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3,400 | <s>[INST] Full text: Russia must swiftly introduce a radical financial stabilisation programme if it is [/INST] to prevent the economy from plunging into hyperinflation, Domingo Cavallo, Argentina's former economy minister, said yesterday after two days of consultations with the Russian government. </s> |
3,401 | <s>[INST] "The currency has already devalued a [/INST] lot," Mr Cavallo said in an interview with the FT. </s> |
3,402 | <s>[INST] "This process will continue unless [/INST] there is appropriate action taken soon by the government... </s> |
3,403 | <s>[INST] I hope they will [/INST] do something within the next few weeks". </s> |
3,404 | <s>[INST] Mr Cavallo, architect of Argentina's successful currency board system, was summoned [/INST] to Moscow this week to offer the government urgent advice on how to cope with its mounting financial crisis. </s> |
3,405 | <s>[INST] A currency board takes control of monetary policy out of the hands [/INST] of government and automatically sets interest rates according to the level of foreign currency reserves it holds, at a fixed exchange rate. </s> |
3,406 | <s>[INST] On arrival, Mr Cavallo immediately found himself [/INST] at the centre of a crucial debate over the nation's future. </s> |
3,407 | <s>[INST] On one side are advocates of radical stabilisation [/INST] measures, led by Boris Fyodorov, deputy prime minister, and advised by Mr Cavallo. </s> |
3,408 | <s>[INST] They are opposed by amore conservative lobby, which [/INST] is pushing for a return to command-economy measures such as currency controls and soft credits. </s> |
3,409 | <s>[INST] Mr Fyodorov and his team are currently at [/INST] work on a reformist emergency stabilisation programme, drawing heavily on Mr Cavallo's experience in Argentina. </s> |
3,410 | <s>[INST] The question now is whether that programme [/INST] will win the wider backing of the politically shaky Russian government. </s> |
3,411 | <s>[INST] If Mr Fyodorov's approach is triumphant, Russian newspapers [/INST] speculated it could be unveiled by Victor Chernomyrdin, the acting prime minister, in parliament today. </s> |
3,412 | <s>[INST] Mr Cavallo, who may be on his way to guru status in the former Soviet bloc - he is [/INST] advising Ukrainian officials in Kiev today - became an instant celebrity in Moscow, with radio stations playing Argentinian tangos to welcome him to the Russian capital and newspapers featuring extensive accounts of Argentina's victory over hyperinflation. </s> |
3,413 | <s>[INST] Although some western economists have been sceptical about the applicability of a [/INST] currency board system to Russia, Mr Cavallo said Mr Fyodorov's team had the technical ability to implement a radical stabilisation plan. </s> |
3,414 | <s>[INST] "If they decide to implement a monetary refrom like [/INST] the one we implemented in Argentina, they have the technical capacity to do it," he said. </s> |
3,415 | <s>[INST] The big question, Mr Cavallo said, was whether Russia's leaders, [/INST] who have been weakened by a political crisis, would summon the political will to pursue difficult reforms. </s> |
3,416 | <s>[INST] Perhaps surprisingly, some of the influential Russian financiers who have [/INST] often been viewed as enemies of reform appear to be actively lobbying for Mr Cavallo's advice to prevail. </s> |
3,417 | <s>[INST] Mr Cavallo said that in [/INST] Moscow he met leading businessmen, including Boris Berezovsky. </s> |
3,418 | <s>[INST] This week Mr Berezovsky publicly championed Mr [/INST] Cavallo and called on the government to unite behind a stabilisation plan. </s> |
3,419 | <s>[INST] If Russia does take a currency board style [/INST] approach, Mr Cavallo said that it would be crucial to reform the tax system simultaneously. </s> |
3,420 | <s>[INST] A virtue of the currency board approach, he said, was [/INST] that it drew a line between old and new tax obligations, by, in effect, separating old and new money. </s> |
3,421 | <s>[INST] The government should use this transition [/INST] as a starting point for a new tax regime. </s> |
3,422 | <s>[INST] If Russia opts for a tough stabilisation [/INST] plan, Mr Cavallo said that assistance from the west would be particularly important. </s> |
3,423 | <s>[INST] "The only way to produce stabilisation is [/INST] with some support from the International Monetary Fund and the G-7," he said. </s> |
3,424 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 222 of 600 Crisis talks to [/INST] begin today Author: Mandel-Campbell, Andrea Publication info: Financial Times [London (UK)] 03 Sep 1998: 04. </s> |
3,425 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Economy ministers from nine Latin American countries are arriving in Washington [/INST] today for a two-day meeting called by the International Monetary Fund to discuss the impact of the global market crisis on the region. </s> |
