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Mar 11

Rephrasing the Web: A Recipe for Compute and Data-Efficient Language Modeling

Large language models are trained on massive scrapes of the web, which are often unstructured, noisy, and poorly phrased. Current scaling laws show that learning from such data requires an abundance of both compute and data, which grows with the size of the model being trained. This is infeasible both because of the large compute costs and duration associated with pre-training, and the impending scarcity of high-quality data on the web. In this work, we propose Web Rephrase Augmented Pre-training (WRAP) that uses an off-the-shelf instruction-tuned model prompted to paraphrase documents on the web in specific styles such as "like Wikipedia" or in "question-answer format" to jointly pre-train LLMs on real and synthetic rephrases. First, we show that using WRAP on the C4 dataset, which is naturally noisy, speeds up pre-training by sim3x. At the same pre-training compute budget, it improves perplexity by more than 10% on average across different subsets of the Pile, and improves zero-shot question answer accuracy across 13 tasks by more than 2%. Second, we investigate the impact of the re-phrasing style on the performance of the model, offering insights into how the composition of the training data can impact the performance of LLMs in OOD settings. Our gains are attributed to the fact that re-phrased synthetic data has higher utility than just real data because it (i) incorporates style diversity that closely reflects downstream evaluation style, and (ii) has higher 'quality' than web-scraped data.

Scaling Laws for Data Filtering -- Data Curation cannot be Compute Agnostic

Vision-language models (VLMs) are trained for thousands of GPU hours on carefully curated web datasets. In recent times, data curation has gained prominence with several works developing strategies to retain 'high-quality' subsets of 'raw' scraped data. For instance, the LAION public dataset retained only 10% of the total crawled data. However, these strategies are typically developed agnostic of the available compute for training. In this paper, we first demonstrate that making filtering decisions independent of training compute is often suboptimal: the limited high-quality data rapidly loses its utility when repeated, eventually requiring the inclusion of 'unseen' but 'lower-quality' data. To address this quality-quantity tradeoff (QQT), we introduce neural scaling laws that account for the non-homogeneous nature of web data, an angle ignored in existing literature. Our scaling laws (i) characterize the differing 'utility' of various quality subsets of web data; (ii) account for how utility diminishes for a data point at its 'nth' repetition; and (iii) formulate the mutual interaction of various data pools when combined, enabling the estimation of model performance on a combination of multiple data pools without ever jointly training on them. Our key message is that data curation cannot be agnostic of the total compute that a model will be trained for. Our scaling laws allow us to curate the best possible pool for achieving top performance on Datacomp at various compute budgets, carving out a pareto-frontier for data curation. Code is available at https://github.com/locuslab/scaling_laws_data_filtering.

FlashFFTConv: Efficient Convolutions for Long Sequences with Tensor Cores

Convolution models with long filters have demonstrated state-of-the-art reasoning abilities in many long-sequence tasks but lag behind the most optimized Transformers in wall-clock time. A major bottleneck is the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)--which allows long convolutions to run in O(N logN) time in sequence length N but has poor hardware utilization. In this paper, we study how to optimize the FFT convolution. We find two key bottlenecks: the FFT does not effectively use specialized matrix multiply units, and it incurs expensive I/O between layers of the memory hierarchy. In response, we propose FlashFFTConv. FlashFFTConv uses a matrix decomposition that computes the FFT using matrix multiply units and enables kernel fusion for long sequences, reducing I/O. We also present two sparse convolution algorithms--1) partial convolutions and 2) frequency-sparse convolutions--which can be implemented simply by skipping blocks in the matrix decomposition, enabling further opportunities for memory and compute savings. FlashFFTConv speeds up exact FFT convolutions by up to 7.93times over PyTorch and achieves up to 4.4times speedup end-to-end. Given the same compute budget, FlashFFTConv allows Hyena-GPT-s to achieve 2.3 points better perplexity on the PILE and M2-BERT-base to achieve 3.3 points higher GLUE score--matching models with twice the parameter count. FlashFFTConv also achieves 96.1% accuracy on Path-512, a high-resolution vision task where no model had previously achieved better than 50%. Furthermore, partial convolutions enable longer-sequence models--yielding the first DNA model that can process the longest human genes (2.3M base pairs)--and frequency-sparse convolutions speed up pretrained models while maintaining or improving model quality.

Efficient Continual Pre-training by Mitigating the Stability Gap

Continual pre-training has increasingly become the predominant approach for adapting Large Language Models (LLMs) to new domains. This process involves updating the pre-trained LLM with a corpus from a new domain, resulting in a shift in the training distribution. To study the behavior of LLMs during this shift, we measured the model's performance throughout the continual pre-training process. we observed a temporary performance drop at the beginning, followed by a recovery phase, a phenomenon known as the "stability gap," previously noted in vision models classifying new classes. To address this issue and enhance LLM performance within a fixed compute budget, we propose three effective strategies: (1) Continually pre-training the LLM on a subset with a proper size for multiple epochs, resulting in faster performance recovery than pre-training the LLM on a large corpus in a single epoch; (2) Pre-training the LLM only on high-quality sub-corpus, which rapidly boosts domain performance; and (3) Using a data mixture similar to the pre-training data to reduce distribution gap. We conduct various experiments on Llama-family models to validate the effectiveness of our strategies in both medical continual pre-training and instruction tuning. For example, our strategies improve the average medical task performance of the OpenLlama-3B model from 36.2% to 40.7% with only 40% of the original training budget and enhance the average general task performance without causing forgetting. Furthermore, we apply our strategies to the Llama-3-8B model. The resulting model, Llama-3-Physician, achieves the best medical performance among current open-source models, and performs comparably to or even better than GPT-4 on several medical benchmarks. We release our models at https://huggingface.co/YiDuo1999/Llama-3-Physician-8B-Instruct.

