added poisson math to player prop sims

app.py

@@ -342,12 +342,14 @@ with tab4:
                         player_outcomes = pd.merge(players_only, overall_file, left_index=True, right_index=True)
 
                         players_only['Mean_Outcome'] = overall_file.mean(axis=1)
+                        players_only['Prop'] = prop_var
+                        players_only['poisson_var'] = players_only.apply(calculate_poisson, axis=1)
                         players_only['10%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.1, axis=1)
                         players_only['90%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.9, axis=1)
                         if ou_var == 'Over':
-                            players_only['beat_prop'] = overall_file[overall_file > prop_var].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
+                            players_only['beat_prop'] = np.where(overall_file['Prop'] <= 3, players_only['poisson_var'], overall_file[overall_file > prop_var].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims))
                         elif ou_var == 'Under':
-                            players_only['beat_prop'] = (overall_file[overall_file < prop_var].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims))
+                            players_only['beat_prop'] = np.where(overall_file['Prop'] <= 3, 1 - players_only['poisson_var'], (overall_file[overall_file < prop_var].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)))
 
                         players_only['implied_odds'] = np.where(line_var <= 0, (-(line_var)/((-(line_var))+100)), 100/(line_var+100))