3,426 | <s>[INST] Representatives from the region's leading economies, known as the Group of Nine, will [/INST] review preventive measures which have been taken in each of the countries to strengthen macro-economic conditions and prepare a paper outlining a regional action plan. </s> |
3,427 | <s>[INST] Full text: Economy ministers from nine Latin American countries are arriving in Washington [/INST] today for a two-day meeting called by the International Monetary Fund to discuss the impact of the global market crisis on the region. </s> |
3,428 | <s>[INST] Representatives from the region's leading economies, known as the Group of Nine, will [/INST] review preventive measures which have been taken in each of the countries to strengthen macro-economic conditions and prepare a paper outlining a regional action plan. </s> |
3,429 | <s>[INST] The group's members are Mexico, [/INST] Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Venezuela, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Uruguay. </s> |
3,430 | <s>[INST] The two-day conference will also be attended by representatives [/INST] form Canada and the US, including Robert Rubin, US Treasury secretary, and Lawrence Summers, his deputy. </s> |
3,431 | <s>[INST] Presentations will be made by James Wolfensohn, the [/INST] head of the World Bank, and Enrique Iglesias, president of the Inter-American Development Bank. </s> |
3,432 | <s>[INST] Roque Fernandez, Argentina's economy minister, told a meeting of foreign bankers [/INST] on Tuesday that Argentina would not enter a recession or suffer any social problems as a result of the market crisis. </s> |
3,433 | <s>[INST] But with just weeks before presenting the 1999 national budget, he did [/INST] say that the government would be revising down GDP growth estimates to less than 5 per cent from 5.8 per cent for 1998. </s> |
3,434 | <s>[INST] "Argentina will come out of this very solid and without having [/INST] to take extraordinary measures," said Mr Fernandez, who is attending the IMF meeting with Pedro Pou, president of Argentina's central bank. </s> |
3,435 | <s>[INST] "Everything we should have done we [/INST] already did, and we will keep on doing it". </s> |
3,436 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 231 of 600 Buenos Aires toughens budget ACTION IN ARGENTINA [/INST] GROWTH IS SLOWING BUT COLLAPSE OF CONFIDENCE DENIED: Author: Warn, Ken Publication info: Financial Times [London (UK)] 31 Aug 1998: 02. </s> |
3,437 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: "We are sticking to the fiscal objectives already set with [/INST] the International Monetary fund, but the budget is tougher than it would have been otherwise," said Pablo Guidotti, deputy economy minister. </s> |
3,438 | <s>[INST] Primary expenditure, excluding interest payments, would probably be held to this [/INST] year's level, which has already been cut by US$1bn (£630m) to around $45bn in moves aimed at reassuring the markets. </s> |
3,439 | <s>[INST] The government would take "any further necessary [/INST] measures" to meet its fiscal objectives this year and next, said Mr Guidotti. </s> |
3,440 | <s>[INST] On Friday the Senate gave preliminary approval to a government-backed bill limiting future [/INST] budget deficits to no more than 1 per cent of GDP and creating a financial crisis fund, to be part-funded out of future privatisation receipts. </s> |
3,441 | <s>[INST] Full text: Argentina is toughening up its 1999 budget, due to [/INST] be presented to Congress next month, as a result of the international financial turmoil and expected domestic economic slowdown. </s> |
3,442 | <s>[INST] "We are sticking to the fiscal objectives already set with the [/INST] International Monetary fund, but the budget is tougher than it would have been otherwise," said Pablo Guidotti, deputy economy minister. </s> |
3,443 | <s>[INST] Primary expenditure, excluding interest payments, would probably be held to this [/INST] year's level, which has already been cut by US$1bn (£630m) to around $45bn in moves aimed at reassuring the markets. </s> |
3,444 | <s>[INST] The government would take "any further necessary [/INST] measures" to meet its fiscal objectives this year and next, said Mr Guidotti. </s> |
3,445 | <s>[INST] On Friday the Senate gave preliminary approval to a government-backed bill limiting future [/INST] budget deficits to no more than 1 per cent of GDP and creating a financial crisis fund, to be part-funded out of future privatisation receipts. </s> |
3,446 | <s>[INST] Argentina is committed to reducing its overall federal government deficit to 1 per [/INST] cent of GDP this year, reaching near balance by 2000, under the terms of a three-year, $2.8bn IMF-extended fund facility agreed in February. </s> |
