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Joseph Spada
commited on
Commit
·
de22604
1
Parent(s):
1acd050
ss oasdi revenues slider and functionality
Browse files- app.py +52 -16
- graph_data.xlsx +0 -0
app.py
CHANGED
@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ data = data[[
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"Total Revenues",
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"Debt Balance",
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"Revenues ex SS OASDI",
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"Average Rate on Federal Debt",
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"GDP",
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"Net Interest"
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@@ -36,17 +37,24 @@ print(data)
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# %%
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baseline_interest_rate = 3.64
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#baseline_revenues = 15928.73
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baseline_cagr_revenues = 4.
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total_revenues_2024 = data.loc[2024, "
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total_revenues_2055_bl = data.loc[2055, "
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-
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# calculate the yearly increase in the interest rate based on the projected interest rate in 2054
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interest_rate_yearly_increase = (interest_rate - baseline_interest_rate) / (2055 - 2025) / 100
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# calculate the yearly increase in revenues based on the annual growth rate through 2055
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total_revenues_2055 = total_revenues_2024 * ((1 + (cagr_revenues / 100)) ** (2055 - 2024))
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revenues_yearly_increase = (total_revenues_2055 - total_revenues_2055_bl) / (2055 - 2025)
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# add a baseline net interest / revenues column
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data["Net Interest / Revenues (Baseline)"] = data["Net Interest"] / data["Total Revenues"]
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@@ -55,7 +63,7 @@ def plot_interest_coverage(interest_rate, cagr_revenues):
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data["Net Interest / Revenues ex SS OASDI (Baseline)"] = data["Net Interest"] / data["Revenues ex SS OASDI"]
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# add a baseline SS OASDI revenues column
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data["SS OASDI Revenues"] = data["Total Revenues"] - data["Revenues ex SS OASDI"]
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# add a projected average rate on federal debt column
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data["Average Rate on Federal Debt (Projected)"] = np.where(
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@@ -63,19 +71,28 @@ def plot_interest_coverage(interest_rate, cagr_revenues):
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data["Average Rate on Federal Debt"],
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data["Average Rate on Federal Debt"] + (interest_rate_yearly_increase * (data.index.astype(int) - 2024)))
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# add a projected revenues column
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data["Total Revenues (Projected)"] = np.where(
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data.index.astype(int) < 2025,
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data["Total Revenues"],
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data["Total Revenues"] + (revenues_yearly_increase * (data.index.astype(int) - 2024)))
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print(data.loc[2055, "Total Revenues (Projected)"])
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-
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# add a projected revenues ex SS OASDI column
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data["Revenues ex SS OASDI (Projected)"] = np.where(
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data.index.astype(int) < 2025,
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data["Revenues ex SS OASDI"],
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data["
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# add a projected interest / revenues column
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data["Net Interest / Revenues (Projected)"] = np.where(
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@@ -177,6 +194,9 @@ interest_rate_upperbound = 10
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cagr_revenues_lower_bound = 0
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cagr_revenues_upper_bound = 8
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with gr.Blocks() as interface:
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# Create the image output
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graph = gr.Image(type="filepath", label = "Graph", value = plot_interest_coverage(baseline_interest_rate, baseline_cagr_revenues))
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@@ -199,6 +219,15 @@ with gr.Blocks() as interface:
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label = "Compound Annual Growth Rate of Revenues through 2055"
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)
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gr.Markdown('<p style="font-size:11px;">Source: : CBO March 2025, The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055, author\'s ' \
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'calculations from Supplemental Table 1. Scenario of higher interest rate and revenues '
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'is author\'s calculations. Historical Social Security OASDI payroll tax revenue from Table 4-3 of the ' \
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@@ -208,14 +237,21 @@ with gr.Blocks() as interface:
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# Set up an action that updates the graph when the interest rate slider value changes
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interest_rate_slider.change(
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plot_interest_coverage,
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inputs = [interest_rate_slider, cagr_revenues_slider],
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outputs = graph
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)
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# Set up an action that updates the graph when the revenues slider value changes
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cagr_revenues_slider.change(
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plot_interest_coverage,
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inputs = [interest_rate_slider, cagr_revenues_slider],
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outputs = graph
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)
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"Total Revenues",
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"Debt Balance",
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"Revenues ex SS OASDI",
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+
"SS OASDI Revenues",
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"Average Rate on Federal Debt",
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"GDP",
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"Net Interest"
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# %%
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baseline_interest_rate = 3.64
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#baseline_revenues = 15928.73
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baseline_cagr_revenues = 4.44
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total_revenues_2024 = data.loc[2024, "Revenues ex SS OASDI"]
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total_revenues_2055_bl = data.loc[2055, "Revenues ex SS OASDI"]
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baseline_cagr_ssoasdi_revenues = 3.62
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ssoasdi_revenues_2024 = data.loc[2024, "SS OASDI Revenues"]
