Datasets:
File size: 42,648 Bytes
a3be5d0 |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750 751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 767 768 769 770 771 772 773 774 775 776 777 778 779 780 781 782 783 784 785 786 787 788 789 790 791 792 793 794 795 796 797 798 799 800 801 802 803 804 805 806 807 808 809 810 811 812 813 814 815 816 817 818 819 820 821 822 823 824 825 826 827 828 829 830 831 832 833 834 835 836 837 838 839 840 841 842 843 844 845 846 847 848 849 850 851 852 853 854 855 856 857 858 859 860 861 862 863 864 865 866 867 868 869 870 871 872 873 874 875 876 877 878 879 880 881 882 883 884 885 886 887 888 889 890 891 892 893 894 895 896 897 898 899 900 901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910 911 912 913 914 915 916 917 918 919 920 921 922 923 924 925 926 927 928 929 930 931 932 933 934 935 936 937 938 939 940 941 942 943 944 945 946 947 948 949 950 951 952 953 954 955 956 957 958 959 960 961 962 963 964 965 966 967 968 969 970 971 972 973 974 975 976 977 978 979 980 981 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 1000 1001 1002 1003 1004 1005 1006 1007 1008 1009 1010 1011 1012 1013 1014 1015 1016 1017 1018 1019 1020 1021 1022 1023 1024 1025 1026 1027 1028 1029 1030 1031 1032 1033 1034 1035 1036 1037 1038 1039 1040 1041 1042 1043 1044 1045 1046 1047 1048 1049 1050 1051 1052 1053 1054 1055 1056 1057 1058 1059 1060 1061 1062 1063 1064 1065 1066 1067 1068 1069 1070 1071 1072 1073 1074 1075 1076 1077 1078 1079 1080 1081 1082 1083 1084 1085 1086 1087 1088 1089 1090 1091 1092 1093 1094 1095 1096 1097 1098 1099 1100 1101 1102 1103 1104 1105 1106 1107 1108 1109 1110 1111 1112 1113 1114 1115 1116 1117 1118 1119 1120 1121 1122 1123 1124 1125 1126 1127 1128 1129 1130 1131 1132 1133 1134 1135 1136 1137 1138 1139 1140 1141 1142 1143 1144 1145 1146 1147 1148 1149 1150 1151 1152 1153 1154 1155 1156 1157 1158 1159 1160 1161 1162 1163 1164 1165 1166 1167 1168 1169 1170 1171 1172 1173 1174 1175 1176 1177 1178 1179 1180 1181 1182 1183 1184 1185 1186 1187 1188 1189 1190 1191 1192 1193 1194 1195 1196 1197 1198 1199 1200 1201 1202 1203 1204 1205 1206 1207 1208 1209 1210 1211 1212 1213 1214 1215 1216 1217 1218 1219 1220 1221 1222 1223 1224 1225 1226 1227 1228 1229 1230 1231 1232 1233 1234 1235 1236 1237 1238 1239 1240 1241 1242 1243 1244 1245 1246 1247 1248 1249 1250 1251 1252 1253 1254 1255 1256 1257 1258 1259 1260 1261 1262 1263 1264 1265 1266 1267 1268 1269 1270 1271 1272 1273 1274 1275 1276 1277 1278 1279 1280 1281 1282 1283 1284 1285 1286 1287 1288 1289 1290 1291 1292 1293 1294 1295 1296 1297 1298 1299 1300 1301 1302 1303 1304 1305 1306 1307 1308 1309 1310 1311 1312 1313 1314 1315 1316 1317 1318 1319 1320 1321 1322 1323 1324 1325 1326 1327 1328 1329 1330 1331 1332 1333 1334 1335 1336 1337 1338 1339 1340 1341 1342 1343 1344 1345 1346 1347 1348 1349 1350 1351 1352 1353 1354 1355 1356 1357 1358 1359 1360 1361 1362 1363 1364 1365 1366 1367 1368 1369 1370 1371 1372 1373 1374 1375 1376 1377 1378 1379 1380 1381 1382 1383 1384 1385 1386 1387 1388 1389 1390 1391 1392 1393 1394 1395 1396 1397 1398 1399 1400 1401 1402 1403 1404 1405 1406 1407 1408 1409 1410 1411 1412 1413 1414 1415 1416 1417 1418 1419 |
WEBVTT
00:00.000 --> 00:02.800
The following is a conversation with Eric Schmidt.
00:02.800 --> 00:07.640
He was the CEO of Google for ten years and a chairman for six more, guiding the company
00:07.640 --> 00:13.080
through an incredible period of growth and a series of world changing innovations.
00:13.080 --> 00:19.280
He is one of the most impactful leaders in the era of the internet and the powerful voice
00:19.280 --> 00:22.400
for the promise of technology in our society.
00:22.400 --> 00:27.760
It was truly an honor to speak with him as part of the MIT course on artificial general
00:27.760 --> 00:32.040
intelligence and the artificial intelligence podcast.
00:32.040 --> 00:37.120
And now here's my conversation with Eric Schmidt.
00:37.120 --> 00:40.840
What was the first moment when you fell in love with technology?
00:40.840 --> 00:47.080
I grew up in the 1960s as a boy where every boy wanted to be an astronaut and part of
00:47.080 --> 00:49.000
the space program.
00:49.000 --> 00:54.400
So like everyone else of my age, we would go out to the cow pasture behind my house,
00:54.400 --> 00:58.640
which was literally a cow pasture, and we would shoot model rockets off.
00:58.640 --> 01:00.200
And that I think is the beginning.
01:00.200 --> 01:05.680
And of course, generationally, today, it would be video games and all the amazing things
01:05.680 --> 01:09.280
that you can do online with computers.
