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+WEBVTT
+
+00:00.000 --> 00:02.520
+ The following is a conversation with George Hotz.
+
+00:02.520 --> 00:04.480
+ He's the founder of Comma AI,
+
+00:04.480 --> 00:07.400
+ a machine learning based vehicle automation company.
+
+00:07.400 --> 00:10.200
+ He is most certainly an outspoken personality
+
+00:10.200 --> 00:13.160
+ in the field of AI and technology in general.
+
+00:13.160 --> 00:16.240
+ He first gained recognition for being the first person
+
+00:16.240 --> 00:18.400
+ to carry on lock and iPhone.
+
+00:18.400 --> 00:21.280
+ And since then, he's done quite a few interesting things
+
+00:21.280 --> 00:24.400
+ at the intersection of hardware and software.
+
+00:24.400 --> 00:27.440
+ This is the artificial intelligence podcast.
+
+00:27.440 --> 00:29.560
+ If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube,
+
+00:29.560 --> 00:32.920
+ give it five stars on iTunes, support it on Patreon,
+
+00:32.920 --> 00:34.920
+ or simply connect with me on Twitter.
+
+00:34.920 --> 00:39.120
+ Alex Friedman, spelled F R I D M A N.
+
+00:39.120 --> 00:42.000
+ And I'd like to give a special thank you to Jennifer
+
+00:42.000 --> 00:45.880
+ from Canada for her support of the podcast on Patreon.
+
+00:45.880 --> 00:47.720
+ Merci beaucoup, Jennifer.
+
+00:47.720 --> 00:50.600
+ She's been a friend and an engineering colleague
+
+00:50.600 --> 00:52.800
+ for many years since I was in grad school.
+
+00:52.800 --> 00:55.520
+ Your support means a lot and inspires me
+
+00:55.520 --> 00:57.920
+ to keep this series going.
+
+00:57.920 --> 01:01.600
+ And now here's my conversation with George Hotz.
+
+01:02.720 --> 01:04.720
+ Do you think we're living in a simulation?
+
+01:06.480 --> 01:10.080
+ Yes, but it may be unfalsifiable.
+
+01:10.080 --> 01:12.440
+ What do you mean by unfalsifiable?
+
+01:12.440 --> 01:16.840
+ So if the simulation is designed in such a way
+
+01:16.840 --> 01:19.640
+ that they did like a formal proof
+
+01:19.640 --> 01:22.320
+ to show that no information can get in and out.
+
+01:22.320 --> 01:25.200
+ And if their hardware is designed for the anything
+
+01:25.200 --> 01:27.880
+ in the simulation to always keep the hardware in spec,
+
+01:27.880 --> 01:29.480
+ it may be impossible to prove
+
+01:29.480 --> 01:31.280
+ whether we're in a simulation or not.
+
+01:32.600 --> 01:35.680
+ So they've designed it such that it's a closed system,
+
+01:35.680 --> 01:37.200
+ you can't get outside the system.
+
+01:37.200 --> 01:38.760
+ Well, maybe it's one of three worlds.
+
+01:38.760 --> 01:41.400
+ We're either in a simulation which can be exploited,
+
+01:41.400 --> 01:44.200
+ we're in a simulation which not only can't be exploited,
+
+01:44.200 --> 01:46.440
+ but like the same thing's true about VMs.
+
+01:46.440 --> 01:48.160
+ A really well designed VM,
+
+01:48.160 --> 01:50.520
+ you can't even detect if you're in a VM or not.
+
+01:51.400 --> 01:52.520
+ That's brilliant.
+
+01:52.520 --> 01:55.160
+ So we're, yeah, so the simulation is running
+
+01:55.160 --> 01:56.800
+ on a virtual machine.
+
+01:56.800 --> 01:59.440
+ But now in reality, all VMs have ways to detect.
+
+01:59.440 --> 02:00.280
+ That's the point.
+
+02:00.280 --> 02:04.840
+ I mean, is it, you've done quite a bit of hacking yourself.
+
+02:04.840 --> 02:08.640
+ So you should know that really any complicated system
+
+02:08.640 --> 02:11.000
+ will have ways in and out.
+
+02:11.000 --> 02:14.240
+ So this isn't necessarily true going forward.
+
+02:15.280 --> 02:18.080
+ I spent my time away from comma,
+
+02:18.080 --> 02:21.240
+ I learned a cock, it's a dependently typed,
+
+02:21.240 --> 02:24.360
+ like it's a language for writing math proofs.
+
+02:24.360 --> 02:28.200
+ And if you write code that compiles in a language like that,
+
+02:28.200 --> 02:30.840
+ it is correct by definition.
+
+02:30.840 --> 02:33.560
+ The types check it's correctance.
+
+02:33.560 --> 02:35.000
+ So it's possible that the simulation
+
+02:35.000 --> 02:39.640
+ is written in a language like this, in which case, yeah.
+
+02:39.640 --> 02:42.680
+ Yeah, but that can't be sufficiently expressive
+
+02:42.680 --> 02:43.760
+ of language like that.
+
+02:43.760 --> 02:44.600
+ Oh, it can.
+
+02:44.600 --> 02:45.440
+ It can be?
+
+02:45.440 --> 02:46.280
+ Oh, yeah.
+
+02:46.280 --> 02:48.920
+ Okay, well, so, all right, so.
+
+02:48.920 --> 02:50.640
+ The simulation doesn't have to be tearing complete
+
+02:50.640 --> 02:52.320
+ if it has a scheduled end date.
+
+02:52.320 --> 02:54.600
+ Looks like it does actually with entropy.
+
+02:54.600 --> 02:58.520
+ I mean, I don't think that a simulation
+
+02:58.520 --> 03:02.200
+ that results in something as complicated as the universe
+
+03:03.080 --> 03:07.280
+ would have a formal proof of correctness, right?
+
+03:08.240 --> 03:09.880
+ It's possible, of course.
+
+03:09.880 --> 03:12.720
+ We have no idea how good their tooling is.
+
+03:12.720 --> 03:14.640
+ And we have no idea how complicated
+
+03:14.640 --> 03:16.280
+ the universe computer really is.
+
+03:16.280 --> 03:17.920
+ It may be quite simple.
+
+03:17.920 --> 03:19.680
+ It's just very large, right?
+
+03:19.680 --> 03:22.160
+ It's very, it's definitely very large.
+
+03:22.160 --> 03:24.480
+ But the fundamental rules might be super simple.
+
+03:24.480 --> 03:26.240
+ Yeah, Conway's gonna like kinda stop.
+
+03:26.240 --> 03:30.320
+ Right, so if you could hack,
+
+03:30.320 --> 03:32.400
+ so imagine the simulation that is hackable,
+
+03:32.400 --> 03:33.640
+ if you could hack it,
+
+03:35.040 --> 03:37.960
+ what would you change about the universe?
+
+03:37.960 --> 03:40.560
+ Like how would you approach hacking a simulation?
+
+03:41.640 --> 03:44.360
+ The reason I gave that talk?
+
+03:44.360 --> 03:46.680
+ By the way, I'm not familiar with the talk you gave.
+
+03:46.680 --> 03:50.160
+ I just read that you talked about escaping the simulation
+
+03:50.160 --> 03:51.280
+ or something like that.
+
+03:51.280 --> 03:52.640
+ So maybe you can tell me a little bit
+
+03:52.640 --> 03:55.360
+ about the theme and the message there too.
+
+03:55.360 --> 03:57.680
+ It wasn't a very practical talk
+
+03:57.680 --> 04:00.600
+ about how to actually escape a simulation.
+
+04:00.600 --> 04:03.320
+ It was more about a way of restructuring
+
+04:03.320 --> 04:05.120
+ an us versus them narrative.
+
+04:05.120 --> 04:10.120
+ If we continue on the path we're going with technology,
+
+04:12.360 --> 04:14.160
+ I think we're in big trouble,
+
+04:14.160 --> 04:16.760
+ like as a species and not just as a species,
+
+04:16.760 --> 04:19.480
+ but even as me as an individual member of the species.
+
+04:19.480 --> 04:23.680
+ So if we could change rhetoric to be more like,
+
+04:23.680 --> 04:24.920
+ to think upwards,
+
+04:26.240 --> 04:29.080
+ like to think about that we're in a simulation
+
+04:29.080 --> 04:30.360
+ and how we could get out,
+
+04:30.360 --> 04:32.640
+ already we'd be on the right path.
+
+04:32.640 --> 04:34.800
+ What you actually do once you do that,
+
+04:34.800 --> 04:37.360
+ well, I assume I would have acquired way more intelligence
+
+04:37.360 --> 04:39.760
+ in the process of doing that, so I'll just ask that.
+
+04:39.760 --> 04:42.080
+ So the thinking upwards,
+
+04:42.080 --> 04:43.760
+ what kind of ideas,
+
+04:43.760 --> 04:45.640
+ what kind of breakthrough ideas do you think thinking
+
+04:45.640 --> 04:47.280
+ in that way could inspire?
+
+04:47.280 --> 04:49.800
+ And why did you say upwards?
+
+04:49.800 --> 04:50.640
+ Upwards.
+
+04:50.640 --> 04:51.480
+ Into space?
+
+04:51.480 --> 04:54.120
+ Are you thinking sort of exploration in all forms?
+
+04:54.120 --> 04:59.120
+ The space narrative that held for the modernist generation
+
+04:59.880 --> 05:02.600
+ doesn't hold as well for the postmodern generation.
+
+05:04.560 --> 05:05.480
+ What's the space narrative?
+
+05:05.480 --> 05:06.520
+ Are we talking about the same space?
+
+05:06.520 --> 05:07.360
+ The three dimensional space?
+
+05:07.360 --> 05:08.840
+ No, no, space, like going up space,
+
+05:08.840 --> 05:10.040
+ like building like Elon Musk,
+
+05:10.040 --> 05:11.160
+ like we're going to build rockets,
+
+05:11.160 --> 05:12.080
+ we're going to go to Mars,
+
+05:12.080 --> 05:13.560
+ we're going to colonize the universe.
+
+05:13.560 --> 05:14.720
+ And the narrative you're referring,
+
+05:14.720 --> 05:16.040
+ I was born in the Soviet Union,
+
+05:16.040 --> 05:18.000
+ you're referring to the race to space?
+
+05:18.000 --> 05:18.840
+ The race to space, yeah.
+
+05:18.840 --> 05:19.680
+ Yes, explore, okay.
+
+05:19.680 --> 05:21.760
+ That was a great modernist narrative.
+
+05:21.760 --> 05:23.360
+ Yeah.
+
+05:23.360 --> 05:26.720
+ It doesn't seem to hold the same weight in today's culture.
+
+05:27.640 --> 05:32.160
+ I'm hoping for good postmodern narratives that replace it.
+
+05:32.160 --> 05:35.560
+ So let's think, so you work a lot with AI.
+
+05:35.560 --> 05:39.080
+ So AI is one formulation of that narrative.
+
+05:39.080 --> 05:40.080
+ There could be also,
+
+05:40.080 --> 05:42.320
+ I don't know how much you do in VR and AR.
+
+05:42.320 --> 05:43.160
+ Yeah.
+
+05:43.160 --> 05:45.160
+ That's another, I know less about it,
+
+05:45.160 --> 05:47.600
+ but every time I play with it and our research,
+
+05:47.600 --> 05:49.640
+ it's fascinating, that virtual world.
+
+05:49.640 --> 05:51.840
+ Are you interested in the virtual world?
+
+05:51.840 --> 05:54.200
+ I would like to move to virtual reality.
+
+05:55.360 --> 05:56.440
+ In terms of your work?
+
+05:56.440 --> 05:58.760
+ No, I would like to physically move there.
+
+05:58.760 --> 06:00.240
+ The apartment I can rent in the cloud
+
+06:00.240 --> 06:03.240
+ is way better than the apartment I can rent in the real world.
+
+06:03.240 --> 06:04.760
+ Well, it's all relative, isn't it?
+
+06:04.760 --> 06:07.280
+ Because others will have very nice apartments too,
+
+06:07.280 --> 06:09.200
+ so you'll be inferior in the virtual world as well.
+
+06:09.200 --> 06:11.320
+ But that's not how I view the world, right?
+
+06:11.320 --> 06:12.440
+ I don't view the world.
+
+06:12.440 --> 06:15.640
+ I mean, that's a very like, almost zero summish way
+
+06:15.640 --> 06:16.480
+ to view the world.
+
+06:16.480 --> 06:18.800
+ Say like, my great apartment isn't great
+
+06:18.800 --> 06:20.400
+ because my neighbor has one too.
+
+06:20.400 --> 06:21.640
+ No, my great apartment is great
+
+06:21.640 --> 06:24.320
+ because like, look at this dishwasher, man.
+
+06:24.320 --> 06:26.640
+ You just touch the dish and it's washed, right?
+
+06:26.640 --> 06:28.680
+ And that is great in and of itself
+
+06:28.680 --> 06:30.120
+ if I had the only apartment
+
+06:30.120 --> 06:31.520
+ or if everybody had the apartment.
+
+06:31.520 --> 06:32.400
+ I don't care.
+
+06:32.400 --> 06:34.760
+ So you have fundamental gratitude.
+
+06:34.760 --> 06:39.080
+ The world first learned of Geohot, George Hots
+
+06:39.080 --> 06:42.280
+ in August 2007, maybe before then,
+
+06:42.280 --> 06:44.080
+ but certainly in August 2007
+
+06:44.080 --> 06:46.760
+ when you were the first person to unlock,
+
+06:46.760 --> 06:48.880
+ carry on lock an iPhone.
+
+06:48.880 --> 06:50.520
+ How did you get into hacking?
+
+06:50.520 --> 06:53.080
+ What was the first system you discovered
+
+06:53.080 --> 06:55.040
+ vulnerabilities for and broke into?
+
+06:56.240 --> 07:01.240
+ So that was really kind of the first thing.
+
+07:01.640 --> 07:06.640
+ I had a book in 2006 called Gray Hat Hacking.
+
+07:07.480 --> 07:11.000
+ And I guess I realized that
+
+07:11.000 --> 07:13.480
+ if you acquired these sort of powers
+
+07:13.480 --> 07:15.280
+ you could control the world.
+
+07:16.160 --> 07:18.920
+ But I didn't really know that much
+
+07:18.920 --> 07:20.560
+ about computers back then.
+
+07:20.560 --> 07:22.120
+ I started with electronics.
+
+07:22.120 --> 07:24.200
+ The first iPhone hack was physical.
+
+07:24.200 --> 07:25.040
+ Cardware.
+
+07:25.040 --> 07:28.160
+ You had to open it up and pull an address line high.
+
+07:28.160 --> 07:29.960
+ And it was because I didn't really know
+
+07:29.960 --> 07:31.320
+ about software exploitation.
+
+07:31.320 --> 07:32.960
+ I learned that all in the next few years
+
+07:32.960 --> 07:33.920
+ and I got very good at it.
+
+07:33.920 --> 07:36.560
+ But back then I knew about like
+
+07:36.560 --> 07:38.920
+ how memory chips are connected to processors and stuff.
+
+07:38.920 --> 07:41.040
+ But you knew about software and programming.
+
+07:41.040 --> 07:43.200
+ You didn't know.
+
+07:43.200 --> 07:46.160
+ Oh really, so your view of the world
+
+07:46.160 --> 07:49.320
+ and computers was physical, was hardware.
+
+07:49.320 --> 07:52.400
+ Actually, if you read the code that I released with that
+
+07:52.400 --> 07:55.760
+ in August 2007, it's atrocious.
+
+07:55.760 --> 07:56.760
+ What language was it?
+
+07:56.760 --> 07:57.600
+ C.
+
+07:57.600 --> 07:58.440
+ C, nice.
+
+07:58.440 --> 08:01.480
+ And in a broken sort of state machine, ask C.
+
+08:01.480 --> 08:02.960
+ I didn't know how to program.
+
+08:02.960 --> 08:04.160
+ Yeah.
+
+08:04.160 --> 08:06.600
+ So how did you learn to program?
+
+08:07.520 --> 08:08.440
+ What was your journey?
+
+08:08.440 --> 08:10.040
+ I mean, we'll talk about it.
+
+08:10.040 --> 08:12.680
+ You've live streamed some of your programming.
+
+08:12.680 --> 08:14.400
+ This chaotic, beautiful mess.
+
+08:14.400 --> 08:16.480
+ How did you arrive at that?
+
+08:16.480 --> 08:18.640
+ Years and years of practice.
+
+08:18.640 --> 08:22.240
+ I interned at Google after,
+
+08:22.240 --> 08:24.800
+ the summer after the iPhone unlock.
+
+08:24.800 --> 08:26.720
+ And I did a contract for them
+
+08:26.720 --> 08:29.040
+ where I built a hardware for Street View
+
+08:29.040 --> 08:31.760
+ and I wrote a software library to interact with it.
+
+08:32.680 --> 08:34.920
+ And it was terrible code.
+
+08:34.920 --> 08:36.560
+ And for the first time I got feedback
+
+08:36.560 --> 08:38.760
+ from people who I respected saying,
+
+08:38.760 --> 08:41.160
+ no, like, don't write code like this.
+
+08:42.680 --> 08:45.680
+ Now, of course, just getting that feedback is not enough.
+
+08:45.680 --> 08:50.680
+ The way that I really got good was,
+
+08:51.000 --> 08:54.800
+ I wanted to write this thing that could emulate
+
+08:54.800 --> 08:58.440
+ and then visualize like arm binaries
+
+08:58.440 --> 09:00.040
+ because I wanted to hack the iPhone better.
+
+09:00.040 --> 09:01.960
+ And I didn't like that I couldn't see what the,
+
+09:01.960 --> 09:03.800
+ I couldn't single step through the processor
+
+09:03.800 --> 09:05.200
+ because I had no debugger on there,
+
+09:05.200 --> 09:06.640
+ especially for the low level things like the boot ROM
+
+09:06.640 --> 09:07.480
+ and the boot loader.
+
+09:07.480 --> 09:09.440
+ So I tried to build this tool to do it.
+
+09:10.920 --> 09:13.440
+ And I built the tool once and it was terrible.
+
+09:13.440 --> 09:15.120
+ I built the tool second times, it was terrible.
+
+09:15.120 --> 09:16.320
+ I built the tool third time.
+
+09:16.320 --> 09:18.600
+ This by the time I was at Facebook, it was kind of okay.
+
+09:18.600 --> 09:20.560
+ And then I built the tool fourth time
+
+09:20.560 --> 09:22.560
+ when I was a Google intern again in 2014.
+
+09:22.560 --> 09:24.320
+ And that was the first time I was like,
+
+09:24.320 --> 09:25.880
+ this is finally usable.
+
+09:25.880 --> 09:27.120
+ How do you pronounce this, Kira?
+
+09:27.120 --> 09:28.360
+ Kira, yeah.
+
+09:28.360 --> 09:31.840
+ So it's essentially the most efficient way
+
+09:31.840 --> 09:35.720
+ to visualize the change of state of the computer
+
+09:35.720 --> 09:37.200
+ as the program is running.
+
+09:37.200 --> 09:38.920
+ That's what you mean by debugger.
+
+09:38.920 --> 09:41.760
+ Yeah, it's a timeless debugger.
+
+09:41.760 --> 09:45.080
+ So you can rewind just as easily as going forward.
+
+09:45.080 --> 09:46.280
+ Think about, if you're using GDB,
+
+09:46.280 --> 09:47.880
+ you have to put a watch on a variable.
+
+09:47.880 --> 09:49.680
+ If you want to see if that variable changes.
+
+09:49.680 --> 09:51.480
+ In Kira, you can just click on that variable.
+
+09:51.480 --> 09:53.880
+ And then it shows every single time
+
+09:53.880 --> 09:56.520
+ when that variable was changed or accessed.
+
+09:56.520 --> 09:59.760
+ Think about it like get for your computer's, the run lock.
+
+09:59.760 --> 10:04.760
+ So there's like a deep log of the state of the computer
+
+10:05.640 --> 10:07.840
+ as the program runs and you can rewind.
+
+10:07.840 --> 10:11.480
+ Why isn't that, maybe it is, maybe you can educate me.
+
+10:11.480 --> 10:14.640
+ Why isn't that kind of debugging used more often?
+
+10:14.640 --> 10:16.320
+ Because the tooling's bad.
+
+10:16.320 --> 10:17.160
+ Well, two things.
+
+10:17.160 --> 10:19.360
+ One, if you're trying to debug Chrome,
+
+10:19.360 --> 10:22.920
+ Chrome is a 200 megabyte binary
+
+10:22.920 --> 10:25.440
+ that runs slowly on desktops.
+
+10:25.440 --> 10:27.760
+ So that's gonna be really hard to use for that.
+
+10:27.760 --> 10:30.160
+ But it's really good to use for like CTFs
+
+10:30.160 --> 10:33.200
+ and for boot ROMs and for small parts of code.
+
+10:33.200 --> 10:36.360
+ So it's hard if you're trying to debug like massive systems.
+
+10:36.360 --> 10:38.200
+ What's a CTF and what's a boot ROM?
+
+10:38.200 --> 10:40.480
+ A boot ROM is the first code that executes
+
+10:40.480 --> 10:42.280
+ the minute you give power to your iPhone.
+
+10:42.280 --> 10:43.520
+ Okay.
+
+10:43.520 --> 10:46.040
+ And CTF were these competitions that I played.
+
+10:46.040 --> 10:46.880
+ Capture the flag.
+
+10:46.880 --> 10:47.720
+ Capture the flag.
+
+10:47.720 --> 10:48.560
+ I was gonna ask you about that.
+
+10:48.560 --> 10:49.920
+ What are those, those look at,
+
+10:49.920 --> 10:51.440
+ I watched a couple of videos on YouTube.
+
+10:51.440 --> 10:52.920
+ Those look fascinating.
+
+10:52.920 --> 10:55.560
+ What have you learned about maybe at the high level
+
+10:55.560 --> 10:58.040
+ in the vulnerability of systems from these competitions?
+
+11:00.840 --> 11:04.200
+ I feel like in the heyday of CTFs,
+
+11:04.200 --> 11:08.160
+ you had all of the best security people in the world
+
+11:08.160 --> 11:10.720
+ challenging each other and coming up
+
+11:10.720 --> 11:13.640
+ with new toy exploitable things over here.
+
+11:13.640 --> 11:15.400
+ And then everybody, okay, who can break it?
+
+11:15.400 --> 11:17.160
+ And when you break it, you get like,
+
+11:17.160 --> 11:19.360
+ there's like a file in the server called flag.
+
+11:19.360 --> 11:20.960
+ And then there's a program running,
+
+11:20.960 --> 11:22.680
+ listening on a socket that's vulnerable.
+
+11:22.680 --> 11:25.000
+ So you write an exploit, you get a shell,
+
+11:25.000 --> 11:27.160
+ and then you cat flag, and then you type the flag
+
+11:27.160 --> 11:29.480
+ into like a web based scoreboard and you get points.
+
+11:29.480 --> 11:33.000
+ So the goal is essentially to find an exploit in the system
+
+11:33.000 --> 11:35.280
+ that allows you to run shell,
+
+11:35.280 --> 11:38.040
+ to run arbitrary code on that system.
+
+11:38.040 --> 11:40.200
+ That's one of the categories.
+
+11:40.200 --> 11:41.960
+ That's like the Poneable category.
+
+11:43.560 --> 11:44.400
+ Poneable?
+
+11:44.400 --> 11:45.240
+ Yeah, Poneable.
+
+11:45.240 --> 11:47.600
+ It's like, you know, you Pone the program.
+
+11:47.600 --> 11:48.440
+ It's a program.
+
+11:48.440 --> 11:51.760
+ Oh, yeah.
+
+11:51.760 --> 11:55.360
+ You know, first of all, I apologize, I'm gonna say,
+
+11:55.360 --> 11:56.280
+ it's because I'm Russian,
+
+11:56.280 --> 11:59.120
+ but maybe you can help educate me.
+
+12:00.120 --> 12:01.680
+ Some video game like misspelled
+
+12:01.680 --> 12:02.840
+ to own way back in the day.
+
+12:02.840 --> 12:04.880
+ Yeah, and it's just,
+
+12:04.880 --> 12:06.280
+ I wonder if there's a definition
+
+12:06.280 --> 12:08.000
+ and I'll have to go to Urban Dictionary for it.
+
+12:08.000 --> 12:09.800
+ Yeah, it'd be interesting to see what it says.
+
+12:09.800 --> 12:12.760
+ Okay, so what was the heyday of CTL, by the way,
+
+12:12.760 --> 12:15.480
+ but was it, what decade are we talking about?
+
+12:15.480 --> 12:18.400
+ I think like, I mean, maybe I'm biased
+
+12:18.400 --> 12:21.120
+ because it's the era that I played,
+
+12:21.120 --> 12:25.800
+ but like 2011 to 2015,
+
+12:27.200 --> 12:30.320
+ because the modern CTF scene
+
+12:30.320 --> 12:32.640
+ is similar to the modern competitive programming scene.
+
+12:32.640 --> 12:34.280
+ You have people who like do drills.
+
+12:34.280 --> 12:35.880
+ You have people who practice.
+
+12:35.880 --> 12:37.040
+ And then once you've done that,
+
+12:37.040 --> 12:40.040
+ you've turned it less into a game of generic computer skill
+
+12:40.040 --> 12:42.440
+ and more into a game of, okay, you memorize,
+
+12:42.440 --> 12:44.620
+ you drill on these five categories.
+
+12:45.760 --> 12:48.920
+ And then before that, it wasn't,
+
+12:48.920 --> 12:51.560
+ it didn't have like as much attention as it had.
+
+12:52.800 --> 12:53.640
+ I don't know, they were like,
+
+12:53.640 --> 12:55.200
+ I won $30,000 once in Korea
+
+12:55.200 --> 12:56.120
+ for one of these competitions.
+
+12:56.120 --> 12:56.960
+ Holy crap.
+
+12:56.960 --> 12:57.920
+ Yeah, they were, they were, that was...
+
+12:57.920 --> 12:59.520
+ So that means, I mean, money is money,
+
+12:59.520 --> 13:02.320
+ but that means there was probably good people there.
+
+13:02.320 --> 13:03.600
+ Exactly, yeah.
+
+13:03.600 --> 13:06.800
+ Are the challenges human constructed
+
+13:06.800 --> 13:10.760
+ or are they grounded in some real flaws in real systems?
+
+13:10.760 --> 13:13.080
+ Usually they're human constructed,
+
+13:13.080 --> 13:15.760
+ but they're usually inspired by real flaws.
+
+13:15.760 --> 13:17.320
+ What kind of systems are imagined
+
+13:17.320 --> 13:19.080
+ is really focused on mobile?
+
+13:19.080 --> 13:20.920
+ Like what has vulnerabilities these days?
+
+13:20.920 --> 13:25.120
+ Is it primarily mobile systems like Android?
+
+13:25.120 --> 13:26.680
+ Oh, everything does.
+
+13:26.680 --> 13:28.120
+ Yeah, of course.
+
+13:28.120 --> 13:29.360
+ The price has kind of gone up
+
+13:29.360 --> 13:31.280
+ because less and less people can find them.
+
+13:31.280 --> 13:33.160
+ And what's happened in security is now,
+
+13:33.160 --> 13:34.560
+ if you want to like jailbreak an iPhone,
+
+13:34.560 --> 13:36.960
+ you don't need one exploit anymore, you need nine.
+
+13:37.960 --> 13:39.160
+ Nine change together?
+
+13:39.160 --> 13:40.000
+ What would you mean?
+
+13:40.000 --> 13:40.840
+ Yeah, wow.
+
+13:40.840 --> 13:44.800
+ Okay, so it's really, what's the benefit?
+
+13:44.800 --> 13:48.240
+ Speaking higher level philosophically about hacking.
+
+13:48.240 --> 13:50.400
+ I mean, it sounds from everything I've seen about you,
+
+13:50.400 --> 13:55.040
+ you just love the challenge and you don't want to do anything.
+
+13:55.040 --> 13:58.120
+ You don't want to bring that exploit out into the world
+
+13:58.120 --> 14:01.680
+ and do any actual, let it run wild.
+
+14:01.680 --> 14:02.760
+ You just want to solve it
+
+14:02.760 --> 14:05.400
+ and then you go on to the next thing.
+
+14:05.400 --> 14:08.440
+ Oh yeah, I mean, doing criminal stuff's not really worth it.
+
+14:08.440 --> 14:10.520
+ And I'll actually use the same argument
+
+14:10.520 --> 14:15.440
+ for why I don't do defense for why I don't do crime.
+
+14:15.440 --> 14:16.840
+ If you want to defend a system,
+
+14:16.840 --> 14:19.280
+ say the system has 10 holes, right?
+
+14:19.280 --> 14:22.240
+ If you find nine of those holes as a defender,
+
+14:22.240 --> 14:24.240
+ you still lose because the attacker gets in
+
+14:24.240 --> 14:25.520
+ through the last one.
+
+14:25.520 --> 14:26.360
+ If you're an attacker,
+
+14:26.360 --> 14:28.720
+ you only have to find one out of the 10.
+
+14:28.720 --> 14:30.760
+ But if you're a criminal,
+
+14:30.760 --> 14:34.800
+ if you log on with a VPN nine out of the 10 times,
+
+14:34.800 --> 14:37.760
+ but one time you forget, you're done.
+
+14:37.760 --> 14:39.400
+ Because you're caught, okay.
+
+14:39.400 --> 14:41.160
+ Because you only have to mess up once
+
+14:41.160 --> 14:42.920
+ to be caught as a criminal.
+
+14:42.920 --> 14:44.320
+ That's why I'm not a criminal.
+
+14:45.920 --> 14:47.080
+ But okay, let me,
+
+14:47.080 --> 14:49.520
+ cause I was having a discussion with somebody
+
+14:49.520 --> 14:52.440
+ just at a high level about nuclear weapons,
+
+14:52.440 --> 14:56.240
+ actually why we're having blown ourselves up yet.
+
+14:56.240 --> 14:59.840
+ And my feeling is all the smart people in the world,
+
+14:59.840 --> 15:04.120
+ if you look at the distribution of smart people,
+
+15:04.120 --> 15:06.760
+ smart people are generally good.
+
+15:06.760 --> 15:07.680
+ And then the Southern person,
+
+15:07.680 --> 15:09.480
+ I was talking to Sean Carroll, the physicist,
+
+15:09.480 --> 15:11.400
+ and he was saying no good and bad people
+
+15:11.400 --> 15:14.080
+ are evenly distributed amongst everybody.
+
+15:14.080 --> 15:18.080
+ My sense was good hackers are in general good people
+
+15:18.080 --> 15:20.400
+ and they don't want to mess with the world.
+
+15:20.400 --> 15:21.920
+ What's your sense?
+
+15:21.920 --> 15:24.720
+ I'm not even sure about that.
+
+15:25.920 --> 15:30.520
+ Like, I have a nice life.
+
+15:30.520 --> 15:32.120
+ Crime wouldn't get me anything.
+
+15:34.320 --> 15:36.520
+ But if you're good and you have these skills,
+
+15:36.520 --> 15:38.720
+ you probably have a nice life too, right?
+
+15:38.720 --> 15:40.160
+ Right, you can use the father things.
+
+15:40.160 --> 15:41.120
+ But is there an ethical,
+
+15:41.120 --> 15:44.200
+ is there a little voice in your head that says,
+
+15:46.120 --> 15:49.040
+ well, yeah, if you could hack something
+
+15:49.040 --> 15:50.720
+ to where you could hurt people
+
+15:52.840 --> 15:54.960
+ and you could earn a lot of money doing it though,
+
+15:54.960 --> 15:56.320
+ not hurt physically perhaps,
+
+15:56.320 --> 15:59.000
+ but disrupt their life in some kind of way.
+
+16:00.200 --> 16:02.360
+ Isn't there a little voice that says,
+
+16:03.360 --> 16:04.560
+ Well, two things.
