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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2023

Feb 4, 2023 - Press ISW

Download the PDF

Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Angela Howard, and Frederick W. Kagan

February 4, 7:15 pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Russian decisive offensive operations are unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline as the Russian military continues to prepare for an offensive in western Luhansk Oblast. Advisor to the exiled Ukrainian mayor of Mariupol, Petro Andryushenko, stated that Russian soldiers in Mariupol are telling residents that the Russian military ordered offensive operations against Vuhledar, areas southwest of Bakhmut, Zaporizhia City and Zaporizhia Oblast.[1] Andryushenko added that Russia is also building up forces at barracks and settlements on roads leading to frontline positions, and that Russia had brought an extra 10,000–15,000 troops to Mariupol and its outskirts.[2] Andryushenko noted the Russian forces reportedly have 30,000 troops in the greater Mariupol area. ISW continues to assess that Russia is concentrating troops and military equipment to stage a decisive offensive on the western Luhansk Oblast and Bakhmut areas.

Western and Ukrainian military officials have repeatedly noted that Russian forces are likely setting conditions to reach the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22.[3] ISW continues to observe Russian transfers of military equipment and elite units and the preparations of logistics in occupied Luhansk Oblast that support Western, Ukrainian, and Russian forecasts for the western Luhansk Oblast–Bakhmut offensive.[4] Russian forces are also intensifying attacks on Bakhmut while neglecting frontlines around Donetsk City.[5] The Ukrainian military has reported that Russian forces have not massed a powerful enough strike group to conduct an offensive in the Zaporizhia direction.[6]

Russian sources have been claiming Russian forces have been making territorial gains in Zaporizhia Oblast in late January, claims that ISW assesses were likely an information operation aimed at dispersing Ukrainian forces ahead of the decisive offensive in the east.[7] Andryushenko had previously stated that Russian officials were restricting Mariupol residents from accessing non-Russian information and were misrepresenting the situation on the frontlines, so Russian forces spreading rumors about an attack on Zaporizhia City may be a continuation of such information operations.[8] Andryushenko has also consistently reported increases of Russian forces in Mariupol throughout different stages of the war and noted that Russian forces are using the city as a military base due to its proximity to Russia.[9]

Russia has not shown the capacity to sustain the multiple major offensive operations that would be necessary to simultaneously reach the Donetsk Oblast administrative borders and take Zaporizhia City. Andryushenko’s reported Russian troop concentration of 30,000 servicemen in the Mariupol area is not sufficient to attack Zaporizhia, a city of roughly three-quarters of a million people, while continuing offensive operations to encircle Bakhmut and launching a new major attack in Luhansk Oblast. Russian conventional forces, reserves, and Wagner forces have committed tens of thousands of troops to the effort to seize Bakhmut already, reportedly suffering many thousands of casualties in that effort.[10] Bakhmut had a pre-war population of slightly over 70,000.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has launched a series of efforts to restructure and consolidate the mismatched blend of irregular forces supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine into Russia’s conventional military forces. A Russian MoD map published on February 3 included occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts in the Southern Military District’s (SMD) area of responsibility.[11] The SMD press service also announced that the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Militias are integrating into the Russian Armed Forces.[12] The UK MoD assessed on February 4 that integration of occupied Ukrainian territories into the SMD zone likely follows Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu‘s January 17 reform announcement about the formation of “self-sufficient force groupings” in Ukraine.[13] The UK MoD further assessed that these integration efforts aim to integrate occupied territories into Russia's long-term strategic posture but are unlikely to generate an impact on combat operations in the near term. ISW has also previously assessed that the Kremlin’s effort to reconstitute the Russian Armed Forces is a long-term commitment in its preparations both for a protracted war and to rebuild Russia’s conventional military might generally.[14]

The Russian MoD might be taking some steps to integrate volunteer battalions into its framework. A prominent Russian milblogger stated on February 4 that the Union of Volunteers of Donbas military units elected to create a single Russian Armed Forces Volunteer Corps from Russian Armed Forces volunteer units.[15] A DNR Telegram channel claimed on February 2 that Russian officials coerced mobilized miners into taking military oaths to Russia despite months of prior service.[16] Russian media outlet TASS also reported on February 4 that the Russian government expanded military medical commissions’ mandate to provide care for volunteer formations as well.[17]

The Russian MoD may be rushing to integrate and professionalize irregular forces into its conventional structure while Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov has the favor of Russian President Vladimir Putin.[18] Russian irregular forces in Ukraine include contract soldiers, mobilized soldiers, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics‘ (DNR and LNR) forces, volunteer battalions, Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS) forces, Cossack and Chechen units, and Wagner Group mercenaries. These formations have different objectives, limitations, pre-requisites, hierarchies, and legal statuses. The Russian MoD has initiated several professionalization efforts since Gerasimov’s appointment as the Commander of the Joint Grouping of Forces in Ukraine on January 11, and it is logical that the Russian MoD would seek to cohere the current odd mix of forces into a more traditional structure.[19] These integration efforts coincide with the launching of decisive offensive operations, however, and will likely generate short-term disruptions and pushback among units needed for those operations. Undertaking complex structural and administrative changes while launching major offensive operations is an unusual step, however appropriate the changes. Gerasimov likely feels that he has a limited window to make changes to Russian forces before the impossibility of achieving the grandiose objectives he has apparently been set causes him to lose Putin’s favor once again.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely overcompensating for his declining influence by continuing to frame himself as the sole victor in the Bakhmut area and attempting to leverage his remaining influence online. Prigozhin responded to a question on February 4 about rumors of a new Russian offensive by comparing Wagner Group forces’ battle strategy to a chess game in which players must “hit [their opponents’] head with a chessboard.”[20] Prigozhin also called for Russian authorities to investigate US-based Russian-language international media outlet RTVI for disseminating “slanderous information,” one of many recent calls for Russian officials to take action based on his demands alone.[21] Select Russian milbloggers no longer flock to Prigozhin’s defense, however. One Russian milblogger, for example, characterized Prigozhin as a “brilliant troll” and claimed that DNR and LNR mobilized forces suffer significant casualties on the entire Donbas frontline without sufficient support while Wagner Group forces concentrated their efforts around Bakhmut.[22]

Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner of war (POW) exchange on February 4, exchanging 63 Russian POWs for 116 Ukrainian POWs.[23] The Russian MoD claimed that the Russian POWs included personnel of an unspecified “sensitive category,” and the MoD credited the United Arab Emirates leadership for mediating the exchange. A Russian milblogger expressed continued frustration at uneven Russo–Ukrainian POW exchanges.[24]

Key Takeaways

A Russian decisive offensive operation is unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline.

Russian forces have not shown the capacity to sustain the multiple simultaneous large-scale offensive operations that would be necessary to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast and seize Zaporizhia City.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has launched a series of efforts to restructure and consolidate the mismatched blend of irregular forces supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine into Russia’s conventional military forces.

The Russian MoD’s decision to undertake significant structural reform while preparing for a major offensive in eastern Ukraine likely represents an effort by Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov to complete reforms while he has Russian President Vladimir Putin’s often fleeting favor.

Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is overcompensating for his declining influence by continuing to frame himself as the sole victor in the Bakhmut area.

Russian and Ukrainian officials exchanged 63 Russian POWs for 116 Ukrainian POWs.

Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations northwest of Svatove and continued offensive operations around Kreminna.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and Vuhledar but have slowed the pace of their offensives along the western outskirts of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian military assets in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.

Russian authorities are attempting to reinvigorate force generation efforts by drawing from broader pools of manpower.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Ukrainian Counteroffensives—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and one supporting effort)

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast

Russian Supporting Effort—Southern Axis

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts

Activities in Russian-occupied Areas

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian sources reported that Russian forces conducted limited offensives northwest of Svatove on February 4. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces conducted successful offensive actions near Dvorichne, Kharkiv Oblast (53km northwest of Svatove) and pushed Ukrainian forces out of the western outskirts of the settlement.[25] Other Russian sources amplified the claim, although ISW has not observed any visual confirmation that Russian forces have advanced in the area.[26] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also conducted an attack in the direction of Stelmakhivka (15km west of Svatove).[27]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kreminna area on February 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Kreminna itself and Hrekivka (27km northwest of Kreminna), Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), and Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna).[28] Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Western Military District launched an offensive along the Chervonopopivka-Kreminna line a few days ago and advanced close to Yampolivka, Donetsk Oblast (16km west of Kreminna), where fighting is reportedly ongoing.[29] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of positions south and southwest of Dibrova and advanced closer to Hryhorivka (11km south of Kreminna).[30] Russian milbloggers continue to make contradictory claims about Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna), with one milblogger claiming that Russian forces captured the settlement and are currently clearing it and another claiming that Russian forces are still fighting to capture Bilohorivka.[31]

Ukrainian forces reportedly continue to strike Russian logistics in Luhansk Oblast. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck an industrial facility in Svatove with HIMARS rockets on February 4.[32]

A fire at an industrial facility in Belgorod Oblast may further disrupt Russian logistics in Ukraine. Russian, Ukrainian, and social media sources posted footage on February 4 showing an oil depot burning at a facility in Borsivka, Belgorod Oblast that reportedly produces metal structures for the repair of the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea.[33] Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Vladimirovich claimed that Ukrainian forces struck an industrial facility in Borisvka Raion in Belgorod Oblast.[34] The fire may have damaged the industrial facility and could disrupt ongoing Russian repair efforts for the Kerch Strait Bridge, a critical ground line of communication (GLOC) for Russian forces in southern Ukraine.

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut area on February 4. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Russian forces have committed a substantial portion of their forces to offensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut intending to break through Ukrainian defenses in the past week but that they have been unsuccessful.[35] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut itself, within 31km northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhokamianske, Krasna Hora, and Paraskoviivka; and 6km west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske.[36] Geolocated footage published on February 4 indicates that Russian forces likely advanced west of Sil (13km north of Bakhmut).[37] Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group fighters continued assaults near Rozdolivka (17km northeast of Bakhmut) and Vasyukivka (15km north of Bakhmut), and that Russian forces attempted to advance in the direction of Spirne (28km northeast of Bakhmut).[38]Russian sources claimed that Russian forces continue offensive operations southwest of Bakhmut attempting to reach the T0504 Highway between Chasiv Yar and Bakhmut.[39] Former Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Minister Vitaly Kiselyov claimed that Russian forces between Ivanivske and Stupochky (12km southwest of Bakhmut) advanced to within a kilometer of the highway, although other Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces were still several kilometers away from the highway.[40] ISW has not observed visual confirmation of Russian forces being closer than 2.5km to the T0504 highway.

Russian milbloggers are attempting to portray Russian offensives northeast of Bakhmut and south of Kreminna as being a complementary effort to encircle Siversk. A prominent milblogger claimed that the simultaneous advances of the Wagner Group from the direction of Soledar and Russian forces claimed advances in the direction of Lyman and around Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast create the prerequisites for encircling Siversk from the south, north, and east.[41] Another Russian milblogger claimed that renewed Russian offensive operations south of Kreminna indicate that Russian forces plan to encircle Siversk.[42] These Russian milbloggers may believe that Russian forces only need to cut off sections of the T0513 highway north and south of Siversk to operationally encircle the settlement, but Ukrainian forces would still be able to supply forces in the settlement from country roads leading west. Russian forces would need to advance upwards of 15km to come close to cutting off all the ground lines of communication (GLOCs) likely required to encircle Siversk. That level of advance would require a substantially more concerted Russian offensive effort in the direction of Siversk from the north, east, and south than ISW has hitherto observed.

Russian offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk City appear to have slowed in recent days. The Ukrainian General Staff has reported that Russian forces have not conducted assaults on specified settlements in the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area for the previous three days.[43] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces conducted an assault near Paraskoviivka (34km southwest of Avdiivka) and amplified footage claiming to show elements of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District clearing a captured Ukrainian fortified position in the western part of Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka).[44] The slowed pace of Russian assaults in the Avdiivka–Donetsk City area may support ISW’s assessment that Russian forces likely lack the combat power to sustain multiple large offensive operations in Ukraine, and thus, Russian forces may have slowed their pace of assaults in this area to prioritize their offensive to capture Bakhmut and their likely imminent offensive in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations around Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City) on February 4. Geolocated footage published on February 4 shows Russian forces with armored vehicles attempting to advance north of Mykilske (27km southwest of Donetsk City) towards the T0524 highway leading into Vuhledar from the northeast.[45] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces continued offensive operations near the dacha areas south and west of Vuhledar and unsuccessfully attempted to bypass the settlement in an unspecified direction.[46] One Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces have denied Russian forces the opportunity to gain a foothold on the outskirts of the settlement.[47] Russian milbloggers amplified footage purporting to show units of the 40th and 155th Naval Infantry Brigades of the Pacific Fleet conducting assaults near Vuhledar.[48] A Ukrainian military officer reported that Russian forces continue to bring in artillery and infantry personnel into the Vuhledar area and are likely preparing for the slow grinding assaults characteristic of Russian offensives in the rest of eastern Ukraine.[49] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian personnel transfers and probing of Russian defenses in the area may suggest that Ukrainian forces intend to launch a localized counteroffensive around Vuhledar, although ISW does not make assessments about specific future Ukrainian operations.[50]

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian military assets in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian Tor M2DT air defense system 12km southwest of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast and 8km from the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River on February 3, the second instance in two days.[51] The presence of these short-range air defense systems optimized for Arctic warfare near the riverbank suggests that the Russian 80th Separate Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Northern Fleet is operating close to the riverbank and has brought its own air defense systems.[52] The Tor M2DT was clearly unable to defend itself against whatever system Ukraine used to destroy it in a single shot.

