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Mar 12

Hedging Properties of Algorithmic Investment Strategies using Long Short-Term Memory and Time Series models for Equity Indices

This paper proposes a novel approach to hedging portfolios of risky assets when financial markets are affected by financial turmoils. We introduce a completely novel approach to diversification activity not on the level of single assets but on the level of ensemble algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) built based on the prices of these assets. We employ four types of diverse theoretical models (LSTM - Long Short-Term Memory, ARIMA-GARCH - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, momentum, and contrarian) to generate price forecasts, which are then used to produce investment signals in single and complex AIS. In such a way, we are able to verify the diversification potential of different types of investment strategies consisting of various assets (energy commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, or soft commodities) in hedging ensemble AIS built for equity indices (S&P 500 index). Empirical data used in this study cover the period between 2004 and 2022. Our main conclusion is that LSTM-based strategies outperform the other models and that the best diversifier for the AIS built for the S&P 500 index is the AIS built for Bitcoin. Finally, we test the LSTM model for a higher frequency of data (1 hour). We conclude that it outperforms the results obtained using daily data.

hist2RNA: An efficient deep learning architecture to predict gene expression from breast cancer histopathology images

Gene expression can be used to subtype breast cancer with improved prediction of risk of recurrence and treatment responsiveness over that obtained using routine immunohistochemistry (IHC). However, in the clinic, molecular profiling is primarily used for ER+ breast cancer, which is costly, tissue destructive, requires specialized platforms and takes several weeks to obtain a result. Deep learning algorithms can effectively extract morphological patterns in digital histopathology images to predict molecular phenotypes quickly and cost-effectively. We propose a new, computationally efficient approach called hist2RNA inspired by bulk RNA-sequencing techniques to predict the expression of 138 genes (incorporated from six commercially available molecular profiling tests), including luminal PAM50 subtype, from hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stained whole slide images (WSIs). The training phase involves the aggregation of extracted features for each patient from a pretrained model to predict gene expression at the patient level using annotated H&E images from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA, n=335). We demonstrate successful gene prediction on a held-out test set (n = 160, corr = 0.82 across patients, corr = 0.29 across genes) and perform exploratory analysis on an external tissue microarray (TMA) dataset (n = 498) with known IHC and survival information. Our model is able to predict gene expression and luminal PAM50 subtype (Luminal A versus Luminal B) on the TMA dataset with prognostic significance for overall survival in univariate analysis (c-index = 0.56, hazard ratio = 2.16 (95% CI 1.12-3.06), p < 5 x 10-3), and independent significance in multivariate analysis incorporating standard clinicopathological variables (c-index = 0.65, hazard ratio = 1.85 (95% CI 1.30-2.68), p < 5 x 10-3).

FACTIFY3M: A Benchmark for Multimodal Fact Verification with Explainability through 5W Question-Answering

Combating disinformation is one of the burning societal crises -- about 67% of the American population believes that disinformation produces a lot of uncertainty, and 10% of them knowingly propagate disinformation. Evidence shows that disinformation can manipulate democratic processes and public opinion, causing disruption in the share market, panic and anxiety in society, and even death during crises. Therefore, disinformation should be identified promptly and, if possible, mitigated. With approximately 3.2 billion images and 720,000 hours of video shared online daily on social media platforms, scalable detection of multimodal disinformation requires efficient fact verification. Despite progress in automatic text-based fact verification (e.g., FEVER, LIAR), the research community lacks substantial effort in multimodal fact verification. To address this gap, we introduce FACTIFY 3M, a dataset of 3 million samples that pushes the boundaries of the domain of fact verification via a multimodal fake news dataset, in addition to offering explainability through the concept of 5W question-answering. Salient features of the dataset include: (i) textual claims, (ii) ChatGPT-generated paraphrased claims, (iii) associated images, (iv) stable diffusion-generated additional images (i.e., visual paraphrases), (v) pixel-level image heatmap to foster image-text explainability of the claim, (vi) 5W QA pairs, and (vii) adversarial fake news stories.

P-Adapters: Robustly Extracting Factual Information from Language Models with Diverse Prompts

Recent work (e.g. LAMA (Petroni et al., 2019)) has found that the quality of the factual information extracted from Large Language Models (LLMs) depends on the prompts used to query them. This inconsistency is problematic because different users will query LLMs for the same information using different wording, but should receive the same, accurate responses regardless. In this work we aim to address this shortcoming by introducing P-Adapters: lightweight models that sit between the embedding layer and first attention layer of LLMs. They take LLM embeddings as input and output continuous prompts that are used to query the LLM. Additionally, we investigate Mixture of Experts (MoE) models that learn a set of continuous prompts ("experts") and select one to query the LLM. They require a separate classifier trained on human-annotated data to map natural language prompts to the continuous ones. P-Adapters perform comparably to the more complex MoE models in extracting factual information from BERT and RoBERTa while eliminating the need for additional annotations. P-Adapters show between 12-26% absolute improvement in precision and 36-50% absolute improvement in consistency over a baseline of only using natural language queries. Finally, we investigate what makes P-Adapters successful and conclude that a significant factor is access to the LLM's embeddings of the original natural language prompt, particularly the subject of the entity pair being queried.

p-MoD: Building Mixture-of-Depths MLLMs via Progressive Ratio Decay

Despite the remarkable performance of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) across diverse tasks, the substantial training and inference costs impede their advancement. The majority of computation stems from the overwhelming volume of vision tokens processed by the transformer decoder. In this paper, we propose to build efficient MLLMs by leveraging the Mixture-of-Depths (MoD) mechanism, where each transformer decoder layer selects essential vision tokens to process while skipping redundant ones. However, integrating MoD into MLLMs is non-trivial. To address the challenges of training and inference stability as well as limited training data, we adapt the MoD module with two novel designs: tanh-gated weight normalization (TanhNorm) and symmetric token reweighting (STRing). Moreover, we observe that vision tokens exhibit higher redundancy in deeper layer and thus design a progressive ratio decay (PRD) strategy, which gradually reduces the token retention ratio layer by layer, employing a shifted cosine schedule. This crucial design fully unleashes the potential of MoD, significantly boosting the efficiency and performance of our models. To validate the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct extensive experiments with two baseline models across 14 benchmarks. Our model, p-MoD, matches or even surpasses the performance of the baseline models, with only 55.6% TFLOPs and 53.8% KV cache storage during inference, and 77.7% GPU hours during training.

