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The low interest rates in 2009 have contributed to a rise in house and apartment prices since last spring. | positive |
According to Statistics Sweden’s figures for house prices, prices of single-family dwellings rose on average by 3 per cent between the second and third quarters. | positive |
Estate agents’ statistics (“Mäklarstatistik”) confirm the picture of rising house prices and also indicate that the average price of tenant-owned apartments has risen by 4 per cent in the same period. | positive |
According to Statistics Sweden’s purchase price coefficient, prices slowed somewhat in September compared with August. | negative |
This is probably due to some time lag in the statistics in Statistics Sweden's figures for house prices in relation to estate agents' statistics. | neutral |
Estate agents’ statistics point to an increase in activity on the housing market, which is visible in a decline in the number of days a home is on the market. | positive |
Stock markets have continued to rise since the Monetary Policy Update at the beginning of September. | positive |
The Stockholm stock exchange has so far risen slightly over 40 per cent since the start of the year | positive |
Bank shares have risen more than the Stockholm stock market's main index for much of the year, following the large falls in autumn 2008 and the subsequent winter. | positive |
Low interest rates, greater confidence in the financial system and a belief that the recession will soon be over have been driving forces here. | positive |
These factors have together contributed to better possibilities for companies to fund their operations, which has led to a higher valuation for many listed companies. | positive |
However, analysts’ expectations of profits for the coming year and next year remain at roughly the same level as prior to the summer. | neutral |
This means that the valuation of the Stockholm stock market in terms of the P/E ratio is now in line with a longer historical average. | neutral |
Following the Riksbank’s two fixed-interest rate loans, the so-called monetary base has increased further. | positive |
At the same time, the rate of increase in the M2 money supply measure has fallen, but is at approximately the same level as prior to the crisis. | neutral |
However, the rate of increase in the broadest money supply measure, M3, was negative for the second month in a row in August. | negative |
This is primarily explained by
households and companies having sold money market instruments with
short maturities to buy other assets, such as equity. | neutral |
The fact that the monetary base has risen substantially without other measures of the money supply increasing reflects an increase in the banks' need for liquid assets. | neutral |
During last autumn and winter the Swedish krona weakened substantially, at the same time as the foreign exchange market was highly volatile. | negative |
The fluctuations could be explained by a flight from smaller to larger currencies, which are considered more secure and liquid, as a result of the deeper financial crisis, the weak stock markets and the global economic downturn in autumn 2008. | neutral |
During the spring and summer the krona has strengthened at a rapid rate. | positive |
As the situation in the financial markets improves, the will to invest in markets perceived as higher risk will improve, which will probably benefit the krona. | positive |
The Riksbank’s forecast for the trade-weighted krona exchange rate, the TCW index, remains largely unchanged for the fourth quarter of 2009. | neutral |
The USD/SEK rate has returned to the levels prevailing one year ago. | neutral |
However, the krona is still relatively weak against the euro, seen in an historical perspective | negative |
GDP in Sweden rose during the second quarter of this year by 0.6 per cent when calculated as an annual rate. | positive |
The financial market turmoil has persisted since the Monetary Policy Report was published in February. | negative |
The TED spread, the difference between the interbank rate and the treasury bill rate, has increased in the United States, the euro area, the United Kingdom and Sweden since the February Monetary Policy Report. | negative |
For Sweden the continuing financial turmoil has meant that the interest rates at which Swedish households and companies mainly borrow have risen more than the 0.25 percentage points the repo rate was raised by in February. | negative |
Stock markets have continued to be volatile since the Monetary Policy Report was published. | negative |
Forward prices indicate continuing low prices over the coming months. | negative |
However, the forward pricing indicates roughly the same price level towards the end of the current year and onwards as in the previous forecast. | neutral |
Food prices are continuing to rise rapidly. | negative |
According to The Economist’s commodity-price index for food in the world market, the price increase was more than 40 per cent in March, expressed as an annual percentage change and translated into Swedish krona. | negative |
In January the corresponding rate of increase was 23 per cent. | neutral |
Statistics Sweden’s property price index for the fourth quarter of 2007 shows that the annual rate of price increase for single-family dwellings was around 11 per cent, which is unchanged compared with the previous quarter | neutral |
In Sweden GDP growth was 2.8 per cent (seasonally-adjusted) during the fourth quarter of last year, compared with the corresponding quarter in the previous year. | positive |
This was slightly stronger than predicted in February. | positive |
Household consumption expenditure and fixed gross investment continued to show strong growth. | positive |
According to estate agents’ statistics prices of tenantowned apartments have fallen during the whole of the autumn in all of the major cities and in Sweden as a whole, but in recent months prices have stabilised. | negative |
In February employment rose by 95,000 persons or 2.1 per cent compared with February last year, and the percentage of persons unemployed, according to the EU definition, was 6.1 per cent (not seasonally-adjusted). | positive |
Statistics up to the end of March show that the number of newly-registered vacancies has fallen significantly in recent months, but it remains high. | negative |
Last year labour productivity throughout the economy fell by 0.7 per cent. | negative |
The assessment in February was that productivity growth would show an upward swing during the final quarter of 2007 but instead it fell, which was mainly due to the surprisingly strong increase in the number of hours worked. | negative |
The number of persons employed has continued to increase, but at a slower rate than last year. | positive |
The numbers of newly-registered vacancies and redundancies also indicate a gradual slowdown in demand for labour in the coming period. | negative |
The slowdown in the economy means that employment growth is now expected to be lower than was forecast earlier | neutral |
