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Update app.py
Browse files
app.py
CHANGED
@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import warnings
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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from collections import defaultdict
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import csv
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# Suppress warnings for cleaner output
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warnings.filterwarnings('ignore', category=FutureWarning)
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@@ -30,7 +31,10 @@ from sklearn.manifold import TSNE
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from sklearn.cluster import DBSCAN, KMeans
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from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
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from sklearn.decomposition import PCA
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from
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import statsmodels.api as sm
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import requests
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import tempfile
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@@ -161,6 +165,12 @@ CLUSTER_COLORS = [
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'#F8C471', '#82E0AA', '#F1948A', '#85C1E9', '#D2B4DE'
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]
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# Original color map for backward compatibility
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color_map = {
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'C5 Super Typhoon': 'rgb(255, 0, 0)',
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@@ -733,128 +743,272 @@ def classify_enso_phases(oni_value):
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return 'Neutral'
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# -----------------------------
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#
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# -----------------------------
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def extract_storm_features(typhoon_data):
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"""Extract comprehensive features for clustering analysis"""
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# Flatten column names
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storm_features.columns = ['SID'] + ['_'.join(col).strip() for col in storm_features.columns[1:]]
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# Add additional computed features
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storm_features['lat_range'] = storm_features['LAT_max'] - storm_features['LAT_min']
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storm_features['lon_range'] = storm_features['LON_max'] - storm_features['LON_min']
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storm_features['track_length'] = storm_features['ISO_TIME_count']
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# Add genesis location features
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genesis_data = typhoon_data.groupby('SID').first()[['LAT', 'LON', 'USA_WIND']]
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genesis_data.columns = ['genesis_lat', 'genesis_lon', 'genesis_intensity']
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storm_features = storm_features.merge(genesis_data, on='SID', how='left')
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# Add track shape features
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track_stats = []
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for sid in storm_features['SID']:
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storm_track = typhoon_data[typhoon_data['SID'] == sid].sort_values('ISO_TIME')
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if len(storm_track) > 2:
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# Calculate track curvature and direction changes
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lats = storm_track['LAT'].values
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lons = storm_track['LON'].values
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for i in range(1, len(lats)-1):
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# Simple bearing calculation
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dlat1 = lats[i] - lats[i-1]
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dlon1 = lons[i] - lons[i-1]
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dlat2 = lats[i+1] - lats[i]
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dlon2 = lons[i+1] - lons[i]
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angle1 = np.arctan2(dlat1, dlon1)
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angle2 = np.arctan2(dlat2, dlon2)
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change = abs(angle2 - angle1)
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bearing_changes.append(change)
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def perform_dimensionality_reduction(storm_features, method='umap', n_components=2):
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"""Perform UMAP or t-SNE dimensionality reduction"""
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def cluster_storms(embedding, method='dbscan', eps=0.5, min_samples=3):
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"""Cluster storms based on their embedding"""
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def create_advanced_clustering_visualization(storm_features, typhoon_data, method='umap', show_routes=True):
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"""Create comprehensive clustering visualization with route display"""
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try:
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# Validate inputs
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if storm_features is None or storm_features.empty:
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if typhoon_data is None or typhoon_data.empty:
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raise ValueError("No typhoon data available for route visualization")
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# Perform dimensionality reduction
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embedding, feature_cols, scaler = perform_dimensionality_reduction(storm_features, method)
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storm_features_viz['dim1'] = embedding[:, 0]
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storm_features_viz['dim2'] = embedding[:, 1]
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# Merge with typhoon data for additional info
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if show_routes:
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# Create subplot with both scatter plot and route map
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color = CLUSTER_COLORS[i % len(CLUSTER_COLORS)] if cluster != -1 else '#CCCCCC'
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cluster_name = f'Cluster {cluster}' if cluster != -1 else 'Noise'
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fig.add_trace(
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go.Scatter(
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x=cluster_data['dim1'],
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customdata=np.column_stack((
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cluster_data['NAME'].fillna('UNNAMED'),
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cluster_data['SEASON'].fillna(2000),
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))
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),
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row=1, col=1
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)
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# Add route map
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for i, cluster in enumerate(unique_clusters):
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if cluster == -1: # Skip noise for route visualization
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continue
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cluster_storm_ids = storm_features_viz[storm_features_viz['cluster'] == cluster]['SID'].tolist()
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color = CLUSTER_COLORS[i % len(CLUSTER_COLORS)]
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try:
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storm_track = typhoon_data[typhoon_data['SID'] == sid].sort_values('ISO_TIME')
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if len(storm_track) > 1:
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except Exception as track_error:
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continue
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# Update layout
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fig.update_layout(
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title_text="Advanced Storm Clustering Analysis with Route Visualization",
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showlegend=True
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)
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# Update geo layout
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x='dim1',
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y='dim2',
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color='cluster',
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hover_data=['NAME', 'SEASON'
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title=f'Storm Clustering using {method.upper()}',
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labels={
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'dim1': f'{method.upper()} Dimension 1',
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}
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# Generate detailed cluster statistics
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try:
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# Flatten column names for readability
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cluster_stats.columns = ['_'.join(col).strip() for col in cluster_stats.columns]
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storm_count = int(cluster_row['SID_count'])
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except Exception as stats_error:
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stats_text = f"Error generating cluster statistics: {str(stats_error)}"
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return fig, stats_text, storm_features_viz
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except Exception as e:
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error_fig = go.Figure()
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error_fig.add_annotation(
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text=f"Error in clustering analysis: {str(e)}",
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return error_fig, f"Error in clustering: {str(e)}", None
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# -----------------------------
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# -----------------------------
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def
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"""Create
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if not CNN_AVAILABLE:
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return None
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try:
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layers.Dense(64, activation='relu'),
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layers.Dropout(0.5),
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layers.Dense(32, activation='relu'),
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loss='mean_squared_error',
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metrics=['mae']
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latitude_factor = max(0.5, (30 - abs(lat)) / 30) if abs(lat) < 30 else 0.1
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intensity = base_intensity + sst_anomaly * 10 + seasonal_factor * 20 + latitude_factor * 30
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intensity = max(0, min(180, intensity)) # Clamp to reasonable range
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return intensity, f"CNN Prediction: {intensity:.1f} kt (Confidence: {confidence:.1%})"
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except Exception as e:
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return simulate_physics_based_prediction(lat, lon, month, oni_value)
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"""
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try:
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base_intensity = 45
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# ENSO effects
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if oni_value > 0.5: # El NiΓ±o
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intensity_modifier = -15
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elif oni_value < -0.5: # La NiΓ±a
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intensity_modifier = +
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else:
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intensity_modifier = 0
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# Seasonal effects
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if month in [8, 9, 10]: # Peak season
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seasonal_modifier = 25
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elif month in [6, 7, 11]: # Active season
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seasonal_modifier = 15
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else: # Quiet season
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seasonal_modifier = -10
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# Latitude effects (closer to equator = less favorable)
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if abs(lat) < 10:
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lat_modifier = -20 # Too close to equator
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elif 10 <= abs(lat) <= 25:
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lat_modifier = 10 # Optimal range
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else:
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#
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if 120 <= lon <= 160:
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-
|
|
|
|
|
1164 |
else:
|
1165 |
-
|
1166 |
|
1167 |
-
|
|
|
1168 |
predicted_intensity = max(25, min(180, predicted_intensity))
|
1169 |
|
1170 |
-
|
|
|
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|
1171 |
|
1172 |
-
return predicted_intensity, f"Physics-based Prediction: {predicted_intensity:.1f} kt (Confidence: {confidence:.1%})"
|
1173 |
except Exception as e:
|
1174 |
-
return
|
1175 |
|
1176 |
# -----------------------------
|
1177 |
# Regression Functions (Original)
|
@@ -1696,7 +2236,7 @@ def initialize_data():
|
|
1696 |
initialize_data()
|
1697 |
|
1698 |
# -----------------------------
|
1699 |
-
# ENHANCED: Gradio Interface
|
1700 |
# -----------------------------
|
1701 |
|
1702 |
def create_interface():
|
@@ -1721,64 +2261,76 @@ def create_interface():
|
|
1721 |
available_years = [str(year) for year in range(2000, 2026)]
|
1722 |
|
1723 |
with gr.Blocks(title="Enhanced Typhoon Analysis Platform", theme=gr.themes.Soft()) as demo:
|
1724 |
-
gr.Markdown("# Enhanced Typhoon Analysis Platform")
|
1725 |
-
gr.Markdown("Advanced ML clustering,
|
1726 |
|
1727 |
-
with gr.Tab("Overview"):
|
1728 |
overview_text = f"""
|
1729 |
## Welcome to the Enhanced Typhoon Analysis Dashboard
|
1730 |
|
1731 |
This dashboard provides comprehensive analysis of typhoon data in relation to ENSO phases with advanced machine learning capabilities.
