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+WEBVTT
+
+00:00.000 --> 00:02.960
+ The following is a conversation with Kai Fu Li.
+
+00:02.960 --> 00:06.520
+ He's the chairman and CEO of Sinovation Ventures
+
+00:06.520 --> 00:10.560
+ that manages a $2 billion dual currency investment fund
+
+00:10.560 --> 00:13.160
+ with a focus on developing the next generation
+
+00:13.160 --> 00:15.440
+ of Chinese high tech companies.
+
+00:15.440 --> 00:17.840
+ He's the former president of Google China
+
+00:17.840 --> 00:20.880
+ and the founder of what is now called Microsoft Research
+
+00:20.880 --> 00:24.160
+ Asia, an institute that trained many
+
+00:24.160 --> 00:26.520
+ of the artificial intelligence leaders in China,
+
+00:26.520 --> 00:32.080
+ including CTOs or AI execs at Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba,
+
+00:32.080 --> 00:34.840
+ Lenovo, and Huawei.
+
+00:34.840 --> 00:38.520
+ He was named one of the 100 most influential people
+
+00:38.520 --> 00:40.680
+ in the world by Time Magazine.
+
+00:40.680 --> 00:43.880
+ He's the author of seven bestselling books in Chinese
+
+00:43.880 --> 00:47.080
+ and most recently, the New York Times bestseller called
+
+00:47.080 --> 00:50.600
+ AI Superpowers, China, Silicon Valley,
+
+00:50.600 --> 00:52.760
+ and the New World Order.
+
+00:52.760 --> 00:57.200
+ He has unparalleled experience in working across major tech
+
+00:57.200 --> 01:00.120
+ companies and governments on applications of AI.
+
+01:00.120 --> 01:02.440
+ And so he has a unique perspective
+
+01:02.440 --> 01:05.080
+ on global innovation in the future of AI
+
+01:05.080 --> 01:09.000
+ that I think is important to listen to and think about.
+
+01:09.000 --> 01:11.960
+ This is the Artificial Intelligence Podcast.
+
+01:11.960 --> 01:15.240
+ If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube and iTunes,
+
+01:15.240 --> 01:18.880
+ support it on Patreon, or simply connect with me on Twitter
+
+01:18.880 --> 01:21.040
+ at Lex Freedman.
+
+01:21.040 --> 01:26.120
+ And now, here's my conversation with Kaifu Li.
+
+01:26.120 --> 01:29.440
+ I immigrated from Russia to US when I was 13.
+
+01:29.440 --> 01:32.480
+ You immigrated to US at about the same age.
+
+01:32.480 --> 01:35.920
+ The Russian people, the American people, the Chinese people,
+
+01:35.920 --> 01:39.440
+ each have a certain soul, a spirit,
+
+01:39.440 --> 01:42.080
+ that permeates throughout the generations.
+
+01:42.080 --> 01:45.120
+ So maybe it's a little bit of a poetic question,
+
+01:45.120 --> 01:49.240
+ but could you describe your sense of what
+
+01:49.240 --> 01:52.080
+ defines the Chinese soul?
+
+01:52.080 --> 01:56.160
+ I think the Chinese soul of people today, right,
+
+01:56.160 --> 02:02.000
+ we're talking about people who have had centuries of burden
+
+02:02.000 --> 02:05.240
+ because of the poverty that the country has gone through
+
+02:05.240 --> 02:10.560
+ and suddenly shined with hope of prosperity
+
+02:10.560 --> 02:13.440
+ in the past 40 years as China opened up
+
+02:13.440 --> 02:16.440
+ and embraced market economy.
+
+02:16.440 --> 02:20.200
+ And undoubtedly, there are two sets of pressures
+
+02:20.200 --> 02:24.160
+ on the people, that of the tradition,
+
+02:24.160 --> 02:28.040
+ that of facing difficult situations,
+
+02:28.040 --> 02:31.160
+ and that of hope of wanting to be the first
+
+02:31.160 --> 02:33.840
+ to become successful and wealthy,
+
+02:33.840 --> 02:38.360
+ so that it's a very strong hunger and strong desire
+
+02:38.360 --> 02:41.160
+ and strong work ethic that drives China forward.
+
+02:41.160 --> 02:43.960
+ And is there roots to not just this generation,
+
+02:43.960 --> 02:47.880
+ but before, that's deeper than just
+
+02:47.880 --> 02:50.080
+ the new economic developments?
+
+02:50.080 --> 02:52.520
+ Is there something that's unique to China
+
+02:52.520 --> 02:54.960
+ that you could speak to that's in the people?
+
+02:54.960 --> 02:56.000
+ Yeah.
+
+02:56.000 --> 03:00.280
+ Well, the Chinese tradition is about excellence,
+
+03:00.280 --> 03:02.680
+ dedication, and results.
+
+03:02.680 --> 03:07.240
+ And the Chinese exams and study subjects in schools
+
+03:07.240 --> 03:11.080
+ have traditionally started from memorizing 10,000 characters,
+
+03:11.080 --> 03:13.600
+ not an easy task to start with.
+
+03:13.600 --> 03:17.640
+ And further by memorizing historic philosophers,
+
+03:17.640 --> 03:19.000
+ literature, poetry.
+
+03:19.000 --> 03:22.480
+ So it really is probably the strongest road
+
+03:22.480 --> 03:26.920
+ learning mechanism created to make sure people had good memory
+
+03:26.920 --> 03:30.080
+ and remembered things extremely well.
+
+03:30.080 --> 03:33.720
+ That, I think, at the same time suppresses
+
+03:33.720 --> 03:37.360
+ the breakthrough innovation.
+
+03:37.360 --> 03:42.520
+ And also enhances the speed execution get results.
+
+03:42.520 --> 03:47.400
+ And that, I think, characterizes the historic basis of China.
+
+03:47.400 --> 03:49.160
+ That's interesting, because there's echoes of that
+
+03:49.160 --> 03:52.080
+ in Russian education as well as rote memorization.
+
+03:52.080 --> 03:53.800
+ So you memorize a lot of poetry.
+
+03:53.800 --> 03:59.240
+ I mean, there's just an emphasis on perfection in all forms
+
+03:59.240 --> 04:02.240
+ that's not conducive to perhaps what you're speaking to,
+
+04:02.240 --> 04:03.640
+ which is creativity.
+
+04:03.640 --> 04:05.640
+ But you think that kind of education
+
+04:05.640 --> 04:09.040
+ holds back the innovative spirit that you
+
+04:09.040 --> 04:10.960
+ might see in the United States?
+
+04:10.960 --> 04:14.840
+ Well, it holds back the breakthrough innovative spirit
+
+04:14.840 --> 04:16.480
+ that we see in the United States.
+
+04:16.480 --> 04:21.880
+ But it does not hold back the valuable execution oriented,
+
+04:21.880 --> 04:26.320
+ result oriented value creating engines, which we see China
+
+04:26.320 --> 04:27.960
+ being very successful.
+
+04:27.960 --> 04:32.320
+ So is there a difference between a Chinese AI engineer
+
+04:32.320 --> 04:35.600
+ today and an American AI engineer perhaps rooted
+
+04:35.600 --> 04:38.320
+ in the culture that we just talked about or the education
+
+04:38.320 --> 04:41.160
+ or the very soul of the people or no?
+
+04:41.160 --> 04:43.720
+ And what would your advice be to each
+
+04:43.720 --> 04:45.520
+ if there's a difference?
+
+04:45.520 --> 04:47.120
+ Well, there's a lot that's similar,
+
+04:47.120 --> 04:51.240
+ because AI is about mastering sciences,
+
+04:51.240 --> 04:54.880
+ about using known technologies and trying new things.
+
+04:54.880 --> 04:59.760
+ But it's also about picking from many parts of possible networks
+
+04:59.760 --> 05:02.920
+ to use and different types of parameters to tune.
+
+05:02.920 --> 05:05.280
+ And that part is somewhat rote.
+
+05:05.280 --> 05:09.040
+ And it is also, as anyone who's built AI products,
+
+05:09.040 --> 05:12.680
+ can tell you a lot about cleansing the data.
+
+05:12.680 --> 05:15.200
+ Because AI runs better with more data.
+
+05:15.200 --> 05:20.160
+ And data is generally unstructured, errorful,
+
+05:20.160 --> 05:22.360
+ and unclean.
+
+05:22.360 --> 05:26.280
+ And the effort to clean the data is immense.
+
+05:26.280 --> 05:32.280
+ So I think the better part of the American AI engineering
+
+05:32.280 --> 05:36.840
+ process is to try new things, to do things people haven't done
+
+05:36.840 --> 05:41.840
+ before, and to use technology to solve most, if not all,
+
+05:41.840 --> 05:43.480
+ problems.
+
+05:43.480 --> 05:47.160
+ So to make the algorithm work despite not so great data,
+
+05:47.160 --> 05:50.680
+ find error tolerant ways to deal with the data.
+
+05:50.680 --> 05:55.960
+ The Chinese way would be to basically enumerate,
+
+05:55.960 --> 05:58.560
+ to the fullest extent, all the possible ways
+
+05:58.560 --> 06:01.000
+ by a lot of machines, try lots of different ways
+
+06:01.000 --> 06:05.320
+ to get it to work, and spend a lot of resources and money
+
+06:05.320 --> 06:07.720
+ and time cleaning up data.
+
+06:07.720 --> 06:11.880
+ That means the AI engineer may be writing data cleansing
+
+06:11.880 --> 06:15.600
+ algorithms, working with thousands of people
+
+06:15.600 --> 06:19.160
+ who label or correct or do things with the data.
+
+06:19.160 --> 06:21.920
+ That is the incredible hard work that
+
+06:21.920 --> 06:24.040
+ might lead to better results.
+
+06:24.040 --> 06:28.240
+ So the Chinese engineer would rely on and ask for more and more
+
+06:28.240 --> 06:31.120
+ data and find ways to cleanse them and make them work
+
+06:31.120 --> 06:34.200
+ in the system, and probably less time thinking
+
+06:34.200 --> 06:39.320
+ about new algorithms that can overcome data or other issues.
+
+06:39.320 --> 06:40.560
+ So where's your intuition?
+
+06:40.560 --> 06:43.160
+ What do you think the biggest impact the next 10 years
+
+06:43.160 --> 06:43.920
+ lies?
+
+06:43.920 --> 06:47.120
+ Is it in some breakthrough algorithms?
+
+06:47.120 --> 06:53.920
+ Or is it in just this at scale rigor, a rigorous approach
+
+06:53.920 --> 06:57.120
+ to data, cleaning data, organizing data
+
+06:57.120 --> 06:58.440
+ onto the same algorithms?
+
+06:58.440 --> 07:02.600
+ What do you think the big impact in the applied world is?
+
+07:02.600 --> 07:04.560
+ Well, if you're really in the company
+
+07:04.560 --> 07:08.400
+ and you have to deliver results, using known techniques
+
+07:08.400 --> 07:12.240
+ and enhancing data seems like the more expedient approach
+
+07:12.240 --> 07:15.640
+ that's very low risk and likely to generate
+
+07:15.640 --> 07:17.200
+ better and better results.
+
+07:17.200 --> 07:20.520
+ And that's why the Chinese approach has done quite well.
+
+07:20.520 --> 07:24.240
+ Now, there are a lot of more challenging startups
+
+07:24.240 --> 07:28.440
+ and problems, such as autonomous vehicles,
+
+07:28.440 --> 07:32.560
+ medical diagnosis, that existing algorithms probably
+
+07:32.560 --> 07:34.240
+ won't solve.
+
+07:34.240 --> 07:38.680
+ And that would put the Chinese approach more challenged
+
+07:38.680 --> 07:43.720
+ and give them more breakthrough innovation approach, more
+
+07:43.720 --> 07:45.440
+ of an edge on those kinds of problems.
+
+07:45.440 --> 07:47.040
+ So let me talk to that a little more.
+
+07:47.040 --> 07:50.960
+ So my intuition, personally, is that data
+
+07:50.960 --> 07:53.680
+ can take us extremely far.
+
+07:53.680 --> 07:56.480
+ So you brought up autonomous vehicles and medical diagnosis.
+
+07:56.480 --> 08:00.080
+ So your intuition is that huge amounts of data
+
+08:00.080 --> 08:04.000
+ might not be able to completely help us solve that problem.
+
+08:04.000 --> 08:04.600
+ Right.
+
+08:04.600 --> 08:08.080
+ So breaking that down further, autonomous vehicle,
+
+08:08.080 --> 08:10.080
+ I think huge amounts of data probably
+
+08:10.080 --> 08:13.360
+ will solve trucks driving on highways, which
+
+08:13.360 --> 08:15.640
+ will deliver significant value.
+
+08:15.640 --> 08:19.320
+ And China will probably lead in that.
+
+08:19.320 --> 08:24.880
+ And full L5 autonomous is likely to require new technologies
+
+08:24.880 --> 08:26.320
+ we don't yet know.
+
+08:26.320 --> 08:30.320
+ And that might require academia and great industrial research,
+
+08:30.320 --> 08:32.480
+ both innovating and working together.
+
+08:32.480 --> 08:35.360
+ And in that case, US has an advantage.
+
+08:35.360 --> 08:37.040
+ So the interesting question there is,
+
+08:37.040 --> 08:39.280
+ I don't know if you're familiar on the autonomous vehicle
+
+08:39.280 --> 08:43.480
+ space and the developments with Tesla and Elon Musk,
+
+08:43.480 --> 08:49.400
+ where they are, in fact, a full steam ahead
+
+08:49.400 --> 08:53.480
+ into this mysterious, complex world of full autonomy, L5,
+
+08:53.480 --> 08:55.080
+ L4, L5.
+
+08:55.080 --> 08:58.800
+ And they're trying to solve that purely with data.
+
+08:58.800 --> 09:00.800
+ So the same kind of thing that you're saying
+
+09:00.800 --> 09:03.200
+ is just for highway, which is what a lot of people
+
+09:03.200 --> 09:07.200
+ share your intuition, they're trying to solve with data.
+
+09:07.200 --> 09:09.320
+ It's just to linger on that moment further.
+
+09:09.320 --> 09:13.600
+ Do you think possible for them to achieve success
+
+09:13.600 --> 09:17.040
+ with simply just a huge amount of this training
+
+09:17.040 --> 09:20.440
+ on edge cases, on difficult cases in urban environments,
+
+09:20.440 --> 09:22.840
+ not just highway and so on?
+
+09:22.840 --> 09:24.480
+ I think they'll be very hard.
+
+09:24.480 --> 09:27.680
+ One could characterize Tesla's approach as kind
+
+09:27.680 --> 09:31.600
+ of a Chinese strength approach, gather all the data you can,
+
+09:31.600 --> 09:34.000
+ and hope that will overcome the problems.