Scaling Laws for Autoregressive Generative Modeling

We identify empirical scaling laws for the cross-entropy loss in four domains: generative image modeling, video modeling, multimodal imageleftrightarrowtext models, and mathematical problem solving. In all cases autoregressive Transformers smoothly improve in performance as model size and compute budgets increase, following a power-law plus constant scaling law. The optimal model size also depends on the compute budget through a power-law, with exponents that are nearly universal across all data domains. The cross-entropy loss has an information theoretic interpretation as S(True) + D_{KL}(True||Model), and the empirical scaling laws suggest a prediction for both the true data distribution's entropy and the KL divergence between the true and model distributions. With this interpretation, billion-parameter Transformers are nearly perfect models of the YFCC100M image distribution downsampled to an 8times 8 resolution, and we can forecast the model size needed to achieve any given reducible loss (ie D_{KL}) in nats/image for other resolutions. We find a number of additional scaling laws in specific domains: (a) we identify a scaling relation for the mutual information between captions and images in multimodal models, and show how to answer the question "Is a picture worth a thousand words?"; (b) in the case of mathematical problem solving, we identify scaling laws for model performance when extrapolating beyond the training distribution; (c) we finetune generative image models for ImageNet classification and find smooth scaling of the classification loss and error rate, even as the generative loss levels off. Taken together, these results strengthen the case that scaling laws have important implications for neural network performance, including on downstream tasks.

LoLCATs: On Low-Rank Linearizing of Large Language Models

Recent works show we can linearize large language models (LLMs) -- swapping the quadratic attentions of popular Transformer-based LLMs with subquadratic analogs, such as linear attention -- avoiding the expensive pretraining costs. However, linearizing LLMs often significantly degrades model quality, still requires training over billions of tokens, and remains limited to smaller 1.3B to 7B LLMs. We thus propose Low-rank Linear Conversion via Attention Transfer (LoLCATs), a simple two-step method that improves LLM linearizing quality with orders of magnitudes less memory and compute. We base these steps on two findings. First, we can replace an LLM's softmax attentions with closely-approximating linear attentions, simply by training the linear attentions to match their softmax counterparts with an output MSE loss ("attention transfer"). Then, this enables adjusting for approximation errors and recovering LLM quality simply with low-rank adaptation (LoRA). LoLCATs significantly improves linearizing quality, training efficiency, and scalability. We significantly reduce the linearizing quality gap and produce state-of-the-art subquadratic LLMs from Llama 3 8B and Mistral 7B v0.1, leading to 20+ points of improvement on 5-shot MMLU. Furthermore, LoLCATs does so with only 0.2% of past methods' model parameters and 0.4% of their training tokens. Finally, we apply LoLCATs to create the first linearized 70B and 405B LLMs (50x larger than prior work). When compared with prior approaches under the same compute budgets, LoLCATs significantly improves linearizing quality, closing the gap between linearized and original Llama 3.1 70B and 405B LLMs by 77.8% and 78.1% on 5-shot MMLU.

Scaling Retrieval-Based Language Models with a Trillion-Token Datastore

Scaling laws with respect to the amount of training data and the number of parameters allow us to predict the cost-benefit trade-offs of pretraining language models (LMs) in different configurations. In this paper, we consider another dimension of scaling: the amount of data available at inference time. Specifically, we find that increasing the size of the datastore used by a retrieval-based LM monotonically improves language modeling and several downstream tasks without obvious saturation, such that a smaller model augmented with a large datastore outperforms a larger LM-only model on knowledge-intensive tasks. By plotting compute-optimal scaling curves with varied datastore, model, and pretraining data sizes, we show that using larger datastores can significantly improve model performance for the same training compute budget. We carry out our study by constructing a 1.4 trillion-token datastore named MassiveDS, which is the largest and the most diverse open-sourced datastore for retrieval-based LMs to date, and designing an efficient pipeline for studying datastore scaling in a computationally accessible manner. Finally, we analyze the effect of improving the retriever, datastore quality filtering, and other design choices on our observed scaling trends. Overall, our results show that datastore size should be considered as an integral part of LM efficiency and performance trade-offs. To facilitate future research, we open-source our datastore and code at https://github.com/RulinShao/retrieval-scaling.

Duo-LLM: A Framework for Studying Adaptive Computation in Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) typically generate outputs token by token using a fixed compute budget, leading to inefficient resource utilization. To address this shortcoming, recent advancements in mixture of expert (MoE) models, speculative decoding, and early exit strategies leverage the insight that computational demands can vary significantly based on the complexity and nature of the input. However, identifying optimal routing patterns for dynamic execution remains an open challenge, limiting the full potential of these adaptive methods. To address this need, we study adaptive computation in LLMs more systematically. We propose a novel framework that integrates smaller auxiliary modules within each Feed-Forward Network layer of the LLM. This design enables dynamic routing of tokens based on task complexity: tokens can be processed by either the small or big modules at each layer, or even bypass certain layers entirely. This allows us to introduce a novel notion of a token's difficulty, defined by its potential to benefit from additional computational resources. Importantly, by employing oracles to identify optimal patterns of adaptive computations, we gain valuable insights into the internal workings of LLMs and the routing processes in a simplified heterogeneous MoE setup. We show that trained routers operate differently from oracles and often yield suboptimal solutions. Notably, activating a large module in just one layer outperforms models that use large modules across all layers, underscoring the gap between practical implementations of routing in MoE models and theoretical optima for adaptive computation.

Archon: An Architecture Search Framework for Inference-Time Techniques

Inference-time techniques are emerging as highly effective tools to enhance large language model (LLM) capabilities. However, best practices for developing systems that combine these techniques remain underdeveloped due to our limited understanding of the utility of individual inference-time techniques and the interactions between them. Additionally, efficiently and automatically searching the space of model choices, inference-time techniques, and their compositions is challenging due to the large design space. To address these challenges, we introduce Archon, a modular framework for selecting, combining, and stacking layers of inference-time techniques to construct optimized LLM systems for target benchmarks. Rather than relying on a single LLM called once, we leverage a diverse set of LLMs and inference-time techniques, creating LLM systems greater than the sum of their parts. Archon defines an extensible design space, encompassing techniques such as generation ensembling, repeated sampling, ranking, fusion, critiquing, verification, and unit testing. It transforms the problem of building LLM systems into a hyperparameter optimization objective. Given the available LLMs, inference-time techniques, and compute budget, Archon utilizes hyperparameter search techniques to discover optimized architectures for target benchmark(s). We evaluate Archon architectures across a range of instruction-following, reasoning, and coding benchmarks, including MT-Bench, Arena-Hard-Auto, AlpacaEval 2.0, MixEval, MixEval Hard, MATH, and CodeContests. Archon architectures outperform frontier models, such as GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet, on these benchmarks, achieving an average accuracy increase of 15.1 percentage points by using all available LLMs. We make our code and datasets available publicly on Github: https://github.com/ScalingIntelligence/Archon.