Russian forces continued to conduct routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts on February 4.[53] A Ukrainian source claimed that Russian forces shelled Kherson City with incendiary munitions.[54]

Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Russian authorities are attempting to reinvigorate force generation efforts by drawing from broader personnel pools. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on February 4 that Russian forces have expanded convict recruitment efforts to target women, reportedly recruiting about 50 women from a women’s correctional colony in occupied Snizhne, Donetsk Oblast over the course of a week.[55] Russian State Duma parliamentarian (and a member of the Russian Mobilization Working Group) Dmitry Gusev proposed that Russian authorities mobilize scientists, engineers, and IT specialists in an interview with a state-affiliated outlet on February 2.[56] Gusev advocated that Russian officials deploy these professionals within specialized units but acknowledged that such a framework would require increased subtlety within the Russian “mobilization machine.”[57] Russian State Duma parliamentarian Maksim Ivanov stated on February 3 that he supports the mobilization of unemployed Russians in place of valuable specialists and engineers.[58] Kremlin-affiliated outlet reported that the Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights criticized Ivanov’s suggestion and that a council member claimed that every Russian is valuable.[59]

The war in Ukraine has likely created a domestic shortage of Russian medical professionals, fueling limited protests. A Russian source stated on February 3 that Russian residents in Volchikha, Altai Krai demanded the resignation of a head physician and held a rally to show their dissatisfaction with local healthcare after the death of a local child at a hospital with no doctor on site.[60] A separate source reported that the regional minister of health heard complaints from local residents and an investigative committee opened a case investigating criminal negligence following the death of a child in Gorny, Zabaykalsky Krai.[61] The child was discharged from a hospital and died while waiting for an ambulance after her condition deteriorated.[62] The sources reporting on both instances attributed the personnel shortages, deaths, and publicized dissatisfaction to heavy Russian military recruitment of medical specialists.[63]

Russian authorities continue to frame limited Russian efforts to sabotage military infrastructure as terrorism in an effort to crack down on sources of resistance. A Russian news source from Chita, Zabaykalsky Krai reported on February 2 that Russian authorities opened a criminal case under laws prohibiting the public justification of terrorism against leaders of an unregistered regional youth organization. The organization allegedly justified the sabotage of Russian railways and the arson of military registration and enlistment offices.[64] A Russian opposition news source reported on February 3 that Russian authorities are investigating a blogger from Moscow Oblast for preparing a sabotage attack on a Russian railway because the man maintained a microblog on Instagram (an illegal platform in Russia) and demonstrated an “unhealthy interest” in rail transit items including military cargo.[65] An independent Russian news outlet reported on February 3 that a court in Podolsk, Moscow Oblast ordered a 70-year-old pensioner who committed an arson attack on a military enlistment office to receive psychiatric treatment.[66]

The Russian Armed Forces continue to struggle with desertion and disorder among soldiers. Several Russian sources reported on February 3 and 4 that Russian authorities apprehended a deserter who fled his unit near Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast and two soldiers who left their positions in Russia without proper authorization.[67] An Ulyanovsk Oblast news source reported on February 3 that an Ulyanovsk court sentenced two mobilized soldiers to 5.5 and 5 years in a correctional colony for committing “violent acts” against their commanders.[68]

Russian State Duma Deputy from Novosibirsk Dmitry Savelyev quietly went to Moscow after publicizing his decision leave Novosibirsk to join the Vega battalion in Ukraine.[69] Savelyev’s apparent ruse that he would serve on the front lines in Ukraine was likely an effort to deflect criticism that Russian officials avoid mobilization, ignore the challenges of ordinary Russians, and do not contribute to the war effort.

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of and annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 4 that occupation authorities and their families are preparing to leave Troitskyi Raion, in northwestern Luhansk Oblast.[70]

Russian authorities continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine to Russia. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) and Republic of Karelia officials discussed a scheme to send Ukrainian children from occupied Luhansk Oblast to Karelia under a scheme for “rest and rehabilitation.”[71] The Resistance Center reported that Russian regional authorities aim to import certain quotas of Ukrainian children under the rest and rehabilitation scheme to improperly write off budget funds. The Resistance Center also noted that there is evidence that some Russian officials may be using these efforts to engage in human trafficking.

Advisor to the exiled Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral, Petro Andryushenko, reported that Russian occupation officials banned all Protestant and non-Orthodox churches from operating in Mariupol and began nationalizing the assets of these churches.[72] Russian officials have notably run an information operation falsely claiming that Ukrainian officials discriminate against certain religions, including the Kremlin-affiliated Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate.[73] ISW previously reported that Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast reportedly nationalized and closed places of worship belonging to the Ukrainian Evangelical Baptist Christian communities.[74] Mariupol occupation officials may have banned and nationalized these churches as part of a larger Russian effort to establish the Kremlin-affiliated Moscow Patriarchate Orthodox Church as the dominant faith in the occupied territories.[75]

An unspecified actor shot Russian soldier Igor “Bereg” Mangushev at close range in the back of the head at a checkpoint in occupied Kadiivka, Luhansk Oblast on February 4.[76] Russian authorities declined to release more information about the attack, but Russian milbloggers condemned the attack and speculated that Mangushev may have been on his knees and shot from behind.[77] Mangushev previously called for the destruction of the Ukrainian population while holding a skull, which he claimed belonged to a Ukrainian defender of the Azovstal Plant in Mariupol.[78] One Western expert noted that Mangushev has ties to Wagner Group and that an attack against Mangushev may have indirectly targeted Wagner Group and its financier, Yevgeny Prigozhin.[79]

Significant activity in Belarus (ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine in early 2023 is extraordinarily unlikely and has thus restructured this section of the update. It will no longer include counter-indicators for such an offensive.

ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus, but these are not indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are preparing for an imminent attack on Ukraine from Belarus. ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine.)

Nothing significant to report.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/signs-of-coming-russian-offensive-on-multip...

[2] https://www.wsj.com/articles/signs-of-coming-russian-offensive-on-multip...

[3] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[4] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[5] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...

[6] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...

[7] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive...

[8] https://t.me/andriyshTime/5575; https://t.me/andriyshTime/6398

[9] https://t.me/andriyshTime/6405; https://t.me/andriyshTime/3609; https://t.me/andriyshTime/4537; https://t.me/andriyshTime/4549; https://t.me/andriyshTime/4562; https://t.me/andriyshTime/2639; 7 https://t.me/andriyshTime/2963;

[10] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[11] https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/16953133; https://structure.mil dot ru/structure/okruga/south/news.htm

[12] https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/16953133

[13] https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1621756279726145536; https://www.u... https://don24 dot ru/rubric/specoperaciya-na-ukraine/shoygu-budut-sozdany-samodostatochnye-gruppirovki-voysk-v-novyh-subektah-rf.html

[14] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[15] https://t.me/wargonzo/10710

[16] https://t.me/mobdnrlive/1774; https://t.me/astrapress/20433; https://n...

[17] https://t.me/tass_agency/179333

[18] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[19] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[20] https://t.me/concordgroup_official/409

[21] https://t.me/concordgroup_official/399

[22] https://t.me/concordgroup_official/399

[23] https://t.me/rybar/43261; https://t.me/mod_russia/23949 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/23950; https://t.me/readovkanews/51953; https://t.me/readovkanews/51957; https://gur.gov dot ua/content/vidbuvsia-cherhovyi-velykyi-obmin-polonenymy.html

[24] https://t.me/rybar/43261

[25] https://t.me/mod_russia/23952

[26] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/77228 ; https://t.me/russkiy_opolchenec/35754

[27] https://t.me/wargonzo/10698

[28] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02QwNbTFftZDGBSSASe3...

[29] https://t.me/rybar/43256 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/8678

[30] https://t.me/rybar/43256

[31] https://t.me/rybar/43256 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/10698

[32] https://t.me/rybar/43254 ; https://t.me/kommunist/15481

[33] https://t.me/readovkanews/51945; https://t.me/readovkanews/51948 ; ht...https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1621792376539807745 ; https...

[34] https://t.me/belgorod_informant/2970; https://t.me/belgorod_informant/2...

[35] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2023/02/04/rosijski-vijska-kynuly-vsi-syly-na-proryv-nashoyi-oborony-ta-otochennya-bahmuta-ale-uspihu-ne-dosyagly-ganna-malyar/

[36] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02QwNbTFftZDGBSSASe3...

[37] https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1621557585542352897https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/1621883886740414466

[38] https://t.me/wargonzo/10698 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/77228 ; http...

[39] https://t.me/kommunist/15489 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/8678 ; https:...

[40] https://t.me/kommunist/15489 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/10698 ; https:/...

[41] https://t.me/rybar/43256

[42] https://t.me/dva_majors/8678

[43] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0MueyRcqn5VUaTqWyeeT...

[44] https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7151 ; https://t.me/milinfolive/96519 ; ht...

[45] https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/1621883914582122499https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1621808880157134848

[46] https://t.me/namarshe/4374 ; https://t.me/grey_zone/16996; https://t....

[47] https://t.me/grey_zone/16996 ;

[48] https://t.me/notes_veterans/7777; https://t.me/voenacher/38884 ; http...

[49] https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1621815955482447873

[50] https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2573 ; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/2...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1621769300934639617?s=20&t=WaWGZqo...

https://t.me/lost_warinua/27851 ; https://twitter.com/intel_pigeon/sta...

https://t.me/lost_warinua/27851;

https://twitter.com/intel_pigeon/status/1621613564975890435; https://tw...

https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/19170

[52] https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1621090517265293315?s=20&t=hI3vgkIPy...

[53] https://t.me/vilkul/2669 ; https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2389; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/16413; https... https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0MueyRcqn5VUaTqWyeeT...

[54] https://t.me/hueviyherson/34254

[55]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0MueyRcqn5VUaTqWyeeT...

[56] https://t.me/uranews/73398

[57] https://t.me/uranews/73398

[58] https://t.me/maksim_ivanon/1020

[59] https://lenta dot ru/news/2023/02/03/react/

[60] https://t.me/Govorit_NeMoskva/3917

[61] https://t.me/news_sirena/10621; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilization-f...

[62] https://t.me/news_sirena/10621; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilization-f...

[63] https://t.me/news_sirena/10621; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilization-f...

[64] https://t.me/chitaru75/27816; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilization-feb...

[65] https://t.me/ostorozhno_moskva/3466; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilizat...

[66] https://t.me/sotaproject/53353; https://t.me/sotaproject/51639; https:...

[67] https://www.kavkazr.com/a/vernuvshegosya-iz-ukrainy-voennosluzhaschego-v...

[68] https://ulnovosti dot ru/i-lenta-novostej-i/strong-v-ulyanovske-mobilizovannye-poluchili-sroki-za-izbienie-svoih-komandirov-strong/; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilization-feb-2-3

[69] https://theins dot ru/news/259128; https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/19215; https://tayga ot info/180603; https://t.me/theinsider/16999

[70] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02QwNbTFftZDGBSSASe3...

[71] https://sprotyv.mod dot gov.ua/2023/02/04/ditej-z-luganshhyny-gotuyut-do-vidpravky-u-kareliyu/

[72] https://t.me/andriyshTime/6412

[73] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[74] https://isw.pub/UkrWar012623

[75] https://isw.pub/UkrWar012623

https://t.me/mig41/24117; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/44998;

https://t.me/notes_veterans/7786;

https://t.me/notes_veterans/7784;

https://t.me/notes_veterans/7779;

https://t.me/wehearfromyanina/1322;

https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/9598;

[77] https://t.me/notes_veterans/7786; https://t.me/notes_veterans/7784; https://t.me/notes_veterans/7779; ht...

[78] https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-mercenary-brandishes-sk...

[79] https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1621862756591738880

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023

Feb 6, 2023 - Press ISW

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Layne Philipson, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan

February 6, 9:00 pm ET

Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late February. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov stated on February 5 that the Ukrainian military is expecting Russia to start its decisive offensive around February 24 to symbolically tie the attack to the first anniversary of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[1] Reznikov also clarified that the Ukrainian military has not observed the formation of Russian offensive groups in the Kharkiv and Chernihiv directions or Belarus; Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk noted that Russian forces are likely concentrating on launching offensive operations in the east rather than in southern Ukraine.[2] An unnamed advisor to the Ukrainian military told Financial Times that Russia intends to launch an offensive in the next 10 days (by February 15), a timeline that would allow Russian forces to strike Ukrainian positions before the arrival of Western tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.[3] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are continuing to deploy reserves to Luhansk Oblast to strike after February 15.[4]

Select Russian nationalist voices continued to express skepticism towards Russia’s ability to launch a successful offensive past late February. A Wagner-affiliated milblogger noted that Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov (who currently commands Russian forces in Ukraine) has a limited time window to launch a large-scale offensive operation in Ukraine before it is entirely impossible to execute.[5] Another ultra-nationalist voice, former Russian officer Igor Girkin, forecasted that the Russian decisive offensive will not be successful until Russia mobilizes more manpower, industry, and economy.[6] Girkin claimed that an attack without such mobilization would shortly culminate. Both observations highlight that the Russian military command appears to be in a rush to launch the decisive offensive, likely ahead of the arrival of Western military aid and the muddy spring season in Ukraine around April that hindered Russian mechanized maneuvers in spring 2022.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz undermined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s false narrative that the provision of German tanks to Ukraine threatens Russian security. Putin stated on February 2 that German tanks are again threatening Russia, drawing a false parallel with World War II.[7] Scholz stated that Putin’s remarks are "a part of a series of abstruse historical comparisons that he uses to justify his attack on Ukraine."[8] Scholz added that the West and Ukraine have a "consensus" that Ukrainian forces will only use Western-provided weapons to liberate its territories from Russian occupation. Germany’s provision of Leopard tanks does not differ from Western military provisions of Soviet tanks and kit to Ukraine throughout the war, and Putin’s February 2 reaction is likely a continuation of Russian information operation to discourage Western military aid to Ukraine ahead of Russia’s decisive offensive. Kremlin information agents are amplifying similar rhetoric that Ukrainian forces will use Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDM) - which increase the range of HIMARS to 151km from roughly 80km – to target Russian territory alongside occupied Ukrainian territories.[9] Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov confirmed on February 5 that Ukraine agreed to not use Western long-range weapons to strike Russian territories, however.[10]

Kremlin-appointed Russian and occupation officials continue to implement social benefit schemes that target children and teenagers in occupied areas of Ukraine to consolidate social control and integration of these territories into Russia. Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova (appointed by Russian President Vladimir Putin) met with a slate of Russian occupation officials on February 6 to discuss various issues relating to children and youth in occupied regions of Ukraine. In a meeting with occupation head of Crimea Sergey Aksyonov, Lvova-Belova noted that the Crimean occupation government has been instrumental in "accepting" children from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.[11] Lvova-Belova also reported that the "Day After Tomorrow" organization will begin conducting "rehabilitation" tours in Crimea to work with children who need special psychological assistance.[12] ISW has previously reported on numerous instances of Russian occupation officials using the guise of psychiatric and medical rehabilitation to remove Ukrainian children further into Russian-controlled territory within Ukraine or deport them to Russia.[13] Sevastopol occupation head Mikhail Razvozhaev similarly announced that he met with Lvova Belova on February 6 to discuss "new formats of social work" on behalf of Putin and remarked that most of the children who require social support are not orphans.[14] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik stated that Lvova-Belova proposed that children whose personal data is in the regional data bank will be "able to find a family in other regions of the Russian Federation."[15] Pasechnik also reported that LNR authorities are working with Novosibirsk Oblast and Khanty-Mansi Okrug to secure "methodological assistance" in resolving issues regarding children in occupied Luhansk Oblast.[16] Lvova-Belova additionally met with Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin to develop programs "for the socialization of adolescents" and with Zaporizhia occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky to discuss social institutions for children in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.[17]

Lvova-Belova is likely working directly on Putin’s orders to institute several social institutions and programs in occupied areas of Ukraine to collect personal data on children, carry out various social programming functions aimed at integrating occupied areas using pseudo-humanitarian organizations, and set conditions to legitimize and institutionalize the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families. Putin signed a list of instructions on January 3 that directed Lvova-Belova and directed the occupation heads of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts to "take additional measures to identify minors...left without parental care" in occupied areas to provide them with "state social assistance" and "social support."[18] Lvova-Belova's February 6 meetings with occupation heads are likely the manifestation of Putin’s list of instructions and represent an escalation in efforts by Kremlin-appointed officials to consolidate social integration of occupied territories by targeting children.[19] The implementation of "rehabilitation centers" and the tabulation of children’s personal data through these social programs will likely enable Russian occupation officials to facilitate the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children to Russian families. Occupation officials continue to execute social control measures in occupied areas according to directives provided by Putin’s list of instructions. ISW continues to observe that efforts to deport and forcibly adopt Ukrainian children may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.[20]

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to open the door for further institutionalized corruption in Russia through legislative manipulations. Putin signed a decree on February 6 allowing Russian deputies and senators to not publish their incomes in the public domain.[21] The law will allow deputies and senators to publish their incomes in an anonymized form that does not contain their personal data. The law will also apply to regional and municipal deputies.[22] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that the new law will not affect anti-corruption measures and stated that "the conditions of the [special military operation] bring their own specifics."[23] Putin previously approved a decree on December 29, 2022, that exempted all Russian officials, including members of the military and law enforcement, from making public income declarations.[24] These two decrees are likely efforts by the Kremlin to appease the political actors who comprise Putin’s domestic support base and will likely continue to contribute to the institutionalization of corruption in Russia.

