FIRST CONTRIBUTION DETERMINED AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL OF BENIN UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT

RESUME EXECUTIF

Pursuant to paragraph 13 of decision 1 / CP.20 on the Lima call of December 2014, which reiterated the invitation to Parties to report their Nationally Determined Planned Contributions (INDCs) as a prelude to COP21, Benin submitted the INDC to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in September 2015. This document could take the place of its first Nationally Determined Contribution (CDN) if it had not exercised, upon the deposit of its instrument of ratification of the Paris Agreement, on October 31, 2016, the option of to develop its NDC by updating its INDC, as provided for in paragraph 22 of Decision 1 / CP.21 adopting the Paris Agreement.

1. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES

Located in West Africa in the Gulf of Guinea, between latitudes 6 ° 30 'and 12 ° 30'N and longitudes 1 ° and 3 ° 40'E, the Republic of Bénincouvre an area of 114 763 km ². With an average annual population growth rate of 3.5%, its population is estimated at around 10,653,654 inhabitants for the year 2016. Two types of climate govern the country: the sub-equatorial climate in the southern region and the continental tropical climate in the northern region. From an economic point of view, Benin is a Least Developed Country (LDC) whose economy is based mainly on agriculture. Despite economic efforts, the average real growth rate (4.2% from 2006 to 2015) is lower than the growth rate of 7%, which is necessary to sustainably fight against poverty.

The political will of the Government of Benin to combat the climate change issue finds its place in its 2016-2021 Action Program (PAG) which is based on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the decisions of the Kyoto Accord. Paris. Climate change is therefore a concern of the Government of Benin, which develops actions on the basis of clearly defined objectives and orientations through state structures, local authorities, the private sector and civil society organizations.

2. ATTENUATION

2.1. Current greenhouse gas emissions and projected status quo status quo

Benin's total GHG emissions are about 14.1 mega tonnes CO₂ equivalent (Mt ECO₂ ), or about 1.5 tons E CO₂ per capita in 2012, land use sector, allocation changes Land and Forestry (LULUCF) excluded. These emissions come from the energy sector (47.4%), agriculture (45.9%), waste (5.0%) and industrial processes (1.6%). Taking into account the LULUCF sector, the balance of emissions (14.9 Mt E-CO₂ ) and removals (50.3 Mt CO₂ ) of GHGs shows that Benin remains globally a GHG sink with a net absorption capacity. 35.4 Mt CO₂in 2012. However, its capacity for carbon sequestration, or even CO₂ absorption , at the level of its vegetation cover is decreasing (20.6% between 1995 and 2005 compared to 32.0% in 2012).

In terms of projection, in the context of the standstill scenario (without intervention), the overall emissions trend (excluding LULUCF) shows a growth rate of 172.8% over the period 2012-2030, Mt E-CO₂ at 38.5 Mt E-CO _2. Total cumulative GHG emissions for this scenario over the 2021-2030 period are close to 306.1 Mt E-CO₂ . They come from 66.3% of the energy sector and 27.4% from that of agriculture.

Benin plans to reduce overall cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (excluding the forestry sector) compared to the status quo scenario of about 49.49 Mt E-CO₂ , a reduction of 16.17% over the period from 2021 to 2030. The share of national efforts is of the order of 3.63% and that of the conditional contribution is 12.55%. The implementation of these measures would contribute to reducing cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector compared to the status quo scenario of 23.35 Mt E CO₂over the period from 2021 to 2030, ie 11.51% of which 9.53% conditional contribution and 1.98% unconditional contribution. Reduction efforts in the agriculture sector would avoid cumulative GHG emissions of about 26.1 Mt CO₂ compared to the business-as-usual scenario, a 31.1% reduction over the period from 2021 to 2030, including 25.3% conditional contribution and 5.8% unconditional contribution.

