ibnummuhammad
commited on
Commit
•
5505dba
1
Parent(s):
abc88c3
Add adf_test()
Browse files- granger_causality_testing.ipynb +2155 -72
granger_causality_testing.ipynb
CHANGED
@@ -7,7 +7,8 @@
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"import pandas as pd\n",
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-
"import plotly.express as px"
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]
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},
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{
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@@ -25,6 +26,17 @@
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": 3,
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [
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{
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"data": {
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@@ -189,7 +201,7 @@
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"[518 rows x 7 columns]"
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]
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},
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"execution_count":
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"metadata": {},
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"output_type": "execute_result"
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}
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@@ -200,17 +212,17 @@
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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-
"execution_count":
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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-
"df = pd.merge(df_apple[['Date', 'Price']], df_walmart[['Date', 'Price']], on='Date', how='right').rename(columns = {'
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-
"df = df.merge(df_tesla[['Date', 'Price']], on='Date', how='right').rename(columns={'
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count":
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [
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{
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@@ -235,9 +247,9 @@
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" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
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" <th></th>\n",
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" <th>Date</th>\n",
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" <th>
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" <th>
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" <th>
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" </tr>\n",
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" </thead>\n",
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" <tbody>\n",
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@@ -324,23 +336,23 @@
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"</div>"
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],
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"text/plain": [
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" Date
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"0 02/01/2024
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"1 01/01/2024
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"2 12/01/2023
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"3 11/01/2023
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"4 10/01/2023
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".. ...
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-
"159 11/01/2010
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-
"160 10/01/2010
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"161 09/01/2010
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"162 08/01/2010
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-
"163 07/01/2010
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"\n",
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"[164 rows x 4 columns]"
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]
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},
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"execution_count":
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"metadata": {},
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"output_type": "execute_result"
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}
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@@ -351,7 +363,7 @@
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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-
"execution_count":
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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@@ -360,7 +372,7 @@
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count":
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [
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{
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@@ -385,9 +397,9 @@
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" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
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" <th></th>\n",
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" <th>Date</th>\n",
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" <th>
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" <th>
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" <th>
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" </tr>\n",
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" </thead>\n",
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" <tbody>\n",
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@@ -474,23 +486,23 @@
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"</div>"
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],
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"text/plain": [
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" Date
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"0 2024-02-01
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"1 2024-01-01
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"2 2023-12-01
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"3 2023-11-01
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"4 2023-10-01
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".. ...
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"159 2010-11-01
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"160 2010-10-01
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"161 2010-09-01
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"162 2010-08-01
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"163 2010-07-01
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"\n",
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"[164 rows x 4 columns]"
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]
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},
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"execution_count":
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"metadata": {},
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"output_type": "execute_result"
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}
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@@ -501,7 +513,7 @@
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count":
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count":
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [
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{
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" <thead>\n",
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" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
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" <th>company</th>\n",
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" <th>
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" <th>
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" <th>
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" </tr>\n",
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" <tr>\n",
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" <th>Date</th>\n",
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"</div>"
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],
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"text/plain": [
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"company
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"Date
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"2024-02-01
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"2024-01-01
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"2023-12-01
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"2023-11-01
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"2023-10-01
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"...
