Daily Papers

The Russian Financial Statements Database (RFSD) is an open, harmonized collection of annual unconsolidated financial statements of the universe of Russian firms in 2011-2023. It is the first open data set with information on every active firm in the country, including non-filing firms. With 56.6 million geolocated firm-year observations gathered from two official sources, the RFSD features multiple end-user quality-of-life improvements such as data imputation, statement articulation, harmonization across data providers and formats, and data enrichment. Extensive internal and external validation shows that most statements articulate well while their aggregates display higher correlation with the regional GDP than the previous gridded GDP data products. We also examine the direction and magnitude of the reporting bias by comparing the universe of firms that are required to file with the actual filers. The RFSD can be used in various economic applications as diverse as calibration of micro-founded models, estimation of markups and productivity, or assessing industry organization and market power.

Quantifying the similarity between a group of companies has proven to be useful for several purposes, including company benchmarking, fraud detection, and searching for investment opportunities. This exercise can be done using a variety of data sources, such as company activity data and financial data. However, ledger account data is widely available and is standardized to a large extent. Such ledger accounts within a financial statement can be represented by means of a tree, i.e. a special type of graph, representing both the values of the ledger accounts and the relationships between them. Given their broad availability and rich information content, financial statements form a prime data source based on which company similarities or distances could be computed. In this paper, we present a graph distance metric that enables one to compute the similarity between the financial statements of two companies. We conduct a comprehensive experimental study using real-world financial data to demonstrate the usefulness of our proposed distance metric. The experimental results show promising results on a number of use cases. This method may be useful for investors looking for investment opportunities, government officials attempting to identify fraudulent companies, and accountants looking to benchmark a group of companies based on their financial statements.

The sheer volume of financial statements makes it difficult for humans to access and analyze a business's financials. Robust numerical reasoning likewise faces unique challenges in this domain. In this work, we focus on answering deep questions over financial data, aiming to automate the analysis of a large corpus of financial documents. In contrast to existing tasks on general domain, the finance domain includes complex numerical reasoning and understanding of heterogeneous representations. To facilitate analytical progress, we propose a new large-scale dataset, FinQA, with Question-Answering pairs over Financial reports, written by financial experts. We also annotate the gold reasoning programs to ensure full explainability. We further introduce baselines and conduct comprehensive experiments in our dataset. The results demonstrate that popular, large, pre-trained models fall far short of expert humans in acquiring finance knowledge and in complex multi-step numerical reasoning on that knowledge. Our dataset -- the first of its kind -- should therefore enable significant, new community research into complex application domains. The dataset and code are publicly availablehttps://github.com/czyssrs/FinQA.

Financial forecasting has been an important and active area of machine learning research because of the challenges it presents and the potential rewards that even minor improvements in prediction accuracy or forecasting may entail. Traditionally, financial forecasting has heavily relied on quantitative indicators and metrics derived from structured financial statements. Earnings conference call data, including text and audio, is an important source of unstructured data that has been used for various prediction tasks using deep earning and related approaches. However, current deep learning-based methods are limited in the way that they deal with numeric data; numbers are typically treated as plain-text tokens without taking advantage of their underlying numeric structure. This paper describes a numeric-oriented hierarchical transformer model to predict stock returns, and financial risk using multi-modal aligned earnings calls data by taking advantage of the different categories of numbers (monetary, temporal, percentages etc.) and their magnitude. We present the results of a comprehensive evaluation of NumHTML against several state-of-the-art baselines using a real-world publicly available dataset. The results indicate that NumHTML significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art across a variety of evaluation metrics and that it has the potential to offer significant financial gains in a practical trading context.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly address domain-specific problems, their application in the financial sector has expanded rapidly. Tasks that are both highly valuable and time-consuming, such as analyzing financial statements, disclosures, and related documents, are now being effectively tackled using LLMs. This paper details the development of a high-performance, finance-specific Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) system for the ACM-ICAIF '24 FinanceRAG competition. We optimized performance through ablation studies on query expansion and corpus refinement during the pre-retrieval phase. To enhance retrieval accuracy, we employed multiple reranker models. Notably, we introduced an efficient method for managing long context sizes during the generation phase, significantly improving response quality without sacrificing performance. We ultimately achieve 2nd place in the FinanceRAG Challenge. Our key contributions include: (1) pre-retrieval ablation analysis, (2) an enhanced retrieval algorithm, and (3) a novel approach for long-context management. This work demonstrates the potential of LLMs in effectively processing and analyzing complex financial data to generate accurate and valuable insights. The source code and further details are available at https://github.com/cv-lee/FinanceRAG.