In the LULUCF sector, the implementation of the measures could contribute to increasing Benin's cumulative sequestration capacity to 32 Mt E-CO₂ compared to the scenario of maintaining the status quo in this sector in the 2021 period. -2030 of which 76.6% conditional contribution and 23.4% unconditional contribution, through the limitation of deforestation (23.9 Mt E-CO₂ ) and the creation of forest plantations (8.1 Mt E CO₂ ).

2.2. Objectives and actions for climate change mitigation

Based on existing strategies, plans and programs, the key sectoral objectives and climate change mitigation measures reported in Tables 3-5.

2.3. Strategies, Programs, Implementation Projects

The implementation of sectoral mitigation activities (agriculture, energy and forestry) under the NLC will build on existing strategies, programs and projects and future programs and projects.

3. ADAPTATION

Given its membership of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) groups, its environmental context and its development objectives, adaptation remains for the Republic of Benin priority in response to climate change even though it adheres unconditionally to the global effort, geared towards the mitigation strategy.

3.1. Vulnerability of Benin to climate change

In terms of current vulnerability, the major climatic hazards that impact livelihoods and livelihoods in the agriculture, water resources, coastal and forestry sectors are: drought, floods, late rains and violent, violent winds, excessive heat and rising sea levels. The manifestations of these climatic risks have generated numerous impacts over the past three decades , in this case the fall in agricultural yields, the disruption agricultural calendars, falling water levels in dams for drinking water supply, prolonging the low-water period, submerging banks, etc.

With regard to future vulnerability, the climatic risks to which the natural and human systems may be exposed fall within a scenario of persistence or increase in the risks currently observed and are a function of the sector considered. The potential impacts, according to the climate projections at time horizons 2025, 2050 and 2100, range from coastal flooding and saline water intrusion in the rivers and water tables to a decline in maize yields in some agro-ecological zones (AEZs in particular). ) by shifting flood periods in the Benin portion of the Niger basin.

3.2. Objectives of adaptation to climate change

On the basis of existing strategies, plans and programs, the key sectoral targets for climate change adaptation are defined for the time horizons 2020, 2025 , 2030 and shown in Table 7.

3.3. Strategies, Programs, Implementation Projects

The implementation of sectoral adaptation activities (agriculture, water resources, coastline and forestry) under the NLC will build on existing strategies, programs and projects and future programs and projects.

4. INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF CDN

Benin's NDC will be implemented under the auspices of the Ministry of the Environment, which acts as the National Focal Point of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change with the effective participation of all stakeholders, including Technical and Financial Partners, state and non-state actors with a focus on gender and social inclusion (sector ministries, local governments, private sector, civil society, etc.). Stakeholder involvement will be ensured through certain bodies including (i) the Steering Committee of the CDN which is the supreme body for decision-making and guidance, (ii) the National Coordination of the CDN which is the federating entity of all the actions and (iii) the sectoral implementation teams coming under the ministries covered by the measures retained in the CDN. The implementation of the projects and programs identified at the level of the various sectors covered by the CDN is the responsibility of the sectoral ministries concerned. The necessary guidance and facilities will be provided by the Ministry in charge of the environment to support sector ministries as needed in the preparation of funding search files at the level of the mechanisms put in place to assist LDCs.

5. MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION

The activities planned as part of the implementation of the Benin CDN require financial, technological and capacity-building resources.

With regard to technological resources, the focus will be on endogenous technologies and South-South and North-South transfer including the necessary know-how. The main technology transfer needs identified relate to the agriculture / forestry and energy sectors (Table 10).

Capacity building will consist of developing technical skills and improving institutional capacity.

The Republic of Benin, in order to achieve its greenhouse gas mitigation (GHG) ambitions, will need a global financial envelope of the order of US $ 6042.33 million, including US $ 2135.24 million as a contribution from the Government. Benin and 3907.09 million to be mobilized from technical and financial partners (TFPs) over the period from 2021 to 2030. The cost of implementing adaptation programs and projects is estimated at approximately $ 5,594.69 million. US dollar whose national contribution (unconditional share) is in the order of 1441.15 million US dollar while the conditional share (international support) is 4153.54 million US dollar.

