Daily Papers

Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) significantly degrades when only a limited number of views are available. To complement the lack of 3D information, depth-based models, such as DSNeRF and MonoSDF, explicitly assume the availability of accurate depth maps of multiple views. They linearly scale the accurate depth maps as supervision to guide the predicted depth of few-shot NeRFs. However, accurate depth maps are difficult and expensive to capture due to wide-range depth distances in the wild. In this work, we present a new Sparse-view NeRF (SparseNeRF) framework that exploits depth priors from real-world inaccurate observations. The inaccurate depth observations are either from pre-trained depth models or coarse depth maps of consumer-level depth sensors. Since coarse depth maps are not strictly scaled to the ground-truth depth maps, we propose a simple yet effective constraint, a local depth ranking method, on NeRFs such that the expected depth ranking of the NeRF is consistent with that of the coarse depth maps in local patches. To preserve the spatial continuity of the estimated depth of NeRF, we further propose a spatial continuity constraint to encourage the consistency of the expected depth continuity of NeRF with coarse depth maps. Surprisingly, with simple depth ranking constraints, SparseNeRF outperforms all state-of-the-art few-shot NeRF methods (including depth-based models) on standard LLFF and DTU datasets. Moreover, we collect a new dataset NVS-RGBD that contains real-world depth maps from Azure Kinect, ZED 2, and iPhone 13 Pro. Extensive experiments on NVS-RGBD dataset also validate the superiority and generalizability of SparseNeRF. Code and dataset are available at https://sparsenerf.github.io/.

As a flexible passive 3D sensing means, unsupervised learning of depth from monocular videos is becoming an important research topic. It utilizes the photometric errors between the target view and the synthesized views from its adjacent source views as the loss instead of the difference from the ground truth. Occlusion and scene dynamics in real-world scenes still adversely affect the learning, despite significant progress made recently. In this paper, we show that deliberately manipulating photometric errors can efficiently deal with these difficulties better. We first propose an outlier masking technique that considers the occluded or dynamic pixels as statistical outliers in the photometric error map. With the outlier masking, the network learns the depth of objects that move in the opposite direction to the camera more accurately. To the best of our knowledge, such cases have not been seriously considered in the previous works, even though they pose a high risk in applications like autonomous driving. We also propose an efficient weighted multi-scale scheme to reduce the artifacts in the predicted depth maps. Extensive experiments on the KITTI dataset and additional experiments on the Cityscapes dataset have verified the proposed approach's effectiveness on depth or ego-motion estimation. Furthermore, for the first time, we evaluate the predicted depth on the regions of dynamic objects and static background separately for both supervised and unsupervised methods. The evaluation further verifies the effectiveness of our proposed technical approach and provides some interesting observations that might inspire future research in this direction.

Learning-based multi-view stereo (MVS) methods deal with predicting accurate depth maps to achieve an accurate and complete 3D representation. Despite the excellent performance, existing methods ignore the fact that a suitable depth geometry is also critical in MVS. In this paper, we demonstrate that different depth geometries have significant performance gaps, even using the same depth prediction error. Therefore, we introduce an ideal depth geometry composed of Saddle-Shaped Cells, whose predicted depth map oscillates upward and downward around the ground-truth surface, rather than maintaining a continuous and smooth depth plane. To achieve it, we develop a coarse-to-fine framework called Dual-MVSNet (DMVSNet), which can produce an oscillating depth plane. Technically, we predict two depth values for each pixel (Dual-Depth), and propose a novel loss function and a checkerboard-shaped selecting strategy to constrain the predicted depth geometry. Compared to existing methods,DMVSNet achieves a high rank on the DTU benchmark and obtains the top performance on challenging scenes of Tanks and Temples, demonstrating its strong performance and generalization ability. Our method also points to a new research direction for considering depth geometry in MVS.

Self-supervised monocular depth estimators can be trained or fine-tuned on new scenes using only images and no ground-truth depth data, achieving good accuracy. However, these estimators suffer from the inherent ambiguity of the depth scale, significantly limiting their applicability. In this work, we present a method for transferring the depth-scale from existing source datasets collected with ground-truth depths to depth estimators that are trained using self-supervision on a newly collected target dataset consisting of images only, solving a significant limiting factor. We show that self-supervision based on projective geometry results in predicted depths that are linearly correlated with their ground-truth depths. Moreover, the linearity of this relationship also holds when jointly training on images from two different (real or synthetic) source and target domains. We utilize this observed property and model the relationship between the ground-truth and the predicted up-to-scale depths of images from the source domain using a single global scalar. Then, we scale the predicted up-to-scale depths of images from the target domain using the estimated global scaling factor, performing depth-scale transfer between the two domains. This suggested method was evaluated on the target KITTI and DDAD datasets, while using other real or synthetic source datasets, that have a larger field-of-view, other image style or structural content. Our approach achieves competitive accuracy on KITTI, even without using the specially tailored vKITTI or vKITTI2 datasets, and higher accuracy on DDAD, when using both real or synthetic source datasets.

A significant weakness of most current deep Convolutional Neural Networks is the need to train them using vast amounts of manu- ally labelled data. In this work we propose a unsupervised framework to learn a deep convolutional neural network for single view depth predic- tion, without requiring a pre-training stage or annotated ground truth depths. We achieve this by training the network in a manner analogous to an autoencoder. At training time we consider a pair of images, source and target, with small, known camera motion between the two such as a stereo pair. We train the convolutional encoder for the task of predicting the depth map for the source image. To do so, we explicitly generate an inverse warp of the target image using the predicted depth and known inter-view displacement, to reconstruct the source image; the photomet- ric error in the reconstruction is the reconstruction loss for the encoder. The acquisition of this training data is considerably simpler than for equivalent systems, requiring no manual annotation, nor calibration of depth sensor to camera. We show that our network trained on less than half of the KITTI dataset (without any further augmentation) gives com- parable performance to that of the state of art supervised methods for single view depth estimation.

Depth estimation is a cornerstone for autonomous driving, yet acquiring per-pixel depth ground truth for supervised learning is challenging. Self-Supervised Surround Depth Estimation (SSSDE) from consecutive images offers an economical alternative. While previous SSSDE methods have proposed different mechanisms to fuse information across images, few of them explicitly consider the cross-view constraints, leading to inferior performance, particularly in overlapping regions. This paper proposes an efficient and consistent pose estimation design and two loss functions to enhance cross-view consistency for SSSDE. For pose estimation, we propose to use only front-view images to reduce training memory and sustain pose estimation consistency. The first loss function is the dense depth consistency loss, which penalizes the difference between predicted depths in overlapping regions. The second one is the multi-view reconstruction consistency loss, which aims to maintain consistency between reconstruction from spatial and spatial-temporal contexts. Additionally, we introduce a novel flipping augmentation to improve the performance further. Our techniques enable a simple neural model to achieve state-of-the-art performance on the DDAD and nuScenes datasets. Last but not least, our proposed techniques can be easily applied to other methods. The code will be made public.

Unsupervised learning of depth and ego-motion from unlabelled monocular videos has recently drawn great attention, which avoids the use of expensive ground truth in the supervised one. It achieves this by using the photometric errors between the target view and the synthesized views from its adjacent source views as the loss. Despite significant progress, the learning still suffers from occlusion and scene dynamics. This paper shows that carefully manipulating photometric errors can tackle these difficulties better. The primary improvement is achieved by a statistical technique that can mask out the invisible or nonstationary pixels in the photometric error map and thus prevents misleading the networks. With this outlier masking approach, the depth of objects moving in the opposite direction to the camera can be estimated more accurately. To the best of our knowledge, such scenarios have not been seriously considered in the previous works, even though they pose a higher risk in applications like autonomous driving. We also propose an efficient weighted multi-scale scheme to reduce the artifacts in the predicted depth maps. Extensive experiments on the KITTI dataset show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches. The overall system achieves state-of-theart performance on both depth and ego-motion estimation.

Self-supervised monocular depth estimation networks are trained to predict scene depth using nearby frames as a supervision signal during training. However, for many applications, sequence information in the form of video frames is also available at test time. The vast majority of monocular networks do not make use of this extra signal, thus ignoring valuable information that could be used to improve the predicted depth. Those that do, either use computationally expensive test-time refinement techniques or off-the-shelf recurrent networks, which only indirectly make use of the geometric information that is inherently available. We propose ManyDepth, an adaptive approach to dense depth estimation that can make use of sequence information at test time, when it is available. Taking inspiration from multi-view stereo, we propose a deep end-to-end cost volume based approach that is trained using self-supervision only. We present a novel consistency loss that encourages the network to ignore the cost volume when it is deemed unreliable, e.g. in the case of moving objects, and an augmentation scheme to cope with static cameras. Our detailed experiments on both KITTI and Cityscapes show that we outperform all published self-supervised baselines, including those that use single or multiple frames at test time.

Recent work in unsupervised multi-object segmentation shows impressive results by predicting motion from a single image despite the inherent ambiguity in predicting motion without the next image. On the other hand, the set of possible motions for an image can be constrained to a low-dimensional space by considering the scene structure and moving objects in it. We propose to model pixel-wise geometry and object motion to remove ambiguity in reconstructing flow from a single image. Specifically, we divide the image into coherently moving regions and use depth to construct flow bases that best explain the observed flow in each region. We achieve state-of-the-art results in unsupervised multi-object segmentation on synthetic and real-world datasets by modeling the scene structure and object motion. Our evaluation of the predicted depth maps shows reliable performance in monocular depth estimation.

We present 3D Cinemagraphy, a new technique that marries 2D image animation with 3D photography. Given a single still image as input, our goal is to generate a video that contains both visual content animation and camera motion. We empirically find that naively combining existing 2D image animation and 3D photography methods leads to obvious artifacts or inconsistent animation. Our key insight is that representing and animating the scene in 3D space offers a natural solution to this task. To this end, we first convert the input image into feature-based layered depth images using predicted depth values, followed by unprojecting them to a feature point cloud. To animate the scene, we perform motion estimation and lift the 2D motion into the 3D scene flow. Finally, to resolve the problem of hole emergence as points move forward, we propose to bidirectionally displace the point cloud as per the scene flow and synthesize novel views by separately projecting them into target image planes and blending the results. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. A user study is also conducted to validate the compelling rendering results of our method.

We present a novel framework for reconstructing animatable human avatars from multiple images, termed CanonicalFusion. Our central concept involves integrating individual reconstruction results into the canonical space. To be specific, we first predict Linear Blend Skinning (LBS) weight maps and depth maps using a shared-encoder-dual-decoder network, enabling direct canonicalization of the 3D mesh from the predicted depth maps. Here, instead of predicting high-dimensional skinning weights, we infer compressed skinning weights, i.e., 3-dimensional vector, with the aid of pre-trained MLP networks. We also introduce a forward skinning-based differentiable rendering scheme to merge the reconstructed results from multiple images. This scheme refines the initial mesh by reposing the canonical mesh via the forward skinning and by minimizing photometric and geometric errors between the rendered and the predicted results. Our optimization scheme considers the position and color of vertices as well as the joint angles for each image, thereby mitigating the negative effects of pose errors. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and compare our CanonicalFusion with state-of-the-art methods. Our source codes are available at https://github.com/jsshin98/CanonicalFusion.

Light-weight time-of-flight (ToF) depth sensors are compact and cost-efficient, and thus widely used on mobile devices for tasks such as autofocus and obstacle detection. However, due to the sparse and noisy depth measurements, these sensors have rarely been considered for dense geometry reconstruction. In this work, we present the first dense SLAM system with a monocular camera and a light-weight ToF sensor. Specifically, we propose a multi-modal implicit scene representation that supports rendering both the signals from the RGB camera and light-weight ToF sensor which drives the optimization by comparing with the raw sensor inputs. Moreover, in order to guarantee successful pose tracking and reconstruction, we exploit a predicted depth as an intermediate supervision and develop a coarse-to-fine optimization strategy for efficient learning of the implicit representation. At last, the temporal information is explicitly exploited to deal with the noisy signals from light-weight ToF sensors to improve the accuracy and robustness of the system. Experiments demonstrate that our system well exploits the signals of light-weight ToF sensors and achieves competitive results both on camera tracking and dense scene reconstruction. Project page: https://zju3dv.github.io/tof_slam/.

Transformer-based methods have swept the benchmarks on 2D and 3D detection on images. Because tokenization before the attention mechanism drops the spatial information, positional encoding becomes critical for those methods. Recent works found that encodings based on samples of the 3D viewing rays can significantly improve the quality of multi-camera 3D object detection. We hypothesize that 3D point locations can provide more information than rays. Therefore, we introduce 3D point positional encoding, 3DPPE, to the 3D detection Transformer decoder. Although 3D measurements are not available at the inference time of monocular 3D object detection, 3DPPE uses predicted depth to approximate the real point positions. Our hybriddepth module combines direct and categorical depth to estimate the refined depth of each pixel. Despite the approximation, 3DPPE achieves 46.0 mAP and 51.4 NDS on the competitive nuScenes dataset, significantly outperforming encodings based on ray samples. We make the codes available at https://github.com/drilistbox/3DPPE.

Recent vision-only perception models for autonomous driving achieved promising results by encoding multi-view image features into Bird's-Eye-View (BEV) space. A critical step and the main bottleneck of these methods is transforming image features into the BEV coordinate frame. This paper focuses on leveraging geometry information, such as depth, to model such feature transformation. Existing works rely on non-parametric depth distribution modeling leading to significant memory consumption, or ignore the geometry information to address this problem. In contrast, we propose to use parametric depth distribution modeling for feature transformation. We first lift the 2D image features to the 3D space defined for the ego vehicle via a predicted parametric depth distribution for each pixel in each view. Then, we aggregate the 3D feature volume based on the 3D space occupancy derived from depth to the BEV frame. Finally, we use the transformed features for downstream tasks such as object detection and semantic segmentation. Existing semantic segmentation methods do also suffer from an hallucination problem as they do not take visibility information into account. This hallucination can be particularly problematic for subsequent modules such as control and planning. To mitigate the issue, our method provides depth uncertainty and reliable visibility-aware estimations. We further leverage our parametric depth modeling to present a novel visibility-aware evaluation metric that, when taken into account, can mitigate the hallucination problem. Extensive experiments on object detection and semantic segmentation on the nuScenes datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods on both tasks.

Monocular depth estimation aims to infer a dense depth map from a single image, which is a fundamental and prevalent task in computer vision. Many previous works have shown impressive depth estimation results through carefully designed network structures, but they usually ignore the planar information and therefore perform poorly in low-texture areas of indoor scenes. In this paper, we propose Plane2Depth, which adaptively utilizes plane information to improve depth prediction within a hierarchical framework. Specifically, in the proposed plane guided depth generator (PGDG), we design a set of plane queries as prototypes to softly model planes in the scene and predict per-pixel plane coefficients. Then the predicted plane coefficients can be converted into metric depth values with the pinhole camera model. In the proposed adaptive plane query aggregation (APGA) module, we introduce a novel feature interaction approach to improve the aggregation of multi-scale plane features in a top-down manner. Extensive experiments show that our method can achieve outstanding performance, especially in low-texture or repetitive areas. Furthermore, under the same backbone network, our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on the NYU-Depth-v2 dataset, achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art methods KITTI dataset and can be generalized to unseen scenes effectively.

We propose TalkNet, a non-autoregressive convolutional neural model for speech synthesis with explicit pitch and duration prediction. The model consists of three feed-forward convolutional networks. The first network predicts grapheme durations. An input text is expanded by repeating each symbol according to the predicted duration. The second network predicts pitch value for every mel frame. The third network generates a mel-spectrogram from the expanded text conditioned on predicted pitch. All networks are based on 1D depth-wise separable convolutional architecture. The explicit duration prediction eliminates word skipping and repeating. The quality of the generated speech nearly matches the best auto-regressive models - TalkNet trained on the LJSpeech dataset got MOS 4.08. The model has only 13.2M parameters, almost 2x less than the present state-of-the-art text-to-speech models. The non-autoregressive architecture allows for fast training and inference. The small model size and fast inference make the TalkNet an attractive candidate for embedded speech synthesis.

Unsupervised learning of depth from indoor monocular videos is challenging as the artificial environment contains many textureless regions. Fortunately, the indoor scenes are full of specific structures, such as planes and lines, which should help guide unsupervised depth learning. This paper proposes PLNet that leverages the plane and line priors to enhance the depth estimation. We first represent the scene geometry using local planar coefficients and impose the smoothness constraint on the representation. Moreover, we enforce the planar and linear consistency by randomly selecting some sets of points that are probably coplanar or collinear to construct simple and effective consistency losses. To verify the proposed method's effectiveness, we further propose to evaluate the flatness and straightness of the predicted point cloud on the reliable planar and linear regions. The regularity of these regions indicates quality indoor reconstruction. Experiments on NYU Depth V2 and ScanNet show that PLNet outperforms existing methods. The code is available at https://github.com/HalleyJiang/PLNet.

Solving grid puzzles involves a significant amount of logical reasoning. Hence, it is a good domain to evaluate the reasoning capability of a model which can then guide us to improve the reasoning ability of models. However, most existing works evaluate only the final predicted answer of a puzzle, without delving into an in-depth analysis of the LLMs' reasoning chains (such as where they falter) or providing any finer metrics to evaluate them. Since LLMs may rely on simple heuristics or artifacts to predict the final answer, it is crucial to evaluate the generated reasoning chain beyond overall correctness measures, for accurately evaluating the reasoning abilities of LLMs. To this end, we first develop GridPuzzle, an evaluation dataset comprising 274 grid-based puzzles with different complexities. Second, we propose a new error taxonomy derived from manual analysis of reasoning chains from LLMs including GPT-4, Claude-3, Gemini, Mistral, and Llama-2. Then, we develop an LLM-based framework for large-scale subjective evaluation (i.e., identifying errors) and an objective metric, PuzzleEval, to evaluate the correctness of reasoning chains. Evaluating reasoning chains from LLMs leads to several interesting findings. We further show that existing prompting methods used for enhancing models' reasoning abilities do not improve performance on GridPuzzle. This highlights the importance of understanding fine-grained errors and presents a challenge for future research to enhance LLMs' puzzle-solving abilities by developing methods that address these errors. Data and source code are available at https://github.com/Mihir3009/GridPuzzle.

Training a neural network requires choosing a suitable learning rate, which involves a trade-off between speed and effectiveness of convergence. While there has been considerable theoretical and empirical analysis of how large the learning rate can be, most prior work focuses only on late-stage training. In this work, we introduce the maximal initial learning rate eta^{ast} - the largest learning rate at which a randomly initialized neural network can successfully begin training and achieve (at least) a given threshold accuracy. Using a simple approach to estimate eta^{ast}, we observe that in constant-width fully-connected ReLU networks, eta^{ast} behaves differently from the maximum learning rate later in training. Specifically, we find that eta^{ast} is well predicted as a power of depth times width, provided that (i) the width of the network is sufficiently large compared to the depth, and (ii) the input layer is trained at a relatively small learning rate. We further analyze the relationship between eta^{ast} and the sharpness lambda_{1} of the network at initialization, indicating they are closely though not inversely related. We formally prove bounds for lambda_{1} in terms of depth times width that align with our empirical results.

A key contributor to recent progress in 3D detection from single images is monocular depth estimation. Existing methods focus on how to leverage depth explicitly, by generating pseudo-pointclouds or providing attention cues for image features. More recent works leverage depth prediction as a pretraining task and fine-tune the depth representation while training it for 3D detection. However, the adaptation is insufficient and is limited in scale by manual labels. In this work, we propose to further align depth representation with the target domain in unsupervised fashions. Our methods leverage commonly available LiDAR or RGB videos during training time to fine-tune the depth representation, which leads to improved 3D detectors. Especially when using RGB videos, we show that our two-stage training by first generating pseudo-depth labels is critical because of the inconsistency in loss distribution between the two tasks. With either type of reference data, our multi-task learning approach improves over the state of the art on both KITTI and NuScenes, while matching the test-time complexity of its single task sub-network.

Large-scale pre-trained vision models are becoming increasingly prevalent, offering expressive and generalizable visual representations that benefit various downstream tasks. Recent studies on the emergent properties of these models have revealed their high-level geometric understanding, in particular in the context of depth perception. However, it remains unclear how depth perception arises in these models without explicit depth supervision provided during pre-training. To investigate this, we examine whether the monocular depth cues, similar to those used by the human visual system, emerge in these models. We introduce a new benchmark, DepthCues, designed to evaluate depth cue understanding, and present findings across 20 diverse and representative pre-trained vision models. Our analysis shows that human-like depth cues emerge in more recent larger models. We also explore enhancing depth perception in large vision models by fine-tuning on DepthCues, and find that even without dense depth supervision, this improves depth estimation. To support further research, our benchmark and evaluation code will be made publicly available for studying depth perception in vision models.

Recent advances in monocular depth estimation have been made by incorporating natural language as additional guidance. Although yielding impressive results, the impact of the language prior, particularly in terms of generalization and robustness, remains unexplored. In this paper, we address this gap by quantifying the impact of this prior and introduce methods to benchmark its effectiveness across various settings. We generate "low-level" sentences that convey object-centric, three-dimensional spatial relationships, incorporate them as additional language priors and evaluate their downstream impact on depth estimation. Our key finding is that current language-guided depth estimators perform optimally only with scene-level descriptions and counter-intuitively fare worse with low level descriptions. Despite leveraging additional data, these methods are not robust to directed adversarial attacks and decline in performance with an increase in distribution shift. Finally, to provide a foundation for future research, we identify points of failures and offer insights to better understand these shortcomings. With an increasing number of methods using language for depth estimation, our findings highlight the opportunities and pitfalls that require careful consideration for effective deployment in real-world settings

We present a foundation model for zero-shot metric monocular depth estimation. Our model, Depth Pro, synthesizes high-resolution depth maps with unparalleled sharpness and high-frequency details. The predictions are metric, with absolute scale, without relying on the availability of metadata such as camera intrinsics. And the model is fast, producing a 2.25-megapixel depth map in 0.3 seconds on a standard GPU. These characteristics are enabled by a number of technical contributions, including an efficient multi-scale vision transformer for dense prediction, a training protocol that combines real and synthetic datasets to achieve high metric accuracy alongside fine boundary tracing, dedicated evaluation metrics for boundary accuracy in estimated depth maps, and state-of-the-art focal length estimation from a single image. Extensive experiments analyze specific design choices and demonstrate that Depth Pro outperforms prior work along multiple dimensions. We release code and weights at https://github.com/apple/ml-depth-pro

This work presents Depth Anything V2. Without pursuing fancy techniques, we aim to reveal crucial findings to pave the way towards building a powerful monocular depth estimation model. Notably, compared with V1, this version produces much finer and more robust depth predictions through three key practices: 1) replacing all labeled real images with synthetic images, 2) scaling up the capacity of our teacher model, and 3) teaching student models via the bridge of large-scale pseudo-labeled real images. Compared with the latest models built on Stable Diffusion, our models are significantly more efficient (more than 10x faster) and more accurate. We offer models of different scales (ranging from 25M to 1.3B params) to support extensive scenarios. Benefiting from their strong generalization capability, we fine-tune them with metric depth labels to obtain our metric depth models. In addition to our models, considering the limited diversity and frequent noise in current test sets, we construct a versatile evaluation benchmark with precise annotations and diverse scenes to facilitate future research.