Unequal access to costly datasets essential for empirical research has long hindered researchers from disadvantaged institutions, limiting their ability to contribute to their fields and advance their careers. Recent breakthroughs in Large Language Models (LLMs) have the potential to democratize data access by automating data collection from unstructured sources. We develop and evaluate a novel methodology using GPT-4o-mini within a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) framework to collect data from corporate disclosures. Our approach achieves human-level accuracy in collecting CEO pay ratios from approximately 10,000 proxy statements and Critical Audit Matters (CAMs) from more than 12,000 10-K filings, with LLM processing times of 9 and 40 minutes respectively, each at a cost under $10. This stands in stark contrast to the hundreds of hours needed for manual collection or the thousands of dollars required for commercial database subscriptions. To foster a more inclusive research community by empowering researchers with limited resources to explore new avenues of inquiry, we share our methodology and the resulting datasets.

Financial reports offer critical insights into a company's operations, yet their extensive length typically spanning 30 40 pages poses challenges for swift decision making in dynamic markets. To address this, we leveraged finetuned Large Language Models (LLMs) to distill key indicators and operational metrics from these reports basis questions from the user. We devised a method to locate critical data, and leverage the FinQA dataset to fine-tune both Llama-2 7B and T5 models for customized question answering. We achieved results comparable to baseline on the final numerical answer, a competitive accuracy in numerical reasoning and calculation.

Annual Reports of publicly listed companies contain vital information about their financial health which can help assess the potential impact on Stock price of the firm. These reports are comprehensive in nature, going up to, and sometimes exceeding, 100 pages. Analysing these reports is cumbersome even for a single firm, let alone the whole universe of firms that exist. Over the years, financial experts have become proficient in extracting valuable information from these documents relatively quickly. However, this requires years of practice and experience. This paper aims to simplify the process of assessing Annual Reports of all the firms by leveraging the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). The insights generated by the LLM are compiled in a Quant styled dataset and augmented by historical stock price data. A Machine Learning model is then trained with LLM outputs as features. The walkforward test results show promising outperformance wrt S&P500 returns. This paper intends to provide a framework for future work in this direction. To facilitate this, the code has been released as open source.

Financial analysis is an important tool for evaluating company performance. Practitioners work to answer financial questions to make profitable investment decisions, and use advanced quantitative analyses to do so. As a result, Financial Question Answering (QA) is a question answering task that requires deep reasoning about numbers. Furthermore, it is unknown how well pre-trained language models can reason in the financial domain. The current state-of-the-art requires a retriever to collect relevant facts about the financial question from the text and a generator to produce a valid financial program and a final answer. However, recently large language models like GPT-3 have achieved state-of-the-art performance on wide variety of tasks with just a few shot examples. We run several experiments with GPT-3 and find that a separate retrieval model and logic engine continue to be essential components to achieving SOTA performance in this task, particularly due to the precise nature of financial questions and the complex information stored in financial documents. With this understanding, our refined prompt-engineering approach on GPT-3 achieves near SOTA accuracy without any fine-tuning.

Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) KPIs assess an organization's performance on issues such as climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, water consumption, waste management, human rights, diversity, and policies. ESG reports convey this valuable quantitative information through tables. Unfortunately, extracting this information is difficult due to high variability in the table structure as well as content. We propose Statements, a novel domain agnostic data structure for extracting quantitative facts and related information. We propose translating tables to statements as a new supervised deep-learning universal information extraction task. We introduce SemTabNet - a dataset of over 100K annotated tables. Investigating a family of T5-based Statement Extraction Models, our best model generates statements which are 82% similar to the ground-truth (compared to baseline of 21%). We demonstrate the advantages of statements by applying our model to over 2700 tables from ESG reports. The homogeneous nature of statements permits exploratory data analysis on expansive information found in large collections of ESG reports.