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"2010-11-01
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"2010-10-01
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"2010-09-01
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"2010-08-01
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"2010-07-01
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"\n",
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"[164 rows x 3 columns]"
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]
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},
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"execution_count":
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"metadata": {},
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"output_type": "execute_result"
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}
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@@ -646,7 +658,7 @@
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count":
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [
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{
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},
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"data": [
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{
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"hovertemplate": "company=
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"legendgroup": "
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"line": {
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"color": "#636efa",
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"dash": "solid"
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"symbol": "circle"
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},
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"mode": "lines",
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"name": "
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"orientation": "v",
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"showlegend": true,
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"type": "scatter",
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"yaxis": "y3"
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},
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{
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"hovertemplate": "company=
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"legendgroup": "
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"line": {
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"color": "#EF553B",
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"dash": "solid"
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"symbol": "circle"
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},
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"mode": "lines",
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"name": "
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"orientation": "v",
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"showlegend": true,
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"type": "scatter",
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"yaxis": "y2"
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},
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{
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"hovertemplate": "company=
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"legendgroup": "
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"line": {
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"color": "#00cc96",
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"dash": "solid"
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"symbol": "circle"
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},
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"mode": "lines",
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"name": "
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"orientation": "v",
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"showlegend": true,
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"type": "scatter",
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{
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"font": {},
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"showarrow": false,
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"text": "company=
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"x": 0.5,
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"xanchor": "center",
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"xref": "paper",
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{
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"font": {},
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"showarrow": false,
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"text": "company=
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"x": 0.5,
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"xanchor": "center",
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"xref": "paper",
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{
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"font": {},
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"showarrow": false,
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"text": "company=
