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+{"metadata":{"id":"002347b7d8f1b1e96c36b0f29215a201","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/f998d8a0-0669-4d7a-9f08-5e8d7ad27a3f/retrieve"},"pageCount":6,"title":"EXPERIENCE CAPITALIZATION -WE ARE ALL IN THE SAME BOAT","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":65,"text":"I received an invitation from CTA to attend an experience capitalization workshop in Goa, India, in April 2017. I had no idea what the workshop would involve. The facilitator, Shalini Kala, sent some pre-workshop exercises to help us introduce ourselves and the project we were working on, which was the Integrated Livelihood Support Project (ILSP), and share this information with all participants -and get started."},{"index":2,"size":100,"text":"I had been working in the field of communication and documentation for 15 years by the time I attended the workshop, and for the last 3 years, had been handling the Knowledge Management (KM) portfolio for ILSP. As in other projects and initiatives, we faced different challenges, especially when trying to capture tacit knowledge from the field; analyse data regarding our production or marketing efforts; when trying to strengthen the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system which is used to capture and disseminate learning during project implementation; or when trying to ensure the M&E and KM systems effectively support project implementation."},{"index":3,"size":168,"text":"In ILSP, managers for M&E, KM and the Monitoring Information System (MIS -the system used to capture field data), directly report to the project director. Other managers within the programme are involved in its implementation and report to the chief programme manager. After attending the first experience capitalization workshop, I was developing a case study on how village level producer groups are promoting goat production as their prime economic activity. I was going through all the MIS data and analysing it with the M&E format for the project. However, every time I sent my case to the CTA facilitator, she wrote back with more questions regarding the case. I dug deeper into the data and asked more questions to the stakeholders involved. For example, I asked the field level staff, \"Why do some villagers not join the goat groups?\" The answer to this question provided valuable insights into the culture of the village: goat rearing, for example, is a caste-based profession and not done by the upper castes."},{"index":4,"size":88,"text":"Focusing on the analysis, I was able to make a story out of the data available, showing the main challenges we faced and the results we found. And through this process, I learned that MIS, M&E and KM are all interlinked and must be better coordinated to be more effective and productive. A culture that supports experience capitalization needs to be built within the project to trigger this process. This realisation was the starting point of my journey as a practitioner and \"champion\" of the experience capitalization approach."},{"index":5,"size":78,"text":"Within development projects, the monitoring and evaluation and knowledge management systems are interlinked, and must be coordinated effectively to support project implementation. As we have seen in the Integrated Livelihood Support Project (ILSP) in Uttarakhand, India, both systems can be strengthened with experience capitalization, a process which involves the critical analysis of project experiences. Through a capitalization process, information gathered from a specific experience can be turned into institutional knowledge and utilised for improving project activities and impact."}]},{"head":"Cover \"I had a meeting with my colleagues and convinced them to work together...\" Above A training workshop for the ILSP staff, for some of its NGO partners, and for two of the project implementation agencies: Uttarakhand Gramya Vikas Samiti (UGVS), and the Project Society -Watershed Management Directorate (PS-WMD)","index":2,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Clarity and institutionalization action","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":119,"text":"Through a very interactive facilitation process with CTA, I was able to develop the first draft of my case on goat rearing. With this draft, I attended the next experience capitalization workshop in Pondicherry, India in September 2017. This time, Mrs. Shalini was accompanied by another facilitator, Pankaj Srivastav. In this workshop, the participants discussed their own individual cases and completed a peer review process that helped to improve their analyses. The feedback I received from the co-facilitator was especially helpful in improving my case. He taught me how to relate a particular field experience with the national and international development goals. He also provided me with insights of some great work and research done on livestock and goats."},{"index":2,"size":45,"text":"We discussed the need to institutionalise the experience capitalization approach to a great extent, and listed the activities that needed to be done to achieve this within our projects. I prepared an Action Plan and supportive narratives to implement it, which included specific activities to:"},{"index":3,"size":17,"text":"• orient the project director towards experience capitalization and show him the potential benefits of its institutionalization;"},{"index":4,"size":21,"text":"• orient my colleagues and show them how experience capitalization can be a better tool for achieving the project's envisaged outcomes;"},{"index":5,"size":10,"text":"• identify the resources needed to complete a capitalization process;"},{"index":6,"size":13,"text":"• identify the themes within the project for which knowledge can be capitalised;"},{"index":7,"size":8,"text":"• identify indicators to monitor the process; and"},{"index":8,"size":4,"text":"• replicate the process."},{"index":9,"size":66,"text":"As per the action plan, I met with the project director to explain the benefits of experience capitalization, and how we could adopt this participatory approach to document project learning. During this meeting, we also discussed how experience capitalization could help increase our project's impact. I briefed him that we needed to train our field staff, and develop their capacities to collect data and analyse it."},{"index":10,"size":89,"text":"I had a meeting with my colleagues to try to convince them to work together with the field level staff and capture information on different project themes, such as the development of specific value chains, marketing issues and gender sensitization. We identified staff members who could join as participants, and selected the key themes that the experience capitalization training session would cover. Our assumption was that we would be able to capture the \"real\" experiences of the project with this approach, and we planned and prepared a new workshop."},{"index":11,"size":21,"text":"In this workshop, participants discussed their own individual cases and completed a peer review process that helped to improve their analyses."},{"index":12,"size":14,"text":"Pankaj Srivastav agreed to be the recourse person for this new experience capitalization workshop."},{"index":13,"size":63,"text":"The key challenge however, was that all the workshop documents were prepared in English and the field level staff only spoke Hindi. All the formats therefore had to be translated, but this was possible with the help of the facilitator. We met a total of 32 participants in Mussoorie, Uttarakhand, between the 13th and the 17th of December 2017 (please visit: http://experience-capitalization.cta. int/a-new-initiative-in-india/)."}]},{"head":"The workshop","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":103,"text":"As I had joined a similar workshop before, and had already completed a first article, I co-facilitated this new process. Participants identified 12 themes, and we developed 30 different case studies. Taking part in the experience capitalization workshop allowed field-level staff, for the first time, to play an active role in the analysis of the activities they are all involved in. As one of the participants commented, \"This was the first time we have been involved in the process of experience capitalization. It allowed us to 'observe' the project and analyse the data we have generated during last four years of project's implementation.''"},{"index":2,"size":85,"text":"Organising this initial workshop was the first step towards institutionalization. But we also held a separate session with 12 senior staff members of the project to enhance their capacity to become experience capitalization \"champions\". The objective of this session was to help these staff members facilitate experience capitalization processes in future, and become focal points for its institutionalization. In ILSP there are two project implementation agencies, and it was the first time that officials representing these two organisations had come together to share their experiences."},{"index":3,"size":93,"text":"I led the process for getting approval from the senior management, engaging the project team and instituting a process for selecting suitable and interested staff to train. I was also responsible for identifying the capitalization themes, formulating a communication plan for experience capitalization, identifying appropriate technical support, and I was also in charge of other tasks related to the organisation of workshops, including budgets and other resources. Unfortunately, and due to personal reasons, I left this position in April 2018. The last three points of the action plan were implemented by my successor."}]},{"head":"Reflection","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":48,"text":"One of the key lessons I've drawn from this experience is that if we capture knowledge and information from the field in a systematic way -as this methodology teaches us -we can see that in development projects all staff members are equally responsible for their implementation and results."},{"index":2,"size":40,"text":"The efforts of all those working at all levels can be translated into institutional knowledge and utilised for improving project activities and impact. This knowledge can also be adopted by other organisations implementing projects with similar activities and envisaged results."},{"index":3,"size":82,"text":"The 30 case studies produced in the initial workshop were presented to the IFAD review mission in September 2017, along with a report with the main observations made during the two experience capitalization workshops. As the final report mentioned, \"this was found to be very helpful and we now propose to organise two experience capitalization workshops in the state. It would be useful to prepare grassroots level case studies by local staff. The project implementing agencies should consider planning these workshops together.\""},{"index":4,"size":17,"text":"Below The adoption of experience capitalization requires teams to make it part of the project implementation processes"},{"index":5,"size":31,"text":"Last, and in terms of sustainability, it is important that a team identifies who will be the experience capitalization \"champions\", covering the different districts or regions where a project is implemented."}]},{"head":"Final remarks","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":17,"text":"As rightly said by Anton Chekhov, \"Knowledge is of no value unless you put it into practice.\""},{"index":2,"size":56,"text":"It is time to put the experience capitalization knowledge into practice. I have started the process of institutionalising the experience capitalization approach in the new projects where I work, and helping other organisations to do the same. I believe that experience capitalization will become recognised world-over as a ground-breaking methodology within the KM and M&E domain."},{"index":3,"size":32,"text":"Anil Maikhuri led the knowledge management department at the Integrated Livelihood Support Project in Uttarakhand, India. Presently, he works at the EKAM Foundation, an NGO within the community health sector. E-mail: [email protected] "}]}],"figures":[{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":" This is one of the results of the process started by the \"Capitalization of Experiences for Greater Impact in Rural Development\" project, implemented by CTA, FAO and IICA and supported by IFAD.  "}],"sieverID":"7e55d757-3a32-459d-b6d9-720face480c1","abstract":""}

data/part_2/002604c6f8fca8dd67234b77df558247.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"002604c6f8fca8dd67234b77df558247","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://publications.iwmi.org/pdf/H042505.pdf"},"pageCount":15,"title":"Simulation of Water Resource Development and Environmental Flows in the Lake Tana Subbasin","keywords":["Ethiopia","Lake Tana","water level","lake surface area","water resources development","modeling","and water demand"],"chapters":[{"head":"Introduction","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":115,"text":"The Tana-Beles area has been identified as an economic ‗growth corridor' by the government of Ethiopia and the World Bank. The intention is to stimulate economic growth and reduce poverty through the development of hydropower and a number of irrigation schemes (MoFED 2006). However, the likely environmental implications of these developments and specifically the impact on lake water-levels have not been fully evaluated. An evaluation is crucial because the lake is important to the livelihoods of many people in a number of different ways including domestic water supply, fisheries, grazing and water for livestock, as well as reeds for boat construction. In addition, the lake is important for water transport and as a tourist destination."},{"index":2,"size":19,"text":"Simulation of Water Resource Development and Environmental Flows in the Lake Tana Subbasin CP 19 Project Workshop Proceedings 24"},{"index":3,"size":26,"text":"This paper describes the use of the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model to investigate scenarios of future water resource development in the Lake Tana catchment."},{"index":4,"size":53,"text":"The model was used to investigate both the reliability of water availability for the planned schemes and their impact on lake water levels and consequently, lake surface area. For each scenario, the implications of maintaining environmental flows downstream of the lake to the Tis Issat Falls (a major tourist attraction) were also ascertained."},{"index":5,"size":49,"text":"The Lake Tana subbasin Lake Tana occupies a shallow depression (mean depth 9 m and maximum depth 14 m) in Ethiopian plateau located at an altitude of 1786 masl (Figure 1). It is the largest freshwater lake in Ethiopia with catchment area of 15,321 km 2 at its outlet. "}]},{"head":"Natural characteristics","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":61,"text":"The climate of Lake Tana region is ‗tropical highland monsoon' with a single rainy season between June and September. The mean annual rainfall over the catchment is 1,326 mm, with slightly more rain falling in the south and south-east than in the north of the catchment (SMEC 2008). Average annual evaporation over the lake surface is approximately 1,675 mm (SMEC 2008)."},{"index":2,"size":19,"text":"Simulation of Water Resource Development and Environmental Flows in the Lake Tana Subbasin CP 19 Project Workshop Proceedings 25"},{"index":3,"size":143,"text":"Although the lake is fed by more than 40 rivers and streams, 93% of the water comes from just four major rivers: Gilgel Abbay, Ribb, Gumara and Megech (Fig. 1). A recent study on the lake's hydrology estimated the mean annual inflow to the lake to be 158 m 3 s -1 (i.e. 4,986 Mm 3 y -1 ). Moreover, the mean annual outflow is estimated to be 119 m 3 s -1 (i.e. 3,753 Mm 3 y -1 ) (SMEC 2008). Under natural conditions, discharge from the lake is closely linked to rainfall and there is considerable seasonal and inter-annual variability (Kebede et al. 2006). Naturally, the annual water level fluctuations varied between 1785.75 and 1786.36 masl. Analyses of mean annual water levels reveals longer wet and dry cycles of approximately 6-7 years, during which mean annual water-levels rise and fall respectively."},{"index":4,"size":174,"text":"The Dembiya, Fogera and Kunzila plains form extensive wetlands in the north, east and southwest, respectively of the lake during the rainy season. As a result of the high heterogeneity in habitats, the lake and surrounding riparian areas support high biodiversity and are listed in the top 250 lake regions of global importance for biodiversity. About a quarter of the 65 fish species found in the lake are endemic. The lake contains eighteen species of barbus fish (i.e. of the Cyprinidae family) and the only extended cyprinid species flock in Africa (Eshete 2003). A three day survey in March 1996 indentified 217 bird species and the lake is estimated to hold a minimum of 20,000 water birds (EWLNHS 1996). In some places, close to the lake shore there is extensive growth of papyrus (Cyprus papyrus). The littoral zone (depth 0-4 m) of the lake, which comprises water-logged swamps, the shallow lake margins and the mouths of rivers feeding the lake, is relatively small, covering about 10 % of the total surface area (Eshete 2003)."}]},{"head":"Current socio-economic situation","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":87,"text":"The total population in the lake catchment was estimated to be in excess of 3 million in 2007 (CSA 2003). The largest city on the lake shore, Bahir Dar, has a population of over 200,000 and at least 15,000 people are believed to live on the 37 islands in the lake. The majority of the population lives in rural areas and their livelihoods are mainly dependent on rainfed agriculture. Recession cropping, mainly for maize and rice, is carried out in the wetlands adjacent to the lake shore."},{"index":2,"size":52,"text":"Lake Tana is an important source of fish both for the people immediately around the lake and elsewhere in the country. Though the current fish production of Lake Tana is only about 1,000 tons per year, the potential for production is estimated to be 13,000 tons per annum (Berhanu et al. 2001)."},{"index":3,"size":47,"text":"The Lake Tana region is endowed with historical cultural and natural heritages which have high tourist attractions. Consequently, the area is an important tourist destination in the country. It is estimated that close to 30,000 people (both domestic and foreign) visit the area each year (EPLAUA 2006)."},{"index":4,"size":48,"text":"Outflow from Lake Tana is regulated by the Chara Chara weir. This was constructed in Prior to construction of the weir, the Tis Abbay I power station (capacity 11.4 MW) relied entirely on diversion of the natural flow of the river immediately upstream of the Tis Issat Falls."},{"index":5,"size":180,"text":"The Chara Chara weir regulates water storage in Lake Tana over a 3 m range of water levels from 1784 masl to 1787 masl. The active storage of the lake between these levels is about 9,100 Mm 3 , which represents approximately 2.4 times the average annual outflow. The regulation for power production has modified the natural lake-level regime, resulting in reduced seasonal but greater inter-annual variability (Fig. 2). The lowest level ever recorded was in June, 2003. This was a drought year in much of Ethiopia and hydropower production was constrained in many places. In an attempt to maintain electricity supplies production at Tis Abay was maximized and as result lake levels declined sharply (Gebre et al. 2007). As a consequence of the low lake levels in 2003, navigation ceased for approximately four months (i.e. when lake levels dropped below 1785 masl, the minimum level at which ships can currently operate), large areas of papyrus reed were destroyed, there was significant encroachment of agriculture on the exposed lake bed and there was a decrease in fisheries production (EPLAUA 2004). "}]},{"head":"Planned irrigation and hydropower schemes","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":169,"text":"These days, Lake Tana region is at the centre of Ethiopia's plans for water resource development owing to its huge water resource potential. Consequently, a number of schemes are under development and planned for the future (Fig. 1). Construction of the Tana-Beles project is close to completion (August 2009). This scheme involves the transfer of water from Lake Tana to the Beles River via a 12 km long, 7.1 m diameter tunnel (Salini and Mid-day 2006). The aim of the inter-basin transfer is to generate hydropower by exploiting the 311 m elevation difference between the lake and the Beles River. A power station, with generating capacity of 460MW, is being built on the upper Beles River. This will enable far more electricity to be generated than is currently produced in the Tis Abbay power stations. Approximately 2,985 Mm 3 will be diverted through the tunnel each year to generate 2,310 GWh of electricity (SMEC 2008). Both the Tis Abbay power stations will be moth-balled and only used in emergencies."},{"index":2,"size":116,"text":"As well as the hydropower development, a number of irrigation schemes (up to approximately 60,000 ha) are planned on the main rivers flowing into Lake Tana (Table 2). Of these only the Koga irrigation project (6,000 ha) is currently under construction. However, for several of the other schemes detailed feasibility studies have been undertaken and planning is at an advanced stage. It is anticipated that construction of several of the dams and irrigation schemes will commence in the near future.  1998;Mott MacDonald 2004;WWDSE and ICT 2008;WWDSE and TAHAL 2008a, b) Note: + demands estimated though crop water modeling and presented in feasibility study reports. Where a range of demands is presented this reflects alternative cropping patterns."}]},{"head":"Methodology","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":67,"text":"To simulate the future water demand in Lake Tana region along with the environmental flows the water allocation component of WEAP model was used. WEAP was developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) in Boston and provides an integrated approach to simulating water systems associated with development (SEI, 2007). A detailed description of the model can be found in SEI ( 2007) and Yates et al. (2005)."}]},{"head":"WEAP configuration to the Lake Tana sub-basin","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":211,"text":"The modeling of the Lake Tana catchment with WEAP encompassed the major tributaries to the lake, upstream of the proposed dams (i.e. flows that will be affected by the future construction of dams), estimates of flows downstream of the proposed dams and total inflows on other rivers (i.e. flows that will be unaffected by the future development) as well as Lake Tana itself. Lake Tana was simulated as a reservoir (Fig. 3). In addition, because environmental flow requirements downstream of the Chara Chara weir are influenced by flows in the unregulated Andassa River (catchment area 683 km 2 ), which joins it approximately 17 km downstream of the weir, flows in this river were also incorporated in the model. The model was configured to run on a monthly-time step. As primary input to WEAP, the inflow series at the planned dam sites were obtained from the relevant feasibility studies for the period 1960-2004. Where necessary, inflow data were augmented using area-weighted estimates from the nearest available flow gauging station. To simulate the current situation, the Tis Abbay hydropower plants were included as a demand node on the Abbay River, downstream of the lake. To estimate the diversions to the power stations the turbine discharge data from 1964-2006 were obtained from EEPCO."},{"index":2,"size":59,"text":"Each development scenario was run for the 36 years (i.e. 1960-1995). This period was selected both because data are available and it represents a wide range of hydrological variability. Furthermore, it represents years before construction of the Chara Chara weir and so the impact of each development scenario could be compared with the natural water-level regime of the lake.  "}]},{"head":"Rivers","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":96,"text":"The data underpinning the various scenarios were obtained mainly from the Abbay River Basin Integrated Development Mater Plan and the feasibility studies conducted for each of the planned schemes. These indicate how the water demand for both irrigation and hydropower is likely to change in the catchment in the future. Four scenarios were developed based on the current stage of scheme development and hence the likelihood of full implementation (Table 3). Water demands for the irrigation schemes were entered into WEAP as monthly time series of net demands (i.e. gross demand minus the estimated return flows)."},{"index":2,"size":110,"text":"For the proposed new dams no operating rule curves are currently available. Consequently, no operating rules were incorporated within the WEAP model. This meant that the reservoirs were not drawn down to attenuate wet season floods and no restrictions were applied on abstractions as the reservoirs emptied. The one exception was Lake Tana itself where the operating rule was derived from the calibration process. In this case parameters were set using the pattern of operation in recent years. Thus, restrictions on draw-down were applied to reduce abstractions as lake levels dropped below 1786 masl and to ensure levels did not drop lower than the current physical minimum of 1784 masl."},{"index":3,"size":111,"text":"Since it provides the highest economic returns hydropower production was designated a higher priority than irrigation. With the exception of the water demand for the city of Gondar, which in future will be abstracted from the Megech River, the water demand for domestic, municipal and industrial use, were not considered. This is because their impact on the water resources of the lake, both now and in the future, is insignificant (SMEC 2008). For each scenario the WEAP model was used to predict: i) the impacts on both lake water-levels and lake area for each month over the 36 years simulated and ii) the unmet demand for hydropower and each irrigation scheme. "}]},{"head":"Tana","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":36,"text":"Beles transfer Koga, Megech, Ribb, Gumara, Gilgel Abbay and 3 schemes pumping directly from the lake 3,768 Note: + water demand has been calculated using the highest crop water estimates for each of the irrigation schemes."},{"index":2,"size":101,"text":"An environmental impact assessment was conducted for the Tana Beles transfer scheme. To maintain the ecosystem of the upper reaches of the Abbay River this recommends an average annual release from Chara Chara of 17 m 3 s -1 (536 Mm 3 ) with an absolute minimum of 10 m 3 s -1 (Salini and Mid-day 2006). This environmental flow requirement, hereafter referred to as the minimum maintenance flow (MMF), was included in all the scenarios. Moreover, the proposed minimum instream flows downstream of each of the proposed dams (as identified in the feasibility studies) were also included in each scenario."},{"index":3,"size":131,"text":"Recently, a more detailed evaluation of the environmental flow requirements needed to maintain the ecosystem of the Tis Issat Falls has been conducted (McCartney et al. 2008). This study allowed for the natural seasonal and inter-annual variability of flow and estimated environmental flow requirements on a monthly time-step for the period 1960-2004. The study found that to maintain the basic ecological functioning of the reach containing the Falls, variable flows are necessary, with an average annual allocation of 864 Mm 3 (i.e. 64% more than previously estimated) (McCartney et al. 2008). To ascertain the effect of the variable environmental flow (VEF) requirement, over and above the minimum maintenance flow, each scenario was run again with the variable environmental flow included. All environmental flows were given higher priority than the hydropower production."}]},{"head":"Results","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":140,"text":"Figure 4 presents a comparison of the time series of simulated lake levels for all scenarios with the natural condition, both with the downstream MMF and the VEF included. Table 4 summarizes the results of each scenario both with the MMF and VEF. The results indicate the decline in mean annual lake levels, and consequently lake area, as the water resource development in the catchment increases. This is manifested particularly by the increasing periods of time when lake levels are below 1785 masl, the minimum required for ships to navigate on the lake. Even without the VEF releases, in the full potential development scenario, water-levels exceed 1785 masl just 78.0% of the time (Table 4) and in some years hardly exceed this level in any months (Fig. 4d). This would have a very significant impact on shipping in the lake."},{"index":2,"size":67,"text":"As would be expected, the greatest impact of the water resource development occurs during dry cycles in particular years 8-14 and most significantly from years 20-28 of the simulation. During these periods, even without variable environmental flow releases, lake water levels are, depending on the development scenario, up to 0.82 m and 1.76 m lower than natural levels in the dry and wet season, respectively (Fig. 4)."},{"index":3,"size":204,"text":"The VEF requirements exacerbate the drop in lake water-levels in all scenarios. For the full development scenario the water level exceeds 1785 masl just 60% of the time and the mean lake area is reduced from 3,080 km 2 to 3,023 km 2 (Table 4). Furthermore, the amount of power produced and the amount of water diverted to irrigation are reduced by between 1% and 3% for hydropower and 2% to 5% for irrigation, depending on the scenario. Table 5 presents the average annual shortfall (as a percentage of the annual demand) for both irrigation and hydropower in each of the scenarios with both the MMF and the VEF. As would be expected, shortfalls occur mainly in dry years. In the model hydropower was given higher priority than irrigation, so shortfalls in hydropower production are less than in irrigation. Nevertheless, shortfalls in hydropower significantly increase as the irrigation development in the basin increases. Hence, even without allowing for the VEF average annual hydropower production declines from 2,247.0 GWh to 2,207.1 GWh and 2197.1 GWh if all the planned and all the possible irrigation schemes are developed respectively (Table 4). If the VEF is included unmet hydropower and irrigation demands both increase significantly (Table 5)."}]},{"head":"Simulation of Water","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":19,"text":"Table 5: Unmet demands for irrigation and hydropower in each scenario with minimum maintenance flow and variable environmental flows"}]},{"head":"Discussion and conclusion","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":117,"text":"The analyses conducted in this study quantify some of the possible impacts arising from future development of the water resources of the Lake Tana catchment. The modeling results indicate that the water level of Lake Tana will be influenced by upstream development on the inflowing rivers, the diversion to the Beles catchment and the release of flow downstream of the Chara Chara weir. As would be expected, the effects on lake levels will be more pronounced during dry periods. In the past, the water level of the lake was controlled more by rainfall variation than by human activities (Kebede et al. 2006). In future, as a result of infrastructure development, anthropogenic activities will be the major control."},{"index":2,"size":53,"text":"A recent assessment of Lake Tana and its associated wetlands identified a number of human induced ecological threats, including siltation, over fishing, recession agriculture and water level disturbance due to water withdrawals (EPLAUA 2006). In the absence of careful management all these threats are likely to be aggravated by the planned future development."},{"index":3,"size":152,"text":"Approximately 3,400 Mm 3 y -1 of water will be diverted for hydropower and irrigation schemes if the likely future development scenario in the Lake Tana sub-basin is implemented. Consequently, the mean annual water level will be lowered by 0.33 m and there will be prolonged periods, of several years, during which water levels will be much lower than they would be naturally. Due to this the average surface area of the lake will decrease by 23 km 2 (i.e. 2,300 ha). This is likely to have significant impacts on the ecology of the lake, particularly the littoral zone and in the wetlands around the shoreline. The desiccation of currently wet areas will certainly cause the loss of aquatic vegetation, including papyrus reeds. As a result the breeding habitat for aquatic fauna, including fish is likely to be reduced. This could have a significant impact on the productivity of the lake fisheries."},{"index":4,"size":58,"text":"In 2003, farmers extended crop production onto about 562 ha of Lake Tana bed following the lower levels (EPLAUA 2004). This indicates that lower water levels will almost certainly result in people moving both cultivation and grazing onto the dried lake bed. This would exacerbate adverse impacts on near-shore vegetation and could greatly increase sedimentation in the lake."},{"index":5,"size":98,"text":"Lower water-levels, particularly in the dry season, will have a negative impact not only on the ecology of the lake but on navigation. As a consequence of lower water levels in 2003, Lake Tana Transport Enterprise lost about 4 million Ethiopian birr (i.e. approximately US$ 400,000) because the ships could not sail (Dagne, personal communication). Due to the fact that the livelihoods of many people are dependent on shipping, strategies need to be developed to mitigate these impacts. These could include modification of ports as well as the ships themselves to enable them to operate at lower water-levels."},{"index":6,"size":65,"text":"The WEAP simulations show the water availability for both irrigation and hydropower in each scenario. The results indicate that as demands rise in future, shortfalls in water supply will increase during dry periods. Very careful consideration needs to be given to the economic implications of reduced reliability of supply particularly for hydropower production in the Beles, resulting from increasing irrigation in the Lake Tana catchment."},{"index":7,"size":154,"text":"In this study consideration was given only to the possible changes arising from future water resource development in the Lake Tana catchment. However, the water resources of the Lake Tana catchment are highly vulnerable to changes in rainfall and temperature. In a study of possible impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Gilgel Abbay River, it was estimated that by 2080 mean annual runoff into the lake could be reduced by approximately 3% with much greater reduction in some years (Shaka 2008). However, this estimate makes no allowance for increased irrigation demand as a consequence of lower rainfall and higher temperatures. It is also probable that climate change will affect the temporal distribution of runoff (Deksyos and Abebe, 2006;Shaka, 2008) and this could also affect both water availability and irrigation demand. Hence, much more detailed studies of the possible impacts of climate change, including economic and livelihood implications, need to be undertaken."},{"index":8,"size":165,"text":"The simulation results indicate that the allowance for VEF over the Tis Issat Falls reduces the availability of water for both hydropower and irrigation and causes increased drawdown of the lake. In the full development scenario the VEF reduce the average lake levels by an additional 0.37 m and the average surface area of the lake by an additional 26 km 2 (i.e. 2,600 ha). This is over and above the reductions resulting from the MMF and will almost certainly further exacerbate the adverse environmental and social impacts arising from drawdown of the lake. Therefore, a potential trade-off exists between the lake ecosystem and the ecosystem of the upper Abbay River and the Falls. Since the livelihoods and well being of many people are directly dependent on the ecological character of both ecosystems, very careful consideration needs to be given to determining how the water is best utilized. This requires much more detailed analyses of both the environmental and social consequences of water allocation patterns."},{"index":9,"size":13,"text":"Simulation of Water Resource Development and Environmental Flows in the Lake Tana Subbasin"}]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 1 : Figure 1: Location map of Lake Tana catchment showing catchment area, major inflowing rivers and planned irrigation and hydropower sites as well as Bahir Dar and Gondar towns (inset map shows location in Ethiopia) "},{"text":"Figure 2 : Figure 2: Water level fluctuations of Lake Tana before and after regulation (Source: plotted using data provided by the Ministry of Water Resources) "},{"text":"Figure 3 : Figure 3: Schematic of existing and planned development schemes in the Lake Tana subbasin as simulated in WEAP "},{"text":"Table 2 : Planned irrigation development in the Lake Tana catchment (source: BCEOM  "},{"text":"Table 3 : Summary of development scenarios (Source: BCEOM 1998; EEPCO database and SMEC 2008) Scenario Scenario  "},{"text":"Hydropower developed Irrigation schemes developed Total mean annual water demand (Mm 3 ) +  Baseline (BS) Tis Abbay I and - 3,469 Baseline (BS)Tis Abbay I and-3,469  II    II Ongoing development (ODS) Tana Beles Koga 3,047 Ongoing development (ODS)TanaBelesKoga3,047  transfer    transfer Likely future development Tana Beles Koga, Megech, Ribb, 3,621 Likely future developmentTanaBelesKoga, Megech, Ribb,3,621 (LDS) transfer  Gumara and Gilgel Abbay  (LDS)transferGumara and Gilgel Abbay Full potential development     Full potential development (FDS)     (FDS)  "},{"text":"Table 4 : Resource Development and Environmental Flows in the Lake Tana Subbasin Figure4: Comparison of simulated and natural (observed) lake levels over 36 years with, for each scenario, MMF and VEF. Scenarios are: 4a) baseline scenario (BS), 4b) ongoing development scenario (ODS), 4c) likely future development scenario (LDS) and 4d) full potential development scenario (FDS). Summary of simulation results for each scenario with minimum maintenance flow and variable environmental flows Note: + 1785 masl is the minimum level required for shipping * hydropower produced by Tis Abay I power station by diverting unregulated flow ++ increase in average lake water level and lake area occurred as a consequence of regulation which slightly increased dry season water level and area CP 19 Project Workshop Proceedings CP 19 Project Workshop Proceedings  "}],"sieverID":"125728fe-5f2f-4376-b91e-f6f79c8e4c46","abstract":"Lake Tana is a natural reservoir for the Blue Nile River which has huge potential for hydropower and irrigation development. Water resource development is being encouraged by the government to stimulate economic growth and reduce poverty. In this study, the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was used to simulate planned hydropower and irrigation development scenarios. Simulation of water demand and estimated downstream environmental flows was conducted for a 36-year period of varying flow and rainfall. Based on the simulation results, water availability for the different proposed irrigation and hydropower schemes was determined. The likely impact of future water resource development on water levels of the lake was assessed based on the simulation results of three development scenarios. The simulation results revealed that, if the full future development occurs, on average, 2,207 GWhy -1 of power could be generated and 548 Mm 3 y -1 of water could be supplied to irrigation schemes. However, the mean annual water level of the lake would be lowered by 0.33 meters (m) with a consequent decrease of 23 km 2 in the average surface area of the lake. Besides having adverse ecological impacts, this would also have significant implications for shipping and the livelihoods of many local people."}

data/part_2/00bd356ec59fd63ee179351879fd240c.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"00bd356ec59fd63ee179351879fd240c","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/2752d373-d19b-4cee-a224-126399afebc0/retrieve"},"pageCount":1,"title":"A Crowdsourcing Approach to Detect Farmers' Preferences: Evidences from Ethiopia for Adapting to Climate Change","keywords":["Climate change","crowdsourcing","durum wheat","Ethiopia","farmers' participatory selection"],"chapters":[],"figures":[],"sieverID":"4b85857d-e4b4-442e-bba5-78bb0e0ed859","abstract":"Climate change is severely affecting production systems all over Africa. Ethiopia will face an increase in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns. One solution for long term management of climate related risks is to introduce new traits into production systems.We present an approach to quickly deliver to farmers a selected number of preferred accessions of durum wheat using a crowdsourcing approach. After having completed a phenotypic and genotypic characterisation of 400 accessions of Ethiopian landraces and asked farmers to evaluate them, we distributed seeds of preferred varieties to a large number of farmers using a crowdsourcing approach.In two sites representing different agroecological zones, we distributed 20 superior varieties and one check, an improved variety very common in both areas to 200 farmers in 12 villages per site, covering an area of roughly 350 km 2 . We repeated the experiment for 2 years. Each farmer was given 3 blind varieties and the check, each variety being equally represented in the sample. In addition, in each village we included 2 i-buttons, measuring temperature and humidity every 3 hours throughout the growing season. This allowed to analyse the data on critical climatic parameters.Results clearly indicate farmers' preferences: a) Landraces were preferred over improved varieties for their multiple uses; b) By considering farmers as citizen scientists, we have a better understanding of the criteria farmers use to select their preferred varieties (in our case straw and grain yield, drought tolerance, uniformity, long and dense spikes).In conclusion:• This process has been very effective in quickly disseminating seeds that match farmers' needs. After 2 years several hundred farmers can use better adapted material.• It shows the potential of landraces to provide immediate option for managing climate related risks and calls for broader use of material conserved in gene banks.• It indicates the need to strengthen local seed systems to better manage these resources.• It indicates how farmers can provide very valuable scientific information that can be translated into research as well as development potential in other areas of research."}

data/part_2/010cdc9c6beb1e71b5ed0b1ee13854a0.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"010cdc9c6beb1e71b5ed0b1ee13854a0","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/b843a16b-c9fa-4dc6-a618-204222141b9b/retrieve"},"pageCount":1,"title":"Crop Livestock integration Project Improved productivity through crop-livestock interventions in South Kivu, Eastern","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":16,"text":"This poster is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence, May 2016"},{"index":2,"size":119,"text":"The project is based on a \"Theory of change\" (Figure 1) which sets out causal links between research outputs and the subsequent chain of outcomes leading to the desired impact. The overall \"Theory of change (ToC)\" for the CLiP project predicts that an increase in farm productivity through work that positively benefits from several enabling environments, including increased productivity (through sustainable intensification) and value chain integration. Increased productivity will increase the quantity and profitability of farm products sold, which in turn will lead to increased income. With more equitable distribution of the benefits of farm production, improved diet quality for nutritionally vulnerable individuals is achieved, particularly for women and children, through increased consumption of diverse and nutritionally rich foods."},{"index":3,"size":16,"text":"The assumptions of the ToC will be confirmed through a series of R4D activities among which:"},{"index":4,"size":14,"text":"• Impact of improved crop-livestock systems on gender livelihood and nutritional status of households;"},{"index":5,"size":9,"text":"•Best use of crop residues: ISFM or animal feeding?;"},{"index":6,"size":18,"text":"•Identification of endemic livestock diseases in South Kivu and their consequences and financial repercussions on livestock development ;"},{"index":7,"size":6,"text":"•Aflatoxin contamination in food and feeds;"},{"index":8,"size":29,"text":"•Effects of training approaches on agency and empowerment, the potential influence on intrahousehold and community level decision making; •Crop-livestock integration and its impact on sustainable job creation for youth."},{"index":9,"size":22,"text":"Project Target: 800 farming households in two distinct sites in the South Kivu province, namely Miti (highland zone) and Kamanyola (Rusizi plain) "}]}],"figures":[],"sieverID":"f3c36968-5cc8-4be6-abfe-28b7672a2667","abstract":""}

data/part_2/01490566711ff7e86474894dc23e5acf.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"01490566711ff7e86474894dc23e5acf","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/4237eb8a-5f33-4d4e-93dd-08273bc9399b/retrieve"},"pageCount":3,"title":"SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION OF KEY FARMING SYSTEMS IN THE SUDANO-SAHELIAN ZONE","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Introduction","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":42,"text":"As part of the U.S. government's Feed the Future initiative to address global hunger and food security issues in sub-Saharan Africa, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) is supporting multi-stakeholder agricultural research projects to sustainably intensify Activities October to December 2011"}]},{"head":"Project planning meeting","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":30,"text":"A project planning meeting was held from 6 to 7 October 2011 at ICRISAT Regional Office at Samanko, Bamako, Mali in preparation for a project inception workshop in early 2012."},{"index":2,"size":23,"text":"The 22 participants represented USAID/BFS/ARP, USAID/Bamako, the CGIAR Centers ILRI, ICRISAT, CIAT, ICRAF, and IITA, as well as the World Vegetable Center (AVRDC)."},{"index":3,"size":60,"text":"The meeting was called by USAID to bring together scientists conducting critical research in the Sudano Sahelian zone of West Africa, the target region for this regional project. The discussions of the meeting were expected to provide the basis for the development of concept notes in which regional research and development project plans and objectives would be more fully described."},{"index":4,"size":37,"text":"The deliberations focused on the tentative action sites of the project in Ghana and Mali. As key farming systems were identified: irrigated maize-based systems, and rainfed maizelegume systems in northern Ghana and sorghum/millet-based systems in southern Mali."},{"index":5,"size":18,"text":"Relevant researchable issues and constraints were discussed and it was recommended to address them in the Concept Note."},{"index":6,"size":45,"text":"Next steps in terms of developing the Concept Note and preparation of the project inception meeting were decided. The date for the inception workshop was fixed for 9-12 January 2012 in Tamale, Ghana, and IITA was charged with the organization in close collaboration with USAID/BFS/ARP."}]},{"head":"Concept note development","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":62,"text":"Following the planning workshop in Bamako, a core team under the leadership of the Project Coordinator prepared the concept note in a collaborative effort. It was shared with USAID in December for feedback and distributed to the invitees of the inception workshop where it would be discussed. Members of the writing team were from ICRISAT, ICRAF, ILRI, IWMI, IFPRI, AVRDC, and IITA."},{"index":2,"size":97,"text":"While writing the concept note, the team followed the outline that had been prepared by the project coordinator and USAID. The exact action sites for the research were not specified as it was planned that these would be identified in a special exercise with the support of scientists from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) during the forthcoming workshop. A detailed project budget and annual workplan were also not prepared at this stage because this needed consultation with other non-CGIAR partners who would be part of the project implementation team and identified during the design workshop."}]},{"head":"Organization of project design/inception workshop","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":79,"text":"Parallel to the development of the concept note, the Project Coordinator collaborated closely with USAID to identify key participants for the project design workshop. Agreement on the workshop agenda has also been achieved. All participants were invited on time and provided with logistical information. USAID wished to hold the meeting in Tamale, Northern Region of Ghana, where key national partner organizations are located. Northern Region is also one of the geographical areas on which the project activities will focus."},{"index":2,"size":121,"text":"Unfortunately, there is only one venue in Tamale that can accommodate the large number of workshop participants. By end of December, 60 participants had confirmed participation for days 1 and 2, and 35 for the entire workshop. Logistically, Tamale resulted to be challenging. Most participants had to be flown in from the capital, where many had to spend a night before continuing to Tamale. This was aggravated by the fact that all afternoon flights to Tamale were cancelled at short notice and tickets for the domestic flights could not be purchased by the participants living abroad. Difficulties in organizing the meeting in Tamale also arose from the late confirmation of participation by the invitees and passing on arrival details in Accra."},{"index":3,"size":60,"text":"The Head of ILRI's Communication Unit in Addis Ababa could be contracted as facilitator of the meeting. He will also be facilitating the other two regional sister workshops thus bringing consistency into the three meetings, taking advantage from the Ghana meeting to improve workshop process for the next meetings and reducing time needed for introduction and briefing before each workshop."},{"index":4,"size":18,"text":"The next quarterly report will provide details about the workshop, outputs and outcomes, as well as next steps."}]}],"figures":[],"sieverID":"72e95397-3204-457c-98cd-182a9c909cc8","abstract":"African farming systems and as a way of bringing a regional focus to the CGIAR Research Programs (CRPs) on Integrated Systems, especially CRPs 1.1 and 1.2. The International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) is the lead institute for developing and implementing the Sudano-Sahelian zone project. This research project focuses primarily on maize-and rice-based production systems in northern Ghana and sorghum-based production systems in southern Mali but is intended to result in spill-over effects to other similar agro-ecological zones. These two regions were chosen based on analysis of cropping systems, prevailing poverty, population levels, existing country development priorities, and the given potential for successfully improving agricultural productivity and hence livelihoods of the people. The development of these regions will be based around research in best management practices for sustainable intensification of agricultural production. This requires well-coordinated efforts involving multiple donors, regional organizations, partner universities, the private sector, national and international agricultural research institutes, and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). The regional research approach will also provide the foundation for scaling up and out technologies through broad partnerships and links to country-based Feed the Future programs.The Project started in October 2011 when funds were transferred to IITA."}

data/part_2/016d5e57529606710023a5c240edac0b.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"016d5e57529606710023a5c240edac0b","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/5abedbbc-4ea0-45ab-b8bc-6926907af0f8/retrieve"},"pageCount":3,"title":"REPORTING 2022 EVIDENCES OUTCOME IMPACT CASE REPORT Study #4653 Stage of Maturity of change reported: stage 2 PART 1: Description and all information of the outcome/impact reported TYPE OICR: Outcome Impact Case Report","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":70,"text":"Seed of change -Journey with ethnic minority communities in Northwest Vietnam video. Improving nutrition -access to seed and school means for ethnic minorities in Vietnam and Laos, August 3, 2021. NWO website. NL-CGIAR Conference, 2-3 November 2022. Factsheet. Promoting consumption of diverse foods for health and nutrition and ways to improve vegetable production, seed selection and storage Poster. H'mong mustard seed production calendar. Poster. French bean seed production calendar. Poster."}]},{"head":"PROMOTIONAL PRODUCTS CGIAR INNOVATION(S) OR FINDINGS THAT HAVE RESULTED IN THIS OUTCOME OR IMPACT","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":147,"text":"Results from a seed system characterization study that elaborated the strengths, opportunities, and challenges in the vegetable seed systems, and vegetable availability and utilization among ethnic minority farmers in Northern Vietnam were used to identify on-farm management and value chain innovations most suited to the target sites, in consultation with local partners [1]. Value chain arrangements through ethnic minority farmer groups producing quality seeds for selected markets, and/or improving vegetable production and sales through improved access to quality seed/planting material were tested. This included capacity building supported by learning visits and produced extension materials, and regular updates and exchanges with local authorities and local stakeholders. As well as establishment of a network of actors directly participating in the chain (farmer groups, local buyers, seed companies) and those supporting the actors (local authorities, local extension workers, etc.) towards the development of value chains for vegetables and quality seeds."}]},{"head":"ELABORATION OF OUTCOME/IMPACT STATEMENT","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":312,"text":"A study of the vegetable seed systems among H'mong, Thai and Dao ethnic groups in the North of Vietnam [1-6] identified hurdles faced by minority farmers. These included access to market information and capacity to evaluate and determine market needs and how the farmers/groups can tap into the market; and agency (knowledge, confidence, capacity) to engage other actors (extension, input suppliers, buyers, etc.). Over two years, extensive training was provided to ethnic minority groups in Mai Son district, Son La province and Sa Pa township, and Lao Cai province [7], supported by dissemination of knowledge materials on seed and vegetable production, handling and storage, nutrition, group formation, and business/marketing skills, and learning visits. This strengthened the knowledge, attitudes, and skills of 27 Dao and Thai ethnic minority farmers (14 women) and multiple local partners [7]. In Mai Son, seed/seedling production rose from 70 to 400 tons and group income increased 8-fold after two years [7]. Farmers in Sa Pa previously not in the seedling production business achieved USD51-60 per household after a 4-6month season [7]. There was also improved selection and use of quality seeds from both formal and informal seed systems [7,10]. The practical and tailored training of the farmer groups increased their agency and ability to engage with other value chains actors [7,10]. This was further supported by direct engagement by government and community organizations. A network of 25 different types of local organizations was established for the development of value chains for vegetables and quality seeds. This included 14 actors directly participating in and working with the farmer groups (seed/seedling buyers, vegetable buyers, seed distribution companies, and networks of local stores) and 11 actors providing indirect support, such as agricultural extension, women's unions, farmers' unions; and people's committees). The farmer groups built connections with vegetable buyers (cooperatives, companies), and seed/seedling buyers (cooperatives, seed distribution companies, local seed stores) [10][11][12]."},{"index":2,"size":83,"text":"Nursery houses established with in-kind support from farmers for seed/seedling production and were managed by the groups to enable consistent production of seedlings for sale, and participatory learning and sharing of recommended practices in seed and vegetable production with members and the community [10]. One farmer group upgraded to a cooperative with legal status [7]. The local government actively supported the establishment of the nursery houses and skilling and registration of the groups and is interested in further supporting these groups [12]. ."}]},{"head":"GENDER, YOUTH, CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":75,"text":"CapDev relevance: 2 -Principal. Building of the capacity of farmers and other actors in the vegetable seed value chain was a core element of the innovation [6,8,9,10,11,12] Gender relevance: 2 -Principal. Improved capacity of women to participate in seed and vegetable production and marketing [6,8,9,10,11,12] Other cross-cutting dimensions description: Among the next users and end users were ethnic minority groups in Northern Vietnam. The innovation particularly focused on the H'mong, Thai and Dao ethnic groups. "}]}],"figures":[{"text":" By 2030, end all forms of malnutrition, including achieving, by 2025, the internationally agreed targets on stunting and wasting in children under 5 years of age, and address the nutritional needs of adolescent girls, pregnant and lactating women and older persons 2.4 -By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality 1.1 -By 2030, eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere, currently measured as people living on less than $1.25 a day CONTACT PERSON http://alliancebioversityciat.org www.cgiar.org The Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) delivers research-based solutions that harness agricultural biodiversity and sustainably transform food systems to improve people's lives. Alliance solutions address the global crises of malnutrition, climate change, biodiversity loss, and environmental degradation. "}],"sieverID":"476db5b4-90a5-4921-9865-819afc7eb9a2","abstract":"Through participatory vegetable and seed system development, ethnic minority farmers in target sites were organized in value chain groups to jointly produce and market various vegetable seeds/seedlings and vegetables. With the support of project partner and local partners, the groups' capacity to identify market opportunities and engage with value chain actors improved, whereby production increased by 5-7 times, from 70 to 400 tons after two years. Group and individual incomes also increased, and one group proceeded to register as a cooperative."}