Efficient Controllable Multi-Task Architectures

We aim to train a multi-task model such that users can adjust the desired compute budget and relative importance of task performances after deployment, without retraining. This enables optimizing performance for dynamically varying user needs, without heavy computational overhead to train and save models for various scenarios. To this end, we propose a multi-task model consisting of a shared encoder and task-specific decoders where both encoder and decoder channel widths are slimmable. Our key idea is to control the task importance by varying the capacities of task-specific decoders, while controlling the total computational cost by jointly adjusting the encoder capacity. This improves overall accuracy by allowing a stronger encoder for a given budget, increases control over computational cost, and delivers high-quality slimmed sub-architectures based on user's constraints. Our training strategy involves a novel 'Configuration-Invariant Knowledge Distillation' loss that enforces backbone representations to be invariant under different runtime width configurations to enhance accuracy. Further, we present a simple but effective search algorithm that translates user constraints to runtime width configurations of both the shared encoder and task decoders, for sampling the sub-architectures. The key rule for the search algorithm is to provide a larger computational budget to the higher preferred task decoder, while searching a shared encoder configuration that enhances the overall MTL performance. Various experiments on three multi-task benchmarks (PASCALContext, NYUDv2, and CIFAR100-MTL) with diverse backbone architectures demonstrate the advantage of our approach. For example, our method shows a higher controllability by ~33.5% in the NYUD-v2 dataset over prior methods, while incurring much less compute cost.

Scaling Laws with Vocabulary: Larger Models Deserve Larger Vocabularies

Research on scaling large language models (LLMs) has primarily focused on model parameters and training data size, overlooking the role of vocabulary size. % Intuitively, larger vocabularies enable more efficient tokenization by representing sentences with fewer tokens, but they also increase the risk of under-fitting representations for rare tokens. We investigate how vocabulary size impacts LLM scaling laws by training models ranging from 33M to 3B parameters on up to 500B characters with various vocabulary configurations. We propose three complementary approaches for predicting the compute-optimal vocabulary size: IsoFLOPs analysis, derivative estimation, and parametric fit of the loss function. Our approaches converge on the same result that the optimal vocabulary size depends on the available compute budget and that larger models deserve larger vocabularies. However, most LLMs use too small vocabulary sizes. For example, we predict that the optimal vocabulary size of Llama2-70B should have been at least 216K, 7 times larger than its vocabulary of 32K. We validate our predictions empirically by training models with 3B parameters across different FLOPs budgets. Adopting our predicted optimal vocabulary size consistently improves downstream performance over commonly used vocabulary sizes. By increasing the vocabulary size from the conventional 32K to 43K, we improve performance on ARC-Challenge from 29.1 to 32.0 with the same 2.3e21 FLOPs. Our work emphasizes the necessity of jointly considering model parameters and vocabulary size for efficient scaling.

DataComp: In search of the next generation of multimodal datasets

Large multimodal datasets have been instrumental in recent breakthroughs such as CLIP, Stable Diffusion, and GPT-4. At the same time, datasets rarely receive the same research attention as model architectures or training algorithms. To address this shortcoming in the machine learning ecosystem, we introduce DataComp, a benchmark where the training code is fixed and researchers innovate by proposing new training sets. We provide a testbed for dataset experiments centered around a new candidate pool of 12.8B image-text pairs from Common Crawl. Participants in our benchmark design new filtering techniques or curate new data sources and then evaluate their new dataset by running our standardized CLIP training code and testing on 38 downstream test sets. Our benchmark consists of multiple scales, with four candidate pool sizes and associated compute budgets ranging from 12.8M to 12.8B samples seen during training. This multi-scale design facilitates the study of scaling trends and makes the benchmark accessible to researchers with varying resources. Our baseline experiments show that the DataComp workflow is a promising way of improving multimodal datasets. We introduce DataComp-1B, a dataset created by applying a simple filtering algorithm to the 12.8B candidate pool. The resulting 1.4B subset enables training a CLIP ViT-L/14 from scratch to 79.2% zero-shot accuracy on ImageNet. Our new ViT-L/14 model outperforms a larger ViT-g/14 trained on LAION-2B by 0.7 percentage points while requiring 9x less training compute. We also outperform OpenAI's CLIP ViT-L/14 by 3.7 percentage points, which is trained with the same compute budget as our model. These gains highlight the potential for improving model performance by carefully curating training sets. We view DataComp-1B as only the first step and hope that DataComp paves the way toward the next generation of multimodal datasets.

The Journey Matters: Average Parameter Count over Pre-training Unifies Sparse and Dense Scaling Laws

Pruning eliminates unnecessary parameters in neural networks; it offers a promising solution to the growing computational demands of large language models (LLMs). While many focus on post-training pruning, sparse pre-training--which combines pruning and pre-training into a single phase--provides a simpler alternative. In this work, we present the first systematic exploration of optimal sparse pre-training configurations for LLMs through an examination of 80 unique pruning schedules across different sparsity levels and training durations. We find that initiating pruning at 25% of total training compute and concluding at 75% achieves near-optimal final evaluation loss. These findings provide valuable insights for efficient and effective sparse pre-training of LLMs. Furthermore, we propose a new scaling law that modifies the Chinchilla scaling law to use the average parameter count over pre-training. Through empirical and theoretical validation, we demonstrate that this modified scaling law accurately models evaluation loss for both sparsely and densely pre-trained LLMs, unifying scaling laws across pre-training paradigms. Our findings indicate that while sparse pre-training achieves the same final model quality as dense pre-training for equivalent compute budgets, it provides substantial benefits through reduced model size, enabling significant potential computational savings during inference.

