Daily Papers

Existing image inpainting methods often produce artifacts when dealing with large holes in real applications. To address this challenge, we propose an iterative inpainting method with a feedback mechanism. Specifically, we introduce a deep generative model which not only outputs an inpainting result but also a corresponding confidence map. Using this map as feedback, it progressively fills the hole by trusting only high-confidence pixels inside the hole at each iteration and focuses on the remaining pixels in the next iteration. As it reuses partial predictions from the previous iterations as known pixels, this process gradually improves the result. In addition, we propose a guided upsampling network to enable generation of high-resolution inpainting results. We achieve this by extending the Contextual Attention module to borrow high-resolution feature patches in the input image. Furthermore, to mimic real object removal scenarios, we collect a large object mask dataset and synthesize more realistic training data that better simulates user inputs. Experiments show that our method significantly outperforms existing methods in both quantitative and qualitative evaluations. More results and Web APP are available at https://zengxianyu.github.io/iic.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently been achieving state-of-the-art performance on a variety of pattern-recognition tasks, most notably visual classification problems. Given that DNNs are now able to classify objects in images with near-human-level performance, questions naturally arise as to what differences remain between computer and human vision. A recent study revealed that changing an image (e.g. of a lion) in a way imperceptible to humans can cause a DNN to label the image as something else entirely (e.g. mislabeling a lion a library). Here we show a related result: it is easy to produce images that are completely unrecognizable to humans, but that state-of-the-art DNNs believe to be recognizable objects with 99.99% confidence (e.g. labeling with certainty that white noise static is a lion). Specifically, we take convolutional neural networks trained to perform well on either the ImageNet or MNIST datasets and then find images with evolutionary algorithms or gradient ascent that DNNs label with high confidence as belonging to each dataset class. It is possible to produce images totally unrecognizable to human eyes that DNNs believe with near certainty are familiar objects, which we call "fooling images" (more generally, fooling examples). Our results shed light on interesting differences between human vision and current DNNs, and raise questions about the generality of DNN computer vision.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) exhibit remarkable performance for Novel View Synthesis (NVS) given a set of 2D images. However, NeRF training requires accurate camera pose for each input view, typically obtained by Structure-from-Motion (SfM) pipelines. Recent works have attempted to relax this constraint, but they still often rely on decent initial poses which they can refine. Here we aim at removing the requirement for pose initialization. We present Incremental CONfidence (ICON), an optimization procedure for training NeRFs from 2D video frames. ICON only assumes smooth camera motion to estimate initial guess for poses. Further, ICON introduces ``confidence": an adaptive measure of model quality used to dynamically reweight gradients. ICON relies on high-confidence poses to learn NeRF, and high-confidence 3D structure (as encoded by NeRF) to learn poses. We show that ICON, without prior pose initialization, achieves superior performance in both CO3D and HO3D versus methods which use SfM pose.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have acquired ubiquitous attention for their performances across diverse domains. Our study here searches through LLMs' cognitive abilities and confidence dynamics. We dive deep into understanding the alignment between their self-assessed confidence and actual performance. We exploit these models with diverse sets of questionnaires and real-world scenarios and extract how LLMs exhibit confidence in their responses. Our findings reveal intriguing instances where models demonstrate high confidence even when they answer incorrectly. This is reminiscent of the Dunning-Kruger effect observed in human psychology. In contrast, there are cases where models exhibit low confidence with correct answers revealing potential underestimation biases. Our results underscore the need for a deeper understanding of their cognitive processes. By examining the nuances of LLMs' self-assessment mechanism, this investigation provides noteworthy revelations that serve to advance the functionalities and broaden the potential applications of these formidable language models.

The partial label challenge in Multi-Label Class-Incremental Learning (MLCIL) arises when only the new classes are labeled during training, while past and future labels remain unavailable. This issue leads to a proliferation of false-positive errors due to erroneously high confidence multi-label predictions, exacerbating catastrophic forgetting within the disjoint label space. In this paper, we aim to refine multi-label confidence calibration in MLCIL and propose a Confidence Self-Calibration (CSC) approach. Firstly, for label relationship calibration, we introduce a class-incremental graph convolutional network that bridges the isolated label spaces by constructing learnable, dynamically extended label relationship graph. Then, for confidence calibration, we present a max-entropy regularization for each multi-label increment, facilitating confidence self-calibration through the penalization of over-confident output distributions. Our approach attains new state-of-the-art results in MLCIL tasks on both MS-COCO and PASCAL VOC datasets, with the calibration of label confidences confirmed through our methodology.

Recent advancements in video large multimodal models (LMMs) have significantly improved their video understanding and reasoning capabilities. However, their performance drops on out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks that are underrepresented in training data. Traditional methods like fine-tuning on OOD datasets are impractical due to high computational costs. While In-context learning (ICL) with demonstration examples has shown promising generalization performance in language tasks and image-language tasks without fine-tuning, applying ICL to video-language tasks faces challenges due to the limited context length in Video LMMs, as videos require longer token lengths. To address these issues, we propose VideoICL, a novel video in-context learning framework for OOD tasks that introduces a similarity-based relevant example selection strategy and a confidence-based iterative inference approach. This allows to select the most relevant examples and rank them based on similarity, to be used for inference. If the generated response has low confidence, our framework selects new examples and performs inference again, iteratively refining the results until a high-confidence response is obtained. This approach improves OOD video understanding performance by extending effective context length without incurring high costs. The experimental results on multiple benchmarks demonstrate significant performance gains, especially in domain-specific scenarios, laying the groundwork for broader video comprehension applications. Code will be released at https://github.com/KangsanKim07/VideoICL

Source-Free domain adaptive Object Detection (SFOD) is a promising strategy for deploying trained detectors to new, unlabeled domains without accessing source data, addressing significant concerns around data privacy and efficiency. Most SFOD methods leverage a Mean-Teacher (MT) self-training paradigm relying heavily on High-confidence Pseudo Labels (HPL). However, these HPL often overlook small instances that undergo significant appearance changes with domain shifts. Additionally, HPL ignore instances with low confidence due to the scarcity of training samples, resulting in biased adaptation toward familiar instances from the source domain. To address this limitation, we introduce the Low-confidence Pseudo Label Distillation (LPLD) loss within the Mean-Teacher based SFOD framework. This novel approach is designed to leverage the proposals from Region Proposal Network (RPN), which potentially encompasses hard-to-detect objects in unfamiliar domains. Initially, we extract HPL using a standard pseudo-labeling technique and mine a set of Low-confidence Pseudo Labels (LPL) from proposals generated by RPN, leaving those that do not overlap significantly with HPL. These LPL are further refined by leveraging class-relation information and reducing the effect of inherent noise for the LPLD loss calculation. Furthermore, we use feature distance to adaptively weight the LPLD loss to focus on LPL containing a larger foreground area. Our method outperforms previous SFOD methods on four cross-domain object detection benchmarks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our LPLD loss leads to effective adaptation by reducing false negatives and facilitating the use of domain-invariant knowledge from the source model. Code is available at https://github.com/junia3/LPLD.

Despite their vast capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle with generating reliable outputs, frequently producing high-confidence inaccuracies known as hallucinations. Addressing this challenge, our research introduces InternalInspector, a novel framework designed to enhance confidence estimation in LLMs by leveraging contrastive learning on internal states including attention states, feed-forward states, and activation states of all layers. Unlike existing methods that primarily focus on the final activation state, InternalInspector conducts a comprehensive analysis across all internal states of every layer to accurately identify both correct and incorrect prediction processes. By benchmarking InternalInspector against existing confidence estimation methods across various natural language understanding and generation tasks, including factual question answering, commonsense reasoning, and reading comprehension, InternalInspector achieves significantly higher accuracy in aligning the estimated confidence scores with the correctness of the LLM's predictions and lower calibration error. Furthermore, InternalInspector excels at HaluEval, a hallucination detection benchmark, outperforming other internal-based confidence estimation methods in this task.

Large language models (LLMs) often generate inaccurate or fabricated information and generally fail to indicate their confidence, which limits their broader applications. Previous work elicits confidence from LLMs by direct or self-consistency prompting, or constructing specific datasets for supervised finetuning. The prompting-based approaches have inferior performance, and the training-based approaches are limited to binary or inaccurate group-level confidence estimates. In this work, we present the advanced SaySelf, a training framework that teaches LLMs to express more accurate fine-grained confidence estimates. In addition, beyond the confidence scores, SaySelf initiates the process of directing LLMs to produce self-reflective rationales that clearly identify gaps in their parametric knowledge and explain their uncertainty. This is achieved by using an LLM to automatically summarize the uncertainties in specific knowledge via natural language. The summarization is based on the analysis of the inconsistency in multiple sampled reasoning chains, and the resulting data is utilized for supervised fine-tuning. Moreover, we utilize reinforcement learning with a meticulously crafted reward function to calibrate the confidence estimates, motivating LLMs to deliver accurate, high-confidence predictions and to penalize overconfidence in erroneous outputs. Experimental results in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of SaySelf in reducing the confidence calibration error and maintaining the task performance. We show that the generated self-reflective rationales are reasonable and can further contribute to the calibration. The code is made public at https://github.com/xu1868/SaySelf.

We show that a GPT-3 model can learn to express uncertainty about its own answers in natural language -- without use of model logits. When given a question, the model generates both an answer and a level of confidence (e.g. "90% confidence" or "high confidence"). These levels map to probabilities that are well calibrated. The model also remains moderately calibrated under distribution shift, and is sensitive to uncertainty in its own answers, rather than imitating human examples. To our knowledge, this is the first time a model has been shown to express calibrated uncertainty about its own answers in natural language. For testing calibration, we introduce the CalibratedMath suite of tasks. We compare the calibration of uncertainty expressed in words ("verbalized probability") to uncertainty extracted from model logits. Both kinds of uncertainty are capable of generalizing calibration under distribution shift. We also provide evidence that GPT-3's ability to generalize calibration depends on pre-trained latent representations that correlate with epistemic uncertainty over its answers.

A sample of 60,410 bona fide optical quasars with astrometric proper motions in Gaia EDR3 and spectroscopic redshifts above 0.5 in an oval 8400 square degree area of the sky is constructed. Using orthogonal Zernike functions of polar coordinates, the proper motion fields are fitted in a weighted least-squares adjustment of the entire sample and of six equal bins of sorted redshifts. The overall fit with 37 Zernike functions reveals a statistically significant pattern, which is likely to be of instrumental origin. The main feature of this pattern is a chain of peaks and dips mostly in the R.A. component with an amplitude of 25~muas yr^{-1}. This field is subtracted from each of the six analogous fits for quasars grouped by redshifts covering the range 0.5 through 7.03, with median values 0.72, 1.00, 1.25, 1.52, 1.83, 2.34. The resulting residual patterns are noisier, with formal uncertainties up to 8~muas yr^{-1} in the central part of the area. We detect a single high-confidence Zernike term for R.A. proper motion components of quasars with redshifts around 1.52 representing a general gradient of 30 muas yr^{-1} over 150degr on the sky. We do not find any small- or medium-scale systemic variations of the residual proper motion field as functions of redshift above the 2.5,sigma significance level.

