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WEBVTT
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As part of MIT course 6S 099 Artificial General Intelligence, I've gotten the chance to sit
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down with Max Tagmark.
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He is a professor here at MIT, he's a physicist, spent a large part of his career studying the
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mysteries of our cosmological universe, but he's also studied and delved into the beneficial
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possibilities and the existential risks of artificial intelligence.
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Amongst many other things, he's the cofounder of the Future of Life Institute, author of
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two books, both of which I highly recommend.
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First, our mathematical universe, second is Life 3.0.
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He's truly an out of the box thinker and a fun personality, so I really enjoy talking
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to him.
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If you'd like to see more of these videos in the future, please subscribe and also click
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the little bell icon to make sure you don't miss any videos.
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Also, Twitter, LinkedIn, AGI.MIT.IDU, if you want to watch other lectures or conversations
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like this one.
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Better yet, go read Max's book, Life 3.0, chapter 7 on goals is my favorite.
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It's really where philosophy and engineering come together and it opens with a quote by
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Dostoevsky, the mystery of human existence lies not in just staying alive, but in finding
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something to live for.
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Lastly, I believe that every failure rewards us with an opportunity to learn, in that sense
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I've been very fortunate to fail in so many new and exciting ways and this conversation
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was no different.
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I've learned about something called Radio Frequency Interference, RFI, look it up.
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Apparently music and conversations from local radio stations can bleed into the audio that
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you're recording in such a way that almost completely ruins that audio.
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It's an exceptionally difficult sound source to remove.
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So, I've gotten the opportunity to learn how to avoid RFI in the future during recording
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sessions.
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I've also gotten the opportunity to learn how to use Adobe Audition and iZotope RX6
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to do some audio repair.
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Of course, this is an exceptionally difficult noise to remove.
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I am an engineer, I'm not an audio engineer, neither is anybody else in our group, but
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we did our best.
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Nevertheless, I thank you for your patience and I hope you're still able to enjoy this
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conversation.
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Do you think there's intelligent life out there in the universe?
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Let's open up with an easy question.
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I have a minority view here actually.
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When I give public lectures, I often ask for show of hands who thinks there's intelligent
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life out there somewhere else and almost everyone puts their hands up and when I ask why, they'll
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be like, oh, there's so many galaxies out there, there's got to be.
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But I'm a number nerd, right?
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So when you look more carefully at it, it's not so clear at all.
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When we talk about our universe, first of all, we don't mean all of space.
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We actually mean, I don't know, you can throw me the universe if you want, it's behind you
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there.
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We simply mean the spherical region of space from which light has had time to reach us
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so far during the 13.8 billion years since our big bang.
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There's more space here, but this is what we call a universe because that's all we have
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access to.
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So is there intelligent life here that's gotten to the point of building telescopes and computers?
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My guess is no, actually, the probability of it happening on any given planet is some
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number we don't know what it is.
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And what we do know is that the number can't be super high because there's over a billion
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Earth like planets in the Milky Way galaxy alone, many of which are billions of years
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older than Earth, and aside from some UFO believers, you know, there isn't much evidence
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that any super advanced civilization has come here at all.
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And so that's the famous Fermi paradox, right?
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And then if you work the numbers, what you find is that if you have no clue what the
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probability is of getting life on a given planet, so it could be 10 to the minus 10,
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10 to the minus 20, or 10 to the minus two, or any power of 10 is sort of equally likely
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if you want to be really open minded, that translates into it being equally likely that
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our nearest neighbor is 10 to the 16 meters away, 10 to the 17 meters away, 10 to the
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18.
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Now, by the time you get much less than 10 to the 16 already, we pretty much know there
04:42.860 --> 04:46.220
is nothing else that's close.
04:46.220 --> 04:49.740
And when you get because it would have discovered us, they, yeah, they would have discovered
04:49.740 --> 04:53.540
us longer or if they're really close, we would have probably noted some engineering projects
04:53.540 --> 04:54.540
that they're doing.
04:54.540 --> 05:00.140
And if it's beyond 10 to the 26 meters, that's already outside of here.
05:00.140 --> 05:06.340
So my guess is actually that there are, we are the only life in here that's gotten the
05:06.340 --> 05:14.020
point of building advanced tech, which I think is very, puts a lot of responsibility on our
05:14.020 --> 05:18.140
shoulders, not screw up, you know, I think people who take for granted that it's okay
05:18.140 --> 05:23.300
for us to screw up, have an accidental nuclear war or go extinct somehow because there's
05:23.300 --> 05:27.460
a sort of Star Trek like situation out there where some other life forms are going to come
05:27.460 --> 05:30.380
and bail us out and it doesn't matter so much.
05:30.380 --> 05:33.380
I think they're leveling us into a false sense of security.
05:33.380 --> 05:37.540
I think it's much more prudent to say, let's be really grateful for this amazing opportunity
05:37.540 --> 05:44.180
we've had and make the best of it just in case it is down to us.
05:44.180 --> 05:50.220
So from a physics perspective, do you think intelligent life, so it's unique from a sort
05:50.220 --> 05:55.860
of statistical view of the size of the universe, but from the basic matter of the universe,
05:55.860 --> 06:00.100
how difficult is it for intelligent life to come about with the kind of advanced tech
06:00.100 --> 06:06.300
building life is implied in your statement that it's really difficult to create something
06:06.300 --> 06:07.620
like a human species?
06:07.620 --> 06:14.740
Well, I think what we know is that going from no life to having life that can do our level
06:14.740 --> 06:21.140
of tech, there's some sort of to going beyond that than actually settling our whole universe
06:21.140 --> 06:22.300
with life.
06:22.300 --> 06:30.700
There's some road major roadblock there, which is some great filter as I just sometimes called
06:30.700 --> 06:37.180
which, which tough to get through, it's either that that roadblock is either behind us or
06:37.180 --> 06:38.620
in front of us.
06:38.620 --> 06:40.980
I'm hoping very much that it's behind us.
06:40.980 --> 06:46.900
I'm super excited every time we get a new report from NASA saying they failed to find
06:46.900 --> 06:53.260
any life on Mars, because that suggests that the hard part, maybe it was getting the first
06:53.260 --> 06:59.540
ribosome or some some very low level kind of stepping stone.
06:59.540 --> 07:03.620
So they were home free because if that's true, then the future is really only limited by
07:03.620 --> 07:04.620
our own imagination.
07:04.620 --> 07:11.460
It would be much suckier if it turns out that this level of life is kind of a diamond dozen,
07:11.460 --> 07:12.780
but maybe there's some other problem.
07:12.780 --> 07:17.220
Like as soon as a civilization gets advanced technology within 100 years, they get into
07:17.220 --> 07:21.740
some stupid fight with themselves and poof, you know, that would be a bummer.
07:21.740 --> 07:22.740
Yeah.
07:22.740 --> 07:28.980
So you've explored the mysteries of the universe, the cosmological universe, the one that's
07:28.980 --> 07:36.340
between us today, I think you've also begun to explore the other universe, which is sort
07:36.340 --> 07:42.860
of the mystery, the mysterious universe of the mind of intelligence, of intelligent life.
07:42.860 --> 07:48.260
So is there a common thread between your interests or the way you think about space and intelligence?
07:48.260 --> 07:49.260
Oh, yeah.
07:49.260 --> 07:57.700
When I was a teenager, I was already very fascinated by the biggest questions and I felt that the
07:57.700 --> 08:03.660
two biggest mysteries of all in science were our universe out there and our universe in
08:03.660 --> 08:04.660
here.
08:04.660 --> 08:05.660
Yeah.
08:05.660 --> 08:11.260
So it's quite natural after having spent a quarter of a century on my career thinking
08:11.260 --> 08:12.260
a lot about this one.
08:12.260 --> 08:15.980
And now I'm indulging in the luxury of doing research on this one.
08:15.980 --> 08:17.660
It's just so cool.
08:17.660 --> 08:25.260
I feel the time is ripe now for you transparently deepening our understanding of this.
08:25.260 --> 08:26.420
Just start exploring this one.
08:26.420 --> 08:32.500
Yeah, because I think a lot of people view intelligence as something mysterious that
08:32.500 --> 08:38.340
can only exist in biological organisms like us and therefore dismiss all talk about artificial
08:38.340 --> 08:41.260
general intelligence is science fiction.
08:41.260 --> 08:47.260
But from my perspective as a physicist, I am a blob of quirks and electrons moving around
08:47.260 --> 08:50.180
in a certain pattern and processing information in certain ways.
08:50.180 --> 08:53.580
And this is also a blob of quirks and electrons.
08:53.580 --> 08:57.860
I'm not smarter than the water bottle because I'm made of different kind of quirks.
08:57.860 --> 09:02.220
I'm made of up quirks and down quirks exact same kind as this.
09:02.220 --> 09:07.020
It's a there's no secret sauce, I think in me, it's it's all about the pattern of the
09:07.020 --> 09:08.820
information processing.
09:08.820 --> 09:16.020
And this means that there's no law of physics saying that we can't create technology, which
09:16.020 --> 09:21.740
can help us by being incredibly intelligent and help us crack mysteries that we couldn't.
09:21.740 --> 09:25.580
In other words, I think we've really only seen the tip of the intelligence iceberg so
09:25.580 --> 09:26.580
far.
09:26.580 --> 09:27.580
Yeah.
09:27.580 --> 09:34.380
So the perceptronium, yeah, so you coined this amazing term, it's a hypothetical state
09:34.380 --> 09:39.420
of matter, sort of thinking from a physics perspective, what is the kind of matter that
09:39.420 --> 09:44.500
can help as you're saying, subjective experience emerge, consciousness emerge.
09:44.500 --> 09:50.140
So how do you think about consciousness from this physics perspective?
09:50.140 --> 09:51.980
Very good question.
09:51.980 --> 10:03.060
So, again, I think many people have underestimated our ability to make progress on this by convincing
10:03.060 --> 10:08.500
themselves it's hopeless because somehow we're missing some ingredient that we need.
10:08.500 --> 10:13.020
There's some new consciousness particle or whatever.
10:13.020 --> 10:19.660
I happen to think that we're not missing anything and that it's not the interesting thing about
10:19.660 --> 10:25.900
consciousness that gives us this amazing subjective experience of colors and sounds and emotions
10:25.900 --> 10:32.300
and so on is rather something at the higher level about the patterns of information processing.
10:32.300 --> 10:38.300
And that's why I like to think about this idea of perceptronium.
10:38.300 --> 10:44.220
What does it mean for an arbitrary physical system to be conscious in terms of what its
10:44.220 --> 10:47.100
particles are doing or its information is doing?
10:47.100 --> 10:52.300
I hate carbon chauvinism, this attitude, you have to be made of carbon atoms to be smart
10:52.300 --> 10:53.300
or conscious.
10:53.300 --> 10:58.180
So something about the information processing that this kind of matter performs.
10:58.180 --> 11:02.700
Yeah, and you can see I have my favorite equations here describing various fundamental
11:02.700 --> 11:04.660
aspects of the world.
11:04.660 --> 11:09.620
I think one day, maybe someone who's watching this will come up with the equations that
11:09.620 --> 11:12.140
information processing has to satisfy to be conscious.
11:12.140 --> 11:19.580
And I'm quite convinced there is big discovery to be made there because let's face it, we
11:19.580 --> 11:25.900
know that some information processing is conscious because we are conscious.
11:25.900 --> 11:28.980
But we also know that a lot of information processing is not conscious.
11:28.980 --> 11:32.980
Most of the information processing happening in your brain right now is not conscious.
11:32.980 --> 11:38.380
There are like 10 megabytes per second coming in even just through your visual system.
11:38.380 --> 11:42.940
You're not conscious about your heartbeat regulation or most things.
11:42.940 --> 11:47.300
Even if I just ask you to read what it says here, you look at it and then, oh, now you
11:47.300 --> 11:48.300
know what it said.
11:48.300 --> 11:51.820
But you're not aware of how the computation actually happened.
11:51.820 --> 11:57.020
Your consciousness is like the CEO that got an email at the end with the final answer.
11:57.020 --> 12:01.140
So what is it that makes a difference?
12:01.140 --> 12:06.620
I think that's both a great science mystery, we're actually studying it a little bit in
12:06.620 --> 12:12.260
my lab here at MIT, but I also think it's a really urgent question to answer.
12:12.260 --> 12:16.460
For starters, I mean, if you're an emergency room doctor and you have an unresponsive patient
12:16.460 --> 12:24.180
coming in, wouldn't it be great if in addition to having a CT scanner, you had a conscious
12:24.180 --> 12:30.780
scanner that could figure out whether this person is actually having locked in syndrome
12:30.780 --> 12:33.580
or is actually comatose.
