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App.py
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import pandas as pd
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import streamlit as st
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import numpy as np
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from scipy.integrate import odeint
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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#dowload file
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!wget https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/monkeypox/main/owid-monkeypox-data.csv
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#read files
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data = pd.read_csv('owid-monkeypox-data.csv')
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data = data[['location','date','new_cases','total_cases','new_deaths','total_deaths']]
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#preprocessiong data
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all_location = {}
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for i in data['location'].unique():
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all_location[i] = data[data['location'] == i].reset_index(drop=True)
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# SIR model differential equations.
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def deriv(x, t, beta, gamma):
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s, i, r = x
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dsdt = -beta * s * i
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didt = beta * s * i - gamma * i
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drdt = gamma * i
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return [dsdt, didt, drdt]
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#plot model
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def plotdata(t, s, i, e=None):
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# plot the data
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fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,6))
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ax = [fig.add_subplot(221, axisbelow=True),
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fig.add_subplot(223),
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fig.add_subplot(122)]
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ax[0].plot(t, s, lw=3, label='Fraction Susceptible')
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ax[0].plot(t, i, lw=3, label='Fraction Infective')
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ax[0].plot(t, r, lw=3, label='Recovered')
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ax[0].set_title('Susceptible and Recovered Populations')
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ax[0].set_xlabel('Time /days')
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ax[0].set_ylabel('Fraction')
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ax[1].plot(t, i, lw=3, label='Infective')
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ax[1].set_title('Infectious Population')
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if e is not None: ax[1].plot(t, e, lw=3, label='Exposed')
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ax[1].set_ylim(0, 1.0)
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ax[1].set_xlabel('Time /days')
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ax[1].set_ylabel('Fraction')
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ax[2].plot(s, i, lw=3, label='s, i trajectory')
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ax[2].plot([1/R0, 1/R0], [0, 1], '--', lw=3, label='di/dt = 0')
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ax[2].plot(s[0], i[0], '.', ms=20, label='Initial Condition')
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ax[2].plot(s[-1], i[-1], '.', ms=20, label='Final Condition')
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ax[2].set_title('State Trajectory')
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ax[2].set_aspect('equal')
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ax[2].set_ylim(0, 1.05)
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ax[2].set_xlim(0, 1.05)
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ax[2].set_xlabel('Susceptible')
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ax[2].set_ylabel('Infectious')
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for a in ax:
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a.grid(True)
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a.legend()
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plt.tight_layout()
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#final model
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def SIR(country,t_infective):
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# parameter values
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R0 = (all_location[country]['new_cases'].sum()/len(all_location[country]['date'].unique()))/t_infective
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t_infective = t_infective
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# initial number of infected and recovered individuals
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i_initial = 1/20000
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r_initial = 0.00
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s_initial = 1 - i_initial - r_initial
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gamma = 1/t_infective
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beta = R0*gamma
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t = np.linspace(0, 100, 1000)
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x_initial = s_initial, i_initial, r_initial
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soln = odeint(deriv, x_initial, t, args=(beta, gamma))
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s, i, r = soln.T
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e = None
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plotdata(t, s, i)
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return R0,t_infective,gamma,beta
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def main():
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st.title("SIR Model for Monkeypox")
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with st.form("questionaire"):
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country = st.selectbox("Country")# user's input
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recovery = st.slider("How long Monkeypox recover?", 21, 31, 21)# user's input
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# clicked==True only when the button is clicked
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clicked = st.form_submit_button("Show Graph")
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if clicked:
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#show total cases graph
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all_location[country]['total_cases'].plot()
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# Show SIR
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SIR_param = SIR(country,recovery)
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st.success("SIR model parameters for "+str(country)+" is")
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st.success("R0 = "+str(SIR_param[0]))
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st.success("Beta = "+str(SIR_param[3]))
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st.success("Gamma = "+str(SIR_param[2]))
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# Run main()
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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main()
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