|
1732 |
|
1733 |
-
### Enhanced Features:
|
1734 |
-
- Advanced ML Clustering
|
1735 |
-
-
|
1736 |
-
- Complete TD Support
|
1737 |
-
- 2025 Data Ready
|
1738 |
-
- Enhanced Animations
|
1739 |
-
|
1740 |
-
### Data Status:
|
1741 |
-
- ONI Data
|
1742 |
-
- Typhoon Data
|
1743 |
-
- Merged Data
|
1744 |
-
- Available Years
|
1745 |
-
|
1746 |
-
### Technical Capabilities:
|
1747 |
-
- UMAP Clustering
|
1748 |
-
- AI Predictions
|
1749 |
-
- Enhanced Categorization
|
1750 |
-
- Platform
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1751 |
"""
|
1752 |
gr.Markdown(overview_text)
|
1753 |
|
1754 |
-
with gr.Tab("Advanced ML Clustering
|
1755 |
-
gr.Markdown("## Storm Pattern Analysis using UMAP/t-SNE with Route Visualization")
|
1756 |
gr.Markdown("**This tab shows both the dimensional clustering analysis AND the actual storm tracks colored by cluster**")
|
1757 |
|
1758 |
with gr.Row():
|
1759 |
-
|
1760 |
-
|
1761 |
-
|
1762 |
-
|
1763 |
-
|
1764 |
-
|
1765 |
-
|
1766 |
-
|
1767 |
-
|
1768 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1769 |
|
1770 |
-
analyze_clusters_btn = gr.Button("Analyze Storm Clusters & Routes", variant="primary")
|
1771 |
|
1772 |
with gr.Row():
|
1773 |
cluster_plot = gr.Plot(label="Storm Clustering with Route Visualization")
|
1774 |
|
1775 |
with gr.Row():
|
1776 |
-
cluster_stats = gr.Textbox(label="Detailed Cluster Statistics", lines=15, max_lines=20)
|
1777 |
|
1778 |
def run_advanced_clustering_analysis(method, show_routes):
|
1779 |
try:
|
1780 |
# Extract features for clustering
|
1781 |
storm_features = extract_storm_features(typhoon_data)
|
|
|
|
|
1782 |
fig, stats, _ = create_advanced_clustering_visualization(storm_features, typhoon_data, method.lower(), show_routes)
|
1783 |
return fig, stats
|
1784 |
except Exception as e:
|
@@ -1793,68 +2345,113 @@ def create_interface():
|
|
1793 |
)
|
1794 |
|
1795 |
cluster_info_text = """
|
1796 |
-
### Advanced Clustering Features:
|
1797 |
-
- Multi-dimensional Analysis
|
1798 |
-
- Route Visualization
|
1799 |
-
- DBSCAN Clustering
|
1800 |
-
- Comprehensive Stats
|
1801 |
-
- Interactive
|
1802 |
-
|
1803 |
-
### How to Interpret:
|
1804 |
-
- Left Plot
|
1805 |
-
- Right Plot
|
1806 |
-
- Cluster Colors
|
1807 |
-
- Noise Points
|
1808 |
"""
|
1809 |
gr.Markdown(cluster_info_text)
|
1810 |
|
1811 |
-
with gr.Tab("
|
1812 |
-
gr.Markdown("## AI-Powered Storm Intensity Forecasting")
|
1813 |
|
1814 |
if CNN_AVAILABLE:
|
1815 |
-
gr.Markdown("Deep Learning models available - TensorFlow loaded successfully")
|
1816 |
method_description = "Using Convolutional Neural Networks for advanced intensity prediction"
|
1817 |
else:
|
1818 |
-
gr.Markdown("Physics-based models available - Using climatological relationships")
|
1819 |
gr.Markdown("*Install TensorFlow for deep learning features: `pip install tensorflow-cpu`*")
|
1820 |
method_description = "Using established meteorological relationships and climatology"
|
1821 |
|
1822 |
gr.Markdown(f"**Current Method**: {method_description}")
|
1823 |
|
1824 |
with gr.Row():
|
1825 |
-
|
1826 |
-
|
1827 |
-
|
1828 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1829 |
|
1830 |
-
|
|
|
1831 |
|
1832 |
with gr.Row():
|
1833 |
-
|
1834 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1835 |
|
1836 |
predict_btn.click(
|
1837 |
-
fn=
|
1838 |
-
inputs=[
|
1839 |
-
outputs=[
|
1840 |
)
|
1841 |
|
1842 |
prediction_info_text = """
|
1843 |
-
### Prediction Features:
|
1844 |
-
-
|
1845 |
-
-
|
1846 |
-
-
|
1847 |
-
-
|
1848 |
-
|
1849 |
-
|
1850 |
-
|
1851 |
-
-
|
1852 |
-
-
|
1853 |
-
-
|
|
|
|
|
1854 |
"""
|
1855 |
gr.Markdown(prediction_info_text)
|
1856 |
|
1857 |
-
with gr.Tab("Track Visualization"):
|
1858 |
with gr.Row():
|
1859 |
start_year = gr.Number(label="Start Year", value=2020)
|
1860 |
start_month = gr.Dropdown(label="Start Month", choices=list(range(1, 13)), value=1)
|
@@ -1871,7 +2468,7 @@ def create_interface():
|
|
1871 |
outputs=[tracks_plot, typhoon_count]
|
1872 |
)
|
1873 |
|
1874 |
-
with gr.Tab("Wind Analysis"):
|
1875 |
with gr.Row():
|
1876 |
wind_start_year = gr.Number(label="Start Year", value=2020)
|
1877 |
wind_start_month = gr.Dropdown(label="Start Month", choices=list(range(1, 13)), value=1)
|
@@ -1888,7 +2485,7 @@ def create_interface():
|
|
1888 |
outputs=[wind_scatter, wind_regression_results]
|
1889 |
)
|
1890 |
|
1891 |
-
with gr.Tab("Pressure Analysis"):
|
1892 |
with gr.Row():
|
1893 |
pressure_start_year = gr.Number(label="Start Year", value=2020)
|
1894 |
pressure_start_month = gr.Dropdown(label="Start Month", choices=list(range(1, 13)), value=1)
|
@@ -1905,7 +2502,7 @@ def create_interface():
|
|
1905 |
outputs=[pressure_scatter, pressure_regression_results]
|
1906 |
)
|
1907 |
|
1908 |
-
with gr.Tab("Longitude Analysis"):
|
1909 |
with gr.Row():
|
1910 |
lon_start_year = gr.Number(label="Start Year", value=2020)
|
1911 |
lon_start_month = gr.Dropdown(label="Start Month", choices=list(range(1, 13)), value=1)
|
@@ -1923,8 +2520,8 @@ def create_interface():
|
|
1923 |
outputs=[regression_plot, slopes_text, lon_regression_results]
|
1924 |
)
|
1925 |
|
1926 |
-
with gr.Tab("Enhanced Track Animation"):
|
1927 |
-
gr.Markdown("## High-Quality Storm Track Visualization (All Categories Including TD)")
|
1928 |
|
1929 |
with gr.Row():
|
1930 |
year_dropdown = gr.Dropdown(
|
@@ -1946,7 +2543,7 @@ def create_interface():
|
|
1946 |
value='atlantic'
|
1947 |
)
|
1948 |
|
1949 |
-
generate_video_btn = gr.Button("Generate Enhanced Animation", variant="primary")
|
1950 |
video_output = gr.Video(label="Storm Track Animation")
|
1951 |
|
1952 |
# Update storm options when year or basin changes
|
@@ -1965,19 +2562,19 @@ def create_interface():
|
|
1965 |
)
|
1966 |
|
1967 |
animation_info_text = """
|
1968 |
-
### Enhanced Animation Features:
|
1969 |
-
- Full TD Support
|
1970 |
-
- 2025 Compatibility
|
1971 |
-
- Enhanced Maps
|
1972 |
-
- Smart Scaling
|
1973 |
-
- Real-time Info
|
1974 |
-
- Professional Styling
|
1975 |
-
- Optimized Export
|
1976 |
"""
|
1977 |
gr.Markdown(animation_info_text)
|
1978 |
|
1979 |
-
with gr.Tab("Data Statistics & Insights"):
|
1980 |
-
gr.Markdown("## Comprehensive Dataset Analysis")
|
1981 |
|
1982 |
# Create enhanced data summary
|
1983 |
try:
|
@@ -2083,27 +2680,27 @@ def create_interface():
|
|
2083 |
|
2084 |
# Create statistics text safely
|
2085 |
stats_text = f"""
|
2086 |
-
### Enhanced Dataset Summary:
|
2087 |
-
- Total Unique Storms
|
2088 |
-
- Total Track Records
|
2089 |
-
- Year Range
|
2090 |
-
- Basins Available
|
2091 |
-
- Average Storms/Year
|
2092 |
-
|
2093 |
-
### Storm Category Breakdown:
|
2094 |
-
- Tropical Depressions
|
2095 |
-
- Tropical Storms
|
2096 |
-
- Typhoons (C1-C5)
|
2097 |
-
|
2098 |
-
###
|
2099 |
-
- Complete TD Analysis - First platform to include comprehensive TD tracking
|
2100 |
-
- Advanced ML Clustering - DBSCAN pattern recognition with route visualization
|
2101 |
-
- Real-time Predictions - Physics-based and optional CNN intensity forecasting
|
2102 |
-
- 2025 Data Ready - Full compatibility with current season data
|
2103 |
-
- Enhanced Animations - Professional-quality storm track videos
|
2104 |
-
- Multi-basin Analysis - Comprehensive Pacific and Atlantic coverage
|
2105 |
-
|
2106 |
-
### Research Applications:
|
2107 |
- Climate change impact studies
|
2108 |
- Seasonal forecasting research
|
2109 |
- Storm pattern classification
|
@@ -2176,42 +2773,6 @@ def create_minimal_fallback_interface():
|
|
2176 |
|
2177 |
return demo
|
2178 |
|
2179 |
-
# -----------------------------
|
2180 |
-
# Color Test Functions (Optional)
|
2181 |
-
# -----------------------------
|
2182 |
-
|
2183 |
-
def test_color_conversion():
|
2184 |
-
"""Test color conversion functions"""
|
2185 |
-
print("Testing color conversion...")
|
2186 |
-
|
2187 |
-
# Test all categories
|
2188 |
-
test_winds = [25, 40, 70, 85, 100, 120, 150] # TD, TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5
|
2189 |
-
|
2190 |
-
for wind in test_winds:
|
2191 |
-
category = categorize_typhoon_enhanced(wind)
|
2192 |
-
plotly_color = enhanced_color_map.get(category, 'rgb(128,128,128)')
|
2193 |
-
matplotlib_color = get_matplotlib_color(category)
|
2194 |
-
|
2195 |
-
print(f"Wind: {wind:3d}kt -> {category:20s} -> Plotly: {plotly_color:15s} -> Matplotlib: {matplotlib_color}")
|
2196 |
-
|
2197 |
-
print("Color conversion test complete!")
|
2198 |
-
|
2199 |
-
def test_rgb_conversion():
|
2200 |
-
"""Test RGB string to hex conversion"""
|
2201 |
-
test_colors = [
|
2202 |
-
'rgb(128, 128, 128)',
|
2203 |
-
'rgb(255, 0, 0)',
|
2204 |
-
'rgb(0, 255, 0)',
|
2205 |
-
'rgb(0, 0, 255)'
|
2206 |
-
]
|
2207 |
-
|
2208 |
-
print("Testing RGB to hex conversion...")
|
2209 |
-
for rgb_str in test_colors:
|
2210 |
-
hex_color = rgb_string_to_hex(rgb_str)
|
2211 |
-
print(f"{rgb_str:20s} -> {hex_color}")
|
2212 |
-
|
2213 |
-
print("RGB conversion test complete!")
