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README.md
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sdk_version: 1.21.0
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app_file: app.py
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pinned: false
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---
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# TL;DR on WTF
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- The purpose of this project is to predict whether the current day's close will be above the previous day's close (`Target`).
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- Predictions are produced through generalized stacking of an ensemble of 2 models.
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- 3 different models are currently available: At Open, 30 Mins into trading session, and 60 minutes into training session.
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- Using probabilities outside of `(0.4, 0.6]` results in `precision` in 0.7 - 0.8 range.
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- Model validated with walk forward validation.
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# Features
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- `BigNewsDay`: This feature represents whether the current day is a "big news day", eg. NFP, CPI, PPI, CPE, etc.
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- `Quarter`: The current quarter as of previous day (Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4)
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- `Perf5Day`: Whether the previous day's close is higher than it was 5 days earlier.
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- `Perf5Day_n1`: Previous value of ππ½
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- `DaysGreen`: Consecutive number of days green (close > previous close), as of the previous day.
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- `DaysRed`: Consecutive number of days red (close <= previous close), as of the previous day.
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- `CurrentGap`: The current day's gap as a percentage of the previous close, or (Open - Previous close) / Previous Close
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- `RangePct`: The previous day's range as a percent of the prior day's close.
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- `RangePct_n1`: Previous value of ππ½
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- `RangePct_n2`: Previous value of ππ½
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- `OHLC4_VIX`: The previous day's OHLC4 of VIX.
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- `OHLC4_VIX_n1`: Previous value of ππ½
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- `OHLC4_VIX_n2`: Previous value of ππ½
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