In this paper, we propose a novel video depth estimation approach, FutureDepth, which enables the model to implicitly leverage multi-frame and motion cues to improve depth estimation by making it learn to predict the future at training. More specifically, we propose a future prediction network, F-Net, which takes the features of multiple consecutive frames and is trained to predict multi-frame features one time step ahead iteratively. In this way, F-Net learns the underlying motion and correspondence information, and we incorporate its features into the depth decoding process. Additionally, to enrich the learning of multiframe correspondence cues, we further leverage a reconstruction network, R-Net, which is trained via adaptively masked auto-encoding of multiframe feature volumes. At inference time, both F-Net and R-Net are used to produce queries to work with the depth decoder, as well as a final refinement network. Through extensive experiments on several benchmarks, i.e., NYUDv2, KITTI, DDAD, and Sintel, which cover indoor, driving, and open-domain scenarios, we show that FutureDepth significantly improves upon baseline models, outperforms existing video depth estimation methods, and sets new state-of-the-art (SOTA) accuracy. Furthermore, FutureDepth is more efficient than existing SOTA video depth estimation models and has similar latencies when comparing to monocular models

Accurate depth estimation under out-of-distribution (OoD) scenarios, such as adverse weather conditions, sensor failure, and noise contamination, is desirable for safety-critical applications. Existing depth estimation systems, however, suffer inevitably from real-world corruptions and perturbations and are struggled to provide reliable depth predictions under such cases. In this paper, we summarize the winning solutions from the RoboDepth Challenge -- an academic competition designed to facilitate and advance robust OoD depth estimation. This challenge was developed based on the newly established KITTI-C and NYUDepth2-C benchmarks. We hosted two stand-alone tracks, with an emphasis on robust self-supervised and robust fully-supervised depth estimation, respectively. Out of more than two hundred participants, nine unique and top-performing solutions have appeared, with novel designs ranging from the following aspects: spatial- and frequency-domain augmentations, masked image modeling, image restoration and super-resolution, adversarial training, diffusion-based noise suppression, vision-language pre-training, learned model ensembling, and hierarchical feature enhancement. Extensive experimental analyses along with insightful observations are drawn to better understand the rationale behind each design. We hope this challenge could lay a solid foundation for future research on robust and reliable depth estimation and beyond. The datasets, competition toolkit, workshop recordings, and source code from the winning teams are publicly available on the challenge website.

Self-supervised learning methods overcome the key bottleneck for building more capable AI: limited availability of labeled data. However, one of the drawbacks of self-supervised architectures is that the representations that they learn are implicit and it is hard to extract meaningful information about the encoded world states, such as 3D structure of the visual scene encoded in a depth map. Moreover, in the visual domain such representations only rarely undergo evaluations that may be critical for downstream tasks, such as vision for autonomous cars. Herein, we propose a framework for evaluating visual representations for illumination invariance in the context of depth perception. We develop a new predictive coding-based architecture and a hybrid fully-supervised/self-supervised learning method. We propose a novel architecture that extends the predictive coding approach: PRedictive Lateral bottom-Up and top-Down Encoder-decoder Network (PreludeNet), which explicitly learns to infer and predict depth from video frames. In PreludeNet, the encoder's stack of predictive coding layers is trained in a self-supervised manner, while the predictive decoder is trained in a supervised manner to infer or predict the depth. We evaluate the robustness of our model on a new synthetic dataset, in which lighting conditions (such as overall illumination, and effect of shadows) can be be parametrically adjusted while keeping all other aspects of the world constant. PreludeNet achieves both competitive depth inference performance and next frame prediction accuracy. We also show how this new network architecture, coupled with the hybrid fully-supervised/self-supervised learning method, achieves balance between the said performance and invariance to changes in lighting. The proposed framework for evaluating visual representations can be extended to diverse task domains and invariance tests.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

Transformer-based models have delivered impressive results on many tasks, particularly vision and language tasks. In many model training situations, conventional configurations are typically adopted. For example, we often set the base model with hidden dimensions (i.e. model width) to be 768 and the number of transformer layers (i.e. model depth) to be 12. In this paper, we revisit these conventional configurations. Through theoretical analysis and experimental evaluation, we show that the masked autoencoder is effective in alleviating the over-smoothing issue in deep transformer training. Based on this finding, we propose Bamboo, an idea of using deeper and narrower transformer configurations, for masked autoencoder training. On ImageNet, with such a simple change in configuration, re-designed model achieves 87.1% top-1 accuracy and outperforms SoTA models like MAE and BEiT. On language tasks, re-designed model outperforms BERT with default setting by 1.1 points on average, on GLUE datasets.

For humans, language production and comprehension is sensitive to the hierarchical structure of sentences. In natural language processing, past work has questioned how effectively neural sequence models like transformers capture this hierarchical structure when generalizing to structurally novel inputs. We show that transformer language models can learn to generalize hierarchically after training for extremely long periods -- far beyond the point when in-domain accuracy has saturated. We call this phenomenon structural grokking. On multiple datasets, structural grokking exhibits inverted U-shaped scaling in model depth: intermediate-depth models generalize better than both very deep and very shallow transformers. When analyzing the relationship between model-internal properties and grokking, we find that optimal depth for grokking can be identified using the tree-structuredness metric of murty2023projections. Overall, our work provides strong evidence that, with extended training, vanilla transformers discover and use hierarchical structure.

In this work we investigate the effect of the convolutional network depth on its accuracy in the large-scale image recognition setting. Our main contribution is a thorough evaluation of networks of increasing depth using an architecture with very small (3x3) convolution filters, which shows that a significant improvement on the prior-art configurations can be achieved by pushing the depth to 16-19 weight layers. These findings were the basis of our ImageNet Challenge 2014 submission, where our team secured the first and the second places in the localisation and classification tracks respectively. We also show that our representations generalise well to other datasets, where they achieve state-of-the-art results. We have made our two best-performing ConvNet models publicly available to facilitate further research on the use of deep visual representations in computer vision.

Neural sequence models, especially transformers, exhibit a remarkable capacity for in-context learning. They can construct new predictors from sequences of labeled examples (x, f(x)) presented in the input without further parameter updates. We investigate the hypothesis that transformer-based in-context learners implement standard learning algorithms implicitly, by encoding smaller models in their activations, and updating these implicit models as new examples appear in the context. Using linear regression as a prototypical problem, we offer three sources of evidence for this hypothesis. First, we prove by construction that transformers can implement learning algorithms for linear models based on gradient descent and closed-form ridge regression. Second, we show that trained in-context learners closely match the predictors computed by gradient descent, ridge regression, and exact least-squares regression, transitioning between different predictors as transformer depth and dataset noise vary, and converging to Bayesian estimators for large widths and depths. Third, we present preliminary evidence that in-context learners share algorithmic features with these predictors: learners' late layers non-linearly encode weight vectors and moment matrices. These results suggest that in-context learning is understandable in algorithmic terms, and that (at least in the linear case) learners may rediscover standard estimation algorithms. Code and reference implementations are released at https://github.com/ekinakyurek/google-research/blob/master/incontext.

In this paper, we introduce PredBench, a benchmark tailored for the holistic evaluation of spatio-temporal prediction networks. Despite significant progress in this field, there remains a lack of a standardized framework for a detailed and comparative analysis of various prediction network architectures. PredBench addresses this gap by conducting large-scale experiments, upholding standardized and appropriate experimental settings, and implementing multi-dimensional evaluations. This benchmark integrates 12 widely adopted methods with 15 diverse datasets across multiple application domains, offering extensive evaluation of contemporary spatio-temporal prediction networks. Through meticulous calibration of prediction settings across various applications, PredBench ensures evaluations relevant to their intended use and enables fair comparisons. Moreover, its multi-dimensional evaluation framework broadens the analysis with a comprehensive set of metrics, providing deep insights into the capabilities of models. The findings from our research offer strategic directions for future developments in the field. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/PredBench.

This paper shows that the autoregressive model is an effective and scalable monocular depth estimator. Our idea is simple: We tackle the monocular depth estimation (MDE) task with an autoregressive prediction paradigm, based on two core designs. First, our depth autoregressive model (DAR) treats the depth map of different resolutions as a set of tokens, and conducts the low-to-high resolution autoregressive objective with a patch-wise casual mask. Second, our DAR recursively discretizes the entire depth range into more compact intervals, and attains the coarse-to-fine granularity autoregressive objective in an ordinal-regression manner. By coupling these two autoregressive objectives, our DAR establishes new state-of-the-art (SOTA) on KITTI and NYU Depth v2 by clear margins. Further, our scalable approach allows us to scale the model up to 2.0B and achieve the best RMSE of 1.799 on the KITTI dataset (5% improvement) compared to 1.896 by the current SOTA (Depth Anything). DAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability on unseen datasets. These results suggest that DAR yields superior performance with an autoregressive prediction paradigm, providing a promising approach to equip modern autoregressive large models (e.g., GPT-4o) with depth estimation capabilities.

We introduce EarthPT -- an Earth Observation (EO) pretrained transformer. EarthPT is a 700 million parameter decoding transformer foundation model trained in an autoregressive self-supervised manner and developed specifically with EO use-cases in mind. We demonstrate that EarthPT is an effective forecaster that can accurately predict future pixel-level surface reflectances across the 400-2300 nm range well into the future. For example, forecasts of the evolution of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have a typical error of approximately 0.05 (over a natural range of -1 -> 1) at the pixel level over a five month test set horizon, out-performing simple phase-folded models based on historical averaging. We also demonstrate that embeddings learnt by EarthPT hold semantically meaningful information and could be exploited for downstream tasks such as highly granular, dynamic land use classification. Excitingly, we note that the abundance of EO data provides us with -- in theory -- quadrillions of training tokens. Therefore, if we assume that EarthPT follows neural scaling laws akin to those derived for Large Language Models (LLMs), there is currently no data-imposed limit to scaling EarthPT and other similar `Large Observation Models.'

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

While state-of-the-art monocular depth estimation approaches achieve impressive results in ideal settings, they are highly unreliable under challenging illumination and weather conditions, such as at nighttime or in the presence of rain. In this paper, we uncover these safety-critical issues and tackle them with md4all: a simple and effective solution that works reliably under both adverse and ideal conditions, as well as for different types of learning supervision. We achieve this by exploiting the efficacy of existing methods under perfect settings. Therefore, we provide valid training signals independently of what is in the input. First, we generate a set of complex samples corresponding to the normal training ones. Then, we train the model by guiding its self- or full-supervision by feeding the generated samples and computing the standard losses on the corresponding original images. Doing so enables a single model to recover information across diverse conditions without modifications at inference time. Extensive experiments on two challenging public datasets, namely nuScenes and Oxford RobotCar, demonstrate the effectiveness of our techniques, outperforming prior works by a large margin in both standard and challenging conditions. Source code and data are available at: https://md4all.github.io.

RGB video object tracking is a fundamental task in computer vision. Its effectiveness can be improved using depth information, particularly for handling motion-blurred target. However, depth information is often missing in commonly used tracking benchmarks. In this work, we propose a new framework that leverages monocular depth estimation to counter the challenges of tracking targets that are out of view or affected by motion blur in RGB video sequences. Specifically, our work introduces following contributions. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to propose a depth attention mechanism and to formulate a simple framework that allows seamlessly integration of depth information with state of the art tracking algorithms, without RGB-D cameras, elevating accuracy and robustness. We provide extensive experiments on six challenging tracking benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that our approach provides consistent gains over several strong baselines and achieves new SOTA performance. We believe that our method will open up new possibilities for more sophisticated VOT solutions in real-world scenarios. Our code and models are publicly released: https://github.com/LiuYuML/Depth-Attention.

This work presents Depth Anything, a highly practical solution for robust monocular depth estimation. Without pursuing novel technical modules, we aim to build a simple yet powerful foundation model dealing with any images under any circumstances. To this end, we scale up the dataset by designing a data engine to collect and automatically annotate large-scale unlabeled data (~62M), which significantly enlarges the data coverage and thus is able to reduce the generalization error. We investigate two simple yet effective strategies that make data scaling-up promising. First, a more challenging optimization target is created by leveraging data augmentation tools. It compels the model to actively seek extra visual knowledge and acquire robust representations. Second, an auxiliary supervision is developed to enforce the model to inherit rich semantic priors from pre-trained encoders. We evaluate its zero-shot capabilities extensively, including six public datasets and randomly captured photos. It demonstrates impressive generalization ability. Further, through fine-tuning it with metric depth information from NYUv2 and KITTI, new SOTAs are set. Our better depth model also results in a better depth-conditioned ControlNet. Our models are released at https://github.com/LiheYoung/Depth-Anything.

Multi-task approaches to joint depth and segmentation prediction are well-studied for monocular images. Yet, predictions from a single-view are inherently limited, while multiple views are available in many robotics applications. On the other end of the spectrum, video-based and full 3D methods require numerous frames to perform reconstruction and segmentation. With this work we propose a Multi-View Stereo (MVS) technique for depth prediction that benefits from rich semantic features of the Segment Anything Model (SAM). This enhanced depth prediction, in turn, serves as a prompt to our Transformer-based semantic segmentation decoder. We report the mutual benefit that both tasks enjoy in our quantitative and qualitative studies on the ScanNet dataset. Our approach consistently outperforms single-task MVS and segmentation models, along with multi-task monocular methods.

The oceans are a source of an impressive mixture of complex data that could be used to uncover relationships yet to be discovered. Such data comes from the oceans and their surface, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages used for tracking vessels' trajectories. AIS messages are transmitted over radio or satellite at ideally periodic time intervals but vary irregularly over time. As such, this paper aims to model the AIS message transmission behavior through neural networks for forecasting upcoming AIS messages' content from multiple vessels, particularly in a simultaneous approach despite messages' temporal irregularities as outliers. We present a set of experiments comprising multiple algorithms for forecasting tasks with horizon sizes of varying lengths. Deep learning models (e.g., neural networks) revealed themselves to adequately preserve vessels' spatial awareness regardless of temporal irregularity. We show how convolutional layers, feed-forward networks, and recurrent neural networks can improve such tasks by working together. Experimenting with short, medium, and large-sized sequences of messages, our model achieved 36/37/38% of the Relative Percentage Difference - the lower, the better, whereas we observed 92/45/96% on the Elman's RNN, 51/52/40% on the GRU, and 129/98/61% on the LSTM. These results support our model as a driver for improving the prediction of vessel routes when analyzing multiple vessels of diverging types simultaneously under temporally noise data.

We propose SharpDepth, a novel approach to monocular metric depth estimation that combines the metric accuracy of discriminative depth estimation methods (e.g., Metric3D, UniDepth) with the fine-grained boundary sharpness typically achieved by generative methods (e.g., Marigold, Lotus). Traditional discriminative models trained on real-world data with sparse ground-truth depth can accurately predict metric depth but often produce over-smoothed or low-detail depth maps. Generative models, in contrast, are trained on synthetic data with dense ground truth, generating depth maps with sharp boundaries yet only providing relative depth with low accuracy. Our approach bridges these limitations by integrating metric accuracy with detailed boundary preservation, resulting in depth predictions that are both metrically precise and visually sharp. Our extensive zero-shot evaluations on standard depth estimation benchmarks confirm SharpDepth effectiveness, showing its ability to achieve both high depth accuracy and detailed representation, making it well-suited for applications requiring high-quality depth perception across diverse, real-world environments.

Monocular 3D object detection has long been a challenging task in autonomous driving. Most existing methods follow conventional 2D detectors to first localize object centers, and then predict 3D attributes by neighboring features. However, only using local visual features is insufficient to understand the scene-level 3D spatial structures and ignores the long-range inter-object depth relations. In this paper, we introduce the first DETR framework for Monocular DEtection with a depth-guided TRansformer, named MonoDETR. We modify the vanilla transformer to be depth-aware and guide the whole detection process by contextual depth cues. Specifically, concurrent to the visual encoder that captures object appearances, we introduce to predict a foreground depth map, and specialize a depth encoder to extract non-local depth embeddings. Then, we formulate 3D object candidates as learnable queries and propose a depth-guided decoder to conduct object-scene depth interactions. In this way, each object query estimates its 3D attributes adaptively from the depth-guided regions on the image and is no longer constrained to local visual features. On KITTI benchmark with monocular images as input, MonoDETR achieves state-of-the-art performance and requires no extra dense depth annotations. Besides, our depth-guided modules can also be plug-and-play to enhance multi-view 3D object detectors on nuScenes dataset, demonstrating our superior generalization capacity. Code is available at https://github.com/ZrrSkywalker/MonoDETR.

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

Humans have rich understanding of liquid containers and their contents; for example, we can effortlessly pour water from a pitcher to a cup. Doing so requires estimating the volume of the cup, approximating the amount of water in the pitcher, and predicting the behavior of water when we tilt the pitcher. Very little attention in computer vision has been made to liquids and their containers. In this paper, we study liquid containers and their contents, and propose methods to estimate the volume of containers, approximate the amount of liquid in them, and perform comparative volume estimations all from a single RGB image. Furthermore, we show the results of the proposed model for predicting the behavior of liquids inside containers when one tilts the containers. We also introduce a new dataset of Containers Of liQuid contEnt (COQE) that contains more than 5,000 images of 10,000 liquid containers in context labelled with volume, amount of content, bounding box annotation, and corresponding similar 3D CAD models.

Very deep convolutional networks with hundreds of layers have led to significant reductions in error on competitive benchmarks. Although the unmatched expressiveness of the many layers can be highly desirable at test time, training very deep networks comes with its own set of challenges. The gradients can vanish, the forward flow often diminishes, and the training time can be painfully slow. To address these problems, we propose stochastic depth, a training procedure that enables the seemingly contradictory setup to train short networks and use deep networks at test time. We start with very deep networks but during training, for each mini-batch, randomly drop a subset of layers and bypass them with the identity function. This simple approach complements the recent success of residual networks. It reduces training time substantially and improves the test error significantly on almost all data sets that we used for evaluation. With stochastic depth we can increase the depth of residual networks even beyond 1200 layers and still yield meaningful improvements in test error (4.91% on CIFAR-10).

Mobile robots require accurate and robust depth measurements to understand and interact with the environment. While existing sensing modalities address this problem to some extent, recent research on monocular depth estimation has leveraged the information richness, yet low cost and simplicity of monocular cameras. These works have shown significant generalization capabilities, mainly in automotive and indoor settings. However, robots often operate in environments with limited scale cues, self-similar appearances, and low texture. In this work, we encode measurements from a low-cost mmWave radar into the input space of a state-of-the-art monocular depth estimation model. Despite the radar's extreme point cloud sparsity, our method demonstrates generalization and robustness across industrial and outdoor experiments. Our approach reduces the absolute relative error of depth predictions by 9-64% across a range of unseen, real-world validation datasets. Importantly, we maintain consistency of all performance metrics across all experiments and scene depths where current vision-only approaches fail. We further address the present deficit of training data in mobile robotics environments by introducing a novel methodology for synthesizing rendered, realistic learning datasets based on photogrammetric data that simulate the radar sensor observations for training. Our code, datasets, and pre-trained networks are made available at https://github.com/ethz-asl/radarmeetsvision.

The popularity of transformer-based text embeddings calls for better statistical tools for measuring distributions of such embeddings. One such tool would be a method for ranking texts within a corpus by centrality, i.e. assigning each text a number signifying how representative that text is of the corpus as a whole. However, an intrinsic center-outward ordering of high-dimensional text representations is not trivial. A statistical depth is a function for ranking k-dimensional objects by measuring centrality with respect to some observed k-dimensional distribution. We adopt a statistical depth to measure distributions of transformer-based text embeddings, transformer-based text embedding (TTE) depth, and introduce the practical use of this depth for both modeling and distributional inference in NLP pipelines. We first define TTE depth and an associated rank sum test for determining whether two corpora differ significantly in embedding space. We then use TTE depth for the task of in-context learning prompt selection, showing that this approach reliably improves performance over statistical baseline approaches across six text classification tasks. Finally, we use TTE depth and the associated rank sum test to characterize the distributions of synthesized and human-generated corpora, showing that five recent synthetic data augmentation processes cause a measurable distributional shift away from associated human-generated text.

We address the challenge of efficient auto-regressive generation in sequence prediction models by introducing FutureFill - a method for fast generation that applies to any sequence prediction algorithm based on convolutional operators. Our approach reduces the generation time requirement from quadratic to quasilinear relative to the context length. Additionally, FutureFill requires a prefill cache sized only by the number of tokens generated, which is smaller than the cache requirements for standard convolutional and attention-based models. We validate our theoretical findings with experimental evidence demonstrating correctness and efficiency gains in a synthetic generation task.

