-snow-based sources of predictability.",Assessing the Robustness of Snow-Based Drought Indicators in the Upper Colorado River Basin under Future Climate Change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+695527,"The surface air temperatures observed from stations in Antarctica have been shown to have predominantly positive trends that are as high as 0.5 degrees C decade(-1) along the Antarctic Peninsula. To evaluate whether the trends are caused by a local or large-scale phenomenon in the Antarctic region, surface temperatures inferred from infrared satellite data from 1979 to 1998 have been analyzed in combination with data from 21 stations that have long record lengths. The surface temperatures derived from infrared data are coherent spatially and temporally and are shown to agree well with Antarctic station data with a correlation coefficient of 0.98 and a standard deviation of about 3 degrees C. The trend analysis on station data yielded on the average 0.012 +/- 0.008 degrees C yr(-1) and -0.008 +/- 0.025 degrees C yr(-1) for the 45- and 20-yr record, respectively. The latter reasonably agrees with the trend of -0.042 +/- 0.067 degrees C yr(-1) inferred from the satellite 20-yr record. The 20-yr record length is shown to be about the minimum length required for a meaningful trend analysis study. However, interannual fluctuations of the temperatures are large and the 95% confidence level for the satellite trends ranges from -0.177 to 0.094 degrees C yr(-1) for the Antarctic ice sheet. Nevertheless, the observed cooling is intriguing, especially since it is compatible with the observed trend in the sea ice cover. In the sea ice regions, the northernmost positions of the ice edge are shown to be influenced by alternating warm and cold anomalies around the Continent. The pattern of these anomalies is consistent with that of the Antarctic circumpolar wave but with predominantly mode-3 instead of mode-2 wave as reported previously.",Variability and trends in Antarctic surface temperatures from in situ and satellite infrared measurements,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+899960,"Climate change detection and attribution have proven unexpectedly challenging during the 21st century. Earth's global surface temperature increased less rapidly from 2000 to 2015 than during the last half of the 20th century, even though greenhouse gas concentrations continued to increase. A probable explanation is the mitigation of anthropogenic warming by La Nina cooling and declining solar irradiance. Physical climate models overestimated recent global warming because they did not generate the observed phase of La Nina cooling and may also have underestimated cooling by declining solar irradiance. Ongoing scientific investigations continue to seek alternative explanations to account for the divergence of simulated and observed climate change in the early 21st century, which IPCC termed a ""global warming hiatus."" Amplified by media commentary, the suggestions by these studies that ""missing"" mechanisms may be influencing climate exacerbates confusion among policy makers, the public and other stakeholders about the causes and reality of modern climate change. Understanding and communicating the causes of climate change in the next 20 years may be equally challenging. Predictions of the modulation of projected anthropogenic warming by natural processes have limited skill. The rapid warming at the end of 2015, for example, is not a resumption of anthropogenic warming but rather an amplification of ongoing warming by El Nino. Furthermore, emerging feedbacks and tipping points precipitated by, for example, melting summer Arctic sea ice may alter Earth's global temperature in ways that even the most sophisticated physical climate models do not yet replicate. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Climate Forcing",Observation-based detection and attribution of 21st century climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1870068,"This paper analyses the long-term trends of precipitation (amount, days and intensity) in China during the last 50 years, based on the long-term precipitation data from 678 meteorological stations. Using the annual observed data at the main hydrometric stations on China's four largest rivers, the response of river discharge to climate change is analysed using linear regression methodology. It was found that the annual precipitation in the past 50 years has had a noticeably regional dependence. A general rising trend for annual precipitation appears at most stations in the west of China (west of longitude 103 degrees E); the same increasing trend occurs in southeast China (in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Huaihe River watershed and Zhujiang River watershed) and in the western part of northeast China. However, a decreasing trend appears in the middle part of east China and its surrounding regions. The number of precipitation days display a marked decrease in east China, with positive trends in west China. An increasing trend in the daily-averaged precipitation intensity is found in most regions. Such climate change is probably a benefit, easing the drought situation in northwest China. It was found that the river discharge in these regions is increasing markedly. However, the increase of precipitation intensity may lead to a frequent occurrence of floods. The negative trend in precipitation in the semiarid middle part of east China and the positive trend in rainy southeast China bring adverse effects, causing more droughts in the middle of eastern China, and more floods in southeastern China. The serious cut-off of flow during the 1990s in the Yellow River and the frequent flood disasters of the Yangtze River during the last 10 years are the results of precipitation change.","Precipitation trends and their impact on the discharge of China's four largest rivers, 1951-1998",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+301862,"A daily watershed model of the Sacramento River Basin of northern California was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the San Francisco Bay-Delta. To compensate for sparse data, a unique combination of model inputs was developed, including meteorological variables, potential evapotranspiration, and parameters defining hydraulic geometry. A slight decreasing trend of sediment loads and concentrations was statistically significant in the lowest 50% of flows, supporting the observed historical sediment decline. Historical changes in climate, including seasonality and decline of snowpack, contribute to changes in streamflow, and are a significant component describing the mechanisms responsible for the decline in sediment. Several wet and dry hypothetical climate change scenarios with temperature changes of 1.5 degrees C and 4.5 degrees C were applied to the base historical conditions to assess the model sensitivity of streamflow and sediment to changes in climate. Of the scenarios evaluated, sediment discharge for the Sacramento River Basin increased the most with increased storm magnitude and frequency and decreased the most with increases in air temperature, regardless of changes in precipitation. The model will be used to develop projections of potential hydrologic and sediment trends to the Bay-Delta in response to potential future climate scenarios, which will help assess the hydrological and ecological health of the Bay-Delta into the next century.","Characterizing Changes in Streamflow and Sediment Supply in the Sacramento River Basin, California, Using Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF)",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+231147,"This work presents a detailed investigation of the changes in the global pattern of energetics under a prescribed temporal evolution of CO2 concentration as proposed by the A2 IPCC forcing scenario (SRES-A2) using a combination of reanalysis and climate models. A validation climatology is computed using the classic Lorenz energetic formulation, with generation and dissipation components estimated as residuals. The results show a good agreement overall between models and reanalysis for the present day climate, noting that the models generally give more zonal energy and less eddy energy when compared to the reanalysis. Spatial analysis translates the above results as models depicting greater energy associated with the subtropical jet streams than effectively observed. This pattern is observed regardless of season or hemisphere. The projections for future climate scenarios suggest a further increase in the zonal kinetic energy, with a slight average reduction in all other terms. This pattern is seen in association with a substantial decrease in the conversion term mainly associated with sensible heat transport (CA) under a warmer climate. In agreement with recent work in the literature, our results suggest an overall reduction of the global energetics under increasing CO2.",A Space Domain Energetics Study for CO2 Increasing Based on SRES-A2 Emission Scenario,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+670183,"Background: A growing body of evidence points to the emission of greenhouse gases from human activity as a key factor in climate change. This in turn affects human health and wellbeing through consequential changes in weather extremes. At present, little is known about the effects of weather on the health of sub-Saharan African populations, as well as the related anticipated effects of climate change partly due to scarcity of good quality data. We aimed to study the association between weather patterns and daily mortality in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) area during 1999-2009. Methods: Meteorological data were obtained from a nearby weather station in the Nouna HDSS area and linked to mortality data on a daily basis. Time series Poisson regression models were established to estimate the association between the lags of weather and daily population-level mortality, adjusting for time trends. The analyses were stratified by age and sex to study differential population susceptibility. Results: We found profound associations between higher temperature and daily mortality in the Nouna HDSS, Burkina Faso. The short-term direct heat effect was particularly strong on the under-five child mortality rate. We also found independent coherent effects and strong associations between rainfall events and daily mortality, particularly in elderly populations. Conclusion: Mortality patterns in the Nouna HDSS appear to be closely related to weather conditions. Further investigation on cause-specific mortality, as well as on vulnerability and susceptibility is required. Studies on local adaptation and mitigation measures to avoid health impacts from weather and climate change is also needed to reduce negative effects from weather and climate change on population health in rural areas of the sub-Saharan Africa.","Weather and mortality: a 10 year retrospective analysis of the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Burkina Faso",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+792521,"Parameter estimation is a critical step in successful application of dynamic crop models to simulate crop growth and yield under various climatic and management scenarios. Although inverse modeling parameterization techniques significantly improve the predictive capabilities of models, whether these approaches can recover the true parameter values of a specific genotype or cultivar is seldom investigated. In this study, we applied a Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) method to the DSSAT dry bean model to estimate (recover) the genotype-specific parameters (GSPs) of 150 synthetic recombinant inbred lines (RILs) of dry bean. The synthetic parents of the population were assigned contrasting GSP values obtained from a database, and each of these GSPs was associated with several quantitative trait loci. A standard inverse modeling approach that simultaneously estimated all GSPs generated a set of values that could reproduce the original synthetic observations, but many of the estimated GSP values significantly differed from the original values. However, when parameter estimation was carried out sequentially in a stepwise manner, according to the genetically controlled plant development process, most of the estimated parameters had values similar to the original values. Developmental parameters were more accurately estimated than those related to dry mass accumulation. This new approach appears to reduce the problem of equifinality in parameter estimation, and it is especially relevant if attempts are made to relate parameter values to individual genes.",RELIABILITY OF GENOTYPE-SPECIFIC PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR CROP MODELS: INSIGHTS FROM A MARKOV CHAIN MONTE-CARLO ESTIMATION APPROACH,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2316394,"High or low ambient temperatures pose a risk factor for the worsening or onset of psychiatric disorders. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between ambient temperature and psychiatric emergency visits in an urban region in a temperate climate. The daily number of visits to a psychiatric emergency room (PEVs) at Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden and the daily mean temperature were extracted for the study period 1 July 2012 to 31 December 2017. Case-crossover analysis with distributed lag non-linear models was used to analyse the data by season. The warm season was defined as May to August and the cold season as November to February. Shorter lags periods were used for the warm season than the cold season. In the analysis, temperatures at the 95th percentile was associated with 14% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2%, 28%) increase in PEVs at lag 0-3 and 22% (95%CI: 6%, 40%) for lags 0-14 during the warm season, relative to the seasonal minimum effect temperature (MET). During the cold season temperatures at the 5th percentile were associated with 25% (95% CI: -8%, 13%) and 18% (95% CI: -30%, 98%) increase in PEVs at lags 0-14 and 0-21 respectively. We observed an increased number of PEVs at high and low temperatures; however, not to a statistically significant extent for low temperatures. Our findings are similar to what has been found for somatic diseases and in studies of other mental health outcomes in regions with more extreme climates. This merits the inclusion of individuals with psychiatric disorders in awareness planning for climate warning systems.",Ambient Temperature and Associations with Daily Visits to a Psychiatric Emergency Unit in Sweden,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3302038,"Yields decrease when soybean is sown later than recommended in the cool climate of the Tohoku region of Japan. However, the factors responsible for this decrease are not fully understood. We investigated the effects of late sowing on growth, phenological development, yield, yield components, and radiation interception of three soybean cultivars in two consecutive years and analyzed the relationships of those variables with temperature and soil volumetric moisture content (SMC). Averaged across years and cultivars, yields decreased significantly when plants were sown approximately three weeks late. Yield reductions were partially due to reductions in node number per plant, dry matter production, and capture of cumulative irradiance, resulting from slowed canopy development during vegetative and early reproductive stages. The number of seeds per pod was one of the major determinants of the variation in yield. Owing to the delay in sowing date, the reduction in seeds per pod was likely due to low temperatures during the 20 days after seed filling began. Occasional lower SMC during reproductive stages did not affect yield, yield components, and growth parameters. However, these results were obtained from the two years' experiments. Therefore, further investigations of the relationship of yield with temperature and SMC under different years and sites are needed.",Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) Yield Reduction due to Late Sowing as a Function of Radiation Interception and Use in a Cool Region of Northern Japan,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1447490,"Background: West Nile Virus (WNV) is an emerging global health threat. Transmission risk is strongly related to the abundance of mosquito vectors, typically Culex pipiens in Europe. Early-warning predictors of mosquito population dynamics would therefore help guide entomological surveillance and thereby facilitate early warnings of transmission risk. Methods: We analysed an 11-year time series (2001 to 2011) of Cx. pipiens mosquito captures from the Piedmont region of north-western Italy to determine the principal drivers of mosquito population dynamics. Linear mixed models were implemented to examine the relationship between Cx. pipiens population dynamics and environmental predictors including temperature, precipitation, Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and the proximity of mosquito traps to urban areas and rice fields. Results: Warm temperatures early in the year were associated with an earlier start to the mosquito season and increased season length, and later in the year, with decreased abundance. Early precipitation delayed the start and shortened the length of the mosquito season, but increased total abundance. Conversely, precipitation later in the year was associated with a longer season. Finally, higher NDWI early in the year was associated with an earlier start to the season and increased season length, but was not associated with abundance. Proximity to rice fields predicted higher total abundance when included in some models, but was not a significant predictor of phenology. Proximity to urban areas was not a significant predictor in any of our models. Predicted variations in start of the season and season length ranged from one to three weeks, across the measured range of variables. Predicted mosquito abundance was highly variable, with numbers in excess of 1000 per trap per year when late season temperatures were low (average 21 C) to only 150 when late season temperatures were high (average 30 C). Conclusions: Climate data collected early in the year, in conjunction with local land use, can be used to provide early warning of both the timing and magnitude of mosquito outbreaks. This potentially allows targeted mosquito control measures to be implemented, with implications for prevention and control of West Nile Virus and other mosquito borne diseases.",Early warning of West Nile virus mosquito vector: climate and land use models successfully explain phenology and abundance of Culex pipiens mosquitoes in north-western Italy,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+338923,"The Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES LME) has experienced 2 major pressures: fishing and climate. The magnitude and rate of response to these pressures are species-specific and depend on each individual species' behavior, physiology and life histories. Thus, species assemblages can be expected to change as a result of the sum of each individual species' response. In previous studies, distinct species assemblages have been identified in each of the 4 subregions by which the NES LME has traditionally been assessed: Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), Southern New England (SNE), Georges Bank (GB), and Gulf of Maine (GOM). In this study, we confirm that each subregion has a distinct species assemblage, but found that those assemblages are shifting over time. The shift appears to be towards species that prefer warmer water. The result is a species assemblage within each subregion that more closely resembles the historic assemblage found in the adjacent subregion to the south. These shifts have occurred in response to a combination of both fishing and climate, and are highly nonlinear. Therefore, current reductions in fishing pressure may not be adequate to return the system to a more historic species assemblage.",Shifting species assemblages in the Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+20014,"Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species' distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994-1999 and 2003-2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.","Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation, and climate at ecoregional scales",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+638524,"In the marine realm, climate change can affect a variety of physico-chemical properties with wide-ranging biological effects, but the knowledge of how climate change affects benthic distributions is limited and mainly restricted to coastal environments. To project the response of benthic species of a shelf sea (North Sea) to the expected climate change, the distributions of 75 marine benthic species were modelled and the spatial changes in distribution were projected for 2099 based on modelled bottom temperature and salinity changes using the IPCC scenario AIB. Mean bottom temperature was projected to increase between 0.15 and 5.4 degrees C, while mean bottom salinity was projected to moderately increase by 1.7. The spatial changes in species distribution were modelled with Maxent and the direction and extent of these changes Were assessed. The results showed a latitudinal northward shift for 64% of the species (maximum 109 km; brittle star Ophiothrix fragilis) and a southward shift for 36% (maximum 101 km; hermit crab Pagurus prideaux and the associated cloak anemone Adamsia carciniopados; 105 km). The relatively low rates of distributional shifts compared to fish or plankton species were probably influenced by the regional topography. The environmental gradients in the central North Sea along the 50 m depth contour might act as a 'barrier', possibly resulting in a compression of distribution range and hampering further shifts to the north. For 49 species this resulted in a habitat loss up to 100%, while only 11 species could benefit from the warming in terms of habitat gain. Particularly the benthic communities of the southern North Sea, where the strongest temperature increase was projected, would be strongly affected by the distributional changes, since key species showed northward shifts and high rates of habitat loss, with potential ramifications for the functioning of the ecosystem. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Modelling climate change effects on benthos: Distributional shifts in the North Sea from 2001 to 2099,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+583231,"We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 +/- 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) between 1902 and 2009. Using projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional 148 +/- 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 166 +/- 42 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), 175 +/- 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60), or 217 +/- 47 mm SLE (scenario RCP85) during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 +/- 66 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 313 +/- 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), or 424 +/- 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85). Up until approximately 2100, ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 similar to 2050 (RCP26), 2050 similar to 2060 (RCP45), 2070 similar to 2090 (RCP60), or 2070 similar to 2100 (RCP85).",Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+38057,"The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea-level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up similar to 40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean 'carbon pumps' (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice-ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.",IMPACTS OF THE OCEANS ON CLIMATE CHANGE,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+529443,"High-resolution seismic profiles and sediment cores from Lake Ledro combined with soil and riverbed samples from the lake's catchment area are used to assess the recurrence of natural hazards (earthquakes and flood events) in the southern Italian Alps during the Holocene. Two well-developed deltas and a flat central basin are identified on seismic profiles in Lake Ledro. Lake sediments have been finely laminated in the basin since 9000 cal. yr BP and frequently interrupted by two types of sedimentary events (SEs): light-coloured massive layers and dark-coloured graded beds. Optical analysis (quantitative organic petrography) of the organic matter present in soil, riverbed and lacustrine samples together with lake sediment bulk density and grain-size analysis illustrate that light-coloured layers consist of a mixture of lacustrine sediments and mainly contain algal particles similar to the ones observed in background sediments. Light-coloured layers thicker than 1.5 cm in the main basin of Lake Ledro are synchronous to numerous coeval mass-wasting deposits remoulding the slopes of the basin. They are interpreted as subaquatic mass-movements triggered by historical and pre-historical regional earthquakes dated to AD2005, AD1891, AD1045 and 1260, 2545, 2595, 3350, 3815, 4740, 7190, 9185 and 11 495 cal. yr BP. Darkcoloured SEs develop high-amplitude reflections in front of the deltas and in the deep central basin. These beds are mainly made of terrestrial organic matter (soils and lignocellulosic debris) and are interpreted as resulting from intense hyperpycnal flood event. Mapping and quantifying the amount of soil material accumulated in the Holocene hyperpycnal flood deposits of the sequence allow estimating that the equivalent soil thickness eroded over the catchment area reached up to 5mm during the largest Holocene flood events. Such significant soil erosion is interpreted as resulting from the combination of heavy rainfall and snowmelt. The recurrence of flash flood events during the Holocene was, however, not high enough to affect pedogenesis processes and highlight several wet regional periods during the Holocene. The Holocene period is divided into four phases of environmental evolution. Over the first half of the Holocene, a progressive stabilization of the soils present through the catchment of Lake Ledro was associated with a progressive reforestation of the area and only interrupted during the wet 8.2 event when the soil destabilization was particularly important. Lower soil erosion was recorded during the mid-Holocene climatic optimum (8000-4200 cal. yr BP) and associated with higher algal production. Between 4200 and 3100 cal. yr BP, both wetter climate and human activities within the drainage basin drastically increased soil erosion rates. Finally, from 3100 cal. yr BP to the present-day, data suggest increasing and changing human land use.","Mass-movement and flood-induced deposits in Lake Ledro, southern Alps, Italy: implications for Holocene palaeohydrology and natural hazards",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+36269,"Recurring droughts in the Southern Great Plains of the United States are stressing the landscape, increasing uncertainty and risk in agricultural production, and impeding optimal agronomic management of crop, pasture, and grazing systems. The distinct possibility that the severity of recent droughts may be related to a greenhouse-gas induced climate change introduces new challenges for water resources managers because the intensification of droughts could represent a permanent feature of the future climate. Climate records of the Fort Cobb watershed in central Oklahoma were analyzed to determine if recent decade-long trends in precipitation and air temperature were consistent with climate change projections for central Oklahoma. The historical precipitation record did not reveal any compelling evidence that the recent 20-yr-long decline in precipitation was related to climate change. Also, precipitation projections by global circulation models (GCMs) displayed a flat pattern through the end of the 21st century. Neither observed nor projected precipitation displayed a multidecadal monotonic rising or declining trend consistent with an ongoing warming climate. The recent trend in observed annual precipitation was probably a decade-scale variation not directly related to the warming climate. On the other hand, the observed monotonic warming trend of 0.34 C decade(-1) that started around 1978 is consistent with GCM projections of increasing temperature for central Oklahoma.",Climate Change and Observed Climate Trends in the Fort Cobb Experimental Watershed,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+619073,"Biotic interactions via the struggle for control of energy and the interactive effects of biota with their physical environment characterize Van Valen's Red Queen (VRQ). Here, we review new evidence for and against a VRQ view of the world from studies of increasing temporal and spatial scales. Interactions among biota and with the physical environment are important for generating and maintaining diversity on diverse timescales, but detailed mechanisms remain poorly understood. We recommend directly estimating the effect of biota and the physical environment on ecological and evolutionary processes. Promising approaches for elucidating VRQ include using mathematical modelling, controlled experimental systems, sampling and processes-oriented approaches for analysing data from natural systems, while paying extra attention to biotic interactions discernable from the fossil record.",Red Queen: from populations to taxa and communities,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+283625,"Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high- resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate- related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human- induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.",Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+1287976,"Purpose In view of the consensus that climate change is happening, scientists have documented several findings about Uganda's recent climate, as well as its variability and change. The purpose of this study is to review what has been documented, thus it gives an overview of what is known and seeks to explain the implications of a changing climate, hence what ought to be known to create a climate resilient environment. Design/methodology/approach Terms such as climate, climate change and climate variability were identified in recent peer-reviewed published literature to find recent climate-related literature on Uganda. Findings from independent researchers and consultants are incorporated. Data obtained from rainfall and temperature observations and from COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model-Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CCLM CORDEX) data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) have been used to generate spatial maps, seasonal outputs and projections using GrADS 2.02 and Geographic Information System (GIS) software for visualization. Findings The climate of Uganda is tropical in nature and influenced by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), varied relief, geo-location and inland lakes, among other factors. The impacts of severe weather and climate trends and variability have been documented substantially in the past 20-30 years. Most studies indicated a rainfall decline. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are on the rise, while projections indicate a decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature both in the near and far future. The implication of these changes on society and the economy are discussed herein. Cost of inaction is expected to become huge, given factors like, the growing rate of the population and the slow expanding economy experienced in Uganda. Varied forms of adaptation to the impacts of climate change are being implemented, especially in the agricultural sector and at house hold level, though not systematically. Originality/value This review of scientific research findings aims to create a better understanding of the recent climate change and variability in Uganda and provides a baseline of summarized information for use in future research and actions.",Climate change and variability: a review of what is known and ought to be known for Uganda,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3305086,"Despite extensive studies of phenological shifts associated with climate change, a few unresolved issues remain. In particular, little is known about the phenological shifts of marine organisms, and simultaneous evaluations of phenological and distributional shifts in reproduction are needed. Chub mackerel Scornber japonicus in the western North Pacific is a small pelagic fish species with its main spawning ground around the Izu Islands. Since its spawning patterns are affected by the sea surface temperature (SST), changes in the spawning time and spawning ground are expected if the SST has increased around the Izu Islands. Here, to elucidate phenological and distributional shifts in reproduction associated with climate change and the underlying causes, we first examined the long-term changes in spawning patterns and spawning ground using a geostatistical model with 40 yr time series data for spawning eggs of chub mackerel in the western North Pacific. We then tested the prediction that increasing SST impacts the timing and distribution of chub mackerel reproduction. We found that the spawning period was extended owing to a delay in the end of spawning. The geographic location of the spawning ground moved northward after the 2000s, and this was probably related to the change in SST. In addition, SST in the spawning ground after the 2000s was not significantly different from the SST in the previous spawning ground. Therefore, the environmental change associated with climate change likely influences phenological and distributional shifts in reproduction simultaneously and underlines the importance of focusing on spatio-temporal changes in reproduction.",Climate change shifts the spawning ground northward and extends the spawning period of chub mackerel in the western North Pacific,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+730838,"The Murray dairy region produces approximately 1.85 billion litres of milk each year, representing about 20 % of Australia's total annual milk production. An ongoing production challenge in this region is the management of the impacts of heat stress during spring and summer. An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events due to climate change may result in additional heat stress and production losses. This paper assesses the changing nature of heat stress now, and into the future, using historical data and climate change projections for the region using the temperature humidity index (THI). Projected temperature and relative humidity changes from two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO MK3.5 and CCR-MIROC-H, have been used to calculate THI values for 2025 and 2050, and summarized as mean occurrence of, and mean length of consecutive high heat stress periods. The future climate scenarios explored show that by 2025 an additional 12-15 days (compared to 1971 to 2000 baseline data) of moderate to severe heat stress are likely across much of the study region. By 2050, larger increases in severity and occurrence of heat stress are likely (i.e. an additional 31-42 moderate to severe heat stress days compared with baseline data). This increasing trend will have a negative impact on milk production among dairy cattle in the region. The results from this study provide useful insights on the trends in THI in the region. Dairy farmers and the dairy industry could use these results to devise and prioritise adaptation options to deal with projected increases in heat stress frequency and severity.","Spatio-temporal modelling of heat stress and climate change implications for the Murray dairy region, Australia",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1285079,"Assessing the relationships between weather patterns and the likelihood of fire occurrence in the Caribbean has not been as central to climate change research as in temperate regions, due in part to the smaller extent of individual fires. However, the cumulative effect of small frequent fires can shape large landscapes, and fire-prone ecosystems are abundant in the tropics. Climate change has the potential to greatly expand fire-prone areas to moist and wet tropical forests and grasslands that have been traditionally less fire-prone, and to extend and create more temporal variability in fire seasons. We built a machine learning random forest classifier to analyze the relationship between climatic, socio-economic, and fire history data with fire occurrence and extent for the years 2003-2011 in Puerto Rico, nearly 35,000 fires. Using classifiers based on climate measurements alone, we found that the climate space is a reliable associate, if not a predictor, of fire occurrence and extent in this environment. We found a strong relationship between occurrence and a change from average weather conditions, and between extent and severity of weather conditions. The probability that the random forest classifiers will rank a positive example higher than a negative example is 0.8-0.89 in the classifiers for deciding if a fire occurs, and 0.64-0.69 in the classifiers for deciding if the fire is greater than 5 ha. Future climate projections of extreme seasons indicate increased potential for fire occurrence with larger extents.",Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+691587,"The alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), which is sensitive to global climate change and human activities, is subjected to addition of nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the soil. The impacts of N or P on ecosystem structure and function depend at least partly on the response of soil fungal communities, although few studies have compared the effects of N and P addition, both separately and together. We examined the responses of composition of the soil fungal community to 3-year experimental nutrient additions (control, N, N plus P, and P) in a typical alpine meadow of the QTP. We found that P addition, regardless of N addition, significantly reduced fungal species richness and changed fungal community composition, while the effect of N was undetectable. Nitrogen plus phosphorus caused a more distinct community than either N or P addition alone. Multivariate regression tree, canonical correspondence analysis, and distance-based multivariate linear model analyses all suggested available P was a key parameter determining the diversity and composition of the fungal community. Other parameters such as dissolved organic N, aboveground net primary productivity of forbs, and dissolved organic C played important but secondary roles. The results indicated an important role of P in structuring soil fungal communities in the alpine meadow. Our results suggest that fungal diversity loss and long-term changes in ecosystem stability can result from fertilization management in the fragile alpine environment.",Composition of the soil fungal community is more sensitive to phosphorus than nitrogen addition in the alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1316676,"Fine roots (< 2 mm) are very dynamic and play a key role in forest ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycling and accumulation. We reviewed root biomass data of three main European tree species European beech, (Fagus sylvatica L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), in order to identify the differences between species, and within and between vegetation zones, and to show the relationships between root biomass and the climatic, site and stand factors. The collected literature consisted of data from 36 beech, 71 spruce and 43 pine stands. The mean fine root biomass of beech was 389 g m(-2), and that of spruce and pine 297 g m(-2) and 277 g m(-2), respectively. Data from pine stands supported the hypothesis that: root biomass is higher in the temperate than in the boreal zone. The results indicated that the root biomass of deciduous trees is higher than that of conifers. The correlations between root biomass and site fertility characteristics seemed to be species specific. There was no correlation between soil acidity and root biomass. Beech fine root. biomass decreased with stand age whereas pine root biomass increased with stand age. Fine root biomass at tree level. correlated better than stand level root biomass with stand characteristics. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the fine root biomass and the above-ground biomass.","Variation in fine root biomass of three]European tree species: Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.), and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.)",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+253842,"Adaptation to climate change often involves long-time frames and uncertainties over the consequences of chosen adaptation measures. In this study, two tools designed for assisting local decision-makers in adaptation planning were tested: socio-economic scenarios and sustainability analysis. The objective was to study whether these tools could be of practical relevance to Swedish municipalities and facilitate local-level climate change adaptation. We found that the municipal planners who participated in the testing generally considered the tools useful and of high relevance, but that more time was needed to use the tools than was provided during the test process. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.",Scenarios and sustainability: Tools for alleviating the gap between municipal means and responsibilities in adaptation planning,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+646004,"Biological reserves are intended to protect species, communities, and ecosystems in human-dominated landscapes. However, existing protected areas represent only relatively small, geographically biased samples of species and habitats. Climate change and habitat loss can exacerbate these biases and the net result is a small, skewed subset of historic environmental conditions. We developed a general model to improve the representation of environmental conditions across the range of at-risk species or any other elements targeted for conservation. We implemented the model as an integer linear-programming problem to select additional areas to complement existing reserves and create new portfolios that are bioclimatically representative across a range of climatic scenarios. We demonstrated the use of the model for a small dataset including two hydrologic variables across the range of five species of fairy shrimp (Anostraca) in the Central Valley ecoregion of California, USA under three climate scenarios. The bioclimatic representation model identified solutions that meet biodiversity representation goals and substantially improve bioclimatic representation at minimal additional cost in terms of total land selected for a conservation portfolio. Additional constraints rewarding bioclimatic representation under two conflicting climate scenarios resulted in only a small decrease in the performance of solutions with respect to current climate. We conclude that this model provides a general tool for improving bioclimatic representation, and results from the Central Valley case study suggest an encouraging, testable hypothesis that climatically robust bioclimatic representation can be achieved at negligible marginal costs. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Selection of bioclimatically representative biological reserve systems under climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3296249,"Actual evapotranspiration (ET) and its individual components' contributions to the water-energy nexus provide insights into our hydrological cycle in a changing climate. Based on long-term satellite ET data assimilated by the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), we analyzed changes in ET and its components over the Nile River Basin from 1980 to 2014. The results show a multi-year mean ET of 518 mmyear(-1). The long-term ET trend showed a decline at a rate of 18.8 mmyear(-10). ET and its components showed strong seasonality and the ET components' contribution to total ET varied in space and time. ET and its components decreased in humid regions, which was related to precipitation deficits. ET increases in arid-semiarid regions were due to water availability from crop irrigation fields in the Nile Plain. Precipitation was the dominant limiting driver of ET in the region. Vegetation transpiration (an average of 78.1% of total ET) dominated the basin's water fluxes, suggesting biological fluxes play a role in the regional water cycle's response to climate change. This analysis furthers our understanding of the water dynamics in the region and may significantly improve our knowledge of future hydrological modelling.",Evapotranspiration and its Components in the Nile River Basin Based on Long-Term Satellite Assimilation Product,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+240305,"Bird populations have declined in many parts of the world but most of those declines can be attributed to effects of human activities (e.g., habitat fragmentation); declines in areas unaffected by human activities are not common. We have been sampling bird populations at an undisturbed site in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador annually since 2001 using a combination of mist nets and direct observations on two 100-ha plots. Bird numbers fluctuated on both plots during the first 8 years but did not show a consistent pattern of change. Since about 2008, numbers of birds on both plots have declined; capture rates in 2014 were similar to 40% less than at the start of the study and observation rates were similar to 50% less. Both understory and canopy species declined in abundance. Overall, insectivores showed the most pronounced declines but declines varied among trophic groups. The period from 2008 onward also was a period of stronger La Nina events which, at this study site, are associated with increased rainfall. The mechanism for the declines is not known but likely reflects a combination of reduced reproductive success coupled with reduced survival associated with changing climate.",Enigmatic declines in bird numbers in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador may be a consequence of climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1539199,"The national resurgence of human West Nile virus (WNV) disease in 2012 raised questions about the factors responsible for WNV outbreaks. Interannual climatic variations may influence WNV amplification and transmission to humans through multiple pathways, including mosquito breeding habitats, gonotrophic cycles, extrinsic incubation, avian communities, and human behavior. We examined the influences of temperature and precipitation anomalies on interannual variation in human WNV cases in three regions of the United States. There were consistent positive influences of winter temperatures, weaker and more variable positive effects of spring and summer temperatures, and highly variable precipitation effects that ranged from positive to negative. The overwintering period may be a particularly important climatic constraint on the dynamics of WNV in cold-temperate regions of North America. Geographic differences in the seasonal timing and relative importance of climatic drivers of WNV risk likely reflect underlying variability in key ecological and social characteristics.",Regional Variation of Climatic Influences on West Nile Virus Outbreaks in the United States,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3944172,"Provenance-progeny test plantations of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) were assessed for survival, height, mean annual increment for volume (MAIV), and fusiform rust infection (caused by Cronartium quercuum [Berk] Miyabe ex Shirai f. sp. fusiforme) at 5, 10 and 15 yr. Each of the 7 sites contained from 6 to 15 open-pollinated families from each of 4 provenances: Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP), Central Florida (CF), Marion County Florida (MCF), and Gulf Coastal Plain (GCP). The main objectives for establishing these trials were to: (1) characterize the genetic architecture among and within these provenances; and (2) determine the relative genetic worth of these provenances for possible inclusion in advanced-generation breeding programs in the Coastal Plain in the southeastern United States. Provenance and family within provenance effects were strong and highly significant for height and MAIV, but only family effects were significant for rust infection. The Florida provenances were the best growers at all ages and at all sites. The poor growth of the Gulf Coastal Plain provenance compared to the Atlantic Coastal Plain provenance could not be explained by climatic or edaphic differences between the regions of origin. We speculate that gene flow from slower growing sources on the western side of the Mississippi River may be at least partly responsible for the poor growth of the GCP loblolly. Because of the relatively stable performance of the provenances and the families within provenances at each site and across ages, selection of superior families for growth and rust resistance between ages 5 and 10 yr should result in substantial genetic gain in the Coastal Plain.",Performance differences and genetic parameters for four coastal provenances of loblolly pine in the Southeastern United States,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1526486,"Hot and cold climates have posed differential threats to human survival throughout history. Cold temperatures can pose direct threats to survival in themselves, whereas hot temperatures may pose threats indirectly through higher prevalence of infectious disease. These differential threats yield convergent predictions for the relationship between more demanding climates and freedom of expression, but divergent predictions for freedom from discrimination.",Cultural adaptations to the differential threats posed by hot versus cold climates,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+562949,"The mountainous areas are generally considered among the least developed and fragile regions. Climate change has exacerbated the effect on livelihood of the mountainous areas, particularly small farmers who are striving hard to adopt the farming practices in accordance with the climate change. Agricultural advisory service in the mountainous areas has always been challenge for the extension workers especially in context of climate change. This paper examined the role of agricultural extension in adaptation to climate change in Kaghan valley of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used for the purpose of data collection. The paper argues that agri. extension department can play a crucial role by creating awareness regarding adaption of best practices regarding climate change, deforestation and planting of trees. There is also need of launching campaign to educate the farmers and to build their resilience to cope with the negative effects of climate change.","ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICES IN ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN HIGHLANDS OF KAGHAN VALLEY, PAKISTAN",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+672727,"Climatic change has often been cited as a determining factor in cultural Changes in the context of the Harappan Civilisation of northwestern South Asia, 2500-1900 BC. While these claims have been critiqued by archaeologists they continue to be accepted by non-archaeologists, including Quaternary scientists. The purpose of this paper is to assess the available evidence and published arguments and to provide a constructive working synthesis of evidence for the palaeoenvironniental setting of northwestern South Asia for the mid- to late Holocene, especially ca 4000-1000cal BC, and its possible connection to important Cultural changes. We conclude that Harappan urbanism emerged on the face of a prolonged trend towards declining rainfall. No climatic event call be blamed for a precipitous end of this civilisation, although strategic local shifts in agriculture that may have begun ill response to prolonged droughts at ca 2200 BC may have contributed to the de-urbanisation process and the restructuring of communities over the following 200-300yr. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Palaeoecology and the Harappan Civilisation of South Asia: a reconsideration,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+727052,"Temporal and spatial variation in the growth parameters skeletal density, linear extension and calcification rate in massive Porites from two nearshore regions of the northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) were examined over a 16-year study period. Calcification rates in massive Porites have declined by approximately 21% in two regions on the GBR similar to 450 km apart. This is a function primarily of a decrease in linear extension (similar to 16%) with a smaller decline in skeletal density (similar to 6%) and contrasts with previous studies on the environmental controls on growth of massive Porites on the GBR. Changes in the growth parameters were linear over time. Averaged across colonies, skeletal density declined over time from 1.32 g cm(-3) (SE = 0.017) in 1988 to 1.25 g cm(-3) (0.013) in 2003, equivalent to 0.36% yr(-1) (0.13). Annual extension declined from 1.52 cm yr(-1) (0.035) to 1.28 cm yr(-1) (0.026), equivalent to 1.02% yr(-1) (0.39). Calcification rates (the product of skeletal density and annual extension) declined from 1.96 g cm(-2) yr(-1) (0.049) to 1.59 g cm(-2) yr(-1) (0.041), equivalent to 1.29% yr(-1) (0.30). Mean annual seawater temperatures had no effect on skeletal density, but a modal effect on annual extension and calcification with maxima at similar to 26.7 degrees C. There were minor differences in the growth parameters between regions. A decline in coral calcification of this magnitude with increasing seawater temperatures is unprecedented in recent centuries based on analysis of growth records from long cores of massive Porites. We discuss the decline in calcification within the context of known environmental controls on coral growth. Although our findings are consistent with studies of the synergistic effect of elevated seawater temperatures and pCO(2) on coral calcification, we conclude that further data on seawater chemistry of the GBR are required to better understand the links between environmental change and effects on coral growth.",Declining coral calcification in massive Porites in two nearshore regions of the northern Great Barrier Reef,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+224672,"Scientific papers published locally in many Asian countries are often inaccessible to researchers elsewhere due to language barriers or omission from international journal databases. This paper provides the first comprehensive review of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on plant and animal species in Japan, drawing extensively from both local and international publications. There were a number of long-term data sets on phenological and distributional changes covering more than five decades. Observed phenology records showed two characteristic trends in Japan; greater shifts of plant phenology in autumn relative to spring and delays in insect appearance dates in spring. Distribution records of insect and marine species indicated poleward range expansions of 18-140 km per decade. Future projections on phenology suggested varied responses between species and possible disruptions in ecosystem functions, while those on distributions indicated potential significant range reductions and changes in species assemblages and diversity. Some of these responses are not in line with the global trends while others show changes of greater magnitude than for other regions, which highlights the importance of region-specific climate change impact assessments. The research recommends that, to improve the evaluation of climate change impacts in countries where the common languages are not English, search efforts should be expanded to include locally available data and publications. This can be facilitated by using country-specific journal databases and increasing collaboration with local researchers. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Ecological impacts of climate change in Japan: The importance of integrating local and international publications,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2315606,"Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species' distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.",Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2272362,"Changes in water resources are mainly affected by the combined effects of anthropogenic activities and climate change. The relative effects of anthropogenic activities and climate on a river basin are investigated to not only understand the hydrological response mechanism in a catchment but also manage local water resources and protect against floods and droughts. In this study, a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model combined with a hydrologic sensitivity analysis was used to quantify the effects of anthropogenic activities and climate change on runoff in the upper reaches of the Hongshui River basin (UHRB). During 1970-2015, the runoff contribution for climate change and anthropogenic activities were 89.2% and 10.8%, respectively. This result suggests that climate is the major driver of runoff variation in the basin. However, during 1990-1999, anthropogenic activities played a decisive role in the reduction in streamflow, and the contribution percentage was 96.35%. Moreover, the impact of anthropogenic activities on runoff changed from positive to negative from the 1980s to the 2000s, and the negative effect showed a continuously increasing trend. Hydrologic sensitivity methods and hydrological modelling produced similar estimates. Our findings emphasize that the impacts of anthropogenic activities such as land use change and the operations of water conservancy projects should be properly managed.","Contributions of climate change and anthropogenic activities to runoff change in the Hongshui River, Southwest China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+478413,"Background: Low levels of relative humidity are known to decrease the lifespan of mosquitoes. However, most current models of malaria transmission do not account for the effects of relative humidity on mosquito survival. In the Sahel, where relative humidity drops to levels <20% for several months of the year, we expect relative humidity to play a significant role in shaping the seasonal profile of mosquito populations. Here, we present a new formulation for Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) mosquito survival as a function of temperature and relative humidity and investigate the effect of humidity on simulated mosquito populations. Methods: Using existing observations on relationships between temperature, relative humidity and mosquito longevity, we developed a new equation for mosquito survival as a function of temperature and relative humidity. We collected simultaneous field observations on temperature, wind, relative humidity, and anopheline mosquito populations for two villages from the Sahel region of Africa, which are presented in this paper. We apply this equation to the environmental data and conduct numerical simulations of mosquito populations using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS). Results: Relative humidity drops to levels that are uncomfortable for mosquitoes at the end of the rainy season. In one village, Banizoumbou, water pools dried up and interrupted mosquito breeding shortly after the end of the rainy season. In this case, relative humidity had little effect on the mosquito population. However, in the other village, Zindarou, the relatively shallow water table led to water pools that persisted several months beyond the end of the rainy season. In this case, the decrease in mosquito survival due to relative humidity improved the model's ability to reproduce the seasonal pattern of observed mosquito abundance. Conclusions: We proposed a new equation to describe Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquito survival as a function of temperature and relative humidity. We demonstrated that relative humidity can play a significant role in mosquito population and malaria transmission dynamics. Future modeling work should account for these effects of relative humidity.",Incorporating the effects of humidity in a mechanistic model of Anopheles gambiae mosquito population dynamics in the Sahel region of Africa,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+268226,"Observations on glacier extent from Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia give a detailed and unequivocal account of rapid shrinkage of tropical Andean glaciers since the Little Ice Age (LIA). This retreat however, was not continuous but interrupted by several periods of stagnant or even advancing glaciers, most recently around the end of the 20th century. New data from mass balance networks established on over a dozen glaciers allows comparison of the glacier behavior in the inner and outer tropics. It appears that glacier variations are quite coherent throughout the region, despite different sensitivities to climatic forcing such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, etc. In parallel with the glacier retreat, climate in the tropical Andes has changed significantly over the past 50-60 years. Temperature in the Andes has increased by approximately 0.1 degrees C/decade, with only two of the last 20 years being below the 1961-90 average. Precipitation has slightly increased in the second half of the 20th century in the inner tropics and decreased in the outer tropics. The general pattern of moistening in the inner tropics and drying in the subtropical Andes is dynamically consistent with observed changes in the large-scale circulation, suggesting a strengthening of the tropical atmospheric circulation. Model projections of future climate change in the tropical Andes indicate a continued warming of the tropical troposphere throughout the 21st century, with a temperature increase that is enhanced at higher elevations. By the end of the 21st century, following the SIZES A2 emission scenario. the tropical Andes may experience a massive warming on the order of 4.5-5 degrees C. Predicted changes in precipitation include an increase in precipitation during the wet season and a decrease during the dry season, which would effectively enhance the seasonal hydrological cycle in the tropical Andes. These observed and predicted changes in climate affect the tropical glacier energy balance through its sensitivity to changes in atmospheric humidity (which governs sublimation), precipitation (whose variability induces a positive feedback on albedo) and cloudiness (which controls the incoming long-wave radiation). In the inner tropics air temperature also significantly influences the energy balance, albeit not through the sensible heat flux, but indirectly through fluctuations in the rain-snow line and hence changes in albedo and net radiation receipts. Given the projected changes in climate, based on different IPCC scenarios for 2050 and 2080, simulations with a tropical glacier-climate model indicate that glaciers will continue to retreat. Many smaller, low-lying glaciers are already completely out of equilibrium with current climate and will disappear within a few decades. But even in catchments where glaciers do not completely disappear, the change in streamflow seasonality, due to the reduction of the glacial buffer during the dry season, will significantly affect the water availability downstream. In the short-term, as glaciers retreat and lose mass, they add to a temporary increase in runoff to which downstream users will quickly adapt, thereby raising serious sustainability concerns. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Climate change and tropical Andean glaciers: Past, present and future",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+1863508,"It is very important to study the hydrological process and the potential change of water resource under future climate scene either in science or in practice. However, no further research on the hydrological process in cold regions due to the high altitude. poor natural environment and rare observing sites at the present time. The upper reach of Yellow River is at northeast part of Tibet Plateau, located between 32 degreesN- 36 degrees25'N and 95 degrees30'E- 103 degrees30'E, and covers approximately 120,000km(2), the average altitude above sea level of which is about 3500 meters. In this study, a macro-scale hydrology model, VIC-3L, via Remote Sensing and GIS, was used to tested and verified by using Tangnaihai and Huangheyan hydrological stations, observed date, then simulated the potential consequences of 2010s, 2030s and 2050s. It is proved that the degradation of permafrost in 2050s had the greatest influence in discharge, the increase of evaporation, which caused by the increase of temperature and the degradation of permafrost, would exceed the increase of precipitation. The discharge reaches the maximum in 2010s under the decrease of temperature 0.1 and the increase of precipitation 22%.","Estimation potential consequences of climate change for water resource via RS, GIS and hydrology model",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+901199,"Effects of global change (i.e. urbanization, climate change) on adult organisms are readily used to predict the persistence of populations. However, effects on embryo survival and patterns of development are less studied, even though embryos are particularly sensitive to abiotic conditions that are altered by global change (e.g. temperature). In reptiles, relatively warm incubation temperatures increase developmental rate and often enhance fitness-relevant phenotypes, but extremely high temperatures cause death. Due to the urban heat island effect, human-altered habitats (i.e. cities) potentially create unusually warm nest conditions that differ from adjacent natural areas in both mean and extreme temperatures. Such vanation may exert selection pressures on embryos. To address this, we measured soil temperatures in places where the Puerto Rican crested anole lizard (Anolis cristatellus) nests in both city and forest habitats. We bred anoles in the laboratory and subjected their eggs to five incubation treatments that mimicked temperature regimes from the field, three of which included brief exposure to extremely high temperatures (i.e. thermal spikes) measured in the city. We monitored growth and survival of hatchlings in the laboratory for 3 months and found that warmer, city temperatures increase developmental rate, but brief, thermal spikes reduce survival. Hatchling growth and survival were unaffected by incubation treatment. The urban landscape can potentially create selection pressures that influence organisms at early (e.g. embryo) and late life stages. Thus, research aimed at quantifying the impacts of urbanization on wildlife populations must include multiple life stages to gain a comprehensive understanding of this important aspect of global change.",Thermal spikes from the urban heat island increase mortality and alter physiology of lizard embryos,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+135809,"Cores from Holocene reefs provided a growth history and species-level identification of corals and demonstrated the most important reef builders during the formation stage. This knowledge is important to determine a principle for reef formation and to provide preservation plans in the near future. A biological and sedimentological study of sediment cores recovered from the Palau Islands and Yoron Island, northwest Pacific, revealed four major facies: corymbose Acropora, arborescent Acropora, massive Porites, and detritus. Species-level observations show that arborescent Acropora (A. muricata and A. intermedia) contributed to reef growth under low- to moderate-energy conditions, whereas corymbose and tabular Acropora (A. digitifera, A. hyacinthus, and A. robusta/A. abrotanoides) and I. palifera were key species for reef formation under high-energy conditions during Holocene sea-level rise and the ensuing period of sea-level stability. Once sea level had stabilized, massive Porites became restricted to areas subjected to low-energy, turbid conditions. These key species are successful corals because the ecological strategy is rapid growth, determinate growth, a high degree of colony integration, strongly resistant to wave action, and rapid local dispersion via fragmentation. Moreover, the western boundary current (Kuroshio) flows along the reefs in the northwest Pacific and it is easy for key species to distribute throughout the region during the period of Holocene sea-level rise and stabilization. These features are a principle for reef formation during sea-level changes. These key species played a significant role in Holocene reef formation in the northwest Pacific; however, coral mortality, caused by climate change, has recently been widely reported. Moreover, the decrease in key species abundance in present-day reefs has been more severe than that in any other species. These geological findings have important implications regarding the appropriate use of coral transplantation and decisions regarding the optimal location and size of marine protected areas. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Key species of hermatypic coral for reef formation in the northwest Pacific during Holocene sea-level change,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3292649,"Urban areas in Sahelian West Africa are highly vulnerable to extreme hydro-meteorological events. In recent years, Burkina Faso has experienced several natural disasters with floods being the most frequent. This study investigates flood trends in Ouagadougou and their relationship to extreme rainfall events. Fourteen rainfall indices were analysed to characterise the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. A frequency analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall series was performed using three statistical distributions. The results showed that few of the rainfall indices have significant trends at 5% level over the period 1961-2015. The generalised extreme value distribution satisfactorily fit the time-series of annual maximum daily rainfall. An analysis of media flood reports revealed that Burkina Faso experienced approximately three flood events per year throughout the period 1986-2016. In the 2000s, the number of flood events increased to five per year. Most flood events are caused by rainfall events with return periods of less than or equal to 5 years. The results indicated that the significant increase in flood risk in Ouagadougou is not only related to heavy rainfall but also due to human and environmental factors.","Trends in flood events and their relationship to extreme rainfall in an urban area of Sahelian West Africa: The case study of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+599173,"Our understanding is limited to how transient changes in glacier response to climate warming will influence the catchment hydrology in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic. This understanding is particularly incomplete for flooding extremes because understanding the frequency of such unusual events requires long records of observation not often available for the Arctic and Sub-Arctic. This study presents a statistical analysis of trends in the magnitude and timing of flood extremes and the mean summer discharge in two sub-arctic catchments, Tarfala and Abisko, in northern Sweden. The catchments have different glacier covers (30% and 1%, respectively). Statistically significant trends (at the 5% level) were identified for both catchments on an annual and on a seasonal scale (3-months averages) using the Mann-Kendall trend test. Stationarity of flood records was tested by analyzing trends in the flood quantiles, using generalized least squares regression. Hydrologic trends were related to observed changes in the precipitation and air temperature, and were correlated with 3-months averaged climate pattern indices (e.g. North Atlantic oscillation). Both catchments showed a statistically significant increase in the annual mean air temperature over the comparison time period of 1985-2009 (Tarfala and Abisko p < 0.01), but did not show significant trends in the total precipitation (Tarfala p = 0.91, Abisko p = 0.44). Despite the similar climate evolution over the studied period in the two catchments, data showed contrasting trends in the magnitude and timing of flood peaks and the mean summer discharge. Hydrologic trends indicated an amplification of the streamflow and flood response in the highly glacierized catchment and a dampening of the response in the non-glacierized catchment. The glacierized mountain catchment showed a statistically significant increasing trend in the flood magnitudes (p = 0.04) that is clearly correlated to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events. It also showed a significant increase in mean summer discharge (p = 0.0002), which is significantly correlated to the decrease in glacier mass balance and the increase in air temperature (p = 0.08). Conversely, the non-glacierized catchment showed a significant decrease in the mean summer discharge (p = 0.01), the flood magnitudes (p = 0.07) and an insignificant trend towards earlier flood occurrences (p = 0.53). These trends are explained by a reduction of the winter snow pack due to higher temperatures in the winter and spring and an increasing soil water storage capacity or catchment storage due to progressively thawing permafrost.",Contrasting trends in floods for two sub-arctic catchments in northern Sweden - does glacier presence matter?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+484698,"Climatic change has significant impacts on snow cover in mid-latitude mountainous regions, in the meantime, spatial and temporal changes of snow cover and snowmelt runoffs are considered as sensitive indicators for climatic change. In this study, the upper Heihe Watershed in the Qilian Mountains was selected as a typical area affected by snow cover and snowmelt runoffs in northwestern China. The changes in air temperatures, precipitation, snowfall and spring snowmelt runoffs were analyzed for the period from 1956 to 2001. The results indicate that climatic warming was apparent, particularly in January and February, but precipitation just fluctuated without a clear trend. The possible changes of snowmelt runoffs in the upper Heihe watershed in response to a warming of 4 degrees C were simulated using Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) based on the degree-day factor algorithm. The results of the simulation indicate that a forward shifting of snow melting season, an increase in water flows in earlier melting season, and a decline in flows in later melting season would occur under a 4 degrees C warming scenario.",Effect of climatic change on snowmelt runoffs in mountainous regions of inland rivers in Northwestern China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+310751,"The limited number and duration of hydrological measurements in the East African Highlands inhibit current understanding of the impact of glacial recession on alpine riverflow. From historical records and surveys conducted in the dry season of 2005 and wet season of 2007, we report (1) recent changes in the terminal positions of large valley glaciers (Speke, Elena) and (2) spot measurements of alpine riverflow along altitudinal transects of the principal river (River Mubuku) draining alpine icefields in order to assess the relative contribution of icefields and underlying ecotones to river discharge. Observed acceleration in the rates of termini retreat of the Speke and Elena glaciers since the late 1960s is attributed, in part, to the convex-concave slope profile in which these valley glaciers reside. We show that current glacial recession has a negligible impact on alpine riverflow. Spot measurements of meltwater discharges indicate that icefields contribute considerably less than 2% of the river discharge at the base of the Rwenzori Mountains during both dry and wet seasons. An anomalously high specific discharge of the River Mubuku (1730 mm a(-1)) arises from high rates of precipitation exceeding 2000 mm a(-1) below alpine icefields within Heath-moss and Montane forest ecotones that occupy more than half of the river's gauged catchment area. For other tropical alpine icefields representing a tiny fraction (<1%) of alpine river catchment areas (e.g. Irian Jaya, Kilimanjaro, Mount Kenya), glacial meltwater discharges are similarly expected to contribute a negligible proportion of alpine riverflow. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Recent glacial recession and its impact on alpine riverflow in the Rwenzori Mountains of Uganda,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+30412,"From 1996 through 2000, the US experienced an unprecedented 2.7% annual reduction in energy intensity. This is three times the rate of the previous 10 years and far higher than the rate projected by traditional energy forecasters. There is increasing data and analysis to support the view that there is a connection between the recent reductions in energy intensity and the astonishing growth in information technology (IT) and the internet economy. Growth in the Internet economy can cut energy intensity in two ways. First, the IT sector is less energy-intensive than traditional manufacturing, so growth in this sector engenders less incremental energy consumption. Second, the internet economy appears to be increasing efficiency in every sector of the economy, which is the primary focus of this paper. The impact of the Internet economy on manufacturing, buildings, and transportation are all explored. The paper also considers the implications for growth in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions during the next 10 years. Also, there has been a widely quoted argument put forward by two analysts, Mark Mills and Peter Huber, that the Internet is using a large and rapidly growing share of the nation's electricity, which in turn is supposedly driving an acceleration of overall US electricity demand. That analysis should be rejected as it is based on seriously faulty analysis and is inconsistent with recent data and analyses. Finally, the Bush administration put forward a new approach to US climate change strategy, based on reducing carbon intensity. This paper suggests that such an approach may not lead to reductions in carbon emissions beyond business as usual trends. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.",The internet and the new energy economy,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+596895,"Egg-burying reptiles need relatively stable temperature and humidity in the substrate surrounding their eggs for successful development and hatchling emergence. Here we show that egg and hatchling mortality of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in northwest Costa Rica were affected by climatic variability (precipitation and air temperature) driven by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Drier and warmer conditions associated with El Nino increased egg and hatchling mortality. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a warming and drying in Central America and other regions of the World, under the SRES A2 development scenario. Using projections from an ensemble of global climate models contributed to the IPCC report, we project that egg and hatchling survival will rapidly decline in the region over the next 100 years by similar to 50-60%, due to warming and drying in northwestern Costa Rica, threatening the survival of leatherback turtles. Warming and drying trends may also threaten the survival of sea turtles in other areas affected by similar climate changes.",Climate Driven Egg and Hatchling Mortality Threatens Survival of Eastern Pacific Leatherback Turtles,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2326678,"Forests are in a permanent state of change due to natural and anthropogenic processes. Long-term time series analysis makes it possible to reconstruct the forest history and perform a multitemporal analysis on the cause and effect of changes. This paper describes an approach for successional stage classification in a tropical forest based on vertical structure variations. Stereophotogrammetry and novel image matching methods are used to produce dense digital surface models (DSMs) from optical images (historical and contemporary). An approach was developed to classify the successional stages of trees using local height variations provided by a DSM and image intensity values. Experiments were performed in a semi-deciduous tropical forest fragment located in the West of Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Six test sample plots and a line transect were established and field surveys were conducted to collect forest variables. These variables were used to characterize and validate five successional classes based on secondary tree species that stratify the forest canopy. The current status of the entire forest fragment was characterized using recent photogrammetric imagery, and a map of historical successional stages was established by analyzing the historical photogrammetric imagery. The investigation demonstrated that the proposed technique can be used to reconstruct the geometric structure of a forest canopy from aerial images. The successional stages can be identified and compared over time using multitemporal photogrammetric imagery and DSMs, which enables an analysis of forest cover changes. The results indicated that the successional stage has changed dramatically during the 50 years period of time.",Identification of Successional Stages and Cover Changes of Tropical Forest Based on Digital Surface Model Analysis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+690700,"We review literature concerning the impacts of climate change on the migration of marine species, with an emphasis on the adaptation of migration phenology through genetic tracking and phenotypic plasticity. We then develop an individual-based modeling framework characterizing the effects of climate change on phenology and population dynamics. In the framework, an animal's ability to match its environmental preferences, its bioclimate envelope, to the environmental conditions by adjusting its migration timing between foraging and breeding habitats determines its condition, survival, and fecundity. Climate-induced changes in the envelope produce timing mismatches that result in a population adapting its phenology through both genetic and plastic processes. Model results suggest: (1) the temporal size of the bioclimate envelope is an important determinant of a population's sensitivity to climate change and susceptibility to extinction, (2) population extinction can occur if the rate of change in the timing of the envelope exceeds the rate its phenology changes or if the variability in the envelope exceeds the population's inherent capacity for variability, (3) a population with migration timing cued by photoperiod is expected to exhibit weaker phenotypic plasticity than one cued by temperature, and (4) population extinction in response to climate change follows a threshold pattern such that population size may not be a reliable indicator of extinction threat, although variability in average individual condition across years may be an extinction threat indicator. Finally, while the model is intentionally simplistic, we discuss how it can be extended to cover more complex interactions. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Modeling climate change impacts on phenology and population dynamics of migratory marine species,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3322939,"Climate-related changes in breeding phenology have been demonstrated across a range of taxonomic groups. Amphibian phenology may be particularly susceptible to environmental variability, but studies have found species- and sometimes population-specific differences in the extent and direction of the phenological response to climate variation. I examined Spotted Salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) phenology metrics over the course of 10 yr to determine whether breeding phenology was sensitive to variation in temperature and precipitation in months immediately preceding or overlapping breeding migration. I examined these relationships for two early-breeding metrics (first arrival and 5% arrival) and one peak-breeding metric (median arrival) to determine whether early and peak breeders respond differently to environmental cues. I found that although there was no linear change in phenology across the 10 yr of this study, there were significant relationships between each of the three phenological metrics and temperature. Specifically, the two early-breeding metrics advanced as February low temperature increased, whereas peak breeding advanced as March low temperature increased. These results suggest that, within the range of variability seen across these 10 yr, temperature is a more important factor than precipitation in Spotted Salamander phenology, and if late winter temperatures eventually increase linearly at this site, then we might expect Spotted Salamander phenology to shift correspondingly. The results also suggest that it may be important to include multiple phenology metrics in future studies so that we can improve our overall understanding of the different layers of climate sensitivity that may exist and compare across studies more effectively.",Climate-Related Correlates of Several Metrics of Breeding Phenology in a Spotted Salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) Population in Ohio,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+413215,"We describe the nature of recent (50 year) rainfall variability in the summer rainfall zone, South Africa, and how variability is recognised and responded to on the ground by farmers. Using daily rainfall data and self-organising mapping (SOM) we identify 12 internally homogeneous rainfall regions displaying differing parameters of precipitation change. Three regions, characterised by changing onset and timing of rains, rainfall frequencies and intensities, in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu Natal provinces, were selected to investigate farmer perceptions of, and responses to, rainfall parameter changes. Village and household level analyses demonstrate that the trends and variabilities in precipitation parameters differentiated by the SOM analysis were clearly recognised by people living in the areas in which they occurred. A range of specific coping and adaptation strategies are employed by farmers to respond to climate shifts, some generic across regions and some facilitated by specific local factors. The study has begun to understand the complexity of coping and adaptation, and the factors that influence the decisions that are taken.",Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+173665,"Patterns of climate-forced range shift in the marine environment are informed by investigating the population dynamics of an ecologically important sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii-Diadematidae) across its newly extended range in Tasmania (southeastern Australia). A growth model of C. rodgersii is developed allowing estimation of a sea urchin age profile and, in combination with abundance data, we correlate the sea urchin population dynamic with respect to environmental signals across the range extension region. Growth patterns did not vary across the extension region; however, there was a strong pattern of decreasing sea urchin age with increasing distance from the historic range. The sequential poleward discovery of the sea urchin, a pattern of declining age and a general poleward reduction in abundance along the eastern Tasmanian coastline are consistent with a model of range extension driven by recent change in patterns of larval dispersal. We explore this hypothesis by correlating C. rodgersii population characteristics with respect to the East Australian Current (EAC), i.e. the chief vector for poleward larval dispersal, and reveal patterns of declining sea urchin age and abundance with increasing distance from this oceanic feature. Furthermore, C. rodgersii is generally limited to sites where average winter temperatures are warmer than the cold threshold for its larval development. Potential dispersal and physiological mechanisms defining the range extension appear to be strongly coupled to the EAC which has undergone recent poleward advance and resulted in coastal warming in eastern Tasmania. Predicted climate change conditions for this region will favour continued population expansion of C. rodgersii not only via atmospheric-forced ocean warming, but also via ongoing intensification of the EAC driving continued poleward supply of larvae and heat.",Climate-driven range extension of a sea urchin: inferring future trends by analysis of recent population dynamics,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+532965,"The aim of the study was to present the current status of the electrical energy market, energy legislation, green house gas emissions, energy consumption trends and future prospects of sustainable development in Greece. The study described current issues relevant to the renewable energy sources (RES) such as the climatic factors that affect the penetration of RES into the Greek energy mix, the current regulation status, the barriers and evaluation of their contribution in the energy balance. The study also investigated the increasing power demand, emissions and energy trends in the residential sector in Greece. The paper evaluated the current status of the building stock, RES and the future energy related prospects of the Aegean Sea islands. The islands were categorized based on energy production cost, heating degree days, building characteristics and natural resources to identify islands with higher and lower renewable energy potentials. The study revealed that the islands with the higher potential energy savings in the residential sector are Lesbos, Lemnos, Samothrace, Chios, Andros, Patmos, Kea and Kimolos while at the same time, Rhodes, Naxos, Amorgos, Syros, Ios and Kythnos are those islands that present the lower potential. The study will help to propose action plans and implementation strategies in terms of residential renewable energy applications in non-grid interconnected islands in Greece. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Overview of challenges, prospects, environmental impacts and policies for renewable energy and sustainable development in Greece",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1283572,"We review recent climate changes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and associated responses of cryospheric, biospheric, and hydrological variables. We focused on surface air temperature, precipitation, seasonal snow cover, mountain glaciers, permafrost, freshwater ice cover, lakes, streamflow, and biological system changes. TP is getting warmer and wetter, and air temperature has increased significantly, particularly since the 1980s. Most significant warming trends have occurred in the northern TP. Slight increases in precipitation have occurred over the entire TP with clear spatial variability. Intensification of surface air temperature is associated with variation in precipitation and decreases in snow cover depth, spatial extent, and persistence. Rising surface temperatures have caused recession of glaciers, permafrost thawing, and thickening of the active layers over the permafrost. Changing temperatures, precipitation, and other climate system components have also affected the TP biological system. In addition, elevation-dependent changes in air temperature, wind speed, and summer precipitation have occurred in the TP and its surroundings in the past three decades. Before projecting multifaceted interactions and process responses to future climate change, further quantitative analysis and understanding of the change mechanisms is required.","Climatic and associated cryospheric, biospheric, and hydrological changes on the Tibetan Plateau: a review",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0
+1480132,"Wildfire suppression management is usually based on fast control of all ignitions, especially in highly populated countries with pervasive values-at-risk. To minimize values-at-risk loss by improving response time of suppression resources it is necessary to anticipate ignitions, which are mainly caused by people. Previous studies have found that human-ignition patterns change spatially and temporally depending on socio-economic activities, hence, the deployment of suppression resources along the year should consider these patterns. However, full suppression capacity is operational only within legally established fire seasons, driven by past events and budgets, which limits response capacity and increases damages out of them. The aim of this study was to assess the temporal definition of fire seasons from the perspective of human-ignition patterns for the case study of Spain, where people cause over 95% of fires. Humans engage in activities that use fire as a tool in certain periods within a year, and in locations linked to specific spatial factors. Geographic variables (population, infrastructures, physiography and land uses) were used as explanatory variables for human-ignition patterns. The changing influence of these geographic variables on occurrence along the year was analysed with day-by-day logistic regression models. Daily models were built for all the municipal units in the two climatic regions in Spain (Atlantic and Mediterranean Spain) from 2002 to 2014, and similar models were grouped within continuous periods, designated as ignition-based seasons. We found three ignition-based seasons in the Mediterranean region and five in the Atlantic zones, not coincidental with calendar seasons, but with a high degree of agreement with current legally designated operational fire seasons. Our results suggest that an additional late-winter-early-spring fire season in the Mediterranean area and the extension of this same season in the Atlantic zone should be re-considered for operational purposes in the future. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Improving fire season definition by optimized temporal modelling of daily human-caused ignitions,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2392721,"Black truffle (Tuber melanosporum Vittad.) cultivation is especially complicated by their environmental requirements. We propose in this paper a distribution model of habitat for Huesca province (Spain). We used conditioning and restricting factors to the presence of the species in territory based on previous ex-Gonperiences, and supported by a broad collection of field samples. Environmental variables can explain the presence/absence of the species in the study area. These variables are classified in three groups according to their nature: climatic, topographic and edaphic. We integrated in a GIS all parameters to unify spatial resolution, and by a multi-criteria decision model weighted them to obtain suitability areas. The weights allocation were assigned in function of their importance to black truffle presence and previous experiences. The combination of environmental variables that are conditioning and restricting the presence of black truffle in territory, generates a cartography of potential habitat distribution at different levels These levels are areas with more or less production ability of black truffle. Results show that 2.75% of province has an optimal aptitude to species development, this number is reduced to 1.62% in potential cultivation. Map was validated with available presences of known truffle locations in study area. © Asociacion Interprofesional para el Desarrollo Agrario. All rights reserved.",A geospatial model for black truffle potential habitat (Tuber melanosporum Vittad.) in Huesca province (Spain),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+18243,"Based on the meteorological and surface runoff data from Xinjiang for the past 50 years, this study examined the temporal-spatial variation characteristics of the air temperature, precipitation and runoff in Xinjiang using nonparametric tests and wavelet analysis. The results indicate that the air temperature declined slightly in Kuche (KC). There were slight increasing trends in Bayinbluk (BYBLK), Alar (ALR) and Yutian (YT). The rest of the meteorological stations all had significant increasing trends. The precipitation showed significant increasing trends in the Altai Mountains, Alashankou (ALSK) and Jinghe (JH) in northern Xinjiang and a slight decreasing trend in Tuoli (TL). The other stations showed slight increasing trends. The annual rate of change of precipitation was greater in the northern mountain area than in the southern plains area. In the Tianshan Mountains, the decreasing trend of precipitation at BYBLK was not statistically significant, while the precipitation in the other stations increased to the high-precipitation areas from two low-precipitation centers, Zhaosu (ZS) and BYBLK. In the Tarim Basin of southern Xinjiang, the increasing trend and increasing rate of precipitation were more significant on the northern margin than they were on the southern margin. With regard to the surface runoff, significant uptrends appeared in Kenswat (KSWT), Dashankou (DSK), Shiliguilank (SLGLK), Xiehela (XHL) and Yzmeilek (YZMLK). Kaqun (KQ) and Wuluwat (WLWT) had slight increases, and Tongguzlek (TGZLK) showed a slight downtrend. The variations in air temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang had significant periods of 4-9 years and 3-10 years, respectively. The periods for the annual runoff were 5-9 years.","Temporal and Spatial Variation in Regional Climate and its Impact on Runoff in Xinjiang, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+741831,"[1] The principal characteristics of the variability of Antarctic sea ice cover as previously described from satellite passive microwave observations are also evident in a systematically calibrated and analyzed data set for 20.2 years (1979-1998). The total Antarctic sea ice extent (concentration >15%) increased by 11,180 +/- 4190 km(2) yr(-1) (0.98 +/- 0.37% (decade)(-1)). The increase in the area of sea ice within the extent boundary is similar (10,860 +/- 3720 km(2) yr(-1) and 1.26 +/- 0.43% (decade)(-1)). Regionally, the trends in extent are positive in the Weddel Sea (1.4 +/- 0.9% (decade)(-1)), Pacific Ocean (2.0 +/- 1.4% (decade)(-1)), and Ross (6.7 +/- 1.1% (decade)(-1)) sectors, slightly negative in the Indian Ocean (-1.0 +/- 1.0% (decade)(-1)), and strongly negative in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector (-9.7 +/- 1.5% (decade)(-1)). For the entire ice pack, ice increases occur in all seasons, with the largest increase during fall. On a regional basis the trends differ season to season. During summer and fall the trends are positive or near zero in all sectors except the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector. During winter and spring the trends are negative or near zero in all sectors except the Ross Sea, which has positive trends in all seasons. Components of interannual variability with periods of about 3-5 years are regionally large but tend to counterbalance each other in the total ice pack. The interannual variability of the annual mean sea ice extent is only 1.6% overall, compared to 6-9% in each of five regional sectors. Analysis of the relation between regional sea ice extents and spatially averaged surface temperatures over the ice pack gives an overall sensitivity between winter ice cover and temperature of -0.7% change in sea ice extent per degree Kelvin. For summer some regional ice extents vary positively with temperature, and others vary negatively. The observed increase in Antarctic sea ice cover is counter to the observed decreases in the Arctic. It is also qualitatively consistent with the counterintuitive prediction of a global atmospheric-ocean model of increasing sea ice around Antarctica with climate warming due to the stabilizing effects of increased snowfall on the Southern Ocean.",Variability of Antarctic sea ice 1979-1998,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1535566,"The West African Monsoon (WAM) is crucial for the socio-economic stability of millions of people living in the Sahel. Severe droughts have ravaged the region in the last three decades of the 20th century, highlighting the need for a better understanding of the WAM dynamics. One of the most dramatic changes in the West African Monsoon (WAM) occurred between 15000-5000 yr BP, when increased summer rainfall led to the so-called ""Green Sahara"" and to a reduction in dust emissions from the region. However, model experiments are unable to fully reproduce the intensification and geographical expansion of the WAM during this period, even when vegetation over the Sahara is considered. Here, we use a fully coupled simulation for 6000 yr BP (Mid-Holocene) in which prescribed Saharan vegetation and dust concentrations are changed in turn. A closer agreement with proxy records is obtained only when both the Saharan vegetation changes and dust decrease are taken into account. The dust reduction strengthens the vegetation-albedo feedback, extending the monsoon's northern limit approximately 500 km further than the vegetation-change case only. We therefore conclude that accounting for changes in Saharan dust loadings is essential for improving model simulations of the WAM during the Mid-Holocene. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.",Impacts of dust reduction on the northward expansion of the African monsoon during the Green Sahara period,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1498211,"Observations of ocean-terminating outlet glaciers in Greenland and West Antarctica(1-6) indicate that their contribution to sea level is accelerating as a result of increased velocity, thinning and retreat(7-11). Thinning has also been reported along the margin of the much larger East Antarctic ice sheet(1), but whether glaciers are advancing or retreating there is largely unknown, and there has been no attempt to place such changes in the context of localized mass loss(7,9) or climatic or oceanic forcing. Here we present multidecadal trends in the terminus position of 175 ocean-terminating outlet glaciers along 5,400 kilometres of the margin of the East Antarctic ice sheet, and reveal widespread and synchronous changes. Despite large fluctuations between glaciers-linked to their size-three epochal patterns emerged: 63 per cent of glaciers retreated from 1974 to 1990, 72 per cent advanced from 1990 to 2000, and 58 per cent advanced from 2000 to 2010. These trends were most pronounced along the warmer western South Pacific coast, whereas glaciers along the cooler Ross Sea coast experienced no significant changes. We find that glacier change along the Pacific coast is consistent with a rapid and coherent response to air temperature and sea-ice trends, linked through the dominant mode of atmospheric variability (the Southern Annular Mode). We conclude that parts of the world's largest ice sheet may be more vulnerable to external forcing than recognized previously.","Rapid, climate-driven changes in outlet glaciers on the Pacific coast of East Antarctica",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+11461,"Disasters are most acutely experienced at the local level (high agreement, robust evidence). The reality of disasters in terms of loss of life and property occurs in local places and to local people. These localized impacts can then cascade to have national and international consequences. In this chapter, local refers to a range of places, social groupings, experience, management, institutions, conditions, and sets of knowledge that exist at a sub-national scale. [5.1] Developing strategies for disaster risk management in the context of climate change requires a range of approaches, informed by and customized to specific local circumstances (high agreement, robust evidence). These differences and the context (national to global, urban to rural) in which they are situated shape local vulnerability and local impacts. [5.1] The impacts of climate extremes and weather events may threaten human security at the local level (high agreement, medium evidence). Vulnerability at the local level is attributed to social, political, and economic conditions and drivers including localized environmental degradation and climate change. Addressing disaster risk and climate extremes at the local level requires attention to much wider issues relating to sustainable development. [5.1] While structural measures provide some protection from disasters, they may also create a false sense of safety (high agreement, robust evidence). Such measures result in increased property development, heightened population density, and more disaster exposure. Current regulations and design levels for structural measures may be inadequate under conditions of climate change. © Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2012.",Managing the risks from climate extremes at the local level,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+338563,"Over the period from 1994 to 2007, air and water temperatures in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) increased while rainfall and river flows declined. Data on the occurrence of stream macroinvertebrate families in bioassessment samples collected in NSW during this period were examined to see whether a biological response to these climatic and hydrological trends could be discerned. Multiple logistic regression was used to test for long-term trends in the probability of detection of individual macroinvertebrate families within the samples, taking account of the latitude, longitude, altitude, hydraulic habitat, time of year and subsampling method associated with each sample. Of the 124 families and family groups tested, 33 had statistically significant increasing trends, 37 had significantly declining trends and 54 had no significant trend; however, many of the last group were seldom collected and their trend estimates had wide confidence limits. Significant relationships were found between the thermophily and rheophily of the families and the estimated strength and direction of their long-term trends, with families that favour colder waters and faster-flowing habitats more likely to have declined. Although many families showed trends of increasing detection within samples, such trends do not necessarily equate to increasing prevalence in the environment because the extent of wetted habitat has probably declined, especially flowing habitat. In addition, because of likely intrafamilial trait diversity, increasing or apparently increasing families may include species in decline. Many freshwater macroinvertebrate species in NSW may be threatened by anthropogenic climate change, exacerbated by water withdrawals. The thermal tolerances, rheophily and other pertinent traits of individual species need to be determined to identify those most at risk.","Climatic changes and 13-year trends in stream macroinvertebrate assemblages in New South Wales, Australia",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2339354,"This study exploits a sudden and abrupt decline in precipitation of the long rains season in the Horn of Africa to analyze the possible link between climate change and violent armed conflict. Following the 1998 El Nino there has been an overall reduction in precipitation levels - associated with sea-surface temperature changes in the Indian and Pacific Oceans - resulting in an increase in the number and severity of droughts. Given that the probable cause of this shift is anthropogenic forcing, it provides a unique opportunity to study the effect of climate change on society compared to statistical inference based on weather variation. Focusing on communal conflict in Ethiopia and Kenya between 1999 and 2014, exploiting cross-sectional variation across districts, the regression analysis links the precipitation decline to an additional 1.3 conflict events per district. The main estimates show that there is a negative correlation between precipitation and communal conflict with a probability of 0.90. Changing model specification to consider plausible alternative models and accommodate other identifying assumptions produces broadly similar results. The generaliziability of the link between precipitation decline and conflict breaks down when using out-of-sample cross-validation to test the external validity. A leave-one-out cross-validation exercise shows that accounting for climate contributes relatively little to improving the predictive performance of the model. This suggests that there are other more salient factors underlying communal violence in Ethiopia and Kenya. As such, in this case the link between climate and conflict should not be overstated.",On climate and conflict: Precipitation decline and communal conflict in Ethiopia and Kenya,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1889839,"Rising temperatures in the Southeast U.S. have the potential to cause substantial impacts on the agriculture sector. A linked model approach was used to assess the impacts of three warming scenarios. Climate models generated future climatic conditions that were used in crop response models to determine climate-induced changes in yield and water use. These data were then used in a farm management model to provide insights into economic adaptations that might be expected if simulated weather and crop conditions occur. Moderate changes in climate, especially if accompanied by increased precipitation, are largely beneficial in terms of yield and water use, but income effects will be dependent on relative impacts in competing crop growing areas worldwide. Dramatic changes in temperature, especially without increases in precipitation, will have major, mostly negative effects on the agriculture sector in the Southeast U.S. through decreases in income and increased need for irrigation water.",Sensitivity of agriculture to rising temperature in the southeast US,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+759330,"AimLek-mating species, in which males congregate to display and copulate with females, are of long-standing behavioural, economic and conservation interest. Monitoring programs often target areas in which these species aggregate for mating (lek arenas) because of the often cryptic behaviours of these species when away from lek arenas. Due to survey methodologies and the ecology of many lek-mating species, the building of species distribution models (SDMs) requires researchers to consider issues that are generally absent when modelling distributions of non-lek-mating species. We describe these considerations and illustrate the advantages of employing dynamic SDMs to address non-equilibrium between a lek-mating species (Lesser Prairie-Chicken Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) and its environment. LocationNew Mexico, U.S.A. MethodsWe employed a 27-year data set of 2771 lek surveys from a T. pallidicinctus metapopulation to build dynamic SDMs using multi-season occupancy modelling. We considered covariates (1) indexing past abundance and distribution patterns expected to influence dispersal and local persistence, (2) describing landscape and weather dynamics expected to influence local recruitment, and (3) describing survey-level conditions expected to influence lek attendance. ResultsThe most supported dynamic SDM indicated an overall decline in occurrence and an ending distribution more restricted to the northern part of the 1222km(2) study area. Local colonization was best predicted by weather and landscape dynamics, while local extinction was best predicted by population processes and weather. Main conclusionsConservation of T. pallidicinctus will likely face challenges from (1) the reduced likelihood of colonization in areas of historical shrub-targeting herbicide application and (2) projected patterns of seasonal temperature and precipitation under climate change. In considering lek-mating species in general, we recommend the use of dynamic SDMs for an improved understanding of factors influencing distributions through time. Our approach and related efforts represent an important step in forecasting distributions under projected scenarios of environmental change to assist the conservation of these species.",Applying dynamic species distribution modelling to lek-mating species,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+596870,"Recent changes in climate have led to significant shifts in phenology, with many studies demonstrating advanced phenology in response to warming temperatures. The rate of temperature change is especially high in the Arctic, but this is also where we have relatively little data on phenological changes and the processes driving these changes. In order to understand how Arctic plant species are likely to respond to future changes in climate, we monitored flowering phenology in response to both experimental and ambient warming for four widespread species in two habitat types over 21years. We additionally used long-term environmental records to disentangle the effects of temperature increase and changes in snowmelt date on phenological patterns. While flowering occurred earlier in response to experimental warming, plants in unmanipulated plots showed no change or a delay in flowering over the 21-year period, despite more than 1 degrees C of ambient warming during that time. This counterintuitive result was likely due to significantly delayed snowmelt over the study period (0.05-0.2days/yr) due to increased winter snowfall. The timing of snowmelt was a strong driver of flowering phenology for all species - especially for early-flowering species - while spring temperature was significantly related to flowering time only for later-flowering species. Despite significantly delayed flowering phenology, the timing of seed maturation showed no significant change over time, suggesting that warmer temperatures may promote more rapid seed development. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the specific environmental cues that drive species' phenological responses as well as the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation when forecasting phenology over the coming decades. As demonstrated here, the effects of altered snowmelt patterns can counter the effects of warmer temperatures, even to the point of generating phenological responses opposite to those predicted by warming alone.",Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+73876,"In seasonal environments, birth dates are a central component for a species' life history, with potential long-term fitness consequences. Yet our understanding of selective pressures of environmental changes on birth dates is limited in wild mammals due to the difficulty of data collection. In a context of rapid climate change, the question of a possible mismatch between plant phenology and birth phenology also remains unanswered for most species. We assessed whether and how the timing of birth in a mountain mammal (isard, also named Pyrenean chamois, Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica) tracked changes in plant growing season, accounting for maternal traits, individual heterogeneity and population density. We not only focused on spring conditions but also assessed to what extent onset of autumn can be a driver of phenological biological events and compared the magnitude of the response to the magnitude of the environmental changes. We relied on a 22-year study based on intensively monitored marked individuals of known age. Births were highly synchronized (80% of kids born within 25days) and highly repeatable (84%; between-female variation of 96 days, within-female variation of 42days). Individual phenotypic plasticity allows females to respond rapidly to interannual changes in plant phenology but did not prevent the existence of a mismatch: a 10-day advance in the autumn or spring plant phenology led to 39 and 13days advance in birth dates, respectively. Our findings suggest that plant phenology may act as a cue to induce important stages of the reproductive cycle (e.g. conception and gestation length), subsequently affecting parturition dates, and stressed the importance of focusing on long-term changes during spring for which females may show much lower adaptive potential than during autumn. These results also question the extent to which individual plasticity along with high heterogeneity among individuals will allow species to cope with demographic consequences of climate changes.",Onset of autumn shapes the timing of birth in Pyrenean chamois more than onset of spring,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+643960,"Most extreme precipitation events that occur along the North American west coast are associated with winter atmospheric river (AR) events. Global climate models have sufficient resolution to simulate synoptic features associated with AR events, such as high values of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) approaching the coast. From phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), 10 simulations are used to identify changes in ARs impacting the west coast of North America between historical (1970-99) and end-of-century (2070-99) runs, using representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The most extreme ARs are identified in both time periods by the 99th percentile of IVT days along a north-south transect offshore of the coast. Integrated water vapor (IWV) and IVT are predicted to increase, while lowertropospheric winds change little. Winter mean precipitation along the west coast increases by 11%-18% [from 4% to 6% (°C)-1], while precipitation on extreme IVT days increases by 15%-39% [from 5% to 19% (°C)-1]. The frequency of IVT days above the historical 99th percentile threshold increases as much as 290% by the end of this century. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.",Changes in winter atmospheric rivers along the North American west coast in CMIP5 climate models,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2320722,"Global drought extremes are projected to increase under future warming scenarios. However, global drought risk and pattern remain to be revealed below 1.5 and 2 degrees C warming levels. Here we used multi-model simulations to estimate global drought trend based on multiple drought indicators. The frequency and duration of meteorological drought may increase much faster than surface soil moisture drought and root zone soil moisture drought under anthropogenic warming, with a probable similar to 36% (62%) increase in frequency and a similar to 15% (20%) increase in duration at 1.5 degrees C (2 degrees C) level relative to the reference period over the globe. A 5% (14%) increase of drought frequency is expected at 1.5 degrees C (2 degrees C) warming in the surface soil moisture, and a 5% (2%) increase of duration is also likely in the 0-10 cm soil layer. Unprecedented increased drought risk is anticipated at 2 degrees C level, with potential drought hot spots in North America, South America, southern Africa, Australia and Europe. Drought condition under future warming may be much worse in local areas. The drought frequency in the drylands is much less (> 34%) than the humid areas, but the duration is much higher (> 40%). The 2 degrees C relative to 1.5 degrees C warming is expected to bring higher drought risk than the 1.5 degrees C relative to 1 degrees C period with regard to the frequency.",Global drought trends under 1.5 and 2 degrees C warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+93575,"Continuously indexed datasets with multiple variables have become ubiquitous in the geophysical, ecological, environmental and climate sciences, and pose substantial analysis challenges to scientists and statisticians. For many years, scientists developed models that aimed at capturing the spatial behavior for an individual process; only within the last few decades has it become commonplace to model multiple processes jointly. The key difficulty is in specifying the cross-covariance function, that is, the function responsible for the relationship between distinct variables. Indeed, these cross-covariance functions must be chosen to be consistent with marginal covariance functions in such a way that the second-order structure always yields a nonnegative definite covariance matrix. We review the main approaches to building cross-covariance models, including the linear model of coregionalization, convolution methods, the multivariate Matern and nonstationary and space time extensions of these among others. We additionally cover specialized constructions, including those designed for asymmetry, compact support and spherical domains, with a review of physics-constrained models. We illustrate select models on a bivariate regional climate model output example for temperature and pressure, along with a bivariate minimum and maximum temperature observational dataset; we compare models by likelihood value as well as via cross-validation co-kriging studies. The article closes with a discussion of unsolved problems.",Cross-Covariance Functions for Multivariate Geostatistics,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+666617,"Permafrost covers 25% of the land surface in the northern hemisphere, where mean annual ground temperature is less than 0degreesC. A 1.4-5.8 degreesC warming by 2100 will likely change the sign of mean annual air and ground temperatures over much of the zones of sporadic and discontinuous permafrost in the northern hemisphere, causing widespread permafrost thaw. In this study, I examined rates of discontinuous permafrost thaw in the boreal peatlands of northern Manitoba, Canada, using a combination of tree-ring analyses to document thaw rates from 1941-1991 and direct measurements of permanent benchmarks established in 1995 and resurveyed in 2002. I used instrumented records of mean annual and seasonal air temperatures, mean winter snow depth, and duration of continuous snow pack from climate stations across northern Manitoba to analyze temporal and spatial trends in these variables and their potential impacts on thaw. Permafrost thaw in central Canadian peatlands has accelerated significantly since 1950, concurrent with a significant, late-20th-century average climate warming of +1.32 degreesC in this region. There were strong seasonal differences in warming in northern Manitoba, with highest rates of warming during winter (+1.39 degreesC to +1.66 degreesC) and spring (+0.56 degreesC to +0.78 degreesC) at southern climate stations where permafrost thaw was most rapid. Projecting current warming trends to year 2100, I show that trends for north-central Canada are in good agreement with general circulation models, which suggest a 4-8 degreesC warming at high latitudes. This magnitude of warming will begin to eliminate most of the present range of sporadic and discontinuous permafrost in central Canada by 2100.",Permafrost thaw accelerates in boreal peatlands during late-20th century climate warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+786104,"BACKGROUND: Vegetation fires can release substantial quantities of fine particles (PM2.5), which are harmful to health. The fire smoke may be transported over long distances and can cause adverse health effects over wide areas. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess annual mortality attributable to short-term exposures to vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 in different regions of Europe. METHODS: PM2.5 emissions from vegetation fires in Europe in 2005 and 2008 were evaluated based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data on fire radiative power. Atmospheric transport of the emissions was modeled using the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) chemical transport model. Mortality impacts were estimated for 27 European countries based on a) modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations and b) population data, both presented in a 50 x 50 km(2) spatial grid; c) an exposure-response function for short-term PM2.5 exposure and daily nonaccidental mortality; and d) country-level data for background mortality risk. RESULTS: In the 27 countries overall, an estimated 1,483 and 1,080 premature deaths were attributable to the vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 in 2005 and 2008, respectively. Estimated impacts were highest in southern and eastern Europe. However, all countries were affected by fire-originated PM2.5, and even the lower concentrations in western and northern Europe contributed substantially (similar to 30%) to the overall estimate of attributable mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our assessment suggests that air pollution caused by PM2.5 released from vegetation fires is a notable risk factor for public health in Europe. Moreover, the risk can be expected to increase in the future as climate change proceeds. This factor should be taken into consideration when evaluating the overall health and socioeconomic impacts of these fires.",Mortality due to Vegetation Fire-Originated PM2.5 Exposure in Europe-Assessment for the Years 2005 and 2008,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+205465,"The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Forcing Data-Gridded Daily Precipitation & Temperature Dataset-5 km (CPLFD-GDPT5) consists of 1951-2013 daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals interpolated onto a 5 km grid based on daily meteorological observations from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB; Polish stations), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, German and Czech stations), and European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECAD) and National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration-National Climatic Data Center (NOAA-NCDC) (Slovak, Ukrainian, and Belarusian stations). The main purpose for constructing this product was the need for long-term aerial precipitation and temperature data for earth-system modelling, especially hydrological modelling. The spatial coverage is the union of the Vistula and Oder basins and Polish territory. The number of available meteorological stations for precipitation and temperature varies in time from about 100 for temperature and 300 for precipitation in the 1950s up to about 180 for temperature and 700 for precipitation in the 1990s. The precipitation data set was corrected for snowfall and rainfall under-catch with the Richter method. The interpolation methods were kriging with elevation as external drift for temperatures and indicator kriging combined with universal kriging for precipitation. The kriging cross validation revealed low root-mean-squared errors expressed as a fraction of standard deviation (SD): 0.54 and 0.47 for minimum and maximum temperature, respectively, and 0.79 for precipitation. The correlation scores were 0.84 for minimum temperatures, 0.88 for maximum temperatures, and 0.65 for precipitation. The CPLFD-GDPT5 product is consistent with 1971-2000 climatic data published by IMGW-PIB. We also confirm good skill of the product for hydrological modelling by performing an application using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Vistula and Oder basins. Link to the data set: doi:10.4121/uuid:e939aec0-bdd1-440f-bd1e-c49ff10d0a07.",CPLFD-GDPT5: High-resolution gridded daily precipitation and temperature data set for two largest Polish river basins,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+63590,"We live in a constantly changing environment, yet tracking ecological change is often very difficult. Long-term monitoring data are frequently lacking and are especially sparse from Arctic ecosystems, where logistical difficulties limit most monitoring programs. Fortunately, lake and pond sediments contain important archives of past limno-logical communities that can be used to reconstruct environmental change. Here, we summarize some of the pale-olimnological studies that have documented recent climate warming in Arctic lakes and ponds. Several hypotheses have been evaluated to determine if warming, resulting in changes in ice cover and related variables (eg increased habitat availability), was the factor most strongly influencing recent diatom and other biotic changes. Striking and often unprecedented community changes were evident in post-1850 sediments, and could be linked to ecological shifts consistent with warming. Because future temperature increases are predicted to be greatly amplified in polar regions, the ecological integrity of these sensitive ecosystems will be further imperiled.",From controversy to consensus: making the case for recent climate using lake sediments,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+13325,"Climatic changes occurring worldwide are a great threat to biodiversity and species richness of many groups of organisms, thus affecting agriculture and food security. Present study deals with the butterfly populations of the coniferous forests of Murree Hills and adjacent areas of Pakistan. Inter comparisons have also been made of the current datasets with the previous archives. With a relatively short life-cycle and host-plant reliance, butterfly communities show quick response to climate change. The moist Himalayan temperate forests of Murree Hills and adjoining areas are home to many exotic species of butterflies. The weather records of the previous two decades have shown reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature and extreme weather events. In this short span of time 14 species of butterflies have disappeared from the study area. The study shows that the remaining species are threatened due to introduction of invasive species new to this area and increased predator population. In total 46 species with Shannon index of 1.3 were recorded in the present study. One species has been recorded for the first time","Effect of Climate Change on Butterfly Population of Selected Coniferous Forests of Murree Hills.and Adjacent Areas, Pakistan",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+96125,"Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) have had on runoff change; however, the influence of temperature on runoff needs to be further studied. We attempted to employ the improved elasticity method to evaluate the effects of climate factors (CF, especially temperature) on runoff change for Aksu River in the arid region of northwest China. Data from Aksu River in the arid region of northwest China were analyzed to investigate changes in annual runoff and CF during the period of 1960-2010. The key findings of this study indicated that the annual runoff had a significant (P<0.01) increasing trend with a rate of 3.78x10(8) m(3)/decade, and the temperature and precipitation also exhibited significant rising trends, at a rate of 0.28 degrees C/decade (P<0.01) and 15.11 mm/decade (P<0.05), respectively, while PET showed a decreasing trend (22.66 mm/decade, P<0.01). Step change point in runoff occurred in the year 1993. Thus, we employed the mean runoff and climate factors during the period 1960-1993 as the benchmark value to measure the change. In 1994-2010, mean runoff increased by 22 %. Results also revealed that temperature rising was the most important factor that increased runoff with contribution of 45 %, while precipitation and PET were responsible for 22 and 27% of the runoff change, respectively, indicating that the runoff of increasing percentage only accounted for 6% owing to human activities and other factors, and showed that climate variability was the main reason for the runoff change in Aksu River.",Quantitatively evaluating the effects of climate factors on runoff change for Aksu River in northwestern China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3917968,"In the western Mediterranean Sea, the RADMED monitoring programme is already conducting several of the evaluations required under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MFSD) along the Spanish Mediterranean coast. The different aspects of the ecosystem that are regularly sampled under this monitoring programme are the physical environment and the chemical and biological variables of the water column, together with the planktonic communities, biomass and structure. Moreover, determinations of some anthropogenic stressors on the marine environment, such as contaminants and microplastics, are under development. Data are managed and stored at the Instituto Espanõl de Oceanografiá (IEO) Data Centre that works under the SeaDataNet infrastructure, and are also stored in the IBAMar database. In combination with remote sensing data, they are used to address open questions on the ecosystems in the western Mediterranean Sea. © 2015 The Athor(s).",The RADMED monitoring programme as a tool for MSFD implementation: Towards an ecosystem-based approach,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+353690,"Kenya's small scale coral reef fisheries are extensively studied yet a practical understanding of the resilience and status of the main target species remains largely elusive to the manager. We combined a range of fishery and fish population descriptors to analyse Kenya's coral reef fish and fisheries over a 20 year period from the 1980s, to determine the sustainability of current fishing levels and provide recommendations for management. Fishers reported over 13 different artisanal fishing gears of which there are data for only the five widely used gears. Average catch rates declined 4-fold from the mid 1980s (13.7 +/- 1.6 kg/fisher/trip) to the 1990s (3.2 +/- 0.1 kg/fisher/trip) and then stabilized. Species richness in catches of these historically multi-species fisheries declined dramatically and by 2007 only 2-3 species appeared in the top bracket (65-75% by number) with Siganus sutor (African whitespotted rabbitfish) and Leptoscarus vaigiensis (marbled parrotfish) consistently being in this bracket in beach seine, gill net and basket trap catches, contributing up to a maximum of 45% and 47% of the catch, respectively. Lethrinus bor-bonicus dominated handline catches (50%). Relatively stable catch rates are reported from the 1990s to the mid 2000s, likely maintained by shifting proportions of species in the catches. Patterns in fish population densities over time show National Parks have helped increase densities of Lethrinidae and Haemulidae and reduced the decline in densities of Scaridae and Acanthuridae, but that National Reserves have had no positive effect. We suggest that the National Parks, which are No Take Zones (NTZs), and the fisheries regulations inside and outside of Reserves are inadequate for maintaining or restoring reef fishery target families under current levels of fishery exploitation. We propose that recruitment overfishing of several species and insufficient areas under full protection, all exacerbated by climate change, are contributing to driving Kenya's artisanal coral reef fisheries to a tipping point. We recommend species-specific management options, changes in and enforcement of gear regulations and many more effective NTZs are needed urgently if these fisheries are to continue to provide livelihoods and food security on the Kenyan coast. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Artisanal fisheries on Kenya's coral reefs: Decadal trends reveal management needs,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1308022,"The change in water temperature has a potential impact on the behavior of aquatic animal including fish which was generated by their sound productivity and characteristics. This research aimed to study the response of sound productivity and characteristics of Terapon jorbua to temperature change. As a response to temperature increases, Terapon jorbua have decreased the number of sound productivity. Two characteristic parameters of fish sound, i.e., intensity and frequency were quadratically increased during the water temperature rises. In contrast, pulse duration was quadratically decreased.",Sound characteristics of Terapon Fish (Terapon jorbua) as a response to temperature changes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2364116,"Due to their position at the land-sea interface, barrier islands are vulnerable to both oceanic and atmospheric climate change-related drivers. In response to relative sealevel rise, barrier islands tend to migrate landward via overwash processes which deposit sediment onto the backbarrier marsh, thus maintaining elevation above sea level. In this paper, we assess the importance of interior upland vegetation and sediment transport (from upland to marsh) on the movement of the marsh-upland boundary in a transgressive barrier system along the mid-Atlantic Coast. We hypothesize that recent woody expansion is altering the rate of marsh to upland conversion. Using Landsat imagery over a 32 year time period (1984-2016), we quantify transitions between land cover (bare, grassland, woody vegetation, and marsh) and the marsh-upland boundary. We find that the Virginia Barrier Islands have both gains and losses in backbarrier marsh and upland, with 19% net loss from the system during the timeframe of the study and increased variance in marsh to upland conversion. This is consistent with recent work indicating a shift toward increasing rates of landward barrier island migration. Despite a net loss of upland area, macroclimatic winter warming resulted in 41% increase in woody vegetation in protected, low-elevation areas, introducing new ecological scenarios that increase resistance to sediment movement from upland to marsh. Our analysis demonstrates how the interplay between elevation and interior island vegetative cover influences landward migration of the boundary between upland and marsh (a previously underappreciated indicator that an island is migrating), and thus, the importance of including ecological processes in the island interior into coastal modeling of barrier island migration and sediment movement across the barrier landscape.",Connectivity in coastal systems: Barrier island vegetation influences upland migration in a changing climate,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+197131,"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that there is consensus that the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases will result in climate change which will cause the sea level to rise, increased frequency of extreme climatic events including intense storms, heavy rainfall events and droughts. This will increase the frequency of climate-related hazards, causing loss of life, social disruption and economic hardships. There is less consensus on the magnitude of change of climatic variables, but several studies have shown that climate change will impact on the availability and demand for water resources. In southern Africa, climate change is likely to affect nearly every aspect of human well-being, from agricultural productivity and energy use to flood control, municipal and industrial water supply to wildlife management, since the region is characterised by highly spatial and temporally variable rainfall and, in some cases, scarce water resources. Vulnerability is exacerbated by the region's low adaptive capacity, widespread poverty and low technology uptake. This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa. The outcomes of this review include highlighting studies on detected climate changes particularly focusing on temperature and rainfall. Additionally, the impacts of climate change are highlighted, and respective studies on hydrological responses to climate change are examined. The review also discusses the challenges in climate change impact analysis, which inevitably represents existing research and knowledge gaps. Finally the paper concludes by outlining possible research areas in the realm of climate change impacts on water resources, particularly knowledge gaps in uncertainty analysis for both climate change and hydrological modelling. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa: A review,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+492090,"Over the last half century, the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has been among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. This has led to increased summer snowmelt, loss of ice shelves, and retreat of 87% of marine and tidewater glacier fronts. Tidewater-glacier flow is sensitive to changes in basal water supply and to thinning of the terminus, and faster flow leads directly to sea level rise. The flow rates of most AP tidewater glaciers have never been measured, however, and hence their dynamic response to the recent changes is unknown. We present repeated flow rate measurements from over 300 glaciers on the AP west coast through nine summers from 1992 to 2005. We show that the flow rate increased by similar to 12% on average and that this trend is greater than the seasonal variability in flow rate. We attribute this widespread acceleration trend not to meltwater-enhanced lubrication or increased snowfall but to a dynamic response to frontal thinning. We estimate that as a result, the annual sea level contribution from this region has increased by 0.047 +/- 0.011 mm between 1993 and 2003. This contribution, together with previous studies that assessed increased runoff from the area and acceleration of glaciers resulting from the removal of ice shelves, implies a combined AP contribution of 0.16 +/- 0.06 mm yr(-1). This is comparable to the contribution from Alaskan glaciers, and combined with estimated mass loss from West Antarctica, is probably large enough to outweigh mass gains in East Antarctica and to make the total Antarctic sea level contribution positive.",Widespread acceleration of tidewater glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+598876,"This work investigates the impact of climate variability on internal migration flows in post-apartheid South Africa. We combine information from South African censuses and climatic data to build a panel database covering the waves 1997-2001 and 2007-2011. The database enables the examination of the effect of spatiotemporal variability in temperature and precipitation on inter-district migration flows defined by five-year intervals. We employ a gravity approach where bilateral migration flows are explained by climate variability at the origin, along with a number of geographic, socio-economic and demographic factors traditionally identified as potential drivers of migration. Overall, we find that an increase in positive temperature extremes as well as positive and negative excess rainfall at the origin act as a push effect and enhance out-migration. However, the significance of the effect of climate on migration greatly varies by migrant characteristics. Particularly, flows of black and low-income South African migrants are strongly influenced by climatic variables whereas those of white and high-income migrants exhibit a weak impact. We also argue that agriculture may function as a transmission channel through which adverse climatic conditions affect migration. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1549781,"Malaria transmission is influenced by climate, land use and deliberate interventions. Recent declines have been observed in malaria transmission. Here we show that the African continent has witnessed a long-term decline in the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum from 40% prevalence in the period 1900-1929 to 24% prevalence in the period 2010-2015, a trend that has been interrupted by periods of rapidly increasing or decreasing transmission. The cycles and trend over the past 115 years are inconsistent with explanations in terms of climate or deliberate intervention alone. Previous global initiatives have had minor impacts on malaria transmission, and a historically unprecedented decline has been observed since 2000. However, there has been little change in the high transmission belt that covers large parts of West and Central Africa. Previous efforts to model the changing patterns of P. falciparum transmission intensity in Africa have been limited to the past 15 years(1,2) or have used maps drawn from historical expert opinions(3). We provide quantitative data, from 50,424 surveys at 36,966 geocoded locations, that covers 115 years of malaria history in sub-Saharan Africa; inferring from these data to future trends, we would expect continued reductions in malaria transmission, punctuated with resurgences.",The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+271249,"Temperature is often seen as the dominant control on inter-decadal glacier volume changes. However, despite regional warming over the past half-century, the glaciers of Mount Shasta have continued to expand following a contraction during a prolonged drought in the early twentieth century, indicating a greater sensitivity to precipitation than temperature. We use the 110 year record of fluctuations in Mount Shasta's glaciers and climate to calibrate numerical glacier models of the two largest glaciers. The reconstructed balance and volume histories show a much greater correlation to precipitation than temperature and significant correlation to oscillatory modes of Pacific Ocean climate. An approximately 20% increase in precipitation is needed for every 1 degrees C increase in temperature to maintain stability. Under continued historical trends, oscillations in climate modes and random variability will dominate inter-decadal variability in ice volume. Under the strong warming trend predicted by a regional climate model, the temperature trend will be the dominant forcing resulting in near total loss of Mount Shasta's glaciers by the end of the twenty-first century.","A precipitation-dominated, mid-latitude glacier system: Mount Shasta, California",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+608626,"Climate change directly affects the suitability of habitats for species, but also indirectly alters natural disturbances such as fire, which can negatively impact species' persistence. Developing accurate predictions of climate change impacts requires estimates of the interactive effects of climate and disturbance regimes at both population and landscape scales. Here we couple a habitat suitability model with a population viability model to examine the interactive effects of climate change and altered fire regimes on a fire-responsive frog species across its geographic range in south-eastern Australia. By 2100, we predict expected minimum abundances (EMA) to decline by 66% (under GFDL-CM2 A1FI climate projections) or 87% (CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI) in the absence of fire. Increased frequency of low-intensity fires reduced EMA by less than 5%, whereas increased frequency of high-intensity fire's reduced EMA by up to 40% compared with the no-fire scenario. While shifts in fire regimes are predicted to impact metapopulation viability, these indirect effects of fire are far less severe than the direct impact of climate change on habitat suitability. Exploring the interactive impacts of climate change and altered disturbance regimes can help managers prioritize threats across space and time.. Crown Copyright (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Interactive effects of climate change and fire on metapopulation viability of a forest-dependent frog in south-eastern Australia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+202322,"The highest diversity coral reefs in the world, located in the Coral Triangle, are threatened by a variety of local stresses including pollution, overfishing, and destructive fishing in addition to climate change impacts, such as increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and ocean acidification. As climate change impacts increase, coral reef vulnerability at the ecoregional scale will have an increasingly important influence on conservation management decisions. This project provides the first detailed assessment of past and future climatic stress, thermal variability, and anthropogenic impacts in the Coral Triangle at the ecoregional level, thus incorporating both local (e.g., pollution, development, and overfishing) and global threats (increasing SSTs). The development of marine protected area (MPA) networks across the Coral Triangle is critical for the region to address these threats. Specific management recommendations are defined for MPA networks based on the levels of vulnerability to thermal and local stress. For example, coral reef regions with potentially low vulnerability to thermal stress may be priorities for establishment of MPA networks, whereas high vulnerability regions may require selection and design principles aimed at building resilience to climate change. The identification of climate and other human threats to coral reef systems and ecoregions can help conservation practitioners prioritize management responses to address these threats and identify gaps in MPA networks or other management mechanisms (e. g., integrated coastal management).",Warming Seas in the Coral Triangle: Coral Reef Vulnerability and Management Implications,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2521396,"This article provides a synthesis of the latest observational trends and projections for the future of the Arctic. First, the Arctic is already changing rapidly as a result of climate change. Contemporary warm Arctic temperatures and large sea ice deficits (75% volume loss) demonstrate climate states outside of previous experience. Modeled changes of the Arctic cryosphere demonstrate that even limiting global temperature increases to near 2 degrees C will leave the Arctic a much different environment by mid-century with less snow and sea ice, melted permafrost, altered ecosystems, and a projected annual mean Arctic temperature increase of +4 degrees C. Second, even under ambitious emission reduction scenarios, high-latitude land ice melt, including Greenland, are foreseen to continue due to internal lags, leading to accelerating global sea level rise throughout the century. Third, future Arctic changes may in turn impact lower latitudes through tundra greenhouse gas release and shifts in ocean and atmospheric circulation. Arctic-specific radiative and heat storage feedbacks may become an obstacle to achieving a stabilized global climate. In light of these trends, the precautionary principle calls for early adaptation and mitigation actions.",The urgency of Arctic change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+352886,"The Arctic has undergone substantial changes over the last few decades in various cryospheric and derivative systems and processes. Of these, the Arctic sea ice regime has seen some of the most rapid change and is one of the most visible markers of Arctic change outside the scientific community. This has drawn considerable attention not only from the natural sciences, but increasingly, from the political and commercial sectors as they begin to grapple with the problems and opportunities that are being presented. The possible impacts of past and projected changes in Arctic sea ice, especially as it relates to climatic response, are of particular interest and have been the subject of increasing research activity. A review of the current knowledge of the role of sea ice in the climate system is therefore timely. We present a review that examines both the current state of understanding, as regards the impacts of sea-ice loss observed to date, and climate model projections, to highlight hypothesised future changes and impacts on storm tracks and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Within the broad climate-system perspective, the topics of storminess and large-scale variability will be specifically considered. We then consider larger-scale impacts on the climatic system by reviewing studies that have focused on the interaction between sea-ice extent and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Finally, an overview of the representation of these topics in the literature in the context of IPCC climate projections is presented. While most agree on the direction of Arctic sea-ice change, the rates amongst the various projections vary greatly. Similarly, the response of storm tracks and climate variability are uncertain, exacerbated possibly by the influence of other factors. A variety of scientific papers on the relationship between sea-ice changes and atmospheric variability have brought to light important aspects of this complex topic. Examples are an overall reduction in the number of Arctic winter storms, a northward shift of mid-latitude winter storms in the Pacific and a delayed negative NAO-like response in autumn/winter to a reduced Arctic sea-ice cover (at least in some months). This review paper discusses this research and the disagreements, bringing about a fresh perspective on this issue. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","A review on Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, storminess and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Observations and projected changes",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1431046,"Recently accumulated evidence has documented a climate impact on the demography and dynamics of single species, yet the impact at the community level is poorly understood. Here, we show that in Svalbard in the high Arctic, extreme weather events synchronize population fluctuations across an entire community of resident vertebrate herbivores and cause lagged correlations with the secondary consumer, the arctic fox. This synchronization is mainly driven by heavy rain on snow that encapsulates the vegetation in ice and blocks winter forage availability for herbivores. Thus, indirect and bottom-up climate forcing drives the population dynamics across all overwintering vertebrates. Icing is predicted to become more frequent in the circumpolar Arctic and may therefore strongly affect terrestrial ecosystem characteristics.",Climate Events Synchronize the Dynamics of a Resident Vertebrate Community in the High Arctic,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+408286,"Presented in this study is an empirical analysis of embodied carbon dioxide (CO2) emission originated in fossil fuels combustion for the world economy in 2004 using a systems input-output simulation. A global embodied CO2 intensity database associated with 112 regions and 57 sectors is constructed, based on which the regional embodiment inventories are compiled to investigate the emissions instigated by particular economic activities. Globally, CO2 emissions embodied in household fossil fuels combustion, in household commodity consumption, in government commodity consumption, and in investment are 3.99, 13.83, 2.07, and 5.22 Gt, respectively. As an indicator to reveal the average occupation of carbon welfare, regional per capita CO2 emission embodied in domestic final demand varies from 0.12 t in Ethiopia to 45.16 t in Rest of North America. The severe inequality between regions is further confirmed by the high Gini coefficients for CO 2 emissions (0.56 for direct emission and 0.58 for embodiment). And finally, the interregional carbon leakage in terms of net leakage, spill-over, and diversion is illustrated via dividing the world into three coalitions according to respective economic statuses. © 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.",Embodied carbon dioxide emissions of the world economy: A systems input-output simulation for 2004,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+199838,"The concentrations of dimethyl sulfide in air were obtained during a cruise between the United Kingdom and the Antarctic in the period October 1992 to January 1993 using a method of sampling and analysis optimized to avoid interferences from oxidants. In equatorial regions (30 degrees N to 30 degrees S) the atmospheric DMS concentration ranged from 3 to 46 ng (S) m(-3), with an average of 18 ng (S) m(-3). In the polar waters and regions south of the Falkland Islands, concentrations from 3 to 714 ng (S) m(-3) were observed, with a mean concentration of 73 ng (S) m(-3). The concentrations of a range of DMS oxidation products were also obtained. No clear relationships between reactant and product concentrations were seen. Information on particle number concentration, Fuchs surface area and the thermal volatility characteristics of the ambient aerosol was obtained, but again no clear relationships with sulfur concentrations were observed. Accumulation mode particle concentrations averaged 25 cm(-3) in the clean marine and polar air masses south of 58 degrees S while background condensation nuclei (CN) concentrations were of the order of 400-600 cm(-3). Simplistic calculations suggest that a particle source strength of about 20-60 particles cm(-3) d(-1) is required to sustain this background CN concentration. It is not clear whether boundary layer nucleation of new CN or entrainment from the free troposphere provided the source of CN. Periods of elevated CN concentrations (>4000 cm(-3)) were regularly observed in the boundary layer over the Weddell Sea and were attributed to ''bursts'' of new particle formation. However, shortly after these nucleation events the CN concentration rapidly decayed to the background level through coagulation losses, suggesting little impact on die background CN or cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration.","Dimethyl sulfide, methane sulfonic acid and physicochemical aerosol properties in Atlantic air from the United Kingdom to Halley Bay",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+517382,"China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2) As exports account for about one-third of China's GDP, the CO2 emissions are related to not only China's own consumption but also external demand. Using the input-output analysis (IOA), we analyze the embodied CO2 emissions of China's import and export. Our results show that about 3357 million tons CO2 emissions were embodied in the exports and the emissions avoided by imports (EAI) were 2333 million tons in 2005. The average contribution to embodied emission factors by electricity generation was over 35%. And that by cement production was about 20%. It implies that the production-based emissions of China are more than the consumption-based emissions, which is evidence that carbon leakage occurs under the current climate policies and international trade rules. In addition to the call for a new global framework to allocate emission responsibilities, China should make great efforts to improve its energy efficiency, carry out electricity pricing reforms and increase renewable energy. In particular, to use advanced technology in cement production will be helpful to China's CO2 abatement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1875988,"Projections of changes in temperature extremes are critical to assess the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural and ecological systems. Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale output from a large number of general circulation models (GCMs) to a fine temporal and spatial scale, which now provides the opportunity for future projections of extreme temperature events. This paper presents an analysis of extreme temperature in data downscaled from ensembles of 13 selected GCMs, out of 28 GCMs, contributing to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in eastern Australia. The statistical downscaling procedure begins with spatial interpolation of the monthly gridded data to specific locations of interest using an inverse distance-weighted method, followed by a bias correction towards historical observed climate. Daily climate data for each location are then generated by a modified version of the WGEN stochastic weather generator. The extremes of temperature are described by eleven indices, namely, the annual maximum daily Tmax (TXx), the annual maximum daily Tmin (TNx), the annual minimum daily Tmax (TXn), the annual minimum daily Tmin (TNn), the number of hot days (HD) and frost days (FD), warm days (TX90p) and nights (TN90p), cold days (TX10p) and nights (TN10p) and extreme temperature range (ETR). The results show that downscaled data from most of the GCMs reproduced the correct sign of recent trends in all the extreme temperature indices (except TN10p) although there was much more variation between the individual model runs. An independence weighted mean method was used to calculate uncertainty estimates, which verified that multi-model ensemble projections produced a good consensus compared to the observations in magnitude of the trend in TXx, TN90p, HD, TNn, ETR for the period 1961-2000 when averaged across eastern Australia. In the 21st century the frost days, cold days and nights decrease while more frequent warm days and nights and hot days are projected in the New South Wales (NSW) wheat belt. The changes in temperature extremes under RCP8.5 are more pronounced than that under RCP4.5. Greater warming occurs in the east and northeast of the NSW wheat belt by the end of the 21st century and increases the risk of exposure to hot days around wheat flowering date, which results in farmers needing to reconsider wheat varieties suited to maintain yield. This analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in climate extremes from the ensemble of 13 CMIP5 models with statistical downscaling data in eastern Australia, and supplies important information to mitigate the adverse effects of climate extremes on NSW wheat belt and improve the regional strategy for agricultural systems.",Multi-model ensemble projections of future extreme temperature change using a statistical downscaling method in eastern Australia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+61424,"Fire history was reconstructed for an area of 15 000 km(2) located in the transition zone between the mixed and coniferous forests in Quebec's southern boreal forest. We used aerial photographs, archives, and dendroecological data (315 sites) to reconstruct a stand initiation map for the area. The cumulative distribution of burnt area in relation to time since fire suggests that the fire frequency has decreased drastically since the end of the Little Ice Age (about 1850) in the entire region. However, a large part of the area was burned between 1910 and 1920 during intensive colonization and when the climate was very conducive to fire. For the period 1920-1945, large fires have mainly been concentrated in the more populated southern area, while few fires have been observed in the virgin coniferous forest in the north. Despite slight differences between the south and the north, fire cycles or the average number of years since fire are not significantly different. Since 1945, there have been far more fires in the south, but the mean fire size was smaller than in the-north. These results suggest that the transition between the mixed and coniferous forests observed in the southern boreal forest cannot be explained by a difference in fire frequency, at least during the last 300 years. As climatic factors and species potential distribution did not vary significantly from south to north, we suggest that the transition from mixedwood to coniferous forests is mainly controlled by fire size and severity. Smaller and less severe fires would favor species associated with the mixedwood forests as many need survivors to reinvade burnt areas. The abundance of deciduous species in mixedwood forests, together with the presence of more lakes that can act as firebreaks, may contribute to decreases in fire size and severity. The transition between the two vegetation zones could be related to the initial setting following the vegetation invasion of the area during the Holocene. In this context, the limit of vegetation zones in systems controlled by disturbance regimes such as fires may not have reached a balance with current climatic conditions. Historical legacies and strong positive feedback between disturbance regimes and composition may filter and delay the responses to changes in climate.",Fire regimes at the transition between mixedwood and coniferous boreal forest in Northwestern Quebec,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+630050,"Palynology provides the opportunity to make inferences on changes in diversity of terrestrial vegetation over long time scales. The often coarse taxonomic level achievable in pollen analysis, differences in pollen production and dispersal, and the lack of pollen source boundaries hamper the application of diversity indices to palynology. Palynological richness, the number of pollen types at a constant pollen count, is the most robust and widely used diversity indicator for pollen data. However, this index is also influenced by the abundance distribution of pollen types in sediments. In particular, where the index is calculated by rarefaction analysis, information on taxonomic richness at low abundance may be lost. Here we explore information that can be extracted from the accumulation of taxa over consecutive samples. The log-transformed taxa accumulation curve can be broken up into linear sections with different slope and intersect parameters, describing the accumulation of new taxa within the section. The breaking points may indicate changes in the species pool or in the abundance of high versus low pollen producers. Testing this concept on three pollen diagrams from different landscapes, we find that the break points in the taxa accumulation curves provide convenient zones for identifying changes in richness and evenness. The linear regressions over consecutive samples can be used to inter- and extrapolate to low or extremely high pollen counts, indicating evenness and richness in taxonomic composition within these zones. An evenness indicator, based on the rank-order-abundance is used to assist in the evaluation of the results and the interpretation of the fossil records. Two central European pollen diagrams show major changes in the taxa accumulation curves for the Lateglacial period and the time of human induced land-use changes, while they do not indicate strong changes in the species pool with the onset of the Holocene. In contrast, a central Swedish pollen diagram shows comparatively little change, but high richness during the early Holocene forest establishment. Evenness and palynological richness are related for most periods in the three diagrams, however, sections before forest establishment and after forest clearance show high evenness, which is not necessarily accompanied by high palynological richness, encouraging efforts to separate the two.",Palynological richness and evenness: insights from the taxa accumulation curve,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+617015,"To evaluate how climate change might impact a competitively dominant ecological engineer, we analysed the growth response of the mussel Mytilus californianus to climate patterns [El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)]. Mussels grew faster during warmer climatic events. Growth was initially faster on a more productive cape compared to a less productive cape. Growth rates at the two capes merged in 2002, coincidentally with a several year-long shift from warm to cool PDO conditions. To determine the mechanism underlying this response, we examined growth responses to intertidal sea and air temperatures, phytoplankton, sea level and tide height. Together, water temperature (32%) and food (12.5%) explained 44.5% of the variance in mussel growth; contributions of other factors were not significant. In turn, water temperature and food respond to climate-driven variation in upwelling and other, unknown factors. Understanding responses of ecosystem engineers to climate change will require knowing direct thermal effects and indirect effects of factors altered by temperature change.",Response of a rocky intertidal ecosystem engineer and community dominant to climate change,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3881811,"In OUR Gas Processing plants, steam is used as a heating medium in process reboilers and utilities. Condensate carryover induces water hammer in the distribution-piping network, causes pipe/structure dislocations, and creates serious risk to plant operations, safety and integrity. This paper presents the techniques to identify the root causes and mitigation measures to minimize such incidents and enhance energy saving opportunities in steam network. The existing steam generation and distribution network is huge with multiple plant interfaces due to brownfield expansions. A comprehensive analysis of integrated network for design, operation, maintenance and monitoring along-with detailed survey was performed. Gap analysis of steam system components was conducted to identify the improvements considering current standards and best practices. Detailed dripleg/trap adequacy checks, condensate load calculation, trap survey and steam quality check was performed. RCA reports were reviewed for causes of incidents and recommendations incorporated. Study revealed that optimized driplegs, steam trap types, insulation and monitoring program, reduces steam blow-off and enhances energy savings and plant performance. Analysis showed that existing network operates just above saturation temperature and lacks provisions to remove condensate and trap management needs improvement. For uninterrupted plant operation, bypass valves of failed traps were opened to atmosphere resulting in steam/condensate losses. Key findings are; • Piping/structure not designed for hammering and should be avoided by minimizing condensate from source and removal during distribution • Steam dryness is nearly 93% indicating &gt;7% is condensate to be drained from steam system. • Valve/flange insulation removed during maintenance not reinstated, accelerates condensate formation and energy loss. • Reverse and bidirectional flow occurs; however, piping is designed for unidirectional flow. • Slope not provided; however, modification to existing piping is not feasible. • Dripleg/Steam trap interval &gt;100m at many locations does not comply max.50m requirement and existing driplegs are undersized. • Flanged connections are susceptible for steam leaks, should be minimized. • Survey indicated that &gt;50% steam traps are either blocked or blowing steam (passing). • Thermodynamic traps predominantly provided in saturated steam systems are ineffective for actual condensate loads and blocked by corrosion particles • Blocked traps create water hammering. Steam leaks cause energy loss and damages supports, concrete paving and foundations Major recommendations are; • For interconnected networks, maintain uniform temperature across all desuperheaters and provide driplegs / traps either side of expansion loops. • Use float drain traps at desuperheater downstream and inverted bucket traps in distribution piping. • For maintenance ease, utilize universal connector/compact trap valve stations. • Replace failed traps immediately. • Evaluate using cyclone separators to improve steam dryness. Develop trap database and conduct surveys through specialists Study recommendations being implemented in phases. © 2019, Society of Petroleum Engineers",Achieving energy efficiency through critical process utility system enhancement,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1581629,"Feeding the world sustainably requires balancing social, economic, and environmental concerns. The food systems concept guides the study of social and environmental processes that influence food and nutrition security. Human ecology conceptually offers insights into the social components of a system and its interaction with environmental change. This paper demonstrates how human ecology helps identify the dominant discourses that influence dominant social drivers in food systems. This is done through documenting the historical legacies of agricultural commodity production systems in the Philippines since Spanish colonization, and the human and ecological implications of this history. The analysis shows the presence of a maladaptive system influenced by market-oriented food security as a dominant discourse. Alternative discourses focused on sovereignty and participation exist in the Philippines, however these are often marginalised from dominant policy and research programs. The paper discusses how weak feedback processes provide possible intervention points in policy or farmer-led activities to explore alternative pathways to food and nutrition security. The paper concludes with highlighting how human ecology offers useful framework for advancing food systems analysis into social, political, and policy dimensions of food activities. Such analysis can help develop new research and policies that require managing the competing discourses of how to achieve sustainable food and nutrition security.",Human Ecology and Food Systems: Insights from the Philippines,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1893120,"This paper presents detailed trend analyses of the hydroclimatic patterns in the Tet River basin, a typical coastal river in the south of France. We investigated the period 1980-2000. Average temperatures during this period were among the warmest of the last century, and possible trends may allow an evaluation of the response of this river to future climate change. Our results show that the average annual temperature in the basin shows a highly significant trend towards increasing temperatures. Mean annual runoff from the basin is highly variable and shows no clear trend over the Study period. Annual maximum discharge values, however, follow a trend towards increasing values. This trend is only present in the downstream part of the basin, at the gauging station close to the river mouth, but it is absent further upstream, in the Mountainous part of the basin. The evolution of precipitation is consistent with this pattern. Although mean annual precipitation over the entire basin also shows no clear evolution in terms of its absolute values, it is found that the contribution from the highest basin parts decreased whereas the contribution from the middle and lower basin parts increased.",Hydroclimatic response of the River Tet (southern France) to recent temperature increase,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+532629,"For thousands of years, the Huang-Hai Plain in northeast China has been one of the most productive agricultural regions of the country. The future of this region will be determined in large part by how global climatic changes impact regional conditions and by actions taken to mitigate or adapt to climate change impacts. One potential mitigation strategy is to promote management practices that have the potential to sequester carbon in the soils. The IPCC estimates that 40 Pg of C could be sequestered in cropland soils worldwide over the next several decades; however, changes in global climate may impact this potential. Here, we assess the potential for soil C sequestration with conversion of a conventional till (CT) continuous wheat system to a wheat-corn double cropping system and by implementing no till (NT) management for both continuous wheat and wheat-corn systems. To assess the influence of these management practices under a changing climate, we use two climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) at two time periods in the EPIC agro-ecosystent simulation model. The applied climate change scenarios are from the HadCM3 global climate model for the periods 2015-2045 and 2070-2099 which projects consistent increases in temperature and precipitation of greater than 5 degrees C and up to 300 mm by 2099. An increase in the variability of temperature is also projected and is, accordingly, applied in the simulations. The EPIC model indicates that winter wheat yields would increase on average by 0.2 Mg ha(-1) in the earlier period and by 0.8 Mg ha(-1) in the later period due to warmer nighttime temperatures and higher precipitation. Simulated yields were not significantly affected by imposed changes in crop management. Simulated soil organic C content was higher under both NT management and double cropping than under CT continuous wheat. The simulated changes in management were a more important factor in SOC changes than the scenario of climate change. Soil C sequestration rates for continuous wheat systems were increased by an average of 0.4 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) by NT in the earlier period and by 0.2 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) in the later period. With wheat-corn double cropping, NT increased sequestration rates by 0.8 and 0.4 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) for the earlier and later periods, respectively. The total C offset due to a shift from CT to NT under continuous wheat over 16 million hectares in the Huang-Hai Plain is projected to reach 240 Tg C in the earlier period and 180 Tg C in the later period. Corresponding C offsets for wheat-corn cropping are 675-495 Tg C. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Climate change impacts on agriculture and soil carbon sequestration potential in the Huang-Hai Plain of China,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2353881,"Farmers worldwide have to deal with increasing climate variability and weather extremes. Most of the previous research has focused on impacts on agricultural production, but little is known about the related social and economic impacts on farmers. In this study, we investigated the social and economic impact of extreme weather events (EWE) on farmers in Nepal, and explored how they coped with and adapted to heat waves and cold spells between 2012 and 2017. To address these aims, we conducted a survey of 350 farms randomly selected from the Bardiya and Banke districts of the Terai lowlands of Nepal. They were specifically asked to rate the impacts of extreme temperatures, as well as their effect on labour productivity and collective farmer health, and the detailed preventative measures they had implemented. About 84% of the farmers self-reported moderate or severe heat stress during the last five years, and about 85%, moderate or severe cold stress. Likewise, the majority of respondents reported that both farmer health and labour productivity had been compromised by EWEs. Productivity loss had a strong association with the perceived levels of heat and cold stress, which, in turn, were more likely to be reported by farmers with previous EWE experience. Potentially due to the increased care required during EWEs, those farmers with livestock reported increased heat and cold stress, as, surprisingly, did those who had implemented adaptation measures. Farmers seemed to be less prepared for potential threats of cold spells than heat waves, and therefore less likely to adopt coping strategies, since these are a recent phenomenon. This study identified some limitations. The cross sectional and self-reported data, as a common source of information to estimate health impact, level of heat/cold stress and labour productivity loss. Community-based education/community engagement programs could be developed to facilitate proactive adaptation.",Socio-Economic Impact of and Adaptation to Extreme Heat and Cold of Farmers in the Food Bowl of Nepal,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2326317,"Air pollution in atmosphere derives from complex non-linear relationships, involving anthropogenic and biogenic precursor emissions. Due to this complexity, Decision Support Systems (DSSs) are important tools to help Environmental Authorities to control/improve air quality, reducing human and ecosystems pollution impacts. DSSs implementing cost-effective or multi-objective methodologies require fast air quality models, able to properly describe the relations between emissions and air quality indexes. These, namely surrogate models (SM), are identified processing deterministic model simulation data. In this work, the Lazy Learning technique has been applied to reproduce the relations linking precursor emissions and pollutant concentrations. Since computational time has to be minimized without losing precision and accuracy, tests aimed at reducing the amount of input data have been performed on a case study over Lombardia Region in Northern Italy. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Lazy Learning based surrogate models for air quality planning,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2504903,"Trees exert a fundamental control on the hydrologic cycle, yet previous research is unclear about the nuanced relationship between forest cover and riverine flood frequency. In the Northeastern United States, warming air temperatures have resulted in a decline of Eastern Hemlock (EH), and subsequent increases in observed catchment water yield. We evaluated the possibility of EH loss leading to a changed flooding regime. We first investigated plant hydraulic regulation by root water uptake in EH and American Beech (AB; a candidate successional species) through stable isotope analysis of stream, soil water, and plant xylem water. EH xylem water showed evidence of deeper soil water uptake than AB during both wet and dry seasons, suggesting species succession may be an important mechanism for altering catchment ""plant accessible water."" Next, we estimated catchment flood frequency with mechanistic hydrologic simulations for present conditions, and two hypothetical cases where all EH is succeeded by AB. The largest change to catchment extreme discharge after AB succession coincided with fall season tropical moisture export-derived precipitation. We observed reduced sensitivity under future climatic forcing with an ensemble simulation of five localized constructed analogs downscaled general circulation models. Thus, the influence of forest composition on the flood regime may be most related to the temporal alignment of the synoptic-scale processes that generate Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones and regional plant phenology of the Northeast United States. Our results provide a justification for using physically based hydrologic models incorporating plant hydraulic regulation when evaluating future flooding frequency.",Possible Increases in Flood Frequency Due to the Loss of Eastern Hemlock in the Northeastern United States: Observational Insights and Predicted Impacts,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+1410928,"The Uruguay River basin experienced extensive land use change during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of expansion of agricultural area, while streamflow and precipitation increased during the same period. This study assesses the impact of land use change between 1960 and 2000 on streamflow using a hydrology model that explicitly accounts for the role of land cover. Although the model suggests that land use change could have large effects on streamflow, changes in mean streamflow are attributable to climatic variations and not to land cover change. On the other hand, a faster runoff response to precipitation was observed toward the end of the period, which does appear to be attributable to land cover change. Overall, however, the positive trend observed in the Uruguay River streamflow during the second half of the past century should be attributed to increased precipitation, rather than land cover change.",Land use impact on the Uruguay River discharge,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+693064,"Population centers in low, small islands have water supply problems that are among the most critical in the world. Limited land areas and extremely large soil hydraulic conductivities severely reduce surface runoff and surface storage, so that thin lenses of fresh groundwater floating over seawater comprise the major source of fresh water for people in many atolls. Atoll groundwater is extremely vulnerable to frequent El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related droughts, salinization due to storm surges and sea-level rise, and to human activities with vadose zone transit times from surface to shallow groundwater being less than 1 h. We examine the relationship between groundwater, rainfall, and ENSO events in a low atoll, Tarawa, in the central and western Pacifi c Republic of Kiribati. Droughts can last as long as 43 months and occur with a current frequency of 6 to 7 years. The impact of droughts on the quality and quantity of a fresh groundwater lens is explored. The local drawdown of the water table due to pumping from long horizontal infiltration galleries is found to be less than diumal tidal variations. The saturated hydraulic conductivity, K-0, of the Holocene unconsolidated coral sands was estimated from infiltration gallery drawdown in two islands. The geometric mean K-0 was 14.6 m d(-1) with a range from 0.9 to 111 m d-(1). These large K-0 values cause the rapid transmission of rainfall and surface pollutants through the unsaturated zone to groundwater. An example is given of Escherichia coli pollution due to traditional activities. Strategies for improving the adaptation of island communities and increasing resilience to climate change are discussed.",Climatic and human influences on groundwater in low atolls,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+58071,"Tropical forests are experiencing structural changes that may reduce carbon storage potential. The recent increase in liana abundance and biomass is one such potential change. Lianas account for approximately 25 per cent of woody stems and may have a strong impact on tree dynamics because severe liana infestation reduces tree growth and increases tree mortality. Based on forest inventory data from 0.1 ha plots, we evaluated the association between above-ground carbon stocks and liana abundance in 145 tropical forests worldwide. Liana abundance was negatively associated with carbon stocks of large trees (greater than 10 cm diameter), while it was not related to small trees (10 cm diameter or less). Results suggest that liana abundance may have pervasive effects on carbon stocks in tropical forests, as large trees store about 90 per cent of total forest carbon. We stress the need to include liana abundance in carbon stocks estimates, as this can enhance the accuracy of predictions of global changes in tropical forests.",Carbon stocks in tropical forests decrease with liana density,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2346278,"Sea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius rnelodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands and rapidly responds to changes in its physical environment, making it an excellent species with which to model how shorebird species may respond to habitat change related to sea-level rise and human development. The uncertainty and complexity in predicting sea-level rise, the responses of barrier island habitats to sea-level rise, and the responses of species to sea-level rise and human development necessitate a modeling approach that can link species to the physical habitat features that will be altered by changes in sea level and human development. We used a Bayesian network framework to develop a model that links piping plover nest presence to the physical features of their nesting habitat on a barrier island that is impacted by sea-level rise and human development, using three years of data (1999, 2002, and 2008) from Assateague Island National Seashore in Maryland. Our model performance results showed that we were able to successfully predict nest presence given a wide range of physical conditions within the model's dataset We found that model predictions were more successful when the ranges of physical conditions included in model development were varied rather than when those physical conditions were narrow. We also found that all model predictions had fewer false negatives (nests predicted to be absent when they were actually present in the dataset) than false positives (nests predicted to be present when they were actually absent in the dataset), indicating that our model correctly predicted nest presence better than nest absence. These results indicated that our approach of using a Bayesian network to link specific physical features to nest presence will be useful for modeling impacts of sea-level rise or human-related habitat change on barrier islands. We recommend that potential users of this method utilize multiple years of data that represent a wide range of physical conditions in model development, because the model performed less well when constructed using a narrow range of physical conditions. Further, given that there will always be some uncertainty in predictions of future physical habitat conditions related to sea-level rise and/or human development, predictive models will perform best when developed using multiple, varied years of data input. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",A Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of the federally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) using barrier island features,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1814439,"Evaluating streamflow changes is one of the most important tasks in hydrology, which provides significant insight regarding the trends that occur in streamflow due to climate variability and change. This study focused on investigating the presence of gradual changes (trends) and abrupt changes (shifts) in 240 unimpaired streamflow stations across the continental United States. Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) was used as the trend detection method, which is one of the techniques used in Spectral Analysis. The changes in streamflow in water-year were analyzed along with three dyadic scales (1 year, 2 years and 4 years) for 60 years i.e., 1951-2010. The non- parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to identify the trends, whereas the non-parametric Pettitt test was used to identify the shifts. The results showed a significant increase in streamflow in the Northeast and Midwest (Upper Mississippi and Ohio) regions and a decrease in the Pacific Northwest region. The central regions, especially Missouri, had mixed results with a propensity towards increasing trends. The southern U.S. regions did not show any overall significant trends. The shifts were found to be more spatially dispersed and were in agreement with the gradual trends. More stations showed trends and shifts with increasing time scales, which implies the presence of periodic occurrences at 4 years or higher. The presence of persistence was also observed to increase with the increasing time-scales. The results from the current study may assist water managers to efficiently plan and manage the water resources under changing climatic conditions.",Spectral Analysis of Streamflow for Continental USA,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+711534,"Adaptation to climate change has recently become a crucial element on the climate change policy agenda as it is now recognized that even the most stringent mitigation efforts may not arrest the effects of climate warming. The ecological impacts and costs of predicted weather-related extreme events, such as extreme temperatures, are not fully understood and may present unexpected challenges to conservationists that require solutions. In Portugal, provisioning of artificial nests has been the main driver of the spectacular increase in the endangered lesser kestrel population. Nevertheless, atypically high temperatures recorded during the 2009 breeding season coincided with a mortality of 22% of surveyed chicks in provided nests. Hot days did not affected prey delivery rates to the nestlings, suggesting that the die-off was due to chicks' acute dehydration. Chick mortality was significantly higher amongst younger individuals. Within survivors, physiological costs of high temperatures significantly affected chick growth and body condition at fledging. Nest-site microclimate was influenced by nest-type and compass orientation: wooden nest-boxes attained the highest temperatures, exceeding 55 degrees C when facing south, so explaining the recorded higher mortality, lower growth rates and lower fledging body condition among broods in these nests. Simulated scenarios of global warming with increasing occupation rate of artificial nests due to reductions in alternatives predicted a reduction in population growth rate. In the worst scenario, with a 100% occupancy of nest-boxes, the population growth would decline on average 7% per year. The impact of high temperatures on lesser kestrel breeding success highlights a need for actions to modify and research to adapt conservation efforts and future planning to account for climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Adapting conservation efforts to face climate change: Modifying nest-site provisioning for lesser kestrels,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+72186,"The subarctic environment of northernmost Sweden has changed over the past century, particularly elements of climate and cryosphere. This paper presents a unique geo-referenced record of environmental and ecosystem observations from the area since 1913. Abiotic changes have been substantial. Vegetation changes include not only increases in growth and range extension but also counterintuitive decreases, and stability: all three possible responses. Changes in species composition within the major plant communities have ranged between almost no changes to almost a 50 per cent increase in the number of species. Changes in plant species abundance also vary with particularly large increases in trees and shrubs (up to 600%). There has been an increase in abundance of aspen and large changes in other plant communities responding to wetland area increases resulting from permafrost thaw. Populations of herbivores have responded to varying management practices and climate regimes, particularly changing snow conditions. While it is difficult to generalize and scale-up the site-specific changes in ecosystems, this very site-specificity, combined with projections of change, is of immediate relevance to local stakeholders who need to adapt to new opportunities and to respond to challenges. Furthermore, the relatively small area and its unique datasets are a microcosm of the complexity of Arctic landscapes in transition that remains to be documented.",Ecosystem change and stability over multiple decades in the Swedish subarctic: complex processes and multiple drivers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+515912,"This paper investigates farmers' perceptions of climate change and variability in southwest Uganda and compares them with daily rainfall and temperature measurements from the 1960s to the present, including trends in daily rainfall and temperature, seasonality: changing probability of risk and intensity of rainfall events. Statistical analyses and modelling of rainfall and temperature were performed and contrasted with qualitative data collected through a semi-structured questionnaire. The fieldwork showed that farmers perceived regional climate to have changed in the past 20 years. In particular, farmers felt that temperature had increased and seasonality and variability had changed, with the first rainy season between March and May becoming more variable. Farmers reported detailed accounts of climate characteristics during specific years, with recent droughts in the late 1990s and late 2000s confirming local perceptions that there has been a shift in climate towards more variable conditions that are less favourable to production. There is a clear signal that temperature has been increasing in the climate data mid, to a lesser extent, evidence that the reliability of rains in the first season has decreased slightly However, rainfall measurements do not show a downward trend in rainfall amount, a significant shift in the intensity of rainfall events or in the start and end of the rainy seasons. We explore why there are some differences between farmers' perceptions and die climate data due to different associations of risk between ideal rainfall by farmers, including the amount and distribution needed for production, meteorological definitions of normal rainfall or the long-term statistical mean and its variation, and the impact of higher temperatures. The paper reflects on the methodological approach and considers the implications for communicating information about risk to users in order to support agricultural innovation.",SUPPORTING AGRICULTURAL INNOVATION IN UGANDA TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE RISK: LINKING CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY WITH FARMER PERCEPTIONS,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1305087,"Fresh water demand is rising due to factors such as population growth, economic development, and land use changes. At the same time, climate change is rendering the water supply even more uncertain for the future. Due to recurring water restrictions and increasing water-related fees triggered by droughts and water shortages, there is a widespread, growing discomfort with respect to future water availability. Among key stakeholders and local policy makers, this has led to an increased interest in modeling the availability of water resources, with the aim of developing and implementing the appropriate water resource infrastructure and management strategies. This paper examines the Washington metropolitan area (WMA) water supply system and uses a system dynamics approach as a planning tool to make an exploratory assessment of the adequacy of the study area's water supply system to meet future water demand under the influence of substantial droughts and climate change. This assessment finds that the study area is self-sufficient under normal climate conditions during the entire planning horizon but that it will be strained under moderately severe droughts. On the basis of the temperature, streamflow and precipitation projections made by climate change models specific to the WMA region, climate change is expected to improve the water supply reliability. However, climate change has uncertainty associated with it. One of the four climate models for the Potomac River basin projects a decrease in the precipitation and streamflow, which may result in a reduction in the water supply and the system's reliability. Regulating the price and the system losses are valuable tools that can be leveraged. But these policy interventions require stakeholder participation (price regulation) and capital investments (reduction of distribution losses). Finally, system reliability can also be improved by increasing water supplies.",Performance Assessment of a Water Supply System under the Impact of Climate Change and Droughts: Case Study of the Washington Metropolitan Area,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2367136,"The issue of inclusive practice, particularly as it pertains to how school staff address antisocial behavior to improve learning and life outcomes for children has become a primary topic of discussion among educational stakeholders. Within an action research framework, this investigation used a mixed-method multiple case study approach to investigate what impact character education has on school climate and pupil behavior within five primary schools in England. Data were collected using interviews, observations, and archived records. All data-sets suggest that a multicomponent socioculturally inspired program can have positive effects on teacher talk, student on-task behavior, and decrease disruptive incidences during class and office referrals for antisocial behavior. Moreover, according to participant reports, the findings indicate that there is a positive effect on the school's ability to meet the social, emotional, and cognitive needs of pupils within a multicultural setting following the implementation of a whole-school character education program.",School-wide mediated prosocial development: Applying a sociocultural understanding to inclusive practice and character education,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+777597,"Strategies for increasing the mobilization of forest biomass supply chains for bioenergy production require continuous assessments of the spatial and temporal availability of biomass feedstock. Using remote sensing products at a 250-m pixel resolution, estimates of theoretical biomass availability from harvest residues and fire-killed trees were computed by combining Canada-wide maps of forest attributes (2001) and of yearly (2002-2011) fires and harvests. At the national scale, biomass availability was estimated at 47 +/- 18 M ODT year from fire-killed trees and at 14 2 M ODT year(-1) from harvest residues. Mean biomass densities in burned and harvested pixels were estimated at 34 +/- 3.0 ODT ha(-1) and at 24 +/- 1.2 ODT ha (-1), respectively. Mean biomass densities also varied dramatically among ecozones, from 14 ODT ha(-1) to 206 ODT ha (-1) and from 6 ODT ha(-1) to 63 ODT ha (-1) for burned and harvested pixels, respectively. Spatial averaging with a 100-km radius window shows distinct hotspots of biomass availability across Canada. The largest hotspots from fire-killed trees reached 3.6 M ODT year (-1) in the Boreal Shield and the Boreal Plains ecozones of northern Alberta and Saskatchewan, where fires are large and frequent The largest hotspots from harvest residues reached 1.2 M ODT year (-1) in the Montane Cordillera ecozone of British Columbia. The use of spatially explicit remote sensing products yields estimates of theoretical biomass availability that are methodologically consistent across Canada. Future development should include validations with on-the-ground forest inventories as well as the factoring in of environmental, technical and economic considerations to implement operational biomass supply chains. Crown Copyright (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Estimating the spatial distribution and locating hotspots of forest biomass from harvest residues and fire-damaged stands in Canada's managed forests,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+209349,"Spring migration of birds in many parts of the world has advanced as the climate has become warmer. Variation in advancement among species has been proposed to correlate with geography and life history features, but individual studies have reported variable results, and general patterns have been elusive. In a quantitative review of data from 389 bird species sampled at 69 European and 23 North American localities, we evaluated associations between change in the timing of migration and life history (body size, molt, broodedness), ecology (habitat, diet, nest position), and geography. We confirmed that spring migration advanced: -0.214 d yr(-1) (95% CI: -0.266, -0.162) for first-arriving individuals and -0.104 d yr(-1) (-0.139, -0.071) for the median date of passage. The rate of change in autumn was more variable: 0.090 d yr(-1) (0.002, 0.176) delay for median passage and 0.019 d yr(-1) (-0.175, 0.204) delay for the date of last departure. The response during spring was weaker in the far north and in species that migrate long distances to the wintering area. Autumn migration became increasingly delayed in species that are large-bodied, molt before departure, and that feed on seeds, insects, or fruits. Variation among species, especially during autumn, was associated in part with constraints surrounding the timing of the postnuptial molt. The results suggest that ecological and life history features of species may influence their ability to respond to climate change.",Ecological and life history correlates of changes in avian migration timing in response to climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2058648,"Two pocket beaches, Ramírez and Pocitos (Montevideo, Uruguay) are analyzed to assessing their evolution (erosion/accretion) associated with human interventions and climatic forcings from 1927-2008. A multitemporal study was conducted using GIS, long series of aerial photos, satellite imagery, survey of historical background, and statistical analysis. Qualitative indicators of the stability of the beach area are proposed. The relevance of this methodology is analyzed on beaches whose fluctuations tend to mask their long-term evolution. Both beaches remain relatively stable but fluctuating since 1927, with slight loss of surface, especially in Ramírez. The influence of the following factors is discussed: i) human interventions; ii) ENSO events; iii) storm surges; iv) changes in beach area according to the Bruun rule and rising sea level in Montevideo. Although the four of them appear to have acted in different periods, the evidence is not conclusive regarding their relative quantitative importance. This article highlights the importance of using long series of remote sensing and historical analysis to interpret processes linked to inertia of the past in environments that have been modified from longstanding. The trend analysis of these two urban pocket beaches allows to infer that their resilience has not been affected yet, which would allow them to face not extreme climatic stressors. For the purpose of better management it is recommended to: i) conduct continuous monitoring; ii) minimize the actions of mechanized cleaning and sand losses by leakage or removal; iii) implement the reconstruction of natural structures such as primary dunes; and iv) apply the methodology explained in this paper in other Montevideo urban beaches to better understand the climate forcings.",Long-term morphological evolution of urban pocket beaches in Montevideo (Uruguay): Impacts of coastal interventions and links to climate forcing,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2306205,"The understanding of the role of environment on the pathogenesis of stroke is gaining importance in the context of climate change. This study analyzes the temporal pattern of ischemic stroke (IS) in Madrid, Spain, during a 13-year period (2001-2013), and the relationship between ischemic stroke (admissions and deaths) incidence and environmental factors on a daily scale by using a quasi-Poisson regression model. To assess potential delayed and non-linear effects of air pollutants and Apparent Temperature (AT), a biometeorological index which represents human thermal comfort on IS, a lag non-linear model was fitted in a generalized additive model. The mortality rate followed a downward trend over the studied period, however admission rates progressively increased. Our results show that both increases and decreases in AT had a marked relationship with IS deaths, while hospital admissions were only associated with low AT. When analyzing the cumulative effects (for lag 0-14 days), with an AT of 1.7 degrees C (percentile 5%) a RR of 1.20 (95% CI, 1.05-1.37) for IS mortality and a RR of 1.09 (95% CI, 0.91-1.29) for morbidity is estimated. Concerning gender differences, men show higher risks of mortality in low temperatures and women in high temperatures. No significant relationship was found between air pollutant concentrations and IS morbi-mortality, but this result must be interpreted with caution, since there are strong spatial fluctuations of the former between nearby geographical areas that make it difficult to perform correlation analyses.","A time series analysis of the relationship between apparent temperature, air pollutants and ischemic stroke in Madrid, Spain",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+138509,"In the temperate climate zone in Europe the composition of the diet of predatory vertebrates shows evident variability between the warm and cold season. However, the recently observed climate warming can mitigate the effect of snow cover and low temperatures on the winter foraging ecology of raptors, thus affecting trophic webs in ecosystems. We analysed diet variability in the tawny owl Strix aluco, between the warm and cold seasons of four unusually warm years (as compared to reference years of 1950-2000) in two habitats (forest vs. farmland) in Central Poland. The most important prey group in the tawny owl's diet were mammals, constituting over 80% of prey items. There were distinct diet differences between the two seasons: insectivorous mammals, birds and amphibians were caught more often during the warm season, and Muridae and Arvicolidae during the cold season. The proportion of insectivorous mammals, voles and amphibians was significantly higher in forest than in farmland. Diet diversity, analysed with rarefaction methods and expressed as the expected cumulative mammal species number for a given number of randomly sampled preyed mammals, was independent of season and higher in forest than in the agricultural habitat. We conclude that even during unusually warm years tawny owls change significantly their feeding habits between the warm and cold season. The effect of season, habitat and weather factors on diet variability in raptors are discussed.",Seasonal and habitat variation in the diet of the tawny owl (Strix aluco) in central Poland during unusually warm years,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1290785,"Climate warming has the potential to alter ecosystem function through temperature-dependent changes in individual metabolic rates. The temperature sensitivity of phytoplankton metabolism is especially relevant, since these microorganisms sustain marine food webs and are major drivers of biogeochemical cycling. Phytoplankton metabolic rates increase with temperature when nutrients are abundant, but it is unknown if the same pattern applies under nutrient-limited growth conditions, which prevail over most of the ocean. Here we use continuous cultures of three cosmopolitan and biogeochemically relevant species (Synechococcus sp., Skeletonema costatum and Emiliania huxleyi) to determine the temperature dependence (activation energy, Ea) of metabolism under different degrees of nitrogen (N) limitation. We show that both CO2 fixation and respiration rates increase with N supply but are largely insensitive to temperature. Ea of photosynthesis (0.11 +/- 0.06 eV, mean +/- SE) and respiration (0.04 +/- 0.17 eV) under N-limited growth is significantly smaller than Ea of growth rate under nutrient-replete conditions (0.77 +/- 0.06 eV). The reduced temperature dependence of metabolic rates under nutrient limitation can be explained in terms of enzyme kinetics, because both maximum reaction rates and halfsaturation constants increase with temperature. Our results suggest that the direct, stimulating effect of rising temperatures upon phytoplankton metabolic rates will be circumscribed to ecosystems with high-nutrient availability.",Nutrient limitation suppresses the temperature dependence of phytoplankton metabolic rates,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+60376,"Phenological changes in response to climatic warming have been detected across a wide range of organisms. Butterflies stand out as one of the most popular groups of indicators of climatic change, given that, firstly, they are poikilothermic and, secondly, have been the subject of thorough monitoring programmes in several countries for a number of decades. Here we provide for the first time strong evidence of phenological change as a consequence of recent climatic warming in butterflies at a Spanish site in the northwest Mediterranean Basin. By means of the widely used Butterfly Monitoring Scheme methodology, three different phenological parameters were analysed for the most common species to test for trends over time and relationships with temperature and precipitation. Between 1988 and 2002, there was a tendency for earlier first appearance dates in all 17 butterfly species tested, and significant advances in mean flight dates in 8 out of 19 species. On the other hand, the shape of the curve of adult emergence did not show any regular pattern. These changes paralleled an increase of 1 - 1.5 degreesC in mean February, March and June temperatures. Likewise, a correlation analysis indicated the strong negative effect of spring temperature on phenological parameters (i.e. higher temperatures tended to produce phenological advances), and the opposite effect of precipitation in certain months. In addition, there was some evidence to indicate that phenological responses may differ between taxonomic lineages or species with similar diets. We discuss the consequences that these changes may have on species' population abundances, especially given the expected increase in aridity in the Mediterranean Basin caused by current climatic warming. We predict that varying degrees of phenological flexibility may account for differences in species' responses and, for multivoltine species, predict strong selection favouring local seasonal adaptations such as diapause phenomena or migratory behaviour.",Effects of climatic change on the phenology of butterflies in the northwest Mediterranean Basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+789901,"Understanding the actual impacts of climatic warming on winter-sown wheat production will benefit cultivar breeding efforts and agronomic innovations and may help to improve food security. Therefore, we conducted a comprehensive study across the main Chinese winter wheat cropping regions, comprising field warming experiments at four locations and an analysis of 36 years of winter wheat yield data. In the field warming experiments, an increase of 1.0 degrees C in nighttime temperature enhanced wheat yield by 10.1% on average (P < 0.05). Warming-induced enhancement of 1000-grain weight explained most of these yield increases. Warming shortened the length of pre-flowering phase by 5.4 days, while it prolonged the length of post-flowering phase by 3.8 days. Grain yield increases with warming were similar across experimental sites, even though warming-induced changes in the length of growth periods decreased with increasing ambient temperature. Our analysis of the historical data set was consistent with our field warming experiments; between 1980 and 2015, the major Chinese cropping regions experienced significant warming, especially in daily minimum temperature. Across the historical data set, daily minimum temperature was positively correlated with wheat yield (142.0 kg ha(-1) degrees C-1). Our findings are inconsistent with previous reports of yield decreases with warming and may help to inform policy decisions and agronomic innovations of Chinese wheat production to better cope with future climate warming.",Nighttime warming increases winter-sown wheat yield across major Chinese cropping regions,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2330924,"The Pacific slope of North America's Cretaceous to late Eocene record of the pteriid bivalve Pteria Scopoli, 1777 is studied in detail for the first time. It is mostly represented by Pteria pellucida (Gabb, 1864) and Pteria clarki (Weaver & Palmer, 1922), which are redescribed and refined in their stratigraphic distributions. Pteria pellucida, known from southwestern Oregon and California, was previously reported ambiguously as being both Cretaceous and Eocene age but is actually restricted to the Late Cretaceous (early Turonian to late Santonian). Pteria clarki ranges in age from middle to middle late Eocene. It was previously reported as occurring only in Washington State but also occurs in California. Other species are Pteria lochi, sp. nov., of late late Campanian to possibly early Maastrichtian in age, and Pteria sp., of late Paleocene age; both are found in California. The definition of Pteria is expanded based on the presence of weak radial ribs on P. load sp. nov. The so-called Pteria bowel Nelson, 1925, from southern California and of late Paleocene age, has a hinge similar to that found in bakevelliids. Phelopteria Stephenson, 1952 is recognized for the first time as a junior synonym of Pteria. Specimens of the studied species were collected from shallow-marine, fine-grained siliciclastics that accumulated under warm-temperate conditions during the Late Cretaceous and under subtropical conditions during the Paleogene. Specimens are rare, except at a few localities. Pteria most likely originated during the Jurassic in the Old World Tethys Sea region. It arrived in the study area during the early Turonian, which coincided with the highest sea-level stand and the warmest waters of the Late Cretaceous.",Cretaceous and Paleogene Pteria Bivalves from the Pacific Slope of North America,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+595815,"Many recent studies have demonstrated that CO2 increase is driving the climate in Mediterranean areas towards important changes, mainly represented by a temperature increase and a contemporaneous rainfall reduction. Starting from this premise, the primary aim of the present study is to investigate the effects of potential climatic changes on vegetational stress in Mediterranean ecosystems. Particular attention is here focussed only on the plants' water stress in water controlled ecosystems, mainly related to soil water balance. The interactions among climate, soil and vegetation are evaluated numerically by means of an ecohydrological model. In this work, different future climatic scenarios and their effects on woody and grassy vegetation are analysed, and the results show an increase in water stress for woody and grass vegetations: trees could suffer more because of the higher evapotranspiration rates and the decrease of the winter recharge. Results are strictly dependent on the future rainfall seasonal distribution and the possible modification in rainfall frequency and intensity. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Climate changes' effects on vegetation water stress in Mediterranean areas,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3984107,"In this literature review, the quantity of drained peatland forests, the present state of their growing stock and the needs for further drainage operations and discussed in southern Lapland in Finland were analysed and presented. In addition, the possibilities for wood procurement operations during growing season and non-frost period in winter are reviewed. Information and data for this review were gathered from the statistics such as National Forest Inventories in Finland, as well as literature. There are totally 0.823 million hectares of drained peatlands in southern Lapland covering 24 % of the total wood production area in this region. Out of this area, about 0.3 million hectares are too poor for productive forestry. About 0.217 million hectares of this area are sites, where the annual stand growth is less than 1 m3/ha. At present, large areas of drained peatland forests have reached their stage of first commercial thinning. Most of these forests are Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) dominated rather young stands, and the structure of the growing stock is usually uneven-aged and -sized and the spatial variation in the stand density is large. The mean growing stock is substantially low, ca 68 m3/ha, in southern Lapland. The most important factor affecting the performance of all silvicultural and wood procurement operations of peatland forests is the height of water table level in peat. It further affects the need of ditch network maintenance as well as even on the amounts of greenhouse gas emissions from peat. Additional knowledge is needed on the factors affecting the water table level and how it would be possible to control by management. Timber yields of the thinning harvests in peatland forest are generally low in northern Finland. It seems that the economic viability of the thinnings could be improved by adopting an uneven-aged type forest management approach. It could combine economic wood production targets of forest owners with considering the impacts of forestry on GHG emissions and carbon stocks. On the other hand, it has been predicted that global warming may improve wood production capacity of poor sites increasing the need for wood procurement during continuously elongating non-frost period of the year (e.g. in autumn). However, the present guidelines of the soil carrying capacity for successful timber haulage (aiming at avoiding rutting) require large growing stock volumes (&gt;120 m3/ha) in the forests, which are high in northern conditions. Therefore, the development of the guidelines to produce specific ones suitable to the conditions prevailing in southern Lapland is needed. Those should be taken into account the development of the hauling machinery as well as techno-economic, environmental and ecological criteria in wood procurement planning. © Suoseura - Finnish Peatland Society","The development opportunities of silviculture and wood procurement on drained peatland forests in southern Lapland, Finland",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+60979,"The global ocean and atmosphere are warming. There is increasing evidence suggesting that, in addition to other environmental factors, climate change is affecting species distributions and local population dynamics. Additionally, as a consequence of the growing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the oceans are taking up increasing amounts of this CO2, causing ocean pH to decrease (ocean acidification). The relative impacts of ocean acidification on population dynamics have yet to be investigated, despite many studies indicating that there will be at least a sublethal impact on many marine organisms, particularly key calcifying organisms. Using empirical data, we forced a barnacle (Semibalanus balanoides) population model to investigate the relative influence of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification on a population nearing the southern limit of its geographic distribution. Hindcast models were compared to observational data from Cellar Beach (southwestern United Kingdom). Results indicate that a declining pH trend (-0.0017 unit/yr), indicative of ocean acidification over the past 50 years, does not cause an observable impact on the population abundance relative to changes caused by fluctuations in temperature. Below the critical temperature (here T-crit = 13.1 degrees C), pH has a more significant affect on population dynamics at this southern range edge. However, above this value, SST has the overriding influence. At lower SST, a decrease in pH (according to the National Bureau of Standards, pH(NBS)) from 8.2 to 7.8 can significantly decrease the population abundance. The lethal impacts of ocean acidification observed in experiments on early life stages reduce cumulative survival by similar to 25%, which again will significantly alter the population level at this southern limit. Furthermore, forecast predictions from this model suggest that combined acidification and warming cause this local population to die out 10 years earlier than would occur if there was only global warming and no concomitant decrease in pH.",Can ocean acidification affect population dynamics of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides at its southern range edge?,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2463952,"Climate change has been identified as one of the most important drivers of wildlife population dynamics. The in-depth knowledge of the complex relationships between climate and population sizes through density dependent demographic processes is important for understanding and predicting population shifts under climate change, which requires integrated population models (IPMs) that unify the analyses of demography and abundance data. In this study we developed an IPM based on Gaussian approximation to dynamic N-mixture models for large scale population data. We then analyzed four decades (1972-2013) of mallard Anas platyrhynchos breeding population survey, band-recovery and climate data covering a large spatial extent from North American prairies through boreal habitat to Alaska. We aimed to test the hypothesis that climate change will cause shifts in population dynamics if climatic effects on demographic parameters that have substantial contribution to population growth vary spatially. More specifically, we examined the spatial variation of climatic effects on density dependent population demography, identified the key demographic parameters that are influential to population growth, and forecasted population responses to climate change. Our results revealed that recruitment, which explained more variance of population growth than survival, was sensitive to the temporal variation of precipitation in the southern portion of the study area but not in the north. Survival, by contrast, was insensitive to climatic variation. We then forecasted a decrease in mallard breeding population density in the south and an increase in the northwestern portion of the study area, indicating potential shifts in population dynamics under future climate change. Our results implied that different strategies need to be considered across regions to conserve waterfowl populations in the face of climate change. Our modelling approach can be adapted for other species and thus has wide application to understanding and predicting population dynamics in the presence of global change.",Integrated modeling predicts shifts in waterbird population dynamics under climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+97683,"The paper looks at two metrics of flood events: flood severity (related to flood frequency) and flood magnitude (related to flood severity, as above, but also to flood duration and affected area). A time series of flood information, over 25 years, collected by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, is used to describe the spatio-temporal variability of large floods in Europe. Direct factors responsible for changes in flood severity and magnitude over time may be related to both climate and ground surface changes. Indirect links between flood severity/magnitude and socio-economic indices occur via flood risk reduction activities, land-use change and land-cover change. The present analysis shows an increasing trend during the 25-year period in the number of reported floods exceeding severity and magnitude thresholds.","Large floods in Europe, 1985-2009",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1782656,"Climate change is one of the greatest social and economic challenges today. It is a global problem which needs a global solution and for this each country has to play its part in reaching that global solution through local actions. Adverse weather conditions are impacting the society on all fronts, be it food, habitat, livelihood, or income. There is an urgent need to take into consideration input from all segments of society. This paper deals with one such segment: the indigenous communities who have the vast potential to adapt in response to climate change. The paper deals with a general review of the efforts of indigenous communities across Asia with a specialized focus on the capacity of indigenous communities in India in combating climate change. The recognition that many environmental problems are local in nature is a rationale behind including the indigenous communities in addressing this global issue. These communities constitute an insignificant percentage of the global population and their contribution to the greenhouse gas emissions is minimal. A collaboration between these communities and the climate scientists could evolve solutions which go beyond the need to mitigate emissions and development of clean development mechanisms. Presenting a holistic approach of the indigenous communities in coping with climate change, the paper provides an input to the policy makers on including the views of stakeholders from this sector to deal with the local needs and adopt a balanced approach between adaptation and mitigation strategies. It also gives an insight to the general public into more alternatives to climate change solutions.",Indigenous Communities and Climate Change Policy: An Inclusive Approach,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1432148,"To develop silvicultural methods for dipterocarp species in degraded lands in a tropical monsoon climate, we examined uneven-aged forest management, in which dipterocarp trees were planted under nurse trees, by monitoring their growth for 20 years. In 1989, seedlings of four dipterocarp species (Dipterocarpus alatus, D. turbinatus, Hopea odorata and Shorea henryana) were planted beneath a 3-year-old Leucaena leucocephala plantation and in an open site in Sakaerat, north-east Thailand. The survival rate and tree size of the dipterocarp seedlings were monitored at both sites until 1995. Surand svival rates of the dipterocarp trees were significantly better under the Leucaena plantation. However, no apparent difference was observed in basal area between both sites, since saw vigorous growth of the surviving seedlings compensated for the loss of dead seedlings at the open site. Our results showed that D. alatus and H. odorata could be planted in an open site due to the vigorous growth of the seedlings, but that it was preferable to plant D. turbinatus beneath nurse trees. The Leucaena plantation was partially thinned to 50, 75 and 100% (clear-cut) in 1993, and the survival rate and growth of the dipterocarps was monitored until 2009. Thinning had no apparent effect on the survival rates of the dipterocarp seedlings. Although relative growth rates (RGR) of the dipterocarps reduced after thinning, thinning rates did not affect the growth of the dipterocarps. After thinning, dipterocarp trees overtook Leucaena in height at all thinning rates, possibly from 1999. An uneven-aged system combining Leucaena and dipterocarp trees is likely to be applicable to several dipterocarp species.",Growth Performance of Four Dipterocarp Species Planted in a Leucaena leucocephala Plantation and in an Open Site on Degraded Land under a Tropical Monsoon Climate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+128070,"The spatial distribution of marine fishes can change for many reasons, including density-dependent distributional shifts. Previous studies show mixed support for either the proportional-density model (PDM; no relationship between abundance and area occupied, supported by ideal-free distribution theory) or the basin model (BM; positive abundance-area relationship, supported by density-dependent habitat selection theory). The BM implies that fishes move towards preferred habitat as the population declines. We estimate the average relationship using bottom trawl data for 92 fish species from six marine regions, to determine whether the BM or PDM provides a better description for sea-bottom-associated fishes. We fit a spatio-temporal model and estimate changes in effective area occupied and abundance, and combine results to estimate the average abundance-area relationship as well as variability among taxa and regions. The average relationship is weak but significant (0.6% increase in area for a 10% increase in abundance), whereas only a small proportion of species-region combinations show a negative relationship (i.e. shrinking area when abundance increases). Approximately one-third of combinations (34.6%) are predicted to increase in area more than 1% for every 10% increase in abundance. We therefore infer that population density generally changes faster than effective area occupied during abundance changes. Gadiformes have the strongest estimated relationship (average 1.0% area increase for every 10% abundance increase) followed by Pleuronectiformes and Scorpaeniformes, and the Eastern Bering Sea shows a strong relationship between abundance and area occupied relative to other regions. We conclude that the BM explains a small but important portion of spatial dynamics for sea-bottom-associated fishes, and that many individual populations merit cautious management during population declines, because a compressed range may increase the efficiency of harvest.",Density-dependent changes in effective area occupied for sea-bottom-associated marine fishes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+792989,"Shifts in flowering dates have been associated with climate change and warming temperatures. However, the influence of temperature and precipitation on annual phenology patterns in semiarid ecosystems is not well understood. We observed the flowering stages of 21 shortgrass steppe species from 1995 to 2014. We compared first and last flowering dates and used climatic data to interpret relationships between the timing of flowering and temperature and precipitation. On average, the first flowering dates of 21 species advanced 0.53 d over the 20-yr period. This advance was significantly related to an increase in annual March-September mean temperature in that first flowering date advanced at the rate of 7.5 d degrees C-1. The advance of the first flowering date was significantly related to increased spring temperatures in early-season species. Late-blooming species flowered longer; this delay in end of flowering was significantly related to wetter conditions. Significant advances in first flowering date were related to increasing temperatures over time, suggesting a response to climate change. In the water-limited shortgrass steppe, the effect of the environment on flowering phenology is controlled by warmer temperatures early in the growing season and precipitation later in the growing season.",Differential effects of temperature and precipitation on early- vs. late-flowering species,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+41071,"This chapter addresses changes in weather and climate events relevant to extreme impacts and disasters. An extreme (weather or climate) event is generally defined as the occurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends (‘tails’) of the range of observed values of the variable. Some climate extremes (e.g., droughts, floods) may be the result of an accumulation of weather or climate events that are, individually, not extreme themselves (though their accumulation is extreme). As well, weather or climate events, even if not extreme in a statistical sense, can still lead to extreme conditions or impacts, either by crossing a critical threshold in a social, ecological, or physical system, or by occurring simultaneously with other events. A weather system such as a tropical cyclone can have an extreme impact, depending on where and when it approaches landfall, even if the specific cyclone is not extreme relative to other tropical cyclones. Conversely, not all extremes necessarily lead to serious impacts. [3.1] Many weather and climate extremes are the result of natural climate variability (including phenomena such as El Niño), and natural decadal or multi-decadal variations in the climate provide the backdrop for anthropogenic climate changes. Even if there were no anthropogenic changes in climate, a wide variety of natural weather and climate extremes would still occur. [3.1] A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of weather and climate extremes, and can result in unprecedented extremes. Changes in extremes can also be directly related to changes in mean climate, because mean future conditions in some variables are projected to lie within the tails of present-day conditions. Nevertheless, changes in extremes of a climate or weather variable are not always related in a simple way to changes in the mean of the same variable, and in some cases can be of opposite sign to a change in the mean of the variable. Changes in phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation or monsoons could affect the frequency and intensity of extremes in several regions simultaneously. © Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2012.",Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+423350,"Though our changing and volatile climate system can produce many disasters and crises worldwide, drought is considered by some to be the most devastating. The potential of longevity for this gradual climatic phenomenon reaps major social and environmental impacts. A quick look over the past century provides ample evidence of its destructive nature, whether in the African famine of the late 1980's or the dust bowl of the 1930's in the American prairie. However, minor and seasonal droughts that occur every year around the globe have major impacts as well. The severity of drought has many implications to society, both environmental and economic. However, its impact on agriculture and water availability is especially direct. Several projects conducted through the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, recognizing the importance of drought, are using space science technology through satellite derived data to better assess, mitigate and understand agricultural drought and better manage the water resources in the South-eastern United States. The primary tools used are the Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model and the Water Supply Stress Index (WASSI) model. These tools are equipped with high resolution data from satellite derived variables that include: Satellite derived insolation, temperature and dew points from GOES to enhance evapotranspiration algorithms and provide accurate real-time input for the crop model; ALEXI, a thermal IR based land surface model that will be used for soil moisture and ET validation; and eMODIS, a 7 day spectral data set that will be used for vegetation indices. These high resolution tools will produce near real time information of the agricultural crops throughout the region including crop water stress, potential yields and soil moisture. The incorporation of an enhanced WASSI model will increase the spatial and temporal detail of drought and water stress maps and have the potential to apply short term forecast and future climate scenarios. This information, made possible by satellite data, will be made available to stakeholders and policy and decision makers throughout the region. This paper will express the usefulness of satellite and remotely sensed data, and how it is needed to create drought products of this detail. A thorough review of these products and example results up to date will be presented. In addition, how these tools could be extrapolated and used in other regions around the world will be explored. Copyright © (2012) by the International Astronautical Federation.",Assesment and mitigation of agricultural drought and water availability in the south-eastern united states using space science technology,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1780883,"Using the McArthur Fire Danger Index as a framework for discussion, this paper provides an overview of atmospheric issues of fire management in the tropics, with particular reference to eastern Indonesia and northern Australia. After a brief discussion of the background meteorology of the region, atmospheric influences on regional fire regimes that may operate over a range of time scales are examined. Longer-term influences associated with predicted greenhouse warming suggest an increased fire danger for the region. Inter-seasonal and inter-annual climate variabilities associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon are also shown to impact on the regional fire regime. While impacts of seasonal drought associated with the north-south movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) are well known to fire managers, general atmospheric transport patterns associated with movement of the ITCZ are not. Some results of recent trajectory modelling are presented to elucidate these patterns. Intra-seasonal and synoptic-scale influences on regional fire regimes, especially as they impact southern parts of the region, are also discussed. Finally, suggestions are made about some priority areas for further research.",Atmospheric issues for fire management in Eastern Indonesia and Northern Australia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+145707,"Urbanization, an important driver of climate change and pollution, alters both biotic and abiotic ecosystem properties within, surrounding, and even at great distances from urban areas. As a result, research challenges and environmental problems must be tackled at local, regional, and global scales. Ecosystem responses to land change are complex and interacting, occurring on all spatial and temporal scales as a consequence of connectivity of resources, energy, and information among social, physical, and biological systems. We propose six hypotheses about local to continental effects of urbanization and pollution, and an operational research approach to test them. This approach focuses on analysis of ""megapolitan"" areas that have emerged across North America, but also includes diverse wildland-to-urban gradients and spatially continuous coverage of land change. Concerted and coordinated monitoring of land change and accompanying ecosystem responses, coupled with simulation models, will permit robust forecasts of how land change and human settlement patterns will alter ecosystem services and resource utilization across the North American continent. This, in turn, can be applied globally.",The changing landscape: ecosystem responses to urbanization and pollution across climatic and societal gradients,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3949830,"Abstract. Temperatures of small succulent plants, such as species in the genera Haworthia and Lithops, are highly influenced by temperatures of the surrounding soil. Indeed, the minimum and the maximum temperatures of the upper leaf epidermis of Haworthia retusa. H. turgida. Lithops leslei, and L. turbiniformis were generally within 1°C of the accompanying soil surface temperatures. An energybudget model closely predicted such soil‐to‐plant temperature differences as well as the effect of the greater convective exchange for the protruding Haworthia species compared with the Lithops species, which were flush with the soil surface. Although a lower shortwave absorptance would reduce maximum shoot temperatures, the shortwave absorptances of all four species were similar to those of the soil in their respective native habitats in South Africa. Tolerances of the four species to low and to high temperatures at three different day/night air temperatures (15°C/5°C, 30°C/20°C, and 45°C/35°C) were analysed using cellular accumulation of a vital stain, neutral red. Chlorenchyma cells were slightly more tolerant of extreme temperatures than were cells of the water‐storage parenchyma. In this regard, H. retusa survived low and high temperatures that killed the water‐storage parenchyma but not the chlorenchyma. Acclimation to low temperatures and to high temperatures, which was exhibited by all four species, led to estimated tolerances to 1 h at −16°C and 68°C. Although the low temperature tolerance is not particularly noteworthy, very few vascular plants are reportedly able to tolerate such high temperatures. Copyright © 1989, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved",Shoot temperatures and thermal tolerances for succulent species of Haworthia and Lithops,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+293480,"On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue(1-3). That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold(4-6). Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model(7), that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case(3). Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice(6); instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points(5,6,8). Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models(9) and observations(6,10) represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers(3) are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem(11) and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout and beyond the Arctic(12).",Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1292246,"Mountain regions are particularly susceptible and influenced by the effects of climate change. In the Alps, temperature increased two times faster than in the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th century. As an immediate response in certain tree species, spring phenological phases, such as budburst and flowering, have tended to occur earlier. However, recent studies have shown a slowing down of phenological shifts during the last two decades compared to earlier periods, which might be caused by warmer winters. Indeed, cold temperatures are required to break bud dormancy that occurs in early fall; and dormancy break is a prerequisite for cell elongation to take place in spring when temperature conditions are warm enough. Here we aimed at evaluating the effects of winter warming vs. spring warming on the phonological shift along mountain elevation gradients. We tested the hypothesis that a lack of chilling temperature during winter delayed dormancy release and subsequently spring phonological phases. For this, we used eight years of temperature and phenological records for five tree species (Betula penctula, Fraxinus excelsior, Corylus avellana, Picea abies and Larix deridna) gathered with the citizen science program Phenoclim (www.phenoclim.org) deployed over the French Alps. Our results showed that for similar preseason (i.e. after dormancy break) temperatures, warmer winters significantly delayed budburst and flowering along the elevation gradient (+ 0.9 to + 5.6 days degrees C-1) except for flowering of Corylus and budburst of Picea. For similar cold winter temperatures, warmer preseasons significantly advanced budburst and flowering along the elevation gradient (- 5.3 to -8.4 days degrees C-1). On average, the effect of winter warming was 2.3 times lower than the effect of spring warming. We also showed that warmer winter temperature conditions have a significantly larger effect at lower elevations. As a consequence, the observed delaying effect of winter warming might be beneficial to trees by reducing the risk of exposure to late spring frost on a short term. This could further lead to partial dormancy break at lower elevations before the end of the 21st century, which, in turn, may alter bud development and flowering and so tree fitness.",Warmer winters reduce the advance of tree spring phenology induced by warmer springs in the Alps,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1025395,"Satellite-derived land surface temperature (skin temperature) provides invaluable information for data-sparse high elevation and Arctic regions. However, the relationship between satellite-derived clear-sky skin temperature and various downscaled air temperature products for snow covered sub-Arctic alpine regions remain poorly understood, such that trend analysis or air temperature product integration is difficult. We compared monthly average air temperatures from two independent downscaled temperature products to MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and air temperature at nine meteorological stations situated above tree-line in the southwest Yukon, Canada, between May and August 2008 for a full range of snow cover fractions. We found that both down scaled products generally agreed with LST for the low elevation, snow-free, vegetation classes. However, a systematic cold bias in Average LST emerged for snow fractions greater than approximately 40%, and this bias increased in magnitude as snow cover increased. In these situations the downscaled air temperatures were 57 degrees C warmer than Average LST for snow fractions of >90%, and this pattern was largely independent of the number of measurements of LST within a month. Maximum LST was similar to average air temperatures for high snow fractions, but Minimum LST was colder by 10 degrees C or more for all snow fractions. Consequently, the average of Maximum and Minimum LST produces the cold bias, compared to air temperature, for high snow cover fractions. Air temperature measured at nine meteorological monitoring stations located between elevations of 1408-2690 m, on land cover classes Barren, Sparsely Vegetated or Permanent Snow and Ice, confirmed the cold bias results when incorporating Minimum LST in monthly averages. For snow fractions of <40% the RMSE for all of the temperature products was <2.5 degrees C when compared to station air temperature and all biases were positive and <2.0 degrees C. For snow fractions of >40%, the average LST bias became strongly negative at -4.5 degrees C, and the RMSE increased to 6.1 degrees C, whereas the downscaled products bias and RMSE were similar to those from snow fractions of <40%. A weak warm bias for all the temperature products occurred for small snow fractions over non-forested land cover classes. Downscaled air temperature fields show physically real differences from Average LST in spring and summer, caused by snow cover and the interplay of Maximum and Minimum LST. These findings indicate that the integration of MODIS 1ST with downscaled air temperature products or local air temperature requires the incorporation of snow cover. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.",Spring and summer monthly MODIS LST is inherently compared to air temperature in snow covered sub-Arctic mountains,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2307290,"One goal of wine industry logistics is to preserve wine quality during transit between winemaker and wine consumer. This study monitored temperatures during bulk shipments from Australia to Germany and investigated their impact on chemical and sensory characteristics of Chardonnay wine. The objective was to optimize scheduling and logistic conditions and determine the critical time-temperature relation for intercontinental shipments, thus minimizing unfavorable changes in chemical and sensory composition. Three intercontinental shipments were conducted between November 2015 and October 2016; each shipment lasted between 58 and 63 days and comprised six 20-foot containers holding 24,000 L of wine in flexitanks. The containers were positioned at three different locations on the vessel: on deck, below deck near the bow, and below deck further aft. Air temperature inside containers ranged from 4 to 47 degrees C, with peak temperatures reached during daytimes in ports. Different container locations on the vessel contributed to a mean wine temperature difference of 5 degrees C. Shipping during north- and southward equinox kept mean wine temperatures 6 degrees C lower than shipping during June and December solstice. Decreased SO, content and increased yellow color were observed for containers exposed to higher temperatures. Ethyl decanoate, ethyl dodecanoate, and phenylethyl acetate were lower in wine transported via container ships than in air-cargoed wines, while diethyl malate and diethyl succinate, decanoic acid, and dodecanoic acid increased as a result of the temperature impact during transportation with the container ship. Descriptive sensory analysis revealed increased honey intensity and decreased freshness when shipping scheduling and logistic conditions were associated with high temperatures. The loss of freshness was most pronounced when wine temperatures reached >25 degrees C.",Impact of Temperature during Bulk Shipping on the Chemical Composition and Sensory Profile of a Chardonnay Wine,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+590579,"Evidence from the Northern Hemisphere and simple theoretical models both predict that climate change could force southern African birds to undergo poleward range shifts. We document the chronology and habitat use of 18 regionally indigenous bird species that colonised the extreme south-western corner of Africa after the late 1940s. This incorporates a period of almost four decades of observed regional warming in the Western Cape, South Africa. Observations of these colonisation events concur with a 'climate change' explanation, assuming extrapolation of Northern Hemisphere results and simplistic application of theory. However, on individual inspection, all bar one may be more parsimoniously explained by direct anthropogenic changes to the landscape than by the indirect effects of climate change. Indeed, no a priori predictions relating to climate change, such as colonisers being small and/or originating in nearby arid shrublands, were upheld. This suggests that observed climate changes have not yet been sufficient to trigger extensive shifts in the ranges of indigenous birds in this region, or that a priori assumptions are incorrect. Either way, this study highlights the danger of nave attribution of range changes to climate change, even if those range changes accord with the predictions of climate-change models. Nonetheless, studies of artificially enriched faunas, such as that of the Cape Peninsula, and the dynamics of these observed range shifts, may provide insight into processes likely to take place should climate change trigger significant poleward movement by Southern Hemisphere birds.",Avian range changes and climate change: a cautionary tale from the Cape Peninsula,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2335347,"Climate change presents an important threat to community livelihoods and well-being around the world. Biophysical vulnerability to the effects of climate change, such as sea level rise, coastal erosion, changing flora and fauna, and changing precipitation patterns are predicted to affect island nations in particular. Emotional geographies offers a theoretical entry point to understand how changing landscapes, which are often imbued with emotion and personal significance, may result in heightened emotional states and result in different outcomes depending on the severity of these changes and the biophysical vulnerability that produces them. Historically, emotion and gender have been closely linked; we use biophysical vulnerability to climate change, along with emotion and gender, to argue for a differentiated perspective on how men and women in different places may experience different emotional responses to climate change. Using a cross-cultural analysis of qualitative data from four island countries (Fiji, Cyprus, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom; total N = 272), this article explores how different sensitivities to climate change may produce differentiated emotional responses among men versus women across these four sites. Our results indicate that gender does affect the emotional response of respondents in these sites, but that local sensitivity plays an important role in differentiating these emotional responses, and their causes, between the four sites.",Anger and Sadness: Gendered Emotional Responses to Climate Threats in Four Island Nations,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+513209,"Ice in the environment, whether in the form of ice particles in clouds or sea ice and snow at the Earth's surface, has a profound influence on atmospheric composition and climate. The interaction of trace atmospheric gases with snow and sea ice surfaces largely controls atmospheric composition in polar regions. The heterogeneous chemistry of ice particles in clouds also plays critical roles in polar stratospheric ozone depletion and in tropospheric chemistry. A quantitative physical understanding of the interactions of snow and ice with trace gases is critical for predicting the effects of climate change on atmospheric composition, for the interpretation of ice core chemical records, and for modeling atmospheric chemistry. The motivation behind this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters (ERL), and the special session at the Fall 2007 meeting of the American Geophysical Union that generated it, was to enhance communication and interactions among field and laboratory scientists and modelers working in this area. Members of these three groups are each working toward a mutual goal of understanding and quantifying the connections between the chemistry of snow and ice in the environment and atmospheric composition, and communication and collaboration across these traditional disciplinary boundaries pose a challenge for the community. We are pleased to present new work from several current leaders in the field and laboratory communities in this focus issue. Topics include the interaction of organics and mercury with snow and ice surfaces, halogen activation from halide ice, and the emissions of reactive nitrogen oxides from snow. Novel experimental techniques are presented that make progress towards overcoming the experimental challenges of quantifying the chemistry of realistic snow samples and ice chemistry at temperatures relevant to the polar boundary layer. Several of the papers in this issue also touch on one of the significant gaps in our current understanding of the atmospheric chemistry of ice: the role of a quasi-liquid layer (QLL) or quasi-brine layer (QBL) at the ice surface. The studies presented here advance our understanding of the complex interactions of snow and ice with important reactive components in our atmosphere. It has become clear in recent years that the polar regions do not act as an ultimate sink for many compounds - the release of halogens and reactive nitrogen oxides from ice and snow are examples of this. Two notable implications arise from these findings (i) the impact of anthropogenic pollutants in our environment may extend further than we fully appreciate with current global atmospheric chemistry models and (ii) our interpretation of chemical records in ice cores requires that we fundamentally understand and quantify air-snow and air-ice interactions. Additionally, laboratory studies are elucidating the details of heterogeneous reactions that are prevalent on ice and snow surfaces throughout the troposphere, and we are poised to make significant strides in the near future quantifying these effects on regional and global scales. We look forward to continued progress in this field in the coming years, and we will continue to work to connect those conducting modeling, field and laboratory studies. Focus on Connections between Atmospheric Chemistry and Snow and Ice Contents HONO emissions from snow surfaces Harry Beine, Agustín J Colussi, Antonio Amoroso, Giulio Esposito, Mauro Montagnoli and Michael R Hoffmann Heterogeneous ozonation kinetics of phenanthrene at the air-ice interface T F Kahan and D J Donaldson Release of gas-phase halogens from sodium halide substrates: heterogeneous oxidation of frozen solutions and desiccated salts by hydroxyl radicals S J Sjostedt and J P D Abbatt Uptake of acetone, ethanol and benzene to snow and ice: effects of surface area and temperature J P D Abbatt, T Bartels-Rausch, M Ullerstam and T J Ye Interaction of gaseous elemental mercury with snow surfaces: laboratory investigation Thorsten Bartels-Rausch, Thomas Huthwelker, Martin Jöri, Heinz W Gäggeler and Markus Ammann Major solutes, metals, and alkylated aromatic compounds in high-latitude maritime snowpacks near the trans-Alaska pipeline terminal, Valdez, Alaska Jonathan P Bower, Eran Hood and Lisa A Hoferkamp The fate of volatile chemicals during wet growth of a hailstone Ryan Michael and Amy L Stuart. © 2008 IOP Publishing Ltd.",Ice in the environment: Connections to atmospheric chemistry,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1884673,"Global climate change has local implications. Focusing on datasets from the topographically-challenging Karnali river basin in Western Nepal, this research provides an overview of hydro-climatic parameters that have been observed during 1981-2012. The spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation were analyzed in the basin considering the seven available climate stations and 20 precipitation stations distributed in the basin. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's method were used to study the trends in climate data. Results show that the average precipitation in the basin is heterogeneous, and more of the stations trend are decreasing. The precipitation shows decreasing trend by 4.91 mm/year, i.e., around 10% on average. Though the increasing trends were observed in both minimum and maximum temperature, maximum temperature trend is higher than the minimum temperature and the maximum temperature trend during the pre-monsoon season is significantly higher (0.08 degrees C/year). River discharge and precipitation observations were analyzed to understand the rainfall-runoff relationship. The peak discharge (August) is found to be a month late than the peak precipitation (July) over the basin. Although the annual precipitation in most of the stations shows a decreasing trend, there is constant river discharge during the period 1981-2010.",Hydro-Climatic Variability in the Karnali River Basin of Nepal Himalaya,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2149642,"This study addresses the perceptions of indigenous people in Bangladesh in relation to the causes and impacts of climate change and how they use their indigenous knowledge to manage their forest resources and apply a variety of coping strategies in the face of climate change. This study selected two indigenous communities living in Lawachara Punji (Khasia community, 18 households) and in Dolubari/Dulahazra (Tripura community, 60 households). This study used purposive sampling and collected information through a survey questionnaire as well as in-depth interviews. Findings show some differences between the two indigenous communities in terms of their beliefs about the causes and impacts of climate change, as well their perceptions, techniques, and knowledge as indigenous people in terms of managing their forest resources and coping with the effects of climate change. Tripura respondents believe that climate change has had adverse impacts on humans and that human activities are responsible for climate change, while Khasia respondents hold different beliefs in these respects. Khasia respondents emphasize government responsibility, raising public awareness, and the various roles people need to perform to mitigate the effects of climate change. Findings from this kind of study can provide a deeper understanding of people's views of the causes and impacts of climate change and related dimensions, including forest resource management and coping strategies in terms of indigenous beliefs and practices. These findings can contribute to policy making in countries like Bangladesh that are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, contributing to environmental sustainability in developing countries.","Indigenous people's perceptions about climate change, forest resource management, and coping strategies: a comparative study in Bangladesh",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+181699,"Uncertain future climate, recent persistent droughts, and subsequent water conflicts increasingly threaten the sustainability of regional water resources in the United States. Climate change and ongoing water disputes brought about by changes in water availability and timing emphasize the need for decision makers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate losses. Developing a drought management system equipped with advanced visualization settings is critical to lay out drought evolvement at local scales, yet an effort has not been made to evaluate how different spatial discretization can represent local drought as opposed to conventional drought monitoring. Gridded drought indices, including the standardized precipitation index (SPI), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and Hydrologic drought index (HDI) at high-resolution spatial (12 km by 12 km) scales are demonstrated to provide useful insights to evaluate local drought possibly driven by a rapidly changing global environment. A new method for duration factors in PDSI is also discussed to better represent drought conditions over time and space.",Toward Mapping Gridded Drought Indices to Evaluate Local Drought in a Rapidly Changing Global Environment,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3588889,"Allergy and infection have being exerted seriously adverse effect on children's health. On the one hand, asthma and allergy have become the most common chronic diseases in childhood and the leading cause of pediatric hospitalization worldwide. The prevalence of childhood asthma has considerably increased since the 1950s, with some suggestion of plateauing in developed regions but rapidly increasing in low- and middle-income countries over recent years. On the other hand, pneumonia as the most prevalent infectious disease is the leading cause of mortality in children under 5 years old globally. Approximately 99% of the pneumonia death occurs in developing countries. During recent decade, China has witnessed a rapid increase in the prevalence of childhood asthma and allergies and the morbidity of childhood infectious diseases such as pneumonia tend to be very high. Environmental exposure is thought to be the most important factor which is responsible for this rising trend and serious burden of childhood allergic and infectious diseases. Ambient air pollution has been widely suggested to be associated with the incidence and prevalence of allergies and infections, and a distinct need is then to find out the key component of air pollution and the critical exposure window so as to develop more effective measures of prevention and intervention. A large body of evidence mainly from developed countries suggested that traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) plays a key role in the exacerbation and development of allergies and infections. However, differences in the chemical and physical composition of air pollution, both in level and source, between China and developed countries prompts the need for further investigation into the role of outdoor air pollution in the development of childhood allergic and infectious diseases. On the other hand, due to the rapid urbanization progress in China, a huge number of people, especially the new couples and expected parents, migrated into new buildings in urban areas during the past decade. New building materials, decoration materials, and new furniture caused high indoor level chemicals, such as volatile and semi volatile organ compounds (VOCs and SVOCs). Due to lack of central air conditioning and heating systems, mold and dampness in dwellings is very serious in the southern China with subtropical climate. Thus, indoor environmental risk factors are also serious in China, which play important role in the rapid increase in the allergic diseases and high prevalence of infectious diseases in childhood. Although the impact of environmental pollution on children's health has attracted wide attention and extensive research, some key scientific issues such as ""main environmental pollutants, critical exposure windows, and whether the exposure cause diseases"" still remain unclear. This paper summarizes the effects of prenatal (one year before pregnancy, entire pregnancy and three trimesters of pregnancy) and postnatal (first year, past year, and entire postnatal period) exposure to both indoor and outdoor environmental pollution on childhood allergic and infectious diseases, and also analyzed the relative importance of the critical exposure time windows for different diseases. We concluded that most studies mainly from developed countries found a positive association between traffic related air pollution and childhood allergic diseases. However, in China, early life exposure to classical air pollution (such as industrial air pollution) also exerts an adverse effect on childhood asthma and allergies. The recent studies identified relative importance of traffic-related air pollution exposure in different critical time windows (such as different trimester of pregnancy) in the development of different allergic diseases. This paper also concluded that early-life exposure to indoor mould/dampness and renovation significantly increased risk of childhood allergic and infectious diseases. According to the analysis of available literatures, this study proved the hypothesis of ""fetal origins of disease"" in children, and revealed that exposure to indoor and outdoor environmental pollution during pregnancy and early postnatal period played an important role in the onset and development of childhood allergic and infectious diseases, which provides a scientific basis for effective prevention and intervention strategies to reduce childhood allergies and infections. Finally, this study summarized the different influences, and expected the problems and challenges of effective prevention and reduction of childhood allergies and infections. © 2018, Science Press. All right reserved.","Early life exposure to environmental pollution increases childhood asthma, allergy and infection",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+269490,"In this study, an attempt has been made to capture the sensitivity of a mountainous region to elevation-dependent warming and the response of a glacier-laden surface to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosol concentration. Some of the changes Sikkim has undergone due to urban sprawl are as follows: an increase of similar to 0.7 +/- 0.46 A degrees C temperature in the past 40 years at an altitude of 5.5 km; a 2.21 km(2)/year rate of loss of glacierised area in the past 33 years; an increase in absorbed longwave radiation (6 A +/- 2.41 W/m(2)); an increase in heat fluxes (2 A +/- 0.97 W/m(2)); a decrease in albedo during the last 30 years; an increase in the concentrations of carbon dioxide (4.42 %), methane (0.61 %), ozone (0.67 %) and black carbon column optical depth (7.19 %); a decrease in carbon monoxide (2.61 %) and an increase in aerosol optical depth (19.16 %) during the last decade; a decrease in precipitation, water yield, discharge and groundwater; and an increase in evapotranspiration during 1971-2005. Detection of three climate signals (1976, 1997 and 2005) in the entire analysis is the quantification of the fact that the climate of Sikkim is moving away from its inter-annual variability. An increase in temperature (0.23 A degrees C/decade) at higher altitude (similar to 5.5 km), suppression of precipitation, decreasing water availability and rapid loss of glacierised area are the evidences of the fact that air pollution is playing a significant role in bringing about regional climatic changes in Sikkim. In this study, change detection method has been used for the first time for the estimation of change in a glacierised area of the region.",Assessment of regional climatic changes in the Eastern Himalayan region: a study using multi-satellite remote sensing data sets,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+24292,"Climate variability due to the greenhouse effect has important implications on hydrological processes and water resources systems. Indeed, water availability, quality and streamflow are very sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes whose effects have to be fully considered in current water management and planning. International literature proposes several models, attempting to assess accurately the available water resources under stationary and changing climatic conditions at different spatial and temporal scales. In order to assess the potential impacts of climate change on surface and groundwater resources water availability in a Southern area of Italy, a conceptual hydrologic model, the TOPDM, was applied at daily scale to simulate the hydrological processes in the Belice river basin, located in Sicily and which feeds an artificial lake. The analysis of climatic forcings trend provided the parameters needed in order to generate synthetic climate forcing series through the use of the AWE-GEN, an hourly weather generator, able to reproduce the characteristics of hydro-climatic variables and their statistical properties. The hydrological model was used to estimate the basin water balance components and the surface and groundwater availability, at annual and monthly scale, in a no trend scenario, representing the current climate conditions, and in three different groups of scenarios, in which a decrease of precipitation, an increase of temperature, and a combination of these effect were reproduced. The application of TOPDM to the test basin provided some important conclusions about the implications of climate change in the Southern part of Italy. Results showed that runoff and evapotranspiration reflect variations in precipitation and in temperature; in particular the negative trend in precipitation determines a decrease in surface and groundwater resources, and this effect is intensified in the scenarios that include an increase in potential evapotraspiration as well. The consequences of changes on water supply system were also analyzed through a simple balance evaluation of the lake water reservoir, in order to assess the possible impacts on the resource managements. Results indicated an exacerbation of the water resources stresses, in which water scarcity is already an important issue for water resource management. The analysis provides useful information about the quantification of the potential effects of climate change in the area of study, in order to develop new strategies to deal with these changes. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.",Modifications in Water Resources Availability Under Climate Changes: A Case Study in a Sicilian Basin,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+152553,"Key Message We used tree ring analysis to assess the response of Pinus pinea to climate change in South Iberia. Climate-growth relationships changed over time, with greater sensitivity in recent years due to increasing aridity. A common dendroclimatic signal among sites was found, suggesting that climate change is the main responsible for the observed variation in tree growth. Context Understanding the response of Mediterranean forests to climate change is required to assess their vulnerability and to develop measures that may limit the impact of future climate change. Aim We analyzed the sensitivity of several populations of Pinus pinea (Stone pine) in Southern and Central Spain and Portugal to climate and identified some responses to climate change. Methods We constructed tree ring chronologies and studied the dendroclimatic signal over the last century. Results There were similarities in tree ring growth and response to climate among sites. Growth was enhanced after precipitation during the previous autumn and the current spring and was limited by water shortage. In recent decades, aridity increased in the study region and the sensitivity of tree ring growth to water availability increased at all study sites. We also observed an enhanced growth synchrony among chronologies as well as an increase in ring width variability during the last decades. Conclusion The radial growth of P. pinea indicated strong effects of climate change. The climatic signal in tree ring chronologies suggested a plastic growth response to climate of this species, although the enhanced growth synchrony and variability in recent years suggest the presence of conditions that are limiting for growth. This study provides the first assessment of the responses of Iberian populations of P. pinea to changes in climate.",Tree rings reflect growth adjustments and enhanced synchrony among sites in Iberian stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) under climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+220723,"Identifying and understanding why traits make species vulnerable to changing climatic conditions remain central problems in evolutionary and applied ecology. We used spring snow cover duration as a proxy for phenological timing of wetland ecosystems, and examined how snow cover duration during spring and during the entire snow season affected population dynamics of duck species breeding in the western boreal forest of North America, 19732007. We predicted that population level responses would differ among duck species, such that late-nesting species with reduced flexibility in their timing of breeding, i.e. scaup (Aythya spp.) and scoter (Melanitta spp.), would be more strongly affected by changing snow cover conditions relative to species better able to adjust timing of breeding to seasonal phenology, i.e. mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and American wigeon (Anas americana). Population growth rates of scaup and scoter were positively linked to spring snow cover duration; after accounting for effects of density dependence, larger populations resulted after springs with long snow cover duration than after springs with short snow cover duration. In contrast, population growth rates of mallard and wigeon were either negatively or only weakly associated with snow cover duration. Duck population models were then incorporated with snow cover duration derived from climate model simulations under the A2 emission scenario, and these predictions suggested that late-nesting duck species will experience the most severe population declines. Results are consistent with a hypothesis that the gradual climatic warming observed in the western boreal forest of North America has contributed to and may continue to exacerbate population declines of scaup and scoter.",Population vulnerability to climate change linked to timing of breeding in boreal ducks,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+728440,"Mountain areas are sensitive to climate change. Implications of climate change can be seen in less snow, receding glaciers, increasing temperatures, and decreasing precipitation. Climate change is also a severe threat to snow-related winter sports such as skiing, snowboarding, and cross-country skiing. The change in climate will put further pressure on the sensitive environment of high mountains. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to know the impact of climate change on the snow precipitation, water resources, and winter tourism in the two famous tourist resorts of the Kashmir Valley. Our findings show that winters are getting prolonged with little snow falls on account of climate change. The average minimum and maximum temperatures are showing statistically significant increasing trends for winter months. The precipitation is showing decreasing trends in both the regions. A considerable area in these regions remains under the snow and glacier cover throughout the year especially during the winter and spring seasons. However, time series analysis of LandSat MODIS images using Normalized Difference Snow Index shows a decreasing trend in snow cover in both the regions from past few years. Similarly, the stream discharge, comprising predominantly of snow- and glacier-melt, is showing a statistically significant declining trend despite the melting of these glaciers. The predicted futuristic trends of temperature from Predicting Regional Climates for Impact Studies regional climate model are showing an increase which may enhance snow-melting in the near future posing a serious threat to the sustainability of winter tourism in the region. Hence, it becomes essential to monitor the changes in temperature and snow cover depletion in these basins in order to evaluate their effect on the winter tourism and water resources in the region.",Sustainability of winter tourism in a changing climate over Kashmir Himalaya,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+295924,"Regional warming causes changes in local communities due to species extinctions and latitudinal range shifts. We show that the species richness of fish in 3 regional seas in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean has changed over time (1997 to 2008), and we relate this to higher water temperatures and the biogeographic affinity of the species. In the North and Celtic Seas, species richness increased due to increases in the number of warm-favouring Lusitanian species. In the area west of Scotland, species richness decreased because the number of cold-favouring Boreal species decreased. Additional analyses of trends in fishing effort imply that the observed changes in species richness are unlikely to have been induced by fisheries in the North and Celtic Seas, thereby strengthening the idea that climate change affects species richness of marine fish. However, in the area west of Scotland, a potential effect of fisheries in addition to temperature change on the observed change in species richness could not be ruled out.",Regional warming changes fish species richness in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+621896,"To illustrate the hydrological impact of climate and land use change on an unregulated basin, the agriculture- and wetland-dominated Smith Creek Research Basin (SCRB) was examined in detail. Streamflows (1975-1994) show behaviour typical of the Canadian Prairies - generation primarily by snowmelt and cessation in May due to lack of runoff or groundwater contributions. Depressional storage has been drained for decades, reducing the extent of ponds by 58% and increasing drainage channel length 780%. Climate has also changed; increasing temperatures since 1942 have brought on a gradual increase in the rainfall fraction of precipitation (no trends in total precipitation) and an earlier snowmelt by 2weeks. The number of multiple-day rainfall events has increased by half, which may make rainfall-runoff generation mechanisms more efficient. Annual streamflow volume and runoff ratio have increased 14-fold and 12-fold, respectively, since 1975, with dramatically increasing contributions from rainfall and mixed runoff regimes. Snowmelt runoff has declined from 86% in the 1970s to 47% recently while rainfall runoff has increased from 7% to 34% of discharge. Peak discharge has tripled since 1975, with a major shift in 1994. Recent flood volumes in SCRB have been abnormally large, and high flows in June 2012 and flooding in June 2014 were caused solely by rainfall, something never before recorded at the basin. Changes to the observed character of precipitation, runoff generation mechanisms and depressional storage are substantial, but it is unlikely that any single change can explain the dramatic shift in SCRB surface hydrology. Further diagnostic investigation using process hydrology simulations is needed to explain the observed regime changes. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Hydrological regime changes in a Canadian Prairie basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+653918,"1. This study analysed changes occurring in Mediterranean stream fish assemblages over a sequence of dry years followed by a generally wet period (1991-98). Variations in assemblage attributes were quantified at the basin and stream reach scales, and related to variables reflecting the occurrence of unusually dry or wet conditions. 2. Assemblage variability increased along with the resolution of analysis, with little changes in species richness, composition and rank abundances, but significant variation in individual species abundances. Fluctuations in relative abundances were significantly affected by variables reflecting the severity of summer droughts and the occurrence of rainy springs. These patterns were evident at the basin scale, while variability at individual stream reaches tended to be higher and less related to rainfall patterns. 3. At least three response guilds to rainfall variation could be identified: two of the four abundant and widespread species (chub and loach) declined following dry years, whereas the two other core species (nase and eel) declined after rainy spring; one scarce native species (stickleback) increased in dry years. 4. Except at the two most upstream reaches, the assemblages tended to recover quickly to previous configuration after the changes occurring during the sequence of dry years. 5. Temporal variability of local assemblages was concordant among reaches but did not follow any consistent spatial pattern. Instead, spatial patterns in assemblage attributes changed over time in response to environmental variability, with a tendency for a disruption of upstream-downstream gradients following dry years. 6. Results supported the view that present-day droughts cause relatively small and transient changes to Mediterranean stream fish assemblages. However, longer and more severe droughts expected under altered future climates, may result in declines or local extinctions of the most sensitive species and their potential replacement by more resistant species. Changing drought regimes thus need to be duly considered in the development of conservation strategies for Mediterranean stream fish.",Effects of multi-year droughts on fish assemblages of seasonally drying Mediterranean streams,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+641877,"The terrestrial carbon cycle is influenced by environmental variability at scales ranging from diurnal to interannual. Here, we present 5-years of growing season (day 131-275) observations of the carbon isotope ratio of ecosystem respiration (delta C-13(R)) from a semiarid woodland. This ecosystem has a large necromass component resulting from 97% Pinus edulis mortality in 2002, is dominated by drought-tolerant Juniperus monosperma trees, and experiences large variability in the timing and intensity of seasonal and synoptic water availability. Mean growing season delta C-13(R) was remarkably invariant (-23.57 +/- 0.4 parts per thousand), with the exception of particularly enriched delta C-13(R) in 2006 following a winter with anomalously low snowfall. delta C-13(R) was strongly coupled to climate during premonsoon periods (similar to May to June), including fast (<= 2 days) responses to changes in crown-level stomatal conductance (G(c)) and vapor pressure deficit (vpd) following rain pulses. In contrast, delta C-13(R) was relatively decoupled from G(c) and environmental drivers during monsoon and postmonsoon periods (July-August and September, respectively), exhibiting only infrequent couplings of delta C-13(R) to vpd and soil water content (SWC) with longer lags (similar to 8 days) and variable response slopes (both positive and negative). Notably, delta C-13(R) exhibited consistent dynamics after rainfall events, with depleted delta C-13(R) occurring within 1 h, progressive hourly delta C-13(R) enrichment over the remainder of the night, and net delta C-13(R) depletions over the multiple nights postevent in monsoon and postmonsoon periods. Overall this ecosystem demonstrated strong dependence of delta C-13(R) on precipitation, with an apparent dominance by the autotrophic delta C-13 signal in premonsoon periods when deep soil moisture is abundant and surface soil moisture is low, and weaker coupling during monsoonal periods consistent with increasing heterotrophic dominance when deep soil moisture has declined and surface moisture is variable.","The role of interannual, seasonal, and synoptic climate on the carbon isotope ratio of ecosystem respiration at a semiarid woodland",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+701465,"Disturbance plays a key role in driving ecological responses by creating opportunities for new ecological communities to assemble and by directly influencing the outcomes of assembly. Legacy effects (such as seed banks) and environmental filters can both influence community assembly, but their effects are impossible to separate with observational data. Here, we used seeding experiments in sites covering a broad range of postdisturbance conditions to tease apart the effects of seed availability, environmental factors, and disturbance characteristics on early community assembly after fire. We added seed of four common boreal trees to experimental plots in 55 replicate sites in recently burned areas of black spruce forest in northwestern North America. Seed addition treatments increased the probability of occurrence for all species, indicating a widespread potential for seed limitation to affect patterns of recruitment after fire. Small-seeded species (aspen and birch) were most sensitive to environmental factors such as soil moisture and organic layer depth, suggesting a role for niche-based environmental filtering in community assembly. Fire characteristics related to severity and frequency were also important drivers of seedling regeneration, indicating the potential for disturbance to mediate environmental filters and legacy effects on seed availability. Because effects of seed availability are typically impossible to disentangle from environmental constraints on recruitment in observational studies, legacy effects contingent on vegetation history may be misinterpreted as being driven by strong environmental filters. Results from the seeding experiments suggest that vegetation legacies affecting seed availability play a pivotal role in shaping patterns of community assembly after fire in these low-diversity boreal forests.",Disentangling legacy effects from environmental filters of postfire assembly of boreal tree assemblages,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+320247,"Adaptation and mitigation efforts related to global trends in climate and water scarcity must often be implemented at the local, single-catchment scale. A key requirement is understanding the impact of local climate and watershed characteristics coupled with these regional trends. For surface water, determination of multi-parameter runoff elasticities is a promising tool for achieving such understanding, as explored here for two surface-water dependent basins in Texas. The first basin is the water supply for Dallas-Ft. Worth (DFW), and exhibits relatively high precipitation elasticity (proportional change in runoff to change in precipitation) epsilon(P)=2.64, and temperature elasticity epsilon(T)=-0.41. Standard precipitation-temperature elasticity diagrams exhibit unusual concave contours of runoff change, indicating influence of additional parameters, which can be isolated using multi-parameter approaches. The most influential local parameter in DFW is unexpected reduced runoff fraction in cooler wetter years. Those years exhibit increased summer (JJA) precipitation fraction, but predominant cracking soils in DFW minimize JJA runoff, yielding negative epsilon PJJA=-0.68. A comparative basin near Houston shows positive epsilon PJJA=0.14, reflecting the local impact of tropical cyclones and lesser abundance of cracking soils. Both basins exhibit positive elasticity to 1-year previous precipitation (e.g. DFW epsilon(P-1)=1.24), reflecting the influence of soil moisture storage. Only DFW exhibits negative elasticity to 2-year previous precipitation (epsilon(P-2)=-0.65), reflecting multi-year influence of vegetation growth and increased evapotranspiration. Using these elasticities, analysis of historical multi-decadal climate departures for DFW indicates the 80% decrease in runoff during the 1950-1957 drought of record was primarily caused by reduced precipitation. Runoff 56% above-normal during an unprecedented 1986-1998 wet period was primarily caused by increased precipitation. Since 2000, despite precipitation slightly above normal, runoff has decreased 20%, primarily in response to approximate to 1(degrees)C warming. Future precipitation droughts superimposed on this new drier normal are likely to be much more severe than historical experience would indicate. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Applying multi-parameter runoff elasticity to assess water availability in a changing climate: an example from Texas, USA",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1424473,"There is substantial evidence of climate-related shifts to the timing of avian migration. Although spring arrival has generally advanced, variable species responses and geographical biases in data collection make it difficult to generalise patterns. We advance previous studies by using novel multivariate statistical techniques to explore complex relationships between phenological trends, climate indices and species traits. Using 145 datasets for 52 bird species, we assess trends in first arrival date (FAD), last departure date (LDD) and timing of peak abundance at multiple Australian locations. Strong seasonal patterns were found, i.e. spring phenological events were more likely to significantly advance, while significant advances and delays occurred in other seasons. However, across all significant trends, the magnitude of delays exceeded that of advances, particularly for FAD (+22.3 and -9.6 days/decade, respectively). Geographic variations were found, with greater advances in FAD and LDD, in south-eastern Australia than in the north and west. We identified four species clusters that differed with respect to species traits and climate drivers. Species within bird clusters responded in similar ways to local climate variables, particularly the number of raindays and rainfall. The strength of phenological trends was more strongly related to local climate variables than to broad-scale drivers (Southern Oscillation Index), highlighting the importance of precipitation as a driver of movement in Australian birds.",Continental scale analysis of bird migration timing: influences of climate and life history traits-a generalized mixture model clustering and discriminant approach,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+787884,"Global warming is expected to intensify the Earth's hydrological cycle and increase flood and drought risks. Changes over the 21st century under two warming scenarios in different percentiles of the probability distribution of streamflow, and particularly of high and low streamflow extremes (95th and 5th percentiles), are analyzed using an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) fields fed into different global hydrological models (GHMs) provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to understand the changes in streamflow distribution and simultaneous vulnerability to different types of hydrological risk in different regions. In the multi-model mean under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, 37% of global land areas experience an increase in magnitude of extremely high streamflow (with an average increase of 24.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of flooding in those regions. On the other hand, 43% of global land areas show a decrease in the magnitude of extremely low streamflow (average decrease of 51.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of drought in those regions. About 10% of the global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow, reflecting the potentially worsening hazard of both flood and drought; further, these regions tend to be highly populated parts of the globe, currently holding around 30% of the world's population (over 2.1 billion people). In a world more than 4 degrees warmer by the end of the 21st century compared to the pre-industrial era (RCP8.5 scenario), changes in magnitude of streamflow extremes are projected to be about twice as large as in a 2 degrees warmer world (RCP2.6 scenario). Results also show that inter-GHM uncer-tainty in streamflow changes, due to representation of terrestrial hydrology, is greater than the inter-GCM uncertainty due to simulation of climate change. Under both forcing scenarios, there is high model agreement for increases in streamflow of the regions near and above the Arctic Circle, and consequent increases in the freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean, while subtropical arid areas experience a reduction in streamflow.",Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+464211,"In this study, changes in climatological conditions around the Korean Peninsula are estimated quantitatively using various types of high order statistical analyses. The temperature data collected from Incheon station have been analyzed for the assessment of the climate variation. According to our analysis, the climate changes observed over the Korean Peninsula for the last century are similar to the global observational data in many respects. First of all, the warming trend [+1.5 degrees C (100 yr)(-1)] and the overall evolving pattern throughout the century are quite similar to each other. The temperature change in the Korean Peninsula is about two to three times larger than that of the global scale which may partially be ascribed to the influence of urbanization at mid and high latitudes. In this work, a new Winter Monsoon Index (WMI) is suggested based on the European continental scale circulation index (EUI) pattern. Our WMI is defined as the normalized sea level pressure (SLP) difference in the winter period between the centers of the East Sea and west of Lake Baikal in Siberia, the two eastern centers of the EU1 action patterns. A strong similarity is found between the time series of the WMI and surface air temperature at Incheon. The WMI has decreased gradually since the 1920s but has shifted to a rapid increasing trend in the last two decades; it was in fact accompanied by a weakening of the Siberian High and a decreasing of the northerly during winter. Our findings of the close correlations between the surface air temperature at Incheon and the WMI strongly indicate that our newly suggested index is unique and can be used as an efficient tool to predict climate variability in Korea.",The climate variabilities of air temperature around the Korean Peninsula,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+526219,"Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration CO2 and climate change are expected to have a major effect on terrestrial ecosystem hydrological cycles and plant water stress in the coming decades. The present study investigates the potential responses of terrestrial ecosystem hydrological cycles and plant water stress across China to elevated CO2 and climate change in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries using the calibrated and validated Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM) and eight climate change scenarios. The spatiotemporal change patterns of estimated evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, runoff, and plant water stress due to climate change and elevated CO2 are plotted singly and in combination. Positive future trends in ET, soil moisture, and runoff-although differing greatly among regions-are projected. Resultant plant water stress over China's terrestrial ecosystem generally could be eased substantially through the twenty-first century under the climate scenarios driven by emission scenarios that consider economic concerns. By contrast, under the climate scenarios driven by emission scenarios that consider environmental concerns, plant water stress could be eased until 2060, then begin to fluctuate until 2100. The net impact of physiological and structural vegetation responses to elevated CO2 could result in an increasing trend in runoff in southern and northeastern China, and a decreasing trend in runoff in northern and northwestern China in the twentieth century. It is projected to reduce ET by 1.5 x 10(9) to 6.5 x 10(9) m(3) yr(-1) on average, and increase runoff by 1.0 x 10(9) to 5.4 x 10(9) m(3) yr(-1) during 2001-2100 across China's terrestrial ecosystems, although the spatial change pattern could be quite diverse. These findings, in partial contradiction to previous results, present an improved understanding of transient responses of China's terrestrial ecosystem hydrological cycles and plant water stress to climate change and elevated CO2 in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.",Dynamic Response of Terrestrial Hydrological Cycles and Plant Water Stress to Climate Change in China,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+29902,"Altered temperatures affect insects' life history traits, such as development period and fecundity, which ultimately determine population growth rates. Understanding insects' thermal biology is therefore integral to population forecasting and pest management decision-making such as when to utilise crop spraying or biological control. Aphids are important crop pests in temperate regions, causing considerable yield losses. The aphid thermal-biology literature is, however, heavily biased towards the effects of rising mean temperatures, whereas the effects of fluctuating, extreme climatic events (e.g., heat waves and sub-zero cold periods) are largely overlooked. This study assessed the effects of laboratory-simulated heat waves and sub-zero cold periods on the survival, development period, and fecundity of the grain aphid, Sitobion avenae (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Aphididae: Microsiphini), in addition to assessing maternal effects on the birth weight and development period of the offspring of exposed individuals. Exposure to heat stress periods (total of 16h at 30 degrees C) significantly reduced aphid fecundity and increased physiological development period (in day-degrees) resulting in a reduced population growth rate. Cold exposure (total of 1.33h at -15 degrees C) reduced population growth rate due to an elongated development period (in days), but did not affect fecundity or physiological development period (in day-degrees). Both cold and heat stress significantly reduced aphid survival. Maternal experience of heat stress reduced nymphal birth weight although nymphal development period was not affected by either cold or heat stress. The results suggest that including the effects of fluctuating, extreme temperature events on aphid life history in population forecast models is likely to be of great importance to pest management decision-making. The demonstration of maternal effects on birth weight also suggests that cross-generational effects of heat waves on population growth rates could occur.","Effects of extreme, fluctuating temperature events on life history traits of the grain aphid, Sitobion avenae",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+553357,"Resilience of crops to climate change is extremely critical for global food security in coming decades. Decrease in productivity of certain crops as a consequence of changing climate has already been observed. In West Africa, a region extremely vulnerable to climate change, various studies predicted significant reduction in productivity of the major crops because of future warming and shift in precipitation patterns. However, most studies either follow statistical approaches or involve only specific sites. Here, using a process-based crop model at a regional scale, we project the future changes in cereal crop yields as a result of climate change for West African countries in the absence of agricultural intensification for climate adaptation. Without adaptation, the long-term mean of crop yield is projected to decrease in most of the countries (despite some projected increase of precipitation) by the middle of the century, while the inter-annual variability of yield increases significantly. This increase of yield variability is attributed to an increase of inter-annual variability of growing season temperature and/or precipitation in future climate scenarios. The lower mean yield and larger year-to-year variation together make the regional food security extremely volatile. For a comprehensive understanding of climate change impact on crop yield, the distribution of temperature and precipitation over specific growth stages, in addition to growing season averages, should be accounted for. Although uncertainties are rife in calibrating and running a process-based crop model at regional scale, the present study offers insight into potential vulnerabilities of the agricultural system in specific countries or West Africa as a whole because of regional climate change.",Potential impact of climate change on cereal crop yield in West Africa,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1844475,"The present-day global climate changes, very likely caused by anthropogenic activity, may potentially present a serious threat to the whole human civilization in a near future. In order to develop a plan of measures aimed at elimination of these threats and adaptation to these undesirable changes, one should deeply understand the mechanism of past and present (and thus, future) climatic changes of our planet. In this study we compare the present-day data of instrumental observations of the air temperature and snow accumulation rate performed in Central Antarctica (the Vostok station) with the reconstructed paleogeographic data on a variability of these parameters in the past. First of all, the Vostok station is shown to be differing from other East Antarctic stations due to relatively higher rate of warming (1.6 degrees C per 100 years) since 1958. At the same time, according to paleogeographic data, from the late eighteenth century to early twenty-first one the total warming amounted to about 1 degrees C, which is consistent with data from other Antarctic regions. So, we can make a conclusion with high probability that the 30-year period of 1985-2015 was the warmest over the last 2.5 centuries. As for the snow accumulation rate, the paleogeographic data on this contain a certain part of noise that does not allow reliable concluding. However, we found a statistically significant relationship between the rate of snow accumulation and air temperature. This means that with further rise of temperature in Central Antarctica, the rate of solid precipitation accumulation will increase there, thus partially compensating increasing of the sea level.",Variations of snow accumulation rate in Central Antarctica over the last 250 years,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+164181,"The world's coral reefs show rapid decline as a result of environmental change. Coral reef communities and organisms are stressed. potentially mortally, by (1) rising temperature, (2) rising atmospheric/surface ocean CO2 levels, (3) rising human populations, and (4) local aspects of climate change other than temperature. Further increase in all of these stressors is certain-, the future rates and magnitudes of items 1-3 can be estimated with confidence to be substantially greater than changes in the recent past.",Is it time to give up?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2353182,"Within isolated and fragmented populations, species interactions such as predation can cause shifts in community structure and demographics in tidal marsh ecosystems. It is critical to incorporate species interactions into our understanding when evaluating the effects of sea-level rise and storm surges on tidal marshes. In this study, we hypothesize that avian predators will increase their presence and hunting activities during high tides when increased inundation makes their prey more vulnerable. We present evidence that there is a relationship between tidal inundation depth and time of day on the presence, abundance, and behavior of avian predators. We introduce predation pressure as a combined probability of predator presence related to water level. Focal surveys were conducted at four tidal marshes in the San Francisco Bay, California where tidal inundation patterns were monitored across 6months of the winter. Sixteen avian predator species were observed. During high tide at Tolay Slough marsh, ardeids had a 29-fold increase in capture attempts and 4 times greater apparent success rate compared with low tide. Significantly fewer raptors and ardeids were found on low tides than on high tides across all sites. There were more raptors in December and January and more ardeids in January than in other months. Ardeids were more prevalent in the morning, while raptors did not exhibit a significant response to time of day. Modeling results showed that raptors had a unimodal response to water level with a peak at 0.5m over the marsh platform, while ardeids had an increasing response with water level. We found that predation pressure is related to flooding of the marsh surface, and short-term increases in sea levels from high astronomical tides, sea-level rise, and storm surges increase vulnerability of tidal marsh wildlife.",Flooding regimes increase avian predation on wildlife prey in tidal marsh ecosystems,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1558676,"Climate-wildfire relationships have been widely addressed by the scientific community over the last two decades; however, the role of climate in managed fire in the US (i.e. prescribed fire and wildland fire use) has not yet been addressed. We hypothesised that if climate is an important component of managed fire, the fire community would already be aware of this and using climate information in order to mitigate risks associated with managed fires. We conducted 223 surveys with fire managers to ascertain how climate information is utilised in managed-fire decision-making. We found that wildland fire use managers consider climate to be an important aspect of managed fire and use various types of climate information, but prescribed-fire managers do not generally consider climate or use climate information in their planning activities. Survey responses also indicate a lack of agency training on climate information and decision-support tools. This is partly attributed to obstacles in US fire policy that inhibit widespread utilisation of climate information. We suggest these results are indicative of a broader conflict in US wildfire policy, which does not directly address climate despite two decades of scientific research showing climate plays a key role in wildfire regimes.","Beyond wildfire: perspectives of climate, managed fire and policy in the USA",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1291553,"Aim Population dynamics and disturbances have often been simplified or ignored when predicting regional-scale tree species distributions in response to climate change in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models). We determined the relative importance of population dynamics, tree harvest, climate change, and their interaction in affecting tree species distribution changes. Location Major taxa studied Central Hardwood Forest Region of the United States. Tree species. Methods Results We used a forest dynamic model, LANDIS PRO that accounted for population dynamics, tree harvest, and climate change to predict tree species' distributions at 270 m resolution from 2000 to 2300. We quantified the relative importance of these factors using a repeated measures analysis of variance. We further investigated the effects of each factor on changes in species distributions by summarizing extinction and colonization rates. On average, population dynamics was the most important factor affecting tree species distribution changes. Tree harvest was more important than climate change by 2100 whereas climate change was more important than harvest by 2300. By end of the 21(st) century, most tree species expanded their distributions irrespective of any climate or harvest scenario. By 2300, most northern, some southern, and most widely distributed species contracted their distributions while most southern species, some widely distributed species, and few northern species expanded their distributions under warmer climates with tree harvest. Harvest accelerated or ameliorated the contractions and expansions for species that were negatively or positively affected by climate change. Main conclusions Our results suggest that population dynamics and tree harvest can be more important than climate change and thus should be explicitly included when predicting future tree species' distributions. Understanding the underlying mechanisms that drive tree species distributions will enable better predictions of tree species distributions under climate change.",Population dynamics has greater effects than climate change on tree species distribution in a temperate forest region,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1534189,"Until now, few studies have analyzed the effects of temperature on cardiovascular disease (CVD) death at different time points. In this study, we chose 9 different cities in the subtropical and tropical areas of China and analyzed the correlation between temperature at different time points and CVD mortality. We completed this study in two steps. First, we analyzed different time trend decomposition data related to CVD mortality in different populations within the 9 selected cities using empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Second, we created a regression fitting analysis of CVD mortality and temperatures at different time periods. The results showed that the CVD mortality of subtropical and tropical areas in southern Chinese cities represented spatial heterogeneity. The CVD mortality rates in Beihai, Hefei and Nanning showed rising trends, whereas the CVD mortality rates in Haikou, Guilin and Changde appeared to be decreasing. At the daily, seasonal and year time scales, low temperatures were negatively correlated with CVD mortality. Other than at the daily time scale, high temperatures did not significantly influence CVD mortality. This article will help to develop appropriate measures to reduce temperature-related mortality risk in different populations within the subtropical and tropical regions of China.",Spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Southern China using the Empirical Mode Decomposition method,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+638010,"Insecticides are the most common strategy used for the management of mosquitoes. Changes in ambient temperature can alter the toxicity of insecticides to ectothermic organisms. Studies show organophosphate insecticides exhibit a positive correlation between ambient temperature and mortality for many insect species, and carbamate insecticides exhibit a slightly negative correlation between ambient temperature and mortality. Pyrethroid insecticides exhibit a distinctly negative correlation between increasing ambient temperature and mortality for insects. However, this relationship has not been systematically studied for adult mosquitoes. Therefore, we examined the influence of temperature on the susceptibility of adult Aedes aegypti L. (Diptera: Culicidae) when exposed to permethrin. The median lethal concentration, LC50, was estimated for adult Ae. aegypti when exposed to eight concentrations of permethrin (ranging from 0.06-0.58 ng/cm(2)) at each of the following temperatures-16, 23, 26, 30, 32, and 34 degrees C-for 24 h in bottle assays. The estimated LC50 for each temperature was 0.26, 0.36, 0.36, 0.45, 0.27, and 0.31 ng/cm(2), respectively. Results indicated a negative correlation between temperature and mortality from 16 to 30 degrees C, a positive correlation between temperature and mortality from 30 to 32 degrees C, and a negative correlation between temperature and mortality from 32 to 34 degrees C. If mosquito populations are expanding in space and time because of increased ambient temperatures and cannot be managed as effectively with pyrethroids, the spread of mosquito-borne diseases may pose considerable additional risk to public health.",The Influence of Ambient Temperature on the Susceptibility of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) to the Pyrethroid Insecticide Permethrin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2345776,"In recent years, there is an ongoing debate regarding the causes of observed streamflow change across the Midwest. In the Wabash River basin in Indiana, streamflow trends due to changes in land management and climate are potentially masked by the effect of flood control reservoirs constructed in the mid-1960s. To investigate the impact of environmental changes on streamflow, historical daily data were used to estimate daily naturalized streamflow for six sites in the Upper Wabash basin. Annual statistics calculated from daily average streamflow show that reservoir management has resulted in 36% and 38% decreases in annual maxima series (AMS) and Richards-Baker flashiness index (RBI), respectively, and a 21% increase in annual minima (MIN) for the Wabash River at Lafayette between 1971 and 2000. Analysis of the naturalized streamflow time series from 1968 to 2014 indicates that there is an increasing trend in MIN and mean annual flow (MAF) across the watershed, as well as an increasing trend in the RBI and AMS. These trends are consistent with streamflow trends detected in other studies throughout the region.",Streamflow Impacts of Management and Environmental Change in the Upper Wabash River Basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1627337,"Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are losing large amounts of water to the world's oceans. However, estimates of their contribution to sea level rise disagree. We provide a consensus estimate by standardizing existing, and creating new, mass-budget estimates from satellite gravimetry and altimetry and from local glaciological records. In many regions, local measurements are more negative than satellite-based estimates. All regions lost mass during 2003-2009, with the largest losses from Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia, but there was little loss from glaciers in Antarctica. Over this period, the global mass budget was -259 +/- 28 gigatons per year, equivalent to the combined loss from both ice sheets and accounting for 29 +/- 13% of the observed sea level rise.",A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2389251,"Climate change is affecting both the volume and distribution of precipitation, which in turn is expected to affect the growth and reproduction of plant populations. The near ubiquity of local adaptation suggests that adaptive differentiation may have important consequences for how populations are affected by and respond to changing precipitation. Here, we manipulated rainfall in a common garden to examine how differentiation among populations of common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia (Asteraceae) affects responses to water availability expected under climate change. We collected seeds from 26 populations along gradients of historical rainfall and used event-based rainout shelters and watering additions to simulate drier summer conditions and more extreme rainfall events, respectively. Ambrosia artemisiifolia had higher fitness on average under reduced rainfall, suggesting it may spread and become more abundant in areas projected to become hotter and drier during the summer months. We also found strong evidence for phenotypic and fitness clines across both latitude and longitude, and that phenological responses and fitness effects of altered rainfall depended on seed source or historical climate. The effect of rainfall treatment on female fitness was highest in western and mid longitudes, but there was little effect on eastern populations. Across latitude, the effect of rainfall treatment on male fitness was highest in southern populations. These phenology and fitness clines suggest that adaptive differentiation across the species' range has the potential to shape future responses of A. artemisiifolia populations to climate change, particularly altered patterns of rainfall.",Does adaptation to historical climate shape plant responses to future rainfall patterns? A rainfall manipulation experiment with common ragweed,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1627337,"Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are losing large amounts of water to the world's oceans. However, estimates of their contribution to sea level rise disagree. We provide a consensus estimate by standardizing existing, and creating new, mass-budget estimates from satellite gravimetry and altimetry and from local glaciological records. In many regions, local measurements are more negative than satellite-based estimates. All regions lost mass during 2003-2009, with the largest losses from Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia, but there was little loss from glaciers in Antarctica. Over this period, the global mass budget was -259 +/- 28 gigatons per year, equivalent to the combined loss from both ice sheets and accounting for 29 +/- 13% of the observed sea level rise.",A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2089950,"Some regularities that are generally accepted in the theory about the development of sea coasts as applied to the East Arctic coast of Russia do not conform to reality. To find out the reasons for these contradictions, the connection between the coastal processes and the perennially frozen sediment of the underwater coastal slope in the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea was studied. The frozen state of the deposits of the coastal zone exerts a substantial influence on the coastal dynamics and determines several features of the thermoabrasion development. In particular, the subaqual permafrost does not allow the forming of a storm profile with dynamic balance. This fact causes the more effective action of the sea on the coastal cliffs and the more active recession of the frozen coasts as compared with their counterparts outside the cryolitozone.",Permafrost as a factor of the dynamics of the coastal zone of the Russian East Arctic Seas,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+457881,"Evidence is presented that the recent trend patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation over the land masses surrounding the North Atlantic Ocean (North America, Greenland, Europe, and North Africa) have been strongly influenced by the warming pattern of the tropical oceans. The current generation of atmosphere-ocean coupled climate models with prescribed radiative forcing changes generally do not capture these regional trend patterns. On the other hand, even uncoupled atmospheric models without the prescribed radiative forcing changes, but with the observed oceanic warming specified only in the tropics, are more successful in this regard. The tropical oceanic warming pattern is poorly represented in the coupled simulations. Our analysis points to model error rather than unpredictable climate noise as a major cause of this discrepancy with respect to the observed trends. This tropical error needs to be reduced to increase confidence in regional climate change projections around the globe, and to formulate better societal responses to projected changes in high-impact phenomena such as droughts and wet spells.",Critical influence of the pattern of Tropical Ocean warming on remote climate trends,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+660973,"Background: In recent years the developing world, much of which is located in the tropical countries, has seen dramatic growth of its urban population associated with serious degradation of environmental quality. Climate change is producing major impacts including increasing temperatures in these countries that are considered to be most vulnerable to the impact of climate change due to inadequate public health infrastructure and low income status. However, relevant information and data for informed decision making on human health and comfort are lacking in these countries. Objective: The aim of this paper is to study and compare heat stress conditions in an urban (city centre) and rural (airport) environments in Akure, a medium-sized tropical city in south-western Nigeria during the dry harmattan season (January-March) of 2009. Materials and methods: We analysed heat stress conditions in terms of the mean hourly values of the thermohygrometric index (THI), defined by simultaneous in situ air temperature and relative humidity measurements at both sites. Results: The urban heat island (UHI) exists in Akure as the city centre is warmer than the rural airport throughout the day. However, the maximum UHI intensity occurs at night between 1900 and 2200 hours local time. Hot conditions were predominant at both sites, comfortable conditions were only experienced in the morning and evenings of January at both sites, but the rural area has more pleasant morning and evenings and less of very hot and torrid conditions. January has the lowest frequency of hot and torrid conditions at both sites, while March and February has the highest at the city centre and the airport, respectively. The higher frequencies of high temperatures in the city centre suggest a significant heat stress and health risk in this hot humid environment of Akure. Conclusions: More research is needed to achieve better understanding of the seasonal variation of indoor and outdoor heat stress and factors interacting with it in order to improve the health, safety, and productivity of Akure city dwellers.",Comparisons of urban and rural heat stress conditions in a hot-humid tropical city,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+224672,"Scientific papers published locally in many Asian countries are often inaccessible to researchers elsewhere due to language barriers or omission from international journal databases. This paper provides the first comprehensive review of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on plant and animal species in Japan, drawing extensively from both local and international publications. There were a number of long-term data sets on phenological and distributional changes covering more than five decades. Observed phenology records showed two characteristic trends in Japan; greater shifts of plant phenology in autumn relative to spring and delays in insect appearance dates in spring. Distribution records of insect and marine species indicated poleward range expansions of 18-140 km per decade. Future projections on phenology suggested varied responses between species and possible disruptions in ecosystem functions, while those on distributions indicated potential significant range reductions and changes in species assemblages and diversity. Some of these responses are not in line with the global trends while others show changes of greater magnitude than for other regions, which highlights the importance of region-specific climate change impact assessments. The research recommends that, to improve the evaluation of climate change impacts in countries where the common languages are not English, search efforts should be expanded to include locally available data and publications. This can be facilitated by using country-specific journal databases and increasing collaboration with local researchers. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Ecological impacts of climate change in Japan: The importance of integrating local and international publications,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+781818,"Drought is a natural hazard developing slowly and affecting large areas which may have severe consequences on society and economy. Due to the effects of climate change, drought is expected to exacerbate in various regions in future. In this study, the impact of climate change on drought characteristics is assessed, and statistical methods are employed to analyse the significance of projections. This is the first study utilizing 21 recently available downscaled global climate models generated by NASA (NEX-GDDP) to evaluate drought projections over various regions across the United States. Drought is investigated through a multi-model dual-index dual-scenario approach to probabilistically analyse drought attributes while characterizing the uncertainty in future drought projections. Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values at the seasonal scale (3 months) are used to project and analyse meteorological drought conditions from 1950 to 2099 at 0.25 degrees spatial resolution. Two future concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are considered for this analysis. Accounting for the combined effects of precipitation and temperature variations reveals a considerable aggravation in severity and extent of future drought in the western United States and a tendency toward more frequent and intense summer droughts across the Contiguous United States.",Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA-NEX downscaled climate ensemble,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+72186,"The subarctic environment of northernmost Sweden has changed over the past century, particularly elements of climate and cryosphere. This paper presents a unique geo-referenced record of environmental and ecosystem observations from the area since 1913. Abiotic changes have been substantial. Vegetation changes include not only increases in growth and range extension but also counterintuitive decreases, and stability: all three possible responses. Changes in species composition within the major plant communities have ranged between almost no changes to almost a 50 per cent increase in the number of species. Changes in plant species abundance also vary with particularly large increases in trees and shrubs (up to 600%). There has been an increase in abundance of aspen and large changes in other plant communities responding to wetland area increases resulting from permafrost thaw. Populations of herbivores have responded to varying management practices and climate regimes, particularly changing snow conditions. While it is difficult to generalize and scale-up the site-specific changes in ecosystems, this very site-specificity, combined with projections of change, is of immediate relevance to local stakeholders who need to adapt to new opportunities and to respond to challenges. Furthermore, the relatively small area and its unique datasets are a microcosm of the complexity of Arctic landscapes in transition that remains to be documented.",Ecosystem change and stability over multiple decades in the Swedish subarctic: complex processes and multiple drivers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+418393,"Oceanic anthropogenic CO2 uptake will decrease both the pH and the aragonite saturation state (Omega(arag)) of seawater leading to an oceanic acidification. However, the factors controlling future changes in pH and Omega(arag) are independent and will respond differently to oceanic climate change feedbacks such as ocean warming, circulation and biological changes. We examine the sensitivity of these two CO2-related parameters to climate change feedbacks within a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The ocean warming feedback was found to dominate the climate change responses in the surface ocean. Although surface pH is projected to decrease relatively uniformly by about 0.3 by the year 2100, we find pH to be insensitive to climate change feedbacks, whereas Omega(arag) is buffered by similar to 15%. Ocean carbonate chemistry creates a situation whereby the direct pH changes due to ocean warming are almost cancelled by the pH changes associated with dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations changes via a reduction in CO2 solubility from ocean warming. We show that the small climate change feedback on future surface ocean pH is independent to the amount of ocean warming. Our analysis therefore implies that future projections of surface ocean acidification only need to consider future atmospheric CO2 levels, not climate change induced modifications in the ocean.",Climate change feedbacks on future oceanic acidification,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2330033,"Sea ice microbial communities produce large amounts of the sulfur metabolite dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP), a precursor of the climate cooling gas dimethylsulfide. Despite their importance to the polar sulfur cycle, drivers and metabolic pathways of sea ice DMSP are uncertain. Here we report the first measurements of sea ice DMSP sulfur isotopic composition (S-34/S-32 ratio, delta S-34). delta S-34 values in ice cores from the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea reveal considerable variability across seasons and between ice horizons (from +10.6 to +23.6%). We discuss how the most extreme delta S-34 values observed could be related to unique DMSP cycling in the seasonally extreme physiochemical conditions of isolated brine inclusions in winter-spring. Using cell cultures, we show that part of the DMSP delta S-34 variability could be explained by distinct DMSP metabolism in sea ice microalgae. These findings advance our understanding of the sea ice sulfur cycle and metabolic adaptations of microbes in extreme environments.",Variability in sulfur isotope composition suggests unique dimethylsulfoniopropionate cycling and microalgae metabolism in Antarctic sea ice,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1442890,"Temperature and water conditions affect vegetation growth dynamics and associated spectral measures. We examined the response of the growing season maximum enhanced vegetation index (MEVI) to the growing season temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure and relative humidity on the Tibetan Plateau. The responses of the MEVI to climatic factors changed with the vegetation type, which may be attributed to the finding that the background values and climatic factor changes varied with the type of vegetation. The spatially averaged MEVI over the entire plateau exhibited a non-significant decreasing trend. Approximately 5% and 12% of the vegetation area exhibited significant MEVI decreasing and increasing trends, respectively. Both vapor pressure and relative humidity significantly affected the MEVI, whereas the temperature and precipitation did not significantly correlate with the MEVI over the entire plateau. Specifically, the environmental humidity dominated the MEVI variation over the entire plateau.",Relationship between the Growing Season Maximum Enhanced Vegetation Index and Climatic Factors on the Tibetan Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+189186,"Records of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) are examined here using multiple linear regression against reference time series of temperature and precipitation. This method permits 1) an examination of the separate roles of temperature and precipitation in determining the trends in SWE; 2) an estimation of the sensitivity of SWE to warming trends, and its distribution across western North America and as a function of elevation; and 3) inferences about responses of SWE to future warming. These results emphasize the sensitivity to warming of the mountains of northern California and the Cascades of Oregon and Washington. In addition, the contribution of modes of Pacific climate variability is examined and found to be responsible for about 10%-60% of the trends in SWE, depending on the period of record and climate index.",Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2365187,"Triclosan (TCS) is a prevalent anthropogenic contaminant in aquatic environments and its chronic exposure can lead to a series of neurotoxic effects in zebrafish. Both qRT-PCR and W-ISH identified that TCS exposure resulted in significant up-regulation of miR-137, but downregulation of its regulatory genes (bcl11aa, MAPK6 and Runx1). These target genes are mainly associated with neurodevelopment and the MAPK signaling pathway, and showed especially high expression in the brain. After overexpression or knockdown treatments by manual intervention of miR-137, a series of abnormalities were induced, such as ventricular abnormality, bent spine, yolk cyst, closure of swim sac and venous sinus hemorrhage. The most sensitive larval toxicological endpoint from intervened miR-137 expression was impairment of the central nervous system (CNS), ventricular abnormalities and notochord curvature. Microinjection of microRNA mimics or inhibitors of miR-137 both caused zebrafish malformations. The posterior lateral line neuromasts became obscured and decreased in number in intervened miR-137 groups and TCS-exposure groups. Up-regulation of miR-137 led to more severe neurotoxic effects than its down-regulation. Behavioral observations demonstrated that both TCS exposure and miR-137 over-expression led to inhibited hearing or vision sensitivity. HE staining indicated that hearing and vision abnormalities induced by long-term TCS exposure originated from CNS injury, such as reduced glial cells and loose and hollow fiber structures. The findings of this study enhance our mechanistic understanding of neurotoxicity in aquatic animals in response to TCS exposure. These observations provide theoretical guidance for development of early intervention treatments for nervous system diseases.",Neurotoxicological effects induced by up-regulation of miR-137 following triclosan exposure to zebrafish (Danio rerio),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1301710,"The Three-River Source Region (TRSR) of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is regarded as the ""Chinese water tower"". Climate warming and the associated degradation of permafrost might change the water cycle and affect the alpine vegetation growth in the TRSR. However, the quantitative changes in the water budget and their impacts on the vegetation in the TRSR are poorly understood. In this study, the spatial-temporal changes in the hydrological variables and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during 2003-2014 were investigated using multiple satellite data and a remote sensing energy balance model. The results indicated that precipitation showed an increasing trend at a rate of 14.0 mm 10 a(-1), and evapotranspiration (ET) showed a slight decreasing trend. The GRACE-derived total water storage (TWS) change presented a significant increasing trend at a rate of 35.1 mm a(-1). The change in groundwater (GW) which showed an increasing trend at a rate of 18.5 mm a(-1), was estimated by water budget. The time lag of the GRACE-TWS that was influenced by precipitation was more obviously than was the GLDAS-SM(Soil Moisture) change. The vegetation in the TRSR was greening during the study period, and the accumulation of the NDVI increased rapidly after 2008. The effect of total TWS and GLDAS-SM on vegetation was considerably more than that the effects of other factors in this region. It was concluded that the hydrological cycle had obviously changed and that more soil water was transferred into the GW since the aquiclude changed due to climate warming. The increasing area and number of lakes and the thickening of the active layer in the permafrost area led to the greater infiltration of surface water into the groundwater, which resulted in increased water storage. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Detection of hydrological variations and their impacts on vegetation from multiple satellite observations in the Three-River Source Region of the Tibetan Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,1.0