01:09.280 --> 01:15.080
There's a transformative, inspiring aspect of science and math that maybe rockets would
01:15.080 --> 01:17.560
bring, would instill in individuals.
01:17.560 --> 01:21.720
You've mentioned yesterday that eighth grade math is where the journey through Mathematical
01:21.720 --> 01:24.520
University diverges from many people.
01:24.520 --> 01:27.080
It's this fork in the roadway.
01:27.080 --> 01:31.160
There's a professor of math at Berkeley, Edward Franco.
01:31.160 --> 01:32.720
I'm not sure if you're familiar with him.
01:32.720 --> 01:33.720
I am.
01:33.720 --> 01:35.400
He has written this amazing book.
01:35.400 --> 01:41.960
I recommend to everybody called Love and Math, two of my favorite words.
01:41.960 --> 01:49.680
He says that if painting was taught like math, then students would be asked to paint a fence,
01:49.680 --> 01:54.520
which is his analogy of essentially how math is taught, and you never get a chance to discover
01:54.520 --> 01:59.400
the beauty of the art of painting or the beauty of the art of math.
01:59.400 --> 02:05.240
So how, when, and where did you discover that beauty?
02:05.240 --> 02:12.040
I think what happens with people like myself is that your math enabled pretty early, and
02:12.040 --> 02:16.640
all of a sudden you discover that you can use that to discover new insights.
02:16.640 --> 02:22.120
The great scientists will all tell a story, the men and women who are fantastic today,
02:22.120 --> 02:25.560
that somewhere when they were in high school or in college, they discovered that they could
02:25.560 --> 02:30.760
discover something themselves, and that sense of building something, of having an impact
02:30.760 --> 02:35.520
that you own drives knowledge, acquisition, and learning.
02:35.520 --> 02:41.000
In my case, it was programming, and the notion that I could build things that had not existed
02:41.000 --> 02:46.560
that I had built, that it had my name on it, and this was before open source, but you could
02:46.560 --> 02:49.160
think of it as open source contributions.
02:49.160 --> 02:53.760
So today, if I were a 16 or 17 year old boy, I'm sure that I would aspire as a computer
02:53.760 --> 02:59.000
scientist to make a contribution like the open source heroes of the world today.
02:59.000 --> 03:03.760
That would be what would be driving me, and I'd be trying and learning and making mistakes,
03:03.760 --> 03:06.720
and so forth, in the ways that it works.
03:06.720 --> 03:12.360
The repository that GitHub represents and that open source libraries represent is an
03:12.360 --> 03:17.840
enormous bank of knowledge of all of the people who are doing that, and one of the lessons
03:17.840 --> 03:22.240
that I learned at Google was that the world is a very big place, and there's an awful
03:22.240 --> 03:26.360
lot of smart people, and an awful lot of them are underutilized.
03:26.360 --> 03:32.240
So here's an opportunity, for example, building parts of programs, building new ideas to contribute
03:32.240 --> 03:36.640
to the greater of society.
03:36.640 --> 03:41.000
So in that moment in the 70s, the inspiring moment where there was nothing, and then you
03:41.000 --> 03:44.800
created something through programming, that magical moment.
03:44.800 --> 03:50.360
So in 1975, I think you've created a program called Lex, which I especially like because
03:50.360 --> 03:51.560
my name is Lex.
03:51.560 --> 03:52.560
So thank you.
03:52.560 --> 03:58.240
Thank you for creating a brand that established a reputation that's long lasting reliable
03:58.240 --> 04:01.240
and has a big impact on the world and still used today.
04:01.240 --> 04:03.000
So thank you for that.
04:03.000 --> 04:11.880
But more seriously, in that time, in the 70s, as an engineer, personal computers were being
04:11.880 --> 04:12.880
born.
04:12.880 --> 04:17.800
Do you think you'd be able to predict the 80s, 90s, and the aughts of where computers
04:17.800 --> 04:18.800
would go?
04:18.800 --> 04:23.160
I'm sure I could not and would not have gotten it right.
04:23.160 --> 04:27.960
I was the beneficiary of the great work of many, many people who saw it clearer than I
04:27.960 --> 04:29.160
did.
04:29.160 --> 04:34.760
With Lex, I worked with a fellow named Michael Lesk, who was my supervisor, and he essentially
04:34.760 --> 04:39.400
helped me architect and deliver a system that's still in use today.
04:39.400 --> 04:43.800
After that, I worked at Xerox Palo Alto Research Center, where the Alto was invented, and the
04:43.800 --> 04:50.600
Alto is the predecessor of the modern personal computer, or Macintosh, and so forth.
04:50.600 --> 04:55.360
And the altos were very rare, and I had to drive an hour from Berkeley to go use them,
04:55.360 --> 05:01.160
but I made a point of skipping classes and doing whatever it took to have access to this
05:01.160 --> 05:02.480
extraordinary achievement.
05:02.480 --> 05:05.000
I knew that they were consequential.
05:05.000 --> 05:08.240
What I did not understand was scaling.
05:08.240 --> 05:12.960
I did not understand what would happen when you had 100 million as opposed to 100.
05:12.960 --> 05:17.360
And so since then, and I have learned the benefit of scale, I always look for things
05:17.360 --> 05:23.160
which are going to scale to platforms, so mobile phones, Android, all those things.
05:23.160 --> 05:27.560
There are many, many people in the world.
05:27.560 --> 05:28.560
People really have needs.
05:28.560 --> 05:32.600
They really will use these platforms, and you can build big businesses on top of them.
05:32.600 --> 05:33.600
So it's interesting.