data/part_2/01d99806f988db040eade4b173307bd0.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"01d99806f988db040eade4b173307bd0","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/076b7175-75c3-4010-870a-613ea1e44192/retrieve"},"pageCount":30,"title":"Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Farming in the Village Tank Cascade Systems of Sri Lanka","keywords":["climate change","paddy cultivation","land suitability","Village Tank Cascade Systems","MaxEnt model"],"chapters":[{"head":"Introduction","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":131,"text":"Global climate change is one of the major causal factors affecting crop production, leading to declines in crop yield and increased vulnerability due to food insecurity [1,2]. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have become the greatest threat to social-ecological systems (SESs) [3]. Smallholder farms are one of the key components of the SESs, contributing approximately 30-34% of the world food production, and are central to the conservation of agrobiodiversity for ensuring food and nutrition security [4][5][6]. Social-ecological systems are likely to be more vulnerable to climate change because they are dominant by smallholder farming systems for food production that are dependent on ecosystem services, and thus are more sensitive to climate variability [7]."},{"index":2,"size":170,"text":"The Village Tank Cascade Systems (VTCSs) in the dry and intermediate zones of Sri Lanka are considered unique SESs, and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has recently declared it as a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System (GIAHS). Village Tank Cascade Systems are rainwater harvesting-based irrigation systems that incorporate multifunctional social-ecological land uses at different spatial scales [8,9]. Food and water provisioning ecosystem services are the keys to sustaining the overall system productivity (economic, ecological, social and physical) in the VTCSs [10,11]. Paddy farming is a vital part of the Village Tank Cascade System (VTCS) environment as it provides not only food provisioning services, but is also linked with other important ecosystem services and biocultural elements that sustain the overall system productivity and well-being of people [12,13]. However, there is growing concern over the considerable impact of recent climate variability and change on paddy farming undertaken in VTCSs, which have evolved as self-sustaining, climate-resilient and efficient for surface rain-water harvesting during the last 2000 years or more [14][15][16]."},{"index":3,"size":185,"text":"Changes in climate, such as increased variability of rainfall and temperature, shifting onset of rainfall and seasonality and changing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to change agro-climatic suitability for seasonal crops, leading to a decrease in paddy farming productivity over most of the countries in South Asia [17]. Based on simulations of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and climate scenarios, a yield reduction of up to 10% in rice has been projected for South Asia (compared to 1998-2002) due to increased temperature and prolonged drought [18,19]. Sri Lanka, being one of the countries in the South Asian region, is no exception when it comes to the impacts of climate change on paddy cultivation. Paddy is the primary staple food crop that occupies 40% of the cultivated lands in the country. The crop is heavily fragmented with respect to ownership, with over 66% of the plots being less than one hectare. Approximately 23.3% of the paddy lands (35% of the irrigated paddy area) across the country are under VTCSs areas cultivated as smallholder farms that are heavily dependent on seasonal monsoon rainfall [20][21][22][23][24]."},{"index":4,"size":234,"text":"It is evident that Sri Lanka has experienced unusually heavy short rains and longer periods of droughts during the past years, and these types of extreme weather events are expected to continue in the future [25,26]. Apart from the IPCC regional projections at the coarse scale, few studies have attempted to project future climate change scenarios for Sri Lanka, based on downscaled climate data to identify climate change impacts on agricultural productivity for different cropping systems [27][28][29]. Projected climate variability and change would seriously affect the agricultural productivity of the VTCSs, since these systems comprise diverse smallholder farming patterns integrated with surfacewater harvesting irrigation systems based on monsoonal precipitation [11,23,[30][31][32][33]. Water availability for paddy cultivation in the VTCSs mostly depends on the distribution and amount of rainfall received for village tanks and upstream catchment areas during the inter-monsoon and major monsoon seasons of the year [34,35]. Thus, paddy cultivation in the dry zone is highly susceptible to seasonal variability of rainfall, temperature and soil moisture content during the cropping period [36]. In this context, it is important to have an in-depth understanding of variability (i.e., anomalies) and trends of monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature in relation to different stages of paddy production during a cultivation season. A flow chart developed to present the possible indicators of climate variability and change analysis and their impact on VTCS paddy production is shown in Figure 1."},{"index":5,"size":38,"text":"Sustainability 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 31 paddy lands (35% of the irrigated paddy area) across the country are under VTCSs areas cultivated as smallholder farms that are heavily dependent on seasonal monsoon rainfall [20][21][22][23][24]."},{"index":6,"size":630,"text":"It is evident that Sri Lanka has experienced unusually heavy short rains and longer periods of droughts during the past years, and these types of extreme weather events are expected to continue in the future [25,26]. Apart from the IPCC regional projections at the coarse scale, few studies have attempted to project future climate change scenarios for Sri Lanka, based on downscaled climate data to identify climate change impacts on agricultural productivity for different cropping systems [27][28][29]. Projected climate variability and change would seriously affect the agricultural productivity of the VTCSs, since these systems comprise diverse smallholder farming patterns integrated with surface-water harvesting irrigation systems based on monsoonal precipitation [11,23,[30][31][32][33]. Water availability for paddy cultivation in the VTCSs mostly depends on the distribution and amount of rainfall received for village tanks and upstream catchment areas during the inter-monsoon and major monsoon seasons of the year [34,35]. Thus, paddy cultivation in the dry zone is highly susceptible to seasonal variability of rainfall, temperature and soil moisture content during the cropping period [36]. In this context, it is important to have an in-depth understanding of variability (i.e., anomalies) and trends of monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature in relation to different stages of paddy production during a cultivation season. A flow chart developed to present the possible indicators of climate variability and change analysis and their impact on VTCS paddy production is shown in Figure 1. Shifting current climate-suitable areas for crop production is likely to occur due to the influence of climate change [37,38]. Though the effects of climate variability on crop yields have been broadly studied, the consequences of climate suitability changes in cropland areas are less well understood [39]. Therefore, modelling climate suitability for paddy in VTCSs is highly useful to identify future climate-risk areas for paddy production. With the recent advancements in the modelling techniques and increasing access to climate data, researchers have switched to rigorous multi-model ensemble techniques with downscaled country-specific climate data to analyse climate variables and climatic suitability for the specific crops under changing climatic conditions, based on GCMs and Shifting current climate-suitable areas for crop production is likely to occur due to the influence of climate change [37,38]. Though the effects of climate variability on crop yields have been broadly studied, the consequences of climate suitability changes in cropland areas are less well understood [39]. Therefore, modelling climate suitability for paddy in VTCSs is highly useful to identify future climate-risk areas for paddy production. With the recent advancements in the modelling techniques and increasing access to climate data, researchers have switched to rigorous multi-model ensemble techniques with downscaled country-specific climate data to analyse climate variables and climatic suitability for the specific crops under changing climatic conditions, based on GCMs and climate scenarios [17,20,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46]. The application of Species Distribution Models (SDMs), coupled with GCMs and climate scenarios, to estimate crop suitability under the poten-tial impact of climate change in different geographical regions has increased in recent years [40,[46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54]. Among SDMs, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model is one of the widely used models to predict the climate suitability of target species based on climatic and environment variables [55,56]. More importantly, MaxEnt has been used in Sri Lanka to investigate the potential risk of climate change on area suitability for ecologically and economically important species, for example, the threat of invasive species [57,58], crop wild relatives [59], neglected and underutilised fruit species [60], economically significant fruit species such as pineapple (Ananas comosus (L.) Merr.) [61], and tea (Camellia sinensis L.) [62] and mammals [63]. However, despite paddy being a staple food crop and its socio-cultural importance in ensuring food security in Sri Lanka, there are relatively few studies that have investigated the potential suitability of areas for minor irrigated and rainfed paddy cultivation under future climate change."},{"index":7,"size":125,"text":"This paper aimed to investigate climate change impact on suitability for paddy farming in the VTCSs of Sri Lanka. The specific objectives were to: (i) evaluate the past rainfall and temperature trends in a 75-year period (1946-2020); (ii) assess the future trends of rainfall and temperature up to 2100; and (iii) demarcate the future changes in the climate suitability of land areas for paddy farming in the North and North-central VTCSs zone by using the MaxEnt model for the medium-term (2050) and long-term (2070) climate changes. The findings of this study will help the process of reviewing Sri Lanka's National Adaptation Plan for climate change impacts, which seeks to implement innovative adaptation strategies in response to the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change [26]."}]},{"head":"Materials and Methods","index":2,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Study Area","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":196,"text":"This study focused on the North and North-central VTCS zone in the dry zone of Sri Lanka, the largest zone with 617 VTCSs that occupies approximately 10,000 km 2 , of which about 20% is classed as paddy farming land use system (approximately 16% of the total paddy land extent in Sri Lanka) (Figure 2) [11,23]. The entire North and North-central VTCS zone is located within the DL1 Agro Ecological Region of Sri Lanka [64,65]. Based on the last fifty years of weather data (1971-2020) recorded at Anuradhapura meteorological station, the average annual rainfall in the study area is 1320 mm, varying from 798 to 2483 mm. The rainfall pattern in the area is strongly influenced by two monsoon climate regimes: the South-West Monsoon (SWM) from May to September and the North-East Monsoon (NEM) from December to February [34,66]. There are two distinct inter-monsoonal periods from March to April and from October to November, being the First Inter-Monsoon (FIM) and the Second Inter-Monsoon (SIM), respectively [67]. Thus, the rainfall amount and a well-defined bi-modal distribution pattern create four climatic seasons with two major cultivation seasons-March to August (Yala) and September to February (Maha) in a year."},{"index":2,"size":353,"text":"The average daily ambient temperature is 27 • C, ranging from 20.6 • C to 33.2 • C. Evaporation varies from 3.5 to 7.5 mm/day and evapotranspiration varies spatially from 1000 to 1400 mm/year [30]. Three major soil groups are prominent in the study area: Reddish Brown Earths-Rhodustalfs (60%), Low Humic Gley-Tropaqualfs (30%) and alluvial (10%) [66]. Geomorphological and substratum features of the study area favourably contribute to surface drainage patterns and efficient rainwater harvesting into the tank and ground water systems. The elevation of the study area varies from 100-300 m amsl with undulating terrain features of the VTCS landscape [23,66]. The ecological, hydrological and geomorphological features provide a favourable setting for the community to adopt more climate-resilient lowland paddy farming in VTCS areas. Paddy farming in the VTCSs also has symbiotic relationships with ecosystem functions and services generated in the area that largely reduce climate stresses and maintain adequate paddy productivity. However, seasonal and intra-annual climate variability significantly impacts on the supply of the vital ecosystem services linked with sustainable paddy production in the VTCSs [10,66,68]. The average daily ambient temperature is 27 °C, ranging from 20.6 °C to 33.2 °C. Evaporation varies from 3.5 to 7.5 mm/day and evapotranspiration varies spatially from 1000 to 1400 mm/year [30]. Three major soil groups are prominent in the study area: Reddish Brown Earths-Rhodustalfs (60%), Low Humic Gley-Tropaqualfs (30%) and alluvial (10%) [66]. Geomorphological and substratum features of the study area favourably contribute to surface drainage patterns and efficient rainwater harvesting into the tank and ground water systems. The elevation of the study area varies from 100-300 m amsl with undulating terrain features of the VTCS landscape [23,66]. The ecological, hydrological and geomorphological features provide a favourable setting for the community to adopt more climate-resilient lowland paddy farming in VTCS areas. Paddy farming in the VTCSs also has symbiotic relationships with ecosystem functions and services generated in the area that largely reduce climate stresses and maintain adequate paddy productivity. However, seasonal and intra-annual climate variability significantly impacts on the supply of the vital ecosystem services linked with sustainable paddy production in the VTCSs [10,66,68]."}]},{"head":"Analysis of Observed Climate Data","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":60,"text":"The monthly temperature and rainfall data obtained from the Department of Meteorology of Sri Lanka were analysed to examine variability and probability distribution of annual and seasonal temperature and rainfall of Anuradhapura, referring to the Non-Global Warming Period (NGWP) and Global Warming Period (GWP) [69][70][71]. Linear regression analysis was used to evaluate monthly and seasonal changes in rainfall and tem- "}]},{"head":"Analysis of Observed Climate Data","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":151,"text":"The monthly temperature and rainfall data obtained from the Department of Meteorology of Sri Lanka were analysed to examine variability and probability distribution of annual and seasonal temperature and rainfall of Anuradhapura, referring to the Non-Global Warming Period (NGWP) and Global Warming Period (GWP) [69][70][71]. Linear regression analysis was used to evaluate monthly and seasonal changes in rainfall and temperature over a period of the past fifty years (1970 to 2020). The regression results are reported as p-values (p value of the slope coefficient), b (the slope coefficient) and R 2 (coefficient of determination), indicating trend and variability using 95% confidence intervals. Data analysis and visualisation were completed through 'lattice', 'ggplot2 and 'ggpubr' packages in R statistical software version 4.1.2. Probability distribution plots of seasonal and annual temperature and rainfall for NGWP (1946 to 1970) and GWP (1971 to 2020) were developed using an extension of 'ggdensity' function of 'ggplot2 [72][73][74]."}]},{"head":"Assessment of Long-Term Projected Climate Data","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":162,"text":"The study analysed projected downscaled (50 km × 50 km) monthly temperature and rainfall data pertaining to the period from 1950 to 2100 (observed data from 1979 to 2010 of the Anuradhapura Meteorological Station-8.35 • N; 80.38 • E), obtained from the climatedatafactory.com. (accessed on 7 July 2020). The study used two GCMs that have widely been used in previous literature and which perform better for the South Asian region, the improved fifth version of the GCM, MIROC (MIROC5-Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) [75] and MPI-ESM-LR (Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, Low Resolution) [76]. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) statistical test [77,78] and Sen's slope estimator [79] were used to analyse the long-term projected trends of annual rainfall and temperature data [22,34,80] using the 'kendall' and 'trend' packages in R statistical software [72,80,81]. In the M-K trend test, the study did not employ pre-whitening of climate data for eliminating the influence of auto-correlation, due to the large length of the dataset [71]."}]},{"head":"Modelling Future Climate Suitability Areas 2.4.1. Extraction of Paddy Cultivation Location Data","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":253,"text":"A digital grid-based map (1 km 2 ) was overlaid on the national paddy land map (1:50,000 digital land use data from 1992 to 2017 of the Survey Department of Sri Lanka) and the entire island was divided into 65,610 grids using the Union Operation tool in ArcMap (version 10.4.1) software (ESRI, Redlands, CA, USA). The percentage area of paddy land in each grid was calculated using the Geometry Calculation option in ArcMap. Out of the total number of grids (65,610), paddy cultivation locations were distributed only in 35,537 grids. All grids that contained more than 35% paddy locations (9000 grids) were selected as per the method used in previous studies [82,83]. A total of 936 paddy cultivation locations were selected using a Random Point Generator tool in ArcMap software and used as the paddy location points data set with geographic coordinates for this study. The selected paddy cultivation location data were developed based on water source (minor irrigated and rainfed) under Yala and Maha cultivation seasons, following the process of extract and downscale paddy cultivation location data shown in Figure 3. Classification of paddy cultivation areas, considering the type of water sources used for paddy cultivation, was done using ArcMap (version 10.4.1) software overlay operations by integrating GIS maps acquired from different national agencies related to water governance. Five paddy land classes were identified accordingly. The extracted and downscaled paddy cultivation location data for the Yala and Maha cultivation seasons overlaid on the paddy land classification map is shown in Figure 4."}]},{"head":"Selection of Environmental Variables","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":79,"text":"The productivity of paddy farming in VTCSs is determined by three main factors: (i) agro-climatology (rainfall, temperature, soil moisture, evapotranspiration); (ii) agroecology (geomorphology, soil properties, biodiversity, ecological functions); and (iii) socioecology (biocultural and traditional knowledge practices) [23,66]. The inclusion of both continuous and categorical variables is important to enhance the predictive performance of SDMs [84,85]. Hence, environmental data used in this study were divided into two main categories: (i) climatic-agroclimatic; and (ii) non-climatic-agroecological factors that determine paddy yield [85][86][87][88]."},{"index":2,"size":362,"text":"The current monthly climate data (temperature and rainfall) pertaining to 1970-2000, available as GIS raster files (spatial resolution 1 km 2 grid size), were downloaded from the WorldClim web portal (version 2.1; https://www.worldclim.org/data/worldclim21.html; accessed on 2 September 2021). As adapted by recent studies in Sri Lanka and South Asia to model the area suitability for future climate change, the study used projected downscaled future climate data (averaged temperature and rainfall) of two GCMs that are mostly used in the region (MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR) under medium and high emission Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for 2050 and 2070, downloaded from the WorldClim web portal with same resolution to the current climate data. [49,50,52,58,60].    Paddy cultivation in the VTCSs mainly depends on the amount of rainfall received from inter-monsoonal and major monsoonal periods for the VTCS catchment areas during the current and previous cultivation seasons of the year [89]. This enables the storage of excess water in the village tanks to irrigate paddy in dry spells [34]. The ideal annual rainfall required for the optimum productivity of rice varies between 1100 mm and 1250 mm [90]. Similarly, temperature variations also affect different stages of paddy plant growth, development and grain filling. The optimum temperature required for paddy cultivation ranges from 25 • C to 35 • C [91]. Further, elevated maximum temperatures lead to increased evapotranspiration (ET), surface evaporation and depleted soil moisture, resulting in decreased water availability for paddy cultivation [69,88,89,92,93]. In consideration of the above facts, the study considered monthly mean temperature and monthly cumulative rainfall for Yala and Maha seasons as climatic variables for this study. The study also considered soil, slope and elevation as agroecological (non-climatic) variables that have a significant influence on paddy yield productivity [86,87]. This data was obtained from the Natural Resources Management Centre (NRMC) of the Department of Agriculture, Sri Lanka as raster layers with the same spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) as WorldClim climate data. Thus, the study employed six variables (paddy cultivation locations, rainfall, temperature, slope, soil and elevation) for running the MaxEnt model for both Yala and Maha cultivation seasons (Table 1). "}]},{"head":"MaxEnt Modelling","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":240,"text":"MaxEnt species distribution modelling technique (version 3.4.4) was used to identify the potential area of suitability for paddy cultivation in Sri Lanka [94,95]. MaxEnt is an extensively used modelling technique with demonstrated ability to correctly forecast the geographic distribution of species under changing climatic conditions [95,96]. The performance of MaxEnt is high compared to several other presence-only modelling methods [55]. Further, MaxEnt results in a continuous output ('.asc' file extension) that can be transformed into GIS-compatible output [94]. Out of the 648 paddy cultivation location points, MaxEnt was run for the Yala season with 181 location points and for the Maha season with 467 location points. Of the full set of location points, 80% were used for model development and the remaining 20% for accuracy testing. The maximum number of iterations was set to 1000, allowing the model to adequately converge for a better and uniform prediction. Auto features type was selected, enabling the model to select the best combination of feature types [94][95][96]. Cloglog was selected as the output format to represent the probability-ranging from 0 to 1 of potential distribution [50]. All the other parameters were set at MaxEnt software (version 3.4.3) 3.4.3 default values, since the use of default parameters has been verified to work well across a range of species with varying numbers of occurrences [95]. Model accuracy was tested using the Area Under the Curve (AUC), the True Skill Statistic (TSS), Sensitivity and Specificity [97][98][99]."}]},{"head":"Area Suitability Mapping and Change Dynamics","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":670,"text":"The Probability of occurrence (potential occurrence localities) maps for paddy (Oryza sativa L.) developed with MaxEnt model pertaining to the two cultivation seasons (Yala and Maha) and five climate scenarios (current, 2050/RCP4.5, 2050/RCP8.5, 2070/RCP4.5 and 2070/RCP8.5) were imported as gridded maps into ArcMap software environment for further analysis. The probability of occurrence maps was classified based on probability values ranging from 0 to 1, following the approach adopted by [40,46,49,50,[100][101][102]. Accordingly, gridded maps for area suitability for paddy cultivation in Sri Lanka were developed by dividing into four classes considering the probability values of each grid, using the reclassify tool in ArcMap. The range of probability (p) values defined for each suitability class were: (i) Very low suitability (p < 0.1); (ii) Low suitability (0.1 ≤ p < 0.33); (iii) Moderate suitability (0.33 ≤ p < 0.66); and (iv) High suitability (p ≥ 0.66) for minor irrigated and rainfed paddy cultivation. Change detection of area suitability for paddy cultivation for future climate change scenarios was calculated with respect to the suitability for current climatic conditions, using pixel-based spatial analysis and expressed as positive (+), negative (−) and no change (0). The above four suitability classes were further reclassified in ArcMap with the aim of analysing spatiotemporal dynamics-shifts of suitability areas in the North and North-central VTCS from current to projected climate suitability under medium-term and long-term climate scenarios. The process followed for MaxEnt modelling, and area suitability analyses are shown in Figure 5.   6. Temperature exhibits an increasing trend that is significant at 95% confidence interval (p ≤ 0.04) in all months (except April) over the considered period (Figure 6a). The low R 2 values (0.06-0.27) indicate high interannual variability of monthly mean temperature and seasonal temperature [103]. A significant increasing trend (p ≤ 0.01) in seasonal mean temperature by 0.02-0.03 °C/year is observed in four monsoon seasons (Figure 6b). The mean temperature of both   6. Temperature exhibits an increasing trend that is significant at 95% confidence interval (p ≤ 0.04) in all months (except April) over the considered period (Figure 6a). The low R 2 values (0.06-0.27) indicate high interannual variability of monthly mean temperature and seasonal temperature [103]. A significant increasing trend (p ≤ 0.01) in seasonal mean temperature by 0.02-0.03 • C/year is observed in four monsoon seasons (Figure 6b). The mean temperature of both cultivation seasons (Yala/Maha) of the North and North-central VTCS zone increases significantly (p = 0) by about 0.02 • C/year from 1970 to 2020 (Figure 6c).  Changes in interannual monthly and seasonal rainfall from 1970 to 2020 (GWP) in the North and North-central VTCS zone are given in Figures 7 and 8. There are no significant trends observed in interannual rainfall in all months and monsoon seasons (p = 0.1-0.9) (Figure 7a,b). However, Yala cultivation records a significant positive trend (p = 0.03) (Figure 7c). Generally low R 2 values recorded in all months and monsoon seasons indicate high interannual variability of rainfall during the period (Figure 7a,b). Relatively high interannual variability of rainfall is recorded during the Maha cultivation season compared to the Yala cultivation season (Figure 7c). Changes in interannual monthly and seasonal rainfall from 1970 to 2020 (GWP) in the North and North-central VTCS zone are given in Figures 7 and 8. There are no significant trends observed in interannual rainfall in all months and monsoon seasons (p = 0.1-0.9) (Figure 7a,b). However, Yala cultivation records a significant positive trend (p = 0.03) (Figure 7c). Generally low R 2 values recorded in all months and monsoon seasons indicate high interannual variability of rainfall during the period (Figure 7a,b). Relatively high interannual variability of rainfall is recorded during the Maha cultivation season compared to the Yala cultivation season (Figure 7c). Changes to variance in temperature are associated with these changes to higher annual and seasonal mean temperatures, suggesting greater interannual variability in annual and seasonal temperatures after 1946-1970. In addition, there is a likelihood of bimodal and trimodal distributions for seasonal temperature variations towards higher temperature values in the GWP. "}]},{"head":"Results","index":11,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Changes in Observed Climate","index":12,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Anomalies of Probability Distribution of Temperature and Rainfall","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":112,"text":"Probability distributions for seasonal and annual temperature in the NGWP (1946 to 1970) and in the two consecutive twenty-five-year periods (1971-1995 and 1996-2020) during the GWP in the North and North-central VTCS zone are given in Figure 8. These distributions show shifts to the higher values (approximately 1.0 • C) from the 1946-1970 period (NGWP) to the 1971-1995 and 1996-2020 periods (GWP). Changes to variance in temperature are associated with these changes to higher annual and seasonal mean temperatures, suggesting greater interannual variability in annual and seasonal temperatures after 1946-1970. In addition, there is a likelihood of bimodal and trimodal distributions for seasonal temperature variations towards higher temperature values in the GWP.  "}]},{"head":"Changes in Future Climate","index":14,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":152,"text":"The analyses of projected temperature and rainfall time series data from 1950 to 2100 in the study area indicate trends of increasing temperature and rainfall in the North and North-central VTCS zone (Figure 10). The summary showing the projected mean annual temperature and rainfall trend analyses based on M-K and Sen's slope statistical tests from 1950 to 2100 are presented in Table 2. Statistically significant trends (at 95% confidence interval) were detected for both temperature and rainfall for the considered period. Temperature for the projected period shows projected Sen's slope increases of 0.02 • C/year and 0.03 • C/year for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Similarly, rainfall is projected to experience Sen's slope increases of 2.0 mm/year and 2.9 mm/year for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Along with these increases, the rainfall projections are for increases in the interannual variability in rainfall towards the end of the 21st century (Figure 10b). "}]},{"head":"Changes in Future Climate","index":15,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":466,"text":"The analyses of projected temperature and rainfall time series data from 1950 to 2100 in the study area indicate trends of increasing temperature and rainfall in the North and North-central VTCS zone (Figure 10). The summary showing the projected mean annual temperature and rainfall trend analyses based on M-K and Sen's slope statistical tests from 1950 to 2100 are presented in Table 2. Statistically significant trends (at 95% confidence interval) were detected for both temperature and rainfall for the considered period. Temperature for the projected period shows projected Sen's slope increases of 0.02 °C/year and 0.03 °C/year for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Similarly, rainfall is projected to experience Sen's slope increases of 2.0 mm/year and 2.9 mm/year for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Along with these increases, the rainfall projections are for increases in the interannual variability in rainfall towards the end of the 21st century (Figure 10b).    Based on the probability of occurrence maps of the MaxEnt model (Figure 11), classified area suitability maps for minor irrigated and rainfed paddy cultivation in Sri Lanka were developed for the current and future climate scenarios (Figure 12). The accuracy assessment results of the MaxEnt model are presented in Table 3. The projected change in areas by suitability for paddy production for all of Sri Lanka and within the North and North-central VTCS zone (study area) in both Yala and Maha cultivation seasons under each climate scenario are shown in Table 4 and Figure 13. These results show contrasting patterns for the whole country, compared to the North and Northcentral VTCS zone. For example, there are no highly and moderately suitable areas recorded for the Yala season in the North and North-central VTCS zone. Low suitability areas for the Yala season are projected to decrease by approximately 8% (RCP4.5) to 50% (RCP8.5) in the medium-term and 51% (RCP8.5) to 69% (RCP4.5) in long-term climate scenarios. The very low suitability areas are projected to increase by up to 10% (RCP8.5) in the medium-term and by 13% (RCP4.5) and 10% (RCP8.5) under long-term climate scenarios, compared to the current extent. In contrast, the extent of areas that are highly suitable for paddy cultivation for all of Sri Lanka will increase by approximately 7% (RCP8.5) in the medium-term and 10% (RCP4.5) to 11%(RCP8.5) in the long-term. The moderately suitable areas for all of Sri Lanka are projected to decrease by approximately 9% (RCP4.5) to 14% (RCP8.5) for the Yala season under the medium-term and 6% (RCP4.5) to 12% (RCP8.5) under the long-term climate scenarios, compared to the current extent. Similar to the VTCS zone, very low suitability areas in all of Sri Lanka will increase by approximately 3% (RCP4.5) to 5% (RCP8.5) in the medium-term and 2% in the long-term for the Yala season, compared to the current extent."},{"index":2,"size":260,"text":"During the Maha cultivation season in all of Sri Lanka and within the North and North-central VTCS zone, it is projected that the extent of highly and moderately suitable areas will decrease in both medium and long-term climate scenarios. Within the VTCS zone, highly suitable areas are projected to decrease significantly by approximately 88% (RCP4.5) to 82% (RCP8.5) in the medium-term and 52% (RCP4.5) to 57% (RCP8.5) in the long-term climate scenarios, whereas for all of Sri Lanka, these areas are projected to decrease by approximately 2% (RCP4.5) to 15% (RCP8.5) in the medium-term and 14% (RCP4.5) to 16% (RCP8.5) in the long-term, compared to the current extent. Conversely, the extent of low and very low suitability areas for all of Sri Lanka and the VTCS zone is projected to increase in the Maha season in long-term climate projections, whereas very low suitable areas within the VTCS zone show a significant increase by approximately 92% (RCP4.5) to 273% (RCP8.5). For all of Sri Lanka, it will increase by approximately 0.5% (RCP4.5) and 23% (RCP8.5) in the medium-term and 4% (RCP4.5) and 31% (RCP8.5) in the long-term, compared to the current extent. However, in the medium-term, low suitable areas for Maha cultivation are projected to decrease in suitability by 11% (RCP4.5) and 8% (RCP8.5), compared to the current extent.    During the Maha cultivation season in all of Sri Lanka and within the North and North-central VTCS zone, it is projected that the extent of highly and moderately suitable areas will decrease in both medium and long-term climate scenarios. Within the VTCS "}]},{"head":"Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Climate Suitability","index":16,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":492,"text":"Spatio-temporal dynamics (spatial shifts/conversions) of climate suitability due to future climate change is described under three categories: (i) contraction (improvement or reduction of current suitability of a given class due to a shift/conversion to higher or lower suitability classes); (ii) expansion (expansion of current suitability of a given class due to a gain from other suitability classes); and (iii) constant (when the current suitability areas remain under current and future climate). The quantitative changes to climate suitability areas in relation to the current climate suitability under future climate change scenarios across the North and North-central VTCS zone in the Maha cultivation season are shown in Table 5 and Figure 14. The study results indicate that highly suitable areas will reduce their current suitability by approximately 90% (RCP8.5) and 96% (RCP4.5) in the medium-term and 85% (RCP8.5) and 88% (RCP4.5) in the long-term climate scenarios. Likewise, moderate suitability areas will reduce current suitability to lower suitability by approximately 22% (RCP4.5) to 35% (RCP8.5) in the medium-term and 34% (RCP8.5) and 38% (RCP4.5) in the long-term climate scenarios. However, the extent of moderately suitable areas projected to remain unchanged is 65% (RCP8.5) and 78% (RCP4.5) in the medium-term and 62% (RCP4.5) and 66% (RCP8.5) in long-term climate scenarios, respectively. There is also a likelihood that areas with verylow suitability will substantially expand by approximately 35% (RCP4.5) and 38% (RCP8.5) in the medium-term and 277% (RCP4.5) and 511% (RCP8.5) in long-term, compared to the current extent. There is potential for expansion of lower suitability areas by approximately 17% (RCP4.5) to 27% (RCP8.5) in medium-term and 25% (RCP8.5) and 28% (RCP4.5) in long-term climate scenarios, due to a gain from moderate suitability areas. There is also a likelihood that approximately 76-89% and 94% of the low suitability areas will remain unchanged in the medium-term and the long-term climate scenarios, respectively. substantial extents of low and moderate suitability areas are projected to remain unchanged in the medium-term and long-term climate scenarios (Figure 15).  The results show a reduction in the aggregate extent of low and moderate suitability classes in the future by approximately 23% (RCP4.5) and 21% (RCP8.5) in the mediumterm, and 20% (RCP4.5) and 18% (RCP8.5) in long-term climate scenarios, compared to the current extent. Further spatial shifts of suitability areas from current suitability to future suitability classes occur in medium-term and long-term climate scenarios. Current lower suitability has converted to moderate suitability in the medium-term by approximately 24% (RCP4.5) and 11% (RCP8.5), and 5% and 4% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively in long-term climate scenarios, compared to the current extent. There is also a likelihood of expansion of lower suitability due to conversion from moderate suitability areas by approximately 22% (RCP4.5) to 34% (RCP8.5) in the medium-term and 37% (RCP4.5) to 33% (RCP8.5) in long-term climate scenarios, compared to the current extent. Further, substantial extents of low and moderate suitability areas are projected to remain unchanged in the medium-term and long-term climate scenarios (Figure 15). "}]},{"head":"Discussion","index":17,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Climate Variability and Trend","index":18,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":154,"text":"Predicted future climate change is likely to affect future global paddy producti [2,50,104]. To study the impact of climate change, this study explored the effect of clima variability and change on rainwater-based (minor irrigated and rainfed) paddy farmi in the North and North-central VTCS zone in Sri Lanka. The observed and projected c mate data (temperature and rainfall) was analysed to explore past and future climate v iability and trends in the study area. The M-K test and Sen's slope estimator were used examine the trend of the data series. Results show that the projected mean annual te perature of the North and North-central VTCS zone areas will undergo a significant (p 0) warming trend (0.02 °C/year, RCP4.5 and 0.03 °C/year, RCP8.5) towards the end of t twenty-first century. A significant increasing trend in mean temperature in both cultiv tion seasons (Yala and Maha) was observed from 1970 to 2020, with high interannual v "}]},{"head":"Discussion","index":19,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Climate Variability and Trend","index":20,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":259,"text":"Predicted future climate change is likely to affect future global paddy production [2,50,104]. To study the impact of climate change, this study explored the effect of climate variability and change on rainwater-based (minor irrigated and rainfed) paddy farming in the North and North-central VTCS zone in Sri Lanka. The observed and projected climate data (temperature and rainfall) was analysed to explore past and future climate variability and trends in the study area. The M-K test and Sen's slope estimator were used to examine the trend of the data series. Results show that the projected mean annual temperature of the North and North-central VTCS zone areas will undergo a significant (p = 0) warming trend (0.02 • C/year, RCP4.5 and 0.03 • C/year, RCP8.5) towards the end of the twenty-first century. A significant increasing trend in mean temperature in both cultivation seasons (Yala and Maha) was observed from 1970 to 2020, with high interannual variability, which is in agreement with recent studies conducted in the same area using Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and observed climate data and such as those of [20,22,36,105,106]. Temperature variations in January to February and June to July are important for the Maha and Yala cultivation seasons, respectively, as they affect the flowering and ripening stages of the paddy [29,46,107]. Extremely elevated temperatures may also lead to a decrease in water quality and availability for irrigation [88,89,92]. In summary, continued warming trends and increasing variability and more extreme temperature events are likely in the future, which will potentially impact rice production in the VTCS areas [69,104]."},{"index":2,"size":142,"text":"Paddy farming in the VTCSs is highly dependent on water availability during the cultivation seasons. Thus, although rainfall projections are less reliable compared to temperature in GCMs, particularly in island countries [46,108], an understanding of likely future rainfall is critical for evaluating climate change impact on paddy production in the VTCSs. According to [109] long-term variability and trend analysis of rainfall data is much more appropriate to understand erratic and extreme rainfall changes, compared to the secular trend analysis. The M-K and Sen's slope test results showed that the trend of projected mean annual rainfall has been increasing significantly (p = 0) in the long-term, from 1950 to 2100, at a rate of 2.0 mm/year and 2.9 mm/year for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Further, the rainfall projections show a likelihood of increased interannual variation up to the end of the 21st century."},{"index":3,"size":85,"text":"Analysis of climate data at interannual and multi-decadal time scales provides a better picture of climate variability in the tropics. [110]. Linear regression analysis of historical rainfall data from 1970 to 2020 showed high interannual variability of seasonal rainfall in the study area. Further, it was observed that there is high interannual variability of rainfall during the Maha cultivation season. High variability in September-October, January and March rainfall could detrimentally affect the establishment and flowering stages of paddy plant growth during the Maha cultivation season."}]},{"head":"Anomalies of Probability Distribution of Temperature and Rainfall","index":21,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":287,"text":"Determining the probability of changes (mean and variance) in temperature and rainfall during multi-decadal time periods is important to understand anomalies of changing climate [109,[111][112][113]. Anomalies of the probability distribution of rainfall and temperature may affect paddy productivity in the VTCS areas [39,114,115]. This study examined the temporal shifts of seasonal and annual temperature and rainfall during the period when the majority of global warming occurred (1975-2020) [69,70], in two consecutive twentyfive-year periods (1971-1995 and 1996-2020) relative to the NGWP . Changes in the probability of extreme temperature events increased mean temperature, and increased variability were projected during the GWP. The mean annual temperature of the GWP has increased by approximately 1.0 • C compared to that of NGWP. This is comparable with the observations of the global mean surface temperature data in the IPCC special report on the impact of global warming [111]. Increases in the probability of extreme rainfall events, annual and seasonal rainfall and variance were observed for the periods 1971-1995 and 1996-2020. Mean annual rainfall decreased by 170 mm and increased by 47 mm for the periods of 1971-1995 and 1996-2020, respectively, in the GWP relative to NGWP. With the projected increase in the trend of global warming and increasing ocean surface temperature, more intense variability in rainfall is likely to occur in future [93,110,116,117]. In addition, compounding and cascading effects of climate change such as the impact due to the interaction between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Pacific Ocean could influence rainfall pattern anomalies and extreme events over the region [90]. This is likely to seriously disturb future paddy farming and food production in the VTCSs due to more uncertain and erratic rainfall patterns."}]},{"head":"Changes in Climate Suitability","index":22,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":196,"text":"The study modelled the current suitability of areas within the North and Northcentral VTCS zone of Sri Lanka for paddy farming in the Maha cultivation season and how the extent and distribution of these areas are likely to change in the medium (2050) and long-term (2070) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Maha cultivation season in the VTCS areas is important for paddy production, due to high water productivity and cropping intensity compared to the Yala season [15,118]. Future climate change projections for the Maha season in the VTCS zone show a reduction of high and moderate suitability areas, whereas the extents of very low and low suitability areas are likely to increase. The moderate and low suitability areas are much more important for paddy production in the VTCS zone, since more than 98% of the current paddy cultivation areas are classed as moderate (50%) and low (48%) suitability, while high and very low suitability areas make up less than 2% of the current paddy cultivation extent. Therefore, the projected reduction in the extent of moderate and low suitability areas would have a great impact on future paddy production in the North and North-central VTCS zone."},{"index":2,"size":161,"text":"Area suitability shifts (conversions) show expansion of areas likely to be suitable for paddy production under future climate scenarios. However, contraction of current suitability areas is likely to be more critical than the expansion of areas under future climate scenarios. Although the study results project expansion of areas likely to be suitable for paddy production through gain from other suitability classes, it is improbable that any expansion of newly suitable areas in a particular class would result in equal expansion of paddy cultivation into the newly suitable gain areas. This is because the areas with increased suitability may include non-arable land uses such as natural forests, water bodies, ecologically sensitive areas, built-up areas and areas planted with other field crops, due to the characteristics of highly diverse land use systems in SESs [39,104]. Thus, future research needs to be undertaken using finer scale land use assessments in VTCS areas, combined with modelling work to determine predicted suitability more consistent with reality."},{"index":3,"size":134,"text":"The study findings are consistent with the observations in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC [17], as well as the findings of [46,50] on the future potential change in areas suitable for rice growing throughout Asia. However, the modelling in this study has not taken into consideration (i) the changes in socioeconomic variables such as demographic and market trends which may have an effect on the paddy land use, and demand and supply of paddy production and (ii) the influence of future land use changes in the study area, which have impacts on ecosystem services linked with paddy farming system. Therefore, to further improve the model predictions of climate suitability of areas for paddy farming, socioeconomic and land use change variables could be used as an additional input layer in the modelling work."}]},{"head":"Conclusions","index":23,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":228,"text":"This study assessed historical climate variability and trends over the past 75 years (1946-2020), and future trends (up to 2100) and evaluated their impacts on suitability areas of paddy farming in the VTCSs under two GCMs (MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios for 2050 and 2070. Evaluation of historical climate change showed that the temperature increased by approximately 1.0 • C during the GWP. Further, positive secular warming trends of 0.02 • C/year, RCP4.5 and 0.03 • C/year under RCP8.5 are also projected in the future, until 2100. This period is also projected to experience high interannual variability in temperature. Rainfall shows high interannual variability during the last fifty years (1970-2020), but trends were not significant and were less discernible. However, projected rainfall data for 1950-2100 showed a significant (p = 0) upward trend of 2.0-2.9 mm/year. Further, analyses of rainfall and temperature probability distributions showed increases in long-term mean values during the last 50 years with temporal shifts of seasonality. Mean annual rainfall decreased by 170 mm and increased by 47 mm for the periods of 1971-1995 and 1996-2020, respectively, in the GWP relative to NGWP. In addition, there is a high possibility that the increasing trend of average ocean surface temperature and ENSO events will drive further changes to seasonal variability of rainfall and increase the number of extreme events in the future."},{"index":2,"size":206,"text":"Changes to future climate suitability of areas for paddy were evaluated under mediumterm (2050) and long-term (2070) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios based on five environment variables and paddy cultivation (rainfed and minor irrigated) location points. Both future scenarios project spatio-temporal shifts in climate suitability for paddy farming in the North and North-central VTCS zone. The MaxEnt model predicts that substantial extents of low and moderate suitability areas that are currently suitable will remain unchanged under future climate scenarios. However, the areas that are highly suitable for paddy cultivation are likely to decrease significantly in their suitability in the future compared to their current climate suitability. Further, the areas of moderate suitability are likely to reduce in the future by approximately 22% and 38%, compared to their current extent in the VTCS zone in the medium-term (2050) and long-term (2070), respectively, under the RCP4.5 climate scenario. The study provides evidence that the continuous warming trend with increasing variability in rainfall and shifting seasonality could increase the vulnerability of future paddy farming in the VTCSs. Therefore, it is imperative to adjust paddy farming patterns to deal with future climate change risks by enhancing adaptive capacity and building resilience of the paddy farming system in the VTCSs."}]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 1 . Figure 1. Potential indicator framework of climate variability and change analysis and their impacts on paddy farming productivity in Village Tank Cascade Systems. "},{"text":"Figure 1 . Figure 1. Potential indicator framework of climate variability and change analysis and their impacts on paddy farming productivity in Village Tank Cascade Systems. "},{"text":"Figure 2 . Figure 2. Distribution of VTCSs in Sri Lanka (a) and North and North-central VTCS zone (b). "},{"text":"Figure 2 . Figure 2. Distribution of VTCSs in Sri Lanka (a) and North and North-central VTCS zone (b). "},{"text":"Figure 3 . Figure 3. Process of extracting and downscaling paddy cultivation location data. Yala = Minor paddy cultivation season of the dry zone; Maha = Major paddy cultivation season of the dry zone.Figure 3. Process of extracting and downscaling paddy cultivation location data. Yala = Minor paddy cultivation season of the dry zone; Maha = Major paddy cultivation season of the dry zone. "},{"text":"Figure 3 . Figure 3. Process of extracting and downscaling paddy cultivation location data. Yala = Minor paddy cultivation season of the dry zone; Maha = Major paddy cultivation season of the dry zone.Figure 3. Process of extracting and downscaling paddy cultivation location data. Yala = Minor paddy cultivation season of the dry zone; Maha = Major paddy cultivation season of the dry zone. "},{"text":"Figure 4 . Figure 4. Paddy cultivation location data related to two cultivation seasons overlaid on the paddy land classification map of Sri Lanka.Figure 4. Paddy cultivation location data related to two cultivation seasons overlaid on the paddy land classification map of Sri Lanka. "},{"text":"Figure 4 . Figure 4. Paddy cultivation location data related to two cultivation seasons overlaid on the paddy land classification map of Sri Lanka.Figure 4. Paddy cultivation location data related to two cultivation seasons overlaid on the paddy land classification map of Sri Lanka. "},{"text":"Figure 5 . Figure 5. The process followed in MaxEnt modelling and area suitability analysis. "},{"text":"3. 1 . 1 . Changes in Variability and Trends of Temperature and Rainfall Changes in interannual monthly and seasonal temperature from 1970 to 2020 (GWP) in the North and North-central VTCS zone are given in Figure "},{"text":"Figure 5 . Figure 5. The process followed in MaxEnt modelling and area suitability analysis. "},{"text":"1 . Changes in Observed Climate 3.1.1. Changes in Variability and Trends of Temperature and Rainfall Changes in interannual monthly and seasonal temperature from 1970 to 2020 (GWP) in the North and North-central VTCS zone are given in Figure "},{"text":"Sustainability 2023 , 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 31 cultivation seasons (Yala/Maha) of the North and North-central VTCS zone increases significantly (p = 0) by about 0.02 °C/year from 1970 to 2020 (Figure 6c). "},{"text":"Figure 6 . Figure 6. Temperature trend and variability from 1970 to 2020 in North and North-central VTCS zone: (a) monthly; (b) climatic seasons; and (c) cultivation seasons. Lines = linear regression; shading area = 95% confidence intervals; circles = temperature and rainfall values; p = p-value of slope coefficient; b = slope coefficient; and R 2 = coefficient of determination. FIM = First Inter-monsoon; SWM = south-west monsoon; SIM = second inter-monsoon; NEM = north-east monsoon; Yala = minor cultivation season; and Maha = major cultivation season. "},{"text":"Figure 6 . Figure 6. Temperature trend and variability from 1970 to 2020 in North and North-central VTCS zone: (a) monthly; (b) climatic seasons; and (c) cultivation seasons. Lines = linear regression; shading area = 95% confidence intervals; circles = temperature and rainfall values; p = p-value of slope coefficient; b = slope coefficient; and R 2 = coefficient of determination. FIM = First Inter-monsoon; SWM = south-west monsoon; SIM = second inter-monsoon; NEM = north-east monsoon; Yala = minor cultivation season; and Maha = major cultivation season. "},{"text":"Figure 7 . Figure 7. Rainfall trend and variability from 1970 to 2020 in North and North-central VTCS zone: (a) monthly; (b) climatic seasons; and (c) cultivation seasons. Lines = linear regression; shading area = 95% confidence intervals; circles = temperature and rainfall values; p = p-value of slope coefficient; b = slope coefficient; and R 2 = coefficient of determination. FIM = first inter-monsoon; SWM = southwest monsoon; SIM = second inter-monsoon; NEM = north-east monsoon; Yala = minor cultivation season; and Maha = major cultivation season.3.1.2. Anomalies of Probability Distribution of Temperature and RainfallProbability distributions for seasonal and annual temperature in the NGWP (1946 to 1970) and in the two consecutive twenty-five-year periods(1971-1995 and 1996-2020)  during the GWP in the North and North-central VTCS zone are given in Figure8. These distributions show shifts to the higher values (approximately 1.0 °C) from the 1946-1970 period (NGWP) to the 1971-1995 and 1996-2020 periods (GWP). Changes to variance in temperature are associated with these changes to higher annual and seasonal mean temperatures, suggesting greater interannual variability in annual and seasonal temperatures after 1946-1970. In addition, there is a likelihood of bimodal and trimodal distributions for seasonal temperature variations towards higher temperature values in the GWP. "},{"text":"Figure 7 . Figure 7. Rainfall trend and variability from 1970 to 2020 in North and North-central VTCS zone: (a) monthly; (b) climatic seasons; and (c) cultivation seasons. Lines = linear regression; shading area = 95% confidence intervals; circles = temperature and rainfall values; p = p-value of slope coefficient; b = slope coefficient; and R 2 = coefficient of determination. FIM = first inter-monsoon; SWM = south-west monsoon; SIM = second inter-monsoon; NEM = north-east monsoon; Yala = minor cultivation season; and Maha = major cultivation season. "},{"text":"Figure 8 . Figure 8. Shift in the probability distribution of seasonal and annual mean temperature during 1946-1970 (Non-Global Warming Period) and 1971-2020 (Global Warming Period) in the North and North-central VTCS zone: (a) first inter-monsoon (FIM) season; (b) second inter-monsoon (SIM) season; (c) south-west monsoon (SWM) season; (d) annual temperature; and (e) north-east monsoon (NEM) season. Dashed lines indicated the mean value of the temperature. "},{"text":"Figure 8 . Figure 8. Shift in the probability distribution of seasonal and annual mean temperature during 1946-1970 (Non-Global Warming Period) and 1971-2020 (Global Warming Period) in the North and North-central VTCS zone: (a) first inter-monsoon (FIM) season; (b) second inter-monsoon (SIM) season; (c) south-west monsoon (SWM) season; (d) annual temperature; and (e) north-east monsoon (NEM) season. Dashed lines indicated the mean value of the temperature. Probability distributions for seasonal and annual rainfall in the NGWP (1946 to 1970) and in the two consecutive twenty-five-year periods (1971-1995 and 1996-2020) during the GWP in the North and North-central VTCS zone are given in Figure 9. Mean annual and seasonal (except SWM) rainfall decreased during the 1971-1995 period, but it increased for the most recent GWP (1996-2020) relative to NGWP (1946-1970). The mean annual rainfall decreased by 170 mm and increased by 47 mm in the period 1971-1995 and 1996-2020, respectively. During the GWP period, mean annual rainfall increased by 218 mm from the 1971-1995 period to the 1996-2020 period. Further, variance in probability distribution increases during the GWP (1971-1995 and 1996 to 2020). Similar patterns are observed for the four monsoon rainfall regimes. However, the North-east Monsoon (NEM) season rainfall pattern in 1971-2020 is more erratic, with extreme events. "},{"text":"Sustainability 2023 , 31 Figure 9 . Figure 9. Anomalies in the probability distribution of seasonal and annual rainfall during 1946-1970 (Non-Global Warming Period) and 1971-2020 (Global Warming Period) in the North and Northcentral VTCS zone: (a) first inter-monsoon (FIM); (b) second inter-monsoon (SIM); (c) south-west monsoon (SWM); (d) annual rainfall; and (e) north-east monsoon (NEM). Dashed lines indicated the mean value of the rainfall. "},{"text":"Figure 9 . 