+39333,"Many species show evidence of climate-driven distribution shifts towards higher elevations, but given the tremendous variation among species and regions, we lack an understanding of the community-level consequences of such shifts. Here we test for signatures of climate warming impacts using a repeat survey of semi-permanent vegetation plots in 1970 and 2012 in a montane protected area in southern Quebec, Canada, where daily maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by approximate to 1.6 degrees C and approximate to 2.5 degrees C over the same time period. As predicted, the abundance-weighted mean elevations of species distributions increased significantly over time (9 m/decade). A community temperature index (CTI) was calculated as the abundance-weighted mean of the median temperature across occurrences within each species geographic range in eastern North America. CTI did not vary significantly over time, although the raw magnitude of change (+ 0.2 degrees C) matched the expectation based on the upward shift in distributions of 9 m/decade. Species composition of high elevation sites converged over time toward that observed at low elevation, although compositional changes at low elevation sites were more modest. As a consequence, the results of a multivariate analysis showed a decline in among-plot compositional variability (i.e. beta diversity) over time, thus providing some of the first empirical evidence linking climate warming with biotic homogenization. Finally, plot-scale species richness showed a marked increase of approximate to 25% on average. Overall, elevational distribution shifts, biodiversity change, and biotic homogenization over the past four decades have been consistent with predictions based on climate warming, although the rate of change has been relatively slow, suggesting substantial time lags in biotic responses to climate change.","Elevational shifts, biotic homogenization and time lags in vegetation change during 40 years of climate warming",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+784106,"Although the American pika (Ochotona princeps) continues to receive attention due to documented declines and range retractions, particularly in the Great Basin, thorough range inventories have yet to be completed in many parts of the region. Here we report on recently discovered populations in northwestern Nevada in areas not suspected to support pika activity under current climate regimes. We describe 238 new locations (""sites"") with evidence of past or current occupancy by pikas which cluster into 31 locales, which we interpret as metapopulations or ""demes,"" in 15 distinct mountain ranges or geographic areas. We documented twice as many relict sites (sites with evidence of former pika occupancy) as currently occupied sites, a result that supports previous observations of local range retraction and site losses within the pika's range. In the overall site data, median elevation and water year precipitation were higher and minimum and maximum July temperatures were lower for occupied sites than for relict sites. This pattern was repeated in most, but not all, of the 7 mountain ranges where both occupied and relict sites were found. Occupied sites were more likely to be found in areas with a narrow range of water year precipitation, in cooler climates, and on more mesic-facing aspects, but many of these environmental descriptors also describe relict sites. The apparent extirpation of pikas from the range with the highest elevation and lowest temperatures (Black Rock Range) and the continued persistence in some of the lowest and hottest areas of our survey (Home Camp Range) are particularly noteworthy. Since pikas were known from only a handful of early 20th century records in the area, these surveys greatly expand our understanding of both current and historic pika distributions in the northwestern Great Basin and shed light on patterns of pika persistence and extirpation in a region typified by harsher climates respective to other areas with extant pika populations. Furthermore, our results emphasize the importance of conducting spatially extensive fieldwork to better understand site extirpations and species range retractions.",A SURPRISING DISCOVERY OF AMERICAN PIKA SITES IN THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2089959,"Background. A number of factors have recently caused mass coral mortality events in all of the world's tropical oceans. However, little is known about the timing, rate or spatial variability of the loss of reef-building corals, especially in the Indo-Pacific, which contains 75% of the world's coral reefs. Methodology/Principle Findings. We compiled and analyzed a coral cover database of 6001 quantitative surveys of 2667 Indo-Pacific coral reefs performed between 1968 and 2004. Surveys conducted during 2003 indicated that coral cover averaged only 22.1% (95% CI: 20.7, 23.4) and just 7 of 390 reefs surveyed that year had coral cover > 60%. Estimated yearly coral cover loss based on annually pooled survey data was approximately 1% over the last twenty years and 2% between 1997 and 2003 (or 3,168 km(2) per year). The annual loss based on repeated measures regression analysis of a subset of reefs that were monitored for multiple years from 1997 to 2004 was 0.72% (n = 476 reefs, 95% CI: 0.36, 1.08). Conclusions/Significance. The rate and extent of coral loss in the Indo-Pacific are greater than expected. Coral cover was also surprisingly uniform among subregions and declined decades earlier than previously assumed, even on some of the Pacific's most intensely managed reefs. These results have significant implications for policy makers and resource managers as they search for successful models to reverse coral loss.","Regional Decline of Coral Cover in the Indo-Pacific: Timing, Extent, and Subregional Comparisons",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+211800,"This paper illustrates the results of an analysis performed on historical data of the main meteorological and water quality variables collected during the last fifty years in the basin of Lake Trasimeno, a shallow lake subjected to important water level fluctuations. The results reveal a significant increase of the annual mean of minimum and maximum air temperature, water temperature and solar radiation, and a significant reduction of precipitation and cloud cover, which have mostly occurred during the last twenty years. the decadal rate of warming observed in the last twenty years for air temperature (0.33 degrees C decade(-1)) is consistent with the estimate reported by the IPCC for the land-surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the surface water temperature in Lake Trasimeno shows a more marked increase (0.65 degrees C decade(-1)), comparable to that observed in other lakes of Mediterranean areas. On a monthly scale, the most significant variations are observed in late-spring and early summer months for temperature and solar irradiation, and in winter and spring months for rainfall, which result in an appreciable modification of the seasonal progression. The alterations of the thermal and hydrological balance of the lake have caused a progressive lowering of the water level and the emergence of evaporative conditions. As a consequence of the drought, a progressive accumulation of dissolved slats (3.5 10(6) kg y(-1)) is observed, which is partially explained by meteoric loading. The analysis also shows that an increase in the total alkalinity has occurred during the main drought phases of the last forty years, which has been shown to be consistent with what expected on the basis of the changes in the ionic composition of the waters. With decreasing water levels, a strong reduction in water transparency has also been observed, which does not appear to be connected with a change in the trophic state of the lake, but rather with the increase of suspended solids from bottom sediments, in agreement with the predictions based on resuspesion models in shallow waters. On putting the results into the future scenario of climate change, and accelerating drought and progressive worsening of the water quality can be predicted for Lake Trasimeno in the near future.","Meteorological and water quality changes in Lake Trasimeno (Umbria, Italy) during the last fifty years",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+140573,"The influence of climatic variables (rainfall, temperature and evaporation rates) and lake water levels on the stocks of the sardine fish species Limnothrissa miodon (Boulenger), commonly known as Kapenta in Lake Kariba, was investigated. Secondary data of the climatic variables, water levels and fish catches recorded from 1963 to 2008 were analysed to determine their trends over time as well as the relationships among them. The analyses showed that rainfall is decreasing at a rate of 0.63 mm per year around Lake Kariba, while evaporation rates have increased by 31% at an average rate of 2.77 mm per year since 1963. The temperatures around the Kariba area have been rising since 1964; with the maximum range increasing at a faster rate than the minimum temperatures. Kapenta fish production has decreased significantly (R2=0.85, P≤0.05) since 1974 at an average rate of 24.19 metric tons per year. This pattern of decrease was also observed in the artisanal fish catches that have declined at an average rate of 37.26 metric tons per year between 1974 and 2003. All the climatic factors as well as the water levels could explain variations in the Kapenta fish catches with the water levels exerting the greatest influence (R2=0.84, P 0.05); followed by maximum temperature (R2= 0.72, P≤0.05), evaporation and rainfall. In turn, water levels are largely influenced by climate with temperature and rainfall explaining a significant portion of the variation in the water levels (R2=0.99, and R2=0.93, P≤0.05) in that order. This suggests that both climate (maximum temperature in particular) and nutrients, which are influenced by water levels, are the primary determinants of Lake Kariba's Kapenta production. Concerning are the possibilities that a changing climate in and around the lake may continue to adversely affect water levels, the stratification cycle, nutrient fluxes and the Kapenta fish production in the lake. © 2011 Taylor &amp; Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.","The implications of a changing climate on the kapenta fish stocks of lake kariba, zimbabwe",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2365166,"AimsGrasslands are among the largest ecosystems in the world and store up to 30% of the global reserves of carbon. Decomposition processes have a crucial role in maintaining carbon balance, but few studies have investigated the heterogeneity of this process at small scale, especially in alpine ecosystems. We aimed at investigating the interactions between decomposition and environmental heterogeneity at microscale (i.e. elevation gradient <1m) in a subalpine grassland on the western Italian Alps characterised by the presence of parallel hummock and hollow areas.MethodsIn the study area we monitored microenvironmental drivers (soil temperature and soil water content), plant distribution and decomposition. The latter was studied through a litter bags approach followed by elemental analysis, C-13 NMR and FT-IR spectroscopies.ResultsMicrotopography exerted a direct and indirect control over litter decomposition by affecting plant species distribution and microclimatic conditions. The different elemental and biochemical properties of plants, interacting with microtopography, led to a higher decomposition rate of forb than grass litter, and in hollow than in hummock areas. The observed differences were both quanti- and qualitative.ConclusionsDecomposition processes bridge the gap between plant community structure and ecosystem functioning, determining a feedback mechanism that maintains ecosystem heterogeneity at the microscale.",Decomposition processes interacting with microtopography maintain ecosystem heterogeneity in a subalpine grassland,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+110239,"Observations as well as most climate model simulations are generally in accord with the hypothesis that the hydrologic cycle should intensify and become highly volatile with the greenhouse-gas-induced climate change, although uncertainties of these projections as well as the spatial and seasonal variability of the changes are much larger than for temperature extremes. In this study, we examine scenarios of changes in extreme precipitation events in 24 future climate runs of ten regional climate models, focusing on a specific area of the Czech Republic (central Europe) where complex orography and an interaction of other factors governing the occurrence of heavy precipitation events result in patterns that cannot be captured by global models. The peaks-over-threshold analysis with increasing threshold censoring is applied to estimate multi-year return levels of daily rainfall amounts. Uncertainties in scenarios of changes for the late 21st century related to the inter-model and within-ensemble variability and the use of the SRES-A2 and SRES-B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios are evaluated. The results show that heavy precipitation events are likely to increase in severity in winter and (with less agreement among models) also in summer. The inter-model and intra-model variability and related uncertainties in the pattern and magnitude of the change is large, but the scenarios tend to agree with precipitation trends recently observed in the area, which may strengthen their credibility. In most scenario runs, the projected change in extreme precipitation in summer is of the opposite sign than a change in mean seasonal totals, the latter pointing towards generally drier conditions in summer. A combination of enhanced heavy precipitation amounts and reduced water infiltration capabilities of a dry soil may severely increase peak river discharges and flood-related risks in this region.",Climate-change effects on extreme precipitation in central Europe: uncertainties of scenarios based on regional climate models,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+877539,"Urban trees provide manyfold ecosystem services among which regulating effects are of particular importance for urban planning challenges under climate change. The paper explores the potential of urban tree cadastres to provide researchers and practitioners with relevant data for modeling air pollution removal, carbon sequestration and storage and runoff reduction with the i-Tree Eco application. In addition, the surface temperature reduction was assessed with an innovative approach that uses i-Tree modeling results on leaf area index. Methodological results show that most data needed for direct use in i-Tree are available in tree cadastres. Vitality and height of crown base are available by applying slight adaptations and simple calculations before utilization in the model. Geostatistical methods were applied to assess crown light exposure based on crown radius and high-resolution digital surface model. Modeling results are presented for the publicly owned and managed urban tree stock in the German city of Duisburg in the Rhein-Ruhr region, the country's largest urban-industrial agglomeration. Results show that the regulating ecosystem services of the public tree stock represented in the cadastre is modest when compared to overall city levels of demand for carbon sequestration and storage, runoff reduction and air pollution removal. However, public trees annually remove 16 per cent of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) in Duisburg and provide surface temperature reduction for an area of 29 per cent of their coverage. We discuss outlook and limitations of the approach in the light of practicability of its application for urban planning and urban tree management. © 2016, Deutsche Akademie für Landeskunde e. V., Leipzig.",Modeling ecosystem services of trees based on urban tree cadastres,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+651473,"Anthropogenic carbon dioxide has been accumulating in the oceans, lowering both the concentration of carbonate ions and the pH (ref. 1), resulting in the acidification of sea water. Previous laboratory experiments have shown that decreased carbonate ion concentrations cause many marine calcareous organisms to show reduced calcification rates(2-5). If these results are widely applicable to ocean settings, ocean acidification could lead to ecosystem shifts. Planktonic foraminifera are single-celled calcite-secreting organisms that represent between 25 and 50% of the total open-ocean marine carbonate flux(6) and influence the transport of organic carbon to the ocean interior(7). Here we compare the shell weights of the modern foraminifer Globigerina bulloides collected from sediment traps in the Southern Ocean with the weights of shells preserved in the underlying Holocene-aged sediments. We find that modern shell weights are 30-35% lower than those from the sediments, consistent with reduced calcification today induced by ocean acidification. We also find a link between higher atmospheric carbon dioxide and low shell weights in a 50,000-year-long record obtained from a Southern Ocean marine sediment core. It is unclear whether reduced calcification will affect the survival of this and other species, but a decline in the abundance of foraminifera caused by acidification could affect both marine ecosystems and the oceanic uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide.",Reduced calcification in modern Southern Ocean planktonic foraminifera,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+433945,"The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates only 20% of the land used to grow food is irrigated but it accounts for 40% of the world food supply. Climate change, population growth, and loss of prime agricultural land to development will necessitate judicious use of irrigation water to grow adequate food crops notwithstanding uncertain precipitation levels. The study reported here was conducted at University of Maryland Eastern Shore to determine the influence of deficit irrigation on water use efficiency of corn crop in the 2015 growing season under field conditions using a drip irrigation scheme. Deficit irrigation is being widely investigated as a valuable and sustainable production strategy. It is generally hypothesized that yield loss is less pronounced if irrigation water is available during the reproductive stage of the crop. For this study, the growing season was divided in three equal portions corresponding to early, middle, and late stages of crop growth. Three irrigation treatments were chosen along with a non-irrigated control area. These treatments were based on plant available water in the soil which takes into account the permanent wilting point and field capacity. These treatments were as follows; Treatment 1 (70-70-70), treatment 2 (0-50-50), treatment 3 (0-30-15), and the non-irrigated control (rain-fed). 70 corresponds to maintaining 70% plant available water. It is to be noted two of the treatments have '0' for the early stage indicating that no irrigation was scheduled. During the growing season weekly measurements were taken using a handheld IRT sensor, soil moisture sensor, as well as a SPAD meter. Thermal imagery was also captured using an unmanned aerial system (UAS). A selected portion of the experimental area was hand harvested and the rest with a combine harvester equipped with a yield monitor. The results of this preliminary field study indicate deficit irrigation does make judicious use of irrigation water. While UAS based thermal image analyses and correlation studies with soil moisture and IRT data holds promise, further investigations will be necessary for conclusive results.",Yield response to deficit irrigation strategies based on plant available water for growing field corn,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+203009,"The aim of this paper is to provide the community with a comprehensive overview of the studies of glaciers in the tropical Andes conducted in recent decades leading to the current status of the glaciers in the context of climate change. In terms of changes in surface area and length, we show that the glacier retreat in the tropical Andes over the last three decades is unprecedented since the maximum extension of the Little Ice Age (LIA, mid-17th-early 18th century). In terms of changes in mass balance, although there have been some sporadic gains on several glaciers, we show that the trend has been quite negative over the past 50 yr, with a mean mass balance deficit for glaciers in the tropical Andes that is slightly more negative than the one computed on a global scale. A break point in the trend appeared in the late 1970s with mean annual mass balance per year decreasing from -0.2mw. e. in the period 1964-1975 to -0.76mw. e. in the period 1976-2010. In addition, even if glaciers are currently retreating everywhere in the tropical Andes, it should be noted that this is much more pronounced on small glaciers at low altitudes that do not have a permanent accumulation zone, and which could disappear in the coming years/decades. Monthly mass balance measurements performed in Bolivia, Ecuador and Colombia show that variability of the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean is the main factor governing variability of the mass balance at the decadal timescale. Precipitation did not display a significant trend in the tropical Andes in the 20th century, and consequently cannot explain the glacier recession. On the other hand, temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.10 degrees C decade(-1) in the last 70 yr. The higher frequency of El Nino events and changes in its spatial and temporal occurrence since the late 1970s together with a warming troposphere over the tropical Andes may thus explain much of the recent dramatic shrinkage of glaciers in this part of the world.",Current state of glaciers in the tropical Andes: a multi-century perspective on glacier evolution and climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+70508,"Two of the major uncertainties in forecasting future terrestrial sources and SinkS Of CO2 are the CO2-enhanced growth response of forests and soil warming effects on net CO2 efflux from forests. Carbon dioxide enrichment of tree seedlings over time periods less than 1 yr has generally resulted in enhanced rates of photosynthesis, decreased respiration, and increased growth, with minor increases in leaf area and small changes in C allocation. Exposure of woody species to elevated CO2 over several years has shown that high rates of photosynthesis may be sustained, but net C accumulation may not necessarily increase if CO2 release from soil respiration increases. The impact of the 25% rise in atmospheric CO2 with industrialization has been examined in tree ring chronologies from a range of species and locations. In contrast to the seedling tree results, there is no convincing evidence for CO2-enhanced stem growth of mature trees during the last several decades. However, if mature trees show a preferential root growth response to CO2 enrichment, the gain in root mass for an oak-hickory forest in eastern Tennessee is estimated to be only 9% over the last 40 years. Root data bases are inadequate for detecting such an effect. A very small shift in ecosystem nutrients from soil to vegetation could support CO2-enhanced growth. Climate warming and the accompanying increase in mean soil temperature could have a greater effect than CO2 enrichment on terrestrial sources and sinks Of CO2. Soil respiration and N mineralization have been shown to increase with soil temperature. If plant growth increases with increased N availability, and more C is fixed in growth than is released by soil respiration, then a negative feedback on climate warming will occur. If warming results in a net increase in CO2 efflux from forests, then a positive feedback will follow. A 2 to 4-degrees-C increase in soil temperature could increase CO2 efflux from soil by 15 to 32% in eastern deciduous forests. Quantifying C budget responses of forests to future global change scenarios will be speculative until mature tree responses to CO2 enrichment and the effects of temperature on terrestrial sources and sinks of CO2 can be determined.",FOREST RESPONSES TO CO2 ENRICHMENT AND CLIMATE WARMING,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+330202,"A snowpack model sensitivity study, observed changes of snow cover in the NOAA satellite dataset, and snow cover simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset are used to provide new insights into the climate response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover. Under conditions of warming and increasing precipitation that characterizes both observed and projected climate change over much of the NH land area with seasonal snow cover, the sensitivity analysis indicated snow cover duration (SCD) was the snow cover variable exhibiting the strongest climate sensitivity, with sensitivity varying with climate regime and elevation. The highest snow cover-climate sensitivity was found in maritime climates with extensive winter snowfall-for example, the coastal mountains of western North America (NA). Analysis of trends in snow cover duration during the 1966-2007 period of NOAA data showed the largest decreases were concentrated in a zone where seasonal mean air temperatures were in the range of -5 degrees to +5 degrees C that extended around the midlatitudinal coastal margins of the continents. These findings were echoed by the climate models that showed earlier and more widespread decreases in SCD than annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax), with the zone of earliest significant decrease located over the maritime margins of NA and western Europe. The lowest SCD-climate sensitivity was observed in continental interior climates with relatively cold and dry winters, where precipitation plays a greater role in snow cover variability. The sensitivity analysis suggested a potentially complex elevation response of SCD and SWEmax to increasing temperature and precipitation in mountain regions as a result of nonlinear interactions between the duration of the snow season and snow accumulation rates.",The Response of Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover to a Changing Climate,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2332010,"While total phosphorus (TP) is a critical determinant of freshwater ecosystem productivity, multiple stressors can induce shifts in energy pathways, with profound implications for ecosystem and fishery restoration. The Bay of Quinte (Lake Ontario, Canada) is a Great Lakes nearshore ecosystem that has been historically subjected to a variety of environmental perturbations: cultural eutrophication, low dissolved oxygen, reduced fisheries, climatic extremes, phosphorus (P) abatement, and aquatic invasive species. We used the Bay of Quinte to study how trophic state alterations affect fish assemblages in Great Lakes nearshore environments by examining the response of fish biomass to TP concentration variability in the presence of multiple stressors. Our analysis is based on a 42-year (1972-2013) dataset from the Bay of Quinte for water quality through the food web to fishes. We employed a series of statistical tools that can offer insights into the structural changes induced by the events examined. We first used dynamic linear modelling to detect temporal trends in fish biomass, while accounting for year-to-year TP variability over three spatial segments of the bay. We then developed piecewise regression models to assess the extent to which specific ecological events induced distinct shifts in the fish assemblage. Multiple regression modelling was used to quantify the relative importance of TP, zooplankton, and surface water temperature on fish biomass. Based on gillnets, there were consistent fish biomass changes across the bay with increased biomass before P control (1972-1977), declines after P control followed by the establishment of a steady state or modest increase (1978-1994), and a declining trajectory during the recent period (1995-2013). Even when accounting for the role of water temperature and zooplankton, TP still had a significant effect on fish biomass. However, the strength and nature of the relationship varied among fish groups, and overall, the effect of TP on fish biomass has weakened in recent years. Our models show that fish biomass in the Bay of Quinte is shaped by the year-to-year TP variability. However, the relationship between P and fish abundance has been modulated by various ecological events with the consequence that the Bay of Quinte fish assemblage has changed and the food web now produces less fish biomass per unit of TP. A projected reduction of mean ambient TP levels from 30 to 25g/L, is expected to induce a 24% decline in total fish biomass, and further shift the fish assemblage with the biomass of planktivores and walleye declining by >60% and 30%, respectively. Recreational fishing provides important economic benefits in the Bay of Quinte, through tourism and other local business operations. Recognising the economic importance of fishing, our analysis provides critical insights regarding the on-going management efforts to reduce external nutrient loadings (point and non-point sources, urban storm water) and further lower ambient TP levels and primary productivity. The potential implications of already low nutrient concentrations for fish productivity represent a major challenge in effectively balancing water quality with fisheries management in the area.",Nutrient management and structural shifts in fish assemblages: Lessons learned from an Area of Concern in Lake Ontario,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+601022,"The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic and environmental change, most notably in the spatial extent and thickness of the sea ice. Inuit communities in the Canadian Arctic are directly affected by these changes, with dramatic change in sea ice conditions documented in recent years. We use a case study from the Inuit community of lgloolik to examine the processes and conditions shaping human vulnerability to sea ice change. In 2006, the ocean froze 3 to 4 wk later than normal, with little remnant ice during the summer. lgloolik residents described this state of sea ice as anomalous, and Inuit observations were consistent with instrumental sea-ice data. We examined how community members experienced and responded to the anomalous ice conditions of 2006, using our analysis of this perceptual/behavioral data as a lens for exploring vulnerability and its determinants. Inuit observations shed light on the implications of such ice conditions for human use of this arctic environment, including reduced ability to procure traditional food. Effects on the community were exacerbated by other climate-related conditions and non-climatic stresses, including increasing fuel prices and longer-term socio-cultural trends. The case study also indicates significant. adaptive capacity: anomalous ice years are increasingly becoming the norm and there is evidence that social learning and responsive local institutions are reducing the physical risks of using the ice in a changing climate. Climatic extremes documented in 2006 are projected to be the new mid-century norm as a result of anthropogenic climate change. The case study therefore offers a baseline for examining potential future vulnerabilities.","Sea ice, climate change, and community vulnerability in northern Foxe Basin, Canada",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+143422,"The CERES-Rice v3. crop simulation model, calibrated and validated for its suitability to simulate rice production in the tropical humid climate Kerala State of India, is used for analysing the effect of climate change on rice productivity in the state. The plausible climate change scenario for the Indian subcontinent as expected by the middle of the next century, taking into account the projected emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model experiment performed at Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Germany, is adopted for the study. The adopted scenario represented an increase in monsoon seasonal mean surface temperature of the order of about 1.5 degrees C, and an increase in rainfall of the order of 2 mm per day, over the state of Kerala in the decade 2040-2049 with respect to the 1980s. The IPCC Business-as-usual scenario projection of plant usable concentration of CO(2) about 460 PPM by the middle of the next century are also used in the crop model simulation. On an average over the state with the climate change scenario studied, the rice maturity period is projected to shorten by 8% and yield increase by 12%. When temperature elevations only are taken into consideration, the crop simulations show a decrease of 8% in crop maturity period and 6% in yield. This shows that the increase in yield due to fertilisation effect of elevated CO(2) and increased rainfall over the state as projected in the climate change scenario nearly makes up for the negative impact on rice yield due to temperature rise. The sensitivity experiments of the rice model to CO(2) concentration changes indicated that over the state, an increase in CO(2) concentration leads to yield increase due to its fertilisation effect and also enhance the water use efficiency of the paddy. The temperature sensitivity experiments have shown that for a positive change in temperature up to 5 degrees C, there is a continuous decline in the yield. For every one degree increment the decline in yield is about 6%. Also, in another experiment it is observed that the physiological effect of ambient CO(2) at 425 ppm concentration compensated for the yield losses due to increase in temperature up to 2 degrees C. Rainfall sensitivity experiments have shown that increase in rice yield due to increase in rainfall above the observed values is near exponential. But decrease in rainfall results in yield loss at a constant rate of about 8% per 2 mm/day, up to about 16 mm/day.","Effects of climate change on rice production in the tropical humid climate of Kerala, India",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2490026,"The effect modification of meteorological factors on the association between ambient Sulphur dioxide (SO2) and mortality is critical for designing intervention policy. Existing studies did not result in consistent conclusions on the effect modification, and Years of life lost (YLLs) was rarely used as a health impact indicator to examine the modifying effect. This study aims to estimate the mean air temperature and relative humidity modification effects on the impact of SO2 on daily mortality and YLLs in Chengdu, China. Mortality, YLLs, air pollution and meteorological data were collected for 2011-2014. Three analytical approaches based on generalized additive models (GAMS,) were used, including bivariate response surface model, product term model, and stratification model. We found that the effects of SO2 on mortality and YLLs depended on temperature at various lags, but did not depend on relative humidity. SO2 exhibited larger adverse effects on mortality in high temperature level (22.8-29.4 degrees C) days than in low temperature level (03-93 degrees C) days, with a 10 mu g/m(3) increment in SO2, non accidental death increased by 0.8% (0.001, 0.015)at low temperature level, but increased by 1.4% (0.005, 0.024) at high temperature level. On the contrary, SO2 showed greater adverse effects on YLLs in low temperature days than in high temperature days, with a 10 mu g/m(3) increment in SO2, non -accidental YLL increased by 40.580 (31.478, 49.682) at high temperature level, but increased by -2.703 (-14.668, 9.261) at low temperature level. We concluded that the effect of SO2 on mortality and YLLs may depend on temperature in Chengdu, China. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interaction between SO2 and temperature on health outcomes in future research. Also, policy makers should enhance the emission control of SO2 in extreme temperature days in Chengdu. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","The effects of Sulphur dioxide on acute mortality and years of life lost are modified by temperature in Chengdu, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+131802,"Earthworms are a major component of soil fauna communities. They influence soil chemical, biological, and physical processes and vice versa, their abundance and diversity are influenced by natural characteristics or land management practices. There is need to establish their characteristics and relations. In this study earthworm density (ED), body biomass (EB), and diversity in relation to land use (arable landAL, permanent grasslandsPG), management, and selected abiotic (soil chemical, physical, climate related) and biotic (arthropod density and biomass, ground beetle density, carabid density) indicators were analysed at seven different study sites in Slovakia. On average, the density of earthworms was nearly twice as high in PG compared to AL. Among five soil types used as arable land, Fluvisols created the most suitable conditions for earthworm abundance and biomass. We recorded a significant correlation between ED, EB and soil moisture in arable land. In permanent grasslands, the main climate related factor was soil temperature. Relationships between earthworms and some chemical properties (pH, available nutrients) were observed only in arable land. Our findings indicate trophic interaction between earthworms and carabids in organically managed arable land. Comprehensive assessment of observed relationships can help in earthworm management to achieve sustainable agricultural systems.",Assessment of Relationships between Earthworms and Soil Abiotic and Biotic Factors as a Tool in Sustainable Agricultural,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+306832,"Arctic wildlife is often presented as being highly at risk in the face of current climate warming. We use the long-term (up to 24 years) monitoring records available on Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic to examine temporal trends in population attributes of several terrestrial vertebrates and in primary production. Despite a warming trend (e. g. cumulative annual thawing degree-days increased by 37% and snow-melt date advanced by 4-7 days over a 23-year period), we found little evidence for changes in the phenology, abundance or productivity of several vertebrate species (snow goose, foxes, lemmings, avian predators and one passerine). Only primary production showed a response to warming (annual above-ground biomass of wetland graminoids increased by 123% during this period). We nonetheless found evidence for potential mismatches between herbivores and their food plants in response to warming as snow geese adjusted their laying date by only 3.8 days on average for a change in snow-melt of 10 days, half of the corresponding adjustment shown by the timing of plant growth (7.1 days). We discuss several reasons (duration of time series, large annual variability, amplitude of observed climate change, nonlinear dynamic or constraints imposed by various rate of warming with latitude in migrants) to explain the lack of response by herbivores and predators to climate warming at our study site. We also show how length and intensity of monitoring could affect our ability to detect temporal trends and provide recommendations for future monitoring.",Long-term monitoring at multiple trophic levels suggests heterogeneity in responses to climate change in the Canadian Arctic tundra,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3313683,"The ecosystem of Lake Bolshoye Goluboe had undergone a strong anthropogenic impact in 2013 as a result of the implementation of the dam reconstruction project. Studies in 2014 have shown that the implementation of the project for the reconstruction of the Bolshoye Goluboe dam has negatively affected on the species richness of macrophytes. The total species composition of the lake and species richness of the water core decreased twofold, Hippuris vulgaris L., Zannichellia palustris L, Ceratophyllum demersum L., and the species listed in the Red Book of the Republic of Tatarstan - Batrachium circinatum (Sibth.) Spach disappeared from the species composition. The area occupied by macrophyte communities has decreased by 55%.",Influence of unreasoned economic activity on the condition of macrophytes of the Bol'shoye Goluboye Lake,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3936007,"The prospects of the Gulf of Mexico region being hit by hurricanes in 2006 has been predicted by the National Hurricane Center in Miami in the US. The center takes information from various sources including the UK Met Office and uses various tools to process the information to provide the best possible hurricane forecast product. The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration at the Colorado State University and the Tropical Storm Risk Agency based in University College, London also use similar scientific methodologies to forecast the hurricanes. The cycle of tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf of Mexico region is regulated over a very long period of time that may extend upto ten years. Another prediction for above average activity is possible as the area is passing through more active phase in the last ten years. The quality of the forecasts have improved over the years with fewer forecast errors.",Predicting the unpredictable,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1895132,"Along with greenhouse gases and temperature, sea level has also increased globally over the last century. In the Chesapeake Bay, where there is postglacial fore-bulge collapse, the rate has increased from 0.5 mm per year, from 1000 to 1850 AD, to more than 3.2 mm per year during the 20th century. Moreover, the decadal rate in the 1990s was very high, more than 1.3 cm per year. This unprecedented rate triggered marsh losses in the Chesapeake and Delaware bays. Evidence from Thematic Mapper satellite imagery suggests that more than half of the tidal marsh area of the Chesapeake Bay now shows signs of degradation. As marshes erode, the resulting open water is marginal habitat for most biota. Among the problems for fish are the periodic hypoxia events in late spring. Contrary to expectations, landward migration of marshes is inadequate to replace marshes lost because sea level is rising faster than the plants can colonize new substrates and create new peat. Although they are complex and highly dependent on shoreline sediment type, sea grasses usually do not replace lost marshes at the seaward edge. It is hypothesized that excess wave action, turbidity, and deposition of fine-grain all interact to make the shallows less hospitable for luxuriant sea grass development. In conclusion, massive marsh erosion spurred by rising sea level will have large impacts in a variety of coastal environments that once supported significant fisheries.",Impacts of sea level rise on tidal wetlands and shallow water habitats: A case study from Chesapeake Bay,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2089936,"Aims (1) to compare two series of precipitation data from different periods (19301950 and 19502000) in three sectors of the southern dry Chaco in the arid and semi-arid sub-regions; (2) construct maps showing the distribution of land-cover units for 1979, 1999, 2004 and 2010 for the same three sectors; and (3) assess the changes in land-cover units occurred between 1979 and 2010 in the three sectors. Location Southern extreme of the dry Chaco in NE and NW Cordoba Province, central Argentina. Methods We compared annual and growth period (NovemberMarch) precipitation among the three sectors and between two series of data corresponding to different periods (19301950 and 19502000) using repeated measures ANOVA, with the station as the subject variable, period as the within-factor and sector as the between factor. Using three Landsat MSS (1979) and nine Landsat TM (1999, 2004 and 2010) images we mapped the distribution of eight land-cover units for the whole study area. For each sector (NE, NW and W), we performed a change detection analysis between 1979 and 2010. Results The classification of Landsat MSS and TM images resulted in reliable land-cover maps (overall accuracy 80%). Our results showed that vegetation cover in the area is highly disturbed and that the present status of vegetation cover differs among the three sectors. In the more humid sector, the land-cover changes have been dominated by replacement of closed forests by crops, while in the driest portion of the study area forest loss was not related to agriculture. Additionally, we found that significant increases in precipitation have occurred in all three sectors, but the increase was highest in the humid sector. Conclusions The differences observed among the three sectors suggest that precipitation may have effectively played a dominant role in the process of forest conversion to agriculture.",Deforestation and precipitation patterns in the arid Chaco forests of central Argentina,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1298777,"Objectives: The aim of the article is to evaluate the temporal change in the effect of heat on mortality in Italy in the last 12 years after the introduction of the national heat plan. Study design: Time series analysis. Methods: Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the association between maximum apparent temperature and mortality in 23 Italian cities included in the national heat plan in four study periods (before the introduction of the heat plan and three periods after the plan was in place between 2005 and 2016). The effect (relative risks) and impact (attributable fraction [AF] and number of heat-related deaths) were estimated for mild summer temperatures (20th and 75th percentile maximum apparent temperature [Tappmax]) and extreme summer temperatures (75th and 99th percentile Tappmax) in each study period. A survey of the heat preventive measures adopted over time in the cities included in the Italian heat plan was carried out to better describe adaptation measures and response. Results: Although heat still has an impact on mortality in Italian cities, a reduction in heat-related mortality is observed progressively over time. In terms of the impact, the heat AF related to extreme temperatures declined from 6.3% in the period 1999-2002 to 4.1% in 2013-2016. Considering the entire temperature range (20th vs 99th percentile), the total number of heat-related deaths spared over the entire study period was 1900. Conclusions: Considering future climate change and the health burden associated to heat waves, it is important to promote adaptation measures by showing the potential effectiveness of heat prevention plans. (c) 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Temporal variation in the effect of heat and the role of the Italian heat prevention plan,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+406810,"Changes in sea ice cover have important consequences for both Earth's energy budget and atmospheric dynamics. Sea ice acts as a positive feedback in the climate system, amplifying effects of radiative forcing while also affecting the meridional and interhemispheric temperature gradients that can impact mid-and low latitude atmospheric circulation. In this study, we partition and evaluate the effects of changing sea ice cover on global warming using a set of simulations with active and suppressed sea ice response. Two aspects of CO2-induced sea ice changes are investigated: (1) the effect of changing sea ice cover on global and local temperature changes; and (2) the impact of sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation and extreme weather events. We find that in the absence of sea ice decline, global temperature response decreases by 21-37%, depending on the sea ice treatment and the CO2 forcing applied. Weakened global warming in the absence of changes in sea ice cover is not only due to a decreased high latitude warming but is also a consequence of a weaker tropical warming. In the northern midlatitudes, sea ice decline affects the magnitude and sign of zonal wind response to global warming in the winter and autumn seasons. Presence or absence of sea ice cover impacts the intensity and frequency of winter extreme precipitation and temperature events (temperature minima, number of heavy precipitation days and number of ice days). For some of the analyzed extreme weather indices, the difference between the responses with and without sea ice decline is eliminated when taking into account the amplifying effect of sea ice loss on hemispheric warming. However, in other cases, we find the influence of higher order factors, exerting weaker but opposing effects than those expected from the global temperature increase.",Atmospheric impacts of sea ice decline in CO2 induced global warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+314094,"Climate change looms as the biggest threat of the 21st century, and its effect on urban mortality is exacerbated by urban heat islands. This study analyzes the impact of high temperatures, heatwaves, and the urban heat island on the cardiovascular and respiratory mortality of people over 65 years of age for the years 2002 to 2012. The area of application is Athens, Greece, an urban agglomeration experiencing an urban heat island of high intensity. The correlation of the daily cardiovascular and respiratory mortality count of people over 65 years of age with various temperature measures confirmed a U-shaped exposure response curve, with fewer deaths in the range of moderate temperatures. At high and very high temperatures, this mortality increased by 20% to 35% correspondingly, at a 99.9% significance level. Mortality was further investigated with ordinary least squares, Poisson, and negative binomial times series models, which, although suffering from poor fit, showed a one-day lag for the maximum temperature effect on mortality. Finally, cluster analysis for observations confined to May to September, confirmed by multiple discriminant analysis, showed the existence of six clusters, with the highest excess mortality count of 23% for the cluster that included the hottest days and 20.6% for the heatwave cluster. To this end, it is recommended that policies target high ambient temperatures and heatwaves as a priority.","Mortality Associated with High Ambient Temperatures, Heatwaves, and the Urban Heat Island in Athens, Greece",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+545919,"The number of large, high-severity fires has increased in the western United States over the past 30 years due to climate change and increasing tree density from fire suppression. Fuel quantity, topography, and weather during a burn control fire severity, and the relative contributions of these controls in mixed-severity fires in mountainous terrain are poorly understood. In 2013, the Rim Fire burned a previously studied 2125 ha area of mixed-conifer forest in Yosemite National Park. Data from 84 plots sampled in 2002 revealed increases in tree density, basal area, and fuel buildup since 1899 due to fire exclusion. A dendroecological fire history and reconstruction of forest structure in 1899 showed that this area historically experienced frequent, low-severity fire. In contrast with this region's historical fire regime, burn severity from Landsat imagery showed that this area burned at mixed-severity in the Rim Fire, with 13% of plots classified as unchanged, 31% low severity, 32% moderate severity, and 24% high severity. A random forest model was used to identify the controls of fire severity in this portion of the Rim Fire, using daily area burned, daily fire weather, and fuels and vegetation data for the surface and canopy. Topography, tree species composition, and cover of forbs and shrubs best explained the fire severity. As an example of a re-entry burn, this study demonstrates how fire exclusion alters fire-vegetation interactions, leading to uncharacteristically severe burns and potentially new fire-vegetation dynamics.","Topography, Fuels, and Fire Exclusion Drive Fire Severity of the Rim Fire in an Old-Growth Mixed-Conifer Forest, Yosemite National Park, USA",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+396232,"The present study was conducted with the objective of documenting and assessing the potential of indigenous knowledge towards adaptation to climate change covering a sample of 200 farmers, hundred each from Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan representing Himalayan and Arid ecosystems respectively. Documentation of ITK was done using both primary and secondary source of information. In-depth study was designed by combining survey and anthropological approach of participant study. The major documented indigenous knowledge was 'mind' cultivation, 'chal' to harvest water, 'apple paste' to control diseases and 'siddu' to protect from extreme cold in Himachal Pradesh. Similarly, the major documented indigenous knowledge of Rajasthan were-Khadin' farming system to manage drought, 'kanabandi' to manage soil and wind storm, 'tanka' to harvest water, 'jupka' and 'kothi' for storing the grain and feed, etc. Beside these, the people of both the ecosystems observed the movement of insects and animals (butterfly, ant, and termite) to forecast the rainfall and other climatic parameter. As the indigenous practices hold high potential to address the issue of climate change, these may be promoted after establishing their scientific validity and rationality.",Assessing the Potential of Indigenous Technological Knowledge (ITK) for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Himalayan and Arid ecosystems,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+549902,"Fossil roots from different species of Monopetalanthus as well as from other trees such as Saccoglottis gabonensis have been recovered on the Congolese littoral, near Pointe Noire (11-degrees-E, 4-degrees-S, elevation 0m). Dated between 6 500 and 3 000 yr B.P., these macro remains indicate the occurrence of a dense broad leaved forest under a humid climate. Some identified species such as Monopetalanthus pelligrini, M. letestui are only known today on the Gabonese Monts de Cristal. So, their presence in the fossil assemblage, compared to their modern distribution, allows to speculate a rainfall twice as high during the period between 6 000 and 3 000 yr B.P. on the Congolese littoral as the modern one. This hypothesis is in agreement with marine sedimentological data obtained on the Congolese and neighbouring coastal areas, showing the establishment of more humid conditions (increase in rainfall) from ca 10 000-11 000 yr B.P. Between about 4 000-3 000 yr B.P., the humid forest disappears and is replaced by a forest-savanna mosaic in relation with a climatic degradation. After 3 000 yr B.P., pollen data show short term modifications in the vegetational environment, more particularly a phase of forest regeneration is registered ca 1 600 yr B.P. This phase could be related to a short humid climatic fluctuation previously known in other regions of Africa around 2 000 yr B.P. At the same time, Elaeis guineensis (oil palm) appears and develops on the site. This tree, already recovered from archaeological sites of the region could indicate the beginning of human activity during the last two millenium. Human impact and climatic degradation could be responsible of the disappearance of the forest on the studied site.",CLIMATIC CHANGES AND HUMAN IMPACT ON THE CONGOLESE LITTORAL DURING THE HOLOCENE,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+606194,"Satellite-derived hourly precipitation values over India and neighboring areas are examined during the summer monsoon season of 2004 to determine the observed patterns of diurnal variations. These are compared with the patterns found in the forecasts from the global spectral model in operation at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting in India. The observed hourly precipitation shows that maximum amounts are recorded over most areas of India during the afternoon hours, coinciding with the maximum in surface temperature. This pattern is modified in areas where local mesoscale events like katabatic winds or land-sea breezes produce strong convergence patterns and associated convection. The model forecasts weaken the mesoscale effects on precipitation and the convection due to ground heating seems to start in the model 2-3 h before the time it is observed by the satellites. The frequency and amount of precipitation increases with the forecast length but the hour of maximum precipitation remains almost the same. Harmonic analysis of the frequency of observed precipitation shows that the diurnal cycle predominates in both magnitude and the amount of variance explained. The semidiurnal cycle is considerably smaller in magnitude and explains significant variance only over a small area. Other cycles of smaller periodicity are unimportant in the diurnal variation of precipitation. A similar result is also obtained for the model forecasts except that the spatial distributions of amplitude and variance explained are different from that obtained from the observed data. The spatial distribution and values remain almost the same with forecast length. © 2007 American Meteorological Society.",Diurnal variation in precipitation over India during the summer monsoon season: Observed and model predicted,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+713579,"Average sea-surface temperature and the amount of CO2 dissolved in the ocean are rising as a result of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2. Many coral reef fishes appear to be living close to their thermal optimum, and for some of them, even relatively moderate increases in temperature (2-4 degrees C) lead to significant reductions in aerobic scope. Reduced aerobic capacity could affect population sustainability because less energy can be devoted to feeding and reproduction. Coral reef fishes seem to have limited capacity to acclimate to elevated temperature as adults, but recent research shows that developmental and transgenerational plasticity occur, which might enable some species to adjust to rising ocean temperatures. Predicted increases in P-CO2, and associated ocean acidification, can also influence the aerobic scope of coral reef fishes, although there is considerable interspecific variation, with some species exhibiting a decline and others an increase in aerobic scope at near-future CO2 levels. As with thermal effects, there are transgenerational changes in response to elevated CO2 that could mitigate impacts of high CO2 on the growth and survival of reef fishes. An unexpected discovery is that elevated CO2 has a dramatic effect on a wide range of behaviours and sensory responses of reef fishes, with consequences for the timing of settlement, habitat selection, predator avoidance and individual fitness. The underlying physiological mechanism appears to be the interference of acid-base regulatory processes with brain neurotransmitter function. Differences in the sensitivity of species and populations to global warming and rising CO2 have been identified that will lead to changes in fish community structure as the oceans warm and becomes more acidic; however, the prospect for acclimation and adaptation of populations to these threats also needs to be considered. Ultimately, it will be the capacity for species to adjust to environmental change over coming decades that will determine the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems.",Impact of global warming and rising CO2 levels on coral reef fishes: what hope for the future?,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+532084,"The conservation status of 845 zooxanthellate reef- building coral species was assessed by using International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List Criteria. Of the 704 species that could be assigned conservation status, 32.8% are in categories with elevated risk of extinction. Declines in abundance are associated with bleaching and diseases driven by elevated sea surface temperatures, with extinction risk further exacerbated by local- scale anthropogenic disturbances. The proportion of corals threatened with extinction has increased dramatically in recent decades and exceeds that of most terrestrial groups. The Caribbean has the largest proportion of corals in high extinction risk categories, whereas the Coral Triangle ( western Pacific) has the highest proportion of species in all categories of elevated extinction risk. Our results emphasize the widespread plight of coral reefs and the urgent need to enact conservation measures.",One-third of reef-building corals face elevated extinction risk from climate change and local impacts,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1484846,"An international Open Science Meeting entitled Moving in, out, and across the Subarctic and Arctic marine ecosystems: shifting boundaries of water, ice, flora, fauna, people, and institutions, took place 11-15 June 2017 in Tromso, Norway. Organized by the Ecosystem Studies of Subarctic and Arctic Seas programme and cosponsored by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and the North Pacific Marine Science Organization, the primary aim of the meeting was to examine past, present, and future ecosystem responses to climate variability and ocean acidification (OA) and their effect on fishing communities, the fishing industry and fisheries management in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans and the Arctic. This symposium issue contains several papers from the meeting covering topics from climate and OA, ecosystem responses to environmental change, and fisheries management including: a synthesis of the ecosystem responses to the AMO-linked cold period of the 1970s and 1980s; a novel approach to understand responses to OA in northern climes using natural carbonate chemistry gradients, such as CO2 vents, methane cold seeps, and upwelling area; the possibility that warm temperatures are allowing two generations of Calanus finmarchicus per year to be produced; a new hypothesis suggesting that in areas where sea ice disappears there could be an increase of fish species with swim bladders; results from laboratory experiments on the effects of temperature and food on Arctic and boreal fish larvae; the application of ecosystem-based management in northern regions; and a description of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration approach to marine conservation and how it affects fish populations and fisheries.","Shifting boundaries of water, ice, flora, fauna, people, and institutions in the Arctic and Subarctic",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+758712,"This article considers the Anthropocene, or the age of humans, the new geological epoch that has been proposed to describe the present time. A geological unconformity, however, is missing time, an interval or hiatus in the sedimentary geological record that helps geologists determine where epochs begin and end. It is anticipated that the geological record of the Anthropocene might be visible in the future in the numerous possible unconformities in tornado, hurricane, and earthquake zones, identified by successions of building rubble and metal oxides along with fossilized evidence of radioactive material, plastic pollution, increased carbon dioxide levels, and the shifts, distribution, and extinction of species. As the Anthropocene epoch gains ground and acceptance in a number of disciplinary fields, it promises to alter more than the wording in geological textbooks. The text explores the aporetic nature of geological space and time evoked by thinking about Anthropocene unconformities in an unstable world.",Anthropocene Unconformities: On the Aporias of Geological Space and Time,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+211419,"Since the 1970s, the delivered sugar yield per hectare has risen at an average annual rate of 0 center dot 111 t/ha, while the sugar yield in the official variety trials has increased at an average annual rate of 0 center dot 204 t/ha. These increases are usually considered to be the result of improvements in varieties and in beet agronomy. The present paper considers the possible impact of recent changes in climate on UK sugar yields by using the Broom's Barn Crop Growth Model and daily weather data collected over the last 30 years. Simulations of sugar yield using weather in eastern England since 1976 increased by an average annual rate of 0 center dot 139 t/ha, which accounted for about two thirds of the rate in the official variety trials. This increase was not an artefact of the accuracy of weather recording but it was, in part, accounted for by the trend to earlier sowing. Although it was not statistically significant, the earlier sowing trend was associated with an increase of 0 center dot 025 t/ha per year and was an indirect effect of the climate change. The annual deviations from these trends have not tended to become significantly bigger or smaller over the three decades. The model is not variety-specific, so it makes no allowance for variety improvements during the last 30 years. Clearly, varieties have improved so the implication must be that some of the changes in agronomy have tended to decrease the yields significantly. The changes in agronomic practice most likely to be responsible are the extension of the crop processing campaign, leading to greater post-harvest storage losses, and a decrease in the irrigated area..",The impact of climate change on sugarbeet yield in the UK: 1976-2004,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+77413,"Integrated watershed studies can provide insight into the ways land-use change and climate change interact to transform regional and local hydrology. Most past work has treated baseflow and streamflow separately, and focused either on land-use change or climate change. To assess the relative role of climate change and land-cover change on baseflow, streamflow and peak runoff events for the rapidly urbanizing area surrounding Indianapolis, Indiana, we analyzed long-term records of streamflow, rainfall and land-use data, and performed modeling studies of water fluxes based on reconstructed land-cover change. Statistically significant increasing trends for streamflow and baseflow were present throughout the record, although precipitation did not show similar increases. This indicates that other factors, such as land-use change, had greater influence on watershed hydrology in this area than climate. However, large-scale modeling was not able to demonstrate that changes in hydrology were driven by land-cover change, suggesting that other aspects of land use, such as groundwater withdrawal might be significant. Although more detailed modeling work is required for this specific location, the general framework for integrating studies of streamflow, baseflow and land-cover change presented here is easily transferable to other watersheds and will be of use to communities and government agencies involved in water-resource planning.",The effects of landscape transformation in a changing climate on local water resources,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+37895,"The consequences of warming for Antarctic long-lived organisms depend on their ability to survive changing patterns of climate and environmental variation. Among birds and mammals of different Antarctic regions, including emperor penguins, snow petrels, southern fulmars, Antarctic fur seals and Weddell seals, we found strong support for selection of life history traits that reduce interannual variation in fitness. These species maximize fitness by keeping a low interannual variance in the survival of adults and in their propensity to breed annually, which are the vital rates that influence most the variability in population growth rate (lambda). All these species have been able to buffer these rates against the effects of recent climate-driven habitat changes except for Antarctic fur seals, in the Southwest Atlantic. In this region of the Southern Ocean, the rapid increase in ecosystem fluctuation, associated with increasing climate variability observed since 1990, has limited and rendered less predictable the main fur seal food supply, Antarctic krill. This has increased the fitness costs of breeding for females, causing significant short-term changes in population structure through mortality and low breeding output. Changes occur now with a frequency higher than the mean female fur seal generation time, and therefore are likely to limit their adaptive response. Fur seals are more likely to rely on phenotypic plasticity to cope with short-term changes in order to maximize individual fitness. With more frequent extreme climatic events driving more frequent ecosystem fluctuation, the repercussions for life histories in many Antarctic birds and mammals are likely to increase, particularly at regional scales. In species with less flexible life histories that are more constrained by fluctuation in their critical habitats, like sea-ice, this may cause demographic changes, population compensation and changes in distribution, as already observed in penguin species living in the Antarctic Peninsula and adjacent islands.",Life history buffering in Antarctic mammals and birds against changing patterns of climate and environmental variation,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+313318,"Background, Aims, and Scope. A significant shift towards services has occurred globally though service industry companies are still, typically, neglected when the significant environmental players in the society are listed. However, scientific evidence is increasingly showing that the service sector may produce a notable share of the environmental impact in the society. Unfortunately, very few quantitative studies exist that would have determined the environmentally significant processes of a service industry organization. The purpose of this study is, therefore, to quantify the environmental impact of selected service industry companies, and to identify the processes with the highest environmental contribution. Methods. A multiple case study method with life cycle assessment (LCA) framework using both process and input-output data was used to estimate the environmental impact of four service industry organizations in Europe and the U.S. The companies studied are all international or global companies, and the functional unit of the LCA is the yearly operation of the organization per employee. The firms chosen have noticeable differences in terms of size, location, and their line of business. Results. Regardless the significant differences in the size, location and line of business, the same activities were always found to contribute the most on the environmental impact of the organizations. The office premises clearly contributed the most (some 40%) to the environmental impact and commuting was the second most significant contributing factor (some 20%). The contribution of all the other activities, the business travel, the purchases services, the use of office equipment and the office supplies was found to be clearly less significant. The U.S. based case was found to produce constantly higher impact values than all the other cases. The range of differences between the U.S. case and the others were quite substantial: around two- to five-fold. Interestingly, it seemed that the differences in impacts were explained half by the differences in the surrounding infrastructure and supply chain, and half by the differences in the actual operating quantities of the studied organizations. Discussion. As the results were not particularly sensitive to the changes from company specific processes to the statistical averages in Finland, they could be expected to give a relatively good estimation of a typical Finnish organization in the relevant fields of services industry. However, services industry includes a broad scope of different kinds of companies, and thus the results would probably not apply for all services companies, for example, travel agencies and cleaning services. Conclusions. The result would imply that in several services sectors the office premises related processes could potentially produce significant amount of environmental impacts. In addition, it seems that the LCA method could produce added value for environmental management in services companies because, at the moment, the focus of the environmental objectives there appear biased toward activities not having high environmental importance. Recommendations and Perspectives. Based on the results, many organizations could start their environmental work by concentrating on the office premises related processes. In the future, the environmental significance of services industries in the society should be studied more thoroughly, as the services industry could, based on the results of the study, offer an untapped management potential for sustainable communities.","Environmentally significant processes of consulting, banking and facility management companies in Finland and the US",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+716363,"Background: Multisite time-series studies for temperature-related mortality have been conducted mainly in the United States and Europe, but are lacking in Asia. This multisite time-series study examined mortality related to extreme temperatures (both cold and hot) in Northeast Asia, focusing on 15 cities of 3 high-income countries. Methods: This study includes 3 cities in Taiwan for 1994-2007, 6 cities in Korea for 1992-2010, and 6 cities in Japan for 1972-2009. We used 2-stage Bayesian hierarchical Poisson semiparametric regression to model the nonlinear relationship between temperature and mortality, providing city-specific and countrywide estimates for cold and heat effects. Various exposure time frames, age groups, and causes of death were considered. Results: Cold effects had longer time lags (5-11 days) than heat effects, which were immediate (1-3 days). Cold effects were larger for cities in Taiwan, whereas heat effects were larger for cities in Korea and Japan. Patterns of increasing effects with age were observed in both cold and heat effects. Both cold and heat effects were larger for cardiorespiratory mortality than for other causes of death. Several city characteristics related to weather or air pollution were associated with both cold and heat effects. Conclusions: Mortality increased with either cold or hot temperature in urban populations of high-income countries in Northeast Asia, with spatial variations of effects among cities and countries. Findings suggest that climate factors are major contributors to the spatial heterogeneity of effects in this region, although further research is merited to identify other factors as determinants of variability.",Mortality Related to Extreme Temperature for 15 Cities in Northeast Asia,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1512632,"Coastal environments are among the most productive on the planet, providing a wide range of ecosystem services. Development and exploitation mean that they are faced with stresses from a number of anthropogenic sources. Such stresses are typically studied in isolation, but multiple stressors can combine in unexpected ways to alter the structure of ecological systems. Here, we experimentally explore the impacts of inorganic nutrients and organic matter on a range of food web properties. We find that these two stressors combine additively to produce significant increases in connectance and mean food chain length. Such increases are typically associated with enhanced robustness to secondary extinctions and productivity, respectively. Despite these apparent beneficial effects, we find a simplification of web structure in terms of taxon richness and diversity, and altered proportions of basal and top species. These effects are driven by a reduction in community assembly and lower consistency in a range of system properties as a result of the multiple stressors. Consequently, impacted food webs are likely to be more vulnerable to human- or climate-induced perturbations in the long term.",Multiple anthropogenic stressors and the structural properties of food webs,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1302228,"In the mountainous regions of western North America, snowmelt recharges groundwater and provides ecosystem-sustaining base flow during low-flow periods. Continued warming is expected to have large impacts on snowmelt hydrology and on low-flow regimes, but the relative impact of temperature and precipitation on low flows is unclear. To address this knowledge gap, the dominant climate controls on summer and winter season low flows in 63 near-natural catchments in mountainous ecoregions of western North America are identified with correlation analysis, and low-flow sensitivity to temperature and precipitation is quantified with multiple linear regression analysis. Results show that precipitation is the dominant control on the interannual variability of annual runoff and on the duration and severity of summer and winter low flows. The temperature sensitivity of low flows, however, can be as much as twice that of annual runoff. Warm winters correspond to significantly lower runoff; significantly longer, more severe summer low flows; and significantly shorter winter low flows. This highlights the importance of winter climate conditions for runoff and low flows in these mountain catchments and provides another line of evidence regarding the impacts of climate change on snowmelt hydrology. Plain Language Summary In the mountains of western North American, snowmelt is an important component of streamflow. Precipitation that falls during the winter season is stored as snowpack, and melting of this snowpack generates streamflow. During spring when the snowpack is melting rapidly, streamflow peaks, but during the winter and summer months the contribution of snowmelt to streamflow diminishes, and streamflow is largely sourced from groundwater discharge. These periods correspond to low-flow periods. Continued warming is expected to have large impacts on the timing and magnitude of snowmelt and thus large impacts on the duration and severity of low-flow periods. The relative impact of precipitation and temperature on low flows is currently unclear. Analysis of streamflow and climate data from 63 mountain catchments shows that precipitation is the dominant control on total annual streamflow and on the duration and severity of low flows. Compared to annual streamflow, however, low flows are up to 2 times more sensitive to temperature, particularly winter temperatures above 0 degrees C. With no change in precipitation, continued warming in these mountain catchments will likely yield longer, more severe summer low flows, shorter winter low flows, and an overall decrease in annual streamflow.",Climate Controls on Runoff and Low Flows in Mountain Catchments of Western North America,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+242739,"Climate change and global warming have become the center of public debate as the biggest challenge of the century XXI in a short period of time. This paper aims to present a critical review on the subject of cities and climate change based on an analysis of national and international literature available. It is emphasized that the impacts of climate change are expected in urban areas affecting several sectors of urban life. Empirical evidence shows that local governments are essential to implement policies related to climate change. Overall, the response of cities focuses on mitigation and adaptation. The paper tried to understand the processes of urbanization and industrialization as a way to realize the condition and the origins of urban environmental vulnerability in Brazil, and to alert the large socioeconomic deficits and environmental impacts of Brazilian cities that make policies and responses more urgent and more complicated. Thus, it is not old wine in new bottle, but the opportunity not only to correct past mistakes, but also transform the Brazilian cities for the future in a more sustainable and just manner. For this to happen it is necessary to involve studies in public administration and local governance in these discussions.",A critical review on cities and climate change: Old wine in new bottle or a new paradigm for local governance action?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+553979,"This paper outlines the benefits of using the framework for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) for dealing with the inevitable yet unclear impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coastal fisheries. With a focus on the Asia-Pacific region, it summarizes the projected biological and socio-economic effects of increased emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) for coastal fisheries and illustrates how all the important dimensions of climate change and ocean acidification can be integrated into the steps involved in the EAFM planning process. The activities required to harness the full potential of an EAFM as an adaptation to climate change and ocean acidification are also described, including: provision of the necessary expertise to inform all stakeholders about the risks to fish habitats, fish stocks and catches due to climate change; promotion of trans-disciplinary collaboration; facilitating the participation of all key stakeholders; monitoring the wider fisheries system for climate impacts; and enhancing resources and capacity to implement an EAFM. By channeling some of the resources available to the Asia-Pacific region to adapt to climate change into an EAFM, developing countries will not only build resilience to the ecological and fisheries effects of climate change, they will also help address the habitat degradation and overfishing presently reducing the productivity of coastal fisheries. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.","A climate-informed, ecosystem approach to fisheries management",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+771910,"The spatiotemporal change and trend of annual potential evapotranspiration (PET) over the Loess Plateau of China from 2011 to 2100 are assessed in this work. PET is calculated using the Hargreaves model with monthly mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and a 1 km spatial resolution, which are generated using the Delta downscaling method and general circulation models (GCMs) with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The PET trend is detected via Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator tests. The following results are drawn: (1) the Delta downscaling method shows a favorable performance in detecting GCM monthly temperatures based on the mean absolute error and regression analysis between downscaled data and independent surface observations. Among the 28 GCMs, the NorESM1-M and GISS-E2-R models show the best performance in reproducing the monthly mean/maximum and minimum temperatures over the Loess Plateau, respectively; (2) the average annual PET over this region will increase by 12.7%-23.9% from 1961 to 1990 to the end of this century (2071-2100). However, these increments show strong spatial variations; (3) the annual PET during the 2011-2100 period at each grid of the region demonstrates a significantly increasing trend under each RCP scenario, while RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 have average magnitudes of trend of 10.4 mm/10yr, 17.7 mm/10yr, 21 mm/10yr, and 29.7 min/10yr, respectively; (4) the annual PET with significant trends during the other three periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) presentvarious spatial distributions in their magnitudes of trend under the aforementioned RCP scenarios. RCP2.6 showed a significant decrease during 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, although such trends are only observed at 0.3% and 1.2% of the Loess Plateau, respectively; and (5) the spatial results provide some information, such as locations and area ratios, which are valuable in assessing future PET changes and trends. These spatiotemporal results represent the PET changes and trends in detail and provide insights for developing flexible adaptation and mitigation strategies to combat the effects of global warming in this region. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011-2100,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1393148,"A framework is developed to study variations in winter season precipitation and snow processes and spring season runoff in the alpine basins of the southwestern United States. The framework exploits available high-elevation precipitation and snow water equivalent (SWE) data, and a regional climate model (RegCM) to study two contrasting winter/spring seasons (1994 and 1995). This work examines the influences of large-scale atmospheric conditions on cold season hydrology in the Southwest, assesses the capability of the regional climate model for simulating snowpack and runoff in two major alpine basins and evaluates methodologies fop employing high-elevation observations on regional spatial scales and seasonal time-scales. High elevation data and streamflow measurements from the winter/spring of 1995 show relatively wet conditions, larger snow accumulations and more substantial springtime streamflows in the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada than observations from 1994. Analysis of the large scale atmosphere and surface station data during these periods reaffirms that the wintertime quasi-stationary wave across North America is an important modulator of precipitation, snowpack, and streamflows in the west. The RegCM simulates the large-scale circulations in these 2 years well. Errors are apparent in the simulated precipitation fields and are greater when comparing modeled and observed snowpack and runoff. While the simulated snowpack/streamflow errors are controlled by precipitation deficiencies in the Rocky Mountain region, in the Sierra Nevada region the errors are determined by elevation and associated temperature errors. Despite an underprediction of snowpack and runoff, the model is able to reproduce the overall patterns of precipitation and snowcover and to some extent the year to year hydrologic variations. Continued time series of the data employed in this study (high-elevation precipitation and SWE and streamflow measurements) are crucial for seasonal and interannual studies of mater resources in the west.",A framework for the study of seasonal snow hydrology and its interannual variability in the alpine regions of the Southwest,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1448706,"Efforts to improve surgical care by using checklists have been inconsistent in results and not reproducible at scale. The ideal manner for using checklists, along with the time horizon for achieving meaningful and measurable benefits, has been unclear. This article describes a novel process for utilizing debriefing checklists to improve value in surgical care. Debriefings of 54 003 consecutive surgical cases and subsequent analysis of 4523 defects in care by multidisciplinary teams led to rapid-cycle iterative changes in care design and processes. Four dimensions of health care value were achieved: debrief-driven improvements reduced the proportion of surgical cases with reported defects, was associated with a significant reduction in the 30-day unadjusted surgical mortality, lowered costs by substantial gains in efficiency and productivity, and led to a better workforce safety climate. Meaningful and sustained improvements required consistent broad-based teamwork over multiple years, an evidence-based data-driven approach, and senior leader and governance engagement.",Use of a Surgical Debriefing Checklist to Achieve Higher Value Health Care,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+459561,"This paper explores changes in climatic variables, including solar radiation, rainfall, fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) and temperature, during wheat season (October to May) and maize season (June to September) from 1961 to 2003 at four sites in the North China Plain (NCP), and then evaluates the effects of these changes on crop growth processes, productivity and water demand by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator. A significant decline in radiation and rainfall was detected during the 43 years, while both temperature and FDR exhibit an increasing trend in both wheat and maize seasons. The average trend of each climatic variable for each crop season from the four sites is that radiation decreased by 13.2 and 6.2 MJ m(-2) a(-1), precipitation decreased by 0.1 and 1.8 mm a(-1), minimum temperature increased by 0.05 and 0.02A degrees C a(-1), maximum temperature increased by 0.03 and 0.01A degrees C a(-1), FDR increased by 0.21 and 0.38% a(-1) during wheat and maize season, respectively. Simulated crop water demand and potential yield was significantly decreased because of the declining trend in solar radiation. On average, crop water demand was decreased by 2.3 mm a(-1) for wheat and 1.8 mm a(-1) for maize if changes in crop variety were not considered. Simulated potential crop yields under fully irrigated condition declined about 45.3 kg ha(-1) a(-1) for wheat and 51.4 kg ha(-1) a(-1) for maize at the northern sites, Beijing and Tianjin. They had no significant changes in the southern sites, Jinan and Zhengzhou. Irrigation, fertilization development and crop variety improvement are main factors to contribute to the increase in actual crop yield for the wheat-maize double cropping system, contrasted to the decline in the potential crop yield. Further research on how the improvement in crop varieties and management practices can counteract the impact of climatic change may provide insight into the future sustainability of wheat-maize double crop rotations in the NCP.",Quantifying the effects of climate trends in the past 43 years (1961-2003) on crop growth and water demand in the North China Plain,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+448320,"Climate changes, particularly global warming, are attributable to human activities, mainly fossil fuel burning which releases greenhouse gases such as CO2. The emissions Of CO2 continue to rise, and climate models project 1.1 degrees C to 6.4 degrees C rise of average surface temperature over the 21(st) century. Health effects from global warming range from increased mortality by extreme weather, floods, and storms to increase of diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, and diarrhea. Korea is not immune to health impacts from global warming. Data on daily temperature of Seoul in 1994 showed a clear association with daily mortality. Rise of sea and surface temperatures also indicates possibility of increase in infectious diseases in Korea. Concentrations of ambient pollutants, particularly ozone, were shown to be associated with surface temperature. Therefore, we are already in the influence of climate change. Adaptation strategy to climate changes is basically a matter of public health, Well -prepared programs for responding to climate changes will minimize health risks. The most effective responses are strengthening of the key functions of environmental management, surveillance, and response to natural disasters and changes of disease patterns associated with global warming. We need to intensify our efforts in preventive public health, and ensure sustainable development and protection of ecosystem for human health.",Climate change and human health,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+557774,"Recent efforts to influence the efficiency and timing of urban indoor water use through education, technology, conservation, reuse, economic incentives, and regulatory mechanisms have enabled many North American cities to accommodate population growth and buffer impacts of drought. It is unlikely that this approach will be equally successful into the future because the source of conservation will shift from indoor to outdoor use. Outdoor water is climate sensitive, difficult to measure, hard to predict, linked to other components of complex and dynamic urban resource systems, imbued with behavioral and cultural dimensions, and implicated in societal conflicts about climate risk, modern lifestyles, social justice, and future growth. Outdoor water conservation is not a traditional management problem focused on the water sector, assuming a stationary climate, and set aside from public debate. Instead, outdoor water is an adaptation problem, involving complex and uncertain system dynamics, the need for cross-sector coordination, strategies for dealing with climatic uncertainty, and mechanisms for engaging stakeholders with differing goals. This paper makes the case for treating outdoor water as an adaptation problem and offers a six-point strategy for how cities can better prepare their water systems for the uncertainties of climate and societal change.",Outdoor Water Use as an Adaptation Problem: Insights from North American Cities,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+470489,"Long-term changes in coral cover for the Caribbean and the Pacific/Southeast Asia regions (PSEA) have proven extremely useful in assessing the main drivers, magnitude and timescales of change. The one major coral reef region where such assessments have not been made is the Indian Ocean (IO). Here, we compiled coral cover survey data from across the IO into a database of similar to 2,000 surveys from 366 coral reef sites collected between 1977 and 2005. The compilation shows that the 1998 mass coral bleaching event was the single most important and widespread factor influencing the change in coral cover across the region. The trend in coral cover followed a step-type function driven by the 1998 period, which differs from findings in the Caribbean and the PSEA regions where declines have been more continuous and mostly began in the 1980s. Significant regional variation was observed, with most heterogeneity occurring during and after 1998. There was a significant relationship between cover and longitude for all periods, but the relationship became stronger in the period immediately after 1998. Before 1998, highest coral cover was observed in the central IO region, while this changed to the eastern region after 1998. Coral cover and latitude displayed a significant U-shaped relationship immediately after 1998, due to a large decrease in cover in the northern-central regions. Post-1998 coral cover was directly correlated to the impact of the disturbance; areas with the lowest mortality having the highest cover with India-Sri Lanka being an outlier due to its exceptionally high recovery. In 1998, reefs within Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) were more heavily impacted than unmanaged reefs, losing significantly greater total cover. MPA recovery was greater such that no differences were observed by 2001-2005. This study indicates that the regional patterns in coral cover distribution in the IO are driven mainly by episodic and acute environmental stress.",Episodic heterogeneous decline and recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1836127,"Much has been achieved from the work of scientists in Antarctica since the launching of International Polar Year. Still, with all those scientific reports and progress it is necessary for the policy makers to review and understand the physical and chemical climate system of the Antarctic region. The policy makers in most States had taken seriously of this information and had formulated new legislation on the basis of preserving, preventing and guarding the future environment of Antarctica as dictates by the Antarctic Treaty System and the Madrid Protocol 1991. However, the present local legislations must also undergo similar transformation in order to condone the impact of global climate change. Prior to the amendment, the local legislation must first take into consideration the common law duty to the greenhouse gas impacts arising from major new development projects in reducing their new emissions. This is consistent with 'The Polluter Pays Principle' which the spirit must be part of the transformation of the local legislations. The study is significant for Malaysia as the findings will allow present legislations to be transformed in line with the desire to preserve not just Antarctica environment but also to diminish global warming for the good of mankind as a whole. (C) 2012 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of Asia-Pacific Chemical, Biological & Environmental Engineering Society",Antarctic Treaty System and Madrid Protocol 1991: Transformation of Legislation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2341748,"Based on daily, monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation, monthly duration and flood-affected area data from 1954 to 2007, we examined the absolute and relative change trends of rainfall and their effects on hazard intensity in Wenzhou city, China. The long-term trend of precipitation was studied by linear regression, moving average, cumulative anomaly and Z index methods, respectively. Our results show that there was no significant downward trend of annual precipitation. In contrast, there was significant decrease in autumn, July, mid-January and early June and significant increase in early January and late May, especially in late June. During 1954 and 2007, although significant fluctuation existed in the absolute value of precipitation, the relative changes of wet and dry were not significant compared with the average. The 10-year decrease in precipitation was 23.37 mm in autumn, 14.85 mm in July, 0.33 mm in mid-January and 6.87 mm in early June; while the 10-year increase was 0.35 mm in early January, 3.05 mm in late May and 8.57 mm in late June, respectively. Moreover, we found that 1964, 1966, 1977 and 1995 were the transition periods when the rainfall Z index was at peaks, the flood intensity was high, and the drought intensity was relatively low. On the other hand, 1958, 1968, 1971, 1980, 1989 and 1992 were the periods when the rainfall Z index was at valleys, the flood intensity was low, and the drought intensity was relatively high. Taken together, we demonstrated the obvious effects of precipitation changes on flood and drought intensities.","Fifty-year rainfall change and its effect on droughts and floods in Wenzhou, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+776734,"The global climate is changing and altering the hydrologic cycle that results in (i) reduction of water supply; (ii) increase in frequency and magnitude of flood and drought events; (iii) damage to the shoreline areas; (iv) increase in irrigation water use; (v) decrease in quality of all freshwater sources; and (vi) increase in functional and operational requirements for the existing water infrastructure. The paper provides the review of water resources management challenges posed by the climate change. In order to provide guidance for including climate change impacts into water management studies, a generic approach is detailed for potential implementation in practice. Methods for selecting global climate models and emission scenarios, followed by bias correction and downscaling are discussed. The paper ends with the description of one practical example, IDF_CC, a web based tool for updating intensity duration frequency curves under changing climate. The tool is designed in response to real needs of water engineering practice and has been in use in Canada since early 2015.",Bringing Future Climatic Change into Water Resources Management Practice Today,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1515435,"This study presents a detailed analysis on the role of snow cover during the cold season (October-March) on soil moisture deficit and drought development during the growing season (April-September) in the lowland and highland sites in the Czech Republic. Besides daily, weekly and seasonal series of basic snow-cover characteristics [the first day and the last day of snow cover, the number of days with snow cover (DSC), snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE)] and soil water content measurements, six drought indices have been used in this study to quantify drought. Accumulations of years with significantly below average DSC/SWE were recorded in the early 1960s, mid-1980s, late 1990s and most of the 2000s. The trend towards an earlier end date of snow cover is found in both lowland and highland sites. However, the most significant shift in the dates of early end of snow cover has been identified to occur mostly in the hilly areas while in the lowland areas, these changes are not that evident. Liquid precipitation more than solid precipitation (snowfall) during the cold season lead to weakening correlation between SWE/DSC and the subsequent early summer (April-May-June, AMJ) soil moisture. Snow-cover characteristics can significantly influence soil water saturation during the first part of the growing season, while seasonal amount of SWE can explain up to 45% of soil moisture variability during AMJ season. More than 52% of dry AMJ followed after cold seasons with poor snow, and 42% of wet AMJ season followed after cold seasons with abundant snow. The strength of correlation between drought indices and soil moisture anomalies is higher in later summer. The negative anomalous snow characteristics in conjunction with winter and AMJ drought amplify lingering impact on the depletion of soil moisture in the later summer.",Driving role of snow cover on soil moisture and drought development during the growing season in the Czech Republic,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+491474,"Forest declines are well-studied phenomena. However, recent patterns suggest that the traditional sequence of events and factors involved in forest decline are changing. Several reports in recent decades involve emergent mortality agents, many of which are native insects and diseases. In addition, changing climate and weather patterns place increasing emphasis on root dynamics in forest decline, given the critical role of roots in susceptibility (loss of fine roots) and tolerance (deep-rooting) to drought. Contrasting successive extremes of wet and dry periods could negatively affect tree carbon (C) balance and water relations, which may provide an advantage to secondary agents such as root pathogens (e.g. Armillaria and Phytophthora spp.). We searched for patterns potentially implying mechanisms of mortality among several recent hardwood decline events (mostly in oak forests, Quercus spp.) linked to novel associations often involving drought or hot drought, an apparent absence of defoliation, and a secondary bark- or wood-boring insect in a more aggressive tree-killing role than has been typically observed. To further explore one likely mechanism, we utilized a case study featuring an emergent mortality agent, the red oak borer, Enaphalodes rufulus (Haldeman) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), which, interacting with drought and forest history, resulted in an unprecedented oak mortality event (1999-2003, Ozark region, USA). Examination of long-term patterns of radial growth revealed that oaks surviving decline episodes often exhibited slow growth early during forest development, yet became superior competitors later on, and exhibited non-linear growth dynamics throughout their lives; trees that died often exhibited the opposite pattern, with rapid growth early in life and linear growth dynamics. We speculate that these different growth strategies could be related to patterns of resource allocation facilitated by root origins (sprout vs. seedling) and/or microsite conditions, and driven or influenced by repeated drought. Carbon balance dysfunction, a long-term affliction of oaks that eventually manifests itself in an episode of decline, may be the underlying mechanism of oak mortality during decline. It is likely caused by changes in C supply and demand during drought and/or defoliation that compromise oaks by depleting C reserves, or somehow inhibiting translocation of stored C to repair damaged tissues and resist secondary biotic agents. Ultimately, successive drought and persistent activity by these insects and pathogens kill affected oaks. Parallels among different hardwood ecosystems exist, and can be used to help predict future scenarios and guide new avenues of study. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Emergent insects, pathogens and drought shape changing patterns in oak decline in North America and Europe",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3317500,"The purpose of this study was to examine the level of understanding and perceptions of climate change using the variables of major, gender, and class level with a sample of undergraduate college students. Using a Likert-type questionnaire, data were collected from a randomly selected sample in a Midwest college in the United States. The study found that students in the tourism major were similar in their understanding and perceptions of climate change when compared to non-tourism majors. Males and females differed in their overall climate change knowledge and perceptions regarding climate change. In addition, class level (year 1-4) had a significant impact on students' climate change perceptions and understanding of climate change knowledge. These and other findings from the study have important implications for tourism education and curriculum development relative to climate change issues, particularly at the post-secondary and college levels.","College Students' Knowledge and Perceptions of Tourism Climate Change Impacts: Do Major, Grade and Gender Matter?",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2320065,"Western Oregon (WO) has a temperate, Mediterranean climate with characteristic warm, dry summers and mild, wet winters. The region is near the northern perimeter of this climate type, with 800 mm precipitation which falls mainly from October to May and 12-16 days when high temperatures exceed 32 degrees C. Therefore, WO has reduced heat and drought stress compared to areas further south, allowing Mediterranean-climate plants to be grown without irrigation in the landscape while retaining satisfactory appearance. The main challenge for growing some Mediterranean-climate plants in WO is lack of cold hardiness. Typical winter temperatures in the region range from -6 to -12 degrees C, however periodic winter freezes of greater severity can damage marginally hardy plants. To expand the selection of shrubs for low-input landscapes in the region, evaluations of several genera have been conducted under the name 'Northwest Plant Evaluations'. This program has focused on evaluating plants for cold hardiness, attractive form and drought tolerance. Evaluations of Ceanothus, Cistus and Halimium were conducted from 2003-2009. Arctostaphylos and Grevillea evaluations were initiated in 2009. Plants are collected as stem cuttings, rooted, and grown-on before planting out in a replicated field plot. After establishment, plants are not irrigated, fertilized or pruned. Data on establishment, growth, flowering, foliage quality, cold-hardiness and pest problems are recorded. Cultivars selected from these evaluations as being superior in cold hardiness, attractive form, and drought tolerance include Ceanothus 'Blue Jeans', Cistus xobtusifolius, C. 'Snow Fire' and Halimium lasianthum 'Sandling'.",Selection of Drought-Tolerant Shrubs for Temperate Mediterranean Climates,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1825634,"The quality of senesced leaves is a strong driver for litter decomposition and nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. The effects of global change factors and ecosystem management strategies on nutrients and stoichiometry of mature leaves have been well established. In contrast, we still know little about their effects on the quality of senesced leaves, which would be different from that of mature leaves due to the occurrence of nutrient resorption during leaf senescence. We examined the effects of nitrogen (N) addition (5.25g N m(-2) yr(-1)), prescribed fire (with four frequencies, including no burning and burning every 1, 2, 4 years), and their interactions on N and phosphorus (P) concentrations and N:P ratios in senesced leaves of five dominant species in a temperate steppe of northern China. Nutrient concentrations and N:P ratios of senesced leaves varied substantially among the five species. Nitrogen addition increased N concentrations and N:P ratios but had no significant effect on P concentrations. Fire significantly increased N and P concentrations and N:P ratios in senesced leaves across all species. The effects of fire depended on its frequency. There was no interaction between N addition and fire in affecting nutrient concentrations and stoichiometry of senesced leaves. Our results suggested that N addition and fire can potentially alter litter quality by changing senesced leaves nutrient status and stoichiometric ratios, with an indirect effect on litter decomposition and ecosystem nutrient cycling in the grassland ecosystems. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Responses of nutrient concentrations and stoichiometry of senesced leaves in dominant plants to nitrogen addition and prescribed burning in a temperate steppe,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3929445,"Fractures of denture base polymer material are one of the most frequent reasons for repair of removable dentures. Therefore, there is a continuous effort to strengthen them, and polymer materials of high resistance to fracture are being developed. The aim of this study was to determine the flexural strength of denture base polymers (pressure-heat polymerizing and auto polymerizing) reinforced with E-glass fibers and high impact strength resin (injectional polymerization) material using the ""short beam"" method. Specimens were tested after polymerization and after artificial ageing performed by storage at 37°C temperature during 28 days and thermocycling. Microscopic examination was performed to determine the quality of bonding between glass fibers and matrix. The study showed significantly higher values of flexural strength (130.1-163.88 MPa) of glass fiber reinforced specimens compared to the un-reinforced specimens (91.77-122.75 MPa) - control group, matching those of high impact strength resin (145.67 MPa). Between the groups of samples tested after polymerization and storage in water at 37°C during 28 days there was no statistically significant difference in flexural strength values while samples tested after thermocycling unexpectedly revealed significantly higher values. Fiber reinforced materials and high impact strength resin revealed similar results of flexural strength both being acceptable for clinical use. Obtained results suggest that the increase of temperature (during thermocycling) had the effect of prolonged polymerization which resulted in a decrease of residual monomer volume, enhancing polymer mechanical properties.",Flexural strength of E - glass fiber reinforced dental polymer and dental high impact strength resin,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+787782,"The West Coast of the United States experienced variable and sometimes highly unusual oceanographic conditions between 2012 and 2015. In particular, a warm mass of surface water known as the Pacific Warm Anomaly (popularly as ""TheBlob"") impinged on southern California in 2014, and warm-water conditions remained during the 2015 El Nino. We examine how this oceanographic variability affected delivery and individual characteristics of larval spotted sand bass (Paralabrax maculatofasciatus) to an estuarine nursery habitat in southern California. To quantify P. maculatofasciatus settlement patterns, three larval collectors were installed near the mouth of Mission Bay, San Diego CA, and retrieved weekly from June-October of 2012-2015. During 'Blob' conditions in 2014 and 2015, lower settlement rates of spotted sand bass were associated with higher sea surface temperature and lower wind speed, chlorophyll a (chl a) and upwelling. Overall, the number of settlers per day peaked at intermediate chl a values across weeks. Individual characteristics of larvae that settled in 2014-2015 were consistent with a poor feeding environment. Although settlers were longer in length in 2014-15, fish in these years had slower larval otolith growth, a longer larval duration, and a trend towards lower condition, traits that are often associated with lower survival and recruitment. This study suggests that future settlement and recruitment of P. maculatofasciatus and other fishes with similar life histories may be adversely affected in southern California if ocean temperatures continue to rise in the face of climate change.","Effects of the Blob on settlement of spotted sand bass, Paralabrax maculatofasciatus, to Mission Bay, San Diego, CA",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+725452,"The effect of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and sulphate aerosols on near-surface temperature is investigated using a version of the Hadley Centre atmospheric model coupled to a mixed layer ocean. The scattering of sunlight by sulphate aerosols is represented by appropriately enhancing the surface albedo. On doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, the global mean temperature increases by 5.2 K. An integration with a 39% increase in CO2, giving the estimated change in radiative heating due to increases in greenhouse gases since 1900, produced an equilibrium warming of 2.3 K, which, even allowing for oceanic inertia, is significantly higher than the observed warming over the same period. Furthermore, the simulation suggests a substantial warming everywhere, whereas the observations indicate isolated regions of cooling, including parts of the northern midlatitude continents. The addition of an estimate of the effect of scattering by current industrial aerosols (uncertain by a factor of at least 3) leads to improved agreement with the observed pattern of changes over the northern continents and reduces the global mean warming by about 30%. Doubling the aerosol forcing produces patterns that are still compatible with the observations, but further increase leads to unrealistically extensive cooling in the midlatitudes. The diurnal range of surface temperature decreases over most of the northern extratropics on increasing CO2, in agreement with recent observations. The addition of the current industrial aerosol had little detectable effect on the diurnal range in the model because the direct effect of reduced solar heating at the surface is approximately balanced by the indirect effects of cooling. Thus, the ratio of the reduction in diurnal range to the mean warming is increased, in closer agreement with observations. Results from further sensitivity experiments with larger increases in aerosol and CO2 are presented. Although the aerosol forcing is a strong maximum in the northern midlatitudes in summer, the response is fairly even throughout the year because sea ice feedbacks amplify the cooling in winter. Increasing the aerosol loading produces a consistent increase in the globally averaged diurnal temperature range, associated with the mean reduction in temperature, though the diurnal range decreases slightly where the aerosol loading is greatest. The response to increased CO2 is compared with that in other models.","ON SURFACE-TEMPERATURE, GREENHOUSE GASES, AND AEROSOLS - MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1434298,"In this paper we document changes of Langfjordjokelen, a small ice cap in northern Norway. Surface mass-balance measurements have been carried out on an east-facing part (3.2 km(2)) of the ice cap since 1989. Measurements reveal a strong thinning; the balance year 2008/09 was the 13th successive year with significant negative annual balance (<=-0.30 m w.e.). The average annual deficit was 0.9 m w.e. over 1989-2009. The recent thinning of Langfjordjokelen is stronger than observed for any other glacier in mainland Norway. Maps from 1966, 1994 and 2008 show that the whole ice cap is shrinking. The total volume loss over 1966-2008 was 0.264 km(3). The east-facing part has been greatly reduced in volume (46%), area (38%) and length (20%). For this part over 1994-2008, the cumulative direct mass balance (-14.5 m w.e.) is less negative than the geodetic mass balance (-17.7 m w.e.). A surface mass-balance model using upper-air meteorological data was used to reconstruct annual balances back to 1948 and to reconstruct unmeasured years 1994 and 1995. Sensitivity of annual balance to 1 degrees C warming is -0.76 m w.e. and to 10% increase in precipitation is +0.20 m w.e.","Langfjordjokelen, a rapidly shrinking glacier in northern Norway",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1500377,"Severe events such as floods or cyclones can have large ecological effects on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. The capacity of an ecosystem to adapt to, or absorb, the effects of a severe event depends on the severity and longevity of the event and the tolerance of the species present. Seagrasses exhibit phenotypic plasticity at the plant to meadow scale through a variety of physiological and morphological acclimations to light stress to enhance photosynthetic capacity. These acclimations provide early warning of the possible risk of larger scale seagrass loss and can therefore be used in predicting how ecosystems might respond to severe events. The physiological and morphological responses of 12 seagrass (Zostera muelleri) meadows to a severe flood were examined to test two main hypotheses: (i) that the physiological and morphological characteristics of seagrass would differ between meadows along the established chronic water quality gradient, in a pattern consistent with prior acclimations which have been shown to enhance photosynthetic capacity and (ii) that physiological and morphological responses to the flood would differ between meadows in a manner consistent with their position along the water quality gradient. Meadows had different physiological and morphological characteristics across the water quality gradient, with meadows subject to chronically poorer water quality exhibiting characteristics consistent with those that maximize photosynthetic capacity. Despite a large discrepancy in impact among meadows, all meadows sampled responded consistently to the flood, exhibiting only physiological changes with no significant reduction in biomass. This suggests that photoacclimation to chronically poor conditions can enable seagrasses to withstand the effects of severe events, such as floods. Synthesis. Phenotypic plasticity in habitat-forming species can result in a large variation in their responses to severe events, such as floods or cyclones. Acclimation to prior poor environmental conditions can promote persistence in habitat-forming species, such as seagrasses, following severe events. The measurement of phenotypic characteristics along an impact gradient can therefore provide an indication of the response of habitat-forming species to severe events.",Phenotypic plasticity promotes persistence following severe events: physiological and morphological responses of seagrass to flooding,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1692237,"Devastating floods adversely affect human life and infrastructure. Various regions of the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas receive intense monsoon rainfall, which, together with snow and glacier melt, produce intense floods. The Kabul river basin originates from the Hindukush Mountains and is frequently hit by such floods. We analyses flood frequency and intensity in Kabul basin for a contemporary period (1981-2015) and two future periods (i.e., 2031-2050 and 2081-2100) using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on four bias-corrected downscaled climate models (INM-CM4, IPSL-CM5A, EC-EARTH, and MIROC5). Future floods are modelled with the SWAT hydrological model. The model results suggest an increasing trend due to an increasing precipitation and higher temperatures (based on all climate models except INM-CM4), which accelerates snow and glacier-melt. All of the scenario results show that the current flow with a 1 in 50 year return period is likely to occur more frequently (i.e., 1 in every 9-10 years and 2-3 years, respectively) during the near and far future periods. Such increases in intensity and frequency are likely to adversely affect downstream population and infrastructures. This, therefore, urges for appropriate early precautionary mitigation measures. This study can assist water managers and policy makers in their preparation to adequately plan for and manage flood protection. Its findings are also relevant for other basins in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas region.",Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency and Intensity in the Kabul River Basin,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+205890,"Climate change driven alterations in the distribution and abundance of marine species, and the timing of their life history events (phenology), are being reported around the globe. However, we have limited capacity to detect and predict these responses, even for comparatively well studied commercial fishery species. Fisheries provide significant socio-economic benefits for many coastal communities, and early warning of potential changes to fish stocks will provide managers and other stakeholders with the best opportunity to adapt to these impacts. Rapid assessment methods that can estimate the sensitivity of species to climate change in a wide range of contexts are needed. This study establishes an objective, flexible and cost effective framework for prioritising future ecological research and subsequent investment in adaptation responses in the face of resource constraints. We build on an ecological risk assessment framework to assess relative sensitivities of commercial species to climate change drivers, specifically in relation to their distribution, abundance and phenology, and demonstrate our approach using key species within the fast warming region of south-eastern Australia. Our approach has enabled fisheries managers to understand likely changes to fisheries under a range of climate change scenarios, highlighted critical research gaps and priorities, and assisted marine industries to identify adaptation strategies that maximise positive outcomes.",Rapid assessment of fisheries species sensitivity to climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+9195,"This research examines the relationship of abiotic factors to the autumn number increase of Eurasian woodcocks in a wintering area. Data on the number of woodcocks spotted per day using dogs for 12 years in an area of Macedonia are presented. From these records, we attempt to correlate the increase in number of woodcocks with moon phase, photoperiod, temperature, precipitation, visibility, wind intensity and barometric pressure. Meteorological data were obtained from five meteorological stations located in the study area, breeding areas and along the migration route. Descriptive and applied statistics [Factor Analysis, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Binary Logistic Regression] were used for the analysis. Woodcock numbers increase significantly in October and November. Barometric pressure, wind and precipitation, as measured by the nearer climatic stations to the study area, influence the increase in number of woodcocks. The between-years analysis showed that woodcocks' arrival was delayed in warmer autumns. Correlating the numerical increase of woodcocks with abiotic factors is a complicated phenomenon, but the constructed model provides evidence for some patterns and it facilitates the design of a future study.","Abiotic factors and autumn migration phenology of Woodcock (Scolopax rusticola Linnaeus, 1758, Charadriiformes: Scolopacidae) in a Mediterranean area",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1480469,"Wildfires are common in boreal forests around the globe and strongly influence ecosystem processes. However, North American forests support more high-intensity crown fires than Eurasia, where lower-intensity surface fires are common. These two types of fire can result in different net effects on climate as a consequence of their contrasting impacts on terrestrial albedo and carbon stocks. Here we use remote-sensing imagery, climate reanalysis data and forest inventories to evaluate differences in boreal fire dynamics between North America and Eurasia and their key drivers. Eurasian fires were less intense, destroyed less live vegetation, killed fewer trees and generated a smaller negative shortwave forcing. As fire weather conditions were similar across continents, we suggest that different fire dynamics between the two continents resulted from their dominant tree species. In particular, species that have evolved to spread and be consumed by crown fires as part of their life cycle dominate North American boreal forests. In contrast, tree species that have evolved to resist and suppress crown fires dominate Eurasian boreal forests. We conclude that species-level traits must be considered in global evaluations of the effects of fire on emissions and climate.",Influence of tree species on continental differences in boreal fires and climate feedbacks,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+204294,"Climate warming affects arctic and boreal ecosystems by interacting with numerous biophysical factors across heterogeneous landscapes. To assess potential effects of warming on diverse local-scale ecosystems (ecotypes) across northwest Alaska, we compiled data on historical areal changes over the last 25-50 years. Based on historical rates of change relative to time and temperature, we developed three state-transition models to project future changes in area for 60 ecotypes involving 243 potential transitions during three 30-year periods (ending 2040, 2070, 2100). The time model, assuming changes over the past 30 years continue at the same rate, projected a net change, or directional shift, of 6 % by 2100. The temperature model, using past rates of change relative to the past increase in regional mean annual air temperatures (1 A degrees C/30 year), projected a net change of 17 % in response to expected warming of 2, 4, and 6 A degrees C at the end of the three periods. A rate-adjusted temperature model, which adjusted transition rates (+/- 50 %) based on assigned feedbacks associated with 23 biophysical drivers, estimated a net change of 13 %, with 33 ecotypes gaining and 23 ecotypes losing area. Major drivers included shrub and tree expansion, fire, succession, and thermokarst. Overall, projected changes will be modest over the next century even though climate warming increased transition rates up to 9 fold. The strength of this state-transition modeling is that it used a large dataset of past changes to provide a comprehensive assessment of likely future changes associated with numerous drivers affecting the full diversity of ecosystems across a broad region.",Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming and biophysical drivers in northwest Alaska,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1531418,"Marine sediments preserve useful information for reconstructing oceanographic conditions and environmental changes in the past. In this study, the authors have evaluated an efficient near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) method for simultaneous determination of total C (TC), total inorganic C (TIC), total organic C (TOC), magnetic susceptibility (MS), the ratio of di- and tri-unsaturated C-37 alkenones (U-37(k)'), and delta(18)O of foraminiferal shells in marine sediments. Near-infrared diffused reflectance spectra (1100-2500 nm) of 172 sediments recovered from the IMAGES Core MD972151, located in the southwestern South China Sea, were analyzed and correlated with the abovementioned parameters using partial least squares regression (PLSR) procedures. The leave-one-out cross-validation results showed that TC and TIC were successfully predicted (r(2) > 0.93) while MS, Uk(37)(k)' and delta(18)O were estimated with moderate accuracy racy (r(2) > 0.76). The concentrations of TOC, however, could not be estimated with high precision (r(2) = 0.34), which is possibly a result of the low and narrow range of organic C in this specific core. The results indicate that NIRS has the potential to be a rapid analytical tool for continuous marine core examination, although uncertainties associated with TOC need further investigation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Rapid determination of chemical and physical properties in marine sediments using a near-infrared reflectance spectroscopic technique,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+603240,"Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. The most common methods for predicting the response of biodiversity to changing climate do not explicitly incorporate fundamental evolutionary and ecological processes that determine species responses to changing climate, such as reproduction, dispersal, and adaptation. We provide an overview of an emerging mechanistic spatial theory of species range shifts under climate change. This theoretical framework explicitly defines the ecological processes that contribute to species range shifts via biologically meaningful dispersal, reproductive, and climate envelope parameters. We present methods for estimating the parameters of the model with widely available species occurrence and abundance data and then apply these methods to empirical data for 12 North American butterfly species to illustrate the potential use of the theory for global change biology. The model predicts species persistence in light of current climate change and habitat loss. On average, we estimate that the climate envelopes of our study species are shifting north at a rate of 3.25 +/- 1.36 km/yr (mean +/- SD) and that our study species produce 3.46 +/- 1.39 (mean +/- SD) viable offspring per individual per year. Based on our parameter estimates, we are able to predict the relative risk of our 12 study species for lagging behind changing climate. This theoretical framework improves predictions of global change outcomes by facilitating the development and testing of hypotheses, providing mechanistic predictions of current and future range dynamics, and encouraging the adaptive integration of theory and data. The theory is ripe for future developments such as the incorporation of biotic interactions and evolution of adaptations to novel climatic conditions, and it has the potential to be a catalyst for the development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate losses of biodiversity from global climate change.",Mechanistic models for the spatial spread of species under climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2329404,"Mass balances of total arsenic and copper for a suburban lake in densely populated northern Virginia were calculated using data collected during 1998. Mass-balance terms were precipitation; stream inflow, including road runoff; stream outflow; and contributions from leaching of pressure-treated lumber. More mass of arsenic and copper was input to the lake than was output; the 1998 lake-retention rates were 70% for arsenic and 20% for copper, The arsenic mass balance compared well with a calculated annual mass accumulation in the top 1 cm of the lake sediments; however, the calculated contribution of copper to the lake was insufficient to account for the amount of copper in this zone. Leaching experiments were conducted on lumber treated with chromated copper arsenate (CCA) to quantify approximate amounts of arsenic and copper contributed by this source. Sources to lake sediments included leaching of CCA-treated lumber (arsenic, 50%; copper, 4%), streamwater (arsenic, 50%; copper, 90%), and atmospheric deposition (arsenic, 1%; copper, 3%). Results of this study suggest that CCA-treated lumber and road runoff could be significant nonpoint sources of arsenic and copper, respectively, in suburban catchments.","Anthropogenic sources of arsenic and copper to sediments in a suburban lake, northern Virginia",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+444970,"The restricted distribution and isolation of island endemics often produces unique genetic and phenotypic diversity of conservation interest to management agencies. However, these isolated species, especially those with sensitive life history traits, are at high risk for the adverse effects of genetic drift and habitat degradation by non-native wildlife. Here, we study the population genetic diversity, structure, and stability of a classic ""island giant"" (Xantusia riversiana, the Island Night Lizard) on San Clemente Island, California following the removal of feral goats. Using DNA microsatellites, we found that this population is reasonably genetically robust despite historical grazing, with similar effective population sizes and genetic diversity metrics across all sampling locations irrespective of habitat type and degree of degradation. However, we also found strong site-specific patterns of genetic variation and low genetic diversity compared to mainland congeners, warranting continued special management as an island endemic. We identify both high and low elevation areas that remain valuable repositories of genetic diversity and provide a case study for other low-dispersal coastal organisms in the face of future climate change.",Historical Environment Is Reflected in Modern Population Genetics and Biogeography of an Island Endemic Lizard (Xantusia riversiana reticulata),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1779127,"Coral reefs-the 'rainforests of the sea,' are an endangered ecosystem and are disappearing at an alarming rate due to numerous threats, including over-fishing, global warming and pollution, particularly oil spills. The sewage pollution is an increasing problem in tropical marine environment. These habitats hosting a rich diversity of marine organisms and are also potential sources of life-saving medicines and food for humans. The present investigation deals with the ecological status of coral reefs with reference to impact of disposal of domestic sewage from nearby human settlements and waste diesel and engine oil approximately from 700 fishing boats anchored in the lagoon existing between fringing reefs of Palk Bay and mainland at Mandapam. A narrow navigational channel separates the Palk Bay Reefs into two sectors viz., western (Station-I) and eastern sector (Station-II) The reef is situated about 200 to 600 meters away from the shore at different places. In the lagoon area of eastern sector (Station-II) of the Palk Bay waste diesel, engine oil, the terrestrial runoff of nutrients and domestic sewage cause severe pollution in the area and also pose various ecological problems. Whereas, the lagoon in the western sector (Station-I) of the reef is free from such disturbances except a few plank boats involved in the fishing activities and seaweed collection. Line Intercept Transect (LIT) method was used to assess the live coral covers of the selected sites. The biophysical forms coming under 20m transects laid on the reef roughly parallel to the shore were recorded using snorkeling and skin diving techniques were used to observe shallow waters up to 3m, and beyond this depth SCUBA diving, technique was used. A comparative study of the impact of pollutants on the vitality and diversity of coral reefs in Station - I and Station - II was carried out. The average percentage of Live Coral Cover (LCC) (Station I (50%) & Station II (40%), Coral Infected with Disease (CID) (Station I (8.3%) & Station-II (13.3%) and the Filamentous and Turf Algae (FTA) (Station -I- [13.3%] & Station-II - [16.6%]) were recorded. Mostly the values recorded in Station II were higher when compared to Station-I. This is because of the impact of pollutants disposed in Station II which challenges the vitality and diversity of coral reefs of Palk Bay. The present study indicates the variation in the number of species of scleractinian corals in the Station-II when compared to data recorded in previous study reports. Anthropogenic inputs of dissolved nutrients and organic particulate matter may also depress oxygen levels. The heavy sediment loads on corals may be lethal, lesser quantities of sediment may inhibit growth of corals, cause changes in the growth forms of colonies, decrease coral cover, alter species composition of reef-building organisms, and as well as inhibit coral recruitment. Besides toxic substances may induce metabolic changes in corals, also decrease rates of growth and reproduction, or reduce viability of corals. Further research is needed on the impact of major components of sewage effluent on coral reef ecosystem. The most critical need is long-term studies of sewage impacts.","The effect of oil pollution and disposal of domestic sewage on the vitality and diversity of coral reefs of Palk Bay, Mandapam region, South-east coast of India",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+532574,"We characterised temporal trends and variability in key indicators of climate and atmospheric deposition chemistry at the twelve terrestrial UK Environmental Change Network (ECN) sites over the first two decades of ECN monitoring (1993-2012) using various statistical approaches. Mean air temperatures for the monitoring period were approximately 0.7 C higher than those modelled for 1961-1990, but there was little evidence for significant change in air temperature over either the full monthly records or within individual seasons. Some upland ECN sites, however, warmed significantly over the first decade before cooling in the second. Summers at most sites became progressively wetter, and extremes in daily rainfall increased in magnitude. Average wind speeds in winter and spring declined at the majority of sites. Directional trends in summer precipitation could be linked to an atypically prolonged negative deviation in the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. Several aspects of air quality improved markedly. Concentrations and fluxes of sulphate in precipitation declined significantly and substantially across the network, particularly during the earlier years and at the most polluted sites in the south and east. Precipitation concentrations of nitrate and ammonium, and atmospheric concentrations of nitrogen dioxide also decreased at most sites. There was less evidence for reductions in the loads of wet deposited nitrogen species, while trends in atmospheric ammonia concentration varied in direction and strength between sites. Reductions in acid deposition are likely to account for widespread gradual increases in the pH of soil water at ECN sites, representing partial recovery from acidification. Overall, therefore, ECN sites have experienced marked changes in atmospheric chemistry and weather regimes over the last two decades that might be expected to have exerted detectable effects on ecosystem structure and function. While the downward trend in acid deposition is unlikely to be reversed, it is too early to conclude whether the trend towards wetter summers simply represents a phase in a multi-decadal cycle, or is indicative of a more directional shift in climate. Conversely, the first two decades of ECN now provide a relatively stable long-term baseline with respect to air temperature, against which effects of anticipated future warming on these ecosystems should be able to be assessed robustly. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Trends and variability in weather and atmospheric deposition at UK Environmental Change Network sites (1993-2012),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+792406,"Antarctica satellite-derived sea ice extents (SIEs) showed a slight increase over the 1979-2010 period, generally attributed to a number of theories, including a combination of changes in atmosphere-and ocean-sea ice interactions. However, almost all authors agreed on the need of further studies based on a longer period of analysis. In this study, a 6 years longer time series (1979-2016) was analysed to calculate total and regional sea ice trends. Those trends were then correlated with threemain climatological variables (air temperature, pressure, and wind components). The results showed an increased positive trend of total 1979-2016 SIE (1.6 +/- 0.4% decade-1) compared to the 1979-2010 period, mostly due to the thermodynamic effect of winds. Remote factors (El Nio-Southern Oscillation and variations in equatorial Pacific and Indian oceans) also contributed to the sea ice increase by causing disturbances in the wind fields. The regional analysis confirmed the great impact of the increased westerly, katabatic and circumpolar winds, but with some differences with respect to the total trend. The increase of wind speed was stronger in the Weddell Sea and Western Pacific Ocean sectors, which corresponded to an increasing of their decadal SIE (from1.2 +/- 1.1% decade-1 to 1.7 +/- 0.8% decade-1 and from 0.5 +/- 1.5% decade-1 to 1.8 +/- 1.2% decade-1, respectively). The Bellingshausen-Amundsen seas sector showed a decrease of its sea ice loss from-5.1 +/- 1.6% decade-1 to-2.9 +/- 1.4% decade-1, due to the cooling of the air temperature in the Peninsula and the increase of winds. Contrarily, two sectors-Indian Ocean and Ross Sea-showed a reduction in their increasing trends with respect to the 1979-2010 period.","Antarctica, 1979-2016 sea ice extent: total versus regional trends, anomalies, and correlation with climatological variables",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+656183,"The Power and Water Corporation (PWC) in the Northern Territory are currently in the process of reviewing the water supply strategy for Darwin. As part of the review, the role of water restrictions in meeting PWC's Level of Service (LoS) objectives was modelled in detail. PWC and SMEC in collaboration developed a model to gain an understanding of the impact that various management actions would have on Darwin's water supply security. Recommended LoS objectives required compromises to be made between minimising risk of restrictions and maximising overall yield.The study has incorporated consideration of an interesting combination of factors including, intense wet season inflows, low dry season inflows with high evaporation, small storage size and a community with no experience of water restrictions and relatively high water usage. The study comprised three components. Firstly, a review of the level of service objectives of other Australian water agencies; secondly, facilitation of development of a set of LoS objectives for the Darwin region water supply that considered unrestricted demand reliability, restricted demand reliability, contingency storage and the development of drought or emergency response plans. Thirdly, the study facilitated a review of Power and Water's existing water restrictions policy and setting of restriction rules and triggers for the Darwin region water supply system. A Fortran code model was used to simulate up to four levels of restrictions. The modelling process simulated runoff using an 8,000 year stochastically generated set of inflows. The elements to which yield was assessed to be most sensitive were low inflow assumptions, groundwater availability, climate change and lowering trigger levels. © 2012 Engineers Australia.",Darwin region level of service objectives analysis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2348976,"Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of main meteorological factors on the mortality of urban residents and provide empirical evidence for the prevention of effects of climate changes. Design/methodology/approach Grey relational analysis (GRA) was used to analyse the interrelationships between meteorological factors and mortality among residents in Chaoyang District, Beijing, during the period between 1998 and 2008. Findings The changes of annual average mortality had a strong grey relation with temperature and relative humidity. The monthly average mortality (MAM) showed a strong grey relation with air pressure and the MAM in Summer season had a strong grey relation with air pressure, relative humidity and wind speed. Originality/value Meteorological factors including temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and wind speed are all related with mortality changes. GRA can well reveal the trend of the curve approximation between meteorological factors and mortality and can quantify the different approximation.",Grey relation between main meteorological factors and mortality,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+548014,"The height of the freezing level in the tropical atmosphere (the free air 0 degrees C isotherm) has increased across most of the region, particularly in the outer Tropics. In the tropical Andes, south of the Equator, high elevation surface temperatures and upper air data show a similar trend in temperature, of similar to 0.1 degrees C/decade over the last 50 years. Meteorological observations at 5680 m on the summit of the Quelccaya Ice Cap, the largest ice mass in the Tropics, indicate that daily maximum temperatures often exceed 0 degrees C from October-May, and rise well above freezing for much of the year around the ice cap margin at 5200 m. This is consistent with observations of a rise in the percolation facies (an indicator of surface melting) in recent decades, and other observations of marginal recession, showing that the ice cap is rapidly losing mass. Similar conditions are likely to be affecting other high elevation ice caps and glaciers in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, with important implications for water supplies in the region. Over the Tropics as a whole, freezing level height (FLH) is closely related to mean SSTs, with inter-annual variations in FLH controlled by the phase of ENSO variability. More extensive monitoring of climatic conditions at high elevations in the mountains of the Tropics is urgently needed. Citation: Bradley, R. S., F. T. Keimig, H. F. Diaz, and D. R. Hardy (2009), Recent changes in freezing level heights in the Tropics with implications for the deglacierization of high mountain regions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L17701, doi:10.1029/2009GL037712.",Recent changes in freezing level heights in the Tropics with implications for the deglacierization of high mountain regions,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+3537279,"Heat treatment has the greatest impact on the microstructure and properties, as well as the residual stresses and dimensional control of steel. Most of the problems that occur in heat-treated parts are attributed to improper heat-treatment practices, deficiency in the used grade of steel, poor part design or part defects. Inappropriate heat-treatment practices include overheating, burning, non-uniform heating, incorrectly selected austenitizing temperature and improper quenching. The formation of cracks during and after the quenching of austenitized steels is a major problem. As the carbon content of steel increases, the tendency to crack increases too. The tendency for quench cracking is also increased with higher austenitizing temperatures. The aims of the research were to determine the cause of the cracks in high-carbon tool steel and to analyze the influence of the austenitizing temperature on the occurrence and propagation of quenching cracks. The results show that the main cause of quenching cracks is a too high austenitizing temperature caused by poor temperature control. A temperature that is too high leads to excessive austenite grain growth, distinctive grain boundaries with coarser martensite and the presence of retained austenite. On the other hand, the best properties and the absence of quenching cracks occur when C85S steel is quenched from a temperature below the A(cm) temperature.",The occurrence of quenching cracks in high-carbon tool steel depending on the austenitizing temperature,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+855572,"Context Changes in land use have disruptive effects on community structure, causing many species to disappear, though a few thrive and become pests. Objectives To gain understanding on how anthropogenic activity changes spatial patterns of native species diversity while favoring pests, we conducted rapid biodiversity assessments of dacine fruit flies across eight regions in Southeast Asia. Methods Male lure traps were maintained for 2 days along transects at 233 sites, in forest, agricultural and urban environments. Results A total of 8393 individuals were collected, belonging to 57 described and 4 new or unidentified species. The majority (78 %) of individuals belonged to 14 pest species, dominated by Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel). The 57 species represent 38 % of those recorded from the region, indicating effective sampling. Individual flies were collected in highest numbers in urban and agricultural sites, but species diversity was low. Forest samples yielded fewer specimens but highest species diversity, suggesting a shift in community structure after disturbance, benefiting a few pest species at the expense of the broader community, even in the same genus and ecological guild. Conclusions Dacine fruit flies may be useful in assessing habitat quality and bait systems permit the execution of rapid biodiversity and multi-species conservation assessments. Our results apply to broader patterns concerning biodiversity loss and the emergence of pest species under increasingly intensive land use gradients, and demonstrate the remarkable loss of biodiversity over very narrow distances as forest is converted into agricultural use, hence the importance in maintaining a mosaic of native habitats.",Declines in biodiversity and the abundance of pest species across land use gradients in Southeast Asia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+98654,"We investigated the relationship between a 2000-year history of nomadic migration and climate change in historical China. By using updated data and statistical methods, the study solved several unanswered questions from past research about the relationship between climate change and the nomadic migration, especially over the long term and on a large spatial scale. The study used correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis to quantitatively verify the following causal pathway: climate change -> nomadic migration -> conflicts between pastoralists and agriculturalists. In the long term, precipitation was a statistically more influential factor on nomadic migration than temperature in historical China. How climate change affects the migration of nomadic minorities in the long term is theoretically explained based on the Push-Pull model as well as statistical evidence.",Long-term relationship between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3316337,"The ecology and environmental conditions of a habitat have profound influences on mosquito population abundance. As a result, mosquito species vary in their associations with particular habitat types, yet long-term studies showing how mosquito populations shift in a changing ecological landscape are lacking. To better understand how land use changes influence mosquito populations, we examined mosquito surveillance data over a thirty-four-year period for two contrasting sites in central Iowa. One site displayed increasing levels of urbanization over time and a dramatic decline in Culex pipiens group (an informal grouping of Culex restuans, Culex pipiens, and Culex salinarius, referred to as CPG), the primary vectors of West Nile virus in central Iowa. Similar effects were also shown for other mosquito vector populations, yet the abundance of Aedes vexans remained constant during the study period. This is in contrast to a second site, which reflected an established urban landscape. At this location, there were no significant changes in land use and CPG populations remained constant. Climate data (temperature, total precipitation) were compiled for each location to see if these changes could account for altered population dynamics, but neither significantly influence CPG abundance at the respective site locations. Taken together, our data suggest that increased landscape development can have negative impacts on Culex vector populations, and we argue that long-term surveillance paired with satellite imagery analysis are useful methods for measuring the impacts of rapid human development on mosquito vector communities. As a result, we believe that land use changes can have important implications for mosquito management practices, population modeling, and disease transmission dynamics.",Satellite Imaging and Long-Term Mosquito Surveillance Implicate the Influence of Rapid Urbanization on Culex Vector Populations,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+245869,"Global warming is expected to affect both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, though projections of the response of these events to climate warming remain highly uncertain. The range of changes reported in the climate modelling literature is very large, sometimes leading to contradictory results for a given extreme weather event. Much of this uncertainty stems from the incomplete understanding of the physics of extreme weather processes, the lack of representation of mesoscale processes in coarse-resolution climate models, and the effect of natural climate variability at multi-decadal time scales. However, some of the spread in results originates simply from the variety of scenarios for future climate change used to drive climate model simulations, which hampers the ability to make generalizations about predicted changes in extreme weather events. In this study, we present a meta-analysis of the literature on projected future extreme weather events in order to quantify expected changes in weather extremes as a function of a common metric of global mean temperature increases. We find that many extreme weather events are likely to be significantly affected by global warming. In particular, our analysis indicates that the overall frequency of global tropical cyclones could decrease with global warming but that the intensity of these storms, as well as the frequency of the most intense cyclones could increase, particularly in the northwestern Pacific basin. We also found increases in the intensity of South Asian monsoonal rainfall, the frequency of global heavy precipitation events, the number of North American severe thunderstorm days, North American drought conditions, and European heatwaves, with rising global mean temperatures. In addition, the periodicity of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation may decrease, which could, in itself, influence extreme weather frequency in many areas of the climate system.",Quantifying Changes in Extreme Weather Events in Response to Warmer Global Temperature,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3252043,"After hatching, juveniles of most sea turtle species undertake long migrations across ocean basins and remain in oceanic habitats for several years. Assessing population abundance and demographic parameters during this oceanic stage is challenging. Two long-recognized deficiencies in population assessment are (i) reliance on trends in numbers of nests or reproductive females at nesting beaches and (ii) ignorance of factors regulating recruitment to the early oceanic stage. To address these critical gaps, we examined 15 years of standardized loggerhead sighting data collected opportunistically by fisheries observers in the Azores archipelago. From 2001 to 2015, 429 loggerheads were sighted during 67,922 km of survey effort. We used a model-based approach to evaluate the influence of environmental factors and present the first estimates of relative abundance of oceanic-stage juvenile sea turtles. During this period, relative abundance of loggerheads in the Azores tracked annual nest abundance at source rookeries in Florida when adjusted for a 3-year lag. This concurrence of abundance patterns indicates that recruitment to the oceanic stage is more dependent on nest abundance at source rookeries than on stochastic processes derived from short term climatic variability, as previously believed.",Relative abundance of oceanic juvenile loggerhead sea turtles in relation to nest production at source rookeries: implications for recruitment dynamics,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1413053,"A simple model using once-daily upper-air values in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis database estimates seasonal mass balance at two glaciers in southern Alaska, one in western Canada, and one in Washington substantially better than any of several seasonally averaged, large-scale climate indices commonly used. Whereas sea level pressure and sea surface temperature in the Pacific exert a strong influence on the climate in the region, temperature and moisture flux at 850 mb have a more direct effect on mass balance processes-accumulation and ablation-because their temporal variability better matches that of those processes. The 40-yr record of 850-mb temperature shows winter warming after 1976 and summer warming after 1988 throughout the region; mass balance records reflect the summer warming at all four glaciers but winter warming only at the southern two. The only pronounced long-term change in the moisture regime is a decrease of precipitation in the south and an increase in the north. Interannual variations in the location of the moisture flux, however, apparently account for the strong negative correlation between the Alaska glaciers and the other two.",Climate and glacier variability in western North America,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+229827,"The gendered dimensions of climate change have received increasing interest in climate change adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability (ARV) research. Yet concerns have been expressed that engagement with 'gender' in this work has been tokenistic. In this context, we ask: how is climate change ARV research engaging with gender? To answer this question, we develop an assessment framework capturing key attributes of engagement and use it to evaluate peer reviewed ARV articles with a focus on gender published since 2006 (n = 123). Results indicate an increase in ARV studies with a gender focus over this period, with the level of gender engagement also increasing. There are a relatively equal numbers of studies categorized as engaging gender at a high, medium, and low level, with studies from Sub-Saharan Africa consistently exhibiting high levels of gender engagement. Gender focused ARV has a strong focus on examining female experiences, with few studies explicitly focusing on men, and no work accounting for those identifying outside the gender binary.","How is adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability research engaging with gender?",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1461495,"In this work, the authors analyze the origin of the extreme floods in the Peruvian Amazonas River during the 1970-2012 period, focusing on the recent April 2012 flooding (55 400 m(3) s(-1)). Several hydrological variables, such as rainfall, terrestrial water storage, and discharge, point out that the unprecedented 2012 flood is mainly related to an early and abundant wet season over the north of the basin. Thus, the peak of the Maranon River, the northern contributor of the Amazonas, occurred sooner than usual (in April instead of May), coinciding with the peak of the Ucayali River, the southern contributor. This concomitance caused a dramatic flood downstream in the Peruvian Amazonas. These results are compared to the amplitude and timing of the three most severe extreme floods (1970-2011). The analysis of the climatic features related to the most important floods (1986, 1993, 1999, and 2012) suggests that they are characterized by a La Nina event, which originates a geopotential height wave train near the ground, with positive anomalies over the subtropical South and North Pacific and Atlantic and over southeastern South America. These patterns contribute to 1) the origin of an abundant humidity transport flux from the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea toward the northwestern Amazon and 2) the maintenance of the monsoon flux over this region. They both favor a strong convergence of humidity in the northern Amazonas basin. Finally, the authors suggest that the intensity of floods is more likely related to an early La Nina event (as observed during the 2011/12 season), early rainfall, and simultaneous peaks of both tributaries of the Amazonas River.",The Major Floods in the Amazonas River and Tributaries (Western Amazon Basin) during the 1970-2012 Period: A Focus on the 2012 Flood,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+273188,"Smallholder farmers continuously confront multiple social and environmental stressors that necessitate changes in livelihood strategies to prevent damages and take advantage of new opportunities, or adaptation. Vulnerability, meaning susceptibility to harm, is attributable to social determinants that limit access to assets, leading to greater exposure and sensitivity to stressors and a limited capacity to adapt. Stressors and adaptation are intertwined because stressors deplete resources available for adaptation, while adaptation may erode resources available to respond to future stressors. We present empirical evidence demonstrating the interactions of multiple stressors and adaptations over time through a case study of indigenous farmers in highland Bolivia. We examine how farmers perceive the stress on their livelihoods, their strategies for adapting to these threats, and the influence of past adaptation and exposure on vulnerability under increasing climatic change. We find that vulnerability changes over time as multiple stressors, such as land scarcity and delayed seasonal rainfall, compound, simultaneously reducing access and demanding the expenditure of household assets for adaptation, including natural capital (water and land), human capital (including labor), and financial, physical, and social capital. To reduce vulnerability over time, constraints on access to key resources must be addressed, allowing households the flexibility to reduce their exposure and improve their adaptive capacity to the multiple stressors they confront. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Accessing adaptation: Multiple stressors on livelihoods in the Bolivian highlands under a changing climate,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1059362,"Daily pan evaporation has been shown to be an important variable in making crop management decisions and in modeling crop response to weather conditions. However daily pan evaporation is difficult to measure accurately and consistently over longer time periods. The objective of this research was to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models to estimate daily pan evaporation using measured weather variables as inputs. Weather data from Pome, Plains, and Watkinsville, Georgia, consisting of 2044 daily records from 1992 to 1996 were used to develop the models of daily pan evaporation. Additional weather data from these locations, which included 720 daily records from 1997 and 1998, sewed as an independent evaluation data set for the models. The measured variables included daily observations of rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed. Daily pan evaporation was also estimated using multiple linear regression and the Priestley-Taylor method and was compared to the results of the ANN models. The ANN model of daily pan evaporation with all available variables as inputs was the most accurate model delivering an r(2) of 0.717 and a root mean square error of 1.11 mm for the independent evaluation data set. ANN models were developed with some of the observed variables eliminated to correspond to different levels of data collection as well as for minimal data sets. The accuracy of the models was reduced considerably when variables were eliminated to correspond with National Weather Service cooperative weather stations. Pan evaporation estimated with ANN models was slightly more accurate than pan evaporation estimated with a multiple linear regression model or the Priestley-Taylor equation. Future efforts will focus on the inclusion of the ANN model as part of the quality control procedure to estimate missing pan evaporation data of the automated weather station network.",Estimating daily pan evaporation with artificial neural networks,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+620077,"Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.",Challenges of climate change: An Arctic perspective,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+554690,"Understanding how vegetation growth responds to climate change is a critical requirement for projecting future ecosystem dynamics. Parts of North America (NA) have experienced a spring cooling trend over the last three decades, but little is known about the response of vegetation growth to this change. Using observed climate data and satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2006, we investigated changes in spring (April-May) temperature trends and their impact on vegetation growth in NA. A piecewise linear regression approach shows that the trend in spring temperature is not continuous through the 25-year period. In the northwestern region of NA, spring temperature increased until the late 1980s or early 1990s, and stalled or decreased afterwards. In response, a spring vegetation greening trend, which was evident in this region during the 1980s, stalled or reversed recently. Conversely, an opposite phenomenon occurred in the northeastern region of NA due to different spring temperature trends. Additionally, the trends of summer vegetation growth vary between the periods before and after the turning point (TP) of spring temperature trends. This change cannot be fully explained by summer drought stress change alone and is partly explained by changes in the trends of spring temperature as well as those of summer temperature. As reported in previous studies, summer vegetation browning trends have occurred in the northwestern region of NA since the early 1990s, which is consistent with the spring and summer cooling trends in this region during this period.",Spring temperature change and its implication in the change of vegetation growth in North America from 1982 to 2006,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+697039,"The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming(1-4). Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil(5,6), the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 +/- 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 +/- 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 +/- 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period(7,8). Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.",Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3945155,"We have attempted to quantify the degree of inflammation associated with oral lesions through the use of infrared thermography, since the increased vascularity associated with inflamed tissue might result in measurable increases in surface temperature. This would provide a better measure of the relief of pain and inflammation associated with cancer chemotherapy mucositis by an antiinflammatory drug such as benzydamine hydrochloride than the subjective pain scales now employed. One subject with normal oral mucosa and three subjects with oral lesions of varying aetiology were studied with a Hughes Series 4000 PROBEYE thermal video system utilizing an infrared imager and microprocessor. A 35-mm camera was used to obtain a colour photograph of each subject. Multiple thermograms were made in a temperature range of 30.0 degrees C to 34.2 degrees C at a sensitivity of 0.2 degrees C. Photographs were taken on different occasions to determine whether the temperature readings could be duplicated and to test the accuracy of each reading. The normal surface temperature of the control subject's mucosa was found to be significantly cooler than clinical areas of inflammation in patients with lesions induced by chemotherapy. The temperature of the areas of stomatitis was remarkably consistent (Subject C means 33.7 degrees C; Subject D means 33.9 degrees C). Interestingly, the necrotic center of a traumatic ulcer inhibited measurement of an underlying inflamed base and was thus equivalent in temperature to the normal control (Normal means 31.9 degrees C; Subject B necrotic lesion means 31.7 degrees C). These results suggest that infrared thermography may represent a means to assess quantitatively the degree of mucosal inflammation. Additional studies are in progress.",The use of infrared thermography in the evaluation of oral lesions.,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+560378,"There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.",Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3977439,"Ice storms are a type of extreme winter weather event common to north temperate and boreal forests worldwide. Recent climate modelling studies suggest that these storms may become more frequent and severe under a changing climate. Compared to other types of storm events, relatively little is known about the direct and indirect impacts of these storms on forests, as naturally occurring ice storms are inherently difficult to study. Here we describe a novel experimental approach used to create a suite of ice storms in a mature hardwood forest in New Hampshire, USA. The experiment included five ice storm intensities (0, 6.4, 12.7 and 19.1 mm radial ice accretion) applied in a single year, and one ice storm intensity (12.7 mm) applied in two consecutive years. Results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach for creating experimental ice storms, quantify the increase in fine and coarse woody debris mass and nutrients transferred from the forest canopy to the soil under the different icing conditions, and show an increase in the damage to the forest canopy with increasing icing that evolves over time. In this forest, little damage occurred below 6.4 mm radial ice accretion, moderate damage occurred with up to 12.7 mm of accretion, and significant branch breakage and canopy damage occurred with 19.1 mm of ice. The icing in consecutive years demonstrated an interactive effect of ice storm frequency and severity such that some branches damaged in the first year of icing appeared to remain in the canopy and then fall to the ground in the second year of icing. These results have implications for National Weather Service ice storm warning levels, as they provide a quantitative assessment of ice-load related inputs of forest debris that will be useful to municipalities creating response plans for current and future ice storms. Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.",Experimental approach and initial forest response to a simulated ice storm experiment in a northern hardwood forest,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+485290,"Changes in temperature and precipitation have a range of impacts, including change of glacier extent, extent and duration of snow cover, and distribution and thermal properties of permafrost. Similarly, it is likely that climatic changes affect frequency and magnitude of mass movements, such as shallow landslides, debris flows, rock slope failures, or ice avalanches. However, so far changes in mass-movement activity can hardly be detected in observational records. In this progress report we document the role of climate variability and change on mass-movement processes in mountains through the description and analysis of selected, recent mass movements where effects of global warming and the occurrence of heavy precipitation are thought to have contributed to, or triggered, events. In addition, we assess possible effects of future climatic changes on the incidence of mass-movement processes. The report concentrates on high-mountain systems, including processes such as glacier downwasting and the formation of new ice-marginal lakes, glacier debuttressing and the occurrence of rock slope instability, temperature increase and permafrost degradation, as well as on changing sediment reservoirs and sediment supply, with a clear focus on studies from the European Alps.",Effects of climate change on mass movements in mountain environments,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+245151,"Aim Models project that climate warming will cause the tree line to move to higher elevations in alpine areas and more northerly latitudes in Arctic environments. We aimed to document changes or stability of the tree line in a sub-Arctic model area at different temporal and spatial scales, and particularly to clarify the ambiguity that currently exists about tree line dynamics and their causes. Location The study was conducted in the Tornetrask area in northern Sweden where climate warmed by 2.5 degrees C between 1913 and 2006. Mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) sets the alpine tree line. Methods We used repeat photography, dendrochronological analysis, field observations along elevational transects and historical documents to study tree line dynamics. Results Since 1912, only four out of eight tree line sites had advanced: on average the tree line had shifted 24 m upslope (+0.2 m year-1 assuming linear shifts). Maximum tree line advance was +145 m (+1.5 m year-1 in elevation and +2.7 m year-1 in actual distance), whereas maximum retreat was 120 m downslope. Counter-intuitively, tree line advance was most pronounced during the cooler late 1960s and 1970s. Tree establishment and tree line advance were significantly correlated with periods of low reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) population numbers. A decreased anthropozoogenic impact since the early 20th century was found to be the main factor shaping the current tree line ecotone and its dynamics. In addition, episodic disturbances by moth outbreaks and geomorphological processes resulted in descent and long-term stability of the tree line position, respectively. Main conclusions In contrast to what is generally stated in the literature, this study shows that in a period of climate warming, disturbance may not only determine when tree line advance will occur but if tree line advance will occur at all. In the case of non-climatic climax tree lines, such as those in our study area, both climate-driven model projections of future tree line positions and the use of the tree line position for bioclimatic monitoring should be used with caution.",A century of tree line changes in sub-Arctic Sweden shows local and regional variability and only a minor influence of 20th century climate warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+59785,"While poleward species migration in response to recent climatic warming is widely documented, few studies have examined entire range responses of broadly distributed sessile organisms, including changes on both the trailing (equatorward) and the leading (poleward) range edges. From a detailed population census throughout the entire geographical range of Aloe dichotoma Masson, a long-lived Namib Desert tree, together with data from repeat photographs, we present strong evidence that a developing range shift in this species is a 'fingerprint' of anthropogenic climate change. This is explained at a high level of statistical significance by population level impacts of observed regional warming and resulting water balance constraints. Generalized linear models suggest that greater mortalities and population declines in equatorward populations are virtually certainly the result, due to anthropogenic climate change, of the progressive exceedance of critical climate thresholds that are relatively closer to the species' tolerance limits in equatorward sites. Equatorward population declines are also broadly consistent with bioclimatically modelled projections under anticipated anthropogenic climate change but, as yet, there is no evidence of poleward range expansion into the area predicted to become suitable in future, despite good evidence for positive population growth trends in poleward populations. This study is among the first to show a marked lag between trailing edge population extinction and leading edge range expansion in a species experiencing anthropogenic climate change impacts, a pattern likely to apply to most sessile and poorly dispersed organisms. This provides support for conservative assumptions of species' migration rates when modelling climate change impacts for such species. Aloe dichotoma's response to climate change suggests that desert ecosystems may be more sensitive to climate change than previously suspected.",A changing climate is eroding the geographical range of the Namib Desert tree Aloe through population declines and dispersal lags,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+115462,"Climate variability and change play a vital role in the susceptible system of the Satluj River basin located in western Himalaya. The Satluj River is providing precious water resources for the hydropower generation and intense agriculture in the basin. The present study provides insight into the trends in snowfall, snow cover area, rainfall and temperature (T (min) and T (max)) with subsequent effect on river discharge. Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were used to evaluate annual, seasonal and monthly trends. The snowfall has decreased over the studied period of 33 years with the mean snowfall exhibiting decreasing trends annually, seasonally as well as monthly. Out of the total data, 14 stations revealed negative trends with significant trends at 8 stations. Highest number of stations with negative trends occurred during post-monsoon season. The decreasing snowfall has resulted in decrease in snow cover area in the basin. On the other hand, the annual and seasonal rainfall has increased significantly except for winter season. Station-wise, rainfall revealed mixed nature of trends with feeble increasing trends > 1600 m asl elevation. Consequently, the temperature has increased with dominantly significant trends in T (min). The T (min) showed significant rising trends at most of the stations located > 1000 m asl elevation and winter season. The temperature particularly T (min) may be a dominant factor in controlling the trends in snowfall, snow cover area and rainfall trends. Subsequently, the annual discharge has decreased with significant decreasing trends during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Moreover, during regression analysis, it was observed that with increase in temperature, snowfall has decreased and rainfall increased. The negative correlation between snowfall and rainfall also substantiated the fact that the snowfall has decreased with increase in rainfall. In addition, the trend analysis also suggested the coincidence of decline in snowfall and increase in rainfall, reflecting the shifting of precipitation from solid to liquid in the basin. Thus, a decrement in snowfall along with moderate increment in rainfall and significant rise in temperature particularly T (min) was observed in the basin. Nevertheless, a clear link exists between the trends in climatic parameters and river discharge in the basin.","Analysis of current trends in climatic parameters and its effect on discharge of Satluj River basin, western Himalaya",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+700704,"Changes in temperature, oxygen content and other ocean biogeochemical properties directly affect the ecophysiology of marine water-breathing organisms(1-3). Previous studies suggest that the most prominent biological responses are changes in distribution(4-6), phenology(7,8) and productivity(9). Both theory and empirical observations also support the hypothesis that warming and reduced oxygen will reduce body size of marine fishes(10-12). However, the extent to which such changes would exacerbate the impacts of climate and ocean changes on global marine ecosystems remains unexplored. Here, we employ a model to examine the integrated biological responses of over 600 species of marine fishes due to changes in distribution, abundance and body size. The model has an explicit representation of ecophysiology, dispersal, distribution, and population dynamics(3). We show that assemblage-averaged maximum body weight is expected to shrink by 14-24% globally from 2000 to 2050 under a high-emission scenario. About half of this shrinkage is due to change in distribution and abundance, the remainder to changes in physiology. The tropical and intermediate latitudinal areas will be heavily impacted, with an average reduction of more than 20%. Our results provide a new dimension to understanding the integrated impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.",Shrinking of fishes exacerbates impacts of global ocean changes on marine ecosystems,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+789727,"Improved understanding of climate-growth relationships of multiple species is fundamental to understanding and predicting the response of forest growth to future climate change. Forests are mainly composed of conifers in Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, but variations of growth response to climate conditions among the species are not well understood. To detect the growth response of multiple species to climate change, we developed residual chronologies of four major conifers, i.e., George's fir (Abies georgei Orr), Likiang spruce (Picea likiangensis (Franch.) E.Pritz.), Gaoshan pine (Pinus densata Mast.) and Chinese larch (Larix potaninii Batalin) at the upper distributional limits in Shika Snow Mountain. Using the dendroclimatology method, we analyzed correlations between the residual chronologies and climate variables. The results showed that conifer radial growth was influenced by both temperature and precipitation in Shika Snow Mountain. Previous November temperature, previous July temperature, and current May precipitation were the common climatic factors that had consistent influences on radial growth of the four species. Temperature in the previous post-growing season (September-October) and moisture conditions in the current growing season (June-August) were the common climatic factors that had divergent impacts on the radial growth of the four species. Based on the predictions of climate models and our understanding of the growth response of four species to climate variables, we may understand the growth response to climate change at the species level. It is difficult to predict future forest growth in the study area, since future climate change might cause both increases and decreases for the four species and indirect effects of climate change on forests should be considered.","Variations of Climate-Growth Response of Major Conifers at Upper Distributional Limits in Shika Snow Mountain, Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+575561,"Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe.",Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1448655,"The long-term impact of rapid urbanization on air temperature (T-a), relative humidity (RH), vapor pressure (VP) and human thermal comfort in the Cairo governorate of Egypt was analyzed. Land use change (LUC) between 1973 and 2017 were derived from Landsat satellite data. Next, non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to T-a, RH and VP over 1950-2017 to estimate the impacts of urbanization on urban climate. Three historical thermal comfort indices: temperature humidity index (THI), effective temperature index (ETI) and relative strain index (RSI) were estimated from climate data collected between 1950 and 2017 to assess the impact of urbanization on human thermal comfort. The results reveal substantial LUC, rapid increasing impervious surface areas in low-lying areas of Cairo at 75.2 km(2)/decade since the 1990s. Rapid urbanization had resulted in a statistically significant change point in T-a after 1995 with a warming trend of 0.19 degrees C/decade, a negative trend in RH of 0.55%/decade and a rising trend in VP of 0.24 hPa/decade. Severe heat stress levels emerged and persisted every July September since 1994. THI, ETI, and RSI show statistically significant change points at 1994 and a rising trend of 0.33 degrees C/decade, 0.29 degrees C/decade, and 0.06/decade, respectively. The highest thermal discomfort risk was found in urban areas of the old Cairo, but the risk is marginally smaller at new cities where there are vegetation covers. This study clearly demonstrates the impacts of rapid urbanization on the urban climate of hot-arid environment.",Long-term impact of rapid urbanization on urban climate and human thermal comfort in hot-arid environment,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+61116,"Understanding the interplay between climate and land-use dynamics is a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change. In this study, we analyse satellite-derived monthly and annual time series of rainfall, fires and deforestation to explicitly quantify the seasonal patterns and relationships between these three variables, with a particular focus on the Amazonian drought of 2005. Our results demonstrate a marked seasonality with one peak per year for all variables analysed, except deforestation. For the annual cycle, we found correlations above 90% with a time lag between variables. Deforestation and fires reach the highest values three and six months, respectively, after the peak of the rainy season. The cumulative number of hot pixels was linearly related to the size of the area deforested annually from 1998 to 2004 (r(2)=0.84, p=0.004). During the 2005 drought, the number of hot pixels increased 43% in relation to the expected value for a similar deforested area (approx. 19 000 km(2)). We demonstrated that anthropogenic forcing, such as land-use change, is decisive in determining the seasonality and annual patterns of fire occurrence. Moreover, droughts can significantly increase the number of fires in the region even with decreased deforestation rates. We may expect that the ongoing deforestation, currently based on slash and burn procedures, and the use of fires for land management in Amazonia will intensify the impact of droughts associated with natural climate variability or human-induced climate change and, therefore, a large area of forest edge will be under increased risk of fires.","Interactions between rainfall, deforestation and fires during recent years in the Brazilian Amazonia",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+363160,"The present study evaluated the effects of climate variability on maize (Zea mays L.) yield in Sri Lanka at different spatial scales. Biophysical data from the Department of Agriculture (DOA) in Sri Lanka for six major maize-growing districts (Ampara, Anuradhapura, Badulla, Hambantota, Moneragala, and Kurunegala) from 1990 to 2010 were analyzed. Simple linear regression models were fitted to observed climate data and detrended maize yield to identify significant correlations. The correlation between first differences of maize yield and climate (r) was further investigated at 0.50 degrees grid scale using interpolated climate data. After 2003, significantly positive (p < 0.01) yield trends varied from 154 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) to 360 kg ha(-1) yr(-1). The correlations between maize yield and climate reported that five out of six districts were significant at 10% level. Rainfall had a consistent significant (p < 0.10) positive impact on maize yield in Anuradhapura, Hambantota, and Moneragala, where seasonal total rainfall together with high temperature (""hot-dry"") are the key limitations. Further, the seasonal mean temperature had a negative impact on maize yield in Moneragala (""hot-dry""), the only district that showed high temperatures. Badulla district (""cold-dry"") reported a significant (r = 0.38) positive correlation with mean seasonal temperature, indicating higher potential toward increasing temperatures. Each 1 degrees C rise in seasonal mean temperature reduced maize yield by about 5% from 1990 to 2010. Overall, there was a reasonable correlation between district maize yield and seasonal climate in most of the districts within the maize belt of Sri Lanka.",Observed Relationships between Maize Yield and Climate in Sri Lanka,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+313874,"Flow in the major wadis of southwestern Morocco is ephemeral to quasi perennial. Given their mountainous surroundings, this pattern of behaviour does not strictly obey the expected rationale dictated by latitudinal climatic gradients. Except in the case of obvious human impacts, the fluvial system depends above all on the spatial and seasonal irregularity of rainfall, on catchment location, and on the configuration and lithology of the catchment slopes. These controlling factors confer considerable instability to the positions of proximal, median and distal zones of the fluvial systems. The sedimentary response is characterised by the construction of inner fans by some important tributaries and the widening of the braided channel reach, the variety of calcareous accumulations, the relationship with groundwater levels, and the relation with the aeolian systems. The present-day geomorphic system is dominated by vertical channel incision, except for the construction of some inner fans. Evidence for three main phases of geomorphic change are apparent in the late Pleistocene and Holocene deposits: aggradational phases of fine distal silts between ca. 50 and 30 ka and during the Holocene around 5 ka; aggradational phases of predominantly colluvial deposits before 50 ka, around 45 ka, and mainly between 30 and 17 ka;and phases of linear incision mostly during the early and late Holocene. The distal accumulation phases resulted in a metamorphosis of the median zones as the fluvial system, after repeated phases of slackwater flood deposits, evolded temporarily into palustrine systems. The entire aridfluvial system was active during the phases of colluvial accumulation, with severe incision occurring in the proximal zones and deposition occurring in the middle and distal zones. The Holocene phases of incision testify to a decrease in the sediment load:water discharge ratio mostly in the middle and distal zones, in response to a complex conjunction of destabilizing causes involving eustatic and climatic change as well as human influences.",Fluvial systems of southwestern Morocco and their evolution since the Late Pleistocene,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2328745,"Climate change has pushed the natural limits of our environment, creating extreme weather events that are more frequent and more intense in certain locations around the globe. There is evidence of increasing trends in temperature extremes in most countries of South Asia, while in a few regions, temperature extremes have been decreasing. Heatwaves have intensified, which has contributed to accelerating drought and extreme flood events in most South Asian countries. Overall changes in rainfall and temperature have led to alterations in water availability in this region. With few exceptions, the general phenomenon in most South Asian countries is that rainfall intensity has increased, but with a reduced number of wet days. Studies that associate rainfall and temperature in the region of South Asia are scarce and rainfall extremes have been studied more extensively than temperature extremes. In fact, temperature trends are spatially less coherent than rainfall trends in most south Asian countries. It is more likely correlated for the teleconnection and South Asian climate for influencing the temperature and rainfall pattern, rather than any other factors. When it comes to trend estimations, statistical slope detection metrics, such as simple linear regression, have been commonly used to detect and quantify mean trends for countries in the regions of South Asia. However, application lacks in usage of robust nonparametric statistical tests to quantify temperature and rainfall extremes in many countries of South Asia. Statistical downscaling is recommended for better prediction accuracy as well as to find spatial coherence in trends.",South Asian perspective on temperature and rainfall extremes: A review,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+308176,"Nonstationarity in variables describing water quantity and water quality characteristics is reviewed, and an attempt to interpret nonstationary behavior is made with particular reference to the Central European region. Nonstationarity in water-related variables results from several nonclimatic and climatic factors. Albeit evidence of climate change in Central Europe is clear, anthropogenic nonclimatic change, such as land-use or land-cover changes, water engineering measures, and in-catchment water management play important roles. Systemic socioeconomic and political changes are the main factors responsible for the observed change in water quality in the region. The observed climate change in the Central European region has not been dramatic enough to persuade the water management community that changes of standards, criteria, and evaluation procedures should be made. Projections for the future largely differ between models and scenarios, hence information obtained from climate models is found too vague to be used. However, the water management community shows interest in climate change observations, projections, and impact assessments. Numerous hydrological research projects to tackle nonstationarity have been undertaken in the region. Also important acts of legislation, such as the European Union's Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive can be regarded in the context of nonstationarity of water-related variables.",Nonstationarity in Water Resources - Central European Perspective,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2089940,"Recurrence times for extreme drought events in the African Sahel are estimated using a classical peaks-over-threshold model. Results, which are computed for both mean seasonal rainfall and fractional area in drought, suggest that the distribution of dry extremes after about 1970 is statistically distinct from that of preceding years. This finding throws into relief the critical role played by attribution of causes, and the necessity of improving our understanding of the physical processes driving precipitation variability in the Sahel. Citation: Greene, A. M., A. Giannini, and S. E. Zebiak ( 2009), Drought return times in the Sahel: A question of attribution, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12701, doi: 10.1029/2009GL038868.",Drought return times in the Sahel: A question of attribution,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1306146,"Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (similar to 60,000 km(2)) using the Landsat archive (1999-2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected.",Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+131596,"Many migratory songbirds spend their non-breeding season in tropical humid forests, where climate change is predicted to increase the severity and frequency of droughts and decrease rainfall. For conservation of these songbirds, it is critical to understand how resources during the non-breeding season are affected by seasonal patterns of drying, and thereby predict potential long-term effects of climate change. We studied habitat quality for a declining tropical forest-dwelling songbird, the wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and tested the hypothesis that habitat moisture and arthropod abundance are drivers of body condition during the overwintering period. We examined habitat moisture, abundance of arthropods and fruit, and condition of individual birds (n = 418) in three habitat types-mature forest, mature forest with increased presence of human activity, and riparian scrub-from October to April. We found a strong pattern of habitat drying from October (wet season) to March (prior to spring migration) in all habitats, with concurrent declines in arthropod and fruit abundance. Body condition of birds also declined (estimated similar to 5 % decline over the wintering period), with no significant difference by habitat. Relatively poor condition (low body condition index, low fat and pectoral muscles scores) was equally apparent in all habitat types in March. Climate change is predicted to increase the severity of dry seasons in Central America, and our results suggest that this could negatively affect the condition of individual wood thrushes.",Seasonal change in tropical habitat quality and body condition for a declining migratory songbird,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+178996,"The timing of phenological events is highly responsive to global environmental change, and shifts in a phenological phase can affect terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture and economics. We analyzed changes in phenology for the spring season in China that occurred between the 1960's and the 2000's using four methods: species-level observations, meta-analysis, satellite measurements and phenology modeling. Previous analyses have rarely been reported due to sparse observations. Our results suggest that spring in China has started on average 2.88 days earlier per decade in response to spring warming by -4.93 days per degree Celsius over the last three decades. The shift towards an earlier start of spring was faster in two forest biomes (spring started on average 3.90 days earlier per decade) than in three grassland biomes (spring started on average 0.95 day earlier per decade). This difference was probably due to increased precipitation impacts in the grassland biomes. Interannual variations in the start of spring were most likely attributed to annual fluctuations in spring temperature (similar to 40%) and in large-scale circulation anomalies (similar to 20%).",Climate-associated changes in spring plant phenology in China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1332842,"Studies of shoreline progradation along low-energy vegetated shorelines have been limited, as these environments are generally experiencing erosion rather than deposition, with extreme erosion rates frequently found. This study examined yearly changes along a vegetated shoreline at Calaveras Point Marsh, South San Francisco Bay, California, using aerial photography, to determine the roles of climatic, watershed, and coastal process in driving shoreline changes. In addition, sediment accumulation was monitored on a yearly basis at 48 locations across the marsh to determine the role of geomorphic factors in promoting accumulation. Calaveras Point Marsh was found to have expanded from 49.26 +/- 5.2 to 165.7 +/- 4.7 ha between 1975 and 2005. Although the rate of marsh expansion was not positively correlated with yearly variability in precipitation, local streamflow, delta outflow, water level observations, population growth, or ENSO indices, marsh growth was greater during years of higher than average temperatures. Warmer temperatures may have promoted the recruitment and growth of Spartina foliosa, a C-4 grass known to be highly responsive to temperature. Other factors, such as the formation of a coastal barrier, a recent change in the location of the mouth of the Guadalupe River, and channel readjustment in response to diking are credited with driving the bulk of the marsh expansion. Sediment accumulation was found to be high closest to channels and to the shoreline, at low elevations and in recently vegetated marsh. Globally, the pace of sea level rise exerts the primary control on wetland development and persistence. However, at local geographic scales, factors such as tectonic events, modifications to natural sediment transport pathways or land use changes may overwhelm the effects of regional sea level rise, and allow for wetlands to develop, expand and persist despite rapid sea level rise. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Marsh expansion at Calaveras Point Marsh, South San Francisco Bay, California",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1853930,"Most rivers in the northwest China are recharged by snow- and ice-melt from the glacier-covered areas in the mountains. An obvious change in the regional climate with a 0.5 degrees C warming in annual air temperature and 10%-20% increase in precipitation has occurred in the inner land of Xinjiang, China, since the late 1970s. Variations in streamflow were analysed from two groups of glacier-covered basins in the north and south Tien Shan Mountains, the Pamirs, the Karakoram Mountains and the west Kunlun, based on hydrometeorological records for 40 years. Results indicate that the stream meltwater did not respond to climatic fluctuations in the 1980s. The streamflow in most rivers appeared to decrease slightly, and increased in one basin only with a lag of about 5-6 years. Summer discharge was delayed and slightly increased in the same period, due to the slight increase in summer precipitation and the relatively stable summer temperatures. The most sensitive response to climate fluctuation, with the biggest variability of 15%-20%, was seasonal flow in May and the annual maximum flood in smaller basins with low glacier coverage. The current climate is favourable to glacier development, due to an increase in snow accumulation and lower summer air temperatures in the high mountains.",Hydrological response of meltwater from glacier covered mountain basins to climate change in northwest China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1368249,"A field-oriented sedimentation study was conducted at Blind Pass Florida, shortly after the last channel dredging in the summer of 2000. Blind Pass is a wave-dominated tidal inlet that has been migrating southward for over 3,000 meters before it was stabilized by a series of hard-engineering structures since 1937. Thereafter, the inlet has been maintained by frequent dredging. The dredged material was typically used to nourish the adjacent beaches, especially the downdrift Upham Beach. Time-series measurements of tidal currents and bathymetry were conducted in the inlet channel. The ebb-dominated main channel, roughly 6 m deep, extends along the southern side, where peak ebb current approached 150 cm/s. Along the northern side of the inlet, the ebb currents are much weaker, as compared to both the flood current and ebb current in the main channel. Shortly after the 2000 dredging, rapid sedimentation was measured along the northern side of the inlet. This accumulation is likely resulted from the predominant southward longshore sand transport, bypassing the north jetty. The northern part of the inlet is dominated by flood-directed current and the weak ebb current is not adequate to flush the bypassed sediment out of the inlet. Along the southern side with the deep channel, active sediment flushing is evident as indicated by the coarse, shelly lag deposit on the bottom. Roughly 28 months after the channel dredging, the northern side near the entrance has become shallow enough to induce wave breaking over the shoal. Distinctive seasonal patterns of sedimentation are measured thereafter in the inlet channel, influenced by the seasonal wave climate.","Processes and patterns of sedimentation at blind pass, Florida",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2324340,"Silvicultural decision making in damaged off-site Norway spruce stands is a multiple-objective and multiple-attribute decision making problem. To support the decision maker in analysing such complex decision problems DSSs (decision support system) can provide valuable help. In this contribution a comprehensive outline of a DSS for silvicultural decision making with Norway spruce stands is presented. Selected components of a DSS are described and demonstrated for the evaluation of silvicultural treatment options and growth stock objectives. In this contribution, we apply (a) a static model for site requirements of tree species to assess species suitability under different climatic conditions, (b) the analytic hierarchy process (AHP sensu Saaty 1977) to determine preferences for different silvicultural treatment options as well as for growth stock objectives. The trade-off between contrasting preferences is modelled with a multiple-attribute utility function.",Implementing a decision support system for silvicultural decision making in low-elevation Norway spruce forests,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+757850,"In China, hundreds of millions of people move out of the large cities before the Chinese Spring Festival (CSF) or Chinese New Year holiday and return after every year, spurring the greatest short-term migration of human beings on earth. Surface relative humidity is a key meteorological variable that has profound impacts on the lives of city dwellers. However, it remains unknown to what extent or how mass human migration during the CSF holiday can affect urban relative humidity. Here, we focus on the period of 2005-2014 with the Olympic year of 2008 excluded, and present observational evidence for the impacts of human migration on urban relative humidity with Beijing used as an example. Note that urban relative humidity variations induced by population movements are relative to nearby non-urban values in this study. Averaged over the study period, Beijing's urban relative humidity increased by 4.00% during the CSF week relative to the non-holiday background period, statistically significant at the 99% confidence level. In relative terms, this change amounts to 76% of relative humidity difference between urban and nearby non-urban areas during the background period. This significant increase of urban relative humidity during the CSF week is also apparent in central China's Zhengzhou, supporting the robustness of the signal. These findings offer vital yet previously unknown evidence for population movement impacts on urban relative humidity from the observations, and can add value to our understanding of the human-cities nexus. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",The influence of population movements on the urban relative humidity of Beijing during the Chinese Spring Festival holiday,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+680657,"The islands of Oahu and Maui, Hawaii, with significantly different rates of localized sea-level rise (SLR, approximately 65% higher rate on Maui) over the past century due to lithospheric flexure and/or variations in upper ocean water masses, provide a unique setting to investigate possible relations between historical shoreline changes and SLR. Island-wide and regional historical shoreline trends are calculated for the islands using shoreline positions measured from aerial photographs and survey charts. Historical shoreline data are optimized to reduce anthropogenic influences on shoreline change measurements. Shoreline change trends are checked for consistency using two weighted regression methods and by systematic exclusion of coastal regions based on coastal aspect (wave exposure) and coastal geomorphology. Maui experienced the greatest extent of beach erosion over the past century with 78% percent of beaches eroding compared to 52% on Oahu. Maui also had a significantly higher island-wide average shoreline change rate at -0.13 +/- 0.05 m/yr compared to Oahu at -0.03 +/- 0.03 m/yr (at the 95% Confidence Interval). Differing rates of relative SLR around Oahu and Maui remain as the best explanation for the difference in overall shoreline trends after examining other influences on shoreline change including waves, sediment supply and littoral processes, and anthropogenic changes; though, these other influences certainly remain important to shoreline change in Hawaii. The results of this study show that SLR is an important factor in historical shoreline change in Hawaii and that historical rates of shoreline change are about two orders of magnitude greater than SLR. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Are beach erosion rates and sea-level rise related in Hawaii?,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+173509,"Global climate change is impacting and will continue to impact marine and estuarine fish and fisheries. Data trends show global climate change effects ranging from increased oxygen consumption rates in fishes, to changes in foraging and migrational patterns in polar seas, to fish community changes in bleached tropical coral reefs. Projections of future conditions portend further impacts on the distribution and abundance of fishes associated with relatively small temperature changes. Changing fish distributions and abundances will undoubtedly affect communities of humans who harvest these stocks. Coastal-based harvesters ( subsistence, commercial, recreational) may be impacted ( negatively or positively) by changes in fish stocks due to climate change. Furthermore, marine protected area boundaries, low-lying island countries dependent on coastal economies, and disease incidence ( in aquatic organisms and humans) are also affected by a relatively small increase in temperature and sea level. Our interpretations of evidence include many uncertainties about the future of affected fish species and their harvesters. Therefore, there is a need to research the physiology and ecology of marine and estuarine fishes, particularly in the tropics where comparatively little research has been conducted. As a broader and deeper information base accumulates, researchers will be able to make more accurate predictions and forge relevant solutions.",Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes and fisheries,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+758876,"Public policies, population health initiatives, and targeted behavioral change interventions for individuals at risk for developing diabetes are all essential for diabetes prevention in Latin American countries (LACs). This scoping review examines (1) the current evidence on diabetes prevention policies and interventions in LACs to identify components of effective diabetes prevention models in those countries and (2) effective diabetes prevention interventions targeting Latino populations in the USA to explore possible lessons from these interventions for LACs. Diabetes prevention programs in LACs evaluated to date consist of short-term health professional-led face-to-face behavioral counseling sessions. Intervention components of US-based programs for Latinos that might benefit diabetes prevention programs in Latin America include (1) deployment of community health workers (""promotoras"") for diabetes screening and delivery of lifestyle modification programs, (2) multiple modes of program delivery beyond face-to-face sessions, (3) information technology to automate and enhance program delivery, (4) leveraging of pre-existing familial relationships to engage in and sustain lifestyle modifications, and (5) innovative environmental change strategies such as collaborations with local food stores and markets to promote healthy behaviors.",Diabetes Prevention Interventions in Latin American Countries: a Scoping Review,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1365712,"For much of the world's forested area,,the history of fire has significant implications for understanding forest dynamics over stand to regional scales. We analyzed temporal patterns of area burned at 25-year intervals over a 600-year period, using 10 tree-ring-based fire history studies located west of the crest of the Cascade Range in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA, and related them to periods of possible influences of humans, climate, and stand development processes. An early period of widespread fire from the 1400s to ca. 1650 was followed by a period of reduced area burned from ca. 1650 to ca. 1800, possibly associated with cool climatic conditions. Fires were again widespread from ca: 1801 to ca. 1925, associated with European exploration and settlement and warm conditions. Fire suppression began ca. 1911, but appears to have been most effective in limiting the amount of area burned since ca. 1950. Anthropogenic change, climate, and the degree of stand/fuel development appear to have interacted in their influence upon temporal variation in fire regimes. Patterns of temporal variation in area burned were similar among the 10 studies, suggesting a regionally synchronous response. The roughly synchronous nature of fire in the region has important implications for our understanding of landscape dynamics under pre-settlement conditions. Forest landscapes of the Pacific Northwest may have exhibited high spatio-temporal variability even when large areas are considered. Major shifts in the landscape age class distribution were likely associated with episodic, high-severity disturbance events. Over certain time intervals in the past, particular seral stages of forest were either dominant across the region, or relatively scarce. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.","Regional synchroneity in fire regimes of western Oregon and Washington, USA",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1627337,"Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are losing large amounts of water to the world's oceans. However, estimates of their contribution to sea level rise disagree. We provide a consensus estimate by standardizing existing, and creating new, mass-budget estimates from satellite gravimetry and altimetry and from local glaciological records. In many regions, local measurements are more negative than satellite-based estimates. All regions lost mass during 2003-2009, with the largest losses from Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia, but there was little loss from glaciers in Antarctica. Over this period, the global mass budget was -259 +/- 28 gigatons per year, equivalent to the combined loss from both ice sheets and accounting for 29 +/- 13% of the observed sea level rise.",A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1343021,"Recent large wildfires in westent states have fueled increasing concerns of resource managers and the public about the effects of fire, including risks to fish, particularly endangered species. However, there are few empirical studies on the response of fish to fire and none that include anadromous species. The Tower Fire was one of four large fires in the upper John Day River basin in Oregon in 1996. Much of the area burned at moderate to high severity, consistent with the pattern of increasing fire severity and size projected for the region. Intense spring storms in 1997 and 1998 triggered large floods, landslides, and debris torrents that affected streams within and downstream of the fire. We investigated the effects of the fire and ensuing floods on fish distribution and abundance in three streams immediately after the fire through 2003. Immediately after the fire, no fish were found in moderate- and high-intensity burn areas. Fish began to repopulate defaunated reaches the year after the fire, and within 4 years distribution of juvenile steelhead (anadromous rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss) and resident rainbow trout was similar to that before the fire. Juvenile spfing Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha also began to use lower reaches of one of the streams after the flood, which had eliminated a culvert near the mouth of the stream suspected to be a barrier. Densities in most burned reaches and in unburned reaches downstream of the fire have rebounded to levels similar to or greater than densities in reference streams outside of the fire. An isolated introduced population of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis also recovered. Thus, despite the size and severity of the fire, postfire hydrologic events, and human-induced changes to watersheds, fish populations were highly resilient.",Effects of wildfire and subsequent hydrologic events on fish distribution and abundance in tributaries of north fork John Day River,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1311982,"Three equations derived from a close exponential glacier-climate relationship at the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) of Norwegian glaciers have been utilized and implemented in a geographical information system (GIS). The first equation enables calculation of the minimum altitude of areas climatically suited for glacier formation at present, and is termed the altitude of instantaneous glacierization (AIG). Equation (2) is based on the 'principle of terrain adaptation', enabling quantification of the glacial buildup sensitivity (GBS) in an area. The third equation calculates the theoretical climatic (instrumental) temperature-precipitation ELA ((TP)-T-C-ELA) in presently non-glaciated areas by combining GBS with terrain altitude. The presented approach is primarily intended for palaeoclimatic analyses of former glacial records, and is tested here based on a plot of 122 temperature stations and 197 precipitation stations during the climate normal period 1961-1990 which has been recalculated to sea level using empirical vertical climatic gradients. These data were interpolated in the GIS using an 'inverse square interpolation' routine. Subsequently, the interpolated climatic data were recalculated to the terrain surface using vertical climatic gradients and a digital elevation model (DEM) of southern Norway (resolution 5 x 5 degree minutes/c. 1 km(2)). The present glacier distribution in southern Nor-way is reproduced in great detail, and maps showing the modern GBS and (TP)-T-C-ELA in non-glacierized areas of southern Norway are presented. Based on the GBS analysis, four scenarios with ELA depressions of 150 m (average 'Little Ice Age' conditions). 500 m (average coastal Younger Dryas conditions), 1000 m (suggested late Weichselian maximum coastal conditions) and 1500 m are shown.",Theoretical equilibrium-line altitudes and glacier buildup sensitivity in southern Norway based on meteorological data in a geographical information system,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+15550,"Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates are reported for silts and very fine sands believed to be loessic sediments from northwest England. At three sites loessic sediments were initially interpreted as primary aeolian deposits, and at two other sites as loess incorporated into the matrix of cemented scree. However, the results of OSL dating indicate a more complex pattern of accumulation than originally hypothesized and have prompted reconsideration of these materials. Whatever the process(es) and underlying cause(s), it is evident that significant amounts of soil erosion occurred on the limestone uplands earlier than previously thought. All but one of the ages fall entirely within the Holocene period and suggest that these deposits contain reworked, rather than primary loess. Four of the five sites are characterized by non-Gaussian dose distributions, and consequently equivalent doses have been estimated using a range of appropriate age models. The implications of differences in the ages derived from the fine silt and fine sand fractions of the samples are considered. Three processes, namely aeolian transport, overland flow and subsoil piping, are invoked to account for the reworking of loess, although their relative contributions cannot be quantified. At one site the inclusion of limestone clasts within the reworked loess strongly suggests that the sediment can be regarded as loess-derived colluvium. Human impacts on the landscape and climate shifts, either separately or in combination, are considered to have been the most likely mechanisms that triggered loess erosion.",Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of loessic sediments and cemented scree in northwest England,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+67429,"When estimating climate change impact on crop yield, a typical assumption is constant elasticity of yield with respect to a climate variable even though the elasticity may be inconstant. After estimating both constant and inconstant elasticities with respect to temperature and precipitation based on provincial panel data in China 1980-2008, our results show that during that period, the temperature change contributes positively to total yield growth by 13% and 0.4% for wheat and rice, respectively, but negatively by 12% for maize. The impacts of precipitation change are marginal. We also compare our estimates with other studies and highlight the implications of the inconstant elasticities for crop yield, harvest and food security. We conclude that climate change impact on crop yield would not be an issue in China if positive impacts of other socio-economic factors continue in the future. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Climate change impacts on crop yield: Evidence from China,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+371395,"We used daily rainfall and streamflow time series from two large catchments in the seasonal tropics of Queensland, Australia to investigate the hydrological impacts of woodland clearing. The Comet catchment (16,440 km(2)) had 45% of the native woodland cleared during the mid-1960s. In the Upper Burdekin catchment (17,299 km(2)) clearing decreased native woodland extent from 83% to 58% between 1998 and 2009. An earlier modelling study concluded that clearing in the Comet catchment increased annual streamflow by more than 40%. Here, several published inference methods to separate land use effects from climate variability were applied. Trend analysis of daily rainfall and streamflow data showed that interannual changes in mean streamflow in the Comet catchment were mostly due to changes in rainfall. In particular, a series of La Nina events after clearing led to an unusual lack of dry periods and an apparently associated temporary increase in runoff coefficient. The overriding importance of climate variability was further confirmed using a conceptual framework that was used to interpret changes in the long-term coupled water-energy budget. Even so, there was some evidence for a slight increase in streamflow for the first few years after clearing. Fitting a Budyko-type model for two climatically similar pre- and post-clearing periods (1920-1953 and 1979-2007) did not suggest a considerable change in the catchment water balance after clearing. Analysis of daily streamflow metrics did reveal some changes however, with enhanced peak flows and reduced low flows. In the Upper Burdekin catchment, trend analysis revealed a change in baseflow dynamics after clearing, while event storm flow for large rainfall events increased. In summary, woodland clearing in northern Queensland appears to have had a smaller impact on mean and interannual streamflow than might be expected from studies at sites and in small experimental catchments, but changes in daily streamflow patterns do suggest a modest change in catchment dynamics. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Detecting changes in streamflow after partial woodland clearing in two large catchments in the seasonal tropics,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1501771,"Seasonal streamflow predictions provide a critical management tool for water managers in the American Southwest. In recent decades, persistent prediction errors for spring and summer runoff volumes have been observed in a number of watersheds in the American Southwest. While mostly driven by decadal precipitation trends, these errors also relate to the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow in these basins. Here we show that incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from operational global climate prediction models into streamflow forecasting models adds prediction skill for watersheds in the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande River basins. Current dynamical seasonal temperature forecasts now show sufficient skill to reduce streamflow forecast errors in snowmelt-driven regions. Such predictions can increase the resilience of streamflow forecasting and water management systems in the face of continuing warming as well as decadal-scale temperature variability and thus help to mitigate the impacts of climate nonstationarity on streamflow predictability.",Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Nonstationarity on Seasonal Streamflow Predictability in the US Southwest,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1383068,"Forest fires constitute one of the most serious environmental problems in several forested regions of India. In the Indian sub-continent, relatively few studies have focused on the assessment of biophysical and anthropogenic controls of forest fires at a landscape scale and the spatial aspects of these relationships. In this study, we used fire count data sets from satellite remote sensing data covering 78 districts over four different states of the Deccan Plateau, India, for assessing the underlying causes of fires. Spatial data for explanatory variables of fires pertaining to topography, vegetation, climate, anthropogenic and accessibility factors have been gathered corresponding with fire presence/absence. A logistic regression model was used to estimate the probability of the presence of fires as a function of the explanatory variables. Results for fire area estimates suggested that, of the total fires covering 47,043 km(2) that occurred during the year 2000 for the entire Indian region, 29.0% occurred in the Deccan Plateau, with Andhra Pradesh having 13.5%, Karnataka 14.7%, Kerala 0.1%, and Tamilnadu 1.15%. Results from the logistic regression suggest that the strongest influences on the fire occurrences were the amount of forest area, biomass densities, rural population density (PD), average precipitation of the warmest quarter, elevation (ELE) and mean annual temperature (MAT). Among these variables, biomass density (BD) and average precipitation of the warmest quarter had the highest significance, followed by others. These results on the best predictors of forest fires can be used both as a strategic planning tool to address broad scale fire risk concerns, and also as a tactical guide to help forest managers to design fire mitigation measures Lit the district level. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Biophysical and anthropogenic controls of forest fires in the Deccan Plateau, India",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+295484,"Ocean temperatures in most parts of the world are increasing and are expected to continue to rise during the 21st century. A major challenge to ecologists and marine resource managers is to understand and predict how these global changes will affect species and ecosystems at local scales where temperature more directly affects biological responses and species interactions. Here, we investigate historical variability in regional sea surface temperature in two large heavily exploited marine ecosystems and compare these variations with expected rates of temperature change for the 21st century. We use four of the world's longest calibrated daily time series to show that trends in surface temperatures in the North and Baltic Seas now exceed those at any time since instrumented measurements began in 1861 and 1880. Temperatures in summer since 1985 have increased at nearly triple the global warming rate, which is expected to occur during the 21st century and summer temperatures have risen two to five times faster than those in other seasons. These warm temperatures and rates of change are due partly to an increase in the frequency of extremely warm years. The recent warming event is exceeding the ability of local species to adapt and is consequently leading to major changes in the structure, function and services of these ecosystems.",Daily ocean monitoring since the 1860s shows record warming of northern European seas,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2309560,"Global warming has caused severe regional water security risks, and from the theory of the hydrological cycle, the daily extreme temperature could also bring an impact on the streamflow volume, which could be even more important than the average temperature. Therefore, based on the level of the maximum or minimum temperature warming scenarios, a variety of meteorological datasets were selected to assess the asymmetric effect of increased daily extreme temperature on the streamflow from a multi-scale perspective by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Model simulations indicate that the streamflow experiences more significant changes in response to the maximum temperature than in response to the minimum temperature, and the relationships of streamflow with both the maximum and minimum temperatures show an upwards parabolic response function, but the response function varies with the type of warming. Additionally, the seasonal and monthly duration curves results show that the increases in both the maximum and minimum temperatures demonstrate a similar response that leads the proportion of the flood period streamflow to be increased (Tmin: 0.16-0.53%/degrees C; Tmax: 0.11-0.51%/degrees C). When the minimum temperature increases, the higher the original temperature in the region, the greater the proportion of the flood period streamflow increases. However, when the maximum temperature increases, the opposite effect occurs.","The regional asymmetric effect of increased daily extreme temperature on the streamflow from a multiscale perspective: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+24919,"Modern changes in regional climates will result in high ecosystem turnover and substantial biodiversity rearrangements. Understanding these changes requires palaeoecological studies at temporal resolutions comparable to the time window at which modern climate change is occurring. Here we present a multi-proxy, high-resolution record of forest and lake ecosystem change that occurred during the last 1100 years at middle elevations in Panama. From similar to 900 to 1400 CE, regional forest and lake ecosystems were characterized by high seasonality, probably associated with both high El Nino activity and higher global temperatures. At similar to 1400 CE, an abrupt transition marked the decoupling of forest and lake responses, with forest responding mostly to local patterns of human occupation, and lake trophic status being controlled mostly by the regional precipitation-evaporation balance, possibly associated with solar irradiance. Factors that played important roles in shaping regional ecosystems during the last 1100 years will probably again play critical roles within the coming decades, i.e. higher precipitation seasonality and higher temperatures. Past responses of the system, together with pervasive human activities, suggest that future conditions will simplify mid-elevation forests. Given the importance of these geographical locations as hotspots of biological diversity, substantial losses of global biodiversity are foreseen. Copyright (C) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Mid-elevation ecosystems of Panama: future uncertainties in light of past global climatic variability,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+423472,"The performance of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) was evaluated against observed eddy covariance flux data from four commonly cultivated crops growing in different climatic conditions. Of the four crops examined, wheat and soybean are C-3 plants, whereas maize and millet are C-4 plants. Physiological modules to simulate photosynthesis, respiration and growth for C-4 plants were added to CLASS. Apart from maximum photosynthesis capacity, and root and soil respiration rates at reference temperatures, most model parameters were kept constant for each crop. The diumal and seasonal cycles of simulated energy, water vapor and carbon dioxide fluxes were similar to the measurements made during the growing seasons for each of the four crops. Simulated values of canopy conductance were in agreement with observations. The model was able to explain 84, 76, 84 and 58% of the variance in the half-hourly net ecosystem productivity values for the maize, soybean, wheat and millet crops, respectively. Similarly, 77, 76, 77 and 78% of the variance in observed half-hourly evaporative fluxes was accounted for by the model for the maize, soybean, wheat and millet crops, respectively. We conclude that despite the process-based physics of the model, it is still critical to correctly specify detailed model parameters such as maximum carboxylation rate V-cmax, plant and soil carbon pools and temperature sensitivity coefficients to obtain close agreement between simulated and observed fluxes. Increasing the complexity of the model physics further necessitates the accurate specification of additional model parameters depending on the intended use of the model. The enhanced version of CLASS when coupled to Canadian global and regional climate models or when used as a stand-alone component can potentially be a valuable tool to evaluate the impact of climate change on the growth and health of terrestrial ecosystems. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved.","The simulation of energy, water vapor and carbon dioxide fluxes over common crops by the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS)",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+364238,"Background: Climate manipulation experiments have found lagged responses in biomass and community composition. Aims: To look for lagged responses of flowering phenology and effects on duration of reproductive phases. Methods: Treatment and post-treatment year phenological data from 12 species in a 1-year step warming and double precipitation experiment was examined. Results: Changes in phenology due to the previous year's warming were in the opposite direction to those observed during the treatment year. Six species responded to warming in 2004, delaying flowering 6.2 days and fruiting 7.9 days. Unlike 2003, no species advanced flowering phenology in 2004. Delays resulted from a soil moisture deficit in formerly warmed plots that lasted 3 months or more after warming ended. Increased precipitation altered phenology in one species but did not affect duration of reproductive phases. While 10 of 11 responsive species entered bud phase earlier under warming than in controls in 2003, in only two species showed a phenological delay at the beginning of the bud phase in 2004. Warming tended to shorten flowering and fruiting stages and total duration in spring annuals. Conclusions: Together, these results suggest that climate anomalies can influence phenology in the following year, here due to a lag in soil moisture recharge.",Changes in duration of reproductive phases and lagged phenological response to experimental climate warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+483509,"Trends of summer precipitation and summer temperature and their influence on trends in summer drought and area burned in British Columbia (BC) were investigated for the period 1920-2000. The complexity imposed by topography was taken into account by incorporating high spatial resolution climate and fire data. Considerable regional variation in trends and in climate-fire relationships was observed. A weak but significant increase in summer temperature was detected in northeastern and coastal BC, whereas summer precipitation increased significantly in all regions-by up to 45.9 %. A significant decrease in province-wide area burned and at the level of sub-units was strongly related to increasing precipitation, more so than to changing temperature or drought severity. A stronger dependence of area burned on precipitation, a variable difficult to predict, implies that projected changes in future area burned in this region may yield higher uncertainties than in regions where temperature is predominantly the limiting factor for fire activity. We argue that analyses of fire-climate relationships must be undertaken at a sufficiently high resolution such that spatial variability in limiting factors on area burned like precipitation, temperature, and drought is captured within units.",Precipitation-driven decrease in wildfires in British Columbia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1059701,"Position and intensity data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) are combined with global, gridded precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) for the period 1998-2013 to study the diurnal cycle of precipitation in tropical cyclones. The comprehensive global coverage and large sample size afforded by the two datasets allow robust statistical analysis of storm-averaged diurnal variations and permit stratification of the data in various ways. There is a clearly detectable diurnal variation of precipitation in tropical cyclones with peak rainfall occurring near 0600 local time. For storms of all intensities the amplitude of the diurnal harmonic, which dominates the diurnal cycle, is approximately 7% of the mean rain rate. This corresponds to a peak-to-peak variation of about 15% over the course of the day. The diurnal cycle is similar in all ocean basins. There is evidence that the amplitude of the diurnal cycle increases with increasing storm intensity, but the results are not statistically significant. The results have implications for hurricane forecasting and for a greater understanding of the processes that regulate oceanic convection.",The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in Tropical Cyclones,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+492603,"The Western Himalayas during winter receives precipitation due to the eastward moving low pressure synoptic weather systems, called Western Disturbances (WDs) in Indian meteorological parlance. The complex Himalayan topography, sparse observational data, less understanding of physical processes, etc. form many interesting research questions over this region. One of the important research goals is to study the change in the winter (Dec., Jan. and Feb. - DJF) climate over the Himalayas. In the presented study with modelling efforts having varying initial and boundary conditions (ICBC) with same model physics option is attempted to provide a comment on important physical processes pertaining to precipitation and temperature fields. A 22 year (1980-2001) simulation with Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) forced with National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis 1 (NNRP1), NCEP/NCAR reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40 Year reanalysis (ERA40) as three different ICBC is carried out. The present study focuses on the winter climatology of the main meteorological parameters viz., temperature, precipitation and snow depth and interannual variability of winter seasonal precipitation. The model shows overestimation of seasonal average precipitation and underestimation of seasonal average temperature fields over the Western Himalayas in all the three model simulations. The interannual variability of precipitation and temperature over this region is nicely captured by the model. The model simulation with NNRP2 as the ICBC shows more realistic results. In addition the ensemble mean of the three simulations has shown improved results and is closer to the abovementioned simulation. Precipitation bias explained in terms of the higher vertical integrated moisture flux and transport shows strong convergence zone over and along the southern rim of the Indian Himalayas. The energy balance over the Western Himalayas explains the cause of lower temperature in the model simulation and the cause of lesser convective precipitation and evaporation. (c) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Impact of initial and boundary conditions on regional winter climate over the Western Himalayas: A fixed domain size experiment,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+702948,"Aim To examine the effect of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of Pipistrellus nathusii (Nathusius' pipistrelle) in the United Kingdom (UK). Location We modelled habitat and climatic associations of P. nathusii in the UK and applied this model to the species' historical range in continental Europe. Methods A binomial logistic regression model was constructed relating the occurrence of P. nathusii to climate and habitat characteristics using historical species occurrence records (1940-2006) and CORINE land cover data. This model was applied to historical and projected climate data to examine changes in suitable range (1940-2080) of this species. We tested the predictive ability of the model with known records in the UK after 2006 and applied the model to the species' known range in Europe. Results The distribution of P. nathusii was related positively to the area of water bodies, woodland and small areas of urbanization, and negatively related to the area of peat/heathland. Species records were associated with higher minimum temperatures, low seasonal variation in temperature and intermediate rainfall. We found that suitable areas have existed in the UK since the 1940s and that these have expanded. The model had high predictive power when applied to new records after 2006, with a correct classification rate of 70%, estimated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Based on climate projections, our model suggests a potential twofold increase in the area suitable for P. nathusii in the UK by 2050. The single most influential climate variable contributing to range increase was the projected increase in minimum temperature. When applied to Europe, the model predictions had best predictive capability of known records in western areas of the species' range, where P. nathusii is present during the winter. Main conclusions We show that a mobile, migratory species has adapted its range in response to recent climate change on a continental scale. We believe this may be the first study to demonstrate a case of range change linked to contemporary climate change in a mammal species in Europe.","Climate change-linked range expansion of Nathusius' pipistrelle bat, Pipistrellus nathusii (Keyserling & Blasius, 1839)",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+577372,"Plant water availability is a key factor that determines maize yield response to excess heat. Lack of available data has limited researchers' ability to estimate this relationship at regional and global scales. Using a new soil moisture data set developed by running a crop growth simulator over historical data we demonstrate how current estimates of maize yield sensitivity to high temperature are misleading. We develop an empirical model relating observed yields to climate variables and soil moisture in a high maize production region in the United States to develop bounds on yield sensitivity to high temperatures. For the portion of the region with a relatively long growing season, yield reduction per degrees C is 10% for high water availability and 32.5% for low water availability. Where the growing season is shorter, yield reduction per degrees C is 6% for high water availability and 27% for low water availability. These results indicate the importance of using both water availability and temperature to model crop yield response to explain future climate change on crop yields.",Placing bounds on extreme temperature response of maize,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3980477,"Understanding the impact of plastic debris on marine birds is important for conservation of some species, and assessing risk from this anthropogenic threat requires high-quality distribution data for both marine birds and plastic debris. We applied a risk assessment framework to explore the relative risk for 19 marine bird species posed by plastic debris in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. We estimated exposure for each species by combining scores from (1) spatial overlap of predicted marine bird densities from habitat-association models and predicted density of marine plastics from terrestrial input and ocean circulation models, (2) species' foraging behavior, and (3) species' residence time in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. We estimated sensitivity for each species by combining scores for (1) mortality/sub-lethal effects of ingested plastic debris, (2) off-loading of plastics via regurgitation, (3) fecundity, and (4) age of breeding maturity. Overall risk from marine debris was greatest for more pelagic species and lowest for nearshore coastal species and generally agreed with published plastic ingestion studies. Notably, marine plastic debris densities are greatest at the western edge and offshore of the study domain, which likely explains the greater risk we observed in more pelagic species. This study is the first to look specifically at plastic debris risk to marine birds in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem, and our results suggest that any attempts to mitigate the impacts of plastic debris on marine birds will likely require assessment and actions beyond the California Current into the broader Pacific basin. © 2020",Plastics in the Pacific: Assessing risk from ocean debris for marine birds in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+460965,"The 2010 biodiversity target of a 'significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss' presents challenges for effective measurement of changes in global/regional biodiversity. A simple 'biodiversity intactness index' (BII) is attractive in using available data and expert opinion, but is seen to be only weakly linked to 'biodiversity' in its usual sense of 'variation'. An example illustrates how an improved BII score could result even when there are large species losses. A family of alternative biodiversity 'representativeness indices' better reflect variation. They use the same readily available information, plus simple species-area relationships (SAR) and genetic diversity curves. A new genetic-diversity abundance-fraction curve, like SAR, is linear in log-log space. The new representativeness indices incorporate, through range-abundance curves, the abundance fraction estimates normally used for BII. Land use or climate change impacts therefore can reflect partial rather than total biodiversity losses at localities. Estimates of biodiversity gains/losses using these indices enable a novel regional planning-based approach for addressing the 2010 target.",Getting biodiversity intactness indices right: ensuring that 'biodiversity' reflects 'diversity',1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+564121,"Century-scale global near-surface temperature trends in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in climate models vary by almost a factor of 2, with greatest intermodel spread in the Arctic region where sea ice is a key climate component. Three factors contribute to the intermodel spread: 1) model formulation, 2) control climate state, and 3) internal climate variability. This study focuses on the influence of Arctic sea ice in the control climate on the intermodel spread in warming, using idealized 1% yr(-1) CO2 increase simulations of 33 state-of-the-art global climate models, and combining sea ice-temperature relations on local to large spatial scales. On the Arctic mean scale, the spread in temperature trends is only weakly related to ice volume or area in the control climate, and is probably not dominated by internal variability. This suggests that other processes, such as ocean heat transport and meteorological conditions, play a more important role in the spread of long-term Arctic warming than control sea ice conditions. However, on a local scale, sea ice-warming relations show that in regions with more sea ice, models generally simulate more warming in winter and less warming in summer. The local winter warming is clearly related to control sea ice and universal among models, whereas summer sea ice-warming relations are more diverse, and are probably dominated by differences in model formulation. To obtain a more realistic representation of Arctic warming, it is recommended to simulate control sea ice conditions in climate models so that the spatial pattern is correct.",The Role of the Mean State of Arctic Sea Ice on Near-Surface Temperature Trends,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2333587,"The increasing number of naturalized non-native plant species with a negative ecological impact on the communities where they grow (invasive species) is viewed as a major component of global change and is an important topic of current ecological research. In most regions of the world, the number of alien species is increasing as a result of trade, tourism, and disturbance, thus increasing the likelihood of plant invasions. Several international organizations have incorporated the invasive plant species issue in their main activities and have formulated guidelines for the management and eradication of invasive species. Switzerland as a central European country does not have as many invasive species as for example countries of other continents; however, some species are regarded as being invasive and are of special concern due to the highly fragmented and intensively used landscape. With the exceptions of the Alps, wildlife and areas of high conservation value are restricted to usually small areas, surrounded by heavily disturbed habitats or urban areas. In such places, invasive plant species may pose additional threats to the native diversity. Species of high concern are for example the north American Robinia pseudoacacia, Solidago altissima, S. gigantea, and the Asian species Impatiens glandulifera and Reynoutria japonica. In this article, the invasive species issue is highlighted with regard to the Swiss flora, and the needs for actions are discussed.",Switzerland and the invasive plant species issue,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2341177,"This study evaluates the performance of climate models in reproducing surface solar radiation (SSR) over Southern Africa (SA) by validating five Regional Climate Models (RCM, including CCLM4, HIRHAM5, RACMO22T, RCA4 and REMO2009) that participated in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment program over Africa (CORDEX-Africa) along with their ten driving General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 over SA. The model simulated SSR was thereby compared to reference data from ground-based measurements, satellite-derived products and reanalyses over the period 1990-2005. Results show that (1) the references obtained from satellite retrievals and reanalyses overall overestimate SSR by up to 10W/m(2) on average when compared to ground-based measurements from the Global Energy Balance Archive, which are located mainly over the eastern part of the southern African continent. (2) Compared to one of the satellite products (Surface Solar Radiation Data SetHeliosat Edition 2; SARAH-2): GCMs overestimate SSR over SA in terms of their multi-model mean by about 1W/m(2) (compensation of opposite biases over sub-regions) and 7.5W/m(2) in austral summer and winter respectively; RCMs driven by GCMs show in their multimodel mean underestimations of SSR in both seasons with Mean Bias Errors (MBEs) of about -30W/m(2) in austral summer and about -14W/m(2) in winter compared to SARAH-2. This multi-model mean low bias is dominated by the simulations of the CCLM4, with negative biases up to -76W/m(2) in summer and -32W/m(2) in winter. (3) The discrepancies in the simulated SSR over SA are larger in the RCMs than in the GCMs. (4) In terms of trend during the brightening period 1990-2005, both GCMs and RCMs (driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis ERA-Interim, short as ERAINT and GCMs) simulate an SSR trend of less than 1W/m(2) per decade. However, variations of SSR trend exist among different references data. (5) For individual RCM models, their SSR bias fields seem rather insensitive with respect to the different lateral forcings provided by ERAINT and various GCMs, in line with previous findings over Europe. (6) Biases in SSR are overall qualitatively consistent with those in total cloud cover. The information obtained in present study is of crucial importance for understanding future climate projections of SSR and for relevant impact studies.",Numerical simulation of surface solar radiation over Southern Africa. Part1: Evaluation of regional and global climate models,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1801136,"The cryosphere is represented in some hydrological models by the areal extent of snow cover, a variable that has been operationally available in recent years through remote sensing. In particular, the snowmelt-runoff model !