12:33.580 --> 12:40.740
And in the future, imagine if we build robots or the machine that we can have really good
12:40.740 --> 12:45.100
conversations with, I think it's very likely to happen, right?
12:45.100 --> 12:50.020
Wouldn't you want to know if your home helper robot is actually experiencing anything or
12:50.020 --> 12:52.980
just like a zombie?
12:52.980 --> 12:53.980
Would you prefer it?
12:53.980 --> 12:54.980
What would you prefer?
12:54.980 --> 12:57.820
Would you prefer that it's actually unconscious so that you don't have to feel guilty about
12:57.820 --> 12:59.980
switching it off or giving boring chores?
12:59.980 --> 13:02.380
What would you prefer?
13:02.380 --> 13:09.780
Well, certainly we would prefer, I would prefer the appearance of consciousness, but the question
13:09.780 --> 13:15.300
is whether the appearance of consciousness is different than consciousness itself.
13:15.300 --> 13:21.420
And sort of ask that as a question, do you think we need to understand what consciousness
13:21.420 --> 13:28.420
is, solve the hard problem of consciousness in order to build something like an AGI system?
13:28.420 --> 13:29.420
No.
13:29.420 --> 13:31.140
I don't think that.
13:31.140 --> 13:36.220
I think we will probably be able to build things even if we don't answer that question.
13:36.220 --> 13:41.100
But if we want to make sure that what happens is a good thing, we better solve it first.
13:41.100 --> 13:47.220
So it's a wonderful controversy you're raising there, where you have basically three points
13:47.220 --> 13:50.220
of view about the hard problem.
13:50.220 --> 13:55.060
There are two different points of view that both conclude that the hard problem of consciousness
13:55.060 --> 13:56.060
is BS.
13:56.060 --> 14:01.100
On one hand, you have some people like Daniel Dennett who say that consciousness is just
14:01.100 --> 14:05.140
BS because consciousness is the same thing as intelligence.
14:05.140 --> 14:06.580
There's no difference.
14:06.580 --> 14:13.620
So anything which acts conscious is conscious, just like we are.
14:13.620 --> 14:18.820
And then there are also a lot of people, including many top AI researchers I know, who say, oh,
14:18.820 --> 14:22.820
consciousness is just bullshit because of course machines can never be conscious.
14:22.820 --> 14:28.020
They're always going to skiddy zombies, never have to feel guilty about how you treat them.
14:28.020 --> 14:35.380
And then there's a third group of people, including Giulio Tononi, for example, and another, and
14:35.380 --> 14:40.020
Gustav Koch and a number of others, I would put myself on this middle camp who say that
14:40.020 --> 14:44.260
actually some information processing is conscious and some is not.
14:44.260 --> 14:49.380
So let's find the equation which can be used to determine which it is.
14:49.380 --> 14:53.980
And I think we've just been a little bit lazy kind of running away from this problem for
14:53.980 --> 14:55.100
a long time.
14:55.100 --> 15:01.940
It's been almost taboo to even mention the C word in a lot of circles because, but we
15:01.940 --> 15:03.700
should stop making excuses.
15:03.700 --> 15:10.940
This is a science question and there are ways we can even test any theory that makes predictions
15:10.940 --> 15:12.140
for this.
15:12.140 --> 15:16.060
And coming back to this helper robot, I mean, so you said you would want your helper robot
15:16.060 --> 15:21.340
to certainly act conscious and treat you, like have conversations with you and stuff.
15:21.340 --> 15:24.860
But wouldn't you, would you feel a little bit creeped out if you realized that it was
15:24.860 --> 15:31.700
just a glossed up tape recorder, you know, that was just zombie and it's a faking emotion?
15:31.700 --> 15:37.220
Would you prefer that it actually had an experience or would you prefer that it's actually not
15:37.220 --> 15:42.300
experiencing anything so you feel, you don't have to feel guilty about what you do to it?
15:42.300 --> 15:46.580
It's such a difficult question because, you know, it's like when you're in a relationship
15:46.580 --> 15:49.860
and you say, well, I love you and the other person said I love you back.
15:49.860 --> 15:53.860
It's like asking, well, do they really love you back or are they just saying they love
15:53.860 --> 15:54.860
you back?
15:54.860 --> 15:59.620
Don't you really want them to actually love you?
15:59.620 --> 16:08.100
It's hard to, it's hard to really know the difference between everything seeming like
16:08.100 --> 16:14.820
there's consciousness present, there's intelligence present, there's affection, passion, love,
16:14.820 --> 16:16.180
and it actually being there.
16:16.180 --> 16:17.180
I'm not sure.
16:17.180 --> 16:18.180
Do you have...
16:18.180 --> 16:19.180
Can I ask you a question about this?
16:19.180 --> 16:20.180
Yes.
16:20.180 --> 16:21.180
To make it a bit more pointed.
16:21.180 --> 16:23.140
So Mass General Hospital is right across the river, right?
16:23.140 --> 16:29.180
Suppose you're going in for a medical procedure and they're like, you know, for anesthesia
16:29.180 --> 16:32.180
what we're going to do is we're going to give you muscle relaxance so you won't be able
16:32.180 --> 16:36.140
to move and you're going to feel excruciating pain during the whole surgery but you won't
16:36.140 --> 16:37.660
be able to do anything about it.
16:37.660 --> 16:42.020
But then we're going to give you this drug that erases your memory of it.
16:42.020 --> 16:45.420
Would you be cool about that?
16:45.420 --> 16:51.100
What's the difference that you're conscious about it or not if there's no behavioral change,
16:51.100 --> 16:52.100
right?
16:52.100 --> 16:53.100
Right.
16:53.100 --> 16:55.220
And that's a really clear way to put it.
16:55.220 --> 17:01.100
Yeah, it feels like in that sense, experiencing it is a valuable quality.
17:01.100 --> 17:09.140
So actually being able to have subjective experiences, at least in that case, is valuable.
17:09.140 --> 17:14.060
And I think we humans have a little bit of a bad track record also of making these self
17:14.060 --> 17:17.940
serving arguments that other entities aren't conscious.
17:17.940 --> 17:20.700
You know, people often say, oh, these animals can't feel pain.
17:20.700 --> 17:21.700
Right.
17:21.700 --> 17:25.580
It's okay to boil lobsters because we asked them if it hurt and they didn't say anything.
17:25.580 --> 17:29.180
And now there was just a paper out saying lobsters did do feel pain when you boil them
17:29.180 --> 17:31.180
and they're banning it in Switzerland.
17:31.180 --> 17:36.300
And we did this with slaves too often and said, oh, they don't mind.
17:36.300 --> 17:41.180
They don't maybe aren't conscious or women don't have souls or whatever.
17:41.180 --> 17:46.540
So I'm a little bit nervous when I hear people just take as an axiom that machines can't
17:46.540 --> 17:48.900
have experience ever.
17:48.900 --> 17:52.500
I think this is just a really fascinating science question is what it is.
17:52.500 --> 17:57.420
Let's research it and try to figure out what it is that makes the difference between unconscious
17:57.420 --> 18:01.220
intelligent behavior and conscious intelligent behavior.
18:01.220 --> 18:07.140
So in terms of, so if you think of a Boston Dynamics human or robot being sort of with
18:07.140 --> 18:13.420
a broom being pushed around, it starts pushing on a consciousness question.
18:13.420 --> 18:20.060
So let me ask, do you think an AGI system, like a few neuroscientists believe needs to
18:20.060 --> 18:25.860
have a physical embodiment, needs to have a body or something like a body?
18:25.860 --> 18:28.340
No, I don't think so.
18:28.340 --> 18:30.620
You mean to have a conscious experience?
18:30.620 --> 18:33.140
To have consciousness.
18:33.140 --> 18:37.860
I do think it helps a lot to have a physical embodiment to learn the kind of things about
18:37.860 --> 18:42.820
the world that are important to us humans for sure.
18:42.820 --> 18:47.460
But I don't think the physical embodiment is necessary after you've learned it.
18:47.460 --> 18:48.860
Just have the experience.
18:48.860 --> 18:51.500
Think about it when you're dreaming, right?
18:51.500 --> 18:55.500
Your eyes are closed, you're not getting any sensory input, you're not behaving or moving
18:55.500 --> 18:59.780
in any way, but there's still an experience there, right?
18:59.780 --> 19:03.220
And so clearly the experience that you have when you see something cool in your dreams
19:03.220 --> 19:08.660
isn't coming from your eyes, it's just the information processing itself in your brain,
19:08.660 --> 19:11.100
which is that experience, right?
19:11.100 --> 19:16.660
But if I put it another way, I'll say because it comes from neuroscience is the reason you
19:16.660 --> 19:24.620
want to have a body and a physical, something like a physical system is because you want
19:24.620 --> 19:27.100
to be able to preserve something.
19:27.100 --> 19:35.740
In order to have a self, you could argue, you'd need to have some kind of embodiment
19:35.740 --> 19:38.180
of self to want to preserve.
19:38.180 --> 19:45.940
Well, now we're getting a little bit anthropomorphic, anthropomorphizing things, maybe talking about
19:45.940 --> 19:47.820
self preservation instincts.
19:47.820 --> 19:50.700
We are evolved organisms, right?
19:50.700 --> 19:57.020
So Darwinian evolution endowed us and other evolved organisms with self preservation instinct
19:57.020 --> 20:03.100
because those that didn't have those self preservation genes got cleaned out of the gene pool.
20:03.100 --> 20:09.180
But if you build an artificial general intelligence, the mind space that you can design is much,
20:09.180 --> 20:14.500
much larger than just a specific subset of minds that can evolve that have.
20:14.500 --> 20:19.260
So an AGI mind doesn't necessarily have to have any self preservation instinct.
20:19.260 --> 20:24.100
It also doesn't necessarily have to be so individualistic as us.
20:24.100 --> 20:28.140
Like imagine if you could just, first of all, we're also very afraid of death, you know,
20:28.140 --> 20:32.180
as opposed to you could back yourself up every five minutes and then your airplane is about
20:32.180 --> 20:33.180
to crash.
20:33.180 --> 20:37.340
You're like, shucks, I'm just, I'm going to lose the last five minutes of experiences
20:37.340 --> 20:41.580
since my last cloud backup, dang, you know, it's not as big a deal.
20:41.580 --> 20:47.380
Or if we could just copy experiences between our minds easily, like which we could easily
20:47.380 --> 20:50.620
do if we were silicon based, right?
20:50.620 --> 20:55.860
Then maybe we would feel a little bit more like a hive mind, actually, that maybe it's
20:55.860 --> 21:01.220
the, so, so there's, so I don't think we should take for granted at all that AGI will have
21:01.220 --> 21:06.820
to have any of those sort of competitive as alpha male instincts.
21:06.820 --> 21:07.820
Right.
21:07.820 --> 21:12.820
On the other hand, you know, this is really interesting because I think some people go
21:12.820 --> 21:17.900
too far and say, of course, we don't have to have any concerns either that advanced
21:17.900 --> 21:22.700
AI will have those instincts because we can build anything we want.
21:22.700 --> 21:27.420
That there's, there's a very nice set of arguments going back to Steve Omohandro and
21:27.420 --> 21:32.900
Nick Bostrom and others just pointing out that when we build machines, we normally build
21:32.900 --> 21:37.700
them with some kind of goal, you know, win this chess game, drive this car safely or
21:37.700 --> 21:38.700
whatever.
21:38.700 --> 21:42.540
And as soon as you put in a goal into machine, especially if it's kind of open ended goal
21:42.540 --> 21:48.460
and the machine is very intelligent, it'll break that down into a bunch of sub goals.
21:48.460 --> 21:53.500
And one of those goals will almost always be self preservation because if it breaks
21:53.500 --> 21:56.140
or dies in the process, it's not going to accomplish the goal, right?
21:56.140 --> 21:59.540
Like, suppose you just build a little, you have a little robot and you tell it to go
21:59.540 --> 22:05.460
down the store market here and, and get you some food, make you cook your Italian dinner,
22:05.460 --> 22:09.540
you know, and then someone mugs it and tries to break it on the way.
22:09.540 --> 22:15.380
That robot has an incentive to not get destroyed and defend itself for a runaway because otherwise
22:15.380 --> 22:17.780
it's going to fail and cooking your dinner.
22:17.780 --> 22:22.940
It's not afraid of death, but it really wants to complete the dinner cooking goal.