+
+16:04.560 --> 16:06.800
+ One, I don't really care about money.
+
+16:06.800 --> 16:08.680
+ So like the money wouldn't be an incentive.
+
+16:08.680 --> 16:10.640
+ The thrill might be an incentive.
+
+16:10.640 --> 16:14.440
+ But when I was 19, I read crime and punishment.
+
+16:14.440 --> 16:16.120
+ That was another great one
+
+16:16.120 --> 16:18.440
+ that talked me out of ever really doing crime.
+
+16:19.400 --> 16:21.720
+ Cause it's like, that's gonna be me.
+
+16:21.720 --> 16:25.040
+ I'd get away with it, but it would just run through my head.
+
+16:25.040 --> 16:26.480
+ Even if I got away with it, you know?
+
+16:26.480 --> 16:27.640
+ And then you do crime for long enough,
+
+16:27.640 --> 16:28.960
+ you'll never get away with it.
+
+16:28.960 --> 16:30.360
+ That's right, in the end.
+
+16:30.360 --> 16:32.680
+ That's a good reason to be good.
+
+16:32.680 --> 16:34.880
+ I wouldn't say I'm good, I would just say I'm not bad.
+
+16:34.880 --> 16:38.080
+ You're a talented programmer and a hacker
+
+16:38.080 --> 16:40.920
+ in a good positive sense of the word.
+
+16:40.920 --> 16:43.360
+ You've played around, found vulnerabilities
+
+16:43.360 --> 16:44.720
+ in various systems.
+
+16:44.720 --> 16:46.120
+ What have you learned broadly
+
+16:46.120 --> 16:49.480
+ about the design of systems and so on
+
+16:49.480 --> 16:51.520
+ from that whole process?
+
+16:53.280 --> 16:58.280
+ You learn to not take things
+
+16:59.280 --> 17:02.160
+ for what people say they are,
+
+17:02.160 --> 17:05.320
+ but you look at things for what they actually are.
+
+17:07.040 --> 17:07.880
+ Yeah.
+
+17:07.880 --> 17:10.080
+ I understand that's what you tell me it is,
+
+17:10.080 --> 17:11.320
+ but what does it do?
+
+17:12.960 --> 17:14.600
+ And you have nice visualization tools
+
+17:14.600 --> 17:16.720
+ to really know what it's really doing.
+
+17:16.720 --> 17:20.080
+ Oh, I wish I'm a better programmer now than I was in 2014.
+
+17:20.080 --> 17:21.880
+ I said, Kira, that was the first tool
+
+17:21.880 --> 17:23.440
+ that I wrote that was usable.
+
+17:23.440 --> 17:25.360
+ I wouldn't say the code was great.
+
+17:25.360 --> 17:27.360
+ I still wouldn't say my code is great.
+
+17:28.840 --> 17:30.760
+ So how was your evolution as a programmer?
+
+17:30.760 --> 17:32.280
+ Except practice.
+
+17:32.280 --> 17:33.880
+ You started with C,
+
+17:33.880 --> 17:35.560
+ what point did you pick up Python?
+
+17:35.560 --> 17:37.080
+ Because you're pretty big in Python now.
+
+17:37.080 --> 17:39.960
+ Now, yeah, in college,
+
+17:39.960 --> 17:42.520
+ I went to Carnegie Mellon when I was 22.
+
+17:42.520 --> 17:44.200
+ I went back, I'm like,
+
+17:44.200 --> 17:46.640
+ I'm gonna take all your hardest CS courses
+
+17:46.640 --> 17:47.640
+ and we'll see how I do, right?
+
+17:47.640 --> 17:48.560
+ Like, did I miss anything
+
+17:48.560 --> 17:51.520
+ by not having a real undergraduate education?
+
+17:51.520 --> 17:54.240
+ Took operating systems, compilers, AI,
+
+17:54.240 --> 17:56.880
+ and they're like a freshman Weeder math course.
+
+17:56.880 --> 18:01.880
+ And some of those classes you mentioned,
+
+18:03.320 --> 18:04.240
+ pretty tough, actually.
+
+18:04.240 --> 18:05.640
+ They're great.
+
+18:05.640 --> 18:07.640
+ At least when the 2012,
+
+18:07.640 --> 18:10.240
+ circa 2012 operating systems and compilers
+
+18:11.240 --> 18:14.440
+ were two of the best classes I've ever taken in my life.
+
+18:14.440 --> 18:15.640
+ Because you write an operating system
+
+18:15.640 --> 18:16.840
+ and you write a compiler.
+
+18:18.080 --> 18:19.760
+ I wrote my operating system in C
+
+18:19.760 --> 18:21.400
+ and I wrote my compiler in Haskell,
+
+18:21.400 --> 18:26.400
+ but somehow I picked up Python that semester as well.
+
+18:26.400 --> 18:28.080
+ I started using it for the CTFs, actually.
+
+18:28.080 --> 18:30.320
+ That's when I really started to get into CTFs
+
+18:30.320 --> 18:33.360
+ and CTFs, you're all to race against the clock.
+
+18:33.360 --> 18:35.120
+ So I can't write things and see.
+
+18:35.120 --> 18:36.240
+ Oh, there's a clock component.
+
+18:36.240 --> 18:37.840
+ So you really want to use the programming language
+
+18:37.840 --> 18:38.960
+ just so you can be fastest.
+
+18:38.960 --> 18:40.080
+ 48 hours.
+
+18:40.080 --> 18:41.440
+ Pwn as many of these challenges as you can.
+
+18:41.440 --> 18:42.280
+ Pwn.
+
+18:42.280 --> 18:43.120
+ Yeah.
+
+18:43.120 --> 18:43.960
+ You got like 100 points of challenge,
+
+18:43.960 --> 18:45.360
+ whatever team gets the most.
+
+18:46.360 --> 18:50.240
+ You were both at Facebook and Google for a brief stint.
+
+18:50.240 --> 18:51.080
+ Yeah.
+
+18:51.080 --> 18:54.920
+ With Project Zero, actually, at Google for five months
+
+18:54.920 --> 18:56.960
+ where you develop Kira.
+
+18:56.960 --> 18:59.280
+ What was Project Zero about in general?
+
+19:01.760 --> 19:05.160
+ Just curious about the security efforts in these companies.
+
+19:05.160 --> 19:08.840
+ Well, Project Zero started the same time I went there.
+
+19:08.840 --> 19:10.080
+ What year is it there?
+
+19:11.080 --> 19:12.320
+ 2015.
+
+19:12.320 --> 19:13.160
+ 2015.
+
+19:13.160 --> 19:15.040
+ So that was right at the beginning of Project Zero.
+
+19:15.040 --> 19:16.200
+ It's small.
+
+19:16.200 --> 19:18.840
+ It's Google's offensive security team.
+
+19:18.840 --> 19:23.840
+ I'll try to give the best public facing explanation
+
+19:25.680 --> 19:26.520
+ that I can.
+
+19:26.520 --> 19:30.960
+ So the idea is basically,
+
+19:30.960 --> 19:33.240
+ these vulnerabilities exist in the world.
+
+19:33.240 --> 19:35.240
+ Nation states have them.
+
+19:35.240 --> 19:37.440
+ Some high powered bad actors have them.
+
+19:39.840 --> 19:44.200
+ Sometimes people will find these vulnerabilities
+
+19:44.200 --> 19:47.960
+ and submit them in bug bounties to the companies.
+
+19:47.960 --> 19:49.440
+ But a lot of the companies don't only care.
+
+19:49.440 --> 19:50.520
+ They don't even fix the bug.
+
+19:50.520 --> 19:53.760
+ It doesn't hurt for there to be a vulnerability.
+
+19:53.760 --> 19:55.880
+ So Project Zero is like, we're going to do it different.
+
+19:55.880 --> 19:57.840
+ We're going to announce a vulnerability
+
+19:57.840 --> 19:59.640
+ and we're going to give them 90 days to fix it.
+
+19:59.640 --> 20:00.800
+ And then whether they fix it or not,
+
+20:00.800 --> 20:03.200
+ we're going to drop the Zero Day.
+
+20:03.200 --> 20:04.080
+ Oh, wow.
+
+20:04.080 --> 20:05.240
+ We're going to drop the weapon on the textbook.
+
+20:05.240 --> 20:06.080
+ That's so cool.
+
+20:06.080 --> 20:07.480
+ That is so cool.
+
+20:07.480 --> 20:09.200
+ I love that deadlines.
+
+20:09.200 --> 20:10.040
+ Oh, that's so cool.
+
+20:10.040 --> 20:10.880
+ Give them real deadlines.
+
+20:10.880 --> 20:12.320
+ Yeah.
+
+20:12.320 --> 20:15.800
+ And I think it's done a lot for moving the industry forward.
+
+20:15.800 --> 20:20.360
+ I watched your coding sessions on the streamed online.
+
+20:20.360 --> 20:25.280
+ You code things up, the basic projects, usually from scratch.
+
+20:25.280 --> 20:28.200
+ I would say, sort of as a programmer myself,
+
+20:28.200 --> 20:30.360
+ just watching you, that you type really fast
+
+20:30.360 --> 20:34.440
+ and your brain works in both brilliant and chaotic ways.
+
+20:34.440 --> 20:35.800
+ I don't know if that's always true,
+
+20:35.800 --> 20:37.600
+ but certainly for the live streams.
+
+20:37.600 --> 20:41.320
+ So it's interesting to me because I'm much slower
+
+20:41.320 --> 20:43.520
+ and systematic and careful.
+
+20:43.520 --> 20:48.040
+ And you just move probably in order of magnitude faster.
+
+20:48.040 --> 20:51.800
+ So I'm curious, is there a method to your madness?
+
+20:51.800 --> 20:53.040
+ Or is it just who you are?
+
+20:53.040 --> 20:54.720
+ There's pros and cons.
+
+20:54.720 --> 20:58.080
+ There's pros and cons to my programming style.
+
+20:58.080 --> 21:00.360
+ And I'm aware of them.
+
+21:00.360 --> 21:04.480
+ If you ask me to get something up and working quickly
+
+21:04.480 --> 21:06.800
+ with an API that's kind of undocumented,
+
+21:06.800 --> 21:08.880
+ I will do this super fast because I will throw things
+
+21:08.880 --> 21:10.200
+ at it until it works.
+
+21:10.200 --> 21:14.720
+ If you ask me to take a vector and rotate it 90 degrees
+
+21:14.720 --> 21:19.320
+ and then flip it over the X, Y plane,
+
+21:19.320 --> 21:22.280
+ I'll spam program for two hours and won't get it.
+
+21:22.280 --> 21:23.480
+ Oh, because it's something that you
+
+21:23.480 --> 21:26.240
+ could do with a sheet of paper or think through design
+
+21:26.240 --> 21:30.400
+ and then just you really just throw stuff at the wall
+
+21:30.400 --> 21:34.600
+ and you get so good at it that it usually works.
+
+21:34.600 --> 21:36.920
+ I should become better at the other kind as well.
+
+21:36.920 --> 21:39.440
+ Sometimes I will do things methodically.
+
+21:39.440 --> 21:41.200
+ It's nowhere near as entertaining on the Twitch streams.
+
+21:41.200 --> 21:43.520
+ I do exaggerate it a bit on the Twitch streams as well.
+
+21:43.520 --> 21:45.480
+ The Twitch streams, I mean, what do you want to see a game
+
+21:45.480 --> 21:46.840
+ or you want to see actions permit, right?
+
+21:46.840 --> 21:48.200
+ I'll show you APM for programming too.
+
+21:48.200 --> 21:50.280
+ Yeah, I'd recommend people go to it.
+
+21:50.280 --> 21:53.800
+ I think I watched probably several hours that you put,
+
+21:53.800 --> 21:57.480
+ like I've actually left you programming in the background
+
+21:57.480 --> 22:00.400
+ while I was programming because you made me,
+
+22:00.400 --> 22:03.120
+ it was like watching a really good gamer.
+
+22:03.120 --> 22:06.240
+ It's like energizes you because you're like moving so fast
+
+22:06.240 --> 22:08.840
+ and so it's awesome, it's inspiring.
+
+22:08.840 --> 22:11.200
+ It made me jealous that like,
+
+22:12.280 --> 22:14.280
+ because my own programming is inadequate
+
+22:14.280 --> 22:16.960
+ in terms of speed, so I was like.
+
+22:16.960 --> 22:20.520
+ So I'm twice as frantic on the live streams
+
+22:20.520 --> 22:22.680
+ as I am when I code without, oh.
+
+22:22.680 --> 22:23.720
+ It's super entertaining.
+
+22:23.720 --> 22:26.400
+ So I wasn't even paying attention to what you were coding,
+
+22:26.400 --> 22:29.760
+ which is great, it's just watching you switch windows
+
+22:29.760 --> 22:31.400
+ and Vim, I guess is the most way.
+
+22:31.400 --> 22:33.000
+ Yeah, does Vim on screen?
+
+22:33.000 --> 22:35.640
+ I've developed a workload Facebook and stuck with it.
+
+22:35.640 --> 22:37.320
+ How do you learn new programming tools,
+
+22:37.320 --> 22:39.440
+ ideas, techniques these days?
+
+22:39.440 --> 22:42.080
+ What's your like methodology for learning new things?
+
+22:42.080 --> 22:45.920
+ So I wrote for comma,
+
+22:47.200 --> 22:49.280
+ the distributed file systems out in the world
+
+22:49.280 --> 22:50.720
+ are extremely complex.
+
+22:50.720 --> 22:55.280
+ Like if you want to install something like like like Ceph,
+
+22:55.280 --> 22:58.760
+ Ceph is I think the like open infrastructure
+
+22:58.760 --> 23:03.040
+ distributed file system or there's like newer ones
+
+23:03.040 --> 23:05.880
+ like seaweed FS, but these are all like 10,000
+
+23:05.880 --> 23:06.880
+ plus line projects.
+
+23:06.880 --> 23:09.520
+ I think some of them are even 100,000 line
+
+23:09.520 --> 23:11.120
+ and just configuring them as a nightmare.
+
+23:11.120 --> 23:16.120
+ So I wrote, I wrote one, it's 200 lines
+
+23:16.440 --> 23:18.880
+ and it uses like engine X of the line servers
+
+23:18.880 --> 23:21.600
+ and has this little master server that I wrote and go.
+
+23:21.600 --> 23:24.840
+ And the way I go, this, if I would say
+
+23:24.840 --> 23:27.240
+ that I'm proud per line of any code I wrote,
+
+23:27.240 --> 23:29.160
+ maybe there's some exploits that I think are beautiful
+
+23:29.160 --> 23:31.320
+ and then this, this is 200 lines
+
+23:31.320 --> 23:33.720
+ and just the way that I thought about it,
+
+23:33.720 --> 23:35.560
+ I think was very good and the reason it's very good
+
+23:35.560 --> 23:37.640
+ is because that was the fourth version of it that I wrote
+
+23:37.640 --> 23:39.320
+ and I had three versions that I threw away.
+
+23:39.320 --> 23:41.000
+ You mentioned, did you say go?
+
+23:41.000 --> 23:41.840
+ I wrote a go, yeah.
+
+23:41.840 --> 23:42.680
+ And go.
+
+23:42.680 --> 23:43.880
+ Is that a functional language?
+
+23:43.880 --> 23:45.280
+ I forget what go is.
+
+23:45.280 --> 23:47.160
+ Go is Google's language.
+
+23:47.160 --> 23:48.200
+ Right.
+
+23:48.200 --> 23:49.480
+ It's not functional.
+
+23:49.480 --> 23:54.480
+ It's some, it's like, in a way it's C++, but easier.
+
+23:56.160 --> 23:58.200
+ It's strongly typed.
+
+23:58.200 --> 23:59.760
+ It has a nice ecosystem around it.
+
+23:59.760 --> 24:01.680
+ When I first looked at it, I was like,
+
+24:01.680 --> 24:03.800
+ this is like Python, but it takes twice as long
+
+24:03.800 --> 24:05.600
+ to do anything.
+
+24:05.600 --> 24:09.600
+ Now that I've open pilot is migrating to C,
+
+24:09.600 --> 24:11.000
+ but it still has large Python components,
+
+24:11.000 --> 24:12.760
+ I now understand why Python doesn't work
+
+24:12.760 --> 24:15.840
+ for large code bases and why you want something like go.
+
+24:15.840 --> 24:16.680
+ Interesting.
+
+24:16.680 --> 24:18.680
+ So why, why doesn't Python work for,
+
+24:18.680 --> 24:21.720
+ so even most, speaking for myself at least,
+
+24:21.720 --> 24:24.960
+ like we do a lot of stuff, basically demo level work
+
+24:24.960 --> 24:29.240
+ with autonomous vehicles and most of the work is Python.
+
+24:29.240 --> 24:32.440
+ Why doesn't Python work for large code bases?
+
+24:32.440 --> 24:37.440
+ Because, well, lack of type checking is a big one.
+
+24:37.920 --> 24:39.360
+ So errors creep in.
+
+24:39.360 --> 24:41.920
+ Yeah, and like you don't know,
+
+24:41.920 --> 24:45.320
+ the compiler can tell you like nothing, right?
+
+24:45.320 --> 24:48.440
+ So everything is either, you know,
+
+24:48.440 --> 24:49.880
+ like syntax errors, fine,
+
+24:49.880 --> 24:51.800
+ but if you misspell a variable in Python,
+
+24:51.800 --> 24:53.000
+ the compiler won't catch that.
+
+24:53.000 --> 24:56.600
+ There's like linters that can catch it some of the time.
+
+24:56.600 --> 24:57.560
+ There's no types.
+
+24:57.560 --> 25:00.520
+ This is really the biggest downside.
+
+25:00.520 --> 25:02.640
+ And then we'll Python slow, but that's not related to it.
+
+25:02.640 --> 25:04.840
+ Well, maybe it's kind of related to it, so it's lack of.
+
+25:04.840 --> 25:06.600
+ So what's in your toolbox these days?
+
+25:06.600 --> 25:07.760
+ Is it Python or what else?
+
+25:07.760 --> 25:08.600
+ Go.
+
+25:08.600 --> 25:10.240
+ I need to move to something else.
+
+25:10.240 --> 25:12.880
+ My adventure into dependently typed languages,
+
+25:12.880 --> 25:14.240
+ I love these languages.
+
+25:14.240 --> 25:17.520
+ They just have like syntax from the 80s.
+
+25:18.520 --> 25:21.120
+ What do you think about JavaScript?
+
+25:21.120 --> 25:24.000
+ ES6, like the modern type script?
+
+25:24.000 --> 25:27.320
+ JavaScript is, the whole ecosystem
+
+25:27.320 --> 25:29.320
+ is unbelievably confusing.
+
+25:29.320 --> 25:32.840
+ NPM updates a package from 022 to 025
+
+25:32.840 --> 25:34.560
+ and that breaks your Babel linter,
+
+25:34.560 --> 25:38.560
+ which translates your ES5 into ES6, which doesn't run on.
+
+25:38.560 --> 25:42.480
+ So why do I have to compile my JavaScript again, huh?
+
+25:42.480 --> 25:44.040
+ It may be the future though.
+
+25:44.040 --> 25:45.800
+ You think about, I mean,
+
+25:45.800 --> 25:47.400
+ I've embraced JavaScript recently
+
+25:47.400 --> 25:52.280
+ just because just like I've continually embraced PHP,
+
+25:52.280 --> 25:55.360
+ it seems that these worst possible languages live on
+
+25:55.360 --> 25:57.480
+ for the longest, like cockroaches never die.
+
+25:57.480 --> 26:00.760
+ Yeah, well, it's in the browser and it's fast.
+
+26:00.760 --> 26:01.680
+ It's fast.
+
+26:01.680 --> 26:02.520
+ Yeah.
+
+26:02.520 --> 26:05.480
+ It's in the browser and compute might stay become,
+
+26:05.480 --> 26:06.440
+ you know, the browser,
+
+26:06.440 --> 26:09.040
+ it's unclear what the role of the browser is
+
+26:09.040 --> 26:11.800
+ in terms of distributed computation in the future.
+
+26:11.800 --> 26:12.640
+ So.
+
+26:13.600 --> 26:15.240
+ JavaScript is definitely here to stay.
+
+26:15.240 --> 26:16.080
+ Yeah.
+
+26:16.080 --> 26:18.160
+ It's interesting if autonomous vehicles
+
+26:18.160 --> 26:19.480
+ will run on JavaScript one day.
+
+26:19.480 --> 26:21.760
+ I mean, you have to consider these possibilities.
+
+26:21.760 --> 26:24.280
+ Well, all our debug tools are JavaScript.
+
+26:24.280 --> 26:26.040
+ We actually just open source them.
+
+26:26.040 --> 26:28.160
+ We have a tool explorer, which you can annotate
+
+26:28.160 --> 26:30.080
+ your disengagements and we have tool Kibana,
+
+26:30.080 --> 26:32.920
+ which lets you analyze the can traffic from the car.
+
+26:32.920 --> 26:35.240
+ So basically any time you're visualizing something
+
+26:35.240 --> 26:37.720
+ about the log using JavaScript.
+
+26:37.720 --> 26:40.120
+ Well, the web is the best UI toolkit by far.
+
+26:40.120 --> 26:40.960
+ Yeah.
+
+26:40.960 --> 26:41.880
+ So, and then, you know what?
+
+26:41.880 --> 26:42.760
+ You're coding in JavaScript.
+
+26:42.760 --> 26:43.600
+ We have a React guy.
+
+26:43.600 --> 26:44.440
+ He's good.
+
+26:44.440 --> 26:46.080
+ React, nice.
+
+26:46.080 --> 26:46.920
+ Let's get into it.
+
+26:46.920 --> 26:49.120
+ So let's talk autonomous vehicles.
+
+26:49.120 --> 26:50.640
+ You found a comma AI.
+
+26:51.440 --> 26:54.920
+ Let's, at a high level,
+
+26:54.920 --> 26:57.880
+ how did you get into the world of vehicle automation?
+
+26:57.880 --> 26:59.920
+ Can you also just, for people who don't know,
+
+26:59.920 --> 27:01.400
+ tell the story of comma AI?
+
+27:01.400 --> 27:02.920
+ Sure.
+
+27:02.920 --> 27:06.120
+ So I was working at this AI startup
+
+27:06.120 --> 27:09.240
+ and a friend approached me and he's like,
+
+27:09.240 --> 27:12.080
+ dude, I don't know where this is going,
+
+27:12.080 --> 27:15.160
+ but the coolest applied AI problem today
+
+27:15.160 --> 27:16.480
+ is self driving cars.
+
+27:16.480 --> 27:17.720
+ I'm like, well, absolutely.
+
+27:18.800 --> 27:20.520
+ You wanna meet with Elon Musk
+
+27:20.520 --> 27:24.560
+ and he's looking for somebody to build a vision system
+
+27:24.560 --> 27:27.600
+ for autopilot.
+
+27:27.600 --> 27:29.320
+ This is when they were still on AP one.
+
+27:29.320 --> 27:30.840
+ They were still using Mobileye.
+
+27:30.840 --> 27:33.680
+ Elon back then was looking for a replacement.
+
+27:33.680 --> 27:37.320
+ And he brought me in and we talked about a contract
+
+27:37.320 --> 27:39.040
+ where I would deliver something
+
+27:39.040 --> 27:41.640
+ that meets Mobileye level performance.
+
+27:41.640 --> 27:43.920
+ I would get paid $12 million if I could deliver it tomorrow
+
+27:43.920 --> 27:46.720
+ and I would lose $1 million for every month I didn't deliver.
+
+27:47.720 --> 27:49.080
+ So I was like, okay, this is a great deal.
+
+27:49.080 --> 27:50.800
+ This is a super exciting challenge.
+
+27:52.360 --> 27:53.200
+ You know what?
+
+27:53.200 --> 27:55.840
+ It takes me 10 months, I get $2 million, it's good.
+
+27:55.840 --> 27:57.160
+ Maybe I can finish up in five.
+
+27:57.160 --> 27:58.880
+ Maybe I don't finish it at all and I get paid nothing
+
+27:58.880 --> 28:00.880
+ and I'll work for 12 months for free.
+
+28:00.880 --> 28:02.960
+ So maybe just take a pause on that.
+
+28:02.960 --> 28:04.280
+ I'm also curious about this
+
+28:04.280 --> 28:06.360
+ because I've been working in robotics for a long time.
+
+28:06.360 --> 28:08.320
+ And I'm curious to see a person like you just step in
+
+28:08.320 --> 28:12.000
+ and sort of somewhat naive, but brilliant, right?
+
+28:12.000 --> 28:14.000
+ So that's the best place to be
+
+28:14.000 --> 28:17.240
+ because you basically full steam take on a problem.
+
+28:17.240 --> 28:19.720
+ How confident, from that time,
+
+28:19.720 --> 28:21.320
+ because you know a lot more now,
+
+28:21.320 --> 28:23.440
+ at that time, how hard do you think it is
+
+28:23.440 --> 28:25.880
+ to solve all of autonomous driving?
+
+28:25.880 --> 28:30.440
+ I remember I suggested to Elon in the meeting
+
+28:30.440 --> 28:33.120
+ on putting a GPU behind each camera
+
+28:33.120 --> 28:35.120
+ to keep the compute local.
+
+28:35.120 --> 28:38.000
+ This is an incredibly stupid idea.
+
+28:38.000 --> 28:40.080
+ I leave the meeting 10 minutes later and I'm like,
+
+28:40.080 --> 28:41.560
+ I could have spent a little bit of time
+
+28:41.560 --> 28:42.880
+ thinking about this problem before I went in.
+
+28:42.880 --> 28:44.200
+ Why is this a stupid idea?
+
+28:44.200 --> 28:46.280
+ Oh, just send all your cameras to one big GPU.
+
+28:46.280 --> 28:48.240
+ You're much better off doing that.
+
+28:48.240 --> 28:50.160
+ Oh, sorry, you said behind every camera.
+
+28:50.160 --> 28:51.000
+ Every camera.
+
+28:51.000 --> 28:51.840
+ Every small GPU.
+
+28:51.840 --> 28:52.720
+ I was like, oh, I'll put the first few layers
+
+28:52.720 --> 28:54.520
+ of my comms there.
+
+28:54.520 --> 28:56.080
+ Like why did I say that?
+
+28:56.080 --> 28:56.920
+ That's possible.
+
+28:56.920 --> 28:59.000
+ It's possible, but it's a bad idea.
+
+28:59.000 --> 29:00.480
+ It's not obviously a bad idea.
+
+29:00.480 --> 29:01.320
+ Pretty obviously bad.
+
+29:01.320 --> 29:02.960
+ But whether it's actually a bad idea or not,
+
+29:02.960 --> 29:05.240
+ I left that meeting with Elon, like beating myself up.
+
+29:05.240 --> 29:07.080
+ I'm like, why did I say something stupid?
+
+29:07.080 --> 29:09.360
+ Yeah, you haven't, like you haven't at least
+
+29:09.360 --> 29:12.240
+ like thought through every aspect fully.
+
+29:12.240 --> 29:13.200
+ He's very sharp too.
+
+29:13.200 --> 29:15.760
+ Like usually in life, I get away with saying stupid things
+
+29:15.760 --> 29:16.960
+ and then kind of course,
+
+29:16.960 --> 29:18.560
+ right away he called me out about it.
+
+29:18.560 --> 29:19.800
+ And like, usually in life,
+
+29:19.800 --> 29:21.120
+ I get away with saying stupid things.
+
+29:21.120 --> 29:24.640
+ And then like people will, you know,
+
+29:24.640 --> 29:26.080
+ a lot of times people don't even notice.
+
+29:26.080 --> 29:28.200
+ And I'll like correct it and bring the conversation back.
+
+29:28.200 --> 29:30.600
+ But with Elon, it was like, nope, like, okay.
+
+29:30.600 --> 29:33.520
+ Well, that's not at all why the contract fell through.
+
+29:33.520 --> 29:35.520
+ I was much more prepared the second time I met him.
+
+29:35.520 --> 29:36.360
+ Yeah.
+
+29:36.360 --> 29:39.640
+ But in general, how hard did you think it,
+
+29:39.640 --> 29:43.680
+ like 12 months is a tough timeline?
+
+29:43.680 --> 29:45.720
+ Oh, I just thought I'd clone Mobileye IQ three.
+
+29:45.720 --> 29:47.560
+ I didn't think I'd solve level five self driving
+
+29:47.560 --> 29:48.400
+ or anything.
+
+29:48.400 --> 29:51.000
+ So the goal there was to do lane keeping,
+
+29:51.000 --> 29:52.840
+ good lane keeping.
+
+29:52.840 --> 29:55.560
+ I saw my friend showed me the outputs from Mobileye.
+
+29:55.560 --> 29:57.680
+ And the outputs from Mobileye was just basically two lanes
+
+29:57.680 --> 29:59.440
+ and a position of a lead car.
+
+29:59.440 --> 30:01.560
+ I'm like, I can gather a data set
+
+30:01.560 --> 30:03.440
+ and train this net in weeks.
+
+30:03.440 --> 30:04.840
+ And I did.
+
+30:04.840 --> 30:07.600
+ Well, first time I tried the implementation of Mobileye
+
+30:07.600 --> 30:11.240
+ in a Tesla, I was really surprised how good it is.
+
+30:11.240 --> 30:12.320
+ It's quite incredibly good.
+
+30:12.320 --> 30:14.080
+ Cause I thought it's just cause I've done
+
+30:14.080 --> 30:14.920
+ a lot of computer vision.
+
+30:14.920 --> 30:18.880
+ I thought it'd be a lot harder to create a system
+
+30:18.880 --> 30:20.040
+ that that's stable.
+
+30:21.000 --> 30:22.440
+ So I was personally surprised.
+
+30:22.440 --> 30:25.000
+ Just, you know, have to admit it.
+
+30:25.000 --> 30:27.840
+ Cause I was kind of skeptical before trying it.
+
+30:27.840 --> 30:31.200
+ Cause I thought it would go in and out a lot more.
+
+30:31.200 --> 30:33.160
+ It would get disengaged a lot more.
+
+30:33.160 --> 30:35.000
+ And it's pretty robust.
+
+30:36.200 --> 30:39.720
+ So what, how, how, how hard is the problem
+
+30:39.720 --> 30:42.080
+ when you, when you tackled it?
+
+30:42.080 --> 30:45.760
+ So I think AP one was great. Like Elon talked
+
+30:45.760 --> 30:49.040
+ about disengagements on the 405 down in LA
+
+30:49.040 --> 30:51.040
+ with like the lane marks were kind of faded
+
+30:51.040 --> 30:52.960
+ and the Mobileye system would drop out.
+
+30:53.960 --> 30:57.240
+ Like I had something up and working
+
+30:57.240 --> 31:01.440
+ that I would say was like the same quality in three months.
+
+31:02.480 --> 31:04.560
+ Same quality, but how do you know?
+
+31:04.560 --> 31:07.400
+ You say stuff like that confidently, but you can't,
+
+31:07.400 --> 31:12.120
+ and I love it, but the question is you can't,
+
+31:12.120 --> 31:13.880
+ you're kind of going by feel cause you just,
+
+31:13.880 --> 31:15.560
+ You're going by feel, absolutely, absolutely.
+
+31:15.560 --> 31:17.280
+ Like, like I would take, I hadn't,
+
+31:17.280 --> 31:18.480
+ I borrowed my friend's Tesla.
+
+31:18.480 --> 31:20.760
+ I would take AP one out for a drive.
+
+31:20.760 --> 31:22.320
+ And then I would take my system out for a drive.
+
+31:22.320 --> 31:24.440
+ And seems reasonably like the same.
+
+31:26.080 --> 31:30.480
+ So the 405, how hard is it to create something
+
+31:30.480 --> 31:34.200
+ that could actually be a product that's deployed?