Prediction is an appealing objective for self-supervised learning of behavioral skills, particularly for autonomous robots. However, effectively utilizing predictive models for control, especially with raw image inputs, poses a number of major challenges. How should the predictions be used? What happens when they are inaccurate? In this paper, we tackle these questions by proposing a method for learning robotic skills from raw image observations, using only autonomously collected experience. We show that even an imperfect model can complete complex tasks if it can continuously retry, but this requires the model to not lose track of the objective (e.g., the object of interest). To enable a robot to continuously retry a task, we devise a self-supervised algorithm for learning image registration, which can keep track of objects of interest for the duration of the trial. We demonstrate that this idea can be combined with a video-prediction based controller to enable complex behaviors to be learned from scratch using only raw visual inputs, including grasping, repositioning objects, and non-prehensile manipulation. Our real-world experiments demonstrate that a model trained with 160 robot hours of autonomously collected, unlabeled data is able to successfully perform complex manipulation tasks with a wide range of objects not seen during training.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

This paper tackles the problem of depth estimation from a single image. Existing work either focuses on generalization performance disregarding metric scale, i.e. relative depth estimation, or state-of-the-art results on specific datasets, i.e. metric depth estimation. We propose the first approach that combines both worlds, leading to a model with excellent generalization performance while maintaining metric scale. Our flagship model, ZoeD-M12-NK, is pre-trained on 12 datasets using relative depth and fine-tuned on two datasets using metric depth. We use a lightweight head with a novel bin adjustment design called metric bins module for each domain. During inference, each input image is automatically routed to the appropriate head using a latent classifier. Our framework admits multiple configurations depending on the datasets used for relative depth pre-training and metric fine-tuning. Without pre-training, we can already significantly improve the state of the art (SOTA) on the NYU Depth v2 indoor dataset. Pre-training on twelve datasets and fine-tuning on the NYU Depth v2 indoor dataset, we can further improve SOTA for a total of 21% in terms of relative absolute error (REL). Finally, ZoeD-M12-NK is the first model that can jointly train on multiple datasets (NYU Depth v2 and KITTI) without a significant drop in performance and achieve unprecedented zero-shot generalization performance to eight unseen datasets from both indoor and outdoor domains. The code and pre-trained models are publicly available at https://github.com/isl-org/ZoeDepth .

While neural networks are used for classification tasks across domains, a long-standing open problem in machine learning is determining whether neural networks trained using standard procedures are optimal for classification, i.e., whether such models minimize the probability of misclassification for arbitrary data distributions. In this work, we identify and construct an explicit set of neural network classifiers that achieve optimality. Since effective neural networks in practice are typically both wide and deep, we analyze infinitely wide networks that are also infinitely deep. In particular, using the recent connection between infinitely wide neural networks and Neural Tangent Kernels, we provide explicit activation functions that can be used to construct networks that achieve optimality. Interestingly, these activation functions are simple and easy to implement, yet differ from commonly used activations such as ReLU or sigmoid. More generally, we create a taxonomy of infinitely wide and deep networks and show that these models implement one of three well-known classifiers depending on the activation function used: (1) 1-nearest neighbor (model predictions are given by the label of the nearest training example); (2) majority vote (model predictions are given by the label of the class with greatest representation in the training set); or (3) singular kernel classifiers (a set of classifiers containing those that achieve optimality). Our results highlight the benefit of using deep networks for classification tasks, in contrast to regression tasks, where excessive depth is harmful.

In this paper, we introduce the Curse of Depth, a concept that highlights, explains, and addresses the recent observation in modern Large Language Models(LLMs) where nearly half of the layers are less effective than expected. We first confirm the wide existence of this phenomenon across the most popular families of LLMs such as Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, and Qwen. Our analysis, theoretically and empirically, identifies that the underlying reason for the ineffectiveness of deep layers in LLMs is the widespread usage of Pre-Layer Normalization (Pre-LN). While Pre-LN stabilizes the training of Transformer LLMs, its output variance exponentially grows with the model depth, which undesirably causes the derivative of the deep Transformer blocks to be an identity matrix, and therefore barely contributes to the training. To resolve this training pitfall, we propose LayerNorm Scaling, which scales the variance of output of the layer normalization inversely by the square root of its depth. This simple modification mitigates the output variance explosion of deeper Transformer layers, improving their contribution. Our experimental results, spanning model sizes from 130M to 1B, demonstrate that LayerNorm Scaling significantly enhances LLM pre-training performance compared to Pre-LN. Moreover, this improvement seamlessly carries over to supervised fine-tuning. All these gains can be attributed to the fact that LayerNorm Scaling enables deeper layers to contribute more effectively during training.

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

Despite their remarkable success in language modeling, transformers trained to predict the next token in a sequence struggle with long-term planning. This limitation is particularly evident in tasks requiring foresight to plan multiple steps ahead such as maze navigation. The standard next single token prediction objective, however, offers no explicit mechanism to predict multiple steps ahead - or revisit the path taken so far. Consequently, in this work we study whether explicitly predicting multiple steps ahead (and backwards) can improve transformers' maze navigation. We train parameter-matched transformers from scratch, under identical settings, to navigate mazes of varying types and sizes with standard next token prediction and MLM-U, an objective explicitly predicting multiple steps ahead and backwards. We find that MLM-U considerably improves transformers' ability to navigate mazes compared to standard next token prediction across maze types and complexities. We also find MLM-U training is 4x more sample efficient and converges 2x faster in terms of GPU training hours relative to next token training. Finally, for more complex mazes we find MLM-U benefits from scaling to larger transformers. Remarkably, we find transformers trained with MLM-U outperform larger transformers trained with next token prediction using additional supervision from A* search traces. We hope these findings underscore the promise of learning objectives to advance transformers' capacity for long-term planning.

Complex prediction models such as deep learning are the output from fitting machine learning, neural networks, or AI models to a set of training data. These are now standard tools in science. A key challenge with the current generation of models is that they are highly parameterized, which makes describing and interpreting the prediction strategies difficult. We use topological data analysis to transform these complex prediction models into pictures representing a topological view. The result is a map of the predictions that enables inspection. The methods scale up to large datasets across different domains and enable us to detect labeling errors in training data, understand generalization in image classification, and inspect predictions of likely pathogenic mutations in the BRCA1 gene.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Recently pre-trained language representation models such as BERT have shown great success when fine-tuned on downstream tasks including information retrieval (IR). However, pre-training objectives tailored for ad-hoc retrieval have not been well explored. In this paper, we propose Pre-training with Representative wOrds Prediction (PROP) for ad-hoc retrieval. PROP is inspired by the classical statistical language model for IR, specifically the query likelihood model, which assumes that the query is generated as the piece of text representative of the "ideal" document. Based on this idea, we construct the representative words prediction (ROP) task for pre-training. Given an input document, we sample a pair of word sets according to the document language model, where the set with higher likelihood is deemed as more representative of the document. We then pre-train the Transformer model to predict the pairwise preference between the two word sets, jointly with the Masked Language Model (MLM) objective. By further fine-tuning on a variety of representative downstream ad-hoc retrieval tasks, PROP achieves significant improvements over baselines without pre-training or with other pre-training methods. We also show that PROP can achieve exciting performance under both the zero- and low-resource IR settings. The code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/Albert-Ma/PROP.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

Motion forecasting transforms sequences of past movements and environment context into future motion. Recent methods rely on learned representations, resulting in hidden states that are difficult to interpret. In this work, we use natural language to quantize motion features in a human-interpretable way, and measure the degree to which they are embedded in hidden states. Our experiments reveal that hidden states of motion sequences are arranged with respect to our discrete sets of motion features. Following these insights, we fit control vectors to motion features, which allow for controlling motion forecasts at inference. Consequently, our method enables controlling transformer-based motion forecasting models with textual inputs, providing a unique interface to interact with and understand these models. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/kit-mrt/future-motion

We focus on the problem of species distribution modeling using global-scale presence-only data. Most previous studies have mapped the range of a given species using geographical and environmental features alone. To capture a stronger implicit relationship between species, we encode the taxonomic hierarchy of species using a large language model. This enables range mapping for any taxonomic rank and unseen species without additional supervision. Further, we propose a novel proximity-aware evaluation metric that enables evaluating species distribution models using any pixel-level representation of ground-truth species range map. The proposed metric penalizes the predictions of a model based on its proximity to the ground truth. We describe the effectiveness of our model by systematically evaluating on the task of species range prediction, zero-shot prediction and geo-feature regression against the state-of-the-art. Results show our model outperforms the strong baselines when trained with a variety of multi-label learning losses.

Depth sensing is an important problem for 3D vision-based robotics. Yet, a real-world active stereo or ToF depth camera often produces noisy and incomplete depth which bottlenecks robot performances. In this work, we propose D3RoMa, a learning-based depth estimation framework on stereo image pairs that predicts clean and accurate depth in diverse indoor scenes, even in the most challenging scenarios with translucent or specular surfaces where classical depth sensing completely fails. Key to our method is that we unify depth estimation and restoration into an image-to-image translation problem by predicting the disparity map with a denoising diffusion probabilistic model. At inference time, we further incorporated a left-right consistency constraint as classifier guidance to the diffusion process. Our framework combines recently advanced learning-based approaches and geometric constraints from traditional stereo vision. For model training, we create a large scene-level synthetic dataset with diverse transparent and specular objects to compensate for existing tabletop datasets. The trained model can be directly applied to real-world in-the-wild scenes and achieve state-of-the-art performance in multiple public depth estimation benchmarks. Further experiments in real environments show that accurate depth prediction significantly improves robotic manipulation in various scenarios.

Procedural video representation learning is an active research area where the objective is to learn an agent which can anticipate and forecast the future given the present video input, typically in conjunction with textual annotations. Prior works often rely on large-scale pretraining of visual encoders and prediction models with language supervision. However, the necessity and effectiveness of extending compute intensive pretraining to learn video clip sequences with noisy text supervision have not yet been fully validated by previous works. In this work, we show that a strong off-the-shelf frozen pretrained visual encoder, along with a well designed prediction model, can achieve state-of-the-art (SoTA) performance in forecasting and procedural planning without the need for pretraining the prediction model, nor requiring additional supervision from language or ASR. Instead of learning representations from pixel space, our method utilizes the latent embedding space of publicly available vision encoders. By conditioning on frozen clip-level embeddings from observed steps to predict the actions of unseen steps, our prediction model is able to learn robust representations for forecasting through iterative denoising - leveraging the recent advances in diffusion transformers (Peebles & Xie, 2023). Empirical studies over a total of five procedural learning tasks across four datasets (NIV, CrossTask, COIN and Ego4D-v2) show that our model advances the strong baselines in long-horizon action anticipation (+2.6% in Verb ED@20, +3.1% in Noun ED@20), and significantly improves the SoTA in step forecasting (+5.0%), task classification (+3.8%), and procedure planning tasks (up to +2.28% in success rate, +3.39% in mAcc, and +0.90% in mIoU).

This paper presents a new sequence-to-sequence pre-training model called ProphetNet, which introduces a novel self-supervised objective named future n-gram prediction and the proposed n-stream self-attention mechanism. Instead of optimizing one-step-ahead prediction in the traditional sequence-to-sequence model, the ProphetNet is optimized by n-step ahead prediction that predicts the next n tokens simultaneously based on previous context tokens at each time step. The future n-gram prediction explicitly encourages the model to plan for the future tokens and prevent overfitting on strong local correlations. We pre-train ProphetNet using a base scale dataset (16GB) and a large-scale dataset (160GB), respectively. Then we conduct experiments on CNN/DailyMail, Gigaword, and SQuAD 1.1 benchmarks for abstractive summarization and question generation tasks. Experimental results show that ProphetNet achieves new state-of-the-art results on all these datasets compared to the models using the same scale pre-training corpus.

We present a comprehensive study of deep bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) based acoustic models for automatic speech recognition (ASR). We study the effect of size and depth and train models of up to 8 layers. We investigate the training aspect and study different variants of optimization methods, batching, truncated backpropagation, different regularization techniques such as dropout and L_2 regularization, and different gradient clipping variants. The major part of the experimental analysis was performed on the Quaero corpus. Additional experiments also were performed on the Switchboard corpus. Our best LSTM model has a relative improvement in word error rate of over 14\% compared to our best feed-forward neural network (FFNN) baseline on the Quaero task. On this task, we get our best result with an 8 layer bidirectional LSTM and we show that a pretraining scheme with layer-wise construction helps for deep LSTMs. Finally we compare the training calculation time of many of the presented experiments in relation with recognition performance. All the experiments were done with RETURNN, the RWTH extensible training framework for universal recurrent neural networks in combination with RASR, the RWTH ASR toolkit.

While supervised learning has enabled great progress in many applications, unsupervised learning has not seen such widespread adoption, and remains an important and challenging endeavor for artificial intelligence. In this work, we propose a universal unsupervised learning approach to extract useful representations from high-dimensional data, which we call Contrastive Predictive Coding. The key insight of our model is to learn such representations by predicting the future in latent space by using powerful autoregressive models. We use a probabilistic contrastive loss which induces the latent space to capture information that is maximally useful to predict future samples. It also makes the model tractable by using negative sampling. While most prior work has focused on evaluating representations for a particular modality, we demonstrate that our approach is able to learn useful representations achieving strong performance on four distinct domains: speech, images, text and reinforcement learning in 3D environments.

We present IterMVS, a new data-driven method for high-resolution multi-view stereo. We propose a novel GRU-based estimator that encodes pixel-wise probability distributions of depth in its hidden state. Ingesting multi-scale matching information, our model refines these distributions over multiple iterations and infers depth and confidence. To extract the depth maps, we combine traditional classification and regression in a novel manner. We verify the efficiency and effectiveness of our method on DTU, Tanks&Temples and ETH3D. While being the most efficient method in both memory and run-time, our model achieves competitive performance on DTU and better generalization ability on Tanks&Temples as well as ETH3D than most state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at https://github.com/FangjinhuaWang/IterMVS.

Advances in underwater imaging enable the collection of extensive seafloor image datasets that are necessary for monitoring important benthic ecosystems. The ability to collect seafloor imagery has outpaced our capacity to analyze it, hindering expedient mobilization of this crucial environmental information. Recent machine learning approaches provide opportunities to increase the efficiency with which seafloor image datasets are analyzed, yet large and consistent datasets necessary to support development of such approaches are scarce. Here we present BenthicNet: a global compilation of seafloor imagery designed to support the training and evaluation of large-scale image recognition models. An initial set of over 11.4 million images was collected and curated to represent a diversity of seafloor environments using a representative subset of 1.3 million images. These are accompanied by 2.6 million annotations translated to the CATAMI scheme, which span 190,000 of the images. A large deep learning model was trained on this compilation and preliminary results suggest it has utility for automating large and small-scale image analysis tasks. The compilation and model are made openly available for use by the scientific community at https://doi.org/10.20383/103.0614.

We focus on solving the univariate times series point forecasting problem using deep learning. We propose a deep neural architecture based on backward and forward residual links and a very deep stack of fully-connected layers. The architecture has a number of desirable properties, being interpretable, applicable without modification to a wide array of target domains, and fast to train. We test the proposed architecture on several well-known datasets, including M3, M4 and TOURISM competition datasets containing time series from diverse domains. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for two configurations of N-BEATS for all the datasets, improving forecast accuracy by 11% over a statistical benchmark and by 3% over last year's winner of the M4 competition, a domain-adjusted hand-crafted hybrid between neural network and statistical time series models. The first configuration of our model does not employ any time-series-specific components and its performance on heterogeneous datasets strongly suggests that, contrarily to received wisdom, deep learning primitives such as residual blocks are by themselves sufficient to solve a wide range of forecasting problems. Finally, we demonstrate how the proposed architecture can be augmented to provide outputs that are interpretable without considerable loss in accuracy.

It has long been established that predictive models can be transformed into lossless compressors and vice versa. Incidentally, in recent years, the machine learning community has focused on training increasingly large and powerful self-supervised (language) models. Since these large language models exhibit impressive predictive capabilities, they are well-positioned to be strong compressors. In this work, we advocate for viewing the prediction problem through the lens of compression and evaluate the compression capabilities of large (foundation) models. We show that large language models are powerful general-purpose predictors and that the compression viewpoint provides novel insights into scaling laws, tokenization, and in-context learning. For example, Chinchilla 70B, while trained primarily on text, compresses ImageNet patches to 43.4% and LibriSpeech samples to 16.4% of their raw size, beating domain-specific compressors like PNG (58.5%) or FLAC (30.3%), respectively. Finally, we show that the prediction-compression equivalence allows us to use any compressor (like gzip) to build a conditional generative model.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

This review gives an overview of the development of machine learning in geoscience. A thorough analysis of the co-developments of machine learning applications throughout the last 70 years relates the recent enthusiasm for machine learning to developments in geoscience. I explore the shift of kriging towards a mainstream machine learning method and the historic application of neural networks in geoscience, following the general trend of machine learning enthusiasm through the decades. Furthermore, this chapter explores the shift from mathematical fundamentals and knowledge in software development towards skills in model validation, applied statistics, and integrated subject matter expertise. The review is interspersed with code examples to complement the theoretical foundations and illustrate model validation and machine learning explainability for science. The scope of this review includes various shallow machine learning methods, e.g. Decision Trees, Random Forests, Support-Vector Machines, and Gaussian Processes, as well as, deep neural networks, including feed-forward neural networks, convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks and generative adversarial networks. Regarding geoscience, the review has a bias towards geophysics but aims to strike a balance with geochemistry, geostatistics, and geology, however excludes remote sensing, as this would exceed the scope. In general, I aim to provide context for the recent enthusiasm surrounding deep learning with respect to research, hardware, and software developments that enable successful application of shallow and deep machine learning in all disciplines of Earth science.

Attention-based mechanisms are widely used in machine learning, most prominently in transformers. However, hyperparameters such as the rank of the attention matrices and the number of heads are scaled nearly the same way in all realizations of this architecture, without theoretical justification. In this work we show that there are dramatic trade-offs between the rank and number of heads of the attention mechanism. Specifically, we present a simple and natural target function that can be represented using a single full-rank attention head for any context length, but that cannot be approximated by low-rank attention unless the number of heads is exponential in the embedding dimension, even for short context lengths. Moreover, we prove that, for short context lengths, adding depth allows the target to be approximated by low-rank attention. For long contexts, we conjecture that full-rank attention is necessary. Finally, we present experiments with off-the-shelf transformers that validate our theoretical findings.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

By classifying infinite-width neural networks and identifying the *optimal* limit, Tensor Programs IV and V demonstrated a universal way, called muP, for *widthwise hyperparameter transfer*, i.e., predicting optimal hyperparameters of wide neural networks from narrow ones. Here we investigate the analogous classification for *depthwise parametrizations* of deep residual networks (resnets). We classify depthwise parametrizations of block multiplier and learning rate by their infinite-width-then-depth limits. In resnets where each block has only one layer, we identify a unique optimal parametrization, called Depth-muP that extends muP and show empirically it admits depthwise hyperparameter transfer. We identify *feature diversity* as a crucial factor in deep networks, and Depth-muP can be characterized as maximizing both feature learning and feature diversity. Exploiting this, we find that absolute value, among all homogeneous nonlinearities, maximizes feature diversity and indeed empirically leads to significantly better performance. However, if each block is deeper (such as modern transformers), then we find fundamental limitations in all possible infinite-depth limits of such parametrizations, which we illustrate both theoretically and empirically on simple networks as well as Megatron transformer trained on Common Crawl.

Efficient ObjectGoal navigation (ObjectNav) in novel environments requires an understanding of the spatial and semantic regularities in environment layouts. In this work, we present a straightforward method for learning these regularities by predicting the locations of unobserved objects from incomplete semantic maps. Our method differs from previous prediction-based navigation methods, such as frontier potential prediction or egocentric map completion, by directly predicting unseen targets while leveraging the global context from all previously explored areas. Our prediction model is lightweight and can be trained in a supervised manner using a relatively small amount of passively collected data. Once trained, the model can be incorporated into a modular pipeline for ObjectNav without the need for any reinforcement learning. We validate the effectiveness of our method on the HM3D and MP3D ObjectNav datasets. We find that it achieves the state-of-the-art on both datasets, despite not using any additional data for training.

Monocular depth estimation is known as an ill-posed task in which objects in a 2D image usually do not contain sufficient information to predict their depth. Thus, it acts differently from other tasks (e.g., classification and segmentation) in many ways. In this paper, we find that self-supervised monocular depth estimation shows a direction sensitivity and environmental dependency in the feature representation. But the current backbones borrowed from other tasks pay less attention to handling different types of environmental information, limiting the overall depth accuracy. To bridge this gap, we propose a new Direction-aware Cumulative Convolution Network (DaCCN), which improves the depth feature representation in two aspects. First, we propose a direction-aware module, which can learn to adjust the feature extraction in each direction, facilitating the encoding of different types of information. Secondly, we design a new cumulative convolution to improve the efficiency for aggregating important environmental information. Experiments show that our method achieves significant improvements on three widely used benchmarks, KITTI, Cityscapes, and Make3D, setting a new state-of-the-art performance on the popular benchmarks with all three types of self-supervision.

The successes of modern deep machine learning methods are founded on their ability to transform inputs across multiple layers to build good high-level representations. It is therefore critical to understand this process of representation learning. However, standard theoretical approaches (formally NNGPs) involving infinite width limits eliminate representation learning. We therefore develop a new infinite width limit, the Bayesian representation learning limit, that exhibits representation learning mirroring that in finite-width models, yet at the same time, retains some of the simplicity of standard infinite-width limits. In particular, we show that Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) in the Bayesian representation learning limit have exactly multivariate Gaussian posteriors, and the posterior covariances can be obtained by optimizing an interpretable objective combining a log-likelihood to improve performance with a series of KL-divergences which keep the posteriors close to the prior. We confirm these results experimentally in wide but finite DGPs. Next, we introduce the possibility of using this limit and objective as a flexible, deep generalisation of kernel methods, that we call deep kernel machines (DKMs). Like most naive kernel methods, DKMs scale cubically in the number of datapoints. We therefore use methods from the Gaussian process inducing point literature to develop a sparse DKM that scales linearly in the number of datapoints. Finally, we extend these approaches to NNs (which have non-Gaussian posteriors) in the Appendices.