The Simons Observatory: Cryogenic Half Wave Plate Rotation Mechanism for the Small Aperture Telescopes

We present the requirements, design and evaluation of the cryogenic continuously rotating half-wave plate (CHWP) for the Simons Observatory (SO). SO is a cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization experiment at Parque Astron\'{o}mico Atacama in northern Chile that covers a wide range of angular scales using both small (0.42 m) and large (6 m) aperture telescopes. In particular, the small aperture telescopes (SATs) focus on large angular scales for primordial B-mode polarization. To this end, the SATs employ a CHWP to modulate the polarization of the incident light at 8 Hz, suppressing atmospheric 1/f noise and mitigating systematic uncertainties that would otherwise arise due to the differential response of detectors sensitive to orthogonal polarizations. The CHWP consists of a 505 mm diameter achromatic sapphire HWP and a cryogenic rotation mechanism, both of which are cooled down to sim50 K to reduce detector thermal loading. Under normal operation the HWP is suspended by a superconducting magnetic bearing and rotates with a constant 2 Hz frequency, controlled by an electromagnetic synchronous motor. We find that the number of superconductors and magnets that make up the superconducting magnetic bearing are important design parameters, especially for the rotation mechanism's vibration performance. The rotation angle is detected through an angular encoder with a noise level of 0.07 muradmathrm{s}. During a cooldown, the rotor is held in place by a grip-and-release mechanism that serves as both an alignment device and a thermal path. In this paper we provide an overview of the SO SAT CHWP: its requirements, hardware design, and laboratory performance.

Lessons Learned from the 1st ARIEL Machine Learning Challenge: Correcting Transiting Exoplanet Light Curves for Stellar Spots

The last decade has witnessed a rapid growth of the field of exoplanet discovery and characterisation. However, several big challenges remain, many of which could be addressed using machine learning methodology. For instance, the most prolific method for detecting exoplanets and inferring several of their characteristics, transit photometry, is very sensitive to the presence of stellar spots. The current practice in the literature is to identify the effects of spots visually and correct for them manually or discard the affected data. This paper explores a first step towards fully automating the efficient and precise derivation of transit depths from transit light curves in the presence of stellar spots. The methods and results we present were obtained in the context of the 1st Machine Learning Challenge organized for the European Space Agency's upcoming Ariel mission. We first present the problem, the simulated Ariel-like data and outline the Challenge while identifying best practices for organizing similar challenges in the future. Finally, we present the solutions obtained by the top-5 winning teams, provide their code and discuss their implications. Successful solutions either construct highly non-linear (w.r.t. the raw data) models with minimal preprocessing -deep neural networks and ensemble methods- or amount to obtaining meaningful statistics from the light curves, constructing linear models on which yields comparably good predictive performance.

Constraining atmospheric composition from the outflow: helium observations reveal the fundamental properties of two planets straddling the radius gap

TOI-836 is a ~2-3 Gyr K dwarf with an inner super Earth (R=1.7 R_oplus, P=3.8 d) and an outer mini Neptune (R=2.6 R_oplus, P=8.6 d). JWST/NIRSpec 2.8--5.2 mum transmission spectra are flat for both planets. We present Keck/NIRSPEC observations of escaping helium for super-Earth b, which shows no excess absorption in the 1083 nm triplet to deep limits (<0.2%), and mini-Neptune c, which shows strong (0.7%) excess absorption in both visits. These results demonstrate that planet c retains at least some primordial atmosphere, while planet b is consistent with having lost its entire primordial envelope. Self-consistent 1D radiative-hydrodynamic models of planet c reveal that the helium excess absorption signal is highly sensitive to metallicity: its equivalent width collapses by a factor of 13 as metallicity increases from 10x to 100x solar, and by a further factor of 12 as it increases to 200x solar. The observed equivalent width is 88\% the model prediction for 100x metallicity, suggesting an atmospheric metallicity similar to K2-18b and TOI-270d, the first two mini-Neptunes with detected absorption features in JWST transmission spectra. We highlight the helium triplet as a potentially powerful probe of atmospheric composition, with complementary strengths and weaknesses to atmospheric retrievals. The main strength is its extreme sensitivity to metallicity in the scientifically significant range of 10--200x solar, and the main weakness is the enormous model uncertainties in outflow suppression and confinement mechanisms, such as magnetic fields and stellar winds, which can suppress the signal by at least a factor of ~several.

Synthetic Modelling of Polarized Dust Emission in Intermediate-Mass YSOs: I: Constraining the Role of Iron Inclusions and Inelastic Relaxation on Grain Alignment with ALMA Polarization

Iron inclusions embedded inside dust grains play a crucial role in both internal alignment (IA) via Barnett relaxation and external alignment via the MAgnetically Enhanced RAdiative Torque (MRAT) mechanism. Moreover, inelastic relaxation is predicted to dominate over Barnett relaxation in driving the IA of micron-sized and very large grains above 10mu m (VLGs). Yet, a detailed modeling of polarized thermal dust emission from Class 0/I Young Stellar Objects (YSOs) taking into account these effects and their observational constraints is still lacking. In this paper, we update the POLARIS code and use it to perform synthetic dust polarization modeling for MHD simulations of an intermediate-mass YSO. Results will be post-processed with CASA to confront ALMA polarimetric observations. We found that to reproduce the high polarization degree of p sim 5-30% observed in protostellar envelopes by ALMA, micron-sized and VLGs must contain iron inclusions with N_{rm cl} sim 5 - 10^{3} iron atoms per cluster, assuming 30% of iron abundance locked inside dust grains under the cluster form. Inside the inner sim 500 au region, inelastic relaxation must participate in driving the grain internal alignment, and grains must contain larger iron inclusions of N_{rm cl} sim 10^{2}-10^{4} and grow beyond geq 10mu m to reproduce sim 3-10% of dust polarization observed by ALMA. But given such a combination, the internal alignment and MRAT efficiency acting on VLGs still decrease toward the center, inducing the decrease of p(%) with increasing gas density, reaching p sim 1% inside the disk.

Less is More: Reducing Task and Model Complexity for 3D Point Cloud Semantic Segmentation

Whilst the availability of 3D LiDAR point cloud data has significantly grown in recent years, annotation remains expensive and time-consuming, leading to a demand for semi-supervised semantic segmentation methods with application domains such as autonomous driving. Existing work very often employs relatively large segmentation backbone networks to improve segmentation accuracy, at the expense of computational costs. In addition, many use uniform sampling to reduce ground truth data requirements for learning needed, often resulting in sub-optimal performance. To address these issues, we propose a new pipeline that employs a smaller architecture, requiring fewer ground-truth annotations to achieve superior segmentation accuracy compared to contemporary approaches. This is facilitated via a novel Sparse Depthwise Separable Convolution module that significantly reduces the network parameter count while retaining overall task performance. To effectively sub-sample our training data, we propose a new Spatio-Temporal Redundant Frame Downsampling (ST-RFD) method that leverages knowledge of sensor motion within the environment to extract a more diverse subset of training data frame samples. To leverage the use of limited annotated data samples, we further propose a soft pseudo-label method informed by LiDAR reflectivity. Our method outperforms contemporary semi-supervised work in terms of mIoU, using less labeled data, on the SemanticKITTI (59.5@5%) and ScribbleKITTI (58.1@5%) benchmark datasets, based on a 2.3x reduction in model parameters and 641x fewer multiply-add operations whilst also demonstrating significant performance improvement on limited training data (i.e., Less is More).