+
+31:34.200 --> 31:39.200
+ I mean, I've read an article where Elon, this respond,
+
+31:39.520 --> 31:41.880
+ it said something about you saying that
+
+31:41.880 --> 31:46.880
+ to build autopilot is more complicated
+
+31:47.080 --> 31:51.880
+ than a single George Hodds level job.
+
+31:51.880 --> 31:55.520
+ How hard is that job to create something
+
+31:55.520 --> 31:57.480
+ that would work across the globally?
+
+31:58.960 --> 32:00.640
+ Why don't the global is the challenge,
+
+32:00.640 --> 32:02.240
+ but Elon followed that up by saying
+
+32:02.240 --> 32:04.920
+ it's going to take two years and a company of 10 people.
+
+32:04.920 --> 32:07.920
+ And here I am four years later with a company of 12 people.
+
+32:07.920 --> 32:09.960
+ And I think we still have another two to go.
+
+32:09.960 --> 32:10.800
+ Two years.
+
+32:10.800 --> 32:13.120
+ So yeah, so what do you think,
+
+32:13.120 --> 32:15.960
+ what do you think about how Tesla's progressing
+
+32:15.960 --> 32:19.200
+ with autopilot of V2, V3?
+
+32:19.200 --> 32:23.120
+ I think we've kept pace with them pretty well.
+
+32:24.080 --> 32:26.880
+ I think navigating autopilot is terrible.
+
+32:26.880 --> 32:31.120
+ We had some demo features internally of the same stuff
+
+32:31.120 --> 32:32.720
+ and we would test it and I'm like,
+
+32:32.720 --> 32:34.720
+ I'm not shipping this even as like open source software
+
+32:34.720 --> 32:35.560
+ to people.
+
+32:35.560 --> 32:37.400
+ What do you think is terrible?
+
+32:37.400 --> 32:39.600
+ Consumer Reports does a great job of describing it.
+
+32:39.600 --> 32:41.240
+ Like when it makes a lane change,
+
+32:41.240 --> 32:43.600
+ it does it worse than a human.
+
+32:43.600 --> 32:46.960
+ You shouldn't ship things like autopilot, open pilot,
+
+32:46.960 --> 32:49.760
+ they lane keep better than a human.
+
+32:49.760 --> 32:53.440
+ If you turn it on for a stretch of highway,
+
+32:53.440 --> 32:56.680
+ like an hour long, it's never going to touch a lane line.
+
+32:56.680 --> 32:59.040
+ Human will touch probably a lane line twice.
+
+32:59.040 --> 33:00.080
+ You just inspired me.
+
+33:00.080 --> 33:02.200
+ I don't know if you're grounded in data on that.
+
+33:02.200 --> 33:03.280
+ I read your paper.
+
+33:03.280 --> 33:05.400
+ Okay, but no, but that's interesting.
+
+33:06.720 --> 33:09.840
+ I wonder actually how often we touch lane lines
+
+33:11.200 --> 33:13.400
+ a little bit because it is.
+
+33:13.400 --> 33:14.960
+ I could answer that question pretty easily
+
+33:14.960 --> 33:15.800
+ with the common data side.
+
+33:15.800 --> 33:16.920
+ Yeah, I'm curious.
+
+33:16.920 --> 33:17.760
+ I've never answered it.
+
+33:17.760 --> 33:18.600
+ I don't know.
+
+33:18.600 --> 33:20.000
+ I just too was like my personal.
+
+33:20.000 --> 33:22.400
+ It feels right, but that's interesting
+
+33:22.400 --> 33:23.800
+ because every time you touch a lane,
+
+33:23.800 --> 33:26.760
+ that's a source of a little bit of stress
+
+33:26.760 --> 33:29.320
+ and kind of lane keeping is removing that stress.
+
+33:29.320 --> 33:31.840
+ That's ultimately the biggest value add
+
+33:31.840 --> 33:34.240
+ honestly is just removing the stress
+
+33:34.240 --> 33:35.480
+ of having to stay in lane.
+
+33:35.480 --> 33:39.040
+ And I think I don't think people fully realize
+
+33:39.040 --> 33:41.960
+ first of all that that's a big value add,
+
+33:41.960 --> 33:45.000
+ but also that that's all it is.
+
+33:45.000 --> 33:48.560
+ And that not only I find it a huge value add.
+
+33:48.560 --> 33:50.440
+ I drove down when we moved to San Diego,
+
+33:50.440 --> 33:52.640
+ I drove down in an enterprise rental car
+
+33:52.640 --> 33:53.480
+ and I missed it.
+
+33:53.480 --> 33:55.480
+ So I missed having the system so much.
+
+33:55.480 --> 33:59.200
+ It's so much more tiring to drive
+
+33:59.200 --> 34:00.320
+ without it.
+
+34:00.320 --> 34:02.960
+ It's, it is that lane centering.
+
+34:02.960 --> 34:04.840
+ That's the key feature.
+
+34:04.840 --> 34:05.680
+ Yeah.
+
+34:06.600 --> 34:08.960
+ And in a way it's the only feature
+
+34:08.960 --> 34:11.040
+ that actually adds value to people's lives
+
+34:11.040 --> 34:12.200
+ in autonomous vehicles today.
+
+34:12.200 --> 34:13.840
+ Waymo does not add value to people's lives.
+
+34:13.840 --> 34:15.880
+ It's a more expensive, slower Uber.
+
+34:15.880 --> 34:18.640
+ Maybe someday it'll be this big cliff where it adds value,
+
+34:18.640 --> 34:19.480
+ but I don't usually.
+
+34:19.480 --> 34:20.320
+ It's fascinating.
+
+34:20.320 --> 34:22.560
+ I haven't talked to, this is good.
+
+34:22.560 --> 34:25.840
+ Cause I haven't, I have intuitively,
+
+34:25.840 --> 34:28.320
+ but I think we're making it explicit now.
+
+34:28.320 --> 34:33.320
+ I actually believe that really good lane keeping
+
+34:35.480 --> 34:37.240
+ is a reason to buy a car.
+
+34:37.240 --> 34:38.440
+ Will be a reason to buy a car.
+
+34:38.440 --> 34:39.720
+ It is a huge value add.
+
+34:39.720 --> 34:41.760
+ I've never, until we just started talking about it,
+
+34:41.760 --> 34:43.880
+ haven't really quite realized it,
+
+34:43.880 --> 34:48.880
+ that I've felt with Elon's chase of level four
+
+34:49.440 --> 34:52.360
+ is not the correct chase.
+
+34:52.360 --> 34:56.000
+ It was on, cause you should just say Tesla has the best
+
+34:56.000 --> 34:58.320
+ as if from a Tesla perspective say,
+
+34:58.320 --> 35:00.600
+ Tesla has the best lane keeping.
+
+35:00.600 --> 35:04.160
+ Kama AI should say Kama AI is the best lane keeping.
+
+35:04.160 --> 35:05.640
+ And that is it.
+
+35:05.640 --> 35:06.480
+ Yeah.
+
+35:06.480 --> 35:07.320
+ Yeah.
+
+35:07.320 --> 35:08.160
+ Do you think?
+
+35:08.160 --> 35:09.920
+ You have to do the longitudinal as well.
+
+35:09.920 --> 35:10.960
+ You can't just lane keep.
+
+35:10.960 --> 35:12.920
+ You have to do ACC,
+
+35:12.920 --> 35:15.840
+ but ACC is much more forgiving than lane keep,
+
+35:15.840 --> 35:17.400
+ especially on the highway.
+
+35:17.400 --> 35:22.000
+ By the way, are you Kama AI's camera only, correct?
+
+35:22.000 --> 35:23.440
+ No, we use the radar.
+
+35:23.440 --> 35:26.960
+ We, from the car, you're able to get to, okay.
+
+35:26.960 --> 35:28.800
+ We can do it camera only now.
+
+35:28.800 --> 35:29.640
+ It's gotten to the point,
+
+35:29.640 --> 35:31.600
+ but we leave the radar there as like a,
+
+35:31.600 --> 35:33.440
+ it's fusion now.
+
+35:33.440 --> 35:35.440
+ Okay, so let's maybe talk through
+
+35:35.440 --> 35:37.920
+ some of the system specs on the hardware.
+
+35:37.920 --> 35:42.880
+ What's the hardware side of what you're providing?
+
+35:42.880 --> 35:44.720
+ What's the capabilities on the software side
+
+35:44.720 --> 35:46.800
+ with OpenPilot and so on?
+
+35:46.800 --> 35:51.800
+ So OpenPilot as the box that we sell that it runs on,
+
+35:51.800 --> 35:53.920
+ it's a phone in a plastic case.
+
+35:53.920 --> 35:54.840
+ It's nothing special.
+
+35:54.840 --> 35:56.200
+ We sell it without the software.
+
+35:56.200 --> 35:57.840
+ So you're like, you know, you buy the phone,
+
+35:57.840 --> 35:58.920
+ it's just easy.
+
+35:58.920 --> 36:00.240
+ It'll be easy set up,
+
+36:00.240 --> 36:01.720
+ but it's sold with no software.
+
+36:03.480 --> 36:06.600
+ OpenPilot right now is about to be 0.6.
+
+36:06.600 --> 36:07.880
+ When it gets to 1.0,
+
+36:07.880 --> 36:09.680
+ I think we'll be ready for a consumer product.
+
+36:09.680 --> 36:11.120
+ We're not gonna add any new features.
+
+36:11.120 --> 36:13.800
+ We're just gonna make the lane keeping really, really good.
+
+36:13.800 --> 36:15.120
+ Okay, I got it.
+
+36:15.120 --> 36:16.120
+ So what do we have right now?
+
+36:16.120 --> 36:18.200
+ It's a Snapdragon 820.
+
+36:18.200 --> 36:23.200
+ It's a Sony IMX 298 forward facing camera,
+
+36:23.680 --> 36:24.720
+ driver monitoring camera.
+
+36:24.720 --> 36:26.400
+ It's just a selfie cam on the phone.
+
+36:26.400 --> 36:30.000
+ And a can transceiver,
+
+36:30.000 --> 36:32.320
+ maybe it's a little thing called pandas.
+
+36:32.320 --> 36:35.040
+ And they talk over USB to the phone
+
+36:35.040 --> 36:36.400
+ and then they have three can buses
+
+36:36.400 --> 36:37.560
+ that they talk to the car.
+
+36:38.560 --> 36:40.920
+ One of those can buses is the radar can bus.
+
+36:40.920 --> 36:42.920
+ One of them is the main car can bus.
+
+36:42.920 --> 36:44.920
+ And the other one is the proxy camera can bus.
+
+36:44.920 --> 36:47.320
+ We leave the existing camera in place.
+
+36:47.320 --> 36:49.560
+ So we don't turn AEB off.
+
+36:49.560 --> 36:51.040
+ Right now we still turn AEB off
+
+36:51.040 --> 36:52.280
+ if you're using our longitudinal,
+
+36:52.280 --> 36:54.320
+ but we're gonna fix that before 1.0.
+
+36:54.320 --> 36:55.160
+ Got it.
+
+36:55.160 --> 36:56.000
+ Wow, that's cool.
+
+36:56.000 --> 36:57.960
+ So in its can both ways.
+
+36:57.960 --> 37:02.120
+ So how are you able to control vehicles?
+
+37:02.120 --> 37:05.520
+ So we proxy the vehicles that we work with
+
+37:05.520 --> 37:08.960
+ already have a lane keeping assist system.
+
+37:08.960 --> 37:12.520
+ So lane keeping assist can mean a huge variety of things.
+
+37:12.520 --> 37:16.120
+ It can mean it will apply a small torque
+
+37:16.120 --> 37:18.920
+ to the wheel after you've already crossed a lane line
+
+37:18.920 --> 37:22.720
+ by a foot, which is the system in the older Toyotas.
+
+37:22.720 --> 37:26.360
+ Versus like, I think Tesla still calls it lane keeping assist
+
+37:26.360 --> 37:28.920
+ where it'll keep you perfectly in the center of the lane
+
+37:28.920 --> 37:29.960
+ on the highway.
+
+37:31.240 --> 37:34.000
+ You can control like you with the joystick, the cars.
+
+37:34.000 --> 37:36.600
+ So these cars already have the capability of drive by wire.
+
+37:36.600 --> 37:41.600
+ So is it, is it trivial to convert a car
+
+37:41.600 --> 37:43.320
+ that it operates with?
+
+37:43.320 --> 37:47.480
+ It open pilot is able to control the steering.
+
+37:48.480 --> 37:49.720
+ Oh, a new car or a car that we,
+
+37:49.720 --> 37:52.800
+ so we have support now for 45 different makes of cars.
+
+37:52.800 --> 37:54.880
+ What are the cars in general?
+
+37:54.880 --> 37:56.360
+ Mostly Honda's and Toyotas.
+
+37:56.360 --> 38:00.640
+ We support almost every Honda and Toyota made this year.
+
+38:01.680 --> 38:04.480
+ And then bunch of GM's, bunch of Subaru's.
+
+38:04.480 --> 38:05.960
+ But it doesn't have to be like a Prius.
+
+38:05.960 --> 38:07.320
+ It could be Corolla as well.
+
+38:07.320 --> 38:10.760
+ Oh, the 2020 Corolla is the best car with open pilot.
+
+38:10.760 --> 38:11.720
+ It just came out there.
+
+38:11.720 --> 38:14.200
+ The actuator has less lag than the older Corolla.
+
+38:15.840 --> 38:18.240
+ I think I started watching a video with you.
+
+38:18.240 --> 38:21.480
+ I mean, the way you make videos is awesome.
+
+38:21.480 --> 38:24.320
+ It's just literally at the dealership streaming.
+
+38:25.320 --> 38:26.160
+ I had my friend to follow him.
+
+38:26.160 --> 38:27.560
+ I probably want to stream for an hour.
+
+38:27.560 --> 38:31.120
+ Yeah, and basically like if stuff goes a little wrong,
+
+38:31.120 --> 38:33.160
+ you just like, you just go with it.
+
+38:33.160 --> 38:34.000
+ Yeah, I love it.
+
+38:34.000 --> 38:34.840
+ It's real.
+
+38:34.840 --> 38:35.680
+ Yeah, it's real.
+
+38:35.680 --> 38:42.000
+ That's so beautiful and it's so in contrast to the way
+
+38:42.000 --> 38:44.600
+ other companies would put together a video like that.
+
+38:44.600 --> 38:46.000
+ Kind of why I like to do it like that.
+
+38:46.000 --> 38:46.840
+ Good.
+
+38:46.840 --> 38:49.720
+ I mean, if you become super rich one day and successful,
+
+38:49.720 --> 38:52.280
+ I hope you keep it that way because I think that's actually
+
+38:52.280 --> 38:54.600
+ what people love, that kind of genuine.
+
+38:54.600 --> 38:56.520
+ Oh, it's all that has value to me.
+
+38:56.520 --> 38:59.840
+ Money has no, if I sell out to like make money,
+
+38:59.840 --> 39:00.680
+ I sold out.
+
+39:00.680 --> 39:01.520
+ It doesn't matter.
+
+39:01.520 --> 39:02.360
+ What do I get?
+
+39:02.360 --> 39:04.440
+ Yacht, I don't want a yacht.
+
+39:04.440 --> 39:09.440
+ And I think Tesla actually has a small inkling of that
+
+39:09.440 --> 39:11.240
+ as well with autonomy day.
+
+39:11.240 --> 39:14.000
+ They did reveal more than, I mean, of course,
+
+39:14.000 --> 39:15.680
+ there's marketing communications, you could tell,
+
+39:15.680 --> 39:17.640
+ but it's more than most companies would reveal,
+
+39:17.640 --> 39:20.960
+ which is I hope they go towards that direction
+
+39:20.960 --> 39:23.000
+ more other companies, GM, Ford.
+
+39:23.000 --> 39:25.400
+ Oh, Tesla's going to win level five.
+
+39:25.400 --> 39:26.560
+ They really are.
+
+39:26.560 --> 39:27.800
+ So let's talk about it.
+
+39:27.800 --> 39:33.000
+ You think, you're focused on level two currently, currently.
+
+39:33.000 --> 39:36.160
+ We're going to be one to two years behind Tesla
+
+39:36.160 --> 39:37.160
+ getting to level five.
+
+39:37.160 --> 39:38.520
+ OK.
+
+39:38.520 --> 39:39.320
+ We're Android, right?
+
+39:39.320 --> 39:39.880
+ We're Android.
+
+39:39.880 --> 39:40.680
+ You're Android.
+
+39:40.680 --> 39:42.240
+ I'm just saying once Tesla gets it,
+
+39:42.240 --> 39:43.440
+ we're one to two years behind.
+
+39:43.440 --> 39:45.680
+ I'm not making any timeline on when Tesla's going to get it.
+
+39:45.680 --> 39:46.120
+ That's right.
+
+39:46.120 --> 39:46.360
+ You did.
+
+39:46.360 --> 39:46.960
+ That's brilliant.
+
+39:46.960 --> 39:48.560
+ I'm sorry, Tesla investors, if you
+
+39:48.560 --> 39:50.520
+ think you're going to have an autonomous robot taxi
+
+39:50.520 --> 39:54.920
+ fleet by the end of the year, I'll bet against that.
+
+39:54.920 --> 39:57.720
+ So what do you think about this?
+
+39:57.720 --> 40:03.280
+ The most level four companies are kind of just
+
+40:03.280 --> 40:08.360
+ doing their usual safety driver, doing full autonomy kind
+
+40:08.360 --> 40:08.800
+ of testing.
+
+40:08.800 --> 40:10.880
+ And then Tesla does basically trying
+
+40:10.880 --> 40:15.280
+ to go from lane keeping to full autonomy.
+
+40:15.280 --> 40:16.840
+ What do you think about that approach?
+
+40:16.840 --> 40:18.360
+ How successful would it be?
+
+40:18.360 --> 40:20.680
+ It's a ton better approach.
+
+40:20.680 --> 40:23.960
+ Because Tesla is gathering data on a scale
+
+40:23.960 --> 40:25.200
+ that none of them are.
+
+40:25.200 --> 40:29.560
+ They're putting real users behind the wheel of the cars.
+
+40:29.560 --> 40:34.440
+ It's, I think, the only strategy that works, the incremental.
+
+40:34.440 --> 40:37.000
+ Well, so there's a few components to Tesla approach
+
+40:37.000 --> 40:38.800
+ that's more than just the incremental.
+
+40:38.800 --> 40:41.400
+ What you spoke with is the software,
+
+40:41.400 --> 40:43.720
+ so over the air software updates.
+
+40:43.720 --> 40:44.800
+ Necessity.
+
+40:44.800 --> 40:46.440
+ I mean, Waymo crews have those too.
+
+40:46.440 --> 40:47.560
+ Those aren't.
+
+40:47.560 --> 40:48.080
+ But no.
+
+40:48.080 --> 40:49.800
+ Those differentiate from the automakers.
+
+40:49.800 --> 40:50.080
+ Right.
+
+40:50.080 --> 40:53.440
+ No lane keeping systems have no cars with lane keeping system
+
+40:53.440 --> 40:54.760
+ have that except Tesla.
+
+40:54.760 --> 40:55.720
+ Yeah.
+
+40:55.720 --> 40:59.760
+ And the other one is the data, the other direction,
+
+40:59.760 --> 41:01.840
+ which is the ability to query the data.
+
+41:01.840 --> 41:03.480
+ I don't think they're actually collecting
+
+41:03.480 --> 41:05.240
+ as much data as people think, but the ability
+
+41:05.240 --> 41:09.440
+ to turn on collection and turn it off.
+
+41:09.440 --> 41:13.400
+ So I'm both in the robotics world, in the psychology,
+
+41:13.400 --> 41:15.000
+ human factors world.
+
+41:15.000 --> 41:17.320
+ Many people believe that level two autonomy
+
+41:17.320 --> 41:20.040
+ is problematic because of the human factor.
+
+41:20.040 --> 41:23.280
+ Like the more the task is automated,
+
+41:23.280 --> 41:25.960
+ the more there's a vigilance decrement.
+
+41:25.960 --> 41:27.200
+ You start to fall asleep.
+
+41:27.200 --> 41:30.480
+ You start to become complacent, start texting more and so on.
+
+41:30.480 --> 41:32.200
+ Do you worry about that?
+
+41:32.200 --> 41:35.000
+ Because if you're talking about transition from lane keeping
+
+41:35.000 --> 41:40.960
+ to full autonomy, if you're spending 80% of the time
+
+41:40.960 --> 41:43.080
+ not supervising the machine, do you
+
+41:43.080 --> 41:47.080
+ worry about what that means for the safety of the drivers?
+
+41:47.080 --> 41:49.640
+ One, we don't consider OpenPilot to be 1.0
+
+41:49.640 --> 41:52.880
+ until we have 100% driver monitoring.
+
+41:52.880 --> 41:55.000
+ You can cheat right now, our driver monitoring system.
+
+41:55.000 --> 41:56.080
+ There's a few ways to cheat it.
+
+41:56.080 --> 41:58.160
+ They're pretty obvious.
+
+41:58.160 --> 41:59.680
+ We're working on making that better.
+
+41:59.680 --> 42:02.520
+ Before we ship a consumer product that can drive cars,
+
+42:02.520 --> 42:04.240
+ I want to make sure that I have driver monitoring
+
+42:04.240 --> 42:05.440
+ that you can't cheat.
+
+42:05.440 --> 42:09.000
+ What's a successful driver monitoring system look like?
+
+42:09.000 --> 42:11.680
+ Is it all about just keeping your eyes on the road?
+
+42:11.680 --> 42:12.760
+ Well, a few things.
+
+42:12.760 --> 42:16.600
+ So that's what we went with at first for driver monitoring.
+
+42:16.600 --> 42:17.160
+ I'm checking.
+
+42:17.160 --> 42:19.000
+ I'm actually looking at where your head is looking.
+
+42:19.000 --> 42:19.880
+ The camera's not that high.
+
+42:19.880 --> 42:21.840
+ Resolution eyes are a little bit hard to get.
+
+42:21.840 --> 42:22.880
+ Well, head is big.
+
+42:22.880 --> 42:23.560
+ I mean, that's just.
+
+42:23.560 --> 42:24.640
+ Head is good.
+
+42:24.640 --> 42:28.720
+ And actually, a lot of it, just psychology wise,
+
+42:28.720 --> 42:30.720
+ to have that monitor constantly there,
+
+42:30.720 --> 42:33.400
+ it reminds you that you have to be paying attention.
+
+42:33.400 --> 42:35.080
+ But we want to go further.
+
+42:35.080 --> 42:36.760
+ We just hired someone full time to come on
+
+42:36.760 --> 42:37.960
+ to do the driver monitoring.
+
+42:37.960 --> 42:40.600
+ I want to detect phone in frame, and I
+
+42:40.600 --> 42:42.600
+ want to make sure you're not sleeping.
+
+42:42.600 --> 42:44.880
+ How much does the camera see of the body?
+
+42:44.880 --> 42:47.480
+ This one, not enough.
+
+42:47.480 --> 42:48.400
+ Not enough.
+
+42:48.400 --> 42:50.720
+ The next one, everything.
+
+42:50.720 --> 42:52.920
+ What's interesting, FishEye, is we're
+
+42:52.920 --> 42:55.200
+ doing just data collection, not real time.
+
+42:55.200 --> 42:59.200
+ But FishEye is a beautiful being able to capture the body.
+
+42:59.200 --> 43:03.280
+ And the smartphone is really the biggest problem.
+
+43:03.280 --> 43:03.880
+ I'll show you.
+
+43:03.880 --> 43:07.800
+ I can show you one of the pictures from our new system.
+
+43:07.800 --> 43:08.160
+ Awesome.
+
+43:08.160 --> 43:10.520
+ So you're basically saying the driver monitoring
+
+43:10.520 --> 43:13.080
+ will be the answer to that.
+
+43:13.080 --> 43:15.320
+ I think the other point that you raised in your paper
+
+43:15.320 --> 43:16.920
+ is good as well.
+
+43:16.920 --> 43:20.400
+ You're not asking a human to supervise a machine
+
+43:20.400 --> 43:23.920
+ without giving them the they can take over at any time.
+
+43:23.920 --> 43:25.760
+ Our safety model, you can take over.
+
+43:25.760 --> 43:27.720
+ We disengage on both the gas or the brake.
+
+43:27.720 --> 43:28.880
+ We don't disengage on steering.
+
+43:28.880 --> 43:29.920
+ I don't feel you have to.
+
+43:29.920 --> 43:31.720
+ But we disengage on gas or brake.
+
+43:31.720 --> 43:34.240
+ So it's very easy for you to take over.
+
+43:34.240 --> 43:36.400
+ And it's very easy for you to reengage.
+
+43:36.400 --> 43:39.320
+ That switching should be super cheap.
+
+43:39.320 --> 43:40.800
+ The cars that require, even autopilot,
+
+43:40.800 --> 43:42.400
+ requires a double press.
+
+43:42.400 --> 43:44.360
+ That's almost, I see, I don't like that.
+
+43:44.360 --> 43:46.440
+ And then the cancel.
+
+43:46.440 --> 43:48.320
+ To cancel in autopilot, you either
+
+43:48.320 --> 43:49.920
+ have to press cancel, which no one knows where that is.
+
+43:49.920 --> 43:51.000
+ So they press the brake.
+
+43:51.000 --> 43:53.360
+ But a lot of times you don't want to press the brake.
+
+43:53.360 --> 43:54.560
+ You want to press the gas.
+
+43:54.560 --> 43:56.880
+ So you should cancel on gas or wiggle the steering wheel,
+
+43:56.880 --> 43:57.960
+ which is bad as well.
+
+43:57.960 --> 43:58.920
+ Wow, that's brilliant.
+
+43:58.920 --> 44:01.440
+ I haven't heard anyone articulate that point.
+
+44:01.440 --> 44:04.960
+ Oh, there's a lot I think about.
+
+44:04.960 --> 44:09.800
+ Because I think actually Tesla has done a better job
+
+44:09.800 --> 44:12.920
+ than most automakers at making that frictionless.
+
+44:12.920 --> 44:16.600
+ But you just described that it could be even better.
+
+44:16.600 --> 44:19.320
+ I love Super Cruise as an experience.
+
+44:19.320 --> 44:21.120
+ Once it's engaged.
+
+44:21.120 --> 44:22.800
+ I don't know if you've used it, but getting the thing
+
+44:22.800 --> 44:25.040
+ to try to engage.
+
+44:25.040 --> 44:27.480
+ Yeah, I've used the driven Super Cruise a lot.
+
+44:27.480 --> 44:29.680
+ So what's your thoughts on the Super Cruise system in general?
+
+44:29.680 --> 44:32.640
+ You disengage Super Cruise, and it falls back to ACC.
+
+44:32.640 --> 44:34.600
+ So my car is still accelerating.
+
+44:34.600 --> 44:36.280
+ It feels weird.
+
+44:36.280 --> 44:39.000
+ Otherwise, when you actually have Super Cruise engaged
+
+44:39.000 --> 44:41.200
+ on the highway, it is phenomenal.
+
+44:41.200 --> 44:42.320
+ We bought that Cadillac.
+
+44:42.320 --> 44:43.240
+ We just sold it.
+
+44:43.240 --> 44:45.600
+ But we bought it just to experience this.
+
+44:45.600 --> 44:47.440
+ And I wanted everyone in the office to be like,
+
+44:47.440 --> 44:49.360
+ this is what we're striving to build.
+
+44:49.360 --> 44:52.800
+ GM pioneering with the driver monitoring.
+
+44:52.800 --> 44:55.040
+ You like their driver monitoring system?
+
+44:55.040 --> 44:56.440
+ It has some bugs.
+
+44:56.440 --> 45:01.960
+ If there's a sun shining back here, it'll be blind to you.
+
+45:01.960 --> 45:03.360
+ But overall, mostly, yeah.
+
+45:03.360 --> 45:05.960
+ That's so cool that you know all this stuff.
+
+45:05.960 --> 45:09.960
+ I don't often talk to people that because it's such a rare car,
+
+45:09.960 --> 45:10.960
+ unfortunately, currently.
+
+45:10.960 --> 45:12.760
+ We bought one explicitly for that.
+
+45:12.760 --> 45:15.040
+ We lost like $25K in the deprecation,
+
+45:15.040 --> 45:16.720
+ but it feels worth it.
+
+45:16.720 --> 45:21.280
+ I was very pleasantly surprised that our GM system
+
+45:21.280 --> 45:26.320
+ was so innovative and really wasn't advertised much,
+
+45:26.320 --> 45:28.480
+ wasn't talked about much.
+
+45:28.480 --> 45:31.840
+ And I was nervous that it would die, that it would disappear.
+
+45:31.840 --> 45:33.520
+ Well, they put it on the wrong car.
+
+45:33.520 --> 45:35.680
+ They should have put it on the bolt and not some weird Cadillac
+
+45:35.680 --> 45:36.640
+ that nobody bought.
+
+45:36.640 --> 45:39.520
+ I think that's going to be into, they're saying at least
+
+45:39.520 --> 45:41.840
+ it's going to be into their entire fleet.
+
+45:41.840 --> 45:44.320
+ So what do you think about, as long as we're
+
+45:44.320 --> 45:46.920
+ on the driver monitoring, what do you think
+
+45:46.920 --> 45:51.920
+ about Elon Musk's claim that driver monitoring is not needed?
+
+45:51.920 --> 45:53.680
+ Normally, I love his claims.
+
+45:53.680 --> 45:55.560
+ That one is stupid.
+
+45:55.560 --> 45:56.560
+ That one is stupid.
+
+45:56.560 --> 46:00.320
+ And he's not going to have his level five fleet
+
+46:00.320 --> 46:01.320
+ by the end of the year.
+
+46:01.320 --> 46:04.880
+ Hopefully, he's like, OK, I was wrong.
+
+46:04.880 --> 46:06.280
+ I'm going to add driver monitoring.
+
+46:06.280 --> 46:08.240
+ Because when these systems get to the point
+
+46:08.240 --> 46:10.320
+ that they're only messing up once every 1,000 miles,
+
+46:10.320 --> 46:14.080
+ you absolutely need driver monitoring.
+
+46:14.080 --> 46:15.880
+ So let me play, because I agree with you,
+
+46:15.880 --> 46:17.320
+ but let me play devil's advocate.
+
+46:17.320 --> 46:22.440
+ One possibility is that without driver monitoring,
+
+46:22.440 --> 46:29.400
+ people are able to self regulate, monitor themselves.
+
+46:29.400 --> 46:30.680
+ So your idea is, I'm just.
+
+46:30.680 --> 46:34.160
+ You're seeing all the people sleeping in Teslas?
+
+46:34.160 --> 46:35.280
+ Yeah.
+
+46:35.280 --> 46:38.320
+ Well, I'm a little skeptical of all the people sleeping
+
+46:38.320 --> 46:43.960
+ in Teslas because I've stopped paying attention to that kind
+
+46:43.960 --> 46:45.680
+ of stuff because I want to see real data.
+
+46:45.680 --> 46:47.240
+ It's too much glorified.
+
+46:47.240 --> 46:48.720
+ It doesn't feel scientific to me.
+
+46:48.720 --> 46:52.560
+ So I want to know how many people are really sleeping
+
+46:52.560 --> 46:55.080
+ in Teslas versus sleeping.
+
+46:55.080 --> 46:57.640
+ I was driving here, sleep deprived,
+
+46:57.640 --> 46:59.520
+ in a car with no automation.
+
+46:59.520 --> 47:01.040
+ I was falling asleep.
+
+47:01.040 --> 47:02.120
+ I agree that it's hypey.
+
+47:02.120 --> 47:04.840
+ It's just like, you know what?
+
+47:04.840 --> 47:08.480
+ If Elon put driver monitoring, my last autopilot experience
+
+47:08.480 --> 47:12.200
+ was I rented a Model 3 in March and drove it around.
+
+47:12.200 --> 47:13.640
+ The wheel thing is annoying.