+
+09:34.000 --> 09:38.480
+ But in autonomous driving, clearly a lot of the decisions
+
+09:38.480 --> 09:41.480
+ aren't merely solved by aggregating data
+
+09:41.480 --> 09:43.520
+ and having feedback loop.
+
+09:43.520 --> 09:48.040
+ There are things that are more akin to human thinking.
+
+09:48.040 --> 09:51.680
+ And how would those be integrated and built?
+
+09:51.680 --> 09:54.000
+ There has not yet been a lot of success
+
+09:54.000 --> 09:57.200
+ integrating human intelligence or, you know,
+
+09:57.200 --> 09:58.800
+ colored expert systems, if you will,
+
+09:58.800 --> 10:02.960
+ even though that's a taboo word with the machine learning.
+
+10:02.960 --> 10:05.600
+ And the integration of the two types of thinking
+
+10:05.600 --> 10:07.840
+ hasn't yet been demonstrated.
+
+10:07.840 --> 10:09.600
+ And the question is, how much can you
+
+10:09.600 --> 10:12.440
+ push a purely machine learning approach?
+
+10:12.440 --> 10:15.480
+ And of course, Tesla also has an additional constraint
+
+10:15.480 --> 10:18.520
+ that they don't have all the sensors.
+
+10:18.520 --> 10:21.120
+ I know that they think it's foolish to use LIDARS,
+
+10:21.120 --> 10:25.920
+ but that's clearly a one less, very valuable and reliable
+
+10:25.920 --> 10:29.200
+ source of input that they're foregoing, which
+
+10:29.200 --> 10:32.440
+ may also have consequences.
+
+10:32.440 --> 10:33.840
+ I think the advantage, of course,
+
+10:33.840 --> 10:37.040
+ is capturing data that no one has ever seen before.
+
+10:37.040 --> 10:41.040
+ And in some cases, such as computer vision and speech
+
+10:41.040 --> 10:44.800
+ recognition, I have seen Chinese companies accumulate data
+
+10:44.800 --> 10:47.320
+ that's not seen anywhere in the Western world,
+
+10:47.320 --> 10:50.200
+ and they have delivered superior results.
+
+10:50.200 --> 10:53.720
+ But then speech recognition and object recognition
+
+10:53.720 --> 10:57.080
+ are relatively suitable problems for deep learning
+
+10:57.080 --> 11:02.440
+ and don't have the potentially need for the human intelligence
+
+11:02.440 --> 11:04.440
+ analytical planning elements.
+
+11:04.440 --> 11:06.400
+ And the same on the speech recognition side,
+
+11:06.400 --> 11:09.440
+ your intuition that speech recognition and the machine
+
+11:09.440 --> 11:11.440
+ learning approaches to speech recognition
+
+11:11.440 --> 11:14.600
+ won't take us to a conversational system that
+
+11:14.600 --> 11:19.160
+ can pass the Turing test, which is maybe akin to what
+
+11:19.160 --> 11:20.040
+ driving is.
+
+11:20.040 --> 11:25.120
+ So it needs to have something more than just simply simple
+
+11:25.120 --> 11:27.480
+ language understanding, simple language generation.
+
+11:27.480 --> 11:32.000
+ Roughly right, I would say that based on purely machine
+
+11:32.000 --> 11:35.160
+ learning approaches, it's hard to imagine.
+
+11:35.160 --> 11:40.520
+ It could lead to a full conversational experience
+
+11:40.520 --> 11:44.600
+ across arbitrary domains, which is akin to L5.
+
+11:44.600 --> 11:46.920
+ I'm a little hesitant to use the word Turing test,
+
+11:46.920 --> 11:50.280
+ because the original definition was probably too easy.
+
+11:50.280 --> 11:52.320
+ We probably do that.
+
+11:52.320 --> 11:55.280
+ The spirit of the Turing test is what I was referring to.
+
+11:55.280 --> 11:56.520
+ Of course.
+
+11:56.520 --> 11:59.400
+ So you've had major leadership research positions
+
+11:59.400 --> 12:01.640
+ at Apple, Microsoft, Google.
+
+12:01.640 --> 12:06.320
+ So continuing on the discussion of America, Russia, Chinese soul
+
+12:06.320 --> 12:10.520
+ and culture and so on, what is the culture of Silicon
+
+12:10.520 --> 12:16.400
+ Valley in contrast to China and maybe US broadly?
+
+12:16.400 --> 12:19.920
+ And what is the unique culture of each of these three
+
+12:19.920 --> 12:22.040
+ major companies, in your view?
+
+12:22.040 --> 12:25.120
+ I think in aggregate, Silicon Valley companies,
+
+12:25.120 --> 12:27.200
+ we could probably include Microsoft in that,
+
+12:27.200 --> 12:29.120
+ even though they're not in the Valley,
+
+12:29.120 --> 12:33.960
+ is really dream big and have visionary goals
+
+12:33.960 --> 12:37.920
+ and believe that technology will conquer all
+
+12:37.920 --> 12:42.240
+ and also the self confidence and the self entitlement
+
+12:42.240 --> 12:45.440
+ that whatever they produce, the whole world should use
+
+12:45.440 --> 12:47.240
+ and must use.
+
+12:47.240 --> 12:54.080
+ And those are historically important, I think.
+
+12:54.080 --> 12:59.120
+ Steve Jobs's famous quote that he doesn't do focus groups.
+
+12:59.120 --> 13:02.360
+ He looks in the mirror and asks the person in the mirror,
+
+13:02.360 --> 13:03.520
+ what do you want?
+
+13:03.520 --> 13:07.000
+ And that really is an inspirational comment
+
+13:07.000 --> 13:10.480
+ that says the great company shouldn't just ask users
+
+13:10.480 --> 13:13.240
+ what they want, but develop something
+
+13:13.240 --> 13:16.200
+ that users will know they want when they see it,
+
+13:16.200 --> 13:18.960
+ but they could never come up with themselves.
+
+13:18.960 --> 13:23.880
+ I think that is probably the most exhilarating description
+
+13:23.880 --> 13:26.560
+ of what the essence of Silicon Valley is,
+
+13:26.560 --> 13:31.840
+ that this brilliant idea could cause you to build something
+
+13:31.840 --> 13:35.520
+ that couldn't come out of the focus groups or A.B. tests.
+
+13:35.520 --> 13:38.040
+ And iPhone would be an example of that.
+
+13:38.040 --> 13:40.560
+ No one in the age of BlackBerry would write down
+
+13:40.560 --> 13:43.720
+ they want an iPhone or multi touch, a browser,
+
+13:43.720 --> 13:44.800
+ might be another example.
+
+13:44.800 --> 13:47.520
+ No one would say they want that in the days of FTP,
+
+13:47.520 --> 13:49.440
+ but once they see it, they want it.
+
+13:49.440 --> 13:55.680
+ So I think that is what Silicon Valley is best at.
+
+13:55.680 --> 13:58.920
+ But it also came with a lot of success.
+
+13:58.920 --> 14:01.960
+ These products became global platforms,
+
+14:01.960 --> 14:05.080
+ and there were basically no competitors anywhere.
+
+14:05.080 --> 14:08.400
+ And that has also led to a belief
+
+14:08.400 --> 14:13.240
+ that these are the only things that one should do,
+
+14:13.240 --> 14:17.960
+ that companies should not tread on other companies territory,
+
+14:17.960 --> 14:24.040
+ so that a Groupon and a Yelp and an OpenTable
+
+14:24.040 --> 14:26.240
+ and the Grubhub would each feel,
+
+14:26.240 --> 14:28.520
+ okay, I'm not going to do the other companies business
+
+14:28.520 --> 14:33.280
+ because that would not be the pride of innovating
+
+14:33.280 --> 14:36.920
+ what each of these four companies have innovated.
+
+14:36.920 --> 14:42.720
+ But I think the Chinese approach is do whatever it takes to win.
+
+14:42.720 --> 14:45.000
+ And it's a winner take all market.
+
+14:45.000 --> 14:47.200
+ And in fact, in the internet space,
+
+14:47.200 --> 14:50.840
+ the market leader will get predominantly all the value
+
+14:50.840 --> 14:53.320
+ extracted out of the system.
+
+14:53.320 --> 14:59.600
+ And the system isn't just defined as one narrow category,
+
+14:59.600 --> 15:01.360
+ but gets broader and broader.
+
+15:01.360 --> 15:07.960
+ So it's amazing ambition for success and domination
+
+15:07.960 --> 15:11.760
+ of increasingly larger product categories
+
+15:11.760 --> 15:15.080
+ leading to clear market winner status
+
+15:15.080 --> 15:19.120
+ and the opportunity to extract tremendous value.
+
+15:19.120 --> 15:25.840
+ And that develops a practical, result oriented,
+
+15:25.840 --> 15:31.520
+ ultra ambitious winner take all gladiatorial mentality.
+
+15:31.520 --> 15:37.400
+ And if what it takes is to build what the competitors built,
+
+15:37.400 --> 15:41.920
+ essentially a copycat, that can be done without infringing laws.
+
+15:41.920 --> 15:46.280
+ If what it takes is to satisfy a foreign country's need
+
+15:46.280 --> 15:48.480
+ by forking the code base and building something
+
+15:48.480 --> 15:51.440
+ that looks really ugly and different, they'll do it.
+
+15:51.440 --> 15:56.280
+ So it's contrasted very sharply with the Silicon Valley approach.
+
+15:56.280 --> 16:00.080
+ And I think the flexibility and the speed and execution
+
+16:00.080 --> 16:01.960
+ has helped the Chinese approach.
+
+16:01.960 --> 16:05.040
+ And I think the Silicon Valley approach
+
+16:05.040 --> 16:10.280
+ is potentially challenged if every Chinese entrepreneur is
+
+16:10.280 --> 16:13.200
+ learning from the whole world, US and China,
+
+16:13.200 --> 16:16.280
+ and the American entrepreneurs only look internally
+
+16:16.280 --> 16:19.600
+ and write off China as a copycat.
+
+16:19.600 --> 16:22.880
+ And the second part of your question about the three
+
+16:22.880 --> 16:23.520
+ companies.
+
+16:23.520 --> 16:26.000
+ The unique elements of the three companies, perhaps.
+
+16:26.000 --> 16:26.840
+ Yeah.
+
+16:26.840 --> 16:33.080
+ I think Apple represents, while the user, please the user,
+
+16:33.080 --> 16:38.520
+ and the essence of design and brand,
+
+16:38.520 --> 16:44.080
+ and it's the one company and perhaps the only tech company
+
+16:44.080 --> 16:49.920
+ that draws people with a strong, serious desire
+
+16:49.920 --> 16:53.560
+ for the product and the willingness to pay a premium
+
+16:53.560 --> 16:57.160
+ because of the halo effect of the brand, which
+
+16:57.160 --> 17:00.960
+ came from the attention to detail and great respect
+
+17:00.960 --> 17:03.360
+ for user needs.
+
+17:03.360 --> 17:09.200
+ Microsoft represents a platform approach
+
+17:09.200 --> 17:14.280
+ that builds giant products that become very strong modes
+
+17:14.280 --> 17:17.680
+ that others can't do because it's
+
+17:17.680 --> 17:21.480
+ well architected at the bottom level
+
+17:21.480 --> 17:26.640
+ and the work is efficiently delegated to individuals
+
+17:26.640 --> 17:30.360
+ and then the whole product is built
+
+17:30.360 --> 17:33.560
+ by adding small parts that sum together.
+
+17:33.560 --> 17:37.760
+ So it's probably the most effective high tech assembly
+
+17:37.760 --> 17:40.480
+ line that builds a very difficult product
+
+17:40.480 --> 17:44.800
+ that the whole process of doing that
+
+17:44.800 --> 17:50.800
+ is kind of a differentiation and something competitors
+
+17:50.800 --> 17:52.480
+ can't easily repeat.
+
+17:52.480 --> 17:54.800
+ Are there elements of the Chinese approach
+
+17:54.800 --> 17:59.280
+ in the way Microsoft went about assembling those little pieces
+
+17:59.280 --> 18:03.920
+ and essentially dominating the market for a long time?
+
+18:03.920 --> 18:05.640
+ Or do you see those as distinct?
+
+18:05.640 --> 18:08.240
+ I think there are elements that are the same.
+
+18:08.240 --> 18:10.440
+ I think the three American companies
+
+18:10.440 --> 18:13.880
+ that had or have Chinese characteristics,
+
+18:13.880 --> 18:16.080
+ and obviously as well as American characteristics,
+
+18:16.080 --> 18:20.400
+ are Microsoft, Facebook, and Amazon.
+
+18:20.400 --> 18:21.720
+ Yes, that's right, Amazon.
+
+18:21.720 --> 18:25.560
+ Because these are companies that will tenaciously
+
+18:25.560 --> 18:31.320
+ go after adjacent markets, build up strong product offering,
+
+18:31.320 --> 18:38.200
+ and find ways to extract greater value from a sphere that's
+
+18:38.200 --> 18:39.960
+ ever increasing.
+
+18:39.960 --> 18:43.520
+ And they understand the value of the platforms.
+
+18:43.520 --> 18:45.600
+ So that's the similarity.
+
+18:45.600 --> 18:53.760
+ And then with Google, I think it's a genuinely value oriented
+
+18:53.760 --> 18:56.960
+ company that does have a heart and soul
+
+18:56.960 --> 18:59.760
+ and that wants to do great things for the world
+
+18:59.760 --> 19:06.040
+ by connecting information and that has also
+
+19:06.040 --> 19:13.280
+ very strong technology genes and wants to use technology
+
+19:13.280 --> 19:19.080
+ and has found out of the box ways to use technology
+
+19:19.080 --> 19:23.680
+ to deliver incredible value to the end user.
+
+19:23.680 --> 19:25.240
+ We can look at Google, for example.
+
+19:25.240 --> 19:28.040
+ You mentioned heart and soul.
+
+19:28.040 --> 19:31.840
+ There seems to be an element where Google
+
+19:31.840 --> 19:34.840
+ is after making the world better.
+
+19:34.840 --> 19:36.520
+ There's a more positive view.
+
+19:36.520 --> 19:38.960
+ I mean, they used to have the slogan, don't be evil.
+
+19:38.960 --> 19:43.120
+ And Facebook a little bit more has a negative tend to it,
+
+19:43.120 --> 19:46.000
+ at least in the perception of privacy and so on.
+
+19:46.000 --> 19:51.280
+ Do you have a sense of how these different companies can
+
+19:51.280 --> 19:53.400
+ achieve, because you've talked about how much
+
+19:53.400 --> 19:55.600
+ we can make the world better in all these kinds of ways
+
+19:55.600 --> 19:59.360
+ with AI, what is it about a company that can make,
+
+19:59.360 --> 20:03.200
+ give it a heart and soul, gain the trust of the public,
+
+20:03.200 --> 20:08.000
+ and just actually just not be evil and do good for the world?