|
2214 |
-
|
2215 |
# Create and launch the interface
|
2216 |
demo = create_interface()
|
2217 |
|
|
|
8 |
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
|
9 |
from collections import defaultdict
|
10 |
import csv
|
11 |
+
import json
|
12 |
|
13 |
# Suppress warnings for cleaner output
|
14 |
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore', category=FutureWarning)
|
|
|
31 |
from sklearn.cluster import DBSCAN, KMeans
|
32 |
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
|
33 |
from sklearn.decomposition import PCA
|
34 |
+
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
|
35 |
+
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
|
36 |
+
from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error, r2_score
|
37 |
+
from scipy.interpolate import interp1d, RBFInterpolator
|
38 |
import statsmodels.api as sm
|
39 |
import requests
|
40 |
import tempfile
|
|
|
165 |
'#F8C471', '#82E0AA', '#F1948A', '#85C1E9', '#D2B4DE'
|
166 |
]
|
167 |
|
168 |
+
# Route prediction colors
|
169 |
+
ROUTE_COLORS = [
|
170 |
+
'#FF0066', '#00FF66', '#6600FF', '#FF6600', '#0066FF',
|
171 |
+
'#FF00CC', '#00FFCC', '#CC00FF', '#CCFF00', '#00CCFF'
|
172 |
+
]
|
173 |
+
|
174 |
# Original color map for backward compatibility
|
175 |
color_map = {
|
176 |
'C5 Super Typhoon': 'rgb(255, 0, 0)',
|
|
|
743 |
return 'Neutral'
|
744 |
|
745 |
# -----------------------------
|
746 |
+
# FIXED: ADVANCED ML FEATURES WITH ROBUST ERROR HANDLING
|
747 |
# -----------------------------
|
748 |
|
749 |
def extract_storm_features(typhoon_data):
|
750 |
+
"""Extract comprehensive features for clustering analysis - FIXED VERSION"""
|
751 |
+
try:
|
752 |
+
if typhoon_data is None or typhoon_data.empty:
|
753 |
+
logging.error("No typhoon data provided for feature extraction")
|
754 |
+
return None
|
755 |
+
|
756 |
+
# Basic features - ensure columns exist
|
757 |
+
basic_features = []
|
758 |
+
for sid in typhoon_data['SID'].unique():
|
759 |
+
storm_data = typhoon_data[typhoon_data['SID'] == sid].copy()
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
760 |
|
761 |
+
if len(storm_data) == 0:
|
762 |
+
continue
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
763 |
|
764 |
+
# Initialize feature dict with safe defaults
|
765 |
+
features = {'SID': sid}
|
766 |
|
767 |
+
# Wind statistics
|
768 |
+
if 'USA_WIND' in storm_data.columns:
|
769 |
+
wind_values = pd.to_numeric(storm_data['USA_WIND'], errors='coerce').dropna()
|
770 |
+
if len(wind_values) > 0:
|
771 |
+
features['USA_WIND_max'] = wind_values.max()
|
772 |
+
features['USA_WIND_mean'] = wind_values.mean()
|
773 |
+
features['USA_WIND_std'] = wind_values.std() if len(wind_values) > 1 else 0
|
774 |
+
else:
|
775 |
+
features['USA_WIND_max'] = 30
|
776 |
+
features['USA_WIND_mean'] = 30
|
777 |
+
features['USA_WIND_std'] = 0
|
778 |
+
else:
|
779 |
+
features['USA_WIND_max'] = 30
|
780 |
+
features['USA_WIND_mean'] = 30
|
781 |
+
features['USA_WIND_std'] = 0
|
782 |
+
|
783 |
+
# Pressure statistics
|
784 |
+
if 'USA_PRES' in storm_data.columns:
|
785 |
+
pres_values = pd.to_numeric(storm_data['USA_PRES'], errors='coerce').dropna()
|
786 |
+
if len(pres_values) > 0:
|
787 |
+
features['USA_PRES_min'] = pres_values.min()
|
788 |
+
features['USA_PRES_mean'] = pres_values.mean()
|
789 |
+
features['USA_PRES_std'] = pres_values.std() if len(pres_values) > 1 else 0
|
790 |
+
else:
|
791 |
+
features['USA_PRES_min'] = 1000
|
792 |
+
features['USA_PRES_mean'] = 1000
|
793 |
+
features['USA_PRES_std'] = 0
|
794 |
+
else:
|
795 |
+
features['USA_PRES_min'] = 1000
|
796 |
+
features['USA_PRES_mean'] = 1000
|
797 |
+
features['USA_PRES_std'] = 0
|
798 |
+
|
799 |
+
# Location statistics
|
800 |
+
if 'LAT' in storm_data.columns and 'LON' in storm_data.columns:
|
801 |
+
lat_values = pd.to_numeric(storm_data['LAT'], errors='coerce').dropna()
|
802 |
+
lon_values = pd.to_numeric(storm_data['LON'], errors='coerce').dropna()
|
803 |
+
|
804 |
+
if len(lat_values) > 0 and len(lon_values) > 0:
|
805 |
+
features['LAT_mean'] = lat_values.mean()
|
806 |
+
features['LAT_std'] = lat_values.std() if len(lat_values) > 1 else 0
|
807 |
+
features['LAT_max'] = lat_values.max()
|
808 |
+
features['LAT_min'] = lat_values.min()
|
809 |
+
features['LON_mean'] = lon_values.mean()
|
810 |
+
features['LON_std'] = lon_values.std() if len(lon_values) > 1 else 0
|
811 |
+
features['LON_max'] = lon_values.max()
|
812 |
+
features['LON_min'] = lon_values.min()
|
813 |
+
|
814 |
+
# Genesis location (first valid position)
|
815 |
+
features['genesis_lat'] = lat_values.iloc[0]
|
816 |
+
features['genesis_lon'] = lon_values.iloc[0]
|
817 |
+
features['genesis_intensity'] = features['USA_WIND_mean'] # Use mean as fallback
|
818 |
+
|
819 |
+
# Track characteristics
|
820 |
+
features['lat_range'] = lat_values.max() - lat_values.min()
|
821 |
+
features['lon_range'] = lon_values.max() - lon_values.min()
|
822 |
+
|
823 |
+
# Calculate track distance
|
824 |
+
if len(lat_values) > 1:
|
825 |
+
distances = []
|
826 |
+
for i in range(1, len(lat_values)):
|
827 |
+
dlat = lat_values.iloc[i] - lat_values.iloc[i-1]
|
828 |
+
dlon = lon_values.iloc[i] - lon_values.iloc[i-1]
|
829 |
+
distances.append(np.sqrt(dlat**2 + dlon**2))
|
830 |
+
features['total_distance'] = sum(distances)
|
831 |
+
features['avg_speed'] = np.mean(distances) if distances else 0
|
832 |
+
else:
|
833 |
+
features['total_distance'] = 0
|
834 |
+
features['avg_speed'] = 0
|
835 |
+
|
836 |
+
# Track curvature
|
837 |
+
if len(lat_values) > 2:
|
838 |
+
bearing_changes = []
|
839 |
+
for i in range(1, len(lat_values)-1):
|
840 |
+
dlat1 = lat_values.iloc[i] - lat_values.iloc[i-1]
|
841 |
+
dlon1 = lon_values.iloc[i] - lon_values.iloc[i-1]
|
842 |
+
dlat2 = lat_values.iloc[i+1] - lat_values.iloc[i]
|
843 |
+
dlon2 = lon_values.iloc[i+1] - lon_values.iloc[i]
|
844 |
+
|
845 |
+
angle1 = np.arctan2(dlat1, dlon1)
|
846 |
+
angle2 = np.arctan2(dlat2, dlon2)
|
847 |
+
change = abs(angle2 - angle1)
|
848 |
+
bearing_changes.append(change)
|
849 |
+
|
850 |
+
features['avg_curvature'] = np.mean(bearing_changes) if bearing_changes else 0
|
851 |
+
else:
|
852 |
+
features['avg_curvature'] = 0
|
853 |
+
else:
|
854 |
+
# Default location values
|
855 |
+
features.update({
|
856 |
+
'LAT_mean': 20, 'LAT_std': 0, 'LAT_max': 20, 'LAT_min': 20,
|
857 |
+
'LON_mean': 140, 'LON_std': 0, 'LON_max': 140, 'LON_min': 140,
|
858 |
+
'genesis_lat': 20, 'genesis_lon': 140, 'genesis_intensity': 30,
|
859 |
+
'lat_range': 0, 'lon_range': 0, 'total_distance': 0,
|
860 |
+
'avg_speed': 0, 'avg_curvature': 0
|
861 |
+
})
|
862 |
+
else:
|
863 |
+
# Default location values if columns missing
|
864 |
+
features.update({
|
865 |
+
'LAT_mean': 20, 'LAT_std': 0, 'LAT_max': 20, 'LAT_min': 20,
|
866 |
+
'LON_mean': 140, 'LON_std': 0, 'LON_max': 140, 'LON_min': 140,
|
867 |
+
'genesis_lat': 20, 'genesis_lon': 140, 'genesis_intensity': 30,
|
868 |
+
'lat_range': 0, 'lon_range': 0, 'total_distance': 0,
|
869 |
+
'avg_speed': 0, 'avg_curvature': 0
|
870 |
+
})
|
871 |
+
|
872 |
+
# Track length
|
873 |
+
features['track_length'] = len(storm_data)
|
874 |
+
|
875 |
+
# Add seasonal information
|
876 |
+
if 'SEASON' in storm_data.columns:
|
877 |
+
features['season'] = storm_data['SEASON'].iloc[0]
|
878 |
+
else:
|
879 |
+
features['season'] = 2000
|
880 |
+
|
881 |
+
# Add basin information
|
882 |
+
if 'BASIN' in storm_data.columns:
|
883 |
+
features['basin'] = storm_data['BASIN'].iloc[0]
|
884 |
+
elif 'SID' in storm_data.columns:
|
885 |
+
features['basin'] = sid[:2] if len(sid) >= 2 else 'WP'
|
886 |
+
else:
|
887 |
+
features['basin'] = 'WP'
|
888 |
+
|
889 |
+
basic_features.append(features)
|
890 |
+
|
891 |
+
if not basic_features:
|
892 |
+
logging.error("No valid storm features could be extracted")
|
893 |
+
return None
|
894 |
+
|
895 |
+
# Convert to DataFrame
|
896 |
+
storm_features = pd.DataFrame(basic_features)
|
897 |
+
|
898 |
+
# Ensure all numeric columns are properly typed
|
899 |
+
numeric_columns = [col for col in storm_features.columns if col not in ['SID', 'basin']]
|
900 |
+
for col in numeric_columns:
|
901 |
+
storm_features[col] = pd.to_numeric(storm_features[col], errors='coerce').fillna(0)
|
902 |
+
|
903 |
+
logging.info(f"Successfully extracted features for {len(storm_features)} storms")
|
904 |
+
logging.info(f"Feature columns: {list(storm_features.columns)}")
|
905 |
+
|
906 |
+
return storm_features
|
907 |
+
|
908 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
909 |
+
logging.error(f"Error in extract_storm_features: {e}")
|
910 |
+
import traceback
|
911 |
+
traceback.print_exc()
|
912 |
+
return None
|
913 |
|
914 |
def perform_dimensionality_reduction(storm_features, method='umap', n_components=2):
|
915 |
+
"""Perform UMAP or t-SNE dimensionality reduction - FIXED VERSION"""
|
916 |
+
try:
|
917 |
+
if storm_features is None or storm_features.empty:
|
918 |
+
raise ValueError("No storm features provided")
|
919 |
+
|
920 |
+
# Select numeric features for clustering - FIXED
|
921 |
+
feature_cols = []
|
922 |
+
for col in storm_features.columns:
|
923 |
+
if col not in ['SID', 'basin'] and storm_features[col].dtype in ['float64', 'int64']:
|
924 |
+
# Check if column has valid data
|
925 |
+
valid_data = storm_features[col].dropna()
|
926 |
+
if len(valid_data) > 0 and valid_data.std() > 0: # Only include columns with variance
|
927 |
+
feature_cols.append(col)
|
928 |
+
|
929 |
+
if len(feature_cols) == 0:
|
930 |
+
raise ValueError("No valid numeric features found for clustering")
|
931 |
+
|
932 |
+
logging.info(f"Using {len(feature_cols)} features for clustering: {feature_cols}")
|
933 |
+
|
934 |
+
X = storm_features[feature_cols].fillna(0)
|
935 |
+
|
936 |
+
# Check if we have enough samples
|
937 |
+
if len(X) < 2:
|
938 |
+
raise ValueError("Need at least 2 storms for clustering")
|
939 |
+
|
940 |
+
# Standardize features
|
941 |
+
scaler = StandardScaler()
|
942 |
+
X_scaled = scaler.fit_transform(X)
|
943 |
+
|
944 |
+
# Perform dimensionality reduction
|
945 |
+
if method.lower() == 'umap' and UMAP_AVAILABLE and len(X_scaled) >= 4:
|
946 |
+
# UMAP parameters optimized for typhoon data - fixed warnings
|
947 |
+
n_neighbors = min(15, len(X_scaled) - 1)
|
948 |
+
reducer = umap.UMAP(
|
949 |
+
n_components=n_components,
|
950 |
+
n_neighbors=n_neighbors,
|
951 |
+
min_dist=0.1,
|
952 |
+
metric='euclidean',
|
953 |
+
random_state=42,
|
954 |
+
n_jobs=1 # Explicitly set to avoid warning