Towards Neural Scaling Laws for Time Series Foundation Models

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

MobileQuant: Mobile-friendly Quantization for On-device Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized language processing, delivering outstanding results across multiple applications. However, deploying LLMs on edge devices poses several challenges with respect to memory, energy, and compute costs, limiting their widespread use in devices such as mobile phones. A promising solution is to reduce the number of bits used to represent weights and activations. While existing works have found partial success at quantizing LLMs to lower bitwidths, e.g. 4-bit weights, quantizing activations beyond 16 bits often leads to large computational overheads due to poor on-device quantization support, or a considerable accuracy drop. Yet, 8-bit activations are very attractive for on-device deployment as they would enable LLMs to fully exploit mobile-friendly hardware, e.g. Neural Processing Units (NPUs). In this work, we make a first attempt to facilitate the on-device deployment of LLMs using integer-only quantization. We first investigate the limitations of existing quantization methods for on-device deployment, with a special focus on activation quantization. We then address these limitations by introducing a simple post-training quantization method, named MobileQuant, that extends previous weight equivalent transformation works by jointly optimizing the weight transformation and activation range parameters in an end-to-end manner. MobileQuant demonstrates superior capabilities over existing methods by 1) achieving near-lossless quantization on a wide range of LLM benchmarks, 2) reducing latency and energy consumption by 20\%-50\% compared to current on-device quantization strategies, 3) requiring limited compute budget, 4) being compatible with mobile-friendly compute units, e.g. NPU.

Not All Prompts Are Made Equal: Prompt-based Pruning of Text-to-Image Diffusion Models

Text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models have demonstrated impressive image generation capabilities. Still, their computational intensity prohibits resource-constrained organizations from deploying T2I models after fine-tuning them on their internal target data. While pruning techniques offer a potential solution to reduce the computational burden of T2I models, static pruning methods use the same pruned model for all input prompts, overlooking the varying capacity requirements of different prompts. Dynamic pruning addresses this issue by utilizing a separate sub-network for each prompt, but it prevents batch parallelism on GPUs. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Adaptive Prompt-Tailored Pruning (APTP), a novel prompt-based pruning method designed for T2I diffusion models. Central to our approach is a prompt router model, which learns to determine the required capacity for an input text prompt and routes it to an architecture code, given a total desired compute budget for prompts. Each architecture code represents a specialized model tailored to the prompts assigned to it, and the number of codes is a hyperparameter. We train the prompt router and architecture codes using contrastive learning, ensuring that similar prompts are mapped to nearby codes. Further, we employ optimal transport to prevent the codes from collapsing into a single one. We demonstrate APTP's effectiveness by pruning Stable Diffusion (SD) V2.1 using CC3M and COCO as target datasets. APTP outperforms the single-model pruning baselines in terms of FID, CLIP, and CMMD scores. Our analysis of the clusters learned by APTP reveals they are semantically meaningful. We also show that APTP can automatically discover previously empirically found challenging prompts for SD, e.g., prompts for generating text images, assigning them to higher capacity codes.

AdANNS: A Framework for Adaptive Semantic Search

Web-scale search systems learn an encoder to embed a given query which is then hooked into an approximate nearest neighbor search (ANNS) pipeline to retrieve similar data points. To accurately capture tail queries and data points, learned representations typically are rigid, high-dimensional vectors that are generally used as-is in the entire ANNS pipeline and can lead to computationally expensive retrieval. In this paper, we argue that instead of rigid representations, different stages of ANNS can leverage adaptive representations of varying capacities to achieve significantly better accuracy-compute trade-offs, i.e., stages of ANNS that can get away with more approximate computation should use a lower-capacity representation of the same data point. To this end, we introduce AdANNS, a novel ANNS design framework that explicitly leverages the flexibility of Matryoshka Representations. We demonstrate state-of-the-art accuracy-compute trade-offs using novel AdANNS-based key ANNS building blocks like search data structures (AdANNS-IVF) and quantization (AdANNS-OPQ). For example on ImageNet retrieval, AdANNS-IVF is up to 1.5% more accurate than the rigid representations-based IVF at the same compute budget; and matches accuracy while being up to 90x faster in wall-clock time. For Natural Questions, 32-byte AdANNS-OPQ matches the accuracy of the 64-byte OPQ baseline constructed using rigid representations -- same accuracy at half the cost! We further show that the gains from AdANNS translate to modern-day composite ANNS indices that combine search structures and quantization. Finally, we demonstrate that AdANNS can enable inference-time adaptivity for compute-aware search on ANNS indices built non-adaptively on matryoshka representations. Code is open-sourced at https://github.com/RAIVNLab/AdANNS.

MonoByte: A Pool of Monolingual Byte-level Language Models

The zero-shot cross-lingual ability of models pretrained on multilingual and even monolingual corpora has spurred many hypotheses to explain this intriguing empirical result. However, due to the costs of pretraining, most research uses public models whose pretraining methodology, such as the choice of tokenization, corpus size, and computational budget, might differ drastically. When researchers pretrain their own models, they often do so under a constrained budget, and the resulting models might underperform significantly compared to SOTA models. These experimental differences led to various inconsistent conclusions about the nature of the cross-lingual ability of these models. To help further research on the topic, we released 10 monolingual byte-level models rigorously pretrained under the same configuration with a large compute budget (equivalent to 420 days on a V100) and corpora that are 4 times larger than the original BERT's. Because they are tokenizer-free, the problem of unseen token embeddings is eliminated, thus allowing researchers to try a wider range of cross-lingual experiments in languages with different scripts. Additionally, we release two models pretrained on non-natural language texts that can be used in sanity-check experiments. Experiments on QA and NLI tasks show that our monolingual models achieve competitive performance to the multilingual one, and hence can be served to strengthen our understanding of cross-lingual transferability in language models.