The Kremlin continues to deny Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin legitimacy and authority in Russia. A Moscow court refused to recognize Prigozhin as the owner and founder of Wagner private military company (PMC) after revisiting Prigozhin’s lawsuit against Russian journalist Alexei Venediktov on February 6.[25] Prigozhin sued Venediktov in June 2021 for accusing him of being the "owner of Wagner," and the Moscow court concluded that information about Prigozhin’s ownership of Wagner was "unreliable."[26] Prigozhin attempted to reverse the court’s decision on January 19, claiming that Venediktov did not lie about Prigozhin’s ownership of Wagner—likely in an ongoing effort to overcompensate for his declining influence following the replacement of war-torn Wagner forces around Bakhmut with Russian conventional units.[27] ISW previously assessed that the Russian military’s decreasing reliance on Wagner forces around Bakhmut is likely reducing Prigozhin’s influence within the Kremlin inner circle.[28]

Prigozhin’s appeal in the Russian nationalist information space may also be declining as he continues to overcompensate for the culmination of Wagner’s attack around Bakhmut. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger commented on a video showing Prigozhin piloting an Su-24M bomber aircraft supposedly over Bakhmut on February 6.[29] The milblogger stated that Prigozhin became the main player in Russian information space rather than the traditional Russian military command which "lacked creativity."[30] Prigozhin also "declared" the US, UK, and Canadian governments to be illegitimate states that sponsor terrorism according to the "Wagner Charter."[31] The milblogger stated that Prigozhin’s manipulation of the information space - specifically his skill in trolling - had allowed him to gain more political influence than a Russian Defense Minister.[32] ISW assessed on October 25 that Prigozhin weaponized the Russian information space and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reliance on his forces to gain political leverage in Russia.[33] The milblogger’s acknowledgment of Prigozhin’s flashy tactics may indicate that the non-Wagner-affiliated nationalist information space may be awakening to Prigozhin’s efforts to use the war in Ukraine for personal benefit. Wagner-affiliated milbloggers, in turn, continued to celebrate Prigozhin and previous theater commander Army General Sergey Surovikin as the only two leaders who have "confirmed their high qualifications and enjoy the trust of the political leadership of the country and the people."[34]

Failures of Western sanctions efforts against the provision of arms components to Iran have likely contributed to Russia’s ability to bypass Western sanctions to acquire components for combat drones through military cooperation with Iran. US officials stated on February 5 that Russia and Iran are moving ahead with plans to build an Iranian drone factory on Russian soil, the second such international Iranian drone factory.[35] Iran opened a drone production factory in Tajikistan - a Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member state and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) candidate - in May 2022.[36] Russia may leverage its significant economic ties to Tajikistan through the CSTO and EAEU to launder drone components or procure manufactured drones for use in Ukraine to bypass international sanctions.[37]

UK investigative group Conflict Armament Research (CAR) reported in November 2022 that 82% of Iranian Shahed-131, Shahed 136, and Mohajer-6 drones downed in Ukraine had chips, semiconductors, and other components that came from the US despite high import and export control restrictions on such components to Iran.[38] CAR also noted that the downed drones contained higher-end technological capabilities and have a "significant jump in capabilities" compared to other systems previously observed in the Middle East.[39] Most Western-manufactured components in the downed Iranian drones were produced between 2020 and 2021, following the expiration of United Nations Security Council heavy arms sanctions against Iran in 2020.[40] Most Western companies whose components were found in downed Iranian drones in Ukraine denied directly selling components to Russia, Iran, or Belarus since the start of the war.[41] However, the representative of a Swiss manufacturing company noted that it is impossible to be completely sure that distributors of arms components do not sell components to sanctioned entities, implying that Russia, Iran, or other sanctioned states can exploit loopholes allowing them to acquire Western-produced arms components via proxy actors.[42]

Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late February.

Select Russian nationalist voices continued to express skepticism toward Russia’s ability to launch a successful offensive past late February.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz undermined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s false narrative that the provision of German tanks to Ukraine threatens Russian security.

Kremlin-appointed Russian and occupation officials continue to implement social benefit schemes that target children and teenagers in occupied areas of Ukraine to consolidate social control and integration of these territories into Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to open the door for further institutionalized corruption in Russia through legislative manipulations.

The Kremlin continues to deny Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin legitimacy and authority in Russia.

Prigozhin’s appeal in the Russian nationalist information space may also be declining as he continues to overcompensate for the culmination of Wagner’s attack around Bakhmut.

Failures of Western sanctions efforts against the provision of arms components to Iran have likely contributed to Russia’s ability to bypass Western sanctions to acquire combat drones through military cooperation with Iran.

Russian forces likely made tactical gains northeast of Kupyansk between February 4 and February 6, and Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced west of previous positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line on February 5 and February 6.

Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast as of February 6 despite Russian claims that Russian forces captured Bilohorivka on February 3.

Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast and south of Bakhmut but still have not encircled the settlement as of February 6.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.

Ukrainian forces continued limited attempts to cross the Dnipro River.

Russian conventional and irregular forces may be increasingly struggling to recruit from Russian penal colonies due to high casualties among prior penal colony recruits.

Russian forces continue to struggle with ethnic tensions and tensions between irregular forces.

Russian officials and occupation authorities may be intensifying operational security to conceal new Russian force deployments in Donbas.

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and one supporting effort);

Russian forces likely made tactical gains northeast of Kupyansk between February 4 and 6. Multiple Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Synkivka (10 km northeast of Kupyansk) on February 6, though one milblogger reported that this capture is unconfirmed.[43] A prominent Russian milblogger reported that Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defenses in Dvorichne (about 9 km north of Synkivka) and established positions on the settlement’s western outskirts on February 4.[44] Geolocated combat footage posted on February 5 shows Ukrainian artillery striking Russian forces in western Dvorichne, supporting the milblogger's report.[45] The Ukrainian General Staff did not report that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in these areas between February 5 and 6.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced west of previous positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line on February 5 - 6. A Russian milblogger reported that unspecified Russian airborne elements (likely of the 76th Airborne Division) advanced through the Serebryanka forests south of Dibrova and that elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division are clearing mines in an unspecified area near Yampolivka as of February 5.[46] This milblogger also reported that elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division pushed Ukrainian forces from unspecified high ground along the Makiivka-Ploshchanka-Nevske line.[47] A different Russian milblogger reported that Russian forces attacked in the direction of Nevske on February 5.[48] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Kreminna and Shypylivka on February 5 but did not mention repelling attacks further west near Yampolivka or Nevske on February 5 or 6.[49]

Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast as of February 6 despite Russian claims that Russian forces captured Bilohorivka on February 3. Geolocated video recorded on February 6 shows Ukrainian forces in Bilohorivka, confirming Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai’s February 5 statement that Russian forces did not recapture Bilohorivka.[51] The previous Russian claims may have been part of a larger Russian information operation. Deputy Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Administration Roman Semenukha stated on February 6 that there is no threat of an offensive on Kharkiv City and noted that all social media rumors about an attack on Kharkiv City are Russian information operations.[52] Russian milbloggers have increasingly been claiming that Russian forces gained the initiative in the Luhansk area and are pushing Ukrainian forces south and west back toward the Siverskyi Donets River. The Kremlin may be conducting information operations to demoralize Ukrainian forces ahead of a major Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces have not yet succeeded in encircling Bakhmut as of February 6. A Ukrainian soldier who is fighting in Bakhmut stated on February 5 that while Russian forces are continuing efforts to interdict the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut road west of Bakhmut and the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway north of Bakhmut, supply to the city continues.[53] The soldier noted that Ukrainian troops are maintaining supply to their grouping in Bakhmut despite constant Russian shelling of critical roads.[54] Several Russian sources additionally reiterated on February 5 that Ukrainian troops are not yet withdrawing from Bakhmut.[55] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin noted that fierce battles are occurring in Bakhmut and emphasized that Ukrainian troops are not withdrawing from any part of the city, indicating that the Ukrainian command has not yet deemed the threat of encirclement imminent or exigent.[56]

Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut on February 5 and February 6. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 5 and February 6 that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamyanske (32km northeast), Blahodatne (7km north), Krasna Hora (3km north), Paraskoviivka (5km north), and Vasyukivka (12km north); and southwest of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (5km west) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest).[57] Various geolocated footage posted on February 5 confirms marginal Russian advances northeast of Bakhmut in Krasna Hora and in the Rozdolivka-Mykolaivka area (15km northeast), in urban areas in northeastern Bakhmut, and southwest of Bakhmut near Opytne (3km south), Ozarianivka (15km southwest) and Klishchiivka.[58] Several Russian sources claimed on February 5 that Wagner Group forces advanced towards the Stupky area of northern Bakhmut.[59] Russian milbloggers emphasized that heavy fighting continued northeast and north of Bakhmut, particularly in the Krasna Hora and Paraskoviivka areas, as well as within urban sectors of northern and eastern Bakhmut on both February 5 and 6.[60] Russian sources additionally claimed that Wagner troops advanced to within a kilometer of the T0504 highway on February 6 and are attacking toward Stupochky (15km southwest) and Ivanivske in order to cut the T0504.[61] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that "volunteer" detachments captured Mykolaivka (15km northeast of Bakhmut), thus continuing to undermine Wagner Group's credit for gains around Bakhmut by not mentioning Wagner by name.[62] Prigozhin previously claimed Wagner took control of Mykolaivka on February 2.[63]

Russian forces continued ground attacks around Avdiivka and on the western outskirts of Donetsk City on February 6. The Ukrainian General Staff did not confirm any ground attacks in this area on February 5, and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces attacked from Opytne towards Pervomaiske (on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City).[64] Geolocated footage posted on February 5 shows marginal Russian advances within western Marinka.[65] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 6 that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Avdiivka around Kamianka (5km northeast of Avdiivka) and Severne (7km west of Avdiivka) as well along the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Pervomaiske, Vesele, Krasnohorivka, and Nevelske and southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.[66] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are attacking toward Severne to push east on Avdiivka.[67]

Russian forces did not conduct any claimed or confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 5th or 6th. Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops are transferring reserves to the Vuhledar areas (about 30km southwest of Donetsk City) in preparation for a counteroffensive attempt.[68] A Ukrainian reserve officer reported on February 6 that the situation around Vuhledar is mostly stable and that Russian forces are conducting small frontal assaults with fire support but are overall hesitant to launch a large-scale attack.[69] The reserve officer noted that Russian units fighting in the area—the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigade—are largely destroyed.[70]

Russian forces did not make any confirmed territorial gains on the southern axis on February 5 or February 6. Head of the Ukrainian Joint Coordination Press Center of the Southern Forces Nataliya Humenyuk stated on February 6 that Russian forces continue aerial reconnaissance and use civilian boats for reconnaissance operations on islands in the Dnipro River delta but are not making preparations for an attack from the south and have not changed positions in the southern direction.[71] Kherson Oblast advisor Serhiy Khlan, however, stated that Russian forces may go on the offensive in the southern direction, indicating that certain Ukrainian officials are keeping the possibility of a Russian offensive in the south within their forecast cone.[72] Humenyuk also stated that Ukrainian troops destroyed two Russian concentration areas and two sabotage and reconnaissance groups on the Kinburn Spit, suggesting that Ukrainian troops are continuing to strike rear concentration areas.[73] Video footage posted on February 5 reportedly shows Russian forces dropping incendiary munitions on Ukrainian positions on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River.[74] The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration stated on February 5 that Russian forces focus on maintaining occupied lines and shelling civilian infrastructure along the frontline in Zaporizhia Oblast.[75] Russian forces continued routine shelling in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts on February 5 and February 6.[76] Geolocated satellite footage shows that Russian forces built a fortified base on the Arabat Spit in northeastern Crimea between October 18, 2022, and January 21, 2023.[77]

Ukrainian forces continued limited attempts to cross the Dnipro River. Geolocated combat footage published on February 5 showed Russian artillery striking a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group near Kruhle Lake on the Dnipro River delta.[78] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces defeated Ukrainian reconnaissance elements near Kruhle Lake on February 1.[79]

Russian occupation officials continue efforts to consolidate control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on February 6 that Russian occupation officials in Enerhodar abducted Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) employees who refused to sign contracts with Russian state nuclear power company Rosatom.[80] The report states that Russian officials are not telling relatives of kidnapped workers where they are being held.[81] Ukrainian nuclear operator Energoatom reported that ZNPP workers refused to train imported Russian from the Kalinin NPP, suggesting that Russian officials at the plant are continuing efforts to import Russian employees to take control of the ZNPP.[82]

Russian conventional and irregular forces may be increasingly struggling to recruit from Russian penal colonies due to high casualties among prior penal colony recruits. Russian opposition outlet Mediazona reported on February 6 that the Wagner Group conducted a second prisoner recruitment drive in late 2022, and the drive at Correctional Colony 16 in Samara, Samara Oblast, only yielded 340 recruits whereas the first drive yielded over 1,000 recruits in the summer and fall of 2022.[83] Mediazona noted that other Russian penal colonies see similar declines in recruitment. Mediazona amplified one report that only 20 percent of prisoners recruited in 2022 are still alive as of February 6. A Russian source claimed that Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) personnel forcibly transported 56 prisoners from the Correctional Colony 41 in Yurga, Kemerovo Oblast, on February 5, suggesting that Russian authorities are increasing coercive measures to exploit prisoners amid low voluntary recruitment.[84]

Russian occupation authorities continue to set conditions for long-term force-generation efforts in occupied Ukraine. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on February 6 that Russian forces are introducing cadet classes for 10th and 11th grades in schools in occupied Kherson Oblast where students will study military affairs.[85] The Center reported that Russian occupation officials will offer graduates of this class noncommissioned officer ranks if they are later drafted.[86] These efforts continue to indicate that the Kremlin is preparing for a prolonged war effort in Ukraine, as ISW has previously reported.[87]