(SRM) requires the remotely sensed snow-cover extent as a major input variable. The SRM, is well-suited for simulating the hydrological response of a basin to hypothetical climate change because it is a non-calibrated model. In order to run the SRM in a climate-change mode, the response of the areal snow cover to a change in climate is critical, and must be calculated as a function of elevation, precipitation, temperature, and snow-water equivalent. For the snowmelt-runoff season, the effect of climate change on conditions in the winter months has a major influence. In a warmer climate, winter may experience more rain vs snow events, and more periods of winter snowmelt that reduce the snow water equivalent present in the basin at the beginning of spring snowmelt. As a result, the spring snowmelt runoff under conditions of climate warming will be affected not only by different temperatures and precipitation, but also by a different snow cover with a changed depletion rate. A new radiation-based version of the SRM is under development that will also take chang;es in cloudiness and humidity into account, making climate-change studies of the cryosphere even more physically based.",The response of areal snow cover to climate change in a snowmelt-runoff model,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+18223,"1. Climate change is reported to have caused widespread changes to species' populations and ecological communities. Warming has been associated with population declines in long-distance migrants and habitat specialists, and increases in southerly distributed species. However, the specific climatic drivers behind these changes remain undescribed. 2. We analysed annual fluctuations in the abundance of 59 breeding bird species in England over 45 years to test the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation means upon population trends. 3. Strong positive correlations between population growth and both winter and breeding season temperature were identified for resident and short-distance migrants. Lagged correlations between population growth and summer temperature and precipitation identified for the first time a widespread negative impact of hot, dry summer weather. Resident populations appeared to increase following wet autumns. Populations of long-distance migrants were negatively affected by May temperature, consistent with a potential negative effect of phenological mismatch upon breeding success. There was evidence for some nonlinear relationships between monthly weather variables and population growth. 4. Habitat specialists and cold-associated species showed consistently more negative effects of higher temperatures than habitat generalists and southerly distributed species associated with warm temperatures. Results suggest that previously reported changes in community composition represent the accumulated effects of spring and summer warming. 5. Long-term population trends were more significantly correlated with species' sensitivity to temperature than precipitation, suggesting that warming has had a greater impact on population trends than changes in precipitation. Months where there had been the greatest warming were the most influential drivers of long-term change. There was also evidence that species with the greatest sensitivity to extremes of precipitation have tended to decline. 6. Our results provide novel insights about the impact of climate change on bird communities. Significant lagged effects highlight the potential for altered species' interactions to drive observed climate change impacts, although some community changes may have been driven by more immediate responses to warming. In England, resident and short-distance migrant populations have increased in response to climate change, but potentially at the expense of long-distance migrants, habitat specialists and cold-associated species.",Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+787082,"Understanding how climate change and other environmental stressors will affect species is a fundamental concern of modern ecology. Indeed, numerous studies have documented how climate stressors affect species distributions and population persistence. However, relatively few studies have investigated how multiple climate stressors might affect species. In this study, we investigate the impacts of how two climate change factors affect an important foundation species. Specifically, we tested how ocean acidification from dissolution of CO2 and increased sea surface temperatures affect multiple characteristics of juvenile eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica). We found strong impacts of each stressor, but no interaction between the two. Simulated warming to mimic heat stressed summers reduced oyster growth, survival, and filtration rates. Additionally, we found that CO2-induced acidification reduced strength of oyster shells, which could potentially facilitate crab predation. As past studies have detected few impacts of these stressors on adult oysters, these results indicate that early life stages of calcareous marine organisms may be more susceptible to effects of ocean acidification and global warming. Overall, these data show that predicted changes in temperature and CO2 can differentially influence direct effects on individual species, which could have important implications for the nature of their trophic interactions.",The effects of elevated temperature and dissolved CO2 on a marine foundation species,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+746577,"We examined the hypothesis that ecological niche models (ENMs) more accurately predict species distributions when they incorporate information on population genetic structure, and concomitantly, local adaptation. Local adaptation is common in species that span a range of environmental gradients (e.g., soils and climate). Moreover, common garden studies have demonstrated a covariance between neutral markers and functional traits associated with a species' ability to adapt to environmental change. We therefore predicted that genetically distinct populations would respond differently to climate change, resulting in predicted distributions with little overlap. To test whether genetic information improves our ability to predict a species' niche space, we created genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) using Populus fremontii (Salicaceae), a widespread tree species in which prior common garden experiments demonstrate strong evidence for local adaptation. Four major findings emerged: (i) gENMs predicted population occurrences with up to 12-fold greater accuracy than models without genetic information; (ii) tests of niche similarity revealed that three ecotypes, identified on the basis of neutral genetic markers and locally adapted populations, are associated with differences in climate; (iii) our forecasts indicate that ongoing climate change will likely shift these ecotypes further apart in geographic space, resulting in greater niche divergence; (iv) ecotypes that currently exhibit the largest geographic distribution and niche breadth appear to be buffered the most from climate change. As diverse agents of selection shape genetic variability and structure within species, we argue that gENMs will lead to more accurate predictions of species distributions under climate change.",Genetically informed ecological niche models improve climate change predictions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1843059,One of the most important impacts on society of future climatic changes will be changes in regional water availability. This study used a monthly water balance model to simulate the hydrological response of climate change on catchments in central Sweden. Twenty-five case study catchments (from 6 to 1293 km(2)) representing a range of climatic and geological conditions were used together with fifteen hypothetical climate change scenarios of temperature increases coupled with precipitation changes. The results suggest that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause major decreases in winter snow accumulation. Significant increase of winter flow and decrease of spring and summer runoff were resulted from most scenarios. Attendant changes in the monthly distribution of actual evapotranspiration were also examined. Such hydrological results would have significant implications on future water resources design and management.,Hydrological responses to climate changes in central Sweden,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1504576,"The impact of declining sea ice in amplifying surface air temperatures (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean is readily visible, and this ""Arctic amplification"" will become more pronounced as more sea ice is lost in the coming decades. The effect of sea ice loss on atmospheric temperatures and circulation patterns is of utmost significance as these changes will affect the terrestrial climate. Land-surface snow is vulnerable to these changes; hence, we search for any link between changes in Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere snow cover. Analyses of observational data sets suggest that the increasing snow cover over Siberia during fall and early winter is correlated with the decreasing September Arctic sea ice over the Pacific sector. We also examine modeled covariance between sea ice and snow using historical and future simulations of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Results indicate the emergence of a Siberian snow signal during the last half of the 21st century most strongly during late winter. Moreover, CCSM3 future simulations show diminishment of snow at a hemispheric scale outside of the Siberian region, which is correlated with the loss of Arctic sea ice. These results indicate that we may be seeing the first, albeit weak, signs of ""Arctic amplification"" on the terrestrial Arctic snowpack; that only a weak and therefore inconclusive signal would be expected at this time; and that the signal should strengthen over the coming decades.",On the emergence of an Arctic amplification signal in terrestrial Arctic snow extent,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+582994,"Background: It is expected that the successful nationwide reforestation and global warming will greatly change the butterfly fauna in South Korea. We compared current data (2002 to 2007) regarding the abundance and presence of butterfly species at two sites in the central portion of the Korean Peninsula with similar data from the late 1950s and early 1970s for the same sites. The expected changes were documented by an abundance change of butterflies at the two study sites in a previous study. Using the same data, the most greatly changed species and the change of species presence were analyzed. Results: Population changes of 99 butterfly species which occurred at both sites were significantly correlated between the two sites. The greatly increased species included three southern (S) species and one northern (N) species. However, the species showing great decline included five N species and no S species. Conclusions: This change is consistent with the expectation of northward movement of butterfly species due to global warming. The current status of the greatly changed species is discussed along with other studies. The binary data (presence/absence) in the present study support the expected changes of butterfly species based on global warming and reforestation. The interactive effect of two environmental changes was also recognized, as well as the change of abundance in the previous study.",Local change of butterfly species in response to global warming and reforestation in Korea,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+789732,"The recent and rapid digitization of biodiversity data from natural history collection (NHC) archives has enriched collections based data repositories; this data continues to inform studies of species' geographic distributions. Here we investigate the relative impact of plant data from small natural history collections (collections with < 100,000 specimens) on species distributional models in an effort to document the potential of data from small NHCs to contribute to and inform biodiversity research. We modelled suitable habitat of five test case species from Fuireneae (Cyperaceae) in the United States using specimen records available via the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and that of data ready to mobilize from two regional small herbaria. Data were partitioned into three datasets based on their source: 1) collections-based records from large NHCs accessed GBIF, 2) collections-based records from small NHCs accessed from GBIF, and 3) collections-based records from two small regional herbaria not yet mobilized to GBIF. We extracted and evaluated the ecological niche represented for each of the three datasets by applying dataset occurrences to 14 environmental factors, and we modelled habitat suitability using Maxent to compare the represented distribution of the environmental values among the datasets. Our analyses indicate that the data from small NHCs contributed unique information in both geographic and environmental space. When data from small collections were combined with data from large collections, species models of the ecological niche resulted in more refined predictions of habitat suitability, indicating that small collections can contribute unique occurrence data which enhance species distribution models by bridging geographic collection gaps and shifting modelled predictions of suitable habitat. Inclusion of specimen records from small collections in ongoing digitization efforts is essential for generating informed models of a species' niche and distribution.",The contribution of small collections to species distribution modelling: A case study from Fuireneae (Cyperaceae),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+561026,"Increases in surface ozone (O-3) and fine particulate matter (<= 2.5 mu m aerodynamic diameter, PM2.5) are associated with excess premature human mortalities. We estimate changes in surface O-3 and PM2.5 from pre-industrial (1860) to present (2000) and the global present-day (2000) premature human mortalities associated with these changes. We extend previous work to differentiate the contribution of changes in three factors: emissions of short-lived air pollutants, climate change, and increased methane (CH4) concentrations, to air pollution levels and associated premature mortalities. We use a coupled chemistry-climate model in conjunction with global population distributions in 2000 to estimate exposure attributable to concentration changes since 1860 from each factor. Attributable mortalities are estimated using health impact functions of long-term relative risk estimates for O-3 and PM2.5 from the epidemiology literature. We find global mean surface PM2.5 and health-relevant O-3 (defined as the maximum 6-month mean of 1-h daily maximum O-3 in a year) have increased by 8+/-0.16 mu gm(-3) and 30+/-0.16 ppbv (results reported as annual average +/-standard deviation of 10-yr model simulations), respectively, over this industrial period as a result of combined changes in emissions of air pollutants (EMIS), climate (CLIM) and CH4 concentrations (TCH4). EMIS, CLIM and TCH4 cause global population-weighted average PM2.5 (O-3) to change by +7.5+/-0.19 mu gm(-3) (+25+/-0.30 ppbv), +0.4+/-0.17 mu gm(-3) (+0.5+/-0.28 ppbv), and 0.04+/-0.24 mu gm(-3) (+4.3+/-0.33 ppbv), respectively. Total global changes in PM2.5 are associated with 1.5 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-1.8) million cardiopulmonary mortalities and 95 (95% CI, 44-144) thousand lung cancer mortalities annually and changes in O-3 are associated with 375 (95% CI, 129-592) thousand respiratory mortalities annually. Most air pollution mortality is driven by changes in emissions of short-lived air pollutants and their precursors (95% and 85% of mortalities from PM2.5 and O-3 respectively). However, changing climate and increasing CH4 concentrations also contribute to premature mortality associated with air pollution globally (by up to 5% and 15 %, respectively). In some regions, the contribution of climate change and increased CH4 together are responsible for more than 20% of the respiratory mortality associated with O-3 exposure. We find the interaction between climate change and atmospheric chemistry has influenced atmospheric composition and human mortality associated with industrial air pollution. Our study highlights the benefits to air quality and human health of CH4 mitigation as a component of future air pollution control policy.","Air pollution and associated human mortality: the role of air pollutant emissions, climate change and methane concentration increases from the preindustrial period to present",1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+477421,"Background: Heat waves have been reported to be associated with increased mortality; however, fewer studies have examined the effect modification by heat wave characteristics, individual characteristics and community characteristics. Methods: This study investigated the effect of extreme heat on mortality in 2 urban and 2 rural communities in Guangdong Province, China during 2006-2010. The effect of extreme heat was divided into two parts: main effect due to high temperature and added effect due to prolonged heat for several consecutive days. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to calculate the relative risk with consideration of lag days and potential confounding factors. Separate models were further fit by individual characteristics (cause of death, age and gender) and heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration and timing), and potential effect modification of community characteristics was examined using a meta-regression, such as educational levels, percentage of the elderly, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP). Results: The overall main effects (ER = 8.2%, 95% CI: 3.4%, 13.2%) were greater than the added effects (ER = 0.0%, 95% CI: -3.8%, 4.0%) on the current day. The main effect peaked at lag0-2, and was higher for the two rural areas compared to the two cities, for respiratory compared to cardiovascular mortality, for those 75 years old and for females. The modifying effects of heat wave characteristics and community characteristics on mortality were not statistically significant. Conclusion: This study suggests the effects of extreme heat were mainly driven by high temperature, which can be modified by some individual characteristics. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","The effect of heat waves on mortality and effect modifiers in four communities of Guangdong Province, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1406545,"Understanding how climate can interact with other factors in determining patterns of species abundance is a persistent challenge in ecology. Recent research has suggested that the dynamics exhibited by some populations may be a non-additive function of climate, with climate affecting population growth more strongly at high density than at low density. However, we lack methodologies to adequately explain patterns in population growth generated as a result of interactions between intrinsic factors and extrinsic climatic variation in non-linear systems. We present a novel method (the Functional Coefficient Threshold Auto-Regressive (FCTAR) method) that can identify interacting influences of climate and density on population dynamics from time-series data. We demonstrate its use on count data on the size of the Soay sheep population, which is known to exhibit dynamics generated by nonlinear and non-additive interactions between density and climate, living on Hirta in the St Kilda archipelago. The FCTAR method suggests that climate fluctuations can drive the Soay sheep population between different dynamical regimes-from stable population size through limit cycles and non-periodic fluctuations.",Modelling non-additive and nonlinear signals from climatic noise in ecological time series: Soay sheep as an example,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+41093,"This paper documents the occurrence of significant glacier and hydroclimatic changes in northwestern Patagonia during the past century. Drastic, widespread glacier recession is documented by repeat photography of some of the earliest glacier images from southern South America. Linear trends in regionally-averaged annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation records indicate significant warming and decreasing precipitation over the 1912-2002 interval. A climatic index is developed, based on winter precipitation and summer temperature records, that mimics glacier mass balance relationships and shows a strong negative trend which agrees with the drastic glacier recession shown by the photographic comparisons. Short positive periods of this climatic index broadly correspond with known evidence of glacier advances in the region. Regionally-averaged mean annual streamflow records east of the mountains were used in an independent verification check of the climatic series used in this study. This regional runoff record shows a strong negative trend, remarkable similarities with the climatic index, and highly significant positive (negative) correlations with the regional precipitation (temperature) series. This highlights the existence of a strong, regionally coherent hydroclimatic signal across this region and supports the utility of these records as environmental indicators for northwestern Patagonia between ca. 38 degrees and 45 degrees. Given the significant socio-economic importance of rivers and glaciers in this area, further research is needed to evaluate the full range of natural hydroclimate variability and improve understanding of potential impacts of the future warmer and drier climates projected for this region. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",20th-century glacier recession and regional hydroclimatic changes in northwestern Patagonia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+2335224,"The present study is to evaluate trophic status and its limiting factors in the Renuka Lake, using surface water samples. The water of the lake is found to be slightly alkaline with pH8.33-8.70 (avg. 8.61 +/- 0.1). The turbidity 4.63-6.62 NTU (avg. 5.48 +/- 0.63 NTU) indicated low level of clarity in the lake. The Carlson's index based on the Secchi disc transparency (SD), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), and total phosphorus (TP) has indicated that the Renuka Lake is turned hyper-eutrophic in status. The correlation coefficient has indicated that most parameters in the lake are contributed by different sources. Factor-1 marked 26.40% variance, which may be due to higher impact of rock weathering than the anthropogenic activities, whereas 18.56% variance shown by factor-2 may be due to natural and anthropogenic activities. However, factor-3 (14.38% variance) inferred that the higher contribution of Chl-a, pH, TDS, NH4+, NO3-, salinity, and SO42- is due to major impacts of the anthropogenic activities. The inverse distance weighting method has indicated spatial interpolation and area of influence of different parameters in the lake. The nutrient (TP) limited large sized algae as well as phosphorus is considered as a major limiting factor for increasing productivity and trophic state index. The present study has inferred that the nutrient enrichment should be controlled to restore the Renuka Lake, owing to its social and ecological significances.","Evaluation of trophic status and its limiting factors in the Renuka Lake of Lesser Himalaya, India",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+443767,"Wildfire is a common natural disturbance that can influence stream ecosystems. Of particular concern are increases in water temperature during and following fires, but studies of these phenomena are uncommon. We examined effects of wildfires in 2000 on maximum water temperature for a suite of second- to fourth-order streams with a range of burn severities in the Bitterroot River basin, Montana. Despite many sites burning at high severity, there were no apparent increases in maximum water temperature during the fires. One month after fire and in the subsequent year, increases in maximum water temperatures at sites within burns were 1.4-2.2 degrees C greater than those at reference sites, with the greatest differences in July and August. Maximum temperature changes at sites >1.7 km downstream from burns did not differ from those at reference sites. Seven years after the fires, there was no evidence that maximum stream temperatures were returning to pre-fire norms. Temperature increases in these relatively large streams are likely to be long-lasting and exacerbated by climate change. These combined effects may alter the distribution of thermally sensitive aquatic species.","Effects of wildfire on stream temperatures in the Bitterroot River Basin, Montana",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+121704,"The sensitivity of glaciers to climatic change is key information in assessing the response and sea-level implications of projected future warming. New Zealand glaciers are important globally as an example of how maritime glaciers will contribute to sea-level rise. A spatially distributed energy-balance model is applied to Brewster Glacier, New Zealand, in order to calculate glacier mass balance, run-off and sensitivity to climate change. The model successfully simulates four annual mass-balance cycles. Close to half (52%) of the energy available for melt on the glacier is supplied by turbulent heat fluxes, with radiation less important, except during the winter. Model sensitivity to temperature change is one of the largest reported on Earth, at -2.0 m w.e. a(-1)degrees C-1. In contrast, a 50% change in precipitation is required to offset the mass-balance change resulting from a 1 degrees C temperature change. Meltwater runoff sensitivity is also very high, increasing 60% with a 1 degrees C warming. The extreme sensitivity of mass balance to temperature change suggests that significant ice loss will occur with even moderate climate warming.",Climate sensitivity of a high-precipitation glacier in New Zealand,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+402870,"Large recent fires in the western U. S. have contributed to a perception that fire exclusion has caused an unprecedented occurrence of uncharacteristically severe fires, particularly in lower elevation dry pine forests. In the absence of long-term fire severity records, it is unknown how short-term trends compare to fire severity prior to 20th century fire exclusion. This study compares historical (i.e. pre-1920) fire severity with observed modern fire severity and modeled potential fire behavior across 564,413 ha of montane forests of the Colorado Front Range. We used forest structure and tree-ring fire history to characterize fire severity at 232 sites and then modeled historical fire-severity across the entire study area using biophysical variables. Eighteen (7.8%) sites were characterized by low-severity fires and 214 (92.2%) by mixed-severity fires (i.e. including moderate-or high-severity fires). Difference in area of historical versus observed low-severity fire within nine recent (post-1999) large fire perimeters was greatest in lower montane forests. Only 16% of the study area recorded a shift from historical low severity to a higher potential for crown fire today. An historical fire regime of more frequent and low-severity fires at low elevations (<2260 m) supports a convergence of management goals of ecological restoration and fire hazard mitigation in those habitats. In contrast, at higher elevations mixed-severity fires were predominant historically and continue to be so today. Thinning treatments at higher elevations of the montane zone will not return the fire regime to an historic low-severity regime, and are of questionable effectiveness in preventing severe wildfires. Based on present-day fuels, predicted fire behavior under extreme fire weather continues to indicate a mixed-severity fire regime throughout most of the montane forest zone. Recent large wildfires in the Front Range are not fundamentally different from similar events that occurred historically under extreme weather conditions.","Historical, Observed, and Modeled Wildfire Severity in Montane Forests of the Colorado Front Range",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3953213,"Oxygen-isotope ratio measurements are presented for the planktonic species Globigerinoides ruber collected from shallow-water, upper-slope sediments from Holes 820A and 820B in 280 m of water, on the seaward edge of the Great Barrier Reef. Correlation of the Site 820 isotope curve with deep-sea reference curves of the Pacific Ocean (Core V28-238, Hole 677A, Hole 607A) permits the definition of isotope stages 1 to 19 in the top 145 m of Holes 820A and 820B. However, paleontological data indicate that stages 4 and 7 might be missing and that two hiatuses occur at a depth of 8.05 to 12.1 and 34.55 to 35.8 mbsf. Using deep-sea Hole 677A as a reference for ice-volume variations, we determine the difference in isotopic signature between it and Site 820. We propose that this difference is a regional signal representing a progressive 4°C increase in surface-water temperature at Site 820. -from Authors","The stable oxygen isotope signal in shallow-water, upper-slope sediments off the Great Barrier Reef (Hole 820A)",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1307390,"Abrupt ecological changes are, by definition, those that occur over short periods of time relative to typical rates of change for a given ecosystem. The potential for such changes is growing due to anthropogenic pressures, which challenges the resilience of societies and ecosystems. Abrupt ecological changes are difficult to diagnose because they can arise from a variety of circumstances, including rapid changes in external drivers (e.g., climate, or resource extraction), nonlinear responses to gradual changes in drivers, and interactions among multiple drivers and disturbances. We synthesize strategies for identifying causes of abrupt ecological change and highlight instances where abrupt changes are likely. Diagnosing abrupt changes and inferring causation are increasingly important as society seek to adapt to rapid, multifaceted environmental changes.",Abrupt Change in Ecological Systems: Inference and Diagnosis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1516008,"In this study, a novel data fusion approach was used to monitor the water-body extent in a tropical wetland (Lake Sentarum, Indonesia). Monitoring is required in the region to support the conservation of water resources and biodiversity. The developed approach, random forest database unmixing (RFDBUX), makes use of pixel-based random forest regression to overcome the limitations of the existing lookup-table-based approach (DBUX). The RFDBUX approach with passive microwave data (AMSR2) and active microwave data (PALSAR-2) was used from 2012 to 2017 in order to obtain PALSAR-2-like images with a 100 m spatial resolution and three-day temporal resolution. In addition, a thresholding approach for the obtained PALSAR-2-like backscatter coefficient images provided water body extent maps. The validation revealed that the spatial patterns of the images predicted by RFDBUX are consistent with the original PALSAR-2 backscatter coefficient images (r = 0.94, RMSE = 1.04 in average), and that the temporal pattern of the predicted water body extent can track the wetland dynamics. The PALSAR-2-like images should be a useful basis for further investigation of the hydrological/climatological features of the site, and the proposed approach appears to have the potential for application in other tropical regions worldwide.",Monitoring of an Indonesian Tropical Wetland by Machine Learning-Based Data Fusion of Passive and Active Microwave Sensors,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+67438,"The catchments in the Loess Plateau, in China's middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin, experienced unprecedented land use changes in the last 50years as a result of large-scale soil conservation measure to control soil erosion. The climate of the region also exhibited some levels of change with decreased precipitation and increased temperature. This study combined the time-trend analysis method with a sensitivity-based approach and found that annual streamflow in the Loess Plateau decreased significantly since the 1950s and surface runoff trends appear to dominate the streamflow trends in most of the catchments. Annual baseflow exhibited mostly downward trends, but significant upward trends were also observed in 3 out of 38 gauging stations. Mean annual streamflow during 1979-2010 decreased by up to 65% across the catchments compared with the period of 1957-1978, indicating significant changes in the hydrological regime of the Loess Plateau. It is estimated that 70% of the streamflow reduction can be attributed to land use change, while the remaining 30% is associated with climate variability. Land use change because of the soil conservation measures and reduction in precipitation are the key drivers for the observed streamflow trends. These findings are consistent with results of previous studies for the region and appear to be reasonable given the accelerated level of the soil conservation measures implemented since the late 1970s. Changes in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, as indicated by variations in El Nino-Southern Oscillation and phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, appear to have also affected the annual streamflow trends. The framework described in this study shows promising results for quantifying the effects of land use change and climate variability on mean annual streamflow of catchments within the Loess Plateau. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Long-term streamflow trends in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin: detecting drivers of change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2356585,"Within the twilight of the oceanic mesopelagic realm, 200-1000 m below sea level, are potentially vast resources of fish. Collectively, these mesopelagic fishes are the most abundant vertebrates on Earth, and this global fish community plays a vital role in the function of oceanic ecosystems. The biomass of these fishes has recently been estimated using acoustic survey methods, which rely on echosounder-generated signals being reflected from gas-filled swimbladders and detected by transducers on vessels. Here, we use X-ray computed tomography scans to demonstrate that several of the most abundant species of mesopelagic fish in the Southern Ocean lack gas-filled swimbladders. We also show using catch data from survey trawls that the fish community switches from fish possessing gas-filled swimbladders to those lacking swimbladders as latitude increases towards the Antarctic continent. Thus, the acoustic surveys that repeatedly show a decrease in mesopelagic fish biomass towards polar environments systematically overlook a large proportion of fish species that dominate polar seas. Importantly, this includes lanternfish species that are key prey items for top predators in the region, including king penguins and elephant seals. This latitudinal community switch, from gas to non-gas dominance, has considerable implications for acoustic biomass estimation, ecosystem modelling and long-term monitoring of species at risk from climate change and potential exploitation.",Swimbladder morphology masks Southern Ocean mesopelagic fish biomass,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+671314,"Output from a coupled atmosphere-ocean model forced by the IS92a greenhouse gas scenario was used to investigate the feedback between climate change and the oceanic uptake of CO2. To improve the climate simulation, we used Gent and co-workers eddy parameterization in the ocean and a prognostic equation for export production from the upper ocean. For the period of 1850 to 2100, the change in the oceanic uptake of CO2 with climate was separated into 3 feedbacks. (i) Climate change warmed the sea-surface temperature which increased the partial pressure of CO2 in the surface ocean and reduced the accumulated ocean uptake by 48 Gt C. (ii) Climate change reduced meridional overturning and convective mixing and increased density stratification in high latitudes which slowed the transport of anthropogenic CO2 into the ocean interior and reduced the cumulative ocean CO2 uptake by 41 Gt C, (iii) Climate change altered ""natural"" cycling of carbon in the ocean which increased the cumulative ocean CO2 uptake by 33 Gt C. The change in natural carbon cycling with climate change was dominated by 2 opposing factors. First, the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean decreased which reduced the export of organic matter (by 15% by year 2100) and produced a net CO2 flux out of the ocean. However, associated with the reduced nutrient supply was the reduction in the supply of dissolved inorganic carbon to the upper ocean, which produced net CO2 flux into the ocean. For our model, the latter effect dominated. By the year 2100, the combinations of these 3 climate change feedbacks resulted in a decrease in the cumulative oceanic CO2 uptake of 56 Gt C or 14% of the 402 Gt C of oceanic CO2 uptake predicted by a run with no climate change. Our total reduction in oceanic CO2 uptake with climate change for the 1850 to 2100 period was similar to the 58 Gt C reduction in oceanic CO2 uptake predicted by Sarmiento and Le Quere. However, our consistency with this previous estimate is misleading. By including the Cent and co-workers eddy parameterization in the ocean, we reduced the positive feedback between climate change and the oceanic uptake of CO2 from 169 to 89 Gt C (80 Gt C change). This reduction reflects a decrease in both sea surface warming and anthropogenic forcing feedbacks. By using a prognostic parameterization of export production, we reduced the negative feedback response of the natural carbon cycle to climate change from 111 to 33 Gt C (78 Gt C). These 2 large offsetting changes in the ocean response to climate change produced only a net change of 2 Gt C, This resulted in a net reduction in oceanic uptake of 2 Ct C from the previous study.",Climate change feedback on the future oceanic CO2 uptake,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+746506,"This study applies ArcGIS to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of cultural sites in the Ili River Valley in northwestern China. It explores relationships between the sites' spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics, human history, and the natural environment. The results indicate that the numbers and proportions of the sites, and the frequency of their occurrence, exhibited an inverted V-shaped change trend during six historical periods. The ""high in the east and low in the west"" spatial distribution pattern of the first three periods shifted to the one the ""high in the west and low in the east"" during the latter three periods, demonstrating a change in the spatial center of gravity of human activities. The sites were mainly distributed on slopes of grades 1-5, with their proportions increasing from 75% during the Spring and Autumn Period (770 BC-476 BC)-Qin Dynasty (221 BC-207 BC) to 93.75% during the Qing Dynasty-Modern period. The concentrated distribution of site elevations shifted from grades 4-8 during the Spring and Autumn Period-Qin Dynasty, and the Western Han (206 BC-8)-Southern and Northern Dynasties (420-589), to grades 1-4 during the latter three periods. The number of sites showed a shifting trend from high-elevation mountains and hills to low-elevation plains, and from high slopes to low slopes. In particular, the sites exhibited a special ""moist"" evolutionary pattern of migration from middle and upstream areas to downstream areas, as opposed to the migration pattern of sites located in typical arid areas. The study also considered factors influencing the distribution and spatiotemporal evolution of cultural sites, notably, human factors and natural factors.",Spatiotemporal characteristics of cultural sites and their driving forces in the Ili River Valley during historical periods,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3203946,"Background: There is limited evidence on the relationship between temperature and cardiovascular mortality in middle and low-income countries, particularly in Latin America. In this study, we investigated the total effect of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in 27 Brazilian cities, and the effect modification by geographic, socioeconomic, demographic and infrastructure characteristics within cities. Methods: In the city-specific analysis, we used time-series analyses to estimate the relationship between mean temperature and daily cardiovascular mortality using quasi-Poisson generalized linear models combined with distributed lag non-linear models. In the second stage, a meta-analysis was used to pool the effects of temperature on cardiovascular mortality for Brazil and its five regions (Central-West, North, Northeast, South, and Southeast). We used a meta-regression to examine the effect modification of city-specific geographic, socioeconomic, demographic and infrastructure-related variables. Results: The risks associated with temperature varied across the locations. Higher cardiovascular mortality was associated with low and high temperatures in most of the cities, Brazil and the Central-West, North, South, and Southeast regions. The overall relative risk (RR) for Brazil was 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.17-1.35) for the 1st percentile of temperature and 1.07 (95% CI: 1.01-1.13) for the 99th percentile of temperature versus the 79th percentile (27.7 degrees C), where RR was lowest. The temperature range was the variable that best explained the variation in effects among the cities, with greater effects in locations having a broader range. Conclusions: The results indicate effects of low and high temperatures on the risk of cardiovascular mortality in most of Brazil's capital cities, besides a pooled effect for Brazil and the Central-West, North, South, and Southeast regions. These findings can help inform public policies addressing the health impact of temperature extremes, especially in the context of climate change. (c) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",The effect of ambient temperature on cardiovascular mortality in 27 Brazilian cities,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+37366,"In the Arkansas River Basin in southeastern Colorado, surface irrigation provides most of the water required for agriculture. Consequently, the region's future could be significantly affected if climate change impacts the amount of water available for irrigation. A methodology to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in the region is described. The Integrated Decision Support Consumptive Use model, which accounts for spatial and temporal variability in evapotranspiration and precipitation, is used in conjunction with two climate scenarios from the Vegetation-Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project. The two scenarios were extracted and scaled down from two general circulation models (GCMs), the HAD from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and the CCC from the Canadian Climate Centre. The results show significant changes in the water demands of crops due to climate change. The HAD and CCC climate change scenarios both predict an increase in water demand. However, the projections of the two GCMs concerning the water available for irrigation differ significantly, reflecting the large degree of uncertainty concerning what the future impacts of climate change might be in the study region. As new or updated predictions become available, the methodology described here can be used to estimate the impacts of climate change.",High resolution modeling of the regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2318370,"As a first step in developing classification procedures for remotely acquired hyperspectral mapping of mangrove canopies, we conducted a laboratory study of mangrove leaf spectral reflectance at a study site on the Caribbean coast of Panama, where the mangrove forest canopy is dominated by Avicennia germinans, Laguncularia racemosa, and Rhizophora mangle. Using a high-resolution spectrometer, we measured the reflectance of leaves collected from replicate trees of three mangrove species growing in productive and physiologically stressful habitats. The reflectance data were analysed in the following ways. First, a one-way ANOVA was performed to identify bands that exhibited significant differences (P value0.01) in the mean reflectance across tree species. The selected bands then formed the basis for a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) that classified the three types of mangrove leaves. The contribution of each narrow band to the classification was assessed by the absolute value of standardised coefficients associated with each discriminant function. Finally, to investigate the capability of hyperspectral data to diagnose the stress condition across the three mangrove species, four narrow band ratios (R 695/R 420, R 605/R 760, R 695/R 760, and R 710/R 760 where R 695 represents reflectance at wavelength of 695nm, and so on) were calculated and compared between stressed and non-stressed tree leaves using ANOVA. Results indicate a good discrimination was achieved with an average kappa value of 0.9. Wavebands at 780, 790, 800, 1480, 1530, and 1550nm were identified as the most useful bands for mangrove species classification. At least one of the four reflectance ratio indices proved useful in detecting stress associated with any of the three mangrove species. Overall, hyperspectral data appear to have great potential for discriminating mangrove canopies of differing species composition and for detecting stress in mangrove vegetation.",Distinguishing mangrove species with laboratory measurements of hyperspectral leaf reflectance,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1288961,"Plant growth regulators (PGRs) are natural hormones and synthetic hormone analogues. Types of PGRs reviewed in this paper include auxins, gibberellins, cytokinins, ethylene, abscisic acid, brassinosteroids and jasmonates. At low concentrations, PGRs have the capacity to influence cell division, cell expansion, and cell structure and function, in addition to mediating environmental stress. The direct application to plant roots, shoots, leaves, buds and flowers has been shown to increase resilience to abiotic and biotic stress, break seed dormancy, improve drought tolerance and water use efficiency, improve temperature tolerance, improve nitrogen use efficiency, promote shoot elongation and generation, increase shoot and root mass, stimulate root growth and lateral root development, and promote photosynthesis. PGR products are commonly used throughout agriculture, viticulture, and horticulture to improve plant growth and crop yield under non-ideal soil and environmental conditions. PGR products have yet to be trialed and registered for reclamation purposes in Canada. Their use may improve reclamation success by enhancing growth of slow-growing native plants and transplanted seedlings and cuttings; promoting the redevelopment of soil bacterial communities (including rhizobacteria); enhancing plant growth under environmentally stressful conditions; and, increasing adaptation and resiliency during climate change. There are significant opportunities for seed development, plant propagation and bioengineering in North America for both greenhouse-based and field-based applications. If successful, PGR use on native plants may improve the ecological function of disturbed lands by reducing the timeframe for reclamation and facilitating the achievement of reclamation end goals.",Plant growth regulators for enhancing revegetation success in reclamation: A review,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1894833,"Examination of the abundance of plant species occurring in limestone terrain at Mullagh More, in the Burren, Co. Clare, indicates that 'shade' plants are not restricted to microenvironmental conditions with reduced light levels (grikes), but are also common in exposed situations. Investigations of three species found in exposed locations (Teucrium scorodonia L., Mycelis muralis L. Dumort. and Corrylus avellana L.) indicate that they all have a limited capacity to acclimate their maximum photosynthetic rate (Pm) to the prevailing light climate and that as much as 70% of the incident irradiance is not utilised in photosynthesis. Diurnal reductions in stomatal conductance (Gs) and maximum photosynthetic rate (Pm), were observed with all three species. These changes in Pm and G s were associated with concomitant decreases in shoot water potential (Ψs) and increases in leaf-air vapour pressure deficit (VPD), suggesting that water availability could be an important factor even under the prevailing mild climatic conditions. This was supported by parallel species-specific declines in the ratio of variable (Fv) to maximum (Fm) fluorescence (Fv/Fm) for a larger number of species found in these limestone habitats. Shoot-water status was also closely coupled to short-term wetting and drying episodes caused by periodic rainfall events. On the basis of this evidence, water limitation is likely to be a common and overriding ecological determinant in this limestone environment, despite the mild climatic conditions. Also, under these environmental conditions a limited acclimatory capacity does not preclude an ability to persist in exposed situations.",Survival on the exposed limestone pavement in the burren: Photosynthesis and water relations of three co-occurring plant species,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+556835,"Recent climatic warming has resulted in pronounced environmental changes in the Arctic, including shrub cover expansion and sea ice shrinkage. These changes foreshadow more dramatic impacts that will occur if the warming trend continues. Among the major challenges in anticipating these impacts are ""surprises"" stemming from changes in system components that have remained relatively stable in the historic record. Tundra burning is potentially one such component. Here we report paleoecological evidence showing that recent tundra burning is unprecedented in the central Alaskan Arctic within the last 5000 years. Analysis of lake sediment cores reveals peak values of charcoal accumulation corresponding to the Anaktuvuk River Fire in 2007, with no evidence of other fire events throughout the past five millennia in that area. Atmospheric reanalysis suggests that the fire was favored by exceptionally warm and dry weather conditions in summer and early autumn. Boosted regression tree modeling shows that such conditions also explain 95% of the interannual variability in tundra area burned throughout Alaska over the past 60 years and that the response of tundra burning to climatic warming is nonlinear. These results contribute to an emerging body of evidence suggesting that tundra ecosystems can burn more frequently under suitable climatic and fuel conditions. The Anaktuvuk River Fire coincides with extreme sea ice retreat, and tundra area burned in Alaska is moderately correlated with sea ice extent from 1979 to 2009 (r = -0.43, p (-) 0.02). Recurrences of large tundra fires as a result of sea ice disappearance may represent a novel manifestation of coupled marine-terrestrial responses to climatic warming.",Tundra burning in Alaska: Linkages to climatic change and sea ice retreat,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0
+18654,"Hydroclimatic variability manifests as abrupt shifts, trends, runs, and recurrent cyclical phenomena, collectively referred to as components. In this article, we tested for the presence and magnitude of each component in the Niger Basin (West Africa), using the 0.5 degrees by 0.5 degrees gridded annual rainfall and temperature data produced by the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, UK, for the period 1901-2006. The streamflow data was also analysed for different sub-basins of the Niger Basin. Abrupt shifts were tested using a Bayesian and nonparametric approach. Trends were analysed using the Mann-Kendall trend test. Runs were extracted for dry, neutral, and wet conditions, simulated 1000 times based on the skew normal distribution, and used to investigate various run characteristics. Cyclical behaviour was investigated using continuous wavelet analysis. The results show that an abrupt change point occurred in 1969 in the rainfall and streamflow (but not temperature) time series in all subwatersheds of the Niger Basin. The magnitude of the shift in the mean rainfall varied between 16 and 24%. The temperature time series exhibit strong positive trends in all watersheds. Post change point, the rainfall and streamflow time series show positive, though statistically non-significant trends at =0.1. In contrast, disregarding the change point, all subwatersheds show significant negative trends at =0.05 and the maximum run lengths are about 4years long for both dry and wet conditions. Finally, wavelet analysis showed that both rainfall and streamflow in the Niger Basin fluctuate on cycles that are predominantly 2-4years long, with a few occurrences in the 6-8years range. Wavelet activity diminished noticeably when a series appeared strongly dominated by trends. The results provide a more comprehensive view of climatic variability than would be obtained from only one or a few components.",Exploring temporal hydroclimatic variability in the Niger Basin (1901-2006) using observed and gridded data,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1367195,"The global climate during 1999 was impacted by Pacific cold episode (La Nina) conditions throughout the year, which resulted in regional precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns across the Pacific Ocean and the Americas that are generally consistent with those observed during past cold episodes. The primary La Nina-related precipitation anomalies included 1) increased rainfall across Indonesia, and a nearly complete disappearance of rainfall across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific; 2) above-normal rains across northwestern and northern Australia; 3) increased monsoon rains across the Sahel region of western Africa; 4) above-average rains over southeastern Africa, 5) above-average rains over the Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America, and 6) below-average rains in southeastern South America. The La Nina also contributed to persistent cyclonic circulation anomalies in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which Banked the area of suppressed convective activity over the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific. In the Northern Hemisphere this anomaly feature contributed to a pronounced westward retraction of the wintertime East Asian jet stream, which subsequently impacted precipitation and storm patterns across the eastern North Pacific and western North America. The La Nina-related pattern of tropical rainfall also contributed to a very persistent pattern of anticyclonic circulation anomalies in the middle latitude of both hemispheres, extending from the eastern Pacific across the Atlantic and Africa eastward to Australasia. This anomaly pattern was associated with an active Atlantic hurricane season, an inactive eastern North Pacific hurricane season, above-average rains in the African Sahel, and an overall amplification of the entire southeast Asian summer monsoon complex. The active 1999 North Atlantic hurricane season featured 12 named storms, 8 of which became hurricanes, and 5 of which became intense hurricanes. The peak of activity during mid-August-October was accompanied by low vertical wind shear across the central and western Atlantic, along with both a favorable structure and location of the African easterly jet. In contrast, only 9 tropical storms formed over the eastern North Pacific during the year, making it one of the most inactive years for that region in the historical record. This relative inactivity was linked to a persistent pattern of high vertical wind shear that covered much of the main development region of the eastern North Pacific. Other regional aspects of the short-term climate included: 1) above-average wintertime precipitation and increased storminess in the Pacific Northwest, United States; 2) above-average monsoonal rainfall across the southwestern United States; 3) drought over the northeastern quadrant of the United States during April-mid-August; 4) hurricane-related flooding in the Carolinas during September; 5) drought over the south-central United States during July-November; 6) below-average rainfall in the Hawaiian Islands throughout the year, with long-term dryness affecting some parts of the islands since October 1997; 7) a continuation of long-term drought conditions in southeastern Australia, with most of Victoria experiencing below-average rainfall since late 1996; and 8) above-average rainfall in central China during April-August. Global annual mean surface temperatures during 1999 for land and marine areas were 0.41 degrees C above the 1880-1998 long-term mean, making it the fifth warmest year in the record. However, significant cooling was evident in the Tropics during 1999 in association with a continuation of La Nina conditions. In contrast, temperatures in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere extratropics were the second wannest in the historical record during 1999, and only slightly below the record 1998 anomalies. The areal extent of the Antarctic ozone hole remained near record levels during 1999. The ozone hole also lasted longer than has been observed in past years.",Climate assessment for 1999,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+746222,"Aim The aim of this study was to assess the effect of Holocene fire activity and drought on the mesic forests of the Upper Beni and the extent of ecotone migration in south-western Amazonia during the mid-Holocene. An additional goal was to address the hypothesis of Amazonia as a manufactured landscape prior to the arrival of European colonizers in the New World in ad 1492. Location Lakes Chalalan and Santa Rosa, Upper Beni, Bolivian Amazon. Methods Holocene vegetation and fire activity were reconstructed based on pollen and microcharcoal records from sediments of lakes Chalalan and Santa Rosa. Chronologies were based on accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon analyses, and vegetation changes were summarized using detrended correspondence analysis. The normalized difference vegetation index was used to classify and determine the extent of the modern savannaforest ecotone using MODIS satellite image data. Results Mesic evergreen forests persisted in the Upper Beni throughout the Holocene. Fire was frequent during the early and mid-Holocene and temporally consistent in both records. Ordination of pollen data showed an increase in forest change during the late Holocene when fire activity was asynchronous in the two records. Main conclusions The Upper Beni sites were not reached by expanding savannas during periods of major environmental change, suggesting forest resilience and a degree of ecotone stability. We associated the largest observed change in these forests with late Holocene fires that were most probably ignited by humans. We found little evidence supporting widespread pre-1491 cultural landscapes.","Holocene fires, forest stability and human occupation in south-western Amazonia",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+108710,"Arctic permafrost coasts are sensitive to changing climate. The lengthening open water season and the increasing open water area are likely to induce greater erosion and threaten community and industry infrastructure as well as dramatically change nutrient pathways in the near-shore zone. The shallow, mediterranean Arctic Ocean is likely to be strongly affected by changes in currently poorly observed arctic coastal dynamics. We present a geomorphological classification scheme for the arctic coast, with 101,447 km of coastline in 1,315 segments. The average rate of erosion for the arctic coast is 0.5 m year(-1) with high local and regional variability. Highest rates are observed in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Beaufort Seas. Strong spatial variability in associated database bluff height, ground carbon and ice content, and coastline movement highlights the need to estimate the relative importance of shifting coastal fluxes to the Arctic Ocean at multiple spatial scales.",The Arctic Coastal Dynamics Database: A New Classification Scheme and Statistics on Arctic Permafrost Coastlines,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1323011,"Intrashell oxygen and carbon stable isotope profiles ( delta(18)O, delta(13)C) were established for Mesodesma donacium shells from the preceramic archaeological site, Quebrada de los Burros in coastal southern Peru, to reconstruct the sea- surface temperature ( SST) variations and to estimate changes of the El Nino- Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) interannual variability from the early Holocene to the present. Very strong oxygen isotopic excursions attributed to El Nino events are evident in three shells dated between 9 and 7.9 ka. This indicates that short and strong warm events were breaking the mean cooler surface conditions ( 2 - 3degreesC cooler compared with today SSTs) in relation with an intense upwelling system. At 4.8 ka, slightly lower mean SST ( cooler than today by 0.7degreesC) and a reduced seasonality confirms the previous hypothesis of a weak ENSO variability at this period.",Strong El Nino events during the early Holocene: stable isotope evidence from Peruvian sea shells,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+161057,"Climate warming in the Swedish sub-Arctic since 2000 has reached a level at which statistical analysis shows for the first time that current warming has exceeded that in the late 1930' s and early 1940' s, and has significantly crossed the 0 degrees C mean annual temperature threshold which causes many cryospheric and ecological impacts. The accelerating temperature increase trend has driven similar trends in the century-long increase in snow thickness, loss of lake ice, increases in active layer thickness, lake water TOC (total organic carbon) concentrations and the assemblages of diatoms, and changes in tree-line location and plant community structure. Some of these impacts were not evident in the first warm period of the 20th Century. Changes in climate are associated with reduced temperature variability, particularly loss of cold winters and cool summers, and an increase in extreme precipitation events that cause mountain slope instability and infrastructure failure. The long term records of multiple, local environmental factors compiled here for the first time provide detailed information for adaptation strategy development while dramatic changes in an environment particularly vulnerable to climate change highlight the need to adopt global mitigation strategies. Citation: Callaghan, T. V., F. Bergholm, T. R. Christensen, C. Jonasson, U. Kokfelt, and M. Johansson (2010), A new climate era in the sub-Arctic: Accelerating climate changes and multiple impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14705, doi:10.1029/2009GL042064.",A new climate era in the sub-Arctic: Accelerating climate changes and multiple impacts,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1506178,"Dendrochronological methods have been in use for more than 100 years, providing us a record of climate, human activities (archaeology), floods, fire, mudslides and other geological and biological events. More recently, dendrochemisty has been used to assess the time frames of the onset and existence of environmental contamination. This article assesses the scientific status of dendrochronology and dendrochemistry with respect to the admissibility of expert testimony and Daubert legal criteria. The purpose of this article is to identify the crucial scientific aspects of dendrochronology and dendrochemistry that address the Daubert criteria and Rule 702 as amended in 2000. To clarify terminology, dendrochronology is the precise and reliable assignment of the year of formation of tree rings. Dendroecology is the use of dendrochronology to understand ecological and environmental processes (Schweingruber, 1996). Dendrochemistry is a subdiscipline of dendrochronology that analyzes and interprets the wood chemistry of precisely dated tree rings. Forensic dendrochemistry applies dendrochemistry to resolve environmental disputes and generally deal with questions regarding the timing and/or the source of environmental incidents. One significant application of forensic dendrochemistry to expert testimony is to address issues of anthropogenic contamination. Forensic dendroecology is a similar term to forensic dendrochemistry, but forensic dendrochemistry will be used in this discussion as the latter term emphasizes the use of chemical detection methods. Because dendrochemistry is based on the foundation of dendrochronology, both the former specialty and the latter broader discipline will be discussed.",Use of Dendrochronology and Dendrochemistry in Environmental Forensics: Does It Meet the Daubert Criteria?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+568386,"Huge areas of the Russian forests suffer from insufficient forest management. A scenario has been developed for an improved management program that would be implemented over the next 40 years. Possible options have been aggregated into three interlinked groups: increase in forest productivity through improvement of the forest conditions and the structure of the Forest Fund, decrease of carbon release by mitigation of disturbance regimes, and improvement of landscape management. One prerequisite in developing this scenario was that the cost of sequestering one ton of carbon should not exceed US$3 (1992 dollar value). In this article a simple model is described to illustrate the following possibilities for increased carbon fixation by improved forest management: large-scale reforestation and afforestation, replacement of stands with low productivity and replacement of so called soft deciduous species and ''climax'' stands, and implementation of rational silviculture (thinning). The results indicate a potential for an increase in carbon fixation in Russian forest ecosystems of 24.4 Pg over 100 years, after the first year that the actions discussed are implemented. The net sink of carbon was determined to be 16.5 Pg in the ''low'' estimate and 42.5 Pg in the ''high'' estimate. There are, however, many uncertainties in the data and there are difficulties in adequately modeling the possibilities for implementation under current conditions in Russia. In spite of these uncertainties, we conclude that there is great potential for economically justified increased carbon fixation through improved forest management in Russia.",Possibilities for increased carbon sequestration through the implementation of rational forest management in Russia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3286983,"Flooding is a function of hydrologic, climatologic, and land use characteristics. However, the relative contribution of these factors to flood risk over the long-term is uncertain. In response to this knowledge gap, this study quantifies how urbanization and climatological trends influenced flooding in the greater Houston region during Hurricane Harvey. The region-characterized by extreme precipitation events, low topographic relief, and clay-dominated soils-is naturally flood prone, but it is also one of the fastest growing urban areas in the United States. This rapid growth has contributed to increased runoff volumes and rates in areas where anthropogenic climate changes has also been shown to be contributing to extreme precipitation. To disentangle the relative contributions of urban development and climatic changes on flooding during Hurricane Harvey, we simulate catchment response using a spatially-distributed hydrologic model under 1900 and 2017 conditions. This approach provides insight into how timing, volume, and peak discharge in response to Harvey-like events have evolved over more than a century. Results suggest that over the past century, urban development and climate change have had a large impact on peak discharge at stream gauges in the Houston region, where development alone has increased peak discharges by 54% (28%) and climate change has increased peak discharge by about 20% (3%). When combined, urban development and climate change nearly doubled peak discharge (84% 35%) in the Houston area during Harvey compared to a similar event in 1900, suggesting that land use change has magnified the effects of climate change on catchment response. The findings support a precautionary approach to flood risk management that explicitly considers how current land use decisions may impact future conditions under varying climate trends, particularly in low-lying coastal cities.",Disentangling the impacts of human and environmental change on catchment response during Hurricane Harvey,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3956130,"The fibrous region of myosin (myosin rod) is an α-helical, two-stranded coiled-coil made up of identical chains of nearly 1000 residues. Myosin from rabbit skeletal muscle has two tryptophans per chain located at identical hydrophobic d sites in the heptad repeat that forms the basis for hydrophobic dimerization. The fluorescence excitation and emission spectra of rod in high salt buffer (where the rod exists as a coiled-coil monomer) at 20°C are red- and blue-shifted, respectively, from the comparable spectra of N-acetyl-tryptophanamide or l-tryptophan. These spectral shifts, as well as red-shifts in the emission spectra induced by excitation on the red edge of the absorption or by increases in temperature, indicate that (on average) the tryptophans are partially exposed to aqueous solvent yet in contact with the protein matrix. The tryptophan intensity decays show an unusual bimodal distribution; the major species has a discrete lifetime of about 5.2 ns while the minor species exhibits a complex decay with a broad (3.4 ns full width at half maximum) Gaussian distribution of lifetimes centered around 1.3 ns. The long lifetime species has a blue-shifted excitation and red-shifted emission characteristic of the indole chromophore in a polar (probably aqueous) environment while the short lifetime species has the spectral parameters characteristic of indole in a non-polar environment. Although assignment of these lifetime species to particular tryptophans in the rod is problematic, this study indicates that the coiled-coil interface presents a complex heterogeneous environment that may undergo rapid conformational mobility. © 1994.",Tryptophan photophysics in rabbit skeletal myosin rod,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+777910,"Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western United States. Given this increase, there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels treatments (including wildfire), fire weather, vegetation, and water balance on fire-severity in the Rim Fire of 2013. We did this at three different spatial scales to investigate whether the influences on fire severity changed across scales. Both fuels treatments and previous low to moderate-severity wildfire reduced the prevalence of high-severity fire. In general, areas without recent fuels treatments and areas that previously burned at high severity tended to have a greater proportion of high-severity fire in the Rim Fire. Areas treated with prescribed fire, especially when combined with thinning, had the lowest proportions of high severity. The proportion of the landscape burned at high severity was most strongly influenced by fire weather and proportional area previously treated for fuels or burned by low to moderate severity wildfire. The proportion treated needed to effectively reduce the amount of high severity fire varied by spatial scale of analysis, with smaller spatial scales requiring a greater proportion treated to see an effect on fire severity. When moderate and high-severity fire encountered a previously treated area, fire severity was significantly reduced in the treated area relative to the adjacent untreated area. Our results show that fuels treatments and low to moderate-severity wildfire can reduce fire severity in a subsequent wildfire, even when burning under fire growth conditions. These results serve as further evidence that both fuels treatments and lower severity wildfire can increase forest resilience.",Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+685995,"Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.",Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+455347,"Understanding reasons for biodiversity loss is essential for developing conservation and management strategies and is becoming increasingly urgent with climate change. Growing at elevations <1.4 m in the Florida Keys, USA, the endangered Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii) experienced 84 percent loss of total stems from 1994 to 2007. The most severe losses of 99 and 88 percent stems occurred in the largest populations in the Lower Keys, where nine storms with high wind velocities and storm surges, occurred during this period. In contrast, three populations had substantial stem proliferation. To evaluate possible mortality factors related to changes in climate or forest structure, we examined habitat variables: soil salinity, elevation, canopy cover, and habitat structure near 16 dying or dead and 18 living plants growing in the Lower Keys. Soil salinity and elevation were the preliminary factors that discriminated live and dead plants. Soil salinity was 1.5 times greater, but elevation was 12 cm higher near dead plants than near live plants. However, distribution-wide stem loss was not significantly related to salinity or elevation. Controlled salinity trials indicated that salt tolerance to levels above 40 mM NaCl was related to maternal origin. Salt sensitive plants from the Lower Keys had less stem growth, lower root: shoot ratios, lower potassium: sodium ratios and lower recovery rate, but higher delta C-13 than a salt tolerant lineage of unknown origin. Unraveling the genetic structure of salt tolerant and salt sensitive lineages in the Florida Keys will require further genetic tests. Worldwide rare species restricted to fragmented, low-elevation island habitats, with little or no connection to higher ground will face challenges from climate change-related factors. These great conservation challenges will require traditional conservation actions and possibly managed relocation that must be informed by studies such as these.",Differential Response to Soil Salinity in Endangered Key Tree Cactus: Implications for Survival in a Changing Climate,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+575852,"Cattle play a major role in nutrient cycling of grassland ecosystems through biomass removal and excrement deposition (urine and feces). We studied the effects of cattle excrement patches (urine at 430 and feces at 940 kg N ha(-1)) on nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) fluxes using semi-static chambers on cool-season (C3), Bozoisky-select (Psathyrostachys juncea) pasture, and warm-season (C4)-dominated native rangeland of the shortgrass steppe (SGS) in northeastern Colorado. Nitrous oxide emission factors (EF; i.e., percent of added N emitted as N2O-N) did not differ between urine and feces on the C4-dominated native rangeland (0.11 and 0.10%) and C3 pasture (0.13 and 0.10%). These EFs are substantially less than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 Default EF (2%) for manure deposited on pasture, indicating that during dry years the IPCC Tier 1 Default EF would result in a significant overestimation of emissions from excrement patches deposited on SGS C4-dominated native rangeland and 0 pasture. Over the first year of the study (19 June 2012-18 June 2013), cumulative CH4 uptake was 38% greater for urine (-1.49 vs. -1.08 kg CH4-C ha(-1))and 28% greater for control plots (-2.09 vs.-1.63 kg CH4-C ha(-1)) on C4-dominated native rangeland compared to C3 pasture. In contrast, feces patches were net sources of CH4 with emissions from the C3 pasture (0.64 kg CH4-C ha(-1)) 113% greater than the C4-dominated native rangeland (0.30 kg CH4-C ha(-1)). Conversion of C4-dominated native rangeland to C3 pasture can have long term effects on CH4 uptake; therefore consideration should be taken before implementing this management practice. Published by Elsevier B.V.",Nitrous oxide and methane fluxes from cattle excrement on C3 pasture and C4-dominated shortgrass steppe,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+669902,"In its continuing move toward resource independence, Mongolia has recently entered a new agricultural era. Large crop fields and center-pivot irrigation have been established in the last 10 years across Mongolia's ""Breadbasket"": the Bulgan, Selenge and Tov aimags of northcentral Mongolia. Since meteorological records are typically short and spatially diffuse, little is known about the frequency and scale of past droughts in this region. We use six chronologies from the eastern portion of the breadbasket region to reconstruct streamflow of the Yeruu River. These chronologies accounted for 60.8% of May-September streamflow from 1959 to 1987 and 74.1% from 1988 to 2001. All split, calibration-verification statistics were positive, indicating significant model reconstruction. Reconstructed Yeruu River streamflow indicates the 20th century to be wetter than the two prior centuries. When comparing the new reconstruction to an earlier reconstruction of Selenge River streamflow, representing the western portion of the breadbasket region, both records document more pluvial events of greater intensity during 20th century versus prior centuries and indicate that the recent decade of drought that lead to greater aridity across the landscape is not unusual in the context of the last 300 years. Most interestingly, variability analyses indicate that the larger river basin in the western breadbasket (the Selenge basin) experiences greater swings in hydroclimate at multi-decadal to centennial time scales while the smaller basin in the eastern portion of the breadbasket (the Yeruu basin) is more stable. From this comparison, there would be less risk in agricultural productivity in the eastern breadbasket region, although the western breadbasket region can potentially be enormously productive for decades at a time before becoming quite dry for an equally long period of time. These results indicate that farmers and water managers need to prepare for both pluvial conditions like those in the late-1700s, and drier conditions like those during the early and mid-1800s. Recent studies have indicated that cultures with plentiful resources are more vulnerable when these resources become diminished. Thus, the instrumental records of the 20th century should not be used as a model of moisture availability. Most importantly, the geographic mismatch between precipitation, infrastructure, and water demand could turn out to be particularly acute for countries like Mongolia, especially as these patterns can switch in space through time. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Three centuries of shifting hydroclimatic regimes across the Mongolian Breadbasket,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+746648,"Climate change can affect the distribution, abundance, and phenology of organisms globally. Variations in the timing of passage during autumn and spring migration can have consequences at individual and population levels. We assessed whether global climatic indexes and increasing air temperature over a 28 yr period were concurrent with shifts in the autumn migration phenology of 16 eastern North American raptor species. We used count data from 7 eastern North American raptor-migration watch sites and examined whether key species-specific traits such as migration strategy (complete vs. partial and trans-equatorial vs. not), diet specialization, body mass, flight strategy (soaring vs. flapping), and latitude of the northern limit of breeding distribution were associated with a shift in the timing of autumn migration. Our results suggest an overall delay across species in autumn migration passage date of similar to 1 day decade similar to 1, which coincided with an increase in temperature across eastern North America. This shift in average autumn passage date was more pronounced in short-distance migrants +1.03 days decade(-1) ); no shift was detected in trans-equatorial migrants. Although we did not detect clear links between annual climatic indexes and the other lifehistory traits studied, the results nonetheless indicate that the autumn migration phenology of eastern North American raptors may be delayed by ongoing climate change. However, the amplitude of these effects varies on a species-by-species basis. Our results-combined with new evidence of an earlier passage during spring migration for the same species in the same area-suggest that, since 1985, most raptors spent similar to 2 additional days decade similar to 1 north of our study's migration sites. Such an increase in time spent at northern latitudes in a large number of terrestrial avian predators over a wide geographic area may have profound impacts on population and ecosystem dynamics. Unraveling such impacts will require linking interspecific and intraspecific variations in phenological adjustments to ongoing climate change.",Long-term phenological shifts in migration and breeding-area residency in eastern North American raptors,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+523727,"Climate change is predicted to be the major threat to biodiversity by 2100, when the global average temperature may increase by 5-6 degrees, according to current predictions and trends in greenhouse gas emissions. However, many impacts of climate change on biodiversity have already been observed. These observed effects provide tangible evidence to motivate action to mitigate against further climate change. Focusing on Europe, this overview summarises recently published observed impacts of modern climate change on birds. Due to the sensitivity of birds to weather fluctuations, the high numbers of ornithologists throughout Europe and the tradition in the long-term study of bird populations, there is no doubt that climate change impacts on birds have already occurred. These impacts include changes in (i) phenology (e.g., breeding times), (ii) migration patterns (e.g., time of spring arrival from the wintering grounds), (iii) species distribution (e.g., poleward shift of range margins) and (iv) abundances (e.g., population declines of habitat-specialist birds). Although the overall evidence available is comprehensive, there is a challenge in disentangling the effects of climate change from those of other concurrent factors such as habitat loss and degradation, e.g. due to large-scale intensification of agriculture. Birds are coping with climate change by means of their phenotypic plasticity, but little evidence is available to prove that evolutionary adaptation is already taking place. Further climate change is likely to affect birds at many levels, from changes in body size to shifts in assemblage composition, from mismatches with their resources to the introduction of exotic species and new diseases: the interactions among these levels need to be considered in future research and to devise effective conservation strategies. The rapid development of this key topic in conservation biology and applied ecology makes it important to ensure long-term funding for research, review and dissemination.",Observed impacts of climate change on terrestrial birds in Europe: an overview,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+201323,"Vertebrates are a vital ecological component of Amazon forest biodiversity. Although vertebrates are a functionally important part of various ecosystem services they continue to be threatened by anthropogenic impacts throughout the Amazon. Here we use a standardized, regularly spaced arrangement of camera traps within 25km(2) to provide a baseline assessment of vertebrate species diversity in a sustainable use protected area in the eastern Brazilian Amazon. We examined seasonal differences in the per species encounter rates (number of photos per camera trap and number of cameras with photos). Generalized linear models (GLMs) were then used to examine the influence of five variables (altitude, canopy cover, basal area, distance to nearest river and distance to nearest large river) on the number of photos per species and on functional groups. GLMs were also used to examine the relationships between large predators [Jaguar (Panthera onca) and Puma (Puma concolor)] and their prey. A total of 649 independent photos of 25 species were obtained from 1,800 camera trap days (900 each during wet and dry seasons). Only ungulates and rodents showed significant seasonal differences in the number of photos per camera. The number of photos differed between seasons for only three species (Mazama americana, Dasyprocta leporina and Myoprocta acouchy) all of which were photographed more (3 to 10 fold increase) during the wet season. Mazama americana was the only species where a significant difference was found in occupancy, with more photos in more cameras during the wet season. For most groups and species variation in the number of photos per camera was only explained weakly by the GLMs (deviance explained ranging from 10.3 to 54.4%). Terrestrial birds (Crax alector, Psophia crepitans and Tinamus major) and rodents (Cuniculus paca, Dasyprocta leporina and M. acouchy) were the notable exceptions, with our GLMs significantly explaining variation in the distribution of all species (deviance explained ranging from 21.0 to 54.5%). The group and species GLMs showed some novel ecological information from this relatively pristine area. We found no association between large cats and their potential prey. We also found that rodent and bird species were more often recorded closer to streams. As hunters gain access via rivers this finding suggests that there is currently little anthropogenic impact on the species. Our findings provide a standardized baseline for comparison with other sites and with which planned management and extractive activities can be evaluated.",Ecological Relationships of Meso-Scale Distribution in 25 Neotropical Vertebrate Species,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+442163,"Anthropogenic habitat alteration has the capacity to alter the distribution of species. Capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) are a widely distributed rodent throughout most of South America, but are restricted to areas of standing water. As the Gran Chaco ecosystem of Paraguay is converted from dry tropical forest to pastureland, we hypothesize that this alteration creates potential for invasion by capybara into newly fragmented areas. We surveyed throughout the Chaco to estimate the distribution of capybara, and we collected noninvasive genetic samples. We used ecological niche modeling based on six environmental or climatic variables, and we modeled both the current distribution of capybara and the distribution of capybara 80 years ago. We then verified the hypothesized demographic signal generated with our model using phylogeographic analyses of 386 bp of the mtDNA control region. Comparison of present and past models suggested that populations expanded into the Gran Chaco after forest was converted to pastureland. Analyses of the mitochondrial D-loop supported the rapid range expansion scenario. We also found evidence of secondary contact of two distinct phylogroups which had previously been disjunct. Anthropogenic land transformation appeared to be a major factor influencing the distribution, as predicted by the niche model and confirmed by genetic data. Habitat modification altered connectivity of populations across the landscape. In addition, long separated clades of capybara are now admixed throughout the Paraguayan Chaco. The invasion of a large bodied herbivore into the High Chaco region may exacerbate the degradation of forest and prevent forest regeneration. As the reservoir host of several zoonotic diseases, the expansion and contact of two previously disjunct capybara populations has implications for disease emergence.",Deforestation and cattle ranching drive rapid range expansion of capybara in the Gran Chaco ecosystem,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+480165,"In recent decades, global climate change [1] has caused profound biological changes across the planet [2-6]. However, there is a great disparity in the strength of evidence among different ecosystems and between hemispheres: changes on land have been well documented through long-term studies, but similar direct evidence for impacts of warming is virtually absent from the oceans [3, 7], where only a few studies on individual species of intertidal invertebrates, plankton, and commercially important fish in the North Atlantic and North Pacific exist. This disparity of evidence is precarious for biological conservation because of the critical role of the marine realm in regulating the Earth's environmental and ecological functions, and the associated socioeconomic well-being of humans [8]. We interrogated a database of >20,000 herbarium records of macroalgae collected in Australia since the 1940s and documented changes in communities and geographical distribution limits in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans, consistent with rapid warming over the past five decades [9, 10]. We show that continued warming might drive potentially hundreds of species toward and beyond the edge of the Australian continent where sustained retreat is impossible. The potential for global extinctions is profound considering the many endemic seaweeds and seaweed-dependent marine organisms in temperate Australia.",Seaweed Communities in Retreat from Ocean Warming,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2090013,"The impact of human activities on the principles and processes governing the arrival, establishment and spread of exotic pathogens is illustrated by vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, chikungunya, West Nile, bluetongue and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fevers. Competent vectors, which are commonly already present in the areas, provide opportunities for infection by exotic pathogens that are introduced by travel and trade. At the same time, the correct combination of environmental conditions (both abiotic and biotic) makes many far-flung parts of the world latently and predictably, but differentially, permissive to persistent transmission cycles. Socioeconomic factors and nutritional status determine human exposure to disease and resistance to infection, respectively, so that disease incidence can vary independently of biological cycles.","The arrival, establishment and spread of exotic diseases: patterns and predictions",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+249069,"Recent research on the relationship between coral reef water temperature and fish swimming activity has stated that swimming speed is inversely correlated with temperature above a species' optimum temperature (Johansen, J. L., and Jones, G. P. 2011. Increasing ocean temperature reduces the metabolic performance and swimming ability of coral reef damselfishes. Global Change Biology, 17: 2971-2979; Johansen, J. L., Messmer, V., Coker, D. J., Hoey, A. S., and Pratchett, M. S. 2014. Increasing ocean temperatures reduce activity patterns of a large commercially important coral reef fish. Global Change Biology, 20: 1067-1074). For tropical coral reefs, one anticipated consequence of global warming is an increase of >= 3 degrees C in average water temperature in addition to greater thermal fluctuations [IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working, Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, and M. Manning et al. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK; Lough, J. 2007. Climate and climate change on the Great Barrier Reef. In Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef. Ed. by J. Johnson and P. A. Marshall, pp. 15-50. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and Australian Greenhouse Office, Townsville, Qld, Australia; Johansen and Jones, 2011]. Evaluating the behaviour of coral reef associated fish species at different temperatures can help to assess their sensitivity to climate change. In this study, the speed of freely swimming fish in a natural setting is investigated as a function of seasonal changes in water temperature, as contrasted with systematic temperature increases in a fish tank. We show that Dascyllus reticulatus swim faster as a function of increased water temperature over the range 20.9-30.3 degrees C. The experiments were carried out using similar to 3.6 million fish trajectories observed at the Kenting National Park in Taiwan. Fish speed was computed by detecting and tracking the fish through consecutive video frames, then converting image speeds to scene speeds. Temperatures were grouped into 10 intervals. The data reveal an similar to 2 mm s(-1) increase in average speed per additional temperature degree over the range of 20.9-30.3 degrees C. The Mann-Kendall test using the mean and median speed for each interval revealed that there is a speed increase trend as temperature increases at the 0.05 significance level, rather than a random increase. Our results complement previous studies that investigated the effect of temperature on the swimming performance of different fish species in the laboratory (Johansen and Jones, 2011; Myrick, C. A. and Cech, J. J. 2000. Swimming performance of four California stream fishes: temperature effects. Environmental Biology of Fishes, 58: 289-295; Ojanguren, A. F. and Brana, F. 2000. Thermal dependence of swimming endurance in juvenile brown trout. Journal of Fish Biology, 56: 1342-1347; Lough 2007; Johansen et al., 2014).",Natural swimming speed of Dascyllus reticulatus increases with water temperature,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2353920,"Mountains harbor rich biodiversity and high levels of endemism, particularly due to changes in environmental conditions over short spatial distances, which affects species distribution and composition. Studies on mountain ecosystems are increasingly needed, as mountains are highly threatened despite providing ecosystem services, such as water supply for half of the human population. We aimed to understand the patterns and drivers of alpha and beta diversities of aquatic invertebrates in headwater streams along an altitudinal gradient in the second largest South American mountain range, the Espinhaco mountains. Headwater streams were selected at each 100 m of elevation along an altitudinal gradient ranging from 800 to 1400 m asl, where three substrate types per stream were sampled: leaf litter, gravel, and cobbles. Environmental variables were sampled to represent local riparian canopy cover, instream physical habitat, water quality, climatic data, and land use. Generalized linear models and mixed models were used to test relationships between altitude and the richness and abundance of invertebrates and to assess the influence of environmental variables on the same metrics. Patterns of spatial variation in aquatic invertebrate assemblages along the altitudinal gradient were assessed using multiplicative beta diversity partitioning. The richness and abundance of aquatic invertebrates decreased with increasing altitude, whereas beta diversity increased with increasing altitude. Significant differences in assemblage composition and in relative abundance of invertebrates were observed for both substrates and altitude. We thus show that the high regional beta diversity in aquatic ecosystems in the studied site is due to the high turnover among areas. in Portuguese is available with online material.",Beta diversity of aquatic invertebrates increases along an altitudinal gradient in a Neotropical mountain,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+196872,"Fine root dynamics control a dominant flux of carbon from plants and into soils and mediate potential uptake and cycling of nutrients and water in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding of these patterns is needed to accurately describe critical processes like productivity and carbon storage from ecosystem to global scales. However, limited observations of root dynamics make it difficult to define and predict patterns of root dynamics across broad spatial scales. Here, we combine species-specific estimates of fine root dynamics with a model that predicts current distribution and future suitable habitat of temperate tree species across the eastern United States (US). Estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover are based on empirical observations and relationships with fine root and whole-plant traits and apply explicitly to the fine root pool that is relatively short-lived and most active in nutrient and water uptake. Results from the combined model identified patterns of faster root turnover rates in the North Central US and slower turnover rates in the Southeastern US. Portions of Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were also predicted to experience >10% increases in root turnover rates given potential shifts in tree species composition under future climate scenarios while root turnover rates in other portions of the eastern US were predicted to decrease. Despite potential regional changes, the average estimates of root lifespan and turnover for the entire study area remained relatively stable between the current and future climate scenarios. Our combined model provides the first empirically based, spatially explicit, and spatially extensive estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover and is a potentially powerful tool allowing researchers to identify reasonable approximations of forest fine root turnover in areas where no direct observations are available. Future efforts should focus on reducing uncertainty in estimates of root dynamics by better understanding how climate and soil factors drive variability in root dynamics of different species.",Regional scale patterns of fine root lifespan and turnover under current and future climate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+153054,"This study was conducted in the Swedish sub-Arctic, near Abisko, in order to assess the direction and scale of possible vegetation changes in the alpine-birch forest ecotone. We have re-surveyed shrub, tree and vegetation data at 549 plots grouped into 61 clusters. The plots were originally surveyed in 1997 and re-surveyed in 2010. Our study is unique for the area as we have quantitatively estimated a 19% increase in tree biomass mainly within the existing birch forest. We also found significant increases in the cover of two vegetation types-""birch forest-heath with mosses'' and ""meadow with low herbs'', while the cover of snowbed vegetation decreased significantly. The vegetation changes might be caused by climate, herbivory and past human impact but irrespective of the causes, the observed transition of the vegetation will have substantial effects on the mountain ecosystems.","Changes in Tree Growth, Biomass and Vegetation Over a 13-Year Period in the Swedish Sub-Arctic",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1752671,"In the early stages of rebuilding New Orleans, a decision has to be made on the level of flood protection the city should implement. Such decisions are usually based on cost-benefit analyses (CBAs). But in suchs an analysis, the results are contingent on a number of underlying assumptions and varying these assumptions can lead to different recommendations. Indeed, though a standard first-order analysis rules out Category 5 hurricane protection, taking into account climate change and other human-related disruptions of environment, second-order impacts of large-scale disasters, possible changes in the discount rate, risk aversion, and damage heterogeneity may make such hurricane protection a rational investment, even though countervailing risks and moral hazard issues reduce benefits. These results stress the high sensitivity of the CBA recommendation to several uncertain assumptions, highlight the importance of second-order costs and damage heterogeneity in welfare losses, and show how climate change creates an additional layer of uncertainty in infrastructure design that increases the probability of either under-adaptation (and increased risk) or over-adaptation (and sunk costs). In such a situation, alternative decision-making approaches should be favored. This paper suggests several strategies that are especially robust to uncertainty and that should be preferred in the current context of high uncertainty on future climate conditions.","Uncertainties in the Cost-Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Measures, and Consequences for Decision Making",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1317975,"Georeferenced digital aerial photographs were used to assess changes in overstorey vegetation cover since 1948 in the Victoria River District, Northern Territory, Australia, across a range of lowland tropical savanna habitats and with explicit consideration of known and variable site-specific grazing and fire management histories. Vegetation surveys at corresponding locations on the ground identified five distinct woody vegetation communities defined primarily by water drainage and secondarily by soil characteristics. Air-photo analyses revealed that, contrary to popular perceptions and in contrast to results from other habitats, there has been no generalized net increase in overstorey woody vegetation cover across the full range of lowland savanna habitats. Rather, different habitats exhibited distinctly different vegetation change mechanisms: low-lying seasonally inundated 'wet' habitats have experienced woody vegetation increase since 1948, whereas well-drained 'dry' habitats have experienced overstorey vegetation stability or loss. In almost every instance woody vegetation increase could be attributed to the invasion or proliferation of a single species, Melaleuca minutifolia EMuell. The extent of M. minutifolia increase was unrelated to historical grazing/fire regime. Demographic analyses for this species revealed that recruitment was often episodic and that synchronized recruitment events occurred uniformly across the full range of historical management treatments, most likely as a consequence of favourable climatic conditions in years with an extended wet season. Heavy grazing facilitated juvenile survival and/or recruitment, most likely by reducing grassy fuel loads and eliminating landscape fire. We conclude that while there has been no generalized net increase in overstorey woody vegetation cover in lowland environments, savanna dynamics are complex, and multiple change mechanisms have occurred simultaneously in different habitats, some of which have been significantly transformed since 1948. Where net woody vegetation increase has occurred it is primarily a natural consequence of episodic M. minutifolia establishment in climatically favourable years, but the extent and magnitude of this effect is likely mediated by fire/","Net woody vegetation increase confined to seasonally inundated lowlands in an Australian tropical savanna, Victoria River District, Northern Territory",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+499638,"Buildings are responsible for approximately 40% of the primary energy use and 36% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S. As we move toward reducing GHG emissions, we need reliable methods for estimating emissions and emission reductions. GHG em issions come from all life cycle stages of a building; however, this paper focuses on those associated with energy used in the building. Many data sources and tools are available for calculating the GHG emissions from building activities, but they have different assumptions, different data sources, different system boundaries, and there are no agreedupon standards. Therefore, results of GHG emission calculations are neither consistent nor comparable. They often do not include the full life cycle of the energy and fuels and do not account for the regional and temporal variations in power generation and emissions. Temporal variations become important as load-shifting technologies and renewable energy generation are added to buildings. This paper presents the issues associated with estimating buildings-related GHG emissions and estimates the impacts of each issue. Recent and planned projects will provide more detailed regional and hourly data, but there are still many uncertainties and more work to do to develop accurate, easy-to-use tools. ©2010 ASHRAE.",Moving toward better GHG calculations for buildings,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+264572,"Paddy fields is the main source of global greenhouse gas emission, and different nitrogen application levels may impact greenhouse gas emissions. The research object is late rice in Jiangxi double cropping rice field, and the treatments include 4 different nitrogen fertilizer levels: control with no nitrogen (N0), nitrogen reduction by 40% (N1), conventional nitrogen (N2), and nitrogen adding by 50% (N3). The emissions and emission rate of nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) were studied by using static chamber - gas chromatograph, and we also computed the global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI). The results of the study showed that in the process of late rice growth, the emission flux of N2O and CO2 presented 3 high peaks and all showed that adding nitrogen treatment was higher than other treatments, but the emission flux of CH4 only had a peak. The emissions of N2O under the treatments of N0, N1 and N2 did not have significant difference (P&gt;0.05), only when the nitrogen application amount achieved the maximum value (N3 treatment), the N2O emissions were significantly higher than other treatments. Compared with the N0, the total emissions of CH4 under other 3 treatments (N1, N2 and N3 ) increased by 58.70%, 69.63% and 96.15% respectively, and the GWP increased by 22.34%, 25.34% and 52.92% separately. The GHGI of the N3 was the highest, up to 1.12 kg/kg, and it was significantly higher than N1 and N2. Compared with the conventional fertilizer application, reducing 40% nitrogen fertilizer had no significant effect on rice yield, but it could reduce the total amount of CO2 and CH4, which was beneficial to the energy saving and emission reduction. © 2016, Editorial Department of the Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering. All right reserved.",Effect of nitrogen fertilizer application on greenhouse gas emissions from soil in paddy field,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1432784,"An altitudinal belt of landscape embracing high mountain relief (alpine-type and subalpine-type golets*), mountain taiga and a meadow-swamp yernik** basin with larch-tree open woodland, is considered. The climatic conditions are rigorous, with the permafrost occurring everywhere. Using aerial and space-borne observations it has been possible to reveal regularities in the occurrence of exogenic and soil-formation processes. Within the economic context, this region shows an extremely poor development. Following the construction of a railroad, with an attendant increase in the number of population, there is an increase in human impact on the environment and, hence, the problem of nature protection is becoming ever more challenging. In order to avoid unfavourable consequences, it is necessary to carry out a package of preventive and protective measures and, in economic development, to take into account the possible change in the natural situation.",THE LANDSCAPE ECOLOGICAL FEATURES OF THE SUB-ARCTIC MOUNTAIN ZONE OF TRANSBAIKALIA,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+734510,"The objective of this study is to evaluate the influence that minimum temperature, average temperature, and maximum temperature have on yield when using the iGAEZ model. Simulated yields on each grid cell for 1980-1999, in three leading producers of wheat, rice and maize, were combined with climate datasets to evaluate the relationships between temperature and simulated crop yields. A generalized additive model was evaluated to analyse changes in diurnal temperature range (DTR) and crop yields. Results differ depending on crop and region as to whether there was a clear positive/negative response of yields to daily temperature indices (DTIs) (including DTR, Tmax, Tmin and Tave). However, the effects of DTIs were statistically significant using a generalized additive model for all crops and regions. To evaluate whether future changes in DTIs are relevant for impact assessment, yield responses to projected changes in DTIs by 2080-2099, from 19 climate models under SRES A2, B1 scenarios, were estimated. Among DTIs, DTR changes did significantly affect yield responses in several cases, such as in maize and rice yields in South Asia under B1 scenario. The decreasing/increasing trend of DTIs has an important implication for estimating the future impact of climate changes. Copyright (C) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Sensitivity analyses of crop yields and changes in climate variables simulated with iGAEZ,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+665920,"Executing a life cycle carbon analysis on a building has two components to consider: the Embodied Carbon (EC) and In-use Carbon, the sum of these forms 'the building carbon budget'. The in-use can be obtained through regulatory tools such as the Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) in the UK. Embodied carbon has a loose framework with little guidance on a standardised methodology. This paper explores embodied carbon analysis using building components to enhance the understanding of the sensitivity and categorisation of measurements to propose a methodology. The exploration of differing methods on a Passivhaus case study was undertaken with the use of global warming potential identified as the correct unit of measurement. Different methods of estimating quantities and datasets used for an EC calculation are discussed. Results highlight a variation in carbon emissions for certain common building materials between the method used in the Environmental Performance Declarations (EPD) compared to current databases such as Inventory of Carbon and Energy (ICE) using Cradle to Gate data. Designers prefer simple embodied carbon calculation methods. This paper identifies a calculation method giving an acceptable accuracy with the least amount of input data required to implement regulatory standardisation within the industry. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Exploration of life cycle data calculation: Lessons from a Passivhaus case study,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+643560,"With few exceptions, the diseases that present the greatest risk to food animal production have been largely similar throughout the modern era of veterinary medicine. The current trend regarding the ever-increasing globalization of the trade of animals and animal products ensures that agricultural diseases will continue to follow legal and illegal trade patterns with increasing rapidity. Global climate changes have already had profound effects on the distribution of animal diseases, and it is an inevitable reality that continually evolving climatic parameters will further transform the ecology of numerous pathogens. In recent years, many agricultural diseases have given cause for concern regarding changes in distribution or severity. Foot-and-mouth disease, avian influenza, and African swine fever continue to cause serious problems. The expected announcement of the global eradication of rinderpest is one of the greatest successes of veterinary preventative medicine, yet the closely related disease peste des petits ruminants still spreads throughout the Middle East and Asia. The spread of novel strains of bluetongue virus across Europe is an ominous indicator that climate change is sure to influence trends in movement of agricultural diseases. Overall, veterinary practitioners and investigators are advised to not only maintain vigilance against the staple disease threats but to always be sufficiently broad-minded to expect the unexpected.",Agricultural Diseases on the Move Early in the Third Millennium,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+429413,"We investigated the independent and combined effects of experimental warming and grazing on plant species diversity on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau, a region highly vulnerable to ongoing climate and land use changes. Experimental warming caused a 26-36% decrease in species richness, a response that was generally dampened by experimental grazing. Higher species losses occurred at the drier sites where N was less available. Moreover, we observed an indirect effect of climate change on species richness as mediated by plant-plant interactions. Heat stress and warming-induced litter accumulation are potential explanations for the species' responses to experimental warming. This is the first reported experimental evidence that climate warming could cause dramatic declines in plant species diversity in high elevation ecosystems over short time frames and supports model predictions of species losses with anthropogenic climate change.","Experimental warming causes large and rapid species loss, dampened by simulated grazing, on the Tibetan Plateau",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2361050,"The dynamics of vegetation cover changes may provide vital information for ecological environmental protection and early warning of ecosystem degradation in arid and semiarid regions. The West Liaohe River Basin is the east fringe of agro-pasture transitional zone in northern China and highly sensitive to global change. With the SPOT VEGETATION (SPOT-VGT) NDVI dataset during 1999-2010, temporal and spatial change trends of vegetation cover was investigated using yearly and seasonal average NDVI, Vegetation Anomaly Index (VAI) and correlation analysis. The relationship between vegetation change, climatic and anthropogenic factors were explored. The results indicated that yearly NDVI slightly increased with an undulating trend. 30.24% of the study area had experienced a significant vegetation increase at the 0.05 level from 1999 to 2010. The VAI negative values exhibited vegetation cover degradation impacted by the drought in 2000-2002 and 2009. The average NDVI values in autumn increased by 5.92%, whereas the spring NDVI decreased by -5.82%. 16.46% and 15.49% of the study area showed a significant vegetation increase in summer and autumn respectively. Changes in vegetation growth in the West Liaohe River Basin may be affected by spring precipitation, summer temperature and precipitation and autumn temperature. The NDVI increase trends in the study area were related to the increased crop yield.",Assessment of vegetation change and its causes in the West Liaohe River Basin of China using SPOT-VGT image,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+723776,"Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases.",Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+89635,"Rice production is the major source of food security in Cambodia where 85% of the total arable land is cultivated to rice with traditional transplanted medium and later maturity varieties accounting for >70% of the plantings during the monsoon period. Climate change poses risks and opportunities to the sustained productivity of rice based farming systems in Cambodia. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation strategies that support the replacement of traditional low input systems with a 'response' farming approach for better temporal utilisation of available labour, land and water resources. Options include replacing a traditional transplanted crop with short duration varieties, more efficient crop establishment methods and better agronomic and fertiliser management that responds to timing, intensity and longevity of the monsoon and has potential to mitigate effects of current and future climate variability. To achieve this, we apply the APSIM farming systems model to evaluate how adaptation options for smallholder farmers can increase or maintain overall productivity within present day climate variability and future climates, using downscaled GCM baseline and 2030 climate scenarios. To extend beyond the 2030 climate change scenarios, we also assess production risk from an increase in ambient air temperature of 1.4-4.3 degrees C, atmospheric CO2 concentration of 545-885 ppm and variation in rainfall, for rainfed and irrigated systems to 2090. Modelled scenarios indicate a yield response to elevated CO2 of 17.5% at a concentration of 680 ppm for current temperature and rainfall and are consistent with established physiological effects of CO2 on crop yields. In response to temperature, yields decreased by 4% per degree increase from an average annual baseline temperature of 28 degrees C. Adaptation strategies involving deployment of short duration rice varieties, in conjunction with direct seeding and better N management, indicate comparable and improved production can be achieved to 2030 under likely future climate projections. However, beyond 2030, the distribution and timing of rainfall has a significant influence on rainfed lowland rice in Cambodia. In this case a more transformational approach involving widespread provision of irrigation water will be required to offset climate change impacts. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Resilience of Cambodian lowland rice farming systems to future climate uncertainty,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2090016,"The characteristic evolution of the synoptic-and meso-scale wind, temperature and humidity pattern during wildland fire events in Portugal was determined by lagged covariances for the period 1980 to 2001. The daily burnt area was chosen as the parameter to be correlated with atmospheric fields provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA40) data. The related time series consisted of wildland fires with a daily burnt area of more than 500 ha in central Portugal. Five days in advance of a fire event, a strong positive anomaly existed in the surface pressure and in the 500-hPa geopotential field, both appearing to the west of the Iberian Peninsula and moving towards Brittany until lag zero. In advance of the fire event, the flow above Portugal came from the north, turning to easterlies at lag time zero and finally coming from the south-east during the post-event phase. Surface wind statistics taken at Castelo Branco supported these results. Smoke plumes from wildland fires detected by satellites indicated a similar flow structure, which was quite different to the averaged summertime flow above Portugal. Cross-covariance regression between the Iberian thermal low and burnt area showed that the peak amount of burnt area occurred up to 3 days after the appearance of a thermal low. This suggested that in the pre-phase of a wildland fire, heated air is transported from the peninsula's centre towards Portugal.",Regional-scale weather patterns and wildland fires in central Portugal,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+375240,"Traditionally farmers in China have relied on organic manures to build the organic matter content in soil and to fertilise crops for both human and livestock consumption. However, with requirements to increase food production, the use of relatively cheap inorganic fertilisers has increased, and manure nutrients are not always used to their potential. In addition, farms of all sizes and even biogas plants, often lack the basic infrastructure to manage manures; poor containment facilities often result in untreated manures being discharged directly into watercourses, whilst transportation of manures to the field and land spreading is often not mechanised and relies on availability of suitable labour. There is already clear evidence of overuse of nutrients in some parts of China and this is causing undesirable impacts on the environment. With the increasing demand for livestock products from a burgeoning population and changes in dietary preferences towards animal protein, greater quantities of manure nutrients will be generated in the next twenty years, especially in pen-urban concentrated animal feeding operations and intensive farms. It is essential that China addresses the infrastructural, research and communication challenges to ensure that manures are integrated into nutrient planning at the field, farm and regional level to safeguard the environment, reduce the requirement for inorganic fertiliser production and use, and improve farmer incomes. This paper reviews the current manure management practices, both nationally and, where appropriate, at a regional scale, and assesses what barriers currently prevent efficient manure nutrient utilisation in China. We then address the future challenges for manure nutrient management in China, before summarising key gaps in knowledge and communication with implications for research and policy. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Improving manure nutrient management towards sustainable agricultural intensification in China,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+562484,"The purpose of this study is to reach a basic understanding of drought and climate change in southwestern Jamaica through an integration of local knowledge and perception of drought and its physical characteristics manifested in remotely sensed precipitation and vegetation data. Local knowledge and perception are investigated through a survey of sixty farmers in St. Elizabeth Parish and physical characteristics of drought are examined through statistical analysis of satellite precipitation and vegetation vigor time series. The survey indicates that most farmers are concerned about an increase in drought occurrence. Satellite estimates of rainfall and vegetation vigor for St. Elizabeth Parish support this perception and suggest that severe drought events are becoming more frequent. The satellite precipitation time series also suggest that the early growing season is becoming drier as compared to the primary growing season, especially since 1991. This recent divergence in growing season moisture conditions might add to farmers' observations that drought is becoming more prevalent. Consequently, Jamaican farmers perceptions of drought are not driven by magnitude and frequency of dry months alone but rather by the difference between growing seasons. Any development of drought adaption and mitigation plans for this area must not focus solely on drought; it must also compare moisture conditions between months and seasons to be effective.","Climate Change, Drought, and Jamaican Agriculture: Local Knowledge and the Climate Record",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2344009,"Recent evidence shows that most Patagonian glaciers are receding rapidly. Due to the lack of in situ long-term meteorological observations, the understanding of how glaciers are responding to changes in climate over this region is extremely limited, and uncertainties exist in the glacier surface mass balance model parameterizations. This precludes a robust assessment of glacier response to current and projected climate change. An issue of central concern is the accurate estimation of precipitation phase. In this work, we have assessed spatial and temporal patterns in snow accumulation in both the North Patagonia Icefield (NPI) and South Patagonia Icefield (SPI). We used a regional climate model, RegCM4.6 and four Phase Partitioning Methods (PPM) in addition to short-term snow accumulation observations using ultrasonic depth gauges (UDG). Snow accumulation shows that rates are higher on the west side relative to the east side for both icefields. The values depend on the PPM used and reach a mean difference of 1,500 mm w.e., with some areas reaching differences higher than 3,500 mm w.e. These differences could lead to divergent mass balance estimations depending on the scheme used to define the snow accumulation. Good agreement is found in comparing UDG observations with modeled data on the plateau area of the SPI during a short time period; however, there are important differences between rates of snow accumulation determined in this work and previous estimations using ice core data at annual scale. Significant positive trends are mainly present in the autumn season on the west side of the SPI, while on the east side, significant negative trends in autumn were observed. Overall, for the rest of the area and during other seasons, no significant changes can be determined. In addition, glaciers with positive and stable elevation and frontal changes determined by previous works are related to areas where snow accumulation has increased during the period 2000-2015. This suggests that increases in snow accumulation are attenuating the response of some Patagonian glaciers to warming in a regional context of overall glacier retreat.",Assessing Snow Accumulation Patterns and Changes on the Patagonian Icefields,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+296598,"A large research program in the Australian monsoon tropics has concluded that monsoon rainforests have expanded within the savanna matrix, a trend that has been emulated throughout the tropics worldwide. The driver of the northern Australian trend was not resolved, but it was suggested to be linked to a long-term trend towards wetter climates, atmospheric CO2 enrichment, and changed fire regimes. We review these findings with particular consideration of its analytical and evidentiary basis and plausibility of the global change hypothesis. Field validation has largely demonstrated that the aerial photographic technique that underpinned the previous research is reliable enough to detect rainforest expansion. Statistical modelling demonstrated that the expansion is related to sites with regionally low fire activity, although models are of low explanatory power reflecting the sketchy historical records of fire and feral animal impacts. Field studies show that current fire regimes adjacent to expanding rainforest patches are causing populations of the native conifer Callitris intratropica, an obligate seeder, to crash. Therefore, it is unlikely that changes in fire regimes, which have been deleterious to other fire-sensitive taxa and plant communities in the region, are responsible for the rainforest expansion. We conclude that the expansion of monsoon rainforests is most plausibly linked to the current wetting trend or elevated CO2 concentration. Increases in either water availability or CO2 concentration can potentially overwhelm the negative feedback between fire and rainforest cover that is responsible for the meta-stability of monsoon rainforest boundaries. However, further research at the continental scale, using aerial photography, tree rings and other proxies, is required to evaluate this hypothesis.",Has global environmental change caused monsoon rainforests to expand in the Australian monsoon tropics?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1299508,"Entrainment of growth patterns of multiple species to single climatic drivers can lower ecosystem resilience and increase the risk of species extinction during stressful climatic events. However, predictions of the effects of climate change on the productivity and dynamics of marine fishes are hampered by a lack of historical data on growth patterns. We use otolith biochronologies to show that the strength of a boundary current, modulated by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, accounted for almost half of the shared variance in annual growth patterns of five of six species of tropical and temperate marine fishes across 23 degrees of latitude (3000 km) in Western Australia. Stronger flow during La Nina years drove increased growth of five species, whereas weaker flow during El Nino years reduced growth. Our work is the first to link the growth patterns of multiple fishes with a single oceanographic/climate phenomenon at large spatial scales and across multiple climate zones, habitat types, trophic levels and depth ranges. Extreme La Nina and El Nino events are predicted to occur more frequently in the future and these are likely to have implications for these vulnerable ecosystems, such as a limited capacity of the marine taxa to recover from stressful climatic events.",A boundary current drives synchronous growth of marine fishes across tropical and temperate latitudes,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1289534,"The terrestrial forest ecosystems in the northern high latitude region have been experiencing significant warming rates over several decades. These forests are considered crucial to the climate system and global carbon cycle and are particularly vulnerable to climate change. To obtain an improved estimate of the response of vegetation activity, e.g., forest greenness and tree growth, to climate change, we investigated spatiotemporal variations in two independent data sets containing the dendroecological information for this region over the past 30years. These indices are the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) and the tree-ring width index (RWI), both of which showed significant spatial variability in past trends and responses to climate changes. These trends and responses to climate change differed significantly in the ecosystems of the circumarctic (latitude higher than 67 degrees N) and the circumboreal forests (latitude higher and lower than 50 degrees N and 67 degrees N, respectively), but the way in which they differed was relatively similar in theNDVI3g and the RWI. In the circumarctic ecosystem, the climate variables of the current summer were the main climatic drivers for the positive response to the increase in temperatures showed by both the NDVI3g and the RWI indices. On the other hand, in the circumboreal forest ecosystem, the climate variables of the previous year (from summer to winter) were also important climatic drivers for both the NDVI3g and the RWI. Importantly, both indices showed that the temperatures in the previous year negatively affected the ecosystem. Although such negative responses to warming did not necessarily lead to a past negative linear trend in the NDVI3g and the RWI over the past 30years, future climate warming could potentially cause severe reduction in forest greenness and tree growth in the circumboreal forest ecosystem.",Time lag and negative responses of forest greenness and tree growth to warming over circumboreal forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+157905,"Permafrost thaw and its impacts on ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics are critical for predicting global climate change. It remains unclear whether annual and seasonal warming (winter or summer) affect permafrost thaw and ecosystem C balance differently. It is also required to compare the short-term stepwise warming and long-term gradual warming effects. This study validated a land surface model, the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange model, at an Alaskan tundra site, and then used it to simulate permafrost thaw and ecosystem C flux under annual warming, winter warming, and summer warming. The simulations were conducted under stepwise air warming (2 degrees C yr(-1)) during 2007-2011, and gradual air warming (0.04 degrees C yr(-1)) during 2007-2056. We hypothesized that all warming treatments induced greater permafrost thaw, and larger ecosystem respiration than plant growth thus shifting the ecosystem C sink to C source. Results only partially supported our hypothesis. Climate warming further enhanced C sink under stepwise (6-15%) and gradual (1-8%) warming scenarios as followed by annual warming, winter warming, and summer warming. This is attributed to disproportionally low temperature increase in soil (0.1 degrees C) in comparison to air warming (2 degrees C). In a separate simulation, a greater soil warming (1.5 degrees C under winter warming) led to a net ecosystem C source (i.e., 18 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). This suggests that warming tundra can potentially provide positive feedbacks to global climate change. As a key variable, soil temperature and its dynamics, especially during wintertime, need to be carefully studied under global warming using both modeling and experimental approaches.",Modeling permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon cycle under annual and seasonal warming at an Arctic tundra site in Alaska,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0
+419778,"Population growth, climate change, aging infrastructure, and changing societal values alter how water must be managed in the 21st Century. O'Shaughnessy Dam, located in Yosemite National Park, has been identified as a possible candidate for dam removal. It is a component of San Francisco's Hetch Hetchy System and is operated for water supply and hydropower. This article describes a spatially scaled approach to analyze water reliability without O'Shaughnessy Dam, but with improved water conveyance between the Hetch Hetchy System and existing reservoirs and aqueducts at the watershed, regional Bay Area, and statewide scales. It broadens previous research to highlight larger scale implications of removing O'Shaughnessy Dam and evaluates the role of improved water conveyance for water management. CALifornia Value Integrated Network, a large-scale hydro-economic model evaluates intertied water management using estimated urban and agricultural water demands for year 2050 with 72-year historical and warm, dry hydrologic conditions. Results suggest that O'Shaughnessy Dam can be removed with additional conveyance at any spatial scale while maintaining water reliability. With a warm, dry climate, water reliability, and storage decline, indicating removing O'Shaughnessy Dam may have less effect on water management than climate change when conveyance is improved between the Hetch Hetchy System and nearby systems. Improving water conveyance can sometimes substitute for water storage in storage-rich watersheds.",Water Supply Reliability Tradeoffs between Removing Reservoir Storage and Improving Water Conveyance in California,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1525509,"In this study, the regional tree-ring chronology of Picea crassifolia was used to estimate annual (September to August) streamflow of the Shiyang River for the period from AD 1765 to 2010. The linear regression model was stable and could explain 41.5% of the variance for the calibration period of 1955-2005. According to the streamflow reconstruction, dry periods with below average streamflow occurred in AD 1775-1804, 1814-1823, 1831-1856, 1862-1867, 1877-1885, 1905-1910, 1926-1932, 1948-1951, 1960-1963 and 1989-2002. Periods of relatively wet years are identified for AD 1765-1774, 1805-1813, 1824-1830, 1857-1861, 1868-1876, 1886-1904, 1911-1925, 1933-1947, 1952-1959, 1964-1988 and 2003-2010. Comparisons with the precipitation reconstructions from surrounding areas supplied a high degree of confidence in our reconstruction. Our reconstructed streamflow is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean. The Multitaper spectral and correlation analyses also suggested that the reconstructed streamflow variation in the Shiyang River could be associated with large-scale atmospheric-oceanic variability, such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The linkages among the streamflow reconstruction, NAO and ENSO suggest the connection of regional streamflow variations to the Asian monsoon and westerlies circulations. Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Shiyang River streamflow since AD 1765, reconstructed by tree rings, contains far-reaching hydro-climatic signals over and beyond the mid-latitude Asian continent",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3759616,"Salvia is a medicinal plant native to Iran with pharmaceutical and healthcare importance. We aimed to assess the compatibility of four Salvia species (officinalis, sclarea, nemorosa and limbata) in Semnan, Iran climatic conditions. The experiment was conducted in a randomized complete block design with four replications. The plantlets were planted in the main field and evaluated in early, mid and late-growth seasons. The studied characteristics included plant height, leaf and flowering traits. The active ingredients of the plant were obtained in various phenological stages and measured by GC-MS. Results showed that the maximum and minimum plant height and number of leaves were observed in officinalis and limbata species, respectively. Maximum leaf length and diameter were observed in sclarea and nemorosa species, respectively. The leaf growth process was increased with the development of growth season, such that maximum leaf length and diameter were obtained in the post-flowering conditions. Depending on the species, Salvia flowers are formed in different growth years, such that in the four species studied in this research, sclarea and officinalis started flowering from the first and second years, respectively. According to the comparison of flowering traits measured in these two species, the number of florets, height of main flowering spikes, height of lateral flowering spikes, and height of the post-flowering plant were higher in sclarea than officinalis. However, the number of lateral flowering spikes was higher in officinalis. Moreover, the number of active ingredients was higher in officinalis than other species. Conclusively, sclarea was the best species in growth indices and officinalis species had highest active ingredients yield. © 2019, Islamic Azad University. All rights reserved.",Growth compatibility and medicinal potential of four Salvia species in semnan climatic conditions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2310434,"Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes.",Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+443296,"In view of the tendency of global climatic warming, the water balance model is employed to estimate the runoff changes in the Urumqi River Basin, Xinjiang Region, China, under ten climate change scenarios, which are combinations of temperature increases by 2K and 4K with precipitation change of 0, +/- 10% and +/- 20%, respectively, as the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide increases.  The results suggest that runoff changes mainly depend on the precipitation change in the glacier-free or less glacierized basins in cold alpine regions.  Effect of temperature on runoff becomes marked gradually with the increase in precipitation.  Runoff from glacierized areas, however, is much more sensitive to the temperature change.",EVALUATING THE WATER-RESOURCE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC WARMING IN COLD ALPINE REGIONS BY THE WATER-BALANCE MODEL - MODELING THE URUMQI RIVER BASIN,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+787454,"Simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 provide projections of 21st century climate in the Columbia River Basin under scenarios of anthropogenic activity given by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The multi-model ensemble 30-year mean annual temperature increases by 2.8 A degrees C (5.0 A degrees C) by late 21st century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) over the 1979-1990 baseline, with 18% (24%) more warming in summer. By late 21st century, annual precipitation increases by 5% (8%), with an 8% (14%) winter increase and a 4% (10%) summer decrease, but because some models project changes of opposite sign, confidence in these sign changes is lower than those for temperature. Four questions about temperature and precipitation changes were addressed: (1) How and why do climate projections vary seasonally? (2) Is interannual variability in seasonal temperature and precipitation projected to change? (3) What explains the large inter-model spread in the projections? (4) Do projected changes in climate depend on model skill? Changes in precipitation and temperature vary seasonally as a result of changes in large-scale circulation and regional surface energy budget, respectively. Interannual temperature variability decreases slightly during the cool seasons and increases in summer, while interannual precipitation variability increases in all seasons. The magnitude of regional warming is linked to models' global climate sensitivity, whereas internal variability dominates the inter-model spread of precipitation changes. Lastly, GCMs that better reproduce historical climate tend to project greater warming and larger precipitation increases, though these results depend on the evaluation method.",Projections of 21st century climate of the Columbia River Basin,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3980531,"Groundwater is the major source of drinking water in semi-arid region of Rajasthan, India but its quality has been degraded by the addition of contaminants through natural and or anthropogenic reasons. Fluoride is one among these contaminants. The deterioration in the water quality may result in the health hazards. To ensure proper groundwater management in the area present study is carried out to understand the status of groundwater quality and possible causes for high fluoride concentrations. 34 groundwater samples were collected from Dausa district of Rajasthan. Analysed results show that the fluoride concentration ranged between 0.48 and 3.64 mg/l with an average of 1.66 mg/l in groundwater of study area. Fluoride concentrations in about 82% of the samples are more than the permissible limit (1.0 mg/l) set by the Bureau of Indian standards (BIS, 1991), whereas based on the WHO standards (F:1.5 mg/l) (WHO, 2009), about 41% of samples are exceeded the maximum permissible limit. The order of major cations and anions are Na+&gt;Mg+2&gt;Ca+2&gt;K+ and HCO3− &gt; Cl− &gt; SO4−2&gt;CO3−2&gt;NO3− &gt; F−, respectively. Weathering of rocks, evaporation and anthropogenic activities are found be responsible for high fluoride concentration. Since the geological unit in study area are alluvium, quartzite and granite gneisses containing fluoride bearing minerals like – Biotite, Muscovite, Fluorite and Albite, the major contribution comes from weathering of rocks. This finding is further supported by Scholler Chloro-alkaline indices and high Na+/Ca+2 ratio (&gt;1.0) suggesting ion-exchange. The high fluoride content render the water unfit for agriculture and drinking purpose in the area thus to ensure sustainable uses corrosivity ratio (CR) is utilized to assess groundwater suitability for industrial uses. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.","Evaluation of fluoride contamination in groundwater in a semi-arid region, Dausa District, Rajasthan, India",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+538250,"Temperate Australia is a global hotspot for marine biodiversity and its waters have experienced well-above global average rates of ocean warming. We review the observed impacts of climate change (e.g. warming, ocean acidification, changes in storm patterns) on subtidal temperate coasts in Australia and assess how these systems are likely to respond to further change. Observed impacts are region specific with the greatest number of species responses attributable to climate change reported in south-eastern Australia, where recent ocean warming has been most pronounced. Here, a decline of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) and poleward range extension of a key herbivore (sea urchin) and other trophically important reef organisms has occurred. Although, evidence of changes on other coastlines around Australia is limited, we suggest that this is due to a lack of data rather than lack of change. Because of the east-west orientation of the south coast, most of Australia's temperate waters are found within a narrow latitudinal band, where any southward movement of isotherms is likely to affect species across very large areas. Future increases in temperature are likely to result in further range shifts of macroalgae and associated species, with range contractions and local extinctions to be expected for species that have their northern limits along the southern coastline. While there is currently no evidence of changes attributable to non-temperature related climate impacts, potentially due to a lack of long-term observational data, experimental evidence suggests that ocean acidification will result in negative effects on calcifying algae and animals. More importantly, recent experiments suggest the combined effects of climate change and non-climate stressors (overharvesting, reduced water quality) will lower the resilience of temperate marine communities to perturbations (e.g. storms, diseases, and introduced species), many of which are also predicted to increase in frequency and/or severity. Thus climate change is likely to, both by itself and in synergy with other stressors, impose change to southern Australian coastal species, including important habitat-forming algae and the associated ecological functioning of temperate coasts. Management of local and regional-scale stresses may increase the resistance of temperate marine communities to climate stressors and as such, provides an attractive tool for building resilience in temperate systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Impacts of climate change in a global hotspot for temperate marine biodiversity and ocean warming,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2336823,"Water demand modelling is a crucial issue in the current climate of water restrictions and water conservation in Melbourne, Australia. Average annual inflows into Melbourne's major reservoirs since 1913 dropped rapidly by almost 40% during the 1997-2009 (Millennium Drought). This led to the development of the Sustainable Water Strategy for Central Region by the Victorian Government. The Strategy identified wide range of actions to secure water supplies in Victoria's Central Region for the next 50 years. The Strategy also sets a per capita consumption reduction target of 25% from 1990's average use by 2015, increasing to 30% by 2020. Water conservation efforts and initiatives were and are being implemented with interest in quantifying the impact of water conservation programs on reducing water demand. However, evaluation of the effectiveness of these options requires considerable effort since each of these options has a distinguishing set of environmental, social and economic outcomes. There has been significant modelling made to date to incorporate the effects of water conservation programs, although these are still in the early stage of development. Basic water demand models are based on the premise that total water use is made up of base use and seasonal use with base use characterised by the water use during winter. Previous models described base use to be mainly indoor use that is weather insensitive, however, a number of studies revealed that base use is weather dependent and water usage during winter months may include garden watering in some areas. In some cases, base use was modelled as representative of winter usage, based on the months of lowest usage in a year, but correlation of base use values with temperature and rainfall was not undertaken for residential water use. Even correlation of base use values with temperature and rainfall is still not undertaken for mixed water uses comprising of residential (indoor use), industrial, and commercial. In this context, there is still a need to investigate whether base use for water demand modeling is weather-insensitive or weather-sensitive. Hence, threshold of temperature and rainfall needs to be determined to investigate whether ""base use"" values which are mainly for indoor purposes are weather insensitive or whether ""base use"" values represent winter usage that may include gardening in other areas or cities i.e. weather sensitive and not mainly indoor use. This paper determines the thresholds at which water consumption is independent of temperature and rainfall. In general, when surface air temperature increases, consumption of water increases and when rainfall increases, water consumption decreases. However, a threshold point is reached beyond which increase of temperature and rainfall values no longer result to increase or decrease in water consumption. In one word, beyond the threshold line water use is independent of temperature and rainfall. To fulfil the aim of this research, daily water consumption of Greater Melbourne from Melbourne Water and daily temperature and rainfall data recorded by Bureau of Meteorology, Australia from January 01, 1980 to December 31, 2009 are analysed. From the analysis, temperature threshold is found as 15.53 degrees C for Greater Melbourne while rainfall threshold as 4.08 mm. It could be noted that at temperature higher than 15.53 degrees C, daily water use increases as the temperature increases but below this threshold, daily water use seemed to be independent of temperature and increases in water use at this level could be attributed to population increase or other factors. The identified temperature threshold accounts for 23 percentile of the daily maximum temperature recorded from January 1980 to December 2009 and usually occurred during the months of May-September. Daily water use increases as the rainfall decreases but above this threshold of 4.08 mm, any more rainfall would no longer contribute to daily water use reduction. This could be due to the resulting saturated soil moisture content or water use has already been driven to its base use level. The identified rainfall threshold accounts for 70 percentile of the daily rainfall recorded from January 1980 to December 2009.","Temperature and Rainfall Thresholds corresponding to water consumption in Greater Melbourne, Australia",1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3981306,"Cool-season (April to October) rainfall dominates the annual average rainfall over Victoria, Australia, and is important for agriculture and replenishing reservoirs. Rainfall during the cool season has been unusually low since the beginning of the Millennium Drought in 1997 (;12% below the twentieth-century average). In this study, 24 CMIP5 climate models are used to estimate 1) the extent to which this drying is driven by external forcing and 2) future rainfall, taking both external forcing and internal natural climate variability into account. All models have preindustrial, historical, and twenty-first-century (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) simulations. It is found that rainfall in the past two decades is below the preindustrial average in two-thirds or more of model simulations. However, the magnitude of the multimodel median externally forced drying is equivalent to only 20% of the observed drying (interquartile range of 40% to 24%), suggesting that the drying is dominated by internally generated rainfall variability. Underestimation of internal variability of rainfall by the models, however, increases the uncertainties in these estimates. According to models the anthropogenically forced drying becomes dominant from 2010 to 2029, when drying is evident in over 90% of the model simulations. For the 2018–37 period, it is found that there is only a;12% chance that internal rainfall variability could completely offset the anthropogenically forced drying. By the late twenty-first century, the anthropogenically forced drying under RCP8.5 is so large that internal variability appears too small to be able to offset it. Confidence in the projections is lowered because models have difficulty in simulating the magnitude of the observed decline in rainfall. Ó 2020 American Meteorological Society.","The impact of anthropogenic forcing and natural processes on past, present, and future rainfall over Victoria, Australia",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+375881,"In this work we document and analyze the hydrological annual cycles characterized by a rapid transition between low and high flows in the Amazonas River (Peruvian Amazon) and we show how these events, which may impact vulnerable riverside residents, are related to regional climate variability. Our analysis is based on comprehensive discharge, rainfall and average suspended sediment data sets. Particular attention is paid to the 2010-11 hydrological year, when an unprecedented abrupt transition from the extreme September 2010 drought (8300 m(3) s(-1)) to one of the four highest discharges in April 2011 (49 500 m(3) s(-1)) was recorded at Tamshiyacu (Amazonas River). This unusual transition is also observed in average suspended sediments. Years with a rapid increase in discharge are characterized by negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during austral summer, corresponding to a La Nina-like mode. It originates a geopotential height wave train over the subtropical South Pacific and southeastern South America, with a negative anomaly along the southern Amazon and the southeastern South Atlantic convergence zone region. As a consequence, the monsoon flux is retained over the Amazon and a strong convergence of humidity occurs in the Peruvian Amazon basin, favoring high rainfall and discharge. These features are also reported during the 2010-11 austral summer, when an intense La Nina event characterized the equatorial Pacific.",From drought to flooding: understanding the abrupt 2010-11 hydrological annual cycle in the Amazonas River and tributaries,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3935542,"The oxidation and tensile properties of a Ni20Cr20Fe5Nb alloy and a Ni20Cr20Fe 5Nb1Y2O3 alloy with nano-sized grains were compared with those of the comercial IN718 alloy. The oxidation resistance of the Ni20Cr20Fe5Nb1Y2O3 alloy was superior to that of the Ni20Cr20Fe5Nb and IN 718 alloys. This superior oxidation resistance was the result of both the formation of dense oxides on the surface of the alloy and the interruption of Cr migration in the alloy by the addition of Y 2O3. Moreover, the tensile property of the Ni20Cr20Fe5Nb1Y2O3 alloy at room temperature and 400°C was higher than that of the Ni20Cr20Fe5Nb and IN718 alloys by more than 300MPa (30%). This result can be attributed to the dispersion strengthening of Y 2O3. The relatively low tensile strength at 600°C and 800°C of the alloys fabricated by mechanical alloying was attributed to grain refinement showing intergranular fracture at high temperatures.",Increased high temperature oxidation resistance of Ni20Cr20Fe5Nb1Y 2O3 alloy with nano-sized grains,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+617647,"BACKGROUND: Few studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of extreme cold events on mortality in subtropical regions. OBJECTIVE: In the present study we aimed to investigate the effects of the 2008 cold spell on mortality and the possibility of mortality displacement in three subtropical cities in China. METHODS: Daily mortality, air pollution, and weather data were collected from 2006 to 2009 in Guangzhou, Nanxiong (no air pollutants), and Taishan. We used a polynomial distributed lag model (DLM) to analyze the relationship between the 2008 cold spell and mortality. To observe the mortality displacement of the cold spell, we estimated the cumulative effects at lag0, lag0-6, lag0-13, lag0-20, and lag0-27 separately. RESULTS: During the 2008 cold spell, the cumulative risk of non-accidental mortality increased significantly in Guangzhou [relative risk (RR) = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.19, 2.14] and Taishan (RR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.40) when lagged up to 4 weeks after the cold spell ended. Estimated effects at lag0-27 were more pronounced for males than for females, for respiratory mortality than for cardiovascular mortality, and for the elderly (>= 75 years of age) than for those 0-64 years of age. Most of the cumulative RRs increased with longer lag times in Guangzhou and Taishan. However, in Nanxiong, the trend with cumulative RRs was less consistent, and we observed no statistically significant associations at lag0-27. CONCLUSION: We found associations between the 2008 cold spell and increased mortality in the three subtropical cities of China. The lag effect structure of the cold spell varied with location and the type of mortality, and evidence of short-term mortality displacement was inconsistent. These findings suggest that extreme cold is an important public health problem in subtropical regions.","Short-Term Effects of the 2008 Cold Spell on Mortality in Three Subtropical Cities in Guangdong Province, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2306939,"We examine the dynamics of gender relations in terms of changes in gender roles and access to resources under recurrent drought conditions in Borana, Southern Ethiopia, using data from household surveys, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observations. Results show that in traditional Borana society, roles are structured on the basis of gender and age groups with women responsible for activities in and around their dwellings whereas men are responsible for livestock management. However, changes in pastoral production due to recurrent droughts seem to be transforming the gender roles so that women's workload, areas of decision-making, and income-earning opportunities have increased.",The Dynamics of Gender Relations under Recurrent Drought Conditions: a Study of Borana Pastoralists in Southern Ethiopia,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+656942,"Local climatic adaptation can influence species response to climate change. If populations within a species are adapted to local climate, directional change away from mean climatic conditions may negatively affect fitness of populations throughout the species range. Adaptive differentiation to temperature was tested for in American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius) by reciprocally transplanting individuals from two populations, originating at different elevations, among temperature treatments in a controlled growth chamber environment. Fitness-related traits were measured in order to test for a population temperature treatment interaction, and key physiological and phenological traits were measured to explain population differences in response to temperature. Response to temperature treatments differed between populations, suggesting genetic differentiation of populations. However, the pattern of response of fitness-related variables generally did not suggest ohome temperature' advantage, as would be expected if populations were locally adapted to temperature alone. Failure consistently to detect a ohome temperature' advantage response suggests that adaptation to temperature is complex, and environmental and biotic factors that naturally covary with temperature in the field may be critical to understanding the nature of adaptation to temperature.",Experimental test for adaptive differentiation of ginseng populations reveals complex response to temperature,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+657178,"This paper discusses the extent of Black Carbon (BC) radiative forcing in the total aerosol atmospheric radiative forcing over Pune, an urban site in India. Collocated measurements of aerosol optical properties, chemical composition and BC were carried out for a period of six months (during October 2004 to May 2005) over the site. Observed aerosol chemical composition in terms of water soluble, insoluble and BC components were used in Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds (OPAC) to derive aerosol optical properties of composite aerosols. The BC fraction alone was used in OPAC to derive optical properties of BC aerosols. The aerosol optical properties for composite and BC aerosols were separately used in SBDART model to derive direct aerosol radiative forcing due to composite and BC aerosols. The atmospheric radiative forcing for composite aerosols were found to be +35.5, +32.9 and +47.6Wm-2 during post-monsoon, winter and pre-monsoon seasons, respectively. The average BC mass fraction found to be 4.83, 6.33 and 4μgm-3 during the above seasons contributing around 2.2 to 5.8% to the total aerosol load. The atmospheric radiative forcing estimated due to BC aerosols was +18.8, +23.4 and +17.2Wm-2, respectively during the above seasons. The study suggests that even though BC contributes only 2.2-6% to the total aerosol load; it is contributing an average of around 55% to the total lower atmospheric aerosol forcing due to strong radiative absorption, and thus enhancing greenhouse warming. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.",On the contribution of black carbon to the composite aerosol radiative forcing over an urban environment,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1356384,"The mesosphytic forests of eastern North America represent a forest region characterized by dramatic 20th century changes in disturbance regimes, notably the exclusion of fire. Tree-ring reconstructions of forest disturbance can inform restoration and management plans by placing these changes into a historical context. This study examined forest disturbance with regard to land use change and drought in the New River Gorge region of West Virginia. I developed a 182-year pitch pine (Pinus rigida) growth chronology (1833-2014) using samples collected from 33 trees along 2 km of south-and southwest-facing slopes at Babcock State Park. Samples cut from fire-scarred pitch and Virginia pine (Pinus virginiana) were used to generate a fire chronology for the site. Temporal trends in pitch pine growth variability were assessed using regime shift and growth release detection methods. There was no change in pitch pine growth during the transition from the early settlement to industrial era (ca. 1885), while a significant decrease in annual growth variability characterized the post-industrial era (1963-2014). Seventeen fire events were recorded between 1887 and 1968. Growth releases displayed a temporal relationship with fire and there was a strong, but not significant, association between drought and fire years. These results suggest a coupled system in which anthropogenic fires driven by periodic drought maintained pitch pine before and during industrialization. Reintroducing fire to the post-industrial forest may not meet management objectives as decades of fire exclusion have altered forest fuels and species composition such that its effects would be difficult to predict.","Forest Disturbance History from 'Legacy' Pitch Pine (Pinus rigida) at the New River Gorge, West Virginia",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+682321,"Background: Climate change projections have highlighted the need for public health planning for extreme heat. In Adelaide, South Australia, hot weather is characteristic of summer and heatwaves can have a significant health burden. This study examines the heat thresholds and temperature relationships for mortality and morbidity outcomes in Adelaide. Methods: Daily maximum and minimum temperatures, daily mortality, ambulance call-outs, emergency department (ED) presentations and hospital admissions were obtained for Adelaide, between 1993 and 2009. Heat thresholds for health outcomes were estimated using an observed/expected analysis. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate the percentage increase in mortality and morbidity outcomes above the threshold temperatures, with adjustment for the effects of ozone (O-3) and particulate matter<10 mu m in mass median aerodynamic diameter (PM10). Effect estimates are reported as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Results: Heat-related mortality and morbidity become apparent above maximum and minimum temperature thresholds of 30 degrees C and 16 degrees C for mortality; 26 degrees C and 18 degrees C for ambulance call-outs; and 34 degrees C and 22 degrees C for heat-related ED presentations. Most health outcomes showed a positive relationship with daily temperatures over thresholds. When adjusted for air pollutants, a 10 degrees C increase in maximum temperature was associated with a 4.9% increase in daily ambulance call-outs (IRR 1.049; 95% CI 1.027-1.072), and a 3.4% increase in mental health related hospital admissions (IRR 1.034; 95% CI 1.009-1.059) for the all-age population. Heat-related ED presentations increased over 6-fold per 10 degrees C increase in maximum temperature. Daily temperatures were also associated with all-cause and mental health related ED presentations. Associations between temperature over thresholds and daily mortality and renal hospital admissions were not significant when adjusted for ozone and PM10; however at extreme temperatures mortality increased significantly with increasing heat duration. Conclusions: Heat-attributable mortality and morbidity are associated with elevated summer temperatures in Adelaide, particularly ambulance call-outs, mental health and heat-related illness. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Heat and health in Adelaide, South Australia: Assessment of heat thresholds and temperature relationships",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3922345,"Coccoliths from cultured specimens of two species of coccolithophores (Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica) were sampled during two growth phases (late exponential and stationary), and their Mg isotope values (δ26Mg) as well as Mg/Ca values were measured in order to investigate whether δ26Mg can be used as a temperature proxy. Mg/Ca values were positively related with temperature (~0.002mmol/mol/°C), without statistically significant differences between the two growth phases and the two species. Both species were depleted in heavier Mg isotopes relative to the culture medium, and δ26Mg values were temperature dependent in both growth phases of E. huxleyi, although the δ26Mg values differed in the two growth phases. In G. oceanica, a weak correlation between δ26Mg values and temperature was seen in the late exponential growth phase only, and the δ26Mg values differed between growth phases. The large differences between δ26Mg values as measured in calcite formed during different growth phases indicate that Mg isotopes of coccoliths cannot be simply used as a temperature proxy. Our conclusions are preliminary and more data must be collected in order to fully evaluate the use of Mg isotopes of coccoliths as a temperature proxy. © 2010.",Mg isotopes and Mg/Ca values of coccoliths from cultured specimens of the species Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+385432,"The main portion of Tibetan Plateau has experienced statistically significant warming over the past 50 years, especially in cold seasons. This paper aims to identify and characterize the dynamics of inland lakes that located in the hinterland of Tibetan Plateau responding to climate change. We compared satellite imageries in late 1970s and early 1990s with recent to inventory and track changes in lakes after three decades of rising temperatures in the region. It showed warm and dry trend in climate with significant accelerated increasing annual mean temperature over the last 30 years, however, decreasing periodically annual precipitation and no obvious trend in potential evapotranspiration during the same period. Our analysis indicated widespread declines in inland lake's abundance and area in the whole origin of the Yellow River and southeastern origin of the Yangtze River. In contrast, the western and northern origin of the Yangtze River revealed completely reverse change. The regional lake surface area decreased by 11,499 ha or 1.72% from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, and increased by 6,866 ha or 1.04% from the early 1990s to 2004. Shrinking inland lakes may become a common feature in the discontinuous permafrost regions as a consequence of warming climate and thawing permafrost. Furthermore, obvious expanding were found in continuous permafrost regions due to climate warming and glacier retreating. The results may provide information for the scientific recognition of the responding events to the climate change recorded by the inland lakes.",Changing inland lakes responding to climate warming in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+480813,"AimsClimate change is known to drive both the reshuffling of whole assemblages and range shifts of individual species. Less is known about how local colonizations and extinctions of individual species contribute to changes at the community level. Our aim was to estimate the contribution of individual species to a change in community composition attributed to climate change and to relate these species-specific contributions to species' commonness, climatic niche characteristics and life history traits most likely to influence species sensitivity to climate change. LocationSweden. MethodsFocussing on birds, we analysed changes from 1998 to 2012 in the Community Temperature Index (CTI), a measure of the average climatic niche of a community. Using a jackknife approach we assessed the contribution of individual species to the temporal trend in CTI in four different regions across Sweden, controlling for habitat distribution. We further tested whether species contribution was related to population trends and rarity to identify species most vulnerable to climate change. ResultsCommunity Temperature Index had increased over time with the greatest gains occurring in the north of the country, reflecting the larger temperature increases in this area. Changes in the regional CTI were driven both by warm-dwelling species colonizing new sites and by extirpations of cold-dwelling species. Furthermore, the community changes were influenced by both rare and common species. At the same time, the distribution changes of a large number of species were seemingly unaffected by climate change. Main conclusionsBoth range expansion and contractions contributed to the relative increase of warm-dwelling species in Swedish bird communities. We successfully identified the climatic impacts on some of Sweden's rarest species, including cold-dwelling species in the mountainous north. Our approach may be an efficient tool to use when characterizing the impacts of climate change on species and communities.",Regional variation in climate change winners and losers highlights the rapid loss of cold-dwelling species,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+245439,"An extreme marine heat wave which affected 2000 km of the midwest coast of Australia occurred in the 2010/11 austral summer, with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of 2-5 degrees C above normal climatology. The heat wave was influenced by a strong Leeuwin Current during an extreme La Nina event at a global warming hot spot in the Indian Ocean. This event had a significant effect on the marine ecosystem with changes to seagrass/algae and coral habitats, as well as fish kills and southern extension of the range of some tropical species. The effect has been exacerbated by above-average SST in the following two summers, 2011/12 and 2012/13. This study examined the major impact the event had on invertebrate fisheries and the management adaption applied. A 99% mortality of Roei abalone (Haliotis roei) and major reductions in recruitment of scallops (Amusium balloti), king (Penaeus latisulcatus) and tiger (P. esculentus) prawns, and blue swimmer crabs were detected with management adapting with effort reductions or spatial/temporal closures to protect the spawning stock and restocking being evaluated. This study illustrates that fisheries management under extreme temperature events requires an early identification of temperature hot spots, early detection of abundance changes (preferably using pre-recruit surveys), and flexible harvest strategies which allow a quick response to minimize the effect of heavy fishing on poor recruitment to enable protection of the spawning stock. This has required researchers, managers, and industry to adapt to fish stocks affected by an extreme environmental event that may become more frequent due to climate change.",Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an extreme marine heat wave event at a global warming hot spot,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+22141,"Climate change is expected to cause mass human migration, including immigration across international borders. This study quantitatively examines the linkages among variations in climate, agricultural yields, and people's migration responses by using an instrumental variables approach. Our method allows us to identify the relationship between crop yields and migration without explicitly controlling for all other confounding factors. Using state-level data from Mexico, we find a significant effect of climate-driven changes in crop yields on the rate of emigration to the United States. The estimated semielasticity of emigration with respect to crop yields is approximately -0.2, i.e., a 10% reduction in crop yields would lead an additional 2% of the population to emigrate. We then use the estimated semielasticity to explore the potential magnitude of future emigration. Depending on the warming scenarios used and adaptation levels assumed, with other factors held constant, by approximately the year 2080, climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans (or 2% to 10% of the current population aged 15-65 y) to emigrate as a result of declines in agricultural productivity alone. Although the results cannot be mechanically extrapolated to other areas and time periods, our findings are significant from a global perspective given that many regions, especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming.","Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+554943,"One of the greatest challenges in global-change research is to predict the future distribution of vegetation. Most models of vegetation change predict either the response of a patch of present vegetation to climatic change or the future equilibrium distribution of vegetation based on the present relationship between climate and vegetation. Here we present a model that is, to our knowledge, the first model of ecosystem change in response to transient changes in climate, disturbance regime, and recruitment over the next 50-500 yr. The frame-based model uses quantitative and qualitative variables to develop scenarios of vegetation change from arctic tundra to boreal forest in response to global changes in climate (as predicted by general circulation models [GCMs]), fire, and land use. Seed availability, tree growth rate, and probability of fire were the model parameters that most strongly influenced the balance between tundra and boreal forest in transitional climates. The rate of climatic warming strongly affected the time lag between the onset of climate change and the simulated ecosystem response but had relatively little effect on the rate or pattern of ecosystem change. The model calculated that, with a gradual ramped change of 3 degrees C in the next century (corresponding to average rate of warming predicted by GCMs), any change from tundra to forest would take 150 yr, consistent with pollen records. The model suggested that tundra would first be invaded by conifer forests, but that the proportion of broad-leaved deciduous forest would increase, reflecting increased fire frequency, as climatic warming continued. The change in fire frequency was determined more strongly by climatically driven changes in vegetation than by direct climatic effects on fire probability. The pattern of climatic warming was more important than the rate of warming or change in precipitation in determining the rate of conversion from tundra to forest. Increased climatic variability promoted ecosystem change, particularly when oscillations were long relative to the time required for tree maturation. Management policies related to logging and moose-predator control affected vegetation as much or more than did changes in climate and must be included in future scenarios of global changes in ecosystem distribution. We suggest that frame-based models provide a critical link between patch and equilibrium models in predicting ecosystem change in response to transient changes in climate over the coming decades to centuries.",Model of transient changes in arctic and boreal vegetation in response to climate and land use change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2316734,"Weather and climate constitute the natural resource-base of a place for recreation and tourism. Climatic resources are an important condition for development of tourist activity and represent meteorological elements or their combinations which have medical and biological properties and are used in recreation. The relationship between the atmospheric environment and the enjoyable pursuit of outdoor recreational activity is a function of three facets of climatic conditions. Some climate variables are entirely physical (e.g., rain and its duration, high wind), some are physiological or thermal (e.g., air temperature and thermal state of the human body), some are psychological or aesthetic (e.g., clear blue sky, bright day or visibility). Thermal qualities of climate along with physical facets such as wind, rain and snow are important determinants of the suitability of weather and climate for outdoor recreation and sporting activities. The central objective of this paper is to present the possibility of assessment of climate physical facets for sport recreation taking into account the impact of climatic factors on the thermal state of a human body in the Jewish Autonomous Region ( JAR). Period favorable for summer recreation is insignificant and makes only a half of the duration of the warm season as a whole everywhere in the region. Limiting factors are dry or sultry weather, heavy precipitation and uncomfortable air temperatures at the beginning and at the end of the warm season. Mountain area is more acceptable for summer recreation with less sultry days and stronger wind. Data on water temperature in rivers and lakes corrects the results on the duration of the period favorable for beach recreation. In winter, the period unfavorable for outdoor recreation lasts from the middle of December to the middle - end of January, longer in mountains. Snow cover and its depth are important characteristics of physical facets for skiing and mountain-skiing tourism. Steady snow cover is formed from the second or third decade of November till the second - third decade of March. Extremely cold temperature and insufficient snow cover limit recreational and sporting activity in winter alongside with strong wind of more than 7 - 8 m/s. As a whole, the results show that conditions vary spatially and temporally through the region with two recreational-climatic zones. In some cases, markedly favorable periods are short; in others the periods are more persistent. A scheme that integrates important weather variables is used to assess the nature and duration of periods of favorable conditions for recreational and sporting activities. The work is considered useful for identifying recreational land use potential and could be valuable in planning and related decision-making in the tourism sector.",THERMAL AND PHYSICAL FACETS OF CLIMATE FOR RECREATION AND SPORTING ACTIVITIES IN THE JEWISH AUTONOMOUS REGION IN THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+45983,"Application of the principles and tools of hydraulics to predict and manage natural flows has been admiringly successful, yet with the advent of concepts such as environmental sustainability and resilience it has been necessary to introduce a biogeochemical component to hydraulic designs. Wetlands, land formation, nutrient availability are all dependent on the distribution of flow and turbulence in natural flows, and any manipulation of hydraulic behavior can sensitively influence related ecosystems. In this paper, the evolution of modern environmental hydraulics is outlined first, followed by a technical discussion on river diversions to splay sediment-laden freshwater flow over marshes to help land and wetland building. The latter is exemplified using a project conducted by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in the lower Mississippi river to improve the resilience of Louisiana coast against such forcing as land subsidence, storm surges and climate change. Some relevant hydraulic principles are discussed and compared with observations made in the USACE study. © 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, London.",Environmental hydraulics and sustainability: Some lessons from recent past,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+84007,"Trophic ecology is essential to understand ecosystem functioning and structure and assist biological conservation. Here we investigate, for the first time, the feeding ecology of Aphanius farsicus, a cyprinodontid fish endemic of a single landlocked river basin in central Iran. We sampled monthly a population of this fish species during a year and examined differences in food across seasons, sexes and sizes. Similarly to other cyprinodonts, A. farsicus showed sexual dimorphism and more abundance of females. Size structure and individual condition varied across seasons, with larger fish in spring and better condition in summer and less in winter. We found no empty guts, suggesting that these fish feed all year round due to the warm climate of its native distribution. Farsi toothcarp diet was based on detritus, algae (particularly diatoms, green algae, and cyanobacteria), and small invertebrates. Seasonal variation in diet was more important than variation due to fish size and the Farsi toothcarp consumed more green algae in spring and early summer and more diatoms and insects the rest of the year. Herbivory was considerable, similarly to a few other cyprinodonts, and increased with fish size, particularly because of higher consumption of green algae. As with species composition in diet, season was more important than size in the variation of number, biovolume, mean size, and diversity of prey captured, with higher number, richness and size of prey captured in summer. The ontogenetic diet shift was less marked in this cyprinodont than in many other Aphanius species, probably due to its reduced size and the resource availability of its habitat, but was also shown by size-dependent feeding selectivity for a few invertebrates.",Herbivory and seasonal changes in diet of a highly endemic cyprinodontid fish (Aphanius farsicus),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3920778,"Childhood anemia is often complicated in developing nations by altitude-induced polycythemia, parasitosis, and dietary inadequacy; however, school-aged children are often overlooked in research and public health efforts. The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of anemia among school-aged children in rural Ecuador and to investigate the etiology of anemia in this population to assist program development. A cross-sectional design and cluster sampling was used to sample 347 children aged 5 to 12 years in 5 communities in the Andean region. Altitude ranged from 2795 to 3240 m above sea level. Data collection included health and diet questionnaires, fecal parasite and finger-stick hemoglobin analysis, and anthropometric measures. World Health Organization standards were applied to adjust hemoglobin for altitude and determine the rate of anemia. Parasitosis affected 95% of children tested but showed no statistical impact on anemia. Anemia prevalence rose from 15% to 65%, once adjusted for altitude. Significant factors affecting anemia included failure to adjust for altitude and low dietary intakes of vitamins A, B12, folate, and zinc, with a minimal proportion of nutrients from animal-source foods. Dietary niacin and calcium were significantly correlated with the reduction of anemia (P &lt; .05). Anemia prevention programs may benefit from increased emphasis on animal-source foods. © 2010, SAGE Publications. All rights reserved.","The Impact of Altitude and Diet on Anemia in School-Aged Children in Lago San Pablo, Ecuador",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+785455,"Although biophysical yield responses to local warming have been studied, we know little about how crop yield growth-a function of climate and technology-responds to global temperature and socioeconomic changes. Here, we present the yield growth of major crops under warming conditions from preindustrial levels as simulated by a global gridded crop model. The results revealed that global mean yields of maize and soybean will stagnate with warming even when agronomic adjustments are considered. This trend is consistent across socioeconomic assumptions. Low-income countries located at low latitudes will benefit from intensive mitigation and from associated limited warming trends (1.8 degrees C), thus preventing maize, soybean and wheat yield stagnation. Rice yields in these countries can improve under more aggressive warming trends. The yield growth of maize and soybean crops in high-income countries located at mid and high latitudes will stagnate, whereas that of rice and wheat will not. Our findings underpin the importance of ambitious climate mitigation targets for sustaining yield growth worldwide.",Responses of crop yield growth to global temperature and socioeconomic changes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+408292,"Natural disturbances can obliterate established communities, which in resilient environments recover given time. Ecosystem recovery, however, can be altered by human activities. We document this phenomenon in beach habitats along the upper Texas coast that were impacted by Hurricane Ike, which struck the Texas coast in September 2008. Our monthly monitoring of two beaches spanned June 2007 through May 2009, and thus captured pre- and post-hurricane periods. The beach sites differed in their use by humans during the post-hurricane period, with one beach experiencing heavy vehicular driving. At both beach sites, macroinvertebrate population densities decreased, sediment was lost, and sediment grain size increased as a result of the hurricane. Within 3 months, sediment grain size recovered at both sites. At the beach location not experiencing heavy vehicular driving, total sediment and organismal abundance recovered within 9 months. The beach community there comprised taxa that were primary and secondary successional species. At the other beach location, however, recovery was not observed. It is likely that the heavy vehicular driving there interfered with recovery of the beach community. These findings demonstrate that human activities in these beach environments following large natural disturbances strongly influence ecosystem recovery, in this case possibly preventing return to the pre-hurricane ecosystem state. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Human interference prevents recovery of infaunal beach communities from hurricane disturbance,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3312859,"Spring snow cover across Arctic lands has, on average, retreated similar to 5 days earlier since the late 1980s compared to the previous similar to 20 years. However, it appears that since about the late 1980s the date the snowline first retreats north during the spring has changed only slightly: in the last 20 years snow has not been disappearing significantly earlier. Snowmelt changes observed since the late 1980s have been step-like, unlike the more continuous downward trend seen in Arctic sea-ice extent. At 70 degrees N, several longitudinal segments (of 10 degrees) show significant (negative) trends, while only two longitudinal segments at 60 degrees N show significant trends, one positive and one negative. These variations appear to be related to variations in the Arctic Oscillation (AO). When the springtime AO is strongly positive, snow melts earlier. When it is strongly negative, snow disappears later in the spring. The winter AO is less straightforward. At higher latitudes (70 degrees N), a positive AO during the winter months is correlated with later snowmelt, but at lower latitudes (50 degrees N and 60 degrees N) a positive wintertime AO is correlated with earlier snowmelt. If the AO during the winter months is negative, the reverse is true. Similar stepwise changes (since the late 1980s) have been noted in sea surface temperatures and in phytoplankton abundance as well as in snow cover.",A look at the date of snowmelt and correlations with the Arctic Oscillation,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+686101,"Recent works have indicated that climate change in the northeastern United States is already being observed in the form of shorter winters, higher annual average air temperature, and more frequent extreme heat and precipitation events. These changes could have profound effects on aquatic ecosystems, and the implications of such changes are less understood. The objective of this study was to examine how future changes in precipitation and temperature translate into changes in streamflow using a physically based semidistributed model, and subsequently how changes in streamflow could potentially impact stream ecology. Stream-flow parameters were examined in a New York City water supply watershed for changes from model-simulated baseline conditions to future climate scenarios (2081-2100) for ecologically relevant factors of streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations tool. Results indicate that earlier snowmelt and reduced snowpack advance the timing and increase the magnitude of discharge in the winter and early spring (November-March) and greatly decrease monthly streamflow later in the spring in April. Both the rise and fall rates of the hydrograph will increase resulting in increased flashiness and flow reversals primarily due to increased pulses during winter seasons. These shifts in timing of peak flows, changes in seasonal flow regimes, and changes in the magnitudes of low flow can all influence aquatic organisms and have the potential to impact stream ecology.",STREAMFLOW RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE: ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGIC INDICATORS IN A NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY WATERSHED,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+215553,"Scenario planning should be an effective tool for developing responses to climate change but will depend on ecological assessments of broad enough scope to support decision-making. Using climate projections from an ensemble of 16 models, we conducted an assessment of a midcontinental area of North America (Minnesota) based on a resistance, resilience, and facilitation framework. We assessed likely impacts and proposed options for eight landscape regions within the planning area. Climate change projections suggest that by 2069, average annual temperatures will increase 3 degrees C with a slight increase in precipitation (6%). Analogous climate locales currently prevail 400-500 km SSW. Although the effects of climate change may be resisted through intensive management of invasive species, herbivores, and disturbance regimes, conservation practices need to shift to facilitation and resilience. Key resilience actions include providing buffers for small reserves, expanding reserves that lack adequate environmental heterogeneity, prioritizing protection of likely climate refuges, and managing forests for multi-species and multi-aged stands. Modifying restoration practices to rely on seeding (not plants), enlarge seed zones, and include common species from nearby southerly or drier locales is a logical low-risk facilitation strategy. Monitoring ""trailing edge"" populations of rare species should be a high conservation priority to support decision-making related to assisted colonization. Ecological assessments that consider resistance, resilience, and facilitation actions during scenario planning is a productive first step towards effective climate change planning for biodiversity with broad applicability to many regions of the world. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Regional climate change adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in a midcontinental region of North America,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+604199,"Knowledge of environmental factors influencing demography of weed species will improve understanding of current and future weed invasions. The objective of this study was to quantify regional-scale variation in vital rates of giant ragweed and common sunflower. To accomplish this objective, a common field experiment was conducted across seven sites between 2006 and 2008 throughout the north central U.S. maize belt. Demographic parameters of both weed species were measured in intra- and interspecific competitive environments, and environmental data were collected within site-years. Site was the strongest predictor of belowground vital rates (summer and winter seed survival and seedling recruitment), indicating sensitivity to local abiotic conditions. However, biotic factors influenced aboveground vital rates (seedling survival and fecundity). Partial least squares regression (PLSR) indicated that demography of both species was most strongly influenced by thermal time and precipitation. The first PLSR components, both characterized by thermal time, explained 63.2% and 77.0% of variation in the demography of giant ragweed and common sunflower, respectively; the second PLSR components, both characterized by precipitation, explained 18.3% and 8.5% of variation, respectively. The influence of temperature and precipitation is important in understanding the population dynamics and potential distribution of these species in response to climate change.","Local Conditions, Not Regional Gradients, Drive Demographic Variation of Giant Ragweed (Ambrosia trifida) and Common Sunflower (Helianthus annuus) Across Northern U.S. Maize Belt",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+419027,"The seasonal cycle of Arctic Ocean temperature is weak due to the insulating and light-scattering effects of sea ice cover and the moderating influence of the seasonal storage and release of heat through ice melting and freezing. The retreat of sea ice and other changes in recent decades is already warming surface air temperatures in winter. These meteorological changes raise the question of how the seasonal cycle of the ocean may change. Here we present results from coupled climate model simulations showing that the loss of sea ice will dramatically increase the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature in the Arctic Ocean. Depending on the rate of growth of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the seasonal range in Arctic sea surface temperature may exceed 10 degrees C by year 2300, greatly increasing the stratification of the summer mixed layer.",The seasonal cycle of the Arctic Ocean under climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1849260,"Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution, and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species' responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including shifts in distribution to higher latitudes and to deeper locations, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification, and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence associated with species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with predominance of evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of the impact of climate change being associated with the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters), or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals).",Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2334521,"In north-west China, a number of university classrooms are natural ventilated during cold days when the prevailing mean outdoor air temperature is about 10 degrees C. This study investigated the students' thermal comfort and perceived air quality in natural ventilated university classrooms under such low outdoor temperature. 30 field-surveys were conducted in seven typical university classrooms during November 2017 in a sub-provincial city of Xi'an located in the north-west of China in the cold climate zone. A total of 992 responses from the university students ages between 17 and 22 years were received. The results showed that the thermal neutral temperature was 20.6 degrees C; the thermal comfort temperature range was from 19.5 to 21.8 degrees C; the occupants' preference temperature was 22.78 degrees C. The thermal dissatisfaction rate was lower than 10% when the indoor operative temperature ranges between 18.3 and 23.8 degrees C. The percentage of dissatisfied occupants for indoor air quality was higher than 20% in some cases and it was not related to CO2 concentration. Based on the survey results, it was found that the comfort temperature calculated by the aPMV model (China's thermal comfort model for free-running buildings) was higher than the experiment results. The occupant density affected the perceived air quality, but had no effect on thermal sensation. Moreover, the influence factors of perceived air quality including indoor temperature, enthalpy, thermal acceptability and thermal sensation were analyzed. Results showed that the occupants' acceptability of indoor air quality was mainly affected by thermal sensation.",Occupants' thermal comfort and perceived air quality in natural ventilated classrooms during cold days,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+263470,"Long-term data records are essential to detect and understand environmental change, in particular in generally data-sparse high-latitude and high-altitude regions. Here, we analyse a 47-year air temperature record (1965 2011) at Tarfala Research Station (67 degrees 54.7'N, 18 degrees 36.7'E, 1135 m a.s.l.) in northern Sweden, and a nearby 11-year record of 100-m-deep ground temperature (2001-11; 1540 m a.s.l.). The air temperature record shows a mean annual air temperature of -3.5 +/- 0.9 degrees C (+/- 1 standard deviation sigma) and a linear warming trend of +/- 0.042 degrees C yr(-1). The warming trend shows large month-to-month variations with the largest trend in January followed by October. Also, the number of days with positive mean daily temperatures and positive degree-day sums has increased during the last two decades compared to the previous period. Temperature lapse rates derived from the mean daily Tarfala record and an air temperature record at the borehole site average 4.5 degrees C km(-1) and tend to be higher in summer than in winter. Mean summer air temperatures at Tarfala explain 76% of the variance of the summer glacier mass balance of nearby Storglaciaren. Consistent with the observed increase in Tarfala's air temperature, the ground temperature record shows significant permafrost warming with the largest trend (0.047 degrees C yr(-1)) found at 20 m depth.","Recent air and ground temperature increases at Tarfala Research Station, Sweden",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+456201,"Climatic change is likely to affect Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests in several important ways. In this paper, we address the role of climate in four forest ecosystem processes and project the effects of future climatic change on these processes across Washington State. First, we relate Douglas-fir growth to climatic limitation and suggest that where Douglas-fir is currently water-limited, growth is likely to decline due to increased summer water deficit. Second, we use existing analyses of climatic controls on tree species biogeography to demonstrate that by the mid twenty-first century, climate will be less suitable for key species in some areas of Washington. Third, we examine the relationships between climate and the area burned by fire and project climatically driven regional and sub-regional increases in area burned. Fourth, we suggest that climatic change influences mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks by increasing host-tree vulnerability and by shifting the region of climate suitability upward in elevation. The increased rates of disturbance by fire and mountain pine beetle are likely to be more significant agents of changes in forests in the twenty-first century than species turnover or declines in productivity, suggesting that understanding future disturbance regimes is critical for successful adaptation to climate change.","Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1490249,"Borneo (Indonesia) is Earth's third largest island, and the location of both extensive areas of rainforest and tropical peatlands. It is the site of both regular (seasonal) biomass burning associated with deforestation, land cover change and agricultural production preparations, and occasional, but much more severe, extreme fire episodes releasing enormous volumes of carbon from burning vegetation and peat. These extreme fire episodes are believed to result from anthropogenic practices related to (the still ongoing) forest degradation and clearance activities, whose impact with regard to fire is magnified by the effects of El Nino related drought. Since 2000, data from the MODIS Earth Observation satellite instruments have been used to study fire on Borneo, but earlier large fire events remain less well documented. Here we focus on a series of large fire episodes prior to the MODIS era, and specifically a 20 yr period covering both the two strongest El Nino events on record (1997-1998 and 1982-1983), along with an unprecedented series of more frequent, but weaker, El Ninos. For the five El Ninos occurring between 1980 and 2000, we develop quantitative measures of the fire activity across Borneo based on active fire counts derived from NOAA AVHRR Global Area Coverage (GAC) Earth Observation satellite data. We use these metrics to investigate relationships between the strength and timing of the El Nino event, the associated drought, and the fire activity. During each El Nino, we find areas of major fire activity confined within two or three fire sub-seasons (separated by monsoons) and focused in parts of South and Central Kalimantan, and sometimes also in East and/or West Kalimantan. For each El Nino we investigate various lag correlations, and find relationships of similar strength between monthly rainfall deficit and fire, but of more variable strength between indices of El Nino strength (ENSO indices) and rainfall deficit. The two strongest El Nino episodes (1982-1983 and 1997-1998) are accompanied by the most abundant fires (two and three times the active fire count seen in the next largest fire year), and the strongest correlations between measures of El Nino strength, rainfall and fire. We find the most significant positive statistical association between an ENSO index and fire activity to be that between the 16-month (first and second fire sub-seasons) cumulative NINO3 anomaly and the simultaneously recorded active fire count (r = 0.98, based on the five El Nino episodes between 1980 and 2000), although we find a negative association of equal strength between the cumulative NINO4 index and active fire count when considered over the entire two year duration of each El Nino episode (first, second and third fire sub-seasons). Our results confirm that the El Nino phenomenon, via its effect on precipitation, is a primary large-scale, short-term climatic factor that has a strong control on the magnitude of the fire activity resulting from the numerous land cover changes, agricultural preparation practices and human-caused ignitions occurring annually across Borneo. The results also suggest that ENSO forecasting maybe a realistic means of estimating the extent and magnitude of this fire activity some months in advance, thus offering some potential for forecasting effects on the remaining forest and peatland resource and the regional atmosphere.","Fire, drought and El Nino relationships on Borneo (Southeast Asia) in the pre-MODIS era (1980-2000)",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1305119,"Plants that lack chlorophyll are rare and typically restricted to holoparasites that obtain their carbon, water and mineral resources from a host plant. Although not parasites in the traditional sense, albino foliage, such as the sprouts that sometimes develop from redwood tree trunks, are comparable in function. They occur sporadically, and can reach the size of shrubs and in rare cases, trees. Albino redwoods are interesting because in addition to their reduced carbon resources, the absence of chloroplasts may impede proper stomatal function, and both aspects may have upstream consequences on water transport and xylem quality. We examined the water relations, water transport and xylem anatomical attributes of albino redwoods and show that similar to achlorophyllous and parasitic plants, albino redwoods have notably higher stomatal conductance than green sprouts. Given that stem xylem tracheid size as well as water transport efficiency are nearly equivalent in both albino and green individuals, we attribute the increased leaf water loss in albino sprouts to lower leaf to xylem area ratios, which favour improved hydration relative to green sprouts. The stems of albino redwoods were more vulnerable to drought-induced embolism than green stems, and this was consistent with the albino's weaker tracheids, as characterized by wall thickness to lumen diameter measures. Our results are both complementary and consistent with previous research on achlorophyllous plants, and suggest that the loss of stomatal control and photosynthetic capacity results in substantial vascular and anatomical adjustments.",The water relations and xylem attributes of albino redwood shoots (Sequioa sempervirens (D. Don.) Endl.),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+71392,"1. Flower and seed production of plants can be greatly influenced by both natural climatic oscillations and local weather extremes. However, owing to the rarity of long-term monitoring studies conducted at a sufficient temporal scale to capture climatic oscillations and the unpredictability of extreme weather events, evidence that demonstrates how these two external forcings act in concert to drive plant reproduction remains scarce. 2. In addition, considerable variation in species' phenological responses to the external climatic forcings was often observed. Phylogenetic relationships may mediate this interspecific variation, but previous studies yielded inconsistent results when testing this hypothesis. 3. We monitored the flower and seed production in a subtropical rain forest, Fushan, Taiwan (24 degrees 45'N, 121 degrees 35'E), for over 10 years (since September 2002). In March 2005, a record low temperature (-1.3 degrees C) occurred at Fushan and caused great frost damage to plants. We used weekly phenological records and long-term meteorological data to assess the effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme weather event on plant reproductive output. 4. We show that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, which integrated local climatic variables at Fushan over several months, were strongly associated with flower and seed production. The 2005 spring frost also had long-lasting effects on the flower and seed production of several species. 5. In particular, we detected phylogenetic signals in the relationships between phenological responses of flowering production and several climatic variables (maximum temperature, irradiance and ENSO34 index). By contrast, the relationships between seed production and climatic variables, as well as phenological responses to the frost event, did not exhibit a phylogenetic signal. 6. Synthesis. Our findings add to the growing evidence that together the natural climatic oscillation (ENSO) and the extreme weather event (frost) determined the temporal variation in flower and seed production. In addition, phylogenetically closely related species resembled each other in their flowering responses to abiotic variation in this subtropical rain forest. Improved understanding of these abiotic and biotic interactions may help predicting population-and community-level phenological responses under future climate changes.",ENSO and frost codetermine decade-long temporal variation in flower and seed production in a subtropical rain forest,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1545571,"Many studies have connected excess heat to increased human mortality, but comparatively few have examined long-term temporal trends in this relationship. This study examined temporal trends in mortality associated with heat waves in 51 metropolitan areas in the United States for the period 19752010, using three different definitions of heat wave. Collectively, all three metrics showed a linear decline in human vulnerability to heat over time, while the number of heat events has generally increased. By the final decade of the study period, only six to seven cities were associated with statistically significant increases in mortality during heat waves. This trend, while generally declining, was variable on an individual metropolitan-area level. Contributing factors to this variability include the occurrence of an extreme heat wave affecting the overall relationship in heat wave and human mortality, and the variability in heat events over a given period. The observed broad adaptation in the human population to extreme heat, however, should be viewed in a cautionary sense. Even with decreased rates in overall human vulnerability, a greater number of heat events is expected in the future given anthropogenic climate change. Combined with an increasing population of susceptible individuals as society ages, human vulnerability to heat will remain a critical challenge for the ""anthropocene"" in the coming decades. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Spatiotemporal trends in human vulnerability and adaptation to heat across the United States,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+775716,"Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition has caused a decline in native plant species and an increase in exotic plant species in many terrestrial ecosystems; however, vegetation change depends on the rate and/or duration of N input, individual species responses, interactions with other resources, and ecosystem properties such as species richness and canopy cover, soil texture, pH, and/or disturbance regime. Native shrub and exotic forb responses to N enrichment were evaluated over a 13-year field experiment in a mature coastal sage scrub (CSS) shrubland of southern California to test the hypothesis that dry-season N input will cause a decline in native shrubs and an increase in exotic annuals. Nitrogen enrichment caused the dominant native shrubs, Artemisia californica and Salvia mellifera, to respond differently, with A. californica initially increasing with N input but declining thereafter and S. mellifera declining consistently over the 13-year-period. Both species exhibited higher canopy dieback during drought conditions, especially in N plots. Brassica nigra, an exotic annual, invaded N plots significantly more than control plots, but only after 10 years of N addition and a prolonged drought, which increased native shrub canopy dieback. These results indicate a possible synergism between N enrichment and drought on native shrub and exotic forb abundance, which would have important implications for plant diversity in semi-arid shrublands of southwest US that are anticipated to experience an increase in anthropogenic N enrichment and the frequency and duration of drought.",Chronic N enrichment and drought alter plant cover and community composition in a Mediterranean-type semi-arid shrubland,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+209084,"The boreal forest is one of the largest terrestrial biomes and plays a key role for the global carbon balance and climate. The forest floor vegetation has a strong influence on the carbon and nitrogen cycles of the forests and is sensitive to changes in temperature conditions and nutrient availability. Additionally, the effects of climate warming on forest floor vegetation have been suggested to be moderated by the tree layer. Data on the effects of soil warming on forest floor vegetation from the boreal forest are, however, very scarce. We studied the effects on the forest floor vegetation in a long-term (18years) soil warming and fertilization experiment in a Norway spruce stand in northern Sweden. During the first 9years, warming favored early successional species such as grasses and forbs at the expense of dwarf shrubs and bryophytes in unfertilized stands, while the effects were smaller after fertilization. Hence, warming led to significant changes in species composition and an increase in species richness in the open canopy nutrient limited forest. After another 9years of warming and increasing tree canopy closure, most of the initial effects had ceased, indicating an interaction between forest succession and warming. The only remaining effect of warming was on the abundance of bryophytes, which contrary to the initial phase was strongly favored by warming. We propose that the suggested moderating effects of the tree layer are specific to plant life-form and conclude that the successional phase of the forest may have a considerable impact on the effects of climate change on forest floor vegetation and its feedback effects on the carbon and nitrogen cycles, and thus on the climate.",Interactions with successional stage and nutrient status determines the life-form-specific effects of increased soil temperature on boreal forest floor vegetation,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+462417,"To predict climate-induced change in aquatic environments, it is necessary to understand the thermal constraints of various fish species and to understand the timing of current and projected coastal temperatures. This paper presents a newly developed model of the relationship between air and water temperature that was constructed on the basis of harmonic analysis. The model is novel because it requires only a single variable (air temperature) to predict water temperature and captures the hysteresis patterns of the rising and falling limbs and their historic memories. The model was calibrated and validated with data collected from monitoring buoys in Mikawa Bay, Japan between 2005 and 2009. The model validation showed a good performance with a root mean squared error (RMSE) in the range of 0.8-1.0 degrees C. It is especially encouraging that the suggested model can predict water temperature with a reasonable level of accuracy once an acceptable relationship between air temperature and water temperature has been constructed from previously measured data. DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)EE.1943-7870.0000499. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.",Development of an Air-Water Temperature Relationship Model to Predict Climate-Induced Future Water Temperature in Estuaries,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+721518,"Climate change is predicted to lead to warmer temperatures and more intense storms within the century in central and northern Australia. The ensuing impacts are anticipated to present immense challenges for remote communities, in terms of maintaining housing comfort, family health and wellbeing, engagement in education and employment, and community services and businesses. About 50 % of the Australian landmass is considered remote and it is home to a highly dispersed population of about half a million people (with 30 % being Indigenous people). Much of the population in remote Australia is considered highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change as they are highly exposed and sensitive to the impacts, with many having a low adaptive capacity. The lives of Aboriginal Australians living in remote communities are strongly influenced and governed by traditional customs, knowledge and practices. Even when living in large towns, people who are strongly connected to their country are able to blend knowledge from traditional and modern sources to adapt to the current climate. This article explores the extent of adaptive capacity of people to climate change in a small remote community and large service town in the Northern Territory of Australia and provides insights about their capacities and vulnerabilities. Results indicate that the social and cultural capital are of greater importance than commonly assessed and provide scope to enhance effective community-based climate adaptation.",Understanding climate adaptation investments for communities living in desert Australia: experiences of indigenous communities,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2317280,"Climate change may affect ocean and ice conditions in coastal oceans and thus have significant impacts on coastal infrastructure, marine navigation, and marine ecosystems. In this study a three-dimensional ice-ocean model is developed to examine likely changes of ocean and ice conditions over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves in response to climate change. The model is configured with a horizontal grid of approximately 7 km and a vertical grid of 46 levels and is run from 1979 to 2069. The projection period is 2011 to 2069 under a median emission scenario A1B used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the projection period, the surface atmospheric forcing fields used are from the Canadian Regional Climate Model over the North Atlantic. The open boundary conditions come from the Canadian Global Climate Model, Version 3 (CGCM3), adjusted for the 1981-2010 mean of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation model output. The simulated fields over the 1981-2010 period have patterns consistent with observations. Over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves during the projection period, the model shows general trends of warming, freshening, and decreasing ice. From 2011 to 2069, the model projects that under A1B sea surface temperature will increase by 1.4 degrees C; bottom temperature will increase by 1.6 degrees C; sea surface salinity will decrease by 0.7; bottom salinity will decrease by 0.3; and sea-ice extent will decrease by 70%. The sea level will rise by 0.11 m at the St. John's tide-gauge station because of oceanographic change, and the freshwater transport of the Labrador Current will double as a result of freshening. The regional ice-ocean model reproduces more realistic present climate conditions and projects considerably different future climate conditions than CGCM3.",Climate Change on Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves: Results From a Regional Downscaled Ocean and Sea-Ice Model Under an A1B Forcing Scenario 2011-2069,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+439959,"Coastal wetlands are responsible for about half of all carbon burial in oceans, and their persistence as a valuable ecosystem depends largely on the ability to accumulate organic material at rates equivalent to relative sea level rise. Recent work suggests that elevated CO2 and temperature warming will increase organic matter productivity and the ability of marshes to survive sea level rise. However, we find in a series of preliminary experiments that organic decomposition rates increase by about 20% per degree of warming. Our measured temperature sensitivity is similar to studies from terrestrial systems, three times as high as the response of salt marsh productivity to temperature warming, and greater than the productivity response associated with elevated CO2 in C-3 marsh plants. Although the experiments were simple and of short duration, they suggest that enhanced CO2 and warmer temperatures could actually make marshes less resilient to sea level rise, and tend to promote a release of soil carbon. Simple projections indicate that elevated temperatures will increase rates of sea level rise more than any acceleration in organic matter accumulation, suggesting the possibility of a positive feedback between climate, sea level rise, and carbon emissions in coastal environments.",Enhanced decomposition offsets enhanced productivity and soil carbon accumulation in coastal wetlands responding to climate change,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+248578,"The objectives of this study were to assess the energy flow, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, global warming potential (GWP) and sustainability of corn production systems in Kermanshah province, western Iran. The data were collected from 70 corn agroecosystems which were selected based on randomly sampled method in the summer of 2011. The results indicated that total input and output energy were 50,485 and 134,946 MJ ha(-1), respectively. The highest share of total input energy in corn production systems was recorded for N fertilizer, electricity power and diesel fuel with 35, 25 and 20%, respectively. Energy use efficiency and energy productivity were 2.67 and 0.18 kg MJ(-1), respectively. Also agrochemical energy ratio was estimated as 40%. Applying chemical inputs produced the following emissions of greenhouse gases: 2994.66 kg CO2, 31.58 kg N2O and 3.82 kg CH4 per hectare. Hence, total GWP was 12,864.84 kg Co(2)eq ha(-1) in corn production systems. In terms of CO2 equivalents 23% of the GWPs came from CO2, 76% from N2O, and 1% from CH4. In this study input and output C equivalents per total GHG and Biomass production were 3508.59 and 10,69634 kg C ha(-1). Net carbon and sustainability indexes in corn production systems were 7187.75 kg C ha(-1) and 2.05. Accordingly, efficient use of energy is essential to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impact in corn agroecosystems. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and assessment of sustainability index in corn agroecosystems of Iran",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2346259,"Copper is an essential micronutrient, especially for photosynthetic organisms, but can be toxic at high concentrations. In the past years, coastal waters have been exposed to an increase in copper concentration due to anthropogenic inputs. One well known case is the Chanaral area (Easter South Pacific coast), where a long term coastal copper enrichment event has occurred. That event strongly affected benthic marine diversity, including microbial communities. In this work, microcosm experiments were carried out to address the changes on picophytoplankton community composition of the disturbed area, when challenged to copper additions. Eukaryotic picophytoplankton communities from two areas were analyzed: one in the most copper-perturbed area and another at the north edge of the perturbed area. Flow cytometry data showed that 25g L-1 of copper addition exerted a positive effect in the growth kinetics on part of the eukaryotic picophytoplankton communities, independently of the site. 16S-plastid terminal restriction fragment length polymorphisms analysis suggested that eukaryotic picophytoplankton display a short and directional response to high copper levels. Members of the Prasinophyceae class, a Coscinodiscophyceae diatom, as well as Phaeocystis, respond in a short time to the environmental disturbance, making them excellent candidates for further studies to evaluate phytoplanktonic species as sentinels for copper disturbances in coastal marine ecosystems.",Eukaryotic picophytoplankton community response to copper enrichment in a metal-perturbed coastal environment,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3960072,"Purpose Cotton yarns spun from natural fibers are widely used in the apparel industry. Most of waste cotton goods are now disposed by incineration or landfill, which brings resource and environmental challenges to the society. Using the waste cotton to spin yarns is an alternative way to forward a more sustainable future. In this research, two scenarios for the environmental impacts of yarns spun from corresponding fibers are investigated, including recycled cotton fibers and virgin cotton fibers. Methods The life cycle assessment (LCA) has been conducted according to the collected data from on-site investigation of typical production factories. The life cycle for the recycled cotton yarn production is divided into five stages, i.e., raw material acquisition, transportation, breaking, mixing, and spinning. The life cycle of virgin cotton yarn production is been divided into four stages, i.e., raw material acquisition, transportation, mixing, and spinning. The functional unit is 1000 kg produced yarns which are used for weaving into the fabrics. Notable impacts on climate change, fossil depletion, water depletion, and human toxicity were observed. Results The life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) results show that environmental impacts of recycled cotton yarns are far less than those of virgin cotton yarns, except for climate change and water depletion. The reason is that the land occupation and irrigation water have great impact on environmental impacts of cotton cultivation. In spinning, the electricity is the key factor whose environmental impacts account for the most in the virgin cotton yarn scenario, while the electricity and water consumptions are the key factors for the recycled cotton yarn scenario in the life cycle of yarn production. The sensitivity analysis indicates that improving energy efficiency can significantly reduce environmental burdens for both the two scenarios. The uncertainty distribution of water depletion, human toxicity, fossil depletion, and climate change of the two scenarios were determined with a 90% confidence interval. Conclusions The LCIA results reveal recycled cotton yarn is a viable alternative to relieve resource and environmental pressure. About 0.5 ha of agricultural land can be saved, 6600 kg CO(2)eq can be reduced, and 2783 m(3)irrigation water can be saved by using 1000 kg of the recycled cotton yarns. It can be concluded that the recycled cotton fibers can be served as a substitute for virgin cotton fibers to reduce agricultural land and avoid environmental impacts generated from the cotton planting.",Could the recycled yarns substitute for the virgin cotton yarns: a comparative LCA,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1778484,"In forest ecosystems, fine roots have a considerable role in carbon cycling. To investigate the seasonal pattern of fine root demography, we observed the fine root production and decomposition processes using a minirhizotron system in a Betula-dominated forest with understory evergreen dwarf bamboo. The length density of fine roots decreased with increasing soil depth. The seasonal patterns of each fine root demographic parameter (length density of visible roots, rates of stand-total fine root production and decomposition) were almost the same at different soil depths. The peak seasons of the fine root demographic parameters were observed in the order: stand-total fine root production rate (late summer) > length density of the visible roots (early autumn) > stand-total fine root decomposition rate (autumn, and a second small peak in spring). The fine root production rate was high in the latter part of the plant growing season. Fine root production peaked in late summer and remained high until the end of the tree defoliation season. The higher stand-total fine root production rate in autumn suggests the effect of understory evergreen bamboo on the stand-total fine root demography. The stand-total fine root decomposition rate was high in late autumn. In the snow-cover period, the rates of both fine root production and decomposition were low. The fine root demographic parameters appeared to show seasonal patterns. The fine root production rate had a clearer seasonality than the fine root decomposition rate. The seasonal pattern of stand-total fine root production rate could be explained by both overstory and understory above-ground productivities.",Seasonal patterns of fine root demography in a cool-temperate deciduous forest in central Japan,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2358256,"Catastrophic die-offs can have important consequences for vertebrate population growth and biodiversity, but catastrophic risks are not commonly incorporated into endangered-species recovery planning. Natural (e.g., landslides, floods) and anthropogenic (e.g., toxic leaks and spills) catastrophes pose a challenge for evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) of Pacific salmon listed under the Endangered Species Act and teetering at precariously low population levels. To spread risks among Puget Sound chinook salmon populations, recovery strategies for ESU-wide viability recommend at least two viable populations of historical life-history types in each of five geographic regions. We explored the likelihood of Puget Sound chinook salmon ESU persistence by examining spatial patterns of catastrophic risk and testing ESU viability recommendations for 22 populations of the threatened Puget Sound chinook salmon ESU. We combined geospatial information about catastrophic risks and chinook salmon distribution in Puget Sound watersheds to categorize relative catastrophic risks for each population. We then analyzed similarities in risk scores among regions and compared risk distributions among strategies: (1) population groups selected using the ESU viability recommendations of having populations spread out geographically and including historical life-history diversity, and (2) population groups selected at random. Risks from individual catastrophes varied among populations, but overall risk from catastrophes was similar within geographic regions. Recovery strategies that called for two viable populations in each of five geographic regions had lower risk than random strategies; strategies that included life-history diversity had even lower risks. Geographically distributed populations have varying catastrophic-risks profiles, thus identifying and reinforcing the spatial and life-history diversity critical for populations to respond to environmental change or needed to rescue severely depleted or extirpated populations. Recovery planning can promote viability of Pacific salmon ESUs across the landscape by incorporating catastrophic risk assessments.",Incorporating catastrophic risk assessments into setting conservation goals for threatened Pacific Salmon,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2356986,"As-  a consequence of climate change, a higher frequency of spring drought periods followed by episodic precipitation events is predicted for Central China. Little is known about the effect of drought intensity on the response of soil CO2 efflux to discrete precipitation events in forest ecosystems. A field experiment was conducted to assess the responses of soil CO2 efflux to spring drought and precipitation pulse in an oak forest located at climatic transitional zone in Central China. Soil respiration (SR) and heterotrophic respiration (HR) under 30-day drought showed higher responses to precipitation pulse than those under control and 20-day drought treatments. Regardless of drought intensity, precipitation events of 5, 10, and 20 mm levels significantly increased SR by 86.0, 103.4, and 175.2%, and HR by 108.4, 129.5, and 161.5% when compared with non-water addition plots, respectively. Severe drought treatment (30-day drought) amplified the contribution of HR to SR in response to precipitation pulse (84.5% vs 78.3% for the control). Drought intensity rather than precipitation amount showed substantial influence on total carbon loss through SR and HR. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating both drought intensity and precipitation events and their impacts on soil carbon cycling into future predictions of forest ecosystems under climate change.",Responses of soil respiration to spring drought and precipitation pulse in a temperate oak forest,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+661602,"Although there is growing evidence of climate warming, for many regions the broader effects of climate variation on marine top predators remains unknown owing to the difficulty in obtaining, for synthesis, long-term and short-term datasets on multiple species. In the Australian region, climatic and oceanographic variability and change have been shown to affect marine species, often with profound consequences. Many seabirds are apex predators for which changes in climatic and oceanic dynamics have driven range movements poleward, reduced breeding success and altered breeding timing for some species. Here we review the literature to assess and determine the vulnerability of Australian seabirds to variation and change in climate and identify which species and ecosystems may be more resilient to future climate warming. It is clear from this synthesis that not all Australian seabirds are affected similarly, with responses varying by species and location. In addition, the paucity of information on the distribution and biology of seabird prey, foraging patterns and movements of seabirds, and the ability of seabirds to switch between prey species or adjust timing of life-cycles make generalisations about potential effects of future climate change and adaptive capacity in seabirds difficult. This applies both within Australia and elsewhere, where data are similarly sparse.",Observed and predicted effects of climate on Australian seabirds,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+173321,"The spatial patterns, time history, and seasonality of African rainfall trends since 1950 are found to be deducible from the atmosphere's response to the known variations of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The robustness of the oceanic impact is confirmed through the diagnosis of 80 separate 50-yr climate simulations across a suite of atmospheric general circulation models. Drying over the Sahel during boreal summer is shown to be a response to warming of the South Atlantic relative to North Atlantic SST, with the ensuing anomalous interhemispheric SST contrast favoring a more southern position of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone. Southern African drying during austral summer is shown to be a response to Indian Ocean warming, with enhanced atmospheric convection over those warm waters driving subsidence drying over Africa. The ensemble of greenhouse-gas-forced experiments, conducted as part of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, fails to simulate the pattern or amplitude of the twentieth-century African drying, indicating that the drought conditions were likely of natural origin. For the period 2000-49, the ensemble mean of the forced experiments yields a wet signal over the Sahel and a dry signal over southern Africa. These rainfall changes are physically consistent with a projected warming of the North Atlantic Ocean compared with the South Atlantic Ocean, and a further warming of the Indian Ocean. However, considerable spread exists among the individual members of the multimodel ensemble.",Detection and attribution of twentieth-century northern and southern African rainfall change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1894915,"How can indigenous and western scientific knowledge engage climate change dynamics collectively? The study addressed the question through the analysis of primary and secondary data. The primary data was sourced from key informant interviews, group discussion and questionnaire administered to 90 indigenes while the secondary data, which comprised statistics on temperature and rainfall, was obtained from the Wa weather station. The results revealed increasing temperature from 27.5 degrees C in 1970 to 28.6 degrees C in 2010, an increase ranging between 1.1 degrees C - 1.6 degrees C, and compatible outcomes from the two knowledge claims. Other findings included increasing wet rains and decreasing dry rains. The net effect on rainfall showed a generally decreasing trend over the period 1961-2011 at the rate of y = -0.8685x + 1067.5. However, indigenous indicators revealed increasing rainfall, confirming incompatible outcomes from the two knowledge sources. The two knowledge sources know climate and any change thereof from accumulated historical information. Indigenous knowledge does this through lived experiences in a repetitive process stored in oral tradition and symbols. Western scientific knowledge does the same through observation, measurement and analysis, of which reports are stored in hard form (paper copies) or soft form (digital copies). Therefore, incompatible outcomes raise questions about intrinsic values and weaknesses embedded in the separate methods.","CONFLUENCE OR CONFLICT BETWEEN INDIGENOUS AND WESTERN SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE ON CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CASE OF WA, GHANA",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+346973,"This study examines the changes in climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC) along the livestock seasonal migration routes in El Gedaref region (eastern Sudan). Analysis of temperature, rainfall and aridity index (ratio of rainfall to reference evapotranspiration) data during 1941-2009 shows significant warming of the climate, increasing rainfall variability and seasonality, and intensifying aridity conditions during the start and end of the wet season. The somewhat recent enhancement of the overall (annual) rainfall has reflected only in the mid wet season and were caused by few very wet days, indicating increased rainfall concentration and possible risk of soil erosion. Such climatic alterations and variability have inherent implications for land-use and land-cover over the region. LULC changes were investigated using multi-temporal satellite imagery from three sites along the livestock routes. The major trends were drastic conversions of natural vegetation areas into large-scale mechanized agricultural land. This resulted in a progressive loss and degradation of grazing area in the entire region. Overall, the documented LULC changes may cause an irreversible loss of biodiversity and a depletion of other ecological services provided by natural vegetation. The results of this study provide useful information when seeking to resolve complex land-management issues. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Implications of climate, land-use and land-cover changes for pastoralism in eastern Sudan",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+716266,"Changes in the higher plant populations of the Argentine Islands over the last four to five decades have been central to developing an understanding of the likely biological responses to the globally exceptional rates of regional climate change, in particular warming, experienced along the western Antarctic Peninsula over the same period. In this study, we reassessed local populations and distribution of the two indigenous flowering plants on two islands in this archipelago, the grass Deschampsia antarctica and the pearlwort Colobanthus quitensis, in order to compare with previous partial and detailed surveys carried out by the British Antarctic Survey between 1963 and 1990. Our major finding was that the strong trend of recent increase in population size documented in 1990 has not continued, with current population sizes of both higher plants now being slightly lower than but still comparable with those recorded in the last survey in 1990. We discuss reasons underlying this, including possible limits imposed by the suitability of available habitat, and a recent plateauing of the local climate warming trend in comparison with that seen before the 1990 survey, with no significant short-term warming apparent in annual or seasonal meteorological data since 1990.",Current status of the Antarctic herb tundra formation in the Central Argentine Islands,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1504185,"In this study, a field study was carried out to determine the effect of different irrigation water amounts on dry matter efficiency and silage quality features of species of corn for silage P32K61, P31Y43, P30B74 and the relationship of water and dry matter, as well as the threshold value of the dry substance to be used in silage quality estimation by leveraging such relationship. The study was planned as three repeats in a trial pattern of divided parcels in randomized blocks. Irrigation program was established by reapplication of 100% (I-100), 70% (I-70), 35% (I-35) of the water consumed every 7 days with the drip irrigation method. Thus, the irrigation consists of 1 full and 2 different deficit irrigation. In the study, irrigation water amount applied to I-100,I-70 and I-35 of types P32K61, P31Y43 and P30B74 was 637-653-666; 491-495-509; 342-363-371 mm, respectively, seasonal plant water consumption values were 705-714-738; 559-554-583mm, dry matter efficiency values ranged from 24.38-24.29-32.36, 23.26-23.33-25.5, and 12.8-14.46-14.13 t ha(-1). Linear relations were determined between dry matter (DM) efficiency of the species and irrigation water (I) as DM=20.57I+6369(r(2)=0.997**), DM=30.95I+4340(r2=0.999**),Y=36.14I+5826 (r(2)=0.998**);and between dry matter-plant water consumption (ETa) values as Y=26.02ETa+832.1(r(2)=0.969**),Y=36.55ETa-22.83 (r(2)=0.995**), Y=42.75ETa-1949 (r(2)=0.997**). The highest and lowest protein amounts by irrigation were 8.67% in the interaction of I-100 irrigation and P32K61 species and 6.14% in the interaction of 135 irrigation and P31Y43 species, respectively; digestible dry matter ratio was 70% in the interaction of I-100 irrigation and P30B74 species and 60% the interaction of I-35 irrigation and P31Y43,respectively. No statistically significant relation between the ADF (Acid Detergent Fiber) and NDF (Neutral Detergent Fiber) values was found. The highest water consumption efficiency was 4.38 kg/da-mm in I-100 irrigation and 3.37 kg/da-mm in I-35 irrigation. In addition, thecorrelation coefficient between ET, dry matter and protein amount was r(2):0.81** and r(2):0.80**, and a statistically significant positive relationship was observed (p<0.01) between ETa, dry matter and protein amount. As a result of statistical and economic analyses, threshold dry matter efficiency value on which the silage quality starts to drop was determined at 25.5 t ha(-1) in I-70 irrigation.",DETERMINATION OF WATER-EFFICIENCY RELATIONSHIPS AND SILAGE QUALITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MAIZE SPECIES FOR SILAGE(ZEA MAYS L.)THE FIRST PRODUCT GROWN UNDER SEMI-ARID CLIMATE CONDITIONS,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+276773,"Climate change is a current global concern and, despite continuing controversy about the extent and importance of causes and of its effects, it seems likely that it will affect the incidence and prevalence of both residual and imported infections in Europe. Climate affects mainly the range of infectious diseases, whereas weather affects the timing and intensity of outbreaks. Climate change scenarios include a change distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extremes. The largest health impact from climate change for Europe doesn't come from vector borne infectious diseases. This does not mean that these types of health impacts will not arise in Europe. The ranges of several vector-borne diseases or their vectors are already changing in altitude due to warming. In addition, more intense weather events create conditions conductive to outbreaks of infectious diseases: Heavy rains leave insect breeding sites, drive rodents from burrows, and contaminate clean water systems. The incidence of mosquito-borne parasitic and viral diseases, are among those diseases most sensitive to climate. Climate change affect disease transmission by shifting the vector's geographic range and by shortening the pathogen incubation period, climate-related increases in temperature in sea surface and level would lead to higher incidence of waterborne infectious and toxin-related illnesses, such as cholera and seafood intoxication. Climate changes all around the world with impact in Europe are demonstrated by the fact that recent cases of cholera have been imported to Europe from Kenya, where spreading epidemic has been linked to the El Nino phenomenon, originated from the Pacific Ocean. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from aberrant climate changes could indirectly contribute to disease transmission. Human susceptibility to infections might be further compounded by alterations in the human immune system caused by increased exposure to ultraviolet radiation and malnutrition due to alterations in agricultural products. Different kind of incidents in Europe with extreme weather events demonstrated effects on public health. The recent outbreak of the insect-borne Chikungunya virus in Italy in 2007 is an example of the kind of new health threat that the EU must be vigilant to confront. In addition, health effects of flooding, have been related to an excess cases of leptospirosis and campylobacter enteritis. Such examples have been demonstrated reported after flooding in the Czech Republic. Similarly, an increase of cryptosporidiosis in the United Kingdom has been related to flooding. Changing vector distributions associated with tickborne encephalitis and malaria have also been dempostrated in EU. A recently reported case of malaria in Italy in June 2008, suspected to be indigenously acquired, has shown how easily malaria could be reintroduced into several countries in the region. Another case of malaria in Greece in May 2010 affecting a young man living in a forestry region was claimed at KEELPNO-the Greek Center for disease control. Would this latest case be considered closely related to the one from Italy? If yes, then Public Health Services should elaborate plans to affront possible tickborne diseases. Heat waves are important causes of mortality on mortality are important. The deaths seen in France in 2003 from a heat wave are projected to be repeated, as heat waves become more severe. However, heat waves impacts on the transmission and severity of infectious diseases have not been elucidted. Finally scientific challenges include the elucudation of climate changes and extreme weather condition impact on infection transmission and outcome, human immune system changes and infection response, outbreak scenarios, animal and plant health and public health preparedness. European action plans to affront climate changes related health and infection problems are developed by the EU Commission at different levels and jointly by different DGs. In a few words within the EU the following points on human, animal and plant health are considered a priority: * Strengthening cooperation between the services of these three branches of health (human, animals, plants); * Developing action plans in the event of extreme weather conditions, in order to be better prepared and to react in the best way; * Gathering more reliable information on the risks of climate change whilst maintaining international cooperation, in particular with the WHO, as cooperation beyond that between Member States will be required to be more effective; * Providing additional effort to identify the most effective measures; * Improving the surveillance and the control of the animal diseases. The European Commission has decided to consider climate change, and the consequences it has on health, with greater importance whilst being aware that it is at the root of numerous diseases. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Climate changes, environment and infection: Facts, scenarios and growing awareness from the public health community within Europe",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1277797,"Mid-Holocene climate was characterized by strong summer solar heating that decreased Arctic sea ice cover. Motivated by recent studies identifying Arctic sea ice loss as a key driver of future climate change, we separate the influences of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-Holocene climate. By performing idealized climate model perturbation experiments, we show that Arctic sea ice loss causes zonally asymmetric surface temperature responses especially in winter: sea ice loss warms North America and the North Pacific, which would otherwise be much colder due to weaker winter insolation. In contrast, over East Asia, sea ice loss slightly decreases the temperature in early winter. These temperature responses are associated with the weakening of mid-high latitude westerlies and polar stratospheric warming. Sea ice loss also weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, although this weakening signal diminishes after 150-200 years of model integration. These results suggest that mid-Holocene climate changes should be interpreted in terms of both Arctic sea ice cover and insolation forcing.",The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-Holocene climate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+174671,"Extensive investigation was done on the changes in precipitation and streamflow in both space and time across China based on monthly precipitation data from 590 rainfall stations and on monthly streamflow data from 382 hydrological stations covering 1960-2000. Causes behind the precipitation changes were studied based on NCAR/NCEP reanalysis dataset. Influences of agricultural irrigation on availability and variability of water resources and related implications were also discussed. The results indicate that: (1) decreasing precipitation is found mainly in the regions between 105 degrees E and 115 degrees E and in the northeast China. Scarce precipitation is observed mainly in spring and autumn and winter seems to be wetter; (2) alterations of the East Asian monsoon activities should be the causes behind the spatial patterns of precipitation changes. Large-scale circulation of water vapor flux can well explain the spatial distribution of precipitation changes in China; (3) streamflow changes are mainly the results of precipitation changes. Agricultural irrigation heavily influences the variability and availability of water resources. Increasing water consumption due to booming socio-economy and fast growing population will further deteriorate the water status of China. In this sense, scientific and effective water resource management and advanced agricultural technology are urgently called for to ensure the sustainable socio-economy and social stability of China. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Precipitation and streamflow changes in China: Changing patterns, causes and implications",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1870524,"As a global meteorological process, change in climate conditions has become a serious topic that many researchers work on. However, data availability is still the major problem to analyze this process. Lebanon, as a Mediterranean region is influenced by climate change, which is viewed not only from fluctuation in the climatic elements, but also from its influence on the regime of water resources. These resources show an abrupt volumetric decrease in water supply, the so-called hydrologic drought"". Thus accusation of water shortage has become a national issue. The study of this phenomenon is tackled through analyzing different indices of surface and subsurface water, thus comparing different records on graphical illustrations and numeric values. Results of this application in Lebanon revealed an obvious decline in the amount of available water. This decline shows a variance between different sources. However, those which are not in a direct touch with human, like precipitation and snow cover, are less influenced and a decrease of 12-16% was resulted. These two elements directly represent the climate impact on water inputs. While, this percentage gets higher in the case of rivers and groundwater, in which their decrease ranges between 23-29%. This adds the human interference to the climatic conditions, which is due to over exploitation form groundwater and rivers. Moreover, the number of springs and their discharge as well as the number of local reservoirs exhibits the most excessive influence, Consequently, it was reduced to 43% and 79% for the springs and local reservoirs; respectively. This high percentage is attributed to the dependence of human on these two sources. The obtained results in this study are quite alarming and expose a dramatic exceed in the level of hydrologic drought in Lebanon that would be worth taking decision as soon as possible to water conserve by following a wise-use of water resources.",Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of Lebanon: Indications of Hydrological Droughts,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3337992,"The ongoing debate about the effects of changes in the high-mountain cryosphere on rockfalls and rock avalanches suggests a need for more knowledge about characteristics and distribution of recent rock-slope instabilities. This paper investigates 56 sites with slope failures between 1900 and 2007 in the central European Alps with respect to their geological and topographical settings and zones of possible permafrost degradation and glacial recession. Analyses of the temporal distribution show an increase in frequency within the last decades. A large proportion of the slope failures (60 %) originated from a relatively small area above 3000m a.s.l. (i.e. 10% of the entire investigation area). This increased proportion of detachment zones above 3000m a.s.l. is postulated to be a result of a combination of factors, namely a larger proportion of high slope angles, high periglacial weathering due to recent glacier retreat (almost half of the slope failures having occurred in areas with recent deglaciation), and widespread permafrost occurrence. The lithological setting appears to influence volume rather than frequency of a slope failure. However, our analyses show that not only the changes in cryosphere, but also other factors which remain constant over long periods play an important role in slope failures.","On the influence of topographic, geological and cryospheric factors on rock avalanches and rockfalls in high-mountain areas",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+244679,"Climate change is known to have a considerable influence on many components of the hydrological cycle. Yet, the implications for groundwater temperature, as an important driver for groundwater quality, thermal use and storage, are not yet comprehensively understood. Furthermore, few studies have examined the implications of climate-change-induced groundwater temperature rise for groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Here, we examine the coupling of atmospheric and groundwater warming by employing stochastic and deterministic models. Firstly, several decades of temperature time series are statistically analyzed with regard to climate regime shifts ( CRSs) in the long-term mean. The observed increases in shallow groundwater temperatures can be associated with preceding positive shifts in regional surface air temperatures, which are in turn linked to global air temperature changes. The temperature data are also analyzed with an analytical solution to the conductionadvection heat transfer equation to investigate how subsurface heat transfer processes control the propagation of the surface temperature signals into the subsurface. In three of the four monitoring wells, the predicted groundwater temperature increases driven by the regime shifts at the surface boundary condition generally concur with the observed groundwater temperature trends. Due to complex interactions at the ground surface and the heat capacity of the unsaturated zone, the thermal signals from distinct changes in air temperature are damped and delayed in the subsurface, causing a more gradual increase in groundwater temperatures. These signals can have a significant impact on largescale groundwater temperatures in shallow and economically important aquifers. These findings demonstrate that shallow groundwater temperatures have responded rapidly to recent climate change and thus provide insight into the vulnerability of aquifers and groundwater-dependent ecosystems to future climate change.",Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3897103,"Drought characteristics vary substantially among different climatic regions. Here in this study, wavelet analyses are used to characterize drought from monthly precipitation. The precipitation data are obtained from 6 fairly distributed stations across Western Jilin province (in China) for the period from 1957 to 2010. The calculated monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as a drought index. Morlet wavelet analysis shows multiple time-scales and significant cycles of drought exist in the study area. The cross wavelet approach was applied to see if there was a connection between monthly SPI time series and large scale climate indices, such as NINO3. The result shows that drought occurrence in the region is mainly influenced by medium and long-time climatic factors. However, different factors have degrees of influence at different stations. © Maxwell Scientific Organization, 2014.","Using wavelet analyses to determine drought characteristics: A cause study of western Jilin Province, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2090027,"Mangroves on Pacific high islands offer a number of important ecosystem services to both natural ecological communities and human societies. High islands are subjected to constant erosion over geologic time, which establishes an important source of terrigeneous sediment for nearby marine communities. Many of these sediments are deposited in mangrove forests and offer mangroves a potentially important means for adjusting surface elevation with rising sea level. In this study, we investigated sedimentation and elevation dynamics of mangrove forests in three hydrogeomorphic settings on the islands of Kosrae and Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). Surface accretion rates ranged from 2.9 to 20.8 mm y(-1), and are high for naturally occurring mangroves. Although mangrove forests in Micronesian high islands appear to have a strong capacity to offset elevation losses by way of sedimentation, elevation change over 6 years ranged from -3.2 to 4.1 mm y(-1), depending on the location. Mangrove surface elevation change also varied by hydrogeomorphic setting and river, and suggested differential, and not uniformly bleak, susceptibilities among Pacific high island mangroves to sea-level rise. Fringe, riverine, and interior settings registered elevation changes of -1.30, 0.46, and 1.56 mm y-1, respectively, with the greatest elevation deficit (-3.2 mm y(-1)) from a fringe zone on Pohnpei and the highest rate of elevation gain (4.1 mm y(-1)) from an interior zone on Kosrae. Relative to sea-level rise estimates for FSM (0.8-1.8 mm y(-1)) and assuming a consistent linear trend in these estimates, soil elevations in mangroves on Kosrae and Pohnpei are experiencing between an annual deficit of 4.95 mm and an annual surplus of 3.28 mm. Although natural disturbances are important in mediating elevation gain in some situations, constant allochthonous sediment deposition probably matters most on these Pacific high islands, and is especially helpful in certain hydrogeomorphic zones. Fringe mangrove forests are most susceptible to sea-level rise, such that protection of these outer zones from anthropogenic disturbances ( for example, harvesting) may slow the rate at which these zones convert to open water.",Surface Elevation Change and Susceptibility of Different Mangrove Zones to Sea-Level Rise on Pacific High Islands of Micronesia,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+411676,"Trees at Alaskan treelines are assumed to be limited by temperature and to expand upslope and/or to higher latitudes with global warming. However, recent studies describe negative temperature responses and drought stress of Alaskan treeline trees in recent decades. In this study, we have analyzed the responses of treeline white spruce to temperature and precipitation according to different climatic regimes in Alaska, described as negative (cool) and positive (warm) phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We found that in three consecutive phases (positive from 1925-46, negative from 1947-76, and positive again from 1977-98), the growth responses to temperature and precipitation differed markedly. Before 1947, in a phase of warm winters and with summer temperatures being close to the century mean, the trees at most sites responded positively to summer temperature, as one would expect from treeline trees at northern high latitudes. Between 1947 and 1976, a phase of cold winters and average summers, the trees showed similar responses, but a new pattern of negative responses to the summer temperature of the year prior to growth coupled with positive responses to the precipitation in the same year emerged at some sites. As the precipitation was relatively low at those sites, we assume that drought stress might have played a role. However, the climate responses were not uniform but were modified by regional gradients (trees at northern sites responded more often to temperature than trees at southern sites) and local site conditions (forest trees responded more often to precipitation than treeline trees), possibly reflecting differences in energy and water balance across regions and sites, respectively. However, since the shift in the PDO in 1976 from a negative to a positive phase, the trees' climate-growth responses are much less pronounced and climate seems to have lost its importance as a limiting factor for the growth of treeline white spruce. If predictions of continued warming and precipitation increase at northern high latitudes hold true, the growth of Alaskan treeline trees will likely depend on the ratio of temperature and precipitation increase more than on their absolute values, as well as on the interaction of periodic regime shifts with the global warming trend. Once a climatic limitation is lifted, other factors, such as insect outbreaks or interspecific competition, might become limiting to tree growth.",Do limiting factors at Alaskan treelines shift with climatic regimes?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+80476,"Water systems in snowmelt-dominated hydroregions such as California's Sierra Nevada mountains are sensitive to regional climate change, hydropower systems in particular. In this study, a water resources management model was developed for the upper west slope Sierra Nevada to understand the potential effects of regional climate warming on hydropower at the watershed scale, a scale that has been largely neglected but is important for hydroregional planning. The model is developed with the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) and includes most water management infrastructure in the study region. Hydropower is simulated assuming historical long-term electricity demand and a spill minimization rule. The method is suitable for simulating generation for most of the main watersheds in the region. To assess the potential effect of climate warming, uniform air temperature increases of 0 degrees C, 2 degrees C, 4 degrees C, and 6 degrees C were considered, with no change in precipitation, to approximate regional warming through 2100. The highly productive northern Sierra Nevada sees large reductions in hydropower generation with decreases in annual runoff. The central watersheds see less reduction in annual runoff and can adapt better to changes in runoff timing. Generation in southern watersheds, which are less productive, decreases. Results from this study can help identify which watersheds might easily adapt to climate change, where hydropower is likely to conflict with other uses, and where more detailed operational studies are needed.","Simulating High-Elevation Hydropower with Regional Climate Warming in the West Slope, Sierra Nevada",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2341660,"Characterizations of Philippine coral diseases are very limited. The two most common, ulcerative white spot disease (UWS) and massive Porites growth anomalies (MPGA), target the genus Porites, a dominant reef-building genus. This is the first investigation in the Philippines to detect positive correlations between coral disease, nutrient levels, and organic carbon. A total of 5,843 Porites colonies were examined. Water and sediment samples were collected for analyses of nutrients (total nitrogen and phosphorus) and total organic carbon at 15 sites along a 40.5 km disease gradient, which was previously shown to positively correlate with human population levels. Results suggest that outbreaks of UWS and MPGAs are driven by elevated nutrient and organic carbon levels. Although the variables analyzed could be proxies for other causative agents (e.g., high sediment levels), the results provide quantitative evidence linking relatively higher coral disease prevalence to an anthropogenically impacted environment.",Do elevated nutrients and organic carbon on Philippine reefs increase the prevalence of coral disease?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+111367,"We tested the hypothesis that recent oceanographic changes associated with climate change in the Northeast United States continental shelf ecosystem have caused a change in spatial distribution of marine fish. To do this, we analyzed temporal trends from 1968 to 2007 in the mean center of biomass, mean depth, mean temperature of occurrence, and area occupied in each of 36 fish stocks, Temporal trends in distribution were compared to time series of both local-and large-scale environmental variables, as well as estimates of survey abundance, Many stocks spanning several taxonomic groups, life-history strategies, and rates of fishing exhibited a poleward shift in their center of biomass, most with a simultaneous increase in depth, and a few with a concomitant expansion of their northern range. However, distributional changes were highly dependent on the biogeography of each species. Stocks located in the southern extent of the survey area exhibited much greater poleward shifts in center of biomass and some occupied habitats at increasingly greater depths. In contrast, minimal changes in the center of biomass were observed in stocks with distributions limited to the Gulf of Maine, but mean depth of these stocks increased while stock size decreased. Large-scale temperature increase and changes in circulation, represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, was the most important factor associated with shifts in the mean center of biomass. Stock size was more often correlated with the total area occupied by each species. These changes in spatial distribution of fish stocks are likely to persist such that stock structure should be re-evaluated for some species.",Changing spatial distribution of fish stocks in relation to climate and population size on the Northeast United States continental shelf,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+75158,"Changes of climate, glaciers and runoff during the last several decades in China's monsoonal temperate glacier region have been studied. Temperature has increased in a fluctuating manner during the last several decades, and temperature rise has accelerated since the 1980s. Net accumulation of Dasuopu ice core has consistently declined, and the precipitation decrease was also obvious from the end of 1970s through the middle 1980s, and particularly after the 1990s in China's monsoonal temperate glacier region. As a response to climate change, eight monsoonal temperate glaciers were stationary or advancing between the 1900s-1930s and the 1960s-1980s, and were in retreat from the 1930s to the 1960s and from the 1980s to the present. Ablation is heavy in the glacier tongue areas, and the mean ablation water equivalent in Hailuogou glacier during 1990/91-1997/98 was 876 mm more than that in 1982/83. Ablation depth on the exposed ice area increased by 1.4 m a(-1) over the period 1983/84-1990/91. Mass balance records also show that glaciers suffered a constant mass loss of snow and ice, and the accumulated mass balance in Hailuogou basin and Baishui glacier No.1 was -10.83 m water equivalent in the past 45 years, and -11.38 m in the past 52 years. As glaciers become shorter, narrower and thinner under the background of climate warming, changes of internal and upper surface morphology also occurred, providing evidence of the response to climatic warming in recent years. Local hydrological and climatic data demonstrated that, in Yanggong basin during 1979-2003 and Hailuogou basin during 1988-2004, runoff from the glacier areas has been increasing both seasonally and annually. Overall, it is clear that China's monsoonal temperate glaciers are losing mass and are retreating under the background of climate warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.","Changes of climate, glaciers and runoff in China's monsoonal temperate glacier region during the last several decades",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+695403,"Since the late 1940s, snowmelt and runoff have come increasingly early in the water year in many basins in northern and central California. This subtle trend is most pronounced in moderate-altitude basins, which are sensitive to changes in mean winter temperatures. Such basins have broad areas in which winter temperatures are near enough to freezing that small increases result initially in the formation of less snow and eventually in early snowmelt. In moderate-altitude basins of California, a declining fraction of the annual runoff has come in April-June. This decline has been compensated by increased fractions of runoff at other, mostly earlier, times in the water year. Weather stations in central California, including the central Sierra Nevada, have shown trends toward warmer winters since the 1940s. A series of regression analyses indicate that runoff timing responds equally to the observed decadal-scale trends in winter temperature and interannual temperature variations of the same magnitude, suggesting that the temperature trend is sufficient to explain the runoff-timing trends. The immediate cause of the trend toward warmer winters in California is a concurrent, long-term fluctuation in winter atmospheric circulations over the North Pacific Ocean and North America that is not immediately distinguishable from natural atmospheric variability. The fluctuation began to affect California in the 1940s, when the region of strongest low-frequency variation of winter circulations shifted to a part of the central North Pacific Ocean that is teleconnected to California temperatures. Since the late 1940s, winter wind fields have been displaced progressively southward over the central North Pacific and northward over the west coast of North America. These shifts in atmospheric circulations are associated with concurrent shifts in both West Coast air temperatures and North Pacific sea surface temperatures.",LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC FORCING OF RECENT TRENDS TOWARD EARLY SNOWMELT RUNOFF IN CALIFORNIA,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2477126,"The aim of this study was to compare how conventional stem harvesting (CH) and whole-tree harvesting (WTH) in the first, and in some cases also in the second, thinning affect the needle nutrient status of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands in Finland. A series of 12 long-term field experiments was studied. The experiments were established during 1978-86. The effects of logging residue removal after thinnings on the needle nutrient concentrations were generally minor and without any overall trends, but there were differences between experiments. Trees tend to maintain their current needle nutrient concentrations at the same level by re-utilizing the nutrients stored in the older tissues and by changing C allocation in the whole tree. Thus, needle analysis should be combined with stem growth data in order to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of WTH on the nutrient status of trees.",Logging residue removal after thinning in boreal forests: long-term impact on the nutrient status of Norway spruce and Scots pine needles.,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1273641,"Grazing exclusion has been proposed as a method of restoring degraded grassland ecosystems. However, its effectiveness remains poorly understood in mountain-basin grasslands in arid regions. Thus, we investigated the plant community characteristics, C and N storage levels, and soil organic carbon and total nitrogen concentrations and storage within the upper 0-40 cm soil layer in a grazed grassland (CC) and a fenced grassland (FG) with grazing exclusion in mountain meadow (MM) and temperate typical steppe (TTS) habitats in a mountain basin ecosystem in an arid region of Central China, which are both vital grassland resources for livestock grazing and ecological conservation. In MM, our investigation revealed that grazing exclusion was beneficial to the productivity, coverage, height, diversity, and C and N storage of aboveground plants. However, grazing exclusion was not an effective option for soil C and N sequestration. In TT'S, grazing exclusion effectively improved the plant productivity, coverage, height, plant and soil C and N sequestration, although it was not beneficial for maintaining plant diversity. Our findings suggest that reduced or rotational grazing may be a butler choice than grazing exclusion in MM. In addition, considering the trade-off between biomass productivity and species diversify in ITS, short-term grazing exclusion should be considered. Additionally, grazing exclusion should be combined with other appropriate measures rather than operating on a standalone basis. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Effects of grazing exclusion on the grassland ecosystems of mountain meadows and temperate typical steppe in a mountain-basin system in Central Asia's arid regions, China",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+200585,"Flood-related fatalities in Africa, as well as associated economic losses, have increased dramatically over the past half-century. There is a growing global concern about the need to identify the causes for such increased flood damages. To this end, we analyze a large, consistent and reliable data-set of floods in Africa. Identification of causes is not easy given the diverse economic settings, demographic distribution and hydro-climatic conditions of the African continent. On the other hand, many African river basins have a relatively low level of human disturbance and, therefore, provide a unique opportunity to analyze climatic effects on floods. We find that intensive and unplanned human settlements in flood-prone areas appears to be playing a major role in increasing flood risk. Timely and economically sustainable actions, such as the discouragement of human settlements in flood-prone areas and the introduction of early warning systems are, therefore, urgently needed. Citation: Di Baldassarre, G., A. Montanari, H. Lins, D. Koutsoyiannis, L. Brandimarte, and G. Bloschl (2010), Flood fatalities in Africa: From diagnosis to mitigation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22402, doi: 10.1029/2010GL045467.",Flood fatalities in Africa: From diagnosis to mitigation,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1389000,"Meteorological and glaciological measurements obtained at 5873 m a.s.l. on Kersten Glacier, a slope glacier on the southern flanks of Kilimanjaro, are used to run a physically-based mass balance model for the period February 2005 to January 2006. This shows that net shortwave radiation is the most variable energy flux at the glacier-atmosphere interface, governed by surface albedo. The majority of the mass loss (similar to 65%) is due to sublimation (direct conversion of snow/ice to water vapour), with melting of secondary importance. Sensitivity experiments reveal that glacier mass balance is 2-4 times more sensitive to a 20% precipitation change than to a 1 degrees C air temperature change. These figures also hold when the model is run with input data representative of a longer term (1979-2004) mean period. Results suggest that a regional-scale moisture projection for the 21st century is crucial to a physically-based prediction of glacier retention on Africa's highest mountain. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society.",Mass balance of a slope glacier on Kilimanjaro and its sensitivity to climate,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2351196,"Persistent ocean warming has caused the rapid poleward shift of various tropical marine organisms. However, extreme cold events have been reported to have greater impacts on corals, yet no reports have elaborated how such cold events affect range-shifting tropical reef fishes in temperate waters. This study assessed benthic cover and assemblage structure of tropical reef fishes (Pomacentridae, Chaetodontidae, Scaridae, and Acanthuridae) on two reefs, dominated by tabulate Acropora corals, in Tosa Bay (33 degrees N, 133 degrees E), southwestern Japan. The study was conducted during winter and summer within 2 years (2017-2018), fortuitously covering periods before, during, and after the occurrence of an extreme cold event in early 2018. The event resulted in an approximately 2-month extremely low sea surface temperature (SST) of < 15 degrees C, causing massive bleaching and mortality of > 90% corals. About 80% of the fish species richness and > 80% of their abundance declined during the winter of 2018, with a slow increase in their populations during the summer of 2018 as a consequence of the coral loss. The extremely low SST negatively affected non-established and breeding fish populations, while the massive coral loss severely affected corallivorous fishes. This study demonstrates the potential impact of extreme cold events on the persistent establishment of tropical reef fishes in temperate waters. Thus, our study highlights the potential instability of temperate waters as a refuge for range-shifting tropical reef fishes since extreme climatic events are predicted to increase amidst climate change. This may potentially impair benefits from the tropicalized temperate reef ecosystem services (e.g., local tourism and fishery industries).",Unpredictable extreme cold events: a threat to range-shifting tropical reef fishes in temperate waters,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+525955,"We used improved datasets on both climate and crop production to investigate climate trends during the crop growing period and their impacts on yields of major crops (rice, wheat, maize and soybean) in China by county, during 1980-2008. We found clear regional climate trends during this period, particularly for temperature. Such trends have had measurable impacts on crop yields, with a distinct spatial pattern. For the entire country, the planting area-weighted average showed that climate trends from 1980-2008 reduced wheat, maize and soybean yields by 1.27, 1.73 and 0.41%, respectively, while increasing rice yields by 0.56%. As a result, climate trends as a whole reduced wheat and maize production by 3.60 x 10(5) t and 1.53 x 10(6) t, respectively, and increased rice and soybean production by 7.44 x 10(4) t and 4.16 x 10(3) t, respectively. Estimates of climate impacts are smaller than previous estimates that used different scales, datasets and methods. The particular crops and regions that have been most affected and should be priorities for adaptation are maize and wheat in arid and semi-arid areas of northern and northeast China, where droughts induced by increases in temperature and solar radiation could limit the benefits of improved thermal conditions. Climate warming decreases crop yields by accelerating crop development rate, and thus reducing crop growth duration and yield accumulation, and by increasing temperature extremes and heat stress.",Response of crop yields to climate trends since 1980 in China,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+583231,"We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 +/- 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) between 1902 and 2009. Using projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional 148 +/- 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 166 +/- 42 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), 175 +/- 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60), or 217 +/- 47 mm SLE (scenario RCP85) during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 +/- 66 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 313 +/- 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), or 424 +/- 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85). Up until approximately 2100, ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 similar to 2050 (RCP26), 2050 similar to 2060 (RCP45), 2070 similar to 2090 (RCP60), or 2070 similar to 2100 (RCP85).",Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+40372,"Yukon air temperature trends have been observed to change over the last several decades with an increase in annual, summer and winter air temperatures, while changes in precipitation have not been consistent. An assessment of freeze-up and break-up dates indicates that the ice cover season is becoming shorter with delays in freeze-up and advances in break-up timing. Mid-winter break-up events and associated flooding have been observed for the first time. Break-up water level trends suggest that break-up severity is increasing. These changes cannot be definitely attributed to climate change as there is some evidence suggesting that teleconnections may be a factor. The observed changes have significant implications pertaining to public safety, and economic impacts on property and infrastructure, transportation networks and hydroelectric operations. Ice jams and associated backwater and surges also affect aquatic ecosystems through impacts on biological and chemical processes.",Observed trends in the river ice regimes of northwest Canada,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+422246,"Background: The impacts of climate change on phenological responses of species and communities are well-documented; however, many such studies are correlational and so less effective at assessing the causal links between changes in climate and changes in phenology. Using grasshopper communities found along an elevational gradient, we present an ideal system along the Front Range of Colorado USA that provides a mechanistic link between climate and phenology. Methodology/Principal Findings: This study utilizes past (1959-1960) and present (2006-2008) surveys of grasshopper communities and daily temperature records to quantify the relationship between amount and timing of warming across years and elevations, and grasshopper timing to adulthood. Grasshopper communities were surveyed at four sites, Chautauqua Mesa (1752 m), A1 (2195 m), B1 (2591 m), and C1 (3048 m), located in prairie, lower montane, upper montane, and subalpine life zones, respectively. Changes to earlier first appearance of adults depended on the degree to which a site warmed. The lowest site showed little warming and little phenological advancement. The next highest site (A1) warmed a small, but significant, amount and grasshopper species there showed inconsistent phenological advancements. The two highest sites warmed the most, and at these sites grasshoppers showed significant phenological advancements. At these sites, late-developing species showed the greatest advancements, a pattern that correlated with an increase in rate of late-season warming. The number of growing degree days (GDDs) associated with the time to adulthood for a species was unchanged across the past and present surveys, suggesting that phenological advancement depended on when a set number of GDDs is reached during a season. Conclusions: Our analyses provide clear evidence that variation in amount and timing of warming over the growing season explains the vast majority of phenological variation in this system. Our results move past simple correlation and provide a stronger process-oriented and predictive framework for understanding community level phenological responses to climate change.",Grasshopper Community Response to Climatic Change: Variation Along an Elevational Gradient,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+645130,"This paper analyzes climate variability and change in the Urmia Lake Basin, northwest of Iran. Annual average of the following data time series has been analyzed by statistical methods: dry bulb temperature, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and number of rainy and snowy days. We have also used mean monthly temperature and precipitation data for analysis of drought spells for the period 1964-2005 to find out whether fluctuations in the lake level are attributable to natural drought. Our results indicate that mean precipitation has decreased by 9.2 % and the average maximum temperature has increased by 0.8A degrees C over these four decades. The seasonal changes are particularly visible in winter and spring. Results of the Palmer Drought Severity Index show that on average, drought episodes have hit the Urmia Lake Basin every 5 years and most of them reached severe levels, but recent droughts have become more intense and last longer.","Observed climate variability and change in Urmia Lake Basin, Iran",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+700711,"This study assessed the effect of temperature and thermal atmospheric conditions on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh. In particular, differences in the response to elevated temperatures between urban and rural areas were investigated. Generalized additive models (GAMs) for daily death counts, adjusted for trend, season, day of the month and age were separately fitted for urban and rural areas. Breakpoint models were applied for determining the increase in mortality above and below a threshold (equivalent) temperature. Generally. a V-shaped (equivalent) temperature-mortality curve with increasing mortality at low and high temperatures was observed. Particularly, urban areas suffered from heat-related mortality with a steep increase above a specific threshold. This adverse heat effect may well increase with ongoing urbanization and the intensification of the urban heat island due to the densification of building structures. Moreover, rising temperatures due to climate change could aggravate thermal stress. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",The effect of atmospheric thermal conditions and urban thermal pollution on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2323859,"A sand deficit on Florida's Atlantic coast affects sea turtle nesting, dune ecosystems, and storm protection. Ecological benefits of restoring very large deficits could exceed ecological costs. Dredging and beach nourishment databases revealed sand disposal dynamics and deficit size. Dredge-and-fill activities increased after 1950, peaked in the 1980s, then declined somewhat. Most sand disposal accompanied channel and harbor deepening; little was primarily for beach nourishment. Until the 1970s most dredged material was placed outside the coastal sand-sharing system (offshore and upland). After 1970, beach and nearshore disposal rapidly increased, but generally involved sand already within the system. Moreover, offshore and upland disposal did not immediately decline. To date, little sand has been returned. By 2003, net removal totaled similar to 130 X 10(6) m(3). Channels and harbors increased by similar to 70 X 106 m(3), leaving 60 X 10(6) m(3) of standing sand deficit. Jetties could have redistributed another 70 X 10(6) m(3) from beaches and dunes to inlet shoals. Overall, loss of beaches and dunes could approach 130 X 10(6) m(3). Engineering responses to past objections have improved both habitat suitability and longevity of nourished beaches. Through field trials and adaptive management principles, ecologists could now develop beach nourishment into a management tool to rebuild lost habitat, restore the sand deficit, and stockpile additional sand before nonessential channels and harbors are allowed to refill. With large projects, sand from offshore, upland, and ebb shoal sites and natural wave energy for stable beach building, beach and dune habitat can be restored within decades, better preparing threatened animals for rising sea level.",Recovering the sand deficit from a century of dredging and jetties along Florida's Atlantic coast: A reevaluation of beach nourishment as an essential tool for ecological conservation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1503459,"The slash-and-burn agriculture practiced across tropical dry regions results in the elimination of native vegetation. Upon field abandonment, the seed bank becomes a potentially important mechanism of natural regeneration at early successional stages. Soil properties and climate seasonality may affect seed bank characteristics, thus we analyzed the effects of these two factors on seed bank density and composition in agricultural fields of a seasonally dry tropical region of southern Mexico. Soil cores were collected for the rainy and the dry seasons in order to assess changes occurring in the seed bank from the time of harvest to the moment when succession could potentially start (the next rainy season). The 12 studied fields comprised three different soil types recognized by local inhabitants: sandy and stony, silty, and clayey soils, locally known as cascajo, black soil, and red soil, respectively. At each field 20 soil cores (8 cm diameter, 4.5 cm depth) were collected and mixed to form four pooled samples, which were placed in a greenhouse to induce germination. A total of 4,422 seedlings (2,291 seeds m(-2)) representing 40 species were recorded. The most abundant species were, in decreasing order, Melanthera nivea, Rhynchelytrum repens, Waltheria indica, Amaranthus scariosus, Digitaria bicornis, and Cenchrus pilosus. Herbs were the prevailing growth form (> 80% of total richness). No clear pattern was observed in the seed bank related to soil type; however, seed bank characteristics tended to be associated with the time of use of the agricultural fields, a variable that was not controlled in the study. Seed bank species richness was significantly larger in the dry season, and although seed density showed a similar trend, it was not significant. The studied seed banks contain no elements of the regional primary tropical dry forest, which suggests that seed banks in deforested areas cannot guarantee their maintenance beyond forested areas.",EDAPHIC AND SEASONAL HETEROGENEITY OF SEED BANKS IN AGRICULTURAL FIELDS OF A TROPICAL DRY FOREST REGION IN SOUTHERN MEXICO,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+506166,"Understanding the spatial distribution and driving factors of forest fire facilitates local forest fire management planning and optimization of resource allocation for fire prevention geographically. In this study, we analyzed the spatial pattern and drivers of forest fire in Fujian province, southeastern China, during 2000-2008 using Ripley's K-function and logistic regression (LR) model. The likelihood of fire occurrence was mapped based on the resultant model. The data regarding fire ignitions, weather conditions, vegetation, topography, infrastructure, and socioeconomic factors were extracted from ArcGIS environment. The study revealed that fire ignition was mainly clustered in space due to the comprehensive influence of different factors. Elevation, daily precipitation, and daily relative humidity were negatively associated with fire ignitions, whereas distance to settlement, population density, and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) impacted fire occurrence positively. The spatial distribution of fire occurrence likelihood was highly variable in Fujian: high fire likelihood was prevalent in the northern and southeastern parts of Fujian, whereas it was relatively low in the western province. Fire risk may be underestimated in some areas of Fujian according to the spatial patterns of the model residual, which should be paid more attention to in the forest fire management practice. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Wildfire ignition in the forests of southeast China: Identifying drivers and spatial distribution to predict wildfire likelihood,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+734620,"This study presents a comprehensive review of the published literature on the evidences of a changing climate in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) and its impacts on the glacio-hydrology of the region. The IHR serves as an important source of fresh water for the densely populated areas downstream. It is evident from the available studies that temperature is significantly increasing in all parts of the IHR, whereas precipitation is not indicative of any particular spatiotemporal trend. Glacio-hydrological proxies for changing climate, such as, terminus and areal changes of the glaciers, glacier mass balance, and streamflow in downstream areas, highlight changes more evidently in recent decades. On an average, studies have predicted an increase in temperature and precipitation in the region, along with increase in streamflow of major rivers. Such trends are already apparent in some sub-basins of the western IHR. The region is particularly vulnerable to changing climate as it is highly dependent on snow and glacier melt run-off to meet its freshwater demands. We present a systematic review of key papers dealing with changing temperature, precipitation, glaciers, and streamflow in the IHR. We discuss these interdisciplinary themes in relation to each other, in order to establish the present and future impacts of climatic, glaciological, and hydrological changes in the region. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:393-410. doi: 10.1002/wcc.393 For further resources related to this article, please visit the .",Changing climate and glacio-hydrology in Indian Himalayan Region: a review,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+1465820,"The climatological characteristics of drought in South Korea were investigated using daily precipitation data for 1777-2008. The effective drought index was used to quantify the drought intensity. As a result, five characteristics were discovered. First, South Korea can be divided into four drought subregions (the central, southern, and east coastal regions and Jeju Island) using hierarchical cluster analysis. Second, a map for long-term drought conditions in the four subregions is created that allows identification of the spatiotemporal distribution of droughts for the 231 yr at a glance. Third, droughts in South Korea have time scales that depend on the onset season. Spring (March-May) droughts tend to be short (<= 200 days) because the summer (June-September) rainy season follows. Summer droughts tend to be long (>200 days) because the dry season (October-February) follows. In the dry season, droughts tend to be sustained or become severe rather than being initiated or relieved. Fourth, 5-, 14-, 34-, and 115-yr drought cycles were identified by spectral analysis. The 5-yr cycle was dominant in all of the regions, the 14-yr cycle was observed over the southern and east coastal regions, and the 34-yr cycle was observed over the central region. Fifth, the most extreme drought occurred in 1897-1903 (return period: 233 yr) and was associated with the 115-yr drought cycle. After this drought, severe droughts (return period of >10 yr) occurred in 1927-30, 1938-40, 1942-45, 1951-52, 1967-69, and 1994-96; they were caused by the consecutive shortage of summer rainfall for two or more years.",A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Historical Droughts in Korea,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1501739,"Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21 st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region.","Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1861295,"Background: Maize is an important cereal crop, grown throughout the globe for human food and livestock feed, but biotic and abiotic factors had shown adverse effects on biomass and grain yield. Changing climatic conditions have imposed drought (water scarcity) as a major problem to combat with yield losses and biomass in maize and other cereals. Methods: The prescribed study was conducted to evaluate F-1 hybrids at seedling subject to 45% moisture level. The data was recorded and subjected to multivariate analysis to find the significant variation attributed by various traits under stress conditions for efficient root/shoot development. Results: Significant differences were found in F1 hybrids for all studied traits. Higher heritability was found for root length, shoot length and fresh shoot weight, while fresh shoot weight, dry shoot weight and dry root weight showed higher genetic advance. Significant correlation was found for dry root weight to fresh shoot length and fresh root length, fresh root weight to fresh root/shoot weight ratio and fresh shoot weight. The hybrids Sh-139xB-316, Raka-poshixB-316, B-327xB-316, Sh-139xEV-340, EV-1097QxEV-347, EV-1097QxEV-340, EV-1097QxPop/209 and B-327xEV-340 showed higher and positive heterosis and heterobeltiosis for most of the studied traits. To assess the overall variation on dependent structure, we used multivariate analysis, an important tool in breeding program, for efficient selection. Conclusions: EV-1097QxPop/209 and Sh-139xEV-340 showed significant results for root and shoot development under various water stress regimes at seedling stage, thus further studies should be carried out to find out the known and un-known loci regarding root and shoot development traits in high yielding maize cultivars under arid/semi-arid regions.",Screening for drought tolerance: comparison of maize hybrids under water deficit condition,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+552280,"This study presents a methodology to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in the Tsengwen creek watershed, Taiwan. Tsengwen reservoir, located in the Tsengwen creek watershed, is a multipurpose reservoir with a primary function to supply water for the ChiaNan Irrigation District. A simulation procedure was developed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources system. The simulation procedure includes a streamflow model, a weather generation model, a sequent peak algorithm, and a risk assessment process. Three climate change scenarios were constructed based on the predictions of three General Circulation Models (CCCM, GFDL, and GISS). The impacts of climate change on streamflows were simulated, and, for each climate change scenario, the agricultural water demand was adjusted based on the change of potential evapotranspiration. Simulation results indicated that the climate change may increase the annual and seasonal streamflows in the Tsengwen creek watershed. The increase in streamflows during wet periods may result in serious flooding. In addition, despite the increase in streamflows, the risk of water deficit may still increase from between 4 and 7 percent to between 7 and 13 percent due to higher agricultural water demand. The simulation results suggest that the reservoir capacity may need to be expanded. In response to the climate change, four strategies are suggested: (1) strengthen flood mitigation measures, (2) enhance drought protection strategies, (3) develop new water resources technology, and (4) educate the public.",Climate change impacts on water resources of the Tsengwen creek watershed in Taiwan,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+194265,"Long-term agricultural field experiments provide relevant information for questions being asked about the sustainability of managed forests, particularly as management regimes become more intensive. In this paper, concepts and criteria related to sustainable site productivity are reviewed and findings from a range of long-term agricultural field experiments are evaluated. Based on this evaluation, the following site productivity principles are identified: (1) soil organic matter is the Link between most management systems and sustainable site productivity; (2) nutrient deficiencies can be corrected; (3) soil texture is a key variable affecting soil organic matter and site productivity; (4) return of crop residues enhances soil organic matter and site productivity; and (5) productive cropping systems have environmental benefits. While technological advances have proven to be highly successful for enhancing long-term crop yields, they also have the potential to mask underlying declines in site productivity. This hypothesis needs to be rigorously tested. Agricultural field experiments show that crop productivity can be sustained for long time periods when appropriate management approaches are applied. Management requirements to achieve sustainability differ, however, depending on site-specific edaphic and climatic characteristics and the needs of the crop. Site productivity principles derived from agricultural field studies are also highly relevant to sustaining site productivity of managed forests. Several characteristics of managed forests should be considered when extrapolating conclusions from agricultural experiments. These include harvest removals of biomass and nutrients, residue type and distribution, management and system characteristics, and soil types used. Many characteristics associated with even intensively managed forests are sought as goals of conservation cropping systems and should contribute toward sustaining long-term site productivity. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.",Agricultural site productivity: principles derived from long-term experiments and their implications for intensively managed forests,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1530581,"This study investigates the mediating effect of college students' anti-phishing self-efficacy between Internet self-efficacy and anti-phishing behavior. Also the gender effect on the researched variables are concerned. The participants in the study were 434 university students who had experience using the Internet. The Internet self-efficacy scale (translated and modified based on Kim & Glassman scale, 2013), the self-designed anti-phishing self-efficacy scale, and the self-designed anti-phishing behavior scale were used in this study. This study used convenience sampling to conduct the survey, which resulted in 411 valid responses. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling are adopted to test the mediation effect. The results showed statistically significant differences in anti-phishing behavior and anti-phishing self-efficacy between female and male university students. The SEM analysis showed that Internet self-efficacy is a positive precedent to anti-phishing behavior, and anti-phishing self-efficacy significantly mediated the relation between Internet self-efficacy and anti-phishing behavior. This study suggests that educators could use strategies to improve Internet self-efficacy and anti-phishing self-efficacy in order to enhance learners' motivation and experience with anti-phishing. The Internet self-efficacy scale and the anti-phishing self-efficacy scale may be used as a reference for adaptive teaching materials. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",The mediating effect of anti-phishing self-efficacy between college students' internet self-efficacy and anti-phishing behavior and gender difference,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3704755,"The significance of research on the nazi-fascist exodus is manifold. First of all, it may put a restraint on the excess of imagination found in literary and cinematographic production narrating the escape and revenge against followers of Hitler and Mussolini. Secondly, it may help finding better explanations on the dynamics of political migration, given the fact that growing importance is being given to non-economic factors and it would be helpful to verify to what extent and how they have been activated in the post war period. Furthermore, it is accepted that (differently from what happens more recently), past flows involved the loser actors of any war. From this point of view, it would be peculiar that fascists, Nazis and collaborationists would not have to pay the price of defeat by leaving their respective motherland. As far as Italy is concerned, this hypothesis is indeed being reinforced by a significant number of interviews showing that the post war climate has had a strong impact on the decision to migrate of many repentant or unrepentant fascists. However, Italian historiography is silent on the matter. A larger corpus of literature is available in Germany, yet there is less propensity to consider Nazis as common migrants. Furthermore, there is no attempt to compare the experiences of different national groups (such as Italians and Germans), or either the developing experiences of exilées holding the same nationality in a given period of time. For example, there is no comparative study on the anti-fascist flows during the dictatorship, and fascist departures soon after it. Also, there is a lack of any comprehensive overview of political flights after 1945. We can argue that the trajectories of fascist and antifascist exilées were divergent, yet this is an assumption based on presumptive evidence and a number of testimonies indicating Europe as the destination for the leftists, and the New World chosen by the rightists. This essay aims at establishing a platform for discussion concerning these various issues.",A prospective comparison of nazi-fascist emigration after the Second World War,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+572187,"Eurasian fall snow cover changes have been suggested as a driver for changes in the Arctic Oscillation and might provide a link between sea-ice decline in the Arctic during summer and atmospheric circulation in the following winter. However, the mechanism connecting snow cover in Eurasia to sea-ice decline in autumn is still under debate. Our analysis is based on snow observations from 820 Russian land stations, moisture transport using a Lagrangian approach derived from meteorological re-analyses. We show that declining sea-ice in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) acts as moisture source for the enhanced Western Siberian snow depth as a result of changed tropospheric moisture transport. Transient disturbances enter the continent from the BKS region related to anomalies in the planetary wave pattern and move southward along the Ural mountains where they merge into the extension of the Mediterranean storm track.",Arctic moisture source for Eurasian snow cover variations in autumn,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+259864,"In the past few decades, innovative approaches such as Green Chemistry and Green Engineering have come out in order to set the basic principles for a more sustainable chemical industry. However, researchers also need a more scientific and quantitative tool to address the sustainability behind the application of those principles. Therefore, a multi-criteria approach based on life cycle thinking was proposed to investigate the production of 1,3-butadiene. Five indicators were selected to address sustainability: the Cumulative Energy Demand, the carbon footprint, the water depletion, a midpoint-oriented analysis method and an economic index. The use of renewable feedstock was evaluated in comparison with the traditional fossil-based route from naphtha. Two alternative pathways which use bio-ethanol were considered - the Lebedev and Ostromisslensky processes - evaluating the possibility to locate the plant in three different regions (the EU, Brazil and the US). Detailed analysis reveals how the use of bio-based feedstock leads to a significantly lower consumption of fossil sources, despite the higher exploitation of renewable resources leading to larger water withdrawals. Moreover, the assessment of the global warming potential reveals how bio-routes are far from able to be considered carbon-neutral. In addition, the ReCiPe single-score was used, showing greater sustainability of the Lebedev process compared with the traditional way. On the other hand, the two-step pathways (Ostromisslensky) result in the worst scores. An economic evaluation was also applied. The index reveals how the direct conversion into 1,3-butadiene seems more suitable than the two-step method, particularly in the case of production in the US.","Butadiene from biomass, a life cycle perspective to address sustainability in the chemical industry",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+601022,"The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic and environmental change, most notably in the spatial extent and thickness of the sea ice. Inuit communities in the Canadian Arctic are directly affected by these changes, with dramatic change in sea ice conditions documented in recent years. We use a case study from the Inuit community of lgloolik to examine the processes and conditions shaping human vulnerability to sea ice change. In 2006, the ocean froze 3 to 4 wk later than normal, with little remnant ice during the summer. lgloolik residents described this state of sea ice as anomalous, and Inuit observations were consistent with instrumental sea-ice data. We examined how community members experienced and responded to the anomalous ice conditions of 2006, using our analysis of this perceptual/behavioral data as a lens for exploring vulnerability and its determinants. Inuit observations shed light on the implications of such ice conditions for human use of this arctic environment, including reduced ability to procure traditional food. Effects on the community were exacerbated by other climate-related conditions and non-climatic stresses, including increasing fuel prices and longer-term socio-cultural trends. The case study also indicates significant. adaptive capacity: anomalous ice years are increasingly becoming the norm and there is evidence that social learning and responsive local institutions are reducing the physical risks of using the ice in a changing climate. Climatic extremes documented in 2006 are projected to be the new mid-century norm as a result of anthropogenic climate change. The case study therefore offers a baseline for examining potential future vulnerabilities.","Sea ice, climate change, and community vulnerability in northern Foxe Basin, Canada",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+12620,"Temperature change may affect physiology, distribution, morphology and adaptation of animals. Using individuals captured in Nanchong and Laojunshan Nature Reserve of Sichuan province in western China, we tested head-body length variation in the mole-shrew (Anourosorex squamipes) in relation to annual temperature and elevation. Our results indicate that head-body length of both males and females decreases with decreasing ambient temperature along an altitudinal gradient. Likewise, there is significant monthly variation in head-body length, with individuals in warmer months being larger than that colder ones. The seasonal variation in head-body length suggests the higher predator risk and lower food availability in cold months.",Head-body length variation in the mole-shrew (Anourosorex squamipes) in relation to annual temperature and elevation,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+50036,"Characteristics of temperature-dependent metabolic adaptation, as well as their implications for climate-dependent energy budgets, biogeography and fitness are reviewed and analysed for populations of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua in relation to findings in other fish species from northern and Southern hemispheres, especially various species of eelpout. (Zoarcidae). The analysis builds on the recently posited concept of oxygen- and capacity-dependent thermal tolerance in aquatic ectotherms. Mechanistic physiological studies are used to explain both functional differences between populations and current observations (such as the northward movement of cod, or the changes in seasonal abundance of eelpout due to global warming). Available data support the hypothesis that natural selection favours individuals that maximize growth and energy efficiency at the expense of ranges of thermal tolerance. The levels of energy turnover are Subject to the constraints of resource availability and temperature variability. Temperature variability in the cold, such as in the sub-Arctic, causes a rise in maintenance costs at the expense of growth, but possibly in favour of motility, and thus of foraging capacity. These different trends are mirrored in higher capacities for gene expression of key enzymes involved in aerobic metabolism (during cold acclimation) in northern as compared to southern cod populations of the East Atlantic. However, detailed patterns, as well as many of the underlying mechanisms, remain underexplored, especially with respect to the suggested hierarchy of energy allocation to energy budget components.",Cod and climate in a latitudinal cline: physiological analyses of climate effects in marine fishes,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+798529,"The distribution of annual plant species greatly expands with degradation and desertification of natural grass-lands caused by climate change and overgrazing. However, limited understanding of how their life history traits respond to climate change limits our ability to predict their adaptive strategies in the future. Here we explored effects of warming on phenological sequences and seed production of annual Koenigia islandica using an open top chamber on the Tibetan plateau from 2014 to 2016. Our results indicate that warming significantly delayed first budding-set and complete leaf coloring, and prolonged the durations of leaf coloring and the total activity period in the alpine region. Warming significantly reduced ratio of reproductive and vegetative phases relative to no warming in 2016. Warming significantly increased plant height at first flowering, seed number and mass, but had no significant effect on seed size in 2016. There was a positive correlation between seed germination time and seed number, and there were negative correlations between seed size and first fruiting-set and flowering duration. Soil temperatures and soil moisture in May and June had positive and negative correlations with seed number and mass per plant, respectively. Our results suggest that the annual plant primarily promotes its fitness through an increase in seed number and mass per plant due to an increase in plant height, rather than by altering phenophases or prolong duration of reproductive phase under future warming in the alpine meadow.",Responses of phenology and seed production of annual Koenigia islandica to warming in a desertified alpine meadow,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+216024,"Understanding the response of fish populations to habitat change mediated by sea level rise (SLR) is a key component of ecosystem-based management. Yet, no direct link has been established between habitat change due to SLR and fish population production. Here we take a coupled modeling approach to examine the SLR-habitat-fish relationship based on projections of habitat change resulting from a 0.26 m increase in sea level by 2100 as input for a spatially-explicit individual-based model (SEIBM) of juvenile fish growth and mortality. This coupled modeling approach allows for an examination of both mechanistic and behavioral responses to habitat change, as well as the projected impact of these responses on population production. Habitat changes described with the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6.0.1) in response to SLR included a conversion of marsh and higher elevation habitat types into other structural types and open water, and an increase in overall fragmentation. These habitat changes were combined with measures of temporal change in dynamic habitat variables to form a habitat mosaic. The impact of changes in this mosaic on juvenile fish growth and mortality was largely dependent on movement strategy employed in the SEIBM followed by changes in dynamic habitat, and then changes in structural habitat projected by the SLAMM model. Movement strategy and SLR effects interacted strongly, which suggests that how fish respond to habitat change is a critical factor to understanding population-level effects. Overall, projected SLR effects on fish distribution most consistent with field data were initially negative for net fish production, but became net positive by the terminal year of SLR as the positive effects of fragmentation became most important. These results are consistent with empirical studies of coastal marsh production in the Gulf of Mexico and demonstrate the importance of incorporating a holistic measure of habitat quality and fish behavioral responses into any projection of SLR effects on estuarine fish production. Published by Elsevier B.V.",An ecological model of the habitat mosaic in estuarine nursery areas: Part II-Projecting effects of sea level rise on fish production,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+87551,"Dynamic vegetation models have been widely used for analyzing ecosystem dynamics and their interactions with climate. Their performance has been tested extensively against observations and by model intercomparison studies. In the present analysis, Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), a state-of-the-art ecosystem model, was evaluated by performing a global sensitivity analysis. The study aims at examining potential model limitations, particularly with regard to long-term applications. A detailed sensitivity analysis based on variance decomposition is presented to investigate structural model assumptions and to highlight processes and parameters that cause the highest variability in the output. First- and total-order sensitivity indices were calculated for selected parameters using Sobol's methodology. In order to elucidate the role of climate on model sensitivity, different climate forcings were used based on observations from Switzerland. The results clearly indicate a very high sensitivity of LPJ-GUESS to photosynthetic parameters. Intrinsic quantum efficiency alone is able to explain about 60% of the variability in vegetation carbon fluxes and pools for a wide range of climate forcings. Processes related to light harvesting were also found to be important together with parameters affecting forest structure (growth, establishment, and mortality). The model shows minor sensitivity to hydrological and soil texture parameters, questioning its skills in representing spatial vegetation heterogeneity at regional or watershed scales. In the light of these results, we discuss the deficiencies of LPJ-GUESS and possibly that of other, structurally similar, dynamic vegetation models and we highlight potential directions for further model improvements.",Sensitivity analysis of a process-based ecosystem model: Pinpointing parameterization and structural issues,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3941812,"Anopheles mascarensis has been demonstrated to be a vector of human malaria in the East coast of Madagascar. Here, we present original data obtained from 1996 to 2003 on the distribution, biology and vectorial capacity of An. mascarensis in the Middle-West of Madagascar. This species is consistently exophilic both for its trophic and resting behaviour. This accounts for the absence of clear impact of any indoor insecticide spraying. This species is mainly zoophilic, but can occasionally bite humans, which explains a low sporozoitic index (1/2218 = 0.045%). The densities of human landing mosquitoes are most of the time very low, with the exception of a peak between May and August at the beginning of the dry season. It implies that the vector's efficiency is very low but not insignificant in the Middle-West of Madagascar, a situation opposite to what is observed on the East coast. The vectorial efficiency of An. mascarensis and An. arabiensis would enable to maintain a low malarial endemicity in the Middle-West, even in the complete absence of An. funestus.","Anopheles mascarensis of Meillon 1947, a malaria vector in the middle west of Madagascar?",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+562461,"Because of global land surface warming, extreme temperature events are expected to occur more often and more intensely, affecting the growth and development of the major cereal crops in several ways, thus affecting the production component of food security. In this study, we have identified rice and maize crop responses to temperature in different, but consistent, phenological phases and development stages. A literature review and data compilation of around 140 scientific articles have determined the key temperature thresholds and response to extreme temperature effects for rice and maize, complementing an earlier study on wheat. Lethal temperatures and cardinal temperatures, together with error estimates, have been identified for phenological phases and development stages. Following the methodology of previous work, we have collected and statistically analysed temperature thresholds of the three crops for the key physiological processes such as leaf initiation, shoot growth and root growth and for the most susceptible phenological phases such as sowing to emergence, anthesis and grain filling. Our summary shows that cardinal temperatures are conservative between studies and are seemingly well defined in all three crops. Anthesis and ripening are the most sensitive temperature stages in rice as well as in wheat and maize. We call for further experimental studies of the effects of transgressing threshold temperatures so such responses can be included into crop impact and adaptation models.",Temperatures and the growth and development of maize and rice: a review,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1627337,"Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are losing large amounts of water to the world's oceans. However, estimates of their contribution to sea level rise disagree. We provide a consensus estimate by standardizing existing, and creating new, mass-budget estimates from satellite gravimetry and altimetry and from local glaciological records. In many regions, local measurements are more negative than satellite-based estimates. All regions lost mass during 2003-2009, with the largest losses from Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia, but there was little loss from glaciers in Antarctica. Over this period, the global mass budget was -259 +/- 28 gigatons per year, equivalent to the combined loss from both ice sheets and accounting for 29 +/- 13% of the observed sea level rise.",A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+201300,"Changes in the amount and timing of the discharge of major Eurasian Arctic rivers have been well documented, but whether or not these changes can be attributed to climatic factors or to the construction of manmade reservoirs remains unclear. Here we endeavor to identify the key processes (snow cover and air temperature) that have regulated seasonal streamflow fluctuations in the Eurasian Arctic over the last half-century (1958-1999) and to understand the regional coherence of timing trends, using a set of Eurasian Arctic rivers selected specifically because they are free of known effects of dams. We find a shift toward earlier onset of spring runoff as measured by a modest change in the spring pulse onset (26 of 45 stations) and a strong change in the centroid of timing (39 of 45 stations). Winter streamflows increased over the period of record in most rivers, suggesting that trends observed by others in larger regulated Eurasian Arctic rivers may not be entirely attributable to reservoir construction. Upward trends in air temperature appeared to have had the largest impact on spring and summer flows for tributaries in the coldest of the major Eurasian Arctic river basins (e. g., the Lena). While the overall duration of snow cover has not significantly changed across the Eurasian Arctic, snow cover disappearance has trended earlier in the year and appears to be related to the increased May and snowmelt season fractional flows.",Change in spring snowmelt timing in Eurasian Arctic rivers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1293885,"Climate change has a strong impact on vegetation dynamics and the relationship between temperature changes and shifts in plant development is well known. However, temperature does not change homogeneously and high spatial and temporal variabilities are possible. For a 65-year period from 1951-2015, we examined trends of mean air temperatures and bioclimatic parameters such as the onset of thermal growing season and two relevant phenological stages in Germany. We focused our analysis only on statistical significant trends. In order to compare them for the same spatial and temporal resolution, gridded datasets were used. From 1951-2015 spring air temperature (March-May) increased by 1.9 K. In the same time the average onset of thermal growing season started 20 days earlier and the beginning of cherry flowering and leaf unfolding of silver birch was advanced by 11 and 13 days, respectively. Nevertheless, a high spatial variability of trends was detected for all parameters. Strongest shifts were more pronounced in coastal areas of Germany and the regional investigation showed significantly stronger trends for North Germany than for South Germany. The study confirmed a strong synchronisation of the temporal and spatial changes in air temperature and the investigated bioclimatic parameters.","Spatial and temporal changes of spring temperature, thermal growing season and spring phenology in Germany 1951-2015",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+76085,"In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (AT(max)) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages < 65 and >= 65 during the months May-October for years 2000-2008. The most robust relationship was between AT(max) on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (AT(max) = 90-97 degrees F; 32.2-36.1 degrees C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (AT(max) = 99.5 degrees F; 37.5 degrees C). Heat threshold was defined as AT(max) at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (AT(max) = 106 and 108 degrees F; 41.1 and 42.2 degrees C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (AT(max) = 109 degrees F; 42.8 degrees C) and for all-cause mortality in females (AT(max) = 107 degrees F; 41.7 degrees C) and males < 65 years (AT(max) = 102 degrees F; 38.9 degrees C). Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.",Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1028204,"In recent years, an acceleration of global warming and various environmental pollution problems has been observed due to the increase in energy demand. Biomass, which has several advantages over more typical sources, is very popular as a green energy source. This study focuses on process modeling and analysis of biomass fast pyrolysis. The fast pyrolysis reaction mechanisms, proposed by previous researchers, are applied to the modeling of a fast pyrolysis reactor. This process analysis is performed according to operating conditions such as the reaction temperature, residence time, type of biomass and reactor type. To evaluate these results, the results of the process analysis of other researchers and the GC/MS (gas chromatograph-mass spectrometry) data of fast pyrolysis experiment are compared.",Comprehensive evaluation of various pyrolysis reaction mechanisms for pyrolysis process simulation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2357280,"Increases in tree mortality rates have been highlighted in different biomes over the past decades. However, disentangling the effects of climate change on the temporal increase in tree mortality from those of management and forest dynamics remains a challenge. Using a modelling approach taking tree and stand characteristics into account, we sought to evaluate the impact of climate change on background mortality for the most common European tree species. We focused on background mortality, which is the mortality observed in a stand in the absence of abrupt disturbances, to avoid confusion with mortality events unrelated to long-term changes in temperature and rainfall. We studied 372 974 trees including 7312 dead trees from forest inventory data surveyed across France between 2009 and 2015. Factors related to competition, stand characteristics, management intensity, and site conditions were the expected preponderant drivers of mortality. Taking these main drivers into account, we detected a climate change signal on 45% of the 43 studied species, explaining an average 6% of the total modelled mortality. For 18 out of the 19 species sensitive to climate change, we evidenced greater mortality with increasing temperature or decreasing rainfall. By quantifying the mortality excess linked to the current climate change for European temperate forest tree species, we provide new insights into forest vulnerability that will prove useful for adapting forest management to future conditions.",Background mortality drivers of European tree species: climate change matters,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+726097,"Background The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Methods Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. Results A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Conclusions Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital.","Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+718672,"The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced ""sharply"" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a ""sharply"" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.",Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+1296468,"In the San Francisco Estuary, California, the largest estuary on the Pacific Coast of North America, the frequency and intensity of drought and associated cyanobacteria blooms are predicted to increase with climate change. To assess the impact of water quality conditions on estuarine fish health during successive severe drought years with Microcystis blooms, we performed fish embryo toxicity testing with Delta Smelt and Medaka. Fish embryos were exposed to filtered ambient water collected from the San Francisco Estuary during the Microcystis bloom season in 2014 and 2015, the third and fourth most severe recorded drought years in California. Medaka embryos incubated in filtered ambient waters exhibited high mortality rates (>77%), which was mainly due to bacterial growth. Medaka mortality data was negatively correlated with chloride, and positively correlated with water temperature, total and dissolved organic carbon, and ambient and net chlorophyll a concentration. Delta Smelt embryo mortality rates were lower (<42%) and no prominent seasonal or geographic trend was observed. There was no significant correlation between the Delta Smelt mortality data and water quality parameters. Aeromonas was the dominant bacteria that adversely affected Medaka. The growth of Aeromonas was suppressed when salinity was greater than or equal to 1 psu and resulted in a significant reduction in mortality rate. Bacterial growth test demonstrated that the lysate of Microcystis cells enhanced the growth of Aeromonas. Toxin production by Microcystis is a major environmental concern, however, we conclude that dissolved substances released from Microcystis blooms could result in water quality deterioration by promoting growth of bacteria. Furthermore, a distinctive developmental deformity was observed in Medaka during the toxicity tests; somite formation was inhibited at the same time that cardiogenesis occurred and the functional heart was observed to be beating. The exact cause of the embryonic developmental deformity is still unknown. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Evaluation of water quality during successive severe drought years within Microcystis blooms using fish embryo toxicity tests for the San Francisco Estuary, California",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1298120,"A sequence of major flood events in Britain over the last two decades has prompted questions about the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on flood risk. Such questions are difficult to answer definitively, as a range of other factors are involved, but modelling techniques allow an assessment of how much the chance of occurrence of an event could have been altered by emissions. Here the floods of winter 2013/2014 in Great Britain are assessed by combining ensembles of climate model data with a national-scale hydrological model and, for one severely impacted river basin (the Thames), a detailed analysis of flood inundation and the increased number of residential properties placed at risk. One climate model ensemble represents the range of possible weather under the current climate, while 11 alternative ensembles represent the weather as it could have been had past emissions not occurred. The pooled ensemble results show that emissions are likely to have increased the chance of occurrence of these floods across much of the country, with a stronger influence on longer duration peaks (similar to 10 days or more) than for shorter durations (consistent with observations). However, there is substantial variation in results between alternative ensembles, with some suggesting likely decreases in the chance of flood occurrence, at least in some regions of the country. The influence on flows and property flooding varies spatially, due to both spatial variation in the influence on precipitation and variation in physical properties that affect the transformation of precipitation to river flow and flood impacts, including flood defences. This complexity highlights the importance of using hydrological modelling to attribute hydrological impacts from meteorological changes. Changes in snow occurrence in a warming climate are also shown to be important, with effects varying spatially.",Flood event attribution and damage estimation using national-scale grid-based modelling: Winter 2013/2014 in Great Britain,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3302015,"Low flow is very sensitive to climate change and human intervention, especially in arid regions. In this study, changes of the 7-day low flow along the most important rivers of Iran's Namak Lake Basin were investigated using nonparametric (Mann-Kendall and modified-Mann-Kendall) tests. A significant diminishing trend was observed in 72.2% of stations during the period of 1970-2012. The northern part of the basin lacked a significant trend, while in other parts of the basin, the descending trend was distributed uniformly. On the other hand, the changes of the annual rainfall during this period showed no clear trend (a significant trend in 36% and non-significant trend in 64% of stations), and the identified pattern of its changes was complicated on the basin scale and during the year. On a monthly scale, a significant decreasing trend was observed in March as one of the most productive months of the year in 49% of the stations. In addition, rainfall reduction was significant (over 35%) over the past 15 years in more than 71% of the stations. Also, changes in the proportion of seasonal rainfall and rainfall regime were considerable. The share of winter and spring rainfall showed a diminishing trend in 90% and 82% of stations, respectively. Also, rainfall regime based on precipitation concentration index (PCI) revealed a tendency to disorder (in 53% of stations). The annual temperature and temperature of October and February indicated a strong ascending trend in 92%, 71%, and 64% of stations, respectively, which can be effective during snow melting in basins with snow-rainy regimes and increasing evapotranspiration. Groundwater level changes also showed that, in the studied plains, the average water table drawdown was between 0.31 and 1.33 m/year. Therefore, the observed trend of low flow rates in this basin reflects the impact of climate change, where both direct and indirect human interference has led to the exacerbation of this situation.",Spatiotemporal changes of 7-day low flow in Iran's Namak Lake Basin: impacts of climatic and human factors,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+635193,"Roughly one-third of the rural population in developing countries lives in arid and semiarid regions, facing recurrent water scarcity. This is likely to become an even more common situation with climate change. This paper analyzes the impact of rainfall fluctuations during the gestational period on health at birth in the Brazilian semiarid, highlighting the role of water scarcity as a determinant of early life health. We find that negative rainfall shocks are robustly correlated with higher infant mortality, lower birth weight and shorter gestation periods. Mortality effects are concentrated on intestinal infections and malnutrition, and are greatly minimized when the local public health infrastructure is sufficiently developed (municipality coverage of piped water and sanitation). We also find that effects are stronger during the fetal period (2nd trimester of gestation), for children born during the dry season, and for mortality immediately after birth. Our estimates suggest that expansions in public health infrastructure would be a cost-effective way of reducing the response of infant mortality to rainfall scarcity. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Water scarcity and birth outcomes in the Brazilian semiarid,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+619351,"The potential effects of ocean warming on marine predators are largely unknown, though the impact on the distribution of prey in vertical space may have far reaching impacts on diving predators such as southern elephant seals. We used data from satellite-tracked southern elephant seals from Marion Island to investigate the relationship between their dive characteristics (dive depths, dive durations and time-at-depth index values) and environmental variables (temperature at depth, depth of maximum temperature below 100 m, frontal zone and bathymetry) as well as other demographic and behavioural variables (migration stage, age-class, track day and vertical diel strategy). While other variables, such as bathymetry and vertical diel strategy also influenced dive depth, our results consistently indicated a significant influence of temperature at depth on dive depths. This relationship was positive for all groups of animals, indicating that seals dived to deeper depths when foraging in warmer waters. Female seals adjusted their dive depths proportionally more than males in warmer water. Dive durations were also influenced by temperature at depth, though to a lesser extent. Results from time-at-depth indices showed that both male and female seals spent less time at targeted dive depths in warmer water, and were presumably less successful foragers when diving in warmer water. Continued warming of the Southern Ocean may result in the distribution of prey for southern elephant seals shifting either poleward and/or to increasing depths. Marion Island elephant seals are expected to adapt their ranging and diving behaviour accordingly, though such changes may result in greater physiological costs associated with foraging.",Elephant seal dive behaviour is influenced by ocean temperature: implications for climate change impacts on an ocean predator,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+8368,"Comparative analysis has been a little used approach to the teaching of hydrology. Instead, hydrology is often taught by introducing fundamental principles with the assumption that they are sufficiently universal to apply across most any hydrologic system. In this paper, we illustrate the value of using comparative analysis to enhance students' insights into the degree and predictability of future non-stationarity in flood frequency analysis. Traditionally, flood frequency analysis is taught from a statistical perspective that can offer limited means of understanding the nature of non-stationarity. By visually comparing graphics of mean daily flows and annual peak discharges (plotted against Julian day) for watersheds in a variety of locales, distinct differences in the timing and nature of flooding in different regions of the US becomes readily apparent. Such differences highlight the dominant hydroclimatological drivers of different watersheds. When linked with information on the predictability of hydroclimatic drivers (hurricanes, atmospheric rivers, snowpack melt, convective events) in a changing climate, such comparative analysis provides students with an improved physical understanding of flood processes and a stronger foundation on which to make judgments about how to modify statistical techniques for making predictions in a changing climate. We envision that such comparative analysis could be incorporated into a number of other traditional hydrologic topics.",Using comparative analysis to teach about the nature of nonstationarity in future flood predictions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+790613,"In this study, maximum dry spell length and number of dry spell periods of rainy seasons in the upper Baro-Akobo River basin which is a part of the Nile basin, Western Ethiopia, were investigated to analyse the drought trend. Daily rainfall records of the period 1972-2000 from eight rain gauge stations were used in the analysis, and Mann-Kendall test was used to test trends for significance. Furthermore, the beginning and end of the trend development in the dry spell were also tested using the sequential version of Mann-Kendall test. Results have shown that there is neither clear monotonic trend found in dry spell for the basin nor significant fluctuation in the onset, cession and duration of rainfall in the Baro-Akobo river basin. This sufficiently explains why rain-fed agriculture has suffered little in the western part of Ethiopia. The predictable nature of dry spell pattern may have allowed farmers to adjust to rainfall variability in the basin. Unlike many parts of Ethiopia, the Baro-Akobo basin climate variability is not a limiting factor for rain-fed agriculture productivity which may contribute significantly to national food security.","Dry spell, onset and cessation of the wet season rainfall in the Upper Baro-Akobo Basin, Ethiopia",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1885237,"Climate change in the Kuznetsky Alatau (Western Siberia) highlands (on its eastern macroslope) was investigated using data of the Nenasthaya weather station collected for the last 40 years. It is the only highland station functioning now in the area under investigation. Basing on the correlation between average daily temperatures for the period 1974-1975, obtained at the Nenasthaya station and meteopost Karatash (located in front of the Kartash Glacier), we believe that the Nenasthaya one is enough representative for analysis of the climate in this glacio-nival zone. Linear trends for mean summer temperatures and annual precipitation sums had been calculated. Analysis of the linear trends has indicated that for the last 40 years the average summer temperature in the Kuznetsky Alatau increased by 1.3 degrees C with the growth rate of 0.33 degrees C/10 years. Average annual precipitation has also increased by 320 mm (the growth rate is 80 mm/10 years). These climatic changes did cause corresponding reactions of glaciers in the area. The analysis of current changes in the glacio-nival systems demonstrated that different morphological types of glaciers reacted to the current climate change in different ways. Small slope glaciers and perennial snowfields degraded significantly (70-90% of the area had melted) due to the temperature rise. Some ones transformed into the category of perennial snowfields. Large corrie glaciers located on the leeward slopes of wide watersheds in the negative relief forms did only slight retreat. They mostly continue to exist because the amount of accumulated snow mass increased and, thus, compensated the ablation. The largest decrease in the area of glaciers took place in 2002-2004. Since 2005, large glaciers stopped to degrade and were in relative equilibrium with climate. This article presents estimation of dynamics of the Kuznetsky Alatau glaciers since their cataloging made in the 1980-s, and it contains the detailed information about fluctuation of areas of glaciers Karatash. 56, Cherno-Iyussky. 83, and Tsentralny. 87 in 1975-2015 received from data obtained in field measurements and remote sensing methods. The area increase of some individual glaciers since 2005 is shown. An effort to compare dynamics of main climatic factors having impact on the glaciations with the dynamics of the glacier areas had been made.",Climate change and the size of glaciers in the Kuznetsky Alatau Mountains between 1975 and 2015,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+8469,"We connected a Cellular, dynamic. spatial urban growth model and a semi-distributed Continuous hydrology model to quantitatively predict streamflow in response to possible future urban growth at a basin scale. The main goal was to demonstrate the utility of the approach for informing public planning policy and investment choices. The Hydrological simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was set Lip and calibrated for the Kishwaukee River basin in the Midwestern USA and was repeatedly run with various land use scenarios generated either by the urban growth model (LEAMluc) or hypothetically. The results indicate that (1) the land use scenarios generated by LEAMluc result in little changes in total runoff but some noticeable changes in surface flow; (2) the argument that low flows tend to decrease with more urbanized areas in a basin was confirmed ill this study but the selection of indicators for low flows can result ill misleading conclusions; (3) dynamic simulation modeling by connecting a distributed land use change model and a semi-distributed hydrological model call be a good decision Support tool demanding reasonable amount. of efforts and capable of long-term scenario-based assessments. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Assessing hydrological impact of potential land use change through hydrological and land use change modeling for the Kishwaukee River basin (USA),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2108635,"Ecosystem-based management (EBM) is commonly applied to achieve sustainable use of marine resources. For EBM, regular ecosystem-wide assessments of changes in environmental or ecological status are essential components, as well as assessments of the effects of management measures. Assessments are typically carried out using indicators. A major challenge for the usage of indicators in EBM is trophic interactions as these may influence indicator responses. Trophic interactions can also shape trade-offs between management targets, because they modify and mediate the effects of pressures on ecosystems. Characterization of such interactions is in turn a challenge when testing the usability of indicators. Climate variability and climate change may also impact indicators directly, as well as indirectly through trophic interactions. Together, these effects may alter interpretation of indicators in assessments and evaluation of management measures. We developed indicator networks - statistical models of coupled indicators - to identify links representing trophic interactions between proposed food-web indicators, under multiple anthropogenic pressures and climate variables, using two basins in the Baltic Sea as a case study. We used the networks to simulate future indicator responses under different fishing, eutrophication and climate change scenarios. Responsiveness to fishing and eutrophication differed between indicators and across basins. Almost all indicators were highly dependent on climatic conditions, and differences in indicator trajectories > 10% were found only in comparisons of future climates. In some cases, effects of nutrient load and climate scenarios counteracted each other, altering how management measures manifested in the indicators. Incorporating climate change, or other regionally non-manageable drivers, is thus necessary for an accurate interpretation of indicators and thereby of EBM measure effects. Quantification of linkages between indicators across trophic levels is similarly a prerequisite for tracking effects propagating through the food web, and, consequently, for indicator interpretation. Developing meaningful indicators under climate change calls for iterative indicator validations, accounting for natural processes such as trophic interactions and for trade-offs between management objectives, to enable learning as well as setting target levels or thresholds triggering actions in an adaptive manner. Such flexible strategies make a set of indicators operational over the long-term and facilitate success of EBM.","Trophic Interactions, Management Trade-Offs and Climate Change: The Need for Adaptive Thresholds to Operationalize Ecosystem Indicators",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1292032,"Changes in drought around the globe are among the most daunting potential effects of climate change. However, changes in droughts are often not well distinguished from changes in aridity levels. As drought constitutes conditions of aridity, the projected declines in mean precipitation tend to override changes in drought. This results in projections of more dire changes in drought than ever. The overestimate of changes can be attributed to the use of 'static' normal precipitation in the derivation of drought events. The failure in distinguishing drought from aridity is a conceptual problem of concern, particularly to drought policymakers. Given that the key objective of drought policies is to determine drought conditions, which are rare and so protracted that they are beyond the scope of normal risk management, for interventions. The main objective of this Case Study of Brazil is to demonstrate the differences between projections of changes in drought based on 'static' and '30-year dynamic' precipitation normal conditions. First we demonstrate that the 'static' based projections suggest 4-fold changes in the probability of drought-year occurrences against changes by the dynamic normal precipitation. The 'static-normalmean precipitation' based projections tend to be monotonically increasing in magnitude, and were arguably considered unrealistic. Based on the '30-year dynamic' normal precipitation conditions, the 13-member GCM ensemble median projection estimates of changes for 2050 under rcp4.5(1) and rcp8.5(2) suggest: (i) Significant differences between changes associated with rcp4.5 and rcp8.5, and are more noticeable for droughts at long than short timescales in the 2070; (ii) Overall, the results demonstratemore realistic projections of changes in drought characteristics over Brazil than previous projections based on 'static' normal precipitation conditions. However, the uncertainty of response of droughts to climate change in CMIP5 simulations is still large, regardless of GCMs selection and translation processes undertaken. (c) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Accounting for dynamics of mean precipitation in drought projections: A case study of Brazil for the 2050 and 2070 periods,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1392223,"Among polymers used as encapsulant in photovoltaic (PV) modules, poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate), or EVA, is the most widely used, for its low cost and acceptable performances. When exposed to weather conditions, EVA undergoes degradation that affects overall PV performances. Durability prediction of EVA, and thus of the module, is a hot topic in PV process industry. To date, the literature lacks of long-term predictive computational models to study EVA aging. To fill this gap, a computational framework, based on the finite element method, is proposed to simulate chemical reactions and diffusion processes occurring in EVA. The developed computational framework is valid in either case of environmental or accelerated aging. The proposed framework enables the identification of a correspondence between induced degradation in accelerated tests and actual exposure in weathering conditions. The developed tool is useful for the prediction of the spatio-temporal evoltition of the chemical species in EVA, affecting its optical properties. The obtained predictions, related to degradation kinetics and discoloration, show a very good correlation with experimental data taken from the literature, confirming the validity of the proposed formulation and computational approach. The framework has the potential to provide quantitative comparisons of degradation resulting from any environmental condition to that gained from accelerated aging tests, also providing a guideline to design new testing protocols tailored for specific climatic zones.",A reaction-diffusion formulation to simulate EVA polymer degradation in environmental and accelerated ageing conditions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+669732,"Species' range shifts in response to ongoing climate change have been widely documented, but although complex spatial patterns in species' responses are expected to be common, comprehensive comparisons of species' ranges over time have undergone little investigation. Here, we outline a modeling framework based on historical and current species distribution records for disentangling different drivers (i.e. climatic vs. nonclimatic) and assessing distinct facets (i.e. colonization, extirpation, persistence, and lags) of species' range shifts. We used extensive monitoring data for stream fish assemblages throughout France to assess range shifts for 32 fish species between an initial period (1980-1992) and a contemporary one (2003-2009). Our results provide strong evidence that the responses of individual species varied considerably and exhibited complex mosaics of spatial rearrangements. By dissociating range shifts in climatically suitable and unsuitable habitats, we demonstrated that patterns in climate-driven colonization and extirpation were less marked than those attributed to nonclimatic drivers, although this situation could rapidly shift in the near future. We also found evidence that range shifts could be related to some species' traits and that the traits involved varied depending on the facet of range shift considered. The persistence of populations in climatically unsuitable areas was greater for short-lived species, whereas the extent of the lag behind climate change was greater for long-lived, restricted-range, and low-elevation species. We further demonstrated that nonclimatic extirpations were primarily related to the size of the species' range, whereas climate-driven extirpations were better explained by thermal tolerance. Thus, the proposed framework demonstrated its potential for markedly improving our understanding of the key processes involved in range shifting and also offers a template for informing management decisions. Conservation strategies would greatly benefit from identifying both the geographical patterns and the species' traits associated with complex modifications of species' distributions in response to global changes.",Illuminating geographical patterns in species' range shifts,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2089952,"Based on a spatial model, the Martinique beaches and coastal wetlands are examined to identify the risks of coastal squeeze. In many cases coastal development prevents coasts from adapting to increased erosion rates by shifting landward. Also tourism infrastructure augments the vulnerability of beach reduction and mangrove squeeze. The majority of coastal constructions and especially tourist hotels are built within the zone at risk to flooding and erosion. Spatial analysis based on a conducted GIS model is carried out that evaluates the tourist destinations most vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. If sea level rises and beach reduction becomes an increasing problem the attractiveness of Martinique beaches as a tourist destination is likely to decline. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Evaluation of coastal squeeze and its consequences for the Caribbean island Martinique,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1542531,"The Eurasian ice-sheet complex (EISC) was the third largest ice mass during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), after the Antarctic and North American ice sheets. Despite its global significance, a comprehensive account of its evolution from independent nucleation centres to its maximum extent is conspicuously lacking. Here, a first-order, thermomechanical model, robustly constrained by empirical evidence, is used to investigate the dynamics of the EISC throughout its build-up to its maximum configuration. The ice flow model is coupled to a reference climate and applied at 10 km spatial resolution across a domain that includes the three main spreading centres of the Celtic, Fennoscandian and Barents Sea ice sheets. The model is forced with the NGRIP palaeo-isotope curve from 37 ka BP onwards and model skill is assessed against collated flowsets, marginal moraines, exposure ages and relative sea level history. The evolution of the EISC to its LGM configuration was complex and asynchronous; the western, maritime margins of the Fennoscandian and Celtic ice sheets responded rapidly and advanced across their continental shelves by 29 ka BP, yet the maximum aerial extent (5.48 x 10(6) km(2)) and volume (7.18 x 10(6) km(3)) of the ice complex was attained some 6 ka later at c. 22.7 ka BP. This maximum stand was short-lived as the North Sea and Atlantic margins were already in retreat whilst eastern margins were still advancing up until c. 20 ka BR High rates of basal erosion are modelled beneath ice streams and outlet glaciers draining the Celtic and Fennoscandian ice sheets with extensive preservation elsewhere due to frozen subglacial conditions, including much of the Barents and Kara seas. Here, and elsewhere across the Norwegian shelf and. North Sea, high pressure subglacial conditions would have promoted localised gas hydrate formation. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.","The build-up, configuration, and dynamical sensitivity of the Eurasian ice-sheet complex to Late Weichselian climatic and oceanic forcing",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+136763,"Disturbance affects most terrestrial ecosystems and has the potential to shape their responses to chronic environmental change. Scrub-oak vegetation regenerating from fire disturbance in subtropical Florida was exposed to experimentally elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration (+350ll(-1)) using open-top chambers for 11yr, punctuated by hurricane disturbance in year 8. Here, we report the effects of elevated CO2 on aboveground and belowground net primary productivity (NPP) and nitrogen (N) cycling during this experiment. The stimulation of NPP and N uptake by elevated CO2 peaked within 2yr after disturbance by fire and hurricane, when soil nutrient availability was high. The stimulation subsequently declined and disappeared, coincident with low soil nutrient availability and with a CO2-induced reduction in the N concentration of oak stems. These findings show that strong growth responses to elevated CO2 can be transient, are consistent with a progressively limited response to elevated CO2 interrupted by disturbance, and illustrate the importance of biogeochemical responses to extreme events in modulating ecosystem responses to global environmental change.","Fire, hurricane and carbon dioxide: effects on net primary production of a subtropical woodland",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2389259,"In the context of climate change, climate variability has become a major issue in recent years in sub-Saharan countries. Climate information services (CIS) could be a vital resort for African producers to better manage climatic risks. This study aimed to identify CIS needs and analyze the most adapted dissemination channels while also determining factors that influence smallholder access. This was done with a gender lens where 1170 farmers (20% women) were surveyed from 11 regions in Senegal. Two probit regressions were performed. Results revealed that men and women have different needs for CIS, with 95% of women requesting information relating to the onset date of rainy season against 90% for men (p < 5%). Similarly, 46% of women prefer rural radios as a CIS broadcast channel compared to 39% of men (p < 5%). Also, the main factors influencing the access are ethnicity, area of residence, and farmers' perceptions of the utility of CIS. Among women, the native status and the willingness to act against climate change affect the access to CIS. Thus, to facilitate access to CIS for relevant decision-making, it remains important to capacitate farmers and to consider the producers' organizations as platforms for CIS dissemination and trainings.",Factors influencing gendered access to climate information Services for farming in Senegal,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+327065,"This study analyzes the changes in glacier zones and snow composition of Glacier No. 1 in the Tianshan Mountains of China since 1961, and their possible relations with climate. It is found that precipitation dominated the snow composition and that air temperature and precipitation controlled the distribution of glacier zones, but interannual change in precipitation had a relatively large effect on glacier zones and snow composition during 1963-1981 (P1(0)) and 1963-1989 (P1(1)). However, during 1982-2007 (P2(0)) and 1990-2007 (P2(1)), the air temperature rise (0.57A degrees C/10 a for P2(0), 0.76A degrees C/10 a for P2(1)) was more influential than the precipitation increase (51.3 mm/10 a for P2(0)), and air temperature was principally responsible for the evolution of glacier zones and snow composition most probably resulting from recent climate warming.",Changes in physical features of Glacier No. 1 of the Tianshan Mountains in response to climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+736399,"Mediterranean regions worldwide, and southwest (SW) Australia in particular, are characterised by their high plant biodiversity, fire-prone vegetation, and substantial conservation challenges in relation to human land use, expanding populations and changing climate. Recent climate change is evident in SW Australia, with markedly decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures since the 1970s. Fire management in SW Australia, historically focused in the southern forests, but now also engaged with a rapidly expanding wildland-urban interface, is faced with the formidable challenge of increased fire likelihoods due to increased fire danger weather under a warming climate, and more human-caused ignitions as population growth proceeds. Here, we review key components of the fire-environment relationship, the use of fuel reduction burning as a wildfire mitigation strategy, and the potential impacts of changing climate on fire regimes and fire management in the SW, including ecological impacts. We draw comparisons between SW and southeastern (SE) Australia, contrasting the recent history of fire in these two regions, how they differ, and how this helps us to understand the circumstances under which planned fire may be an effective approach to fire hazard mitigation in SW Australia. Evidence suggests that fuel reduction burning in wildlands produces little benefit for wildfire control. While wildfire sizes differ between regions, a concentration of resources and fire management near human infrastructure and not in wildlands seems warranted with increasing emphasis on fire suppression and fuels management.",Climate Change and the Management of Fire-Prone Vegetation in Southwest and Southeast Australia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3903339,"Embedded in various events on Earth are proxy data that allow us to map the temperature of the Earth over many years. In this work the temperature fluctuations for a number of proxy data sets were analyzed to express any periodic and quasi-periodic fluctuations in the data sets. The changing patterns in tree ring growth and temperature fluctuations in Greenland ice core samples, along with other data, were tested with a goal to understanding periodic and quasi-periodic patterns in paleoclimate variability. Some quasi-periodic signatures have been identified that predate the Industrial Revolution, during much of which direct data on temperature are not available. Earth temperature appears to have a number of periodic and quasi-periodic intervals that indicate both global warming and global cooling cycles. From comparisons of temperature proxy data for varying time periods a number of ""quasi-cycles"" have been identified that appear to be periodic while being frequency modulated. The well-known sunspot cycle of eleven years persists in all of the proxies studied that had data spanning a decade or less. In addition, long-term time intervals show both cycles extending from about 600 years to 500,000 years during which the temperature increased and decreased in a quasiperiodic way. From a study of the long-term changes, a base can be established upon which recent green-house gas effects on temperature can be impressed. © Common Ground, James Otto and James A. Roberts.",Tests of periodic and quasi-periodic fluctuations in paleoclimate data sets,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2364648,"Antibiotic resistance has become a major health concern; thus, there is a growing interest in exploring the occurrence of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in the environment as well as the factors that contribute to their emergence. Aquatic ecosystems provide an ideal setting for the acquisition and spread of ARGs due to the continuous pollution by antimicrobial compounds derived from anthropogenic activities. We investigated, therefore, the pollution level of a broad range of antibiotics and ARGs released from hospital and urban wastewaters, their removal through a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and their presence in the receiving river. Several antimicrobial compounds were detected in all water samples collected. Among antibiotic families, fluoroquinolones were detected at the highest concentration, especially in hospital effluent samples. Although good removal efficiency by treatment processes was observed for several antimicrobial compounds, most antibiotics were still present in WWTP effluents. The results also revealed that copy numbers of ARGs, such as bla(TEM) (resistance to beta-lactams), qnrS (reduced susceptibility to fluoroquinolones), ermB (resistance to macrolides), sulI (resistance to sulfonamides) and tetW (resistance to tetracyclines), were detected at the highest concentrations in hospital effluent and WWTP influent samples. Although there was a significant reduction in copy numbers of these ARGs in WWTP effluent samples, this reduction was not uniform across analyzed ARGs. Relative concentration of ermB and tetW genes decreased as a result of wastewater treatment, whereas increased in the case of bla(TEM), still and qnrS genes. The incomplete removal of antibiotics and ARGs in WWTP severely affected the receiving river, where both types of emerging pollutants were found at higher concentration in downstream waters than in samples collected upstream from the discharge point. Taken together, our findings demonstrate a widespread occurrence of antibiotics and ARGs in urban and hospital wastewater and how these effluents, even after treatment, contribute to the spread of these emerging pollutants in the aquatic environment. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Occurrence of antibiotics and antibiotic resistance genes in hospital and urban wastewaters and their impact on the receiving river,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+630521,"In the international negotiations aimed at reaching an agreement to reduce the greenhouse-gas emissions that are driving global warming, the developed and developing countries are talking past each other. The developed world is speaking the language of efficiency, while the developing world speaks the language of justice. Economic theory and the concept of efficiency are fine for answering the question of who should reduce, but that is not the contentious issue. When it comes to the hotly contested issue of who should pay, economic theory offers no guidance, and the developing world is right to insist that we look to principles of justice. This Article considers three kinds of approaches to the who-should-pay question: 1) those that take status quo emissions levels as their starting point; 2) those that allocate emissions rights on a per capita basis; and 3) those that allocate the costs of emissions reductions on the basis of ability to pay. The Article then considers three possible models for conceptualizing the who-should-pay question in light of widely shared principles of justice: 1) the property model views it as a problem of dividing and allocating a commonly held property right the capacity of the atmosphere to absorb greenhouse gases; 2) the tort model views it as a question of how to allocate costs when one party causes injury to another; and 3) the tax model views it as a situation in which a group of persons or entities are all engaged in a common enterprise to promote the common good and must allocate the costs of that enterprise. The Article evaluates each of the three approaches to the who-should-pay question under each of these three models of justice, and concludes that the per capita approach is the clear winner. It comports best with the property and tort models of justice, and with respect to the tax model, it comes in a close second. A rough calculation reveals that, if a per capita approach is indeed the most just, then the recent proposals by developing countries that the developed countries each contribute 1% of their gross domestic product to adaptation and mitigation efforts in the developing world is quite reasonable, perhaps even a bargain. Finally, the Article considers and responds to several counterarguments against the per capita approach.",ALLOCATING THE COSTS OF THE CLIMATE CRISIS: EFFICIENCY VERSUS JUSTICE,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3885605,"The effect of Zr addition to Al rich binary α-Al - Al 3 Ni eutectic cast alloy (Al-3.1 at.% Ni) in enhancing the microstructural stability and strength at high temperature is demonstrated. On subsequent heat treatment after casting, nanometric coherent L1 2 ordered Al 3 Zr precipitates form inside the α-Al that strengthen the alloy. Additionally, remarkable stability of eutectic microstructure was observed even after 100 h of annealing at 400 °C. The synergetic effect of the strengthening of the α-Al matrix by coherent Al 3 Zr precipitates and the low coarsening rate of the Al 3 Ni rods results in a significant increase in high temperature hardness and yield strength of the alloy. The tensile yield strength of the annealed Al-3.1Ni-0.15Zr alloy (400 °C, 10 h) tested at 250 °C is found to be 185 ± 10 MPa, which is 1.5 times higher than the corresponding binary Al-3.1Ni alloy. The experimentally determined average rod size (radius) during annealing at 400 °C follows the classical matrix diffusion controlled LSW-based coarsening model for both binary Al-3.1Ni and ternary Al-3.1Ni-0.15Zr alloys. The calculated coarsening rate constant values based on modified LSW coarsening model are 10.3 and 4.1 nm 3 /s for Al-3.1Ni and Al-3.1Ni-0.15Zr alloys, respectively. Atom probe tomographic (APT) investigations of the heat-treated ternary alloy unambiguously reveal segregation of Zr solute at the αAl/Al 3 Ni interface in addition to the presence of the strengthening Al 3 Zr ordered precipitates in the α-Al matrix. The segregation hinders the interdiffusion of Al and Ni in the eutectic and, thereby, increasing the stability of the eutectic phase at high temperature. © 2019 Acta Materialia Inc.",On the origin of a remarkable increase in the strength and stability of an Al rich Al-Ni eutectic alloy by Zr addition,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2339217,"Tree harvest and climate change can interact to have synergistic effects on tree species distribution changes. However, few studies have investigated the interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on tree species distributions. We assessed the interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on the distribution of 29 dominant tree species at 270 m resolution in the southern United States, while accounting for species demography, competition, urban growth and natural fire. We simulated tree species distribution changes to year 2100 using a coupled forest dynamic model (LANDIS PRO), ecosystem process model (LINKAGES) and urban growth model (SLEUTH). The distributions of 20 tree species contracted and nine species expanded within the region under climate change by end of 21st century. Distribution changes for all tree species were very slow and lagged behind the changes in potential distributions that were in equilibrium with new climatic conditions. Tree harvest and climate change interacted to affect species occurrences and colonization but not extinction. Occurrence and colonization were mainly affected by tree harvest and its interaction with climate change while extinctions were mainly affected by tree harvest and climate change. Synthesis and applications. Interactive effects of climate and tree harvest acted in the same direction as climate change effects on species occurrences, thereby accelerating climate change induced contraction or expansion of distributions. The overall interactive effects on species colonization were negative, specifically with positive interactive effects at leading edges of species ranges and negative interactive effects at trailing edges. Tree harvest generally did not interact with climate change to greatly facilitate or ameliorate species extinction. Our modelling results highlight the importance of considering disturbances and species demography (e.g. post-harvest regeneration dynamics) when predicting changes in tree distributions.",Climate change and tree harvest interact to affect future tree species distribution changes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2151559,"Global warming is already affecting the oceans through changes in water temperature, acidification, oxygen content and sea level rise, amongst many others. These changes are having multiple effects on marine species worldwide, with subsequent impacts on marine fisheries, peoples' livelihoods and food security. This work presents a review of the recent literature on the current and projected impacts of climate change on Canada's Pacific marine ecosystem. We find that there is an increasing number of studies in British Columbia focusing on changes in ocean conditions and marine species responses under climate change, including an emerging literature on the socio-economic impacts of these changes considered to be a knowledge gap. According to the literature, it is well established that ocean temperatures are increasing over the long-term, especially, in southern areas of British Columbia. Warming trends are increasing in the spring and are strongest in summer. However, there are important uncertainties regarding other climate drivers, such as oxygen concentration and acidification, stemming mainly from the insufficiency of data. Pacific salmon, elasmobranchs, invertebrates and rockfishes are amongst the most vulnerable species groups to climate change in British Columbia. Also, shifts in stock distribution and fish abundance under climate change may have a significant impact on fish supply affecting the livelihoods and food security of some British Columbians. The magnitude of these impacts is likely to vary according to a latitudinal gradient, with southern coastal areas being more affected than northern and central areas; challenging multiple areas of governance, such as equity and fishing access amongst First Nations; and institutional arrangements for transboundary stocks between the U.S. and Canada.",Climate change impact on Canada's Pacific marine ecosystem: The current state of knowledge,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2352624,"The paper presents the results of a research on peat bog spruce stands in Krkonose National Park and Protected Landscape area Orlicke hory Mts. in the Czech Republic. Four permanent research plots (PRP) were established, each of 0.25 ha (50 x 50 m) in size. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effects of climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and air pollution (SO2) on the radial increment and its dynamics in the top parts of the mountains in the period 1976 - 2014. The correlation of the radial increment showed particularly positive correlations with temperatures in the vegetation season of current year, while dependence of precipitation was essentially not found. On the other side the radial increment was negatively correlated with annual mortality of trees and mean annual SO2 concentrations. Considerable decrease of radial growth occurred in 1980 1990 because of deterioration in the health status and subsequent mortality of the spruce stands due to air pollution ecological load.",IMPACT OF CLIMATIC FACTORS AND SO2 AIR POLLUTION ON RADIAL GROWTH OF PEAT BOG SPRUCE STANDS IN CENTRAL SUDETES,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1586761,"Studying macroarthropod community responses to different land uses is particularly interesting in agroforestry for the conservation of Mediterranean landscapes, which need to be managed in terms of ecological and functional sustainability. Because of the sensitivity of many taxa to human impacts, we assessed the response of beetle assemblages at low taxonomic resolution (i.e. family level) to grazing in Mediterranean cork oak woodlands in northern Sardinia (Italy). Scarab assemblages were also analysed at the species level because of their ecological role in grazed areas. Cork oak woodland descriptors were also recorded in order to relate beetle assemblages to the forest structure. Over the entire sampling period, 4550 beetles belonging to 47 families were captured using pitfall traps. Multivariate analyses performed on ground-dwelling beetle data showed a distinct separation in terms of assemblages between grazed and ungrazed sites. The average diameter of cork oak trees and the degree of shrub cover were significantly linked to the beetle family assemblages. Constrained multivariate analyses indicated the significance of grazing, by both large and small domestic herbivores, and altitude, as variables determining the pattern of scarab beetle assemblages. Mantel test showed a significant correlation between the beetle and scarab dissimilarity matrices indicating a similar pattern for the two levels of identification. Our results show the predictive power of beetles at the family taxonomic level, as well as scarab beetles at the species level. These turned out to be valuable indicators in biomonitoring programmes in Mediterranean cork oak woodlands in order to increase the resilience of cork oak agroforestry systems under future global change scenarios.",Variability of beetle assemblages in Mediterranean cork oak woodlands: does the higher taxa approach reliably characterize a specific response to grazing?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+769405,"Accounting for water stress-induced tree mortality in forest productivity models remains a challenge due to uncertainty in stress tolerance of tree populations. In this study, logistic regression models were developed to assess species- specific relationships between probability of mortality (P-m) and drought, drawing on 8.1 million observations of change in vital status (m) of individual trees across North America. Drought was defined by standardized (relative) values of soil water content (W-s,W- z) and reference evapotranspiration (ETr, z) at each field plot. The models additionally tested for interactions between the water-balance variables, aridity class of the site (AC), and estimated tree height (h). Considering drought improved model performance in 95 (80) per cent of the 64 tested species during calibration (cross-validation). On average, sensitivity to relative drought increased with site AC (i.e. aridity). Interaction between water-balance variables and estimated tree height indicated that drought sensitivity commonly decreased during early height development and increased during late height development, which may reflect expansion of the root system and decreasing whole-plant, leaf-specific hydraulic conductance, respectively. Across North America, predictions suggested that changes in the water balance caused mortality to increase from 1.1% yr(-1) in 1951 to 2.0% yr(-1) in 2014 (a net change of 0.9 +/- 0.3% yr(-1)). Interannual variation in mortality also increased, driven by increasingly severe droughts in 1988, 1998, 2006, 2007 and 2012. With strong confidence, this study indicates that water stress is a common cause of tree mortality. With weak-to-moderate confidence, this study strengthens previous claims attributing positive trends in mortality to increasing levels of water stress. This 'learn-as-we-go' approach - defined by sampling rare drought events as they continue to intensify - will help to constrain the hydraulic limits of dominant tree species and the viability of boreal and temperate forest biomes under continued climate change.",Relationships between individual-tree mortality and water-balance variables indicate positive trends in water stress-induced tree mortality across North America,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+230221,"Phenology, the study of annually recurring life cycle events such as the timing of migrations and flowering, can provide particularly sensitive indicators of climate change(1). Changes in phenology may be important to ecosystem function because the level of response to climate change may vary across functional groups and multiple trophic levels. The decoupling of phenological relationships will have important ramifications for trophic interactions, altering food-web structures and leading to eventual ecosystem-level changes. Temperate marine environments may be particularly vulnerable to these changes because the recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependent on synchronization with pulsed planktonic production(2,3). Using long-term data of 66 plankton taxa during the period from 1958 to 2002, we investigated whether climate warming signals(4) are emergent across all trophic levels and functional groups within an ecological community. Here we show that not only is the marine pelagic community responding to climate changes, but also that the level of response differs throughout the community and the seasonal cycle, leading to a mismatch between trophic levels and functional groups.",Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+892432,"Migration is a widely used adaptation response to climate and weather variability. In this paper, we investigate how changes and variability in weather may affect internal migration through the agriculture channel. Using panel data for 50 districts of Pakistan, we estimate an instrumental variables regression model that allows us to analyse the impact of weather-driven changes in the crop revenue per hectare on the inter-district migration. Results show that temperature has a nonlinear effect, i.e. as temperature increases, the crop revenue per hectare initially increases and then declines. Furthermore, temperature variability has a negative effect on the expected crop revenue per hectare. A 1% weather-driven decrease in the crop revenue per hectare induces, on average, around 2% (0.02% point) decrease in the in-migration rate into a district. Predicted increases in temperature and its variability during 2016-2035 (relative to 1971-1998) are likely to decrease crop revenues in relatively warm districts and increase them in cooler districts. These effects would decrease the in-migration rate in 18-32 districts and increase the rate in the remaining districts. Thus, the extent and scope of the impacts of weather on migration in Pakistan depend on a district's geographic location and the variability of temperature in the future.","Weather variability, agricultural revenues and internal migration: evidence from Pakistan",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+61813,"This review article shows an overview of the climate change challenges to animal food production. Emphasize is given to the current climate change and global warming scientific theories and political trends, according to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). Examples of the negative effects of climate change are provided in livestock, in terms of heat stress and vector disease transmission, and loss due to droughts and floods with Mexican case studies. Livestock impact on greenhouse gases is described as well with some mitigation measurements through sustainable and/or organic animal welfare friendly- production systems resumed.",Climate change impacts on animal food production,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2331954,"Global seagrass research efforts have focused on shallow coastal and estuarine seagrass populations where alarming declines have been recorded. Comparatively little is known about the dynamics of deep-water seagrasses despite evidence that they form extensive meadows in some parts of the world. Deep-water seagrasses are subject to similar anthropogenic threats as shallow meadows, particularly along the Great Barrier Reef lagoon where they occur close to major population centres. We examine the dynamics of a deep-water seagrass population in the GBR over an 8 year period during which time a major capital dredging project occurred. Seasonal and inter-annual changes in seagrasses were assessed as well as the impact of dredging. The seagrass population was found to occur annually, generally present between July and December each year. Extensive and persistent turbid plumes from a large dredging program over an 8 month period resulted in a failure of the seagrasses to establish in 2006, however recruitment occurred the following year and the regular annual cycle was re-established. Results show that despite considerable inter annual variability, deep-water seagrasses had a regular annual pattern of occurrence, low resistance to reduced water quality but a capacity for rapid recolonisation on the cessation of impacts.",Dynamics of a deep-water seagrass population on the Great Barrier Reef: annual occurrence and response to a major dredging program,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+648424,"Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the hydrologic cycle, creating changes in freshwater resources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that, as a result, floods and prolonged droughts will take place at increasingly frequent periods. The Mediterranean has been described as one of the main climate change ""hot-spots"", with recent simulations showing a collective picture of substantial drying and warming. This effect appears more pronounced during warm periods, when the seasonal decrease of precipitation can exceed control climatology by 25-30%. Despite the decreasing annual rainfall trend, an increase in the amount and intensity of wintertime rainfall is evident. However, the scientific question on the quantitative impact of these signals to small scale coastal watersheds and Mediterranean islands has not been answered. The state-of-the-art Ensembles dataset was employed to assess the impact of the changing climate on the water availability of the island of Crete at basin scale. Here, the Ensembles precipitation and temperature data is used as input for a rainfall-runoff model previous calibrated for the whole island with the principle of regionalization. Data analysis for the period 1970-2100 reveals an overall decreasing precipitation trend which, combined with a temperature rise, leads to substantial reduction of water availability. Quantitative results of hydrological change provide the data required to improve knowledge and adaptation policy to water shortages.",Severe climate-induced water shortage and extremes in Crete,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+674511,"Deciduous shrubs are expected to rapidly expand in the Arctic during the coming decades due to climate warming. A transition towards more shrub-dominated tundra may have large implications for the regional surface energy balance, permafrost stability and carbon storage capacity, with consequences for the global climate system. However, little information is available on the natural long-term shrub growth response to climatic variability. Our aim was to determine the climate factor and time period that are most important to annual shrub growth in our research site in NE-Siberia. Therefore, we determined annual radial growth rates in Salix pulchra and Betula nana shrubs by measuring ring widths. We constructed shrub ring width chronologies and compared growth rates to regional climate and remotely sensed greenness data. Early summer temperature was the most important factor influencing ring width of S. pulchra (Pearson's r = 0.73, p < 0.001) and B. nana (Pearson's r = 0.46, p < 0.001). No effect of winter precipitation on shrub growth was observed. In contrast, summer precipitation of the previous year correlated positively with B. nana ring width (Pearson's r = 0.42, p < 0.01), suggesting that wet summers facilitate shrub growth in the following growing season. S. pulchra ring width correlated positively with peak summer NDVI, despite the small coverage of S. pulchra shrubs (<5% surface cover) in our research area. We provide the first climate-growth study on shrubs for Northeast Siberia, the largest tundra region in the world. We show that two deciduous shrub species with markedly different growth forms have a similar growth response to changes in climate. The obtained shrub growth response to climate variability in the past increases our understanding of the mechanisms underlying current shrub expansion, which is required to predict future climate-driven tundra vegetation shifts.",What are the main climate drivers for shrub growth in Northeastern Siberian tundra?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2359402,"Paleomagnetic data suggest that the early Cryogenian (Sturtian) glaciation extended to sea level at low latitude. The impact of this dramatic environmental change on biota, and the composition of ecosystems in the immediate aftermath of the Sturtian glaciation remain virtually unknown. Here we report the discovery of abundant agglutinated tests in organic-rich carbonates directly overlying Sturtian glacial deposits from two different paleocontinents: the Rasthof Formation of the Congo craton in northern Namibia and the Tsagaan Oloom Formation of the Dzabkhan terrane in Mongolia. The most abundant tests preserve morphological and compositional characters consistent with those found in at least two different families of modern lobose testate amoebae (Amoebozoa), a group of heterotrophic microbial eukaryotes. The presence of spatially and compositionally variable clay minerals, quartz and microcline on the test walls is a signature of widespread biological agglutination. The post-glacial fossil assemblages differ from the most common pre-Sturtian vase-shaped fossil testate amoebae, perhaps as a result of different preservational mechanisms or of the appearance of new forms after the glaciation. The apparent local abundance of eukaryotic body fossils in the post-Sturtian carbonates suggests that the Cryogenian limestones and dolostones may host a currently unexplored fossil record of modern eukaryotes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Agglutinated tests in post-Sturtian cap carbonates of Namibia and Mongolia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1306561,"The Pacific Northwest is the most highly glacierized region in the conterminous United States (858 glaciers; 466 km(2)). These glaciers have displayed ubiquitous patterns of retreat since the 1980s mostly in response to warming air temperatures. Glacier melt provides water for downstream uses including agricultural water supply, hydroelectric power generation, and for ecological systems adapted to cold reliable streamflow. While changes in glacier area have been studied within the region over an extended period of time, the hydrologic consequences of these changes are not well defined. We applied a high-resolution glacio-hydrological model to predict glacier mass balance, glacier area, and river discharge for the period 1960-2099. Six river basins across the region were modeled to characterize the regional hydrological response to glacier change. Using these results, we generalized past and future glacier area change and discharge across the entire Pacific Northwest using a k-means cluster analysis. Results show that the rate of regional glacier recession will increase, but the runoff from glacier melt and its relative contribution to streamflow display both positive and negative trends. In high-elevation river basins enhanced glacier melt will buffer strong declines in seasonal snowpack and decreased late summer streamflow, before the glaciers become too small to support streamflow at historic levels later in the 21st century. Conversely, in lower-elevation basins, smaller snowpack and the shrinkage of small glaciers result in continued reductions in summer streamflow.","Glacier Recession and the Response of Summer Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1960-2099",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+90533,"The impact of global warming on phenology has been widely studied, and almost consistently advancing spring events have been reported. Especially in alpine regions, an extraordinary rapid warming has been observed in the last decades. However, little is known about phenological phases over the whole vegetation period at high elevations. We observed 12 phenological phases of seven tree species and measured air temperature at 42 sites along four transects of about 1000m elevational range in the years 2010 and 2011 near Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. Site- and species-specific onset dates for the phenological phases were determined and related to elevation, temperature lapse rates and site-specific temperature sums. Increasing temperatures induced advanced spring and delayed autumn phases, in which both yielded similar magnitudes. Delayed leaf senescence could therefore have been underestimated until now in extending the vegetation period. Not only the vegetation period, but also phenological periods extended with increasing temperature. Moreover, sensitivity to elevation and temperature strongly depends on the specific phenological phase. Differences between species and groups of species (deciduous, evergreen, high elevation) were found in onset dates, phenological response rates and also in the effect of chilling and forcing temperatures. Increased chilling days highly reduced forcing temperature requirements for deciduous trees, but less for evergreen trees. The problem of shifted species associations and phenological mismatches due to species-specific responses to increasing temperature is a recent topic in ecological research. Therefore, we consider our findings from this novel, dense observation network in an alpine area of particular importance to deepen knowledge on phenological responses to climate change.",Shifting and extension of phenological periods with increasing temperature along elevational transects in southern Bavaria,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+711440,"Background: Gastrointestinal infections, a substantial public health problem worldwide, have been associated with single weather factors but the joint effect of multiple weather factors on gastrointestinal infections remains unclear. Methods: We conducted a retrospective time-series analysis to investigate effects of weather conditions on hospitalizations for gastrointestinal infections (GIH) in New York State in July and August from 1991 to 2004. Applying generalized additive model (GAM), we evaluated the associations between daily GIH count and multiple weather factors including temperature, humidity, and precipitation (0-10 lag days), adjusting for long term trend, seasonality, and calendar effects. Results: Maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum universal apparent temperature (UAT) showed that each degrees C increase in temperature was significantly associated with an increase (0.70-0.96%) in daily GIH count, with the greatest impacts observed at lag 1. Extreme heat (EH: >90th percentile) (3.68% at lag 1) and precipitation (0.31% at lag 4) showed larger impacts on increases of GIH and a clear dose-response relationship for EH. Stratified analyses showed that the impacts of extreme heat on GIH tend to be greater among Hispanics, blacks, females, and those with bacterial infections. Conclusion: We found that high maximum and minimum temperature, UAT, precipitation, and extreme heat in summer significantly increased the risks of GIH in NYS. Our findings also suggest that bacteria might be a significant cause for GIH in the summer, and minority, female and those with bacterial infection may be more vulnerable to heat's effects on GIH. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Did summer weather factors affect gastrointestinal infection hospitalizations in New York State?,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1497289,"The purpose of this paper is to assess the mass changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), Ice Sheets over Antarctica, and Land glaciers and Ice Caps with a global mascon method that yields monthly mass variations at 10,242 mascons. Input for this method are level 2 data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) system collected between February 2003 and June 2013 to which a number of corrections are made. With glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) corrections from an ensemble of models based on different ice histories and rheologic Earth model parameters, we find for Greenland a mass loss of -278 +/- 19 Gt/yr. Whereas the mass balances for the GrIS appear to be less sensitive to GIA modeling uncertainties, this is not the case with the mass balance of Antarctica. Ice history models for Antarctica were recently improved, and updated historic ice height data sets and GPS time series have been used to generate new GIA models. We investigated the effect of two new GIA models for Antarctica and found -92 +/- 26 Gt/yr which is half of what is obtained with ICE-5G-based GIA models, where the largest GIA model differences occur on East Antarctica. The mass balance of land glaciers and ice caps currently stands at -162 +/- 10 Gt/yr. With the help of new GIA models for Antarctica, we assess the mass contribution to the mean sea level at 1.47 +/- 0.09 mm/yr or 532 +/- 34 Gt/yr which is roughly half of the global sea level rise signal obtained from tide gauges and satellite altimetry.",A mascon approach to assess ice sheet and glacier mass balances and their uncertainties from GRACE data,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+677894,"Anthropogenic activities have altered the climate and led to changes in the water cycle. Understanding the climate change and hydrological responses is critical to derive adaptive strategies for sustainable water resources management. In this study, we diagnosed the trends of primary climate elements and hydrological components during the past half century (1960-2009) for the humid Xiangjiang River Basin in central-southChina at multiple temporal and spatial scales. The air temperature trend demonstrated an overall warming climate but with a quicker pace in recent years; however, the wind speed reduced significantly in the early period, and this downtrend had largely disappeared after the mid-1990s. Under such a shifting climate, the hydrological responses were not monotonic during the past 50 years: the evapotranspiration behaved in a decreasing trend in the early 35 years (1960-1994), followed by an uptrend in the later period (1995-2009). The stepwise analysis of soil water content and baseflow demonstrated a wetting trend followed by a drying one but with a steeper slope, indicating an accelerated drying trend which may cause a concern in stream water availability especially in the dry season. Spatial trend analysis showed that some areas experienced a downtrend (drying) in the dry season, but most areas had an uptrend (wetting) in the wet season for the whole study period. Overall, the analyses of temporal and spatial changes are useful for decision makers to deal with the continuing changes in climate and hydrology. This study also highlighted the necessity of climate change studies at multiple temporal and spatial scales.","Climate change and consequences on the water cycle in the humid Xiangjiang River Basin, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+27607,"Since models of global warming predict that climatic changes will be greatest in the Arctic and might already be in progress, it is prudent to attempt to understand the rapidly changing thermal regime on Eurasian cold regions.  In this paper the author tries to evaluate the probable catastrophic implications of global climatic change in the cold regions of Eurasia.  The impact on Man activities in permafrost regions is discussed.",GLOBAL WARMING AND PERMAFROST IN EURASIA - A CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+232856,"Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 over this century are predicted to cause global average surface ocean pH to decline by 0.1-0.3 pH units and sea surface temperature to increase by 1-4 degrees C. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments to investigate the impacts of CO2-induced ocean acidification (pCO(2) = 324, 477, 604, 2553 mu atm) and warming (25, 28, 32 degrees C) on the calcification rate of the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea, a widespread, abundant and keystone reef-builder in the Caribbean Sea. We show that both acidification and warming cause a parabolic response in the calcification rate within this coral species. Moderate increases in pCO(2) and warming, relative to near-present-day values, enhanced coral calcification, with calcification rates declining under the highest pCO(2) and thermal conditions. Equivalent responses to acidification and warming were exhibited by colonies across reef zones and the parabolic nature of the corals' response to these stressors was evident across all three of the experiment's 30-day observational intervals. Furthermore, the warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the end of the twenty-first century caused a fivefold decrease in the rate of coral calcification, while the acidification projected for the same interval had no statistically significant impact on the calcification rate-suggesting that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat than acidification for this important coral species.",The reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea exhibits parabolic responses to ocean acidification and warming,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+23968,"Changes in land cover affect climate through the surface energy and moisture budgets. Here we assess the importance of these biogeophysical effects for present-day climate, and quantify the radiative forcing of historical climate change by land use change for comparison with radiative forcings due to anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. We also discuss the implications of biogeophysical effects for the use of forestry as a tool for mitigating climate change through carbon sequestration. Our model results suggest that since most historical deforestation has taken place in temperate regions where the main climatic effect is an increase in surface albedo, the dominant biogeophysical effect of past land cover change has been a cooling. The northern mid-latitude agricultural regions are simulated to be approximately 1-2 K cooler in winter and spring in comparison with their previously forested state. This conflicts with the suggestion that land use change is responsible for the warming observed over the 20th century. The increase in albedo by 1750 is simulated to exert a negative radiative forcing of approximately -2 W m(-2) locally over Europe, China and India, suggesting a potential anthropogenic influence on climate before fossil fuel burning began. The present-day global mean radiative forcing by anthropogenic surface albedo change relative to the natural state is simulated to be -0.2 W m(-2), which is comparable with the estimated forcings relative to pre-industrial times by stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, N2O, the halocarbons, and the direct effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In cold regions, afforestation or reforestation would decrease the surface albedo and induce a positive radiative forcing (warming) which could partly or completely offset the negative forcing (cooling) due to carbon sequestration. This suggests that carbon sink plantations could be less effective than expected at reducing warming, and could even cause further warming. However, we note that reforestation (or avoided deforestation) in tropical regions could exert a double cooling effect through carbon sequestration and increased evaporation and cloud cover. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.",Biogeophysical effects of land use on climate: Model simulations of radiative forcing and large-scale temperature change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+785195,"Temperature drives the metabolism of ectothermic organisms and impacts ecosystem functioning. Anthropogenic activities have been changing historical temperatures of freshwater ecosystems with a wide range of consequences for ecosystem processes such as leaf litter decomposition. Here we explored temperature effects on the performance of the amphipod Gammarus pseudolimnaeus, a dominant detritivore in its range. We first measured oxygen consumption under six temperatures and fitted a thermal performance curve which yielded an optimal range between 24 and 26A degrees C. We then measured several organismal traits at four temperatures leading up to the determined optimal range. We quantified leaf litter mass loss (through feeding), somatic growth and survival under starvation at 7, 11, 17 and 23A degrees C. Leaf litter loss was significantly lower only at the lowest temperature, with no detected differences among other treatments. Somatic growth rates increased with increasing temperature within the tested range. Organisms at warmer temperatures tended to die of starvation faster in comparison to those at colder temperatures. Our results suggest that warming may enhance leaf litter loss in certain parts of the year, but that warming could intensify organism mortality under starvation and compromise local population persistence.",Effects of temperature on the performance of a freshwater amphipod,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+446505,"Accurate predictions of nutrient acquisition by plant roots and mycorrhizas are critical in modelling plant responses to climate change. We conducted a field experiment with the aim to investigate root nutrient uptake in a future climate and studied root production by ingrowth cores, mycorrhizal colonization, and fine root N and P uptake by root assay of Deschampsia flexuosa and Calluna vulgaris. Net root growth increased under elevated CO2, warming and drought, with additive effects among the factors. Arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization increased in response to elevated CO2, while ericoid mycorrhizal colonization was unchanged. The uptake of N and P was not increased proportionally with root growth after 5 years of treatment. While aboveground biomass was unchanged, the root growth was increased under elevated CO2. The results suggest that plant production may be limited by N (but not P) when exposed to elevated CO2. The species-specific response to the treatments suggests different sensitivity to global change factors, which could result in changed plant competitive interactions and belowground nutrient pool sizes in response to future climate change.",Net root growth and nutrient acquisition in response to predicted climate change in two contrasting heathland species,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1307162,"Many current watershed modeling efforts now incorporate surface water and groundwater for managing water resources since the exchanges between groundwater and surface water need a special focus considering the changing climate. The influence of groundwater dynamics on water and energy balance components is investigated in the Snake River Basin (SRB) by coupling the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and MODFLOW models (VIC-MF) for the period of 1986 through 2042. A 4.4% increase in base flows and a 10.3% decrease in peak flows are estimated by VIC-MF compared to the VIC model in SRB. The VIC-MF model shows significant improvement in the streamflow simulation (Nash-Suteliffe efficiency [NSE] of 0.84) at King Hill, where the VIC model could not capture the effect of spring discharge in the streamflow simulation (NSE of -0.30); however, the streamflow estimates show an overall decreasing trend. Two climate scenarios representing median and high radiative-forcings such as representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 show an average increase in the water table elevations between 2.1 and 2.6 m (6.9 and 8.5 feet) through the year 2042. The spatial patterns of these exchanges show a higher groundwater elevation of 15 m (50 feet) in the downstream area and a lower elevation of up to 3 m (10 feet) in the upstream area. Broadly, this study supports results of previous work demonstrating that integrated assessment of groundwater-surface water enables stakeholders to balance pumping, recharge and base flow needs and to manage the watersheds that are subjected to human pressures more sustainably.",Coupled Surface and Groundwater Hydrological Modeling in a Changing Climate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1430924,"Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) threaten the health of humans, livestock, and wildlife. West Nile virus (WNV), the world's most widespread arbovirus, invaded the United States in 1999 and rapidly spread across the county. Although the ecology of vectors and hosts are key determinants of WNV prevalence across landscapes, the factors shaping local vector and host populations remain unclear. Here, we used spatially-explicit models to evaluate how three land-use types (orchards, vegetable/forage crops, natural) and two climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) influence the prevalence of WNV infections and vector/host distributions at landscape and local spatial scales. Across landscapes, we show that orchard habitats were associated with greater prevalence of WNV infections in reservoirs (birds) and incidental hosts (horses), while increased precipitation was associated with fewer infections. At local scales, orchard habitats increased the prevalence of WNV infections in vectors (mosquitoes) and the abundance of mosquitoes and two key reservoir species, the American robin and the house sparrow. Thus, orchard habitats benefitted WNV vectors and reservoir hosts locally, creating focal points for the transmission of WNV at landscape scales in the presence of suitable climatic conditions.",West Nile Virus Prevalence across Landscapes Is Mediated by Local Effects of Agriculture on Vector and Host Communities,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+794716,"Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.",Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+159170,"Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more heavy rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated the effects of these climatic conditions on aboveground net primary production (ANPP) by combining a greenness index from satellite measurements and climatic records during 2000-2009 from 11 long-term experimental sites in multiple biomes and climates. Results showed that extreme precipitation patterns decreased the sensitivity of ANPP to total annual precipitation (P-T) at the regional and decadal scales, leading to decreased rain use efficiency (RUE; by 20% on average) across biomes. Relative decreases in ANPP were greatest for arid grassland (16%) and Mediterranean forest (20%) and less for mesic grassland and temperate forest (3%). The cooccurrence of heavy rainfall events and longer dry intervals caused greater water stress conditions that resulted in reduced vegetation production. A new generalized model was developed using a function of both P-T and an index of precipitation extremes and improved predictions of the sensitivity of ANPP to changes in precipitation patterns. Our results suggest that extreme precipitation patterns have substantially negative effects on vegetation production across biomes and are as important as P-T. With predictions of more extreme weather events, forecasts of ecosystem production should consider these nonlinear responses to altered extreme precipitation patterns associated with climate change. Citation: Zhang, Y., et al. (2013), Extreme precipitation patterns and reductions of terrestrial ecosystem production across biomes, J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., 118, 148-157, doi:10.1029/2012JG002136.",Extreme precipitation patterns and reductions of terrestrial ecosystem production across biomes,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+713882,"Coral bleaching spread across the southern Great Barrier Reef in January 2006, after sea temperatures reached climatological summer maxima 2 months before normal. Current satellite-derived warning systems were unable to detect severe bleaching conditions in the region because of their use of a constant thermal threshold (summer maximum monthly mean) and low spatial resolution (50 km). Here it is shown that such problems can be ameliorated if the thermal threshold is adjusted for seasonal variation and a 4-km spatial resolution is used. We develop a seasonally and spatially improved thermal threshold for coral bleaching on the basis of a weekly climatology of sea surface temperatures extending from austral spring to late summer, and apply the method to two case-study sites. At both sites, and in particular at the nearshore site that was undetected by the 50-km satellite product, the seasonally adjusted thermal threshold produced a greatly improved consistency between accumulated heating and bleaching severity. The application of thermal stress algorithms that reflect the long-term mean pattern in seasonal variation allows coral bleaching to be forecast with higher precision.",Improved predictions of coral bleaching using seasonal baselines and higher spatial resolution,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3299750,"Alkalinity and groundwater CO2 have increased linearly from 1991-2017 at the Konza Prairie Biological Station (KPBS), a tallgrass prairie research site in northeastern Kansas. The projected increase in groundwater alkalinity (as HCO3-) and CO2 based on an earlier trend was confirmed in 2016, with predictions nearly equal to recent values (e.g., 408 ppm vs 410 ppm as HCO3-, respectively). Both the water balance and groundwater CO2 trends within the study watershed could be impacted by long-term changes in land use and climate: 1) encroachment of woody vegetation (1983-2012) as a result of the 4-year fire return interval, 2) reintroduction of bison (phased in, 1994-2006), 3) increases in air temperature, and 4) changes in precipitation patterns. If only linear processes are driving the observed water chemistry changes, then the linear increase in air temperature (1983-2017) that stimulates soil respiration may be the most likely factor enhancing groundwater HCO3- and CO2, as air temperature has risen similar to 1 to 1.4 degrees C over 34 years. If groundwater chemistry is driven by more threshold behaviour, woody encroachment, which was linear but in three distinct phases, may drive groundwater chemistry. The similar to 2 to 3% decrease in the discontinuous delta C-13 data in the groundwater-dominated stream suggests enhanced inputs of microbially-respired labile carbon, CO2 sourced from C3 (woody vegetation), or a combination of the two.",Increasing groundwater CO2 in a mid-continent tallgrass prairie: Controlling factors,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+424342,"Satellite data reveal a 20% decline in sea ice extent in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas in the two decades following 1973. This change is negatively correlated with surface air temperatures on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula, which have increased similar to 0.5 degrees C decade(-1) since the mid-1940s. The recession was strongest during summer, when monthly average minima in 1991-92 removed much of the incipient multiyear ice over the continental shelf. This would have lowered the regional-mean ice thickness, impacting snow ice formation, brine production, and vertical heat flux. The northern ice edge contracted by similar to 1 degrees of latitude in all seasons from 1973-79 to 1987-93, returning toward mean conditions in 1993-95. The decline included multiyear cycles of several years in length, superimposed on high interannual variability. A review of atmospheric forcing shows winds consistent with mean and extreme ice extents, and suggests links to larger-scale circulation changes in the South Pacific. Historical ocean measurements are sparse in this sector, but mixed-layer depths and upper pycnoclines beneath the sea ice resemble those in the Weddell Sea. Weaker surface currents or changes in the upwelling of Circumpolar Deep water on the continental shelf could have contributed to the anomaly persistence.",Climate variability in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+572618,"Climatic variability and forest disturbance are commonly recognized as two major drivers influencing streamflow change in large-scale forested watersheds. The greatest challenge in evaluating quantitative hydrological effects of forest disturbance is the removal of climatic effect on hydrology. In this paper, a method was designed to quantify respective contributions of large-scale forest disturbance and climatic variability on streamflow using the Willow River watershed (2860 km(2)) located in the central part of British Columbia, Canada. Long-term (>50 years) data on hydrology, climate, and timber harvesting history represented by equivalent clear-cutting area (ECA) were available to discern climatic and forestry influences on streamflow by three steps. First, effective precipitation, an integrated climatic index, was generated by subtracting evapotranspiration from precipitation. Second, modified double mass curves were developed by plotting accumulated annual streamflow against annual effective precipitation, which presented a much clearer picture of the cumulative effects of forest disturbance on streamflow following removal of climatic influence. The average annual streamflow changes that were attributed to forest disturbances and climatic variability were then estimated to be +58.7 and -72.4 mm, respectively. The positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) values in streamflow change indicated opposite change directions, which suggest an offsetting effect between forest disturbance and climatic variability in the study watershed. Finally, a multivariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was generated to establish quantitative relationships between accumulated annual streamflow deviation attributed to forest disturbances and annual ECA. The model was then used to project streamflow change under various timber harvesting scenarios. The methodology can be effectively applied to any large-scale single watershed where long-term data (>50 years) are available.",Quantifying streamflow change caused by forest disturbance at a large spatial scale: A single watershed study,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3968473,"Recently, seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) and their advances have gained increasing attention in agricultural communities, specifically because of their potential to improve climate risk management by increasing preparedness and thus enhance agricultural and economic outcomes. Seasonal predictions of crop diseases and insect pests that provide timely and accurate forecasts are especially valuable not only to farmers and extension workers (i.e., to inform their crop management decisions) but also to governments (i.e., to increase national-level disaster preparedness). In this study, we used a case study in Bicol, Philippines, to introduce an array of implementation strategies to facilitate the use of SCFs in the agricultural sector. To demonstrate the full potential of SCFs in the Bicol region, we developed and applied seasonal disease predictions for rice, with sequential activities that included a baseline study on disease epidemics in the target area, the examination of available SCFs, the development of a decision support system for seasonal disease predictions, and an evaluation of this system using SCF hindcasts. Finally, we disseminated the resulting seasonal disease predictions in the target area using an agro-met bulletin. The present study demonstrated a successful example of a developmental framework for the application of SCFs to agricultural decision-making with the support of relevant SCF-linked agricultural models. These implementation strategies, in combination with the lessons learned, can help guide prospective efforts of establishing similar climate services that utilize SCFs in developing countries to improve the outcomes and thus lead to enhanced and sustainable food security. © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2019.",Use of seasonal climate forecasts in agricultural decision-making for crop disease management,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+212631,"Within the changing fire regimes of Portugal, the relative importance of humans and climatic variability for regional fire statistics remains poorly understood. This work investigates the statistical relationship between temporal dynamics of fire events in Portugal and a set of socioeconomic, landscape, and climatic variables for the time periods of 1980-1990, 1991-2000, and extreme fires years. For 10 of 15 districts, it was possible to observe moderate shifts in the significance of fire drivers for the first two decadal periods. For others, pronounced changes of the significance of fire drivers were found across time. Results point toward a dynamic (perhaps highly non-linear) behavior of socioeconomic and landscape fire drivers, especially during the occurrence of extreme fire years of 2003 and 2005. At country level, population density alone explained 42% of the inter-annual and inter-district deviance in number of fires. At the same temporal and spatial scale, the explanatory power of temperature anomalies proved to explain 43% of area burnt. We highlight the necessity of including a broad set of socioeconomic and landscape fire drivers in order to account for potential significance shifts. In addition, although climate does trigger broad favorable fire conditions across Portugal mainland, socioeconomic and landscape factors proved to determine much of the complex fire patterns at a subnational scale.","Sensitivity of Portuguese forest fires to climatic, human, and landscape variables: subnational differences between fire drivers in extreme fire years and decadal averages",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+97097,"This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities. Background: In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These are just some of the climate impacts that are driving concerns about weather-related injury, the spread of disease, mental health issues, infrastructure damage, and food and water security. Local leaders are challenged to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to address climate impacts and related health effects. Implementation process: The tribal health system is combining local observations, traditional knowledge, and western science to perform community-specific climate change health impact assessments. Local leaders are applying this information to develop adaptation responses. Objective: The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium will describe relationships between climate impacts and health effects and provide examples of community-scaled adaptation actions currently being applied in Northwest Alaska. Findings: Climate change is increasing vulnerability to injury, disease, mental stress, food insecurity, and water insecurity. Northwest communities are applying adaptation approaches that are both specific and appropriate. Conclusion: The health impact assessment process is effective in raising awareness, encouraging discussion, engaging partners, and implementing adaptation planning. With community-specific information, local leaders are applying health protective adaptation measures.",Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+639720,"The expansion of shrubs into tundra areas is a key terrestrial change underway in the Arctic in response to elevated temperatures during the twentieth century. Repeat photography permits a glimpse into greening satellite pixels, and it shows that, since 1950, some shrub patches have increased rapidly (hereafter expanding), while others have increased little or not at all (hereafter stable). We characterized and compared adjacent expanding and stable shrub patches across Arctic Alaska by sampling a wide range of physical and chemical soil and vegetation properties, including shrub growth rings. Expanding patches of Alnus viridis ssp. fruticosa (Siberian alder) contained shrub stems with thicker growth rings than in stable patches. Alder growth in expanding patches also showed strong correlation with spring and summer warming, whereas alder growth in stable patches showed little correlation with temperature. Expanding patches had different vegetation composition, deeper thaw depth, higher mean annual ground temperature, higher mean growing season temperature, lower soil moisture, less carbon in mineral soil, and lower C:N values in soils and shrub leaves. Expanding patches-higher resource environments-were associated with floodplains, stream corridors, and outcrops. Stable patches-lower resource environments-were associated with poorly drained tussock tundra. Collectively, we interpret these differences as implying that preexisting soil conditions predispose parts of the landscape to a rapid response to climate change, and we therefore expect shrub expansion to continue penetrating the landscape via dendritic floodplains, streams, and scattered rock outcrops.",Landscape Heterogeneity of Shrub Expansion in Arctic Alaska,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+761190,"Vulnerability to and perceptions of climate change may be significantly affected by gender. However, in China, gender is rarely addressed in climate adaption or resource management strategies. This paper demonstrates the relevance of gender in responses to climate change in the mountainous province of Yunnan in southwest China. Based on surveys undertaken during a record-breaking drought, the paper explores how women and men in a village in Baoshan Prefecture differ in their perceptions of and responses to drought, and how the changing roles of women and men in the home and the community are influencing water management at the village level. Our results show that despite the increasingly active role of women in managing water during the drought, they are excluded from community-level decision-making about water. The paper argues that given the importance of gender differences in perceptions of and responses to drought, the lack of a gender perspective in Chinese policy may undermine efforts to support local resource management and climate adaptation.","Gendered Responses to Drought in Yunnan Province, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+116901,"Increasing crop productivity while simultaneously reducing the environmental footprint of crop production is considered a major challenge for the coming decades. Even short episodes of heat stress can reduce crop yield considerably causing low resource use efficiency. Studies on the impact of heat stress on crop yields over larger regions generally rely on temperatures measured by standard weather stations at 2 m height. Canopy temperatures measured in this study in field plots of rye were up to 7 degrees C higher than air temperature measured at typical weather station height with the differences in temperatures controlled by soil moisture contents. Relationships between heat stress and grain number derived from controlled environment studies were only confirmed under field conditions when canopy temperature was used to calculate stress thermal time. By using hourly mean temperatures measured by 78 weather stations located across Germany for the period 1994-2009 it is estimated, that mean yield declines in wheat due to heat stress during flowering were 0.7% when temperatures are measured at 2 m height, but yield declines increase to 22% for temperatures measured at the ground. These results suggest that canopy temperature should be simulated or estimated to reduce uncertainty in assessing heat stress impacts on crop yield.",Impact of heat stress on crop yield-on the importance of considering canopy temperature,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+201300,"Changes in the amount and timing of the discharge of major Eurasian Arctic rivers have been well documented, but whether or not these changes can be attributed to climatic factors or to the construction of manmade reservoirs remains unclear. Here we endeavor to identify the key processes (snow cover and air temperature) that have regulated seasonal streamflow fluctuations in the Eurasian Arctic over the last half-century (1958-1999) and to understand the regional coherence of timing trends, using a set of Eurasian Arctic rivers selected specifically because they are free of known effects of dams. We find a shift toward earlier onset of spring runoff as measured by a modest change in the spring pulse onset (26 of 45 stations) and a strong change in the centroid of timing (39 of 45 stations). Winter streamflows increased over the period of record in most rivers, suggesting that trends observed by others in larger regulated Eurasian Arctic rivers may not be entirely attributable to reservoir construction. Upward trends in air temperature appeared to have had the largest impact on spring and summer flows for tributaries in the coldest of the major Eurasian Arctic river basins (e. g., the Lena). While the overall duration of snow cover has not significantly changed across the Eurasian Arctic, snow cover disappearance has trended earlier in the year and appears to be related to the increased May and snowmelt season fractional flows.",Change in spring snowmelt timing in Eurasian Arctic rivers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+96594,"Global climate change will affect the abundance, distribution, and life history timing of many exploited marine populations, but specific changes are difficult to predict. Management systems in which harvest strategies and tactics are flexible in responding to unpredictable biological changes are more likely to succeed in maintaining productive populations. We explore the adaptability of fisheries management systems in relation to oceanic warming rates by asking how two important management characteristics vary with temperature changes for > 500 stocks. (1) Harvest control rules, a framework for altering fishing pressure in response to changes in the abundance of targeted species (primarily due to fishing), may provide the capacity for harvest policies to change in response to climate-driven abundance declines also. (2) Seasonal openings with flexible dates that involve in-season monitoring may allow managers to better respond to possible changes in the timing of life-history periods like spawning to prevent fishing seasons falling out of sync with species' phenology. Harvest control rules were widely used across industrialized fisheries including in regions that experienced relatively high oceanic warming rates, but after controlling for regional factors we found no association between ocean warming and the use of harvest control rules. Flexible-date seasonal openings were rare compared to fixed-date seasonal openings, but tended to occur in areas with the greatest warming rates while fisheries without seasonal closures tended to occur in areas with the least observed temperature changes. We found no consistent evidence of recent ocean warming effects on the current biomass or exploitation rates relative to management targets of 241 assessed marine populations. Together, these results suggest that the oceanic areas expected to have the greatest climate impacts on populations do at least tend to contain fisheries that demonstrate the potential for adaptability to unpredictable climate impacts.",The adaptive capacity of fishery management systems for confronting climate change impacts on marine populations,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+109303,"Increased attention directed at the permafrost region has been prompted by resource development and climate change. This review surveys advances in permafrost hydrology since 2000. Data shortage and data quality remain serious concerns. Yet, there has been much progress in understanding fundamental hydrologic processes operating in a wide range of environments, from steep mountainous catchments, to the Precambrian Shield with moderate relief, to the low-gradient terrain of plains, plateaus and wetlands. Much of the recent research has focused on surface water, although springs and groundwater contribution to streamflow have also been studied. A compendium of water-balance research from 39 high-latitude catchments reveals the strengths and limitations of the available results, most of which are restricted to only a few years of study at the small watershed scale. The response of streamflow to climate receives continued if not increasing attention, from the occurrence of extreme hydrologic events to the changing regimes of river flow at a regional scale. The effect of climate change and the role of permafrost on the changing discharge of large boreal rivers are major topics for further investigation. Extended field and modelling research on physical processes will improve knowledge of permafrost hydrology and enhance its relevance to societal needs. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Progress in permafrost hydrology in the new millennium,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1400655,"Controlled environment studies show alpha-tocopherol (alpha T) in soybean seeds increases several fold as a result of warmer temperature or drought during seed maturation, but total tocopherols (T-tot) stay approximately constant. To determine if natural variation in weather or climate affect T under field conditions, we analyzed soybean seeds grown at several locations in Maryland between 1999 and 2002. Weather was relatively normal during 1999-2001, whereas warmer temperatures and extreme drought were characteristic of 2002. Comparing 18 lines, there were small but significant differences in T-tot as well as 2- to 3-fold differences in alpha T during 1999-2001. Seeds from locations on the Eastern Shore of Maryland (full season crops) had higher absolute and relative levels of alpha T compared to seeds from a (cooler) central Maryland location or seeds from a later planting (double crop) on the Eastern Shore. Effects of location or planting date were small compared to that of genetic line when considering the normal years 1999-2001. In 2002, however, several fold increases in alpha T/T-tot were observed in Maturity Group III and IV seeds, especially from full season crops grown at two locations on the Eastern Shore of Maryland. We conclude weather and climate are significant factors affecting soybean seed T content.",Tocopherols in soybean seeds: Genetic variation and environmental effects in field-grown crops,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1411424,"[1] We examine the spatiotemporal variability of the upper ocean sea ice system of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean subpolar seas (Weddell gyre) and the nature of its covariability with extrapolar climate. To systematically evaluate the sporadic and sparse distribution of subpolar data, we employed an optimal analysis involving empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). The EOFs reveal that the pattern of spatial covariability of Weddell gyre characteristics is dominated by high interannual variability near the northern (circumpolar) rim of the gyre and lesser variability (10-20% of the variance) in the gyre's central core region. We find considerable, statistically significant teleconnections between subpolar and extrapolar climate. The dominant link is with El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Our analysis of the gyre characteristics suggest that during El Nino, the Atlantic subpolar ( Weddell) gyre spins up while the eastern Pacific subpolar gyre spins down; the opposite occurs for La Nina. This regional subpolar response is consistent with recent GCM modeling analyses. These show that equatorial warm anomalies drive changes in the meridional and zonal atmospheric circulation cells. This results in opposite shifts of the subpolar jets in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans that lead to a change in the interaction ( especially in cyclones) between the subtropical and polar front jets in those basins, and ultimately in the cyclonic forcing of the subpolar gyres. We also find that the Weddell gyre interior upper ocean characteristics covary positively with sea ice extent in the Atlantic region and negatively with the sea ice extent in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen regions, reflecting a strong Antarctic dipole.",Spatial/temporal patterns in Weddell gyre characteristics and their relationship to global climate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+558883,"In the present scenario of continuously rising world population and climate change, a major thrust in the field of plant biology is to strive for sustainable agriculture. This necessitates a complete understanding of the mechanism underlying plant tolerance against a multitude of stress factors which limit crop productivity. Among other regulators, redox-state homeostasis has recently emerged as the central or core regulator behind stress-induced signaling. At any given point, redox state is defined as the integrated ratio of reduced and oxidized forms of all the redox couples present inside the cell and is governed by the level of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and activities of ROS-producing and ROS-scavenging enzymes. The redox-state homeostasis is a highly dynamic and variable component and is strictly dependent upon the developmental stage as well as the external environment. Considering the significance of redox state in regulating multiple plant processes, a large number of redox-associated genes/transcription factors are currently being characterized using functional genomics-based approach. The present chapter deals with the basic aspect of generating redox signal and then describes selected mechanisms, which are responsible for the viewpoint of plant tolerance and crop yield. The future research directions are also discussed so as to ensure the use of these genetic components in crop improvement program. © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015.",Redox-regulated mechanisms: Implications for enhancing plant stress tolerance and crop yield,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1415024,"The summer conventional meteorological data in Beijing over past 10 years are analyzed. The results reveal that the impact of urbanization on the urban climate has become more and, more apparent. (1) Over the past 10 years, the relative humidity decreases year by year and the average value in the urban area is smaller than that in the rural area. (2) The summer precipitation in Beijing decreases gradually in the past 10 years, especially after 1998. (3) The average daily evaporation and the sunshine duration in the urban area are more than those in the rural area. (4) The visibility in the urban area is smaller than that in the rural area, but they all have been becoming more and more better after 1999. (5) The soil temperature also has the characteristics of Urban Heat Island WHO. (6) The number of days with the air temperature higher than 35 degrees C increases year by year. (7) Combined with the observational data from the 325m high tower in IAP, the results also show that the inversion in the urban boundary layer is very favorable to the formation of the strong summer UHI.",Summer urban climate trends and environmental effect in the Beijing area,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3308696,"Groundwater plays a critical supporting role in agricultural production in the California Central Valley (CV). Recent prolonged droughts (notably 2007-2009 and 2012-2016) caused dramatic depletion of groundwater, indicating the susceptibility of the CV's water supply to climate change. To assess the impact of climate change on groundwater storage in the CV, we combined integrated surface water and groundwater models with climate projections from 20 global climate models and thereby explore the vulnerability of CV groundwater under two climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We found that groundwater has been declining over the past decades (3 km(3)/year on average during 19502009). In the absence of future mitigating measures, this decline will continue, but at a higher rate due to climate change (31% and 39% increase in loss rate under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The greatest loss (more than 80% of the total) will occur in the semi-arid southern Tulare region. We performed computational experiments to quantify the relative contribution of future crop water use and headwater inflows to total groundwater storage change. Our results show that, without management changes, continuing declines in future groundwater storage will mainly be attributable to ongoing overuse of groundwater. However, future changes in the seasonality of streamflow into the CV, (small) changes in annual inflows, and increased crop water use in a warmer climate will lead to 40-70% more annual groundwater losses than the current annual average, up to approximately 5 km(3)/year.","Climate change impacts on groundwater storage in the Central Valley, California",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+169286,"Winter rainfall over southwest Western Australia (SWWA) has decreased by 20% since the late 1960s. Why has the reduction occurred in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter months but not in summer? To what extent is this reduction attributable to anthropogenic forcing and congruent with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM)? Using reanalysis data and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) 20th century model experiments, we show that a SAM-SWWA relationship exists in winter and not in other seasons. An ensemble result from 71 experiments reveals that anthropogenic forcing contributes to about 50% of the observed rainfall decline. Approximately 70% of the observed trend is congruent with the SAM trend, whereas for the models it is 46%. Our result suggests that other forcing factors must be invoked to fully account for the observed rainfall reduction.",SAM and regional rainfall in IPCC AR4 models: Can anthropogenic forcing account for southwest Western Australian winter rainfall reduction?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+540038,"Cold related mortality among people aged over 50 in England and Wales has decreased at a rate of 85 deaths per million population per year over the period 1976-2005. This trend is two orders of magnitude higher than the increase in heat-related mortality observed after 1976. Long term changes in temperature-related mortality may be linked to human activity, natural climatic forcings, or to adaptation of the population to a wider range of temperatures. Here we employ optimal detection, a formal statistical methodology, to carry out an end to end attribution analysis. We find that adaptation is a major influence on changing mortality rates. We also find that adaptation has prevented a significant increase in heat-related mortality and considerably enhanced a significant decrease in cold-related mortality. Our analysis suggests that in the absence of adaptation, the human influence on climate would have been the main contributor to increases in heat-related mortality and decreases in cold-related mortality.",Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1559179,"The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOS) was launched in November 2009 and started delivering data in January 2010. The commissioning phase ended in May 2010. Subsequently, the satellite has been in operation for over six years while the retrieval algorithms from Level 1 (L1) to Level 2 (L2) underwent significant evolutions as knowledge improved. Moreover, other approaches for retrieval at L2 over land were investigated while Level 3 (L3) and Level 4 (L4) were initiated. In this paper, these improvements were assessed by inter comparisons of the current L2 (V620) against the previous version (V551) and new products (using neural networks referred to as SMOS-NN) and 1.3 (referred to as SMOS-L3). In addition, a global evaluation of different SMOS soil moisture (SM) products (SMOS-L2, SMOS-L3, and SMOS-NN) was performed comparing products with those of model simulations and other satellites. Finally, all products were evaluated against in situ measurements of soil moisture (SM). To achieve such a goal a set of metrics to evaluate different satellite products are suggested. The study demonstrated that the V620 shows a significant improvement (including those at L1 improving L2) with respect to the earlier version V551. Results also show that neural network based approaches can often yield excellent results over areas where other products are poor. Finally, global compa'rison indicates that SMOS behaves very well when compared to other sensors/approaches and gives consistent results over all surfaces from very dry (African Sahel, Arizona), to wet (tropical rain forests). RFI (Radio Frequency Interference) is still an issue even though detection has been greatly improved through the significant reduction of RFI sources in several areas of the world. When compared to other satellite products, the analysis shows that SMOS achieves its expected goals and is globally consistent over different eco climate regions from low to high latitudes and throughout the seasons. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved.",Overview of SMOS performance in terms of global soil moisture monitoring after six years in operation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2314069,"Organic-mineral soil particles are formed and altered as a result of pedogenic processes and anthropogenic impacts on soils. They can be isolated from bulk soil samples by physical disaggregation followed by particle size and/or density fractionation. This review summarizes methodological advances and the characteristic features of the chemical composition of organic matter in these different fractions. It is demonstrated how soil texture and soil genesis determine the contents of organic C (C-org) in size-separates and their distribution in typical profiles of four important major soil groups. Data from numerous field studies were compiled to show that the proportions of C(or)g bound in clay fractions increased under soil uses which reduce the soil organic matter (SOM) content. Coarser and lighter particles are relatively enriched in native or manured soils. Contents of humic substances, lignin oxidation products, carbohydrates, lipids, and forms of organic N determined by wet-chemical methods indicate that the chemical composition results from specific functions of the organic-mineral particles in the turnover of SOM. This is also reflected by C-13-nuclear magnetic resonance and analytical pyrolysis, the applications of which to the study of organic-mineral particles are summarized and compared for the first time. The summarized chemical characteristics of organic-mineral particles have direct effects on other properties such as soil aggregation and the resulting physical behaviour of soil. Moreover, the adsorption and distribution of plant nutrients, as well as the binding capacity for a wide range of pollutants, clearly show that the organic matter is a key factor for the physicochemical reactions at organic-mineral surfaces. Along with evidence for the different mineralizability of C-org and organic N, and enzymatic properties, the accumulated knowledge of their composition, structure and properties provides a basis from which to develop molecular models of organic-mineral particles. Molecular modelling and visualization of humic colloids, SOM and its complexes (organic-mineral particles) with biological substances, metals and xenobiotics are discussed. These model complexes offer a basis for the conceptual development of SOM macromolecules, mineral soil particles and the computer-assisted design of organic-mineral particles. Molecular-mechanics calculations and geometrical optimization are employed to obtain energy minimized, stable conformations which allow the determination of atomic distances, bonds, angles, torsions, stretches, etc., at nanochemical level. As a result, exact descriptions of three-dimensional structures can be proposed. The total (potential) energy of the organic matter complexes and macromolecules can be determined simultaneously, and energy derivatives for bond-, angle-, dihedral-, van der Waals', stretch-bend, and electrostatic energies calculated. Moreover, quantitative structure-activity relationship software is employed to calculate relevant molecular properties such as surface, volume, atomic charges, polarizability, refractivity, etc. It is this combination of atomic/molecular structural data and energy derivatives that opens up new insights into binding sites and transport forms between biological and/or xenobiotic substances and SOM. The resulting potential, and limits, for modelling of organic (humic) macromolecules, organic-mineral particles and mineral surfaces are delineated.","New insights into organic-mineral particles: composition, properties and models of molecular structure",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1757704,"As one of the main manifestations of global change, climate warming effect on global terrestrial carbon cycles, this effect has important guiding significance for the development of accurate understanding of the carbon cycle process and related policies, through a lot of research work, this paper based on the fuzzy evaluation method to illustrate the ecological impact of climate warming on land, in the next few years or even decades, the synergistic effect of other manifestations of climate warming and global change will be the next focus of the study, climate change and terrestrial ecosystem between the two-way feedback mechanism is the theoretical basis for more accurate study, the structure and function of ecosystem climate change is the premise to accurately understand and predict future climate scenarios. As one of the main manifestations of global change, climate warming has become an indisputable fact. It is current global average temperature is higher than the average temperature over the past few thousand years. At present, there is strong evidence that human activities lead to the continuous accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, so that the gradual rise in global temperatures. According to the forecast, the CO2 effect of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will cause the global average temperature to rise 0.2 degrees C every 10 years. According to the prediction, the global temperature will be a huge change hitherto unknown in the past 10000 years, resulting in the potential impact on the global environment such as climate warming, it can cause a series of environmental problems, such as flat and rising, precipitation distribution pattern change, and the direct and indirect impact on terrestrial ecosystems. The carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystem is the research focus of global change, which is closely related to global climate change. Climate warming will lead to changes in the global carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems, the original carbon balance has been destroyed, and causes a series of environmental problems, such as rising sea level, precipitation pattern changes, etc.. It should be said that the impact of climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is the core issue in the study of global change. Climate warming has an impact on vegetation carbon pool and soil carbon pool by affecting NPP, it can change the yield and decomposition rate of litter.",Study on Effect of Climate Warming to Carbon Cycle of Terrestrial Ecosystem Based on Fuzzy Evaluation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1410861,"Adverse health effects of particulate matter < 10 mu m in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and high temperatures are well known, but the extent of their interaction on mortality is less clear. This paper describes effect modification of temperature in the PM10-mortality association and tests the hypothesis that higher PM10 effects in summer are due to enhanced exposure to particles. All deaths of residents of nine Italian cities between 1997 and 2004 were selected. The case-crossover approach was adopted to estimate the effect of PM10 on mortality by season and temperature level. Three strata of temperature corresponding to low, medium, and high ""ventilation"" were identified, and the interaction between PM10 and temperature within each stratum was examined. Season and temperature levels strongly modified the PM10-mortality association: for a 10-mu g/m(3) variation in PM10, a 2.54% increase in risk of death in summer (95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.78) compared with 0.20% (95% confidence interval: -0.08, 0.49) in winter. Analysis of the interaction between PM10 and temperature within temperature strata resulted in positive but, in most cases, nonstatistically significant coefficients. The authors found much higher PM10 effects on mortality during warmer days. The hypothesis that such an effect is attributable to enhanced exposure to particles in summer could not be rejected.",Does temperature modify the association between air pollution and mortality? A multicity case-crossover analysis in Italy,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+722656,"In this paper, the trends of the annual streamflow and precipitation and cross correlations between them were analyzed in nine large river basins of China during 1956-2005. The results indicate that: (1) the annual mean streamflow decreases in arid and semi-arid regions of north China; however, increasing trends occur in south and Southwest China; (2) the annual streamflow and precipitation exhibit reasonable correlation in nine large river basins except those located in inland areas. The annual streamflow over most areas of China is fed by precipitation; however, the decline in streamflow is faster than the decreases of precipitation since 1970s in the arid and semi-arid regions of north China. The relationship between the annual precipitation and streamflow presents a non-stationary state in north China. This non-stationary relationship is strongly influenced by both human activities and precipitation changes; (3) a significant increase of water use might be the major factor responsible for the steeper decline in streamflow than in precipitation in Haihe River, Yellow River and Songliao River basins in north China. In inland river areas, increase of water use and actual evapotranspiration might result in decline in streamflow although precipitation has an increase tendency. This paper sheds light on the non-stationary relationship between annual precipitation and streamflow and possible underlying causes, which will be helpful for a better understanding of the changes of precipitation and streamflow in China at large scale and in other regions of the world. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Evaluating the non-stationary relationship between precipitation and streamflow in nine major basins of China during the past 50 years,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1820836,"Numerous investigations on Urban Heat Island (UHI) show that land cover change is the main factor of increasing Land Surface Temperature (LST) in urban areas, especially conversion of vegetation and bare soil to concrete, asphalt and other man-made structures. On the other hand, other human activities like those which cause to burning fossil fuels, that increase the amount of carbon dioxide, may raise temperature in global scale in comparison with small scales (urban areas). In this study, multiple satellite images with different spatial and temporal resolutions have been used to determine Land Surface Temperature (LST) variability in Tehran metropolitan area. High temporal resolution of AVHRR images have been used as the main data source when investigating temperature variability in the urban area. The analysis shows that UHI appears more significant at afternoon and night hours. But the urban class temperature is almost equal to its surrounding vegetation and bare soil classes at around noon. It also reveals that there is no specific difference in UHI intense during the days throughout the year. However, it can be concluded that in the process of city expansion in years, UHI has been grown both spatially and in magnitude. In order to locate land-cover types and relate them to LST, Thematic Mapper (TM) images have been exploited. The influence of elevation on the LST has also been studied, using digital elevation model derived from SRTM database.",Trend assessment of spatio-temporal change of Tehran Heat Island using satellite images,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+223212,"Based on runoff, air temperature, and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, the effects of climate change on water resources in the arid region of the northwestern China were investigated. The long-term trends of hydroclimatic variables were studied by using both Mann-Kendall test and distributed-free cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart test. Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1960 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang in the study period. Step changes occur in 1988 in the mean annual air temperature time series and in 1991 in the precipitation time series. The runoff in different basins shows different trends, i.e., significantly increasing in the Kaidu River, the Aksu River and the Shule River, and decreasing in the Shiyang River. Correlation analysis reveals that the runoff in the North Xinjiang (i.e., the Weigan River, the Heihe River, and the Shiyang River) has a strong positive relationship with rainfall, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature. The trends of runoff have strong negative correlations with glacier coverage and the proportion of glacier water in runoff. From the late 1980s, the climate has become warm and wet in the arid region of the northwestern China. The change in runoff is interacted with air temperature, precipitation and glacier coverage. The results show that streamflow in the arid region of the northwestern China is sensitive to climate change, which can be used as a reference for regional water resource assessment and management.",Runoff responses to climate change in arid region of northwestern China during 1960-2010,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+652827,"Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi-arid settings. Here, we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi-arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi-arid forests, where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming-induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi-arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree-ring widths. These ring-width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi-arid sites than at semi-humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007-2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests.",Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi-arid forests of Inner Asia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+899880,"A new fire policy reinforcing aggressive fire suppression was established in Mediterranean France in response to the devastating wildfires of the 1990s, but to what extent this has changed fire activity yet remains poorly understood. For this purpose, we compared the number and location of ignitions and of burned areas between two 20-year periods (1975-1994 vs. 1995-2014), in parallel to the changes in fuel covering, human activity promoting ignitions, and fire weather. The number of fires decreased almost continuously since 1975, but sharply after 1994, suggesting an effect of better fire prevention due to the new policy. But the major change in fire activity is a considerable reduction in fire size and burned areas after 1994, especially during summer and in the most fire-prone places, in response to massive efforts put into fire suppression. These reductions have occurred while the covering by fuel biomass, the human pressure on ignition, and the fire weather index increased, thus making the study area more hazardous. Our results suggest that a strategy of aggressive fire suppression has great potential for counterbalancing the effects of climate changes and human activities and for controlling fire activity in the short term. However, we discuss whether such a suppression-oriented approach is sustainable in the context of global changes, which cast new fire challenges as demonstrated by the devastative fires of 2003 and 2016. We advocate for a more comprehensive fire policy to come.",Wildfire Policy in Mediterranean France: How Far is it Efficient and Sustainable?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1451113,"Numerous studies characterizing the potential effects of atrazine on algal assemblages have been conducted using micro- or mesocosms; however, few evaluations focused on in situ lotic algal communities, potentially confounding risk assessment conclusions. This exploratory study, conducted at several sites in the midwestem United States where atrazine is commonly used, presents in situ observations of native algal communities relative to atrazine exposure and other parameters. Planktonic and periphytic algae from three streams in three Midwestern states, having historically differing atrazine levels, were sampled over a 16-week period in 2011 encompassing atrazine applications and the summer algal growth period at each site. Changes in abundance, diversity, and composition of algal communities were placed in the context of hydrological, climatic, and water quality parameters (including components sometimes present in agricultural runoff) also collected during the study. Diatoms dominated communities at each of the three sites and periphyton was much more abundant than phytoplankton. As expected, significant variations in algal community and environmental parameters were observed between sites. However, correspondence analysis plots revealed that patterns of temporal variation in algal communities at each site and in periphyton or phytoplankton were dominated by seasonal environmental gradients. Significant concordance in these seasonal patterns was detected among sites and between phytoplankton and periphyton communities (via procrustes Protest analysis), suggesting synchronicity of algal communities across a regional scale. While atrazine concentrations generally exhibited seasonal trends at the study watersheds; no effects on algal abundance, diversity or assemblage structure were observed as a result of atrazine pulses. This lack of response may be due to exposure events of insufficient concentration or duration (consistent with previously reported results) or the composition of the algal assemblages present. This was in contrast to the effects of elevated flow events, which were associated with significant changes in periphyton abundance, diversity and assemblage. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Seasonal synchronicity of algal assemblages in three Midwestern agricultural streams having varying concentrations of atrazine, nutrients, and sediment",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+147184,"Evidence is increasing that climate change and variability may influence human migration patterns. However, there is less agreement regarding the type of migration streams most strongly impacted. This study tests whether climate change more strongly impacted international compared to domestic migration from rural Mexico during 1986-99. We employ eight temperature and precipitation-based climate change indices linked to detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project. Results from multilevel discrete-time event-history models challenge the assumption that climate-related migration will be predominantly short distance and domestic, but instead show that climate change more strongly impacted international moves from rural Mexico. The stronger climate impact on international migration may be explained by the self-insurance function of international migration, the presence of strong migrant networks, and climate-related changes in wage difference. While a warming in temperature increased international outmigration, higher levels of precipitation declined the odds of an international move.",Domestic and International Climate Migration from Rural Mexico,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2359849,"Climate resilience varies significantly based on gender and on location in different physical and social spaces. A qualitative study exploring conditions of the urban poor in Khulna, Bangladesh demonstrates how the appropriation of private, parochial and public spaces by residents of informal settlements influences their capacity to cope with climate risks. Because of the spatial implications of the predominant patriarchal system, women remain vulnerable in private spaces. The parochial spaces they use for productive work also leave them exposed and sensitive to climate hazards. On the other hand, men, who make greater use of public spaces, still have negligible capacity to take any anticipatory and reactive actions in response to risks there. This paper, which provides a comparison to earlier research in Dhaka, argues that gendered constraints in both inhabiting and shaping spaces is an underlying cause of differential climate resilience; alternatively, planning climate-resilient spaces can be seen as a fundamental change contributing to transformative adaptation.","Gendered space and climate resilience in informal settlements in Khulna City, Bangladesh",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+223463,"Climate change is already being experienced in the Arctic with implications for ecosystems and the communities that depend on them. This paper argues that an assessment of community Vulnerability to climate change requires knowledge of past experience with climate conditions, responses to climatic variations, future climate change projections, and non-climate factors that influence people's Susceptibility and adaptive capacity. The paper documents and describes exposure sensitivities to climate change experienced in the community of Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories and the adaptive strategies employed. It is based on collaborative research involving semi-structured interviews, secondary Sources of information, and participant observations. In the context of subsistence hunting, changes in temperature, seasonal patterns (for example timing and nature of the spring melt), sea ice and wind dynamics, and weather variability have affected the health and availability of some species of wildlife important for subsistence and have exacerbated risks associated with hunting and travel. Inuit in Ulukhaktok are coping with these changes by taking extra precautions when travelling, shifting modes of transportation, travel routes and hunting areas to deal with changing trail conditions, switching species harvested, and supplementing their diet with store bought foods. Limited access to capital resources, changing levels of traditional knowledge and land skills, and Substance abuse were identified as key constraints to adaptation. The research demonstrates the need to consider the perspectives and experiences of local people for climate change research to have practical relevance to Arctic communities such as for the development and promotion of adaptive strategies.","Inuit vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change in Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, Canada",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+526533,"Borehole temperature-depth profiles contain a record of surface ground temperature (SGT) changes with time and complement surface air temperature (SAT) analysis to infer climate change over multiple centuries. Ground temperatures are generally warmer than air temperatures due to solar radiation effects in the summer and the insulating effect of snow cover during the winter. The low thermal diffusivity of snow damps surface temperature variations; snow effectively acts as an insulator of the ground during the coldest part of the year. A numerical model of snow-ground thermal interactions is developed to investigate the effect of seasonal snow cover on annual ground temperatures. The model is parameterized in terms of three snow event parameters: onset time of the annual snow event, duration of the event, and depth of snow during the event. These parameters are commonly available from meteorological and remotely sensed data making the model broadly applicable. The model is validated using SAT, subsurface temperature from a depth of 10 cm, and snow depth data from the 6 years of observations at Emigrant Pass climate observatory in northwestern Utah and 217 station years of National Weather Service data from sites across North America. Measured subsurface temperature-time series are compared to changes predicted by the model. The model consistently predicts ground temperature changes that compare well with those observed. Sensitivity analysis of the model leads to a nonlinear relationship between the three snow event parameters (onset, duration, and depth of the annual snow event) and the influence snow has on mean annual SGT.",Snow and the ground temperature record of climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1584523,"In fish conservation, it is important to simulate fish habitat suitability and determine the potential impact on habitat quality and species behavior. This study analyzed the impact of several hydraulic projects on fish habitat quality and spawning time by numerical modeling. The case study involved the only Chinese sturgeon spawning site in the Yangtze River, China. Four habitat assessment indexes reflected both habitat quality and spatial characteristics, including fragmentation and connectivity. Previous studies did not simulate the water temperature impact on the fish habitat; spawning time delay was attributed to water temperature increases and discharge decreases. The results of the present study showed that the water temperature increase from the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) impoundment primarily caused the habitat degradation and spawning time delay. The effect of the water temperature increase on the degradation of average habitat suitability was eight times that of a decrease in discharge. A 25-day delay in the water temperature trend line was significantly correlated with a 26-day delay in the first spawning date. A decrease in discharge after TGR impoundment did not cause the spawning date delay. The Dike Project mainly impacted spawning site connectivity. Controlling the water temperature of the released water discharge is the most important means of conserving the wild Chinese sturgeon. This research can benefit other regions considering hydraulic projects by identifying potential factors impacting fish habitat quality and overall ecosystem health.",Potential causes of habitat degradation and spawning time delay of the Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1497914,"Niche conservatism at distinct levels of biological hierarchy is still a highly debated topic in ecology. The general evaluation of niche shifts is mainly addressed to species level, with few explorations at lower or higher hierarchical levels. The freshwater turtle Trachemys dorbigni (Black-Bellied Slider) has recently been divided into two subspecies that occur in very different climatic conditions and is also considered to be an invasive species in parts of eastern and southeastern regions in Brazil. Here, we aimed to explore the effects of evaluating climatic niche conservatism at subspecific levels during the invasive process of T. dorbigni. We evaluated niche conservatism based on similarity (whether niches are more similar than expected by chance) and also measured expansion, stability, and unfilling in the invaded niche. We found that the climatic niches of the T. dorbigni recognized subspecies are very different, but when they are merged, the environmental condition created is more similar to the invasive niche of the subspecies T. dorbigni dorbigni. We also found consistent evidence of niche conservatism in invaded areas, which enables the effective use of ecological niche models to forecast T. dorbigni dorbigni invasion in other geographic regions.","Exploring intraspecific climatic niche conservatism to better understand species invasion: the case of Trachemys dorbigni (Testudines, Emydidae)",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1622783,"Disturbance and deforestation have profound ecological and socioeconomic effects on tropical forests, but their diffuse patterns are difficult to detect and quantify at regional scales. We expanded the Carnegie forest damage detection system to show that, between 1999 and 2005, disturbance and deforestation rates throughout the Peruvian Amazon averaged 632 square kilometers per year and 645 square kilometers per year, respectively. However, only 1 to 2% occurred within natural protected areas, indigenous territories contained only 11% of the forest disturbances and 9% of the deforestation, and recent forest concessions effectively protected against clear-cutting. Although the region shows recent increases in disturbance and deforestation rates and leakage into forests surrounding concession areas, land-use policy and remoteness are serving to protect the Peruvian Amazon.",Land-use allocation protects the Peruvian Amazon,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+230902,"Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) have spawning grounds in waters stretching from south of Okinawa to east of Taiwan. This species is typical of fishes that spawn seasonally in small, limited areas. Any marked change in the marine environment of the spawning grounds is likely to have a direct impact on larval survival and growth. We conducted rearing experiments on larvae to investigate these impacts and found that a reduction in temperature resulted in poor growth during the juvenile stage, even if larval survival rates did not change. In the wild, this reduced growth rate is likely to reduce survival rates because smaller juveniles have poorer swimming ability and their ability to avoid predators is also reduced. This is especially important since the Kuroshio current, which connects the spawning grounds to the nursery grounds, transports larvae rapidly because of its faster surface current (the western boundary current), thus larvae arriving too quickly in coastal waters can be exposed to very cold temperatures. An ocean model (MIROC) simulation under a climate warming scenario (IPCC, 2007) predicted that the temperature in the spawning ground would be 3 degrees C higher in 2100 than in present time, while the transport to nursery grounds would also be faster. In this case, the combination of several mechanisms would control the recruitment of juvenile bluefin. On the spawning grounds, high temperatures exceeding the optimal range would increase larvae mortality and any surviving larvae would reach the nursery grounds more quickly, but warmer coastal waters would have less negative impact on their growth. We forced a model of larval drift with MIROC output fields to study the complex response of bluefin tuna recruitment. As a result, the predicted survival rates of larvae arriving in Japanese coastal waters in 2100 would decline to 36% of present recruitment levels. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Impacts of environmental variability and global warming scenario on Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) spawning grounds and recruitment habitat,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1811805,"This paper summarizes the hazards of high temperature extremes in the built environment and considers the challenges of managing risk with uncertainty of prediction of the magnitude and frequency of events. The application of extreme value statistics on a typical time series of temperature data has provided some insight into the observed and predicted variability. Using a long temperature time series as an example it is shown that return periods and the increased risk associated with climate change can be interpolated from the analysis. Considering the chaotic nature of cities, their rapid growth and a warming climate, it is suggested that cities could be made more resilient to heat waves if governments were be better able to appropriately allocate resources to manage the hazard. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B. V.",Assessing the potential impact of heat waves in cities: implications for hazard preparation and planning,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1545437,"Background: It is well documented that suboptimal ambient temperature is associated with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. However, no study has examined the relation between temperature and dog bites. Objectives: To study the association between ambient temperature and daily hospital emergency department visits due to dog bites (EDVDBs) in Beijing, China; and to explore whether the temperature-EDVDB association varies by sex and age. Methods: Daily EDVDBs were collected from a hospital appointed for dog bites in Beijing during 2012-2014. A quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was employed to estimate the impact of temperature on daily EDVDBs. Stratified analysis was performed to examine the temperature-EDVDB association by sex and age-groups. Sensitivity analysis was performed to check the robustness of the results by adjusting other meteorological variables and air pollutants. Results: A total of 42,481 EDVDBs were collected, with daily cases ranged from 15 to 71. The association between temperature and EDVDBs was U-shaped, with extreme cold temperature showing a weaker, delayed and shorter effect on the risk of dog bites while the effect of extreme hot temperature being stronger, more immediate and lasting longer. Cold temperature had a greater impact on female whereas male was more sensitive to hot temperature. The temperature-EDVDB association was unapparent in the 15-21 years group. The cold effect was only significant in the 0-14 years group whereas all age-groups suffered from the similar heat effect except those aged 22-45 years. Adjusting other meteorological variables and air pollutants did not change the results. Conclusions: The impact of temperature on EDVDBs is U-shaped in Beijing, China which varies by sex and age. The temperature effect is independent from other meteorological variables and air pollutants. (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V.","Are hospital emergency department visits due to dog bites associated with ambient temperature? A time-series study in Beijing, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+614541,"Deciduous shrub growth has increased across the Arctic simultaneously with recent climate warming trends. The reduction in albedo associated with shrub-induced 'greening' of the tundra is predicted to cause significant positive feedbacks to regional warming. Enhanced soil fertility arising from climate change is expected to be the primary mechanism driving shrub responses, yet our overall understanding of the relative importance of soil nitrogen ( N) and phosphorus ( P) availability and the significance of other ecological drivers is constrained by experiments with varying treatments, sites, and durations. We investigated dwarf birch apical stem growth responses to a wide range of ecological factors ( enhanced summer temperatures, deepened snow, caribou exclusion, factorial high level nitrogen and phosphorus additions, and low level nitrogen additions) after six years of experimental manipulations in birch hummock tundra. As expected, birch apical stem growth was more strongly enhanced by the substantial increases in nutrient supply than by our changes in any of the other ecological factors. The factorial additions revealed that P availability was at least as important as that of N, and our low N additions demonstrated that growth was unresponsive to moderate increases in soil nitrogen alone. Experimental warming increased apical stem growth 2.5-fold-considerably more than in past studies-probably due to the relatively strong effect of our greenhouses on soil temperature. Together, these results have important implications for our understanding of the biogeochemical functioning of mesic tundra ecosystems as well as predicting their vegetation responses to climate change.","Birch shrub growth in the low Arctic: the relative importance of experimental warming, enhanced nutrient availability, snow depth and caribou exclusion",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+225035,"Evidence from floodplain cores collected from three sites in the middle reaches of the Tweed basin in Scotland is used to reconstruct changes in sediment sources and overbank floodplain deposition rates over the last c. 100 years. Core chronologies and sedimentation rates are established using Cs-137 and unsupported Pb-210 measurements. The average sedimentation rates since 1963 range from 1.9 +/- 0.2 to 2.2 +/- 0.2 kg m(-2) a(-1) and are lower than the average rates for the period 1894/95 to 1963, which range from 2.7 +/- 0.6 to 5.9 +/- 0.9 kg m(-2) a(-1). There is also evidence of significant downcore variations in sediment source, defined in terms of both type (i.e. topsoil or channel bank/subsoil material) and spatial location (i.e. main geological/topographic zones). There is no clear link between the changes in overbank sedimentation rates and sediment sources and the trends shown by precipitation, weather pattern and river flow records over the past 100 years, suggesting that changes in climate alone cannot explain the downcore trends. Instead, the temporal changes in overbank sedimentation rates and sediment source appear to be linked more closely to changes in land use and land management over the past 100 years and, more particularly, the introduction of land drainage at the end of the 19th century, the rapid increase in afforestation since the 1940s and the post-war conversion of grassland to arable land. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.","Changes in sediment sources and floodplain deposition rates in the catchment of the River Tweed, Scotland, over the last 100 years: The impact of climate and land use change",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+5623,"The Late Cenozoic development of the River Tana in Kenya has been reconstructed for its central reach near its confluence with the River Mutonga, which drains the Mount Kenya region. Age control for this system has been provided by K-Ar and Ar-Ar dating. Between 3.21 and 2.65 Ma a major updoming occurred, in relation to the formation of the Kenyan rift valley. The tilting related to this doming has been reconstructed from lava flows that preserve former river gradients. Linear projection of these trends to the current rift valley rim suggests a net updoming of the eastern Gregory Rift valley by at least similar to 1 km during 3.21-2.65 Ma. In contrast, since 2.65 Ma the Tana system has been mainly subject to relatively minor epeirogenic uplift. Changing climatic conditions combined with continuing uplift yielded a typical staircase of strath terraces with at least 10 distinct levels. A more detailed reconstruction of the incision rates since 215 ka has been made, by correlating mineralogically fingerprinted volcaniclastic Tana deposits with dated tephras in a lake record. These volcaniclastic sediments were deposited during glacial periods, contemporaneous with lahars. The reconstructed incision rates for the three youngest terraces are similar to 0.1-0.2 mm a(-1), thus considerably faster than the overall average rate of valley incision since the Mid-Pliocene, of 0.06 mm a(-1). A plausible uplift history has been reconstructed using the estimated ages of the Tana terraces and marine terraces on the Indian Ocean coastline. The result suggests an increase in the rate of incision by the River Tana at similar to 0.9 Ma, an observation typical in most European river terrace staircases. The reconstructed Late Quaternary development of Tana valley indicates that a similar Quaternary uplift mechanism has operated in both Europe and East Kenya, suggesting a globally applicable process. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Late Cenozoic fluvial dynamics of the River Tana, Kenya, an uplift dominated record",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+466601,"The decline of Arctic sea ice is one of the most visible signs of climate change over the past several decades. Arctic sea ice area shows large interannual variability due to the numerous factors, but on longer time scales the total sea ice area is approximately linearly related to Arctic surface air temperature in models and observations. Overall, models however strongly underestimate the recent sea ice decline. Here we show that this can be explained with two interlinked biases. Most climate models simulate a smaller sea ice area reduction per degree local surface warming. Arctic polar amplification, the ratio between Arctic and global temperature, is also underestimated but a number of models are within the uncertainty estimated from natural variability. A recalibration of an ensemble of global climate models using observations over 28 years provides a scenario independent relationship and yields about 2 degrees C change in annual mean global surface temperature above present as the most likely global temperature threshold for September sea ice to disappear, but with substantial associated uncertainty. Natural variability in the Arctic is large and needs to be considered both for such recalibrations as well as for model evaluation, in particular when observed trends are relatively short.",September Arctic sea ice predicted to disappear near 2 degrees C global warming above present,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1464308,"Exploring the relationship between hydrological and meteorological droughts under influence of large reservoirs is crucial for early warning of hydrological drought. This study took Jinjiang River basin in the southeast coastal region of China as an example, where the Shilong hydrometric station is influenced by a large reservoir (Shanmei), and the Anxi hydrological station is not. Based on monthly data of stream flow with precipitation and historical drought records from 1960 to 2010, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) series (representing meteorological drought and hydrological drought, respectively) were each calculated with a 3-month timescale. Run theory was then used to identify the characteristics of meteorological and hydrological drought, including duration and magnitude. The relationship with which hydrological drought responds to meteorological drought was established by a non-linear function model at the Anxi station and Shilong station which reflected the periods of natural condition without reservoir and reservoir-influence condition, respectively. The results indicate that (1) there was a clear non-linear relationship of hydrological drought and meteorological drought, and the threshold within which hydrological drought started to respond to meteorological drought was obtained according to the non-linear function model; (2) the operational activities of the Shanmei reservoir during 1983-2010 have significantly reduced the duration and magnitude of hydrological drought at the Shilong station compared to the natural-influence period of 1960-1982, which, in turn, altered the relationship between the hydrological drought and meteorological drought. The propagation process from meteorological to hydrological droughts was shortened because of the changed relationship. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Non-linear relationship of hydrological drought responding to meteorological drought and impact of a large reservoir,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+161947,"Maincrop potato yields in Scotland have increased by 3035 similar to t similar to ha-1 since 1960 as a result of many changes, but has changing climate contributed anything to this? The purpose of this work was to answer this question. Daily weather data for the period 19602006 were analysed for five locations covering the zones of potato growing on the east coast of Scotland (between 55.213 and 57.646 similar to N) to determine trends in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. A physiologically based potato yield model was validated using data obtained from a long-term field trial in eastern Scotland and then employed to simulate crop development and potential yield at each of the five sites. Over the 47 similar to years, there were significant increases in annual air and 30 similar to cm soil temperatures (0.27 and 0.30 similar to K similar to decade-1, respectively), but no significant changes in annual precipitation or in the timing of the last frost in spring and the first frost of autumn. There was no evidence of any north to south gradient of warming. Simulated emergence and canopy closure became earlier at all five sites over the period with the advance being greater in the north (3.7 and 3.6 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively) than the south (0.5 and 0.8 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively). Potential yield increased with time, generally reflecting the increased duration of the green canopy, at average rates of 2.8 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for chitted seed (sprouted prior to planting) and 2.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for unchitted seed. The measured warming could contribute potential yield increases of up to 13.2 similar to t similar to ha-1 for chitted potato (range 7.119.3 similar to t similar to ha-1) and 11.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 for unchitted potato (range 7.115.5 similar to t similar to ha-1) equivalent to 3439% of the increased potential yield over the period or 2326% of the increase in actual measured yields.",Attribution of climate change: a methodology to estimate the potential contribution to increases in potato yield in Scotland since 1960,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1689102,"The transition to a low carbon economy provides potential opportunities for Indigenous communities living in remote areas of Australia. Recent studies and trial projects indicate a range of potential benefits from carbon management programs such as early season fire management, bio-sequestration, bio-energy production, and energy monitoring services. Remote Indigenous communities in Australia typically have few employment opportunities, and the health and socio-economic statistics of residents indicate several disadvantages compared to the average non-Indigenous Australian. Despite this many communities maintain a strong culture and a wealth of traditional knowledge, particularly in relation to natural resource management. These carbon management programs offer potential employment and business development prospects that utilise Indigenous knowledge and are in keeping with their caring for country preferences. There is little published information on the carbon profiles of these communities but they are expected to be highly carbon intensive due to their frequent reliance on diesel-powered electricity generators, fossil-fuelled vehicles that need to travel vast distances and housing that often requires energy-intensive thermal conditioning. Hence, efforts are also required to help reduce carbon emissions and associated costs, particularly rising electricity and fuel prices from direct use or those embedded in goods and services. To ascertain whether implementation of proposed carbon management programs can be combined to mitigate carbon emissions a method for estimating and comparing emission abatement across a range of scenarios is required. A carbon accounting model that quantifies the estimated carbon that can be mitigated from sources and sequestered in sinks for a given community has been developed. The model combines two methods of measurement: life cycle analysis and land use modelling techniques. LCA is an assessment of impacts throughout a product's life, or ""cradle to grave"", including raw material acquisition, through production, use and disposal. The AS/NZS ISO standard 14040:1998 Environmental Management-Life cycle assessment - principles and framework outlines the requirements and process for undertaking a life cycle impact assessment. The life cycle analysis is applied in the model to estimate key emission sources for greenhouse gases broadly categorised as follows: materials used for construction and maintenance, construction processes including transport, operating energy supply and demand, transport during the occupancy phase, water systems, and solid waste. Because a full life cycle analysis can be a time and data intensive undertaking only significant items in the community are included and some emissions related to transport and waste are based on annual inventory methods only. Embedded within the life cycle analysis is the model to estimate carbon sinks. The carbon sinks are modelled using a method in accordance with IPCC guidelines for land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). This takes into account conversions for a variety of land use categories and, where significant, sub-categories of biomass, dead organic matter and soil. This allows sinks to be estimated within defined limits of uncertainty and a total sequestration quantity to be approximated. The combination of the two measurement methods provides an overall carbon cycle for a community and an estimate of the potential to provide climate change mitigation capacity including a quantitative basis for further economic analysis.",Developing a model of carbon sources and sinks for Indigenous communities in Australia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1530126,"We assessed the effects of apparent temperature (AT) on mortality and the effect modifications attributable to individual characteristics in Hong Kong with subtropical climate conditions. Two datasets are used for analyses: one from mortality data of the general elderly population in 1998-2009; the other from an elderly cohort with 66,820 subjects recruited in 1998-2001 with mortality outcomes followed up until 2009. We found that AT below 20.8 degrees C was associated with an increase in mortality risk of 1.99% (95% confidence interval: 0.64%, 2.64%) for all causes, 2.48% (0.57%, 436%) for cardiovascular disease, and 3.19% (0.59%, 5.73%) for respiratory disease for every 1 degrees C decrease in AT over the following 3 days. The associations were modified by sex and body mass index, in particular stronger associations were observed for females and for obese subjects. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Thermal stress associated mortality risk and effect modification by sex and obesity in an elderly cohort of Chinese in Hong Kong,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2332681,"Snow plays an important role in the Arctic climate system, modulating heat transfer in terrestrial and marine environments and controlling feedbacks. Changes in snow depth over Arctic sea ice, particularly in spring, have a strong impact on the surface energy budget, influencing ocean heat loss, ice growth and surface ponding. Snow conditions are sensitive to the phase (solid or liquid) of deposited precipitation. However, variability and potential trends of rain-on-snow events over Arctic sea ice and their role in sea-ice losses are poorly understood. Time series of surface observations at Utqiagvik, Alaska, reveal rapid reduction in snow depth linked to late-spring rain-on-snow events. Liquid precipitation is key in preconditioning and triggering snow ablation through reduction in surface albedo as well as latent heat release determined by rainfall amount, supported by field observations beginning in 2000 and model results Rainfall was found to accelerate warming and ripening of the snowpack, with even small amounts (such as 0.3 mm recorded on 24 May 2017) triggering the transition from the warming phase into the ripening phase. Subsequently, direct heat input drives snowmelt, with water content of the snow-pack increasing until meltwater output occurs, with an associated rapid decrease in snow depth. Rainfall during the ripening phase can further raise water content in the snow layer, prompting onset of the meltwater output phase in the snowpack. First spring rainfall in Utqiagvik has been observed to shift to earlier dates since the 1970s, in particular after the mid-1990s. Early melt season rainfall and its fraction of total annual precipitation also exhibit an increasing trend. These changes of precipitation over sea ice may have profound impacts on ice melt through feedbacks involving earlier onset of surface melt.",A key factor initiating surface ablation of Arctic sea ice: earlier and increasing liquid precipitation,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+775922,"Irrigated agriculture in the North Fork of the Red River watershed in Western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle depends on groundwater upstream of Lake Altus-Lugert and surface water from the lake, but like much of the world, the region is prone to Water scarcity. During a severe drought from 2010 to 2015, streamflow into the lake reached record lows, and the lake was depleted until no water remained for the surface water irrigation district. Area residents were left wondering whether drought or human factors were primarily responsible for the reduced streamflow and the four years of crop failures that resulted. We aimed to clarify climate and human influences on streamflow in the North Fork of the Red River watershed by (1) quantifying changes in annual streamflow, climate, groundwater Use, and land use upstream from Lake Altus-Lugert from 1970 to 2014, (2) determining the relative contributions of climate and human factors to changes in streamflow, and (3) developing statistical models describing the relationships of climate and human variables with streamflow. We found a counteracting increase (around 1986) and decrease (around 2001) in streamflow, with human factors being responsible for slightly more than half (51-56%) of each change. There were no long-term trends in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ET0), but low streamflow from 2002 to 2014 coincided with a period of low precipitation, high ET0, and a 75% increase in groundwater withdrawal for irrigation in the Oklahoma portion of the watershed. A multiple regression model containing only precipitation and groundwater withdrawal for irrigation explained 81% of annual streamflow variability. These statistical relationships suggest that upstream groundwater use was an important driver of streamflow changes. Our results indicate that sustained agricultural productivity near Lake Altus-Lugert may require the adoption of conjunctive water management strategies, and our methods offer a framework for similar assessments in other water -scarce regions.(C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Human factors were dominant drivers of record low streamflow to a surface water irrigation district in the US southern Great Plains,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+492783,"Land use change and climate change are two major global modifications of our environment and are predicted to continue in the future. To assess how climate change affects land use and regional development in the Poyang Lake district in China, we use agent-based modeling and simulate the physical and socio-economic drivers within two interactive sub-models for urban expansion and rural development. The modeling outputs from 1985 to 2005 show good agreement with the observed land use change. Possible land use changes and regional development paths until 2035 are examined for three SRES scenarios including A1B (rapid growth), A2 (regional-diversified growth) and B1 (growth with clean technologies). The results show that climate change induced impacts on land use change and regional development are highly relevant and may even amplify the complex interactions. In particular, cropland, forest, water area, urban, and grassland are more sensitive to these changes than unused land. The more environmental friendly B1 scenario results in less concerning land use changes. (c) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Interactions between land use change, regional development, and climate change in the Poyang Lake district from 1985 to 2035",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+597095,"According to the meteorological observation data of 72 stations from 1960 to 2010 in the Huanghe (Yellow) River Watershed, China, the long-term variations of potential evapotranspiration, calculated in the modified Penman-Monteith model of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, were presented, as well as the meteorological causes for the decrease of potential evapotranspiration were discussed. Since 1960, temperature has risen significantly and potential evapotranspiration a decreasing trend, which indicated the existence of ""Evaporation paradox"" in the Huanghe River Watershed. This phenomenon was not consistent spatially or temporally with the increase of temperature, potential evapotranspiration decreased in spring, summer and winter, mainly over most parts of Shanxi and Henan, and some parts of Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi. During the recent half century, the trends of temperature and potential evapotranspiration were negatively correlated at most of the stations, while precipitation and potential evapotranspiration exhibited a contrary trend. Calculated in multiple regressions, the contribution to potential evapotranspiration change of related meteorological factors was discussed, including mean pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity and average wind speed. The decrease of wind speed in the Huanghe River Watershed may be the dominating factor causing potential evapotranspiration decreasing.",Decreasing potential evapotranspiration in the Huanghe River Watershed in climate warming during 1960-2010,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+9661,"In this study, an analysis of long-term rainfall data reveals that the rapid urban expansion in Beijing since 1981 is statistically correlated to summer rainfall reduction in the northeast areas of Beijing from 1981 to 2005. This coincides with the period in which the shortage of water in the Beijing area has become a serious factor for sustainable economic development. Meanwhile, an analysis of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer spanning the years from 1980 to 2001 shows that there is no clear secular trend in summer AOD in Beijing. With the particular purpose of further understanding the effects of urban expansion on summer rainfall and the potential measures to mitigate such effects, a mesoscale weather/land-surface/urban coupled model along with different urban land-use change scenarios are used to conduct numerical simulations for two selected heavy summer rainfall events with different, but representative, summer weather patterns in Beijing. Results show that urban expansion can produce less evaporation, higher surface temperatures, larger sensible heat fluxes, and a deeper boundary layer. This leads to less water vapor, more mixing of water vapor in the boundary layer, and hence less (more) convective available potential energy (convective inhibition energy). The combination of these factors induced by expanding urban surfaces is helpful in reducing precipitation for the Beijing area in general and, in particular, for the Miyun reservoir area (the major source for the local water supply). Increasing green vegetation coverage in the Beijing area would produce more rainfall, and model results show that planting grass seems more effective than planting trees. For the same vegetation, the rainfall difference from simulations using two green-planting layouts (annular and cuneiform) is small.",Impacts of urban expansion and future green planting on summer precipitation in the Beijing metropolitan area,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+632053,"The continuous increase in the emission of greenhouse gases has resulted in global warming, and substantial changes in the global climate are expected by the end of the current century. The reductions in mass, volume, area and length of glaciers on the global scale are considered as clear signals of a warmer climate. The increased rate of melting under a warmer climate has resulted in the retreating of glaciers. On the long-term scale, greater melting of glaciers during the coming years could lead to the depletion of available water resources and influence water flows in rivers. It is also very likely that such changes have occurred in Himalayan glaciers, but might have gone unnoticed or not studied in detail. The water resources of the Himalayan region may also be highly vulnerable to such climate changes, because more than 50% of the water resources of India are located in the various tributaries of the Ganges, Indus and the Brahmaputra river system, which are highly dependent on snow and glacier runoff. In the present study, the snowmelt model SNOWMOD has been used to simulate the melt runoff from a highly glacierized small basin for the summer season. The model simulated the distribution and volume of runoff with reasonably good accuracy. Based on a 2-year simulation, it is found that, on average, the contributions of glacier melt and rainfall in the total runoff are 87% and 13% respectively. The impact of climate change on the monthly distribution of runoff and total summer runoff has been studied with respect to plausible scenarios of temperature and rainfall, both individually and in combined scenarios. The analysis included six temperature scenarios ranging between 0.5 and 3 degrees C, and four rainfall scenarios (-10%, -5%, 5%, 10%). The combined scenarios were generated using temperature and rainfall scenarios. The combined scenarios represented a combination of warmer and drier and a combination of warmer and wetter conditions in the study area. The results indicate that, for the study basin, runoff increased linearly with increase in temperature and rainfall. For a temperature rise of 2 degrees C, the increase in summer streamflow is computed to be about 28%. Changes in rainfall by +/- 10% resulted in corresponding changes in streamflow by +/- 3.5%. For the range of climatic scenarios considered, the changes in runoff are more sensitive to changes in temperature, compared with rainfall, which is likely due to the major contribution of melt water in runoff. Such studies are needed for proper assessment of available water resources under a changing climate in the Himalayan region. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Effiect of climate change on runoff of a glacierized Himalayan basin,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+393812,"Background: Both outdoor air pollution and extreme temperature have been associated with daily mortality; however, the effect of their interaction is not known. Methods: This time-series analysis examined the effect of the interaction between outdoor air pollutants and extreme temperature on daily mortality in Shanghai, China. A generalized additive model (GAM) with penalized splines was used to analyze mortality, air pollution, temperature, and covariate data. The effects of air pollutants were stratified by temperature stratum to examine the interaction effect of air pollutants and extreme temperature. Results: We found a statistically significant interaction between PM10/O-3 and extreme low temperatures for both total nonaccidental and cause-specific mortality. On days with ""normal"" temperatures (15th-85th percentile), a 10-mu g/m(3) increment in PM10 corresponded to a 0.17% (95% CI: 0.03%, 0.32%) increase in total mortality, a 0.23% (0.02%, 0.44%) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and a 0.26% (-0.07%, 0.60%) increase in respiratory mortality. On low-temperature days (< 15th percentile), the estimates changed to 0.40% (0.21%, 0.58%) for total mortality, 0.49% (0.13%, 0.86%) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.24% (-0.33%, 0.82%) for respiratory mortality. The interaction pattern of O-3 with lower temperature was similar. The interaction between PM10/O-3 and lower temperature remained robust when alternative cut-points were used for temperature strata. Conclusions: The acute health effects of air pollution might vary by temperature level.","Effect of the Interaction Between Outdoor Air Pollution and Extreme Temperature on Daily Mortality in Shanghai, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+198072,"Maintaining living ex situ collections is one of the key conservation methods in botanic gardens worldwide. Despite of the existence of many other conservation approaches used nowadays, it offers for many endangered plants an important insurance policy for the future, especially for rare and threatened relict trees. The aim of this research was to investigate the global extent of living ex situ collections, to assess and discuss their viability and inform the development of conservation approaches that respond to latest global conservation challenges. We used as a model taxon the tree genus Zelkova (Ulmaceae). The genus includes six prominent Tertiary relict trees which survived the last glaciation in disjunct and isolated refugial regions. Our comprehensive worldwide survey shows that the majority of botanic institutions with Zelkova collections are in countries with a strong horticultural tradition and not in locations of their origin. More importantly, the acutely threatened Zelkova species are not the most represented in collections, and thus safeguarded through ex situ conservation. Less than 20% of the ex situ collections surveyed contain plant material of known wild provenance while the majority (90%) of collections are generally very small (1-10 trees). Botanic gardens and arboreta particularly in regions where iconic relict trees naturally occur should play a vital role in the conservation of these species. The coordination of conservation efforts between gardens has to be enhanced to prioritise action for the most threatened relict trees. Large scale genetic studies should be undertaken, ideally at genus level, in order to verify or clarify the provenance of ex situ collections of relict trees in cultivation. For the most threatened relict tree genera, well-coordinated specialist groups should be created.",Conservation of threatened relict trees through living ex situ collections: lessons from the global survey of the genus Zelkova (Ulmaceae),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+265906,"Climate variability is well known to affect the marine survival of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in Oregon and Washington. Marine factors have been used to explain up to 83% of the variability in Oregon coastal natural coho salmon recruitment, yet about half the variability in coho salmon recruitment comes from the freshwater life phase of the life cycle. This seeming paradox could be resolved if freshwater variability were linked to climate and climate factors influencing marine survival were correlated with those affecting freshwater survival. Effects of climate on broad-scale fluctuations in freshwater survival or production are not well known. We examined the influence of seasonal stream flows and air temperature on freshwater survival and production of two stock units: Oregon coastal natural coho salmon and Queets River coho salmon from the Washington Coast. Annual air temperatures and second winter flows correlated strongly with smolt production from both stock units. Additional correlates for the Oregon Coast stocks were the date of first fall freshets and flow during smolt outmigration. Air temperature is correlated with sea surface temperature and timing of the spring transition so that good freshwater conditions are typically associated with good marine conditions.",Environmental factors influencing freshwater survival and smolt production in Pacific Northwest coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1945505,"Tree growth in the tropics is strongly influenced by climate. However, reported tree growth responses to climate are largely inconsistent, varying with geographic location, forest type, and tree species. It is thus important to study the growth responses of tropical trees in sites and species that are under-represented so far. Bangladesh, a country influenced by the Asian monsoon climate, is understudied in terms of tree growth response to climate. In the present study, we developed a 121-year-long regional ring-width index chronology of Chukrasia tabularis A. Juss. sampled in two moist forest sites in Bangladesh to investigate tree growth responses to climate in monsoon South Asia. Standard dendrochronological methods were used to produce the ring-width chronologies. The climate sensitivity of C. tabularis was assessed through bootstrap correlation analysis and the stationarity and consistency of climate-growth relationships was evaluated using moving correlation functions and comparing the regression slopes of two sub-periods (1950-1985 and 1986-2015). Tree growth was negatively correlated with the mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures, particularly during the early growing season (March). Likewise, precipitation negatively influenced tree growth in the later growing season (October). Besides, radial growth of Chukrasia sharply ceased in years following strong and moderate El Nino events. In parallel with a significant positive trend in local temperatures, tree growth sensitivity to early growing season (March-April) mean temperatures and July minimum temperatures increased in recent decades. Tree growth sensitivity to October precipitation and April vapor pressure deficit also increased. Overall, climate-growth relationships were stronger during the period 1986-2015 than during 1950-1985. Changes in climate sensitivity might be linked to a warming trend that induced an increase in the dry season length during recent decades. With a further predicted temperature increase at our study sites, our results suggest that radial growth of C. tabularis will further decline in response to climate warming.",Changes in Sensitivity of Tree-Ring Widths to Climate in a Tropical Moist Forest Tree in Bangladesh,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2316985,"The ecological consequences of climate change have been recognized in numerous species, with perhaps phenology being the most well-documented change. Phenological changes may have negative consequences when organisms within different trophic levels respond to environmental changes at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches between predators and their prey. This may be especially apparent in the Arctic, which has been affected more by climate change than other regions, resulting in earlier, warmer, and longer summers. During a 7-year study near Utqiavik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we estimated phenological mismatch in relation to food availability and chick growth in a community of Arctic-breeding shorebirds experiencing advancement of environmental conditions (i.e., snowmelt). Our results indicate that Arctic-breeding shorebirds have experienced increased phenological mismatch with earlier snowmelt conditions. However, the degree of phenological mismatch was not a good predictor of food availability, as weather conditions after snowmelt made invertebrate availability highly unpredictable. As a result, the food available to shorebird chicks that were 2-10 days old was highly variable among years (ranging from 6.2 to 28.8 mg trap(-1) day(-1) among years in eight species), and was often inadequate for average growth (only 20%-54% of Dunlin and Pectoral Sandpiper broods on average had adequate food across a 4-year period). Although weather conditions vary among years, shorebirds that nested earlier in relation to snowmelt generally had more food available during brood rearing, and thus, greater chick growth rates. Despite the strong selective pressure to nest early, advancement of nesting is likely limited by the amount of plasticity in the start and progression of migration. Therefore, long-term climatic changes resulting in earlier snowmelt have the potential to greatly affect shorebird populations, especially if shorebirds are unable to advance nest initiation sufficiently to keep pace with seasonal advancement of their invertebrate prey.",Phenological mismatch in Arctic-breeding shorebirds: Impact of snowmelt and unpredictable weather conditions on food availability and chick growth,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+577121,"Over the past decade the southern catchments of the Murray Darling Basin (MDB), responsible for much of Australia's agricultural output, have experienced a severe drought (termed the ""Big Dry'') with record high temperatures and record low inflow. We find that during the Big Dry the sensitivity of soil moisture to rainfall decline is over 80% higher than during the World War II drought from 1937-1945. A relationship exists between soil moisture and temperature independent of rainfall, particularly in austral spring and summer. Annually, a rise of 1 degrees C leads to a 9% reduction in soil moisture over the southern MDB, contributing to the recent high sensitivity. Since 1950, the impact from rising temperature contributes to 45% of the total soil moisture reduction. In a warming climate, as the same process also leads to an inflow reduction, the reduced water availability can only be mitigated by increased rainfall. Other implications for future climate change are discussed. Citation: Cai, W., T. Cowan, P. Briggs, and M. Raupach (2009), Rising temperature depletes soil moisture and exacerbates severe drought conditions across southeast Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21709, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040334.",Rising temperature depletes soil moisture and exacerbates severe drought conditions across southeast Australia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+692447,"Atmospheric humidity, clouds, precipitation, and evapotranspiration are essential components of the Arctic climate system. During recent decades, specific humidity and precipitation have generally increased in the Arctic, but changes in evapotranspiration are poorly known. Trends in clouds vary depending on the region and season. Climate model experiments suggest that increases in precipitation are related to global warming. In turn, feedbacks associated with the increase in atmospheric moisture and decrease in sea ice and snow cover have contributed to the Arctic amplification of global warming. Climate models have captured the overall wetting trend but have limited success in reproducing regional details. For the rest of the 21st century, climate models project strong warming and increasing precipitation, but different models yield different results for changes in cloud cover. The model differences are largest in months of minimum sea ice cover. Evapotranspiration is projected to increase in winter but in summer to decrease over the oceans and increase over land. Increasing net precipitation increases river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Over sea ice in summer, projected increase in rain and decrease in snowfall decrease the surface albedo and, hence, further amplify snow/ice surface melt. With reducing sea ice, wind forcing on the Arctic Ocean increases with impacts on ocean currents and freshwater transport out of the Arctic. Improvements in observations, process understanding, and modeling capabilities are needed to better quantify the atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle and its changes.","The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: A review on processes, past and future changes, and their impacts",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+322003,"Climate change increases the likelihood of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and heat waves, as well as more gradual changes in temperature and precipitation. The city of Cape Town (South Africa) is at risk from projected climate-induced warming and changes in rainfall variability. This makes resource management and infrastructure planning more challenging and increases the urgency of the need to adapt city-level operations to both current climate variability and future climate change. To date, however, the main focus of adaptation planning has been at the national level, and has not adequately addressed municipal-scale adaptation. This paper presents and discusses an overarching framework that would facilitate the development of a Municipal Adaptation Plan (MAP). The example of the city of Cape Town illustrates some of the sector-level assessments and potential climate threats, as well as resource mobilization issues that need to be addressed during the development and implementation of a MAP. In conclusion, a number of barriers to developing a MAP are discussed.",Developing a Municipal Adaptation Plan (MAP) for climate change: the city of Cape Town,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+467224,"Standard research vessel surveys during the 1980s and early 1990s demonstrated that Atlantic surfclams (Spisula solidissima solidissima) were common in the southern portion of their range (37-38 degrees N) along the east coast of North America in the Delmarva region. Based on data from these surveys, the probability of capturing surfclams in shallow water (i.e. 20 m) tows of the Delmarva region was 75-85% in 1994 and 1997. In 1999 and 2002, this probability declined to 40-55%. The probability of capturing surfclams in survey tows from deeper waters (40-50 m) also declined, but this change was relatively small compared with that in shallower water. These changes were not the result of commercial clam fishing. Unusually warm water, which induces thermal stress in S. s. solidissima, was prevalent within the period from 1999 to 2002 over the Delmarva continental shelf during fall when annual bottom temperature was peaking. The combined effects of poor physiological condition and thermal stress likely resulted in mortality of Atlantic surfclams in shallow water habitats in the Delmarva region. This resulted in a shift in the bathymetric distribution of the population to deeper water. Between 1982 and 1997, most of the surfclams in the Delmarva region Occurred at depths between 25 and 35 m, whereas in 1999 and 2002, most of the Delmarva population occurred at 35-40 m. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.",Bathymetric shift in the distribution of Atlantic surfclams: response to warmer ocean temperature,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+160629,"The sensitivity of hydrology and water resources to climate variation and climate change is assessed for the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of the United States. Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation; Projections of future streamflow, groundwater, and water quality are made using models determined from these associations and are applied to 2 transient general circulation model (GCM) scenarios. Regional streamflow increases in one scenario, but decreases in the other; both scenarios result in changes in the seasonality of peak flows. Response of groundwater to climate change depends on the GCM scenario used. Canadian Climate Center (CCC) scenarios suggest recharge will occur earlier in the year, and that seasonal fluctuations in groundwater levels will be less extreme. Hadley Center scenarios suggest recharge will occur earlier in the medium term, but later in the long term, with seasonal fluctuations in general being more extreme. Both scenarios show that nutrient loads can be expected to increase in winter and spring because of the expected increase in streamflow. Projected decreases in streamflow and associated nutrient fluxes in July and August could ameliorate problems associated with estuarine stratification and eutrophication in late summer. These projections demonstrate that future hydrology and water resources will be influenced by climate change, but that uncertainty in accurately projecting that influence will continue until model scenarios improve.",Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1905563,"Understanding the potential drought impacts on agricultural production is critical for ensuring global food security. Instead of providing a deterministic estimate, this study investigates the likelihood of yield loss of wheat, maize, rice and soybeans in response to droughts of various intensities in the 10 largest producing countries. We use crop-country specific standardized precipitation index (SPI) and census yield data for 1961-2016 to build a probabilistic modeling framework for estimating yield loss risk under a moderate (-1.2 < SPI < -0.8), severe (-1.5 < SPI < -1.3). extreme (-1.9 < SPI < -1.6) and exceptional (SPI < -2.0) drought. Results show that there is >80% probability that wheat production will fall below its long-term average when experiencing an exceptional drought, especially in USA and Canada. As for maize, India shows the highest risk of yield reduction under droughts, while rice is the crop that is most vulnerable to droughts in Vietnam and Thailand. Risk of drought-driven soybean yield loss is the highest in USA, Russian and India. Yield loss risk tends to grow faster when experiencing a shift in drought severity from moderate to severe than that from extreme to the exceptional category, demonstrating the non-linear response of yield to the increase in drought severity. Sensitivity analysis shows that temperature plays an important role in determining drought impacts, through reducing or amplifying drought-driven yield loss risk. Compared to present conditions, an ensemble of 11 crop models simulated an increase in yield loss risk by 9%-12%, 5.6%-6.3%, 18.1%-19.4% and 15.1%-16.1 for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans by the end of 21st century, respectively, without considering the benefits of CO2 fertilization and adaptations. This study highlights the non-linear response of yield loss risk to the increase in drought severity. This implies that adaptations should be more targeted, considering not only the crop type and region but also the specific drought severity of interest. (C) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.",Crop yield sensitivity of global major agricultural countries to droughts and the projected changes in the future,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1463616,"We use a 0-D photochemical box model and a 3-D global chemistry-climate model, combined with observations from the NOAA Southeast Nexus (SENEX) aircraft campaign, to understand the sources and sinks of glyoxal over the Southeast United States. Box model simulations suggest a large difference in glyoxal production among three isoprene oxidation mechanisms (AM3ST, AM3B, and Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) v3.3.1). These mechanisms are then implemented into a 3-D global chemistry-climate model. Comparison with field observations shows that the average vertical profile of glyoxal is best reproduced by AM3ST with an effective reactive uptake coefficient.glyx of 2 x 10(-3) and AM3B without heterogeneous loss of glyoxal. The two mechanisms lead to 0-0.8 mu gm(-3) secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from glyoxal in the boundary layer of the Southeast U.S. in summer. We consider this to be the lower limit for the contribution of glyoxal to SOA, as other sources of glyoxal other than isoprene are not included in our model. In addition, we find that AM3B shows better agreement on both formaldehyde and the correlation between glyoxal and formaldehyde (RGF = [GLYX]/[HCHO]), resulting from the suppression of d-isoprene peroxy radicals. We also find that MCM v3.3.1 may underestimate glyoxal production from isoprene oxidation, in part due to an underestimated yield from the reaction of isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX) peroxy radicals with HO2. Our work highlights that the gas-phase production of glyoxal represents a large uncertainty in quantifying its contribution to SOA.",Observational constraints on glyoxal production from isoprene oxidation and its contribution to organic aerosol over the Southeast United States,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3885382,"The Peel-Harvey catchment-estuary system in the rapidly urbanising Peel region in southwestern Australia has experienced marked environmental, ecological and societal changes over the last century and, given current projections in population growth and climate change, is facing a suite of further challenges. Here, we outline a trajectory of change in this key socio-ecological system from the early 1800s to projected conditions and responses in 2050, with a view to exploring options to help support the key societal benefits provided by this waterway into the future. © 2019 Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved..","Peel-Harvey Estuary, Western Australia",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+562152,"This paper examines the notion that the fish stocks in Lake Kariba may now be suffering from the effects of climate change as air temperatures there have increased by about 2 °C since 1960. The ecosystem of Lake Kariba has changed dramatically since it was created in 1958, and the nutrients released by the collapse of the floating water-fern Salvinia molesta evidently brought about an increase in fisheries productivity that lasted for only a few years. This could account for some of the decreased catches attributed to climate change, although the data from the inshore fishery may be unreliable in any case. There is little evidence that climate change has affected the inshore fish stocks. On the other hand, research data from a fished area in Zambia and a closed area in Zimbabwe clearly reveal the impact of fishing. The catch per unit effort (CPUE) in gill nets decreased steadily in Zambia but the CPUE increased in Zimbabwe until it was around 2.5 times greater than in Zambia. The fishery for the introduced sardine Limnothrissa miodon is influenced by river flow, itself a reflection of the climate in the huge catchment area above the lake, and by the seasonal cycle of stratification. These factors do not explain all the variation in the catch of this species, and its CPUE declined through periods when river flows were both high and low. The impact of fishing is the only factor that can explain this. © 2012 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.",Does climate change really explain changes in the fisheries productivity of lake kariba (zambia-zimbabwe)?,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1905789,"Hydrological responses to land use/land cover (LULC) changes are complex in nature and tend to have an impact on the hydrological cycle, affecting the livelihood of the inhabitants. Rainfall-runoff models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, were used in the past to unravel the interactions between the impacts of climate and land use changes. However, the sensitivity of the model outcome, regarding the hydrological and erosive response to climatic data derived with different methods, has not been fully understood. We carried out a hydrological simulation using (a) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data set, which synthesises outputs of global climate models along with gauged weather information and has a global coverage, and (b) purely weather station-based gridded climate data provided by Indian Meteorological Department. A possible LULC scenario for the year 2020 was created using the combined Cellular Automata-Markov model. Application of both climate data sets resulted in a modest increase in the predicted streamflow and sediment yield as a response to the probable development scenario in 2020. However, the marked variations emerged in the location and monthly pattern of significant changes in the surface runoff and sediment yield in response to the likely LULC scenario for 2020 vis-a-vis 2010.",Impact of different types of meteorological data inputs on predicted hydrological and erosive responses to projected land use changes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2318432,"Blighia sapida (ackee) is a multipurpose species important for the livelihoods of rural populations and is traditionally managed by farmers in different land use systems. This study first addresses farmers' knowledge on management and perception of variation of the species among different ethnic groups taking into account gender differences. Second, it explores the genetic diversity on amplified fragment length polymorphism markers (AFLPs) of 14 populations sampled in different climatic zones of Benin. Results of both methods are integrated to provide strategies for sustainable domestication and conservation of ackee genetic resources. People have reported nine criteria mostly related to the fruits to differentiate between types. Ackee phenotypes with preferred fruit traits (size, colour, aril taste and oil content) are perceived by local people to be more abundant in managed in situ and cultivated stands than in unmanaged wild populations. Ackee has moderate levels of diversity in Benin (mean and total genetic diversity values are PPL=52.8%, Hj=0.157 respectively for 375 AFLP fragments) and little differentiation among populations and climatic zones (Phi(ST)=0.054, G(ST)=0.022). There are few concerns about genetic erosion within populations managed by farmers in agroforestry systems. In the perspective of an improvement programme, the breeding population should consist of many individual trees selected within a few populations to capture a large proportion of variation. Germplasm collection must also consider the morphological features essential for the users as well as their perspectives for cultivation and improvement. A strategy for the conservation of maximum genetic diversity would be to maximise the genetic distance between populations included in a conservation programme.","Indigenous Knowledge, Traditional Management and Genetic Diversity of the Endogenous Agroforestry Species Ackee (Blighia sapida) in Benin",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2360870,"The annual average temperature in Lower Saxony rose by 1.5 degrees C since 1881, with maximum summer temperatures and the frequency of summer droughts increasing. At the same time, the length of the growing season has extended and annual mean precipitation amounts have risen by 17 % during the period between 1881 and 2011. While winter precipitation increased significantly, summer precipitation exhibited a downwards trend and low water indices for inland waters indicate a growing severity since 1960. Multi-model ensembles of a variety of climate studies suggest that the climate trends started in the past century will continue at least until 2050. The averaged change signal of the annual mean temperature is projected by different studies to lay in the range between 0.9 and 1.4 degrees C for the 2021 to 2050 period and 1.0 to 3.5 degrees C until 2100 (independent of the emission scenario, reference period 1971-2000). Precipitation projections made in various publications, on the other hand, yield a broad range of seasonal rainfall changes, which, at the moment, limits the possibility of reaching reliable conclusions concerning changes in groundwater recharge. However, averaged trends of multi-model ensembles indicate as a tendency a further increase of annual precipitation amounts by 4 to 7 %for the period 2021-2050 and by 1 to 11 % until 2100 (independent of the emission scenario, reference period 1971-2000).This development will likely be accompanied by a shift in rainfall amounts from summer to winter. Possible impacts of climate change on groundwater management include seasonal changes in both water availability and water demand and are already to be expected for the period 2021 to 2050. If adaption strategies are not implemented, the situation is likely to cause tensions in the water sector due to conflicts between sustainable management objectives and a climatically influenced changing societal groundwater demand.",Climate change in Lower Saxony (Germany) and possible consequences for groundwater management: a review,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2267830,"The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080-2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986-2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust-attributable all-cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust-attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate-driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34-47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986-2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national-scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust-related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature-related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss. Plain Language Summary The southwestern United States is projected to experience severe, multidecadal droughts due to human-caused climate change. Mineral dust particles are a major contributor to air pollution in this region due to abundant deserts and drylands. To what extent could airborne dust levels increase as a result of the projected drought conditions? To answer this question, we first investigate the influence of drought conditions across southwestern North America on dust activity in recent years. We then use the observed relationships between dust and droughts to estimate future changes in dust levelsand the associated excess deaths and illnessesthrough the end of the century, using projections of temperature and precipitation from global climate models following two plausible (high and intermediate) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Under the high emissions scenario, premature mortality associated with dust exposure increases by 220% and hospitalization increases by 160% toward the end of this century, due to combined increases in population, disease rates, and dust levels. The annual economic damages of these health impacts are estimated to be $47 billion per year additional to the present-day value of $13 billion per year, making climate-driven changes in dust concentrations one of the costliest impacts projected for the United States so far.",Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2360767,"Anthropogenic climate change poses substantial challenges to biodiversity conservation. Effects of climate change on summer conditions and associated heat and desiccation stress have attracted much research interest, while the implications of changing winter conditions on hibernation have hitherto received fairly little attention. This is surprising as the latter may also strongly affect biodiversity. By investigating the effects of overwintering conditions on diapause and postdiapause survival in a temperate-zone butterfly, we found that warmer and moister winter conditions substantially decreased survival rates. However, detrimental effects were restricted to survival during diapause and subsequent development and had no clear effects on butterfly performance. We suggest that overwintering survival is an important driver of vulnerability to climate change. Our study stresses the importance of collating more data on overwintering survival in species with different hibernation strategies to predict the impact of ongoing climate change on biodiversity.",Strong reduction in diapause survival under warm and humid overwintering conditions in a temperate-zone butterfly,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3949873,"Spontaneous otoacoustic emissions were recorded in 41 ears of 29 European edible frogs (Rana esculenta). Emission frequencies ranged from 450 to 1350 Hz. The distribution of frequencies shows two distinct populations: one above and one below 1 kHz. With one exception, a maximum number of two emissions were recorded per ear, each in a different population. An amplitude distribution of a frog emission was sampled, from which it was concluded that the emission is generated by an active oscillator. The spectral width of an emission ranged from 1 to 200 Hz (average 38 Hz). There was negative correlation between sound pressure level of an emission and spectral width. In 4 frogs the dependence of emission power and frequency on temperature was investigated. An emission could be 'switched on and off' within a few degrees centigrade. At temperatures below the switching interval no emission was recorded; for higher temperatures emission power showed no dependence on temperature. Frequency increased with temperature (Q10 = 1.1 to 1.3). This yields a mismatch with temperature dependence of best frequencies of auditory fibers. The consequences of this mismatch are discussed. © 1989.",Spontaneous otoacoustic emissions in the European edible frog (Rana esculenta): Spectral details and temperature dependence,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1685200,"The application of downscaled climate scenarios can be used to inform management decisions on investment in water treatment infrastructure or alternative water sources. Appropriate models of the system components potentially impacted by climate change such as catchments, rivers, lakes and reservoirs are required. The sensitivity of the coupled hydrodynamic water quality model ELCOM-CAEDYM to climate drivers was investigated to determine its suitability for evaluating climate change impacts and to evaluate the most important climatic drivers. A case study application of the model to Happy Valley Reservoir was used in the investigation (Romero et al. 2005). The hydrodynamic model was validated against field measurements without calibration. The ecological model was set up using values derived from literature sources and measurements made at other reservoirs. Manual calibration of some parameters was performed, however, performance metrics were not provided by Romero et al. (2005). A series of simulations were run with altered boundary condition inputs for the reservoir. Air and inflowing water temperature (TEMP), wind speed (WIND) and reservoir inflow and outflow (FLOW) were altered to investigate the sensitivity of these key drivers over relevant domains. The simulated water quality variables responded in the broadly expected manner to the altered boundary conditions; sensitivity of the simulated cyanobacteria population to increases in temperature was similar to published values. This study demonstrated that ELCOM-CAEDYM is sensitive to climate drivers and suitable for use in climate impact studies. It further highlighted the important factors in determining phytoplankton growth and that any changes in inflowing water quality will be of major importance to the dynamics of raw water quality.",Suitability of a coupled hydrodynamic water quality model to predict changes in water quality from altered meteorological boundary conditions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+282961,"The Arctic is a sensitive system undergoing dramatic changes related to recent warming trends. Vegetation dynamics-increases in the quantity of green vegetation and a northward migration of trees into the arctic tundra-are a component of this change. Although field studies over long time periods can be logistically problematic, simulation modeling provides a means for projecting changes in arctic and subarctic vegetation caused by environmental variations.",Simulating future changes in Arctic and subarctic vegetation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+690792,"Reverend Richard Davis (1790-1863) was a colonial-era missionary stationed in the Far North of New Zealand who was a key figure in the early efforts of the Church Mission Society. He kept meticulous meteorological records for the early settlements of Waimate North and Kaikohe, and his observations are preserved in a two-volume set in the Sir George Grey Special Collections in the Auckland Central Library. The Davis diary volumes are significant because they constitute some of the earliest land-based meteorological measurements that were continually chronicled for New Zealand. The diary measurements cover nine years within the 1839-1851 time span that are broken into two parts: 1839-1844 and 1848-1851. Davis' meteorological recordings include daily 9 a.m. and noon temperatures and midday pressure measurements. Qualitative comments in the diary note prevailing wind flow, wind strength, cloud cover, climate variability impacts, bio-indicators suggestive of drought, and notes on extreme weather events. ""Dirty weather"" comments scattered throughout the diary describe disturbed conditions with strong winds and driving rainfall. The Davis diary entries coincide with the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and they indicate southerly and westerly circulation influences and cooler winter temperatures were more frequent than today. A comparison of climate field reconstructions derived from the Davis diary data and tree-ring-based winter temperature reconstructions are supported by tropical coral palaeotemperature evidence. Davis' pressure measurements were corroborated using ship log data from vessels associated with iconic Antarctic exploration voyages that were anchored in the Bay of Islands, and suggest the pressure series he recorded are robust and can be used as ""station data"". The Reverend Davis meteorological data are expected to make a significant contribution to the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions across the Earth (ACRE) project, which feeds the major data requirements for the longest historical reanalysis - the 20th Century Reanalysis Project (20CR). Thus these new data will help extend surface pressure-based reanalysis reconstructions of past weather covering New Zealand within the data-sparse Southern Hemisphere.","The ""dirty weather"" diaries of Reverend Richard Davis: insights about early colonial-era meteorology and climate variability for northern New Zealand, 1839-1851",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1002682,"Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041-2060) relative to 1970-2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300-43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200-36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300-29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800-14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200-40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities located in the North, East and Central regions of China. Population adaptation to heat is likely to reduce excess heat mortality, but the extent of adaptation is still unclear. Future heat mortality risk attributable to exposure to elevated warm season temperature is likely to be considerable in China's urban centers, with substantial geographic variations. Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk and produce substantial public health benefits.",Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+462325,"Background: Tussock tundra is a main component of the Low Arctic vegetation cover. As it is adapted to underlying permafrost, its marginal sites at its southern distribution limit could be excellent indicators of climate change. There are still some scattered outpost stands of tussock tundra in the subarctic-alpine area of northern Fennoscandia, now showing signs of decline. Aims: The objective was to document changes in community structure of the tussock tundra over a 12-year period in experimentally warmed plots and in non-manipulated controls. In addition, the study included a survey of the present cover of tussock tundra in northern Swedish Lapland and a long-term monitoring of annual flowering intensity in the dominant species, the arctic hare's-tail cottongrass, Eriophorum vaginatum. Methods: The extent of tussock tundra in the region was assessed in a helicopter survey in 2005, followed by ground truthing in 2006. Climate and permafrost have been monitored at Latnjajaure, northern Swedish Lapland, since 1992. An experimental warming study employing open-top chambers (OTCs) was initiated at Latnjajaure for a number of habitats in 1993-1995, and all tussock tundra plots were surveyed in 1995 and 2006. Non-manipulated, permanently marked E. vaginatum tussocks were monitored for flowering frequency annually in 1992-2008. Results: The helicopter survey indicated that tussock tundra covers only few km(2) in northernmost Sweden. A stand at the lower end of its altitude range was already in an advanced stage of transition into shrub tundra. In the OTCs at Latnjajaure, evergreen boreal dwarf-shrubs (particularly Vaccinium vitis-idaea) increased in above-ground biomass about eightfold between 1995 and 2006, and almost fourfold in the controls. There has been a significant warming trend in the study area of 0.12 degrees C per year, likely explaining why the control plots have also changed. The annual monitoring of E. vaginatum flowering indicated a tendency for relaxed synchrony of masting episodes in recent years, probably caused by longer growing seasons. Conclusions: Tussock tundra stands at the southern margin of the ecosystem's range are undergoing rapid changes at present. Increased air temperature and permafrost degradation are likely to be the main drivers of the observed change.",Long-term impacts of observed and induced climate change on tussock tundra near its southern limit in northern Sweden,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+604905,"Flowering is a critical stage in plant life cycles, and changes in phenology might alter processes at the species, community and ecosystem levels. Therefore, likely flowering-time responses to global-change drivers are needed for predictions of global-change impacts on natural and managed ecosystems. Predicting responses of species to global changes would be simplified if functional, phylogenetic or biogeographical traits contributed substantially to a species' response. Here we investigate the role of growth form (grass, graminoid, forb, subshrub), longevity (annual, perennial), origin ( native, exotic) and flowering time in determining the impact of elevated [CO2] ( 550 mmol mol(-1)) and infrared warming (mean warming of +2 degrees C) on flowering times of 31 co-occurring species of a range of species-types in a temperate grassland in 2004, 2005 and 2007. Warming reduced time to first flowering by an average of 20.3 days in 2004, 2.1 days in 2005 and 7.6 days in 2007; however, the response varied among species and was unrelated to growth form, origin or longevity. Elevated [CO2] did not alter flowering times; neither was there any [CO2] by species-type interaction. However, both warming and elevated [CO2] tended to have a greater effect on later-flowering species, with time to first flowering of later-flowering species being reduced by both elevated [CO2] (P < 0.001) and warming (P < 0.001) to a greater extent than that of earlier-flowering species. These results have rami. cations for our predictions of community and ecosystem interactions in native grasslands in response to global change.","Elevated CO2 and warming impacts on flowering phenology in a southern Australian grassland are related to flowering time but not growth form, origin or longevity",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1353672,"BACKGROUND Dengue fever is a viral disease that affects tropical and subtropical regions of the world. It is well known that processes related to virus transmission by mosquitoes are highly influenced by weather. Temperature has been described as one of the climatic variables that largely governs the development and survival of mosquito eggs as well as the survival of all insect stages. Previously, we noted that high temperatures in the Colombian city of Riohacha negatively affect the establishment of dengue virus (DENV) infection in mosquitoes; in Bello and Villavicencio cities, which have lower average temperatures, DENV infection rates in mosquitoes are positively associated with a gradual increase in temperature. Here, we test the hypothesis that a similar effect of temperature can be detected in the incidence in the human population inhabiting dengue-endemic cities in Colombia. OBJECTIVE Our objective was to evaluate the effect of climate variables related to temperature on DENV incidence in human populations living in DENV-endemic cities in Colombia. METHODS Epidemiologic data from the Instituto Nacional de Salud from 2012-2015 and 7 variables related to temperature were used to perform Spearman rank sum test analyses on 20 Colombian cities. Additionally, locally estimated scatterplot smoothing analyses were performed to describe the relationship among temperatures and incidence. FINDINGS Results indicated that Colombian cities with average and maximum temperatures greater than 28 degrees C and 32 degrees C, respectively, had an inversely related relationship to DENV incidence, which is in accordance with areas where higher temperatures are recorded in Colombia. CONCLUSION Climatic variables related to temperature affect dengue epidemiology in different way. According to the temperature of each city, transmission might be positively or negatively affected.",Estimating Effects of Temperature on Dengue Transmission in Colombian Cities,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1491546,"Research into the health impacts of heat has proliferated since 2000. Temperature increases could exacerbate the increased heat already experienced by urban populations due to urbanization. Heat-related mortality studies have found that hot southern cities in North America have not experienced the summer increases in mortality found in their more northern counterparts. Heat-related morbidity studies have not assessed this possible regional difference. This comparison study uses data from emergency 911 dispatches [referred to as heat-related dispatches (HRD)] identified by responders as heat-related for two United States cities located in different regions with very different climates: Chicago, Illinois in the upper midwest and Phoenix, Arizona in the southwest. Phoenix's climate is hot and arid. Chicago's climate is more temperate, but can also experience days with unusually high temperatures combined with high humidity. This study examines the relationships between rising HRD and daily temperatures: maximum (Tmax); apparent (ATmax): minimum (Tmin) and two energy balance indices (PET and UTCI). Phoenix had more HRD cumulatively, over a longer warm weather season, but did not experience the large spikes in HRD that occurred in Chicago, even though it was routinely subjected to much hotter weather conditions. Statistical analyses showed the strongest relationships to daily ATmax for both cities. Phoenix's lack of HRD spikes, similar to the summer mortality patterns for southern cities, suggests an avenue for future research to better understand the dynamics of possible physiological or behavioral adaption that seems to reduce residents' vulnerability to heat.","A comparative climate analysis of heat-related emergency 911 dispatches: Chicago, Illinois and Phoenix, Arizona USA 2003 to 2006",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+223019,"Floods cause more damage in Russia than any other natural disaster, and future climate model projections suggest that the frequency and magnitude of extreme hydrological events will increase in Russia with climate change. Here we analyze daily discharge records from a new data set of 139 Russian gauges in the Eurasian Arctic drainage basin with watershed areas from 16.1 to 50,000 km(2) for signs of change in maximum river discharge. Several hypotheses about changes in maximum daily discharge and their linking with trends in precipitation over the cold season were tested. For the magnitude of maximum daily discharge we found relatively equal numbers of significant positive and negative trends across the Russian Arctic drainage basin, which draws into question the hypothesis of an increasing risk of extreme floods. We observed a significant shift to earlier spring discharge, which is consistent with documented changes in snowmelt and freeze-thaw dates. Spatial analysis of changes in maximum discharge and cold season precipitation revealed consistency across most of the domain, the exception being the Lena basin. Trends in maximum discharge of the small- to medium-sized rivers were generally consistent with aggregated signals found for the downstream gauges of the six largest Russian rivers. Although we observe regional changes in maximum discharge across the Russian Arctic drainage basin, no evidence of widespread trends in extreme discharge can be assumed from our analysis.",Temporal and spatial variations in maximum river discharge from a new Russian data set,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+152534,"Studies in temperate countries have shown that both hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter increase short-term (daily) mortality. The gradual warming, decade on decade, that Australia has experienced since the 1960s, might therefore be expected to have differentially affected mortality in the two seasons, and thus indicate an early impact of climate change on human health. Failure to detect such a signal would challenge the widespread assumption that the effect of weather on mortality implies a similar effect of a change from the present to projected future climate. We examine the ratio of summer to winter deaths against a background of rising average annual temperatures over four decades: the ratio has increased from 0.71 to 0.86 since 1968. The same trend, albeit of varying strength, is evident in all states of Australia, in four age groups (aged 55 years and above) and in both sexes. Analysis of cause-specific mortality suggests that the change has so far been driven more by reduced winter mortality than by increased summer mortality. Furthermore, comparisons of this seasonal mortality ratio calculated in the warmest subsets of seasons in each decade, with that calculated in the coldest seasons, show that particularly warm annual conditions, which mimic the expected temperatures of future climate change, increase the likelihood of higher ratios (approaching 1:1). Overall, our results indicate that gradual climate change, as well as short-term weather variations, affect patterns of mortality.","Shifts in the seasonal distribution of deaths in Australia, 1968-2007",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+35527,"Synopsis: This chapter presents an overview of the main vegetation types within the drylands of Iran and discusses the implications for biodiversity conservation and the role that indigenous plants can play in rangeland rehabilitation. Examples are presented of successful re-vegetation efforts. Key Points Environmental (topography, climate) features have an important role on plant diversity and richness of Iran. On the basis of environmental factors, four ecological zones were established on the basis of specific plant richness from lowest area to highest area (Hyrcanian, Khalij-O-Omani, Zagross and Iran-O-Touranian zones) respectively. Elevation is from -28 m which is close to Caspian Sea to 5,678 m which is located in the Alborz mountains. Two mountains (Alborz and Zagros) play a role as a wall that does not allow the moisture to go to the center of Iran (rain shadow effect). About 8,000 plant species of Iran, the most of them with different life forms (Herb, Grass, Shrub and tree), are distributed in Hyrcanian zone that is located in the northern part of Iran. In contrast, the lowest plant diversity is in the southern part of Iran (Khalij-O-Omanian zone), which is a flat area. The highest vast area (Iran-O-Touranian) is distributed in the center of Iran which is divided into two divisions with mountain part and plain area. The western part of Iran (Zagros zone) is affected by Mediterranean and Black sea moisture which has snow in the winter and low plant species with herb, grass, and tree life forms. Topography and climate factors have important affect on plant distribution and richness of Iran and they play an important role on ecological biodiversity of this country Iran has 86 million ha of natural grazing land. Over the last 50 years, most of the semi-arid rangeland in Iran has been converted to cropland without an equivalent reduction in grazing animal numbers. This shift has led to heavy grazing pressure on rangeland vegetation. Iran is endowed with a rich diversity of families, genera, and species (8,000 species) of plants. As a significant source of the world's genetic resources and plant biodiversity, the consequence of increased grazing pressure on Iran plant diversity is of great interest and has been studied with a view to devising more sustainable grazing practices. The dryland is suffering from increased desertification. More and more of the once vegetated land is becoming barren and bare. This loss of vegetation not only leads to desertification, but also contributes to global climate change because of the decreased capacity of the environment to absorb carbon from the atmosphere. Exclusion can be considered as a management tool for restoring rangelands vegetation. Exclusion of livestock either on a long term basis, or seasonally, is a simple and inexpensive method of restoration and improvement of rangeland. Appropriate management practices and adopting suitable restoration procedures to enhance the level of rangeland renewal and restoration of rangelands, requires enough information and knowledge on rangeland ecosystems. Since vegetation coverage forms a substantial portion of natural ecosystems structure, therefore, its studying and examining is the first step toward gaining scientific knowledge, accurate understanding of phenomena and events taking place in the rangeland ecosystems. In addition, rangeland managers observing the status of plants inside exclusion and comparing it with outside the exclusion can assess the condition of rangeland inside and outside of the exclosure. Large-scale re-vegetation using both indigenous plants (mainly shrubs like Haloxylon spp.) and imported species (principally Atriplex canescens) has been conducted as part of participatory projects designed to relieve poverty, improve rangeland productivity and teach skills in nursery practice, plant propagation and re-vegetation technology. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. All rights reserved.","Indigenous plant species from the drylands of Iran, distribution and potential for habitat maintenance and repair",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+118418,"A growing body of evidence claims there is a pivotal role of heat temperatures and summer hot spells in the pathogenesis of exceeding morbidity and mortality among older people. The European well-known ""2003 killer hot summer"" has boosted many epidemiological and clinical investigations to clarify the pathogenetic correlation between hot spells and elderly mortality with new acquirements in terms of pathophysiology, preventive measures, and therapeutic approaches. However, a quite controversial issue arises: overall elderly mortality is higher in the cold winter compared with summer. The progressive development of preventive, therapeutic, and environmental measures, if targeted with promptness, has generally proven effective in coping with heat temperature, restraining elderly mortality. However, few investigations have been performed dealing with cold, with pioneeristic as well as simplistic approaches, without any conclusiveness or effectiveness in terms of prevention or therapy. Data from recent literature enlist various clinical and environmental approaches in counteracting cold-related mortality in elderly, but lack evidence-based results; a recent European collaborative study reported cold-related elderly mortality as non-negligible, deserving the growing attention of public authorities. We conducted a 4-year survey among 6 different nursing homes located in a seaside city of northern Italy so as to collect epidemiological data on stressful weather spells and elderly mortality. Our results showed that overall elderly mortality in the cold season displayed as significantly high rates as in summer, and the monthly deaths per year of observation showed higher rates in the cold season, addressing it as the most prevalent time period related to mortality in older people. Thus, research in the field is mandatory so as to draw a broader conceptual framework for the stratification of specific population risk profiling and the assessment of adequate preventive and therapeutic measures. To the present knowledge, the lack of pathophysiological understanding, the missing evidence-based data in coping with cold weather-related elderly mortality, together with policy makers' misconceptions is mounting the controversy on this emerging clinical issue. (J Am Med Dir Assoc 2010; 11:449-452)",For Debate: The August Sun and the December Snow,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2186928,"We present a field-data rich modelling analysis to reconstruct the climatic forcing, glacier response, and runoff generation from a high-elevation catchment in central Chile over the period 2000-2015 to provide insights into the differing contributions of debris-covered and debris-free glaciers under current and future changing climatic conditions. Model simulations with the physically based glacio-hydrological model TOPKAPI-ETH reveal a period of neutral or slightly positive mass balance between 2000 and 2010, followed by a transition to increasingly large annual mass losses, associated with a recent mega drought. Mass losses commence earlier, and are more severe, for a heavily debris-covered glacier, most likely due to its strong dependence on snow avalanche accumulation, which has declined in recent years. Catchment runoff shows a marked decreasing trend over the study period, but with high interannual variability directly linked to winter snow accumulation, and high contribution from ice melt in dry periods and drought conditions. The study demonstrates the importance of incorporating local-scale processes such as snow avalanche accumulation and spatially variable debris thickness, in understanding the responses of different glacier types to climate change. We highlight the increased dependency of runoff from high Andean catchments on the diminishing resource of glacier ice during dry years.",Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high-elevation Andean catchment: understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1782,"The relation between changes in modern glaciers, not including the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, and their climatic environment is investigated to shed light on paleoglacier evidence of past climate change and for projecting the effects of future climate warming on cold regions of the world. Loss of glacier volume has been more or less continuous since the 19th century, but it is not a simple adjustment to the end of an ""anomalous"" Little Ice Age. We address the 1961-1997 period, which provides the most observational data on volume changes. These data show trends that are highly variable with time as well as within and between regions; trends in the Arctic are consistent with global averages but are quantitatively smaller. The averaged annual volume loss is 147 mm.yr(-1) in water equivalent, totaling 3.7 x 10(3) km(3) over 37 yr, The time series shows a shift during the mid-1970s, followed by more rapid loss of ice volume and further acceleration in the last decade; this is consistent with climatologic data. Perhaps most significant is an increase in annual accumulation along with an increase in melting; these produce a marked increase in the annual turnover or amplitude. The rise in air temperature suggested by the temperature sensitivities of glaciers in cold regions is somewhat greater than the global average temperature rise derived largely from low altitude gauges, and the warming is accelerating.",Twentieth century climate change: Evidence from small glaciers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+696142,"Although many studies have examined the phenological mismatches between interacting organisms, few have addressed the potential for mismatches between phenology and seasonal weather conditions. In the Arctic, rapid phenological changes in many taxa are occurring in association with earlier snowmelt. The timing of snowmelt is jointly affected by the size of the late winter snowpack and the temperature during the spring thaw. Increased winter snowpack results in delayed snowmelt, whereas higher air temperatures and faster snowmelt advance the timing of snowmelt. Where interannual variation in snowpack is substantial, changes in the timing of snowmelt can be largely uncoupled from changes in air temperature. Using detailed, long-term data on the flowering phenology of four arctic plant species from Zackenberg, Greenland, we investigate whether there is a phenological component to the temperature conditions experienced prior to and during flowering. In particular, we assess the role of timing of flowering in determining pre-flowering exposure to freezing temperatures and to the temperatures experienced prior to flowering. We then examine the implications of flowering phenology for flower abundance. Earlier snowmelt resulted in greater exposure to freezing conditions, suggesting an increased potential for a mismatch between the timing of flowering and seasonal weather conditions and an increased potential for negative consequences, such as freezing damage. We also found a parabolic relationship between the timing of flowering and the temperature experienced during flowering after taking interannual temperature effects into account. If timing of flowering advances to a cooler period of the growing season, this may moderate the effects of a general warming trend across years. Flower abundance was quadratically associated with the timing of flowering, such that both early and late flowering led to lower flower abundance than did intermediate flowering. Our results indicate that shifting the timing of flowering affects the temperature experienced during flower development and flowering beyond that imposed by interannual variations in climate. We also found that phenological timing may affect flower abundance, and hence, fitness. These findings suggest that plant population responses to future climate change will be shaped not only by extrinsic climate forcing, but also by species' phenological responses.",Phenological mismatch with abiotic conditions-implications for flowering in Arctic plants,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+162451,"Climate change caused by anthropogenic activities has generated a variety of research focusing on investigating the past climate, predicting the future climate and quantifying the change in climate extreme events by using different climate models. Climate extreme events are valuable to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on human activities, agriculture and economy and are also useful to monitor the climate change on global scale. Here, a Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation is used to study the future variations in the temperature extreme indices, particularly change in frequency of warm and cold spells duration over Pakistan. The analyses are done on the basis of simulating two 30 years simulations with the Hadley Center's RCM PRECIS, at a horizontal resolution of 50 km. Simulation for the period 1961-1990 represents the recent climate and simulation for the period 2071-2100 represents the future climate. These simulations are driven by lateral boundary conditions from HadAM3P GCM of Hadley centre UK. For the validation of model, observed mean, maximum and minimum temperatures for the period 1961-1990 at all the available stations in Pakistan are first averaged and are then compared with the PRECIS averaged grid-box data. Also the observed monthly gridded data set of Climate Research Unit (UK) data is used to validate the model. Temperature indices in the base period as well as in future are then calculated and the corresponding change is observed. Percentile based spatial change of temperature shows that in summer, increase in daily minimum temperature is more as compared to the increase of daily maximum temperature whereas in winter, the change in maximum temperature is high. The occurrence of annual cold spells shows significantly decreasing trend while for warm spells there is slight increasing trend over Pakistan.",Future change in the frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulated by the PRECIS regional climate model,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3975559,"An original dataset for the Dobruja, a low plateau region of southeastern Romania, is used to perform a statistical study of the spatial distribution of rainfall at annual and seasonal time-scales. A principal component analysis (PCA) is carried out to identify the precipitation regimes. The high eigenvalue of PC1 attests of the prevailing temperate-continental regime, with a relatively dry winter opposed to a late spring and early summer rainfall maximum. PC2 shows the specific pattern of the coast, with a small secondary maximum in November. In spite of the relatively flat topography, annual rainfall is characterized by a strong gradient between the coast and the interior. Particularly low amounts are observed along the Black Sea coast. This spatial distribution arises from a combination of specific seasonal patterns among which the warm season presents the most acute spatial differentiation. Altitude and distance from the Black Sea are analysed as potential factors of this spatial distribution, reinforced during the warm season. Correlation and stepwise regression indicate that the altitude effect is moderate compared with the distance from the sea. During autumn and winter the sea-surface temperature (SST) is 2 or 3°C higher than that of the land surface: air instability is increased along the coast. During spring and summer, an opposite pattern is observed, with differences exceeding 6°C. A strong sea-land thermal gradient generates frequent sea-breeze circulations. Convective storms developing along the landward moving sea-breeze front, approximately 30-35 km inland, explain the high rainfall amount recorded over the plateau. In contrast, the Black Sea coast experiences dry and sunny summers. Copyright (C) 2000 Royal Meteorological Society.",Spatial distribution of the precipitation in Dobruja (Romania/Black Sea),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1303917,"Central Asia, which is one of the most complex regions in the world, is crisscrossed with transboundary rivers shared by several countries. This paper analyzes the effects of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes and water resources in these transboundary rivers over the past half century. The results show that the average temperature in the Tienshan Mountains experienced sharp increases in 1998, with the average temperature after 1998 being 1.0 degrees C higher than that during 1960-1998. This rapid warming has accelerated glacier shrinkage and decreases in snow cover. These changes influenced the hydrological processes, causing an earlier runoff peak and aggravated extreme hydrological events. Changes in mountainous hydrological processes affected regional water availability and intensified future water crisis in Central Asia. The mismatched spatial distributions of water and land resources, along with the intense human activities (e.g., overexploitation of water resources), have ultimately led to the present water crisis in Central Asia's river basins. This is the main reason for ongoing water conflicts in the region's transboundary rivers and the ecological disaster of the Aral Sea.",Large Hydrological Processes Changes in the Transboundary Rivers of Central Asia,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+1529005,"The rapidly warming temperatures in high-latitude and alpine regions have the potential to alter the phenology of Arctic and alpine plants, affecting processes ranging from food webs to ecosystem trace gas fluxes. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) was initiated in 1990 to evaluate the effects of expected rapid changes in temperature on tundra plant phenology, growth and community changes using experimental warming. Here, we used the ITEX control data to test the phenological responses to background temperature variation across sites spanning latitudinal and moisture gradients. The dataset overall did not show an advance in phenology; instead, temperature variability during the years sampled and an absence of warming at some sites resulted in mixed responses. Phenological transitions of high Arctic plants clearly occurred at lower heat sum thresholds than those of low Arctic and alpine plants. However, sensitivity to temperature change was similar among plants from the different climate zones. Plants of different communities and growth forms differed for some phenological responses. Heat sums associated with flowering and greening appear to have increased over time. These results point to a complex suite of changes in plant communities and ecosystem function in high latitudes and elevations as the climate warms.",Phenological response of tundra plants to background climate variation tested using the International Tundra Experiment,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3324870,"This paper examines a statistical relationship between air temperature. snow cover and its basal temperature in the zone of sporadic permafrost occurrence in the Tatra Mountains of Poland and Slovakia. A two-year record was analysed containing daily values of air temperature and snow cover depth at a reference station, and also winter ground surface temperature at 5 sites located in different topographic conditions. Correlation coefficients between the daily basal temperature of snow cover and mean air temperature or/and snow depth from previous days were calculated. The results show that inter-seasonal changes of winter ground surface temperature may be related both to changes in snow depth and air temperature in winter, and to air temperature changes in snow-free period. We infer that snow cover is an important but not necessarily a critical factor determining sporadic permafrost occurrence in the Tatra Mountains. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Influence of snow cover on ground surface temperature in the zone of sporadic permafrost, Tatra Mountains, Poland and Slovakia",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1306727,"Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including butterfly species. Research has focused primarily on high latitude species in North America, with no known studies examining responses of taxa in the southeastern United States. The Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana) has experienced a recent range retraction in that region, disappearing from lowland sites and now persisting in two phylogenetically distinct high elevation populations. These findings are consistent with the predicted effects of a warming climate on numerous taxa, including other butterfly species in North America and Europe. We used ecological niche modeling to predict future changes to the distribution of S. diana under several climate models. To evaluate how climate change might influence the geographic distribution of this butterfly, we developed ecological niche models using Maxent. We used two global circulation models, the community climate system model (CCSM) and the model for interdisciplinary research on climate (MIROC), under low and high emissions scenarios to predict the future distribution of S. diana. Models were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics area under curve (AUC) test and the true skill statistics (TSS) (mean AUC = 0.91 +/- 0.0028 SE, TSS = 0.87 +/- 0.0032 SE for representative concentration pathway (RCP) = 4.5; and mean AUC = 0.87 +/- 0.0031 SE, TSS = 0.84 +/- 0.0032 SE for RCP = 8.5), which both indicate that the models we produced were significantly better than random (0.5). The four modeled climate scenarios resulted in an average loss of 91% of suitable habitat for S. diana by 2050. Populations in the southern Appalachian Mountains were predicted to suffer the most severe fragmentation and reduction in suitable habitat, threatening an important source of genetic diversity for the species. The geographic and genetic isolation of populations in the west suggest that those populations are equally as vulnerable to decline in the future, warranting ongoing conservation of those populations as well. Our results suggest that the Diana fritillary is under threat of decline by 2050 across its entire distribution from climate change, and is likely to be negatively affected by other human-induced factors as well.",Changes in the Geographic Distribution of the Diana Fritillary (Speyeria diana: Nymphalidae) under Forecasted Predictions of Climate Change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+514879,"Background: Several epidemiological studies have observed significant short-term associations between ozone and daily mortality. In a context of climate change, it is important to understand how this association is influenced by the meteorological conditions. Objectives: We investigated how season and temperature modified the short-term effect of ozone on mortality by cause in nine French urban areas during the 1998-2006 period. Methods: The relationship between daily max-8 h ozone and daily mortality was analysed in each city using a time-stratified case-crossover model for the whole year, by season, and by temperature strata. Sensitivity of the results to the statistical modelling strategy, to the choice of the temperature terms, and to the introduction of PM2.5 was examined. Results: A 10 mu g m(-3) increase in daily ozone level was significantly associated with an increase in non-accidental (+0.3% [95% CI 0.1; 0.5]), cardiac (+0.7% [0.2; 1.1]) and cardiovascular mortality (+0.4% [0.0; 0.7]). The estimates were larger during summer (+0.8% [0.5; 1.2], +1.3% [0.6; 1.9] and +1.1% [0.3; 1.9] respectively) and for the warmest temperature strata (+0.9% [0.4; 1.3], +1.3% [0.6; 2.1] and +1.2% [0.3; 2.1] respectively). A significant interaction was found between ozone and warm days for non-accidental mortality. Results were robust to the sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: This study provides evidences of a larger impact of ozone when the temperatures are warmer for non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Ozone and short-term mortality in nine French cities: Influence of temperature and season,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2344977,"In the semiarid areas of Southwestern Europe (take the case of Andalusia in Spain) marginal soil cultivation has been gradually abandoned. Its resulting erosion processes are turning land into desert-like scenery. Marginal soil cultivation areas are unsuitably exploited zones where scarcely productive harvesting is obtained. From a global socioeconomic point of view, this kind of cropping, in fact, causes an environmental damage far more significant than its real cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, the impoverishment of the soil has developed a tough environmental deterioration of the landscape in these areas. The flow of technological, economical and social changes since the 1950s has had a major influence on these regions with a poor agricultural economy (mountain areas, arid and semiarid climates, unfavorable geological substrata) and provoked a boundless migratory rate. Further problems arise from the lack of labor capable to carry on with unprofitable family farms. As a consequence of that, wide areas all over the country, fully cultivated in the last decades-with no real agricultural tradition-are nowadays being abandoned and going in for extensive cattle raising, only to support an unpredictable subsistence economy in small village settlements. Spain has recently become a member of the European Union and this has made things worse in terms of the desertion of many other areas (some of them being just cultivated) since the Community's financial aid does not support these lands poor in natural resources. Once the soil cultivation is eliminated, the dynamics of the natural world show its inner power: just after the human activity has ceased, Nature resets its evolutionary process in different stages (pioneer plants, little shrubs, bushy thickets and finally trees), and sets the basis to regenerate the landscapes previous to man's destructive action. This is proved certain whenever the ecological conditions have not changed and the climatology shows favorable enough to speed up the natural process of regeneration. However when the adverse ecological conditions (such as soil erosion and low levels of rainfall) appear, the course of natural regeneration into arboreal species is not only restricted but counteracted by the highly powerful colonizing activity of nitrophytes and other weeds, endowed with an exceptional adaptability to extreme conditions (lack of water, limited and over-salted soils). This sub-desertic vegetation, therefore, is destined to replace the old Mediterranean shrub communities. Our research deals with the vegetal dynamics in these areas and proposes several operative patterns of ecological regeneration to restrain the advance of desert-like lands, not only within the Mediterranean scope but applicable as well to any other country with a similar climatology.","The desertification progression in the south-east of the Iberian peninsula (Spain, Europe)",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+743097,"The tropical ocean environment is changing at an unprecedented rate, with warming and severe tropical cyclones creating obvious impacts to coral reefs within the last few decades and projections of acidification raising concerns for the future of these iconic and economically important ecosystems. Documenting variability and detecting change in global and regional climate relies upon high-quality observational records of climate variables supplemented, prior to the mid-19th century, with reconstructions from various sources of proxy climate information. Here we review how annual density banding patterns that are recorded in the skeletons of massive reef-building corals have been used to document environmental change and impacts within coral reefs. Massive corals provide a historical perspective of continuous calcification processes that pre-date most ecological observations of coral reefs. High-density stress bands, abrupt declines in annual linear extension, and evidence of partial mortality within the skeletal growth record reveal signatures of catastrophic stress events that have recently been attributed to mass bleaching events caused by unprecedented thermal stress. Comparison of recent trends in annual calcification with century-scale baseline calcification rates reveals that the frequency of growth anomalies has increased since the late 1990s throughout most of the world's coral reef ecosystems. Continuous coral growth histories provide valuable retrospective information on the coral response to environmental change and the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Co-ordinated efforts to synthesize and combine global calcification histories will greatly enhance our understanding of current calcification responses to a changing ocean.",Perspectives on Massive Coral Growth Rates in a Changing Ocean,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+231802,"Communities located in the interface between marine/brackish and freshwater habitats are likely to be early responders to climatic changes as they are exposed to both saline and freshwater conditions, and thus are expected to be sensitive to any change in their environmental conditions. Climatic effects are predicted to reduce the availability of groundwater, altering the hydrological balance on estuarine-aquifer interfaces. Here, we aimed to characterise the estuarine faunal community along a gradient dependent on groundwater input, under a predicted climatic scenario of reduction in groundwater discharge into the estuary. Sediment macrofauna was sampled along a salinity gradient following both the wet and dry seasons in 2009. Results indicated that species abundance varied significantly with the salinity gradient created by the groundwater discharge into the estuarine habitat and with sampling time. The isopode Cyarhura carinata (Kroyer, 1847) and the polychaetes Heteromastus filiformis (Claparede, 1864) and Hediste diversicolor O.F. Muller, 1776 were associated with the more saline locations, while oligochaeta and Spionidae were more abundant in areas of lower salinity. The polychaete Alkmaria romijni Horst, 1919 was the dominant species and ubiquitous throughout sampling stations. This study provides evidence for estuarine fauna to be considered as a potentially valuable indicator of variation in the input of groundwater into marine-freshwater interface habitats, expected from climatic pressures on aquifer levels, condition and recharge rates. For instance, a reduction in the abundance of some polychaete species, found here to be more abundant in freshwater conditions, and increasing Oligochaeta found here on higher salinities, can potentially be early warnings of a reduction in the input of groundwater into estuaries. Estuarine benthic species are often the main prey for commercially important fish predators such as in our case study, making it important to monitor the aquatic habitat interfaces taking into consideration the estuarine macrobenthos and groundwater availability in the system. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Estuarine biodiversity as an indicator of groundwater discharge,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3924993,"Doppler ultrasonography was used to compare blood flow characteristics in the caudal artery of heifers fed diets with endophyte (Neotyphodium coenophialum) noninfected (E-, 0 microg of ergovaline/g of DM), a 1:1 mixture of endophyte-infected and E- (E+E-; 0.39 microg of ergovaline/g of DM), or endophyte-infected (E+, 0.79 microg of ergovaline/g of DM) tall fescue (Lolium arundinaceum) seed. Eighteen crossbred (Angus x Brangus) heifers [345 +/- 19 kg (SD)] were assigned to individual pens and fed chopped alfalfa hay plus a concentrate that contained E- tall fescue seed for 7 d during an adjustment period. A 9-d experimental period followed with feeding treatments of chopped alfalfa hay plus a concentrate with E+, E-, or E+E- seed being assigned randomly to pens. Doppler ultrasound measurements (caudal artery luminal area, peak systolic velocity, end diastolic velocity, mean velocity, heart rate, and flow rate) and serum prolactin were monitored during the adjustment (3 baseline measures) and during the experimental period (7 measures). Statistical analyses compared proportionate differences between baseline and responses at 3, 27, 51, 75, 171, and 195 h from initial feeding of the experimental diets. Serum prolactin concentrations for E+ and E+E- diets were less (P < 0.001) than baseline concentrations beginning at 27 and 51 h, respectively, from initial feeding of the diets. Although baseline measures were taken when ambient temperatures were likely below thermoneutrality, caudal artery luminal cross-sectional area in E+ heifers had declined (P = 0.004) from baseline by 27 h and remained less (P < 0.02) until 195 h, and caudal artery luminal area declined (P = 0.004) in E+E- heifers from baseline by 51 h and remained less (P < 0.07) until 171 h. Blood flow rate was slower than the baseline rate at 51 h for E+ (P = 0.058) and E+E- (P = 0.02 heifers, but blood flow remained slower in E+E- heifers for 48 h, whereas it remained slower in E+ heifers for 96 h. Adjustments in artery luminal area and blood rate with the 3 diets appeared to parallel the increases in ambient temperature. Heifers fed a diet containing a larger amount of ergot alkaloids had less of a response to ambient temperature than heifers consuming the diet with less or no ergot alkaloids.",Hemodynamics are altered in the caudal artery of beef heifers fed different ergot alkaloid concentrations.,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2312653,"Monitoring of land use and land cover change using remote sensing is important to evaluate the impacts of anthropogenic activities on the environment. Digital change detection using post-classification can help to elucidate dynamics of landscape change. This study illustrates the effectiveness of object-oriented classification compared to pixel-oriented classification in generating land cover information and its temporal changes. Spatio-temporal dynamics of land cover types in Vientiane area, Lao PDR were analyzed using Landsat images in two-time series (1990 and 2015). We used the top-down approach to classify the Landsat images in iterative steps with three hierarchical scale levels. Scale levels of 25, 10 and 5 with different weighting parameters were used to map the land cover type of Vientiane in 1990 and 2015. With object-oriented classification, overall accuracy and Kappa statistic were improved by 13.44% and 0.16 for land cover classification (LCC) 1990. For LCC 2015 the improvements in overall accuracy and Kappa statistic were 28.71% and 0.25. Based on the LCC 1990 and 2015, we observed an significant growth of plantation areas over the 25 years in the study area. Instead of traditional agricultural activity the plantation seemed to be the new driver in the rural areas of Lao PDR. The object-oriented classification approach can be applied in other areas of Lao PDR to generate accurate information on land cover changes for better land resource management.","Land Use and Land Cover Change in Vientiane Area, Lao PDR Using Object-Oriented Classification on Multi-Temporal Landsat Data",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+504603,"Mean daily streamflow records from 44 river basins in Romania with an undisturbed runoff regime have been analyzed for trends with the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for two periods of study: 1961-2009 (25 stations) and 1975-2009 (44 stations). The statistical significance of trends was tested for each station on an annual and seasonal basis, for different streamflow quantiles. In order to account for the presence of serial correlation that might lead to an erroneous rejection of the null hypothesis, a trend-free prewhitening was applied to the original data series. The regional field significance of trends is tested by a bootstrap procedure. Changes in the streamflow regime in Romania are demonstrated. The main identified trends are an increase in winter and autumn streamflow since 1961 and a decrease in summer flow since 1975. The streamflow trends are well explained by recent changes in temperature and precipitation that occurred in the last 50 years. Copyright (C) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Seasonal trends in Romanian streamflow,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1279717,"Predicting how species' abundances and ranges will shift in response to climate change requires a mechanistic understanding of how multiple factors interact to limit population growth. Both abiotic stress and species interactions can limit populations and potentially set range boundaries, but we have a poor understanding of when and where each is most critical. A commonly cited hypothesis, first proposed by Darwin, posits that abiotic factors (e.g., temperature, precipitation) are stronger determinants of range boundaries in apparently abiotically stressful areas (""stress"" indicates abiotic factors that reduce population growth), including desert, polar, or high-elevation environments, whereas species interactions (e.g., herbivory, competition) play a stronger role in apparently less stressful environments. We tested a core tenet of this hypothesis-that population growth rate is more strongly affected by species interactions in less stressful areas-using experimental manipulations of species interactions affecting a common herbaceous plant, Hibiscus meyeri (Malvaceae), across an aridity gradient in a semiarid African savanna. Population growth was more strongly affected by four distinct species interactions (competition with herbaceous and shrubby neighbors, herbivory, and pollination) in less stressful mesic areas than in more stressful arid sites. However, contrary to common assumptions, this effect did not arise because of greater density or diversity of interacting species in less stressful areas, but rather because aridity reduced sensitivity of population growth to these interactions. Our work supports classic predictions about the relative strength of factors regulating population growth across stress gradients, but suggests that this pattern results from a previously unappreciated mechanism that may apply to many species worldwide.",Aridity weakens population-level effects of multiple species interactions on Hibiscus meyeri,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+52853,"Understanding how fire weather danger indices changed in the past and how such changes affected forest fire activity is important in a changing climate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from two reanalysis data sets, ERA-40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporal variation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960-2012. Additionally, we used national forest fire statistics from Greece, Spain and Finland to examine the relationship between fire danger and fires. There is no obvious trend in fire danger for the time period covered by ERA-40 (1960-1999), whereas for the period 1980-2012 covered by ERA Interim, the mean FWI shows an increasing trend for southern and eastern Europe which is significant at the 99% confidence level. The cross correlations calculated at the national level in Greece, Spain and Finland between total area burned and mean FWI of the current season is of the order of 0.6, demonstrating the extent to which the current fire-season weather can explain forest fires. To summarize, fire risk is multifaceted, and while climate is a major determinant, other factors can contribute to it, either positively or negatively.",Temporal variations and change in forest fire danger in Europe for 1960-2012,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+805998,"Climate change is a serious challenge we are currently facing, as the impacts have already been occurring. Indonesia’s geographic and geological characteristics are also easily affected by climate change, natural disasters (earthquakes and tsunamis), and extreme weather (long drought and floods). Its urban areas also have high pollution levels. Much evidence can be seen, ranging from an increase in global temperature, variable season changes, extremely long droughts, high incidences of forest fires, and crop failures. This paper describes some evidences of climate change in Indonesia to weather disasters such as floods, landslides, and drought, burden of vector-borne diseases, air pollution from transportation and forest fires, and reemerging and newly emerging diseases. An evidence of health related to climate is based on a vulnerability assessment for dengue fever. To respond to its negative impacts to human, the health adaptation strategy and efforts undertaken in Indonesia nowadays include the following: to increase awareness of health consequences of climate change, to strengthen the capacity of health systems to provide protection from climate-related risks and substantially reduce health system’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and to ensure that health concerns are addressed in decisions to reduce risks from climate change in other key sectors. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016.",Health adaptation scenario and dengue fever vulnerability assessment in Indonesia,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+1867603,"Numerous climate change studies have recently, and are currently, being carried out across many regions of the world. However, is there sufficient confidence in the outputs of global climate models (GCMs) to make use of their projections at a regional scale; and secondly, if these results are to be used, how can researchers make the data directly usable by water managers? This paper shows results from a water availability study recently carried out across south-eastern Australia, and demonstrates how the results of this study were used by water resource managers in the State of Victoria in far southern south-east Australia. Across Victoria, there is a near unanimous agreement among climate model outputs of the direction of change of future rainfall, with 14 of the 15 AR4 GCMs examined projecting a reduction in rainfall across this region. Additionally, as these reductions in rainfall are quite high over the major runoff-generating areas, reductions in runoff (and therefore water availability) are also projected across the vast majority of the State. Climate change projections for this region were summarised by creating 'dry', 'wet' and 'median' future water availability scenarios for 2030 and 2060 based on results from the 2nd driest, 2nd wettest and 8th wettest (or driest) GCM. These results were then averaged across 27 catchments covering the State of Victoria so that they could easily be used by urban and rural water corporations in their future water planning. Of the 27 catchments covering Victoria, reductions in annual water availability (relative to the long term historical average) are projected for all 27 under both the 'dry' and 'median' future climate scenario for both 2030 and 2060. For the dry future scenario for 2030, projected reductions in water availability range from 18% to 34%, while for 2060, the reductions range from 34% to 58%. For the median future climate scenario, for 2030, reductions in water availability range from 8% to 22%, and 9% to 36% in 2060. Under the 'wet' future climate scenario, only 5 catchments project an increase in water availability for 2030 and 2060. These catchments are located in the far north and east of the State. The remaining 22 catchments project reductions in water availability of up to 11% by 2030 and 19% by 2060. These results have been used in defining a range of plausible water availability futures which Victorian water corporations are using in preparing updated Water Supply-Demand Strategies for all the supply systems that they manage. These strategies aim to balance supply and demand over the next 50 years. The reductions in water availability projected under the dry climate change scenario by 2060 are smaller than the reductions in water availability experienced during the recent drought (1997-2009) across much of the State. As climate research has shown that this drought appears to be at least partly linked to global warming, a future scenario based on a return to the dry conditions of the recent drought (1997-2009) in the short-term has also been included in the planning process. In those regions where there is near-unanimous agreement among GCMs as to the direction of climate change impacts on rainfall, projected changes in water availability can be used by water resource planners to assist them in better planning for future changes in supply. Even then however, climate researchers and hydrologists must work closely with water managers to ensure that the information is provided in a usable way.","Practical application of climate-induced projected changes in water availability to underpin the water planning process in Victoria, Australia",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3475297,"Larch casebearer is an invasive defoliator in North America distributed within the regions of two allopatric hosts, eastern larch and western larch. Despite the establishment of a successful importation biological control program and ongoing parasitism by both native and introduced parasitoids, larch casebearer has recently undergone outbreaks on eastern larch and western larch. We analyzed defoliation data from aerial surveys to quantify spatiotemporal synchrony and found that defoliation by larch casebearer was synchronous both within and between eastern and western larch forests. We also analyzed monthly minimum temperatures across the study region and found that warming spring temperatures in March and cooling fall/winter temperatures in October through December were positively correlated at distances comparable to those between the allopatric outbreaks of larch casebearer. For allopatric populations with positively correlated population dynamics, climate is the most likely driver of synchrony. Thus, we suggest that a changing climate has facilitated recent outbreaks of larch casebearer.",Climatic synchrony and increased outbreaks in allopatric populations of an invasive defoliator,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2510241,"Since 2002, human cases of West Nile virus (WNV) have occurred every year in southern Canada, but WNV risk remains challenging to predict. Here, we explored the ability of weather-based forecasting models to predict the seasonal abundance of two WNV vector species (Culex pipiens-restuans and Aedes vexans) in Quebec, Canada, and explored the importance of accounting for larvicide use and local habitat (forest park vs residential garden). A gamma-generalized linear model predicting mosquito abundance was developed based on an approach previously used in Ontario combining temperature and precipitation during the days preceding mosquito captures. This model was calibrated and validated for each species with independent entomological datasets from the Montreal region collected in 2013 and 2014. Culex pipiens-restuans abundance was associated with mean degree days (dd; > 9 degrees C) over the 22 d before mosquito capture and with mean precipitation over the 71 d before capture; Ae. vexans abundance with the mean dd (> 12 degrees C) over the 24 d before capture and mean precipitation over the 30 d before capture. These results are consistent with temperature effects on immature development rates and adult activity, and effects of precipitation on the abundance and suitability of breeding sites. Taking into account larvicide use and habitat significantly improved the predictions. This study provides evidence that weather conditions can yield robust short-term predictions of the regional daily mosquito abundance, particularly when accounting for local variation in habitat or mosquito control efforts, and may provide real-time indicators of WNV or other mosquito-borne disease risks during the summer.",Short-term Forecasting of Daily Abundance of West Nile Virus Vectors Culex pipiens-restuans (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes vexans Based on Weather Conditions in Southern Quebec (Canada),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+667941,"Snow regimes affect biogeochemistry of boreal ecosystems and are altered by climate change. The effects on plant communities, however, are largely unexplored despite their influence on relevant processes. Here, the impact of snow cover on understory community composition and below-ground production in a boreal Picea abies forest was investigated using a long-term (8-year) snow cover manipulation experiment consisting of the treatments: snow removal, increased insulation (styrofoam pellets), and control. The snow removal treatment caused longer (118 vs. 57 days) and deeper soil frost (mean minimum temperature -5.5 vs. -2.2 degrees C) at 10 cm soil depth in comparison to control. Understory species composition was strongly altered by the snow cover manipulations; vegetation cover declined by more than 50% in the snow removal treatment. In particular, the dominant dwarf shrub Vaccinium myrtillus (-82%) and the most abundant mosses Pleurozium schreberi (-74%) and Dicranum scoparium (-60%) declined strongly. The C:N ratio in V. myrtillus leaves and plant available N in the soil indicated no altered nitrogen nutrition. Fine-root biomass in summer, however, was negatively affected by the reduced snow cover (-50%). Observed effects are attributed to direct frost damage of roots and/or shoots. Besides the obvious relevance of winter processes on plant ecology and distribution, we propose that shifts in the vegetation caused by frost damage may be an important driver of the reported alterations in biogeochemistry in response to altered snow cover. Understory plant performance clearly needs to be considered in the biogeochemistry of boreal systems in the face of climate change.",Absence of snow cover reduces understory plant cover and alters plant community composition in boreal forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+99836,"About 75% of 46 glaciers measured using repeat airborne altimetry in Alaska and northwestern Canada have been losing mass at an increasing rate from the mid-1990s to the middle of the first decade of the twenty-first century, relative to an earlier period beginning in the 1950s-70s. The remaining glaciers have been either gaining mass during the more recent period or continuing to lose mass, but at a decreasing rate. Temperature and precipitation data at 67 climate stations were examined to explain these changes. Nearly all significant changes in winter (October-April) and summer (May-September) air temperatures were positive (2.0 degrees +/- 0.8 degrees and 1.0 degrees +/- 0.4 degrees C) between 1950 and 2002, and all seasonally averaged values of freezing level heights (FLH) increased during the same time period. A small increase in precipitation was observed, but these changes were significant at only 17% of the stations. Regional glacier changes, modeled using mass balance sensitivities and climate station temperature and precipitation changes, agreed with observations to within the limits of reported errors. Seasonal variations in accumulation resulted in large uncertainties in the recent period mass variations. In nearly all regions, increasing summer temperatures accounted for most of the glacier mass losses. FLH variations show that the maritime glacier systems are more sensitive to variations in the mean position of the winter FLH than interior regions, suggesting that strong winter warming has affected these regions in addition to the summer changes. These measurements augment the increasingly strong evidence of late twentieth-century climate change in northwestern North America.",Changes of Glaciers and Climate in Northwestern North America during the Late Twentieth Century,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+3323984,"During the development of the ocular photometer (OPM) since 1983, we have considered several physical and physiological factors that could potentially influence the measurement and its results. Attention has been given to respiratory, circulatory, and intraocular pressure provocations, and numerous publications document the influences or lack thereof. Most recently, the authors conducted a simple reproducibility study with only 1 observer and 1 subject. Measurement of the same 2 retinal sites during a 3-week period yielded no statistically significant differences, even under relatively extreme temperature conditions. Thus, changes in readings with the OPM may be considered due to variations within the eye, such as cataract. Thus, increase in lens density may be directly and correctly expressed by dual-site measurement of retinal brightness, resulting in the contrast transfer ratio.",Physiological influence on ocular photometry - A review,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1672806,"The relationship between the Economic growth and Energy Sector performance is unquestionable. Honewer it is not an easy task to evaluate the strength of this relationship. The majority of scientists are investigating the impact of certain Energy Sector's activities on the overall energy consumption, climate change or Economic growth. This article analyzes the influence of Energy Sector to GDP of Lithuania. The objective of the research is to show how the results of Lithuanian Energy Sector in 2005 - 2015 have been changed and to determine their impact on GDP. The concept of Energy Sector is presented first. Secondly, a methodology for analyzing the performance of the Economic growth and Energy Sector is described. Thirdly, the analysis of the activities of Energy Sector and its influence on GDP has been analyzed. The proposed model of the impact of the Energy Sector's activities on the growth of GDP in the article combines six main aspects of the research: participants in the Energy Sector; Energy balance indicators; Changes in energy product prices; The value added created by the Energy Sector; The main taxes paid by Energy Sector as part of the National budget revenue; The net profitability of the Energy Sector. This model is applicable for analyzing the aggregate performance indicators of Energy Sector and its impact on the growth of GDP. Hypothesis of this research - Lithuanian energy sector has a statistically significant influence on GDP. The findings showed that GDP and Energy Sector indicators, after a year of crisis, tended to grow. But the impact of these indicators on GDP is weak. However, particularly high correlation ratios between them may indirectly affect the change in GDP.",Assessment of Lithuanian Energy Sector Influence on GDP,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1462144,"We summarize recent statistical analyses that link agricultural yields to weather fluctuations. Similar to other sectors, high temperatures play a crucial role in predicting outcomes. Climate change is predicted to significantly increase high temperatures and thereby reduce yields. How good are such models at predicting future outcomes? We show that a statistical model estimated using historic US data on corn and soybean yields from 1950 to 2011 is very capable of predicting aggregate US yields for the years 2012-2015, where 2012 was much hotter than normal and is expected to become the new normal under climate change. We conclude by discussing recent studies on the implication of predicted yield declines with a special focus on adaptation and commodity prices.",Recent weather fluctuations and agricultural yields: implications for climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+219342,"The aim of this paper is to document the evolution of glaciers in the tropical Andes (between 10 degrees N and 16 degrees S) for the last millennium, based on moraines dated by lichenometry and radiocarbon, lake sediment records and historical documents. Viewed collectively, several glacial advances occurred synchronously. The first advance is dated around AD 1200-1350. The maximum glacial extent (MGE), defined as the furthest down-valley extent recorded synchronously by the majority of glaciers, occurred around 1630-1680 in Bolivia and Peru (the outer tropics) and around AD 1730 in Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela (the inner tropics). Subsequently. during the 18th and 19th centuries, glaciers retreated continuously with only minor synchronous readvances. In the outer tropics, minor glacial advances occurred around 1730,1760,1800,1850, and 1870. In the inner tropics, synchronous minor advances occurred around 1760,1820 and 1880. Between the MGE and the early 20th century, glaciers lost about 30% of their total length. The retreat was slow between the 17th and 18th centuries but then became more marked. Use of the accumulation area ratio (AAR) method or historical observations in the different cordilleras revealed an increase in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of about 300 m from the MGE onward. Palaeoclimatic hypotheses, based on glaciological models run in different countries, suggest a cool and humid period in the 16-18th centuries followed by a colder and drier period in the 19th century. The reduction of glaciers observed from the middle of the 19th century is due to increasingly warmer conditions than before. Here, quantitative estimates are proposed to explain the evolution of the glaciers. In Venezuela, results indicate for the period 1250-1820 that mean air temperatures were 3.2 +/- 1.4 degrees C cooler and precipitation was about 22% higher than at present. In Ecuador, temperatures of between 0.8 degrees and 1.1 degrees C lower than today, and between 25% and 35% higher accumulation than today, appear to have occurred in the 18th century, followed by a short drier but colder period at the beginning of the 19th century. In Bolivia, the MGE could be a consequence of a decrease in temperature of 1.1 to 1.2 degrees C, and a 20 to 30% increase in accumulation or an increase in cloudiness of about 1-2/10. We discuss not only external climatic forcing but also the coincidence between glacier expansion and a decrease in solar irradiance. Dating uncertainties, however, have made the role of volcanism in glacier fluctuations impossible to determine. Finally, we discuss the relationships between ENSO and glacier fluctuations in recent centuries, which do not match directly with current knowledge of modern teleconnections between tropical Pacific SSTs and variations in glacier mass balance. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Fluctuations of glaciers in the tropical Andes over the last millennium and palaeoclimatic implications: A review,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2340588,"When local resource users detect, understand, and respond to environmental change they can more effectively manage environmental resources. This article assesses these abilities among artisanal fishers in Roviana Lagoon, Solomon Islands. In a comparison of two villages, it documents local resource users' abilities to monitor long-term ecological change occurring to seagrass meadows near their communities, their understandings of the drivers of change, and their conceptualizations of seagrass ecology. Local observations of ecological change are compared with historical aerial photography and IKONOS satellite images that show 56 years of actual changes in seagrass meadows from 1947 to 2003. Results suggest that villagers detect long-term changes in the spatial cover of rapidly expanding seagrass meadows. However, for seagrass meadows that showed no long-term expansion or contraction in spatial cover over one-third of respondents incorrectly assumed changes had occurred. Examples from a community-based management initiative designed around indigenous ecological knowledge and customary sea tenure governance show how local observations of ecological change shape marine resource use and practices which, in turn, can increase the management adaptability of indigenous or hybrid governance systems.","Indigenous Knowledge and Long-term Ecological Change: Detection, Interpretation, and Responses to Changing Ecological Conditions in Pacific Island Communities",1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+569962,"Summer climate over Europe in recent decades has been characterized by a drying trend and by the occurrence of especially devastating drought and flood events, such as in the summers of 2002 and 2003. We compare these trends with results from regional climate model simulations of future climate over Europe under increased greenhouse gas concentrations (GHG). We find that the projected changes in mean summer precipitation and large-scale circulations are remarkably consistent with the observed changes in recent decades. Although we cannot directly attribute the observed changes to an anthropogenic GHG forcing, this result suggests that the observed drying trend over most of Europe might continue in the future. Our experiments additionally indicate substantial changes in the intensity and persistence of summer drought and flood. We identify the Central Mediterranean and Central/Western Europe to be especially vulnerable to increases in both summer drought and flood.",Consistency of recent European summer precipitation trends and extremes with future regional climate projections,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1528912,"The prevalence of gender harassment in male-dominated workforces has been well established, but little is known regarding the experiences of women in male-dominated majors within academia. The current study examines the experiences and gender-related biases of 146 male and female students in male-dominated (MD) and gender-equivalent (GE) majors. This study hypothesizes that men from MD majors, as opposed to GE majors, will exhibit more explicit and implicit bias regarding women in positions of power and authority, resulting in a higher prevalence of gender harassment towards women in MD majors. Results showed that there was no significant difference in self-reported explicit bias against women in positions of power and authority between men from MD and GE majors, but there was significantly more implicit bias among men from MD majors as opposed to GE majors. Additionally, women from MD majors experienced significantly more gender harassment than women from GE majors. Implications of these findings and suggestions to assist those working in education to combat these biases and instances of harassment are discussed.",No Girls Allowed: Women in Male-Dominated Majors Experience Increased Gender Harassment and Bias,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+652768,"The tropical glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are rapidly retreating, resulting in complex impacts on the hydrology of the upper Rio Santa watershed. The effect of this retreat on water resources is evaluated by analyzing historical and recent time series of daily discharge at nine measurement points. Using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test, the significance of trends in three hydrograph parameters was studied. Results are interpreted using synthetic time series generated from a hydrologic model that calculates hydrographs based on glacier retreat sequences. The results suggest that seven of the nine study watersheds have probably crossed a critical transition point, and now exhibit decreasing dry-season discharge. Our results suggest also that once the glaciers completely melt, annual discharge will be lower than present by 2-30% depending on the watershed. The retreat influence on discharge will be more pronounced during the dry season than at other periods of the year. At La Balsa, which measures discharge from the upper Rio Santa, the glacier retreat could lead to a decrease in dry-season average discharge of 30%.",Glacier recession and water resources in Peru's Cordillera Blanca,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+719948,"The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades, including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate. Paleo, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including: the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era, as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response (e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature) to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research.",Arctic Sea Ice and Eurasian Climate: A Review,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1489327,"Background: West Nile Virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that has become established in North America. Risk for human infection varies geographically in accordance with climate and population factors. Though often asymptomatic, human WNV infection can cause febrile illness or, rarely, neurologic disease. WNV has become a public health concern in Canada since its introduction in 2001. Methods: To identify predictors of human WNV incidence at the public health unit (PHU) level in Ontario, Canada, we combined data on environmental and population characteristics of PHUs with historical mosquito and human surveillance records from 2002 to 2013. We examined the associations between annual WNV incidence and monthly climate indices (e.g. minimum and maximum temperature, average precipitation), land cover (e.g. deciduous forest, water), population structure (e.g. age and sex composition) and the annual percentage of WNV-positive mosquito pools from 2002 to 2013. We then developed a generalized linear mixed model with a Poisson distribution adjusting for spatial autocorrelation and repeat measures. Further to this, to examine potential 'early season' predictors of WNV incidence in a given year, we developed a model based on winter and spring monthly climate indices. Results: Several climate indices, including mean minimum temperature (degrees C) in February (RR = 1.58, CI: [1.42, 1.75]), and the annual percentage of WNV-positive mosquito pools (RR = 1.07, CI: [1.04, 1.11]) were significantly associated with human WNV incidence at the PHU level. Higher winter minimum temperatures were also strongly associated with annual WNV incidence in the 'early season' model (e.g. February minimum temperature (RR = 1.91, CI: [1.73, 2.12]). Conclusions: Our study demonstrates that early season temperature and precipitation indices, in addition to the percentage of WNV-positive mosquito pools in a given area, may assist in predicting the likelihood of a more severe human WNV season in southern regions of Ontario, where WNV epidemics occur sporadically.",Factors associated with human West Nile virus infection in Ontario: a generalized linear mixed modelling approach,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1532268,"Trait differentiation among species occurs at different spatial scales within a region. How does the partitioning of functional diversity help to identify different community assembly mechanisms? Northeastern Spain. Functional diversity can be partitioned into within-community (alpha) and among-communities (beta) components, in analogy to Whittaker's classical alpha and beta species diversity concept. In light of ecological null models, we test and discuss two algorithms as a framework to measure alpha and beta functional diversity (the Rao quadratic entropy index and the variance of trait values). Species and trait (specific leaf area) data from pastures under different climatic conditions in NE Spain are used as a case study. The proposed indices show different mathematical properties but similarly account for the spatial components of functional diversity. For all vegetation types along the climatic gradient, the observed alpha functional diversity was lower than expected at random, an observation consistent with the hypothesis of trait convergence resulting from habitat filtering. On the other hand, our data exhibited a remarkably higher functional diversity within communities compared to among communities (alpha >beta). In contrast to the high species turnover, there was a limited functional diversity turnover among communities, and a large part of the trait divergence occurred among coexisting species. Partitioning functional diversity within and among communities revealed that both trait convergence and divergence occur in the formation of assemblages from the local species pool. A considerable trait convergence exists at the regional scale in spite of changes in species composition, suggesting the existence of ecological redundancy among communities.",Partitioning of functional diversity reveals the scale and extent of trait convergence and divergence,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+439573,"Knowledge of the fine root dynamics of different life forms in forest ecosystems is critical to understanding how the overall belowground carbon cycling is affected by climate change. However, our current knowledge regarding how endogenous or exogenous factors regulate the root dynamics of understory vegetation is limited. The aims of this study were to test the effects of soil moisture gradient and shading on the fine root production, phenology, and turnover rate of six shrub species from a subtropical forest. We selected a suite of study sites representing different habitats with gradients of soil moisture and solar radiation (shading or no shading). We assessed the fine root production phenology, the total fine root production, and the turnover among six understory shrub species in a subtropical climate, and examined the responses of the fine root dynamics to gradients in the soil moisture and solar radiation. The shrubs included three evergreen species, Loropetalum chinense, Vaccinium bracteatum, and Adinandra millettii, and three deciduous species, Serissa serissoides, Rubus corchorifolius, and Lespedeza davidii. Results We observed that variations in the annual fine root production and turnover among species were significant in the deciduous group but not in the evergreen group. Notably, V. bracteatum and S. serissoides presented the greatest responses in terms of root phenology to gradients in the soil moisture and shading: high-moisture habitat led to a decrease and shade led to an increase in fine root production during spring. Species with smaller fine roots of the 1(st)+2(nd)-order diameter presented more sensitive responses in terms of fine root phenology to a soil moisture gradient. Species with a lower fine root carbon- to nitrogen ratio exhibited more sensitive responses in terms of fine root annual production to shading. Soil moisture and shading did not change the annual fine root production as much as the turnover rate. The fine root dynamics of some understory shrubs varied significantly with soil moisture and solar radiation status and may be different from tree species. Our results emphasize the need to study the understory fine root dynamics in the achievement of a complete understanding of the overall belowground carbon cycling in a forest ecosystem, particularly ecosystems in which the understory fine root highly contributes to the belowground biomass.","Response of the fine root production, phenology, and turnover rate of six shrub species from a subtropical forest to a soil moisture gradient and shading",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+322163,"Recent environmental discourses and headlines on small island developing states (SIDS) have heralded the grave and impending threats of global warming and associated sea-level rise. These are undoubtedly significant challenges for SIDS, including atoll nations such as Kiribati. Nevertheless, securing small island state futures also requires a renewed commitment to addressing the obvious and immediate threats of urbanisation, pollution and sanitation. Looking at pressures of development on freshwater, this article argues that the future survival of small island states and their societies also greatly depends on managing the impacts of development. Approaches which can concurrently strengthen the resilience of communities and their ecosystems will result in mutual benefits for both sustainable development and climate change adaptation.",Kiribati: an environmental 'perfect storm',1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+293861,"The effects of increasing sea surface temperature (SST) and aerosol loading in a drought region in Southern China are studied using aerosol optical depth (AOD), low-level cloud cover (LCC), visibility, and precipitation from observed surface data; wind, temperature, specific humidity, and geopotential height from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis fields; and SST from the NOAA archive data. The results show a warming of the SST in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, and a strengthening of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) in the early summer during the last 40 yr, with the high pressure system extending farther westward over the continent in Southern China. Because the early summer average temperature contrast between the land and ocean decreased, the southwesterly monsoon from the ocean onto mainland China weakened and a surface horizontal wind divergence anomaly occurred over Southern China stabilizing the boundary layer. Thus, less moisture was transported to Southern China, causing a drying trend. Despite this, surface observations show that AOD and LCC have increased, while visibility has decreased. Precipitation has decreased in this region in the early summer, consistent with both the second aerosol indirect effect (reduction in precipitation efficiency caused by the more numerous and smaller cloud droplets) and dynamically induced changes from convective to more stratiform clouds. The second aerosol indirect effect and increases in SST and greenhouse gases (GHG) were simulated separately with the ECHAM4 general circulation model (GCM). The GCM results suggest that both effects contribute to the changes in LCC and precipitation in the drought region in Southern China. The flooding trend in Eastern China, however, is more likely caused by strengthened convective precipitation associated with increases in SST and GHG.",Contribution of changes in sea surface temperature and aerosol loading to the decreasing precipitation trend in Southern China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1388795,"Baikal has passed through different climatic epochs in its evolution. This is reflected in the structure of its ichthyofauna, which includes species of different faunistic complexes. Of significant interest is the comparison of ichthyofaunas in the northern rivers and especially between the Angara River and Lake Baikal, which have been connected for a long time. Studies of fish bone remains from the archeological sites with Mesolithic layers (6-8 Ky) at the upper parts of the Angara River (the Belaya River, Verholenskaya Mountain) has been carried out in most detail by Tzepkin (1976), based on large specimens of: Acipeser baeri, Hucho taimen, Esox lucius, Lota lota, and also Perca fluviatilis and Cyprinidae. At lower parts of the river (Pashino Settlement) Aciperser ruthenus and Stenodus leucichthys nelma were also studied. Coregonus lavaretus are observed in the upper reaches of the river, but Tzepkin's review (1995) does not include them, or Thymallus arcticus, among the ancient commercial ichthyofauna of the Angara River. In 1996, N.A. Savel'ev and E.S. Igumnova found a great deal of archeological material (Savel'ev et al., 2001) at Ust'-Haita site (high flood-lands on the right bank of the Haita River, a tributary of the Belaya River) near Mishelevka Settlement. Scales of one fish species predominated in fish remains in layers 5a and 6; in layers 7 and 8 skeleton fragments were chiefly of large fish heads. The material included fragments of Cyprinidae skeletons and perch, Perca fluviatilis only rarely. In total, ten fish species and a Cyprinidae group were identified, among which Thymallus arcticus, Coregonus lavaretus, Esox lucius, Lota Iota and Hucho taimen predominated. Good preservation of the material allowed the authors to define fish age and their catching terms. Quantitative ratios of scales to skeletons (more than 95%) at the archeological sites on the Belaya River. as well as in all archeological sites on territory of the former USSR, were demonstrated for the first time.","Species composition of fish from archeological site Ust'-Haita (Belaya River, tributary of Angara River)",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2065907,"Technological progress, energy use, energy intensity, and carbon mitigation are tightly intertwined concepts within the worldwide climate change debate. The state-of-the-art National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used to examine, for the United States: (a) the potential role of technological progress on energy supply, consumption, and prices in U.S. energy markets and their impact on carbon emissions; (b) how `success' on one side of the supply or demand equation may reduce the potential benefits of technological progress on the other side; and (c) the sensitivity of energy intensity in the U.S. to technological change and adoption. Some of the key findings of the analysis include: (a) technological progress alone (without significant and effective new policies) is insufficient to achieve reduction of carbon emissions at or near 1990 levels by 2010; (b) successful R&D programs that improve the availability and market acceptance of cost-efficient transportation technologies, coupled with successful oil and gas supply R&D programs, could have a significant impact on reducing U.S. dependence on imported oil; (c) the annual rate of decline of energy intensity (primary energy used per dollar of GDP) between 1996 and 2015 appears to be bounded by 1.25 percent when real energy prices are relatively stable or gradually rising, even when more advanced technologies are made available to the market.",Energy intensity and carbon emission responses to technological change: The U.S. outlook,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1629055,"Increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves have serious impacts on human health, agriculture, energy and infrastructure. Here we use three simple metrics including the number of heat wave days, the length of heat wave season, and the annual hottest day temperature to characterize future changes in heat wave severity in China, based on large ensemble simulations conducted with the Canadian Earth System Model Version 2 (CanESM2) in the context of emergency preparedness. A heat wave day is defined as a day with daily maximum temperature reaching heat alert level (35 degrees C). We find that global warming is associated with more severe heat waves including more heat wave days, longer heat wave season and higher hottest day temperature, and expansion of regions impacted by heat waves. While the increase in the magnitude of extremes in heat wave metrics with global warming level is close to linear, the increase in the frequency of extremes is much faster. For example, the historically hottest summer in 2013 in Eastern China, which occurs about one in 5 years in the 2013 climate, is projected to become more frequent than one in 2 years under 1.5 degrees C global warming and almost every year would be worse than 2013 under 2 degrees C warming. Additionally, the increase in the frequency of the extreme events is larger for rarer extremes. The frequencies for once in 5 year, once-in-10-year, and once-in-50-year events increase by 2.5, 3.5, and 5.5 times under 1.5 degrees C global warming, respectively. Plain Language Summary Heat waves have serious impacts on human health, agriculture, energy, and infrastructure. Though a few studies have investigated the future changes in heat waves in China, the heat waves defined in those studies are seldom of direct relevance to emergency preparedness. Here we study changes in heat wave days that are defined as daily maximum temperature above 35 degrees C, a threshold for issuing a heat alert according to China's national Standards. We examine three simple metrics including the annual number of heat wave days, the length of heat wave season, and the annual hottest day temperature based on large ensemble simulations of CanESM2. We find that global warming is associated with more severe heat waves including more heat wave days, longer heat wave season, higher hottest day temperature, and expansion of regions impacted by heat waves. The increase in the heat wave metrics with global warming level is close to linear, while the increase in the frequency of extremes in these metrics is much faster. For example, the once-in-5-year event in the current climate, with a magnitude of the historically hottest summer in 2013 in Eastern China, is projected to become more frequent, to become a once-in-2-year event under 1.5 degrees C global warming and every year event under 2 degrees C global warming.",Substantial Increase in Heat Wave Risks in China in a Future Warmer World,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3943937,"The genus Juniperus consists of 54 species distributed throughout the northern hemisphere and one African species extending its range deep into the southern hemisphere. Members of this genus range from prostrate shrubs to tall forest trees and produce many products of value to human societies. Many junipers are xerophytes and grow in arid and semi-arid climates unsuitable for establishment and growth of other trees. Case histories from juniper forests in Kenya, Krygyzstan, Morocco, Pakistan and the USA illustrate problems facing the world's juniper forests. Most juniper forests are fragile ecosystems. They are open grown; trees often have poor form; natural regeneration is sparse; and they are affected by damaging agents which are often not well understood. Moreover, they have endured long periods of heavy human use, primarily for grazing of livestock and gathering. Increasing human populations have put increased pressure on these ecosystems resulting in degradation and loss of forest area at accelerating rates. Several potential solutions to effective management and protection of juniper forests are identified. Prohibiting the cutting of junipers is difficult to enforce and is effective only if alternative sources exist. The involvement of local people who rely on the juniper forests is essential in the development of effective management and protection tactics. The establishment of plantations of faster growing trees near villages could provide alternative sources of wood products, reducing pressures on juniper forests. Periodic assessments are needed to monitor the status and health of juniper forests and a comprehensive programme of research and technology transfer is needed to generate and implement new knowledge. Finally, an international network of people concerned with the management and protection of juniper forests is needed to facilitate the exchange of information on the status, management and protection of these fragile ecosystems. © 2002 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.",Juniper forests—a special challenge for sustainable forestry,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+595753,"Research into the climate change and migration nexus has often focussed solely on how people move in response to the impacts of variability and change in climate. This notion often ignores the nature of migration as a tried and tested livelihood choice amid a variety of socio-economic and environmental opportunities and limitations. This paper closely looks at the behavioural aspects of migration decision-making in Bangladesh in the context of changes in its economy, and, increasingly, exposure to the impacts of climate variability and change. We find that villagers in areas particularly affected by increasing climatic stresses and shocks are diversifying their traditional livelihood strategies by migrating. Environmental factors, including climatic stresses and shocks, often make such shifts even more necessary. Although the migrants' primary motivation is better income, in effect, migration becomes an effective form of adaptation. Based on a qualitative study in three geographically distinct places of Bangladesh, we propose that migration is a socially acceptable behaviour that occurs in the context of perceived environmental change and climate variability. Migration decisions are mediated by a set of 'behavioural factors' that assesses the efficacy of different responses to opportunities and challenges, their socio-cultural acceptance and the ability to respond successfully. This understanding has policy relevance for climate change adaptation, in terms of both how migrants are perceived and how their movements are planned for.",Climate-related migration in rural Bangladesh: a behavioural model,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+601059,"The Arctic regions are undergoing rapid warming, at rates that are significantly faster than the global average and its hydrological system is responding to this change. Rivers may be seen as integrators of changes in the hydrological cycle. Changes in the freshwater fluxes have immediate impact on Arctic Ocean dynamics, and are teleconnected to the global ocean-atmosphere. Here, the most recent observational records are analyzed for 19 large rivers encompassing the entire Arctic region over the period 1977 to 2007. Trends in total annual water discharge, melt month and peak month discharge are calculated for individual systems based on records with monthly time resolution. We found consistent increase in annual discharge over the entire region (+9.8%) over the last 30 years. Combined change in water outflux is significantly higher than previous reconstructions for the Canadian Arctic (+2% over 1964-2000) and Eurasia (+7% over 1936-1999). Individual river systems show strong acceleration of change. Melt month discharge increases considerably (+66%), whereas peak month discharge is reduced (-6.8%). Our records mostly span the post-dam establishment period, when dam management is considered relatively stable. Consequently we attribute the considerable change in the melt month to a shift in snowmelt in the drainage basin.","SHIFTING DISCHARGE PEAKS IN ARCTIC RIVERS, 1977-2007",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+678222,"Aim We examined the effects of drought in the summer of 1995 and the subsequent year on contrasting species of plants, moths, butterflies and ground beetles. We tested whether population increases were associated with: (a) species of warm environments (b) species of dry environments (c) species with rapid reproduction (d) species with high rates of dispersal. Location The study was conducted at Environmental Change Network (ECN) sites throughout Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Methods Climate monitoring, recording of plant species in permanent plots, transect waking for butterflies, light trapping for moths and pitfall trapping for carabid beetles were used. Results There was an overall increase in the number of species recorded in permanent vegetation plots between 1994 and 1996, principally among the annual and biennial vascular plants, probably as a result of gap colonization in grasslands. Most butterfly and moth species increased between 1994 and 1995. Among the butterflies, a southern distribution and high mobility were associated with species tending to increase throughout the period 1994-96, whereas declining species tended to have a northern distribution. A similar number of carabid beetle species increased as decreased in the period 1994-96; decreasing species tended to be associated with lower temperatures and wetter soils. Conclusions Current climate change scenarios indicate that the incidence of droughts in the United Kingdom will increase. A series of dry, hot summers could lead to a rapid change in the population of some species although others, including many plants, may be more resilient. This may lead to complex changes in ecosystems and needs to be considered in planning conservation strategies.",Effects of drought on contrasting insect and plant species in the UK in the mid-1990s,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+40166,"Considering impacts of predicted increases in sea-level, storms, and alterations in precipitation patterns on geomorphological and associated ecological processes, woody vegetation dynamics may serve as sentinels to climate change on barrier islands. We examined island-scale conversion of land (i.e. sand to grassland to woody cover) while relating the importance of climate variables on rate of woody expansion. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) was used to evaluate potential distribution of woody species based on distance to shoreline and elevation. Using Landsat TM imagery, we monitored changes in island size and vegetation classes (1984-2010). These comparisons revealed conversion of grassland to woody cover (285% increase) was closely linked to air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric [CO2]. LiDAR data indicated that woody species have not expanded completely into the potential range. Our results suggest that woody species are responsive to climate change, thus serving as sentinels on Virginia barrier islands.",Woody vegetative cover dynamics in response to recent climate change on an Atlantic coast barrier island: a remote sensing approach,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1292384,"The impact of transient changes in climate and vegetation on the hydrology of small Arctic headwater basins has not been investigated before, particularly in the tundra-taiga transition region. This study uses weather and land cover observations and a hydrological model suitable for cold regions to investigate historical changes in modelled hydrological processes driving the streamflow response of a small Arctic basin at the treeline. The physical processes found in this environment and explicit changes in vegetation extent and density were simulated and validated against observations of streamflow discharge, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness. Mean air temperature and all-wave irradiance have increased by 3.7 degrees C and 8.4 W m(-2), respectively, while precipitation has decreased 48 mm (10 %) since 1960. Two modelling scenarios were created to separate the effects of changing climate and vegetation on hydrological processes. Results show that over 1960-2016 most hydrological changes were driven by climate changes, such as decreasing snowfall, evapotranspiration, deepening active layer thickness, earlier snow cover depletion and diminishing annual sublimation and soil moisture. However, changing vegetation has a significant impact on decreasing blowing snow redistribution and sublimation, counteracting the impact of decreasing precipitation on streamflow, demonstrating the importance of including transient changes in vegetation in long-term hydrological studies. Streamflow dropped by 38 mm as a response to the 48 mm decrease in precipitation, suggesting a small degree of hydrological resiliency. These results represent the first detailed estimate of hydrological changes occurring in small Arctic basins, and can be used as a reference to inform other studies of Arctic climate change impacts.",Recent changes to the hydrological cycle of an Arctic basin at the tundra-taiga transition,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2363157,"In the last three decades, over 4.1 million hectares have burned in Arizona and New Mexico and the largest fires in documented history have occurred in the past two decades. Changes in burn severity over time, however, have not been well documented in forest and woodland ecosystems in the southwestern US. Using remotely sensed burn severity data from 1621 fires ( > 404 ha), we assessed trends from 1984 to 2015 in Arizona and New Mexico in (1) number of fires and total area burned in all vegetation types; (2) area burned, area of high-severity, and percent of high-severity fire in all forest and woodland areas; and (3) area burned, area of high-severity, and percent of high-severity in seven different grouped forest and woodland vegetation types (Ecological Response Unit [ERU] Fire Regime Types). Number of fires and area burned increased across the Southwest regardless of vegetation type. The significant increasing trends held for area burned, area of high-severity, and percent of high-severity fire in all forest and woodland ecosystems. Area burned and area burned severely increased in all seven ERU Fire Regime Types while percent of high-severity fire increased in two ERUs: Mixed Conifer Frequent Fire and Mixed Conifer with Aspen/Spruce Fir. Managers must face the implications of increasing, uncharacteristic high-severity fire in many ecosystems as climate change and human pressures continue to affect fire regimes.",Increasing trends in high-severity fire in the southwestern USA from 1984 to 2015,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2373640,"As climate change continues, sea turtle nests will be increasingly exposed to elevated incubation temperatures. Higher incubation temperatures influence many aspects of sea turtle development including sex determination and incubation length, but also survival. If temperatures in the nest increase above a thermal tolerance limit, then embryonic mortality may increase. The purpose of this research was to determine if there are differences in vulnerability to elevated temperatures across different stages of embryonic development and between loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green (Chelonia mydas) sea turtles. Temperature dataloggers recorded nest temperature in the approximate center of loggerhead and green nests laid on the Boca Raton, Florida beach during the 2016 and 2017 nesting seasons. All unhatched eggs were collected from these nests following hatchling emergence. The eggs were dissected and the developmental stage at embryonic death was determined. The point of embryonic death was compared to the nest temperatures during that stage of the incubation period to determine if death corresponded to specific periods of elevated temperatures. Elevated nest temperatures increased embryonic mortality, but no developmental stage had higher mortality rates when exposed to any specific elevated temperatures compared to embryos that had not been exposed to that temperature. The most significant relationship was between mortality and the percent of time embryos were exposed to temperatures above 34 degrees C. This resulted in greater mortality of more developed embryos, as those embryos had a longer cumulative exposure to elevated temperatures. Loggerhead turtles exhibited higher rates of mortality compared to green turtles for almost all temperature exposure periods above 34 degrees C. Although few green nests reached 34 degrees C, green sea turtle embryos in south Florida may also have a higher thermal tolerance than loggerheads. Due to the increased embryonic mortality, and therefore, decreased hatching success, future management strategies may need to protect sea turtle nests from extended periods at elevated temperatures.",Embryonic mortality in green (Chelonia mydas) and loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle nests increases with cumulative exposure to elevated temperatures,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3321819,"This paper investigates the impact of temperature on economic activity in India, using state-level data from 1980-2015. We estimate that a C increase in contemporaneous temperature (relative to our sample mean) reduces the economic growth rate that year by 2.5 percentage points. The adverse impact of higher temperatures is more severe in poorer states and in the primary sector. Our analysis of lagged temperatures suggests that our effects are driven by the contemporaneous effect of temperature on output; we do not find evidence of a permanent impact of contemporaneous temperatures on future growth rates.",Temperature and economic activity: evidence from India,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+656326,"Several previous studies have detected positive trends in flood flows in German rivers, among others, at Rhine gauges over the past six decades. The presence and detectability of the climate change signal in flood records has been controversially discussed, particularly against the background of massive river training measures in the Rhine. In the past the Rhine catchment has been heavily trained, including the construction of the Rhine weir cascade, flood protection dikes and detention basins. The present study investigates the role of river training on changes in annual maximum daily flows at Rhine gauges starting from Maxau down to Lobith. In particular, the effect of the Rhine weir cascade and of a series of detention basins was investigated. By homogenising the original flood flow records in the period from 1952 till 2009, the annual maximum series were computed that would have been recorded had river training measures not been in place. Using multiple trend analysis, relative changes in the homogenised time series were found to be from a few percentage points to more than 10 percentage points smaller compared to the original records. This effect is attributable to the river training measures, and primarily to the construction of the Rhine weir cascade. The increase in Rhine flood discharges during this period was partly caused by an unfavourable superposition of the Rhine and Neckar flood waves. This superposition resulted from an acceleration of the Rhine waves due to the construction of the weir cascade and associated channelisation and dike heightening. However, at the same time, tributary flows across the entire Upper and Lower Rhine, which enhance annual maximum Rhine peaks, showed strong positive trends. This suggests the dominance of another driver or drivers which acted alongside river training.",Flood trends along the Rhine: the role of river training,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+425229,"Time series of Adult recruitment for natural runs of coho salmon from the Oregon coastal region (1970-94) and marine survival of hatchery-reared coho salmon from California to Washington (1960-94) are significantly correlated with a suite of meteorological and oceanographic variables related to the biological productivity of the local coastal region. These variables include strong upwelling, cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong wind mixing, a deep and weakly stratified mixed layer, and tow coastal sea level, indicating strong transport of the California Current. Principal component analysis indicates that these variables work in concert to define the dominant modes of physical variability, which appear to regulate nutrient availability and biological productivity. Multiple regression analysis suggests that coho marine survival is significantly and independently related to the dominant modes acting over this region in the periods when the coho first enter the ocean and during the overwintering/spring period prior to their spawning migration. Linear relationships provided good fits to the data and were robust, capable of predicting randomly removed portions of the data set.",Climate variability and marine survival of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Oregon production area,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2307106,"Simple Summary It is well known that the thermal environment has an integral role in maintaining the health and productivity of cattle. Although cold stress has been identified to negatively influence cattle comfort and productivity, the predominant focus herein has been describing the influence of heat stress on bovines. The impact of heat stress is particularly important due to the changing global environment. Global warming is likely to occur, however, the nature and magnitude of environmental changes, both climatic and non-climatic, are difficult to elucidate. Therefore a predominant focus on the impact of hot environments on cattle is warranted. This review provides an overview of the dynamic relationship that exists between the thermal environment and bovines. Abstract Heat stress and cold stress have a negative influence on cattle welfare and productivity. There have been some studies investigating the influence of cold stress on cattle, however the emphasis within this review is the influence of heat stress on cattle. The impact of hot weather on cattle is of increasing importance due to the changing global environment. Heat stress is a worldwide phenomenon that is associated with reduced animal productivity and welfare, particularly during the summer months. Animal responses to their thermal environment are extremely varied, however, it is clear that the thermal environment influences the health, productivity, and welfare of cattle. Whilst knowledge continues to be developed, managing livestock to reduce the negative impact of hot climatic conditions remains somewhat challenging. This review provides an overview of the impact of heat stress on production and reproduction in bovines.",The Impact of Heat Load on Cattle,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+68224,"Plant phenology is strongly controlled by climate and has consequently become one of the most reliable bioindicators of ongoing climate change. We used a dataset of more than 200 000 records for six phenological events of 29 perennial plant species monitored from 1943 to 2003 for a comprehensive assessment of plant phenological responses to climate change in the Mediterranean region. Temperature, precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were studied together during a complete annual cycle before phenological events to determine their relative importance and potential seasonal carry-over effects. Warm and dry springs under a positive phase of NAO advance flowering, leaf unfolding and fruiting dates and lengthen the growing season. Spatial variability of dates (range among sites) was also reduced during warm and dry years, especially for spring events. Climate during previous weeks to phenophases occurrence had the greatest impact on plants, although all events were also affected by climate conditions several months before. Immediate along with delayed climate effects suggest dual triggers in plant phenology. Climatic models accounted for more than 80% of variability in flowering and leaf unfolding dates, and in length of the growing season, but for lower proportions in fruiting and leaf falling. Most part of year-to-year changes in dates was accounted for temperature, while precipitation and NAO accounted for < 10% of dates' variability. In the case of flowering, insect-pollinated species were better modelled by climate than wind-pollinated species. Differences in temporal responses of plant phenology to recent climate change are due to differences in the sensitivity to climate among events and species. Spring events are changing more than autumn events as they are more sensitive to climate and are also undergoing the greatest alterations of climate relative to other seasons. In conclusion, climate change has shifted plant phenology in the Mediterranean region.",Impact of climate change on plant phenology in Mediterranean ecosystems,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1449583,"The present work focuses on cold alpine soils of the Altai Mountains (Siberia, Russia). Permafrost is widespread and often occurs at a depth of about 100 cm. The area is characterised by extremely cold winters and cool summers: the aim was consequently to find out whether weathering could be more intense on thermally less unfavoured conditions or whether the abundance of water could be a more important factor. We investigated 10 soils in a very small area close to a local glacier tongue. Five of the investigated soils were south-facing and the other five north-facing. The soils have the same parent material (mica-rich till), altitude, topography and soil age. The vegetation is alpine grassland that is partially intersected with some juniper and mosses. Soil chemical properties such as organic C, N, soil organic matter quality (using DRIFT), pH value, (oxy)hydroxides, total elemental contents (XRF) and soil micromorphology and mineralogy (using diagnostic treatments and XRD) were determined. The age constraint of the site was given by geomorphic studies together with C-14 dating of a nearby peat bog and the stable organic matter fraction of the soils. The soils have a Holocene age. The results showed astonishingly clearly-similarly to the European Alps-that the north-facing soils have a higher weathering state. This is expressed by lower pH values, higher oxalate and dithionite extractable Fe, Al, Mn and Si contents, higher C and N concentrations and stocks when compared to the south-facing sites. No statistically significant differences with respect to weathering indexes could be detected. The geochemical evolution of the soils seems to be enhanced at north-facing sites, even though very severe climatic conditions prevail. Furthermore, biodegradation seems to be less pronounced on north-facing compared to south-facing sites as poorly degraded organic matter is accumulated. This gives rise to more organic ligands that promote metal binding and their subsequent eluviation along the soil profile. We consequently must assume that weathering is not limited by low temperatures in the active layer but is rather controlled by soil moisture that seems to be higher during the warmer period in the north-facing soils.",Microclimate affects soil chemical and mineralogical properties of cold alpine soils of the Altai Mountains (Russia),1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+260472,"Drought is one of the most important weather-induced phenomena which may have severe impacts on different areas such as agriculture, economy, energy production, and society. From a meteorological point of view, drought can be induced and/or reinforced by lack of precipitation, hot temperatures and enhanced evapotranspiration. Starting from a multi-indicator approach, we present European-wide meteorological drought climatologies and trends for the period 1950-2012. As input data, we used precipitation and temperature data from the E-OBS (spatial resolution: 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees) gridded dataset of the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D). Precipitation, temperature, and the derived potential evapotranspiration (PET) have been used to compute three drought indicators: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). SPI, SPEI, and RDI, calculated for 12-month accumulation period, have been rationally merged into a combined indicator and this quantity has been used to obtain drought frequency, duration, and severity for the entire Europe. We identified the following drought hotspots: Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, and Russia in 1951-1970, no particular hotspot in 1971-1990, the Mediterranean region and the Baltic Republics in 1991-2010. A linear trend analysis shows that drought variables increased in the period 1950-2012 in South-Western Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean and Carpathian regions, with precipitation decrease and PET increase as drivers. Drought variables show a decrease in Scandinavia, Belarus, Ukraine and Russia: precipitation increase is the main driver. In Central Europe and the Balkans, drought variables show a moderate increase, for the significant PET increase outbalances a not significant precipitation increase. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",European drought climatologies and trends based on a multi-indicator approach,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1819756,"We have reviewed the phytoplankton composition and succession in the East African Great Lakes, their response to environmental changes, and the communities of microorganisms of the microbial food web. Recent studies in some great lakes, as well as progress in understanding phytoplankton succession and response to environmental factors, enable us to update knowledge of the phytoplankton ecology of these lakes. In particular, we present information indicating that phytoplankton composition in lakes Tanganyika and Kivu may reflect recent changes as a result of global warming or species introduction. We also stress the importance of microbes (at the base of the food web) in these systems and suggest that the microbial food web, which has been mostly overlooked until recently, may play a very large role in determining productivity and nutrient cycling in these large lakes.",Microorganisms of the East African Great Lakes and their response to environmental changes,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+198128,"Under global warming, storm events tend to intensify, particularly in monsoon-affected regions. As an important agricultural area in China, the purple soil region in the Sichuan Basin, where it has a prevailing monsoon climate, is threatened by serious soil erosion. Tillage operations alter runoff and soil erosion processes on croplands by changing the physical properties of the soil surface. To clarify the relationship between tillage and soil erosion in the purple soil region, three different tillage practices in this region were investigated at the plot scale over 4 years: bare land with minimum tillage (BL), conventional tillage (CT) and seasonal no-tillage ridges (SNTR) which was initially designed to prevent soil erosion by contoured ridges and no-tillage techniques. The results showed that although there were no significant differences in the surface runoff and soil erosion among the three practices, BL caused relatively high surface runoff and soil erosion, followed by CT and SNTR. Classification and comparison of the rainfall events based on cluster analysis (CA) verified that the surface runoff was not significantly different between most intensive event and long intensive events but was significantly different between most intensive and short and medium-duration events. Only the rainfall events with the highest rainfall intensity could trigger serious soil erosion, up to moo kg ha(-1) in the region. Further detailed investigations on the effects of tillage operations on the soil erosion in a subtropical region with a monsoon climate are needed to provide a basis for modeling catchments and designing better management practices.","Rainfall and Tillage Impacts on Soil Erosion of Sloping Cropland with Subtropical Monsoon Climate - A Case Study in Hilly Purple Soil area, China",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+636017,"Long-distance migratory shorebirds require wetland stopover sites where they can forage and deposit sufficient fat to complete their migration and, in the spring, reproduce. Conservation biologists are concerned that continental-scale reductions in wetland availability and quality due to human disturbance, climate change, and natural drought events are negatively impacting these species by eliminating critical stopovers along migratory flyways. We describe an individual-based migration model driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data assimilation models, and biological field data to examine the impact of changing environmental conditions on migration routes, temporal patterns, and fitness. We used an evolutionary programming approach to evaluate birds' adaptive responses to variation in refueling potential in the landscape. Birds' shifted their migratory routes and extended their stopovers as the mean quality of the landscape decreased and spatial variation in refueling potential increased. We discuss possible applications of our model for understanding inter-annual climate variation, climate change, and wetland loss. © 2008 IEEE.",Simulating the effects of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory bird species,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+76280,"Whereas the consequences of global warming at population or community levels are well documented, studies at the cellular level are still scarce. The study of the physiological or metabolic effects of such small increases in temperature (between +2 degrees C and +6 degrees C) is difficult because they are below the amplitude of the daily or seasonal thermal variations occurring in most environments. In contrast, subterranean biotopes are highly thermally buffered (+/- 1 degrees C within a year), and underground water organisms could thus be particularly well suited to characterise cellular responses of global warming. To this purpose, we studied genes encoding chaperone proteins of the HSP70 family in amphipod crustaceans belonging to the ubiquitous subterranean genus Niphargus. An HSP70 sequence was identified in eight populations of two complexes of species of the Niphargus genus (Niphargus rhenorhodanensis and Niphargus virei complexes). Expression profiles were determined for one of these by reverse transcription and quantitative polymerase chain reaction, confirming the inducible nature of this gene. An increase in temperature of 2 degrees C seemed to be without effect on N. rhenorhodanensis physiology, whereas a heat shock of +6 degrees C represented an important thermal stress for these individuals. Thus, this study shows that although Niphargus individuals do not undergo any daily or seasonal thermal variations in underground water, they display an inducible HSP70 heat shock response. This controlled laboratory-based physiological experiment constitutes a first step towards field investigations of the cellular consequences of global warming on subterranean organisms.",First cellular approach of the effects of global warming on groundwater organisms: a study of the HSP70 gene expression,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1848664,"Climate change poses many risks for nature-based recreation and tourism, especially in protected areas and parks. This paper discusses visitor risk perceptions of climate change and its impacts, and their potential consequences for nature-based tourism destinations such as national parks. An online survey was used to assess visitor risk perception on the likelihood of climate change impacts to affect Mount Desert Island (MDI)-Acadia National Park in the next 10 years, and potential risks those impacts could pose to visitors. Environmental impacts such as extreme weather and sea level rise were perceived by respondents as the most likely effects of climate change to MDI in the next 10 years. Conversely, respondents' risk perceptions of climate change impacts as threats to visitors showed an increased importance of other environmental impacts such as increased presence of mosquitoes and ticks; with extreme events as the key risk to visitors. However, perceptions that pose potential personal risk to visitors gained in significance when considering their influence on travel behavior, including impacts such as disease outbreak and water scarcity. Factor analyses with varimax rotation identified four climate change impact factors associated with perceived vulnerability, perceptions of risk, and influence on future travel to MDI; the four factors generated were: weather patterns, impacts on wildlife, access and health, and physiological and safety needs. Results from cluster analysis yielded three segments: Skeptics, Believers, and Cautious. Segments were significantly different in how they perceived the vulnerability of the area to the effects of climate change, perceived risks, and changes that may influence travel behavior. MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS The present study has important implications for nature-based tourism management, particularly as associated to protected areas, such as national parks. Consequently, protected area managers may discuss whether the effects of climate change and visitor perceptions could be included in the overall management and monitoring efforts. Climate change most likely will influence travel behavior to national parks and other protected area categories, impact how visitors perceive potential personal risks and threats associated with their travel, and will impact the natural environment and infrastructure tourism relies on. Furthermore, diverse perceptions hold by travel segments, different visitor perceptions based on demographics (age, gender, and income), and seasonal influence in travel should be considered in the management of tourism activities within protected areas. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Nature-based tourism and climate change risk: Visitors' perceptions in mount desert island, Maine",1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+270613,"In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003-2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1) vegetation changes following a changing fire regime, and (2) changes in snow cover duration. We used a spatially explicit dynamic vegetation model (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) to simulate changes in successional dynamics associated with fire under the future climate scenarios, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to simulate changes in snow cover. Changes in summer heating due to the changes in the forest stand age distributions under future fire regimes showed a slight cooling effect due to increases in summer albedo (mean across climates of -0.9 W m(-2) decade(-1)). Over this same time period, decreases in snow cover (mean reduction in the snow season of 4.5 d decade(-1)) caused a reduction in albedo, and a heating effect (mean across climates of 4.3 W m(-2) decade(-1)). Adding both the summer negative change in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire regimes to the positive changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in the length of the snow season resulted in a 3.4 W m(-2) decade(-1) increase in atmospheric heating. These findings highlight the importance of gaining a better understanding of the influences of changes in surface albedo on atmospheric heating due to both changes in the fire regime and changes in snow cover duration.","Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003-2100",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1859128,"The significance of the seagrass ecosystem as global carbon sinks has been well studied worldwide; however, studies in India are sparse. Most research in India focuses on the distribution and ecology of seagrass and biogeochemistry has often been less studied. This paper describes the potential carbon sequestration, particularly carbon burial and uptake by seagrass ecosystems of India. The results reported the higher dissolved carbon uptake rates by seagrass ecosystem followed by high net ecosystem productivity. Below ground biomass dominated in the seagrass ecosystem which is a storehouse of buried carbon. High storage capacity of seagrass ecosystem is described through a case study of Chilika lagoon where the carbon pool in the biomass and sediments were observed to range from 2.3 to 2.5 Gg C and 4.5 to 5.7 Gg C respectively. The study emphasized on the need of focused research, particularly, on the role of carbon in seagrass ecosystems in India.",Seagrass Ecosystem and Climate Change: An Indian Perspective,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+416852,"Utilising newly available instrumentation, the carbon balance in two small tropical catchments was measured during two discharge events at high temporal resolution. Catchments share similar climatic conditions, but differ in land use with one draining a pristine rainforest catchment, the other a fully cleared and cultivated catchment. The necessity of high resolution sampling in small catchments was illustrated in each catchment, where significant chemical changes occurred in the space of a few hours or less. Dissolved and particulate carbon transport dominated carbon export from the rainforest catchment during high flow, but was surpassed by degassing of CO2 less than 4h after the discharge peak. In contrast, particulate organic carbon dominated export from the cleared catchment, in all flow conditions with CO2 evasion accounting for 5-23% of total carbon flux. Stable isotopes of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the ephemeral rainforest catchment decreased quickly from similar to 1.5 parts per thousand to similar to-16 parts per thousand in 5h from the flood beginning. A two-point mixing model revealed that in the initial pulse, over 90% of the DIC was of rainwater origin, decreasing to below 30% in low flow. In the cultivated catchment, C-13(DIC) values varied significantly less (-11.0 to -12.2 parts per thousand) but revealed a complex interaction between surface runoff and groundwater sources, with groundwater DIC becoming proportionally more important in high flow, due to activation of macropores downstream. This work adds to an increasing body of work that recognises the importance of rapid, short-lived hydrological events in low-order catchments to global carbon dynamics. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Contrasting carbon export dynamics of human impacted and pristine tropical catchments in response to a short-lived discharge event,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1547931,"Natural wetlands are permanently or seasonally inundated with water, and the growth of vegetation in these wetlands is assumed to be sensitive to a warming climate. China's natural wetlands are mostly found in cold, high-latitude (>40 degrees N in NE China) and high-altitude (>4,000 m in average on the Tibetan Plateau (TP)) areas. Rapid warming of regional climate (>0.30 degrees C decade(-1) since the 1960s) is thought to have promoted the growth of vegetation in these cold wetlands. However, using three independent greenness data sets, we show that the wetlands in the TP and NE China experienced significant browning between 1999 and 2007, rather than a straightforward increase in greening. The interannual variation in wetland greenness on the TP was regulated by both the temperature and the amount of solar radiation. In NE China, however, the effect of temperature and solar radiation was unable to explain the temporal variation in greenness and the changes were mostly regulated by the soil moisture content and drought. There was a decrease in the dependence of vegetation growth on temperature in NE China, but no significant change on the TP, which has experienced a warmer and wetter climate in recent decades. The effect of drought and the soil moisture content on the interannual variation in the greenness of wetlands consistently increased across the TP and NE China. Our results highlight the hydrological regulation of the growth of vegetation in a warmer climate, even in wetland environments.",Strengthening Hydrological Regulation of China's Wetland Greenness Under a Warmer Climate,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+722349,"Fire size and fire severity are two crucial parameters for describing fire regimes that reflect spatial heterogeneities of fire spread behavior and its interaction with the environment. Determining how environmental controls regulate these two metrics of the fire regime is of critical importance for predicting response of fire to climate change and designing strategic fire management plans. Here, we evaluated influences and relative contributions of fire weather, topography, and vegetation on fire size and fire severity in a Chinese boreal forest ecosystem. We also compared how relative contributions vary along a continuous gradient of spatial scales using a moving-window resampling approach. Results showed fire weather was the dominant driving factor for fire size, while vegetation and topography exerted stronger influences on fire severity. Such relative influences on fire size and fire severity possessed different scale dependence. For fire size, small burns (<130 ha) were mainly constrained by vegetation as it accounted for nearly 43% relative importance, but larger burns (>200 ha) were more strongly influenced by extreme fire weather conditions, which accounted for more than 50% relative importance. In contrast, the relative importance of fire weather on fire severity was always less than 20% across the entire range of spatial scales, while relative contributions of vegetation were relatively stable and always greater than 45%. Our study suggests that fuel treatments may have little effect on reducing fire size in boreal forests, but may function to mitigate the severity of future fires. Vegetation type and terrain conditions are important factors to consider for improving efficiency of fuel management. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Quantifying influences and relative importance of fire weather, topography, and vegetation on fire size and fire severity in a Chinese boreal forest landscape",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+388193,"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other international agencies have concluded that global crop production is at risk due to climate change, population growth, and changing food preferences. Society expects that the agricultural sciences will innovate solutions to these problems and provide food security for the foreseeable future. My thesis is that an integrated research plan merging agronomic and genetic approaches has the greatest probability of success. I present a template for a research plan based on the lessons we have learned from the Green Revolution and from the development of genetically engineered crops that may guide us to meet this expectation. The plan starts with a vision of how the crop management system could change, and I give a few examples of innovations that are very much in their infancy but have significant potential. The opportunities need to be conceptualized on a regional basis for each crop to provide a target for change. The plan gives an overview of how the tools of plant biotechnology can be used to create the genetic diversity needed to implement the envisioned changes in the crop management system, using the development of drought tolerance in maize (Zea mays L.) as an example that has led recently to the commercial release of new hybrids in the USA. The plan requires an interdisciplinary approach that integrates and coordinates research on plant biotechnology, genetics, physiology, breeding, agronomy, and cropping systems to be successful.",Planning for food security in a changing climate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2363191,"No synthesized global gridded runoff product, derived from multiple sources, is available, despite such a product being useful for meeting the needs of many global water initiatives. We apply an optimal weighting approach to merge runoff estimates from hydrological models constrained with observational streamflow records. The weighting method is based on the ability of the models to match observed streamflow data while accounting for error co-variance between the participating products. To address the lack of observed streamflow for many regions, a dissimilarity method was applied to transfer the weights of the participating products to the ungauged basins from the closest gauged basins using dissimilarity between basins in physiographic and climatic characteristics as a proxy for distance. We perform out-of-sample tests to examine the success of the dissimilarity approach, and we confirm that the weighted product performs better than its 11 constituent products in a range of metrics. Our resulting synthesized global gridded runoff product is available at monthly timescales, and includes time-variant uncertainty, for the period 1980-2012 on a 0.5 degrees grid. The synthesized global gridded runoff product broadly agrees with published runoff estimates at many river basins, and represents the seasonal runoff cycle for most of the globe well. The new product, called Linear Optimal Runoff Aggregate (LORA), is a valuable synthesis of existing runoff products and will be freely available for download on https://geonetwork.nci.org.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/f9617_9854_8096_5291 (last access: 31 January 2019).",Linear Optimal Runoff Aggregate (LORA): a global gridded synthesis runoff product,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2307731,"The influence of anthropogenic stress on soil ecosystems is difficult to assess because their ""normal"" status is often unknown. Therefore, based on literature data from undisturbed sites the soil biological classification concept (BBSK) was developed, using Enchytraeidae and Lumbricidae as an example. This BBSK approach was applied at a site (Bruchsal) with four sampling plots, which differ in vegetation (two deciduous, two coniferous) and contamination, i.e. in distance to a highway. Based on five site properties (e.g. pH) the expected oligochaete species composition was predicted. Afterwards, the actual species composition was investigated. Two questions were studied: 1. How did anthropogenic stress such as highway emissions influence structure and function of soil organisms? 2. Is it possible to assess the quality of this site as a habitat for soil organisms by using the BBSK approach? The plots near the highway differed from the plots in the inner forest in enchytraeid species composition but not regarding earthworms and organic matter breakdown. Therefore, the soil of all Bruchsal plots is assessed as being conspicuous in its ability to act as a habitat for soil organisms. It is recommended to further develop the methods used here, preferably as part of the TRIAD concept.",Ecotoxicological evaluation of selected forest plots in Baden-Wurttemberg (Germany): Influence of emissions of potential toxic substances from a highway on oligochaetes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+190689,"Climate change is predicted to increase the occurrence of extreme temperature events. We constructed a stage-structured Leslie matrix model with intra-generational dynamics to explore the impact of extreme and fluctuating temperatures on host-parasitoid dynamics. We varied three temperature parameters to generate a range of temperature regimes that varied in their daily maximum temperatures, the number of warmer-than-average days and the autocorrelation of those warmer-than-average days. All three temperature parameters influenced host-parasitoid dynamics. Increasing the frequency of warmer than average days and the degree of autocorrelation only exerted significant impacts on host- parasitoid dynamics when daily maximum temperatures were sufficient to produce temperature-dependent mortality. The effects of increasing autocorrelation of daily temperatures were dependent on the maximum daily temperatures and the frequency of warmer than average days. When daily maximum temperatures were severely warm, but the frequency of those severely warm days was low, increasing autocorrelation increased the probability that the aphids and parasitoids will persist, but when the frequency of severely warm days is increased, increasing autocorrelation decreases the probability that the populations will persist. These temperature phenomena exert significant effects on host-parasitoid dynamics in addition to those effects produced by changes in mean temperatures and warrant further investigation at the community level.",Impact of extreme and fluctuating temperatures on aphid-parasitoid dynamics,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1286054,"1. Climate change is rapidly altering thermal environments across the globe. The effects of increased temperatures in already warm environments may be particularly strong because organisms are likely to be near their thermal safety margins, with limited tolerance to additional heat stress. 2. We conduct an in situ field experiment over 2years to investigate the direct effects of temperature change on an early-season solitary bee in a warm, arid region of the Southwestern USA. Our field experiment manipulates the thermal environment of Osmia ribifloris (Megachilidae) from larval development through adult emergence, simulating both previous cooler (c. 1950; nest boxes painted white) and future warmer (2040-2099; nest boxes painted black) climate conditions. In each year, we measure adult emergence phenology, linear body size, body mass, fat content and survival. 3. Bees in the warming treatment exhibit delayed emergence phenology and a substantial increase in phenological variance. Increases in temperature also lead to reductions in body mass and fat content. Whereas bees in the cooling and control treatments experience negligible amounts of mortality, bees in the warming treatment experience 30%-75% mortality. 4. Our findings indicate that temperature changes that have occurred since c. 1950 have likely had relatively weak and non-negative effects, but predicted warmer temperatures create a high stress thermal environment for O.ribifloris. Later and more variable emergence dates under warming likely compromise phenological synchrony with floral resources and the ability of individuals to find mates. The consequences of phenological asynchrony, combined with reductions in body mass and fat content, will likely impose fitness reductions for surviving bees. Combined with high rates of mortality, our results suggest that O.ribifloris may face local extinction in the warmer parts of its range within the century under climate change. 5. Temperature increases in already warm ecosystems can have substantial consequences for key components of life history, physiology and survival. Our study provides an important example of how the responses of ectothermic insects to temperature increases in already warm environments may be insufficient to mitigate the negative consequences of future climate change.","Experimental warming in the field delays phenology and reduces body mass, fat content and survival: Implications for the persistence of a pollinator under climate change",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3229021,"Global climate change has already caused bottom temperatures of coastal marine ecosystems to increase worldwide. These ecosystems face many pressures, of which fishing is one of the most important. While consequences of global warming on commercial species are studied extensively, the importance of the increase in bottom temperature and of variation in fishing effort is more rarely considered together in these exploited ecosystems. Using a 17 year time series from an international bottom trawl survey, we investigated covariations of an entire demersal ecosystem (101 taxa) with the environment in the Celtic Sea. Our results showed that over the past two decades, biotic communities in the Celtic Sea were likely controlled more by environmental variables than fisheries, probably due to its long history of exploitation. At the scale of the entire zone, relations between taxa and the environment remained stable over the years, but at a local scale, in the center of the Celtic Sea, dynamics were probably driven by interannual variation in temperature. Fishing was an important factor structuring species assemblages at the beginning of the time series (2000) but decreased in importance after 2009. This was most likely caused by a change in spatial distribution of fishing effort, following a change in targeted taxa from nephrops to deeper water anglerfish that did not covary with fishing effort. Increasing bottom temperatures could induce additional changes in the coming years, notably in the cold-water commercial species cod, hake, nephrops, and American plaice. We showed that analyzing covariation is an effective way to screen a large number of taxa and highlight those that may be most susceptible to future simultaneous increases in temperature and changes in exploitation pattern by fisheries. This information can be particularly relevant for ecosystem assessments.",Environment outweighs the effects of fishing in regulating demersal community structure in an exploited marine ecosystem,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+401900,"This paper presents multiproxy (pollen, magnetic susceptibility, sediment chemistry) records from two maar crater lakes in the Valle de Santiago of Guanajuato, Mexico: Hoya San Nicolas and Hoya Rincon de Parangueo. Sediment cores from the two sites have basal dates of ca 11,600 and 9600 cal yr BP, respectively. The San Nicolas results show that the lake desiccated several times during the Holocene, and this resulted in the selective destruction of the less resistant pollen types. A comparative analysis of data from both sites indicates that during the earliest Holocene (ca 11,600-9000 cal yr BP) there were short term oscillations of wetter and drier climate; during the early Holocene (ca 9000-5700 cal yr BP) it was on average wetter; during the middle Holocene (ca 5700-3800 cal yr BP) drier; and during the middle to late Holocene (ca 3800-2200 cal yr BP) wetter. Increasing human disturbance during the late Holocene of environment obscures the climatic record. Agricultural activities in the area began as early as ca 5700 cal yr BP and intensified around 2400 cal yr BP. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Holocene climate change and human impact, central Mexico: a record based on maar lake pollen and sediment chemistry",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+522673,"Background: The impact of climate change and particularly increasing temperature on mortality has been examined for three cities in the province of Quebec, Canada. Methods: Generalized linear Poisson regression has been fitted to the total daily mortality for each city. Smooth parametric cubic splines of temperature and humidity have been used to do nonlinear modeling of these parameters. The model, to control for day of the week and for non-temperature seasonal factors, used a smooth function of time, including delayed effects. The model was then used to assess variation in mortality for simulated future temperatures obtained from an atmospheric General Circulation Model coupled with downscaling regression techniques. Two CO2 emission scenarios are considered (scenarios A2 and B2). Projections are made for future periods around year 2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099). Results: A significant association between mortality and current temperature has been found for the three cities. Under CO2 emission scenarios A2 and B2, the mortality model predicts a significant increase in mortality in the summertime, and a smaller, but significant decrease in the fall season. The slight variations in projected mortality for future winter and spring seasons were found to be not statistically significant. The variations in projected annual mortality are dominated by an increase in mortality in the summer, which is not balanced by the decrease in mortality in the fall and winter seasons. The summer increase and the annual mortality range respectively from about 2% and 0.5% for the 2020 period, to 10% and 3% for the years around 2080. The difference between the mortality variations projected with the A2 or B2 scenarios was not statistically significant. Conclusion: For the three cities, the two CO2 emission scenarios considered led to an increase in annual mortality, which contrasts with most European countries, where the projected increase in summer mortality with respect to climate change is overbalanced by the decrease in winter mortality. This highlights the importance of place in such analyses. The method proposed here to establish these estimates is general and can also be applied to small cities, where mortality rates are relatively low (ex. two deaths/day).","The potential impact of climate change on annual and seasonal mortality for three cities in Quebec, Canada",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3323113,"Livestock production is a socioeconomic linchpin in Mongolia and is affected by large-scale livestock die-offs. Colloquially known as dzuds, these die-offs are driven by anomalous climatic events, including extreme cold temperatures, extended snow cover duration (SCD) and drought. As average temperatures across Mongolia have increased at roughly twice the global rate, we hypothesized that increasing cold season surface melt including soil freeze/thaw (FT), snowmelt, and icing events associated with regional warming have become increasingly important drivers of dzud events as they can reduce pasture productivity and inhibit access to grazing. Here, we use daily brightness temperature (T-b) observations to identify anomalous surface melt and icing events across Mongolia from 2003-2016 and their contribution to dzuds relative to other climatic drivers, including winter temperatures, SCD, and drought. We find a positive relationship between surface melt and icing events and livestock mortality during the fall in southern Mongolia and during the spring in the central and western regions. Further, anomalous seasonal surface melt and icing events explain 17-34% of the total variance in annual livestock mortality, with cold temperatures as the leading contributor of dzuds (20-37%). Summer drought showed the greatest explanatory power (43%) but overall had less statistically significant relationships relative to winter temperatures. Our results indicate that surface melt and icing events will become an increasingly important driver of dzuds as annual temperatures and livestock populations are projected to increase in Mongolia.",Role of Surface Melt and Icing Events in Livestock Mortality across Mongolia's Semi-Arid Landscape,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+646874,"People construct mental models of local climate change based on their observations and experiences of past climate events and changes. These mental models offer critical insight into locally important factors that trigger responses to new climate conditions and can be used to ground-truth regional climate models. In this paper, the authors explore mental models of changes to local climate patterns and climate-associated environmental changes over the past 45 years (1963-2008) in two rural communities in Matutuine District, Mozambique. Interview results are compared to data from a regional weather station. Residents discuss temperature increases, short-term and long-term precipitation changes, and altered seasonal timing. Measurable climate change in this region includes increasing temperatures and more erratic rainfall leading to drought and altered season timing. The climate-associated environmental changes residents observed draw attention to links between local livelihood practices and climate, as well as emphasize changes that would not necessarily appear in regional climate models. Such changes include reduced crop and wild fruit production, fewer cattle, variable forest size, increased wildfires and elephant conflict, drying up of water sources, poor health, and cultural change. Differences between adjacent communities highlight the potential interaction of landscape and vegetation variability, gender, and livelihoods in observations and experiences of climate change and demonstrate how mental models can provide insight into local ecological patterns and processes.",Why Analyze Mental Models of Local Climate Change? A Case from Southern Mozambique,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1306375,"The seas surrounding India, namely Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) with their associated coastal embayments form one of the highly productive areas and biodiversity hotspots in the tropics contributing profusely to the socioeconomic front of the region. Therefore, acquiring knowledge on the climate change scenario of this region and its impacts on marine ecosystems in general and planktons, in particular, is considered crucial for better resilience. In fact, several attempts have been made of late to understand the climate change impacts on plankton, corals and mangroves of this region. In this article, we tried to update the climate change scenario of Indian seas and its impact on plankton communities based on the information gathered from the peer reviewed publications and scientific reports. Results of this review have shown that the global warming generated SST (Sea Surface Temperature) rise and sea water acidification related pH fall have affected the species composition, abundance, phenology and metabolic pathways of plankton populations in this region.",Impact of climate change on marine plankton with special reference to Indian Seas,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+594159,"Time series of the dryness-wetness (DW) index of 531 yr (AD 1470-2000) at 42 stations in regions A (most of North China and the east of Northwest China) and B (the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley) in China are applied to investigating the historical DW characteristics over various periods of the series with a relatively stationary average value using Bernaola-Galvan (BG) algorithm. The results indicate that region A/B underwent three drought-intensive periods (DIP; 1471-1560, 1571-1640, and 1920-2000/1501-1540, 1631-1690, and 1911-1960) in the last 531 years. In the DIP of the last 130 years, the frequency of DW transition has increased in region A, but not obviously changed in region B in comparison with the other two historical DIPs. The dry period started in about 1920 in region A with severe drought events occurring from the late 1970s to the early 1980s. It lasted for about 50-70 yr in this century, and then a DW shift took place. The wet period in region B might maintain for the coming several decades. The variations of DW in region A are positively correlated with changes in temperature, but in region B, the correlation with temperature is weaker. It is found that the number of DW indices of various categories within a running window is an exponential function of the running window length. The dryness scale factor (DSF) is defined as the reciprocal of the characteristic value of the exponential distribution, and it has a band-like fluctuation distribution that is good for the detection of extreme drought (flood) clustering events. The results show that frequencies of the severe large-scale drought events that concurrently occurred in regions A and B were high in the late 12th century, the early 13th century, the early 17th century, and the late 20th century. This provides evidence for the existence of the time-clustering phenomena of droughts (floods).",Dry/wet changes and their standing characteristics in China during the past 531 years,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+622054,"The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has the largest area of snow in the mid-latitude regions, and is strongly affected by the climate change. We examine the temporal variability of winter snow depth and number of days of snow cover at 69 Chinese Meteorological Administration stations above 2000 m a.s.l. in the eastern and central TP during 1961-2005. Snow depth is positively correlated with the number of snow days (R = 0.89, p < 0.0001). Regional mean winter (DJF) depth and days of snow cover increase at rates of 0.32 mm decade(-1) and 0.40 d decade(-1) from 1961 to 1990, but at rates of -1.80 mm decade(-1) and -1.59 d decade(-1) (i.e. decrease) between 1991 and 2005. The long term trends are weakly positive, but unrepresentative of shorter time periods. Thus snow depth and cover change depends on the timescale examined and cannot be attributed solely to increased greenhouse gas forcing. The decreasing snow depth in recent years will influence hydrological processes and water resources on the plateau and downstream. Both snow depth and duration have positive correlations with the winter Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) index and Nino-3 region (5 degrees N-5 S, 150 degrees-90 degrees W) sea surface temperature (SST). During high AO/NAO index years, both a deeper India-Burma trough and an intensified cyclonic circulation near Lake Baikal bring more snowfall to the TP, consistent with a higher water vapor flux. The opposite is true in low AO/NAO years. Thus secular changes of snow depth and duration in the TP are not independent of changes in the macro-scale atmospheric circulation.",Observed changes in snow depth and number of snow days in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1805826,"The theory of runs was used in the investigation of frequency of occurrence, duration, magnitude and severity of drought in 46 districts of Zambia, 1886-1996. The 30-year ""normal"" rainfall was used as the threshold for drought occurrence with most analyses restricted to the 1921-1970 period. Analysis revealed that rainfall variability, indicated by increasing Ii-year coefficients of variation (CVs) for selected stations and decreasing rainfall trends observed in southern Zambia after 1975, was not extraordinary as similar conditions were experienced before the turn of 19th century. What was new, however, is that the decreasing rainfall after 1975 seems to be related to the accelerated global warming associated with anthropogenic activities. Implications of impacts of drought were assessed from scenarios of drought occurrence under the threat of rising global warming. Various drought adaptation measures are discussed. It is concluded that, in Zambia drought is a chronic phenomenon which requires pre-planned measures for minimizing its impacts.","Rainfall variability, drought and implications of its impacts on Zambia, 1886-1996",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+377719,"Owing to average temperature increases of at least twice the global mean, climate change is expected to have strong impacts on local hydrology and climatology in the Alps. Nevertheless, trend analyses of hydro-climatic station data rarely reveal clear patterns concerning climate change signals except in temperature observations. However, trend research has thus far mostly been based on analysing trends of averaged data such as yearly, seasonal or monthly averages and has therefore often not been able to detect the finer temporal dynamics. For this reason, we derived 30-day moving average trends, providing a daily resolution of the timing and magnitude of trends within the seasons. Results are validated by including different time periods. We studied daily observations of mean temperature, liquid and solid precipitation, snow height and runoff in the relatively dry central Alpine region in Tyrol, Austria. Our results indicate that the vast majority of changes are observed throughout spring to early summer, most likely triggered by the strong temperature increase during this season. Temperature, streamflow and snow trends have clearly amplified during recent decades. The overall results are consistent over the entire investigation area and different time periods.","Detection of regional climate change effects on alpine hydrology by daily resolution trend analysis in Tyrol, Austria",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+17754,"To persist, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges polewards or to higher elevations as the Earth's climate warms(1-4). However, although many species' ranges have shifted in historical times, many others have not, or have shifted only at the high-latitude or high-elevation limits, leading to range expansions rather than contractions(5-11). Given these idiosyncratic responses to climate warming, and their varied implications for species' vulnerability to climate change, a critical task is to understand why some species have not shifted their ranges, particularly at the equatorial or low-elevation limits, and whether such resilience will last as warming continues. Here we show that compensatory changes in demographic rates are buffering southern populations of two North American tundra plants against the negative effects of a warming climate, slowing their northward range shifts, but that this buffering is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Southern populations of both species showed lower survival and recruitment but higher growth of individual plants, possibly owing to longer, warmer growing seasons. Because of these and other compensatory changes, the population growth rates of southern populations are not at present lower than those of northern ones. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as most demographic rates that improved in moderately warmer years declined in the warmest years, with the potential to drive future population declines. Our results emphasize the need for long-term, range-wide measurement of all population processes to detect demographic compensation and to identify nonlinear responses that may lead to sudden range shifts as climatic tipping points are exceeded.",Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1394057,"An earlier study by Dickey et al. [1992] established the existence of globally coherent interannual fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In this paper, we pursue the origin and the structure of these fluctuations using an ensemble of experiments generated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, medium range forecast model version 9. In the control experiments, where the observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were used as the lower boundary conditions, the model captures the characteristic V-like structure in time-latitude plots of zonally averaged AAM found by Dickey et al., while experiments with climatological SSTs and those with either perpetual warm or cold ENSO conditions superimposed on the climatological SSTs failed to reproduce this structure. The numerical results indicate that these AAM structures are related to SST variations associated with transitions between different phases of the ENSO cycle and have both propagating and standing components. The largest zonal wind contribution from the levels studied (850, 500, and 200 hPa) is at 200 hPa, where the tropical convective outflow is the strongest. Composites of zonal wind and geopotential height show a clear relationship between the stages of the global AAM oscillation and the ENSO cycle. The strong similarity between the simulated and observed AAM series attests to the model's ability to realistically simulate the interannual response of the atmosphere to ENSO SST anomalies.",Interannual fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum simulated by the national centers for environmental prediction medium range forecast model,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+110019,"Observations worldwide are providing an increasing amount of atmosphere-ecosystem flux data. Thus, the establishment of a data mining methodology to detect significant trends and attribute changes to specific factors is important. This study examined the possibility of detecting significant trends in observed data at a test site with one of the longest records of flux measurements (Takayama, Japan). Statistical tests using non-parametric methods showed a 'likely' trend (i.e., detected at 66-90% confidence level) of increasing carbon sequestration. To investigate the change in carbon sequestration in relation to biological and environmental factors (ambient CO2, temperature, radiation, precipitation and disturbance), mechanistic and numerical methods were applied. A process-based model was used for the mechanistic attribution of change, and an optimal fingerprinting method in combination with model-based sensitivity simulations was used for numerical attribution. At the study site, local disturbances appeared to exert an impact on the observed carbon sequestration, whereas climatic factors made moderate contributions. These results indicate the feasibility of detection and attribution using current flux measurement data, although more evidence is needed to confirm global coherence.",Detection and attribution of global change and disturbance impacts on a tower-observed ecosystem carbon budget: a critical appraisal,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+57128,"Background On-going climate change is predicted to result in a growing number of extreme weather events-such as heat waves-throughout Europe. The effect of high temperatures and heat waves are already having an important impact on public health in terms of increased mortality, but studies from an Estonian setting are almost entirely missing. We investigated mortality in relation to high summer temperatures and the time course of mortality in a coastal and inland region of Estonia. Methods We collected daily mortality data and daily maximum temperature for a coastal and an inland region of Estonia. We applied a distributed lag non-linear model to investigate heat related mortality and the time course of mortality in Estonia. Results We found an immediate increase in mortality associated with temperatures exceeding the 75th percentile of summer maximum temperatures, corresponding to approximately 23 degrees C. This increase lasted for a couple of days in both regions. The total effect of elevated temperatures was not lessened by significant mortality displacement. Discussion We observed significantly increased mortality in Estonia, both on a country level as well as for a coastal region and an inland region with a more continental climate. Heat related mortality was higher in the inland region as compared to the coastal region, however, no statistically significant differences were observed. The lower risks in coastal areas could be due to lower maximum temperatures and cooling effects of the sea, but also better socioeconomic condition. Our results suggest that region specific estimates of the impacts of temperature extremes on mortality are needed.",High Summer Temperatures and Mortality in Estonia,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+174264,"The aim of this study is to explore the burning pattern of the catastrophic wildfires that occurred in Peloponnisos, southern Greece, in 2007. These fires caused the loss of 67 lives and were recognized as the most extreme natural disaster in the country's recent history. We compare the 2007 fires against fuel availability across the landscape in the light of a null model using Monte-Carlo randomization and against the fire pattern for the preceding period, 2000-2006. Additionally we applied a multi-response permutation-procedure test, a data-driven method free from assumptions about the underlying distribution. The study contributes to the ongoing debate over the relative importance of fuel versus weather in explaining large and intense wildfires. While the majority of the 2007 wildfires burned low-elevation fire-prone ecosystems, a part of them moved to non-fire-prone ecosystems, indicating a departure from the burning pattern of recent history. The CORINE land-cover categories most affected by fire included agricultural lands highly interspersed with large areas of natural vegetation followed by sclerophyllous vegetation, transitional woodland shrubs, complex cultivation patterns and olive groves. These reflect greater fuel accumulation through the encroachment of natural vegetation in abandoned fields as well as changing patterns of land-use. The rising proportions of humid and sub-humid areas burned are clearly related to weather patterns. The synergistic effect between fuel and weather helps explain the unusually large 2007 wildfires in Peloponnisos. This change may imply a climatically driven alteration of the established fire-regime promoted by fuel accumulation that portends major ecological consequences. The ecological disaster foreseen is justified by the lack of specific adaptations to cope with fire in non fire-prone plant communities. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Where did the fires burn in Peloponnisos, Greece the summer of 2007? Evidence for a synergy of fuel and weather",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+74011,"Wildfire poses a rising threat in the western USA, fueled by synergies between historical fire suppression, changing land use, insects and disease, and shifts toward a drier, warmer climate. The rugged landscapes of northeast Oregon, with their historically forest- and resource-based economies, have been one of the areas affected. A 2011 survey found area residents highly concerned about fire and insect threats, but not about climate change. In 2014 we conducted a second survey that, to explore this apparent disconnect, included questions about past and future summertime (fire season) temperatures. Although regional temperatures have warmed in recent decades at twice the global rate, accompanied by increasing dryness and fire risks, the warming itself is recognized by only 40 % of our respondents. Awareness of recent warming proves unrelated to individual characteristics that might indicate experience on the land: old-timer versus newcomer status, year-round versus seasonal residence, and ownership of forested land. Perceptions of past warming and expectations of future warming are more common among younger respondents and less common among Tea Party supporters. The best-educated partisans stand farthest apart. Perceptions about local temperatures that are important for adaptation planning thus follow ideological patterns similar to beliefs about global climate change.","Wildfire, climate, and perceptions in Northeast Oregon",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1556752,"The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was widely used in climatology and hydrology studies, because its combination the sensitivity of the PDSI to the changes in ET (caused by air temperature fluctuations and trends) with the simplicity of calculation, but also has the robustness of the multitemporal nature of the SPI. In this article, the temporal and spatial pattern of drought based on SPEI was explored in the Inner Mongolia during 1960-2013. The results showed that SPEI can effectively reveal the multiscalar feature of drought, and the effect of air temperature rising on drought severity and cumulative effect of drought itself. SPEI is suitable for those longer time scales such as 6-month or longer, and better in semi-humid and semi-arid areas than in arid area, due to much zero values or extreme maximum values at shorter time scale or in arid area. Generally, there is a drying trend in the whole Inner Mongolia, and a very severe drought was revealed at multi-time scales during the 2000s. Annual SPEI change at 6-month scale from APR to SEP indicated that drought in plant-growth season is very frequent and increasingly serious, and it should be given more attention. The severities of drought vary in different sub-regions. A significant abrupt change point of drought change trend in the whole Inner Mongolia at 12-month time scale was diagnosed in late 1990s, while this abrupt point in the middle-west subarea is a little earlier than those in the northeast subarea and the southeast subarea. This lasting severe drought should be the result of joint action of increasing air temperature and obviously decreasing precipitation since 2000s. At the same time, the most severe and frequent drought mainly occurred along the Sino-Mongolia border and the Horqin Sandy Land, while the continuous belt along the Da Hinggan Ling Mountains, the Yinshan Mountains, the Hetao Plain and the Mu Us Sandy Land is the area with relative slight drying trend during the last decades. Drought spatial pattern indicated by SPEI was supported by spatial distribution of temperature vegetation drought index based on remote sensing.",Drought variability in Inner Mongolia of northern China during 1960-2013 based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+786780,"The Xijiang River is known as the Golden Watercourse because of its role in the development of the Pearl River Delta Regional Economic System in China, which was made possible by its abundant water resources. At present, the hydrological regime of the Xijiang River has now become complicated, the water shortages and successive droughts pose a threat to regional economic development. However, the complexity of hydroclimatological processes with emphasizes on drought has not been comprehended. In order to effectively predict and develop the adaptation strategies to cope with the water scarcity damage caused by hydrological droughts, it is essential to thoroughly analyze the relationship between hydrological droughts and pre/post-dependent hydroclimatological factors. To accomplish this, the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method (ESMD) was utilized to reveal the periodic variation in hydrological droughts that is characterized by the Standardized Drought Index (SDI). In addition, the cross-wavelet transform method was applied to investigate the correlation between large-scale climate indices and drought. The results showed that hydrological drought had the most significant response to spring ENSO (El Nifio-Southern Oscillation), and the response lags in sub-basins were mostly 8-9 months except that in Yujiang River were mainly 5 or 8 months. Signal reservoir operation in the Yujiang River reduced drought severity by 52-95.8% from January to April over the 2003-2014 time period. Similarly, the cascade reservoir alleviated winter and spring droughts in the Hongshuihe River Basin. However, autumn drought was aggravated with severity increased by 41.9% in September and by 160.9% in October, so that the land surface models without considering human intervention must be used with caution in the hydrological simulation. The response lags of the VCI (Vegetation Condition Index) to hydrological drought were different in the sub-basins. The response lag for the Hongshuihe, Yujiang, and Liujiang River Basins were mostly 0-4 months, 0-1 months, and 2-3 months, respectively, but there was no obvious regular change pattern in the Guijiang River Basin. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Correlation between hydrological drought, climatic factors, reservoir operation, and vegetation cover in the Xijiang Basin, South China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+701151,"Black or elemental carbon (EC), including soot and char, are byproducts of anthropogenic fossil-fuel and biomass burning, and also of wildfires. EC, and particularly soot, strongly affects atmospheric chemistry and physics and thus radiative forcing; it can also alter regional climate and precipitation. Pre-industrial variations in EC as well as its source areas and controls however, are poorly known. Here we use a lake-sediment EC record from China to reconstruct Holocene variations in soot (combustion emissions formed via gas-to-particle conversion processes) and char (combustion residues from pyrolysis) measured with a thermal/optical method. Comparisons with sedimentary charcoal records (i.e., particles measured microscopically), climate and population data are used to infer variations in biomass burning and its controls. During the Holocene, positive correlations are observed between EC and an independent index of regional biomass burning. Negative correlations are observed between EC and monsoon intensity, and tree cover inferred from arboreal pollen percentages. Abrupt declines in temperature are also linked with widespread declines in fire. Our results 1) confirm the robustness of a relatively new method for reconstructing variations in EC; 2) document variations in regional biomass burning; 3) support a strong climatic control of biomass burning throughout the Holocene; and 4) indicate that char levels are higher today than at any time during the Holocene. Citation: Han, Y. M., J. R. Marlon, J. J. Cao, Z. D. Jin, and Z. S. An (2012), Holocene linkages between char, soot, biomass burning and climate from Lake Daihai, China, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 26, GB4017, doi:10.1029/2011GB004197.","Holocene linkages between char, soot, biomass burning and climate from Lake Daihai, China",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2312579,"Defining appropriate management and conservation strategies to maximize tidal marsh resilience to sea level rise requires a clear understanding of the causes of marsh degradation. While sea level rise is a well-known threat to tidal marshes, current and past management practices on marshes can also greatly influence present-day marsh condition, resilience and future persistence. Using point-intercept analysis of maps and imagery, we assessed the past and current landcover and elevation of Delaware Estuary tidal marshes in New Jersey, USA. We estimated the historic extent of tidal marsh impoundment for agriculture and determined current marsh vegetation composition and elevation in areas that were and were not historically impounded. We estimate that more than half of all tidal marsh in the 36,539 ha study area had been historically impounded. A small fraction of this area remains impounded at present (7.6%). While tidal flow has since returned to formerly diked areas, marsh recovery has been incomplete. Overall 21.6% (4048.8 ha) of formerly impounded marsh has not revegetated, becoming open water after impoundment breaches. Marsh loss as a result of impoundment is also responsible for the loss of 23 km of adjacent shoreline beaches. Conversely, only 0.5% of marsh that was never impounded has converted to open water since 1931. This difference is likely due to dramatic elevation deficits caused by impoundment. Marsh elevation of current and formerly impounded areas (derived from LiDAR and validated with RTK GPS) is significantly lower than the elevation of marsh areas that were never impounded. Supporting this finding, the frequency of high marsh vegetation (an indicator of higher elevation)in vegetated formerly impounded areas is half that of areas that were never impounded. Marsh edge erosion and creek expansion have added an additional estimated 3836 ha to the amount of tidal marsh loss since 1931. Marsh transgression inland into forest and agricultural areas has resulted in estimated gains in marsh area of 2815 ha, offsetting a considerable proportion of losses. Given our results, we recommend the following management actions to maximize tidal marsh persistence in the Delaware Estuary: (1) Beneficial use of sediment to offset marsh elevation deficits resulting from historic impoundment, (2) Strategic land protection to maximize the potential for inland marsh migration, (3) Tidal flow restoration to remaining impounded areas in combination with the beneficial use of sediment to address elevation deficits. Determining the impacts to tidal marshes from past management practices makes it possible parse the relative contribution of relative sea level rise and site-level management, resulting in more targeted conservation strategies. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",The impact of past management practices on tidal marsh resilience to sea level rise in the Delaware Estuary,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+631442,"The marine red macroalgae Pyropia haitanensis (Rhodophyta) were cultured at 18 and 22A degrees C, and at 390 and 1,000 ppm CO2, to examine the potential influence of global change on this commercially important species. The results showed that elevated CO2 or temperature hardly affected the relative growth rate. However, the maximal photochemical yield (F (v)/F (m)) was increased by elevated CO2 or temperature. The light-saturated maximum photosynthetic rates significantly increased with the increasing growth temperature, but decreased dramatically with elevated CO2. While the increasing growth temperature enhanced the dark respiration (R (d)), elevated CO2 had no significant effect on it. An increase of growth temperature lowered the temperature sensitivities (i.e., the Q (10) values) of both gross photosynthesis (P (g)) and respiration, whereas elevated CO2 did not significantly affect the Q (10) values for these two metabolic processes. Algae grown at 22A degrees C exhibited higher ratio of R (d) to P (g) than 18A degrees C-grown algae. By contrast, CO2-enriched growth conditions exerted no significant effect on the ratio. The results suggested that elevated temperature exerted a greater pronounced effect on carbon metabolism than elevated CO2 did. We proposed that the growth of P. haitanensis would not be stimulated by the ongoing climate change (increasing atmospheric CO2 and global warming).","Do increased temperature and CO2 levels affect the growth, photosynthesis, and respiration of the marine macroalga Pyropia haitanensis (Rhodophyta)? An experimental study",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3882418,"In recent years, biochar, the solid by-product resulting from biomass pyrolysis or gasification, has been mainly studied and applied as soil amendment, while research on its application as a building material is still scanty. The rising interest in this context is mainly related to the chance of reducing the emission of greenhouse gases that have serious environmental impacts and are responsible for the climate change. Since biochar is mainly composed by carbon, the aim is to obtain smart materials able to capture and store carbon in buildings for decades in a stable form. This paper aims to prove the feasibility of using biochar derived from agro-forestry waste residues as carbon sequestrating additive in cement mortar, by adding it, during mixing, at 1% by weight of cement. In order to assess the efficiency of biochar-added mortar as building material, its mechanical properties have been properly investigated; the results show that the addition of char in the admixture leads to comparable compressive strength, flexural strength, toughness and ductility with respect to traditional cement mortars. © Federation Internationale du Beton (fib) - International Federation for Structural Concrete, 2019.",Experimental research on mechanical properties of biochar-added cementitious mortars,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+701889,"The main objective of this research was to study the streamflow evolution of a representative sample of the Spanish near-natural-regime fluvial system over the last four decades of the 20th century. The focus of this study was on those headwater river basins that, not having been subject to substantial human alteration directly via the flow regime, might still have been affected by changes in land management. A representative sample of 74 rivers was selected and a statistical analysis was performed to detect seasonal and annual trends, and the magnitude of streamflow change. Almost all of the rivers studied experienced reductions in streamflow, and three quarters of them had negative and significant (p<0.05) trends in streamflow change. It was impossible to detect any spatial pattern in terms of the type or trend magnitude. The main decreases in the discharge of these near-natural rivers in Spain was observed in the spring and summer, when 81% and 70% of the rivers, respectively, exhibited significant negative trends. The magnitudes of the changes are also remarkable. The average annual percentage change in streamflow magnitude of the 74 basins was -1.45% per year, which corresponds to an average streamflow reduction equivalent to 153 hm(3) every year. The results of this study are relevant in view of future climatic scenarios and the evolution of land management in rural and mountain areas, as has already been observed in many parts of the Mediterranean and other regions. Global warming, resulting in continuous temperature increases and therefore evapotranspiration increases, is clearly one factor potentially affecting streamflow, together with land abandonment and subsequent continuous forest expansion. These results obtained in Spain could be extrapolated to other areas in the Mediterranean and beyond and should be taken into account in any water policy and water management in the near future.",Recent trends in rivers with near-natural flow regime: The case of the river headwaters in Spain,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3744644,"Protective clothing is essential for human existence in the Arctic, and caribou-skin clothing has played a pivotal role for millennia. Although people with northern experience often extol caribou-skin clothing, few scientific studies have investigated its properties. We used infrared thermal imaging in a pilot study to compare authentic caribou-skin clothing sewn by traditional Inuit seamstresses with two other types of cold-weather clothing: a standard-issue, Canadian army, winter uniform and an ensemble of modern retail clothing designed for extreme cold (a down anorak and snowmobile pants). To make the comparison, two subjects sequentially wore the three types of clothing—caribou skin, army uniform, and modern retail—in a still air, uniform thermal environment (where radiant temperatures of all environmental surfaces were equal to air temperature) at −21˚C to −23˚C (−6˚F to −10˚F). Thermal imaging quantifies the temperature of the outer surface of clothing, thereby providing key, functionally relevant information on the interface where clothing and environment meet. Under otherwise similar conditions, a low clothing surface temperature indicates superior clothing performance and a reduced rate of heat loss from the body to the environment. Caribou-skin clothing was similar to modern extreme-cold retail clothing: the whole-body composite surface temperature of our subjects wearing caribou-skin clothing was −22.1˚C to −22.7˚C, compared with −21.6˚C in both subjects wearing the modern retail clothing. The army winter uniform (−18.9˚C to −20.0˚C) was inferior. These quantitative results were mirrored by the subjects’ subjective impressions. A particular advantage of thermal imaging is that it pinpoints locations in clothing where heat leaks occur. Although the two types of modern clothing exhibited heat leaks at zippered structures (even though fully closed), the caribou-skin clothing evaded such heat leaks by lacking such structures, because it is donned over the head. The integral hood characteristic of a caribou-skin parka was also superior in comparison to the detachable hood of the army uniform. © The Arctic Institute of North America.",Thermal imaging and physiological analysis of cold-climate caribou-skin clothing,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+783688,"The Arctic is warming more rapidly than other region on the planet, and the northern Barents Sea, including the Svalbard Archipelago, is experiencing the fastest temperature increases within the circumpolar Arctic, along with the highest rate of sea ice loss. These physical changes are affecting a broad array of resident Arctic organisms as well as some migrants that occupy the region seasonally. Herein, evidence of climate change impacts on terrestrial and marine wildlife in Svalbard is reviewed, with a focus on bird and mammal species. In the terrestrial ecosystem, increased winter air temperatures and concomitant increases in the frequency of rain-on-snow' events are one of the most important facets of climate change with respect to impacts on flora and fauna. Winter rain creates ice that blocks access to food for herbivores and synchronizes the population dynamics of the herbivore-predator guild. In the marine ecosystem, increases in sea temperature and reductions in sea ice are influencing the entire food web. These changes are affecting the foraging and breeding ecology of most marine birds and mammals and are associated with an increase in abundance of several temperate fish, seabird and marine mammal species. Our review indicates that even though a few species are benefiting from a warming climate, most Arctic endemic species in Svalbard are experiencing negative consequences induced by the warming environment. Our review emphasizes the tight relationships between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems in this High Arctic archipelago. Detecting changes in trophic relationships within and between these ecosystems requires long-term (multidecadal) demographic, population- and ecosystem-based monitoring, the results of which are necessary to set appropriate conservation priorities in relation to climate warming.","Climate change impacts on wildlife in a High Arctic archipelago - Svalbard, Norway",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+242928,"Snow is an important environmental factor in alpine ecosystems, which influences plant phenology, growth and species composition in various ways. With current climate warming, the snow-to-rain ratio is decreasing, and the timing of snowmelt advancing. In a 2-year field experiment above treeline in the Swiss Alps, we investigated how a substantial decrease in snow depth and an earlier snowmelt affect plant phenology, growth, and reproduction of the four most abundant dwarf-shrub species in an alpine tundra community. By advancing the timing when plants started their growing season and thus lost their winter frost hardiness, earlier snowmelt also changed the number of low-temperature events they experienced while frost sensitive. This seemed to outweigh the positive effects of a longer growing season and hence, aboveground growth was reduced after advanced snowmelt in three of the four species studied. Only Loiseleuria procumbens, a specialist of wind exposed sites with little snow, benefited from an advanced snowmelt. We conclude that changes in the snow cover can have a wide range of species-specific effects on alpine tundra plants. Thus, changes in winter climate and snow cover characteristics should be taken into account when predicting climate change effects on alpine ecosystems.",Winter climate change in alpine tundra: plant responses to changes in snow depth and snowmelt timing,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+229829,"There is a growing concern over the effects of climate change on glacier melting and hydrology. In this article, we used a natural large-scale basin, the Niyang River Basin in the Southeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China, to show how climate change accelerates glacier melting and consequently leads to hydrological change. First, nonparametric tests were used to analyse the trends of streamflow, precipitation and temperature since 1979. An artificial neural network was then adopted to construct precipitation-streamflow models. Due to lack of data, 30 climate change scenarios were assumed to simulate streamflow sensitivity to climate change. There were significant increasing trends in streamflow over annual and wet season periods (May-October), whereas insignificant trend on annual precipitation was detected. This, along with a significant decreasing trend of water temperature during the wet season, suggests that climate warming has caused acceleration of glacier melting, which resulted in increased streamflow and summer water cooling. The simulation results indicated that streamflow is very sensitive to climate change, particularly with temperature change. Annual streamflow increased by an average of 65 mm per 0.5 C temperature increment with precipitation unchanged. Streamflow in the wet season is more sensitive to climate change than in the dry season (November-April). Average streamflow increase per 0.5 degrees C increment in the wet season was projected to be 59.4 mm for the scenarios with precipitation unchanged. Implications of these results for future water and watershed management were discussed in the context of close linkages among climate change, glacier melting and water resources. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Climate change, glacier melting and streamflow in the Niyang River Basin, Southeast Tibet, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+547881,"Human migration attributable to climate events has recently received significant attention from the academic and policy communities(1,2). Quantitative evidence on the relationship between individual, permanent migration and natural disasters is limited(3-9). A 21-year longitudinal survey conducted in rural Pakistan (1991-2012) provides a unique opportunity to understand the relationship between weather and long-term migration. We link individual-level information from this survey to satellite-derived measures of climate variability and control for potential confounders using a multivariate approach. We find that flooding-a climate shock associated with large relief efforts-has modest to insignificant impacts on migration. Heat stress, however-which has attracted relatively little relief-consistently increases the long-term migration of men, driven by a negative effect on farm and non-farm income. Addressing weather-related displacement will require policies that both enhance resilience to climate shocks and lower barriers to welfare-enhancing population movements.",Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1545755,"Information on the effect of temperature on biological parameters of phytophagous insects is one of the tools in IPM programs, as it allows prediction of risk situations in the field. This work reports the effect of temperature on reproductive parameters and longevity of one of the most important current pests of almond orchards in the Mediterranean basin, the poplar lace bug, Monosteira unicostata (Mulsant & Rey) (Hemiptera: Tingidae). The temperatures tested were 22, 25, 28, 31, 34 and 37 degrees C, always at 60 +/- 10% relative humidity and under a L16:D8 photoperiod. Extreme temperatures had an adverse effect on preoviposition period, total fecundity and daily fecundity while increasing values of oviposition period and adults longevity were registered for decreasing temperatures. Male longevity was higher than female longevity, and mortality pattern differed between sexes for all temperatures but 37 degrees C. The nonlinear Lactin model described accurately the effect of temperature on the intrinsic rate of natural increase of M. unicostata populations and predicted the optimum temperature for population increase at 34.1 degrees C, at which the population doubling time is 3.6 days. Produced values of lower and upper thresholds for M. unicostata populations were 14.8 and 38.8 degrees C, respectively. This characterizes the poplar lace bug as a very important pest in the Mediterranean basin, with an increasing potential risk in a global warming scenario.","Reproduction, longevity and life table parameters of &ITMonosteira&IT &ITunicostata&IT (Hemiptera: Tingidae) at constant temperatures",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1629054,"Objectives: There is a growing body of evidence linking ambient air temperature and adverse health effects, in the form of hospitalization or even increased mortality mainly due to respiratory and cardio/cerebro-vascular illnesses. In the present study, we examine the association between high ambient air temperature and cardiovascular as well as respiratory mortality for the population of the greater area of Thessaloniki, Greece, taking into account the role of particulate pollution as a potential confounder. Methods: A mixed Poisson regression model, using a quasi-likelihood function to account for potential over-dispersion in the outcome distribution given covariates, was combined with distributed lag non-linear models, to estimate the non-linear and lag patterns in the association between mortality and daily mean temperature from 1999 to 2012. Results: A direct heat effect was found, as the mortality risk increased sharply above the temperature threshold of 33 degrees C, suggesting a significant effect of high temperatures on mortality on the same and next day of the heat events (lags 0-1) which was retained for a week, whereas a harvesting effect was noticed for the following days. Cardiovascular and respiratory mortality risk increased by 4.4% (95% CI 2.7%-6.1%) and 5.9% (95% CI 1.8%-10.3%) respectively on the same and following day of a heat event, whereas the risk dropped steeply in the following days. Particulate matter did not confound the association between high temperature and mortality in this population. Conclusion: There is a significant association between mortality and hot temperatures in Thessaloniki, Greece. Reduction in exposure to increased temperatures, as part of prevention measures and strategies, should be considered for vulnerable subpopulations. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","The effect of ambient air temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in Thessaloniki, Greece",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2080277,"Fine scale three-dimensional (3D) permafrost distributions at the basin scale are currently lacking. They are needed to monitor climatic and ecosystem change and for the maintenance of infrastructure in cold regions. This paper determined the horizontal and vertical distributions of permafrost and its quantitative responses to climate warming in the High Asia region by constructing a quasi-3D model that couples heal transfer and water movement and is forced by spatially-interpolated air temperatures using an elevation-dependent regression method. Four air temperature scenarios were considered: the present stale and air temperature increases of 1, 2 and 3 degrees C A fine-scale permafrost map was constructed. The map considered taliks and local factors including elevation, slope and aspect, and agreed well with field observations. Permafrost will experience severe degradation with climate warming, with decreases in area of 36% per degree increase in air temperature, increases in the depth-to-permafrost table of 2.67 m per degree increase in air temperature, and increases in 15 m-depth ground temperatures of 125 degrees C per degree 'increase in air temperature. Permafrost is more vulnerable in and beside river valleys than in high mountains, and on sunny rather than shady slopes. These results provide an effective reference for permafrost prediction and 'infrastructure and ecosystem management in cold regions affected by global warming. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Three-dimensional distribution of permafrost and responses to increasing air temperatures in the head waters of the Yellow River in High Asia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2089939,"Recurring summer outbreaks of black band disease (BBD) on an inshore reef in the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR) constitute the first recorded BBD epizootic in the region. In a 2.7 year study of 485 colonies of Montipora species, BBD affected up to 10 per cent of colonies in the assemblage. Mean maximum abundance of BBD reached 16+/-6 colonies per 100 m(2) (n=3 quadrats, each 100 m(2)) in summer, and decreased to 0-1 colony per 100 m(2) in winter. On average, BBD lesions caused 40 per cent tissue loss and 5 per cent of infections led to whole colony mortality. BBD reappearance on previously infected colonies and continuous tissue loss after the BBD signs had disappeared suggest that the disease impacts are of longer duration than indicated by the presence of characteristic signs. Rates of new infections and linear progression of lesions were both positively correlated with seasonal fluctuations in sea water temperatures and light, suggesting that seasonal increases in these environmental parameters promote virulence of the disease. Overall, the impacts of BBD are greater than previously reported on the GBR and likely to escalate with ocean warming.","Dynamics of seasonal outbreaks of black band disease in an assemblage of Montipora species at Pelorus Island (Great Barrier Reef, Australia)",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+45812,"This study aims to investigate separate and combined impacts of land-use and climate variability on hydrological components in the Johor River Basin (JRB), Malaysia. The Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests were applied to detect the trends in precipitation, temperature and streamflow of the JRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated using measured monthly streamflow data. The validation results showed that SWAT was reliable in the tropical JRB. The trend analysis showed that there was an insignificant increasing trend for streamflow, whereas significant increasing trends for precipitation and temperature were found. The combined (climate + land-use change) impact caused the annual streamflow and evaporation to increase by 4.4% and 1.2%, respectively. Climate (land-use) raised annual streamflow by 4.4% (0.06%) and evaporation by 2.2% (-0.2%). Climate change imposed a stronger impact than land-use change on the streamflow and evaporation. These findings are useful for decision makers to develop better water and land-use policies. [GRAPHICS] Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor V. Krysanova","Impacts of land-use and climate variability on hydrological components in the Johor River basin, Malaysia",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1440321,"This study assesses the applicability of remote sensing data for retrieval of key drought indicators including the degree of moisture deficiency, drought duration and areal extent of drought within different land cover types across the landscape. A Normalized Vegetation Supply Water Index (NVSWI) is devised, combining remotely sensed climate data to retrieve key drought indicators over different vegetation cover types and a lag-time relationship is established based on preceding rainfall. The results indicate that during the major drought event of spring 2010, Evergreen Forest (EF) experienced severe dry conditions for 48 days fewer than Cropland (CL) and Shrubland (SL). Testing of vegetation response to drought conditions with different lag-time periods since the last rainfall indicated a highest correlation for CL and SL with the 4th lag period (i.e., 64 days) whereas EF exhibited maximum correlation with the 5th lag period (i.e., 80 days). Evergreen Forest, which includes tree crops, appears to act as a green reservoir of water, and is more resistant than CL and SL to drought due to its water retention capacity with deeper roots to tap sub-surface water. Identifying differences in rainfall lag-time relationships among land cover types using a remote sensing-based integrated drought index enables more accurate drought prediction, and can thus assist in the development of more specific drought adaptation strategies.","Characterization of Drought Development through Remote Sensing: A Case Study in Central Yunnan, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+564953,"This paper reviews the observational and theoretical basis for the prediction of seasonal-to-interannual (S/I) climate variability in the Atlantic sector. The emphasis is on the large-scale picture rather than on regional details. The paper is divided into two main parts: a discussion of the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-the dominant pattern of variability in the North Atlantic-and a review of the tropical Atlantic prediction problem. The remote effects of El Nino are also mentioned as an important factor in Atlantic climate variability. Only a brief discussion is provided on the subject of South Atlantic climate predictability. Because of its chaotic dynamical nature, the NAO and its related rainfall and temperature variability, while highly significant over Europe and North America, are largely unpredictable. This also affects the predictive skill over the tropical Atlantic, because the NAO interferes with the remote influence of El Nino. That said, there appears to be an insufficiently understood, marginal signal in the NAO behavior that may be predictable and thus useful to certain end users. It is manifested in the deviation of the NAO temporal behavior from first-order autoregressive behavior. Tropical Atlantic climate variability centers on the sensitivity of the marine ITCZ to remote forcing from the equatorial Pacific and interactions with underlying sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Both mechanisms are potentially predictable-that is, given the underlying SSTs and the strength of El Nino, one could determine with a high degree of skill the anomalies in ITCZ position and intensity. However, local SSTs are easily affected by largely unpredictable North and South Atlantic phenomena, such as the NAO. In addition, the local ocean-atmosphere coupling in the Atlantic acts on relatively short time scales. Thus, in reality the level of skill indicated by forced model simulations are difficult to achieve. The use of coupled models may improve the prospects of tropical Atlantic prediction.",The physical basis for predicting Atlantic sector seasonal-to-interannual climate variability,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1555517,"Snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been shown to be essential for the East Asian summer monsoon. In this paper, we demonstrate that tropical cyclone (TC) 04B (1999) in the northern Indian Ocean, which made landfall during the autumn of 1999, may have contributed to climate anomalies over East Asia during the following spring and summer by increasing snow cover on the TP. Observations indicate that snow cover on the TP increased markedly after TC 04B (1999) made landfall in October of 1999. Sensitivity experiments, in which the TC was removed from a numerical model simulation of the initial field, verified that TC 04B (1999) affected the distribution as well as increased the amount of snow on the TP. In addition, the short-term numerical modeling of the climate over the region showed that the positive snow cover anomaly induced negative surface temperature, negative sensible heat flux, positive latent heat flux, and positive soil temperature anomalies over the central and southern TP during the following spring and summer. These climate anomalies over the TP were associated with positive (negative) summer precipitation anomalies over the Yangtze River valley (along the southeastern coast of China).",POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SHORT-TERM CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN EAST ASIA VIA SNOW COVER ON THE TIBETAN PLATEAU,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+3949053,"The results of a five-year effort at correcting the operational deficiencies of a 4,000-ton central chilled-water plant are presented. The results show what primary considerations need to be taken to reduce pumping costs, maximize the use of existing tonnage, and increase the overall temperature difference of the system. The system discussed uses primary/secondary variable-speed pumping systems combined with a global direct digital control (DDC) system. Comparisons are made with other systems, and the function of key hydronic components is described. Modifications to the system reduced the number of distribution pumps required and improved the operational efficiency of the chillers by raising the water temperature differential from 6°F (3.3°C) to 15°F (8.3°C). Control problems were reduced, and increased system flexibility was observed. Past changes, as well as future installations, are presented.",Design considerations of a central variable-flow chilled-water plant,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+221035,"Using a generalized additive model, we assessed the influence of a suite of physical, chemical and biological variables upon euphausiid species abundance throughout the Pacific. We found that the main drivers of species abundance, in order of decreasing importance, were sea surface temperature (explaining 29.53% of species variability), salinity (20.29%), longitude (-15.01%, species abundance decreased from West to East), distance to coast (10.99%) and dissolved silicate concentration (9.03%). We discuss the influence of these variables within the context of the known ecology and biology of euphausiids. With reference to a previously published model in the Atlantic, we compare the practical differences in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. Using projected environmental change from the IPCC A1B climate scenario, we make predictions of future species abundance changes in the Pacific and Atlantic. Our model suggests that species abundance in both oceans between latitudes 30 degrees and 60 degrees (both N and S) will increase due to the temperature rise predicted over the next 200 years, whereas at low latitudes responses are likely to differ between the oceans, with little change predicted for the Atlantic, but species depletion predicted for the Pacific.",Drivers of variability in Euphausiid species abundance throughout the Pacific Ocean,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+279566,"Climate change can significantly affect the water resources availability by resulting changes in hydrological cycle. Hydrologic models are usually used to predict the impacts of landuse and climate changes and to evaluate the management strategies. In this study, impacts of climate change on streamflow of the Brahmani River basin were assessed using Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) run under the platform of Modular Modeling System (MMS). The plausible hypothetical scenarios of rainfall and temperature changes were used to assess the sensitivity of streamflow to changed climatic condition. The PRMS model was calibrated and validated for the study area. Model performance was evaluated by using joint plots of daily and monthly observed and simulated runoff hydrographs and different statistical indicators. Daily observed and simulated hydrographs showed a reasonable agreement for calibration as well as validation periods. The modeling efficiency (E) varied in the range of 0.69 to 0.93 and 0.85 to 0.95 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. Simulation studies with temperature rise of 2 and 4A degrees C indicated 6 and 11% decrease in annual streamflow, respectively. However, there is about 62% increase in annual streamflow under the combined effect of 4A degrees C temperature rise and 30% rainfall increase (T4P30). The results of the scenario analysis showed that the basin is more sensitive to changes in rainfall as compared to changes in temperature.","Streamflow Response to Climate Change in the Brahmani River Basin, India",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3318735,"Based on daily observation records at 277 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its surrounding areas during 1970-2017, drought evolution was investigated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). First, the spatiotemporal changes in the growing season of SPEI (SPEIgs) were re-examined using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope approach-the piecewise linear regression and intensity analysis approach. Then, the persistence of the SPEIgs trend was predicted by the Hurst exponent. The results showed that the SPEIgs on the TP exhibited a significant increasing trend at the rate of 0.10 decade(-1) (p < 0.05) and that there is no significant trend shift in SPEIgs (p = 0.37), indicating that the TP tended to undergo continuous wetting during 1970-2017. In contrast, the areas surrounding the TP underwent a significant trend shift from an increase to a decrease in SPEIgs around 1984 (p < 0.05), resulting in a weak decreasing trend overall. Spatially, most of the stations on the TP were characterized by an increasing trend in SPEIgs, except those on the Eastern fringe of TP. The rate of drought/wet changes was relatively fast during the 1970s and 1980s, and gradually slowed afterward on the TP. Finally, the consistent increasing trend and decreasing trend of SPEIgs on the TP and the area East of the TP were predicted to continue in the future, respectively. Our results highlight that the TP experienced a significant continuous wetting trend in the growing season during 1970-2017, and this trend is likely to continue.",Continuous Wetting on the Tibetan Plateau during 1970-2017,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+131018,"A land process model [the coupled hydrological and biogeochemical model (CHANGE)] is used to quantitatively assess changes in the ice phenology, thickness, and volume of terrestrial Arctic rivers from 1979 to 2009. The CHANGE model was coupled with a river routing and discharge model enabling explicit representation of river ice and water temperature dynamics. Model-simulated river ice phenological dates and thickness were generally consistent with in situ river ice data and landscape freeze-thaw (FT) satellite observations. Climate data indicated an increasing trend in winter surface air temperature (SAT) over the pan-Arctic during the study period. Nevertheless, the river ice thickness simulations exhibited a thickening regional trend independent of SAT warming, and associated with less insulation and cooling of underlying river ice by thinning snow cover. Deeper snow depth (SND) combined with SAT warming decreased simulated ice thickness, especially for Siberian rivers, where ice thickness is more strongly correlated with SND than SAT. Overall, the Arctic river ice simulations indicated regional trends toward later fall freezeup, earlier spring breakup, and consequently a longer annual ice-free period. The simulated ice phenological dates were significantly correlated with seasonal SAT warming. It is found that SND is an important factor for winter river ice growth, while ice phenological timing is dominated by seasonal SAT. The mean total Arctic river ice volume simulated from CHANGE was 54.1 km(3) based on the annual maximum ice thickness in individual grid cells, while river ice volume for the pan-Arctic rivers decreased by 2.82 km(3) (0.5%) over the 1979-2009 record. Arctic river ice is shrinking as a consequence of regional climate warming and coincident with other cryospheric components, including permafrost, glaciers, and sea ice.",Quantification of Warming Climate-Induced Changes in Terrestrial Arctic River Ice Thickness and Phenology,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+78794,"Persistent changes in tree mortality rates can alter forest structure, composition, and ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. Our analyses of longitudinal data from unmanaged old forests in the western United States showed that background ( noncatastrophic) mortality rates have increased rapidly in recent decades, with doubling periods ranging from 17 to 29 years among regions. Increases were also pervasive across elevations, tree sizes, dominant genera, and past fire histories. Forest density and basal area declined slightly, which suggests that increasing mortality was not caused by endogenous increases in competition. Because mortality increased in small trees, the overall increase in mortality rates cannot be attributed solely to aging of large trees. Regional warming and consequent increases in water deficits are likely contributors to the increases in tree mortality rates.",Widespread Increase of Tree Mortality Rates in the Western United States,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+214894,"Background: Weather and climate play a significant role in human health. We are accustomed to affects the weather conditions. By increasing or decreasing the environment temperature or change of seasons, some diseases become prevalent or remove. This study investigated the role of temperature in cardiovascular disease mortality of city of Mashhad in the current decade and its simulation in the future decades under conditions of climate change. Methods: Cardiovascular disease mortality data and the daily temperatures data were used during (2004-2013) period. First, the correlation between cardiovascular disease mortality and maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated then by using General Circulation Model, Emissions Scenarios, and temperature data were extracted for the next five decades and finally, mortality was simulated. Results: There is a strong positive association between maximum temperature and mortality (r=0.83, P-value<0.01), also observed a negative and weak but significant association between minimum temperatures and mortality. The results obtained from simulation show increased temperature in the next decades in Mashhad and a 1 degrees C increase in maximum temperature is associated with a 4.27% (95% CI: 0.91, 7.00) increase in Cardiovascular disease mortality. Conclusion: By increasing temperature and the number of hot days the cardiovascular disease mortality increases and these increases will be intensified in the future decades. Therefore, necessary preventive measures are required to mitigate temperature effects with greater attention to vulnerable group.","Climate Change and Simulation of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: A Case Study of Mashhad, Iran",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+713872,"Climate change and biological invasions are key processes affecting global biodiversity, yet their effects have usually been considered separately. Here, we emphasise that global warming has enabled alien species to expand into regions in which they previously could not survive and reproduce. Based on a review of climate-mediated biological invasions of plants, invertebrates, fishes and birds, we discuss the ways in which climate change influences biological invasions. We emphasise the role of alien species in a more dynamic context of shifting species' ranges and changing communities. Under these circumstances, management practices regarding the occurrence of 'new' species could range from complete eradication to tolerance and even consideration of the 'new' species as an enrichment of local biodiversity and key elements to maintain ecosystem services.",Alien species in a warmer world: risks and opportunities,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3905372,"The parameterization of thermal roughness length z<inf>0h</inf> plays a key role in land surface modeling. Previous studies have found that the daytime land surface temperature (LST) on dry land (arid and semiarid regions) is commonly underestimated by land surface models (LSMs). This paper presents two improvements of Noah land surface modeling for China's dry-land areas. The first improvement is the replacement of the model's z<inf>0h</inf> scheme with a new one. A previous study has validated the revised Noah model at several dry-land stations, and this study tests the revised model's performance on a regional scale. Both the original Noah and the revised one are driven by the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) forcing data. The comparison between the simulations and the daytime Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer- (MODIS-) Aqua LST products indicates that the original LSM produces a mean bias in the early afternoon (around 1330, local solar time) of about -6 K, and this revision reduces the mean bias by 3 K. Second, the mean bias in early afternoon is further reduced by more than 2 K when a newly developed forcing data set for China (Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ITPCAS) forcing data) is used to drive the revised model. A similar reduction is also found when the original Noah model is driven by the new data set. Finally, the original Noah model, when driven by the new forcing data, performs satisfactorily in reproducing the LST for forest, shrubland and cropland. It may be sensible to select the z<inf>0h</inf> scheme according to the vegetation type present on the land surface for practical applications of the Noah LSM. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.",Improving land surface temperature modeling for dry land of China,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1050921,"Rates of tree growth in tropical forests reflect variation in life history strategies, contribute to the determination of species' distributional limits, set limits to timber harvesting and control the carbon balance of the stands. Here, we review the resources that limit tree growth at different temporal and spatial scales, and the different growth rates and responses of functional groups defined on the basis of regeneration strategy, maximum size, and species' associations with particular edaphic and climatic conditions. Variation in soil water availability determines intra- and inter-annual patterns of growth within seasonal forests, whereas irradiance may have a more important role in aseasonal forests. Nutrient supply limits growth rates in montane forests and may determine spatial variation in growth of individual species in lowland forests. However, its role in determining spatial variation in stand-level growth rates is unclear. In terms of growth rate, we propose a functional classification of tropical tree species which contrasts inherently fast-growing, responsive species (pioneer, large-statured species), from slow-growing species that are less responsive to increasing resource availability (shade-bearers, small-statured species). In a semi-deciduous forest in Ghana, pioneers associated with high-rainfall forests with less fertile soils, had significantly lower growth rates than pioneers that are more abundant in low-rainfall forests with more fertile soils. These results match patterns found in seedling trials and suggest for pioneers that species' associations with particular environmental conditions are useful indicators of maximum growth rate. The effects of variation in resource availability and of inherent differences between species on stand-level patterns of growth will not be independent if the functional group composition of tropical forests varies along resource gradients. We find that there is increasing evidence of such spatial shifts at both small and large scales in tropical forests. Quantifying these gradients is important for understanding spatial patterns in forest growth rates.",Variation in tropical forest growth rates: combined effects of functional group composition and resource availability,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1287590,"Introduction: Direct health effects of extreme temperatures are a significant environmental health problem in Lithuania, and could worsen further under climate change. This paper attempts to describe the change in environmental temperature conditions that the urban population of Vilnius could experience under climate change, and the effects such change could have on excess heat-related and cold-related mortality in two future periods within the 21st century. Methods: We modelled the urban climate of Vilnius for the summer and winter seasons during a sample period (2009-2015) and projected summertime and wintertime daily temperatures for two prospective periods, one in the near (2030-2045) and one in the far future (2085-2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the historical relationship between temperature and mortality for the period 2009-2015, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under a changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatisation and acclimatisation to heat and cold based on a constant-percentile threshold temperature. Results: During the sample period 2009-2015 in summertime we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 30 degrees C (the 96th percentile of the series), with an average of around 7 deaths per year. Under a no acclimatisation scenario, annual average heat-related mortality would rise to 24 deaths/year (95% CI: 8.4-38.4) in the near future and to 46 deaths/year (95% CI: 16.4-74.4) in the far future. Under a heat acclimatisation scenario, mortality would not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. Regarding wintertime cold-related mortality in the sample period 2009-2015, we observed increased mortality on days on which the minimum daily temperature fell below 12 degrees C (the 7th percentile of the series), with an average of around 10 deaths a year. Keeping the threshold temperature constant, annual average cold-related mortality would decrease markedly in the near future, to 5 deaths/year (95% CI: 0.8-7.9) and even more in the far future, down to 0.44 deaths/year (95% C: 0.1-0.8). Assuming a ""middle ground"" between the acclimatisation and non acclimatisation scenarios, the decrease in cold-related mortality will not compensate the increase in heat-related mortality. Conclusion: Thermal extremes, both heat and cold, constitute a serious public health threat in Vilnius, and in a changing climate the decrease in mortality attributable to cold will not compensate for the increase in mortality attributable to heat. Study results reinforce the notion that public health prevention against thermal extremes should be designed as a dynamic, adaptive process from the inception.",Cold-related mortality vs heat -related mortality in a changing climate: A case study in Vilnius (Lithuania),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+789316,"A decline in productivity and radial growth in conifer forests from mesic areas has been associated with increased drought stress induced by climate warming. Nevertheless, studies showing how vulnerable tree species will be in response to forecasted warming conditions are scarce in such mesic habitats. Here we address this issue by analyzing how growth responds to drought and to observed and projected climate conditions in a conifer forest from northern Mexico, which is a hotspot of conifer diversity. We quantify the trends in radial growth (quantified as basal area increment, BAI) of three species (Abies durangensis, Picea chihuahuana, Cupressus lusitanica) using dendrochronology and a process-based model of tree growth. Growth decreased in A. durangensis and P. chihuahuana from the late 1980s onwards in response to warmer and drier conditions, whereas C. lusitanica growth showed very low sensitivity to precipitation and increased as temperature did. Winter-spring dry conditions adversely affected the growth of A. durangensis and P. chihuahuana. Our modeling approach anticipates growth reductions and an increase in the vulnerability of A. durangensis and the endangered P. chihuahuana against the warmer and more arid conditions predicted after the 2050s. Future warmer and drier climatic conditions could reduce the productivity and lead to growth decline of these mesic conifer forests triggering dieback episodes in highly drought-sensitive species as A. durangensis and P. chihuahuana.",Observed and projected impacts of climate on radial growth of three endangered conifers in northern Mexico indicate high vulnerability of drought-sensitive species from mesic habitats,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+419519,"A method for estimating the changes in mortality resulting from observed or projected climate changes is presented. The method avoids reliance on observed and projected changes in extreme temperatures, and also avoids the confounding effects of long-term influences on mortality such as changes in populations and improvements in medical services. The method relies on the existence of a close correlation between high-pass filtered values of a health indicator variable and a climate variable. Where such a relationship exists, the method provides a simple and robust way to estimate past and future health effects of climate trends. The method is used to estimate the effects of warming of winter temperatures on mortality amongst persons aged 65 years and above, in Melbourne, Australia. The observed warming of 0.7A degrees C over the period 1979-2001 is estimated to have caused a decline in winter mortality of 4.5%, slightly offsetting an observed increase in mortality due to an increasing elderly population. A further 2A degrees C warming could be expected to lead to a decline in winter mortality of 13%. The method was also tested on summer mortality of New York City residents aged 75 years and above. In this case a 2A degrees C warming would lead to a 2.6% increase in mortality.",Estimating changes in mortality due to climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+483015,"BackgroundInvestigating the degree to which climate change may have impacted on rice yields can provide an insight into how to adapt to climate change in the future. Meteorological and rice yield data over the period 1960-2009 from the Heilongjiang Reclamation Area of north-east China (HRANC) were used to explore the possible impacts of climate change on rice yields at sub-regional scale. ResultsResults showed that a warming trend was obvious in the HRANC and discernible climate fluctuations and yield variations on inter-annual scale were detected to have occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively. Statistically positive correlation was observed between growing season temperature and rice yields, with an increase rate by approximately 3.60% for each 1 degrees C rise in the minimum temperature during growing season. Such findings are consistent with the current mainstream view that warming climate may exert positive impacts on crop yields in the middle and higher latitude regions. ConclusionOur study indicated that the growing season minimum temperature was a major driver of all the climatic factors to the recent increase trends in rice yield in HRANC over the last five decades. (c) 2013 Society of Chemical Industry",Impact assessment of recent climate change on rice yields in the Heilongjiang Reclamation Area of north-east China,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1372082,"Aims Indicators of pending state-shifts carry value for policy makers. Predator-prey relations reflect key ecological processes that shape ecosystems. Variance in predator-prey relations may serve as a key indicator of future state-shifts. Methods Lion (Panthera leo) diet in the Kruger National Park was evaluated as such an indicator. Over the three-decade time span reviewed, variance in diet in relation to rainfall, prey abundance, management strategies and disease emergence were reviewed. Key results Rainfall patterns, both seasonal and cyclical, were identified as key drivers of predator-prey selection. However, the intensity of management in the form of artificial waterpoints overrode and confounded natural process. The results suggest that savanna systems are stable and punctuated by climatic events in the form of extreme above-average rainfall that temporarily destabilises the system. However, droughts are a cyclical part of the savanna system. Conclusion Lion prey selection did fluctuate with changing environmental conditions. Abrupt state shifts did occur; however, the ecosystem returned to a stable state. Implications State shifts in ecosystems pose key challenges to conservation managers. State shifts appear to be primarily associated with management interventions and environmental factors.",State-shifts of lion prey selection in the Kruger National Park,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+234346,"The Brahmaputra River Basin (BRB) is one of the major fresh water sources in South Asia. The current research attempts to assess impacts of climate change on streamflow of BRB using a physically based semidistributed hydrological model, namely, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). SWAT was calibrated and validated for the climate normal period (1981-2010) at the Bahadurabad station in Bangladesh, and good agreement between observed and simulated streamflow was found. The model was then applied to simulate 24 synthetic climate change scenarios (combination of perturbed precipitation and temperature) to investigate the basin's sensitivity, in terms of streamflow, under the potential impact of climate change. It was found that the basin's projected streamflow responded almost linearly with projected temperature and precipitation. Mean annual streamflow changes of the BRB due to 1 degrees C change in temperature (keeping the 1981-2010 baseline precipitation unchanged) was about 1.35%, whereas about 1.37% changes in mean annual streamflow were projected for 1% change in precipitation (keeping the baseline temperature unchanged). The results obtained using perturbed scenarios were used to develop a multivariable linear regression model representing future streamflow of BRB under the projected changes in temperature and precipitation.",Future Streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin under Synthetic Climate Change Scenarios,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1559376,"Glaciers and ice caps are known to contribute significantly to present-day sea level rise, but there are still glaciated regions where little is known about modern changes in glacier mass. One of these regions is the Russian High Arctic archipelagos which has a total glaciated area of 51,500 km(2). We have assessed the glacier mass budget of this region for a 6-year period between October 2003 and October 2009 using independent ICESat laser altimetry and GRACE gravimetry. Over this period we found that the archipelagos have lost ice at a rate of -9.1 +/- 2.0 Gt a(-1), which corresponds to a sea level contribution of 0.025 mm a(-1). Approximately 80% of the ice loss came from Novaya Zemlya with the remaining 20% coming from Franz Josef Land and Severnaya Zemlya. Meteorological records of temperature and precipitation for the period 1980-2009 suggest that the recent climatic mass budget is not substantially different from the longer-term trend.",Recent mass changes of glaciers in the Russian High Arctic,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1837951,"Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.",Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1870223,"This paper examines the impacts of natural climate variability and projected future climatic change induced by human activities upon the regional hydrological regimes of the Yellow River. The natural climate variability impact was studied by comparing the streamflow on different regional climatic patterns, such as, El Nino/La Nina, Southern Oscillation. The relationships among streamflow, precipitation, and temperature, obtained with the observed data and ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst, were used to evaluate the impacts of projected future climatic change on the regional hydrological regimes. The results indicated that the streamflow was sensitive to both precipitation and temperature and their relationship was nonlinear. This suggests that the water resource problem of the Yellow River Basin is likely to be more critical in future scenarios facing global warming. The methodology and results of the paper can be used as reference for modem river basin management to maintain the healthy life and proper functions of the river.",Impacts of Climate Variability on Streamflow in the Yellow River,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+441243,"Climate change and forest disturbances are threatening the ability of forested mountain watersheds to provide the clean, reliable, and abundant fresh water necessary to support aquatic ecosystems and a growing human population. Here, we used 76years of water yield, climate, and field plot vegetation measurements in six unmanaged, reference watersheds in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, USA to determine whether water yield has changed over time, and to examine and attribute the causal mechanisms of change. We found that annual water yield increased in some watersheds from 1938 to the mid-1970s by as much as 55%, but this was followed by decreases up to 22% by 2013. Changes in forest evapotranspiration were consistent with, but opposite in direction to the changes in water yield, with decreases in evapotranspiration up to 31% by the mid-1970s followed by increases up to 29% until 2013. Vegetation survey data showed commensurate reductions in forest basal area until the mid-1970s and increases since that time accompanied by a shift in dominance from xerophytic oak and hickory species to several mesophytic species (i.e., mesophication) that use relatively more water. These changes in forest structure and species composition may have decreased water yield by as much as 18% in a given year since the mid-1970s after accounting for climate. Our results suggest that changes in climate and forest structure and species composition in unmanaged forests brought about by disturbance and natural community dynamics over time can result in large changes in water supply.",Declining water yield from forested mountain watersheds in response to climate change and forest mesophication,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+278775,"Spatial and temporal variability in growth and climate response of trees at and near treeline was investigated in the western Mackenzie Mountains, Northwest Territories, and the Hudson Bay Lowlands of northern Manitoba. Residual ring width chronologies were constructed using cores extracted from 108 trees in the mountains and 170 from the lowlands, and compared to historical climate data. Growth of most trees exhibited significant correlations with summer and autumn temperatures, and the growth-climate relationship did not differ noticeably between trees at and distal to treeline. Most mountain trees had significant positive growth trends from 1851 to 2006 that corresponded with warming over the same period, while growth trends varied among sites and species in the lowlands. Regionally, growth of all species responded positively to warming during the 20th century with the exception of lowland Picea mariana, which exhibited little response. Growth response for most trees was age-dependent, with trees established after 1920 demonstrating improved growth and sensitivity to temperature than older individuals, and growth of most species since the 1990s was greater than any time during the last 250 years, particularly for lowland Larix laricina. This study suggests that site factors and tree age can be more important drivers of local-scale growth trends than regional climate at arctic treelines where temperature is often assumed to be the main constraint on tree growth. (c) 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.","Age-dependency, climate, and environmental controls of recent tree growth trends at subarctic and alpine treelines",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3321086,"The increased mean temperature and temperature variability under global warming can have many adverse impacts on human and natural systems. However, how soil moisture-atmosphere interaction can affect future climate change over East Asia remains largely unclear. We use long-term regional climate simulations with the Community Climate System Model-Weather Research and Forecasting (CCSM-WRF) model system to investigate the role of soil moisture feedbacks in future summer surface air temperature change over East Asia. Results show that summer surface air temperature and precipitation are projected to increase over most of East Asia by the end of 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Soil moisture feedbacks lead to an increased summer mean temperature of 0.15 degrees C averaged over East Asia, with key regions appearing over the northern part of Tibetan Plateau, Sichuan Basin, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin during 2071-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. And regionally averaged interannual temperature variability induced by soil moisture feedbacks is substantially enhanced as a whole. Regarding the spatial distribution, soil moisture feedbacks on interannual temperature variability are projected to strengthen notably over the northern part of Tibetan Plateau, the Hexi Corridor, and Sichuan Basin and weaken over the south Tibetan Plateau, southeast China, and the areas surrounding the Lake Baikal. The stronger responses of surface heat and the atmospheric boundary layer to dry anomalies than wet anomalies lead to an obvious dry-wet asymmetry of soil moisture feedbacks on summer surface air temperature over the key areas of East Asia.",The Role of Soil Moisture Feedbacks in Future Summer Temperature Change over East Asia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+442251,"We measured plant and soil carbon (C) storage following canopy-replacing wildfires in woodlands of northeastern Spain that include an understory of shrubs dominated by Quercus coccifera and an overstory of Pinus halepensis trees. Established plant succession models predict rapid shrub recovery in these ecosystems, and we build on this model by contrasting shrub succession with long-term C storage in soils, trees, and the whole ecosystem. We used chronosequence and repeated sampling approaches to detect change over time. Aboveground plant C increased from < 100 to similar to 3,000 g C m(-2) over 30 years following fire, which is substantially less than the 5,942 +/- A 487 g C m(-2) (mean +/- 1 standard error) in unburned sites. As expected, shrubs accumulated C rapidly, but the capacity for C storage in shrubs was < 600 g C m(-2). Pines were the largest plant C pool in sites > 20 years post fire, and accounted for all of the difference in plant C between older burned sites and unburned sites. In contrast, soil C was initially higher in burned sites (similar to 4,500 g C m(-2)) than in unburned sites (3,264 +/- A 261 g C m(-2)) but burned site C declined to unburned levels within 10 years after fire. Combining these results with prior research suggests two states for C storage. When pine regeneration is successful, similar to 9,200 g C m(-2) accumulate in woodlands but when tree regeneration fails (due to microclimatic stress or short fire return intervals), ecosystem C storage of similar to 4,000 g C m(-2) will occur in the resulting shrublands.",Plant and soil carbon accumulation following fire in Mediterranean woodlands in Spain,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1483723,"The 2007 wildfire season in southern California burned over 1,000,000 ac (similar to 400,000 ha) and included several megafires. We use the 2007 fires as a case study to draw three major lessons about wildfires and wildfire complexity in southern California. First, the great majority of large fires in southern California occur in the autumn under the influence of Santa Ana windstorms. These fires also cost the most to contain and cause the most damage to life and property, and the October 2007 fires were no exception because thousands of homes were lost and seven people were killed. Being pushed by wind gusts over 100 kph, young fuels presented little barrier to their spread as the 2007 fires reburned considerable portions of the area burned in the historic 2003 fire season. Adding to the size of these fires was the historic 2006-2007 drought that contributed to high dead fuel loads and long distance spotting. As in 2003, young chaparral stands and fuel treatments were not reliable barriers to fire in October 2007. Second, the Zaca Fire in July and August 2007 showed that other factors besides high winds can sometimes combine to create conditions for large fires in southern California. Spring and summer fires in southern California chaparral are usually easily contained because of higher fuel moisture and the general lack of high winds. However, the Zaca Fire burned in a remote wilderness area of rugged terrain that made access difficult. In addition, because of its remoteness, anthropogenic ignitions have been low and stand age and fuel loads were high. Coupled with this was severe drought that year that generated fuel moisture levels considerably below normal for early summer. A third lesson comes from 2007 conifer forest fires in the southern California mountains. In contrast to lower elevation chaparral, fire suppression has led to major increases in conifer forest fuels that can lead to unnaturally severe fires when ignitions escape control. The Slide and Grass Valley Fires of October 2007 occurred in forests that had been subject to extensive fuel treatment, but fire control was complicated by a patchwork of untreated private properties and mountain homes built of highly flammable materials. in a fashion reminiscent of other recent destructive conifer fires in California, burning homes themselves were a major source of fire spread. These lessons suggest that the most important advances in fire safety in this region are to come from advances in fire prevention, fire preparedness, and land-use planning that includes fire hazard patterns.",The 2007 Southern California Wildfires: Lessons in Complexity,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+560227,"Pavement-watering as a technique of cooling dense urban areas and reducing the urban heat island effect has been studied since the 1990's. The method is currently considered as a potential tool for and climate change adaptation against increasing heat wave intensity and frequency. However, although water consumption necessary to implement this technique is an important aspect for decision makers, optimization of possible watering methods has only rarely been conducted. An analysis of pavement heat flux at a depth of 5 cm and solar irradiance measurements is proposed to attempt to optimize the watering period, cycle frequency and water consumption rate of a pavement-watering method applied in Paris over the summer of 2013. While fine-tuning of the frequency can be conducted on the basis of pavement heat flux observations, the watering rate requires a heat transfer analysis based on a relation established between pavement heat flux and solar irradiance during pavement insolation. From this, it was found that watering conducted during pavement insolation could be optimized to 30-min cycles and water consumption could be reduced by more than 80% while reducing the cooling effect by less than 13%. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",An analysis of pavement heat flux to optimize the water efficiency of a pavement-watering method,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+382086,"Since the late 1970s, the Chinese government has initiated ecological restoration programs in the Three North Shelter Forest System Project (TNSFSP) area. Whether accelerated climate change will help or hinder these efforts is still poorly understood. Using the updated and extended AVHRR NDVI3g dataset from 1982 to 2011 and corresponding climatic data, we investigated vegetation variations in response to climate change. The results showed that the overall state of vegetation in the study region has improved over the past three decades. Vegetation cover significantly decreased in 23.1% and significantly increased in 21.8% of the study area. An increase in all three main vegetation types (forest, grassland, and cropland) was observed, but the trend was only statistically significant in cropland. In addition, bare and sparsely vegetated areas, mainly located in the western part of the study area, have significantly expanded since the early 2000s. A moisture condition analysis indicated that the study area experienced significant climate variations, with warm-wet conditions in the western region and warm-dry conditions in the eastern region. Correlation analysis showed that variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature. Ultimately, climate change influenced vegetation growth by controlling the availability of soil moisture. Further investigation suggested that the positive impacts of precipitation on NDVI have weakened in the study region, whereas the negative impacts from temperature have been enhanced in the eastern study area. However, over recent years, the negative temperature impacts have been converted to positive impacts in the western region. Considering the variations in the relationship between NDVI and climatic variables, the warm-dry climate in the eastern region is likely harmful to vegetation growth, whereas the warm-wet conditions in the western region may promote vegetation growth.",Dynamic Response of Satellite-Derived Vegetation Growth to Climate Change in the Three North Shelter Forest Region in China,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+387552,"1. Extensive changes in marine communities in southwest Britain and the western English Channel have been recorded during the past 70 years. 2. Over the same period there was a climatic warming from the early 1920s, then a cooling to the early 1980s, with recent resumption of warming; the change in annual mean temperature was approximately +/-0.5 degrees C. 3. Marked changes occurred in plankton community structure; the distribution of both plankton and intertidal organisms was affected, with latitudinal shifts of up to 120 miles; there were increases or decreases of 2-3 orders of magnitude in abundance. 4. Warm water species increased in abundance and extended their range during periods of warming, while cold-water species declined or retreated; the reverse occurred during the period of cooling. 5. Climate change can influence marine communities by a combination of: direct effect on the organisms; effects mediated by biotic interactions; and indirectly through ocean currents. 6. From climate models that indicate rises of mean temperature of 2 degrees C in the next 50 years, and from the observed changes, we can expect future latitudinal shifts of 200-400 miles in distribution of plankton, fish and benthos, with extensive restructuring of planktonic, pelagic and benthic communities. 7. Species common now in the Bay of Biscay will become common in the English Channel; those presently restricted to the western English Channel could colonise the central Irish Sea; changes in community structure could lead to lower abundances of infaunal benthos and fish. 8. To fully prove the effects of global warming, future changes in the marine biota must exceed those recorded in the 1950s and 1960s.",70 YEARS OBSERVATIONS OF CHANGES IN DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF ZOOPLANKTON AND INTERTIDAL ORGANISMS IN THE WESTERN ENGLISH-CHANNEL IN RELATION TO RISING SEA TEMPERATURE,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+486057,"The paper provides a background for the need to address climate change globally. In particular, it shows how the UK has addressed and is approaching the implications of climate change especially for its deemed critical infrastructure and the civil engineering profession. In addition, it sets out UK government responses, legislation background and policy decisions with regard to risk and infrastructure adaptation. It highlights some worldwide examples of climate change issues and recent severe events in the UK, such as storms, high winds, flooding, high and low temperatures and their costly consequences. Reference is made to historical and recent severe weather events and consequences leading to proposed actions for the adaptation of critical infrastructure in the transport, utilities and energy sectors. A description of current UK research programmes addressing climate change issues is included. An outline of how the UK insurance and financial sectors have built climate change into their business operations is also given.",The UK response to the challenge of climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+223463,"Climate change is already being experienced in the Arctic with implications for ecosystems and the communities that depend on them. This paper argues that an assessment of community Vulnerability to climate change requires knowledge of past experience with climate conditions, responses to climatic variations, future climate change projections, and non-climate factors that influence people's Susceptibility and adaptive capacity. The paper documents and describes exposure sensitivities to climate change experienced in the community of Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories and the adaptive strategies employed. It is based on collaborative research involving semi-structured interviews, secondary Sources of information, and participant observations. In the context of subsistence hunting, changes in temperature, seasonal patterns (for example timing and nature of the spring melt), sea ice and wind dynamics, and weather variability have affected the health and availability of some species of wildlife important for subsistence and have exacerbated risks associated with hunting and travel. Inuit in Ulukhaktok are coping with these changes by taking extra precautions when travelling, shifting modes of transportation, travel routes and hunting areas to deal with changing trail conditions, switching species harvested, and supplementing their diet with store bought foods. Limited access to capital resources, changing levels of traditional knowledge and land skills, and Substance abuse were identified as key constraints to adaptation. The research demonstrates the need to consider the perspectives and experiences of local people for climate change research to have practical relevance to Arctic communities such as for the development and promotion of adaptive strategies.","Inuit vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change in Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, Canada",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1540980,"The Chinese government has promulgated a de-capacity policy for economic growth and environmental sustainability, especially for the iron and steel industry. With these policies, this study aimed to monitor the economic activities and evaluate the production conditions of an iron and steel factory based on satellites via Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data and high-resolution images from January 2013 to October 2017, and propel next economic adjustment and environmental protection. Our methods included the construction of a heat island intensity index for an iron and steel factory (ISHII), a heat island radio index for an iron and steel factory (ISHRI) and a dense classifying approach to monitor the spatiotemporal changes of the internal heat field of an iron and steel factory. Additionally, we used GF-2 and Google Earth images to identify the main production area, detect facility changes to a factory that alters its heat field and verify the accuracy of thermal analysis in a specific time span. Finally, these methods were used together to evaluate economic activity. Based on five iron and steel factories in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, when the ISHII curve is higher than the seasonal changes in a time series, production is normal; otherwise, there is a shut-down or cut-back. In the spatial pattern analyses, the ISHRI is large in normal production and decreases when cut-back or shut-down occurs. The density classifying images and high-resolution images give powerful evidence to the above-mentioned results. Finally, three types of economic activities of normal production, shut-down or cut-back were monitored for these samples. The study provides a new perspective and method for monitoring the economic activity of an iron and steel factory and provides supports for sustainable development in China.",A Method for Monitoring Iron and Steel Factory Economic Activity Based on Satellites,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1496216,"Severe hydrological droughts in the Amazon have generally been associated with strong El Nino events. More than 100 years of stage record at Manaus harbour confirms that minimum water levels generally coincide with intense warming in the tropical Pacific sea waters. During 2005, however, the Amazon experienced a severe drought which was not associated with an El Nino event. Unless what usually occurs during strong El Nino events, when negative rainfall anomalies usually affect central and eastern Amazon drainage basin; rainfall deficiencies in the drought of 2005 were spatially constrained to the west and southwest of the basin. In spite of this, discharge stations at the main-stem recorded minimum water levels as low as those observed during the basin-wide 1996-1997 El Nino-related drought. The analysis of river discharges along the main-stem and major tributaries during the drought of 2004-2005 revealed that the recession on major tributaries began almost simultaneously. This was not the case in the 1996-1997 drought, when above-normal contribution of some tributaries for a short period during high water was crucial to partially counterbalance high discharge deficits of the other tributaries. Since time-lagged contributions of major tributaries are fundamental to damp the extremes in the main-stem, an almost coincident recession in almost all tributaries caused a rapid decrease in water discharges during the 2005 event. Copyright. (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",The droughts of 1996-1997 and 2004-2005 in Amazonia: hydrological response in the river main-stem,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+682989,"This study examines current trends and future changes in five daily air-temperature derived proxy indices for freshwater ice regimes. The indices are autumn 0 degrees C isotherm date (autumn I-0), spring 0 degrees C isotherm date (spring I-0), winter duration (WD), maximum annual accumulated freezing degree-days (AFDD), and mid-winter thaw frequency. A total of 127 meteorological stations distributed across Fennoscandia (Norway, Sweden, and Finland) have been used to derive the indices for the contemporary period 1961-2010. Results show overall trends towards later autumn I-0 and stronger trends towards earlier spring I-0. Altogether, WD was shortened by a regional average of -5.2 +/- 2.9 days per decade, the reduction being significant at 5% level in 71 stations. AFDD decreased in all the 127 stations with a regional average of -57 +/- 35 degrees C-days per decade. The impact of future warming on the indices was investigated using climate signals from the IPCC's A1B emissions scenario. The results showed that WD will shorten by an average of 36 days in 2041-2070 and by an average of 51 days in 2071-2100. The ecological and socio-economic impacts of the observed and future changes in the indices are qualitatively evaluated.",Contemporary trends and future changes in freshwater ice conditions: inference from temperature indices,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+424038,These projected results confirm us that 'adaptation in coastal zones' in global warming issue should be effective in natural population growth and also effective in rising sea level rise which will become significant in the latter half of the century.,Global vulnerability projection on storm surges due to tropical cyclones,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+54627,"Many high-mountain environments of the world have seen dramatic changes in the past years and decades. Glaciers are retreating and downwasting, often at a dramatically fast pace, leaving large amounts of potentially unstable debris, moraines and rock slopes behind. Although in the main invisible to the eye of an observer, permafrost, i.e. rock and debris with permanent zero or subzero temperatures, is thawing. Several slopes have become unstable and landslides potentially related to permafrost degradation have received wide-ranging attention from both scientists and the media. A number of those landslides can be related to the effects of recent changes in the cryosphere, which are ultimately driven by changes in climatic parameters, in particular temperature and precipitation. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, The Geologists' Association & The Geological Society of London.","Ice thawing, mountains falling-are alpine rock slope failures increasing",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+396649,"Water-resource management should maintain ecological condition, including population viabilities of aquatic taxa. Many arid and semi-arid regions have experienced elevated water regulation and face drying and warming climates. We combined stochastic, population dynamics models for four fish species with differing life histories with simulated regulated and unregulated flow regimes to assess the relative robustness of fish population persistence to different scenarios of climate change and water management. Water regulation had a larger effect than differences in climate, negatively affecting one species through increased summer flows, and stabilizing population trajectories for two species that were sensitive to cease-to-flow events; the other species was insensitive to regulation or climate. The greater importance of water regulation suggests that management of water regulation and human use can be used to insulate fish, to some degree, from the effects of future climate change. General deductions from our results, such as the importance of inter-annual variability and the application of demographic modelling tools, are readily transferable to other systems. Synthesis and applications. Our scenario-based approach was able to assess the population-level effects of multiple concurrent stressors and represents an effective framework for identifying management strategies that are robust to uncertainty in future environments.",Identifying effective water-management strategies in variable climates using population dynamics models,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3313116,"Spring ephemerals in the Central Appalachians are a key component of deciduous forest communities and can be indicators of shifting phenology due to climate changes in this ecosystem. The objectives of this study were to (1) determine if there have been any changes in date of flowering for the Cutleaf Toothwort (Cardamine concatenata) and Yellow Trout Lily (Erythronium americanum) in West Virginia over the last 111 years; (2) determine which climatic factors affect the blooming date of these perennial, spring ephemeral wildflowers; and (3) evaluate the effect of elevation on changing blooming dates using herbarium specimens and photographs from 1904 to 2015. Both species are widespread throughout the woodlands of eastern North America. Both species have significantly advanced their spring flowering over the last century Spring temperature was the strongest predictor of blooming date (2.91 and 3.44 days earlier/1 degrees C increase in spring temperature, respectively). Flowers at < 500 m elevation bloomed earlier and demonstrated a stronger shift in flowering date over time than flowers at > 1000 m elevations. Lower elevations, higher spring and winter temperatures, and low amounts of precipitation were associated with earlier spring flowering. This research demonstrates the plasticity of phenological response to a variety of climatic variables, the usefulness of using herbarium specimens to reconstruct flowering dates over a topographically variable area, and the contrasting effects of climate change on high elevation regions of West Virginia.",Changes in flowering phenology of Cardamine concatenata and Erythronium americanum over 111 years in the Central Appalachians,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+771397,"We provide high-resolution foraminiferal stable carbon isotope (delta C-13) records from the subarctic Pacific and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) to investigate circulation dynamics between the extratropical and tropical North Pacific during the past 60 kyr. We measured the delta C-13 composition of the epibenthic foraminiferal species Cibicides lobatulus from a shallow sediment core recovered from the western Bering Sea (SO201-2-101KL; 58 degrees 52.52' N, 170 degrees 41.45' E; 630 m water depth) to reconstruct past ventilation changes close to the source region of Glacial North Pacific Intermediate Water (GNPIW). Information regarding glacial changes in the delta C-13 of subthermocline water masses in the EEP is derived from the deep-dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globorotaloides hexagonus at ODP Site 1240 (00 degrees 01.31' N, 82 degrees 27.76' W; 2921m water depth). Apparent similarities in the long-term evolution of delta C-13 between GNPIW, intermediate waters in the eastern tropical North Pacific and subthermocline water masses in the EEP suggest the expansion of relatively delta C-13-depleted, nutrient-enriched, and northern sourced intermediate waters to the equatorial Pacific under glacial conditions. Further, it appears that additional influence of GNPIW to the tropical Pacific is consistent with changes in nutrient distribution and biological productivity in surface waters of the glacial EEP. Our findings highlight potential links between North Pacific mid-depth circulation changes, nutrient cycling, and biological productivity in the equatorial Pacific under glacial boundary conditions.",Evidence for enhanced convection of North Pacific Intermediate Water to the low-latitude Pacific under glacial conditions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1513024,"A new model for Mediterranean forest fire regime assessment is presented and discussed. The model is based on the experimental evidence that fire is due to both hydrological and ecological processes and the relative role of fuel load versus fuel moisture is an important driver in fire ecology. Diverse scenarios are analyzed where either the hydrological forcing or the feedback between fire and hydrological characterization of the site is changed. The model outcome demonstrates that the two-way interaction between hydrological processes, biology, and fire regime drives the ecosystem toward a typical fire regime that may be altered either by an evolution of the biological characterization of the site or by a change of the hydrological forcing. This tenet implies that not every fire regime is compatible with the ecohydrological characterization of the site under study. This means that natural (nonantropogenic) fire cannot be modeled as an arbitrary external forcing because the coupled hydrological and biological processes determines its statistical characterization, and conversely, the fire regime affects the soil moisture availability and the outcome of different species competition under possible water stress. The new modeling approach presented here, when provided by a proper model parameterization, can advance the capability in predicting and managing fires in ecosystems influenced by climate and land use changes.",Hydrological minimal model for fire regime assessment in a Mediterranean ecosystem,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1823064,"The environment and climate in which sea turtle eggs incubate affects how successful and viable hatchlings are. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how local climate impacts sea turtle hatchling production as well as how potential changes in climate may impact future hatchling production. In this study, we investigated the effects of five climate variables at different temporal scales on loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) hatchling production from North Florida, USA. Humidity, air temperature, and accumulated precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hatchling production, while sea surface temperature and wind speed did not demonstrate to have strong effects. Climate projections show air temperatures increasing at the nesting beaches throughout the 21st century, while precipitation and humidity projections vary between sites and projection scenarios. Due to the temperate nature of these nesting beaches, increases in hatching success for nests that incubate undisturbed (not affected by depredation and storm-related impacts) are projected for this region by 2100. This study demonstrates how different climate variables and their interactions can have a determining effect on an important marine species.",Influences of the Local Climate on Loggerhead Hatchling Production in North Florida: Implications From Climate Change,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+16414,"The dust cycle is an integral part of the Earth system. Each year, an estimated 2000 Mt dust is emitted into the atmosphere, 75% of which is deposited to the land and 25% to the ocean. The emitted and deposited dust participates in a range physical, chemical and bio-geological processes that interact with the cycles of energy, carbon and water. Dust profoundly affects the energy balance of the Earth system, carries organic material, contributes directly to the carbon cycle and carries iron which is vital to ocean productivity and the ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange. A deciphering of dust sources, transport and deposition, requires an understanding of the geological controls and climate states - past, present and future. While our knowledge of the dust cycle, its impacts and interactions with the other global-scale bio-geochemical cycles has greatly advanced in the last 30 years, large uncertainties and knowledge gaps still exist. In this review paper, we attempt to provide a benchmark of our present understanding, identify the needs and emphasise the importance of placing the dust issue in the Earth system framework. Our review focuses on (i) the concept of the dust cycle in the context of global biogeochemical cycles; (ii) dust as a climate indicator; (iii) dust modelling; (iv) dust monitoring; and (v) dust parameters. The adoption of a quantitative and global perspective of the dust cycle, underpinned by a deeper understanding of its physical controls, will lead to the reduction of the large uncertainties which presently exist in Earth system models. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.",Dust cycle: An emerging core theme in Earth system science,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1353416,"Because of sampling problems, the precipitation estimates from satellite remote sensing are aggregated over time (typically monthly) and over space. Since land surface hydrologic processes have threshold and nonlinear dependencies on precipitation, coarse-resolution precipitation observations may not be directly used in hydrologic models. Differences in the character of intermittency of precipitation, the averaged values remaining the same, can in fact yield large differences in the hydrologic partitioning and therefore in the resulting climate. In this paper an equilibrium hydrologic model is used to Study the influence of,intermittency on the way precipitation is partitioned into different hydrological quantities. The parameters defining intensity and duration of storms are varied (keeping total precipitation volume constant), and the resulting effects on the partitioning into runoff, evaporation, recharge, and soil moisture storage are determined. It is found that the character of intermittency in storm arrivals has a large impact on the hydrologic partitioning. Furthermore, investigations on the sensitivity of hydrologic partitioning on soil type and water table depth show that rainfall intermittency plays a major role irrespective of these other factors. Runoff generation, evaporation, and groundwater recharge are the three main components of the water balance. Depending on the soil type and climate, the main competition is between different combinations of these three loss mechanisms. It is concluded that the temporal structure of storms has a strong influence on the long-term equilibrium state of the hydrological system.","Forcing, intermittency, and land surface hydrologic partitioning",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1801143,"Results from applying Kendall's test to 37 stations of temperature and precipitation data, 50 stations of natural streamflow data and 13 stations of evapotranspiration data show that the Prairies have become warmer and somewhat drier in the last four to five decades. The earlier onset of spring snowmelt runoff detected by Burn (1994) further supports this finding. Results on Kendall's test on precipitation, natural streamflow and areal ET indicate that the Prairie may have become drier but the trends detected are less extensive when compared to warming trends. The correlation-distance reveal that temperature data are generally more correlated to each other than precipitation data. The bivariate precipitation versus maximum temperature test failed to detect any link between precipitation and temperature and Kendall's test on the drought duration, severity and magnitude prepared by Bauer and Welsh (1988) for two sites in Saskatchewan also shows no significant trend in the Prairie drought.",Impact of climatic warming to the droughts of Canadian Prairies,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+34078,"Recent trends of geopolymers have been reviewed from point of view of suppressing carbon dioxide emissions and recycling use of wastes. First of all, the principle of geopolymers was briefly explicated in view of dissolution properties of filler materials, metakaolin and fly ash. Then, sleeping kaolin resources, specifically in China and Tunisia were introduced. Then, application of wastes as filler mixed with fly ash was described in view of waste management issues. Finally, spreading strategies of geopolymer process world over were mentioned to make use of sulfate resistance and fire proof properties of geopolymers.",Recent development of geopolymer technique in relevance to carbon dioxide and waste management issues,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2356369,"The Murav'ev-Amursky Peninsula is one of the most densely populated and industrially developed regions in the Russian Far East and is included in Bolshoy (Greater) Vladivostok. Before its intensive development began approximately 150 years ago, the mountainous portion of the peninsula was covered by coniferous forests, with mixed broadleaved forests confined to the coastal lowlands. Vegetation was notably transformed during industrial development. The landscape evolution and development of native communities under Middle/Late Holocene short-time climate changes are of particular interest. The results allow the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic factors in landscape transformation to be determined. Integrated studies of marine and terrestrial sequences on the Murav'inaya Bay coasts form the foundation for reconstructing changes in the Murav'ev-Amursky Peninsula landscapes over the last 5950 cal. Yrs. Pollen and diatom analyses as well as radiocarbon dating provide insight into the landscape response to climate fluctuations during the Middle/Late Holocene. Changes in the depositional environments were essentially controlled by fluctuations in the level of the Sea of Japan, as illustrated by the reconstructed history of Cherepashye Lake, which formed similar to 2000 cal. Yr BP and replaced a lagoon. Several stages in this evolution show variations in the degree of connection with the sea. The materials obtained made it possible to reconstruct the environments at the time when site Cherepakha-13 came into being. The site appeared under climatic conditions similar to those of today, and the sea level was below the present sea level (Zaisanovskaya archeological culture). The people of the Lidovskaya and Yankovskaya archeological cultures settled under a climate warmer than that at present, with a sea level above the present-day sea level, and broadleaved forests with Korean pine grew on the coast. During the Yankovskaya and Krownovskaya cultural period, the climate began to cool and the sea level dropped. These changes led to deterioration of living conditions of these people. In the 13th century, when a Jurchen settlement appeared at Murav'inaya Bay, the coastal plain was dominated by Korean pine-broadleaved forests, and mixed forests were poorer in composition than the earlier forest vegetation. Additionally, alder woodlands became widespread around the lake. In the 17th to 19th centuries, coniferous tree species (and Korean pine in particular) abruptly gained in importance in the vegetation of the peninsula. Secondary oak forests became widely distributed in the 20th century due to intensive human activities. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.",Climatic and human impacts on landscape development of the Murav'ev Amursky Peninsula (Russian South Far East) in the Middle/Late Holocene and historical time,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+617231,"Although it is well established that butterfly richness is affected by climate and human factors (e.g. habitat disturbance and degradation) at different spatial scales, the drivers behind these changes vary greatly according to the geographical region and the ecology of the species concerned. It is essential that this variation be understood if trends in diversity are to be predicted with any degree of confidence under a scenario of global change. Here we examine patterns of butterfly species richness among groups differing in degree of habitat specialization, diet breadth and mobility in the north-west Mediterranean Basin, a European hotspot for this taxon. We analyze a large number of butterfly communities and take into consideration the main potential drivers, that include climatic, geographic and resource variables, landscape structure and human environmental impact at different spatial scales. Our study shows that both climatic and anthropogenic factors play an important role in determining butterfly species richness in the north-west Mediterranean Basin, but that their relative impact differs between specialist and generalist groups. At lower altitudes, water availability, a product of the interplay between temperature and rainfall, and negative effects of temperature appear as the most determinant factors. Maximum diversity was observed at mid-altitudes, which reveals the importance from a conservation point of view of Mediterranean mountain ranges. The results suggest serious population declines in specialist species restricted to mountain areas as a result of climate warming in combination with habitat loss caused by the abandonment of grazing and mowing. They also suggest negative trends for generalist species due to an increase in aridity in combination with an increase in intensification of human land use in lowland areas. Such synergies are expected to lead to rapid declines in Mediterranean butterfly populations in the coming years, thereby posing a severe threat for the conservation of European biodiversity.",Determinants of species richness in generalist and specialist Mediterranean butterflies: the negative synergistic forces of climate and habitat change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3313411,"In recent decades, terrestrial vegetation in the northern hemisphere (NH) has been exposed to warming and more extremely high temperatures. However, the consequences of these changes for terrestrial vegetation growth remain poorly quantified and understood. By examining a satellite-based vegetation index, tree-ring measurements and land-surface model simulations, we discovered a consistent convex pattern in the responses of vegetation growth to temperature exposure (TE) for forest, shrub and grass in both the temperate (30 degrees-50 degrees N) and boreal (50 degrees-70 degrees N) NH during the period of 1982-2012. The response of vegetation growth to TE for the three vegetation types in both the temperate and boreal NH increased convergently with increasing temperature, until vegetation type-dependent temperature thresholds were reached. A TE beyond these temperature thresholds resulted in disproportionately weak positive or even strong negative responses. Vegetation growth in the boreal NH was more vulnerable to extremely high-temperature events than vegetation growth in the temporal NH. The non-linear responses discovered here provide new insights into the dynamics of northern terrestrial ecosystems in a warmer world.",Exposures to temperature beyond threshold disproportionately reduce vegetation growth in the northern hemisphere,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+648546,"Crop models have been used extensively to simulate yield response to various scenarios of climate change. Such simulations have been inadequately validated, limiting their utility in policy analysis. In this research, it is argued that the performance of crop models during recent years of extreme weather conditions relative to current normals may give a better indication of the validity of model simulations of crop yields in response to climate change than performance during the full range of climate conditions (as is done now). Twenty years of the climate record (1971-1990) are separated into different growing season temperature and precipitation classes (normal years, hot/cold extremes, wet/dry extremes) for 7 weather stations in eastern Nebraska, USA. The Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC), a crop growth model, is used to simulate crop yields with each of the above weather classes. Statistical comparisons are made between simulated yields, observed yields and observed yields detrended of technology influences. Based on these comparisons, we conclude that EPIC reliably simulates drop yields under temperature extremes, some which approach the types of climate conditions that may become more frequent with climate change. Simulations with precipitation extremes are less reliable than with the temperature extremes but are argued still to be credible. Confidence in crop simulations during years mimicking climate warming scenarios appears warranted.",Improving the validation of model-simulated crop yield response to climate change: An application to the EPIC model,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+791580,"Precipitation variability has been predicted to increase in a global warmer climate, and is expected to greatly affect plant growth, interspecies interactions, plant community composition, and other ecosystem processes. Although previous studies have investigated the effect of intra-annual rainfall variability on plant growth and ecosystem dynamics, the impacts of interannual rainfall variability remain understudied. This paper uses satellite data and develops a new mechanistic model to investigate the response of tree-grass composition to increasing interannual rainfall variability in arid to sub-humid ecosystems along the Kalahari Transect in Southern Africa. Both satellite data and model results show that increasing interannual rainfall fluctuations favor deep-rooted trees over shallow-rooted grasses in drier environments (that is, mean annual rainfall, MAP < 900-1000 mm) but favor grasses over trees in wetter environments (that is, MAP > 900-1000 mm). Trees have a competitive advantage over grasses in dry environments because their generally deeper root systems allow them to have exclusive access to the increased deep soil water resources expected to occur in wet years as a result of the stronger interannual rainfall fluctuations. In relatively wet environments, grasses are favored because of their high growth rate that allows them to take advantage of the window of opportunity existing in years with above average precipitation and thus increase fire-induced tree mortality. Thus, under increasing interannual rainfall fluctuations both direct effects on soil water availability and indirect effects mediated by tree-grass interactions and fire dynamics are expected to play an important role in determining changes in plant community composition.",The Effects of Interannual Rainfall Variability on Tree-Grass Composition Along Kalahari Rainfall Gradient,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3467546,"Enhancing skin permeation is important for development of new transdermal drug delivery formulations. This is particularly relevant for non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). To address this, semisolid gel and solid hydrogel film formulations containing gellan gum as a gelling agent were developed and the effects of penetration enhancers (dimethyl sulfoxide, isopropyl alcohol and propylene glycol) on transport of the NSAID diclofenac sodium was quantified. A transwell diffusion system was used to accelerate formulation development. After 4 h, diclofenac flux from a superior formulation of the semisolid gel or the solid hydrogel film was 130 +/- 11 mu g/cm(2) h and 108 +/- 7 mu g/cm(2) h, respectively, and significantly greater than that measured for a currently available diclofenac sodium topical gel (30 +/- 4 mu g/cm(2) h, p < 0.05) or solution formulation (44 +/- 6 mu g/cm(2) h, p < 0.05) under identical conditions. Over 24 h diclofenac transport from the solid hydrogel film was greater than that measured for any new or commercial diclofenac formulation. Entrapment of temperature-responsive nanogels within the solid hydrogel film provides temperature-activated prolonged release of diclofenac. Diclofenac transport was minimal at 22 degrees C, when diclofenac is entrapped within temperature-responsive nanogels incorporated into the solid hydrogel film, but increased 6-fold when the temperature was increased to skin surface temperature of 32 degrees C. These results demonstrate the feasibility of the semisolid gel and solid hydrogel film formulations that can include thermo-responsive nanogels for development of transdermal drug formulations with adjustable drug transport kinetics. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Development of gellan gum containing formulations for transdermal drug delivery: Component evaluation and controlled drug release using temperature responsive nanogels,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+670400,"Heat stress impacts on crop growth and yield have been investigated by controlled-environment experiments, however little is known about the impacts under field conditions at large spatial and temporal scales, particularly in a setting with farmers' autonomous adaptations. Here, using detailed experiment Observations at 34 national agricultural meteorological stations spanning from 1981 to 2009 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) of China, we investigated the changes in climate and heat stress during wheat reproductive growing period (from heading to maturity) and the impacts of climate change and heat stress on reproductive growing duration (RGD) and yield in a setting with farmers' autonomous adaptations. We found that RGD and growing degree days above 0 degrees C (GDD) from heading to maturity increased, which increased yield by similar to 14.85%, although heat stress had negative impacts on RGD and yield. During 1981-2009, high temperature (>34 degrees C) degree days (HDD) increased in the northern part, however decreased in the middle and southern parts of HHHP due to advances in heading and maturity dates. Change in HDD, together with increase in GDD and decrease in solar radiation (SRD), jointly increased wheat yield in the northern and middle parts but reduced it in the southern part of HHHP. During the study period, increase in GDD and decrease in SRD had larger impacts on yield than change in HDD. However, with climate warming of 2 degrees C, damage of heat stress on yield may offset a large portion of the benefits from increases in RGD and GDD, and eventually result in net negative impacts on yield in the northern part of HHHP. Our study showed that shifts in cultivars and wheat production system dynamics in the past three decades reduced heat stress impacts in the HHHP. The insights into crop response and adaptation to climate change and climate extremes provide excellent evidences and basis for improving climate change impact study and designing adaptation measures for the future. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Heat stress impacts on wheat growth and yield were reduced in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China in the past three decades,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+774323,"Tree populations at the equatorward edge of their distribution are predicted to respond to increased temperature and drought with declining performance. Empirical studies of Fagus sylvatica L., one of the most studied tree species in Europe, have broadly supported these predictions. Using a network of tree ring chronologies from northern Greece, we showed that growth in populations of this species at their southeast distribution limit was limited by summer temperature and precipitation, particularly at low elevations. Furthermore, decadal periods of lower precipitation and higher temperature in the twentieth century were associated with multi-year growth depressions. However, since 1990, growth trends were positive across the network, despite continued dry and hot summer conditions. Growth trends were not correlated with either elevation or tree age. Additionally, correlations between growth and temperature and precipitation were weaker in recent decades. These results are consistent with another recent report from the Balkan Peninsula, and indicate that forests in this region may be more resistant to regional climate change than previously considered. (C) 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.","Increased growth and reduced summer drought limitation at the southern limit of Fagus sylvatica L., despite regionally warmer and drier conditions",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1497217,"The 2010 boreal summer marked a worldwide abnormal climate. An unprecedented heat wave struck East Asia in July and August 2010. In addition to this, the tropical Indian Ocean was abnormally warm during the summer of 2010. Several heavy rainfall events and associated floods were also reported in the Indian monsoon region. During the season, the monsoon trough (an east-west elongated area of low pressure) was mostly located south of its normal position and monsoon low pressure systems moved south of their normal tracks. This resulted in an uneven spatial distribution with above-normal rainfall over peninsular and Northwest India, and deficient rainfall over central and northeastern parts of India, thus prediction (and simulation) of such anomalous climatic summer season is important. In this context, evolution of vertical moist thermodynamic structure associated with Indian summer monsoon 2010 is studied using regional climate model, reanalysis and satellite observations. This synergised approach is the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. The model-simulated fields (pressure, temperature, winds and precipitation) are comparable with the respective in situ and reanalysis fields, both in intensity and geographical distribution. The correlation coefficient between model and observed precipitation is 0.5 and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is 4.8 mm day(-1). Inter-comparison of model-simulated fields with satellite observations reveals that the midtropospheric temperature [Water vapour mixing ratio (WVMR)] has RMSE of 0.5 K (1.6 g kg(-1)), whereas the surface temperature (WVMR) has RMSE of 3.4 K (2.2 g kg(-1)). Similarly, temporal evolution of vertical structure of temperature with rainfall over central Indian region reveals that the baroclinic nature of monsoon is simulated by the model. The midtropospheric warming associated with rainfall is captured by the model, whereas the model failed to capture the surface response to high and low rainfall events. The model has strong water vapour loading in the whole troposphere, but weaker coherent response with rainfall compared to observations. Thus, strong water vapour loading and overestimation of rainfall are reported in the model. This study put forward that the discrepancy in the model-simulated structure may be reduced by assimilation of satellite observations.",Evolution of Vertical Moist Thermodynamic Structure Associated with the Indian Summer Monsoon 2010 in a Regional Climate Model,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+249473,"Background: Although the impact of extreme heat and cold on mortality has been documented in recent years, few studies have investigated whether variation in susceptibility to extreme temperatures has changed in Japan. Methods: We used data on daily total mortality and mean temperatures in Fukuoka, Japan, for 1973-2012. We used time-series analysis to assess the effects of extreme hot and low temperatures on all-cause mortality, stratified by decade, gender, and age, adjusting for time trends. We used a multivariate meta-analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate pooled non-linear lag-response relationships associated with extreme temperatures on mortality. Results: The relative risk of mortality increased during heat extremes in all decades, with a declining trend over time. The mortality risk was higher during cold extremes for the entire study period, with a dispersed pattern across decades. Meta-analysis showed that both heat and cold extremes increased the risk of mortality. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for several days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. Conclusions: Our study provides quantitative evidence that extreme heat and low temperatures were significantly and non-linearly associated with the increased risk of mortality with substantial variation. Our results suggest that timely preventative measures are important for extreme high temperatures, whereas several days' protection should be provided for extreme low temperatures. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.",Variation in vulnerability to extreme-temperature-related mortality in Japan: A 40-year time-series analysis,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+167922,"Atmospheric warming and enhanced melting of glaciers is already resulting in changes in the glacial contribution to run-off in mountain basins around the world. The enhanced melting of glaciers leads at first to increased run-off and discharge peaks and an increased melt season, while in the longer time frame glacier wasting can be so severe that it results in decreased run-off. Glacier basins with a decreasing run-off trend have been observed in south-central British Columbia, at low elevations in the Swiss Alps and in the central Andes of Chile, which is probably a combined effect of reduced melt from seasonal snow cover as the snow line rises, and relevant glacier area losses. In contrast, significant run-off increases are reported in Alberta, north-western British Columbia and Yukon in Canada, in highly glacierized basins in the Swiss and Austrian Alps, the Tianshan Mountains and Tibet in central Asia and in the tropical Andes of Peru. The run-off increase within these basins is closely related to observed temperature rise, indicating that there is an unequivocal signal of enhanced glacier melting under the present warming trends. In future warming scenarios, glacier run-off should start to decrease even in high-altitude basins, affecting water availability. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Detection of changes in glacial run-off in alpine basins: examples from North America, the Alps, central Asia and the Andes",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+2343743,"More than 70,000 large dams have been built worldwide. With growing water stress and demand for energy, this number will continue to increase in the foreseeable future. Damming greatly modifies the ecological functioning of river systems. In particular, dam reservoirs sequester nutrient elements and, hence, reduce downstream transfer of nutrients to floodplains, lakes, wetlands, and coastal marine environments. Here, we quantify the global impact of dams on the riverine fluxes and speciation of the limiting nutrient phosphorus (P), using a mechanistic modeling approach that accounts for the in-reservoir biogeochemical transformations of P. According to the model calculations, the mass of total P (TP) trapped in reservoirs nearly doubled between 1970 and 2000, reaching 42 Gmol y(-1), or 12% of the global river TP load in 2000. Because of the current surge in dam building, we project that by 2030, about 17% of the global river TP load will be sequestered in reservoir sediments. The largest projected increases in TP and reactive P (RP) retention by damming will take place in Asia and South America, especially in the Yangtze, Mekong, and Amazon drainage basins. Despite the large P retention capacity of reservoirs, the export of RP from watersheds will continue to grow unless additional measures are taken to curb anthropogenic P emissions.",Global phosphorus retention by river damming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+447661,"Recent decreases in Arctic sea ice cover and the probability of continued decreases have raised the question of how reduced Arctic sea ice cover will influence extrapolar climate. Using a fully coupled earth system model, we generate one possible future Arctic sea ice distribution. We use this ""future'' sea ice distribution and the corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to run a fixed SST and ice concentration experiment with the goal of determining direct climate responses to the reduction in Arctic sea ice that is projected to occur in the next 50 years. Our results indicate that future reductions in Arctic sea ice cover could significantly reduce available water in the American west and highlight the fact that the most severe impacts of future climate change will likely be at a regional scale.",Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+515706,"This study evaluates the impacts of future land use changes on flooding in the Kansas River basin. It also describes the impacts of wetlands on flood reduction. The study presents Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) based runoff modeling and Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) based flood analysis results for SCS 100-year 24 h design storms over the next 30 years. Land use changes in the basin mainly consist of gradual urbanization and densification from low to high intensity urban development by 2040. The models were calibrated and validated for past events and then run for future land use scenarios (2020, 2030, and 2040). The future land use scenarios were developed using GIS. Results demonstrate an appreciable increase in peak discharge and flood inundation extents for the future scenarios. From the baseline scenario to the 2040 scenario, for the different storms, there was a 10% to 19% increase in peak discharge, a 2% to 7% increase in water elevations, and a 5% to 8% increase in inundation area. A considerable reduction in peak discharges and inundation extents was achieved after the wetland area was increased to 6%, 8%, and 10% from the original 5% for the 2020, 2030, and 2040 scenarios, respectively. There was a 12% to 18% decrease in peak discharge, a 1% to 15% decrease in water elevations, and a 15% to 19% decrease in inundation area. This research demonstrates the importance of including wetlands in designing flood mitigation alternatives.",URBANIZATION IMPACTS ON FLOODING IN THE KANSAS RIVER BASIN AND EVALUATION OF WETLANDS AS A MITIGATION MEASURE,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2320760,"Glacial retreat and the thawing of permafrost due to climate warming have altered the hydrological cycle in cryospheric-dominated watersheds. In this study, we analysed the impacts of climate change on the water budget for the upstream of the Shule River Basin on the northeast Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that temperature and precipitation increased significantly during 1957-2010 in the study area. The hydrological cycle in the study area has intensified and accelerated under recent climate change. The average increasing rate of discharge in the upstream of the Shule River Basin was 7.9 x 10(6) m(3)/year during 1957-2010. As the mean annual glacier mass balance lost -62.4 mm/year, the impact of glacier discharge on river flow has increased, especially after the 2000s. The contribution of glacier melt to discharge was approximately 187.99 x 10(8) m(3) or 33.4% of the total discharge over the study period. The results suggested that the impact of warming overcome the effect of precipitation increase on run-off increase during the study period. The evapotranspiration (ET) increased during 1957-2010 with a rate of 13.4 mm/10 years. On the basis of water balance and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and the Global Land Data Assimilation System data, the total water storage change showed a decreasing trend, whereas groundwater increased dramatically after 2006. As permafrost has degraded under climate warming, surface water can infiltrate deep into the ground, thus changing both the watershed storage and the mechanisms of discharge generation. Both the change in terrestrial water storage and changes in groundwater have had a strong control on surface discharge in the upstream of the Shule River Basin. Future trends in run-off are forecasted based on climate scenarios. It is suggested that the impact of warming will overcome the effect of precipitation increase on run-off in the study area. Further studies such as this will improve understanding of water balance in cold high-elevation regions.","Understanding changes in the water budget driven by climate change in cryospheric-dominated watershed of the northeast Tibetan Plateau, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+421909,"Studies on Fagus sylvatica show that growth in populations toward the southern limit of this species' distribution is limited strongly by drought. Warming temperatures in the Mediterranean region are expected to exacerbate drought where they are not accompanied by increases in precipitation. We studied levels of annual growth in mature F. sylvatica trees over the last half-century in the Montseny Mountains in Catalonia (northeast Spain). Our results show significantly lower growth of mature trees at the lower limit of this species' distribution when compared with trees at higher altitudes. Growth at the lower Fagus limit is characterized by a rapid recent decline starting in approximately 1975. By 2003, growth of mature trees had fallen by 49% when compared with predecline levels. This is not an age-related phenomenon, nor is it seen in comparable populations at higher altitudes. Analysis of climate-growth relationships suggests that the observed decline in growth is a result of warming temperatures and that, as precipitation in the region has not increased, precipitation is now insufficient to ameliorate the negative effects of increased temperatures on tree growth. As the climate-response of the studied forest is comparable with that of F. sylvatica forests in other southern European regions, it is possible that this growth decline is a more widespread phenomenon. Warming temperatures may lead to a rapid decline in the growth of range-edge populations and a consequent retreat of the species distribution in southern Europe. Assessment of long-term growth trends across the southern range edge of F. sylvatica therefore merits further attention.",Rapid climate change-related growth decline at the southern range edge of Fagus sylvatica,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+550570,"The atolls of the Chagos Archipelago occupy a key location in the central Indian Ocean, in biogeographical terms. They are remote and largely uninhabited, and its reefs have almost completely escaped most forms of direct human impact. Despite this, there has been a marked decline in their coral cover over the last 20 years. In particular, live coral cover fell markedly following the warm sea-water episode of 1998, such that on seaward reefs of all six Chagos atolls, only 12% of the substrate is now living coral compared with 50-75% before the warming event. On seaward reefs, 40% of the substrate is now covered by dead coral, and another 40% by unidentifiable dead coral and bare substrate. Lagoonal reefs fared better than seaward reefs, but still lost half of their corals over the last year. All reefs now have large quantities of mobile, dead coral fragments which may inhibit new recruitment and growth. Weather data have been recorded in Chagos since 1973. Statistically significant trends include a 1 degrees C rise in mean air temperature over 25 years, and a 2 degrees C rise in the warmest 95 percentile temperature. At the same time there has been a fall in mean annual pressure, a reduction in cloud cover, and winds have become more variable. Fourier analysis of temperature data shows several cycles of 2 years or longer, which when combined indicate a greater climate variability today compared with 25 years ago. Periods of higher temperatures coincide with several previous El Nino events and other climatic records of warming. Although the latest warming of 1998 is responsible for the recent mass coral mortality, it is seen to be a severe continuation of a longer trend, which if continued leads to a poor prognosis for rapid recovery.","Coral decline and weather patterns over 20 years in the Chagos Archipelago, central Indian Ocean",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2089982,"A new quantitative coastal land gained-and-lost method uses image analysis of topographic maps and Landsat thematic mapper short-wave infrared data to document accelerated coastal land loss and thermokarst lake expansion and drainage. The data span 1955-2005 along the Beaufort Sea coast north of Teshekpuk Lake in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. Some areas have undergone as much as 0.9 kin of coastal erosion in the past 50 yr. Land loss attributed to coastal erosion more than doubled, from 0.48 km(2) yr(-1) during 1955-1985 to 1.08 km(2) yr(-1) during 1985-2005. Coastal erosion has breached thermokarst lakes, causing initial draining of the lakes followed by marine flooding. Although inland thermokarst lakes show some uniform expansion, lakes breached by coastal erosion display lake expansion several orders of magnitude greater than inland lakes.",Quantitative remote sensing study indicates doubling of coastal erosion rate in past 50 yr along a segment of the Arctic coast of Alaska,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+29636,"Recent changes have been observed in South African marine ecosystems. The main pressures on these ecosystems are fishing, climate change, pollution, ocean acidification and mining. The best long-term datasets are for trends in fishing pressures but there are many gaps, especially for non-commercial species. Fishing pressures have varied over time, depending on the species being caught. Little information exists for trends in other anthropogenic pressures. Field observations of environmental variables are limited in time and space. Remotely sensed satellite data have improved spatial and temporal coverage but the time-series are still too short to distinguish long-term trends from interannual and decadal variability. There are indications of recent cooling on the West and South coasts and warming on the East Coast over a period of 20-30 years. Oxygen concentrations on the West Coast have decreased over this period. Observed changes in offshore marine communities include southward and eastward changes in species distributions, changes in abundance of species, and probable alterations in foodweb dynamics. Causes of observed changes are difficult to attribute. Full understanding of marine ecosystem change requires ongoing and effective data collection, management and archiving, and coordination in carrying out ecosystem research.",Reviewing evidence of marine ecosystem change off South Africa,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1376586,"The ecosystems of alpine snowbed habitats are reviewed with emphasis on ecosystem functioning and capability to adapt to current and predicted global change. Snowbeds form in topographic depressions that accumulate large amounts of snow during the winter months, and the final snowmelt does not occur until late in the growing season. Many species preferentially grow in snowbed habitats and some of these are even restricted to these habitats. In this review we identify several ecosystem services which snowbeds provide to the alpine landscape. For instance, snowbeds provide a steady water and nutrient supply to adjacent plant communities and offer newly emerged high-quality food for herbivores late in the growing season. We also propose that alpine snowbeds are much more productive than earlier thought, especially when the very short growing season and often high grazing pressure are taken fully into account. Furthermore, we propose that bryophytes and graminoids (grasses, sedges, and rushes) probably will be most negatively impacted by global change, and the snowbed plant communities will be invaded by species from adjacent plant communities, especially by shrubs and boreal species. As snowbed plants have special growth conditions, their sensitivity and ability to respond rapidly to changes in annual snowfall patterns make snowbed communities particularly vulnerable in a warmer climate, and thereby sensitive indicators of global change.",Ecology of alpine snowbeds and the impact of global change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1277525,"Aim The Caucasus is a global biodiversity hotspot that includes a wide diversity of temperate forests, from xeric to mesic and rain forest. Little is known about their vulnerability to climate change. We aimed to identify the major climate constraints on tree growth. Location Time period Western Caucasus of Georgia, Russia and Turkey (40-43 degrees N, 41-43 degrees E). Twentieth century. Major taxa studied Methods Trees, angiosperms and gymnosperms. We used a new network of 35 tree-ring width chronologies from four angiosperm and four gymnosperm species across an elevational gradient of > 2,000 m. We used correlations to identify the major climate factors (temperature, precipitation and drought) at monthly and seasonal scales affecting tree growth and to assess whether their effects change over time. To explore common response patterns among species, we used self-organizing maps, a type of artificial neural network. Results Main conclusion Spring or summer drought reduced radial growth of most tree species, despite large differences in elevation. As expected, drought was particularly detrimental at warm, low-elevation sites. Besides drought, growth of conifers at high elevations was also limited by cold winters and summers. Important species-specific climate-growth responses were also evident. In general, climate-growth relationships were stable over time, except at some cold-limited sites, where positive responses to summer and winter temperatures have diminished over the last few decades. Growth responses to precipitation and drought among species were more similar than they were to temperature, even at humid sites, providing further evidence of drought vulnerability in mesic forests. The productivity of high-elevation conifer forests, limited by summer drought and low temperatures, will depend on the balance between temperature and precipitation. Given that climate change is expected to induce larger climatic gradients in the region, the potential reduction of forest cover at a regional scale would make the conservation of these mesic forests more essential.",Pervasive effects of drought on tree growth across a wide climatic gradient in the temperate forests of the Caucasus,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3929547,"At the beginning, ultrasonics in the field of medicine was oriented to applications in therapy rather than diagnosis, and its heating and dissociation effects were used on biological tissues. We call ultrasonic therapy to the use of high-intensity ultrasounds in order to induce changes in the state of the tissue by means of their thermal and other effects. Hyperthermia is a relatively new therapy cancer treatment. Its effects are obtained by increasing the temperature range in the tumor target up to 42-45 °C. When the rate of body temperature increment exceeds the ability of the regulation system to dissipate the heat, the cells die. The cells of a solid cancerous tumor are even more sensitive to heat than normal cells. For this therapy to be effective, the temperature increase must be maintained between 30 to 60 minutes per treatment, and it is usually preceded or followed by conventional oncology treatments such as radiotherapy or chemotherapy. The clinical results obtained by several clinical researchers are encouraging for the treatment of some kinds of tumors. The heating of cells induces conformational changes of certain proteins that depend on pH values. These conformational changes lead to alteration of multimolecular structures like cytoskeleton, membranes and also some structures in the cell nucleus. Metabolic changes like the increase of metabolic rates, lactate rates and the decrease of pH are also induced by heat. These conformational and metabolic changes lead to alteration of the microenvironment in tumors and has an impact on cellular death induced by heat [1]. The heating of cancerous tissues can be accomplished by several means, like electromagnetic and ultrasonic radiation among others. Electromagnetic radiation can be used to treat small tumors located in relatively homogeneous tissue regions such as breast, brain, and perhaps the soft tissue regions of the head and neck; yet, some hyperthermia treatments may bebest executed by using ultrasound radiation. However, it is important to mention that the areas where ultrasound cannot be successfully applied are those where bone or air regions block its path [1]. Some of the advantages of using ultrasound include the feasibility of constructing applicators of almost any shape and size and the good penetration of ultrasound at frequencies where the wavelengths are on the order of millimeters. The small wavelengths allow beams to be focused and controlled. Hyperthermia systems need highly accurate control of the changes in the focalization of the field, which result from the changes in the properties of tissue after heating, as well as of the temperature increase in the zone treated. It is easier to focus energy with ultrasound than with other hyperthermia techniques, which allows that tumors located deeply within the body can be treated. The main problem, as mentioned before, is the accuracy in the method of directing, measuring and controlling the heat. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2008.",Ultrasonic hyperthermia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3951468,"From March 23rd to 26th, 1987, the city of New Orleans hosted 350 attendees, including representatives from 15 foreign countries, at the 1987 Joint Symposium on Stationary Combustion NOx Control. Cosponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the symposium provided attendees the opportunity to hear 49 papers in nine sessions covering technological and regulatory developments on NOx control in the United States and abroad since the May 1985 symposium in Boston. Session topics included general environmental issues, low-NOx combustion equipment (i.e., low-NOx burners, reburning, etc.), flue gas treatment, fundamental combustion research, and special issues for cyclone coal-fueled boilers, oil- and gas-fired boilers, and industrial combustion applications. Advances to the state-of-the-art presented at this symposium include: Improved and/or newly applied combustion modifications for pulverized coal-fired boilers; further analyses of rebuming, the leading combustion modification option for cyclone-equipped boilers; initial experiences with catalytic Hue gas treatment in Europe; studies of NOx control retrofit options for oil- and gas-fired utility systems; and new technology developments for coal, oil, and gas fueled utility and industrial combustors. This paper summarizes those presentations that discussed significant changes since May 1985 in areas of potential interest to EPRI and its utility members. Where appropriate, they include our perspectives on the applicability of these newly disclosed findings to utility systems. © 1987, Air &amp; Waste Management Association.",1987 Joint Epri/Epa Symposium On Stationary Combustion NoX Control,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+63504,"This paper reviews the complex impact of climate change on gender relations and associated vulnerability on the Eastern Gangetic Plains of Nepal and India. Field research has identified that gendered vulnerability to climate change is intricately connected to local and macro level political economic processes. Rather than being a single driver of change, climate is one among several stresses on agriculture, alongside a broader set of non-climatic processes. While these pressures are linked to large scale political-economic processes, the response on the ground is mediated by the local level relations of class and caste, creating stratified patterns of vulnerability. The primary form of gendered vulnerability in the context of agrarian stress emerges from male out-migration, which has affected the distribution of labour and resources. While migration occurs amongst all socio-economic groups, women from marginal farmer and tenant households are most vulnerable. While the causes of migration are only indirectly associated with climate change, migration itself is rendering women who are left behind from marginal households, more vulnerable to ecological shocks such as droughts due to the sporadic flow of income and their reduced capacity for investment in off-farm activities. It is clear that policies and initiatives to address climate change in stratified social formations such as the Eastern Gangetic Plains, will be ineffective without addressing the deeper structural intersections between class, caste and gender. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Agrarian stress and climate change in the Eastern Gangetic Plains: Gendered vulnerability in a stratified social formation,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3301667,"Tuberculosis (TB) is a potentially fatal infectious disease that continues to be a public health problem in Bangladesh. Each year in Bangladesh an estimated 70,000 people die of TB and 300,000 new cases are projected. It is important to understand the association between TB incidence and weather factors in Bangladesh in order to develop proper intervention programs. In this study, we examine the delayed effect of weather variables on TB occurrence and estimate the burden of the disease that can be attributed to weather factors. We used generalized linear Poisson regression models to investigate the association between weather factors and TB cases reported to the Bangladesh National TB control program between 2007 and 2012 in three known endemic districts of North-East Bangladesh. The associated risk of TB in the three districts increases with prolonged exposure to temperature and rainfall, and persisted at lag periods beyond 6 quarters. The association between humidity and TB is strong and immediate at low humidity, but the risk decreases with increasing lag. Using the optimum weather values corresponding to the lowest risk of infection, the risk of TB is highest at low temperature, low humidity and low rainfall. Measures of the risk attributable to weather variables revealed that weather-TB cases attributed to humidity is higher than that of temperature and rainfall in each of the three districts. Our results highlight the high linearity of temporal lagged effects and magnitudes of the burden attributable to temperature, humidity, and rainfall on TB endemics. The results can hopefully advise the Bangladesh National TB control program and act as a practical reference for the early warning of TB cases.","Delay effect and burden of weather-related tuberculosis cases in Rajshahi province, Bangladesh, 2007-2012",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+899037,"PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Much research has focused on plant responses to ongoing climate change, but there is relatively little information about how climate change will affect the early plant life history stages. Understanding how global warming and changes in winter snow pattern will affect seed germination and seedling establishment is crucial for predicting future alpine population and vegetation dynamics. METHODS: In a 2-year study, we tested how warming and alteration in the snowmelt both in isolation and combination, influence seedling emergence phenology, first-year growth, biomass allocation, and survival of four native alpine perennial herbs on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. KEY RESULTS: Warming promoted seedling emergence phenology of all four species and biomass per plant of two species but reduced seedling survival of three species. Prolonged snow cover partly mediated the affects of warming on Primula alpicola (survival and biomass), Pedicularis fletcheri (phenology, biomass, and root:shoot ratio) and Meconopsis integrifolia (survival). For the narrowly distributed species M. racemosa, seedling growth was additively decreased by warming and prolonged snow cover. CONCLUSIONS: Both warming and alteration of the snow cover regime can influence plant recruitment by affecting seedling phenology, growth, and survival, and the effects are largely species-specific.Thus, climate change is likely to affect population dynamics and community structure of the alpine ecosystem. This is the first experimental demonstration of the phenological advancement of seedling emergence in the field by simulated climate warming.",Effects of climate warming and prolonged snow cover on phenology of the early life history stages of four alpine herbs on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+90813,"Recent changes in Antarctic seabird populations may reflect direct and indirect responses to regional climate change. The best long-term data for high-latitude Antarctic seabirds (Adelie and Emperor penguins and snow petrels) indicate that winter sea-ice has a profound influence. However, some effects are inconsistent between species and areas, some in opposite directions at different stages of breeding and life cycles, and others remain paradoxical. The combination of recent harvest driven changes and those caused by global warming may produce rapid shifts rather than gradual changes.",Environmental change and Antarctic seabird populations,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+362025,"Episodes of extremely hot or cold temperatures are associated with increased mortality. Time-series analyses show an association between temperature and mortality across a range of less extreme temperatures. In this paper, the authors describe the temperature-mortality association for 11 large eastern US cities in 1973-1994 by estimating the relative risks of mortality using log-linear regression analysis for time-series data and by exploring city characteristics associated with variations in this temperature-mortality relation. Current and recent days' temperatures were the weather components most strongly predictive of mortality, and mortality risk generally decreased as temperature increased from the coldest days to a certain threshold temperature, which varied by latitude, above which mortality risk increased as temperature increased. The authors also found a strong association of the temperature-mortality relation with latitude, with a greater effect of colder temperatures on mortality risk in more-southern cities and of warmer temperatures in more-northern cities. The percentage of households with air conditioners in the south and heaters in the north, which serve as indicators of socioeconomic status of the city population, also predicted weather-related mortality. The model developed in this analysis is potentially useful for projecting the consequences of climate-change scenarios and offering insights into susceptibility to the adverse effects of weather.",Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1820643,"This paper presents the results of long-term studies on the response of mountain permafrost in the Northern Tien Shan to changes in climate. Significant warming has been observed in the region over the past 70 years. Records from the high-elevation weather stations Tuyuksu-1 (3,450 m a.s.l.) and Mynzhylki (3,017 m a.s.l.) indicate a warming trend of 0.02 degrees C/a in the mean annual air temperature during this period. Permafrost temperatures have increased at a rate of about 0.01 degrees C/a over the 40-year observation period. The effects of local factors, including slope aspect, tectonic faulting, snow cover, and human activities, on the distribution of temperature and thickness of permafrost are discussed in the paper.",Permafrost response to climate change in the Northern Tien Shan,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+28641,"Background: Previous studies examining temperature-mortality associations in China focused on a single city or a small number of cities. A multi-city study covering different climatic zones is necessary to better understand regional differences in temperature risk on mortality in China. Methods: Sixty-six communities from 7 regions across China were included in this study. We first used a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) to estimate community-specific effects of temperature on non-accidental mortality during 2006-2011. A multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the estimates of community-specific effects. Results: A U-shaped curve was observed between temperature and mortality at the national level in China, indicating both low and high temperatures were associated with increased mortality risk. The overall threshold was at about the 75th percentile of the pooled temperature distribution. The relative risk was 1.61 (95% CI: 1.48-1.74) for extremely cold temperature (1st percentile of temperature), and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.10-1.34) for extreme hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature) at lag 0-21 days. The temperature-mortality relationship is different for different regions. Compared with north China, south China had a higher minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and there was a larger cold effect in the more southern parts of China and a more pronounced hot effect in more northern parts. Conclusions: Both cold and hot temperatures increase mortality risk in China, and the relationship varies geographically. Our findings suggest that public health policies for climate change adaptation should be tailored to the local climate conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.",The temperature-mortality relationship in China: An analysis from 66 Chinese communities,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+178860,"Coastal seabed mapping is essential for a variety of nearshore management related activities including sustainable resource management, ecological protection, and environmental change detection in coastal sites. Recently introduced airborne LIDAR bathymetry (ALB) sensors allow, under favorable environmental conditions and mapping requirements, time and cost efficient collection of shallow coastal seabed data in comparison to acoustic techniques. One important application of these sensors, given ALB seabed footprint size on the order to several meters in diameter for shallow waters, is the development of seabed classification maps and techniques to classify both benthic species and seabed sediment. The coastal seabed is a complex environment consisting of diverse habitats and, thus, necessitates classification methods which readily account for seabed class heterogeneity. Recent ALB classification studies have relied on classification techniques that assign each ALB shot to a single seabed class (i.e., hard classification) instead of allowing for assignment to multiple seabed classes which may be present in an illuminated ALB footprint (i.e., soft classification). In this study, a soft seabed classification (SSC) algorithm is developed using unsupervised classification with fuzzy clustering to produce classification products accounting for a sub-footprint habitat mixture. With this approach, each shot is assigned to multiple seabed classes with a percentage cover measuring the extent to which each seabed class is present in the ALB footprint. This has the added benefit of generating smooth spatial ecological transitions of the seabed instead of sharp boundaries between classes or clusters. Furthermore, due to the multivariate nature of the SSC output (i.e., percentage cover for each seabed class for a given shot), a recently developed self-organizing map neural network-based approach to geo-visualization of seabed classification results was used to visualize seabed habitat diversity. An ALB dataset of an area approximately 20000 m(2) collected from Quebec, Canada was used. Cross-validation of the SSC approach yields percentage cover accuracy of approximately 71.7% with 16 seabed classes for a real ALB dataset, while dominant seabed class prediction based on hardening of percentage cover predictions yielded 66% accuracy for 4 seabed classes. (C) 2011 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). [DOI: 10.1117/1.3595267]",Soft classification of mixed seabed objects based on fuzzy clustering analysis using airborne LIDAR bathymetry data,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2360986,"Climate change can lead to a mismatch between resource availability and key life history events. Without plasticity in reproductive traits, that mismatch can lower fitness and decrease population size. In birds, phenotypic plasticity is frequently reported as the main mechanism to track environmental changes, but evidence for plasticity in large mammals is scarce. Using long-term individual-based data, we quantified phenotypic plasticity in 394 parturition dates of 137 bighorn sheep ewes (average 2.9 per ewe, range 1-11 parturition dates) in response to environmental drivers. Over 26years, we detected a population response to environmental drivers, as median parturition date advanced by 15days. Our study area showed temporal trends in population density, precipitation in October-November and temperature in August-November. Increasing autumn precipitation was associated with later parturition. Increasing autumn temperature was associated with earlier parturition but the effect was weak. Analyses of the between- and within-individual components of weather, climate and density revealed an individual adjustment to autumn precipitation. We detected no plasticity in response to variation in temperature and density and no variation in plasticity (no I x E) in response to any determinants of parturition date. Our results suggest that the reproductive phenology of species with long and fixed gestation may respond more to environmental drivers in autumn than in spring.Significance statementMany organisms time reproductive events based on seasonal availability of food resources. Climate change, however, can affect the timing of food availability. Organisms can change the timing of reproduction over the short term through phenotypic plasticity. Little is known, however, about how much individual plasticity in reproductive timing exists in wild mammals. We examined phenotypic plasticity in parturition date in bighorn sheep in response to changes in autumn precipitation, autumn temperature, a global climate index and adult female density. Temporal trends in these variables over 26years partly explained a 15-day advance in average parturition date. Individual ewes only appeared to show plasticity in response to autumn precipitation, suggesting some capacity to cope with rapid global environmental changes over the short term.",Phenotypic plasticity in bighorn sheep reproductive phenology: from individual to population,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+899089,"The temperature in the South Atlantic underwent an increase from 1948 to 2016, and the Brazilian coast is very likely suffering from climate change. We examined temporal shifts in the abundance of the fish fauna that inhabit shallow waters and aimed to associate these shifts with climate effects. We selected candidate species according to changes in their relative abundance over four decades (1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s) in a transition area between the tropical and subtropical regions in southeastern Brazil. Forty-seven species exhibited changes in abundance during the study period. Several small pelagic/planktophagous clupeoids (Anchoa lyolepis, Anchoa tricolor, Harengula clupeola, and Sardinella brasiliensis) reacted strongly to climate change with rapid population growth, whereas others (Anchoa marinii, Anchoviella brevirostris, Anchoviella lepidentostole, and Lycengraulis grossidens) decreased in relative abundance or disappeared. Some tropical species appear to be moving to this transition zone (e.g., Achirus lineatus, Ctenogobius boleosoma, and Haemulopsis corvinaeformis) because they appeared or increased populations. Conversely, subtropical species (e.g., Genidens barbus, Platanichthys platana, Boridia grossidens, and Trachinotus falcatus) decreased populations or disappeared, probably moving southward to more favorable areas, consistent with warming. This is the first estimation of climate change impacts on the southwestern Atlantic nearshore fishes and contributes as support for management policies.",Shifts in the abundance and distribution of shallow water fish fauna on the southeastern Brazilian coast: a response to climate change,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1868825,"Climate change has been demonstrated to affect the water budget of a watershed by altering its ecohydrological processes. This study was conducted to quantify water budget changes in Xitiao River catchment from 1960 to 2009 using a distributed ecohydrological process-based model. The result showed that rise of temperature and declines of sunshine duration, air pressure and wind speed were significant, whereas the changes of precipitation and vapour pressure failed a significance test at alpha = 0.05. The annual evapotranspiration, precipitation and runoff increased during the last 50 years; however, only the evapotranspiration trend passed the significance test (alpha = 0.05).","Simulation of the impacts of climate change on the water budget of the Xitiao River catchment, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+511939,"River discharge time series in southern South America (between similar to 15 degrees and similar to 50 degrees S) show dissimilar historical trends. In the Rio de la Plata drainage basin (RPDB) the record shows a runoff trend change from decreasing to increasing, around the mid 20th century. Independently of the seasonal variation, currently-observed discharge change in the region is mainly accounted for by increased discharge during low-flow periods. In contrast, most Patagonian rivers show a negative discharge trend, which mainly occurs in some austral summer months and is particularly significant in the Negro River. When considering the historical discharge variability in the southern part of South America, the spectral, analysis produced evidence of interannual, quasi-decadal, and quasi-bidecadal periodicities. Most rivers in the region show EL Nino-like interannual periodicities with the exceptions of the Bermejo and Pilcomayo rivers. In the RPDB, during the 20th century, interannual periodicity changed from the similar to 2 to similar to 5-year band to the similar to 5 to similar to 7-year band between similar to 1935 and similar to 1970. In Patagonia, the interannual oscillation showed maximum power similar to 1930 and similar to 1980 in the Colorado, whereas further south (Negro and Chubut rivers), maximum power appears similar to 1950. The quasi-decadal signal is strong in the RPDB, in general, and particularly in Patagonia's Colorado, which runs close to the so-called Arid Diagonal and bears this signal presumably due to the influence of the low-level jets (LLJs). This periodicity is conspicuously absent in other Patagonian rivers. Finally, a quasi-bidecadal signature appears to be restricted to the Bermejo and Iguacu rivers, in the RPDB, and in Patagonia's Colorado and Santa Cruz rivers.",Discharge trends and flow dynamics of South American rivers draining the southern Atlantic seaboard: An overview,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1628655,"Fluctuations in river flows result from diverse natural and/or anthropogenic causes. Hydropeaking, an important anthropogenic flow alteration, results from the rapid increase or decrease of water releases from reservoirs at hydroelectric power stations to meet variable demand for electrical power, thereby altering the flow regime of the river downstream of the hydroelectric power station. Hydropeaking causes short-term, artificial fluctuations in flow on an hourly, daily, and/or weekly basis. The frequent and regular occurrences of these high and low flow events are fundamentally different from natural flood and drought events and may affect fish fauna. We compared the fish species composition and fish age and size distributions in the Saskatchewan River (Saskatchewan, Canada) downstream of a hydropeaking facility with results from an unaffected Reference Site situated upstream of the reservoir. Lower fish diversity was observed in the 2 downstream sites (Sites 1 and 2, number of species=11 and 9, respectively) closest to Generating Station in comparison to Site 3 (n=15) situated further downstream and the upstream reference site (n=13). There was no difference in the age-length relationship of any of the fish species above and below the Generating Station suggesting that fish grew at the same rates. However, lower numbers of small-bodied and juvenile fish were caught downstream of the Generating Station suggesting the possibility of increased mortality, decreased habitat suitability, or altered behaviour of small fish downstream of the dam. These data illustrate potential impacts of hydropeaking power stations and has management implications.","Fish age and size distributions and species composition in a large, hydropeaking Prairie River",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+131401,"Sea-level rise presents an imminent threat to freshwater-dependent ecosystems on small oceanic islands, which often harbor rare and endemic taxa. Conservation of these assemblages is complicated by feedbacks between sea level and recurring pulse disturbances (eg hurricanes, fire). Once sea level reaches a critical level, the transition from a landscape characterized by mesophytic upland forests and freshwater wetlands to one dominated by mangroves can occur suddenly, following a single storm-surge event. We document such a trajectory, unfolding today in the Florida Keys. With sea level projected to rise substantially during the next century, ex-situ actions may be needed to conserve individual species of special concern. However, within existing public conservation units, managers have a responsibility to conserve extant biodiversity. We propose a strategy that combines the identification and intensive management of the most defensible core sites within a broader reserve system, in which refugia for biota facing local extirpation may be sought.",Disturbance and the rising tide: the challenge of biodiversity management on low-island ecosystems,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3945759,"Stable oxygen isotope records are widely used in paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic studies. These records are subject to measurement and sampling errors as well as distortions from benthic mixing and nonlinear sedimentation. The magnitudes of these various errors are examined in this paper using an equatorial Pacific piston core record through Termination II. Measurement precision can be improved by increasing the sample size or by averaging the results from replicate analyses. Benthic mixing parameters and sedimentation rate history are important when a stratigraphic record is used to reconstruct original oceanographic and climatic signals. Obtaining an upper limit on the thickness of the benthic mixed layer is the most important concern in keeping processing noise small. Mixed layer thickness can be estimated in a variety of ways, including radiocarbon dating and the use of ash and tektite layer profiles. Sedimentation rate history can be determined in box cores by radiocarbon dating, but is difficult to constrain in older records. Uncertainties in the benthic mixing parameters and sedimentation rate history combine with measurement error to yield a large envelope of interpretive uncertainty around any measured isotope signal. © 1986.",The interpretation of stable isotopes in deep-sea sediments: An error analysis case study,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+196111,"The effect of spring temperature on spring phenology is well understood in a wide range of taxa. However, studies on how winter conditions may affect spring phenology are underrepresented. Previous work on Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly) has shown population-specific reaction norms of spring development in relation to spring temperature and a speeding up of post-winter development with longer winter durations. In this experiment, we examined the effects of a greater and ecologically relevant range of winter durations on post-winter pupal development of A.cardamines of two populations from the United Kingdom and two from Sweden. By analyzing pupal weight loss and metabolic rate, we were able to separate the overall post-winter pupal development into diapause duration and post-diapause development. We found differences in the duration of cold needed to break diapause among populations, with the southern UK population requiring a shorter duration than the other populations. We also found that the overall post-winter pupal development time, following removal from winter cold, was negatively related to cold duration, through a combined effect of cold duration on diapause duration and on post-diapause development time. Longer cold durations also lead to higher population synchrony in hatching. For current winter durations in the field, the A.cardamines population of southern UK could have a reduced development rate and lower synchrony in emergence because of short winters. With future climate change, this might become an issue also for other populations. Differences in winter conditions in the field among these four populations are large enough to have driven local adaptation of characteristics controlling spring phenology in response to winter duration. The observed phenology of these populations depends on a combination of winter and spring temperatures; thus, both must be taken into account for accurate predictions of phenology.","Effect of winter cold duration on spring phenology of the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+773507,"Using station data from the United States Historical Climatology Network, we preformed a running trend analysis of temperature, precipitation and drought in the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa and Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint river basins for the time period 1895-2012 on annual and monthly timescales. Our study found that long-term precipitation and temperature trends were statistically detectible but relatively slight in the order of an increase at 3mm per decade for precipitation and a decline of 0.02 degrees C per decade for temperature. Running trend analyses for the time period 1895-2012 found field-significant and relatively large annual precipitation increases and temperature decreases between the 1950s and early 1980s associated with the 'warming hole'. The magnitude of precipitation trends for the aforementioned period was in the range of 7mm per year for precipitation and 0.6 degrees C per decade for temperature. For temperature, we observed generally decreasing maximum, minimum and mean temperatures in the 1960s and 1970s and increasing temperatures from the 1970s to present. Minimum temperatures particularly showed a strong increase in recent summer months in the range of 0.3 degrees C per decade. Trends in the diurnal temperature range showed a recent narrowing during summer and fall months. Differences in the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) did not show a strong effect of temperature on drought for this region.","Historical trends in precipitation, temperature and drought in the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa and Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint river basins",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+735733,"In Southern Ontario, the Canard River watershed is the largest subwatershed of the Detroit River watershed on the Canadian side. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was implemented in the Canard River Watershed to understand the hydrologic regime and assess the impacts of potential future climate change on the hydrology of the watershed. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow data. The Nash-Suttcliffe efficiencies of the model for monthly streamflow predictions were 0.81 and 0.83, respectively, during the calibration and validation periods. The LARS-WG, weather generator was employed to generate daily future weather data at local scale using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) outputs under SRES A2 scenario for the years 2041 to 2070. It was found from the model results that the average annual streamflow could be increased by 12% compared to that over the base period from 1961 to 1990. The results also indicated that streamflow would be increased significantly in spring and winter, but would be decreased in fall due to the projected future climate change scenarios.",Hydrologic modelling to assess the climate change impacts in a Southern Ontario watershed,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+566422,"Since the late 1990s, rising sea levels around the Torres Islands (north Vanuatu, southwest Pacific) have caused strong local and international concern. In 2002-2004, a village was displaced due to increasing sea incursions, and in 2005 a United Nations Environment Programme press release referred to the displaced village as perhaps the world's first climate change ""refugees."" We show here that vertical motions of the Torres Islands themselves dominate the apparent sea-level rise observed on the islands. From 1997 to 2009, the absolute sea level rose by 150 +/- 20 mm. But GPS data reveal that the islands subsided by 117 +/- 30 mm over the same time period, almost doubling the apparent gradual sea-level rise. Moreover, large earthquakes that occurred just before and after this period caused several hundreds of mm of sudden vertical motion, generating larger apparent sea-level changes than those observed during the entire intervening period. Our results show that vertical ground motions must be accounted for when evaluating sea-level change hazards in active tectonic regions. These data are needed to help communities and governments understand environmental changes and make the best decisions for their future.","Comparing the role of absolute sea-level rise and vertical tectonic motions in coastal flooding, Torres Islands (Vanuatu)",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2093363,"Deforestation often occurs as temporal waves and in localized fronts termed 'deforestation hotspots' driven by economic pulses and population pressure. Of particular concern for conservation planning are 'biodiversity hotspots' where high concentrations of endemic species undergo rapid loss and fragmentation of habitat. We investigate the deforestation process in Caqueta, a biodiversity hotspot and major colonization front of the Colombian Amazon using multi-temporal satellite imagery of the periods 1989-1996-1999-2002. The probabilities of deforestation and regeneration were modeled against soil fertility, accessibility and neighborhood terms, using logistic regression analysis. Deforestation and regeneration patterns and rates were highly variable across the colonization front. The regional average annual deforestation rate was 2.6%, but varied locally between -1.8% (regeneration) and 5.3%, with maximum rates in landscapes with 40-60% forest cover and highest edge densities, showing an analogous pattern to the spread of disease. Soil fertility and forest and secondary vegetation neighbors showed positive and significant relationships with the probability of deforestation. For forest regeneration, soil fertility had a significant negative effect while the other parameters were marginally significant. The logistic regression models across all periods showed a high level of discrimination power for both deforestation and forest regeneration, with ROC values > 0.80. We document the effect of policies and institutional changes on the land clearing process, such as the failed peace process between government and guerillas in 1999-2002, which redirected the spread of deforestation and increased forest regeneration. The implications for conservation in biologically rich areas, such as Caqueta are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.",Unplanned land clearing of Colombian rainforests: Spreading like disease?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1514856,"Arid and semi-arid forests and woodlands (hereafter called ""dryland forests""), in spite of their ecological and social importance, have received little attention in land change studies. Growing evidence shows that these forests have been receding at very high rates in many places, suggesting a need for a better understanding of the processes and causes of dryland forest degradation. Changes in the extent of dryland forests are debated in part because estimates of forest and woodland areas in drylands are uncertain. Causal explanations of the degradation tend to draw on the literature on desertification and tropical deforestation, and to emphasize either local or remote, and either social or biophysical drivers. This study contributes to a better understanding of dryland forest degradation as a basis for conservation policies. Firstly, we argue that monitoring arid and semi-arid forests and woodlands using area estimates may lead to an underestimation of the severity of change because tree density change often exceeds area change. Secondly, we argue that the analysis of degradation processes in these multifunctional landscapes should integrate both local and remote, and both social and biophysical factors. We use a case study of degradation in the argania woodlands in semi-arid to arid Southwest Morocco to test these two claims. We used gridded tree counts on aerial photographs and satellite images to estimate forest change between 1970 and 2007, and we tested several possible causes of change on the basis of original socioeconomic field surveys and climatic and topographic data. We found that forest density declined by 44.5% during this period, a figure that is significantly underestimated if forest area change is used as a measure of degradation. Increasing aridity and, to a lesser extent, fuelwood extraction were related to forest decline. No effect of grazing by local livestock was found. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Monitoring degradation in arid and semi-arid forests and woodlands: The case of the argan woodlands (Morocco),1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+582386,"Temperature is important to fish in determining their geographic distribution. For cool- and cold-water fish, thermal regimes are especially critical at the southern end of a species' range. Although temperature is an easy variable to measure, biological interpretation is difficult. Thus, how to determine what temperatures are meaningful to fish in the field is a challenge. Herein, we used the Connecticut River as a model system and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) as a model species with which to assess the effects of summer temperatures on the density of age 0 parr. Specifically, we asked: (1) What are the spatial and temporal temperature patterns in the Connecticut River during summer? (2) What metrics might detect effects of high temperatures? and (3) How is temperature variability related to density of Atlantic salmon during their first summer? Although the most southern site was the warmest, some northern sites were also warm, and some southern sites were moderately cool. This suggests localized, within basin variation in temperature. Daily and hourly means showed extreme values not apparent in the seasonal means. We observed significant relationships between age 0 parr density and days at potentially stressful, warm temperatures (>= 23 degrees C). Based on these results, we propose that useful field reference points need to incorporate the synergistic effect of other stressors that fish encounter in the field as well as the complexity associated with cycling temperatures and thermal refuges. Understanding the effects of temperature may aid conservation efforts for Atlantic salmon in the Connecticut River and other North Atlantic systems.",Summer temperature variation and implications for juvenile Atlantic salmon,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1333346,"Gender discrimination in academia was examined by means of a climate survey at a research university, which asked faculty about their experiences, observations, and satisfaction within their work environment. Overall, responses indicated that most faculty felt satisfied with key aspects of their environment, and many felt they had experienced, or observed, little or no discrimination. However, among those who did report personally experiencing discrimination, there were consistent gender differences across all areas. Specifically, women were more likely than men to report that they had experienced exclusion by colleagues, inappropriate sexual attention from colleagues or administrators, demeaning or intimidating behaviors from students, colleagues, or administrators, and unfair treatment in processes of hiring, reappointment, promotion, or tenure.",Gender differences in faculty experiences of interpersonal climate and processes for advancement,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+51013,"In explaining the rapid transitions associated with the Younger Dryas cooling, a reduced meridional overturning circulation has traditionally been invoked, but such a scenario has been difficult to reproduce in model studies without adding excessive amounts of freshwater to the North Atlantic. More recent Studies challenge this view and indicate that the role of an extensive sea ice cover may have been as important in promoting abrupt climate change as reorganisations of the North Atlantic Ocean [Gildor, H, Tziperman, E., 2003. Sea-ice switches and abrupt climate change. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society Of London Series A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences 361, 1935-19421. Based on glacier evidence from eastern Greenland [Denton, G.H., Alley, R.B., Comer, G.C., Broecker, W.S., 2005. The role of seasonality in abrupt climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews 24, 1159-1182] suggest that the seasonal temperature amplitude increased by about 20 degrees C during the Younger Dryas. Such a 'switching of seasonality' lends support to the idea of a fast-expanding sea ice cover, because it allows for extremely cold winters that are balanced by relatively mild summers. However, climatic interpretations based on the geometry and length of glaciers under such conditions as in Scoresby Sund is not well understood, and equilibrium-line-altitude (ELA) estimates should, therefore, be regarded as tentative. Here, we discuss the absolute seasonal amplitude during the Younger Dryas by taking winter precipitation into account and show that the changes in seasonality may have been limited to 10 degrees C. We propose that by reducing the seasonal response in Greenland compared with western Europe we better understand the hinged-door modus operandi [COHMAP. 1988. Climatic changes of the last 18,000 years: observations and model Simulations. Science 241, 1043-1052] of the polar front and sea-ice cover, where the absolute Southward migration of sea-ice is highest in the East Atlantic region. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",How extreme was northern hemisphere seasonality during the Younger Dryas?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+112325,"The presence of seasonal snow cover during the cold season of the annual air temperature cycle has significant influence on the ground thermal regime in cold regions. Snow has high albedo and emissivity that cool the snow surface, high absorptivity that tends to warm the snow surface, low thermal conductivity so that a snow layer acts as an insulator, and high latent heat due to snowmelt that is a heat sink. The overall impact of snow cover on the ground thermal regime depends on the timing, duration, accumulation, and melting processes of seasonal snow cover; density, structure, and thickness of seasonal snow cover; and interactions of snow cover with micrometeorological conditions, local microrelief, vegetation, and the geographical locations. Over different timescales either the cooling or warming impact of seasonal snow cover may dominate. In the continuous permafrost regions, impact of seasonal snow cover can result in an increase of the mean annual ground and permafrost surface temperature by several degrees, whereas in discontinuous and sporadic permafrost regions the absence of seasonal snow cover may be a key factor for permafrost development. In seasonally frozen ground regions, snow cover can substantially reduce the seasonal freezing depth. However, the influence of seasonal snow cover on seasonally frozen ground has received relatively little attention, and further study is needed. Ground surface temperatures, reconstructed from deep borehole temperature gradients, have increased by up to 4 degrees C in the past centuries and have been widely used as evidence of paleoclimate change. However, changes in air temperature alone cannot account for the changes in ground temperatures. Changes in seasonal snow conditions might have significantly contributed to the ground surface temperature increase. The influence of seasonal snow cover on soil temperature, soil freezing and thawing processes, and permafrost has considerable impact on carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the ground and on the hydrological cycle in cold regions/cold seasons.",Influence of the seasonal snow cover on the ground thermal regime: An overview,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+769035,"Several economic assessments of climate change build on the assumption that reductions of cold-related mortality will overcompensate increases in heat-related mortality at least for moderate levels of global warming. Due to the lack of suitable epidemiological studies with sufficient spatial coverage, many of these assessments rely on one particular dataset: projections of temperature-related mortality in 17 countries published almost 20 years ago. Here, we reanalyse this dataset with a focus on cardiovascular mortality and present evidence for two flaws in the original analysis, which would imply a significant bias towards finding net mortality benefits from climate change: (i) the combination of mortality data for all ages with data specific to the elderly and (ii) the confounding of seasonal effects with direct temperature effects on mortality. This bias appears to be further amplified in the integrated assessment models FUND and ENVISAGE, and related economic assessment tools relying on the same calibration scheme, because heat-related cardiovascular mortality is assumed to affect urban populations only in these models. In an exemplary calculation, we show that while FUND currently projects a net reduction of approximately 380,000 deaths from cardiovascular diseases globally per year at 1 A degrees C of global warming, correcting for the two potential flaws and assuming equal vulnerability of urban and rural populations would result in a net increase of cardiovascular mortality, with approximately 150,000 net additional deaths globally per year. Our findings point to the urgent need of renewing damage functions on temperature-related mortality currently applied in some of the most widely used integrated assessment models.",Cold- and heat-related mortality: a cautionary note on current damage functions with net benefits from climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+564133,"Changes in land use influence surface-water quality and thus present a potential threat to coastal ecosystem health. Land use land cover changes (LULCC) in the lower Eastern Shore watersheds of Maryland have been rapid in the last decade, with increase in real estate development an obvious indicator. The objective of this study was to evaluate the extent of historical LULCC in the lower Eastern Shore watershed and coastal bays of Maryland from 1986 to 2006. Land use land cover data were derived by supervised classification of Landsat TM 5 satellite imagery acquired in 1986, 1996, and 2006 using the Anderson level-1 classification system in Environment for Visualizing Images (ENVI 4.5), while LULCCs were detected in an Arc-GIS 9.2 environment. The results showed that while urban and forest lands increased by 121.8% and 8.5%, respectively, in the lower Eastern Shore from 1986 to 2006, croplands and wetlands decreased by 19.6% and 21.3%, respectively. Area covered by surface water increased by 10%, submerging mostly wetlands of 150 km(2) in 17 of the 23 subwatersheds studied. The loss of these coastal wetlands is attributable in part to the changing climate and the resultant sea-level rise and in part to the activities of the invasive rodent Nutria (Myocastor coypus), reported to be a major menace in Maryland's Eastern Shore. The declining wetlands have serious ecological health implications for the Chesapeake Bay and its watersheds for several species and thus require urgent attention. More intensive and frequent monitoring of this delicate estuarine ecosystem is suggested.",Land Use-Land Cover Changes in the Lower Eastern Shore Watersheds and Coastal Bays of Maryland: 1986-2006,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+551460,"There is increasing consensus that the global climate will continue to warm over the next century. The biodiversity-rich Amazon forest is a region of growing concern because many global climate model (GCM) scenarios of climate change forecast reduced precipitation and, in some cases, coupled vegetation models predict dieback of the forest. To date, fires have generally been spatially co-located with road networks and associated human land use because almost all fires in this region are anthropogenic in origin. Climate change, if severe enough, could alter this situation, potentially changing the fire regime to one of increased fire frequency and severity for vast portions of the Amazon forest. High moisture contents and dense canopies have historically made Amazonian forests extremely resistant to fire spread. Climate will affect the fire situation in the Amazon directly, through changes in temperature and precipitation, and indirectly, through climate-forced changes in vegetation composition and structure. The frequency of drought will be a prime determinant of both how often forest fires occur and how extensive they become. Fire risk management needs to take into account landscape configuration, land cover types and forest disturbance history as well as climate and weather. Maintaining large blocks of unsettled forest is critical for managing landscape level fire in the Amazon. The Amazon has resisted previous climate changes and should adapt to future climates as well if landscapes can be managed to maintain natural fire regimes in the majority of forest remnants.","Climate change, human land use and future fires in the Amazon",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+206032,"Analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall amounts, discharge and runoff coefficients, for monthly, seasonal and annual time steps in equatorial south Cameroon, reveals that annual values of rainfall and discharge have decreased during the years of greatest drought (1972-1973 and 1983-1984). The most significant climatic change is a modification of rainfall regime during the dry seasons, which led to a change ill the annual hydrological cycle. The decrease in rainfall during the dry season in December-February generates a decrease in the runoff coefficients during the subsequent short rainy season (March-June). Conversely, although the corresponding rainfall has not changed much during the rainy season in September-November, the discharge has increased, probably due to the fact that rainfall during the short dry season (July and August) has been much higher for several decades. This is assumed to indicate a change in climate in southwest Cameroon, also evident in Gabon and Congo. Over the Kienke basin, the progressive disappearance of he short dry season in July-August has resulted in a tendency for the two rainy seasons to merge into one.",Evolution of hydrological regimes in the equatorial area of Cameroon: an impact of climate variability in equatorial Africa?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+585540,"The objectives of this study were to estimate the effects of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in 26 regions in the south and west of China from 2008 to 2011, and to identify socioeconomic and demographic factors contributing to such inter-region variation in the temperature effect. A separate Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) was fitted to estimate percent changes in cardiovascular mortality at low and high temperatures on a daily basis for each region. The model used the smooth functions to model the nonlinear effects of temperature and humidity and to control for the seasonal factor using the calendar time variable. Given variation in the magnitude of the temperature effect on cardiovascular mortality, we employed a Bayesian network (BN) to identify potential region-specific socioeconomic and demographic factors that may explain the variation. In most regions, an increasing trend in high or low temperature was associated with an increase in cardiovascular mortality, with variation in the magnitude of the temperature effects across regions. Three factors, including per capita years of education (as an indicator of economic status), percentage of the population over 65 years of age and percentage of women had direct impact on cold-related cardiovascular mortality. Number of hospital beds (as an indicator of the availability of medical resources), percentage of population engaged in industrial occupations, and percentage of women showed direct impact on heat-related cardiovascular mortality. Due to the socioeconomic and demographic inequalities between regions, the development of customized prevention and adaptation programs to address the low/high temperatures in vulnerable regions should be prioritized.",Cardiovascular Mortality Associated with Low and High Temperatures: Determinants of Inter-Region Vulnerability in China,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+52372,"The two polar regions have experienced remarkably different climatic changes in recent decades. The Arctic has seen a marked reduction in sea-ice extent throughout the year, with a peak during the autumn. A new record minimum extent occurred in 2007, which was 40% below the long-term climatological mean. In contrast, the extent of Antarctic sea ice has increased, with the greatest growth being in the autumn. There has been a large-scale warming across much of the Arctic, with a resultant loss of permafrost and a reduction in snow cover. The bulk of the Antarctic has experienced little change in surface temperature over the last 50 years, although a slight cooling has been evident around the coast of East Antarctica since about 1980, and recent research has pointed to a warming across West Antarctica. The exception is the Antarctic Peninsula, where there has been a winter (summer) season warming on the western (eastern) side. Many of the different changes observed between the two polar regions can be attributed to topographic factors and land/sea distribution. The location of the Arctic Ocean at high latitude, with the consequently high level of solar radiation received in summer, allows the ice-albedo feedback mechanism to operate effectively. The Antarctic ozone hole has had a profound effect on the circulations of the high latitude ocean and atmosphere, isolating the continent and increasing the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, especially during the summer and winter.",Contrasting climate change in the two polar regions,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+3894382,"M 26 is one of the most used rootstocks in the temperate climate zone. However there is no clear information about the interaction between this and the commercially cultivars grown in Latvia. Two trials were established in spring of 1998 at the Latvia State Institute of Fruit-Growing (Dobele) in the southern part of Latvia. Four apple cultivars of different origin - 'Auksis' (originated in Lithuania), 'Zarya Alatau' (Kazahstan), 'Lobo' (Canada) and 'Sinap Orlovskii' (Russia) - were planted as one year old trees on rootstock M 26 in Dobele. Trees were planted at 1.5×4 m, with three replications in a leached sod-calcareous soil with pH 7.4, 1.9% organic matter, where plant available K2O and P2O5 were 149 mg kg-1 and 113 mg·kg-1, respectively. A second trial with two year old branched trees was planted in gleyic sod-calcareous soil, with pH 6.6, organic matter 2.3%, P2O5 241 mg·kg-1 and K 2O 267 mg·kg-1. Dwarf rootstocks B 9, B 396, M 26 EMLA, and semi-dwarf rootstocks MM 106, G.30 and others were compared. The planting distances were 4×2 m for dwarf rootstocks and 5×3 m for semi-dwarf rootstocks. The trees on dwarf rootstocks were trained in a slender spindle system, and as free standing central leader trees on semi-dwarf rootstocks. No visible incompatibility was found between rootstock M 26 and the four investigated cultivars. Cultivars 'Auksis', 'Zarya Alatau' and 'Sinap Orlovskii' showed good yield and growth on this rootstock. Differences between cultivars in bienniality were significant statistically. Smaller bienniality was shown for the less productive cultivar 'Lobo' and also for the productive one 'Sinap Orlovskii'. In the second trial trunk cross-section area of 'Ausksis' for trees on M 26 EMLA was higher than for trees on B 9 and B 396, little larger than trees on G.30 and smaller than trees on MM 106. Total yield of apples on M 26 EMLA was higher than on both B series rootstocks, but lower than on MM 106 and G.30. Yield efficiency of trees on rootstock M 26 EMLA was less than trees on B 9, B 396 and G.30, but close to trees on MM 106. Fertile soil and good quality plant material promoted high growth and productivity of the apple cultivar 'Auksis', but delayed bearing and increased biennial bearing.",Growth and yielding of apple cultivars on the rootstock M 26 in Latvia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2364218,"Understanding how multiple simultaneous drivers interact to influence plant demography is critical for protecting plant diversity in the context of global change. Fire is a key disturbance in forested ecosystems, but the interactive effects of fire and other abiotic and management factors on understory plants are poorly understood. Beargrass (Xerophyllum tenax) is perennial herb that provides food, habitat, and nesting material for a wide range of animals. Beargrass populations are prescribe-burned by Native American experts, and leaves are subsequently harvested at low-intensity for use in weaving. Leaves for weaving are reportedly becoming harder to find due to lack of fire and competition with commercial harvesters. To elucidate the effects of fire and its interactions with leaf harvest and abiotic factors on beargrass populations, we collected demographic data on more than 1000 individuals over three years across fire severities in combination with individual-level soil moisture and light measurements. We also conducted an experiment simulating low-intensity leaf harvest. We built mixed-effects models to test our predictions that fire would increase growth and reproduction, and that it would mediate the effects of soil moisture and leaf harvest on beargrass growth. Fire increased growth as well as sexual and vegetative reproduction, providing evidence that beargrass is fire-adapted. Leaf harvest both reduced survival probability and increased the probability of vegetative reproduction. Individual growth increased with early growing season soil moisture in unburned and low-severity fire areas but did not vary with soil moisture in high-severity areas. In sum, fire is a key driver of beargrass demography and fire interacted with other factors to influence beargrass vital rates. Understanding the impacts of changes to management and abiotic factors on understory species such as beargrass, and the ecosystem services they provide, requires attention to interactions among multiple environmental factors.","Fire, leaf harvest, and abiotic factors drive demography of an ecologically and culturally important understory plant",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+113513,"Recent changes in the Arctic hydrological cycle are explored using in situ observations and an improved atmospheric reanalysis data set, ERA-Interim. We document a pronounced decline in summer snowfall over the Arctic Ocean and Canadian Archipelago. The snowfall decline is diagnosed as being almost entirely caused by changes in precipitation form (snow turning to rain) with very little influence of decreases in total precipitation. The proportion of precipitation falling as snow has decreased as a result of lower-atmospheric warming. Statistically, over 99% of the summer snowfall decline is linked to Arctic warming over the past two decades. Based on the reanalysis snowfall data over the ice-covered Arctic Ocean, we derive an estimate for the amount of snow-covered ice. It is estimated that the area of snow-covered ice, and the proportion of sea ice covered by snow, have decreased significantly. We perform a series of sensitivity experiments in which inter-annual changes in snow-covered ice are either unaccounted for, or are parameterized. In the parameterized case, the loss of snow-on-ice results in a substantial decrease in the surface albedo over the Arctic Ocean, that is of comparable magnitude to the decrease in albedo due to the decline in sea ice cover. Accordingly, the solar input to the Arctic Ocean is increased, causing additional surface ice melt. We conclude that the decline in summer snowfall has likely contributed to the thinning of sea ice over recent decades. The results presented provide support for the existence of a positive feedback in association with warming-induced reductions in summer snowfall.","Declining summer snowfall in the Arctic: causes, impacts and feedbacks",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+375722,"Managing the contribution of forest ecosystems to global carbon cycles requires accurate predictions of biomass dynamics in relation to stand development. Our study evaluated competing hypotheses regarding late-successional biomass dynamics in northern hardwood-conifer forests using a data set spanning the northeastern United States, including 48 mature and 46 old-growth stands. Continuous data on dominant tree ages were available for 29 of these and were used as an indicator of stand development. Aboveground live biomass was significantly (P < 0.001) different between mature (195 Mg/ha) and old-growth (266 Mg/ha) sites. Aboveground biomass was positively (P < 0.001) and logarithmically correlated with dominant tree age; this held for live trees (r(2) = 0.52), standing dead trees (r(2) = 0.36), total trees (r(2) = 0.63), and downed woody debris (r(2) = 0.24). In a Classification and Regression Tree analysis, stand age class was the strongest predictor of biomass, but ecoregion and percent conifer accounted for similar to 25-33% of intraregional variability. Biomass approached maximum values in stands with dominant tree ages of similar to 350-400 years. Our results support the hypothesis that aboveground biomass can accumulate very late into succession in northern hardwood-conifer forests, recognizing that early declines are also possible in secondary forests as reported previously. Empirical studies suggest a high degree of variability in biomass development pathways and these may differ from theoretical predictions. Primary forest systems, especially those prone to partial disturbances, may have different biomass dynamics compared with those of secondary forests. These differences have important implications for both the quantity and temporal dynamics of carbon storage in old-growth and recovering secondary forests. FOR. SCI 57(6):489-505.",Late-Successional Biomass Development in Northern Hardwood-Conifer Forests of the Northeastern United States,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3893713,"The fingerprinting of historically deposited sediment has shown valuable potential for reconstructing past environmental changes over the previous &lt; 100 years. However, changes to sediment particle size distribution, organic matter content, and post-depositional chemical alterations to tracers are significant sources of uncertainty. Most tracers are also expensive to measure, creating barriers to wider adoption of the source fingerprinting approach. Sediment colour represents an inexpensive tracer which can make the method more accessible, provided that it is conservative in the environment and can adequately discriminate between potential sediment sources. The sediment provenance results derived using colour and mineral magnetic tracers are compared to determine if colour can be a reliable tracer when used with historically deposited sediment. This study also explores the usefulness of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) pre-treatment to reduce uncertainties associated with sediment-associated organic matter. Neither tracer type could discriminate between surface and subsurface sources. However, both could discriminate between igneous and sedimentary sources. The H2O2 treatment had little effect on source discrimination. There was a good agreement between source apportionment results derived using the treated and untreated colour and magnetic tracers in three of the four cores analysed. Both tracer types identified that low sediment contributions from distal igneous sources reach the catchment outlet during low magnitude floods, but distal igneous sources are important during high-magnitude floods. A poor agreement was found between the results derived using magnetic and colour tracers for one core, which was likely caused by a low rate of sediment deposition and the fine particle size distribution of the sediments when compared to the sieved source materials. Colour was a useful tracer for use with historically deposited flood bench sediments. Its usefulness is, however, dependent upon a comparable particle size distribution between sources and sediments, low sediment-associated organic matter concentrations and minimal post-depositional alterations to the sediment. The H2O2 treatment proved to potentially be an additional source of uncertainty rather than a method to reduce it. © 2017","Colour as reliable tracer to identify the sources of historically deposited flood bench sediment in the Transkei, South Africa: A comparison with mineral magnetic tracers before and after hydrogen peroxide pre-treatment",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+42632,"Drought-induced tree mortality is expected to increase worldwide under projected future climate changes(1-4). The Canadian boreal forests, which occupy about 30% of the boreal forests worldwide and 77% of Canada's total forested land, play a critical role in the albedo of Earth's surface(5) and in its global carbon budget(6). Many of the previously reported regional-scale impacts of drought on tree mortality have affected low-and middle-latitude tropical regions(2) and the temperate forests of the western United States(3), but no study has examined high-latitude boreal regions with multiple species at a regional scale using long-term forest permanent sampling plots(7-9). Here, we estimated tree mortality in natural stands throughout Canada's boreal forests using data from the permanent sampling plots and statistical models. We found that tree mortality rates increased by an overall average of 4 : 7% yr(-1) from 1963 to 2008, with higher mortality rate increases in western regions than in eastern regions (about 4.9 and 1 : 9% yr(-1), respectively). The water stress created by regional drought may be the dominant contributor to these widespread increases in tree mortality rates across tree species, sizes, elevations, longitudes and latitudes. Western Canada seems to have been more sensitive to drought than eastern Canada.",A drought-induced pervasive increase in tree mortality across Canada's boreal forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+51511,"This study uses chlorophyll a fluorescence to examine the effect of environmentally relevant (1-4 h) exposures of thermal stress (35-45 degrees C) on seagrass photosynthetic yield in seven tropical species of seagrasses. Acute response of each tropical seagrass species to thermal stress was characterised, and the capacity of each species to tolerate and recover from thermal stress was assessed. Two fundamental characteristics of heat stress were observed. The first effect was a decrease in photosynthetic yield (F-v/ F) characterised by reductions in F and F-m'. The dramatic decline in F/F-m' ratio, due to chronic inhibition of photosynthesis, indicates an intolerance of Halophila ovalis, Zostera capricorni and Syringodium isoetifolium to ecologically relevant exposures of thermal stress and structural alterations to the PhotoSystem II (PSII) reaction centres. The decline in F-m' represents heat-induced photoinhibition related to closure of PSII reaction centres and chloroplast dysfunction. The key finding was that Cymodocea rotundata, Cymodocea serrulata, Halodule uninervis and Thalassia hemprichii were more tolerant to thermal stress than H. ovalis, Z capricorni and S. isoetifolium. After 3 days of 4 h temperature treatments ranging from 25 to 40 degrees C, C. rotundata, C. serrulata and H. uninervis demonstrated a wide tolerance to temperature with no detrimental effect on F-v/F-m' qN or qP responses. These three species are restricted to subtropical and tropical waters and their tolerance to seawater temperatures 25 to 40 degrees C is likely to be an adaptive response to high temperatures commonly occurring at low tides and peak solar irradiance. The results of temperature experiments suggest that the photosynthetic condition of all seagrass species tested are likely to suffer irreparable effects from short-term or episodic changes in seawater temperatures as high as 40-45 degrees C. Acute stress responses of seagrasses to elevated seawater temperatures are consistent with observed reductions in above-ground biomass during a recent El Nino event. Crown Copyright (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Photosynthetic responses of seven tropical seagrasses to elevated seawater temperature,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+730096,"Woodfuel extraction from established woods and forests is promoted in Western Europe as a renewable energy source. Woodfuel management is mainly carried out by silvicultural thinning or short-rotation harvesting, including coppicing. Potential negative effects include reduction in habitat quality for saproxylic species. However, in some regions, habitats may be improved for species that have declined as a result of increased shading. Resources required by most of these species are more likely to be delivered by short-rotation management than thinning. Relatively little is documented on the effects of thinning intensity on ecological resources and biodiversity within European forests. Trade-offs between canopy cover, deer browsing pressure and understorey complexity are likely to occur. Therefore, interactions between thinning treatments and deer browsing potentially affect biodiversity, in the context of both woodfuel and timber production.Synthesis and applications. Woodfuel management is unlikely to deliver benefits for most shade-intolerant species unless it creates substantial areas of young-growth with low deer impacts. However, more research is needed on thinning as a potential conservation tool. Changing climate and tree diseases are creating an uncertain future for forest management. It is timely for ecologists to work with forest managers to identify how integrated forestry and deer management can deliver positive and balanced biodiversity outcomes.",Searching for biodiversity gains through woodfuel and forest management,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+53400,"Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982-2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34 degrees C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are -3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of -3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is -2.11 W/m(2) per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of -8%, -5%, and -15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.",Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1534275,"Periodic oscillations between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Basin affect oceanographic and meteorological phenomena globally, with impacts on the abundance and distribution of marine species. However, El Nino effects on estuarine hydrology and tidal wetland processes have seldom been examined rigorously. We used detailed wetland elevation and local inundation data from 10 tidal wetlands located along the Pacific coast of the United States to assess changes in flooding during the 2015-2016 El Nino and to determine decadal-scale relationships between estuarine sea-level anomalies and Pacific Basin climate indices for this region. During the 2015-2016 El Nino all sites experienced significant increases in high-tide water levels exceeding those predicted by astronomical tides, and increased flooding frequency during at least one of the El Nino subperiods relative to pre-El Nino conditions. The magnitude of positive sea-level anomalies varied by site (4-15cm), with local hot spots of high water in southern Oregon, northern California, and Pt. Mugu lagoon in the Southern California Bight. Furthermore, over the last three decades of historic tide records, there were positive relationships between high-tide sea-level anomalies and equatorial Pacific Basin sea surface temperature anomalies across the region, and negative relationships with the Northern Oscillation Index. Increases of 1 degrees C in equatorial sea surface temperature were associated with 3-5cm of increased high-tide flooding at the sites. Elevated estuarine flooding associated with future El Ninos could impact important tidal wetland processes and could be an additive stressor for wetlands facing accelerating sea-level rise. Periodic changes between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Basin affect global weather and ocean patterns, causing changes in coastal waters that can impact plants and animals. However, few studies have focused on El Nino effects on tidal wetlands. This study identifies substantial changes to wetland flooding during the 2015-2016 El Nino event using detailed wetland elevation and local tide height data from 10 tidal wetlands located along the Pacific coast of the United States. During the 2015-2016 El Nino, all sites experienced significant increases in high-tide water levels exceeding those predicted by astronomical tides as well as increased flooding frequency during at least one part of the El Nino event. Flood height anomalies ranged from 4 to 15cm on average, with local hot spots of high water in southern Oregon, northern California, and Pt. Mugu lagoon in Southern California Bight. Tidal records show that over the last three decades, high-tide sea-level anomalies in coastal wetlands were related to two indicators of El Nino and La Nina conditions. Elevated estuarine flooding associated with future El Ninos could impact important tidal wetland ecosystems and could weaken their ability to keep pace with accelerating sea-level rise.",El Nino Increases High-Tide Flooding in Tidal Wetlands Along the US Pacific Coast,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+72384,"The Amazon tropical evergreen forest is an important component of the global carbon budget. Its forest floristic composition, structure, and function are sensitive to changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and land use. In this study biomass and productivity simulated by three dynamic global vegetation models (Integrated Biosphere Simulator, Ecosystem Demography Biosphere Model, and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) for the period 1970-2008 are compared with observations from forest plots (Rede Amazonica de Inventarios Forestales). The spatial variability in biomass and productivity simulated by the DGVMs is low in comparison to the field observations in part because of poor representation of the heterogeneity of vegetation traits within themodels. We find that over the last four decades the CO2 fertilization effect dominates a long-term increase in simulated biomass in undisturbed Amazonian forests, while land use change in the south and southeastern Amazonia dominates a reduction in Amazon aboveground biomass, of similar magnitude to the CO2 biomass gain. Climate extremes exert a strong effect on the observed biomass on short time scales, but the models are incapable of reproducing the observed impacts of extreme drought on forest biomass. We find that future improvements in the accuracy of DGVM predictions will require improved representation of four key elements: (1) spatially variable plant traits, (2) soil and nutrients mediated processes, (3) extreme event mortality, and (4) sensitivity to climatic variability. Finally, continued long-term observations and ecosystem-scale experiments (e. g. Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiments) are essential for a better understanding of the changing dynamics of tropical forests.","Changing Amazon biomass and the role of atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate, and land use",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+122016,"The Hawaiian honeycreepers (Drepanidae) represent a superb illustration of evolutionary radiation, with a single colonization event giving rise to 19 extant and at least 10 extinct species [Curnutt, J. & Pimm, S. (2001) Stud. Avian Biol, 22,15-30]. They also represent a dramatic example of anthropogenic extinction. Crop and pasture land has replaced their forest habitat, and human introductions of predators and diseases, particularly of mosquitoes and avian malaria, has eliminated them from the remaining low-and mid-elevation forests. Landscape analyses of three high-elevation forest refuges show that anthropogenic climate change is likely to combine with past land-use changes and biological invasions to drive several of the remaining species to extinction, especially on the islands of Kauai and Hawaii.",Interactions of climate change with biological invasions and land use in the Hawaiian Islands: Modeling the fate of endemic birds using a geographic information system,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2352451,"The concentrations and size distributions of low molecular weight dicarboxylic acids in suburban particulate matter collected in early and mid-autumn 2002 and early and mid-summer 2003 in Tainan, Taiwan, were analyzed. PM2.5 contained, on average, 449.3 ng m(-3) oxalic acid, 53.0 ng m-3 malic acid, 45.5 ng m-3 maleic acid, 29.6 ng m-3 succinic acid, 20.8 ng m(-3) malonic acid, and 11.6 ng m(-3) tartaric acid. Bar tartaric acid, concentrations were higher during the day, indicating that these acids are photochemical products. Furthermore, the malonic acid-succinic acid ratio of 0.79 during daytime and 0.60 during nighttime demonstrates that more succinic acid is converted to malonic acid during daytime, and that aerosol dicarboxylie acids predominantly originate from photochemical oxidation during daytime. The concentration peak of oxalic acid occurred in the condensation and droplet modes (0.32-1.0 mu m), as did that of sulfate. In early summer, succinic acid, malonic acid, and oxalic acid major concentration peaks occurred at 0.32-0.54 mu m, indicative of the relationship created by photochemical decomposition of succinc acid into malonic acid into oxalic acid. This photochemical decomposition accelerated in mid-summer such that most concentration peaks for succinic and malonic acids also occurred at 0.32-1.0 mu m. Mid-summer is also the wettest period of the four in Tainan, with 85% RH. As a result of hygroscopic reactions in mid-summer, malonic acid and oxalic acid major concentration peaks shifted from 0.32-0.54 mu m or 0.54-1.0 mu m to 1.0-1.8 mu m, thus extending the range in which these species were found to larger particle sizes, and this shift was highly correlated with a shift in succinic acid size distribution. This latter observation offers additional evidence that succinic acid is photochemically decomposed into malonic acid and oxalic acid and that the presence of malonic and oxalic acids in the wet mid-summer atmosphere is made more obvious via hygroscopic growth. Close correlation between succinic acid and Na+ and succinic acid and NO3- in the coarse mode is related to sea spray. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Origin of low-molecular-weight dicarboxylic acids and their concentration and size distribution variation in suburban aerosol,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+700268,"The Amazon River Basin encompasses the world's largest remaining tropical rainforest, and the largest freshwater system with the highest fish species diversity on earth, but global climate change is predicted to cause the loss of 7-12% of fish species by 2070. The severe drought anomaly of 2005, caused by warming of Atlantic surface waters, provided a unique opportunity to examine the impact of a major climatic disturbance on a tropical fish assemblage. We monitored fish species diversity in six Brazilian floodplain lakes along the Solimes River from 2004 to 2007 (before, during, and after drought). Statistical analysis revealed changes in species composition of these lakes following the drought, with both positive and negative responses observed. The response to drought was not uniform among species with regard to trophic guild or migratory behavior. SIMPER analysis showed that planktivores on the average increased in abundance in the years following the drought, carnivores and omnivores decreased, and herbivores and detritivores increased. Some of these changes were transitory, others persisted through monitoring. Migratory species disproportionately increased in abundance post-drought compared to non-migratory species. Interlake (beta) diversity of fish declined during the drought year, indicating that lakes were becoming less heterogeneous in species composition, but showed a trend toward recovery of pre-drought level in the following years. According to both global climate change models and recent experience, the intensity and frequency of droughts in this region of the world is increasing. Given the sensitivity of resident fish species to the single, short-term, perturbation reported here, assessment of how tropical freshwater fish populations respond to drought will be crucial to understanding the consequences of this kind of perturbation to these communities and to the human inhabitants who depend upon this important protein source.",An initial assessment of drought sensitivity in Amazonian fish communities,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+113274,"Identifying the various drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts and disentangling their respective influence are critical tasks for understanding biodiversity dynamics and properly managing exploited living resources such as marine fish communities. Unfortunately, the mechanisms and forcing factors underlying regime shifts in marine fish communities are still largely unknown although climate forcing and anthropogenic pressures such as fishing have been suggested as key determinants. Based on a 24-year-long time-series of scientific surveys monitoring 55 fish and cephalopods species, we report here a rapid and persistent structural change in the exploited fish community of the eastern English Channel from strong to moderate dominance of small-bodied forage fish species with low temperature preferendum that occurred in the mid-1990s. This shift was related to a concomitant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean as attested by a switch of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a cold to a warm phase. Interestingly, observed changes in the fish community structure were opposite to those classically induced by exploitation as larger fish species of higher trophic level increased in abundance. Despite not playing a direct role in the regime shift, fishing still appeared as a forcing factor affecting community structure. Moreover, although related to climate, the regime shift may have been facilitated by strong historic exploitation that certainly primed the system by favoring the large dominance of small-bodied fish species that are particularly sensitive to climatic variations. These results emphasize that particular attention should be paid to multidecadal natural climate variability and its interactions with both fishing and climate warming when aiming at sustainable exploitation and ecosystem conservation.",Regime Shift in an Exploited Fish Community Related to Natural Climate Oscillations,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2090004,"1. Industrial longline fishing has been suspected to impact upon black-footed albatross populations Phoebastria nigripes by increasing mortality, but no precise estimates of bycatch mortality are available to ascertain this statement. We present a general framework for quantifying the relationship between albatross population and longline fishing in absence of reliable estimates of bycatch rate. 2. We analysed capture-recapture data of a population of black-footed albatross to obtain estimates of survival probability for this population using several alternative models to adequately take into account heterogeneity in the recapture process. Instead of trying to estimate the number of birds killed by using various extrapolations and unchecked assumptions, we investigate the potential relationship between annual adult survival and several measures of fishing effort. Although we considered a large number of covariates, we used principal component analysis to generate a few uncorrelated synthetic variables from the set and thus we maintained both power and robustness. 3. The average survival for 1997-2002 was 92%, a low value compared to estimates available for other albatross species. We found that one of the synthetic variables used to summarize industrial longline fishing significantly explained more than 40% of the variation in adult survival over 11 years, suggesting an impact by longline fishing on albatross' survival. 4. Our analysis provides some evidence of non-linear variation in survival with fishing effort. This could indicate that below a certain level of fishing effort, deaths due to incidental catch can be partially or totally compensated for by a decrease in natural mortality. Another possible explanation is the existence of a strong interspecific competition for accessing the baits, reducing the risk of being accidentally hooked. 5. Synthesis and applications. The suspicion of a significant impact of longline fishing on the black-footed albatross population was supported by the combination of a low estimate of adult survival for the study period, and a significant relationship between adult survival and a synthetic measure of fishing effort. This study highlights the sensitivity of the black-footed albatross to commercial longline fishing, and should exhort fishery management authorities to find adequate seabirds avoidance methods and to encourage their employment.",Quantifying the impact of longline fisheries on adult survival in the black-footed albatross,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+439480,"Climate change is expected to affect water supply if extreme climatic events and unpredictable rainfall patterns become more prevalent. Bulk infrastructure tends to determine urban communities' vulnerability to water supply and this infrastructure tends to be managed by the government. This suggests that water supply adaptation will require government capacity and commitment - often lacking in the developing country context. This article focuses on the processes impeding and facilitating adaptation to climate change within the urban water sector in the City of Cape Town, South Africa. The case study explores water management at the city scale, highlighting how actors currently respond to water stress and the challenges they face in integrating climate change information into water management. The case study results suggest that the best ways to facilitate adaptation are to focus on areas where development needs and responses to climate change impacts are connected, and focus support on adaptation processes rather than outcomes. This approach is likely to ensure that climate change responses are not seen as competing with non-climate development priorities, but as part of the solution to them. This is likely to create incentives for the global South to respond to climate change.",Climate change adaptation in a developing country context: The case of urban water supply in Cape Town,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+280761,"Lake Maggiore is the second largest lake in Italy, with a surface area, maximum depth and volume respectively of 212 km2, 370 m, and 37.5 km3. Politically, the catchment belongs in equal parts to Italy and Switzerland. Lake water is used for tourism, recreational-environmental activities, public and private navigation, professional and sport fishery, hydroelectric production, irrigation and drinking. Long-term studies provide a history of industrial pollution and eutrophication followed by successful re-oligotrophication. Thermal studies show an increase in the water temperature in the 0–30 m layer of about 1.4 °C during the last 45 years. The new physical conditions of the water column, coupled with an increase of recreational uses and the trade in exotic aquarium species, resulted in an increase of cyanobacteria blooms and alien species introduction (Dreissena polymorpha, Corbicula fluminea, Sinanodonta woodiana, Procambarus clarkii and Orconectes limosus). The water European Directive (2000/60/EC) classifies as “lowest quality” typology those lakes which have exotic species. © 2011, © 2011 Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.",Climate Change and Related Effects on Water Quality: Examples from Lake Maggiore (Italy),1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+615196,"The ability to predict spatial variation in streamflow at the watershed scale is essential to understanding the potential impacts of projected climate change on aquatic systems in this century. However, problems associated with single outlet-based model calibration and validation procedures can confound the prediction of spatial variation in streamflow under future climate change scenarios. The goal of this study is to calibrate and validate a distributed hydrologic model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), using distributed streamflow data (1978-2009), and to assess the potential impacts of climate change on future streamflow (2051-2060 and 2086-2095) for the Rock River (RRW), Illinois River (IRW), Kaskaskia River (KRW), and Wabash River (VVRW) watersheds in the Midwestern United States, primarily in Illinois. The potential impacts of climate change on future water resources are assessed using SWAT streamflow simulations driven by projections from nine global climate models (GCMs) under a maximum of three SRES scenarios (A1B, A2, and BI). Results from model validation indicate reasonable spatial and temporal predictions of streamflow, suggesting that a multi-site calibration strategy is necessary to accurately predict spatial variation in watershed hydrology. Compared with past streamflow records, predicted future streamflow based on climate change scenarios will tend to increase in the winter but decrease in the summer. According to 26 GCM projections, annual streamflows from 2051 - 2060 (2086-2095) are projected to decrease up to 45.2% (613%), 48.7% (49.8%), 48.7% (56.6%), and 41.1% (44.6%) in the RRW, IRW, KRW, and WRW, respectively. In addition, under the projected changes in climate, intra- and inter-annual streamflow variability generally does not increase over time. Results suggest that increased temperature could change the rate of evapotranspiration and the form of precipitation, subsequently influencing monthly streamflow patterns. Moreover, the spatially varying pattern of streamflow variability under future climate conditions suggests different buffering capabilities among regions. As such, regionally specific management strategies are necessary to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change and preserve aquatic ecosystems and water resources. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in agricultural watersheds of the Midwestern United States,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+304768,"Recent observations of changes in some tundra ecosystems appear to be responses to a warming climate. Several experimental studies have shown that tundra plants and ecosystems can respond strongly to environmental change, including warming; however, most studies were limited to a single location and were of short duration and based on a variety of experimental designs. In addition, comparisons among studies are difficult because a variety of techniques have been used to achieve experimental warming and different measurements have been used to assess responses. We used metaanalysis on plant community measurements from standardized warming experiments at 11 locations across the tundra biome involved in the International Tundra Experiment. The passive warming treatment increased plant-level air temperature by 1-3 degrees C, which is in the range of predicted and observed warming for tundra regions. Responses were rapid and detected in whole plant communities after only two growing seasons. Overall, warming increased height and cover of deciduous shrubs and graminoids, decreased cover of mosses and lichens, and decreased species diversity and evenness. These results predict that warming will cause a decline in biodiversity across a wide variety of tundra, at least in the short term. They also provide rigorous experimental evidence that recently observed increases in shrub cover in many tundra regions are in response to climate warming. These changes have important implications for processes and interactions within tundra ecosystems and between tundra and the atmosphere.",Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+467880,"This paper focuses on migration between Australia and New Zealand, which has exhibited a strong, but cyclical, net movement towards Australia since the late 1960s. A long-term historical perspective is taken. Trans-Tasman migration is also compared with inter-island migration within New Zealand. It is argued that differential economic development, driven by forces of globalization, agglomeration and technological change, has been primarily responsible for the long-run changes in the distribution of population across the regions of Australasia. Asynchronous business cycles, demographic dynamics, perceptions, return migration and the high international mobility of New Zealanders (of whom one quarter of those aged 40-64 have lived abroad for a year or longer) are responsible for the short-run fluctuations. However, permanent and long-term migration is only a small fraction of total trans-Tasman population movement. Moreover, trans-Tasman migration has not offset New Zealand's ability to recruit population through immigration. Over the last three decades, the outflow of more than half a million New Zealand citizens has been compensated by a net inflow of three-quarter million citizens from elsewhere. The number of New Zealanders in Australia is expected to continue to grow but the migration flows are becoming increasingly diversified. One-third of the New Zealanders in Australia re-migrates within four years. Future trends will depend on New Zealand's ability to boost productivity growth, the real cost of air travel, retirement migration and the impacts of climate change.","Trans-Tasman Migration, Transnationalism and Economic Development in Australasia",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+774903,"From June 2004 to December 2007, samples were weekly collected at a fixed station located at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin). We examined the seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in composition and community structure of the phytoplankton in relation to the main environmental drivers and assessed the influence of the oceano-graphic regime, namely changes in frequency and intensity of upwelling events, over the dynamics of the phytoplankton assemblage. The samples were consistently handled and a final subset of 136 OTUs (taxa with relative abundance > 0.01%) was subsequently submitted to various multivariate analyses. The phytoplankton assemblage showed significant changes at all temporal scales but with an overriding importance of seasonality over longer-(inter-annual) or shorter-term fluctuations (upwelling-related). Sea-surface temperature, salinity and maximum upwelling index were retrieved as the main driver of seasonal change. Seasonal signal was most evident in the fluctuations of chlorophyll a concentration and in the high turnover from the winter to spring phytoplankton assemblage. The seasonal cycle of production and succession was disturbed by upwelling events known to disrupt thermal stratification and induce changes in the phytoplankton assemblage. Our results indicate that both the frequency and intensity of physical forcing were important drivers of such variability, but the outcome in terms of species composition was highly dependent on the available local pool of species and the timing of those events in relation to the seasonal cycle. We conclude that duration, frequency and intensity of upwelling events, which vary seasonally and inter-annually, are paramount for maintaining long-term phytoplankton diversity likely by allowing unstable coexistence and incorporating species turnover at different scales. Our results contribute to the understanding of the complex mechanisms of coastal phytoplankton dynamics in relation to changing physical forcing which is fundamental to improve predictability of future prospects under climate change.",Phytoplankton dynamics in relation to seasonal variability and upwelling and relaxation patterns at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin) over a four-year period,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2277072,"Men and women differ in their perceptions of environmental risk, vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation behaviour. Effective policies must address the diversity of gender roles and identities, and the underlying drivers of inequality.",Gender in conservation and climate policy,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+364475,"Spatial fingerprints of climate change on biotic communities are usually associated with changes in the distribution of species at their latitudinal or altitudinal extremes. By comparing the altitudinal distribution of 171 forest plant species between 1905 and 1985 and 1986 and 2005 along the entire elevation range ( 0 to 2600 meters above sea level) in west Europe, we show that climate warming has resulted in a significant upward shift in species optimum elevation averaging 29 meters per decade. The shift is larger for species restricted to mountain habitats and for grassy species, which are characterized by faster population turnover. Our study shows that climate change affects the spatial core of the distributional range of plant species, in addition to their distributional margins, as previously reported.",A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+640378,"Climate and competition are often presented from two opposing views of the dominant driver of individual tree growth and species distribution in temperate forests, such as those in the eastern United States. Previous studies have provided abundant evidence indicating that both factors influence tree growth, and we argue that these effects are not independent of one another and rather that interactions between climate, competition, and size best describe tree growth. To illustrate this point, we describe the growth responses of five common eastern tree species to interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, competition, and individual size using maximum likelihood estimation. Models that explicitly include interactions among these four factors explained over half of the variance in annual growth for four out of five species using annual climate. Expanding temperature and precipitation analyses to include seasonal interactions resulted in slightly improved models with a mean R-2 of 0.61 (SD 0.10). Growth responses to individual factors as well their interactions varied greatly among species. For example, growth sensitivity to temperature for Quercus rubra increased with maximum annual precipitation, but other species showed no change in sensitivity or slightly reduced annual growth. Our results also indicate that three-way interactions among individual stem size, competition, and temperature may determine which of the five co-occurring species in our study could have the highest growth rate in a given year. Continued consideration and quantification of interactions among climate, competition, and individual-based characteristics are likely to increase understanding of key biological processes such as tree growth. Greater parameterization of interactions between traditionally segregated factors such as climate and competition may also help build a framework to reconcile drivers of individual-based processes such as growth with larger-scale patterns of species distribution.",Interspecific variation in growth responses to climate and competition of five eastern tree species,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3939634,"Flood fighting activity in preceding centuries and systematic research conducted since 1995 have produced a collection of more than 2200 historical data regarding dike failures in the Carpathian Basin. [14,15] Despite the gaps in and the frequent errors of historical data, the high number of dike breaches facilitates statistical processing and the evaluation of the results allows us to draw interesting conclusions and lessons for future generations, for instance regarding the length of levee breaches. The effect of human intervention is easy to trace in the system of flood control on the basis of the changing number and length of levee breaches.",Estimating dike breach length from historical data,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+724036,"In this study, effects of elevated air temperatures on thermal and hydrologic process of the shallow soil in the active layer were investigated. Open-top chambers (OTCs) were utilized to increase air temperatures 1-2A degrees C in OTC-1 and 3-5A degrees C in OTC-2 in the alpine meadow ecosystem on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Results show that the annual air temperatures under OTC-1 and OTC-2 were 1.21A degrees C and 3.62A degrees C higher than the Control, respectively. The entirely-frozen period of shallow soil in the active layer was shortened and the fully thawed period was prolonged with temperature increase. The maximum penetration depth and duration of the negative isotherm during the entirely-frozen period decreased, and soil freezing was retarded in the local scope of the soil profile when temperature increased. Meanwhile, the positive isotherm during the fully-thawed period increased, and the soil thawing was accelerated. Soil moisture under different manipulations decreased with the temperature increase at the same depth. During the early freezing period and the early fullythawed period, the maximum soil moisture under the Control manipulation was at 0.2 m deep, whereas under OTC-1 and OTC-2 manipulations, the maximum soil moisture were at 0.4-0.5 m deep. These results indicate that elevated temperatures led to a decrease of the moisture in the surface soil. The coupled relationship between soil temperature and moisture was significantly affected by the temperature increase. During the freezing and thawing processes, the soil temperature and moisture under different manipulations fit the regression model given by the equation theta (V)=a/{;1+exp[b(TS+c)]}+d.",Effects of elevated air temperatures on soil thermal and hydrologic processes in the active layer in an alpine meadow ecosystem of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+495747,"Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7 degrees N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3 degrees N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4 degrees N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabes and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range:33.0 degrees-45.8 degrees N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3-5 degrees C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50-74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population.",Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3928236,"The hypotheses were tested that, firstly, lichens producing the dibenzofuran usnic acid colonize substrates characterized by specific pH ranges, secondly, this preferred pH is in a range where soluble usnic acid and its corresponding anion occur in similar concentrations, and thirdly, usnic acid makes lichens vulnerable to acidity. Lichens with usnic acid prefer an ambient pH range between 3.5 and 5.5 with an optimum between 4.0 and 4.5. This optimum is close to the pKa1 value of usnic acid of 4.4. Below this optimum pH, dissolved SO2 reduces the chlorophyll fluorescence yield more in lichens with than without their natural content of usnic acid. This suggests that usnic acid influences the acidity tolerance of lichens. The putative mechanism of the limited acidity tolerance of usnic acid-containing lichens is the acidification of the cytosol by molecules of protonated usnic acid shuttling protons through the plasma membrane at an apoplastic pH &lt; pKa1. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Usnic acid controls the acidity tolerance of lichens,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+383231,"The Red Sea is a semi-enclosed tropical marine ecosystem that stretches from the Gulf of Suez and Gulf of Aqaba in the north, to the Gulf of Aden in the south. Despite its ecological and economic importance, its biological environment is relatively unexplored. Satellite ocean-colour estimates of chlorophyll concentration (an index of phytoplankton biomass) offer an observational platform to monitor the health of the Red Sea. However, little is known about the optical properties of the region. In this paper, we investigate the optical properties of the Red Sea in the context of satellite ocean-colour estimates of chlorophyll concentration. Making use of a new merged ocean-colour product, from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative, and in situ data in the region, we test the performance of a series of ocean-colour chlorophyll algorithms. We find that standard algorithms systematically overestimate chlorophyll when compared with the in situ data. To investigate this bias we develop an ocean-colour model for the Red Sea, parameterised to data collected during the Tara Oceans expedition, that estimates remote-sensing reflectance as a function of chlorophyll concentration. We used the Red Sea model to tune the standard chlorophyll algorithms and the overestimation in chlorophyll originally observed was corrected. Results suggest that the overestimation was likely due to an excess of CDOM absorption per unit chlorophyll in the Red Sea when compared with average global conditions. However, we recognise that additional information is required to test the influence of other potential sources of the overestimation, such as aeolian dust, and we discuss uncertainties in the datasets used. We present a series of regional chlorophyll algorithms for the Red Sea, designed for a suite of ocean-colour sensors, that may be used for further testing. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.",Regional ocean-colour chlorophyll algorithms for the Red Sea,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+9802,"The looming possibility of global warming raises legitimate concerns for the future of the forest resource in Canada. While evidence of a global warming trend is not conclusive at this time, governments would be wise to anticipate, and begin planning for, such an eventuality. The forest fire business is likely to be affected both early and dramatically by any trend toward warmer and drier conditions in Canada, and fire managers should be aware that the future will likely require new and innovative thinking in forest fire management. This paper summarizes research activities currently underway to assess the impact of global warming on forest fires. and speculates on future fire management problems and strategies.",GLOBAL WARMING AND FOREST-FIRES IN CANADA,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+544139,"This review summarizes recent research in Australia on: (i) climate and geophysical trends over the last few decades; (ii) projections for climate change in the 21st century; (iii) predicted impacts from modelling studies on particular ecosystems and native species; and (iv) ecological effects that have apparently occurred as a response to recent warming. Consistent with global trends, Australia has warmed similar to0.8degreesC over the last century with minimum temperatures warming faster than maxima. There have been significant regional trends in rainfall with the northern, eastern and southern parts of the continent receiving greater rainfall and the western region receiving less. Higher rainfall has been associated with an increase in the number of rain days and heavy rainfall events. Sea surface temperatures on the Great Barrier Reef have increased and are associated with an increase in the frequency and severity of coral bleaching and mortality. Sea level rises in Australia have been regionally variable, and considerably less than the global average. Snow cover and duration have declined significantly at some sites in the Snowy Mountains. CSIRO projections for future climatic changes indicate increases in annual average temperatures of 0.4-2.0degreesC by 2030 (relative to 1990) and 1.0-6.0degreesC by 2070. Considerable uncertainty remains as to future changes in rainfall, El Nino Southern Oscillation events and tropical cyclone activity. Overall increases in potential evaporation over much of the continent are predicted as well as continued reductions in the extent and duration of snow cover. Future changes in temperature and rainfall are predicted to have significant impacts on most vegetation types that have been modelled to date, although the interactive effect of continuing increases in atmospheric CO2 has not been incorporated into most modelling studies. Elevated CO2 will most likely mitigate some of the impacts of climate change by reducing water stress. Future impacts on particular ecosystems include increased forest growth, alterations in competitive regimes between C3 and C4 grasses, increasing encroachment of woody shrubs into arid and semiarid rangelands, continued incursion of mangrove communities into freshwater wetlands, increasing frequency of coral bleaching, and establishment of woody species at increasingly higher elevations in the alpine zone. Modelling of potential impacts on specific Australian taxa using bioclimatic analysis programs such as bioclim consistently predicts contraction and/or fragmentation of species' current ranges. The bioclimates of some species of plants and vertebrates are predicted to disappear entirely with as little as 0.5-1.0degreesC of warming. Australia lacks the long-term datasets and tradition of phenological monitoring that have allowed the detection of climate-change-related trends in the Northern Hemisphere. Long-term changes in Australian vegetation can be mostly attributed to alterations in fire regimes, clearing and grazing, but some trends, such as encroachment of rainforest into eucalypt woodlands, and establishment of trees in subalpine meadows probably have a climatic component. Shifts in species distributions toward the south (bats, birds), upward in elevation (alpine mammals) or along changing rainfall contours (birds, semiarid reptiles), have recently been documented and offer circumstantial evidence that temperature and rainfall trends are already affecting geographic ranges. Future research directions suggested include giving more emphasis to the study of climatic impacts and understanding the factors that control species distributions, incorporating the effects of elevated CO2 into climatic modelling for vegetation and selecting suitable species as indicators of climate-induced change.","Climate change and Australia: Trends, projections and impacts",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+611858,"Under the background of global climate change, hydrological responses to climate change were investigated in Northeastern China. This study analyses the trends of annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation and streamflow series in Nenjiang River Basin. Correlations between streamflow and meteorological variables were investigated, while parametric method and nonparametric tests were applied to determine the trends and correlations. Data collected from a series of monitoring stations showed significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean temperature versus time, whereas during the whole period the annual and seasonal precipitation in the basin did not exhibit similar trends although temporal and spatial variations were detected. Affected by the precipitation and temperature changes, significant trends of decreasing annual, spring and autumn streamflow were demonstrated; the decrease concentrating mainly on the mainstream and tributaries of the left bank. Correlation analyses revealed strong relationships between the streamflow and meteorological variables in Nenjiang River Basin, and the impacts of climate change on streamflow were complicated. Results from this study will help water resource managers for decision makings that address the consequences of climate change.","Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Nenjiang River Basin, Northeastern China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+110521,"Seagrass meadows are among the most threatened ecosystems on earth, raising concerns about the equilibrium of coastal ecosystems and the sustainability of local fisheries. The present review evaluated the current status of the research on seagrasses and submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) habitats off the coast of Brazil in terms of plant responses to environmental conditions, changes in distribution and abundance, and the possible role of climate change and variability. Despite an increase in the number of studies, the communication of the results is still relatively limited and is mainly addressed to a national or regional public; thus, South American seagrasses are rarely included or cited in global reviews and models. The scarcity of large-scale and long-term studies allowing the detection of changes in the structure, abundance and composition of seagrass habitats and associated species still hinders the investigation of such communities with respect to the potential effects of climate change. Seagrass meadows and SAV occur all along the Brazilian coast, with species distribution and abundance being strongly influenced by regional oceanography, coastal water masses, river runoff and coastal geomorphology. Based on these geomorphological, hydrological and ecological features, we characterised the distribution of seagrass habitats and abundances within the major coastal compartments. The current conservation status of Brazilian seagrasses and SAV is critical. The unsustainable exploitation and occupation of coastal areas and the multifold anthropogenic footprints left during the last 100 years led to the loss and degradation of shoreline habitats potentially suitable for seagrass occupation. Knowledge of the prevailing patterns and processes governing seagrass structure and functioning along the Brazilian coast is necessary for the global discussion on climate change. Our review is a first and much-needed step toward a more integrated and inclusive approach to understanding the diversity of coastal plant formations along the Southwestern Atlantic coast as well as a regional alert the projected or predicted effects of global changes on the goods and services provided by regional seagrasses and SAV.","Seagrass and Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (VAS) Habitats off the Coast of Brazil: state of knowledge, conservation and main threats",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+677134,"This study evaluates the effect on the availability of water resources for agriculture of expected future changes in precipitation and temperature distributions in north-western Africa. It also puts forward some locally derived adaptation strategies to climate change that can have a positive impact on water resources in the Chtouka Alt Baha region. Historical baselines of precipitation and temperature were derived using satellite data respectively from CHIRPS and CRU, while future projections of temperature and precipitation were extracted from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment database (CORDEX). Projections were also generated for two future periods (2030-2049 and 2080-2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Regional climate models and satellite data outputs were evaluated by calculating their bias and RMSE against historical baseline and observed data. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, temperature in the region shows an increase by 2 degrees C for the 2030-2049 time period, and by 4 to 5 degrees C towards the end of the 21st century. According to the RCP4.5 scenario, precipitation shows a reduction of 10 to 30% for the period 2030-2049, up to 60% for 2080-2099. Outputs from the climate change projections were used to force the HEC-HMS hydrological model. Simulation results indicate that water deficit at basin level will likely triple towards 2050 due to increase in water demand and decrease in aquifer recharge and dam storage. This alarming situation, in a country that already suffers from water insecurity, emphasizes the need for more efforts to implement climate change adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment of 38 climate change adaptation measures according to several criteria. The evaluation shows that measures affecting the management of water resources have the highest benefit-to-effortsxatio, which indicates that decision makers and stakeholders should increasingly focus their efforts on management measures. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Climate change and adaptive water management measures in Chtouka Alt Saha region (Morocco),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1504849,"Background: Plants in hot and dry climates often flower earlier, make thicker leaves, and produce fewer flowers than conspecifics from relatively wet, cool climates. Silene latifolia, a dioecious, short-lived, flowering perennial, grows in both of these climates in Europe. Question: Is variation in traits seen among populations with divergent climates a result of genetic changes in response to local environmental conditions, differences in the degree of sexual dimorphism, or phenotypic plasticity? Hypothesis: Traits will differ between populations in a common garden as a result of genetic divergence, and exhibit a pattern of variation that is congruent with adaptation to climate. Methods: Morphological and phenological measurements were taken during two flowering seasons on plants growing in Croatia (relatively wet and cool) and Spain (hot and dry). Seeds from both regions were grown to flowering in the greenhouse and several traits were measured. Results: Significant divergence in traits existed between Croatia and Spain that persisted in the common garden (greenhouse), indicating that populations in these two regions likely represent different ecotypes. Plants from Spain flowered earlier in the field, made thicker leaves, and produced fewer flowers than plants from Croatia. Plants from Spain also showed greater sexual dimorphism than those from Croatia.",Genetically based population divergence of Silene latifolia from two climate regions,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+386765,"Agricultural frontiers are dynamic environments characterized by the conversion of native habitats to agriculture. Because they are currently concentrated in diverse tropical habitats, agricultural frontiers are areas where the largest number of species is exposed to hazardous land management practices, including pesticide use. Focusing on the Amazonian frontier, we show that producers have varying access to resources, knowledge, control and reward mechanisms to improve land management practices. With poor education and no technical support, pesticide use by smallholders sharply deviated from agronomical recommendations, tending to overutilization of hazardous compounds. By contrast, with higher levels of technical expertise and resources, and aiming at more restrictive markets, large-scale producers adhered more closely to technical recommendations and even voluntarily replaced more hazardous compounds. However, the ecological footprint increased significantly over time because of increased dosage or because formulations that are less toxic to humans may be more toxic to other biodiversity. Frontier regions appear to be unique in terms of the conflicts between production and conservation, and the necessary pesticide risk management and risk reduction can only be achieved through responsibility-sharing by diverse stakeholders, including governmental and intergovernmental organizations, NGOs, financial institutions, pesticide and agricultural industries, producers, academia and consumers.",Pesticide use and biodiversity conservation in the Amazonian agricultural frontier,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+75669,"The Yiluo River is the largest tributary for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River below Sanmenxia Dam. Changes of the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin, influenced by the climatic variability and human activities, can directly affect ecological integrity in the lower reach of the Yellow River. Understanding the impact of the climatic variability and human activities on the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin is especially important to maintain the ecosystem integrity and sustain the society development in the lower reach of the Yellow River basin. In this study, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and runoff during 1961-2000 in the Yiluo River basin were explored by the Mann-Kendall method (M-K method), Yamamoto method and linear fitted model. The impacts of the climatic variability and vegetation changes on the annual runoff were discussed by the empirical model and simple water balance model and their contribution to change of annual runoff have been estimated. Results indicated that (i) significant upwards trend for air temperature and significant downwards trend both for precipitation and ET0 were detected by the M-K method at 95% confidence level. And the consistent trends were obtained by the linear fitted model; (ii) the abrupt change started from 1987 detected by the M-K method and Yamamoto method, and so the annual runoff during 1961-2000 was divided into two periods: baseline period (1961-1986) and changeable period (1987-2000); and (iii) the vegetation changes were the main cause for change of annual runoff from baseline period to changeable period, and climatic variability contributed a little to the change of annual runoff of the Yiluo River. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climatic variability and vegetation changes in the Yiluo River basin, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1286728,"Tallgrass prairie, arguably the most fire-dependent system in North America, is a Biome that has been essentially eliminated and is now exceedingly rare. Absent frequent disturbance, remnant tallgrass prairie rapidly converts to a dominant cover of woody plants. This creates unique challenges for conservation of prairie-specialist insects dependent on increasingly small and isolated habitats prone to direct and indirect threats from climate variability, habitat degradation, and management activities; or lack thereof. Regal fritillary butterflies (Speyeria idalia) exemplify this problem, with sharp population declines in recent decades and considerable disagreement on management practices, particularly in the use of prescribed burning to maintain habitat. Spanning 20-years (1997-2016), we evaluated regal fritillary populations within seven sites in relation to fire, habitat, and climate records to better understand these interacting effects on interannual and long-term population changes. Though fire had short-term negative effects on regal fritillary abundance, habitat quality was one of the most important factors explaining populations and was positively associated with prescribed fire. Burning every 3-5 years maximized regal fritillary abundance, but even annual burning was more beneficial to regal populations than no burning at all. Unburned refugia are important in maintaining populations, but creating and maintaining high quality habitat with abundant violets (Viola spp) and varied nectar sources, may be the most impactful management and conservation tool. Regal fritillary butterflies were consistently more than twice as abundant on high quality habitats and this relationship held across, and often dwarfed the effects of, various prescribed fire regimes or climate variability.","Disentangling effects of fire, habitat, and climate on an endangered prairie-specialist butterfly",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+621337,"Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 similar to degrees C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 20162035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target.",Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1473518,"1. Regional faunas are structured by historical, spatial and environmental factors. We studied large-scale variation in four ecologically different beetle groups (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae, Carabidae, Hydrophiloidea, Cerambycidae) along climate, land cover and geographical gradients, examined faunal breakpoints in relation to environmental variables, and investigated the best fit pattern of assemblage variation (i.e. randomness, checkerboards, nestedness, evenly spaced, Gleasonian, Clementsian). We applied statistical methods typically used in the analysis of local ecological communities to provide novel insights into faunal compositional patterns at large spatial grain and geographical extent. We found that spatially structured variation in climate and land cover accounted for most variation in each beetle group in partial redundancy analyses, whereas the individual effect of each explanatory variable group was generally much less important in accounting for variation in provincial species composition. We also found that climate variables were most strongly associated with faunal breakpoints, with temperature-related variables alone accounting for about 20% of variation at the first node of multivariate regression tree for each beetle group. The existence of faunal breakpoints was also shown by the elements of faunal structure' analyses, which suggested Clementsian gradients across the provinces, that is, that there were two or more clear groups of species responding similarly to the underlying ecological gradients. The four beetle groups showed highly similar biogeographical patterns across our study area. The fact that temperature was related to faunal breakpoints in the species composition of each beetle group suggests that climate sets a strong filter to the distributions of species at this combination of spatial grain and spatial extent. This finding held true despite the ecological differences among the four beetle groups, ranging from fully aquatic to fully terrestrial and from herbivorous to predaceous species. The existence of Clementsian gradients may be a common phenomenon at large scales, and it is likely to be caused by crossing multiple species pools determined by climatic and historical factors on the distributions of species.","Elements of regional beetle faunas: faunal variation and compositional breakpoints along climate, land cover and geographical gradients",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1306494,"Climate change will increase extreme heat-related health risks. To quantify the health impacts of mid-century climate change, we assess heat-related excess mortality across the eastern USA. Health risks are estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Mid-century temperature estimates, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, are compared to 2007 temperatures at 36km and 12km resolutions. Models indicate the average apparent and actual summer temperatures rise by 4.5 degrees and 3.3 degrees C, respectively. Warmer average apparent temperatures could cause 11,562 additional annual deaths (95% confidence interval, CI: 2641-20,095) due to cardiovascular stress in the population aged 65years and above, while higher minimum temperatures could cause 8767 (95% CI: 5030-12,475) additional deaths each year. Modeled future climate data available at both coarse (36km) and fine (12km) resolutions predict significant human health impacts from warmer climates. The findings suggest that currently available information on future climates is sufficient to guide regional planning for the protection of public health. Higher resolution climate and demographic data are still needed to inform more targeted interventions.",Climate Change and Heat-Related Excess Mortality in the Eastern USA,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+777684,"We use regression analysis on data from 208 districts over the period 1981-2009 to examine the impact of temperature and solar radiation (affected by pollution from aerosols) on wheat yields in India. We find that a 1 A degrees C increase in average daily maximum and minimum temperatures tends to lower yields by 2-4% each. A 1% increase in solar radiation increases yields by nearly 1%. Yields are estimated to be about 5.2% lower than they would have been if temperatures had not increased during the study period. We combine the estimated impacts of weather on yield with the estimated impacts of aerosol pollution (measured by moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer sensor in terms of aerosol optical depth, aerosol optical depth (AOD) in 2001-2013) on weather to compute the net impact of reducing aerosol pollution on wheat yields. A one-standard-deviation decrease in AOD is estimated to increase yields by about 4.8%. Our results imply reducing regional pollution and curbing global warming in the coming decades can counter wheat yield losses.",Global warming and local air pollution have reduced wheat yields in India,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+675335,"In situ temperature measurements revealed that the position of the high-elevation treeline is associated with a minimum seasonal mean air temperature within a temperature-defined minimum season length across latitudes. Here, we build upon this experience and present the results of a global statistical analysis and a predictive model for low temperature treeline positions. We identified 376 natural treelines from satellite images across the globe, and searched for their closest climatic proxies using a climate database. The analysis included a snow and a water balance submodel to account for season length constraints by snow pack and drought. We arrive at thermal treeline criteria almost identical to those that emerged from the earlier in situ measurements: tree growth requires a minimum length of the growing season of 94 days. The model yields best fit when the season is defined as all days with a daily mean temperature > 0.9 A degrees C, and a mean of 6.4 A degrees C across all these days. The resultant treeline model 'TREELIM' offers a robust estimation of potential treeline elevation based on climate data only. Error terms include imprecise treeline position in satellite images and climate approximations in mountainous terrain. The algorithm permits constraining low temperature limits of forest growth worldwide (including polar treelines) and also permits a bioclimatic stratification of mountain biota, for instance, for biodiversity assessments. As a side product, the model yields the global potentially forested area. The results support the isotherm theory for natural treeline formation. This completely independent statistical assessment of the climatic drivers of the global treeline phenomenon confirmed the results of a multi-year measurement campaign.",A climate-based model to predict potential treeline position around the globe,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+795797,"This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the extent to which climate and climatic change can have a negative impact on societies by triggering migration, or even contribute to conflict. It summarizes results from the transdisciplinary project ""Climate of migration"" (funded 2010-2014), whose innovative title was created by Franz Mauelshagen and Uwe Lubken. The overall goal of this project was to analyze the relation between climatic and socioeconomic parameters and major migration waves from southwest Germany to North America during the 19th century. The article assesses the extent to which climatic conditions triggered these migration waves. The century investigated was in general characterized by the Little Ice Age with three distinct cooling periods, causing major glacier advances in the alpine regions and numerous climatic extremes such as major floods, droughts and severe winter. Societal changes were tremendous, marked by the warfare during the Napoleonic era (until 1815), the abolition of serfdom (1817), the bourgeois revolution (1847/48), economic freedom (1862), the beginning of industrialization accompanied by large-scale rural-urban migration resulting in urban poverty, and finally by the foundation of the German Empire in 1871. The presented study is based on quantitative data and a qualitative, information-based discourse analysis. It considers climatic conditions as well as socioeconomic and political issues, leading to the hypothesis of a chain of effects ranging from unfavorable climatic conditions to a decrease in crop yields to rising cereal prices and finally to emigration. These circumstances were investigated extensively for the peak emigration years identified with each migration wave. Furthermore, the long-term relations between emigration and the prevailing climatic conditions, crop yields and cereal prices were statistically evaluated with a sequence of linear models which were significant with explanatory power between 22 and 38%.",Climate of migration? How climate triggered migration from southwest Germany to North America during the 19th century,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+98282,"The accusation by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) that domestic animals contribute 18% (Livestock's Long Shadow) or 14.5% (Tackling Climate Change Through Livestock), respectively, to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions) caused considerable damage to the reputation of animal husbandry in general, and in particular to the grassland-based production systems. This rebuttal highlights the following: – The publications mentioned ignore the uncertainties associated with the climate sensitivity of GHGs. – Baseline scenarios over time and space for livestock-borne methane and nitrous oxide emissions are elided. – There are deficits in the methodological treatment of emissions deriving from land use change (deforestation). – It is not acknowledged that there is virtually no livestock signal discernible in global methane distribution and historical methane emission rates. – The loss of energy through methane emissions by enteric fermentation in ruminants is considered as damaging to production. However, livestock-borne methane might be the price to be ‘paid’ for the effective transformation of high-fibre diets from crop residues and vast areas of grass- and rangelands marginal to agriculture into valuable food for humans (meat and milk). Consequently, the mentioned publications highly overstate livestock contribution to climate change in its extent and impact. © 2014, Glatzle; licensee Springer.",Questioning key conclusions of FAO publications ‘Livestock's Long Shadow’ (2006) appearing again in ‘Tackling Climate Change Through Livestock’ (2013),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2341170,"1. As major alterations are occurring in climate and pest ranges, it is imperative to evaluate their combined contribution to tree mortality in order to propose mitigation measures and limit losses in forest productivity. The objective of this study was to explore the association between declines in tree growth resulting from climatic and biotic (spruce budworm) disturbances, and their interactions on tree mortality of two dominant tree species, Abies balsamea and Picea mariana, of the eastern North-American boreal forest. 2. We disentangle the influences of abiotic and biotic components on growth through a combination of model-data comparison techniques. First, we characterized the variability in tree growth and mortality in the study area using a network of tree-ring width measurements collected from living and dead trees. Subsequently, a bioclimatic simulation model was used to estimate the past annual, nonlinear, responses of stand-level net primary production (NPP) to climate variability (period 1902-2012). From these two data sources, we defined the biotic stress events as the variance in the tree-ring data unexplained by the bioclimatic forest growth simulation. 3. Throughout the 20th century, two periods of adverse climatic conditions preceded spruce budworm outbreaks episodes and induced tree mortality. Climatic stress events were associated with cold springs, warmer than average summers. We found that past stress history in interaction with tree characteristics and species predisposed trees to mortality. In addition, co-occurring events (climatic and biotic) increased the severity of mortality episodes. 4. Synthesis. Our study challenges the belief that spruce budworm outbreak is the primary driver of broad-scale tree mortality in eastern boreal forest. Rather, tree mortality is the result of cumulative events that combine unfavourable conditions for growth, resulting in loss of tree vigour and subsequently, mortality. Co-occurrence of stresses in the future may lead to more severe episodes of mortality, as extreme climatic events become more frequent.",Adverse climatic periods precede and amplify defoliator-induced tree mortality in eastern boreal North America,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+169257,"Climate change adversely affects people's life in many aspects all over the world. While it is a natural phenomenon, it is also induced by human activities that include the use of fossil fuels for combustion in daily life, emitting greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. As the balance of climate system has been disturbed, it is not surprising that extreme weather events, such as very hot days and flooding, occur more frequently and more intensive than ever. Hong Kong, as an international city, should shoulder its responsibility of controlling the emissions of greenhouse gases. Using the Hong Kong annual data from 1990 to 2008, this article estimates a simple econometric model to demonstrate that electricity consumption is the major factor contributing to the variations in CO2 emissions. To complement the traditional ways to reduce CO2 emissions by restricting the consumption of electricity and other fuel, we propose two alternative methods to reduce electricity consumption by: (1) charging the supply of electricity at progressive rates for commercial and industrial end-users; and (2) setting up a cap and trade market for greenhouse gas emissions by local electricity companies. Both methods offer incentives to electricity users to self-discipline themselves to restrict the demand for electricity, hence reducing CO2 emissions in turn. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Toward a low carbon Hong Kong: A proposal from the institutional perspective,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1282006,"The mainstream discourses on global climate change have tended to focus on mitigation and have neglected the adaptive measures, particularly at the local level, even though the local/indigenous people have been considered to be more vulnerable to such change. However, climate change has a distinct local reality-since the way such change is perceived and addressed is linked with the local people and their practices. Although climate change largely affects the lives of the local poor, certain positive effects may also occur for those marginalized people. In other words, many of the indigenous peoples have an adaptive capacity to deal with climate change. Therefore, climate change adaptation has now increasingly gained prominence. In this context, this paper will investigate the impact of climate change at the local level and explain how an indigenous and vulnerable population, the Konda Reddis, respond to such change through cultural adaptation. The paper will focus on the cultural significance of the jeelugu (fishtail palm, Caryota urens) and Konda Reddis' shift from the jeelugu to the tati (palmyra palm, Borassus flabellifera). I will argue that such a shift is an indication of an adaptation to climate change. I will also maintain that though climate change plays a dominant role in stimulating such adaptation, certain other factors also interact with climatic factors in the adaptation.",Cultural adaptation to climate change among indigenous people of South India,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2098987,"Agriculture is a key sector and a major consumer of water resources; therefore, a clear understanding of the agricultural water demand for crop production and consumption is imperative for addressing water scarcity problems, particularly in water export regions. This study provides new insights into the influential factors driving the changes in the agricultural production water footprint (WFprod) and consumption water footprint (WFcon) in the net water import and net water export regions. The WFprod and WFcon of wheat are evaluated in Beijing city (the net water import region) and Heilongjiang province (the net water export region) over the period 1996-2015. The statistical significances of the influential factors, i.e., climate change, gross domestic product, population, dietary demand and technology update are determined using a multivariate linear regression model (LRM) and nonlinear regression model (NLRM). The results indicate that the gross domestic product and population were the dominant positive influential factors, whereas technology update and dietary demand were the dominant negative influential factors affecting the changes in the WFprod and WFcon in the net water import region. In the net water export region, technology update was the dominant negative influential factor affecting the changes in the WFprod and WFcon. Climate change did not contribute significantly to the changes in the WFprod and WFcon of wheat; however, it was an important factor (especially precipitation for the green WF with an average relative importance of more than 22% and the blue WF with an average relative importance of more than 15%) affecting the changes in the WFprod and WFcon of the crop. An in-depth analysis of the influential factors that contribute to the changes in the WFs is fundamentally important for decision-makers to develop countermeasures and strategic planning implementations to mitigate water resource pressure in China.",Influential factors on water footprint: A focus on wheat production and consumption in virtual water import and export regions,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1439361,"Islands rimming Pacific atolls typically form narrow, low-lying lands that are commonly perceived to be particularly vulnerable to global changes such as sea-level rise. As these, low islands form the only habitable land for many island nations, understanding the character of shorelines, and the rates and controls that operate to bring about changes, is an issue of central importance. The purpose of this study is to unravel the characteristics of coastal change on atoll islands of the Gilbert Island chain of the equatorial Pacific nation of Kiribati, especially as they relate to autogenic shoreline processes and El Nino/Southern Oscillation variability. Integration of field observations, differential global positioning system data, historical aerial photographs and ultra-high resolution remote sensing images demonstrates the nature, spatial patterns and rates of change from 17 islands on Maiana and Aranuka atolls. The results illustrate that, between 2005 and 2009, ca 50% of the shorelines on these islands displayed a discernable shift in position; some shorelines were accretionary (at net rates up to ca 8 m year(-1)) and others were erosional (up to ca 18 m year(-1)). Long-term net rates of change on Maiana between 1969 and 2009 were lower than short-term net rates measured between 2005 and 2009. Both short-term and long-term observations illustrate some of the greatest change occur near terminations of the largest, north-south oriented islands, associated with longshore movement of coarse sand and gravel. Direct hits by tropical depressions and marked seasonality, factors interpreted as being essential in island growth and shoreline dynamics elsewhere, do not directly impact these equatorial atolls and can be eliminated as fundamental controls on shoreline dynamics. Similarly, observations over four years suggested that shoreline variability probably is not influenced directly by marked sea-level change, although a recent increase in the rates of shoreline change could reflect instability related to the cumulative effect of a long-term increase in the rate of sea-level rise. Within this framework of global change, local anthropogenic effects, autogenic shoreline processes and El Nino/Southern Oscillation-influenced wind and wave variability control many aspects of these dynamic shorelines. These results provide quantitative insights into the character and variability of rates of shoreline change, information essential for evaluating and mitigating the vulnerability of island nations such as Kiribati.","Nature and stability of atoll island shorelines: Gilbert Island chain, Kiribati, equatorial Pacific",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+445823,The El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and its role in cold-season tornado outbreak climatology was described. An El Nino cycle was characterized by calming of equatorial trade winds in the East-Central Pacific. The weakening of these winds lead to a decrease in upwelling of colder waters in the East Pacific region. It was suggested that the method for determining the occurrence of a major outbreak is to look for events in which three or more significant tornadoes occurred.,The El Nino Southern oscillation and its role in cold-season tornado outbreak climatology,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+207165,"Global climate change is frequently considered a major conservation threat. The Earth's climate has already warmed by 0.5 degrees C over the past century, and recent studies show that it is possible to detect the effects of a changing climate on ecological systems. This suggests that global change may be a current and future conservation threat. Changes in recent decades are apparent at all levels of ecological organizations: population and life-history changes, shifts in geographic range, changes in species composition of communities, and changes in the structure and functioning of ecosystems. These ecological effects can be linked to recent population declines adn to both local and global extinctions of species. Although it is impossible to prove that climate change is the cause of these ecological effects, these findings have important implications for conservation biology. It is no longer safe to assume that all of a species' historic range remains suitable. In drawing attention to the importance of climate change as a current threat to species, these studies emphasize the need for current conservation efforts to consider climate change in both in situ conservation and reintroduction efforts. Additional threats will emerge as climate continues to change, especially as climate interacts with other stressors such as habitat fragmentation. These studies can contribute to preparations for future challenges by providing valuable input to models and direct examples of how species respond to climate change.",Ecological consequences of recent climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1305631,"The relationship between apparent temperature and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was studied in Rasht, Iran, from 2005 to 2014. The effects of apparent temperature on CVD mortality were investigated using the distributed lag nonlinear model. Data on all types of cardiovascular mortality cases according to the International Classification of Diseases were collected from the only cardiovascular hospital in Rasht, and the meteorological variables were obtained from Rasht Meteorological Center during the period of study. Our findings showed that low temperatures had significant impacts on CVD mortality, and a reverse J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship was found. Moreover, immediate effects of hot temperatures on CVD mortality with the strongest effects on the same day but delayed effects of cold temperature was observed. This study showed that exposure to both hot and cold apparent temperatures was associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in Rasht.",The Effects of Apparent Temperature on Cardiovascular Mortality Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model Analysis: 2005 to 2014,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+168381,"Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and average latitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northern distributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts.",Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+529560,"Understanding the influence of climatic variations on forest decline is a major challenge for scientists investigating global changes. Although reductions in tree growth have previously been associated with forest decline, comprehensive efforts to understand these relationships are rare. Based on ring width variations, we determine the influence of climatic fluctuations on the onset and temporal evolution of Nothofagus pumilio forest decline in the Patagonian Andes. Basal area increment (BM) data from 294 Nothofagus trees at 11 stands in a 500-km latitudinal transect along the forest steppe ecotone were used to identify the dominant patterns of regional growth. Three Regional dominant patterns, showing common variations in BM, were derived. Two BA1 patterns show high rates of growth from early to mid-20th century, followed by sustained negative trends over the last 3-6 decades, whereas the third pattern is characterized by a positive trend since the 1960s. Tipping points in growth trends of the first two patterns are associated with two extreme dry warm climate events in spring summer of 1942-1943/1943-1944/1944-1945 and 1978-1979. Both severe droughts were preceded by up to 10 yr of wet periods that promoted above average tree growth. We concluded that severe droughts occurring after wet periods trigger the decline of large, dominant N. pumilio trees with high rates of growth. The coincidence between major changes in regional growth with two of the most severe droughts in the instrumental records shows that climatic variations over northern Patagonia synchronize the beginning of forest decline at a regional scale. As these dry-mesic N. pumilio sites will face more severe droughts in the 21st century, as suggested by future climate scenarios, the areas affected by forest decline would increase substantially.","Influence of droughts on Nothofagus pumilio forest decline across northern Patagonia, Argentina",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2273952,"BACKGROUND: Temperature-related mortality risks have mostly been studied in urban areas, with limited evidence for urban-rural differences in the temperature impacts on health outcomes. OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether temperature-mortality relationships vary between urban and rural counties in China. METHODS: We collected daily data on 1 km gridded temperature and mortality in 89 counties of Zhejiang Province, China, for 2009 and 2015. We first performed a two-stage analysis to estimate the temperature effects on mortality in urban and rural counties. Second, we performed meta regression to investigate the modifying effect of the urbanization level. Stratified analyses were performed by all-cause, nonaccidental (stratified by age and sex), cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. We also calculated the fraction of mortality and number of deaths attributable to nonoptimum temperatures associated with both cold and heat components. The potential sources of the urban-rural differences were explored using meta-regression with county-level characteristics. RESULTS: Increased mortality risks were associated with low and high temperatures in both rural and urban areas, but rural counties had higher relative risks (RRs), attributable fractions of mortality, and attributable death counts than urban counties. The urban-rural disparity was apparent for cold (first percentile relative to minimum mortality temperature), with an RR of 1.47 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32, 1.62] associated with all-cause mortality for urban counties, and 1.98 (95% CI: 1.87, 2.10) for rural counties. Among the potential sources of the urban-rural disparity are age structure, education, GDP, health care services, air conditioners, and occupation types. CONCLUSIONS: Rural residents are more sensitive to both cold and hot temperatures than urban residents in Zhejiang Province, China, particularly the elderly. The findings suggest past studies using exposure-response functions derived from urban areas may underestimate the mortality burden for the population as a whole. The public health agencies aimed at controlling temperature-related mortality should develop area-specific strategies, such as to reduce the urban-rural gaps in access to health care and awareness of risk prevention. Future projections on climate health impacts should consider the urban-rural disparity in mortality risks.","Evidence for Urban-Rural Disparity in Temperature-Mortality Relationships in Zhejiang Province, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1357438,"We conducted a time-series analysis of 1997-1999 data records of air temperature and all-cause mortality in Greater Beirut, using bi-linear Poisson auto-regressive models, and published our findings in the Science of the Total Environment [El-Zein, A., Tewtel-Salem, M., Nehme., G., 2004. A time-series analysis of mortality and air temperature in Greater Beirut. Sci. Total Environ. 330, 71-80]. We compared our results to those of Curriero et al. [Curriero, F.C., Heiner, K.S., Samet, J.M., Zeger, S.L., Strug, L., Patz, J.A., 2002. Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the Eastern United States. Am. J. Epidemiol. 155(1) 80-87.], who subsequently reported that their original results were inaccurate and published new results [Curriero, F.C., Heiner, K.S., Samet, J.M., Zeger, S.L., Strug, L., Patz, J.A., 2002. Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the Eastern United States. Am. J. Epidemiol. 155(1) 80-87; Curriero, F.C., Samet, J.M., Zeger, S.L., 2003. Letter to the Editor re. ""On the Use of Generalized Additive Models in Time-Series Studies of Air Pollution and Health"" and ""Temperature and Mortality in 11 Cities of the Eastern United States"". Am. J. Epidemiol. 158(1) 93-94.]. In this letter, we report two changes in the interpretation of our findings as a result of the change in the results of Curriero et al. [Curriero, F.C., Heiner, K.S., Samet, J.M., Zeger, S.L., Strug, L., Patz, J.A., 2002. Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the Eastern United States. Am. J. Epidemiol. 155(1) 80-87]. Their newly-reported results reinforce our conclusion that heat-related mortality can be a significant public health issue even in temperate to warm climates.. However, our findings raise a question concerning the ability of socioeconomic indicators to explain differences in vulnerability to heat between high-income and low-income countries. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",On the association between high temperature and mortality in warm climates,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+192057,"Woody plant encroachment and overall declines in perennial vegetation in dryland regions can alter ecosystem properties and indicate land degradation, but the causes of these shifts remain controversial. Determining how changes in the abundance and distribution of grass and woody plants are influenced by conditions that regulate water availability at a regional scale provides a baseline to compare how management actions alter the composition of these vegetation types at a more local scale and can be used to predict future shifts under climate change. Using a remote-sensing-based approach, we assessed the balance between grasses and woody plants and how climate and topo-edaphic conditions affected their abundances across the northern Sonoran Desert from 1989 to 2009. Despite widespread woody plant encroachment in this region over the last 150 years, we found that leguminous trees, including mesquite (Prosopis spp.), declined in cover in areas with prolonged drying conditions during the early 21st century. Creosote bush (Larrea tridentata) also had moderate decreases with prolonged drying but was buffered from changes on soils with low clay that promote infiltration and high available water capacity that allows for retention of water at depth. Perennial grasses have expanded and contracted over the last two decades in response to summer precipitation and were especially dynamic on shallow soils with high clay that have large fluctuations in water availability. Our results suggest that topo-edaphic properties can amplify or ameliorate climate-induced changes in woody plants and perennial grasses. Understanding these relationships has important implications for ecosystem function under climate change in the southwestern USA and can inform management efforts to regulate grass and woody plant abundances.",Decadal shifts in grass and woody plant cover are driven by prolonged drying and modified by topo-edaphic properties,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+782547,"Natural decadal variability of surface air temperature might obscure Arctic temperature trends induced by anthropogenic forcing. It is therefore imperative to know how Arctic decadal variability (ADV) will change as the climate warms. In this study, we evaluate ADV characteristics in three equilibrium climates with present-day, double, and quadrupled atmospheric CO2 forcing. The dominant region of variability, which is located over the Barents and Greenland Sea at present, shifts to the central Arctic and Siberian regions as the climate warms. The maximum variability in sea ice cover and surface air temperature occurs in the CO2 doubling climate when sea ice becomes more vulnerable to melt over vast stretches of the Arctic. Furthermore, the links between dominant atmospheric circulation modes and Arctic surface climate characteristics vary strongly with climate change. For instance, a positive Arctic Oscillation index is associated with a colder Arctic in warmer climates, instead of a warmer Arctic at present. Such changing relationships are partly related to the retreat of sea ice because altered wind patterns influence the sea ice distribution and hence the associated local surface fluxes. The atmospheric pressure distributions governing ADV and the associated large-scale dynamics also change with climate warming. The changing character of the ADV shows that it is vital to consider (changes in) ADV when addressing Arctic warming in climate model projections.",Arctic decadal variability in a warming world,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+418015,"Many dendroclimatic studies have been conducted in Alaska to understand recent climate changes, identify past and current warming trends, and determine how climate change may influence ecosystems. Four new white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) ring-width chronologies from four sites along a 30 kilometer north-south transect in the Lake Clark National Park and Preserve on the Alaskan Peninsula span a common interval from AD 1769 to 2003. Two sites show an internally consistent positive growth response to increasing April-July temperatures after 1950. The two other sites each contain two subpopulations showing varying growth responses. One subpopulation diverges from historical temperature data after 1950 and one shows increased growth consistent with warming or exceeds expected growth increases. The growth decline may be due to temperature-induced drought stress that acts on some trees. Unprecedented climatic changes are triggering diverse growth responses between and within study sites that may greatly complicate dendroclimatic reconstructions of past climate conditions.","Divergent tree growth response to recent climatic warming, Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3300619,"Sea surface temperature variability in the equatorial eastern Atlantic, which is referred to as an Atlantic Nino (Nina) at its warm (cold) phase and peaks in boreal summer, dominates the interannual variability in the equatorial Atlantic. By strengthening of the Walker circulation, an Atlantic Nino favors a Pacific La Nina, which matures in boreal winter, providing a precursory memory for El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. How this Atlantic impact responds to greenhouse warming is unclear. Here, we show that greenhouse warming leads to a weakened influence from the Atlantic Nino/Nina on the Pacific ENSO. In response to anomalous equatorial Atlantic heating, ascending over the equatorial Atlantic is weaker due to an increased tropospheric stability in the mean climate, resulting in a weaker impact on the Pacific Ocean. Thus, as greenhouse warming continues, Pacific ENSO is projected to be less affected by the Atlantic Nino/Nina and more challenging to predict.",Weakening Atlantic Nino-Pacific connection under greenhouse warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+10906,"Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide. Published by Elsevier B.V.",A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+699384,"The temperate monsoon area of China is an important agricultural region but late spring frosts have frequently caused great damage to plants there. Based on phenological data derived from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON), corresponding meteorological data from 12 study sites and phenological modeling, changes in flowering times of multiple woody plants and the frequency of frost occurrence were analyzed. Through these analyses, frost risk during the flowering period at each site was estimated. Results of these estimates suggested that first flowering dates (FFD) in the study area advanced significantly from 1963 to 2009 at average rates of -1.52 days decade-1 in Northeast China (P &lt; 0.01) and -2.22 days decade-1 (P &lt; 0.01) in North China. During this same period, the number of frost days in spring decreased and the last frost days (LFD) advanced across the study area. Considering both flowering phenology and occurrence of frost, the frost risk index, which measures the percentage of species exposed to frost during the flowering period in spring, showed a decreasing trend of -0.37% decade-1 (insignificant) in Northeast China and -1.80% decade-1 (P &lt; 0.01) in North China. The results indicated the frost risk in the study region decreased over the past half century, and showed remarkable regional difference. These conclusions provide important information for agriculture and forestry managers in devising frost protection schemes.",Changes of spring frost risks during the flowering period of woody plants in temperate monsoon area of China over the past 50 years,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+556952,"Nephrolithiasis is a common disease across the world that is becoming more prevalent. Although the underlying cause for most stones is not known, a body of literature suggests a role of heat and climate as significant risk factors for lithogenesis. Recently, estimates from computer models predicted up to a 10% increase in the prevalence rate in the next half century secondary to the effects of global warming, with a coinciding 25% increase in health-care expenditures. Our aim here is to critically review the medical literature relating stones to ambient temperature. We have categorized the body of evidence by methodology, consisting of comparisons between geographic regions, comparisons over time, and comparisons between people in specialized environments. Although most studies are confounded by other factors like sunlight exposure and regional variation in diet that share some contribution, it appears that heat does play a role in pathogenesis in certain populations. Notably, the role of heat is much greater in men than in women. We also hypothesize that the role of a significant human migration (from rural areas to warmer, urban locales beginning in the last century and projected to continue) may have a greater impact than global warming on the observed worldwide increasing prevalence rate of nephrolithiasis. At this time the limited data available cannot substantiate this proposed mechanism but further studies to investigate this effect are warranted. Kidney International (2011) 79, 1178-1185; doi:10.1038/ki.2011.76; published online 30 March 2011",Ambient temperature as a contributor to kidney stone formation: implications of global warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+735731,"Avian communities of arid ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to global climate change due to the magnitude of projected change for desert regions and the inherent challenges for species residing in resource limited ecosystems. How arid-zone birds will be affected by rapid increases in air temperature and increased drought frequency and severity is poorly understood because avian responses to climate change have primarily been studied in the relatively mesic northern temperate regions. We studied the effects of increasing air temperature and aridity on a Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) population in the southwestern United States from 1998 to 2013. Over 16years, the breeding population declined 98.1%, from 52 pairs to 1 pair, and nest success and fledgling output also declined significantly. These trends were strongly associated with the combined effects of decreased precipitation and increased air temperature. Arrival on the breeding grounds, pair formation, nest initiation, and hatch dates all showed significant delays ranging from 9.4 to 25.1days over 9years, which have negative effects on reproduction. Adult and juvenile body mass decreased significantly over time, with a loss of 7.9% mass in adult males and 10.9% mass in adult females over 16years, and a loss of 20.0% mass in nestlings over 8years. Taken together, these population and reproductive trends have serious implications for local population persistence. The southwestern United States has been identified as a climate change hotspot, with projections of warmer temperatures, less winter precipitation, and an increase in frequency and severity of extreme events including drought and heat waves. An increasingly warm and dry climate may contribute to this species' decline and may already be a driving force of their apparent decline in the desert southwest.",Rapid warming and drought negatively impact population size and reproductive dynamics of an avian predator in the arid southwest,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+44878,"Anthropogenic activities in watersheds can have profound effects on sediment transport through river systems to estuaries. Disturbance in a watershed combined with alterations to the hydro-climatologic regime may result in changes to the sediment flux, and exacerbate the impacts of extreme events (such as large-magnitude floods) on sediment transport. In the San Francisco Estuary, suspended sediment has been declining over the past 30 years as a result of declining sediment supply, contributing to dramatic changes in the ecology and geomorphology of the estuary. However, the decline has not been gradual. Recent observations of an abrupt decrease in suspended sediments in the San Francisco Bay have been explained by a model that suggests that the step change has occurred due to exceedance of a sediment regulation threshold that triggered the change from a sediment transport regime to a supply-limited system. We investigated structural changes in the historical record of total suspended solids (TSS) concentration measured in the upper estuary to verify the model predictions. TSS in the upper estuary exhibited an abrupt step decrease in 1983 corresponding to the record-high winter and summer flows from the 1982 to 1983 El Nino event. After this step change, TSS concentrations had a significant declining trend despite subsequent near-record high flows. The abrupt change in TSS followed by the declining trend provides evidence for the hypothesis of sediment supply limitation in the San Francisco Estuary. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",A step decrease in sediment concentration in a highly modified tidal river delta following the 1983 El Nino floods,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+783850,"Climate models project a strong increase in Arctic precipitation over the coming century1, which has been attributed primarily to enhanced surface evaporation associated with sea-ice retreat(2). Since the Arctic is still quite cold, especially in winter, it is often (implicitly) assumed that the additional precipitation will fall mostly as snow(3). However, little is known about future changes in the distributions of rainfall and snowfall in the Arctic. Here we use 37 state-of-the-art climate models in standardized twenty-first-century (2006-2100) simulations4 to show a decrease in average annual Arctic snowfall (70 degrees-90 degrees N), despite the strong precipitation increase. Rain is projected to become the dominant form of precipitation in theArctic region (2091-2100), as atmosphericwarming causes a greater fraction of snowfall to melt before it reaches the surface, in particular over the North Atlantic and the Barents Sea. The reduction in Arctic snowfall is most pronounced during summer and autumn when temperatures are close to the melting point, but also winter rainfall is found to intensify considerably. Projected (seasonal) trends in rainfall and snowfall will heavily impact Arctic hydrology (for example, river discharge, permafrost melt)(5-7), climatology (for example, snow, sea-ice albedo and melt)(8,9) and ecology (for example, water and food availability)(5,10).",Towards a rain-dominated Arctic,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2328048,"Climate change is a phenomenon that is unequivocally altering the natural systems in all parts of the world but the alteration in climate extremes may pose more severe and unexpected impacts on Pakistan. The current study provides a comprehensive outlook of observation (1976-2005) and changes in climate extremes between the reference (1976-2005) and future periods (2020s: 2006-2035, 2050s: 2036-2065 and 2080s: 2066-2095). The analysis was conducted across six sub-regions of Pakistan including North Pakistan (NP), Monsoon Region (MR), Khyber Palchtunlchwa (1(P), Southern Punjab (SP), Balochistan and Sindh for which Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 14 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 were downscaled and bias corrected by three statistical downscaling methods. The spatial disaggregation and quantile delta mapping (SDQDM) method was used for future projections in this study. Changes in climate extremes were detected by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In case of temperature, the results indicate a projected increase in frequencies and magnitudes for warm extremes, while it is decreasing for cold extremes in the 21st century. The corresponding trends of maximum and minimum temperature extremes are greater than the mean temperature trend; where the frequency and magnitude of minimum temperature extremes is higher than maximum temperature extremes over Pakistan particularly over North in last half of the 21st century for both RCPs. Also, the average of temperature extremes (TXx, TXn, TNx and TNn) are severe in the order of NP (+ 4.8 degrees C), KP (+ 4.6 degrees C) and MR (+ 4.5 degrees C). In the case of precipitation extremes, most of the sub-regions across Pakistan show a higher increase in total annual precipitation and intense precipitation events with the highest increase in MR, KP and NP and the least increase in Sindh. Despite the increase in total precipitation, numbers of consecutive dry days (CDD) are increasing while consecutive wet days (CWD) are decreasing which can give rise to drought conditions particularly in Sindh. The study provides complementary and consistent climate extremes information over Pakistan for local decision makers to incorporate into policy-making, disaster management, and infrastructure planning.",Assessment of climate extremes in future projections downscaled by multiple statistical downscaling methods over Pakistan,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+79514,"This study investigated the influence of evapotranspiration on future drought risk using bivariate drought frequency curves. Two different drought indices were used; SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) which considers precipitation variation only and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) which takes into account both precipitation and evapotranspiration variations. After generating the drought indices under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC, drought frequency analyses were performed and drought risks were estimated based on the joint quantiles of drought duration and severity. As a result, significant differences of drought risk were identified between SPI-and SPEI-based drought analyses using RCP 8.5 projections; mainly, the SPEI-based drought risk increases entirely across South Korea compared with the SPI-based drought risk. The outcomes of this study would be useful to develop comprehensive drought mitigation plans to cope with future climate change.",Influence of Evapotranspiration on Future Drought Risk Using Bivariate Drought Frequency Curves,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1252589,"Governments and scientists are concerned about the negative impacts of climate change on humanity in the foreseeable future, especially for the city sustainable development. Smart Grid is an important infrastructure service for developing the energy efficiency and low carbon society. The reliability and efficiency of our electrical grid can be enhanced by implementing smart grid technology; however this would require modifications to the current electrical system. The objective of this paper is to find out the innovation strategy for future smart grid by investigate, analyze and evaluate the related technologies and competitive information of different nations and industries. We presented the key information about smart grid development in the world. We also proposed four practical smart grid innovation strategies and innovation model for smart-green city policy making, construction and administration.",Smart Grid Innovation Strategy for Low-Carbon City Administration,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+405422,"Responsiveness of Lepidoptera phenology to climate has been detected in a number of species during the current trend in global warming. There is still a question of whether climate signals would be evident in historical data. In this paper we examine the climatic response of 155 species of moths and butterflies collected during the period 1866-1884 in Wiltshire, southern England. In general, species responded to increased temperature in the previous October by delayed appearance and to increased temperature in the current spring by advanced appearance. Thus, differential changes in temperatures of the autumn and spring could well affect changes in the relative pattern of the phenology of species. Attributes influencing the species' ecology were examined to see if they influenced temperature responsiveness. In general, few consistent effects emerged, though responsiveness to climate was found to be greater for species eclosing later in the year, specifically to the previous autumn temperatures.. and to hibernal environment, increasingly for species less exposed to air temperatures. These findings warn against expecting simple responses to climate warming.",Complex phenological responses to climate warming trends? Lessons from history,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+83922,"The distribution and abundance of seagrass ecosystems could change significantly over the coming century due to sea level rise (SLR). Coastal managers require mechanistic understanding of the processes affecting seagrass response to SLR to maximize their conservation and associated provision of ecosystem services. In Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia, vast seagrass meadows supporting populations of sea turtles and dugongs are juxtaposed with the multiple stressors associated with a large and rapidly expanding human population. Here, the interactive effects of predicted SLR, changes in water clarity, and land use on future distributions of seagrass in Moreton Bay were quantified. A habitat distribution model of present day seagrass in relation to benthic irradiance and wave height was developed which correctly classified habitats in 83% of cases. Spatial predictions of seagrass and presence derived from the model and bathymetric data were used to initiate a SLR inundation model. Bathymetry was iteratively modified based on SLR and sedimentary accretion in seagrass to simulate potential seagrass habitat at 10 year time steps until 2100. The area of seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 under a scenario of SLR of 1.1m. A scenario including the removal of impervious surfaces, such as roads and houses, from newly inundated regions, demonstrated that managed retreat of the shoreline could potentially reduce the overall decline in seagrass habitat to just 5%. The predicted reduction in area of seagrass habitat could be offset by an improvement in water clarity of 30%. Greater improvements in water clarity would be necessary for larger magnitudes of SLR. Management to improve water quality will provide present and future benefits to seagrasses under climate change and should be a priority for managers seeking to compensate for the effects of global change on these valuable habitats.",Coastal retreat and improved water quality mitigate losses of seagrass from sea level rise,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+227441,"Some scholars have argued that the formation and outburst of an ancient dammed lake in the Jishi Gorge at ca. 3700 cal yr BP resulted in the destruction of Lajia, the site of a famous prehistoric disaster in the Guanting Basin, upper Yellow River valley, China. However, the cause of the dammed lake and the exact age of the dam breaching are still debated. We investigated ancient landslides and evidence for the dammed lake in the Jishi Gorge, including dating of soil from the shear zone of an ancient landslide, sediments of the ancient dammed lake, and loess above lacustrine sediments using radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating methods. Six radiocarbon dates and two OSL dates suggested that the ancient landslides and dammed lake events in the Jishi Gorge probably occurred around 8100 cal yr BP, and the ancient dammed lake was breached between 6780 cal yr BP and 5750 cal yr BP. Hence, the outburst of the ancient dammed lake in the Jishi Gorge was unrelated to the ruin of the Lajia site, but likely resulted in flood disasters in the Guanting Basin around 6500 cal yr BP. (C) 2013 University of Washington. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.","Ancient landslide-dam events in the Jishi Gorge, upper Yellow River valley, China",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+498535,"Glaciers of the conterminous United States have been receding for the past century. Since 1900 the recession has varied from a 24 % loss in area (Mt. Rainier, Washington) to a 66 % loss in the Lewis Range of Montana. The rates of retreat are generally similar with a rapid loss in the early decades of the 20th century, slowing in the 1950s-1970s, and a resumption of rapid retreat starting in the 1990s. Decadal estimates of changes in glacier area for a subset of 31 glaciers from 1900 to 2000 are used to test a snow water equivalent model that is subsequently employed to examine the effects of temperature and precipitation variability on annual glacier area changes for these glaciers. Model results indicate that both winter precipitation and winter temperature have been important climatic factors affecting the variability of glacier variability during the 20th Century. Most of the glaciers analyzed appear to be more sensitive to temperature variability than to precipitation variability. However, precipitation variability is important, especially for high elevation glaciers. Additionally, glaciers with areas greater than 1 km(2) are highly sensitive to variability in temperature.",Glacier variability in the conterminous United States during the twentieth century,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2365782,"Indigenous communities rely extensively on plants for food, shelter, and medicine. It is still unknown, however, to what degree their survival is jeopardized by the loss of either plant species or knowledge about their services. To fill this gap, here we introduce indigenous knowledge networks describing the wisdom of indigenous people on plant species and the services they provide. Our results across 57 Neotropical communities show that cultural heritage is as important as plants for preserving indigenous knowledge both locally and regionally. Indeed, knowledge networks collapse as fast when plant species are driven extinct as when cultural diffusion, either within or among communities, is lost. But it is the joint loss of plant species and knowledge that erodes these networks at a much higher rate. Our findings pave the road toward integrative policies that recognize more explicitly the inseparable links between cultural and biological heritage.",Indigenous knowledge networks in the face of global change,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+34432,"The East River in the Pearl River basin, China, plays a vital role in the water supply for mega-cities within and in the vicinity of the Pearl River Delta. Knowledge of statistical variability of streamflow is therefore important for water resources management in the basin. This study analyzed streamflow from four hydrological stations on the East River for a period of 1951-2009, using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) technique, scanning t and F tests. Results indicated increasing/decreasing streamflow in the East River basin before/after the 1980s. After the early 1970s, the high/low flow components were decreasing/increasing. CWT-based analysis demonstrates a significant impact of water reservoirs on the periodicity of streamflow. Scanning t and F test indicates that significantly abrupt changes in streamflow are largely influenced by both water reservoirs construction and precipitation changes. Thus, changes of streamflow, which are reflected by variations of trend, periodicity and abrupt change, are due to both water reservoir construction and precipitation changes. Further, the changes of volume of streamflow in the East River are in good agreement with precipitation changes. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Trend, periodicity and abrupt change in streamflow of the East River, the Pearl River basin",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2332484,"Changes in streamflow and sediment runoffs would affect the reservoir's functional operation and the construction of soil and water conservation measures in China's Loess Plateau. In this study, the long-term changes in streamflow and sediment were analyzed for a main stem section of the middle Yellow River where the to-be-built large Guxian Reservoir is to be located. Results showed that both streamflow and sediment had significant downward trends with the rates of -9.4m(3)s(-1)yr(-1) and -16.8 million tyr(-1), respectively, during the period of 1961-2017. Using the range of variability approach, the change of streamflow regime in its postimpact period (1986-2017) was subjected to the moderate alteration, whereas the alteration of sediment regime was moderate and severe for the first (1980-1996) and second (1997-2017) postimpact periods. As an example, the attribution analyses of annual streamflow and sediment changes were conducted in a typical tributary catchment (Qingjian River) on the right bank of Guxian Reservoir. For the periods of 1980-2002 and 2003-2016, climate variability occupied the primary and secondary proportions to both streamflow and sediment reductions, respectively. Overall, human activities demonstrated the underlying contribution to the sharp declines of streamflow and sediment, accounting for 68% and 74%, respectively, during the period of 1980-2016. We suggest that, based on the operational life of warping dams (built on gully for mitigating gully erosion by raising the gully-bed step-by-step), there are risks of flash flood and high sediment concentration events in the future because the streamflow/sediment-reducing infrastructures may be damaged by extreme rainstorms and in turn become the flood and sediment amplifiers.",Changes in streamflow and sediment for a planned large reservoir in the middle Yellow River,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1488274,"This study presents a multitemporal climatology of water excess and shortage during the 20th century in the La Plata Basin. The climatology is based on 0.5(o) x 0.5(o) grid across the region. We transform monthly precipitation series for each point into index series at different time scales using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). A month is under water excess (shortage) conditions at different time scales (i = 6, 9, 12, and 18 months), when SPI[i](j) > 1.5 (SPI[i](j) < 1.5), where j is the current month. Trends in precipitation were determined using mean regional series of average values over the entire basin. A month when more than 30% of the total basin is under water excesses (shortages) is defined as an excess (shortage) critical month. From the vulnerability point of view, we analyzed the occurrence of critical months. The number of excess critical months increase with time scale of index, and almost all the critical months occurred after 1950 as a consequence of the low-frequency precipitation pattern. That means a noticeable increase in the vulnerability to extended excesses (more than 30% of the area under water excesses) after 1950, especially over the Upper Parana and the Uruguay basins. For shortage critical months, the behavior depends on time scales. At large time scale (18 and 12 months), almost all the shortage critical months occurred in the period 1901-1950 and only at shorter time scale (9 and 6 months), some critical months appeared after 1950. That means a noteworthy decrease in the basin vulnerability to extended water shortage after 1950 and a moderate decrease in vulnerability to generalized shortage. If we analyze the frequency and mean duration of water excess and shortage events across the basin, we can appreciate that there is a tendency to relate higher frequency regions with regions with lower mean duration events, and conversely.",Climatology of water excesses and shortages in the La Plata Basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2327805,"Microbial biofilms are multicellular communities of sessile microorganisms encased by the hydrated polymeric matrix. They have significant influences on both aquatic/terrestrial ecosystem and anthropogenic activities. Taking advantage of the governing features of selective stress (Tan and Ng in Water Res 42:1122-1132, 2008; Wei in Water Res 45:863-871, 2011; Dereli in Water Res 59C:11-22, 2014), the evenness of microbial communities in a membrane-centered mesocosm was successfully manipulated. By measuring the biofilm growing rates under different evenness levels of communities, an evenly distributed community favors the formation of biofilms was observed. This finding is not only a new evidence linking biofilm diversity to its functionality but also a clear suggestion on controlling a biofilm-based process via a simple and smart way.",Egalitarianism in Biofilms,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3896151,"The description and locality of the new to Russia lichen species Fuscopannaria cheiroloba, found in the Kilgan Mountains (Magadan Region) are reported. The species is characterized by elongated fan-shaped marginal squamules, epruinose not-felted squamule margins, convex apothecia without thalline margin. Based on the analysis of the localities of the species in North America and in Central Asia a conclusion was made that its ecological range is quite broad: it occurs in the mountains located in different solar zones and in the regions of different degrees of continentality/oceanity of the climate - from subtropics to the northern latitudes of the boreal zone. In areas with a continental climate it is confined to the highlands (to 4650 m a. s. l.), and in regions with a humid climate it also inhabits in the forest belt (at 200-400 m a. s. l.). F. cheiroloba has the Asian-North American areal. It is a terricolous bryophilous species, living also on mossy stones and rocks, more rarely on tree trunks. © 2018 Altai State University. All rights reserved.","Fuscopannaria cheiroloba (Pannariaceae), a new to Russia lichen species",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+654869,"A semi-distributed hydrological model and reservoir optimization algorithm are used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on existing and proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico. Inter-annual climatic variability, a bimodal precipitation regime and climate change uncertainties present challenges to water resource management in the region. Hydrological assessments are conducted for three meteorological products during a historical period and a future climate change scenario. Historical (1990-2000) and future (2031-2040) projections were derived from a mesoscale model forced with boundary conditions from a general circulation model under a high emissions scenario. The results reveal significantly higher precipitation, reservoir inflows, elevations and releases in the future relative to historical simulations. Furthermore, hydrological seasonality might be altered with a shift toward earlier water supply during the North American monsoon. The proposed infrastructure would have a limited ability to ameliorate future conditions, with more benefits in a tributary with lower flood hazard. These projections of the impacts of climate change and its interaction with infrastructure should be of interest to water resources managers in arid and semi-arid regions. [GRAPHICS] Editor D. Koutsoyiannis","Hydrological assessment of proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico, under historical and future climate scenarios",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1813143,"Climate change may lead to both increased heat and ozone (O-3) levels in urban areas over the coming century. To assess potential human health impacts of these changes, models are needed for projecting regional-scale temperature and O-3 changes under climate change, and for characterizing the independent and joint health effects of heat and O-3. To meet these needs, mortality transfer functions for summer heat and O-3 were developed and applied in a regional health risk assessment for the New York City metropolitan region. The objective was to analyze and project the relative impacts of climate-related changes in mean daily temperature and 1-hour maximum O-3 concentrations on acute non-accidental mortality from all internal causes of death. Exposure-response relationships were developed using a 10-year record of daily summer observations for the region (1990-1999). This was done using a time series Poisson regression model that jointly estimated O-3 and temperature effects on mortality, controlling for time trends and day of week effects. To project impacts into future decades, we developed a integrated modeling system that took global scale climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 and B2 emission scenario assumptions, and down-scaled these to a 36 km grid using regional models for climate and air quality. Regional downscaling was carried out using the GISS-MM5 linked global-regional model system for climate and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for air quality. Mortality risks were projected using the transfer functions estimated from the 1990s data. Results showed that both O-3 and heat stress had measurable impacts on mortality risk, but that the relative impacts changed over time. This modeling strategy could be applied in other metropolitan areas and for other health outcomes to assess health impacts of heat and O-3 under a changing climate.",Impacts of heat and ozone on mortality risk in the New York City metropolitan region under a changing climate,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3742838,"Background: Clinical placements are essential in preparing students for professional practice. Given the serious negative impact of stigma on people with lived experiences of mental illness, it is essential to explore whether the educational setting of a clinical placement can influence mental health stigma. Aims: Using a Self-Determination Theory lens, this study aimed to examine whether the educational setting of a clinical placemen influences the stigma of undergraduate nursing students toward people with lived experiences of mental illness. Design: Quasi-experimental; pre-test post-test. Methods: Ninety-nine undergraduate students enrolled in an accredited nursing program within Australia completed two surveys pre- and post-clinical placement. The surveys measured the educational setting (learning climate) and mental health stigma (social distance). Findings: Students who partook in an Autonomy-Supportive mental health clinical placement reported a significant decrease in stigma from pre-to-post placement, whereas the Balanced/Neutral group reported a significant increase in stigma from pre-to-post-placement. Discussion: The findings of this research have considerable implications for nursing facilitators and preceptors. Those that support autonomy amongst future nursing professionals are more likely to positively influence students’ mental health stigma. Those who do not promote an autonomy-supportive setting may actually worsen mental health stigma. Conclusion: The educational setting in which a clinical placement occurs can influence nursing students’ mental health stigma. © 2019 Australian College of Nursing Ltd",Mental health stigma and undergraduate nursing students: A self-determination theory perspective,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+585707,"Future sea level rise caused by climate change would disrupt the physical processes, economic activities, and social systems in coastal regions. Based on a hypothetical global sea level increase of one to six meters, we developed GIS methods to assess and visualize the global impacts of potential inundation using the best available global datasets. After susceptible areas were delineated, we estimated that the size of the areas is between 1.055 (one meter) to 2.193 million km(2) (six meters). Population in the susceptible areas was estimated to range from 108 (one meter) to 431 million (six meters) people, Among the seven land-cover types in the susceptible areas, forest and grassland account for more than 60 percent for all the increments of sea level rise. A Suite Of interactive visualization products was also developed to understand and communicate the ramifications of potential sea level rise.",GIS Analysis of Global Impacts from Sea Level Rise,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+791474,"Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of 'Continental Europe'. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50-100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40-50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.",Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2151577,"Future changes projected in surface temperature and precipitation behave differently in different regions or watersheds and vary greatly in space and time, even within the same region under climate change. This study aims to detect and compare differences in the climatological characteristics in response to climate change in arid and humid areas. Based on the CN05.1 reanalysis gridded dataset (high-resolution climate model validation launched by China Meteorological Administration) and output from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the projected responses of temperature and precipitation to climate change under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in the arid basin (the Tarim River Basin, the TRB) and the humid basin (the Yangtze River Basin, the YRB) were characterized. Our results show that the swings of annual temperature and precipitation will extend with the rising emission scenarios in the future, while those are more vulnerable in the TRB. The topography-related changes of temperature and precipitation were further evaluated to explore the uncertainty. The elevation-dependent warming (EDW) may be weakened but still hold in the future at the watershed scale. Change in precipitation will decrease with increase in elevation in the TRB, while it will increase in the YRB. Compared with the general growth in seasonal temperature, precipitation shows more striking changes during spring and winter under climate change. Further researches to improve our understanding of the projected changes in temperature and precipitation are needed for better prediction of extreme weather conditions, such as drought and floods.",CMIP5 projected changes in temperature and precipitation in arid and humid basins,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+370428,"Background: Windthrow, the uprooting of trees during storms associated with strong winds, is a well-established cause of mortality in temperate regions of the world, often with large ecological consequences. However, this phenomenon has received little attention within arid regions and is not well documented in southern Africa. Slow rates of post-disturbance recovery and projected increases in extreme weather events in arid areas mean that windthrow could be more common and have bigger impacts on these ecosystems in the future. This is of concern due to slow rates of post-disturbance recovery in arid systems and projected increases in extreme weather events in these areas. This study investigated the spatial pattern, magnitude and likely causes of windthrown mortality in relation to other forms of mortality in Aloe dichotoma, an iconic arid-adapted arborescent succulent and southern Africa climate change indicator species. Results: We found that windthrown mortality was greatest within the equatorward summer rainfall zone (SRZ) of its distribution (mean = 31%, n = 11), and was derived almost exclusively from the larger adult age class. A logistic modelling exercise indicated that windthrown mortality was strongly associated with greater amounts of warm season (summer) rainfall in the SRZ, higher wind speeds, and leptosols. A statistically significant interaction term between higher summer rainfall and wind speeds further increased the odds of being windthrown. While these results would benefit from improvements in the resolution of wind and substrate data, they do support the hypothesised mechanism for windthrow in A. dichotoma. This involves powerful storm gusts associated with either the current or subsequent rainfall event, heavy convective rainfall, and an associated increase in soil malleability. Shallow rooting depths in gravel-rich soils and an inflexible, top-heavy canopy structure make individuals especially prone to windthrown mortality during storms. Conclusions: Results highlight the importance of this previously unrecognised form of mortality in A. dichotoma, especially since it seems to disproportionately affect reproductively mature adult individuals in an infrequently recruiting species. Smaller, more geographically isolated and adult dominated populations in the summer rainfall zone are likely to be more vulnerable to localised extinction due to windthrow events.",Blow me down: A new perspective on Aloe dichotoma mortality from windthrow,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3314143,"This paper analyzes whether migration is an adaptation strategy that households employ to cope with climate in Nigeria. We estimate our model using the cross-sectional variation in climate and long-term migration decisions because we are interested in the average response to long-term climatic conditions. For households that operate farms, we find that the relationship between climate and migration is nonlinear. In particular, climates closer to ideal farming conditions are associated with a higher propensity to migrate, whereas in the least favorable climatic conditions, the propensity to migrate declines. The marginal effect of rainfall and temperature changes on migration varies by season. We estimate the impact of climate change on the number of migrant households in 2031-2060 and 2071-2100, ceteris paribus. With current population levels, climate change generates between 3.6 and 6.3 million additional migrants, most of them being internal. However, these estimates are not statistically significant.",DOES HARMFUL CLIMATE INCREASE OR DECREASE MIGRATION? EVIDENCE FROM RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN NIGERIA,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1440094,"The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be approximate to 0.600.07 degrees C/decade in the Arctic (>64 degrees N) compared to approximate to 0.17 degrees C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of approximate to 3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of approximate to 11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by -2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of approximate to 34.0Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of approximate to 215Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented. For further resources related to this article, please visit the . Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article.",Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+594405,"The Andes Cordillera acts as regional ""Water Towers"" for several countries and encompasses a wide range of ecosystems and climates. Several hydroclimatic changes have been described for portions of the Andes during recent years, including glacier retreat, negative precipitation trends, an elevation rise in the 0A degrees isotherm, and changes in regional streamflow regimes. The Temperate-Mediterranean transition (TMT) zone of the Andes (35.5A degrees aEuro""39.5A degrees S) is particularly at risk to climate change because it is a biodiversity hotspot with heavy human population pressure on water resources. In this paper we utilize a new tree-ring network of Austrocedrus chilensis to reconstruct past variations in regional moisture in the TMT of the Andes by means of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The reconstruction covers the past 657 years and captures interannual to decadal scales of variability in late spring-early summer PDSI. These changes are related to the north-south oscillations in moisture conditions between the Mediterranean and Temperate climates of the Andes as a consequence of the latitudinal position of the storm tracks forced by large-scale circulation modes. Kernel estimation of occurrence rates reveals an unprecedented increment of severe and extreme drought events during the last century in the context of the previous six centuries. Moisture conditions in our study region are linked to tropical and high-latitude ocean-atmospheric forcing, with PDSI positively related to Nio-3.4 SST during spring and strongly negatively correlated with the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) during summer. Geopotential anomaly maps at 500-hPa show that extreme dry years are tightly associated with negative height anomalies in the Ross-Amundsen Seas, in concordance with the strong negative relationship between PDSI and AAO. The twentieth century increase in extreme drought events in the TMT may not be related to ENSO but to the positive AAO trend during late-spring and summer resulting from a gradual poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks. This first PDSI reconstruction for South America demonstrates the highly significant hindcast skill of A. chilensis as an aridity proxy.",Aridity changes in the Temperate-Mediterranean transition of the Andes since ad 1346 reconstructed from tree-rings,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+222948,"The cumulative impacts of urban land use change on natural stream flow regimes and lotic ecosystems are poorly understood, and generally under-studied within the hydrologic sciences literature. Moreover, flow assessments using daily or monthly flows cannot adequately characterize long-term trends in event-scale flow dynamics in urbanizing watersheds. Accordingly, we analyzed high temporal resolution (15-min flows) growing season discharge records for two urbanizing watersheds in Canada's Great Lakes Basin, the Don and Humber, over a 42-year period. Results show that total discharge between May 26th and November 15th in the mainstem rivers has increased by about 45%, independent of total rainfall depth, over four decades. Peak rain event flow rates have increased by about 1 m(3) s(-1) yr(-1) in both watersheds and event flow variability has increased two-fold in the Don and five-fold in the Humber. In the Don, the ratio of rising limb event flows to median flow (for the period May 26 to November 15) increased from 13 in the 1970s to 21 in the 2000s. A similar comparison of ratios in the Humber showed higher variation in flow response but also an overall increase relative to the ratio of 14 in the 1970s. In the Don, rising limb event flow acceleration increased 2.4-fold over 4 decades. This study provides a new understanding of the changes in event-scale flow regime dynamics associated with over four decades of intensive urbanization, including increased magnitude of rising limb flows and flow acceleration, and systematic increases in the variability of peak discharges. Overall, our analysis demonstrates marked alteration in total and event flow regimes resulting in chronic perturbation of stream flows. The results also demonstrate an important application of long-term, high temporal resolution hydrological records. Furthermore, we quantify the degree to which hydrologic stationarity within the Don and Humber watersheds has been compromised over four decades, during a period prior to detectable climate-induced changes in rainfall patterns. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Change in event-scale hydrologic response in two urbanizing watersheds of the Great Lakes St Lawrence Basin 1969-2010,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+732297,"Global warming and ocean acidification are among the most important stressors for aquatic ecosystems in the future. To investigate their direct and indirect effects on a near-natural plankton community, a multiple-stressor approach is needed. Hence, we set up mesocosms in a full-factorial design to study the effects of both warming and high CO2 on a Baltic Sea autumn plankton community, concentrating on the impacts on microzooplankton (MZP). MZP abundance, biomass, and species composition were analysed over the course of the experiment. We observed that warming led to a reduced time-lag between the phytoplankton bloom and an MZP biomass maximum. MZP showed a significantly higher growth rate and an earlier biomass peak in the warm treatments while the biomass maximum was not affected. Increased pCO(2) did not result in any significant effects on MZP biomass, growth rate, or species composition irrespective of the temperature, nor did we observe any significant interactions between CO2 and temperature. We attribute this to the high tolerance of this estuarine plankton community to fluctuations in pCO(2), often resulting in CO2 concentrations higher than the predicted end-of-century concentration for open oceans. In contrast, warming can be expected to directly affect MZP and strengthen its coupling with phytoplankton by enhancing its grazing pressure.",Effects of high CO2 and warming on a Baltic Sea microzooplankton community,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+203009,"The aim of this paper is to provide the community with a comprehensive overview of the studies of glaciers in the tropical Andes conducted in recent decades leading to the current status of the glaciers in the context of climate change. In terms of changes in surface area and length, we show that the glacier retreat in the tropical Andes over the last three decades is unprecedented since the maximum extension of the Little Ice Age (LIA, mid-17th-early 18th century). In terms of changes in mass balance, although there have been some sporadic gains on several glaciers, we show that the trend has been quite negative over the past 50 yr, with a mean mass balance deficit for glaciers in the tropical Andes that is slightly more negative than the one computed on a global scale. A break point in the trend appeared in the late 1970s with mean annual mass balance per year decreasing from -0.2mw. e. in the period 1964-1975 to -0.76mw. e. in the period 1976-2010. In addition, even if glaciers are currently retreating everywhere in the tropical Andes, it should be noted that this is much more pronounced on small glaciers at low altitudes that do not have a permanent accumulation zone, and which could disappear in the coming years/decades. Monthly mass balance measurements performed in Bolivia, Ecuador and Colombia show that variability of the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean is the main factor governing variability of the mass balance at the decadal timescale. Precipitation did not display a significant trend in the tropical Andes in the 20th century, and consequently cannot explain the glacier recession. On the other hand, temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.10 degrees C decade(-1) in the last 70 yr. The higher frequency of El Nino events and changes in its spatial and temporal occurrence since the late 1970s together with a warming troposphere over the tropical Andes may thus explain much of the recent dramatic shrinkage of glaciers in this part of the world.",Current state of glaciers in the tropical Andes: a multi-century perspective on glacier evolution and climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+554652,"Climate change is causing measurable change in rainfall patterns with uncertain implications for key processes in ecosystem function and carbon cycling. We conducted a modeling analysis to identify how variation in amount and frequency of precipitation affected on CO2 fluxes and net primary productivity. The denitrification-decomposition model was used to quantify the effects of altered precipitation quantity and frequency under 12 climate scenarios over a period of 30-years on both a fenced and a moderately grazed temperate steppe in Inner Mongolia, China. The modeling results show the 12 climate scenarios had an obvious effect on gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R-e) and net primary productivity (NPP) in both a fenced and a grazed site. GPP, R-e and NPP increased in both sites under increased precipitation scenarios called A3 (+20% precipitation) and A4 (+40%) when compared with baseline conditions, while GPP, R-e and NPP declined under decreased precipitation scenarios A1 (-40% precipitation) and A2 (-20%) scenarios. The changed rainfall frequency resulted in a decline in GPP, R-e and NPP compared with those parameters under the base conditions at both sites. The ecologically effective rainfall (ER), not total rainfall, controls the ecosystem CO2 sink/source function. When ER exceeded 318 mm yr(-1) in the fenced site and 224 mm yr(-1) in the grazed site, the steppe switched from CO2 emission to CO2 absorption. CO2 fluxes in the typical steppe which was fenced and moderately grazed are relatively responsive to changes in the amount of rainfall. However, in terms of the long-term modeling analysis, the modeled results suggest the effects of altered rainfall quantity, frequency and the interaction of rainfall quantity and frequency on CO2 fluxes and plant productivity had no significant difference because of the fluctuating interannual biotic and abiotic factors. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Is frequency or amount of precipitation more important in controlling CO2 fluxes in the 30-year-old fenced and the moderately grazed temperate steppe?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+771875,"Anomalously warm sea surface temperature events are increasing in frequency, generating global concern regarding the adaptive and acclimatizing capacities of corals. Staghorn Acropora corals, important ecologically as habitat structurers, are particularly vulnerable to temperature- related bleaching. Here, we report a catastrophic mass mortality event that affected shallow staghorn communities in Guam, Micronesia. Mortality began in conjunction with a mass bleaching event in late 2013, initiated by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures and doldrum winds over a 4 mo period. A second warming event followed less than 8 mo later, concurrent with a period of extreme low tides resulting in repeated periods of subaerial exposure of shallow corals. This combination of stressors acted synergistically to trigger an extended mass mortality event. In 2015, we conducted rapid assessment surveys of 7 species in 21 previously mapped populations to determine mortality extent and pattern. Mortality from these combined environmental stressors resulted in a 53 +/- 10% reduction in Guam's staghorn population, covering an estimated 17.5 ha of coral communities. Greater water circulation appeared to be associated with higher survival during both warm temperature periods and extreme low tides; populations in slightly deeper water, closer to well-flushed reef margins, showed lower mortality. A better understanding of the environmental drivers of the mortality patterns we observed is currently being applied to developing strategies to restore and manage remaining populations.",Anomalous temperatures and extreme tides: Guam staghorn Acropora succumb to a double threat,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+777639,"Forests absorb carbon dioxide through photosynthesis and also can release it back into the atmosphere through natural disturbances and management activities. In this study, the impact of different carbon policies on a landowner's management decisions is analyzed at the stand level. Wildfires as a random natural phenomenon and forestry prescribed burning as a fuel treatment tool are all considered within the framework of a generalized Faustmann model. The results reveal that harvesting rotations and land values can be affected by the level and pattern of wildfire risk, and additionally, the consideration of carbon in variots policies. In response to different carbon policies, the optimal time of prescribed burning Only varies slightly, but its intensity can experience much larger variations. If the landowner needs to pay for carbon emission from prescribed burning but not from a wildfire, the optimal strategy is to conduct the prescribed burning more lightly and later than in the base scenario. Overall, participation in a carbon program results in a higher land expectation value, which is beneficial to the landowner. These research findings are helpful for understanding the relation between carbon policies and the behavior of landowners, and furthermore, for improving carbon policy designs. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Forest management with wildfire risk, prescribed burning and diverse carbon policies",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+383237,"Given the role that transport plays in causing green house gas emissions, any serious action on climate change will zoom in on the transport sector., Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Tokyo, January 2009 With the global environmental changing and energy scarcity, human pay attention to the living conditions. Automobiles, consuming energy and emitting harmful substance, become the focus of attention. To minimize such emission the automobile engineers have been working relentlessly. Researchers have been trying hard to switch fossil fuel to alternative fuels and attempting to various driving strategies to make traffic flow smooth and to reduce traffic congestion and emission of greenhouse gas. Automobile emits a massive amount of pollutants such as Carbon Monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), carbon dioxide (CO2), particulate matter (PM), and oxides of nitrogen (NOx). This paper investigates the ITS techniques and technologies for the reduction of fuel consumption and minimization of the exhaust pollutant. It highlights the environmental impact of the ITS application to provide the state-of-art green solution. y. Both the environmental concern and availability of fuels greatly affect fuel trends for transportation vehicles. © 2015 IEEE.",Intelligent transport systems a comprehensive way to regulate and curb vehicular pollution,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1282771,"Many of the studies that analyze the future impact of climate change on mortality assume that the temperature that constitutes a heat wave will not change over time. This is unlikely, however, given the process of adapting to heat changes, prevention plans, and improvements in social and health infrastructure. The objective of this study is to analyze whether, during the 1983-2013 period, there has been a temporal change in the maximum daily temperatures that constitute a heat wave (Tthreshold) in Spain, and to investigate whether there has been variation in the attributable risk (AR) associated with mortality due to high temperatures in this period. This study uses daily mortality data for natural causes except accidents CIEX: A00-R99 in municipalities of over 10,000 inhabitants in 10 Spanish provinces and maximum temperature data from observatories located in province capitals. The time series is divided into three periods: 1983-1992, 1993-2003 and 2004-2013. For each period and each province, the value of Tthreshold was calculated using scatter-plot diagram of the daily mortality pre-whitened series. For each period and each province capitals, it has been calculated the number of heat waves and quantifying the impact on mortality through generalized linear model (GLM) methodology with the Poisson regression link. These models permits obtained the relative risks (RR) and attributable risks (AR). Via a meta-analysis, using the Global RR and AR were calculated the heat impact for the total of the 10 provinces. The results show that in the first two periods RR remained constant RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.09 1.19) and RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.10 1.18), while the third period shows a sharp decrease with respect to the prior two periods RR: 1.01 (CI95%: 1.00 1.01); the difference is statistically significant. In Spain there has been a sharp decrease in mortality attributable to heat over the past 10 years. The observed variation in RR puts into question the results of numerous studies that analyze the future impact of heat on mortality in different temporal scenarios and show it to be constant over time.",Time trend in the impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Spain for a period of over thirty years (1983-2013),1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+674978,"Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish(1), adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability(2). Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries(3). Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (mean +3.4%) from present yields. Among the nations showing a high dependency on fisheries(3), climate change is predicted to increase productive potential in West Africa and decrease it in South and Southeast Asia. Despite projected human population increases and assuming that per capita fish consumption rates will be maintained(1), ongoing technological development in the aquaculture industry suggests that projected global fish demands in 2050 could be met, thus challenging existing predictions of inevitable shortfalls in fish supply by the mid-twenty-first century(4). This conclusion, however, is contingent on successful implementation of strategies for sustainable harvesting and effective distribution of wild fish products from nations and regions with a surplus to those with a deficit. Changes in management effectiveness(2) and trade practices(5) will remain the main influence on realized gains or losses in global fish production.",Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1535320,"Australia's monsoonal tropics are dominated by the largest and least modified savanna woodlands in the world, and they are globally significant for their high biodiversity and regional endemism. Despite this, there have been very few molecular studies of the evolutionary origins and diversification of vertebrates in this region. The semi-arboreal dragon lizards of Lophognathus and Amphibolurus are widely distributed in the savanna and dry sclerophyll woodlands of Australasia, including the monsoon tropics. We sequenced a similar to 1400 bp region of mitochondrial DNA and a similar to 1400 bp nuclear gene (RAG1) to investigate the phylogenetic relationships and phylogeographic structuring of all seven species of Lophognathus and Amphibolurus. Our analyses show that there is a higher level of species and generic diversity in the monsoon tropics than previously thought, and a full morphological review and taxonomic revision of these genera is required. Relaxed molecular clock analyses indicate that species across both genera originated in the late Miocene and early Pliocene, with significant phylogeographic structure within species. We did not find any evidence that the monsoon tropics species were a monophyletic group that had diversified within the region; instead Amphibolurus and Lophognathus represent at least three independent evolutionary colonizations of the monsoon tropics. It is probable that the origins and phylogeographic patterns of the northern Lophognathus species have evolved under the climatic influence of the Australian monsoon, rather than being either an ancient Gondwanan lineage that pre-dates the monsoon or the result of a more recent dispersal event across Wallace's Line. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.",Evolutionary origins and diversification of dragon lizards in Australia's tropical savannas,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+457466,"Interdecadal variability characteristics of ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical areas are investigated by using atmospheric reanalysis data and oceanic dataset. Results indicate that due to the ocean-atmosphere system's internal adjustment on interdecadal time scales, the exchanges of latent heat and sensible heat between the ocean and atmosphere are reduced by means of weakening trade wind, causing oceanic thermocline anomalies and resulting in unusual warming of sea surface temperature in the central and eastern Pacific. Meanwhile the increases of sea surface temperature facilitate much more development of convection in the eastern Pacific and excite a local ascending motion in the eastern and anomalous westerlies in the central and eastern Pacific, which further weaken the Walker circulation, and vice versa. Thus these processes constitute an interdecadal mode of positive feedback. This interdecadal feedback of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system is different from the previous conclusion of a so-called midlatitude-driving mechanism, which was used to explain the decadal variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean.",A local positive feedback of the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system on interdecadal timescales,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+465191,"Large-scale biogeographical changes in the biodiversity of a key zooplankton group (calanoid copepods) were detected in the north-eastern part of the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas over the period 1960-1999. These findings provided key empirical evidence for climate change impacts on marine ecosystems at the regional to oceanic scale. Since 1999, global temperatures have continued to rise in the region. Here, we extend the analysis to the period 1958-2005 using all calanoid copepod species assemblages (nine species assemblages based on an analysis including a total of 108 calanoid species or taxa) and show that this phenomenon has been reinforced in all regions. Our study reveals that the biodiversity of calanoid copepods are responding quickly to sea surface temperature (SST) rise by moving geographically northward at a rapid rate up to about 23.16 km yr(-1). Our analysis suggests that nearly half of the increase in sea temperature in the northeast Atlantic and adjacent seas is related to global temperature rises (46.35% of the total variance of temperature) while changes in both natural modes of atmospheric and oceanic circulation explain 26.45% of the total variance of temperature. Although some SST isotherms have moved northwards by an average rate of up to 21.75 km yr(-1) (e.g. the North Sea), their movement cannot fully quantify all species assemblage shifts. Furthermore, the observed rates of biogeographical movements are far greater than those observed in the terrestrial realm. Here, we discuss the processes that may explain such a discrepancy and suggest that the differences are mainly explained by the fluid nature of the pelagic domain, the life cycle of the zooplankton and the lesser anthropogenic influence (e.g. exploitation, habitat fragmentation) on these organisms. We also hypothesize that despite changes in the path and intensity of the oceanic currents that may modify quickly and greatly pelagic zooplankton species, these organisms may reflect better the current impact of climate warming on ecosystems as terrestrial organisms are likely to significantly lag the current impact of climate change.",Rapid biogeographical plankton shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+569603,"Understanding climate-yield relationships and the impacts of recent climate trends on crop productivity on a large scale is an important step in predicting regional agricultural production. In this study we investigated climate-crop relationships, recent trends in seasonal climate (maximum and minimum temperatures, diurnal temperature range and precipitation) and their impacts on the yields of major crops (i.e. rice, wheat, maize and soybean) at provincial scales throughout China over the last few decades. We found that major crop yields were significantly related to growing season climate in the main production regions of China, and that growing season temperature had a generally significant warming trend. Due to the trends in growing season climate, total rice production in China was estimated to have increased by 3.2 x 10(5) t decade(-1) during the period 1951-2002; total production of wheat, maize and soybean changed by -1.2 x 10(5), -21.2 x 10(5) and 0.7 x 10(5) t decade(-1), respectively, during 1979-2002. The warming trend increased rice yield in northeast China and soybean in north and northeast China; however, it decreased maize yield in 7 provinces (autonomous region or municipality) and wheat yield in 3 provinces. Our analysis presents the general response patterns of regional agricultural productivity to seasonal climate variability and change over the last few decades. Crop response mechanisms to local seasonal climate change (and variability) need further investigation to better understand the patterns and predict future consequences of climate change and variability on regional agricultural production.",Climate-crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+77046,"The water resources of the western United States depend heavily on snowpack to store part of the wintertime precipitation into the drier summer months. A well-documented shift toward earlier runoff in recent decades has been attributed to 1) more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow and 2) earlier snowmelt. The present study addresses the former, documenting a regional trend toward smaller ratios of winter-total snowfall water equivalent (SFE) to winter-total precipitation (P) during the period 1949-2004. The trends toward reduced SFE are a response to warming across the region, with the most significant reductions occurring where winter wet-day minimum temperatures, averaged over the study period, were warmer than -5 degrees C. Most SFE reductions were associated with winter wet-day temperature increases between 0 degrees and -3 degrees C over the study period. Warmings larger than this occurred mainly at sites where the mean temperatures were cool enough that the precipitation form was less susceptible to warming trends. The trends toward reduced SFE/P ratios were most pronounced in March regionwide and in January near the West Coast, corresponding to widespread warming in these months. While mean temperatures in March were sufficiently high to allow the warming trend to produce SFE/P declines across the study region, mean January temperatures were cooler, with the result that January SFE/P impacts were restricted to the lower elevations near the West Coast. Extending the analysis back to 1920 shows that although the trends presented here may be partially attributable to interdecadal climate variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation, they also appear to result from still longer-term climate shifts.",Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the Western United States,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+523877,"This work investigates how climate change may affect streamflow in the water source area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The IPCC AR4 multi-mode climate models and weather generator were used to generate future possible local meteorological variables, which were downscaled and used in a SWAT model to simulate the future streamflow regime. The results exhibit a significant increase in temperature and a slight increase in precipitation over three benchmark periods. Streamflow decreases in the 2020s and increases after the 2040s. These results raise questions about the future availability of water resources.",Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in the water source area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+391437,"We implement a new stomatal conductance scheme, based on the optimality approach, within the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLEv2.0.1) land surface model. Coupled land-atmosphere simulations are then performed using CABLEv2.0.1 within the Australian Community Climate and Earth Systems Simulator (ACCESSv1.3b) with prescribed sea surface temperatures. As in most land surface models, the default stomatal conductance scheme only accounts for differences in model parameters in relation to the photosynthetic pathway but not in relation to plant functional types. The new scheme allows model parameters to vary by plant functional type, based on a global synthesis of observations of stomatal conductance under different climate regimes over a wide range of species. We show that the new scheme reduces the latent heat flux from the land surface over the boreal forests during the Northern Hemisphere summer by 0.5-1.0 mm day(-1). This leads to warmer daily maximum and minimum temperatures by up to 1.0 degrees C and warmer extreme maximum temperatures by up to 1.5 degrees C. These changes generally improve the climate model's climatology of warm extremes and improve existing biases by 10-20 %. The bias in minimum temperatures is however degraded but, overall, this is outweighed by the improvement in maximum temperatures as there is a net improvement in the diurnal temperature range in this region. In other regions such as parts of South and North America where ACCESSv1.3b has known large positive biases in both maximum and minimum temperatures (similar to 5 to 10 degrees C), the new scheme degrades this bias by up to 1 degrees C. We conclude that, although several large biases remain in ACCESSv1.3b for temperature extremes, the improvements in the global climate model over large parts of the boreal forests during the Northern Hemisphere summer which result from the new stomatal scheme, constrained by a global synthesis of experimental data, provide a valuable advance in the longterm development of the ACCESS modelling system.",Implementation of an optimal stomatal conductance scheme in the Australian Community Climate Earth Systems Simulator (ACCESS1.3b),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+165478,"Aim Apparent anthropogenic warming has been underway in South Africa for several decades, a period over which significant range shifts have been observed in some indigenous bird species. We asked whether these range shifts by birds are clearly consistent with either climate change or land use change being the primary driver. Location South Africa. Methods We categorized recent range changes among 408 South African terrestrial bird species and, using generalized linear mixed models, analysed ecological attributes of those species that have and have not changed their ranges. Results Fifty-six of the 408 taxa studied have undergone significant range shifts. Most extended their ranges towards the south (towards cooler latitudes, consistent with climate-change drivers) or west (towards drier and warmer habitats, inconsistent with climate drivers but consistent with land use drivers); very few moved east or north. Both southward and westward movers were habitat generalists. Furthermore, southward movers were mobile taxa (migrants and nomads), whereas westward movers were associated with human-modified elements in the landscape, such as croplands, plantations or buildings. Main conclusions The results suggest that both land use changes and climate change may simultaneously be influencing dynamic range shifts by South African birds, but separating the relative strengths of these two drivers is challenging, not least because both are operating concurrently and may influence some species simultaneously. Those species that respond to land use change by contracting their ranges are likely to be among the species that will be most impacted by climate change if land use practices with negative impacts are occurring in areas anticipated to become climatic refugia for these species. This highlights a pressing need to develop dynamic models of species' potential range shifts and changing abundances that incorporate population and dispersal processes, as well as ecological processes that influence habitat suitability.",Interrogating recent range changes in South African birds: confounding signals from land use and climate change present a challenge for attribution,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+484817,"In recent years, the phenomenon of global warming and its implications for the future of the human race have been intensively studied. In contrast, few quantitative studies have been attempted on the notable effects of past climatic changes upon human societies. This study explored the relationship between climatic change and war in China by comparing high-resolution paleo-climatic reconstructions with known war incidences in China in the last millennium. War frequencies showed a cyclic pattern that closely followed the global paleo-temperature changes. Strong and significant correlations were found between climatic change, war occurrence, harvest level, population size and dynastic transition. During cold phases, China suffered more often from frequent wars, population decline and dynastic changes. The quantitative analyses suggested that the reduction of thermal energy input during a cold phase would lower the land carrying capacity in the traditional agrarian society, and the population size, with significant accretions accrued in the previous warm phase, could not be sustained by the shrinking resource base. The stressed human-nature relationship generated a 'push force', leading to more frequent wars between states, regions and tribes, which could lead to the collapse of dynasties and collapses of human population size. War frequencies varied according to geographical locations (North, Central and South China) due to spatial variations in the physical environment and hence differential response to climatic change. Moreover, war occurrences demonstrated an obvious time lag after an episode of temperature fall, and the three geographical regions experienced different length of time lags. This research also shows that human population increases and collapses were correlated with the climatic phases and the social instabilities that were induced by climate changes during the last millennium. The findings proposed a new interpretation of human-nature relationship in the past, with implications for the impacts of anomalous global warming on future human conflicts.","Climatic change, wars and dynastic cycles in China over the last millennium",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3317458,"This study proposes a framework to evaluate extreme drought using the natural drought index, copula and hot spot analysis. The study area was South Korea. Data were used from 59 automatic synoptic observing system stations; the variable infiltration capacity model was used for the period from 1981 to 2016. The natural drought index was constructed from precipitation, runoff and soil moisture data, which reflect the water cycle. The average interval, duration and severity of extreme drought events were determined following Runs theory. The most extreme drought period occurred in 2014-2016, with 46 of the 59 weather stations exhibiting drought conditions and 78% exhibiting extreme drought conditions. The Inje and Seosan stations exhibited the longest drought duration of 6 months, the most severe drought was 5 times higher than the extreme drought severity threshold. The periods and locations of extreme drought were identified using the natural drought index corresponded to the historical droughts in South Korea. Furthermore, the joint return period of 50 years indicated the northeastern area of South Korea suffered from long-lasting and severe drought. Meanwhile, hot spot analysis was used to explore the extreme drought conditions and showed an increasing trend in the middle and northeastern parts of South Korea. Overall, this framework provides water resource managers with essential information about extreme events, extreme joint return periods, locations and significant trends of natural drought that have not been considered before.","An Integrated Framework for Extreme Drought Assessments Using the Natural Drought Index, Copula and Gi* Statistic",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1734022,"The NERC UK SOLAS-funded Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe) programme comprised three field experiments. This manuscript presents an overview of the measurements made within the two simultaneous remote experiments conducted in the tropical North Atlantic in May and June 2007. Measurements were made from two mobile and one ground-based platforms. The heavily instrumented cruise D319 on the RRS Discovery from Lisbon, Portugal to Sao Vicente, Cape Verde and back to Falmouth, UK was used to characterise the spatial distribution of boundary layer components likely to play a role in reactive halogen chemistry. Measurements onboard the ARSF Dornier aircraft were used to allow the observations to be interpreted in the context of their vertical distribution and to confirm the interpretation of atmospheric structure in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands. Long-term ground-based measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on Sao Vicente were supplemented by long-term measurements of reactive halogen species and characterisation of additional trace gas and aerosol species during the intensive experimental period. This paper presents a summary of the measurements made within the RHaMBLe remote experiments and discusses them in their meteorological and chemical context as determined from these three platforms and from additional meteorological analyses. Air always arrived at the CVAO from the North East with a range of air mass origins (European, Atlantic and North American continental). Trace gases were present at stable and fairly low concentrations with the exception of a slight increase in some anthropogenic components in air of North American origin, though NOx mixing ratios during this period remained below 20 pptv (note the non-IUPAC adoption in this manuscript of pptv and ppbv, equivalent to pmol mol(-1) and nmol mol(-1) to reflect common practice). Consistency with these air mass classifications is observed in the time series of soluble gas and aerosol composition measurements, with additional identification of periods of slightly elevated dust concentrations consistent with the trajectories passing over the African continent. The CVAO is shown to be broadly representative of the wider North Atlantic marine boundary layer; measurements of NO, O-3 and black carbon from the ship are consistent with a clean Northern Hemisphere marine background. Aerosol composition measurements do not indicate elevated organic material associated with clean marine air. Closer to the African coast, black carbon and NO levels start to increase, indicating greater anthropogenic influence. Lower ozone in this region is possibly associated with the increased levels of measured halocarbons, associated with the nutrient rich waters of the Mauritanian upwelling. Bromide and chloride deficits in coarse mode aerosol at both the CVAO and on D319 and the continuous abundance of inorganic gaseous halogen species at CVAO indicate significant reactive cycling of halogens. Aircraft measurements of O-3 and CO show that surface measurements are representative of the entire boundary layer in the vicinity both in diurnal variability and absolute levels. Above the inversion layer similar diurnal behaviour in O-3 and CO is observed at lower mixing ratios in the air that had originated from south of Cape Verde, possibly from within the ITCZ. ECMWF calculations on two days indicate very different boundary layer depths and aircraft flights over the ship replicate this, giving confidence in the calculated boundary layer depth.",Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe): the tropical North Atlantic experiments,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+93355,"Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model (GCM) downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change (at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct) appears within +/- 10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.",Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+144036,"Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. Here, a new climate metric is proposed to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over nonoverlapping 100-yr segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last-millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-99), and the 3100-yr unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and is thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Nino and La Nina events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.",Statistical Structure of Intrinsic Climate Variability under Global Warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+791543,"The temporal factor has been widely neglected in studies related to species distribution. However, knowing the species phenology throughout the year could be a key element in ecological studies, more so considering the current climate change framework. The intra-annual temporal patterns of the saproxylic beetle assemblage inhabiting the oak forests in the western Iberian Peninsula were evaluated in terms of species richness and composition. Moreover, we analysed the temporal patterns of species richness and body size, with respect to the abiotic factors of temperature and relative humidity. The marked seasonality of the Mediterranean weather governed, to a great extent, the temporal patterns of the assemblage, as both species richness and body size showed a positive correlation with temperature and a negative correlation with relative humidity. The high temperatures reached in August limited the activity of certain species, causing a marked decrease in species richness. The results revealed that species body size decreased in the colder months of the year and vice versa, which could fit with the inverse of Bergmann's rule; nevertheless, studies are needed to address the contribution of species physiology and autoecology to the observed temporal patterns. Regarding species composition, the partition of beta diversity in its two components showed a constant process of species turnover throughout the year. We conclude that, due to global warming, the study of temporal patterns of assemblages is becoming all the more important, since it could significantly affect the spatio-temporal distribution of species and the interactions between them.",Intra-annual patterns of saproxylic beetle assemblages inhabiting Mediterranean oak forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1344019,"The associations between temperature and daily mortality was studied among the citizens of Oslo, Norway, 1990-1995. Data on daily mortality were linked with daily temperatures, relative humidity, wind velocity and air pollution. At temperatures below 10 degreesC, a 1 degreesC fall in the last 7 days average temperature increased the daily mortality from all diseases by 1.4%, respiratory diseases 2.1%, and cardiovascular diseases 1.7%. Above 10 degreesC, there was no statistically significant increase in daily mortality, except for respiratory mortality, which increased by 4.7% per 1 degreesC increase in the last 7 days average temperature. Daily mortality in Oslo increases with temperatures falling below 10 degreesC. The increase starts at lower temperatures than shown in warmer regions of the world, but at higher temperatures than in regions with even colder climates. As well insulated and heated dwellings are standard in Norway today, more adequate clothing during outdoor visits is probably the most important preventive measure for temperature related mortality.","Mortality and temperature in Oslo, Norway, 1990-1995",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+55044,"We review the evidence that connects drought and desertification in the Sahel with climate change past, present and future. Advances in climate modeling point to the oceans, not land, as the cause of the recent persistence of drought in the Sahel. The current generation of global climate models reproduces the spatial extent, continental in scale, and the timing and duration of the shift to dry conditions that occurred in the late 1960's given knowledge of observed surface oceanic conditions only. The pattern statistically and dynamically associated with drought is one of warming of the tropical oceans, especially the Pacific and Indian Oceans, superimposed on an enhanced warming of the southern compared to the northern hemisphere most evident in the Atlantic. These models, which include a prognostic description of land surface and/or vegetation, albeit crude, indicate that positive feedbacks between precipitation and land surface/cover may act to amplify the ocean-forced component of continental climate. Despite the advances made in understanding the recent past, uncertainty dominates as we move forward in time, to the present, partial greening of the Sahel, and to the future of climate change projections. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","A climate model-based review of drought in the Sahel: Desertification, the re-greening and climate change",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+192137,"The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) believes in a future where the mountain people of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas can experience enhanced livelihoods, equity, and social and environmental security; where they can adapt to environmental, socioeconomic, and climate change; and where future generations of mountain and downstream populations can enjoy the benefits and opportunities afforded by the region's natural endowment. ICIMOD is an intergovernmental center that develops and shares information and knowledge, facilitates learning, and uses innovation and effective communication to empower its eight regional member countries-Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan-and the women, men, and children living there. ICIMOD believes that interventions are most successful when they take into account the points of view of everyone in society, regardless of gender, caste, or ethnicity. Inclusiveness is the hallmark of ICIMOD's work.",Gender Equality as a Key Strategy for Achieving Equitable and Sustainable Development in Mountains The Case of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2334325,"Aim Diet is key to understanding resource use by species, their relationships with their environment and biotic interactions. We aimed to identify the major strategies that shape the diet space of birds and to investigate their spatial distributions in association with biogeographical, bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers. Location Global. Time period Current. Major taxa studied Birds. Methods We analysed score-based assessments of eight diet categories for 8,937 out of 10,964 extant bird species. We constructed a multivariate diet space by ordinating these data in a principal coordinates analysis and assessed its dimensionality as a balance between the representation of original diet scores and parsimony. We averaged the positions of species along each dimension for 12,705 species assemblages and used quantile regressions to infer the relative contributions of species richness, climate, primary productivity, topography and human footprint to the spatial distribution of the diet space at a global scale. Results The diet space of birds was structured by four dimensions ordinating species along continua ranging from insectivory to plant-based strategies, granivory to frugivory, common to rare diets, and nectarivory to carnivory and piscivory. Although orthogonal at the species level, these dimensions were correlated among species assemblages, with regional variation consistent with past climatic and tectonic events. Human footprint packed bird assemblages in the diet space, whereas warm climate, high productivity and high topographic variability were associated with high variability in the prevalence of dietary strategies among assemblages. Main conclusions The tremendous variability in bird diets can be explained by a few basic ecological continua sustained by morphological and ecophysiological differences among species. Strong biogeographical legacies on top of bioclimatic drivers distribute this diet space in species assemblages through environmental filtering and niche packing. However, these patterns are altered at macroecological scales by human-mediated functional homogenization, which might, in turn, affect the global distribution of bird functions and services.",Functional biogeography of dietary strategies in birds,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2236167,"The infilling of existing suitable habitats within a landscape after establishment is of critical importance for the final outcome of a plant invasion, yet it is an often overlooked process. Common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia, is an invasive annual species in Europe causing serious problems due to its highly allergenic pollen and as an agricultural weed. Recent studies have modelled the broad-scale distribution of the species and assessed future invasion risk, but for predicting the expected outcome of ragweed invasion we also need a mechanistic understanding of its local invasion success. We conducted a field experiment to investigate the invasibility of eight common non-arable habitat types and the role of soil disturbance in central Hungary, in the hot spot of ragweed invasion in Europe. Seed addition alone resulted in negligible amount of ragweed biomass, except for sites where disturbance was part of the present management. Soil disturbance alone resulted in ragweed at those few sites where ragweed seeds were present in the seed bank, related to farming in recent decades. When disturbance and seed addition were combined, ragweed emerged in all habitat types and reached high biomass in all habitat types except for closed forests. As our experiment showed that most habitat types have high invasibility when disturbed, we conclude that ragweed has a high potential for further spread, even in this heavily infested region. Management should focus on preventing seed dispersal and eradicating establishing populations where ragweed is still absent, while reducing soil disturbance may be needed to avoid ragweed emergence in infested sites. This latter may require a reconsideration of land-use practices in infested regions.",The potential of common ragweed for further spread: invasibility of different habitats and the role of disturbances and propagule pressure,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2089966,"To assess whether human activities due to tourism were negatively impacting Adelie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae), we compared long-term population trends at visited and control sites on Torgersen Island considering underlying factors associated with environmental variability. To this end, a hillshade model of Torgersen Island was developed; linear regression and discriminant function analyses were used to examine breeding population/landscape interactions. Results suggest that variability in population trends on Torgersen Island are forced primarily by colony aspect and colony area. Colonies with south-facing aspects are decreasing faster than colonies with north-facing aspects. Smaller colonies are decreasing faster than larger colonies. Both trends are likely due to interactions between the effects of increased snow deposition and decreasing egg and/or chick survival due to predation and flooding. To examine human influences, subsequent analyses were standardised by pairing Adelie penguin colonies according to area and aspect on the visited and control sides of Torgersen Island. Tourism appears to have no detectable impact on Adelie penguin breeding population size or breeding success; comparisons between population trends in visited and control sides of the island were either not significant or inconsistent with site-specific tourist visitation patterns.","The effects of human activity and environmental variability on long-term changes in Adelie penguin populations at Palmer Station, Antarctica",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1689116,"Urban river floods are normally caused by consecutive days of extreme precipitation. It is expected that climate change will have significant impact on extreme precipitation because the warming atmosphere will alter the precipitation pattern by changing the global/regional hydrological cycle. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finds that there is a tendency for an increase in daily heavy precipitation events in many regions in the world, including some in which the mean precipitation is projected to decrease. Currently, the General Circulation Model (GCM) is still the most reliable tool for generating the future climate change scenarios, but GCM is still facing with the problems in simulating daily precipitation at regional or local scales, particularly in extreme precipitation events simulation, due to its coarse spatial resolution and the current incomplete understanding of the climate system. The poor performance in regional/local precipitation simulation makes it difficult of direct using GCM outputs in climate change impact on extreme precipitation change studies, because extreme precipitation event is most likely a localised phenomenon. Recently, research efforts have been put into the downscaling the GCM to support localised impact assessment. However, such downscaling models are either complex so computational demanding (dynamic downscaling) or require extensive of observed data (statistical downscaling). That has leads to a limited availability of model results which in most cases are not sufficient to fulfil a localised impact assessment needs. Since the publication of IPCC AR4, many GCM daily simulation outputs have become publically available, which provide an opportunity to study the change impact on total precipitation amount at daily bases, either for one day or multiple days. Given that the direct application of GCM simulation data in assessing climate change impact on extreme precipitation is yet to be examined, the important question is then how to make use of the daily GCM results in order to obtain local daily precipitation statistics and their changes in the future. This is of major importance for the extreme precipitation properties since the upper tail of the precipitation distribution suffers most from the coarse resolution representation in the GCMs. Thus the focus of this study was given to examine the climate change impact on the extreme precipitation by linking the GCM daily simulation results with the local extreme precipitation observations based on a statistical approach. Due to the current incomplete understanding of the climate system, the GCM's precipitation generation mechanism is associated with high uncertainties. Pattern scaling has been proved to be an economic and efficient method to cope with such uncertainties in generating the range of future climate change scenarios from different GCMs. Based on this method, together with a GCM-ensemble probabilistic prediction, we developed a future extreme events generation method that is capable of addressing the range of uncertainties that caused by different GCM precipitation generation mechanisms. The method was applied to the study the climate change impact on the Brisbane River rainfall and flooding. Since the historical flooding in Brisbane River were caused by multiple-day (typically 4 - 7 consecutive day) extreme rainfall, the method was applied to analysis the 5-day maximum total rainfall for the 17 long term historical observation stations in the catchment. The results reveal a reinforced trend toward more intense extreme precipitation events into the future under climate change. The shortening of return periods for extreme precipitation events and greater intensity of such events has implications for planning and decision making of durable infrastructure along with emergency services planning, landuse regulation and building codes. This relates not only to possible flood mitigation strategies such as the potential need for additional flood mitigating infrastructure but also for the current built environment.",A method of applying daily GCM outputs in assessing climate change impact on multiple day extreme precipitation for Brisbane River Catchment,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+508136,"Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to enhance the interannual variability of summer climate in Europe(1-3) and other mid-latitude regions(4,5), potentially causing more frequent heatwaves(1,3,5,6). Climate models consistently predict an increase in the variability of summer temperatures in these areas, but the underlying mechanisms responsible for this increase remain uncertain. Here we explore these mechanisms using regional simulations of recent and future climatic conditions with and without land - atmosphere interactions. Our results indicate that the increase in summer temperature variability predicted in central and eastern Europe is mainly due to feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. Furthermore, they suggest that land - atmosphere interactions increase climate variability in this region because climatic regimes in Europe shift northwards in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, creating a new transitional climate zone with strong land - atmosphere coupling in central and eastern Europe. These findings emphasize the importance of soil- moisture - temperature feedbacks ( in addition to soil- moisture - precipitation feedbacks(7-10)) in influencing summer climate variability and the potential migration of climate zones with strong land - atmosphere coupling(7,11) as a consequence of global warming. This highlights the crucial role of land atmosphere interactions in future climate change.",Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1468305,"This study examines the skills in simulating interannual variability of northwestern Pacific (NWP) summer climate in 12 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) attending the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (AMIP II). The models show a wide range of skills, among those version 1 of the Hadley Centre Global Atmosphere Model (HadGAM1) showed the highest fidelity and thus may be a better choice for studying East Asian-NWP summer climate. To understand the possible causes for the difference among the models, five models {HadGAM1; ECHAM5; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmosphere Model, version 2.1 (AM2.1); Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2, high-resolution version [MIROC3.2(hires)]; and the fourth-generation National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3)} that have various skill levels, ranging from the highest to the moderate to the minor, were selected for analyses. The simulated teleconnection of NWP summer climate with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans was first compared. HadGAM1 reproduces suppressed (intensified) rainfall during El Nino (La Nina) events and captures well the remote connection with the tropical Indian Ocean, while the other models either underestimate [ECHAM5, AM2.1, MIROC3.2(hires)] or fail to reproduce (CAM3) these teleconnections. The Walker cell and diabatic heating were further compared to shed light on the underlying physical mechanisms for the difference. Consistent with the best performance in simulating interannual rainfall, HadGAM1 exhibits the highest-level skill in capturing the observed climatology of the Walker cell and diabatic heating. These results highlight the key roles of the model's background climatology in the Walker cell and diabatic heating, thus providing important clues to improving the model's ability.",Comparison of the Northwestern Pacific Summer Climate Simulated by AMIP II AGCMs,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3203965,"In a natural ecosystem or as climatic climax community, grassland is relatively dry with a strongly seasonal climate, and sensitive to climatic changes. Most of the previous studies used remote sensing data to investigate the phenological response of grassland to climate change, while ground-based studies covering a large geographic area were limited. In this study, using the long-term phenological data (1981-2012) of 16 herbaceous species observed at 20 stations in Inner Mongolia, China, we first investigated the trends in three spring phenophases, including the dates of bud-burst, first leaf unfolding, and 50% of leaf unfolding. Subsequently, multiple linear regressions between phenophases and four climatic factors (spring temperature, soil moisture, chilling temperature, and insolation) were performed to determine the relative importance of each factor on the spring phenology. To validate the resulted regression coefficients, we developed a controlled environment to investigate the factors regulating the leaf unfolding time of one dominant species (Leymus chinensis). The results showed that the study area became warmer and drier from 1981 to 2012. However, the overall changes in spring phenophases were not apparent, as there was a similar proportion of significant earlier or later trends. Such phenological changes were driven by multiple climatic factors. The warmer temperature would advance the spring phenophases, while lower soil moisture would delay them. The impact of soil moisture was significant in the experimental data, but not significant in the observation data. In addition, leaf unfolding became faster when L. chinensis experienced more chilling days, but this effect was difficult to be detected in observation data due to the weak sensitivity of the leaf unfolding time to chilling days. These findings can help us to understand how the spring phenology of typical herbaceous species responds to multiple climatic factors under the background of climate change.","Effects of multiple climate change factors on the spring phenology of herbaceous plants in Inner Mongolia, China: Evidence from ground observation and controlled experiments",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+323641,"BACKGROUND Climate change and rising average global temperatures threaten to disrupt the physical, biological and ecological life support systems on which human health depends. OBJECTIVE This article overviews the evidence for human induced climate change, the predicted health impacts, and the role of primary health care professionals in managing these impacts. DISCUSSION Climate change has substantial potential health effects. These include heat stress related to heatwaves; injuries related to extreme weather events such as storms, fires and floods; infectious disease outbreaks due to changing patterns of mosquito borne and water borne diseases; poor nutrition from reduced food availability and affordability; the psychosocial impact of drought; and the displacement of communities. Primary health care has an important role in preparing for and responding to these climate change related threats to human health.",Climate change and primary health care,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1373084,"During an El Nino, the expected rainfall increase over most of the Lake Victoria catchment area is similar to 15-25%. However, due to anomalous warming of the western equatorial Indian Ocean during 1997, strong convection developed over parts of the Horn and eastern Africa. This resulted in a much larger 20-160% precipitation excess during the ""short rainy"" season. Satellite radar altimetry data reveals that not only did Lake Victoria rise by similar to 1.7 m, but that the rainfall event similarly affected lakes Tanganyika, Malawi and Turkana. In addition, the seasonal level minima of the Sudd marshes and Lakes T'ana and Nasser continue to increase. Such a rainfall event will have severe, longterm consequences for the natural surface flows and storages along the White Nile. Based on the hydrological impacts of the historic 1961 East Africa event, we can expect the current high levels of Lake Victoria to be maintained for the remainder of this decade. In addition, we anticipate a major expansion of the permanent swamp regions of the Sudd marshes over the forthcoming seasons. Blue Nile flows, further enhanced by the above-average 1998 rainfall season, can also be expected to remain high, at least until early 1999.",Indian Ocean climate event brings floods to East Africa's lakes and the Sudd marsh,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+536220,"Results of studying of the factors influencing level of pollution of three small rivers are given in the work, located in the various physiographic regions of the Republic of Tatarstan. The list of the priority substances polluting river waters is established. By means of formalized generalized an indicator (an index of impurity of waters) it is shown that, despite essential reduction of outputs, qualities of river waters during 1982-2002 years remained at a low level with prevalence to the fourth class of the quality, corresponding the polluted waters. Cyclic nature of change of quality pollution of waters that is explained by influence of the meteorological sizes, the general for the region (air temperature and quantity of an atmospheric precipitation) learned. The received results allow to draw a conclusion on an important role of the meteorological sizes in the course of formation of quality of river waters which river water and an assessment of permissible anthropogenic load on water ecosystems depending on a hydro meteorological mode of the territory can lay down in a basis of the subsequent development on short-term and long-term ecological forecasting of extent of pollution. © SGEM2014 All Rights Reserved.",Studying of processes of formation of quality of a surface water in modern conditions of climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1481986,"Background: Few population-based studies have assessed the prevalence and the risk factors of non-allergic rhinitis (NAR) in comparison to allergic rhinitis (AR). Moreover, epidemiologic data on rhinitis in the elderly subjects and in southern Europe are scarce. Objective: This study aimed at estimating the prevalence and at comparing the risk factor distribution of AR and NAR in a general population sample aged 20-84 years in Italy. Methods: A questionnaire on respiratory symptoms and risk factors was administered to random samples of the Italian population aged 20-44 (n = 10,494) 45-64 (n = 2167) and 65-84 (n = 1030) in the frame of the Gene Environment Interactions in Respiratory Diseases (GEIRD) study. Current AR and NAR were defined according to the selfreported presence of nasal allergies or of nasal symptoms without a cold or the flu. Results: NAR showed a significant descending pattern in females from 12.0 % (95 % CI 11.1, 13.1) in the 20-44 year age class, to 7.5 % (5.4, 10.3) in the 65-84 year age class (p = 0.0009), and a roughly stable pattern in males, from 10.2 % (9.3, 11.2) to 11.1 % (8.4, 13.9) (p = 0.5261). AR decreased from 26.6 % (25.7, 27.6) in 20-44 years age class to 15.6 % (13.3, 18.0) in the 65-84 years age class (p < 0.0001), without gender difference. Subjects living near industrial plants and ex-and current smokers had a higher risk of NAR. Current smokers had a lower risk and subjects living in a Mediterranean climate a higher risk of AR. Conclusion: AR and NAR are fairly distinct conditions, as they have a different age, gender and risk factor distribution.","The gender, age and risk factor distribution differs in self-reported allergic and non-allergic rhinitis: a cross-sectional population-based study",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3984054,"Many ecosystems and the biodiversity they contain are currently faced with increasing disturbance frequency and intensity, concurrent with converging stress agents such as climate change, invasive species, and pollutant loads. Research has shown that the earlier decline can be detected, the more successful efforts will be in sustaining critical natural resources. While historically remote sensing (RS) has been successfully used to assess and monitor vegetation condition on a relative, coarse scale, advances in RS technologies and new modeling approaches now enable the identification and tracking of early and more subtle changes in vegetation condition, function, and structure. Here we review the current techniques used to assess and monitor forest ecosystem condition and disturbance and outline a general approach for earlier, more detailed, and accurate decline assessment. We also discuss the importance of engaging land managers, practitioners, and decision-makers in these efforts to ensure that the final products developed can be utilized by stakeholders to maximize the impact of these technologies moving forward. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2020.","Remote sensing for early, detailed, and accurate detection of forest disturbance and decline for protection of biodiversity",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+501841,"Urban lakes are vulnerable to the accumulation of semivolatile organic compounds, such as PAHs from wet and dry atmospheric deposition. Little was reported on the seasonal patterns of atmospheric deposition of PAHs under Asian monsoon climate. Bulk (dry + wet) particle deposition, air-water diffusion exchange, and vapour wet deposition of PAHs in a small urban lake in Guangzhou were estimated based on a year-round monitoring. The total PAH particle deposition fluxes observed were 0.44-3.46 μg m-2 day-1. The mean air-water diffusive exchange flux was 20.7 μg m-2 day-1. The vapour deposition fluxes of PAHs ranged 0.15-8.26 μg m-2 day-1. Remarkable seasonal variations of particulate PAH deposition, air-water exchange fluxes and vapour wet deposition were influenced by seasonal changes in meteorological parameters. The deposition fluxes were predominantly controlled by the precipitation intensity in wet season whereas by atmospheric concentration in dry season. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) deposition to and exchange at the air-water interface of Luhu, an urban lake in Guangzhou, China",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+253578,"The current worldwide incidence of viral haemorrhagic fevers caused by arenaviruses is briefly reviewed. The recently published Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has described the changes in global climate that are expected to occur over the course of the present century and beyond. Climate modelling and forecasting have not yet reached the stage where confident predictions of regional changes at the level of a virus endemic area can be made. However, in the regions where pathogenic arenaviruses now circulate, significant effects are likely to include increases in surface temperature, changes in the extent and distribution of rainfall, the occurrence of extreme weather events, glacier retreat, and coastal flooding as a result of sea level rise. The possible impact of these changes on the geographical location and the incidence of arenavirus diseases and its human impact are discussed.",Influence of climate change on the incidence and impact of arenavirus diseases: a speculative assessment,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+176729,"Climate change will expose many marine ecosystems to temperature, oxygen and CO2 conditions that have not been experienced for millennia. Predicting the impact of these changes on marine fishes is difficult due to the complexity of these disparate stressors and the inherent non-linearity of physiological systems. Aerobic scope (the difference between maximum and minimum aerobic metabolic rates) is a coherent, unifying physiological framework that can be used to examine all of the major environmental changes expected to occur in the oceans during this century. Using this framework, we develop a physiology-based habitat suitability model to forecast the response of marine fishes to simultaneous ocean acidification, warming and deoxygenation, including interactions between all three stressors. We present an example of the model parameterized for Thunnus albacares (yellowfin tuna), an important fisheries species that is likely to be affected by climate change. We anticipate that if embedded into multispecies ecosystem models, our model could help to more precisely forecast climate change impacts on the distribution and abundance of other high value species. Finally, we show how our model may indicate the potential for, and limits of, adaptation to chronic stressors. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",An aerobic scope-based habitat suitability index for predicting the effects of multi-dimensional climate change stressors on marine teleosts,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+746918,"1. There are wide reports of advances in the timing of spring migration of birds over time and in relation to rising temperatures, though phenological responses vary substantially within and among species. An understanding of the ecological, life-history and geographic variables that predict this intra-and interspecific variation can guide our projections of how populations and species are likely to respond to future climate change. 2. Here, we conduct phylogenetic meta-analyses addressing slope estimates of the timing of avian spring migration regressed on (i) year and (ii) temperature, representing a total of 413 species across five continents. We take into account slope estimation error and examine phylogenetic, ecological and geographic predictors of intra-and interspecific variation. 3. We confirm earlier findings that on average birds have significantly advanced their spring migration time by 2.1 days per decade and 1.2 days degrees C-1. We find that over time and in response to warmer spring conditions, short-distance migrants have advanced spring migratory phenology by more than long-distance migrants. We also find that larger bodied species show greater advance over time compared to smaller bodied species. Our results did not reveal any evidence that interspecific variation in migration response is predictable on the basis of species' habitat or diet. 4. We detected a substantial phylogenetic signal in migration time in response to both year and temperature, suggesting that some of the shifts in migratory phenological response to climate are predictable on the basis of phylogeny. However, we estimate high levels of species and spatial variance relative to phylogenetic variance, which is consistent with plasticity in response to climate evolving fairly rapidly and being more influenced by adaptation to current local climate than by common descent. 5. On average, avian spring migration times have advanced over time and as spring has become warmer. While we are able to identify predictors that explain some of the true among-species variation in response, substantial intra-and interspecific variation in migratory response remains to be explained.",Temporal shifts and temperature sensitivity of avian spring migratory phenology: a phylogenetic meta-analysis,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3881600,"The hydrology of wetlands is dynamic owing to daily, seasonal, and inter-annual changes in water levels caused by tides, river flooding, and/or precipitation events. The resulting water regimes are primary determinants of many wetland ecosystem attributes including soil properties, water chemistry and biotic composition. Human-caused changes to wetlands that result in anomalous water regimes usually trigger a cascade of ecological effects, including species losses and invasions and altered biogeochemical cycles. These, in turn, often cause a loss in ecosystem services. Compared to other ecosystems, rates of wetland degradation and loss have been greater, primarily due to six drivers: 1) infrastructure development, 2) land conversion, 3) water withdrawal, 4) eutrophication and pollution, 5) overharvesting and overexploitation, and 6) introduction of invasive species. Wetland degradation is often caused by multiple drivers, some of which are site based, while others are regional or global in scope. This makes wetland degradation difficult to reverse, even where social and institutional support is strong. However, in the past twenty years, the complexity and scale of wetland restoration has advanced, resulting in successful attempts in many different contexts around the world. In many cases, though, it is not possible to fully restore the water regime of a wetland modified by human use, so partial fixes must be accompanied by ongoing water level management to achieve desired conditions. An important future challenge is to develop and implement strategies that ensure the sustainability of wetland ecosystem services under increasing stress from climate change, increasing human population and the drivers that have historically threatened wetlands. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018. All rights reserved.",Natural and anthropogenic drivers of wetland change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+632204,"In this study, taking drought disaster-causing factors like precipitation, temperature, reference evapotranspiration, and the degree of drought severity based on the drought index as study objects, the characteristics of these above elements against the background of global warming were analyzed by using the method of climate statistics. The data include a variety of climate observations of 129 meteorological stations in southwestern and southern China from 1961 to 2012. The results show that over the past half century sustained temperature increase has been presented in the study area against the background of global warming. However, there is still a sharp warming point (mutation point) of temperature time series that occurred in 1994 during 1961 to 2012 according to the Mann-Kendal test. In other words, the past half century could be divided into two episodes with the year 1994 as the boundary: the first period (i.e. the period before significant temperature rise) from 1961 to 1994, and the second period (i.e. the period after significant temperature rise) from 1995 to 2012. In order to highlight the effects that result from obvious warming, a comparison of the above factors between the two episodes and the trend of these factors in the two episodes are analyzed. This shows that, during the period after significant temperature rise, the study area has experienced a significant downward trend in precipitation and a decline in reference evapotranspiration, but a rise in its change trend, and more serious degree of drought severity due to the impact of less precipitation and higher temperatures.",Characteristics of Drought Disaster-Causing Factor Anomalies in Southwestern and Southern China against the Background of Global Warming,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1308370,"We review studies relevant to the migration of pelagic fishes between the coastal and open-ocean ecosystems off the subarctic coast of North America. We review the life history strategies of these migratory fish and to compare to the life history strategies of major coastal migrants. The oceanography in this region is dominated by north and south currents that provide a boundary between the offshore and coastal waters. Commercial fisheries off the west coast of North America are virtually all inshore of this oceanographic separation. Migrations for some species in these major fisheries are also north and south rather than east and west. However, exceptions Occur for Pacific salmon, species associated with seamounts, and for transitional pelagic species such as tuna, squid and sharks. Three species of Pacific salmon, sockeye, pink and chum salmon, migrate along the coast in their first marine year and move off shore in the fall and winter in their first marine year. Three other species, coho salmon, chinook salmon, and steelhead trout, also migrate offshore, although they are less abundant and some stocks remain within the coastal regions. Pacific salmon species are a dominant daytime biomass in the surface waters in the offshore areas. It is known that albacore tuna and some sharks migrate between the offshore and coastal areas, but more research is needed to assess the relative importance of these migrations. Although the biomass of species on seamounts is small relative to coastal areas, the similarity in fauna is evidence that there is recruitment from coastal ecosystems. Crown Copyright (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Migratory patterns of pelagic fishes and possible linkages between open ocean and coastal ecosystems off the Pacific coast of North America,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2362132,"Planktonic ciliates constitute a fundamental component among microzooplankton and play a prominent role in carbon transport at the base of marine food webs. How these organisms respond to shifting environmental regimes is unclear and constitutes a current challenge under global ocean changes. Here we examine a multi-annual field survey covering 25 years in the Bahfa Blanca Estuary (Argentina), a shallow, flood-plain system dominated by wind and tidal energy. We found that the estuary experienced marked changes in wind dominant regimes and an increase in water turbidity driven from the joint effect of persistent long-fetch winds and the indirect effect of the Southern Annular Mode. Along with these changes, we found that zooplankton components, i.e. ciliates and the dominant estuarine copepod Acartia tonsa, showed a negative trend during the period 1986-2011. We showed that the combined effects of wind and turbidity with other environmental variables (chlorophyll, salinity and nutrients) consistently explained the variability of observed shifts. Tintinnids were more vulnerable to wind patterns and turbidity while showed a loss of synchrony with primary productivity. Water turbidity produced a dome-like pattern on tintinnids, oligotrichs and A. tonsa, implying that the highest abundance of organisms occurred under moderate values (similar to 50 NTU) of turbidity. In contrast, the response to wind patterns was not generalizable probably owing to species-specific traits. Observed trends denote that wind induced processes in shallow ecosystems with internal sources of suspended sediments, are essential on ciliate dynamics and that such effects can propagate trough the interannual variability of copepods.",Long-term changes on estuarine ciliates linked with modifications on wind patterns and water turbidity,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+491248,"Ecosystems and populations are known to be influenced not only by long-term climatic trends, but also by other short-term climatic modes, such as interannual and decadal-scale variabilities. Because interactions between climatic forcing, biotic and abiotic components of ecosystems are subtle and complex, analysis of long-term series of both biological and physical factors is essential to understanding these interactions. Here, we apply a wavelet analysis simultaneously to long-term datasets on the environment and on the populations and breeding success of three Antarctic seabirds (southern fulmar, snow petrel, emperor penguin) breeding in Terre Adelie, to study the effects of climate fluctuations on Antarctic marine ecosystems. We show that over the past 40 years, populations and demographic parameters of the three species fluctuate with a periodicity of 3-5 years that was also detected in sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index. Although the major periodicity of these interannual fluctuations is not common to different species and environmental variables, their cyclic characteristics reveal a significant change since 1980. Moreover, sliding-correlation analysis highlighted the relationships between environmental variables and the demography of the three species, with important change of correlation occurring between the end of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. These results suggest that a regime shift has probably occurred during this period, significantly affecting the Antarctic ecosystem, but with contrasted effects on the three species.",Evidence of a shift in the cyclicity of Antarctic seabird dynamics linked to climate,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+692357,"This paper examines variability in surface climate and the relationship with two circulation indices using recently produced 200-250 year long European daily and monthly climatic series. Assessments are made of the influence of circulation indices (zonal over western Europe and average pressure over central Europe) on regional temperature, precipitation and drought series for northern and central Europe. Changes in the circulation are shown to be very important during the winter in not-them Europe, but only over western and central Europe in summer, Circulation indices in winter, however, only explain up to 25% of surface-climate variability and, except for the British Isles, do not explain any decadal and longer timescale variability in summer. Extreme temperatures and growing-season and frost-season durations and degree-day series are calculated for four sites (Central England, Stockholm, Uppsala and St. Petersburg). Degree-day counts are shown to be very strongly correlated (r > 0.9) to average extended summer ('growing' season, May to September) and extended winter ('frost' season, October to April) temperatures, Durations of the growing and frost seasons are only weakly correlated (r similar to 0.2-0.4) with the appropriate extended seasonal temperatures or degree-day counts. Warmer growing/frost seasons, therefore, need not necessarily be longer/shorter. Counts of extremely warm days in each year are more highly correlated with the growing-season mean temperature than with cold-season temperature. Similarly, counts of extremely cold days in each year are more highly correlated with cold-season temperature than with growing-season temperature. Both the growing-season temperature and the corresponding degree-day counts clearly show warmer temperatures over all series in Fermoscandia before 1860. Over central Europe, and for the Central England temperature series, growing seasons now are of similar warmth to those before 1860. Annually averaged temperatures across the three regions indicate long-term warming which is, however, almost entirely the result of warming during the October to April period.",Relationships between circulation strength and the variability of growing-season and cold-season climate in northern and central Europe,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+165310,"Environmental degradation stemming from anthropocentric causes threatens the biodiversity more than ever before, leading scholars to warn governments about the impending consequences of biodiversity loss (BL). At this point, it is of great importance to study the public's conceptions of BL in order to identify significant educational implications. However, a review of the literature reveals a relatively small body of research about the public understanding of BL. In this qualitative study, we thus strived to elicit Turkish school students' conceptions about BL using a written questionnaire including open-ended questions with respect to the definition of biodiversity as well as reasons for, results of and solutions to BL. The sample consisted of 245 school students in a relatively small city. A two-staged content analysis was run on the responses. The results showed that school students most commonly preferred species-focused definitions of biodiversity and understood BL through such various conceptual patterns as, 'balance of nature', 'forest', 'global warming', 'hunting' and 'indirect conservation'. At the end of the paper, the possible educational implications and future perspectives were discussed.","School Students' Conceptions about Biodiversity Loss: Definitions, Reasons, Results and Solutions",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+69999,"Results from studies of climate model scenarios suggest that forest fire ignitions will increase in Canada in the future because of climate change. Yet, there have been few studies that monitor long-term trends in Canadian historical fire records. Although there are seasonal trends to historically reported fires within a fire season, there are also periods of zero-heavy behaviour as well as periods during which more fires are reported than usual. We develop a flexible mixture-modelling framework that permits the joint assessment of temporal trends in these dominant characteristics in terms of fire risk, defined as the daily probability that one or more fires are reported. The statistical power of such trend tests are also evaluated. We identify statistically significant increases in lightning-caused fire risk between 1963 and 2009 in the boreal forest regions of the Rainy River and Lake of the Woods ecoregions in Northwestern Ontario, Canada. These observed changes in lightning-caused fire risk were found to be associated with temperature and fire danger rating index anomalies. If such trends continue into the future, the duration of elevated periods of lightning-caused forest fire risk is forecasted to increase by over 50% by the middle of this century. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Lightning-caused forest fire risk in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, is increasing and associated with anomalies in fire weather",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+746670,"Mass migration is one of the most concerning potential outcomes of global climate change. Recent research into environmentally induced migration suggests that relationship is much more complicated than originally posited by the 'environmental refugee' hypothesis. Climate change is likely to increase migration in some cases and reduce it in others, and these movements will more often be temporary and short term than permanent and long term. However, few large-sample studies have examined the evolution of temporary migration under changing environmental conditions. To address this gap, we measure the extent to which temperature, precipitation, and flooding can predict temporary migration in Matlab, Bangladesh. Our analysis incorporates high-frequency demographic surveillance data, a discrete time event history approach, and a range of sociodemographic and contextual controls. This approach reveals that temporary migration declines immediately after flooding but quickly returns to normal. In contrast, high temperatures have sustained positive effects on temporary migration that persist over one to two year periods, while migrations decrease dining extended periods of extreme precipitation. Building on previous studies of long-term migration, these results challenge the common assumption that flooding, precipitation extremes, and high temperatures will consistently increase temporary migration. Instead, our results are consistent with a livelihoods interpretation in which long-standing household livelihood strategies (both temporary migration and agriculture) are disrupted by environmental variability.","Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1441637,"This paper presents the analysis of mean daily temperature and precipitation from 1950 to 2010 in an area with Mediterranean climate of NE Spain including some coastal areas near Barcelona and the PenedSs and Camp de Tarragona Depressions located between the Coastal Mountain Range and the Mediterranean Sea. Their variability, with especial attention to the frequency of extreme events, was analysed by using 18 indexes: seven for temperature and 11 for precipitation were analysed for four meteorological observatories. A multivariate analysis was performed in order to analyse the temperature and precipitation trends. During the analysed period, an increase in mean annual maximum temperature was observed in all observatories ranging between 1.5 and 2.2A degrees C associated with an increase in the number of days with high extreme temperatures. Minimum temperature only increased significantly in the coast observatories (about 1.4A degrees C). By seasons, temperature trends were greater at Vilafranca del PenedSs and Barcelona observatories and lower at Reus airport. Maximum spring temperature increased between 1.5 and 2.5A degrees C, summer temperature increased between 1.6 and 2.5A degrees C and autumn temperature increased by up to 2.2A degrees C. Precipitation presented a high variability from year to year, without significant trends. The most significant results were related to the dry conditions observed in spring 2000s, the wet conditions recorded in summer 2000s and 1980s and the longer dry periods in autumn 2000s. The increase of temperatures determined the increase of evapotranspiration, and due to the higher irregular distribution, water deficits for crop development were recorded. An advance of phenological dates and a reduction of grape yield are associated to climate trends.",Seasonal temperature and precipitation variability during the last 60 years in a Mediterranean climate area of Northeastern Spain: a multivariate analysis,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+408714,"Significant climatic changes over northern Eurasia during the twentieth century are revealed in numerous variables including those affecting and characterizing the state of the cryosphere. In addition to commonly used in situ observations of snow cover such as snow depth and snow courses, synoptic archives in the former Soviet Union contain regular daily and semidaily reports about the state of the ground in the area surrounding the station. Information about frozen, dry, wet, ponded, and snow-covered land, and in the case of snow-covered land, about the characteristics of snow cover, is available in these reports. A new Global Synoptic Data Network (GSDN) consisting of 2100 stations within the boundaries of the former Soviet Union created jointly by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and Russian Institute for Hydrometeorological Information (RIHMI) was used to assess the climatology of snow cover, frozen and unfrozen ground reports, and their temporal variability for the period from 1936 to 2004. Comparison with satellite measurements of snow cover extent is also presented. During the second half of the twentieth century and over many regions in northern Eurasia, an increase in unfrozen ground conditions (5 days since 1956 over the Russian Federation) was observed. The most prominent changes occurred in the spring season in Siberia and the Far East north of 55 degrees N during April and May by 3 to 5 days, which constitute a 15%-35% change in these regions compared to long-term mean values. Since the beginning of the dataset, surface temperature changes in high latitudes have not been monotonic. As a result, linear trend analyses applied to the entire period of observations can lead to paradoxical conclusions. Specifically, changes in snow cover extent during the 1936-2004 period cannot be linked with ""warming"" (particularly with the Arctic warming) because in this particular period the Arctic warming was absent.",State of the ground: Climatology and changes during the past 69 years over northern Eurasia for a rarely used measure of snow cover and frozen land,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+190600,"This paper reviews land based transport related issues from considerations of climate change adaptation in Australia. The two main issues for climate change adaptation are sea level rise and the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. These issues are considered in the paper. It considers the risks to existing transport infrastructure and the resulting considerations necessary in planning new infrastructure, transport systems operations under changing climatic conditions, and potential changes in travel behaviour. The use and capability of regional rural networks in emergency evacuation planning emerges as one particular area for further research. More generally, recognition of the risks associated with climate change is required for better planning of new infrastructure and mitigating potential damage to existing infrastructure. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and operators. There is a need to undertake research into the likely impacts of climate change on Australia's transport infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses, and examine the current governance structures. Then the administrative, legal and other issues that may impact on climate change adaptation can be identified.","Adapting to climate change - implications for transport infrastructure, transport systems and travel behaviour",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+156225,"Towns and villages of Arctic Alaska experience substantial year-to-year variations in weather, overlaid on longer-term warming trends. Community populations often are changing as well, reflecting highly variable net migration, overlaid on longer-term trends of natural increase. Both environmental and population change affect Arctic communities' energy needs. Energy needs in the Arctic tend to be high and expensive, posing challenges to communities' long-term viability. In this paper, we analyze relationships between weather, population, and one important measured component of energy-community-level electricity consumption. Electricity for the most part is generated locally from diesel fuel, which has a local environmental footprint as well. Taking a new approach to the integrated analysis of climate and human-dimensions data, we apply mixed-effects modeling to time series of electricity, weather, population, and price indicators across 42 Alaska towns and villages. Population dominates annual variations in electricity use, showing both general and community-specific effects that are strongest in the regional centers. Weather also affects electricity use, but for different reasons than it does in more urban areas to the south. Given population stability, a warming climate should lead to lower electricity demand. Population growth can override climate effects, however. Net of population, weather, and price, there has been an upward trend in per capita electricity use.","Population, climate, and electricity use in the Arctic integrated analysis of Alaska community data",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1448078,"This study utilizes six commonly used reanalysis products, including the NCEP-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP2), NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim), Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), to evaluate features of the southern Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) above the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Climate Research Facility (ACRF) Southern Great Plains site. Two sets of radiosonde data are utilized: the six-week Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) and a 10-yr period spanning 2001 through 2010. All six reanalyses are compared to MC3E data, while only the NARR, MERRA, and CFSR are compared to the 10-yr data. The reanalyses are able to represent most aspects of the composite LLJ profile, although there is a tendency for each reanalysis to overestimate the wind speed between the nose of the LLJ (at approximately 900 mb) and a pressure level of 700 mb. There are large discrepancies in the number of LLJs observed and derived from the reanalysis, particularly for strong LLJs, leading to an underestimate of the moisture transport associated with LLJs. When the 10-yr period is considered, the NARR and CFSR overestimate and MERRA underestimates the total moisture transport, but all three underestimate the transport associated with strong LLJs by factors of 1.4, 2.0, and 2.7 for CFSR, NARR, and MERRA, respectively. During MC3E there were differences in the patterns of moisture convergence and divergence, but the patterns are more consistent during the 10-yr period.",The Low-Level Jet over the Southern Great Plains Determined from Observations and Reanalyses and Its Impact on Moisture Transport,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1283419,"On 24-25 June 1967 one of the most intense European tornado outbreaks produced extensive damage (approximately 960 houses damaged or destroyed) and resulted in 232 injuries and 15 fatalities in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. The 24-25 June 1967 tornado outbreak shows that Europe is highly vulnerable to tornadoes. To better understand the impact of European tornadoes and how this impact changed over time, the question is raised, ""What would happen if an outbreak similar to the 1967 one occurred 50 years later in 2017 over France, Belgium, and the Netherlands?'' Transposing the seven tornado tracks from the June 1967 outbreak over the modern landscape would potentially result in 24 990 buildings being impacted, 255-2580 injuries, and 17-172 fatalities. To determine possible worst-case scenarios, the tornado tracks are moved in a systematic way around their observed positions and positioned over modern maps of buildings and population. The worst-case scenario estimates are 146 222 buildings impacted, 2550-25 440 injuries, and 170-1696 fatalities. These results indicate that the current disaster management policies and mitigation strategies for Europe need to include tornadoes, especially because exposure and tornado risk is anticipated to increase in the near future.",What is the Worst That Could Happen? Reexamining the 24-25 June 1967 Tornado Outbreak over Western Europe,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+23433,"Aim South-eastern Australia is a climate change hotspot with well-documented recent changes in its physical marine environment. The impact on and temporal responses of the biota to change are less well understood, but appear to be due to influences of climate, as well as the non-climate related past and continuing human impacts. We attempt to resolve the agents of change by examining major temporal and distributional shifts in the fish fauna and making a tentative attribution of causal factors. Location Temperate seas of south-eastern Australia. Methods Mixed data sources synthesized from published accounts, scientific surveys, spearfishing and angling competitions, commercial catches and underwater photographic records, from the 'late 1800s' to the 'present', were examined to determine shifts in coastal fish distributions. Results Forty-five species, representing 27 families (about 30% of the inshore fish families occurring in the region), exhibited major distributional shifts thought to be climate related. These are distributed across the following categories: species previously rare or unlisted (12), with expanded ranges (23) and/or abundance increases (30), expanded populations in south-eastern Tasmania (16) and extra-limital vagrants (4). Another 9 species, representing 7 families, experienced longer-term changes (since the 1800s) probably due to anthropogenic factors, such as habitat alteration and fishing pressure: species now extinct locally (3), recovering (3), threatened (2) or with remnant populations (1). One species is a temporary resident periodically recruited from New Zealand. Of fishes exhibiting an obvious poleward movement, most are reef dwellers from three Australian biogeographic categories: widespread southern, western warm temperate (Flindersian) or eastern warm temperate (Peronian) species. Main conclusions Some of the region's largest predatory reef fishes have become extinct in Tasmanian seas since the 'late 1800s', most likely as a result of poor fishing practices. In more recent times, there have been major changes in the distribution patterns of Tasmanian fishes that correspond to dramatic warming observed in the local marine environment.",Long-term shifts in abundance and distribution of a temperate fish fauna: a response to climate change and fishing practices,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+546409,"Grazing is a major land use in Australia's rangelands. The 'safe' livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the 'best estimates' of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as 'known uncertainties' and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment). We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands ( including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia. Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations. Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the 'best estimate' projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1-5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation. Climate change projections - including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables - if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of. re, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage. In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3 degrees C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e. g. -21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (-33% or -9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3 degrees C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change. We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the 'best estimate' of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.",Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3970267,"Degradation of lake conditions could result from many stressors generated by human disturbance. Accurately defining lake ecological condition by multimetric index (MMI) method is of great importance for tracking source of stressors and lake management. For algal assessment, seldom have structural and functional attributes of soft-bodied planktonic algae metrics, one important dimension of biological condition, been used to develop MMI in conjunction with diatom metrics. Another thing is that some researchers found MMI method does not perform well in mid- and high-disturbed lakes. To test the aforementioned questions, we used data sets of the 2007 National Lake Assessment project of the USEPA to develop MMIs with and without using soft-bodied planktonic algae metrics for plains and lowlands area (PLNLOW, high disturbed region of the US) and across the conterminous US. Compared to site groups modeled by single diatom assemblages, we found integrating soft-bodied planktonic algae metric (especially blue-green algae metric) into developing MMIs can significantly improve performance of MMI in PLNLOW region. The separation powers of MMIs of five level III ecoregions, developed by incorporating blue-green algae metric, are consistently higher than those developed by single diatom assemblages (p-value = 0.029). However, when blue-green algae metric was applied to develop MMI along with diatom metrics in the national scale assessment, performances of MMIs are similar to that developed by diatom metrics (0.14 < p-value < 0.86). Different performance of MMIs developed by integrating blue-green algae metric at different spatial scales indicated the usefulness of blue-green algae metric in ecological assessment in mid- and high- disturbed lakes and a tiered approach for using diatom and blue-green algae metric in ecological assessment. We suggest using blue-green algae metric in combined with diatom metric to develop MMI when lakes are mid- and high-disturbed, while a routine diatom assessment would be enough for minimally disturbed sites. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.",Blue-green algae enhanced performance of diatom-based multimetric index on defining lake condition under high level of human disturbance,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+264973,"The last two decades are witnessing a decline in the growth trend of cereal yields in many European countries. The present study analyses yield trends in France using various sources of data: national and regional statistics, scattered trials, results of agroclimatic models using climatic data. Effects in genetic changes through breeding, agronomy and climate are investigated as possible causes. Our results show that genetic progress has not declined but it was partly counteracted, from 1990 on, by climate change which in general is unfavorable to cereal yields in temperate climates because of heat stress during grain filling and drought during stem elongation. We cannot however, from the decade beginning in 2000, rule out agronomic causes, related to policy and economy, in particular the decline of legumes in the cereal rotations, replaced by oilseed rape and to a lesser extent the decrease in nitrogen fertilization. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Why are wheat yields stagnating in Europe? A comprehensive data analysis for France,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+208527,"The application of combined isotopic and hydrochemical compositions may be useful for evaluating water quality problems in karst aquifers in which it is difficult to distinguish the sources of solutes from the natural background of those due to human activities. Multiple isotopes (delta C-13-DIC, delta S-34-SO42-) and chemical parameters were measured in rainwater, groundwater and sewage in order to elucidate the solute sources and impacts from human activities and natural background in the Laolongdong karst catchment in Chongqing Municipality, SW China. Overall, the dissolution of carbonate rock controls Ca2+, Mg2+ and HCO3- content in rainwater and karst groundwater. SO42- originated mainly from gypsum dissolution in karst groundwater. Carbonate rocks in the studied site could be dissolved jointly by H2CO3 from the natural CO2-H2O reaction and other acids (organic acids and HNO3) from sewage and soils. Sewage discharge from urban areas and agriculture activities lead to the increase of NO3-, PO43- and Cl- in karst groundwater. To protect and sustainably utilize the karst aquifer, sewage originating from urban areas must be controlled and treated and the use of fertilizer should be limited.","Hydrochemical indications of human impact on karst groundwater in a subtropical karst area, Chongqing, China",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+430016,"Effective conservation requires rigorous baselines of pristine conditions to assess the impacts of human activities and to evaluate the efficacy of management. Most coral reefs are moderately to severely degraded by local human activities such as fishing and pollution as well as global change, hence it is difficult to separate local from global effects. To this end, we surveyed coral reefs on uninhabited atolls in the northern Line Islands to provide a baseline of reef community structure, and on increasingly populated atolls to document changes associated with human activities. We found that top predators and reef-building organisms dominated unpopulated Kingman and Palmyra, while small planktivorous fishes and fleshy algae dominated the populated atolls of Tabuaeran and Kiritimati. Sharks and other top predators overwhelmed the fish assemblages on Kingman and Palmyra so that the biomass pyramid was inverted (top-heavy). In contrast, the biomass pyramid at Tabuaeran and Kiritimati exhibited the typical bottom-heavy pattern. Reefs without people exhibited less coral disease and greater coral recruitment relative to more inhabited reefs. Thus, protection from overfishing and pollution appears to increase the resilience of reef ecosystems to the effects of global warming.",Baselines and Degradation of Coral Reefs in the Northern Line Islands,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+369356,"Land-cover/climate changes and their impacts on hydrological processes are of widespread concern and a great challenge to researchers and policy makers. Kejie Watershed in the Salween River Basin in Yunnan, South-West China, has been reforested extensively during the past two decades. In terms of climate change, there has been a marked increase ill temperature. The impact of these changes oil hydrological processes required investigation: hence, this paper assesses aspects of changes in land cover and climate. The response of hydrological processes to land-cover/climate changes was examined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and impacts of single factor, land-use/climate change on hydrological processes were differentiated. Land-cover maps revealed extensive reforestation at the expense of grassland, cropland, and barren land. A significant monotonic trend and noticeable changes had Occurred in annual temperature over the long term. Long-term changes in annual rainfall and streamflow were weak; and changes in monthly rainfall (May, June, July, and September) were apparent. Hydrological simulations showed that the impact of climate change oil Surface water, baseflow, and streamflow was offset by the impact of land-cover change. Seasonal variation in streamflow was influenced by seasonal variation in rainfall. The earlier onset of monsoon and the variability of rainfall resulted in extreme monthly streamflow. Land-cover change played a dominant role in mean annual Values; seasonal variation in surface water and streamflow was influenced mainly by seasonal variation in rainfall; and land-cover change played a regulating role in this. Surface water is more sensitive to land-cover change and climate change: an increase in surface water in September and May due to increased rainfall was offset by a decrease in surface water due to land-cover change. A decrease in baseflow caused by changes in rainfall and temperature was offset by all increase in baseflow due to land-cover change. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Lid.","Response of hydrological processes to land-cover and climate changes in Kejie watershed, south-west China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+399971,"Augmenting previous papers about the exceptional 2011-2015 California drought, we offer new perspectives on the snow drought that extended into Oregon in 2014 and Washington in 2015. Over 80% of measurement sites west of 115 degrees W experienced record low snowpack in 2015, and we estimate a return period of 400-1000 years for California's snowpack under the questionable assumption of stationarity. Hydrologic modeling supports the conclusion that 2015 was the most severe on record by a wide margin. Using a crowd-sourced superensemble of regional climate model simulations, we show that both human influence and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies contributed strongly to the risk of snow drought in Oregon and Washington: the contribution of SST anomalies was about twice that of human influence. By contrast, SSTs and humans appear to have played a smaller role in creating California's snow drought. In all three states, the anthropogenic effect on temperature exacerbated the snow drought.",Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+414712,"Sediment cores from three lakes located in the northernmost region of Ungava, Québec (Canada) were examined to define aquatic community and ecosystem variability during the Late Holocene period. A chironomid-based transfer function was used to reconstruct August air temperature trends, and lacustrine primary production was inferred from sedimentary biogenic silica content and siliceous microfossil abundances. Trends in primary production, sediment organic matter content (estimated through loss on ignition), and chironomid-inferred temperature were compared to explore potential effects of environmental change on biotic assemblage composition at centennial to millennial time scales. Although no direct correlation between chironomid-inferred August air temperature and primary production was observed, we found indications that both chironomid and diatom communities were responding to the same overarching regional climatic and environmental processes. Over the last decade, northern Québec has been undergoing notable, rapid warming that contrasts with the relative inertia of the past few millennia. This study provides a baseline against which recent and future environmental changes in this region can be compared. © 2015 The Arctic Institute of North America.",Response of lacustrine biota to late holocene climate and environmental conditions in northernmost ungava (Canada),1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2493609,"Heat waves are anticipated to worsen with climate change. India, an understudied area with > 15% of the world's population, commonly experiences temperature extremes and already resembles potential future climates of more temperate regions. Registry data from local municipal corporations and government offices were collected and translated, yielding daily all-cause mortality for 4 communities in Northwest India for all or part of the period 2000-2012. Heat waves were defined as >= 2 days with local temperature >= 97th percentile for that community. An alternate definition matching that used by the Indian Meteorological Department was also developed, to enhance policy relevance. Community-specific average daily maximum temperature over the entire record ranged from 32.5 to 34.2 degrees C (90.5-93.6 degrees F). Across communities, total mortality increased 18.1% during heat wave days compared with non-heat-wave days [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.3%, 47.3%], with the highest risk in Jaipur (29.9% [95% CI: 24.6%, 34.9%]). Evidence of effect modification by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season) was limited. Findings indicate health risks associated with heat waves in communities with high baseline temperatures. Results can inform heat wave-health assessments in temperate regions in future, and improve our understanding of temperature-health associations under climate change. Further investigation of potential effect modification by heat wave characteristics is needed.",The impact of heat waves on mortality in Northwest India,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+528639,"We investigated seasonal dynamics of mycorrhizal colonization in response to precipitation in a Mojave Desert Larrea tridentata-Ambrosia dumosa shrub community as part of the overall Nevada Desert FACE (Free-Air CO2 Enrichment) Facility (NDFF) with the goal to understand carbon flow through desert ecosystems in the context of increased carbon availability associated with climate change. Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungal colonization of fine roots varied with season and with species in the co-dominant shrubs L. tridentata and A. dumosa at a site adjacent to the NDFF. We collected fine roots (< 1.0 mm diameter) at monthly intervals throughout 2001 and from October 2002 to September 2003 to quantify percent colonization via the line intercept method in cleared roots stained with trypan blue to visualize fungi. Colonization was highest in fall, increased throughout spring, and decreased during summer drought periods. Increases in colonization during summer and fall reflected increases in precipitation. Although peak precipitation occurred in spring, mycorrhizal colonization was not correspondingly high, suggesting that fine root initiation and growth, early season shoot growth, and flowering may have reduced carbon availability to the fungus.",Arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization of Larrea tridentata and Ambrosia dumosa roots varies with precipitation and season in the Mojave Desert,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2269688,"Forecasting the growth of tree species to future environmental changes requires a better understanding of its determinants. Tree growth is known to respond to global-change drivers such as climate change or atmospheric deposition, as well as to local land-use drivers such as forest management. Yet, large geographical scale studies examining interactive growth responses to multiple global-change drivers are relatively scarce and rarely consider management effects. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of three global-change drivers (temperature, precipitation and nitrogen deposition) on individual tree growth of three study species (Quercus robur/petraea, Fagus sylvatica and Fraxinus excelsior). We sampled trees along spatial environmental gradients across Europe and accounted for the effects of management for Quercus. We collected increment cores from 267 trees distributed over 151 plots in 19 forest regions and characterized their neighbouring environment to take into account potentially confounding factors such as tree size, competition, soil conditions and elevation. We demonstrate that growth responds interactively to global-change drivers, with species-specific sensitivities to the combined factors. Simultaneously high levels of precipitation and deposition benefited Fraxinus, but negatively affected Quercus' growth, highlighting species-specific interactive tree growth responses to combined drivers. For Fagus, a stronger growth response to higher temperatures was found when precipitation was also higher, illustrating the potential negative effects of drought stress under warming for this species. Furthermore, we show that past forest management can modulate the effects of changing temperatures on Quercus' growth; individuals in plots with a coppicing history showed stronger growth responses to higher temperatures. Overall, our findings highlight how tree growth can be interactively determined by global-change drivers, and how these growth responses might be modulated by past forest management. By showing future growth changes for scenarios of environmental change, we stress the importance of considering multiple drivers, including past management and their interactions, when predicting tree growth.",Environmental drivers interactively affect individual tree growth across temperate European forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3307770,"Snow cover is characterized by the high albedo, low thermal conductivity, and notable heat transition during phase changes. Thus, snow cover significantly affects the ground thermal regime. A comparison of the snow cover in high latitudes or high-altitude snowy mountain regions indicates that the eastern Tianshan Mountains (China) show a characteristically thin snow cover (snow depth below 15 cm) with remarkable temporal variability. Based on snow depth, heat flux, and ground temperature from 2014 to 2015 in the Urumqi River source, the spatialtemporal characteristics of snow cover and snow cover influences on the thermal conditions of active layer in the permafrost area were analyzed. During the autumn (Sept. - Oct.), thin and discontinuous snow cover can noticeably accelerate the exothermic process of the ground, producing a cooling effect on the shallow soil. During the winter (Nov. - Mar.), it is inferred that the effective thermal insulation starts with snow depth exceeding 10 cm during early winter. However, the snow depth in this area is generally below 15 cm, and the resulting snow-induced thermal insulation during the winter is very limited. Due to common heavy snowfalls in the spring (Apr. to May), the monthly mean snow thickness in April reached to 15 cm and remained until mid-May. Snow cover during the spring significantly retarded the ground warming. Broadly, snow cover in the study area exerts a cooling effect on the active layer and plays a positive role in the development and preservation of permafrost.","Snow cover influences the thermal regime of active layer in Urumqi River Source, Tianshan Mountains, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+563338,"Questions Can recent vegetation changes on an isolated, grazer-free island be explained by recent climate change? Are observed changes consistent when focusing on two different time scales? Location Jan Mayen, an arctic volcanic island in the North Atlantic Ocean. Methods We re-surveyed two botanical studies conducted 19 and 80 yr earlier to explore changes in species frequency, cover and co-occurrence with other species. The observed changes were statistically evaluated using restricted permutation tests and were compared for the two time scales considered using Pearson correlation tests. Results Total number of species did not significantly change over the two time periods considered. One species (Botrychium lunaria) was found new to the island. The dwarf-shrub Salix herbacea and several graminoids increased in frequency or cover, or both, whereas species linked to snowbeds (e.g. Saxifraga spp., Oxyria digyna, Cerastium cerastoides) decreased. Changes over 19 yr were significantly correlated with 80-yr changes considering species frequency, but not when comparing changes in cover and species co-occurrences. Observed changes were more pronounced in the 80-yr comparison. Conclusions Our findings from the virtually grazer-free island of Jan Mayen are in line with other studies on short- and long-term vegetation changes in the Arctic and confirm that indirect effects of climate change (e.g. longer growing season, altered soil moisture conditions, increased nutrient availability) may be the main driver of the observed changes in arctic vegetation composition. However, whereas our study found the main trend to be similar over both time scales considered, discrepancies in the trends of some species suggest that long-term changes are only partly predictable from short-term studies.",Changes in arctic vegetation on Jan Mayen Island over 19 and 80 years,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+777141,"1. Climate is widely assumed to influence physiological and demographic processes in trees, and hence forest composition, biomass and range limits. Growth in trees is an important barometer of climate change impacts on forests as growth is highly correlated with other demographic processes including tree mortality and fecundity. 2. We investigated the main drivers of diameter growth for five common tree species occurring in the Rocky Mountains of the western United States using nonlinear regression methods. We quantified growth at the individual tree level from tree core samples collected across broad environmental gradients. We estimated the effects of both climate variation and biotic interactions on growth processes and tested for evidence that disjunct populations of a species respond differentially to climate. 3. Relationships between tree growth and climate varied by species and location. Growth in all species responded positively to increases in annual moisture up to a threshold level. Modest linear responses to temperature, both positive and negative, were observed at many sites. However, model results also revealed evidence for differentiated responses to local site conditions in all species. In severe environments in particular, growth responses varied nonlinearly with temperature. For example, in northerly cold locations pronounced positive growth responses to increasing temperatures were observed. In warmer southerly climates, growth responses were unimodal, declining markedly above a threshold temperature level. 4. Net effects from biotic interactions on diameter growth were negative for all study species. Evidence for facilitative effects was not detected. For some species, competitive effects more strongly influenced growth performance than climate. Competitive interactions also modified growth responses to climate to some degree. 5. Synthesis. These analyses suggest that climate change will have complex, species-specific effects on tree growth in the Rocky Mountains due to nonlinear responses to climate, differentiated growth processes that vary by location and complex species interactions that impact growth and potentially modify responses to climate. Thus, robust model simulations of future growth responses to climate trends may need to integrate realistic scenarios of neighbourhood effects as well as variability in tree performance attributed to differentiated populations.",Climate and competition effects on tree growth in Rocky Mountain forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+501191,"The long lifespan of trees makes them sensitive to climate warming, particularly when abrupt changes in climatic conditions occur and when trees are already growing near to their climatic tolerance thresholds. In many Mediterranean pine forests, drought stress induced by warmer temperatures and increased aridification compromise tree survival, causing growth decline and, eventually, triggering tree mortality. We evaluated the effect of climate on radial growth and mortality comparing dead and living trees of two pine species, Pinus sylvestris and Pinus nigra subsp. salzmannii, in a continental Mediterranean area over a 50-year long period. We used linear mixed models and correlations to evaluate the effect of climate on basal area increment (BAI) and on ring-width indices, respectively. In P. nigra, growth was enhanced by wet and cold conditions, whilst growth increased with temperatures in P. sylvestris. A gradual BAI reduction was detected in P. nigra trees since the late 1970s, becoming more pronounced in recently dead trees. Contrarily, P. sylvestris growth did not show such decline, whilst death events in this species were linked to severe and punctual droughts. Our findings show that warming and drought stress trigger contrasting responses in functionally and phylogenetically similar tree species, and suggest climate mediated important changes on competitive dominance in Mediterranean forests. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Contrasting growth and mortality responses to climate warming of two pine species in a continental Mediterranean ecosystem,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1300494,"Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the eco-hydrological process. Comprehensive analyses of ET change at different spatial and temporal scales can enhance the understanding of hydrological processes and improve water resource management. In this study, monthly ET data and meteorological data from 57 meteorological stations between 2000 and 2014 were used to study the spatiotemporal changes in actual ET and the associated causes in the Hai Basin. A spatial analysis was performed in GIS to explore the spatial pattern of ET in the basin, while parametric t-test and nonparametric Mann-Kendall test methods were used to analyze the temporal characteristics of interannual and annual ET. The primary causes of the spatiotemporal variations were partly explained by detrended fluctuation analysis. The results were as follows: (i) generally, ET increased from northwest to southeast across the basin, with significant differences in ET due to the heterogeneous landscape. Notably, the ET of water bodies was highest, followed by those of paddy fields, forests, cropland, brush, grassland and settlement; (ii) from 2000 to 2014, annual ET exhibited an increasing trend of 3.7 mm per year across the basin, implying that the excessive utilization of water resources had not been alleviated and the water resource crisis worsened; (iii) changes in vegetation coverage, wind speed and air pressure were the major factors that influenced interannual ET trends. Temperature and NDVI largely explained the increases in ET in 2014 and can be used as indicators to evaluate annual ET and provide early warning for associated issues.",Spatiotemporal Analysis of Actual Evapotranspiration and Its Causes in the Hai Basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+127798,"In North American tidal marshes, prescribed burning has been used to manage waterfowl, furbearers, invasive plants, and fuels, but its effects on non-target species, such as marsh birds, are relatively unknown, particularly in the mid-Atlantic region. To address this informational need, we studied seaside sparrows (Ammodramus maritimus) in Dorchester County, Maryland, where prescribed marsh burning has been conducted since at least the 1930s. We compared the effects of 4 fire treatments (<1 yr since burn, 1-2 yr since burn, 3-4 yr since burn, and >= 5 yr since burn) on seaside sparrow density and reproductive output, and examined the impact of fire treatment, nest-site characteristics, and weather on nest survival from 2007 to 2009. We found that nest and territory densities were greatest on marshes <1 year post-burn, indicating that burning did not displace seaside sparrows. Nest and territory densities also declined as time since burn increased, and were about 50% less on marshes that were >= 5 years post-burn compared to marshes <1 year post-burn. Egg density (the number of eggs produced per ha) was 50% greater on marshes burned <1 year ago than on marshes burned 3-4 years ago, but we found no difference in fledgling density, indicating that predation may have disproportionately affected recently-burned marshes. Study year and percent cover of smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) best explained nest survival, which was lowest in 2009, a year with high precipitation and tides. We recommend that prescribed burning continue to be used at 1-4 year intervals to maintain habitat quality for breeding seaside sparrows in the mid-Atlantic, but suggest that the effects of fire management may be less influential than predicted impacts of global climate change. (C) 2012 The Wildlife Society.",Seaside Sparrow Reproductive Success in Relation to Prescribed Fire,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+782914,"While the role of deep roots in major ecosystem services has been shown for tropical forests, there have been few direct measurements of fine root dynamics at depths of more than 2 m. The factors influencing root phenology remain poorly understood, creating a gap in the knowledge required for predicting the effects of climate change. We set out to gain an insight into the fine root phenology of fast-growing trees in deep tropical soils. Fine root growth and mortality of Eucalyptus grandis trees were observed fortnightly using minirhizotrons down to a soil depth of 6 m, from 2 to 4 years after planting. In the topsoil, the highest live root length production was during the rainy summer (20 cm m(-2) d(-1)) whereas, below 2 m deep, it was at the end of the dry winter (51 cm m(-2) d(-1)). The maximum root elongation rates increased with soil depth to 3.6 cm d(-1) in the 5-6 m soil layer. Our study shows that the effect of the soil depth on the seasonal variations in fine root growth should be taken into account when modelling the carbon, water and nutrient cycles in forests growing on deep tropical soils.",Contrasting phenology of Eucalyptus grandis fine roots in upper and very deep soil layers in Brazil,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+264561,"Agricultural soils from many parts of the Mediterranean region are very poor in organic matter and are exposed to progressive degradation processes. Therefore, additions of the olive-mill waste from a continuous two-phase system as an organic amendment can improve soil quality and hence mitigate the negative environmental and agronomic limitations of these soils. A field study under semiarid Mediterranean conditions was conducted to evaluate the changes in organic matter after four consecutive annual additions of olive-mill watery husk (OMWH) waste and the de-oiled two-phase olive pomace (TPOP) waste on an olive grove soil: a cutanic Luvisol (CL). Treatments included a control, OMWH (30 and 60 Mg ha(-1), DW equivalent), and TPOP (27 and 54 Mg ha(-1), DW equivalent). Also, a two-year greenhouse study using wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was conducted to evaluate the residual effects of adding OMWH to CL soil and to a degraded Leptic Cambisol (LC). Treatments included five OMWH rates ranging from 0 to 40 Mg ha(-1). Significant increases in total organic carbon (TOC), water soluble organic carbon (WSOC), humic and fulvic acids, and aggregate stability were observed in the treated plots, and the highest humification index was obtained when OMWH was applied at the lowest rate. The increase in aggregate stability correlated positively and highly significantly (P<0.01) with the humic and fulvic acid and WSOC contents. In the greenhouse, significant increases in TOC, carbohydrates, aggregate stability, total N, available K, and cation exchange capacity were observed in both soils. However, available P decreased significantly. There was an increased residual fertilization effect of OMWH for both soils. The best fits to grain yield and OMWH rates were with a linear regression for the CL soil (R(2)=0.957 and P<0.01), and a quadratic regression for the LC soil (R(2)=0.960 and P<0.01).",Changes in organic matter and residual effect of amendment with two-phase olive-mill waste on degraded agricultural soils.,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+455161,"An analysis is made of changes in basal ice crust layer characteristics from snow cover surveys made at 958 Russian stations since 1966. The analysis revealed that substantial changes have occurred in response to two competing processes: an increase in thaws associated with strong regional warming and an increase in the duration of the basal ice layer presence on the ground, and a shortening of the snowmelt period associated with a decrease in basal ice layer event frequency and severity. The latter appears to be the more significant process over the past 40 years. Our findings support the notion that the entire spring snowmelt process has become shorter in duration and more intense when taking into account a concomitant trend toward increasing snow depths over large regions of Russia. A more intense spring melt period has important consequences for spring flood dynamics and deserves further study.",Snow cover basal ice layer changes over Northern Eurasia since 1966,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+456094,"The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.",Western water and climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+415218,"The 20th century seasonal Northern Hemisphere (NH) land snow cover as simulated by available CMIP5 model output is compared to observations. On average, the models reproduce the observed snow cover extent very well, but the significant trend towards a reduced spring snow cover extent over the 1979-2005 period is underestimated (observed: (-3.4 +/- 1.1)% per decade; simulated: (-1.0 +/- 0.3)% per decade). We show that this is linked to the simulated Northern Hemisphere extratropical spring land warming trend over the same period, which is also underestimated, although the models, on average, correctly capture the observed global warming trend. There is a good linear correlation between the extent of hemispheric seasonal spring snow cover and boreal large-scale spring surface air temperature in the models, supported by available observations. This relationship also persists in the future and is independent of the particular anthropogenic climate forcing scenario. Similarly, the simulated linear relationship between the hemispheric seasonal spring snow cover extent and global mean annual mean surface air temperature is stable in time. However, the slope of this relationship is underestimated at present (observed: (-11.8 +/- 2.7)%degrees C-1; simulated: (-5.1 +/- 3.0)%degrees C-1) because the trend towards lower snow cover extent is underestimated, while the recent global warming trend is correctly represented.",An analysis of present and future seasonal Northern Hemisphere land snow cover simulated by CMIP5 coupled climate models,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1286375,"In this study, we present a review of the current state-of-the-art research on streamflow alteration assessment, and examine the impact of climate variability and human activities on the natural streamflow of a tributary of Lake Maggiore (north-western Italy). The recent concept of climate elasticity of streamflow was used to indicate in which parameters the streamflow is more sensitive. First, a statistically identified change point was used to define the base period. Methods including hydrological sensitivity, climate elasticity and hydrological modelling then allowed us to estimate the anthropogenic and climatic effects on streamflow and to have an idea of the complicated non-linear relationship among streamflow, precipitation and temperature. Our results suggest that climate variability accounted for 85% of the decrease in streamflow. The remaining change could result from land cover-use change. The climate elasticity method used in this study could predict streamflow for future climatic change scenarios.",Quantifying impacts of climate variability and human activities on the streamflow of an Alpine river,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3917670,"The Blue, the Gray, and the Green is one of only a handful of books to apply an environmental history approach to the Civil War. This book explores how nature—disease, climate, flora and fauna, and other factors—affected the war and also how the war shaped Americans' perceptions, understanding, and use of nature. The contributors use a wide range of approaches that serve as a valuable template for future environmental histories of the conflict. In his introduction, Brian Allen Drake describes the sparse body of environmental history literature related to the Civil War and lays out a blueprint for the theoretical basis of each essay. Kenneth W. Noe emphasizes climate and its effects on agricultural output and the battlefield; Timothy Silver explores the role of disease among troops and animals; Megan Kate Nelson examines aridity and Union defeat in 1861 New Mexico; Kathryn Shively Meier investigates soldiers' responses to disease in the Peninsula Campaign; Aaron Sachs, John C. Inscoe, and Lisa M. Brady examine philosophical and ideological perspectives on nature before, during, and after the war; Drew Swanson discusses the war' s role in production and landscape change in piedmont tobacco country; Mart A. Stewart muses on the importance of environmental knowledge and experience for soldiers, civilians, and slaves; Timothy Johnson elucidates the ecological underpinnings of debt peonage during Reconstruction; finally, Paul S. Sutter speculates on the future of Civil War environmental studies. The Blue, the Gray, and the Green provides a provocative environmental commentary that enriches our understanding of the Civil War. © 2015 by the University of Georgia Press.","The blue, the gray, and the green: Toward an environmental history of the civil war",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+617872,"We extend an earlier bioeconomic model of optimal duck harvest and wetland retention in the Prairie Pothole Region of Western Canada to include cropping decisions. Instead of a single state equation, the model has two state equations representing the population dynamics of ducks and the amount of wetlands. We use the model to estimate the impact of climate change on wetlands and waterfowl, including direct climate effects as well as land use change due to biofuel policies aimed at mitigating climate change. The model predicts that climate change will reduce wetlands by 37-56% from historic levels. Land use change due to biofuel policies is expected to reduce wetlands by between 35% and 45% from historic levels, whereas direct climate effects will range from a reduction of 2-11%, depending on the future climate scenario. This result indicates that models that neglect the effect of land use changes underestimate the effect of climate change on wetlands. Further, wetlands loss is geographically heterogeneous, with losses being the largest in Saskatchewan.",THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WETLANDS AND WATERFOWL IN WESTERN CANADA: INCORPORATING CROPPING DECISIONS INTO A BIOECONOMIC MODEL,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2089982,"A new quantitative coastal land gained-and-lost method uses image analysis of topographic maps and Landsat thematic mapper short-wave infrared data to document accelerated coastal land loss and thermokarst lake expansion and drainage. The data span 1955-2005 along the Beaufort Sea coast north of Teshekpuk Lake in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. Some areas have undergone as much as 0.9 kin of coastal erosion in the past 50 yr. Land loss attributed to coastal erosion more than doubled, from 0.48 km(2) yr(-1) during 1955-1985 to 1.08 km(2) yr(-1) during 1985-2005. Coastal erosion has breached thermokarst lakes, causing initial draining of the lakes followed by marine flooding. Although inland thermokarst lakes show some uniform expansion, lakes breached by coastal erosion display lake expansion several orders of magnitude greater than inland lakes.",Quantitative remote sensing study indicates doubling of coastal erosion rate in past 50 yr along a segment of the Arctic coast of Alaska,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1497465,"This study demonstrates the potential value of forecasts to smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe, the majority of whom often suffer severely from the impact of drought. Using crop simulation models to compare yield performances of farmers with and without forecasts, results indicate that, for a drought year, farmers with forecasts (WF) record higher yield gains (28%) compared to those without forecasts (WOF): in particular, farmers located in the most arid regions (NR V) recorded the highest yield gains (42%). A similar trend is observed during a neutral/average year, as farmers WF obtain predominantly higher yield gains (20%) than those WOF. However, during a good year, results show a different pattern as no yield gains are observed. In fact, farmers WOF perform better, suggesting forecasts in this case may not make much difference. Using gross margin analysis, results show farmers WF obtaining higher returns during a drought (US$ 0.14 ha(-1)) and neutral year (US$ 0.43 ha(-1)) but again not for a good year as farmers WOF outperform those WF. To summarize, forecasts can play an important role as loss-minimization instruments especially if the underlying year is an El Nino (drought) year. In conclusion, to attain full economic value of forecasts, complementary policies (currently missing) such as effective communication, improvement in forecast extension skills and promotion of farmer participatory and outreach activities could prove vital in enhancing the value of forecasts to smallholder farmers in general.",Assessing the economic value of El Nino-based seasonal climate forecasts for smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1477251,"Ideal prediction and modeling of stream-flow and its hydrological applications are extremely significant for decision-making tasks and proper planning of water resource and hydraulic engineering. In the last two decades, the potential of soft computing approaches has increased dramatically in engineering and science problems. In this research, the utility of two soft computing approaches, namely support vector regression (SVR) model and generalized regression neural network (GRNN), is validated to predict 1 day ahead daily river flow data in the upper Senegal River basin at the Bafing Makana station in West Africa. The modeling is conducted by including the climatological information in the modeled stream-flow patterns. Correlation procedure is established and applied to obtain the modeling of the input variables with statistically significant lagged datasets at t - 1, t - 2, and t - 3 used as three input combination for each case study scenario. Different statistical indicators are used to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction models. The results show that the accuracy of the models varied by the scenario and the input datasets, where the SVR model yielded the best results for both modeling scenarios. It is also evident that combining the historical stream-flow data with the rainfall and evapotranspiration can ameliorate substantially the accuracy of the two models for predicting 1-day ahead stream-flow. A comparison of the optimal SVR and GRNN models in this problem indicates that SVR exhibits superior performance to the GRNN model in estimating the daily stream-flow data, irrespective of the modeling scenario and the datasets that is applied. The findings offer an opportunity to apply SVR model for predicting daily stream-flow, with less data requirement for the investigated Senegal River basin.",The influence of climatic inputs on stream-flow pattern forecasting: case study of Upper Senegal River,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+193444,"Hypotheses about how management practices influence ecosystem services can be tested using a crisp, probability-based, or fuzzy decision rule. The correct decision rule depends on whether: (I) the observed state of an ecosystem service (x) is non-stochastic or stochastic; (2) the true state of the ecosystem service (y) is non-stochastic or stochastic; and (3) the relationship between x and y is deterministic, stochastic, or uncertain. Crisp and probability-based decision rules are not appropriate when the relationship between y and x is uncertain in the sense that the decision maker is unable or unwilling to specify conditional probabilities of y given x. Under these conditions, a fuzzy decision rule is appropriate. A hypothetical case study is used to illustrate how a fuzzy decision rule is used to test hypotheses about whether selective cutting of timber provides greater or less forest biodiversity than clearcutting of timber. The case study describes how to incorporate the decision rule in an active adaptive management framework to sequentially test the extent to which changes over time in other factors influencing ecosystem services, such as greater spread of invasive species due to global warming, alter the efficacy of timber management practices. The fuzzy adaptive management decision rule can be generalized to account for the effects of management practices on multiple ecosystem services. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Adaptive management of natural systems using fuzzy logic,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2312134,"Rivers and their associated floodplains are among the world's most highly altered ecosystems, resulting in billions of dollars in restoration expenditures. Successful restoration of these systems requires information at multiple spatial scales (from localized reaches to broader-scale watersheds), as well as information spanning long time frames. Here, we develop a suite of historical landscape indicators of riverine status, primarily from the perspective of salmonid management, using a case study in the Interior Columbia Basin, Washington, USA. We use a combination of historical and modern aerial photography to quantify changes in land cover and reach type, as well as potential fish habitat within channel and off-channel floodplain areas. As of 1949,; 55% of the Wenatchee River floodplain had been converted to agriculture. By 2006, 62% had been modified by anthropogenic development, of which 20% was due to urban expansion. The historical percentage of agricultural land in the watershed and the contemporary percentage of urban area surpass thresholds in land cover associated with deleterious impacts on river systems. In addition, the abundance of reach types associated with the highest quality salmonid habitat (island braided and meandering reaches) has declined due to conversion to straight reach types. The area occupied by fish habitats associated with channel migration (slow/stagnant channels and dry channels) has declined approximately 25-30%. Along highly modified rivers, these habitats have also become increasingly fragmented. Caveats related to visual quality and seasonal timing of historical photographs were important considerations in the interpretation of changes witnessed for headwater island braided systems, as well as for floodplain ponds. Development of rigorous, long-term, multi-scale monitoring techniques is necessary to guide the management and restoration of river-floodplain systems for the diversity of ecosystem services they provide.","Long-term changes in river-floodplain dynamics: implications for salmonid habitat in the Interior Columbia Basin, USA",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+168642,"Monitoring and understanding climate-induced changes in the boreal and arctic vegetation is critical to aid in prognosticating their future. Weused a 33 year (1982-2014) long record of satellite observations to robustly assess changes in metrics of growing season (onset: SOS, end: EOS and length: LOS) and seasonal total gross primary productivity. Particular attention was paid to evaluating the accuracy of these metrics by comparing them to multiple independent direct and indirect growing season and productivity measures. These comparisons reveal that the derived metrics capture the spatio-temporal variations and trends with acceptable significance level (generally p < 0.05). We find that LOS has lengthened by 2.60 d dec(-1) (p < 0.05) due to an earlier onset of SOS (-1.61 d dec(-1), p < 0.05) and a delayed EOS (0.67 d dec(-1), p < 0.1) at the circumpolar scale over the past three decades. Relatively greater rates of changes in growing season were observed in Eurasia (EA) and in boreal regions than in North America (NA) and the arctic regions. However, this tendency of earlier SOS and delayed EOS was prominent only during the earlier part of the data record (1982-1999). During the later part (2000-2014), this tendency was reversed, i.e. delayed SOS and earlier EOS. As for seasonal total productivity, we find that 42.0% of northern vegetation shows a statistically significant (p < 0.1) greening trend over the last three decades. This greening translates to a 20.9% gain in productivity since 1982. In contrast, only 2.5% of northern vegetation shows browning, or a 1.2% loss of productivity. These trends in productivity were continuous through the period of record, unlike changes in growing season metrics. Similarly, we find relatively greater increasing rates of productivity in EA and in arctic regions than in NA and the boreal regions. These results highlight spatially and temporally varying vegetation dynamics and are reflective of biome-specific responses of northern vegetation during last three decades.",Changes in growing season duration and productivity of northern vegetation inferred from long-term remote sensing data,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1906466,"Oceanic phytoplankton respond rapidly to a complex spectrum of climate-driven perturbations, confounding attempts to isolate the principal causes of observed changes. A dominant mode of variability in the Earth-climate system is that generated by the El Nino phenomenon. Marked variations are observed in the centroid of anomalous warming in the Equatorial Pacific under El Nino, associated with quite different alterations in environmental and biological properties. Here, using observational and reanalysis datasets, we differentiate the regional physical forcing mechanisms, and compile a global atlas of associated impacts on oceanic phytoplankton caused by two extreme types of El Nino. We find robust evidence that during Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types of El Nino, impacts on phytoplankton can be felt everywhere, but tend to be greatest in the tropics and subtropics, encompassing up to 67% of the total affected areas, with the remaining 33% being areas located in high-latitudes. Our analysis also highlights considerable and sometimes opposing regional effects. During EP El Nino, we estimate decreases of -56 TgC/y in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and -82 TgC/y in the western Indian Ocean, and increase of +13 TgC/y in eastern Indian Ocean, whereas during CP El Nino, we estimate decreases -68 TgC/y in the tropical western Pacific Ocean and -10 TgC/y in the central Atlantic Ocean. We advocate that analysis of the dominant mechanisms forcing the biophysical under El Nino variability may provide a useful guide to improve our understanding of projected changes in the marine ecosystem in a warming climate and support development of adaptation and mitigation plans.",Impact of El Nino Variability on Oceanic Phytoplankton,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1906117,"Climate variation has been linked to historical and predicted future distributions and dynamics of wildlife populations. However, demographic mechanisms underlying these changes remain poorly understood. Here, we assessed variation and trends in climate (annual snowfall and spring temperature anomalies) and avian demographic variables from mist-netting data (breeding phenology and productivity) at six sites along an elevation gradient spanning the montane zone of Yosemite National Park between 1993 and 2017. We implemented multi-species hierarchical models to relate demographic responses to elevation and climate covariates. Annual variation in climate and avian demographic variables was high. Snowfall declined (10 mm/year at the highest site, 2 mm at the lowest site), while spring temperature increased (0.045 degrees C/year) over the study period. Breeding phenology (mean first capture date of juvenile birds) advanced by 0.2 day/year (5 days); and productivity (probability of capturing a juvenile bird) increased by 0.8%/year. Breeding phenology was 12 days earlier at the lowest compared to highest site, 18 days earlier in years with lowest compared to highest snowfall anomalies, and 6 d earlier in relatively warm springs (after controlling for snowfall effects). Productivity was positively related to elevation. However, elevation-productivity responses varied among species; species with higher productivity at higher compared to lower elevations tended to be species with documented range retractions during the past century. Productivity tended to be negatively related to snowfall and was positively related to spring temperature. Overall, our results suggest that birds have tracked the variable climatic conditions in this system and have benefited from a trend toward warmer, drier springs. However, we caution that continued warming and multi-year drought or extreme weather years may alter these relationships in the future. Multi-species demographic modeling, such as implemented here, can provide an important tool for guiding conservation of species assemblages under global change.",Phenology and productivity in a montane bird assemblage: Trends and responses to elevation and climate variation,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1507262,"Background: An association between high heat and acute kidney injury (AKI) has been reported in warm climates. However, whether this association generalizes to a northern climate, with more variable temperatures, is unknown. Study Design: Matched case-control study. Setting & Participants: Our study focused on older adults (mean age, 80 years) in the northern climate of Ontario, Canada. 52,913 case patients who had a hospital encounter with AKI in April through September 2005 to 2012 were matched with 174,222 controls for exact date, age, sex, rural residence, income, and history of chronic kidney disease. Predictor: Heat periods were defined as 3 consecutive days exceeding the 95th percentile of area-specific maximum temperature. Outcomes: Hospital encounter (inpatient admission or emergency department visit) with a diagnosis of AKI. Measurements: ORs (95% CIs) were used to assess the association between heat periods and AKI. To quantify the effect in absolute terms, we multiplied the population incidence rate of AKI in the absence of heat periods by our adjusted OR (an approximate of relative risk). Results: Heat periods were significantly associated with higher risk for AKI (adjusted OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.00-1.23). Heat periods in absolute terms were associated with an additional 182 cases of AKI per 100,000 person-years during the warm season. Limitations: We did not know how long persons were outside or if they had access to air conditioning. Conclusions: In a northern climate, periods of higher environmental heat were associated with a modestly higher risk for hospital encounter with AKI among older adults.",Association Between High Environmental Heat and Risk of Acute Kidney Injury Among Older Adults in a Northern Climate: A Matched Case-Control Study,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1407724,The western equatorial Pacific warm pool is subject to strong east-west migrations on interannual time scales in phase with the Southern Oscillation Index. The dominance of surface zonal advection in this migration is demonstrated with four different current data sets and three ocean models. The eastward advection of warm and less saline water from the western Pacific together with the westward advection of cold and more saline water from the central-eastern Pacific induces a convergence of water masses at the eastern edge of the warm pool and a well-defined salinity front. The location of this convergence is zonally displaced in association with El Nino-La Nina wind-driven surface current variations. These advective processes and water-mass convergences have significant implications for understanding and simulating coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).,Mechanism of the zonal displacements of the Pacific warm pool: Implications for ENSO,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3316261,"With the acceleration in global warming, extreme hot temperatures have emerged as one of the most prominent risks. In this study, we characterize the unprecedented extreme temperatures that occurred in Korea in summer 2018, and attempt to explain how this locally observed extreme event can be interpreted in the context of 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C global warming above the pre-industrial level. To better resolve geographically diverse climate features and enhance confidence in future changes, three global projections are dynamically downscaled using three regional climate models that are customized over Korea and the systematic biases are statistically corrected using quantile mapping. In July and August 2018, abnormally high maximum temperatures (Tmax) were observed over the entire territory of South Korea. Beyond the increase of mean value, Tmax at individual stations departed significantly from the typical Gaussian distribution of climatological Tmax due to the dramatic changes in the extent and shape of upper tails. The distinct behaviors of Tmax that appeared in 2018 largely represent the statistical analog of the distribution pattern expected under 3 degrees C global warming based on fine-scale climate projections. This implies that statistically extremely rare events like that of summer 2018 will become increasingly normal if global average temperature is allowed to increase by 3 degrees C. More importantly, the extreme heat stress measured by the wet-bulb globe temperature is projected to intensify the risks to a level never before seen in contemporary climate. This study is timely and relevant to the need to identify how the globally aggregated warming target temperature can be disaggregated into regional impacts.",2018 summer extreme temperatures in South Korea and their intensification under 3 degrees C global warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+679613,"The accelerating rates of international trade, travel, and transport in the latter half of the twentieth century have led to the progressive mixing of biota from across the world and the number of species introduced to new regions continues to increase. The importance of biogeographic, climatic, economic, and demographic factors as drivers of this trend is increasingly being realized but as yet there is no consensus regarding their relative importance. Whereas little may be done to mitigate the effects of geography and climate on invasions, a wider range of options may exist to moderate the impacts of economic and demographic drivers. Here we use the most recent data available from Europe to partition between macroecological, economic, and demographic variables the variation in alien species richness of bryophytes, fungi, vascular plants, terrestrial insects, aquatic invertebrates, fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Only national wealth and human population density were statistically significant predictors in the majority of models when analyzed jointly with climate, geography, and land cover. The economic and demographic variables reflect the intensity of human activities and integrate the effect of factors that directly determine the outcome of invasion such as propagule pressure, pathways of introduction, eutrophication, and the intensity of anthropogenic disturbance. The strong influence of economic and demographic variables on the levels of invasion by alien species demonstrates that future solutions to the problem of biological invasions at a national scale lie in mitigating the negative environmental consequences of human activities that generate wealth and by promoting more sustainable population growth.",Disentangling the role of environmental and human pressures on biological invasions across Europe,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1554479,"The Arctic is among the fastest warming regions on Earth, but it is also one with limited spatial coverage of multidecadal instrumental surface air temperature measurements. Consequently, atmospheric reanalyses are relatively unconstrained in this region, resulting in a large spread of estimated 30 year recent warming trends, which limits their use to investigate the mechanisms responsible for this trend. Here we present a surface temperature reconstruction over 1982-2011 at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling Project, 51 degrees W, 77 degrees N), in North Greenland, based on the inversion of borehole temperature and inert gas isotope data. We find that NEEM has warmed by 2.7 +/- 0.33 degrees C over the past 30 years, from the long-term 1900-1970 average of -28.55 +/- 0.29 degrees C. The warming trend is principally caused by an increase in downward longwave heat flux. Atmospheric reanalyses underestimate this trend by 17%, underlining the need for more in situ observations to validate reanalyses.",The recent warming trend in North Greenland,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+747941,"Climate has been demonstrated to change at different scales for as far back as we have been able to reconstruct it. However, anthropogenic factors have accelerated and are predicted to cause significant changes in temperature and precipitation around the globe. As a consequence, vegetation is being affected. To understand the historical behaviour of individual tree species and have insight on the potential effects of climate change, tree-ring studies have been applied. In this study, we examined a genus new to dendrochronology, namely Baikiaea plurijuga (Spreng.) Harm that dominates the Zambezi teak forests in Zambia with the objective of determining whether B. plurijuga forms annual rings and if so, whether these rings are cross-datable. We further determined the relationship between ring- width of B. plurijuga and climatic variables with the aim of understanding the potential climate change effects on the growth of these species in Zambia. We collected tree-ring samples from three Zambezi Teak forest reserves: Zambezi, Ila, and Masese located in Kabompo, Namwala, and Sesheke study sites respectively. Our examination of wood anatomical structures reviewed that the wood of B. plurijuga is diffuse porous and forms annual rings which were confirmed with samples of known age. The analysis resulted in three strong tree-ring chronologies of B. plurijuga. These chronologies were correlated with climate data from local weather stations which correlated negatively with evaporation and temperature and positively with rainfall. Our regression analysis indicated that evaporation has the highest influence on tree growth at all the study sites compared to temperature and rainfall alone. Evaporation in November and March, for example, explained almost a third of the radiis variance at the Namwala and Sesheke sites. The likely future temperature increase and rainfall decrease that are projected by IPCC for Southern Africa are likely to adversely affect B. plurijuga in Zambia. (C) 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.",The dendrochronological potential of Baikiaea plurijuga in Zambia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1060047,"A comprehensive field study ongoing in Eastern Indonesia has provided data for a trophodynamic Ecosim ecosystem model of the Raja Ampat archipelago on the west coast of New Guinea. Model dynamics have been tuned to agree with local catch and relative biomass time series data developed for this project, and validated by experts. The model is used in this article to investigate five high priority research questions related to ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) in the region. Regency fisheries managers and scientific partners working in Indonesia posed the questions. Here, we analyze the ecosystem impacts of blast fishing, including trophic effects and removal of refuge space. Removal of refuge space is as harmful to juvenile reef fish populations as direct mortality from the fishery itself, reef damage is cumulative due to the slow re-growth rate of corals. We quantify the likely ecological and economic impacts of limiting commercial fisheries for groupers. Artisanal fisheries benefit slightly and system biodiversity is improved, but the improvement is lost if artisanal fisheries increase effort to compensate for missing catch. We forecast the effects of limiting commercial net fisheries for reef fish. There is a marginal increase in reef fish biomass and an unexpected benefit to large pelagic species due to reduced interception of their anchovy prey. We evaluate the exploitation status of anchovy and tuna and report on the ecosystem effects of these fisheries. All fisheries appear fully exploited in Raja Ampat or nearly so. There is an indication that anchovies provide an ecosystem service: a large population may act to buffer fluctuations in large pelagic fish biomass under climate variation. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Ecosystem simulations supporting ecosystem-based fisheries management in the Coral Triangle, Indonesia",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+107374,"How much old growth is there? How much was there? Is remaining old growth disappearing? If so, how fast and why? Is any more old growth being created? How fragmented are old-growth forests? What other forest types and land uses surround them? Scientists see these as challenging questions, never to be fully resolved. Policy makers see information gaps and want answers. They assume that because the public values old-growth forests, their continuing availability must be assured. Forest managers need to be convinced that old-growth forests provide unique values before taking costly measures to conserve them. The relative stability of old-growth forests is interesting from a management perspective. Are old-growth forests more resistant to high-intensity disturbances, such as crown fires and violent storms? Do they resist insect outbreaks? A related issue is the quality of ecosystem services provided by old-growth forests. Do they have an exceptional ability to provide clean water, to stabilize hydrologic regimes, and to moderate local climates? Can they be used to test hypotheses about complexity, stability, resilience, and ecosystem change? These questions provide a strong rationale for developing working definitions of old-growth forests, for retaining areas of old-growth forest, and for replicating old-growth features in landscapes managed for timber production. Old-growth forests are desirable sites for monitoring, serving as benchmarks for adaptive management. Knowledge about old-growth forests has already had a considerable impact on policy and management, particularly in coastal regions. Current research and monitoring systems may not be adequate for the task of identifying and describing the biological complexity and diversity inherent in old-growth forests. New investments in collecting and managing data from old-growth (and secondary) forests are needed, and will pay manifold dividends to future generations of Canadians. This paper suggests that the central role of old-growth forests in developing sustainable forest management should create an incentive for the forest science, policy, and management communities to unite in support of their conservation.",Old-growth forests: Data gaps and challenges,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+445432,"Shifting plant phenology (i.e., timing of flowering and other developmental events) in recent decades establishes that species and ecosystems are already responding to global environmental change. Earlier flowering and an extended period of active plant growth across much of the northern hemisphere have been interpreted as responses to warming. However, several kinds of environmental change have the potential to influence the phenology of flowering and primary production. Here, we report shifts in phenology of flowering and canopy greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) in response to four experimentally simulated global changes: warming, elevated CO2, nitrogen (N) deposition, and increased precipitation. Consistent with previous observations, warming accelerated both flowering and greening of the canopy, but phenological responses to the other global change treatments were diverse. Elevated CO2 and N addition delayed flowering in grasses, but slightly accelerated flowering in forbs. The opposing responses of these two important functional groups decreased their phenological complementarity and potentially increased competition for limiting soil resources. At the ecosystem level, timing of canopy greenness mirrored the flowering phenology of the grasses, which dominate primary production in this system. Elevated CO2 delayed greening, whereas IN addition dampened the acceleration of greening caused by warming. Increased precipitation had no consistent impacts on phenology. This diversity of phenological changes, between plant functional groups and in response to multiple environmental changes, helps explain the diversity in large-scale observations and indicates that changing temperature is only one of several factors reshaping the seasonality of ecosystem processes.",Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1304750,"Climate and viticulture are indisputably linked and thus knowledge of the predominant weather and climate conditions of a given area is essential for optimum variety selection, viable production and overall wine quality. In this study, an assessment of the current (1981-2010) and future conditions (2021-2050 and 2061-2090) through principal climatic elements and six bioclimatic indices (i.e. Growing season average temperature, growing degree-days, Huglin index, biologically effective degree-days, dryness index and cool night index) at 23 weather stations proximal to the key mainland, coastal and island viticultural areas of Greece was performed. Mainland locations were generally colder due to their wider variety of terroir aspects and elevation, while coastal locations and islands faced proportionally more extreme temperatures and drier conditions. Trend analysis revealed that minimum temperatures increased at higher rates than the respective maximum temperatures at most locations. Climate change scenarios derived from the regional climate model RegCM4 suggested significant shifts towards warmer and drier conditions across all locations in the future. These conditions are very likely to advance phenology and harvest beyond what is considered suitable and will likely have detrimental impacts on wine quality. Differences in impacts will likely be seen between wine areas currently cultivated with early ripening (reducing variety suitability) versus those with later-ripening (increasing consistency in ripening) varieties. Overall, the changes projected for the future climate will challenge the Greek wine industry to increase its adaptive capacity through better understanding of temperature thresholds for the varieties grown and the adoption of new cultivation techniques and strategies.",Response of viticulture-related climatic indices and zoning to historical and future climate conditions in Greece,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3909438,"In most regions of the central part of the North Caucasus, there is a persistent increase in the prevalence rate of congenital malformations of the child population and the development of other health problems. It is probable due to the fact that unlike many other regions of Russia the upper reaches of the Kuban water are contaminated by metals with a significant excess of MPCrx due to their entry from rock depths. The highest excess of manganese, copper and iron was observed. For other metals there are specific for individual waters deviations upward or downward. To date, the water in large quantities for the irrigation network is transmitted in steppe regions, feasting upon the path of additional quantities of natural contaminants, and mainly anthropogenic origin. The massive use of irrigated agriculture, the saturation of groundwater contaminants is the basis for their accumulation in the agricultural products. Thus, after drinking it is the second a local source of metals in the human body. The problem for detection of correlative relationships between pollution and human health in this case is the lack of such a target as the total MPC of pollutants in the human body, balancing entry-selection for different age, gender and other characteristics of human differences. © 2017 Izdatel'stvo Meditsina. All rights reserved.",The problem of the assessment of background content of heavy metal in the Kuban-manych waterway,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1429647,"Eastern North American forests have effectively lost two major tree species (American chestnut and American elm) in the last 100 years and two more, eastern and Carolina hemlock, will be functionally extinct overmuch of their ranges within a couple of decades. The loss of eastern hemlock is of particular concern because hemlock is: (1) a foundation species; (2) one of the longest-lived tree species over much of temperate eastern North America; and (3) sensitive to climatic variation and ecosystem disturbance, making it an ideal species for the reconstruction of environmental history. Unlike American chestnut, we have a small window of opportunity to salvage environmental histories from hemlock before they are lost. In this progress report, we review the extensive body of science derived from this paleoenvironmental archive and urge scientists from eastern North America to sample and archive old-growth hemlock while living and dead material remain. Here we describe a community-based approach to salvaging paleoenvironmental archives that could serve as a model for collections from other foundation species currently threatened by exotic forests pests and pathogens (e. g. whitebark pine, ash). The approach supports Schlesinger's (2010) call for 'translational ecology' by building connections between scientists, students, environmental NGOs, and land managers focused on old-growth forests.",Hemlock Legacy Project (HeLP): A paleoecological requiem for eastern hemlock,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+50903,"In late summer 2005 a mass coral bleaching event occurred in the Caribbean. Here we quantify coral bleaching in Barbados at six sites on the island's sheltered west and exposed southwest coasts, including nearshore fringing and patch reefs and offshore bank reef habitats. Onset of coral bleaching occurred in late August 2005 and persisted for many months after temperatures cooled. All reef habitats and virtually all coral taxa were affected, with an average of 70.6% of all colonies bleaching. Nearshore reefs (< 10 m depth) were affected more severely than offshore deeper reefs (> 15 m) with an average of 80.6% of all coral colonies bleaching compared with 60.5% on the latter. Inter-species variation in susceptibility to bleaching was marked with > 90% of colonies bleaching in some species whilst < 10% bleached in others. Follow-up surveys revealed low coral mortality, with an overall mean of 3.8% partial colony death across all species and reefs by February 2006. However, bleached condition has persisted with a mean of 37.7% of all coral colonies still bleached after 5 1/2 months, indicating that loss of live coral is likely to continue for some time. This event represents the most severe bleaching episode ever witnessed on Barbados' reefs and emphasises the vulnerability of small island states, with a high reliance on healthy coral reef ecosystem services, to elevated sea water temperatures associated with climate variability and global climate change.","Quantitative observations of a major coral bleaching event in Barbados, Southeastern Caribbean",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+556979,"Satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a proxy of vegetation productivity, is known to be correlated with temperature in northern ecosystems. This relationship, however, may change over time following alternations in other environmental factors. Here we show that above 30 degrees N, the strength of the relationship between the interannual variability of growing season NDVI and temperature (partial correlation coefficient RNDV-GT) declined substantially between 1982 and 2011. This decrease in RNDVI-GT is mainly observed in temperate and arctic ecosystems, and is also partly reproduced by process-based ecosystem model results. In the temperate ecosystem, the decrease in RNDVI-GT coincides with an increase in drought. In the arctic ecosystem, it may be related to a nonlinear response of photosynthesis to temperature, increase of hot extreme days and shrub expansion over grass-dominated tundra. Our results caution the use of results from interannual time scales to constrain the decadal response of plants to ongoing warming.",Evidence for a weakening relationship between interannual temperature variability and northern vegetation activity,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2316845,"With increasing temperatures and projected changes in moisture availability for the Mediterranean climate of northern California, empirical evidence of the long-term responses of forests to climate are important for managing these ecosystems. We can assess forest treatment strategies to improve climate resilience by examining past responses to climate for both managed and unmanaged plantations. Using an experimental, long-term density and shrub removal study of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Lawson & C. Lawson) on a poor-quality site with low water-holding capacity and high runoff of the North Coastal mountain range in California, we examined the relationships between radial growth and climate for these trees over a common interval of 1977-2011. Resistance indices, defined here as the ratio between current year radial growth and the performance of the four previous years, were correlated to climatic variables during the same years. We found that all treatments' radial growth benefited from seasonal spring moisture availability during the current growing year. Conversely, high spring and early summer temperatures had detrimental effects on growth. High-density treatments with manzanita understories were sensitive to summer droughts while lower densities and treatments with full shrub removal were not. The explanatory power of the climate regression models was generally more consistent for the same shrub treatments across the four different densities. The resistance indices for the lower density and complete shrub removal treatment groups were less dependent on previous years' climatic conditions. We conclude that, for ponderosa pine plantations with significant manzanita encroachment, understory removal and heavy thinning treatments increase subsequent growth for remaining trees and decrease sensitivity to climate.",Climate Effect on Ponderosa Pine Radial Growth Varies with Tree Density and Shrub Removal,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+977013,"A suite of techniques, including coal petrology, micropalynology, mesofossil analysis, and macroscopic appearance has been used to examine the Early Permian, South African, Witbank Basin No. 2 seam from a sample locality near Ogies. This coal appears to be similar in its palynological and petrographic composition to other coals of this interval from this basin. However, its accumulation appears to have been largely hypautochthonous or allochthonous evidenced by, erosive contacts, small scale cross-laminations, and fine lenticular bodies being recognised within the coal seam profile. This ex situ deposition probably, in part, relates to frequent wildfire activity, which may have promoted subsequent run-off and erosion, and led to the numerous mineral-rich horizons observed in the sample seam profile. In addition to the sedimentological characters described above, the petrology of the seam and its mesofossils, most particularly megaspores from a lycopsid parent vegetation, indicate saturated peat-forming conditions. However, examination of charred mesofossil fragments indicates periods of low humidity and even drying of the peat itself rendering it liable to combustion. These contradictory characters may indicate seasonality and suggest a coldness of the climate, at least for part of the year, that could account for the retardation of peat decay during these drier intervals. These characters can be reconciled with deposition during an interglacial phase as the Dwyka glaciation terminates, as has previously been proposed for the Witbank Basin No. 2 seam. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.","Hypautochthonous-allochthonous coal deposition in the Permian, South African, Witbank Basin No. 2 seam; a combined approach using sedimentology, coal petrology and palaeontology",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3966227,"In this study we evaluate Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) assessment tools with regard to their suitability for covering not only biophysical but also socio-economic aspects of CSA, focusing on smallholder household level in Low and Middle Income Countries (LMIC). In this opinion piece we give a concise overview of the most recent developments in measuring key indicators and metrics for the three pillars of CSA (food security, adaptation, and mitigation) and give our opinion on how we think this would allow for improvements in the current state of assessing CSA in a smallholder farming context. Our assessment shows that all tools reviewed here have a biophysical lens while looking at productivity, and largely ignore potential social (e.g., food security, gender) and economic (poverty) aspects of the sustainability of intensified production. Mitigation was also analyzed in all approaches but few tools go beyond greenhouse gas emissions to analyse environmental sustainability (for example water quality, soil health, ecosystem services) more generically. Climate change adaptation was the CSA pillar with the weakest representation within the approaches reviewed here. Based on an overview of recent advantages in work focusing on CSA our key recommendations are (i) to make better use of recent advances in indicator development for sustainability assessments, including work on quantification of water and land footprints in relation to farm management; (ii) to use household level analyses to quantify pathways from productivity toward food security and improved nutrition as well as descripting drivers of adoption of adaptation options; and (iii) to use recent advances in system specific quantification of greenhouse gas emissions through both LMIC focused modeling and empirical work.",Improving Assessments of the Three Pillars of Climate Smart Agriculture: Current Achievements and Ideas for the Future,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+103981,"Observations show that the amplitude of the annual atmospheric carbon dioxide cycle has increased. Lagged correlations between carbon dioxide, temperature, and vegetation suggest a modulation by ecosystem response, but the mechanisms remain unclear. Hypotheses include an early season uptake increase and/or winter respiration increase related to climate warming, and increased cycling in cooler conditions caused by disturbances such as fire. The first hypotheses suggest a positive feedback to regional warming, whereas the last suggests a negative Feedback. Here it is shown that fire, as it influences species composition, can serve to enhance the increase in early season uptake but that a crucial determinant for the sign of the feedback is the impact of climate change on soil moisture.",Impacts of fire and warming on ecosystem uptake in the boreal forest,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+573015,"The focus of most research on the influence of recent climate change on birds has been on the northern hemisphere. Climate change has been different in the southern hemisphere, prohibiting extrapolation from northern research findings and inference regarding future climate change to species living there. We investigated the correlation between climatic conditions and survival of a migratory population of African Reed Warblers Acrocephlaus baeticatus in Paarl, South Africa. We used temperature and rainfall in its breeding area, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in its wintering area, Central Africa around the Congo Basin. We fitted capture-mark-recapture models for open populations to a 12-year ringing dataset (1998-2010). After accounting for transience this species exhibits high breeding site fidelity with a 'Time-Since Marking' model we found a mean survival probability of 0.79 +/- 0.04 SE. Rainfall and NDVI did not influence survival in this dataset. Mean temperature (Aug-Apr) had a positive effect on survival: an increase of 1.6 degrees C was associated with an increase of annual survival from 0.69 +/- 0.05 to 0.88 +/- 0.03. Higher temperatures could have increased local survival by providing more food and breeding habitat, thereby increasing adult body condition and reducing foraging costs, predation and territorial conflicts. Even though we would need data on abundance and reproduction to quantify the effects of climatic conditions on population growth, we found a clear effect of climatic variation on a key demographic parameter, adult survival.",Climatic influences on survival of migratory African Reed Warblers Acrocephalus baeticatus in South Africa,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+649657,"Results from a regional climate model simulation show substantial increases in future flood risk (2040-69) in many Pacific Northwest river basins in the early fall. Two primary causes are identified: 1) more extreme and earlier storms and 2) warming temperatures that shift precipitation from snow to rain dominance over regional terrain. The simulations also show a wide range of uncertainty among different basins stemming from localized storm characteristics. While previous research using statistical downscaling suggests that many areas in the Pacific Northwest are likely to experience substantial increases in flooding in response to global climate change, these initial estimates do not adequately represent the effects of changes in heavy precipitation. Unlike statistical downscaling techniques applied to global climate model scenarios, the regional model provides an explicit, physically based simulation of the seasonality, size, location, and intensity of historical and future extreme storms, including atmospheric rivers. This paper presents climate projections from the ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM) global climate model dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model implemented at 12-km resolution for the period 1970-2069. The resulting daily precipitation and temperature data are bias corrected and used as input to a physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. From the daily time step simulations of streamflow produced by the hydrologic model, probability distributions are fit to the extreme events extracted from each water year and flood statistics for various return intervals are estimated.",Estimates of Twenty-First-Century Flood Risk in the Pacific Northwest Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+773183,"The sea ice concentration dataset (covering the period 1992-2008) used in this study is a new dataset based on the Sea Ice Climate Change Initiative (SICCI) algorithm. We investigate whether the SICCI dataset is on a par with other datasets for studying sea ice cover changes in the Southern Ocean. We then examine spatiotemporal variations in sea ice derived from the SICCI dataset over the Southern Ocean, and analyse relationships of sea ice with sea surface temperature (SST). The results indicate that there is no significant difference between the SICCI dataset and the NASA Team dataset, and therefore the former can also be used for studying sea ice changes. Both sea ice extent (SIE) and sea ice area (SIA) derived from the SICCI dataset over the Southern Ocean increased slightly from 1992 to 2008, at rates of (17.75 +/- 11.50) x 10(3) and (17.37 +/- 9.51) x 10(3) km(2) yr(-1), respectively. Antarctic sea ice has significant seasonal variations; all seasonally averaged SIE and SIA show an increase, with spring showing the largest positive changing rate. The Weddell Sea, Ross Sea, and Indian Ocean have positive yearly changing rates in SIE and SIA, while the Bellingshausen/Amundsen seas and western Pacific Ocean have negative yearly changing rates. However, overall sea ice over the Southern Ocean has a slight positive trend, which is the same as the sea ice change pattern derived from the NASA Team dataset. This indicates that the contributions to the change in sea ice over the whole Southern Ocean due to the Weddell Sea, Ross Sea, and Indian Ocean dominate over those by the Bellingshausen/Amundsen seas and western Pacific Ocean. Further analysis shows that both SIE and SIA are negatively correlated with SST in the Southern Ocean or each of the 5 longitudinal sectors, and sea ice is more sensitive to SST in spring and autumn.",Antarctic sea ice change based on a new sea ice dataset from 1992 to 2008,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+1365574,"Rice and wheat are the two most important cereals in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and are responsible for the food security of the region. To understand the productivity trends in the transects of the IGP: (1) the climatic potential yields of rice and wheat were simulated using a crop simulation modeling approach and (2) the long-term trends of potential and on-farm yields were compared. The potential yields of rice and wheat in the IGP ranged from 7.7 to 10.7 and 5.2 to 7.9 Mg ha(-1), respectively. The upper transects of the IGP are more productive and yield decreases by 27% for rice and by 32% for wheat from transect 2 to transect 5. The rate of change in the potential yield trend of rice from 1985 to 2000 ranged from -0.12 to 0.05 Mg ha(-1) per year. Negative yield trends were observed at six of the nine sites, four of which were statistically significant (P < 0.05). The decrease in radiation and increase in minimum temperature were the reasons for the yield decline. The potential yield trend of wheat, however, appeared to be stable. On-farm yields of rice also showed a negative trend but for wheat the trend was mostly positive. The adverse changes in the weather parameters and declining trends of potential and on-farm yields of rice should be taken as an indication of a future problem. Regular on-farm monitoring of crops and climatic factors is urgently needed for predicting problems and allowing measures to be taken to improve productivity. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.",Trends of climatic potential and on-farm yields of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic Plains,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1292416,"El Nino has two different flavors, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Ninos, with different global teleconnections. However, their different impacts on the interannual carbon cycle variability remain unclear. Here we compared the behaviors of interannual atmospheric CO2 variability and analyzed their terrestrial mechanisms during these two types of El Ninos, based on the Mauna Loa (MLO) CO2 growth rate (CGR) and the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model's (DGVM) historical simulations. The composite analysis showed that evolution of the MLO CGR anomaly during EP and CP El Ninos had three clear differences: (1) negative or neutral precursors in the boreal spring during an El Nino developing year (denoted as ""yr0""), (2) strong or weak amplitudes, and (3) durations of the peak from December (yr0) to April during an El Nino decaying year (denoted as ""yr1"") compared to October (yr0) to January (yr1) for a CP El Nino, respectively. The global land-atmosphere carbon flux (F-TA) simulated by multi-models was able to capture the essentials of these characteristics. We further found that the gross primary productivity (GPP) over the tropics and the extratropical Southern Hemisphere (Trop + SH) generally dominated the global F-TA variations during both El Nino types. Regional analysis showed that during EP El Nino events significant anomalous carbon uptake caused by increased precipitation and colder temperatures, corresponding to the negative precursor, occurred between 30 degrees S and 20 degrees N from January (yr0) to June (yr0). The strongest anomalous carbon releases, largely due to the reduced GPP induced by low precipitation and warm temperatures, occurred between the equator and 20 degrees N from February (yr1) to August (yr1). In contrast, during CP El Nino events, clear carbon releases existed between 10 degrees N and 20 degrees S from September (yr0) to September (yr1), resulting from the widespread dry and warm climate conditions. Different spatial patterns of land temperatures and precipitation in different seasons associated with EP and CP El Ninos accounted for the evolutionary characteristics of GPP, terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), and the resultant F-TA. Understanding these different behaviors of interannual atmospheric CO2 variability, along with their terrestrial mechanisms during EP and CP El Ninos, is important because the CP El Nino occurrence rate might increase under global warming.",Contrasting interannual atmospheric CO2 variabilities and their terrestrial mechanisms for two types of El Ninos,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2355866,"Forest attributes and their abundances define the stand structural complexity available as habitat for faunal biodiversity; however, intensive anthropogenic disturbances have the potential to degrade and simplify forest stands. In this paper we develop an index of stand structural complexity and show how anthropogenic disturbances, namely fire, logging, livestock, and their combined presence, affect stand structural complexity in a southern Global Biodiversity Hotspot. From 2011 to 2013, we measured forest structural attributes as well as the presence of anthropogenic disturbances in 505 plots in the Andean zone of the La Araucan o A a Region, Chile. In each plot, understory density, coarse woody debris, number of snags, tree diameter at breast height, and litter depth were measured, along with signs of the presence of anthropogenic disturbances. Ninety-five percent of the plots showed signs of anthropogenic disturbance (N = 475), with the combined presence of fire, logging, and livestock being the most common disturbance (N = 222; 44% of plots). The lowest values for the index were measured in plots combining fire, logging, and livestock. Undisturbed plots and plots with the presence of relatively old fires (> 70 years) showed the highest values for the index of stand structural complexity. Our results suggest that secondary forests <70year post-fire event, with the presence of habitat legacies (e.g. snags and CWD), can reach a structural complexity as high as undisturbed plots. Temperate forests should be managed to retain structural attributes, including understory density (7.2 +/- 2.5# contacts), volume of CWD (22.4 +/- 25.8 m(3)/ha), snag density (94.4 +/- 71.0 stems/ ha), stand basal area (61.2 +/- 31.4 m(2)/ha), and litter depth (7.5 +/- 2.7 cm). Achieving these values will increase forest structural complexity, likely benefiting a range of faunal species in South American temperate forests.",Influence of Anthropogenic Disturbances on Stand Structural Complexity in Andean Temperate Forests: Implications for Managing Key Habitat for Biodiversity,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+471402,"Global climate change is primarily linked to changes in greenhouse gases, but land-cover change (LCC) has increasingly been recognized as another forcing on the regional scale(1,2). The related effects on alpine glaciers are, however, not yet known. Here we present the first quantification of the contribution of LCC-driven atmospheric change to glacier mass loss, illustrated by the well-studied case of Kilimanjaro in tropical Africa(3-5). We employ a novel multi-scale modelling approach(6), which links atmospheric dynamics and local glacier mass balance in a fully physical way and is validated by in situ measurements. Using different model settings, this shows that local LCC since the 1970s has contributed 7 +/- 6% (17 +/- 12%) to mass loss of a southern slope glacier in the dry (wet) season, but this effect could reverse in the other mountain sectors and also decrease glacier mass loss. Thus, for the moment, the hypothesis that local LCC is another forcing of glacier loss on Kilimanjaro(7,8) cannot be corroborated. More generally, our results indicate that the impact of local LCC on mountain glaciers is constrained by regional circulation (moisture trajectories), altitude (distance to forest), and outside the tropics by precipitation mechanisms (frontal systems). We therefore argue that attribution of glacier change and variability to large-scale climate dynamics(3,9,10) is unlikely to be distorted by local LCC.",Limited forcing of glacier loss through land-cover change on Kilimanjaro,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+336509,"The Tibetan Plateau, the low-latitude and high-altitude cold region, has a variety of soils rich in organic carbon (C). Climate change will have large impacts on soil carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux in the region. These impacts will subsequently affect global-scale climate and C cycle links. However, the magnitude of this feedback is still uncertain. Here we use a laboratory incubation experiment to investigate how soil temperature and moisture affected the rate and temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration of three alpine ecosystems (alpine meadow [M], alpine shrubland [SB], alpine swamp [SP]) on the Tibetan Plateau. Soil samples were incubated under three temperature (0 degrees C, 15 degrees C, and 30 degrees C) and two moisture (50% and 100% water-holding capacity) conditions. The response of soil respiration to temperature and moisture varied with ecosystems. Soil respiration in SP was the most temperature sensitive, and higher moisture increased its temperature sensitivity (Q(10)). The respiration and Q(10) depended on total nitrogen in soils. Moreover, high moisture increased the dependence of Q(10) on total nitrogen. Our results suggest that rising temperature in Tibetan Plateau may cause a positive feedback to the soil C cycle, particularly coupled with increasing precipitation and N addition.",Temperature and Moisture Effects on Soil Respiration in Alpine Grasslands,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1905776,"Climate change scenarios indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of droughts in several regions of the world in the 21st century, especially in Southern Europe, highlighting the threat to global health. For the first time, a time-series diagnostic study has been conducted regarding the impact of droughts in Galicia, a region in north-western Spain, on daily natural-cause mortality, daily circulatory-cause mortality, and daily respiratory-cause mortality, from 1983 to 2013. We analysed the drought periods over the area of interest using the daily Standardized Evapotranspiration-Precipitation Index (SPEI) and the daily Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), obtained at various timescales (1, 3, 6, 9 months), to identify and classify the intensity of drought and non-drought periods. Generalized linear models with the Poisson regression link were used to calculate the Relative Risks (RRs) of different causes of mortality, and the percentage of Attributable Risk Mortality (%AR) was calculated based on RRs data. According to our findings, there were statistically significant (p < 0.05) associations between drought periods, measured by both the daily SPEI and SPI, and daily mortality in all provinces of Galicia (except Pontevedra) for different timescales. Furthermore, drought periods had a greater influence on daily mortality in the interior provinces of Galicia than in the coastal regions, with Lugo being the most affected. In short term, the effect of droughts (along with heatwaves) on daily mortality was observed in interior regions and was mainly explained by atmospheric pollution effect throughout 2000 to 2009 period in Ourense, being respiratory causes of mortality the group most strongly associated. The fact that droughts are likely to become increasingly frequent and intense in the context of climate change and the lack of studies that have considered the impact of droughts on specific causes of mortality make this type of analysis necessary. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Effects on daily mortality of droughts in Galicia (NW Spain) from 1983 to 2013,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+98256,"This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge was even more sensitive to aquifer hydraulic conductivity, especially in the lowland regions. These findings have important implications for paleoclimatic studies, because the hydrologic response of a surface-water body will vary across the watershed to a given climate signal. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+434004,"The Danube River Basin-Black Sea area represents a unique natural laboratory for studying the interplay between lithosphere and surface as well as source to sink relationships and their impact on global change. This paper addresses some information on the ""active sink"" of the system; i.e. the Danube deep sea fan and the Black Sea basin. The present study focuses on the distal sedimentary processes and the evolution of sedimentation since the Last Glacial Maximum. This is investigated through recently acquired long piston coring and shallow seismic data recovered at the boundary of influence of the distal part of the Danube turbidite system (to the north-west) and the Turkish margin (to the south). This dataset provides a good record of the recent changes in the sedimentary supply and climato-eustasy in the Black Sea region during the last 25 ka. This study demonstrates that the deep basin deposits bear the record of the Late Quaternary paleoenvironmental changes and that the western Black Sea constitutes an asymmetric subsident basin bordered by a northern passive margin with confined, mid-size, mud-rich turbidite systems mainly controlled by sea-level, and a southern turbidite ramp margin, tectonically active. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Late Quaternary deep-sea sedimentation in the western Black Sea: New insights from recent coring and seismic data in the deep basin,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+451286,"Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate change projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment's role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability.",A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change impact assessments: Sensitivity of river flows in the Eden catchment to precipitation scenarios,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2316099,"Shallow coastal habitats function as nursery, feeding and breeding grounds for many marine and estuarine fishes. Even though fish diversity in Southeast Asia is high, there is a paucity of information with regards to the fish ecology of shallow coastal habitats in Singapore. To investigate the possible function of Changi Point Beach (an unreclaimed shallow coastal habitat) and the diversity of the fish community inhabiting this area, monthly nocturnal and diurnal samplings were performed. Results indicate that, although impacted, Changi Point Beach appears to be a nursery area and supports a large diversity of fish species. This includes several species which are economically important as a food resource. Changi beach is also a popular recreational area, which is frequented by the local citizenry as well as tourists. With increasing coastal habitat degradation due to anthropogenic activities, it is important to conserve these habitats for the benefit of both the immediate fish community as well as for maintaining fish diversity in Singapore.","DIEL VARIATIONS AND DIVERSITY OF FISH COMMUNITIES ALONG THE UNRECLAIMED SHALLOW COASTAL HABITATS OF CHANGI POINT BEACH, SINGAPORE",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+646435,"Clear-cut evidences of global environmental change in Colombia are discussed for diverse hydro-climatic records, and illustrated herein for increasing minimum temperature and decreasing annual maximum river flows records. As a consequence, eight tropical glaciers disappeared from the Colombian Andes during the 20th century, and the remaining six have experienced alarming retreat rates during the last decade. Here we report an updated estimation of retreat rates in the six remaining glacierized mountain ranges of Colombia for the period 1987-2007, using Landsat TM and TM+ imagery. Analyses are performed using detailed pre-processing, processing and post-processing satellite imagery techniques. Alarming retreat rates are confirmed in the studied glaciers, with an overall area shrinkage from 60 km2 in 2002, to 55.4 km2 in 2003, to less than 45 km2 in 2007. Assuming such linear loss rate (∼3 km2 per year), for the near and medium term, the total collapse of the Colombian glaciers can be foreseen by 2022, but diverse physical mechanisms discussed herein would exacerbate the shrinkage processes, thus prompting us to forecast a much earlier deadline by the late 2010-2020 decade, long before the 100 years foreseen by the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. This forecast demands detailed monitoring studies of mass and energy balances. Our updated estimations of Colombia's glacier retreat rates posse serious challenges for highly valuable ecosystem services, including water supply of several large cities and hundreds of rural settlements along the Colombian Andes, but also for cheap and renewable hydropower generation which provides 80% of Colombia's demand. Also, the identified changes threaten the survivability of unique and fragile ecosystems likeparamos&lt;/ i&gt; and cloud forests, in turn contributing to exacerbate social unrest and ongoing environmental problems in the tropical Andes which have been identified as the most criticalhotspotfor biodiversity on Earth. Colombia requires support from the global adaptation fund to develop research, and to design policies, strategies and tools to cope with these urgent social and environmental threats.",Reassessment of Colombia's tropical glaciers retreat rates: Are they bound to disappear during the 2010-2020 decade?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+639180,"Great change, associated with global warming, has occurred at the Hailuogou glacier, Mt. Gongga, China, since the early 20th century. Various data indicate that the glacier has retreated 1 822 m in the past 106 years, with an annual mean retreat of 17.2 m, and the front elevation has risen by 300 m since 1823. Comparison of glacier variations and temperature fluctuations in China and the Northern Hemisphere, over the last 100 years, indicates that glacier retreat stages occurred during the warm phase, and vice versa. Mass balance records during 1959/60-2003/04 have shown that the glacier has suffered a constant mass loss of snow and ice. The accumulated mass balance, -10.83 m water equivalent, indicates an annual mean value of -0.24 m water equivalent. The correlation between the mass balance and temperature is significant, which also indicates that climate warming is the crucial cause of glacier loss. Local hydrological and climatic data demonstrate that runoff from the glacier has been increasing both seasonally and annually. The correlation analysis and trend analysis indicate that ice and snow melted water is the main cause of an increase in the runoff. As the climate hag become warmer, changes in the glacier surface morphology have obviously occurred. These include a decrease in glacier thickness, enlargement of glacial caves, and reduction of the size of clefts on the glacier surface. The ablation period has lengthened and the ablation area has expanded. A variety of factors thus provide evidence that the Hailuogou glacier has suffered a rapid loss of snow and ice as a result of climatic warming.","Changes of the Hailuogou glacier, Mt. Gongga, China, against the background of global warming in the last several decades",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+18841,"Increasing pressure on water resources makes it necessary to understand the reasons for the changes in the run-off characteristic of the Ngerengere River in Tanzania during recent years. Changing land use and changes in climate boundaries are identified as effects. A combination of statistical analysis and the use of the hydrological model SWAT were chosen to handle the problem of poor data quantity and quality with non-overlapping periods. Changes in the discharge regime were identified with the 5th percentile of the flow duration curve as an indicator for high-flow events, with an indicator for low-flow duration and with the base flow index. The analysis showed that climate boundaries and changing land use do not have a uniform effect on discharge in the catchment. Changing land use affects surface run-off and increases floods in the mountainous areas. Changes in climate boundaries increase the duration of low flow and no flow in the Ngerengere catchment. Changes in climate conditions and land use had antipodal effects on parts of the discharge regime. Thus, the observed changes in land use and climate conditions partially compensate for each other.",The effects of climate and changing land use on the discharge regime of a small catchment in Tanzania,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+49264,"Mosquito-borne diseases cause substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide. These impacts are widely predicted to increase as temperatures warm and extreme precipitation events become more frequent, since mosquito biology and disease ecology are strongly linked to environmental conditions. However, direct evidence linking environmental change to changes in mosquito-borne disease is rare, and the ecological mechanisms that may underpin such changes are poorly understood. Environmental drivers, such as temperature, can have non-linear, opposing impacts on the demographic rates of different mosquito life cycle stages. As such, model frameworks that can deal with fluctuations in temperature explicitly are required to predict seasonal mosquito abundance, on which the intensity and persistence of disease transmission under different environmental scenarios depends. We present a novel, temperature-dependent, delay-differential equation model, which incorporates diapause and the differential effects of temperature on the duration and mortality of each life stage and demonstrates the sensitivity of seasonal abundance patterns to inter- and intra-annual changes in temperature. Likely changes in seasonal abundance and exposure to mosquitoes under projected changes in UK temperatures are presented, showing an increase in peak vector abundance with warming that potentially increases the risk of disease outbreaks. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.",Modelling the effect of temperature on the seasonal population dynamics of temperate mosquitoes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+472335,"The Pearl River basin bears the heavy responsibility for the water supply for the neighboring cities such as Macau, Hong Kong and others. Therefore, effective water resource management is crucial for sustainable use of water resource. However, good knowledge of changing properties of streamflow changes is the first step into the effective water resource management. With this in mind, stability and variability of streamflow changes in the Pearl River basin is thoroughly analyzed based on monthly streamflow data covering last half century using Mann-Kendall trend test and scanning t- and F-test techniques. The results indicate: (1) significant increasing monthly streamflow is observed mainly in January-April, June and October-December. Monthly streamflow during May-September is in not significant changes. Besides, stations characterized by significant monthly streamflow changes are located in the middle and the lower Pearl River basin; (2) changing points of monthly streamflow series are detected mainly during mid-1960s, early 1970s, mid-1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s and these periods are roughly in good agreement with those of annual, winter and summer precipitation across the Pearl River basin, implying tremendous influences of precipitation changes on streamflow variations; (3) abrupt behaviors tend to be ambiguous from the upper to the lower Pearl River basin, which should be due to enhancing combined effects of abrupt changes of precipitation. The streamflow comes to be lower stability in recent decades. However, high stability of streamflow changes are observed at hydrological stations in the lower Pearl River basin. The results of this study will be of great scientific and practical merits in terms of effective water resource management in the Pearl River basin under the influences of climate changes and human activities.","Multiscale variability of streamflow changes in the Pearl River basin, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1337325,"A streamflow drought climatology was developed over the Central Andes of Argentina, a semi-arid region highly vulnerable to climatic variations, based on the analysis of daily historical streamflow records. A threshold level approach was applied on a daily basis for three different severity levels in order to depict the main characteristics of droughts - number of drought events, mean duration and mean severity - over the period 1957-2014. Based on three annual indices that summarize the frequency of drought events, their duration and severity, we identified the main regional dry periods and the main modes of variability through an empirical decomposition. These modes are linked to La Nina conditions on inter-annual time scales and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation for the decadal variations, showing the influence of the tropical Pacific Ocean in the development of streamflow drought conditions and its relevance for potential predictability of hydroclimatic variations over the region.",Threshold level approach for streamflow drought analysis in the Central Andes of Argentina: a climatological assessment,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+476060,"The magnitude and even direction of recent Antarctic climate change is still debated because the paucity of long and complete instrumental data records. While along Antarctic Peninsula a strong warming coupled with large retreat of glaciers occurred, in continental Antarctica a cooling was recently detected. Here, the first existing permafrost data set longer than 10 years recorded in continental Antarctica is presented. Since 1997 summer ground surface temperature showed a strong warming trend (0.31A degrees C per year) although the air temperature was almost stable. The summer ground surface temperature increase seemed to be influenced mainly by the increase of the total summer radiation as confirmed also by the increase of the summer thawing degree days. In the same period the active layer exhibited a thickening trend (1 cm per year) comparable with the thickening rates observed in several Arctic locations where air warming occurred. At all the investigated depths permafrost exhibited an increase of mean annual temperature of approximately 0.1A degrees C per year. The dichotomy between active layer thickness and air temperature trends can produce large unexepected and unmodelled impacts on ecosystems and CO2 balance.",A permafrost warming in a cooling Antarctica?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+775945,"This research examines the impact of GDP per capita (gross domestic product), energy intensity (EI), carbon intensity (CI), and total population on carbon dioxide emissions in China's transport industry using quantile analysis from 1980 to 2010. Obviously the study on carbon dioxide has garnered attention globally due to climate change and its relation to green house gas emissions and several other factors, and considering the alarming pace of industrialization and urbanization in China which has led to rapid economic growth and high energy consumption. Also, the percentage of oil consumption to total oil demand in the transport industry of China was 38.2% for the year 2010 which has significantly raised the emission level of carbon dioxide. In this study, having confirmed stationarity and that there exist a long term relationship among our variables (carbon emission, gross domestic product, energy intensity, carbon intensity, and urbanization), we checked which variable(s) has a greater impact on carbon emission on different quantiles. Our quantile estimates showed how the effects of the independent variables (gross domestic product, energy intensity, carbon intensity, and urbanization) varies across the levels of the dependent variable (carbon emission), the results showed that these effect are not constant across the spectrum of the dependent variable. Unlike the gross domestic product, energy intensity, carbon intensity, and urbanization had an inconsistent effects across the spectrum of carbon emissions. All variables were statistically significant in all the spectrum of carbon emissions except for urbanization, which was only significant at the tail ends of the distribution (urbanization was only significant at 10th percentile and 90th percentile respectively). The results therefore shows clearly that GDP, energy intensity, carbon intensity has a greater impact on carbon emission than urbanization, this makes sense to an extent in real life comparing the fact that China is still in the process of urbanization, so not all cities are urban for now. However, this shows that where urbanization exist, it can influence carbon emissions alongside other factors immensely. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Influencing factors on carbon emissions in China transport industry. A new evidence from quantile regression analysis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+289089,"A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27% of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18% in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts.",Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2014,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+115207,"Climate change, especially the warming trend experienced in recent years by several countries, could affect agricultural productivity. As a consequence the income of rural populations will change, and with it the incentives for people to remain in rural areas. Using data from 115 countries between 1960 and 2000, we analyze the effect of differential warming trends across countries on the probability of either migrating out of the country or from rural to urban areas. We find that higher temperatures in middle-income economies increased migration rates to urban areas and to other countries. In poor countries, higher temperatures reduced the probability of migration to cities and to other countries, consistently with the presence of severe liquidity constraints. In middle-income countries, migration represents an important margin of adjustment to global warming, potentially contributing to structural change and even increasing income per worker. Such a mechanism, however, does not seem to work in poor economies. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",The migration response to increasing temperatures,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+777826,"Climate change has had well-documented impacts on the distribution and phenology of species across many taxa, but impacts on species' abundance, which relates closely to extinction risk and ecosystem function, have not been assessed across taxa. In the most comprehensive multi-taxa comparison to date, we modelled variation in national population indices of 501 mammal, bird, aphid, butterfly and moth species as a function of annual variation in weather variables, which through time allowed us to identify a component of species' population growth that can be associated with post-1970s climate trends. We found evidence that these climate trends have significantly affected population trends of 15.8% of species, including eight with extreme (> 30% decline per decade) negative trends consistent with detrimental impacts of climate change. The modelled effect of climate change could explain 48% of the significant across-species population decline in moths and 63% of the population increase in winged aphids. The other taxa did not have significant across-species population trends or consistent climate change responses. Population declines in species of conservation concern were linked to both climatic and non-climatic factors respectively accounting for 42 and 58% of the decline. Evident differential impacts of climate change between trophic levels may signal the potential for future ecosystem disruption. Climate change has therefore already driven large-scale population changes of some species, had significant impacts on the overall abundance of some key invertebrate groups and may already have altered biological communities and ecosystems in Great Britain.",Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+158443,"The timing of phenological events exerts a strong control over ecosystem function and leads to multiple feedbacks to the climate system(1). Phenology is inherently sensitive to temperature (although the exact sensitivity is disputed(2)) and recent warming is reported to have led to earlier spring, later autumn(3,4) and increased vegetation activity(5,6). Such greening could be expected to enhance ecosystem carbon uptake(7,8), although reports also suggest decreased uptake for boreal forests(4,9). Here we assess changes in phenology of temperate forests over the eastern US during the past two decades, and quantify the resulting changes in forest carbon storage. We combine long-term ground observations of phenology, satellite indices, and ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide flux measurements, along with 18 terrestrial biosphere models. We observe a strong trend of earlier spring and later autumn. In contrast to previous suggestions(4,9) we show that carbon uptake through photosynthesis increased considerably more than carbon release through respiration for both an earlier spring and later autumn. The terrestrial biosphere models tested misrepresent the temperature sensitivity of phenology, and thus the effect on carbon uptake. Our analysis of the temperature-phenology-carbon coupling suggests a current and possible future enhancement of forest carbon uptake due to changes in phenology. This constitutes a negative feedback to climate change, and is serving to slow the rate of warming.",Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+653695,"Changes in water temperature and stratification dynamics can have a significant effect on hydrodynamics and water quality in reservoirs. Therefore, to assess future climate impacts, projections of three regional climate models for Europe, under the IPCC A1B emission scenario (2081-2100), were used with the CE-QUAL-W2 water quality model to evaluate changes in the thermal regime of 24 Portuguese reservoirs, representing different geographic regions, morphologies, volumes and hydrological regimes. Simulation results were compared with reference simulations for the period 1989-2008 and changes in water temperature and thermal stratification characteristics were evaluated. Future inflow scenarios were estimated from precipitation-runoff non-linear correlations and outflows were estimated considering present water uses, including hydropower, water supply and irrigation. Results suggest a significant increment in the mean water temperature of the reservoirs for the entire water volume and at water surface of 2.3 and 2.5 degrees C, respectively, associated with a runoff reduction of approximately 23%. Overall, variations in annual stratification patterns are characterized by changes in the mean annual length of stratification anomaly that ranged from -21 to +39 days. Results also show the influence of depth and volume over the reservoir's temperature anomaly, highlighting the importance of future water uses and operation rule curves optimization for reservoirs.",Thermal stratification of Portuguese reservoirs: potential impact of extreme climate scenarios,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+613062,"Understanding the occurrence and variability of drought events in historic and projected future climate is essential to managing natural resources and setting policy. The Midwest region is a key contributor in corn and soybean production, and the occurrence of droughts may affect both quantity and quality of these crops. Soil moisture observations play an essential role in understanding the severity and persistence of drought. Considering the scarcity of the long-term soil moisture datasets, soil moisture observations in Illinois have been one of the best datasets for studies of soil moisture. In the present study, the authors use the existing observational dataset and then reconstruct long-term historic time series (1916-2007) of soil moisture data using a land surface model to study the effects of historic climate variability and projected future climate change on regional-scale (Illinois and Indiana) drought. The objectives of this study are to (i) estimate changes and trends associated with climate variables in historic climate variability (1916-2007) and in projected future climate change (2009-99) and (ii) identify regional-scale droughts and associated severity, areal extent, and temporal extent under historic and projected future climate using reconstructed soil moisture data and gridded climatology for the period 1916-2007 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The authors reconstructed the soil moisture for a long-term (1916-2007) historic time series using the VIC model, which was calibrated for monthly streamflow and soil moisture at eight U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauge stations and Illinois Climate Network's (ICN) soil moisture stations, respectively, and then it was evaluated for soil moisture, persistence of soil moisture, and soil temperature and heat fluxes. After calibration and evaluation, the VIC model was implemented for historic (1916-2007) and projected future climate (2009-99) periods across the study domain. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used to estimate trends using the gridded climatology of precipitation and air temperature variables. Trends were also estimated for annual anomalies of soil moisture variables, snow water equivalent, and total runoff using a long-term time series of the historic period. Results indicate that precipitation, minimum air temperature, total column soil moisture, and runoff have experienced upward trends, whereas maximum air temperature, frozen soil moisture, and snow water equivalent experienced downward trends. Furthermore, the decreasing trends were significant for the frozen soil moisture in the study domain. The results demonstrate that retrospective drought periods and their severity were reconstructed using model-simulated data. Results also indicate that the study region is experiencing reduced extreme and exceptional droughts with lesser areal extent in recent decades.",Assessment of Drought due to Historic Climate Variability and Projected Future Climate Change in the Midwestern United States,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2320298,"Soils host diverse communities that support and regulate ecosystem functions, thereby affecting plant production and resource use efficiencies. There is increasing evidence that agricultural intensification affects soil biodiversity (SBD) and such changes may impact on current and future food security. Here, we provide an overview of the state-of-the-art on the relations between agricultural management, SBD and food production. The potential of applying such knowledge to improve food security and nutrition is discussed. Biotechnological methods to describe impacts of agricultural practices on taxonomic and functional diversity of soil organisms are advancing rapidly. At the same time new understanding of soil-plant interactions has provided novel insights into the mechanisms by which soil organisms and plants co-regulate plant growth and defences, or affect food nutritional quality and safety. Yet, empirical studies on SBD - plant productivity relations often lead to results and applications that are crop and context specific. Translating knowledge on SBD into universally applicable soil management recommendations to enhance food production, and ultimately food security, remains challenging. Instead, we propose a holistic approach to SBD management that strengthens multiple ecosystem functions and provides ecological insurance.",Role and management of soil biodiversity for food security and nutrition; where do we stand?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+365418,"Arctic and Boreal terrestrial ecosystems are important components of the climate system because they contain vast amounts of soil carbon (C). Evidence suggests that deciduous shrubs are increasing in abundance, but the implications for ecosystem C budgets remain uncertain. Using midsummer CO2 flux data from 21 sites spanning 16 degrees of latitude in the Arctic and Boreal biomes, we show that air temperature explains c. one-half of the variation in ecosystem respiration (ER) and that ER drives the pattern in net ecosystem CO2 exchange across ecosystems. Woody sites were slightly stronger C sinks compared with herbaceous communities. However, woody sites with warm soils similar to 10 similar to C) were net sources of CO2, whereas woody sites with cold soils similar to 10 similar to C) were strong sinks. Our results indicate that transition to a shrub-dominated Arctic will increase the rate of C cycling, and may lead to net C loss if soil temperatures rise.",Interactions among shrub cover and the soil microclimate may determine future Arctic carbon budgets,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+34098,"Recent studies documenting shifts in spatial distribution of many organisms in response to a warming climate highlight the need to understand the mechanisms underlying species distribution at large spatial scales. Here we present one noteworthy example of remote oceanographic processes governing the spatial distribution of adult silver hake, Merluccius bilinearis, a commercially important fish in the Northeast US shelf region. Changes in spatial distribution of silver hake over the last 40 years are highly correlated with the position of the Gulf Stream. These changes in distribution are in direct response to local changes in bottom temperature on the continental shelf that are responding to the same large scale circulation change affecting the Gulf Stream path, namely changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). If the AMOC weakens, as is suggested by global climate models, silver hake distribution will remain in a poleward position, the extent to which could be forecast at both decadal and multidecadal scales.",Silver hake tracks changes in Northwest Atlantic circulation,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1292643,"The combined impacts of projected/simulated climate change and variability on temperature extremes over a complex topographical terrain along the eastern Mediterranean are assessed in this study. High-resolution dynamical temperature downscaling is conducted for the past (2008) and the near future (until 2050) during eight extreme hot and dry years under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for the downscaling process with two nested resolutions of 9 and 3km, forced by the global High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) at a resolution of 25km. Climate indices resultant from daily simulated temperature illustrate considerable changes in daily maximum summer and minimum winter temperature extremes during the future simulated years in comparison with the historic 2008 selected as reference and control period. While average yearly temperatures increase in both scenarios and most regions as expected, the seasonal variability is forecasted to intensify even more significantly resulting in colder winter and warmer summer conditions. Moreover, the interseasonal variability was most pronounced in the years with the highest averaged temperatures. A notable increase in the annual incidence of hot nights and heat wave events relative to 2008 conditions is also expected. The orographic complexity resulted in significant regional differences, with the most affected regions experiencing more than a doubling of extreme indices during the hottest and driest years of near-future decades. This strong spatial variability highlights the need for high-resolution downscaling.",Seasonal and Regional Patterns of Future Temperature Extremes: High-Resolution Dynamic Downscaling Over a Complex Terrain,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+643768,"Objectives: To identify and characterize the determinants of food insecurity among Inuit women. Methods: A community-based study in Igloolik, Nunavut, using semi-structured interviews (n=36) and focus groups (n=5) with Inuit women, and key informants interviews with health professionals (n=13). Results: There is a high prevalence of food insecurity among Inuit females in Igloolik, with women in the study reporting skipping meals and reducing food intake on a regular basis. Food insecurity is largely transitory in nature and influenced by food affordability and budgeting; food knowledge; education and preferences; food quality and availability; absence of a full-time hunter in the household; cost of harvesting; poverty; and addiction. These determinants are operating in the context of changing livelihoods and climate-related stresses. Conclusion: Inuit women's food insecurity in Igloolik is the outcome of multiple determinants operating at different spatial-temporal scales. Climate change and external socio-economic stresses are exacerbating difficulties in obtaining sufficient food. Coping strategies currently utilized to manage food insecurity are largely reactive and short-term in nature, and could increase food system vulnerability to future stresses. Intervention by local, territorial and federal governments is required to implement, coordinate and monitor strategies to enhance women's food security, strengthen the food system, and reduce vulnerability to future stressors.",Food Insecurity among Inuit Women Exacerbated by Socio-economic Stresses and Climate Change,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+600691,"Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming(1-3). Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming(4,5). The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change(6). Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation(7) that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles(8) that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years(9,10).",Little change in global drought over the past 60 years,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3952889,"Photo‐oxidative degradation reactions are mainly responsible for reduced lifetime in polymers. These reactions are responsible for the decay in useful physical and chemical properties of polymers. In addition to high ultraviolet radiation doses, hostile environments have increased temperature, high humidity, and air‐borne sand. In this work white pigmented polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipe sections were exposed to natural weather at seven different locations. Characterization studies were made on exposed samples using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopic, gel permeation chromatographic (GPC), and scanning electron microscopic (SEM) studies. Performance characteristics were determined by testing changes in the mechanical properties. Functional groups introduced during the processing of PVC and irregularities in the polymer chain can be held responsible for the initiation and propagation of photo‐oxidative degradation reactions catalyzed by high surface temperature and increased humidity. Copyright © 1992 Society of Plastics Engineers",Polymer lifetime studies in hostile environments,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+206003,"Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) is a greenhouse gas which is also responsible for ozone depletion, that mainly originates from soils and agricultural activities. We investigated the ability of inoculants of Bradyrhizobium japonicum carrying the nosZ gene to mitigate soil N(2)O emissions. The consumption of N(2)O by strains of Bradyrhizobium japonicum (USDA110 and MSDJ G49) was investigated both on inoculated soybean plants cultivated in soil pots during a greenhouse experiment and on detached nodules submitted to gradients of oxygen and N(2)O concentrations in laboratory conditions. During the greenhouse experiment, we switched from a system acting as an N(2)O source (soil + soybean inoculated with a nosZ gene depleted strain) to a system acting as an N(2)O sink (soil + soybean inoculated with strains carrying the nosZ gene). Nodules of Bradyrhizobium japonicum USDA110 and MSDJ G49 were both able to reduce N(2)O under aerobic conditions at rates increasing with N(2)O concentrations. Calculations using the obtained quantitative results clearly suggest an environmental benefit of this process on the field scale. This study demonstrates that the inoculation of rhizobia strains on leguminous crops is a promising area for mitigating N(2)O emission by cultivated soils and that further researches are required to best evaluate quantitative benefits.",Inoculants of leguminous crops for mitigating soil emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3888147,"Emperature and load are the major factors of road surface deformation. This paper studies how the temperature causes the road surface deformation and what the deformation trend is. A simplified model of the pavement structure and double round load loading mode were adopted respectively to analyze the stress and strain changes of road surface result of the load and the coupling effect of temperature and load. The major conclusions drew on this study are: stiffness modulus of asphalt mixture attenuates rapidly as the temperature increases, and thereby results in a significant shear deformation of asphalt pavement. At the same temperature, compressive stress decreases with the increasing of load and the deepening of the pavement structure. The influence of coupling effect of temperature and load is more significant than a single temperature or load factor. Under different coupling effect of temperature and load circumstances, the pavement structure influenced mostly by the shear stress is located 3-9cm underneath the surface. © (2014) Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland.",Stress and strain analysis of asphalt pavement impacted by temperature and load,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2357809,"Determining the factors that regulate recruitment of cunner Tautogolabrus adspersus, a temperate reef fish, can help assess the effect of an anthropogenic disturbance on population abundance. The relative abundance of cunner recruits was tracked over 1 reproductive season via visual counts on line transects across similar habitats at 4 sites across 3 boulder reefs in the vicinity of the Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station (PNPS) in Plymouth, Massachusetts, USA. Habitat characteristics including macroalgae structure, canopy height, rugosity (a measure of structure complexity), temperature, and visibility were measured at each site to assess the influence of these factors on recruit abundance. We assumed that immigration and emigration were not responsible for recruit abundance patterns through time due to the sedentary life history of cunner recruits, We observed differences in recruit abundance over the settlement period among reefs which were likely the result of differences in settlement. However recruitment at the end of the post-settlement period was similar across reefs. Recruit mortality rates among reefs differed in the post-settlement period, with the reef that had the highest density also having the highest mortality rate. Post-settlement mortality rates provided evidence for density-dependent mortality, since habitat and abiotic factors failed to explain the difference in mortality among reefs. Consequently, because of the existence of density-dependent processes in the post-settlement stages, entrainment mortality of the pre-settlement egg and larval stages by the PNPS will have a diminished effect on the local cunner population, An additional assessment of within-reef variability in recruitment also suggests recruitment success is sensitive to small changes in habitat structure which can occur over the recruitment season.","Evidence for density-dependent mortality in recruitment of a temperate reef fish, cunner Tautogolabrus adspersus, among similar reefs in the vicinity of an anthropogenic disturbance",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+566424,"The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) and adjacent Scotia Sea support abundant wildlife populations, many of which were nearly extirpated by humans. This region is also among the fastest-warming areas on the planet, with 5-6 degrees C increases in mean winter air temperatures and associated decreases in winter sea-ice cover. These biological and physical perturbations have affected the ecosystem profoundly. One hypothesis guiding ecological interpretations of changes in top predator populations in this region, the ""sea-ice hypothesis,"" proposes that reductions in winter sea ice have led directly to declines in ""ice-loving"" species by decreasing their winter habitat, while populations of ""ice-avoiding"" species have increased. However, 30 y of field studies and recent surveys of penguins throughout the WAP and Scotia Sea demonstrate this mechanism is not controlling penguin populations; populations of both ice-loving Adelie and ice-avoiding chinstrap penguins have declined significantly. We argue in favor of an alternative, more robust hypothesis that attributes both increases and decreases in penguin populations to changes in the abundance of their main prey, Antarctic krill. Unlike many other predators in this region, Adelie and chinstrap penguins were never directly harvested by man; thus, their population trajectories track the impacts of biological and environmental changes in this ecosystem. Linking trends in penguin abundance with trends in krill biomass explains why populations of Adelie and chinstrap penguins increased after competitors (fur seals, baleen whales, and some fishes) were nearly extirpated in the 19th to mid-20th centuries and currently are decreasing in response to climate change.",Variability in krill biomass links harvesting and climate warming to penguin population changes in Antarctica,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1838844,"Currently, human life and ecosystems are being threatened by rising temperatures, rising sea levels, seasonal variations, etc. due to global warming and abnormal weather phenomena. Accordingly, studies have been actively performed on plant factories and large greenhouses to enable us to grow crops without coming into contact with global weathers and climates. The recent improvement of facility cultivation technologies has enabled us to adjust not only temperature, humidity, and light environments but also CO2 concentration (Sun et al., 2001). Of those factors, CO2 is important in the growth of plants (Nederhoff et al., 1994). It appears that improving CO2 literacy will be possible by determining the limiting factors in photosynthesis under constant environmental conditions and improving these factors through biotechnology approaches. This study attempts to measure CO2 consumption of lettuce according to the leaf area under CO2 consumption of lettuce and thereby to investigate the relationship between leaf area and CO2 consumption for the purpose of estimating CO2 consumption per leaf area of lettuce cultivated from plant factories or large greenhouses. Additionally, based on the results from this study, we will measure the amount of CO2 consumption in plant factories and large green houses, to estimate the vegetation areas of plants. For the configuration of experimental apparatuses, a dualfully enclosed chamber (1,000 x 1,000 x 1,550 mm) was manufactured to measure CO2 concentration. As an experimental tool, a planimeter was used to measure the leaf area of lettuce. In our experiments, CO2 consumption of lettuce according to leaf area under artificial light sources was measured and thereby we tried to identify the relationship between leaf area and CO2 consumption. After the experiment, the leaf area of lettuce was measured, the relationship between the leaf area and CO2 consumption was identified. It was found that CO2 consumption according to leaf area and unit leaf area differs.",Estimate of the LAI to Calculate the CO2 Consumption of Lettuce Leaf,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+274549,"The future design of urban settlements and infrastructure in response to climate change will be critical in the future. Urban planning for human settlements will require both an intergovernmental and multi-disciplinary approach integrating science and urban planning. The paper focuses on coastal urbanisation and the planning for climate change. The Australian coastal zone is home to over 85% of the Australian population with coastal townships expanding rapidly. The International Panel on Climate Change predicts that the Australian coast will experience increasing storm surge and rising sea levels. A set of principles is proposed that should underpin an intergovernmental agreement on coastal planning and climate change. The Agreement would include actions such as regional planning, policy integration, financial incentives and innovative regulatory mechanisms that use both mitigation and adaptation in complimentary and reinforcing ways. Selected case studies including peri-urban and sea change locations are used to examine the possibilities and obstacles for current urban planning and institutional arrangements to incorporate such mitigation and adaptation measures for climate change. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Principles for an intergovernmental agreement for coastal planning and climate change in Australia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+321653,"Surface air temperatures from a 1000-yr integration of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model with constant forcing are analyzed by using a method that decomposes temperature variations into a component associated with a characteristic spatial structure and a residual. The structure function obtained from the coupled model output is almost identical to the so-called cold ocean-warm land (COWL) pattern based on observations, in which above-average spatial mean temperature is associated with anomalously cold oceans and anomalously warm land. This pattern features maxima over the high-latitude interiors of Eurasia and North America. The temperature fluctuations at the two continental centers exhibit almost no temporal correlation with each other. The temperature variations at the individual centers are related to teleconnection patterns in sea level pressure and 500-mb height that are similar to those identified in previous observational and modeling studies. As in observations, variations in the polarity and amplitude of this structure function are an important source of spatially averaged surface air temperature variability. Results from parallel integrations of models with more simplified treatments of the ocean confirm that the contrast in thermal inertia between land and ocean is the primary factor for the existence of the COWL pattern, whereas dynamical air-sea interactions do not play a significant role. The internally generated variability in structure function amplitude in the coupled model integration is used to assess the importance of the upward trend in the amplitude of the observed structure function over the last 25 yr. This trend, which has contributed to the accelerated warming of Northern Hemisphere temperature over recent decades, is unusually large compared with the trends generated internally by the coupled model. If the coupled model adequately estimates the internal variability of the real climate system, this would imply that the recent upturn in the observed structure function may not be purely a manifestation of unforced variability. A similar monotonic trend occurs when the same methodology is applied to a model integration with time-varying radiative forcing based on past and future CO, and sulfate aerosol increases. This finding illustrates that this decomposition methodology yields ambiguous results when two distinct spatial patterns, the ""natural"" COWL pattern (i.e., that associated with internally generated variability) and the anthropogenic fingerprint, are present in the simulated climate record.",The cold ocean warm land pattern: Model simulation and relevance to climate change detection,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+711609,"The reef islands formed on coral atolls are generally small, low, and flat, with elevations of only a few meters. These islands are thus highly vulnerable to elevated sea levels caused by extreme events and global warming. Such vulnerability was recently evidenced at Fongafale Islet, the capital of Tuvalu, when it flooded during accelerated spring high tides possibly related to sea level rise caused by global warming. Many factors, not only environmental but also economic and social, determine the vulnerability of an island to sea level rise. In this study, we used data spanning 108 yrs to reconstruct changes in topography, land use/cover, population, and the distribution of buildings at Fongafale Islet. The results indicate that the vulnerability of Fongafale Islet relates to its original landform characteristics: the central part of the island was formerly dominated by swampland that flooded at high tides. Fongafale Islet experienced greater population in-migration and centralization beginning in the 1970s following the independence of Tuvalu and Kiribati. Migrants were also responding to declines in overseas mining operations and limited options for paid employment. As the population increased, construction took place in vulnerable swampland areas. Our results clearly demonstrate that examinations of global environmental issues should focus on characteristics specific to the region of interest. These characteristics should be specified using historical reconstruction to understand and address the vulnerability of an area to global environmental changes. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.","Atoll island vulnerability to flooding and inundation revealed by historical reconstruction: Fongafale Islet, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3322946,"Study region: Madeira Island, Portugal (a small island of the North Atlantic Ocean). Study focus: Droughts from January 1937 to December 2016, were studied using monthly rainfall at 41 rain gauges covering most of the island. The gaps of the original rainfall data were filled by Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE). The drought conditions were assessed by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), specifically the SPI6. To study the drought variability, some clustering techniques and principal components analysis (PCA) were applied to the SPI field. New hydrological insights for the region: Three homogeneous regions (northern slope, southern slope, and central region), each of them with different temporal climatic variability may be identified. Furthermore, for each region, the droughts were characterized in terms of magnitude and duration, and based on a kernel occurrence rate estimator (KORE) as well as on frequency of the drought periods. Finally, two climatic drivers, namely the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were teleconnected to the drought variability at the identified homogeneous regions for the period under study. It was not possible to establish a clear relationship between ENSO/NAO and drought occurrence. Nevertheless, the results showed that the spatio-temporal drought variability in Madeira Island has been subjected to noticeable changes in recent years (2001-2016) with a considerable higher number of periods under drought conditions than in the past.",Spatio-temporal variability of droughts over past 80 years in Madeira Island,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+760720,"Climate change has been identified as one of the biggest current drivers of environmental change. Climate model projections for the Baltic Sea forecast increased frequency and duration of extreme temperatures, together with declines in salinity, which are expected to have impacts on the biota. In this experimental study, the interacting effects of low salinity and short-term (8 days) extreme seawater temperatures, followed by an 11-day recovery period, on the foundational macroalga, Fucus vesiculosus, were investigated. To account for potential variation in the responses at local scale, individuals originating from two different local populations, a warm and a cold site were included. In experiments manipulating temperature (20 degrees C to 28 degrees C) and salinity (4 or 6), it was found that even an 8 day exposure to 26 degrees C or higher was detrimental to F. vesiculosus, causing extensive tissue necrosis. Tissue necrosis was enhanced by low salinity. Photosynthesis, measured as the steady-state electron transport rate (ETR) and maximum ETR, declined at 26 degrees C, and this effect was also enhanced by low salinity. Temperatures above 26 degrees C caused declines in light-limited photosynthetic efficiency (alpha), indicating direct physiological damage to PS II reaction centers. After 11 days of recovery, some photosynthetic parameters recovered in the 26 degrees C, but not in the 28 degrees C treatment. It is concluded that Baltic F. vesiculosus populations may be severely affected even by short-term (8 days) exposure to high seawater temperatures when combined with the synergistic effects of low salinity predicted for the future Baltic Sea.",Synergistic effects of extreme temperature and low salinity on foundational macroalga Fucus vesiculosus in the northern Baltic Sea,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2272000,"This paper focuses on and analyses the potential hydrological impacts of climate change on the hydrologic regime of the Kelani River basin, Sri Lanka. In this research, future basin-wide hydrology is simulated by using downscaled temperature and precipitation outputs from the Canadian Earth System Model, version 2 (CanESM2), and the Hydrologic Engineering Centre's Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS). The research further evaluates the long-term behavior and trends of climate extremes based on observed historical temperature and precipitation data. The findings suggest that temperature and precipitation extremes are on the rise while the annual average precipitation in the basin is declining. It is also predicted with the application of statistical downscaling that temperature may rise annually for representative concentration pathways of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. A detailed modeling approach is applied to the Hanwella sub-watershed (1799.67km(2)) of the Kelani River basin to study subsequent water resource management options required to ensure the sustainable development alternatives with varying streamflow in the Kelani River basin under the effects of future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) rainfall and temperature as impending climate change becomes manifested. This paper reviews the current state of the catchment as well as the suitability of applying GCMs rather than RCMs to Sri Lanka to assess this river basin, according to monthly, seasonal, and annual variations of the climatology. Further, a quantitative analysis of the change of amount of surface water in the selected river basin with respect to the expected variations in precipitation and temperature is also carried out. The findings of this research and overall outcome will be useful in identifying possible climate change impact on paddy and crop production, ensuing sustainable water management scenarios, best management options, and mitigation measures in land use, carbon emission management, etc., in a more meaningful manner in the future. This study will set the baseline for commencing and continuing quantitative studies incorporating the behavior of the basin-wide climatology and streamflow variability with the use of GCMs to achieve sustainable development goals.","Long-term precipitation trends and climate extremes in the Kelani River basin, Sri Lanka, and their impact on streamflow variability under climate change",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3277497,"Climate change in the Arctic is two to three times faster than anywhere else in the world. It is therefore crucial to understand the effects of weather on keystone arctic species, particularly those such as caribou (Rangifer tarandus) that sustain northern communities. Bridging long-term scientific and indigenous knowledge offers a promising path to achieve this goal, as both types of knowledge can complement one another. We assessed the influence of environmental variables on the spring and fall body condition of caribou from the Porcupine Caribou Herd. This herd ranges in the Yukon and Northwest Territories (Canada) and Alaska (USA), and is the only large North American herd that has not declined since the 2000s. Using observations recorded through an indigenous community-based monitoring programme between 2000 and 2010, we analysed temporal trends in caribou condition and quantified the effects of weather and critical weather-dependent variables (insect harassment and vegetation growth), on spring (n = 617 individuals) and fall (n = 711) caribou condition. Both spring and fall body condition improved from 2000 to 2010, despite a continuous population increase of ca. 3.6% per year. Spring and fall caribou condition were influenced by weather on the winter and spring ranges, particularly snow conditions and spring temperatures. Both snow conditions and spring temperatures improved during our study period, likely contributing to the observed caribou population increase. Insect harassment during the previous summer and the frequency of icing events also influenced caribou condition. Synthesis and applications. Our study shows how untangling the relative influences of seasonal weather variables allows a much better understanding of variation in seasonal body condition of caribou. It indicates that a large migratory caribou population can grow and improve condition in a global context of caribou decline and climate warming, thereby warning against generalizations about the influence of climate on all caribou populations. Finally, it testifies how data from indigenous community-based monitoring can remarkably improve ecological understanding of wildlife sustaining human communities. Where possible, we recommend management practices that respectfully engage with indigenous community-based monitoring, as this can enhance knowledge and relationships with communities, both prerequisites of successful resource management.",Merging indigenous and scientific knowledge links climate with the growth of a large migratory caribou population,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+465337,"The Tibetan Plateau covers an area of about one fourth of Europe, has an average elevation over 4000 m above sea level, and is the water sources for about 40% of world's population. In order to foresee future changes in water quality, it is important to understand what pressures are governing the spatial variation in water chemistry. In this paper the chemistry including major ions and trace elements in the headwaters of four major Asian rivers (i.e. the Salween, Mekong, Yangtze River and Yarlung Tsangpo) in the Tibetan Plateau was studied. The results showed that the content of dissolved salts in these Tibetan rivers was relatively high compared to waters from other parts of the world. The chemical composition of the four rivers were rather similar, with Ca(2+) and HCO(3)(-) being the dominating ions. The exception was the Yangtze River on the Plateau, which was enriched in Na(+), Cl(-), SO(4)(2-) and Li due to silicate weathering followed by strong evaporation caused by a negative water balance, dissolution of evaporites in the catchment and some drainage from saline lakes. The concentrations of heavy metals (Cu, Co, Cr. Ni, Cd, Pb, and Hg) and As, NH(4)(+) were generally low in all the rivers. Anthropogenic impacts on the quality of the rivers were identified at a few locations in the Mekong River and Yarlung Tsangpo basins. Generally, the main spatial variation in chemical compositions of these under studied rivers was found to be governed mainly by difference in geological variation and regional climatic-environment. Climate change is, therefore, one of main determining factors on the water chemical characteristics of these headwaters of Asian major rivers in the Tibetan Plateau. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Water quality in the Tibetan Plateau: Major ions and trace elements in the headwaters of four major Asian rivers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2522481,"Cotton is one of the principal commercial fibercrop. India is highest in terms of agricultural land involved in cotton production but second highest in production. Decadal yield data reveals that its productivity is 243 kg/ha lesser than the global average. Weather aberrations is one of the paramount reasons for the productivity loss. The present study aims at estimating the implications of increasing temperature and CO2 concentrations on cotton yield using a crop model DSSAT. Three different Bt-cotton varieties Pancham-541, RCH-791 and SP-7007 are considered for the study with three sowing dates 10th May, 21st May and 6th June. For Pancham-541 variety, rise in 1 degrees C of temperature with 50 ppm CO2 is beneficial, but further rise is harmful. Whereas for RCH-791 and SP-7007, productivity decreases gradually with increasing temperature and CO2. Generally, yield decreases with increase in temperature (by 1 degrees C), but no significant effect observed with increasing CO2 (50 ppm) cumulatively. The adverse effects of rising temperature is moderated due to increase of CO2 with the increase in photosynthesis when considered together. The leaf area index as well as evapotranspiration rate increase with increasing temperature and CO2 for all varieties in all sowing dates. Whereas, the harvest index and maturity dates decrease in general. Therefore, increasing temperature at the present rate will be harmful for the productivity of cotton with the changing climate. Although this effect is abated with simultaneously rising CO2 but yet the adversity due to global rise in temperature is partially mitigated.",Model-based Approach to Study the Response of Bt-cotton Towards Elevated Temperature and Carbon Dioxide in the Semi-arid Region of Hisar,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1284550,"The long-term history of fire regimes in the Mediterranean Andes of Chile is almost unknown. Subalpine woodlands of Austrocedrus chilensis include long-lived trees resilient to low-intensity fires, which can provide valuable tree-ring-based information about fire history. In this work, we performed an annually resolved multicentury reconstruction of past fires from fire-scar records identified in relict Austrocedrus wood found on steep highly-eroded and rocky slopes with coarser fuel structure in the upper Cachapoal Valley, central Andes of Chile. We compared this fire record with historical land-use changes and extensive reconstructions of regional precipitation and temperature, as well as large-scale climatic patterns. The highest fire frequencies were recorded in the Spanish settlement period (1541-1750), when land-clearing activities, cattle ranching, agriculture, and mining practices became widespread after the Spanish conquest. At an interannual time scale, fire occurrence and precipitation were unconnected during the Spanish settlement. By contrast, in the indigenous period (1200-1540), under the influence of the aboriginal Chiquillanes people, fires occurred in wet years with high vegetation productivity. In the livestock grazing period (1751-1950), when large cattle ranches were established, fires occurred in dry years after a wet year. Fires in this period were likely ignited under conditions of high fuel flammability to improve plant production and promote intensive livestock grazing. At a multidecadal time scale, fires were more frequent in cold periods throughout the whole record. These findings suggest that herbaceous fuel accumulation and flammability, modulated by climate variation and human land uses, were the main factors promoting fires spread in this Mediterranean subalpine area. Our research emphasizes the importance of relict Austrocedrus wood for fire history reconstruction and expands knowledge about fire regime shifts over the past eight centuries in southern South America.","Coupled human-climate signals on the fire history of upper Cachapoal Valley, Mediterranean Andes of Chile, since 1201 CE",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+452662,"This study systematically analyzes the complete IPCC AR4 (CMIP3) ensemble of GCM simulations with respect to changes in extreme event characteristics at the end of the 21st century compared to present-day conditions. It complements previous studies by investigating a more comprehensive database and considering seasonal changes beside the annual time scale. Confirming previous studies, the agreement between the GCMs is generally high for temperature-related extremes, indicating increases of warm day occurrences and heatwave lengths, and decreases of cold extremes. However, we identify issues with the choice of indices used to quantify heatwave lengths, which do overall not affect the sign of the changes, but strongly impact the magnitude and patterns of projected changes in heatwave characteristics. Projected changes in precipitation and dryness extremes are more ambiguous than those in temperature extremes, despite some robust features, such as increasing dryness over the Mediterranean and increasing heavy precipitation over the Northern high latitudes. We also find that the assessment of projected changes in dryness depends on the index choice, and that models show less agreement regarding changes in soil moisture than in the commonly used 'consecutive dry days' index, which is based on precipitation data only. Finally an analysis of the scaling of changes of extreme temperature quantiles with global, regional and seasonal warming shows that much of the extreme quantile changes are due to a seasonal scaling of the regional annual-mean warming. This emphasizes the importance of the seasonal time scale also for extremes. Changes in extreme quantiles of temperature on land scale with changes in global annual mean temperature by a factor of more than 2 in some regions and seasons, implying large changes in extremes in several countries, even for the commonly discussed global 2A degrees C-warming target.",Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+490721,"Fire regime is affected by climate and human settlements. In the Mediterranean, the predicted climate change is likely to exacerbate fire prone weather conditions, but the mid- to long-term impact of climate change on fire regime is not easily predictable. A negative feedback via fuel reduction, for instance, might cause a non-linear response of burned area to fire weather. Also, the number of fires escaping initial control could grow dramatically if the fire meteorology is just slightly more severe than what fire brigades are prepared for. Humans can directly influence fire regimes through ignition frequency, fire suppression and land use management. Here we use the fire regime model FIRE LADY to assess the impacts of climate change and local management options on number of fires, burned area, fraction of area burned in large fires and forest area during the twenty-first century in three regions of NE Spain. Our results show that currently fuel-humidity limited regions could suffer a drastic shift of fire regime with an up to 8 fold increase of annual burned area, due to a combination of fuel accumulation and severe fire weather, which would result in a period of unusually large fires. The impact of climate change on fire regime is predicted to be less pronounced in drier areas, with a gradual increase of burned area. Local fire prevention strategies could reduce but not totally offset climate induced changes in fire regimes. According to our model, a combination of restoring the traditional rural mosaic and classical fire prevention would be the most effective strategy, as a lower ignition frequency reduces the number of fires and the creation of agricultural fields in marginal areas reduces their extent.",Management alternatives to offset climate change effects on Mediterranean fire regimes in NE Spain,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+781401,"Remote populations can influence connectivity and may serve as refugia from climate change. We investigated two reef-building corals (Pseudodiploria strigosa and Orbicella franksi) from the Flower Garden Banks (FGB), the most isolated, high-latitude Caribbean reef system, which, until recently, retained high coral cover. We characterized coral size-frequency distributions, quantified larval mortality rates and onset of competence ex situ, estimated larval production, and created detailed biophysical models incorporating these parameters to evaluate the source sink dynamics at the FGB from 2009 to 2012. Estimated mortality rates were similar between species, but pre-competency differed dramatically; P. strigosa was capable of metamorphosis within 2.5 d post-fertilization (dpf) and was competent at least until 8 dpf, while 0. franksi was not competent until >20 dpf and remained competent up to 120 dpf. To explore the effect of such contrasting life histories on connectivity, we modeled larval dispersal from the FGB assuming pelagic larval durations (PLD) of either 3-20 d, approximating laboratory measured pre-competency of P. strigosa, or 20-120 d, approximating pre-competency observed in 0. franksi. Surprisingly, both models predicted similar probabilities of local retention at the FGB, either by direct rapid reseeding or via long-term persistence in the Loop Current with larvae returning to the FGB within a month. However, our models predicted that short PLDs would result in complete isolation from the rest of the Caribbean, while long PLDs allowed for larval export to more distant northern Caribbean reefs, highlighting the importance of quantifying larval pre-competency dynamics when parameterizing biophysical models to predict larval connectivity. These simulations suggest that FGB coral populations are likely to be largely self-sustaining and highlight the potential of long-PLD corals, such as endangered Orbicella, to act as larval sources for other degraded Caribbean reefs.",Modeled differences of coral life-history traits influence the refugium potential of a remote Caribbean reef,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+209563,The true mean monthly/annual air-temperature estimations are usually based on the monthly averages of meteorological observations performed at standard hours. The performance of this combination varies as it depends on local climate of the particular meteorological station; it consequently allows for small/large deviations from its exact value. This study examines the possible deviations in Greece and suggests ways of improving the derived estimates. Two cases are considered. (1) An area has one thermograph and a number of thermometric stations. (2) An area has several thermographs and many thermometric stations. Solutions for minimizing the estimation error in both cases are provided.,Improving the estimation of the true mean monthly and true mean annual air temperatures in Greece,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+412741,"Fish communities are dynamic and their structure is known to change over time. Traditionally, these changes were considered to be fisheries-induced, but recent analyses also suggest that global warming could affect the distribution, abundance, and assemblage composition of marine fish. However, disentangling the effects of fisheries and those resulting from climate change is difficult, because both potential drivers act simultaneously. In our study, we distinguished between the effects of fisheries and climate change on the fish assemblage of the southern North Sea by comparing survey catch data for that region during four unique periods throughout the past century, characterized by (i) low fishing pressure during a cold period (1902-1908), (ii) low fishing pressure during a warm period (1950-1956), (iii) high fishing pressure during a cold period (1978-1984), and (iv) high fishing pressure during a warm period (2002-2008). Our analysis indicates that the demersal fish community in the southern North Sea has changed in response to changes in both climate and fishing pressure. Our results suggest both a relatively higher richness of Lusitanian (warm-favouring) species compared with boreal (cool-favouring) species, and a lower mean body size of the fish community during times of warming, independent of fishing pressure.",Comparing demersal fish assemblages between periods of contrasting climate and fishing pressure,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1545709,"Past multiyear temperature (T), precipitation (P) and river discharge (Q) trends across Serbia are presented in the paper, both annual and monthly basis. The first objective of the research is to find observed multiyear T, P and Q trends in Serbia, which could be similar to the long-term trends and to assess the correlations between them. The results indicate that the long-term average yearly trends are approximately: temperature increase of 0.6 degrees C/100 years, a slight decrease in precipitation, but with significant differences between western and eastern part of the country, and a decrease in river discharge of 30%/100 years. The second objective, and most important finding is the result of average correlations between air temperature increase and changes in river discharges and precipitation. The conclusion is that all the selected monitoring stations report an inversely proportional correlation between average annual temperatures and annual river discharges. On average, a 1 degrees C increase in annual temperatures roughly corresponds to a 20% reduction in average annual river discharge and a 7% reduction in average annual precipitation. It is shown that an average annual temperature increase of 2 degrees C will likely result in half the river discharge in Serbia, on average. The methodology described in the paper may be very useful for estimating near future (approx. next 30 years) average river discharges in many parts of the world, particularly in regions where a decreasing precipitation trend has been recorded. The third objective and important conclusion is related to low-discharge months (July through October). A considerably lower negative river discharge trend (close to zero) is noted, as a result of an upward precipitation trend during these months, but also in places due to human impact. The fourth objective is to generally compare the results of this research based only on observed changes, in which regional climate and hydrologic models (RCMs) were not used, with the results obtained by RCMs for the near future in different projects and studies by other authors.",Present and future mean hydrologic trends in Serbia as a function of climate trends,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+191818,"The sensitivity and response of northern hemisphere altitudinal and polar treelines to environmental change are increasingly discussed in terms of climate change, often forgetting that climate is only one aspect of environmental variation. As treeline heterogeneity increases from global to regional and smaller scales, assessment of treeline sensitivity at the landscape and local scales requires a more complex approach than at the global scale. The time scale (short-, medium-, long-term) also plays an important role when considering treeline sensitivity. The sensitivity of the treeline to a changing environment varies among different types of treeline. Treelines controlled mainly by orographic influences are not very susceptible to the effects of warming climates. Greatest sensitivity can be expected in anthropogenic treelines after the cessation of human activity. However, tree invasion into former forested areas above the anthropogenic forest limit is controlled by site conditions, and in particular, by microclimates and soils. Apart from changes in tree physiognomy, the spontaneous advance of young growth of forest-forming tree species into present treeless areas within the treeline ecotone and beyond the tree limit is considered to be the best indicator of treeline sensitivity to environmental change. The sensitivity of climatic treelines to climate warming varies both in the local and regional topographical conditions. Furthermore, treeline history and its after-effects also play an important role. The sensitivity of treelines to changes in given factors (e.g. winter snow pack, soil moisture, temperature, evaporation, etc.) may vary among areas with differing climatic characteristics. In general, forest will not advance in a closed front but will follow sites that became more favourable to tree establishment under the changed climatic conditions.",Sensitivity and response of northern hemisphere altitudinal and polar treelines to environmental change at landscape and local scales,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+267004,"Climate change and variability may have an impact on the occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of the food chain, from primary production through to consumption. There are multiple pathways through which climate related factors may impact food safety including: changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ocean warming and acidification, and changes in contaminants' transport pathways among others. Climate change may also affect socio-economic aspects related to food systems such as agriculture, animal production, global trade, demographics and human behaviour which all influence food safety. This paper reviews the potential impacts of predicted changes in climate on food contamination and food safety at various stages of the food chain and identifies adaptation strategies and research priorities to address food safety implications of climate change. The paper concludes that there is a need for intersectoral and international cooperation to better understand the changing food safety situation and in developing and implementing adaptation strategies to address emerging risks associated with climate change. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Climate change and food safety: A review,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+68143,"Background: The on-going climate change is predicted to yield a growing number of extreme climate events which will increase in both intensity and frequency. Increased longevity is changing society's demographics. It is very likely this will have a direct impact on population health. Many studies have previously shown that the elderly in a society are among the most vulnerable to heat waves. Objectives: With a rapidly growing number of publications on this subject the objective was to review the recent literature for research regarding the impact of heat waves and elevated temperature on the elderly with regards to mortality and morbidity. Methods: PubMed was searched to identify studies published in English between 1st of January 2008 and 31st of December 2010 using the following key words: heat wave, mortality, morbidity, elderly and temperature. The relationship between high temperature and mortality and/or morbidity had to be studied. Results for the elderly had to be provided. Results: Six studies of temperature-morbidity-relationship were found and 24 studies of temperature-mortality-relationship. Studies consistently reported increases in cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, as appeared also respiratory admissions to do during hot days and heat waves. However, the number of studies on morbidity published was much fewer. Few studies reported social, medical and environmental susceptibility factors. Conclusions: Future research should focus on studying susceptibilities and to non-fatal events which are not as studied as mortality. Studies on the modification of type of urban environment, housing and mortality and morbidity in the elderly population are also needed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.",Heat wave impact on morbidity and mortality in the elderly population: A review of recent studies,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+909157,"Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) continue to be common environmental contaminants. The anthropogenic sources of these compounds are broadly classed as petrogenic and pyrogenic, but more importantly specific sources including activities such as coal burning, oil spills, and application of coal tar sealants can be identified based on several types of data analysis. Several studies have focused on PAHs in sediments of lakes, streams, and stormwater ponds in larger urban areas, finding contamination arising from a number of different sources and correlating well to land use in the nearby watershed. We report here a study of PAH concentrations and source identification for river and lakebed sediments in and upstream of three smaller Wisconsin municipalities: Eau Claire (Eau Claire River), Stevens Point (Plover River), and Racine (Root River). PAH concentrations increased with increasing developed land cover and impervious surface. Concentrations within the cities and upstream agricultural or residential areas do not rise to the level found in larger urban areas or stormwater ponds servicing industrial or commercial land use, but can rise to a level that exceeds the Threshold Effects Concentration (TEC). Concentrations in areas with natural landcovers were very low, with the exception of one sample in a wet-land with unusually high organic content. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that coal tar-based pavement sealants are a primary source of the contamination in all three cities. PAH concentrations reported here are likely conservative, and these results indicate that even smaller cities using detention ponds as a stormwater management practice should be prepared for costs of contaminated sediment disposal. (c) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contamination and source profiling in watersheds serving three small Wisconsin, USA cities",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1375400,We provide evidence of large-scale changes in the biogeography of calanoid copepod crustaceans in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean and European shelf seas. We demonstrate that strong biogeographical shifts in all copepod assemblages have occurred with a northward extension of more than 10degrees latitude of warm-water species associated with a decrease in the number of colder-water species. These biogeographical shifts are in agreement with recent changes in the spatial distribution and phenology detected for many taxonomic groups in terrestrial European ecosystems and are related to both the increasing trend in Northern Hemisphere temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation.,Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+340576,"Although recent studies have demonstrated that calcification in a wide range of marine organisms is profoundly affected by CO2-induced ocean acidification, the mechanism of this phenomenon is still unclear. To clarify the effects of ocean acidification on the calcification process at the molecular level, we evaluated the expression of three biomineralization-related genes in the sea urchin Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus exposed under control, 1,000, and 2,000 ppm CO2 from egg to pluteus larval stage. We found that the expression of the gene msp130, which is proposed to transport Ca2+ to the calcification site, is suppressed by increased CO2 at pluteus larval stage. Meanwhile, expression of the spicule protein matrix genes SM30 and SM50 was apparently not affected. The results suggest that the combined effects of ocean acidification on the expression of skeletogenesis-related genes as well as the change in seawater carbonate chemistry affect the biomineralization ability of sea urchins.","Ocean acidification reduces biomineralization-related gene expression in the sea urchin, Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3982862,"Objectives: To examine associations between demographics, people’s beliefs, and compliance with behaviours recommended by the UK government to prevent the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. Design: A two-wave online survey conducted one week apart during the national lockdown (April, 2020). Measures: A sample of 477 UK residents completed baseline measures from the reasoned action approach (experiential attitudes, instrumental attitudes, injunctive norms, descriptive norms, capacity, autonomy, and intention) and perceived susceptibility for each of the following recommended behaviours: limiting leaving home, keeping at least 2 m away from other people when outside and when inside shops, not visiting or meeting friends or other family members, and washing hands when returning home. Self-reported compliance with each of the recommended behaviours was assessed one week later. Results: Rates of full compliance with the recommended behaviours ranged from 31% (keeping at least 2 m away from other people when inside shops) to 68% (not visiting or meeting friends or other family members). Capacity was a significant predictor of compliance with each of the five recommended behaviours. Increasing age and intentions were also predictive of compliance with three of the behaviours. Conclusions: Interventions to increase compliance with the recommended behaviours to prevent the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, especially those relating to social distancing, need to bolster people’s intentions and perceptions of capacity. This may be achieved through media-based information campaigns as well as environmental changes to make compliance with such measures easier. Such interventions should particularly target younger adults. © 2020 The Authors. British Journal of Health Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Psychological Society",Reasoned action approach and compliance with recommended behaviours to prevent the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the UK,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1446317,"Great part of ecological thought in desert ecology is based oil research findings in the northern hemisphere, and these have led to generalizations to other drylands. However, South American aridlands constitute an important scenario of aridland evolution in the Neotropical temperate biota. The degree of distinctiveness of the South American dryland biota is the result of the history of lineages and place (diverse topography, climates, vegetation) in the southern part of the continent since the Oligocene. The aim Of Our Contribution is to provide all updated review of some aspects of the latest biogeographical, ecological, physiological, and behavioral research of the Monte Desert mammals and reassessment of their evolutionary ecology. The temperate Monte Desert extends from 24 degrees to 43 degrees South latitude and resembles parts of the North American warm deserts. The Monte is a heterogeneous mosaic of landscapes, from open sand dune habitats to Larrea shrublands and dense vegetation patches of Prosopis woodlands. The mammal assemblages show variations in richness, diversity and endemicity. The structure of mammal assemblages is closely related to vegetation structure over different spatial scales. The Monte mammal assemblages show a great diversity of niche types and ecological, physiological and behavioral attributes For desert existence, convergent, in greater or lesser degree, with ecological Counterparts from other deserts of the world. We point Out the need to be Cautious when comparing heterogeneous and ecosystems. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved,",The mammals of the Monte Desert revisited,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+405676,"Climate change forced by anthropogenic activities has been ongoing since at least the beginning of the industrial revolution. Part of the recent warming in the western United States has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. This research seeks to answer the basic question of how declining streamflow, increasing temperatures, and fluctuation in precipitation have impacted water resource allocation in the Snake River Plain over the past 35 years (1971-2005). Understanding how changes in climatic attributes have historically impacted water allocation should help water managers better understand how projected climate change may influence allocation. Annual and monthly diversion trends from 62 locations in the Snake River Plain were compared to temperature and precipitation trends at 10 climate stations across the basin. We found a strong trend of declining annual surface water diversions across the study area. Of the 62 diversion points examined, 45 have highly significant decreasing annual diversion trends, while an additional 8 have significant decreasing trends. Despite the annual decline in surface water diversions, April diversions have increased at more than half of the diversion points, with 15 locations showing highly significant trends and an additional 17 showing significant increasing diversion trends. A comparison of diversions to the Surface Water Supply Index indicates that the decline in midseason and late season diversions is mostly caused by decreasing supply in the study period, while a comparison of diversions to Palmer's Z index and the Standardized Precipitation Index indicates that early season diversions are highly correlated to early season moisture anomalies.","Relating climatic attributes and water resources allocation: A study using surface water supply and soil moisture indices in the Snake River basin, Idaho",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+292963,"Recently, two new methods have been developed to extract environmentally driven growth trends from data provided by long-term experiments. The methods draw either on year ring series of sample trees cut during the experiments (annually resolved growth data, tree-level diameter increment trend; (YuE et al., 2011) or on series of periodic re-measurements of the whole stands (multi-annual measurement intervals, stand-level basal area increment trends; (YuE et al., 2012). Data from Norway spruce, silver fir, Douglas-fir or European beech for exemplifying purposes demonstrate that both methods result in comparable trends (figure 5). Based on these findings, we exploited in this study the rather substantial database available for a variety of tree species from periodically repeated stand measurements of long-term experimental sites in southwest Germany (cf. table 1, figures 1-2) for the purposes of growth trend analyses. Overall, the following general pattern of growth trends in southwest Germany emerged: all tree species included in the analysis (Norway spruce, silver fir, Douglas-fir, Scots pine, European beech, and oak) showed increment trends increasing from the middle of the 20th century until the 1990s (cf. figures 5-6). For silver fir (figure 5), this increasing trend was temporarily disrupted by a characteristic growth depression occurring in the 1970s-1980s. In the 1990s, growth trends reversed in all tree species into declining trends. For comparative purposes, trends for temperature and precipitation were averaged from all experiment locations. However, both climate factors (cf. figure 3, left & central) did not correspond with growth trends. In particular, they were lacking explanatory power for the general trend reversion observed in the 1990s. Therefore, the DeMartonne index for aridity was additionally calculated as an attempt to capture the influence of the interaction of these two climatic factors on water supply: In contrast to the temperature or precipitation trends, the trend of the index of aridity corresponded not only with increasing growth trends since the 1950s but also with the reversion into declining trends in the 1990s (cf. figure 3, right). However, the magnitude of temporal variation in growth trends (cf. figures 5-6) clearly exceeded that of the index of aridity, which was only marginal if calculated for the vegetation period (cf. figure 3, right). Possibly, this indicates that in addition to climate factors other growth relevant environmental factors have impacted on the growth trends. In order to investigate possible regional differences in growth and climate trends, experiment locations were separated according to their respective temperature regime indicating their affiliation to climatic elevation zones (plains of low altitude high mountainous zones) (WOLFF et al., 2003). Obviously, the increase in temperature trend has relatively been strongest in the cooler regions (cf. figure 4, left), whereas the trend decline since the 1990s of the index of aridity has not displayed much differentiation between the regions (cf. figure 4, right). Interestingly growth trends differentiated for regions indicate a relationship between climate characteristics in a tree species' major natural range and current development in growth trends. Tree species naturally occurring in relatively cooler climate (conifers: Norway spruce and Scots pine; deciduous: European beech) current growth trends observed in relatively cooler regions of southwest Germany exceed the development in relatively warmer regions (cf. figure 7). In contrast, the growth trend of oak in the warmer region exceeded its trend in the cooler zone (cf. figure 7). Silver fir shows a more intermediate position as growth trends do not differ much between the warmer and the cooler zone (cf. figure 8). As the magnitude of the temporal variation of growth trends clearly exceeds the magnitude of the differences observed between the regions we conclude that it will be particularly important to address the aspect of temporal variation of growth and growth relevant factors adequately in causal investigations as well as in developing environment sensitive growth models.",Growth trends driven by environmental factors extracted from long term experimental data in southwest Germany,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1474498,Finds of steppe mammal fossils in Pleistocene-dated deposits in regions situated hundreds/thousands kilometers apart from their modern distributions are considered as markers of certain events in climate and landscape dynamics in North Eurasia during the late Pleistocene. Fossil data were used to examine peculiarities of area shifting in several species of the steppe mammal communities in response to the climate and landscape dynamics of the late Pleistocene and Holocene intervals. The main attention was paid to the data from the Ural region. The main idea of this study was to reveal regularities of distribution concerning some species of small mammals representing steppe biota found in Late Pleistocene and Holocene sediments in the Urals. The research concentrated mainly on the northern border position limiting these species' ranges during different time intervals. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.,Steppe species in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene small mammal community of the Urals,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+632426,"The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest potential source of future sea-level rise. Mass loss has been increasing over the last 2 decades for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) but with significant discrepancies between estimates, especially for the Antarctic Peninsula. Most of these estimates utilise geophysical models to explicitly correct the observations for (unobserved) processes. Systematic errors in these models introduce biases in the results which are difficult to quantify. In this study, we provide a statistically rigorous error-bounded trend estimate of ice mass loss over the WAIS from 2003 to 2009 which is almost entirely data driven. Using altimetry, gravimetry, and GPS data in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we derive spatial fields for ice mass change, surface mass balance, and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) without relying explicitly on forward models. The approach we use separates mass and height change contributions from different processes, reproducing spatial features found in, for example, regional climate and GIA forward models, and provides an independent estimate which can be used to validate and test the models. In addition, spatial error estimates are derived for each field. The mass loss estimates we obtain are smaller than some recent results, with a time-averaged mean rate of -76 +/- 15 Gt yr(-1) for the WAIS and Antarctic Peninsula, including the major Antarctic islands. The GIA estimate compares well with results obtained from recent forward models (IJ05-R2) and inverse methods (AGE-1). The Bayesian framework is sufficiently flexible that it can, eventually, be used for the whole of Antarctica, be adapted for other ice sheets and utilise data from other sources such as ice cores, accumulation radar data, and other measurements that contain information about any of the processes that are solved for.",Simultaneous solution for mass trends on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2274034,"Aside from climatic factors, the impact of heat waves on mortality depends on the demographic and socio-economic structure of the population as well as variables relating to local housing. Hence, this study's main aim was to ascertain whether there might be a differential impact of heat waves on daily mortality by area of residence. The study is a time-series analysis (2000-2009) of daily mortality and minimum and maximum daily temperatures (degrees C) in five geographical areas of the Madrid region. The impact of such waves on heat-related mortality due to natural causes (ICD-10: A00- R99), circulatory causes (ICD-10: I00-I99) and respiratory causes (ICD-10: J00-J99) was obtained by calculating the relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR), using GLM models with the Poisson link and controlling for trend, seasonalities and the autoregressive nature of the series. Furthermore, we also evaluated other external variables, such as the percentage of the population aged over 65years and the percentage of old housing. No heat-related mortality threshold temperature with statistical significance was detected in the northern and eastern areas. While the threshold temperatures in the central and southern areas were very similar and close to the 90th percentile, the threshold in the western area corresponded to the 97th percentile. Attributable mortality proved to be highest in the central area with 85 heat wave-related deaths per annum. External factors found to influence the impact of heat on mortality in Madrid were the size of the population aged over 65years and the age of residential housing. Demographic structure and the percentage of old housing play a key role in modulating the impact of heat waves. This study concludes that the areas in which heat acts earliest are those having a higher degree of population ageing.",Differences in the impact of heat waves according to urban and peri-urban factors in Madrid,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+759745,"Background: Schistosomiasis is classically described as a rural disease that occurs in areas with poor sanitary conditions. However, over recent decades, there has been an expansion of schistosomiasis foci towards urban areas faced with a rapid and disordered urbanization. In Bamako, Mali, the impact of environmental change on vector-borne diseases such as schistosomiasis is not well known. This study sought to identify the presence of schistosomiasis transmission hotspots in Bamako. Using this perspective, we aimed to describe the risk factors of the endemization and maintenance of schistosomiasis. Materials and methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out in the six municipalities (communes) in Bamako. Environmental information was obtained from earth observation satellites in order to maximize ecological contrasts. Twenty-nine blocks of 200 m x 200 m were identified. We selected a school inside or nearest to each block for urine and stool samples examination. The study cohort was school children aged between eight and 15 years. The Kato-Katz technique and filtration were used for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium ova research in stools and urine, respectively. The schools and snail breeding sites were georeferenced. Four malacological surveys were conducted between October 2011 and February 2012. Bivariate analysis was used to identify independent predictors of being infected with schistosomiasis. Results: The prevalence rate of S. haematobium was 14.7% (n = 1,761) and that of S. mansoni 1.5% (n = 1,491). Overall, the urinary form was endemic in 76.6% of schools. The infection significantly varied between the municipalities (p < 0.001). It was also more prevalent on the left side of the Niger River than the right side (17.4% vs. 9.5% respectively; p < 0.001). The vicinity to snail breeding sites (OR = 3.677; 95% IC [2.765-4.889]; p < 10-3) and parents' occupations (OR = 7.647; 95% IC [2.406-24.305]; p < 0.001) were the most important risk factors associated with S. haematobium infection exposure. Biomphalaria pfeifferi, Bulinus truncatus, and B. globosus were the intermediate hosts captured. The schistosome natural infection rates (SNIRs), which were low or nil in October and November, rose to 2.8% in January and 8.3% in February for B. pfeifferi and B. truncatus, respectively. Conclusion: Our findings show that there is a high transmission risk for schistosomiasis in Bamako. Appropriate integrated control measures need to be introduced to control the transmission of this disease in the study area.","Urban schistosomiasis and associated determinant factors among school children in Bamako, Mali, West Africa",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3270379,"Concern about the human impact of climate change has led to predictions of how people living in areas vulnerable to drought, flood, and temperature changes will respond to such events. Early studies warned that climate change would lead to dramatic increases in human migration as households became unable to adapt to the impacts of climate change. More recently, empirical studies focused on observed climate events and trends have documented how migration flows vary as a function of both the severity of the event and the ability of the household to migrate, among other factors. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of this literature, based on a conceptual framework in which climate shocks (e.g., drought, floods, or temperature extremes) affect (a) household capability to migrate, by depleting household resources necessary for migration, and (b) household vulnerability in staying, by increasing the risk that a household falls (further) into poverty. In combination, these factors help explain four key patterns seen in the empirical literature: (1) climate-induced migration is not necessarily more prevalent among poorer households; (2) climate-induced migration tends to be more prevalent for long-distance domestic moves than local or international moves; (3) slow-onset climate changes (such as droughts) are more likely to induce increased migration than rapid-onset changes (such as floods); and (4) the severity of climate shocks impacts migration in a nonlinear fashion, with impacts influenced by whether the capability or vulnerability channel dominates.",The impact of climate change on migration: a synthesis of recent empirical insights,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2089960,"In tropical Latin America, pasture land for extensive grazing continues to expand, mostly at the expense of forest cover. Until now, scientists and policy makers tackling this issue had no geographically exhaustive information at the continental level about the spatial dynamics of this process. On the basis of a land use change-modeling framework we made a projection of potential land use changes for the year 2010. The chosen modeling framework incorporates a number of essential aspects of the complexity of land use change, such as the interrelation of spatial and temporal dynamics, land use history and scale dependence. The model was provided with up-to-date, continent wide, detailed information on present land use and its location factors, selected on the basis of literature. Model inputs were established in collaboration with experts from the region. Significant statistical relations were obtained that describe land use patterns in sub-regions, giving insights into the deforestation process and its location factors. Combined with decision rules and quantitative estimates of land use change, ""hot spots"" of forest to pasture and crop land conversion were projected. The results envisage a predominant replacement of forest by pasture. Substantially different trends among countries are predicted, both concerning the spatial patterns of deforestation and the substitution trends between land uses. The hot spot maps also show sensitive biological areas that may be at risk. The resulting continent wide map of projected change shall help to target policy attention and measures. It also provides a context to the numerous undergoing deforestation case studies. Finally, it is proposed that the study's results be considered in the priority setting of future research on the causes of deforestation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Projecting land use changes in the Neotropics: The geography of pasture expansion into forest,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2091676,"In this work, we analyze the various natural and man-made hazards that may affect the Cayman Islands and determine the level of exposure of Grand Cayman to these events. The magnitude, frequency, and probability of occurrence of the natural and man-made hazards that may potentially affect the islands are identified and ranked. The more important natural hazard to which the Cayman Islands are exposed is clearly hurricanes. To a lesser degree, the islands may be occasionally exposed to earthquakes and tsunamis. Explosions or leaks of the Airport Texaco Fuel Depot and the fuel pipeline at Grand Cayman are the most significant man-made hazards. The results of the hazard evaluation indicate that there are four areas in Grand Cayman with various levels of exposure to natural and man-made hazards: The North Sound, Little Sound, and Eastern West Bay (Area 1) show a very high level of exposure; The Central Mangroves, Central Bodden Town, Central George Town, and the West Bay (Area 2) have high level of exposure; The Northwestern West Bay, Western Georgetown-Bodden Town, and East End-North Side (Area 3) are under moderate levels of exposure. The remainder of the island shows low exposure (Area 4).",Natural and man-made hazards in the Cayman Islands,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+487768,"Changing global climate, particularly rising temperatures, has been linked through observations with advanced spring phenology in temperate regions. We experimentally tested if regional climate change predictions of increased temperature and precipitation alter the spring phenology of eastern US tree seedlings. This study reports the results of a 3-year-field experiment designed to study the responses of eastern deciduous tree species planted in a post-harvest environment to a 2 A degrees C increase in temperature and a 20 % increase in precipitation. Species were monitored for timing of germination and leaf out in four treatment combinations (ambient, warmed, irrigated, and warmed + irrigated) on 16 plots located in a recently harvested central Pennsylvania forest. The 2 A degrees C warming advanced day of seed germination by an average of 2 weeks and seedling leaf out by 10 days among all species (both p < 0.001). However, increased precipitation did not result in a significant change in spring phenology. Species responded uniquely to treatments, with germination advancing in three of five species in response to warming and leaf out advancing in six of six species. Southern species projected to expand northward into the study region with rising temperatures did not show responses to warming treatments that would provide them an advantage over current resident species. Timing of germination and leaf out varied among years of the experiment, most likely driven by year-to-year variability in spring temperatures. The climate change experiment highlighted the potential of a moderate 2 A degrees C temperature increase to advance spring phenology of deciduous tree seedlings by up to 2 weeks, with a lack of a phenological response to a 20 % increase in precipitation.","Eastern deciduous tree seedlings advance spring phenology in response to experimental warming, but not wetting, treatments",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+594238,"Climate variability and human activity were regarded as two contributors to streamflow alteration. However, the contributions of the two factors were still unclear in Dongting Lake. Therefore, it was crucial to quantify the relative impact of climate variability and human activity on streamflow alteration. The time series (1961-2010) was divided into three periods, namely, natural period (1961-1980), change period I (1981-2002) and change period II (2003-2010). Sensitivity analysis based on Budyko-type equations was applied to reveal the contributions of climate variability and human activity in those two change periods, respectively. The results showed that during the change period I, climate variability was the main factor responsible for streamflow alteration in most parts of Dongting Lake, accounting for 60.07-67.27%. However, the impact of climate variability was slightly smaller than that of human activity in West Dongting Lake (the former accounting for 43.20% while the latter accounting for 56.80%). For the change period II, human activity was the dominate factor for streamflow alteration, accounting for 58.89-78.33%. The impact of climate variability gradually decreased while the impact of human activity gradually increased. Along with the intensification of the human activity, the impact of it became more dominant. The results could provide a reference for water resources planning and management decisions. Under the condition of uncontrollable climatic factor, effective measures should be put forward in controlling human activity, such as reservoir/dam operation, closed management of protected area and so on. Besides, it is essential to study the impact of climate variability on future water resources and water resource management under different climate change scenarios. Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.","Quantitative assessment of the contribution of climate variability and human activity to streamflow alteration in Dongting Lake, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+338744,"Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.",Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3938568,"Plantation forests and second-growth forests are becoming dominant components of many tropical forest landscapes. Yet there is little information available concerning the consequences of different forestry options for biodiversity conservation in the tropics. We sampled the leaf-litter herpetofauna of primary, secondary, and Eucalyptus plantation forests in the Jari River area of northeastern Brazilian Amazonia. We used four complementary sampling techniques, combined samples from 2 consecutive years, and collected 1739 leaf-litter amphibians (23 species) and 1937 lizards (30 species). We analyzed the data for differences among forest types regarding patterns of alpha and beta diversity, species-abundance distributions, and community structure. Primary rainforest harbored significantly more species, but supported a similar abundance of amphibians and lizards compared with adjacent areas of second-growth forest or plantations. Plantation forests were dominated by wide-ranging habitat generalists. Secondary forest faunas contained a number of species characteristic of primary forest habitat. Amphibian communities in secondary forests and Eucalyptus plantations formed a nested subset of primary forest species, whereas the species composition of the lizard community in plantations was distinct, and was dominated by open-area species. Although plantation forests are relatively impoverished, naturally regenerating forests can help mitigate some negative effects of deforestation for herpetofauna. Nevertheless, secondary forest does not provide a substitute for primary forest, and in the absence of further evidence from older successional stands, we caution against the optimistic claim that natural forest regeneration in abandoned lands will provide refuge for the many species that are currently threatened by deforestation. © 2007 Society for Conservation Biology.","The value of primary, secondary, and plantation forests for a neotropical herpetofauna",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3974463,"At the end of history's bloodiest century and the outset of a new millennium, we have an opportunity to fulfil one of humanity's oldest dreams: making the world largely free of war. Global changes make this goal achievable. Nuclear weapons have shown the folly of war. For the first time, there is no war and no immediate prospect of war among the main military powers. For the first time, many proven measures to prevent armed conflict, distilled in the crucible of this century's wars, are available. If systematically applied, these measures can sharply decrease the frequency and violence of war, genocide, and other forms of deadly conflict. To seize the opportunity, nations should adopt a comprehensive programme to reduce conventional armaments and armed conflict. This programme will complement and strengthen efforts to eliminate nuclear arms. To assure its ongoing worldwide implementation, the conventional reduction programme should be placed in a treaty framework. We propose a four-phased process, with three treaties, each lasting five to ten years, to lay the groundwork for the fourth treaty, which will establish a permanent international security system. The main objectives of the treaties are to achieve: 1. A verified commitment to provide full transparency on conventional armed forces and military spending, not to increase forces during negotiations on arms reductions, and to increase the resources allocated to multilateral conflict prevention and peacekeeping. 2. Substantial worldwide cuts in national armed forces and military spending and further strengthening of United Nations and regional peacekeeping and peace-enforcement capabilities. 3. A trial of a watershed commitment by participating nations, including the major powers, not to deploy their armed forces beyond national borders except in a multilateral action under UN or regional auspices. 4. A permanent transfer to the UN and regional security organizations of the authority and capability for armed intervention to prevent or end war, accompanied by further substantial cuts in national armed forces and increases in UN and regional forces. This programme offers many valuable features: a global framework for conventional forces that parallels the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty; a verified no-increase commitment for national armed forces based on full data exchange; a commitment to undertake prescribed confidence-building measures, including limits on force activities and deployments; a commitment to a specified plan for increased funding of UN and regional peacekeeping capabilities; a commitment to strengthen international legal institutions; and after a trial period, a lasting commitment by each participant not to unilaterally deploy its armed forces beyond its borders, but instead to give the responsibility for peacekeeping and peace enforcement to international institutions. This programme of phased steps to reduce armed forces and strengthen peacekeeping institutions will make war rare. It will foster the spread of zones of peace like those in North America and Western Europe where, after centuries of violence, international and civil war have given way to the peaceful settlement of disputes.","Global action to prevent war: A programme for government and grassroots efforts to stop war, genocide and other forms of deadly conflict",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+723510,"Streamflow observations from near-natural catchments are of paramount importance for detection and attribution studies, evaluation of large-scale model simulations, and assessment of water management, adaptation and policy options. This study investigates streamflow trends in a newly-assembled, consolidated dataset of near-natural streamflow records from 441 small catchments in 15 countries across Europe. The period 1962-2004 provided the best spatial coverage, but analyses were also carried out for longer time periods (with fewer stations), starting in 1932, 1942 and 1952. Trends were calculated by the slopes of the Kendall-Theil robust line for standardized annual and monthly streamflow, as well as for summer low flow magnitude and timing. A regionally coherent picture of annual streamflow trends emerged, with negative trends in southern and eastern regions, and generally positive trends elsewhere. Trends in monthly streamflow for 1962-2004 elucidated potential causes for these changes, as well as for changes in hydrological regimes across Europe. Positive trends were found in the winter months in most catchments. A marked shift towards negative trends was observed in April, gradually spreading across Europe to reach a maximum extent in August. Low flows have decreased in most regions where the lowest mean monthly flow occurs in summer, but vary for catchments which have flow minima in winter and secondary low flows in summer. The study largely confirms findings from national and regional scale trend analyses, but clearly adds to these by confirming that these tendencies are part of coherent patterns of change, which cover a much larger region. The broad, continental-scale patterns of change are mostly congruent with the hydrological responses expected from future climatic changes, as projected by climate models. The patterns observed could hence provide a valuable benchmark for a number of different studies and model simulations.",Streamflow trends in Europe: evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2306743,"Human-induced erosion is one of the key factors leading to the soil degradation. Agricultural, undulating or hilly morainic areas of North-Eastern Poland are exposed to this negative process. This paper elucidates the influence of accelerated soil erosion on soil cover in young morainic landscapes of North-Eastern Poland (Brodnica Lake District). Detailed pedological investigation (21 soil pits and 375 augerholes) were carried out within two study sites (forest and agricultural). A comparison of fully developed forest reference soil pedons with arable soil has been made. Five classes of soil truncation have been distinguished. According to the identified degrees of truncation, maps of soil cover transformation, caused by accelerated erosion, were generated and overlapped on Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). Eroded soils overlap 39.5% of agricultural area and 2.5% of forest site. The widespread occurrence of strongly and completely eroded pedons (respectively 7.4% and 5.4%), only in the agricultural areas, provides intense anthropogenic impact on soil cover in the agriculture areas of North-Eastern Poland. The average values of soil reduction are about 40-50 cm. In the case of completely eroded soils it exceeds even 100 cm. Truncation Of pedons with abrupt textural change due to the slope processes leads to the disappearance of vertical textural contrasts and the formation of new soil units. The evidence of erosion from the top-soils is mainly the decrease in the content of organic matter and calcium carbonate enrichment. The effect of intensive slope processes is widespread occurrence of thick (up to 3 m) colluvial deposits. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Use of soil profile truncation to estimate influence of accelerated erosion on soil cover transformation in young morainic landscapes, North-Eastern Poland",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+327679,"We show that the distributions of both exploited and nonexploited North Sea fishes have responded markedly to recent increases in sea temperature, with nearly two-thirds of species shifting in mean latitude or depth or both over 25 years. For species with northerly or southerly range margins in the North Sea, half have shown boundary shifts with warming, and all but one shifted northward. Species with shifting distributions have faster life cycles and smaller body sizes than nonshifting species. Further temperature rises are likely to have profound impacts on commercial fisheries through continued shifts in distribution and alterations in community interactions.",Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+707609,"Long-term (1901-2012) changes in hydroclimatic variables in the 18 Indian subcontinental basins were examined with hydrology simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Changepoint analysis using the sequential Mann Kendall test showed two distinct periods (1901-47 and 1948-2012) for the domain-averaged monsoon season (June September) precipitation. Hydrologic changes for the entire water budget were estimated for both periods. In the pre-1948 period, a majority of the river basins experienced increased monsoon season precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), and surface water availability (as defined by total runoff). Alternatively, in the post-1948 period, monsoon season precipitation declined in 11 of the 18 basins, with statistically significant trends in one (the Ganges basin), and most (15) basins experienced significant warming trends. Additionally, in the post-1948 period, the mean monsoon season ET and surface water availability declined in eight (with significant declines in four) basins. The results indicate that changes in ET and surface water availability in the pre- and post-1948 periods were largely driven by the changes in the monsoon season precipitation rather than air temperature, despite prominent warming after 1975. Coupled modes of variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface water availability indicated El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the leading mode. The second mode was identified as the trend mode for surface water availability in the subcontinental river basins, which was largely driven by SST anomalies in the Indian and Atlantic Ocean regions. This indicates that surface water availability in India's subcontinental basins may be affected in the future in response to changes in large-scale climate variability.",Hydrologic Changes in Indian Subcontinental River Basins (1901-2012),1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+390850,"There is strong evidence that malaria was once indigenous to the UK, that global warming is occurring, and that human activity is contributing to global warming. Global warming will have a variety of effects, one of which will probably be the return of indigenous malaria.","Malaria in the UK: past, present, and future",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3312232,"Changes in the regional characteristics of temperature and precipitation can intensify the occurrence and severity of extreme events such as rain-on-snow-induced flooding, droughts and wildfires. Analyzing these climate variables in isolation without considering their interdependencies might result in severe underestimation of their combined effects. In addition, the assumption of linearity between temperature and precipitation does not represent the real physical processes that govern these climate variables. In this study, copula functions are used to describe the joint behaviour of temperature and precipitation across 15 ecozones of Canada at multiple temporal scales. The Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation is investigated using daily records to quantify changes in extreme precipitation with temperature increases. In addition, using historical records, dating back to 1910s, temporal changes in the dependence structure across southern Canada are analyzed using a non-stationary framework. Results show clear signs of accelerated warming and wetting over northern Canada while strong evidence of hot and dry conditions is found in the Prairie provinces. Analyses over seasonal and monthly scales indicate increases in warm-wet and hot-dry conditions in winter and summer, respectively. Non-stationary analyses reveal shifts towards warm and wet climate conditions for the majority of southern Canada. Considerable deviations from the theoretical CC scaling rate of 6.8% is observed for extreme precipitation over parts of Canada with super-CC scaling rates observed in northern Canada and sub-CC scaling rates in the majority of southern Canada.",Characterizing the temperature and precipitation covariability over Canada,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0
+2325398,"When Milankovitch cycles are preserved in the geologic record they provide a direct link between chronometer and climate change, and thus a remarkable opportunity to constrain the evolution of the surficial Earth System. The identification of such cycles has allowed exploration of the geologic record with unprecedented temporal resolution, and has spurred the development of a rich theoretical framework for climatic change. Accompanying these successes, however, has been a persistent skepticism: how does one reliably test for astronomical forcing/pacing in stratigraphic and paleoclimate data, especially when time is poorly constrained? From this perspective, it would seem that the merits and promise of astrochronology a Phanerozoic time scale measured in 20,000 to 400,000 year increments also serves as its Achilles heel, if the confirmation of such geologically short temporal rhythms defies rigorous hypothesis testing. The implications are substantial, since much of our understanding of paleoclimate change throughout the Cenozoic (and beyond) is firmly rooted in astrochronologic interpretation. In this study, a conceptual framework for assessing Earth System response to astronomical-insolation changes, and the propagation of that signal into the geologic record, is used as a guide to understand the nature of the problem of astrochronologic testing. This framework emphasizes three challenges contamination, stratigraphic distortion, and temporal calibration. A statistical optimization method (TimeOpt; Meyers, 2015) is formulated as a solution to these three challenges, providing an approach for astrochronologic testing that objectively evaluates time scale uncertainty while simultaneously identifying an optimal model for climate and depositional system response to astronomical forcing. New extensions to the technique are presented, allowing explicit reconstruction of distortions to the primary forcing that are known to be omnipresent in the stratigraphic record. To illustrate the utility of this approach, it is applied to five well-studied stratigraphic series throughout the Phanerozoic, supporting their astronomical origin, and yielding constraints on the evolution of the Earth System and the astronomical solutions themselves. Future directions that build on this foundation are discussed, including the utility of process-based null models, approaches for Earth System transfer function reconstruction, and mapping out ancient Solar System behavior and Earth-Moon history using the geologic archive of Milankovitch cycles. The TimeOpt approach recognizes astronomy, geochronology, paleoclimatology and depositional system reconstruction as a unified geoscientific inverse problem.",Cyclostratigraphy and the problem of astrochronologic testing,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1300048,"Regional drought frequency analysis was carried out in the Poyang Lake basin (PLB) from 1960-2014 based on three standardized drought indices: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI). Drought events and characteristics were extracted. A Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula was selected to construct the bivariate probability distribution of drought duration and severity, and the joint return periods (T (a) ) were calculated. Results showed that there were 50 (50 and 40) drought events in the past 55 years based on the SPI (SPEI and SPDI), and 9 (8 and 10) of them were severe with T (a) more than 10 years, occurred in the 1960s, the 1970s and the 2000s. Overall, the three drought indices could detect the onset of droughts and performed similarly with regard to drought identification. However, for the SPDI, moisture scarcity was less frequent, but it showed more severe droughts with substantially higher severity and longer duration droughts. The conditional return period (Ts|d) was calculated for the spring drought in 2011, and it was 66a and 54a, respectively, based on the SPI and SPDI, which was consistent with the record. Overall, the SPI, only considering the precipitation, can as effectively as the SPEI and SPDI identify the drought process over the PLB under the present changing climate. However, drought is affected by climate and land-cover changes; thus, it is necessary to integrate the results of drought frequency analysis based on different drought indices to improve the drought risk management.","A comparative frequency analysis of three standardized drought indices in the Poyang Lake basin, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+718016,"We use data from the Nimbus-7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) for the 1978-1979 period together with data from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (UARS MLS) for the years 1993 to 1999, the Aura MLS for the years 2004 to 2011, and the Aura High Resolution Infrared Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) for the years 2005 to 2007 to examine ozone-temperature correlations in the upper stratosphere. Our model simulations indicate that the sensitivity coefficient of the ozone response to temperature (Delta ln(O-3)/Delta(1/T)) decreases as chlorine has increased in the stratosphere and should increase in the future as chlorine decreases. The data are in agreement with our simulation of the past. We also find that the sensitivity coefficient does not change in a constant-chlorine simulation. Thus the change in the sensitivity coefficient depends on the change in chlorine, but not on the change in greenhouse gases. We suggest that these and future data can be used to track the impact of chlorine added to the stratosphere and also to track the recovery of the stratosphere as chlorine is removed under the provisions of the Montreal Protocol.",Ozone temperature correlations in the upper stratosphere as a measure of chlorine content,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3322948,"Study region: The 69 km(2) Owabi catchment in Ghana. Study focus: The Soil-Water-Assessment-Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the hydro-climatic variability resulting from anthropogenic activities from 1986 to 2015. Specifically, the model simulated historic and projected stream-flow and water balance. Future stream-flow projections were modelled for three climate ensembles under three different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for two land-use categories. New hydrological insights for the region: Initial results revealed that forest and topography played major role in water loss, whereas evapotranspiration and surface runoff were the dominant modulating processes. Monthly calibration/validation of the model yielded acceptable results with NSE, R-2, PBIAS and RSA values of 0.66/0.67, 0.67/0.67, 8.2%/8.0% and 0.59/0.58 respectively. Uncertainty was fairly low and the model enveloped about 50% of the observed stream-flow. The RCP projections for all land use categories showed decreasing rainfall and streamflow trends. The model proved efficient in determining the catchment hydrology parameters and has potential to be used for further modelling of water quality and pollution to aid in effective water management.",The impact of climate and land-use changes on the hydrological processes of Owabi catchment from SWAT analysis,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1433874,"Using device simulations, we investigate the change of the temperature behavior of Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S)(2) solar cells. Our goal is to understand the behavior of the performance ratio (PR), normalized energy yield (Y), and the temperature coefficient of the open-circuit voltage as a contribution to the PR and Y. Therefore, we simulate temperature-dependent current-voltage (IVT) curves and apply weather data of a hot climate location to calculate PR and Y. For differently widened absorber band gap profiles, we observe an increase of the open circuit voltage leading to an enhancement of the relative temperature coefficient of the open circuit voltage and of the PR. In addition to that, we investigate the impact of three different barrier locations within the solar cell: at the back contact (a), at the hetero-interface buffer/absorber (b) and a conduction band barrier in the absorber space charge region (c). For all barrier locations, the PR improves with increasing barrier height. For (a) and (b), this improvement is accompanied by a power reduction at standard test conditions (STC) due to a fill factor reduction. In case (c), a small barrier improves STC power and the PR simultaneously. However, increasing barrier height beyond an optimum again leads to a decrease in STC power.","A simulation study on the impact of band gap profile variations and secondary barriers on the temperature behavior, performance ratio, and energy yield of Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S)(2) solar cells",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1299111,"Future sustainable management of fisheries will require resilience to the effects of environmental variability and climate change on stock productivity. In this study, we examined relationships between sea surface temperature(SST)in the region between Taiwan and the Sea of Japan, and annual recruitment of Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis: PBF) over the past 35 years. Spatial correlation maps showed that warmer SSTs south of Shikoku, in the East China Sea and in the Sea of Japan from summer to late fall were associated with above average recruitment. SST anomalies near larval and juvenile habitats were most strongly correlated with local air temperatures Generalized Additive Models predicting annual PBF recruitment from SST fields suggested that the influence of SST on recruitment was stronger than that of spawning stock biomass. Correlations between SST and recruitment likely reflect biological processes relevant to early juvenile habitat suitability. The influence of late fall SSTs could also be a result of varying availability of age-0 fish to the troll fishery; however, the relative importance of these processes was not clear. Despite these knowledge gaps, the strong predictive power of SST on PBF recruitment can allow more proactive management of this species under varying environmental conditions.",Regional-scale surface temperature variability allows prediction of Pacific bluefin tuna recruitment,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1300268,"Flow regimes have been fundamentally altered in many of the world's river systems. There is a need to restore components of natural flow variability to protect freshwater biodiversity. The Australian bass is a long-lived, catadromous percichthyid endemic to coastal drainages of south-eastern Australia. Little is known of the timing and magnitude of flows considered important for recruitment and growth of individuals in southern latitudes of the species range. Herein we generate nearly 50 years of otolith-derived recruitment and growth histories for Australian bass and relate these to hydrologic, climatic and demographic variables. We found that younger Australian bass grew fastest in years following a cooler spring, whereas the growth of older fish exhibited little response to temperature. Australian bass year class strength was positively related to high flows in spring and in a negative curvilinear way to spring temperature. A lack of suitable natural flows in spring may be responsible for little to no recruitment of Australian bass in the Genoa River over the past two decades. Based on our findings, the continuing trend of lower rainfall and higher temperatures, coupled with river regulation in some systems in the region, will likely result in depressed juvenile growth and prolonged periods of recruitment failure over the medium to longer term, with significant implications for the viability of populations.",Is climate change driving recruitment failure in Australian bass Macquaria novemaculeata in southern latitudes of the species range?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+226943,"The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998-2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1-15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1-15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could potentially be made several months ahead of imminent heat waves and cold spells.",Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+647900,"Mid to high-latitude marine ecosystems are characterized by strong intra-seasonal variability in productivity across multiple trophic levels. It is understood that climate variability, as well as projected climate change, is likely to cause substantial changes in the timing of key seasonal events, such as the spring phytoplankton bloom, dates of diapause for zooplankton, or nesting dates in seabirds. However, it is not well known how changes in timing across multiple trophic levels will impact predator-prey relationships. Several mechanistic hypotheses have been put forth to explain changes in fish production in relation to phenological variability of prey, including Cushing's (1990; Adv Mar Biol 26:249-293) 'match-mismatch' hypothesis, yet there have been few tests of these ideas relative to ongoing oceanographic change. In this Theme Section, we present 9 papers that relate ocean climate variability and climate change to timing of key events for zooplankton, fish, and seabirds from northern hemisphere marine ecosystems. They cover phenological variability and consequences of timing changes for species of the California Current, Gulf of Alaska, NE Atlantic Ocean, Arctic Ocean and northern Japan Sea, all cold-water ecosystems, and highlight the importance of phenology as a key response variable, as well as the complexity of ecological relationships to be impacted by marine climate change. Multi-trophic level changes in phenology of species abundance and productivity are likely to have important consequences to marine ecosystem structure and function.","Marine ecosystems, climate and phenology: introduction",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+649123,"Few studies have explored temperature-mortality relationships in China, especially at the multi-large city level. This study was based on the data of seven typical, large Chinese cities to examine temperature-mortality relationships and optimum temperature of China. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the acute-effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality, and meta-analysis was used to merge data. Furthermore, the lagged effects of temperature up to 40 days on mortality and optimum temperature were analyzed using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We found that for all non-accidental mortality, high temperature could significantly increase the excess risk (ER) of death by 0.33% (95% confidence interval: 0.11%, 0.56%) with the temperature increase of 1 degrees C. Similar but non-significant ER of death was observed when temperature decreased. The lagged effect of temperature showed that the relative risk of non-accidental mortality was lowest at 21 degrees C. Our research suggests that high temperatures are more likely to cause an acute increase in mortality. There was a lagged effect of temperature on mortality, with an optimum temperature of 21 degrees C. Our results could provide a theoretical basis for climate-related public health policy.",Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+65674,"The geographic ranges of most species are expected to shift to higher elevations and latitudes in response to global warming. But species react to specific environmental changes in individualistic ways, and we are far from a detailed understanding of range-shifts. Summer temperature often limits the ranges of insects and plants, so many range-shifts are expected to track summer warming. I explore this potential range-limiting factor in a case study of a northwardly expanding American butterfly, Atalopedes campestris (Lepidoptera, Hesperiidae). This species has recently colonized the Pacific Northwest, USA, where the mean annual temperature has risen 0.8-1.8degreesC over the past 100 years. Using field transplant experiments across the current range edge, I measured development time, survivorship, fecundity and predation rates along a naturally occurring thermal gradient of 3degreesC. Development time was significantly slower outside the current range in eastern Washington (WA), as expected because of cooler temperatures there. Slower development would reduce the number of generations possible per year outside the current range, dramatically lowering the probability that a population could survive there. Differences in survivorship, fecundity and predation rate across the range edge were not significant. The interaction between summer and winter temperature appears to be crucial in defining the current range limit. The estimated difference in temperature required to affect the number of generations is greater than the extent of summer warming observed over the past century, however, and thus historically winter temperature alone probably limited the range in southeastern WA. Nonetheless, extraordinarily warm summers may have improved colonization success, increasing the probability of a range expansion. These results suggest that extreme climatic events may influence rates of response to long-term climate change. They also demonstrate that range-limiting factors can change over time, and that the asymmetry in seasonal warming trends will have biological consequences.",Field transplants reveal summer constraints on a butterfly range expansion,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2312748,"Whether anthropogenic mortality is additive or compensatory to natural mortality in animal populations has long been a question of theoretical and practical importance. Theoretically, under density-dependent conditions populations compensate for anthropogenic mortality through decreases in natural mortality and/or increases in productivity, but recent studies of large carnivores suggest that anthropogenic mortality can be fully additive to natural mortality and thereby constrain annual survival and population growth rate. Nevertheless, mechanisms underlying either compensatory or additive effects continue to be poorly understood. Using long-term data on a reintroduced population of the red wolf, we tested for evidence of additive vs. compensatory effects of anthropogenic mortality on annual survival and population growth rates, and the preservation and reproductive success of breeding pairs. We found that anthropogenic mortality had a strong additive effect on annual survival and population growth rate at low population density, though there was evidence for compensation in population growth at high density. When involving the death of a breeder, anthropogenic mortality was also additive to natural rates of breeding pair dissolution, resulting in a net decrease in the annual preservation of existing breeding pairs. However, though the disbanding of a pack following death of a breeder resulted in fewer recruits per litter relative to stable packs, there was no relationship between natural rates of pair dissolution and population growth rate at either high or low density. Thus we propose that short-term additive effects of anthropogenic mortality on population growth in the red wolf population at low density were primarily a result of direct mortality of adults rather than indirect socially-mediated effects resulting in reduced recruitment. Finally, we also demonstrate that per capita recruitment and the proportion of adults that became reproductive declined steeply with increasing population density, suggesting that there is potential for density-dependent compensation of anthropogenically-mediated population regulation.",Social and Demographic Effects of Anthropogenic Mortality: A Test of the Compensatory Mortality Hypothesis in the Red Wolf,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+161254,"Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountain top species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species' ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level.",Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1365498,"In this study, the severe flood case over East Asia during the 1998 summer was simulated using a regional climate model (SNURCM) with 60 km horizontal resolution (EX60), and the model performance in reproducing the extreme climate events was evaluated. An experiment with higher horizontal resolution of 20 km (EX20) was also performed in order to assess the impact of increased resolution on precipitation simulation of the severe flood. The model reproduced the severe precipitation events occurring in central China in June. In EX60, the temporal and spatial variations of the abnormal Meiyu monsoon fronts, which were well observed were also simulated reasonably except in southern China. The area-averaged daily precipitation and surface air temperatures were underestimated, but their temporal evolutions were in good agreement with observation. In the higher resolution experiment (EX20), simulated downward solar radiation, latent heat flux and convective rain were increased in the major severe rain area over the Yangtze River Basin. The increased precipitation in EX20, which was attributed mainly to the increase of convective rain, resulted in the enhanced precipitation intensity, but only slightly affected total precipitation amounts. The improvement in the higher horizontal resolution simulation appeared in precipitation resulting, in particular, from increased convective activity due to increased latent heat flux at the surface. Nevertheless, the model had significant precipitation bias in some areas with disagreement between the simulated precipitation patterns and distribution, and the observations. The model also had surface air temperature bias resulting from cold biases of the land surface model. With horizontal resolution increased to 20 km, the convective and non-convective precipitation was increased for the late afternoon and early evening time, increasing the total precipitation slightly.",Regional climate simulation of the 1998 summer flood over East Asia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+401160,"The composition and structure of tree stands near the timberline have been studied on different slopes and at different elevations in the Tylaisko-Konzhakovsko-Serebryanskii Massif, the North Urals. It has been found that the upper limits of tree stands with different degrees of canopy closure have risen considerably (by about 100 m of elevation) since the mid-19th century, although the formation of these stands started as early as the late 18th century. Woodless areas in the eastern part of the massif started to be colonized by Larix sibirica in the late 18th to early 19th centuries; those in the western part, by Picea obovata in the mid-19th century; and in the southern part, by Betula tortuosa in the late 19th century. Analysis of meteorological data provides evidence for warming and increasing humidity of the climate since the late 19th century. Favorable climatic changes that facilitated the expansion of the forest have taken place both in the summer (prolongation of the growing period) and in winter seasons (increase of air temperature and precipitation). The observed differences in the composition and dynamics of tree stands between the studied areas of the mountain range are most probably explained by different requirements of tree species for the depth of snow cover and the degree of soil freezing.",Climate changes and tree stand dynamics at the upper limit of their growth in the North Ural mountains,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+404008,"Extreme ambient temperature has been associated with increased daily mortality across the world. We describe the ambient temperature-mortality association for four capital cities in East Asia, Seoul, Beijing, Tokyo, and Taipei, and identify a threshold temperature for each city and the percent increase in mortality. We adapted generalized linear modeling with natural cubic splines (GLM + NS) to examine the association between daily mean apparent temperature (AT) and total mortality, as well as mortality due to respiratory (RD) and cardiovascular (CVD) causes in a threshold model. We conducted a time-series analysis adjusting for day of the week and long-term time trend. The study period differed by city. The threshold temperature for all seasons was estimated to be 30.1-33.5 degrees C. 31.3-32.3 degrees C, 29.4-30.8 degrees C. and 25.2 degrees-31.5 degrees C for Seoul, Beijing, Tokyo, and Taipei, respectively, on the same day. For the mean daily AT increase of 1 degrees C above the thresholds in Seoul, Tokyo, and Taipei, estimated percentage increases in daily total mortality were 2.7 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.2-3.1), 1.7 (95% Cl = 1.5-2.0), and 4.3 (95% Cl = 2.9-5.7), respectively. Beijing provided no total mortality counts. Estimated percentage increases were 2.7-10.5 for RD mortality, 1.1-9.3 for CVD mortality in 4 cities. This study identified increased mortality due to exposure to elevated AT. The importance of effects of AT and city-specific threshold temperatures suggests that analyses of the impact of climate change should take regional differences into consideration. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Ambient temperature and mortality: An international study in four capital cities of East Asia,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1439361,"Islands rimming Pacific atolls typically form narrow, low-lying lands that are commonly perceived to be particularly vulnerable to global changes such as sea-level rise. As these, low islands form the only habitable land for many island nations, understanding the character of shorelines, and the rates and controls that operate to bring about changes, is an issue of central importance. The purpose of this study is to unravel the characteristics of coastal change on atoll islands of the Gilbert Island chain of the equatorial Pacific nation of Kiribati, especially as they relate to autogenic shoreline processes and El Nino/Southern Oscillation variability. Integration of field observations, differential global positioning system data, historical aerial photographs and ultra-high resolution remote sensing images demonstrates the nature, spatial patterns and rates of change from 17 islands on Maiana and Aranuka atolls. The results illustrate that, between 2005 and 2009, ca 50% of the shorelines on these islands displayed a discernable shift in position; some shorelines were accretionary (at net rates up to ca 8 m year(-1)) and others were erosional (up to ca 18 m year(-1)). Long-term net rates of change on Maiana between 1969 and 2009 were lower than short-term net rates measured between 2005 and 2009. Both short-term and long-term observations illustrate some of the greatest change occur near terminations of the largest, north-south oriented islands, associated with longshore movement of coarse sand and gravel. Direct hits by tropical depressions and marked seasonality, factors interpreted as being essential in island growth and shoreline dynamics elsewhere, do not directly impact these equatorial atolls and can be eliminated as fundamental controls on shoreline dynamics. Similarly, observations over four years suggested that shoreline variability probably is not influenced directly by marked sea-level change, although a recent increase in the rates of shoreline change could reflect instability related to the cumulative effect of a long-term increase in the rate of sea-level rise. Within this framework of global change, local anthropogenic effects, autogenic shoreline processes and El Nino/Southern Oscillation-influenced wind and wave variability control many aspects of these dynamic shorelines. These results provide quantitative insights into the character and variability of rates of shoreline change, information essential for evaluating and mitigating the vulnerability of island nations such as Kiribati.","Nature and stability of atoll island shorelines: Gilbert Island chain, Kiribati, equatorial Pacific",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3888449,"Using numerical simulations of rapidly rotating Boussinesq convection in a Cartesian box, we study the formation of long-lived, large-scale, depth-invariant coherent structures. These structures, which consist of concentrated cyclones, grow to the horizontal scale of the box, with velocities significantly larger than the convective motions. We vary the rotation rate, the thermal driving and the aspect ratio in order to determine the domain of existence of these large-scale vortices (LSV). We find that two conditions are required for their formation. First, the Rayleigh number, a measure of the thermal driving, must be several times its value at the linear onset of convection; this corresponds to Reynolds numbers, based on the convective velocity and the box depth, ≳100. Second, the rotational constraint on the convective structures must be strong. This requires that the local Rossby number, based on the convective velocity and the horizontal convective scale, ≲0.15. Simulations in which certain wavenumbers are artificially suppressed in spectral space suggest that the LSV are produced by the interactions of small-scale, depth-dependent convective motions. The presence of LSV significantly reduces the efficiency of the convective heat transport. © Cambridge University Press 2014.",Large-scale vortices in rapidly rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+615068,"In 1996, a major unexplained outbreak of systemic Vibrio vulnificus infection erupted among Israeli fish market workers. The origins of this emergent infectious disease have not been fully understood. A possible link between climate change and disease emergence is being investigated. Meteorological service data from 1981, the earliest detection and reporting of V vulnificus for the time in Israel, to 1998 for two stations located within the main inland fish farm industry were analyzed. The 1996-1998 summers were identified as the hottest ever recorded in Israel in the previous 40 years. Time series of monthly minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures showed significant increase in the summer temperatures along the 18 years. The highest minimum temperature value was recorded in summer 1996. Lag correlation analysis revealed significant correlations between temperature values and hospital admission dates. The eruption appeared 25-30 days after the extreme heat conditions in summer 1996, at a lag of 3 weeks in summer 1997 while the results for 1998 were at a lag of less than a week. Higher significant results were detected for the daily minimum temperatures in summer 1996 compatible with the disease eruption. These findings suggest that high water temperature might have impacted the ecology of our study area and caused the emergence of the disease, as an effect of global climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.",Climate change and the emergence of Vibrio vulnificus disease in Israel,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1884482,"Feature of climate change and water regime for the middle-lower part of the basin of the Southern Bug River (in location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant) of the second half of the XX century and at the beginning of the XXI century are analyzed. Due to climate change, the increase of the average annual air temperature (on 0.16-0.28 degrees C per 10 year) and insignificant increase of annual amount of precipitation in this region (on 1-2 %) for period 1945-2017 occurred. However, more intense warming and negative tendency decrease of annual amount of precipitation (on 3-10 % and in summer on 20-30 %) for the last several decades at the meteostations Pervomaisk and Voznesensk were observed. Such regional climate change can lead, to a certain extent, to the decrease of water content of the reservoirs, due to anomaly increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitations in summer (July-August) and increased evaporation in basin of the Southern Bug River. Slight increase of the annual amount of precipitations (and in the cold season) in this part of the basin do not compensate such negative tendency. Rather complicated and dangerous hydrological situation in the basin of the Southern Bug River and reservoirs for period 2015-2017 due to the lowest water level by period of operation of reservoirs was due to the difficult weather conditions (aridization of climatic conditions) and increased water consumption (the runoff of the Southern Bug River in August-September was about 15 % less than the monthly norm). In the delta of the Southern Bug River, there is the unfavorable situation also. So, in the Bug Liman take place: increase of water salinity, decrease of depths, increase of water temperature, reduce of volume of fresh water flow from river intensification of the influx of salt water from the Black Sea. The regional climate change and runoff can lead to some complications in the further effective exploitation of SUNPP and probably there will be accompanied by negative environmental impact that should be avoided. Therefore, it is important to find a reasonable compromise between economic feasibility and preservation of the environment.",The tendencies of climate change and water regime of the middle-lower part in the basin of Southern Bug River (in the region of location of the South-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant),1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+497343,"In the face of environmental change, species can evolve new physiological tolerances to cope with altered climatic conditions or move spatially to maintain existing physiological associations with particular climates that define each species' climatic niche. When environmental change occurs over short temporal and large spatial scales, vagile species are expected to move geographically by tracking their climatic niches through time. Here, we test for evidence of niche tracking in bird species of the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, focusing on 53 species resurveyed nearly a century apart at 82 sites on four elevational transects. Changes in climate and bird distributions resulted in focal species shifting their average climatological range over time. By comparing the directions of these shifts relative to the centroids of species' range-wide climatic niches, we found that 48 species (90.6%) tracked their climatic niche. Analysis of niche sensitivity on an independent set of occurrence data significantly predicted the temperature and precipitation gradients tracked by species. Furthermore, in 50 species (94.3%), site-specific occupancy models showed that the position of each site relative to the climatic niche centroid explained colonization and extinction probabilities better than a null model with constant probabilities. Combined, our results indicate that the factors limiting a bird species' range in the Sierra Nevada in the early 20th century also tended to drive changes in distribution over time, suggesting that climatic models derived from niche theory might be used successfully to forecast where and how to conserve species in the face of climate change.",Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+387574,"Question What were the temporal patterns and rates of tree mortality in a recent episodic tree mortality event? Have similar events occurred in the past, and does climatic variability play a role in the disturbance regime? Location Intact Picea abies-dominated taiga in the Arkhangelsk region, northwestern Russia. Methods We reconstructed the past tree mortality and disturbance history by applying dendroecological methods in five forest stands and related these to climatic data. The role of other potential causes of tree mortality was assessed in a field inventory. Results The recent episode lasted from 1999 to 2004, influenced all stands studied, and killed on average 21% of trees with a diameter of over 10 cm at 1.3-m height. The annual tree mortality rate in the decades preceding this episode was 0.49%. During the past 200 years, the stands have experienced chronic small-scale disturbances, with several irregular disturbances of moderate severity. The recent episode was associated with abundant signs of the bark beetle Ips typographus. Furthermore, the timing of both the recent tree mortality episode and the past disturbance events was associated with dry summers. Conclusion The results indicate a connection between climatic variability and forest dynamics, the likely driving factors being droughts and bark beetles. In the context of the past 200 years, the recent episode was potentially at the higher end of the range of disturbance variability in terms of severity and spatial extent. This has ecological implications in a changing climate, potentially influencing ecosystem structure and long-term dynamics.",Tree mortality episodes in the intact Picea abies-dominated taiga in the Arkhangelsk region of northern European Russia,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2267803,"Climate extremes are often associated with increased human mortality and such association varies considerably with space and time. We therefore, aimed to systematically investigate the effects of temperature extremes, daily means and diurnal temperature variations (DTV) on mortality in the city of Varanasi, India during 2009-2016. Time series data on daily mortality, air quality (SO2, NO2, O-3 and PM10) and weather variables were obtained from the routinely collected secondary sources. A semiparametric quasi-Poisson regression model estimated the effects of temperature extremes on daily all-cause mortality adjusting nonlinear confounding effects of time trend, relative humidity and air pollution; stratified by seasons. An effect modification by age, gender and place of death as semi-economic indicator were also explored. Daily mean temperature was strongly associated with excess mortality, both during summer (5.61% with 95% CI: 4.69-6.53% per unit increase in mean temperature) and winter (1.53% with 95% CI: 0.88-2.18% per unit decrease in mean temperature). Daily mortality was found to be increased by 12.02% (with 95% CI: 4.21-19.84%) due to heat wave. The DTV has exhibited downward trend over the years and showed a negative association with all-cause mortality. Significant association of mortality and different metric of temperature extreme along with decreasing trend in DTV clearly indicate the potential impact of climate change on human health in the city of Varanasi. The finding may well be useful to prioritize the government policies to curb the factors that causes the climate change and for developing early warning system. (c) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Attributing mortality from temperature extremes: A time series analysis in Varanasi, India",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1285190,"The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. In this study, we evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 138 headwater subbasins located upstream of reservoirs across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24 degrees grid cell resolution. Four commonly used indices, including mean annual flow, annual center timing, 100-year daily high streamflow, and 10-year 7-day average low streamflow were used for evaluation. The results projected an increase in the high streamflow by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States (US) and a decrease in the low streamflow by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western US. In the eastern US, frequencies of both high and low streamflow were projected to increase in the majority of subbasins upstream of both hydropower and flood control reservoirs. Increased frequencies of both high and low streamflow events can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. This study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2320284,"We compiled data from 495 observations and 103 papers and carried out a meta-analysis of the responses of fine root biomass, production, decomposition, and morphology to precipitation increases and decreases. In addition, we evaluated the effects of plant life form, soil depth, and experiment duration on the responses of fine roots to precipitation changes. Our results confirmed that decreased precipitation limited fine root diameter and accelerated turnover. Increased precipitation stimulated fine root elongation and enhanced the fine root accumulation. The responses of fine roots to precipitation changes varied among plants of different life forms. Tree fine root production and decomposition and non-tree fine root diameter varied most strongly under decreased precipitation. Specific root length of non-tree fine roots was much higher than that of tree fine roots under increased precipitation. Decreased precipitation limited the growth of fine roots in 20-40 cm deep soil, whereas increased precipitation promoted the growth of fine roots in both shallow and deep soil layers. The responses of fine roots to decreased precipitation were affected by experiment duration. Results filled the gap of evaluation data on the effect of precipitation change on fine root morphology and dynamics, which are useful for better predicting the C cycle under precipitation change.",Effects of precipitation change on fine root morphology and dynamics at a global scale: a meta-analysis,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1505848,"The trophic structure of modern tropical benthic communities, especially reefs, is profoundly influenced by ambient nutrient levels and resultant predator characteristics. In oligotrophic regimes the presence of abundant specialist grazers promotes succession and yields climax-stage communities. Such communities produce the classic ''framework'' reef dominated by large, heavily calcified phototrophs and multiserial mixotrophs. These primary producers bear many anti-predator adaptations and have a marked preference for hard-substrates. Increasing nutrient levels favor a transition in the benthos from photo- and mixotrophs via benthic algae to soft-substrate communities of solitary or uniserial heterotrophs feeding on planktonic primary producers. Under such high nutrient conditions, small heterotrophs are perpetually superior competitors, thus maintaining assemblages which resemble pioneer stages. Here, the history of Phanerozoic reef-building is reassessed according to an analysis of trophic structure. Broad global patterns may be largely explained by changes in nutrient availability. Differing rates of oceanic circulation linked to climatic fluctuations and sea-level changes determined the range of trophic regimes available in shallow marine tropical habitats. Most Phanerozoic reefal buildups are revealed as soft-substrate dwelling heterotrophic communities and as such were not well-adapted to oligotrophic conditions: they were trophically quite unlike modern coral reefs and had markedly different environmental requirements. Prolonged phases when heavily calcified multiserial metazoans, although available, did not form framework reefs are postulated as times when few oligotrophic regimes were present in tropical shallow seas, i.e., most of the early Carboniferous, Permian and mid-late Cretaceous. Acquisition of mixotrophic nutrition allowed invasion of previously inaccessible oligotrophic environments, but current evidence suggests that photosymbiosis was not acquired by reef-building organisms until the early to mid-Mesozoic onwards, with the possible exception of the mid-Palaeozoic. This may have been in response to increasing predation pressure and appears to have been facilitated by the creation of extensive oligotrophic regimes. The resilience of TertiarY scleractinian coral reefs to climatic vicissitudes might be largely explained by the rise of anti-fouling grazers, especially fish, during this time.","NUTRIENTS, PREDATION AND THE HISTORY OF REEF-BUILDING",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1431544,"The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Nio teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Nio events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Nio events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).",Role of tropical atlantic SST variability as a modulator of El Nio teleconnections,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+141285,"Wildland fires are common in most areas of Spain, even in areas with a mesic climate. Weather plays a crucial role in fire, but the relationship between fire incidence and meteorological variables is not usually strong. Assessing the relationship between meteorological variables and fire from the recent past can eventually aid in evaluating fire risk in future climate scenarios. In this paper we report on the relationships between the number of fires and the surface burned per year and several yearly temperature and precipitation variables for three areas of Spain: North, Central and the Levant. The three areas differ in their climate as well as in the ignition sources. We used the fire records from 1974 to 1988. The relationships between meteorological and fire variables was tested by least square simple regression models. Our results show that some of the meteorological variables used are good predictors of either number of fires or surface burned in all three areas. The northern area was better related to meteorological variables than the Levant. Fire occurrence in the northern and central areas was mainly related to temperature variables whereas in the Levant it was related to precipitation variables. Fires caused by pasture burning or by lightning had less relationship to meteorological variables than those caused accidentally. Fires caused by arsonists were very highly related to meteorological variables in all three areas. Fires caused by unknown sources had a similar pattern of relationships to that found for arsonist-caused fires. Our study indicates that the degree of relationship between meteorological variables and fire occurrence may be related to the current climate and weather patterns of a given area.",SENSITIVITY OF FIRE OCCURRENCE TO METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES IN MEDITERRANEAN AND ATLANTIC AREAS OF SPAIN,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+487707,"Purpose - This paper aims to document indigenous knowledge systems (IKS) used for short- and long-range rainfall prediction by small holder farmers in three communities of Guruve District, in north-eastern Zimbabwe. The study also investigated farmers' perceptions of contemporary forecasts and the reliability of both IKS and contemporary forecasts. Design/methodology/approach - Data were collected among small holder farmers in Guruve District using household interviews and focus group discussions in three wards in the district, grouped according to their agro-climate into high and low rainfall areas. To get an expert view of the issues, key informant interviews were held with key agricultural extension personnel and traditional leaders. Findings - Results obtained showed show high dependence on IKS-based forecasts in the district. Over 80 per cent of the farmers used at least one form of IKS for short- and long-range forecasting, as they are easily understood and applicable to their local situations. Tree phenology, migration and behaviour of some bird species and insects, and observation of atmospheric phenomena were the common indicators used. Tree phenology was the most common with over 80 per cent of farmers using this indicator. While some respondents ( 60 per cent) viewed forecasts derived from IKS as more reliable than science-based forecasts, 69 per cent preferred an integration of the two methods. Originality/value - The simplicity and location specificity of IKS-based forecasts makes them potentially useful to smallholder farmers, climate scientists and policymakers in tracking change in these areas for more effective climate change response strategies and policymaking.",The use of indigenous knowledge systems for short and long range rainfall prediction and farmers' perceptions of science-based seasonal forecasts in Zimbabwe,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+773913,"In order to assess the strength of the water vapour feedback within Arctic climate change, 15 years of the total column-integrated density of water vapour (TCWV) from the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS) are analysed. Arctic TCWV distribution, trends, and anomalies for the 2001-2015 period, broken down into seasons and months, are analysed. Enhanced local spring TCWV trends above the terrestrial Arctic regions are discussed in relation to land snow cover and vegetation changes. Upward TCWV trends above the oceanic areas are discussed in lien with sea ice extent and sea surface temperature changes. Increased winter TCWV (up to 40%) south of the Svalbard archipelago are observed; these trends are probably driven by a local warming and sea ice extent decline. Similarly, the Barents/Kara regions underwent wet trends (up to 40%), also associated with winter/fall local sea ice loss. Positive late summer TCWV trends above the western Greenland and Beaufort seas (about 20%) result from enhanced upper ocean warming and thereby a local coastal decline in ice extent. The Mackenzie and Siberia enhanced TCWV trends (about 25%) during spring are found to be associated with coincident decreased snow cover and increased vegetation, as a result of the earlier melt onset. Results show drier summers in the Eurasia and western Alaska regions, thought to be affected by changes in albedo from changing vegetation. Other TCWV anomalies are also presented and discussed in relation to the dramatic decline in sea ice extent and the exceptional rise in sea surface temperature.",Enhanced MODIS Atmospheric Total Water Vapour Content Trends in Response to Arctic Amplification,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+200247,"The study focuses on the impacts of climate variability and change on maize yield in Mt. Darwin District. The rainfall and temperature data for the period under study that is from 1992 to 2012 were obtained from Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe at daily resolution while crop yield data were obtained from Department of Agricultural, Technical and Extension Services (AGRITEX) and Zimbabwe Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT) at seasonal/yearly resolution. In order to capture full rainfall seasons, a year was set to begin on 1 June and end on 31 July the next year. Yearly yield, temperature and rainfall data were used to compute time series analysis of rainfall, temperature and yield. The relationship between temperature, rainfall, quality of season (start, cessation, dry days, wet days and length) and yield was also investigated. The study also investigated the link between meteorological normal and maize yield. The study revealed that temperature is rising while rainfall is decreasing with time hence increasing risk of low maize yield in Mt. Darwin. Correlation between maize yield was higher using a non-linear (R (2) = 0.630) than a linear regression model (R (2) = 0.173). There was a very high correlation between maize yield and number of dry days (R = -0.905) as well as between maize yield and length of season (R = 0.777). We also observed a strong correlation between percentage normal rainfall and percentage normal maize yield (R (2) = 0.753). This was also agreed between rainfall tessiles and maize yield tessiles as 50 % of the seasons had normal and above normal rainfall coinciding with normal and above normal maize yield. Of the 21 seasons considered, only one season had above normal rainfall while maize yield was below normal. The study concluded that there is a strong association between meteorological normal and maize yield in a rain-fed agricultural system. Climate information remains crucial to agricultural productivity hence the need to train farmers to access the information and use it for the benefit of their activities.",Investigating the implications of meteorological indicators of seasonal rainfall performance on maize yield in a rain-fed agricultural system: case study of Mt. Darwin District in Zimbabwe,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+40563,"The hydrological sensitivity of a northern Canadian mountain basin to change in temperature and precipitation was examined. A physically based hydrological model was created and included important snow and frozen soil infiltration processes. The model was discretized into hydrological response units in order to simulate snow accumulation and melt regimes and basin discharge. Model parameters were drawn from scientific studies in the basin except for calibration of routing and drainage. The model was able to simulate snow surveys and discharge measurements with very good accuracy. The forcing inputs of the hourly air temperatures and daily precipitation were scaled linearly to examine the model sensitivity to conditions included in a range of climate change scenarios: warming of up to 5 degrees C and change in precipitation of +/- 20%. The results show that peak seasonal snow accumulation, snow season length, evapotranspiration, runoff, peak runoff, and the timing of peak runoff have a pronounced sensitivity to both warming and precipitation change, where the impact of warming is partly compensated for by increased precipitation and dramatically enhanced by decreased precipitation. The snow regime, including peak snow accumulation, snow-free period, intercepted snow sublimation, and blowing snow transport, was most sensitive to temperature, and the impact of a warming of 5 degrees C could not be compensated for by a precipitation increase of 20%. However, basin discharge was more sensitive to precipitation, and the impact of warming could be compensated for by a slight increase in precipitation. The impacts of 5 degrees C warming with a +/- 20% change in precipitation resulted in snow accumulation, runoff, and peak streamflow decreasing by from one half to one fifth and the snow-free period lengthening by from 46 to 60 days; in both cases, the smaller change is associated with increased precipitation and the larger change with decreased precipitation. These results show that mountain hydrology in Northern Canada is extremely sensitive to warming, that snow regime is more sensitive to warming than streamflow and that changes in precipitation can partly modulate this response. Copyright (C) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",Hydrological sensitivity of a northern mountain basin to climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2321752,"As a part of an ongoing project on the role of microbes in the biogeochemistry of Majorcan caves, the species diversity of microbial communities present in cave pools of anchialine waters in the Cova des Pas de Vallgornera (Mallorca, Western Mediterranean) is investigated by a culture-dependent method. Two-hundred and forty-eight strains isolated from this characteristic littoral karst cave environment are identified by whole-cell-MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry and phylogenetically by 16S rRNA gene sequences. Total cell counts and species diversity of the bacterial communities decrease with the distance to the entrance of the cave and to the sea. Strains are mainly identified as members of the Gammaproteobacteria and Actinobacteria. Around 20% of the isolates are able to precipitate carbonates. Calcite is the predominant phase, growing in all the precipitates, although struvite is also found in one Pseudomonas and in one Aspergillus cultures. Differences in crystal habit and growth are observed according to the bacterial species promoting the precipitates. Bacteria associated with multicolored ferromanganese deposits, present in several parts of the cave, are also studied and are identified as Pseudomonas benzenivorans and Nocardioides luteus. The preponderance of Pseudomonas species and the possible contribution of bacteria in calcite deposition are discussed.","Microbial communities in a coastal cave: Cova des Pas de Vallgornera (Mallorca, Western Mediterranean)",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+687142,"Catchment development has been identified as a potentially major cause of streamflow change in many river basins in India. This research aims to understand changes in the Himayat Sagar catchment (HSC), India, where significant reductions in streamflow have been observed. Rainfall and streamflow trend analysis for 1980-2004 shows a decline in streamflow without significant changes in rainfall. A regression model was used to quantify changes in the rainfall-runoff relationship over the study period. We relate these streamflow trends to anthropogenic changes in land use, groundwater abstraction and watershed development that lead to increased ET (Evapotranspiration) in the catchment. Streamflow has declined at a rate of 3.6 mm/y. Various estimates of changes in evapotranspiration/irrigation water use were made. Well inventories suggested an increase of 7.2 mm/y in groundwater extractions whereas typical irrigation practices suggests applied water increased by 9.0 mm/y, while estimates of evapotranspiration using remote sensing data showed an increasing rate of 4.1 mm/y. Surface water storage capacity of various small watershed development structures increased by 2 mm over 7 years. It is concluded that the dominant hydrological process responsible for streamflow reduction is the increase in evapotranspiration associated with irrigation development, however, most of the anthropogenic changes examined are interrelated and occurred simultaneously, making separating out individual impacts very difficult.","Relating Trends in Streamflow to Anthropogenic Influences: A Case Study of Himayat Sagar Catchment, India",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+790414,"Purpose The study aimed to evaluate the environmental impacts of used lubricating oil (ULO) recovery in the largest oil consumer country in Africa, Egypt. The main questions were: What are the impacts of the different waste management strategies for the recovery of used lubricating oil and which waste management strategy is more eco-friendly? Methods Life cycle assessment (LCA) was employed to model the environmental impacts of the two waste management approaches for used lubricating oil recovery in Egypt: recycling by re-firing and recovery by co-firing. The model was applied to assess the impacts of one of the largest ULO recovery units in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the only operating unit in Egypt. The following impact categories were included: global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), eutrophication potential (EP), carcinogens potential (CP), ecotoxicity potential (ETP), respiratory inorganic formation potential (RIFP), respiratory organic formation potential (ROFP), radiation potential (RP), ozone layer depletion (OLD), mineral depletion (MD), land use (LU) and fossil fuel depletion (FFD). Results and discussion Results indicated that recycling by re-refining strategy is more environment-friendly. De-asphalting, de-aromatization and de-waxing processes are the main processes that affect the environmental impacts of lubricating oil production in both strategies, due to the use of hazard materials and toxic solvents in these processes. Fuel gas and fuel oil used as a fuel in the refinery and power units are the main contributors affecting the environmental impacts in case of recycling by re-refining strategy. The highest impacts were detected on FFD, followed by RIFP, GWP, AP, EP, ETP and CP in both strategies; no impacts were detected on RP, OLD and MD. Conclusions It can be concluded that recycling by re-refining of ULO is the more eco-friendly approach. This strategy is more energy conservative, saves a diminishing fossil fuel resource and reduces burdens on the environment. ULO containing high percentages of additive remnants such as viscosity index improvers and pour point depressants which represents a valuable resource and its proper management should be given the most attention.",Life cycle assessment of waste strategies for used lubricating oil,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+231024,"This study asks whether sub-national inequalities in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions mirror international patterns in carbon inequality using the case study of China. Several studies have examined global-level carbon inequality; however, such approaches have not been used on a sub-national scale. This study examines inter-provincial inequality in CO2 emissions within China using common measures of inequality (coefficient of variation, Gini Index, Theil Index) to analyze provincial-level data derived from the IPCC reference approach for the years 1997-2007. It decomposes CO2 emissions inequality into its inter-regional and intra-regional components. Patterns of per capita CO2 emissions inequality in China appear superficially similar to, though slightly lower than, per capita income inequality. However, decomposing these inequalities reveals different patterns. While inter-provincial income inequality is highly regional in character, inter-provincial CO2 emissions inequality is primarily intra-regional. While apparently similar, global patterns in CO2 emissions are not mirrored at the subnational scale. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Carbon inequality at the sub-national scale: A case study of provincial-level inequality in CO2 emissions in China 1997-2007,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1300771,"Impact of high temperature stress on crop growth and productivity is one key concern with respect to crop production and food security under climate change. Due to the complexity and diversity of crop characteristics and farmers' management practices, as well as the difficulties in quantifying those agronomic management practices at reasonable temporal and spatial scales, crop responses to heat stress at a regional scale have not been properly assessed yet. In this study, we used remote-sensing data to investigate the responses of growth duration and leaf area index (LAI) of winter wheat to extreme high temperature during reproductive growing stage in the North China Plain from 2001 to 2008. Growing degree days above 0 degrees C (GDD) from heading to maturity was used to represent average temperature of growing environment, and the extreme temperature ( > 34 degrees C) degree days (EDD) was used as an indicator for heat stress. We detected statistically significant shortening of reproductive growing duration due to increase in GDD and EDD at both site and regional scales. We also found acceleration of leaf senescence under warmer environment, as well as considerable damages to leaf area by extremely high temperatures according to LAI values from remote-sensing data. Our results present the explicit patterns of crop responses to heat stress at different spatial scales and periods, indicating the complexity of the impacts of extreme events. Moreover, we highlighted that exposure, vulnerability and adaptation all should be considered in evaluating the impacts of extreme events. In addition, our findings suggest great potential for improving regional crop growth monitoring and yield prediction through assimilating remote-sensing data into mechanistic crop simulation models.",Impacts of heat stress on leaf area index and growth duration of winter wheat in the North China Plain,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+694549,"The effects of climate change on biodiversity have emerged as a dominant theme in conservation biology, possibly eclipsing concern over habitat loss in recent years. The extent to which this shifting focus has tracked the most eminent threats to biodiversity is not well documented. We investigated the mechanisms driving shifts in the southern range boundary of a forest and snow cover specialist, the snowshoe hare, to explore how its range boundary has responded to shifting rates of climate and land cover change over time. We found that although both forest and snow cover contributed to the historical range boundary, the current duration of snow cover best explains the most recent northward shift, while forest cover has declined in relative importance. In this respect, the southern range boundary of snowshoe hares has mirrored the focus of conservation research; first habitat loss and fragmentation was the stronger environmental constraint, but climate change has now become the main threat. Projections of future range shifts show that climate change, and associated snow cover loss, will continue to be the major driver of this species' range loss into the future.",Climate change surpasses land-use change in the contracting range boundary of a winter-adapted mammal,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1840026,"In this article we analyze a set of geographically-specific indicators of African water scarcity. These indicators at 6' (longitude x latitude) spatial resolution show that a significant fraction of the African population (40%) and its associated water demands are located in water-scarce regions with <100 mm yr(-1) runoff. The same fraction of African agricultural land is exposed to a climate where potential evapotranspiration exceeds annual rainfall. These areas show a large degree of intra- and interannual variability in available water supply. Consequently, agricultural demand defines the aggregate water use for the continent. We anticipate that much of this demand is non-sustainable. Paradoxically, the mean annual relative water use stress index for most of the African population is low. To some degree, chronic seasonal shortages of water may be more critical; 200 million people (30%) are exposed to water stress for more than 10 months per year. River corridor discharge is critical in augmenting local runoff in and regions, reducing the impact of climate variability, and improving access to water supply. This study demonstrates emerging capabilities from the geophysical side of the water scarcity question. A much-needed interaction between the biogeophysical and socioeconomic approaches is still of urgent necessity.",Geospatial approach to assessing water stress in Africa,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+622104,"Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species' persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010-2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median > 60 days above threshold for > 50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18-85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As downscaled climate models are becoming widely available, we conclude that similar assessments at management-relevant scales will improve the scientific basis for resource management decisions.",Coupled Downscaled Climate Models and Ecophysiological Metrics Forecast Habitat Compression for an Endangered Estuarine Fish,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1804297,"The last three decades have witnessed a large expansion in the data base on polar lakes. However, despite the greater logistic problems of Working in the Antarctic there is a much greater data base on these systems compared to the Arctic. Arctic lakes have more complex plankton communities comparable to those seen in lower latitudes. Antarctic lakes have truncated food chains with no fish, few or no zooplankton and a dominance of the microbial loop. Generally primary production is higher in the Arctic and this is largely attributable to higher temperatures in these systems and a longer growing season. Despite a more favourable light climate in their water columns Antarctic lakes are usually extremely unproductive. Survival strategies also differ and this is related to the time available for growth in the summer. The Antarctic summer is very short and the most successful organisms function throughout the year, so that they enter the summer as actively growing populations. Mixotrophy is an important strategy among the protozoa. Year round data sets show that in Antarctica productivity continues through the winter months. In snow-covered Arctic lakes no significant activity is apparent during winter, and even in spring light attenuation though snow and ice-cover is so high that primary production is not measureable. The limited evidence suggests that in the Arctic organisms,shut down' their activity during winter. The Antarctic is facing elevated UV radiation in spring in summer, and both polar regions are suffering the impact of global warming. The impacts of these changes need to be assessed. The future offers great opportunities to apply remote sensing to limnological investigations, the application of e-science and the exploitation of the biotechnological potential of polar micro-organisms.","Polar limnology, the past, the present and the future",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+668942,"Phenological and physiological responses of plants to climate change are key issues to understand the global change impact on ecosystems. To evaluate the species-specific responses, a soil-warming experiment was conducted for seven understory species having various leaf habits in a deciduous forest, northern Japan; one evergreen shrub, one semi-evergreen fern, one summer-deciduous shrub, and four summer-green herbs. Soil temperature in the warming plots was electrically maintained 5 degrees C higher than control plots. Responses of leafing phenology highly varied among species: new leaf emergence of the evergreen shrub was delayed; senescence of overwintering leaves of the semi-evergreen fern was accelerated resulting in the shift to deciduousness; leaf shedding of the summer-deciduous shrub was accelerated. Among four summer-green species, only an earliest leaf-out species advanced growth initiation, but the period of growth season was not changed. Physiological responses to soil warming were also highly species-specific: the warming treatment increased the photosynthetic activity of the summer-deciduous shrub and one summer-green species, decreased that of the semi-evergreen fern, while other species did not show any changes in photosynthetic traits. Totally, the soil warming impacts on understory plants was apparent in spring. It was suggested that modification of snow conditions is important issue especially for plants with overwintering leaves. Responses of understory vegetation to climate change may highly vary depending on the composition of leaf habits in the cool-temperate forests. (C) 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.",Responses of leafing phenology and photosynthesis to soil warming in forest-floor plants,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+462789,"Pampean lakes are characterised by the alternation of flood and drought periods, but little is known about its effects on fish assemblage in an extended temporal scale. This study analyses the temporal variability of the fish assemblage in ChascomA(0)s Lake, and discusses the role of temperature and precipitation as potential drivers of fish composition shifts. Data acquisition was based on experimental fishing performed from 1999 to 2013 and from historical fishing records. Two alternative fish assemblage configurations were identified by cluster analysis. Odontesthes bonariensis, Parapimelodus valenciennis and Cyphocharax voga were the dominant species, which accounted for 70-80% of the relative abundance. The species O. bonariensis showed temporal fluctuations in its representativeness, changing from dominant to almost absent, whereas C. voga and P. valenciennis changed their abundance following a similar pattern along time. When historical data were considered, Platanichthys platana appeared as the fourth most relevant species. Precipitation, critical temperatures and fish mortalities were identified as the main drivers of species abundance shifts. This study highlights the importance of long-term assessments to understand the influence of climatic factors and the need to maintain or restore natural ecological processes as the basis to support dynamic sustainable fisheries in Pampean shallow lakes.","Fish assemblage of a Pampean shallow lake, a story of instability",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3977271,"Changes in land utilization may affect the hydrological function of a watershed. The land use impact on the hydrological response was assessed in the Babak watershed, one of the strategic watersheds on Lombok Island, West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. The hydrological response obtained from the analysis using the Soil and Water Analysis Tool considered discharge, runoff, water yield, erosion and sediment transported. Land use change impact was estimated in 2010 and 2013. The results showed that the hydrological response in the Babak watershed was not only influenced by land use change but also by other factors such as climate, soil, geology and topography. Copyright © 2019. This is an open access article, production and hosting by Kasetsart University of Research and Development institute on behalf of Kasetsart University.","Assessment of land use impact on hydrological response using Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) in Babak watershed, Lombok Island, Indonesia",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1283012,"Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting Rio Grande streamflow volume derived from snowmelt runoff in ways consistent with model-based projections of 21st-Century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the Upper Rio Grande, near its headwaters in southern Colorado, are assessed for water years 1958-2015. Results indicate winter and spring season temperatures in the basin have increased significantly, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased by approximately 25%, and streamflow has declined slightly in the April-July snowmelt runoff season. Small increases in precipitation have reduced the impact of declining snowpack on trends in streamflow. Changes in the snowpack-runoff relationship are noticeable in hydrographs of mean monthly streamflow, but are most apparent in the changing ratios of precipitation (rain+snow, and SWE) to streamflow and in the declining fraction of runoff attributable to snowpack or winter precipitation. The observed changes provide observational confirmation for model projections of decreasing runoff attributable to snowpack, and demonstrate the decreasing utility of snowpack for predicting subsequent streamflow on a seasonal basis in the Upper Rio Grande Basin.",Observed Changes in Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande Basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1286127,"This study presents an investigation of probabilistic relationships between streamflow and hydroclimatic variables (including precipitation, temperature and soil moisture) and the potential links to large-scale atmospheric circulation over Baden-Wurttemberg, Southwest Germany. First, the joint dependence between seasonal streamflow and hydroclimatic variables was established by using copulas. On the basis of the joint dependence structure, we estimated the probabilities of hydrological droughts and prolonged high-streamflow events conditioned upon two different scenarios (high and low) of hydroclimatic variables for various seasons over the study area. The results indicate that both precipitation and soil moisture are positively related to the streamflow variation in Baden-Wiirttemberg for each season and strongly impact the likelihoods of hydrological droughts and high-streamflow events. Temperature tends to have less impact on the streamflow variation, and an inverse connection between streamflow and temperature is found in spring and summer. Then, the connections between streamflow variability and large-scale atmospheric circulation in summer and winter were explored by using composite analysis. Although the atmospheric circulation patterns vary in each season, it can be found that in summer high streamflow anomalies over Baden-Wiirttemberg are related to a cyclonic activity over central Europe while low streamflow anomalies are linked to anticyclonic patterns over western Ireland. The high streamflow anomalies in winter are strongly impacted by the westerlies that play an important role in favoring warm and moist airstreams from the Atlantic Ocean towards the study area, while an opposite atmospheric pattern is found for the years with low streamflow anomalies. The presented probabilistic methodology could also be applied in other regions worldwide.","Probabilistic dependence between streamflow and hydroclimatic variables and the possible linkages to large-scale atmospheric circulation: A case study in Baden-Wiirttemberg, Southwest Germany",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+50549,"Probable changes in mean and extreme precipitation in East Africa are estimated from general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Bayesian statistics are used to derive the relative weights assigned to each member in the multimodel ensemble. There is substantial evidence in support of a positive shift of the whole rainfall distribution in East Africa during the wet seasons. The models give indications for an increase in mean precipitation rates and intensity of high rainfall events but for less severe droughts. Upward precipitation trends are projected from early this (twenty first) century. As in the observations, a statistically significant link between sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Indian Ocean and short rains (October-December) in East Africa is simulated in the GCMs. Furthermore, most models project a differential warming of the Indian Ocean during boreal autumn. This is favorable for an increase in the probability of positive Indian Ocean zonal mode events, which have been associated with anomalously strong short rains in East Africa. On top of the general increase in rainfall in the tropics due to thermodynamic effects, a change in the structure of the Eastern Hemisphere Walker circulation is consistent with an increase in East Africa precipitation relative to other regions within the same latitudinal belt. A notable feature of this change is a weakening of the climatological subsidence over eastern Kenya. East Africa is shown to be a region in which a coherent projection of future precipitation change can be made, supported by physical arguments. Although the rate of change is still uncertain, almost all results point to a wetter climate with more intense wet seasons and less severe droughts.",Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Africa under Global Warming. Part II: East Africa,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+635950,"The difference between actual and predicted growth rates for the conifer regions of northern California has been observed to vary with climatic changes. This study presents a method to investigate the relationship between growth and climate. Growth variations attributable to biological and cultural factors were removed by using the CACTOS (California conifer timber output simulator) program. The remaining variation was then associated with relative precipitation and temperature for the projected period and the CACTOS calibration period. Climatic data from the current and preceding years were considered. Elevation, stand density, and species were also investigated to determine their effects on the format and magnitude of the relationship between growth and climate. The results of this study, which included tests of stem analysis data taken over 15 years, indicate that growth variation is associated with the climatic changes of winter precipitation and summer temperatures for the region, in addition to biological and cultural factors. Winter precipitation and summer temperatures affect growth in the current and the subsequent years. Moreover, the relationship between climate and growth changes by densities and species. This study provides a basis for using short-term growth data to make long-term growth projections with growth adjusted to long-term climatic conditions.",The relationship between tree diameter growth and climate for coniferous species in northern California,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+103148,"The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is crucial for agriculture and water resources in India. The large spatial and temporal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) leads to flood and drought especially over northern plains of India, so quantitative and qualitative assessment of future projected rainfall will be important for policy framework. Evaluation of models performance in simulating rainfall and wind circulation of the Historical experiment (1961-2005) and its future projected change in RCPs (2006-2050) 4.5 and 8.5 in CMIP5 are carried out. In the Historical experiment, the model simulated rainfall is validated with observed rainfall of IMO (19612005) and GPCP (1979-2005) and only six (6) models BCC-CSM1.1(m), CCSM4, CESMI (BGC), CESM1(CAM5), CESM1(WACCM), and MPI-ESM-MR are found suitable in capturing ISMR and JJAS wind circulation at 850 & 200 hPa as in NCEP reanalysis, which shows anticyclonic circulation over Arabian Sea at 850 hPa and cyclonic circulation at 200 hPa along with excess and deficit rainfall over monsoon regions of NWI, NEI, WCI, CNI and PI at 99%&95% confidence levels. Future projected change ofJJAS wind shows anticyclonic circulation over Arabian Sea at 850 hPa and cyclonic circulation around 40 degrees N,70 degrees E-90 degrees E at 200 hPa which may be a possible cause of changes in JJAS rainfall over Indian regions. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Possible future projection of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) with the evaluation of model performance in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5),1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+577470,"Transitional wetlands occur along an estuarine salinity continuum bracketed by salt and nontidal freshwater wetlands. Long-term disturbances, such as sea level rise, may shift physical characteristics and hydrologic features of estuarine systems leading to transitional wetland habitat alterations, with unknown affects to associated biological communities. To begin to assess the ecological significance of a change in transitional wetland character, physicochemical parameters, and fish and invertebrate communities were surveyed seasonally in two extensive meso-oligohaline marshes, currently undergoing changes due to sea level rise. Faunal communities were similar between marshes, and included economically important species and forage fish. Temporal shifts in communities occurred seasonally and annually with high variability in species abundance among years. Drastic annual variability in salinity regimes due to extremes in precipitation occurred during the survey period driving shifts in biotic community composition.",Transitional Wetland Faunal Community Characterization and Response to Precipitation-Driven Salinity Fluctuations,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+699821,"The ensemble results of CMIP5 climate models that applied the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used to investigate climate change and temperature extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Uncertainty evaluation of climate projections indicates good model agreement for temperature but much less for precipitation. Results imply that climate warming in the MENA is strongest in summer while elsewhere it is typically stronger in winter. The summertime warming extends the thermal low at the surface from South Asia across the Middle East over North Africa, as the hot desert climate intensifies and becomes more extreme. Observations and model calculations of the recent past consistently show increasing heat extremes, which are projected to accelerate in future. The number of warm days and nights may increase sharply. On average in the MENA, the maximum temperature during the hottest days in the recent past was about 43 A degrees C, which could increase to about 46 A degrees C by the middle of the century and reach almost 50 A degrees C by the end of the century, the latter according to the RCP8.5 (business-as-usual) scenario. This will have important consequences for human health and society.",Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1853887,"In the Heihe River basin the annual average air temperature has increased by 1.4 degrees C between 1956 and 1996. The snow cover distribution and runoff regime in western China have been effected by globe warming and rising air temperature since 1960. Commonly, in this middle latitude mountainous region, the snow cover area contracts in winter because the accumulation period is shortened, while in the summer the snow cover extent increases due to additional snowfall days. Snowmelt runoff will increase incrementally on an annual basis, with higher melting rate, earlier thaw and longer melting interval. The permanent snowfield and glaciers play sensitive roles in maintaining the water resources supply in a warming climate. Based on the scenario of a 4 degrees C rise in air temperature, the simulated hydrograph will be discussed with respect to the hydrological year of 1986.",Impact of climate variability on snow cover redistribution and snowmelt runoff regimes in a mountainous region,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3978679,"Climate plays a key role in gastrointestinal diseases by affecting the environmental conditions of disease-transmitting agents through contributing to the quality of water and access to water resources. Moreover, the association between dysentery and climatic factors in Iran as a vulnerable country to climate change has not been clarified yet. The present retrospective cohort study was therefore conducted to investigate the relationship between climatic factors and dysentery in different climate zones of Iran and diverse age groups of men and women using secondary data. The longitudinal data were analyzed using tests of Poisson regression models. The present findings suggested that the average monthly maximum temperature and the number of rainy days are the most significantly correlated with the risk of dysentery in both genders; for instance, increases were observed in the risk of dysentery in women (IRR = 1.35, 95% CI:1.15,1.59, P < 0.001) and men (IRR = 1.18, 95% CI:1.00–1.40, P = 0.042) in the arid-cold climate (Bwk) with an increase in rainfall, and in Women (IRR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.05,1.08, P < 0.001) and men (IRR = 1.05, 95% CI:1.04,1.06, P < 0.001) in the semi-arid cold climate (Bsk) with an increase in the average monthly maximum temperature. Significant correlations were also observed between climate and dysentery in the children and adults aged over 65 years. The results suggest that dysentery is associated with different factors in women and men of different ages. Climatic factors were also found to differently affect the risk of dysentery in different climate zones. © 2020",The relationship between dysentery and climatic parameters in Iran,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+116551,"Understanding the role of climatic factors on crop yields is essential in predicting the future impact of climate change. In order to understand the influence of climatic factors on OSR, detailed farm-level panel data from 2566 farms across 67 counties of the 6 major OSR production regions in China, from the surveys conducted by the national OSR industry project between 2008 and 2013, were used to examine the contribution of changes in selected climatic variables between 2008 and 2013 to yield variation. Spatial and temporal patterns of the relationships between OSR yield, climatic factors were estimated together with the effects of farmer adaptation and management practices on yield variability. The analysis revealed that yields in the low-latitude production regions were more sensitive to temperature increases and likely to decline. Precipitation iwas the most influential factor on yield at the first two growth stages; temperature and sunshine hours were most important at the third and fourth growth stages, respectively. Labour input was the most influential management factor affecting yields compared with fertilizer and other inputs. The study concludes that projection of future climate change impacts will need inter alia to incorporate more sophisticated and detailed measures of climatic variables than simple means of temperature and precipitation, incorporating timing in relation to plant growth and yield.",The Effects of Weather on Oilseed Rape (OSR) Yield in China: Future Implications of Climate Change,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+593733,"The southeast coast of Australia is a global hotspot for increasing ocean temperatures due to climate change. The temperate incursion of the East Australian Current (EAC) is increasing, affording increased connectivity with the Great Barrier Reef. The survival of tropically sourced juveniles over the winter is a significant stumbling block to poleward range shifts of marine organisms in this region. Here we examine the dependence of overwintering on winter severity and prewinter recruitment for eight species of juvenile coral reef fishes which are carried into temperate SE Australia (30-37 degrees S) by the EAC during the austral summer. The probability of persistence was most strongly influenced by average winter temperature and there was no effect of recruitment strength. Long-term (138 years) data indicate that winter water temperatures throughout this region are increasing at a rate above the global average and predictions indicate a further warming of > 2 degrees C by the end of the century. Rising ocean temperatures are resulting in a higher frequency of winter temperatures above survival thresholds. Current warming trajectories predict 100% of winters will be survivable by at least five of the study species as far south as Sydney (34 degrees S) by 2080. The implications for range expansions of these and other species of coral reef fish are discussed.",Increasing ocean temperatures allow tropical fishes to survive overwinter in temperate waters,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1282948,"Increasing air temperatures due to long-term global climate change are predicted to exert substantial negative impacts on a majority of agricultural crops in the tropics, where most smallholder farms have a mixture of crops. Modification of the composition of cropping systems by incorporating crop species with greater growth and yield performance at higher temperatures is an important adaptation option. Accordingly, the principal objective of the present work was to demonstrate the feasibility of utilizing the differential temperature sensitivities of tropical crops to increase resilience of smallholder farming systems in the tropics to climate change, taking tomato and chilli in a case study. Tomato (cv. Thilina) and chilli (cv. MI-Green) crops were grown with adequate water, nutrients and recommended crop protection in a multi-locational field experiment traversing an attitudinal gradient (15-1200 m), which represented a gradient in seasonal mean temperature (T-a) ranging from 18.7 to 30 degrees C, over four consecutive seasons (Dec. 2012-Oct. 2014) in the humid- and sub-humid zones of Sri Lanka. Temperature response functions were estimated by linear regression of growth and yield parameters against Ta. Across the tested range of Ta, fruit yield of tomato showed a significant negative linear trend with increasing Ta (@ 2.83 Mg ha(-1) degrees C-1) while the pod yield of chilli showed a significant positive linear trend (@ 0.51 Mg ha(-1) degrees C-1). While the total biomass accumulation followed the same trend as fruit/pod yield, the harvest index of both crops showed significant negative trends, thus indicating the sensitivity of reproductive processes to increasing temperature. In tomato, fruit yield was significantly positively correlated to individual fruit weight, which decreased significantly with increasing temperature. In contrast, in chilli, pod yield was significantly positively correlated to number of pods per plant, which increased significantly with increasing temperature. These findings demonstrate the possibility of increasing the resilience of annual cropping systems in the tropical zone to future climate change by modifying their species composition via replacement of crops that are sensitive to higher temperatures (e.g. tomato) with those that are tolerant (e.g. chilli). The corresponding response functions to seasonal temperature extremes showed that biomass production, its partitioning to yield and yield of both crops were more sensitive to increases in seasonal mean daytime maximum temperature than to increases in night-time minimum temperature. However, yield responses to the diurnal temperature difference showed that differential sensitivity of the two crops to night-time minimum temperatures also played a significant role in determining their yield responses. These findings are useful in designing future cropping systems with greater resilience to climate change.",Exploitation of differential temperature-sensitivities of crops for improved resilience of tropical smallholder cropping systems to climate change: A case study with temperature responses of tomato and chilli,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+782787,"This study examines the 1500-year history of massive floods as recorded in the slackwater deposits of the Kherlen River basin in Mongolia. The study area is located along the Kherlen River in Baganuur district, Ulaanbaatar. Site HL1 has a flood frequency of 89 years and an accumulation rate of 1.2 mm/y over approximately 1500 years. Site HL2 has a flood frequency of 72.2 years and an accumulation rate of 1.46 mm/y during about 700 years. The range of calculated value for flood frequency and annual accumulation rate during the period of the 10th century to the early 20th century at site HL1 is entirely different from that in other periods. It is considered that the palaeohydrological environment of the study site during that time might have been influenced by climatic change as well as geomorphological and hydrological change. Based on the results of identification of discrete flooding and age dating (Cs-137 and C-14), the sedimentary layers of HL1 and HL2 were divided into 4 periods (period 1: 1960-2012, period 2: 970-1960, period 3: 533-970, period 4: 427-533) and 2 periods (period 1: 1960-2012, period 2: 1290-1960), respectively. The authors suggest that the past climate of the region was greatly influenced by the East Asia summer monsoon. It is suggested that the occurrence of the large-scale floods in eastern Mongolia was influenced by the strengthening and weakening of the summer monsoon due to climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.","The history of palaeoflood and palaeoclimate recorded in the flood deposits of the Kherlen River, Mongolia",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+277408,"In this study, we analyzed the drought variation trends in six subregions of the Loess Plateau over the past four decades. To do this, we used a new method wherein we combined the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model for simulating watershed hydrological processes and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for drought assessment and analysis. A new classified calibration procedure of climate characteristic coefficient. K. was introduced in the study to improve the traditional PDSI computation method. The results suggest that the total area affected by drought in subregions 1-3 located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River mainly exhibited downward trends during 1971-2010. As these domains are the principal sediment sources of the Yellow River, the decreasing trends in drought area could benefit to vegetation recover in these regions, which are key sites of ""Grain for Green"" project, and help to control the severe soil and water losses. However, subregions 4-6 located in the upper reaches of the Yellow River primarily experienced upward trends in the total drought area. These subregions are the main grain producing areas of the study region, and the increase in drought area may cause damage to agricultural production and regional food security. The spatial distribution of drought frequency increased from southeast to northwest on the Loess Plateau. Most areas of the subregions 4-6 of the plateau exhibited an upward trend in drought frequency as indicated by a Mann-Kendall test, and the upward trend will show persistent behavior in the future, according to a Hurst exponent analysis. Generally speaking, the drought hazard in the upper reaches of the Yellow River tended to be increasingly severe, while drought hazard in the middle reaches has relieved to certain extent over the past four decades. (C) 2012 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.",Drought variation trends in different subregions of the Chinese Loess Plateau over the past four decades,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+530265,"We studied winter climate influences on central European small herbivores by testing the prediction that direct physical effects of winter climate should be more pronounced in herbivores living above ground/snow than in subnivean/fossorial ones. Using correlation analysis and autoregressive modeling, we found that population growth rates of European hares, representing the former class of herbivores, are more efficiently predicted by the winter NAO index than those of common voles, representing the latter class of herbivores. We demonstrate that, whereas in hares the NAO index outperformed crop yield indices, used here as a proxy for plant production variability, it was crop yield indices that more effectively predicted population change in voles. These results suggest that the relative importance of direct and indirect effects of winter climate on herbivores may be related to their body size, the major determinant of above ground/snow or subnivean/ fossorial mode of life. © Inter-Research 2006.",Winter climate and plant productivity predict abundances of small herbivores in central Europe,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+899473,"Fisheries resources have existed on earth for centuries and their management has depended on the knowledge available to those that were, and are, entrusted with management responsibilities. Formal technical and traditional knowledge have formed the basis for the formulation of fisheries management approaches. In the midst of global fisheries crises, such as fish stock over-exploitation and effects of climate change on fisheries, there has been great interest in fostering sustainable fisheries management as a means to improve the capacity of fishing communities to adapt to the changes. However, the approaches to achieve sustainable fisheries management in Malawi have not adequately involved local people who have acquired traditional knowledge through their direct experience with nature. This article reviewed indigenous knowledge used in fisheries management within the wider context of livelihood systems. The purpose of the review was two pronged: first to document the indigenous knowledge used in fisheries management in order to offer insights of its value to biological scientists and fisheries managers; second, to demonstrate the value of indigenous knowledge as a lens through which biological scientists can look when managing fishery resources. It argues that policies that seek to support sustainable fisheries management need to build on a better understanding of the wide range of knowledge systems acquired by the fisher-folk. The article drew from theories of conservation; information was gathered through literature review and direct consultations with fishing communities in Malawi on indigenous knowledge in fisheries.",Understanding indigenous knowledge: Its role and potential in fisheries resources management in Malawi,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+467834,"Conservation managers and policy makers require models that can rank the impacts of multiple, interacting threats on biodiversity so that actions can be prioritized. An integrated modelling framework was used to predict the viability of plant populations for five species in southern California's Mediterranean-type ecosystem. The framework integrates forecasts of land-use change from an urban growth model with projections of future climatically-suitable habitat from climate and species distribution models, which are linked to a stochastic population model. The population model incorporates the effects of disturbance regimes and management actions on population viability. This framework: (1) ranks threats by their relative and cumulative impacts on population viability, such as land-use change, climate change, altered disturbance regimes or invasive species, and (2) ranks management responses in terms of their effectiveness for land protection, assisted dispersal, fire management and invasive species control. Too-frequent fire was often the top threat for the species studied, thus fire reduction was ranked the most important management option. Projected changes in suitable habitat as a result of climate change were generally large, but varied across species and climate scenarios; urban development could exacerbate loss of suitable habitat.",Linking spatially explicit species distribution and population models to plan for the persistence of plant species under global change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+207198,"This paper develops a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model, integrating high-frequency electricity dispatch and trade decisions, to study the effects of electricity transmission infrastructure (TI) expansion and renewable energy (RE) penetration in Europe for gains from trade and carbon dioxide emissions in the power sector. TI can benefit or degrade environmental outcomes, depending on RE penetration: it complements emissions abatement by mitigating dispatch problems associated with volatile and spatially dispersed RE but also promotes higher average generation from low-cost coal if RE production is too low. Against the backdrop of European decarbonization and planned TI expansion, we find that emissions increase for current and targeted year-2020 levels of RE production and decrease for year-2030 targets. Enhanced TI yields sizeable gains from trade that depend positively on RE penetration, without creating large adverse impacts on regional equity: (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.","Cross-country electricity trade, renewable energy and European transmission infrastructure policy",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2389365,"Humans interact with the oceans in diverse and profound ways. The scope, magnitude, footprint and ultimate cumulative impacts of human activities can threaten ocean ecosystems and have changed overtime, resulting in new challenges and threats to marine ecosystems. A fundamental gap in understanding how humanity is affecting the oceans is our limited knowledge about the pace of change in cumulative impact on ocean ecosystems from expanding human activities - and the patterns, locations and drivers of most significant change. To help address this, we combined high resolution, annual data on the intensity of 14 human stressors and their impact on 21 marine ecosystems over 11 years (2003-2013) to assess pace of change in cumulative impacts on global oceans, where and how much that pace differs across the ocean, and which stressors and their impacts contribute most to those changes. We found that most of the ocean (59%) is experiencing significantly increasing cumulative impact, in particular due to climate change but also from fishing, land-based pollution and shipping. Nearly all countries saw increases in cumulative impacts in their coastal waters, as did all ecosystems, with coral reefs, seagrasses and mangroves at most risk. Mitigation of stressors most contributing to increases in overall cumulative impacts is urgently needed to sustain healthy oceans.",Recent pace of change in human impact on the world's ocean,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+491108,"The major part of the Netherlands consists of a low-lying river delta which is very sensitive to hydrological conditions in the North-Western part of the European continent. The rivers Rhine, Meuse and Scheldt carry through this delta to the North Sea annually nearly 100 km 3 of fresh water. This water originates from a drainage basin of about 185 000 km 2, which is 6 times the country area. The present geography of the Netherlands has largely been shaped by this river inflow and by the sediments which are carried along. Interaction of these fluxes with North Sea hydrodynamics in a period of rising sea level has produced large lowlands, which in the past millennium have been reclaimed for agricultural, urban and industrial purposes. At present an extended hydrological infrastructure is required to contain high waters and to keep ground water and surface water tables permanently under control. Otherwise more than half of the Netherlands would be permanently or frequently flooded. In the Netherlands water management is a matter of permanent concern. The abundance of water is at the same time source of prosperity and source of vulnerability. Waterways for shipping and water supply for agriculture, industry and domestic use are essential resources for economy. The Dutch wetlands also represent a great environmental value. Changes in water supply and river discharge therefore have important impacts. More frequent occurrence of low discharge is detrimental to fluvial transport and agriculture. More frequent occurrence of high river discharge affects the safety of population against flooding and causes economical damage. Additional sedimentation raises the river beds with respect to the surrounding lowlands with possible consequences for safety and river management. The previous considerations form the basis for the sub-theme REGIONAL HYDROLOGY of the Dutch climate change research programme NRP. Seven research projects dealing with different aspects of the hydrological system have been selected in order to study the vulnerability of the Netherlands to climate related hydrological change. Although not all components of the hydrological system could be studied, the most important processes and relationships in the hydrological system have been addressed (see Figure 1). In the present phase of research most of the results still have an indicative character. Some projects have been completed, but others have started only recently. Nevertheless several important conclusions already emerge, which are summarized below:Recent scenarios indicate greater regional climate changes than assumed in the past. Most remarkable are the strong expected increase in winter precipitation and the increased drought in summer.With increasing CO 2 concentrations forests will become more resistant to droughts. If biomass does not increase, the evapotranspiration will decrease, causing an increase in drainage to ground water and run-off.Drought damage to crop production will increase. Agriculture will be less affected in the low lying river delta than in neighbouring regions. This may yield a comparative advantage for the Dutch economy.In coastal lowlands no substantial increase in saline seepage is expected, even if the sea level rises more than one meter.The discharge regime of the Rhine will change drastically. The annual variability of the discharge will strongly increase; winter discharges will increase and summer discharges will decrease.Periods of low river discharge will become more frequent and more prolonged. This will diminish the transport function of the Rhine, with serious economic consequences. The availability of cooling water for power plants will also be affected. A shortage of Rhine water will cause further intrusion of saline water in the lower river delta.The frequency of high discharges will increase. This causes more frequent inundation of the embanked floodplains in the Netherlands. It is not yet clear to what extent this will change safety from flooding.Sensitivity of soils to erosion is more affected by the expected changes in land use than by climate change. The production of sediment by soil erosion may be substantially increased by changes in precipitation.Sedimentation rates on the embanked floodplains in the Netherlands will increase. As a consequence, polluted sediments will become an increasing environmental concern. Pollution in the catchment basins of Rhine, Meuse and Scheldt has to be kept under control. A general conclusion from the different sub-theme studies is that the most serious impacts of climate change result from a shift in extreme conditions more than from a shift in average climate conditions. At present no reliable indications can be given regarding changes in frequency of extreme conditions. This question should be addressed with priority in the future NRP. It appears that, in particular, a more frequent occurrence of periods of drought will have significant economical consequences. © 1995 Elsevier B.V.","Assessment report on NRP subtheme ""rEGIONAL HYDROLOGY""",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+222155,"The Northern Hemisphere has been warmer since 1980 than at any other time during the last 2000 years. The observed increase in temperature has been generally higher in northern than in southern European seas, and higher in enclosed than in open seas. Although European marine ecosystems are influenced by many other factors, such as nutrient enrichment and overfishing, every region has shown at least some changes that were most likely attributable to recent climate change. It is expected that within open systems there will generally be (further) northward movement of species, leading to a switch from polar to more temperate species in the northern seas such as the Arctic, Barents Sea and the Nordic Seas, and subtropical species moving northward to temperate regions such as the Iberian upwelling margin. For seas that are highly influenced by river runoff, such as the Baltic Sea, an increase in freshwater due to enhanced rainfall will lead to a shift from marine to more brackish and even freshwater species. If semi-enclosed systems such as the Mediterranean and the Black Sea lose their endemic species, the associated niches will probably be filled by species originating from adjacent waters and, possibly, with species transported from one region to another via ballast water and the Suez Canal. A better understanding of potential climate change impacts (scenarios) at both regional and local levels, the development of improved methods to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections, the construction of usable climate change indicators, and an improvement of the interface between science and policy formulation in terms of risk assessment will be essential to formulate and inform better adaptive strategies to address the inevitable consequences of climate change. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Impacts of climate change on European marine ecosystems: Observations, expectations and indicators",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+678326,"There are relatively few articles in sociology and psychology on gender ethnicity, and the environment, yet ethnic and gender neutral approaches to sustainability may be incomplete. We studied gender, ethnicity, and environmental concern with an internet sample of Asian American women (n=157) and men (n=69), and European American women (n=222) and men (n=99). Participants completed the New Ecological Paradigm measure (NEP; Dunlap et al., 2000), the value bases of environmental concern (Schultz, 2000), and the Multigroup Ethnic Identity Measure-Revised (MEIM-R; Phinney & Ong, 2007). A 2 (ethnicity) x 2 (gender) ANOVA found no gender or ethnic differences on the NEP. A 2 (ethnicity) x 2 (gender) MANOVA with the three value bases as dependent variables found significant effects for ethnicity and gender Ethnic identification enhanced cultural influences on environmental concern. Findings are discussed in terms of the marketing of environmental sustainability to address climate change and other environmental risks.","Gender, Ethnic Identity, and Environmental Concern in Asian Americans and European Americans",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+369013,"Air temperatures in the trade wind inversion (similar to 850 hPa) over the Caribbean have been rising much faster than sea temperatures. This is associated with an accelerated Hadley circulation, with sinking motions over the Caribbean corresponding with increasing rising motion over the Amazon. The sinking motions induce a faster rate of warming and drying in the trade wind inversion than at other levels. Much of the trend in Caribbean climate is attributable to physical mechanisms; changes in atmospheric composition play a secondary role. Smoke and dust plumes from Africa, drifting westward across the Atlantic, enhance the greenhouse effect in an elevated (1-3 km) layer. A stabilized lower atmosphere across the Caribbean has contributed to warming and drying trends over the twentieth century which are projected to continue. The atmosphere is warming faster than the ocean, causing a decline in sensible heat fluxes that fuel tropical cyclones.",Warming of an elevated layer over the Caribbean,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1474372,"Adaptive habitat-selection theory predicts that individuals should use habitats that maximize lifetime fitness. However, trade-offs between life-history stages, environmental variability, and predator-prey dynamics can interact with individual preferences, which may result in individuals selecting suboptimal habitats. Understanding the distinction between adaptive and maladaptive animal use of habitat is central to effective species conservation, because use of maladaptive habitat is counter to conservation objectives. Our objectives were to assess whether habitat characteristics selected by Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) were correlated with increased production of fledged young. We monitored 411 nests and 120 broods from 234 females between 2004 and 2012 in central Nevada, USA. We determined which habitat characteristics were selected as nesting habitat and assessed whether these characteristics influenced nest success and early offspring survival. The relationships between characteristics selected at nest sites and metrics of reproductive success were variable, in that certain characteristics (e.g., forb cover, amount of pinyon-juniper woodlands) were correlated with higher nest survival and chick survival, but other characteristics (e.g., amount of sagebrush, residual grass height) did not improve reproductive success. Despite variability among predictor variables, we found a positive effect of selection of fine-scale habitat characteristics on nest (beta(NS-Local) +/- 0.14, 85% confidence interval [CI]: 0.04-0.23) and chick survival (beta(CS-Local) = 0.39, 85% CI: 0.27-0.50); however, we did not find that selection of broad-scale habitat characteristics predicted reproductive success (beta(NS-Landscape) = -0.04, 85% CI: -0.15 to 0.06; beta(CS-Landscape) = 0.06, 85% CI: -0.06 to 0.18). Additionally, nest-site selection was more predictive of chick survival than of nest survival, which suggests that females' selection of nesting habitat was based primarily on its qualities as brood-rearing habitat. Together, these findings suggest that nest-site selection may be influenced by more than increased reproductive success, or that there is a landscape-level pattern to local-scale habitat characteristics.",Nesting habitat selection influences nest and early offspring survival in Greater Sage-Grouse,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+957172,"The medullosan pteridosperm ovule Stephanospermum Brongniart is a well-known component of Carboniferous aged coal-ball and siderite nodule floras from North America and Europe but also occurs in the Permian floras of Cathaysia where it is represented by the Lopingian (late Permian) aged species Stephanospermum trunctatum (Li) Wang et al. (2009) from coal-balls in the Wangjiazhai Formation in Southern China. We provide a detailed emendation of S. trunctatum and illustrate it comprehensively for the first time, and document an additional specimen from the Wangjiazhai Formation coal-ball assemblage that we assign to Stephanospermum shuichengensis sp. nov. S. shuichengensis is distinguished from S. trunctarum by the absence of apical teeth in the sclerotesta and non-obovate base. The two species of Stephanospermum from the Wangjiazhai Formation are important as they extend the stratigraphic and geographical range of the genus from the Pennsylvanian of Euramerica into the Lopingian of Southern China, and demonstrate that the genus persisted in wetland, peat forming environments in the run up to the end-Permian mass extinction event. The 44 MY stratigraphic discontinuity between the Euramerican and the Cathaysian species, here named the Stephanospermum gap, leads us to infer that the genus was likely to have occurred in the Pennsylvanian-Permian successions of southern Russia and northern China that are geographically and stratigraphically intermediate to the known occurrences but from which the genus has yet to be discovered. Medullosan pteridosperms appear to have become extinct at or immediately prior to the Permian-Triassic boundary that coincides with the Permo-Trias mass extinction event; although the exact causes of this loss in plant diversity remains unknown, a response to regional climatic drying is likely to have been a contributing factor. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Species of the medullosan ovule Stephanospermum from the Lopingian (late Permian) floras of China,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+781571,"Background: There are limited data on the effects of climate and air pollutant exposure on heart failure (HF) within taking into account individual and contextual variables. Objectives: We measured the lag effects of temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on hospitalizations and deaths for HF in elderly diagnosed with this disease on a 10-year period in the province of Quebec, Canada. Methods: Our population-based cohort study included 112,793 elderly diagnosed with HF between 2001 and 2011. Time dependent Cox regression models approximated with pooled logistic regressions were used to evaluate the 3-and 7-day lag effects of daily temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and PM2.5 exposure on HF morbidity and mortality controlling for several individual and contextual covariates. Results: Overall, 18,309 elderly were hospitalized and 4297 died for the main cause of HF. We observed an increased risk of hospitalizations and deaths for HF with a decrease in the average temperature of the 3 and 7 days before the event. An increase in atmospheric pressure in the previous 7 days was also associated with a higher risk of having a HF negative outcome, but no effect was observed in the 3-day lag model. No association was found with relative humidity and with PM2.5 regardless of the lag period. Conclusions: Lag effects of temperature and other meteorological parameters on HF events were limited but present. Nonetheless, preventive measures should be issued for elderly diagnosed with HF considering the burden and the expensive costs associated with the management of this disease.",Effects of climate and fine particulate matter on hospitalizations and deaths for heart failure in elderly: A population-based cohort study,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+781412,"Globally, many temperate marine communities have experienced significant temperature increases over recent decades in the form of gradual warming and heat waves. As a result, these communities are shifting towards increasingly subtropical and tropical species compositions. Expanding coral populations have been reported from several temperate reef ecosystems along warming coastlines; these changes have been attributed to direct effects of gradual warming over decades. In contrast, increases in coral populations following shorter-term extreme warming events have rarely been documented. In this study, we compared coral populations on 17 temperate reefs in Western Australia before (2005/06) and after (2013) multiple marine heatwaves (2010-2012) affected the entire coastline. We hypothesised that coral communities would expand and change as a consequence of increasing local populations and recruitment of warm-affinity species. We found differences in coral community structure over time, driven primarily by a fourfold increase of one local species, Plesiastrea versipora, rather than recruitment of warm-affinity species. Coral populations became strongly dominated by small size classes, indicative of recent increased recruitment or recruit survival. These changes were likely facilitated by competitive release of corals from dominant temperate seaweeds, which perished during the heatwaves, rather than driven by direct temperature effects. Overall, as corals are inherently warm-water taxa not commonly associated with seaweed-dominated temperate reefs, these findings are consistent with a net tropicalisation. Our study draws attention to processes other than gradual warming that also influence the trajectory of temperate reefs in a changing ocean.",Expansion of corals on temperate reefs: direct and indirect effects of marine heatwaves,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+709599,"Perceptions of climate change by rural communities are centered on observations of variations in temperature and rainfall patterns supported by observations and projections on climate alterations in the form of increased temperatures and scarce rainfall by scientists worldwide. The present study documented perceptions of climate variation and the community's ability to adapt to climate change hazards threatening the production of subsistence crops. Data were collected through interactions with 100 participants. In the study, climate change is explained as variations in temperature and rainfall patterns which resulted in excessive heat, erratic rainfall patterns and drought negatively impacting on subsistence crop production. Community members have the potential to limit the impacts of climate hazards on subsistence crop production. The negative impacts of climate hazards are limited by community members' indigenous knowledge of rainfall prediction, the seasons, crop diversification and mixed cropping. Mulching and the application of kraal manure improve the soil structure and fertility to reduce crop failure. These adaptation measures are resilient to the negative impact of climate hazards and may be helpful in the development of adaptation policies to assist rural communities vulnerable to climate change hazards.","Perceptions of Climate Change and the Potential for Adaptation in a Rural Community in Limpopo Province, South Africa",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2364820,"The increase in hydrological extremes during the last two decades has had a significant impact on natural and social environments. These hydrological extremes depend greatly on changes in the meteorological parameters. The task of this research was to evaluate the impact of meteorological factors (snow water equivalent and heavy rainfall) on the formation of spring floods in the basins of the Nemunas, Lielupe and Venta rivers. Five Lithuanian rivers (Venta, Seuvis, M<umacron>a, Merkys and Zeimena) from these basins were analysed in detail. These rivers fall within the Western, Central and Southeastern hydrological regions of Lithuania. Long-time-series data for daily discharge, precipitation and thickness of snow cover from 12 meteorological and five hydrological gauging stations were used. The evaluation of the relation between these factors was carried out for two periods: 1961-1987 and 1988-2014. The relation between the maximum discharge of the spring flood, the maximum snow water equivalent before the flood and the precipitation amount 10 days before the flood was analysed by multiple regression analysis. The high correlation co-efficients between the observed and predicted maximum discharges of the spring flood for the created regression models fluctuated between 0.63 and 0.86. The verification of the selected regression model was performed with Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) software, which also showed a high correlation co-efficient (0.71). The applied methodology of this research could be used for better perception of flood-formation consequences in different hydrological regions of Europe.",Consequence of meteorological factors on flood formation in selected river catchments of Lithuania,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2316909,"Analyzing the impacts of climate change on hydrology and future projections of water supplies is fundamental for the efficient management and planning of water resources in large river systems on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is known as the ""water tower of Asia."" However, large uncertainties remain in the projections of streamflow and glaciers in these cryospheric catchments due to great uncertainties in climate change projection and modeling processes. In this work, we developed an extended Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model (named VIC-CAS), which was coupled with glacier melting and glacier evolution schemes. A two-stage calibration procedure that used glacier inventory data and the observed streamflow was adopted to derive the model parameters. The calibrated VIC-CAS model was then used to assess the future change in glaciers and runoff using downscaled climate model data in the upstream regimes of the Yellow, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween, and Brahmaputra rivers on the TP. The results indicated that both temperature and precipitation were projected to increase, resulting in a greater than 50% decline of the glacier area by the end of the 21st century in the five catchments. Glacier runoff was already beyond its tipping point at the beginning of the 21st century with a greater than 20% loss of the glacier area except in the upstream of the Yangtze River, where glacier runoff was projected to decrease after the 2030 s. Annual streamflow was projected to increase significantly as a result of increased rainfall-induced runoff, compensating for the reduced glacier/snow melt water in the five major upstream river basins. The increasing rate of warm season streamflow was clearly less than that of annual runoff. A negative trend in warm season streamflow was expected if precipitation did not sufficiently increase. The annual hydrograph remained largely unchanged, except in the upstream of the Yellow River, where peak streamflow was predicted to occur 1 month earlier because of the earlier snowmelt and greater rainfall/precipitation ratio from May to June.",Projecting climate change impacts on hydrological processes on the Tibetan Plateau with model calibration against the glacier inventory data and observed streamflow,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+37091,"Tropical and sub-tropical fruits have received high priority in national, regional and even global agricultural development agenda over the last decade. This is in recognition of its economic, food and nutritional security and environmental contributions and values. For example, the volume exported has increased by 31% from 27.5 million t in 2000 to 35.9 million t in 2004. In terms of value, the global export market in 2004 is estimated at US$ 15 billion. It is also important for the welfare of small farmers where tropical and sub-tropical fruits are key components of home gardens and traditional multi-cropping systems, such as agro-forestry systems, where fruits and fruit products provide substantial income, food, fodder, timber, fuel, medicine and other multiple uses to the poor and marginal groups of farmers. Tropical and sub-tropical fruits are important sources of vitamins and minerals and many of these fruits are also high in dietary fiber. Research findings also indicate that these fruits contain micronutrients, phytochemicals and antioxidants, which could contribute to human well-being and health. There is also a very large potential genepool from cultivated and wild fruit species for the improvement of tropical and sub-tropical fruits and fruit products as it gains more economic importance as an export commodity worldwide. For tropical fruits alone, the Asian region for example, is highly diverse with about 400 species distributed in various ecosystems. The collections currently in field genebanks as well as in situ conservation areas have substantial genepool which can be used to confer specific characteristic such as nutritional value, color and shape of fruits, desirable post harvest characteristics, chemical composition of fruits and resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses which can provide significant competitive advantage to fruits and fruit products in the world market. However, the rapid agricultural and urban development in many countries around the world have brought about changes in land use, large scale deforestation and together with climate change and natural disasters have resulted in massive degradation of natural habitats and loss of native diversity. Due to the recognition of the multiple values of tropical and sub-tropical fruits, and its increasing market potential on one hand and the rapid loss of diversity on the other hand, FAO, IPGRI, ICUC, IICA, TFNet and other organizations facilitated the formation of Fruits Networks which looks at the process of coordinating research and development work on conservation and sustainable use of these valuable resource including the identification of priority fruit species. Currently, through these networks, work must be intensified in the identification of priority genepools of major and minor tropical and sub-tropical fruit species, gathering of information on distribution and diversity, status of collections, genetic resources activities including characterization, evaluation, documentation, maintenance and conservation and looking at ways of increasing value adding to products of elite and improved materials through processing and linking this with improving livelihoods and food and nutritional security of small fruit farmers. It is expected that the benefits derived from the increased income and improved livelihoods of fruit farmers will feedback into promoting tropical and sub-tropical fruit diversity in home gardens, orchards and other agro-forestry systems. There is also the need to provide support to research on conservation techniques and their adoption in national programs, strengthening of capacity building and in promoting national, regional and international collaboration to facilitate networking and dissemination of information.",Conservation and sustainable use of tropical and sub-tropical fruits: Current status and prospects,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1797798,"The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9 degrees C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1 degrees C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.",Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3237868,"Drought is among the costliest natural disasters on both ecosystems and agroeconomics in China. However, most previous studies have used coarse resolution data or simply stopped short of investigating drought projection and its impact on crop yield. Motivated by the newly released higher-resolution climate projection dataset and the crucial need to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural production, the overarching goal of this study was to systematically and comprehensively predict future droughts at unprecedented resolutions over China as a whole. rather than region-specific projections, and then to further investigate its impact on crop yield by innovatively using a soil water deficit drought index. Methodologically, the drought projections were quantified from very high resolution climate data and further predicted impacts on crop yield over China using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a relatively high (25 km) spatial resolution from NASA's Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP). The results showed that (1) overall, China is projected to experience a significant decrease in SPEI (-0.15/decade under RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5; -0.14/decade under RCP8.5). Seasonally, the decreasing rate of SPEI is projected to be largest in winter (-0.2/decade and -0.31/decade) and the least in summer (-0.08/decade and -0.10/decade) under respective RCPs. (2) Regionally, winter/spring will get drier, especially at high latitudes/altitudes (North China and Tibetan plateau), and summer/autumn will get wetter in southern China. (3) Both the frequency and duration for medium and severe drought are projected to decrease, while extreme drought, particularly in high latitudes/altitudes, is projected to increase. (4) The percentage of the potential crop production affected by drought would increase to 36% (47%) by 2100 under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Especially, the ratio impacted by extreme drought is projected to increase over time and with much worse magnitude under RCP8.5; thus, adaptive crop policies are expected to address such a risk.","Drought Trend Analysis Based on the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index Using NASA's Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, High Spatial Resolution Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Projections, and Assessment of Potential Impacts on China's Crop Yield in the 21st Century",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2310677,"Forest growth at high altitudes and latitudes is sensitive to climate warming. However, warming-induced drought stress has decreased forest growth and survival rates, and constitutes a key uncertainty in projections of forest ecosystem dynamics. A fast warming rate has occurred over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and the response pattern of alpine forest growth on the TP to a warmer and possibly drier climate is still unknown. By compiling tree-ring width records from ten alpine treeline ecotones (ATEs), we developed an index of regional tree growth in ATEs (RTGA) on the southeastern TP, which is a major forested region of the TP. Our results showed a stable and clear coherence between RTGA and the regional summer (June-August) minimum temperature during the studied period (1950-2012, R-2 = 0.59, P < 0.001), despite a prominent drying trend since the 1990s. We conclude that warming-induced drought stress has not limited ATE forest growth on the moist southeastern TP.",Growth response of alpine treeline forests to a warmer and drier climate on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+222155,"The Northern Hemisphere has been warmer since 1980 than at any other time during the last 2000 years. The observed increase in temperature has been generally higher in northern than in southern European seas, and higher in enclosed than in open seas. Although European marine ecosystems are influenced by many other factors, such as nutrient enrichment and overfishing, every region has shown at least some changes that were most likely attributable to recent climate change. It is expected that within open systems there will generally be (further) northward movement of species, leading to a switch from polar to more temperate species in the northern seas such as the Arctic, Barents Sea and the Nordic Seas, and subtropical species moving northward to temperate regions such as the Iberian upwelling margin. For seas that are highly influenced by river runoff, such as the Baltic Sea, an increase in freshwater due to enhanced rainfall will lead to a shift from marine to more brackish and even freshwater species. If semi-enclosed systems such as the Mediterranean and the Black Sea lose their endemic species, the associated niches will probably be filled by species originating from adjacent waters and, possibly, with species transported from one region to another via ballast water and the Suez Canal. A better understanding of potential climate change impacts (scenarios) at both regional and local levels, the development of improved methods to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections, the construction of usable climate change indicators, and an improvement of the interface between science and policy formulation in terms of risk assessment will be essential to formulate and inform better adaptive strategies to address the inevitable consequences of climate change. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Impacts of climate change on European marine ecosystems: Observations, expectations and indicators",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+563935,"Glaciers are among the best indicators of terrestrial climate variability, contribute importantly to water resources in many mountainous regions(1,2) and are a major contributor to global sea level rise(3,4). In the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region (HKKH), a paucity of appropriate glacier data has prevented a comprehensive assessment of current regional mass balance(5). There is, however, indirect evidence of a complex pattern of glacial responses(5-8) in reaction to heterogeneous climate change signals(9). Here we use satellite laser altimetry and a global elevation model to show widespread glacier wastage in the eastern, central and southwestern parts of the HKKH during 2003-08. Maximal regional thinning rates were 0.66 +/- 0.09 metres per year in the Jammu-Kashmir region. Conversely, in the Karakoram, glaciers thinned only slightly by a few centimetres per year. Contrary to expectations, regionally averaged thinning rates under debris-mantled ice were similar to those of clean ice despite insulation by debris covers. The 2003-08 specific mass balance for our entire HKKH study region was -0.21 +/- 0.05 m yr(-1) water equivalent, significantly less negative than the estimated global average for glaciers and ice caps(4,10). This difference is mainly an effect of the balanced glacier mass budget in the Karakoram. The HKKH sea level contribution amounts to one per cent of the present-day sea level rise(11). Our 2003-08 mass budget of -12.8 +/- 3.5 gigatonnes (Gt) per year is more negative than recent satellite-gravimetry-based estimates of -5 +/- 3 Gt yr(-1) over 2003-10 (ref. 12). For the mountain catchments of the Indus and Ganges basins(13), the glacier imbalance contributed about 3.5% and about 2.0%, respectively, to the annual average river discharge(13), and up to 10% for the Upper Indus basin(14).",Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+853785,"The timing of bloom and leaf-out has important implications for orchard systems. As temperatures continue to shift under climate change, it is important to be able to accurately model the impact of these changes on the timing of spring phenological events. Changing temperatures may impact cultivars differently, and interfere with pollinizer variety bloom overlap. Bloom windows may shift later or earlier, potentially increasing the risk of exposure to frost or to warm conditions that can interfere with ovule fertilization. Recent work modeling the bloom timing of multiple cultivars of Prunus dulcis (almond) in California predicted bloom reasonably well based on a chill overlap or 'optimal' framework. This approach uses non-linear regression to integrate the well-documented compensatory relationship between chill and heat accumulation, by which greater chill accumulation requires less heat accumulation for bloom and vice versa. However, this approach used chilling requirements estimated from work in other climates or with other chill accumulation models. The present work extends the chill overlap framework to estimate chilling requirements and the relationship between chill and heat accumulation that results in bloom based on historic records of bloom timing. This approach has the potential to estimate bloom prediction curves for numerous cultivars and crops in silico without the effort and expense of forcing experiments, which have proven difficult for many crops.",Modeling spring phenology and chilling requirements using the chill overlap framework,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1533950,"The amount and extent of dispersal can have a large effect on the evolutionary trajectory, dynamics and structure of populations. Thus, understanding patterns of genetic structure provide information about the needs and approaches for population management and species conservation. To date studies addressing the population structure of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) have been surprisingly equivocal, despite a large amount of research quantifying population cyclicity and synchrony and the species' species at-risk status in the contiguous United States and eastern provinces of Canada. Here we use 17 microsatellite loci to conduct a large-scale genetic structuring assessment for Canada lynx, including most of its geographic range from Alaska to Newfoundland. We found large differentiation between lynx populations on the island of Newfoundland and those on the mainland. Yet, contrary to previous studies we found little genetic differentiation (F-ST, D-est, R-ST) owing to the Rocky Mountains, but some evidence of a subtle gene flow restriction between Ontario and Manitoba as previously proposed to be the result of a climatic barrier. Bayesian clustering analysis, however, only suggested two genetic clusters, one consisting of lynx from Newfoundland, and the other consisting of lynx from the rest of the North American range. Because Canada lynx are harvested for fur across most of their range, our results are informative for effective management strategies (e.g., defining management units) aimed at ensuring long-term population connectivity and species persistence.",Dispersal promotes high gene flow among Canada lynx populations across mainland North America,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+395297,"The pollen beetle, Meligethes aeneus F. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae), is a severe pest of winter oilseed rape. A phenological model to forecast the first spring invasion of crops in Luxembourg by M. aeneus was developed in order to provide a tool for improving pest management and for assessing the potential effects of climate change on this pest. The model was derived using long-term, multi-site observational datasets of pollen beetle migration and meteorological data, as the timing of crop invasion is determined mainly by meteorological variables. Daily values of mean air and soil temperature, accumulated sunshine duration and precipitation were used to create a threshold-based model to forecast crop invasion. Minimising of the root mean squared error (RMSE) of predicted versus observed migration dates was used as the quality criterion for selecting the optimum combination of threshold values for meteorological variables. We identified mean air temperature 8.0 degrees C, mean soil temperature 4.6 degrees C, and sunshine duration of 3.4 h as the best threshold values, with a cut-off of 1mm precipitation and with no need for persistence of those conditions for more than one day (RMS E = 9.3 days). Only in six out of 30 cases, differences between observed and predicted immigration dates were > 5 days. In the future, crop invasion by pollen beetles will probably be strongly affected by changes in air temperature and precipitation related to climate change. We used a multi-model ensemble of 15 regional climate models driven by the A1B emission scenario to assess meteorological changes in two 30-year future periods, near future (2021-2050) and far future (2069-2098) in comparison with the reference period (1971-2000). Air temperature and precipitation were predicted to increase in the first three months of each year, both in the near future and the far future. The pollen beetle migration model indicated that this change would be associated with onset of crop invasion 10 days and 23 days earlier in the near future and far future, respectively, despite the inhibitory effect of increased precipitation. Our phenological model should improve pollen beetle management by provision of more accurate warnings of crop invasion and help stakeholders to recognise and plan for future challenges in pest management.",Assessing meteorological key factors influencing crop invasion by pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus F.) - past observations and future perspectives,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1338050,"Climate influences a variety of ecological processes. These effects operate through local weather parameters such as temperature, wind, rain, snow, and ocean currents, as well as interactions among these. In the temperate zone, local variations in weather are often coupled over large geographic areas through the transient behavior of atmospheric planetary-scale waves. These variations drive temporally and spatially averaged exchanges of heat, momentum, and water vapor that ultimately determine growth, recruitment, and migration patterns. Recently, there have been several studies of the impact of large-scale climatic forcing on ecological systems. We review how two of the best-known climate phenomena the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation affect ecological patterns and processes in both marine and terrestrial systems.",Ecological effects of climate fluctuations,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+454070,"Recent findings suggest that climate change will lead to modifications in the timing and nature of precipitation, giving rise to an altered hydrologic cycle. The response of subsurface hydrology to decadal climate and longer-term climate change to date has been investigated via site specific analyses, modeling studies, and proxy analysis. Here we present the first instrumental long-term regional compilation and analysis of the water table response to the last 60 years of climate in New England. Ground water trends are calculated as normalized anomalies and analyzed with respect to regional compiled precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. The time-series display decadal patterns with ground water levels being more variable and lagging that of precipitation and streamflow pointing to site specific and non-linear response to changes in climate. Recent trends (i.e., last 10 years) suggest statistically significant increasing water tables, which could lead to a higher risk for flooding in New England. Citation: Weider, K., and D. F. Boutt (2010), Heterogeneous water table response to climate revealed by 60 years of ground water data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L24405, doi: 10.1029/2010GL045561.",Heterogeneous water table response to climate revealed by 60 years of ground water data,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3970946,"Tropical forests shelter an unparalleled biological diversity. The relative influence of environmental selection (i.e., abiotic conditions, biotic interactions) and stochastic–distance-dependent neutral processes (i.e., demography, dispersal) in shaping communities has been extensively studied for various organisms, but has rarely been explored across a large range of body sizes, in particular in soil environments. We built a detailed census of the whole soil biota in a 12-ha tropical forest plot using soil DNA metabarcoding. We show that the distribution of 19 taxonomic groups (ranging from microbes to mesofauna) is primarily stochastic, suggesting that neutral processes are prominent drivers of the assembly of these communities at this scale. We also identify aluminium, topography and plant species identity as weak, yet significant drivers of soil richness and community composition of bacteria, protists and to a lesser extent fungi. Finally, we show that body size, which determines the scale at which an organism perceives its environment, predicted the community assembly across taxonomic groups, with soil mesofauna assemblages being more stochastic than microbial ones. These results suggest that the relative contribution of neutral processes and environmental selection to community assembly directly depends on body size. Body size is hence an important determinant of community assembly rules at the scale of the ecological community in tropical soils and should be accounted for in spatial models of tropical soil food webs. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd",Body size determines soil community assembly in a tropical forest,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+789920,"The transformation of climatic regime has an undeniable impact on plant production, but we rarely have long enough date series to examine the unfolding of such effects. The clarification of the relationship between crop plants and climate has a near-immediate importance due to the impending human-made global change. This study investigated the relationship between temperature, precipitation, drought intensity and the yields of four major cereals in Hungary between 1921 and 2010. The analysis of 30-year segments indicated a monotonously increasing negative impact of temperature on crop yields. A 1 degrees C temperature increase reduced the yield of the four main cereals by 9.6%-14.8% in 1981-2010, which revealed the vulnerability of Eastern European crop farming to recent climate change. Climate accounted for 17%-39% of yield variability over the past 90years, but this figure reached 33%-67% between 1981 and 2010. Our analysis supports the claim that the mid-20th century green revolution improved yields at the mercy of the weather: during this period, the impact of increasing fertilization and mechanisation coincided with climatic conditions that were more favourable than today. Crop yields in Eastern Europe have been stagnating or decreasing since the mid-1980s. Although usually attributed to the large socio-economic changes sweeping the region, our analysis indicates that a warming climate is at least partially responsible for this trend. Such a robust impact of increasing temperatures on crop yields also constitutes an obvious warning for this core grain-growing region of the world.",Increasing temperature cuts back crop yields in Hungary over the last 90 years,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+576202,"Observations show that, in contrast to the Arctic, the area of Antarctic sea ice has increased since 1979. A potential driver of this significant increase relates to the mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet. Subsurface ocean warming causes basal ice-shelf melt, freshening the surface waters around Antarctica, which leads to increases in sea-ice cover. With climate warming ongoing, future mass-loss rates are projected to accelerate, which has the potential to affect future Antarctic sea-ice trends. Here we investigate to what extent future sea-ice trends are influenced by projected increases in Antarctic freshwater flux due to subsurface melt, using a state-of-the-art global climate model (EC-Earth) in standardized Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate-change simulations. Virtually all CMIP5 models disregard ocean-ice-sheet interactions and project strongly retreating Antarctic sea ice. Applying various freshwater flux scenarios, we find that the additional fresh water significantly offsets the decline in sea-ice area and is even able to reverse the trend in the strongest freshwater forcing scenario that can reasonably be expected, especially in austral winter. The model also simulates decreasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs), with the SST trends exhibiting strong regional variations that largely correspond to regional sea-ice trends.",The effect of increased fresh water from Antarctic ice shelves on future trends in Antarctic sea ice,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+252739,"Assessment of climate change on reservoir inflow is important for water and power stressed countries. Projected climate is subject to uncertainties related to climate change scenarios and Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This paper discusses the consequences of climate change on discharge. Historical climatic and gauging data were collected from different stations within a watershed. Bias correction was performed on GCMs temperature and precipitation data. After successful development of the hydrological modeling system (SWAT) for the basin, streamflow was simulated for three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) and compared with the baseline data (1981-2010) to explore the changes in different flow indicators such as mean flow, low flow, median flow, high flow, flow duration curves, temporal shift in peaks, and temporal shifts in center-of-volume dates. From the results obtained, an overall increase in mean annual flow was projected in the basin under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Winter and spring showed a noticeable increase in streamflow, while summer and autumn showed a decrease in streamflow. High flows were predicted to increase, but median flow was projected to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Flow duration curves showed that the probability of occurrence of high flow is likely to be more in the future. It was also noted that peaks were predicted to shift from May to July in the future, and the center-of-volume date of the annual flow may vary from -11 to 23 days in the basin, under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As a whole, the Mangla basin will face more floods and less droughts in the future due to the projected increase in high and low flows, decrease in median flows and greater temporal and magnitudinal variations in peak flows. These outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.",Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPsThe Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+204570,"We present high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydroclimatic changes over the contiguous U.S. using a regional climate model (RegCM4) that dynamically downscales 11 global climate models from the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project at 18km horizontal grid spacing. All model integrations span 41years in the historical period (1965-2005) and 41years in the near-term future period (2010-2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and cover a domain that includes the contiguous U.S. and parts of Canada and Mexico. Should emissions continue to rise, surface temperatures in every region within the U.S. will reach a new climate norm well before mid 21st century regardless of the magnitudes of regional warming. Significant warming will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm, and wet extremes. The future temperature response will be partly regulated by changes in snow hydrology over the regions that historically receive a major portion of cold season precipitation in the form of snow. Our results indicate the existence of the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling at regional scales where per degree centigrade rise in surface temperature will lead to a 7.4% increase in precipitation from extremes. More importantly, both winter (snow) and summer (liquid) extremes are projected to increase across the U.S. These changes in precipitation characteristics will be driven by a shift toward shorter and wetter seasons. Overall, projected changes in the regional hydroclimate can have substantial impacts on the natural and human systems across the U.S.",High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2352703,"The mitochondrial DNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I sequences from 95 specimens of Semisulcospira libertina in Taiwan were identified as two major phylogroups, exhibiting a southern and northern distribution, north of Formosa Bank and south of Miaoli Plateau. The genetic distance between these two phylogroups was 12.20 %, and the distances within-phylogroups were 4.97 and 5.56 %. According to a molecular clock of 1.56 % per lineage per million years, the divergence time between these two major phylogroups was estimated at 4.94 million years ago (mya), with the two phylogroups forming at 3.64 and 3.75 mya, respectively. Moreover, the geological events have suggested that Taiwan Island emerged above sea level at 4-5 mya, and became its present shape at 2 mya. These results suggested that these two phylogroups might originate from two independent ancestral populations or divergent before colonizing Taiwan. Within South phylogroup, the initial colonization was hypothesized to be in Kaoping River (WT), followed by its northward. The high divergence between south- and north of WT River was influenced by the formation of the Kaoping foreland basins. Within North phylogroup, the colonization was from central sub-region through paleo-Miaoli Plateau to northern and northeastern sub-regions. This study showed that the landform changes might have shaped the genetic structure of S. libertina in concert. Apparently, two cryptic species or five different genetic stocks of S. libertina could be identified; these results are useful for the evaluation and conservation of S. libertina in Taiwan.",Mitochondrial DNA phylogeography of Semisulcospira libertina (Gastropoda: Cerithioidea: Pleuroceridae): implications the history of landform changes in Taiwan,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1473088,"In this study we evaluated the association between temperature variation and mortality and compared it with the contribution due to mean daily temperature in 6 cities with different climates. Quasi-Poisson time series regression models were applied to estimate the associations (relative risk and 95% confidence interval) of mean daily temperature (99th and 1st percentiles, with temperature of minimum mortality as the reference category), interday temperature variation (difference between the mean temperatures of 2 neighboring days) and intraday temperature variation (diurnal temperature range (DTR)) (referred to as median variation) with mortality in 6 cities: London, United Kingdom; Madrid, Spain; Stockholm, Sweden; New York, New York; Miami, Florida; and Houston, Texas (date range, 1985-2010). All cities showed a substantial increase in mortality risk associated with mean daily temperature, with relative risks reaching 1.428 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.329, 1.533) for heat in Madrid and 1.467 (95% CI: 1.385, 1.555) for cold in London. Inconsistent results for inter-/intraday change were obtained, except for some evidence of protective associations on hot and cold days (relative risk (RR) = 0.977 (95% CI: 0.955, 0.999) and RR = 0.981 (95% CI: 0.971, 0.991), respectively) in Madrid and on cold days in Stockholm (RR = 0.989, 95% CI: 0.980, 0.998). Our results indicate that the association between mortality and temperature variation is generally minimal compared with mean daily temperatures, although further research on intraday changes is needed.",Associations of Inter- and Intraday Temperature Change With Mortality,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+322492,"This study was conducted in a rural region where there are conventional and organic farms, the agricultural production includes more than 20 million people, and the effect on environmental quality is still poorly known in terms of indicators. Our objectives were: (1) compare soils attributes to reference areas, (2) verifying if cultivated areas under different farm systems presented differences in the soils attributes, (3) evaluate the attributes of quality water of watersheds and comparing the results with limiting values established by environmental legislation, and (4) analyze the values considering three criterion: watersheds, climatic season, and region of the landscapes. The study was conducted in two rural watersheds that have similar biophysical features and located in the Ibitina municipality, Sao Paulo State, Brazil. However, one watershed encompasses farms where landowners largely use conventional agricultural systems. In the other watershed approximately 25% of the farms there are using an organic farm system. In the two watersheds soil samples were collected in sites covered with natural forest and in sites with agriculture (one watershed being organic and other being conventional). The attributes analyzed were soil bulk density (BD), concentrations of Carbon (C) and Nitrogen (N), C:N ratio, C Management Index, and the abundance of C-13 and N-15 in the soil organic matter. Water attributes were analyzed onsite or in laboratory after analysis of samples. Analyses included: air and water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, salinity, total of dissolved solids, total solids, electric conductivity, turbidity, total chloride, nitrate, total phosphorus and potassium. Regarding the soil attributes our database revealed that (1) the soils from cultivated sites of both watersheds presented significant differences from their respective forested areas, (2) Soil attributes are of equal quality in both farm systems. Concerning water attributes: (1) almost all attributes presented values better than the limiting values stipulated by Brazilian legislation; (2) the watersheds did not present significant differences of most of the attributes; (3) in the criteria climatic season data showed some significant differences. The data showed that the soils from the areas used for agricultural ends present belief that significantly worse soil quality in comparison to soils from sites still covered with natural forest. Neither the land cover nor farming system are altering the superficial water quality of the studied watershed and this appears to be related to the extensive percentage of natural remaining vegetation that still exists in both watersheds. The seasonality is an important force that drives the quality characteristics of the water. We highlight that the principles of organic agriculture should be practiced more efficiently and influences such as deforestation should be rigorously avoided. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Organic farm does not improve neither soil, or water quality in rural watersheds from southeastern Brazil",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1627337,"Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are losing large amounts of water to the world's oceans. However, estimates of their contribution to sea level rise disagree. We provide a consensus estimate by standardizing existing, and creating new, mass-budget estimates from satellite gravimetry and altimetry and from local glaciological records. In many regions, local measurements are more negative than satellite-based estimates. All regions lost mass during 2003-2009, with the largest losses from Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia, but there was little loss from glaciers in Antarctica. Over this period, the global mass budget was -259 +/- 28 gigatons per year, equivalent to the combined loss from both ice sheets and accounting for 29 +/- 13% of the observed sea level rise.",A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+3316981,"Severe cyclonic storm JAL that devastated many Asian countries including southern east coast of India during 4-8 November 2010, evolved from a low pressure area in the South China Sea, near the eastern coast of Borneo, on 28 October 2010. Moving northwestward, the low pressure area emerged in the Bay of Bengal and concentrated in to a tropical depression on 4th November and into a severe cyclonic storm in the early morning of 6th. It produced very heavy rains causing severe floods and damage to life and property over parts of Malaysia, Thailand,Sri Lanka and India. It crossed the east-coast of India on November 7 north of Chennai, 13.3 degrees N and 80.3 degrees E and landfall near Nellore. The system attained a maximum intensity of T3.5. Coupled ocean-atmospheric processes have been examined to understand the unusually long track of the system and impact of floods on landfall along Andhra Pradesh- Tamil Nadu coast. Analysis of daily high resolution reanalysis data in the domain, 0-25 degrees N, 60-130 degrees E, during 1-8 November 2010 has revealed variation of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 27- 31 degrees C, cooler SST to the left of the cyclone track and wind speed between 16 to 24 ms(-1). Satellite derived 3-hourly daily accumulated precipitation varied between 36 to 90 mm. Heavy rainfall was confined to the coastal hilly regions and rainfall was very low over the open ocean along the cyclone track. This had resulted in only a marginal cooling of SST, which had helped in the maintenance of sensible and latent heat fluxes. Significantly warm SST had provided continuous supply of moisture for the sustenance and unusually long travel of the system over sea.","Severe cyclonic storm JAL, air-sea interaction perspectives and floods along Andhra Pradesh-Tamilnadu coast",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2338465,"El Nino is the largest fluctuation in the climate system, and it can lead to effects influencing humans all over the world. An El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become substantially higher than average. We investigated the change in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean during the El Nino period of 2015 and 2016 using the advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) of NOAA Satellites. We calculated anomalies of the Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature for the normal period of 1981-2010 to identify the variation of the 2015 El Nino and warm water area. Generally, the warm water in the western tropical Pacific Ocean shifts eastward along the equator toward the coast of South America during an El Nino period. However, we identified an additional warm water region in the Nino 1+2 and Peru coastal area. This indicates that there are other factors that increase the sea surface temperature. In the future, we will study the heat coming from the bottom of the sea to understand the origin of the heat transport of the Pacific Ocean.",Pacific Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature Variation During the 2015 El Nino Period Observed by Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer of NOAA Satellites,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1527419,"The Danjiangkou Reservoir is the headwater source of the central route of China's South to North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP). Average annual streamflow into the Reservoir was 40.97 km(3) from 1951 to 1989, while it was 31.64 km(3) from 1990 to 2006. Between the two periods, the average annual streamflow was reduced by 9.33 km(3), accounting for 71.8% of the proposed amount of water diversion of the central route (13 km3 per year). The sharply decreasing streamflow would inevitably have negative impacts on the implementation of the SNWDP. The reasons for the decrease in streamflow should be investigated before developing any adaption strategies. In this study, the impacts of climatic variation and human activities on streamflow were evaluated by a climate elasticity method. The results show that the impact of climatic variation (indicated by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) was responsible for 84.1-90.1% of the streamflow reduction, while human activities or other indentified uncertainties contributed 9.9-15.9% of the streamflow reduction. The observed 69.89 mm decrease in average annual precipitation contributed 81.6-87.3% of the decrease in streamflow. According to the observed data during the study period, the planned water diversion could lead to an ecological disaster of the downstream area of the Danjiangkou Reservoir in certain years. We suggest that the water diversion from the Danjiangkou Reservoir should be conducted in an adaptive manner to avoid such an adverse consequence, instead of the current plan of a fixed annual amount of water.",Dramatic decrease in streamflow from the headwater source in the central route of China's water diversion project: Climatic variation or human influence?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2271744,"Climate change and human activities are considered to be the main drivers of runoff changes. Assessing their contributions is important for maintaining the integrity of the water cycle process and promoting the healthy management of water resources. But the contributions of these two factors in the Beichuan River Basin remain unclear. In this study, hydrological and meteorological data from six sub-basins (Niuchang, Xiamen, Heilin, Qiaotou, Dongxia, and Chaoyang) during 1961-2013 were studied to elucidate upon the effects of these processes. Mann-Kendall tests showed that runoff in the Beichuan River Basin showed a downward trend over the study period and revealed that abrupt changes occurred in 1972 and 1989. Therefore, the study period was divided into two periods: a base period and a change period (periods I and II). A climate elasticity model and hydrological sensitivity analysis were used to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities. We found that the dominant factors in changing runoff were human activities. Due with the conversion of cropland to forest and grassland and increases of construction land, during the change period water supply increases evidently. Among the basin regions, the Chaoyang sub-basin showed the greatest runoff decline and an abrupt change in 1989, and human activities had the greatest contribution to runoff change in this sub-basin. In addition, the conversion of cropland to forest and grassland was most evident in the Chaoyang and Qiaotou subbasins, and the area of construction land in these two regions increased greatly during the change period.","Effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Beichuan River Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+757846,"We examine the effect of anomalous temperatures, rainfall levels, and monsoon timing on migration outcomes in Indonesia. Using panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey and high-resolution climate data, we assess whether intra- and inter-province moves are used as a response to climatic shocks. We evaluate the relative importance of temperature, rainfall, and monsoon timing for migration. Only temperature and monsoon timing have significant effects, and these do not operate in the direction commonly assumed. Estimated effects vary according to individuals' gender, membership in a farm household, and location. We also analyze climate effects on sources of household income, which highlights the multi-phasic nature of household responses. Results undermine narratives of a uniform global migratory response to climate change and highlight the heterogeneous use of migration as a response to such changes. By extending previous research on environmentally induced migration in Indonesia, we also highlight the sensitivity of estimates to alternative climate and migration measures.",Heterogeneous climate effects on human migration in Indonesia,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2277232,"Over 21 years after the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (September 2007 - hereafter UNDRIP) was passed, it is useful to examine the functionality and utility of a core principle it contains- the notion of Free Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) with respect to the twin challenges of environmental destruction and a key 'mitigation' policy: REDD+. While UNDRIP, and to a lesser extent, the International Labour Organisation Convention No. 169 (ILO 169) has strengthened the legal status of FPIC, its application has proved to be extremely difficult. This article argues that when considering the potential harm of environmental and REDD+ climate change policies there needs to be a greater emphasis placed on the 'precautionary principle' when applying FPIC. Demonstrating why precaution needs to be taken in order to ensure human rights, this article argues that increasing the prominence of the precautionary principle within EPIC can impact significantly on the protection of biodiversity as well as the way in which environmental harm, laws and regulations are understood in relation to their social and cultural impact and shape future responses to the climate change crisis.","Implementing free prior and informed consent: the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (2007), the challenges of REDD+ and the case for the precautionary principle",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+162375,"Large-scale environmental patterns in the Humboldt Current System (HCS) show major changes during strong El Nino episodes, leading to the mass mortality of dominant species in coastal ecosystems. Here we explore how these changes affect the life-history traits of the Surf clam Mesodesma donacium, Growth and mortality rates under normal temperature and salinity were compared to those tinder anomalous (El Nino) higher temperature and reduced salinity, Moreover, the reproductive spatial-temporal patterns along the distribution range were studied, and their relationship to large-scale environmental variability was assessed. M. donacium is highly sensitive to temperature changes, supporting the hypothesis of temperature as the key factor leading to mass mortality events of this clam in northern Populations. In contrast, this species, particularly juveniles, was remarkably tolerant to low salinity, which may be related to submarine groundwater discharge in Hornitos, northern Chile. The enhanced osmotic tolerance by juveniles may represent an adaptation of early life stages allowing settlement in vacant areas at outlets of estuarine areas. The strong seasonality in freshwater input and in upwelling strength seems to be linked to the spatial and temporal patterns in the reproductive cycle. Owing to its origin and thermal sensitivity, the expansion and dominance of M. donacium from the Pliocene/Pleistocene transition until the present seem closely linked to the establishment and development of the cold HCS. Therefore, the recurrence of warming events (particularly El Nino since at least the Holocene) has submitted this cold-water species to a continuous local extinction-recolonization process.",Thriving and declining: climate variability shaping life-history and population persistence of Mesodesma donacium in the Humboldt Upwelling System,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3312164,"The increase in length and severity of drought events predicted for South-Eastern Europe are expected to engender important changes to remaining native forests. To make informed management decisions promoting their conservation, it is important to better understand their responses to climate and environmental disturbances. In this study, we analyze growth responses over a network of 15 sites of Serbian spruce (Picea omorika), an endemic relict conifer species of the Balkan region - with a natural range restricted to the canyon of the Drina river at the border between Serbia and Bosnia Herzegovina - that has already shown signs of decline and dieback likely induced by increasing temperature and drought. Tree-ring analyses spanning the common period from 1974 to 2016 have shown a strong growth reduction and highlighted an increasing negative growth response to summer drought over the last 30-40 years. The strength of the response differed among individuals and sites, where younger trees and those growing at lower altitude suffered more from drought. Management practices oriented at reducing drought impact, such as thinning to reduce competition for water resources and enhance survival of seedlings, together with assisted natural regeneration and migration to more suitable habitats, are recommended for the conservation of this relict species. The measures are even more necessary considering that this species is more vulnerable than others due to its weak capacity to naturally regenerate and compete.",Climate change threatens on endangered relict Serbian spruce,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1471169,"The effects of variation in climate on population dynamics are likely to differ within the distributional range of a species, yet the consequences of such regional variation on demography and population dynamics are rarely considered. Here we examine how density dependence and different climate variables affect spatio-temporal variation in recruitment rates of Norwegian moose using data collected over a large geographical area during the hunting season. After accounting for observation error by a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, temporal variation in recruitment rates was relatively independent of fluctuations in local population size. In fact, a positive relationship was as common as a density-dependent decrease in fecundity rates. In general, high recruitment rates were found during autumn 1 year after years with a warm February, and after a warm May or cold June in year t - 1 or in year t. Large regional variation was also found in the effects of some of the weather variables, especially during spring. These patterns demonstrate both direct and delayed effects of weather on the recruitment of moose that possibly operate through an effect of body mass on the proportion of the females that sexually mature as 1.5 or 2.5 years old.",Geographical variation in the influence of density dependence and climate on the recruitment of Norwegian moose,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3318334,"The effect of habitat degradation, season and gender on morphological parameters of lesser jerboas (Jaculus jaculus L.) in Kuwait.-Arid environments suffer anthropogenic interference causing habitat degradation. This degradation can influence animal populations. We randomly captured a total of 198 lesser jerboas Jaculus jaculus in three seasons (autumn, spring and summer) in two relatively close areas (intact and degraded). All animals were sexed, and weight, body and tail length, and thigh thickness were taken. We found significant differences in weight (p < 0.001), which was lower in summer (p < 0.05) when fewer food resources were available. Thigh thickness was greater in the intact habitat (p < 0.01), explained by the greater amount of food resources and also by the higher numbers of predators in this area, prompting escape behaviour. Females in the intact area were heavier and had longer bodies and tails. This was related to greater availability of time for mothers to search for food in this area.","The effect of habitat degradation, season and gender on morphological parameters of lesser jerboas (Jaculus jaculus L.) in Kuwait",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3972673,"The effect of a temperature increase from 55 to 65 °C on process performance and microbial population dynamics were investigated in thermophilic, lab-scale, continuously stirred tank reactors. The reactors had a working volume of 3l and were fed with cattle manure at an organic loading rate of 3g VS/l reactor volume/d. The hydraulic retention time in the reactors was 15 days. A stable reactor performance was obtained for periods of three retention times both at 55°C and 65 °C. At 65°C methane yield stabilized at approximately 165ml/g VS/d compared to 200ml/g VS/d at 55°C. Simultaneously, the level of total volatile fatty acids, VFA, increased from being below 0.3g/l to 1.8-2.4g acetate/l. The specific methanogenic activities (SMA) of biomass from the reactors were measured with acetate, propionate, butyrate, hydrogen, formate and glucose. At 65°C, a decreased activity was found for glucose-, acetate-, butyrate- and formate-utilizers and no significant activity was measured with propionate. Only the hydrogen-consuming methanogens showed an enhanced activity at 65°C. Numbers of cultivable methanogens, estimated by the most probable number (MPN) method, were significantly lower on glucose, acetate and butyrate at the increased operational temperature, while the numbers of hydrogenotrophic methanogens remained unchanged. No viable propionate-degrading bacteria were enriched at 65°C. Use of ribosomal oligonucleotide probes showed that an increase in temperature resulted in a decreased contribution of the rRNA of the domain bacteria from 74-79 to 57-62% of the universal probe, while the rRNA of the domain archaea, increased from 18-23 to 34-36%. Copyright © 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd.",Effect of temperature increase from 55 to 65°C on performance and microbial population dynamics of an anaerobic reactor treating cattle manure,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+125022,"This work provides an initial overview of climate features and their related hydrological impacts during the recent extreme droughts (1995, 1998, 2005 and 2010) in the upper Solimoes River (western Amazon), using comprehensive in situ discharge and rainfall datasets. The droughts are generally associated with positive SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic and weak trade winds and water vapor transport toward the upper Solimoes, which, in association with increased subsidence over central and southern Amazon, explain the lack of rainfall and very low discharge values. But in 1998, toward the end of the 1997-98 El Nino event, the drought is more likely related to an anomalous divergence of water vapor in the western Amazon that is characteristic of a warm event in the Pacific. During the austral spring and winter of 2010, the most severe drought since the seventies has been registered in the upper Solimoes. Its intensity and its length, when compared to the 2005 drought, can be explained by the addition of an El Nino in austral summer and a very warm episode in the Atlantic in boreal spring and summer. As in 2005, the lack of water in 2010 was more important in the southern tropical tributaries of the upper Solimoes than in the northern ones. Citation: Espinoza, J. C., J. Ronchail, J. L. Guyot, C. Junquas, P. Vauchel, W. Lavado, G. Drapeau, and R. Pombosa (2011), Climate variability and extreme drought in the upper Solimoes River (western Amazon Basin): Understanding the exceptional 2010 drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L13406, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047862.",Climate variability and extreme drought in the upper Solimoes River (western Amazon Basin): Understanding the exceptional 2010 drought,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1484835,"Amazon forests experienced recent severe droughts in an anomalous short period induced by different mechanisms and had different length periods and spatial patterns. Droughts of 2005 and 2010 were attributed to anomalous Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) during the dry season, but the 2010 drought was more severe and remained for a longer period because it was also induced in late 2009 by a moderate to strong El Nino (EN). Drought in 2015 led to unprecedented warming and extreme soil moisture deficits over some regions, and it was attributed to a very strong EN. Several studies analyzed these drought events regarding different climatic factors such as anomalies in SST, vegetation, temperature, precipitation, soil moisture deficits, solar radiation, etc. However, we have not identified a complete analysis of total cloud cover (TCC) over Amazonia during these drought events in the context of long-term trends and past strong EN events. This brief report aims to present a preliminary analysis of anomalies in TCC over Amazon using reanalysis data with a focus on the last recent drought events into a long-term context. Results show a significant decreasing trend (p < 0.05) for TCC over southern Amazonia during the dry season (around -2% per decade), in contrast to the significant increasing trend found over northern Amazonia during this season and the significant widespread increasing trend during the wet season (between +2 and +4% per decade). Correlation analysis between SST and TCC anomalies is also indicative of the different West-East and North-South patterns linked to EN events or drought episodes driven by TNA warm anomalies.","Droughts Over Amazonia in 2005, 2010, and 2015: A Cloud Cover Perspective",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1356722,"1 Presettlement fire regimes in north-eastern North America and their dependence on climate, fuels, and cultural patterns are poorly understood due to lack of relevant historic or palaeoecological data. Annual records of sediment charcoal accumulation were compiled from seven sites spanning the last 2000 years and representing important climate, vegetation, and cultural settings. Results were compared across sites and across changes in Indian cultures to determine whether fire patterns might be explained by one or more of these variables. 2 Clearly interpretable fires were restricted to the western (most xeric) portion of our study region in Pine Hardwoods of Minnesota, a single fire in Northern Hardwoods of northern Wisconsin, and cultural burning near an Iroquois village in southern Ontario. Other sites in Northern Hardwoods and Hardwood-Hemlock forests did not show clear evidence of fire. Spectral analysis suggested instances in which local fire regimes departed from regional ones. 3 Our interpretation suggests substantially longer intervals between fires than reported in previous sediment charcoal studies. We did not find evidence for fire in mixed oak forests, where it has been speculated that fire might be necessary for oak recruitment, suggesting need for further analysis. 4 A single site in northern Wisconsin was the only Algonquin site showing a clear increase in charcoal suggesting local fire. Algonquin use of fire for hunting may not have affected our sites. A single site in Sioux territory experienced such frequent fire that cultural effects were not evident, even when Sioux were replaced by Chippewa (Algonquin) in the 18th century. One of two Iroquois sites showed clear increases in charcoal during occupation. The second site may not have had settlements nearby.",Local and regional sediment charcoal evidence for fire regimes in presettlement north-eastern North America,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2089991,"We compare satellite altimetry from the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat, 2003-2007) to older topographic maps and digital elevation models (1965-1990) to calculate long-term elevation changes of glaciers on the Svalbard Archipelago. Results indicate significant thinning at most glacier fronts with either slight thinning or thickening in the accumulation areas, except for glaciers that surged which show thickening in the ablation area and thinning in the accumulation areas. The most negative geodetic balances occur in the south and on glaciers that have surged, while the least negative balances occur in the northeast and on glaciers in the quiescent phase of a surge cycle. Geodetic balances are related to latitude and to the dynamical behavior of the glacier. The average volume change rate over the past 40 years for Svalbard, excluding Austfonna and Kvitoya is estimated to be -9.71 +/- 0.55 km(3) yr(-1) or -0.36 +/- 0.02 m yr(-1) w. equivalent, for an annual contribution to global sea level rise of 0.026 mm yr(-1) sea level equivalent.",Svalbard glacier elevation changes and contribution to sea level rise,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+481887,Psychrophilic dry anaerobic digestion (PDAD) of animal manures and agriculture residues is of high interest in cold-climate regions. This paper reports the results of a start-up experiment (113 days) of PDAD of cow feces and wheat straw mixture (at two total solids (TS) of 18 and 21%) in laboratory scale sequence' batch reactor (SBR) at 20 degrees C. An average specific methane yield (SMY) of 96.1 +/- 5 L of CH4 per kg of volatile solid (VS) corrected to standard pressure and temperature (101.3 kPa and 273 K) (L-N CH4 kg(-1) VS) has been achieved for a feed with TS of 18% along with an organic loading rate (OLR) 4.0 g total chemical oxygen demand (TCOD) kg(-1) inoculum day(-1) and a treatment cycle length (TCL) of 21 days. An average SMY of 149.9 +/- 14 L-N CH4 kg(-1) VS with a maximum daily CH4 production rate of 7.2 +/- 0.7 L-N CH4 kg(-1) VS day(-1) have been obtained for a feed with total solid of 21% along with an average daily inoculum OLR of 4.2 g TCOD kg(-1) inoculum day(-1) and TCL of 21 days. The rapid decrease in volatile fatty acids concentration after 7 days of treatment and their low concentration thereafter indicated that hydrolysis was the reaction limiting step. The results indicate that PDAD of cow feces and wheat straw is feasible at feed TS of 21%. Crown Copyright (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.,Starting-up low temperature dry anaerobic digestion of cow feces and wheat straw,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3946340,"Organisms respond to their environments at different hierarchical levels, ranging from the community level (species abundance patterns) to the cellular and genetic levels. One often wishes to model these responses as functions of spatial and temporal variation of environmental variables, either for the purpose of describing and understanding the processes which are operating or for the purpose of predicting the environmental state given an observed spectrum of biological response. The latter purpose obviously relates to environmental monitoring and other practical applications. For modelling the biological response to patterns of environmental variation, one needs a suite of organisms having the following properties: (1) ubiquitous in the environments of interest; (2) responsive at the various hierarchical levels (community, population, physiological, cellular, genetic) to environmental change; (3) long-lived and sedentary in habit; (4) possessing skeletal parts which incorporate, and retain after the individual's death, annual patterns of the physical and chemical environment; (5) suitable for handling and for experimental studies in the laboratory; and (6) relatively well understood genetically. One group of organisms which has proved particularly suitable and meets the above criteria is the bivalve molluscs. They are ubiquitous, sedentary, and responsive to their environment at both the micro- and macro-geographical scales and at all levels of biological organization. Many species can be aged using the periodic rings in their shells. The chemical composition of different layers of the shell can be used as records of their exposure to past environments. Methods for laboratory culture and genetic studies are well established. A number of species are polymorphic at many loci and have been extensively used in population genetic studies. Models will be discussed which relate the responses of bivalve molluscs, at the community and population, as well as the physiological, behavioural and genetic levels, to environmental variation in space and time. We will present a critique of studies to date and suggest approaches for those to be undertaken in the future. © 1985.",Bivalve molluscs as response systems for modelling spatial and temporal environmental patterns,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3889760,"Thyroid hormone has long been known for its profound direct effects on the cardiovascular system, but its interactions with the autonomic nervous system controlling cardiac activity still remain enigmatic. Recently, mice heterozygous for a mutant thyroid hormone receptor α1 (TRα1+/m) have been generated and their analysis has provided new insights into the actions of thyroid hormone on the cardiovascular system. The mutant TRα1 caused many symptoms resembling hypothyroidism, such as bradycardia, as well as reduced contraction and delayed relaxation time of isolated cardiomyocytes. While no abnormalities were detected in the autonomic regulation of the basal heart rate using pharmacologic denervation, an impaired adjustment of the autonomic nervous system could be observed in TRα1+/m mice on activity, stress, or increased temperature. The results thus confirm the important role of TRα1 in maintaining the intrinsic properties of the heart and demonstrate a novel role for TRα1 in the adaptations of the autonomic nervous system controlling the heart rate under non-baseline conditions. © Touchbriefings 2011.",Cardiovascular consequences of a mutant thyroid hormone receptor α1,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+241647,"Crop production in the Northeast Farming Region of China (NFR) is affected considerably by variation in climatic conditions. Data on crop yield and weather conditions from a number of agro-meteorological stations in NFR were used in a mixed linear model to evaluate the impacts of climatic variables on the yield of maize (Zea mays L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.), soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) and spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in different crop growth phases. The crop growing season was divided into three growth phases based on the average crop phenological dates from records covering 1981 and 2010 at each station, comprising pre-flowering (from sowing to just prior to flowering), flowering (20 days around flowering) and post-flowering (10 days after flowering to maturity). The climatic variables were mean minimum temperature, thermal time (which is used to indicate changes in the length of growth cycles), average daily solar radiation, accumulated precipitation, aridity index (which is used to assess drought stress) and heat degree-days index (HDD) (which is used to indicate heat stress) were calculated for each growth phase and year. Over the 1961-2010 period, the minimum temperature increased significantly in each crop growth phase, the thermal time increased significantly in the pre-flowering phase of each crop and in the post-flowering phases of maize, rice and soybean, and HDD increased significantly in the pre-flowering phase of soybean and wheat. Average solar radiation decreased significantly in the pre-flowering phase of all four crops and in the flowering phase of soybean and wheat. Precipitation increased during the pre-flowering phase leading to less aridity, whereas reduced precipitation in the flowering and post-flowering phases enhanced aridity. Statistical analyses indicated that higher minimum temperature was beneficial for maize, rice and soybean yields, whereas increased temperature reduced wheat yield. Higher solar radiation in the pre-flowering phase was beneficial for maize yield, in the post-flowering phase for wheat yield, whereas higher solar radiation in the flowering phase reduced rice yield. Increased aridity in the pre-flowering and flowering phases severely reduced maize yield, higher aridity in the flowering and post-flowering phases reduced rice yield, and aridity in all growth phases reduced soybean and wheat yields. Higher HDD in all growth phases reduced maize and soybean yield and HDD in the pre-flowering phase reduced rice yield. Such effects suggest that projected future climate change may have marked effects on crop yield through effects of several climatic variables, calling for adaptation measures such as breeding and changes in crop, soil and agricultural water management.",Climate effects on crop yields in the Northeast Farming Region of China during 1961-2010,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+322238,"The nature of shallow aquifers and the impacts of seawater intrusion in small islands within the Pacific Ocean are reviewed. Many Pacific islands rely on shallow fresh groundwater lenses in highly permeable aquifers, underlain and surrounded by seawater, as their principal freshwater source. It is argued here that, in small islands, the nature of fresh groundwater lenses and their host aquifers coupled with frequent natural and ever-present anthropogenic threats make them some of the most vulnerable aquifer systems in the world. A simple steady-state approximation is used to provide insight into the key climatic, hydrogeological, physiographic, and management factors that influence the quantity of, and saline intrusion into freshwater lenses. Examples of the dynamic nature of freshwater lenses as they respond to these drivers are given. Natural and human-related threats to freshwater lenses are discussed. Long dry periods strongly coupled to sea surface temperatures impact on the quantity and salinity of fresh groundwater. The vulnerability of small island freshwater lenses dictates careful assessment, vigilant monitoring, appropriate development, and astute management. Strategies to aid future groundwater sustainability in small islands are presented and suggested improvements to donor and aid programs in water are also advanced.",Management of freshwater lenses on small Pacific islands,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3232279,"Center-pivot sprinklers are rapidly expanding on the Southern High Plains, and LEPA (low energy precision application) application methods are widely used in this region tb reduce water application losses, to use the relatively low well yields, and to reduce energy requirements for pressurization. This study was conducted to evaluate LEPA irrigation response of corn (Zea mays L.) on slowly permeable Pullman clay loam (fine, mixed, thermic Torrertic Paleustoll). The effects of irrigation amount were investigated in afield study during the 1992 and 1993 cropping seasons at Bushland, Texas. In 1992, a wetter than normal season, grain yields varied from 0.6 to 1.2 kg/m(2) while in 1993, which was a season with slightly less than normal rain, grain yields varied from 0.4 to over 1.5 kg/m(2) as irrigations increased from no-post plant irrigations to fully meeting the crop water use. Irrigation amounts for the full irrigation varied from only 279 mm for the wet year to over 640 mm for the more normal year. A significant relationship was found between grain yield and water use for the two years described as GY (kg/m(2)) = 0.00169 [WU (mm) - 147] with an r(2) of 0.882 and a S-y/x of 0.10 kg/m(2). Deficit irrigation of corn, even with LEPA, reduced yields by affecting both seed mass and kernels per ear. Generally, the grain yield was in proportion to dry matter yield. LEPA irrigation was shown to be efficient in terms of partitioning the applied water into crop water use. Irrigation amounts should not exceed 25 mm for alternate furrows (0.76-m rows) LEPA on the Pullman-type soils with furrow dike basins.",Yield and water use efficiency of corn in response to LEPA irrigation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1333266,"Daily mortality displays a seasonal pattern linked to weather, air pollution, photoperiod length, influenza incidence and diet, among which temperature ranks as a leading cause. This study thus sought to assess the relationship between temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mortality in the Madrid Autonomous Region (Spain) for the period January 1986-December 1992, controlling for the effects of air pollution and influenza incidence. Daily data on maximum, minimum and 24-hour mean temperature, relative humidity and wind speed were matched against daily mortality. Transfer function was identified using the Box-Jenkins pre-whitening method. Multivariate time series regression models were used to control for the confounding effects of air pollution and influenza incidence. Separate seasonal analyses were carried our for winter and summer periods. A J-shaped relationship between outdoor temperature, relative humidity and daily mortality was found. Mortality proved to be inversely related to cold temperature (4- to 11-day lag) and directly related to warm temperature (1-day lag). High relative humidity during summer periods was negatively related to mortality. Thermal variation ascribable to Madrid's mesothermal Mediterranean climate was strongly related to daily mortality, even where air pollution and influenza incidence were controlled for.",Daily mortality in Madrid community 1986-1992: Relationship with meteorological variables,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+492113,"Predicted decreases in water availability across the temperate forest biome have the potential to offset gains in carbon (C) uptake from phenology trends, rising atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition. While it is well established that severe droughts reduce the C sink of forests by inducing tree mortality, the impacts of mild but chronic water stress on forest phenology and physiology are largely unknown. We quantified the C consequences of chronic water stress using a 13-year record of tree growth (n = 200 trees), soil moisture, and ecosystem C balance at the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, and a regional 11-year record of tree growth (n > 300 000 trees) and water availability for the 20 most dominant deciduous broadleaf tree species across the eastern and midwestern USA. We show that despite similar to 26 more days of C assimilation by trees at the MMSF, increasing water stress decreased the number of days of wood production by similar to 42 days over the same period, reducing the annual accrual of C in woody biomass by 41%. Across the deciduous forest region, water stress induced similar declines in tree growth, particularly for water-demanding 'mesophytic' tree species. Given the current replacement of water-stress adapted 'xerophytic' tree species by mesophytic tree species, we estimate that chronic water stress has the potential to decrease the C sink of deciduous forests by up to 17% (0.04 Pg C yr(-1)) in the coming decades. This reduction in the C sink due to mesophication and chronic water stress is equivalent to an additional 1-3 days of global C emissions from fossil fuel burning each year. Collectively, our results indicate that regional declines in water availability may offset the growth-enhancing effects of other global changes and reduce the extent to which forests ameliorate climate warming.",Chronic water stress reduces tree growth and the carbon sink of deciduous hardwood forests,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+3941628,"Reports of visible algal blooms have increased in New South Wales (NSW) coastal waters since 1990. Our three-year, multi-disciplinary study assessed the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic nutrients on the development of phytoplankton blooms in the waters between Port Stephens and Jervis Bay. The hinterland of this region accommodates 85% of the population of the 6.5 million inhabitants of New South Wales, Australia. Three deepwater outfalls represented the principal, continuous, anthropogenic nutrient source with nitrogen mainly in the bioavailable form of ammonia. Sewage effiuent typically remained submerged especially during the spring-summer period when algal blooms occur most frequently. On average, coastal catchments contributed relatively small loads of nutrients except during major fiood events because extensive estuaries tend to buffer nutrient fluxes to the ocean. Episodic slope water intrusions were the principal source of nitrogen (nitrate) to coastal waters especially during spring and summer. Phytoplankton blooms appeared to occur in response to slope water intrusions irrespective of proximity to other major nutrient sources. A new understanding of mechanisms of slope water intrusion emerged from model simulations and direct observations. A major upwelling event in January 1998, towards the end of the 1997/98 El Niño period, demonstrated the importance of large scale slope water intrusions on the development of algal blooms. Although natural upwelling/uplifting was found to be the principal driver for major algal blooms, it is possible that more subtle impacts of anthropogenic nutrients may be masked by 'natural' variability including that due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation.",Phytoplankton responses to nutrient sources in coastal waters off southeastern Australia,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2339128,"Drought is one of the most unforgiving natural disasters that could leave severe environmental, economic, and societal impacts. Jordan has witnessed several droughts recently along with recurring summer heat waves, which could be a consequence of global warming, and due to the fact that freshwater resources in Jordan are scarce, it is vital to utilize proper modeling and forecasting techniques that will improve the country's preparedness for possible future droughts. In this study, the annual precipitation data for Amman-Zarqa Basin over the 1980-2016 record were analyzed to identify the occurrence of major droughts in 21 rain stations. Three dimensionless indices which depend solely on precipitation were applied: standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation ratio (SPR), and percentage departure from normal (PDN). A comparison was also made among these indices and it was concluded that the SPR and PDN predicted higher numbers of moderate and severe droughts on the expense of extreme droughts compared to the SPI. It was also found that the 1998-1999 year was the driest year in the studied record in which 15 out of 21 stations witnessed extreme droughts. SPI trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test, and it was found that most of the stations experienced negative trends implying increasing droughts over recent years; however, the trends were statistically insignificant for most stations.",Drought assessment and monitoring in Jordan using the standardized precipitation index,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+126230,"The present study investigated possible correlations between fluctuations of air temperature and precipitation from 1945 to 2008 and the variability of hydrological processes due to climate changes from 1945 to 2010 in the Talas River Basin, Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia. Features and trend variations of annual average runoff precipitation and temperature at the Talas River were analyzed by applying the Mann-Kendall test method using meteorological and hydrological data gleaned from the Talas River Basin. We found a strong relationship between air temperature, precipitation, and stream-flow. The obtained results in this investigation showed that air temperature had significantly increased by 1.8 degrees C. Although precipitation in the upper portion of the basin was not significantly changed during the observed time, precipitation in the lower portion slightly decreased. Furthermore, Talas River runoff trends exhibited an upward tendency over the past several decades. Increases in air temperature and precipitation led to increasing river runoff volume across the entire river. In addition, with rising air temperatures, the intensity of glacial melting increased, leading to increased runoff volume into the Talas River. The results of this study showed that the hydrological processes of the Talas River Basin in Central Asia are highly sensitive to climate variability and changes, and that this sensitivity will likely become more pronounced in the future.",CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES OF THE TALAS RIVER IN CENTRAL ASIA,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+45316,"In recent years, rapid urban growth accompanied by a significant impact on the environment has occurred in several parts of the world From 8 to 9 August 2007, torrential rain convective systems passed through northeastern Xi'an, China. The amount of rainfall exceeded 200 mm throughout a broad area in the region. The largest flood event over the past 50 years resulted in a fatality and more than RMB 500 million in economic damage. One system used to study the movement of precipitation is the Davenport WSR-88D radar coverage that allows high quality characterization of the storm at fine spatial and temporal scales. Spatial distributions of rainfall combined with the degree of urbanization of individual basins are the dominant factors that determine the magnitude of runoff response. We explore the hydrologic response to the flood events from 8 to 9 August 2007, and the viable options to reduce urban runoff by increasing rainfall infiltration through model simulation. Results indicate that the schemes are effective elements for flood control in urban areas.","Impact of Urbanization on Rainfall-Runoff Process in a City: the Flood from 8 to 9 August 2007 in Xi'an, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+2315418,"In recent years enormous progress has been made in understanding the role of epigenetic regulation response to environmental stimuli, especially in response to stresses. Molecular mechanisms involved in chromatin dynamics and silencing have been explained, leading to an appreciation of how new phenotypes can be generated quickly in response to environmental modifications. In some cases, it has also been shown that epigenetic modifications can be stably transmitted to the next generations. Despite this, the vast majority of studies have been carried out with model plants, particularly with Arabidopsis, and very little is known on how native plants in their natural habitat react to changes in their environment. Climate change has been affecting, sometimes drastically, the conditions of numerous ecosystems around the world, forcing populations of native species to adapt quickly. Although part of the adaptation can be explained by the preexisting genetic variation in the populations, recent studies have shown that new stable phenotypes can be generated through epigenetic modifications in few generations, contributing to the stability and survival of the plants in their natural habitat. Here, we review the recent data that suggest that epigenetic variation can help natural populations to cope to with change in their environments.",A Role for Epigenetic Regulation in the Adaptation and Stress Responses of Non-model Plants,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+541320,"Besides climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological risks, the consequences on water quality is just beginning to be studied. This review aims at proposing a synthesis of the most recent existing interdisciplinary literature on the topic. After a short presentation about the role of the main factors (warming and consequences of extreme events) explaining climate change effects on water quality, the focus will be on two main points. First, the impacts on water quality of resources (rivers and lakes) modifying parameters values (physico-chemical parameters, micropollutants and biological parameters) are considered. Then, the expected impacts on drinking water production and quality of supplied water are discussed. The main conclusion which can be drawn is that a degradation trend of drinking water quality in the context of climate change leads to an increase of at risk situations related to potential health impact. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1401276,"Geomorphic, lithologhic, and stratigraphic field studies as well as pollen data and mineralogical study have been used to propose Pliocene and Pleistocene paleogeographic reconstructions of the El'gygytgyn meteorite crater area. The moment of impact is recorded above the early Pliocene hill denudation plain as a ""chaotic horizon"" consisting of fragments of impactite rocks. This chaotic horizon lies between layers of late Pliocene alluvial sediments. During the second half of the late Pliocene, the region was tectonically active, when the Anadyr lowland was uplifted causing alluvial sediments to accumulate in the basins to the south of the crater. Regional climatic cooling, which supported the spread of tundra and the formation of permafrost is characteristically to late Pliocene. The 35-40 m high terrace that roughly follows the 530 m contour interval along the Enmyvaam River formed during the middle Pleistocene. This terrace represents the maximum lake level. Erosion and incision of the upper Enmyvaam River increased due to another wave of uplift. Additionally, El'gygytgyn Lake discharge increased causing lake level to begin to drop in the Middle Pleistocene. Cooling continued, which led to the development of herb-dominated arctic tundra. middle and late Pleistocene glaciations did not reach the El'gygytgyn lake region. The 9-11 m high lacustrine terrace was formed around the lake during the late Pleistocene and the 2-3 m high lacustrine terrace formed later during the Holocene. During the last 5000 years, the lake level has continued to drop as the modern coastline developed.","Pliocene to Holocene geomorphic evolution and paleogeography of the El'gygytgyn Lake region, NE Russia",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+484562,"Research on gender dimensions of climate change response is needed if we are to succeed in providing decision-makers with a relevant scientific basis for climate change policy. Although action at the municipal level has become a high priority for Swedish climate change response, knowledge of how gender perspectives affect that response is scarce. This paper contributes knowledge of how to integrate a gender perspective in planning for climate change response, through the modification and application of a system of gender categorization that was originally developed for evaluating the World Bank's performance of environmental impact assessments. That system is used, in this paper, to analyse the Swedish component of a global citizen consultation, World Wide Views on Global Warming. The research is based on analysis of our participation in the World Wide Views as well as interviews and documentation. A conclusion from our analysis is that the Swedish part of the citizen consultation was driven by an approach that, according to the system of gender categorization, strongly demonstrated both feminine and masculine attributes. The results show that an approach that incorporates not only masculine attributes, but also feminine ones, is likely to generate a more robust and concrete climate change response.",Engendering Climate Change: The Swedish Experience of a Global Citizens Consultation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+899662,"The assumption that increased wildfire incidence in the Mediterranean Basin during the last decades is an outcome of changes in land use warrants an objective analysis. In this study we examine how annual area burned (BA) in the Portuguese public forest varied in relation to environmental and human-influenced drivers during the 1943-2011 period. Fire behaviour models were used to describe fuel hazard considering biomass removal, cover type changes, area burned, post-disturbance fuel accumulation, forest age-classes distribution and fuel connectivity. Biomass removal decreased rapidly beyond the 1940s, which, along with afforestation, increased fuel hazard until the 1980s; a subsequent decline was caused by increased fire activity. Change point analysis indicates upward shifts in BA in 1952 and in 1973, both corresponding to six-fold increases. Fire weather (expressed by the 90th percentile of the Canadian FWI during summer) increased over the study period, accounting for 18 and 36% of log(BA) variation before 1974 and after 1973, respectively. Regression modelling indicates that BA responds positively to fire weather, fuel hazard and number of fires in descending order of importance; pre-summer and 2-year lagged precipitation respectively decrease and increase BA, but the effects are minor and non-significant when both variables are included in the model. Land use conflicts (expressed through more fires) played a role, but it was afforestation and agricultural abandonment that supported the fire regime shifts, explaining weather-drought as the current major driver of BA as well. We conclude that bottom-up factors, i.e. human-induced changes in landscape flammability and ignition density, can enhance or override the influence of weather-drought on the fire regime in Mediterranean humid regions. A more relevant role of fuel control in fire management policies and practices is warranted by our findings. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",The dynamics and drivers of fuel and fire in the Portuguese public forest,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+271276,"Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+588227,"Glacier mass balance is the direct and undelayed response to atmospheric conditions and hence is among the essential variables required for climate system monitoring. It has been recognized as the largest non-steric contributor to the present rise in sea level. Six decades of annual mass-balance data have been compiled and made easily available by the World Glacier Monitoring Service and its predecessor organizations. In total, there have been 3480 annual mass-balance measurements reported from 228 glaciers around the globe. However, the present dataset is strongly biased towards the Northern Hemisphere and Europe and there are only 30 'reference' glaciers that have uninterrupted series going back to 1976. The available data from the six decades indicate a strong ice loss as early as the 1940s and 1950s followed by a moderate mass loss until the end of the 1970s and a subsequent acceleration that has lasted until now, culminating in a mean overall ice loss of over 20 m w.e. for the period 1946-2006. In view of the discrepancy between the relevance of glacier mass-balance data and the shortcomings of the available dataset it is strongly recommended to: (1) continue the long-term measurements; (2) resume interrupted long-term data series; (3) replace vanishing glaciers by early-starting replacement observations; (4) extend the monitoring network to strategically important regions; (5) validate, calibrate and accordingly flag field measurements with geodetic methods; and (6) make systematic use of remote sensing and geo-informatics for assessment of the representativeness of the available data series for their entire mountain range and for the extrapolation to regions without in situ observations; and (7) make all these data and related meta-information available.",Six decades of glacier mass-balance observations: a review of the worldwide monitoring network,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+604006,The spatial variability of seasonal precipitation regimes in the Iberian Peninsula is overlapped by complex patterns of temporal variability Consequently traditionally described space domains of seasonal rainfall regimes in Spain may be changing In this paper we evaluate seasonal precipitation trends over Spanish conterminous land to determine how these trends are modifying traditionally described seasonal rainfall regimes in the study area To this end we used a recently developed high resolution grid (1/10 degree longitude and latitude) derived from the MOPREDAS database comprising 2670 complete and homogeneous monthly precipitation series for the 1946-2005 period and calculated and compared the seasonal precipitation regimes observed in two consecutive 30-year periods (1946-1975 and 1976-2005) We found that from the total of 24 possible permutations between winter spring summer and autumn as dominant and subdominant precipitation seasons 12 coexist over Spanish conterminous land Moreover there have been notable changes in the last 30 years affecting not only the most prominent season but also the variant within each regime The trends observed therefore indicate that on comparing the two 30 year subperiods the percentage of territory in which winter constitutes the dominant precipitation season decreases from 51 1% to 42 7% of the total study area Similarly spring was the dominant precipitation season in 36 1% of the territory in the 1946-1975 period whereas in the 1976-2005 period it is the dominant one in less than half (15 1%) the territory This contrasts with areas where autumn constituted the main precipitation season which increased from 10 8% (restricted to the Mediterranean coast) to 41 4% of the territory Within the context of climate change these variations among seasonal precipitation patterns can be explained by (1) a subtropicalization of the IP climate with a reduction of rainfall amounts from winter to summer and (2) an increase in the autumn rainfall percentage (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved,Changes in seasonal precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula during 1946-2005,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1879488,"The subpolar maritime climate of Iceland is characterized by relatively large interdecadal variations. Temperature measurements show that the nineteenth century was colder and more variable than the twentieth century. Iceland experienced rapid warming in the 1920s and relatively mild conditions prevailed until the 1960s, when colder conditions set in. In recent decades Iceland has again experienced significant warming and early this century the temperatures exceeded those attained during the mid-twentieth century warm period. The recent warming has been accompanied by significant changes in both physical and biological systems. These include glacier retreat, runoff changes and isostatic rebound, increased plant productivity and changes in tree limits. In coastal waters, the range of fish species is changing, reflecting warmer conditions. Socioeconomic impacts that can be related to the warming are already discernable, in the agricultural, transportation, and fishing sectors. Climate model projections for Iceland indicate that continued warming is likely although interdecadal variability may lead to punctuated warming episodes. An adaptation strategy has to take into account the various uncertainties associated with the magnitude of climate change and the severity of the impacts as well as the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of societal systems. A comprehensive framework for dealing with adaptation is needed. It is argued that a risk management perspective is appropriate.","Recent Climate Change, Projected Impacts, and Adaptation Capacity in Iceland",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2332184,"Extreme weather induced by climate change can have major consequences for human health. In this study, I quantify the effect of tropical storm frequency and severity on mortality using objective meteorological data and the universe of vital statistics records from a large developing country, Mexico. Using a measure of storm exposure that accounts for both windspeed dispersion and population density along the storm track, I project changes in past storm-related mortality under various scenarios of continued climate change, while holding population and income at contemporaneous levels. I find that storm related deaths would have risen under most climate change scenarios considered, with increases of as much as 52% or declines of as much as 10%, depending on the interplay between increasing storm severity and decreased frequency. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Tropical storms and mortality under climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+404282,"Projections of the hydrological cycle over the southeastern United States are compared between CCSM4 and the superparameterized model (SP-CCSM4). Under the extreme forcing of the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario, in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Kentucky, SP-CCSM4 projects a decrease in summer precipitation, whereas the conventionally parameterized CCSM4 projects an increase in summer rainfall. The projected reduction in summer precipitation in SP-CCSM4 is due to the remote influence from the northwest intrusion of the North Atlantic subtropical high, as well as the local decrease of soil moisture content. Both models show that summer precipitation over the southern United States is characterized by a positive feedback with soil moisture. However, in CCSM4 rainfall increases with increasing soil moisture and in SP-CCSM4 rainfall decreases with decreasing soil moisture.The different representation of cloud processes in the two models yields different responses of precipitation to the latent heat flux changes over the southeastern United States. Moreover, multivariate EOF analyses in the two models suggest that the local land-atmosphere interactions have a stronger influence on the projected changes of precipitation over the southeastern United States than does the North Atlantic subtropical high.",Projection of Summer Precipitation over the Southeastern United States in the Superparameterized CCSM4,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2099279,"Climate change is a world phenomenon, it will cause changes in global temperature or warming, and then systematically will also affect the melting of the north and south poles which then will affect the rise of sea level and will also affect the coastal areas as well as the communities there. On the other hand, religion has an important role in responding to climate change phenomenon. In the study of three Christian Congregation in Nusaniwe Sub-district, as fishermen living on the coastal areas, has now experienced the impacts of climate change that affect their spirituality. The objectives of this research are (1) to identify the impacts of climate change on fisherman's catching fishery activities, and (2) to analyze Christian fisherman's survival strategy to embody their gender perspective spirituality in facing the climate change. The findings of the study indicate that (1) the impacts of climate change can occur directly affecting the fishing communities (2) The strategy of facing climate change, realizing the spirituality of Christian family. Whatever strategies men and women do survive in climate change also influence gender construction in fishermen families, the perception of gender in the fishermen families generally illustrates that the wife's primary duty is to take care of the household but may help the husband in earning a living; while the responsibility of earning, a living remains the husband's duty. Decision-making concerning domestic and public activities in fishermen families does not follow a particular pattern specifically centered on a husband or wife but has a dispersed pattern.",The Role of Religion to Face Climate Change: A Survival Strategy of Christian Fishermen Families to Embody Gender Perspective and Spirituality of GPM's Congregation in Coastal Area of Nusaniwe Subdistrict Ambon City,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3949368,"Cheniers occur in numerous locations across northern Australia, principally in association with river mouths and adjacent riverine and tidal mudflats. This region is characterised by hot wet summers, warm dry winters, meso-macro tidal ranges, low waves, tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and mangrove forests, all of which play a role in chenier evolution. A few chenier sites exist in arid regions of southern Australia where all sediments are of in-situ biogenic and marine origin. Studies of Australian cheniers commenced in the 1970's and now encompass all regions, although many specific sites remain uninvestigated. © 1989.",Chenier research on the Australian coast,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+793791,"This study aims to understand how different reference periods (i.e., calibration periods) of climate data used to estimate drought indices influence regional drought assessments. Specifically, we investigate the influences of different reference periods on historical drought characteristics, such as the trend, frequency, intensity and spatial extent, using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) with a 12-month lag (SPEI-12), which was estimated from the datasets of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and the University of Delaware (UDEL). For the 1901-1957 (P1) and 1958-2014 (P2) estimation periods, three different types of reference periods are used to compute the SPEI: P1 and P2 together, P1 and P2 separately and P1 only. Focusing on East Asia, Europe, the United States and West Africa, we find that the influence of the reference period is significant in East Asia and West Africa, with dominant drying trends from P1 to P2. The reference period influenced the assessment of drought characteristics, particularly the severity and spatial extent, whereas the influence on the frequency was relatively small. Finally, self-calibration, which is the most common practice for indices such as the SPEI, tends to underestimate the drought severity and spatial extent relative to the other approaches used in this study. Although the conclusions drawn in this study are limited by the use of two global datasets, they highlight the need for clarification of the reference period in drought assessments to better understand regional drought characteristics and the associated temporal changes, particularly under climate change scenarios.",Effects of different reference periods on drought index (SPEI) estimations from 1901 to 2014,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+3950896,"Subsurface agricultural drainage waters from western San Joaquin Valley, California, were found to contain elevated concentrations of the element selenium in the form of selenate. In 1978, these drainage waters began to replace previous input to Kesterson Reservoir, a pond system within Kesterson National Wildlife Refuge; this substitution was completed by 1982. In the 1983 nesting season, unusual rates of deformity and death in embryos and hatchlings of wild aquatic birds (up to 64% of eared grebe and American coot nests) occurred at the refuge and were attributed to selenium toxicosis. Features necessary for contamination to have taken place included geologic setting, climate, soil type, availability of imported irrigation water, type of irrigation, and the unique chemical properties of selenium. The mechanisms of biogeochemical cycling raise questions about other ecosystems and human exposure. © 1987 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.","Biogeochemical cycling of selenium in the San Joaquin Valley, California, USA",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+228030,"Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB) in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs) for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated.","Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1400738,"Three-dimensional rain characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) are statistically quantified, using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data from December 1997 to December 2003. Tropical cyclones are classified into four maximum intensity classes (<34, 34-64, 64-128, and >= 128 kt) and three stages (developing, mature, and decaying). First, rain characteristics of TCs are compared with those of the equatorial (10 degrees N-10 degrees S) mean. A notable finding here is that the average stratiform rain ratio (SRR), which is the contribution from stratiform rain in the total rainfall, of TCs is 52%, while it is 44% for the equatorial oceanic mean and 46% for the Madden-Julian oscillation in its mature phase. Stronger rain is observed in TCs both for convective and stratiform rain. Second, radial rain characteristics of TCs suggest that the region 0-60 km can be classified as ""the inner core,"" and 60-500 km as ""the rainband."" The inner core is characterized with small SRR, very high rain-top height, and a large flash rate, indicating the vigor of convective activity. In contrast, the rainband is characterized with large SRR and relatively large rain yield per flash, indicating a large rainfall amount with a moderate convective activity. An important implication of this study is that TCs are listed in the high end of tropical oceanic organized rain systems, in terms of the organization levels of rain. Last, we use the above composite results to calculate the rainfall contribution of TCs to total annual rainfall between 35 degrees N and 35 degrees S as 3.3% +/- 0.1%.",A Statistical Study on Rain Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones Using TRMM Satellite Data,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+224672,"Scientific papers published locally in many Asian countries are often inaccessible to researchers elsewhere due to language barriers or omission from international journal databases. This paper provides the first comprehensive review of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on plant and animal species in Japan, drawing extensively from both local and international publications. There were a number of long-term data sets on phenological and distributional changes covering more than five decades. Observed phenology records showed two characteristic trends in Japan; greater shifts of plant phenology in autumn relative to spring and delays in insect appearance dates in spring. Distribution records of insect and marine species indicated poleward range expansions of 18-140 km per decade. Future projections on phenology suggested varied responses between species and possible disruptions in ecosystem functions, while those on distributions indicated potential significant range reductions and changes in species assemblages and diversity. Some of these responses are not in line with the global trends while others show changes of greater magnitude than for other regions, which highlights the importance of region-specific climate change impact assessments. The research recommends that, to improve the evaluation of climate change impacts in countries where the common languages are not English, search efforts should be expanded to include locally available data and publications. This can be facilitated by using country-specific journal databases and increasing collaboration with local researchers. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Ecological impacts of climate change in Japan: The importance of integrating local and international publications,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+687365,"P>Aerated soils are a biological sink for atmospheric methane. However, the activity of desert soils and the presence of methanotrophs in these soils have hardly been studied. We studied on-site atmospheric methane consumption rates as well as the diversity and expression of the pmoA gene, coding for a subunit of the particulate methane monooxygenase, in arid and hyperarid soils in the Negev Desert, Israel. Methane uptake was only detected in undisturbed soils in the arid region (similar to 90 mm year-1) and vertical methane profiles in soil showed the active layer to be at 0-20 cm depth. No methane uptake was detected in the hyperarid soils (similar to 20 mm year-1) as well as in disturbed soils in the arid region (i.e. agricultural field and a mini-catchment). Molecular analysis of the methanotrophic community using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) and cloning/sequencing of the pmoA gene detected methanotrophs in the active soils, whereas the inactive ones were dominated by sequences of the homologous gene amoA, coding for a subunit of the ammonia monooxygenase. Even in the active soils, methanotrophs (as well as in situ activity) could not be detected in the soil crust, which is the biologically most important layer in desert soils. All pmoA sequences belonged to yet uncultured strains. Transcript analysis showed dominance of sequences clustering within the JR3, formerly identified in Californian grassland soils. Our results show that although active methanotrophs are prevalent in arid soils they seem to be absent or inactive in hyperarid and disturbed arid soils. Furthermore, we postulate that methanotrophs of the yet uncultured JR3 cluster are the dominant atmospheric methane oxidizers in this ecosystem.",In situ measurement of methane fluxes and analysis of transcribed particulate methane monooxygenase in desert soils,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1396746,"Riparian Vegetation is vulnerable to human impact worldwide, and this is especially so in arid areas, yet there have been few quantitative studies and this is especially so in Spain. The state of the riparian vegetation along three major rivers and seasonal watercourses of south-eastern Spain was evaluated during 1992-93, using the species composition and community structure in watercourses of different sizes under different management. Reaches of the watercourses were classified using five vegetation indices, namely percentage cover, species richness, degree of connectivity between patches of the plant communities, number of exotic species, and evidence of natural regeneration. With the integration of these into one index, the degradation state of the riparian vegetation in each reach was quantified. In addition, types of human activities exerting the greatest impact were noted, and a scale to evaluate the intensity of each impact was established. The indications are that agriculture has very substantially altered the natural vegetation, and this index has served to highlight the most altered zones, and thus those in most urgent need of restoration. Less-degraded zones could serve as models and sources of plant species for future restoration. The degradation index made it possible to establish quickly, easily, and with a high degree of accuracy, the state of conservation of the riparian vegetation in the study area.",Evaluating riparian vegetation in semi-arid Mediterranean watercourses in the south-eastern Iberian Peninsula,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1465136,"An unprecedented strengthening of Pacific trade winds since the late 1990s (ref. 1) has caused widespread climate perturbations, including rapid sea-level rise in the western tropical Pacific(2-5) strengthening of Indo-Pacific ocean currents(6,7), and an increased uptake of heat in the equatorial Pacific thermocline(1). The corresponding intensification of the atmospheric Walker circulation is also associated with sea surface cooling in the eastern Pacific, which has been identified as one of the contributors to the current pause in global surface warming(1, 8, 9). In spite of recent progress in determining the climatic impacts of the Pacific trade wind acceleration, the cause of this pronounced trend in atmospheric circulation remains unknown. Here we analyse a series of climate model experiments along with observational data to show that the recent warming trend in Atlantic sea surface temperature and the corresponding trans-basin displacements of the main atmospheric pressure centres were key drivers of the observed Walker circulation intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall trends and western Pacific sea-level rise. Our study suggests that global surface warming has been partly offset by the Pacific climate response to enhanced Atlantic warming since the early 1990s.",Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+735970,"Significant attention has focused on the possibility that climate change will displace large populations in the developing world, but few multivariate studies have investigated climate-induced migration. We use event history methods and a unique longitudinal dataset from the rural Ethiopian highlands to investigate the effects of drought on population mobility over a 10-year period. The results indicate that men's labor migration increases with drought and that land-poor households are the most vulnerable. However, marriage-related moves by women also decrease with drought. These findings suggest a hybrid narrative of environmentally-induced migration that recognizes multiple dimensions of adaptation to environmental change. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Drought and Population Mobility in Rural Ethiopia,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+716017,"Droughts, which occur as a part of natural climate variability, are expected to increase in frequency and/or severity with global climate change. An improved understanding of droughts and their association with atmospheric circulation will add to the knowledge about the controls on drought, and the ways in which changes in climate may impact droughts. In this study, 1) major drought patterns across the United States have been defined, 2) the robustness of these patterns over time using tree-ring-based drought reconstructions have been evaluated, and 3) the drought patterns with respect to global atmospheric pressure patterns have been assessed. From this simple assessment, it is suggested that there are two major drought patterns across North America, which together account for about 30% of the total variance in drought patterns-one resembles the classic ENSO teleconnection, and the other displays an east-west drought dipole. The same two patterns are evident in the instrumental data and the reconstructed drought data for two different periods, 1404-2003 and 900-1350. The 500-mb circulation patterns associated with the two drought patterns suggest that the controls on drought may come from both Northern Hemisphere and tropical sources. The two drought patterns, and presumably their associated circulation patterns, vary in strength over time, indicating the combined effects of the two patterns on droughts over the past millennium.",Two Modes of North American Drought from Instrumental and Paleoclimatic Data,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+393829,"Marine life is being affected by changes in ocean conditions resulting from changes in climate and chemistry triggered by combustion of fossil fuels. Shifting spatial distributions of fish species is a major observed and predicted impact of these oceanographic changes, and such shifts may modify fish community structure considerably in particular locations and regions. We projected future range shifts of pelagic marine fishes of the Northeast Pacific shelf seas by 2050 relative to the present. We combined published data, expert knowledge, and pelagic fish survey data to predict current species distribution ranges of 28 fish species of the Northeast Pacific shelf seas that occur in the epipelagic zone and are well-represented in pelagic fish surveys. These represent a wide spectrum of sub-tropical to sub-polar species, with a wide range of life history characteristics. Using projected ocean condition changes from three different Earth System Models, we simulated changes in the spatial distribution of each species. We show that Northeast Pacific shelf seas may undergo considerable changes in the structure of its pelagic marine communities by mid-21st century. Ensembles of model projections suggest that the distribution centroids of the studied species are expected to shift poleward at an average rate of 30.1 +/- 2.34 (S.E.) km decade(-1) under the SRES A2 scenario from 2000 to 2050. The projected species range shifts result in a high rate of range expansion of this group of species into the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea. Rate of range contraction of these species is highest at the Aleutian Islands, and in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. We also predict increasing dominance of warmer water species in all regions. The projected changes in species assemblages may have large ecological and socio-economic implications through mismatches of co-evolved species, unexpected trophic effects, and shifts of fishing grounds. These results provide hypotheses of climate change impacts that can be tested using data collected by monitoring programmes in the region. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Projecting future changes in distributions of pelagic fish species of Northeast Pacific shelf seas,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+643768,"Objectives: To identify and characterize the determinants of food insecurity among Inuit women. Methods: A community-based study in Igloolik, Nunavut, using semi-structured interviews (n=36) and focus groups (n=5) with Inuit women, and key informants interviews with health professionals (n=13). Results: There is a high prevalence of food insecurity among Inuit females in Igloolik, with women in the study reporting skipping meals and reducing food intake on a regular basis. Food insecurity is largely transitory in nature and influenced by food affordability and budgeting; food knowledge; education and preferences; food quality and availability; absence of a full-time hunter in the household; cost of harvesting; poverty; and addiction. These determinants are operating in the context of changing livelihoods and climate-related stresses. Conclusion: Inuit women's food insecurity in Igloolik is the outcome of multiple determinants operating at different spatial-temporal scales. Climate change and external socio-economic stresses are exacerbating difficulties in obtaining sufficient food. Coping strategies currently utilized to manage food insecurity are largely reactive and short-term in nature, and could increase food system vulnerability to future stresses. Intervention by local, territorial and federal governments is required to implement, coordinate and monitor strategies to enhance women's food security, strengthen the food system, and reduce vulnerability to future stressors.",Food Insecurity among Inuit Women Exacerbated by Socio-economic Stresses and Climate Change,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1353748,"Hydroclimatic parameters were examined to identify spatial variability among 19 Midwestern basins during the 1950-1990 period. The magnitude of annual streamflow variability values increased westward across the Midwest and appeared to be associated with a similar pattern in annual precipitation variability. Basin seasonal streamflow values were analyzed to determine the occurrence of hydrologic drought. A criterion that combined duration and severity of low-flow characteristics was used to determine hydrologic droughts. Sixteen of the 19 basins experienced between one and four hydrologic droughts, whereas 3 experienced none. The temporal distribution and spatial extent of the 45 hydrologic droughts indicated that there were two classifications of Midwestern hydrologic drought during this period. The first type-''long-term'' hydrologic drought-occurred over: (1) a period of 12 or more consecutive seasons and (2) a broad latitudinal belt across the Midwest. Long-term hydrologic droughts occurred during the period from the early 1950s through the late 1960s. Since 1970, hydrologic droughts can be described as ''short-term'' and are characterized as having occurred over: (1) periods generally less than two years and (2) a smaller region. This information could assist hydrologists and water managers in understanding the more precise nature of temporal and spatial differences that exist in Midwestern hydrologic drought.",Changing temporal and spatial characteristics of midwestern hydrologic droughts,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+514467,"Retrofitting existing coal power plants with plasma gasification results in modernized clean energy facilities. Plasma gasification technology offers an environmentally responsible solution for older power plants allowing old power plants to meet increasingly stringent regulatory and environmental standards. Plasma Gasification technology converts coal / biomass into syngas, which is cleaned of impurities i.e. sulfur and mercury, and then combusted in the existing facility s steam electric generating equipment (typically boilers). By retrofitting plasma gasification technology into the older power plants, much of the existing facility infrastructure is retained and reused; thereby reducing repowering costs and the amount of air pollutants emitted is drastically reduced. As well, by replacing some of the coal with renewable biomass feedstock, construction and demolition waste or municipal solid waste, significant greenhouse gas reductions can also be attained. Retrofitting coal fueled facilities using plasma gasification system is expected to reduce harmful air emissions below US environmental guidelines, with significant reductions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), mercury (Hg) and sulfur oxides (SO x). Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from retrofitted facilities are possible by combining biomass into the feedstock to displace the need for coal and further reduction may be possible with the future add-on of carbon capture and sequestration technology. As well, it enhances power generation on Brownfield sites in areas of high power demand. Most importantly, it makes it unnecessary to abandon older power plants, the people who operate them, the vendors who sell goods and services to them, and the communities who benefit from them. As well, as it is a more time and cost efficient solution than building new facilities NRG Energy's power plant in Somerset, MA currently produces 110 megawatts (MW) with a pulverized coal combustion boiler and associated steam turbine. NRG has proposed and received required approvals from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection for the design, construction, and operation of a plasma gasification system at Somerset and the refueling of the existing boiler from pulverized coal to clean syngas firing using the plasma gasification technology developed by Westinghouse Plasma Corp (WPC). WPC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Alter Nrg. The approval also allows the use of up to 45% biomass, on a heat input basis to displace coal, thereby earning both Renewable Energy Credits and significantly reducing the emissions of greenhouse gas (GHG). There are close to 600 small to medium size coal-fired generation units in North America that are nearing the end of their economic life because they cant meet new emissions standards. NRG Energy together with Alter NRG has identified more than 320 coal-fired units that are suitable for retrofitting using WPC plasma technology. NRG Energy s Somerset plant will be the worlds first plasma gasification retrofit of a coal-fired power plant. Our paper will explain how plasma gasification works, the application to and benefits of plasma gasification for power plant retrofits, the experiences with plasma gasification of waste feed materials in commercial plants in Japan and India and the industry trends which are heightening interest in North America and around the world for plasma gasification application for power generation.",Retrofitting existing coal-fired power plants with plasma gasification to meet clean air act environmental standards,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+726445,"The Tibetan Plateau and surroundings contain the largest number of glaciers outside the polar regions(1). These glaciers are at the headwaters of many prominent Asian rivers and are largely experiencing shrinkage(2), which affects the water discharge of large rivers such as the lndus(3'4). The resulting potential geohazards(5,6) merit a comprehensive study of glacier status in the Tibetan Plateau and surroundings. Here we report on the glacier status over the past 30 years by investigating the glacial retreat of 82 glaciers, area reduction of 7,090 glaciers and mass-balance change of 15 glaciers. Systematic differences in glacier status are apparent from region to region, with the most intensive shrinkage in the Himalayas (excluding the Karakorum) characterized by the greatest reduction in glacial length and area and the most negative mass balance. The shrinkage generally decreases from the Himalayas to the continental interior and is the least in the eastern Pamir, characterized by the least glacial retreat, area reduction and positive mass balance. In addition to rising temperature, decreased precipitation in the Himalayas and increasing precipitation in the eastern Pamir accompanied by different atmospheric circulation patterns is probably driving these systematic differences.",Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+111062,"While climate change is now fully recognised as a reality, its impact on biodiversity is still not completely understood. To predict its impact, proxies coherent with the studied ecosystem or species are thus required. Marine turtles are threatened worldwide (though some populations are recovering) as they are particularly sensitive to temperature throughout their entire life cycle. This is especially true at the embryo stage when temperature affects both growth rates and sex determination. Nest temperature is thus of prime importance to understand the persistence of populations in the context of climate change. We analysed the nest temperature of 21 loggerheads (Caretta caretta) originating from Dalyan Beach in Turkey using day-lagged generalised mixed models with autocorrelation. Surprisingly, the selected model for nest temperature includes an effect for sea surface temperature 4-times higher than for air temperature. We also detected a very significant effect of metabolic heating during development compatible with what is already known about marine turtle nests. Our new methodology allows the prediction of marine turtle nest temperatures with good precision based on a combination of air temperature measured at beach level and sea surface temperature in front of the beach. These data are available in public databases for most of the beaches worldwide. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Nest temperatures in a loggerhead nesting beach in Turkey is more determined by sea surface than air temperature,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1297553,"Background The impacts of climate change on surface water, waterborne disease, and human health remain a growing area of concern, particularly in Africa, where diarrheal disease is one of the most important health threats to children under 5 years of age. Little is known about the role of surface water and annual flood dynamics (flood pulse) on waterborne disease and human health nor about the expected impact of climate change on surface-water-dependent populations. Methods and findings Using the Chobe River in northern Botswana, a flood pulse river-floodplain system, we applied multimodel inference approaches assessing the influence of river height, water quality (bimonthly counts of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids [TSS], 2011-2017), and meteorological variability on weekly diarrheal case reports among children under 5 presenting to health facilities (n = 10 health facilities, January 2007-June 2017). We assessed diarrheal cases by clinical characteristics and season across age groups using monthly outpatient data (January 1998-June 2017). A strong seasonal pattern was identified, with 2 outbreaks occurring regularly in the wet and dry seasons. The timing of outbreaks diverged from that at the level of the country, where surface water is largely absent. Across age groups, the number of diarrheal cases was greater, on average, during the dry season. Demographic and clinical characteristics varied by season, underscoring the importance of environmental drivers. In the wet season, rainfall (8-week lag) had a significant influence on under-5 diarrhea, with a 10-mm increase in rainfall associated with an estimated 6.5% rise in the number of cases. Rainfall, minimum temperature, and river height were predictive of E. coli concentration, and increases in E. coli in the river were positively associated with diarrheal cases. In the dry season, river height (1-week lag) and maximum temperature (1 - and 4-week lag) were significantly associated with diarrheal cases. During this period, a 1-meter drop in river height corresponded to an estimated 16.7% and 16.1% increase in reported diarrhea with a 1- and 4-week lag, respectively. In this region, as floodwaters receded from the surrounding floodplains, TSS levels increased and were positively associated with diarrheal cases (0- and 3-week lag). Populations living in this region utilized improved water sources, suggesting that hydrological variability and rapid water quality shifts in surface waters may compromise water treatment processes. Limitations include the potential influence of health beliefs and health seeking behaviors on data obtained through passive surveillance. Conclusions In flood pulse river-floodplain systems, hydrology and water quality dynamics can be highly variable, potentially impacting conventional water treatment facilities and the production of safe drinking water. In Southern Africa, climate change is predicted to intensify hydrological variability and the frequency of extreme weather events, amplifying the public health threat of waterborne disease in surface-water-dependent populations. Water sector development should be prioritized with urgency, incorporating technologies that are robust to local environmental conditions and expected climate-driven impacts. In populations with high HIV burdens, expansion of diarrheal disease surveillance and intervention strategies may also be needed. As annual flood pulse processes are predominantly influenced by climate controls in distant regions, country-level data may be inadequate to refine predictions of climate- health interactions in these systems.",Hydrometeorology and flood pulse dynamics drive diarrheal disease outbreaks and increase vulnerability to climate change in surface-water-dependent populations: A retrospective analysis,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+700016,"The breeding schedules of birds may not change at a rate sufficient to keep up with the current pace of climate change, causing reduced reproductive success. This disruption of synchrony is called the ""mismatch hypothesis."" We analyzed data on the breeding of Thick-billed Murres (Uric lomvia) at a colony in northern Hudson Bay, Canada, to examine the relative importance of matched and mismatched timing in determining the growth rates of nestlings. From 1988 to 2007 the date of break-up and 50% clearance of sea ice in surrounding waters advanced by 17 days, and the date on which the count of murres at the colony peaked, an index of food availability, advanced by the same amount. However, the median date of egg-laying advanced by only 5 days so that the number of days between the date of hatching and the date of peak attendance and 50% ice cover increased over the study period. Nestlings' growth was reduced in years when the counts of attending adults peaked early in the season and early relative to the date of hatching. These observations suggest that the timing of breeding is not advancing to keep pace with changes in the timing of events in the arctic marine environment, leading to greater difficulty in provisioning nestlings. We also demonstrate a relationship between the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation and both the date of peak colony attendance and the growth of nestlings. This relationship suggests that large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions influence the availability of prey for murres, although the mechanism by which this Occurs is not yet understood. Our results support the idea that mismatching of avian breeding cycles with peaks in food abundance is an important consequence of global climate change.","CHANGES IN SEASONAL EVENTS, PEAK FOOD AVAILABILITY, AND CONSEQUENT BREEDING ADJUSTMENT IN A MARINE BIRD: A CASE OF PROGRESSIVE MISMATCHING",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+363356,"This paper introduces the use of space technology and geographic information systems in hydro-meteorological hazards and groundwater hazard that cause a wide variety of losses. A series of major disasters such as floods, flash floods, droughts, cyclones, extreme weather events, including the groundwater contamination were witnessed in India. The decadal analyses indicate that the frequencies of naturally occurring disasters were increased since 1970. Both frequency and intensity of floods and the extreme temperature events have increased considerably, which have a correspondence with global climate change. With the help of various case studies of disasters across India, this paper demonstrates geospatial approaches to illustrate the nature of damage and vulnerable areas. Innovations in space technology and geospatial approaches have catered newer dimensions for timely detection and monitoring of disasters. Albeit some actions and measures are taken up at national level for disaster management, there are challenges to alleviate the risk of future disasters as the frequency as well as intensity are expected to increase under climate change. © 2015 IEEE.",Geospatial perspectives on hydro-meteorological hazards and groundwater hazard in India,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+157492,"The Arctic Ocean is expected to transition into a seasonally ice-free state by mid-century, enhancing Arctic warming and leading to substantial ecological and socio-economic challenges across the Arctic region. It has been proposed that artificially increasing high latitude ocean albedo could restore sea ice, but the climate impacts of such a strategy have not been previously explored. Motivated by this, we investigate the impacts of idealized high latitude ocean albedo changes on Arctic sea ice restoration and climate. In our simulated 4xCO(2) climate, imposing surface albedo alterations over the Arctic Ocean leads to partial sea ice recovery and a modest reduction in Arctic warming. With the most extreme ocean albedo changes, imposed over the area 70 degrees-90 degrees N, September sea ice cover stabilizes at similar to 40% of its preindustrial value ( compared to similar to 3% without imposed albedo modifications). This is accompanied by an annual mean Arctic surface temperature decrease of similar to 2 degrees C but no substantial global mean temperature decrease. Imposed albedo changes and sea ice recovery alter climate outside the Arctic region too, affecting precipitation distribution over parts of the continental United States and Northeastern Pacific. For example, following sea ice recovery, wetter and milder winter conditions are present in the Southwest United States while the East Coast experiences cooling. We conclude that although ocean albedo alteration could lead to some sea ice recovery, it does not appear to be an effective way of offsetting the overall effects of CO2 induced global warming.",Impacts of ocean albedo alteration on Arctic sea ice restoration and Northern Hemisphere climate,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+70891,"The dynamics of the Peru-Chile upwelling system (PCUS) are primarily driven by alongshore wind stress and curl, like in other eastern boundary upwelling systems. Previous studies have suggested that upwelling-favorable winds would increase under climate change, due to an enhancement of the thermally-driven cross-shore pressure gradient. Using an atmospheric model on a stretched grid with increased horizontal resolution in the PCUS, a dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios from a global coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is performed to investigate the processes leading to sea-surface wind changes. Downscaled winds associated with present climate show reasonably good agreement with climatological observations. Downscaled winds under climate change show a strengthening off central Chile south of 35A degrees S (at 30A degrees S-35A degrees S) in austral summer (winter) and a weakening elsewhere. An alongshore momentum balance shows that the wind slowdown (strengthening) off Peru and northern Chile (off central Chile) is associated with a decrease (an increase) in the alongshore pressure gradient. Whereas the strengthening off Chile is likely due to the poleward displacement and intensification of the South Pacific Anticyclone, the slowdown off Peru may be associated with increased precipitation over the tropics and associated convective anomalies, as suggested by a vorticity budget analysis. On the other hand, an increase in the land-sea temperature difference is not found to drive similar changes in the cross-shore pressure gradient. Results from another atmospheric model with distinct CGCM forcing and climate scenarios suggest that projected wind changes off Peru are sensitive to concurrent changes in sea surface temperature and rainfall.",What dynamics drive future wind scenarios for coastal upwelling off Peru and Chile?,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+696526,"To control the severe soil erosion in the Loess Plateau, China, a great number of soil conservation measures including terracing, afforestation, and construction of sediment-trapping dams have been implemented since the 1950s. These measures have resulted in large-scale land use and land cover change. It is important to evaluate the impacts of these soil conservation measures on streamflow as streamflow is an important determinant on catchment sediment yield and obviously is related to water security in the region. In this study, data from 11 catchments in the Loess Plateau were analyzed to investigate the responses of streamflow to the land use/cover changes. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Pettitt test were used to identify trends and change points in the streamflow records. All 11 catchments had significant negative trend in annual streamflow of -0.13 to -1.58 mm a(-1). Change points in streamflow occurred between 1971 and 1985. A method was employed to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and land use/cover changes on mean annual streamflow on the basis of precipitation and potential evaporation. It was estimated that the land use/cover changes accounted for over 50% of the reduction in mean annual streamflow in 8 out of the 11 catchments. However, climate (i.e., precipitation and potential evaporation) played a more important role in reducing the streamflow in the three remaining catchments. Among the soil conservation measures, construction of sediment-trapping dams and reservoirs, with associated irrigation water extractions from the latter, appeared to be the main cause of the reduced streamflow.","Responses of streamflow to changes in climate and land use/cover in the Loess Plateau, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+631132,"Maize production plays an important role in global food security, especially in arid and poor-soil regions. Its production is also increasing in China in terms of both planting area and yield. However, maize productivity in rainfed croplands is constrained by low soil fertility and moisture insufficiency. To increase the maize yield, local farmers use NPK fertilizer. However, the fertilization regime (CF) they practice is unbalanced with too much nitrogen in proportion to both phosphorus and potassium, which has led to low fertilizer use efficiency and excessive greenhouse gases emissions. A two-year field experiment was conducted to assess whether a high yielding but low greenhouse gases emission system could be developed by the combination of balanced fertilization (BF) and biochar amendment in a rainfed farmland located in the Northern region of China. Biochar was applied at rates of 0, 20, and 40 t/ha. Results show that BF and biochar increased maize yield and partial nutrient productivity and decreased nitrous oxide (N2O) emission. Under BF the maize yield was 23.7% greater than under CF. N2O emissions under BF were less than half that under CF due to a reduced N fertilizer application rate. Biochar amendment decreased N2O by more than 31% under CF, while it had no effect on N2O emissions under BF. Thus BF was effective at maintaining a high maize yield and reducing greenhouse gases emissions. If combined with biochar amendment, BF would be a good way of sustaining low carbon agriculture in rainfed areas. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Biochar helps enhance maize productivity and reduce greenhouse gas emissions under balanced fertilization in a rainfed low fertility inceptisol,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+575310,"Background: In assessing health risks relating to current and future heat extremes, it is important to include developing countries, because these countries are considered to be vulnerable to the impact of climate change due to inadequate public health infrastructure, nutritional status and so forth. However, it is usually difficult to obtain relevant information from these countries, also because of insufficient public health infrastructure. Objectives: We invented a method that can be used for developing countries to assess the health risks of current and future extremes, but there still are some issues. We introduce and discuss these issues. Design: We analysed time-series data with non-parametric regression models including generalised additive models, which controlled for time trends. Results: When we controlled for year, the temperature-mortality relation was V-shaped, but when we controlled for season as well as year, the left side of the V-shape disappeared. Our month-specific analysis also revealed that winter months had higher mortality rates than other months, but there was no relation between mortality rate and temperature within each month during winter. Conclusions: This suggests that, unlike heat effects, risks due to cold effects may not be ameliorated even if global warming occurs. We need to investigate the mechanism behind high mortality during winter months.",Issues in health risk assessment of current and future heat extremes,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1286912,"Background: There is a growing discussion regarding the mortality burdens of hot and cold weather and how the balance between these may alter as a result of climate change. Net effects of climate change are often presented, and in some settings these may suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality will outweigh increases in heat related mortality. However, key to these discussions is that the magnitude of temperature-related mortality is wholly sensitive to the placement of the temperature threshold above or below which effects are modelled. For cold exposure especially, where threshold effects are often ill-defined, choices in threshold placement have varied widely between published studies, even within the same location. Despite this, there is little discussion around appropriate threshold selection and whether reported associations reflect true causal relationships - i.e. whether all deaths occurring below a given temperature threshold can be regarded as cold-related and are therefore likely to decrease as climate warms. Objectives: Our objectives are to initiate a discussion around the importance of threshold placement and examine evidence for causality across the full range of temperatures used to quantify cold-related mortality. We examine whether understanding causal mechanisms can inform threshold selection, the interpretation of current and future cold-related health burdens and their use in policy formation. Methods: Using Greater London data as an example, we first illustrate the sensitivity of cold related mortality to threshold selection. Using the Bradford Hill criteria as a framework, we then integrate knowledge and evidence from multiple disciplines and areas-including animal and human physiology, epidemiology, biomarker studies and population level studies. This allows for discussion of several possible direct and indirect causal mechanisms operating across the range of 'cold' temperatures and lag periods used in health impact studies, and whether this in turn can inform appropriate threshold placement. Results: Evidence from a range of disciplines appears to support a causal relationship for cold across a range of temperatures and lag periods, although there is more consistent evidence for a causal effect at more extreme temperatures. It is plausible that 'direct' mechanisms for cold mortality are likely to occur at lower temperatures and 'indirect' mechanisms (e.g. via increased spread of infection) may occur at milder temperatures. Conclusions: Separating the effects of 'extreme' and 'moderate' cold (e.g. temperatures between approximately 8-9 degrees C and 18 degrees C in the UK) could help the interpretation of studies quoting attributable mortality burdens. However there remains the general dilemma of whether it is better to use a lower cold threshold below which we are more certain of a causal relationship, but at the risk of under-estimating deaths attributable to cold.",What is cold-related mortality? A multi-disciplinary perspective to inform climate change impact assessments,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+698284,"We describe dramatic shifts in the species composition of the marine fish community of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence using a 35-year time series of catch rates in an annual bottom-trawl survey. We attempt to understand the causes of these changes using a traits-based approach that relates the similarity among species in their abundance trends to similarities in their ecological traits. We selected traits based on a priori beliefs of how each should reflect susceptibility to changes in a different external factor potentially affecting the community. We found evidence for an effect of ocean climate and top-down effects of fishing and seal predation, but not for bottom-up effects of prey availability on adult fishes. Mean body length in the community decreased dramatically in the 1990s. This reflected the removal of large-bodied fishes by fishing and sharp increases in the abundance of small fishes. The biomass of small fish was inversely correlated with an index of predation on those fish by larger fish, suggesting strong predator control of the abundance of small-bodied fishes. Our results suggest that changes in ocean climate combined with direct and indirect effects of harvesting can dramatically and rapidly alter the composition of marine fish communities.",Impacts of environmental change and direct and indirect harvesting effects on the dynamics of a marine fish community,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1501295,"In a study on sandy loam soil of Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) farm of New Delhi, soil hydrothermal environment under bed planted wheat was compared with conventionally flat planted wheat for evaluating the suitability of bed-planting system for the semiarid climate of this region. The soil temperature and water contents of the 0-20 cm soil profile under bed and conventional planting were monitored during drying cycle after 2nd and subsequent irrigations. Results revealed that mostly soil water content under bed planting was lower by 0.5-1% (w/w) than under conventional system mainly due to lower application of irrigation water and because of more porous soil environment. But it was also noticed that by applying irrigation at 22 days interval, soil water under bed remained within the available soil water range. It was observed that under both methods of planting magnitude of the maximum temperature decreased with an increase in soil water content, but for both high and low soil water contents (SWC), the temperatures were higher by 0.5-3 degrees C at the surface and subsurface (up to 20 cm) under bed than under conventional flat planting. Soil temperature data collected at 2 h interval during the day to monitor the maximum soil temperature showed that magnitudes of the peak at all depths were higher in bed planting and their arrival times were also earlier than in conventional planting. Again, at low SWC, peak soil temperature at the surface was near or higher than aerial temperature and at higher SWC, it was lower than aerial temperature. For similar aerial temperatures (30 degrees C), with an increase in SWC, both volumetric heat capacity and thermal diffusivity increased and their magnitude on bed was lower than that on conventional planting. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Modification of hydrothermal regimes under bed planted wheat,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+783401,"Changes in snow cover over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau have attracted much attention in recent years owing to climate change. Because of the limitations of in situ observations, only a few studies have analyzed the dynamics of snow cover. Using observations from 103 meteorological stations across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, this study investigated the spatial and temporal variability of snow depth and the number of snow-cover days. The results show a very weak negative trend for the snow depth and the number of snow-cover days in spring and winter from 1961 to 2010, but two different trends were found: an initial increase followed by a decrease. In summer and autumn, snow depth and the number of snow-cover days show a significant decreasing trend for most sites. The duration of snow cover exhibits a significant decreasing trend (-3.5 +/- 6 1.2 days decade (-1)), which was jointly controlled by a later snow starting time (1.6 +/- 0.8 days decade(-1)) and an earlier snow ending time (-1.9 +/- 0.8 days decade(-1)) consistent with a response to climate change. This study highlights the competing effects of rising temperatures and changing precipitation, which remain an important challenge in understanding and interpreting the observed changes in snow depth and the number of snow-cover days for the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.",Spatial-Temporal Variability of Snow Cover and Depth in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+14884,"We examine mortality in five terrestrial species of game animals resulting from an extreme flood event in Central Europe in July 1997. We present species-specific mortality rates and collate them with local abundances to show the susceptibilities of the different species to flood mortality. We also compare mortality rates in areas inundated by the main river and by its tributaries. Data were collected in the catchment area of the Odra River, south-western Poland. Mortality was estimated by surveying for drowned animals in flooded areas of 50 hunting districts (2,876 km(2)). Total mortality amounted to 3,613 individuals, mostly of roe deer Capreolus capreolus and brown hare Lepus europaeus. Relative to estimates of abundance, mortality was disproportionately high in hares. Drownings of roe deer and wild boar, Sus scrofa were proportional to local abundance. Young individuals were particularly affected. Mortality was low in foxes, Vulpes vulpes, and red deer, Cervus elaphus. The mortality rate increased with the proportion of area flooded and the duration of flooding and was four times higher along the Odra River than along its tributaries. Our data specify, for the first time, direct losses in wild, large animals in response to an extreme flood event. Despite high overall losses, negative long-term effects on populations seemed unlikely. Nevertheless, to lessen the impact, river management focused primarily on human safety should also integrate the needs of wildlife.",Mortality of game mammals caused by an extreme flooding event in south-western Poland,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+2310275,"Background and Aims Grapevine phenology is closely linked with growing season temperature. Rising temperature related to anthropogenic climate change has the potential to advance winegrape ripening. This study updated and validated previous research that considered changes to the timing of winegrape maturity and to the warming temperature of the growing season as well as added several new vineyard data sets. Length of the harvest period was assessed to determine if time between harvests of different cultivars has shortened. Methods and Results Vineyard records from 31 vineyard blocks in 13 Australian wine regions, in conjunction with gridded temperature data, were used to assess changes to maturity timing and mean growing season temperature. Trends towards earlier maturity were evident as were increases to mean growing season temperature for all vineyard blocks and regions considered. Trends varied in magnitude as well as by cultivar and region. Compression of the harvest period occurred for half of the regions studied. Conclusions Winegrape maturity in Australia has continued to advance in line with warming temperature, which has implications for grape composition and wine quality. Compression of the harvest period was found in some cases, though varied by region and cultivars grown. Significance of the Study This study validated the trend towards earlier winegrape maturity with continued warming temperature and extended a valuable phenological data set. In light of record warming, earlier maturity is becoming the new norm. The method used to investigate compression of the harvest period in this study is applicable to other winegrowing regions worldwide.",Advancement of winegrape maturity continuing for winegrowing regions in Australia with variable evidence of compression of the harvest period,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+10037,"We analysed 12 years of data on the spring migration of the common toad Bufo bufo L. to breeding ponds across 25 locations in Derbyshire, UK, to determine factors influencing the number of toads active per night. We also tested whether the timing of spring migration is predicted by annual variation in temperature or precipitation. More toads migrate in warmer temperatures and as the moon waxes, whereas precipitation did not have a significant effect on toad activity. Across years, spring migration begins earlier in warmer years, but the main migration of toads was not predicted by air temperatures before the onset of the breeding season. Contrary to the majority of studies of amphibian breeding phenology, there has been a temporal shift towards later timing of breeding over the past 12 years. Overall, comparison of our results with that of previous studies suggests that it can be difficult to generalize about the factors that influence breeding phenology, even within species. However, as more studies accumulate, it should be possible to address whether variation in breeding phenology is consistently linked to geographic variation in abiotic conditions or species biology, which will help to evaluate its consequences under climate change.",Factors influencing the timing of spring migration in common toads (Bufo bufo),1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+706725,"High-mountain areas in arid environments are extremely sensitive indicators of sometimes only slight changes of precipitations and temperatures. This holds true especially for the so far under-researched mountain regions of Iran and its immediate neighbours. Climate change, however, is not the only consequence. Climate and environmental changes have deep impacts on the traditionally nomadic population, their economy and lifestyle. Thus, it is justified to speak of both ecological and socio-economic vulnerabilities that characterize the present-day development of Iran's mountain regions. Regional focus of this study is the Sabalan Kuh (4811 m) mountain area in northwestern Iran and its forelands. The paper tries to combine meteorological measurement over a 40-year time span with in-depth analyses of nomadic perceptions, experiences and adaptations to the obvious trends of a rapidly changing natural environment. While temperature increases are statistically significant (tab. 3-6), the analysis of precipitation data is less predicative (Fig. 4). Altogether however, temperature and rainfall trends suggest an increasing exposure of the Shahsevan pastoral nomads to environmental stresses. Interestingly, our analysis of ""objective"" meteorological data shows a high degree of accordance with the empirically founded ""subjective"" experiences of the affected nomads. Thus, their adaptation strategies show a clear trend towards different forms of agro-pastoralism as a reaction to both climate change and changing political as well as socio-economic pressures. This paper therefore concludes that the combination of natural and social science research is not only possible, but indispensable in order to gain insights into the close interactions between nature and society. And it is mandatory in order to develop sustainable development strategies for regions and people under stress. This conclusion holds true especially for studies on local to regional scales!",CLIMATE CHANGE AND MOUNTAIN PASTORALISM - THE SHAHSEVAN OF NORTHWEST IRAN,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+490997,"This study aims at simulating the impacts of climate change on Kurdistan rainfall using 3-dimensional models of the general circulation of the atmosphere. Using data from six synoptic stations and employing Lars model, this study was carried out. The results of the calculation of bias and absolute errors on the modeled parameters for all stations represent that the model's power in coverage of the variance of the parameters under study was considerably acceptable. The best rainfall simulation is observed at Sanandaj station with absolute error of 1.83 and the weakest was 8.22 at Marivan station. The average heavy rainfall in Kurdistan province is increasing for the upcoming climate period ranging from 0.1 day in central parts and north-east Kurdistan to 0.7 day in other parts. The highest rate of increase among the means of heavy rainfall can be observed at the west corner and Marivan station.","Simulation of climate change impacts on South-Western Asia heavy precipitation (case study: Kurdistan Province, Iran)",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+722178,"Extreme temperature events are a great challenge for most ectotherms, particularly for the immature stages of parasitoids, as they do not possess the ability to behaviourally thermoregulate. In this study, we measured the effect of an acute heat shock, combined with desiccation stress (34 degrees C and 35% r.h. during 10h) during the mummy stage on several fitness-related traits of emerging adults of the aphid parasitoid Aphidius colemani Viereck (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Aphidiinae). Our results showed that the emergence rate was strongly affected by the heat shock (63 +/- 2.3 vs. 96.1 +/- 0.7% for stress vs. control conditions, respectively), and the resulting population was male biased. Heat stress reduced the lifespan of emerged parasitoids but had no effect on fat reserves and female size. Egg load at emergence and parasitism rate were also reduced by heat treatment. The antennal symmetry was disturbed by the heat treatment, and stressed individuals had reduced mating success compared to control parasitoids. Specifically, time before wing fanning, a typical male courtship behaviour, was significantly longer in parasitoid pairs involving females that had emerged from heat-treated mummies. Additionally, olfactometry tests on experimental females indicated that their response to host odour was similar to that of control individuals, but they required a longer time for perception. These results highlight that exposure to high temperatures during the mummy stage has cumulative detrimental effects that may strongly impact parasitoid populations under natural conditions and hinder the success of biological control programs.",Usingmultiple traits to estimate the effects of heat shock on the fitness of Aphidius colemani,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1445611,"A regression approach was used to quantitatively estimate the attribution of the notable growth in the river flows of the Plata Basin during 1960-1999. The study was conducted in seven large basins that account for most of the Plata River discharge. Annual rainfall integrated over each basin and annual river flows at their closing points were used for the analysis. The contribution of rainfall changes during each of the three phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation to total rainfall change in these basins was also calculated. The two main drivers for the generalized growth of the river flows were the increased precipitation and the decreased evaporation attributable to land use change, including deforestation of natural forest and crop switch from sugarcane and coffee trees to soybean. Other evaporation changes played a minor role. There was a north-south gradient in the respective importance of each driver, with land use change having greater weight in the northern basins and the precipitation increase in the southern ones. Thus, in the northern part of the Upper Parana Basin, despite the negative trend in precipitation there was a strong augment of the river flow caused by land use change. The contribution to the positive trend of the stream flows in the middle of the Plata Basin came from both land use change and increased precipitation. Finally, in the south, the Uruguay River flow change was basically due to the precipitation trend that was not only observed during the El Nino phase, but also during the Neutral phase. Only in the Middle Paraguay Basin was the shift to more frequent and intense El Nino events that took place in the 1970s an important factor in the contribution of precipitation to streamflow trends. Copyright. 2010 Royal Meteorological Society",Attribution of the river flow growth in the Plata Basin,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+1281369,"Winters and early springs are predicted to become warmer in temperate climates under continued global warming, which in turn is expected to promote earlier plant development. By contrast, there is no consensus about the changes in the occurrence and severity of late spring frosts. If the frequency and severity of late spring frosts remain unchanged in the future or change less than spring phenology of plants does, vulnerable plant organs (dehardened buds, young leaves, flowers or young fruits) may be more exposed to frost damage. Here we analyzed long-term temperature data from the period 1975-2016 in 50 locations in Switzerland and used different phenological models calibrated with long-term series of the flowering and leaf-out timing of two fruit trees (apple and cherry) and two forest trees (Norway spruce and European beech) to test whether the risk of frost damage has increased during this period. Overall, despite the substantial increase in temperature during the study period, the risk of frost damage was not reduced because spring phenology has advanced at a faster rate than the date of the last spring frost. In contrast, we found that the risk of frost exposure and subsequent potential damage has increased for all four species at the vast majority of stations located at elevations higher than 800 m while remaining unchanged at lower elevations. The different trends between lower and higher elevations are due to the date of the last spring frost moving less at higher altitudes than at lower altitudes, combined with stronger phonological shifts at higher elevations. This latter trend likely results from a stronger warming during late compared to earlier spring and from the increasing role of other limiting factors at lower elevations (chilling and photoperiod). Our results suggest that frost risk needs to be considered carefully when promoting the introduction of new varieties of fruit trees or exotic forest tree species adapted to warmer and drier climates or when considering new plantations at higher elevations.",Increase in the risk of exposure of forest and fruit trees to spring frosts at higher elevations in Switzerland over the last four decades,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+245225,"Background: The rising temperature of the world's oceans has become a major threat to coral reefs globally as the severity and frequency of mass coral bleaching and mortality events increase. In 2005, high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean resulted in the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin. Methodology/Principal Findings: Satellite-based tools provided warnings for coral reef managers and scientists, guiding both the timing and location of researchers' field observations as anomalously warm conditions developed and spread across the greater Caribbean region from June to October 2005. Field surveys of bleaching and mortality exceeded prior efforts in detail and extent, and provided a new standard for documenting the effects of bleaching and for testing nowcast and forecast products. Collaborators from 22 countries undertook the most comprehensive documentation of basin-scale bleaching to date and found that over 80% of corals bleached and over 40% died at many sites. The most severe bleaching coincided with waters nearest a western Atlantic warm pool that was centered off the northern end of the Lesser Antilles. Conclusions/Significance: Thermal stress during the 2005 event exceeded any observed from the Caribbean in the prior 20 years, and regionally-averaged temperatures were the warmest in over 150 years. Comparison of satellite data against field surveys demonstrated a significant predictive relationship between accumulated heat stress (measured using NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Degree Heating Weeks) and bleaching intensity. This severe, widespread bleaching and mortality will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for reef ecosystems and suggests a troubled future for tropical marine ecosystems under a warming climate.","Caribbean Corals in Crisis: Record Thermal Stress, Bleaching, and Mortality in 2005",1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+262000,"Himalayan glaciers are a focus of public and scientific debate. Prevailing uncertainties are of major concern because some projections of their future have serious implications for water resources. Most Himalayan glaciers are losing mass at rates similar to glaciers elsewhere, except for emerging indications of stability or mass gain in the Karakoram. A poor understanding of the processes affecting them, combined with the diversity of climatic conditions and the extremes of topographical relief within the region, makes projections speculative. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that dramatic changes in total runoff will occur soon, although continuing shrinkage outside the Karakoram will increase the seasonality of runoff, affect irrigation and hydropower, and alter hazards.",The State and Fate of Himalayan Glaciers,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+3966130,"The electrochemical conversion of CO(2)into fuels and chemicals attracts worldwide attention for tackling global warming and energy crises. However, the efficiencies and selectivities for targeted products such as formate are still far from satisfactory. Herein, core-shell structured Cu2O/Cu@C immobilized on nitrogen-doped graphene sheets (Cu2O/Cu@C/NG) is prepared and used for CO(2)reduction. Cu2O/Cu@C/NG yields higher activity towards formate in terms of a lower onset potential (-0.38 VversusRHE) and higher faradaic efficiency (82.1 +/- 1.2%), as well as stable performance over 30 h. The enhancements in selectivity and activity are attributed to the synergistic effects between Cu sites and N doping, simultaneously improving CO(2)adsorption and the interfacial charge transfer process. Additionally, N doping restrains hydrogen evolution on the copper sites, leaving more available sites for CO(2)reduction. This study provides an efficient strategy to increase the activities of electrocatalysts for CO2-to-formate electroreduction.",Selective CO2-to-formate electrochemical conversion with core-shell structured Cu2O/Cu@C composites immobilized on nitrogen-doped graphene sheets,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+778148,"Short duration dry heat shock similar to the heat of fire is known to be effective in alleviating physical dormancy in seeds, but are we underestimating the impact of the cumulative heat dose of summer soil temperatures on dormancy loss in hard-seeded species in the context of a changing climate? This study investigated short and long duration dry heat treatments in seeds of four Acacia species (Fabaceae) from South-West Western Australia. Seeds were treated at 90, 100, 110 and 120 degrees C for 10 and 180min (fire') and at fluctuating temperatures of 30/20, 55/20, 65/20 degrees C for 14, 28, 56 and 112 days (summer'). The non-dormant seed fraction of each species was low, but seeds were highly viable after scarification. The results indicate the presence of species-specific temperature thresholds for dormancy loss with duration of heating slightly less important than temperature for dormancy break. Seeds remained highly viable after all long duration treatments but short duration heat shock treatments above 110 degrees C resulted in increased seed mortality. Although cumulative periods of lower fluctuating temperatures were less effective in breaking physical dormancy than the heat of fire in three of the four species, more than 40% of seeds of Acacia nigricans (Labill.) R.Br. lost dormancy after 28 days at 65/20 degrees C. These potentially disturbing findings suggest that long hot summer conditions may compromise soil seed bank longevity over time and may be detrimental to the bet-hedging ability afforded by a hard seed coat in some species in the face of climate warming forecasts for the region.",Are we underestimating the impact of rising summer temperatures on dormancy loss in hard-seeded species?,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+745719,"BACKGROUND: In a changing climate, increasing temperatures are anticipated to have profound health impacts. These impacts could be mitigated if individuals and communities adapt to changing exposures; however, little is known about the extent to which the population may be adapting. Objective: We investigated the hypothesis that if adaptation is occurring, then heat-related mortality would be decreasing over time. Methods: We used a national database of daily weather, air pollution, and age-stratified mortality rates for 105 U.S. cities (covering 106 million people) during the summers of 1987-2005. Time-varying coefficient regression models and Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate city-specific, regional, and national temporal trends in heat-related mortality and to identify factors that might explain variation across cities. Results: On average across cities, the number of deaths (per 1,000 deaths) attributable to each 10 F increase in same-day temperature decreased from 51 [95% posterior interval (PI): 42, 61] in 1987 to 19 (95% PI: 12, 27) in 2005. This decline was largest among those >= 75 years of age, in northern regions, and in cities with cooler climates. Although central air conditioning (AC) prevalence has increased, we did not find statistically significant evidence of larger temporal declines among cities with larger increases in AC prevalence. Conclusions: The population has become more resilient to heat over time. Yet even with this increased resilience, substantial risks of heat-related mortality remain. Based on 2005 estimates, an increase in average temperatures by 5 degrees F (central climate projection) would lead to an additional 1,907 deaths per summer across all cities.",Heat-Related Mortality and Adaptation to Heat in the United States,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+602191,"A physically based distributed hydrological model, MIKE SHE, was used to evaluate the effects of altered temperature and precipitation regimes on the streamflow and water table in a forested watershed on the southeastern Atlantic coastal plain. The model calibration and validation against both streamflow and water table depth showed that the MIKE SHE was applicable for predicting the streamflow and water table dynamics for this watershed with an acceptable model efficiency (E > 0.5 for daily streamflow and > 0.75 for monthly streamflow). The simulation results from changing temperature and precipitation scenarios indicate that climate change influences both streamflow and water table in the forested watershed. Compared to current climate conditions, the annual average streamflow increased or decreased by 2.4% with one percentage increase or decrease in precipitation; a quadratic polynomial relationship between changes in water table depth (cm) and precipitation (%) was found. The annual average water table depth and annual average streamflow linearly decreased with an increase in temperature within the range of temperature change scenarios (0-6 degrees C). The simulation results from the potential climate change scenarios indicate that future climate change will substantially impact the hydrological regime of upland and wetland forests on the coastal plain with corresponding implications to altered ecosystem functions that are dependent on water.",SENSITIVITY OF STREAM FLOW AND WATER TABLE DEPTH TO POTENTIAL CLIMATIC VARIABILITY IN A COASTAL FORESTED WATERSHED,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+276487,"The study assesses the effects of climatic and socioeconomic changes on the livelihoods of rural agricultural communities in the Himachal Pradesh of India. The farmers' perceptions on locally idealized traditional weather cycles with climate change are analyzed and compared for different agro climatic zones of Himachal Pradesh. Climate change is described by farmers as temporal displacement of weather cycles, reflecting changes in crop enterprises and livelihood options. Increasing temperature during summers, prolonged summers, delayed onset and uneven distribution of SW monsoon, delayed onset of winter, short winter periods, temperature above normal during winters, decreasing snowfall during winters, delayed snowfall and shorter winters, low temperature spells at high altitudes during winters and unpredictable rainfalls were the main experiences of the farmers regarding climate change across the elevation zones. Farmers' perceptions clearly indicated a shift in crop production in the low and mid hill regions, from crops requiring high moisture, like basmati rice and sugarcane, to those tolerating lower water like maize and local paddy rice. In addition, a shift of the apple growing belt to higher altitudes was noted, with former apple production areas replaced by vegetable crops. The study concludes that climate variability has a clear impact on crop productivity. In all elevations, farmers opined that a shift of labor earlier engaged in agriculture, to other enterprises is primarily due to handsome earnings in other enterprises, reflecting reduction in profits from agriculture and increase in vulnerability in climate dependent agricultural systems. Farmers in marginal areas are more vulnerable than small and large farmers from sub tropical climates in the mid hills to sub temperate climates at higher elevations.","Indigenous perceptions of Climate change vis-a-vis Mountain Agricultural activities in Himachal Pradesh, India",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3303459,"Winter warming is fast than summer warming on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, no assessment of winter warming effects on permafrost has been attempted. Here we conducted hypothetical control experiments and used the Noah land surface model to evaluate the impacts of winter warming on the QTP permafrost. The results show that air temperature in winter (November-April) was increasing at a rate of 0.66 degrees C/decade during 1980s-2000s, over double that in summer (May-October). The mean annual ground temperature of permafrost increased by 0.13 degrees C/decade. The summer warming dominated the variations in thermal regime of permafrost before 2000. After that, the influence of winter warming on permafrost thermal regime has gradually grown and exceeded that of summer warming. Winter warming has amplified the thermal degradation of permafrost. Our findings reveal that alpine continuous permafrost on the northern QTP has experienced a prominent regional warming due to rapid winter warming since 2000.",The Role of Winter Warming in Permafrost Change Over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+345879,"To predict how climate change will influence populations, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms, particularly microevolution and phenotypic plasticity, that allow populations to persist in novel environmental conditions. Although evidence for climate-induced phenotypic change in populations is widespread, evidence documenting that these phenotypic changes are due to microevolution is exceedingly rare. In this study, we use 32 years of genetic data (17 complete generations) to determine whether there has been a genetic change towards earlier migration timing in a population of pink salmon that shows phenotypic change; average migration time occurs nearly two weeks earlier than it did 40 years ago. Experimental genetic data support the hypothesis that there has been directional selection for earlier migration timing, resulting in a substantial decrease in the late-migrating phenotype (from more than 30% to less than 10% of the total abundance). From 1983 to 2011, there was a significant decrease-over threefold-in the frequency of a genetic marker for late-migration timing, but there were minimal changes in allele frequencies at other neutral loci. These results demonstrate that there has been rapid microevolution for earlier migration timing in this population. Circadian rhythm genes, however, did not show any evidence for selective changes from 1993 to 2009.",Genetic change for earlier migration timing in a pink salmon population,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+213581,"The management of maritime pine in fire-prone habitats is a challenging task and fine-scale population genetic analyses are necessary to check if different fire recurrences affect genetic variability. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of fire recurrence on maritime pine genetic diversity using inter-simple sequence repeat markers (ISSR). Thre emaritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) populations from Northern Portugal were chosen to characterize the genetic variability among populations. In relation to fire recurrence, Seiros population was affected by fire both in 1990 and 2005 whereas Vila Seca-2 population was affected by fire just in 2005. The Vila Seca-1 population has been never affected by fire. Our results showed the highest Nei's genetic diversity (He = 0.320), Shannon information index (I = 0.474) and polymorphic loci (PPL = 87.79%) among samples from twice burned populations (Seiros site). Thus, fire regime plays an important role affecting genetic diversity in the short-term, although not generating maritime pine genetic erosion. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",Evaluation of fire recurrence effect on genetic diversity in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands using Inter- Simple Sequence Repeat profiles,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+412932,"Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.",Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+693004,"The Arctic cryosphere is a critically important component of the earth system, affecting the energy balance, atmospheric and ocean circulation, freshwater storage, sea level, the storage, and release of large quantities of greenhouse gases, economy, infrastructure, health, and indigenous and non-indigenous livelihoods, culture and identity. Currently, components of the Arctic cryosphere are subjected to dramatic change due to global warming. The need to document, understand, project, and respond to changes in the cryosphere and their consequences stimulated a comprehensive international assessment called ""SWIPA'': Snow, Water, Ice, Permafrost in the Arctic. Some of the extensive key SWIPA chapters have been summarized and made more widely available to a global audience with multi-disciplinary interests in this Special Report of Ambio. In this article, an overview is provided of this Special Report in the context of the more detailed and wider scope of the SWIPA Report. Accelerated changes in major components of the Arctic cryosphere are documented. Evidence of feedback mechanisms between the cryosphere and other parts of the climate system are identified as contributing factors to enhanced Arctic warming while the growing importance of Arctic land-based ice as a contributor to global sea-level rise is quantified. Cryospheric changes will result in multifaceted and cascading effects for people within and beyond the Arctic presenting both challenges and opportunities.",The Changing Arctic Cryosphere and Likely Consequences: An Overview,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2314522,"According to conventional models of reciprocal sedimentation for tropical mixed siliciclastic-carbonate systems, shedding of carbonate material dominates slope and basin sedimentation during transgression and highstand while siliciclastic deposition dominates during lowstand. This understanding permeates the stratigraphic literature and is the accepted depositional model on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) margin. The results of this study, however, document coeval carbonate and siliciclastic highstand deposition on the GBR slope and basin. Seafloor sediment from Queensland Trough slopes and basin floor cast of the GBR contains 20% to 50% terrigenous siliciclastic material. One hundred and twenty-six sediment samples were obtained from core tops and sediments grabs previously retrieved from shelf, slope, and basin environments of the North Queensland Margin. These samples were analyzed for their carbonate content, mineralogy, and major-element composition. The amount of terrigenous siliciclastic material in sediment from the North Queensland Margin can be approximated by three independent methods: (1) the noncarbonate residual, (2) the sum of quartz, clays, and feldspars, and (3) the sum of SiO2, Al2O3, Fe2O3, and TiO2. All three tracers show a distinct distribution of siliciclastic sediment across the margin. Shelf siliciclastic content is highest on the inner shelf, decreasing eastward toward the GBR, with the exception of relatively high siliciclastic content in several interreef passages. Queensland Trough siliciclastic content is highest on the slope and basin between 15 degrees and 17 degrees S latitude, decreasing to the south and east. Although the relative abundances of quartz and clay minerals vary across the margin, the chemistry suggests a similar origin for the siliciclastic material. Moreover, the zone of high siliciclastic abundance in Queensland Trough reflects enhanced siliciclastic accumulation. Siliciclastic material escapes the outer shelf to Queensland Trough through interreef passages between 15 degrees and 17 degrees S latitude. It is then focused to the south by ocean currents. Siliciclastic sediment is likely sourced from a combination of rivers transporting Holocene sediment to the GBR shelf and late Pleistocene sediment eroded from the outer shelf and reworked to Queensland Trough. Siliciclastic material crosses the shelf, although the mechanisms (e.g., river plumes, nepheloid layers, tidal currents, cyclones, mushroom jets) remain poorly constrained. However, shelf width is clearly an important factor in allowing cross-shelf transport to occur. Mass-balance calculations indicate that up to 13% of the late Holocene annual riverine sediment output may be delivered to Queensland Trough. Modern and ancient mixed system depositional models must be reevaluated to allow for the possibility of coeval siliciclastic and carbonate deposition.",Siliciclastic sediment across the north queensland margin (Australia): A Holocene perspective on reciprocal versus coeval deposition in tropical mixed siliciclastic-carbonate systems,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+157916,"Increasing temperatures and shifting precipitation regimes define the Mediterranean Basin (MB) as one of the world's most sensitive climate change hot spots. Among various ecological effects, disruptions in the growth-climate response of Mediterranean forest species have been recently observed. Complex topographical and climatological factors, however, may result in contrasting patterns of recent tree growth, with their biotic and abiotic drivers often remaining debatable. Here, we compile dendrochronological evidence from 878 cases at 645 sites reported in 66 peer-reviewed publications to assess modern (post-1970) growth trends across the MB (30 degrees-46 degrees N and 10 degrees W-40 degrees E). This collection mainly reveals positive trends in temperate environments across the northwestern part of the Basin, whereas negative trends were often found at xeric sites in the southwestern and eastern regions. Although these response patterns are indicative for both beneficial as well as detrimental effects of climate change on pan-Mediterranean forest ecosystem function and productivity, our review is slightly biased by selective sampling efforts that focused on higher elevations and older trees within a few countries in the northwest. This imbalance emphasizes the need for more evenly distributed study sites and age classes that better reflect ecological rather than political and methodological criteria.",Spatial diversity of recent trends in Mediterranean tree growth,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+1498398,"The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a thermal environment where air temperature closer to the ground was lower compared to that above on thermal comfort and mental performance in both sexes. Temperatures at the upper and lower parts of the body were controlled independently using a climatic box placed in a climatic chamber. Sixteen healthy subjects (8 males and 8 females) were exposed to the four conditions with various temperature differences between the upper (25A degrees C) and lower part of the body (16, 19, 22, or 25A degrees C). Skin temperature and subjective votes were measured, and two kinds of task using a computer were performed during exposure. Skin temperature on the back for females was higher than that for males during exposure, and the decrease in thigh skin temperature for females under lower air temperature conditions was significantly larger than that for males. A significant difference in thermal comfort at the beginning of the exposure was indicated between genders, especially in the 16 and 19A degrees C conditions, so females became aware of thermal discomfort before males. Although the score of mental performance based on perceptual speed for females was higher than that for males, there was no significant effect from the different vertical air temperatures. The effect of the unequal thermal environment, where air temperature closer to the ground was lower than above, on skin temperature and thermal discomfort for females was significantly higher compared to males.",Gender differences in thermal comfort and mental performance at different vertical air temperatures,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3539787,"The impact of thermal hazards on process buildings is an important component of site hazard evaluations. API RP-752 recommends that process facilities analyze thermal hazards and assess their impact to onsite buildings and their occupants. Thermal loads. resulting from fires in process units and equipment can have a significant impact on buildings, especially if the building is close to the fire source. Some buildings may be designed for blast and toxic protection, which allows the buildings to be located near process units and equipment, but possibly exposed to thermal hazards from a potential fire. Screening-level thermal models typically used in process safety applications cannot account for detailed building geometries and how they may affect thermal impact from fire on building occupants. A more robust approach using the Fire Dynamics Simulator Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code has been used in this study to assess the impact of thermal hazards on a target building located downstream of a jet fire. Temperature and radiation increases inside the building due to the thermal loads at the building exterior surface were calculated. The results indicate that buildings can provide protection to occupants depending on exposure time and building/insulation design. The results clearly show that a detailed CFD model can be effectively used to assess the thermal impact of incident radiation on buildings and to assist designers with determining requirements for the building envelope to provide protection to building occupants.",IMPACT OF THERMAL HAZARDS ON PROCESS BUILDINGS USING CFD TECHNIQUES,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+713279,"For sustainable water resource management, it is important to determine the relationship between streamflow and other variables that influence availability of water resources. However, many catchments do not have sufficient data to allow for a more detailed study of these relationships. We faced a similar challenge in the Chengcun Basin (limited historical data: from 1986-1999); and therefore we used a new approach to overcome this. We found that, using nonparametric trend methods in conjunction with the climate elasticity analyses and the 2D visualization of hydrologic data, it is possible to assess the relationships between streamflow and other hydro-climatic variables. In the past, streamflow trends in the basin were more correlated with precipitation than with potential evapotranspiration (PET). In addition, there is a gradual shift in the hydrological regime of the catchment, which may affect the occurrence of available water resources and activities that depend on them. In addition, based on our climate sensitivity analyses, the streamflow is dependent and more sensitive to variations in precipitation than to PET (delta Q=0.79 delta P+0.42 delta E; precipitation elasticity, E > (P) =1.32; PET elasticity, E > (E) =-2.10). Therefore pending more detailed studies, the use of our approach will provide a rapid means to assess the variation of water resources (streamflow) in a watershed. In the future, we hope to carry out related research in other watersheds and also perform a more detailed studies to improve upon the results of this study.","Inter-annual variation of streamflow, precipitation and evaporation in a small humid watershed (Chengcun Basin, China)",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+158974,"Global warming is expected to enhance radial tree growth at alpine treeline sites worldwide. We developed a well-replicated tree-ring chronology from Nothofagus pumilio near treeline in a high precipitation climate on Choshuenco Volcano (40 degrees S) in Chile to examine: (a) variation in tree radial growth in relation to interannual climatic variability; and (b) relationships of radial growth to variability in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) at interannual and decadal time scales. A tree-ring chronology based on 99 tree-ring series from 80 N. pumilio trees near treeline showed a high series intercorrelation (0.48) indicating a strong common environmental signal. Radial growth is negatively correlated with precipitation in late spring (November-December). Temperature and tree growth are positively correlated during late spring and early summer (November-January). Interannual variability in both seasonal climate and in tree growth is strongly teleconnected to ENSO and AAO variability. Radial growth of N. pumilio in this humid high-elevation forest does not show a positive trend over the past half century as predicted from global treeline theory and broadscale warming in the Patagonian-Andean region. Instead, tree growth increased sharply from the 1960s to a peak in the early 1980s but subsequently declined for c. 30 years to its lowest level in >100 years. The shift to higher radial growth after c. 1976 coincides with a shift towards warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific which in turn are associated with warmer growing season temperatures. The decline in tree growth since the mid-1990s is coincident with the increasingly positive phase of the AA0 and high spring precipitation periods associated with El Nino conditions. The recent shift towards reduced growth of N. pumilio at this humid high-elevation site coincident with rising MO mirrors the reduced tree growth beginning in the 1960s for trees growing in relatively xeric, lower elevation sites throughout the Patagonian-Andean region. The current study indicates that N. pumilio growth response in humid high-elevation environments to recent broad-scale warming has been non-linear, and that MO and ENSO are key climatic forcings of tree growth variability. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Relationships between climate variability and radial growth of Nothofagus pumilio near altitudinal treeline in the Andes of northern Patagonia, Chile",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+568621,"Anthropogenic climate change is a relatively new phenomenon, largely occurring over the past 150 years, and much of the discussion on climate change impacts to forests has focused on long-term shifts in temperature and precipitation. However, individual trees respond to the much shorter impacts of climate variability. Historically, fast growing, fully canopied, non-chronically stressed (NCS) trees (e.g., those with minimal insect or disease damage, growing on high nutrient, moist soils), have been considered the model of individual health, while slower growing, broken crown, chronically stressed (CS) trees growing on nutrient poor, or dry soils, were considered to be unhealthy and prone to stress related mortality. Over the coming years and decades, climate variability (e.g., extreme precipitation events, drought, heat waves) is expected to increase. We hypothesize that as the duration, severity and interaction of stress becomes more pronounced under increasing climate variability, seemingly less healthy, CS trees could begin to survive environmental stress better than their traditionally considered healthy, NCS tree counterparts. We further hypothesize that this shift in survivorship will be attributed to tree response to increasingly extreme climate variability at levels not previously observed in recorded history. While NCS trees can better survive historic episodic stress, we hypothesize that CS trees may be better suited to survive the combination of chronic low-level stress, and extreme episodic stress associated with anthropogenic climate change and increasing climate variability. Specifically, morphological differences such as increased root and reduced leaf mass, and physiological differences such as more oleoresin production, could make slower growing, CS forests more resilient to catastrophic episodic mortality compared to more NCS stands under certain circumstances. General circulation models suggest that climate variability will increase in the future. Therefore, the occurrence of slow growth, CS forest stands out surviving faster growing NCS less stressed stands may become more common place, and eventually lead to ""The Age of the Mediocre Forest"". This paper addresses the type of environmental conditions that could create such an inverse in forest health conditions, and the implications that this shift might have in forest genetics and management.",The rise of the mediocre forest: why chronically stressed trees may better survive extreme episodic climate variability,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1615220,"Diverse tree species, understory bamboos, shrubs, and herbs in mixed deciduous forests (MDFs) provide not only timber, but also non-timber forest products (NM's) in terms of fuel, food, and medicinal plants. Sustainability and the economic value of commercially extracted NTFPs have been studied mainly for the aboveground vegetative components of plants. However, such important knowledge of the underground parts of the plants is limited because of difficulties observing them and lesser consideration of the lower value of NTFPs, compared with timber, in forest management. Here we established allometric models to predict the root and corm biomasses of two plants, Rauvolfia serpentina and AmotphophaUus bulbifer, in relation to their aboveground, vegetative parts. Estimated underground biomasses of the two species were compared among three habitat types: a swidden field, a fallow forest after cultivation, and a ridge forest that was not subjected to swidden agriculture. The length of the longest leaf of each individual plant explained the accumulation of the underground biomass of R. serpentina (R-2 = 0.64, P < 0.001) in a positive, linear relationship, and stem diameter at ground level did the same for A. bulbifer (R-2 = 0.92, P < 0.001). The largest biomass accumulation of R. serpentina was found in swidden fields because of its light demanding nature, which was supported by a significant, negative correlation between canopy cover and leaf length (Pearson's correlation = 0.612, P < 0.05). Because A. bulbifer was cut during weeding time, we could not measure its biomass accumulation in swidden fields; however, its occurrence in swidden fields was confirmed by farmers and field observations. No difference in the biomass accumulation of A. bulbifer was observed between the fallow and ridge forests. The promising growth of both species in the same year that a fire occurred during swidden cultivation suggests that the underground regeneration source provides advantages related to the harvesting of NTFPs and allows them to co-exist with slashing and burning in a swidden system, as well as surface fires in an MDF. Establishment of the two species in fallow vegetation was possibly facilitated by ecological and anthropogenic factors such as the reproductive bulbils of A. bulbifer and the broken root fragments of R. serpentina left after the harvest, as well as the dormancy period of these species during the dry season. This study revealed the cultivation potential of NTFPs that are suitable for community and agroforest plantations using a swidden system in an MDF that experiences fires.","Underground biomass accumulation of two economically important non-timber forest products is influenced by ecological settings and swiddeners' management in the Sago Mountains, Myanmar",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+2091689,"Vegetation changes in Sahelian West Africa have been increasingly investigated since 1970 due to the catastrophic droughts in the early 1970s and 1980s and the following decades with below average precipitation. In most cases this was done by remote sensing and vegetation studies. In recent years, local knowledge of farmers and pastoralists about vegetation changes has been increasingly investigated. In this paper, information from different case studies in three West African countries (Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal) was used to analyse and evaluate vegetation changes in the Sahel. In total, data were analysed from 25 villages, where the local people were asked to mention plant species and qualify their present occurrence compared to the past. In total, 111 woody species were mentioned as having changed compared to the past, of which 79% were classified as having decreased or disappeared. For each single location 8-59 different woody species were mentioned. In most cases, these are valuable species of socio-economic importance. Only 11% of the species was classified as increasing or new (0-12 were mentioned per location), the later being mainly exotic species. Ten percent were categorised differently among villages. A comparison of local knowledge from different locations provide regional scale information on endangered species and thereby crucial information for making insightful priorities for assisted regeneration, reforestation and conservation strategies. © 2006 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.",Woody vegetation change in Sahelian West Africa: Evidence from local knowledge,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+615055,"The interest toward new renewable energy in relation to securing eco-friendly resources is increasing due to the environmental problems such as global warming and the importance of reducing greenhouse gas. Due to this, various research and developments using GIS analysis method are being performed for the national new renewable energy resources information. In this study, sunlight analysis system to be used for the evaluation of new renewable resources quantity including solar energy has been developed while enabling performance of shadow analysis and simulation according to the solar azimuth using the existing GIS and image data. In addition, the extraction of space information of the impact factor was developed for the resource quantity evaluation. In conclusion, the sunlight analysis system developed through this study can be used for the development of national new energy management system by computerization of the data based on spatial information. It is expected to achieve the efficient management of the main location for green growth renewable energy. Copyright© (2013) by the Asian Association on Remote Sensing.",The development of Korean type solar energy resources quantity matching and evaluation system using GIS,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+1483026,"Background: Human infection with Clonorchis sinensis is still a big public health problem in Guangzhou. To investigate the correlation between clonorchiasis and climatic factors, we analyzed the clonorchiasis reported cases and simultaneous meteorological data during 2006-2012 in Guangzhou City, China. Findings: Annual incidence rate of clonorchiasis from 2006 to 2012 was 166.76, 191.55, 247.37, 213.82, 246.03, 274.71, and 239.63 (per 100 000), respectively. Each 1 degrees C rise of temperature corresponded to an increase of 1.18% (95% CI 0.88% to 1.48%) in the monthly number of cases, and a one millimeter rise of rainfall corresponded to increase of 0.03% (95% CI 0.01% to 0.04%). Whereas each one percent rise of relative humidity corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 1.51% (95% CI -1.75% to -1.27%). Conclusions: We reported incidence rates of clonorchiasis showed an increasing trend by years. Temperature and rainfall were positively associated with clonorchiasis incidence, while relative humidity was inversely associated with clonorchiasis incidence. Our study provided evidence that climatic factors affect the occurrence of clonorchiasis in Guangzhou city, China.","Correlation between clonorchiasis incidences and climatic factors in Guangzhou, China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+791374,"Questions: Terrestrial vegetation is assumed to be highly vulnerable to climate change in the Arctic, which has experienced the highest rates of temperature increase globally over the past decades. However, long-term studies at the community scale are rare, particularly for the European High Arctic. We ask: (1) has Arctic vegetation changed over the past century; (2) can observed changes be related to recent climate change; and (3) do observed changes in vegetation prevail for specific species or species functional groups? Location: The Svalbard Archipelago, High Arctic Norway. Methods: In 2009 we resurveyed three plant sociological studies up to 85 yrs after the first surveys. Vegetation data were recorded from 1-m(2) non-permanently marked plots, and soil pH was measured. We applied restricted permutation tests to evaluate whether observed changes in vegetation (species richness, occurrence frequency, coverage) and in soil pH were significant and independent of plant community type. We compared species co-occurrences over time to study changes in species composition and to identify the species most likely causing these changes. Results: Total number of species and average number of species per plot has not changed, and are 75 and nine, respectively. Occurrence frequency changed significantly for 34% of the 64 species tested (11 species increased, 11 decreased). Species cover decreased significantly for 27% of the species and increased for one species. Observed changes in frequency and cover are not significantly related to species' functional groups or species affiliated to moist or dry habitats. Polygonum viviparum, Saxifraga cernua and Alopecurus borealis have changed most in co-occurring with other species. Soil pH increased significantly from 6.4 to 6.8. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the strong climatic warming in the High Arctic over the past decades has contributed to significant changes in the vegetation studied on Svalbard over the past 85 yrs. Internal community restructuring and the overall stability in species richness may be explained by time-delayed responses of well-established communities, and/ or by a limited size of the species pool in the area.","Large climate change, large effect? Vegetation changes over the past century in the European High Arctic",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+424067,"Global electricity demands are increasing at rapid pace. Energy supply, their usage and technologies involved need to be more economical, environment friendly and socially sustainable. Efforts are being done all over the globe to reduce this greenhouse effect; and renewable energy technologies to combat climate changes, which require extensive changes to the current electricity generation and distribution systems. To meet this goal, it is required to optimize the grid operations and available resources to meet the ever increasing energy demands in an efficient, effective and environment sustainable way. It has been found that smart grid technologies have not been so popular due to some obstacles that are hindering its maturation and rapid deployment. An attempt has been made to identify and analyze the barriers to implement smart grid technologies adoption. Twelve relevant barriers towards implementation of smart grid technologies have been identified from extensive literature review and duly validated with experts' (from academia and industry) opinions. Also, valuable experts' opinions have been utilized to identify contextual relationships among these important barriers and a hierarchical model has been developed based on Interpretive Structural Modeling methodology. Matrice d'Impacts Croises-Multipication Applique' an Classment (MICMAC) analysis has also been used to: classify the barriers based upon dependence and driving power; and validate developed ISM based model. ""Lack of Regulatory Framework"" barrier has been identified as driver or independent level barrier i.e. most important bottom level barrier hindering adoption of smart grid technologies. The developed structured model will help to understand interrelationships and interdependencies among the identified barriers to implement smart grid technologies. Different solutions for handling these identified barriers have also been suggested in the paper. Organizations involved in power generation and distribution may be benefited by understanding of these barriers, their interactions and suggested mitigation solutions towards effective adoption of smart grid technologies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Adoption of smart grid technologies: An analysis of interactions among barriers,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3933255,"Habitat choice and interactions of foraging shorebirds and gulls were studied at a migratory stopover in Delaware Bay, New Jersey. Foraging, vigilance, aggressive behavior, and habitat choice of shorebirds were affected by the presence of gulls. There were significant differences in the time each species devoted to actively feeding; knots spent significantly less time foraging than did the other species. Birds congregated in the habitats where their foraging rates were the highest. When turnstones and laughing gulls fed in larger conspecific flocks, they had higher foraging times. Red knots were most aggressive toward laughing gulls, turnstones were most aggressive toward herring gulls, sanderlings were most aggressive toward turnstones, and semipalmated sandpipers were most aggressive toward knots. There were significant differences in habitat use: 1) Gulls and turnstones were more abundant along the tide line, 2) turnstones were more abundant on the upper beach, 3) semipalmated sandpipers and turnstones were more abundant on sandbars, 4) only gulls fed on the beach mud, and 5) laughing gulls and semipalmated sandpipers were more common along creeks than were the other species. Within 5 minutes of a human disturbance, gulls returned to predisturbance levels, while the shorebirds did not. Shorebirds responded most strongly to the presence of dogs than to other disturbances and did not return to beaches following a disturbance by a dog. These observations suggest that there may be some competition for foraging space among foraging species, especially between the shorebirds and the larger gulls, that human disturbance affects shorebirds more strongly than gulls, and that shorebirds and gulls use the habitats differently. The data can be used to manage human disturbance and to protect habitats where the shorebirds have the highest foraging rates, but the least exposure to gulls.","Habitat choice, disturbance, and management of foraging shorebirds and gulls at a migratory stopover",1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+286777,"We analyze a daily series of rainfall, snowfall, air temperature, and snow water equivalent at fixed dates from 40 high-altitude stations on the Adamello Glacier area (Italian Alps), for the period 1965-2007. Purposes of the study are (1) to investigate significant variation in time, (2) to evaluate effect of temperature changes on cryospheric water cycle, and (3) to evaluate underlying climate patterns and the most significant variables for climate change studies. We detect the presence of a trend using linear regression, moving window average and Mann Kendall test. Linear dependence of water related variables on temperatures is assessed. We find substantially unchanged atmospheric water input along with increasing temperature and rainfall, decreasing snowfall and snow water equivalent at thaw, and shortening of snow cover extent and duration. We carry out a principal components analysis which highlights patterns of precipitation distribution resulting from local temperature and external forcing. A set of the most representative variables for climate and glacier studies is then assessed. A comparison with three nearby Southern Alpine glacierized areas in Italy and Switzerland shows substantial agreement. In spite of the relative shortness of the series, the results here are of interest and can be used as a benchmark for climate change impact assessment for the Adamello Glacier area and southern Alps.",Evidence of climate change within the Adamello Glacier of Italy,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+2491617,"Background: Temperature mortality relationships have been extensively probed with varying temperature range but with relatively similar patterns and in some instances are being modified by specific mortality groups such as causes of mortality, sex, and age. Objective: This study aimed to determine the risk attributions in the extreme temperatures and also identified the risks associated with the various mortality subgroups. Design: We used the 2006-2010 daily average meteorological and daily mortality variables from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration and Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office, respectively. Mortality data were divided according to cause (cardiovascular and respiratory), sex, and age (0-14 years, 15-64 years, and > 64 years). We performed a two-stage analysis to estimate the extreme temperature effects stratified by the different mortality subgroups to observe the effect modification. Results: In the pooled analysis, greater risks were observed in the extreme high temperature (99th temperature percentile; RR (relative risk) = 2.48 CI: 1.55-3.98)compared to the extreme low temperature (1st temperature percentile; RR = 1.23 CI: 0.88-1.72). Furthermore, effect modification by mortality subgroups was evident, especially higher risks for extreme temperatures with respiratory-related diseases, women, and elderly. Conclusions: Both sex and age were found to effect modify the risks in extreme temperatures of tropical cities; hence, health-related policies should take these risk variations into consideration to create strategies with respect to the risk population.",Effect modification in the temperature extremes by mortality subgroups among the tropical cities of the Philippines,1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+377564,"Crop yields are influenced by growing season length, which are determined by temperature and agronomic management, such as sowing date and changes in cultivars. It is essential to quantify the interaction between climate change and crop management on crop phenology to understand the adaptation of farming systems to climate change. Historical changes in winter wheat phenology have been observed across the Loess Plateau of China during 1981-2009. The observed dates of sowing, emergence, and beginning of winter dormancy were delayed by an average of 1.2, 1.3, and 1.2 days decade(-1), respectively. Conversely, the dates of green-up (regrowth after winter dormancy), anthesis, and maturity advanced by an average of 2.0, 3.7, and 3.1 days decade(-1), respectively. Additionally, the growth duration (sowing to maturity), overwintering period, and vegetative phase (sowing to anthesis) shortened by an average of 4.3, 3.1, and 5.0 days decade(-1), respectively. The changes in phenological stages and phases were significantly negatively correlated with a temperature increase during this time. Differently to most other phase changes, the reproductive phase (anthesis to maturity) prolonged by an average of 0.7 day decade(-1), but this was spatially variable. The prolonged reproductive phase was due to advanced anthesis dates and consequently caused the reproductive phase to occur during a cooler part of the season, which led to an extended reproductive phase. Applying a crop simulation model using a field-tested standard cultivar across locations and years indicated that the simulated phenological stages have accelerated with the warming trend more than the observed phenological stages. This indicated that, over the last decades, later sowing dates and the introduction of new cultivars with longer thermal time requirement have compensated for some of the increased temperature-induced changes in wheat phenology. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.","Impacts of recent climate warming, cultivar changes, and crop management on winter wheat phenology across the Loess Plateau of China",1.0,1.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+116340,"Information on distribution and relative abundance of species is integral to sustainable management, especially if they are to be harvested for subsistence or commerce. In northern Australia, natural landscapes are vast, centers of population few, access is difficult, and Aboriginal resource centers and communities have limited funds and infrastructure. Consequently defining distribution and relative abundance by comprehensive ground survey is difficult and expensive. This highlights the need for simple, cheap, automated methodologies to predict the distribution of species in use, or having potential for use. in commercial enterprise. The technique applied here uses a Geographic Information System (GIS) to make predictions of probability of occurrence using an inductive modeling technique based on Bayes' theorem. The study area is in the Maningrida region, central Arnhem Land, in the Northern Territory, Australia. The species examined, Cycas arnhernica and Brachychiton diversifolius, are currently being 'wild harvested' in commercial trials, involving sale of decorative plants and use as carving wood, respectively. This study involved limited and relatively simple ground surveys requiring approximately 7 days of effort for each species. The overall model performance was evaluated using Cohen's kappa statistics. The predictive ability of the model for C arnhemica was classified as moderate and for R diversifolius as fair. The difference in model performance can be attributed to the pattern of distribution of these species. C. arnhemica tends to occur in a clumped distribution due to relatively short distance dispersal of its large seeds and vegetative growth from long-lived rhizomes, while B. diversifolius seeds are smaller and more widely dispersed across the landscape. The output from analysis predicts trends in species distribution that are consistent with independent on-site sampling for each species and therefore should prove useful in gauging the extent of resource availability. However, some caution needs to be applied as the models tend to over predict presence which is a function of distribution patterns and of other variables operating in the landscape such as fire histories which were not included in the model due to limited availability of data. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Assisting Australian indigenous resource management and sustainable utilization of species through the use of GIS and environmental modeling techniques,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3310617,"The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an ecologically fragile region that is sensitive to climate change. In the context of global climate change, the climate change trends of the TP and the vegetation dynamic response need to be investigated. Based on in situ meteorological data, Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre vegetation data, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land cover data, a comprehensive analysis was conducted to determine the trends of climate parameters in the TP region at different time scales (long term: 1960-2014; midterm: 1980-2014; short term 1999-2014). A consistent warming trend was observed for different temporal scales, while a warming slowdown was identified during 1999 and 2014. The warming rate was also shown to be much higher in the high-altitude regions (>4,000 m), especially at midterm and short-term time scales. A new cloud-free time series of vegetation index data sets was reconstructed, and the vegetation density showed a general increasing trend along with a warming trend in the TP. The regions showing significant increases accounted for 7.63% of the total Tibetan territory. The major significant greening trend of the TP was mainly caused by climate factors. The reforestation projects may have played a minor role in the vegetation greening in specific regions of the TP. In addition, various vegetation types showed markedly different responses to climate changes. The grassland in semiarid regions, which accounted for 41.9% of the territory of the TP, was identified to be very sensitive to variations in both temperature and precipitation.",Climate Change Trends and Impacts on Vegetation Greening Over the Tibetan Plateau,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+177417,"Mass loss by glaciers has been an important contributor to sea level rise in the past, and is projected to contribute a substantial fraction of total sea level rise during the 21st century. Here, we use a model of the world's glaciers to quantify equilibrium sensitivities of global glacier mass to climate change, and to investigate the role of changes in glacier hypsometry for long-term mass changes. We find that 21st century glacier-mass loss is largely governed by the glacier's response to 20th century climate change. This limits the influence of 21st century climate change on glacier-mass loss, and explains why there are relatively small differences in glacier-mass loss under greatly different scenarios of climate change. The projected future changes in both temperature and precipitation experienced by glaciers are amplified relative to the global average. The projected increase in precipitation partly compensates for the mass loss caused by warming, but this compensation is negligible at higher temperature anomalies since an increasing fraction of precipitation at the glacier sites is liquid. Loss of low-lying glacier area, and more importantly, eventual complete disappearance of glaciers, strongly limit the projected sea level contribution from glaciers in coming centuries. The adjustment of glacier hypsometry to changes in the forcing strongly reduces the rates of global glacier-mass loss caused by changes in global mean temperature compared to rates of mass loss when hypsometric changes are neglected. This result is a second reason for the relatively weak dependence of glacier-mass loss on future climate scenario, and helps explain why glacier-mass loss in the first half of the 20th century was of the same order of magnitude as in the second half of the 20th century, even though the rate of warming was considerably smaller.",Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+688306,"Concern exists about future changes to air-temperature gradients along large ""northward""-flowing Arctic rivers having the potential to affect the timing and severity of spring river-ice breakup, and associated flooding events. To evaluate the significance of this concern, an analysis was conducted of temporal and spatial changes to the spring 0 degrees C air-temperature isotherm (I-0 degrees C), which is also known to be a good index for the timing of spring melt/breakup conditions. Changes in I-0 degrees C were analyzed for the downstream 2000-km main-stem reaches of four large Arctic rivers: the Lena, Mackenzie, Ob and Yenisey. Current climatic conditions (1979-2008) were compared to those of two future climatic periods (2041-2070 and 20712100) projected by an ensemble of four Global Climate Models. Future projections show I-0 degrees C chronology patterns along the rivers that closely parallel current conditions, but with earlier dates varying from an ensemble mean of 7.5 (13.6) to 16.5 (25.5) days for the 2050s (2080s). Results also reveal a progressive downstream increase in warming under future climates. At the time when headwater temperatures reach 0 degrees C, river mouth to headwater temperature differences for the four rivers decrease by an average of 0.8 degrees C (2.4 degrees C) to 2.1 degrees C (3.7 degrees C) for the 2050s (2080s). The implications of such decreases on the severity of spring ice-jam floods are discussed. Citation: Prowse, T., R. Shrestha, B. Bonsal, and Y. Dibike (2010), Changing spring air-temperature gradients along large northern rivers: Implications for severity of river-ice floods, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L19706, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044878.",Changing spring air-temperature gradients along large northern rivers: Implications for severity of river-ice floods,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+695683,"This paper reviews the possible future situation of the Rhone River in the Swiss part of its catchment. Physical processes in the Alps govern the behaviour of the Rhone from its source (Rhone Glacier) to the Lake of Geneva, and substantial changes are expected to occur in the amount and seasonality of precipitation, and in the response of snow and glaciers to a warming climate. As a result, discharge in the alpine part of the Rhone River is likely to undergo an increase in winter and early spring, but strongly decreases from late spring to late autumn. These changes in water regimes will certainly be accompanied by more frequent geomorphic hazards, related to increases in heavy precipitation events and the melting of permanently frozen grounds. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, and agriculture, while shifts in extreme events will have an impact on the vulnerability of infrastructure and a range of economic sectors and services. Projections of the future course of events can help in advance planning and decision making in order to alleviate some of the more negative consequences of climate and hydrological impacts on key economic sectors in the region. This paper will thus discuss issues related to current and future water governance in the region, whether water-related policies are sufficiently robust today to cope with what may be rapid changes in water availability and water use in coming decades, and to resolve possible rivalries between economic sectors that may be increasingly confronted with problems of water availability at critical times of the year. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.","Impacts of climatic change on water and natural hazards in the Alps: Can current water governance cope with future challenges? Examples from the European ""ACQWA"" project",1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0
+653732,"This work evaluates the results of direct effect of HUMAC Agro on yield and sugar content of sugar beet as well as on selected soil properties in a field trial established in soil-climatic conditions of south Poland in 2013 (vegetation season: average air temperature 16.0 degrees C, total precipitations 261 mm). Soil conditioner HUMAC Agro was applied to middle heavy pseudopodzolic soil in early spring of 2013 in two dosages: 500 kg ha(-1) in case of Variant 1 (V1) and 250 kg ha(-1) in case of Variant 2 (V2); it was not applied in case of Variant 3 (V3). Nitrogen fertilization according to Variants: 60.3 kg ha(-1) N for V1, 94.8 kg ha(-1) N for both V2 and V3. Doses of phosphorus, potassium and sulphur were the same for all Variants. V1 achieved the highest sugar beet yield 95.97 t ha(-1) with sugar content 18.12% which meant the highest sugar yield 17.39 t ha(-1) (+29.6% more than control treatment). V2 achieved sugar beet yield 86.39 t ha(-1) with the lowest sugar content 17.65% and sugar yield 15.25 t ha(-1) (+13.6% more than control treatment). The control treatment achieved the lowest sugar beet yield 72.81 t ha(-1) with the highest sugar content 18.43% and the lowest sugar yield 13.42 t ha(-1). Soil conditioner HUMAC Agro also influenced soil properties. After the application of 500 kg ha(-1) HUMAC Agro the humus content in soil and its pH increased (due to buffering effect) as well as contents of the available forms of all observed nutrients (P, K, Mg, B, Mn, Cu, Zn and Fe) in spite of higher sugar beet yield and thus higher nutrient uptake compared to the control treatment. The mentioned soil properties increase applied also when compared to the state in the beginning. The higher humus content may be caused by the increased yields (besides the conditioner humic acids input), due to higher formation of root mass, which remains in the soil after harvesting the crop. Conversely, higher content of available forms of solved nutrients in the soil usually correlates with their lower consumption and lower harvest. Higher nutrient uptake by higher yields and higher soil nutrients content at the same time is a desirable effect of soil conditioners that prevent leaching of mobile nutrients and increase the accessibility of nutrients from their unavailable forms in the soil. The mentioned desirable effect is not obvious in any soil and climatic conditions, so it is therefore necessary to quantify the effect of soil conditioners on the soil properties by laboratory analyses especially to prevent a decline in nutrients due to increased yields. The values of monitored soil parameters for the control variant compared to their initial state showed decrease with the exception of Mn and Fe contents.",EFFECT OF SOIL CONDITIONER BASED ON HUMIC ACIDS HUMAC AGRO ON SOIL AND YIELD AND SUGAR CONTENT OF SUGAR BEET IN CONTEXT OF SELECTED INDICATORS OF AGRICULTURE SYSTEM SUSTAINABILITY,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+3402254,"The paradigm for all toxicological bioassays in the risk assessment of pesticide registration reflects the principle that experimental conditions should be controlled to avoid any other factors that may affect the endpoint measures. As honeybee colonies can be frequently exposed to bio-aggressors in real conditions, often concomitantly with pesticides, co-exposure to pesticidei/bio-aggressors is becoming a concern for regulatory authorities. We investigated the effects of the neonicotinoid insecticide thiamethoxam on the homing performances of foragers emerging from colonies differentiated by health status (infestation with Varroa destructor mites, microsporidian parasite Nosema spp. and Deformed Wing Virus). We designed a homing test that has been recently identified to fill a regulatory gap in the field evaluations of sublethal doses of pesticides before their registration. We also assessed the effect of temperature as an environmental factor. Our results showed that the Varroa mite exacerbates homing failure (HF) caused by the insecticide, whereas high temperatures reduce insecticide-induced HF. Through an analytical Effective Dose (ED) approach, predictive modeling results showed that, for instance, ED level of an uninfested colony, can be divided by 3.3 when the colony is infested by 5 Varroa mites per 100 bees and at a temperature of 24 degrees C. Our results suggest that the health status of honeybee colonies and climatic context should be targeted for a thorough risk assessment. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",Hazard of a neonicotinoid insecticide on the homing flight of the honeybee depends on climatic conditions and Varroa infestation,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+58259,"Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere(1,2), raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions(1,3). Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs 1,3-5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate-change impacts(3,6,7). We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2 degrees C global warming. The occurrence of extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2 degrees C above the pre-industrial baseline.",Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.0,0.0
+65059,"Cotton production is the number one crop enterprise in Georgia in terms of revenue generation. However, due to continuous deterioration of soil quality with conventional tillage and chemical fertilizer application, the economic viability and sustainability of cotton production in Georgia are questionable. Residue management systems (RMSs) comprising winter cover crops were analyzed as an alternative to the existing system, which consists of conventional tillage and chemical fertilizer using yield benefit, net revenue, carbon sequestration, and yield efficiency criteria. Four different RMSs were examined for profitability and input efficiency. Four RMSs encompassing tillage versus no-till and chemical versus organic sources of plant nutrients were compared for their yield and net return differences. No-till and poultry litter with a cover crop was the only system with a positive return and crop yield based on the results from experimental data. Limited results from the experimental field were reinforced using a simulation study. When cotton yield is simulated with an alternative level of organic matter and nitrogen application, production function shows efficiency in input application at the higher level of organic matter. Regression results based on an erosion productivity impact calculator/environmental policy integrated climate (EPIC) simulation indicated that, in the long term, a no-till and poultry litter system may have promise in the region. The results from simulation confirm the results from the experimental study. This study reflected a need to change the cotton management system from the 200-year-old practice of employing intensively cultivated conventional tillage and chemical fertilizers to a new renewable resource-based system where residue management and organic sources of nutrients would be the key components.",Residue management systems and their implications for production efficiency,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+538065,"Snowmelt and icemelt are believed to be important regulators of seasonal discharge of Himalayan rivers. To analyze the long term contribution of snowmelt and glacier/icemelt to river hydrology we apply a water budget model to simulate hydrology of the Liddar watershed in the western Himalaya, India for the 20th century (1901-2010) and future IPCC A1B climate change scenario. Long term (1901-2010) temperature and precipitation data in this region show a warming trend (0.08 degrees C yr(-1)) and an increase in precipitation (0.28 mm yr(-1)), with a significant variability in seasonal trends. In particular, winter months have undergone the most warming, along with a decrease in precipitation rates; precipitation has increased throughout the spring. These trends have accelerated the melting and rapid disappearance of snow, causing a seasonal redistribution in the availability of water. Our model results show that about 60% of the annual runoff of the Liddar watershed is contributed from the snowmelt, while only 2% is contributed from glacier ice. The climate trend observed from the 1901 to 2010 time period and its impact on the availability of water will become significantly worse under the IPCC climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that there is a significant shift in the timing and quantity of water runoff in this region of the Himalayas due to snow distribution and melt. With greatly increased spring runoff and its reductions in summer potentially leading to reduced water availability for irrigation agriculture in summer. Citation: Jeelani, G., J. J. Feddema, C. J. van der Veen, and L. Stearns (2012), Role of snow and glacier melt in controlling river hydrology in Liddar watershed (western Himalaya) under current and future climate, Water Resour. Res., 48, W12508, doi: 10.1029/2011WR011590.",Role of snow and glacier melt in controlling river hydrology in Liddar watershed (western Himalaya) under current and future climate,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,1.0,0.0
+500447,"Massive population displacements are now regularly presented as one of the most dramatic possible consequences of climate change. Current forecasts and projections show that regions that would be affected by such population movements are low-lying islands, coastal and deltaic regions, as well as sub-Saharan Africa. Such estimates, however, are usually based on a 2 degrees C temperature rise. In the event of a 4 degrees C+ warming, not only is it likely that climate-induced population movements will be more considerable, but also their patterns could be significantly different, as people might react differently to temperature changes that would represent a threat to their very survival. This paper puts forward the hypothesis that a greater temperature change would affect not only the magnitude of the associated population movements, but also-and above all-the characteristics of these movements, and therefore the policy responses that can address them. The paper outlines the policy evolutions that climate-induced displacements in a 4 degrees C+ world would require.",Climate-induced population displacements in a 4 degrees C+ world,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+602732,"Climate change has the potential to alter the genetic diversity of plant populations with consequences for community dynamics and ecosystem processes. Recent research focused on changes in climatic means has found evidence of decreased precipitation amounts reducing genetic diversity. However, increased variability in climatic regimes is also predicted with climate change, but the effects of this aspect of climate change on genetic diversity have yet to be investigated. After 10 years of experimentally increased intra-annual variability in growing season precipitation regimes, we report that the number of genotypes of the dominant C-4 grass, Andropogon gerardii Vitman, has been significantly reduced in native tallgrass prairie compared with unmanipulated prairie. However, individuals showed a different pattern of genomic similarity with increased precipitation variability resulting in greater genome dissimilarity among individuals when compared to unmanipulated prairie. Further, we found that genomic dissimilarity was positively correlated with aboveground productivity in this system. The increased genomic dissimilarity among individuals in the altered treatment alongside evidence for a positive correlation of genomic dissimilarity with phenotypic variation suggests ecological sorting of genotypes may be occurring via niche differentiation. Overall, we found effects of more variable precipitation regimes on population-level genetic diversity were complex, emphasizing the need to look beyond genotype numbers for understanding the impacts of climate change on genetic diversity. Recognition that future climate change may alter aspects of genetic diversity in different ways suggests possible mechanisms by which plant populations may be able to retain a diversity of traits in the face of declining biodiversity.",Genetic diversity of a dominant C-4 grass is altered with increased precipitation variability,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0
+108710,"Arctic permafrost coasts are sensitive to changing climate. The lengthening open water season and the increasing open water area are likely to induce greater erosion and threaten community and industry infrastructure as well as dramatically change nutrient pathways in the near-shore zone. The shallow, mediterranean Arctic Ocean is likely to be strongly affected by changes in currently poorly observed arctic coastal dynamics. We present a geomorphological classification scheme for the arctic coast, with 101,447 km of coastline in 1,315 segments. The average rate of erosion for the arctic coast is 0.5 m year(-1) with high local and regional variability. Highest rates are observed in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Beaufort Seas. Strong spatial variability in associated database bluff height, ground carbon and ice content, and coastline movement highlights the need to estimate the relative importance of shifting coastal fluxes to the Arctic Ocean at multiple spatial scales.",The Arctic Coastal Dynamics Database: A New Classification Scheme and Statistics on Arctic Permafrost Coastlines,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+583667,"How individuals respond to environmental change determines the strength and direction of biological processes like recruitment and growth that underpin population productivity. Ascertaining the relative importance of environmental factors can, however, be difficult given the numerous mechanisms through which they affect individuals. This is especially true in dynamic and complex estuarine environments. Here, we develop long-term otolith-based indices of recruitment and growth for estuary perch Percalates colonorum (Bemm River, Australia), to explore the importance of intrinsic (individual, demographic) and extrinsic (hydrologic, climatic, density-dependent) factors in driving estuarine fish productivity. Analyses involved a novel zero-inflated specification of catch curve regression and mixed effects modelling. The 39years of recruitment and 46years of growth data, spanning a period of environmental change including severe drought, displayed considerable inter-annual variation. Recruitment success was strongly related to high freshwater inflows during the spawning season, suggesting that these conditions act as spawning cues for adults and potentially provide favourable conditions for larvae. Individuals displayed age-dependent growth, with highest rates observed at younger ages in years characterized by warm temperatures, and to a lesser degree, greater magnitude base inflow conditions. We detected systematic among-year-class growth differences, but these were not attributable to year class strength, suggesting that environmental conditions experienced by individuals as juveniles can have long-lasting effects of greater importance to population productivity than density-dependent growth responses. The primacy of temperature in driving growth variation highlights that under-appreciated climatic variation can affect estuarine fish productivity through direct physiological and indirect food web mechanisms. We predict that climatic warming will promote individual growth in southerly populations of P. colonorum but concurrently limit recruitment due to forecast reductions in spawning season river discharge. Disparate trait responses are likely in other fishes as they respond to multiple and changing environmental drivers, making predictions of future population productivity challenging.",Environmental change drives long-term recruitment and growth variation in an estuarine fish,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0