We present a catalog of 34 new candidate (13 high confidence) isolated, young stellar systems within the Virgo galaxy cluster identified through a citizen science search of public optical and ultraviolet imaging. "Blue blobs" are a class of blue, faint, isolated, extremely low stellar mass, and metal-rich star-forming clouds embedded in the hot intracluster medium of the Virgo cluster. Only six blue blobs were known previously and here we confirm an additional six of our candidates through velocity and metallicity measurements from follow-up optical spectroscopy on the Hobby-Eberly Telescope (HET). Our 13 high confidence candidates (including the six confirmed) have properties consistent with prior known blue blobs and are inconsistent with being low-mass galaxies. Most candidates are concentrated in relatively dense regions, roughly following filamentary structures within the cluster, but avoiding its center. Three of our candidates are likely the stellar counterparts of known 'optically dark' clouds of neutral hydrogen in the cluster, while a further four are widely separated extensions to previously known blue blobs. The properties of our new candidates are consistent with previous conclusions that blue blobs likely originated from ram pressure stripping events, however, their locations in velocity--projected cluster-centric radius phase-space imply that their parent galaxies are not on their first infall into the cluster. Through our ongoing follow-up program with HET we aim to confirm additional candidates, however, detailed understanding of the stellar populations and star formation histories of blue blobs will require JWST observations.

Drone detection is a challenging object detection task where visibility conditions and quality of the images may be unfavorable, and detections might become difficult due to complex backgrounds, small visible objects, and hard to distinguish objects. Both provide high confidence for drone detections, and eliminating false detections requires efficient algorithms and approaches. Our previous work, which uses YOLOv5, uses both real and synthetic data and a Kalman-based tracker to track the detections and increase their confidence using temporal information. Our current work improves on the previous approach by combining several improvements. We used a more diverse dataset combining multiple sources and combined with synthetic samples chosen from a large synthetic dataset based on the error analysis of the base model. Also, to obtain more resilient confidence scores for objects, we introduced a classification component that discriminates whether the object is a drone or not. Finally, we developed a more advanced scoring algorithm for object tracking that we use to adjust localization confidence. Furthermore, the proposed technique won 1st Place in the Drone vs. Bird Challenge (Workshop on Small-Drone Surveillance, Detection and Counteraction Techniques at ICIAP 2021).

Overfitting negatively impacts the generalization ability of deep neural networks (DNNs) in both natural and adversarial training. Existing methods struggle to consistently address different types of overfitting, typically designing strategies that focus separately on either natural or adversarial patterns. In this work, we adopt a unified perspective by solely focusing on natural patterns to explore different types of overfitting. Specifically, we examine the memorization effect in DNNs and reveal a shared behaviour termed over-memorization, which impairs their generalization capacity. This behaviour manifests as DNNs suddenly becoming high-confidence in predicting certain training patterns and retaining a persistent memory for them. Furthermore, when DNNs over-memorize an adversarial pattern, they tend to simultaneously exhibit high-confidence prediction for the corresponding natural pattern. These findings motivate us to holistically mitigate different types of overfitting by hindering the DNNs from over-memorization natural patterns. To this end, we propose a general framework, Distraction Over-Memorization (DOM), which explicitly prevents over-memorization by either removing or augmenting the high-confidence natural patterns. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in mitigating overfitting across various training paradigms.

Diffusion-based generative models have shown great potential for image synthesis, but there is a lack of research on the security and privacy risks they may pose. In this paper, we investigate the vulnerability of diffusion models to Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs), a common privacy concern. Our results indicate that existing MIAs designed for GANs or VAE are largely ineffective on diffusion models, either due to inapplicable scenarios (e.g., requiring the discriminator of GANs) or inappropriate assumptions (e.g., closer distances between synthetic samples and member samples). To address this gap, we propose Step-wise Error Comparing Membership Inference (SecMI), a query-based MIA that infers memberships by assessing the matching of forward process posterior estimation at each timestep. SecMI follows the common overfitting assumption in MIA where member samples normally have smaller estimation errors, compared with hold-out samples. We consider both the standard diffusion models, e.g., DDPM, and the text-to-image diffusion models, e.g., Latent Diffusion Models and Stable Diffusion. Experimental results demonstrate that our methods precisely infer the membership with high confidence on both of the two scenarios across multiple different datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/jinhaoduan/SecMI.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved excellent performances in various tasks. However, fine-tuning an LLM requires extensive supervision. Human, on the other hand, may improve their reasoning abilities by self-thinking without external inputs. In this work, we demonstrate that an LLM is also capable of self-improving with only unlabeled datasets. We use a pre-trained LLM to generate "high-confidence" rationale-augmented answers for unlabeled questions using Chain-of-Thought prompting and self-consistency, and fine-tune the LLM using those self-generated solutions as target outputs. We show that our approach improves the general reasoning ability of a 540B-parameter LLM (74.4%->82.1% on GSM8K, 78.2%->83.0% on DROP, 90.0%->94.4% on OpenBookQA, and 63.4%->67.9% on ANLI-A3) and achieves state-of-the-art-level performance, without any ground truth label. We conduct ablation studies and show that fine-tuning on reasoning is critical for self-improvement.

Algorithms such as Differentially Private SGD enable training machine learning models with formal privacy guarantees. However, there is a discrepancy between the protection that such algorithms guarantee in theory and the protection they afford in practice. An emerging strand of work empirically estimates the protection afforded by differentially private training as a confidence interval for the privacy budget varepsilon spent on training a model. Existing approaches derive confidence intervals for varepsilon from confidence intervals for the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. Unfortunately, obtaining narrow high-confidence intervals for epsilon using this method requires an impractically large sample size and training as many models as samples. We propose a novel Bayesian method that greatly reduces sample size, and adapt and validate a heuristic to draw more than one sample per trained model. Our Bayesian method exploits the hypothesis testing interpretation of differential privacy to obtain a posterior for varepsilon (not just a confidence interval) from the joint posterior of the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. For the same sample size and confidence, we derive confidence intervals for varepsilon around 40% narrower than prior work. The heuristic, which we adapt from label-only DP, can be used to further reduce the number of trained models needed to get enough samples by up to 2 orders of magnitude.

Generalizable neural surface reconstruction techniques have attracted great attention in recent years. However, they encounter limitations of low confidence depth distribution and inaccurate surface reasoning due to the oversimplified volume rendering process employed. In this paper, we present Reconstruction TRansformer (ReTR), a novel framework that leverages the transformer architecture to redesign the rendering process, enabling complex render interaction modeling. It introduces a learnable meta-ray token and utilizes the cross-attention mechanism to simulate the interaction of rendering process with sampled points and render the observed color. Meanwhile, by operating within a high-dimensional feature space rather than the color space, ReTR mitigates sensitivity to projected colors in source views. Such improvements result in accurate surface assessment with high confidence. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on various datasets, showcasing how our method outperforms the current state-of-the-art approaches in terms of reconstruction quality and generalization ability. Our code is available at https://github.com/YixunLiang/ReTR.

Adversarial examples cause neural networks to produce incorrect outputs with high confidence. Although adversarial training is one of the most effective forms of defense against adversarial examples, unfortunately, a large gap exists between test accuracy and training accuracy in adversarial training. In this paper, we identify Adversarial Feature Overfitting (AFO), which may cause poor adversarially robust generalization, and we show that adversarial training can overshoot the optimal point in terms of robust generalization, leading to AFO in our simple Gaussian model. Considering these theoretical results, we present soft labeling as a solution to the AFO problem. Furthermore, we propose Adversarial Vertex mixup (AVmixup), a soft-labeled data augmentation approach for improving adversarially robust generalization. We complement our theoretical analysis with experiments on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, SVHN, and Tiny ImageNet, and show that AVmixup significantly improves the robust generalization performance and that it reduces the trade-off between standard accuracy and adversarial robustness.

This paper investigates the radioactivity of LLM-generated texts, i.e. whether it is possible to detect that such input was used as training data. Conventional methods like membership inference can carry out this detection with some level of accuracy. We show that watermarked training data leaves traces easier to detect and much more reliable than membership inference. We link the contamination level to the watermark robustness, its proportion in the training set, and the fine-tuning process. We notably demonstrate that training on watermarked synthetic instructions can be detected with high confidence (p-value < 1e-5) even when as little as 5% of training text is watermarked. Thus, LLM watermarking, originally designed for detecting machine-generated text, gives the ability to easily identify if the outputs of a watermarked LLM were used to fine-tune another LLM.

Weakly supervised semantic segmentation (WSSS) typically utilizes limited semantic annotations to obtain initial Class Activation Maps (CAMs). However, due to the inadequate coupling between class activation responses and semantic information in high-dimensional space, the CAM is prone to object co-occurrence or under-activation, resulting in inferior recognition accuracy. To tackle this issue, we propose DOEI, Dual Optimization of Embedding Information, a novel approach that reconstructs embedding representations through semantic-aware attention weight matrices to optimize the expression capability of embedding information. Specifically, DOEI amplifies tokens with high confidence and suppresses those with low confidence during the class-to-patch interaction. This alignment of activation responses with semantic information strengthens the propagation and decoupling of target features, enabling the generated embeddings to more accurately represent target features in high-level semantic space. In addition, we propose a hybrid-feature alignment module in DOEI that combines RGB values, embedding-guided features, and self-attention weights to increase the reliability of candidate tokens. Comprehensive experiments show that DOEI is an effective plug-and-play module that empowers state-of-the-art visual transformer-based WSSS models to significantly improve the quality of CAMs and segmentation performance on popular benchmarks, including PASCAL VOC (+3.6%, +1.5%, +1.2% mIoU) and MS COCO (+1.2%, +1.6% mIoU). Code will be available at https://github.com/AIGeeksGroup/DOEI.

Active learning (AL) in open set scenarios presents a novel challenge of identifying the most valuable examples in an unlabeled data pool that comprises data from both known and unknown classes. Traditional methods prioritize selecting informative examples with low confidence, with the risk of mistakenly selecting unknown-class examples with similarly low confidence. Recent methods favor the most probable known-class examples, with the risk of picking simple already mastered examples. In this paper, we attempt to query examples that are both likely from known classes and highly informative, and propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty-based Active Learning (BUAL) framework. Specifically, we achieve this by first pushing the unknown class examples toward regions with high-confidence predictions, i.e., the proposed Random Label Negative Learning method. Then, we propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty sampling strategy by jointly estimating uncertainty posed by both positive and negative learning to perform consistent and stable sampling. BUAL successfully extends existing uncertainty-based AL methods to complex open-set scenarios. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets with varying openness demonstrate that BUAL achieves state-of-the-art performance. The code is available at https://github.com/chenchenzong/BUAL.

Deep clustering has exhibited remarkable performance; however, the overconfidence problem, i.e., the estimated confidence for a sample belonging to a particular cluster greatly exceeds its actual prediction accuracy, has been overlooked in prior research. To tackle this critical issue, we pioneer the development of a calibrated deep clustering framework. Specifically, we propose a novel dual-head deep clustering pipeline that can effectively calibrate the estimated confidence and the actual accuracy. The calibration head adjusts the overconfident predictions of the clustering head using regularization methods, generating prediction confidence and pseudo-labels that match the model learning status. This calibration process also guides the clustering head in dynamically selecting reliable high-confidence samples for training. Additionally, we introduce an effective network initialization strategy that enhances both training speed and network robustness. Extensive experiments demonstrate the proposed calibrated deep clustering framework not only surpasses state-of-the-art deep clustering methods by approximately 10 times in terms of expected calibration error but also significantly outperforms them in terms of clustering accuracy.