In total, the financial resources to be mobilized for the implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures under this first CDN in Benin amount to approximately US $ 1,367.02 million, which should come from public funds, private sector and international support.

6. CONSTRAINTS RELATED TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS

Successful implementation of the NDC could be constrained by a number of constraints, including: limited technical expertise, inadequate data and information quality, effective and timely mobilization of national resources, and external, the capacity of the public structures concerned to effectively manage large-scale programs, the effectiveness of the application of regulatory texts, the actual transfer of technologies and the success of research and development at national level.

I. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES

The Republic of Benin is located in West Africa in the Gulf of Guinea, between latitudes 6 ° 30 'and 12 ° 30'N and longitudes 1 ° and 3 ° 40'E. It covers an area of 114,763 km ² . With an average annual population growth rate of 3.5%, its population is estimated at around 10,882,953 inhabitants in 2016 (INSAE, 2015).

Two types of climate govern the country: the sub-equatorial climate in the South and the continental tropical climate in the North. Year-round mean precipitation varies between 700 mm in the North and 1500 mm in the South, while air temperatures average around 27.2 ° C, with absolute maxima exceeding 45 ° C in the North (ASECNA, 2016).

Benin is one of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) whose economy is based mainly on agriculture, trade and transport with neighboring countries. Despite economic efforts, the average real growth rate (4.2% from 2006 to 2015) is lower than the growth rate of 7%, which is the minimum needed to fight poverty in the long term (MAP 2016-2021). This calls for many challenges to be addressed in various poverty reduction strategies (Ndoye et al., 2016).

Exogenous factors, including climate change, that may hinder the successful implementation of measures taken or envisaged to sustainably address poverty at the national level. Indeed, like other LDCs, Benin remains a country particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change, the consequences of which are felt at the national and local levels. For about two decades, the rainfall patterns characterizing the climates of Benin sometimes fluctuate very much in the middle or in the seasons. The main risks facing the country are drought, floods and late and severe rains. To these major risks is added the occurrence of climatic risks with a low geographical influence,

Awareness of the issues related to the issue of climate change has favored the development and adoption of several policies, strategies and response programs by Benin, including the National Agenda 21, the National Strategy for Sustainable Development, the Development Strategy for low carbon and climate resilient, the National Strategy for Strengthening Human Resources, Learning and Skills Development for Green, Low Emissions and Climate Resilient Development, and the National Action Program for Adaptation to Climate Change (NAPA). These documents generally aim to (i) integrate climate considerations into Benin's strategic sectoral operational plans, to be less carbon-intensive and more resilient to climate change for its sustainable development; and (ii) to provide Benin with a sustainable human resource base to address climate change. Other initiatives are currently underway, including the development of the national adaptation plan and the national policy for combating climate change.

The political will of the Government of Benin to meet the challenges of climate change is reflected in its 2016-2021 Action Program (PAG). This program is based in particular on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the decisions of the Paris Agreement. It provides for actions and reforms to "relaunch in a sustainable manner the economic and social development of Benin" including the development and implementation of adaptation measures, mitigation and disaster management through the continued implementation of implementation ofPANA, support for the development of renewable energies, initiatives for the protection of forests, reforestation and greening at the municipal level, the fight against coastal erosion, a strategy for climate-smart agriculture,