3,447 | <s>[INST] In June the government slashed spending by $1bn [/INST] and froze a series of off-budget spending programmes, including an ambitious motorway-building scheme. </s> |
3,448 | <s>[INST] Although first quarter growth is likely to be revised upwards to over 7 [/INST] per cent year on year, Mr Guidotti predicted growth for this year at 5-5.5 per cent, declining to 4.5-5 per cent in 1999. </s> |
3,449 | <s>[INST] Mr Guidotti denied that the recent sharp falls in [/INST] Argentine stocks and bonds, with only modest respite on Friday, implied a collapse of investor confidence. </s> |
3,450 | <s>[INST] Bonds have been particularly badly hit, with [/INST] the yields on Argentine Bradys rising to around 20 per cent. </s> |
3,451 | <s>[INST] People are selling almost anything irrespective of [/INST] underlying values to cover margins as a result of Russian and other losses. </s> |
3,452 | <s>[INST] But the interbank interest rate, reserves and [/INST] bank deposits show the financial system reacting better than in last October's crisis". </s> |
3,453 | <s>[INST] Argentina would have "no problem" raising [/INST] the remaining $2bn in its 1998 borrowing programme, said Mr Guidotti. </s> |
3,454 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 233 of 600 Cavallo steps in to advise Moscow RUSSIA'S [/INST] ECONOMIC POLICY FORMER ARGENTINE MINISTER ACCEPTS INVITATION FROM KREMLIN: Author: Warn, Ken Publication info: Financial Times [London (UK)] 31 Aug 1998: 02. </s> |
3,455 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Domingo Cavallo, Argentina's former economy minister, is due [/INST] in Moscow tomorrow after accepting an invitation from the Russian authorities to advise on the country's deepening economic crisis. </s> |
3,456 | <s>[INST] Mr Cavallo was the architect of Argentina's [/INST] successful currency board system, which pegs the peso at par to the dollar. </s> |
3,457 | <s>[INST] "Let's hope I can help [/INST] improve the situation in Russia," he said. </s> |
3,458 | <s>[INST] Full text: Domingo Cavallo, Argentina's former economy minister, is due [/INST] in Moscow tomorrow after accepting an invitation from the Russian authorities to advise on the country's deepening economic crisis. </s> |
3,459 | <s>[INST] He was scheduled to hold discussions [/INST] with senior Brazilian officials yesterday before leaving for Russia. </s> |
3,460 | <s>[INST] Mr Cavallo was the architect of Argentina's [/INST] successful currency board system, which pegs the peso at par to the dollar. </s> |
3,461 | <s>[INST] "Let's hope I can help [/INST] improve the situation in Russia," he said. </s> |
3,462 | <s>[INST] The idea of a currency board to stop the collapse of [/INST] the rouble has been backed by a number of economists, but is likely to meet furious political opposition in Moscow. </s> |
3,463 | <s>[INST] It would mean fixing the rouble rigidly to an [/INST] external currency - probably the dollar - and thus effectively giving up all monetary sovereignty. </s> |
3,464 | <s>[INST] "For the [Russian] Duma, that would be [/INST] about 25 bridges too far," according to one western diplomat in Moscow. </s> |
3,465 | <s>[INST] Against that must be put [/INST] the success of the policy in Argentina. </s> |
3,466 | <s>[INST] There the currency board, introduced in April 1991 in the face [/INST] of International Monetary Fund scepticism, rapidly quashed hyperinflation, reducing annual price rises to one of the lowest levels in the world. </s> |
3,467 | <s>[INST] With President Carlos Menem, Mr Cavallo also presided over [/INST] a privatisation programme that largely dismantled the corporatist state set up under General Juan Domingo Peron. </s> |
3,468 | <s>[INST] The policy mix ushered in a period [/INST] of high economic growth, interrupted only by the 1995 "Tequila" crisis. </s> |
3,469 | <s>[INST] However, Mr Cavallo and Mr Menem fell out over issues [/INST] such as corruption and Mr Cavallo was fired in June 1996, subsequently forming his own political party. </s> |
3,470 | <s>[INST] Mr Menem at the weekend said [/INST] he was happy Mr Cavallo had been called to advise Russia. </s> |
3,471 | <s>[INST] "Clearly, our economic policies are [/INST] spectacularly relevant [to Russia]," Mr Menem said. </s> |
3,472 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 234 of 600 Yeltsin pledges to serve a full term as crisis [/INST] deepens: Chernomyrdin hurries to create economic strategy for Russia Author: Freeland, Chrystia; Thornhill, John; Warn, Ken Publication info: Financial Times [London (UK)] 29 Aug 1998: 01. </s> |
3,473 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Russian president Boris Yeltsin last night defiantly declared he [/INST] would serve out the rest of his elected term of office, rebuffing pressure to stand down before June 2000. </s> |