05:33.600 --> 05:36.880
So when you see a piece of technology, now you think, what will this technology look
05:36.880 --> 05:39.080
like when it's in the hands of a billion people?
05:39.080 --> 05:40.160
That's right.
05:40.160 --> 05:46.520
So an example would be that the market is so competitive now that if you can't figure
05:46.520 --> 05:51.880
out a way for something to have a million users or a billion users, it probably is not
05:51.880 --> 05:57.280
going to be successful because something else will become the general platform, and your
05:57.280 --> 06:04.360
idea will become a lost idea or a specialized service with relatively few users.
06:04.360 --> 06:06.000
So it's a path to generality.
06:06.000 --> 06:07.720
It's a path to general platform use.
06:07.720 --> 06:09.400
It's a path to broad applicability.
06:09.400 --> 06:15.000
Now, there are plenty of good businesses that are tiny, so luxury goods, for example.
06:15.000 --> 06:20.360
But if you want to have an impact at scale, you have to look for things which are of
06:20.360 --> 06:25.200
common value, common pricing, common distribution, and solve common problems, the problems that
06:25.200 --> 06:26.200
everyone has.
06:26.200 --> 06:30.440
And by the way, people have lots of problems, information, medicine, health, education,
06:30.440 --> 06:31.440
and so forth.
06:31.440 --> 06:32.440
Work on those problems.
06:32.440 --> 06:40.240
Like you said, you're a big fan of the middle class because there's so many of them by definition.
06:40.240 --> 06:46.600
So any product, any thing that has a huge impact, it improves their lives is a great
06:46.600 --> 06:48.960
business decision and it's just good for society.
06:48.960 --> 06:53.520
And there's nothing wrong with starting off in the high end as long as you have a plan
06:53.520 --> 06:55.520
to get to the middle class.
06:55.520 --> 06:59.280
There's nothing wrong with starting with a specialized market in order to learn and to
06:59.280 --> 07:01.080
build and to fund things.
07:01.080 --> 07:04.520
So you start a luxury market to build a general purpose market.
07:04.520 --> 07:09.640
But if you define yourself as only a narrow market, someone else can come along with a
07:09.640 --> 07:14.320
general purpose market that can push you to the corner, can restrict the scale of operation,
07:14.320 --> 07:17.320
can force you to be a lesser impact than you might be.
07:17.320 --> 07:22.800
So it's very important to think in terms of broad businesses and broad impact, even if
07:22.800 --> 07:26.360
you start in a little corner somewhere.
07:26.360 --> 07:33.200
So as you look to the 70s, but also in the decades to come, and you saw computers, did
07:33.200 --> 07:40.240
you see them as tools or was there a little element of another entity?
07:40.240 --> 07:46.240
I remember a quote saying AI began with our dream to create the gods.
07:46.240 --> 07:51.520
Is there a feeling when you wrote that program that you were creating another entity, giving
07:51.520 --> 07:52.800
life to something?
07:52.800 --> 07:58.880
I wish I could say otherwise, but I simply found the technology platforms so exciting.
07:58.880 --> 08:00.400
That's what I was focused on.
08:00.400 --> 08:04.640
I think the majority of the people that I've worked with, and there are a few exceptions,
08:04.640 --> 08:09.960
Steve Jobs being an example, really saw this as a great technological play.
08:09.960 --> 08:15.520
I think relatively few of the technical people understood the scale of its impact.
08:15.520 --> 08:19.680
So I used NCP, which is a predecessor to TCPIP.
08:19.680 --> 08:21.240
It just made sense to connect things.
08:21.240 --> 08:26.240
We didn't think of it in terms of the internet, and then companies, and then Facebook, and
08:26.240 --> 08:29.200
then Twitter, and then politics, and so forth.
08:29.200 --> 08:30.800
We never did that build.
08:30.800 --> 08:32.920
We didn't have that vision.
08:32.920 --> 08:38.200
And I think most people, it's a rare person who can see compounding at scale.
08:38.200 --> 08:41.520
Most people can see, if you ask people to predict the future, they'll say, they'll give
08:41.520 --> 08:44.080
you an answer of six to nine months or 12 months.
08:44.080 --> 08:47.560
Because that's about as far as people can imagine.
08:47.560 --> 08:51.020
But there's an old saying, which actually was attributed to a professor at MIT a long
08:51.020 --> 08:58.120
time ago, that we overestimate what can be done in one year, and we underestimate what
08:58.120 --> 09:00.280
can be done in a decade.
09:00.280 --> 09:05.560
And there's a great deal of evidence that these core platforms at hardware and software
09:05.560 --> 09:07.800
take a decade.
09:07.800 --> 09:09.600
So think about self driving cars.
09:09.600 --> 09:12.160
Self driving cars were thought about in the 90s.
09:12.160 --> 09:17.160
Over projects around them, the first DARPA Durand Challenge was roughly 2004.
09:17.160 --> 09:19.760
So that's roughly 15 years ago.
09:19.760 --> 09:25.400
And today we have self driving cars operating in a city in Arizona, right, so 15 years.
09:25.400 --> 09:31.720
And we still have a ways to go before they're more generally available.
09:31.720 --> 09:33.840
So you've spoken about the importance.
09:33.840 --> 09:37.080
You just talked about predicting into the future.
09:37.080 --> 09:41.640
You've spoken about the importance of thinking five years ahead and having a plan for those
09:41.640 --> 09:42.640
five years.
09:42.640 --> 09:47.840
And the way to say it is that almost everybody has a one year plan.
09:47.840 --> 09:50.960
Almost no one has a proper five year plan.
09:50.960 --> 09:55.160
And the key thing to having a five year plan is having a model for what's going to happen
09:55.160 --> 09:57.000
under the underlying platforms.