Russian forces continue to struggle with ethnic tensions and tensions between irregular forces. Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin claimed on February 5 that it is an "injustice" that Central Asian and Caucasian people can move to Russia but are not required to serve in the Russian military and called for Russia to consider prioritizing directing "naturalized citizens," particularly those from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Transcaucasia, to participate in the war in Ukraine.[88] People from territories with high proportions of ethnic minorities have disproportionately borne the burden of the Russian war in Ukraine, as ISW has previously reported.[89] Tuvan mobilized personnel published a video on February 5 claiming that Russian military police and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces routinely beat them and that Russian forces have not properly trained Tuvan mobilized personnel.[90] Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Russia service reported on February 5 that Chuvash Republic authorities only provided transportation for Chuvash mobilized personnel to return home on leave after substantial public outcry.[91] Republic of Bashkortostan Head Radiy Khabirov announced that the Republic has redirected funds from the construction of the Ar-Rahim Mosque, which began construction in 2007, to the Russian war effort.[92]

Russian forces are intensifying efforts to import medical personnel from Russia to staff civilian hospitals in Donbas, supporting ISW’s assessment that Russian forces are preparing for a renewed offensive in western Luhansk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 5 that Russian forces stationed Russian medical personnel and surgeons at a field hospital in occupied Pokrovsk, Luhansk Oblast.[93] The Ukrainian General Staff stated on February 5 that hospitals in occupied Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast, are full of Russian servicemen as Russian forces continue to treat their wounded in local hospitals at the expense of local civilians.[94] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported on February 5 that imported medical personnel from Yakutia, Russia, arrived in Svitlodarsk, Donetsk Oblast, to staff a civilian hospital holding approximately 70 wounded Russian servicemen.[95] Business Gazeta, a media outlet based in Tatarstan, Russia, claimed on February 2 that the Kazan State Medical University in Kazan, Russia, developed an 18-hour first-aid course that teaches volunteers how to identify and treat minor injuries and communicate with people with severe mental trauma, following which the volunteers will be sent to Donbas.[96] Business Gazeta also claimed 30 newly trained volunteers have already been sent to Donbas and that a new batch of trained volunteers will depart for Donbas on February 6.[97]

Russian officials and occupation authorities may be intensifying operational security to conceal new Russian force deployments in Donbas. Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko stated on February 6 that Mariupol internet providers will be shut down indefinitely on February 11, likely in an effort to prevent residents from posting Russian military movements through Mariupol on social media.[98]

Russian federal subjects and occupation authorities are continuing to engage in patronage-like activity to support infrastructure projects in occupied territories. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed on February 5 that he met with a delegation of Tomsk Oblast officials in Donetsk Oblast, after which he thanked the Tomsk Oblast delegation for providing humanitarian assistance and construction material to Donbas, sending Tomsk Oblast doctors to staff hospitals in occupied territories, and supporting those Donbas residents forced to leave their homes.[99] Pushilin stated that he and the Tomsk Oblast delegation discussed the potential for the Tomsk-based "IIma" company and the Donetsk-based Yasinovatsky Machine-Building and Kuzbass Plants to jointly implement an import-substitution plan.[100]

Russian-appointed Governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhaev claimed on February 6 that the "World Russian People’s Council" established a branch in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea.[101] DNR Head Denis Pushilin announced on February 5 that Russian and Donetsk Oblast occupation officials created a constituent assembly of the "World Russian People’s Council," an organization that is run by the Russian Orthodox Church with a self-proclaimed mission of uniting all Russian people regardless of their place of residence or political views.[102] Pushilin claimed that "spiritual unity is the essence of the Russian people" and a component of the Russian Orthodox Church worldview that corresponds to the "impulse of all of Russia" to capture Donbas.

Russia continues to expand its military influence in Belarus. Belarusian Air Force Commander Andrei Lukyanovich stated on February 5 that Belarus will receive a squadron of Russian Mi-35 attack helicopters before April 2023 and that Belarus plans to buy an unspecified number of Su-30SM multirole fighters at an unspecified future time in 2023.[103]

The Kremlin media apparatus continues to promote the information operation about a Russian invasion of northern Ukraine from Belarus. Prominent Kremlin state TV propagandists Vladimir Solovyov visited joint Russian-Belarusian exercises in Belarus in early February and released a special report on the development of the joint Russian-Belarusian Regional Grouping of Forces on the Rossiya 1 TV channel on February 5.[104]

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced a snap military readiness check of the Military Academy of Belarus on February 6.[105]

[1] https://www.pravda dot com.ua/news/2023/02/5/7388012/

[2] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2023/02/06/za-czyu-nich-na-pivdennomu-napryamku-rosijski-vijska-vtratyly-dva-katery-ta-dvi-dyversijno-rozviduvalni-grupy-nataliya-gumenyuk/; https://www.pravda dot com.ua/news/2023/02/5/7388012/; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2023/02/05/vzhe-zavtra-rozpochynayutsya-navchannya-ukrayinskyh-voyiniv-na-tankah-leopard/

[3] https://www.ft.com/content/268bd522-4794-4f3d-895f-f58a55536af9

[4] https://t.me/serhiy_hayday/9318

[5] https://t.me/grey_zone/17037

[6] https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/19270

[7] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/70434; https://t.me/readovkanews/51850

[8] https://www.bild dot de/politik/inland/politik-inland/olaf-scholz-im-bams-interview-klimakleber-viele-schuetteln-den-kopf-ich-auch-82789486.bild.html?t_ref=https%3A%2F%2Fm.bild.de%2Fpolitik%2Finland%2Fpolitik-inland%2Folaf-scholz-im-bams-interview-klimakleber-viele-schuetteln-den-kopf-ich-auch-82789486.bildMobile.html%3Ft_ref%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.bild.de%252Fpolitik%252Finland%252Fpolitik-inland%252Folaf-scholz-im...

[9] https://t.me/vrogov/7485

[10] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2023/02/05/ukrayina-ne-zastosovuvatyme-dalnobijnu-zbroyu-po-rosijskij-terytoriyi-oleksij-reznikov/

[11] https://t.me/malvovabelova/1062

[12] https://t.me/malvovabelova/1062; https://t.me/malvovabelova/962

[13] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass... https://isw.pub/UkrWar102622

[14] https://t.me/malvovabelova/1060; https://t.me/razvozhaev/2002

[15] https://t.me/glava_lnr_info/742

[16] https://t.me/glava_lnr_info/742

[17] https://t.me/malvovabelova/1058; https://t.me/pushilindenis/3161

[18] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ﷟HYPERLINK "http://www.kremlin%20dot/"http://www.kremlin dot ru/acts/assignments/orders/70322

[19] http://www.kremlin dot ru/acts/assignments/orders/70322

[20] https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1...

[21] http://publication.pravo dot gov.ru/Document/View/0001202302060005?index=4&rangeSize=1; https://meduza dot io/news/2023/02/06/putin-razreshil-deputatam-ne-publikovat-svedeniya-o-dohodah-v-otkrytom-dostupe-avtory-initsiativy-priznavalis-chto-im-prosto-len-eto-delat

[22] http://publication.pravo dot gov.ru/Document/View/0001202302060005?index=4&rangeSize=1; https://meduza dot io/news/2023/02/06/putin-razreshil-deputatam-ne-publikovat-svedeniya-o-dohodah-v-otkrytom-dostupe-avtory-initsiativy-priznavalis-chto-im-prosto-len-eto-delat

[23] https://www.interfax-russia dot ru/main/peskov-o-novom-poryadke-publikacii-deklaraciy-parlamentariev-usloviya-svo-vnosyat-svoyu-specifiku

[24] http://publication.pravo dot gov.ru/Document/View/0001202212290095?index=0&amp;rangeSize=1; https://theins dot ru/news/258252; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[25] https://t.me/aavst2022/4361

[26] https://meduza dot io/news/2023/02/06/sud-otkazalsya-peresmotret-svoe-reshenie-o-nedostovernosti-slov-venediktova-nazvavshego-prigozhina-hozyainom-chvk-vagnera-hotya-biznesmen-sam-v-etom-priznalsya

[27] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[28] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[29] https://t.me/voenacher/38995; https://t.me/concordgroup_official/417; ... https://t.me/rybar/43347

[30] https://t.me/rybar/43347

[31] https://t.me/concordgroup_official/414

[32] https://t.me/rybar/43347

[33] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[34] https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19051; https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19052;...

[35] https://www.wsj.com/articles/moscow-tehran-advance-plans-for-iranian-des...

[36] https://www.al-monitor dot com/originals/2022/05/iran-opens-drone-factory-tajikistan

[37] https://asiaplustj dot info/en/news/tajikistan/economic/20220715/tajik-authorities-still-exploring-possible-accession-to-eaeu

[38] https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/7a394153c87947d8a602c3927609f572; https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/21/politics/iranian-drones-russia-biden-task...

[39] https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/7a394153c87947d8a602c3927609f572

[40] https://www.aljazeera dot com/news/2020/10/18/arms-embargo-on-iran-expires-despite-us-opposition; https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/7a394153c87947d8a602c3927609f572

[41] https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/21/politics/iranian-drones-russia-biden-task... https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-war-russia-iranian-drones-us-made-t...

[42] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-war-russia-iranian-drones-us-made-t...

[43] https://t.me/kommunist/15534; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/77386; https://t.me/anna_news/46124

[44] https://t.me/rybar/43281

[45] https://t.me/DeepStateUA/15451

[46] https://t.me/vysokygovorit/10706; https://t.me/wargonzo/10716

[47] https://t.me/vysokygovorit/10706

[48] https://t.me/wargonzo/10716

[49] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02VBXsjJUzwSb7kXo1Ba...

[51] https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1622522867538702346; https://twitter... https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/8370

[52] https://suspilne dot media/377018-zodnoi-zagrozi-harkovu-okrim-raketnih-udariv-nemae-semenuha/

[53] https://suspilne dot media/375629-es-zaprovadiv-embargo-na-rosijski-naftoprodukti-ukraina-povernula-116-bijciv-z-polonu-rf-347-den-vijni-onlajn/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUTHgecoEnM

[54] https://suspilne dot media/375629-es-zaprovadiv-embargo-na-rosijski-naftoprodukti-ukraina-povernula-116-bijciv-z-polonu-rf-347-den-vijni-onlajn/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUTHgecoEnM

[55] https://t.me/concordgroup_official/41; https://t.me/grey_zone/17013; h...

[56] https://t.me/concordgroup_official/411

[57] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02VBXsjJUzwSb7kXo1Ba...

https://twitter.com/blinzka/status/1622203785534738432; https://twitter...

https://twitter.com/SerDer_Daniels/status/1622182895946272768

https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/1622215708225540098; https://t.me...

https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1622022675160866819; https://twitter....

https://twitter.com/SerDer_Daniels/status/1622219174205325313

https://twitter.com/klinger66/status/1622228912645308416; https://twitt...

https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1622188718097309696; https://twitt...

https://twitter.com/klinger66/status/1622278042994319361; https://twitt...

*GRAPHIC** https://t.me/brussinf/5626https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1622196772020830208

[59] https://t.me/kommunist/15505; https://t.me/yaremshooter/923; https://t...

[60] https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/21979; https://t.me/readovkanews/5202...

[61] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/77291; https://t.me/readovkanews/52022; http... https://t.me/boris_rozhin/77409

[62] https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/884845; https://t.me/mod_russia/23985

[63] https://t.me/concordgroup_official/388

[64] https://t.me/wargonzo/10716; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/p...

[65] https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1622115357983997953https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/1622192396803997698

[66] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02azZCVyEbj6x57r57UA...

[67] https://t.me/wargonzo/10731

[68] https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/22005; https://t.me/readovkanews/5208...

[69] https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1622553450708930563?s=20&t=-a60...

[70] https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1622488212982595591

[71] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2023/02/06/za-czyu-nich-na-pivdennomu-napryamku-rosijski-vijska-vtratyly-dva-katery-ta-dvi-dyversijno-rozviduvalni-grupy-nataliya-gumenyuk/

[72] https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid0i5x8zeDnKyUJUM5rxjQEz6...

[73] https://armyinform.com.ua/2023/02/06/za-czyu-nich-na-pivdennomu-napryamk...

[74] https://t.me/milinfolive/96548

[75] https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/16431

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029wdAESbrrgDgaFBX7i...

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02VBXsjJUzwSb7kXo1Ba...

https://t.me/khersonskaODA/3534;

https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid0i5x8zeDnKyUJUM5rxjQEz6...

https://t.me/hueviyherson/34292;

https://t.me/hueviyherson/34289 ;

https://t.me/hueviyherson/34278;

https://t.me/beryslavrda/1199;

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0kEn8yXXHJ431Z2LSsF8...

[77] https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1621974373665234944; https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1621984441043193856

[78] https://t.me/rusich_army/7550; https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/162223...

[79] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...; https://t.me/mod_russia/23873

[80] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2023/02/06/okupanty-vykradayut-atomnykiv-yaki-vidmovlyayutsya-praczyuvaty-na-zaes/

[81] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2023/02/06/okupanty-vykradayut-atomnykiv-yaki-vidmovlyayutsya-praczyuvaty-na-zaes

[82] https://suspilne.media/376703-na-zaporizku-atomnu-stanciu-rosiani-zavezl...

[83] https://zona dot media/news/2023/02/06/scnd-crcl

[84] https://t.me/oooromanova/1961

[85] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2023/02/06/rosiyany-stvoryuyut-kadetski-klasy-v-shkolah-na-tot/

[86] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0kEn8yXXHJ431Z2LSsF8... https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2023/02/06/rosiyany-stvoryuyut-kadetski-klasy-v-shkolah-na-tot/

[87] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[88] https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/22007; https://vk.com/wall-35660695_1158095; https://t.me/mikhailmavashi/2322

[89] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates-2022

[90] https://t.me/asiansofrussia/5424

[91] https://d246jefe6d777p.cloudfront dot net/a/32240870.html; https://t.me/idelrealii/24815; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilization-feb-4-5

[92] https://prufy dot ru/news/society/132663-radiy_khabirov_rasskazal_kogda_budet_dostroena_mechet_ar_rakhim_na_vezde_v_ufu/?sphrase_id=97391753; https://prufy dot ru/news/society/133760-ar_rakhim/; https://t.me/Govorit_NeMoskva/4023; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilization-feb-4-5

[93] on the territory of the local dispensary, RUAF set up a field hospital with Russian medical personnel and surgeons.

[94] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02VBXsjJUzwSb7kXo1Ba...

[95] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02VBXsjJUzwSb7kXo1Ba...