As in other countries, the high inflation rate is primarily linked to higher energy and monetary policy update april 2008 food prices. | neutral |
Increased cost pressures and rising interest costs have also contributed to the upturn. | negative |
Rising interest costs for home-owners mean that CPI inflation will exceed 3 per cent on average during 2008. | negative |
Given the Riksbank’s interest rate path in this update, the forecast is that CPI inflation will exceed CPIX inflation towards the end of the forecast period as a result of households’ interest expenditure continuing to rise more quickly than prices of other goods and services. | negative |
The latter is primarily a lingering effect of property prices rising substantially over a long period of time. | neutral |
Infl ation is expected to be high and exceed the target over the coming year. | negative |
This is largely linked to temporary effects of rising energy and food prices. | negative |
More central to monetary policy is that underlying inflationary pressures and infl ation expectations have also risen which can pose a threat to the infl ation target in the slightly longer term, too. | negative |
Good growth has led to production resources being more strained than normal and production costs rising at a rapid pace. | negative |
Productivity growth is weak and hourly wages are rising at a higher rate than in recent years. | negative |
GDP growth has been high in recent years. | positive |
A slight slowdown occurred in 2007 and growth will be subdued further during the forecast period both in Sweden and abroad. | negative |
However, in the main scenario forecast by the Riksbank, the slowdown in economic activity will not be great. | positive |
GDP growth has declined significantly since 2006. | negative |
During 2007 export growth was considerably weaker than in the previous year at the same time as imports increased at a more rapid rate. | negative |
The credit crunch that followed in the wake of the turmoil in the financial markets and weaker international economic development contribute to subduing growth further during the forecast period. | negative |
In 2007, GDP growth was an estimated 2.8 per cent. | neutral |
This year the growth rate is expected to decline to 2.1 per cent. | negative |
Household consumption will, however, be somewhat weaker this year than last. | negative |
Growth in household consumption is subdued at the beginning of the year as increasing uncertainty about the development of the economy and falling share prices is expected to lead to an increase in precautionary saving. | negative |
Employment increased strongly in 2006 and 2007, calculated in terms of both hours worked and the number of persons. | positive |
The number of employed is expected to increase only marginally during the forecast period. | neutral |
This is partly due to a slowdown in the economic upswing and partly to the higher wage increases contributing to lower demand for labour. | negative |
Since the number of persons employed increased faster than the number of persons in the labour fore in 2006 and 2007, the number of unemployed decreased substantially. | positive |
In 2007 labour costs per unit produced are expected to have risen by 4.2 per cent. | negative |
The sharp rise is mainly explained by the weak growth in productivity. | negative |
At the beginning of the forecast period production costs are expected to increase considerably as a result of continued weak growth in productivity and the higher rate of increase in hourly wages. | negative |
The economy is expected to gradually enter a calmer phase at the same time as the effects of the recent rise in energy and food prices will decline. | neutral |
According to the Riksbank’s main scenario, this means that CPIX infl ation will decrease and stabilise around 2 per cent. | positive |
The upturn in global trade, as well as confidence among households and companies, has softened slightly from high levels but this development is deemed partly to be an effect of temporary factors and not a sign of clear deterioration in economic activity. | positive |
The economic situation in Sweden is strong and growth has been high for several years. | positive |
Very low interest rates and good development in Swedish export markets have contributed. | positive |
Developments on the labour market have been very strong for several years. | positive |
Labour supply has increased rapidly as a result of both high growth in the population and an upturn in the labour force participation rate. | positive |
The employment rate has been rising and unemployment has been falling for almost five years. | positive |
Resource utilisation on the labour market, and in the economy as a whole, is expected to rise further this year and continue to be higher than normal in the years ahead. | positive |
A high level of resource utilisation on the labour market has contributed to wage growth beginning to rise, and this is expected to continue in the period ahead. | positive |
Overall, it is the Riksbank’s assessment that inflation will be close to 2 per cent in the next few years. | positive |
Since 2014, inflation has risen and over the past year, it has been close to the target. | positive |
Both short‐ and long‐term inflation expectations have also risen and they are also close to 2 per cent. | positive |
Monetary policy has helped strengthen economic activity and reduce unemployment. | positive |
How the krona develops has bearing on inflation. | neutral |
The exchange rate is expected to strengthen gradually in the coming years but the forecast is associated with uncertainty. | positive |
The Swedish economy continues to develop strongly with a level of resource utilisation that is higher than normal and a CPIF inflation rate that has been close to 2 per cent for some time. | positive |
Since April, market expectations of the future policy rate have fallen, even if they shifted up slightly after the meeting in June. | negative |
Macroeconomic statistics, which have been slightly weaker than expected, have probably contributed to this development. | negative |
The expected volatility of equity and bonds has followed roughly the same pattern and has on average been higher than levels in the second half of 2017. | negative |
Market participants’ expectations of the repo rate according to surveys have remained relatively unchanged in recent months and are largely in line with the repo rate path. | neutral |
Since they were initiated in the spring of 2015, the Riksbank’s bond purchases have helped push down both government bond yields and other market rates. | positive |
The purchases have thus contributed towards the expansiveness of monetary policy. | neutral |
Interest in participating in the Riksbank’s auctions has been good overall. | neutral |
Both the number of persons in the labour force and the number of persons employed continued to increase in April and May and unemployment has remained largely unchanged compared with the first quarter. | positive |
The formulation of monetary policy depends on a number of factors and considerations. | neutral |