DRAFT

Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) of the Republic of Angola

November 2015

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The contributions of Angola to this INDC are in the framework of the National Strategy for the Implementation of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, the Strategy to Fight Poverty (SFP), the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and Long Term Strategy for Development of Angola (2025).

Angola is committed to take part in the aspiration set at International level to fight against the phenomenon of climate change, thus contributing to global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For this, Angola's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) encompasses for Mitigation purposes both unconditional and conditional measures for the reduction of GHG. The country is committed to stabilize its emissions, and contribute to climate change mitigation by 2030, targeting the following sectors:

• Power generation from renewable sources; and
• Reforestation.

Angola plans to reduce GHG emissions up to 35% unconditionally by 2030 as compared to the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario (base year 2005). In addition, it is expected that through a conditional mitigation scenariothe country could reduce an additional 15% below BAU emission levels by 2030. In achieving its unconditional and conditional targets Angola expects to reduce its emissions trajectory by nearly 50% below the BAU scenario by 2030 at overall cost of over 14.7billion USD.

Given to its extreme vulnerability to Climate Change impacts in some key economic sectors, Angola's INDC also includes priority Adaptation actions that will enable the strengthening of the resilience of the country towards the attainment of the Long Term Strategy for Development of Angola (2025).

Sectoral Intervention for Adaptation

The Angolan economy has been hit hard by the impact of climate change expressed as prolonged drought, damaging flash floods, forest fires, reduced crop production, reduced water resources, impacted fishing resources, etc. Many of the economy sectors of Angola have been impacted by climate variability in the last thirty years. However, there are economy sectors which are extremely vulnerable to impacts resulting from the extreme events and which will pose not only serious livelihood and direct health risks but can also affect the economic potential and national food security. Therefore within the context of this INDC, Angola prioritises the implementation of Adaptation measures in the following main sectors:

• Agriculture
• Coastal Zone
• Land-Use, Forests, Ecosystems and Biodiversity
• Water resources
• Health

Angola acknowledges that climate change adaptation requires unconditional as well as conditional actions in order to reduce the vulnerability of communities against the expected Climate Change impacts. The overall cost of implementing both the unconditional and conditional actions amounts to around 1billion USDacross sectors up to 2030.

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1. NATIONAL CONTEXT

The Republic of Angola with a size of 1.25m sq km (481,354 sq miles) is located in SW Africa and extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts such as drought and floods particularly in the southern regions. Projections of mean annual rainfall averaged over the country from different models indicate a wide range of changes in precipitation for Angola. Furthermore, IPCC scenarios (SRES A1B scenario as shown in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report) have projected an increase of mean annual temperature in the region by 1.2 to 3.2°C by the 2060s, and 1.7 to 5.1°C by the 2090s. Climate models predict that over the next 50 to 100 years, Angola will experience increased temperatures, more extreme weather events, an expansion of arid and semi-arid regions, seasonal shifts in rainfall, localized floods, increased wildfires, sea level rise, increased rainfall in the northern parts of the country, changes in river flows and changes in sea and lake temperatures. According to the Angolan NAPA (2011), the major expected climate change threats and impacts are: floods, soil erosion, drought episodes, rise in sea-level. The main sectors identified as affected by climate change are: agriculture and food security; forest and biodiversity; fisheries; water resources; human health; infrastructures; coastal zones; energy.

In response to decisions adopted at the 19th and 20th sessions of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as a demonstration of its commitment to take part in the aspiration set at International level to fight against the phenomenon of climate change, thus contributing to global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Angola has embarkedon the process of preparation of its intended determined contributions through a participatory approach. This document therefore presents Angola's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) which encompasses for Mitigation purposes both unconditional and conditional measures for the reduction of GHG. Given to its extreme vulnerability to Climate Change impacts in some key economic sectors, Angola's INDC also includespriority Adaptation actions that will enable the strengthening of the resilience of the country towards the attainment of the Long Term Strategy for Development of Angola (2025).