22:22.940 --> 22:24.780
So it will have a self preservation instinct.
22:24.780 --> 22:26.820
It will continue being a functional agent.
22:26.820 --> 22:27.820
Yeah.
22:27.820 --> 22:35.860
And, and, and similarly, if you give any kind of more ambitious goal to an AGI, it's very
22:35.860 --> 22:39.940
likely they want to acquire more resources so it can do that better.
22:39.940 --> 22:44.500
And it's exactly from those sort of sub goals that we might not have intended that some
22:44.500 --> 22:50.740
of the concerns about AGI safety come, you give it some goal that seems completely harmless.
22:50.740 --> 22:55.540
And then before you realize it, it's also trying to do these other things which you
22:55.540 --> 22:59.220
didn't want it to do and it's maybe smarter than us.
22:59.220 --> 23:08.220
So, so, and let me pause just because I am in a very kind of human centric way, see fear
23:08.220 --> 23:11.900
of death as a valuable motivator.
23:11.900 --> 23:17.220
So you don't think you think that's an artifact of evolution.
23:17.220 --> 23:21.980
So that's the kind of mind space evolution created that we're sort of almost obsessed
23:21.980 --> 23:22.980
about self preservation.
23:22.980 --> 23:23.980
Yeah.
23:23.980 --> 23:29.500
Some kind of genetic well, you don't think that's necessary to be afraid of death.
23:29.500 --> 23:34.980
So not just a kind of sub goal of self preservation just so you can keep doing the thing, but
23:34.980 --> 23:42.980
more fundamentally sort of have the finite thing like this ends for you at some point.
23:42.980 --> 23:43.980
Interesting.
23:43.980 --> 23:47.500
Do I think it's necessary for what precisely?
23:47.500 --> 23:51.020
For intelligence, but also for consciousness.
23:51.020 --> 23:58.220
So for those for both, do you think really like a finite death and the fear of it is
23:58.220 --> 24:01.020
important?
24:01.020 --> 24:06.980
So before I can answer, before we can agree on whether it's necessary for intelligence
24:06.980 --> 24:10.660
or for consciousness, we should be clear on how we define those two words because a lot
24:10.660 --> 24:13.340
are really smart people define them in very different ways.
24:13.340 --> 24:18.500
I was in this on this panel with AI experts and they couldn't, they couldn't agree on
24:18.500 --> 24:20.180
how to define intelligence even.
24:20.180 --> 24:24.860
So I define intelligence simply as the ability to accomplish complex goals.
24:24.860 --> 24:30.740
I like your broad definition because again, I don't want to be a carbon chauvinist.
24:30.740 --> 24:36.580
And in that case, no, certainly it doesn't require fear of death.
24:36.580 --> 24:40.100
I would say AlphaGo AlphaZero is quite intelligent.
24:40.100 --> 24:44.260
I don't think AlphaZero has any fear of being turned off because it doesn't understand the
24:44.260 --> 24:52.180
concept of even and similarly consciousness, I mean, you can certainly imagine a very simple
24:52.180 --> 24:57.660
kind of experience if certain plants have any kind of experience, I don't think they're
24:57.660 --> 25:00.940
very afraid of dying or there's nothing they can do about it anyway much.
25:00.940 --> 25:08.420
So there wasn't that much value and but more seriously, I think if you ask not just about
25:08.420 --> 25:15.460
being conscious, but maybe having what you would, we might call an exciting life for
25:15.460 --> 25:23.300
you for your passion and really appreciate the things, maybe there, somehow, maybe there
25:23.300 --> 25:29.180
perhaps it does help having a backdrop that, hey, it's finite, you know, let's make the
25:29.180 --> 25:31.380
most of this, let's live to the fullest.
25:31.380 --> 25:36.220
So if you knew you were going to just live forever, do you think you would change your
25:36.220 --> 25:40.500
career? Yeah, I mean, in some perspective, it would
25:40.500 --> 25:44.020
be an incredibly boring life living forever.
25:44.020 --> 25:49.740
So in the sort of loose, subjective terms that you said of something exciting and something
25:49.740 --> 25:55.180
in this that other humans would understand, I think, is yeah, it seems that the finiteness
25:55.180 --> 25:56.660
of it is important.
25:56.660 --> 26:02.420
Well, the good news I have for you then is based on what we understand about cosmology,
26:02.420 --> 26:10.460
things in our universe is probably finite, although big crunch or big or big, what's
26:10.460 --> 26:11.460
the extent of the infinite?
26:11.460 --> 26:16.820
Yeah, we could have a big chill or a big crunch or a big rip or death, the big snap or death
26:16.820 --> 26:17.820
bubbles.
26:17.820 --> 26:20.140
All of them are more than a billion years away.
26:20.140 --> 26:29.500
So we should we certainly have vastly more time than our ancestors thought, but still
26:29.500 --> 26:35.580
pretty hard to squeeze in an infinite number of compute cycles, even though there are some
26:35.580 --> 26:37.820
loopholes that just might be possible.
26:37.820 --> 26:44.620
But I think, you know, some people like to say that you should live as if you're about
26:44.620 --> 26:48.100
to you're going to die in five years or so, and that's sort of optimal.
26:48.100 --> 26:54.740
Maybe it's a good as some we should build our civilization as if it's all finite to
26:54.740 --> 26:55.740
be on the safe side.
26:55.740 --> 27:02.020
Right, exactly. So you mentioned in defining intelligence as the ability to solve complex
27:02.020 --> 27:03.020
goals.
27:03.020 --> 27:04.940
So where would you draw a line?
27:04.940 --> 27:10.940
How would you try to define human level intelligence and super human level intelligence?
27:10.940 --> 27:13.380
Where is consciousness part of that definition?
27:13.380 --> 27:16.860
No, consciousness does not come into this definition.
27:16.860 --> 27:21.580
So so I think of intelligence as it's a spectrum, but there are very many different kinds of
27:21.580 --> 27:22.580
goals you can have.
27:22.580 --> 27:27.140
You have a goal to be a good chess player, a good goal player, a good car driver, a good
27:27.140 --> 27:31.260
investor, good poet, etc.
27:31.260 --> 27:35.740
So intelligence that bind by its very nature, isn't something you can measure, but it's
27:35.740 --> 27:39.900
one number, some overall goodness, no, no, there are some people who are more better
27:39.900 --> 27:42.540
at this, some people are better at that.
27:42.540 --> 27:48.380
Right now we have machines that are much better than us at some very narrow tasks like multiplying
27:48.380 --> 27:57.620
large numbers fast, memorizing large databases, playing chess, playing go, soon driving cars.
27:57.620 --> 28:03.340
But there's still no machine that can match a human child in general intelligence.
28:03.340 --> 28:08.420
But artificial general intelligence, AGI, the name of your course, of course, that
28:08.420 --> 28:16.460
is by its very definition, the quest to build a machine that can do everything as well as
28:16.460 --> 28:17.460
we can.
28:17.460 --> 28:24.060
Up to the old Holy Grail of AI from back to its inception in the 60s.
28:24.060 --> 28:27.500
If that ever happens, of course, I think it's going to be the biggest transition in the
28:27.500 --> 28:33.860
history of life on Earth, but it doesn't necessarily have to wait the big impact until machines
28:33.860 --> 28:35.780
are better than us at knitting.
28:35.780 --> 28:41.940
The really big change doesn't come exactly at the moment they're better than us at everything.
28:41.940 --> 28:45.820
The really big change comes, first, their big change is when they start becoming better
28:45.820 --> 28:51.140
at us at doing most of the jobs that we do, because that takes away much of the demand
28:51.140 --> 28:53.380
for human labor.
28:53.380 --> 29:01.300
And then the really warping change comes when they become better than us at AI research.
29:01.300 --> 29:07.900
Because right now, the time scale of AI research is limited by the human research and development
29:07.900 --> 29:14.100
cycle of years, typically, along the take from one release of some software or iPhone
29:14.100 --> 29:16.300
or whatever to the next.
29:16.300 --> 29:25.820
But once Google can replace 40,000 engineers by 40,000 equivalent pieces of software or
29:25.820 --> 29:29.660
whatever, then there's no reason that has to be years.
29:29.660 --> 29:32.020
It can be, in principle, much faster.
29:32.020 --> 29:38.900
And the time scale of future progress in AI and all of science and technology will be
29:38.900 --> 29:40.980
driven by machines, not humans.
29:40.980 --> 29:49.660
So it's this simple point, which gives right this incredibly fun controversy about whether
29:49.660 --> 29:54.540
there can be intelligence explosion, so called singularity, as Werner Winge called it.
29:54.540 --> 30:00.060
The idea, as articulated by I.J. Good, is obviously way back fifties, but you can see
30:00.060 --> 30:07.220
Alan Turing and others thought about it even earlier.
30:07.220 --> 30:12.980
You asked me what exactly what I define human level intelligence.
30:12.980 --> 30:18.540
So the glib answer is just to say something which is better than us at all cognitive tasks
30:18.540 --> 30:21.980
or better than any human at all cognitive tasks.
30:21.980 --> 30:25.900
But the really interesting bar, I think, goes a little bit lower than that, actually.
30:25.900 --> 30:33.260
It's when they're better than us at AI programming and general learning so that they can, if
30:33.260 --> 30:37.340
they want to, get better than us at anything by just starting out.
30:37.340 --> 30:43.100
So there better is a key word and better is towards this kind of spectrum of the complexity
30:43.100 --> 30:45.740
of goals it's able to accomplish.
30:45.740 --> 30:53.060
So another way to, and that's certainly a very clear definition of human love.
30:53.060 --> 30:56.300
So there's, it's almost like a sea that's rising, you can do more and more and more
30:56.300 --> 30:57.300
things.
30:57.300 --> 30:59.900
It's actually a graphic that you show, it's really nice way to put it.
30:59.900 --> 31:04.340
So there's some peaks and there's an ocean level elevating and you solve more and more
31:04.340 --> 31:05.340
problems.
31:05.340 --> 31:09.220
But, you know, just kind of to take a pause and we took a bunch of questions and a lot
31:09.220 --> 31:14.380
of social networks and a bunch of people asked a sort of a slightly different direction
31:14.380 --> 31:22.260
on creativity and on things that perhaps aren't a peak.
31:22.260 --> 31:28.620
It's, you know, human beings are flawed and perhaps better means having being having contradiction
31:28.620 --> 31:30.260
being flawed in some way.
31:30.260 --> 31:34.980
So let me sort of, yeah, start and start easy, first of all.
31:34.980 --> 31:36.620
So you have a lot of cool equations.
31:36.620 --> 31:39.660
Let me ask, what's your favorite equation, first of all?
31:39.660 --> 31:43.580
I know they're all like your children, but which one is that?
31:43.580 --> 31:49.060
This is the Shreddinger equation, it's the master key of quantum mechanics of the micro
31:49.060 --> 31:50.060
world.
31:50.060 --> 31:55.340
So this equation can take everything to do with atoms and all the fuels and all the
31:55.340 --> 32:04.020
way up to… Yeah, so, okay, so quantum mechanics is certainly a beautiful mysterious formulation
32:04.020 --> 32:05.020
of our world.
32:05.020 --> 32:10.740
So I'd like to sort of ask you, just as an example, it perhaps doesn't have the same
32:10.740 --> 32:17.420
beauty as physics does, but in mathematics abstract, the Andrew Wiles who proved the
32:17.420 --> 32:19.460
Fermat's last theory.
32:19.460 --> 32:24.180
So he just saw this recently and it kind of caught my eye a little bit.
32:24.180 --> 32:27.980
This is 358 years after it was conjectured.
32:27.980 --> 32:32.940
So this very simple formulation, everybody tried to prove it, everybody failed.
32:32.940 --> 32:38.820
And so here's this guy comes along and eventually proves it and then fails to prove it and then
32:38.820 --> 32:41.340
proves it again in 94.
32:41.340 --> 32:45.940
And he said like the moment when everything connected into place, in an interview he said
32:45.940 --> 32:47.980
it was so indescribably beautiful.
32:47.980 --> 32:53.580
That moment when you finally realize the connecting piece of two conjectures, he said it was so
32:53.580 --> 32:56.940
indescribably beautiful, it was so simple and so elegant.
32:56.940 --> 33:01.540
I couldn't understand how I'd missed it and I just stared at it in disbelief for 20
33:01.540 --> 33:02.540
minutes.
33:02.540 --> 33:08.100
Then during the day I walked around the department and I keep coming back to my desk looking
33:08.100 --> 33:09.820
to see if it was still there.
33:09.820 --> 33:10.820
It was still there.