09:57.000 --> 09:59.840
So here's an example.
09:59.840 --> 10:05.120
Computer Moore's Law, as we know it, the thing that powered improvements in CPUs has largely
10:05.120 --> 10:10.400
halted in its traditional shrinking mechanism, because the costs have just gotten so high.
10:10.400 --> 10:12.200
It's getting harder and harder.
10:12.200 --> 10:16.600
But there's plenty of algorithmic improvements and specialized hardware improvements.
10:16.600 --> 10:21.240
So you need to understand the nature of those improvements and where they'll go in order
10:21.240 --> 10:24.360
to understand how it will change the platform.
10:24.360 --> 10:28.000
In the area of network connectivity, what are the gains that are going to be possible
10:28.000 --> 10:29.480
in wireless?
10:29.480 --> 10:35.720
It looks like there's an enormous expansion of wireless connectivity at many different
10:35.720 --> 10:36.960
bands, right?
10:36.960 --> 10:40.520
And that we will primarily, historically, I've always thought that we were primarily
10:40.520 --> 10:45.040
going to be using fiber, but now it looks like we're going to be using fiber plus very
10:45.040 --> 10:51.560
powerful high bandwidth sort of short distance connectivity to bridge the last mile, right?
10:51.560 --> 10:53.100
That's an amazing achievement.
10:53.100 --> 10:56.880
If you know that, then you're going to build your systems differently.
10:56.880 --> 10:59.800
By the way, those networks have different latency properties, right?
10:59.800 --> 11:05.040
Because they're more symmetric, the algorithms feel faster for that reason.
11:05.040 --> 11:09.920
And so when you think about whether it's a fiber or just technologies in general.
11:09.920 --> 11:15.920
So there's this barber, wooden poem or quote that I really like.
11:15.920 --> 11:20.400
It's from the champions of the impossible rather than the slaves of the possible that
11:20.400 --> 11:23.280
evolution draws its creative force.
11:23.280 --> 11:27.840
So in predicting the next five years, I'd like to talk about the impossible and the
11:27.840 --> 11:28.840
possible.
11:28.840 --> 11:34.720
Well, and again, one of the great things about humanity is that we produce dreamers, right?
11:34.720 --> 11:37.760
We literally have people who have a vision and a dream.
11:37.760 --> 11:43.400
They are, if you will, disagreeable in the sense that they disagree with the, they disagree
11:43.400 --> 11:46.240
with what the sort of zeitgeist is.
11:46.240 --> 11:48.040
They say there is another way.
11:48.040 --> 11:49.040
They have a belief.
11:49.040 --> 11:50.320
They have a vision.
11:50.320 --> 11:56.560
If you look at science, science is always marked by such people who, who went against
11:56.560 --> 12:01.360
some conventional wisdom, collected the knowledge at the time and assembled it in a way that
12:01.360 --> 12:03.760
produced a powerful platform.
12:03.760 --> 12:11.120
And you've been amazingly honest about in an inspiring way about things you've been wrong
12:11.120 --> 12:14.800
about predicting and you've obviously been right about a lot of things.
12:14.800 --> 12:23.880
But in this kind of tension, how do you balance as a company in predicting the next five years,
12:23.880 --> 12:26.520
the impossible, planning for the impossible.
12:26.520 --> 12:32.720
So listening to those crazy dreamers, letting them do, letting them run away and make the
12:32.720 --> 12:38.760
impossible real, make it happen and slow, you know, that's how programmers often think
12:38.760 --> 12:44.800
and slowing things down and saying, well, this is the rational, this is the possible,
12:44.800 --> 12:49.160
the pragmatic, the, the dreamer versus the pragmatist.
12:49.160 --> 12:56.680
So it's helpful to have a model which encourages a predictable revenue stream as well as the
12:56.680 --> 12:58.720
ability to do new things.
12:58.720 --> 13:03.120
So in Google's case, we're big enough and well enough managed and so forth that we have
13:03.120 --> 13:06.600
a pretty good sense of what our revenue will be for the next year or two, at least for
13:06.600 --> 13:07.960
a while.
13:07.960 --> 13:13.720
And so we have enough cash generation that we can make bets.
13:13.720 --> 13:18.760
And indeed, Google has become alphabet so the corporation is organized around these
13:18.760 --> 13:19.760
bets.
13:19.760 --> 13:25.560
And these bets are in areas of fundamental importance to, to the world, whether it's
13:25.560 --> 13:31.920
digital intelligence, medical technology, self driving cars, connectivity through balloons,
13:31.920 --> 13:33.440
on and on and on.
13:33.440 --> 13:36.080
And there's more coming and more coming.
13:36.080 --> 13:41.480
So one way you could express this is that the current business is successful enough
13:41.480 --> 13:44.720
that we have the luxury of making bets.
13:44.720 --> 13:48.960
And another one that you could say is that we have the, the wisdom of being able to see
13:48.960 --> 13:53.920
that a corporate structure needs to be created to enhance the likelihood of the success of
13:53.920 --> 13:55.320
those bets.
13:55.320 --> 13:59.760
So we essentially turned ourselves into a conglomerate of bets.
13:59.760 --> 14:04.360
And then this underlying corporation Google, which is itself innovative.
14:04.360 --> 14:08.160
So in order to pull this off, you have to have a bunch of belief systems.
14:08.160 --> 14:12.080
And one of them is that you have to have bottoms up and tops down the bottoms up.
14:12.080 --> 14:13.600
We call 20% time.
14:13.600 --> 14:17.040
And the idea is that people can spend 20% of the time on whatever they want.