2. ANGOLA’S MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION

Objectives and expected trajectories for 2030

Greenhouse gases covered
The contribution of Angola is based on the estimation of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) for all economic sectors. F-gases emissions are not counted as they were considered negligible across the country.

Sectoral and geographical coverage
Based on the last GHG inventory, the selected sectors are defined according to the revised IPCC Guidelines 1996 and cover the entire territory.

Base year period and baseline data
The year 2005 is used as the reference year. Data are extracted from the latest national inventory of greenhouse gases and from the database of ENERDATA^[1] . The Global Warming Potential (GWP) values used are those determined by the IPCC for the preparation of national emissions inventories accordingDecision 4/CMP.7 of the UNFCCC by which from 2013 GWP of CH₄ is 25 and not 21, and PWG of N₂O is 298 and not 310.

For the year 2005, GHG emissions amounted to 66.8 million tons of CO₂e, of which over 95% stemmed from the fossil fuel consumption. The baseline structure (2005) of GHG emission of Angola by sector shown below indicates the dominance of Energy fuel combustion sector followed by the Agriculture and Change in Land-Use Change and Forestry sectors. In addition, the contribution of the fugitive emissions in the energy sector is clearly evident.

Baseline structure (2005) of GHG emission of Angola by sector and emissions in the energy sector

Reference scenario without mitigation policies

The baseline scenario was developed with the GACMO model (Greenhouse gas Abatement Cost Model^[2]) based on linear sectoral projections. It is based on the 2005 inventory of GHG emissions. This inventory was produced according to the revised guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published in the Initial National Communication.The sectoral linear projection estimates the level of GHG emissions without mitigation measures to triple by 2030 from the level of emissions in 2005. More than 90% of these emissions would come from the Energy sector making this the privileged area for the development of mitigation options for Angola

Contribution level

Therefore, the country is committed to stabilize its emissions by reducing GHG emissions up to 50% below BAU emission levels by 2030 through unconditional and conditional actions targeting the following sectors:

• Power generation from renewable sources; and
• Reforestation.

Unconditional Reduction

The level of reduction planned unconditionally is expected to be up to 35% by 2030 as compared to the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, taking 2005 as the reference year.

Conditional Reduction

In a conditional mitigation scenario Angola plans to reduce further its emissions. Therefore, the mitigation options identified in this scenario are expected to reduce an additional 15% below BAU emission levels by 2030. In total, in achieving its unconditional and conditional targets Angola expects to reduce its emissions trajectory by nearly 50% below the BAU scenario across sectors by 2030.

Baseline scenario and projections of Unconditional and Conditional mitigation scenarios for Angola

*From the baseline scenario.

Strategy and planning processes

For metrics and methodologies Global Warming Potential on a 100 year timescale is used in accordance with the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report. The contribution is to be developed into an emissions budget for the period 2021 to 2030.

National strategy and unconditional mitigation options
Unconditional Measures are the ongoing projects which funding has been fully identified and the Government of Angola is expected to implement during this INDC timeframe to accomplish a GHG reduction of at least 35% by 2030 as compared to the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. The table below indicates sector strategies to achieve the mitigation goals in 2030.

Presentation of conditional mitigation options

Key available projects that are expected to maximize the amount of avoided emissions, while concurrently minimizing the level of required upfront investment have been selected as potential mitigation options to be developed conditionally.These mitigation options identified in this scenario are expected to reduce an additional 15% below BAU emission levels by 2030. By undertaking these actions Angola will achieve the potential conditional target of 50 % emissions reductionbelow BAU emission levels by 2030.For this, the Government of Angola will pursue international support to utilize existing and emerging climate finance mechanisms and will encourage investments in green growth development initiatives. These projects are briefly described below and several of them are already on the agenda or subjected to feasibility assessments.

The total funds required for the implementation of these projects are roughly about 14.7billion USD to reach the mitigation target.

The power sector:As part of the projectMapping of the Winds and Solar of Angola (Implementing Angolan Ministry: Ministry of Energy and Water. National Directorate of Renewable Energy), which aimed at identifying the most suitable sites for the development of endogenous energy resources,a potential of 8,491MW of renewable sources were identified:

• 681 MW for wind energy projects,
• 438 MW for solar projects,
• 640 MW for biomass projects, and
• 6,732 MW hydroelectric projects

With an investment of 11,346 million USD.