ClimSim: An open large-scale dataset for training high-resolution physics emulators in hybrid multi-scale climate simulators

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore's Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res, https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res, and https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res_aqua-planet) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim) are released openly to support the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations for the benefit of science and society.

ExoMiner++ on TESS with Transfer Learning from Kepler: Transit Classification and Vetting Catalog for 2-min Data

We present ExoMiner++, an enhanced deep learning model that builds on the success of ExoMiner to improve transit signal classification in 2-minute TESS data. ExoMiner++ incorporates additional diagnostic inputs, including periodogram, flux trend, difference image, unfolded flux, and spacecraft attitude control data, all of which are crucial for effectively distinguishing transit signals from more challenging sources of false positives. To further enhance performance, we leverage transfer learning from high-quality labeled data from the Kepler space telescope, mitigating the impact of TESS's noisier and more ambiguous labels. ExoMiner++ achieves high accuracy across various classification and ranking metrics, significantly narrowing the search space for follow-up investigations to confirm new planets. To serve the exoplanet community, we introduce new TESS catalogs containing ExoMiner++ classifications and confidence scores for each transit signal. Among the 147,568 unlabeled TCEs, ExoMiner++ identifies 7,330 as planet candidates, with the remainder classified as false positives. These 7,330 planet candidates correspond to 1,868 existing TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs), 69 Community TESS Objects of Interest (CTOIs), and 50 newly introduced CTOIs. 1,797 out of the 2,506 TOIs previously labeled as planet candidates in ExoFOP are classified as planet candidates by ExoMiner++. This reduction in plausible candidates combined with the excellent ranking quality of ExoMiner++ allows the follow-up efforts to be focused on the most likely candidates, increasing the overall planet yield.

The Tale of Two Telescopes: How Hubble Uniquely Complements the James Webb Space Telescope: Galaxies

In this paper, we present a simple but compelling argument, focusing on galaxy science, for preserving the main imagers and operational modes of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) for as long as is technically feasible. While star-formation started at redshifts zgtrsim10-13, when the universe was less than 300-500 Myr old, the CSFH did not peak until zsimeq1.9, and has steadily declined since that time. Hence, at least half of all stars in the universe formed in the era where HST provides its unique rest-frame UV view of unobscured young, massive stars tracing cosmic star-formation. By rendering a subset of the 556.3 hours of available HST images in 12 filters of the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (HUDF) in an appropriate mix of colors, we illustrate the unique capabilities of HST for galaxy science emphasizing that rest-frame UV-optical wavelength range. We then contrast this with the 52.7 publicly available hours of JWST/NIRCam images in 8 filters of the same HUDF area from the JADES project, rendering these at the redder near-IR wavelengths to illustrate the unique capabilities of JWST to detect older stellar populations at higher redshifts, as well as very dusty stellar populations and Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). HST uniquely probes (unobscured) young, hot, massive stars in galaxies, while JWST reveals more advanced stages of older stellar populations, as well as relatively short-lived phases where galaxies produce and shed a lot of dust from intense star-formation, and the very high redshift universe (zgtrsim10-11) not accessible by HST. We conclude that HST and JWST are highly complementary facilities that took decades to build to ensure decades of operation. To maximize return on investment on both HST and JWST, ways will need to be found to operate HST imaging instruments in all relevant modes for as long as possible into the JWST mission.

Radii, masses, and transit-timing variations of the three-planet system orbiting the naked-eye star TOI-396

TOI-396 is an F6V star (Vapprox6.4) orbited by three transiting planets. The orbital periods of the two innermost planets are close to the 5:3 commensurability (P_b sim3.6 d and P_c sim6.0 d). To measure the masses of the three planets, refine their radii, and investigate whether planets b and c are in MMR, we carried out HARPS RV observations and retrieved photometric data from TESS. We extracted the RVs via a skew-normal fit onto the HARPS CCFs and performed an MCMC joint analysis of the Doppler measurements and transit photometry, while employing the breakpoint method to remove stellar activity from the RV time series. We also performed a thorough TTV dynamical analysis of the system. Our analysis confirms that the three planets have similar sizes: R_b=2.004_{-0.047}^{+0.045}R_{oplus}; R_c=1.979_{-0.051}^{+0.054}R_{oplus}; R_d=2.001_{-0.064}^{+0.063}R_{oplus}. For the first time, we have determined the RV masses for TOI-396b and d: M_b=3.55_{-0.96}^{+0.94}M_{oplus} (rho_b=2.44_{-0.68}^{+0.69} g cm^{-3}) and M_d=7.1pm1.6M_{oplus} (rho_d=4.9_{-1.1}^{+1.2} g cm^{-3}). Our results suggest a quite unusual system architecture, with the outermost planet being the densest. The Doppler reflex motion induced by TOI-396c remains undetected in our RV time series, likely due to the proximity of P_c to the star's rotation period (P_{rot}=6.7pm1.3 d). We also discovered that TOI-396b and c display significant TTVs. While the TTV dynamical analysis returns a formally precise mass for TOI-396c (M_{c,dyn}=2.24^{+0.13}_{-0.67}M_{oplus}), the result might not be accurate owing to the poor sampling of the TTV phase. We also conclude that TOI-396b and c are close to but out of the 5:3 MMR. Our numerical simulation suggests TTV semi-amplitudes of up to 5 hours over a temporal baseline of sim5.2 years.

The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) Challenge: Results after 1 Year Follow-up

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

LightSeq: Sequence Level Parallelism for Distributed Training of Long Context Transformers

Increasing the context length of large language models (LLMs) unlocks fundamentally new capabilities, but also significantly increases the memory footprints of training. Previous model-parallel systems such as Megatron-LM partition and compute different attention heads in parallel, resulting in large communication volumes, so they cannot scale beyond the number of attention heads, thereby hindering its adoption. In this paper, we introduce a new approach, LightSeq, for long-context LLMs training. LightSeq has many notable advantages. First, LightSeq partitions over the sequence dimension, hence is agnostic to model architectures and readily applicable for models with varying numbers of attention heads, such as Multi-Head, Multi-Query and Grouped-Query attention. Second, LightSeq not only requires up to 4.7x less communication than Megatron-LM on popular LLMs but also overlaps the communication with computation. To further reduce the training time, LightSeq features a novel gradient checkpointing scheme to bypass an forward computation for memory-efficient attention. We evaluate LightSeq on Llama-7B and its variants with sequence lengths from 32K to 512K. Through comprehensive experiments on single and cross-node training, we show that LightSeq achieves up to 1.24-2.01x end-to-end speedup, and a 2-8x longer sequence length on models with fewer heads, compared to Megatron-LM. Codes will be available at https://github.com/RulinShao/LightSeq.