31 Figure 10 . Figure 9. Anomalies in the probability distribution of seasonal and annual rainfall during 1946-1970 (Non-Global Warming Period) and 1971-2020 (Global Warming Period) in the North and Northcentral VTCS zone: (a) first inter-monsoon (FIM); (b) second inter-monsoon (SIM); (c) south-west monsoon (SWM); (d) annual rainfall; and (e) north-east monsoon (NEM). Dashed lines indicated the mean value of the rainfall. Sustainability 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 16 of 31 Figure 10. Projected trends and variability (a) mean annual temperature and (b) mean annual rain-fall in the North and North-central VTCS zone (averaged MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR models), under the two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The range of projected variability is given by the shaded area. "},{"text":"Figure 10 . Figure 10. Projected trends and variability (a) mean annual temperature and (b) mean annual rainfall in the North and North-central VTCS zone (averaged MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR models), under the two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The range of projected variability is given by the shaded area. "},{"text":"Sustainability 2023 , 31 Figure 11 . Figure 11. Potential occurrence localities for minor irrigated and rainfed paddy (Oryza sataiva L.) for Yala and Maha cultivation seasons in Sri Lanka, modelled using the MaxEnt model under the current climate and future climate scenarios. "},{"text":"Figure 11 . Figure 11. Potential occurrence localities for minor irrigated and rainfed paddy (Oryza sataiva L.) for Yala and Maha cultivation seasons in Sri Lanka, modelled using the MaxEnt model under the current climate and future climate scenarios. "},{"text":"31 Figure 13 . Figure 13. Predicted area suitability changes for minor irrigated and rainfed paddy cultivation in Yala (a,c) and Maha (b,d) cultivation seasons for all of Sri Lanka (a,b) and within the North and North-central VTCS zone (c,d), compared to the current extent. The percentage denotes the portion of the suitability area change, increase (+), decrease (−) and no change (0). "},{"text":"Figure 13 . Figure 13. Predicted area suitability changes for minor irrigated and rainfed paddy cultivation in Yala (a,c) and Maha (b,d) cultivation seasons for all of Sri Lanka (a,b) and within the North and North-central VTCS zone (c,d), compared to the current extent. The percentage denotes the portion of the suitability area change, increase (+), decrease (−) and no change (0). "},{"text":"Figure 14 . Figure 14. Spatiotemporal dynamics of climate suitability for minor irrigated and rainfed paddy cultivation across the North and North-central VTCS zone in Maha cultivation season under the future climate scenarios. "},{"text":"Figure 14 . Figure 14. Spatiotemporal dynamics of climate suitability for minor irrigated and rainfed paddy cultivation across the North and North-central VTCS zone in Maha cultivation season under the future climate scenarios. "},{"text":"Figure 15 . Figure 15. Spatial shifts of suitability areas for paddy cultivation between current and future sui bility classes in the Maha cultivation season of the North and North-central VTCS zone. The p centages in parentheses denote the portion of the suitability area change, increase (+) and decrea (−) of a particular class in future climate scenarios compared to the current climate suitability. "},{"text":"Figure 15 . Figure 15. Spatial shifts of suitability areas for paddy cultivation between current and future suitability classes in the Maha cultivation season of the North and North-central VTCS zone. The percentages in parentheses denote the portion of the suitability area change, increase (+) and decrease (−) of a particular class in future climate scenarios compared to the current climate suitability. "},{"text":"Table 1 . Environmental variables used in MaxEnt modelling. Category Source Variable Symbol Climatic Season Cultivation Season Unit CategorySourceVariableSymbolClimatic SeasonCultivation SeasonUnit   Rainfall/Temperature (March) rf03/tm03 FIM  mm/ • C Rainfall/Temperature (March)rf03/tm03FIMmm/ • C   Rainfall/Temperature (April) rf04/tm04 FIM  mm/ • C Rainfall/Temperature (April)rf04/tm04FIMmm/ • C   Rainfall/Temperature (May) rf05/tm05 SWM  mm/ • C Rainfall/Temperature (May)rf05/tm05SWMmm/ • C  WorldClim-Global Climate Data Rainfall/Temperature (June) Rainfall/Temperature (July) rf06/tm06 rf07/tm07 SWM SWM Yala mm/ • C mm/ • C WorldClim-Global Climate DataRainfall/Temperature (June) Rainfall/Temperature (July)rf06/tm06 rf07/tm07SWM SWMYalamm/ • C mm/ • C Agro- http: Rainfall/Temperature (August) rf08/tm08 SWM  mm/ • C Agro-http:Rainfall/Temperature (August)rf08/tm08SWMmm/ • C climatological //www.worldclim.org/ (accessed on Rainfall/Temperature (September) rf09/tm09 SWM  mm/ • C climatological//www.worldclim.org/ (accessed onRainfall/Temperature (September) rf09/tm09SWMmm/ • C  1 September 2021) Rainfall/Temperature (October) rf10/tm10 SIM  mm/ • C 1 September 2021)Rainfall/Temperature (October)rf10/tm10SIMmm/ • C   Rainfall/Temperature (November) rf11/tm11 Rainfall/Temperature (December) rf12/tm12 SIM NEM Maha mm/ • C mm/ • C Rainfall/Temperature (November) rf11/tm11 Rainfall/Temperature (December) rf12/tm12SIM NEMMahamm/ • C mm/ • C   Rainfall/Temperature (January) rf01/tm01 NEM  mm/ • C Rainfall/Temperature (January)rf01/tm01NEMmm/ • C   Rainfall/Temperature (February) rf02/tm02 NEM  mm/ • C Rainfall/Temperature (February)rf02/tm02NEMmm/ • C   Slope (Inclination angle) slope - - Degrees Slope (Inclination angle)slope--Degrees Agroecological NRMC, Sri Lanka Soil soil - - N/A AgroecologicalNRMC, Sri LankaSoilsoil--N/A   Elevation dem - - m Elevationdem--m  SWM = south-west monsoon season; NEM = north-east monsoon season; FIM = first inter-monsoon season; SWM = south-west monsoon season; NEM = north-east monsoon season; FIM = first inter-monsoon season;  SIM = second inter-monsoon season; Yala = minor cultivation season of the dry zone; Maha = major cultivation SIM = second inter-monsoon season; Yala = minor cultivation season of the dry zone; Maha = major cultivation  season of the dry zone; NRMC = Natural Resources Management Centre.   season of the dry zone; NRMC = Natural Resources Management Centre.  "},{"text":"Table 2 . The summary results of Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope test analysis. Mean annual temperature-RCP4.5 0.7307710 0.00 0.02 °C/year Mean annual temperature-RCP4.50.73077100.000.02 °C/year  "},{"text":"Table 2 . The summary results of Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope test analysis. Time Series Climate Data Kendall's Tau p-Value Sen's Slope Time Series Climate DataKendall's Taup-ValueSen's Slope Mean annual temperature-RCP4.5 0.7307710 0.00 0.02 • C/year Mean annual temperature-RCP4.50.73077100.000.02 • C/year Mean annual temperature-RCP8.5 0.8370324 0.00 0.03 • C/year Mean annual temperature-RCP8.50.83703240.000.03 • C/year Mean annual rainfall-RCP4.5 0.2560179 0.00 2.06 mm/year Mean annual rainfall-RCP4.50.25601790.002.06 mm/year Mean annual rainfall-RCP8.5 0.3435347 0.00 2.90 mm/year Mean annual rainfall-RCP8.50.34353470.002.90 mm/year 3.3. Changes in Future Climate Suitability Areas   3.3. Changes in Future Climate Suitability Areas  "},{"text":"Table 3 . Results of accuracy assessment of the paddy (Oryza sativa L.) model. Accuracy Measure Value Accuracy MeasureValue AUC 0.763 AUC0.763 TSS 0.441 TSS0.441 Sensitivity 0.832 Sensitivity0.832 Specificity 0.609 Specificity0.609  "},{"text":"Table 4 . Area suitability for minor irrigated and rainfed paddy cultivation in Yala and Maha cultivation seasons in Sri Lanka and the North and North-central VTCS zone under the current climate and future climate scenarios.   Area (km 2 )  2050 (Medium-Term)   2070 (Long-Term)  Area (km 2 )2050 (Medium-Term)2070 (Long-Term) Suitability Area of Interest under Current Climate Area (km 2 ) under RCP4.5 Area (km 2 ) under RCP8.5 Area (km 2 ) under RCP4.5 Area (km 2 ) under RCP8.5 SuitabilityArea of Interestunder Current ClimateArea (km 2 ) under RCP4.5Area (km 2 ) under RCP8.5Area (km 2 ) under RCP4.5Area (km 2 ) under RCP8.5   Yala Maha Yala (%) Maha (%) Yala (%) Maha (%) Yala (%) Maha (%) Yala (%) Maha (%) YalaMahaYala (%)Maha (%)Yala (%)Maha (%)Yala (%)Maha (%)Yala (%)Maha (%) High Sri Lanka Study area 3696 0 11,320 139 3682 (−0.38%) 0 (0.00%) 11,033 (−2.54%) 16 (−88.49%) 3965 (+7.28%) 0 (0.00%) 9665 (−14.62%) 25 (−82.01%) 4062 (+9.90%) 0 (0.00%) 9718 (−14.15%) 67 (−51.80%) 4122 (+11.53%) 0 (0.00%) 9502 (−16.06%) 60 (−56.83%) HighSri Lanka Study area3696 011,320 1393682 (−0.38%) 0 (0.00%)11,033 (−2.54%) 16 (−88.49%)3965 (+7.28%) 0 (0.00%)9665 (−14.62%) 25 (−82.01%)4062 (+9.90%) 0 (0.00%)9718 (−14.15%) 67 (−51.80%)4122 (+11.53%) 0 (0.00%)9502 (−16.06%) 60 (−56.83%) Moderate Sri Lanka Study area 7046 0 20,957 4333 6385 (−9.38%) 0 (0.00%) 20,855 (−0.49%) 4865 (+12.28%) 6031 (−14.41%) 0 (0.00%) 17,992 (−14.15%) 3532 (−18.49%) 6646 (−5.68%) 0 (0.00%) 18,403 (−12.19%) 3055 (−29.49%) 6160 (−12.57%) 0 (0.00%) 17,201 (−17.92%) 3220 (−25.69%) ModerateSri Lanka Study area7046 020,957 43336385 (−9.38%) 0 (0.00%)20,855 (−0.49%) 4865 (+12.28%)6031 (−14.41%) 0 (0.00%)17,992 (−14.15%) 3532 (−18.49%)6646 (−5.68%) 0 (0.00%)18,403 (−12.19%) 3055 (−29.49%)6160 (−12.57%) 0 (0.00%)17,201 (−17.92%) 3220 (−25.69%) Low Sri Lanka Study area 14,691 1665 22,772 5816 14,096 (−4.05%) 1537 (−7.69%) 23,225 (+1.99%) 5412 (−6.95%) 13,532 (−7.89%) 824 (−50.51%) 25,448 (+11.75%) 6735 (15.80%) 14,010 (−4.64%) 511 (−69.31%) 26,664 (+17.09%) 7105 (+22.73%) 14,316 (−2.55%) 807 (−51.53%) 25,643 (+12.61%) 6889 (+19.31%) LowSri Lanka Study area14,691 166522,772 581614,096 (−4.05%) 1537 (−7.69%)23,225 (+1.99%) 5412 (−6.95%)13,532 (−7.89%) 824 (−50.51%)25,448 (+11.75%) 6735 (15.80%)14,010 (−4.64%) 511 (−69.31%)26,664 (+17.09%) 7105 (+22.73%)14,316 (−2.55%) 807 (−51.53%)25,643 (+12.61%) 6889 (+19.31%) Very Sri Lanka 39,061 9334 40,226 (+2.98%) 9388 (+0.58%) 41,038 (+5.06%) 11,463 (+22.81%) 39,788 (+1.86%) 9721 (+4.15%) 39,966 (+2.32%) 12,215 (+30.87%) VerySri Lanka39,061933440,226 (+2.98%)9388 (+0.58%)41,038 (+5.06%)11,463 (+22.81%)39,788 (+1.86%)9721 (+4.15%)39,966 (+2.32%)12,215 (+30.87%) low Study area 8649 26 8773 (+1.43%)        lowStudy area8649268773 (+1.43%)  "},{"text":"Table 5 . Spatiotemporal dynamics between climate suitability classes across the and Northcentral VTCS zone in Maha cultivation season under the future climate scenarios. The percentages in parentheses denote the portion of the change in relation to the extent of current suitability.   2050  2070  20502070 Suitability Change Category (Medium-Term) Area (km 2 ) under Area (km 2 ) under (Long-Term) Area (km 2 ) under Area (km 2 ) under SuitabilityChange Category(Medium-Term) Area (km 2 ) under Area (km 2 ) under(Long-Term) Area (km 2 ) under Area (km 2 ) under   RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5RCP8.5RCP4.5RCP8.5  Contraction 12 (46.15%) 12 (46.15%) 9 (34.62%) 12 (46.15%) Contraction12 (46.15%)12 (46.15%)9 (34.62%)12 (46.15%) Very low Expansion 9 (34.62%) 10 (38.46%) 72 (276.92%) 133 (511.54%) Very lowExpansion9 (34.62%)10 (38.46%)72 (276.92%)133 (511.54%)  Constant 14 (53.85%) 14 (53.85%) 16 (61.54%) 14(53.85%) Constant14 (53.85%)14 (53.85%)16 (61.54%)14(53.85%)  Contraction 1399 (24.05%) 632 (10.87%) 343 (5.90%) 373 (6.41%) Contraction1399 (24.05%)632 (10.87%)343 (5.90%)373 (6.41%) Low Expansion 994 (17.09%) 1550 (26.65%) 1632 (28.06%) 1446 (24.86%) LowExpansion994 (17.09%)1550 (26.65%)1632 (28.06%)1446 (24.86%)  Constant 4418 (75.96%) 5185 (89.15%) 5473 (94.10%) 5443 (93.59%) Constant4418 (75.96%)5185 (89.15%)5473 (94.10%)5443 (93.59%)  Contraction 965 (22.27%) 1506 (34.76%) 1658 (38.26%) 1476 (34.06%) Contraction965 (22.27%)1506 (34.76%)1658 (38.26%)1476 (34.06%) Moderate Expansion 1518 (34.55%) 705 (16.27%) 380 (8.77%) 363 (8.38%) ModerateExpansion1518 (34.55%)705 (16.27%)380 (8.77%)363 (8.38%)  Constant 3368 (77.73%) 2827 (65.24%) 2675 (61.74%) 2857 (65.94%) Constant3368 (77.73%)2827 (65.24%)2675 (61.74%)2857 (65.94%)  Contraction 133 (95.68%) 125 (89.93%) 123 (88.49%) 118 (84.89%) Contraction133 (95.68%)125 (89.93%)123 (88.49%)118 (84.89%) High Expansion 10 (7.19%) 12 (8.63%) 51 (36.69%) 39 (28.06%) HighExpansion10 (7.19%)12 (8.63%)51 (36.69%)39 (28.06%)  Constant 6 (4.32%) 13 (9.35%) 16 (11.51%) 21 (15.11%) Constant6 (4.32%)13 (9.35%)16 (11.51%)21 (15.11%)  "}],"sieverID":"3fb01b82-cb32-4abd-a844-d9de078e7334","abstract":"Consequences of global climate change are predicted to increase risks to crop production in the future. However, the possible broader impact of climate change on social-ecological systems still needs to be evaluated. Therefore, the present study focuses on one such globally important agricultural social-ecological system referred to as the Village Tank Cascade System (VTCS) in the dry zone of Sri Lanka. The VTCS has considerable potential to withstand seasonal climate variability mainly through continuous supply of water by the village tank storage throughout the year. The current study aimed to investigate trends of climate variability and possible impacts on paddy production in the North and North-central VTCS zone. Observed and projected rainfall and temperature data were analysed to evaluate the past variability trends (1970 to 2020) and model future (up to 2100) scenarios of climate variability and trends. Long-term observed rainfall and temperature data (1946 to 2020) were analysed to identify possible anomalies. The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model has been used to predict the situation of future paddy farming (2050 and 2070) under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Six variables that would affect paddy growth and yield quality were used alongside the average monthly rainfall and temperature of two Global Climate Models (MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR). Climate suitability for two paddy cultivation seasons (Yala and Maha) were predicted for current and future climate scenarios. The findings revealed that observed and projected climate changes show considerable deviation of expected rainfall and temperature trends across the VTCS zone. Temperature exhibits warming of approximately 1.0 • C during the declared Global Warming Period (1970 to 2020) in the study area. In addition, there is a trend of significant warming by 0.02 • C/year, RCP4.5 and 0.03 • C/year, RCP8.5 from 1950 to 2100. Rainfall (1970Rainfall ( -2020) )  shows high interannual variability but trends were not significant and less discernible. However, long-term projected rainfall data  analysis detected a significant (p = 0) upward trend (2.0 mm/year, RCP4.5 and 2.9 mm/year, RCP8.5), which is expected to continue up to the end of this century. Further, the study revealed some shifts in temperature towards higher values and positive anomalies in rainfall affecting seasonality and the likelihood of more extreme occurrences in the future, especially during the Maha cultivation season. The MaxEnt model predicts the following under future climate scenarios: (i) spatio-temporal shifts (conversions) in climate suitability for paddy farming in the VTCS zone;"}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"0211e7b14119dc916dac476d2e4f485e","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/66d03c84-db40-437f-ba1f-8ccd9ecbccdf/retrieve"},"pageCount":16,"title":"SSU video episodes and implementation of CSA technology packages in key value chains communications campaign (D24513) Report","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Background","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":36,"text":"Farmers, agribusiness agencies, experts, scientists, climate forecasters and policy makers engage in climate and agri-business knowledge co-production, building on both scientific and local/traditional knowledge, to co-produce and disseminate CSA technology scaling interventions (Tall et al., 2014)."},{"index":2,"size":82,"text":"To meet the needs of intermediaries and users, climate interventions and dissemination channels must be tailored to specific personas, users of climate information: (i) individuals or groups of farmers and agri-business agents using climate data and information to plan and manage risks; (ii) intermediaries and boundary organizations as knowledge brokers create an informed demand for climate information and facilitate its delivery. (iii) people translating information on climate variability and change and its impacts to inform higher level decision making, for example, policymakers."},{"index":3,"size":25,"text":"To scale up climate delivery systems, different platforms (mobile phones, internet, radio, TV) must be integrated, exploiting their benefits, and compensating for limitations\" (Singh, 2016)."},{"index":4,"size":63,"text":"The study by Clarkson et al (2021) highlights the demand for climate information and advice in Zambia, on a range of weather variables for both long-term planning and immediate decisions. High in use were radio, famer cooperatives, lead farmers, and extension services. TV and phone-based programs seemed to reach fewer farmers. Fewer women farmers (<70%) in the Eastern region owned a basic phone."},{"index":5,"size":23,"text":"AICCRA Zambia employed a range of advisory, communication and dissemination innovations, ultimately to improve farm level decision making in adaptation to climate change."},{"index":6,"size":59,"text":"• The Ag-Data Hub\" is a platform, hosted by the government of Zambia, Smart Zambia Institute, that integrates climate and agricultural knowledge and data to support farmer decision making effectively. The design of the platform engages government and private sector to define the needs for information, skills and capacity required to make use of climate information and related services."},{"index":7,"size":95,"text":"• The ISAT tool is being tested and advanced in several agroecological zones in Zambia, to improve context and crop and livestock specific planning and management decisions. Agricultural extension services and researchers engage in context specific interpretation of short-term forecasts, to develop and disseminate advisories for farm level decision making. • Multiple communication channels, across national to sub-national and community level, to mobilize actors at the specific level to reach out, and ultimately disseminate climate and agribusiness relevant information to agri-business entrepreneurs and extension services, and smallholder farmer communities to understand and manage climate risks."},{"index":8,"size":71,"text":"A stakeholder network assessment helped us to critically look at the different levels of actors that can be mobilized to supply climate information and advisory services to farmers and other users (Homann -Kee Tui et al., 2022). Critical stakeholders in the Zambia agri-business ecosystem were identified that media should be engaging with in their outreach efforts. Catalyzing networks through media would help to impact on rural livelihoods more effectively and sustainably."}]},{"head":"CSA technology scaling interventions","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":30,"text":"Climate interventions and dissemination channels engaged actors at multiple levels to stimulate relationships and networks and feedback across these linkages, to deepen and expand delivery with AICCRA partners (Figure 1). "}]},{"head":"National decision makers (Macro-level): Multi-media campaign on climate innovations","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":72,"text":"Featuring national level engagements, investment opportunities and innovations, capacity development in diverse formats contributes to creating an awareness on what enabling conditions are being created for promoting CSA packages. Positioning climate and agribusiness innovation impacts on meso-level enterprises and support services, breaks down barriers and makes their products and services accessible to smallholder farmers. All this catalyses business relations, finance and innovation, and thereby promotes CSA packages, products and services more sustainably."},{"index":2,"size":172,"text":"Agricomm was engaged as a Zambia-based media enterprise with competency in providing agriculture related education to help farmers making decisions. They have shown experience and skills in packaging scientific information into high quality actionable knowledge, leveraging on their relations with the existing agribusiness-ecosystem in Zambia. Following consultation with AICCRA program leads, program specific outputs were defined, and contents covered in print, audio, photo and video-based formats, event coverage and social media posts, to inform stakeholders in Zambia about ongoing activities (Table 1). Munda Make Over was introduced as the first reality TV show of its kind in Zambia, premiered on the Zambia National Broadcast Corporation (ZNBC) targeting smallholder farmers, the early adopting farmers who are better resourced to have access to TV and try out innovations, as well as a wide range of agribusinesses, finance and development partners. The program aimed to scale out agribusiness in Zambia and thereby reach out to many farmers on the ground across the country, being their most important clients and building their capacities in climate-smart agriculture."},{"index":3,"size":47,"text":"The contents are presented as \"Edutainment,\" a farmer presents his/her challenges, agribusiness entrepreneurs and experts demonstrate a set of solutions, the viewers learn through entertainment. The seasonal broadcast covered topics related to climate adaptation and mitigation, gender equality and social inclusion, farm activities relevant across the country."},{"index":4,"size":36,"text":"The TV program of 20 episodes was aired weekly from January to April 2023, in English language (Table 2). The prime airing time was chosen as Sunday afternoons, convenient for women and men to watch TV."},{"index":5,"size":37,"text":"In total, the program featured 30 private sector and development enterprises, showcasing innovations in the fields of cropping, livestock and aquaculture production, soil health, seed quality, mechanization, irrigation, working as cooperatives, marketing, financial literacy and food preparation.  "}]},{"head":"Info-grams for outreach and outcome messages","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":33,"text":"A set of 10 info-graphs with key messages were drafted to illustrate outcomes of the communication and dissemination channel interventions and agribusiness partnerships on uptake of CSA technologies and bundled value chain innovations."},{"index":2,"size":32,"text":"Agricomm was tasked to develop the info-grams based on the structure provided in this chapter, baseline and endline reports and final reports from accelerator partners. The info-gram structure presents each info-gram 1-10. "}]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 1 . Figure 1. Multi-level approach for tailoring communication and dissemination interventions (Source: Homann -Kee Tui et al., 2022). "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"Table 1 . Agricomm-led campaign to accelerate impacts of climate smart agriculture research in Zambia AICCRA Multi-media contents Key messages AICCRAMulti-media contentsKey messages Zambia   Zambia program   program Ag Data • Ag Data Hub as central platform for Position and create awareness AgData• Ag Data Hub as central platform forPosition and create awareness Hub  digitizing and integrating agricultural about climate and agri- Hubdigitizing and integrating agriculturalabout climate and agri-   data collected from key institutions to business innovations data collected from key institutions tobusiness innovations   improve agro-advisory services to crop, livestock and fish farmers • ISAT to generate and disseminate data-driven location-specific advisories to help farmers predict and respond to Provide agribusinesses and support services with the capabilities to generate and use real time weather data improve agro-advisory services to crop, livestock and fish farmers • ISAT to generate and disseminate data-driven location-specific advisories to help farmers predict and respond toProvide agribusinesses and support services with the capabilities to generate and use real time weather data  "},{"text":"Table 2 . Munda Make Over episodes, contents and companies featured. episodes on agribusiness and 1 on climate agro-advisories were aired in Bemba and Nyanja. The timing was also in the late afternoon, when it was conducive for farmers to listen in. The program leveraged on the MMO TV episodes to extend the innovations on climate and agri-business to rural communities in vernacular languages. A selection of the existing TV episodes were translated into audio format, featuring the AICCRA agri-business partners across the various provinces. The program was launched through an interactive event in Eastern Zambia, creating buy in from the local communities and collecting feedback from the diverse participants. -Climate agro-advisories: The short-term seasonal climate forecasts provided by Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) were interpreted by International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) scientists and through a set of questions explained by district agricultural extension experts. The agro-advisories were developed for the selected provinces and disseminated through the community radio. Title and link Title and link  "},{"text":" Table summarizes the community radio stations and listenership.  "}],"sieverID":"05f6f03b-79f1-456d-b2e4-c18c0a812c7f","abstract":""}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"024e77b4810cad561c45548ece14e7c5","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/822e5853-cf8b-435d-a543-be0cab2416a8/retrieve"},"pageCount":14,"title":"Participatory epidemiology in disease surveillance and research","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Introduction","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":36,"text":"Participatory epidemiology (PE) (30) is based on conventional epidemiological concepts but uses participatory methods (6,20) to solve epidemiological problems. It is a practical approach to epidemiology that gives stakeholders a greater role in shaping programmes for:"},{"index":2,"size":8,"text":"-public health (18) -animal health -disease surveillance -research."},{"index":3,"size":122,"text":"The techniques of participatory rural appraisal (PRA) are used to formulate the programme objectives, gather epidemiological data and intelligence, and analyse information. Participatory epidemiology recognises that local people have very rich and detailed knowledge about the animals they keep and the infectious and zoonotic diseases that can gravely affect their livelihoods and endanger human health. Local farmers and livestock owners are often able to describe clinical presentations, epidemiological patterns and principal pathological lesions using a vocabulary of specific disease terms in local languages that correspond to Western clinical case definitions. This body of knowledge has been termed 'existing veterinary knowledge' (EVK) (30). Participatory epidemiology learns from local knowledge, leading to disease control programmes that are both acceptable to their stakeholders and effective."},{"index":4,"size":59,"text":"The PE approach was developed to overcome the constraints in applying conventional epidemiology and formal research in developing countries. Conventional epidemiology can be expensive and logistically complex, producing large quantities of information from formal surveys that are often biased, spatially, behaviourally and logistically (6). Further, as researchers generally do not understand the local context, quantitative information is often misinterpreted."},{"index":5,"size":73,"text":"Participatory methods were first used to approach epidemiological questions in small-scale, communitybased projects, where technical assistants had close contact with livestock-keepers, and needed practical methods of assessing targeted animal health activities within realistic time frames. As experience with EVK and participatory methods increased, veterinary field epidemiologists realised that there was tremendous potential to develop participatory approaches to epidemiology as surveillance, outbreak investigation, and research tools, in a variety of rural and urban settings."},{"index":6,"size":149,"text":"As PE evolved, an innovative participatory methodology for surveillance programmes was developed in response to the needs of the Global Rinderpest Eradication Program (31). This approach is called 'participatory disease searching' and is a form of active surveillance that taps into traditional information networks to track down and diagnose outbreaks of infectious disease. Later, this approach was applied to a broad range of diseases in Pakistan. It helped to clarify the clinical picture for rinderpest, as well as establishing a database on the animal health priorities of livestock owners at the national level (29). The concept of disease searching was broadened to become 'participatory disease surveillance' (PDS). This approach to surveillance is grounded in the definition of surveillance as 'information for action' (36,39), and is now recognised in the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) guidelines for rinderpest surveillance (45) and as an important approach for general surveillance (44)."},{"index":7,"size":167,"text":"Early applications of PE focused on pastoral communities, whose livelihoods were heavily dependent on livestock and who had limited exposure to Western veterinary medicine. Since then, the approach has been extended to a diverse range of communities that includes mixed livestock agriculture systems and even peri-urban and intra-urban livestock production systems. In the case of Pakistan, PE techniques were used to evaluate the size and rinderpest status of the urban buffalo population in Karachi. Most recently, PDS has been applied in Indonesia in rural and urban settings, including Jakarta, one of the most densely populated cities in the world. The purpose of PE and PDS is to enable public health professionals, government officials and local people to work together to appraise, analyse and plan programmes which are appropriate to their particular region. This paper will provide an overview of PE techniques. Subsequently, the authors describe some practical applications of PE and PDS, together with key lessons from those experiences. Lastly, the authors highlight future challenges and directions."}]},{"head":"Overview of participatory epidemiology methods","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":26,"text":"Participatory approaches are based on open communication and transfer of knowledge, using a toolkit of methods guided by some key concepts and attitudes. The methods include:"},{"index":2,"size":49,"text":"-semi-structured interviewing -focus-group discussions -ranking and scoring disease observations -a variety of visualisation (e.g mapping and modelling) and diagramming techniques (e.g. seasonal calendars and historical timelines). These methods can be combined in a number of different ways, depending on the topic under investigation, and result in a combination of:"},{"index":3,"size":8,"text":"-observations from the participants -semi-quantitative scores -quantitative data."},{"index":4,"size":128,"text":"In PE, as in PRA, all information should be validated by cross-checking, using multiple techniques and informants: a process called 'triangulation'. In PE, a basic assumption is that investigators cannot fully anticipate the priorities and problems of the communities they study. This assumption helps to avoid many biases associated with conventional epidemiology approaches. Thus, the process empowers the stakeholders, since they are the ones who identify and describe the problems. This tactic ensures that field approaches are flexible and allow time for the 'discovery' of new information. Practitioners of PE have a respect for all forms of knowledge and a genuine interest in learning from the different points of view of diverse stakeholders. These practitioners are good listeners, who listen with respect but also critically review all information."},{"index":5,"size":102,"text":"Listening to, learning and understanding traditional knowledge is the key to good research and assessments at the community level. A primary objective of PE is to gain an overview of the range of local disease terms and how farmers process and perceive information. For example, the Somalis have a very detailed grasp of disease vectors and have local names for most species important in disease transmission. Like the Somalis, the Karamojong of Uganda are pastoralists, but do not associate insects or arthropods with specific diseases (2). Understanding these factors is essential to carrying out disease investigations and designing control programmes that work."},{"index":6,"size":117,"text":"In many societies, it is difficult to obtain accurate quantitative information through direct questions, such as those used in structured questionnaires, because interviewing may not be a common form of communication. The results of direct questions are often misleading because they pressure people into providing an answer. Such results should be validated by using multiple approaches and informants (19). Examples include questions about herd size, and morbidity and mortality due to specific diseases. Alternatively, livestock owners usually feel quite comfortable talking about specific animals and can give a detailed history of individual animals and their offspring (13). This approach can be used to build up detailed information on a herd, which allows accurate calculation of quantitative indicators."},{"index":7,"size":124,"text":"Sampling methodologies used in PE include the selection of key informants and a risk-based approach to identifying sampling sites (37). Random sampling is sometimes employed when participatory approaches are used to make quantitative estimates. Key informants are individuals or groups who are likely to have well-developed knowledge or an especially relevant perspective of the problem under investigation. In risk-based sampling, the information on the target disease available from key informants and secondary sources is used to create a qualitative risk map. Initial sampling sites are selected from the risk map, and subsequent sampling sites are based on the trail of information revealed by the study. As information is collected, the risk map and overall study hypothesis are refined in a process of iterative analysis."},{"index":8,"size":114,"text":"The core method in the toolkit for PE is the semistructured interview. This is when interviewers use checklists of topics to be covered rather than a structured questionnaire (Fig. 1). The interviewer introduces a topic using an open-ended question. An example of an openended question would be: 'What diseases affect your chickens?' This allows the respondents to provide direction to the interview and describe problems in their own terms. Once the participants have noted and described problems, the team can then ask probing questions to fill in any gaps and to check for internal consistency within the individual accounts. A number of ranking and scoring techniques exist, including: -simple ranking -pair-wise ranking -piling techniques."},{"index":9,"size":106,"text":"One main group of techniques uses a process called 'proportional piling' (21). In this technique, the participants are given a number of counters (for example, 100 beans) and asked to divide them into piles, representing a number of categories, by agreed criteria. For example, the community may have identified five principal poultry diseases. Respondents could then be asked to divide the pile into five smaller piles, to represent the relative impact of each disease on their livelihood. Proportional piling techniques can be adapted to study issues such as: -disease prevalence and incidence -mortality rates -clinical presentation -epidemiological risk factors -disease impact -the efficacy of disease interventions."}]},{"head":"Fig. 1 Interviews can be conducted with small groups or individual key informants","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":94,"text":"In this case, a participatory disease surveillance team leader is interviewing a traditional healer, siana, in Pakistan. Note the position and body language of the interviewer. Rather than seeking to extract information at source, his posture reflects an attitude of respect and an interest in learning Another visual scoring method which compares at least two indicators is matrix scoring, where a two-dimensional grid is used to score items by at least two sets of categories. The researcher can use the completed matrix in short, semi-structured interviews to follow up interesting results and cross-check information."},{"index":2,"size":74,"text":"Among visualisation techniques, seasonal calendars, mapping and diagramming exercises are the most common. Participatory mapping is one of the most useful tools in the PE toolkit, and is often a good technique to start with, as it involves several people and can stimulate much discussion and enthusiasm. It can be used to gain an overview of: -the spatial distribution of community resources -herding patterns -livestock population contact structure -the spatial distribution of risk factors."},{"index":3,"size":69,"text":"In PDS, participatory mapping has been used to map disease outbreaks, both spatially and temporally, within rural and urban communities. Respondents indicate the locations and dates of clinical disease events and describe the sequence of events, which reflects how diseases spread through communities and populations. This can highlight key risk factors and important epidemiological information, as well as contributing data to aid in estimating transmission parameters for disease models."},{"index":4,"size":104,"text":"Participatory disease surveillance requires a clinical case definition tailored to the specific disease which will capture all cases of the disease and which is linked to laboratory diagnostic criteria for confirmation. For diseases known to be endemic, this involves detecting events which fit the clinical case definition, followed by an appropriate fieldbased diagnostic test. For diseases where field diagnostics are not available, or for suspected disease introductions into non-endemic areas, the diagnostic protocol includes appropriate sample collection and confirmation from an accredited diagnostic laboratory. For reportable diseases, these case definitions must be endorsed by the relevant veterinary authority and consistent with OIE guidelines (45)."}]},{"head":"Examples of applications","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":134,"text":"Early applications of PE focused on needs assessment when establishing community-based animal health programmes. Here, participatory assessments were used to identify the range of diseases known to farmers and livestock owners and to indicate their disease status in project areas. An important step in this process is to rank diseases in terms of their importance to livestock owner' s livelihoods (15,22,32). Participatory epidemiology assessments were also used to gain an appreciation of local knowledge, attitudes and practices in order to design community animal-health-worker training programmes that built on EVK. Out of these applications, tools and methods were developed for semi-quantitative or relative estimates of incidence (17,33). These assessments were also used to understand the way in which communities approached decision-making, so that animal health programmes would reinforce local institutions and have greater local acceptance."},{"index":2,"size":224,"text":"Within the community-based animal health programmes of the Pan African Rinderpest Campaign, it rapidly became apparent that pastoralists had an excellent grasp of the dynamics of rinderpest in local populations and could direct disease surveillance experts to rinderpest foci. This approach made several important contributions to rinderpest eradication. First, it identified the final foci of infection in remote areas for eradication efforts. As this approach fully described the outbreaks and community context, it gave immediate guidance on how best to control the disease. Lastly, PDS became an important tool in confirming the absence of clinical disease in a number of countries as part of the process of certification of rinderpest eradication (24,44). Participatory disease surveillance programmes were established in Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Uganda and the Somali ecosystem, as well as in Pakistan, within the context of rinderpest programmes co-ordinated by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Interafrican Bureau for Animal Resources of the African Union (AU-IBAR). These early experiences led to the establishment of a few expert teams at the national level who could be dispatched to high-risk areas to carry out targeted disease searches. One of the challenges of these programmes was sampling methodology. There was a tendency on the part of national governments to favour survey methods rather than embrace the investigatory approach that is at the heart of PDS."},{"index":3,"size":69,"text":"As experience with PE increased, this approach was soon being used to solve complex epidemiological questions (35), including unravelling the underlying aetiology of challenging clinical syndromes (4,5). It was also employed, in combination with quantitative techniques, to develop epidemiological models of disease transmission (25,26,27). Table I summarises PDS programmes from around the world, their target diseases, and the number of experts, trainers and master trainers developed by each programme."},{"index":4,"size":33,"text":"In Pakistan, PDS was of prime importance to the Global Rinderpest Eradication Program, supplying information to support an application for OIE accreditation of freedom from the disease. However, PDS went well beyond this."},{"index":5,"size":140,"text":"Information on the importance of a number of other diseases to farmers contributed significantly to formulating animal health policies. These diseases included those which were well known to be major problems or notifiable to the OIE (for example, foot and mouth disease [FMD], peste des petits ruminants [PPR] and haemorrhagic septicaemia [HS]), as well as those which were not generally recognised as priorities (post-parturient haematuria, for example). Over all, farmers in Pakistan ranked HS as the most important disease. This was a surprise to many decision-makers, who believed that FMD had the greater economic impact. Farmers indicated that they could cope with the chronic production losses caused by FMD, but not the catastrophic impact of HS. Thus, PDS showed that farmers took a more holistic view and considered economic impact, risks and coping mechanisms when they prioritised diseases (Fig. 2)."},{"index":6,"size":181,"text":"As a result of the Pakistan experience, PDS was used to strengthen disease surveillance in Central Asian countries participating in an FAO regional project to enhance epizootic disease control. Programmes were established in Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and regional training workshops were used to introduce PDS to these and the other countries involved (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan). Training was provided The Central Asia programme was primarily designed to provide disease information to prove freedom from rinderpest, and did this well by showing clearly that rinderpest was not among the animal health problems that farmers were experiencing. These results were subsequently confirmed by laboratory serological studies. Since 2005, a total of 700 villages have been visited by PDS teams in Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, with 11,031 farmers participating. Participatory disease surveillance data have shown the importance and relative prevalence of several major diseases, including OIEnotifiable diseases such as PPR and FMD. The results from proportional piling exercises to examine the relative prevalence and importance of PPR to the livelihoods of livestock owners in selected districts of Tajikistan are presented in Figure 3."},{"index":7,"size":71,"text":"As previously, the Central Asia programme was received with scepticism by the veterinarians in the countries involved. However, through training and field experience, veterinarians rapidly became enthusiastic supporters of the approach as they began to recognise the professional stimulation, improvements to the veterinary farmer relationship, and disease intelligence gained. Although modest in terms of investment, the Central Asia programme has proven to be valuable in enhancing national and regional disease intelligence."},{"index":8,"size":135,"text":"To aid in responding to and controlling outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Indonesia, the concept of PDS has been extended to include participatory disease response (PDR) teams, trained in social mobilisation techniques (34). The explicit objective of the programme is to implement rapid response tied to early detection through active surveillance -i.e. identifying and quickly containing outbreaks in backyard and small-scale commercial operations (3). As HPAI cases in birds are a potential human health risk, the Indonesian Ministry of Health has also launched a participatory surveillance programme in which medical District Surveillance Officers (DSO) will closely coordinate human participatory surveillance activities with veterinary PDS. The DSOs from the Ministry of Health will actively search for human cases, using risk-based sampling by searching poultry outbreak sites identified by the Ministry of Agriculture teams."},{"index":9,"size":104,"text":"In 2006, the veterinary programme was first implemented in Indonesia as a pilot programme in 12 districts. However, it was rapidly expanded to cover 159 districts, comprising the islands of Java and Bali, as well as two provinces of Sumatra, by May 2007. When the programme was initiated, the extent of HPAI infection was not known. Participatory disease surveillance enhanced the sensitivity of the national surveillance system, and within three months of establishing a joint PDS and response (PDS/R) programme it became clear that HPAI was circulating unimpeded in backyard poultry, with several outbreaks detected per district per month in the pilot areas. Field "}]},{"head":"Fig. 2 A decision tree representing the potential outcomes when a Pakistani farmer has five United States dollars USD to invest and must choose between vaccinating four buffaloes against haemorrhagic septicaemia or foot and mouth disease","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":177,"text":"The example assumes that foot and mouth disease (FMD) would cause a 10% production loss, but an outbreak of haemorrhagic septicaemia (HS) would cause 50% mortality in an unprotected herd. Note that if the farmer chooses FMD control instead of HS control, he or she runs a risk of catastrophic losses in return for only modest gains diagnosis of HPAI in Indonesia is based upon detecting active outbreaks that meet the definition of a 'sudden death outbreak' and which return positive results for the Anigen ® type A influenza rapid test. Within the first 12 months of operation, the PDS/R programme detected 800 HPAI disease events (16). The large number of outbreaks detected by the PDS teams overwhelmed the response capacity of the district animal health infrastructure, and led to recognition of the need to re-evaluate the national control strategy. Active HPAI events detected by Indonesian PDS practitioners in January 2007 are shown in Figure 4. A total of 236 HPAI events, confirmed by rapid test, were found in 49 of 121 districts during this one month."}]},{"head":"Lessons learned","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":76,"text":"A key lesson learned from all PE and PDS experiences is that decision-makers can rapidly gain a clear and accurate picture of the disease status of their countries, and the priorities of livestock owners (24). Personnel involved in PDS programmes develop new relationships with and respect for farmers and their knowledge. Participatory epidemiology has achieved significant institutional change, leading to revitalised animal health services, which are now more customer oriented, in Pakistan and other countries (16,28)."},{"index":2,"size":68,"text":"As the PE approach was extended from focused, nongovernmental activities to mainstream, public-sector surveillance and response programmes, a number of challenges were encountered. Decision-makers, who were not at first trained in participatory approaches, tended to see PE and PDS as 'just another' survey methodology. This led to the development of the first training workshops for decision-makers, to help these managers use PE and PDS information directly and appropriately."},{"index":3,"size":235,"text":"To develop capacity for PDS an iterative training process has been used to build on and refine concepts using a guided experiential learning process. Staff are first trained in field applications of PE and then given field assignments As programmes expanded from involving a few expert teams to developing dozens and, more recently, hundreds of teams, methods of data recording needed to be developed that preserved the participatory nature of the programme but allowed for analysis at the national level. One of the key strengths of PE is the open-ended approach, which allows livestock owners to express information within the context of their own knowledge systems. When this information is coded into a database using a structured list of options, much of the value of the information is lost. On the other hand, key information, such as outbreak co-ordinates and test results, need to be recorded in a coherent, easily analysed system. With PDS, the best solution to date has been a simple record form created for the Pakistani programme, which covers one side of a single page. In Indonesia, a much larger recording format was created to try to capture more information in the database and facilitate national analysis. However, the task of data entry proved overwhelming as the number of records reached into the tens of thousands. Elaborate record forms also tend to lead to the degeneration of PE into ordinary questionnaire surveys."},{"index":4,"size":125,"text":"The starting point in building a PE programme is to establish the objectives, framework and resources required for the programme. This requires assessing the national context and gaining agreement from decision-makers on what is expected from the programme, which leads to the preparation of a work plan and budget. Thus, the first step is for a PE expert to carry out a rapid assessment of existing veterinary knowledge, the disease situation and existing national surveillance and research capacity. This information is the basis for designing the overall programme, and also enables the training programme to be adapted to the local context. It is important to bear in mind that, in decentralised government systems, decisionmakers must be involved at the national and regional/local levels of government."},{"index":5,"size":160,"text":"The use of participatory methods requires considerable problem-solving skills and the ability to be adaptable. It is not just knowledge; it is learned behaviour. For this reason, experiential learning approaches, based on participation and supervised field practice, are crucial and learning from colleagues is part of the process. The quality of a PDS programme depends directly on the skills of the personnel. Participatory disease surveillance is a form of active surveillance that should be integrated into national surveillance systems. Data generated by PDS should be maintained as part of a single national database that is consistent with OIE standards and allows transparent and timely reporting of important diseases. All surveillance systems should include objective monitoring and evaluation (including real-time analysis of data quality) to detect anomalies in the system (24). Including this element of accountability in the system will allow national Veterinary Services to find problems early, as well as assure international partners of the reliability of national surveillance reports."},{"index":6,"size":99,"text":"In addition, PDS is highly sensitive, allowing the detection of hard-to-find disease foci. This level of sensitivity must be linked to a laboratory case definition which increases the specificity of the overall case-finding methodology. The clinical case definition is syndromic and identifies a subset of diseases thus casting a broad net to capture suspect events for further investigation. It is the function of fieldbased rapid tests and laboratory confirmation to provide the specificity. The early detection of disease problems must also be linked to rapid disease-response protocols, based on a realistic understanding of national human and financial resources, including:"},{"index":7,"size":9,"text":"-culling -control of animal movements -biosecurity -vaccination -information sharing."},{"index":8,"size":59,"text":"Many Veterinary Services assume that farmers should come to their offices to report diseases, thus saving costs to the public sector. However, in developing countries, farmers often have to travel long distances to reach veterinary posts and incur significant costs when reporting disease problems. With the privatisation of most curative services, the incentives for visiting veterinary posts have declined."},{"index":9,"size":78,"text":"As a result, passive surveillance programmes can be insensitive. Even in cases where veterinary offices are near, there is little incentive to visit and passive surveillance alone does not work. The result is under-estimates of disease prevalence, poor prioritisation when deciding policy and, sometimes, complete failure to detect the presence of an important disease. Wholly passive surveillance programmes are examples of animal-healthmarket failure, and point to the need for integrated programmes that include active, passive and laboratorybased methods."},{"index":10,"size":112,"text":"National Veterinary Services recognise the value of good surveillance data and the need to reach out to farmers to obtain relevant data through active surveillance. However, this requires choices on funding priorities and a move away from static infrastructure and costly vehicles to dynamic, field-based networks of personnel who interact with farmers in their own environment. In the PDS programmes in Pakistan, two to three teams covered each province and relied primarily on public transport. These limited teams generated more surveillance data than the rest of the Veterinary Service. Participatory disease surveillance is a proven and flexible approach to active disease surveillance that has been adapted to a wide variety of settings."}]},{"head":"The future","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":49,"text":"The Network for Participatory Epidemiology and Public Health has been established to advance the science of PE through targeted research, capacity building, policy enhancement and practitioner education. Co-ordinated by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), the Network includes the FAO, OIE, AU-IBAR, and nongovernmental organisations experienced in PE methods."},{"index":2,"size":111,"text":"Regional PDS programmes, such as those in East Africa and Central Asia, were the first to bring countries together to develop a harmonised PDS approach to active surveillance. The Network will build on this approach by strengthening existing programmes and establishing new regional programmes to increase regional co-operation in surveillance and disease control. Regionalisation will be advanced by testing field programmes to ensure that regional needs are met, thus leading to effective active surveillance programmes that are harmonised within OIE guidelines. Ultimately, this will lead to co-operative approaches for rapid disease response and better targeting of animal health policies, resulting in improved services to farmers and increased access to international markets."},{"index":3,"size":133,"text":"With the increasing international focus on emerging and re-emerging zoonoses, the need for better integration of veterinary and public health surveillance programmes is clear. In Indonesia, veterinary PDS is being used to target participatory public health surveillance for HPAI to the most at-risk human populations -those whose poultry are experiencing outbreaks of active disease. The field of participatory public health can be expanded through active research to identify public health surveillance and response gaps that can be filled using participatory methods (18). Advocacy for policies that recognise Veterinary Services as integral to public health is needed. Innovative ways to integrate PDS workers and participatory public health practitioners in the field are also required, as well as effective models for integrating public health and veterinary surveillance, including the development of unified 'public health' databases."},{"index":4,"size":17,"text":"Partners in the Network are conducting research to expand the application of PE. Promising new fields include:"},{"index":5,"size":10,"text":"-emerging and re-emerging infectious disease research -participatory risk analysis (12)"},{"index":6,"size":4,"text":"-participatory impact assessment (1)"},{"index":7,"size":8,"text":"-participatory ecosystem health analysis -participatory value chain approaches."},{"index":8,"size":55,"text":"Incorporating participatory approaches to epidemiology into university curricula will have a long-term impact on the veterinary profession. Debate, discussion and consultation continue to further the process of integrating participatory methods with conventional epidemiological approaches and key international guidelines, such as the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code (45) and World Health Organization International Health Regulations (43). "}]},{"head":"L'épidémiologie participative appliquée à la surveillance et à la recherche sur les maladies","index":8,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Resumen","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":195,"text":"La epidemiología participativa es la aplicación de métodos participativos a la investigación epidemiológica y la vigilancia de enfermedades. Se trata de una técnica contrastada, que permite trascender muchas de las limitaciones de que adolecen los métodos epidemiológicos convencionales y que ha sido utilizada para resolver numerosos problemas de investigación y de vigilancia zoosanitaria. La metodología fue definida ante todo con programas a pequeña escala de sanidad animal comunitaria, y aplicada posteriormente a grandes iniciativas internacionales de control de enfermedades. Al poner en práctica el Sistema mundial de erradicación de la peste bovina se adoptó la epidemiología participativa como instrumento de vigilancia y lucha contra la enfermedad. Más tarde se utilizó el mismo método en zonas tanto rurales como urbanas de África y Asia para combatir la fiebre aftosa, la peste de pequeños rumiantes y la influenza aviar altamente patógena. La vigilancia sanitaria participativa ha contribuido sustancialmente a la lucha contra ciertas enfermedades, algunas raras y otras comunes. Los autores pasan revista a las principales aplicaciones de esta técnica y destacan las enseñanzas extraídas de su aplicación sobre el terreno. Además, examinan las dificultades que se perfilan en el horizonte y consideran nuevas líneas de investigación."