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ssoasdi_revenues_2055_bl = data.loc[2055, "SS OASDI Revenues"]
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def plot_interest_coverage(interest_rate, cagr_revenues, cagr_ssoasdi_revenues):
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# calculate the yearly increase in the interest rate based on the projected interest rate in 2054
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interest_rate_yearly_increase = (interest_rate - baseline_interest_rate) / (2055 - 2025) / 100
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# calculate the yearly increase in revenues based on the annual growth rate through 2055
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total_revenues_2055 = total_revenues_2024 * ((1 + (cagr_revenues / 100)) ** (2055 - 2024))
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revenues_yearly_increase = (total_revenues_2055 - total_revenues_2055_bl) / (2055 - 2025)
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# calculate the yearly increase in ss oasdi revenues based on the annual growth rate through 2055
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ssoasdi_revenues_2055 = ssoasdi_revenues_2024 * ((1 + (cagr_ssoasdi_revenues / 100)) ** (2055 - 2024))
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ssoasdi_revenues_yearly_increase = (ssoasdi_revenues_2055 - ssoasdi_revenues_2055_bl) / (2055 - 2025)
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# add a baseline net interest / revenues column
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data["Net Interest / Revenues (Baseline)"] = data["Net Interest"] / data["Total Revenues"]
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data["Net Interest / Revenues ex SS OASDI (Baseline)"] = data["Net Interest"] / data["Revenues ex SS OASDI"]
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# add a baseline SS OASDI revenues column
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# data["SS OASDI Revenues"] = data["Total Revenues"] - data["Revenues ex SS OASDI"]
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# add a projected average rate on federal debt column
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data["Average Rate on Federal Debt (Projected)"] = np.where(
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data["Average Rate on Federal Debt"],
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data["Average Rate on Federal Debt"] + (interest_rate_yearly_increase * (data.index.astype(int) - 2024)))
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# add a projected revenues ex SS OASDI column
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data["Revenues ex SS OASDI (Projected)"] = np.where(
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data.index.astype(int) < 2025,
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data["Revenues ex SS OASDI"],
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data["Revenues ex SS OASDI"] + (revenues_yearly_increase * (data.index.astype(int) - 2024)))
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# add a projected SS OASDI revenues column
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data["SS OASDI Revenues (Projected)"] = np.where(
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data.index.astype(int) < 2025,
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data["SS OASDI Revenues"],
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data["SS OASDI Revenues"] + (ssoasdi_revenues_yearly_increase * (data.index.astype(int) - 2024)))
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# add a projected revenues column
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#data["Total Revenues (Projected)"] = np.where(
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#data.index.astype(int) < 2025,
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#data["Total Revenues"],
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#data["Total Revenues"] + (revenues_yearly_increase * (data.index.astype(int) - 2024)))
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# add a projected revenues column
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data["Total Revenues (Projected)"] = data["Revenues ex SS OASDI (Projected)"] + data["SS OASDI Revenues (Projected)"]
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print(data.loc[2055, "Total Revenues (Projected)"])
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# add a projected interest / revenues column
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data["Net Interest / Revenues (Projected)"] = np.where(
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cagr_revenues_lower_bound = 0
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cagr_revenues_upper_bound = 8
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cagr_ssoasdi_revenues_lower_bound = 0
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cagr_ssoasdi_revenues_upper_bound = 8
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with gr.Blocks() as interface:
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# Create the image output
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graph = gr.Image(type="filepath", label = "Graph", value = plot_interest_coverage(baseline_interest_rate, baseline_cagr_revenues))
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label = "Compound Annual Growth Rate of Revenues through 2055"
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)
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# Create the slider input below the image for projected revenues
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cagr_ssoasdi_revenues_slider = gr.Slider(
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cagr_ssoasdi_revenues_lower_bound,
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cagr_ssoasdi_revenues_upper_bound,
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step = 0.01,
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value = baseline_cagr_ssoasdi_revenues,
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label = "Compound Annual Growth Rate of Revenues through 2055"
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)
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gr.Markdown('<p style="font-size:11px;">Source: : CBO March 2025, The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055, author\'s ' \
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'calculations from Supplemental Table 1. Scenario of higher interest rate and revenues '
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'is author\'s calculations. Historical Social Security OASDI payroll tax revenue from Table 4-3 of the ' \
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# Set up an action that updates the graph when the interest rate slider value changes
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interest_rate_slider.change(
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plot_interest_coverage,
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inputs = [interest_rate_slider, cagr_revenues_slider, cagr_ssoasdi_revenues_slider],
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outputs = graph
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)
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# Set up an action that updates the graph when the revenues slider value changes
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cagr_revenues_slider.change(
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plot_interest_coverage,
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inputs = [interest_rate_slider, cagr_revenues_slider, cagr_ssoasdi_revenues_slider],
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outputs = graph
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)
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# Set up an action that updates the graph when the ssoasdi revenues slider value changes
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cagr_ssoasdi_revenues_slider.change(
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plot_interest_coverage,
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inputs = [interest_rate_slider, cagr_revenues_slider, cagr_ssoasdi_revenues_slider],
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outputs = graph
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)
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graph_data.xlsx
CHANGED
Binary files a/graph_data.xlsx and b/graph_data.xlsx differ
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