+
+47:13.640 --> 47:15.440
+ And the reason the wheel thing is annoying.
+
+47:15.440 --> 47:17.080
+ We use the wheel thing as well, but we
+
+47:17.080 --> 47:18.720
+ don't disengage on wheel.
+
+47:18.720 --> 47:21.720
+ For Tesla, you have to touch the wheel just enough
+
+47:21.720 --> 47:25.320
+ to trigger the torque sensor to tell it that you're there,
+
+47:25.320 --> 47:29.720
+ but not enough as to disengage it, which don't use it
+
+47:29.720 --> 47:30.440
+ for two things.
+
+47:30.440 --> 47:31.360
+ Don't disengage on wheel.
+
+47:31.360 --> 47:32.400
+ You don't have to.
+
+47:32.400 --> 47:35.360
+ That whole experience, wow, beautifully put.
+
+47:35.360 --> 47:38.360
+ All those elements, even if you don't have driver monitoring,
+
+47:38.360 --> 47:41.080
+ that whole experience needs to be better.
+
+47:41.080 --> 47:43.760
+ Driver monitoring, I think would make,
+
+47:43.760 --> 47:46.200
+ I mean, I think supercruise is a better experience
+
+47:46.200 --> 47:48.440
+ once it's engaged over autopilot.
+
+47:48.440 --> 47:51.600
+ I think supercruise is a transition to engagement
+
+47:51.600 --> 47:55.200
+ and disengagement are significantly worse.
+
+47:55.200 --> 47:57.880
+ There's a tricky thing, because if I were to criticize
+
+47:57.880 --> 48:00.800
+ supercruise, it's a little too crude.
+
+48:00.800 --> 48:03.640
+ And I think it's like six seconds or something.
+
+48:03.640 --> 48:06.080
+ If you look off road, it'll start warning you.
+
+48:06.080 --> 48:09.120
+ It's some ridiculously long period of time.
+
+48:09.120 --> 48:14.120
+ And just the way, I think it's basically, it's a binary.
+
+48:15.840 --> 48:17.440
+ It should be adapted.
+
+48:17.440 --> 48:19.880
+ Yeah, it needs to learn more about you.
+
+48:19.880 --> 48:23.160
+ It needs to communicate what it sees about you more.
+
+48:23.160 --> 48:25.800
+ I'm not, you know, Tesla shows what it sees
+
+48:25.800 --> 48:27.160
+ about the external world.
+
+48:27.160 --> 48:29.120
+ It would be nice if supercruise would tell us
+
+48:29.120 --> 48:30.840
+ what it sees about the internal world.
+
+48:30.840 --> 48:31.960
+ It's even worse than that.
+
+48:31.960 --> 48:33.320
+ You press the button to engage
+
+48:33.320 --> 48:35.480
+ and it just says supercruise unavailable.
+
+48:35.480 --> 48:36.320
+ Yeah, why?
+
+48:36.320 --> 48:37.800
+ Why?
+
+48:37.800 --> 48:41.480
+ Yeah, that transparency is good.
+
+48:41.480 --> 48:43.520
+ We've renamed the driver monitoring packet
+
+48:43.520 --> 48:45.360
+ to driver state.
+
+48:45.360 --> 48:46.280
+ Driver state.
+
+48:46.280 --> 48:48.360
+ We have car state packet, which has the state of the car
+
+48:48.360 --> 48:51.040
+ and driver state packet, which has state of the driver.
+
+48:51.040 --> 48:52.240
+ So what is it?
+
+48:52.240 --> 48:54.080
+ Estimate their BAC.
+
+48:54.080 --> 48:54.920
+ What's BAC?
+
+48:54.920 --> 48:55.920
+ Blood alcohol, kind of.
+
+48:57.360 --> 48:59.240
+ You think that's possible with computer vision?
+
+48:59.240 --> 49:00.080
+ Absolutely.
+
+49:02.560 --> 49:04.520
+ It's a, to me, it's an open question.
+
+49:04.520 --> 49:06.600
+ I haven't looked into too much.
+
+49:06.600 --> 49:08.440
+ Actually, I quite seriously looked at the literature.
+
+49:08.440 --> 49:10.840
+ It's not obvious to me that from the eyes and so on,
+
+49:10.840 --> 49:11.680
+ you can tell.
+
+49:11.680 --> 49:13.440
+ You might need stuff from the car as well.
+
+49:13.440 --> 49:15.760
+ You might need how they're controlling the car, right?
+
+49:15.760 --> 49:17.360
+ And that's fundamentally at the end of the day
+
+49:17.360 --> 49:18.640
+ what you care about.
+
+49:18.640 --> 49:21.640
+ But I think, especially when people are really drunk,
+
+49:21.640 --> 49:23.640
+ they're not controlling the car nearly as smoothly
+
+49:23.640 --> 49:25.160
+ as they would look at them walking, right?
+
+49:25.160 --> 49:27.240
+ They're, the car is like an extension of the body.
+
+49:27.240 --> 49:29.360
+ So I think you could totally detect.
+
+49:29.360 --> 49:30.880
+ And if you could fix people who are drunk,
+
+49:30.880 --> 49:32.840
+ distracted, asleep, if you fix those three.
+
+49:32.840 --> 49:35.480
+ Yeah, that's a huge, that's huge.
+
+49:35.480 --> 49:38.240
+ So what are the current limitations of OpenPilot?
+
+49:38.240 --> 49:41.720
+ What are the main problems that still need to be solved?
+
+49:41.720 --> 49:45.440
+ We're hopefully fixing a few of them in zero six.
+
+49:45.440 --> 49:48.400
+ We're not as good as autopilot at stop cars.
+
+49:49.440 --> 49:54.240
+ So if you're coming up to a red light at like 55,
+
+49:55.200 --> 49:56.880
+ so it's the radar stopped car problem,
+
+49:56.880 --> 49:59.200
+ which is responsible for two autopilot accidents,
+
+49:59.200 --> 50:01.480
+ it's hard to differentiate a stopped car
+
+50:01.480 --> 50:03.640
+ from a like signpost.
+
+50:03.640 --> 50:05.320
+ Yeah, static object.
+
+50:05.320 --> 50:07.520
+ So you have to fuse, you have to do this visually.
+
+50:07.520 --> 50:09.600
+ There's no way from the radar data to tell the difference.
+
+50:09.600 --> 50:10.680
+ Maybe you can make a map,
+
+50:10.680 --> 50:13.840
+ but I don't really believe in mapping at all anymore.
+
+50:13.840 --> 50:14.920
+ Wait, wait, wait, what?
+
+50:14.920 --> 50:16.040
+ You don't believe in mapping?
+
+50:16.040 --> 50:16.880
+ No.
+
+50:16.880 --> 50:21.120
+ So you're basically, the OpenPilot solution is saying,
+
+50:21.120 --> 50:22.480
+ react to the environment as you see it,
+
+50:22.480 --> 50:24.480
+ just like human doing beings do.
+
+50:24.480 --> 50:26.200
+ And then eventually when you want to do navigate
+
+50:26.200 --> 50:30.400
+ on OpenPilot, I'll train the net to look at ways.
+
+50:30.400 --> 50:31.360
+ I'll run ways in the background,
+
+50:31.360 --> 50:32.200
+ I'll train and come down a way.
+
+50:32.200 --> 50:33.560
+ Are you using GPS at all?
+
+50:33.560 --> 50:34.840
+ We use it to ground truth.
+
+50:34.840 --> 50:37.440
+ We use it to very carefully ground truth the paths.
+
+50:37.440 --> 50:39.560
+ We have a stack which can recover relative
+
+50:39.560 --> 50:41.800
+ to 10 centimeters over one minute.
+
+50:41.800 --> 50:43.440
+ And then we use that to ground truth
+
+50:43.440 --> 50:45.880
+ exactly where the car went in that local part
+
+50:45.880 --> 50:47.800
+ of the environment, but it's all local.
+
+50:47.800 --> 50:49.160
+ How are you testing in general?
+
+50:49.160 --> 50:51.400
+ Just for yourself, like experiments and stuff.
+
+50:51.400 --> 50:54.000
+ Where are you located?
+
+50:54.000 --> 50:54.840
+ San Diego.
+
+50:54.840 --> 50:55.680
+ San Diego.
+
+50:55.680 --> 50:56.520
+ Yeah.
+
+50:56.520 --> 50:57.360
+ Okay.
+
+50:57.360 --> 50:59.760
+ So you basically drive around there,
+
+50:59.760 --> 51:02.200
+ collect some data and watch the performance?
+
+51:02.200 --> 51:04.800
+ We have a simulator now and we have,
+
+51:04.800 --> 51:06.440
+ our simulator is really cool.
+
+51:06.440 --> 51:08.120
+ Our simulator is not,
+
+51:08.120 --> 51:09.720
+ it's not like a Unity based simulator.
+
+51:09.720 --> 51:11.840
+ Our simulator lets us load in real estate.
+
+51:12.880 --> 51:13.720
+ What do you mean?
+
+51:13.720 --> 51:16.760
+ We can load in a drive and simulate
+
+51:16.760 --> 51:20.280
+ what the system would have done on the historical data.
+
+51:20.280 --> 51:21.480
+ Ooh, nice.
+
+51:22.520 --> 51:24.360
+ Interesting.
+
+51:24.360 --> 51:26.080
+ Right now we're only using it for testing,
+
+51:26.080 --> 51:28.640
+ but as soon as we start using it for training.
+
+51:28.640 --> 51:29.480
+ That's it.
+
+51:29.480 --> 51:30.840
+ That's all set up for us.
+
+51:30.840 --> 51:33.040
+ What's your feeling about the real world versus simulation?
+
+51:33.040 --> 51:34.320
+ Do you like simulation for training?
+
+51:34.320 --> 51:35.720
+ If this moves to training?
+
+51:35.720 --> 51:40.040
+ So we have to distinguish two types of simulators, right?
+
+51:40.040 --> 51:44.720
+ There's a simulator that like is completely fake.
+
+51:44.720 --> 51:46.720
+ I could get my car to drive around in GTA.
+
+51:47.800 --> 51:51.080
+ I feel that this kind of simulator is useless.
+
+51:51.880 --> 51:53.640
+ You're never, there's so many.
+
+51:54.640 --> 51:57.000
+ My analogy here is like, okay, fine.
+
+51:57.000 --> 51:59.920
+ You're not solving the computer vision problem,
+
+51:59.920 --> 52:02.440
+ but you're solving the computer graphics problem.
+
+52:02.440 --> 52:03.280
+ Right.
+
+52:03.280 --> 52:04.600
+ And you don't think you can get very far
+
+52:04.600 --> 52:08.040
+ by creating ultra realistic graphics?
+
+52:08.040 --> 52:10.360
+ No, because you can create ultra realistic graphics
+
+52:10.360 --> 52:13.160
+ or the road, now create ultra realistic behavioral models
+
+52:13.160 --> 52:14.600
+ of the other cars.
+
+52:14.600 --> 52:16.920
+ Oh, well, I'll just use myself driving.
+
+52:16.920 --> 52:18.280
+ No, you won't.
+
+52:18.280 --> 52:21.640
+ You need real, you need actual human behavior
+
+52:21.640 --> 52:23.320
+ because that's what you're trying to learn.
+
+52:23.320 --> 52:25.840
+ The driving does not have a spec.
+
+52:25.840 --> 52:29.920
+ The definition of driving is what humans do when they drive.
+
+52:29.920 --> 52:32.800
+ Whatever Waymo does, I don't think it's driving.
+
+52:32.800 --> 52:33.640
+ Right.
+
+52:33.640 --> 52:36.400
+ Well, I think actually Waymo and others,
+
+52:36.400 --> 52:38.920
+ if there's any use for reinforcement learning,
+
+52:38.920 --> 52:40.360
+ I've seen it used quite well.
+
+52:40.360 --> 52:41.640
+ I studied pedestrians a lot too,
+
+52:41.640 --> 52:44.360
+ is try to train models from real data
+
+52:44.360 --> 52:46.920
+ of how pedestrians move and try to use reinforcement learning
+
+52:46.920 --> 52:50.040
+ models to make pedestrians move in human like ways.
+
+52:50.040 --> 52:53.520
+ By that point, you've already gone so many layers,
+
+52:53.520 --> 52:55.680
+ you detected a pedestrian.
+
+52:55.680 --> 52:59.640
+ Did you hand code the feature vector of their state?
+
+52:59.640 --> 53:00.480
+ Right.
+
+53:00.480 --> 53:02.880
+ Did you guys learn anything from computer vision
+
+53:02.880 --> 53:04.600
+ before deep learning?
+
+53:04.600 --> 53:07.160
+ Well, okay, I feel like this is...
+
+53:07.160 --> 53:10.840
+ So perception to you is the sticking point.
+
+53:10.840 --> 53:13.760
+ I mean, what's the hardest part of the stack here?
+
+53:13.760 --> 53:18.760
+ There is no human understandable feature vector
+
+53:19.680 --> 53:22.000
+ separating perception and planning.
+
+53:23.040 --> 53:25.120
+ That's the best way I can put that.
+
+53:25.120 --> 53:25.960
+ There is no...
+
+53:25.960 --> 53:29.600
+ So it's all together and it's a joint problem.
+
+53:29.600 --> 53:31.480
+ So you can take localization.
+
+53:31.480 --> 53:32.960
+ Localization and planning,
+
+53:32.960 --> 53:34.760
+ there is a human understandable feature vector
+
+53:34.760 --> 53:36.000
+ between these two things.
+
+53:36.000 --> 53:38.720
+ I mean, okay, so I have like three degrees position,
+
+53:38.720 --> 53:40.560
+ three degrees orientation and those derivatives,
+
+53:40.560 --> 53:42.000
+ maybe those second derivatives, right?
+
+53:42.000 --> 53:44.520
+ That's human understandable, that's physical.
+
+53:44.520 --> 53:48.560
+ The between perception and planning.
+
+53:49.520 --> 53:53.600
+ So like Waymo has a perception stack and then a planner.
+
+53:53.600 --> 53:55.560
+ And one of the things Waymo does right
+
+53:55.560 --> 54:00.000
+ is they have a simulator that can separate those two.
+
+54:00.000 --> 54:02.920
+ They can like replay their perception data
+
+54:02.920 --> 54:03.920
+ and test their system,
+
+54:03.920 --> 54:04.880
+ which is what I'm talking about
+
+54:04.880 --> 54:06.520
+ about like the two different kinds of simulators.
+
+54:06.520 --> 54:08.240
+ There's the kind that can work on real data
+
+54:08.240 --> 54:10.920
+ and there's the kind that can't work on real data.
+
+54:10.920 --> 54:13.880
+ Now, the problem is that I don't think
+
+54:13.880 --> 54:16.160
+ you can hand code a feature vector, right?
+
+54:16.160 --> 54:17.360
+ Like you have some list of like,
+
+54:17.360 --> 54:19.040
+ well, here's my list of cars in the scenes.
+
+54:19.040 --> 54:21.280
+ Here's my list of pedestrians in the scene.
+
+54:21.280 --> 54:23.240
+ This isn't what humans are doing.
+
+54:23.240 --> 54:24.920
+ What are humans doing?
+
+54:24.920 --> 54:25.760
+ Global.
+
+54:27.200 --> 54:28.040
+ Some, some.
+
+54:28.040 --> 54:31.960
+ You're saying that's too difficult to hand engineer.
+
+54:31.960 --> 54:34.120
+ I'm saying that there is no state vector.
+
+54:34.120 --> 54:36.560
+ Given a perfect, I could give you the best team
+
+54:36.560 --> 54:38.520
+ of engineers in the world to build a perception system
+
+54:38.520 --> 54:40.640
+ and the best team to build a planner.
+
+54:40.640 --> 54:42.640
+ All you have to do is define the state vector
+
+54:42.640 --> 54:43.960
+ that separates those two.
+
+54:43.960 --> 54:48.560
+ I'm missing the state vector that separates those two.
+
+54:48.560 --> 54:49.400
+ What do you mean?
+
+54:49.400 --> 54:54.000
+ So what is the output of your perception system?
+
+54:54.000 --> 54:56.880
+ Output of the perception system.
+
+54:56.880 --> 55:01.560
+ It's, there's, okay, well, there's several ways to do it.
+
+55:01.560 --> 55:03.840
+ One is the slam component is localization.
+
+55:03.840 --> 55:05.920
+ The other is drivable area, drivable space.
+
+55:05.920 --> 55:06.760
+ Drivable space, yep.
+
+55:06.760 --> 55:09.000
+ And then there's the different objects in the scene.
+
+55:09.000 --> 55:09.840
+ Yep.
+
+55:11.000 --> 55:16.000
+ And different objects in the scene over time maybe
+
+55:16.000 --> 55:18.720
+ to give you input to then try to start
+
+55:18.720 --> 55:21.560
+ modeling the trajectories of those objects.
+
+55:21.560 --> 55:22.400
+ Sure.
+
+55:22.400 --> 55:23.240
+ That's it.
+
+55:23.240 --> 55:25.160
+ I can give you a concrete example of something you missed.
+
+55:25.160 --> 55:26.000
+ What's that?
+
+55:26.000 --> 55:28.640
+ So say there's a bush in the scene.
+
+55:28.640 --> 55:30.920
+ Humans understand that when they see this bush
+
+55:30.920 --> 55:34.680
+ that there may or may not be a car behind that bush.
+
+55:34.680 --> 55:37.280
+ Drivable area and a list of objects does not include that.
+
+55:37.280 --> 55:38.920
+ Humans are doing this constantly
+
+55:38.920 --> 55:40.920
+ at the simplest intersections.
+
+55:40.920 --> 55:43.880
+ So now you have to talk about occluded area.
+
+55:43.880 --> 55:44.720
+ Right.
+
+55:44.720 --> 55:47.800
+ Right, but even that, what do you mean by occluded?
+
+55:47.800 --> 55:49.640
+ Okay, so I can't see it.
+
+55:49.640 --> 55:51.840
+ Well, if it's the other side of a house, I don't care.
+
+55:51.840 --> 55:53.560
+ What's the likelihood that there's a car
+
+55:53.560 --> 55:55.280
+ in that occluded area, right?
+
+55:55.280 --> 55:58.080
+ And if you say, okay, we'll add that,
+
+55:58.080 --> 56:00.680
+ I can come up with 10 more examples that you can't add.
+
+56:01.680 --> 56:03.960
+ Certainly occluded area would be something
+
+56:03.960 --> 56:06.760
+ that simulator would have because it's simulating
+
+56:06.760 --> 56:11.320
+ the entire, you know, occlusion is part of it.
+
+56:11.320 --> 56:12.680
+ Occlusion is part of a vision stack.
+
+56:12.680 --> 56:13.520
+ Vision stack.
+
+56:13.520 --> 56:16.600
+ But what I'm saying is if you have a hand engineered,
+
+56:16.600 --> 56:20.040
+ if your perception system output can be written
+
+56:20.040 --> 56:22.240
+ in a spec document, it is incomplete.
+
+56:23.120 --> 56:27.800
+ Yeah, I mean, I certainly, it's hard to argue with that
+
+56:27.800 --> 56:30.120
+ because in the end, that's going to be true.
+
+56:30.120 --> 56:31.760
+ Yeah, and I'll tell you what the output
+
+56:31.760 --> 56:32.720
+ of our perception system is.
+
+56:32.720 --> 56:33.560
+ What's that?
+
+56:33.560 --> 56:37.120
+ It's a 1024 dimensional vector.
+
+56:37.120 --> 56:38.000
+ Transparent neural net.
+
+56:38.000 --> 56:39.000
+ Oh, you know that.
+
+56:39.000 --> 56:42.000
+ No, that's the 1024 dimensions of who knows what.
+
+56:43.520 --> 56:45.160
+ Because it's operating on real data.
+
+56:45.160 --> 56:47.000
+ Yeah.
+
+56:47.000 --> 56:48.320
+ And that's the perception.
+
+56:48.320 --> 56:50.360
+ That's the perception state, right?
+
+56:50.360 --> 56:53.520
+ Think about an autoencoder for faces, right?
+
+56:53.520 --> 56:54.720
+ If you have an autoencoder for faces
+
+56:54.720 --> 56:59.720
+ and you say it has 256 dimensions in the middle,
+
+56:59.720 --> 57:00.680
+ and I'm taking a face over here
+
+57:00.680 --> 57:02.800
+ and projecting it to a face over here.
+
+57:02.800 --> 57:05.360
+ Can you hand label all 256 of those dimensions?
+
+57:06.280 --> 57:09.240
+ Well, no, but those are generated automatically.
+
+57:09.240 --> 57:11.360
+ But even if you tried to do it by hand,
+
+57:11.360 --> 57:15.520
+ could you come up with a spec between your encoder
+
+57:15.520 --> 57:16.360
+ and your decoder?
+
+57:17.400 --> 57:20.720
+ No, no, because it wasn't designed, but they're...
+
+57:20.720 --> 57:22.600
+ No, no, no, but if you could design it,
+
+57:23.600 --> 57:26.480
+ if you could design a face reconstructor system,
+
+57:26.480 --> 57:28.080
+ could you come up with a spec?
+
+57:29.240 --> 57:32.320
+ No, but I think we're missing here a little bit.
+
+57:32.320 --> 57:35.080
+ I think you're just being very poetic
+
+57:35.080 --> 57:37.880
+ about expressing a fundamental problem of simulators,
+
+57:37.880 --> 57:41.640
+ that they are going to be missing so much
+
+57:42.480 --> 57:44.680
+ that the feature of actually
+
+57:44.680 --> 57:47.080
+ would just look fundamentally different
+
+57:47.080 --> 57:50.440
+ from in the simulated world than the real world.
+
+57:51.280 --> 57:53.800
+ I'm not making a claim about simulators.
+
+57:53.800 --> 57:57.120
+ I'm making a claim about the spec division
+
+57:57.120 --> 57:58.800
+ between perception and planning.
+
+57:58.800 --> 57:59.640
+ And planning.
+
+57:59.640 --> 58:00.840
+ Even in your system.
+
+58:00.840 --> 58:01.800
+ Just in general.
+
+58:01.800 --> 58:03.360
+ Right, just in general.
+
+58:03.360 --> 58:05.680
+ If you're trying to build a car that drives,
+
+58:05.680 --> 58:07.280
+ if you're trying to hand code
+
+58:07.280 --> 58:08.760
+ the output of your perception system,
+
+58:08.760 --> 58:10.960
+ like saying, here's a list of all the cars in the scene.
+
+58:10.960 --> 58:11.920
+ Here's a list of all the people.
+
+58:11.920 --> 58:13.120
+ Here's a list of the occluded areas.
+
+58:13.120 --> 58:14.920
+ Here's a vector of drivable areas.
+
+58:14.920 --> 58:16.600
+ It's insufficient.
+
+58:16.600 --> 58:18.000
+ And if you start to believe that,
+
+58:18.000 --> 58:20.840
+ you realize that what Waymo and Cruz are doing is impossible.
+
+58:20.840 --> 58:24.320
+ Currently, what we're doing is the perception problem
+
+58:24.320 --> 58:28.200
+ is converting the scene into a chessboard.
+
+58:29.200 --> 58:31.720
+ And then you reason some basic reasoning
+
+58:31.720 --> 58:33.400
+ around that chessboard.
+
+58:33.400 --> 58:38.080
+ And you're saying that really there's a lot missing there.
+
+58:38.080 --> 58:40.240
+ First of all, why are we talking about this?
+
+58:40.240 --> 58:42.840
+ Because isn't this a full autonomy?
+
+58:42.840 --> 58:44.720
+ Is this something you think about?
+
+58:44.720 --> 58:47.680
+ Oh, I want to win self driving cars.
+
+58:47.680 --> 58:52.680
+ So your definition of win includes the full five.
+
+58:53.680 --> 58:55.800
+ I don't think level four is a real thing.
+
+58:55.800 --> 58:59.720
+ I want to build the AlphaGo of driving.
+
+58:59.720 --> 59:04.720
+ So AlphaGo is really end to end.
+
+59:06.160 --> 59:07.000
+ Yeah.
+
+59:07.000 --> 59:09.840
+ Is, yeah, it's end to end.
+
+59:09.840 --> 59:12.480
+ And do you think this whole problem,
+
+59:12.480 --> 59:14.680
+ is that also kind of what you're getting at
+
+59:14.680 --> 59:16.640
+ with the perception and the planning?
+
+59:16.640 --> 59:19.440
+ Is that this whole problem, the right way to do it,
+
+59:19.440 --> 59:21.600
+ is really to learn the entire thing?
+
+59:21.600 --> 59:23.680
+ I'll argue that not only is it the right way,
+
+59:23.680 --> 59:27.640
+ it's the only way that's going to exceed human performance.
+
+59:27.640 --> 59:29.960
+ Well, it's certainly true for Go.
+
+59:29.960 --> 59:31.520
+ Everyone who tried to hand code Go things
+
+59:31.520 --> 59:33.440
+ built human inferior things.
+
+59:33.440 --> 59:36.200
+ And then someone came along and wrote some 10,000 line thing
+
+59:36.200 --> 59:39.800
+ that doesn't know anything about Go that beat everybody.
+
+59:39.800 --> 59:41.080
+ It's 10,000 lines.
+
+59:41.080 --> 59:43.360
+ True, in that sense.
+
+59:43.360 --> 59:47.520
+ The open question then that maybe I can ask you
+
+59:47.520 --> 59:52.520
+ is driving is much harder than Go.
+
+59:53.440 --> 59:56.240
+ The open question is how much harder?
+
+59:56.240 --> 59:59.480
+ So how, because I think the Elon Musk approach here
+
+59:59.480 --> 1:00:01.600
+ with planning and perception is similar
+
+1:00:01.600 --> 1:00:02.960
+ to what you're describing,
+
+1:00:02.960 --> 1:00:07.960
+ which is really turning into not some kind of modular thing,
+
+1:00:08.280 --> 1:00:11.120
+ but really do formulate as a learning problem
+
+1:00:11.120 --> 1:00:13.360
+ and solve the learning problem with scale.
+
+1:00:13.360 --> 1:00:17.120
+ So how many years, put one,
+
+1:00:17.120 --> 1:00:18.880
+ how many years would it take to solve this problem
+
+1:00:18.880 --> 1:00:21.680
+ or just how hard is this freaking problem?
+
+1:00:21.680 --> 1:00:24.560
+ Well, the cool thing is,
+
+1:00:24.560 --> 1:00:27.800
+ I think there's a lot of value
+
+1:00:27.800 --> 1:00:29.840
+ that we can deliver along the way.
+
+1:00:30.840 --> 1:00:35.840
+ I think that you can build lame keeping assist
+
+1:00:36.600 --> 1:00:41.440
+ actually plus adaptive cruise control plus, okay,
+
+1:00:41.440 --> 1:00:46.000
+ looking at ways extends to like all of driving.
+
+1:00:46.000 --> 1:00:47.920
+ Yeah, most of driving, right?
+
+1:00:47.920 --> 1:00:49.760
+ Oh, your adaptive cruise control treats red lights
+
+1:00:49.760 --> 1:00:51.200
+ like cars, okay.
+
+1:00:51.200 --> 1:00:53.480
+ So let's jump around with you mentioned
+
+1:00:53.480 --> 1:00:55.760
+ that you didn't like navigate an autopilot.
+
+1:00:55.760 --> 1:00:57.760
+ What advice, how would you make it better?
+
+1:00:57.760 --> 1:01:00.560
+ Do you think as a feature that if it's done really well,
+
+1:01:00.560 --> 1:01:02.360
+ it's a good feature?
+
+1:01:02.360 --> 1:01:07.360
+ I think that it's too reliant on like hand coded hacks
+
+1:01:07.520 --> 1:01:10.400
+ for like, how does navigate an autopilot do a lane change?
+
+1:01:10.400 --> 1:01:13.400
+ It actually does the same lane change every time
+
+1:01:13.400 --> 1:01:14.320
+ and it feels mechanical.
+
+1:01:14.320 --> 1:01:15.920
+ Humans do different lane changes.
+
+1:01:15.920 --> 1:01:17.360
+ Humans, sometimes we'll do a slow one,
+
+1:01:17.360 --> 1:01:18.920
+ sometimes do a fast one.
+
+1:01:18.920 --> 1:01:20.880
+ Navigate an autopilot at least every time I use it
+
+1:01:20.880 --> 1:01:23.040
+ is it the identical lane change?
+
+1:01:23.040 --> 1:01:24.280
+ How do you learn?
+
+1:01:24.280 --> 1:01:26.800
+ I mean, this is a fundamental thing actually
+
+1:01:26.800 --> 1:01:30.400
+ is the breaking and accelerating,
+
+1:01:30.400 --> 1:01:33.960
+ something that still, Tesla probably does it better
+
+1:01:33.960 --> 1:01:36.800
+ than most cars, but it still doesn't do a great job
+
+1:01:36.800 --> 1:01:39.960
+ of creating a comfortable natural experience
+
+1:01:39.960 --> 1:01:42.680
+ and navigate an autopilot is just lane changes
+
+1:01:42.680 --> 1:01:44.120
+ and extension of that.
+
+1:01:44.120 --> 1:01:49.120
+ So how do you learn to do natural lane change?
+
+1:01:49.120 --> 1:01:52.920
+ So we have it and I can talk about how it works.
+
+1:01:52.920 --> 1:01:57.920
+ So I feel that we have the solution for lateral
+
+1:01:58.720 --> 1:02:00.640
+ but we don't yet have the solution for longitudinal.
+
+1:02:00.640 --> 1:02:03.360
+ There's a few reasons longitudinal is harder than lateral.
+
+1:02:03.360 --> 1:02:06.920
+ The lane change component, the way that we train on it
+
+1:02:06.920 --> 1:02:10.840
+ very simply is like our model has an input
+
+1:02:10.840 --> 1:02:14.040
+ for whether it's doing a lane change or not.
+
+1:02:14.040 --> 1:02:16.360
+ And then when we train the end to end model,
+
+1:02:16.360 --> 1:02:19.560
+ we hand label all the lane changes because you have to.
+
+1:02:19.560 --> 1:02:22.440
+ I've struggled a long time about not wanting to do that
+
+1:02:22.440 --> 1:02:24.280
+ but I think you have to.
+
+1:02:24.280 --> 1:02:25.320
+ Or the training data.
+
+1:02:25.320 --> 1:02:26.520
+ For the training data, right?
+
+1:02:26.520 --> 1:02:28.280
+ We actually have an automatic ground truth
+
+1:02:28.280 --> 1:02:30.600
+ or which automatically labels all the lane changes.
+
+1:02:30.600 --> 1:02:31.680
+ Was that possible?
+
+1:02:31.680 --> 1:02:32.720
+ To automatically label lane changes?
+
+1:02:32.720 --> 1:02:33.560
+ Yeah.
+
+1:02:33.560 --> 1:02:34.800
+ And detect the lane I see when it crosses it, right?
+
+1:02:34.800 --> 1:02:36.680
+ And I don't have to get that high percent accuracy
+
+1:02:36.680 --> 1:02:38.080
+ but it's like 95 good enough.
+
+1:02:38.080 --> 1:02:38.960
+ Okay.
+
+1:02:38.960 --> 1:02:43.200
+ Now I set the bit when it's doing the lane change
+
+1:02:43.200 --> 1:02:44.840
+ in the end to end learning.
+
+1:02:44.840 --> 1:02:47.920
+ And then I set it to zero when it's not doing a lane change.
+
+1:02:47.920 --> 1:02:49.720
+ So now if I want us to do a lane change a test time,
+
+1:02:49.720 --> 1:02:52.360
+ I just put the bit to a one and it'll do a lane change.
+
+1:02:52.360 --> 1:02:54.640
+ Yeah, but so if you look at the space of lane change,
+
+1:02:54.640 --> 1:02:57.320
+ you know some percentage, not a hundred percent,
+
+1:02:57.320 --> 1:03:01.120
+ that we make as humans is not a pleasant experience
+
+1:03:01.120 --> 1:03:02.800
+ because we messed some part of it up.