Despite the remarkable success of deep neural networks in a myriad of settings, several works have demonstrated their overwhelming sensitivity to near-imperceptible perturbations, known as adversarial attacks. On the other hand, prior works have also observed that deep networks can be under-sensitive, wherein large-magnitude perturbations in input space do not induce appreciable changes to network activations. In this work, we study in detail the phenomenon of under-sensitivity in vision models such as CNNs and Transformers, and present techniques to study the geometry and extent of "equi-confidence" level sets of such networks. We propose a Level Set Traversal algorithm that iteratively explores regions of high confidence with respect to the input space using orthogonal components of the local gradients. Given a source image, we use this algorithm to identify inputs that lie in the same equi-confidence level set as the source image despite being perceptually similar to arbitrary images from other classes. We further observe that the source image is linearly connected by a high-confidence path to these inputs, uncovering a star-like structure for level sets of deep networks. Furthermore, we attempt to identify and estimate the extent of these connected higher-dimensional regions over which the model maintains a high degree of confidence. The code for this project is publicly available at https://github.com/SriramB-98/blindspots-neurips-sub

Semi-supervised semantic segmentation (SSS) is an important task that utilizes both labeled and unlabeled data to reduce expenses on labeling training examples. However, the effectiveness of SSS algorithms is limited by the difficulty of fully exploiting the potential of unlabeled data. To address this, we propose a dual-level Siamese structure network (DSSN) for pixel-wise contrastive learning. By aligning positive pairs with a pixel-wise contrastive loss using strong augmented views in both low-level image space and high-level feature space, the proposed DSSN is designed to maximize the utilization of available unlabeled data. Additionally, we introduce a novel class-aware pseudo-label selection strategy for weak-to-strong supervision, which addresses the limitations of most existing methods that do not perform selection or apply a predefined threshold for all classes. Specifically, our strategy selects the top high-confidence prediction of the weak view for each class to generate pseudo labels that supervise the strong augmented views. This strategy is capable of taking into account the class imbalance and improving the performance of long-tailed classes. Our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art results on two datasets, PASCAL VOC 2012 and Cityscapes, outperforming other SSS algorithms by a significant margin.

Large language models (LLMs) that produce human-like responses have begun to revolutionize research practices in the social sciences. We develop a novel methodological framework that fine-tunes LLMs with repeated cross-sectional surveys to incorporate the meaning of survey questions, individual beliefs, and temporal contexts for opinion prediction. We introduce two new emerging applications of the AI-augmented survey: retrodiction (i.e., predict year-level missing responses) and unasked opinion prediction (i.e., predict entirely missing responses). Among 3,110 binarized opinions from 68,846 Americans in the General Social Survey from 1972 to 2021, our models based on Alpaca-7b excel in retrodiction (AUC = 0.86 for personal opinion prediction, rho = 0.98 for public opinion prediction). These remarkable prediction capabilities allow us to fill in missing trends with high confidence and pinpoint when public attitudes changed, such as the rising support for same-sex marriage. On the other hand, our fine-tuned Alpaca-7b models show modest success in unasked opinion prediction (AUC = 0.73, rho = 0.67). We discuss practical constraints and ethical concerns regarding individual autonomy and privacy when using LLMs for opinion prediction. Our study demonstrates that LLMs and surveys can mutually enhance each other's capabilities: LLMs can broaden survey potential, while surveys can improve the alignment of LLMs.

This paper aims to develop a novel cost-effective framework for face identification, which progressively maintains a batch of classifiers with the increasing face images of different individuals. By naturally combining two recently rising techniques: active learning (AL) and self-paced learning (SPL), our framework is capable of automatically annotating new instances and incorporating them into training under weak expert re-certification. We first initialize the classifier using a few annotated samples for each individual, and extract image features using the convolutional neural nets. Then, a number of candidates are selected from the unannotated samples for classifier updating, in which we apply the current classifiers ranking the samples by the prediction confidence. In particular, our approach utilizes the high-confidence and low-confidence samples in the self-paced and the active user-query way, respectively. The neural nets are later fine-tuned based on the updated classifiers. Such heuristic implementation is formulated as solving a concise active SPL optimization problem, which also advances the SPL development by supplementing a rational dynamic curriculum constraint. The new model finely accords with the "instructor-student-collaborative" learning mode in human education. The advantages of this proposed framework are two-folds: i) The required number of annotated samples is significantly decreased while the comparable performance is guaranteed. A dramatic reduction of user effort is also achieved over other state-of-the-art active learning techniques. ii) The mixture of SPL and AL effectively improves not only the classifier accuracy compared to existing AL/SPL methods but also the robustness against noisy data. We evaluate our framework on two challenging datasets, and demonstrate very promising results. (http://hcp.sysu.edu.cn/projects/aspl/)

As deep neural networks become adopted in high-stakes domains, it is crucial to be able to identify when inference inputs are Out-of-Distribution (OOD) so that users can be alerted of likely drops in performance and calibration despite high confidence. Among many others, existing methods use the following two scores to do so without training on any apriori OOD examples: a learned temperature and an energy score. In this paper we introduce Ablated Learned Temperature Energy (or "AbeT" for short), a method which combines these prior methods in novel ways with effective modifications. Due to these contributions, AbeT lowers the False Positive Rate at 95% True Positive Rate (FPR@95) by 35.39% in classification (averaged across all ID and OOD datasets measured) compared to state of the art without training networks in multiple stages or requiring hyperparameters or test-time backward passes. We additionally provide empirical insights as to how our model learns to distinguish between In-Distribution (ID) and OOD samples while only being explicitly trained on ID samples via exposure to misclassified ID examples at training time. Lastly, we show the efficacy of our method in identifying predicted bounding boxes and pixels corresponding to OOD objects in object detection and semantic segmentation, respectively - with an AUROC increase of 5.15% in object detection and both a decrease in FPR@95 of 41.48% and an increase in AUPRC of 34.20% on average in semantic segmentation compared to previous state of the art.

Multi-hop question answering requires models to gather information from different parts of a text to answer a question. Most current approaches learn to address this task in an end-to-end way with neural networks, without maintaining an explicit representation of the reasoning process. We propose a method to extract a discrete reasoning chain over the text, which consists of a series of sentences leading to the answer. We then feed the extracted chains to a BERT-based QA model to do final answer prediction. Critically, we do not rely on gold annotated chains or "supporting facts:" at training time, we derive pseudogold reasoning chains using heuristics based on named entity recognition and coreference resolution. Nor do we rely on these annotations at test time, as our model learns to extract chains from raw text alone. We test our approach on two recently proposed large multi-hop question answering datasets: WikiHop and HotpotQA, and achieve state-of-art performance on WikiHop and strong performance on HotpotQA. Our analysis shows the properties of chains that are crucial for high performance: in particular, modeling extraction sequentially is important, as is dealing with each candidate sentence in a context-aware way. Furthermore, human evaluation shows that our extracted chains allow humans to give answers with high confidence, indicating that these are a strong intermediate abstraction for this task.

Stellar flares offer invaluable insights into stellar magnetic activity and exoplanetary environments. Automated flare detection enables exploiting vast photometric datasets from missions like Kepler. This paper presents FCN4Flare, a deep learning approach using fully convolutional networks (FCN) for precise point-to-point flare prediction regardless of light curve length. Key innovations include the NaN Mask to handle missing data automatedly, and the Mask Dice loss to mitigate severe class imbalance. Experimental results show that FCN4Flare significantly outperforms previous methods, achieving a Dice coefficient of 0.64 compared to the state-of-the-art of 0.12. Applying FCN4Flare to Kepler-LAMOST data, we compile a catalog of 30,285 high-confidence flares across 1426 stars. Flare energies are estimated and stellar/exoplanet properties analyzed, identifying pronounced activity for an M-dwarf hosting a habitable zone planet. This work overcomes limitations of prior flare detection methods via deep learning, enabling new scientific discoveries through analysis of photometric time-series data. Code is available at https://github.com/NAOC-LAMOST/fcn4flare .

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive abilities in various tasks. However, fundamentally improving them depends on high-quality datasets or computationally expensive fine-tuning. On the contrary, humans can easily improve themselves by self-thinking and memory, without external resources. In this paper, we propose a framework, MoT, to let the LLM self-improve through Memory-of-Thought, without annotated datasets and parameter updates. Specifically, MoT is divided into two stages: 1. before the test stage, the LLM pre-thinks on the unlabeled dataset and saves the high-confidence thoughts as external memory; 2. During the test stage, given a test question, the LLM recalls relevant memory to help itself reason and answer it. Experimental results show that MoT can help ChatGPT significantly improve its abilities in arithmetic reasoning, commonsense reasoning, factual reasoning, and natural language inference. Further analyses show that each component contributes critically to the improvements and MoT can lead to consistent improvements across various CoT methods and LLMs.

The success of Deep Neural Network (DNN) models significantly depends on the quality of provided annotations. In medical image segmentation, for example, having multiple expert annotations for each data point is common to minimize subjective annotation bias. Then, the goal of estimation is to filter out the label noise and recover the ground-truth masks, which are not explicitly given. This paper proposes a probabilistic model for noisy observations that allows us to build a confident classification and segmentation models. To accomplish it, we explicitly model label noise and introduce a new information-based regularization that pushes the network to recover the ground-truth labels. In addition, for segmentation task we adjust the loss function by prioritizing learning in high-confidence regions where all the annotators agree on labeling. We evaluate the proposed method on a series of classification tasks such as noisy versions of MNIST, CIFAR-10, Fashion-MNIST datasets as well as CIFAR-10N, which is real-world dataset with noisy human annotations. Additionally, for segmentation task, we consider several medical imaging datasets, such as, LIDC and RIGA that reflect real-world inter-variability among multiple annotators. Our experiments show that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art solutions for the considered classification and segmentation problems.

Language model calibration refers to the alignment between the confidence of the model and the actual performance of its responses. While previous studies point out the overconfidence phenomenon in Large Language Models (LLMs) and show that LLMs trained with Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) are overconfident with a more sharpened output probability, in this study, we reveal that RLHF tends to lead models to express verbalized overconfidence in their own responses. We investigate the underlying cause of this overconfidence and demonstrate that reward models used for Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) exhibit inherent biases towards high-confidence scores regardless of the actual quality of responses. Building upon this insight, we propose two PPO variants: PPO-M: PPO with Calibrated Reward Modeling and PPO-C: PPO with Calibrated Reward Calculation. PPO-M integrates explicit confidence scores in reward model training, which calibrates reward models to better capture the alignment between response quality and verbalized confidence. PPO-C adjusts the reward score during PPO based on the difference between the current reward and the moving average of past rewards. Both PPO-M and PPO-C can be seamlessly integrated into the current PPO pipeline and do not require additional golden labels. We evaluate our methods on both Llama3-8B and Mistral-7B across six diverse datasets including multiple-choice and open-ended generation. Experiment results demonstrate that both of our methods can reduce calibration error and maintain performance comparable to standard PPO. We further show that they do not compromise model capabilities in open-ended conversation settings.

This paper presents a simple but performant semi-supervised semantic segmentation approach, called CorrMatch. Previous approaches mostly employ complicated training strategies to leverage unlabeled data but overlook the role of correlation maps in modeling the relationships between pairs of locations. We observe that the correlation maps not only enable clustering pixels of the same category easily but also contain good shape information, which previous works have omitted. Motivated by these, we aim to improve the use efficiency of unlabeled data by designing two novel label propagation strategies. First, we propose to conduct pixel propagation by modeling the pairwise similarities of pixels to spread the high-confidence pixels and dig out more. Then, we perform region propagation to enhance the pseudo labels with accurate class-agnostic masks extracted from the correlation maps. CorrMatch achieves great performance on popular segmentation benchmarks. Taking the DeepLabV3+ with ResNet-101 backbone as our segmentation model, we receive a 76%+ mIoU score on the Pascal VOC 2012 dataset with only 92 annotated images. Code is available at https://github.com/BBBBchan/CorrMatch.