The Foundation Supernova Survey: Measuring Cosmological Parameters with Supernovae from a Single Telescope

Measurements of the dark energy equation-of-state parameter, w, have been limited by uncertainty in the selection effects and photometric calibration of z<0.1 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). The Foundation Supernova Survey is designed to lower these uncertainties by creating a new sample of z<0.1 SNe Ia observed on the Pan-STARRS system. Here, we combine the Foundation sample with SNe from the Pan-STARRS Medium Deep Survey and measure cosmological parameters with 1,338 SNe from a single telescope and a single, well-calibrated photometric system. For the first time, both the low-z and high-z data are predominantly discovered by surveys that do not target pre-selected galaxies, reducing selection bias uncertainties. The z>0.1 data include 875 SNe without spectroscopic classifications and we show that we can robustly marginalize over CC SN contamination. We measure Foundation Hubble residuals to be fainter than the pre-existing low-z Hubble residuals by 0.046 pm 0.027 mag (stat+sys). By combining the SN Ia data with cosmic microwave background constraints, we find w=-0.938 pm 0.053, consistent with LambdaCDM. With 463 spectroscopically classified SNe Ia alone, we measure w=-0.933pm0.061. Using the more homogeneous and better-characterized Foundation sample gives a 55% reduction in the systematic uncertainty attributed to SN Ia sample selection biases. Although use of just a single photometric system at low and high redshift increases the impact of photometric calibration uncertainties in this analysis, previous low-z samples may have correlated calibration uncertainties that were neglected in past studies. The full Foundation sample will observe up to 800 SNe to anchor the LSST and WFIRST Hubble diagrams.

Merlin: A Vision Language Foundation Model for 3D Computed Tomography

Over 85 million computed tomography (CT) scans are performed annually in the US, of which approximately one quarter focus on the abdomen. Given the current radiologist shortage, there is a large impetus to use artificial intelligence to alleviate the burden of interpreting these complex imaging studies. Prior state-of-the-art approaches for automated medical image interpretation leverage vision language models (VLMs). However, current medical VLMs are generally limited to 2D images and short reports, and do not leverage electronic health record (EHR) data for supervision. We introduce Merlin - a 3D VLM that we train using paired CT scans (6+ million images from 15,331 CTs), EHR diagnosis codes (1.8+ million codes), and radiology reports (6+ million tokens). We evaluate Merlin on 6 task types and 752 individual tasks. The non-adapted (off-the-shelf) tasks include zero-shot findings classification (31 findings), phenotype classification (692 phenotypes), and zero-shot cross-modal retrieval (image to findings and image to impressions), while model adapted tasks include 5-year disease prediction (6 diseases), radiology report generation, and 3D semantic segmentation (20 organs). We perform internal validation on a test set of 5,137 CTs, and external validation on 7,000 clinical CTs and on two public CT datasets (VerSe, TotalSegmentator). Beyond these clinically-relevant evaluations, we assess the efficacy of various network architectures and training strategies to depict that Merlin has favorable performance to existing task-specific baselines. We derive data scaling laws to empirically assess training data needs for requisite downstream task performance. Furthermore, unlike conventional VLMs that require hundreds of GPUs for training, we perform all training on a single GPU.

HyperAttention: Long-context Attention in Near-Linear Time

We present an approximate attention mechanism named HyperAttention to address the computational challenges posed by the growing complexity of long contexts used in Large Language Models (LLMs). Recent work suggests that in the worst-case scenario, quadratic time is necessary unless the entries of the attention matrix are bounded or the matrix has low stable rank. We introduce two parameters which measure: (1) the max column norm in the normalized attention matrix, and (2) the ratio of row norms in the unnormalized attention matrix after detecting and removing large entries. We use these fine-grained parameters to capture the hardness of the problem. Despite previous lower bounds, we are able to achieve a linear time sampling algorithm even when the matrix has unbounded entries or a large stable rank, provided the above parameters are small. HyperAttention features a modular design that easily accommodates integration of other fast low-level implementations, particularly FlashAttention. Empirically, employing Locality Sensitive Hashing (LSH) to identify large entries, HyperAttention outperforms existing methods, giving significant speed improvements compared to state-of-the-art solutions like FlashAttention. We validate the empirical performance of HyperAttention on a variety of different long-context length datasets. For example, HyperAttention makes the inference time of ChatGLM2 50\% faster on 32k context length while perplexity increases from 5.6 to 6.3. On larger context length, e.g., 131k, with causal masking, HyperAttention offers 5-fold speedup on a single attention layer.

Exploring the Effect of Dataset Diversity in Self-Supervised Learning for Surgical Computer Vision

Over the past decade, computer vision applications in minimally invasive surgery have rapidly increased. Despite this growth, the impact of surgical computer vision remains limited compared to other medical fields like pathology and radiology, primarily due to the scarcity of representative annotated data. Whereas transfer learning from large annotated datasets such as ImageNet has been conventionally the norm to achieve high-performing models, recent advancements in self-supervised learning (SSL) have demonstrated superior performance. In medical image analysis, in-domain SSL pretraining has already been shown to outperform ImageNet-based initialization. Although unlabeled data in the field of surgical computer vision is abundant, the diversity within this data is limited. This study investigates the role of dataset diversity in SSL for surgical computer vision, comparing procedure-specific datasets against a more heterogeneous general surgical dataset across three different downstream surgical applications. The obtained results show that using solely procedure-specific data can lead to substantial improvements of 13.8%, 9.5%, and 36.8% compared to ImageNet pretraining. However, extending this data with more heterogeneous surgical data further increases performance by an additional 5.0%, 5.2%, and 2.5%, suggesting that increasing diversity within SSL data is beneficial for model performance. The code and pretrained model weights are made publicly available at https://github.com/TimJaspers0801/SurgeNet.

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE)

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), one of the programs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III), has now completed its systematic, homogeneous spectroscopic survey sampling all major populations of the Milky Way. After a three year observing campaign on the Sloan 2.5-m Telescope, APOGEE has collected a half million high resolution (R~22,500), high S/N (>100), infrared (1.51-1.70 microns) spectra for 146,000 stars, with time series information via repeat visits to most of these stars. This paper describes the motivations for the survey and its overall design---hardware, field placement, target selection, operations---and gives an overview of these aspects as well as the data reduction, analysis and products. An index is also given to the complement of technical papers that describe various critical survey components in detail. Finally, we discuss the achieved survey performance and illustrate the variety of potential uses of the data products by way of a number of science demonstrations, which span from time series analysis of stellar spectral variations and radial velocity variations from stellar companions, to spatial maps of kinematics, metallicity and abundance patterns across the Galaxy and as a function of age, to new views of the interstellar medium, the chemistry of star clusters, and the discovery of rare stellar species. As part of SDSS-III Data Release 12, all of the APOGEE data products are now publicly available.