While deep reinforcement learning excels at solving tasks where large amounts of data can be collected through virtually unlimited interaction with the environment, learning from limited interaction remains a key challenge. We posit that an agent can learn more efficiently if we augment reward maximization with self-supervised objectives based on structure in its visual input and sequential interaction with the environment. Our method, Self-Predictive Representations(SPR), trains an agent to predict its own latent state representations multiple steps into the future. We compute target representations for future states using an encoder which is an exponential moving average of the agent's parameters and we make predictions using a learned transition model. On its own, this future prediction objective outperforms prior methods for sample-efficient deep RL from pixels. We further improve performance by adding data augmentation to the future prediction loss, which forces the agent's representations to be consistent across multiple views of an observation. Our full self-supervised objective, which combines future prediction and data augmentation, achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari in a setting limited to 100k steps of environment interaction, which represents a 55% relative improvement over the previous state-of-the-art. Notably, even in this limited data regime, SPR exceeds expert human scores on 7 out of 26 games. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/spr

Accurate depth information is crucial for enhancing the performance of multi-view 3D object detection. Despite the success of some existing multi-view 3D detectors utilizing pixel-wise depth supervision, they overlook two significant phenomena: 1) the depth supervision obtained from LiDAR points is usually distributed on the surface of the object, which is not so friendly to existing DETR-based 3D detectors due to the lack of the depth of 3D object center; 2) for distant objects, fine-grained depth estimation of the whole object is more challenging. Therefore, we argue that the object-wise depth (or 3D center of the object) is essential for accurate detection. In this paper, we propose a new multi-view 3D object detector named OPEN, whose main idea is to effectively inject object-wise depth information into the network through our proposed object-wise position embedding. Specifically, we first employ an object-wise depth encoder, which takes the pixel-wise depth map as a prior, to accurately estimate the object-wise depth. Then, we utilize the proposed object-wise position embedding to encode the object-wise depth information into the transformer decoder, thereby producing 3D object-aware features for final detection. Extensive experiments verify the effectiveness of our proposed method. Furthermore, OPEN achieves a new state-of-the-art performance with 64.4% NDS and 56.7% mAP on the nuScenes test benchmark.

Language model (LM) decoding is based on the next-token prediction (NTP) probability distribution. For neural LMs (e.g., Transformer-based), NTP distribution is essentially a softmax-regularized dot product between an encoded input context (query) and fixed vocabulary representations (keys). In this paper, we study the effect of the key distribution on the NTP distribution, with a focus on whether the similarity between keys will trigger spurious correlations in NTP. Through knowledge-probing tasks, we show that in the NTP distribution, the few top-ranked tokens are typically accurate. However, the middle-ranked prediction is highly biased towards the tokens that are distributionally (not necessarily semantically) similar to these top ones. For instance, if "P" is predicted as the top-1 token, "A"-"Z" will all be ranked high in NTP, no matter whether they can lead to correct decoding results. This hurts the sampling diversity and makes the sampling of correct, long-tail results hopeless and noisy. We attempt to alleviate this issue via a novel in-context method that iteratively pushes the query representation away from explored regions. Specifically, we include the explored decoding results in the context and prompt the LM to generate something else, which encourages the LM to produce a query representation that has small dot products with explored keys. Experiments on knowledge-probing tasks show that our method leads to efficient navigation away from explored keys to correct new keys. We further extend our method to open-ended and chain-of-thought (for reasoning) generation. Experiment results show that ICN contributes to better generation diversity and improved self-consistency voting performance. Finally, we discuss potential training issues caused by the fixed key space together with the challenges and possible ways to address them in future research.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Objects undergo varying amounts of perspective distortion as they move across a camera's field of view. Models for predicting 3D from a single image often work with crops around the object of interest and ignore the location of the object in the camera's field of view. We note that ignoring this location information further exaggerates the inherent ambiguity in making 3D inferences from 2D images and can prevent models from even fitting to the training data. To mitigate this ambiguity, we propose Intrinsics-Aware Positional Encoding (KPE), which incorporates information about the location of crops in the image and camera intrinsics. Experiments on three popular 3D-from-a-single-image benchmarks: depth prediction on NYU, 3D object detection on KITTI & nuScenes, and predicting 3D shapes of articulated objects on ARCTIC, show the benefits of KPE.

Transformer-based language models (LMs) create hidden representations of their inputs at every layer, but only use final-layer representations for prediction. This obscures the internal decision-making process of the model and the utility of its intermediate representations. One way to elucidate this is to cast the hidden representations as final representations, bypassing the transformer computation in-between. In this work, we suggest a simple method for such casting, by using linear transformations. We show that our approach produces more accurate approximations than the prevailing practice of inspecting hidden representations from all layers in the space of the final layer. Moreover, in the context of language modeling, our method allows "peeking" into early layer representations of GPT-2 and BERT, showing that often LMs already predict the final output in early layers. We then demonstrate the practicality of our method to recent early exit strategies, showing that when aiming, for example, at retention of 95% accuracy, our approach saves additional 7.9% layers for GPT-2 and 5.4% layers for BERT, on top of the savings of the original approach. Last, we extend our method to linearly approximate sub-modules, finding that attention is most tolerant to this change.

In most Vision-Language models (VL), the understanding of the image structure is enabled by injecting the position information (PI) about objects in the image. In our case study of LXMERT, a state-of-the-art VL model, we probe the use of the PI in the representation and study its effect on Visual Question Answering. We show that the model is not capable of leveraging the PI for the image-text matching task on a challenge set where only position differs. Yet, our experiments with probing confirm that the PI is indeed present in the representation. We introduce two strategies to tackle this: (i) Positional Information Pre-training and (ii) Contrastive Learning on PI using Cross-Modality Matching. Doing so, the model can correctly classify if images with detailed PI statements match. Additionally to the 2D information from bounding boxes, we introduce the object's depth as new feature for a better object localization in the space. Even though we were able to improve the model properties as defined by our probes, it only has a negligible effect on the downstream performance. Our results thus highlight an important issue of multimodal modeling: the mere presence of information detectable by a probing classifier is not a guarantee that the information is available in a cross-modal setup.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) exhibit an exceptional capacity for generalization in practical applications. This work aims to capture the effect and benefits of depth for supervised learning via information-theoretic generalization bounds. We first derive two hierarchical bounds on the generalization error in terms of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence or the 1-Wasserstein distance between the train and test distributions of the network internal representations. The KL divergence bound shrinks as the layer index increases, while the Wasserstein bound implies the existence of a layer that serves as a generalization funnel, which attains a minimal 1-Wasserstein distance. Analytic expressions for both bounds are derived under the setting of binary Gaussian classification with linear DNNs. To quantify the contraction of the relevant information measures when moving deeper into the network, we analyze the strong data processing inequality (SDPI) coefficient between consecutive layers of three regularized DNN models: Dropout, DropConnect, and Gaussian noise injection. This enables refining our generalization bounds to capture the contraction as a function of the network architecture parameters. Specializing our results to DNNs with a finite parameter space and the Gibbs algorithm reveals that deeper yet narrower network architectures generalize better in those examples, although how broadly this statement applies remains a question.

Estimating depth from a single image is a challenging visual task. Compared to relative depth estimation, metric depth estimation attracts more attention due to its practical physical significance and critical applications in real-life scenarios. However, existing metric depth estimation methods are typically trained on specific datasets with similar scenes, facing challenges in generalizing across scenes with significant scale variations. To address this challenge, we propose a novel monocular depth estimation method called ScaleDepth. Our method decomposes metric depth into scene scale and relative depth, and predicts them through a semantic-aware scale prediction (SASP) module and an adaptive relative depth estimation (ARDE) module, respectively. The proposed ScaleDepth enjoys several merits. First, the SASP module can implicitly combine structural and semantic features of the images to predict precise scene scales. Second, the ARDE module can adaptively estimate the relative depth distribution of each image within a normalized depth space. Third, our method achieves metric depth estimation for both indoor and outdoor scenes in a unified framework, without the need for setting the depth range or fine-tuning model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method attains state-of-the-art performance across indoor, outdoor, unconstrained, and unseen scenes. Project page: https://ruijiezhu94.github.io/ScaleDepth

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

In recent years supervised representation learning has provided state of the art or close to the state of the art results in semantic analysis tasks including ranking and information retrieval. The core idea is to learn how to embed items into a latent space such that they optimize a supervised objective in that latent space. The dimensions of the latent space have no clear semantics, and this reduces the interpretability of the system. For example, in personalization models, it is hard to explain why a particular item is ranked high for a given user profile. We propose a novel model of representation learning called Supervised Explicit Semantic Analysis (SESA) that is trained in a supervised fashion to embed items to a set of dimensions with explicit semantics. The model learns to compare two objects by representing them in this explicit space, where each dimension corresponds to a concept from a knowledge base. This work extends Explicit Semantic Analysis (ESA) with a supervised model for ranking problems. We apply this model to the task of Job-Profile relevance in LinkedIn in which a set of skills defines our explicit dimensions of the space. Every profile and job are encoded to this set of skills their similarity is calculated in this space. We use RNNs to embed text input into this space. In addition to interpretability, our model makes use of the web-scale collaborative skills data that is provided by users for each LinkedIn profile. Our model provides state of the art result while it remains interpretable.

During a geosteering operation the well path is intentionally adjusted in response to the new data acquired while drilling. To achieve consistent high-quality decisions, especially when drilling in complex environments, decision support systems can help cope with high volumes of data and interpretation complexities. They can assimilate the real-time measurements into a probabilistic earth model and use the updated model for decision recommendations. Recently, machine learning (ML) techniques have enabled a wide range of methods that redistribute computational cost from on-line to off-line calculations. In this paper, we introduce two ML techniques into the geosteering decision support framework. Firstly, a complex earth model representation is generated using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN). Secondly, a commercial extra-deep electromagnetic simulator is represented using a Forward Deep Neural Network (FDNN). The numerical experiments demonstrate that the combination of the GAN and the FDNN in an ensemble randomized maximum likelihood data assimilation scheme provides real-time estimates of complex geological uncertainty. This yields reduction of geological uncertainty ahead of the drill-bit from the measurements gathered behind and around the well bore.

In warehouse environments, robots require robust picking capabilities to manage a wide variety of objects. Effective deployment demands minimal hardware, strong generalization to new products, and resilience in diverse settings. Current methods often rely on depth sensors for structural information, which suffer from high costs, complex setups, and technical limitations. Inspired by recent advancements in computer vision, we propose an innovative approach that leverages foundation models to enhance suction grasping using only RGB images. Trained solely on a synthetic dataset, our method generalizes its grasp prediction capabilities to real-world robots and a diverse range of novel objects not included in the training set. Our network achieves an 82.3\% success rate in real-world applications. The project website with code and data will be available at http://optigrasp.github.io.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

Masked Image Modeling (MIM) has recently been established as a potent pre-training paradigm. A pretext task is constructed by masking patches in an input image, and this masked content is then predicted by a neural network using visible patches as sole input. This pre-training leads to state-of-the-art performance when finetuned for high-level semantic tasks, e.g. image classification and object detection. In this paper we instead seek to learn representations that transfer well to a wide variety of 3D vision and lower-level geometric downstream tasks, such as depth prediction or optical flow estimation. Inspired by MIM, we propose an unsupervised representation learning task trained from pairs of images showing the same scene from different viewpoints. More precisely, we propose the pretext task of cross-view completion where the first input image is partially masked, and this masked content has to be reconstructed from the visible content and the second image. In single-view MIM, the masked content often cannot be inferred precisely from the visible portion only, so the model learns to act as a prior influenced by high-level semantics. In contrast, this ambiguity can be resolved with cross-view completion from the second unmasked image, on the condition that the model is able to understand the spatial relationship between the two images. Our experiments show that our pretext task leads to significantly improved performance for monocular 3D vision downstream tasks such as depth estimation. In addition, our model can be directly applied to binocular downstream tasks like optical flow or relative camera pose estimation, for which we obtain competitive results without bells and whistles, i.e., using a generic architecture without any task-specific design.

Deep neural networks are highly performant, but might base their decision on spurious or background features that co-occur with certain classes, which can hurt generalization. To mitigate this issue, the usage of 'model guidance' has gained popularity recently: for this, models are guided to be "right for the right reasons" by regularizing the models' explanations to highlight the right features. Experimental validation of these approaches has thus far however been limited to relatively simple and / or synthetic datasets. To gain a better understanding of which model-guiding approaches actually transfer to more challenging real-world datasets, in this work we conduct an in-depth evaluation across various loss functions, attribution methods, models, and 'guidance depths' on the PASCAL VOC 2007 and MS COCO 2014 datasets, and show that model guidance can sometimes even improve model performance. In this context, we further propose a novel energy loss, show its effectiveness in directing the model to focus on object features. We also show that these gains can be achieved even with a small fraction (e.g. 1%) of bounding box annotations, highlighting the cost effectiveness of this approach. Lastly, we show that this approach can also improve generalization under distribution shifts. Code will be made available.

The absolute depth values of surrounding environments provide crucial cues for various assistive technologies, such as localization, navigation, and 3D structure estimation. We propose that accurate depth estimated from panoramic images can serve as a powerful and light-weight input for a wide range of downstream tasks requiring 3D information. While panoramic images can easily capture the surrounding context from commodity devices, the estimated depth shares the limitations of conventional image-based depth estimation; the performance deteriorates under large domain shifts and the absolute values are still ambiguous to infer from 2D observations. By taking advantage of the holistic view, we mitigate such effects in a self-supervised way and fine-tune the network with geometric consistency during the test phase. Specifically, we construct a 3D point cloud from the current depth prediction and project the point cloud at various viewpoints or apply stretches on the current input image to generate synthetic panoramas. Then we minimize the discrepancy of the 3D structure estimated from synthetic images without collecting additional data. We empirically evaluate our method in robot navigation and map-free localization where our method shows large performance enhancements. Our calibration method can therefore widen the applicability under various external conditions, serving as a key component for practical panorama-based machine vision systems.

Which transformer scaling regimes are able to perfectly solve different classes of algorithmic problems? While tremendous empirical advances have been attained by transformer-based neural networks, a theoretical understanding of their algorithmic reasoning capabilities in realistic parameter regimes is lacking. We investigate this question in terms of the network's depth, width, and number of extra tokens for algorithm execution. Our novel representational hierarchy separates 9 algorithmic reasoning problems into classes solvable by transformers in different realistic parameter scaling regimes. We prove that logarithmic depth is necessary and sufficient for tasks like graph connectivity, while single-layer transformers with small embedding dimensions can solve contextual retrieval tasks. We also support our theoretical analysis with ample empirical evidence using the GraphQA benchmark. These results show that transformers excel at many graph reasoning tasks, even outperforming specialized graph neural networks.

Scene completion and forecasting are two popular perception problems in research for mobile agents like autonomous vehicles. Existing approaches treat the two problems in isolation, resulting in a separate perception of the two aspects. In this paper, we introduce a novel LiDAR perception task of Occupancy Completion and Forecasting (OCF) in the context of autonomous driving to unify these aspects into a cohesive framework. This task requires new algorithms to address three challenges altogether: (1) sparse-to-dense reconstruction, (2) partial-to-complete hallucination, and (3) 3D-to-4D prediction. To enable supervision and evaluation, we curate a large-scale dataset termed OCFBench from public autonomous driving datasets. We analyze the performance of closely related existing baseline models and our own ones on our dataset. We envision that this research will inspire and call for further investigation in this evolving and crucial area of 4D perception. Our code for data curation and baseline implementation is available at https://github.com/ai4ce/Occ4cast.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction, which aims to predict the probability of a user clicking on an ad or an item, is critical to many online applications such as online advertising and recommender systems. The problem is very challenging since (1) the input features (e.g., the user id, user age, item id, item category) are usually sparse and high-dimensional, and (2) an effective prediction relies on high-order combinatorial features (a.k.a. cross features), which are very time-consuming to hand-craft by domain experts and are impossible to be enumerated. Therefore, there have been efforts in finding low-dimensional representations of the sparse and high-dimensional raw features and their meaningful combinations. In this paper, we propose an effective and efficient method called the AutoInt to automatically learn the high-order feature interactions of input features. Our proposed algorithm is very general, which can be applied to both numerical and categorical input features. Specifically, we map both the numerical and categorical features into the same low-dimensional space. Afterwards, a multi-head self-attentive neural network with residual connections is proposed to explicitly model the feature interactions in the low-dimensional space. With different layers of the multi-head self-attentive neural networks, different orders of feature combinations of input features can be modeled. The whole model can be efficiently fit on large-scale raw data in an end-to-end fashion. Experimental results on four real-world datasets show that our proposed approach not only outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches for prediction but also offers good explainability. Code is available at: https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/RecommenderSystems.

To process novel sentences, language models (LMs) must generalize compositionally -- combine familiar elements in new ways. What aspects of a model's structure promote compositional generalization? Focusing on transformers, we test the hypothesis, motivated by recent theoretical and empirical work, that transformers generalize more compositionally when they are deeper (have more layers). Because simply adding layers increases the total number of parameters, confounding depth and size, we construct three classes of models which trade off depth for width such that the total number of parameters is kept constant (41M, 134M and 374M parameters). We pretrain all models as LMs and fine-tune them on tasks that test for compositional generalization. We report three main conclusions: (1) after fine-tuning, deeper models generalize better out-of-distribution than shallower models do, but the relative benefit of additional layers diminishes rapidly; (2) within each family, deeper models show better language modeling performance, but returns are similarly diminishing; (3) the benefits of depth for compositional generalization cannot be attributed solely to better performance on language modeling or on in-distribution data.

Self-supervised representation learning solves auxiliary prediction tasks (known as pretext tasks) without requiring labeled data to learn useful semantic representations. These pretext tasks are created solely using the input features, such as predicting a missing image patch, recovering the color channels of an image from context, or predicting missing words in text; yet predicting this known information helps in learning representations effective for downstream prediction tasks. We posit a mechanism exploiting the statistical connections between certain {\em reconstruction-based} pretext tasks that guarantee to learn a good representation. Formally, we quantify how the approximate independence between the components of the pretext task (conditional on the label and latent variables) allows us to learn representations that can solve the downstream task by just training a linear layer on top of the learned representation. We prove the linear layer yields small approximation error even for complex ground truth function class and will drastically reduce labeled sample complexity. Next, we show a simple modification of our method leads to nonlinear CCA, analogous to the popular SimSiam algorithm, and show similar guarantees for nonlinear CCA.

Learning a good history representation is one of the core challenges of reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. Recent works have shown the advantages of various auxiliary tasks for facilitating representation learning. However, the effectiveness of such auxiliary tasks has not been fully convincing, especially in partially observable environments that require long-term memorization and inference. In this empirical study, we investigate the effectiveness of future prediction for learning the representations of histories, possibly of extensive length, in partially observable environments. We first introduce an approach that decouples the task of learning history representations from policy optimization via future prediction. Then, our main contributions are two-fold: (a) we demonstrate that the performance of reinforcement learning is strongly correlated with the prediction accuracy of future observations in partially observable environments, and (b) our approach can significantly improve the overall end-to-end approach by preventing high-variance noisy signals from reinforcement learning objectives to influence the representation learning. We illustrate our claims on three types of benchmarks that necessitate the ability to process long histories for high returns.

Causal decoder-only transformer models used for generative language modelling, such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPT), are trained to predict the next token in a sequence based only on its previous tokens. Despite this simple training objective, they have proved to be powerful AI tools. However, only predicting the next token results in top layer embedding vectors that are highly token-focused. There may be benefits in generating embedding vectors at each token position that better capture the overall meaning of longer sequences of future text. Recent studies matching brain scans with deep language models suggest that humans also predict upcoming words when listening or reading but consider multiple future tokens rather than just one. This research investigates a new pretraining method called Future Token Prediction (FTP). In FTP, a large transformer encoder generates top layer embedding vectors for each token position, which, instead of being passed to a language head, are linearly and expansively projected to a pseudo-sequence, which is cross attended to by a small transformer decoder to predict the next N tokens forward from that position in the sequence. The top layer embedding vectors from FTP models exhibit distinct properties compared to those from standard GPT models, varying smoothly along a text sequence as measured by cosine similarity between adjacent tokens. Text generated by FTP models show improved topic coherence compared to standard GPT-like models trained with the same prediction perplexity for the next single token. The vectors are shown to better represent the topic of text based on the results of text classification examples. On a toy, but complex, coding problem, FTP networks produce significantly better results than GPT networks.

Monocular and binocular self-supervised depth estimations are two important and related tasks in computer vision, which aim to predict scene depths from single images and stereo image pairs respectively. In literature, the two tasks are usually tackled separately by two different kinds of models, and binocular models generally fail to predict depth from single images, while the prediction accuracy of monocular models is generally inferior to binocular models. In this paper, we propose a Two-in-One self-supervised depth estimation network, called TiO-Depth, which could not only compatibly handle the two tasks, but also improve the prediction accuracy. TiO-Depth employs a Siamese architecture and each sub-network of it could be used as a monocular depth estimation model. For binocular depth estimation, a Monocular Feature Matching module is proposed for incorporating the stereo knowledge between the two images, and the full TiO-Depth is used to predict depths. We also design a multi-stage joint-training strategy for improving the performances of TiO-Depth in both two tasks by combining the relative advantages of them. Experimental results on the KITTI, Cityscapes, and DDAD datasets demonstrate that TiO-Depth outperforms both the monocular and binocular state-of-the-art methods in most cases, and further verify the feasibility of a two-in-one network for monocular and binocular depth estimation. The code is available at https://github.com/ZM-Zhou/TiO-Depth_pytorch.

Monocular depth estimation is a fundamental computer vision task. Recovering 3D depth from a single image is geometrically ill-posed and requires scene understanding, so it is not surprising that the rise of deep learning has led to a breakthrough. The impressive progress of monocular depth estimators has mirrored the growth in model capacity, from relatively modest CNNs to large Transformer architectures. Still, monocular depth estimators tend to struggle when presented with images with unfamiliar content and layout, since their knowledge of the visual world is restricted by the data seen during training, and challenged by zero-shot generalization to new domains. This motivates us to explore whether the extensive priors captured in recent generative diffusion models can enable better, more generalizable depth estimation. We introduce Marigold, a method for affine-invariant monocular depth estimation that is derived from Stable Diffusion and retains its rich prior knowledge. The estimator can be fine-tuned in a couple of days on a single GPU using only synthetic training data. It delivers state-of-the-art performance across a wide range of datasets, including over 20% performance gains in specific cases. Project page: https://marigoldmonodepth.github.io.