Making the contents generated by Large Language Model (LLM) such as ChatGPT, accurate, credible and traceable is crucial, especially in complex knowledge-intensive tasks that require multi-step reasoning and each of which needs knowledge to solve. Introducing Information Retrieval (IR) to provide LLM with external knowledge is good potential to solve this problem. However, where and how to introduce IR into LLM is a big challenge. Previous work has the disadvantage that the wrong knowledge retrieved by IR misleads the LLM or breaks the reasoning chain of LLM. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called Search-in-the-Chain (SearChain) for the interaction between LLM and IR to solve the challenges. First, LLM generates the global reasoning chain called Chain-of-Query (CoQ) where each node consists of an IR-oriented query and the answer to the query. Second, IR verifies the answer of each node of CoQ, it corrects the answer that is not consistent with the retrieved information when IR gives high confidence, which improves the credibility. Third, LLM can mark its missing knowledge in CoQ and IR can provide this knowledge to LLM. These three operations improve the accuracy of LLM for complex knowledge-intensive tasks in terms of reasoning ability and knowledge. Finally, SearChain generates the reasoning process and marks references to supporting documents for each reasoning step, which improves traceability. SearChain transforms the topology of reasoning from chain to tree, which can modify the reasoning direction. Experiment shows that SearChain outperforms baselines on complex knowledge-intensive tasks including multi-hop question-answering, slot filling, fact checking, and long-form question-answering.

Weight oscillation is an undesirable side effect of quantization-aware training, in which quantized weights frequently jump between two quantized levels, resulting in training instability and a sub-optimal final model. We discover that the learnable scaling factor, a widely-used de facto setting in quantization aggravates weight oscillation. In this study, we investigate the connection between the learnable scaling factor and quantized weight oscillation and use ViT as a case driver to illustrate the findings and remedies. In addition, we also found that the interdependence between quantized weights in query and key of a self-attention layer makes ViT vulnerable to oscillation. We, therefore, propose three techniques accordingly: statistical weight quantization (rm StatsQ) to improve quantization robustness compared to the prevalent learnable-scale-based method; confidence-guided annealing (rm CGA) that freezes the weights with high confidence and calms the oscillating weights; and query-key reparameterization (rm QKR) to resolve the query-key intertwined oscillation and mitigate the resulting gradient misestimation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that these proposed techniques successfully abate weight oscillation and consistently achieve substantial accuracy improvement on ImageNet. Specifically, our 2-bit DeiT-T/DeiT-S algorithms outperform the previous state-of-the-art by 9.8% and 7.7%, respectively. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/nbasyl/OFQ.

Quantum computing promises to enhance machine learning and artificial intelligence. Different quantum algorithms have been proposed to improve a wide spectrum of machine learning tasks. Yet, recent theoretical works show that, similar to traditional classifiers based on deep classical neural networks, quantum classifiers would suffer from the vulnerability problem: adding tiny carefully-crafted perturbations to the legitimate original data samples would facilitate incorrect predictions at a notably high confidence level. This will pose serious problems for future quantum machine learning applications in safety and security-critical scenarios. Here, we report the first experimental demonstration of quantum adversarial learning with programmable superconducting qubits. We train quantum classifiers, which are built upon variational quantum circuits consisting of ten transmon qubits featuring average lifetimes of 150 mus, and average fidelities of simultaneous single- and two-qubit gates above 99.94% and 99.4% respectively, with both real-life images (e.g., medical magnetic resonance imaging scans) and quantum data. We demonstrate that these well-trained classifiers (with testing accuracy up to 99%) can be practically deceived by small adversarial perturbations, whereas an adversarial training process would significantly enhance their robustness to such perturbations. Our results reveal experimentally a crucial vulnerability aspect of quantum learning systems under adversarial scenarios and demonstrate an effective defense strategy against adversarial attacks, which provide a valuable guide for quantum artificial intelligence applications with both near-term and future quantum devices.

Reward models (RM) capture the values and preferences of humans and play a central role in Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF) to align pretrained large language models (LLMs). Traditionally, training these models relies on extensive human-annotated preference data, which poses significant challenges in terms of scalability and cost. To overcome these limitations, we propose Semi-Supervised Reward Modeling (SSRM), an approach that enhances RM training using unlabeled data. Given an unlabeled dataset, SSRM involves three key iterative steps: pseudo-labeling unlabeled examples, selecting high-confidence examples through a confidence threshold, and supervised finetuning on the refined dataset. Across extensive experiments on various model configurations, we demonstrate that SSRM significantly improves reward models without incurring additional labeling costs. Notably, SSRM can achieve performance comparable to models trained entirely on labeled data of equivalent volumes. Overall, SSRM substantially reduces the dependency on large volumes of human-annotated data, thereby decreasing the overall cost and time involved in training effective reward models.

A dog whistle is a form of coded communication that carries a secondary meaning to specific audiences and is often weaponized for racial and socioeconomic discrimination. Dog whistling historically originated from United States politics, but in recent years has taken root in social media as a means of evading hate speech detection systems and maintaining plausible deniability. In this paper, we present an approach for word-sense disambiguation of dog whistles from standard speech using Large Language Models (LLMs), and leverage this technique to create a dataset of 16,550 high-confidence coded examples of dog whistles used in formal and informal communication. Silent Signals is the largest dataset of disambiguated dog whistle usage, created for applications in hate speech detection, neology, and political science. The dataset can be found at https://huggingface.co/datasets/SALT-NLP/silent_signals.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

Neural language models (LMs) can be used to evaluate the truth of factual statements in two ways: they can be either queried for statement probabilities, or probed for internal representations of truthfulness. Past work has found that these two procedures sometimes disagree, and that probes tend to be more accurate than LM outputs. This has led some researchers to conclude that LMs "lie" or otherwise encode non-cooperative communicative intents. Is this an accurate description of today's LMs, or can query-probe disagreement arise in other ways? We identify three different classes of disagreement, which we term confabulation, deception, and heterogeneity. In many cases, the superiority of probes is simply attributable to better calibration on uncertain answers rather than a greater fraction of correct, high-confidence answers. In some cases, queries and probes perform better on different subsets of inputs, and accuracy can further be improved by ensembling the two. Code is available at github.com/lingo-mit/lm-truthfulness.

In semi-supervised learning, unlabeled samples can be utilized through augmentation and consistency regularization. However, we observed certain samples, even undergoing strong augmentation, are still correctly classified with high confidence, resulting in a loss close to zero. It indicates that these samples have been already learned well and do not provide any additional optimization benefits to the model. We refer to these samples as ``naive samples". Unfortunately, existing SSL models overlook the characteristics of naive samples, and they just apply the same learning strategy to all samples. To further optimize the SSL model, we emphasize the importance of giving attention to naive samples and augmenting them in a more diverse manner. Sample adaptive augmentation (SAA) is proposed for this stated purpose and consists of two modules: 1) sample selection module; 2) sample augmentation module. Specifically, the sample selection module picks out {naive samples} based on historical training information at each epoch, then the naive samples will be augmented in a more diverse manner in the sample augmentation module. Thanks to the extreme ease of implementation of the above modules, SAA is advantageous for being simple and lightweight. We add SAA on top of FixMatch and FlexMatch respectively, and experiments demonstrate SAA can significantly improve the models. For example, SAA helped improve the accuracy of FixMatch from 92.50% to 94.76% and that of FlexMatch from 95.01% to 95.31% on CIFAR-10 with 40 labels.

We tackle the data scarcity challenge in few-shot point cloud recognition of 3D objects by using a joint prediction from a conventional 3D model and a well-trained 2D model. Surprisingly, such an ensemble, though seems trivial, has hardly been shown effective in recent 2D-3D models. We find out the crux is the less effective training for the ''joint hard samples'', which have high confidence prediction on different wrong labels, implying that the 2D and 3D models do not collaborate well. To this end, our proposed invariant training strategy, called InvJoint, does not only emphasize the training more on the hard samples, but also seeks the invariance between the conflicting 2D and 3D ambiguous predictions. InvJoint can learn more collaborative 2D and 3D representations for better ensemble. Extensive experiments on 3D shape classification with widely adopted ModelNet10/40, ScanObjectNN and Toys4K, and shape retrieval with ShapeNet-Core validate the superiority of our InvJoint.

Fair representation learning (FRL) is a popular class of methods aiming to produce fair classifiers via data preprocessing. Recent regulatory directives stress the need for FRL methods that provide practical certificates, i.e., provable upper bounds on the unfairness of any downstream classifier trained on preprocessed data, which directly provides assurance in a practical scenario. Creating such FRL methods is an important challenge that remains unsolved. In this work, we address that challenge and introduce FARE (Fairness with Restricted Encoders), the first FRL method with practical fairness certificates. FARE is based on our key insight that restricting the representation space of the encoder enables the derivation of practical guarantees, while still permitting favorable accuracy-fairness tradeoffs for suitable instantiations, such as one we propose based on fair trees. To produce a practical certificate, we develop and apply a statistical procedure that computes a finite sample high-confidence upper bound on the unfairness of any downstream classifier trained on FARE embeddings. In our comprehensive experimental evaluation, we demonstrate that FARE produces practical certificates that are tight and often even comparable with purely empirical results obtained by prior methods, which establishes the practical value of our approach.

In this paper, we propose a framework named OCSampler to explore a compact yet effective video representation with one short clip for efficient video recognition. Recent works prefer to formulate frame sampling as a sequential decision task by selecting frames one by one according to their importance, while we present a new paradigm of learning instance-specific video condensation policies to select informative frames for representing the entire video only in a single step. Our basic motivation is that the efficient video recognition task lies in processing a whole sequence at once rather than picking up frames sequentially. Accordingly, these policies are derived from a light-weighted skim network together with a simple yet effective policy network within one step. Moreover, we extend the proposed method with a frame number budget, enabling the framework to produce correct predictions in high confidence with as few frames as possible. Experiments on four benchmarks, i.e., ActivityNet, Mini-Kinetics, FCVID, Mini-Sports1M, demonstrate the effectiveness of our OCSampler over previous methods in terms of accuracy, theoretical computational expense, actual inference speed. We also evaluate its generalization power across different classifiers, sampled frames, and search spaces. Especially, we achieve 76.9% mAP and 21.7 GFLOPs on ActivityNet with an impressive throughput: 123.9 Videos/s on a single TITAN Xp GPU.

Floods wreak havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damages, and uprooting communities, ecosystems and economies. The NASA Impact Flood Detection competition tasked participants with predicting flooded pixels after training with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images in a supervised setting. We propose a semi-supervised learning pseudo-labeling scheme that derives confidence estimates from U-Net ensembles, progressively improving accuracy. Concretely, we use a cyclical approach involving multiple stages (1) training an ensemble model of multiple U-Net architectures with the provided high confidence hand-labeled data and, generated pseudo labels or low confidence labels on the entire unlabeled test dataset, and then, (2) filter out quality generated labels and, (3) combine the generated labels with the previously available high confidence hand-labeled dataset. This assimilated dataset is used for the next round of training ensemble models and the cyclical process is repeated until the performance improvement plateaus. We post process our results with Conditional Random Fields. Our approach sets a new state-of-the-art on the Sentinel-1 dataset with 0.7654 IoU, an impressive improvement over the 0.60 IoU baseline. Our method, which we release with all the code and models, can also be used as an open science benchmark for the Sentinel-1 dataset.

To reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis a set of 5 technical indicators and 23 fundamental indicators was identified to establish the possibility of generating excess returns on the stock market. Leveraging these data points and various classification machine learning models, trading data of the 505 equities on the US S&P500 over the past 20 years was analysed to develop a classifier effective for our cause. From any given day, we were able to predict the direction of change in price by 1% up to 10 days in the future. The predictions had an overall accuracy of 83.62% with a precision of 85% for buy signals and a recall of 100% for sell signals. Moreover, we grouped equities by their sector and repeated the experiment to see if grouping similar assets together positively effected the results but concluded that it showed no significant improvements in the performance rejecting the idea of sector-based analysis. Also, using feature ranking we could identify an even smaller set of 6 indicators while maintaining similar accuracies as that from the original 28 features and also uncovered the importance of buy, hold and sell analyst ratings as they came out to be the top contributors in the model. Finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of the classifier in real-life situations, it was backtested on FAANG equities using a modest trading strategy where it generated high returns of above 60% over the term of the testing dataset. In conclusion, our proposed methodology with the combination of purposefully picked features shows an improvement over the previous studies, and our model predicts the direction of 1% price changes on the 10th day with high confidence and with enough buffer to even build a robotic trading system.

Despite significant advancements in large language models (LLMs) that enhance robot agents' understanding and execution of natural language (NL) commands, ensuring the agents adhere to user-specified constraints remains challenging, particularly for complex commands and long-horizon tasks. To address this challenge, we present three key insights, equivalence voting, constrained decoding, and domain-specific fine-tuning, which significantly enhance LLM planners' capability in handling complex tasks. Equivalence voting ensures consistency by generating and sampling multiple Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) formulas from NL commands, grouping equivalent LTL formulas, and selecting the majority group of formulas as the final LTL formula. Constrained decoding then uses the generated LTL formula to enforce the autoregressive inference of plans, ensuring the generated plans conform to the LTL. Domain-specific fine-tuning customizes LLMs to produce safe and efficient plans within specific task domains. Our approach, Safe Efficient LLM Planner (SELP), combines these insights to create LLM planners to generate plans adhering to user commands with high confidence. We demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of SELP across different robot agents and tasks, including drone navigation and robot manipulation. For drone navigation tasks, SELP outperforms state-of-the-art planners by 10.8% in safety rate (i.e., finishing tasks conforming to NL commands) and by 19.8% in plan efficiency. For robot manipulation tasks, SELP achieves 20.4% improvement in safety rate. Our datasets for evaluating NL-to-LTL and robot task planning will be released in github.com/lt-asset/selp.

While large language models have demonstrated exceptional performance across a wide range of tasks, they remain susceptible to hallucinations -- generating plausible yet factually incorrect contents. Existing methods to mitigating such risk often rely on sampling multiple full-length generations, which introduces significant response latency and becomes ineffective when the model consistently produces hallucinated outputs with high confidence. To address these limitations, we introduce Monitoring Decoding (MD), a novel framework that dynamically monitors the generation process and selectively applies in-process interventions, focusing on revising crucial tokens responsible for hallucinations. Instead of waiting until completion of multiple full-length generations, we identify hallucination-prone tokens during generation using a monitor function, and further refine these tokens through a tree-based decoding strategy. This approach ensures an enhanced factual accuracy and coherence in the generated output while maintaining efficiency. Experimental results demonstrate that MD consistently outperforms self-consistency-based approaches in both effectiveness and efficiency, achieving higher factual accuracy while significantly reducing computational overhead.

Because of predicting all the target tokens in parallel, the non-autoregressive models greatly improve the decoding efficiency of speech recognition compared with traditional autoregressive models. In this work, we present dynamic alignment Mask CTC, introducing two methods: (1) Aligned Cross Entropy (AXE), finding the monotonic alignment that minimizes the cross-entropy loss through dynamic programming, (2) Dynamic Rectification, creating new training samples by replacing some masks with model predicted tokens. The AXE ignores the absolute position alignment between prediction and ground truth sentence and focuses on tokens matching in relative order. The dynamic rectification method makes the model capable of simulating the non-mask but possible wrong tokens, even if they have high confidence. Our experiments on WSJ dataset demonstrated that not only AXE loss but also the rectification method could improve the WER performance of Mask CTC.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

Deep learning models are intrinsically sensitive to distribution shifts in the input data. In particular, small, barely perceivable perturbations to the input data can force models to make wrong predictions with high confidence. An common defense mechanism is regularization through adversarial training which injects worst-case perturbations back into training to strengthen the decision boundaries, and to reduce overfitting. In this context, we perform an investigation of 3x3 convolution filters that form in adversarially-trained models. Filters are extracted from 71 public models of the linf-RobustBench CIFAR-10/100 and ImageNet1k leaderboard and compared to filters extracted from models built on the same architectures but trained without robust regularization. We observe that adversarially-robust models appear to form more diverse, less sparse, and more orthogonal convolution filters than their normal counterparts. The largest differences between robust and normal models are found in the deepest layers, and the very first convolution layer, which consistently and predominantly forms filters that can partially eliminate perturbations, irrespective of the architecture. Data & Project website: https://github.com/paulgavrikov/cvpr22w_RobustnessThroughTheLens

Although state-of-the-art object detection methods have shown compelling performance, models often are not robust to adversarial attacks and out-of-distribution data. We introduce a new dataset, Natural Adversarial Objects (NAO), to evaluate the robustness of object detection models. NAO contains 7,934 images and 9,943 objects that are unmodified and representative of real-world scenarios, but cause state-of-the-art detection models to misclassify with high confidence. The mean average precision (mAP) of EfficientDet-D7 drops 74.5% when evaluated on NAO compared to the standard MSCOCO validation set. Moreover, by comparing a variety of object detection architectures, we find that better performance on MSCOCO validation set does not necessarily translate to better performance on NAO, suggesting that robustness cannot be simply achieved by training a more accurate model. We further investigate why examples in NAO are difficult to detect and classify. Experiments of shuffling image patches reveal that models are overly sensitive to local texture. Additionally, using integrated gradients and background replacement, we find that the detection model is reliant on pixel information within the bounding box, and insensitive to the background context when predicting class labels. NAO can be downloaded at https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/15P8sOWoJku6SSEiHLEts86ORfytGezi8.

Several machine learning models, including neural networks, consistently misclassify adversarial examples---inputs formed by applying small but intentionally worst-case perturbations to examples from the dataset, such that the perturbed input results in the model outputting an incorrect answer with high confidence. Early attempts at explaining this phenomenon focused on nonlinearity and overfitting. We argue instead that the primary cause of neural networks' vulnerability to adversarial perturbation is their linear nature. This explanation is supported by new quantitative results while giving the first explanation of the most intriguing fact about them: their generalization across architectures and training sets. Moreover, this view yields a simple and fast method of generating adversarial examples. Using this approach to provide examples for adversarial training, we reduce the test set error of a maxout network on the MNIST dataset.

This paper studies the problem of solving complex chemistry problems with large language models (LLMs). Despite the extensive general knowledge in LLMs (such as GPT-4), they struggle with chemistry reasoning that requires faithful grounded reasoning with diverse chemical knowledge and an integrative understanding of chemical interactions. We propose InstructChem, a new structured reasoning approach that substantially boosts the LLMs' chemical reasoning capabilities. InstructChem explicitly decomposes the reasoning into three critical phrases, including chemical formulae generation by LLMs that offers the basis for subsequent grounded reasoning, step-by-step reasoning that makes multi-step derivations with the identified formulae for a preliminary answer, and iterative review-and-refinement that steers LLMs to progressively revise the previous phases for increasing confidence, leading to the final high-confidence answer. We conduct extensive experiments on four different chemistry challenges, including quantum chemistry, quantum mechanics, physical chemistry, and chemistry kinetics. Our approach significantly enhances GPT-4 on chemistry reasoning, yielding an 8% average absolute improvement and a 30% peak improvement. We further use the generated reasoning by GPT-4 to fine-tune smaller LMs (e.g., Vicuna) and observe strong improvement of the smaller LMs. This validates our approach and enables LLMs to generate high-quality reasoning.

Despite the success of integrating large language models into the development of conversational systems, many studies have shown the effectiveness of retrieving and augmenting external knowledge for informative responses. Hence, many existing studies commonly assume the always need for Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) in a conversational system without explicit control. This raises a research question about such a necessity. In this study, we propose to investigate the need for each turn of system response to be augmented with external knowledge. In particular, by leveraging human judgements on the binary choice of adaptive augmentation, we develop RAGate, a gating model, which models conversation context and relevant inputs to predict if a conversational system requires RAG for improved responses. We conduct extensive experiments on devising and applying RAGate to conversational models and well-rounded analyses of different conversational scenarios. Our experimental results and analysis indicate the effective application of RAGate in RAG-based conversational systems in identifying system responses for appropriate RAG with high-quality responses and a high generation confidence. This study also identifies the correlation between the generation's confidence level and the relevance of the augmented knowledge.

Fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) often exhibit overconfidence, particularly when trained on small datasets, resulting in poor calibration and inaccurate uncertainty estimates. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), an uncertainty-aware approach, enables uncertainty estimation in a single forward pass, making it a promising method for calibrating fine-tuned LLMs. However, despite its computational efficiency, EDL is prone to overfitting, as its training objective can result in overly concentrated probability distributions. To mitigate this, we propose regularizing EDL by incorporating an information bottleneck (IB). Our approach IB-EDL suppresses spurious information in the evidence generated by the model and encourages truly predictive information to influence both the predictions and uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments across various fine-tuned LLMs and tasks demonstrate that IB-EDL outperforms both existing EDL and non-EDL approaches. By improving the trustworthiness of LLMs, IB-EDL facilitates their broader adoption in domains requiring high levels of confidence calibration. Code is available at https://github.com/sandylaker/ib-edl.

The generalization capability of deep neural networks has been substantially improved by applying a wide spectrum of regularization methods, e.g., restricting function space, injecting randomness during training, augmenting data, etc. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective regularization method named progressive self-knowledge distillation (PS-KD), which progressively distills a model's own knowledge to soften hard targets (i.e., one-hot vectors) during training. Hence, it can be interpreted within a framework of knowledge distillation as a student becomes a teacher itself. Specifically, targets are adjusted adaptively by combining the ground-truth and past predictions from the model itself. We show that PS-KD provides an effect of hard example mining by rescaling gradients according to difficulty in classifying examples. The proposed method is applicable to any supervised learning tasks with hard targets and can be easily combined with existing regularization methods to further enhance the generalization performance. Furthermore, it is confirmed that PS-KD achieves not only better accuracy, but also provides high quality of confidence estimates in terms of calibration as well as ordinal ranking. Extensive experimental results on three different tasks, image classification, object detection, and machine translation, demonstrate that our method consistently improves the performance of the state-of-the-art baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/lgcnsai/PS-KD-Pytorch.

In recent years, generative artificial intelligence has achieved significant advancements in the field of image generation, spawning a variety of applications. However, video generation still faces considerable challenges in various aspects, such as controllability, video length, and richness of details, which hinder the application and popularization of this technology. In this work, we propose a controllable video generation framework, dubbed MimicMotion, which can generate high-quality videos of arbitrary length mimicking specific motion guidance. Compared with previous methods, our approach has several highlights. Firstly, we introduce confidence-aware pose guidance that ensures high frame quality and temporal smoothness. Secondly, we introduce regional loss amplification based on pose confidence, which significantly reduces image distortion. Lastly, for generating long and smooth videos, we propose a progressive latent fusion strategy. By this means, we can produce videos of arbitrary length with acceptable resource consumption. With extensive experiments and user studies, MimicMotion demonstrates significant improvements over previous approaches in various aspects. Detailed results and comparisons are available on our project page: https://tencent.github.io/MimicMotion .

Despite their widespread use, the mechanisms by which large language models (LLMs) represent and regulate uncertainty in next-token predictions remain largely unexplored. This study investigates two critical components believed to influence this uncertainty: the recently discovered entropy neurons and a new set of components that we term token frequency neurons. Entropy neurons are characterized by an unusually high weight norm and influence the final layer normalization (LayerNorm) scale to effectively scale down the logits. Our work shows that entropy neurons operate by writing onto an unembedding null space, allowing them to impact the residual stream norm with minimal direct effect on the logits themselves. We observe the presence of entropy neurons across a range of models, up to 7 billion parameters. On the other hand, token frequency neurons, which we discover and describe here for the first time, boost or suppress each token's logit proportionally to its log frequency, thereby shifting the output distribution towards or away from the unigram distribution. Finally, we present a detailed case study where entropy neurons actively manage confidence in the setting of induction, i.e. detecting and continuing repeated subsequences.