14:17.040 --> 14:21.960
And the top down is that our founders in particular have a keen eye on technology and they're
14:21.960 --> 14:24.000
reviewing things constantly.
14:24.000 --> 14:27.520
So an example would be they'll, they'll hear about an idea or I'll hear about something
14:27.520 --> 14:28.880
and it sounds interesting.
14:28.880 --> 14:34.920
Let's go visit them and then let's begin to assemble the pieces to see if that's possible.
14:34.920 --> 14:39.920
And if you do this long enough, you get pretty good at predicting what's likely to work.
14:39.920 --> 14:42.120
So that's, that's a beautiful balance that struck.
14:42.120 --> 14:44.560
Is this something that applies at all scale?
14:44.560 --> 14:53.960
So seems seems to be that the Sergei, again, 15 years ago, came up with a concept that
14:53.960 --> 14:59.040
called 10% of the budget should be on things that are unrelated.
14:59.040 --> 15:05.040
It was called 70, 20, 10, 70% of our time on core business, 20% on adjacent business
15:05.040 --> 15:06.920
and 10% on other.
15:06.920 --> 15:11.200
And he proved mathematically, of course, he's a brilliant mathematician, that you needed
15:11.200 --> 15:18.800
that 10% right to make the sum of the growth work and it turns out he was right.
15:18.800 --> 15:24.320
So getting into the world of artificial intelligence, you've, you've talked quite extensively and
15:24.320 --> 15:32.160
effectively to the impact in the near term, the positive impact of artificial intelligence,
15:32.160 --> 15:38.720
whether it's machine, especially machine learning in medical applications and education
15:38.720 --> 15:44.160
and just making information more accessible, right in the AI community, there is a kind
15:44.160 --> 15:49.520
of debate, so there's this shroud of uncertainty as we face this new world with artificial
15:49.520 --> 15:50.800
intelligence in it.
15:50.800 --> 15:57.560
And there is some people like Elon Musk, you've disagreed on at least on the degree of emphasis
15:57.560 --> 16:00.800
he places on the existential threat of AI.
16:00.800 --> 16:07.120
So I've spoken with Stuart Russell, Max Tagmark, who share Elon Musk's view, and Yoshio Benjio,
16:07.120 --> 16:09.240
Steven Pinker, who do not.
16:09.240 --> 16:13.320
And so there's a, there's a, there's a lot of very smart people who are thinking about
16:13.320 --> 16:17.280
this stuff, disagreeing, which is really healthy, of course.
16:17.280 --> 16:22.800
So what do you think is the healthiest way for the AI community to, and really for the
16:22.800 --> 16:30.880
general public to think about AI and the concern of the technology being mismanaged
16:30.880 --> 16:33.000
in some, in some kind of way.
16:33.000 --> 16:37.560
So the source of education for the general public has been robot killer movies.
16:37.560 --> 16:38.760
Right.
16:38.760 --> 16:44.840
And Terminator, et cetera, and the one thing I can assure you we're not building are those
16:44.840 --> 16:46.200
kinds of solutions.
16:46.200 --> 16:51.240
Furthermore, if they were to show up, someone would notice and unplug them, right?
16:51.240 --> 16:57.760
So as exciting as those movies are, and they're great movies, where the killer robots to start,
16:57.760 --> 17:00.520
we would find a way to stop them, right?
17:00.520 --> 17:04.320
So I'm not concerned about that.
17:04.320 --> 17:08.680
And much of this has to do with the timeframe of conversation.
17:08.680 --> 17:16.120
So you can imagine a situation a hundred years from now, when the human brain is fully understood,
17:16.120 --> 17:19.880
and the next generation and next generation of brilliant MIT scientists have figured
17:19.880 --> 17:25.960
all this out, we're going to have a large number of ethics questions, right, around science
17:25.960 --> 17:29.760
and thinking and robots and computers and so forth and so on.
17:29.760 --> 17:32.360
So it depends on the question of the timeframe.
17:32.360 --> 17:37.280
In the next five to 10 years, we're not facing those questions.
17:37.280 --> 17:42.000
What we're facing in the next five to 10 years is how do we spread this disruptive technology
17:42.000 --> 17:46.520
as broadly as possible to gain the maximum benefit of it?
17:46.520 --> 17:51.880
The primary benefit should be in healthcare and in education, healthcare because it's
17:51.880 --> 17:52.880
obvious.
17:52.880 --> 17:55.840
We're all the same, even though we somehow believe we're not.
17:55.840 --> 18:00.400
As a medical matter, the fact that we have big data about our health will save lives,
18:00.400 --> 18:05.520
allow us to deal with skin cancer and other cancers, ophthalmological problems.
18:05.520 --> 18:10.080
There's people working on psychological diseases and so forth using these techniques.
18:10.080 --> 18:11.680
I go on and on.
18:11.680 --> 18:15.840
The promise of AI in medicine is extraordinary.
18:15.840 --> 18:20.360
There are many, many companies and startups and funds and solutions and we will all live
18:20.360 --> 18:22.120
much better for that.
18:22.120 --> 18:25.680
The same argument in education.
18:25.680 --> 18:31.760
Can you imagine that for each generation of child and even adult, you have a tutor educator
18:31.760 --> 18:37.320
that's AI based, that's not a human but is properly trained, that helps you get smarter,
18:37.320 --> 18:41.440
helps you address your language difficulties or your math difficulties or what have you.
18:41.440 --> 18:43.400
Why don't we focus on those two?
18:43.400 --> 18:49.240
The gains societally of making humans smarter and healthier are enormous.
18:49.240 --> 18:54.000
Those translate for decades and decades and will all benefit from them.
18:54.000 --> 18:58.560
There are people who are working on AI safety, which is the issue that you're describing.