Considering that Angola installed generating capacity was 2,388 MW in the first semester of 2015, of which 41.7% is hydroelectric and 58.3% diesel-generated, and that less than 20% of Angola’s population has access to electricity, with most depending on wood or charcoal, the objective is to promote access to renewable energy. The table presents the list of renewable energy projects to be considered under a conditional contribution by the Angola to the international climate regime.This projects are in the early stages of feasibility assessment. Developing this portfolio of renewable power projects will stabilize the CO₂ emissions by 2030 from the power sector, as these projects enable to respond to the needs of the increasing demand. Considering an investment of 1,138 US$/kW for a large-scale hydropower connected to main grid, 4,500US$/kW for a small-scale hydropower connected to main grid, 1300US$/kW forwind turbines connected to main grid (on- shore) (GACMO), 3,396US$/kW for biomass projectsand 1,500 US$/kW for PV solar.

Under evaluation

1. The use of biomass as energy source: In Angola about 80% of the population, depend on biomass for their everyday energy purposes, i.e. water heating, cooking and lighting the majority of which are living in rural areas and utilizing biomass as firewood. The demand for wood for charcoal is, therefore, also a significant driver of forest degradation and, subsequently, the release of GHG emissions. Biomass consumption (wood-energy and agricultural residues) remains the main source of domestic energy, and energy in small-scale commercial sectors. This intense cutting of trees to produce and supply charcoal to the urban and periurban areas is putting an extreme pressure on the local resources. Two-thirds of the population in Luanda are living in periurban areas, and approximately 270,000 tons of charcoal are utilized in the capital city annually. Reducing the demand for firewood is, therefore, an important strategy to reduce drivers of deforestation and an exhaustion of Angola's natural resources. Considering that about 1 million tons of charcoal may be used annually in the country, the potential emission reduction from the production of charcoal is estimated at more than 750,000 tCO₂/year and at approximate cost of around 300 million USD^[4].

2. The agriculture sector: In addition to efforts to mitigate GHG emissions from the agriculture sector, the country intends to promote the use of biofuels, by producing ethanol and sugar, using the experience from Brazil. The objective is to cultivate and harvest 34 thousand hectares of sugarcane in the province of Malange, to process a capacity of 2.25 million tons of raw material per season. The country intends to produce 23 million liters of ethanol and 170 GW of power through co-generation by 2019. The budget is between 540 million and 1 billion USD.

3. The Forest Carbon Options: Angola possesses significant opportunities for initiating large- scale afforestation/reforestation activities, which hold several economic, social and environmental advantages while alleviating the pressure on natural forests. Afforestation and Reforestation of degraded forest lands and mangrove habitats have a strong potential for mitigation purposes. Angola is currently undertaking legislative reforms in the forestry sector, while FAO is assisting the Government of Angola in carrying out a national forestry assessment with the aim of producing comprehensive information on the state of forests in the country. Several large scale afforestation initiatives are currently being planned which includes 50 000ha to be planted in the 10 years; 140 000ha of eucalyptus to be planted in Huila province; 60 000ha of eucalyptus to be planted in the Province of Kuando-Cubango and 25 000ha about to be planted in Malange province in the next five years. Considering that the current cost of planting 1000 ha = 6 250 000 USD the approximate cost of these afforestation initiatives will amount around 2 billion USD.

4. Presently, the potential income from REDD+ projects in the country is considered to be substantial. Calculating the potential emission reductions from REDD+ activities in Angola demonstrates that there is mitigation potential if deforestation is avoided completely. Assuming that the baseline is entirely based on historical emissions, avoided emissions are calculated by multiplying the annual deforestation in Angola, estimated to be 124,800 ha per year (based on numbers from the period 1990-2010), by 82 tC/ha, which is the approximate amount of tons of carbon stored per ha in the country's forests. Avoiding deforestation, alone, in Angola has the potential to contribute to more than 35 million tons in CO₂ emission reductions every year. The budget required is above 500 million USD.