}]},{"head":"Palabras clave","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":18,"text":"Epidemiología -Epidemiología participativa -Influenza aviar altamente patógena -Peste bovina -Servicios veterinarios -Vigilancia -Vigilancia sanitaria participativa -Vigilancia zoosanitaria -Zoonosis."},{"index":2,"size":121,"text":"internationales de grande envergure pour la prophylaxie des maladies animales. Le Programme mondial d'éradication de la peste bovine a fait appel à l'épidémiologie participative en tant qu'outil de surveillance pour la peste bovine. Par la suite, cette méthode a été utilisée en Afrique et en Asie dans des configurations tant rurales qu'urbaines de lutte contre la fièvre aphteuse, la peste des petits ruminants et l'influenza aviaire hautement pathogène. La surveillance participative contribue de manière significative à la prophylaxie des pathologies rares comme des affections courantes. Les auteurs examinent les principales applications de l'épidémiologie participative en soulignant les leçons tirées de l'expérience sur le terrain. En outre, ils exposent les défis futurs ainsi que les aires nouvelles qui s'ouvrent à la recherche."}]},{"head":"Mots-clés","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":19,"text":"Épidémiologie -Épidémiologie participative -Influenza aviaire hautement pathogène -Peste bovine -Service vétérinaire -Surveillance -Surveillance participative des maladies -Surveillance zoosanitaire -Zoonose."}]}],"figures":[{"text":" Rev. sci. tech. Off. int. Epiz., 26 ( "},{"text":"Fig. 3 Fig. 3Prevalence and importance of peste des petits ruminants in Tajikistan, as estimated by the participatory disease surveillance programme Livestock owners were asked to identify all diseases of small ruminants and then divide one hundred counters into piles, representing the relative prevalence of the disease. In a second exercise, they were asked to divide the counters according to the impact the disease has on their livelihoods. The coloured shading indicates the prevalence scores out of 100 that the farmers gave peste des petits ruminants (PPR). This is an indication of how common the disease is, in relation to other diseases of small ruminants. The vertical bar represents the score that PPR received in terms of its negative impact on the livelihoods of the farmers "},{"text":"Fig. 4 Fig. 4 Detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza by participatory disease surveillance practitioners in Indonesia in January 2007Districts with active participatory disease surveillance (PDS) programmes in January 2007 are shaded. The circles represent the 236 adequately geo-referenced highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) events that met with the definition of a 'sudden death outbreak' and tested positive by the Anigen ® type A influenza rapid test. These events were detected in 49 of 121 districts where interviews were conducted during the month "},{"text":"Table I Summary of national participatory disease surveillance programmes from 2002 to 2007  Country Programme dates* Number of PDS practitioners Administrative Number of level of PDS coverage trainers Number of PDS master trainers Target disease Important diseases for farmers identified by PDS CountryProgramme dates*Number of PDS practitionersAdministrative Number of level of PDS coverage trainersNumber of PDS master trainersTarget diseaseImportant diseases for farmers identified by PDS Pakistan April 2002 - 50 Province 14 7 RP, FMD and PPR FMD, PPR, HS and PPH PakistanApril 2002 -50Province147RP, FMD and PPRFMD, PPR, HS and PPH (24, 25) May 2005       (24, 25)May 2005 Afghanistan June 2005 and       AfghanistanJune 2005 and  February to March 7 Province 0 0 RP, FMD and PPR FMD, PPR, endo-parasites and HS February to March7Province00RP, FMD and PPRFMD, PPR, endo-parasites and HS  2006       2006 Tajikistan June 2005 and 7 Province 0 0 RP, FMD and PPR FMD, BQ, theleriosis and PPR TajikistanJune 2005 and7Province00RP, FMD and PPRFMD, BQ, theleriosis and PPR  October 2006       October 2006 Uzbekistan June 2005 and 7 Province 0 0 RP, FMD and PPR Haemoparasites, brucellosis, UzbekistanJune 2005 and7Province00RP, FMD and PPRHaemoparasites, brucellosis,  October 2006      endo-parasites and pasteurellosis October 2006endo-parasites and pasteurellosis Indonesia (16) January 2006 - 350 District 60 3 HPAI HPAI, ND Indonesia (16)January 2006 -350District603HPAIHPAI, ND  January 2007**       January 2007** Kenya (11) November 2002 - 62 National/ 3 0 RP, HPAI ECF, FMD, RP-like syndrome in Kenya (11)November 2002 -62National/30RP, HPAIECF, FMD, RP-like syndrome in  June 2006  Province/ District    Ruga, in the Garissa district June 2006Province/ DistrictRuga, in the Garissa district Sudan November 2001 - 262 National/NGO 13 0 RP, HPAI PPR, ECF, FMD, MCF and ND SudanNovember 2001 -262National/NGO130RP, HPAIPPR, ECF, FMD, MCF and ND (7, 8, 14, 20, 38, April 2007       (7, 8, 14, 20, 38, April 2007 40, 41, 42)        40, 41, 42) Ethiopia (9) November 2002 - 26 National/NGO 0 0 RP RP-like syndrome at Dolo Odo. Ethiopia (9)November 2002 -26National/NGO00RPRP-like syndrome at Dolo Odo. March 2004 mainly by experts from the Pakistan rinderpest eradication   RP was ruled out but, even with March 2004 mainly by experts from the Pakistan rinderpest eradicationRP was ruled out but, even with March 2004 PDS programme.      follow-up, no confirmatory March 2004 PDS programme.follow-up, no confirmatory  March 2004      diagnosis could be made March 2004diagnosis could be made Uganda (10, 18) October 2003 - 31 District 0 0 RP ECF, CBPP, Helminthosis, Uganda (10, 18) October 2003 -31District00RPECF, CBPP, Helminthosis,  November 2005      Shialukho shekamafugi (bloody November 2005Shialukho shekamafugi (bloody        diarrhoea) diarrhoea) Somalia (23) November 2002 7 National/NGO 0 0 RP  Somalia (23)November 20027National/NGO00RP * Some programmes were not continuous, but involved one or more training periods during the indicated dates MCF: malignant catarrhal fever * Some programmes were not continuous, but involved one or more training periods during the indicated datesMCF: malignant catarrhal fever ** This is a continuing programme, with increasing numbers of trained personnel   ND: Newcastle disease  ** This is a continuing programme, with increasing numbers of trained personnelND: Newcastle disease BQ: black quarter disease     NGO: Non-governmental organisation BQ: black quarter diseaseNGO: Non-governmental organisation CBPP: contagious bovine pleuropneumonia     PDS: participatory disease surveillance CBPP: contagious bovine pleuropneumoniaPDS: participatory disease surveillance ECF: East Coast fever     PPH: post-parturient haematuria ECF: East Coast feverPPH: post-parturient haematuria FMD: foot and mouth disease     PPR: peste des petits ruminants FMD: foot and mouth diseasePPR: peste des petits ruminants HPAI: highly pathogenic avian influenza     RP: rinderpest  HPAI: highly pathogenic avian influenzaRP: rinderpest HS: haemorrhagic septicaemia       HS: haemorrhagic septicaemia  "},{"text":" Training programmes should be in local languages. The training of practitioners should be focused on active learning and personal discovery, and involves in-depth field practice and refresher training. National PDS programmes should include annual National PDS programmes should include annual continuing education for PDS practitioners. When continuing education for PDS practitioners. When developing trainers, a practitioner should have a minimum developing trainers, a practitioner should have a minimum of one year of field experience before entering into a of one year of field experience before entering into a 'training-of-trainers' programme. Not all practitioners will 'training-of-trainers' programme. Not all practitioners will be suitable to become trainers, and only a select few may be suitable to become trainers, and only a select few may become master trainers. become master trainers. As Veterinary Services become more and more As Veterinary Services become more and more decentralised, attention needs to be paid to governance at decentralised, attention needs to be paid to governance at all levels, from national and state level to district and all levels, from national and state level to district and village level. The level of government from which PDS village level. The level of government from which PDS practitioners are drawn depends on the structure of practitioners are drawn depends on the structure of national Veterinary Services and the epidemiology national Veterinary Services and the epidemiology of targeted diseases. Local government should be involved, of targeted diseases. Local government should be involved, to ensure that local needs and concerns do not suffer as to ensure that local needs and concerns do not suffer as national objectives are being met. Where appropriate, both national objectives are being met. Where appropriate, both public and private veterinary practitioners should be part public and private veterinary practitioners should be part of the PDS network. of the PDS network.  "},{"text":" C.C. Jost, J.C. Mariner, P.L. Roeder, E. Sawitri & G.J. Macgregor-Skinner Résumé L'épidémiologie participative consiste à appliquer les méthodes participatives à la recherche épidémiologique et à la surveillance des maladies. Il s'agit d'une technique éprouvée qui a surmonté la plupart des contraintes des méthodes épidémiologiques traditionnelles et permis de résoudre un grand nombre de problèmes dans les domaines de la surveillance et de la recherche en santé animale. Mise au point dans le cadre de petits programmes communautaires de santé animale, cette méthode a été appliquée ensuite dans des initiatives Epidemiología participativa en la vigilancia Epidemiología participativa en la vigilancia de enfermedades y la investigación de enfermedades y la investigación  "}],"sieverID":"05a8428b-88c3-4d32-baae-97b8004a4614","abstract":"Participatory epidemiology is the application of participatory methods to epidemiological research and disease surveillance. It is a proven technique which overcomes many of the limitations of conventional epidemiological methods, and has been used to solve a number of animal health surveillance and research problems. The approach was developed in small-scale, community animal health programmes, and then applied to major international disease control efforts. The Global Rinderpest Eradication Program adopted participatory epidemiology as a surveillance tool for controlling rinderpest. This approach was subsequently used in both rural and urban settings in Africa and Asia, for foot and mouth disease, peste des petits ruminants and highly pathogenic avian influenza. Participatory disease surveillance has made an important contribution towards controlling both rare and common diseases. This paper reviews the principal applications of participatory epidemiology and highlights the lessons learned from field applications. In addition, the authors examine future challenges and consider new areas for research."}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"03ae94d8ceff913861fdf3f49680bddc","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://publications.iwmi.org/pdf/H044084.pdf"},"pageCount":5,"title":"I. THE CHALLENGE OF GROUNDWATER GOVERNANCE IN ASIA Tushaar Shah IWMI-India [ ]","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":146,"text":"750 m of groundwater in agriculture. US, Australia and Europe also use groundwater a lot, but largely for municipal and industrial uses. These too face the challenge of balancing the demand with availability; but the Asian groundwater challenge is altogether different, more serious and intractable. Africa has modest reserves of groundwater; but it still uses only a small fraction of what it has; Africa's challenge is to use its groundwater to promote livelihoods of the poor but in a sustainable manner. Many problems Asia is now facing might have been avertedor, at least, amelioratedif it had acted in good time; Africa has that opportunity to hasten slowly on the path of groundwater-induced agrarian boom, which in many parts of Asia is ready to bust, especially since the geographic spread of the growth in groundwater irrigation has followed human population density rather than resource availability (Figure 1)."},{"index":2,"size":104,"text":"Groundwater irrigation in South Asia and North China has emerged as big business (Table 1). Rapid growth, during the 1970-95 period, of groundwater irrigation in South Asia and North China plains has been at the heart of their agrarian growth; but with growing problems of resource depletion and/or deterioration, Asia's groundwater socio-ecology is under siege. Much concern about the problems of groundwater depletion, pollution and quality deterioration is fueled by worries about their environmental consequences. These are indeed serious; however, equally serious are their consequences for the sustenance of agrarian economies and millions of rural livelihoods that have come to precariously depend upon 1"},{"index":3,"size":210,"text":"The credo of the Australian Groundwater School at Adelaide. This underpins the typical progression of a socio-ecology from a stage where unutilized groundwater resource potential becomes the instrument of unleashing an agrarian boom to one in which, unable to apply brakes in time, it goes overboard in exploiting its groundwater. The Asian groundwater scene is albeit not uniform. In humid alluvial plains of the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin, in Mekong as well as in Yangtzee basin in China, vast reserves of unutilized groundwater resources offer major opportunity for agricultural growth and poverty reduction. The challenge of sustainable groundwater Arid q qq o q q q q Humid qq qq qq Nobody has worked out a complete answer to this question that is also practical and implementable in diverse conditions obtaining in the developing world. But a cursory overview of global experience suggests that strategies used by different countries for sustainable groundwater management are determined inter alia by their stage of economic development.  The findings, based on an extensive region wide groundwater survey will thus, bring out the salient features of groundwater economy and socio-ecology of South Asia. This survey has helped reinforce several facts regarding groundwater irrigation in South Asia and at the same time has helped challenge some myths surrounding it."},{"index":4,"size":121,"text":"Perhaps the most important finding of the survey is the rapid growth of groundwater economy in the last three decades, with peak in 1990s. Thus, 1990s can very well be designated as the decade of \"pump explosion\". This survey corroborates the findings of Agricultural Censuses of India in that the ownership of groundwater assets were less skewed than the ownership of land, making groundwater an ideal mechanism for poverty alleviation in the water abundant areas. That groundwater economy is primarily self financed came as a revelation to many who maintained that huge government subsidies, either direct or indirect, has played an important role in spreading groundwater irrigation. Perhaps, what this indicates is that, government subsidies might not have reached the targeted "}]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 2 : Figure 2: Changing contribution of ground and surface water irrigation in Agricultural Output in India's 252 districts: 1971-73 and 1991-93 "},{"text":" arid alluvial plains of the Indus and Yellow river basins and in the hardrock regions of peninsular India. Many of Asia's coastal aquifers too face serious threat of depletion and saline intrusion. "},{"text":"Figure 4 : Figure 4: A groundwater-based typology of Asia "},{"text":"Figure 5 : Figure 5: South Asia's groundwater boom is still in the making "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"Table 1 : The Size of Asia's Groundwater Economy  A No. of wells (million) 26 0.5 0.8 0.06 3.5 ANo. of wells (million)260.50.80.063.5 B 3 Average output/well (m /hr) 25 100 30 30 41 B3 Average output/well (m /hr)25100303041 C Average hours of 330 1090 1300 205 1134 CAverage hours of330109013002051134  Operation/well/year      Operation/well/year D Price of pump irrigation 1 2 1.5 1.5 0.96 D Price of pump irrigation121.51.50.96  (US $/hr)      (US $/hr) E 3 Groundwater used (km ) 215 54.5 31.2 0.37 106 E3 Groundwater used (km )21554.531.20.37106 F Value of groundwater 8.6 1.1 1.6 0.02 2.5 FValue of groundwater8.61.11.60.022.5  used/year in US billion $      used/year in US billion $  "},{"text":"India Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal Terai North China Punjab Plains Density   "},{"text":"Below 150 150 -300 300 -500 500 -1000 Above 1000 No Data  *Pakistan includes data for   *Pakistan includes data for Pakistan Punjab only Number of Energized Pumps Pakistan Punjab onlyNumber of Energized Pumps   1Dot = 5000 1Dot = 5000 @ Number of pumps in Pakistan   @ Number of pumps in Pakistan multiplied by 3, as average capacity   multiplied by 3, as average capacity of pumps is 3 times that of India   of pumps is 3 times that of India # Pump data not available for   # Pump data not available for Indian states of Rajasthan, Kerala   Indian states of Rajasthan, Kerala and Himachal Pradesh   and Himachal Pradesh 1000 0 1000 Kilometers 100001000 Kilometers  "},{"text":"Figure 1: Density of Po pulation and Distribution of En ergized Pumps in India and Pakistan GROUNDWATER GOVERNANCE IN ASIA The Challenge of Taming a Colossal Anarchy Source: Estimates by IWMI scientists  groundwater irrigation, particularly              groundwater irrigation, particularly in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and              in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China. Here, over the past 50 years,              China. Here, over the past 50 years, public investments and donor funds 60             public investments and donor funds60 have been showered over surface              have been showered over surface irrigation but the bulk of its irrigation and agrarian growth have      1971-73      irrigation but the bulk of its irrigation and agrarian growth have1971-73 been delivered by millions of small 40             been delivered by millions of small40 pumps and wells financed mostly              pumps and wells financed mostly through private farmer investments.              through private farmer investments. New analysis for Indian agriculture,              New analysis for Indian agriculture, which suggests that in the recent 20             which suggests that in the recent20 decades, of the agricultural              decades, of the agricultural productivity of a 'representative' (or              productivity of a 'representative' (or typical) net sown hectare, the portion              typical) net sown hectare, the portion contributed by groundwater 0             contributed by groundwater0 irrigation is very nearly twice 1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 irrigation is very nearly twice121416181101121141161181201221241 contributed by surface irrigation       Districts      contributed by surface irrigationDistricts (Figure 2). This analysis has also              (Figure 2). This analysis has also shown that groundwater 60             shown that groundwater60 development has been spatially              development has been spatially dispersed and even where as canal      1991-93      dispersed and even where as canal1991-93 irrigation projects have created small              irrigation projects have created small islands of affluence leaving large 40             islands of affluence leaving large40 catchment areas poor and deprived.              catchment areas poor and deprived. It is not surprising then that while              It is not surprising then that while canal irrigation projects are seldom 20             canal irrigation projects are seldom20 seen as regional poverty reduction              seen as regional poverty reduction interventions, providing access to              interventions, providing access to groundwater irrigation through              groundwater irrigation through pump subsidies or public tubewell 0             pump subsidies or public tubewell0 programs has been at the centre- 1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 programs has been at the centre-121416181101121141161181201221241 stage of poverty reduction programs       Districts       stage of poverty reduction programsDistricts in South Asia.   % contribution of SWI to Agricultural GDP % contribution of GWI to Agricultural GDP  in South Asia.% contribution of SWI to Agricultural GDP% contribution of GWI to Agricultural GDP This good run that many countries of the world,             This good run that many countries of the world, particularly in Asia, are having with groundwater irrigation            particularly in Asia, are having with groundwater irrigation may soon come to an end. Throughout the world regions            may soon come to an end. Throughout the world regions that have sustainable groundwater balance are shrinking by            that have sustainable groundwater balance are shrinking by the day. Three problems dominate groundwater use:   Stage 2: Agrarian prosperity fired by groundwater  the day. Three problems dominate groundwater use:Stage 2: Agrarian prosperity fired by groundwater depletion due to overdraft; water logging and salinization   irrigation ensues; but institutions and management  depletion due to overdraft; water logging and salinizationirrigation ensues; but institutions and management mostly due to inadequate drainage and insufficient   regimes for orderly and sustainable use of the resource are mostly due to inadequate drainage and insufficientregimes for orderly and sustainable use of the resource are conjunctive use; and pollution due to agricultural, industrial  not in place;        conjunctive use; and pollution due to agricultural, industrialnot in place; and other human activity. Groundwater depletion has major environmental consequences; but it has important economic consequences too. Declining water tables raise energy and capital costs of accessing groundwater to  Stage 3: Early symptoms of groundwater over-draft and quality degradation emerge; but irrigators' interests are well-entrenched and they resist attempts at regulation; and other human activity. Groundwater depletion has major environmental consequences; but it has important economic consequences too. Declining water tables raise energy and capital costs of accessing groundwater toStage 3: Early symptoms of groundwater over-draft and quality degradation emerge; but irrigators' interests are well-entrenched and they resist attempts at regulation; prohibitive levels; in some regions, such as North Gujarat  Stage 4: Advanced state of depletion and deterioration prohibitive levels; in some regions, such as North GujaratStage 4: Advanced state of depletion and deterioration or Baluchistan, entire agrarian economies face serious   that threatens the social and ecological fabric of a region or Baluchistan, entire agrarian economies face seriousthat threatens the social and ecological fabric of a region threat of extinction from the decline of groundwater   leaving immiserizing impacts.      threat of extinction from the decline of groundwaterleaving immiserizing impacts.  "},{"text":"Table 2 : Challenges of Sustainable Groundwater Management Note: No. of dots suggest the magnitude of the challenge  Arid alluvial plains Inter-mountainous valleys Arid alluvial plainsInter-mountainous valleys Humid alluvial plains Coastal plains Humid alluvial plainsCoastal plains Hard rock areas  Hard rock areas  "}],"sieverID":"7309826a-1d30-4daa-a7d3-cd6a7fdc6c04","abstract":""}

data/part_2/03b1476c60e092c5608613481f4aed06.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"03b1476c60e092c5608613481f4aed06","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/9f664e38-7e6a-44b9-bf32-20d684548f28/retrieve"},"pageCount":8,"title":"Appropriate parboiling steaming time at atmospheric pressure and variety to produce rice with weak digestive properties","keywords":["digestibility","gelatinization","paddy","rice varieties","vapor exposure time"],"chapters":[{"head":"","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":316,"text":"syndrome) are more interested in its digestibility (Fuentes-Zaragoza, Riquelme-Navarrete, Sánchez-Zapata, & Pérez-Álvarez, 2010). The latter group of consumers are those who are cautious on controlling their blood glucose level mainly due to diabetes mellitus. The glycemic index, which is the postprandial incremental glycemic area after a test meal, expressed as a percentage of the corresponding area of an equivalent reference meal such as glucose or white bread is commonly used to classify foods based on their postprandial blood glucose response (Goñi, Garcia-Alonso, & Saura-Calixto, 1997;Jenkins et al., 1987). Rice is predominantly composed of starch, which is in turn made up of amylose (linear polymer of αd-glucose units linked by α-1, 4 glycosidic bonds) and amylopectin (branched polymer of αd-glucose units linked by α-1, 4 and α-1, 6 glycosidic bonds). Food products whose starch are slowly digested or resistant to enzyme digestion are preferred by some groups of consumers due to their health-promoting benefits (Fuentes-Zaragoza et al., 2010). Therefore, understanding the factors that favor the development of foods resistant to digestion is gaining a lot of attention worldwide. Earlier attempts led to the concept of starch fractions among which are rapidly digestible starch, slowly digestible, resistant starch (enzyme kinetic rate), and damaged starch (starch structure). Resistant starch is generally divided into three types: type I is starch that is protected in the plant cell, type II is native starch granules found in uncooked starch, and type III is retrograded starch (Englyst, Kingman, & Cummings, 1992). Damaged starch, which is the amount of starch granules that are physically damaged may occur either during the milling or cooking process and is hydrolyzed quickly by enzymes (Marti, Seetharaman, & Pagani, 2010). The size and molecular structure of the starch granules, the amylose:amylopectin ratio, the presence of pores, nonstarchy substances such as proteins, lipids, and phospholipids on the surface of granules, and processing methods have been shown to influence starch digestion."},{"index":2,"size":84,"text":"Several authors have shown that small starch granules hydrolyze faster than larger ones because small granules have a larger specific area (Capriles, Coelho, Guerra-Matias, & Arêas, 2008;Gao, Wong, Lim, Henry, & Zhou, 2015;Kaur, Singh, McCarthy, & Singh, 2007;Tester, Qi, & Karkalas, 2006). Uncooked cereal starches have been reported to show more hydrolysis compared to tuber and legume starches and this has been attributed to the presence of pores on cereal starch granules which facilitates the penetration of enzymes (Dreher, Dreher, Berry, & Fleming, 1984)."},{"index":3,"size":90,"text":"The presence of proteins and lipids on the surface of granules can influence enzyme-binding activity by blocking enzyme active sites (Oates, 1997) and thus reducing starch digestion. In addition, protein-starch interactions may also reduce the rate of digestion. Hu, Zhao, Duan, Linlin, and Wu (2004) showed that starch hydrolysis tended to be quick and complete for low than for intermediate and high amylose rice but other authors have also indicated that rice varieties similar in amylose content differed in starch digestibility and glycemic response in humans (Panlasigui et al., 1991)."},{"index":4,"size":96,"text":"Although raw starch higher in amylopectin hydrolyzes faster than that higher in amylose due to its larger surface area per molecule (Hoover & Zhou, 2003), Lehmann and Robin (2007) indicated that amylopectin packing affected starch hydrolysis with the B-form being more resistant than the A-form because the B-form was made of longer helices that were more stable. Studies on the effect of phosphorus on digestibility have not been reported but phospholipids have been shown to limit starch hydrolysis through the formation of inclusion complexes with amylopectin and amylose (Ahmadi-Abhari et al., 2013;Singh, Dartois, & Kaur, 2010)."},{"index":5,"size":392,"text":"Processing of starch that results in size reduction (grinding), gelatinization (cooking), and lose of granule integrity (extrusion cooking) increases starch digestion because these processes make it easier for enzymes to attack the starch granules (Marti et al., 2010;Singh et al., 2010). Starch retrogradation and resistant starch formation in rice which may occur during the storage of cooked rice under refrigerated conditions have been shown to reduce digestibility and glycemic index (Hu et al., 2004;Mishra, Monro, & Hedderley, 2008). Rice parboiling, which is the hydrothermal treatment of rice, results in partial gelatinization and retrogradation of starch during the steaming, drying, and cooling processes. Chung, Lim, and Lim (2006) indicated that the relative melting enthalpy of rice starch samples was positively correlated to resistant starch and that at similar melting enthalpy, partially gelatinized samples were more resistant to digestion than those retrograded. Larsen, Rasmussen, Rasmussen, and Alstrup (2000) showed that mildly (soaking at ambient water temperature (28-30°C) for approximately 36 hr, steaming of the soaked rice at atmospheric pressure for 25-30 min, followed by drying at ambient temperature) parboiled rice had no effect on glycemic index, whereas severely (soaked at 70-75°C for 4 hr, followed by steaming at 120°C and 1.5 bar (1.5 × 10 5 Pa) for 12 min and then predried at 100°C for 3 min before final drying at room temperature.) parboiled rice reduced glycemic index by 30% relative to the nonparboiled sample. Previously, we showed that rice variety and parboiling steaming time at atmospheric pressure affected the physicochemical and nutritional properties of rice with the possibility of selecting specific varieties and steaming time to achieve desired outcomes. The apparent amylose, total starch, protein and lipid content of the rice varieties: NERICA1, NERICA7, WITA4, and IR841 after parboiling for 5, 15, 25, 35, and 45 min have been reported (Zohoun et al., 2018). However, studies on the effect of the above steaming times and varieties on resistant, damage starch fractions and how these treatments affect postprandial glucose level and digestibility have not been done although such studies will be useful for the identification of varieties and steaming time for the development of rice products that may be beneficial to people suffering from diabetes mellitus. In this study, the effect of parboiling steaming time at atmospheric pressure and variety on resistant starch, damaged starch, and postprandial glycemic response in rats is reported."}]},{"head":"| MATERIAL S AND ME THODS","index":2,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"| Rice varieties and grain production","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":166,"text":"Briefly, two upland NERICA rice varieties (1 and 7) and two sativa (irrigated) varieties (IR841 and WITA4) were obtained from the Genetic Resource Unit at AfricaRice and used for this study. The rice was planted in demonstration plots at AfricaRice station in Cotonou, Benin, in May and harvested in August 2014 using recommended agronomic practices (Saito et al. 2013;Tanaka et al. 2015). Briefly, the fields were double harrowed and well-leveled before planting. For upland varieties, the seeding rate was 2-3 seeds per hill. Three weeks after planting, thinning was done to achieve 1 plant/hill. For irrigated varieties, plants from the nursery were transplanted at a rate of 1 plant/hill. The planting distance for both production systems was 25 by 25 cm, and 100 kg/ha nitrogen phosphorus potassium was applied before planting. Urea (25 kg/ha) was applied after first weeding and second weeding making a total of 50 kg/ha. Harvesting was done when the grain moisture was 20%-22% and dried to a moisture of 14% before storage."}]},{"head":"| Parboiling","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":127,"text":"Parboiling was done using the Grain quality enhancer, Energyefficient and durable Material (GEM) parboiler and procedures (Ndindeng et al., 2015). Briefly, 60 kg paddy of each cultivar was cleaned by winnowing and washing with clean water several times to remove impurities (poorly filled grains, rice plant debris, weed seeds, and soil). The washed paddy was transferred to the GEM soaking tank that was placed on an improved stove and water added to submerge the paddy (15 cm below the water surface). The fire was started, and the temperature of the water used for soaking was monitored until it recorded 85°C. At this temperature (initial soaking temperature), the GEM soaking tank with its contents was taken off the fire using a chain hoist system developed to reduce drudgery."},{"index":2,"size":133,"text":"The setup was left overnight at ambient conditions for 16 hr (soaking time) during which the temperature dropped gradually. The soaked paddy was drained, divided into five equal portions, and steamed for the following preset steaming times: 5, 15, 25, 35, and 45 min based on previous studies (Zohoun et al., 2018). Steaming was done in GEM steaming basket that allows only vapor generated in the tank to contact the soaked paddy. The water in the tank started to produce steam before the soaked paddy in the steaming basket was introduced into the tank, and the tank closed with a lid and this was when the recording of steaming time started. Steaming was terminated at the preset steaming time by immediately removing the paddy from the steaming pot. Parboiling experiments were replicated twice."}]},{"head":"| Drying","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":84,"text":"Steamed paddy was evenly sun-dried on labeled tarpaulins placed on raised cemented surfaces and turned every 30 min. The moisture content of the grains was monitored during drying in a single kernel moisture tester (Kett model, PQ-510). Sun drying was halted when the moisture content was 16%-18% and drying continued in the shade to final moisture content of 14% to avoid rapid drying at this small moisture range that could lead to fissures in the rice grain and increase breakages during milling (Bhattacharya, 1969)."}]},{"head":"| Milling","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":27,"text":"Rice samples were dehusked using a large-scale AGRINDO ® Rice Huller (P.T. Agrindo, Driyorejo, Indonesia) and polished using a largescale SB10D rubber roll mill (Satake-Corporation, Hiroshima, Japan)."}]},{"head":"| Preparation of rice flour","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":41,"text":"For each sample, 5 g of grains was ground to fine powder in a grinder (UDY cyclone mill; Fort Collins, Co., USA) fitted with a fine sieve of 0.5-mm mesh size. The prepared rice flour was used for starch fraction analysis."}]},{"head":"| Starch fractions","index":8,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"| Resistant starch","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":161,"text":"Resistant starch was enzymatically determined using the Megazyme Resistant Starch Assay (K-RSTAR, Megazyme Int. Co., Wicklow, F I G U R E 1 Effect of steaming time on (a) resistant starch, (b) total starch (c), and damaged starch fractions for some popular rice varieties grown in sub-Sahara Africa Ireland) protocol (AOAC method 2002.02 and AACC method 32-40.01). Briefly, 100 mg rice flour sample was hydrolyzed and solubilized in 4.0 ml of 10 mg/ml of pancreatic alpha-amylase containing 3 U/ml of amyloglucosidase by incubating overnight (16 hr) at 37°C in a shaking water bath (Belco, Inc., USA) set at 100 revolutions/ min. Ethanol (4.0 ml, 99% v/v) was added with vigorous stirring on a vortex mixer followed by a series of centrifugations at 2,000 g for 10 min to recover the resistant starch as pellets. The recovered resistant starch pellets were dissolved in KOH (2 ml, 2 mol/L) by stirring on an ice water bath for 20 min using a magnetic stirrer."},{"index":2,"size":108,"text":"Sodium acetate buffer (8.0 ml, 1.2 mol/L, pH = 3.8) was added with continuous magnetic stirring and immediately followed by the addition of amyloglucosidase (0.1 ml, 3,300 U/ml). This mixture was homogenized and incubated in a water bath at 50°C for 30 min with intermittent vortexing. Thereafter, the entire solution was transferred into a 100-ml volumetric flask and volume adjusted to 100 ml with distilled water. An aliquot (3 ml) of this diluted solution was centrifuged at 2,000 g for 10 min. Duplicate 0.1 ml aliquots of the supernatant was transferred into clean tube, GOPOD reagent (3.0 ml) added, and the mixture incubated at 50°C for 10 min."},{"index":3,"size":47,"text":"The absorbance was read at 510 nm against the reagent blank constituted of sodium acetate buffer (0.1 ml, 100 mmol/L, pH = 4.5) and GOPOD reagent (3 ml). Resistant starch (g/100 g \"as is\") was then computed using the Megazyme Mega-Calc ™ sheet for resistant starch (https://secure.megazyme.com/files/Data_Calculator/K-RSTAR_CALC.xls)."}]},{"head":"| Damaged starch","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":234,"text":"The measurement of damaged starch was done with the Megazyme starch damage assay kit (K-SDAM, Megazyme Int. Co., Wicklow, Ireland) protocol (American Association of Cereal Chemist (AACC) approved method 76-32.01 and ICC Method No. 164). Briefly, rice flour sample (100 mg) was weighed into glass test tube, preequilibrated by adding fungal alpha-amylase solution (50 U/ml), and incubated for 5 min in a water bath (Belco, Inc., USA) set at 40°C. Following equilibration, 1 ml of the fungal alpha-amylase solution was added to the rice flour and vortexed for 5 s and then incubated at 40°C for 10 min. Eight milliliter sulfuric acid (2% v/v) was added at the 10th min and vortexed vigorously for 5 s to completely inhibit α-amylase activity. The content of the tube was then centrifuged at 2,000 g for 10 min and 0.1 ml aliquots of the supernatant pipetted in duplicates into a clean test tube. Amyloglucosidase (0.1 ml, 2 U) was added into the tube, vortexed and incubated at 40°C for 10 min to complete the digestion of the disaccharides and trioses to monosaccharides. GOPOD reagent solution (4 ml) was then added into the tubes and into the glucose standard tube and further incubated for 20 min for color development. The absorbance was then read against a blank at 510 nm and the damaged starch of the sample computed using the Megazyme Mega-Calc ™ calculation sheet for starch damage "}]},{"head":"| Postprandial glucose measurement","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":239,"text":"WITA4 and NERICA7 varieties were used for this study because their resistant starch fraction response to steaming time was completely opposed. Resistant starch increased with steaming time for WITA4 but decreased with NERICA7. Six feed formulations based on steaming time replicated twice were produced from each rice variety and used to feed the experimental rats. A total of six male Albino rats (Ratus norvegicus albino) were used for the study. The animals were 2 months old with an average weight of 239 ± 13.5 g. The study lasted for 7 weeks (1 week of adaption and 6 weeks of experimentation). The feed formulation was made by mixing 1 g of rice flour (per variety and per steaming time) with 4 ml of deionized water. The six different rice treatments for each variety were given to the six (repetition) animals using a completely randomized design with each animal receiving all the treatments at the end of the experimental period. After the animals were fed, retro-orbital blood was collected after 0, 30, 90, and 180 min and blood glucose determined spectrophotometrically. Glycemic index was determined as previously described (Goñi et al., 1997;Jenkins et al., 1987) using a 3-hr period with the nonparboiled WITA4 as the reference meal. The study was approved by the ethical committee of the University of Abomey-Calavi, whose guidelines were respected during animal handling at the Laboratory of Cytogenetics, Institute of Applied Biomedical Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin."}]},{"head":"| Statistical analysis","index":12,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":111,"text":"Line plots of resistant, total, and damage starch fractions against steaming time for NERICA1, NERICA7, WITA4, and IR841 were prepared, while bar charts of glycemic index against time after feeding were produced for NERICA7 and WITA4. Multivariate regression analysis was used to study the effect of rice variety and steaming time on resistant starch fraction, damage starch fractions, plasma glucose 30 and 90 min after feeding. Two-way interactions between variety and steaming time for the different dependent variable above were compared using Fisher's least significant difference multiple comparison test followed by ranking. The relationship between resistant starch, damage starch, apparent amylose, protein, lipids, and mineral contents was determined using Pearson correlations."},{"index":2,"size":21,"text":"The statistical program used for the analysis was XLSTAT ™ Premium software for Windows ® version 19.5 (Addinsoft SARL, Paris, France)."},{"index":3,"size":230,"text":"All analyses were done at 5% significance level. Resistant starch increased with steaming time in three of the four varieties (NERICA1, IR841, and WITA4) (Figure 1a) probably due to crystallization of amylose after parboiling as previously reported (Eerlingen, Crombez, & Delcour, 1993;Mishra, Hardacre, & Monro, 2012) or amylose leaching during soaking and steaming (Patindol, Newton, & Wang, 2008). However, for NERICA7, higher amount of resistant starch in nonparboiled compared to parboiled samples indicated more crystallization in nonparboiled samples or the presence of a high amount of type II resistant starch (Englyst et al., 1992). It has been indicated that apparent amylose content was lower in parboiled than the nonparboiled counterpart due to amylose leaching during soaking and gelatinization during steaming (Patindol et al., 2008). Resistant starch correlated positively with apparent amylose content although not significantly (R = .19, p = .10) and amylose content decreased with steaming time as previously reported (Patindol et al., 2008;Zohoun et al., 2018). The rice varieties used in this study were either intermediate amylose or high amylose types (Table S1). NERICA1 and WITA4 recorded similar amounts of total starch, while the same was true for IR841 and NERICA7 (Figure 1b). The above observations suggest that the structure of the starch granules was more important for resistant starch formation in NERICA7, while starch retrogradation was more important for resistant starch formation for NERICA1, IR841, and WITA4."}]},{"head":"| RE SULTS AND D ISCUSS","index":13,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"| Damaged starch","index":14,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":149,"text":"Steaming time and variety influenced damaged starch fraction (F = 31.94; p < .0001) (Table S1). WITA4 steamed for 45 min recorded the highest damaged starch fraction (26.80%), while nonparboiled NERICA1 recorded the least (6.59%). Damaged starch increased with steaming time for all the rice varieties to 25 min and remained stable for three of the varieties while gently decreasing for IR841 (Figure 1c). Starch damage was highest in WITA4 and lowest in NERICA1 and this was true both for damage caused either by milling (steaming time = 0) or by parboiling (Steaming time = 5-45 min). WITA4 had the highest quantity of lipids, while NERICA1 had the least (Table S1). Damaged starch correlated positively with lipid content (R = .65; p < .0001) and ash content (R = .51, p < .0001) and negatively with sodium and total starch content (R = −.39; p < .05) (Table 1)."}]},{"head":"| Postprandial glucose level, glycemic index, and digestibility","index":15,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":72,"text":"Neither steaming time nor variety nor their interaction directly influenced postprandial glucose level and glycemic index in rats (p > .05) (Table 2). However, NERICA7 recorded lower glycemic indices compared to WITA4 during the 3-hr period after feeding except for samples steamed for 5 min (Figure 2). This observation suggested that the starch in NERICA7 was more difficult to digest as compared to that of WITA4 except when steamed for 5 min."},{"index":2,"size":247,"text":"WITA4 was more digestible probably due to the higher quantity of Nonparboiled NERICA7 recorded the lowest postprandial glucose level 90 min after feeding (0.15 g/L), while NERICA7 steamed for 5 min and WITA4 steamed for 35 min recorded the highest (0.54 g/L) (Table 2). Larsen et al. (2000) showed that severely parboiled rice reduced glycemic index by 30% relative to the nonparboiled sample. However, in this study, we did not see a direct link between the severity of parboiling and reduction in glycemic index, rather, specific varieties and parboiling regimes had to be identified to get the required effect on glycemic index. NERICA7 steamed for 35 min recorded low apparent amylose (high amylopectin), low total starch, and high protein content (Table S2 and   S3). The low total starch and high protein in this sample suggest that a larger amount of starch granules in this sample were surrounded by a network of proteins and this could likely reduce F I G U R E 3 Glycemic and digestive properties of (a) NERICA7 and (b) WITA 4 parboiled using different steaming times their digestibility (Jenkins et al., 1987). Furthermore, the 35-min steaming time was the time when the lowest total starch content was recorded for both WITA4 and NERICA7 suggesting that this steaming time provided the conditions for the starch granules in these varieties to undergo structural changes that reduced total starch available for quantification. These structural changes are probably linked to starch-protein interactions but this needs further investigation."},{"index":3,"size":106,"text":"NERICA7 steamed for 35 min recorded both low glycemic and slow digesting properties because the glycemic index was lowest after 120 min and increased steadily up to 180 min after feeding (Figure 3a). Nonparboiled NERICA7 had a high glycemic index and was also rapidly digested. WITA4 steamed for 5 min recorded low digesting properties (Figure 3b) which was, however, higher than that recorded for NERICA7 steamed for 35 min. Differences in digestibility observed between the varieties as a function of steaming time indicate that specific rice varieties and parboiling regimes can be used to obtained end products with desired nutritional value such as low glycemic index. "}]},{"head":"| CON CLUS ION","index":16,"paragraphs":[]}],"figures":[{"text":"( https://secure.megazyme.com/files/Data_Calculator/K-SDAM_ CALC.xls).TA B L E 1 Correlations between starch fractions and nutritional composition of NERICA1, NERICA7, IR841, and WITA4 0001; **p < .001; *p < .05. "},{"text":" Resistant starch fraction was significantly influenced by steaming time and variety (F = 13.10, p < .0001) (Sup. 1). Nonparboiled NERICA7 TA B L E 2 Plasma glucose in rats 30 and 90 min after feeding as influenced by steaming NERICA7 and WITA4 at different parboiling times time-15 0.52 ab Nerica-7*Steaming time-25 0.20 ab NERICA7*Steaming time-25 0.45 ab Wita-4*Steaming time-25 0.17 ab NERICA7*Steaming time-35 0.16 b Nerica-7*Steaming time-0 0.15 b Model goodness of fit R 2 = .35; f = 1.12; P = 0.39 R 2 = .33; F = 1.0; P = .42 MAF, minutes after feeding; Steaming time-0: nonparboiled. *indicates that least square means with different letters are significantly different at 5% level F I G U R E 2 Glycemic index of WITA4 and NERICA7 parboiled at different steaming times recorded in rat 3 hr after feeding and NERICA7 steamed for 25 min recorded the highest (10. 07%) and lowest (2.49%) resistant starch fraction, respectively. The amount of resistant starch present in NERICA7 steamed for 25 min was identical to that in NERICA7 steamed for 15 min and nonparboiled WITA4. "},{"text":" damaged starch recorded compared to NERICA7 as observed bySingh et al. (2010).Zohoun et al. (2018) indicated that NERICA7 recorded high viscosities and still had some ungelatinized starch even after 45 min of steaming, whereas WITA4 was completely gelatinized. Our results are in conformity withChung et al. (2006) who indicated that partially gelatinized samples were more resistant to digestion than those completely retrograded. NERICA7 steamed for 35 min recorded the lowest postprandial glucose level 30 min after feeding (0.16 g/L), while WITA4 steamed for 15, 25, and 35 min and nonparboiled NERICA7 recorded the highest (0.76, 0.91, 0.84, and 0.76 g/L, respectively) (p < .05). "},{"text":" Resistant and damaged starch fractions were influenced by variety and steaming time. Postprandial glycemic response was not directly affected by steaming time and variety. Resistant starch was higher in nonparboiled NERICA7 compared to the parboiled counterparts, whereas the opposite was true for NERICA1, WITA4, and IR841. The structure of starch granules (starch-protein interaction) was suggested as being important for resistant starch formation in NERICA7, while starch retrogradation was important for resistant starch formation in NERICA1, WITA4, and IR841. Reduced amylose played an important role in the formation of resistant starch in NERICA7, while proteins play a protective role in reducing starch damage in rice. The starch in NERICA7 was digested much slower in rats than that from WITA4 mainly because the starch in NERICA7 was not completely gelatinized even after steaming for 45 min. NERICA7 steamed for 35 min recorded the lowest postprandial glucose level 30 min after feeding (0.16 g/L) probably because this sample recorded low apparent amylose, total starch and high protein content facilitating the formation of starch granules that were resistant to digestion. In addition, NERICA7 steamed for 35 min recorded both low glycemic and weak digesting properties. Although this work reinforces the concept of selecting specific varieties and parboiling regimes to achieve desired processing outcomes, more work is needed to conform these results in humans and elucidate the structural characteristics of starch granules of the different parboiling treatments. "},{"text":"  "}],"sieverID":"6367266a-3649-4469-8c9c-af7ad43c4214","abstract":"Rice is far the most important source of food for humans as world demand is expected to hit 533 million tons in 2030 compared to 472 million tons in 2015 (Food and Agricultural Organization, 2003). Increasing rice consumption is prominent in sub-Sahara Africa, and changes in lifestyle and rapid urbanization have been suggested as possible causes.Most families prefer rice over other indigenous foods because they consider it cheap, fast to cook and tasty. Rice consumers are, however, very sensitive to quality and are ready to pay higher prices for better quality (Akoa Etoa et al., 2016;Demont et al., 2012). Although most consumers appreciate rice based on appearance, aroma (of uncooked grains), cooking time, swelling capacity, texture, and aroma (of cooked grains), some for health concerns (diabetes, obesity, and metabolic    "}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"03e83a03187b991c819f7e880acadb11","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/f9c52883-a5ae-4351-b0fe-9f92a5ee1eca/retrieve"},"pageCount":3,"title":"FOOD SAFETY WORKING GROUP IN VIETNAM E-BULLETIN JULY -DECEMBER 2022 Publications Peer-reviewed articles in International Scientific Indexing (ISI) journals","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Presentations, proceedings, reports","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":71,"text":"• Unger, F., Sinh Dang-Xuan and Hung-Nguyen Viet. 2022. Use of risk assessment for food safety management with an integrated One Health approach. Presentation at a webinar on One Health application in foodborne diseases, Gadjah Mada, Indonesia, 14 July 2022. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI. More • Hung Nguyen, Bett, B., Unger, F., Murphy, M., Muloi, D. and Sinh Dang. 2022 • HTX Túy Loan từng bước nâng cao giá trị sản phẩm"}]},{"head":"Media coverage","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":2,"text":"In Vietnamese"},{"index":2,"size":4,"text":"• https://www.mard.gov.vn/Pages/hoi-thao-khoi-dong-du-an-sang-kien-mot-suc-khoe-cua-cgiar-va-duan-ict4health.aspx • https://nongnghiep.vn/giam-nhiet-lay-nhiem-benh-tu-dong-vat-nho-mot-suc-khoe-d329070.html"},{"index":3,"size":2,"text":"• https://truyenhinhthanhhoa.vn/70-benh-truyen-nhiem-nguy-hiem-moi-noi-o-nguoi-co-nguon-goc-tudong-vat-180220803150351346.htm"}]},{"head":"In English","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":7,"text":"• https://vietnamagriculture.nongnghiep.vn/reducing-zoonotic-diseases-thanks-to-one-healthapproach-d329090.html Compiled by Chi Nguyen, ILRI"}]}],"figures":[{"text":"• https://thainguyentv.vn/thoi-su-thai-nguyen-ngay-0582022-23405.media?gidzl=KIGg45E8kIbNEIqJKPQvBL4xBnbFdR9p6Z4Z6qoRj7L5D29BHycnT4Cp8nv1cE1mHJ HoH3OmdwKCK8-xB0 (14:12-15:24) OH launch Other related news/regulations on food safety • Chỉ thị của Ban Bí thư về tăng cường bảo đảm an ninh, an toàn thực phẩm trong tình hình mới (Directive of the Secretariat on strengthening food security and safety in the new situation) • Quyết định về việc ban hành Quy chế làm việc của Cơ quan Cục An toàn thực phẩm (Decision on promulgating working regulations of the Food Safety Authority) • Thông tư số 19/2022/TT-BNNPTNT ngày 02/12/2022 ban hành danh mục thuốc bảo vệ thực vật được phép sử dụng tại Việt Nam và danh mục thuốc bảo vệ thực vật cấm sử dụng tại Việt Nam (Circular No. 19/2022/TT-BNNPTNT dated 2 December 2022 promulgating the list of pesticides permitted to be used in Vietnam and the list of pesticides banned from use in Vietnam) • Tăng cường chỉ đạo công tác bảo đảm vệ sinh, an toàn thực phẩm trong các cơ sở giáo dục (Strengthening food hygiene and safety in educational institutions) • Ban hành Kế hoạch triển khai công tác bảo đảm an toàn thực phẩm Tết Nguyên đán Quý Mão và mùa Lễ hội Xuân 2023 (Promulgating the plan to implement food safety assurance for the Lunar New Year and the Spring Festival of 2023) "},{"text":". Protecting human health through a One Health approach. Presented at the kick-off workshop of the CGIAR Initiative on One Health and ICT4Health project, Hanoi, Vietnam, 3 August 2022. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI and Washington D.C, United States: IFPRI. More • Unger, F., Nga Nguyen-Thi-Duong, Huyen Le Thi, Phuc Pham Duc, Sinh Dang-Xuan and Grace, D. 2022. Presentation at the 16th International Symposium of Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Halifax, Canada, 7-12 August 2022. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI and Hanoi, Vietnam: National Institute of Veterinary Research and National Institute of Malariology, Parasitology and Entomology. More • Unger, F. 2022. Protecting human health through a One Health approach. Presented at the 19th quarterly meeting of the Food Safety Working Group in Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam, 26 September 2022. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI. More Participatory guarantee models for safe vegetables in Hanoi: sharing results after 3 years • ILRI research on zoonosis, food safety and antimicrobial resistance highlighted at the 2022 Global ODA Forum• Agroecology project supports capacity development for food safety in Laos and Vietnam• Nutrition-sensitive agri-food systems for resilient and sustainable Asian mega-deltas Food safety knowledge, attitudes, practices and trust of pork consumers of Northern Vietnam. Presentation at the 16th International Symposium of Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Halifax, Canada, 7-12 August 2022. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI. More • Sinh Dang-Xuan, Nga Nguyen-Thi-Duong, Ty, C., Hung Pham-Van, Unger, F. and Hung Nguyen-Viet. 2022. Assessing impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on animal source food retailers and consumers in Vietnam and Cambodia. News articles on websites Food safety knowledge, attitudes, practices and trust of pork consumers of Northern Vietnam. Presentation at the 16th International Symposium of Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Halifax, Canada, 7-12 August 2022. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI. More • Sinh Dang-Xuan, Nga Nguyen-Thi-Duong, Ty, C., Hung Pham-Van, Unger, F. and Hung Nguyen-Viet. 2022. Assessing impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on animal source food retailers and consumers in Vietnam and Cambodia. News articles on websites  "}],"sieverID":"6f6ef6f1-3c1a-4a67-ab27-42d501e0fa03","abstract":""}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"0434af66fed6e6de25d86aded2fbcd5a","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/765c3d93-74c9-4b0b-8ade-264e4683b971/retrieve"},"pageCount":14,"title":"Poverty and Gender: a Proposal for Action Research","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"INTRODUCTION","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":53,"text":"Women constitute nearly sixty percent of the world's one billion poor. Of one-third billion people living in absolute poverty, over seventy percent are women. Over the last two decades of the twentieth century, the number of women living in absolute poverty has risen by fifty percent (in contrast to thirty percent for men)."},{"index":2,"size":131,"text":"As the world population doubles the need for food will more than double, and world agricultural output per unit of labor will need to increase by a factor of ten, mostly in the Third World (Marris,1999). FAO estimates show that women account for more than half the labor required to produce the food consumed in the developing world. In Africa -where female farming is of paramount importance, nearly seventy percent of the staple food in the continent is produced by women farmers and is of increasing importance as more men migrate from rural areas in search of work (Saito et al.1990;World Bank 1989) This makes women in the Third World an important group not only as beneficiaries of poverty alleviation but as contributors to the economic growth required to end poverty."},{"index":3,"size":135,"text":"The different roles, rights and resources that men and women have in society are an important determinant of the nature and scope of poverty. This is especially (though not uniquely) the case among rural populations in the Third World, where there is a central relationship between the capacity of rural households to produce enough income or food year round to meet their basic nutritional needs and the control women have over inputs and outputs in the food production-to-consumption system. This paper examines the dimensions of poverty and the relationship between gender and the poverty of rural people in the Third World. This analysis is applied to formulate a proposal for the application of science and technology to improving food production and environmental protection, an agenda of central importance to rural women in the Third World."}]},{"head":"The Dimensions of Poverty","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":45,"text":"Between 1965 and 1992 according to Marris(1999) global poverty was reduced by about one third to the extent that half a billion people came out of absolute poverty. Nonetheless by the year 2000 there will be 1.5 billion people in absolute poverty in the world."