18:58.560 --> 19:02.920
There are conversations in the community that should there be such problems, what should
19:02.920 --> 19:04.360
the rules be like?
19:04.360 --> 19:09.360
Google, for example, has announced its policies with respect to AI safety, which I certainly
19:09.360 --> 19:14.320
support and I think most everybody would support and they make sense.
19:14.320 --> 19:19.760
It helps guide the research but the killer robots are not arriving this year and they're
19:19.760 --> 19:23.840
not even being built.
19:23.840 --> 19:31.040
On that line of thinking, you said the timescale, in this topic or other topics, have you found
19:31.040 --> 19:37.920
a useful, on the business side or the intellectual side, to think beyond 5, 10 years, to think
19:37.920 --> 19:39.480
50 years out?
19:39.480 --> 19:42.000
Has it ever been useful or productive?
19:42.000 --> 19:49.040
In our industry, there are essentially no examples of 50 year predictions that have been correct.
19:49.040 --> 19:54.320
Let's review AI, which was largely invented here at MIT and a couple of other universities
19:54.320 --> 19:57.840
in 1956, 1957, 1958.
19:57.840 --> 20:01.800
The original claims were a decade or two.
20:01.800 --> 20:08.040
When I was a PhD student, I studied AI a bit and it entered during my looking at it a period
20:08.040 --> 20:13.880
which is known as AI winter, which went on for about 30 years, which is a whole generation
20:13.880 --> 20:18.800
of scientists and a whole group of people who didn't make a lot of progress because the
20:18.800 --> 20:22.160
algorithms had not improved and the computers had not improved.
20:22.160 --> 20:26.160
It took some brilliant mathematicians, starting with a fellow named Jeff Hinton at Toronto
20:26.160 --> 20:33.120
in Montreal, who basically invented this deep learning model which empowers us today.
20:33.120 --> 20:40.400
The seminal work there was 20 years ago and in the last 10 years, it's become popularized.
20:40.400 --> 20:43.520
Think about the time frames for that level of discovery.
20:43.520 --> 20:46.080
It's very hard to predict.
20:46.080 --> 20:50.240
Many people think that we'll be flying around in the equivalent of flying cars.
20:50.240 --> 20:51.240
Who knows?
20:51.240 --> 20:56.680
My own view, if I want to go out on a limb, is to say that we know a couple of things
20:56.680 --> 20:58.000
about 50 years from now.
20:58.000 --> 21:00.480
We know that there'll be more people alive.
21:00.480 --> 21:04.000
We know that we'll have to have platforms that are more sustainable because the earth
21:04.000 --> 21:09.440
is limited in the ways we all know and that the kind of platforms that are going to get
21:09.440 --> 21:13.000
billed will be consistent with the principles that I've described.
21:13.000 --> 21:17.560
They will be much more empowering of individuals, they'll be much more sensitive to the ecology
21:17.560 --> 21:20.440
because they have to be, they just have to be.
21:20.440 --> 21:24.160
I also think that humans are going to be a great deal smarter and I think they're going
21:24.160 --> 21:28.320
to be a lot smarter because of the tools that I've discussed with you and of course people
21:28.320 --> 21:29.320
will live longer.
21:29.320 --> 21:32.080
Life extension is continuing apace.
21:32.080 --> 21:36.840
A baby born today has a reasonable chance of living to 100, which is pretty exciting.
21:36.840 --> 21:40.760
It's well past the 21st century, so we better take care of them.
21:40.760 --> 21:46.160
You mentioned interesting statistic on some very large percentage, 60, 70% of people may
21:46.160 --> 21:48.360
live in cities.
21:48.360 --> 21:53.880
Today more than half the world lives in cities and one of the great stories of humanity in
21:53.880 --> 21:57.560
the last 20 years has been the rural to urban migration.
21:57.560 --> 22:02.720
This has occurred in the United States, it's occurred in Europe, it's occurring in Asia
22:02.720 --> 22:04.760
and it's occurring in Africa.
22:04.760 --> 22:09.280
When people move to cities, the cities get more crowded, but believe it or not their health
22:09.280 --> 22:15.560
gets better, their productivity gets better, their IQ and educational capabilities improve,
22:15.560 --> 22:19.840
so it's good news that people are moving to cities, but we have to make them livable
22:19.840 --> 22:22.800
and safe.
22:22.800 --> 22:28.240
So you, first of all, you are, but you've also worked with some of the greatest leaders
22:28.240 --> 22:30.180
in the history of tech.
22:30.180 --> 22:37.080
What insights do you draw from the difference in leadership styles of yourself, Steve Jobs,
22:37.080 --> 22:45.320
Elon Musk, Larry Page, now the new CEO, Sandra Pichai and others from the, I would say, calm
22:45.320 --> 22:49.600
sages to the mad geniuses?
22:49.600 --> 22:53.880
One of the things that I learned as a young executive is that there's no single formula
22:53.880 --> 22:56.200
for leadership.
22:56.200 --> 23:00.080
They try to teach one, but that's not how it really works.
23:00.080 --> 23:04.360
There are people who just understand what they need to do and they need to do it quickly.
23:04.360 --> 23:06.800
Those people are often entrepreneurs.
23:06.800 --> 23:09.080
They just know and they move fast.
23:09.080 --> 23:13.400
There are other people who are systems thinkers and planners, that's more who I am, somewhat
23:13.400 --> 23:18.760
more conservative, more thorough in execution, a little bit more risk averse.
23:18.760 --> 23:24.120
There's also people who are sort of slightly insane, right, in the sense that they are
23:24.120 --> 23:29.040
emphatic and charismatic and they feel it and they drive it and so forth.