[96] https://www.business-gazeta dot ru/article/582124; https://t.me/astrapress/20548; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilization-feb-4-5

[97] https://www.business-gazeta dot ru/article/582124; https://t.me/astrapress/20548; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilization-feb-4-5

[98] https://t.me/andriyshTime/6456

[99] https://t.me/pushilindenis/3155

[100] https://t.me/pushilindenis/3155

[101] https://t.me/razvozhaev/1996

[102] https://t.me/razvozhaev/1996; https://vrns dot ru/o-vrns.php

[103] https://www.rbc dot ru/rbcfreenews/63dffa429a7947f8653d1e48; https://ctv dot by/ukrainu-prevratili-v-teatr-voennyh-deystviy-glava-vvs-i-voysk-pvo-o-postavkah-tehniki-manyovrah-i; https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/16966615

https://t.me/modmilby/22354;

https://t.me/SolovievLive/155886;

https://t.me/modmilby/22353;

https://t.me/SolovievLive/155840;

https://t.me/SolovievLive/156087;

https://t.me/modmilby/22383;

https://t.me/SolovievLive/156077;

https://t.me/modmilby/22382;

https://t.me/modmilby/22387

[105] https://t.me/modmilby/22385

Zaporizhia Battle Map Draft February 06,2023.png

Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map Draft February 06,2023.png

Donetsk Battle Map Draft February 06,2023.png

Kharkiv Battle Map Draft February 06,2023.png

DraftUkraineCoTFebruary06,2023.png

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 7, 2023

Feb 7, 2023 - Press ISW

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Angela Howard, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan

February 7, 8:30pm ET

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held a press conference on the status of the war on February 7, likely in an attempt to posture the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as an effective and involved leadership apparatus as the Russian military prepares for a renewed major offensive in Ukraine. Shoigu claimed that Russian forces are successfully developing operations near Bakhmut and Vuhledar and claimed that Russian troops have recently taken control of Soledar, Klishchiivka, Pidhorodne, Krasnopolivka, Blahodatne, and Mykolaivka in the Bakhmut area and Lobkove in Zaporizhia Oblast.[1] Shoigu likely held this press conference in order to create the guise of formality and legitimacy for the Russian MoD as it continues efforts to reform the Russian military, prepare for a renewed offensive, and set conditions for prolonged operations in Ukraine. ISW has previously noted that Russian officials are preparing for an imminent Russian offensive in Ukraine in the coming months, and that these preparations are also happening on the strategic level with Russian command structures.[2]

Russian military command may be rushing to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer Donetsk Oblast in an unrealistic timeframe and likely without sufficient combat power. The UK MoD assessed on February 7 that Russia has highly likely been attempting to launch a major offensive operation to reach the Donetsk Oblast administrative borders since early January 2023 but had only been able to gain several hundred meters of territory per week.[3] The UK MoD attributed such a slow pace to Russian munitions shortages and a lack of maneuver units that are necessary for a successful and rapid offensive. The UK MoD noted that Russia is unlikely to build up the combat power necessary to substantially affect the outcome of the war while Russian military command continues to demand for unrealistic and sweeping advances. ISW similarly assessed on January 28 that Russian leadership may be once again planning a decisive offensive based on erroneous assumptions about Russian military capabilities and likely lacks the combat power necessary to sustain more than one major offensive operation.[4] ISW also observed the Kremlin signaling preparations for an early 2023 offensive in December but assessed that the time and space relationship may hinder Russian rapid and large-scale advance aspirations as Ukraine heads into a muddy spring season unsuitable for maneuver warfare.[5]

The Russian nationalist information space is continuing to express worry over Russia’s inability to sustain a rapid and multi-pronged decisive offensive operation on a deadline. One prominent milblogger warned that Russian forces should not fall into the trap of attempting to start numerous offensive operations like they did in spring 2022 but instead focus on gradual advances that would generate high casualties among Ukrainian forces. The milblogger added that Russian military command should prioritize tiring Ukrainian forces and disrupting their logistics rather than conducting a frontal assault. Another milblogger stated that Russia still needs to create a breakthrough force and reject its current tactic of launching small, localized offensives that waste Russian combat on “capturing fields.”[6] ISW previously assessed that Russian efforts to conduct spoiling attacks and to fix Ukrainian forces further undermine the sustainability of a major offensive.

Russian state energy company Gazprom may be creating its own private security force, likely in an effort to normalize state-affiliated paramilitary groups and undermine private military companies (PMCs). The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on February 7 that Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin privately authorized Gazprom subsidiary Gazprom Nafta to establish a 70 percent stake in its own private security company under a law on the safety of fuel and energy complex assets.[7] While it is not inherently unusual for state and private energy companies to establish private security forces to protect their assets, the GUR noted that the creation of this PMC aligns with ongoing tensions between the Kremlin and Wagner Group PMC financier Yevgeny Prigozhin. Russia may use these Gazprom security forces for purposes other than protecting Russian energy assets.

The Kremlin may be considering implementing some demands previously voiced by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to build rapport with other nationalist figures who advocated for similar policies. Head of the Russian State Duma Committee on Security and Anti-Corruption Vasily Piskarev is reportedly preparing amendments to the Russian Criminal Code to include provisions against discreditation of individuals who participated in combat operations and volunteer detachments that assist the Russian Armed Forces during the war in Ukraine.[8] Russian state media credited Prigozhin as the initiator of the amendment, and the provision will likely include Wagner mercenaries whom the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) repeatedly labeled as “volunteers.”[9] The largest Russia media holding company, Gazprom Media, is reportedly planning to ban its media outlets (which include Russian federal TV channels) from publishing content on YouTube.[10] Russian outlets also speculated that Gazprom Media’s bans may be connected to efforts to block YouTube in Russia — another initiative that Prigozhin advocated for since late 2022.[11] Both provisions, if authorized, do not legalize Wagner or elevate Prigozhin’s coveted political authority in Russia. However, those provisions appeal to the broader nationalist and milblogger communities who had been calling for stricter limitations on Western media in Russia and for the Kremlin’s recognition of volunteers — which include proxy armed formations, volunteer battalions, and the Russian Combat Reserve (BARS).

The Russian State Duma further formalized the institution of social benefit schemes in occupied territories of Ukraine in order to further consolidate administrative control of occupied areas. State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin stated on February 7 that the Duma adopted the first reading of four bills on the legislative integration of social rights of the residents of occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[12] The bills define the minimum level of income, pension payments, sick leave, pregnancy and childcare benefits, and social support for veterans and the disabled and notably allows residents to submit documents to apply for social benefits in Ukrainian without a notarized translation into Russia.[13] The Duma bills represent the highest level of legislative integration of social benefit schemes thus far, having previously been defined and advertised in local forms by individual occupation officials. ISW continues to assess that such social benefit measures are a method of consolidating administrative control of occupied areas, as residents of occupied areas are forced to interact with Russian-controlled administrative organs to receive necessary payments.[14] The Duma bills codify and formalize these practices are part of the Russian legislative code.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is likely attempting to posture the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as an effective and involved leadership apparatus as the Russian military prepares for a renewed major offensive in Ukraine.

Russian military command may be rushing to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer Donetsk Oblast in an unrealistic timeframe and likely without sufficient combat power.

The Russian nationalist information space is continuing to express worry over Russia’s inability to sustain a rapid and multi-pronged decisive offensive operation on a deadline.

Russian state energy company Gazprom may be creating its own private security force, likely in an effort to normalize state-affiliated paramilitary groups and undermine non-state private military companies (PMCs).

The Kremlin may be implementing some demands previously voiced by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to build rapport with other nationalist figures who advocated for similar policies.

The Russian State Duma further formalized the institution of social benefit schemes in occupied territories of Ukraine in order to further consolidate administrative control of occupied areas.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove and Kreminna.

Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut.

Russian forces did not make confirmed territorial gains on the southern axis.

Russian officials appear to be investing in railway infrastructure to increase the efficiency of military logistics.

The Russian MoD is reportedly proposing a bill to allow all military personnel, including conscripts, to voluntarily participate in Russian peacekeeping missions.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove and Kreminna on February 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground attack near Novoselivske, 13km northwest of Svatove.[15] Kremlin-sponsored news outlet RIA Novosti published footage reportedly of Russian forces repelling a Ukrainian ground attack in Novoselivske on an unspecified but likely recent date.[16] Geolocated footage posted on February 6 shows that Russian T-90 tanks firing at Ukrainian forces in Novoselivske.[17] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Kreminna and Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna).[18] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced several kilometers near Bilohorivka, from which the milblogger claimed Ukrainian forces had previously withdrawn.[19] Ukrainian forces still maintain a presence in Bilohorivka, as ISW has recently reported.[20]

Russian sources are increasingly framing Russian offensive operations around Siversk (17km southwest of Kreminna) as supporting a broader effort against Lyman (23km west of Kreminna) rather than Bakhmut. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed that Russian forces experienced unspecified successes near Siversk and claimed that Russian forces must take Siversk in order to later take Lyman.[21] Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are advancing towards Siversk from the northeast near Bilohorivka, from the east near Zolotarivka, and from the southeast near Spirne.[22]

Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut on February 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhokamyanske (30km northeast) and Vesele (17km northeast); north of Bakhmut near Zaliznyanske (6km north), Krasna Hora (4km north), and Paraskoviivka (5km north); and west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (5km west).[23] Geolocated footage published on February 6 confirms Russian tactical advances north of Bakhmut near Blahodatne (7km north of Bakhmut) and Krasna Hora.[24] Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner Group forces are continuing efforts to take Krasna Hora and Paraskoviivka but that Ukrainian troops still hold these two settlements.[25] One milblogger claimed that Wagner has cleared up to 50 percent of Krasna Hora.[26] Several Russian sources also claimed that Wagner Group forces reached the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway but did not offer specifics on where this may have occurred.[27] Russian milbloggers continue to report that Ukrainian troops maintain control of Ivanivske, a critical settlement along the T0504.[28] Regardless of whether Wagner has reached the T0504, they are already close enough to the highway to substantially threaten Ukrainian supply capabilities along the route. The fact that the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut continues despite tangible threats to the T0504 suggests that its interdiction will not be the operationally significant victory that Russian sources have presented it as.

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in the Avdiivka–Donetsk City area or in western Donetsk Oblast on February 7. A Russian milblogger reported that elements of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Somalia” and “Sparta” battalions and “Slavic” Brigade are responsible for operations in the Avdiivka area.[29] Russian media outlet RT posted a report from Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City) and claimed that Ukrainian forces are fighting for the western part of the settlement but that it is harder for Ukrainian forces to hold their fortified areas due to high losses.[30] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian troops conducted limited counterattacks near Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City) on the evening of February 6.[31] Footage and imagery posted to social media shows the aftermath of Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions near Vuhledar, and a Ukrainian reserve officer claimed that Russian forces lost up to 30 armored vehicles during the counterattacks and associated strikes.[32]

Russian forces did not make confirmed territorial gains on the southern axis on February 7. Zaporizhia Oblast Occupation Administration member Vladimir Rogov claimed on February 7 that Russian forces secured their frontline positions in Zaporizhia Oblast and are fortifying new positions seized in January.[33] Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated on February 6 that Russian forces continue to shell the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River to encourage Ukrainian civilians living there to relocate deeper into occupied areas.[34] Ukrainian forces additionally continue to target Russian concentration areas in Kherson Oblast on February 7. Khlan added that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian watercraft and struck a Russian base on the east bank of the Dnipro River.[35] Geolocated footage published on February 7 showed a Ukrainian State Border Guard Service drone and artillery strike on Russian positions in Kardashynka (13km south of Kherson City on the east bank of the Dnipro) in Kherson Oblast.[36] Russian forces continued routine shelling in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv oblasts on February 7.[37]

Russian occupation officials continue efforts to consolidate control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Advisor to the Head of Rosenergoatom Renat Karchaa claimed on February 7 that Russian repairmen are completing the construction of structures to protect nuclear waste storage from shelling.[38] Karchaa claimed that Ukrainian workers who refused to sign contracts with Rosenergoatom are not allowed to work at the ZNPP.[39]

Russian officials appear to be investing in railway infrastructure to increase the efficiency of military logistics. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed during a teleconference on February 7 that Russia has been working to construct the Ulak-Fevralsk section (339km) of the Baikal-Amur Mainline Railroad since April 2021.[40] Shoigu claimed that Russian workers have completed the most intensive portion of the project and will fulfill the reconstruction task in a timely manner. Russian President Vladimir Putin also met with Russian Railways CEO Oleg Belozyorov on February 6.[41]

Russian officials continue efforts to target opposition voices who have left Russia. Russian State Duma Committee on Culture chairperson Elena Yampolskaya stated on February 6 that the Duma is forming a working group to establish potential punitive measures against people who left Russia, discredit the Russian Armed Forces, and support Ukraine.[42] The Duma working group will reportedly hear proposals on the confiscation of personal property, removal of state awards, and internet content bans and will report to Duma chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, who first proposed the confiscation of property in January.[43] Russian State Duma Committee of State Construction and Legislation chairperson Pavel Krasheninnikov, however, opposed efforts to punitively confiscate property from those who left Russian and emphasized the need for legislative amendments for existing law before such a motion can pass.[44] The divergence between Krasheninnikov and the Volodin camp suggests that there are certain fractures within the Russian political sphere on how to treat those who fled the country due to the war, as ISW has previously assessed.[45] United Russia parliamentarian Andrey Kolesnik called for those who left Russia and criticize the Russian Armed Forces to face the death penalty, suggesting that even more hardline factions continue to advocate for their positions. [46]

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly proposing a bill to allow all military personnel, including conscripts, to voluntarily participate in Russian peacekeeping missions.[47] Russian outlet RBC claimed on February 7 to have received a document pertaining to the bill, which reportedly proposes to expand categories of personnel eligible for participation in peacekeeping missions to be recruited ”on a voluntary basis by military personnel who have undergone preliminary special training,” which includes conscripts under existing Russian law.[48] The explanatory note on the document states that the Russian MoD is proposing this law to “improve the procedure” and “expand the possibilities” of recruitment for peacekeeping activities.[49] It is unclear why the Russian MoD is pursuing this proposal as it continues efforts to formalize Russian operations in Ukraine, but it may be an effort to set conditions to secure capabilities for peacekeeping missions abroad.

Russian occupation authorities continue to target religious organizations that lack Kremlin backing. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on February 7 that Russian occupation authorities are searching churches and detaining religious leaders of several denominations, including the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, and Jehovah’s Witnesses, in order to decrease local competition for influence with the state-affiliated Russian Orthodox Church.[50]

Russian authorities simplified the process to deprive Ukrainian citizens of their citizenship. The Russian State Duma adopted the first reading of a bill on February 7 that automatically deprives Ukrainian citizens of Ukrainian citizenship when they file to renounce their citizenship.[51] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 7 that occupation authorities in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, threaten to dismiss state employees without Russian citizenship and require all employees with Russian citizenship to renounce their Ukrainian citizenship in writing.[52] The Luhansk Oblast Military Administration stated on February 7 that occupation authorities in Luhansk Oblast predicate pensions and teaching positions on renunciation of Ukrainian citizenship and possession of a Russian passport.[53] The Luhansk Oblast Military Administration also stated that occupation authorities near Kremmina allow teachers who have not renounced Ukrainian citizenship and accepted Russian citizenship to continue working but reduce their salaries by 30 percent.[54]

Ukrainian partisans continue to target Russian military infrastructure in rear areas of occupied Ukraine. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated on February 7 that Ukrainian partisans committed arson against a Rovenky-Antratsyt railway connection control station near Yasenivskyi, Luhansk Oblast.[55]

Russian authorities continue to frame partisan activity and other forms of resistance in occupied Ukraine as terrorist activity to justify crackdowns against pro-Ukrainian actors. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Territorial Defense Headquarters announced on February 7 that the DNR is forming an anti-terrorist commission to organize law enforcement efforts and official means of preventing alleged “terrorist and extremist manifestations.”[56] A prominent Russian news source claimed that some Ukrainian residents near the Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast front line who refuse to evacuate to rear areas may transmit information about Russian troop movements to Ukrainian forces.[57] The source claimed that Russian forces see the “evacuation” of civilians to rear areas as the best solution to this problem, suggesting that Russian authorities may increase measures to force civilians to evacuate and cooperate with the occupation government.