33:10.820 --> 33:11.820
I couldn't contain myself.
33:11.820 --> 33:12.820
I was so excited.
33:12.820 --> 33:16.180
It was the most important moment of my working life.
33:16.180 --> 33:18.940
Nothing I ever do again will mean as much.
33:18.940 --> 33:24.860
So that particular moment and it kind of made me think of what would it take?
33:24.860 --> 33:28.380
And I think we have all been there at small levels.
33:28.380 --> 33:34.820
Maybe let me ask, have you had a moment like that in your life where you just had an idea
33:34.820 --> 33:40.060
it's like, wow, yes.
33:40.060 --> 33:44.700
I wouldn't mention myself in the same breath as Andrew Wiles, but I certainly had a number
33:44.700 --> 33:54.820
of aha moments when I realized something very cool about physics just completely made
33:54.820 --> 33:55.820
my head explode.
33:55.820 --> 33:59.580
In fact, some of my favorite discoveries I made later, I later realized that they had
33:59.580 --> 34:03.340
been discovered earlier by someone who's sometimes got quite famous for it.
34:03.340 --> 34:07.460
So there's too late for me to even publish it, but that doesn't diminish in any way.
34:07.460 --> 34:12.340
The emotional experience you have when you realize it like, wow.
34:12.340 --> 34:17.460
So what would it take in that moment, that wow, that was yours in that moment?
34:17.460 --> 34:23.420
So what do you think it takes for an intelligent system, an AGI system, an AI system to have
34:23.420 --> 34:24.980
a moment like that?
34:24.980 --> 34:29.420
It's a tricky question because there are actually two parts to it, right?
34:29.420 --> 34:37.260
One of them is, can it accomplish that proof, can it prove that you can never write A to
34:37.260 --> 34:46.420
the N plus B to the N equals 3 to the N for all integers, etc., etc., when N is bigger
34:46.420 --> 34:49.420
than 2.
34:49.420 --> 34:51.580
That's simply the question about intelligence.
34:51.580 --> 34:54.420
Can you build machines that are that intelligent?
34:54.420 --> 34:59.860
And I think by the time we get a machine that can independently come up with that level
34:59.860 --> 35:03.460
of proofs, probably quite close to AGI.
35:03.460 --> 35:07.860
But the second question is a question about consciousness.
35:07.860 --> 35:13.060
When will we, how likely is it that such a machine would actually have any experience
35:13.060 --> 35:16.500
at all as opposed to just being like a zombie?
35:16.500 --> 35:22.940
And would we expect it to have some sort of emotional response to this or anything at
35:22.940 --> 35:31.140
all akin to human emotion where when it accomplishes its machine goal, it views it as something
35:31.140 --> 35:39.260
very positive and sublime and deeply meaningful.
35:39.260 --> 35:45.260
I would certainly hope that if in the future we do create machines that are our peers or
35:45.260 --> 35:53.700
even our descendants, I would certainly hope that they do have this sort of sublime appreciation
35:53.700 --> 36:06.020
of life in a way, my absolutely worst nightmare would be that at some point in the future,
36:06.020 --> 36:10.620
the distant future, maybe our cosmos is teeming with all this post biological life, doing
36:10.620 --> 36:13.180
all the seemingly cool stuff.
36:13.180 --> 36:20.660
And maybe the last humans by the time our species eventually fizzles out will be like,
36:20.660 --> 36:26.140
well, that's okay, because we're so proud of our descendants here and look, my worst
36:26.140 --> 36:30.580
nightmare is that we haven't solved the consciousness problem.
36:30.580 --> 36:34.100
And we haven't realized that these are all the zombies, they're not aware of anything
36:34.100 --> 36:37.900
anymore than a tape recorder, as in any kind of experience.
36:37.900 --> 36:41.660
So the whole thing has just become a play for empty benches.
36:41.660 --> 36:44.700
That would be like the ultimate zombie apocalypse to me.
36:44.700 --> 36:52.900
So I would much rather, in that case, that we have these beings which can really appreciate
36:52.900 --> 36:57.060
how amazing it is.
36:57.060 --> 37:02.260
And in that picture, what would be the role of creativity, what a few people ask about
37:02.260 --> 37:03.260
creativity?
37:03.260 --> 37:04.260
Yeah.
37:04.260 --> 37:08.700
And do you think, when you think about intelligence, I mean, certainly the story you told at the
37:08.700 --> 37:14.100
beginning of your book involved, you know, creating movies and so on, sort of making
37:14.100 --> 37:18.580
money, you know, you can make a lot of money in our modern world with music and movies.
37:18.580 --> 37:23.100
So if you are an intelligent system, you may want to get good at that.
37:23.100 --> 37:26.300
But that's not necessarily what I mean by creativity.
37:26.300 --> 37:32.620
Is it important on that complex goals where the sea is rising for there to be something
37:32.620 --> 37:39.940
creative, or am I being very human centric and thinking creativity somehow special relative
37:39.940 --> 37:41.940
to intelligence?
37:41.940 --> 37:50.940
My hunch is that we should think of creativity simply as an aspect of intelligence.
37:50.940 --> 37:57.820
And we have to be very careful with human vanity.
37:57.820 --> 38:01.540
We have this tendency to very often want to say, as soon as machines can do something,
38:01.540 --> 38:05.980
we try to diminish it and say, oh, but that's not like real intelligence, you know, is
38:05.980 --> 38:12.620
it not creative or this or that, the other thing, if we ask ourselves to write down a
38:12.620 --> 38:18.500
definition of what we actually mean by being creative, what we mean by Andrew Wiles, what
38:18.500 --> 38:23.660
he did there, for example, don't we often mean that someone takes a very unexpected
38:23.660 --> 38:26.060
leap?
38:26.060 --> 38:33.740
It's not like taking 573 and multiplying by 224 by just a step of straightforward cookbook
38:33.740 --> 38:36.500
like rules, right?
38:36.500 --> 38:40.660
You can maybe make a connection between two things that people have never thought was
38:40.660 --> 38:41.660
connected.
38:41.660 --> 38:42.660
It's very surprising.
38:42.660 --> 38:44.300
Something like that.
38:44.300 --> 38:50.660
I think this is an aspect of intelligence, and this is actually one of the most important
38:50.660 --> 38:53.260
aspects of it.
38:53.260 --> 38:57.940
Maybe the reason we humans tend to be better at it than traditional computers is because
38:57.940 --> 39:02.020
it's something that comes more naturally if you're a neural network than if you're a
39:02.020 --> 39:05.820
traditional logic gates based computer machine.
39:05.820 --> 39:11.900
We physically have all these connections, and if you activate here, activate here, activate
39:11.900 --> 39:20.980
here, it ping, you know, my hunch is that if we ever build a machine where you could
39:20.980 --> 39:31.020
just give it the task, hey, hey, you say, hey, you know, I just realized I want to travel
39:31.020 --> 39:32.380
around the world instead this month.
39:32.380 --> 39:34.700
Can you teach my AGI course for me?
39:34.700 --> 39:36.100
And it's like, okay, I'll do it.
39:36.100 --> 39:39.860
And it does everything that you would have done and it improvises and stuff.
39:39.860 --> 39:42.860
That would in my mind involve a lot of creativity.
39:42.860 --> 39:45.660
Yeah, so it's actually a beautiful way to put it.
39:45.660 --> 39:54.540
I think we do try to grasp at the definition of intelligence as everything we don't understand
39:54.540 --> 39:57.580
how to build.
39:57.580 --> 40:02.180
So we as humans try to find things that we have and machines don't have, and maybe creativity
40:02.180 --> 40:05.940
is just one of the things, one of the words we used to describe that.
40:05.940 --> 40:06.940
That's a really interesting way to put it.
40:06.940 --> 40:09.820
I don't think we need to be that defensive.
40:09.820 --> 40:14.700
I don't think anything good comes out of saying, we're somehow special, you know, it's
40:14.700 --> 40:27.540
very wise, there are many examples in history of where trying to pretend they were somehow
40:27.540 --> 40:36.220
superior to all other intelligent beings has led to pretty bad results, right?
40:36.220 --> 40:39.700
Nazi Germany, they said that they were somehow superior to other people.
40:39.700 --> 40:44.580
Today, we still do a lot of cruelty to animals by saying they were so superior somehow on
40:44.580 --> 40:50.500
the other, they can't feel pain, slavery was justified by the same kind of really weak
40:50.500 --> 40:52.420
arguments.
40:52.420 --> 40:58.700
And I don't think if we actually go ahead and build artificial general intelligence,
40:58.700 --> 41:01.100
it can do things better than us.
41:01.100 --> 41:08.980
I don't think we should try to found our self worth on some sort of bogus claims of superiority
41:08.980 --> 41:11.940
in terms of our intelligence.
41:11.940 --> 41:21.780
I think we should instead find our calling and the meaning of life from the experiences
41:21.780 --> 41:22.780
that we have.
41:22.780 --> 41:23.780
Right.
41:23.780 --> 41:30.260
You know, I can have very meaningful experiences even if there are other people who are smarter
41:30.260 --> 41:35.860
than me, you know, when I go to faculty meeting here and I was talking about something and
41:35.860 --> 41:39.420
then I certainly realized, oh, he has an old prize, he has an old prize, he has an old
41:39.420 --> 41:40.420
prize.
41:40.420 --> 41:41.420
Yeah.
41:41.420 --> 41:47.660
You know, it doesn't make me enjoy life any less or enjoy talking to those people less.
41:47.660 --> 41:49.780
Of course not.
41:49.780 --> 41:57.420
And contrary to that, I feel very honored and privileged to get to interact with other
41:57.420 --> 42:00.820
very intelligent beings that are better than me and a lot of stuff.
42:00.820 --> 42:05.420
So I don't think there's any reason why we can't have the same approach with intelligent
42:05.420 --> 42:06.420
machines.
42:06.420 --> 42:08.900
That's a really interesting, so people don't often think about that.
42:08.900 --> 42:14.380
They think about if there's machines that are more intelligent, you naturally think
42:14.380 --> 42:19.100
that that's not going to be a beneficial type of intelligence.
42:19.100 --> 42:24.060
You don't realize it could be, you know, like peers with no ball prizes that would be just
42:24.060 --> 42:25.060
fun to talk with.
42:25.060 --> 42:30.580
And they might be clever about certain topics and you can have fun having a few drinks with
42:30.580 --> 42:31.580
them.
42:31.580 --> 42:38.620
Well, also, you know, another example we can all relate to why it doesn't have to be a
42:38.620 --> 42:42.580
terrible thing to be impressed, the presence of people who are even smarter than us all
42:42.580 --> 42:47.980
around is when you and I were both two years old, I mean, our parents were much more intelligent
42:47.980 --> 42:48.980
than us.
42:48.980 --> 42:49.980
Right.
42:49.980 --> 42:50.980
Worked out okay.
42:50.980 --> 42:54.140
Because their goals were aligned with our goals.
42:54.140 --> 43:01.380
And that I think is really the number one key issue we have to solve if we value align
43:01.380 --> 43:07.380
the value alignment problem exactly because people who see too many Hollywood movies with
43:07.380 --> 43:12.260
lousy science fiction plot lines, they worry about the wrong thing, right?
43:12.260 --> 43:16.500
They worry about some machine suddenly turning evil.
43:16.500 --> 43:21.500
It's not malice that we should that is the concern.
43:21.500 --> 43:23.000
It's competence.
43:23.000 --> 43:29.580
By definition, intelligence makes you makes you very competent if you have a more intelligent
43:29.580 --> 43:35.300
goal playing machine computer playing as a less intelligent one and when we define intelligence
43:35.300 --> 43:37.740
as the ability to accomplish go winning, right?
43:37.740 --> 43:40.780
It's going to be the more intelligent one that wins.
43:40.780 --> 43:47.860
And if you have a human and then you have an AGI that's more intelligent in all ways
43:47.860 --> 43:50.500
and they have different goals, guess who's going to get their way, right?
43:50.500 --> 43:58.060
So I was just reading about this particular rhinoceros species that was driven extinct
43:58.060 --> 43:59.060
just a few years ago.
43:59.060 --> 44:05.740
Alan Bummer is looking at this cute picture of a mommy rhinoceros with its child, you
44:05.740 --> 44:09.140
know, and why did we humans drive it to extinction?
44:09.140 --> 44:12.860
It wasn't because we were evil rhino haters as a whole.
44:12.860 --> 44:16.380
It was just because we our goals weren't aligned with those of the rhinoceros and it didn't
44:16.380 --> 44:19.660
work out so well for the rhinoceros because we were more intelligent, right?
