news/GOOGL/2023.01.16/China's first population drop in six decades sounds alarm on demographic crisis.txt

BEIJING/HONG KONG, Jan 17 (Reuters) - China's population
fell last year for the first time in six decades, a historic
turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of
decline in its citizen numbers with profound implications for
its economy and the world.The country's National Bureau of Statistics reported a drop
of roughly 850,000 people for a population of 1.41175 billion in
2022, marking the first decline since 1961, the last year of
China's Great Famine.That possibly makes India the world's most populous nation.
U.N. experts predicted last year India would have a population
of 1.412 billion in 2022 though they did not expect the South
Asian nation to overtake China until this year.India, however, only collects population figures every 10
years and its latest census, originally scheduled for 2021, has
been delayed due to the pandemic.Long-term, U.N. experts see China's population shrinking by
109 million by 2050, more than triple the decline of their
previous forecast in 2019.That's caused domestic demographers to lament that China
will get old before it gets rich, slowing the economy as
revenues drop and government debt increases due to soaring
health and welfare costs."China's demographic and economic outlook is much bleaker
than expected. China will have to adjust its social, economic,
defense and foreign policies," said demographer Yi Fuxian.He added that the country's shrinking labor force and
downturn in manufacturing heft would further exacerbate high
prices and high inflation in the United States and Europe."Economic growth will have to depend more on
productivity growth," added Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at
Pinpoint Asset Management.Kang Yi, head of the national statistics bureau, dismissed
concerns about the population decline, telling reporters that
"overall labor supply still exceeds demand."China's birth rate last year was just 6.77 births per 1,000
people, down from a rate of 7.52 births in 2021 and marking the
lowest birth rate on record.The number of Chinese women of childbearing age, which the
government defines as aged 25 to 35, fell by about 4 million,
Kang said.The death rate, the highest since 1974 during the Cultural
Revolution, was 7.37 deaths per 1,000 people, which compares
with a rate of 7.18 deaths in 2021.ONE-CHILD POLICY IMPACTMuch of the demographic downturn is the result of China's
one-child policy imposed between 1980 and 2015 as well as
sky-high education costs that have put many Chinese off having
more than one child or even having any at all.The one-child policy and a traditional preference for boys
have also created a deep gender imbalance. The latest data shows
China with around 722 million males compared to 690 million
females. The imbalance, which is more pronounced in rural areas,
has led to fewer families being formed in recent years.The data was the top trending topic on Chinese social media
after the figures were released on Tuesday. One hashtag,"#Is it
really important to have offspring?" had hundreds of millions of
hits."The fundamental reason why women do not want to have
children lies not in themselves, but in the failure of society
and men to take up the responsibility of raising children. For
women who give birth this leads to a serious decline in their
quality of life and spiritual life," posted one netizen with the
username Joyful Ned.Chinese netizens have also previously complained about
pressure on newlyweds to have offspring as soon as possible,
reporting regular calls from their local government asking when
they can expect a pregnancy.China's stringent zero-COVID policies that were in place for
three years have caused further damage to the country's
demographic outlook, population experts have said.Local governments have since 2021 rolled out measures to
encourage people to have more babies, including tax deductions,
longer maternity leave and housing subsidies. President Xi
Jinping also said in October the government would enact further
supportive policies.The measures so far, however, have done little to arrest the
long-term trend.Online searches for baby strollers on China's Baidu search
engine dropped 17% in 2022 and are down 41% since 2018, while
searches for baby bottles are down more than a third since 2018.
In contrast, searches for elderly care homes surged eight-fold
last year.The reverse is playing out in India, where Google Trends
shows a 15% year-on-year increase in searches for baby bottles
in 2022, while searches for cribs rose almost five-fold.(Reporting by Albee Zhang in Beijing and Farah Master in Hong
Kong; Additional reporting by Kevin Yao and Ella Cao in Beijing
and Tanvi Mehta in New Delhi; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)