+
+1:03:02.800 --> 1:03:04.320
+ It's nerve wracking to change.
+
+1:03:04.320 --> 1:03:05.760
+ If you look, you have to see,
+
+1:03:05.760 --> 1:03:06.920
+ it has to accelerate.
+
+1:03:06.920 --> 1:03:09.920
+ How do we label the ones that are natural and feel good?
+
+1:03:09.920 --> 1:03:11.560
+ You know, that's the,
+
+1:03:11.560 --> 1:03:13.360
+ because that's your ultimate criticism,
+
+1:03:13.360 --> 1:03:17.000
+ the current navigate and autopilot just doesn't feel good.
+
+1:03:17.000 --> 1:03:18.520
+ Well, the current navigate and autopilot
+
+1:03:18.520 --> 1:03:21.720
+ is a hand coded policy written by an engineer in a room
+
+1:03:21.720 --> 1:03:25.080
+ who probably went out and tested it a few times on the 280.
+
+1:03:25.080 --> 1:03:28.560
+ Probably a more, a better version of that.
+
+1:03:28.560 --> 1:03:29.400
+ But yes.
+
+1:03:29.400 --> 1:03:30.560
+ That's how we would have written it.
+
+1:03:30.560 --> 1:03:31.400
+ Yeah.
+
+1:03:31.400 --> 1:03:33.480
+ Maybe Tesla did a Tesla, they tested it in.
+
+1:03:33.480 --> 1:03:34.920
+ That might have been two engineers.
+
+1:03:34.920 --> 1:03:35.760
+ Two engineers.
+
+1:03:35.760 --> 1:03:37.400
+ Yeah.
+
+1:03:37.400 --> 1:03:40.120
+ No, but so if you learn the lane change,
+
+1:03:40.120 --> 1:03:42.480
+ if you learn how to do a lane change from data,
+
+1:03:42.480 --> 1:03:44.680
+ just like you have a label that says lane change
+
+1:03:44.680 --> 1:03:48.040
+ and then you put it in when you want it to do the lane change,
+
+1:03:48.040 --> 1:03:49.640
+ it'll automatically do the lane change
+
+1:03:49.640 --> 1:03:51.600
+ that's appropriate for the situation.
+
+1:03:51.600 --> 1:03:54.720
+ Now, to get at the problem of some humans
+
+1:03:54.720 --> 1:03:55.960
+ do bad lane changes,
+
+1:03:57.400 --> 1:03:59.920
+ we haven't worked too much on this problem yet.
+
+1:03:59.920 --> 1:04:03.120
+ It's not that much of a problem in practice.
+
+1:04:03.120 --> 1:04:06.160
+ My theory is that all good drivers are good in the same way
+
+1:04:06.160 --> 1:04:08.440
+ and all bad drivers are bad in different ways.
+
+1:04:09.360 --> 1:04:11.320
+ And we've seen some data to back this up.
+
+1:04:11.320 --> 1:04:12.400
+ Well, beautifully put.
+
+1:04:12.400 --> 1:04:16.560
+ So you just basically, if that's true hypothesis,
+
+1:04:16.560 --> 1:04:19.920
+ then your task is to discover the good drivers.
+
+1:04:19.920 --> 1:04:21.800
+ The good drivers stand out
+
+1:04:21.800 --> 1:04:23.360
+ because they're in one cluster
+
+1:04:23.360 --> 1:04:25.200
+ and the bad drivers are scattered all over the place
+
+1:04:25.200 --> 1:04:27.240
+ and your net learns the cluster.
+
+1:04:27.240 --> 1:04:28.080
+ Yeah.
+
+1:04:28.080 --> 1:04:30.800
+ So you just learn from the good drivers
+
+1:04:30.800 --> 1:04:32.200
+ and they're easy to cluster.
+
+1:04:33.200 --> 1:04:34.240
+ In fact, we learned from all of them
+
+1:04:34.240 --> 1:04:35.840
+ and the net automatically learns the policy
+
+1:04:35.840 --> 1:04:36.920
+ that's like the majority.
+
+1:04:36.920 --> 1:04:38.440
+ But we'll eventually probably have to build some out.
+
+1:04:38.440 --> 1:04:41.560
+ So if that theory is true, I hope it's true
+
+1:04:41.560 --> 1:04:46.440
+ because the counter theory is there is many clusters,
+
+1:04:49.480 --> 1:04:53.680
+ maybe arbitrarily many clusters of good drivers.
+
+1:04:53.680 --> 1:04:55.840
+ Because if there's one cluster of good drivers,
+
+1:04:55.840 --> 1:04:57.600
+ you can at least discover a set of policies.
+
+1:04:57.600 --> 1:04:59.000
+ You can learn a set of policies
+
+1:04:59.000 --> 1:05:00.640
+ which would be good universally.
+
+1:05:00.640 --> 1:05:01.640
+ Yeah.
+
+1:05:01.640 --> 1:05:04.560
+ That would be nice if it's true.
+
+1:05:04.560 --> 1:05:06.560
+ And you're saying that there is some evidence that...
+
+1:05:06.560 --> 1:05:09.720
+ Let's say lane changes can be clustered into four clusters.
+
+1:05:09.720 --> 1:05:10.560
+ Right.
+
+1:05:10.560 --> 1:05:12.040
+ There's a finite level of...
+
+1:05:12.040 --> 1:05:15.280
+ I would argue that all four of those are good clusters.
+
+1:05:15.280 --> 1:05:18.360
+ All the things that are random are noise and probably bad.
+
+1:05:18.360 --> 1:05:20.360
+ And which one of the four you pick?
+
+1:05:20.360 --> 1:05:21.920
+ Or maybe it's 10 or maybe it's 20.
+
+1:05:21.920 --> 1:05:22.760
+ You can learn that.
+
+1:05:22.760 --> 1:05:23.800
+ It's context dependent.
+
+1:05:23.800 --> 1:05:25.040
+ It depends on the scene.
+
+1:05:26.760 --> 1:05:30.440
+ And the hope is it's not too dependent on the driver.
+
+1:05:31.400 --> 1:05:34.240
+ Yeah, the hope is that it all washes out.
+
+1:05:34.240 --> 1:05:36.960
+ The hope is that the distribution is not bimodal.
+
+1:05:36.960 --> 1:05:39.080
+ The hope is that it's a nice Gaussian.
+
+1:05:39.080 --> 1:05:41.640
+ So what advice would you give to Tesla?
+
+1:05:41.640 --> 1:05:45.000
+ How to fix, how to improve, navigate an autopilot?
+
+1:05:45.000 --> 1:05:48.240
+ That's the lessons that you've learned from Kamii.
+
+1:05:48.240 --> 1:05:50.560
+ The only real advice I would give to Tesla
+
+1:05:50.560 --> 1:05:52.920
+ is please put driver monitoring in your cars.
+
+1:05:53.920 --> 1:05:55.160
+ With respect to improving it.
+
+1:05:55.160 --> 1:05:56.000
+ You can't do that anymore.
+
+1:05:56.000 --> 1:05:57.280
+ I started to interrupt.
+
+1:05:57.280 --> 1:06:01.760
+ But there's a practical nature of many of hundreds of thousands
+
+1:06:01.760 --> 1:06:05.760
+ of cars being produced that don't have a good driver facing camera.
+
+1:06:05.760 --> 1:06:07.520
+ The Model 3 has a selfie cam.
+
+1:06:07.520 --> 1:06:08.680
+ Is it not good enough?
+
+1:06:08.680 --> 1:06:10.800
+ Did they not have put IR LEDs for night?
+
+1:06:10.800 --> 1:06:11.640
+ That's a good question.
+
+1:06:11.640 --> 1:06:13.360
+ But I do know that it's fish eye
+
+1:06:13.360 --> 1:06:15.800
+ and it's relatively low resolution.
+
+1:06:15.800 --> 1:06:16.760
+ So it's really not designed.
+
+1:06:16.760 --> 1:06:18.760
+ It wasn't designed for driver monitoring.
+
+1:06:18.760 --> 1:06:21.760
+ You can hope that you can kind of scrape up
+
+1:06:21.760 --> 1:06:24.400
+ and have something from it.
+
+1:06:24.400 --> 1:06:27.520
+ But why didn't they put it in today?
+
+1:06:27.520 --> 1:06:28.280
+ Put it in today.
+
+1:06:28.280 --> 1:06:29.520
+ Put it in today.
+
+1:06:29.520 --> 1:06:31.520
+ Every time I've heard Carpathian talk about the problem
+
+1:06:31.520 --> 1:06:33.240
+ and talking about like software 2.0
+
+1:06:33.240 --> 1:06:35.240
+ and how the machine learning is gobbling up everything,
+
+1:06:35.240 --> 1:06:37.440
+ I think this is absolutely the right strategy.
+
+1:06:37.440 --> 1:06:40.160
+ I think that he didn't write and navigate on autopilot.
+
+1:06:40.160 --> 1:06:43.240
+ I think somebody else did and kind of hacked it on top of that stuff.
+
+1:06:43.240 --> 1:06:45.680
+ I think when Carpathian says, wait a second,
+
+1:06:45.680 --> 1:06:47.440
+ why did we hand code this lane change policy
+
+1:06:47.440 --> 1:06:48.360
+ with all these magic numbers?
+
+1:06:48.360 --> 1:06:49.360
+ We're going to learn it from data.
+
+1:06:49.360 --> 1:06:49.840
+ They'll fix it.
+
+1:06:49.840 --> 1:06:51.040
+ They already know what to do there.
+
+1:06:51.040 --> 1:06:54.360
+ Well, that's Andre's job is to turn everything
+
+1:06:54.360 --> 1:06:57.480
+ into a learning problem and collect a huge amount of data.
+
+1:06:57.480 --> 1:07:01.120
+ The reality is, though, not every problem
+
+1:07:01.120 --> 1:07:04.080
+ can be turned into a learning problem in the short term.
+
+1:07:04.080 --> 1:07:07.280
+ In the end, everything will be a learning problem.
+
+1:07:07.280 --> 1:07:12.880
+ The reality is, like if you want to build L5 vehicles today,
+
+1:07:12.880 --> 1:07:15.600
+ it will likely involve no learning.
+
+1:07:15.600 --> 1:07:20.320
+ And that's the reality is, so at which point does learning start?
+
+1:07:20.320 --> 1:07:23.480
+ It's the crutch statement that LiDAR is a crutch.
+
+1:07:23.480 --> 1:07:27.240
+ Which point will learning get up to part of human performance?
+
+1:07:27.240 --> 1:07:31.960
+ It's over human performance on ImageNet, classification,
+
+1:07:31.960 --> 1:07:34.000
+ on driving, it's a question still.
+
+1:07:34.000 --> 1:07:35.760
+ It is a question.
+
+1:07:35.760 --> 1:07:39.160
+ I'll say this, I'm here to play for 10 years.
+
+1:07:39.160 --> 1:07:40.280
+ I'm not here to try to.
+
+1:07:40.280 --> 1:07:42.960
+ I'm here to play for 10 years and make money along the way.
+
+1:07:42.960 --> 1:07:45.040
+ I'm not here to try to promise people
+
+1:07:45.040 --> 1:07:47.600
+ that I'm going to have my L5 taxi network up and working
+
+1:07:47.600 --> 1:07:48.200
+ in two years.
+
+1:07:48.200 --> 1:07:49.400
+ Do you think that was a mistake?
+
+1:07:49.400 --> 1:07:50.520
+ Yes.
+
+1:07:50.520 --> 1:07:53.160
+ What do you think was the motivation behind saying
+
+1:07:53.160 --> 1:07:56.640
+ that other companies are also promising L5 vehicles
+
+1:07:56.640 --> 1:08:01.880
+ with their different approaches in 2020, 2021, 2022?
+
+1:08:01.880 --> 1:08:05.720
+ If anybody would like to bet me that those things do not pan out,
+
+1:08:05.720 --> 1:08:07.000
+ I will bet you.
+
+1:08:07.000 --> 1:08:10.800
+ Even money, even money, I'll bet you as much as you want.
+
+1:08:10.800 --> 1:08:13.600
+ So are you worried about what's going to happen?
+
+1:08:13.600 --> 1:08:16.040
+ Because you're not in full agreement on that.
+
+1:08:16.040 --> 1:08:19.160
+ What's going to happen when 2022, 2021 come around
+
+1:08:19.160 --> 1:08:22.800
+ and nobody has fleets of autonomous vehicles?
+
+1:08:22.800 --> 1:08:25.000
+ Well, you can look at the history.
+
+1:08:25.000 --> 1:08:26.880
+ If you go back five years ago, they
+
+1:08:26.880 --> 1:08:29.880
+ were all promised by 2018 and 2017.
+
+1:08:29.880 --> 1:08:32.200
+ But they weren't that strong of promises.
+
+1:08:32.200 --> 1:08:36.240
+ I mean, Ford really declared.
+
+1:08:36.240 --> 1:08:40.560
+ I think not many have declared as definitively
+
+1:08:40.560 --> 1:08:42.600
+ as they have now these dates.
+
+1:08:42.600 --> 1:08:43.320
+ Well, OK.
+
+1:08:43.320 --> 1:08:45.040
+ So let's separate L4 and L5.
+
+1:08:45.040 --> 1:08:46.800
+ Do I think that it's possible for Waymo
+
+1:08:46.800 --> 1:08:50.960
+ to continue to hack on their system
+
+1:08:50.960 --> 1:08:53.400
+ until it gets to level four in Chandler, Arizona?
+
+1:08:53.400 --> 1:08:55.040
+ Yes.
+
+1:08:55.040 --> 1:08:56.800
+ No safety driver?
+
+1:08:56.800 --> 1:08:57.600
+ Chandler, Arizona?
+
+1:08:57.600 --> 1:08:59.600
+ Yeah.
+
+1:08:59.600 --> 1:09:02.440
+ By which year are we talking about?
+
+1:09:02.440 --> 1:09:06.120
+ Oh, I even think that's possible by like 2020, 2021.
+
+1:09:06.120 --> 1:09:09.480
+ But level four, Chandler, Arizona, not level five,
+
+1:09:09.480 --> 1:09:11.480
+ New York City.
+
+1:09:11.480 --> 1:09:15.920
+ Level four, meaning some very defined streets.
+
+1:09:15.920 --> 1:09:17.400
+ It works out really well.
+
+1:09:17.400 --> 1:09:18.280
+ Very defined streets.
+
+1:09:18.280 --> 1:09:20.680
+ And then practically, these streets are pretty empty.
+
+1:09:20.680 --> 1:09:24.680
+ If most of the streets are covered in Waymos,
+
+1:09:24.680 --> 1:09:28.360
+ Waymo can kind of change the definition of what driving is.
+
+1:09:28.360 --> 1:09:28.920
+ Right?
+
+1:09:28.920 --> 1:09:31.720
+ If your self driving network is the majority
+
+1:09:31.720 --> 1:09:34.120
+ of cars in an area, they only need
+
+1:09:34.120 --> 1:09:35.720
+ to be safe with respect to each other,
+
+1:09:35.720 --> 1:09:38.640
+ and all the humans will need to learn to adapt to them.
+
+1:09:38.640 --> 1:09:41.120
+ Now go drive in downtown New York.
+
+1:09:41.120 --> 1:09:42.200
+ Oh, yeah, that's.
+
+1:09:42.200 --> 1:09:43.440
+ I mean, already.
+
+1:09:43.440 --> 1:09:46.040
+ You can talk about autonomy and like on farms,
+
+1:09:46.040 --> 1:09:48.520
+ it already works great, because you can really just
+
+1:09:48.520 --> 1:09:51.320
+ follow the GPS line.
+
+1:09:51.320 --> 1:09:56.800
+ So what does success look like for Kama AI?
+
+1:09:56.800 --> 1:09:58.200
+ What are the milestones like where
+
+1:09:58.200 --> 1:09:59.800
+ you can sit back with some champagne
+
+1:09:59.800 --> 1:10:04.120
+ and say, we did it, boys and girls?
+
+1:10:04.120 --> 1:10:06.320
+ Well, it's never over.
+
+1:10:06.320 --> 1:10:07.800
+ Yeah, but don't be so.
+
+1:10:07.800 --> 1:10:10.400
+ You must drink champagne every time you celebrate.
+
+1:10:10.400 --> 1:10:11.440
+ So what is good?
+
+1:10:11.440 --> 1:10:13.160
+ What are some wins?
+
+1:10:13.160 --> 1:10:19.480
+ A big milestone that we're hoping for by mid next year
+
+1:10:19.480 --> 1:10:20.680
+ is profitability of the company.
+
+1:10:20.680 --> 1:10:28.560
+ And we're going to have to revisit the idea of selling
+
+1:10:28.560 --> 1:10:30.280
+ a consumer product.
+
+1:10:30.280 --> 1:10:32.720
+ But it's not going to be like the Kama One.
+
+1:10:32.720 --> 1:10:36.240
+ When we do it, it's going to be perfect.
+
+1:10:36.240 --> 1:10:39.600
+ OpenPilot has gotten so much better in the last two years.
+
+1:10:39.600 --> 1:10:41.680
+ We're going to have a few features.
+
+1:10:41.680 --> 1:10:43.760
+ We're going to have 100% driver monitoring.
+
+1:10:43.760 --> 1:10:46.720
+ We're going to disable no safety features in the car.
+
+1:10:46.720 --> 1:10:48.760
+ Actually, I think it'd be really cool what we're doing right
+
+1:10:48.760 --> 1:10:51.600
+ now, our project this week is we're analyzing the data set
+
+1:10:51.600 --> 1:10:53.240
+ and looking for all the AEB triggers
+
+1:10:53.240 --> 1:10:55.640
+ from the manufacturer systems.
+
+1:10:55.640 --> 1:10:59.440
+ We have better data set on that than the manufacturers.
+
+1:10:59.440 --> 1:11:02.960
+ How much does Toyota have 10 million miles of real world
+
+1:11:02.960 --> 1:11:05.360
+ driving to know how many times they're AEB triggered?
+
+1:11:05.360 --> 1:11:10.880
+ So let me give you, because you asked, financial advice.
+
+1:11:10.880 --> 1:11:12.440
+ Because I work with a lot of automakers
+
+1:11:12.440 --> 1:11:15.840
+ and one possible source of money for you,
+
+1:11:15.840 --> 1:11:21.400
+ which I'll be excited to see you take on, is basically
+
+1:11:21.400 --> 1:11:29.120
+ selling the data, which is something that most people,
+
+1:11:29.120 --> 1:11:31.800
+ and not selling in a way where here, here at Automaker,
+
+1:11:31.800 --> 1:11:33.000
+ but creating.
+
+1:11:33.000 --> 1:11:35.480
+ We've done this actually at MIT, not for money purposes,
+
+1:11:35.480 --> 1:11:37.760
+ but you could do it for significant money purposes
+
+1:11:37.760 --> 1:11:39.440
+ and make the world a better place
+
+1:11:39.440 --> 1:11:44.240
+ by creating a consortia where automakers would pay in
+
+1:11:44.240 --> 1:11:46.960
+ and then they get to have free access to the data.
+
+1:11:46.960 --> 1:11:52.400
+ And I think a lot of people are really hungry for that
+
+1:11:52.400 --> 1:11:54.200
+ and would pay significant amount of money for it.
+
+1:11:54.200 --> 1:11:55.400
+ Here's the problem with that.
+
+1:11:55.400 --> 1:11:56.840
+ I like this idea all in theory.
+
+1:11:56.840 --> 1:11:59.640
+ It'd be very easy for me to give them access to my servers.
+
+1:11:59.640 --> 1:12:02.280
+ And we already have all open source tools to access this data.
+
+1:12:02.280 --> 1:12:03.400
+ It's in a great format.
+
+1:12:03.400 --> 1:12:05.560
+ We have a great pipeline.
+
+1:12:05.560 --> 1:12:07.120
+ But they're going to put me in the room
+
+1:12:07.120 --> 1:12:10.120
+ with some business development guy.
+
+1:12:10.120 --> 1:12:12.400
+ And I'm going to have to talk to this guy.
+
+1:12:12.400 --> 1:12:15.040
+ And he's not going to know most of the words I'm saying.
+
+1:12:15.040 --> 1:12:17.280
+ I'm not willing to tolerate that.
+
+1:12:17.280 --> 1:12:18.840
+ OK, Mick Jagger.
+
+1:12:18.840 --> 1:12:19.800
+ No, no, no, no.
+
+1:12:19.800 --> 1:12:21.040
+ But I think I agree with you.
+
+1:12:21.040 --> 1:12:21.720
+ I'm the same way.
+
+1:12:21.720 --> 1:12:22.960
+ But you just tell them the terms
+
+1:12:22.960 --> 1:12:24.640
+ and there's no discussion needed.
+
+1:12:24.640 --> 1:12:30.480
+ If I could just tell them the terms, then like, all right.
+
+1:12:30.480 --> 1:12:31.600
+ Who wants access to my data?
+
+1:12:31.600 --> 1:12:36.680
+ I will sell it to you for, let's say,
+
+1:12:36.680 --> 1:12:37.640
+ you want a subscription?
+
+1:12:37.640 --> 1:12:40.680
+ I'll sell you for 100k a month.
+
+1:12:40.680 --> 1:12:41.200
+ Anyone?
+
+1:12:41.200 --> 1:12:42.000
+ 100k a month?
+
+1:12:42.000 --> 1:12:43.040
+ 100k a month?
+
+1:12:43.040 --> 1:12:45.080
+ I'll give you access to the data subscription?
+
+1:12:45.080 --> 1:12:45.680
+ Yeah.
+
+1:12:45.680 --> 1:12:46.680
+ Yeah, I think that's kind of fair.
+
+1:12:46.680 --> 1:12:48.440
+ Came up with that number off the top of my head.
+
+1:12:48.440 --> 1:12:50.840
+ If somebody sends me like a three line email where it's like,
+
+1:12:50.840 --> 1:12:54.000
+ we would like to pay 100k a month to get access to your data.
+
+1:12:54.000 --> 1:12:56.160
+ We would agree to like reasonable privacy terms
+
+1:12:56.160 --> 1:12:58.360
+ of the people who are in the data set.
+
+1:12:58.360 --> 1:12:59.520
+ I would be happy to do it.
+
+1:12:59.520 --> 1:13:01.200
+ But that's not going to be the email.
+
+1:13:01.200 --> 1:13:03.120
+ The email is going to be, hey, do you
+
+1:13:03.120 --> 1:13:05.560
+ have some time in the next month where we can sit down
+
+1:13:05.560 --> 1:13:07.000
+ and we can, I don't have time for that.
+
+1:13:07.000 --> 1:13:08.360
+ We're moving too fast.
+
+1:13:08.360 --> 1:13:10.040
+ You could politely respond to that email,
+
+1:13:10.040 --> 1:13:13.240
+ but not saying I don't have any time for your bullshit.
+
+1:13:13.240 --> 1:13:15.440
+ You say, oh, well, unfortunately, these are the terms.
+
+1:13:15.440 --> 1:13:19.280
+ And so this is what we try to, we brought the cost down
+
+1:13:19.280 --> 1:13:22.320
+ for you in order to minimize the friction, the communication.
+
+1:13:22.320 --> 1:13:22.920
+ Yeah, absolutely.
+
+1:13:22.920 --> 1:13:26.720
+ Here's the whatever it is, $1, $2 million a year.
+
+1:13:26.720 --> 1:13:28.880
+ And you have access.
+
+1:13:28.880 --> 1:13:31.440
+ And it's not like I get that email from like,
+
+1:13:31.440 --> 1:13:32.720
+ but OK, am I going to reach out?
+
+1:13:32.720 --> 1:13:34.200
+ Am I going to hire a business development person
+
+1:13:34.200 --> 1:13:35.840
+ who's going to reach out to the automakers?
+
+1:13:35.840 --> 1:13:36.480
+ No way.
+
+1:13:36.480 --> 1:13:36.880
+ Yeah.
+
+1:13:36.880 --> 1:13:37.840
+ OK, I got you.
+
+1:13:37.840 --> 1:13:38.520
+ I admire.
+
+1:13:38.520 --> 1:13:39.680
+ If they reached into me, I'm not
+
+1:13:39.680 --> 1:13:40.600
+ going to ignore the email.
+
+1:13:40.600 --> 1:13:42.160
+ I'll come back with something like, yeah,
+
+1:13:42.160 --> 1:13:44.560
+ if you're willing to pay $100,000 for access to the data,
+
+1:13:44.560 --> 1:13:46.080
+ I'm happy to set that up.
+
+1:13:46.080 --> 1:13:48.200
+ That's worth my engineering time.
+
+1:13:48.200 --> 1:13:49.520
+ That's actually quite insightful of you.
+
+1:13:49.520 --> 1:13:50.440
+ You're right.
+
+1:13:50.440 --> 1:13:52.480
+ Probably because many of the automakers
+
+1:13:52.480 --> 1:13:54.480
+ are quite a bit old school, there
+
+1:13:54.480 --> 1:13:56.200
+ will be a need to reach out.
+
+1:13:56.200 --> 1:13:58.440
+ And they want it, but there will need
+
+1:13:58.440 --> 1:13:59.800
+ to be some communication.
+
+1:13:59.800 --> 1:14:00.160
+ You're right.
+
+1:14:00.160 --> 1:14:06.760
+ Mobileye circa 2015 had the lowest R&D spend of any chipmaker.
+
+1:14:06.760 --> 1:14:10.640
+ Like per, and you look at all the people who work for them,
+
+1:14:10.640 --> 1:14:12.120
+ and it's all business development people
+
+1:14:12.120 --> 1:14:15.320
+ because the car companies are impossible to work with.
+
+1:14:15.320 --> 1:14:17.880
+ Yeah, so you have no patience for that,
+
+1:14:17.880 --> 1:14:20.040
+ and you're a legit Android, huh?
+
+1:14:20.040 --> 1:14:21.440
+ I have something to do, right?
+
+1:14:21.440 --> 1:14:24.040
+ Like, it's not like I don't mean to be a dick and say,
+
+1:14:24.040 --> 1:14:25.920
+ I don't have patience for that, but it's like,
+
+1:14:25.920 --> 1:14:29.160
+ that stuff doesn't help us with our goal of winning
+
+1:14:29.160 --> 1:14:30.560
+ self driving cars.
+
+1:14:30.560 --> 1:14:33.800
+ If I want money in the short term,
+
+1:14:33.800 --> 1:14:38.040
+ if I showed off the actual learning tech that we have,
+
+1:14:38.040 --> 1:14:40.160
+ it's somewhat sad.
+
+1:14:40.160 --> 1:14:43.000
+ It's years and years ahead of everybody else's.
+
+1:14:43.000 --> 1:14:43.720
+ Maybe not Tesla's.
+
+1:14:43.720 --> 1:14:45.720
+ I think Tesla has similar stuff to us, actually.
+
+1:14:45.720 --> 1:14:47.640
+ I think Tesla has similar stuff, but when you compare it
+
+1:14:47.640 --> 1:14:50.920
+ to what the Toyota Research Institute has,
+
+1:14:50.920 --> 1:14:53.480
+ you're not even close to what we have.
+
+1:14:53.480 --> 1:14:55.840
+ No comments, but I also can't.
+
+1:14:55.840 --> 1:14:58.440
+ I have to take your comments.
+
+1:14:58.440 --> 1:15:01.960
+ I intuitively believe you, but I have
+
+1:15:01.960 --> 1:15:04.680
+ to take it with a grain of salt because,
+
+1:15:04.680 --> 1:15:07.440
+ I mean, you are an inspiration because you basically
+
+1:15:07.440 --> 1:15:10.000
+ don't care about a lot of things that other companies care
+
+1:15:10.000 --> 1:15:10.880
+ about.
+
+1:15:10.880 --> 1:15:16.600
+ You don't try to bullshit, in a sense, like make up stuff,
+
+1:15:16.600 --> 1:15:18.600
+ so to drive up valuation.
+
+1:15:18.600 --> 1:15:19.960
+ You're really very real, and you're
+
+1:15:19.960 --> 1:15:22.280
+ trying to solve the problem, and I admire that a lot.
+
+1:15:22.280 --> 1:15:26.520
+ What I don't necessarily fully can't trust you on about your
+
+1:15:26.520 --> 1:15:28.440
+ respect is how good it is, right?
+
+1:15:28.440 --> 1:15:33.320
+ I can only, but I also know how bad others are.
+
+1:15:33.320 --> 1:15:36.680
+ I'll say two things about, trust, but verify, right?
+
+1:15:36.680 --> 1:15:38.040
+ I'll say two things about that.
+
+1:15:38.040 --> 1:15:42.360
+ One is try, get in a 2020 Corolla,
+
+1:15:42.360 --> 1:15:46.680
+ and try OpenPilot 0.6 when it comes out next month.
+
+1:15:46.680 --> 1:15:48.400
+ I think already, you'll look at this,
+
+1:15:48.400 --> 1:15:51.400
+ and you'll be like, this is already really good.
+
+1:15:51.400 --> 1:15:54.240
+ And then, I could be doing that all with hand labelers
+
+1:15:54.240 --> 1:15:58.000
+ and all with the same approach that Mobileye uses.
+
+1:15:58.000 --> 1:16:00.040
+ When we release a model that no longer
+
+1:16:00.040 --> 1:16:05.000
+ has the lanes in it, that only outputs a path,
+
+1:16:05.000 --> 1:16:08.720
+ then think about how we did that machine learning,
+
+1:16:08.720 --> 1:16:10.080
+ and then right away, when you see,
+
+1:16:10.080 --> 1:16:11.240
+ and that's going to be an OpenPilot,
+
+1:16:11.240 --> 1:16:13.000
+ that's going to be an OpenPilot before 1.0,
+
+1:16:13.000 --> 1:16:14.400
+ when you see that model, you'll know
+
+1:16:14.400 --> 1:16:15.360
+ that everything I'm saying is true,
+
+1:16:15.360 --> 1:16:16.840
+ because how else did I get that model?
+
+1:16:16.840 --> 1:16:17.320
+ Good.
+
+1:16:17.320 --> 1:16:19.240
+ You know what I'm saying is true about the simulator.
+
+1:16:19.240 --> 1:16:20.600
+ Yeah, yeah, yeah, this is super exciting.
+
+1:16:20.600 --> 1:16:22.680
+ That's super exciting.
+
+1:16:22.680 --> 1:16:25.760
+ But I listened to your talk with Kyle,
+
+1:16:25.760 --> 1:16:30.480
+ and Kyle was originally building the aftermarket system,
+
+1:16:30.480 --> 1:16:34.920
+ and he gave up on it because of technical challenges,
+
+1:16:34.920 --> 1:16:37.360
+ because of the fact that he's going
+
+1:16:37.360 --> 1:16:39.160
+ to have to support 20 to 50 cars.
+
+1:16:39.160 --> 1:16:41.120
+ We support 45, because what is he
+
+1:16:41.120 --> 1:16:43.440
+ going to do when the manufacturer ABS system triggers?
+
+1:16:43.440 --> 1:16:45.480
+ We have alerts and warnings to deal with all of that
+
+1:16:45.480 --> 1:16:48.400
+ and all the cars, and how is he going to formally verify it?
+
+1:16:48.400 --> 1:16:49.800
+ Well, I got 10 million miles of data.
+
+1:16:49.800 --> 1:16:53.240
+ It's probably better verified than the spec.
+
+1:16:53.240 --> 1:16:57.720
+ Yeah, I'm glad you're here talking to me.
+
+1:16:57.720 --> 1:17:01.120
+ I'll remember this day, because it's interesting.
+
+1:17:01.120 --> 1:17:04.160
+ If you look at Kyle's from Cruise,
+
+1:17:04.160 --> 1:17:06.320
+ I'm sure they have a large number of business development
+
+1:17:06.320 --> 1:17:10.200
+ folks, and he's working with GM.