Senior Belarusian leadership, including unspecified members of the presidential administration, security council, and department heads, conducted a large-scale training simulation on national security responses at the Belarusian Military Academy on February 7.[58] The Belarusian Ministry of Defense previously announced a snap military readiness check of the Military Academy of Belarus on February 6, as ISW has reported.[59]

Belarusian maneuver elements continue conducting exercises in Belarus. Two unspecified airborne assault companies of the Belarusian 38th Airborne Assault Brigade conducted live fire and reconnaissance exercises at the Brest Training Ground in Brest, Belarus, on February 7.[60]

[1] https://t.me/mod_russia/24008; https://telegra dot ph/Vstupitelnoe-slovo-Ministra-oborony-Rossijskoj-Federacii-generala-armii-Sergeya-SHojgu-na-tematicheskom-selektornom-soveshchanii-02-07

[2] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... https://isw.pub/UkrWar011523

[3] https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1622843727298404353/photo/1

[4] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...

[5] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass... https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...

[6] https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19098

[7] https://gur.gov dot ua/content/hazprom-stvoriuie-vlasnu-pryvatnu-viiskovu-kompaniiu.html

[8] https://t.me/rian_ru/193495; https://t.me/rian_ru/192100; https://t.me/rlz_the_kraken/56297

[9] https://t.me/rian_ru/193495; https://t.me/rian_ru/192100

[10] https://t.me/bazabazon/15722; https://t.me/bazabazon/14188; https://me... io/news/2023/02/07/baza-proektam-gazprom-media-zapretili-vykladyvat-kontent-na-youtube

[11] https://t.me/bazabazon/15722; https://t.me/bazabazon/14188; https://me... io/news/2023/02/07/baza-proektam-gazprom-media-zapretili-vykladyvat-kontent-na-youtube; https://t.me/concordgroup_official/288; https://t.me/concordgroup_official/17

[12] https://t.me/rt_special/2884; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/22055

[13] https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/22055

[15] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0CMdimBzPyeJVk5d33yb...

[16] https://t.me/rian_ru/193356; https://t.me/rybar/43364; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/10727

[17] https://t.me/milinfolive/96651 ; https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/14615

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1622901317520818178; https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1622778797224349696; https://twitter.com/TankDiary/status/1622728548166340608

[18] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0CMdimBzPyeJVk5d33yb...

[19] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/77414

[20] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[21] https://t.me/readovkanews/52153

[22] https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/22041; https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/14607

[23] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0CMdimBzPyeJVk5d33yb...

[24] https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/1622865288332029952; https://twit... https://twitter.com/blinzka/status/1622712314058211355

[25] https://t.me/epoddubny/14829; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/10424; https://...

[26] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/77460

[27] https://t.me/wargonzo/10768; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/45049

[28] https://t.me/epoddubny/14829; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/10424; https://...

[29] https://t.me/wargonzo/10772

[30] https://t.me/sashakots/38411

[31] https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1622653927597514788?s=20&t=AOXH...

[32] https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1622653927597514788?s=20&t=AOXH...

[33] https://t.me/vrogov/7543

[34] https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid0wmoPUJfkKsc9tqiTh4c4WB...

[35] https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid0wmoPUJfkKsc9tqiTh4c4WB...

[36] https://t.me/DPSUkr/9443; https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/16...

[37] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eA2mPP1SLdtzU5tu7XQ...

[38] https://t.me/readovkanews/52147

[39] https://t.me/readovkanews/52147

[40] https://t.me/mod_russia/24008; https://telegra dot ph/Vstupitelnoe-slovo-Ministra-oborony-Rossijskoj-Federacii-generala-armii-Sergeya-SHojgu-na-tematicheskom-selektornom-soveshchanii-02-07

[41] https://t.me/mod_russia/24008; https://telegra%20dot%20ph/Vstupitelnoe-slovo-Ministra-oborony-Rossijsko...

[42]  https://iz dot ru/1464646/vasilisa-iaseneva/narushiteli-v-poriadke-v-gd-otceniat-mery-protiv-diskreditiruiushchikh-stranu-relokantov; https://t.me/tvrain/62479; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilization-feb-5-6

[43] https://iz dot ru/1464646/vasilisa-iaseneva/narushiteli-v-poriadke-v-gd-otceniat-mery-protiv-diskreditiruiushchikh-stranu-relokantov; https://t.me/tvrain/62479; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilization-feb-5-...

[44] https://www.rbc dot ru/politics/06/02/2023/63e0c86a9a79473064054a7c?from=from_main_4; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilization-feb-5-6

[45] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...

[46] https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/7509

[47] https://meduza dot io/news/2023/02/07/minoborony-rf-predlozhilo-razreshit-uchastvovat-v-mirotvorcheskih-missiyah-vsem-voennym-v-tom-chisle-prizyvnikam; https://www.rbc dot ru/politics/07/02/2023/63e1134a9a794758bbe93eef?from=from_main_1

[48] https://www.rbc dot ru/politics/07/02/2023/63e1134a9a794758bbe93eef?from=from_main_1

[49] https://www.rbc dot ru/politics/07/02/2023/63e1134a9a794758bbe93eef?from=from_main_1

[50] https://sprotyv.mod dot gov.ua/2023/02/07/rosiyany-utyskayut-nepidkontrolni-konfesiyi/

[51] https://t.me/kommunist/15582; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/77483;

[52]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eA2mPP1SLdtzU5tu7XQ...

[53] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/8411; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/8410

[54] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/8411; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/8410

[55] https://t.me/serhiy_hayday/9332

[56] https://t.me/TRO_DPR/11366

[57] https://t.me/readovkanews/52167; https://t.me/andriyshTime/6476

[58] https://t.me/modmilby/22405; https://t.me/modmilby/22418

[59] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[60] https://t.me/modmilby/22419; https://t.me/modmilby/22395

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2023

Feb 8, 2023 - Press ISW

Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Layne Philipson, Nicole Wolkov, and Mason Clark

February 8, 8:30pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

[1] Geolocated combat footage has confirmed Russian gains in the Dvorichne area northwest of Svatove.

[2] Russian military command additionally appears to have fully committed elements of several conventional divisions to decisive offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, as ISW previously reported.

[3] Elements of several regiments of the 144

[4]

The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains. The Russian offensive likely has not yet reached its full tempo; Russian command has not yet committed elements of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District), which deployed to Luhansk Oblast in January after deploying to Belarus.[5] Russian forces are gradually beginning an offensive, but its success is not inherent or predetermined. While Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast now have the initiative (in that Russian forces are setting the terms of battle, ending the period of Ukrainian initiative from August 2022), the full commitment of these forces could lead to their eventual culmination along the Svatove-Kreminna line without achieving their objectives of capturing all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. That culmination would likely provide a window of opportunity for Ukrainian forces to exploit with their own counteroffensive.[6]

Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) People’s Militia command reportedly assumed control over a Russian artillery battalion, likely in support of an effort to strengthen degraded DNR forces ahead of an imminent Russian offensive. A Russian source published a video appeal from mobilized personnel of the 640th howitzer battalion from Saratov Oblast on February 8 in which they stated that Russian military officials sent them to join DNR units and that DNR commanders are now trying to transfer them to infantry assault units.[7] ISW has not previously observed Russian personnel subordinated to a DNR formation and this claim, if true, would suggest that Russian forces may be reinforcing degraded DNR formations with mobilized personnel from Russia itself because DNR formations are unable to replenish losses themselves. The reported subordination of Russian military personnel to DNR formations may portend a Russian effort to prepare DNR formations for an expanded role in their zone of responsibility along the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and the transfer of remaining conventional Russian forces from this area to the Bakhmut area and Luhansk Oblast, where Russian forces are conducting an increased pace of offensive operations.

[8] Russian forces would likely need to temporarily remove these irregular forces from frontline positions to integrate them into new Russian formations, a prospect that would not be operationally sound ahead of increased Russan offensive operations in Ukraine. Russian officials therefore may be attempting to gradually integrate these irregular formations through subordinating mobilized personnel under them without disrupting the command structures and existing personnel operating at front line positions. The mobilized personnel of the 640

[9] The Russian MoD will likely struggle to correct the poor effectiveness of DNR/LNR forces through the rapid integration of Russian personnel.

Russian officials continue to propose measures to prepare Russia’s military industry for a protracted war in Ukraine while also likely setting further conditions for sanctions evasion. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stated on February 8 that the Russian government will subsidize investment projects for the modernization of enterprises operating in the interests of the Russian military and will allocate significant funds for manufacturing new military equipment.[10] Mishustin also stated that the Russian government would extend benefits to Russian entrepreneurs who support the Russian military, including extended payment periods on rented federal property.[11] The Kremlin likely intends these measures to augment its overarching effort to gradually prepare Russia’s military industry for a protracted war in Ukraine while avoiding a wider economic mobilization that would create further domestic economic disruptions and corresponding discontent.[12]

Russian officials also likely proposed these measures in coordination with a recent decree excluding Russian officials from requirements to list income declarations and proposals to repeal federal procurement procedures. The Kremlin may be creating a system of subsidies and benefits designed to have little oversight or accounting. This lack of oversight and accounting would likely allow Russian firms to better evade international sanctions regimes targeting Russia’s military industry.[13] The United Kingdom announced a new list of sanctioned entities on February 8 focused on Russia’s military industry.[14] ISW previously reported that 82% of Iranian-made drones downed in Ukraine had chips, semiconductors, and other components from the United States, suggesting that Russia and Iran are likely exploiting loopholes to transfer Western-produced arms components to Russia via proxy actors.[15] The Kremlin’s effort to prepare the Russian military industry for a protracted war in Ukraine in part relies on the ability of Russian military industry to have consistent access to multiple secure supply chains of key foreign components that it otherwise cannot produce.

Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast.

The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains.

Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) People’s Militia command reportedly assumed control over a Russian artillery battalion, likely in support of an effort to strengthen degraded DNR forces ahead of an imminent Russian offensive.

The reported subordination of Russian mobilized personnel to DNR formations could also suggest that Russian military command may be continuing efforts to integrate ad hoc DNR and Luhansk People‘s Republic (LNR) formations into the Russian Armed Forces, but will likely face significant difficulties.

Russian officials continue to propose measures to prepare Russia’s military industry for a protracted war in Ukraine while also likely setting further conditions for sanctions evasion.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks around Bakhmut and continued making tactical advances.

Russian forces continued offensive actions northwest of Svatove and intensified offensive operations near Kreminna.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continue small-scale skirmishes and reconnaissance activity in the Dnipro River delta and on the Kinburn Spit.

The Wagner Group is reportedly resorting to more coercive tactics in its prison recruitment campaign, possibly in response to the campaign’s declining effectiveness.

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts);

Russia Subordinate Main Effort #1—Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2—Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1- Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and  northern Donetsk Oblast)

ISW continues to assess the current Russian most likely course of action (MLCOA) is an imminent offensive effort in Luhansk Oblast and is therefore adjusting the structure of the daily campaign assessments. We will no longer include the Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast area as part of Ukrainian counteroffensives and will assess this area as a subordinate part of the Russian main effort in Eastern Ukraine. The assessment of Luhansk Oblast as part of the Russian main effort does not preclude the possibility of continued Ukrainian counteroffensive actions here or anywhere else in theater in the future. ISW will report out on Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts as they occur.

Russian forces continued offensive actions northwest of Svatove on February 8. Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleh Synehubov reported on February 8 that Russian forces are increasing their presence northwest of Svatove in the Kupyansk and Dvorichna areas.[16] A former Luhansk People‘s Republic (LNR) deputy claimed that fierce fighting is ongoing 7km from the Kupyansk area, likely referring to areas near Synkivka, which Russian sources claimed Russian forces captured on February 6.[17] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack near Novoselivske, about 15km northwest of Svatove.[18]  Former Russian militant commander and nationalist milblogger Igor Girkin denied that Russian forces have made any significant territorial gains in Kharkiv Oblast, particularly in the Kupyansk direction, as of February 8.[19]

[20] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces attacked near Chervonopopivka (5km north of Kreminna).

[21] Several Russian milbloggers circulated unconfirmed footage of unspecified Central and Western Military District elements which crossed the Zherebets River running north to south in western Luhansk Oblast, roughly parallel to the Svatove-Kreminna line) and captured Ukrainian positions in an unspecified location around February 6.

[22] Russian sources also reported that elements of the 3

[23] A prominent Russian milblogger posted footage of the 59

[24]

Russian forces continued offensive operations south of Kreminna on February 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian troops attacked near Shepilove (7km south of Kreminna) and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna).[25] Chechen Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that elements of the Chechen ”Akhmat” special forces and 2nd Brigade of the Luhansk People’s Republic 2nd Army Corps captured Ukrainian positions near Berestove, 30km south of Kreminna.[26] Russian forces appear to be pushing northeast of the Bakhmut area towards Siversk (17km southwest of Kreminna) to provide a supporting line of advance to the likely main Russian push directly westward toward Kreminna.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces conducted ground attacks around Bakhmut and continued making tactical advances on February 8. Geolocated footage posted between February 4 and 8 confirms that Russian forces have made marginal advances north of Bakhmut near Krasna Hora and Zaliznyanske (10km north of Bakhmut), in the Stupky area of northern Bakhmut, and southwest of Bakhmut near Ivanivske.[27] Russian forces are visually confirmed to be within 2.5 km of the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway.[28] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamyanske (30km northeast), Fedorivka (15km northeast), Spirne (27km northeast), and Vymika (20km northeast); north of Bakhmut near Paraskoviivka (5km north) and Krasna Hora (4km north); northwest of Bakhmut near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (12km northwest) and Dubovo-Vasylivka (7km northwest); and west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (5km west) and Chasiv Yar (10km west).[29]  The Ukrainian General Staff’s report that Russian forces are attacking towards Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka is consistent with geolocated combat footage and indicates that Russian forces seek to encircle Bakhmut by cutting off Ukrainian forces’ access to the E40. Similarly, the report of a Russian attack on Chasiv Yar indicates that Russian forces have likely advanced closer to the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway southwest of Bakhmut.  Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group fighters took control of Krasna Hora and are fighting northeast of Bakhmut.[30] Russian milbloggers also claimed that Wagner Group forces established fire control over a section of the T0504 highway between Stupochky and Ivanivske.[31]

[32] Former Russian officer and prominent milblogger Igor Girkin claimed that Russian forces did not advance near Avdiivka and took heavy losses.

[33] Another milblogger claimed that fighting is ongoing in western Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City) and that unspecified elements of the Southern Military District (SMD) advanced through urban areas of Marinka on February 8.

[34] The milblogger also stated that Russian forces were able to gain a foothold in positions near a tire repair plant in Marinka.

[35] Videos posted by milbloggers on February 8 reportedly show SMD tank units attacking a Ukrainian position in Marinka and Russian tanks operating in western Marinka.