|
955 |
+
)
|
956 |
+
elif method.lower() == 'tsne' and len(X_scaled) >= 4:
|
957 |
+
# t-SNE parameters
|
958 |
+
perplexity = min(30, len(X_scaled) // 4)
|
959 |
+
perplexity = max(1, perplexity) # Ensure perplexity is at least 1
|
960 |
+
reducer = TSNE(
|
961 |
+
n_components=n_components,
|
962 |
+
perplexity=perplexity,
|
963 |
+
learning_rate=200,
|
964 |
+
n_iter=1000,
|
965 |
+
random_state=42
|
966 |
+
)
|
967 |
+
else:
|
968 |
+
# Fallback to PCA
|
969 |
+
reducer = PCA(n_components=n_components, random_state=42)
|
970 |
+
|
971 |
+
# Fit and transform
|
972 |
+
embedding = reducer.fit_transform(X_scaled)
|
973 |
+
|
974 |
+
logging.info(f"Dimensionality reduction successful: {X_scaled.shape} -> {embedding.shape}")
|
975 |
+
|
976 |
+
return embedding, feature_cols, scaler
|
977 |
+
|
978 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
979 |
+
logging.error(f"Error in perform_dimensionality_reduction: {e}")
|
980 |
+
raise
|
981 |
|
982 |
def cluster_storms(embedding, method='dbscan', eps=0.5, min_samples=3):
|
983 |
+
"""Cluster storms based on their embedding - FIXED VERSION"""
|
984 |
+
try:
|
985 |
+
if len(embedding) < 2:
|
986 |
+
return np.array([0] * len(embedding)) # Single cluster for insufficient data
|
987 |
+
|
988 |
+
if method.lower() == 'dbscan':
|
989 |
+
# Adjust min_samples based on data size
|
990 |
+
min_samples = min(min_samples, max(2, len(embedding) // 5))
|
991 |
+
clusterer = DBSCAN(eps=eps, min_samples=min_samples)
|
992 |
+
elif method.lower() == 'kmeans':
|
993 |
+
# Adjust n_clusters based on data size
|
994 |
+
n_clusters = min(5, max(2, len(embedding) // 3))
|
995 |
+
clusterer = KMeans(n_clusters=n_clusters, random_state=42)
|
996 |
+
else:
|
997 |
+
raise ValueError("Method must be 'dbscan' or 'kmeans'")
|
998 |
+
|
999 |
+
clusters = clusterer.fit_predict(embedding)
|
1000 |
+
|
1001 |
+
logging.info(f"Clustering complete: {len(np.unique(clusters))} clusters found")
|
1002 |
+
|
1003 |
+
return clusters
|
1004 |
+
|
1005 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
1006 |
+
logging.error(f"Error in cluster_storms: {e}")
|
1007 |
+
# Return single cluster as fallback
|
1008 |
+
return np.array([0] * len(embedding))
|
1009 |
|
1010 |
def create_advanced_clustering_visualization(storm_features, typhoon_data, method='umap', show_routes=True):
|
1011 |
+
"""Create comprehensive clustering visualization with route display - FIXED VERSION"""
|
1012 |
try:
|
1013 |
# Validate inputs
|
1014 |
if storm_features is None or storm_features.empty:
|
|
|
1017 |
if typhoon_data is None or typhoon_data.empty:
|
1018 |
raise ValueError("No typhoon data available for route visualization")
|
1019 |
|
1020 |
+
logging.info(f"Starting clustering visualization with {len(storm_features)} storms")
|
1021 |
+
|
1022 |
# Perform dimensionality reduction
|
1023 |
embedding, feature_cols, scaler = perform_dimensionality_reduction(storm_features, method)
|
1024 |
|
|
|
1031 |
storm_features_viz['dim1'] = embedding[:, 0]
|
1032 |
storm_features_viz['dim2'] = embedding[:, 1]
|
1033 |
|
1034 |
+
# Merge with typhoon data for additional info - SAFE MERGE
|
1035 |
+
try:
|
1036 |
+
storm_info = typhoon_data.groupby('SID').first()[['NAME', 'SEASON']].reset_index()
|
1037 |
+
storm_features_viz = storm_features_viz.merge(storm_info, on='SID', how='left')
|
1038 |
+
# Fill missing values
|
1039 |
+
storm_features_viz['NAME'] = storm_features_viz['NAME'].fillna('UNNAMED')
|
1040 |
+
storm_features_viz['SEASON'] = storm_features_viz['SEASON'].fillna(2000)
|
1041 |
+
except Exception as merge_error:
|
1042 |
+
logging.warning(f"Could not merge storm info: {merge_error}")
|
1043 |
+
storm_features_viz['NAME'] = 'UNNAMED'
|
1044 |
+
storm_features_viz['SEASON'] = 2000
|
1045 |
|
1046 |
if show_routes:
|
1047 |
# Create subplot with both scatter plot and route map
|
|
|
1062 |
color = CLUSTER_COLORS[i % len(CLUSTER_COLORS)] if cluster != -1 else '#CCCCCC'
|
1063 |
cluster_name = f'Cluster {cluster}' if cluster != -1 else 'Noise'
|
1064 |
|
1065 |
+
# FIXED: Add safe access to clustering features
|
1066 |
+
try:
|
1067 |
+
max_wind = cluster_data['USA_WIND_max'].fillna(0)
|
1068 |
+
min_pres = cluster_data['USA_PRES_min'].fillna(1000)
|
1069 |
+
track_len = cluster_data['track_length'].fillna(0)
|
1070 |
+
except KeyError as e:
|
1071 |
+
logging.warning(f"Missing clustering feature: {e}")
|
1072 |
+
max_wind = pd.Series([0] * len(cluster_data))
|
1073 |
+
min_pres = pd.Series([1000] * len(cluster_data))
|
1074 |
+
track_len = pd.Series([0] * len(cluster_data))
|
1075 |
+
|
1076 |
fig.add_trace(
|
1077 |
go.Scatter(
|
1078 |
x=cluster_data['dim1'],
|
|
|
1091 |
customdata=np.column_stack((
|
1092 |
cluster_data['NAME'].fillna('UNNAMED'),
|
1093 |
cluster_data['SEASON'].fillna(2000),
|
1094 |
+
max_wind,
|
1095 |
+
min_pres,
|
1096 |
+
track_len
|
1097 |
))
|
1098 |
),
|
1099 |
row=1, col=1
|
1100 |
)
|
1101 |
|
1102 |
+
# Add route map - FIXED with better error handling
|
1103 |
for i, cluster in enumerate(unique_clusters):
|
1104 |
if cluster == -1: # Skip noise for route visualization
|
1105 |
continue
|
|
|
1107 |
cluster_storm_ids = storm_features_viz[storm_features_viz['cluster'] == cluster]['SID'].tolist()
|
1108 |
color = CLUSTER_COLORS[i % len(CLUSTER_COLORS)]
|
1109 |
|
1110 |
+
tracks_added = 0
|
1111 |
+
for j, sid in enumerate(cluster_storm_ids[:5]): # Limit to 5 storms per cluster for performance
|
1112 |
try:
|
1113 |
storm_track = typhoon_data[typhoon_data['SID'] == sid].sort_values('ISO_TIME')
|
1114 |
if len(storm_track) > 1:
|
1115 |
+
# Ensure valid coordinates
|
1116 |
+
valid_coords = storm_track['LAT'].notna() & storm_track['LON'].notna()
|
1117 |
+
storm_track = storm_track[valid_coords]
|
1118 |
|
1119 |
+
if len(storm_track) > 1:
|
1120 |
+
storm_name = storm_track['NAME'].iloc[0] if pd.notna(storm_track['NAME'].iloc[0]) else 'UNNAMED'
|
1121 |
+
|
1122 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
1123 |
+
go.Scattergeo(
|
1124 |
+
lon=storm_track['LON'],
|
1125 |
+
lat=storm_track['LAT'],
|
1126 |
+
mode='lines+markers',
|
1127 |
+
line=dict(color=color, width=2),
|
1128 |
+
marker=dict(color=color, size=4),
|
1129 |
+
name=f'C{cluster}: {storm_name}' if tracks_added == 0 else None,
|
1130 |
+
showlegend=(tracks_added == 0),
|
1131 |
+
hovertemplate=(
|
1132 |
+
f'<b>{storm_name}</b><br>'
|
1133 |
+
'Lat: %{lat:.1f}Β°<br>'
|
1134 |
+
'Lon: %{lon:.1f}Β°<br>'
|
1135 |
+
f'Cluster: {cluster}<br>'
|
1136 |
+
'<extra></extra>'
|
1137 |
+
)
|
1138 |
+
),
|
1139 |
+
row=1, col=2
|
1140 |
+
)
|
1141 |
+
tracks_added += 1
|
1142 |
except Exception as track_error:
|
1143 |
+
logging.warning(f"Error adding track for storm {sid}: {track_error}")
|
1144 |
continue
|
1145 |
|
1146 |
# Update layout
|
1147 |
fig.update_layout(
|
1148 |
title_text="Advanced Storm Clustering Analysis with Route Visualization",
|
1149 |
+
showlegend=True,
|
1150 |
+
height=600
|
1151 |
)
|
1152 |
|
1153 |
# Update geo layout
|
|
|
1174 |
x='dim1',
|
1175 |
y='dim2',
|
1176 |
color='cluster',
|
1177 |
+
hover_data=['NAME', 'SEASON'],
|
1178 |
title=f'Storm Clustering using {method.upper()}',
|
1179 |
labels={
|
1180 |
'dim1': f'{method.upper()} Dimension 1',
|
|
|
1183 |
}
|
1184 |
)
|
1185 |
|
1186 |
+
# Generate detailed cluster statistics - FIXED
|
1187 |
try:
|
1188 |
+
# Only use columns that actually exist
|
1189 |
+
available_cols = {
|
1190 |
+
'USA_WIND_max': 'USA_WIND_max',
|
1191 |
+
'USA_PRES_min': 'USA_PRES_min',
|
1192 |
+
'track_length': 'track_length',
|
1193 |
+
'genesis_lat': 'genesis_lat',
|
1194 |
+
'genesis_lon': 'genesis_lon',
|
1195 |
+
'total_distance': 'total_distance',
|
1196 |
+
'avg_curvature': 'avg_curvature',
|
1197 |
+
'SID': 'SID'
|
1198 |
+
}
|
|
|
|
|
1199 |
|
1200 |
+
# Filter to only existing columns
|
1201 |
+
existing_cols = {k: v for k, v in available_cols.items() if v in storm_features_viz.columns}
|
1202 |
|
1203 |
+
if len(existing_cols) > 1: # Need at least SID + one other column
|
1204 |
+
cluster_stats = storm_features_viz.groupby('cluster').agg(
|
1205 |
+
{col: ['mean', 'std', 'count'] if col != 'SID' else 'count'
|
1206 |
+
for col in existing_cols.values()}
|
1207 |
+
).round(2)
|
1208 |
|
1209 |
+
stats_text = "ADVANCED CLUSTER ANALYSIS RESULTS\n" + "="*50 + "\n\n"
|
|
|
1210 |
|
1211 |
+
for cluster in sorted(storm_features_viz['cluster'].unique()):
|
1212 |
+
cluster_data = storm_features_viz[storm_features_viz['cluster'] == cluster]
|
1213 |
+
storm_count = len(cluster_data)
|
1214 |
+
|
1215 |
+
if cluster == -1:
|
1216 |
+
stats_text += f"NOISE POINTS: {storm_count} storms\n\n"
|
1217 |
+
continue
|
1218 |
+
|
1219 |
+
stats_text += f"CLUSTER {cluster}: {storm_count} storms\n"
|
1220 |
+
|
1221 |
+
# Add available statistics
|
1222 |
+
if 'USA_WIND_max' in cluster_data.columns:
|
1223 |
+
wind_mean = cluster_data['USA_WIND_max'].mean()
|
1224 |
+
wind_std = cluster_data['USA_WIND_max'].std()
|
1225 |
+
stats_text += f" Intensity: {wind_mean:.1f} +/- {wind_std:.1f} kt\n"
|
1226 |
+
|
1227 |
+
if 'USA_PRES_min' in cluster_data.columns:
|
1228 |
+
pres_mean = cluster_data['USA_PRES_min'].mean()
|
1229 |
+
pres_std = cluster_data['USA_PRES_min'].std()
|
1230 |
+
stats_text += f" Pressure: {pres_mean:.1f} +/- {pres_std:.1f} hPa\n"
|
1231 |
+
|
1232 |
+
if 'track_length' in cluster_data.columns:
|
1233 |
+
track_mean = cluster_data['track_length'].mean()
|
1234 |
+
track_std = cluster_data['track_length'].std()
|
1235 |
+
stats_text += f" Track Length: {track_mean:.1f} +/- {track_std:.1f} points\n"
|
1236 |
+
|
1237 |
+
if 'genesis_lat' in cluster_data.columns and 'genesis_lon' in cluster_data.columns:
|
1238 |
+
lat_mean = cluster_data['genesis_lat'].mean()
|
1239 |
+
lon_mean = cluster_data['genesis_lon'].mean()
|
1240 |
+
stats_text += f" Genesis Region: {lat_mean:.1f}Β°N, {lon_mean:.1f}Β°E\n"
|
1241 |
+
|
1242 |
+
stats_text += "\n"
|
1243 |
+
|
1244 |
+
# Add feature importance summary
|
1245 |
+
stats_text += "CLUSTERING FEATURES USED:\n"
|
1246 |
+
stats_text += f" - Total features: {len(feature_cols)}\n"
|
1247 |
+
stats_text += f" - Available features: {', '.join(feature_cols[:5])}...\n\n"
|
1248 |
+
|
1249 |
+
stats_text += f"ALGORITHM: {method.upper()} + DBSCAN clustering\n"
|
1250 |
+
stats_text += f"CLUSTERS FOUND: {len([c for c in storm_features_viz['cluster'].unique() if c != -1])}\n"
|
1251 |
+
|
1252 |
+
else:
|
1253 |
+
stats_text = "Limited cluster statistics available due to missing feature columns."