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"x": 0.5,
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"xanchor": "center",
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"xref": "paper",
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"fig.show()"
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]
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},
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|
2642 |
{
|
2643 |
"cell_type": "code",
|
2644 |
"execution_count": null,
|
|
|
7 |
"outputs": [],
|
8 |
"source": [
|
9 |
"import pandas as pd\n",
|
10 |
+
"import plotly.express as px\n",
|
11 |
+
"from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller"
|
12 |
]
|
13 |
},
|
14 |
{
|
|
|
26 |
"cell_type": "code",
|
27 |
"execution_count": 3,
|
28 |
"metadata": {},
|
29 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
30 |
+
"source": [
|
31 |
+
"# df_apple.rename(columns = {'Price':'apple'}, inplace = True)\n",
|
32 |
+
"# df_walmart.rename(columns = {'Price':'walmart'}, inplace = True)\n",
|
33 |
+
"# df_tesla.rename(columns = {'Price':'tesla'}, inplace = True)"
|
34 |
+
]
|
35 |
+
},
|
36 |
+
{
|
37 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
38 |
+
"execution_count": 4,
|
39 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
40 |
"outputs": [
|
41 |
{
|
42 |
"data": {
|
|
|
201 |
"[518 rows x 7 columns]"
|
202 |
]
|
203 |
},
|
204 |
+
"execution_count": 4,
|
205 |
"metadata": {},
|
206 |
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
207 |
}
|
|
|
212 |
},
|
213 |
{
|
214 |
"cell_type": "code",
|
215 |
+
"execution_count": 5,
|
216 |
"metadata": {},
|
217 |
"outputs": [],
|
218 |
"source": [
|
219 |
+
"df = pd.merge(df_apple[['Date', 'Price']], df_walmart[['Date', 'Price']], on='Date', how='right').rename(columns = {'Price_x':'apple', 'Price_y':'walmart'})\n",
|
220 |
+
"df = df.merge(df_tesla[['Date', 'Price']], on='Date', how='right').rename(columns={'Price':'tesla'})"
|
221 |
]
|
222 |
},
|
223 |
{
|
224 |
"cell_type": "code",
|
225 |
+
"execution_count": 6,
|
226 |
"metadata": {},
|
227 |
"outputs": [
|
228 |
{
|
|
|
247 |
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
|
248 |
" <th></th>\n",
|
249 |
" <th>Date</th>\n",
|
250 |
+
" <th>apple</th>\n",
|
251 |
+
" <th>walmart</th>\n",
|
252 |
+
" <th>tesla</th>\n",
|
253 |
" </tr>\n",
|
254 |
" </thead>\n",
|
255 |
" <tbody>\n",
|
|
|
336 |
"</div>"
|
337 |
],
|
338 |
"text/plain": [
|
339 |
+
" Date apple walmart tesla\n",
|
340 |
+
"0 02/01/2024 182.52 175.56 191.97\n",
|
341 |
+
"1 01/01/2024 184.40 165.25 187.29\n",
|
342 |
+
"2 12/01/2023 192.53 157.65 248.48\n",
|
343 |
+
"3 11/01/2023 189.95 155.69 240.08\n",
|
344 |
+
"4 10/01/2023 170.77 163.41 200.84\n",
|
345 |
+
".. ... ... ... ...\n",
|
346 |
+
"159 11/01/2010 11.11 54.09 2.36\n",
|
347 |
+
"160 10/01/2010 10.75 54.17 1.46\n",
|
348 |
+
"161 09/01/2010 10.13 53.52 1.36\n",
|
349 |
+
"162 08/01/2010 8.68 50.14 1.30\n",
|
350 |
+
"163 07/01/2010 9.19 51.19 1.33\n",
|
351 |
"\n",
|
352 |
"[164 rows x 4 columns]"
|
353 |
]
|
354 |
},
|
355 |
+
"execution_count": 6,
|
356 |
"metadata": {},
|
357 |
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
358 |
}
|
|
|
363 |
},
|
364 |
{
|
365 |
"cell_type": "code",
|
366 |
+
"execution_count": 7,
|
367 |
"metadata": {},
|
368 |
"outputs": [],
|
369 |
"source": [
|
|
|
372 |
},
|
373 |
{
|
374 |
"cell_type": "code",
|
375 |
+
"execution_count": 8,
|
376 |
"metadata": {},
|
377 |
"outputs": [
|
378 |
{
|
|
|
397 |
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
|
398 |
" <th></th>\n",
|
399 |
" <th>Date</th>\n",
|
400 |
+
" <th>apple</th>\n",
|
401 |
+
" <th>walmart</th>\n",
|
402 |
+
" <th>tesla</th>\n",
|
403 |
" </tr>\n",
|
404 |
" </thead>\n",
|
405 |
" <tbody>\n",
|
|
|
486 |
"</div>"
|
487 |
],
|
488 |
"text/plain": [
|
489 |
+
" Date apple walmart tesla\n",
|
490 |
+
"0 2024-02-01 182.52 175.56 191.97\n",
|
491 |
+
"1 2024-01-01 184.40 165.25 187.29\n",
|
492 |
+
"2 2023-12-01 192.53 157.65 248.48\n",
|
493 |
+
"3 2023-11-01 189.95 155.69 240.08\n",
|
494 |
+
"4 2023-10-01 170.77 163.41 200.84\n",
|
495 |
+
".. ... ... ... ...\n",
|
496 |
+
"159 2010-11-01 11.11 54.09 2.36\n",
|
497 |
+
"160 2010-10-01 10.75 54.17 1.46\n",
|
498 |
+
"161 2010-09-01 10.13 53.52 1.36\n",
|
499 |
+
"162 2010-08-01 8.68 50.14 1.30\n",
|
500 |
+
"163 2010-07-01 9.19 51.19 1.33\n",
|
501 |
"\n",
|
502 |
"[164 rows x 4 columns]"
|
503 |
]
|
504 |
},
|
505 |
+
"execution_count": 8,
|
506 |
"metadata": {},
|
507 |
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
508 |
}
|
|
|
513 |
},
|
514 |
{
|
515 |
"cell_type": "code",
|
516 |
+
"execution_count": 9,
|
517 |
"metadata": {},
|
518 |
"outputs": [],
|
519 |
"source": [
|
|
|
522 |
},
|
523 |
{
|
524 |
"cell_type": "code",
|
525 |
+
"execution_count": 10,
|
526 |
"metadata": {},
|
527 |
"outputs": [
|
528 |
{
|
|
|
546 |
" <thead>\n",
|
547 |
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
|
548 |
" <th>company</th>\n",
|
549 |
+
" <th>apple</th>\n",
|
550 |
+
" <th>walmart</th>\n",
|
551 |
+
" <th>tesla</th>\n",
|
552 |
" </tr>\n",
|
553 |
" <tr>\n",
|
554 |
" <th>Date</th>\n",
|
|
|
630 |
"</div>"
|
631 |
],
|
632 |
"text/plain": [
|
633 |
+
"company apple walmart tesla\n",
|
634 |
+
"Date \n",
|
635 |
+
"2024-02-01 182.52 175.56 191.97\n",
|
636 |
+
"2024-01-01 184.40 165.25 187.29\n",
|
637 |
+