[36] Former Deputy LNR Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselev posted a video on February 8 purportedly showing Russian elements of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army, SMD) attacking Marinka and claimed that Russian forces had cleared all Ukrainian fortifications there.

[37] The deployment of valuable Russian conventional military units (as opposed to DNR proxy forces) in the area is notable, if confirmed. Girkin, however, claimed that the situation in Marinka has not changed and continues at a sluggish pace.

[38]

[39] Russian sources made conflicting claims about the status of operations in this area. One milblogger claimed that fierce fighting is ongoing near Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City), while other milbloggers stated that there is no active fighting in the area.

[40]

[41]

[42]

Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continued small scale skirmishes and reconnaissance activity in the Dnipro River delta and on the Kinburn Spit on February 8. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported that Russian forces are using small boats to try to maintain a presence on islands in the Dnipro River delta south of Kherson City and that Ukrainian forces have deployed long-range artillery to strike several Russian outposts on the islands.[43] The UK MoD reported that Russian and Ukrainian forces have likely deployed small groups on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast, aiming to control the Dnipro Gulf.[44] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Natalia Humenyuk previously stated that Russian forces are increasing the number of reconnaissance and sabotage attempts in the area of the Dnipro River delta as part of an information operation to create a perceived threat against Kherson City.[45]

Russian forces continue to construct defensive fortifications in Zaporizhia Oblast. Satellite imagery collected between January 26 and February 7 shows Russian forces expanding trench and field fortifications near Tarasivka, Zaporizhia Oblast.[46] Russian forces likely constructed these fortifications to further strengthen Russian positions along the T0401 highway between Polohy and Tokmak.  Russian forces are likely establishing long defensive lines along critical grounds lines of communication (GLOCs) in Zaporizhia Oblast in preparation to defend against possible future Ukrainian counteroffensive operations along the Zaporizhia frontline. However, ISW has not observed Russian forces constructing defenses intended to halt a cross-country Ukrainian attack on a large front, and defensive positions remain limited to main roads.

Russian forces continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv Oblasts on February 8.[47] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Kherson City and in the vicinity of Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast.[48]

Russian officials continued attempts to extend social benefits held by regular Russian servicemembers to volunteer formations serving in Ukraine. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stated on February 8 that the Russian government has prepared new measures to support volunteers, including increasing pensions and social assistance payments related to injuries and disabilities.[49] The Russian State Duma is reportedly drafting a bill to include provisions against discrediting volunteer detachments assisting the Russian military in Ukraine, as Wagner Group Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin previously demanded.[50] The Kremlin is likely pursuing efforts to more formally recognize volunteer formations in order to mitigate continued criticism of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) over the unclear status of volunteer formations.[51]

The Wagner Group is reportedly resorting to more coercive tactics in its campaign to recruit prisoners, possibly in response to declining numbers of recruits since autumn 2022. Independent Russian outlet Agentstvo reported on February 8 that Russian lawyers and human rights activists stated that Wagner Group representatives and Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs and Federal Security Service (FSB) officials are threatening prisoners in Samara and Rostov oblasts, Krasnodar Krai, and the North Caucasus with new criminal cases if they refuse to volunteer with the Wagner Group in Ukraine.[52] One of the lawyers reportedly stated that fewer convicts have agreed to volunteer with the Wagner Group in an unspecified recent period because of information about its high casualties, supporting ISW’s previous assessment that Russian convicts’ resistance may have caused a decline in the Wagner Group’s prison recruitment campaign.[53] The Wagner Group will likely continue these more coercive practices as it seeks to replenish its forces in Ukraine with more convict recruits following months of highly attritional human wave attacks in eastern Ukraine.

Russian officials continue to promote incremental efforts to fix longstanding personnel issues associated with mobilization. Russian Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council (and head of the mobilization working group) Andrey Turchak claimed that the mobilization working group has received appeals from 22,000 Russian servicemembers and their family members since holding its first meeting on December 29, 2022, addressing issues like the incorrect accrual of payments and the wrongful mobilization of fathers with many children who should be exempt.[54] Turchak stated that the working group has heavily focused on solving poor recordkeeping issues through efforts to digitize military registration information from military recruitment offices.[55] Turchak claimed that the working group sent a report to Russian President Vladimir Putin with recommendations to establish comprehensive rehabilitation centers, a minimum set of measures to support family members, a reduced term for recognizing a Russian soldier as missing, and a guarantee for receiving pensions.[56] These proposals and efforts are likely meant primarily to placate ultranationalist figures that criticized the numerous issues associated with mobilization and hedge against further domestic discontent ahead of a likely second wave of mobilization.

Russian occupation authorities are continuing efforts to increase connectivity between Russia and southern Ukraine. Kherson Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo claimed on February 8 that Russian occupation authorities have approved design and research works on a new highway that will run from Crimea, north of the Sea of Azov, to Rostov-on-Don, Russia.[57] Saldo also claimed that the construction of a new town in the Arabat Spit in northeast Crimea has begun.[58] ISW has previously assessed that Russian occupation authorities likely seek to increase the population in the deep rear of occupied territories to strengthen production capabilities and support logistics related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.[59]

Russian occupation authorities continue to lean on patronage-like partnerships with Russian federal subjects to restore infrastructure in occupied territories. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed on February 8 that he held a meeting with Sakhalin Oblast Governor Valery Limarenko in which they discussed Sakhalin Oblast’s plans to help repair kindergartens, stadiums, schools, and playgrounds in occupied Shakhtarsk, Donetsk Oblast.[60] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik held a meeting with Voronezh Oblast Governor Aleksandr Gusev on February 8 during which Gusev claimed that Voronezh Oblast hopes to develop occupied Luhansk Oblast to not only extract raw materials, but also to develop a processing industry.[61] Gusev claimed that Voronezh Oblast will double the amount of aid it previously provided occupied Luhansk Oblast in 2022 to bring living standards in occupied Luhansk Oblast to those of Russia’s “national” level.[62]

Belarusian airborne forces may be conducting tactical force-on-force exercises with Russian airborne elements in Belarus. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced on February 8 that unspecified airborne infantry companies — likely of the Belarusian 38th Air Assault Brigade — conducted a force-on-force company tactical exercise at the Brest Training Ground, emphasizing using unmanned aerial vehicles, urban warfare, small unit tactics, and tactical medicine.[63] It is unclear if Russian airborne forces participated in this exercise. The Belarusian 38th Air Assault Brigade has historically conducted joint exercises with elements of the Russian 76th Air Assault Division, 106th Airborne Division, and the 31st Air Assault Brigade - all units that have taken casualties in Ukraine and require regeneration.[64]

Belarusian maneuver elements continue conducting exercises in Belarus. Unspecified elements of the Belarusian 19th Separate Guards Mechanized Brigade conducted tactical readiness exercises at the Lepelsky Training Ground in Vitebsk Oblast, Belarus, on February 8.[65]

[1] https://isw.pub/UkrWar020623; https://isw.pub/UkrWar020423; https://isw.pub/UkrWar020223

[2] https://t.me/DeepStateUA/15451

[3] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[4] https://t.me/rybar/43387; https://t.me/notes_veterans/7845; https://t....

[5]https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operation...

[6] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[7] https://t.me/ostorozhno_novosti/14167

[8] https://isw.pub/UkrWar020323 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar020423

[9] https://t.me/ostorozhno_novosti/14167

[10] https://podolyaka dot ru/2023/02/08/zayavleniya-premer-ministra-rf-mihaila-mishustina-o-podderzhke-uchastnikov-svo-i-voennoy-promyshlennosti/; https://stolica-s dot su/archives/366231; https://t.me/rybar/43402

[11] https://podolyaka dot ru/2023/02/08/zayavleniya-premer-ministra-rf-mihaila-mishustina-o-podderzhke-uchastnikov-svo-i-voennoy-promyshlennosti/; https://stolica-s dot su/archives/366231; https://t.me/rybar/43402

[12] https://isw.pub/UkrWar011823 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar010723 ;

[13] https://isw.pub/UkrWar020623 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar020123

[14] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-sanctions-target-putins-war-machi...

[15] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-war-russia-iranian-drones-us-made-t...

[16] https://suspilne dot media/amp/378863-de-okupanti-posiluut-prisutnist-na-harkivsini-dani-sinegubova/

[17] https://t.me/kommunist/15598; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...

[18]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FuH223o7wLNSiJSNdCX...

[19] https://t.me/strelkovii/3896

[20] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/8438

[21]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FuH223o7wLNSiJSNdCX...

[22] https://t.me/russkiy_opolchenec/35783; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/37711

[23] https://t.me/rybar/43387; https://t.me/notes_veterans/7845

[24] https://t.me/wargonzo/10782

[25]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FuH223o7wLNSiJSNdCX...

[26] https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/3332

[27] https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1623368452667805701https://twitter.com/SerDer_Daniels/status/1623295739890630657; https://...

[28] https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1623071883988987905; https://twitter.com/EerikMatero/status/1623076900548517892; https://twitter.com/neonhandrail/status/1623206937134497792; https://twitter.com/neonhandrail/status/1623207358888558593

[29]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FuH223o7wLNSiJSNdCX...

[30] https://t.me/wargonzo/10773; https://t.me/strelkovii/3896

[31] https://t.me/DonbassYasinovatayanaliniiOgnia/36445; https://t.me/Neofic...

[32]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FuH223o7wLNSiJSNdCX...

[33] https://t.me/strelkovii/3896

[34] https://t.me/rybar/43405

[35] https://t.me/rybar/43405

[36] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/77568; https://t.me/sashakots/38439

[37] https://t.me/kommunist/15635

[38] https://t.me/strelkovii/3896

[39]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FuH223o7wLNSiJSNdCX...

[40] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/77574; https://t.me/wargonzo/10773

[41] https://t.me/strelkovii/3896

[42] https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/29230

[43] https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1623199796352745475/photo/1

[44] https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1623199796352745475/photo/1

[45] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2023/02/01/zbilshennya-kilkosti-rozviduvalnyh-grup-voroga-v-gyrli-dnipra-mozhe-buty-oznakoyu-nagnitannya-sytuacziyi-gumenyuk/

[46] https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1623082928283746304?s=20&t=ETx-WeYab...

[47]

https://t.me/mykolaivskaODA/4236 ;

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FuH223o7wLNSiJSNdCX... ;

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02kL8XZwXNsSUphpcF5S... ;

https://t.me/khersonskaODA/3607 ;

https://t.me/khersonskaODA/3616;

https://t.me/khersonskaODA/3613;

https://t.me/khersonskaODA/3615 ;

https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid02L4QqnKMLM3QLzY1pvQrr5... ;

https://t.me/mykolaivskaODA/4236  ;

https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/16505  ;

https://t.me/vilkul/2680  ;

https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2419

[48] https://t.me/mykolaivskaODA/4236 ;  https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FuH223o7wLNSiJSNdCX... ;  https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02kL8XZwXNsSUphpcF5S... ; https://t.me/khersonskaODA/3607

[49] https://podolyaka dot ru/2023/02/08/zayavleniya-premer-ministra-rf-mihaila-mishustina-o-podderzhke-uchastnikov-svo-i-voennoy-promyshlennosti/; https://stolica-s dot su/archives/366231; https://t.me/rybar/43402

[50] https://isw.pub/UkrWar020723; https://t.me/concordgroup_official/425; https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/2612

[51] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[52] https://t.me/agentstvonews/2482

[53] https://t.me/agentstvonews/2482 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar020123

[54] https://t.me/turchak_andrey/1032 ;  https://isw.pub/UkrWar122922

[55] https://t.me/turchak_andrey/1032

[56] https://t.me/turchak_andrey/1032

[57] https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/363; https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/365

[58] https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/363; https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/365

[60] https://t.me/pushilindenis/3165

[61] https://t.me/glava_lnr_info/745; https://t.me/glava_lnr_info/748

[62] https://t.me/glava_lnr_info/745; https://t.me/glava_lnr_info/748

[63] https://t.me/modmilby/22455; https://t.me/modmilby/22419

[64] https://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/OSW-Report_Russia%E2%80%99s-B...

[65] https://t.me/modmilby/22470

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2023

Feb 9, 2023 - Press ISW

Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan

February 9, 7:30 pm ET

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on February 9 that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners. In a response to a press comment, Prigozhin claimed that Wagner’s recruitment of prisoners has "completely stopped" and that "all obligations are being fulfilled" for those currently under Wagner’s employ.[1] Prigozhin also absurdly claimed that over 10 million Americans have applied to join Wagner.[2] The Wagner Group will likely continue to recruit from prisons, albeit in a much more limited capacity. As ISW has previously noted, Wagner’s recruitment of prisoners has slowed over the last few months, an assessment confirmed by statistics by the Federal Penitentiary Service that show that decreases in the Russian prison population stabilized between November 2022 and January 2023.[3] This phenomenon is consistent with the overall trend of conventional Russian troops slowly replacing the Wagner Group around Bakhmut, indicating that Russian military command may be shifting away from its reliance on Wagner and therefore on using prisoners as cannon fodder.

The Kremlin continues to pursue measures to gradually prepare Russia’s defense-industrial base for a protracted war in Ukraine while avoiding wider economic mobilization. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with the Supervisory Board of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives on February 9 and instructed the agency to support federal subjects in developing the production of unmanned aircraft systems.[4] Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev previously stated that Russian military manufacturers intend to expand the supply of reconnaissance and attack drones to support operations in Ukraine, and Russian and Iranian officials are reportedly planning to build a factory in Russia to manufacture 6,000 drones "in the coming years."[5]

Medvedev visited a tank manufacturing plant in Omsk Oblast on February 9 and stated that Russia needs to increase the production of various armaments, including modern tanks, in response to Western military assistance to Ukraine.[6] Dutch open-source group Oryx reported that Russian forces have lost 1,012 destroyed tanks in Ukraine with an additional 546 tanks captured by Ukrainian forces.[7] Oryx reported that these combined losses represent roughly half the tanks that Russian forces committed to Ukraine at the start of the invasion.[8] Fifteen hundred tanks are enough to equip more than 15 tank regiments or brigades or about 150 battalion tactical groups.[9] The Russian military needs to quickly replenish these tank losses to maintain the ability to conduct large-scale mechanized maneuver warfare ahead of a likely increased pace of offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. Medvedev likely framed his calls for increased production as a response to Western military assistance to obscure the fact that substantial military equipment losses are driving the need for increased production. The Kremlin’s efforts to gradually prepare Russia’s defense industrial base for a protracted war while avoiding a wider mobilization of the Russian economy continue to be incompatible with the scale of the war that the Russian military is fighting in Ukraine and the scale of Russian military equipment losses.

