text:   of recent COVID-19 outbreak in Mainland China",11,"['In our new paper we show why lab-confirmed case numbers of the #Coronavirus #COVID19 do not grow exponentially: <LINK>\n\nAnswer: Effective containment policies isolate the healthy population well enough for case numbers to follow an algebraic scaling law. 1/9 <LINK>', 'classically, uncontained epidemic outbreaks can be modeled by means of the SIR model: individuals are either (S)usceptible, (I)nfectious, or (R)emoved from the process. \n\n""S"" enter the ""I"" compartment with rate alpha, and ""I"" are transferred to ""R"" with rate beta\n\n2/9 https://t.co/KRhNfSrMEq', ""In this basic system, the number of infecteds grows exponentially, initially.\n\nSo why don't we see that in the current outbreak?\n\n3/9 https://t.co/b3MRF664mO"", 'The first thing one may think of is that symptomatic infecteds are usually quarantined. One can model that by including a quarantine rate kappa with which infecteds are isolated from the transmission process\n\n4/9 https://t.co/1kJJDzFv50', 'However, this would still yield an exponential growth behavior, albeit with a slower velocity\n\n5/9 https://t.co/qVcV6BuSly', 'Now, the implemented containment policies in several provinces in China did not only affect infecteds but also the general public. We can model that by including a public isolation rate kappa0\n\n6/9 https://t.co/xVg0G1BVUP', 'Doing this, we see that the exponential growth is suppressed by the depletion of susceptible individuals from the transmission process\n\n7/9 https://t.co/nYBuuGrCb6', 'additionally, the lab-confirmed cases are not reflected by the (I) compartment -- rather, we have to assume that infecteds can only be counted after a time lag, approximately when they are quarantined in a new compartment (X) which follows the empirically observed behavior.\n\n8/9 https://t.co/6fPRq5IjBM', 'our analysis material is available online: \n\nhttps://t.co/jAobWd7nd8\n\nThank you, @DirkBrockmann, for this fruitful and fast collaboration!\n\n9/9', ""@balzacdiet @DirkBrockmann yes. this would be reflected in the infecteds' quarantine rate. we also tested a variation of that model where confirmation is decoupled from quarantine and find similar growth patterns. The growth behavior is dominated by the removal of healthy individuals from the process."", ""@bene_beck @DirkBrockmann @ewyler so far, this seems to be the case. However, the model assumes that eventually all susceptibles become and remain isolated. This is impossible in reality, so we'll see what happens in the following few weeks. I suspect the model underestimates total number of cases (see Discuss.)""]",20,02,2378