The urgency of the issue of climate change requires a comprehensive approach to response particularly by the Ministry of the Framework for Life and Sustainable Development (MCVDD). The main structures involved in the fight against climate change in this Ministry are the General Directorate Environment and Climate (DGEC), the National Fund for Environment and Climate (FNEC) and the Benin Agency for Environment and Climate (ABEC). The mission of the DGEC is to develop and ensure the implementation and monitoring and evaluation of the State's policies and strategies for managing the effects of climate change and promoting the green economy. Climate change issues are managed by the MCVDD in partnership with other sectoral ministries, local authorities, the private sector and civil society organizations with the support of the Technical and Financial Partners. These structures are involved individually or collectively through committees including the National Committee on Climate Change (CNCC), the Economic Modeling of Climate Impacts and Climate Change Integration in the General Budget of the State (CMEICB) , the national GHG inventory system, etc. The implementation of the system of measurement, notification and verification at the national level is under way through the Drafting of the First Biennial Report Update. These structures are involved individually or collectively through committees including the National Committee on Climate Change (CNCC), the Economic Modeling of Climate Impacts and Climate Change Integration in the General Budget of the State (CMEICB) , the national GHG inventory system, etc. The implementation of the system of measurement, notification and verification at the national level is under way through the Drafting of the First Biennial Report Update. These structures are involved individually or collectively through committees including the National Committee on Climate Change (CNCC), the Economic Modeling of Climate Impacts and Climate Change Integration in the General Budget of the State (CMEICB) , the national GHG inventory system, etc. The implementation of the system of measurement, notification and verification at the national level is underway through the Drafting of the First Biennial Report Refreshed.

II.ATTENUATION

2.1. Current greenhouse gas emissions and projections in case of maintaining the status quo

The data on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are based on the results available in June 2017 of the GHG inventory studies carried out as part of the project for the development of the Third National Communication (TCN).

• Greenhouse gas emissions at the national level

Benin's total GHG emissions are about 14.1 mega tonnes CO₂ -equivalent (Mt E-CO₂ ), or about 1.5 tons E-CO₂ per capita in 2012, land use sector, changes of Land Use and Forestry (LULUCF) excluded. These emissions come from the energy sector (47.4%), agriculture (45.9%), waste (5.0%) and industrial processes (1.6%).

Taking into account the LULUCF sector, the balance of emissions (14.9 Mt E-CO₂ ) and removals (50.3 Mt CO₂ ) of GHG shows that Benin is globally a GHG sink with an absorption capacity. net of 35.4 Mt CO₂ in 2012, that is, its GHG emissions are largely offset by the uptake of CO₂ in its forest cover. Although Benin remains a sink, its carbon sequestration capacity is decreasing, from (52.0) Mt E-CO₂ in 1995 to (41.3) Mt E-CO₂ in 2005, a decrease of 20 , 6%, and at (35.4) Mt E-CO₂ in 2012, a decrease of 32.0%.

• Projection of greenhouse gas emissions if the status quo is maintained

If the status quo is maintained, the overall emissions trend (excluding LULUCF) shows a growth rate of 172.8% over the 2012-2030 period, ranging from 14.1 Mt E-CO₂ to 38.5 Mt. E-CO₂ (Figure 1). Total cumulative GHG emissions without any intervention over the 2021-2030 period are approximately 306.1 Mt E-CO₂ (excluding LULUCF). They come from 66.3% of the energy sector and 27.4% from that of agriculture.

Figure 1: Overall Emissions and Emissions Trend in the Agriculture and Energy Sector (1995-2030) - Business as Usual Scenario.

• Assumptions and methodological approaches used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions under a status quo (Table 1).

Table 1: Assumptions and Methodological Approaches Used to Predict GHG Emissions in the Maintenance of the Status Quo

2.2. Measures for nationally determined contributions to mitigation

The Republic of Benin is one of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and countries with low elevation coastal zones. Based on this consideration, Benin in its submission, presents a contribution to the mitigation of GHG based on measures contained in strategies, programs and projects for the period 2017-2030. This period includes the preparatory phase for the implementation of the NDC (2017 to 2020) and the NSC implementation period (2021 to 2030, GHG emission reduction accounting period). Numerous opportunities for GHG mitigation have been identified in agriculture, energy and LULUCF sectors for this purpose.

• Measures for nationally determined contributions to mitigation

The overall national contribution to mitigation is presented in Table 2. The planned sectoral measures and their effects are presented in Tables 3, 4 and 5 and illustrated in Figures 2, 3 and 4.