RegMix: Data Mixture as Regression for Language Model Pre-training

The data mixture for large language model pre-training significantly impacts performance, yet how to determine an effective mixture remains unclear. We propose RegMix to automatically identify a high-performing data mixture by formulating it as a regression task. RegMix involves training a set of small models with diverse data mixtures and fitting a regression model to predict their performance given their respective mixtures. With the fitted regression model, we simulate the top-ranked mixture and use it to train a large-scale model with orders of magnitude more compute. To empirically validate RegMix, we train 512 models with 1M parameters for 1B tokens of different mixtures to fit the regression model and find the optimal mixture. Using this mixture we train a 1B parameter model for 25B tokens (i.e. 1000x larger and 25x longer) which we find performs best among 64 candidate 1B parameter models with other mixtures. Further, our method demonstrates superior performance compared to human selection and achieves results that match or surpass DoReMi, while utilizing only 10% of the compute budget. Our experiments also show that (1) Data mixtures significantly impact performance with single-task performance variations of up to 14.6%; (2) Web corpora rather than data perceived as high-quality like Wikipedia have the strongest positive correlation with downstream performance; (3) Domains interact in complex ways often contradicting common sense, thus automatic approaches like RegMix are needed; (4) Data mixture effects transcend scaling laws, and our approach captures the complexity by considering all domains together. Our code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/regmix.

Stable Video Diffusion: Scaling Latent Video Diffusion Models to Large Datasets

We present Stable Video Diffusion - a latent video diffusion model for high-resolution, state-of-the-art text-to-video and image-to-video generation. Recently, latent diffusion models trained for 2D image synthesis have been turned into generative video models by inserting temporal layers and finetuning them on small, high-quality video datasets. However, training methods in the literature vary widely, and the field has yet to agree on a unified strategy for curating video data. In this paper, we identify and evaluate three different stages for successful training of video LDMs: text-to-image pretraining, video pretraining, and high-quality video finetuning. Furthermore, we demonstrate the necessity of a well-curated pretraining dataset for generating high-quality videos and present a systematic curation process to train a strong base model, including captioning and filtering strategies. We then explore the impact of finetuning our base model on high-quality data and train a text-to-video model that is competitive with closed-source video generation. We also show that our base model provides a powerful motion representation for downstream tasks such as image-to-video generation and adaptability to camera motion-specific LoRA modules. Finally, we demonstrate that our model provides a strong multi-view 3D-prior and can serve as a base to finetune a multi-view diffusion model that jointly generates multiple views of objects in a feedforward fashion, outperforming image-based methods at a fraction of their compute budget. We release code and model weights at https://github.com/Stability-AI/generative-models .

Data Filtering Networks

Large training sets have become a cornerstone of machine learning and are the foundation for recent advances in language modeling and multimodal learning. While data curation for pre-training is often still ad-hoc, one common paradigm is to first collect a massive pool of data from the Web and then filter this candidate pool down to an actual training set via various heuristics. In this work, we study the problem of learning a data filtering network (DFN) for this second step of filtering a large uncurated dataset. Our key finding is that the quality of a network for filtering is distinct from its performance on downstream tasks: for instance, a model that performs well on ImageNet can yield worse training sets than a model with low ImageNet accuracy that is trained on a small amount of high-quality data. Based on our insights, we construct new data filtering networks that induce state-of-the-art image-text datasets. Specifically, our best performing dataset DFN-5B enables us to train state-of-the-art models for their compute budgets: among other improvements on a variety of tasks, a ViT-H trained on our dataset achieves 83.0% zero-shot transfer accuracy on ImageNet, out-performing models trained on other datasets such as LAION-2B, DataComp-1B, or OpenAI's WIT. In order to facilitate further research in dataset design, we also release a new 2 billion example dataset DFN-2B and show that high performance data filtering networks can be trained from scratch using only publicly available data.

Inference Scaling $\scriptsize\mathtt{F}$Laws: The Limits of LLM Resampling with Imperfect Verifiers

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate

Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables, which are challenging to approximate. Additionally, many such numerical models are computationally intensive, especially when modeling the atmospheric phenomenon at a fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution. Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning instead aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of numerical models. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pre-trained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pre-trained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets.

Scalable and Efficient MoE Training for Multitask Multilingual Models

The Mixture of Experts (MoE) models are an emerging class of sparsely activated deep learning models that have sublinear compute costs with respect to their parameters. In contrast with dense models, the sparse architecture of MoE offers opportunities for drastically growing model size with significant accuracy gain while consuming much lower compute budget. However, supporting large scale MoE training also has its own set of system and modeling challenges. To overcome the challenges and embrace the opportunities of MoE, we first develop a system capable of scaling MoE models efficiently to trillions of parameters. It combines multi-dimensional parallelism and heterogeneous memory technologies harmoniously with MoE to empower 8x larger models on the same hardware compared with existing work. Besides boosting system efficiency, we also present new training methods to improve MoE sample efficiency and leverage expert pruning strategy to improve inference time efficiency. By combining the efficient system and training methods, we are able to significantly scale up large multitask multilingual models for language generation which results in a great improvement in model accuracy. A model trained with 10 billion parameters on 50 languages can achieve state-of-the-art performance in Machine Translation (MT) and multilingual natural language generation tasks. The system support of efficient MoE training has been implemented and open-sourced with the DeepSpeed library.

Scaling Test-Time Compute Without Verification or RL is Suboptimal

Despite substantial advances in scaling test-time compute, an ongoing debate in the community is how it should be scaled up to enable continued and efficient improvements with scaling. There are largely two approaches: first, distilling successful search or thinking traces; and second, using verification (e.g., 0/1 outcome rewards, reward models, or verifiers) to guide reinforcement learning (RL) and search algorithms. In this paper, we prove that finetuning LLMs with verifier-based (VB) methods based on RL or search is far superior to verifier-free (VF) approaches based on distilling or cloning search traces, given a fixed amount of compute/data budget. Further, we show that as we scale test-time compute (measured as the output token length) and training data, suboptimality of VF methods scales poorly compared to VB when the base pre-trained LLM presents a heterogeneous distribution over correct solution traces (e.g., different lengths, styles, etc.) and admits a non-sharp distribution over rewards on traces sampled from it. We formalize this condition using anti-concentration [Erdos, 1945]. This implies a stronger result that VB methods scale better asymptotically, with the performance gap between VB and VF methods widening as test-time budget grows. We corroborate our theory empirically on both didactic and math reasoning problems with 3/8/32B-sized pre-trained LLMs, where we find verification is crucial for scaling test-time compute.