},{"index":2,"size":86,"text":"Absolute material deprivation is one dimension of poverty. The UN Human Development Report (1997) for example, uses five statistical indicators all of which affect men and women differently, and are pertinent to describing gender-differentiated deprivation: life expectancy; malnourishment under five years of age; illiteracy; access to safe water and health services. These indicators help to signal a degree of deprivation below which material survival is severely threatened, but cannot tell us much about a number of other dimensions of poverty which are especially important to women."},{"index":3,"size":243,"text":"Income is a key aspect of poverty because in the absence of any other material assets, it reflects the capacity of the individual or household to obtain the minimum amount of goods needed to survive in society by sale or exchange of their labor. For example, the United Nations classifies a Third World person as poor if they are trying to live on less than $1 per day (adjusting for international differences in price levels ). For the poor who lack material assets (the \"laboring poor\"), their income depends on the value of their labor . One interpretation is that unemployment, under-employment, low paid work and unpaid work necessary to the maintenance of social lifeand performed largely by women, subsidizes the cost of wage labor in the market and provides a pool of cheap labor when required, thus keeping down overall wages and production costs. Thus efforts to reduce the poverty of low wage people, and in particular women, through income generation need to take into account the possibility that poverty based on the low value of their labor is a functional component of global as well as local market structures. Alleviation of this kind of poverty over the next half century will depend on increased overall economic growth, population control to keep the supply of labor from growing faster than demand, and a demand for labor that exceeds supply (Marris, 1999). This has some important gender implications explored in the next section."},{"index":4,"size":375,"text":"Any discussion of the dimensions of poverty needs to go beyond the measurement of income needed to provide the minimum amount of goods needed to survive. A useful framework for analysing the gender dimensions of poverty differentiates four dimensions which complement each other: starvation, subsistence, social coping and participation (Dean, 1999:8, after George andHowards, 1991). Relative poverty is as important as material poverty once starvation is overcome or basic physical survival is achieved. Inequality therefore, remains an important dimension of poverty even when we consider subsistence, which has socially defined standards that vary from one culture to another. By the end of this century the richest countries of the First World (about one tenth of World population), with over half of world GDP will be more than ten times better off than the poorest countries of the Third World (Marris, 1999). Some analysts show that wealth is becoming more concentrated. According to a United Nations report, the world's 358 billionaires in 1996 were wealthier than the combined annual incomes of the poorest 45 percent of the world's population(2.3 billion people). Whereas the richest 20 percent of the world's population were 30 times better off than the poorest 20 per cent in 1960, by the mid-1990ties they were 61 times wealthier (cited in Dean, 1999). Sen (1997) provides a concept of relative poverty very pertinent to analysing the gender dimensions of poverty based on the individual's capacities or capability to do many of the things valued in the society . This is similar to Runciman's (1966) concept of relative deprivation and Peter Townsend's (1979:31-57) concept of relative poverty, defined as the \"lack of resources to obtain the types of diet, participate in the activities, and have the living conditions and amenities which are customary, or are at least widely encouraged and approved , in the societies to which they belong.\" An important contribution by Townsend was to define the poverty line as a situation in which people are excluded from participation in key aspects of the public life of ordinary citizens, a concept which has been built on by others (eg Scott 1994) to interpret poverty in terms of either participation in or \"social exclusion\" from the ordinary things which other members of the public enjoy."},{"index":5,"size":96,"text":"The high degree of global material inequality at the end of the twentieth century influences what it means to be poor in relative terms. An example is the emergence of a privileged group in the labor force and among consumers who have access to personal computers from childhood, are highly computer skilled and are internet literate. Their influence in the global economy can make access to computers and computer skills an important element of relative deprivation and social exclusion and ultimately, determine the value of the labor of vast numbers who have not aquired these skills."},{"index":6,"size":111,"text":"The concept of social exclusion is important for our purposes because it provides a framework for understanding poverty in terms of different dimensions of participation, whether privileged participation or deprived participation. Jordan (1996) distinguishes between communities \"of fate\" and communities \"of choice\" as dimensions of poverty or wealth. Communities of fate are entrapped by a particular set of social and ecological circumstances, including coercion and subordination, both very relevant dimensions of the poverty of women in Third World societies as discsussed in more detail in the next section. Communities of choice in contrast, have the freedom and the power to define and accrue to themselves forms of social exclusion and privilege."},{"index":7,"size":82,"text":"Powerlessness is therefore a key dimension of a definition of poverty, although it is poorly operationalized in research. One way to conceptualize poverty in terms of powerlessness is to analyse the social distribution of risk or opportunity. At the negative end of this powerlessness spectrum might be the risk loss of control over one's own body (eg. of being sold into slavery or prostitution). At the positive end of the spectrum might be the opportunity to migrate to wealthier and higher-wage societies."},{"index":8,"size":138,"text":"Understanding poverty in terms of powerlessness has to be related to lack of resources as well as social exclusion from participation or levels of income. For this reason the concept of asset accumulation is an important one. Assets may be material capital (land, usufructory rights of important natural resources, savings, jewelery, livestock or other kinds of physical capital); human capital (education and skills); or social capital (organization ). Different categories of impoverishment can be identified from the crossclassification of income with asset accumulation. For example, people with relatively high income but low asset accumulation will be more vulnerable to unemployment or business downturns that pitchfork them inrto poverty, than people with lower incomes but enough assets to tide them over. Asset accumulation is therefore, particularly important to identifying poverty in terms of exposure to the risk or vulnerability."},{"index":9,"size":31,"text":"In summary, a number of dimensions of poverty can be usefully defined for analysing relationships between gender and poverty related to starvation (or absolute material poverty), subsistence, social coping and participation."},{"index":10,"size":97,"text":"Income levels and in the absence of other assets, the value of labor are essential determinants of absolute material well-being as well as the capability to achieve the minimum goods defined by the society in question, as necessary for subsistence. Beyond material survival, socio-ecological factors (race, gender, geographical location) can be as important as income in determining access to or exclusion from the things that society defines as important for well-being, as well as degrees of participation and powerlessness. A factor in the capability of individuals to cope with hardship and to manage risk is asset accumulation."}]},{"head":"GENDER AND POVERTY","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":74,"text":"The different roles, rights and resources that men and women have in society are an important determinant of the nature and scope of their poverty. These differences are culturally constructed and historically determined; they are supported by social organization and economic systems. As such they can change; and it is a widely held thesis that the allocation of work and the valuation of women's labor has to change if poverty is to be eliminated."},{"index":2,"size":84,"text":"The relationship between poverty and gender is especially important because of the positive effect that increasing women's incomes and education has on nutrition, child survival and, as child survival rates improve, on declining birth rates. When unwaged household production is valued , women's contribution is estimated at between 40-60 percent of total household income ( Goldschmidt-Clermont, 1987). This means that efforts to control population growth and provide employment for the poor must build on the provision of decent incomes and education for poor women."},{"index":3,"size":56,"text":"Different types of women experience different degrees of poverty or wealth in society. Third World rural women may be unpaid or paid family laborers, they may be wage laborers outside the household, independent or joint entrepreneurs involved in a small business or in trading, they may be landowners in their own right or jointly with relatives."},{"index":4,"size":74,"text":"It is therefore, erroneous to discuss Third World women and poverty as if there were one generic situation common to all women. Unfortunately however, there is a dearth of comparative studies which relate different types of women to corresponding levels and types of poverty taking into account the several dimensions of poverty discussed in the previous section, and also compares their poverty with that of men. This is a serious gap in the research."},{"index":5,"size":35,"text":"At present therefore, the best we can do is to draw together a series of observations based on individual studies, each of which offer some insights for the overall picture of gender-related poverty and inequality."}]},{"head":"Women's income and poverty.","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":109,"text":"A number of studies conducted in the last decade show that poverty and food availability depend women's income, because men and women spend income under their control in different ways. The level of women's income is substantially and positively related to household calorie availability, child health and survival. Women typically spend a high proportion of their income on food and health care for children. Men use a higher proprtion for their own personal expenditures(studies by von Braun and IFPRI). For example one study in Guatemala estimates that average yearly profits from nontraditional export crops would double household food expenditures if they were controlled by women rather than their husbands."},{"index":2,"size":166,"text":"Women's assets, participation and poverty.Unequal rights and obligations , heavy time pressure to do multiple jobs, lack of access to land, capital, and credit, low levels of participation in agricultural extension support programs, education and collective organizations all prevent women from achieving the same levels of productivity as men. Many studies show that plots of land controlled by women have lower yields than those controlled by men, because of lower access to technology and inputs like fertiliser as well as labor. The potential for growth and food security that could result from improving women farmers access to resources, technology and information are as large or larger in some cases than the gains the expected from breeding \"superplants\". For example, some estimates show that reducing the time burdens of women could increase household cash incomes by 10 %. Estimates of how much women farmers' yields could increase just by giving them the the same level of inputs and education as men farmers range from 7-24 percent ."}]},{"head":"Access to technology and poverty.","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":166,"text":"Technology transfer aimed at women has been largely restricted to a few of women's existing activities, in particular traditional work related to housekeeping and childcare (Carr,1993). For example, cooking stoves have received a vast amount of attention worldwide. There have been several large-scale initiatives, such as the UNIFEM global 'WAFT\" program, along with a vast number of projects attempting to provide improved technology to women in their traditional productive work, but \"the transfer of larger and more complex technologies to women has been virtually non-existent\" (Everts, 1998). At the same time, the record is mixed with respect to the unintended or indirect effects of new agricultural technologies on women; in some cases women have succeeded in adopting new varieties and other production technologies; in other cases women have been unable to process high yielding varieties developed without attention to postharvest qualities; in other cases, women laborers have been displaced by the introduction of high yielding varieties together with less labor intensive or more male laborusing technologies."}]},{"head":"Powerlessness, risk and poverty.","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":113,"text":"The violence which affects the lives of poor women in the Third World is better documented now than it used to be and shows the many facets of their powerlessness in the most elementary respects: millions of female babies destroyed at or soon after birth such that there is a big \"population gap\" in female vs male births in the Third World (Chambers, 1996); the sale of young girls into forced labor, prostitution or as child brides; the ritual mutilation of female sexual organs; and physical violence used to control women's labor in the household. Other forms of social violence include abandonment of mothers to cope in female-headed households, denial of property rights."},{"index":2,"size":95,"text":"Poor rural women are highly vulnerable to deprivation in terms of nutrition, health, education, asset accumulation, skill building and participation in collective organization because they tend to provide the \"safety net\" which protects their children and household against catastrophic poverty. The foundation of this safety net function is the division of labor which allocates a disproportionate share of un-waged or under-waged household and family maintenance work to women. UNDP estimated the value of this type of work at $16,000 billion of global output, of this $11,000 billion worth was carried out by women (UN, 1995)."},{"index":3,"size":144,"text":"Third world women's un-waged work includes activities that make it possible for laborers, small farms and businesses to work and produce at lower returns to labor and capital than would otherwise be possible: for example, cooking meals, fetching water and firewood, caring for the sick. One example illustrates this process: we costed the labor family women put into a single activity--cooking for field workers--in the course of production of a field crop at what it would cost the male head of household to hire a non-family member to do this task. The cost of hiring made the production of the crop unprofitable; and the conclusions of the economic analysis were borne out by the decisions of male producers in the community not to produce this crop if they did not have a family member to cook for the field workers (Ashby and Guerrero, 1985)."},{"index":4,"size":335,"text":"A detailed case study carried out in Kenya illustrates a situation of which there a multiple examples: women are increasingly the sole providers of labor on farms, because men migrate to higher wage opportunities, and women's labor is of lower value in the labor market. The added pressure on women's time led to low labor productivity on farm, particularly in femaleheaded households where women neglected on-farm taks in order to hire out their labor to obtain income to meet the immediate food needs of the household (Mutoro, 1997) Another study suggests that women's small enterprises such as food processing and trading provide a similar \"safety net\" function. Most of the enterprises owned by women are very small (maximum 25 employees), have low profit margins, are part-time or seasonal and are frequently run from the home so as to be combined with household responsibilities. Female entrepreneurs often do not increase investment in one specialized activity in order to maximize growth in their business; instead they diversify to minimize risks to stabilize income which guarrantees basic food security. This safety-first orientation is often a response to the more risky strategies undertaken by other family members which are underwritten by the women's provision of a safety net (Downing,1991). This finding that innovators' risk taking in poor households is underwritten by the family, and in particular the provision of basic food security by women, is similar to the results of a study which examined the family background of poor farmers introducing risky new agricultural technologies and found that the early innovators were more likely to belong to extended families. The individual innovators were young men who did not own much land and who worked as sharecroppers or farm laborers, but who belonged to an extended family unit with asssets of land and household labor which enabled them as a group to absorb losses and cushion the individual from economic catastrophe. Young women did not have access to this pattern of familial support for agricultural innovation (Rivera and Ashby, 1985)."},{"index":5,"size":91,"text":"The low value of women's time and women's work is an important reason why development efforts which provide technologies and income earning opportunities directed at women's traditional activities have to a very large extent, failed to have a significant impact. Unless there is an activity with a higher return to labor, which generates additional income and which does not undermine the \"safety net\" function of women's economic contribution to the household, there is no incentive for women to save time in traditional activities especially if this requires expenditure on new technology."},{"index":6,"size":52,"text":"Therefore one of the key interventions needed in poverty eradication is the identification of new opportunities for income generation which have superior returns to labor compared with women's traditional work. These need to be combined with support mechanisms for the \"safety net\" functions for the household provided by women's work and income."}]},{"head":"A PROPOSAL FOR ACTION RESEARCH","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":236,"text":"Several actors in the international development effort to eliminate poverty have taken important steps towards mainstreaming attention to gender and impact on poor rural women over the past three decades: in 1979 the UN Convention on the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women was adopted; in 1989 the declaration on violence against women followed; the Bejing declaration and platform for action formulated in 1995 at the Un Fourth World Conference on Women was another milestone. Other important commitments are stated in the World Bank since the publication of its paper \"Enhancing Women's participation in Economic Development\" in 1994, the OECD with its position statement \"Gender Equality: Moving towards Sustainable People-Centered Development made in 1995, and the European Union policy statement \"Integrating Gender Issues in Development Cooperation \" also issued in 1995. However, action lags far behind the statement of good intentions. For example, the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research, a $360 million consortium supported by the same donors who issued the above statements, integrated gender analysis as a program in its mainstream research agenda in 1996. A head count of the number of research studies considering gender reported shows a rise from 140 studies in 1995 to 227 in 1998. There is no reason for complacency about this steady improvement. An analysis of these studies shows that only 11 or 14% of the studies reported were specifically developing technology to benefit rural women."},{"index":2,"size":31,"text":"The full integration of gender analysis and the participation of men and women farmers as partners in international agricultural research and technology development requires a three pronged strategy that consists of:"},{"index":3,"size":115,"text":"• catalysing collaborative research with the centers and partners, to generate sound evidence on the benefits in terms and impact of differentiating the needs of men and women as users of technology, and recognising their different contributions as participants in research ; • supporting capacity building with the Centers to increase skills and knowledge to use gender analysis effectively and appropriately • promoting information dissemination and exchange about best practices and lessons learned . Key elements of a proposal. If we are to take the phrase \"empowering women in agriculture\" as more than a cheap slogan, then we have to work from the foundation relationship between gender and the several dimensions of poverty outlined earlier."},{"index":4,"size":111,"text":"Mainstreaming gender into the existing research agenda will not be enough, if that agenda is systematically failing to take into account the sources of income and the assets that women in poor households depend on. Moreover, the effects of globalization which creates a pressing need to find alternative sources of income in situations where traditional means are no longer economically viable, require us to go beyond adjusting technology to fit with the traditional responsibilities and constraints faced by poor men and women farmers. We need to be actively looking at new alternatives in the global economy and the gender-differentiated needs for technology,skills and information required for a frontal attack on poverty."},{"index":5,"size":121,"text":"Strengthening the capacity of global agricultural research to take on this task has at least three important elements: 1. Link research institutions with existing sources of information and expertise so that researchers and client groups can readily access and make use of the large body of information on gender, agriculture and technology for women already in existence . These linkages need to focus on strong interactions between technology designers, technology producers (such as small scale artesans, some of whom may be women in the Third World) and technology users (see for an example, Everts, 1998) 2. Identify new livelihood opportunities for the poor in relation to a changing demand for agricultural technology which is analysed separately for men and for women."},{"index":6,"size":36,"text":"A coordinated diagnostic research initiative is needed to identify rapidly the priority geographical areas and populations in which genderdifferentiated research and technology development has potential for high payoff in combating poverty. This diagnosis needs to include:"},{"index":7,"size":51,"text":"• Development of a GIS minimum database, using available data with expert input to identify areas of the world where women's special needs require priority attention • Design sample of areas using the GIS minimum data base to define priority geographic area for rapid appraisal of gender differentiated opportunities and needs."},{"index":8,"size":24,"text":"• In sampled areas, network with grassroots organizations and NGO's to select promising technology innovation opportunities for rural women 3. Research for technology development"},{"index":9,"size":53,"text":"• Select priority entry points where research is needed to promote the development of innovative agricultural technology by and for rural women in selected areas, and the policy interventions needed to ensure access • Institutionalize regular technology evaluations by a network of gender differentiated user groups, as feedback to research on technology design."},{"index":10,"size":47,"text":"• Establish an interactive, user-friendly database on evaluations of technologies for women with appropriate institutions • Support regular review and exchange of results • Establish a regular consultation to update the diagnosis of needs and the evaluation of technologies, monitoring and evaluation of impact of gendered research."}]},{"head":"Increase women's assets (physical, human and social capital)","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":96,"text":"• Protecting women's traditional rights to land and other resources, including water, forest and grazing are essential. Often this requires participation in effective collective or community based organization . • In general women's access to collective organization for resource management, health and child care, credit, information, marketing and small enterprise development needs strong support. • Formal education and access to informal education and skill building is an essential ingredient of the effort to build women's access to secure non-traditional sources of income with forward linkages to improving child survival rates and decline in the birth rate."}]}],"figures":[],"sieverID":"636cc117-5ed8-40e2-a908-7ecd951ff1da","abstract":""}

data/part_2/0477616c40205a1b966806bb5a7c1a19.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"0477616c40205a1b966806bb5a7c1a19","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/16d74b11-6946-440f-8a87-f119becda023/retrieve"},"pageCount":9,"title":"","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":15,"text":"Vision: an inclusive and sustainable development of the dairy value chain by 2023 (remains same)"}]},{"head":"Possible long term goals","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":6,"text":"Development Goal: Improve livelihoods through milk."}]},{"head":"How:","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":66,"text":"• By promoting rural commercialization to boost productivity and economic viability of smallholder dairying by and for the poor (ASDP-2 Component 3) • Leverage new experiences and learning to promote small-scale agribusinesses and strengthen their linkages to overcome market barriers in smallholder dairy value chains • Upscale lessons on adapted market hubs approaches without collective bulking and marketing • Conduct research within the agribusiness development project"},{"index":2,"size":15,"text":"• Improve access to and use of inputs and services including credit among precommercial producers"},{"index":3,"size":12,"text":"• Increase participation of smallholder male and female farmers in output markets"},{"index":4,"size":26,"text":"• Improve enabling environment for production and consumption of milk and facilitate new linkages between value chain actors and public and private services to generate innovation"},{"index":5,"size":31,"text":"• Catalyze private and public investments for the incorporation of milk into national and community dietary systems and empowerment for improved nutrition particularly in women of child-bearing age and young children."}]},{"head":"Possible development objectives","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":24,"text":"Initial targeting by researchers who then hand-over leadership to an agribusiness development while the latter plays a 'knowledge partner' role (MLE and targeted studies)"},{"index":2,"size":28,"text":"• How can new dairy technologies & approaches be profitably leveraged by agribusinesses to deliver increased income for pre-commercial producers and better nutrition for poor consumers at scale?"}]},{"head":"Key research question","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":12,"text":"• New knowledge on opportunities for upscaling and sustaining inclusive gender-equitable participation"},{"index":2,"size":25,"text":"• Improved and validated approaches and technologies in different contexts, and how to integrate them into existing institutional mechanisms for delivery of inputs and services"},{"index":3,"size":23,"text":"• Lessons for sustainable market hub models and related agribusinesses captured for different contexts and recommendations for further scaling out developed and disseminated."}]},{"head":"Possible research outputs","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":6,"text":"(Generated within the agribusiness dev project)"},{"index":2,"size":11,"text":"• Identify and target priority locations and producer groups for development"},{"index":3,"size":17,"text":"• Identify \"crystallizing agents\", typically existing product and service delivery agents around whom multiple activities can coalesce"},{"index":4,"size":17,"text":"• Support the strengthening of research-extension linkages and provision of extension services in a commercially viable way"},{"index":5,"size":17,"text":"• Promote access to and use of ICT as a way of increasing access to critical information"},{"index":6,"size":20,"text":"• Enhance local capacity of producers, other value chain agents and extension workers to operate within hubs and multi-stakeholder alliances"}]},{"head":"Possible approach (milk or multicommodity)","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":8,"text":"Work in progress, mainly questions at this point"},{"index":2,"size":10,"text":"• DDF -Quo vadis? Added value to driving the industry"},{"index":3,"size":7,"text":"• ASDP -2 Context (LMP already integrated)"},{"index":4,"size":12,"text":"• Role of AR4D within the ASDP-2 context? Potential areas from LMP"},{"index":5,"size":9,"text":"• An agri-food systems approach for income and nutrition?"},{"index":6,"size":46,"text":"• A project like MoreMilkiT that other projects can leverage would be ideal The CGIAR Research Program on Livestock aims to increase the productivity and profitability of livestock agri-food systems in sustainable ways, making meat, milk and eggs more available and affordable across the developing world."},{"index":7,"size":14,"text":"This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence."},{"index":8,"size":19,"text":"The program thanks all donors and organizations which globally support its work through their contributions to the CGIAR system"}]}],"figures":[{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"• Revisit vision statement as whether it is still valid Maziwa Zaidi 2017 & Beyond Maziwa Zaidi 2017 & Beyond CGIAR Research Program on Livestock CGIAR Research Program on Livestock  "}],"sieverID":"b99fd662-6d34-4544-b575-873e11810fcb","abstract":""}

data/part_2/04b0ad0b799af00f49d099990634dd50.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"04b0ad0b799af00f49d099990634dd50","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/4f035ab8-ff0c-4039-896a-a5f21d9f766f/retrieve"},"pageCount":11,"title":"Climate risk in agriculture can be better managed with localized climate-informed agro-advisories tools innovatively created to navigate the data scarcity challenges. Innovative Climate Risk Management Strategies for Data-Sparse Drylands","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":72,"text":"Smallholder farmers residing in drylands represent the demographic most susceptible to the effects of climate change and variability. These individuals often grapple with limited resources, restricted access to credit, and a scarcity of arable land, which exacerbates their vulnerability. Managing climate risks within their production environment is not merely important, but a necessity. This is crucial to guarantee their food security and enhance their livelihood amidst the prevailing and future climate conditions."},{"index":2,"size":64,"text":"Managing climate risks in agriculture necessitates the implementation of comprehensive strategies that enable farmers to adapt to fluctuating weather conditions, such as extreme temperature and rainfall events, floods, and droughts. These strategies aim to ensure sustainable agricultural production and resilience of farming systems. This can be accomplished through various methods, including adopting and using Climate Information Services (CIS) and implementing diverse climate-smart agricultural practices."},{"index":3,"size":56,"text":"However, the intricate dynamics of climate change and variability pose significant challenges to implementing these strategies, particularly in rainfed environments. Furthermore, many smallholder farmers in these environments lack climate literacy, further complicating climate risk management. Therefore, addressing these challenges and enhancing farmers' climate literacy is crucial to ensure effective climate risk management and sustainable agricultural practices."}]},{"head":"What is the role of CIS in climate risk management?","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":54,"text":"Numerous studies have underscored the pivotal role of Climate Information Services (CIS) in managing climate risks. For instance, in Senegal-a country characterized by arid to semi-arid conditions-prior research has demonstrated how integrating CIS into agricultural activities can mitigate the impacts of climate change and variability, thereby enabling farmers to manage climate risks more effectively."},{"index":2,"size":9,"text":"One such study conducted by Dayamba et al., (2018)  "}]},{"head":"What Constraints CIS Adoption and Utilization in Senegal?","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":65,"text":"Several factors have been identified that hinder the adoption and utilization of CIS in agriculture in Africa. Lessons drawn from the PICSA and CINSERE projects reveal that the adoption of CIS in Senegal is primarily hampered by the quality and availability of climate data. This significantly contributes to the lack of location-specific content that could effectively aid farmers in adapting to their local climate patterns."},{"index":2,"size":104,"text":"Climate Information Services play a crucial role in effectively managing climate risks in Senegal. Nonetheless, the significant impediments to the success of these services in the region stem from inadequate investments and the absence of localized content. Dayamba et al., (2018) noted that despite the demonstrated benefits of PICSA in a tailored environment, the implementation of the approach was constrained by a lack of historical climate records due to the sparse network of weather equipment. Furthermore, low investment in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) was cited as a major barrier preventing rural communities from benefiting from the climate services offered in the CINSERE project."},{"index":3,"size":63,"text":"These and other factors have limited the production and provision of CIS in Africa, leading to low levels of preparedness for climate disasters. These disasters often result in significant losses in agricultural production, exacerbating food insecurity and negatively impacting the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Therefore, addressing these challenges is crucial for enhancing climate risk management and promoting sustainable agricultural practices in the region."}]},{"head":"How do we manage climate risks in data-sparse environments?","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":47,"text":"The management of climate risks in agriculture in data-sparse environments is indeed a critical issue, particularly considering the impacts of climate variability and change within the African context. Enhancing the adaptive capacity of farmers is essential for strengthening their production systems and increasing their resilience and sustainability."},{"index":2,"size":67,"text":"In 2022 and 2023, the AICCRA project sought to bridge significant gaps that limit the provision of climate services to farmers. Specifically, the project adopted and modified the climate-informed agro-advisory, also known as the Intelligent Agricultural System Advisory Tool (iSAT), to suit the local context of farming communities in four regions of Senegal: Kaffrine, Louga, Tambacounda, and Thies. These regions span four distinct agroecological zones in Senegal."},{"index":3,"size":80,"text":"iSAT is a decision-support tool designed to assist farmers with both preseason planning and inseason crop management decisions. It is a forecast-based tool designed to offer localized content that facilitates on-farm-level decision-making before and during the growing season. Its approach includes extensive data analysis, crop modeling and simulation, decision tree development, agroadvisory creation and dissemination, and the establishment of a feedback mechanism to facilitate co-learning throughout the season. This approach was carefully designed and implemented to address the following challenges:"},{"index":4,"size":86,"text":"1. Data scarcity: Implementing a data-resourceful tool in data-sparse environments posed a significant challenge. However, an excellent design that extensively utilized available data (i.e., scarce station data, re-analysis data, and ground truth data) sufficiently addressed this problem. The data mainly contained parameters such as weather conditions (i.e., observed, and forecasted rainfall and temperature) and soil conditions (i.e., observed and forecasted soil moisture). With the help of crop model simulation, the data were carefully combined to comprehensively understand and establish the thresholds that trigger various on-farm-level decisions."}]},{"head":"Forecast accuracy and climate illiteracy:","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":98,"text":"Forecast accuracy and its interpretation by smallholder farmers or any other end-users has been a problem for many decades. To navigate this, our approach involved a careful interpretation of the forecast in terms of what decision can be made from the forecast information received. We also enhanced climate literacy through a feedback mechanism established in the iSAT channel, which helped the farmers to continue learning throughout the season. Moreover, we facilitated a training program with lead farmers around the communities where iSAT was implemented to enhance their understanding of the use of climate-informed advisories in their day-to-day decisions."}]},{"head":"Localized agro-advisory services:","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":61,"text":"In collaboration with Jokalante-an ICT company operating within Senegal-we were able to localize and disseminate the iSAT agroadvisories in the local language, ensuring the comprehensibility and usability of the advisories by the local communities. Jokalante translated the iSAT agro-advisories into local languages (i.e., Wolof and Pula) and disseminated them weekly via IVR to help farmers in both preseason and in-season management."},{"index":2,"size":23,"text":"These efforts highlight the potential of innovative tools like iSAT in improving climate risk management and promoting sustainable agricultural practices in data-sparse environments."}]},{"head":"How did iSAT impact the farmers?","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":46,"text":"Over two consecutive seasons, iSAT reached a total of 4,020 farmers, of which 24% were female, demonstrating significant female involvement across four intervention regions, via Interactive Voice Response (IVR). Additionally, over 100,000 farmers were reached through the Union of Local Radios (URAC) in the intervention regions."},{"index":2,"size":69,"text":"The benefits of iSAT within these communities were remarkable, as revealed by post-season surveys conducted in both intervention and control villages (villages where farmers did not have access to agro-advisories). A substantial 94% of farmers who received these advisories confirmed that they were comprehensive, easy to understand, and reliable. Furthermore, 93% of farmers who received the advisories affirmed that they made their decisions based on the advisories they received."},{"index":3,"size":167,"text":"Farmers confirmed that the advisories assisted them in a range of pre-season planning activities, such as selecting the appropriate crop, diversifying crops, choosing the right tillage practices, and preparing budgets, and contingency plans. They also found the advisories helpful for in-season management, which involves crop management tasks such as fertilizer and pesticide applications, and climate risk mitigation. Compared to their counterparts who did not have access to the advisories, farmers using iSAT advisories demonstrated enhanced adaptive capacity to climate change and variability. This helped them better manage climate risks (as shown in Figure 2) and improve the productivity and sustainability of their systems. Specifically, farmers using iSAT advisories experienced a significant increase in yield: millet yield increased by 41% and groundnut yield by 21%, compared to those not using the advisories. Additionally, the cost of input and labor per hectare was 24% lower among the farmers using iSAT advisories. These results underscore the effectiveness of iSAT advisories in promoting sustainable agricultural practices and enhancing climate risk management."}]},{"head":"INFO NOTE 10 10","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":29,"text":"The iSAT initiative underscores the potential of innovative tools to enhance climate risk management and foster sustainable agricultural practices in data-scarce environments. What do the farmers say about iSAT? "}]},{"head":"What are the final thoughts?","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":150,"text":"The Intelligent Agricultural System Advisory Tool (iSAT) agro-advisories have demonstrated a robust approach to managing climate risks in data-sparse environments, as evidenced by the reliance of farmers on these advisories for decision-making. This approach, which fosters collaboration between scientists and local communities, serves as an exemplary model to produce climate information services. It involves the active engagement of multiple stakeholders in both the production and dissemination processes. Given its proven ability to support farm-level decisions and effectively aid in climate risk management, we strongly recommend that policymakers and other agricultural stakeholders consider scaling up the use of this tool to other environments. The successful implementation of iSAT agro-advisories underscores the potential of such innovative tools in promoting sustainable agricultural practices and enhancing climate risk management in data-sparse environments. This, in turn, can contribute significantly to the resilience and sustainability of agricultural systems in the face of climate change and variability. "}]},{"head":"About AICCRA","index":10,"paragraphs":[]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 1 Figure 1 : Figure 1: Usefulness of the iSAT agro-advisories among farmers in both pre-season and in-season decisions Source: Author. "},{"text":"Figure 2 : Figure 2: A comparison of the management of climate risks in crop production between farmers who utilized iSAT technology (labeled as 'With') and those who did not (labeled as 'Without'). Source: Author. "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":" revealed that access to CIS under the Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) program empowered its beneficiaries. Although the program only reached 57 farmers, it provided them with strategic planning tools informed by local climate patterns. This enabled them to implement various adaptive strategies in response to climate variability, such as adjusting sowing dates, diversifying crops, and managing fertilizers.Another project that yielded positive results in Senegal was the Climate Information Services to Increase Resilience in Senegal (CINSERE) initiative, funded by USAID. This project aimed to Increase Resilience in Senegal (CINSERE) initiative, funded by USAID. This project aimed to enhance meteorological and climate services by providing forecasts, agro-meteorological enhance meteorological and climate services by providing forecasts, agro-meteorological advice, and early warnings for extreme weather. It also offered advice on agricultural practices advice, and early warnings for extreme weather. It also offered advice on agricultural practices to fishing and farming communities. A notable success of this project was its ability to increase to fishing and farming communities. A notable success of this project was its ability to increase the access and utilization of climate information in agricultural activities among farmers in the access and utilization of climate information in agricultural activities among farmers in Senegal. These examples highlight the potential of CIS in improving climate risk management Senegal. These examples highlight the potential of CIS in improving climate risk management and promoting sustainable agricultural practices. and promoting sustainable agricultural practices.  "},{"text":"Aliou Diop, farmer in Méouane  \"My yields improved considerably \"My yields improved considerably last year. The new seeds lived up to last year. The new seeds lived up to our expectations. But I think that the our expectations. But I think that the iSAT agro-advisories given on the iSAT agro-advisories given on the radio and the daily phone calls radio and the daily phone calls contributed a lot to these results. contributed a lot to these results. This year we've started multiplying This year we've started multiplying seeds, and we're counting on the seeds, and we're counting on the project and its warning/advice project and its warning/advice system to support us again to system to support us again to achieve even higher yields.\" achieve even higher yields.\"  "},{"text":"El Hadji Diop, leading millet producer in Méouane, member of GIE Diambar \" AICCRA is good news for our GIE. The project has put us in touch with new advisory tools through Jokalante, ANCAR, and ANACIM. Our work within the GIE has been made easier, especially when it comes to choosing crop types and varieties, the sowing calendar, and the use of water and fertilizer inputs. We have a good knowledge of the improved varieties promoted by AICCRA and this year many of our members have preferred to use these same seeds in their plots\". Fama Fama  "},{"text":"Ndoye, leading producer in the village of Ndombene, Commune of Méouane   "},{"text":"the regular telephone calls we received helped us a great deal in making decisions about the choice of seeds to use, the sowing and harvesting period, and the amount of rain we would get, among other things.\" Awa Diarga Ka, President of a  Awa Diarga Ka, President of a women's promotion group, Commune women's promotion group, Commune of Thiel    of Thiel \"Initially, our village wasn't part of the \"Initially, our village wasn't part of the AICCRA program. Then I heard on the radio AICCRA program. Then I heard on the radio about the project and its activities in Thiel, about the project and its activities in Thiel, particularly fodder production. An particularlyfodderproduction.An agricultural adviser got me onto the call agricultural adviser got me onto the call platform and every week I received platform and every week I received weather information. Honestly, it was weather information. Honestly, it was thanks to this information and advice that I thanks to this information and advice that I became the first woman to grow cowpeas became the first woman to grow cowpeas for fodder in the area, harvesting over 200 for fodder in the area, harvesting over 200 kg of seed last year. I'm constantly invited kg of seed last year. I'm constantly invited on the radio and to meetings to share my on the radio and to meetings to share my experience\".    experience\".  "},{"text":"cgiar.org aiccra.cgiar.org [email protected] CGIARAfrica To cite this Info Note Joseph, Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) is a project that helps deliver a climate-smart African future driven by science and innovation in agriculture. It is led by the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT and supported by a grant from the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank. Explore our work at aiccra.Jacob Emanuel, Nadine, Omnolola Worou, Faye, Aliou, Whitbread, Anthony Michael. 2023. AICCRA Info Note: Innovative Climate Risk Management Strategies for Data-Sparse Drylands. Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA)  "}],"sieverID":"739a89b5-2076-41a8-9d8b-4f89c5ef5011","abstract":""}

data/part_2/050f73e9307aed35ed382a3da0f27322.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"050f73e9307aed35ed382a3da0f27322","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/60213d13-5e61-4858-80d5-0ecec86059ae/retrieve"},"pageCount":2,"title":"Cost-effective total mixed rations for dairy cattle in India","keywords":["P1683 -Product Line 3","3","1: Feed preservation, processing and supplementation technologies"],"chapters":[],"figures":[],"sieverID":"6ebfa2a5-28cd-4aeb-84de-30619d8ae5b1","abstract":"The On-farm Feed Advisor (OFA) app is a mobile based tool that can be used by extension agents to balance nutrients in the diet of dairy cattle and buffaloes by entering some basic data."}

data/part_2/05938303c282301b8e02e35edcae7395.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"05938303c282301b8e02e35edcae7395","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/4d324387-404e-4baf-aaa4-27e100d75373/retrieve"},"pageCount":8,"title":"","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":43,"text":"The Russia-Ukraine war had the greatest negative impact on the agricultural and oil sectors of the economy. Limited access to fertilizer supply, reduced area under crop cultivation, and high transportation costs due to rising fuel prices led to an increase in food prices."},{"index":2,"size":74,"text":"Ghana has strengthened its existing partnerships with development partners and strengthened policies to mitigate the effects of the war on the economy. These include a partnership to establish a fertilizer plant to produce fertilizer locally, fiscal management and widening of the tax revenue, and support to the agricultural sector from development partners. The new policy \"gold-for-oil policy\" is expected to reduce the country' s need for foreign currency and stabilize fuel and food prices."},{"index":3,"size":63,"text":"Careful consideration should be given to the Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) program which seeks to create employment opportunities through food crops for export, rural development, greenhouse technology villages, agricultural mechanization services, and supporting food and jobs. In addition, Ghana' s safety net program -the Livelihood Empowerment Against poverty (LEAP) -should be expanded and increased to improve the livelihoods of the poorest."}]},{"head":"Policy Brief No. 87 Implications of the Russia-Ukraine war on agrifood systems in Ghana and policy responses for building a resilient food system","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":151,"text":"The Russia-Ukraine war has had a negative impact on countries around the world, including Ghana. The two main channels of economic disruption to Ghana's economy are the agricultural and oil sectors. Although Ghana is a net exporter of crude oil, its dependence on petrol and diesel imports increases the country's vulnerability to international price shocks which is reflected in pump prices and escalating inflation. The imports of agricultural inputs in Ghana were highly affected since Russia and Belarus accounted for 41% of global trade in potash (Hebebrand Glauber, 2023). At the start of the war, wheat Introduction real terms, respectively, and the weighted average price of fertilizer has doubled partly due to the war (Arndt et al., 2022). Food markets in Ghana are well integrated with international markets, so international price shocks are easily transmitted to local markets (Martey et al., 2020). This had led to high food inflation in Ghana."},{"index":2,"size":171,"text":"Figures 1 and 2 show Ghana's inorganic and organic fertilizer imports from December 2019 to December 2022. Fertilizer imports have declined in the past two years due to varying factors, such as payment delays of importers by the Government of Ghana and high cost of importation. The restriction in movement due to the COVID-19 pandemic can also be attributed to this declining trend. For example, the value of Ghana's fertilizer imports declined from $173 million in 2019 to $79 million in 2021 due to reduction in fertilizer import (Agbai, 2022). The quantity of fertilizer imports has further declined after the war due to high price of fertilizers. The high exchange rate and reduction in the supply of fertilizer from Russia may have contributed to this trend given that Russia ranked third in terms of countries that import fertilizer to Ghana in 2020 (Fertilizer, 2020). Ghana imports about 4% of NPK, 22% of Implications of the Russia-Ukraine war on agrifood systems in Ghana and policy responses for building a resilient food system  "}]},{"head":"Quantity (metric tons)","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":142,"text":"urea, 42% of muriate of potash, 11% of ammonium sulphate, and 11% of other fertilizers from Russia. Importers of fertilizers have struggled to get foreign exchange to import fertilizer to Ghana. The high indebtedness on the part of the government of Ghana to pay importers due to budget constraints and significant reduction in fertilizer subsidies contributed to the decline in importation and supply of fertilizers (Pauw, 2022). Despite the ease in supply concerns in the fertilizer market as of September 2022, most farmers were unable to buy fertilizer due to depreciation in the exchange rate (Agbai, 2022). Farmers in remote areas had challenges with fertilizer access, leading to a decline in the area under cultivation, use of less recommended fertilizer, and a shift in cultivation from high input crops (maize) to less fertilizer dependent crops (soybean).  Consumer price index (2018 = 100)"},{"index":2,"size":97,"text":"Figure 3 shows the consumer price index (CPI) for food. The highest decline in CPI for food occurred between July and September 2019 and has been rising after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war though there are periods with small declines. Based on year-to-year comparison, the CPI for food in February 2021 was 124.82 relative to 146.5 in February 2022, which is a 17% increase. The effect of food inflation on the economy cannot be underestimated. Most of the rural households in Ghana are net buyers of food and may be adversely affected relative to net sellers."},{"index":3,"size":103,"text":"and is projected to increase (Ouédraogo et al., 2021). About 66% of rice consumption is based on imports from Thailand, Vietnam, and India. Annual per capita consumption of maize is estimated at about 62 kg (Bua et al., 2020). Rice and maize are both included in the Ghana School Feeding Program (GSFP), so further increases in their prices have implications on Ghana's budget and food availability for children. Given that the domestic markets are well-integrated with international markets, any price shocks in international markets are transmitted to domestic markets. Inflation in food prices in exporting countries are transmitted to local markets in Ghana."},{"index":4,"size":85,"text":"Imported rice recorded the highest price increase over the study period followed by local rice, sorghum and maize. The prices of the crops increased sharply beyond the reference period (February 2022). The high exchange rate 1 may be contributing to the increase in the imported price of rice since the exchange rate imposes a restriction 1 Ghana is unable to generate enough foreign exchange through exports and is unable to borrow from the international capital market but rather borrow by issuing a dollar-denominated domestic bonds."},{"index":5,"size":20,"text":"This tends to deplete the country's foreign exchange reserves and depreciate the Ghanaian currency against major foreign currencies (Sarkodie, 2022)."},{"index":6,"size":122,"text":"The high cost of fertilizer, reduction in land under cultivation, and depreciation of the exchange rate has negatively impacted food production, which has in turn increased food prices. Figure 4 shows the prices of imported rice, maize, sorghum, and local rice from 2019 to 2023. Rice and maize are major staples in the diet of Ghanaians: annual per capita rice consumption is 38 kg  on the quantity of rice imports that can be supplied to Ghana. A high exchange rate coupled with the high cost of fuel are likely to increase food prices through import and transport mechanisms. Importers and producers are likely to transfer the higher cost of food imports and transportation to consumers, which would negatively impact household food security."},{"index":7,"size":113,"text":"Ghana currently consumes about 1.5 million metric tonnes of rice annually and mainly achieved through imports due to the limited quantities of local rice production (Ghana Standard Authority, 2023). Reduction in fertilizer supply may reduce area under crop production and subsequently increase the prices of locally produced food. However, the government is committed to establishing more farms to boost local rice production in partnership with the private sector. On 26 April 2023, the President of Ghana announced a €30 million facility support from the Austria Government to a private firm for the expansion of rice production enterprise in the country. The support is expected to boost local rice production and reduce rice import."}]},{"head":"Policy responses to build resilient food systems in Ghana","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":53,"text":"Ghana has not implemented new policies technically targeted to the agricultural sector. The outlined policies were as a result of the pre-and post-COVID-19 pandemic which has further been strengthened due to the drawback of the war on the economy. Figure 5 shows the policy and interventions pre and post the war. Expenditure cut."}]},{"head":"September 2018","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":9,"text":"Sign agreement to establish local fertilizer plant in Ghana."},{"index":2,"size":8,"text":"April Energy sector renegotiation. Reduce excess capacity payments."}]},{"head":"January","index":6,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Gold-for-oil policy Use gold to buy oil","index":7,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"May","index":8,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"E-leavy charges","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":72,"text":"The main interventions and policies implemented before the war are: (1) partnership with the Office Chérifien des Phosphates to establish a fertilizer plant to produce fertilizer locally, (2) fiscal management and widening of the tax revenue, and (3) development partners support to the agricultural sector. The main policy intervention in 2023 is the gold-for-oil policy. Details of the policies and interventions and their anticipated impact on the agricultural sector are outlined below."}]},{"head":"Domestic fertilizer production -The government of","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":55,"text":"Ghana in collaboration with the Moroccan phosphate producer, Office Chérifien des Phosphates, plan to produce fertilizer in Ghana by constructing an industrial fertilizer complex. Feasibility studies are complete, but the plant still has to be built (Agbai, 2022). Despite the delay, production of organic fertilizer from waste from the cocoa sector is slowly gaining momentum."},{"index":2,"size":159,"text":"2. Fiscal management -The government of Ghana implemented a 20% expenditure cut in January 2022 as part of its fiscal stabilization and debt sustainability measures after Parliament failed to approve key revenue streams at the appropriate time (done through the quarterly expenditure ceiling allotments to ministries, departments and agencies). Ghana's rising domestic debt was due to the large number of government appointees on the payroll, which was further worsened by the Russia-Ukraine war, leading to an increase in food and fuel prices, increase in general services, demand for salary increase, and the exchange rate. To reduce rising fuel prices and high cost of transporting agricultural commodities, the Government of Ghana in April 2022 renegotiated the Energy Sector independent power producers (IPPs) capacity charges to further reduce excess capacity payments by 20% to generate a total savings of GHS1.5 billion and reduce margins in the petroleum price build-up by a total of 15 pesewas per litre (Ministry of Finance, 2022)."},{"index":3,"size":83,"text":"3. Gold-for-Oil policy -This is an important macroeconomic intervention that enables oil importing firms and bulk distribution companies to use gold rather than the US dollars to buy petroleum products. The policy was announced in January 2023. It is expected to reduce the country's need for foreign currency by about USD 4.8 billion annually and result in significant savings on fuel prices. The policy is expected to stabilize fuel prices and thus reduce the cost of transporting food and subsequently stabilize food prices."}]},{"head":"Development partners support -The European Union and the United States Agency for International","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":60,"text":"Development have made financial commitments towards building a resilient food system in Ghana by committing up to USD 261 million in loans to expand financing to agribusinesses -including women-led small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the agricultural sector. The financial support is to enable agricultural enterprises scale up production in areas such as seed acquisition, fertilizer procurement and processing, among others."}]},{"head":"Conclusions","index":12,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":121,"text":"Ghana has been impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war as reflected in rising food prices and its exchange rate. In terms of the selected food commodities, imported rice witnessed the highest price increase after the war and followed by the prices of local rice, sorghum, and maize. Ghana's markets are well integrated into the global economy, such that external price shocks are easily transmitted to local markets. The volume of imported organic and inorganic fertilizers declined after the start of the war which has resulted in the reallocation of land among crops (mainly shifting away from maize) and reduction in cultivated area and fertilizer use. However, some policy responses outlined above include fiscal management, gold-for-oil, domestic debt exchange, and domestic fertilizer production."},{"index":2,"size":184,"text":"To create a more resilient food system in Ghana, there is the need to: (a) fast track the construction of the industrial fertilizer complex in Ghana to facilitate domestic production and access to the most vulnerable; (b) strengthen regional food system risk management, improve the sustainability of the productive base in targeted areas, and develop regional agricultural markets to facilitate trade and diversify export base; (c) prioritize self-sufficiency in local rice production by investing in irrigation and road infrastructure to facilitate all year-round production and market access and subsequently export the surplus; (d) develop agricultural technologies and deploy innovative strategies to catalyze the private-sector led industrialization drive; and (e) allocate more resources to the \"Planting for Food and Jobs\" Program which aims to modernize the agriculture sector to improve food security and reduce poverty in rural areas. However, there is the need to address bottlenecks (delay in payment to importers, perception of political interference in the subsidy program, lack of effective monitoring of the program, lack of logistical support for the regulatory bodies to effectively monitor fertilizer blends, and poor-quality seed) and improve targeting."}]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 1 . Figure1. Inorganic fertilizer (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) imported toGhana (2019Ghana ( -2022)   )     "},{"text":"Figure 3 . Figure 3. Ghana' s consumer price index for food (2019-2022) "},{"text":"Figure 4 . Figure 4. Food prices inGhana (2019Ghana ( -2022)   )     "},{"text":"Figure 5 . Figure 5. Timeline of Ghana' s policy responses to the Russia-Ukraine war "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":" Based on data from: AfricaFertilizer.org and Ghana Ministry of Food and Agriculture  350,000                  350,000  300,000                  300,000 Quantity (metric tons) 250,000 200,000 150,000                  Quantity (metric tons)250,000 200,000 150,000  100,000                  100,000  50,000                  50,000  0                  0  Dec 19 Feb 20 Apr 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21 Jun 21 Aug 21 Oct 21 Dec 21 Feb 22 Apr 22 Jun 22 Aug 22 Oct 22 Dec 22 Dec 19Feb 20Apr 20Jun 20Aug 20Oct 20Dec 20Feb 21Apr 21Jun 21Aug 21Oct 21Dec 21Feb 22Apr 22Jun 22Aug 22Oct 22Dec 22          Based on data from: AfricaFertilizer.org and Ghana Ministry of Food and Agriculture Based on data from: AfricaFertilizer.org and Ghana Ministry of Food and Agriculture  7,000                  7,000  6,000                  6,000  5,000                  5,000  4,000                  4,000  3,000                  3,000  2,000                  2,000  1,000                  1,000  0                  0  Dec 19 Feb 20 Apr 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21 Jun 21 Aug 21 Oct 21 Dec 21 Feb 22 Apr 22 Jun 22 Aug 22 Oct 22 Dec 22 Dec 19Feb 20Apr 20Jun 20Aug 20Oct 20Dec 20Feb 21Apr 21Jun 21Aug 21Oct 21Dec 21Feb 22Apr 22Jun 22Aug 22Oct 22Dec 22  Figure 2. Organic fertilizer imported to Ghana (2019-2022)            Figure 2. Organic fertilizer imported to Ghana (2019-2022)  "}],"sieverID":"3320662f-80b0-4b52-bc3b-3cccf8266984","abstract":"In 2022, about 850,000 Ghanaians were pushed into poverty and were food insecure due to increasing food prices and loss in purchasing power as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. exports from Russia into Ghana were predicted to be affected since 50% of domestic wheat demand in Ghana is supplied by Russia, France, and the US (Acheampong and Menyeh, 2022). Between June 2021 and April 2022, palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56% and 100% in This brief examines consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war on fertilizer and food commodities in Ghana and the policy actions related to agriculture and food systems Ghana enacted in response to the war. Content analysis of articles, published papers, and reports were utilized. Data on fertilizer and food prices are from AfricaFertilizer.org, Ghana's Ministry of Food and Agriculture, and the World Food Programme (WFP)."}