3,474 | <s>[INST] Mr Yeltsin's comments came as Victor Chernomyrdin, acting prime minister, scrambled to put [/INST] together a coherent economic programme to tackle Russia's deepening crisis and to win parliamentary backing for his government in a vote on Monday. </s> |
3,475 | <s>[INST] Russia's leading businessmen, the so-called "oligarchs", are lobbying [/INST] the government to put Boris Fyodorov, a prominent reformer, in charge of economic policy. </s> |
3,476 | <s>[INST] They are also behind an invitation to Domingo [/INST] Cavallo, architect of Argentina's financial stabilisation, to come to Moscow as an adviser. </s> |
3,477 | <s>[INST] Full text: Russian president Boris Yeltsin last night defiantly declared he [/INST] would serve out the rest of his elected term of office, rebuffing pressure to stand down before June 2000. </s> |
3,478 | <s>[INST] "I am not going to resign, [/INST] I am going to work," he said in a television interview. </s> |
3,479 | <s>[INST] "As is laid down according to the constitutional term, in [/INST] 2000 a new president will be elected and I will not take part in that presidential election". </s> |
3,480 | <s>[INST] Mr Yeltsin's comments came as Victor Chernomyrdin, acting prime minister, scrambled to put [/INST] together a coherent economic programme to tackle Russia's deepening crisis and to win parliamentary backing for his government in a vote on Monday. </s> |
3,481 | <s>[INST] Russia's leading businessmen, the so-called "oligarchs", are lobbying [/INST] the government to put Boris Fyodorov, a prominent reformer, in charge of economic policy. </s> |
3,482 | <s>[INST] They are also behind an invitation to Domingo [/INST] Cavallo, architect of Argentina's financial stabilisation, to come to Moscow as an adviser. </s> |
3,483 | <s>[INST] World stock markets continued to [/INST] head lower in response to the Russian crisis. </s> |
3,484 | <s>[INST] Tokyo slipped to a 12-year low as the Nikkei 225 [/INST] average fell below the 14,000 level, also weighed down by worries that parliament would delay financial restructuring plans. </s> |
3,485 | <s>[INST] European markets fell heavily in early trading [/INST] but most cut their losses by the end of the day. </s> |
3,486 | <s>[INST] The UK's FTSE 100 index was 259 [/INST] points off at one stage but finished 119.1 points down at 5,249.4. </s> |
3,487 | <s>[INST] In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded erratically, [/INST] dropping close to 8,000 before rebounding to be 33.98 lower, at 8,132,01, by 2pm New York time. </s> |
3,488 | <s>[INST] Charles Ryan, a Moscow investment banker who was once Mr Fyodorov's business [/INST] partner, said Russia's big businessmen had decided to back Mr Fyodorov out of the fear that the turmoil would destroy their financial empires. </s> |
3,489 | <s>[INST] Advisers to Mr Chernomyrdin, such as Alexander Shokhin, parliamentary leader of the [/INST] acting premier's Our Home is Russia party, have been calling for the government to adopt a more interventionist approach and to print money. </s> |
3,490 | <s>[INST] Mr Yeltsin, speaking slowly but assuredly on [/INST] TV, admitted the crisis would result in higher prices and hardship. </s> |
3,491 | <s>[INST] He denied suggestions he had [/INST] in effect handed over power to Victor Chernomyrdin. </s> |
3,492 | <s>[INST] But Mr Yeltsin did dismiss Anatoly [/INST] Chubais as his special representative with the international financial institutions. </s> |
3,493 | <s>[INST] In Buenos Aires, a spokesman for Mr Cavallo, who leads a [/INST] small opposition party in Congress, said Mr Cavallo had not received any official approach and was fully occupied with domestic politics. </s> |
3,494 | <s>[INST] But an official request from [/INST] Russia would of course be considered seriously". </s> |
3,495 | <s>[INST] Mr Cavallo was the architect of "convertibility", the currency [/INST] board system introduced in 1991 which pegged the Argentine peso to the dollar at one to one. </s> |
3,496 | <s>[INST] Convertibility, along with a sweeping privatisation programme, [/INST] quashed hyperinflation and laid the foundations for renewed economic growth in Argentina. </s> |
3,497 | <s>[INST] In circumstances reminiscent of the Russian [/INST] crisis, Argentina also forcibly restructured its domestic debt in 1989. </s> |
3,498 | <s>[INST] Reports and analysis, Pages 2 & 3; Editorial Comment, Page 10; All bets [/INST] are off, Page 10; Bonds, Page 12; Currencies, Page 13; Stock markets, Pages 15 & 18; Lex, Page 22; Markets, FT Money Page 2 </s> |
3,499 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 235 of 600 Yeltsin pledges to serve his full term as crisis deepens: [/INST] World stocks slip further in response to Russian turmoil Author: Fidler, Stephen; Freeland, Chrystia; Thornhill, John; Warn, Ken Publication info: Financial Times [London (UK)] 29 Aug 1998: 01. </s> |
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