The Republic of Angola recognizes the roll that Carbon Market can play for the mobilization of resources and promotion of the development and transfers of climate friendly technology.

3. ANGOLA’S ADAPTATION CONTRIBUTION

This Adaptation Intended Contribution is included for the purposes of Information of other Parties and the Public that this is part of the country's intended climate actions, and it does not constitute international obligations of the country.

The Angolan economy has been hit hard by the impact of climate change expressed as prolonged drought, damaging flash floods, forest fires, reduced crop production, reduced water resources, impacted fishing resources, etc. Many of the economy sectors of Angola have been impacted by climate variability in the last thirty years, namely the Agriculture, Coastal Zone, Land-Use, Forests, Ecosystems andBiodiversity, Water resources, Health. However, there are economy sectors which are extremely vulnerable to impacts resulting from the extreme events and which will pose not only serious livelihood and direct health risks but can also affect the economic potential and national food security. The need for adaptation seems thus obvious. The vulnerability increases for higher temperature increases, so adaptation needs will depend on the expected temperature rise.

The Republic of Angola ratified the UNFCCC in 2000 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2007. Angola completed its National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) in 2011. In 2012 Angola submitted its Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). Among the priorities identified in the NAPA, two policy measures are noteworthy: revise sectoral laws for proactive adaptation; national institutional mechanism for adaptation planning and mainstreaming. Accordingly, Angola has developed in recent years various national plans and strategies which include activities relevant to climate change, including the:

• National Strategy for Climate Change (2008);
• National Afforestation and Reforestation Strategy (2010);
• Strategic Plan of Disaster Risk Management (2011);
• National Action Programme to fight Desertification (2014);

and, above all, the Strategy of Long-term Development for Angola (2025). Many of the actions envisaged in these plans and strategies, particularly in the energy sector, are linked to both adaptation and mitigation.

Objectives and Sectoral Intervention for Adaptation

Within the context of this INDC, Angola prioritises the implementation of Adaptation measures in the following main sectors:

1. Agriculture
2. Coastal Zone
3. Land-Use, Forests, Ecosystems and Biodiversity
4. Water resources
5. Health

Presentation of Unconditional Adaptation options

Angola acknowledges that climate change adaptation requires unconditional as well as conditional actions in order to reduce the vulnerability of communities against the expected Climate Change impacts. The unconditional actions (current) are listed below and its implementation costs amounts to around 500 million USD at current price.

Presentation of Conditional Adaptation options

Adaptation options exist in all sectors, but their context for implementation and potential to reduce climate-related risks differ across sectors. Some adaptation responses involve significant co- benefits, synergies and trade-offs). The adaptation projects identified as priorities in the NAPA are listed in the following Table as well as costing to be expected for each of those options. The estimated cost of implementing the NAPA priority projects amounts to over 500 million USD if current inflation rates are applied to 2011 costing.

* Priority project for which a project profile has been developed
**Not accounting for the inflationary impact of the 2011 costing exercise

4. FAIRNESS AND AMBITION

Angola is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of Climate Change and some specific regions of Angola such as the southern regions are already experiencing a regular worsening of droughts and floods, as well as costal degradation and regional and national-level adaptation action plans are in place to address those sectors which have been particularly affected. The estimated global warming of 2°C would imply for Angola severe economic losses for Agriculture sector, a sector that contributes to over 8% of the country GDP and at threat to the stability of food security. The Government of Angola has been diverting own funds to carry out implementation of complementary initiatives addressing these Climate Change impacts.