Predicting future dynamics is crucial for applications like autonomous driving and robotics, where understanding the environment is key. Existing pixel-level methods are computationally expensive and often focus on irrelevant details. To address these challenges, we introduce DINO-Foresight, a novel framework that operates in the semantic feature space of pretrained Vision Foundation Models (VFMs). Our approach trains a masked feature transformer in a self-supervised manner to predict the evolution of VFM features over time. By forecasting these features, we can apply off-the-shelf, task-specific heads for various scene understanding tasks. In this framework, VFM features are treated as a latent space, to which different heads attach to perform specific tasks for future-frame analysis. Extensive experiments show that our framework outperforms existing methods, demonstrating its robustness and scalability. Additionally, we highlight how intermediate transformer representations in DINO-Foresight improve downstream task performance, offering a promising path for the self-supervised enhancement of VFM features. We provide the implementation code at https://github.com/Sta8is/DINO-Foresight .

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Current, self-supervised depth estimation architectures rely on clear and sunny weather scenes to train deep neural networks. However, in many locations, this assumption is too strong. For example in the UK (2021), 149 days consisted of rain. For these architectures to be effective in real-world applications, we must create models that can generalise to all weather conditions, times of the day and image qualities. Using a combination of computer graphics and generative models, one can augment existing sunny-weather data in a variety of ways that simulate adverse weather effects. While it is tempting to use such data augmentations for self-supervised depth, in the past this was shown to degrade performance instead of improving it. In this paper, we put forward a method that uses augmentations to remedy this problem. By exploiting the correspondence between unaugmented and augmented data we introduce a pseudo-supervised loss for both depth and pose estimation. This brings back some of the benefits of supervised learning while still not requiring any labels. We also make a series of practical recommendations which collectively offer a reliable, efficient framework for weather-related augmentation of self-supervised depth from monocular video. We present extensive testing to show that our method, Robust-Depth, achieves SotA performance on the KITTI dataset while significantly surpassing SotA on challenging, adverse condition data such as DrivingStereo, Foggy CityScape and NuScenes-Night. The project website can be found here https://kieran514.github.io/Robust-Depth-Project/.

Incorporating domain-specific priors in search and navigation tasks has shown promising results in improving generalization and sample complexity over end-to-end trained policies. In this work, we study how object embeddings that capture spatial semantic priors can guide search and navigation tasks in a structured environment. We know that humans can search for an object like a book, or a plate in an unseen house, based on the spatial semantics of bigger objects detected. For example, a book is likely to be on a bookshelf or a table, whereas a plate is likely to be in a cupboard or dishwasher. We propose a method to incorporate such spatial semantic awareness in robots by leveraging pre-trained language models and multi-relational knowledge bases as object embeddings. We demonstrate using these object embeddings to search a query object in an unseen indoor environment. We measure the performance of these embeddings in an indoor simulator (AI2Thor). We further evaluate different pre-trained embedding onSuccess Rate(SR) and success weighted by Path Length(SPL).

In recent years, Transformers have become the de-facto architecture for sequence modeling on text and a variety of multi-dimensional data, such as images and video. However, the use of self-attention layers in a Transformer incurs prohibitive compute and memory complexity that scales quadratically w.r.t. the sequence length. A recent architecture, Mamba, based on state space models has been shown to achieve comparable performance for modeling text sequences, while scaling linearly with the sequence length. In this work, we present Mamba-ND, a generalized design extending the Mamba architecture to arbitrary multi-dimensional data. Our design alternatively unravels the input data across different dimensions following row-major orderings. We provide a systematic comparison of Mamba-ND with several other alternatives, based on prior multi-dimensional extensions such as Bi-directional LSTMs and S4ND. Empirically, we show that Mamba-ND demonstrates performance competitive with the state-of-the-art on a variety of multi-dimensional benchmarks, including ImageNet-1K classification, HMDB-51 action recognition, and ERA5 weather forecasting.

Prediction of stock price and stock price movement patterns has always been a critical area of research. While the well-known efficient market hypothesis rules out any possibility of accurate prediction of stock prices, there are formal propositions in the literature demonstrating accurate modeling of the predictive systems that can enable us to predict stock prices with a very high level of accuracy. In this paper, we present a suite of deep learning-based regression models that yields a very high level of accuracy in stock price prediction. To build our predictive models, we use the historical stock price data of a well-known company listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India during the period December 31, 2012 to January 9, 2015. The stock prices are recorded at five minutes intervals of time during each working day in a week. Using these extremely granular stock price data, we build four convolutional neural network (CNN) and five long- and short-term memory (LSTM)-based deep learning models for accurate forecasting of the future stock prices. We provide detailed results on the forecasting accuracies of all our proposed models based on their execution time and their root mean square error (RMSE) values.

We present a self-supervised sensorimotor pre-training approach for robotics. Our model, called RPT, is a Transformer that operates on sequences of sensorimotor tokens. Given a sequence of camera images, proprioceptive robot states, and past actions, we encode the interleaved sequence into tokens, mask out a random subset, and train a model to predict the masked-out content. We hypothesize that if the robot can predict the missing content it has acquired a good model of the physical world that can enable it to act. RPT is designed to operate on latent visual representations which makes prediction tractable, enables scaling to 10x larger models, and 10 Hz inference on a real robot. To evaluate our approach, we collect a dataset of 20,000 real-world trajectories over 9 months using a combination of motion planning and model-based grasping algorithms. We find that pre-training on this data consistently outperforms training from scratch, leads to 2x improvements in the block stacking task, and has favorable scaling properties.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

This paper presents a significant improvement on the previous conference paper known as DefSent. The prior study seeks to improve sentence embeddings of language models by projecting definition sentences into the vector space of dictionary entries. We discover that this approach is not fully explored due to the methodological limitation of using word embeddings of language models to represent dictionary entries. This leads to two hindrances. First, dictionary entries are constrained by the single-word vocabulary, and thus cannot be fully exploited. Second, semantic representations of language models are known to be anisotropic, but pre-processing word embeddings for DefSent is not allowed because its weight is frozen during training and tied to the prediction layer. In this paper, we propose a novel method to progressively build entry embeddings not subject to the limitations. As a result, definition sentences can be projected into a quasi-isotropic or isotropic vector space of unlimited dictionary entries, so that sentence embeddings of noticeably better quality are attainable. We abbreviate our approach as DefSent+ (a plus version of DefSent), involving the following strengths: 1) the task performance on measuring sentence similarities is significantly improved compared to DefSent; 2) when DefSent+ is used to further train data-augmented models like SIMCSE, SNCSE, and SynCSE, state-of-the-art performance on measuring sentence similarities can be achieved among the approaches without using manually labeled datasets; 3) DefSent+ is also competitive in feature-based transfer for NLP downstream tasks.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for various time series applications. However, the semantic space of LLMs, established through the pre-training, is still underexplored and may help yield more distinctive and informative representations to facilitate time series forecasting. To this end, we propose Semantic Space Informed Prompt learning with LLM (S^2IP-LLM) to align the pre-trained semantic space with time series embeddings space and perform time series forecasting based on learned prompts from the joint space. We first design a tokenization module tailored for cross-modality alignment, which explicitly concatenates patches of decomposed time series components to create embeddings that effectively encode the temporal dynamics. Next, we leverage the pre-trained word token embeddings to derive semantic anchors and align selected anchors with time series embeddings by maximizing the cosine similarity in the joint space. This way, S^2IP-LLM can retrieve relevant semantic anchors as prompts to provide strong indicators (context) for time series that exhibit different temporal dynamics. With thorough empirical studies on multiple benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed S^2IP-LLM can achieve superior forecasting performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our ablation studies and visualizations verify the necessity of prompt learning informed by semantic space.

In this work, we leverage pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance time-series forecasting. Mirroring the growing interest in unifying models for Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision, we envision creating an analogous model for long-term time-series forecasting. Due to limited large-scale time-series data for building robust foundation models, our approach LLM4TS focuses on leveraging the strengths of pre-trained LLMs. By combining time-series patching with temporal encoding, we have enhanced the capability of LLMs to handle time-series data effectively. Inspired by the supervised fine-tuning in chatbot domains, we prioritize a two-stage fine-tuning process: first conducting supervised fine-tuning to orient the LLM towards time-series data, followed by task-specific downstream fine-tuning. Furthermore, to unlock the flexibility of pre-trained LLMs without extensive parameter adjustments, we adopt several Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques. Drawing on these innovations, LLM4TS has yielded state-of-the-art results in long-term forecasting. Our model has also shown exceptional capabilities as both a robust representation learner and an effective few-shot learner, thanks to the knowledge transferred from the pre-trained LLM.

Monocular depth estimation (MDE) is a fundamental topic of geometric computer vision and a core technique for many downstream applications. Recently, several methods reframe the MDE as a classification-regression problem where a linear combination of probabilistic distribution and bin centers is used to predict depth. In this paper, we propose a novel concept of iterative elastic bins (IEBins) for the classification-regression-based MDE. The proposed IEBins aims to search for high-quality depth by progressively optimizing the search range, which involves multiple stages and each stage performs a finer-grained depth search in the target bin on top of its previous stage. To alleviate the possible error accumulation during the iterative process, we utilize a novel elastic target bin to replace the original target bin, the width of which is adjusted elastically based on the depth uncertainty. Furthermore, we develop a dedicated framework composed of a feature extractor and an iterative optimizer that has powerful temporal context modeling capabilities benefiting from the GRU-based architecture. Extensive experiments on the KITTI, NYU-Depth-v2 and SUN RGB-D datasets demonstrate that the proposed method surpasses prior state-of-the-art competitors. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/ShuweiShao/IEBins.

Gaze behaviors such as eye-contact or shared attention are important markers for diagnosing developmental disorders in children. While previous studies have looked at some of these elements, the analysis is usually performed on private datasets and is restricted to lab settings. Furthermore, all publicly available gaze target prediction benchmarks mostly contain instances of adults, which makes models trained on them less applicable to scenarios with young children. In this paper, we propose the first study for predicting the gaze target of children and interacting adults. To this end, we introduce the ChildPlay dataset: a curated collection of short video clips featuring children playing and interacting with adults in uncontrolled environments (e.g. kindergarten, therapy centers, preschools etc.), which we annotate with rich gaze information. We further propose a new model for gaze target prediction that is geometrically grounded by explicitly identifying the scene parts in the 3D field of view (3DFoV) of the person, leveraging recent geometry preserving depth inference methods. Our model achieves state of the art results on benchmark datasets and ChildPlay. Furthermore, results show that looking at faces prediction performance on children is much worse than on adults, and can be significantly improved by fine-tuning models using child gaze annotations. Our dataset and models will be made publicly available.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Recent advancements in predictive models have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in predicting the future state of objects and scenes. However, the lack of categorization based on inherent characteristics continues to hinder the progress of predictive model development. Additionally, existing benchmarks are unable to effectively evaluate higher-capability, highly embodied predictive models from an embodied perspective. In this work, we classify the functionalities of predictive models into a hierarchy and take the first step in evaluating World Simulators by proposing a dual evaluation framework called WorldSimBench. WorldSimBench includes Explicit Perceptual Evaluation and Implicit Manipulative Evaluation, encompassing human preference assessments from the visual perspective and action-level evaluations in embodied tasks, covering three representative embodied scenarios: Open-Ended Embodied Environment, Autonomous, Driving, and Robot Manipulation. In the Explicit Perceptual Evaluation, we introduce the HF-Embodied Dataset, a video assessment dataset based on fine-grained human feedback, which we use to train a Human Preference Evaluator that aligns with human perception and explicitly assesses the visual fidelity of World Simulators. In the Implicit Manipulative Evaluation, we assess the video-action consistency of World Simulators by evaluating whether the generated situation-aware video can be accurately translated into the correct control signals in dynamic environments. Our comprehensive evaluation offers key insights that can drive further innovation in video generation models, positioning World Simulators as a pivotal advancement toward embodied artificial intelligence.

Depth estimation from a single image is an important task that can be applied to various fields in computer vision, and has grown rapidly with the development of convolutional neural networks. In this paper, we propose a novel structure and training strategy for monocular depth estimation to further improve the prediction accuracy of the network. We deploy a hierarchical transformer encoder to capture and convey the global context, and design a lightweight yet powerful decoder to generate an estimated depth map while considering local connectivity. By constructing connected paths between multi-scale local features and the global decoding stream with our proposed selective feature fusion module, the network can integrate both representations and recover fine details. In addition, the proposed decoder shows better performance than the previously proposed decoders, with considerably less computational complexity. Furthermore, we improve the depth-specific augmentation method by utilizing an important observation in depth estimation to enhance the model. Our network achieves state-of-the-art performance over the challenging depth dataset NYU Depth V2. Extensive experiments have been conducted to validate and show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, our model shows better generalisation ability and robustness than other comparative models.

Inferring the depth of transparent or mirror (ToM) surfaces represents a hard challenge for either sensors, algorithms, or deep networks. We propose a simple pipeline for learning to estimate depth properly for such surfaces with neural networks, without requiring any ground-truth annotation. We unveil how to obtain reliable pseudo labels by in-painting ToM objects in images and processing them with a monocular depth estimation model. These labels can be used to fine-tune existing monocular or stereo networks, to let them learn how to deal with ToM surfaces. Experimental results on the Booster dataset show the dramatic improvements enabled by our remarkably simple proposal.

Recent works show that pre-trained language models (PTLMs), such as BERT, possess certain commonsense and factual knowledge. They suggest that it is promising to use PTLMs as "neural knowledge bases" via predicting masked words. Surprisingly, we find that this may not work for numerical commonsense knowledge (e.g., a bird usually has two legs). In this paper, we investigate whether and to what extent we can induce numerical commonsense knowledge from PTLMs as well as the robustness of this process. To study this, we introduce a novel probing task with a diagnostic dataset, NumerSense, containing 13.6k masked-word-prediction probes (10.5k for fine-tuning and 3.1k for testing). Our analysis reveals that: (1) BERT and its stronger variant RoBERTa perform poorly on the diagnostic dataset prior to any fine-tuning; (2) fine-tuning with distant supervision brings some improvement; (3) the best supervised model still performs poorly as compared to human performance (54.06% vs 96.3% in accuracy).

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

This paper presents a new approach to recognize elements in floor plan layouts. Besides walls and rooms, we aim to recognize diverse floor plan elements, such as doors, windows and different types of rooms, in the floor layouts. To this end, we model a hierarchy of floor plan elements and design a deep multi-task neural network with two tasks: one to learn to predict room-boundary elements, and the other to predict rooms with types. More importantly, we formulate the room-boundary-guided attention mechanism in our spatial contextual module to carefully take room-boundary features into account to enhance the room-type predictions. Furthermore, we design a cross-and-within-task weighted loss to balance the multi-label tasks and prepare two new datasets for floor plan recognition. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority and effectiveness of our network over the state-of-the-art methods.

Recent advances in language modeling consist in pretraining highly parameterized neural networks on extremely large web-mined text corpora. Training and inference with such models can be costly in practice, which incentivizes the use of smaller counterparts. However, it has been observed that smaller models can suffer from saturation, characterized as a drop in performance at some advanced point in training followed by a plateau. In this paper, we find that such saturation can be explained by a mismatch between the hidden dimension of smaller models and the high rank of the target contextual probability distribution. This mismatch affects the performance of the linear prediction head used in such models through the well-known softmax bottleneck phenomenon. We measure the effect of the softmax bottleneck in various settings and find that models based on less than 1000 hidden dimensions tend to adopt degenerate latent representations in late pretraining, which leads to reduced evaluation performance.

Since the introduction of the transformer model by Vaswani et al. (2017), a fundamental question has yet to be answered: how does a model achieve extrapolation at inference time for sequences that are longer than it saw during training? We first show that extrapolation can be enabled by simply changing the position representation method, though we find that current methods do not allow for efficient extrapolation. We therefore introduce a simpler and more efficient position method, Attention with Linear Biases (ALiBi). ALiBi does not add positional embeddings to word embeddings; instead, it biases query-key attention scores with a penalty that is proportional to their distance. We show that this method trains a 1.3 billion parameter model on input sequences of length 1024 that extrapolates to input sequences of length 2048, achieving the same perplexity as a sinusoidal position embedding model trained on inputs of length 2048 but training 11% faster and using 11% less memory. ALiBi's inductive bias towards recency also leads it to outperform multiple strong position methods on the WikiText-103 benchmark.

Recently, unsupervised representation learning (URL) has improved the sample efficiency of Reinforcement Learning (RL) by pretraining a model from a large unlabeled dataset. The underlying principle of these methods is to learn temporally predictive representations by predicting future states in the latent space. However, an important challenge of this approach is the representational collapse, where the subspace of the latent representations collapses into a low-dimensional manifold. To address this issue, we propose a novel URL framework that causally predicts future states while increasing the dimension of the latent manifold by decorrelating the features in the latent space. Through extensive empirical studies, we demonstrate that our framework effectively learns predictive representations without collapse, which significantly improves the sample efficiency of state-of-the-art URL methods on the Atari 100k benchmark. The code is available at https://github.com/dojeon-ai/SimTPR.

Labeling LiDAR point clouds is notoriously time-and-energy-consuming, which spurs recent unsupervised 3D representation learning methods to alleviate the labeling burden in LiDAR perception via pretrained weights. Almost all existing work focus on a single frame of LiDAR point cloud and neglect the temporal LiDAR sequence, which naturally accounts for object motion (and their semantics). Instead, we propose TREND, namely Temporal REndering with Neural fielD, to learn 3D representation via forecasting the future observation in an unsupervised manner. Unlike existing work that follows conventional contrastive learning or masked auto encoding paradigms, TREND integrates forecasting for 3D pre-training through a Recurrent Embedding scheme to generate 3D embedding across time and a Temporal Neural Field to represent the 3D scene, through which we compute the loss using differentiable rendering. To our best knowledge, TREND is the first work on temporal forecasting for unsupervised 3D representation learning. We evaluate TREND on downstream 3D object detection tasks on popular datasets, including NuScenes, Once and Waymo. Experiment results show that TREND brings up to 90% more improvement as compared to previous SOTA unsupervised 3D pre-training methods and generally improve different downstream models across datasets, demonstrating that indeed temporal forecasting brings improvement for LiDAR perception. Codes and models will be released.

We present Visuelle 2.0, the first dataset useful for facing diverse prediction problems that a fast-fashion company has to manage routinely. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the use of computer vision is substantial in this scenario. Visuelle 2.0 contains data for 6 seasons / 5355 clothing products of Nuna Lie, a famous Italian company with hundreds of shops located in different areas within the country. In particular, we focus on a specific prediction problem, namely short-observation new product sale forecasting (SO-fore). SO-fore assumes that the season has started and a set of new products is on the shelves of the different stores. The goal is to forecast the sales for a particular horizon, given a short, available past (few weeks), since no earlier statistics are available. To be successful, SO-fore approaches should capture this short past and exploit other modalities or exogenous data. To these aims, Visuelle 2.0 is equipped with disaggregated data at the item-shop level and multi-modal information for each clothing item, allowing computer vision approaches to come into play. The main message that we deliver is that the use of image data with deep networks boosts performances obtained when using the time series in long-term forecasting scenarios, ameliorating the WAPE and MAE by up to 5.48% and 7% respectively compared to competitive baseline methods. The dataset is available at https://humaticslab.github.io/forecasting/visuelle

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

The prediction of ship trajectories is a growing field of study in artificial intelligence. Traditional methods rely on the use of LSTM, GRU networks, and even Transformer architectures for the prediction of spatio-temporal series. This study proposes a viable alternative for predicting these trajectories using only GNSS positions. It considers this spatio-temporal problem as a natural language processing problem. The latitude/longitude coordinates of AIS messages are transformed into cell identifiers using the H3 index. Thanks to the pseudo-octal representation, it becomes easier for language models to learn the spatial hierarchy of the H3 index. The method is compared with a classical Kalman filter, widely used in the maritime domain, and introduces the Fr\'echet distance as the main evaluation metric. We show that it is possible to predict ship trajectories quite precisely up to 8 hours with 30 minutes of context. We demonstrate that this alternative works well enough to predict trajectories worldwide.

The success of deep learning in vision can be attributed to: (a) models with high capacity; (b) increased computational power; and (c) availability of large-scale labeled data. Since 2012, there have been significant advances in representation capabilities of the models and computational capabilities of GPUs. But the size of the biggest dataset has surprisingly remained constant. What will happen if we increase the dataset size by 10x or 100x? This paper takes a step towards clearing the clouds of mystery surrounding the relationship between `enormous data' and visual deep learning. By exploiting the JFT-300M dataset which has more than 375M noisy labels for 300M images, we investigate how the performance of current vision tasks would change if this data was used for representation learning. Our paper delivers some surprising (and some expected) findings. First, we find that the performance on vision tasks increases logarithmically based on volume of training data size. Second, we show that representation learning (or pre-training) still holds a lot of promise. One can improve performance on many vision tasks by just training a better base model. Finally, as expected, we present new state-of-the-art results for different vision tasks including image classification, object detection, semantic segmentation and human pose estimation. Our sincere hope is that this inspires vision community to not undervalue the data and develop collective efforts in building larger datasets.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Current visual foundation models are trained purely on unstructured 2D data, limiting their understanding of 3D structure of objects and scenes. In this work, we show that fine-tuning on 3D-aware data improves the quality of emerging semantic features. We design a method to lift semantic 2D features into an efficient 3D Gaussian representation, which allows us to re-render them for arbitrary views. Using the rendered 3D-aware features, we design a fine-tuning strategy to transfer such 3D awareness into a 2D foundation model. We demonstrate that models fine-tuned in that way produce features that readily improve downstream task performance in semantic segmentation and depth estimation through simple linear probing. Notably, though fined-tuned on a single indoor dataset, the improvement is transferable to a variety of indoor datasets and out-of-domain datasets. We hope our study encourages the community to consider injecting 3D awareness when training 2D foundation models. Project page: https://ywyue.github.io/FiT3D.