+
+1:17:10.200 --> 1:17:13.280
+ He could work with Argo AI, worked with Ford.
+
+1:17:13.280 --> 1:17:18.520
+ It's interesting, because chances that you fail businesswise,
+
+1:17:18.520 --> 1:17:21.120
+ like bankrupt, are pretty high.
+
+1:17:21.120 --> 1:17:23.880
+ And yet, it's the Android model,
+
+1:17:23.880 --> 1:17:26.440
+ is you're actually taking on the problem.
+
+1:17:26.440 --> 1:17:28.160
+ So that's really inspiring.
+
+1:17:28.160 --> 1:17:30.920
+ Well, I have a long term way for comedy to make money, too.
+
+1:17:30.920 --> 1:17:34.400
+ And one of the nice things when you really take on the problem,
+
+1:17:34.400 --> 1:17:36.760
+ which is my hope for autopilot, for example,
+
+1:17:36.760 --> 1:17:41.040
+ is things you don't expect, ways to make money,
+
+1:17:41.040 --> 1:17:44.160
+ or create value that you don't expect will pop up.
+
+1:17:44.160 --> 1:17:48.560
+ I've known how to do it since 2017 is the first time I said it.
+
+1:17:48.560 --> 1:17:50.440
+ Which part to know how to do which part?
+
+1:17:50.440 --> 1:17:52.520
+ Our long term plan is to be a car insurance company.
+
+1:17:52.520 --> 1:17:53.160
+ Insurance.
+
+1:17:53.160 --> 1:17:55.320
+ Yeah, I love it.
+
+1:17:55.320 --> 1:17:56.680
+ I make driving twice as safe.
+
+1:17:56.680 --> 1:17:57.680
+ Not only that, I have the best data
+
+1:17:57.680 --> 1:18:00.040
+ such to know who statistically is the safest drivers.
+
+1:18:00.040 --> 1:18:02.160
+ And oh, oh, we see you.
+
+1:18:02.160 --> 1:18:03.720
+ We see you driving unsafely.
+
+1:18:03.720 --> 1:18:05.360
+ We're not going to insure you.
+
+1:18:05.360 --> 1:18:08.960
+ And that causes a bifurcation in the market,
+
+1:18:08.960 --> 1:18:10.920
+ because the only people who can't get common insurance
+
+1:18:10.920 --> 1:18:12.760
+ or the bad drivers, Geico can insure them.
+
+1:18:12.760 --> 1:18:15.360
+ Their premiums are crazy high, our premiums are crazy low.
+
+1:18:15.360 --> 1:18:16.240
+ We win car insurance.
+
+1:18:16.240 --> 1:18:18.120
+ Take over that whole market.
+
+1:18:18.120 --> 1:18:21.560
+ OK, so if we win, if we win, but that's
+
+1:18:21.560 --> 1:18:23.800
+ I'm saying like how do you turn comma into a $10 billion
+
+1:18:23.800 --> 1:18:24.640
+ company is that.
+
+1:18:24.640 --> 1:18:25.600
+ That's right.
+
+1:18:25.600 --> 1:18:30.000
+ So you Elon Musk, who else?
+
+1:18:30.000 --> 1:18:32.720
+ Who else is thinking like this and working like this
+
+1:18:32.720 --> 1:18:33.160
+ in your view?
+
+1:18:33.160 --> 1:18:34.800
+ Who are the competitors?
+
+1:18:34.800 --> 1:18:36.160
+ Are there people seriously?
+
+1:18:36.160 --> 1:18:39.480
+ I don't think anyone that I'm aware of is seriously
+
+1:18:39.480 --> 1:18:45.280
+ taking on lane keeping, like to where it's a huge business that
+
+1:18:45.280 --> 1:18:51.400
+ turns eventually to full autonomy that then creates
+
+1:18:51.400 --> 1:18:53.440
+ other businesses on top of it and so on.
+
+1:18:53.440 --> 1:18:56.480
+ Thinks insurance, thinks all kinds of ideas like that.
+
+1:18:56.480 --> 1:19:00.480
+ Do you know anyone else thinking like this?
+
+1:19:00.480 --> 1:19:02.200
+ Not really.
+
+1:19:02.200 --> 1:19:02.960
+ That's interesting.
+
+1:19:02.960 --> 1:19:06.560
+ I mean, my sense is everybody turns to that in like four
+
+1:19:06.560 --> 1:19:07.800
+ or five years.
+
+1:19:07.800 --> 1:19:11.240
+ Like Ford, once the autonomy doesn't fall through.
+
+1:19:11.240 --> 1:19:12.600
+ But at this time.
+
+1:19:12.600 --> 1:19:14.120
+ Elon's the iOS.
+
+1:19:14.120 --> 1:19:16.720
+ By the way, he paved the way for all of us.
+
+1:19:16.720 --> 1:19:18.000
+ It's not iOS, true.
+
+1:19:18.000 --> 1:19:21.520
+ I would not be doing comma AI today if it was not
+
+1:19:21.520 --> 1:19:23.480
+ for those conversations with Elon.
+
+1:19:23.480 --> 1:19:26.840
+ And if it were not for him saying like,
+
+1:19:26.840 --> 1:19:28.600
+ I think he said like, well, obviously we're not
+
+1:19:28.600 --> 1:19:31.280
+ going to use LiDAR, we use cameras, humans use cameras.
+
+1:19:31.280 --> 1:19:32.600
+ So what do you think about that?
+
+1:19:32.600 --> 1:19:33.880
+ How important is LiDAR?
+
+1:19:33.880 --> 1:19:36.960
+ Everybody else's on L5 is using LiDAR.
+
+1:19:36.960 --> 1:19:39.160
+ What are your thoughts on his provocative statement
+
+1:19:39.160 --> 1:19:41.320
+ that LiDAR is a crutch?
+
+1:19:41.320 --> 1:19:43.520
+ See, sometimes they'll say dumb things like the driver
+
+1:19:43.520 --> 1:19:45.680
+ monitoring thing, but sometimes they'll say absolutely
+
+1:19:45.680 --> 1:19:48.400
+ completely 100% obviously true things.
+
+1:19:48.400 --> 1:19:50.840
+ Of course LiDAR is a crutch.
+
+1:19:50.840 --> 1:19:53.040
+ It's not even a good crutch.
+
+1:19:53.040 --> 1:19:54.200
+ You're not even using it.
+
+1:19:54.200 --> 1:19:56.920
+ They're using it for localization,
+
+1:19:56.920 --> 1:19:58.160
+ which isn't good in the first place.
+
+1:19:58.160 --> 1:20:00.480
+ If you have to localize your car to centimeters
+
+1:20:00.480 --> 1:20:04.280
+ in order to drive, that's not driving.
+
+1:20:04.280 --> 1:20:06.320
+ Currently not doing much machine learning.
+
+1:20:06.320 --> 1:20:09.280
+ I thought LiDAR data, meaning like to help you
+
+1:20:09.280 --> 1:20:12.840
+ in the task of general task of perception.
+
+1:20:12.840 --> 1:20:15.320
+ The main goal of those LiDARs on those cars
+
+1:20:15.320 --> 1:20:18.840
+ I think is actually localization more than perception,
+
+1:20:18.840 --> 1:20:20.080
+ or at least that's what they use them for.
+
+1:20:20.080 --> 1:20:20.920
+ Yeah, that's true.
+
+1:20:20.920 --> 1:20:22.480
+ If you want to localize to centimeters,
+
+1:20:22.480 --> 1:20:23.720
+ you can't use GPS.
+
+1:20:23.720 --> 1:20:25.120
+ The fancies GPS in the world can't do it,
+
+1:20:25.120 --> 1:20:26.960
+ especially if you're under tree cover and stuff.
+
+1:20:26.960 --> 1:20:28.480
+ LiDAR you can do this pretty easily.
+
+1:20:28.480 --> 1:20:30.240
+ So really they're not taking on,
+
+1:20:30.240 --> 1:20:33.200
+ I mean in some research they're using it for perception,
+
+1:20:33.200 --> 1:20:35.840
+ but and they're certainly not, which is sad,
+
+1:20:35.840 --> 1:20:38.680
+ they're not fusing it well with vision.
+
+1:20:38.680 --> 1:20:40.560
+ They do use it for perception.
+
+1:20:40.560 --> 1:20:42.400
+ I'm not saying they don't use it for perception,
+
+1:20:42.400 --> 1:20:45.480
+ but the thing that they have vision based
+
+1:20:45.480 --> 1:20:47.680
+ and radar based perception systems as well.
+
+1:20:47.680 --> 1:20:51.440
+ You could remove the LiDAR and keep around
+
+1:20:51.440 --> 1:20:54.040
+ a lot of the dynamic object perception.
+
+1:20:54.040 --> 1:20:56.320
+ You want to get centimeter accurate localization.
+
+1:20:56.320 --> 1:20:59.120
+ Good luck doing that with anything else.
+
+1:20:59.120 --> 1:21:02.880
+ So what should a cruise Waymo do?
+
+1:21:02.880 --> 1:21:05.360
+ Like what would be your advice to them now?
+
+1:21:06.400 --> 1:21:11.400
+ I mean Waymo is actually, they're serious.
+
+1:21:11.400 --> 1:21:13.120
+ Waymo out of the ball of them,
+
+1:21:13.120 --> 1:21:16.120
+ are quite serious about the long game.
+
+1:21:16.120 --> 1:21:20.680
+ If L5 is a lot, is requires 50 years,
+
+1:21:20.680 --> 1:21:24.000
+ I think Waymo will be the only one left standing at the end
+
+1:21:24.000 --> 1:21:26.560
+ with a given the financial backing that they have.
+
+1:21:26.560 --> 1:21:28.640
+ They're boo Google box.
+
+1:21:28.640 --> 1:21:31.040
+ I'll say nice things about both Waymo and cruise.
+
+1:21:32.320 --> 1:21:33.480
+ Let's do it.
+
+1:21:33.480 --> 1:21:34.320
+ Nice is good.
+
+1:21:35.720 --> 1:21:39.200
+ Waymo is by far the furthest along with technology.
+
+1:21:39.200 --> 1:21:41.160
+ Waymo has a three to five year lead
+
+1:21:41.160 --> 1:21:42.880
+ on all the competitors.
+
+1:21:43.960 --> 1:21:48.640
+ If the Waymo looking stack works,
+
+1:21:48.640 --> 1:21:49.720
+ maybe three year lead.
+
+1:21:49.720 --> 1:21:51.280
+ If the Waymo looking stack works,
+
+1:21:51.280 --> 1:21:52.800
+ they have a three year lead.
+
+1:21:52.800 --> 1:21:55.800
+ Now, I argue that Waymo has spent too much money
+
+1:21:55.800 --> 1:21:59.240
+ to recapitalize, to gain back their losses
+
+1:21:59.240 --> 1:22:00.160
+ in those three years.
+
+1:22:00.160 --> 1:22:03.600
+ Also self driving cars have no network effect like that.
+
+1:22:03.600 --> 1:22:04.800
+ Uber has a network effect.
+
+1:22:04.800 --> 1:22:07.120
+ You have a market, you have drivers and you have riders.
+
+1:22:07.120 --> 1:22:09.880
+ Self driving cars, you have capital and you have riders.
+
+1:22:09.880 --> 1:22:11.400
+ There's no network effect.
+
+1:22:11.400 --> 1:22:13.800
+ If I want to blanket a new city in self driving cars,
+
+1:22:13.800 --> 1:22:16.000
+ I buy the off the shelf Chinese knockoff self driving cars
+
+1:22:16.000 --> 1:22:17.160
+ and I buy enough of them in the city.
+
+1:22:17.160 --> 1:22:18.360
+ I can't do that with drivers.
+
+1:22:18.360 --> 1:22:20.840
+ And that's why Uber has a first mover advantage
+
+1:22:20.840 --> 1:22:22.640
+ that no self driving car company will.
+
+1:22:23.960 --> 1:22:26.520
+ Can you just a thing, let a little bit.
+
+1:22:26.520 --> 1:22:28.160
+ Uber, you're not talking about Uber,
+
+1:22:28.160 --> 1:22:29.240
+ the autonomous vehicle Uber.
+
+1:22:29.240 --> 1:22:30.960
+ You're talking about the Uber cars.
+
+1:22:30.960 --> 1:22:31.800
+ Yeah.
+
+1:22:31.800 --> 1:22:32.640
+ I'm Uber.
+
+1:22:32.640 --> 1:22:35.920
+ I open for business in Austin, Texas, let's say.
+
+1:22:35.920 --> 1:22:38.760
+ I need to attract both sides of the market.
+
+1:22:38.760 --> 1:22:41.200
+ I need to both get drivers on my platform
+
+1:22:41.200 --> 1:22:42.720
+ and riders on my platform.
+
+1:22:42.720 --> 1:22:45.320
+ And I need to keep them both sufficiently happy, right?
+
+1:22:45.320 --> 1:22:46.520
+ Riders aren't going to use it
+
+1:22:46.520 --> 1:22:48.960
+ if it takes more than five minutes for an Uber to show up.
+
+1:22:48.960 --> 1:22:50.120
+ Drivers aren't going to use it
+
+1:22:50.120 --> 1:22:52.120
+ if they have to sit around all day and there's no riders.
+
+1:22:52.120 --> 1:22:54.480
+ So you have to carefully balance a market.
+
+1:22:54.480 --> 1:22:56.240
+ And whenever you have to carefully balance a market,
+
+1:22:56.240 --> 1:22:58.280
+ there's a great first mover advantage
+
+1:22:58.280 --> 1:23:01.000
+ because there's a switching cost for everybody, right?
+
+1:23:01.000 --> 1:23:02.120
+ The drivers and the riders
+
+1:23:02.120 --> 1:23:04.080
+ would have to switch at the same time.
+
+1:23:04.080 --> 1:23:08.880
+ Let's even say that, let's say, Uber shows up.
+
+1:23:08.880 --> 1:23:13.880
+ And Uber somehow agrees to do things at a bigger,
+
+1:23:14.800 --> 1:23:17.440
+ we've done it more efficiently, right?
+
+1:23:17.440 --> 1:23:19.800
+ Uber only takes 5% of a car
+
+1:23:19.800 --> 1:23:21.600
+ instead of the 10% that Uber takes.
+
+1:23:21.600 --> 1:23:22.760
+ No one is going to switch
+
+1:23:22.760 --> 1:23:24.920
+ because the switching cost is higher than that 5%.
+
+1:23:24.920 --> 1:23:27.200
+ So you actually can, in markets like that,
+
+1:23:27.200 --> 1:23:28.520
+ you have a first mover advantage.
+
+1:23:28.520 --> 1:23:29.360
+ Yeah.
+
+1:23:30.160 --> 1:23:32.720
+ Autonomous vehicles of the level five variety
+
+1:23:32.720 --> 1:23:34.560
+ have no first mover advantage.
+
+1:23:34.560 --> 1:23:36.800
+ If the technology becomes commoditized,
+
+1:23:36.800 --> 1:23:39.520
+ say I want to go to a new city, look at the scooters.
+
+1:23:39.520 --> 1:23:41.480
+ It's going to look a lot more like scooters.
+
+1:23:41.480 --> 1:23:44.040
+ Every person with a checkbook
+
+1:23:44.040 --> 1:23:45.720
+ can blanket a city in scooters
+
+1:23:45.720 --> 1:23:47.920
+ and that's why you have 10 different scooter companies.
+
+1:23:47.920 --> 1:23:48.760
+ Which one's going to win?
+
+1:23:48.760 --> 1:23:49.600
+ It's a race to the bottom.
+
+1:23:49.600 --> 1:23:51.040
+ It's a terrible market to be in
+
+1:23:51.040 --> 1:23:53.160
+ because there's no market for scooters.
+
+1:23:54.960 --> 1:23:56.520
+ And the scooters don't get a say
+
+1:23:56.520 --> 1:23:57.480
+ in whether they want to be bought
+
+1:23:57.480 --> 1:23:58.440
+ and deployed to a city or not.
+
+1:23:58.440 --> 1:23:59.280
+ Right.
+
+1:23:59.280 --> 1:24:00.120
+ So yeah.
+
+1:24:00.120 --> 1:24:02.080
+ We're going to entice the scooters with subsidies
+
+1:24:02.080 --> 1:24:02.920
+ and deals.
+
+1:24:03.840 --> 1:24:05.480
+ So whenever you have to invest that capital,
+
+1:24:05.480 --> 1:24:06.720
+ it doesn't...
+
+1:24:06.720 --> 1:24:07.560
+ It doesn't come back.
+
+1:24:07.560 --> 1:24:08.600
+ Yeah.
+
+1:24:08.600 --> 1:24:12.320
+ They can't be your main criticism of the Waymo approach.
+
+1:24:12.320 --> 1:24:14.840
+ Oh, I'm saying even if it does technically work.
+
+1:24:14.840 --> 1:24:17.040
+ Even if it does technically work, that's a problem.
+
+1:24:17.040 --> 1:24:18.000
+ Yeah.
+
+1:24:18.000 --> 1:24:21.720
+ I don't know if I were to say, I would say,
+
+1:24:22.840 --> 1:24:23.520
+ you're already there.
+
+1:24:23.520 --> 1:24:24.560
+ I haven't even thought about that.
+
+1:24:24.560 --> 1:24:26.520
+ But I would say the bigger challenge
+
+1:24:26.520 --> 1:24:27.760
+ is the technical approach.
+
+1:24:29.760 --> 1:24:31.840
+ So Waymo's cruise is...
+
+1:24:31.840 --> 1:24:33.000
+ And not just the technical approach,
+
+1:24:33.000 --> 1:24:34.800
+ but of creating value.
+
+1:24:34.800 --> 1:24:39.800
+ I still don't understand how you beat Uber,
+
+1:24:40.760 --> 1:24:43.480
+ the human driven cars.
+
+1:24:43.480 --> 1:24:44.920
+ In terms of financially,
+
+1:24:44.920 --> 1:24:47.160
+ it doesn't make sense to me
+
+1:24:47.160 --> 1:24:50.080
+ that people want to get an autonomous vehicle.
+
+1:24:50.080 --> 1:24:52.800
+ I don't understand how you make money.
+
+1:24:52.800 --> 1:24:56.440
+ In the long term, yes, like real long term,
+
+1:24:56.440 --> 1:24:58.640
+ but it just feels like there's too much
+
+1:24:58.640 --> 1:24:59.960
+ capital investment needed.
+
+1:24:59.960 --> 1:25:01.200
+ Oh, and they're going to be worse than Ubers
+
+1:25:01.200 --> 1:25:02.440
+ because they're going to stop
+
+1:25:02.440 --> 1:25:04.760
+ for every little thing everywhere.
+
+1:25:06.320 --> 1:25:07.360
+ I'll say a nice thing about cruise.
+
+1:25:07.360 --> 1:25:08.440
+ That was my nice thing about Waymo.
+
+1:25:08.440 --> 1:25:09.280
+ They're three years ahead of me.
+
+1:25:09.280 --> 1:25:10.120
+ It was a nice...
+
+1:25:10.120 --> 1:25:10.960
+ Oh, because they're three years.
+
+1:25:10.960 --> 1:25:12.480
+ They're three years technically ahead of everybody.
+
+1:25:12.480 --> 1:25:13.960
+ Their tech stack is great.
+
+1:25:14.800 --> 1:25:17.920
+ My nice thing about cruise is GM buying them
+
+1:25:17.920 --> 1:25:19.160
+ was a great move for GM.
+
+1:25:20.600 --> 1:25:22.240
+ For $1 billion,
+
+1:25:22.240 --> 1:25:25.600
+ GM bought an insurance policy against Waymo.
+
+1:25:26.560 --> 1:25:30.000
+ They put cruise is three years behind Waymo.
+
+1:25:30.000 --> 1:25:32.600
+ That means Google will get a monopoly
+
+1:25:32.600 --> 1:25:35.160
+ on the technology for at most three years.
+
+1:25:36.840 --> 1:25:38.880
+ And if technology works,
+
+1:25:38.880 --> 1:25:40.840
+ you might not even be right about the three years.
+
+1:25:40.840 --> 1:25:41.840
+ It might be less.
+
+1:25:41.840 --> 1:25:42.680
+ Might be less.
+
+1:25:42.680 --> 1:25:44.320
+ Cruise actually might not be that far behind.
+
+1:25:44.320 --> 1:25:47.360
+ I don't know how much Waymo has waffled around
+
+1:25:47.360 --> 1:25:49.760
+ or how much of it actually is just that long tail.
+
+1:25:49.760 --> 1:25:50.600
+ Yeah, okay.
+
+1:25:50.600 --> 1:25:53.600
+ If that's the best you could say in terms of nice things,
+
+1:25:53.600 --> 1:25:55.200
+ that's more of a nice thing for GM
+
+1:25:55.200 --> 1:25:58.560
+ that that's a smart insurance policy.
+
+1:25:58.560 --> 1:25:59.680
+ It's a smart insurance policy.
+
+1:25:59.680 --> 1:26:01.880
+ I mean, I think that's how...
+
+1:26:01.880 --> 1:26:05.200
+ I can't see cruise working out any other.
+
+1:26:05.200 --> 1:26:07.840
+ For cruise to leapfrog Waymo would really surprise me.
+
+1:26:10.400 --> 1:26:13.000
+ Yeah, so let's talk about the underlying assumptions
+
+1:26:13.000 --> 1:26:13.840
+ of everything is...
+
+1:26:13.840 --> 1:26:15.440
+ We're not gonna leapfrog Tesla.
+
+1:26:17.560 --> 1:26:19.240
+ Tesla would have to seriously mess up
+
+1:26:19.240 --> 1:26:20.440
+ for us to leapfrog them.
+
+1:26:20.440 --> 1:26:23.240
+ Okay, so the way you leapfrog, right,
+
+1:26:23.240 --> 1:26:26.120
+ is you come up with an idea
+
+1:26:26.120 --> 1:26:28.560
+ or you take a direction, perhaps secretly,
+
+1:26:28.560 --> 1:26:30.640
+ that the other people aren't taking.
+
+1:26:31.640 --> 1:26:36.640
+ And so cruise, Waymo, even Aurora...
+
+1:26:38.080 --> 1:26:40.080
+ I don't know, Aurora, Zooks is the same stack as well.
+
+1:26:40.080 --> 1:26:41.720
+ They're all the same code base even.
+
+1:26:41.720 --> 1:26:44.120
+ They're all the same DARPA Urban Challenge code base.
+
+1:26:44.120 --> 1:26:45.360
+ It's...
+
+1:26:45.360 --> 1:26:47.760
+ So the question is, do you think there's a room
+
+1:26:47.760 --> 1:26:49.120
+ for brilliance and innovation there
+
+1:26:49.120 --> 1:26:50.560
+ that will change everything?
+
+1:26:51.560 --> 1:26:53.880
+ Like say, okay, so I'll give you examples.
+
+1:26:53.880 --> 1:26:58.880
+ It could be if revolution and mapping, for example,
+
+1:26:59.640 --> 1:27:03.040
+ that allow you to map things,
+
+1:27:03.040 --> 1:27:05.840
+ do HD maps of the whole world,
+
+1:27:05.840 --> 1:27:08.080
+ all weather conditions somehow really well,
+
+1:27:08.080 --> 1:27:13.080
+ or revolution and simulation,
+
+1:27:14.480 --> 1:27:18.840
+ to where all the way you said before becomes incorrect.
+
+1:27:20.480 --> 1:27:21.520
+ That kind of thing.
+
+1:27:21.520 --> 1:27:23.920
+ Any room for breakthrough innovation?
+
+1:27:24.920 --> 1:27:25.960
+ What I said before about,
+
+1:27:25.960 --> 1:27:28.280
+ oh, they actually get the whole thing, well,
+
+1:27:28.280 --> 1:27:32.600
+ I'll say this about we divide driving into three problems.
+
+1:27:32.600 --> 1:27:33.800
+ And I actually haven't solved the third yet,
+
+1:27:33.800 --> 1:27:34.800
+ but I haven't had any idea how to do it.
+
+1:27:34.800 --> 1:27:36.120
+ So there's the static.
+
+1:27:36.120 --> 1:27:38.000
+ The static driving problem is assuming
+
+1:27:38.000 --> 1:27:40.120
+ you are the only car on the road, right?
+
+1:27:40.120 --> 1:27:42.000
+ And this problem can be solved 100%
+
+1:27:42.000 --> 1:27:44.000
+ with mapping and localization.
+
+1:27:44.000 --> 1:27:45.760
+ This is why farms work the way they do.
+
+1:27:45.760 --> 1:27:48.440
+ If all you have to deal with is the static problem,
+
+1:27:48.440 --> 1:27:50.160
+ and you can statically schedule your machines, right?
+
+1:27:50.160 --> 1:27:52.680
+ It's the same as like statically scheduling processes.
+
+1:27:52.680 --> 1:27:54.040
+ You can statically schedule your tractors
+
+1:27:54.040 --> 1:27:56.160
+ to never hit each other on their paths, right?
+
+1:27:56.160 --> 1:27:57.520
+ Because then you know the speed they go at.
+
+1:27:57.520 --> 1:28:00.160
+ So that's the static driving problem.
+
+1:28:00.160 --> 1:28:03.160
+ Maps only helps you with the static driving problem.
+
+1:28:03.920 --> 1:28:06.960
+ Yeah, the question about static driving,
+
+1:28:06.960 --> 1:28:08.800
+ you've just made it sound like it's really easy.
+
+1:28:08.800 --> 1:28:10.160
+ Static driving is really easy.
+
+1:28:11.880 --> 1:28:13.040
+ How easy?
+
+1:28:13.040 --> 1:28:16.480
+ How, well, because the whole drifting out of lane,
+
+1:28:16.480 --> 1:28:18.760
+ when Tesla drifts out of lane,
+
+1:28:18.760 --> 1:28:21.960
+ it's failing on the fundamental static driving problem.
+
+1:28:21.960 --> 1:28:24.440
+ Tesla is drifting out of lane?
+
+1:28:24.440 --> 1:28:27.720
+ The static driving problem is not easy for the world.
+
+1:28:27.720 --> 1:28:30.320
+ The static driving problem is easy for one route.
+
+1:28:31.840 --> 1:28:33.920
+ One route in one weather condition
+
+1:28:33.920 --> 1:28:37.920
+ with one state of lane markings
+
+1:28:37.920 --> 1:28:40.920
+ and like no deterioration, no cracks in the road.
+
+1:28:40.920 --> 1:28:42.600
+ Well, I'm assuming you have a perfect localizer.
+
+1:28:42.600 --> 1:28:44.200
+ So that's all for the weather condition
+
+1:28:44.200 --> 1:28:45.560
+ and the lane marking condition.
+
+1:28:45.560 --> 1:28:46.640
+ But that's the problem.
+
+1:28:46.640 --> 1:28:47.680
+ How do you have a perfect localizer?
+
+1:28:47.680 --> 1:28:50.560
+ You can build, perfect localizers are not that hard to build.
+
+1:28:50.560 --> 1:28:53.360
+ Okay, come on now, with LIDAR.
+
+1:28:53.360 --> 1:28:54.200
+ LIDAR, yeah.
+
+1:28:54.200 --> 1:28:55.040
+ With LIDAR, okay.
+
+1:28:55.040 --> 1:28:56.440
+ LIDAR, yeah, but you use LIDAR, right?
+
+1:28:56.440 --> 1:28:58.640
+ Like you use LIDAR, build a perfect localizer.
+
+1:28:58.640 --> 1:29:00.960
+ Building a perfect localizer without LIDAR,
+
+1:29:03.000 --> 1:29:04.320
+ it's gonna be hard.
+
+1:29:04.320 --> 1:29:05.760
+ You can get 10 centimeters without LIDAR,
+
+1:29:05.760 --> 1:29:07.240
+ you can get one centimeter with LIDAR.
+
+1:29:07.240 --> 1:29:09.280
+ I'm not even concerned about the one or 10 centimeters.
+
+1:29:09.280 --> 1:29:12.680
+ I'm concerned if every once in a while you just weigh off.
+
+1:29:12.680 --> 1:29:17.480
+ Yeah, so this is why you have to carefully
+
+1:29:17.480 --> 1:29:20.040
+ make sure you're always tracking your position.
+
+1:29:20.040 --> 1:29:21.760
+ You wanna use LIDAR camera fusion,
+
+1:29:21.760 --> 1:29:24.480
+ but you can get the reliability of that system
+
+1:29:24.480 --> 1:29:28.000
+ up to 100,000 miles
+
+1:29:28.000 --> 1:29:29.720
+ and then you write some fallback condition
+
+1:29:29.720 --> 1:29:32.160
+ where it's not that bad if you're way off, right?
+
+1:29:32.160 --> 1:29:33.800
+ I think that you can get it to the point,
+
+1:29:33.800 --> 1:29:36.800
+ it's like ASL D that you're never in a case
+
+1:29:36.800 --> 1:29:38.480
+ where you're way off and you don't know it.
+
+1:29:38.480 --> 1:29:40.240
+ Yeah, okay, so this is brilliant.
+
+1:29:40.240 --> 1:29:41.160
+ So that's the static.
+
+1:29:41.160 --> 1:29:42.280
+ Static.
+
+1:29:42.280 --> 1:29:45.960
+ We can, especially with LIDAR and good HD maps,
+
+1:29:45.960 --> 1:29:47.080
+ you can solve that problem.
+
+1:29:47.080 --> 1:29:47.920
+ It's easy.
+
+1:29:47.920 --> 1:29:51.840
+ The static, the static problem is so easy.
+
+1:29:51.840 --> 1:29:54.000
+ It's very typical for you to say something's easy.
+
+1:29:54.000 --> 1:29:54.840
+ I got it.
+
+1:29:54.840 --> 1:29:56.920
+ It's not as challenging as the other ones, okay.
+
+1:29:56.920 --> 1:29:58.760
+ Well, okay, maybe it's obvious how to solve it.
+
+1:29:58.760 --> 1:29:59.760
+ The third one's the hardest.
+
+1:29:59.760 --> 1:30:01.920
+ And a lot of people don't even think about the third one
+
+1:30:01.920 --> 1:30:03.640
+ and even see it as different from the second one.
+
+1:30:03.640 --> 1:30:05.720
+ So the second one is dynamic.
+
+1:30:05.720 --> 1:30:08.560
+ The second one is like, say there's an obvious example,
+
+1:30:08.560 --> 1:30:10.360
+ it's like a car stopped at a red light, right?
+
+1:30:10.360 --> 1:30:12.520
+ You can't have that car in your map
+
+1:30:12.520 --> 1:30:13.720
+ because you don't know whether that car
+
+1:30:13.720 --> 1:30:14.880
+ is gonna be there or not.
+
+1:30:14.880 --> 1:30:17.960
+ So you have to detect that car in real time
+
+1:30:17.960 --> 1:30:21.600
+ and then you have to do the appropriate action, right?
+
+1:30:21.600 --> 1:30:24.800
+ Also, that car is not a fixed object.
+
+1:30:24.800 --> 1:30:26.600
+ That car may move and you have to predict
+
+1:30:26.600 --> 1:30:28.680
+ what that car will do, right?
+
+1:30:28.680 --> 1:30:30.840
+ So this is the dynamic problem.
+
+1:30:30.840 --> 1:30:31.680
+ Yeah.
+
+1:30:31.680 --> 1:30:32.800
+ So you have to deal with this.
+
+1:30:32.800 --> 1:30:36.640
+ This involves, again, like you're gonna need models
+
+1:30:36.640 --> 1:30:38.760
+ of other people's behavior.
+
+1:30:38.760 --> 1:30:40.160
+ Do you, are you including in that?
+
+1:30:40.160 --> 1:30:42.320
+ I don't wanna step on the third one.
+
+1:30:42.320 --> 1:30:46.600
+ Oh, but are you including in that your influence
+
+1:30:46.600 --> 1:30:47.440
+ on people?