Suppressing the sample variance of DESI-like galaxy clustering with fast simulations

Ongoing and upcoming galaxy redshift surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey, will observe vast regions of sky and a wide range of redshifts. In order to model the observations and address various systematic uncertainties, N-body simulations are routinely adopted, however, the number of large simulations with sufficiently high mass resolution is usually limited by available computing time. Therefore, achieving a simulation volume with the effective statistical errors significantly smaller than those of the observations becomes prohibitively expensive. In this study, we apply the Convergence Acceleration by Regression and Pooling (CARPool) method to mitigate the sample variance of the DESI-like galaxy clustering in the AbacusSummit simulations, with the assistance of the quasi-N-body simulations FastPM. Based on the halo occupation distribution (HOD) models, we construct different FastPM galaxy catalogs, including the luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars, with their number densities and two-point clustering statistics well matched to those of AbacusSummit. We also employ the same initial conditions between AbacusSummit and FastPM to achieve high cross-correlation, as it is useful in effectively suppressing the variance. Our method of reducing noise in clustering is equivalent to performing a simulation with volume larger by a factor of 5 and 4 for LRGs and ELGs, respectively. We also mitigate the standard deviation of the LRG bispectrum with the triangular configurations k_2=2k_1=0.2 h/Mpc by a factor of 1.6. With smaller sample variance on galaxy clustering, we are able to constrain the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) scale parameters to higher precision. The CARPool method will be beneficial to better constrain the theoretical systematics of BAO, redshift space distortions (RSD) and primordial non-Gaussianity (NG).

Forecasting Thermoacoustic Instabilities in Liquid Propellant Rocket Engines Using Multimodal Bayesian Deep Learning

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Transformers to SSMs: Distilling Quadratic Knowledge to Subquadratic Models

Transformer architectures have become a dominant paradigm for domains like language modeling but suffer in many inference settings due to their quadratic-time self-attention. Recently proposed subquadratic architectures, such as Mamba, have shown promise, but have been pretrained with substantially less computational resources than the strongest Transformer models. In this work, we present a method that is able to distill a pretrained Transformer architecture into alternative architectures such as state space models (SSMs). The key idea to our approach is that we can view both Transformers and SSMs as applying different forms of mixing matrices over the token sequences. We can thus progressively distill the Transformer architecture by matching different degrees of granularity in the SSM: first matching the mixing matrices themselves, then the hidden units at each block, and finally the end-to-end predictions. Our method, called MOHAWK, is able to distill a Mamba-2 variant based on the Phi-1.5 architecture (Phi-Mamba) using only 3B tokens and a hybrid version (Hybrid Phi-Mamba) using 5B tokens. Despite using less than 1% of the training data typically used to train models from scratch, Phi-Mamba boasts substantially stronger performance compared to all past open-source non-Transformer models. MOHAWK allows models like SSMs to leverage computational resources invested in training Transformer-based architectures, highlighting a new avenue for building such models.

An Atlas of Color-selected Quiescent Galaxies at $z>3$ in Public $JWST$ Fields

We present the results of a systematic search for candidate quiescent galaxies in the distant Universe in eleven JWST fields with publicly available observations collected during the first three months of operations and covering an effective sky area of sim145 arcmin^2. We homogeneously reduce the new JWST data and combine them with existing observations from the Hubble,Space,Telescope. We select a robust sample of sim80 candidate quiescent and quenching galaxies at 3 < z < 5 using two methods: (1) based on their rest-frame UVJ colors, and (2) a novel quantitative approach based on Gaussian Mixture Modeling of the NUV-U, U-V, and V-J rest-frame color space, which is more sensitive to recently quenched objects. We measure comoving number densities of massive (M_stargeq 10^{10.6} M_odot) quiescent galaxies consistent with previous estimates relying on ground-based observations, after homogenizing the results in the literature with our mass and redshift intervals. However, we find significant field-to-field variations of the number densities up to a factor of 2-3, highlighting the effect of cosmic variance and suggesting the presence of overdensities of red quiescent galaxies at z>3, as it could be expected for highly clustered massive systems. Importantly, JWST enables the robust identification of quenching/quiescent galaxy candidates at lower masses and higher redshifts than before, challenging standard formation scenarios. All data products, including the literature compilation, are made publicly available.

RadGraph: Extracting Clinical Entities and Relations from Radiology Reports

Extracting structured clinical information from free-text radiology reports can enable the use of radiology report information for a variety of critical healthcare applications. In our work, we present RadGraph, a dataset of entities and relations in full-text chest X-ray radiology reports based on a novel information extraction schema we designed to structure radiology reports. We release a development dataset, which contains board-certified radiologist annotations for 500 radiology reports from the MIMIC-CXR dataset (14,579 entities and 10,889 relations), and a test dataset, which contains two independent sets of board-certified radiologist annotations for 100 radiology reports split equally across the MIMIC-CXR and CheXpert datasets. Using these datasets, we train and test a deep learning model, RadGraph Benchmark, that achieves a micro F1 of 0.82 and 0.73 on relation extraction on the MIMIC-CXR and CheXpert test sets respectively. Additionally, we release an inference dataset, which contains annotations automatically generated by RadGraph Benchmark across 220,763 MIMIC-CXR reports (around 6 million entities and 4 million relations) and 500 CheXpert reports (13,783 entities and 9,908 relations) with mappings to associated chest radiographs. Our freely available dataset can facilitate a wide range of research in medical natural language processing, as well as computer vision and multi-modal learning when linked to chest radiographs.

RoentGen: Vision-Language Foundation Model for Chest X-ray Generation

Multimodal models trained on large natural image-text pair datasets have exhibited astounding abilities in generating high-quality images. Medical imaging data is fundamentally different to natural images, and the language used to succinctly capture relevant details in medical data uses a different, narrow but semantically rich, domain-specific vocabulary. Not surprisingly, multi-modal models trained on natural image-text pairs do not tend to generalize well to the medical domain. Developing generative imaging models faithfully representing medical concepts while providing compositional diversity could mitigate the existing paucity of high-quality, annotated medical imaging datasets. In this work, we develop a strategy to overcome the large natural-medical distributional shift by adapting a pre-trained latent diffusion model on a corpus of publicly available chest x-rays (CXR) and their corresponding radiology (text) reports. We investigate the model's ability to generate high-fidelity, diverse synthetic CXR conditioned on text prompts. We assess the model outputs quantitatively using image quality metrics, and evaluate image quality and text-image alignment by human domain experts. We present evidence that the resulting model (RoentGen) is able to create visually convincing, diverse synthetic CXR images, and that the output can be controlled to a new extent by using free-form text prompts including radiology-specific language. Fine-tuning this model on a fixed training set and using it as a data augmentation method, we measure a 5% improvement of a classifier trained jointly on synthetic and real images, and a 3% improvement when trained on a larger but purely synthetic training set. Finally, we observe that this fine-tuning distills in-domain knowledge in the text-encoder and can improve its representation capabilities of certain diseases like pneumothorax by 25%.