44:19.660 --> 44:27.220
So I think it's just so important that if we ever do build AGI before we unleash anything,
44:27.220 --> 44:37.380
we have to make sure that it learns to understand our goals, that it adopts our goals and retains
44:37.380 --> 44:38.380
those goals.
44:38.380 --> 44:45.740
So the cool interesting problem there is being able, us as human beings, trying to formulate
44:45.740 --> 44:47.240
our values.
44:47.240 --> 44:52.540
So you know, you could think of the United States Constitution as a way that people sat
44:52.540 --> 44:59.780
down at the time a bunch of white men, which is a good example, I should say.
44:59.780 --> 45:03.460
They formulated the goals for this country and a lot of people agree that those goals
45:03.460 --> 45:05.540
actually held up pretty well.
45:05.540 --> 45:09.600
It's an interesting formulation of values and failed miserably in other ways.
45:09.600 --> 45:15.500
So for the value alignment problem and the solution to it, we have to be able to put
45:15.500 --> 45:23.420
on paper or in a program, human values, how difficult do you think that is?
45:23.420 --> 45:24.420
Very.
45:24.420 --> 45:25.980
But it's so important.
45:25.980 --> 45:30.340
We really have to give it our best and it's difficult for two separate reasons.
45:30.340 --> 45:37.660
There's the technical value alignment problem of figuring out just how to make machines
45:37.660 --> 45:40.660
understand our goals, adopt them and retain them.
45:40.660 --> 45:46.140
And then there's the separate part of it, the philosophical part, whose values anyway.
45:46.140 --> 45:51.700
And since we, it's not like we have any great consensus on this planet on values, what mechanism
45:51.700 --> 45:56.780
should we create then to aggregate and decide, okay, what's a good compromise?
45:56.780 --> 46:01.260
That second discussion can't just be left the tech nerds like myself, right?
46:01.260 --> 46:02.260
That's right.
46:02.260 --> 46:06.820
And if we refuse to talk about it and then AGI gets built, who's going to be actually
46:06.820 --> 46:10.660
making the decision about whose values, it's going to be a bunch of dudes in some tech
46:10.660 --> 46:12.380
company, right?
46:12.380 --> 46:18.420
And are they necessarily so representative of all of humankind that we want to just
46:18.420 --> 46:19.580
endorse it to them?
46:19.580 --> 46:25.220
Are they even uniquely qualified to speak to future human happiness just because they're
46:25.220 --> 46:26.460
good at programming AI?
46:26.460 --> 46:30.380
I'd much rather have this be a really inclusive conversation.
46:30.380 --> 46:32.700
But do you think it's possible?
46:32.700 --> 46:38.820
You create a beautiful vision that includes sort of the diversity, cultural diversity
46:38.820 --> 46:43.900
and various perspectives on discussing rights, freedoms, human dignity.
46:43.900 --> 46:46.620
But how hard is it to come to that consensus?
46:46.620 --> 46:52.140
Do you think it's certainly a really important thing that we should all try to do, but do
46:52.140 --> 46:54.460
you think it's feasible?
46:54.460 --> 47:01.660
I think there's no better way to guarantee failure than to refuse to talk about it or
47:01.660 --> 47:02.980
refuse to try.
47:02.980 --> 47:08.060
And I also think it's a really bad strategy to say, okay, let's first have a discussion
47:08.060 --> 47:09.060
for a long time.
47:09.060 --> 47:13.540
And then once we reach complete consensus, then we'll try to load it into some machine.
47:13.540 --> 47:16.980
No, we shouldn't let perfect be the enemy of good.
47:16.980 --> 47:22.140
Instead, we should start with the kindergarten ethics that pretty much everybody agrees on
47:22.140 --> 47:24.580
and put that into our machines now.
47:24.580 --> 47:26.100
We're not doing that even.
47:26.100 --> 47:32.980
Look at anyone who builds a passenger aircraft wants it to never under any circumstances
47:32.980 --> 47:35.900
fly into a building or mountain, right?
47:35.900 --> 47:38.860
Yet the September 11 hijackers were able to do that.
47:38.860 --> 47:44.220
And even more embarrassingly, Andreas Lubitz, this depressed German wings pilot, when he
47:44.220 --> 47:50.220
flew his passenger jet into the Alps, killing over 100 people, he just told the autopilot
47:50.220 --> 47:51.220
to do it.
47:51.220 --> 47:55.140
He told the freaking computer to change the altitude to 100 meters.
47:55.140 --> 48:01.820
And even though it had the GPS maps, everything, the computer was like, okay, no, so we should
48:01.820 --> 48:07.300
take those very basic values, though, where the problem is not that we don't agree.
48:07.300 --> 48:12.460
The problem is just we've been too lazy to try to put it into our machines and make sure
48:12.460 --> 48:17.460
that from now on, airplanes will just, which all have computers in them, but we'll just
48:17.460 --> 48:19.820
never just refuse to do something like that.
48:19.820 --> 48:25.580
We go into safe mode, maybe lock the cockpit door, go to the nearest airport, and there's
48:25.580 --> 48:31.340
so much other technology in our world as well now where it's really coming quite timely
48:31.340 --> 48:34.300
to put in some sort of very basic values like this.
48:34.300 --> 48:41.460
Even in cars, we've had enough vehicle terrorism attacks by now where people have driven trucks
48:41.460 --> 48:47.300
and vans into pedestrians that it's not at all a crazy idea to just have that hardwired
48:47.300 --> 48:51.420
into the car, because yeah, there are a lot of, there's always going to be people who
48:51.420 --> 48:55.620
for some reason want to harm others, but most of those people don't have the technical
48:55.620 --> 48:58.620
expertise to figure out how to work around something like that.
48:58.620 --> 49:01.780
So if the car just won't do it, it helps.
49:01.780 --> 49:02.940
So let's start there.
49:02.940 --> 49:05.020
So there's a lot of, that's a great point.
49:05.020 --> 49:06.900
So not chasing perfect.
49:06.900 --> 49:10.780
There's a lot of things that most of the world agrees on.
49:10.780 --> 49:11.940
Yeah, let's start there.
49:11.940 --> 49:12.940
Let's start there.
49:12.940 --> 49:18.140
And then once we start there, we'll also get into the habit of having these kind of conversations
49:18.140 --> 49:21.940
about, okay, what else should we put in here and have these discussions?
49:21.940 --> 49:24.100
This should be a gradual process then.
49:24.100 --> 49:25.100
Great.
49:25.100 --> 49:31.380
So, but that also means describing these things and describing it to a machine.
49:31.380 --> 49:35.620
So one thing, we had a few conversations with Steven Wolfram.
49:35.620 --> 49:37.140
I'm not sure if you're familiar with Steven Wolfram.
49:37.140 --> 49:38.500
Oh yeah, I know him quite well.
49:38.500 --> 49:43.380
So he has, you know, he works with a bunch of things, but you know, cellular automata,
49:43.380 --> 49:47.660
these simple computable things, these computation systems.
49:47.660 --> 49:52.380
And he kind of mentioned that, you know, we probably have already within these systems
49:52.380 --> 49:59.580
already something that's AGI, meaning like we just don't know it because we can't talk
49:59.580 --> 50:00.580
to it.
50:00.580 --> 50:06.380
So if you give me this chance to try it, to try to at least form a question out of this,
50:06.380 --> 50:12.780
because I think it's an interesting idea to think that we can have intelligent systems,
50:12.780 --> 50:17.260
but we don't know how to describe something to them and they can't communicate with us.
50:17.260 --> 50:21.220
I know you're doing a little bit of work in explainable AI, trying to get AI to explain
50:21.220 --> 50:22.220
itself.
50:22.220 --> 50:28.340
So what are your thoughts of natural language processing or some kind of other communication?
50:28.340 --> 50:30.220
How does the AI explain something to us?
50:30.220 --> 50:33.740
How do we explain something to it, to machines?
50:33.740 --> 50:35.420
Or you think of it differently?
50:35.420 --> 50:40.100
So there are two separate parts to your question there.
50:40.100 --> 50:43.900
One of them has to do with communication, which is super interesting and I'll get to
50:43.900 --> 50:44.900
that in a sec.
50:44.900 --> 50:50.100
The other is whether we already have AGI, we just haven't noticed it.
50:50.100 --> 50:54.340
There, I beg to differ.
50:54.340 --> 50:58.420
And don't think there's anything in any cellular automaton or anything or the internet itself
50:58.420 --> 51:05.400
or whatever that has artificial general intelligence in that it didn't really do exactly everything
51:05.400 --> 51:06.980
we humans can do better.
51:06.980 --> 51:14.100
I think the day that happens, when that happens, we will very soon notice and we'll probably
51:14.100 --> 51:17.980
notice even before because in a very, very big way.
51:17.980 --> 51:18.980
For the second part though.
51:18.980 --> 51:20.700
Can I just, sorry.
51:20.700 --> 51:30.260
Because you have this beautiful way to formulate in consciousness as information processing
51:30.260 --> 51:33.740
and you can think of intelligence and information processing and you can think of the entire
51:33.740 --> 51:34.740
universe.
51:34.740 --> 51:40.220
These particles and these systems roaming around that have this information processing
51:40.220 --> 51:47.500
power, you don't think there is something with the power to process information in the
51:47.500 --> 51:55.460
way that we human beings do that's out there that needs to be sort of connected to.
51:55.460 --> 51:59.980
It seems a little bit philosophical perhaps, but there's something compelling to the idea
51:59.980 --> 52:06.100
that the power is already there, the focus should be more on being able to communicate
52:06.100 --> 52:07.100
with it.
52:07.100 --> 52:15.340
Well, I agree that in a certain sense, the hardware processing power is already out there
52:15.340 --> 52:21.180
because our universe itself can think of it as being a computer already.
52:21.180 --> 52:25.540
It's constantly computing what water waves, how it devolved the water waves and the river
52:25.540 --> 52:29.860
Charles and how to move the air molecules around that Seth Lloyd has pointed out.
52:29.860 --> 52:33.940
My colleague here that you can even in a very rigorous way think of our entire universe
52:33.940 --> 52:35.660
is just being a quantum computer.
52:35.660 --> 52:40.900
It's pretty clear that our universe supports this amazing processing power because you
52:40.900 --> 52:46.580
can even within this physics computer that we live in, we can even build actual laptops
52:46.580 --> 52:47.580
and stuff.
52:47.580 --> 52:49.140
So clearly the power is there.
52:49.140 --> 52:53.420
It's just that most of the compute power that nature has, it's in my opinion kind of wasting
52:53.420 --> 52:57.140
on boring stuff like simulating yet another ocean wave somewhere where no one is even
52:57.140 --> 52:58.140
looking.
52:58.140 --> 53:03.820
So in a sense, what life does, what we are doing when we build computers is we're rechanneling
53:03.820 --> 53:09.380
all this compute that nature is doing anyway into doing things that are more interesting
53:09.380 --> 53:14.220
than just yet another ocean wave and do something cool here.
53:14.220 --> 53:21.100
So the raw hardware power is there for sure, and even just computing what's going to happen
53:21.100 --> 53:25.540
for the next five seconds in this water ball, you know, it takes a ridiculous amount of
53:25.540 --> 53:28.060
compute if you do it on a human computer.
53:28.060 --> 53:30.040
This water ball just did it.
53:30.040 --> 53:36.020
But that does not mean that this water ball has AGI and this because AGI means it should
53:36.020 --> 53:40.300
also be able to like I've written my book done this interview.
53:40.300 --> 53:42.100
And I don't think it's just communication problems.
53:42.100 --> 53:47.020
I don't think it can do it.
53:47.020 --> 53:51.780
So Buddhists say when they watch the water and that there is some beauty, that there's
53:51.780 --> 53:55.380
some depth and beauty in nature that they can communicate with.
53:55.380 --> 54:01.180
Communication is also very important because I mean, look, part of my job is being a teacher
54:01.180 --> 54:09.940
and I know some very intelligent professors even who just have a better hard time communicating.
54:09.940 --> 54:14.620
They come up with all these brilliant ideas, but to communicate with somebody else, you
54:14.620 --> 54:17.140
have to also be able to simulate their own mind.
54:17.140 --> 54:18.140
Yes.
54:18.140 --> 54:22.020
And build well enough and understand that model of their mind that you can say things
54:22.020 --> 54:24.500
that they will understand.
54:24.500 --> 54:26.700
And that's quite difficult.