data/part_2/05bcd23addcfcd807c01c75bf65861fa.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"05bcd23addcfcd807c01c75bf65861fa","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/edd03726-5371-4972-8906-c49976c1fb9d/retrieve"},"pageCount":38,"title":"","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Parámetros del ciclo de vida","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":10,"text":"Procesos que determinan el ciclo de vida de los insectos "}]},{"head":"Modelos fenológicos de insectos","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":17,"text":"Herramienta analítica para la predicción, evaluación y entendimiento de las dinámicas poblacionales de insectos en los agro-ecosistemas"}]},{"head":"Concepto de modelamiento implementado en ILCYM","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":19,"text":"Programa \"Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM)\" Colección de datos de los ciclos de vida con temperaturas constantes y fluctuantes."},{"index":2,"size":71,"text":"Desarrollo de modelos fenológicos/poblacionales para las plagas de insectos (\"Model Builder\") Herramientas de validación del modelo Herramientas para el mapeo de riesgos con el uso de SIG Establecimiento de índices -Índices de generaciones -Índices de actividad -Índices de establecimiento Programa para el desarrollo de modelos fenológicos basados en la temperatura con aplicaciones regionales y evaluaciones de riesgo de plagas Uso del ILCYM * Técnica avanzada de modelamiento para poblaciones de insectos "}]},{"head":"Colección de datos","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":24,"text":"Tipos de datos en el generador de modelos de ILCYM a) Datos de la tabla de vida obtenidos a partir de diferentes temperaturas constantes."},{"index":2,"size":3,"text":"-\"complete\" o -\"incomplete\" "}]},{"head":"Colección de datos","index":5,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Datos grabados en una hoja de cálculo","index":6,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Estudios de cohortes","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":51,"text":"En el lado derecho (columna F+) se anota el número de individuos que se desarrollaron para la etapa siguiente; en la primera fila (línea 41) 6 de los 13 individuos se desarrollaron el día 9 y otros 4 el día 10 hasta la siguiente etapa. Tres individuos murieron durante el experimento."}]},{"head":"Cada fila contiene los datos obtenidos de una cohorte","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":29,"text":"Taller: Introducción y aplicación del software ILCYM para el modelamiento de la fenología de plagas y la evaluación de riesgo, 20 -22 Marzo, 2019, CIP, La Molina, Lima, Peru"}]},{"head":"Colección de datos","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":5,"text":"Parámetros del ciclo de vida  "}]},{"head":"Ajustar un modelo describiendo senescencia en relación a temperatura","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":21,"text":"Toma nota que los modelos para la senescencia adulta no son los mismos como los para el desarrollo en estadios inmaduras."}]},{"head":"Ajustar un modelo describiendo fecundidad en relación a temperatura","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":22,"text":"Es mejor ajustar el modelo a los valores transformados logarítmicamente porque la varianza en la fecundidad depende del promedio de la fecundidad."},{"index":2,"size":31,"text":"El mejor modelo se elige de acuerdo con criterios de información como AIC. Aplicación: Eficiencia de transmision de PYVV por T. vaporariorum y el efecto de la temperatura en la transmisión "}]},{"head":"Análisis de los datos","index":12,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Temperature dependant transmission efficiency PYVV by T. vaporariorum","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":2,"text":"Janish 1"}]},{"head":"g(T)=s f(T)=p q(T)=o","index":14,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":5,"text":"Tasa de supervivencia y transmisión"}]},{"head":"Oviposición total","index":15,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":2,"text":"Temperatura (°C)"},{"index":2,"size":122,"text":"Figura 3. Funciones (f, g & q) ajustadas a la tasa de transmisión, la tasa de supervivencia y la tasa de oviposición en el rango de temperatura indicado, mostrando diferentes temperaturas óptimas para el desarrollo de insectos y la transmisión del virus. Se resalta el área bajo las curvas con potencial de transmisión.  Las regiones donde el PAT es > 3 indican las condiciones de temperatura donde una cierta proporción de la población de T. vaporariorum puede transmitir el virus durante todo el año, representando las regiones donde el riesgo es mayor. En las zonas donde la PAT es inferior a 2, el riesgo de transmisión de PYVV se reduce, sin embargo, se mantiene el riesgo de presencia de virus (PAT> 0.2)."},{"index":3,"size":8,"text":"Figure1. Campos de papa mostrando sintomas de PYVV."},{"index":4,"size":44,"text":"Usando los mapas, se identificó una región en el oeste de Panamá que se predijo que tenía un alto riesgo de PAT (círculo rojo en la Fig. 4),PYVV aún no reportado, con la seleccion de la muestra se confirmó la presencia abundante del virus "}]}],"figures":[{"text":" ecología de plagas de insectos y su modelamiento…  Simulación de la dinámica de poblaciones  Evaluación del riesgo de plagas  Manejo Integrado de Plagas -Control biológico clásico: Identificación de lugares potenciales para la liberación de enemigos naturales -Simulación de frecuencia de aplicación (atracticida, biopesticida)  Cambio climático / planificación de la adaptación "},{"text":" y aplicación del software ILCYM para el modelamiento de la fenología de plagas y la evaluación de riesgo, 20 -22 Marzo, 2019, CIP, La Molina, "},{"text":"7. Ajuste de un modelo entre la edad normalizada femenina (tiempo de reproduccion) y las relaciones de oviposición acumuladas Desarrollo de mapas de riesgo de plagas utilizando ILCYM Estudios de tabla de vida A temperaturas constante y fluctuante: Oviposición, tiempo de supervivencia, tiempo de desarrollola propagación de virus transmitido dentro del modelo Determinar la eficiencia de transmisión de PYVV por T. vaporariorum y el efecto de la temperatura en la transmisión de virus Desarrollo de un modelo matemático para la temperatura dependiente de la transmisión de PYVV por T. vaporariorum Validación del modelo de transmisión bajo condiciones naturales. Calcular nuevos indices de Riesgo actuales y futuros relacionados a la transmisión del virus. "},{"text":" \uD835\uDC43\uD835\uDC43\uD835\uDC43\uD835\uDC43\uD835\uDC43\uD835\uDC43 (\uD835\uDC3A\uD835\uDC3A\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F,\uD835\uDC3A\uD835\uDC3A\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F) = ∑ ��\uD835\uDC5D\uD835\uDC5D \uD835\uDC58\uD835\uDC58 �(\uD835\uDC60\uD835\uDC60 \uD835\uDC58\uD835\uDC58 )� (\uD835\uDC3F\uD835\uDC3F \uD835\uDC58\uD835\uDC58 ) 365 \uD835\uDC58\uD835\uDC58=1 365En cada punto de datos geográficos, ILCYM usa las funciones f, g & q (Fig.3) para calcular el índice de transmisión anual potencial (PAT) y genera mapas de riesgo(Figs. 4   "},{"text":"Figura 4 . Figura 4. El riesgo de transmisión potencial anual prededecido para PYVV por T. vaporariorum en América Latina para el año 2000 (izquierda), el círculo rojo en el oeste de Panamá indica una región predecida con alto riesgo de transmisión del virus, se visitó la zona y se confirmo la presencia del virus; El mapa de la derecha muestra el cambio de este riesgo entre 2000 y 2050 (derecha). "},{"text":" Thanks Thanks CIP is a research-for-development organization with a focus on potato, sweetpotato and Andean roots and tubers. It delivers innovative sciencebased solutions to enhance access to affordable nutritious food, foster inclusive sustainable business and employment growth, and drive the climate resilience of root and tuber agri-food systems. Headquartered in Lima, Peru, CIP has a research presence in more than 20 countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. www.cipotato.org CIP is a CGIAR research center CGIAR is a global research partnership for a food-secure future. Its science is carried out by 15 research centers in close collaboration with hundreds of partners across the globe. www.cgiar.org CIP thanks all donors and organizations that globally support its work through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund: www.cgiar.org/funders This publication is copyrighted by the International Potato Center (CIP). It is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"aplicada en ILCYM: requerimientos, colección, organización, formato, etc.   "}],"sieverID":"db2a4d00-8de0-40a9-a6d3-a25cb057cf02","abstract":""}

data/part_2/05fca7391825472076ed24fb26a79e10.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"05fca7391825472076ed24fb26a79e10","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/dd603677-7b34-4c7d-b985-2db379f318a9/retrieve"},"pageCount":10,"title":"sequencing wild and cultivated cassava and related species reveals extensive interspecific hybridization and genetic diversity","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"r e s o u r c e","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":140,"text":"In this report we use \"cassava\" to refer to cultivated and/or domesticated varieties of M. esculenta, and the shorthand M. esc. flabellifolia for wild accessions 3 . We also shotgun-sequenced five Manihot accessions related to cassava, including three from the wild species M. glaziovii Muell. Arg., one named M. pseudoglaziovii Pax & K. Hoffman, and \"tree\" cassava, a suspected hybrid sometimes called M. catingea Ule 12,18 . The Ceará or India rubber tree species M. glaziovii, also domesticated in South America, was imported to East Africa in the early twentieth century. It is interfertile with cassava and has been used in African breeding programs to exploit the natural resistance of M. glaziovii to cassava pathogens 18 . To analyze genetic variation present in African varieties, we also characterized 268 cultivars of cassava using reduced representation genotypingby-sequencing (GBS) 19 (Table 2)."}]},{"head":"RESULTS","index":2,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Chromosome structure","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":531,"text":"To produce a high-quality chromosome-scale reference genome for cassava, we augmented our earlier draft sequence 20 of the reference genotype AM560-2 with additional whole genome shotgun sequencing and mate pair data, fosmid-end sequences, and a paired-end library developed using proximity ligation of in vitro reconstituted chromatin 21 (Methods and Supplementary Note 1). AM560-2 is an S3 line bred at Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) from MCOL1505 (also known as Manihoica P-12 (ref. 22). Compared with the previous draft 23 , the contiguity of our new shotgun assembly has more than doubled (N50 length 27.7 kb vs. 11.5 kb), and an additional 135 Mb is anchored to chromosomes 23 (Supplementary Note 1). To organize the sequence into chromosomes we integrated the shotgun assembly with a 22,403-marker consensus genetic map 23 and two other recently published maps 24,25 to produce 18 'pseudomolecules' that represent the 18 linkage groups of cassava (Supplementary Note 1). This draft genome encodes 33,033 predicted protein-coding genes, based on homology and transcriptome data for a variety of tissues and conditions (Supplementary Note 2); of these predicted genes, 96.6% are anchored to a chromosomal position. Gypsy transposable elements containing long terminal repeats comprise more than half of the 299. 3  Mb of repetitive sequence present in our assembly (Supplementary Note 2). An estimated 200 Mb of unassembled sequence includes highly repetitive centromeres and high copy repeats, but less than 1% of cassava genes (Supplementary Note 1). Other Manihot, including M. glaziovii (Ceará rubber tree); M. pseudoglaziovii, another nominally distinct tree species from Brazil; and \"tree\" cassava, presumed to be an M. glaziovii-M. esculenta hybrid 18 . In addition, our analysis includes the \"wild cassava\" W14 from Wang et al. 27 , which we identified as M. glaziovii.  Comparative analyses revealed the impact of paleotetraploidy 20,26,27 on the cassava genome (Fig. 1a). Analysis of the genomic distribution of paralogs reveals that the n = 18 linkage groups of cassava comprise five pairs of homologous chromosomes and two groups of four chromosomes that have undergone a series of breaks and fusions involving homologs. The genus Manihot belongs to the Euphorbiaceae, an angiosperm family that includes several other species with commercial importance including castor bean (Ricinus communis, 2n = 20), physic nut (Jatropha curcas, 2n = 22), and rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis, 2n = 36), which we estimate diverged from cassava ~35 million years ago (mya) (Supplementary Note 3). The shared chromosome number of cassava and rubber tree, roughly double the chromosome count of physic nut and castor bean, suggests that the paleotetraploidy present in cassava might be shared with Hevea 28,29 . Our analysis confirms this hypothesis, as both species have thousands of homologous gene pairs that diverged approximately 10 million years before the cassava-Hevea speciation (Fig. 1b and Supplementary Note 3). Analysis of single-or two-copy cassava genes with single-copy orthologs in Jatropha shows that 36.9% of genes duplicated by paleotetraploidy are retained in two copies in cassava (4,116/11,155 genes analyzed), with similar rates of retention on each of the pairs of homeologs (Supplementary Note 3). This phylogenetic analysis of euphorb genomes supports the early branching of the Ricinus lineage, agreeing with some genome-wide studies 27 but not others 30 ."}]},{"head":"Global genetic diversity","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":68,"text":"We used whole genome shotgun sequencing and GBS to sample the global diversity of cassava and its wild relatives as summarized in Table 1 and further described in Supplementary Dataset 1, and Supplementary Notes 4 and 5 . We also integrated into our analyses a pair of recently published Manihot sequences 27 . Our first-principles approach does not depend on pre-assigned species and is alert to possible introgression."},{"index":2,"size":139,"text":"Chloroplast sequences from the sequenced accessions separate into two deeply divergent clades representing distinct Manihot species (Fig. 2a). The M. esculenta clade includes only cassava and M. esc. flabellifolia accessions, whereas the M. glaziovii clade includes M. glaziovii and, surprisingly, M. pseudoglaziovii as well as the putative \"wild cassava\" W14 (ref. 27; but see below). Analysis of nuclear genome variation by principal component analysis (Fig. 2b) 31 and model-based clustering (FRAPPE) 32 (Fig. 2c) reveals three distinct clusters: (i) most cultivated cassava, grouped with two M. esc. flabellifolia (designated \"C/F\"); (ii) the remaining sampled accessions of M. esc. flabellifolia (\"F\"); and (iii) M. glaziovii (\"G\"), a cluster that also includes the putative \"wild cassava\" W14. Several accessions (e.g., Tree Cassava) occupy intermediate positions in principal component analysis and show mixed ancestry in model-based clustering; these are discussed further below."},{"index":3,"size":100,"text":"Accessions in the C/F cluster show a level of heterozygosity (0.84%, based on single-nucleotide variants (SNV) at callable loci, excluding runs of homozygosity) that is approximately twice the rate of homozygous differences as compared with the AM560-2 reference (Fig. 2d and Supplementary Notes 6 and 7). This is consistent with population-genetic expectation for a randomly mating population that includes the reference haplotype. Many of our nominally outbred cassava accessions show multiple short runs of homozygosity (mean 18 cM, median 8 cM), but this typically accounts for a small fraction of the genome in cassava (Supplementary Note 6, Supplementary Fig. 11)."},{"index":4,"size":550,"text":"Surprisingly, all but one (the Brazilian BRA 856) of the 39 distinct cultivated cassava accessions in our collection fall into two M. esculenta chloroplast (cpDNA) haplogroups that are present on all continents. Although some sharing of cpDNA haplotypes is due to the inclusion of close relatives in our sample (as detected by nuclear genome analysis; Supplementary Note 8), the extraordinarily limited cpDNA diversity in cultivated cassava suggests a substantial maternal bottleneck during domestication. Attempts to identify further nuclear genome substructure within the \"cassava\" group are described below. M. esc. flabellifolia accessions in the C/F cluster include FLA 433-2 from the Brazilian state of Rondônia, which has a variation profile indistinguishable from cultivated cassava (http://isa.ciat.cgiar. org/urg/cassavacollection.do; Fig. 2e), and cassava-like storage roots (Supplementary Note 4, Supplementary Fig. 5) although its cpDNA   does not match either of the two common cassava haplotypes. Its grouping with cassava is consistent with the haplotype analyses of Olsen and Schaal 3 , who found that cassava was domesticated in the western part of the southern Amazon region. FLA XXX-15 shares its cpDNA haplotype with cultivated cassava and also has a cassava-type nuclear genotype and cassava-like storage roots (Supplementary Note 4, Supplementary Fig. 5), but its sampling site is not recorded. Accessions in the F grouping include M. esc. flabellifolia samples from the more eastern portion of the southern Amazon basin. They show comparable levels of heterozygosity (0.61%) to those in C/F  npg r e s o u r c e but, in contrast to the C/F group, exhibit a substantially higher level of homozygous differences relative to the cassava reference AM560-2 (0.89% for F versus 0.44% for C/F; Fig. 2f and Supplementary Notes 6 and 7). This supports the identification of F as representing a subpopulation of M. esculenta differentiated from cultivated cassava, although in principal component analyses they form a broad distribution and show considerable heterogeneity. The M. esc. flabellifolia accessions in our F group are from the central Brazilian states of Goiás and Tocantins in the southern Amazon region, which were differentiated from cassava in the studies of Olsen and Schaal [3][4][5] . FLA 449-1, from Mato Grosso, lies between the F and C/F groups and is a mixed type according to FRAPPE (Fig. 2c). The second principal component characterizes interspecific variation within M. esculenta, and is correlated with the distance from the center of domestication (Supplementary Note 6, Supplementary Fig. 12). The discrete separation between C/F and F may be an artifact 31 of our limited geographic sampling of M. esc. flabellifolia, and we suspect, based on the findings of Olsen and Schaal [3][4][5] , that additional sampling would lead to a continuum representing the full intraspecific diversity of M. esculenta. In contrast to cultivated cassava accessions, wild M. esc. flabellifolia shows considerable cpDNA and no two samples in our collection share the same chloroplast haplotype, suggesting that we have not yet saturated coverage of wild M. esculenta cpDNA diversity. Finally, the G cluster of Manihot genomes, which includes the three M. glaziovii accessions, is strongly differentiated from the cassava reference (2.2% homozygous differences at genotyped positions; heterozygosity 0.71%; Fig. 2g and Supplementary Notes 6 and 7), and have related cpDNAs that are quite distinct (estimated divergence ~2-3 mya; Supplementary Note 6), from M. esculenta, as expected for accessions from a different species."},{"index":5,"size":120,"text":"Notably, the \"wild cassava\" W14 accession, which was put forward as a genomic reference for \"M. esculenta ssp. flabellifolia\" by Wang et al. 27 groups with our G cluster of M. glaziovii accessions based on both nuclear and cpDNA genome analyses (Fig. 2a-c,h). Wang et al. 27 note that W14 is unusual in that it \"produces a large number of fruits and is propagated only by seeds\" and has a \"lower rate of photosynthesis [than cassava] and very low storage root yield and starch content of the storage root.\" Our analysis suggests that   27 is in fact from an M. glaziovii accession, and that the diversity analysis presented in their study is dominated by interspecific variation rather than cassava domestication."}]},{"head":"Introgression and cassava diversity","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":144,"text":"We find widespread evidence for interspecific hybridization 22 and introgression, with mixed ancestry in cassava and its relatives, based on FRAPPE (Fig. 2c), intermediate position in principal component analysis (Fig. 2b) and genomic segments of high heterozygosity (as would be expected in interspecific hybrids; Fig. 3a). To resolve admixture events along chromosomes, we identified 1,055,571 biallelic ancestry-informative single-nucleotide markers that represent fixed, or nearly fixed, differences between M. esculenta (C/F plus F, together denoted as E) and M. glaziovii, and assigned segmental ancestry as either diploid M. esculenta (E/E), diploid M. glaziovii (G/G), or hybrid (G/E) using a maximum likelihood method (Fig. 3, Supplementary Note 7 and Supplementary Datasets 2 and 3). We were unable to assemble a sufficiently comprehensive set of variants to allow assignment of C/F or F ancestry across the genome, consistent with analysis of population structure in Supplementary Note 6."},{"index":2,"size":167,"text":"For example, \"tree\" cassava, grown around homesteads in Africa and whose leaves are eaten as a vegetable, is widely believed to be a natural hybrid of cassava and M. glaziovii 12,18,22 . Our analysis Manihot relatedness and haplotype ancestry. A PhyML 52 maximumlikelihood phylogenetic tree was constructed from Malvidae chloroplast sequences aligned with DIALIGN 53 , allowing timing of the divergence of M. glaziovii and M. esculenta (Supplementary Note 6). A minimal \"pants\" model 54 was used to calculate population genetic parameters of this divergence (Supplementary Note 10). SNVs were called by aligning reads to the reference genome with BWA-MEM 55 and genotyping with the HaplotypeCaller tool from GATK 56,57 . smartpca 31 and FRAPPE 32 software were used to estimate ancestral proportions (Supplementary Note 6). Pure individuals were used to identify ancestry-diagnostic SNVs. These SNVs were used to determine admixture in cassava accessions (Supplementary Note 7). IBD and p were calculated with PLINK 58 software to classify relatedness (e.g., parent-offspring, full sibling; see Supplementary Note 8)."},{"index":3,"size":38,"text":"Genotyping-by-sequencing of diverse African cassava. SNV genotypes were called from 271 accessions from three collections using GBS 23 with BWA 59 and the HaplotypeCaller tool from the GATK software package. IBD was calculated with PLINK (Supplementary Note 9)."}]},{"head":"ONLINE METHODS","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":134,"text":"Sequencing and assembly of AM560-2. Four Illumina whole genome shotgun fragment libraries were constructed from cassava accession AM560-2 DNA left over from Prochnik et al. 20 , and sequenced on Illumina HiSeq with 250-bp forward and 200-bp reverse reads. Leaves were collected from AM560-2 plants and high molecular weight DNA prepared for fosmid, mate pair and Dovetail \"Chicago\" libraries. The former two of these were sequenced on Illumina MiSeq and the latter on HiSeq. Assembly of shotgun, mate-pair and fosmid sequences with Platanus (v1.2.1) 50 ; further scaffolding by Dovetail Genomics (Santa Cruz, CA) 21 , and anchoring to a composite genetic map 23 generated an assembly on 18 chromosomes. The shotgun assembly captures more than 98.5% of cassava's protein-coding genes based on comparison with EST sequences. See Supplementary Note 1 for more detail."},{"index":2,"size":92,"text":"Annotation. De novo repeat finding in the assembly was performed with RepeatModeler v1.0.8 (http://www.repeatmasker.org/RepeatModeler.html), followed by masking with Repeatmasker (http://www.repeatmasker.org). RNA-seq data, together with 454 and Sanger ESTs, were used to reconstruct transcripts which were combined with homology-based gene predictions with PASA 51 to make gene models (Supplementary Note 2). Of the 33,033 predicted protein-coding genes, 11,872 and 29,274 have evidence for transcription or homology, respectively, over more than 50% of their length. 31,895 predicted protein-coding genes (96.6%) and 518.5 Mb (89.0% of the assembled sequence) are mapped to a chromosomal position."},{"index":3,"size":108,"text":"Whole genome duplication. Homologous segments were identified in the cassava genome by comparing all cassava proteins to each other and looking for runs of two or more paralogous genes (with up to six intervening genes) in separate regions of the cassava genome. Cassava genes in these duplicated regions were compared to proteins in Ricinus, Hevea, Jatropha, and Populus, and average corrected fourfold degenerate transversion (4DTv) rates were calculated between the species allowing reconstruction of a neighbor-joining phylogenetic tree and timing of species divergences, calibrated by fossil evidence. Average 4DTv from Hevea and cassava paralog pairs was used to place the whole genome duplication before speciation (Supplementary Note 3)."},{"index":4,"size":38,"text":"Global Manihot diversity. Tissue or DNA was obtained from 58 accessions of cassava and related Manihot from collections including South American, African, Asian, and Oceanian diversity (Supplementary Note 4). Whole genome shotgun fragment libraries were paired-end sequenced using"}]}],"figures":[{"text":"npg r e s o u r c e  "},{"text":"Figure 1 Figure 1 Manihot paleotetraploidy. (a) Conserved synteny between five pairs of chromosomes and two sets of four chromosomes is shown. The ten chromosomes arranged in the large upper circle illustrate 1:1 synteny between five duplicated pairs of chromosomes. Chromosomes are numbered with large black text and physical positions (in Mb) are noted in small black text. The chromosomes depicted in the two smaller circles each share syntenic regions with two other chromosomes, owing to chromosomal rearrangements that occurred after the whole-genome duplication. Pericentromeric regions are shaded on each chromosome, and syntenic segments between chromosomes are connected by gray bands. (b) Phylogeny of euphorbs and timing of genome duplication, inferred by comparing homologous divergences within Manihot and Hevea with orthologous divergences between species. Diamonds indicate the divergence between paralogous sequences within Manihot (red) and Hevea (purple). "},{"text":"npg r e s o u r c e  "},{"text":"Figure 2 Figure 2 Manihot genetic diversity. (a) Midpoint-rooted chloroplast genome phylogeny of sequenced Manihot accessions.Bootstrap values for nodes with support of 500 or more (out of 1,000) shown in red. For groups of accessions with identical nuclear and chloroplast genomes, only one accession is shown. Note that M. pseudoglaziovii and the \"wild cassava\" W14 group with M. glaziovii, and almost all cultivated cassava in our collection have one of two cpDNA haplotypes. The M. esc. flabellifolia form a sister clade to cassava with much greater apparent haplotype diversity. One outlier cassava, BRA 856 (asterisked), groups among the M. esc. flabellifolia, suggesting possible maternal ancestry/admixing with M. esc. flabellifolia. (b) Principal component analysis based on SNVs revealing distinct clusters of nuclear genome types associated with M. glaziovii (blue), cultivated cassava and some M. esc. flabellifolia (orange), and the remaining M. esc. flabellifolia (gray). The fraction of population variance explained by each principal component is in parentheses. (c) Model-based clustering of nuclear genomes identifies the same groupings as principal component analysis, and identifies some accessions as admixed. Each vertical bar represents the fraction of an individual's genome attributable to one or more hypothetical ancestral populations. Note, for example, that Tree Cassava lies between clusters in b and is identified as admixed in c. Color key as in b. (d-h) Histograms of SNV heterozygosity (gray) and homozygous non-reference SNVs (blue) in 500 kb windows for cultivated cassava accession Albert (d), M. esc. flabellifolia FLA 433-2 (e), M. esc. flabellifolia FLA 444-1 (f), M. glaziovii(R) (g), and the \"wild cassava\" W14 (h). Note the similarity between M. glaziovii and W14, and between FLA 433-2 and Albert. "},{"text":"Figure 3 Figure 3 Segmental ancestry of selected Manihot accessions. (a) Inferred ancestry of 18 admixed individuals determined from whole genome shotgun sequencing data. Orange indicates M. esculenta genotype (E/E); light blue indicates M. glaziovii (G/G); light green represents hybrid M. glaziovii/M. esculenta (G/ E). Dark green or black indicates presence of a shared M. glaziovii haplotype proposed to be inherited from the Amani program (G A ). Teal segments in MBRA 685 and MCOL 1468 on chromosome 2 behave anomalously and do not fit a model of M. glaziovii/M. esculenta admixture, but are likely hybrids of M. esculenta and another unknown Manihot species (E/U) (see b, or Supplementary Note 7). Light gray segments indicate no ancestry call could confidently be made. (b,c) Clustering of M. glaziovii and M. esculenta haplotypes in chromosome 1 from 30.1 to 32.6 Mb (b) and chromosome 1 from 22 to 23 Mb (c), showing haplotype sharing among six of seven African cassava varieties and among three South American cassava varieties, respectively. (d) Introgression plot, as in a, for accessions sequenced by GBS with 1% detected introgression or greater. Accessions are divided by population. The shared Amani haplotype appears enriched in the TMe and TMS populations. "},{"text":" r e s o u r c e the W14 sequence presented in Wang et al. "},{"text":"Table 1 Whole genome shotgun sequenced Manihot accessionsAsian and Asian Pacific cassava varieties from China, Australia, Fiji, and Vanuatu. In addition, our analysis includes KU50 from Thailand 27 . 12 sequenced, 10 distinct. Accession Location Accession Location AccessionLocationAccessionLocation \"M. flabellifolia\" Brazil FLA 496-1 Brazil a \"M. flabellifolia\"BrazilFLA 496-1Brazil a FLA 449-1 Brazil a FLA 503-2 Brazil a FLA 449-1Brazil aFLA 503-2Brazil a FLA 433-2 Brazil a FLA 490-1 Brazil a FLA 433-2Brazil aFLA 490-1Brazil a FLA 444-1 Brazil a FLA 502-1 Brazil a FLA 444-1Brazil aFLA 502-1Brazil a FLA 488-1 Brazil a FLA XXX-15 Unknown c FLA 488-1Brazil aFLA XXX-15Unknown c South American cassava cultivars intended to represent the diversity of the original domestication of cassava (including the AM560-2 reference accession). South American cassava cultivars intended to represent the diversity of the original domestication of cassava (including the AM560-2 reference accession). 7 sequenced, 7 distinct.    7 sequenced, 7 distinct. AM560-2 Colombia CM 507-37 Colombia AM560-2ColombiaCM 507-37Colombia MCOL22 Colombia 42 BRA 856 Brazil a MCOL22Colombia 42BRA 856Brazil a MBRA 685 Brazil 42 CM 3306-4 Colombia 43 MBRA 685Brazil 42CM 3306-4Colombia 43 MCOL 1468 Brazil 43   MCOL 1468Brazil 43 Albert Tanzania and Kenya 44 Akena Uganda 45 AlbertTanzania and Kenya 44AkenaUganda 45 Mkombozi Tanzania and Kenya 44 TME204 (TME419) Uganda; Togo; Nigeria 23 MkomboziTanzania and Kenya 44TME204 (TME419)Uganda; Togo; Nigeria 23 Nachinyaya Tanzania 23 Kibaha Tanzania NachinyayaTanzania 23KibahaTanzania Muzege Tanzania b EBW-2 (EBW-A) Uganda 46 ; Kenya and Uganda 44 MuzegeTanzania bEBW-2 (EBW-A)Uganda 46 ; Kenya and Uganda 44 NDL06/132 Tanzania 23 TME3 (TME7, TME14K) Nigeria 47 ; Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania 44 NDL06/132Tanzania 23TME3 (TME7, TME14K)Nigeria 47 ; Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania 44 Kiroba Tanzania 23 TME117 Nigeria 47 KirobaTanzania 23TME117Nigeria 47 Kibandameno Tanzania and Kenya 44 60444 West Africa 48 KibandamenoTanzania and Kenya 4460444West Africa 48 Aulizaye Mjinga Tanzania KBH 2006/18 Kenya Aulizaye MjingaTanzaniaKBH 2006/18Kenya SC8 China Merelesita Fiji SC8ChinaMerelesitaFiji UnkAus (TMS-I50395/Unk) Australia Me001Vu Vanuatu UnkAus (TMS-I50395/Unk)AustraliaMe001VuVanuatu SMI150 Australia Me002Vu Vanuatu SMI150AustraliaMe002VuVanuatu Avoca Australia Me003Vu Vanuatu AvocaAustraliaMe003VuVanuatu Nadelei(B) (Nadelei(U)) Fiji Me004Vu Vanuatu Nadelei(B) (Nadelei(U))FijiMe004VuVanuatu Mixed crosses. Improved varieties known to be derived from intentional crosses between wild, South American, African, and/or Asian varieties. 4 sequenced, 4 distinct. Mixed crosses. Improved varieties known to be derived from intentional crosses between wild, South American, African, and/or Asian varieties. 4 sequenced, 4 distinct. TMS-I30572 Tanzania/Brazil AR 40-6 Nigeria/Thailand 23 TMS-I30572Tanzania/BrazilAR 40-6Nigeria/Thailand 23 TMS-I972205 Tanzania/Brazil/Nigeria AR 37-80 Nigeria/Thailand 23 TMS-I972205Tanzania/Brazil/NigeriaAR 37-80Nigeria/Thailand 23  "},{"text":" Fifty-eight accessions were sequenced in total, and 52 distinct accessions remained after clones were excluded. Accessions listed in parentheses are those we determined to be clones. Two additional accessions were obtained from Wang et al.27 See Supplementary Dataset 1 for detailed sourcing, provenance, and phenotype information; SRA BioSample accession numbers; and sequencing statistics.    5 sequenced, 5 distinct. 5 sequenced, 5 distinct. M. glaziovii(R) Tanzania M. pseudoglaziovii PSE XXX-1 Unknown c M. glaziovii(R)TanzaniaM. pseudoglaziovii PSE XXX-1Unknown c M. glaziovii(S) Tanzania Tree Cassava Tanzania M. glaziovii(S)TanzaniaTree CassavaTanzania M. glaziovii GLA XXX-8 Unknown c   M. glaziovii GLA XXX-8Unknown c  "},{"text":"Table 2 Cassava accessions genotyped by sequencing Collection Collection  "},{"text":" Illumina HiSeq. The majority of libraries were sequenced with reads 200 bp or longer (Supplementary Note 5).                                                                                                       r e s o u r c e r e s o u r c e METHODS                                                                                                                            METHODS Methods and any associated references are available in the online                                                                            Methods and any associated references are available in the online version of the paper.                                                                                                                        version of the paper. Accession Codes. All Manihot whole genome shotgun sequence,                                                                            Accession Codes. All Manihot whole genome shotgun sequence, plus mate pair and fosmid sequence used for AM560-2 genome                                                                            plus mate pair and fosmid sequence used for AM560-2 genome assembly, as well as the v6.1 AM560-2 genome assembly itself, may                                                                            assembly, as well as the v6.1 AM560-2 genome assembly itself, may be found under BioProject PRJNA234389. Diversity GBS sequence is                                                                            be found under BioProject PRJNA234389. Diversity GBS sequence is deposited in BioProject PRJNA234391. The v6.1 AM560-2 genome                                                                            deposited in BioProject PRJNA234391. The v6.1 AM560-2 genome assembly described in this paper is also available at Phytozome                                                                            assembly described in this paper is also available at Phytozome (https://phytozome.jgi.doe.gov/Mesculenta).                                                                                            (https://phytozome.jgi.doe.gov/Mesculenta). Note: Any Supplementary Information and Source Data files are available in the                                                                             Note: Any Supplementary Information and Source Data files are available in the online version of the paper.                                                                                                                       online version of the paper. TMe-3758 TMe-3412 TMEB693 Unknown 1 (SN:8770) Unknown 18 (SN:8670) Unknown 3 (SN:8733) Fernando Moderno Mbaba H 39 TMe-3053 HBL95/05 Unknown 4 (SN:8653) TMS-I011797 TMEB1 TMe-3000 TMS-I920057 TMS-I9102312 TMS-I9102322 TMS-I980002 Unknown 10 (SN:8704) TMS-I011097 TMS-I070337 TMS-I920326 TMS-I920342 TMS-I930267 TMS-I920427 TMS-B9200061 TMS-I92B00068 TMS-I920067 TMS-I940020 TMEB12 TMEB3 TMEB14 TMEB7 TMS-I020452 TMS-I961632 TMS-I011371 TMS-I960603 TMS-I000388 TMEB419 TMEB225 TMS-I9102324 TMS-I9102324 I 91/2327 I 91/2324 TMS-I990554 TMS30395 TMS-I30555 TMS-I30572 IMM30025 MM96/0812 NDL90/034 Unknown 1 (SN:8767) Mzungu TMS-I011206 TMS-I972205 88/0554 Mbende H 58 MM01/3004 58308 TMS-I4(2)1425 TMS-I061348 TMS-I8200058 TMS-I010069 TMS-I071295 TMS-I011807 TMS-I020431 TMS-I000338 TMS-I940039 TMS-I91934 TMS-I070004 TMS-I010046 TMS-I011368 TMS-MM96JW1 TMS-I950289 TMS-I010034 TMS-I010040 Mzimbo Buana Unknown 2 (SN:8647) H 36 TMEB778 TMS-I061155 TMS-M980068 TMS-I070539 TMS-I061679 TMS-I061404 TMS-I980505 TMS-I070593 TMS-I061365 TMS-I070553 TMS-I980510 TMS-I061766 TMS-I011663 TMS-I011412 TMS-I070520 TMS-I061101 TMS-I061635 TMS-I062052 TMS-I980581 TMS-I940026 TMS-I011086 TMS-I070048 TMS-I000203 TMS-I071393 TMS-I062630 TMS-I071313 TMS-I990240 H B R 5 TMS-I961089A TMS-MM97JW2 TMS-I950166 TMS-I070094 TMS-I070134 TMS-I020131 TMS-I061856 TMS-I061744 TMS-I950211 TMS-I070299 TMS-I070258 TMS-I070126 TMS-I010085 TMS-I010131 TMS-I070045 TMS-MM961751 TMe-3758TMe-3412TMEB693Unknown 1 (SN:8770)Unknown 18 (SN:8670)Unknown 3 (SN:8733)Fernando ModernoMbabaH 39TMe-3053HBL95/05Unknown 4 (SN:8653)TMS-I011797TMEB1TMe-3000TMS-I920057TMS-I9102312TMS-I9102322TMS-I980002Unknown 10 (SN:8704)TMS-I011097TMS-I070337TMS-I920326TMS-I920342TMS-I930267TMS-I920427TMS-B9200061TMS-I92B00068TMS-I920067TMS-I940020TMEB12TMEB3TMEB14TMEB7TMS-I020452TMS-I961632TMS-I011371TMS-I960603TMS-I000388TMEB419TMEB225TMS-I9102324TMS-I9102324I 91/2327I 91/2324TMS-I990554TMS30395TMS-I30555TMS-I30572IMM30025MM96/0812NDL90/034Unknown 1 (SN:8767)MzunguTMS-I011206TMS-I97220588/0554MbendeH 58MM01/300458308TMS-I4(2)1425TMS-I061348TMS-I8200058TMS-I010069TMS-I071295TMS-I011807TMS-I020431TMS-I000338TMS-I940039TMS-I91934TMS-I070004TMS-I010046TMS-I011368TMS-MM96JW1TMS-I950289TMS-I010034TMS-I010040MzimboBuanaUnknown 2 (SN:8647)H 36TMEB778TMS-I061155TMS-M980068TMS-I070539TMS-I061679TMS-I061404TMS-I980505TMS-I070593TMS-I061365TMS-I070553TMS-I980510TMS-I061766TMS-I011663TMS-I011412TMS-I070520TMS-I061101TMS-I061635TMS-I062052TMS-I980581TMS-I940026TMS-I011086TMS-I070048TMS-I000203TMS-I071393TMS-I062630TMS-I071313TMS-I990240H B R 5TMS-I961089ATMS-MM97JW2TMS-I950166TMS-I070094TMS-I070134TMS-I020131TMS-I061856TMS-I061744TMS-I950211TMS-I070299TMS-I070258TMS-I070126TMS-I010085TMS-I010131TMS-I070045TMS-MM961751 doi:10.1038/nbt.3535                                                                                               nature biotechnology doi:10.1038/nbt.3535nature biotechnology  "}],"sieverID":"6c9b1e34-7570-483c-b6e9-d3bf857ca81e","abstract":"Cassava, also known as manioc, tapioca, and yuca, is a widely grown drought-tolerant crop that can be cultivated on marginal soils and can produce high yields in favorable growing conditions. Its starch-filled storage roots provide a major source of calories in tropical regions 1 . The likely wild progenitor of cultivated cassava is M. esculenta ssp. flabellifolia (Pohl), a woody perennial shrub that is found throughout the Amazon basin 2-5 . Although domesticated over 6,000 years ago 6-10 , cassava cultivation spread beyond South America only in the past 500 years, exported by European colonialists and slave traders 11 . Nowadays, cassava is one of the most widely cultivated tropical crops, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where it has undergone additional improvement through introgression and focused breeding, with the primary aims of conferring disease tolerance and increasing yield 12,13 .Cassava can outcross but is commonly clonally propagated, and harbors considerable genetic load 14 . The reliance on clonal propagation and the limited diversity of African cassava germplasm make it particularly susceptible to the spread of viral and bacterial diseases such as cassava mosaic disease (CMD), cassava brown streak disease (CBSD), and cassava bacterial blight 15,16 . In contrast to African varieties, Thai elite varieties retain considerable diversity 17 . Genetic improvement through conventional breeding in cassava is a challenging and lengthy process, owing to the 12-month cropping cycle, limited seed set of elite varieties, asynchronous flowering and most importantly, the long breeding cycle, which mainly results from the slow clonal multiplication rate (around 1:5 to 1:10 per generation), coupled with the need to obtain phenotypic data in replicated trials. Development of genomic resources, such as a chromosome-scale reference sequence, increased understanding of the cassava gene pool (including wild relatives), and insights into population structure, is expected to accelerate progress in basic biological research and genetic improvement.We report the chromosome-scale structure of the cassava genome and its formation by an ancient whole-genome duplication that is shared with the rubber tree genus Hevea. To better understand the global genetic diversity of cultivated cassava and its wild relatives, we sequenced 53 cultivated and wild accessions of M. esculenta from South America, Africa, Asia, and Oceania using whole genome shotgun methods (median 63-fold, range 19-to 168-fold) (Table 1)."}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"062a9b7bd42efa734cd55c016c34433b","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/77d78156-3972-45cf-b46c-9392a58dbf6a/retrieve"},"pageCount":8,"title":"","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Introduction","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":102,"text":"Agriculture in African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries faces numerous constraints to competitiveness, including weaknesses in extension services, market access and supply chains, disaster management and early warning systems, food safety and traceability, financial inclusion, insurance and risk management, and policy management. It also suffers from low yields, high post-harvest losses and high cost of labour and other inputs. Many of these can be addressed through digital technologies such as cloud computing, mobile networks, Internet of things, artificial intelligence, aerial images from satellites or drones, weather forecasts and soil sensors. This has the potential to boost the performance of the agriculture sector."},{"index":2,"size":45,"text":"The typical approach to digital agricultural interventions in ACP countries has been for donors to support agri-tech start-ups, including testing of business models to deliver fee-based digital agriculture services to farmers. Many of these efforts have focused on smallholder farmers but few have proved sustainable."},{"index":3,"size":31,"text":"Reviews point to some key issues that influence the sustainability of projects: project design, implementation arrangements and post-completion arrangements (Table 1). Addressing these should enhance the sustainability of digital agriculture projects. "}]},{"head":"Factors influencing the sustainability of digital agriculture projects","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":44,"text":"A recent CTA publication (Shepherd, 2016) evaluating the performance of digital agriculture projects using agri-tech start-ups found several factors that influence sustainability of these projects. These included poorly designed business models; technology-focused rather than user-centric design approaches; poor implementation arrangements; and inadequate post-completion arrangements."}]},{"head":"Poorly designed business models","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":16,"text":"The studies found that project business models commonly were not based on a sound understanding of:"},{"index":2,"size":18,"text":"n client segments, how products/services can be targeted to each segment, each segment's ability and/or willingness to pay;"},{"index":3,"size":8,"text":"n appropriate product pricing and product bundling strategies;"},{"index":4,"size":16,"text":"n the most effective payment methods for each customer segment; and/or n benefits of strategic partnerships."},{"index":5,"size":19,"text":"There is also inadequate attention to 'non-technical' business processes such as product introduction, marketing, customer communications and financial management."}]},{"head":"Technology-focused versus user-centric design approaches","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":70,"text":"Some digital agriculture solutions are not appropriate to the needs of the target farmers, leading to farmer dissatisfaction with the digital agriculture services delivered by the start-up. This may stem from a technology-focused approach rather than a user-centric approach to designing solutions (and business models) where there is inadequate participation by customers in the design of the services and in the testing and validation of business models before business start-up."},{"index":2,"size":4,"text":"Experience capitalisation series 3"},{"index":3,"size":25,"text":"Managing the sustainability of digital agriculture projects \"Some digital agriculture solutions are not appropriate to the needs of the target farmers, leading to farmer dissatisfaction.\""}]},{"head":"Implementation arrangements","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":64,"text":"The most common failing in implementation arrangements is inadequate attention to monitoring and evaluating business performance. Projects commonly allocate insufficient resources to monitoring operating costs, revenue, customer satisfaction, managerial capacity, operating systems and such like. They also fail to adjust levels of business development support provided under the implementation phase to ensure that the start-up is sufficiently robust by the time the project ends."}]},{"head":"Post-completion arrangements","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":59,"text":"The reviews found that projects are paying too little attention to the business environment and strategic linkages. There is also too little emphasis on creating a moreenabling policy, legislative, regulatory and institutional framework for the operations of the start-ups. This might include, for example, policies and/or legislation related to drones or public-private partnerships for the delivery of e-extension services."},{"index":2,"size":34,"text":"Projects are also not giving adequate attention to establishing the strategic partnerships or linkages that are important to the survival and growth of the start-up, including with public-or private-sector partners, financial institutions and policy-makers."}]},{"head":"Guidelines to manage project sustainability for digital agriculture projects","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":4,"text":"Managing for sustainability includes:"},{"index":2,"size":23,"text":"1. developing a sustainability plan (or exit strategy) during the design phase that is aimed at achieving the conditions necessary for sustainability (sustainability"}]},{"head":"\"The promised revolution of the agriculture sector through private-sector-led introduction of digital technologies will only be realised if digital agriculture interventions give more attention to managing for project sustainability.\"","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":7,"text":"readiness) before the completion of the project;"},{"index":2,"size":22,"text":"2. executing the sustainability plan during the implementation phase, taking any corrective actions necessary to achieve sustainability readiness by project completion; and"},{"index":3,"size":16,"text":"3. verifying sustainability readiness (including the adequacy of postcompletion arrangements) as a part of project close-off."},{"index":4,"size":17,"text":"Managing for sustainability is a participatory process that includes all stakeholders with a role in achieving readiness."},{"index":5,"size":60,"text":"The promised revolution of the agriculture sector through private-sector-led introduction of digital technologies will only be realised if digital agriculture interventions give more attention to managing for project sustainability. Sustainability is not easy but neither is it unattainable. We can, however, build on the lessons learned to date and plan for sustainability, monitor sustainability readiness and verify achievement at close-off."}]},{"head":"Plan for sustainability","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":10,"text":"The steps involved in planning for sustainability include the following:"},{"index":2,"size":32,"text":"1. Assess (i) the needs and/or expectations of all key stakeholders, including each customer segment; and (ii) the environment (policy, legislative, regulatory and institutional) in which the digital agriculture start-up will operate."},{"index":3,"size":16,"text":"2. Identify the results to be achieved by the start-up and the project by project completion."},{"index":4,"size":52,"text":"3. Identify the conditions that are required to sustain the delivery of services to each customer segment, including smallholder farmers, beyond project completion (i.e. conditions that represent sustainability readiness). These may include political support; strong customer satisfaction and commitment; financial selfsufficiency; fully functioning business systems; a more-enabling business environment; and strategic partnerships."},{"index":5,"size":17,"text":"4. Identify the risks to achieving sustainability readiness by project completion and actions to mitigate these risks."},{"index":6,"size":39,"text":"5. Formulate a sustainability plan detailing the conditions that represent sustainability readiness, indicators to signify that these conditions have been achieved, and the actions to be taken to achieve these conditions on or before the point of project completion."}]},{"head":"\"We are trying a bold experiment to further transform the agricultural sector. We are injecting agri-tech start-ups into agricultural value chains with the expectation that these enterprises can make a sustainable contribution to improving competitiveness.\"","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":47,"text":"6. Integrate the elements of the sustainability plan into the project design (which may lead to changes in original decisions related to scope and duration of the project, or changes to the criteria for the selection of entrepreneurs to ensure achievement of sustainability readiness at project completion)."}]},{"head":"Monitor sustainability readiness","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":99,"text":"Progress towards sustainability readiness should be actively monitored during the implementation phase, taking any corrective actions necessary to achieve readiness at project completion. For the agri-tech startup, one indicator might be the level of customer growth. During implementation, the team should be asking \"What is the current level of customer growth and how does it compare with projections to achieve sustainability?\" If the growth rate is seriously lagging projections, it may mean that there is a requirement for more research on customer needs and for tweaking the business model to improve the service and approach to reaching the customer."}]},{"head":"Verify achievement at close-off","index":12,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":15,"text":"The final step is to check for and verify that sustainability readiness has been achieved"},{"index":2,"size":68,"text":"as part of the project close-off process. It is important to check all the conditions for sustainability, including the softer/nonfinancial ones such as \"strategic linkages established\" or \"all related intellectual property is adequately protected.\" Sometimes a project must be brought to a close before all conditions for sustainability have been achieved. When this occurs, a list of follow-up actions should be prepared for implementation by the start-up post-project."}]},{"head":"Putting it all together","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":105,"text":"We are trying a bold experiment to further transform the agricultural sector. We are injecting agri-tech start-ups into (formal or informal) agricultural value chains with the expectation that these enterprises can make a sustainable contribution to improving competitiveness. A sustained contribution, however, means that the start-up must itself be sustainable. As we move forward with this bold experiment, it is incumbent on us all to realise that the future competitiveness of the agricultural sector may well be determined by how well we grasp these fundamental concepts related to project sustainability as we explore the potential benefits that digital technologies can bring to the agricultural sector."