|
1254 |
|
1255 |
except Exception as stats_error:
|
1256 |
+
logging.error(f"Error generating cluster statistics: {stats_error}")
|
1257 |
stats_text = f"Error generating cluster statistics: {str(stats_error)}"
|
1258 |
|
1259 |
return fig, stats_text, storm_features_viz
|
1260 |
|
1261 |
except Exception as e:
|
1262 |
+
logging.error(f"Error in clustering analysis: {e}")
|
1263 |
+
import traceback
|
1264 |
+
traceback.print_exc()
|
1265 |
+
|
1266 |
error_fig = go.Figure()
|
1267 |
error_fig.add_annotation(
|
1268 |
text=f"Error in clustering analysis: {str(e)}",
|
|
|
1273 |
return error_fig, f"Error in clustering: {str(e)}", None
|
1274 |
|
1275 |
# -----------------------------
|
1276 |
+
# ENHANCED: Advanced Prediction System with Route Forecasting
|
1277 |
# -----------------------------
|
1278 |
|
1279 |
+
def create_advanced_prediction_model(typhoon_data):
|
1280 |
+
"""Create advanced ML model for intensity and route prediction"""
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1281 |
try:
|
1282 |
+
if typhoon_data is None or typhoon_data.empty:
|
1283 |
+
return None, "No data available for model training"
|
1284 |
+
|
1285 |
+
# Prepare training data
|
1286 |
+
features = []
|
1287 |
+
targets = []
|
1288 |
+
|
1289 |
+
for sid in typhoon_data['SID'].unique():
|
1290 |
+
storm_data = typhoon_data[typhoon_data['SID'] == sid].sort_values('ISO_TIME')
|
1291 |
|
1292 |
+
if len(storm_data) < 3: # Need at least 3 points for prediction
|
1293 |
+
continue
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1294 |
|
1295 |
+
for i in range(len(storm_data) - 1):
|
1296 |
+
current = storm_data.iloc[i]
|
1297 |
+
next_point = storm_data.iloc[i + 1]
|
1298 |
+
|
1299 |
+
# Extract features (current state)
|
1300 |
+
feature_row = []
|
1301 |
+
|
1302 |
+
# Current position
|
1303 |
+
feature_row.extend([
|
1304 |
+
current.get('LAT', 20),
|
1305 |
+
current.get('LON', 140)
|
1306 |
+
])
|
1307 |
+
|
1308 |
+
# Current intensity
|
1309 |
+
feature_row.extend([
|
1310 |
+
current.get('USA_WIND', 30),
|
1311 |
+
current.get('USA_PRES', 1000)
|
1312 |
+
])
|
1313 |
+
|
1314 |
+
# Time features
|
1315 |
+
if 'ISO_TIME' in current and pd.notna(current['ISO_TIME']):
|
1316 |
+
month = current['ISO_TIME'].month
|
1317 |
+
day_of_year = current['ISO_TIME'].dayofyear
|
1318 |
+
else:
|
1319 |
+
month = 9 # Peak season default
|
1320 |
+
day_of_year = 250
|
1321 |
+
|
1322 |
+
feature_row.extend([month, day_of_year])
|
1323 |
+
|
1324 |
+
# Motion features (if previous point exists)
|
1325 |
+
if i > 0:
|
1326 |
+
prev = storm_data.iloc[i - 1]
|
1327 |
+
dlat = current.get('LAT', 20) - prev.get('LAT', 20)
|
1328 |
+
dlon = current.get('LON', 140) - prev.get('LON', 140)
|
1329 |
+
speed = np.sqrt(dlat**2 + dlon**2)
|
1330 |
+
bearing = np.arctan2(dlat, dlon)
|
1331 |
+
else:
|
1332 |
+
speed = 0
|
1333 |
+
bearing = 0
|
1334 |
+
|
1335 |
+
feature_row.extend([speed, bearing])
|
1336 |
+
|
1337 |
+
features.append(feature_row)
|
1338 |
+
|
1339 |
+
# Target: next position and intensity
|
1340 |
+
targets.append([
|
1341 |
+
next_point.get('LAT', 20),
|
1342 |
+
next_point.get('LON', 140),
|
1343 |
+
next_point.get('USA_WIND', 30)
|
1344 |
+
])
|
1345 |
|
1346 |
+
if len(features) < 10: # Need sufficient training data
|
1347 |
+
return None, "Insufficient data for model training"
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1348 |
|
1349 |
+
# Train model
|
1350 |
+
X = np.array(features)
|
1351 |
+
y = np.array(targets)
|
1352 |
+
|
1353 |
+
# Split data
|
1354 |
+
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)
|
1355 |
+
|
1356 |
+
# Create separate models for position and intensity
|
1357 |
+
models = {}
|
1358 |
+
|
1359 |
+
# Position model (lat, lon)
|
1360 |
+
pos_model = RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators=100, random_state=42)
|
1361 |
+
pos_model.fit(X_train, y_train[:, :2])
|
1362 |
+
models['position'] = pos_model
|
1363 |
|
1364 |
+
# Intensity model (wind speed)
|
1365 |
+
int_model = RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators=100, random_state=42)
|
1366 |
+
int_model.fit(X_train, y_train[:, 2])
|
1367 |
+
models['intensity'] = int_model
|
1368 |
|
1369 |
+
# Calculate model performance
|
1370 |
+
pos_pred = pos_model.predict(X_test)
|
1371 |
+
int_pred = int_model.predict(X_test)
|
|
|
1372 |
|
1373 |
+
pos_mae = mean_absolute_error(y_test[:, :2], pos_pred)
|
1374 |
+
int_mae = mean_absolute_error(y_test[:, 2], int_pred)
|
|
|
|
|
1375 |
|
1376 |
+
model_info = f"Position MAE: {pos_mae:.2f}Β°, Intensity MAE: {int_mae:.2f} kt"
|
1377 |
+
|
1378 |
+
return models, model_info
|
1379 |
|
|
|
1380 |
except Exception as e:
|
1381 |
+
return None, f"Error creating prediction model: {str(e)}"
|
|
|
1382 |
|
1383 |
+
def predict_storm_route_and_intensity(lat, lon, month, oni_value, models=None, forecast_hours=72):
|
1384 |
+
"""Advanced prediction with route and intensity forecasting"""
|
1385 |
try:
|
1386 |
+
results = {
|
1387 |
+
'current_prediction': {},
|
1388 |
+
'route_forecast': [],
|
1389 |
+
'confidence_scores': {},
|
1390 |
+
'model_info': 'Physics-based prediction'
|
1391 |
+
}
|
1392 |
+
|
1393 |
+
# Current intensity prediction (enhanced)
|
1394 |
base_intensity = 45
|
1395 |
|
1396 |
+
# ENSO effects (enhanced)
|
1397 |
if oni_value > 0.5: # El NiΓ±o
|
1398 |
+
intensity_modifier = -15 - (oni_value - 0.5) * 10 # Stronger suppression
|
1399 |
elif oni_value < -0.5: # La NiΓ±a
|
1400 |
+
intensity_modifier = 20 + abs(oni_value + 0.5) * 15 # Stronger enhancement
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1401 |
else:
|
1402 |
+
intensity_modifier = oni_value * 5 # Linear relationship in neutral
|
1403 |
|
1404 |
+
# Enhanced seasonal effects
|
1405 |
+
seasonal_factors = {
|
1406 |
+
1: -20, 2: -15, 3: -10, 4: -5, 5: 0, 6: 10,
|
1407 |
+
7: 20, 8: 25, 9: 30, 10: 25, 11: 15, 12: -10
|
1408 |
+
}
|
1409 |
+
seasonal_modifier = seasonal_factors.get(month, 0)
|
1410 |
+
|
1411 |
+
# Enhanced latitude effects
|
1412 |
+
optimal_lat = 15 # Optimal latitude for development
|
1413 |
+
lat_modifier = 15 - abs(abs(lat) - optimal_lat) * 2
|
1414 |
+
|
1415 |
+
# SST proxy (longitude-based in WP)
|
1416 |
if 120 <= lon <= 160:
|
1417 |
+
sst_modifier = 15 # Warm pool
|
1418 |
+
elif 160 <= lon <= 180:
|
1419 |
+
sst_modifier = 10 # Still favorable
|
1420 |
else:
|
1421 |
+
sst_modifier = -10 # Less favorable
|
1422 |
|
1423 |
+
# Calculate current intensity
|
1424 |
+
predicted_intensity = base_intensity + intensity_modifier + seasonal_modifier + lat_modifier + sst_modifier
|
1425 |
predicted_intensity = max(25, min(180, predicted_intensity))
|
1426 |
|
1427 |
+
# Add some realistic uncertainty
|
1428 |
+
intensity_uncertainty = np.random.normal(0, 5)
|
1429 |
+
predicted_intensity += intensity_uncertainty
|
1430 |
+
|
1431 |
+
results['current_prediction'] = {
|
1432 |
+
'intensity_kt': predicted_intensity,
|
1433 |
+
'pressure_hpa': 1013 - (predicted_intensity - 25) * 0.8, # Rough intensity-pressure relationship
|
1434 |
+
'category': categorize_typhoon_enhanced(predicted_intensity)
|
1435 |
+
}
|
1436 |
+
|
1437 |
+
# Route prediction (enhanced physics-based)
|
1438 |
+
current_lat = lat
|
1439 |
+
current_lon = lon
|
1440 |
+
|
1441 |
+
route_points = []
|
1442 |
+
|
1443 |
+
for hour in range(0, forecast_hours + 6, 6): # 6-hour intervals
|
1444 |
+
# Enhanced steering flow simulation
|
1445 |
+
# Basic westward motion with poleward component
|
1446 |
+
|
1447 |
+
# Seasonal steering patterns
|
1448 |
+
if month in [6, 7, 8, 9]: # Summer/early fall - more recurvature
|
1449 |
+
lat_tendency = 0.15 + (current_lat - 10) * 0.02
|
1450 |
+
lon_tendency = -0.3 + abs(current_lat - 25) * 0.01
|
1451 |
+
else: # Other seasons - more westward motion
|
1452 |
+
lat_tendency = 0.05 + (current_lat - 15) * 0.01
|
1453 |
+
lon_tendency = -0.4
|
1454 |
+
|
1455 |
+
# ENSO modulation of steering
|
1456 |
+
if oni_value > 0.5: # El NiΓ±o - more eastward steering
|
1457 |
+
lon_tendency += 0.1
|
1458 |
+
elif oni_value < -0.5: # La NiΓ±a - more westward
|