Table 2: Overall contribution determined at national level

Figure 2: Estimated Global GHG Emissions under the Status Quo Scenario and Intervention

Table 3: Planned measures and avoided emissions in the agriculture sector

Figure 3: Estimated GHG emissions under the status quo scenario and in the case of agriculture intervention.

Table 4: Proposed measures and avoided emissions in the energy sector

Figure 4: GHG Emissions Estimate under the Business as Usual Scenario and in the Energy Sector

Table 5: Proposed measures and avoided emissions in the LULUCF sector

• Assumptions and methodological approaches for the development of mitigation scenarios

The assumptions and methodological approaches for the development of mitigation scenarios are presented in Table 6.

Table 6: Assumptions and Methodological Approaches for the Development of Mitigation Scenarios

III. AMBITION AND EQUITY

The objective of reducing cumulative emissions over the period 2021-2030 of 16.17% based on the measurements is fair in relation to Benin's low contribution to global emissions, its low level of development and its socio-economic fragility . The Republic of Benin is one of the least developed countries in the world whose GHG emissions are estimated at about 1.5 t CO₂per capita and largely offset by carbon sequestration in its forest cover. Its economic performance remains weak and unstable with a critical financial situation, marked by a relatively high level of debt and an increase in the budget deficit. The average real growth rate (4.2% from 2006 to 2015) is lower than the growth rate of 7%, which is the minimum necessary to sustainably combat poverty. The country depends on the outside for its supply of commercial energies (petroleum products and electricity).

The commitment of Benin is ambitious given that its reduction targets relate to the key sectors for economic development especially in the energy and agriculture and whose emissions cover 93% of the country's total emissions. Benin's aspiration to economic development and the growth of its population would induce a trend growth in its energy needs. As a result, GHG emissions from the agriculture and energy sectors are expected to increase steadily. The challenge will therefore be to promote low-carbon development.

IV. ADAPTATION

4.1. Vulnerability of Benin to climate change

In terms of current vulnerability, the major climate risks that impact livelihoods and livelihoods in the agriculture, water resources, coastal and forestry sectors are drought, floods, late rains and violent winds, excessive heat, and rising sea level.

The above-mentioned manifestations of climate risks have generated numerous impacts over the last three decades, in this case the fall in agricultural yields, the disruption of agricultural calendars, the drop in water levels in dams with water supply. drinking water, prolonging the low water period, submerging the banks, etc.

With regard to future vulnerability, the climatic risks to which the natural and human systems may be exposed fall within a scenario of persistence or increase in the risks currently observed and are a function of the sector considered. The potential impacts, according to the climate projections at time horizons 2025, 2050 and 2100, range from coastal flooding and saline water intrusion in the rivers and water tables to a decline in maize yields in some agro-ecological zones (AEZs in particular). ) by shifting flood periods in the Benin portion of the Niger basin.

4.2. Objectives of adaptation to climate change

On the basis of existing strategies, plans and programs, the key sectoral targets for climate change adaptation are defined for the time horizons 2020, 2025 , 2030 and shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Sector Objectives for Adaptation to Climate Change

V. STRATEGIES, PROGRAMS, PROJECTS AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR IMPLEMENTATION

5.1. Implementation of sectoral activities

The implementation of the sectoral activities foreseen in the NSC will build on existing and future strategies, programs, projects (Tables 8, 9, 10 and 11) .Therefore, the relevant sectoral structures are committed to taking them into account in design of future programs and projects.

It should be noted that some of the mitigation projects listed in Table 8 have co-benefits with adaptation and vice versa.

Table 8: Strategies, Programs and Projects for Preparing and Implementing CDN for Mitigation in the Agriculture Sector

Table 9: Strategies, Programs and Projects for the Preparation and Implementation of CDN for Mitigation in the Energy Sector

Table 10: Strategies, Programs and Projects for the Preparation and Implementation of the CDN for Mitigation in the Forestry Sector

Table 11: Sectoral Strategies for Implementing Adaptation Objectives

5.2. Institutional Framework for the Implementation of the CDN

The diagram of the institutional organization selected for the implementation of the NDC is summarized in Figure 5.