FinanceQA is a testing suite that evaluates LLMs' performance on complex numerical financial analysis tasks that mirror real-world investment work. Despite recent advances, current LLMs fail to meet the strict accuracy requirements of financial institutions, with models failing approximately 60% of realistic tasks that mimic on-the-job analyses at hedge funds, private equity firms, investment banks, and other financial institutions. The primary challenges include hand-spreading metrics, adhering to standard accounting and corporate valuation conventions, and performing analysis under incomplete information - particularly in multi-step tasks requiring assumption generation. This performance gap highlights the disconnect between existing LLM capabilities and the demands of professional financial analysis that are inadequately tested by current testing architectures. Results show that higher-quality training data is needed to support such tasks, which we experiment with using OpenAI's fine-tuning API. FinanceQA is publicly released at [this https URL](https://huggingface.co/datasets/AfterQuery/FinanceQA).

Several large-scale datasets (e.g., WikiSQL, Spider) for developing natural language interfaces to databases have recently been proposed. These datasets cover a wide breadth of domains but fall short on some essential domains, such as finance and accounting. Given that accounting databases are used worldwide, particularly by non-technical people, there is an imminent need to develop models that could help extract information from accounting databases via natural language queries. In this resource paper, we aim to fill this gap by proposing a new large-scale Text-to-SQL dataset for the accounting and financial domain: BookSQL. The dataset consists of 100k natural language queries-SQL pairs, and accounting databases of 1 million records. We experiment with and analyze existing state-of-the-art models (including GPT-4) for the Text-to-SQL task on BookSQL. We find significant performance gaps, thus pointing towards developing more focused models for this domain.

This chapter presents a calendar rebalancing approach to portfolios of stocks in the Indian stock market. Ten important sectors of the Indian economy are first selected. For each of these sectors, the top ten stocks are identified based on their free-float market capitalization values. Using the ten stocks in each sector, a sector-specific portfolio is designed. In this study, the historical stock prices are used from January 4, 2021, to September 20, 2023 (NSE Website). The portfolios are designed based on the training data from January 4, 2021 to June 30, 2022. The performances of the portfolios are tested over the period from July 1, 2022, to September 20, 2023. The calendar rebalancing approach presented in the chapter is based on a yearly rebalancing method. However, the method presented is perfectly flexible and can be adapted for weekly or monthly rebalancing. The rebalanced portfolios for the ten sectors are analyzed in detail for their performances. The performance results are not only indicative of the relative performances of the sectors over the training (i.e., in-sample) data and test (out-of-sample) data, but they also reflect the overall effectiveness of the proposed portfolio rebalancing approach.

Every fiscal quarter, companies hold earnings calls in which company executives respond to questions from analysts. After these calls, analysts often change their price target recommendations, which are used in equity research reports to help investors make decisions. In this paper, we examine analysts' decision making behavior as it pertains to the language content of earnings calls. We identify a set of 20 pragmatic features of analysts' questions which we correlate with analysts' pre-call investor recommendations. We also analyze the degree to which semantic and pragmatic features from an earnings call complement market data in predicting analysts' post-call changes in price targets. Our results show that earnings calls are moderately predictive of analysts' decisions even though these decisions are influenced by a number of other factors including private communication with company executives and market conditions. A breakdown of model errors indicates disparate performance on calls from different market sectors.

In recent years, multimodal benchmarks for general domains have guided the rapid development of multimodal models on general tasks. However, the financial field has its peculiarities. It features unique graphical images (e.g., candlestick charts, technical indicator charts) and possesses a wealth of specialized financial knowledge (e.g., futures, turnover rate). Therefore, benchmarks from general fields often fail to measure the performance of multimodal models in the financial domain, and thus cannot effectively guide the rapid development of large financial models. To promote the development of large financial multimodal models, we propose MME-Finance, an bilingual open-ended and practical usage-oriented Visual Question Answering (VQA) benchmark. The characteristics of our benchmark are finance and expertise, which include constructing charts that reflect the actual usage needs of users (e.g., computer screenshots and mobile photography), creating questions according to the preferences in financial domain inquiries, and annotating questions by experts with 10+ years of experience in the financial industry. Additionally, we have developed a custom-designed financial evaluation system in which visual information is first introduced in the multi-modal evaluation process. Extensive experimental evaluations of 19 mainstream MLLMs are conducted to test their perception, reasoning, and cognition capabilities. The results indicate that models performing well on general benchmarks cannot do well on MME-Finance; for instance, the top-performing open-source and closed-source models obtain 65.69 (Qwen2VL-72B) and 63.18 (GPT-4o), respectively. Their performance is particularly poor in categories most relevant to finance, such as candlestick charts and technical indicator charts. In addition, we propose a Chinese version, which helps compare performance of MLLMs under a Chinese context.