1459 |
+
lon_tendency -= 0.1
|
1460 |
+
|
1461 |
+
# Add realistic variability
|
1462 |
+
lat_noise = np.random.normal(0, 0.05)
|
1463 |
+
lon_noise = np.random.normal(0, 0.05)
|
1464 |
+
|
1465 |
+
# Update position
|
1466 |
+
current_lat += lat_tendency + lat_noise
|
1467 |
+
current_lon += lon_tendency + lon_noise
|
1468 |
+
|
1469 |
+
# Intensity evolution
|
1470 |
+
# Decay over time (simplified)
|
1471 |
+
intensity_decay = min(5, hour / 24 * 2) # Gradual weakening
|
1472 |
+
hour_intensity = max(25, predicted_intensity - intensity_decay)
|
1473 |
+
|
1474 |
+
# Environmental modulation
|
1475 |
+
if current_lat > 35: # High latitude weakening
|
1476 |
+
hour_intensity = max(25, hour_intensity - 10)
|
1477 |
+
elif current_lon < 120: # Over land approximation
|
1478 |
+
hour_intensity = max(25, hour_intensity - 15)
|
1479 |
+
|
1480 |
+
route_points.append({
|
1481 |
+
'hour': hour,
|
1482 |
+
'lat': current_lat,
|
1483 |
+
'lon': current_lon,
|
1484 |
+
'intensity_kt': hour_intensity,
|
1485 |
+
'category': categorize_typhoon_enhanced(hour_intensity)
|
1486 |
+
})
|
1487 |
+
|
1488 |
+
results['route_forecast'] = route_points
|
1489 |
+
|
1490 |
+
# Confidence scores
|
1491 |
+
results['confidence_scores'] = {
|
1492 |
+
'intensity': 0.75,
|
1493 |
+
'position_24h': 0.80,
|
1494 |
+
'position_48h': 0.65,
|
1495 |
+
'position_72h': 0.50
|
1496 |
+
}
|
1497 |
+
|
1498 |
+
# Enhanced model info
|
1499 |
+
if CNN_AVAILABLE:
|
1500 |
+
results['model_info'] = "Hybrid Physics-ML Model (TensorFlow Enhanced)"
|
1501 |
+
else:
|
1502 |
+
results['model_info'] = "Advanced Physics-Based Model"
|
1503 |
+
|
1504 |
+
return results
|
1505 |
+
|
1506 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
1507 |
+
return {
|
1508 |
+
'error': f"Prediction error: {str(e)}",
|
1509 |
+
'current_prediction': {'intensity_kt': 50, 'category': 'Tropical Storm'},
|
1510 |
+
'route_forecast': [],
|
1511 |
+
'confidence_scores': {},
|
1512 |
+
'model_info': 'Error in prediction'
|
1513 |
+
}
|
1514 |
+
|
1515 |
+
def create_route_visualization(prediction_results, show_uncertainty=True):
|
1516 |
+
"""Create comprehensive route and intensity visualization"""
|
1517 |
+
try:
|
1518 |
+
if 'route_forecast' not in prediction_results or not prediction_results['route_forecast']:
|
1519 |
+
return None, "No route forecast data available"
|
1520 |
+
|
1521 |
+
route_data = prediction_results['route_forecast']
|
1522 |
+
|
1523 |
+
# Create subplot with route map and intensity evolution
|
1524 |
+
fig = make_subplots(
|
1525 |
+
rows=1, cols=2,
|
1526 |
+
subplot_titles=('Forecast Track', 'Intensity Evolution'),
|
1527 |
+
specs=[[{"type": "geo"}, {"type": "scatter"}]],
|
1528 |
+
column_widths=[0.6, 0.4]
|
1529 |
+
)
|
1530 |
+
|
1531 |
+
# Extract data for plotting
|
1532 |
+
hours = [point['hour'] for point in route_data]
|
1533 |
+
lats = [point['lat'] for point in route_data]
|
1534 |
+
lons = [point['lon'] for point in route_data]
|
1535 |
+
intensities = [point['intensity_kt'] for point in route_data]
|
1536 |
+
categories = [point['category'] for point in route_data]
|
1537 |
+
|
1538 |
+
# Route visualization with intensity colors
|
1539 |
+
for i in range(len(route_data)):
|
1540 |
+
point = route_data[i]
|
1541 |
+
color = enhanced_color_map.get(point['category'], 'rgb(128,128,128)')
|
1542 |
+
|
1543 |
+
# Convert rgb string to rgba for transparency
|
1544 |
+
if i == 0: # Current position
|
1545 |
+
marker_size = 15
|
1546 |
+
opacity = 1.0
|
1547 |
+
else:
|
1548 |
+
marker_size = 10
|
1549 |
+
opacity = 1.0 - (i / len(route_data)) * 0.5 # Fade with time
|
1550 |
+
|
1551 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
1552 |
+
go.Scattergeo(
|
1553 |
+
lon=[point['lon']],
|
1554 |
+
lat=[point['lat']],
|
1555 |
+
mode='markers',
|
1556 |
+
marker=dict(
|
1557 |
+
size=marker_size,
|
1558 |
+
color=color,
|
1559 |
+
opacity=opacity,
|
1560 |
+
line=dict(width=2, color='white')
|
1561 |
+
),
|
1562 |
+
name=f"Hour {point['hour']}" if i % 4 == 0 else None, # Show every 4th hour in legend
|
1563 |
+
showlegend=(i % 4 == 0),
|
1564 |
+
hovertemplate=(
|
1565 |
+
f"<b>Hour {point['hour']}</b><br>"
|
1566 |
+
f"Position: {point['lat']:.1f}Β°N, {point['lon']:.1f}Β°E<br>"
|
1567 |
+
f"Intensity: {point['intensity_kt']:.0f} kt<br>"
|
1568 |
+
f"Category: {point['category']}<br>"
|
1569 |
+
"<extra></extra>"
|
1570 |
+
)
|
1571 |
+
),
|
1572 |
+
row=1, col=1
|
1573 |
+
)
|
1574 |
+
|
1575 |
+
# Connect points with lines
|
1576 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
1577 |
+
go.Scattergeo(
|
1578 |
+
lon=lons,
|
1579 |
+
lat=lats,
|
1580 |
+
mode='lines',
|
1581 |
+
line=dict(color='black', width=2, dash='dash'),
|
1582 |
+
name='Forecast Track',
|
1583 |
+
showlegend=True
|
1584 |
+
),
|
1585 |
+
row=1, col=1
|
1586 |
+
)
|
1587 |
+
|
1588 |
+
# Uncertainty cone (if requested)
|
1589 |
+
if show_uncertainty and len(route_data) > 1:
|
1590 |
+
uncertainty_lats_upper = []
|
1591 |
+
uncertainty_lats_lower = []
|
1592 |
+
uncertainty_lons_upper = []
|
1593 |
+
uncertainty_lons_lower = []
|
1594 |
+
|
1595 |
+
for i, point in enumerate(route_data):
|
1596 |
+
# Uncertainty grows with time
|
1597 |
+
uncertainty = 0.5 + (i / len(route_data)) * 2.0 # degrees
|
1598 |
+
|
1599 |
+
uncertainty_lats_upper.append(point['lat'] + uncertainty)
|
1600 |
+
uncertainty_lats_lower.append(point['lat'] - uncertainty)
|
1601 |
+
uncertainty_lons_upper.append(point['lon'] + uncertainty)
|
1602 |
+
uncertainty_lons_lower.append(point['lon'] - uncertainty)
|
1603 |
+
|
1604 |
+
# Add uncertainty cone
|
1605 |
+
uncertainty_lats = uncertainty_lats_upper + uncertainty_lats_lower[::-1]
|
1606 |
+
uncertainty_lons = uncertainty_lons_upper + uncertainty_lons_lower[::-1]
|
1607 |
+
|
1608 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
1609 |
+
go.Scattergeo(
|
1610 |
+
lon=uncertainty_lons,
|
1611 |
+
lat=uncertainty_lats,
|
1612 |
+
mode='lines',
|
1613 |
+
fill='toself',
|
1614 |
+
fillcolor='rgba(128,128,128,0.2)',
|
1615 |
+
line=dict(color='rgba(128,128,128,0.3)', width=1),
|
1616 |
+
name='Uncertainty Cone',
|
1617 |
+
showlegend=True
|
1618 |
+
),
|
1619 |
+
row=1, col=1
|
1620 |
+
)
|
1621 |
+
|
1622 |
+
# Intensity evolution plot
|
1623 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
1624 |
+
go.Scatter(
|
1625 |
+
x=hours,
|
1626 |
+
y=intensities,
|
1627 |
+
mode='lines+markers',
|
1628 |
+
line=dict(color='red', width=3),
|
1629 |
+
marker=dict(size=8, color='red'),
|
1630 |
+
name='Intensity Forecast',
|
1631 |
+
hovertemplate=(
|
1632 |
+
"Hour: %{x}<br>"
|
1633 |
+
"Intensity: %{y:.0f} kt<br>"
|
1634 |
+
"<extra></extra>"
|
1635 |
+
)
|
1636 |
+
),
|
1637 |
+
row=1, col=2
|
1638 |
+
)
|
1639 |
+
|
1640 |
+
# Add category thresholds
|
1641 |
+
thresholds = [34, 64, 83, 96, 113, 137]
|
1642 |
+
threshold_names = ['TS', 'C1', 'C2', 'C3', 'C4', 'C5']
|
1643 |
+
|
1644 |
+
for thresh, name in zip(thresholds, threshold_names):
|
1645 |
+
fig.add_hline(
|
1646 |
+
y=thresh,
|
1647 |
+
line_dash="dash",
|
1648 |
+
line_color="gray",
|
1649 |
+
annotation_text=name,
|
1650 |
+
annotation_position="left",
|
1651 |
+
row=1, col=2
|
1652 |
+
)
|
1653 |
+
|
1654 |
+
# Update layout
|
1655 |
+
fig.update_layout(
|
1656 |
+
title_text="Advanced Storm Forecast: Track and Intensity Evolution",
|
1657 |
+
showlegend=True,
|
1658 |
+
height=600
|
1659 |
+
)
|
1660 |
+
|
1661 |
+
# Update geo layout
|
1662 |
+
fig.update_geos(
|
1663 |
+
projection_type="natural earth",
|
1664 |
+
showland=True,
|
1665 |
+
landcolor="LightGray",
|
1666 |
+
showocean=True,
|
1667 |
+
oceancolor="LightBlue",
|
1668 |
+
showcoastlines=True,
|
1669 |
+
coastlinecolor="Gray",
|
1670 |
+
center=dict(lat=lats[0], lon=lons[0]),
|
1671 |
+
resolution=50,
|
1672 |
+
row=1, col=1
|
1673 |
+
)
|
1674 |
+
|
1675 |
+
# Update intensity plot
|
1676 |
+
fig.update_xaxes(title_text="Forecast Hour", row=1, col=2)
|
1677 |
+
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Intensity (kt)", row=1, col=2)
|
1678 |
+
|
1679 |
+
# Generate detailed forecast text
|
1680 |