"2023-12-01 192.53 157.65 248.48\n",
|
638 |
+
"2023-11-01 189.95 155.69 240.08\n",
|
639 |
+
"2023-10-01 170.77 163.41 200.84\n",
|
640 |
+
"... ... ... ...\n",
|
641 |
+
"2010-11-01 11.11 54.09 2.36\n",
|
642 |
+
"2010-10-01 10.75 54.17 1.46\n",
|
643 |
+
"2010-09-01 10.13 53.52 1.36\n",
|
644 |
+
"2010-08-01 8.68 50.14 1.30\n",
|
645 |
+
"2010-07-01 9.19 51.19 1.33\n",
|
646 |
"\n",
|
647 |
"[164 rows x 3 columns]"
|
648 |
]
|
649 |
},
|
650 |
+
"execution_count": 10,
|
651 |
"metadata": {},
|
652 |
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
653 |
}
|
|
|
658 |
},
|
659 |
{
|
660 |
"cell_type": "code",
|
661 |
+
"execution_count": 11,
|
662 |
"metadata": {},
|
663 |
"outputs": [
|
664 |
{
|
|
|
669 |
},
|
670 |
"data": [
|
671 |
{
|
672 |
+
"hovertemplate": "company=apple<br>Date=%{x}<br>value=%{y}<extra></extra>",
|
673 |
+
"legendgroup": "apple",
|
674 |
"line": {
|
675 |
"color": "#636efa",
|
676 |
"dash": "solid"
|
|
|
679 |
"symbol": "circle"
|
680 |
},
|
681 |
"mode": "lines",
|
682 |
+
"name": "apple",
|
683 |
"orientation": "v",
|
684 |
"showlegend": true,
|
685 |
"type": "scatter",
|
|
|
1019 |
"yaxis": "y3"
|
1020 |
},
|
1021 |
{
|
1022 |
+
"hovertemplate": "company=walmart<br>Date=%{x}<br>value=%{y}<extra></extra>",
|
1023 |
+
"legendgroup": "walmart",
|
1024 |
"line": {
|
1025 |
"color": "#EF553B",
|
1026 |
"dash": "solid"
|
|
|
1029 |
"symbol": "circle"
|
1030 |
},
|
1031 |
"mode": "lines",
|
1032 |
+
"name": "walmart",
|
1033 |
"orientation": "v",
|
1034 |
"showlegend": true,
|
1035 |
"type": "scatter",
|
|
|
1369 |
"yaxis": "y2"
|
1370 |
},
|
1371 |
{
|
1372 |
+
"hovertemplate": "company=tesla<br>Date=%{x}<br>value=%{y}<extra></extra>",
|
1373 |
+
"legendgroup": "tesla",
|
1374 |
"line": {
|
1375 |
"color": "#00cc96",
|
1376 |
"dash": "solid"
|
|
|
1379 |
"symbol": "circle"
|
1380 |
},
|
1381 |
"mode": "lines",
|
1382 |
+
"name": "tesla",
|
1383 |
"orientation": "v",
|
1384 |
"showlegend": true,
|
1385 |
"type": "scatter",
|
|
|
1724 |
{
|
1725 |
"font": {},
|
1726 |
"showarrow": false,
|
1727 |
+
"text": "company=tesla",
|
1728 |
"x": 0.5,
|
1729 |
"xanchor": "center",
|
1730 |
"xref": "paper",
|
|
|
1735 |
{
|
1736 |
"font": {},
|
1737 |
"showarrow": false,
|
1738 |
+
"text": "company=walmart",
|
1739 |
"x": 0.5,
|
1740 |
"xanchor": "center",
|
1741 |
"xref": "paper",
|
|
|
1746 |
{
|
1747 |
"font": {},
|
1748 |
"showarrow": false,
|
1749 |
+
"text": "company=apple",
|
1750 |
"x": 0.5,
|
1751 |
"xanchor": "center",
|
1752 |
"xref": "paper",
|
|
|
2651 |
"fig.show()"
|
2652 |
]
|
2653 |
},
|
2654 |
+
{
|
2655 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
2656 |
+
"execution_count": 12,
|
2657 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
2658 |
+
"outputs": [
|
2659 |
+
{
|
2660 |
+
"data": {
|
2661 |
+
"application/vnd.plotly.v1+json": {
|
2662 |
+
"config": {
|
2663 |
+
"plotlyServerURL": "https://plot.ly"
|
2664 |
+
},
|
2665 |
+
"data": [
|
2666 |
+
{
|
2667 |
+
"fillpattern": {
|
2668 |
+
"shape": ""
|
2669 |
+
},
|
2670 |
+
"hovertemplate": "company=apple<br>Date=%{x}<br>value=%{y}<extra></extra>",
|
2671 |
+
"legendgroup": "apple",
|
2672 |
+
"line": {
|
2673 |
+
"color": "#636efa"
|
2674 |
+
},
|
2675 |
+
"marker": {
|
2676 |
+
"symbol": "circle"
|
2677 |
+
},
|
2678 |
+
"mode": "lines",
|
2679 |
+
"name": "apple",
|
2680 |
+
"orientation": "v",
|
2681 |
+
"showlegend": true,
|
2682 |
+
"stackgroup": "1",
|
2683 |
+
"type": "scatter",
|
2684 |
+
"x": [
|
2685 |
+
"2024-02-01T00:00:00",
|
2686 |
+
"2024-01-01T00:00:00",
|
2687 |
+
"2023-12-01T00:00:00",
|
2688 |
+
"2023-11-01T00:00:00",
|
2689 |
+
"2023-10-01T00:00:00",
|
2690 |
+
"2023-09-01T00:00:00",
|
2691 |
+
"2023-08-01T00:00:00",
|
2692 |
+
"2023-07-01T00:00:00",
|
2693 |
+
"2023-06-01T00:00:00",
|
2694 |
+
"2023-05-01T00:00:00",
|
2695 |
+
"2023-04-01T00:00:00",
|
2696 |
+
"2023-03-01T00:00:00",
|
2697 |
+
"2023-02-01T00:00:00",
|
2698 |
+
"2023-01-01T00:00:00",
|
2699 |
+
"2022-12-01T00:00:00",
|
2700 |
+
"2022-11-01T00:00:00",
|
2701 |
+
"2022-10-01T00:00:00",
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2702 |
+
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|
2703 |
+
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|
2704 |
+
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|
2705 |
+
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|
2706 |
+
"2022-05-01T00:00:00",
|
2707 |
+
"2022-04-01T00:00:00",
|
2708 |
+
"2022-03-01T00:00:00",
|
2709 |
+
"2022-02-01T00:00:00",
|
2710 |
+
"2022-01-01T00:00:00",
|
2711 |
+
"2021-12-01T00:00:00",
|
2712 |
+
"2021-11-01T00:00:00",
|
2713 |
+
"2021-10-01T00:00:00",
|
2714 |
+
"2021-09-01T00:00:00",
|
2715 |
+
"2021-08-01T00:00:00",
|
2716 |
+
"2021-07-01T00:00:00",
|
2717 |
+
"2021-06-01T00:00:00",
|
2718 |
+
"2021-05-01T00:00:00",
|
2719 |
+
"2021-04-01T00:00:00",
|
2720 |
+
"2021-03-01T00:00:00",
|
2721 |
+
"2021-02-01T00:00:00",
|
2722 |
+
"2021-01-01T00:00:00",
|
2723 |
+
"2020-12-01T00:00:00",
|
2724 |
+
"2020-11-01T00:00:00",
|
2725 |
+
"2020-10-01T00:00:00",
|
2726 |
+
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|
2727 |
+
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2728 |
+
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|
2729 |
+
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|
2730 |
+
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|