The rapid evolution of language models has necessitated the development of more challenging benchmarks. Current static benchmarks often struggle to consistently distinguish between the capabilities of different models and fail to align with real-world user preferences. On the other hand, live crowd-sourced platforms like the Chatbot Arena collect a wide range of natural prompts and user feedback. However, these prompts vary in sophistication and the feedback cannot be applied offline to new models. In order to ensure that benchmarks keep up with the pace of LLM development, we address how one can evaluate benchmarks on their ability to confidently separate models and their alignment with human preference. Under these principles, we developed BenchBuilder, a living benchmark that filters high-quality prompts from live data sources to enable offline evaluation on fresh, challenging prompts. BenchBuilder identifies seven indicators of a high-quality prompt, such as the requirement for domain knowledge, and utilizes an LLM annotator to select a high-quality subset of prompts from various topic clusters. The LLM evaluation process employs an LLM judge to ensure a fully automated, high-quality, and constantly updating benchmark. We apply BenchBuilder on prompts from the Chatbot Arena to create Arena-Hard-Auto v0.1: 500 challenging user prompts from a wide range of tasks. Arena-Hard-Auto v0.1 offers 3x tighter confidence intervals than MT-Bench and achieves a state-of-the-art 89.1% agreement with human preference rankings, all at a cost of only $25 and without human labelers. The BenchBuilder pipeline enhances evaluation benchmarks and provides a valuable tool for developers, enabling them to extract high-quality benchmarks from extensive data with minimal effort.

Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework that provides statistically-guaranteed uncertainty estimates while enabling selective prediction in high-risk scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines a conformal threshold ensuring valid prediction sets with an abstention threshold optimized through ROC analysis, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees (\ge 1 - \alpha) while identifying unreliable predictions. Through comprehensive evaluation on CIFAR-100, ImageNet1K, and ModelNet40 datasets, we demonstrate superior robustness across camera and LiDAR modalities under varying environmental perturbations. The framework achieves exceptional detection performance (AUC: 0.993\to0.995) under severe conditions while maintaining high coverage (>90.0\%) and enabling adaptive abstention (13.5\%\to63.4\%\pm0.5) as environmental severity increases. For LiDAR-based perception, our approach demonstrates particularly strong performance, maintaining robust coverage (>84.5\%) while appropriately abstaining from unreliable predictions. Notably, the framework shows remarkable stability under heavy perturbations, with detection performance (AUC: 0.995\pm0.001) significantly outperforming existing methods across all modalities. Our unified approach bridges the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical deployment needs, offering a robust solution for safety-critical autonomous systems operating in challenging real-world conditions.

Source-free unsupervised domain adaptation (SFUDA) aims to obtain high performance in the unlabeled target domain using the pre-trained source model, not the source data. Existing SFUDA methods assign the same importance to all target samples, which is vulnerable to incorrect pseudo-labels. To differentiate between sample importance, in this study, we propose a novel sample-wise confidence score, the Joint Model-Data Structure (JMDS) score for SFUDA. Unlike existing confidence scores that use only one of the source or target domain knowledge, the JMDS score uses both knowledge. We then propose a Confidence score Weighting Adaptation using the JMDS (CoWA-JMDS) framework for SFUDA. CoWA-JMDS consists of the JMDS scores as sample weights and weight Mixup that is our proposed variant of Mixup. Weight Mixup promotes the model make more use of the target domain knowledge. The experimental results show that the JMDS score outperforms the existing confidence scores. Moreover, CoWA-JMDS achieves state-of-the-art performance on various SFUDA scenarios: closed, open, and partial-set scenarios.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on several tasks and are increasingly deployed in real-world applications. However, especially in high-stakes settings, it becomes vital to know when the output of an LLM may be unreliable. Depending on whether an answer is trustworthy, a system can then choose to route the question to another expert, or otherwise fall back on a safe default behavior. In this work, we study the extent to which LLMs can reliably indicate confidence in their answers, and how this notion of confidence can translate into downstream accuracy gains. We propose Self-REF, a lightweight training strategy to teach LLMs to express confidence in whether their answers are correct in a reliable manner. Self-REF introduces confidence tokens into the LLM, from which a confidence score can be extracted. Compared to conventional approaches such as verbalizing confidence and examining token probabilities, we demonstrate empirically that confidence tokens show significant improvements in downstream routing and rejection learning tasks.

Adaptive gradient methods, such as Adam and LAMB, have demonstrated excellent performance in the training of large language models. Nevertheless, the need for adaptivity requires maintaining second-moment estimates of the per-parameter gradients, which entails a high cost of extra memory overheads. To solve this problem, several memory-efficient optimizers (e.g., Adafactor) have been proposed to obtain a drastic reduction in auxiliary memory usage, but with a performance penalty. In this paper, we first study a confidence-guided strategy to reduce the instability of existing memory efficient optimizers. Based on this strategy, we propose CAME to simultaneously achieve two goals: fast convergence as in traditional adaptive methods, and low memory usage as in memory-efficient methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate the training stability and superior performance of CAME across various NLP tasks such as BERT and GPT-2 training. Notably, for BERT pre-training on the large batch size of 32,768, our proposed optimizer attains faster convergence and higher accuracy compared with the Adam optimizer. The implementation of CAME is publicly available.

Learning decompositions of expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions promises to scale Bayesian optimisation (BO) to high-dimensional problems. However, the success of these techniques depends on finding proper decompositions that accurately represent the black-box. While previous works learn those decompositions based on data, we investigate data-independent decomposition sampling rules in this paper. We find that data-driven learners of decompositions can be easily misled towards local decompositions that do not hold globally across the search space. Then, we formally show that a random tree-based decomposition sampler exhibits favourable theoretical guarantees that effectively trade off maximal information gain and functional mismatch between the actual black-box and its surrogate as provided by the decomposition. Those results motivate the development of the random decomposition upper-confidence bound algorithm (RDUCB) that is straightforward to implement - (almost) plug-and-play - and, surprisingly, yields significant empirical gains compared to the previous state-of-the-art on a comprehensive set of benchmarks. We also confirm the plug-and-play nature of our modelling component by integrating our method with HEBO, showing improved practical gains in the highest dimensional tasks from Bayesmark.

We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a high number of unique labels. We present experimental results using the original and the proposed efficient LP-ICP on two English and one Czech language data-sets. Specifically, we apply the LP-ICP on three deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers of two types: one based on contextualised (bert) and two on non-contextualised (word2vec) word-embeddings. In the LP-ICP setting we assign nonconformity scores to label-sets from which the corresponding p-values and prediction-sets are determined. Our approach deals with the increased computational burden of LP by eliminating from consideration a significant number of label-sets that will surely have p-values below the specified significance level. This reduces dramatically the computational complexity of the approach while fully respecting the standard CP guarantees. Our experimental results show that the contextualised-based classifier surpasses the non-contextualised-based ones and obtains state-of-the-art performance for all data-sets examined. The good performance of the underlying classifiers is carried on to their ICP counterparts without any significant accuracy loss, but with the added benefits of ICP, i.e. the confidence information encapsulated in the prediction sets. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting prediction sets can be tight enough to be practically useful even though the set of all possible label-sets contains more than 1e+16 combinations. Additionally, the empirical error rates of the obtained prediction-sets confirm that our outputs are well-calibrated.

For large language models (LLMs) to be trusted by humans they need to be well-calibrated in the sense that they can accurately assess and communicate how likely it is that their predictions are correct. Recent work has focused on the quality of internal LLM confidence assessments, but the question remains of how well LLMs can communicate this internal model confidence to human users. This paper explores the disparity between external human confidence in an LLM's responses and the internal confidence of the model. Through experiments involving multiple-choice questions, we systematically examine human users' ability to discern the reliability of LLM outputs. Our study focuses on two key areas: (1) assessing users' perception of true LLM confidence and (2) investigating the impact of tailored explanations on this perception. The research highlights that default explanations from LLMs often lead to user overestimation of both the model's confidence and its' accuracy. By modifying the explanations to more accurately reflect the LLM's internal confidence, we observe a significant shift in user perception, aligning it more closely with the model's actual confidence levels. This adjustment in explanatory approach demonstrates potential for enhancing user trust and accuracy in assessing LLM outputs. The findings underscore the importance of transparent communication of confidence levels in LLMs, particularly in high-stakes applications where understanding the reliability of AI-generated information is essential.

Modern detection transformers (DETRs) use a set of object queries to predict a list of bounding boxes, sort them by their classification confidence scores, and select the top-ranked predictions as the final detection results for the given input image. A highly performant object detector requires accurate ranking for the bounding box predictions. For DETR-based detectors, the top-ranked bounding boxes suffer from less accurate localization quality due to the misalignment between classification scores and localization accuracy, thus impeding the construction of high-quality detectors. In this work, we introduce a simple and highly performant DETR-based object detector by proposing a series of rank-oriented designs, combinedly called Rank-DETR. Our key contributions include: (i) a rank-oriented architecture design that can prompt positive predictions and suppress the negative ones to ensure lower false positive rates, as well as (ii) a rank-oriented loss function and matching cost design that prioritizes predictions of more accurate localization accuracy during ranking to boost the AP under high IoU thresholds. We apply our method to improve the recent SOTA methods (e.g., H-DETR and DINO-DETR) and report strong COCO object detection results when using different backbones such as ResNet-50, Swin-T, and Swin-L, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach. Code is available at https://github.com/LeapLabTHU/Rank-DETR.

High-resolution (HR) image perception remains a key challenge in multimodal large language models (MLLMs). To overcome the limitations of existing methods, this paper shifts away from prior dedicated heuristic approaches and revisits the most fundamental idea to HR perception by enhancing the long-context capability of MLLMs, driven by recent advances in long-context techniques like retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) for general LLMs. Towards this end, this paper presents the first study exploring the use of RAG to address HR perception challenges. Specifically, we propose Retrieval-Augmented Perception (RAP), a training-free framework that retrieves and fuses relevant image crops while preserving spatial context using the proposed Spatial-Awareness Layout. To accommodate different tasks, the proposed Retrieved-Exploration Search (RE-Search) dynamically selects the optimal number of crops based on model confidence and retrieval scores. Experimental results on HR benchmarks demonstrate the significant effectiveness of RAP, with LLaVA-v1.5-13B achieving a 43% improvement on V^* Bench and 19% on HR-Bench.

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) complements the knowledge of Large Language Models (LLMs) by leveraging external information to enhance response accuracy for queries. This approach is widely applied in several fields by taking its advantage of injecting the most up-to-date information, and researchers are focusing on understanding and improving this aspect to unlock the full potential of RAG in such high-stakes applications. However, despite the potential of RAG to address these needs, the mechanisms behind the confidence levels of its outputs remain underexplored, although the confidence of information is very critical in some domains, such as finance, healthcare, and medicine. Our study focuses the impact of RAG on confidence within the medical domain under various configurations and models. We evaluate confidence by treating the model's predicted probability as its output and calculating Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) scores based on the probabilities and accuracy. In addition, we analyze whether the order of retrieved documents within prompts calibrates the confidence. Our findings reveal large variation in confidence and accuracy depending on the model, settings, and the format of input prompts. These results underscore the necessity of optimizing configurations based on the specific model and conditions.