Rethinking Fine-Tuning when Scaling Test-Time Compute: Limiting Confidence Improves Mathematical Reasoning

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) highlights the power of scaling test-time compute to achieve strong performance on complex tasks, such as mathematical reasoning and code generation. This raises a critical question: how should model training be modified to optimize performance under a subsequent test-time compute strategy and budget? To explore this, we focus on pass@N, a simple test-time strategy that searches for a correct answer in N independent samples. We show, surprisingly, that training with cross-entropy (CE) loss can be {it misaligned} with pass@N in that pass@N accuracy {it decreases} with longer training. We explain the origins of this misalignment in terms of model overconfidence induced by CE, and experimentally verify our prediction of overconfidence as an impediment to scaling test-time compute via pass@N. Furthermore we suggest a principled, modified training loss that is better aligned to pass@N by limiting model confidence and rescuing pass@N test performance. Our algorithm demonstrates improved mathematical reasoning on MATH and MiniF2F benchmarks under several scenarios: (1) providing answers to math questions; and (2) proving theorems by searching over proof trees of varying shapes. Overall our work underscores the importance of co-designing two traditionally separate phases of LLM development: training-time protocols and test-time search and reasoning strategies.

CodeMonkeys: Scaling Test-Time Compute for Software Engineering

Scaling test-time compute is a promising axis for improving LLM capabilities. However, test-time compute can be scaled in a variety of ways, and effectively combining different approaches remains an active area of research. Here, we explore this problem in the context of solving real-world GitHub issues from the SWE-bench dataset. Our system, named CodeMonkeys, allows models to iteratively edit a codebase by jointly generating and running a testing script alongside their draft edit. We sample many of these multi-turn trajectories for every issue to generate a collection of candidate edits. This approach lets us scale "serial" test-time compute by increasing the number of iterations per trajectory and "parallel" test-time compute by increasing the number of trajectories per problem. With parallel scaling, we can amortize up-front costs across multiple downstream samples, allowing us to identify relevant codebase context using the simple method of letting an LLM read every file. In order to select between candidate edits, we combine voting using model-generated tests with a final multi-turn trajectory dedicated to selection. Overall, CodeMonkeys resolves 57.4% of issues from SWE-bench Verified using a budget of approximately 2300 USD. Our selection method can also be used to combine candidates from different sources. Selecting over an ensemble of edits from existing top SWE-bench Verified submissions obtains a score of 66.2% and outperforms the best member of the ensemble on its own. We fully release our code and data at https://scalingintelligence.stanford.edu/pubs/codemonkeys.

Distilling from Similar Tasks for Transfer Learning on a Budget

We address the challenge of getting efficient yet accurate recognition systems with limited labels. While recognition models improve with model size and amount of data, many specialized applications of computer vision have severe resource constraints both during training and inference. Transfer learning is an effective solution for training with few labels, however often at the expense of a computationally costly fine-tuning of large base models. We propose to mitigate this unpleasant trade-off between compute and accuracy via semi-supervised cross-domain distillation from a set of diverse source models. Initially, we show how to use task similarity metrics to select a single suitable source model to distill from, and that a good selection process is imperative for good downstream performance of a target model. We dub this approach DistillNearest. Though effective, DistillNearest assumes a single source model matches the target task, which is not always the case. To alleviate this, we propose a weighted multi-source distillation method to distill multiple source models trained on different domains weighted by their relevance for the target task into a single efficient model (named DistillWeighted). Our methods need no access to source data, and merely need features and pseudo-labels of the source models. When the goal is accurate recognition under computational constraints, both DistillNearest and DistillWeighted approaches outperform both transfer learning from strong ImageNet initializations as well as state-of-the-art semi-supervised techniques such as FixMatch. Averaged over 8 diverse target tasks our multi-source method outperforms the baselines by 5.6%-points and 4.5%-points, respectively.

Transcending Scaling Laws with 0.1% Extra Compute

Scaling language models improves performance but comes with significant computational costs. This paper proposes UL2R, a method that substantially improves existing language models and their scaling curves with a relatively tiny amount of extra compute. The key idea is to continue training a state-of-the-art large language model (e.g., PaLM) on a few more steps with UL2's mixture-of-denoiser objective. We show that, with almost negligible extra computational costs and no new sources of data, we are able to substantially improve the scaling properties of large language models on downstream metrics. In this paper, we continue training PaLM with UL2R, introducing a new set of models at 8B, 62B, and 540B scale which we call U-PaLM. Impressively, at 540B scale, we show an approximately 2x computational savings rate where U-PaLM achieves the same performance as the final PaLM 540B model at around half its computational budget (i.e., saving sim4.4 million TPUv4 hours). We further show that this improved scaling curve leads to 'emergent abilities' on challenging BIG-Bench tasks -- for instance, U-PaLM does much better than PaLM on some tasks or demonstrates better quality at much smaller scale (62B as opposed to 540B). Overall, we show that U-PaLM outperforms PaLM on many few-shot setups, i.e., English NLP tasks (e.g., commonsense reasoning, question answering), reasoning tasks with chain-of-thought (e.g., GSM8K), multilingual tasks (MGSM, TydiQA), MMLU and challenging BIG-Bench tasks. Finally, we provide qualitative examples showing the new capabilities of U-PaLM for single and multi-span infilling.

Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Sampling

Scaling the amount of compute used to train language models has dramatically improved their capabilities. However, when it comes to inference, we often limit the amount of compute to only one attempt per problem. Here, we explore inference compute as another axis for scaling by increasing the number of generated samples. Across multiple tasks and models, we observe that coverage - the fraction of problems solved by any attempt - scales with the number of samples over four orders of magnitude. In domains like coding and formal proofs, where all answers can be automatically verified, these increases in coverage directly translate into improved performance. When we apply repeated sampling to SWE-bench Lite, the fraction of issues solved with DeepSeek-V2-Coder-Instruct increases from 15.9% with one sample to 56% with 250 samples, outperforming the single-attempt state-of-the-art of 43% which uses more capable frontier models. Moreover, using current API pricing, amplifying the cheaper DeepSeek model with five samples is more cost-effective and solves more issues than paying a premium for one sample from GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Interestingly, the relationship between coverage and the number of samples is often log-linear and can be modelled with an exponentiated power law, suggesting the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Finally, we find that identifying correct samples out of many generations remains an important direction for future research in domains without automatic verifiers. When solving math word problems from GSM8K and MATH, coverage with Llama-3 models grows to over 95% with 10,000 samples. However, common methods to pick correct solutions from a sample collection, such as majority voting or reward models, plateau beyond several hundred samples and fail to fully scale with the sample budget.