+
+20:08.000 --> 20:09.000
+ It's really hard.
+
+20:09.000 --> 20:13.120
+ And I think Google has struggled with that.
+
+20:13.120 --> 20:15.160
+ First, they don't do evil.
+
+20:15.160 --> 20:18.880
+ Mantra is very dangerous, because every employee's
+
+20:18.880 --> 20:20.800
+ definition of evil is different.
+
+20:20.800 --> 20:23.800
+ And that has led to some difficult employee situations
+
+20:23.800 --> 20:25.240
+ for them.
+
+20:25.240 --> 20:29.520
+ So I don't necessarily think that's a good value statement.
+
+20:29.520 --> 20:31.840
+ But just watching the kinds of things
+
+20:31.840 --> 20:36.440
+ Google or its parent company Alphabet does in new areas
+
+20:36.440 --> 20:40.440
+ like health care, like eradicating mosquitoes,
+
+20:40.440 --> 20:42.360
+ things that are really not in the business
+
+20:42.360 --> 20:45.040
+ of a internet tech company, I think
+
+20:45.040 --> 20:47.200
+ that shows that there is a heart and soul
+
+20:47.200 --> 20:53.920
+ and desire to do good and willingness to put in the resources
+
+20:53.920 --> 20:58.280
+ to do something when they see it's good, they will pursue it.
+
+20:58.280 --> 21:00.640
+ That doesn't necessarily mean it has
+
+21:00.640 --> 21:02.520
+ all the trust of the users.
+
+21:02.520 --> 21:06.400
+ I realize while most people would view Facebook
+
+21:06.400 --> 21:09.760
+ as the primary target of their recent unhappiness
+
+21:09.760 --> 21:12.720
+ about Silicon Valley companies, many would put Google
+
+21:12.720 --> 21:14.080
+ in that category.
+
+21:14.080 --> 21:16.800
+ And some have named Google's business practices
+
+21:16.800 --> 21:19.840
+ as predatory also.
+
+21:19.840 --> 21:24.240
+ So it's kind of difficult to have the two parts of a body.
+
+21:24.240 --> 21:28.080
+ The brain wants to do what it's supposed to do for a shareholder,
+
+21:28.080 --> 21:29.280
+ maximize profit.
+
+21:29.280 --> 21:30.880
+ And then the heart and soul wants
+
+21:30.880 --> 21:36.120
+ to do good things that may run against what the brain wants to do.
+
+21:36.120 --> 21:40.320
+ So in this complex balancing that these companies have to do,
+
+21:40.320 --> 21:44.520
+ you've mentioned that you're concerned about a future where
+
+21:44.520 --> 21:47.360
+ too few companies like Google, Facebook, Amazon
+
+21:47.360 --> 21:51.560
+ are controlling our data or are controlling too much
+
+21:51.560 --> 21:53.360
+ of our digital lives.
+
+21:53.360 --> 21:55.400
+ Can you elaborate on this concern?
+
+21:55.400 --> 21:58.640
+ Perhaps do you have a better way forward?
+
+21:58.640 --> 22:05.000
+ I think I'm hardly the most vocal complainer of this.
+
+22:05.000 --> 22:07.280
+ There are a lot louder complainers out there.
+
+22:07.280 --> 22:11.840
+ I do observe that having a lot of data
+
+22:11.840 --> 22:16.120
+ does perpetuate their strength and limits
+
+22:16.120 --> 22:19.400
+ competition in many spaces.
+
+22:19.400 --> 22:24.200
+ But I also believe AI is much broader than the internet space.
+
+22:24.200 --> 22:26.280
+ So the entrepreneurial opportunities
+
+22:26.280 --> 22:30.480
+ still exists in using AI to empower
+
+22:30.480 --> 22:34.160
+ financial, retail, manufacturing, education,
+
+22:34.160 --> 22:35.480
+ applications.
+
+22:35.480 --> 22:39.800
+ So I don't think it's quite a case of full monopolistic dominance
+
+22:39.800 --> 22:43.960
+ that totally stifles innovation.
+
+22:43.960 --> 22:46.400
+ But I do believe in their areas of strength
+
+22:46.400 --> 22:49.760
+ it's hard to dislodge them.
+
+22:49.760 --> 22:53.280
+ I don't know if I have a good solution.
+
+22:53.280 --> 22:57.160
+ Probably the best solution is let the entrepreneurial VC
+
+22:57.160 --> 23:00.840
+ ecosystem work well and find all the places that
+
+23:00.840 --> 23:04.200
+ can create the next Google, the next Facebook.
+
+23:04.200 --> 23:08.560
+ So there will always be increasing number of challengers.
+
+23:08.560 --> 23:11.360
+ In some sense, that has happened a little bit.
+
+23:11.360 --> 23:15.760
+ You see Uber, Airbnb having emerged despite the strength
+
+23:15.760 --> 23:19.040
+ of the big three.
+
+23:19.040 --> 23:22.400
+ And I think China as an environment
+
+23:22.400 --> 23:25.280
+ may be more interesting for the emergence.
+
+23:25.280 --> 23:28.920
+ Because if you look at companies between, let's say,
+
+23:28.920 --> 23:36.320
+ $50 to $300 billion, China has emerged more of such companies
+
+23:36.320 --> 23:39.880
+ than the US in the last three to four years.
+
+23:39.880 --> 23:42.120
+ Because of the larger marketplace,
+
+23:42.120 --> 23:47.000
+ because of the more fearless nature of the entrepreneurs.
+
+23:47.000 --> 23:50.840
+ And the Chinese giants are just as powerful as American ones.
+
+23:50.840 --> 23:52.920
+ Tencent Alibaba are very strong.
+
+23:52.920 --> 23:57.040
+ But Bytes Dance has emerged worth $75 billion.
+
+23:57.040 --> 24:00.120
+ And financial, while it's Alibaba affiliated,
+
+24:00.120 --> 24:03.920
+ it's nevertheless independent and worth $150 billion.
+
+24:03.920 --> 24:08.280
+ And so I do think if we start to extend
+
+24:08.280 --> 24:12.640
+ to traditional businesses, we will see very valuable companies.
+
+24:12.640 --> 24:18.120
+ So it's probably not the case that in five or 10 years,
+
+24:18.120 --> 24:20.920
+ we'll still see the whole world with these five companies
+
+24:20.920 --> 24:22.680
+ having such dominance.
+
+24:22.680 --> 24:26.040
+ So you've mentioned a couple of times
+
+24:26.040 --> 24:27.840
+ this fascinating world of entrepreneurship
+
+24:27.840 --> 24:31.080
+ in China of the fearless nature of the entrepreneurs.
+
+24:31.080 --> 24:32.640
+ So can you maybe talk a little bit
+
+24:32.640 --> 24:35.520
+ about what it takes to be an entrepreneur in China?
+
+24:35.520 --> 24:38.240
+ What are the strategies that are undertaken?
+
+24:38.240 --> 24:41.120
+ What are the ways that you success?
+
+24:41.120 --> 24:43.960
+ What is the dynamic of VCF funding,
+
+24:43.960 --> 24:46.480
+ of the way the government helps companies, and so on?
+
+24:46.480 --> 24:49.520
+ What are the interesting aspects here that are distinct from,
+
+24:49.520 --> 24:52.880
+ that are different from the Silicon Valley world
+
+24:52.880 --> 24:55.240
+ of entrepreneurship?
+
+24:55.240 --> 24:58.080
+ Well, many of the listeners probably
+
+24:58.080 --> 25:03.000
+ still would brand Chinese entrepreneur as copycats.
+
+25:03.000 --> 25:06.120
+ And no doubt, 10 years ago, that would not
+
+25:06.120 --> 25:09.080
+ be an inaccurate description.
+
+25:09.080 --> 25:12.320
+ Back 10 years ago, an entrepreneur probably
+
+25:12.320 --> 25:14.840
+ could not get funding if he or she could not
+
+25:14.840 --> 25:20.400
+ describe what product he or she is copying from the US.
+
+25:20.400 --> 25:23.520
+ The first question is, who has proven this business model,
+
+25:23.520 --> 25:27.200
+ which is a nice way of asking, who are you copying?
+
+25:27.200 --> 25:29.520
+ And that reason is understandable,
+
+25:29.520 --> 25:34.840
+ because China had a much lower internet penetration
+
+25:34.840 --> 25:40.920
+ and didn't have enough indigenous experience
+
+25:40.920 --> 25:43.200
+ to build innovative products.
+
+25:43.200 --> 25:47.600
+ And secondly, internet was emerging.
+
+25:47.600 --> 25:49.800
+ Link startup was the way to do things,
+
+25:49.800 --> 25:52.920
+ building a first minimally viable product,
+
+25:52.920 --> 25:55.320
+ and then expanding was the right way to go.
+
+25:55.320 --> 25:59.480
+ And the American successes have given a shortcut
+
+25:59.480 --> 26:02.840
+ that if you build your minimally viable product based
+
+26:02.840 --> 26:05.040
+ on an American product, it's guaranteed
+
+26:05.040 --> 26:06.720
+ to be a decent starting point.
+
+26:06.720 --> 26:08.400
+ Then you tweak it afterwards.
+
+26:08.400 --> 26:11.720
+ So as long as there are no IP infringement, which,
+
+26:11.720 --> 26:15.080
+ as far as I know, there hasn't been in the mobile and AI
+
+26:15.080 --> 26:19.360
+ spaces, that's a much better shortcut.
+
+26:19.360 --> 26:23.720
+ And I think Silicon Valley would view that as still not
+
+26:23.720 --> 26:29.200
+ very honorable, because that's not your own idea to start with.
+
+26:29.200 --> 26:32.600
+ But you can't really, at the same time,
+
+26:32.600 --> 26:35.160
+ believe every idea must be your own
+
+26:35.160 --> 26:38.120
+ and believe in the link startup methodology,
+
+26:38.120 --> 26:41.880
+ because link startup is intended to try many, many things
+
+26:41.880 --> 26:44.240
+ and then converge when that works.
+
+26:44.240 --> 26:46.720
+ And it's meant to be iterated and changed.
+
+26:46.720 --> 26:51.240
+ So finding a decent starting point without legal violations,
+
+26:51.240 --> 26:55.520
+ there should be nothing morally dishonorable about that.
+
+26:55.520 --> 26:57.080
+ So just a quick pause on that.
+
+26:57.080 --> 27:01.920
+ It's fascinating that that's why is that not honorable, right?
+
+27:01.920 --> 27:04.680
+ It's exactly as you formulated.
+
+27:04.680 --> 27:08.040
+ It seems like a perfect start for business
+
+27:08.040 --> 27:12.440
+ is to take a look at Amazon and say, OK,
+
+27:12.440 --> 27:14.560
+ we'll do exactly what Amazon is doing.
+
+27:14.560 --> 27:16.800
+ Let's start there in this particular market.
+
+27:16.800 --> 27:20.520
+ And then let's out innovate them from that starting point.
+
+27:20.520 --> 27:22.200
+ Yes. Come up with new ways.
+
+27:22.200 --> 27:26.520
+ I mean, is it wrong to be, except the word copycat just
+
+27:26.520 --> 27:28.800
+ sounds bad, but is it wrong to be a copycat?
+
+27:28.800 --> 27:31.640
+ It just seems like a smart strategy.
+
+27:31.640 --> 27:35.800
+ But yes, doesn't have a heroic nature to it
+
+27:35.800 --> 27:42.280
+ that Steve Jobs, Elon Musk, sort of in something completely
+
+27:42.280 --> 27:43.880
+ coming up with something completely new.
+
+27:43.880 --> 27:45.480
+ Yeah, I like the way you describe it.
+
+27:45.480 --> 27:50.440
+ It's a nonheroic, acceptable way to start the company.
+
+27:50.440 --> 27:52.840
+ And maybe more expedient.
+
+27:52.840 --> 27:58.920
+ So that's, I think, a baggage for Silicon Valley,
+
+27:58.920 --> 28:01.320
+ that if it doesn't let go, then it
+
+28:01.320 --> 28:05.160
+ may limit the ultimate ceiling of the company.
+
+28:05.160 --> 28:07.200
+ Take Snapchat as an example.
+
+28:07.200 --> 28:09.840
+ I think Evan's brilliant.
+
+28:09.840 --> 28:11.480
+ He built a great product.
+
+28:11.480 --> 28:14.160
+ But he's very proud that he wants
+
+28:14.160 --> 28:16.800
+ to build his own features, not copy others.
+
+28:16.800 --> 28:21.000
+ While Facebook was more willing to copy his features,
+
+28:21.000 --> 28:23.440
+ and you see what happens in the competition.
+
+28:23.440 --> 28:27.440
+ So I think putting that handcuff on the company
+
+28:27.440 --> 28:31.560
+ would limit its ability to reach the maximum potential.
+
+28:31.560 --> 28:33.800
+ So back to the Chinese environment,
+
+28:33.800 --> 28:38.400
+ copying was merely a way to learn from the American masters.
+
+28:38.400 --> 28:43.480
+ Just like if we learned to play piano or painting,
+
+28:43.480 --> 28:44.560
+ you start by copying.
+
+28:44.560 --> 28:46.160
+ You don't start by innovating when
+
+28:46.160 --> 28:48.200
+ you don't have the basic skill sets.
+
+28:48.200 --> 28:51.040
+ So very amazingly, the Chinese entrepreneurs
+
+28:51.040 --> 28:56.160
+ about six years ago started to branch off
+
+28:56.160 --> 28:59.520
+ with these lean startups built on American ideas
+
+28:59.520 --> 29:02.280
+ to build better products than American products.
+
+29:02.280 --> 29:04.960
+ But they did start from the American idea.
+
+29:04.960 --> 29:08.600
+ And today, WeChat is better than WhatsApp.
+
+29:08.600 --> 29:10.520
+ Weibo is better than Twitter.
+
+29:10.520 --> 29:12.920
+ Zihu is better than Quora and so on.
+
+29:12.920 --> 29:17.000
+ So that, I think, is Chinese entrepreneurs
+
+29:17.000 --> 29:18.480
+ going to step two.
+
+29:18.480 --> 29:21.760
+ And then step three is once these entrepreneurs have
+
+29:21.760 --> 29:23.720
+ done one or two of these companies,
+
+29:23.720 --> 29:27.400
+ they now look at the Chinese market and the opportunities
+
+29:27.400 --> 29:30.600
+ and come up with ideas that didn't exist elsewhere.
+
+29:30.600 --> 29:36.320
+ So products like and financial under which includes Alipay,
+
+29:36.320 --> 29:42.080
+ which is mobile payments, and also the financial products
+
+29:42.080 --> 29:48.560
+ for loans built on that, and also in education, VIP kid,
+
+29:48.560 --> 29:54.880
+ and in social video, social network, TikTok,
+
+29:54.880 --> 29:58.640
+ and in social eCommerce, Pinduoduo,
+
+29:58.640 --> 30:01.720
+ and then in ride sharing, Mobike.