+
+1:30:47.440 --> 1:30:48.280
+ Ah, that's the third one.
+
+1:30:48.280 --> 1:30:49.120
+ Okay.
+
+1:30:49.120 --> 1:30:49.960
+ That's the third one.
+
+1:30:49.960 --> 1:30:51.880
+ We call it the counterfactual.
+
+1:30:51.880 --> 1:30:52.720
+ Yeah, brilliant.
+
+1:30:52.720 --> 1:30:53.560
+ And that.
+
+1:30:53.560 --> 1:30:54.920
+ I just talked to Judea Pro who's obsessed
+
+1:30:54.920 --> 1:30:55.760
+ with counterfactuals.
+
+1:30:55.760 --> 1:30:58.640
+ Counterfactual, oh yeah, yeah, I read his books.
+
+1:30:58.640 --> 1:31:03.640
+ So the static and the dynamic are our approach right now
+
+1:31:03.960 --> 1:31:07.600
+ for lateral will scale completely to the static and dynamic.
+
+1:31:07.600 --> 1:31:10.760
+ The counterfactual, the only way I have to do it yet,
+
+1:31:10.760 --> 1:31:14.000
+ the thing that I wanna do once we have all of these cars
+
+1:31:14.000 --> 1:31:16.760
+ is I wanna do reinforcement learning on the world.
+
+1:31:16.760 --> 1:31:18.880
+ I'm always gonna turn the exploiter up to max.
+
+1:31:18.880 --> 1:31:20.440
+ I'm not gonna have them explore.
+
+1:31:20.440 --> 1:31:22.760
+ But the only real way to get at the counterfactual
+
+1:31:22.760 --> 1:31:24.080
+ is to do reinforcement learning
+
+1:31:24.080 --> 1:31:26.360
+ because the other agents are humans.
+
+1:31:27.760 --> 1:31:30.080
+ So that's fascinating that you break it down like that.
+
+1:31:30.080 --> 1:31:31.680
+ I agree completely.
+
+1:31:31.680 --> 1:31:33.600
+ I've spent my life thinking about this problem.
+
+1:31:33.600 --> 1:31:34.920
+ This is beautiful.
+
+1:31:34.920 --> 1:31:37.880
+ And part of it, cause you're slightly insane,
+
+1:31:37.880 --> 1:31:42.880
+ because not my life, just the last four years.
+
+1:31:43.120 --> 1:31:48.120
+ No, no, you have some non zero percent of your brain
+
+1:31:48.920 --> 1:31:52.360
+ has a madman in it, which is a really good feature.
+
+1:31:52.360 --> 1:31:55.920
+ But there's a safety component to it
+
+1:31:55.920 --> 1:31:57.320
+ that I think when there's sort of
+
+1:31:57.320 --> 1:31:59.040
+ with counterfactuals and so on,
+
+1:31:59.040 --> 1:32:00.280
+ that would just freak people out.
+
+1:32:00.280 --> 1:32:03.320
+ How do you even start to think about this in general?
+
+1:32:03.320 --> 1:32:07.600
+ I mean, you've had some friction with NHTSA and so on.
+
+1:32:07.600 --> 1:32:12.600
+ I am frankly exhausted by safety engineers.
+
+1:32:14.280 --> 1:32:19.280
+ The prioritization on safety over innovation
+
+1:32:21.360 --> 1:32:23.720
+ to a degree where it kills, in my view,
+
+1:32:23.720 --> 1:32:26.200
+ kills safety in the longterm.
+
+1:32:26.200 --> 1:32:28.080
+ So the counterfactual thing,
+
+1:32:28.080 --> 1:32:31.560
+ they just actually exploring this world
+
+1:32:31.560 --> 1:32:33.600
+ of how do you interact with dynamic objects and so on?
+
+1:32:33.600 --> 1:32:34.840
+ How do you think about safety?
+
+1:32:34.840 --> 1:32:38.120
+ You can do reinforcement learning without ever exploring.
+
+1:32:38.120 --> 1:32:39.200
+ And I said that, like,
+
+1:32:39.200 --> 1:32:41.560
+ so you can think about your, in like reinforcement learning,
+
+1:32:41.560 --> 1:32:44.320
+ it's usually called like a temperature parameter.
+
+1:32:44.320 --> 1:32:45.360
+ And your temperature parameter
+
+1:32:45.360 --> 1:32:48.080
+ is how often you deviate from the argmax.
+
+1:32:48.080 --> 1:32:50.720
+ I could always set that to zero and still learn.
+
+1:32:50.720 --> 1:32:52.840
+ And I feel that you'd always want that set to zero
+
+1:32:52.840 --> 1:32:54.080
+ on your actual system.
+
+1:32:54.080 --> 1:32:54.920
+ Gotcha.
+
+1:32:54.920 --> 1:32:58.160
+ But the problem is you first don't know very much
+
+1:32:58.160 --> 1:32:59.560
+ and so you're going to make mistakes.
+
+1:32:59.560 --> 1:33:01.680
+ So the learning, the exploration happens through mistakes.
+
+1:33:01.680 --> 1:33:03.240
+ We're all ready, yeah, but.
+
+1:33:03.240 --> 1:33:06.080
+ Okay, so the consequences of a mistake.
+
+1:33:06.080 --> 1:33:09.400
+ OpenPilot and Autopilot are making mistakes left and right.
+
+1:33:09.400 --> 1:33:12.560
+ We have 700 daily active users,
+
+1:33:12.560 --> 1:33:14.080
+ 1,000 weekly active users.
+
+1:33:14.080 --> 1:33:18.920
+ OpenPilot makes tens of thousands of mistakes a week.
+
+1:33:18.920 --> 1:33:21.160
+ These mistakes have zero consequences.
+
+1:33:21.160 --> 1:33:22.520
+ These mistakes are,
+
+1:33:22.520 --> 1:33:26.800
+ oh, I wanted to take this exit and it went straight.
+
+1:33:26.800 --> 1:33:28.520
+ So I'm just going to carefully touch the wheel.
+
+1:33:28.520 --> 1:33:29.360
+ The humans catch them.
+
+1:33:29.360 --> 1:33:30.640
+ The humans catch them.
+
+1:33:30.640 --> 1:33:33.120
+ And the human disengagement is labeling
+
+1:33:33.120 --> 1:33:35.000
+ that reinforcement learning in a completely
+
+1:33:35.000 --> 1:33:36.200
+ consequence free way.
+
+1:33:37.240 --> 1:33:39.840
+ So driver monitoring is the way you ensure they keep.
+
+1:33:39.840 --> 1:33:40.680
+ Yes.
+
+1:33:40.680 --> 1:33:42.120
+ They keep paying attention.
+
+1:33:42.120 --> 1:33:43.240
+ How's your messaging?
+
+1:33:43.240 --> 1:33:45.200
+ Say I gave you a billion dollars,
+
+1:33:45.200 --> 1:33:46.960
+ so you would be scaling it now.
+
+1:33:47.800 --> 1:33:49.720
+ Oh, if I could scale, I couldn't scale with any amount of money.
+
+1:33:49.720 --> 1:33:51.640
+ I'd raise money if I could, if I had a way to scale it.
+
+1:33:51.640 --> 1:33:53.320
+ Yeah, you're not, no, I'm not focused on scale.
+
+1:33:53.320 --> 1:33:54.160
+ I don't know how to do.
+
+1:33:54.160 --> 1:33:55.760
+ Oh, like, I guess I could sell it to more people,
+
+1:33:55.760 --> 1:33:56.960
+ but I want to make the system better.
+
+1:33:56.960 --> 1:33:57.800
+ Better, better.
+
+1:33:57.800 --> 1:33:58.840
+ And I don't know how to.
+
+1:33:58.840 --> 1:34:01.080
+ But what's the messaging here?
+
+1:34:01.080 --> 1:34:02.560
+ I got a chance to talk to Elon.
+
+1:34:02.560 --> 1:34:07.560
+ And he basically said that the human factor doesn't matter.
+
+1:34:09.280 --> 1:34:10.360
+ You know, the human doesn't matter
+
+1:34:10.360 --> 1:34:12.280
+ because the system will perform.
+
+1:34:12.280 --> 1:34:14.760
+ There'll be sort of a, sorry to use the term,
+
+1:34:14.760 --> 1:34:16.120
+ but like a singular, like a point
+
+1:34:16.120 --> 1:34:17.920
+ where it gets just much better.
+
+1:34:17.920 --> 1:34:20.800
+ And so the human, it won't really matter.
+
+1:34:20.800 --> 1:34:25.000
+ But it seems like that human catching the system
+
+1:34:25.000 --> 1:34:29.360
+ when it gets into trouble is like the thing
+
+1:34:29.360 --> 1:34:32.720
+ which will make something like reinforcement learning work.
+
+1:34:32.720 --> 1:34:35.640
+ So how do you, how do you think messaging for Tesla,
+
+1:34:35.640 --> 1:34:39.080
+ for you, for the industry in general, should change?
+
+1:34:39.080 --> 1:34:40.840
+ I think my messaging is pretty clear,
+
+1:34:40.840 --> 1:34:43.080
+ at least like our messaging wasn't that clear
+
+1:34:43.080 --> 1:34:45.200
+ in the beginning and I do kind of fault myself for that.
+
+1:34:45.200 --> 1:34:48.480
+ We are proud right now to be a level two system.
+
+1:34:48.480 --> 1:34:50.360
+ We are proud to be level two.
+
+1:34:50.360 --> 1:34:51.640
+ If we talk about level four,
+
+1:34:51.640 --> 1:34:53.200
+ it's not with the current hardware.
+
+1:34:53.200 --> 1:34:55.920
+ It's not going to be just a magical OTA upgrade.
+
+1:34:55.920 --> 1:34:57.280
+ It's going to be new hardware.
+
+1:34:57.280 --> 1:35:00.000
+ It's going to be very carefully thought out right now.
+
+1:35:00.000 --> 1:35:01.560
+ We are proud to be level two.
+
+1:35:01.560 --> 1:35:03.320
+ And we have a rigorous safety model.
+
+1:35:03.320 --> 1:35:05.680
+ I mean, not like, like, okay, rigorous.
+
+1:35:05.680 --> 1:35:06.600
+ Who knows what that means?
+
+1:35:06.600 --> 1:35:08.600
+ But we at least have a safety model
+
+1:35:08.600 --> 1:35:09.560
+ and we make it explicit.
+
+1:35:09.560 --> 1:35:11.800
+ It's in safety.md and open pilot.
+
+1:35:11.800 --> 1:35:13.960
+ And it says, seriously though.
+
+1:35:13.960 --> 1:35:14.800
+ Safety.md.
+
+1:35:14.800 --> 1:35:15.840
+ Safety.md.
+
+1:35:16.840 --> 1:35:18.400
+ This is really, this is so Android.
+
+1:35:18.400 --> 1:35:21.800
+ So, well, this is, this is the safety model
+
+1:35:21.800 --> 1:35:25.520
+ and I like to have conversations like if, like, you know,
+
+1:35:25.520 --> 1:35:27.120
+ sometimes people will come to you and they're like,
+
+1:35:27.120 --> 1:35:29.240
+ your system's not safe.
+
+1:35:29.240 --> 1:35:30.080
+ Okay.
+
+1:35:30.080 --> 1:35:31.080
+ Have you read my safety docs?
+
+1:35:31.080 --> 1:35:32.720
+ Would you like to have an intelligent conversation
+
+1:35:32.720 --> 1:35:33.560
+ about this?
+
+1:35:33.560 --> 1:35:34.400
+ And the answer is always no.
+
+1:35:34.400 --> 1:35:36.880
+ They just like scream about, it runs Python.
+
+1:35:38.240 --> 1:35:39.080
+ Okay. What?
+
+1:35:39.080 --> 1:35:41.560
+ So you're saying that, that because Python's not real time,
+
+1:35:41.560 --> 1:35:44.240
+ Python not being real time never causes disengagement.
+
+1:35:44.240 --> 1:35:47.640
+ Disengagement's are caused by, you know, the model is QM.
+
+1:35:47.640 --> 1:35:49.760
+ But safety.md says the following.
+
+1:35:49.760 --> 1:35:50.600
+ First and foremost,
+
+1:35:50.600 --> 1:35:53.000
+ the driver must be paying attention at all times.
+
+1:35:54.240 --> 1:35:55.320
+ I don't consider, I do,
+
+1:35:55.320 --> 1:35:57.720
+ I still consider the software to be alpha software
+
+1:35:57.720 --> 1:36:00.080
+ until we can actually enforce that statement.
+
+1:36:00.080 --> 1:36:03.280
+ But I feel it's very well communicated to our users.
+
+1:36:03.280 --> 1:36:04.520
+ Two more things.
+
+1:36:04.520 --> 1:36:09.080
+ One is the user must be able to easily take control
+
+1:36:09.080 --> 1:36:10.880
+ of the vehicle at all times.
+
+1:36:10.880 --> 1:36:14.440
+ So if you step on the gas or brake with open pilot,
+
+1:36:14.440 --> 1:36:16.400
+ it gives full manual control back to the user
+
+1:36:16.400 --> 1:36:18.680
+ or press the cancel button.
+
+1:36:18.680 --> 1:36:23.240
+ Step two, the car will never react so quickly.
+
+1:36:23.240 --> 1:36:26.000
+ We define so quickly to be about one second
+
+1:36:26.000 --> 1:36:27.640
+ that you can't react in time.
+
+1:36:27.640 --> 1:36:29.480
+ And we do this by enforcing torque limits,
+
+1:36:29.480 --> 1:36:31.520
+ braking limits and acceleration limits.
+
+1:36:31.520 --> 1:36:36.520
+ So we have like our torque limits way lower than Tesla's.
+
+1:36:36.520 --> 1:36:39.080
+ This is another potential.
+
+1:36:39.080 --> 1:36:40.240
+ If I could tweak autopilot,
+
+1:36:40.240 --> 1:36:41.360
+ I would lower their torque limit
+
+1:36:41.360 --> 1:36:42.960
+ and I would add driver monitoring.
+
+1:36:42.960 --> 1:36:46.240
+ Because autopilot can jerk the wheel hard.
+
+1:36:46.240 --> 1:36:47.520
+ Open pilot can't.
+
+1:36:47.520 --> 1:36:52.080
+ It's, we limit and all this code is open source, readable.
+
+1:36:52.080 --> 1:36:54.880
+ And I believe now it's all MISRA C compliant.
+
+1:36:54.880 --> 1:36:55.800
+ What's that mean?
+
+1:36:57.080 --> 1:37:00.400
+ MISRA is like the automotive coding standard.
+
+1:37:00.400 --> 1:37:03.400
+ At first, I've come to respect,
+
+1:37:03.400 --> 1:37:04.960
+ I've been reading like the standards lately
+
+1:37:04.960 --> 1:37:05.920
+ and I've come to respect them.
+
+1:37:05.920 --> 1:37:07.800
+ They're actually written by very smart people.
+
+1:37:07.800 --> 1:37:09.920
+ Yeah, they're brilliant people actually.
+
+1:37:09.920 --> 1:37:11.320
+ They have a lot of experience.
+
+1:37:11.320 --> 1:37:13.360
+ They're sometimes a little too cautious,
+
+1:37:13.360 --> 1:37:16.800
+ but in this case, it pays off.
+
+1:37:16.800 --> 1:37:18.440
+ MISRA is written by like computer scientists
+
+1:37:18.440 --> 1:37:19.840
+ and you can tell by the language they use.
+
+1:37:19.840 --> 1:37:21.080
+ You can tell by the language they use.
+
+1:37:21.080 --> 1:37:24.440
+ They talk about like whether certain conditions in MISRA
+
+1:37:24.440 --> 1:37:26.520
+ are decidable or undecidable.
+
+1:37:26.520 --> 1:37:28.360
+ And you mean like the halting problem?
+
+1:37:28.360 --> 1:37:31.600
+ And yes, all right, you've earned my respect.
+
+1:37:31.600 --> 1:37:33.120
+ I will read carefully what you have to say
+
+1:37:33.120 --> 1:37:35.760
+ and we want to make our code compliant with that.
+
+1:37:35.760 --> 1:37:38.160
+ All right, so you're proud level two, beautiful.
+
+1:37:38.160 --> 1:37:42.320
+ So you were the founder and I think CEO of Kama AI,
+
+1:37:42.320 --> 1:37:44.320
+ then you were the head of research.
+
+1:37:44.320 --> 1:37:46.080
+ What the heck are you now?
+
+1:37:46.080 --> 1:37:47.480
+ What's your connection to Kama AI?
+
+1:37:47.480 --> 1:37:49.640
+ I'm the president, but I'm one of those like
+
+1:37:49.640 --> 1:37:53.440
+ unelected presidents of like a small dictatorship country,
+
+1:37:53.440 --> 1:37:55.200
+ not one of those like elected presidents.
+
+1:37:55.200 --> 1:37:57.640
+ Oh, so you're like Putin when he was like the, yeah,
+
+1:37:57.640 --> 1:37:58.980
+ I got you.
+
+1:37:58.980 --> 1:38:02.120
+ So there's, what's the governance structure?
+
+1:38:02.120 --> 1:38:04.800
+ What's the future of Kama AI finance?
+
+1:38:04.800 --> 1:38:08.120
+ I mean, yeah, as a business, do you want,
+
+1:38:08.120 --> 1:38:11.640
+ are you just focused on getting things right now,
+
+1:38:11.640 --> 1:38:14.920
+ making some small amount of money in the meantime
+
+1:38:14.920 --> 1:38:17.520
+ and then when it works, it works a new scale.
+
+1:38:17.520 --> 1:38:20.480
+ Our burn rate is about 200 K a month
+
+1:38:20.480 --> 1:38:23.040
+ and our revenue is about 100 K a month.
+
+1:38:23.040 --> 1:38:24.920
+ So we need to forex our revenue,
+
+1:38:24.920 --> 1:38:28.200
+ but we haven't like tried very hard at that yet.
+
+1:38:28.200 --> 1:38:30.160
+ And the revenue is basically selling stuff online.
+
+1:38:30.160 --> 1:38:32.360
+ Yeah, we sell stuff shop.com.ai.
+
+1:38:32.360 --> 1:38:33.920
+ Is there other, well, okay.
+
+1:38:33.920 --> 1:38:35.360
+ So you'll have to figure out.
+
+1:38:35.360 --> 1:38:37.880
+ That's our only, see, but to me,
+
+1:38:37.880 --> 1:38:40.400
+ that's like respectable revenues.
+
+1:38:40.400 --> 1:38:42.640
+ We make it by selling products to consumers
+
+1:38:42.640 --> 1:38:45.040
+ for honest and transparent about what they are.
+
+1:38:45.040 --> 1:38:49.000
+ Most actually level four companies, right?
+
+1:38:50.720 --> 1:38:54.320
+ Cause you could easily start blowing up like smoke,
+
+1:38:54.320 --> 1:38:57.080
+ like overselling the hype and feeding into,
+
+1:38:57.080 --> 1:38:59.080
+ getting some fundraisers.
+
+1:38:59.080 --> 1:39:00.520
+ Oh, you're the guy, you're a genius
+
+1:39:00.520 --> 1:39:01.800
+ because you hacked the iPhone.
+
+1:39:01.800 --> 1:39:02.920
+ Oh, I hate that.
+
+1:39:02.920 --> 1:39:03.760
+ I hate that.
+
+1:39:03.760 --> 1:39:06.360
+ Yeah, I can trade my social capital for more money.
+
+1:39:06.360 --> 1:39:07.320
+ I did it once.
+
+1:39:07.320 --> 1:39:10.320
+ I almost regret it doing it the first time.
+
+1:39:10.320 --> 1:39:11.640
+ Well, on a small tangent,
+
+1:39:11.640 --> 1:39:16.560
+ what's your, you seem to not like fame
+
+1:39:16.560 --> 1:39:18.840
+ and yet you're also drawn to fame.
+
+1:39:18.840 --> 1:39:23.840
+ What's, where have you on, where are you on that currently?
+
+1:39:24.560 --> 1:39:27.200
+ Have you had some introspection, some soul searching?
+
+1:39:27.200 --> 1:39:28.480
+ Yeah.
+
+1:39:28.480 --> 1:39:32.200
+ I actually, I've come to a pretty stable position on that.
+
+1:39:32.200 --> 1:39:33.880
+ Like after the first time,
+
+1:39:33.880 --> 1:39:36.840
+ I realized that I don't want attention from the masses.
+
+1:39:36.840 --> 1:39:39.160
+ I want attention from people who I respect.
+
+1:39:39.160 --> 1:39:41.960
+ Who do you respect?
+
+1:39:41.960 --> 1:39:43.960
+ I can give a list of people.
+
+1:39:43.960 --> 1:39:47.200
+ So are these like Elon Musk type characters?
+
+1:39:47.200 --> 1:39:49.040
+ Yeah.
+
+1:39:49.040 --> 1:39:50.000
+ Actually, you know what?
+
+1:39:50.000 --> 1:39:51.200
+ I'll make it more broad than that.
+
+1:39:51.200 --> 1:39:52.600
+ I won't make it about a person.
+
+1:39:52.600 --> 1:39:54.040
+ I respect skill.
+
+1:39:54.040 --> 1:39:56.880
+ I respect people who have skills, right?
+
+1:39:56.880 --> 1:40:00.280
+ And I would like to like be,
+
+1:40:00.280 --> 1:40:01.400
+ I'm not gonna say famous,
+
+1:40:01.400 --> 1:40:03.760
+ but be like known among more people
+
+1:40:03.760 --> 1:40:05.440
+ who have like real skills.
+
+1:40:05.440 --> 1:40:10.440
+ Who in cars, do you think have skill?
+
+1:40:12.560 --> 1:40:13.720
+ Not do you respect?
+
+1:40:15.000 --> 1:40:17.760
+ Oh, Kyle Voat has skill.
+
+1:40:17.760 --> 1:40:19.880
+ A lot of people at Waymo have skill.
+
+1:40:19.880 --> 1:40:20.840
+ And I respect them.
+
+1:40:20.840 --> 1:40:23.760
+ I respect them as engineers.
+
+1:40:23.760 --> 1:40:24.920
+ Like I can think, I mean,
+
+1:40:24.920 --> 1:40:26.280
+ I think about all the times in my life
+
+1:40:26.280 --> 1:40:27.960
+ where I've been like dead set on approaches
+
+1:40:27.960 --> 1:40:29.160
+ and they turn out to be wrong.
+
+1:40:29.160 --> 1:40:30.000
+ Yeah.
+
+1:40:30.000 --> 1:40:31.720
+ So I mean, this might, I might be wrong.
+
+1:40:31.720 --> 1:40:34.720
+ I accept that, I accept that there's a decent chance
+
+1:40:34.720 --> 1:40:36.600
+ that I'm wrong.
+
+1:40:36.600 --> 1:40:38.400
+ And actually, I mean, having talked to Chris Armson,
+
+1:40:38.400 --> 1:40:40.480
+ Sterling Anderson, those guys,
+
+1:40:40.480 --> 1:40:43.360
+ I mean, I deeply respect Chris.
+
+1:40:43.360 --> 1:40:44.640
+ I just admire the guy.
+
+1:40:46.040 --> 1:40:47.400
+ He's legit.
+
+1:40:47.400 --> 1:40:48.960
+ When you drive a car through the desert
+
+1:40:48.960 --> 1:40:52.400
+ when everybody thinks it's impossible, that's legit.
+
+1:40:52.400 --> 1:40:53.840
+ And then I also really respect the people
+
+1:40:53.840 --> 1:40:55.680
+ who are like writing the infrastructure of the world,
+
+1:40:55.680 --> 1:40:57.360
+ like the Linus Torvalds and the Chris Ladin.
+
+1:40:57.360 --> 1:40:59.080
+ Oh yeah, they were doing the real work.
+
+1:40:59.080 --> 1:41:00.800
+ I know they're doing the real work.
+
+1:41:02.000 --> 1:41:03.760
+ Having talked to Chris Ladin,
+
+1:41:03.760 --> 1:41:05.680
+ you realize, especially when they're humble,
+
+1:41:05.680 --> 1:41:07.680
+ it's like, you realize, oh, you guys,
+
+1:41:07.680 --> 1:41:09.640
+ we're just using your...
+
+1:41:09.640 --> 1:41:10.480
+ Oh yeah.
+
+1:41:10.480 --> 1:41:11.520
+ All the hard work that you did.
+
+1:41:11.520 --> 1:41:13.120
+ Yeah, that's incredible.
+
+1:41:13.120 --> 1:41:17.160
+ What do you think, Mr. Anthony Lewandowski?
+
+1:41:18.440 --> 1:41:21.640
+ What do you, he's a, he's another mad genius.
+
+1:41:21.640 --> 1:41:22.480
+ Sharp guy.
+
+1:41:22.480 --> 1:41:23.320
+ Oh yeah.
+
+1:41:23.320 --> 1:41:27.640
+ What, do you think he might long term become a competitor?
+
+1:41:27.640 --> 1:41:28.840
+ Oh, to comma?
+
+1:41:28.840 --> 1:41:32.400
+ Well, so I think that he has the other right approach.
+
+1:41:32.400 --> 1:41:35.280
+ I think that right now, there's two right approaches.
+
+1:41:35.280 --> 1:41:37.680
+ One is what we're doing and one is what he's doing.
+
+1:41:37.680 --> 1:41:39.800
+ Can you describe, I think it's called Pronto AI,
+
+1:41:39.800 --> 1:41:42.360
+ he's starting using, do you know what the approach is?
+
+1:41:42.360 --> 1:41:43.200
+ I actually don't know.
+
+1:41:43.200 --> 1:41:45.040
+ Embark is also doing the same sort of thing.
+
+1:41:45.040 --> 1:41:47.280
+ The idea is almost that you want to,
+
+1:41:47.280 --> 1:41:51.800
+ so if you're, I can't partner with Honda and Toyota.
+
+1:41:51.800 --> 1:41:56.800
+ Honda and Toyota are like 400,000 person companies.
+
+1:41:57.600 --> 1:41:59.400
+ It's not even a company at that point.
+
+1:41:59.400 --> 1:42:01.400
+ Like I don't think of it like, I don't personify it.
+
+1:42:01.400 --> 1:42:06.400
+ I think of it like an object, but a trucker drives for a fleet.
+
+1:42:07.120 --> 1:42:10.280
+ Maybe that has like, some truckers are independent.
+
+1:42:10.280 --> 1:42:12.080
+ Some truckers drive for fleets with a hundred trucks.
+
+1:42:12.080 --> 1:42:14.960
+ There are tons of independent trucking companies out there.
+
+1:42:14.960 --> 1:42:18.120
+ Start a trucking company and drive your costs down
+
+1:42:18.120 --> 1:42:23.120
+ or figure out how to drive down the cost of trucking.
+
+1:42:23.760 --> 1:42:26.560
+ Another company that I really respect is Nauto.
+
+1:42:26.560 --> 1:42:28.320
+ Actually, I respect their business model.
+
+1:42:28.320 --> 1:42:31.560
+ Nauto sells a driver monitoring camera
+
+1:42:31.560 --> 1:42:33.920
+ and they sell it to fleet owners.
+
+1:42:33.920 --> 1:42:38.920
+ If I owned a fleet of cars and I could pay 40 bucks a month
+
+1:42:39.120 --> 1:42:41.280
+ to monitor my employees,
+
+1:42:42.400 --> 1:42:45.520
+ this is gonna like reduces accidents 18%.
+
+1:42:45.520 --> 1:42:48.960
+ It's so like that in the space,
+
+1:42:48.960 --> 1:42:52.000
+ that is like the business model that I like most respect
+
+1:42:53.400 --> 1:42:55.360
+ because they're creating value today.
+
+1:42:55.360 --> 1:42:57.840
+ Yeah, which is, that's a huge one.
+
+1:42:57.840 --> 1:42:59.800
+ How do we create value today with some of this?
+
+1:42:59.800 --> 1:43:01.680
+ And the length keeping thing is huge.
+
+1:43:01.680 --> 1:43:03.800
+ And it sounds like you're creeping in
+
+1:43:03.800 --> 1:43:06.680
+ or full steam ahead on the drive of monitoring too.
+
+1:43:06.680 --> 1:43:09.240
+ Which I think actually where the short term value,
+
+1:43:09.240 --> 1:43:10.480
+ if you can get right.
+
+1:43:10.480 --> 1:43:12.800
+ I still, I'm not a huge fan of the statement
+
+1:43:12.800 --> 1:43:15.120
+ that everything is to have drive of monitoring.
+
+1:43:15.120 --> 1:43:16.120
+ I agree with that completely,
+
+1:43:16.120 --> 1:43:18.680
+ but that statement usually misses the point
+
+1:43:18.680 --> 1:43:21.920
+ that to get the experience of it right is not trivial.
+
+1:43:21.920 --> 1:43:22.840
+ Oh, no, not at all.
+
+1:43:22.840 --> 1:43:25.280
+ In fact, like, so right now we have,
+
+1:43:25.280 --> 1:43:28.480
+ I think the timeout depends on speed of the car,
+
+1:43:29.560 --> 1:43:32.520
+ but we want to depend on like the scene state.
+
+1:43:32.520 --> 1:43:35.440
+ If you're on like an empty highway,
+
+1:43:35.440 --> 1:43:37.680
+ it's very different if you don't pay attention
+
+1:43:37.680 --> 1:43:40.600
+ than if like you're like coming up to a traffic light.
+
+1:43:42.040 --> 1:43:45.720
+ And long term, it should probably learn from the driver
+
+1:43:45.720 --> 1:43:48.120
+ because that's to do, I watched a lot of video.
+
+1:43:48.120 --> 1:43:49.480
+ We've built a smartphone detector
+
+1:43:49.480 --> 1:43:51.520
+ just to analyze how people are using smartphones
+
+1:43:51.520 --> 1:43:53.400
+ and people are using it very differently.
+
+1:43:53.400 --> 1:43:57.760
+ And there's this, it's a texting styles.
+
+1:43:57.760 --> 1:44:00.320
+ We haven't watched nearly enough of the videos.
+
+1:44:00.320 --> 1:44:01.800
+ We haven't, I got millions of miles
+
+1:44:01.800 --> 1:44:02.960
+ of people driving cars.
+
+1:44:02.960 --> 1:44:05.960
+ In this moment, I spent a large fraction of my time
+
+1:44:05.960 --> 1:44:10.880
+ just watching videos because it's never fails to learn.
+
+1:44:10.880 --> 1:44:13.480
+ Like I've never failed from a video watching session
+
+1:44:13.480 --> 1:44:15.400
+ to learn something I didn't know before.
+
+1:44:15.400 --> 1:44:19.640
+ In fact, I usually, like when I eat lunch, I'll sit,
+
+1:44:19.640 --> 1:44:20.680
+ especially when the weather is good
+
+1:44:20.680 --> 1:44:22.080
+ and just watch pedestrians.
+
+1:44:22.080 --> 1:44:26.400
+ With an eye to understand like from a computer vision eye,
+
+1:44:26.400 --> 1:44:29.280
+ just to see, can this model, can you predict
+
+1:44:29.280 --> 1:44:30.480
+ what are the decisions made?
+
+1:44:30.480 --> 1:44:33.040
+ And there's so many things that we don't understand.
+
+1:44:33.040 --> 1:44:34.760
+ This is what I mean about state vector.
+
+1:44:34.760 --> 1:44:37.880
+ Yeah, it's, I'm trying to always think like,
+
+1:44:37.880 --> 1:44:40.280
+ because I'm understanding in my human brain,
+
+1:44:40.280 --> 1:44:42.000
+ how do we convert that into,
+
+1:44:43.000 --> 1:44:44.960
+ how hard is the learning problem here?
+
+1:44:44.960 --> 1:44:46.960
+ I guess is the fundamental question.