Pareto-Optimal Quantized ResNet Is Mostly 4-bit

Quantization has become a popular technique to compress neural networks and reduce compute cost, but most prior work focuses on studying quantization without changing the network size. Many real-world applications of neural networks have compute cost and memory budgets, which can be traded off with model quality by changing the number of parameters. In this work, we use ResNet as a case study to systematically investigate the effects of quantization on inference compute cost-quality tradeoff curves. Our results suggest that for each bfloat16 ResNet model, there are quantized models with lower cost and higher accuracy; in other words, the bfloat16 compute cost-quality tradeoff curve is Pareto-dominated by the 4-bit and 8-bit curves, with models primarily quantized to 4-bit yielding the best Pareto curve. Furthermore, we achieve state-of-the-art results on ImageNet for 4-bit ResNet-50 with quantization-aware training, obtaining a top-1 eval accuracy of 77.09%. We demonstrate the regularizing effect of quantization by measuring the generalization gap. The quantization method we used is optimized for practicality: It requires little tuning and is designed with hardware capabilities in mind. Our work motivates further research into optimal numeric formats for quantization, as well as the development of machine learning accelerators supporting these formats. As part of this work, we contribute a quantization library written in JAX, which is open-sourced at https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/aqt.

Inference Scaling for Long-Context Retrieval Augmented Generation

The scaling of inference computation has unlocked the potential of long-context large language models (LLMs) across diverse settings. For knowledge-intensive tasks, the increased compute is often allocated to incorporate more external knowledge. However, without effectively utilizing such knowledge, solely expanding context does not always enhance performance. In this work, we investigate inference scaling for retrieval augmented generation (RAG), exploring strategies beyond simply increasing the quantity of knowledge. We focus on two inference scaling strategies: in-context learning and iterative prompting. These strategies provide additional flexibility to scale test-time computation (e.g., by increasing retrieved documents or generation steps), thereby enhancing LLMs' ability to effectively acquire and utilize contextual information. We address two key questions: (1) How does RAG performance benefit from the scaling of inference computation when optimally configured? (2) Can we predict the optimal test-time compute allocation for a given budget by modeling the relationship between RAG performance and inference parameters? Our observations reveal that increasing inference computation leads to nearly linear gains in RAG performance when optimally allocated, a relationship we describe as the inference scaling laws for RAG. Building on this, we further develop the computation allocation model to estimate RAG performance across different inference configurations. The model predicts optimal inference parameters under various computation constraints, which align closely with the experimental results. By applying these optimal configurations, we demonstrate that scaling inference compute on long-context LLMs achieves up to 58.9% gains on benchmark datasets compared to standard RAG.

MoMa: Efficient Early-Fusion Pre-training with Mixture of Modality-Aware Experts

We introduce MoMa, a novel modality-aware mixture-of-experts (MoE) architecture designed for pre-training mixed-modal, early-fusion language models. MoMa processes images and text in arbitrary sequences by dividing expert modules into modality-specific groups. These groups exclusively process designated tokens while employing learned routing within each group to maintain semantically informed adaptivity. Our empirical results reveal substantial pre-training efficiency gains through this modality-specific parameter allocation. Under a 1-trillion-token training budget, the MoMa 1.4B model, featuring 4 text experts and 4 image experts, achieves impressive FLOPs savings: 3.7x overall, with 2.6x for text and 5.2x for image processing compared to a compute-equivalent dense baseline, measured by pre-training loss. This outperforms the standard expert-choice MoE with 8 mixed-modal experts, which achieves 3x overall FLOPs savings (3x for text, 2.8x for image). Combining MoMa with mixture-of-depths (MoD) further improves pre-training FLOPs savings to 4.2x overall (text: 3.4x, image: 5.3x), although this combination hurts performance in causal inference due to increased sensitivity to router accuracy. These results demonstrate MoMa's potential to significantly advance the efficiency of mixed-modal, early-fusion language model pre-training, paving the way for more resource-efficient and capable multimodal AI systems.

Inference Optimal VLMs Need Only One Visual Token but Larger Models

Vision Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities across various visual understanding and reasoning tasks. However, their real-world deployment is often constrained by high latency during inference due to substantial compute required to process the large number of input tokens (predominantly from the image) by the LLM. To reduce inference costs, one can either downsize the LLM or reduce the number of input image-tokens, the latter of which has been the focus of many recent works around token compression. However, it is unclear what the optimal trade-off is, as both the factors directly affect the VLM performance. We first characterize this optimal trade-off between the number of visual tokens and LLM parameters by establishing scaling laws that capture variations in performance with these two factors. Our results reveal a surprising trend: for visual reasoning tasks, the inference-optimal behavior in VLMs, i.e., minimum downstream error at any given fixed inference compute, is achieved when using the largest LLM that fits within the inference budget while minimizing visual token count - often to a single token. While the token reduction literature has mainly focused on maintaining base model performance by modestly reducing the token count (e.g., 5-10times), our results indicate that the compute-optimal inference regime requires operating under even higher token compression ratios. Based on these insights, we take some initial steps towards building approaches tailored for high token compression settings. Code is available at https://github.com/locuslab/llava-token-compression.