+
+30:01.720 --> 30:05.640
+ These are all Chinese innovative products
+
+30:05.640 --> 30:08.720
+ that now are being copied elsewhere.
+
+30:08.720 --> 30:13.040
+ So an additional interesting observation
+
+30:13.040 --> 30:16.000
+ is some of these products are built on unique Chinese
+
+30:16.000 --> 30:19.360
+ demographics, which may not work in the US,
+
+30:19.360 --> 30:23.160
+ but may work very well in Southeast Asia, Africa,
+
+30:23.160 --> 30:27.840
+ and other developing worlds that are a few years behind China.
+
+30:27.840 --> 30:31.040
+ And a few of these products maybe are universal
+
+30:31.040 --> 30:33.760
+ and are getting traction even in the United States,
+
+30:33.760 --> 30:35.360
+ such as TikTok.
+
+30:35.360 --> 30:42.080
+ So this whole ecosystem is supported by VCs
+
+30:42.080 --> 30:44.920
+ as a virtuous cycle, because a large market
+
+30:44.920 --> 30:49.400
+ with innovative entrepreneurs will draw a lot of money
+
+30:49.400 --> 30:51.560
+ and then invest in these companies.
+
+30:51.560 --> 30:54.480
+ As the market gets larger and larger,
+
+30:54.480 --> 30:58.400
+ China market is easily three, four times larger than the US.
+
+30:58.400 --> 31:01.120
+ They will create greater value and greater returns
+
+31:01.120 --> 31:05.400
+ for the VCs, thereby raising even more money.
+
+31:05.400 --> 31:10.000
+ So at Sinovation Ventures, our first fund was $15 million.
+
+31:10.000 --> 31:12.040
+ Our last fund was $500 million.
+
+31:12.040 --> 31:16.520
+ So it reflects the valuation of the companies
+
+31:16.520 --> 31:19.840
+ and our us going multi stage and things like that.
+
+31:19.840 --> 31:23.840
+ It also has government support, but not
+
+31:23.840 --> 31:26.080
+ in the way most Americans would think of it.
+
+31:26.080 --> 31:29.520
+ The government actually leaves the entrepreneurial space
+
+31:29.520 --> 31:33.200
+ as a private enterprise, so the self regulating.
+
+31:33.200 --> 31:36.200
+ And the government would build infrastructures
+
+31:36.200 --> 31:39.320
+ that would around it to make it work better.
+
+31:39.320 --> 31:41.960
+ For example, the mass entrepreneur mass innovation
+
+31:41.960 --> 31:44.880
+ plan builds 8,000 incubators.
+
+31:44.880 --> 31:48.360
+ So the pipeline is very strong to the VCs
+
+31:48.360 --> 31:49.680
+ for autonomous vehicles.
+
+31:49.680 --> 31:53.280
+ The Chinese government is building smart highways
+
+31:53.280 --> 31:56.680
+ with sensors, smart cities that separate pedestrians
+
+31:56.680 --> 32:01.560
+ from cars that may allow initially an inferior autonomous
+
+32:01.560 --> 32:05.760
+ vehicle company to launch a car without increasing,
+
+32:05.760 --> 32:11.520
+ with lower casualty, because the roads or the city is smart.
+
+32:11.520 --> 32:13.800
+ And the Chinese government at local levels
+
+32:13.800 --> 32:17.360
+ would have these guiding funds acting as LPs,
+
+32:17.360 --> 32:19.400
+ passive LPs to funds.
+
+32:19.400 --> 32:23.240
+ And when the fund makes money, part of the money made
+
+32:23.240 --> 32:27.280
+ is given back to the GPs and potentially other LPs
+
+32:27.280 --> 32:31.960
+ to increase everybody's return at the expense
+
+32:31.960 --> 32:33.680
+ of the government's return.
+
+32:33.680 --> 32:36.360
+ So that's an interesting incentive
+
+32:36.360 --> 32:41.640
+ that entrusts the task of choosing entrepreneurs to VCs
+
+32:41.640 --> 32:43.800
+ who are better at it than the government
+
+32:43.800 --> 32:46.680
+ by letting some of the profits move that way.
+
+32:46.680 --> 32:48.720
+ So this is really fascinating, right?
+
+32:48.720 --> 32:51.800
+ So I look at the Russian government as a case study
+
+32:51.800 --> 32:54.480
+ where, let me put it this way, there
+
+32:54.480 --> 32:58.520
+ is no such government driven, large scale
+
+32:58.520 --> 33:00.840
+ support of entrepreneurship.
+
+33:00.840 --> 33:04.000
+ And probably the same is true in the United States.
+
+33:04.000 --> 33:07.640
+ But the entrepreneurs themselves kind of find a way.
+
+33:07.640 --> 33:11.680
+ So maybe in a form of advice or explanation,
+
+33:11.680 --> 33:15.560
+ how did the Chinese government arrive to be this way,
+
+33:15.560 --> 33:17.680
+ so supportive on entrepreneurship,
+
+33:17.680 --> 33:21.520
+ to be in this particular way so forward thinking
+
+33:21.520 --> 33:23.120
+ at such a large scale?
+
+33:23.120 --> 33:28.280
+ And also perhaps, how can we copy it in other countries?
+
+33:28.280 --> 33:29.800
+ How can we encourage other governments,
+
+33:29.800 --> 33:31.600
+ like even the United States government,
+
+33:31.600 --> 33:33.760
+ to support infrastructure for autonomous vehicles
+
+33:33.760 --> 33:36.040
+ in that same kind of way, perhaps?
+
+33:36.040 --> 33:36.680
+ Yes.
+
+33:36.680 --> 33:44.440
+ So these techniques are the result of several key things,
+
+33:44.440 --> 33:46.480
+ some of which may be learnable, some of which
+
+33:46.480 --> 33:48.440
+ may be very hard.
+
+33:48.440 --> 33:51.080
+ One is just trial and error and watching
+
+33:51.080 --> 33:52.960
+ what everyone else is doing.
+
+33:52.960 --> 33:54.960
+ I think it's important to be humble and not
+
+33:54.960 --> 33:56.920
+ feel like you know all the answers.
+
+33:56.920 --> 33:59.480
+ The guiding funds idea came from Singapore,
+
+33:59.480 --> 34:01.440
+ which came from Israel.
+
+34:01.440 --> 34:06.080
+ And China made a few tweaks and turned it into a,
+
+34:06.080 --> 34:09.600
+ because the Chinese cities and government officials kind
+
+34:09.600 --> 34:11.320
+ of compete with each other.
+
+34:11.320 --> 34:14.640
+ Because they all want to make their city more successful,
+
+34:14.640 --> 34:20.280
+ so they can get the next level in their political career.
+
+34:20.280 --> 34:22.320
+ And it's somewhat competitive.
+
+34:22.320 --> 34:25.200
+ So the central government made it a bit of a competition.
+
+34:25.200 --> 34:26.840
+ Everybody has a budget.
+
+34:26.840 --> 34:29.840
+ They can put it on AI, or they can put it on bio,
+
+34:29.840 --> 34:32.200
+ or they can put it on energy.
+
+34:32.200 --> 34:35.040
+ And then whoever gets the results, the city shines,
+
+34:35.040 --> 34:38.000
+ the people are better off, the mayor gets a promotion.
+
+34:38.000 --> 34:41.680
+ So the tools is kind of almost like an entrepreneurial
+
+34:41.680 --> 34:44.840
+ environment for local governments
+
+34:44.840 --> 34:47.480
+ to see who can do a better job.
+
+34:47.480 --> 34:52.440
+ And also, many of them tried different experiments.
+
+34:52.440 --> 34:58.440
+ Some have given award to very smart researchers,
+
+34:58.440 --> 35:00.840
+ just give them money and hope they'll start a company.
+
+35:00.840 --> 35:05.840
+ Some have given money to academic research labs,
+
+35:05.840 --> 35:08.440
+ maybe government research labs, to see
+
+35:08.440 --> 35:11.920
+ if they can spin off some companies from the science
+
+35:11.920 --> 35:14.040
+ lab or something like that.
+
+35:14.040 --> 35:17.080
+ Some have tried to recruit overseas Chinese
+
+35:17.080 --> 35:18.960
+ to come back and start companies.
+
+35:18.960 --> 35:20.960
+ And they've had mixed results.
+
+35:20.960 --> 35:23.400
+ The one that worked the best was the guiding funds.
+
+35:23.400 --> 35:25.840
+ So it's almost like a lean startup idea
+
+35:25.840 --> 35:29.160
+ where people try different things in what works, sticks,
+
+35:29.160 --> 35:30.600
+ and everybody copies.
+
+35:30.600 --> 35:32.880
+ So now every city has a guiding fund.
+
+35:32.880 --> 35:35.680
+ So that's how that came about.
+
+35:35.680 --> 35:40.400
+ The autonomous vehicle and the massive spending
+
+35:40.400 --> 35:46.080
+ in highways and smart cities, that's a Chinese way.
+
+35:46.080 --> 35:49.480
+ It's about building infrastructure to facilitate.
+
+35:49.480 --> 35:52.840
+ It's a clear division of the government's responsibility
+
+35:52.840 --> 35:55.400
+ from the market.
+
+35:55.400 --> 36:00.560
+ The market should do everything in a private freeway.
+
+36:00.560 --> 36:02.920
+ But there are things the market can't afford to do,
+
+36:02.920 --> 36:04.520
+ like infrastructure.
+
+36:04.520 --> 36:08.000
+ So the government always appropriates
+
+36:08.000 --> 36:12.000
+ large amounts of money for infrastructure building.
+
+36:12.000 --> 36:16.880
+ This happens with not only autonomous vehicle and AI,
+
+36:16.880 --> 36:20.840
+ but happened with the 3G and 4G.
+
+36:20.840 --> 36:25.320
+ You'll find that the Chinese wireless reception
+
+36:25.320 --> 36:28.760
+ is better than the US, because massive spending that
+
+36:28.760 --> 36:30.720
+ tries to cover the whole country.
+
+36:30.720 --> 36:34.360
+ Whereas in the US, it may be a little spotty.
+
+36:34.360 --> 36:36.160
+ It's a government driven, because I think
+
+36:36.160 --> 36:44.120
+ they view the coverage of cell access and 3G, 4G access
+
+36:44.120 --> 36:47.080
+ to be a governmental infrastructure spending,
+
+36:47.080 --> 36:49.880
+ as opposed to capitalistic.
+
+36:49.880 --> 36:52.160
+ So of course, the state or enterprise
+
+36:52.160 --> 36:55.000
+ is also publicly traded, but they also
+
+36:55.000 --> 36:57.720
+ carry a government responsibility
+
+36:57.720 --> 37:00.240
+ to deliver infrastructure to all.
+
+37:00.240 --> 37:01.880
+ So it's a different way of thinking
+
+37:01.880 --> 37:05.400
+ that may be very hard to inject into Western countries
+
+37:05.400 --> 37:09.280
+ to say starting tomorrow, bandwidth infrastructure
+
+37:09.280 --> 37:13.840
+ and highways are going to be governmental spending
+
+37:13.840 --> 37:16.240
+ with some characteristics.
+
+37:16.240 --> 37:18.240
+ What's your sense, and sorry to interrupt,
+
+37:18.240 --> 37:21.680
+ but because it's such a fascinating point,
+
+37:21.680 --> 37:25.600
+ do you think on the autonomous vehicle space
+
+37:25.600 --> 37:30.120
+ it's possible to solve the problem of full autonomy
+
+37:30.120 --> 37:34.040
+ without significant investment in infrastructure?
+
+37:34.040 --> 37:36.400
+ Well, that's really hard to speculate.
+
+37:36.400 --> 37:38.960
+ I think it's not a yes, no question,
+
+37:38.960 --> 37:41.920
+ but how long does it take question?
+
+37:41.920 --> 37:45.120
+ 15 years, 30 years, 45 years.
+
+37:45.120 --> 37:48.960
+ Clearly with infrastructure augmentation,
+
+37:48.960 --> 37:52.320
+ where there's road, the city, or whole city planning,
+
+37:52.320 --> 37:56.440
+ building a new city, I'm sure that will accelerate
+
+37:56.440 --> 37:59.040
+ the day of the L5.
+
+37:59.040 --> 38:01.520
+ I'm not knowledgeable enough, and it's
+
+38:01.520 --> 38:03.920
+ hard to predict even when we're knowledgeable,
+
+38:03.920 --> 38:07.120
+ because a lot of it is speculative.
+
+38:07.120 --> 38:09.800
+ But in the US, I don't think people
+
+38:09.800 --> 38:13.240
+ would consider building a new city the size of Chicago
+
+38:13.240 --> 38:15.920
+ to make it the AI slash autonomous city.
+
+38:15.920 --> 38:18.840
+ There are smaller ones being built, I'm aware of that.
+
+38:18.840 --> 38:21.280
+ But is infrastructure spend really
+
+38:21.280 --> 38:23.720
+ impossible for US or Western countries?
+
+38:23.720 --> 38:25.680
+ I don't think so.
+
+38:25.680 --> 38:28.920
+ The US highway system was built.
+
+38:28.920 --> 38:31.960
+ Was that during President Eisenhower or Kennedy?
+
+38:31.960 --> 38:33.160
+ Eisenhower, yeah.
+
+38:33.160 --> 38:38.960
+ So maybe historians can study how the President Eisenhower
+
+38:38.960 --> 38:42.960
+ get the resources to build this massive infrastructure that
+
+38:42.960 --> 38:47.560
+ surely gave US a tremendous amount of prosperity
+
+38:47.560 --> 38:50.800
+ over the next decade, if not century.
+
+38:50.800 --> 38:53.240
+ If I may comment on that, then, it
+
+38:53.240 --> 38:54.880
+ takes us to artificial intelligence
+
+38:54.880 --> 38:58.080
+ a little bit, because in order to build infrastructure,
+
+38:58.080 --> 39:00.520
+ it creates a lot of jobs.
+
+39:00.520 --> 39:02.840
+ So I'll be actually interested if you
+
+39:02.840 --> 39:06.120
+ would say that you're talking in your book about all kinds
+
+39:06.120 --> 39:08.960
+ of jobs that could and could not be automated.
+
+39:08.960 --> 39:12.000
+ I wonder if building infrastructure
+
+39:12.000 --> 39:15.720
+ is one of the jobs that would not be easily automated,
+
+39:15.720 --> 39:18.160
+ something you can think about, because I think you've mentioned
+
+39:18.160 --> 39:21.160
+ somewhere in a talk, or that there
+
+39:21.160 --> 39:24.280
+ might be, as jobs are being automated,
+
+39:24.280 --> 39:28.160
+ a role for government to create jobs that can't be automated.