Foundation models in language and vision have the ability to run inference on any textual and visual inputs thanks to the transferable representations such as a vocabulary of tokens in language. Knowledge graphs (KGs) have different entity and relation vocabularies that generally do not overlap. The key challenge of designing foundation models on KGs is to learn such transferable representations that enable inference on any graph with arbitrary entity and relation vocabularies. In this work, we make a step towards such foundation models and present ULTRA, an approach for learning universal and transferable graph representations. ULTRA builds relational representations as a function conditioned on their interactions. Such a conditioning strategy allows a pre-trained ULTRA model to inductively generalize to any unseen KG with any relation vocabulary and to be fine-tuned on any graph. Conducting link prediction experiments on 57 different KGs, we find that the zero-shot inductive inference performance of a single pre-trained ULTRA model on unseen graphs of various sizes is often on par or better than strong baselines trained on specific graphs. Fine-tuning further boosts the performance.

We introduce the "Belief State Transformer", a next-token predictor that takes both a prefix and suffix as inputs, with a novel objective of predicting both the next token for the prefix and the previous token for the suffix. The Belief State Transformer effectively learns to solve challenging problems that conventional forward-only transformers struggle with, in a domain-independent fashion. Key to this success is learning a compact belief state that captures all relevant information necessary for accurate predictions. Empirical ablations show that each component of the model is essential in difficult scenarios where standard Transformers fall short. For the task of story writing with known prefixes and suffixes, our approach outperforms the Fill-in-the-Middle method for reaching known goals and demonstrates improved performance even when the goals are unknown. Altogether, the Belief State Transformer enables more efficient goal-conditioned decoding, better test-time inference, and high-quality text representations on small scale problems. Website: https://sites.google.com/view/belief-state-transformer

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

The ability to predict upcoming events has been hypothesized to comprise a key aspect of natural and machine cognition. This is supported by trends in deep reinforcement learning (RL), where self-supervised auxiliary objectives such as prediction are widely used to support representation learning and improve task performance. Here, we study the effects predictive auxiliary objectives have on representation learning across different modules of an RL system and how these mimic representational changes observed in the brain. We find that predictive objectives improve and stabilize learning particularly in resource-limited architectures, and we identify settings where longer predictive horizons better support representational transfer. Furthermore, we find that representational changes in this RL system bear a striking resemblance to changes in neural activity observed in the brain across various experiments. Specifically, we draw a connection between the auxiliary predictive model of the RL system and hippocampus, an area thought to learn a predictive model to support memory-guided behavior. We also connect the encoder network and the value learning network of the RL system to visual cortex and striatum in the brain, respectively. This work demonstrates how representation learning in deep RL systems can provide an interpretable framework for modeling multi-region interactions in the brain. The deep RL perspective taken here also suggests an additional role of the hippocampus in the brain -- that of an auxiliary learning system that benefits representation learning in other regions.

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

We present a machine learning algorithm that takes as input a 2D RGB image and synthesizes a 4D RGBD light field (color and depth of the scene in each ray direction). For training, we introduce the largest public light field dataset, consisting of over 3300 plenoptic camera light fields of scenes containing flowers and plants. Our synthesis pipeline consists of a convolutional neural network (CNN) that estimates scene geometry, a stage that renders a Lambertian light field using that geometry, and a second CNN that predicts occluded rays and non-Lambertian effects. Our algorithm builds on recent view synthesis methods, but is unique in predicting RGBD for each light field ray and improving unsupervised single image depth estimation by enforcing consistency of ray depths that should intersect the same scene point. Please see our supplementary video at https://youtu.be/yLCvWoQLnms

We perform an effective-theory analysis of forward-backward signal propagation in wide and deep Transformers, i.e., residual neural networks with multi-head self-attention blocks and multilayer perceptron blocks. This analysis suggests particular width scalings of initialization and training hyperparameters for these models. We then take up such suggestions, training Vision and Language Transformers in practical setups.

We introduce a method that simultaneously learns to explore new large environments and to reconstruct them in 3D from color images only. This is closely related to the Next Best View problem (NBV), where one has to identify where to move the camera next to improve the coverage of an unknown scene. However, most of the current NBV methods rely on depth sensors, need 3D supervision and/or do not scale to large scenes. Our method requires only a color camera and no 3D supervision. It simultaneously learns in a self-supervised fashion to predict a "volume occupancy field" from color images and, from this field, to predict the NBV. Thanks to this approach, our method performs well on new scenes as it is not biased towards any training 3D data. We demonstrate this on a recent dataset made of various 3D scenes and show it performs even better than recent methods requiring a depth sensor, which is not a realistic assumption for outdoor scenes captured with a flying drone.

Sequence-to-sequence models are commonly trained via maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). However, standard MLE training considers a word-level objective, predicting the next word given the previous ground-truth partial sentence. This procedure focuses on modeling local syntactic patterns, and may fail to capture long-range semantic structure. We present a novel solution to alleviate these issues. Our approach imposes global sequence-level guidance via new supervision based on optimal transport, enabling the overall characterization and preservation of semantic features. We further show that this method can be understood as a Wasserstein gradient flow trying to match our model to the ground truth sequence distribution. Extensive experiments are conducted to validate the utility of the proposed approach, showing consistent improvements over a wide variety of NLP tasks, including machine translation, abstractive text summarization, and image captioning.

We present Palm, a solution to the Long-Term Action Anticipation (LTA) task utilizing vision-language and large language models. Given an input video with annotated action periods, the LTA task aims to predict possible future actions. We hypothesize that an optimal solution should capture the interdependency between past and future actions, and be able to infer future actions based on the structure and dependency encoded in the past actions. Large language models have demonstrated remarkable commonsense-based reasoning ability. Inspired by that, Palm chains an image captioning model and a large language model. It predicts future actions based on frame descriptions and action labels extracted from the input videos. Our method outperforms other participants in the EGO4D LTA challenge and achieves the best performance in terms of action prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/DanDoge/Palm

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

We examine the potential of ChatGPT and other large language models in predicting stock market returns using news headlines. We use ChatGPT to assess whether each headline is good, bad, or neutral for firms' stock prices. We document a significantly positive correlation between ChatGPT scores and subsequent daily stock returns. We find that ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods. More basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability is an emerging capacity of complex language models. Long-short strategies based on ChatGPT-4 deliver the highest Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, we find predictability in both small and large stocks, suggesting market underreaction to company news. Predictability is stronger among smaller stocks and stocks with bad news, consistent with limits-to-arbitrage also playing an important role. Finally, we propose a new method to evaluate and understand the models' reasoning capabilities. Overall, our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies.

We find that the cross-entropy loss curves of neural language models empirically adhere to a scaling law with learning rate (LR) annealing over training steps (s): $L(s) = L_0 + Acdot S_1^{-alpha} - Ccdot S_2 Where S_1 is forward area and S_2$ is learning rate annealing area. This formulation takes into account two factors: (1) The forward scaling defined as typical scaling law, and (2) the additional loss drop brought by LR annealing. Therefore, this formulation can describe the full loss curve at each step, rather than the single loss point at the end of training. Applying the scaling law with LR annealing and fitting only one or two training curves, we can accurately predict the loss of language model training at any given step and across any learning rate scheduler (LRS). Furthermore, this equation accurately describes the dynamics during training process, and provides a theoretical verification and explanation for numerous experimental findings of previous studies, particularly those focusing on LR schedule and LR annealing. The resulting insights, also serve as a guide for researchers to select critical LRS in advance by prediction using our equation. Most significantly, since all the points in a full training curve follow the equation, we can achieve accurate loss prediction at any given step across any learning rate scheduler, while expending less than 1\% of the computational cost required by the chinchilla scaling law to fit language modeling loss. This approach extremely democratizes scaling law fitting and predicting in developing large language models.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Ranking models lie at the heart of research on information retrieval (IR). During the past decades, different techniques have been proposed for constructing ranking models, from traditional heuristic methods, probabilistic methods, to modern machine learning methods. Recently, with the advance of deep learning technology, we have witnessed a growing body of work in applying shallow or deep neural networks to the ranking problem in IR, referred to as neural ranking models in this paper. The power of neural ranking models lies in the ability to learn from the raw text inputs for the ranking problem to avoid many limitations of hand-crafted features. Neural networks have sufficient capacity to model complicated tasks, which is needed to handle the complexity of relevance estimation in ranking. Since there have been a large variety of neural ranking models proposed, we believe it is the right time to summarize the current status, learn from existing methodologies, and gain some insights for future development. In contrast to existing reviews, in this survey, we will take a deep look into the neural ranking models from different dimensions to analyze their underlying assumptions, major design principles, and learning strategies. We compare these models through benchmark tasks to obtain a comprehensive empirical understanding of the existing techniques. We will also discuss what is missing in the current literature and what are the promising and desired future directions.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) have gained great success in many artificial intelligence tasks. However, finding a good set of hyperparameters for a CNN remains a challenging task. It usually takes an expert with deep knowledge, and trials and errors. Genetic algorithms have been used in hyperparameter optimizations. However, traditional genetic algorithms with fixed-length chromosomes may not be a good fit for optimizing deep learning hyperparameters, because deep learning models have variable number of hyperparameters depending on the model depth. As the depth increases, the number of hyperparameters grows exponentially, and searching becomes exponentially harder. It is important to have an efficient algorithm that can find a good model in reasonable time. In this article, we propose to use a variable length genetic algorithm (GA) to systematically and automatically tune the hyperparameters of a CNN to improve its performance. Experimental results show that our algorithm can find good CNN hyperparameters efficiently. It is clear from our experiments that if more time is spent on optimizing the hyperparameters, better results could be achieved. Theoretically, if we had unlimited time and CPU power, we could find the optimized hyperparameters and achieve the best results in the future.

We show that feedforward neural networks with ReLU activation generalize on low complexity data, suitably defined. Given i.i.d. data generated from a simple programming language, the minimum description length (MDL) feedforward neural network which interpolates the data generalizes with high probability. We define this simple programming language, along with a notion of description length of such networks. We provide several examples on basic computational tasks, such as checking primality of a natural number, and more. For primality testing, our theorem shows the following. Suppose that we draw an i.i.d. sample of Theta(N^{delta}ln N) numbers uniformly at random from 1 to N, where deltain (0,1). For each number x_i, let y_i = 1 if x_i is a prime and 0 if it is not. Then with high probability, the MDL network fitted to this data accurately answers whether a newly drawn number between 1 and N is a prime or not, with test error leq O(N^{-delta}). Note that the network is not designed to detect primes; minimum description learning discovers a network which does so.

Although pretrained language models can be fine-tuned to produce state-of-the-art results for a very wide range of language understanding tasks, the dynamics of this process are not well understood, especially in the low data regime. Why can we use relatively vanilla gradient descent algorithms (e.g., without strong regularization) to tune a model with hundreds of millions of parameters on datasets with only hundreds or thousands of labeled examples? In this paper, we argue that analyzing fine-tuning through the lens of intrinsic dimension provides us with empirical and theoretical intuitions to explain this remarkable phenomenon. We empirically show that common pre-trained models have a very low intrinsic dimension; in other words, there exists a low dimension reparameterization that is as effective for fine-tuning as the full parameter space. For example, by optimizing only 200 trainable parameters randomly projected back into the full space, we can tune a RoBERTa model to achieve 90\% of the full parameter performance levels on MRPC. Furthermore, we empirically show that pre-training implicitly minimizes intrinsic dimension and, perhaps surprisingly, larger models tend to have lower intrinsic dimension after a fixed number of pre-training updates, at least in part explaining their extreme effectiveness. Lastly, we connect intrinsic dimensionality with low dimensional task representations and compression based generalization bounds to provide intrinsic-dimension-based generalization bounds that are independent of the full parameter count.

We address 2D floorplan reconstruction from 3D scans. Existing approaches typically employ heuristically designed multi-stage pipelines. Instead, we formulate floorplan reconstruction as a single-stage structured prediction task: find a variable-size set of polygons, which in turn are variable-length sequences of ordered vertices. To solve it we develop a novel Transformer architecture that generates polygons of multiple rooms in parallel, in a holistic manner without hand-crafted intermediate stages. The model features two-level queries for polygons and corners, and includes polygon matching to make the network end-to-end trainable. Our method achieves a new state-of-the-art for two challenging datasets, Structured3D and SceneCAD, along with significantly faster inference than previous methods. Moreover, it can readily be extended to predict additional information, i.e., semantic room types and architectural elements like doors and windows. Our code and models are available at: https://github.com/ywyue/RoomFormer.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Do transformers "think ahead" during inference at a given position? It is known transformers prepare information in the hidden states of the forward pass at t that is then used in future forward passes t+tau. We posit two explanations for this phenomenon: pre-caching, in which off-diagonal gradient terms present in training result in the model computing features at t irrelevant to the present inference task but useful for the future, and breadcrumbs, in which features most relevant to time step t are already the same as those that would most benefit inference at time t+tau. We test these hypotheses by training language models without propagating gradients to past timesteps, a scheme we formalize as myopic training. In a synthetic data setting, we find clear evidence for pre-caching. In the autoregressive language modeling setting, our experiments are more suggestive of the breadcrumbs hypothesis.

Self-supervised monocular depth estimation has been a subject of intense study in recent years, because of its applications in robotics and autonomous driving. Much of the recent work focuses on improving depth estimation by increasing architecture complexity. This paper shows that state-of-the-art performance can also be achieved by improving the learning process rather than increasing model complexity. More specifically, we propose (i) disregarding small potentially dynamic objects when training, and (ii) employing an appearance-based approach to separately estimate object pose for truly dynamic objects. We demonstrate that these simplifications reduce GPU memory usage by 29% and result in qualitatively and quantitatively improved depth maps. The code is available at https://github.com/kieran514/Dyna-DM.

Length extrapolation has attracted considerable attention recently since it allows transformers to be tested on longer sequences than those used in training. Previous research has shown that this property can be attained by using carefully designed Relative Positional Encodings (RPEs). While these methods perform well on a variety of corpora, the conditions for length extrapolation have yet to be investigated. This paper attempts to determine what types of RPEs allow for length extrapolation through a thorough mathematical and empirical analysis. We discover that a transformer is certain to possess this property as long as the series that corresponds to the RPE's exponential converges. Two practices are derived from the conditions and examined in language modeling tasks on a variety of corpora. As a bonus from the conditions, we derive a new Theoretical Receptive Field (TRF) to measure the receptive field of RPEs without taking any training steps. Extensive experiments are conducted on the Wikitext-103, Books, Github, and WikiBook datasets to demonstrate the viability of our discovered conditions. We also compare TRF to Empirical Receptive Field (ERF) across different models, showing consistently matched trends on the aforementioned datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/OpenNLPLab/Rpe.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio of stocks with the identification of proper weights of allocation to achieve the optimized values of return and risk. We present optimized portfolios based on the seven sectors of the Indian economy. The past prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are designed on the selected seven sectors. An LSTM regression model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Five months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on June 1, 2021, the actual and predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns indicate the very high accuracy of the LSTM model.

Self-supervised learning is a promising paradigm in deep learning that enables learning from unlabeled data by constructing pretext tasks that require learning useful representations. In natural language processing, the dominant pretext task has been masked language modeling (MLM), while in computer vision there exists an equivalent called Masked Image Modeling (MIM). However, MIM is challenging because it requires predicting semantic content in accurate locations. E.g, given an incomplete picture of a dog, we can guess that there is a tail, but we cannot determine its exact location. In this work, we propose FlexPredict, a stochastic model that addresses this challenge by incorporating location uncertainty into the model. Specifically, we condition the model on stochastic masked token positions to guide the model toward learning features that are more robust to location uncertainties. Our approach improves downstream performance on a range of tasks, e.g, compared to MIM baselines, FlexPredict boosts ImageNet linear probing by 1.6% with ViT-B and by 2.5% for semi-supervised video segmentation using ViT-L.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

There has been much interest in accurate cryptocurrency price forecast models by investors and researchers. Deep Learning models are prominent machine learning techniques that have transformed various fields and have shown potential for finance and economics. Although various deep learning models have been explored for cryptocurrency price forecasting, it is not clear which models are suitable due to high market volatility. In this study, we review the literature about deep learning for cryptocurrency price forecasting and evaluate novel deep learning models for cryptocurrency stock price prediction. Our deep learning models include variants of long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks, variants of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and the Transformer model. We evaluate univariate and multivariate approaches for multi-step ahead predicting of cryptocurrencies close-price. We also carry out volatility analysis on the four cryptocurrencies which reveals significant fluctuations in their prices throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we investigate the prediction accuracy of two scenarios identified by different training sets for the models. First, we use the pre-COVID-19 datasets to model cryptocurrency close-price forecasting during the early period of COVID-19. Secondly, we utilise data from the COVID-19 period to predict prices for 2023 to 2024. Our results show that the convolutional LSTM with a multivariate approach provides the best prediction accuracy in two major experimental settings. Our results also indicate that the multivariate deep learning models exhibit better performance in forecasting four different cryptocurrencies when compared to the univariate models.

The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction and performance is widely acknowledged, which highlights the importance of providing workers with next steps at the right time in their career. This task of predicting the next step in a career is known as career path prediction, and has diverse applications such as turnover prevention and internal job mobility. Existing methods to career path prediction rely on large amounts of private career history data to model the interactions between job titles and companies. We propose leveraging the unexplored textual descriptions that are part of work experience sections in resumes. We introduce a structured dataset of 2,164 anonymized career histories, annotated with ESCO occupation labels. Based on this dataset, we present a novel representation learning approach, CareerBERT, specifically designed for work history data. We develop a skill-based model and a text-based model for career path prediction, which achieve 35.24% and 39.61% recall@10 respectively on our dataset. Finally, we show that both approaches are complementary as a hybrid approach achieves the strongest result with 43.01% recall@10.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Transformers, currently the state-of-the-art in natural language understanding (NLU) tasks, are prone to generate uncalibrated predictions or extreme probabilities, making the process of taking different decisions based on their output relatively difficult. In this paper we propose to build several inductive Venn--ABERS predictors (IVAP), which are guaranteed to be well calibrated under minimal assumptions, based on a selection of pre-trained transformers. We test their performance over a set of diverse NLU tasks and show that they are capable of producing well-calibrated probabilistic predictions that are uniformly spread over the [0,1] interval -- all while retaining the original model's predictive accuracy.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Extent of resection after surgery is one of the main prognostic factors for patients diagnosed with glioblastoma. To achieve this, accurate segmentation and classification of residual tumor from post-operative MR images is essential. The current standard method for estimating it is subject to high inter- and intra-rater variability, and an automated method for segmentation of residual tumor in early post-operative MRI could lead to a more accurate estimation of extent of resection. In this study, two state-of-the-art neural network architectures for pre-operative segmentation were trained for the task. The models were extensively validated on a multicenter dataset with nearly 1000 patients, from 12 hospitals in Europe and the United States. The best performance achieved was a 61\% Dice score, and the best classification performance was about 80\% balanced accuracy, with a demonstrated ability to generalize across hospitals. In addition, the segmentation performance of the best models was on par with human expert raters. The predicted segmentations can be used to accurately classify the patients into those with residual tumor, and those with gross total resection.

Monocular depth estimation is an ill-posed problem as the same 2D image can be projected from infinite 3D scenes. Although the leading algorithms in this field have reported significant improvement, they are essentially geared to the particular compound of pictorial observations and camera parameters (i.e., intrinsics and extrinsics), strongly limiting their generalizability in real-world scenarios. To cope with this challenge, this paper proposes a novel ground embedding module to decouple camera parameters from pictorial cues, thus promoting the generalization capability. Given camera parameters, the proposed module generates the ground depth, which is stacked with the input image and referenced in the final depth prediction. A ground attention is designed in the module to optimally combine ground depth with residual depth. Our ground embedding is highly flexible and lightweight, leading to a plug-in module that is amenable to be integrated into various depth estimation networks. Experiments reveal that our approach achieves the state-of-the-art results on popular benchmarks, and more importantly, renders significant generalization improvement on a wide range of cross-domain tests.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performances across a wide range of tasks. However, the mechanisms by which these models encode tasks of varying complexities remain poorly understood. In this paper, we explore the hypothesis that LLMs process concepts of varying complexities in different layers, introducing the idea of "Concept Depth" to suggest that more complex concepts are typically acquired in deeper layers. Specifically, we categorize concepts based on their level of abstraction, defining them in the order of increasing complexity within factual, emotional, and inferential tasks. We conduct extensive probing experiments using layer-wise representations across various LLM families (Gemma, LLaMA, QWen) on various datasets spanning the three domains of tasks. Our findings reveal that models could efficiently conduct probing for simpler tasks in shallow layers, and more complex tasks typically necessitate deeper layers for accurate understanding. Additionally, we examine how external factors, such as adding noise to the input and quantizing the model weights, might affect layer-wise representations. Our findings suggest that these factors can impede the development of a conceptual understanding of LLMs until deeper layers are explored. We hope that our proposed concept and experimental insights will enhance the understanding of the mechanisms underlying LLMs. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Luckfort/CD.

Transformers demonstrate impressive performance on a range of reasoning benchmarks. To evaluate the degree to which these abilities are a result of actual reasoning, existing work has focused on developing sophisticated benchmarks for behavioral studies. However, these studies do not provide insights into the internal mechanisms driving the observed capabilities. To improve our understanding of the internal mechanisms of transformers, we present a comprehensive mechanistic analysis of a transformer trained on a synthetic reasoning task. We identify a set of interpretable mechanisms the model uses to solve the task, and validate our findings using correlational and causal evidence. Our results suggest that it implements a depth-bounded recurrent mechanisms that operates in parallel and stores intermediate results in selected token positions. We anticipate that the motifs we identified in our synthetic setting can provide valuable insights into the broader operating principles of transformers and thus provide a basis for understanding more complex models.

There has been great success recently in tackling challenging NLP tasks by neural networks which have been pre-trained and fine-tuned on large amounts of task data. In this paper, we investigate one such model, BERT for question-answering, with the aim to analyze why it is able to achieve significantly better results than other models. We run DeepLIFT on the model predictions and test the outcomes to monitor shift in the attention values for input. We also cluster the results to analyze any possible patterns similar to human reasoning depending on the kind of input paragraph and question the model is trying to answer.

A Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) was used to perform video frame prediction of microbial growth for a population of two mutants of Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The RNN was trained on videos of 20 frames that were acquired using fluorescence microscopy and microfluidics. The network predicted the last 10 frames of each video, and the accuracy's of the predictions was assessed by comparing raw images, population curves, and the number and size of individual colonies. Overall, we found the predictions to be accurate using this approach. The implications this result has on designing autonomous experiments in microbiology, and the steps that can be taken to make the predictions even more accurate, are discussed.

Playlists have become a significant part of our listening experience because of the digital cloud-based services such as Spotify, Pandora, Apple Music. Owing to the meteoric rise in the usage of playlists, recommending playlists is crucial to music services today. Although there has been a lot of work done in playlist prediction, the area of playlist representation hasn't received that level of attention. Over the last few years, sequence-to-sequence models, especially in the field of natural language processing, have shown the effectiveness of learned embeddings in capturing the semantic characteristics of sequences. We can apply similar concepts to music to learn fixed length representations for playlists and use those representations for downstream tasks such as playlist discovery, browsing, and recommendation. In this work, we formulate the problem of learning a fixed-length playlist representation in an unsupervised manner, using Sequence-to-sequence (Seq2seq) models, interpreting playlists as sentences and songs as words. We compare our model with two other encoding architectures for baseline comparison. We evaluate our work using the suite of tasks commonly used for assessing sentence embeddings, along with a few additional tasks pertaining to music, and a recommendation task to study the traits captured by the playlist embeddings and their effectiveness for the purpose of music recommendation.

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

We investigate methods for combining multiple self-supervised tasks--i.e., supervised tasks where data can be collected without manual labeling--in order to train a single visual representation. First, we provide an apples-to-apples comparison of four different self-supervised tasks using the very deep ResNet-101 architecture. We then combine tasks to jointly train a network. We also explore lasso regularization to encourage the network to factorize the information in its representation, and methods for "harmonizing" network inputs in order to learn a more unified representation. We evaluate all methods on ImageNet classification, PASCAL VOC detection, and NYU depth prediction. Our results show that deeper networks work better, and that combining tasks--even via a naive multi-head architecture--always improves performance. Our best joint network nearly matches the PASCAL performance of a model pre-trained on ImageNet classification, and matches the ImageNet network on NYU depth prediction.

Predicting future stock prices and their movement patterns is a complex problem. Hence, building a portfolio of capital assets using the predicted prices to achieve the optimization between its return and risk is an even more difficult task. This work has carried out an analysis of the time series of the historical prices of the top five stocks from the nine different sectors of the Indian stock market from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are built for each of these sectors. For predicting future stock prices, a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) model is also designed and fine-tuned. After five months of the portfolio construction, the actual and the predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns of each portfolio are found to be high, indicating the high precision of the LSTM model.

We present a new dataset, dedicated to the development of simultaneous localization and mapping methods for underwater vehicles navigating close to the seabed. The data sequences composing this dataset are recorded in three different environments: a harbor at a depth of a few meters, a first archaeological site at a depth of 270 meters and a second site at a depth of 380 meters. The data acquisition is performed using Remotely Operated Vehicles equipped with a monocular monochromatic camera, a low-cost inertial measurement unit, a pressure sensor and a computing unit, all embedded in a single enclosure. The sensors' measurements are recorded synchronously on the computing unit and seventeen sequences have been created from all the acquired data. These sequences are made available in the form of ROS bags and as raw data. For each sequence, a trajectory has also been computed offline using a Structure-from-Motion library in order to allow the comparison with real-time localization methods. With the release of this dataset, we wish to provide data difficult to acquire and to encourage the development of vision-based localization methods dedicated to the underwater environment. The dataset can be downloaded from: http://www.lirmm.fr/aqualoc/

A central goal of sequence modeling is designing a single principled model that can address sequence data across a range of modalities and tasks, particularly on long-range dependencies. Although conventional models including RNNs, CNNs, and Transformers have specialized variants for capturing long dependencies, they still struggle to scale to very long sequences of 10000 or more steps. A promising recent approach proposed modeling sequences by simulating the fundamental state space model (SSM) \( x'(t) = Ax(t) + Bu(t), y(t) = Cx(t) + Du(t) \), and showed that for appropriate choices of the state matrix \( A \), this system could handle long-range dependencies mathematically and empirically. However, this method has prohibitive computation and memory requirements, rendering it infeasible as a general sequence modeling solution. We propose the Structured State Space sequence model (S4) based on a new parameterization for the SSM, and show that it can be computed much more efficiently than prior approaches while preserving their theoretical strengths. Our technique involves conditioning \( A \) with a low-rank correction, allowing it to be diagonalized stably and reducing the SSM to the well-studied computation of a Cauchy kernel. S4 achieves strong empirical results across a diverse range of established benchmarks, including (i) 91\% accuracy on sequential CIFAR-10 with no data augmentation or auxiliary losses, on par with a larger 2-D ResNet, (ii) substantially closing the gap to Transformers on image and language modeling tasks, while performing generation 60times faster (iii) SoTA on every task from the Long Range Arena benchmark, including solving the challenging Path-X task of length 16k that all prior work fails on, while being as efficient as all competitors.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

We present a method for detecting objects in images using a single deep neural network. Our approach, named SSD, discretizes the output space of bounding boxes into a set of default boxes over different aspect ratios and scales per feature map location. At prediction time, the network generates scores for the presence of each object category in each default box and produces adjustments to the box to better match the object shape. Additionally, the network combines predictions from multiple feature maps with different resolutions to naturally handle objects of various sizes. Our SSD model is simple relative to methods that require object proposals because it completely eliminates proposal generation and subsequent pixel or feature resampling stage and encapsulates all computation in a single network. This makes SSD easy to train and straightforward to integrate into systems that require a detection component. Experimental results on the PASCAL VOC, MS COCO, and ILSVRC datasets confirm that SSD has comparable accuracy to methods that utilize an additional object proposal step and is much faster, while providing a unified framework for both training and inference. Compared to other single stage methods, SSD has much better accuracy, even with a smaller input image size. For 300times 300 input, SSD achieves 72.1% mAP on VOC2007 test at 58 FPS on a Nvidia Titan X and for 500times 500 input, SSD achieves 75.1% mAP, outperforming a comparable state of the art Faster R-CNN model. Code is available at https://github.com/weiliu89/caffe/tree/ssd .

Designing robust systems for precise prediction of future prices of stocks has always been considered a very challenging research problem. Even more challenging is to build a system for constructing an optimum portfolio of stocks based on the forecasted future stock prices. We present a deep learning-based regression model built on a long-and-short-term memory network (LSTM) network that automatically scraps the web and extracts historical stock prices based on a stock's ticker name for a specified pair of start and end dates, and forecasts the future stock prices. We deploy the model on 75 significant stocks chosen from 15 critical sectors of the Indian stock market. For each of the stocks, the model is evaluated for its forecast accuracy. Moreover, the predicted values of the stock prices are used as the basis for investment decisions, and the returns on the investments are computed. Extensive results are presented on the performance of the model. The analysis of the results demonstrates the efficacy and effectiveness of the system and enables us to compare the profitability of the sectors from the point of view of the investors in the stock market.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

Humans can easily understand a single image as depicting multiple potential objects permitting interaction. We use this skill to plan our interactions with the world and accelerate understanding new objects without engaging in interaction. In this paper, we would like to endow machines with the similar ability, so that intelligent agents can better explore the 3D scene or manipulate objects. Our approach is a transformer-based model that predicts the 3D location, physical properties and affordance of objects. To power this model, we collect a dataset with Internet videos, egocentric videos and indoor images to train and validate our approach. Our model yields strong performance on our data, and generalizes well to robotics data.

Deep learning has been actively applied to time series forecasting, leading to a deluge of new methods, belonging to the class of historical-value models. Yet, despite the attractive properties of time-index models, such as being able to model the continuous nature of underlying time series dynamics, little attention has been given to them. Indeed, while naive deep time-index models are far more expressive than the manually predefined function representations of classical time-index models, they are inadequate for forecasting, being unable to generalize to unseen time steps due to the lack of inductive bias. In this paper, we propose DeepTime, a meta-optimization framework to learn deep time-index models which overcome these limitations, yielding an efficient and accurate forecasting model. Extensive experiments on real world datasets in the long sequence time-series forecasting setting demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art methods, and is highly efficient. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/DeepTime.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

While the problem of hallucinations in neural machine translation has long been recognized, so far the progress on its alleviation is very little. Indeed, recently it turned out that without artificially encouraging models to hallucinate, previously existing methods fall short and even the standard sequence log-probability is more informative. It means that characteristics internal to the model can give much more information than we expect, and before using external models and measures, we first need to ask: how far can we go if we use nothing but the translation model itself ? We propose to use a method that evaluates the percentage of the source contribution to a generated translation. Intuitively, hallucinations are translations "detached" from the source, hence they can be identified by low source contribution. This method improves detection accuracy for the most severe hallucinations by a factor of 2 and is able to alleviate hallucinations at test time on par with the previous best approach that relies on external models. Next, if we move away from internal model characteristics and allow external tools, we show that using sentence similarity from cross-lingual embeddings further improves these results.

Large language models (LLMs) have been widely employed across various application domains, yet their black-box nature poses significant challenges to understanding how these models process input data internally to make predictions. In this paper, we introduce a precise and quantitative law that governs the learning of contextualized token embeddings through intermediate layers in pre-trained LLMs for next-token prediction. Our findings reveal that each layer contributes equally to enhancing prediction accuracy, from the lowest to the highest layer -- a universal phenomenon observed across a diverse array of open-source LLMs, built on architectures such as Transformer, RWKV, and Mamba. We demonstrate that this law offers new perspectives and insights to inform and guide practices in LLM development and applications, including model scaling, pre-training tasks, and information flow. Overall, our law enables more fine-grained approaches to the design, training, and interpretation of LLMs through scrutinizing their internal data processing mechanisms.

Prompts play a critical role in unleashing the power of language and vision foundation models for specific tasks. For the first time, we introduce prompting into depth foundation models, creating a new paradigm for metric depth estimation termed Prompt Depth Anything. Specifically, we use a low-cost LiDAR as the prompt to guide the Depth Anything model for accurate metric depth output, achieving up to 4K resolution. Our approach centers on a concise prompt fusion design that integrates the LiDAR at multiple scales within the depth decoder. To address training challenges posed by limited datasets containing both LiDAR depth and precise GT depth, we propose a scalable data pipeline that includes synthetic data LiDAR simulation and real data pseudo GT depth generation. Our approach sets new state-of-the-arts on the ARKitScenes and ScanNet++ datasets and benefits downstream applications, including 3D reconstruction and generalized robotic grasping.

Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates 'base factors', such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with 'external factors', including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a 'Hold' option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools.

Memorization, or the tendency of large language models (LLMs) to output entire sequences from their training data verbatim, is a key concern for safely deploying language models. In particular, it is vital to minimize a model's memorization of sensitive datapoints such as those containing personal identifiable information (PII). The prevalence of such undesirable memorization can pose issues for model trainers, and may even require discarding an otherwise functional model. We therefore seek to predict which sequences will be memorized before a large model's full train-time by extrapolating the memorization behavior of lower-compute trial runs. We measure memorization of the Pythia model suite and plot scaling laws for forecasting memorization, allowing us to provide equi-compute recommendations to maximize the reliability (recall) of such predictions. We additionally provide further novel discoveries on the distribution of memorization scores across models and data. We release all code and data necessary to reproduce the results in this paper at https://github.com/EleutherAI/pythia

Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, including quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inherent limitation of the encoder-decoder architecture. To address these issues, we design an efficient transformer-based model for LSTF, named Informer, with three distinctive characteristics: (i) a ProbSparse self-attention mechanism, which achieves O(L log L) in time complexity and memory usage, and has comparable performance on sequences' dependency alignment. (ii) the self-attention distilling highlights dominating attention by halving cascading layer input, and efficiently handles extreme long input sequences. (iii) the generative style decoder, while conceptually simple, predicts the long time-series sequences at one forward operation rather than a step-by-step way, which drastically improves the inference speed of long-sequence predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets demonstrate that Informer significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to the LSTF problem.

We introduce a new neural architecture to learn the conditional probability of an output sequence with elements that are discrete tokens corresponding to positions in an input sequence. Such problems cannot be trivially addressed by existent approaches such as sequence-to-sequence and Neural Turing Machines, because the number of target classes in each step of the output depends on the length of the input, which is variable. Problems such as sorting variable sized sequences, and various combinatorial optimization problems belong to this class. Our model solves the problem of variable size output dictionaries using a recently proposed mechanism of neural attention. It differs from the previous attention attempts in that, instead of using attention to blend hidden units of an encoder to a context vector at each decoder step, it uses attention as a pointer to select a member of the input sequence as the output. We call this architecture a Pointer Net (Ptr-Net). We show Ptr-Nets can be used to learn approximate solutions to three challenging geometric problems -- finding planar convex hulls, computing Delaunay triangulations, and the planar Travelling Salesman Problem -- using training examples alone. Ptr-Nets not only improve over sequence-to-sequence with input attention, but also allow us to generalize to variable size output dictionaries. We show that the learnt models generalize beyond the maximum lengths they were trained on. We hope our results on these tasks will encourage a broader exploration of neural learning for discrete problems.

Fill-in-the-Middle (FIM) has become integral to code language models, enabling generation of missing code given both left and right contexts. However, the current FIM training paradigm, which reorders original training sequences and then performs regular next-token prediction (NTP), often leads to models struggling to generate content that aligns smoothly with the surrounding context. Crucially, while existing works rely on rule-based post-processing to circumvent this weakness, such methods are not practically usable in open-domain code completion tasks as they depend on restrictive, dataset-specific assumptions (e.g., generating the same number of lines as in the ground truth). Moreover, model performance on FIM tasks deteriorates significantly without these unrealistic assumptions. We hypothesize that NTP alone is insufficient for models to learn effective planning conditioned on the distant right context, a critical factor for successful code infilling. To overcome this, we propose Horizon-Length Prediction (HLP), a novel training objective that teaches models to predict the number of remaining middle tokens (i.e., horizon length) at each step. HLP advances FIM with lookahead planning, enabling models to inherently learn infilling boundaries for arbitrary left and right contexts without relying on dataset-specific post-processing. Our evaluation across different models and sizes shows that HLP significantly improves FIM performance by up to 24% relatively on diverse benchmarks, across file-level and repository-level, and without resorting to unrealistic post-processing methods. Furthermore, the enhanced planning capability gained through HLP boosts model performance on code reasoning. Importantly, HLP only incurs negligible training overhead and no additional inference cost, ensuring its practicality for real-world scenarios.

Assessing the complexity of functions computed by a neural network helps us understand how the network will learn and generalize. One natural measure of complexity is how the network distorts length - if the network takes a unit-length curve as input, what is the length of the resulting curve of outputs? It has been widely believed that this length grows exponentially in network depth. We prove that in fact this is not the case: the expected length distortion does not grow with depth, and indeed shrinks slightly, for ReLU networks with standard random initialization. We also generalize this result by proving upper bounds both for higher moments of the length distortion and for the distortion of higher-dimensional volumes. These theoretical results are corroborated by our experiments.

This paper surveys and organizes research works in a new paradigm in natural language processing, which we dub "prompt-based learning". Unlike traditional supervised learning, which trains a model to take in an input x and predict an output y as P(y|x), prompt-based learning is based on language models that model the probability of text directly. To use these models to perform prediction tasks, the original input x is modified using a template into a textual string prompt x' that has some unfilled slots, and then the language model is used to probabilistically fill the unfilled information to obtain a final string x, from which the final output y can be derived. This framework is powerful and attractive for a number of reasons: it allows the language model to be pre-trained on massive amounts of raw text, and by defining a new prompting function the model is able to perform few-shot or even zero-shot learning, adapting to new scenarios with few or no labeled data. In this paper we introduce the basics of this promising paradigm, describe a unified set of mathematical notations that can cover a wide variety of existing work, and organize existing work along several dimensions, e.g.the choice of pre-trained models, prompts, and tuning strategies. To make the field more accessible to interested beginners, we not only make a systematic review of existing works and a highly structured typology of prompt-based concepts, but also release other resources, e.g., a website http://pretrain.nlpedia.ai/ including constantly-updated survey, and paperlist.

Models that can simulate how environments change in response to actions can be used by agents to plan and act efficiently. We improve on previous environment simulators from high-dimensional pixel observations by introducing recurrent neural networks that are able to make temporally and spatially coherent predictions for hundreds of time-steps into the future. We present an in-depth analysis of the factors affecting performance, providing the most extensive attempt to advance the understanding of the properties of these models. We address the issue of computationally inefficiency with a model that does not need to generate a high-dimensional image at each time-step. We show that our approach can be used to improve exploration and is adaptable to many diverse environments, namely 10 Atari games, a 3D car racing environment, and complex 3D mazes.

The study of jet-inflated X-ray cavities provides a powerful insight into the energetics of hot galactic atmospheres and radio-mechanical AGN feedback. By estimating the volumes of X-ray cavities, the total energy and thus also the corresponding mechanical jet power required for their inflation can be derived. Properly estimating their total extent is, however, non-trivial, prone to biases, nearly impossible for poor-quality data, and so far has been done manually by scientists. We present a novel and automated machine-learning pipeline called Cavity Detection Tool (CADET), developed to detect and estimate the sizes of X-ray cavities from raw Chandra images. The pipeline consists of a convolutional neural network trained for producing pixel-wise cavity predictions and a DBSCAN clustering algorithm, which decomposes the predictions into individual cavities. The convolutional network was trained using mock observations of early-type galaxies simulated to resemble real noisy Chandra-like images. The network's performance has been tested on simulated data obtaining an average cavity volume error of 14 % at an 89 % true-positive rate. For simulated images without any X-ray cavities inserted, we obtain a 5 % false-positive rate. When applied to real Chandra images, the pipeline recovered 91 out of 100 previously known X-ray cavities in nearby early-type galaxies and all 14 cavities in chosen galaxy clusters. Besides that, the CADET pipeline discovered 8 new cavity pairs in atmospheres of early-type galaxies and galaxy clusters (IC4765, NGC533, NGC2300, NGC3091, NGC4073, NGC4125, NGC4472, NGC5129) and a number of potential cavity candidates.

Benefiting from large-scale vision-language pre-training on image-text pairs, open-world detection methods have shown superior generalization ability under the zero-shot or few-shot detection settings. However, a pre-defined category space is still required during the inference stage of existing methods and only the objects belonging to that space will be predicted. To introduce a "real" open-world detector, in this paper, we propose a novel method named CapDet to either predict under a given category list or directly generate the category of predicted bounding boxes. Specifically, we unify the open-world detection and dense caption tasks into a single yet effective framework by introducing an additional dense captioning head to generate the region-grounded captions. Besides, adding the captioning task will in turn benefit the generalization of detection performance since the captioning dataset covers more concepts. Experiment results show that by unifying the dense caption task, our CapDet has obtained significant performance improvements (e.g., +2.1% mAP on LVIS rare classes) over the baseline method on LVIS (1203 classes). Besides, our CapDet also achieves state-of-the-art performance on dense captioning tasks, e.g., 15.44% mAP on VG V1.2 and 13.98% on the VG-COCO dataset.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence that insights from other domains of artificial intelligence can be effectively applied to time series analysis. We conclude that large-scale time series models offer an exciting opportunity to democratize access to precise predictions and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the capabilities of contemporary advancements in deep learning.

We compare the fast training and decoding speed of RETURNN of attention models for translation, due to fast CUDA LSTM kernels, and a fast pure TensorFlow beam search decoder. We show that a layer-wise pretraining scheme for recurrent attention models gives over 1% BLEU improvement absolute and it allows to train deeper recurrent encoder networks. Promising preliminary results on max. expected BLEU training are presented. We are able to train state-of-the-art models for translation and end-to-end models for speech recognition and show results on WMT 2017 and Switchboard. The flexibility of RETURNN allows a fast research feedback loop to experiment with alternative architectures, and its generality allows to use it on a wide range of applications.

We present RelBench, a public benchmark for solving predictive tasks over relational databases with graph neural networks. RelBench provides databases and tasks spanning diverse domains and scales, and is intended to be a foundational infrastructure for future research. We use RelBench to conduct the first comprehensive study of Relational Deep Learning (RDL) (Fey et al., 2024), which combines graph neural network predictive models with (deep) tabular models that extract initial entity-level representations from raw tables. End-to-end learned RDL models fully exploit the predictive signal encoded in primary-foreign key links, marking a significant shift away from the dominant paradigm of manual feature engineering combined with tabular models. To thoroughly evaluate RDL against this prior gold-standard, we conduct an in-depth user study where an experienced data scientist manually engineers features for each task. In this study, RDL learns better models whilst reducing human work needed by more than an order of magnitude. This demonstrates the power of deep learning for solving predictive tasks over relational databases, opening up many new research opportunities enabled by RelBench.

The Transformer is an extremely powerful and prominent deep learning architecture. In this work, we challenge the commonly held belief in deep learning that going deeper is better, and show an alternative design approach that is building wider attention Transformers. We demonstrate that wide single layer Transformer models can compete with or outperform deeper ones in a variety of Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks when both are trained from scratch. The impact of changing the model aspect ratio on Transformers is then studied systematically. This ratio balances the number of layers and the number of attention heads per layer while keeping the total number of attention heads and all other hyperparameters constant. On average, across 4 NLP tasks and 10 attention types, single layer wide models perform 0.3% better than their deep counterparts. We show an in-depth evaluation and demonstrate how wide models require a far smaller memory footprint and can run faster on commodity hardware, in addition, these wider models are also more interpretable. For example, a single layer Transformer on the IMDb byte level text classification has 3.1x faster inference latency on a CPU than its equally accurate deeper counterpart, and is half the size. We therefore put forward wider and shallower models as a viable and desirable alternative for small models on NLP tasks, and as an important area of research for domains beyond this.