A prominent Wagner-linked Russian milblogger called for the dismissal of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu over a Russian military uniform procurement scandal. Many prominent Russian military bloggers harshly criticized Shoigu and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) over news that the 22-year-old son of the Russian Deputy Head of the Federal Agency for State Property Management won a contract to supply the Russian military with new uniforms.[10] The milbloggers argued that the new uniforms are of inferior quality and overpriced (costing about 130,000-210,000 rubles or $1,780 - $2,875 per uniform) and are part of a petty corruption scheme to enrich the families of Russian defense officials. The Grey Zone Telegram channel—a prominent Wagner Group-affiliated milblogger – wrote an explicative-laden rant to its 426,000 subscribers that Shoigu has lost credibility in front of the Russian nation and that Russian President Vladimir Putin can amend the situation by firing Shoigu, Shoigu’s "entourage" in the Russian General Staff and banning Shoigu and his associates from all Russian military affairs.[11] This is the latest episode in a string of events that has prompted Russian military blogger communities to attack the Russian MoD and senior Kremlin officials for petty corruption and ineptitude resulting in battlefield failures and worse quality of life for average Russian soldiers.[12]

The Kremlin continues to show that it is unwilling to curb divisive rhetoric from ultranationalist pro-war figures. Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov publicly sparred with Duma Deputy General Viktor Sobolev following Sobolev’s criticism of Kadyrov’s statements on grooming standards in the Russian military being discriminatory against Muslims and calls for the Russian military to fight satanism in Poland.[13] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on February 9 that the Kremlin is "not participating in this controversy and would not like to give any assessments" about it.[14] The Kremlin will continue to tolerate divisive rhetoric from ultranationalist figures as it seeks to appeal to the wider pro-war community.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners.

The Kremlin continues to pursue measures to gradually prepare Russia’s defense industrial base for a protracted war in Ukraine.

A prominent Wagner-linked Russian milblogger called for the dismissal of Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu over a Russian military uniform procurement scandal.

The Kremlin continues to illustrate that it is unwilling to curb divisive rhetoric from ultranationalist pro-war figures.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and continued offensive operations around Bakhmut.

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian sources claimed that the Russian military integrated a Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) volunteer formation into the Russian Armed Forces.

Russian sources claimed that Russian authorities detained a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempting to assassinate Russian occupation officials.

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1—Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1- Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

ISW continues to assess that Russia's most likely course of action (MLCOA) is an imminent offensive effort in Luhansk Oblast and is therefore adjusting the structure of the daily campaign assessments. We will no longer include the Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast area as part of Ukrainian counteroffensives and will assess this area as a subordinate part of the Russian main effort in Eastern Ukraine. The assessment of Luhansk Oblast as part of the Russian main effort does not preclude the possibility of continued Ukrainian counteroffensive actions here or anywhere else in theater in the future. ISW will report on Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts as they occur.

Russian forces continued offensive actions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on February 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack near Stelmakhivka, 15km west of Svatove.[15] Russian milbloggers circulated footage reportedly of elements of the 3rd Motor Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) correcting artillery strikes in an unidentified sector of the Svatove-Kreminna line.[16] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that  Central Military District elements are operating in the Lyman direction (the area west of Kreminna) and using TOS-1 thermobaric multiple rocket launch systems.[17] The commitment of a military district-level asset such as the TOS-1 to the Kreminna area suggests that the Russian MoD is prioritizing this axis. Widely circulated social media footage posted on February 9 additionally shows a Ukrainian strike on a Russian BMPT Terminator armored fighting vehicle about 8km south of Kreminna, indicating that the Russian command is committing new equipment to this area of the front.[18] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack near Bilohorivka.[19] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops are conducting offensive operations north of Bilohorivka and attacked along the Shepilove-Dibrova line, about 5km south of Kreminna.[20]

Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut on February 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Vyimka (22km northeast) and Fedorivka (15km northeast); north of Bakhmut near Krasna Hora (4km north) and Paraskoviivka (5km north); and west of Bakhmut near Ivanviske (5km west) and Chasiv Yar (10km west).[21] A Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops have recently changed their tactics in the Bakhmut area and are focusing less on frontal assaults on small settlements and more on interdicting Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into Bakhmut along the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk and T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highways.[22] This observation is consistent with the Ukrainian General Staff report of Russian attacks towards Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske, both critical settlements along the T0504. Other Russian milbloggers similarly claimed that Wagner Group forces are pushing towards Ivanivske and attacking along the E40 near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest of Bakhmut) and Dubovo-Vasylivka (5km northwest of Bakhmut).[23] Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces are additionally attacking toward Krasna Hora from three sides and that Ukrainian troops are close to withdrawing from the settlement.[24]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on February 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Avdiivka, north of Avdiivka near Novokalynove, and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City near Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Vesele, Krasnohorivka, and Marinka.[25] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City resumed offensives near Krasnohorivka, advanced near Vodyane and Opytne, failed to break through near Pervomaiske, and continued attacks in western Marinka.[26] Social media footage published on February 9 purportedly shows elements of the 5th Brigade of the 1st Army Corps (forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic) attacking Ukrainian positions near Marinka.[27]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bohoyavlenka (25km southwest of Donetsk City) and Prechystivka (38km southwest of Donetsk City).[28] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces resumed assault operations on the outskirts of Vuhledar.[29] A Ukrainian reserve officer also reported that the majority ethnic Tatar volunteer battalion "Alga" of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rdArmy Corps) fought near Vuhledar on February 6.[30] The reserve officer suggested that the use of volunteer battalions in this area indicates that the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades, which were previously active in the area, sustained insurmountable losses and are being replaced by other formations.[31] Recently posted footage from the Vuhledar area shows a defeated Russian mechanized formation of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade that lost 13 main battle tanks and 12 BMP infantry fighting vehicles in a single engagement - about half a Russian tank battalion.[32] The footage shows the Russian formation driving in a column displaying poor tactics and a lack of learning from previous Russian tactical failures.[33] Separate drone footage published on February 8 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian forces approaching Vuhledar.[34] Geolocated footage published February 7 also shows reported elements of the 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (29th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) striking Ukrainian positions on the eastern outskirts of Vuhledar.[35]

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in Zaporizhia Oblast on February 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Novoandriivka, Zaporizhia Oblast.[36] Russian forces additionally continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson oblasts on February 9.[37] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Kherson City and Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[38]

Russian sources claimed that the Russian military integrated a Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) volunteer formation into the Russian Armed Forces. A Russian milblogger claimed that the former DNR Vostok volunteer battalion is now formally the 11th Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces.[39] The DNR Vostok volunteer battalion commander, a notable Russian milblogger, has not addressed the reported integration. The Russian milblogger did not specify what higher formation the 11th regiment is subordinated to, but it is possible that it is subordinated to the Southern Military District which formally controls the DNR 1st Army Corps. This regiment may be assigned to a new unspecified Russian maneuver division. ISW previously assessed that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be rushing to integrate irregular conventional forces into more traditional structures and will likely struggle to correct these formations‘ poor effectiveness during integration efforts.[40]

A Russian military court reportedly ruled that Russian commanders can legally refuse to release servicemembers from service at the end of their contracts. A Russian media outlet reported on February 8 that a Perm Oblast military garrison court ruled in favor of Russian commanders in a lawsuit filed by a serviceman who claimed that the commanders refused to release him from service when his contract ended in September 2022.[41] The court reportedly argued that the partial mobilization decree established an exhaustive list of grounds for release that did not include the expiration of a contract, and therefore, concluded that there were no grounds for recognizing the actions of the commanders as illegal.[42] ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin will not formally rescind the partial mobilization decree to legally justify the continued service of mobilized personnel indefinitely.

A volunteer battalion affiliated with a Russian occupation official reportedly deployed to frontline positions in Ukraine. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov claimed on February 9 that elements of Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky’s Sudaplatov volunteer battalion have deployed to frontline positions in an unspecified area of Ukraine.[43] Russian sources have previously claimed that Turkish, Swedish, and Serbian volunteers are serving in the volunteer battalion.[44] ISW continues to assess that this volunteer battalion will likely face significant command and control challenges if these claims are true.

The Kremlin continues to prioritize the development of occupied territories in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the Supervisory Board of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives on February 9 and instructed the agency to focus on the development and implementation of socio-economic development plans for occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.[45] Putin stated that Russia needs to develop the occupied territories within the current decade to foster social commitment to Russia.[46] Donetsk People’s Republic head Denis Pushilin met with Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov on February 9 to discuss a new fuel and energy complex in Donetsk Oblast.[47] The Kremlin and Russian occupation officials likely believe that rapid economic development will promote widespread pro-Russian sentiments in occupied territories.

Russian officials continue to pursue the deportation of residents and children from occupied territories through various schemes. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky stated on February 9 that Russian medical services are taking women and newborns with diseases that cannot be treated in Zaporizhia Oblast to Russia for perinatal care.[48] Balitsky also stated that Russian doctors and the Russian Ministry of Health are providing obstetric services in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.[49] Both these obstetric measures are likely meant to support ongoing Russian efforts to deport children and residents from occupied territories under the guise of medical relocation schemes.[50] Russian Agency for Strategic Initiatives member Svetlana Chupsheva stated in a meeting with Putin that the agency helped relocate dozens of residents from occupied territories to Russia under the medical relocation scheme.[51] Chupsheva also stated that the Agency for Strategic Initiatives plans to accept 5,000 children from Donetsk Oblast into a programming course that may set conditions for the relocation of these children to Russia.[52] ISW continues to assess that these schemes are likely part of a wider ethnic cleansing effort.

Russian sources claimed on February 9 that Russian authorities detained members of a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempting to assassinate the Berdyansk deputy occupation head, the Berdyansk occupation traffic police deputy head, and the Berdyansk occupation commandant.[53] Russian sources also claimed that the Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group was preparing an attack on a "We are Together with Russia" Center near Berdyansk.[54] ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin likely founded, coordinates, and promotes the "We Are Together with Russia" organization to create a facade of public support for the annexation and integration of occupied Ukrainian oblasts into Russia.[55]

Belarusian maneuver elements continue conducting exercises in Belarus. Unspecified elements of the Belarusian 6th Separate Guards Mechanized brigade conducted tactical live-fire exercises at the Gozhsky Training Ground in Grodno, Belarus, on February 9.[56] A tank battalion of the Belarusian 11th Separate Mechanized Brigade conducted live fire training with T-72 tanks at the Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in Brest, Belarus, on February 9.[57]

Belarus reportedly began a month-long training for reserve recruits on February 9. The Grey Zone Telegram channel reported on February 9 that Belarus’ reserve recruits began a one-month-long training period.[58]

[1] https://t.me/concordgroup_official/426

[2] https://t.me/concordgroup_official/427

[4] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/70482

[5] https://www.wsj.com/articles/moscow-tehran-advance-plans-for-iranian-des... ; https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/16872633 ;

[6] https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/265 ; https://www.reuters.com/world/eur...

[7] https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/europe/1000-russian-tanks-destroyed-ukrai...

[8] https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/europe/1000-russian-tanks-destroyed-ukrai...

[9] https://www.businessinsider.com/captured-documents-say-elite-russian-unit-lost-tanks-kharkiv-ukraine-2022-5; https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/getting-know-russian-battalion-tactical-group

https://www.rbc dot ru/society/09/02/2023/63e3b0f79a7947b95a3c8cfc;

https://t.me/rybar/43427;

https://t.me/milinfolive/96749;

https://t.me/rustroyka1945/8471;

https://t.me/rustroyka1945/8475;

https://t.me/rustroyka1945/8476;

https://t.me/rustroyka1945/8477;

https://t.me/rybar/43435;

https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/19454; https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/19453;

https://t.me/grey_zone/17119;

https://t.me/grey_zone/17117;

https://t.me/grey_zone/17116; https://t.me/grey_zone/17112;

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/77624

[11] https://t.me/grey_zone/17119; https://t.me/grey_zone/17117; https://t.me/grey_zone/17116; https://t.me/grey_zone/17112

[12] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[13] https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/3334; https://eng.kavkaz-uzel dot eu/articles/62013/; https://eng.kavkaz-uzel dot eu/articles/62012/

[14] https://ria dot ru/20230209/kadyrov-1850804605.html

[15] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02LGCyzg9CHrzXTN98Pj...

[16] https://t.me/rybar/43443; https://t.me/dva_majors/8915

[17] https://t.me/mod_russia/24064

[18] https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0PHvkPzQjU7XJexyyQKsrJ4...

[19] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02LGCyzg9CHrzXTN98Pj...

[20] https://t.me/wargonzo/10787

[21] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02LGCyzg9CHrzXTN98Pj...

[22] https://t.me/milchronicles/1542

[23] https://t.me/wargonzo/10787; https://t.me/readovkanews/52337

[24] https://t.me/milinfolive/96786 ; https://t.me/rlz_the_kraken/56339

[25] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02LGCyzg9CHrzXTN98Pj...

[26] https://t.me/wargonzo/10787

[27] https://t.me/nm_dnr/9867; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/77599

[28] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02LGCyzg9CHrzXTN98Pj...

[29] https://t.me/wargonzo/10787

[30] https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1623436287171776514?s=20&t=mlsf...

[31] https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1623436287171776514?s=20&t=mlsf...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1623649601717772288;

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1623532179220500480;

https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/19484;

https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1623453631629467650?s=20&t=u8lPsoZX5qq...

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1623418942025785344?s=20&t=_NUJZh...

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1623426654004469760?s=20&t=_NUJZh...

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1623598095924711425?s=20&t=_NUJZh...

https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/19484

[33] https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1623649601717772288; https://twitt...

[34] https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1623386771282075676?s=20&t=dd...

[35] https://t.me/rusichtank/94 ; https://twitter.com/3_bm15/status/1623670248699310080?s=20&t=APP4gCFnjvU... ; https://twitter.com/3_bm15/status/1623670378458411009?s=20&t=APP4gCFnjvU... ; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1623730058211778563?s=20&t=APP4g...

[36] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02LGCyzg9CHrzXTN98Pj...

[37] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02opH8aKBK88janDxszu... https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1623561968626941953?s=20&t=sp6Y-hSy... ; https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1623562915331690500?s=20&t=sp6Y-hSy... ; https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1623563711859290113?s=20&t=sp6Y-hSy... ; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/16537 ; https://t.me/skarlatop/976 ; https:...

[38] https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2427 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaf...

[39] https://t.me/grey_zone/17129

[40] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[41] https://59 dot ru /text/gorod/2023/02/07/72040580/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=messenger&utm_campaign=59

[42] https://59 dot ru /text/gorod/2023/02/07/72040580/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=messenger&utm_campaign=59

[43] https://www.politnavigator dot net/my-vse-budem-udivleny-kogda-nachnjotsya-nastuplenie-rogov.html

[44] https://isw.pub/UkrWar020223

[45] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/70482

[46] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/70482

[47] https://t.me/pushilindenis/3166

[48] https://t.me/BalitskyEV/778 ;

[49] https://t.me/BalitskyEV/778

[50] https://isw.pub/UkrWar011323

[51] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/70482

[52] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/70482

[53] https://t.me/vrogov/7593; https://t.me/vrogov/7582 ; https://t.me/rea...

[54] https://t.me/vrogov/7593 ; https://t.me/rybar/43417

[55] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[56] https://t.me/modmilby/22518

[57] https://t.me/modmilby/22515

[58] https://t.me/grey_zone/17123

Zaporizhia Battle Map Draft February 09,2023.png

Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map Draft February 09,2023.png

Donetsk Battle Map Draft February 09,2023.png

Kharkiv Battle Map Draft February 09,2023.png

DraftUkraineCoTFebruary09,2023.png