Update app.py

app.py

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import plotly.graph_objects as go
 import plotly.express as px
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
+from scipy.stats import norm
 
 
 st.set_page_config(page_title='Can you be truly random ?', layout = 'wide', page_icon = 'favicon.jpg', initial_sidebar_state = 'auto')
@@ -47,6 +48,7 @@ if 'stage' not in st.session_state:
     reset_game()
 
 st.title('Can your brain be random?')
+n_plays = 50
 
 if st.session_state.stage == 0:
     st.button('Begin', on_click=set_state, args=[1],use_container_width=True)
@@ -55,14 +57,15 @@ if st.session_state.stage == 0:
     
     st.markdown(f'You will be presented with {st.session_state.n_buttons} buttons to randomly choose from')
     
-    
-    st.session_state.max_history = st.slider(label="How much memory can I use?", min_value=2, max_value=20,value=10)
     st.markdown(f"At each round, I will try to predict which button you click")
+    st.session_state.max_history = st.slider(label="How much memory can I use?", min_value=2, max_value=20,value=10)
+    
     st.markdown(f"I will examine {st.session_state.max_history}-long sequences you played in the past")
     st.markdown('This will help me make a guess')
     st.markdown(f"If I get it right, I earn {st.session_state.n_buttons-1} point(s), otherwise you earn 1 point")
-    st.markdown(f'This is a fair game, as you have {(1-1/st.session_state.n_buttons):.0%} chances of winning')
-    st.subheader(f"Play as long as you want and try to beat me!")
+    st.subheader(f'This is a fair game, as you have {(1-1/st.session_state.n_buttons):.0%} chances of winning')
+    st.markdown(f"Play as long as you want and try to beat me!")
+    st.markdown(f"I will start showing you my strategy from {n_plays} rounds")
     
         
     
@@ -132,6 +135,8 @@ if st.session_state.stage == 1:
     pred,data = make_pred()
     
     choice = max(pred,key=pred.get)
+    progress = min(1.,float(len(st.session_state.history))/n_plays)
+    my_bar = st.progress(progress)
     
     cols = st.columns(st.session_state.n_buttons)
     for i,col in enumerate(cols):
@@ -141,25 +146,32 @@ if st.session_state.stage == 1:
     col1,col2 = st.columns(2)
     
     win,sharpe = compute_perf()
-    if sharpe > 0.1: 
-        emoticon = "🚀"
-    elif sharpe < 0:
-        emoticon = "📉"
-    else:
-        emoticon = "🧠"
-    text = f'%age win={win:.0%} Sharpe={sharpe:.3f} {emoticon}'
-    col1.subheader('My earnings so far...')
-    col1.write(text)
-    fig = px.line(st.session_state.pnl)
-    fig.update_layout(showlegend=False)
-    fig.update_layout(xaxis={'visible': True, 'showticklabels': False})
-    col1.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True)
-    
-    cols = ['you_played','similarity','weight','how_long_ago'] +  [f'same_{i}' for i in range(st.session_state.max_history)]
-    data = pd.DataFrame(data,columns=cols).set_index('how_long_ago').sort_values('weight',ascending=False)[:10]
-    col2.subheader(f'In the past, you played')
-    col2.dataframe(data.style.background_gradient(cmap=cm), use_container_width=True)
-    col2.subheader(f'So I chose {choice}, p={pred[choice]:.0%}')
     
+    if progress >= 1.:
+
+        if sharpe > 0.1: 
+            emoticon = "🚀"
+        elif sharpe < 0:
+            emoticon = "📉"
+        else:
+            emoticon = "🧠"
+        text = f'%age win={win:.0%} Sharpe={sharpe:.3f} {emoticon}'
+        col1.subheader('My earnings so far...')
+        col1.write(text)
+        dev = abs(st.session_state.pnl[-1] / st.session_state.max[-1])
+        chance = 1 - norm.cdf(dev)
+        col1.write(f'There is only {chance:.2%} chances of achieving this by chance')
+        fig = px.line(st.session_state.pnl)
+        fig.update_layout(showlegend=False)
+        fig.update_layout(xaxis={'visible': True, 'showticklabels': False})
+        col1.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True)
+
+        cols = ['you_played','similarity','weight','how_long_ago'] +  [f'same_{i}' for i in range(st.session_state.max_history)]
+        data = pd.DataFrame(data,columns=cols).set_index('how_long_ago').sort_values('weight',ascending=False)[:10]
+        col2.subheader(f'In the past, you played')
+        col2.dataframe(data.style.background_gradient(cmap=cm), use_container_width=True)
+        won = choice == st.session_state.history[-1]
+        col2.write(f'So I chose {choice} (p={pred[choice]:.0%}) and ' + ('won 🚀' if won else 'lost 📉'))
+        
     st.button('Start over', on_click=reset_game, args=[],
         use_container_width=True)