Overview of the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES)

We present an overview of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES), an ambitious program of infrared imaging and spectroscopy in the GOODS-S and GOODS-N deep fields, designed to study galaxy evolution from high redshift to cosmic noon. JADES uses about 770 hours of Cycle 1 guaranteed time largely from the Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) and Near-Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) instrument teams. In GOODS-S, in and around the Hubble Ultra Deep Field and Chandra Deep Field South, JADES produces a deep imaging region of ~45 arcmin^2 with an average of 130 hrs of exposure time spread over 9 NIRCam filters. This is extended at medium depth in GOODS-S and GOODS-N with NIRCam imaging of ~175 arcmin^2 with an average exposure time of 20 hrs spread over 8-10 filters. In both fields, we conduct extensive NIRSpec multi-object spectroscopy, including 2 deep pointings of 55 hrs exposure time, 14 medium pointings of ~12 hrs, and 15 shallower pointings of ~4 hrs, targeting over 5000 HST and JWST-detected faint sources with 5 low, medium, and high-resolution dispersers covering 0.6-5.3 microns. Finally, JADES extends redward via coordinated parallels with the JWST Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI), featuring ~9 arcmin^2 with 43 hours of exposure at 7.7 microns and twice that area with 2-6.5 hours of exposure at 12.8 microns For nearly 30 years, the GOODS-S and GOODS-N fields have been developed as the premier deep fields on the sky; JADES is now providing a compelling start on the JWST legacy in these fields.

Classification Benchmarks for Under-resourced Bengali Language based on Multichannel Convolutional-LSTM Network

Exponential growths of social media and micro-blogging sites not only provide platforms for empowering freedom of expressions and individual voices but also enables people to express anti-social behaviour like online harassment, cyberbullying, and hate speech. Numerous works have been proposed to utilize these data for social and anti-social behaviours analysis, document characterization, and sentiment analysis by predicting the contexts mostly for highly resourced languages such as English. However, there are languages that are under-resources, e.g., South Asian languages like Bengali, Tamil, Assamese, Telugu that lack of computational resources for the NLP tasks. In this paper, we provide several classification benchmarks for Bengali, an under-resourced language. We prepared three datasets of expressing hate, commonly used topics, and opinions for hate speech detection, document classification, and sentiment analysis, respectively. We built the largest Bengali word embedding models to date based on 250 million articles, which we call BengFastText. We perform three different experiments, covering document classification, sentiment analysis, and hate speech detection. We incorporate word embeddings into a Multichannel Convolutional-LSTM (MConv-LSTM) network for predicting different types of hate speech, document classification, and sentiment analysis. Experiments demonstrate that BengFastText can capture the semantics of words from respective contexts correctly. Evaluations against several baseline embedding models, e.g., Word2Vec and GloVe yield up to 92.30%, 82.25%, and 90.45% F1-scores in case of document classification, sentiment analysis, and hate speech detection, respectively during 5-fold cross-validation tests.

Using Large Language Models to Accelerate Communication for Users with Severe Motor Impairments

Finding ways to accelerate text input for individuals with profound motor impairments has been a long-standing area of research. Closing the speed gap for augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) devices such as eye-tracking keyboards is important for improving the quality of life for such individuals. Recent advances in neural networks of natural language pose new opportunities for re-thinking strategies and user interfaces for enhanced text-entry for AAC users. In this paper, we present SpeakFaster, consisting of large language models (LLMs) and a co-designed user interface for text entry in a highly-abbreviated form, allowing saving 57% more motor actions than traditional predictive keyboards in offline simulation. A pilot study with 19 non-AAC participants typing on a mobile device by hand demonstrated gains in motor savings in line with the offline simulation, while introducing relatively small effects on overall typing speed. Lab and field testing on two eye-gaze typing users with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) demonstrated text-entry rates 29-60% faster than traditional baselines, due to significant saving of expensive keystrokes achieved through phrase and word predictions from context-aware LLMs. These findings provide a strong foundation for further exploration of substantially-accelerated text communication for motor-impaired users and demonstrate a direction for applying LLMs to text-based user interfaces.

FLIQS: One-Shot Mixed-Precision Floating-Point and Integer Quantization Search

Quantization has become a mainstream compression technique for reducing model size, computational requirements, and energy consumption for modern deep neural networks (DNNs). With the improved numerical support in recent hardware, including multiple variants of integer and floating point, mixed-precision quantization has become necessary to achieve high-quality results with low model cost. Prior mixed-precision quantization methods have performed a post-training quantization search, which compromises on accuracy, or a differentiable quantization search, which leads to high memory usage from branching. Therefore, we propose the first one-shot mixed-precision quantization search that eliminates the need for retraining in both integer and low-precision floating point models. We evaluate our floating-point and integer quantization search (FLIQS) on multiple convolutional networks and vision transformer models to discover Pareto-optimal models. Our approach discovers models that improve upon uniform precision, manual mixed-precision, and recent integer quantization search methods. With the proposed integer quantization search, we increase the accuracy of ResNet-18 on ImageNet by 1.31% points and ResNet-50 by 0.90% points with equivalent model cost over previous methods. Additionally, for the first time, we explore a novel mixed-precision floating-point search and improve MobileNetV2 by up to 0.98% points compared to prior state-of-the-art FP8 models. Finally, we extend FLIQS to simultaneously search a joint quantization and neural architecture space and improve the ImageNet accuracy by 2.69% points with similar model cost on a MobileNetV2 search space.

Improved Robustness for Deep Learning-based Segmentation of Multi-Center Myocardial Perfusion MRI Datasets Using Data Adaptive Uncertainty-guided Space-time Analysis

Background. Fully automatic analysis of myocardial perfusion MRI datasets enables rapid and objective reporting of stress/rest studies in patients with suspected ischemic heart disease. Developing deep learning techniques that can analyze multi-center datasets despite limited training data and variations in software and hardware is an ongoing challenge. Methods. Datasets from 3 medical centers acquired at 3T (n = 150 subjects) were included: an internal dataset (inD; n = 95) and two external datasets (exDs; n = 55) used for evaluating the robustness of the trained deep neural network (DNN) models against differences in pulse sequence (exD-1) and scanner vendor (exD-2). A subset of inD (n = 85) was used for training/validation of a pool of DNNs for segmentation, all using the same spatiotemporal U-Net architecture and hyperparameters but with different parameter initializations. We employed a space-time sliding-patch analysis approach that automatically yields a pixel-wise "uncertainty map" as a byproduct of the segmentation process. In our approach, a given test case is segmented by all members of the DNN pool and the resulting uncertainty maps are leveraged to automatically select the "best" one among the pool of solutions. Results. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach performed similarly to the established approach on the internal dataset (p = n.s.) whereas it significantly outperformed on the external datasets (p < 0.005 for exD-1 and exD-2). Moreover, the number of image series with "failed" segmentation was significantly lower for the proposed vs. the established approach (4.3% vs. 17.1%, p < 0.0005). Conclusions. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach has the potential to improve the robustness of deep learning methods for segmentation of multi-center stress perfusion datasets with variations in the choice of pulse sequence, site location or scanner vendor.