23:29.040 --> 23:31.440
There's no single formula to success.
23:31.440 --> 23:35.320
There is one thing that unifies all of the people that you named, which is very high
23:35.320 --> 23:41.240
intelligence, at the end of the day, the thing that characterizes all of them is that they
23:41.240 --> 23:46.360
saw the world quicker, faster, they processed information faster, they didn't necessarily
23:46.360 --> 23:50.160
make the right decisions all the time, but they were on top of it.
23:50.160 --> 23:54.600
The other thing that's interesting about all those people is they all started young.
23:54.600 --> 23:58.560
Think about Steve Jobs starting Apple roughly at 18 or 19.
23:58.560 --> 24:01.840
Think about Bill Gates starting at roughly 2021.
24:01.840 --> 24:07.040
Think about by the time they were 30, Mark Zuckerberg, a more good example at 1920.
24:07.040 --> 24:13.720
By the time they were 30, they had 10 years, at 30 years old, they had 10 years of experience
24:13.720 --> 24:19.920
of dealing with people and products and shipments and the press and business and so forth.
24:19.920 --> 24:24.480
It's incredible how much experience they had compared to the rest of us who were busy getting
24:24.480 --> 24:25.480
our PhDs.
24:25.480 --> 24:26.480
Yes, exactly.
24:26.480 --> 24:32.760
We should celebrate these people because they've just had more life experience and that helps
24:32.760 --> 24:34.520
inform the judgment.
24:34.520 --> 24:41.360
At the end of the day, when you're at the top of these organizations, all the easy questions
24:41.360 --> 24:43.680
have been dealt with.
24:43.680 --> 24:45.840
How should we design the buildings?
24:45.840 --> 24:48.400
Where should we put the colors on our product?
24:48.400 --> 24:51.440
What should the box look like?
24:51.440 --> 24:55.520
The problems, that's why it's so interesting to be in these rooms, the problems that they
24:55.520 --> 25:00.200
face in terms of the way they operate, the way they deal with their employees, their
25:00.200 --> 25:04.160
customers, their innovation are profoundly challenging.
25:04.160 --> 25:09.360
Each of the companies is demonstrably different culturally.
25:09.360 --> 25:11.800
They are not, in fact, cut of the same.
25:11.800 --> 25:16.680
They behave differently based on input, their internal cultures are different, their compensation
25:16.680 --> 25:24.920
schemes are different, their values are different, so there's proof that diversity works.
25:24.920 --> 25:33.440
So when faced with a tough decision, in need of advice, it's been said that the best thing
25:33.440 --> 25:39.840
one can do is to find the best person in the world who can give that advice and find a
25:39.840 --> 25:44.880
way to be in a room with them, one on one and ask.
25:44.880 --> 25:51.920
So here we are, and let me ask in a long winded way, I wrote this down, in 1998 there were
25:51.920 --> 26:01.960
many good search engines, Lycos, Excite, Altavista, Infoseek, AskJeeves maybe, Yahoo even.
26:01.960 --> 26:07.040
So Google stepped in and disrupted everything, they disrupted the nature of search, the nature
26:07.040 --> 26:12.040
of our access to information, the way we discover new knowledge.
26:12.040 --> 26:19.120
So now it's 2018, actually 20 years later, there are many good personal AI assistants,
26:19.120 --> 26:22.360
including of course the best from Google.
26:22.360 --> 26:28.720
So you've spoken in medical and education, the impact of such an AI assistant could bring.
26:28.720 --> 26:34.920
So we arrive at this question, so it's a personal one for me, but I hope my situation represents
26:34.920 --> 26:41.200
that of many other, as we said, dreamers and the crazy engineers.
26:41.200 --> 26:46.680
So my whole life, I've dreamed of creating such an AI assistant.
26:46.680 --> 26:50.800
Every step I've taken has been towards that goal, now I'm a research scientist in Human
26:50.800 --> 26:58.920
Senate AI here at MIT, so the next step for me as I sit here, facing my passion, is to
26:58.920 --> 27:04.880
do what Larry and Sergey did in 1998, this simple start up.
27:04.880 --> 27:10.640
And so here's my simple question, given the low odds of success, the timing and luck required,
27:10.640 --> 27:14.280
the countless other factors that can't be controlled or predicted, which is all the
27:14.280 --> 27:16.560
things that Larry and Sergey faced.
27:16.560 --> 27:23.080
Is there some calculation, some strategy to follow in this step, or do you simply follow
27:23.080 --> 27:26.560
the passion just because there's no other choice?
27:26.560 --> 27:32.880
I think the people who are in universities are always trying to study the extraordinarily
27:32.880 --> 27:37.360
chaotic nature of innovation and entrepreneurship.
27:37.360 --> 27:42.880
My answer is that they didn't have that conversation, they just did it.
27:42.880 --> 27:48.840
They sensed a moment when, in the case of Google, there was all of this data that needed
27:48.840 --> 27:53.940
to be organized and they had a better algorithm, they had invented a better way.
27:53.940 --> 28:01.040
So today with Human Senate AI, which is your area of research, there must be new approaches.
28:01.040 --> 28:07.320
It's such a big field, there must be new approaches, different from what we and others are doing.
28:07.320 --> 28:12.320
There must be startups to fund, there must be research projects to try, there must be
28:12.320 --> 28:15.200
graduate students to work on new approaches.
28:15.200 --> 28:19.120
Here at MIT, there are people who are looking at learning from the standpoint of looking
28:19.120 --> 28:23.840
at child learning, how do children learn starting at each one?
28:23.840 --> 28:25.560
And the work is fantastic.
28:25.560 --> 28:30.120
Those approaches are different from the approach that most people are taking.