2731 |
+
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2732 |
+
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2733 |
+
"2020-02-01T00:00:00",
|
2734 |
+
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|
2735 |
+
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|
2736 |
+
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|
2737 |
+
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2738 |
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2739 |
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2740 |
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2741 |
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2742 |
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2743 |
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2744 |
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2745 |
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2746 |
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2747 |
+
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|
2748 |
+
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|
2749 |
+
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2750 |
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2751 |
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2752 |
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2753 |
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2754 |
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2755 |
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2756 |
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2757 |
+
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2758 |
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2759 |
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2760 |
+
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2761 |
+
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2762 |
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2763 |
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2764 |
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2766 |
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2767 |
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2768 |
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2769 |
+
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2770 |
+
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2771 |
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2772 |
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2773 |
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2774 |
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2775 |
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2776 |
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2777 |
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2778 |
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2779 |
+
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|
2780 |
+
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|
2781 |
+
"2016-02-01T00:00:00",
|
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0,
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1
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],
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0,
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1
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0,
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1
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4611 |
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],
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4614 |
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4615 |
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4616 |
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4618 |
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0,
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4619 |
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0.2866666666666666
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4620 |
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],
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4621 |
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4622 |
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"text": "value"
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4623 |
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}
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4624 |
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},
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4626 |
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"anchor": "x2",
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4627 |
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4629 |
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4630 |
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],
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}
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4634 |
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},
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4638 |
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4639 |
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0.9999999999999999
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4640 |
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],
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4642 |