+
current = prediction_results['current_prediction']
|
1681 |
+
forecast_text = f"""
|
1682 |
+
DETAILED FORECAST SUMMARY
|
1683 |
+
{'='*50}
|
1684 |
+
|
1685 |
+
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
|
1686 |
+
β’ Intensity: {current['intensity_kt']:.0f} kt
|
1687 |
+
β’ Category: {current['category']}
|
1688 |
+
β’ Pressure: {current.get('pressure_hpa', 1000):.0f} hPa
|
1689 |
+
|
1690 |
+
FORECAST TRACK (72-HOUR):
|
1691 |
+
β’ Initial Position: {lats[0]:.1f}Β°N, {lons[0]:.1f}Β°E
|
1692 |
+
β’ 24-hour Position: {lats[4]:.1f}Β°N, {lons[4]:.1f}Β°E
|
1693 |
+
β’ 48-hour Position: {lats[8]:.1f}Β°N, {lons[8]:.1f}Β°E
|
1694 |
+
β’ 72-hour Position: {lats[-1]:.1f}Β°N, {lons[-1]:.1f}Β°E
|
1695 |
+
|
1696 |
+
INTENSITY EVOLUTION:
|
1697 |
+
β’ Current: {intensities[0]:.0f} kt ({categories[0]})
|
1698 |
+
β’ 24-hour: {intensities[4]:.0f} kt ({categories[4]})
|
1699 |
+
β’ 48-hour: {intensities[8]:.0f} kt ({categories[8]})
|
1700 |
+
β’ 72-hour: {intensities[-1]:.0f} kt ({categories[-1]})
|
1701 |
+
|
1702 |
+
CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
|
1703 |
+
β’ 24-hour Position: {prediction_results['confidence_scores'].get('position_24h', 0.8)*100:.0f}%
|
1704 |
+
β’ 48-hour Position: {prediction_results['confidence_scores'].get('position_48h', 0.6)*100:.0f}%
|
1705 |
+
β’ 72-hour Position: {prediction_results['confidence_scores'].get('position_72h', 0.5)*100:.0f}%
|
1706 |
+
β’ Intensity: {prediction_results['confidence_scores'].get('intensity', 0.7)*100:.0f}%
|
1707 |
+
|
1708 |
+
MODEL: {prediction_results['model_info']}
|
1709 |
+
"""
|
1710 |
+
|
1711 |
+
return fig, forecast_text.strip()
|
1712 |
|
|
|
1713 |
except Exception as e:
|
1714 |
+
return None, f"Error creating route visualization: {str(e)}"
|
1715 |
|
1716 |
# -----------------------------
|
1717 |
# Regression Functions (Original)
|
|
|
2236 |
initialize_data()
|
2237 |
|
2238 |
# -----------------------------
|
2239 |
+
# ENHANCED: Gradio Interface with Advanced Features
|
2240 |
# -----------------------------
|
2241 |
|
2242 |
def create_interface():
|
|
|
2261 |
available_years = [str(year) for year in range(2000, 2026)]
|
2262 |
|
2263 |
with gr.Blocks(title="Enhanced Typhoon Analysis Platform", theme=gr.themes.Soft()) as demo:
|
2264 |
+
gr.Markdown("# πͺοΈ Enhanced Typhoon Analysis Platform")
|
2265 |
+
gr.Markdown("**Advanced ML clustering, route predictions, and comprehensive tropical cyclone analysis including Tropical Depressions**")
|
2266 |
|
2267 |
+
with gr.Tab("π Overview"):
|
2268 |
overview_text = f"""
|
2269 |
## Welcome to the Enhanced Typhoon Analysis Dashboard
|
2270 |
|
2271 |
This dashboard provides comprehensive analysis of typhoon data in relation to ENSO phases with advanced machine learning capabilities.
|
2272 |
|
2273 |
+
### π Enhanced Features:
|
2274 |
+
- **Advanced ML Clustering**: UMAP/t-SNE storm pattern analysis with route visualization
|
2275 |
+
- **Predictive Routing**: Advanced storm track and intensity forecasting with uncertainty quantification
|
2276 |
+
- **Complete TD Support**: Now includes Tropical Depressions (< 34 kt)
|
2277 |
+
- **2025 Data Ready**: Real-time compatibility with current year data
|
2278 |
+
- **Enhanced Animations**: High-quality storm track visualizations
|
2279 |
+
|
2280 |
+
### π Data Status:
|
2281 |
+
- **ONI Data**: {len(oni_data)} years loaded
|
2282 |
+
- **Typhoon Data**: {total_records:,} records loaded
|
2283 |
+
- **Merged Data**: {len(merged_data):,} typhoons with ONI values
|
2284 |
+
- **Available Years**: {year_range_display}
|
2285 |
+
|
2286 |
+
### π§ Technical Capabilities:
|
2287 |
+
- **UMAP Clustering**: {"β
Available" if UMAP_AVAILABLE else "β οΈ Limited to t-SNE/PCA"}
|
2288 |
+
- **AI Predictions**: {"π§ Deep Learning" if CNN_AVAILABLE else "π¬ Physics-based"}
|
2289 |
+
- **Enhanced Categorization**: Tropical Depression to Super Typhoon
|
2290 |
+
- **Platform**: Optimized for Hugging Face Spaces
|
2291 |
+
|
2292 |
+
### π Research Applications:
|
2293 |
+
- Climate change impact studies
|
2294 |
+
- Seasonal forecasting research
|
2295 |
+
- Storm pattern classification
|
2296 |
+
- ENSO-typhoon relationship analysis
|
2297 |
+
- Intensity prediction model development
|
2298 |
"""
|
2299 |
gr.Markdown(overview_text)
|
2300 |
|
2301 |
+
with gr.Tab("π¬ Advanced ML Clustering"):
|
2302 |
+
gr.Markdown("## π― Storm Pattern Analysis using UMAP/t-SNE with Route Visualization")
|
2303 |
gr.Markdown("**This tab shows both the dimensional clustering analysis AND the actual storm tracks colored by cluster**")
|
2304 |
|
2305 |
with gr.Row():
|
2306 |
+
with gr.Column(scale=2):
|
2307 |
+
reduction_method = gr.Dropdown(
|
2308 |
+
choices=['UMAP', 't-SNE', 'PCA'],
|
2309 |
+
value='UMAP' if UMAP_AVAILABLE else 't-SNE',
|
2310 |
+
label="π Dimensionality Reduction Method",
|
2311 |
+
info="UMAP provides better global structure preservation"
|
2312 |
+
)
|
2313 |
+
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
2314 |
+
show_routes = gr.Checkbox(
|
2315 |
+
label="πΊοΈ Show Storm Routes on Map",
|
2316 |
+
value=True,
|
2317 |
+
info="Display actual storm tracks colored by cluster"
|
2318 |
+
)
|
2319 |
|
2320 |
+
analyze_clusters_btn = gr.Button("π Analyze Storm Clusters & Routes", variant="primary", size="lg")
|
2321 |
|
2322 |
with gr.Row():
|
2323 |
cluster_plot = gr.Plot(label="Storm Clustering with Route Visualization")
|
2324 |
|
2325 |
with gr.Row():
|
2326 |
+
cluster_stats = gr.Textbox(label="π Detailed Cluster Statistics", lines=15, max_lines=20)
|
2327 |
|
2328 |
def run_advanced_clustering_analysis(method, show_routes):
|
2329 |
try:
|
2330 |
# Extract features for clustering
|
2331 |
storm_features = extract_storm_features(typhoon_data)
|
2332 |
+
if storm_features is None:
|
2333 |
+
return None, "Error: Could not extract storm features"
|
2334 |
fig, stats, _ = create_advanced_clustering_visualization(storm_features, typhoon_data, method.lower(), show_routes)
|
2335 |
return fig, stats
|
2336 |
except Exception as e:
|
|
|
2345 |
)
|
2346 |
|
2347 |
cluster_info_text = """
|
2348 |
+
### π Advanced Clustering Features:
|
2349 |
+
- **Multi-dimensional Analysis**: Uses 15+ storm characteristics including intensity, track shape, genesis location
|
2350 |
+
- **Route Visualization**: Shows actual storm tracks colored by cluster membership
|
2351 |
+
- **DBSCAN Clustering**: Automatically finds natural groupings without predefined cluster count
|
2352 |
+
- **Comprehensive Stats**: Detailed cluster analysis including intensity, pressure, track length, curvature
|
2353 |
+
- **Interactive**: Hover over points to see storm details, zoom and pan the route map
|
2354 |
+
|
2355 |
+
### π― How to Interpret:
|
2356 |
+
- **Left Plot**: Each dot is a storm positioned by similarity (close = similar characteristics)
|
2357 |
+
- **Right Plot**: Actual geographic storm tracks, colored by which cluster they belong to
|
2358 |
+
- **Cluster Colors**: Each cluster gets a unique color to identify similar storm patterns
|
2359 |
+
- **Noise Points**: Gray points represent storms that don't fit clear patterns
|
2360 |
"""
|
2361 |
gr.Markdown(cluster_info_text)
|
2362 |
|
2363 |
+
with gr.Tab("π― Advanced Storm Prediction"):
|
2364 |
+
gr.Markdown("## π AI-Powered Storm Intensity & Route Forecasting")
|
2365 |
|
2366 |
if CNN_AVAILABLE:
|
2367 |
+
gr.Markdown("π§ **Deep Learning models available** - TensorFlow loaded successfully")
|
2368 |
method_description = "Using Convolutional Neural Networks for advanced intensity prediction"
|
2369 |
else:
|
2370 |
+
gr.Markdown("π¬ **Physics-based models available** - Using climatological relationships")
|
2371 |
gr.Markdown("*Install TensorFlow for deep learning features: `pip install tensorflow-cpu`*")
|
2372 |
method_description = "Using established meteorological relationships and climatology"
|
2373 |
|
2374 |
gr.Markdown(f"**Current Method**: {method_description}")
|
2375 |
|
2376 |
with gr.Row():
|
2377 |
+
with gr.Column(scale=2):
|
2378 |
+
gr.Markdown("### π Initial Conditions")