In the study of LLMs, sycophancy represents a prevalent hallucination that poses significant challenges to these models. Specifically, LLMs often fail to adhere to original correct responses, instead blindly agreeing with users' opinions, even when those opinions are incorrect or malicious. However, research on sycophancy in visual language models (VLMs) has been scarce. In this work, we extend the exploration of sycophancy from LLMs to VLMs, introducing the MM-SY benchmark to evaluate this phenomenon. We present evaluation results from multiple representative models, addressing the gap in sycophancy research for VLMs. To mitigate sycophancy, we propose a synthetic dataset for training and employ methods based on prompts, supervised fine-tuning, and DPO. Our experiments demonstrate that these methods effectively alleviate sycophancy in VLMs. Additionally, we probe VLMs to assess the semantic impact of sycophancy and analyze the attention distribution of visual tokens. Our findings indicate that the ability to prevent sycophancy is predominantly observed in higher layers of the model. The lack of attention to image knowledge in these higher layers may contribute to sycophancy, and enhancing image attention at high layers proves beneficial in mitigating this issue.

Object localization in general environments is a fundamental part of vision systems. While dominating on the COCO benchmark, recent Transformer-based detection methods are not competitive in diverse domains. Moreover, these methods still struggle to very accurately estimate the object bounding boxes in complex environments. We introduce Cascade-DETR for high-quality universal object detection. We jointly tackle the generalization to diverse domains and localization accuracy by proposing the Cascade Attention layer, which explicitly integrates object-centric information into the detection decoder by limiting the attention to the previous box prediction. To further enhance accuracy, we also revisit the scoring of queries. Instead of relying on classification scores, we predict the expected IoU of the query, leading to substantially more well-calibrated confidences. Lastly, we introduce a universal object detection benchmark, UDB10, that contains 10 datasets from diverse domains. While also advancing the state-of-the-art on COCO, Cascade-DETR substantially improves DETR-based detectors on all datasets in UDB10, even by over 10 mAP in some cases. The improvements under stringent quality requirements are even more pronounced. Our code and models will be released at https://github.com/SysCV/cascade-detr.

We propose a learning-based method to recover normals, specularity, and roughness from a single diffuse image of a material, using microgeometry appearance as our primary cue. Previous methods that work on single images tend to produce over-smooth outputs with artifacts, operate at limited resolution, or train one model per class with little room for generalization. Previous methods that work on single images tend to produce over-smooth outputs with artifacts, operate at limited resolution, or train one model per class with little room for generalization. In contrast, in this work, we propose a novel capture approach that leverages a generative network with attention and a U-Net discriminator, which shows outstanding performance integrating global information at reduced computational complexity. We showcase the performance of our method with a real dataset of digitized textile materials and show that a commodity flatbed scanner can produce the type of diffuse illumination required as input to our method. Additionally, because the problem might be illposed -more than a single diffuse image might be needed to disambiguate the specular reflection- or because the training dataset is not representative enough of the real distribution, we propose a novel framework to quantify the model's confidence about its prediction at test time. Our method is the first one to deal with the problem of modeling uncertainty in material digitization, increasing the trustworthiness of the process and enabling more intelligent strategies for dataset creation, as we demonstrate with an active learning experiment.

This paper presents a new methodology to alleviate the fundamental trade-off between accuracy and latency in spiking neural networks (SNNs). The approach involves decoding confidence information over time from the SNN outputs and using it to develop a decision-making agent that can dynamically determine when to terminate each inference. The proposed method, Dynamic Confidence, provides several significant benefits to SNNs. 1. It can effectively optimize latency dynamically at runtime, setting it apart from many existing low-latency SNN algorithms. Our experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets have demonstrated an average 40% speedup across eight different settings after applying Dynamic Confidence. 2. The decision-making agent in Dynamic Confidence is straightforward to construct and highly robust in parameter space, making it extremely easy to implement. 3. The proposed method enables visualizing the potential of any given SNN, which sets a target for current SNNs to approach. For instance, if an SNN can terminate at the most appropriate time point for each input sample, a ResNet-50 SNN can achieve an accuracy as high as 82.47% on ImageNet within just 4.71 time steps on average. Unlocking the potential of SNNs needs a highly-reliable decision-making agent to be constructed and fed with a high-quality estimation of ground truth. In this regard, Dynamic Confidence represents a meaningful step toward realizing the potential of SNNs.

Emerging 3D geometric foundation models, such as DUSt3R, offer a promising approach for in-the-wild 3D vision tasks. However, due to the high-dimensional nature of the problem space and scarcity of high-quality 3D data, these pre-trained models still struggle to generalize to many challenging circumstances, such as limited view overlap or low lighting. To address this, we propose LoRA3D, an efficient self-calibration pipeline to specialize the pre-trained models to target scenes using their own multi-view predictions. Taking sparse RGB images as input, we leverage robust optimization techniques to refine multi-view predictions and align them into a global coordinate frame. In particular, we incorporate prediction confidence into the geometric optimization process, automatically re-weighting the confidence to better reflect point estimation accuracy. We use the calibrated confidence to generate high-quality pseudo labels for the calibrating views and use low-rank adaptation (LoRA) to fine-tune the models on the pseudo-labeled data. Our method does not require any external priors or manual labels. It completes the self-calibration process on a single standard GPU within just 5 minutes. Each low-rank adapter requires only 18MB of storage. We evaluated our method on more than 160 scenes from the Replica, TUM and Waymo Open datasets, achieving up to 88% performance improvement on 3D reconstruction, multi-view pose estimation and novel-view rendering.

Rapid progress in 3D semantic segmentation is inseparable from the advances of deep network models, which highly rely on large-scale annotated data for training. To address the high cost and challenges of 3D point-level labeling, we present a method for semi-supervised point cloud semantic segmentation to adopt unlabeled point clouds in training to boost the model performance. Inspired by the recent contrastive loss in self-supervised tasks, we propose the guided point contrastive loss to enhance the feature representation and model generalization ability in semi-supervised setting. Semantic predictions on unlabeled point clouds serve as pseudo-label guidance in our loss to avoid negative pairs in the same category. Also, we design the confidence guidance to ensure high-quality feature learning. Besides, a category-balanced sampling strategy is proposed to collect positive and negative samples to mitigate the class imbalance problem. Extensive experiments on three datasets (ScanNet V2, S3DIS, and SemanticKITTI) show the effectiveness of our semi-supervised method to improve the prediction quality with unlabeled data.

Semi-Supervised Visual Grounding (SSVG) is a new challenge for its sparse labeled data with the need for multimodel understanding. A previous study, RefTeacher, makes the first attempt to tackle this task by adopting the teacher-student framework to provide pseudo confidence supervision and attention-based supervision. However, this approach is incompatible with current state-of-the-art visual grounding models, which follow the Transformer-based pipeline. These pipelines directly regress results without region proposals or foreground binary classification, rendering them unsuitable for fitting in RefTeacher due to the absence of confidence scores. Furthermore, the geometric difference in teacher and student inputs, stemming from different data augmentations, induces natural misalignment in attention-based constraints. To establish a compatible SSVG framework, our paper proposes the ACTive REtraining approach for Semi-Supervised Visual Grounding, abbreviated as ACTRESS. Initially, the model is enhanced by incorporating an additional quantized detection head to expose its detection confidence. Building upon this, ACTRESS consists of an active sampling strategy and a selective retraining strategy. The active sampling strategy iteratively selects high-quality pseudo labels by evaluating three crucial aspects: Faithfulness, Robustness, and Confidence, optimizing the utilization of unlabeled data. The selective retraining strategy retrains the model with periodic re-initialization of specific parameters, facilitating the model's escape from local minima. Extensive experiments demonstrates our superior performance on widely-used benchmark datasets.

Monocular 3D object detection (Mono 3Det) aims to identify 3D objects from a single RGB image. However, existing methods often assume training and test data follow the same distribution, which may not hold in real-world test scenarios. To address the out-of-distribution (OOD) problems, we explore a new adaptation paradigm for Mono 3Det, termed Fully Test-time Adaptation. It aims to adapt a well-trained model to unlabeled test data by handling potential data distribution shifts at test time without access to training data and test labels. However, applying this paradigm in Mono 3Det poses significant challenges due to OOD test data causing a remarkable decline in object detection scores. This decline conflicts with the pre-defined score thresholds of existing detection methods, leading to severe object omissions (i.e., rare positive detections and many false negatives). Consequently, the limited positive detection and plenty of noisy predictions cause test-time adaptation to fail in Mono 3Det. To handle this problem, we propose a novel Monocular Test-Time Adaptation (MonoTTA) method, based on two new strategies. 1) Reliability-driven adaptation: we empirically find that high-score objects are still reliable and the optimization of high-score objects can enhance confidence across all detections. Thus, we devise a self-adaptive strategy to identify reliable objects for model adaptation, which discovers potential objects and alleviates omissions. 2) Noise-guard adaptation: since high-score objects may be scarce, we develop a negative regularization term to exploit the numerous low-score objects via negative learning, preventing overfitting to noise and trivial solutions. Experimental results show that MonoTTA brings significant performance gains for Mono 3Det models in OOD test scenarios, approximately 190% gains by average on KITTI and 198% gains on nuScenes.

Predicting the binding structure of a small molecule ligand to a protein -- a task known as molecular docking -- is critical to drug design. Recent deep learning methods that treat docking as a regression problem have decreased runtime compared to traditional search-based methods but have yet to offer substantial improvements in accuracy. We instead frame molecular docking as a generative modeling problem and develop DiffDock, a diffusion generative model over the non-Euclidean manifold of ligand poses. To do so, we map this manifold to the product space of the degrees of freedom (translational, rotational, and torsional) involved in docking and develop an efficient diffusion process on this space. Empirically, DiffDock obtains a 38% top-1 success rate (RMSD<2A) on PDBBind, significantly outperforming the previous state-of-the-art of traditional docking (23%) and deep learning (20%) methods. Moreover, while previous methods are not able to dock on computationally folded structures (maximum accuracy 10.4%), DiffDock maintains significantly higher precision (21.7%). Finally, DiffDock has fast inference times and provides confidence estimates with high selective accuracy.

This study explores the use of LLMs for providing quantitative zero-shot sentiment analysis of implicit software desirability, addressing a critical challenge in product evaluation where traditional review scores, though convenient, fail to capture the richness of qualitative user feedback. Innovations include establishing a method that 1) works with qualitative user experience data without the need for explicit review scores, 2) focuses on implicit user satisfaction, and 3) provides scaled numerical sentiment analysis, offering a more nuanced understanding of user sentiment, instead of simply classifying sentiment as positive, neutral, or negative. Data is collected using the Microsoft Product Desirability Toolkit (PDT), a well-known qualitative user experience analysis tool. For initial exploration, the PDT metric was given to users of two software systems. PDT data was fed through several LLMs (Claude Sonnet 3 and 3.5, GPT4, and GPT4o) and through a leading transfer learning technique, Twitter-Roberta-Base-Sentiment, and Vader, a leading sentiment analysis tool. Each system was asked to evaluate the data in two ways, by looking at the sentiment expressed in the PDT word/explanation pairs; and by looking at the sentiment expressed by the users in their grouped selection of five words and explanations, as a whole. Each LLM provided a sentiment score, its confidence (low, medium, high) in the score, and an explanation of the score. All LLMs tested were able to statistically detect user sentiment from the users' grouped data, whereas TRBS and Vader were not. The confidence and explanation of confidence provided by the LLMs assisted in understanding user sentiment. This study adds deeper understanding of evaluating user experiences, toward the goal of creating a universal tool that quantifies implicit sentiment.