+
+39:28.160 --> 39:31.040
+ Yes, I think that's a possibility.
+
+39:31.040 --> 39:34.280
+ Back in the last financial crisis,
+
+39:34.280 --> 39:40.320
+ China put a lot of money to basically give this economy
+
+39:40.320 --> 39:45.520
+ a boost, and a lot of it went into infrastructure building.
+
+39:45.520 --> 39:49.920
+ And I think that's a legitimate way, at the government level,
+
+39:49.920 --> 39:55.680
+ to deal with the employment issues as well as build out
+
+39:55.680 --> 39:58.960
+ the infrastructure, as long as the infrastructures are truly
+
+39:58.960 --> 40:03.160
+ needed, and as long as there is an employment problem, which
+
+40:03.160 --> 40:04.960
+ we don't know.
+
+40:04.960 --> 40:07.920
+ So maybe taking a little step back,
+
+40:07.920 --> 40:12.840
+ if you've been a leader and a researcher in AI
+
+40:12.840 --> 40:16.200
+ for several decades, at least 30 years,
+
+40:16.200 --> 40:21.040
+ so how has AI changed in the West and the East
+
+40:21.040 --> 40:23.120
+ as you've observed, as you've been deep in it
+
+40:23.120 --> 40:25.120
+ over the past 30 years?
+
+40:25.120 --> 40:28.520
+ Well, AI began as the pursuit of understanding
+
+40:28.520 --> 40:34.160
+ human intelligence, and the term itself represents that.
+
+40:34.160 --> 40:37.680
+ But it kind of drifted into the one subarea that
+
+40:37.680 --> 40:40.880
+ worked extremely well, which is machine intelligence.
+
+40:40.880 --> 40:45.080
+ And that's actually more using pattern recognition techniques
+
+40:45.080 --> 40:51.280
+ to basically do incredibly well on a limited domain,
+
+40:51.280 --> 40:54.840
+ large amount of data, but relatively simple kinds
+
+40:54.840 --> 40:58.720
+ of planning, tasks, and not very creative.
+
+40:58.720 --> 41:02.480
+ So we didn't end up building human intelligence.
+
+41:02.480 --> 41:04.760
+ We built a different machine that
+
+41:04.760 --> 41:08.040
+ was a lot better than us, some problems,
+
+41:08.040 --> 41:11.840
+ but nowhere close to us on other problems.
+
+41:11.840 --> 41:14.200
+ So today, I think a lot of people still
+
+41:14.200 --> 41:18.080
+ misunderstand when we say artificial intelligence
+
+41:18.080 --> 41:20.720
+ and what various products can do.
+
+41:20.720 --> 41:24.160
+ People still think it's about replicating human intelligence.
+
+41:24.160 --> 41:26.160
+ But the products out there really
+
+41:26.160 --> 41:31.680
+ are closer to having invented the internet or the spreadsheet
+
+41:31.680 --> 41:35.360
+ or the database and getting broader adoption.
+
+41:35.360 --> 41:38.400
+ And speaking further to the fears, near term fears
+
+41:38.400 --> 41:41.240
+ that people have about AI, so you're commenting
+
+41:41.240 --> 41:45.680
+ on the general intelligence that people
+
+41:45.680 --> 41:48.040
+ in the popular culture from sci fi movies
+
+41:48.040 --> 41:50.920
+ have a sense about AI, but there's practical fears
+
+41:50.920 --> 41:54.800
+ about AI, the kind of narrow AI that you're talking about
+
+41:54.800 --> 41:57.280
+ of automating particular kinds of jobs,
+
+41:57.280 --> 41:59.400
+ and you talk about them in the book.
+
+41:59.400 --> 42:01.520
+ So what are the kinds of jobs in your view
+
+42:01.520 --> 42:04.840
+ that you see in the next five, 10 years beginning
+
+42:04.840 --> 42:09.240
+ to be automated by AI systems algorithms?
+
+42:09.240 --> 42:13.000
+ Yes, this is also maybe a little bit counterintuitive
+
+42:13.000 --> 42:15.440
+ because it's the routine jobs that
+
+42:15.440 --> 42:18.360
+ will be displaced the soonest.
+
+42:18.360 --> 42:23.120
+ And they may not be displaced entirely, maybe 50%, 80%
+
+42:23.120 --> 42:26.320
+ of a job, but when the workload drops by that much,
+
+42:26.320 --> 42:28.760
+ employment will come down.
+
+42:28.760 --> 42:31.520
+ And also another part of misunderstanding
+
+42:31.520 --> 42:35.720
+ is most people think of AI replacing routine jobs,
+
+42:35.720 --> 42:38.760
+ then they think of the assembly line, the workers.
+
+42:38.760 --> 42:40.960
+ Well, that will have some effects,
+
+42:40.960 --> 42:44.600
+ but it's actually the routine white collar workers that's
+
+42:44.600 --> 42:49.280
+ easiest to replace because to replace a white collar worker,
+
+42:49.280 --> 42:50.720
+ you just need software.
+
+42:50.720 --> 42:53.120
+ To replace a blue collar worker,
+
+42:53.120 --> 42:57.200
+ you need robotics, mechanical excellence,
+
+42:57.200 --> 43:01.880
+ and the ability to deal with dexterity,
+
+43:01.880 --> 43:05.640
+ and maybe even unknown environments, very, very difficult.
+
+43:05.640 --> 43:11.200
+ So if we were to categorize the most dangerous white collar
+
+43:11.200 --> 43:15.600
+ jobs, they would be things like back office,
+
+43:15.600 --> 43:20.800
+ people who copy and paste and deal with simple computer
+
+43:20.800 --> 43:25.560
+ programs and data, and maybe paper and OCR,
+
+43:25.560 --> 43:29.000
+ and they don't make strategic decisions,
+
+43:29.000 --> 43:32.040
+ they basically facilitate the process.
+
+43:32.040 --> 43:34.680
+ These software and paper systems don't work,
+
+43:34.680 --> 43:40.520
+ so you have people dealing with new employee orientation,
+
+43:40.520 --> 43:45.400
+ searching for past lawsuits and financial documents,
+
+43:45.400 --> 43:49.800
+ and doing reference check, so basic searching and management
+
+43:49.800 --> 43:52.800
+ of data that's the most in danger of being lost.
+
+43:52.800 --> 43:56.440
+ In addition to the white collar repetitive work,
+
+43:56.440 --> 43:59.360
+ a lot of simple interaction work can also
+
+43:59.360 --> 44:02.840
+ be taken care of, such as tele sales, telemarketing,
+
+44:02.840 --> 44:07.280
+ customer service, as well as many physical jobs
+
+44:07.280 --> 44:09.880
+ that are in the same location and don't
+
+44:09.880 --> 44:12.240
+ require a high degree of dexterity,
+
+44:12.240 --> 44:17.840
+ so fruit picking, dishwashing, assembly line, inspection,
+
+44:17.840 --> 44:20.360
+ our jobs in that category.
+
+44:20.360 --> 44:25.440
+ So altogether, back office is a big part,
+
+44:25.440 --> 44:29.840
+ and the other, the blue collar may be smaller initially,
+
+44:29.840 --> 44:32.560
+ but over time, AI will get better.
+
+44:32.560 --> 44:36.880
+ And when we start to get to over the next 15, 20 years,
+
+44:36.880 --> 44:39.120
+ the ability to actually have the dexterity
+
+44:39.120 --> 44:42.600
+ of doing assembly line, that's a huge chunk of jobs.
+
+44:42.600 --> 44:44.760
+ And when autonomous vehicles start
+
+44:44.760 --> 44:47.400
+ to work initially starting with truck drivers,
+
+44:47.400 --> 44:49.640
+ but eventually to all drivers, that's
+
+44:49.640 --> 44:52.040
+ another huge group of workers.
+
+44:52.040 --> 44:55.560
+ So I see modest numbers in the next five years,
+
+44:55.560 --> 44:58.080
+ but increasing rapidly after that.
+
+44:58.080 --> 45:01.240
+ On the worry of the jobs that are in danger
+
+45:01.240 --> 45:04.320
+ and the gradual loss of jobs, I'm not
+
+45:04.320 --> 45:06.680
+ sure if you're familiar with Andrew Yang.
+
+45:06.680 --> 45:07.800
+ Yes, I am.
+
+45:07.800 --> 45:10.560
+ So there's a candidate for president of the United States
+
+45:10.560 --> 45:14.960
+ whose platform, Andrew Yang, is based around, in part,
+
+45:14.960 --> 45:17.680
+ around job loss due to automation,
+
+45:17.680 --> 45:21.120
+ and also, in addition, the need, perhaps,
+
+45:21.120 --> 45:26.120
+ of universal basic income to support jobs that are folks who
+
+45:26.120 --> 45:28.560
+ lose their job due to automation and so on,
+
+45:28.560 --> 45:31.960
+ and in general, support people under complex,
+
+45:31.960 --> 45:34.320
+ unstable job market.
+
+45:34.320 --> 45:36.720
+ So what are your thoughts about his concerns,
+
+45:36.720 --> 45:40.000
+ him as a candidate, his ideas in general?
+
+45:40.000 --> 45:44.600
+ I think his thinking is generally in the right direction,
+
+45:44.600 --> 45:48.440
+ but his approach as a presidential candidate
+
+45:48.440 --> 45:52.240
+ may be a little bit ahead at the time.
+
+45:52.240 --> 45:56.080
+ I think the displacements will happen,
+
+45:56.080 --> 45:58.280
+ but will they happen soon enough for people
+
+45:58.280 --> 46:00.480
+ to agree to vote for him?
+
+46:00.480 --> 46:03.760
+ The unemployment numbers are not very high yet.
+
+46:03.760 --> 46:07.600
+ And I think he and I have the same challenge.
+
+46:07.600 --> 46:11.520
+ If I want to theoretically convince people this is an issue
+
+46:11.520 --> 46:13.880
+ and he wants to become the president,
+
+46:13.880 --> 46:17.760
+ people have to see how can this be the case when
+
+46:17.760 --> 46:19.680
+ unemployment numbers are low.
+
+46:19.680 --> 46:21.360
+ So that is the challenge.
+
+46:21.360 --> 46:27.360
+ And I think I do agree with him on the displacement issue,
+
+46:27.360 --> 46:32.280
+ on universal basic income, at a very vanilla level.
+
+46:32.280 --> 46:36.800
+ I don't agree with it because I think the main issue
+
+46:36.800 --> 46:38.320
+ is retraining.
+
+46:38.320 --> 46:43.200
+ So people need to be incented not by just giving a monthly
+
+46:43.200 --> 46:47.160
+ $2,000 check or $1,000 check and do whatever they want
+
+46:47.160 --> 46:50.920
+ because they don't have the know how
+
+46:50.920 --> 46:56.840
+ to know what to retrain to go into what type of a job
+
+46:56.840 --> 46:58.640
+ and guidance is needed.
+
+46:58.640 --> 47:01.720
+ And retraining is needed because historically
+
+47:01.720 --> 47:05.080
+ in technology revolutions, when routine jobs were displaced,
+
+47:05.080 --> 47:06.920
+ new routine jobs came up.
+
+47:06.920 --> 47:09.400
+ So there was always room for that.
+
+47:09.400 --> 47:12.640
+ But with AI and automation, the whole point
+
+47:12.640 --> 47:15.320
+ is replacing all routine jobs eventually.
+
+47:15.320 --> 47:17.840
+ So there will be fewer and fewer routine jobs.
+
+47:17.840 --> 47:22.640
+ And AI will create jobs, but it won't create routine jobs
+
+47:22.640 --> 47:24.840
+ because if it creates routine jobs,
+
+47:24.840 --> 47:26.880
+ why wouldn't AI just do it?
+
+47:26.880 --> 47:30.360
+ So therefore, the people who are losing the jobs
+
+47:30.360 --> 47:32.280
+ are losing routine jobs.
+
+47:32.280 --> 47:35.720
+ The jobs that are becoming available are nonroutine jobs.
+
+47:35.720 --> 47:39.320
+ So the social stipend needs to be put in place
+
+47:39.320 --> 47:42.040
+ is for the routine workers who lost their jobs
+
+47:42.040 --> 47:46.120
+ to be retrained maybe in six months, maybe in three years.
+
+47:46.120 --> 47:48.560
+ Takes a while to retrain on the nonroutine job
+
+47:48.560 --> 47:51.360
+ and then take on a job that will last
+
+47:51.360 --> 47:53.400
+ for that person's lifetime.
+
+47:53.400 --> 47:56.160
+ Now, having said that, if you look deeply
+
+47:56.160 --> 47:58.240
+ into Andrew's document, he does cater for that.
+
+47:58.240 --> 48:03.240
+ So I'm not disagreeing with what he's trying to do.
+
+48:03.280 --> 48:06.360
+ But for simplification, sometimes he just says UBI,
+
+48:06.360 --> 48:08.760
+ but simple UBI wouldn't work.
+
+48:08.760 --> 48:10.600
+ And I think you've mentioned elsewhere
+
+48:10.600 --> 48:15.600
+ that the goal isn't necessarily to give people enough money
+
+48:15.760 --> 48:19.120
+ to survive or live or even to prosper.
+
+48:19.120 --> 48:22.800
+ The point is to give them a job that gives them meaning.
+
+48:22.800 --> 48:25.600
+ That meaning is extremely important.
+
+48:25.600 --> 48:28.600
+ That our employment, at least in the United States
+
+48:28.600 --> 48:31.200
+ and perhaps it cares across the world,
+
+48:31.200 --> 48:34.600
+ provides something that's, forgive me for saying,
+
+48:34.600 --> 48:36.960
+ greater than money, it provides meaning.
+
+48:38.400 --> 48:43.400
+ So now what kind of jobs do you think can't be automated?
+
+48:44.840 --> 48:46.600
+ You talk a little bit about creativity
+
+48:46.600 --> 48:48.200
+ and compassion in your book.
+
+48:48.200 --> 48:50.720
+ What aspects do you think it's difficult
+
+48:50.720 --> 48:52.320
+ to automate for an AI system?
+
+48:52.320 --> 48:57.320
+ Because an AI system is currently merely optimizing.
+
+48:57.360 --> 49:00.120
+ It's not able to reason, plan,
+
+49:00.120 --> 49:02.920
+ or think creatively or strategically.
+
+49:02.920 --> 49:05.320
+ It's not able to deal with complex problems.
+
+49:05.320 --> 49:09.520
+ It can't come up with a new problem and solve it.
+
+49:09.520 --> 49:12.320
+ A human needs to find the problem
+
+49:12.320 --> 49:15.520
+ and pose it as an optimization problem,
+
+49:15.520 --> 49:17.520
+ then have the AI work at it.