54:26.700 --> 54:31.620
And that's why today it's so frustrating if you have a computer that makes some cancer
54:31.620 --> 54:36.260
diagnosis and you ask it, well, why are you saying I should have a surgery?
54:36.260 --> 54:43.620
And if you don't want to reply, I was trained on five terabytes of data and this is my diagnosis
54:43.620 --> 54:49.220
boop, boop, beep, beep, doesn't really instill a lot of confidence, right?
54:49.220 --> 54:54.420
So I think we have a lot of work to do on communication there.
54:54.420 --> 54:59.380
So what kind of, I think you're doing a little bit of work in explainable AI.
54:59.380 --> 55:01.340
What do you think are the most promising avenues?
55:01.340 --> 55:07.100
Is it mostly about sort of the Alexa problem of natural language processing of being able
55:07.100 --> 55:13.220
to actually use human interpretable methods of communication?
55:13.220 --> 55:17.500
So being able to talk to a system and talk back to you, or is there some more fundamental
55:17.500 --> 55:18.500
problems to be solved?
55:18.500 --> 55:21.180
I think it's all of the above.
55:21.180 --> 55:27.180
The natural language processing is obviously important, but there are also more nerdy fundamental
55:27.180 --> 55:28.180
problems.
55:28.180 --> 55:39.180
Like if you take, you play chess, Russian, I have to, when did you learn Russian?
55:39.180 --> 55:45.700
I speak Russian very poorly, but I bought a book, teach yourself Russian, I read a lot,
55:45.700 --> 55:47.700
but it was very difficult.
55:47.700 --> 55:48.700
Wow.
55:48.700 --> 55:49.700
That's why I speak so poorly.
55:49.700 --> 55:51.700
How many languages do you know?
55:51.700 --> 55:52.700
Wow.
55:52.700 --> 55:53.700
That's really impressive.
55:53.700 --> 55:54.700
I don't know.
55:54.700 --> 55:58.740
My wife has some calculations, but my point was, if you played chess, have you looked
55:58.740 --> 56:00.260
at the AlphaZero games?
56:00.260 --> 56:01.260
Yeah.
56:01.260 --> 56:02.260
Oh, the actual games now.
56:02.260 --> 56:03.260
Check it out.
56:03.260 --> 56:09.900
Some of them are just mind blowing, really beautiful.
56:09.900 --> 56:12.460
If you ask, how did it do that?
56:12.460 --> 56:14.500
You got that.
56:14.500 --> 56:20.540
Talk to Demis Osabis, others from DeepMind, all they'll ultimately be able to give you
56:20.540 --> 56:26.940
is big tables of numbers, matrices that define the neural network, and you can stare at these
56:26.940 --> 56:32.980
tables numbers till your face turned blue, and you're not going to understand much about
56:32.980 --> 56:35.860
why it made that move.
56:35.860 --> 56:40.540
Even if you have a natural language processing that can tell you in human language about,
56:40.540 --> 56:44.180
oh, five, seven, point two, eight, still not going to really help.
56:44.180 --> 56:50.660
I think there's a whole spectrum of fun challenges there involved in taking computation that
56:50.660 --> 56:59.940
does intelligent things and transforming it into something equally good, equally intelligent,
56:59.940 --> 57:02.060
but that's more understandable.
57:02.060 --> 57:08.180
I think that's really valuable because I think as we put machines in charge of ever more
57:08.180 --> 57:13.540
infrastructure in our world, the power grid, the trading on the stock market, weapon systems,
57:13.540 --> 57:19.620
and so on, it's absolutely crucial that we can trust these AIs that do all we want and
57:19.620 --> 57:25.860
trust really comes from understanding in a very fundamental way.
57:25.860 --> 57:29.940
That's why I'm working on this, because I think the more if we're going to have some
57:29.940 --> 57:34.700
hope of ensuring that machines have adopted our goals and that they're going to retain
57:34.700 --> 57:41.260
them, that kind of trust, I think, needs to be based on things you can actually understand,
57:41.260 --> 57:47.140
preferably even improve theorems on, even with a self driving car, right?
57:47.140 --> 57:51.020
If someone just tells you it's been trained on tons of data and never crashed, it's less
57:51.020 --> 57:54.460
reassuring than if someone actually has a proof.
57:54.460 --> 57:58.820
Maybe it's a computer verified proof, but still it says that under no circumstances
57:58.820 --> 58:02.420
is this car just going to swerve into oncoming traffic.
58:02.420 --> 58:09.460
And that kind of information helps build trust and helps build the alignment of goals, at
58:09.460 --> 58:12.300
least awareness that your goals, your values are aligned.
58:12.300 --> 58:17.620
And I think even in the very short term, if you look at how today, this absolutely pathetic
58:17.620 --> 58:25.980
state of cybersecurity that we have, where is it, 3 billion Yahoo accounts are packed
58:25.980 --> 58:34.300
and almost every American's credit card and so on, you know, why is this happening?
58:34.300 --> 58:39.940
It's ultimately happening because we have software that nobody fully understood how
58:39.940 --> 58:41.460
it worked.
58:41.460 --> 58:45.100
That's why the bugs hadn't been found, right?
58:45.100 --> 58:50.340
And I think AI can be used very effectively for offense for hacking, but it can also be
58:50.340 --> 59:00.580
used for defense, hopefully, automating verifiability and creating systems that are built in different
59:00.580 --> 59:03.140
ways so you can actually prove things about them.
59:03.140 --> 59:05.460
And it's important.
59:05.460 --> 59:09.740
So speaking of software that nobody understands how it works, of course, a bunch of people
59:09.740 --> 59:14.820
ask about your paper about your thoughts of why does deep and cheap learning work so well?
59:14.820 --> 59:19.280
That's the paper, but what are your thoughts on deep learning, these kind of simplified
59:19.280 --> 59:26.620
models of our own brains that have been able to do some successful perception work, pattern
59:26.620 --> 59:30.940
recognition work, and now with AlphaZero and so on, do some clever things?
59:30.940 --> 59:35.740
What are your thoughts about the promise limitations of this piece?
59:35.740 --> 59:37.140
Great.
59:37.140 --> 59:44.300
I think there are a number of very important insights, very important lessons we can always
59:44.300 --> 59:47.340
draw from these kind of successes.
59:47.340 --> 59:50.460
One of them is when you look at the human brain, you see it's very complicated, a tenth
59:50.460 --> 59:54.140
of 11 neurons, and there are all these different kinds of neurons, and yada yada, and there's
59:54.140 --> 59:57.980
been this long debate about whether the fact that we have dozens of different kinds is
59:57.980 --> 1:00:01.580
actually necessary for intelligence.
1:00:01.580 --> 1:00:06.500
We can now, I think, quite convincingly answer that question of no, it's enough to have just
1:00:06.500 --> 1:00:07.500
one kind.
1:00:07.500 --> 1:00:11.780
If you look under the hood of AlphaZero, there's only one kind of neuron, and it's ridiculously
1:00:11.780 --> 1:00:15.060
simple, a simple mathematical thing.
1:00:15.060 --> 1:00:21.380
So it's just like in physics, if you have a gas with waves in it, it's not the detailed
1:00:21.380 --> 1:00:24.380
nature of the molecules that matter.
1:00:24.380 --> 1:00:27.060
It's the collective behavior, somehow.
1:00:27.060 --> 1:00:33.060
Similarly, it's this higher level structure of the network that matters, not that you
1:00:33.060 --> 1:00:34.060
have 20 kinds of neurons.
1:00:34.060 --> 1:00:41.740
I think our brain is such a complicated mess because it wasn't evolved just to be intelligent,
1:00:41.740 --> 1:00:51.740
it was evolved to also be self assembling, and self repairing, and evolutionarily attainable.
1:00:51.740 --> 1:00:53.660
And patches and so on.
1:00:53.660 --> 1:00:58.700
So I think it's pretty, my hunch is that we're going to understand how to build AGI before
1:00:58.700 --> 1:01:01.060
we fully understand how our brains work.
1:01:01.060 --> 1:01:06.260
Just like we understood how to build flying machines long before we were able to build
1:01:06.260 --> 1:01:07.260
a mechanical bird.
1:01:07.260 --> 1:01:08.260
Yeah, that's right.
1:01:08.260 --> 1:01:15.300
You've given the example of mechanical birds and airplanes, and airplanes do a pretty good
1:01:15.300 --> 1:01:18.620
job of flying without really mimicking bird flight.
1:01:18.620 --> 1:01:23.180
And even now, after 100 years later, did you see the TED talk with this German group of
1:01:23.180 --> 1:01:24.180
mechanical birds?
1:01:24.180 --> 1:01:25.180
I did not.
1:01:25.180 --> 1:01:26.180
I've heard you mention it.
1:01:26.180 --> 1:01:27.180
Check it out.
1:01:27.180 --> 1:01:28.180
It's amazing.
1:01:28.180 --> 1:01:30.180
But even after that, we still don't fly in mechanical birds because it turned out the
1:01:30.180 --> 1:01:34.580
way we came up with simpler, and it's better for our purposes, and I think it might be the
1:01:34.580 --> 1:01:35.580
same there.
1:01:35.580 --> 1:01:38.140
So that's one lesson.
1:01:38.140 --> 1:01:42.020
Another lesson is one of what our paper was about.
1:01:42.020 --> 1:01:47.420
Well, first, as a physicist thought, it was fascinating how there's a very close mathematical
1:01:47.420 --> 1:01:50.900
relationship, actually, between our artificial neural networks.
1:01:50.900 --> 1:01:56.580
And a lot of things that we've studied for in physics go by nerdy names like the renormalization
1:01:56.580 --> 1:02:01.100
group equation and Hamiltonians and yada, yada, yada.
1:02:01.100 --> 1:02:11.380
And when you look a little more closely at this, you have, at first, I was like, well,
1:02:11.380 --> 1:02:18.700
there's something crazy here that doesn't make sense because we know that if you even
1:02:18.700 --> 1:02:23.380
want to build a super simple neural network to tell apart cat pictures and dog pictures,
1:02:23.380 --> 1:02:27.260
right, that you can do that very, very well now.
1:02:27.260 --> 1:02:31.540
But if you think about it a little bit, you convince yourself it must be impossible because
1:02:31.540 --> 1:02:36.420
if I have one megapixel, even if each pixel is just black or white, there's two to the
1:02:36.420 --> 1:02:40.900
power of one million possible images, which is way more than there are atoms in our universe.
1:02:40.900 --> 1:02:47.220
So in order to, and then for each one of those, I have to assign a number, which is the probability
1:02:47.220 --> 1:02:49.100
that it's a dog.
1:02:49.100 --> 1:02:55.900
So an arbitrary function of images is a list of more numbers than there are atoms in our
1:02:55.900 --> 1:02:56.900
universe.
1:02:56.900 --> 1:03:02.220
So clearly, I can't store that under the hood of my, my GPU or my, my computer yet somehow
1:03:02.220 --> 1:03:03.220
works.
1:03:03.220 --> 1:03:04.220
So what does that mean?
1:03:04.220 --> 1:03:12.940
Well, it means that out of all of the problems that you could try to solve with a neural network,
1:03:12.940 --> 1:03:17.940
almost all of them are impossible to solve with a reasonably sized one.
1:03:17.940 --> 1:03:24.820
But then what we showed in our paper was, was that the, the fraction, the kind of problems,
1:03:24.820 --> 1:03:29.740
the fraction of all the problems that you could possibly pose that the, that we actually
1:03:29.740 --> 1:03:34.980
care about given the laws of physics is also an infinitesimally tiny little part.
1:03:34.980 --> 1:03:37.180
And amazingly, they're basically the same part.
1:03:37.180 --> 1:03:38.180
Yeah.
1:03:38.180 --> 1:03:41.180
It's almost like our world was created for, I mean, they kind of come together.
1:03:41.180 --> 1:03:42.180
Yeah.
1:03:42.180 --> 1:03:44.940
You, but you could say maybe where the world created the world that the world was created
1:03:44.940 --> 1:03:50.300
for us, but I have a more modest interpretation, which is that instead evolution endowments
1:03:50.300 --> 1:03:54.700
with neural networks, precisely for that reason, because this particular architecture has
1:03:54.700 --> 1:04:02.380
opposed to the one in your laptop is very, very well adapted to solving the kind of problems
1:04:02.380 --> 1:04:05.540
that nature kept presenting our ancestors with, right?
1:04:05.540 --> 1:04:09.380
So it makes sense that why do we have a brain in the first place?
1:04:09.380 --> 1:04:12.940
It's to be able to make predictions about the future and so on.