}]},{"head":"About the series","index":14,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":42,"text":"CTA Technical Briefs document experience and learning in topical issues of interest to the ACP agricultural development community. They are intended as a practical guide for people involved in an issue professionally or for people with a strong interest in the topic."},{"index":2,"size":26,"text":"Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation P.O. Box 380 -6700 AJ Wageningen -The Netherlands Tel: +31 (0) 317 467 100 | E-mail: [email protected] | www.cta.int"}]}],"figures":[{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "}],"sieverID":"34b23924-6cda-48ba-8d44-4f853c94d5f9","abstract":"Managing the sustainability of digital agriculture projects 3) verify that indicators of sustainability have been achieved during the project close-off process. The recent CTA workshop on 'catalysing actionable knowledge to enhance next-generation ACP agribusiness through digitalisation' identified five intersecting drivers that explain what farmer-oriented agribusiness expect to achieve by investing in digitalisation: reduce risk, raise productivity, increase efficiency, improve decisions, and enhance market access. Participants argued that digital interventions all serve one or more of these, depending on specific local needs and situations. A critical factor underpinning what works in all these areas is the economic sustainability of the business models used to deliver value and services. This brief by Valarie Pilgrim argues that the sustainability of digital agribusiness projects can be enhanced through three main steps: 1) plan for sustainability in the initial project design, 2) monitor sustainability readiness throughout the life-cycle of the project, and Experience capitalisation series18 CTA Technical Brief"}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"065a427e2ff28bfe89186f8770b15812","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/cd14bcea-ad68-4400-926e-2ae0250d08da/retrieve"},"pageCount":20,"title":"Partnerships for enhancing Market-led Innovation processes -Experiences and Lessons from IPMS Ethiopia","keywords":["Ethiopia","Innovation system","partnerships","knowledge","linkages","market-orientation","process","technology","service delivery","institutions"],"chapters":[{"head":"Introduction","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":136,"text":"In Ethiopia, 84% of the estimated 70 million people live in rural areas and depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. The sector contributes 41.4% of the Gross Domestic Product of the country. The average cereal yields are low at 1244 kg/ha (World Bank 2006b). Livestock productivity is lower than most other countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The use of improved agricultural technologies is limited and mechanisation is negligible. As a result, average per capita income is estimated at USD 110 per annum, with about 45% of the rural population living on income below the poverty line of one USD per day (World Bank 2006b). Many rural families suffer from chronic food insecurity and are extremely vulnerable during periodic drought. Inefficient and inappropriate use of soil, water and vegetation contribute to degradation of Ethiopia's natural resources (IPMS 2004)."},{"index":2,"size":246,"text":"Ethiopia, which was a net exporter of grains and legumes about half a century ago, is now confronted with the challenge of keeping food production at pace with its population growth, preventing declining per capita food production, and reducing its dependence on food aid. Despite demonstrated potential to boost agricultural production, sustaining productivity increase has not been achieved (Gebremedhin et al. 2006). The agricultural imports still exceed exports resulting in a trade deficit of 43 million $ in 2004. The agricultural growth rates actually fell from 2% during 1990-99 to 0.9% during 2000-04. The crop production index in 2004 was 110 and that of livestock, 116 with food production per capita increasing to only 102, all from a base of 100 in 1999-01. Only 2.5% of the cultivated land is irrigated (World Bank 2006 b). Ethiopia adopted an Agricultural Development-led Industrialization (ADLI) strategy, which initially focused on food crops and NRM. More recently, the country has added market orientation to this strategy (Gebremedhin et al 2006). Increased availability and utilisation of appropriate technologies, an effective and efficient service delivery system and, sustained demand for the agricultural outputs are critical in such market-oriented agricultural development efforts. However, the infrastructural development is also rather limited which is a major bottleneck. Only 17% of the rural population lives within 2 km of an all season road and only 0.4% has access to electricity (World Bank 2006 b). However, Ethiopia is embarking on a huge rural electrification scheme currently (http://www.eepco.gov.et/)."},{"index":3,"size":117,"text":"A number of key ingredients are necessary for achieving market orientation and also making this process inclusive. Innovation, defined here as putting available knowledge from multiple sources to economic use, is critical for this to happen. Partnerships are vital for innovation processes. This paper looks at the case of an on-going project in Ethiopia which has been designed to develop options in support of the government strategy on agriculture for accelerating the transformation. The project has been in operation only since 2005 and the lessons are just emerging. The role of partnerships for market-led innovation in selected sectors for development of priority marketable commodities and the lessons learnt so far will be the focus of this paper."}]},{"head":"The policy context and strategies for attaining market orientation","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":63,"text":"The overall development strategy of Ethiopia is based on the expansion of a strong free market economic system with markets expected to lead production. Technology development and Extension, markets and the demand side development, Institutional competence and performance and, integrated and co-ordinated service delivery are some strategies which are crucial to making market orientation of agricultural sector a reality (Puskur and Hagmann 2006)."},{"index":2,"size":55,"text":"The government strategy envisions that the technological interventions will be agroecology based and the major source will be adaptive research of existing technologies developed by the national and/or international research systems. As a long-term target, the strategy envisions the creation of educated farmer population, through primary education and the use of Farmer Training Centers (FTCs)."},{"index":3,"size":198,"text":"In support of the market oriented strategy, the MoARD has embarked on developing a strategic plan for export market oriented crops (wheat, barley, tef, lentil, chickpea, faba and haricot beans, cotton, sesame, coffee and spices) and livestock (dairy, meat, poultry, apiculture, sericulture, fisheries, skins and hides) commodities. Reflecting the importance attached to agricultural marketing, the Government has embarked upon major institutional restructuring in order to strengthen agricultural production and marketing under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MoARD). Initiatives include the appointment of the State Minister for Agricultural Marketing and reorganization of marketing responsibilities within the regional bureaus. The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) also established the Ethiopian Export Promotion Agency (EEPA), which is now a Department in the Ministry of Trade and Industry. In addition to the various Federal organizations that are mandated with agricultural marketing support services; some regional states have established regional level agricultural marketing support agencies. Several options are being promoted by the government to increase the farmer's income from marketing and processing, including the formation of cooperatives and better access to market information. The role of the MoARD in facilitating the provision of information at the farm level is still to be developed."},{"index":4,"size":94,"text":"Even though the Government has market orientation as a goal for its agricultural sector, no specific strategies have been put in place or elucidated which will help the country and the sector attain that goal. Most past development efforts have been geared to increasing food production within an institutional framework which had a high degree of control by government institutions with no approach to actively include private sector and other players. The macro level policy, not supported by activities at the ground level, has not made much headway and it has remained a rhetoric."},{"index":5,"size":95,"text":"The country has witnessed several efforts in this direction from various quarters, despite this shortcoming. Ethiopian research in the past decade has become responsive to market demands and has started developing/testing varieties which are suitable for the export market. The role of farmers in the generation of new technologies was duly recognized by researchers and the former have become major partners in technology development processes. However, mainstreaming of these ideas through the extension system left much room for improvement, especially since the package approaches introduced by the MoARD did not offer much scope for learning."},{"index":6,"size":135,"text":"In the last two years, a range of changes in the institutional and external environment have begun to take place. For example, rural extension services are on the threshold of a major shift in extension service delivery through the Farmer Training Centre (FTC) system. To equip the FTCs (one planned in each peasant association) with adequate skilled human resources, the government started the Agricultural Technical and Vocational Education and Training Institutes (TVETs) and the graduates are now populating the FTCs as development agents in each peasant association. This presents a huge opportunity but also poses a major challenge as these institutions also need to transform to be able to successfully implement an alternative, market-based approach to agricultural development. Rethinking the role of the extension services to support the goal of achieving market orientation is vital."},{"index":7,"size":164,"text":"A necessary and integral part of the technology introduction services is the provision of improved inputs/services such as seeds, seedlings, agro chemicals, drugs, veterinary services, heifers, artificial insemination, credit, production and processing tools. Most of these inputs were supplied through the agricultural offices linked to the packages. While this has contributed to the development of agriculture, several sources indicate that improved inputs/services are usually in short supply and delivery is often untimely. Government policy is now stimulating diversification of input/service provision, involving private sector (Gebremehin et al 2006, Azage et al 2006). This shall also require enhancing the capacity of the small input producers/suppliers. Though there have been several efforts on various fronts, they are not co-ordinated and have not led to perceptible impact. The challenge, therefore, is to develop a knowledgebased system which is capacitated and responsive to markets with linkages between different partners in development and improved development processes, including technology introduction, and input/output marketing to facilitate the development of marketable commodities."},{"index":8,"size":70,"text":"Recognising this and to support the government initiatives, the MoARD embarked on the 'Improving Productivity and Market Success (IPMS)' project for Ethiopian farmers, which is donor-supported and implemented by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) on behalf of the MoARD. This Research for Development project is presently being implemented in eight woredas (equivalent of districts) in four regions in the country, which vary widely in their demographics and cultural contexts."}]},{"head":"Piloting options for learning -The IPMS project","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":92,"text":"The IPMS project proposes to 'contribute to improved agricultural productivity and production within functional market-oriented agricultural production systems, as a means for achieving improved and sustainable livelihoods for the rural population'. This is aimed to be achieved through a multi-pronged strategy with activities that, a) strengthen innovative knowledge management systems, b) strengthen capacity of men and women farmers, pastoralists, CBOs, public and private agricultural institutions c) improve productivity and production through introduction of innovative technologies and service delivery systems d) develop strategies, policy, technology and, institutional options from research and lessons learned."},{"index":2,"size":62,"text":"The objectives of the project reflect its focus -generating knowledge on how to use knowledge from multiple sources better for translation into economic benefits for farmers, with capacity strengthening of both institutions and individuals as the major plank. The project intends to draw lessons (both context-and location-specific and also generic) for institutional, technology and policy options in various contexts from this experience."},{"index":3,"size":224,"text":"The project adopts the Innovation systems approach as its organizing principle. It essentially acknowledges that there are multiple sources of innovation which include the traditional sources (indigenous technical knowledge); modern actors (NARIs, IARCs, other RIs), private sector including agro-industrial firms and entrepreneurs (local, national and multinationals); civil society organizations (NGOS, farmers and consumer organizations, pressure groups); and those institutions (laws, regulations, beliefs, customs and norms) that affect the process by which the innovations are developed and delivered. The project focus is on analyzing how knowledge is exchanged and how institutional and technological change occurs in a given society by examining the roles and interactions of diverse agents involved in the research, development and delivery of innovations at all levels. Recognising the critical role of capacity strengthening, the project is striving to understand the appropriate strategies for capacity strengthening of different actors to increase the responsiveness and innovativeness of the system. The IPMS project deploys use of partnerships and networks in an Innovation Systems framework, along with promotion to encourage complementary investments in necessary areas and sectors to generate impact. New and/or innovative approaches to production, NRM, technology transfer, input supply, credit and output marketing are being introduced and adapted. Such innovations are linked to market demands and the capacity of the communities and its individual members to handle such innovations in a sustainable manner."}]},{"head":"Interventions for market-led agricultural development","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":17,"text":"The following steps were followed in identifying interventions to be taken up by IPMS to develop market-orientation."},{"index":2,"size":94,"text":"a. Initial consultations were held with partners from the Ministry of Agriculture at Federal and Regional levels and Institutes of the Ethiopian Agricultural Research System to identify potential woredas for the project operation and marketable commodities in each of these. b. An assessment of the biophysical situation of the woredas was taken up and two farming systems per woreda were delineated. A preliminary study of institutions engaged in marketing, input supply, rural finance, Extension and, Gender and HIV/AIDS service was undertaken. The state of NRM and environmental issues were also addressed in this study."},{"index":3,"size":116,"text":"c. Priority commodities to be targeted for market-oriented development in the two farming systems (Table 1) were then identified in most PLWs through consultation with the Federal, Regional and Woreda stakeholders in each of the Pilot Learning Woredas (PLWs). d. A Participatory Rural Appraisal was employed to understand the production, input supply and marketing constraints with regard to each of the selected priority commodities. Potential interventions were identified to address these constraints along with a preliminary identification of partners who could help address the problems. e. These options were then discussed in a workshop with stakeholders which included farmers. They were then modified/refined/enhanced based on feedback received and accepted as directions for the project to implement."},{"index":4,"size":83,"text":"This exercise resulted in a specific set of interventions spanning key areas like technology development / introduction, input supply, marketing and, capacity building for each of the priority commodities in each of the woredas following a commodity value chain approach, based on the constraints to be released and the local context and potential partnerships. The range of commodities in the eight woredas for the different farming systems and the broad areas of intervention for these sets of commodities are presented in Table 1. "}]},{"head":"Analysis of Partnerships","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":125,"text":"To enable the interventions, various partnerships were forged in the PLWs for different commodities, based on the felt needs. To analyse the partnerships and innovation processes until now, this paper will focus on some specific cases which mainly address major areas of intervention as presented in Table 2. Metema Banana: A specific variety of banana (Cavendish dwarf) is in demand in the local markets within the and outside of the district and the supply comes from areas in the South of Ethiopia. The agro-ecology was found to be suitable for production of this variety. However, technical know-how and genetic material were not locally available. This required facilitation to access inputs in the form of suckers, training in production and management and, linkage creation for marketing."},{"index":2,"size":95,"text":"Fogera onion: Onion is a crop with expanding markets and fetches high prices in Fogera and nearby areas. Fogera plains with their irrigation potential offer a huge advantage for vegetable production. Farmers responded to the market signals and have been intending to expand their onion production after harvesting rice. However, obtaining good quality planting material (seed and bulbs) in time and in required quantities has been difficult due to limitations in the OoARD's input supply system. The farmers who were members of co-operatives had a marginal advantage with the union supplying some amount of seed."},{"index":3,"size":55,"text":"A rapid market assessment also revealed the huge market for onion seed locally and in the Region. A strategy was then formulated to develop a farmer-based onion seed supply system, with various actors coming together. This included training in onion seed production, marketing and seed business; accessing better varieties of onions and; creating market linkages."},{"index":4,"size":211,"text":"Ada Dairy: The dairy co-operative in Ada is the largest in the country. However, all its members are from the town in which it is located or from the peri-urban areas. Presently the cooperative has a plan to expand its operation which will require a substantial increase in the amount of milk supplied to the co-operative. There is a considerable amount of milk production with some crossbreds in rural areas around the town. The local markets could not absorb the milk produced by these dairy farmers, most of whom were women. They churned the milk to make butter and then sold it in nearby towns at any price that was offered. Their returns did not justify their labour and management investments. The women farmers said they regulated the amount of fodder they provided to their cows to control milk production to reduce the time they spent in churning the milk. Recognising this opportunity, interventions were initiated to organise these farmers and link them to the co-operative to make them members leading to establishment of local milk collection centers, training in modern dairy production and management to improve quality and quantity of production and, establishment of privately managed bull station to contribute to breed improvement and increased milk production in the area."},{"index":5,"size":87,"text":"Alamata fattening: Abergele International Private Limited Company (AIPLC) established a holding area in Alamata, with some production facilities to contribute to its meat exporting activities. The PLC intends to capitalise on the high livestock population in Alamata and neighbouring woredas and seeks to develop contract farming. Realising this opportunity, a platform was created to facilitate this. This is the youngest intervention among the cases being studied, but appears very promising. The OoARD sees a huge opportunity for its farmers, in this food insecure woreda through livestock development."},{"index":6,"size":25,"text":"Strategies are being developed and implemented including mobilising farmers and facilitating groups for contract farming, training in modern fattening practices, feed resources development and management."},{"index":7,"size":61,"text":"The form of innovation in these cases and the triggers are summarised in Table 3. The actor linkage matrices (Annexes 1, 2, 3 and 4) indicate the various actors involved and the roles they play. One can also glean the knowledge flows between various actors from these matrices. A summary of the analysis of these matrices is presented in Table 4."},{"index":8,"size":120,"text":"It is interesting to note that though they involve a broad spectrum of public and private actors, private sector still plays a limited role in almost all cases. The financial sector has not been able to play any role so far, given that all these emerging enterprises do not fall in their traditional loaning sectors. The importance of actors has also been varying over time and as the partnerships emerge. In most cases, even though external agents like IPMS played the catalytic role initially, the government and farmers became important player subsequently, driving the process. Farmers demanding technology and service support is increasingly becoming visible. Analysing some of these partnerships in-depth brings us to the findings presented in Table 5. "}]},{"head":"Lessons learnt so far","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":167,"text":"Configuration of actors: It is important to vision an innovation system and take care to involve all the relevant actors. The involvement of actors might well be situational, but it is important not to leave out crucial actors, especially decision makers. It is also important to be aware of the policy context in which innovations have to occur. A case in point is Onion seed in Fogera. In the first instance, the BoARD input supply department which is the official seed certification agency was not informed of the efforts to encourage onion seed production by farmers. The written and gazetted policy of the Region which specifies that seed producers have to be at least Diploma holders was not known widely. So, the initiative suffered a huge setback in the first year when the BoARD refused to certify the seed for sale in the market. This was rectified after negotiations during the following year. This underlines the importance of taking up a systematic stakeholder analysis at the outset."},{"index":2,"size":97,"text":"Institutions: The diversity of partnerships evolved reveals that they are a response to a unique set of circumstances and challenges to address in specific contexts. The changing institutional landscapes and increasing complexity of development challenges, requires that various actors come together in formal or informal arrangements to achieve specific purposes. However, institutions (defined as rules of engagement) might be useful as they reduce uncertainty, promote stable patterns of interaction and transactions, and prevent or mitigate conflicts. They may also absorb and diffuse some part of the risk of individual actors e.g., by stimulating markets or providing information."},{"index":3,"size":65,"text":"Learning: Whether the partnerships remain transient or become permanent outfits is dictated by the nature of innovation process and further developments. What is important to note is that the process of joint innovation should not be confined to formal arrangements, but should involve informal collaboration, learning, and exchange of knowledge between individuals and organizations. Such learning is yet to manifest in the cases under study."},{"index":4,"size":157,"text":"Trust: It is interesting to note that benefit and risk sharing mechanisms in partnerships are explicitly articulated when actors from organised CBO or private sector are involved. The levels of trust between partners are also determined based on traditions and previous experiences. Private sector has not been actively encouraged in many Regions due to the socialist nature of previous governments. This is still reflected in the antagonism that government sector exudes towards the private sector in some sectors or Regions. In addition, the importance of mechanisms to create trust is not well appreciated leading to, more often than not, very tentative interactions. For successful partnerships, skills, habits and practices that allow individuals and organizations to interact with each other are critical. Relationships have to be built based on trust in which all partners have a sense of working towards a common and agreed goal. It is therefore, important to understand and address the underlying motivations of partners."},{"index":5,"size":29,"text":"Capacity development: The capacity has to be developed on a system basis leading to building up of a collective capacity of actors interactively linked with a view to innovate."},{"index":6,"size":39,"text":"These examples show that it was important to develop the technical skills of extension functionaries in modern and new technologies along with the farmers, so that local technical backstopping support is always available to farmers who have adopted them."},{"index":7,"size":25,"text":"Joint training activities of farmers and extension staff have also provided a way of making extension agents aware of farmers perspectives, challenges and knowledge needs."},{"index":8,"size":69,"text":"It is important to develop capacities not just in technical skills, but also in marketing techniques and entrepreneurial or business skills if one is aiming at market-oriented production. These skills are particularly lacking in the case of extension functionaries. What is observed in the cases being studied is that an external agent, in this case the IPMS project, is facilitating the linkages and managing the partnerships to begin with."},{"index":9,"size":27,"text":"What is important in terms of capacity development is also building the capacity of the actors to identify the needs, forge linkages and manage the partnership process."},{"index":10,"size":48,"text":"Enabling environment: The government has a critical role to play in creating enabling environments for innovation processes to occur. This may take the form of organizational transformation towards a culture which promotes linking and learning and, development of environment and reward system which encourages innovation and outcome orientation."},{"index":11,"size":96,"text":"To conclude, it is clear from the cases studied that one cannot innovate in isolation. For developing market-oriented agriculture especially, partnerships are crucial. It is also clear that partnerships do not happen automatically, but need to be stimulated. A boundary organization/linkage facilitator is very necessary. IPMS has been playing that role now, however a national actor should be taking over and playing that role in future. This requires an understanding and appreciation of the need for innovation and process of innovation. The importance of linkages, interaction, exchange of knowledge and learning has to be duly appreciated. "}]},{"head":"Bibliography","index":7,"paragraphs":[]}],"figures":[{"text":" Gebremedhin, B., D. Hoekstra and A. Tegegne 2006. Improving the Competitiveness of Agricultural Input Markets in Ethiopia: Experiences Since 1991. Paper presented at the Symposium on Seed-fertilizer Technology, Cereal productivity and Pro-Poor Growth in Africa: time for New Thinking 26 th Triennial Conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economics (IAAE), August 12 -18, 2006, Gold Coast, Australia IPMS, 2004, Project Implementation Plan, Unpublished document. Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, Banji 2005. Partnerships for building Science and Technology capacity in Africa. Paper prepared for the Africa-Canada-UK Exploration: Building Science and Technology Capacity with African Partners, 30 January -1 February 2005, Canada House, London, UK Puskur, R., and J.Hagmann 2006. Synthesis Report-Workshop on Alternative Service Delivery Systems, Unpublished Report, IPMS, Addis Ababa. Tegegne, A., B. Gebremedhin and D,Hoekstra 2006. Input supply system and services for Market oriented Livestock Production in Ethiopia. Paper presented at the 14th annual conference of the Ethiopian Society for Annual Production (ESAP) on Institutional arrangements and challenges in market oriented livestock agriculture in Ethiopia, September 5-7, 2006. Addis Abeba, Ethiopia World Bank 2006 a. Enhancing Agricultural Innovation: How to go beyond the strengthening of Research systems. Washington D.C. World Bank, 2006 b. Africa Development Indicators 2006. Washington D.C. "},{"text":"Table 1 Priority commodities and areas of intervention in IPMS PLWs  PLW Farming Systems Priority commodities Broad areas of intervention PLWFarming SystemsPriority commoditiesBroad areas of intervention Ada 1. Teff & Livestock Teff, Wheat, Chickpeas, Lentils, vegetables, Capacity building, marketing support (chickpeas), farmer-based Ada1. Teff & LivestockTeff, Wheat, Chickpeas, Lentils, vegetables,Capacity building, marketing support (chickpeas), farmer-based   beef, Shoat meat, poultry, honey input supply, introduction of new dairy technologies beef, Shoat meat, poultry, honeyinput supply, introduction of new dairy technologies  2. Teff & Dairy Teff, Wheat, Chickpeas, Lentils, vegetables, Capacity building, marketing support, farmer-based input 2. Teff & DairyTeff, Wheat, Chickpeas, Lentils, vegetables,Capacity building, marketing support, farmer-based input   fruits, milk, butter, beef, poultry supply system, introduction of new technologies fruits, milk, butter, beef, poultrysupply system, introduction of new technologies Mieso 1. Crop & Livestock Sorghum, Sesame, groundnuts, haricot Capacity building, farmer-based input supply system, Mieso1. Crop & LivestockSorghum, Sesame, groundnuts, haricotCapacity building, farmer-based input supply system,   bean, chickpeas, Vernonia, hot pepper, introduction of new crops and varieties, bean, chickpeas, Vernonia, hot pepper,introduction of new crops and varieties,   vegetables, fruits, Dairy, beef, shoat meat,  vegetables, fruits, Dairy, beef, shoat meat,   poultry  poultry  2. Pastoral S hoats (goats) Capacity building 2. PastoralS hoats (goats)Capacity building Alaba 1. Teff, Haricot Bean Teff, Haricot bean, Vernonia, Vegetables, Capacity building, farmer-based input supply system, Alaba1. Teff, Haricot BeanTeff, Haricot bean, Vernonia, Vegetables,Capacity building, farmer-based input supply system,  & Livestock butter, shoat (Sheep) meat, poultry, honey introduction of new crops, NRM, market facilitation & Livestockbutter, shoat (Sheep) meat, poultry, honeyintroduction of new crops, NRM, market facilitation  2. Pepper & Hot pepper, wheat, Vernonia, Poultry, Capacity building, farmer-based input supply system, 2. Pepper &Hot pepper, wheat, Vernonia, Poultry,Capacity building, farmer-based input supply system,  Livestock Goats, Butter, Honey introduction of new crops, NRM, market facilitation LivestockGoats, Butter, Honeyintroduction of new crops, NRM, market facilitation Dale 1. Coffee & Coffee, fruits, spices, milk, butter, poultry, Introduction of native coffee variety, marketing studies (fruit, Dale1. Coffee &Coffee, fruits, spices, milk, butter, poultry,Introduction of native coffee variety, marketing studies (fruit,  Livestock small ruminant fattening dairy), Introduction of new crops (pineapple), farmer-based Livestocksmall ruminant fatteningdairy), Introduction of new crops (pineapple), farmer-based    input supply system, NRM, alternative draught power, input supply system, NRM, alternative draught power,    sustainable vet service delivery system sustainable vet service delivery system  2. Beans & Livestock Haricot bean, vegetables (onion), butter, Marketing studies, introduction of new crops and varieties 2. Beans & Livestock Haricot bean, vegetables (onion), butter,Marketing studies, introduction of new crops and varieties   milk, hide & skin, shoat meat, poultry (haricot bean), alternative draught power, Animal health, milk, hide & skin, shoat meat, poultry(haricot bean), alternative draught power, Animal health, Fogera 1. Rice & Livestock Rice, chick peas, noug, vernonia, hot  Fogera1. Rice & LivestockRice, chick peas, noug, vernonia, hot  "},{"text":"Table 2 Selected cases of commodities and areas of intervention for analysis  S.No. Pilot Woreda Commodity Area for intervention Partners S.No. Pilot WoredaCommodityArea for interventionPartners 1 Metema Banana Product/variety OoARD 2 , Woreda cabinet 3 , banana 1MetemaBananaProduct/varietyOoARD 2 , Woreda cabinet 3 , banana    introduction growers, banana sucker suppliers, introductiongrowers, banana sucker suppliers,     chemical suppliers, IPMS chemical suppliers, IPMS 2 Fogera Onion seed Farmer-based seed supply OoARD, ARARI, BoARD inputs 2FogeraOnion seedFarmer-based seed supplyOoARD, ARARI, BoARD inputs    system development and department, farmers, outgrowers, system development anddepartment, farmers, outgrowers,    policy IPMS policyIPMS 3 Ada Dairy Marketing Ada Dairy co-op, Dairy producers 3AdaDairyMarketingAda Dairy co-op, Dairy producers     group, OoARD, ILRI, EIAR, group, OoARD, ILRI, EIAR,     Genesis Farms, microfinance, IPMS Genesis Farms, microfinance, IPMS 4 Alamata Fattening Production and marketing OoARD, Woreda administration, 4AlamataFatteningProduction and marketing OoARD, Woreda administration,     Women's Associations, Youth Women's Associations, Youth     Associations, Abergele PLC, Associations, Abergele PLC,     Microfinance, TARI, IPMS Microfinance, TARI, IPMS  "},{"text":"Table 3 Type of innovation and Innovation triggers   Metema Banana Fogera Onion Ada Dairy Alamata Metema Banana Fogera OnionAda DairyAlamata     Fattening Fattening Form of Opportunity Opportunity Opportunity Opportunity Form ofOpportunityOpportunityOpportunityOpportunity innovation driven driven driven driven innovationdrivendrivendrivendriven Phase of Emergence Emergence Emergence Nascent Phase ofEmergenceEmergenceEmergenceNascent innovation     innovation Market triggers Local demand High prices for Expansion plans Establishment of Market triggersLocal demandHigh prices forExpansion plansEstablishment of  for better onion, expanding of dairy a export-oriented for betteronion, expandingof dairya export-oriented  varieties production and cooperative, private company varietiesproduction andcooperative,private company   high demand for high local  high demand forhigh local   seed demand from co-  seeddemand from co-    operative,  operative,    increasing  increasing    number of  number of    private  private    processing plants  processing plants Policy triggers None None None Government Policy triggersNoneNoneNoneGovernment     policy to support policy to support     increased meat increased meat     exports exports Knowledge Knowledge of Awareness of Presence of Awareness of KnowledgeKnowledge ofAwareness ofPresence ofAwareness of triggers the variety in private seed strong dairy fattening triggersthe variety inprivate seedstrong dairyfattening  other regions and production research and practices other regions andproductionresearch andpractices  suitability of practices and experience  suitability ofpractices andexperience  agro-ecology systems in other   agro-ecologysystems in other   areas   areas Resource triggers None None Availability of Technical Resource triggers NoneNoneAvailability ofTechnical    excess milk and support from excess milk andsupport from    expanding reach PLC expanding reachPLC    of Dairy co-  of Dairy co-    operative  operative Context: factors Acquaintance Market Presence of Personal linkages Context: factorsAcquaintanceMarketPresence ofPersonal linkages interacting with with growers in availability biggest dairy co- with the staff of interacting withwith growers inavailabilitybiggest dairy co-with the staff of triggers other regions  operative in the private company triggersother regionsoperative in theprivate company    country, research  country, research  "},{"text":"Table 4 Roles of actors in Innovation process  Sector Farmers Government Private Co-ops Co- Financi Research Extension External agents SectorFarmersGovernmentPrivateCo-opsCo-FinanciResearchExtensionExternal agents     /Farmer ordinating al  agents (IPMS) /Farmerordinatingalagents(IPMS)     Associations bodies sector    Associationsbodiessector Banana Production Facilitation of input Develop None None exist None None Technical back Facilitation of training, BananaProductionFacilitation of inputDevelopNoneNone existNoneNoneTechnical backFacilitation of training,  initially, later supply, training and marketing     stopping technical support, input initially, latersupply, training andmarketingstoppingtechnical support, input  some entered product popularisation, linkages, input      supply linkages, market some enteredproduct popularisation,linkages, inputsupply linkages, market  input supply admin support supply      linkages input supplyadmin supportsupplylinkages Onion Production and Seed certification, None Creating None exist None Training, Technical Planning, facilitation of OnionProduction andSeed certification,NoneCreatingNone existNoneTraining,TechnicalPlanning, facilitation of seed input supply technical support and  market linkage   technical backstopping training, market linkage seedinput supplytechnical support andmarket linkagetechnicalbackstoppingtraining, market linkage   training, site and farmer     support,  creation, access to new training, site and farmersupport,creation, access to new   selection, planning,     quality control,  varieties selection, planning,quality control,varieties   policy support     improved   policy supportimproved        varieties   varieties Dairy Production Technical support, Sharing Market Linkage None Technology Farmer Facilitation of technical DairyProductionTechnical support,SharingMarketLinkageNoneTechnologyFarmerFacilitation of technical   capacity building, farmer experiences, development, creation yet provision, mobilisation, support, capacity capacity building, farmerexperiences,development,creationyetprovision,mobilisation,support, capacity   mobilisation, admin breeding input supply   capacity technical building, market mobilisation, adminbreedinginput supplycapacitytechnicalbuilding, market   support service and service   building, backstopping linkage facilitation supportserviceand servicebuilding,backstoppinglinkage facilitation    provision provision   monitoring   provisionprovisionmonitoring        interventions   interventions Fattening Production Capacity building, Input supply, Awareness Co- None Capacity Awareness Facilitation of capacity Fattening ProductionCapacity building,Input supply,AwarenessCo-NoneCapacityAwarenessFacilitation of capacity   market linkage creation, technical creation, ordinating yet building, feed creation, building, market market linkage creation,technicalcreation,ordinatingyetbuilding, feedcreation,building, market   feed resources support, farmer and  resources farmer linkage creation, feed feed resourcessupport,farmerandresourcesfarmerlinkage creation, feed   development, vet service capacity mobilisation managing  development mobilisation resources development development, vet servicecapacitymobilisationmanagingdevelopmentmobilisationresources development   provision, admin support building, feed  partnerships     provision, admin supportbuilding, feedpartnerships    resources       resources    development       development  "},{"text":"Table 5 Some features of partnerships being analysed   Metema Banana Fogera Onion Ada Dairy Alamata Metema Banana Fogera OnionAda DairyAlamata     Fattening Fattening Partnership Informal Informal Formal Formal PartnershipInformalInformalFormalFormal arrangements     arrangements Type Actor-based Purpose-based Purpose-based Purpose-based TypeActor-basedPurpose-basedPurpose-basedPurpose-based Relationship Consultative Consultative Coalition Coalition RelationshipConsultativeConsultativeCoalitionCoalition Resources None None Yes Yes ResourcesNoneNoneYesYes commitment     commitment Articulated benefit None None Yes, through Partial with the Articulated benefitNoneNoneYes, throughPartial with the and risk sharing   dividend sharing PLC and risk sharingdividend sharingPLC Partnership IPMS IPMS IPMS IPMS PartnershipIPMSIPMSIPMSIPMS management     management Who leads IPMS IPMS Co-operative OoARD Who leadsIPMSIPMSCo-operativeOoARD Who takes Joint Joint Joint Joint Who takesJointJointJointJoint decisions     decisions Level of trust Very high Low -Medium Variable Medium Level of trustVery highLow -MediumVariableMedium    between actors  between actors Mechanisms to Demonstration None explicit Demonstration Demonstration Mechanisms toDemonstrationNone explicitDemonstrationDemonstration create trust of intent and  of intent through of intent through create trustof intent andof intent throughof intent through  benefits  interactions interactions benefitsinteractionsinteractions Missing Research, input Larger markets, Para vets, Para vets, MissingResearch, inputLarger markets,Para vets,Para vets, interactions supply systems, co-operative Private Vet drug alternative interactionssupply systems,co-operativePrivate Vet drugalternative  credit services unions, credit supply, markets, feed credit servicesunions, creditsupply,markets, feed   services alternative services/supply, servicesalternativeservices/supply,    markets, Private Vet drug markets,Private Vet drug    processing supply, credit processingsupply, credit    companies, services companies,services    credit services  credit services Capacity development    Capacity development Which actors Farmers, Farmers, Farmers, Farmers, Which actorsFarmers,Farmers,Farmers,Farmers,  Extension agents Extension agents extension agents extension agents Extension agentsExtension agentsextension agentsextension agents  and experts and experts and experts and experts and expertsand expertsand expertsand experts What Technical skills Technical skills, Technical skills Technical skills WhatTechnical skillsTechnical skills,Technical skillsTechnical skills skills/capabilities  marketing and   skills/capabilitiesmarketing and   business skills   business skills  "}],"sieverID":"3b269e2c-4a66-4f25-976a-4f7676a46fa7","abstract":"The IPMS project proposes to 'contribute to improved agricultural productivity and production through market-oriented agricultural development, as a means for achieving improved and sustainable livelihoods for the rural population' in Ethiopia. To accomplish this goal the project supports development and (action) research on innovative technologies, processes and institutional arrangements in three focus areas i.e. i) knowledge management ii) innovation capacity building of public and private sector partners, farmers and pasoralists; iii) market oriented production technologies and input/output marketing and financing; contributing to evidence-based policy making to support innovation processes and capacity development.Adopting the Innovation systems perspective, the project acknowledges multiple sources of innovation and the critical role of institutions. The activities deploy the use of partnerships and linkages along the value chain to promote complementary investments in necessary areas and sectors to generate innovations and impact. Innovative approaches to production, NRM, technology adaptation and delivery, service delivery, marketing and, institutional change, linked to market demands and the capacity of the communities and its individual members to handle such innovations in a sustainable manner are being introduced and adapted in pilot sites. Learning from these experiences is an integral aspect to draw lessons for scaling up. This paper summarises the experience of IPMS in developing and nurturing innovative partnerships and lessons learnt, to date."}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"0694a6d53e5c3e8f79c9c19b2d7d1ee9","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/7ea3b592-690b-4309-9934-6259fe4b43ee/retrieve"},"pageCount":26,"title":"Understanding Farmers' Selection Criteria for Rice Varieties: A Case in Madhya Pradesh, Eastern India","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":136,"text":"Livestock fonns an important and integral part of the fanning system and, among other things, provides a major source of nutrients (Le., manure) for plants. Buffalo, cattle, goats, and chickens are the main kínds oflivestock in the area, wíth an average lívestock unít of2.8 per household. The average livestock unít ís highest among households in the rich and BeJ categories and lowest in poor and KDS households. This difference is significant across wealth (p < .0001) and ethnic (p < .01) categories. Simílarly, the female•headed households have lower livestock units per household than the male-headed households, but this dífference is not statistícaI1y significant. The resource analysis thus indícates that BeJ households have the most resources, followed by GMN households, while KDS households have the fewest resources. Similarly, female-headed households have comparatívely fewer resources than rnale-headed households."}]},{"head":"Access to information and technology","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":176,"text":"The access farmers have to improved maize varieties suitable to local environments and their own needs ís quite límited (table 1). Only 13% ofthe fanners reported growing improved varieties of maize; however, they know the value of changing theír old seeds. Ahout 39% ofthe households reported exchanging their seeds during last five years with other fanners. The users' and gender analysis showed that access to new maíze seeds is similar across al! wealth categories. However, GMN and KDS households have a complete lack of access to new maíze seeds, and a lower proportion of rnale-headed households reported cultívating improved varieties than díd female-headed households. The proportíon of households changing seeds over the last five years, however, ís greater in the poor wealth category, suggesting that farmers in t1ús category change seed more frequently than do the others. Since these households are also híghly food deficit, they may be consuming the seed and, therefore, bOITowing seeds from other farmers. The proportion ofhouseholds changing maize seeds ¡s, however, similar across ethnic categories and between male and female-headed households."},{"index":2,"size":151,"text":"Símilarly, fanners' access to teclurical services and inforrnation on technology is also poor. On1y about 3% of the maize-growing households reported participating in agriculture-related training, and on1y 6% participated in educational tours. Likewise, about 15% of the households reported receiving infonnation on improved technology for rnaize production. This reveals that externa! technica! support to farrners in their attempts to develop better maize varieties is quite limited. The proportion ofhouseholds particípatíng in agricultura! training and tours is lower in the average and poor households than in rich households. A chi-square analysis shows significant dífferences (p < .05) in access to infonnation on ímproved technology for maize production across wealth categories. Similarly, on1y BeJ households reported having participated in agricultural training and tours or receiving ínfonnation on improved maize production. The proportíon of ferna!e-headed households particípating in agricultural training and tours and receiving infonnation on improved maize production is lower than male-headed households."}]},{"head":"Maize varieties and their uses","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":113,"text":"Farmers have been found to grow about eight dífferent types ofmaize varieties, which they broadly categorize into two maize types: one is a large type (Thulo makai) with taU plants, big cobs, large grains and long rnaturity, while the other is a srnall type (Sano makai) with short plants, small cobs and grains, and short maturity. A majority ofthe farmers grow large-type maize, and it covers about 87.7% of lhe total maíze area. Among the large varieties, Thulo pyanlo alone covers about 80% of the area planted to this type, which reflects that, although farmers grow a large numberofvarieties, a large portion ofthe maize-growing area is covered by a relatively small number ofvarietíes."},{"index":2,"size":148,"text":"A majority ofthe households grow one to two varieties ofmaize (46.5% to 45.5%, respectively) in a season (table 2). Onlyabout 8% ofthe total maize-growing households grow more than tbree varieties per season. The varietal diversity maintained at household level, therefore, is low (figure 1). The ANOVA result shows that the difference in the number of maize varieties grown at household level is significant (p < .05) across wealth categories but not significant across ethnic categories and between male-and female-headed households. A higher proportion of poor households grows one variety of rnaize, compared to rich and average households. This is contrary to !he currently held view that small farmers maintain significant amounts of crop genetic diversity (Jarvis et al. 1997) and agrees with the fmdings of other studies (Rana and Kadayat 1999). Similarly, though no! significant, a very high proportion ofKDS households (90%) grows only one variety of maize."},{"index":3,"size":5,"text":"' \" 100% 'tl 90%"},{"index":4,"size":2,"text":"\"O 80%"},{"index":5,"size":207,"text":".c: ., Farmers who grow more tban one variety mentioned various reasons fur this (table2): to prepare different food items, to harvest at different times, to suit dífferent land types, to use as animal feed, and to meet fodder requirements. However, a majority ofthe farmers (67.9%) grow to suit dífferent types of land, and this is true across all wealfu and ethnic categories and between male-and fernale-headed households. Ihe ANOVA result suggests that fue number ofmaíze varieties grown at household leve! is not signifieantly related to the size of the hari land but is highly signifieantly related to the number ofparcels of bari land the farmer is planting to maize (p < .0001). This indicates tbat with the increase in the number of parcels of bari land, the number of maize varieties grown at household level also increases. This also confirms ¡he PRA finding that farmers in the area grow large-type maize on more fertile land while small-type maize is grown on less fertile soil. The number of bari pareels, therefore, appears to be the strongest determining factor in deciding the number of maíze varieties to be grown per season. It is, however, true tbat farmers use multiple eriteria to select maize varieties for their household production."},{"index":6,"size":43,"text":"The gender differences in the use of sorne eriteria to choose maize varieties are striking. A large proportion of fernale-headed households (more than tbree times !he number of male-headed households) mentioned growing more than one variety to meet fodder requirernents for their livestock."},{"index":7,"size":19,"text":"Ihis is also confirmed by the PRA findíngs. During the focus-group díscussions, women farmers 5.0 3,1 7,0 0.9 13,3"},{"index":8,"size":14,"text":"Note; Elhnicity is represented as BCi = BrahminlChhelrilJogi; GMN = Gurung/MagarlNewar; KDS = KamiIDam.i!Sarki."},{"index":9,"size":102,"text":"strongly expressed their preference for tall varieties ofmaize Iike their local varieties because taller varielies produce more fodder than short varíeties. Women appear 10 be more concemed with this issue because managing livestock fodder is largely theír responsibility. Similarly, women fanners are very particular aboul Ihe suitability of maize varieties for inlercropping, especíally wíth legumes (cowpeas and beans), because these help them meel the vegetable and pulse requirements of their families. The latter sometimes leads to conflicts with their male counterparts because intercropping with cowpeas and beans makes maize plants vulnerable to lodging and can cause big 105ses in the maize yield."},{"index":10,"size":113,"text":"Maize is the staple food for fanning households in the study area. Different preparations of maize are made for household consumption, ofwhich steamed grit (makai ka bhat) i5 the mos! common preparation, reported by 77% oftotal production (table 2). Farmers, therefore, prefer maize varíeties thal have high grit recovery. They perceive that ye!low (colored) maize has higher grit recovery and, therefore, prefer colored varieties over the white ones. The food preparation ofmaize is similar across households of different wealth, elhnic, and gender categories, and a majority ofhouseholds use it in grit formo Users' and genderdifferences in the choice ofvariety, Iherefore, do not appear lo be influenced by differences in the use of maize."},{"index":11,"size":74,"text":"The analysis díscussed aboye indicates that fanners' choíces for maíze varíeties are not greatly influenced by theír differences in weallh, ethnicity, and gender, Le., different categories of fanners have preferences for similar types of maize varietíes. F anners across all wealth, ethnic, and gender categories grow only one or two maize varieties per household and, therefore, their varíetal needs are not very diverse. However, farmers use multíple criteria ín selectíng the varietíes they grow."},{"index":12,"size":18,"text":"They prefer to have as many traits oftheír preference as possíble ín one lo two maize varietíes. In"},{"index":13,"size":100,"text":"Ihis way, they are able to maintaín and manage the variety of their-preference fora long•duration. Since maize ís an open-pollinated crop, a large number of varieties is difficult lo maintain and manage. Thi5 analysis ís also confirmed by the findings of the PRA conducted al the project research siles. The participatory breeding program, therefore, should focus on developing fewer maize varíelies with multíple traits lhat reflect fanners' preferences. Priority should be given lo the maize varieties Ihat have higher grit recovery, grow welI under different land conditions, produce high biomass for use as fodder, and alIow good intercropping with legumes."}]},{"head":"Gender roles in maize produ<:non and unlizanQn","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":120,"text":"The informalÍon on gender roles in maize production and utilization is based on a participatory gender analysis done with 30 maize-growing households selected for lhat purpose. The results show that there are distinct gender roles for men, women, and children in the production and utilizalÍon of maize in lhe hilIs ofNepaL Women supersede men in their involvement in all three major functions ofmaize production and utilization: namely, (1) production, (2) household utilization and marketing, and (3) seed managemen! (table 3). Their involvement is particularly high in the application of compost and farmyard manure lo the maize fie1d; seed processing, treatment, storage, and preparation for sowing in the next season; and intercroppíng of maize with beans, cowpeas, pumpkins, and other crops."},{"index":2,"size":123,"text":"The results ofthe gender analysis show lhat women are also the prime decision makers in the family and lheir contribution to decision making in actívities related to maize production and utilization is higher than that their male counterparts in the fumily (table 4). Their contribution to decisions is particularly high in the selection of crops fOT intercropping with maize, deciding on date and time of weeding and earthing-up in the maize fields, and in most ofthe activities relaled lo utilizatíon and marketing and seed management The gender analysis thus suggests that women have important roles and a stake in the varietal-improvement programs designed to develop farmers' preferred varieties. Their particípation in the whole process of variety development should be ensured and properly utilized."}]},{"head":"Distribution of breeding knowledge","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":43,"text":"Particípatoryplant breeding seeks to use the knowledge and experiences farmers have accwnulated over generations. It al so creates an environment for mutual learning and sharing, which closes the knowledge gap and sets the stage for a working partnership between the farmers and researchers."},{"index":2,"size":7,"text":"al Users' and Gender Perspective in Farm "}]},{"head":"2.","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":9,"text":"Quantity 01 grilslflour lo be milled al a lime"}]},{"head":"3.","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":10,"text":"When lo carry maíze grains lo the mili (tor milling)"}]},{"head":"4.","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":13,"text":"Food ítems lo be cooked daily 5. Whelher lo sale maize or nol"}]},{"head":"6.","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":63,"text":"Quantity 01 maize grains to sold 7. Facilitating and supporting farmers in their plant-hreeding activities then becomes easy and smooth. Based on this understanding, farmers' breeding knowledge was assessed by surveying a sample of 113 households selected randomly. An analysis of the influence of gender, wealth, and ethnicity on the distribution of such knowledge was also done and ís presented in table 5."},{"index":2,"size":111,"text":"Ibe majority ofthe households (more than 90%) separate seed and graín in advance, but the seed selection is almost entírely done from the cobs, and generally righ! after the barvest Farmers virtually do no! practice seed selection on standing crops. Ibe majority of the households select big, good-Iooking cobs with big, bold grains for seed. Similarly, almos! all farmers follow tbe practice of discarding grains on the tips ofthe cob when the cobs are shelled for seed. Only about a quarter of the farmers are knowledgeable about the role ofseed replacement in maintaining varietal purity and vigor. Farmers' knowledge on the more technical side ofbreeding, such as identification ofmale  ----------------. -------------------------1----"}]},{"head":"Gender cateaori&s","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":15,"text":"Weallh .alellori ., On standing ClOp 0,1 10,0 0,0 0,0 1,0 0,0 0,0 1,0 0,0 "},{"index":2,"size":102,"text":"No/e: Ethnicíty is represeoled as BeJ = BrahminlChhetri/Jogi; GMN = Guruog/Magar/Newar; KDS = Kami/DamaiISarki, lncorparation al Users' and Gender_FerspecthJe in Fan and femate plants and theír functions, was found te be very pOOL Similarly, a majority ofthe farmers also do not know the actual mechanism tha! causes new maize varieties to rapidly deteriorate, compared to other cereal crops like rice and wheat. The survey thus revealed that there is good scope and a need for sharing scientífic breedíng knowledge prior to the inception of a partícipatory plant breedíng program in order to enhance farmers' confidenee and thereby inerease theír ínterest and participation,"}]},{"head":"Incorporation of the users' perspective in the research process","index":11,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Considerations made in the research process","index":12,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":43,"text":"The project on fanner-Ied participatory plant breeding of maize has just completed one season of work. A number of consíderations have be en made, as suggested by the analysis of the users' and genderperspeetive ofmaize produetion and utilization. These are briefly discussed below."