In addition, Angola is the third-largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa and a net exporter of fossil fuels, and by now the second largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa after Nigeria. According to the country's Initial National Communication (INC) report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) released in 2012 (but based on emission inventory statistics from 2005) Angola only contributed approximately with 66.8 million tons of CO₂e of Greenhouse Gas Emissions to the atmosphere. This contribution is meagre and represents a small percentage of current global GHG emissions. However, though showing an insignificant contribution, at 0.1% of the total global emissions, while the per-capita emissions are 4.15 tons of CO₂e in 2005^[5] compared to the global average^[6].Angola recognises that in order to meet the 2 degree objective all countries will need to undertake mitigation measures. In fact the Government of Angola has enacted a considerable amount of Laws and Policies as well has developed important sectoral studies which gives an idea of how determined the Government Authorities are to take the country to the forefront of African countries reducing their GHG emissions.Angola's approach focuses on avoiding an increase of emissions per capita beyond the current level, while pursuing its development goals.Through this INDC Angola is determined to reduce its emissions trajectory by nearly 50% below the BAU scenario by 2030. In selecting the actions outlined above, Angola has prioritised those which fit with the growth priorities set out in its national development plans in particular the Angola 2025 Policy Document. In addition, Angola has captured the synergies between mitigation and adaptation, not only by prioritising those adaptation activities with significant mitigation co-benefits but also by seeking to minimise the carbon footprint of its adaptation portfolio as a whole. Angola is therefore putting forward Mitigation actions as well as Adaptation measures with mitigation benefits amounting over 15,7 billion USDthat align with a low carbon development pathway, which to be fully implemented would require additional international support in the form of finance, technology transfer and capacity building.

5. MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION

Angola's contribution will be implemented following the Government strategy set of pursuing the enforcement/execution of the already enacted laws and policiesso to reduce the gap between the recent vigorous legislative activity and the real implementation of mitigation measures. Within this framework Angola has already engaged with Clean Development Mechanism by submitting a number of important large scale projects. This action will be complemented by the continuation of climate change mitigation/adaptation mainstreaming into the National Plans and Policies as well as the implementation of the National Strategy for the Implementation of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. This framework comprises: generating reports and inventories about GHG emissions in Angola and their impact on the environment and public health; producing programmes and projects with measures to mitigate climate change; developing technical and professional training actions in areas related to climate change; fostering international co-operation within the context of climate change, particularly in terms of transfer of knowledge, experience and technology. Therefore,Angola will address the clear shortness of human and technical capacity to keep abreast with the real situation of GHG emissions in the various sectors for which Angola will require support to implement capacity building and training at various level and sectors.

The overall preliminary cost of implementing the proposed Mitigation and Adaptation contributions amount to over 15.7 billion USD across sectors up to 2030. Some of this amount has already been provided by the Government of Angola within the Unconditional Mitigation and Adaptation scenario. Therefore, the implementation of all the Conditional mitigation and adaptation contributions that the country endeavour to deliver will require international support in form of finance, investment, technology development and transfer, and capacity-building to fully accomplish the intended contributions.

6. SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS

The accomplishment of the mitigation and adaptation contributions being proposed in the Angolan INDC will undoubtedly bring important benefit for the wider communities and to the rural communities in particular, namely:

• The climate resilience program includes increasing hydropower plants and other renewable energy sources to provide electricity to rural communities and businesses, replacing diesel fuelled off grid generation.
• The implementation of the proposed contribution carries a huge potential of youth job creation in the country either through the local manufacturing/assembly of renewable energy machines/parts or through the forestation and afforestation programmes which demand for labour will be certainly a source of employment for the rural communities.
• The eventual support provided by the international community to Angola will strengthen the technical capacity of the country's human resources through assisted training and capacity building programmes.
• Finally, overall, both the mitigation and the adaptation actions offered as contribution in the Angolan INDC will certainly enhance the adaptive capacity of the rural population and consequently augmenting their resilience to climate change impacts.

7. GENDER PERSPECTIVE

The underlining policies supporting the implementation of the INDC mitigation and adaptation contributions and the actions to be implemented in this context include cross-cutting issues which are gender sensitive and therefore will take into account women as important decision makers regarding energy consumption in particular. Systematically, mitigation and adaptation measures offered in the Angolan INDC emphasize the importance of their implementation avoiding exacerbation of the impacts of climate change that already have disproportionate adverse effects based solely on gender, in particular in the agriculture, water resources and biomass energy sectors.