+
+1:44:46.960 --> 1:44:51.800
+ So something that's from a hacking perspective,
+
+1:44:51.800 --> 1:44:54.200
+ this is always comes up, especially with folks.
+
+1:44:54.200 --> 1:44:56.480
+ Well, first, the most popular question is
+
+1:44:56.480 --> 1:44:58.440
+ the trolley problem, right?
+
+1:44:58.440 --> 1:45:01.960
+ So that's not a sort of a serious problem.
+
+1:45:01.960 --> 1:45:05.000
+ There are some ethical questions, I think that arise.
+
+1:45:06.080 --> 1:45:09.600
+ Maybe you wanna, do you think there's any ethical,
+
+1:45:09.600 --> 1:45:11.280
+ serious ethical questions?
+
+1:45:11.280 --> 1:45:14.080
+ We have a solution to the trolley problem at com.ai.
+
+1:45:14.080 --> 1:45:15.920
+ Well, so there is actually an alert
+
+1:45:15.920 --> 1:45:18.000
+ in our code, ethical dilemma detected.
+
+1:45:18.000 --> 1:45:18.960
+ It's not triggered yet.
+
+1:45:18.960 --> 1:45:21.040
+ We don't know how yet to detect the ethical dilemmas,
+
+1:45:21.040 --> 1:45:22.360
+ but we're a level two system.
+
+1:45:22.360 --> 1:45:23.760
+ So we're going to disengage and leave
+
+1:45:23.760 --> 1:45:25.320
+ that decision to the human.
+
+1:45:25.320 --> 1:45:26.680
+ You're such a troll.
+
+1:45:26.680 --> 1:45:28.760
+ No, but the trolley problem deserves to be trolled.
+
+1:45:28.760 --> 1:45:32.040
+ Yeah, that's a beautiful answer actually.
+
+1:45:32.040 --> 1:45:34.440
+ I know, I gave it to someone who was like,
+
+1:45:34.440 --> 1:45:36.600
+ sometimes people ask like you asked about the trolley problem.
+
+1:45:36.600 --> 1:45:38.080
+ Like you can have a kind of discussion about it.
+
+1:45:38.080 --> 1:45:39.720
+ Like when you get someone who's like really like
+
+1:45:39.720 --> 1:45:43.600
+ earnest about it, because it's the kind of thing where
+
+1:45:43.600 --> 1:45:45.600
+ if you ask a bunch of people in an office,
+
+1:45:45.600 --> 1:45:48.360
+ whether we should use a SQL stack or no SQL stack,
+
+1:45:48.360 --> 1:45:50.600
+ if they're not that technical, they have no opinion.
+
+1:45:50.600 --> 1:45:52.360
+ But if you ask them what color they want to paint the office,
+
+1:45:52.360 --> 1:45:54.040
+ everyone has an opinion on that.
+
+1:45:54.040 --> 1:45:56.040
+ And that's why the trolley problem is.
+
+1:45:56.040 --> 1:45:57.280
+ I mean, that's a beautiful answer.
+
+1:45:57.280 --> 1:45:59.240
+ Yeah, we're able to detect the problem
+
+1:45:59.240 --> 1:46:01.960
+ and we're able to pass it on to the human.
+
+1:46:01.960 --> 1:46:03.760
+ Wow, I've never heard anyone say it.
+
+1:46:03.760 --> 1:46:06.160
+ This is your nice escape route.
+
+1:46:06.160 --> 1:46:07.320
+ Okay, but...
+
+1:46:07.320 --> 1:46:08.680
+ Proud level two.
+
+1:46:08.680 --> 1:46:09.760
+ I'm proud level two.
+
+1:46:09.760 --> 1:46:10.600
+ I love it.
+
+1:46:10.600 --> 1:46:14.400
+ So the other thing that people have some concern about
+
+1:46:14.400 --> 1:46:17.800
+ with AI in general is hacking.
+
+1:46:17.800 --> 1:46:21.400
+ So how hard is it, do you think, to hack an autonomous vehicle
+
+1:46:21.400 --> 1:46:25.000
+ either through physical access or through the more sort of
+
+1:46:25.000 --> 1:46:28.240
+ popular now, these adversarial examples on the sensors?
+
+1:46:28.240 --> 1:46:30.720
+ Okay, the adversarial examples one.
+
+1:46:30.720 --> 1:46:32.320
+ You want to see some adversarial examples
+
+1:46:32.320 --> 1:46:34.880
+ that affect humans, right?
+
+1:46:34.880 --> 1:46:38.040
+ Oh, well, there used to be a stop sign here,
+
+1:46:38.040 --> 1:46:40.000
+ but I put a black bag over the stop sign
+
+1:46:40.000 --> 1:46:43.520
+ and then people ran it, adversarial, right?
+
+1:46:43.520 --> 1:46:48.360
+ Like, there's tons of human adversarial examples too.
+
+1:46:48.360 --> 1:46:52.240
+ The question in general about security, if you saw,
+
+1:46:52.240 --> 1:46:54.040
+ something just came out today and there are always
+
+1:46:54.040 --> 1:46:57.560
+ such hypey headlines about how navigate on autopilot
+
+1:46:57.560 --> 1:47:00.960
+ was fooled by a GPS spoof to take an exit.
+
+1:47:00.960 --> 1:47:01.800
+ Right.
+
+1:47:01.800 --> 1:47:03.920
+ At least that's all they could do was take an exit.
+
+1:47:03.920 --> 1:47:06.720
+ If your car is relying on GPS in order
+
+1:47:06.720 --> 1:47:10.240
+ to have a safe driving policy, you're doing something wrong.
+
+1:47:10.240 --> 1:47:12.680
+ If you're relying, and this is why V2V
+
+1:47:12.680 --> 1:47:17.680
+ is such a terrible idea, V2V now relies on both parties
+
+1:47:18.160 --> 1:47:19.800
+ getting communication right.
+
+1:47:19.800 --> 1:47:24.800
+ This is not even, so I think of safety,
+
+1:47:26.080 --> 1:47:28.480
+ security is like a special case of safety, right?
+
+1:47:28.480 --> 1:47:31.880
+ Safety is like we put a little, you know,
+
+1:47:31.880 --> 1:47:33.360
+ piece of caution tape around the hole
+
+1:47:33.360 --> 1:47:35.560
+ so that people won't walk into it by accident.
+
+1:47:35.560 --> 1:47:38.240
+ Security is like put a 10 foot fence around the hole
+
+1:47:38.240 --> 1:47:40.120
+ so you actually physically cannot climb into it
+
+1:47:40.120 --> 1:47:42.360
+ with barbed wire on the top and stuff, right?
+
+1:47:42.360 --> 1:47:44.560
+ So like if you're designing systems
+
+1:47:44.560 --> 1:47:47.440
+ that are like unreliable, they're definitely not secure.
+
+1:47:48.440 --> 1:47:51.240
+ Your car should always do something safe
+
+1:47:51.240 --> 1:47:53.400
+ using its local sensors.
+
+1:47:53.400 --> 1:47:55.240
+ And then the local sensor should be hardwired.
+
+1:47:55.240 --> 1:47:57.400
+ And then could somebody hack into your can boss
+
+1:47:57.400 --> 1:47:58.640
+ and turn your steering wheel on your brakes?
+
+1:47:58.640 --> 1:48:01.240
+ Yes, but they could do it before comma AI too, so.
+
+1:48:02.800 --> 1:48:04.680
+ Let's think out of the box and some things.
+
+1:48:04.680 --> 1:48:09.400
+ So do you think teleoperation has a role in any of this?
+
+1:48:09.400 --> 1:48:13.880
+ So remotely stepping in and controlling the cars?
+
+1:48:13.880 --> 1:48:18.880
+ No, I think that if the safety operation
+
+1:48:21.320 --> 1:48:26.160
+ by design requires a constant link to the cars,
+
+1:48:26.160 --> 1:48:27.560
+ I think it doesn't work.
+
+1:48:27.560 --> 1:48:31.080
+ So that's the same argument used for V2I, V2V.
+
+1:48:31.080 --> 1:48:34.280
+ Well, there's a lot of non safety critical stuff
+
+1:48:34.280 --> 1:48:35.120
+ you can do with V2I.
+
+1:48:35.120 --> 1:48:37.440
+ I like V2I, I like V2I way more than V2V
+
+1:48:37.440 --> 1:48:39.280
+ because V2I is already like,
+
+1:48:39.280 --> 1:48:40.880
+ I already have internet in the car, right?
+
+1:48:40.880 --> 1:48:43.280
+ There's a lot of great stuff you can do with V2I.
+
+1:48:44.280 --> 1:48:46.320
+ Like for example, you can,
+
+1:48:46.320 --> 1:48:48.880
+ well, where I already have V2V, Waze is V2I, right?
+
+1:48:48.880 --> 1:48:50.520
+ Waze can route me around traffic jams.
+
+1:48:50.520 --> 1:48:52.760
+ That's a great example of V2I.
+
+1:48:52.760 --> 1:48:54.440
+ And then, okay, the car automatically talks
+
+1:48:54.440 --> 1:48:55.800
+ to that same service, like it works.
+
+1:48:55.800 --> 1:48:56.800
+ So it's improving the experience,
+
+1:48:56.800 --> 1:48:59.480
+ but it's not a fundamental fallback for safety.
+
+1:48:59.480 --> 1:49:04.160
+ No, if any of your things that require
+
+1:49:04.160 --> 1:49:07.480
+ wireless communication are more than QM,
+
+1:49:07.480 --> 1:49:10.640
+ like have an ASL rating, you shouldn't.
+
+1:49:10.640 --> 1:49:14.200
+ You previously said that life is work
+
+1:49:15.440 --> 1:49:17.480
+ and that you don't do anything to relax.
+
+1:49:17.480 --> 1:49:20.800
+ So how do you think about hard work?
+
+1:49:20.800 --> 1:49:22.200
+ Well, what is it?
+
+1:49:22.200 --> 1:49:24.720
+ What do you think it takes to accomplish great things?
+
+1:49:24.720 --> 1:49:25.840
+ And there's a lot of people saying
+
+1:49:25.840 --> 1:49:28.280
+ that there needs to be some balance.
+
+1:49:28.280 --> 1:49:29.600
+ You know, you need to,
+
+1:49:29.600 --> 1:49:31.120
+ in order to accomplish great things,
+
+1:49:31.120 --> 1:49:32.200
+ you need to take some time off,
+
+1:49:32.200 --> 1:49:34.640
+ you need to reflect and so on.
+
+1:49:34.640 --> 1:49:37.840
+ And then some people are just insanely working,
+
+1:49:37.840 --> 1:49:39.640
+ burning the candle on both ends.
+
+1:49:39.640 --> 1:49:41.360
+ How do you think about that?
+
+1:49:41.360 --> 1:49:43.400
+ I think I was trolling in the Suraj interview
+
+1:49:43.400 --> 1:49:45.600
+ when I said that off camera,
+
+1:49:45.600 --> 1:49:47.240
+ but right before I spoke to a little bit of weed,
+
+1:49:47.240 --> 1:49:49.800
+ like, you know, come on, this is a joke, right?
+
+1:49:49.800 --> 1:49:50.880
+ Like I do nothing to relax.
+
+1:49:50.880 --> 1:49:52.560
+ Look where I am, I'm at a party, right?
+
+1:49:52.560 --> 1:49:53.960
+ Yeah, yeah, yeah, sure.
+
+1:49:53.960 --> 1:49:55.200
+ That's true.
+
+1:49:55.200 --> 1:49:58.040
+ So no, no, of course I don't.
+
+1:49:58.040 --> 1:49:59.800
+ When I say that life is work though,
+
+1:49:59.800 --> 1:50:01.960
+ I mean that like, I think that
+
+1:50:01.960 --> 1:50:04.200
+ what gives my life meaning is work.
+
+1:50:04.200 --> 1:50:05.720
+ I don't mean that every minute of the day
+
+1:50:05.720 --> 1:50:06.560
+ you should be working.
+
+1:50:06.560 --> 1:50:08.000
+ I actually think this is not the best way
+
+1:50:08.000 --> 1:50:09.800
+ to maximize results.
+
+1:50:09.800 --> 1:50:12.040
+ I think that if you're working 12 hours a day,
+
+1:50:12.040 --> 1:50:14.920
+ you should be working smarter and not harder.
+
+1:50:14.920 --> 1:50:17.880
+ Well, so it gives work gives you meaning
+
+1:50:17.880 --> 1:50:20.520
+ for some people, other sorts of meaning
+
+1:50:20.520 --> 1:50:24.560
+ is personal relationships, like family and so on.
+
+1:50:24.560 --> 1:50:27.200
+ You've also in that interview with Suraj
+
+1:50:27.200 --> 1:50:30.720
+ or the trolling mentioned that one of the things
+
+1:50:30.720 --> 1:50:33.400
+ you look forward to in the future is AI girlfriends.
+
+1:50:33.400 --> 1:50:34.360
+ Yes.
+
+1:50:34.360 --> 1:50:38.800
+ So that's a topic that I'm very much fascinated by,
+
+1:50:38.800 --> 1:50:39.840
+ not necessarily girlfriends,
+
+1:50:39.840 --> 1:50:41.880
+ but just forming a deep connection with AI.
+
+1:50:41.880 --> 1:50:42.960
+ Yeah.
+
+1:50:42.960 --> 1:50:44.400
+ What kind of system do you imagine
+
+1:50:44.400 --> 1:50:46.240
+ when you say AI girlfriend,
+
+1:50:46.240 --> 1:50:47.800
+ whether you were trolling or not?
+
+1:50:47.800 --> 1:50:49.720
+ No, that one I'm very serious about.
+
+1:50:49.720 --> 1:50:52.360
+ And I'm serious about that on both a shallow level
+
+1:50:52.360 --> 1:50:53.680
+ and a deep level.
+
+1:50:53.680 --> 1:50:55.720
+ I think that VR brothels are coming soon
+
+1:50:55.720 --> 1:50:57.800
+ and are gonna be really cool.
+
+1:50:57.800 --> 1:50:59.760
+ It's not cheating if it's a robot.
+
+1:50:59.760 --> 1:51:01.080
+ I see the slogan already.
+
+1:51:01.080 --> 1:51:04.320
+ Um, but...
+
+1:51:04.320 --> 1:51:06.200
+ There's a, I don't know if you've watched
+
+1:51:06.200 --> 1:51:08.320
+ or just watched the Black Mirror episode.
+
+1:51:08.320 --> 1:51:09.320
+ I watched the latest one, yeah.
+
+1:51:09.320 --> 1:51:11.320
+ Yeah, yeah.
+
+1:51:11.320 --> 1:51:13.160
+ Oh, the Ashley 2 one?
+
+1:51:13.160 --> 1:51:15.120
+ Or the...
+
+1:51:15.120 --> 1:51:16.920
+ No, where there's two friends
+
+1:51:16.920 --> 1:51:20.160
+ who were having sex with each other in...
+
+1:51:20.160 --> 1:51:21.240
+ Oh, in the VR game.
+
+1:51:21.240 --> 1:51:23.560
+ In the VR game, it's the two guys,
+
+1:51:23.560 --> 1:51:26.720
+ but one of them was a female, yeah.
+
+1:51:26.720 --> 1:51:27.560
+ Yeah, the...
+
+1:51:27.560 --> 1:51:29.560
+ Which is another mind blowing concept.
+
+1:51:29.560 --> 1:51:33.320
+ That in VR, you don't have to be the form.
+
+1:51:33.320 --> 1:51:37.720
+ You can be two animals having sex, it's weird.
+
+1:51:37.720 --> 1:51:38.560
+ I mean, I'll see how nice
+
+1:51:38.560 --> 1:51:40.280
+ that the software maps the nerve endings, right?
+
+1:51:40.280 --> 1:51:41.600
+ Yeah, it's weird.
+
+1:51:41.600 --> 1:51:44.480
+ I mean, yeah, they sweep a lot of the fascinating,
+
+1:51:44.480 --> 1:51:46.440
+ really difficult technical challenges under the rug,
+
+1:51:46.440 --> 1:51:48.360
+ like assuming it's possible
+
+1:51:48.360 --> 1:51:51.160
+ to do the mapping of the nerve endings, then...
+
+1:51:51.160 --> 1:51:52.000
+ I wish, yeah, I saw that.
+
+1:51:52.000 --> 1:51:53.800
+ The way they did it with the little like stim unit
+
+1:51:53.800 --> 1:51:55.400
+ on the head, that'd be amazing.
+
+1:51:56.800 --> 1:51:58.760
+ So, well, no, no, on a shallow level,
+
+1:51:58.760 --> 1:52:01.640
+ like you could set up like almost a brothel
+
+1:52:01.640 --> 1:52:05.160
+ with like real dolls and Oculus quests,
+
+1:52:05.160 --> 1:52:06.200
+ write some good software.
+
+1:52:06.200 --> 1:52:08.280
+ I think it'd be a cool novelty experience.
+
+1:52:09.280 --> 1:52:11.400
+ But no, on a deeper, like emotional level.
+
+1:52:12.800 --> 1:52:16.960
+ I mean, yeah, I would really like to fall in love
+
+1:52:16.960 --> 1:52:18.120
+ with the machine.
+
+1:52:18.120 --> 1:52:23.120
+ Do you see yourself having a long term relationship
+
+1:52:23.120 --> 1:52:27.520
+ of the kind monogamous relationship that we have now
+
+1:52:27.520 --> 1:52:31.360
+ with the robot, with the AI system, even?
+
+1:52:31.360 --> 1:52:32.680
+ Not even just the robot.
+
+1:52:32.680 --> 1:52:37.680
+ So, I think about maybe my ideal future.
+
+1:52:38.200 --> 1:52:43.200
+ When I was 15, I read Eliezer Yudkowsky's early writings
+
+1:52:44.320 --> 1:52:49.120
+ on the singularity and like that AI
+
+1:52:49.120 --> 1:52:53.040
+ is going to surpass human intelligence massively.
+
+1:52:53.040 --> 1:52:55.480
+ He made some Moore's law based predictions
+
+1:52:55.480 --> 1:52:57.400
+ that I mostly agree with.
+
+1:52:57.400 --> 1:52:59.360
+ And then I really struggled
+
+1:52:59.360 --> 1:53:01.360
+ for the next couple of years of my life.
+
+1:53:01.360 --> 1:53:03.360
+ Like, why should I even bother to learn anything?
+
+1:53:03.360 --> 1:53:06.160
+ It's all gonna be meaningless when the machine show up.
+
+1:53:06.160 --> 1:53:07.000
+ Right.
+
+1:53:07.000 --> 1:53:10.520
+ Well, maybe when I was that young,
+
+1:53:10.520 --> 1:53:12.040
+ I was still a little bit more pure
+
+1:53:12.040 --> 1:53:13.160
+ and really like clung to that.
+
+1:53:13.160 --> 1:53:14.720
+ And then I'm like, well, the machine's ain't here yet.
+
+1:53:14.720 --> 1:53:16.800
+ You know, and I seem to be pretty good at this stuff.
+
+1:53:16.800 --> 1:53:18.520
+ Let's try my best, you know,
+
+1:53:18.520 --> 1:53:20.320
+ like what's the worst that happens?
+
+1:53:20.320 --> 1:53:23.440
+ But the best possible future I see
+
+1:53:23.440 --> 1:53:26.120
+ is me sort of merging with the machine.
+
+1:53:26.120 --> 1:53:28.120
+ And the way that I personify this
+
+1:53:28.120 --> 1:53:30.800
+ is in a longterm and augments relationship with the machine.
+
+1:53:32.160 --> 1:53:33.320
+ Oh, you don't think there's room
+
+1:53:33.320 --> 1:53:35.040
+ for another human in your life
+
+1:53:35.040 --> 1:53:37.440
+ if you really truly merge with another machine?
+
+1:53:38.440 --> 1:53:40.240
+ I mean, I see merging.
+
+1:53:40.240 --> 1:53:44.240
+ I see like the best interface to my brain
+
+1:53:45.520 --> 1:53:48.000
+ is like the same relationship interface
+
+1:53:48.000 --> 1:53:49.320
+ to merge with an AI, right?
+
+1:53:49.320 --> 1:53:51.440
+ What does that merging feel like?
+
+1:53:52.440 --> 1:53:55.320
+ I've seen couples who've been together for a long time
+
+1:53:55.320 --> 1:53:57.840
+ and like, I almost think of them as one person.
+
+1:53:57.840 --> 1:54:01.280
+ Like couples who spend all their time together and...
+
+1:54:01.280 --> 1:54:02.120
+ That's fascinating.
+
+1:54:02.120 --> 1:54:03.320
+ You're actually putting,
+
+1:54:03.320 --> 1:54:05.520
+ what does that merging actually looks like?
+
+1:54:05.520 --> 1:54:07.600
+ It's not just a nice channel.
+
+1:54:07.600 --> 1:54:11.640
+ Like a lot of people imagine it's just an efficient link,
+
+1:54:11.640 --> 1:54:13.800
+ search link to Wikipedia or something.
+
+1:54:13.800 --> 1:54:14.640
+ I don't believe in that.
+
+1:54:14.640 --> 1:54:17.120
+ But it's more, you're saying that there's the same kind of,
+
+1:54:17.120 --> 1:54:19.520
+ the same kind of relationship you have with another human
+
+1:54:19.520 --> 1:54:22.960
+ as a deep relationship is that's what merging looks like.
+
+1:54:22.960 --> 1:54:24.480
+ That's pretty...
+
+1:54:24.480 --> 1:54:26.680
+ I don't believe that link is possible.
+
+1:54:26.680 --> 1:54:28.120
+ I think that that link, so you're like,
+
+1:54:28.120 --> 1:54:30.160
+ oh, I'm gonna download Wikipedia right to my brain.
+
+1:54:30.160 --> 1:54:33.360
+ My reading speed is not limited by my eyes.
+
+1:54:33.360 --> 1:54:36.800
+ My reading speed is limited by my inner processing loop.
+
+1:54:36.800 --> 1:54:38.680
+ And to like bootstrap that
+
+1:54:38.680 --> 1:54:42.440
+ sounds kind of unclear how to do it and horrifying.
+
+1:54:42.440 --> 1:54:46.560
+ But if I am with somebody, and I'll use somebody
+
+1:54:46.560 --> 1:54:51.400
+ who is making a super sophisticated model of me
+
+1:54:51.400 --> 1:54:53.200
+ and then running simulations on that model,
+
+1:54:53.200 --> 1:54:54.120
+ I'm not gonna get into the question
+
+1:54:54.120 --> 1:54:55.880
+ whether the simulations are conscious or not.
+
+1:54:55.880 --> 1:54:58.240
+ I don't really wanna know what it's doing.
+
+1:54:58.240 --> 1:55:01.600
+ But using those simulations to play out hypothetical futures
+
+1:55:01.600 --> 1:55:04.880
+ for me, deciding what things to say to me
+
+1:55:04.880 --> 1:55:08.720
+ to guide me along a path and that's how I envision it.
+
+1:55:08.720 --> 1:55:13.720
+ So on that path to AI of super human level intelligence,
+
+1:55:13.720 --> 1:55:15.680
+ you've mentioned that you believe in the singularity,
+
+1:55:15.680 --> 1:55:17.280
+ that singularity is coming.
+
+1:55:17.280 --> 1:55:20.440
+ Again, could be trolling, could be not, could be part...
+
+1:55:20.440 --> 1:55:21.760
+ All trolling has truth in it.
+
+1:55:21.760 --> 1:55:22.840
+ I don't know what that means anymore.
+
+1:55:22.840 --> 1:55:24.520
+ What is the singularity?
+
+1:55:24.520 --> 1:55:26.720
+ So yeah, so that's really the question.
+
+1:55:26.720 --> 1:55:29.280
+ How many years do you think before the singularity
+
+1:55:29.280 --> 1:55:30.920
+ of what form do you think it will take?
+
+1:55:30.920 --> 1:55:34.200
+ Does that mean fundamental shifts in capabilities of AI?
+
+1:55:34.200 --> 1:55:36.960
+ Does it mean some other kind of ideas?
+
+1:55:36.960 --> 1:55:40.120
+ Maybe that's just my roots, but...
+
+1:55:40.120 --> 1:55:42.920
+ So I can buy a human being's worth of computers
+
+1:55:42.920 --> 1:55:46.000
+ for things worth of compute for like a million bucks a day.
+
+1:55:46.000 --> 1:55:47.800
+ It's about one TPU pod V3.
+
+1:55:47.800 --> 1:55:50.240
+ I want like, I think they claim a hundred pay to flops.
+
+1:55:50.240 --> 1:55:51.080
+ That's being generous.
+
+1:55:51.080 --> 1:55:52.320
+ I think humans are actually more like 20.
+
+1:55:52.320 --> 1:55:53.160
+ So that's like five humans.
+
+1:55:53.160 --> 1:55:54.040
+ That's pretty good.
+
+1:55:54.040 --> 1:55:55.560
+ Google needs to sell their TPUs.
+
+1:55:56.840 --> 1:55:58.640
+ But no, I could buy GPUs.
+
+1:55:58.640 --> 1:56:02.280
+ I could buy a stack of like, I buy 1080TIs,
+
+1:56:02.280 --> 1:56:03.880
+ build data center full of them.
+
+1:56:03.880 --> 1:56:07.280
+ And for a million bucks, I can get a human worth of compute.
+
+1:56:08.160 --> 1:56:12.280
+ But when you look at the total number of flops in the world,
+
+1:56:12.280 --> 1:56:14.400
+ when you look at human flops,
+
+1:56:14.400 --> 1:56:17.040
+ which goes up very, very slowly with the population,
+
+1:56:17.040 --> 1:56:19.760
+ and machine flops, which goes up exponentially,
+
+1:56:19.760 --> 1:56:22.360
+ but it's still nowhere near.
+
+1:56:22.360 --> 1:56:24.040
+ I think that's the key thing
+
+1:56:24.040 --> 1:56:25.880
+ to talk about when the singularity happened.
+
+1:56:25.880 --> 1:56:28.560
+ When most flops in the world are silicon
+
+1:56:28.560 --> 1:56:32.280
+ and not biological, that's kind of the crossing point.
+
+1:56:32.280 --> 1:56:35.480
+ Like they are now the dominant species on the planet.
+
+1:56:35.480 --> 1:56:38.720
+ And just looking at how technology is progressing,
+
+1:56:38.720 --> 1:56:40.360
+ when do you think that could possibly happen?
+
+1:56:40.360 --> 1:56:41.680
+ Do you think it would happen in your lifetime?
+
+1:56:41.680 --> 1:56:43.640
+ Oh yeah, definitely in my lifetime.
+
+1:56:43.640 --> 1:56:44.480
+ I've done the math.
+
+1:56:44.480 --> 1:56:47.560
+ I like 2038 because it's the UNIX timestamp roll over.
+
+1:56:49.920 --> 1:56:51.840
+ Yeah, beautifully put.
+
+1:56:52.680 --> 1:56:57.680
+ So you've said that the meaning of life is to win.
+
+1:56:58.000 --> 1:56:59.560
+ If you look five years into the future,
+
+1:56:59.560 --> 1:57:01.000
+ what does winning look like?
+
+1:57:02.640 --> 1:57:03.720
+ So...
+
+1:57:03.720 --> 1:57:08.720
+ I can go into technical depth to what I mean by that, to win.
+
+1:57:11.720 --> 1:57:12.720
+ It may not mean...
+
+1:57:12.720 --> 1:57:14.400
+ I was criticized for that in the comments.
+
+1:57:14.400 --> 1:57:17.720
+ Like, doesn't this guy want to save the penguins in Antarctica?
+
+1:57:17.720 --> 1:57:20.960
+ Or like, oh man, listen to what I'm saying.
+
+1:57:20.960 --> 1:57:23.720
+ I'm not talking about like I have a yacht or something.
+
+1:57:24.720 --> 1:57:26.720
+ I am an agent.
+
+1:57:26.720 --> 1:57:28.720
+ I am put into this world.
+
+1:57:28.720 --> 1:57:32.720
+ And I don't really know what my purpose is.
+
+1:57:33.720 --> 1:57:36.720
+ But if you're a reinforcement, if you're an intelligent agent
+
+1:57:36.720 --> 1:57:39.720
+ and you're put into a world, what is the ideal thing to do?
+
+1:57:39.720 --> 1:57:41.720
+ Well, the ideal thing, mathematically,
+
+1:57:41.720 --> 1:57:43.720
+ you can go back to like Schmidt Hoover theories about this,
+
+1:57:43.720 --> 1:57:46.720
+ is to build a compressive model of the world.
+
+1:57:46.720 --> 1:57:49.720
+ To build a maximally compressive to explore the world
+
+1:57:49.720 --> 1:57:52.720
+ such that your exploration function maximizes
+
+1:57:52.720 --> 1:57:55.720
+ the derivative of compression of the past.
+
+1:57:55.720 --> 1:57:58.720
+ Schmidt Hoover has a paper about this.
+
+1:57:58.720 --> 1:58:01.720
+ And like, I took that kind of as like a personal goal function.
+
+1:58:02.720 --> 1:58:04.720
+ So what I mean to win, I mean like,
+
+1:58:04.720 --> 1:58:08.720
+ maybe this is religious, but like I think that in the future
+
+1:58:08.720 --> 1:58:10.720
+ I might be given a real purpose.
+
+1:58:10.720 --> 1:58:12.720
+ Or I may decide this purpose myself.
+
+1:58:12.720 --> 1:58:14.720
+ And then at that point, now I know what the game is
+
+1:58:14.720 --> 1:58:15.720
+ and I know how to win.
+
+1:58:15.720 --> 1:58:18.720
+ I think right now I'm still just trying to figure out what the game is.
+
+1:58:18.720 --> 1:58:19.720
+ But once I know...
+
+1:58:20.720 --> 1:58:22.720
+ So you have...
+
+1:58:22.720 --> 1:58:25.720
+ You have imperfect information.
+
+1:58:25.720 --> 1:58:27.720
+ You have a lot of uncertainty about the reward function
+
+1:58:27.720 --> 1:58:28.720
+ and you're discovering it.
+
+1:58:28.720 --> 1:58:29.720
+ Exactly.
+
+1:58:29.720 --> 1:58:30.720
+ But the purpose is...
+
+1:58:30.720 --> 1:58:31.720
+ That's a better way to put it.
+
+1:58:31.720 --> 1:58:33.720
+ The purpose is to maximize it
+
+1:58:33.720 --> 1:58:36.720
+ while you have a lot of uncertainty around it.
+
+1:58:36.720 --> 1:58:38.720
+ And you're both reducing the uncertainty
+
+1:58:38.720 --> 1:58:40.720
+ and maximizing at the same time.
+
+1:58:40.720 --> 1:58:43.720
+ And so that's at the technical level.
+
+1:58:43.720 --> 1:58:44.720
+ What is the...
+
+1:58:44.720 --> 1:58:46.720
+ If you believe in the universal prior,
+
+1:58:46.720 --> 1:58:48.720
+ what is the universal reward function?
+
+1:58:48.720 --> 1:58:50.720
+ That's the better way to put it.
+
+1:58:50.720 --> 1:58:53.720
+ So that win is interesting.
+
+1:58:53.720 --> 1:58:56.720
+ I think I speak for everyone in saying that
+
+1:58:56.720 --> 1:59:01.720
+ I wonder what that reward function is for you.
+
+1:59:01.720 --> 1:59:06.720
+ And I look forward to seeing that in five years and ten years.
+
+1:59:06.720 --> 1:59:09.720
+ I think a lot of people including myself are cheering you on, man.
+
+1:59:09.720 --> 1:59:11.720
+ So I'm happy you exist.
+
+1:59:11.720 --> 1:59:13.720
+ And I wish you the best of luck.
+
+1:59:13.720 --> 1:59:14.720
+ Thanks for talking today, man.
+
+1:59:14.720 --> 1:59:15.720
+ Thank you.
+
+1:59:15.720 --> 1:59:20.720
+ This was a lot of fun.
+