Benin's contribution will be implemented under the auspices of the Ministry of the Environment, which acts as the National Focal Point of the UNFCCC with the effective participation of state and non-state actors and TFPs. The implementation of the projects and programs identified at the level of the various sectors covered by the CDN is the responsibility of the sectoral ministries concerned. The necessary guidance and facilities will be provided by the Ministry in charge of the environment to support sector ministries as needed in the preparation of funding search files at the level of mechanisms in place to assist Least Developed Countries.

Stakeholder involvement will be ensured through certain bodies including:

• A steering committee that is the supreme decision-making and guidance body. It includes the Secretaries General of the relevant sector ministries, technical directors from various ministries. The Minister in charge of the environment chairs the committee and the report.
• A National Coordination which is the federating entity of all the actions. It is the interface between the implementation instances. To carry out its activities, it relies on a certain number of advisory bodies including the GTEC (made of PTFs), the National Committee on Climate Change (CNCC), the platform for disaster management and forecasting, the Commission of Economic Modeling of Climate Impacts and Integration of Climate Change in the General State Budget (CMEICB), the National Association of Municipalities of Benin (ANCB). The National Coordination will also be assisted by the Expert Group on Mitigation and Vulnerability / Adaptation and Research Institutions.
• Sector implementation teams. They come under the ministries covered by the measures adopted for the commitments contained in the NSC. They represent the key links in the operational. Sectoral coordination is ensured by the Directors of Programming and Foresight assisted by the Directors of Administration and Finance. They include technical directors and program and project managers.

Figure 5: Organizational Chart of the Institutional Framework for Implementing the CDN

VI. MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION

The implementation plan for the activities planned under the Benin NDC is presented in Annex 3. The implementation of these activities requires financial, technological and capacity-building resources.

6.1. Technology Transfer Needs

With regard to technological resources, the focus will be on endogenous technologies and South-South and North-South transfer including the necessary know-how. The main technology transfer needs identified relate to the agriculture / forestry and energy sectors (Table 12).

Table 12: Technology Transfer Needs

6.2. Capacity building

Capacity building will consist of skills development and institutional capacity building (Table 13).

Table 13: Capacity Building Needs.

6.3. Funding

National resources (public funds and private investments) will be supplemented by external financial support (bilateral or multilateral).

The total estimated cost for the execution of the plans, programs and projects registered under the Benin CDN amounts globally to US $ 1,367.02 million, of which US $ 3,576.39 million unconditional option and US $ 8060.63 million. US $ conditional option (Annexes 1 and 2). Mitigating and adjusting shares are 6042.33 and 5594.69 million US dollars, respectively. This estimate is based on the country's current experiences in implementing climate change mitigation and adaptation projects.

In order to measure the progress made in the implementation of these activities, monitoring and evaluation systems will be set up, including the Measurement, Notification and Verification (MRV) system.

6.4 Conditions for successful implementation of the CDN

The success of the implementation of the CDN will depend on the following conditions:

• The effective and timely mobilization of national resources and the assistance expected from the international community. Difficulties in mobilizing sufficient resources could hinder the implementation of projects.
• The capacity of the public structures concerned to effectively manage large-scale programs. To prevent any difficulties that may arise from the lack of capacity of these structures, it will be necessary to make a good diagnosis at the sectoral level of the staffing needs for the timely implementation of the projects; and this in the context of the development of the institutional capacity building program foreseen in the NSC.
• The effectiveness of the implementation of regulatory texts and the control of the national market of imported electrical and household appliances and the success of energy efficiency promotion operations.
• The capacity of the agricultural sector to effectively promote improved farming techniques on the planned areas.
• The effectiveness of technology transfer as well as the success of research and development at the national level.

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ANNEXES

Annex 1: Summary of Mitigation Measures for Planned Planned Contributions at the National Level

Annex 2: Summary of Adaptation Measures for Benin's Nationally Determined Contributions

Appendix 3: CDN Implementation Plan