Euclid. II. The VIS Instrument

This paper presents the specification, design, and development of the Visible Camera (VIS) on the ESA Euclid mission. VIS is a large optical-band imager with a field of view of 0.54 deg^2 sampled at 0.1" with an array of 609 Megapixels and spatial resolution of 0.18". It will be used to survey approximately 14,000 deg^2 of extragalactic sky to measure the distortion of galaxies in the redshift range z=0.1-1.5 resulting from weak gravitational lensing, one of the two principal cosmology probes of Euclid. With photometric redshifts, the distribution of dark matter can be mapped in three dimensions, and, from how this has changed with look-back time, the nature of dark energy and theories of gravity can be constrained. The entire VIS focal plane will be transmitted to provide the largest images of the Universe from space to date, reaching m_AB>24.5 with S/N >10 in a single broad I_E~(r+i+z) band over a six year survey. The particularly challenging aspects of the instrument are the control and calibration of observational biases, which lead to stringent performance requirements and calibration regimes. With its combination of spatial resolution, calibration knowledge, depth, and area covering most of the extra-Galactic sky, VIS will also provide a legacy data set for many other fields. This paper discusses the rationale behind the VIS concept and describes the instrument design and development before reporting the pre-launch performance derived from ground calibrations and brief results from the in-orbit commissioning. VIS should reach fainter than m_AB=25 with S/N>10 for galaxies of full-width half-maximum of 0.3" in a 1.3" diameter aperture over the Wide Survey, and m_AB>26.4 for a Deep Survey that will cover more than 50 deg^2. The paper also describes how VIS works with the other Euclid components of survey, telescope, and science data processing to extract the cosmological information.

Crowdsource, Crawl, or Generate? Creating SEA-VL, a Multicultural Vision-Language Dataset for Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia (SEA) is a region of extraordinary linguistic and cultural diversity, yet it remains significantly underrepresented in vision-language (VL) research. This often results in artificial intelligence (AI) models that fail to capture SEA cultural nuances. To fill this gap, we present SEA-VL, an open-source initiative dedicated to developing high-quality, culturally relevant data for SEA languages. By involving contributors from SEA countries, SEA-VL aims to ensure better cultural relevance and diversity, fostering greater inclusivity of underrepresented languages in VL research. Beyond crowdsourcing, our initiative goes one step further in the exploration of the automatic collection of culturally relevant images through crawling and image generation. First, we find that image crawling achieves approximately ~85% cultural relevance while being more cost- and time-efficient than crowdsourcing. Second, despite the substantial progress in generative vision models, synthetic images remain unreliable in accurately reflecting SEA cultures. The generated images often fail to reflect the nuanced traditions and cultural contexts of the region. Collectively, we gather 1.28M SEA culturally-relevant images, more than 50 times larger than other existing datasets. Through SEA-VL, we aim to bridge the representation gap in SEA, fostering the development of more inclusive AI systems that authentically represent diverse cultures across SEA.

Selection Function of Clusters in Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Data from Cross-Matching with South Pole Telescope Detections

Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. Yet modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by non-cluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). We empirically constrain the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy survey data with the \rdmpr, algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). For matched clusters, we augment the \rdmpr,catalog by the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we use the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multi-wavelength data, we explore various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Our analysis reveals the limitations of a simple lognormal scatter model in describing the data. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge, requiring a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) Spectrographs

We describe the design and performance of the near-infrared (1.51--1.70 micron), fiber-fed, multi-object (300 fibers), high resolution (R = lambda/delta lambda ~ 22,500) spectrograph built for the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE). APOGEE is a survey of ~ 10^5 red giant stars that systematically sampled all Milky Way populations (bulge, disk, and halo) to study the Galaxy's chemical and kinematical history. It was part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III) from 2011 -- 2014 using the 2.5 m Sloan Foundation Telescope at Apache Point Observatory, New Mexico. The APOGEE-2 survey is now using the spectrograph as part of SDSS-IV, as well as a second spectrograph, a close copy of the first, operating at the 2.5 m du Pont Telescope at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. Although several fiber-fed, multi-object, high resolution spectrographs have been built for visual wavelength spectroscopy, the APOGEE spectrograph is one of the first such instruments built for observations in the near-infrared. The instrument's successful development was enabled by several key innovations, including a "gang connector" to allow simultaneous connections of 300 fibers; hermetically sealed feedthroughs to allow fibers to pass through the cryostat wall continuously; the first cryogenically deployed mosaic volume phase holographic grating; and a large refractive camera that includes mono-crystalline silicon and fused silica elements with diameters as large as ~ 400 mm. This paper contains a comprehensive description of all aspects of the instrument including the fiber system, optics and opto-mechanics, detector arrays, mechanics and cryogenics, instrument control, calibration system, optical performance and stability, lessons learned, and design changes for the second instrument.

Towards Accurate Differential Diagnosis with Large Language Models

An accurate differential diagnosis (DDx) is a cornerstone of medical care, often reached through an iterative process of interpretation that combines clinical history, physical examination, investigations and procedures. Interactive interfaces powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) present new opportunities to both assist and automate aspects of this process. In this study, we introduce an LLM optimized for diagnostic reasoning, and evaluate its ability to generate a DDx alone or as an aid to clinicians. 20 clinicians evaluated 302 challenging, real-world medical cases sourced from the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) case reports. Each case report was read by two clinicians, who were randomized to one of two assistive conditions: either assistance from search engines and standard medical resources, or LLM assistance in addition to these tools. All clinicians provided a baseline, unassisted DDx prior to using the respective assistive tools. Our LLM for DDx exhibited standalone performance that exceeded that of unassisted clinicians (top-10 accuracy 59.1% vs 33.6%, [p = 0.04]). Comparing the two assisted study arms, the DDx quality score was higher for clinicians assisted by our LLM (top-10 accuracy 51.7%) compared to clinicians without its assistance (36.1%) (McNemar's Test: 45.7, p < 0.01) and clinicians with search (44.4%) (4.75, p = 0.03). Further, clinicians assisted by our LLM arrived at more comprehensive differential lists than those without its assistance. Our study suggests that our LLM for DDx has potential to improve clinicians' diagnostic reasoning and accuracy in challenging cases, meriting further real-world evaluation for its ability to empower physicians and widen patients' access to specialist-level expertise.