Computing Power and the Governance of Artificial Intelligence

Computing power, or "compute," is crucial for the development and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. As a result, governments and companies have started to leverage compute as a means to govern AI. For example, governments are investing in domestic compute capacity, controlling the flow of compute to competing countries, and subsidizing compute access to certain sectors. However, these efforts only scratch the surface of how compute can be used to govern AI development and deployment. Relative to other key inputs to AI (data and algorithms), AI-relevant compute is a particularly effective point of intervention: it is detectable, excludable, and quantifiable, and is produced via an extremely concentrated supply chain. These characteristics, alongside the singular importance of compute for cutting-edge AI models, suggest that governing compute can contribute to achieving common policy objectives, such as ensuring the safety and beneficial use of AI. More precisely, policymakers could use compute to facilitate regulatory visibility of AI, allocate resources to promote beneficial outcomes, and enforce restrictions against irresponsible or malicious AI development and usage. However, while compute-based policies and technologies have the potential to assist in these areas, there is significant variation in their readiness for implementation. Some ideas are currently being piloted, while others are hindered by the need for fundamental research. Furthermore, naive or poorly scoped approaches to compute governance carry significant risks in areas like privacy, economic impacts, and centralization of power. We end by suggesting guardrails to minimize these risks from compute governance.

REX: Revisiting Budgeted Training with an Improved Schedule

Deep learning practitioners often operate on a computational and monetary budget. Thus, it is critical to design optimization algorithms that perform well under any budget. The linear learning rate schedule is considered the best budget-aware schedule, as it outperforms most other schedules in the low budget regime. On the other hand, learning rate schedules -- such as the 30-60-90 step schedule -- are known to achieve high performance when the model can be trained for many epochs. Yet, it is often not known a priori whether one's budget will be large or small; thus, the optimal choice of learning rate schedule is made on a case-by-case basis. In this paper, we frame the learning rate schedule selection problem as a combination of i) selecting a profile (i.e., the continuous function that models the learning rate schedule), and ii) choosing a sampling rate (i.e., how frequently the learning rate is updated/sampled from this profile). We propose a novel profile and sampling rate combination called the Reflected Exponential (REX) schedule, which we evaluate across seven different experimental settings with both SGD and Adam optimizers. REX outperforms the linear schedule in the low budget regime, while matching or exceeding the performance of several state-of-the-art learning rate schedules (linear, step, exponential, cosine, step decay on plateau, and OneCycle) in both high and low budget regimes. Furthermore, REX requires no added computation, storage, or hyperparameters.

Balancing the Budget: Understanding Trade-offs Between Supervised and Preference-Based Finetuning

Post-training of Large Language Models often involves a pipeline of Supervised Finetuning (SFT) followed by Preference Finetuning (PFT) using methods like Direct Preference Optimization. Both stages require annotated data that are very different in structure and costs. We study how to optimally allocate a fixed training data budget between the two stages, through extensive experiments spanning four diverse tasks, multiple model sizes and various data annotation costs. Our findings reveal that just SFT on the base model dominates performance in low-data regimes (<1,000 annotated examples). With larger data-budgets, we observe that a combination of SFT and PFT, often with increasing portions allocated towards preference data yields optimal performance. However, completely eliminating SFT and running PFT directly on the base model yields suboptimal performance, described as the cold start problem on tasks like mathematics. We observe that this is due to the distribution shift arising from using DPO directly on the base model to elicit step-by-step reasoning. This limitation can be effectively addressed by allocating even a small portion (<10%) of the budget to SFT first, resulting in performance improvements of 15-20% on analytical benchmarks like GSM8k. These results provide actionable insights for researchers and practitioners optimizing model development under budget constraints, where high-quality data curation often represents a significant portion of the total costs of model development.

Adaptive Two-Stage Cloud Resource Scaling via Hierarchical Multi-Indicator Forecasting and Bayesian Decision-Making

The surging demand for cloud computing resources, driven by the rapid growth of sophisticated large-scale models and data centers, underscores the critical importance of efficient and adaptive resource allocation. As major tech enterprises deploy massive infrastructures with thousands of GPUs, existing cloud platforms still struggle with low resource utilization due to key challenges: capturing hierarchical indicator structures, modeling non-Gaussian distributions, and decision-making under uncertainty. To address these challenges, we propose HRAMONY, an adaptive Hierarchical Attention-based Resource Modeling and Decision-Making System. HARMONY combines hierarchical multi-indicator distribution forecasting and uncertainty-aware Bayesian decision-making. It introduces a novel hierarchical attention mechanism that comprehensively models complex inter-indicator dependencies, enabling accurate predictions that can adapt to evolving environment states. By transforming Gaussian projections into adaptive non-Gaussian distributions via Normalizing Flows. Crucially, HARMONY leverages the full predictive distributions in an adaptive Bayesian process, proactively incorporating uncertainties to optimize resource allocation while robustly meeting SLA constraints under varying conditions. Extensive evaluations across four large-scale cloud datasets demonstrate HARMONY's state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming nine established methods. A month-long real-world deployment validated HARMONY's substantial practical impact, realizing over 35,000 GPU hours in savings and translating to $100K+ in cost reduction, showcasing its remarkable economic value through adaptive, uncertainty-aware scaling. Our code is available at https://github.com/Floating-LY/HARMONY1.

Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters

Enabling LLMs to improve their outputs by using more test-time computation is a critical step towards building generally self-improving agents that can operate on open-ended natural language. In this paper, we study the scaling of inference-time computation in LLMs, with a focus on answering the question: if an LLM is allowed to use a fixed but non-trivial amount of inference-time compute, how much can it improve its performance on a challenging prompt? Answering this question has implications not only on the achievable performance of LLMs, but also on the future of LLM pretraining and how one should tradeoff inference-time and pre-training compute. Despite its importance, little research attempted to understand the scaling behaviors of various test-time inference methods. Moreover, current work largely provides negative results for a number of these strategies. In this work, we analyze two primary mechanisms to scale test-time computation: (1) searching against dense, process-based verifier reward models; and (2) updating the model's distribution over a response adaptively, given the prompt at test time. We find that in both cases, the effectiveness of different approaches to scaling test-time compute critically varies depending on the difficulty of the prompt. This observation motivates applying a "compute-optimal" scaling strategy, which acts to most effectively allocate test-time compute adaptively per prompt. Using this compute-optimal strategy, we can improve the efficiency of test-time compute scaling by more than 4x compared to a best-of-N baseline. Additionally, in a FLOPs-matched evaluation, we find that on problems where a smaller base model attains somewhat non-trivial success rates, test-time compute can be used to outperform a 14x larger model.