1:04:12.940 --> 1:04:17.580
So if we had a sucky system, which could never solve it, it wouldn't have a lot.
1:04:17.580 --> 1:04:23.420
So, but it's, so this is, this is a, I think a very beautiful fact.
1:04:23.420 --> 1:04:24.420
Yeah.
1:04:24.420 --> 1:04:28.780
And you also realize that there's, there, that we, there've been, it's been earlier
1:04:28.780 --> 1:04:34.140
work on, on why deeper networks are good, but we were able to show an additional cool
1:04:34.140 --> 1:04:40.260
fact there, which is that even incredibly simple problems, like suppose I give you a
1:04:40.260 --> 1:04:45.020
thousand numbers and ask you to multiply them together and you can write a few lines of
1:04:45.020 --> 1:04:46.820
code, boom, done, trivial.
1:04:46.820 --> 1:04:52.580
If you just try to do that with a neural network that has only one single hidden layer in it,
1:04:52.580 --> 1:04:59.940
you can do it, but you're going to need two to the power of thousand neurons to multiply
1:04:59.940 --> 1:05:03.260
a thousand numbers, which is again, more neurons than their atoms in our universe.
1:05:03.260 --> 1:05:05.740
So that's fascinating.
1:05:05.740 --> 1:05:11.580
But if you allow, if you allow yourself, make it a deep network of many layers, you only
1:05:11.580 --> 1:05:15.340
need four thousand neurons, it's perfectly feasible.
1:05:15.340 --> 1:05:17.500
So that's really interesting.
1:05:17.500 --> 1:05:18.500
Yeah.
1:05:18.500 --> 1:05:19.500
Yeah.
1:05:19.500 --> 1:05:24.460
So architecture type, I mean, you mentioned Schrodinger's equation and what are your thoughts
1:05:24.460 --> 1:05:32.860
about quantum computing and the role of this kind of computational unit in creating an
1:05:32.860 --> 1:05:34.900
intelligent system?
1:05:34.900 --> 1:05:41.100
In some Hollywood movies that I don't mention my name because I don't want to spoil them.
1:05:41.100 --> 1:05:46.820
The way they get AGI is building a quantum computer because the word quantum sounds
1:05:46.820 --> 1:05:47.820
cool and so on.
1:05:47.820 --> 1:05:48.820
That's right.
1:05:48.820 --> 1:05:54.940
But first of all, I think we don't need quantum computers to build AGI.
1:05:54.940 --> 1:06:01.740
I suspect your brain is not quantum computer in any found sense.
1:06:01.740 --> 1:06:03.460
So you don't even wrote a paper about that.
1:06:03.460 --> 1:06:09.060
Many years ago, I calculated the so called decoherence time that how long it takes until
1:06:09.060 --> 1:06:16.900
the quantum computerness of what your neurons are doing gets erased by just random noise
1:06:16.900 --> 1:06:21.420
from the environment and it's about 10 to the minus 21 seconds.
1:06:21.420 --> 1:06:27.420
So as cool as it would be to have a quantum computer in my head, I don't think that fast.
1:06:27.420 --> 1:06:35.820
On the other hand, there are very cool things you could do with quantum computers or I think
1:06:35.820 --> 1:06:40.780
we'll be able to do soon when we get bigger ones that might actually help machine learning
1:06:40.780 --> 1:06:43.180
do even better than the brain.
1:06:43.180 --> 1:06:58.620
So for example, one, this is just a moonshot, but hey, learning is very much same thing
1:06:58.620 --> 1:07:00.860
as search.
1:07:00.860 --> 1:07:05.460
If you're trying to train a neural network to get really learned to do something really
1:07:05.460 --> 1:07:10.820
well, you have some loss function, you have a bunch of knobs you can turn represented
1:07:10.820 --> 1:07:14.420
by a bunch of numbers and you're trying to tweak them so that it becomes as good as possible
1:07:14.420 --> 1:07:15.420
at this thing.
1:07:15.420 --> 1:07:22.580
So if you think of a landscape with some valley, where each dimension of the landscape corresponds
1:07:22.580 --> 1:07:25.780
to some number you can change, you're trying to find the minimum.
1:07:25.780 --> 1:07:29.980
And it's well known that if you have a very high dimensional landscape, complicated things,
1:07:29.980 --> 1:07:34.140
it's super hard to find the minimum.
1:07:34.140 --> 1:07:37.500
Quantum mechanics is amazingly good at this.
1:07:37.500 --> 1:07:42.980
If I want to know what's the lowest energy state this water can possibly have incredibly
1:07:42.980 --> 1:07:47.860
hard to compute, but nature will happily figure this out for you if you just cool it down,
1:07:47.860 --> 1:07:50.860
make it very, very cold.
1:07:50.860 --> 1:07:55.260
If you put a ball somewhere, it'll roll down to its minimum and this happens metaphorically
1:07:55.260 --> 1:07:57.620
at the energy landscape too.
1:07:57.620 --> 1:08:02.940
And quantum mechanics even uses some clever tricks which today's machine learning systems
1:08:02.940 --> 1:08:03.940
don't.
1:08:03.940 --> 1:08:07.940
If you're trying to find the minimum and you get stuck in the little local minimum here
1:08:07.940 --> 1:08:14.180
in quantum mechanics, you can actually tunnel through the barrier and get unstuck again.
1:08:14.180 --> 1:08:15.420
And that's really interesting.
1:08:15.420 --> 1:08:16.420
Yeah.
1:08:16.420 --> 1:08:22.940
So maybe for example, we'll one day use quantum computers that help train neural networks
1:08:22.940 --> 1:08:23.940
better.
1:08:23.940 --> 1:08:24.940
That's really interesting.
1:08:24.940 --> 1:08:25.940
Okay.
1:08:25.940 --> 1:08:32.020
So as a component of kind of the learning process, for example, let me ask sort of wrapping
1:08:32.020 --> 1:08:34.060
up here a little bit.
1:08:34.060 --> 1:08:40.540
Let me return to the questions of our human nature and love, as I mentioned.
1:08:40.540 --> 1:08:48.020
So do you think you mentioned sort of a helper robot that you could think of also personal
1:08:48.020 --> 1:08:49.020
robots.
1:08:49.020 --> 1:08:55.300
Do you think the way we human beings fall in love and get connected to each other is
1:08:55.300 --> 1:09:00.420
possible to achieve in an AI system and human level AI intelligence system.
1:09:00.420 --> 1:09:06.100
Do you think we would ever see that kind of connection or, you know, in all this discussion
1:09:06.100 --> 1:09:11.460
about solving complex goals, as this kind of human social connection, do you think that's
1:09:11.460 --> 1:09:16.460
one of the goals on the peaks and valleys that were the raising sea levels that we'd
1:09:16.460 --> 1:09:17.460
be able to achieve?
1:09:17.460 --> 1:09:22.180
Or do you think that's something that's ultimately, or at least in the short term, relative to
1:09:22.180 --> 1:09:23.620
the other goals is not achievable?
1:09:23.620 --> 1:09:25.220
I think it's all possible.
1:09:25.220 --> 1:09:31.780
And I mean, in recent, there's a very wide range of guesses, as you know, among AI researchers
1:09:31.780 --> 1:09:35.300
when we're going to get AGI.
1:09:35.300 --> 1:09:39.620
Some people, you know, like our friend Rodney Brooks said, it's going to be hundreds of
1:09:39.620 --> 1:09:41.140
years at least.
1:09:41.140 --> 1:09:44.780
And then there are many others that think it's going to happen relatively much sooner.
1:09:44.780 --> 1:09:52.140
Recent polls, maybe half or so, AI researchers think we're going to get AGI within decades.
1:09:52.140 --> 1:09:56.260
So if that happens, of course, then I think these things are all possible.
1:09:56.260 --> 1:10:01.860
But in terms of whether it will happen, I think we shouldn't spend so much time asking,
1:10:01.860 --> 1:10:04.260
what do we think will happen in the future?
1:10:04.260 --> 1:10:08.980
As if we are just some sort of pathetic, passive bystanders, you know, waiting for the future
1:10:08.980 --> 1:10:12.740
to happen to us, hey, we're the ones creating this future, right?
1:10:12.740 --> 1:10:18.340
So we should be proactive about it and ask ourselves what sort of future we would like
1:10:18.340 --> 1:10:19.340
to have happen.
1:10:19.340 --> 1:10:20.340
That's right.
1:10:20.340 --> 1:10:21.340
Trying to make it like that.
1:10:21.340 --> 1:10:25.660
Well, what I prefer is some sort of incredibly boring zombie like future where there's all
1:10:25.660 --> 1:10:30.220
these mechanical things happening and there's no passion, no emotion, no experience, maybe
1:10:30.220 --> 1:10:31.220
even.
1:10:31.220 --> 1:10:35.740
No, I would, of course, much rather prefer it if all the things that we find that we
1:10:35.740 --> 1:10:44.180
value the most about humanity are a subjective experience, passion, inspiration, love, you
1:10:44.180 --> 1:10:50.780
know, if we can create a future where those things do exist.
1:10:50.780 --> 1:10:56.500
You know, I think ultimately it's not our universe giving meaning to us, it's us giving
1:10:56.500 --> 1:10:58.500
meaning to our universe.
1:10:58.500 --> 1:11:03.620
And if we build more advanced intelligence, let's make sure we build it in such a way
1:11:03.620 --> 1:11:09.100
that meaning is part of it.
1:11:09.100 --> 1:11:13.900
A lot of people that seriously study this problem and think of it from different angles have
1:11:13.900 --> 1:11:20.140
trouble in the majority of cases, if they think through that happen, are the ones that
1:11:20.140 --> 1:11:22.620
are not beneficial to humanity.
1:11:22.620 --> 1:11:27.260
And so, yeah, so what are your thoughts?
1:11:27.260 --> 1:11:33.820
What should people, you know, I really don't like people to be terrified, what's the way
1:11:33.820 --> 1:11:38.660
for people to think about it in a way that, in a way we can solve it and we can make it
1:11:38.660 --> 1:11:39.660
better.
1:11:39.660 --> 1:11:40.660
Yeah.
1:11:40.660 --> 1:11:44.780
No, I don't think panicking is going to help in any way, it's not going to increase chances
1:11:44.780 --> 1:11:46.060
of things going well either.
1:11:46.060 --> 1:11:49.340
Even if you are in a situation where there is a real threat, does it help if everybody
1:11:49.340 --> 1:11:50.620
just freaks out?
1:11:50.620 --> 1:11:51.620
Right.
1:11:51.620 --> 1:11:53.620
No, of course not.
1:11:53.620 --> 1:11:59.740
I think, yeah, there are, of course, ways in which things can go horribly wrong.
1:11:59.740 --> 1:12:04.460
First of all, it's important when we think about this thing, this, about the problems
1:12:04.460 --> 1:12:08.780
and risks, to also remember how huge the upsides can be if we get it right.
1:12:08.780 --> 1:12:13.420
Everything we love about society and civilization is a product of intelligence.
1:12:13.420 --> 1:12:17.980
So if we can amplify our intelligence with machine intelligence and not anymore lose
1:12:17.980 --> 1:12:23.380
our loved ones, what we're told is an uncurable disease and things like this, of course, we
1:12:23.380 --> 1:12:24.940
should aspire to that.
1:12:24.940 --> 1:12:28.700
So that can be a motivator, I think, reminding yourselves that the reason we try to solve
1:12:28.700 --> 1:12:34.140
problems is not just because we're trying to avoid gloom, but because we're trying to
1:12:34.140 --> 1:12:35.900
do something great.
1:12:35.900 --> 1:12:43.340
But then in terms of the risks, I think the really important question is to ask, what
1:12:43.340 --> 1:12:47.740
can we do today that will actually help make the outcome good, right?
1:12:47.740 --> 1:12:52.700
And dismissing the risk is not one of them, you know, I find it quite funny often when
1:12:52.700 --> 1:13:01.540
I'm in discussion panels about these things, how the people who work for companies will
1:13:01.540 --> 1:13:05.100
always be like, oh, nothing to worry about, nothing to worry about, nothing to worry about.
1:13:05.100 --> 1:13:09.980
And it's always, it's only academics sometimes express concerns.
1:13:09.980 --> 1:13:10.980
That's not surprising at all.
1:13:10.980 --> 1:13:17.500
If you think about it, often Sinclair quipped, right, that it's hard to make a man believe
1:13:17.500 --> 1:13:20.620
in something when his income depends on not believing in it.
1:13:20.620 --> 1:13:25.580
And frankly, we know a lot of these people in companies that they're just as concerned
1:13:25.580 --> 1:13:26.580
as anyone else.