Repeating fast radio bursts from synchrotron maser radiation in localized plasma blobs: Application to FRB 20121102A

The radiation physics of repeating fast radio bursts (FRBs) remains enigmatic. Motivated by the observed narrow-banded emission spectrum and ambiguous fringe pattern of the spectral peak frequency (nu_{rm pk}) distribution of some repeating FRBs, such as FRB 20121102A, we propose that the bursts from repeating FRBs arise from synchrotron maser radiation in localized blobs within weakly magnetized plasma that relativistically moves toward observers. Assuming the plasma moves toward the observers with a bulk Lorentz factor of Gamma=100 and the electron distribution in an individual blob is monoenergetic (gamma_{rm e}sim300), our analysis shows that bright and narrow-banded radio bursts with peak flux density sim 1 {rm Jy} at peak frequency (nu_{rm pk}) sim 3.85 GHz can be produced by the synchrotron maser emission if the plasma blob has a magnetization factor of sigmasim10^{-5} and a frequency of nu_{rm P}sim 4.5 MHz. The spectrum of bursts with lower nu_{rm pk} tends to be narrower. Applying our model to the bursts of FRB 20121102A, the distributions of both the observed nu_{rm pk} and isotropic energy E_{rm iso} detected by the Arecibo telescope at the L band and the Green Bank Telescope at the C band are successfully reproduced. We find that the nu_{rm P} distribution exhibits several peaks, similar to those observed in the nu_{rm pk} distribution of FRB 20121102A. This implies that the synchrotron maser emission in FRB 20121102A is triggered in different plasma blobs with varying nu_{rm P}, likely due to the inhomogeneity of relativistic electron number density.

Recommendation as Language Processing (RLP): A Unified Pretrain, Personalized Prompt &amp; Predict Paradigm (P5)

For a long time, different recommendation tasks typically require designing task-specific architectures and training objectives. As a result, it is hard to transfer the learned knowledge and representations from one task to another, thus restricting the generalization ability of existing recommendation approaches, e.g., a sequential recommendation model can hardly be applied or transferred to a review generation method. To deal with such issues, considering that language can describe almost anything and language grounding is a powerful medium to represent various problems or tasks, we present a flexible and unified text-to-text paradigm called "Pretrain, Personalized Prompt, and Predict Paradigm" (P5) for recommendation, which unifies various recommendation tasks in a shared framework. In P5, all data such as user-item interactions, user descriptions, item metadata, and user reviews are converted to a common format -- natural language sequences. The rich information from natural language assists P5 to capture deeper semantics for personalization and recommendation. Specifically, P5 learns different tasks with the same language modeling objective during pretraining. Thus, it serves as the foundation model for various downstream recommendation tasks, allows easy integration with other modalities, and enables instruction-based recommendation based on prompts. P5 advances recommender systems from shallow model to deep model to big model, and will revolutionize the technical form of recommender systems towards universal recommendation engine. With adaptive personalized prompt for different users, P5 is able to make predictions in a zero-shot or few-shot manner and largely reduces the necessity for extensive fine-tuning. On several recommendation benchmarks, we conduct experiments to show the effectiveness of P5. We release the source code at https://github.com/jeykigung/P5.

FNSPID: A Comprehensive Financial News Dataset in Time Series

Financial market predictions utilize historical data to anticipate future stock prices and market trends. Traditionally, these predictions have focused on the statistical analysis of quantitative factors, such as stock prices, trading volumes, inflation rates, and changes in industrial production. Recent advancements in large language models motivate the integrated financial analysis of both sentiment data, particularly market news, and numerical factors. Nonetheless, this methodology frequently encounters constraints due to the paucity of extensive datasets that amalgamate both quantitative and qualitative sentiment analyses. To address this challenge, we introduce a large-scale financial dataset, namely, Financial News and Stock Price Integration Dataset (FNSPID). It comprises 29.7 million stock prices and 15.7 million time-aligned financial news records for 4,775 S&P500 companies, covering the period from 1999 to 2023, sourced from 4 stock market news websites. We demonstrate that FNSPID excels existing stock market datasets in scale and diversity while uniquely incorporating sentiment information. Through financial analysis experiments on FNSPID, we propose: (1) the dataset's size and quality significantly boost market prediction accuracy; (2) adding sentiment scores modestly enhances performance on the transformer-based model; (3) a reproducible procedure that can update the dataset. Completed work, code, documentation, and examples are available at github.com/Zdong104/FNSPID. FNSPID offers unprecedented opportunities for the financial research community to advance predictive modeling and analysis.

How to Index Item IDs for Recommendation Foundation Models

Recommendation foundation model utilizes large language models (LLM) for recommendation by converting recommendation tasks into natural language tasks. It enables generative recommendation which directly generates the item(s) to recommend rather than calculating a ranking score for each and every candidate item in traditional recommendation models, simplifying the recommendation pipeline from multi-stage filtering to single-stage filtering. To avoid generating excessively long text and hallucinated recommendation when deciding which item(s) to recommend, creating LLM-compatible item IDs to uniquely identify each item is essential for recommendation foundation models. In this study, we systematically examine the item indexing problem for recommendation foundation models, using P5 as an example of backbone model. To emphasize the importance of item indexing, we first discuss the issues of several trivial item indexing methods, such as independent indexing, title indexing, and random indexing. We then propose four simple yet effective solutions, including sequential indexing, collaborative indexing, semantic (content-based) indexing, and hybrid indexing. Our study highlights the significant influence of item indexing methods on the performance of LLM-based recommendation, and our results on real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed solutions. The research also demonstrates how recent advances on language modeling and traditional IR principles such as indexing can help each other for better learning and inference.

Feature Learning for Stock Price Prediction Shows a Significant Role of Analyst Rating

To reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis a set of 5 technical indicators and 23 fundamental indicators was identified to establish the possibility of generating excess returns on the stock market. Leveraging these data points and various classification machine learning models, trading data of the 505 equities on the US S&P500 over the past 20 years was analysed to develop a classifier effective for our cause. From any given day, we were able to predict the direction of change in price by 1% up to 10 days in the future. The predictions had an overall accuracy of 83.62% with a precision of 85% for buy signals and a recall of 100% for sell signals. Moreover, we grouped equities by their sector and repeated the experiment to see if grouping similar assets together positively effected the results but concluded that it showed no significant improvements in the performance rejecting the idea of sector-based analysis. Also, using feature ranking we could identify an even smaller set of 6 indicators while maintaining similar accuracies as that from the original 28 features and also uncovered the importance of buy, hold and sell analyst ratings as they came out to be the top contributors in the model. Finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of the classifier in real-life situations, it was backtested on FAANG equities using a modest trading strategy where it generated high returns of above 60% over the term of the testing dataset. In conclusion, our proposed methodology with the combination of purposefully picked features shows an improvement over the previous studies, and our model predicts the direction of 1% price changes on the 10th day with high confidence and with enough buffer to even build a robotic trading system.