+
+49:17.520 --> 49:21.320
+ So an AI would have a very hard time
+
+49:21.320 --> 49:23.320
+ discovering a new drug
+
+49:23.320 --> 49:26.320
+ or discovering a new style of painting
+
+49:27.320 --> 49:30.320
+ or dealing with complex tasks
+
+49:30.320 --> 49:32.320
+ such as managing a company
+
+49:32.320 --> 49:35.320
+ that isn't just about optimizing the bottom line,
+
+49:35.320 --> 49:39.320
+ but also about employee satisfaction, corporate brand,
+
+49:39.320 --> 49:40.320
+ and many, many other things.
+
+49:40.320 --> 49:44.320
+ So that is one category of things.
+
+49:44.320 --> 49:48.320
+ And because these things are challenging, creative, complex,
+
+49:48.320 --> 49:52.320
+ doing them creates a higher degree of satisfaction
+
+49:52.320 --> 49:55.320
+ and therefore appealing to our desire for working,
+
+49:55.320 --> 49:57.320
+ which isn't just to make the money,
+
+49:57.320 --> 49:58.320
+ make the ends meet,
+
+49:58.320 --> 50:00.320
+ but also that we've accomplished something
+
+50:00.320 --> 50:03.320
+ that others maybe can't do or can't do as well.
+
+50:04.320 --> 50:07.320
+ Another type of job that is much numerous
+
+50:07.320 --> 50:09.320
+ would be compassionate jobs,
+
+50:09.320 --> 50:14.320
+ jobs that require compassion, empathy, human touch, human trust.
+
+50:14.320 --> 50:18.320
+ AI can't do that because AI is cold, calculating,
+
+50:18.320 --> 50:22.320
+ and even if it can fake that to some extent,
+
+50:22.320 --> 50:26.320
+ it will make errors and that will make it look very silly.
+
+50:26.320 --> 50:29.320
+ And also, I think even if AI did okay,
+
+50:29.320 --> 50:33.320
+ people would want to interact with another person,
+
+50:33.320 --> 50:38.320
+ whether it's for some kind of a service or a teacher or a doctor
+
+50:38.320 --> 50:41.320
+ or a concierge or a masseuse or bartender.
+
+50:41.320 --> 50:46.320
+ There are so many jobs where people just don't want to interact
+
+50:46.320 --> 50:49.320
+ with a cold robot or software.
+
+50:50.320 --> 50:53.320
+ I've had an entrepreneur who built an elderly care robot
+
+50:53.320 --> 50:58.320
+ and they found that the elderly really only use it for customer service.
+
+50:58.320 --> 51:00.320
+ But not to service the product,
+
+51:00.320 --> 51:05.320
+ but they click on customer service and the video of a person comes up
+
+51:05.320 --> 51:07.320
+ and then the person says,
+
+51:07.320 --> 51:11.320
+ how come my daughter didn't call me? Let me show you a picture of her grandkids.
+
+51:11.320 --> 51:15.320
+ So people earn for that, people people interaction.
+
+51:15.320 --> 51:19.320
+ So even if robots improved, people just don't want it.
+
+51:19.320 --> 51:21.320
+ And those jobs are going to be increasing
+
+51:21.320 --> 51:24.320
+ because AI will create a lot of value,
+
+51:24.320 --> 51:29.320
+ $16 trillion to the world in next 11 years according to PWC
+
+51:29.320 --> 51:34.320
+ and that will give people money to enjoy services,
+
+51:34.320 --> 51:39.320
+ whether it's eating a gourmet meal or tourism and traveling
+
+51:39.320 --> 51:41.320
+ or having concierge services.
+
+51:41.320 --> 51:44.320
+ The services revolving around, you know,
+
+51:44.320 --> 51:47.320
+ every dollar of that $16 trillion will be tremendous.
+
+51:47.320 --> 51:52.320
+ It will create more opportunities to service the people who did well
+
+51:52.320 --> 51:55.320
+ through AI with things.
+
+51:55.320 --> 52:01.320
+ But even at the same time, the entire society is very much short
+
+52:01.320 --> 52:05.320
+ in need of many service oriented, compassionate oriented jobs.
+
+52:05.320 --> 52:10.320
+ The best example is probably in healthcare services.
+
+52:10.320 --> 52:15.320
+ There's going to be 2 million new jobs, not counting replacement,
+
+52:15.320 --> 52:20.320
+ just brand new incremental jobs in the next six years in healthcare services.
+
+52:20.320 --> 52:24.320
+ That includes nurses orderly in the hospital,
+
+52:24.320 --> 52:29.320
+ elderly care and also at home care.
+
+52:29.320 --> 52:31.320
+ It's particularly lacking.
+
+52:31.320 --> 52:34.320
+ And those jobs are not likely to be filled.
+
+52:34.320 --> 52:36.320
+ So there's likely to be a shortage.
+
+52:36.320 --> 52:41.320
+ And the reason they're not filled is simply because they don't pay very well
+
+52:41.320 --> 52:47.320
+ and that the social status of these jobs are not very good.
+
+52:47.320 --> 52:52.320
+ So they pay about half as much as a heavy equipment operator,
+
+52:52.320 --> 52:55.320
+ which will be replaced a lot sooner.
+
+52:55.320 --> 52:59.320
+ And they pay probably comparably to someone on the assembly line.
+
+52:59.320 --> 53:03.320
+ And so if we're ignoring all the other issues
+
+53:03.320 --> 53:07.320
+ and just think about satisfaction from one's job,
+
+53:07.320 --> 53:11.320
+ someone repetitively doing the same manual action at an assembly line,
+
+53:11.320 --> 53:14.320
+ that can't create a lot of job satisfaction.
+
+53:14.320 --> 53:17.320
+ But someone taking care of a sick person
+
+53:17.320 --> 53:21.320
+ and getting a hug and thank you from that person and the family,
+
+53:21.320 --> 53:24.320
+ I think is quite satisfying.
+
+53:24.320 --> 53:28.320
+ So if only we could fix the pay for service jobs,
+
+53:28.320 --> 53:33.320
+ there are plenty of jobs that require some training or a lot of training
+
+53:33.320 --> 53:36.320
+ for the people coming off the routine jobs to take.
+
+53:36.320 --> 53:43.320
+ We can easily imagine someone who was maybe a cashier at the grocery store,
+
+53:43.320 --> 53:49.320
+ at stores become automated, learns to become a nurse or at home care.
+
+53:49.320 --> 53:54.320
+ Also, I do want to point out the blue collar jobs are going to stay around a bit longer,
+
+53:54.320 --> 53:57.320
+ some of them quite a bit longer.
+
+53:57.320 --> 54:01.320
+ AI cannot be told, go clean an arbitrary home.
+
+54:01.320 --> 54:03.320
+ That's incredibly hard.
+
+54:03.320 --> 54:07.320
+ Arguably is an L5 level of difficulty.
+
+54:07.320 --> 54:09.320
+ And then AI cannot be a good plumber,
+
+54:09.320 --> 54:12.320
+ because plumber is almost like a mini detective
+
+54:12.320 --> 54:15.320
+ that has to figure out where the leak came from.
+
+54:15.320 --> 54:22.320
+ So yet AI probably can be an assembly line and auto mechanic and so on.
+
+54:22.320 --> 54:26.320
+ So one has to study which blue collar jobs are going away
+
+54:26.320 --> 54:30.320
+ and facilitate retraining for the people to go into the ones that won't go away
+
+54:30.320 --> 54:32.320
+ or maybe even will increase.
+
+54:32.320 --> 54:39.320
+ I mean, it is fascinating that it's easier to build a world champion chess player
+
+54:39.320 --> 54:41.320
+ than it is to build a mediocre plumber.
+
+54:41.320 --> 54:43.320
+ Yes, very true.
+
+54:43.320 --> 54:47.320
+ And to AI, and that goes counterintuitive to a lot of people's understanding
+
+54:47.320 --> 54:49.320
+ of what artificial intelligence is.
+
+54:49.320 --> 54:53.320
+ So it sounds, I mean, you're painting a pretty optimistic picture
+
+54:53.320 --> 54:56.320
+ about retraining, about the number of jobs
+
+54:56.320 --> 55:01.320
+ and actually the meaningful nature of those jobs once we automate repetitive tasks.
+
+55:01.320 --> 55:07.320
+ So overall, are you optimistic about the future
+
+55:07.320 --> 55:11.320
+ where much of the repetitive tasks are automated,
+
+55:11.320 --> 55:15.320
+ that there is a lot of room for humans, for the compassionate,
+
+55:15.320 --> 55:19.320
+ for the creative input that only humans can provide?
+
+55:19.320 --> 55:23.320
+ I am optimistic if we start to take action.
+
+55:23.320 --> 55:27.320
+ If we have no action in the next five years,
+
+55:27.320 --> 55:33.320
+ I think it's going to be hard to deal with the devastating losses that will emerge.
+
+55:33.320 --> 55:39.320
+ So if we start thinking about retraining, maybe with the low hanging fruits,
+
+55:39.320 --> 55:45.320
+ explaining to vocational schools why they should train more plumbers than auto mechanics,
+
+55:45.320 --> 55:53.320
+ maybe starting with some government subsidy for corporations to have more training positions.
+
+55:53.320 --> 55:57.320
+ We start to explain to people why retraining is important.
+
+55:57.320 --> 56:00.320
+ We start to think about what the future of education,
+
+56:00.320 --> 56:04.320
+ how that needs to be tweaked for the era of AI.
+
+56:04.320 --> 56:06.320
+ If we start to make incremental progress,
+
+56:06.320 --> 56:09.320
+ and the greater number of people understand,
+
+56:09.320 --> 56:12.320
+ then there's no reason to think we can't deal with this,
+
+56:12.320 --> 56:16.320
+ because this technological revolution is arguably similar to
+
+56:16.320 --> 56:20.320
+ what electricity, industrial revolutions, and internet brought about.
+
+56:20.320 --> 56:24.320
+ Do you think there's a role for policy, for governments to step in
+
+56:24.320 --> 56:27.320
+ to help with policy to create a better world?
+
+56:27.320 --> 56:32.320
+ Absolutely, and the governments don't have to believe
+
+56:32.320 --> 56:39.320
+ that unemployment will go up, and they don't have to believe automation will be this fast to do something.
+
+56:39.320 --> 56:42.320
+ Revamping vocational school would be one example.
+
+56:42.320 --> 56:47.320
+ Another is if there's a big gap in healthcare service employment,
+
+56:47.320 --> 56:54.320
+ and we know that a country's population is growing older and more longevity living older,
+
+56:54.320 --> 56:59.320
+ because people over 80 require five times as much care as those under 80,
+
+56:59.320 --> 57:04.320
+ then it is a good time to incent training programs for elderly care,
+
+57:04.320 --> 57:07.320
+ to find ways to improve the pay.
+
+57:07.320 --> 57:13.320
+ Maybe one way would be to offer as part of Medicare or the equivalent program
+
+57:13.320 --> 57:18.320
+ for people over 80 to be entitled to a few hours of elderly care at home,
+
+57:18.320 --> 57:21.320
+ and then that might be reimbursable,
+
+57:21.320 --> 57:28.320
+ and that will stimulate the service industry around the policy.
+
+57:28.320 --> 57:32.320
+ Do you have concerns about large entities,
+
+57:32.320 --> 57:38.320
+ whether it's governments or companies, controlling the future of AI development in general?
+
+57:38.320 --> 57:40.320
+ So we talked about companies.
+
+57:40.320 --> 57:48.320
+ Do you have a better sense that governments can better represent the interest of the people
+
+57:48.320 --> 57:54.320
+ than companies, or do you believe companies are better at representing the interest of the people?
+
+57:54.320 --> 57:56.320
+ Or is there no easy answer?
+
+57:56.320 --> 57:59.320
+ I don't think there's an easy answer because it's a double edged sword.
+
+57:59.320 --> 58:06.320
+ The companies and governments can provide better services with more access to data and more access to AI,
+
+58:06.320 --> 58:13.320
+ but that also leads to greater power, which can lead to uncontrollable problems,
+
+58:13.320 --> 58:17.320
+ whether it's monopoly or corruption in the government.
+
+58:17.320 --> 58:24.320
+ So I think one has to be careful to look at how much data that companies and governments have,
+
+58:24.320 --> 58:29.320
+ and some kind of checks and balances would be helpful.
+
+58:29.320 --> 58:33.320
+ So again, I come from Russia.
+
+58:33.320 --> 58:36.320
+ There's something called the Cold War.
+
+58:36.320 --> 58:40.320
+ So let me ask a difficult question here, looking at conflict.
+
+58:40.320 --> 58:45.320
+ Steven Pinker wrote a great book that conflict all over the world is decreasing in general.
+
+58:45.320 --> 58:51.320
+ But do you have a sense that having written the book AI Superpowers,
+
+58:51.320 --> 58:57.320
+ do you see a major international conflict potentially arising between major nations,
+
+58:57.320 --> 59:02.320
+ whatever they are, whether it's Russia, China, European nations, United States,
+
+59:02.320 --> 59:09.320
+ or others in the next 10, 20, 50 years around AI, around the digital space, cyber space?
+
+59:09.320 --> 59:12.320
+ Do you worry about that?
+
+59:12.320 --> 59:19.320
+ Is that something we need to think about and try to alleviate or prevent?
+
+59:19.320 --> 59:22.320
+ I believe in greater engagement.
+
+59:22.320 --> 59:33.320
+ A lot of the worries about more powerful AI are based on an arms race metaphor.
+
+59:33.320 --> 59:41.320
+ And when you extrapolate into military kinds of scenarios,
+
+59:41.320 --> 59:48.320
+ AI can automate autonomous weapons that needs to be controlled somehow.
+
+59:48.320 --> 59:57.320
+ And autonomous decision making can lead to not enough time to fix international crises.
+
+59:57.320 --> 1:00:02.320
+ So I actually believe a Cold War mentality would be very dangerous
+
+1:00:02.320 --> 1:00:07.320
+ because should two countries rely on AI to make certain decisions
+
+1:00:07.320 --> 1:00:11.320
+ and they don't even talk to each other, they do their own scenario planning,
+
+1:00:11.320 --> 1:00:14.320
+ then something could easily go wrong.
+
+1:00:14.320 --> 1:00:24.320
+ I think engagement, interaction, some protocols to avoid inadvertent disasters is actually needed.
+
+1:00:24.320 --> 1:00:28.320
+ So it's natural for each country to want to be the best,
+
+1:00:28.320 --> 1:00:34.320
+ whether it's in nuclear technologies or AI or bio.
+
+1:00:34.320 --> 1:00:40.320
+ But I think it's important to realize if each country has a black box AI
+
+1:00:40.320 --> 1:00:48.320
+ and don't talk to each other, that probably presents greater challenges to humanity
+
+1:00:48.320 --> 1:00:50.320
+ than if they interacted.