28:30.120 --> 28:33.980
Perhaps that's a bet that you should make, or perhaps there's another one.
28:33.980 --> 28:40.200
But at the end of the day, the successful entrepreneurs are not as crazy as they sound.
28:40.200 --> 28:43.200
They see an opportunity based on what's happened.
28:43.200 --> 28:45.400
Let's use Uber as an example.
28:45.400 --> 28:49.840
As Travis sells the story, he and his cofounder were sitting in Paris and they had this idea
28:49.840 --> 28:52.160
because they couldn't get a cab.
28:52.160 --> 28:56.800
And they said, we have smartphones and the rest is history.
28:56.800 --> 29:04.040
So what's the equivalent of that Travis Eiffel Tower, where is a cab moment that you could,
29:04.040 --> 29:08.800
as an entrepreneur, take advantage of, whether it's in Human Senate AI or something else?
29:08.800 --> 29:11.480
That's the next great start up.
29:11.480 --> 29:13.760
And the psychology of that moment.
29:13.760 --> 29:20.120
So when Sergey and Larry talk about, and listen to a few interviews, it's very nonchalant.
29:20.120 --> 29:25.280
Well, here's the very fascinating web data.
29:25.280 --> 29:29.080
And here's an algorithm we have for, you know, we just kind of want to play around with that
29:29.080 --> 29:30.080
data.
29:30.080 --> 29:32.520
And it seems like that's a really nice way to organize this data.
29:32.520 --> 29:38.000
Well, I should say what happened, remember, is that they were graduate students at Stanford
29:38.000 --> 29:41.320
and they thought this is interesting, so they built a search engine and they kept it in
29:41.320 --> 29:43.400
their room.
29:43.400 --> 29:47.520
And they had to get power from the room next door because they were using too much power
29:47.520 --> 29:48.520
in the room.
29:48.520 --> 29:51.640
So they ran an extension cord over.
29:51.640 --> 29:55.360
And then they went and they found a house and they had Google World headquarters of
29:55.360 --> 29:57.600
five people to start the company.
29:57.600 --> 30:02.560
And they raised $100,000 from Andy Bechtelstein, who was the sun founder to do this, and Dave
30:02.560 --> 30:04.520
Chariton and a few others.
30:04.520 --> 30:11.960
The point is their beginnings were very simple, but they were based on a powerful insight.
30:11.960 --> 30:14.320
That is a replicable model for any startup.
30:14.320 --> 30:16.520
It has to be a powerful insight.
30:16.520 --> 30:17.680
The beginnings are simple.
30:17.680 --> 30:19.960
And there has to be an innovation.
30:19.960 --> 30:24.280
In Larry and Sergey's case, it was PageRank, which was a brilliant idea, one of the most
30:24.280 --> 30:26.880
cited papers in the world today.
30:26.880 --> 30:29.880
What's the next one?
30:29.880 --> 30:37.280
So you're one of, if I may say, richest people in the world, and yet it seems that money
30:37.280 --> 30:43.200
is simply a side effect of your passions and not an inherent goal.
30:43.200 --> 30:48.360
But it's a, you're a fascinating person to ask.
30:48.360 --> 30:55.080
So much of our society at the individual level and at the company level and its nations is
30:55.080 --> 30:58.920
driven by the desire for wealth.
30:58.920 --> 31:01.280
What do you think about this drive?
31:01.280 --> 31:07.000
And what have you learned about, if I may romanticize the notion, the meaning of life,
31:07.000 --> 31:10.520
having achieved success on so many dimensions?
31:10.520 --> 31:16.960
There have been many studies of human happiness and above some threshold, which is typically
31:16.960 --> 31:23.600
relatively low for this conversation, there's no difference in happiness about money.
31:23.600 --> 31:30.120
The happiness is correlated with meaning and purpose, a sense of family, a sense of impact.
31:30.120 --> 31:34.440
So if you organize your life, assuming you have enough to get around and have a nice
31:34.440 --> 31:40.400
home and so forth, you'll be far happier if you figure out what you care about and work
31:40.400 --> 31:41.800
on that.
31:41.800 --> 31:44.120
It's often being in service to others.
31:44.120 --> 31:47.840
It's a great deal of evidence that people are happiest when they're serving others
31:47.840 --> 31:49.640
and not themselves.
31:49.640 --> 31:57.480
This goes directly against the sort of press induced excitement about powerful and wealthy
31:57.480 --> 32:01.840
leaders of one kind and indeed, these are consequential people.
32:01.840 --> 32:06.720
But if you are in a situation where you've been very fortunate as I have, you also have
32:06.720 --> 32:12.160
to take that as a responsibility and you have to basically work both to educate others and
32:12.160 --> 32:16.760
give them that opportunity, but also use that wealth to advance human society.
32:16.760 --> 32:20.440
In my case, I'm particularly interested in using the tools of artificial intelligence
32:20.440 --> 32:22.800
and machine learning to make society better.
32:22.800 --> 32:24.000
I've mentioned education.
32:24.000 --> 32:29.040
I've mentioned inequality and middle class and things like this, all of which are a passion
32:29.040 --> 32:30.160
of mine.
32:30.160 --> 32:31.920
It doesn't matter what you do.
32:31.920 --> 32:36.560
It matters that you believe in it, that it's important to you and that your life will be
32:36.560 --> 32:40.480
far more satisfying if you spend your life doing that.
32:40.480 --> 32:45.320
I think there's no better place to end than a discussion of the meaning of life.
32:45.320 --> 32:46.320
Eric, thank you so much.
32:46.320 --> 32:47.320
Thank you very much.
32:47.320 --> 33:16.320
Thank you.
|