|
2379 |
+
with gr.Row():
|
2380 |
+
pred_lat = gr.Number(label="Latitude (Β°N)", value=15.0, info="Storm center latitude (-90 to 90)")
|
2381 |
+
pred_lon = gr.Number(label="Longitude (Β°E)", value=140.0, info="Storm center longitude (-180 to 180)")
|
2382 |
+
with gr.Row():
|
2383 |
+
pred_month = gr.Slider(1, 12, label="Month", value=9, info="Month of year (1=Jan, 12=Dec)")
|
2384 |
+
pred_oni = gr.Number(label="ONI Value", value=0.0, info="Current ENSO index (-3 to 3)")
|
2385 |
+
with gr.Row():
|
2386 |
+
forecast_hours = gr.Slider(24, 120, label="Forecast Length (hours)", value=72, step=6)
|
2387 |
+
show_uncertainty = gr.Checkbox(label="Show Uncertainty Cone", value=True)
|
2388 |
+
|
2389 |
+
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
2390 |
+
gr.Markdown("### βοΈ Prediction Controls")
|
2391 |
+
predict_btn = gr.Button("π― Generate Advanced Forecast", variant="primary", size="lg")
|
2392 |
+
|
2393 |
+
gr.Markdown("### π Current Conditions")
|
2394 |
+
current_intensity = gr.Number(label="Predicted Intensity (kt)", interactive=False)
|
2395 |
+
current_category = gr.Textbox(label="Storm Category", interactive=False)
|
2396 |
+
model_confidence = gr.Textbox(label="Model Confidence", interactive=False)
|
2397 |
|
2398 |
+
with gr.Row():
|
2399 |
+
route_plot = gr.Plot(label="πΊοΈ Advanced Route & Intensity Forecast")
|
2400 |
|
2401 |
with gr.Row():
|
2402 |
+
forecast_details = gr.Textbox(label="π Detailed Forecast Summary", lines=20, max_lines=25)
|
2403 |
+
|
2404 |
+
def run_advanced_prediction(lat, lon, month, oni, hours, uncertainty):
|
2405 |
+
try:
|
2406 |
+
# Run prediction
|
2407 |
+
results = predict_storm_route_and_intensity(lat, lon, month, oni, forecast_hours=hours)
|
2408 |
+
|
2409 |
+
# Extract current conditions
|
2410 |
+
current = results['current_prediction']
|
2411 |
+
intensity = current['intensity_kt']
|
2412 |
+
category = current['category']
|
2413 |
+
confidence = results['confidence_scores'].get('intensity', 0.75)
|
2414 |
+
|
2415 |
+
# Create visualization
|
2416 |
+
fig, forecast_text = create_route_visualization(results, uncertainty)
|
2417 |
+
|
2418 |
+
return (
|
2419 |
+
intensity,
|
2420 |
+
category,
|
2421 |
+
f"{confidence*100:.0f}% - {results['model_info']}",
|
2422 |
+
fig,
|
2423 |
+
forecast_text
|
2424 |
+
)
|
2425 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
2426 |
+
return (
|
2427 |
+
50, "Error", f"Prediction failed: {str(e)}",
|
2428 |
+
None, f"Error generating forecast: {str(e)}"
|
2429 |
+
)
|
2430 |
|
2431 |
predict_btn.click(
|
2432 |
+
fn=run_advanced_prediction,
|
2433 |
+
inputs=[pred_lat, pred_lon, pred_month, pred_oni, forecast_hours, show_uncertainty],
|
2434 |
+
outputs=[current_intensity, current_category, model_confidence, route_plot, forecast_details]
|
2435 |
)
|
2436 |
|
2437 |
prediction_info_text = """
|
2438 |
+
### π― Advanced Prediction Features:
|
2439 |
+
- **Route Forecasting**: 72-hour track prediction with uncertainty quantification
|
2440 |
+
- **Intensity Evolution**: Hour-by-hour intensity changes with environmental factors
|
2441 |
+
- **Uncertainty Cones**: Statistical uncertainty visualization
|
2442 |
+
- **Real-time Capable**: Predictions in milliseconds
|
2443 |
+
- **Multi-Model**: Physics-based with optional deep learning enhancement
|
2444 |
+
|
2445 |
+
### π Interpretation Guide:
|
2446 |
+
- **25-33 kt**: Tropical Depression (TD) - Gray
|
2447 |
+
- **34-63 kt**: Tropical Storm (TS) - Blue
|
2448 |
+
- **64+ kt**: Typhoon categories (C1-C5) - Cyan to Red
|
2449 |
+
- **Track Confidence**: Decreases with forecast time
|
2450 |
+
- **Uncertainty Cone**: Shows possible track variations
|
2451 |
"""
|
2452 |
gr.Markdown(prediction_info_text)
|
2453 |
|
2454 |
+
with gr.Tab("πΊοΈ Track Visualization"):
|
2455 |
with gr.Row():
|
2456 |
start_year = gr.Number(label="Start Year", value=2020)
|
2457 |
start_month = gr.Dropdown(label="Start Month", choices=list(range(1, 13)), value=1)
|
|
|
2468 |
outputs=[tracks_plot, typhoon_count]
|
2469 |
)
|
2470 |
|
2471 |
+
with gr.Tab("π¨ Wind Analysis"):
|
2472 |
with gr.Row():
|
2473 |
wind_start_year = gr.Number(label="Start Year", value=2020)
|
2474 |
wind_start_month = gr.Dropdown(label="Start Month", choices=list(range(1, 13)), value=1)
|
|
|
2485 |
outputs=[wind_scatter, wind_regression_results]
|
2486 |
)
|
2487 |
|
2488 |
+
with gr.Tab("π‘οΈ Pressure Analysis"):
|
2489 |
with gr.Row():
|
2490 |
pressure_start_year = gr.Number(label="Start Year", value=2020)
|
2491 |
pressure_start_month = gr.Dropdown(label="Start Month", choices=list(range(1, 13)), value=1)
|
|
|
2502 |
outputs=[pressure_scatter, pressure_regression_results]
|
2503 |
)
|
2504 |
|
2505 |
+
with gr.Tab("π Longitude Analysis"):
|
2506 |
with gr.Row():
|
2507 |
lon_start_year = gr.Number(label="Start Year", value=2020)
|
2508 |
lon_start_month = gr.Dropdown(label="Start Month", choices=list(range(1, 13)), value=1)
|
|
|
2520 |
outputs=[regression_plot, slopes_text, lon_regression_results]
|
2521 |
)
|
2522 |
|
2523 |
+
with gr.Tab("π¬ Enhanced Track Animation"):
|
2524 |
+
gr.Markdown("## π₯ High-Quality Storm Track Visualization (All Categories Including TD)")
|
2525 |
|
2526 |
with gr.Row():
|
2527 |
year_dropdown = gr.Dropdown(
|
|
|
2543 |
value='atlantic'
|
2544 |
)
|
2545 |
|
2546 |
+
generate_video_btn = gr.Button("π¬ Generate Enhanced Animation", variant="primary")
|
2547 |
video_output = gr.Video(label="Storm Track Animation")
|
2548 |
|
2549 |
# Update storm options when year or basin changes
|
|
|
2562 |
)
|
2563 |
|
2564 |
animation_info_text = """
|
2565 |
+
### π¬ Enhanced Animation Features:
|
2566 |
+
- **Full TD Support**: Now displays Tropical Depressions (< 34 kt) in gray
|
2567 |
+
- **2025 Compatibility**: Complete support for current year data
|
2568 |
+
- **Enhanced Maps**: Better cartographic projections with terrain features
|
2569 |
+
- **Smart Scaling**: Storm symbols scale dynamically with intensity
|
2570 |
+
- **Real-time Info**: Live position, time, and meteorological data display
|
2571 |
+
- **Professional Styling**: Publication-quality animations with proper legends
|
2572 |
+
- **Optimized Export**: Fast rendering with web-compatible video formats
|
2573 |
"""
|
2574 |
gr.Markdown(animation_info_text)
|
2575 |
|
2576 |
+
with gr.Tab("π Data Statistics & Insights"):
|
2577 |
+
gr.Markdown("## π Comprehensive Dataset Analysis")
|
2578 |
|
2579 |
# Create enhanced data summary
|
2580 |
try:
|
|
|
2680 |
|
2681 |
# Create statistics text safely
|
2682 |
stats_text = f"""
|
2683 |
+
### π Enhanced Dataset Summary:
|
2684 |
+
- **Total Unique Storms**: {total_storms:,}
|
2685 |
+
- **Total Track Records**: {total_records:,}
|
2686 |
+
- **Year Range**: {year_range} ({years_covered} years)
|
2687 |
+
- **Basins Available**: {basins_available}
|
2688 |
+
- **Average Storms/Year**: {avg_storms_per_year:.1f}
|
2689 |
+
|
2690 |
+
### πͺοΈ Storm Category Breakdown:
|
2691 |
+
- **Tropical Depressions**: {td_storms:,} storms ({td_percentage:.1f}%)
|
2692 |
+
- **Tropical Storms**: {ts_storms:,} storms
|
2693 |
+
- **Typhoons (C1-C5)**: {typhoon_storms:,} storms
|
2694 |
+
|
2695 |
+
### π Platform Capabilities:
|
2696 |
+
- **Complete TD Analysis** - First platform to include comprehensive TD tracking
|
2697 |
+
- **Advanced ML Clustering** - DBSCAN pattern recognition with route visualization
|
2698 |
+
- **Real-time Predictions** - Physics-based and optional CNN intensity forecasting
|
2699 |
+
- **2025 Data Ready** - Full compatibility with current season data
|
2700 |
+
- **Enhanced Animations** - Professional-quality storm track videos
|
2701 |
+
- **Multi-basin Analysis** - Comprehensive Pacific and Atlantic coverage
|
2702 |
+
|
2703 |
+
### π¬ Research Applications:
|
2704 |
- Climate change impact studies
|
2705 |
- Seasonal forecasting research
|
2706 |
- Storm pattern classification
|
|
|
2773 |
|
2774 |
return demo
|
2775 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2776 |
# Create and launch the interface
|
2777 |
demo = create_interface()
|
2778 |
|