+
+1:00:50.320 --> 1:00:56.320
+ I think there can still be competition, but with some degree of protocol for interaction.
+
+1:00:56.320 --> 1:01:01.320
+ Just like when there was a nuclear competition,
+
+1:01:01.320 --> 1:01:07.320
+ there were some protocol for deterrence among US, Russia, and China.
+
+1:01:07.320 --> 1:01:10.320
+ And I think that engagement is needed.
+
+1:01:10.320 --> 1:01:15.320
+ So of course, we're still far from AI presenting that kind of danger.
+
+1:01:15.320 --> 1:01:22.320
+ But what I worry the most about is the level of engagement seems to be coming down.
+
+1:01:22.320 --> 1:01:25.320
+ The level of distrust seems to be going up,
+
+1:01:25.320 --> 1:01:32.320
+ especially from the US towards other large countries such as China and Russia.
+
+1:01:32.320 --> 1:01:34.320
+ Is there a way to make that better?
+
+1:01:34.320 --> 1:01:40.320
+ So that's beautifully put, level of engagement and even just basic trust and communication
+
+1:01:40.320 --> 1:01:52.320
+ as opposed to making artificial enemies out of particular countries.
+
+1:01:52.320 --> 1:02:01.320
+ Do you have a sense how we can make it better, actionable items that as a society we can take on?
+
+1:02:01.320 --> 1:02:10.320
+ I'm not an expert at geopolitics, but I would say that we look pretty foolish as humankind
+
+1:02:10.320 --> 1:02:19.320
+ when we are faced with the opportunity to create $16 trillion for humanity.
+
+1:02:19.320 --> 1:02:29.320
+ And yet we're not solving fundamental problems with parts of the world still in poverty.
+
+1:02:29.320 --> 1:02:34.320
+ And for the first time, we have the resources to overcome poverty and hunger.
+
+1:02:34.320 --> 1:02:38.320
+ We're not using it on that, but we're fueling competition among superpowers.
+
+1:02:38.320 --> 1:02:41.320
+ And that's a very unfortunate thing.
+
+1:02:41.320 --> 1:02:54.320
+ If we become utopian for a moment, imagine a benevolent world government that has this $16 trillion
+
+1:02:54.320 --> 1:03:02.320
+ and maybe some AI to figure out how to use it to deal with diseases and problems and hate and things like that.
+
+1:03:02.320 --> 1:03:04.320
+ World would be a lot better off.
+
+1:03:04.320 --> 1:03:07.320
+ So what is wrong with the current world?
+
+1:03:07.320 --> 1:03:13.320
+ I think the people with more skill than I should think about this.
+
+1:03:13.320 --> 1:03:19.320
+ And then the geopolitics issue with superpower competition is one side of the issue.
+
+1:03:19.320 --> 1:03:29.320
+ There's another side which I worry maybe even more, which is as the $16 trillion all gets made by U.S. and China
+
+1:03:29.320 --> 1:03:34.320
+ and a few of the other developed countries, the poorer country will get nothing
+
+1:03:34.320 --> 1:03:42.320
+ because they don't have technology and the wealth disparity and inequality will increase.
+
+1:03:42.320 --> 1:03:50.320
+ So a poorer country with a large population will not only benefit from the AI boom or other technology booms
+
+1:03:50.320 --> 1:03:57.320
+ but they will have their workers who previously had hoped they could do the China model and do outsource manufacturing
+
+1:03:57.320 --> 1:04:02.320
+ or the India model so they could do the outsource process or call center
+
+1:04:02.320 --> 1:04:05.320
+ while all those jobs are going to be gone in 10 or 15 years.
+
+1:04:05.320 --> 1:04:14.320
+ So the individual citizen may be a net liability, I mean financially speaking, to a poorer country
+
+1:04:14.320 --> 1:04:19.320
+ and not an asset to claw itself out of poverty.
+
+1:04:19.320 --> 1:04:29.320
+ So in that kind of situation, these large countries with not much tech are going to be facing a downward spiral
+
+1:04:29.320 --> 1:04:37.320
+ and it's unclear what could be done and then when we look back and say there's $16 trillion being created
+
+1:04:37.320 --> 1:04:43.320
+ and it's all being kept by U.S. China and other developed countries, it just doesn't feel right.
+
+1:04:43.320 --> 1:04:50.320
+ So I hope people who know about geopolitics can find solutions that's beyond my expertise.
+
+1:04:50.320 --> 1:04:54.320
+ So different countries that we've talked about have different value systems.
+
+1:04:54.320 --> 1:05:02.320
+ If you look at the United States to an almost extreme degree, there is an absolute desire for freedom of speech.
+
+1:05:02.320 --> 1:05:14.320
+ If you look at a country where I was raised, that desire just amongst the people is not as elevated as it is to basically fundamental level
+
+1:05:14.320 --> 1:05:17.320
+ to the essence of what it means to be America, right?
+
+1:05:17.320 --> 1:05:20.320
+ And the same is true with China, there's different value systems.
+
+1:05:20.320 --> 1:05:30.320
+ There is some censorship of internet content that China and Russia and many other countries undertake.
+
+1:05:30.320 --> 1:05:40.320
+ Do you see that having effects on innovation, other aspects of some of the tech stuff, AI development we talked about
+
+1:05:40.320 --> 1:05:52.320
+ and maybe from another angle, do you see that changing in different ways over the next 10 years, 20 years, 50 years as China continues to grow
+
+1:05:52.320 --> 1:05:55.320
+ as it does now in its tech innovation?
+
+1:05:55.320 --> 1:06:08.320
+ There's a common belief that full freedom of speech and expression is correlated with creativity, which is correlated with entrepreneurial success.
+
+1:06:08.320 --> 1:06:15.320
+ I think empirically we have seen that is not true and China has been successful.
+
+1:06:15.320 --> 1:06:25.320
+ That's not to say the fundamental values are not right or not the best, but it's just that perfect correlation isn't there.
+
+1:06:25.320 --> 1:06:36.320
+ It's hard to read the tea leaves on opening up or not in any country and I've not been very good at that in my past predictions.
+
+1:06:36.320 --> 1:06:46.320
+ But I do believe every country shares some fundamental value, a lot of fundamental values for the long term.
+
+1:06:46.320 --> 1:07:02.320
+ So, you know, China is drafting its privacy policy for individual citizens and they don't look that different from the American or European ones.
+
+1:07:02.320 --> 1:07:13.320
+ So, people do want to protect their privacy and have the opportunity to express and I think the fundamental values are there.
+
+1:07:13.320 --> 1:07:21.320
+ The question is in the execution and timing, how soon or when will that start to open up?
+
+1:07:21.320 --> 1:07:31.320
+ So, as long as each government knows, ultimately people want that kind of protection, there should be a plan to move towards that.
+
+1:07:31.320 --> 1:07:35.320
+ As to when or how, again, I'm not an expert.
+
+1:07:35.320 --> 1:07:38.320
+ On the point of privacy to me, it's really interesting.
+
+1:07:38.320 --> 1:07:44.320
+ So, AI needs data to create a personalized awesome experience.
+
+1:07:44.320 --> 1:07:47.320
+ I'm just speaking generally in terms of products.
+
+1:07:47.320 --> 1:07:53.320
+ And then we have currently, depending on the age and depending on the demographics of who we're talking about,
+
+1:07:53.320 --> 1:07:58.320
+ some people are more or less concerned about the amount of data they hand over.
+
+1:07:58.320 --> 1:08:03.320
+ So, in your view, how do we get this balance right?
+
+1:08:03.320 --> 1:08:09.320
+ That we provide an amazing experience to people that use products.
+
+1:08:09.320 --> 1:08:15.320
+ You look at Facebook, you know, the more Facebook knows about you, yes, it's scary to say.
+
+1:08:15.320 --> 1:08:20.320
+ The better it can probably, a better experience it can probably create.
+
+1:08:20.320 --> 1:08:24.320
+ So, in your view, how do we get that balance right?
+
+1:08:24.320 --> 1:08:38.320
+ Yes, I think a lot of people have a misunderstanding that it's okay and possible to just rip all the data out from a provider and give it back to you.
+
+1:08:38.320 --> 1:08:43.320
+ So, you can deny them access to further data and still enjoy the services we have.
+
+1:08:43.320 --> 1:08:48.320
+ If we take back all the data, all the services will give us nonsense.
+
+1:08:48.320 --> 1:08:57.320
+ We'll no longer be able to use products that function well in terms of, you know, right ranking, right products, right user experience.
+
+1:08:57.320 --> 1:09:04.320
+ So, yet I do understand we don't want to permit misuse of the data.
+
+1:09:04.320 --> 1:09:16.320
+ From legal policy standpoint, I think there can be severe punishment for those who have egregious misuse of the data.
+
+1:09:16.320 --> 1:09:19.320
+ That's, I think, a good first step.
+
+1:09:19.320 --> 1:09:27.320
+ Actually, China on this aspect has very strong laws about people who sell or give data to other companies.
+
+1:09:27.320 --> 1:09:40.320
+ And that over the past few years, since that law came into effect, pretty much eradicated the illegal distribution sharing of data.
+
+1:09:40.320 --> 1:09:52.320
+ Additionally, I think giving, I think technology is often a very good way to solve technology misuse.
+
+1:09:52.320 --> 1:09:58.320
+ So, can we come up with new technologies that will let us have our cake and eat it too?
+
+1:09:58.320 --> 1:10:07.320
+ People are looking into homomorphic encryption, which is letting you keep the data, have it encrypted and train encrypted data.
+
+1:10:07.320 --> 1:10:13.320
+ Of course, we haven't solved that one yet, but that kind of direction may be worth pursuing.
+
+1:10:13.320 --> 1:10:22.320
+ Also federated learning, which would allow one hospital to train on its hospitals patient data fully because they have a license for that.
+
+1:10:22.320 --> 1:10:28.320
+ And then hospitals would then share their models, not data, but models to create a supra AI.
+
+1:10:28.320 --> 1:10:30.320
+ And that also maybe has some promise.
+
+1:10:30.320 --> 1:10:39.320
+ So I would want to encourage us to be open minded and think of this as not just the policy binary yes no,
+
+1:10:39.320 --> 1:10:48.320
+ but letting the technologists try to find solutions to let us have our cake and eat it too, or have most of our cake and eat most of it too.
+
+1:10:48.320 --> 1:10:55.320
+ Finally, I think giving each end user a choice is important and having transparency is important.
+
+1:10:55.320 --> 1:11:04.320
+ Also, I think that's universal, but the choice you give to the user should not be at a granular level that the user cannot understand.
+
+1:11:04.320 --> 1:11:12.320
+ GDPR today causes all these pop ups of yes, no, will you give this site this right to use this part of your data?
+
+1:11:12.320 --> 1:11:20.320
+ I don't think any user understands what they're saying yes or no to, and I suspect most are just saying yes because they don't understand it.
+
+1:11:20.320 --> 1:11:30.320
+ So while GDPR in its current implementation has lived up to its promise of transparency and user choice,
+
+1:11:30.320 --> 1:11:39.320
+ it implemented it in such a way that really didn't deliver the spirit of GDPR.
+
+1:11:39.320 --> 1:11:41.320
+ It fit the letter, but not the spirit.
+
+1:11:41.320 --> 1:11:50.320
+ So again, I think we need to think about is there a way to fit the spirit of GDPR by using some kind of technology?
+
+1:11:50.320 --> 1:11:52.320
+ Can we have a slider?
+
+1:11:52.320 --> 1:12:01.320
+ That's an AI trying to figure out how much you want to slide between perfect protection security of your personal data
+
+1:12:01.320 --> 1:12:07.320
+ versus high degree of convenience with some risks of not having full privacy.
+
+1:12:07.320 --> 1:12:11.320
+ Each user should have some preference and that gives you the user choice,
+
+1:12:11.320 --> 1:12:18.320
+ but maybe we should turn the problem on its head and ask can there be an AI algorithm that can customize this
+
+1:12:18.320 --> 1:12:24.320
+ because we can understand the slider, but we sure cannot understand every pop up question.
+
+1:12:24.320 --> 1:12:30.320
+ And I think getting that right requires getting the balance between what we talked about earlier,
+
+1:12:30.320 --> 1:12:36.320
+ which is heart and soul versus profit driven decisions and strategy.
+
+1:12:36.320 --> 1:12:45.320
+ I think from my perspective, the best way to make a lot of money in the long term is to keep your heart and soul intact.
+
+1:12:45.320 --> 1:12:53.320
+ I think getting that slider right in the short term may feel like you'll be sacrificing profit,
+
+1:12:53.320 --> 1:12:59.320
+ but in the long term, you'll be getting user trust and providing a great experience.
+
+1:12:59.320 --> 1:13:01.320
+ Do you share that kind of view in general?
+
+1:13:01.320 --> 1:13:11.320
+ Yes, absolutely. I sure would hope there is a way we can do long term projects that really do the right thing.
+
+1:13:11.320 --> 1:13:16.320
+ I think a lot of people who embrace GDPR, their hearts in the right place.
+
+1:13:16.320 --> 1:13:20.320
+ I think they just need to figure out how to build a solution.
+
+1:13:20.320 --> 1:13:24.320
+ I've heard utopians talk about solutions that get me excited,
+
+1:13:24.320 --> 1:13:29.320
+ but not sure how in the current funding environment they can get started, right?
+
+1:13:29.320 --> 1:13:37.320
+ People talk about, imagine this crowdsourced data collection that we all trust,
+
+1:13:37.320 --> 1:13:45.320
+ and then we have these agents that we ask them to ask the trusted agent.
+
+1:13:45.320 --> 1:13:48.320
+ That agent only, that platform.
+
+1:13:48.320 --> 1:14:02.320
+ A trusted joint platform that we all believe is trustworthy that can give us all the close loop personal suggestions
+
+1:14:02.320 --> 1:14:07.320
+ by the new social network, new search engine, new ecommerce engine
+
+1:14:07.320 --> 1:14:12.320
+ that has access to even more of our data, but not directly but indirectly.
+
+1:14:12.320 --> 1:14:18.320
+ I think that general concept of licensing to some trusted engine
+
+1:14:18.320 --> 1:14:22.320
+ and finding a way to trust that engine seems like a great idea,
+
+1:14:22.320 --> 1:14:27.320
+ but if you think how long it's going to take to implement and tweak and develop it right,
+
+1:14:27.320 --> 1:14:31.320
+ as well as to collect all the trust and the data from the people,
+
+1:14:31.320 --> 1:14:34.320
+ it's beyond the current cycle of venture capital.
+
+1:14:34.320 --> 1:14:37.320
+ How do you do that is a big question.