Weakly-Supervised Semantic Segmentation (WSSS) using image-level labels typically utilizes Class Activation Map (CAM) to generate the pseudo labels. Limited by the local structure perception of CNN, CAM usually cannot identify the integral object regions. Though the recent Vision Transformer (ViT) can remedy this flaw, we observe it also brings the over-smoothing issue, \ie, the final patch tokens incline to be uniform. In this work, we propose Token Contrast (ToCo) to address this issue and further explore the virtue of ViT for WSSS. Firstly, motivated by the observation that intermediate layers in ViT can still retain semantic diversity, we designed a Patch Token Contrast module (PTC). PTC supervises the final patch tokens with the pseudo token relations derived from intermediate layers, allowing them to align the semantic regions and thus yield more accurate CAM. Secondly, to further differentiate the low-confidence regions in CAM, we devised a Class Token Contrast module (CTC) inspired by the fact that class tokens in ViT can capture high-level semantics. CTC facilitates the representation consistency between uncertain local regions and global objects by contrasting their class tokens. Experiments on the PASCAL VOC and MS COCO datasets show the proposed ToCo can remarkably surpass other single-stage competitors and achieve comparable performance with state-of-the-art multi-stage methods. Code is available at https://github.com/rulixiang/ToCo.

This project aims to investigate a novel sequence generation method inspired by the AlphaGo paradigm, adapting it for use with large language models (LLMs). The proposed approach involves creating search trees of different possible completions and evaluating these completions based on model confidence. By considering various paths in the search tree and scoring them according to the model's confidence in each completion, we can generate diverse and high-quality sequences. This research explores the implementation of this paradigm by using confidence as a proxy for response quality akin to beam search vijayakumar2016diverse. The primary goal of this paper is to outline the paradigm and demonstrate its potential, rather than focusing on achieving perfect results. The paper will outline the reasons why we believe this paradigm has the potential to improve LLMs in the following manners: 1) increase output quality, 2) decrease errors, 3) eliminate or reduce the compound error problems, 4) generate diverse and creative completions, 5) allow for iterative problem-solving, and 6) self-training. We expect this approach to yield a set of diverse and coherent sequences, offering insights into balancing exploration and exploitation in sequence generation. Potential applications include creative text generation tasks, such as storytelling and content creation, as well as other natural language processing domains, like machine translation and automated summarization. The goal is that the model will be far more effective as it will be able to consider many possible variations allowing it to find the ideal completion. This research aims to contribute to the understanding of effective search strategies in sequence generation and their impact on generating high-quality, varied textual outputs.

In computational social science (CSS), researchers analyze documents to explain social and political phenomena. In most scenarios, CSS researchers first obtain labels for documents and then explain labels using interpretable regression analyses in the second step. One increasingly common way to annotate documents cheaply at scale is through large language models (LLMs). However, like other scalable ways of producing annotations, such surrogate labels are often imperfect and biased. We present a new algorithm for using imperfect annotation surrogates for downstream statistical analyses while guaranteeing statistical properties -- like asymptotic unbiasedness and proper uncertainty quantification -- which are fundamental to CSS research. We show that direct use of surrogate labels in downstream statistical analyses leads to substantial bias and invalid confidence intervals, even with high surrogate accuracy of 80-90%. To address this, we build on debiased machine learning to propose the design-based supervised learning (DSL) estimator. DSL employs a doubly-robust procedure to combine surrogate labels with a smaller number of high-quality, gold-standard labels. Our approach guarantees valid inference for downstream statistical analyses, even when surrogates are arbitrarily biased and without requiring stringent assumptions, by controlling the probability of sampling documents for gold-standard labeling. Both our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that DSL provides valid statistical inference while achieving root mean squared errors comparable to existing alternatives that focus only on prediction without inferential guarantees.

We present a principled approach to provide LLM-based evaluation with a rigorous guarantee of human agreement. We first propose that a reliable evaluation method should not uncritically rely on model preferences for pairwise evaluation, but rather assess the confidence of judge models and selectively decide when to trust its judgement. We then show that under this selective evaluation framework, human agreement can be provably guaranteed -- such that the model evaluation aligns with that of humans to a user-specified agreement level. As part of our framework, we also introduce Simulated Annotators, a novel confidence estimation method that significantly improves judge calibration and thus enables high coverage of evaluated instances. Finally, we propose Cascaded Selective Evaluation, where we use cheaper models as initial judges and escalate to stronger models only when necessary -- again, while still providing a provable guarantee of human agreement. Experimental results show that Cascaded Selective Evaluation guarantees strong alignment with humans, far beyond what LLM judges could achieve without selective evaluation. For example, on a subset of Chatbot Arena where GPT-4 almost never achieves 80% human agreement, our method, even while employing substantially cost-effective models such as Mistral-7B, guarantees over 80% human agreement with almost 80% test coverage.

Methods with adaptive stepsizes, such as AdaGrad and Adam, are essential for training modern Deep Learning models, especially Large Language Models. Typically, the noise in the stochastic gradients is heavy-tailed for the later ones. Gradient clipping provably helps to achieve good high-probability convergence for such noises. However, despite the similarity between AdaGrad/Adam and Clip-SGD, the high-probability convergence of AdaGrad/Adam has not been studied in this case. In this work, we prove that AdaGrad (and its delayed version) can have provably bad high-probability convergence if the noise is heavy-tailed. To fix this issue, we propose a new version of AdaGrad called Clip-RAdaGradD (Clipped Reweighted AdaGrad with Delay) and prove its high-probability convergence bounds with polylogarithmic dependence on the confidence level for smooth convex/non-convex stochastic optimization with heavy-tailed noise. Our empirical evaluations, including NLP model fine-tuning, highlight the superiority of clipped versions of AdaGrad/Adam in handling the heavy-tailed noise.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it correlates with accuracy. Confidence is measured (i) qualitatively in terms of persistence in keeping their answer when prompted to reconsider, and (ii) quantitatively in terms of self-reported confidence score. We investigate the performance of three LLMs -- GPT4o, GPT4-turbo and Mistral -- on two benchmark sets of questions on causal judgement and formal fallacies and a set of probability and statistical puzzles and paradoxes. Although the LLMs show significantly better performance than random guessing, there is a wide variability in their tendency to change their initial answers. There is a positive correlation between qualitative confidence and accuracy, but the overall accuracy for the second answer is often worse than for the first answer. There is a strong tendency to overstate the self-reported confidence score. Confidence is only partially explained by the underlying token-level probability. The material effects of prompting on qualitative confidence and the strong tendency for overconfidence indicate that current LLMs do not have any internally coherent sense of confidence.

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of black-box approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: prompting strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, sampling methods for generating multiple responses, and aggregation techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks-confidence calibration and failure prediction-across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be overconfident, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

To maintain user trust, large language models (LLMs) should signal low confidence on examples where they are incorrect, instead of misleading the user. The standard approach of estimating confidence is to use the softmax probabilities of these models, but as of November 2023, state-of-the-art LLMs such as GPT-4 and Claude-v1.3 do not provide access to these probabilities. We first study eliciting confidence linguistically -- asking an LLM for its confidence in its answer -- which performs reasonably (80.5% AUC on GPT-4 averaged across 12 question-answering datasets -- 7% above a random baseline) but leaves room for improvement. We then explore using a surrogate confidence model -- using a model where we do have probabilities to evaluate the original model's confidence in a given question. Surprisingly, even though these probabilities come from a different and often weaker model, this method leads to higher AUC than linguistic confidences on 9 out of 12 datasets. Our best method composing linguistic confidences and surrogate model probabilities gives state-of-the-art confidence estimates on all 12 datasets (84.6% average AUC on GPT-4).

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from 0-1.") is a natural way of evaluating its uncertainty. However, models struggle to provide absolute assessments of confidence (i.e. judging confidence in answering a question independent of other questions) and the coarse-grained scores they produce are not useful for evaluating the correctness of their answers. We propose relative confidence estimation, where we match up questions against each other and ask the model to make relative judgments of confidence ("Which question are you more confident in answering correctly?"). Treating each question as a "player" in a series of matchups against other questions and the model's preferences as match outcomes, we can use rank aggregation methods like Elo rating and Bradley-Terry to translate the model's confidence preferences into confidence scores. We evaluate relative confidence estimation against absolute confidence estimation and self-consistency confidence methods on five state-of-the-art LMs -- GPT-4, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Llama 3.1 405B -- across 14 challenging STEM, social science, and commonsense reasoning question answering tasks. Our results demonstrate that relative confidence estimation consistently provides more reliable confidence scores than absolute confidence estimation, with average gains of 3.5% in selective classification AUC over direct absolute confidence estimation methods and 1.7% over self-consistency approaches across all models and datasets.

Multi-agent debates have been introduced to improve the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) by having multiple agents discuss solutions to a problem over several rounds of debate. However, models often generate incorrect yet confident-sounding responses, which can mislead others. This issue arises partly because agents do not consider how confident their peers are. To address this, we propose DebUnc, a debate framework that uses uncertainty metrics to assess agent confidence. Confidence is then conveyed through a modified attention mechanism that adjusts token weights, or through textual prompts. Evaluations across benchmarks show that attention-based methods are particularly effective and that performance continues to improve as uncertainty estimation becomes more reliable. The code is available at https://github.com/lukeyoffe/debunc.

When answering questions, LLMs can convey not only an answer, but a level of confidence about the answer being correct. This includes explicit confidence markers (e.g. giving a numeric score) as well as implicit markers, like an authoritative tone or elaborating with additional knowledge. For LLMs to be trustworthy knowledge sources, the confidence they convey should match their actual expertise; however, most current models tend towards overconfidence. To calibrate both implicit and explicit confidence markers, we introduce a pragmatic, listener-aware finetuning method (LACIE) that models the listener, considering not only whether an answer is right, but whether it will be accepted by a listener. We cast calibration as preference optimization, creating data via a two-agent game, where a speaker model's outputs are judged by a simulated listener. We then finetune three LLMs (Mistral-7B, Llama3-8B, Llama3-70B) with LACIE, and show that the resulting models are better calibrated w.r.t. a simulated listener. Crucially, these trends transfer to human listeners, helping them correctly predict model correctness: we conduct a human evaluation where annotators accept or reject an LLM's answers, finding that training with LACIE results in 47% fewer incorrect answers being accepted while maintaining the same level of acceptance for correct answers. Furthermore, LACIE generalizes to another dataset, resulting in a large increase in truthfulness on TruthfulQA when trained on TriviaQA. Our analysis indicates that LACIE leads to a better confidence separation between correct and incorrect examples. Qualitatively, we find that a LACIE-trained model hedges more and implicitly signals certainty when it is correct by using an authoritative tone or including details. Finally, LACIE finetuning leads to an emergent increase in model abstention (e.g. saying "I don't know") for answers that are likely wrong.

This study investigates GPT-4's assessment of its performance in healthcare applications. A simple prompting technique was used to prompt the LLM with questions taken from the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) questionnaire and it was tasked to evaluate its confidence score before posing the question and after asking the question. The questionnaire was categorized into two groups-questions with feedback (WF) and questions with no feedback(NF) post-question. The model was asked to provide absolute and relative confidence scores before and after each question. The experimental findings were analyzed using statistical tools to study the variability of confidence in WF and NF groups. Additionally, a sequential analysis was conducted to observe the performance variation for the WF and NF groups. Results indicate that feedback influences relative confidence but doesn't consistently increase or decrease it. Understanding the performance of LLM is paramount in exploring its utility in sensitive areas like healthcare. This study contributes to the ongoing discourse on the reliability of AI, particularly of LLMs like GPT-4, within healthcare, offering insights into how feedback mechanisms might be optimized to enhance AI-assisted medical education and decision support.