The success of machine learning algorithms generally depends on data representation, and we hypothesize that this is because different representations can entangle and hide more or less the different explanatory factors of variation behind the data. Although specific domain knowledge can be used to help design representations, learning with generic priors can also be used, and the quest for AI is motivating the design of more powerful representation-learning algorithms implementing such priors. This paper reviews recent work in the area of unsupervised feature learning and deep learning, covering advances in probabilistic models, auto-encoders, manifold learning, and deep networks. This motivates longer-term unanswered questions about the appropriate objectives for learning good representations, for computing representations (i.e., inference), and the geometrical connections between representation learning, density estimation and manifold learning.

Deep learning techniques have been explored within the marine litter problem for approximately 20 years but the majority of the research has developed rapidly in the last five years. We provide an in-depth, up to date, summary and analysis of 28 of the most recent and significant contributions of deep learning in marine debris. From cross referencing the research paper results, the YOLO family significantly outperforms all other methods of object detection but there are many respected contributions to this field that have categorically agreed that a comprehensive database of underwater debris is not currently available for machine learning. Using a small dataset curated and labelled by us, we tested YOLOv5 on a binary classification task and found the accuracy was low and the rate of false positives was high; highlighting the importance of a comprehensive database. We conclude this survey with over 40 future research recommendations and open challenges.

Language model pretraining involves training on extensive corpora, where data quality plays a pivotal role. In this work, we aim to directly estimate the contribution of data during pretraining and select pretraining data in an efficient manner. Specifically, we draw inspiration from recent findings showing that compression efficiency (i.e., the normalized loss) of diverse models on certain text correlates strongly with their downstream performance, when the text domain aligns with the downstream benchmark (Huang et al., 2024). Building on this observation, we hypothesize that data on which model losses are predictive of downstream abilities also contribute effectively to learning. To leverage this insight, we introduce data selection based on data's Predictive strength (Preselect), a lightweight and efficient data selection method that requires training and deploying only a fastText-based scorer. Through comprehensive experiments with 1B and 3B parameter models, we demonstrate that models trained on 30B tokens selected with PreSelect surpasses the performance of a vanilla baseline trained on 300B tokens, achieving a 10x reduction in compute requirements. Furthermore, PreSelect significantly outperforms other competitive data selection baselines, such as DCLM and FineWeb-Edu on a scale of 3B models trained on 100B tokens. We open-source our trained data selection scorer along with the curated datasets at https://github.com/hkust-nlp/PreSelect.

We introduce NeuralProphet, a successor to Facebook Prophet, which set an industry standard for explainable, scalable, and user-friendly forecasting frameworks. With the proliferation of time series data, explainable forecasting remains a challenging task for business and operational decision making. Hybrid solutions are needed to bridge the gap between interpretable classical methods and scalable deep learning models. We view Prophet as a precursor to such a solution. However, Prophet lacks local context, which is essential for forecasting the near-term future and is challenging to extend due to its Stan backend. NeuralProphet is a hybrid forecasting framework based on PyTorch and trained with standard deep learning methods, making it easy for developers to extend the framework. Local context is introduced with auto-regression and covariate modules, which can be configured as classical linear regression or as Neural Networks. Otherwise, NeuralProphet retains the design philosophy of Prophet and provides the same basic model components. Our results demonstrate that NeuralProphet produces interpretable forecast components of equivalent or superior quality to Prophet on a set of generated time series. NeuralProphet outperforms Prophet on a diverse collection of real-world datasets. For short to medium-term forecasts, NeuralProphet improves forecast accuracy by 55 to 92 percent.

Length extrapolation algorithms based on Rotary position embedding (RoPE) have shown promising results in extending the context length of language models. However, understanding how position embedding can capture longer-range contextual information remains elusive. Based on the intuition that different dimensions correspond to different frequency of changes in RoPE encoding, we conducted a dimension-level analysis to investigate the correlation between a hidden dimension of an attention head and its contribution to capturing long-distance dependencies. Using our correlation metric, we identified a particular type of attention heads, which we named Positional Heads, from various length-extrapolated models. These heads exhibit a strong focus on long-range information interaction and play a pivotal role in long input processing, as evidence by our ablation. We further demonstrate the correlation between the efficiency of length extrapolation and the extension of the high-dimensional attention allocation of these heads. The identification of Positional Heads provides insights for future research in long-text comprehension.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Gaussian splatting and single/multi-view depth estimation are typically studied in isolation. In this paper, we present DepthSplat to connect Gaussian splatting and depth estimation and study their interactions. More specifically, we first contribute a robust multi-view depth model by leveraging pre-trained monocular depth features, leading to high-quality feed-forward 3D Gaussian splatting reconstructions. We also show that Gaussian splatting can serve as an unsupervised pre-training objective for learning powerful depth models from large-scale unlabelled datasets. We validate the synergy between Gaussian splatting and depth estimation through extensive ablation and cross-task transfer experiments. Our DepthSplat achieves state-of-the-art performance on ScanNet, RealEstate10K and DL3DV datasets in terms of both depth estimation and novel view synthesis, demonstrating the mutual benefits of connecting both tasks. Our code, models, and video results are available at https://haofeixu.github.io/depthsplat/.

Current deep learning methods are regarded as favorable if they empirically perform well on dedicated test sets. This mentality is seamlessly reflected in the resurfacing area of continual learning, where consecutively arriving data is investigated. The core challenge is framed as protecting previously acquired representations from being catastrophically forgotten. However, comparison of individual methods is nevertheless performed in isolation from the real world by monitoring accumulated benchmark test set performance. The closed world assumption remains predominant, i.e. models are evaluated on data that is guaranteed to originate from the same distribution as used for training. This poses a massive challenge as neural networks are well known to provide overconfident false predictions on unknown and corrupted instances. In this work we critically survey the literature and argue that notable lessons from open set recognition, identifying unknown examples outside of the observed set, and the adjacent field of active learning, querying data to maximize the expected performance gain, are frequently overlooked in the deep learning era. Hence, we propose a consolidated view to bridge continual learning, active learning and open set recognition in deep neural networks. Finally, the established synergies are supported empirically, showing joint improvement in alleviating catastrophic forgetting, querying data, selecting task orders, while exhibiting robust open world application.

Deep learning has proven itself as a successful set of models for learning useful semantic representations of data. These, however, are mostly implicitly learned as part of a classification task. In this paper we propose the triplet network model, which aims to learn useful representations by distance comparisons. A similar model was defined by Wang et al. (2014), tailor made for learning a ranking for image information retrieval. Here we demonstrate using various datasets that our model learns a better representation than that of its immediate competitor, the Siamese network. We also discuss future possible usage as a framework for unsupervised learning.

While the successes of transformers across many domains are indisputable, accurate understanding of the learning mechanics is still largely lacking. Their capabilities have been probed on benchmarks which include a variety of structured and reasoning tasks -- but mathematical understanding is lagging substantially behind. Recent lines of work have begun studying representational aspects of this question: that is, the size/depth/complexity of attention-based networks to perform certain tasks. However, there is no guarantee the learning dynamics will converge to the constructions proposed. In our paper, we provide fine-grained mechanistic understanding of how transformers learn "semantic structure", understood as capturing co-occurrence structure of words. Precisely, we show, through a combination of experiments on synthetic data modeled by Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), Wikipedia data, and mathematical analysis that the embedding layer and the self-attention layer encode the topical structure. In the former case, this manifests as higher average inner product of embeddings between same-topic words. In the latter, it manifests as higher average pairwise attention between same-topic words. The mathematical results involve several assumptions to make the analysis tractable, which we verify on data, and might be of independent interest as well.

This work presents AstroPT, an autoregressive pretrained transformer developed with astronomical use-cases in mind. The AstroPT models presented here have been pretrained on 8.6 million 512 times 512 pixel grz-band galaxy postage stamp observations from the DESI Legacy Survey DR8. We train a selection of foundation models of increasing size from 1 million to 2.1 billion parameters, and find that AstroPT follows a similar saturating log-log scaling law to textual models. We also find that the models' performances on downstream tasks as measured by linear probing improves with model size up to the model parameter saturation point. We believe that collaborative community development paves the best route towards realising an open source `Large Observation Model' -- a model trained on data taken from the observational sciences at the scale seen in natural language processing. To this end, we release the source code, weights, and dataset for AstroPT under the MIT license, and invite potential collaborators to join us in collectively building and researching these models.

LLMs have revolutionized the field of artificial intelligence and have emerged as the de-facto tool for many tasks. The current established technology of LLMs is to process input and generate output at the token level. This is in sharp contrast to humans who operate at multiple levels of abstraction, well beyond single words, to analyze information and to generate creative content. In this paper, we present an attempt at an architecture which operates on an explicit higher-level semantic representation, which we name a concept. Concepts are language- and modality-agnostic and represent a higher level idea or action in a flow. Hence, we build a "Large Concept Model". In this study, as proof of feasibility, we assume that a concept corresponds to a sentence, and use an existing sentence embedding space, SONAR, which supports up to 200 languages in both text and speech modalities. The Large Concept Model is trained to perform autoregressive sentence prediction in an embedding space. We explore multiple approaches, namely MSE regression, variants of diffusion-based generation, and models operating in a quantized SONAR space. These explorations are performed using 1.6B parameter models and training data in the order of 1.3T tokens. We then scale one architecture to a model size of 7B parameters and training data of about 2.7T tokens. We perform an experimental evaluation on several generative tasks, namely summarization and a new task of summary expansion. Finally, we show that our model exhibits impressive zero-shot generalization performance to many languages, outperforming existing LLMs of the same size. The training code of our models is freely available.

Latent factor models are the driving forces of the state-of-the-art recommender systems, with an important insight of vectorizing raw input features into dense embeddings. The dimensions of different feature embeddings are often set to a same value empirically, which limits the predictive performance of latent factor models. Existing works have proposed heuristic or reinforcement learning-based methods to search for mixed feature embedding dimensions. For efficiency concern, these methods typically choose embedding dimensions from a restricted set of candidate dimensions. However, this restriction will hurt the flexibility of dimension selection, leading to suboptimal performance of search results. In this paper, we propose Differentiable Neural Input Search (DNIS), a method that searches for mixed feature embedding dimensions in a more flexible space through continuous relaxation and differentiable optimization. The key idea is to introduce a soft selection layer that controls the significance of each embedding dimension, and optimize this layer according to model's validation performance. DNIS is model-agnostic and thus can be seamlessly incorporated with existing latent factor models for recommendation. We conduct experiments with various architectures of latent factor models on three public real-world datasets for rating prediction, Click-Through-Rate (CTR) prediction, and top-k item recommendation. The results demonstrate that our method achieves the best predictive performance compared with existing neural input search approaches with fewer embedding parameters and less time cost.

Conventional wisdom suggests that neural network predictions tend to be unpredictable and overconfident when faced with out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Our work reassesses this assumption for neural networks with high-dimensional inputs. Rather than extrapolating in arbitrary ways, we observe that neural network predictions often tend towards a constant value as input data becomes increasingly OOD. Moreover, we find that this value often closely approximates the optimal constant solution (OCS), i.e., the prediction that minimizes the average loss over the training data without observing the input. We present results showing this phenomenon across 8 datasets with different distributional shifts (including CIFAR10-C and ImageNet-R, S), different loss functions (cross entropy, MSE, and Gaussian NLL), and different architectures (CNNs and transformers). Furthermore, we present an explanation for this behavior, which we first validate empirically and then study theoretically in a simplified setting involving deep homogeneous networks with ReLU activations. Finally, we show how one can leverage our insights in practice to enable risk-sensitive decision-making in the presence of OOD inputs.

We investigate the emergence of intuitive physics understanding in general-purpose deep neural network models trained to predict masked regions in natural videos. Leveraging the violation-of-expectation framework, we find that video prediction models trained to predict outcomes in a learned representation space demonstrate an understanding of various intuitive physics properties, such as object permanence and shape consistency. In contrast, video prediction in pixel space and multimodal large language models, which reason through text, achieve performance closer to chance. Our comparisons of these architectures reveal that jointly learning an abstract representation space while predicting missing parts of sensory input, akin to predictive coding, is sufficient to acquire an understanding of intuitive physics, and that even models trained on one week of unique video achieve above chance performance. This challenges the idea that core knowledge -- a set of innate systems to help understand the world -- needs to be hardwired to develop an understanding of intuitive physics.

We introduce D-FINE, a powerful real-time object detector that achieves outstanding localization precision by redefining the bounding box regression task in DETR models. D-FINE comprises two key components: Fine-grained Distribution Refinement (FDR) and Global Optimal Localization Self-Distillation (GO-LSD). FDR transforms the regression process from predicting fixed coordinates to iteratively refining probability distributions, providing a fine-grained intermediate representation that significantly enhances localization accuracy. GO-LSD is a bidirectional optimization strategy that transfers localization knowledge from refined distributions to shallower layers through self-distillation, while also simplifying the residual prediction tasks for deeper layers. Additionally, D-FINE incorporates lightweight optimizations in computationally intensive modules and operations, achieving a better balance between speed and accuracy. Specifically, D-FINE-L / X achieves 54.0% / 55.8% AP on the COCO dataset at 124 / 78 FPS on an NVIDIA T4 GPU. When pretrained on Objects365, D-FINE-L / X attains 57.1% / 59.3% AP, surpassing all existing real-time detectors. Furthermore, our method significantly enhances the performance of a wide range of DETR models by up to 5.3% AP with negligible extra parameters and training costs. Our code and pretrained models: https://github.com/Peterande/D-FINE.

Masked image modeling (MIM) has attracted much research attention due to its promising potential for learning scalable visual representations. In typical approaches, models usually focus on predicting specific contents of masked patches, and their performances are highly related to pre-defined mask strategies. Intuitively, this procedure can be considered as training a student (the model) on solving given problems (predict masked patches). However, we argue that the model should not only focus on solving given problems, but also stand in the shoes of a teacher to produce a more challenging problem by itself. To this end, we propose Hard Patches Mining (HPM), a brand-new framework for MIM pre-training. We observe that the reconstruction loss can naturally be the metric of the difficulty of the pre-training task. Therefore, we introduce an auxiliary loss predictor, predicting patch-wise losses first and deciding where to mask next. It adopts a relative relationship learning strategy to prevent overfitting to exact reconstruction loss values. Experiments under various settings demonstrate the effectiveness of HPM in constructing masked images. Furthermore, we empirically find that solely introducing the loss prediction objective leads to powerful representations, verifying the efficacy of the ability to be aware of where is hard to reconstruct.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Machine learning models -- including prominent zero-shot models -- are often trained on datasets whose labels are only a small proportion of a larger label space. Such spaces are commonly equipped with a metric that relates the labels via distances between them. We propose a simple approach to exploit this information to adapt the trained model to reliably predict new classes -- or, in the case of zero-shot prediction, to improve its performance -- without any additional training. Our technique is a drop-in replacement of the standard prediction rule, swapping argmax with the Fr\'echet mean. We provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis for this approach, studying (i) learning-theoretic results trading off label space diameter, sample complexity, and model dimension, (ii) characterizations of the full range of scenarios in which it is possible to predict any unobserved class, and (iii) an optimal active learning-like next class selection procedure to obtain optimal training classes for when it is not possible to predict the entire range of unobserved classes. Empirically, using easily-available external metrics, our proposed approach, Loki, gains up to 29.7% relative improvement over SimCLR on ImageNet and scales to hundreds of thousands of classes. When no such metric is available, Loki can use self-derived metrics from class embeddings and obtains a 10.5% improvement on pretrained zero-shot models such as CLIP.

Instructing the model to generate a sequence of intermediate steps, a.k.a., a chain of thought (CoT), is a highly effective method to improve the accuracy of large language models (LLMs) on arithmetics and symbolic reasoning tasks. However, the mechanism behind CoT remains unclear. This work provides a theoretical understanding of the power of CoT for decoder-only transformers through the lens of expressiveness. Conceptually, CoT empowers the model with the ability to perform inherently serial computation, which is otherwise lacking in transformers, especially when depth is low. Given input length n, previous works have shown that constant-depth transformers with finite precision poly(n) embedding size can only solve problems in TC^0 without CoT. We first show an even tighter expressiveness upper bound for constant-depth transformers with constant-bit precision, which can only solve problems in AC^0, a proper subset of TC^0. However, with T steps of CoT, constant-depth transformers using constant-bit precision and O(log n) embedding size can solve any problem solvable by boolean circuits of size T. Empirically, enabling CoT dramatically improves the accuracy for tasks that are hard for parallel computation, including the composition of permutation groups, iterated squaring, and circuit value problems, especially for low-depth transformers.

Open-source benchmark datasets have been a critical component for advancing machine learning for robot perception in terrestrial applications. Benchmark datasets enable the widespread development of state-of-the-art machine learning methods, which require large datasets for training, validation, and thorough comparison to competing approaches. Underwater environments impose several operational challenges that hinder efforts to collect large benchmark datasets for marine robot perception. Furthermore, a low abundance of targets of interest relative to the size of the search space leads to increased time and cost required to collect useful datasets for a specific task. As a result, there is limited availability of labeled benchmark datasets for underwater applications. We present the AI4Shipwrecks dataset, which consists of 24 distinct shipwreck sites totaling 286 high-resolution labeled side scan sonar images to advance the state-of-the-art in autonomous sonar image understanding. We leverage the unique abundance of targets in Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary in Lake Huron, MI, to collect and compile a sonar imagery benchmark dataset through surveys with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). We consulted with expert marine archaeologists for the labeling of robotically gathered data. We then leverage this dataset to perform benchmark experiments for comparison of state-of-the-art supervised segmentation methods, and we present insights on opportunities and open challenges for the field. The dataset and benchmarking tools will be released as an open-source benchmark dataset to spur innovation in machine learning for Great Lakes and ocean exploration. The dataset and accompanying software are available at https://umfieldrobotics.github.io/ai4shipwrecks/.

Multimodal language models (MLMs) still face challenges in fundamental visual perception tasks where specialized models excel. Tasks requiring reasoning about 3D structures benefit from depth estimation, and reasoning about 2D object instances benefits from object detection. Yet, MLMs can not produce intermediate depth or boxes to reason over. Finetuning MLMs on relevant data doesn't generalize well and outsourcing computation to specialized vision tools is too compute-intensive and memory-inefficient. To address this, we introduce Perception Tokens, intrinsic image representations designed to assist reasoning tasks where language is insufficient. Perception tokens act as auxiliary reasoning tokens, akin to chain-of-thought prompts in language models. For example, in a depth-related task, an MLM augmented with perception tokens can reason by generating a depth map as tokens, enabling it to solve the problem effectively. We propose AURORA, a training method that augments MLMs with perception tokens for improved reasoning over visual inputs. AURORA leverages a VQVAE to transform intermediate image representations, such as depth maps into a tokenized format and bounding box tokens, which is then used in a multi-task training framework. AURORA achieves notable improvements across counting benchmarks: +10.8% on BLINK, +11.3% on CVBench, and +8.3% on SEED-Bench, outperforming finetuning approaches in generalization across datasets. It also improves on relative depth: over +6% on BLINK. With perception tokens, AURORA expands the scope of MLMs beyond language-based reasoning, paving the way for more effective visual reasoning capabilities.

Predicting simple function classes has been widely used as a testbed for developing theory and understanding of the trained Transformer's in-context learning (ICL) ability. In this paper, we revisit the training of Transformers on linear regression tasks, and different from all the existing literature, we consider a bi-objective prediction task of predicting both the conditional expectation E[Y|X] and the conditional variance Var(Y|X). This additional uncertainty quantification objective provides a handle to (i) better design out-of-distribution experiments to distinguish ICL from in-weight learning (IWL) and (ii) make a better separation between the algorithms with and without using the prior information of the training distribution. Theoretically, we show that the trained Transformer reaches near Bayes-optimum, suggesting the usage of the information of the training distribution. Our method can be extended to other cases. Specifically, with the Transformer's context window S, we prove a generalization bound of mathcal{O}(min{S, T/(n T)}) on n tasks with sequences of length T, providing sharper analysis compared to previous results of mathcal{O}(1/n). Empirically, we illustrate that while the trained Transformer behaves as the Bayes-optimal solution as a natural consequence of supervised training in distribution, it does not necessarily perform a Bayesian inference when facing task shifts, in contrast to the equivalence between these two proposed in many existing literature. We also demonstrate the trained Transformer's ICL ability over covariates shift and prompt-length shift and interpret them as a generalization over a meta distribution.

The task of predicting time and location from images is challenging and requires complex human-like puzzle-solving ability over different clues. In this work, we formalize this ability into core skills and implement them using different modules in an expert pipeline called PuzzleGPT. PuzzleGPT consists of a perceiver to identify visual clues, a reasoner to deduce prediction candidates, a combiner to combinatorially combine information from different clues, a web retriever to get external knowledge if the task can't be solved locally, and a noise filter for robustness. This results in a zero-shot, interpretable, and robust approach that records state-of-the-art performance on two datasets -- TARA and WikiTilo. PuzzleGPT outperforms large VLMs such as BLIP-2, InstructBLIP, LLaVA, and even GPT-4V, as well as automatically generated reasoning pipelines like VisProg, by at least 32% and 38%, respectively. It even rivals or surpasses finetuned models.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

Quantifying similarity between neural representations -- e.g. hidden layer activation vectors -- is a perennial problem in deep learning and neuroscience research. Existing methods compare deterministic responses (e.g. artificial networks that lack stochastic layers) or averaged responses (e.g., trial-averaged firing rates in biological data). However, these measures of _deterministic_ representational similarity ignore the scale and geometric structure of noise, both of which play important roles in neural computation. To rectify this, we generalize previously proposed shape metrics (Williams et al. 2021) to quantify differences in _stochastic_ representations. These new distances satisfy the triangle inequality, and thus can be used as a rigorous basis for many supervised and unsupervised analyses. Leveraging this novel framework, we find that the stochastic geometries of neurobiological representations of oriented visual gratings and naturalistic scenes respectively resemble untrained and trained deep network representations. Further, we are able to more accurately predict certain network attributes (e.g. training hyperparameters) from its position in stochastic (versus deterministic) shape space.