+
+1:14:37.320 --> 1:14:44.320
+ You've recently had a fight with cancer, stage 4 lymphoma,
+
+1:14:44.320 --> 1:14:54.320
+ and in a sort of deep personal level, what did it feel like in the darker moments to face your own mortality?
+
+1:14:54.320 --> 1:14:57.320
+ Well, I've been the workaholic my whole life,
+
+1:14:57.320 --> 1:15:04.320
+ and I've basically worked 9.96, 9am to 9pm, 6 days a week, roughly.
+
+1:15:04.320 --> 1:15:10.320
+ And I didn't really pay a lot of attention to my family, friends, and people who loved me,
+
+1:15:10.320 --> 1:15:14.320
+ and my life revolved around optimizing for work.
+
+1:15:14.320 --> 1:15:25.320
+ While my work was not routine, my optimization really made my life basically a very mechanical process.
+
+1:15:25.320 --> 1:15:36.320
+ But I got a lot of highs out of it because of accomplishments that I thought were really important and dear and the highest priority to me.
+
+1:15:36.320 --> 1:15:41.320
+ But when I faced mortality and the possible death in matter of months,
+
+1:15:41.320 --> 1:15:45.320
+ I suddenly realized that this really meant nothing to me,
+
+1:15:45.320 --> 1:15:48.320
+ that I didn't feel like working for another minute,
+
+1:15:48.320 --> 1:15:54.320
+ that if I had 6 months left in my life, I would spend it all with my loved ones.
+
+1:15:54.320 --> 1:16:02.320
+ And thanking them, giving them love back, and apologizing to them that I lived my life the wrong way.
+
+1:16:02.320 --> 1:16:11.320
+ So that moment of reckoning caused me to really rethink that why we exist in this world
+
+1:16:11.320 --> 1:16:22.320
+ is something that we might be too much shaped by the society to think that success and accomplishments is why we live.
+
+1:16:22.320 --> 1:16:29.320
+ And while that can get you periodic successes and satisfaction,
+
+1:16:29.320 --> 1:16:35.320
+ it's really in them facing death, you see what's truly important to you.
+
+1:16:35.320 --> 1:16:41.320
+ So as a result of going through the challenges with cancer,
+
+1:16:41.320 --> 1:16:45.320
+ I've resolved to live a more balanced lifestyle.
+
+1:16:45.320 --> 1:16:48.320
+ I'm now in remission, knock on wood,
+
+1:16:48.320 --> 1:16:52.320
+ and I'm spending more time with my family.
+
+1:16:52.320 --> 1:16:54.320
+ My wife travels with me.
+
+1:16:54.320 --> 1:16:57.320
+ When my kids need me, I spend more time with them.
+
+1:16:57.320 --> 1:17:02.320
+ And before, I used to prioritize everything around work.
+
+1:17:02.320 --> 1:17:05.320
+ When I had a little bit of time, I would dole it out to my family.
+
+1:17:05.320 --> 1:17:09.320
+ Now, when my family needs something, really needs something,
+
+1:17:09.320 --> 1:17:12.320
+ I drop everything at work and go to them.
+
+1:17:12.320 --> 1:17:15.320
+ And then in the time remaining, I allocate to work.
+
+1:17:15.320 --> 1:17:18.320
+ But one's family is very understanding.
+
+1:17:18.320 --> 1:17:22.320
+ It's not like they will take 50 hours a week from me.
+
+1:17:22.320 --> 1:17:26.320
+ So I'm actually able to still work pretty hard,
+
+1:17:26.320 --> 1:17:28.320
+ maybe 10 hours less per week.
+
+1:17:28.320 --> 1:17:35.320
+ So I realize the most important thing in my life is really love and the people I love.
+
+1:17:35.320 --> 1:17:38.320
+ And I give that the highest priority.
+
+1:17:38.320 --> 1:17:40.320
+ It isn't the only thing I do.
+
+1:17:40.320 --> 1:17:45.320
+ But when that is needed, I put that at the top priority.
+
+1:17:45.320 --> 1:17:49.320
+ And I feel much better and I feel much more balanced.
+
+1:17:49.320 --> 1:17:56.320
+ And I think this also gives a hint as to a life of routine work,
+
+1:17:56.320 --> 1:17:58.320
+ a life of pursuit of numbers.
+
+1:17:58.320 --> 1:18:03.320
+ While my job was not routine, it wasn't pursuit of numbers.
+
+1:18:03.320 --> 1:18:05.320
+ Pursuit of, can I make more money?
+
+1:18:05.320 --> 1:18:07.320
+ Can I fund more great companies?
+
+1:18:07.320 --> 1:18:09.320
+ Can I raise more money?
+
+1:18:09.320 --> 1:18:13.320
+ Can I make sure our VC is ranked higher and higher every year?
+
+1:18:13.320 --> 1:18:20.320
+ This competitive nature of driving for bigger numbers and better numbers
+
+1:18:20.320 --> 1:18:27.320
+ became an endless pursuit of that's mechanical.
+
+1:18:27.320 --> 1:18:31.320
+ And bigger numbers really didn't make me happier.
+
+1:18:31.320 --> 1:18:36.320
+ And faced with death, I realized bigger numbers really meant nothing.
+
+1:18:36.320 --> 1:18:42.320
+ And what was important is that people who have given their heart and their love to me
+
+1:18:42.320 --> 1:18:45.320
+ deserve for me to do the same.
+
+1:18:45.320 --> 1:18:52.320
+ So there's deep profound truth in that, that everyone should hear and internalize.
+
+1:18:52.320 --> 1:18:56.320
+ And that's really powerful for you to say that.
+
+1:18:56.320 --> 1:19:02.320
+ I have to ask sort of a difficult question here.
+
+1:19:02.320 --> 1:19:07.320
+ So I've competed in sports my whole life, looking historically.
+
+1:19:07.320 --> 1:19:14.320
+ I'd like to challenge some aspect of that a little bit on the point of hard work.
+
+1:19:14.320 --> 1:19:20.320
+ That it feels that there are certain aspects that is the greatest,
+
+1:19:20.320 --> 1:19:26.320
+ the most beautiful aspects of human nature, is the ability to become obsessed,
+
+1:19:26.320 --> 1:19:33.320
+ of becoming extremely passionate to the point where, yes, flaws are revealed
+
+1:19:33.320 --> 1:19:36.320
+ and just giving yourself fully to a task.
+
+1:19:36.320 --> 1:19:41.320
+ That is, in another sense, you mentioned love being important,
+
+1:19:41.320 --> 1:19:47.320
+ but in another sense, this kind of obsession, this pure exhibition of passion and hard work
+
+1:19:47.320 --> 1:19:50.320
+ is truly what it means to be human.
+
+1:19:50.320 --> 1:19:53.320
+ What lessons should we take that's deeper?
+
+1:19:53.320 --> 1:19:55.320
+ Because you've accomplished incredible things.
+
+1:19:55.320 --> 1:19:57.320
+ Like chasing numbers.
+
+1:19:57.320 --> 1:20:01.320
+ But really, there's some incredible work there.
+
+1:20:01.320 --> 1:20:07.320
+ So how do you think about that when you look back in your 20s, your 30s?
+
+1:20:07.320 --> 1:20:10.320
+ What would you do differently?
+
+1:20:10.320 --> 1:20:16.320
+ Would you really take back some of the incredible hard work?
+
+1:20:16.320 --> 1:20:17.320
+ I would.
+
+1:20:17.320 --> 1:20:20.320
+ But it's in percentages, right?
+
+1:20:20.320 --> 1:20:22.320
+ We're both now computer scientists.
+
+1:20:22.320 --> 1:20:27.320
+ So I think when one balances one's life, when one is younger,
+
+1:20:27.320 --> 1:20:33.320
+ you might give a smaller percentage to family, but you would still give them high priority.
+
+1:20:33.320 --> 1:20:38.320
+ And when you get older, you would give a larger percentage to them and still the high priority.
+
+1:20:38.320 --> 1:20:43.320
+ And when you're near retirement, you give most of it to them and the highest priority.
+
+1:20:43.320 --> 1:20:50.320
+ So I think the key point is not that we would work 20 hours less for the whole life
+
+1:20:50.320 --> 1:20:56.320
+ and just spend it aimlessly with the family, but that when the family has a need,
+
+1:20:56.320 --> 1:21:02.320
+ when your wife is having a baby, when your daughter has a birthday,
+
+1:21:02.320 --> 1:21:07.320
+ or when they're depressed, or when they're celebrating something,
+
+1:21:07.320 --> 1:21:11.320
+ or when they have a get together, or when we have family time,
+
+1:21:11.320 --> 1:21:18.320
+ that is important for us to put down our phone and PC and be 100% with them.
+
+1:21:18.320 --> 1:21:26.320
+ And that priority on the things that really matter isn't going to be so taxing
+
+1:21:26.320 --> 1:21:32.320
+ that it would eliminate or even dramatically reduce our accomplishments.
+
+1:21:32.320 --> 1:21:36.320
+ It might have some impact, but it might also have other impact
+
+1:21:36.320 --> 1:21:39.320
+ because if you have a happier family, maybe you fight less.
+
+1:21:39.320 --> 1:21:45.320
+ If you fight less, you don't spend time taking care of all the aftermath of a fight.
+
+1:21:45.320 --> 1:21:46.320
+ That's right.
+
+1:21:46.320 --> 1:21:48.320
+ And I'm sure that it would take more time.
+
+1:21:48.320 --> 1:21:53.320
+ And if it did, I'd be willing to take that reduction.
+
+1:21:53.320 --> 1:21:56.320
+ And it's not a dramatic number, but it's a number
+
+1:21:56.320 --> 1:22:00.320
+ that I think would give me a greater degree of happiness
+
+1:22:00.320 --> 1:22:03.320
+ and knowing that I've done the right thing
+
+1:22:03.320 --> 1:22:10.320
+ and still have plenty of hours to get the success that I want to get.
+
+1:22:10.320 --> 1:22:14.320
+ So given the many successful companies that you've launched
+
+1:22:14.320 --> 1:22:17.320
+ and much success throughout your career,
+
+1:22:17.320 --> 1:22:25.320
+ what advice would you give to young people today looking,
+
+1:22:25.320 --> 1:22:28.320
+ or it doesn't have to be young, but people today looking to launch
+
+1:22:28.320 --> 1:22:35.320
+ and to create the next $1 billion tech startup, or even AI based startup?
+
+1:22:35.320 --> 1:22:42.320
+ I would suggest that people understand technology waves move quickly.
+
+1:22:42.320 --> 1:22:45.320
+ What worked two years ago may not work today.
+
+1:22:45.320 --> 1:22:49.320
+ And that is very much a case in point for AI.
+
+1:22:49.320 --> 1:22:53.320
+ I think two years ago, or maybe three years ago,
+
+1:22:53.320 --> 1:22:57.320
+ you certainly could say I have a couple of super smart PhDs
+
+1:22:57.320 --> 1:22:59.320
+ and we're not sure what we're going to do,
+
+1:22:59.320 --> 1:23:04.320
+ but here's how we're going to start and get funding for a very high valuation.
+
+1:23:04.320 --> 1:23:11.320
+ Those days are over because AI is going from rocket science towards mainstream.
+
+1:23:11.320 --> 1:23:14.320
+ Not yet commodity, but more mainstream.
+
+1:23:14.320 --> 1:23:20.320
+ So first, the creation of any company to eventual capitalist
+
+1:23:20.320 --> 1:23:25.320
+ has to be creation of business value and monetary value.
+
+1:23:25.320 --> 1:23:29.320
+ And when you have a very scarce commodity,
+
+1:23:29.320 --> 1:23:34.320
+ VCs may be willing to accept greater uncertainty.
+
+1:23:34.320 --> 1:23:40.320
+ But now the number of people who have the equivalent of PhD three years ago
+
+1:23:40.320 --> 1:23:43.320
+ because that can be learned more quickly.
+
+1:23:43.320 --> 1:23:45.320
+ Platforms are emerging.
+
+1:23:45.320 --> 1:23:51.320
+ The cost to become an AI engineer is much lower and there are many more AI engineers.
+
+1:23:51.320 --> 1:23:53.320
+ So the market is different.
+
+1:23:53.320 --> 1:23:57.320
+ So I would suggest someone who wants to build an AI company
+
+1:23:57.320 --> 1:24:01.320
+ be thinking about the normal business questions.
+
+1:24:01.320 --> 1:24:05.320
+ What customer cases are you trying to address?
+
+1:24:05.320 --> 1:24:08.320
+ What kind of pain are you trying to address?
+
+1:24:08.320 --> 1:24:10.320
+ How does that translate to value?
+
+1:24:10.320 --> 1:24:16.320
+ How will you extract value and get paid through what channel?
+
+1:24:16.320 --> 1:24:19.320
+ And how much business value will get created?
+
+1:24:19.320 --> 1:24:26.320
+ That today needs to be thought about much earlier up front than it did three years ago.
+
+1:24:26.320 --> 1:24:30.320
+ The scarcity question of AI talent has changed.
+
+1:24:30.320 --> 1:24:32.320
+ The number of AI talent has changed.
+
+1:24:32.320 --> 1:24:41.320
+ So now you need not just AI but also understanding of business customer and the marketplace.
+
+1:24:41.320 --> 1:24:49.320
+ So I also think you should have a more reasonable evaluation expectation
+
+1:24:49.320 --> 1:24:51.320
+ and growth expectation.
+
+1:24:51.320 --> 1:24:53.320
+ There's going to be more competition.
+
+1:24:53.320 --> 1:25:00.320
+ But the good news though is that AI technologies are now more available in open source.
+
+1:25:00.320 --> 1:25:06.320
+ TensorFlow, PyTorch and such tools are much easier to use.
+
+1:25:06.320 --> 1:25:13.320
+ So you should be able to experiment and get results iteratively faster than before.
+
+1:25:13.320 --> 1:25:18.320
+ So take more of a business mindset to this.
+
+1:25:18.320 --> 1:25:25.320
+ Think less of this as a laboratory taken into a company because we've gone beyond that stage.
+
+1:25:25.320 --> 1:25:31.320
+ The only exception is if you truly have a breakthrough in some technology that really no one has,
+
+1:25:31.320 --> 1:25:34.320
+ then the old way still works.
+
+1:25:34.320 --> 1:25:36.320
+ But I think that's harder and harder now.
+
+1:25:36.320 --> 1:25:44.320
+ So I know you believe as many do that we're far from creating an artificial general intelligence system.
+
+1:25:44.320 --> 1:25:54.320
+ But say once we do and you get to ask her one question, what would that question be?
+
+1:25:54.320 --> 1:26:00.320
+ What is it that differentiates you and me?
+
+1:26:00.320 --> 1:26:05.320
+ Beautifully put, Kaifu, thank you so much for your time today.
+
+1:26:05.320 --> 1:26:26.320
+ Thank you.
+