1:13:26.580 --> 1:13:30.300
But if you're the CEO of a company, that's not something you want to go on record saying
1:13:30.300 --> 1:13:34.980
when you have silly journalists who are going to put a picture of a Terminator robot when
1:13:34.980 --> 1:13:35.980
they quote you.
1:13:35.980 --> 1:13:39.380
So, so the issues are real.
1:13:39.380 --> 1:13:45.660
And the way I think about what the issue is, is basically, you know, the real choice we
1:13:45.660 --> 1:13:51.980
have is, first of all, are we going to dismiss this, the risks and say, well, you know, let's
1:13:51.980 --> 1:13:57.140
just go ahead and build machines that can do everything we can do better and cheaper,
1:13:57.140 --> 1:14:00.940
you know, let's just make ourselves obsolete as fast as possible or what could possibly
1:14:00.940 --> 1:14:01.940
go wrong.
1:14:01.940 --> 1:14:02.940
Right.
1:14:02.940 --> 1:14:03.940
That's one attitude.
1:14:03.940 --> 1:14:09.380
The opposite attitude that I think is to say, it's incredible potential, you know, let's
1:14:09.380 --> 1:14:14.900
think about what kind of future we're really, really excited about.
1:14:14.900 --> 1:14:18.700
What are the shared goals that we can really aspire towards?
1:14:18.700 --> 1:14:22.100
And then let's think really hard about how we can actually get there.
1:14:22.100 --> 1:14:23.100
So start with it.
1:14:23.100 --> 1:14:24.460
Don't start thinking about the risks.
1:14:24.460 --> 1:14:26.940
Start thinking about the goals.
1:14:26.940 --> 1:14:30.540
And then when you do that, then you can think about the obstacles you want to avoid, right?
1:14:30.540 --> 1:14:34.420
I often get students coming in right here into my office for career advice.
1:14:34.420 --> 1:14:38.060
Always ask them this very question, where do you want to be in the future?
1:14:38.060 --> 1:14:42.580
If all she can say is, oh, maybe I'll have cancer, maybe I'll run over by a truck.
1:14:42.580 --> 1:14:44.420
Focus on the obstacles instead of the goal.
1:14:44.420 --> 1:14:49.340
She's just going to end up a hypochondriac paranoid, whereas if she comes in and fire
1:14:49.340 --> 1:14:54.060
in her eyes and is like, I want to be there, and then we can talk about the obstacles and
1:14:54.060 --> 1:14:56.100
see how we can circumvent them.
1:14:56.100 --> 1:14:59.100
That's I think a much, much healthier attitude.
1:14:59.100 --> 1:15:01.540
And that's really what we're in.
1:15:01.540 --> 1:15:09.420
And I feel it's very challenging to come up with a vision for the future, which we're
1:15:09.420 --> 1:15:10.660
unequivocally excited about.
1:15:10.660 --> 1:15:14.300
I'm not just talking now in the vague terms like, yeah, let's cure cancer.
1:15:14.300 --> 1:15:18.500
I'm talking about what kind of society do we want to create?
1:15:18.500 --> 1:15:25.380
What do we want it to mean to be human in the age of AI, in the age of AGI?
1:15:25.380 --> 1:15:31.460
So if we can have this conversation, broad, inclusive conversation, and gradually start
1:15:31.460 --> 1:15:38.100
converging towards some future with some direction at least that we want to steer towards, right?
1:15:38.100 --> 1:15:42.340
Then we'll be much more motivated to constructively take on the obstacles.
1:15:42.340 --> 1:15:54.260
And I think if I wrap this up in a more succinct way, I think we can all agree already now that
1:15:54.260 --> 1:16:05.540
we should aspire to build AGI that doesn't overpower us, but that empowers us.
1:16:05.540 --> 1:16:10.820
And think of the many various ways that can do that, whether that's from my side of the
1:16:10.820 --> 1:16:12.860
world of autonomous vehicles.
1:16:12.860 --> 1:16:17.020
I'm personally actually from the camp that believes this human level intelligence is
1:16:17.020 --> 1:16:22.780
required to achieve something like vehicles that would actually be something we would
1:16:22.780 --> 1:16:25.380
enjoy using and being part of.
1:16:25.380 --> 1:16:26.380
So that's the one example.
1:16:26.380 --> 1:16:31.140
And certainly there's a lot of other types of robots and medicine and so on.
1:16:31.140 --> 1:16:35.300
So focusing on those and then coming up with the obstacles, coming up with the ways that
1:16:35.300 --> 1:16:38.420
that can go wrong and solving those one at a time.
1:16:38.420 --> 1:16:42.980
And just because you can build an autonomous vehicle, even if you could build one that
1:16:42.980 --> 1:16:47.500
would drive this final AGI, maybe there are some things in life that we would actually
1:16:47.500 --> 1:16:48.500
want to do ourselves.
1:16:48.500 --> 1:16:49.500
That's right.
1:16:49.500 --> 1:16:50.500
Right?
1:16:50.500 --> 1:16:54.660
Like, for example, if you think of our society as a whole, there are some things that we
1:16:54.660 --> 1:16:57.540
find very meaningful to do.
1:16:57.540 --> 1:17:02.100
And that doesn't mean we have to stop doing them just because machines can do them better.
1:17:02.100 --> 1:17:06.660
I'm not going to stop playing tennis just the day someone builds a tennis robot and
1:17:06.660 --> 1:17:07.660
beat me.
1:17:07.660 --> 1:17:09.900
People are still playing chess and even go.
1:17:09.900 --> 1:17:10.900
Yeah.
1:17:10.900 --> 1:17:19.100
And in this very near term, even some people are advocating basic income, replace jobs.
1:17:19.100 --> 1:17:22.780
But if the government is going to be willing to just hand out cash to people for doing
1:17:22.780 --> 1:17:27.660
nothing, then one should also seriously consider whether the government should also just hire
1:17:27.660 --> 1:17:33.380
a lot more teachers and nurses and the kind of jobs which people often find great fulfillment
1:17:33.380 --> 1:17:34.380
in doing, right?
1:17:34.380 --> 1:17:38.900
We get very tired of hearing politicians saying, oh, we can't afford hiring more teachers,
1:17:38.900 --> 1:17:41.700
but we're going to maybe have basic income.
1:17:41.700 --> 1:17:46.340
If we can have more serious research and thought into what gives meaning to our lives, the
1:17:46.340 --> 1:17:50.700
jobs give so much more than income, right?
1:17:50.700 --> 1:18:00.020
And then think about, in the future, what are the roles that we want to have people
1:18:00.020 --> 1:18:03.180
continually feeling empowered by machines?
1:18:03.180 --> 1:18:08.900
And I think sort of, I come from the Russia, from the Soviet Union, and I think for a lot
1:18:08.900 --> 1:18:14.100
of people in the 20th century, going to the moon, going to space was an inspiring thing.
1:18:14.100 --> 1:18:21.300
I feel like the universe of the mind, so AI, understanding, creating intelligence is that
1:18:21.300 --> 1:18:23.380
for the 21st century.
1:18:23.380 --> 1:18:26.740
So it's really surprising, and I've heard you mention this, it's really surprising to
1:18:26.740 --> 1:18:31.940
me both on the research funding side that it's not funded as greatly as it could be.
1:18:31.940 --> 1:18:36.500
But most importantly, on the politician side, that it's not part of the public discourse
1:18:36.500 --> 1:18:44.300
except in killer bots, terminator kind of view, that people are not yet, I think, perhaps
1:18:44.300 --> 1:18:48.260
excited by the possible positive future that we can build together.
1:18:48.260 --> 1:18:54.660
So we should be, because politicians usually just focus on the next election cycle, right?
1:18:54.660 --> 1:18:59.340
The single most important thing I feel we humans have learned in the entire history of science
1:18:59.340 --> 1:19:07.460
is they were the masters of underestimation, underestimated the size of our cosmos, again
1:19:07.460 --> 1:19:11.380
and again, realizing that everything we thought existed was just a small part of something
1:19:11.380 --> 1:19:12.380
grander, right?
1:19:12.380 --> 1:19:18.580
Planet, solar system, the galaxy, clusters of galaxies, the universe.
1:19:18.580 --> 1:19:25.700
And we now know that we have the future has just so much more potential than our ancestors
1:19:25.700 --> 1:19:27.820
could ever have dreamt of.
1:19:27.820 --> 1:19:39.820
This cosmos, imagine if all of Earth was completely devoid of life except for Cambridge, Massachusetts.
1:19:39.820 --> 1:19:44.220
Wouldn't it be kind of lame if all we ever aspired to was to stay in Cambridge, Massachusetts
1:19:44.220 --> 1:19:49.660
forever and then go extinct in one week, even though Earth was going to continue on for
1:19:49.660 --> 1:19:50.660
longer?
1:19:50.660 --> 1:19:57.300
That sort of attitude I think we have now on the cosmic scale, we can, life can flourish
1:19:57.300 --> 1:20:00.820
on Earth, not for four years, but for billions of years.
1:20:00.820 --> 1:20:06.340
I can even tell you about how to move it out of harm's way when the sun gets too hot.
1:20:06.340 --> 1:20:11.900
And then we have so much more resources out here, which today, maybe there are a lot of
1:20:11.900 --> 1:20:19.380
other planets with bacteria or cow like life on them, but most of this, all this opportunity
1:20:19.380 --> 1:20:25.380
seems as far as we can tell to be largely dead, like the Sahara Desert, and yet we have the
1:20:25.380 --> 1:20:30.380
opportunity to help life flourish around this for billions of years.
1:20:30.380 --> 1:20:37.420
So like, let's quit squabbling about whether some little border should be drawn one mile
1:20:37.420 --> 1:20:43.380
to the left or right and look up into the skies and realize, hey, we can do such incredible
1:20:43.380 --> 1:20:44.380
things.
1:20:44.380 --> 1:20:45.380
Yeah.
1:20:45.380 --> 1:20:49.980
And that's I think why it's really exciting that you and others are connected with some
1:20:49.980 --> 1:20:54.740
of the work Elon Musk is doing because he's literally going out into that space, really
1:20:54.740 --> 1:20:56.260
exploring our universe.
1:20:56.260 --> 1:20:57.260
And it's wonderful.
1:20:57.260 --> 1:21:02.340
That is exactly why Elon Musk is so misunderstood, right?
1:21:02.340 --> 1:21:05.300
Misconstrued with some kind of pessimistic doomsayer.
1:21:05.300 --> 1:21:10.860
The reason he cares so much about AI safety is because he more than almost anyone else
1:21:10.860 --> 1:21:13.340
appreciates these amazing opportunities.
1:21:13.340 --> 1:21:16.340
It will squander if we wipe out here on Earth.
1:21:16.340 --> 1:21:22.740
We're not just going to wipe out the next generation, but all generations and this incredible
1:21:22.740 --> 1:21:25.580
opportunity that's out there and that would be really be a waste.
1:21:25.580 --> 1:21:32.740
And AI, for people who think that there would be better to do without technology, let me
1:21:32.740 --> 1:21:37.740
just mention that if we don't improve our technology, the question isn't whether humanity
1:21:37.740 --> 1:21:38.740
is going to go extinct.
1:21:38.740 --> 1:21:43.620
The question is just whether we're going to get taken out by the next big asteroid or
1:21:43.620 --> 1:21:49.540
the next super volcano or something else dumb that we could easily prevent with more tech,
1:21:49.540 --> 1:21:50.540
right?
1:21:50.540 --> 1:21:56.220
If we want life to flourish throughout the cosmos, AI is the key to it.
1:21:56.220 --> 1:22:04.780
As I mentioned in a lot of detail in my book, even many of the most inspired sci fi writers
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I feel have totally underestimated the opportunities for space travel, especially to other galaxies,
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because they weren't thinking about the possibility of AGI, which just makes it so much easier.
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Right.
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Yeah, so that goes to a view of AGI that enables our progress, that enables a better life.
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So that's a beautiful way to put it and something to strive for.
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So Max, thank you so much.
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Thank you for your time today.
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It's been awesome.
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Thank you so much.
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Thanks.
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Merci beaucoup.
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Thank you so much for your time today and thank you so much for your time and for your
1:22:49.100 --> 1:22:50.100
time.
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Thank you.
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Thank you.
1:22:52.100 --> 1:22:53.100
Bye.
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Bye.
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Bye.
1:22:55.100 --> 1:22:56.100
Bye.
1:22:56.100 --> 1:22:57.100
Bye.
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Bye.
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Bye.
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Bye.
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