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4643 |
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4644 |
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}
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}
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4646 |
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}
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},
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4648 |
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"metadata": {},
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4649 |
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"output_type": "display_data"
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4650 |
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}
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4651 |
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],
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4652 |
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"source": [
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4653 |
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"fig = px.area(df, facet_col='company', facet_col_wrap=1)\n",
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4654 |
+
"fig.update_yaxes(matches=None)\n",
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4655 |
+
"fig.show()"
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4656 |
+
]
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4657 |
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},
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4658 |
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{
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4659 |
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"cell_type": "code",
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4660 |
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"execution_count": 13,
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4661 |
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"metadata": {},
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4662 |
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"outputs": [],
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4663 |
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"source": [
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4664 |
+
"n_obs = 20\n",
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4665 |
+
"df_train, df_test = df[0:-n_obs], df[-n_obs:]"
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4666 |
+
]
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4667 |
+
},
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4668 |
+
{
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4669 |
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"cell_type": "code",
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4670 |
+
"execution_count": 14,
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4671 |
+
"metadata": {},
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4672 |
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"outputs": [],
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4673 |
+
"source": [
|
4674 |
+
"def adf_test(df):\n",
|
4675 |
+
" result = adfuller(df.values)\n",
|
4676 |
+
" print('ADF Statistics: %f' % result[0])\n",
|
4677 |
+
" print('p-value: %f' % result[1])\n",
|
4678 |
+
" print('Critical values:')\n",
|
4679 |
+
" for key, value in result[4].items():\n",
|
4680 |
+
" print('\\t%s: %.3f' % (key, value))"
|
4681 |
+
]
|
4682 |
+
},
|
4683 |
+
{
|
4684 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
4685 |
+
"execution_count": 15,
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4686 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
4687 |
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"outputs": [
|
4688 |
+
{
|
4689 |
+
"name": "stdout",
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4690 |
+
"output_type": "stream",
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4691 |
+
"text": [
|
4692 |
+
"ADF Test: Apple time series\n",
|
4693 |
+
"ADF Statistics: -2.793474\n",
|
4694 |
+
"p-value: 0.059212\n",
|
4695 |
+
"Critical values:\n",
|
4696 |
+
"\t1%: -3.480\n",
|
4697 |
+
"\t5%: -2.883\n",
|
4698 |
+
"\t10%: -2.578\n",
|
4699 |
+
"ADF Test: Walmart time series\n",
|
4700 |
+
"ADF Statistics: -1.407972\n",
|
4701 |
+
"p-value: 0.578448\n",
|
4702 |
+
"Critical values:\n",
|
4703 |
+
"\t1%: -3.478\n",
|
4704 |
+
"\t5%: -2.882\n",
|
4705 |
+
"\t10%: -2.578\n",
|
4706 |
+
"ADF Test: Tesla time series\n",
|
4707 |
+
"ADF Statistics: -1.195298\n",
|
4708 |
+
"p-value: 0.675615\n",
|
4709 |
+
"Critical values:\n",
|
4710 |
+
"\t1%: -3.482\n",
|
4711 |
+
"\t5%: -2.884\n",
|
4712 |
+
"\t10%: -2.579\n"
|
4713 |
+
]
|
4714 |
+
}
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4715 |
+
],
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4716 |
+
"source": [
|
4717 |
+
"print('ADF Test: Apple time series')\n",
|
4718 |
+
"adf_test(df_train['apple'])\n",
|
4719 |
+
"print('ADF Test: Walmart time series')\n",
|
4720 |
+
"adf_test(df_train['walmart'])\n",
|
4721 |
+
"print('ADF Test: Tesla time series')\n",
|
4722 |
+
"adf_test(df_train['tesla'])"
|
4723 |
+
]
|
4724 |
+
},
|
4725 |
{
|
4726 |
"cell_type": "code",
|
4727 |
"execution_count": null,
|