}]},{"head":"Breeding objective and selection olbreedíng maleríals","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":180,"text":"The breeding objective has been redefined to ímprove the production performance of a widely grown maíze variety, Thulo pyanlo, rather than creating a large díversity of maize varieties in order to improve the productivity ofthe niche envíronment. This variety has all the traits preferred by the farmers except one, i.e., lodging resistance, Reducing lodging in this variety is now the maín objective of the breeding program. In addition, the selection of improved maize varieties to be used as one ofthe parents for crossing with Thulo pyanlo was done in a way that ensured that they met most ofthe farmers' preferences for different traits, These included relatively taller, stout plant varieties like Ganesh I and 2, Rampur composit, Rampur 1, Khumal yellow, and Pop 22. This would help to combine good traits from a large number of varieties into a few fanners' preferred maize varieties. At the same time, attention has also been gíven to meeting the specific needs of the niche environment through a participatory variety-selection program, which provides farmers with a choice from a large number of maize varieties."}]},{"head":"Selection 01 research larmas","index":14,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":130,"text":"Farmers have fonned their own research cornmíttee at both the research sites to ensure their partieipation in and influence on the ｾ ･ ｳ ･ ｡ ｲ ｣ ｨ ＠ process, These research cornmittees are well represented by different categories offarmers and 41% ofits members are women, The Farmers' Research Committee. in consultation with the farmers at large, decide the breeding objectives and the research process. They also select research farmers to participate in the farmer-led maize breeding prograrns implemented at the research sites, Since farmers themselves select research farmers, it is envísaged that this wílllead to the development of maize varieties preferred by a large number of fanners. Similarly, under participalory variety-selection program, care is taken to distribute the seed of new maize varieties to different categories of frmners."}]},{"head":"Selection 01 trainees and contents","index":15,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":64,"text":"Based on the findings ofthe survey on the distribution of maize-breeding knowledge among farmers, field-based training was provided lo the research farmers in order lo supplement farmers' knowledge with practical scientific breeding knowledge, Attentíon was given to representation of different categories of farmers, inc\\uding women. Forty-five percent of the total trainees were women. This consideration will also be made in future farmers' training programs."}]},{"head":"Collection and analysis of users' and gender-differentiated data","index":16,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":112,"text":"The initial survey indicated that farmers use multiple eritería for the selection of a particular maize variety. Farmers may give different weights to these eritería to suite their individual needs and resources. Wíth this in mind, the colleetion and analysis of users' and gender-differentiated data have been built into the research process to ensure Ihat users' and gender perspectives are incorporated into the partícipatory breedíng programo Data are collected in a form that allows users' and gender-differentiated data to be anaIyzed, which will facilitate the drawing of inferences about whether users' and gender differences make a significant difference in the process and product of participatory plant breeding in open-pollinated crops like maize."}]},{"head":"Conclusion","index":17,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":236,"text":"The users' and gender analysis indicates tha! the differences among maize-growing households in regard to wealth, ethnicity, and gender do not have any significant influence on their choices for dífferent maize varieties. Similarly, farmers across aH wealth, ethnic, and gender categories grow only one 10 two maize varieties per household; therefore, their varietal needs are not very diverse. This is contradictory to what has been found in the case of self-pollínated crops. This appears to be largely because a large number of varieties is díffieult to maintain and manage in open-pollinated crops like maize. Farmers, however, use multiple cnterí,a in selecting the maize varieties they grow and prefer to have as many traits oftheÍr preference as possible in one to two varieties. It is, therefore, important for the particípatory breeding program to focus on developing fewer maize varieties with tbe multiple traits that farmers prefer. Women farmers have strong preferences about the quantity and qualíty of the fodder by-products of maíze and the suitability of new maize varíeties for intercropping with legumes. The research process should allow farmers of different categoríes to use their eritería in developing and selecting new maize vaneties, Farmers of a!l categories generally lack adequate practical breeding knowledge, and they are specifieally poor in scientific reasoníng, regardless of whatever breedíng knowledge they have. Supplementing farmers' knowledge with practica! scientific breeding knowledge is, therefore, necessary to empower farmers to sustain theÍr breedíng ínítiatives. "}]},{"head":"Introduction","index":18,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":199,"text":"Rice is the principal crop grown during the wet season (June-October) and i5 the staple food in Madhya Pradesh, eastero India. In this regíon, rice is cultivated on 5.35 million hectares, wíth an annual production of 6.46 millíon tons. This state contributes 9% to the national production from 12.8% of ¡he national acreage. Eastem Madhya Pradesh, k:nown as Chhattisgarh 18 considered the rice bowl ofthe state. Ofthe total rice area, 80% is rainfed, and drought, which occurs every two years, i5 a major constraint ín íncreasing rice productívity in the regíon. The rice yield in the regíon ís low (abon! 2.3 tons per hectare) and ís below the national average. Because of the frequent droughts, the majority offarmers are not willing to risk investíng in farm inputs to inerease productívity. Sustainabílity and yield stabilíty are the most important considerations of farmers in the management of their farming systems. Rural poverty still persísts in this regíon, and about one-thírd of the total poor in Madhya Pradesh depend on rice production as the basic source of Iivelihood. Thel'efore, improving rice pl'oduction and productivity could directIy lead to a substantial reduction in the rural poverty in the regíon (Janiah et al. 20(0)."},{"index":2,"size":263,"text":"F or the last four decades, a total of 512 modero rice varieties have been released in Indía. Howevel', hardly 10 to 20 ofthe released varieties are in the seed-productíon channel. For example, the average age of cultivars for which there i5 a demand fol' breeder seed is 11 years. The average age of cultivars in certified seed production ranges fiom 12 to 17 years in the states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan (Virk, Packwood, and Witcombe 1996). Only a few modero varieties have been successfu11y adopted in the irrigated ecosystem. One of the main reasons for low adoption of released varieties in the rainfed environments is lhat farmers have inadequate exposure to new cultivars. If adoption rates are to be improved, farmers need to try a wide range of novel cultivars in their fields in partícipatory varietal-selection (PVS) programs. The cultívars should include prereleased cultivars, advanced hnes, and already released cultivars from other regíons or countries (Whitcombe et al. 1996). This would give farmers a 'basket of choices' of varied genetic material (Chambers 1989). Another reason for low adoption of modern varietíes is that the breeding process does not meet fanners' diverse needs. Released rice varieties are not suited to the complex and heterogeneous rainfed agroecologícal environment or to the diverse uses and needs of dífferent socioeconomíc groups of fanners. In Uttar Pradesh, India, Maurya et al. (1988) tested advanced Hnes of rice in villages and successfully identified superior material that was preferred by fanners. Understanding farmers' preferences and needs is crucial for successful adoption and dissemination of improved rice cultivars."},{"index":3,"size":77,"text":"In 1997, a fanner participatory breeding projecl was initiated at the Intemational Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and conducted in castem India (Courtois et al. 2000). This is a collaborative project among plant breeders and social scientists from IRRI and six national agricultural research institutions located in eastern India. The Indira Oandhi Agricultural University (IOAU) in Raípur, Madhya Pradesh, is one of Ihe collaborating cenlers. The main objeclives for pursuing fanner participation in plant breeding are as follows:"},{"index":4,"size":19,"text":"• lo test the hypothesis that farmer participation in raínfed rice breeding can help develop suílable varieties more efficiently"},{"index":5,"size":30,"text":"• to identify stages along the breeding process where faImers' participation has the most impact and to develop and test a methodology for effectively involving fanners in the breedíng program"},{"index":6,"size":14,"text":"• 10 improve understanding of male and female criteria for selecting specific rice varieties"},{"index":7,"size":15,"text":"• to differentiate between the influence of fanner participation and decentralizatíon of the breedíng program"},{"index":8,"size":54,"text":"• to develop rice varietíes suítable for heterogeneous rainfed environments and which meet fanners' preferences Thís paper focuses on methúdologies for improvíng our understanding of fanners' (including women farmers') criteria for seleeting specífic rice varieties and how these eriteria were considered in participatory breeding strategies for rainfed lowland conditions in Madhya Pradesh, eastem India."}]},{"head":"Methodology","index":19,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":298,"text":"This study ís based on a sample survey of75 rice-fanning households in Ihree villages oflhe Raipur district, Madhya Pradesh. Surveys were conducted to characterize fanners' cropping/fanning systeros, rice varietal diversity, degree of market orientation, gender roles, as well as soeioeconomic differences, and lo relate these to farmers' rice varietal preferences. Farmers were interviewed in regard lo the positive and negative attributes of the traditional and improved varieties they grow and other seed-related information. A method of particípatory weighted ranking was uscd to elicit male and female farmers' eritena for selecting rice varielies accordíng to specific land elevations and information on how they trade offbetween traits. Basic informatíon (name, age, sex, caste, size oflandholding, elevation ofrice plots, etc.) was colIected from male and female heads ofseparate households who are actively involved in rice farming. Twenty cards that iIIustrate traits of rice cultivars were shown and explained to lhe farmers. Referring to a particular land elevation (upland, for example), each farmer was asked what traits he/she considered when selecting rice varieties for lha! elevatíon. The traits that the farmer did not consider important were discarded. Wilh lhe remaining cards representing the chosen traits, the farmer was lhen asked how much weight he/she gave to each trait out of 16 ana (16 ana= 100 paise, 100 paise = 1 Rs). F or this process, a total of 16 pieces of stone were provided to the respondent to assign the weights according to hislher choice. An average weight was then computed by getting the sum of all lhe values assigned per trait, divided by lhe number of respondents, afier which lhe proportion of each trait to all traits was calculated. This melhodology in eliciting farmers' perceptíons also provides room for trading off between traits (Sharma el aL 1998; Paris et aL 1999)"},{"index":2,"size":113,"text":"F armer participatory approaches for lhe identification or breeding of improved crop cultivars can be usefully categorized into participatory varietal selection (PVS) and participatory plant breeding (PPB). PVS is a more rapid and cost-effective way ofidentifying farmer-preferred cultivars, if a suitable choice of cultivars exists. A successful PVS program has four phases: (1) a means ofidentifying farmers' needs in a cultivar, (2) a search for suitable material to test with farmers, (3) experimentatíon on its acceptability in farmers' fields, and (4) wider dissemination of farmer-preferred cultivars (Whitcombe et al. 1996). In all ofthese phases, understanding farmers' local knowledge, perceptions, and criteria for varietal selection ís important in ímprovíng rice varieties for rainfed ecosystems."},{"index":3,"size":240,"text":"Two approaches were used to strengthen farmers' involvement in the project: (1) farmers were invited to lhe research statiDn to view a broad range of genetic materials, and (2) farmers were asked to grow a set of diverse materials in their own fields using their own level of management and inputs. Two farmers in each village volunteered to evaluate 16 rice genotypes on lheir fields using lheir own labor and level of management. Two sets of medium-duration rice genotypes were planted in two farmers' fields in Tarpongi, which has comparatively lighter soils. One set each of late-duratíon varieties was planted in Saguni and Khairknt villages, which have heavy-textured soíls. The set of rice genotypes include prereleased genotypes (F7-F8), advanced lines from lhe Shuttle Breeding Project, and a local check. During specific phenotypic stages of rice production, farmers and plant breeders, using a visual melhod, evaluated and ranked the same set ofrice genotypes on lhe station and on farmers' fields. Kendall' s coefficient of agreement was used to measure the agreement among farmers, among plant breeders, and between farmers and breeders. Farmers recorded lhe reasons for their ranking in lheir diaries. This was done for consecutive years from 1997 to 1999. In 2000, lhe number ofrice genotypes was reduced to five choices (plant breeder, farmer, one common, and a local check). These genotypes will be evaluated before harvesting, bolh at lhe station and on farmers' fields by pIant breeders and farmers."}]},{"head":"Results and discussion","index":20,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":166,"text":"Characteristics 01 the research sites and the larm households This research is being conducted in three villages in lhe Raipur district located on lhe Chhattisgarh plains ofMadhya Pradesh. On lhe Chhatisgarh plains, rice is grown mostly in the lowlands in a drought-prone ecosystem. Drought is a major climatic constraint for rice crops in lhis region. The general c1ímate of the region is dry sub-humíd, where annual potential evapotranspirationallosses are higher than the annual raínfall, whích is about \\300 mm. Over 90% ofthe rainfall is reeeived during the period from June to October. The monsoon sets in by 15 June and withdraws around 15 September. Winter conditions set in by mid-November, when the average minimum temperature reaches around ¡5°C. Hence, the rice erop should mature before this time. Sometimes winter conditíons set in early-by the thírd week ofOetober--and thís results in íncreased sterilíty and, thereby, low productivity. Under such fragíle eondítions, the identificatíon of suitable genotypes should be based both on climatic and edaphíc eharacteristies (IRRI-IGAU 2000)."},{"index":2,"size":150,"text":"The research sites are located in tbree villages: Tarpongi, Saguní, and Khairkut in the Raipur distriet. Tarpongi is 29 km in the north of Raipur; Saguni and Kharkut are 5 km to the west of Tarpongí. These villages are located within 50 km ofIGAU. There are 200 to 250 households in each village. More than 90% ofthe farming households in these villages belong to the other backward caste with small and margínallandholdings (owning less than a hectare), ofwhich the majority are Hindus. Male heads of households have an average of four years in school, while the majority of the women have lower levels of education and did not go to schooL AH ofthe farmers interviewed owned their own land. In eaeh village, 25 farmers were interviewed with regards to their fanníng and eropping systems, rice díversíty, and their eriteria for varietal selection. The survey was conducted in 1997 and 1998."},{"index":3,"size":113,"text":"The areas for rice production in these representatíve villages are heterogeneous. Farmers in these villages classify their land according to the topography/slope, such as upland, midland, and lowland. The light so¡ls in the uplands are cIassified by farmers as bhata (entisols), while the sandy loam in the midlands are referred to matasi (ínceptisols). The heavy-textured soils in the lowlands are referred to as kanhar (vertisols). Most of the drought-prone areas have light-textured soíls, whereas the more favorable arcas have heavy-structured soils. Tarpongí has líght-textured soils while the other two villages have heavy-structured soils. The length of the rice-growing season is primarily dependen! on moisture availabilíty, whích ís dependent on slope and soiJ type."},{"index":4,"size":91,"text":"Rice ís grown mainly in the rainy season (kharif) in a biasi system. Land preparatíon is done by bulJocks and rice is dry-seeded at the beginning ofthe rainy season in June. When enough rain has accumulated in the field, 25-to 30-day-old seedlin[s are wet-plowed, laddered, and redistributed. This traditional practice, ca1led beushening or biasi, is common in many rainfed areas of eastem India, particularly in Madhya Pradesh. Farmers continue tms practice with the beliefthat ít helps to control weeds and stímulate root growth (Fujísaka el aL 1993;Singh, Singh, and Singh 1994)."},{"index":5,"size":27,"text":"Farmers grow purple-colored rice varieties as a strategy to identífy and eradicate wild rice (which is prevalent in this region) at an early stage of crop growth."},{"index":6,"size":55,"text":"F amily members provide the major source oflabor for rice cultivation. While maJe family members do most of the land preparatíon, rice broadeasting, and applícation of chemicals, females are predominantly responsible for weeding, applying farmyard manure, harvesting, threshing by band, winnowing, and managing seeds for storage. Seed selectíon ís done by both husband and wífe."},{"index":7,"size":142,"text":"Other post-harvest activities, such sun drying, dehusking, and parboiling are exclusively done by women. Caring for livestock and, consequently, daiJy collection of green fodder for the livestock is done mostly by women (Sharma et aL 1997). Thus, women's criteria for rice varietal choices may be influenced by their roles and responsibilíties in farming and their social and relígíous obligations, and may differ from those ofmen. The majority ofthe farmers obtain new seeds from their neighbors and from extension workers. Only 24% obtain new seeds from IGAU. This indicates a lack of awareness among farmers about the new technologies developed at the university. Weeds are prevalen! in farmers' fields, and roguing the rice fields to protect the purity of seeds is not cornmonly practiced ín these villages. Rice mixtures and weed seeds are commonly found in the seed stocked for the next season."},{"index":8,"size":174,"text":"The cropping intensity in these villages is low because ofthe lack of supplementary irrigation water during the rabi season. The cropping systems in the villages are rice-fallow, rice-lathyrus, or rice-chíckpea (table 1). The chickpea and lathyrus crops are grown as relay crops (locally called utera in rice).  A high díversity ofrice varíeties exists in these villages. The names of the varíeties grown by farmers in these villages are shown in table 2. Ofthe total area grown to rice in the lowlands ofTarpongi, 73% is grown with traditional varieties, while the rest (27%) has modem varíeties. Twenty years ago, there were about 20 traditional varíeties; however, this number has declined. In contrast, in the uplands of Saguni and Kharkut, the adoption of modem varíeties is slightly higher than thethe adoption of traditional ones. Traditional varíeties such as Safri-17 and Chepti gurmatia are popular in the lowlands. The main reason for adoption of traditional varieties in the lowlands with heavy soíls is because aH the traditional varíeties are tall and can sustain even late biasi operations."},{"index":9,"size":151,"text":"According to the rainfall pattem and soíl types of Chhattisgarh, farmers grow varieties according to the land elevation, hydrology, and soils. Rice varieties with a growth duration ofless than 110 days are grown on the upper (undulating) portion ofuplands with loamy to sandy Boíl bhata (entisols). Rice varíeties with a growth duratíon of 110 to 130 days are allocated mainly to the midland (gently undulating) sandy loam matasi (inceptisols). Varieties with a growth duration ofup to 140 days are best suited for light soils, such as those found in Tarpongi village. Late-maturing varíeties (140 to 155 days) are ideal for low-lying, heavy-textured dorasa andkanhar soil types, such as those found in Saguni and Khairkut. Crops are grown chronologically wífu fue lowland fields planted first and the upland helds planted last. Lowland fields are submergence-prone and need to be sown early so fuat seedlings are already establíshed before fue fields are flooded."}]},{"head":"F armers' perceptions of traditional and modem rice varieties","index":21,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":232,"text":"Afier identifyíng the modern and traditional varieties fanners grew, questions were asked about positive and negative attributes. These questions were open-ended and no attempt was made to ¡mpose a priori categories of answers, Table 3 shows the list of positive traits of popular traditional varieties such as Safrí-17 (late duratíon) and Chepti gurmatia (medium duration). Alfuough fuese traditíonal varieties have !ower yields, fanners prefer fuem because of fueir combined positíve Swarna and Mahamaya are two modem varieties tha! have thepositive qualities present in the traditional varieties. Swarna is a high yielder, late maturing and semi-dwarf. Farmers perceive tha! these varieties can tolerate drought Mahamaya, similar to Chepti gurmatia, also has the purple leaf sheath and purple auricle, which help to distínguish it from wild rice. 1t has potentially higher yields !han the traditional varieties; however, the modern varieties are mOfe susceptible lo diseases (bacteria! blight and gall midge). Mahamaya is also susceptible to lodging because of íts short starure (table 4). Actually, Swarna was released in 1982 from Andhra Pradesh and was tested by ¡he plant breeders. However, it was not recommended to farmers before 1992. The adoption of Swama has been fast and it has replaeed local varieties such as Safri and Dubraj and improved varieties such as Mashuri. However, sine e 1992, not a single variety with these positive combined eharacteristícs eould be relcased by the local brceders in IGAU"},{"index":2,"size":8,"text":"Farmers' Selecrion Críteria {or Rice Varietíes .lI\"'q;::ua:::n.::I\"'IIy<-_____ -'-_"},{"index":3,"size":111,"text":"Mahamaya was only released in 1997. Both Swarna and Mahamaya were released for irrigated rice ecosystems, but because oftheir perceived ability to tolerate drought and theÍr high market demand by traders, these two varieties have become ver)' popular, Millers and traders prefer Mahamaya for making beaten rice and puffed rice. Poor farmers and agriculturallabarers who are paid in terms af rice prefer Mahamaya because they feel that it satisfies their hunger. Mahamaya has bold, coarse grains that they believe last longer in the stomach. F armers also prefer Swama for basi (Ieftover rice from dínner, dipped in water with a little salt and eaten the following day for breakfast or lunch)."}]},{"head":"Male andfemalefarmers' eriteria in seleeting riee varieties","index":22,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":197,"text":"Despite the active involvement of women in rice production, post-harvest, and seed-management activities, scientists, who are mastly men, aften talk with male farmers only. Ignoring women's knowledge and preferences for rice varieties may be an obstacle lo adoption of improved varieties, particularly in areas with gender-specific tasks and in farm aetivities where women have considerable influence. Far example, a released variety such as Pant-4 is high yielding but is rejected by wamen farmers because it is difficult to thresh by hand. In contrast, traditional varieties that are low yielders are still grown because of their desirable taste and their eating and cooking qualities that make them well-suited forrice produets that women prepare. Knowing men's and women's eriteria in rice varietal selection and access to and control of new seeds, information, etc., willlead lo more efficient dissemination ofimproved rice varieties for rainfed conditions and their subsequent adoption. Thus, in 1998, a team of scientists from the Directorate of Extension, ¡GAU, conducted focused research in the same villages. Our objeetive was to test and develop a methodology for eliciting male and fernale farmers' eriteria and to determine whether there are gender differences in these criteria in rice varietal choice."},{"index":2,"size":230,"text":"The majority of the women farmers are illiterate and are less exposed to household surveys; therefore, we used a simple participatory method of elicíting their perceptions regarding the useful traits they consider when selecting rice varieties. Men and women were separately involved in this activity. This method, which is like a game of cards (see methodology section), gave the farmers more time to think as weil as to elljoy the process. Tables 5 to 7 show the important traits thatmale and female farmers eonsider when selectíng rice varieties according lo land elevation and size of landholdíng. The results show that grain yield was the most important eriterion for both men and women farmers in selecting rice varieties for allland types and sizes oflandholding. Both men and women gave more value to eating quality (laste) and durationlmarurity for rice varieties grown on upland fields. However, women were more concemed with market price, drought tolerance, pes! and insect resistance, and competítiveness to weeds. On the other hand, men gave more importance to graín size and shape than women did. For midland conditions, women gave higher values lo eating quality and market price, while men gave more importance lo duration and marurity. For lowlands, eating quality and market price were considerations for both men and women. Women consistently gave higher values to the multiple use of straw for varieties grown in allland types."},{"index":3,"size":109,"text":"We also assessed whether there were differences in eriteria between men and women from marginal and large farms. Table 6 shows that there is not much difference between the eriteria across size oflandholdíng. Both men and women wíth large farms gave the highest value lo grain yield. Aside from grain yield, both men and women from the same economic category gave more importance to eatíng quality and market price. Duratíonlmarurity was more importan! to male farmers from large farrns than to women ofthe same category, similar to marginal farmers. Women from both large and small farms gave a higher value lo the multiple use of straw than men did."},{"index":4,"size":221,"text":"In summary, the most importan! traits tha! both men and women value in selecting rice varieties are grain yield, eatíng quality (taste), marke! price, durationlmarurity, drought tolerance, and resistance to pests and diseases. Women placed higher weights on multiple uses of straw aeross allland types and for both large and small landholdings. Men did not consider this as important, obvíously because women are more responsible than men in caring for the livestock. Rice straw is used as feed for the livestock and also mixed with cowdung to make a cake for household fue!. Thus, women consider both grain yield and rice biomass in selecting rice varieties according to their specific environments. A rice variety that has high grain yields but low quantity and quality of rice straw has a lower chance of adoption by women farmers. Men gave more importance to grain size and shape for varieties grown on the uplands. Men owning smaIl farms considered adaptation ofthe variety to specific soil conditions as being extremely important (second to yield) but were the only group to rank this highly. This may be because poorer farmers cultivate more marginalland (explaining the need for adaptation ofthe variety to soil type). Women did not rank this characteristic highly, probably because oftheir role in production (men tend to choose the varieties and cIear the land)."},{"index":5,"size":138,"text":"LogicaIly, drought tolerance was more important for upland and midland areas than for lowland areas. Women weighted this more highly than meno While the participatory ranking method was use fui in assessing the trade-offs between traits valued by farmers, this method could be improved by incIuding traits mentioned in the open-ended  questionnaires. The cards shown by the researcher limited the choice of desired traits--other traits based on specific cultural practíces, such as a preference for purple-colored rice varieties or for varieties suited to the beushening method of land preparation, were not mentioned at all. Moreover, other social considerations, such as a preference for late and medium varieties to coincide with a religious festival such as Diwali were not captured. Farmers usually harvest rice onIy afterthe Diwali festival. During this festival, families give special rice as gifts to relatives."}]},{"head":"Participatory varietaI selection","index":23,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":113,"text":"Although scientists accept that farmers are careful managers and possess a wealth of knowledge about theÍr production systems, this knowledge is not sufficiently used in the formal breeding process (Kshirsager et al. 1998) Several strategies were used to mvolve farmers in PVS. Farmers volunteered to grow 16 early-to medium-duration group varieties and late-duration varieties on their own fields for three consecutive years. The early/mediuru-duration group varieties were tested at Tarpongi village on two farmers' fields that have light soíls. The late-duration varieties were tested on two farmers' fields at Saguni village under heavy soíls. The new varieties had sorne of the preferred eriteria mentioned by farmers obtamed in the intervíew and partícipatory-ranking activities."},{"index":2,"size":40,"text":"Farmen and breeders ranked the rice Hnes on the station and on farmers' fields in the research siles.  Farmers' rankings were compared with breeders' rankings during different stages of crop growth (vegetative, flowering, and maturity) as shown in table 7."},{"index":3,"size":121,"text":"Correlation between breeders and farmers al all siles and in al! the years was consistently low. Very few of the trials showed significant or highly significant agreement between farmers and breeders (trials that showed any significant agreement were mainly in 1999). In general, agreement was insignificant or even negalive (although not strongly so). It was impossible lo make an assessment of agreement between farmers and breeders in 1997 and 1998. However, in 1999, although there was high agreement in varietal ranking among farmers and among breeders, there was generally low agreement between farmers and breeders, which may indicate that farmers and breeders consider different criteria. Farmers' rankings are not correlated with yield, indícating Ihat farmers consider other criteria in their rankings."}]},{"head":"Assessment uf late-duratiun varieties included in PVS in Saguni, Raipur","index":24,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":129,"text":"The breeders' top five favorite late-duratíon varíeties ín the 1999 trials included Swama, BKP-232, R650-18l7, R304-34, and R738-1-64-2-2 (aH modern varieties). These varieties also ranked in the top five in yield. The farmers' top five favorite varieties included Swarna, Safii-17, R 738-1-64-2-2, Mahsurí, and R650-1817. These were not always the highest yielding varieties-in fact, Mashuri gave one of the lowest yíelds and Safii-17 (a tradítional variety) was somewhere in the middle. These varieties were likely selected for other reasons than yield. Varieties preferred by both groups (ranking on average in the top 5) included Swarna (first choice ofboth farmers and breeders, and also high yieldíng), R650-1817, and R738-1-64-2-2. These are aH modero varieties, and are also the three varieties that had the híghest yíelds in the trials (table 8). "}]},{"head":"Assessment of medium-duration varieties in Tarpongi, Raipur, Madhya Pradesh","index":25,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":142,"text":"In Tarpongi, the top ranking medíum-duration varieties for breeders were R574-11, IR42342, Chepti gurmatia, BG380-2, R703-1-52-1, and ORl158-261. AlI of these were also the top six yielding varietíes. Al! are modem varieties except for Cheptí gurmatia. F or farmers, the top ranking varieties included BG380-2, ORI158-261, R714-2-9-3-3, IR63429, and R574-11. These are al! modem varietíes, bu! no! always top yielding. R714-2-9-3-3 gave medium yields, while IR63429 gave relatively low yields when compared with the other varieties. Farmers and breeders agreed onIy on R574-11, BG380-2, and ORl158-261 as their favorite varieties (table 9). During the kharif season 2000, Ihe medium-duratíon' varielies that were further evaluated on-stalion and on farmers' fields were IR4234 (breeders' choice), R574-1I (farmers' choice), BG380-2 (common choice), and Chepti gurmatía (best local choice). The late-duration varieties were BKP-232 (farmers' choice), R304-34 (breeder's choice), R650-1817 (common choice), and Swarna (local check)."},{"index":2,"size":93,"text":"The challenge facing plant breeders in IGAU and IRRI ís lo develop new cultívars that are better Ihan Swama and Maharnaya, while a1so meeting the other requirements and criteria thal furmers have for their given rice environments. While it is impossíble 10 combine all the requirements in one single variety, giving farmers (both men and women) an opportunity 10 test the performance of different rice genotypes on their own fields and 10 evaluate their cooking and eating qualíties can ¡ead 10 more efficient rice varietal improvement in the Chhattisgarh region in Madhya Pradesh."}]},{"head":"Conclusions","index":26,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":147,"text":"This paper focused on methodologies for improving our understanding ofthe eriteria used by farmers (both men and women) in selecling specific rice varieties and ofhow these criteria are considered in partícipatory breeding strategies in the rainfed lowland environments of the Chhatisgarh region in Madhya Pradesh, eastem India, Different methods for understanding farmers' eriteria in selecting rice varíeties were used. These melhods were (1) a questionnaire with open-ended queslions eliciting positive and negative attribules ofthe most popular modem and traditional varíeties, (2) a participatory weighted-ranking method, disaggregating the perceptions of men and women by land types and size oflandholdings, and (3) participatory varietal selection, where farmers evaluated severa] prereleased and local varíeties on their fields as well as on-station. The results of the study highlíght the importanee farmers attach to characteristies other than grain yield: eating quality (taste), rnarket price, durationlrnaturity, drought tolerance, and pest and inseet resistance."},{"index":2,"size":219,"text":"Both men and women have similar eriteria in choosing rice varíeties. However, straw quality for multiple uses is an important consideration for women farrners but not for meno F armers, particu-larIy women who do most ofthe weeding, prefer rice varíeties that are inherently dark green orpurpie to distinguish them from wild rice and enable the farmer to eradicate the wíld rice at an early stage of crop growth. Wild rice is a prevalent pesl and a constraint to high rice productivity in the Chhattisgarh regíon. The attributes considered by men and women farmers, however, are not gen-eralIy used as screenlng eriteria in most formal breeding prograrns, where the emphasis is mainly on grain yield. Qualíty attributes should be' emphasized more Ihan they have been in the past in breeding prograrns for rainfed areas. Because of the proximity of the villages lo !he markel, farmers prefer lo grow varieties Ibat no! only mee! their own eonsumption needs bul also those of consumers, including millers and traders. Therefore, farmers maintain their rice diversity and grow both traditional and modero varíeties that meet their varied interests and needs. Using approaches like farmer participatory breeding and varíetal selection from many rice lines provides an opportunity to fanners to choose varieties suitable lo their environment and needs as well as access to new seeds."},{"index":3,"size":54,"text":"Breeding lines R574-1l, BG308-2, and IR42342 performed well over the tbree years ofthe project in the medillm-duratíon group and showed tolerance to drought. Breeding lines R304-34 and JET -14444 (R 738-1-64) also proved promising. A large quantity of seeds have been multiplied by one ofthe farmers of Saguni village where blight is a problem."}]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 1 . Figure 1. Number oC maize varieties per household across gender. wealth and ethnic categories "},{"text":" = not tested. W = Kendall's coefficient of concordance. r = Spearman_'s coefficient ofcorrelation. F = farmers. B = breeders. 1. Stage: V = vegetative stage, F = flowering, M = maturity. 2. Trial code: L = late, M = medium. "},{"text":"Table 2 . Maize Varieties and Their Uses as Reported by Farmers at Darwar Devisthan and Simichaur in Gulmi District, Nepal O.ndar calegories Wealth categori •• Etlmlc categori •• O.ndar calegoriesWealth categori ••Etlmlc categori ••  "},{"text":"Table 3 . Suhedi. D. POI/del. and S Sunwar Gender Roles in Maize Production and Utilization (Percentage Time Contribution) Activities Activities  "},{"text":"Table 4 . Gender Differences in Decision Making in Maize Production and Utilization (Percentage Contribution in Decision Making) Actlvitles Actlvitles A. Maize productlon actlvities A. Maize productlon actlvities 1. Seleclion of maize variety for nex! .eason planting 1. Seleclion of maize variety for nex! .eason planting 2. Seleclion 01 land selection according lo Ihe variety 2. Seleclion 01 land selection according lo Ihe variety 3. Daleltime 01 sowing 3. Daleltime 01 sowing 4. Selec!ion 01 erops lor in!ercroppíng with maize 4.Selec!ion 01 erops lor in!ercroppíng with maize 5. Dale/time 01 weedíng and earthing up 01 maize 5.Dale/time 01 weedíng and earthing up 01 maize 6. Dale/lime 01 maize harvest 6. Dale/lime 01 maize harvest Tolal  Tolal B. Consumption and marketing aclivities B. Consumption and marketing aclivities 1. When and how much graios lo shell 1. When and how much graios lo shell  "},{"text":"her lo change old seeds or nol 6. Type and quantity 01 seeds 01 new variety to be planled 7.    Male Female MaleFemale   49.2 50.8 49.250.8   46.1 53.9 46.153.9   51.5 48.5 51.548.5   27.0 73.0 27.073.0   36.2 63.8 36.263.8   44.6 55.4 44.655.4   42.4 57.6 42.457.6   30.6 69.4 30.669.4   23.2 76.8 23.276.8   27.6 72.4 27.672.4   33.0 67.0 33.067.0   44.8 55.2 44.855.2   37.7 62.3 37.762.3  Whether lO purchase maize or no! 41.5 58.5 Whether lO purchase maize or no!41.558.5 8. Quanlity 01 maize grains lo purchased 36.1 63.9 8. Quanlity 01 maize grains lo purchased36.163.9 Total    Total C. Seed management actlvllies   C. Seed management actlvllies 1. Selection of maize varleties lor nex! season 46.2 53.8 1. Selection of maize varleties lor nex! season46.253.8 2. Quan!ity of seeds of dlfferenl varie!les for nex! season 39.9 60.1 2.Quan!ity of seeds of dlfferenl varie!les for nex! season39.960.1 3. Wayslmelhods 01 storing seed 35.3 64.7 3.Wayslmelhods 01 storing seed35.364.7 4. Number 01 sun-drying 01 stored saeds and using other !realmenls 30.7 69.3 4.Number 01 sun-drying 01 stored saeds and using other !realmenls30.769.3 5. Whe!Giving sell-produced saeds tó other larmers 48.0 48.8 36.1 52.0 51.2 63.9 5. Whe!Giving sell-produced saeds tó other larmers48.0 48.8 36.152.0 51.2 63.9   36.3  36.3  "},{"text":"Table 5 . Distribution oC Breeding Knowledge by Gender, WeaIth and Ethnicity (% Households)  "},{"text":" •• Elhnl. cat.lIorio. Characteristics AlI Male Famale ----------------- Rich Average Poor BCJ GMN KDS CharacteristicsAlIMaleFamale -----------------RichAveragePoorBCJGMNKDS Separate seed and graio in advance 96,2 91,0 939 97.7 94,1 94,1 97,2 90,0 91,7 Separate seed and graio in advance96,291,093997.794,194,197,290,091,7 Stage 01 .eed sele<:tion          Stage 01 .eed sele<:tion  "},{"text":"Farmer-Led Particípatorv pralll Breeding in lvfaize Pokhara, Nepal: Local Initiatives for Biodiversity, Researcb and Developmen!. Shrestba, P.K. 1998. Gene, gender and generation: Ro!e of tradiliona! seed supp!y systems in the majotenance of agrobiodtversity in Nepal. In Managing agrobiodiversity: Farmers' changing perspectives aad Instllu/Ional responses in Ihe Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region, edited by Pratap and B. Sthapit. Kathmandu, Nepal: Intema-tionaI Centre for Integrated Mountain Development and lntem.tíonal Plant Genetíc Resources Institute.  "},{"text":"Table 1 . Characteristics ofthe Rice Land in the Research Sites in Raipur, Madhya Pradesh, Eastern India     Eastern India S¡ope ! Upland . (ndulating) I Mídland (gently , undulaling) LOIYland (Ieveled and genlly undulating and terr.ced fields) Lowland (¡oveJed) Lowland (Iow Iying) S¡ope! Upland . (ndulating)I Mídland (gently , undulaling)LOIYland (Ieveled and genlly undulating and terr.ced fields)Lowland (¡oveJed)Lowland (Iow Iying) Soil. Bhata Matas; Dorna Kanhar Naja Soil.BhataMatas;DornaKanharNaja  (entisols) (inceptisols) (alfisols) (vertisols) (verlisoJs) (entisols)(inceptisols)(alfisols)(vertisols)(verlisoJs) Texture Gravely course , Sandyloam Silty c!ay Clayey Clayey TextureGravely course , SandyloamSilty c!ayClayeyClayey  loamy to sandy     loamy to sandy Depth (cm) Very shallow Moderate Moderate to deep Deep : Deep Depth (cm)Very shallowModerateModerate to deepDeep: Deep  (5-30) Ｈ Ｓ ｾ Ｐ Ｉ ＠ (80-150) (>150) • (>150) (5-30)Ｈ Ｓ ｾ Ｐ Ｉ ＠(80-150)(>150)• (>150) Internal drainage Rapid Moderate I Moderate to slow ! Slow Slow Internal drainageRapidModerateI Moderate to slow! SlowSlow  "},{"text":"Table 2 . Area (Rectares) Planled lo Modern and Traditional Rice Varieties by Sample Farming Households, Elevatlon of Rice Land, and ViIlage, Raipur, Madhya Pradesh Varieties  Tarpongi (n = 25)  Sagunl (n=50) Khalrkut (\"=50)   VarietiesTarpongi (n = 25)Sagunl (n=50)Khalrkut (\"=50) Modem  Upland Lowland  Upland Lowland Upland lowland Duratlon (days) ModemUplandLowlandUplandLowlandUplandlowlandDuratlon (days) Swama  0.8 7.82  27.64 9.86 38.66 5.0  late (150) Swama0.87.8227.649.8638.665.0late (150) Mahamaya   2.6  2.22 1.4 6.6 1.0  Medium (130) Mahamaya2.62.221.46.61.0Medium (130) Kranti  6.8 6.9  8.8 1.8 4.9   Medium (130) Kranti6.86.98.81.84.9Medium (130) 262  7.5 2.1   0.1 0.8   Medium, (125) 2627.52.10.10.8Medium, (125) H.M.T.       0.4   Medium (130) H.M.T.0.4Medium (130) Purnima  2.4 0.4       late (145) Purnima2.40.4late (145) IR36       : 0.6  Early (120) IR36:0.6Early (120) Culture   0.8  1.86 1.2    Medium (130) Culture0.81.861.2Medium (130) Others      0.7     Others0.7 Total MVs  •1 20.62  40.52 15.06 51.36 6.6 !  Total MVs•120.6240.5215.0651.366.6! Tradltlonal Safri-BD ! 2.9 28.4  Ｗ ｾ Ｐ Ｔ ＠  40.62 5.2 i Late (150) Tradltlonal Safri-BD!2.928.4Ｗ ｾ Ｐ Ｔ ＠40.625.2iLate (150) Safri-17  1.2 10.7  12 64 0.44   Late (155) Safri-171.210.712640.44Late (155) Cheptl gurmat!a , 1o.a 7.0 .  3.2 3.8 : 064 5.0  Medium (130) Cheptl gurmat!a,1o.a7.0 .3.23.8: 0645.0Medium (130) .I'l.anlkajar i 1.8 1.4 , 6.3 1.84 5.68 04  Med!um (130) .I'l.anlkajari1.81.4,6.31.845.6804Med!um (130) Bhala safri ! 4A4 7.8 i , 0.4 212 1.6 ._M Medlum (130) Bhala safri!4A47.8i,0.42121.6._MMedlum (130) Aojan safri  0.5 0.1        Aojan safri0.50.1 Ganga 6alri  0.3     I   Late (145) Ganga 6alri0.3ILate (145) Nankershar  0.2  ,      Late (135) Nankershar0.2,Late (135) Dubraj   1.6        Dubraj1.6 Cheptl      4.7    Medium (130) Cheptl4.7Medium (130) Total Tradltional  20.14 57.0  29.5 18.82 49,50 122   Total Tradltional20.1457.029.518.8249,50122 Total of all vanetles  37.64 77.62  70.02 33.88 100.86 18.8   Total of all vanetles37.6477.6270.0233.88100.8618.8 %MV  46.49 26.57  57.87 44A5 50.92 35,11   %MV46.4926.5757.8744A550.9235,11 % Traditlonal  53.51 73.43  42.13 55.55 49.08 64.89   % Traditlonal53.5173.4342.1355.5549.0864.89  "},{"text":"Table 3 . Farmers' Assessment of Popular Traditional Varieties Sam-17 stable yield every year has lower ylelds (2-3 t/ha) than Sam-17stable yield every yearhas lower ylelds (2-3 t/ha) than (late maturing) resistanl to pests and diseases Swarna and Krantl (late maturing)resistanl to pests and diseasesSwarna and Krantl  drought toleran! good for heavy-textured 5011 9000 for beusheníng method 01 land preparation susceptible to IOOglng due to height (157-168 cm) can'l be used lo distinguish wild rice (karaga) drought toleran! good for heavy-textured 5011 9000 for beusheníng method 01 land preparationsusceptible to IOOglng due to height (157-168 cm) can'l be used lo distinguish wild rice (karaga)  tall (157 cm) and submergence tolerant too much slraw and less grain tall (157 cm) and submergence toleranttoo much slraw and less grain  competes with weeds  competes with weeds  raquires less water and fertilizer  raquires less water and fertilizer  photosensitive  photosensitive  good lasle and eating quality  good lasle and eating quality  gOoo grain quality (slender, fine, shinlng)  gOoo grain quality (slender, fine, shinlng)  commands high market príce  commands high market príce  high milling recavery  high milling recavery  good quantity and quality of straw for making rope  good quantity and quality of straw for making rope  matures near religious festival (Diwall)  matures near religious festival (Diwall) Chepti gurmatia good grain yield (3 t/ha) yields lesser !hao Swarna Chepti gurmatiagood grain yield (3 t/ha)yields lesser !hao Swarna (medium duratlon) competes with weeds susceptible to lodging because (medium duratlon)competes with weedssusceptible to lodging because  tolerant to drought it is lall (137-142cm) tolerant to droughtit is lall (137-142cm)  ideal fO( líght soil or Matasi darse medium duration and cán be haIVested early, allowing rabi crop susceptible to bacterial blight and stamborar has more straw than grain ideal fO( líght soil or Matasi darse medium duration and cán be haIVested early, allowing rabi cropsusceptible to bacterial blight and stamborar has more straw than grain  purple pigrn<lolatioo helps in eradicaling wild rice  purple pigrn<lolatioo helps in eradicaling wild rice  has good taste and ealing quality  has good taste and ealing quality  cammands a high prlee in the markel  cammands a high prlee in the markel  good for olher rice prOOucls (e.9., basí and pulao)  good for olher rice prOOucls (e.9., basí and pulao)  preferred as wage by agriculturallaborers due to  preferred as wage by agriculturallaborers due to  rts bold, caerse grains: can last longer in the  rts bold, caerse grains: can last longer in the  stomaeh  stomaeh  "},{"text":"Table 4 . Farmers' Perceptions of Traits of Popular Modero Varieties Variety Variety Swarna Swarna (Iale durallon) (Iale durallon)  "},{"text":"Table 5 . Men's and Women's Perceptions of Useful Traits of Rice Varieties by Land Elevation, Raipur, Madhya Pradesh Values have been rounded off. Values were computed by weighted-ranking method. Traits  Uplands Midlands Lowlands TraitsUplandsMidlandsLowlands  Men Women Men Women Men Women MenWomenMenWomenMenWomen Grain yield 19 19 27 25 30 27 Grain yield191927253027 Eating quality (taste) 16 11 6 17 11 19 Eating quality (taste)16116171119 Market price 3 10 8 13 9 13 Market price310813913 Duration/maturity 13 10 13 6 7 3 Duration/maturity131013673 Drought tolerance 6 11 5 3 3 1 Drought tolerance6115331 PesUinsect resistance 6 10 8 6 6 4 PesUinsect resistance6108664 Multiple use 01 straw O 8 5 11 6 11 Multiple use 01 strawO8511611 Grain size and shape 16 O 2 2 4 3 Grain size and shape16O2243 Milling recovery 9 O 2 2 4 4 Milling recovery9O2244 Lodging resistan ce 3 O 3 4 2 3 Lodging resistan ce3O3423 Fertilizer responsiveness 6 3 5 3 4 2 Fertilizer responsiveness635342 Weed competitiveness 7 7 3 1 2 2 Weed competitiveness773122 Submergence tolerance 5 5 1 2 2 2 Submergence tolerance551222 Good lar rice products O O 2 . 2 1 0.5 Good lar rice productsOO2 .210.5 Disease resistance O O 3 <0.5 3 0.5 Disease resistanceOO3<0.530.5 Adaptation to soils 3 0.5 2 1 2 1 Adaptation to soils30.52121 Adaptation to land level O 0.5 2 1 0.5 1 Adaptation to land levelO0.5210.51 Storage quality O 2 1 <0.5 2 1 Storage qualityO21<0.521 Ful1ness in stomach O  1 <0.5 1 1 Ful1ness in stomachO1<0.511 Cooking time O 3 1 1 0.5  Cooking timeO3110.5  100 100 100 100 100 100 100100100100100100  "},{"text":"Table 6 . Perceptions of Useful Traits of Rice Varieties, by Size of Landholding and Gender, Raipur, Madhya Pradesh Traits  larga farmers Marginal tarmers Traitslarga farmersMarginal tarmers  Men i Women Men Women MeniWomenMenWomen Grain yield 36  34 19 21 Grain yield36341921 Eating quality (taste) 13  12 9 18 Eating quality (taste)1312918 Market price 8  12 6 13 Market price812613 Duratíon/maturi1y 10  3 7 8 Duratíon/maturi1y10378 Mulliple use 01 straw     Mulliple use 01 straw  "},{"text":"Table 7 . Comparison between Ranks Attributed by Farmers and Breeders at Different Growth Stages in thePVS Trials, Raipur Villages, Eastern India, and IGAU Station, 1997-99     Agreement Agreement Correlation between AgreementAgreementCorrelation between among among farmers' & breeders' amongamongfarmers' & breeders'  "},{"text":"Table 8 . Assessment ofLate-Maturing Varieties Included in PVS, Saguni, Raipur, Madbya Pradesh, Eastern India Varíety . Ranking Varíety. Ranking Swama (check) : Favorite 01 both farmers and breeders Swama (check): Favorite 01 both farmers and breeders  Consistently ranked highly in the tep 5 by beth groups in the field sites and en-station Consistently ranked highly in the tep 5 by beth groups in the field sites and en-station Safri-17 (check) Always ranked in the !op 5 by farmers, bu! no! so well ranked by breeders Safri-17 (check)Always ranked in the !op 5 by farmers, bu! no! so well ranked by breeders R73&-64 , Thls 15 ranked in !he top 5 by farmers and breeder5 in !he farmers' flelds, but les5 , well ranked In on-station trials. R73&-64, Thls 15 ranked in !he top 5 by farmers and breeder5 in !he farmers' flelds, but les5 , well ranked In on-station trials. R304-34 Ranked flrst by breeders, but not IIked by farmers, even though yleld 15 quite good R304-34Ranked flrst by breeders, but not IIked by farmers, even though yleld 15 quite good  ! (5 tJha) ! (5 tJha)  . Ranked low by both groups in fleld sites . Ranked low by both groups in fleld sites  ! Bold rains, not susceptible to disease, oommands hl h market prlee ! Bold rains, not susceptible to disease, oommands hl h market prlee Mahsun On-stalien. ranked wíthin top 5 by farmers, en station and in one farm site, although yield is MahsunOn-stalien. ranked wíthin top 5 by farmers, en station and in one farm site, although yield is  consistently iow consistently iow  Ranked consistentiy low by breeders Ranked consistentiy low by breeders IR54896 On-slation. ranked highly by breeders IR54896On-slation. ranked highly by breeders Yield is gaod, bu! larmers don't like it (one of their least favarttes) ______ -\"-.. Ra\"'r1.ked Jow by all in larm trials Yield is gaod, bu! larmers don't like it (one of their least favarttes) ______ -\"-.. Ra\"'r1.ked Jow by all in larm trials  "},{"text":"Table 9 . Assessment ofMedium-Duration Varieties Included in PVS, Raipnr, Madhya Pradesh Ranked highly by farmers on farmers' fields and in 2 nd on-slatioo replicatíon, and is among , the farmers' favorites i Consistently marked low by breedars ! Top ranked by tarmers and by breaders in station tríals. Also, highest yield ! On-farm, la still in top 1-2 for breeder. but drops to 3-10'\" rank for fanners . Yleld on farm ls less (4 th and 6 th rank) , Ranked abou! 5-6 (on average) in all siles excep! in one field, where it was4t1 among farmers , Yield ranges from 3-6 tlha Among !he top varieties lor !anners and Ranked well by farmers in all sites bol conslstently ranked low by breaders Lower-yieldlng varíety compared to others, but fanners seam to IIke it In any case Early, long grain, intennediate hei ht Consis!ently highly ranked by breeders, bu! given low rank by fanners in all sites excapt station repllcation #1 Cons¡stently high yield, ,but even with highes! yield on larm, larmers don't I¡ke it Consistently ranked well by breeders, also one 01 the top 5 yielding varieties However, ij ranks in the middle with !armers Ranked hlghly by breader. and fanners In field and on-statlon : Generally has goOO yleld Varlety I Ranking VarletyI Ranking R714--2-9-3-3 , R714--2-9-3-3, R574•11  R574•11 OR1158-26  OR1158-26 IR63429  IR63429 IR42324  IR42324 Chepti gurmatia  Chepti gurmatia (local check)  (local check) BG380-2  BG380-2  "}],"sieverID":"a3c83e6a-0fff-48de-b096-c2c7eba7d713","abstract":"This paper presents infonnation from a participatory breeding project ¡niti.red in 1997 at the Internatíonal Rice Researeh Institute (IRRI) ín collaboratíon wíth plant breedees and social scientists from six national agricultural research institut;ons loeated in eastem India. The Indita Gandhí Agricultural Uníveesíty (IGAU) ín Raípur, Madhya Pradesh, ís one of the collaborating eentees. The informalion gíven here is based on a sample survey of75 riee-farmíng households in Ihree villages oflhe Raipurdistrict, Madhya Pradesh. Surveys were conducted lO charaelerize fanners' croppínglfanning syslems, rice varietal diversity, dogre. of market orientation, gender roles, as well as socioeconom;c differences, and lo relate these to farmers' rice varietal preferences. The foeus is on methodologíes for improving understanding of fanners' (including worneo farmer's) eriteria for seleeting specific rice v.rieties and how !hese criteria are considered io particípatory breeding strategies for raíofed lowland conditions in Madhya Pradesh, eastem India."}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"06ae5550b06189d20faab0dd3db3428e","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/3dcf21c9-c842-4eaf-a516-a8b5af29d08d/retrieve"},"pageCount":22,"title":"Transforming food environments to deliver healthy diet options: Economic rationale and policy drivers","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Abstract","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":157,"text":"The second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) envisions comprehensive global food security and improved nutrition by 2030. This is a major challenge, with persisting undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies in multiple regions, and the increase in excessive consumption of macronutrients contributing to overweight and obesity, heart disease, and Type 2 diabetes even in low-and middle-income countries. While improvements are needed throughout current food systems, the food retail environment (FRE) in developing countries remains an underexplored link between production systems and consumers in food and nutrition security programs. This study examines the economic rationale of actors in the food retail environment and suggests policy options to nudge the food environment to deliver a healthier basket of foods. The policy options are classified into personal changes, private sector actions, and public sector initiatives. We argue that for a comprehensive transformation of the food retail environment to deliver healthier food options, private, public sector initiatives, and consumer awareness all require urgent action."}]},{"head":"FOOD RETAIL ENVIRONMENT TRIPLE BURDEN MALNUTRITION MARKET FAILURE SMART POLICIES SUBSIDIES FOOD TAXES","index":2,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"KEY WORDS","index":3,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Introduction","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":92,"text":"About one billion people consume too few calories and other macronutrients and at least two billion people do not consume enough micronutrients while over 2.5 billion consume too much sugar, oil, and fat (Ingram and Zurek, 2018). Risk factors associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) (Type 2 diabetes, heart attacks, and hypertension) are high and the prevalence is increasing in low-and middle-income countries (FAO, 2016;Branca et al., 2019). Adult obesity is worsening in low-and middle-income countries, with an increase from 11.7 percent in 2012 to 13.2 percent in 2016 (FAO et al., 2018)."},{"index":2,"size":123,"text":"The nutritional content of foods available on the markets plays a major role in the health status of consumers, and by extension the prevalence of malnutrition. Increasingly, consumers in both urban and rural areas depend on the market (informal and supermarkets) for dietary needs (Reardon, 2015;Reardon et al., 2003;Weatherspoon and Reardon, 2003). Market factors contributing to malnutrition include cheap availability of low-quality and unhealthy food products in the retail market and limited access to nutritious food especially for consumers who have the resources to afford (Lartey et al., 2016;Global Panel, 2018). Economic factors, such as income, may influence the consumption of healthy diets as well as increase obesity and chronic disease when food environments facilitate spending toward unhealthy diets (Herforth and Ahmed, 2015)."},{"index":3,"size":165,"text":"Efforts to solve the current challenges regarding malnutrition and to achieve nutritional security have placed major emphasis on improving agricultural productivity. The focus has been on improving household nutrition and dietary diversity through several crop improvement and varietal selection strategies for grain legumes, cereals, and livestock (Becerril and Abdulai, 2010). According to Allen and de Brauw (2018), interventions focusing on agricultural productivity have had only partial impacts on nutrition security. The changing preferences of consumers due to urbanization have led to the incorporation of consumer traits in crop breeding programs to enhance acceptance and utilization. For example, improved biofortification (high iron in beans, zinc and protein in maize, and betacarotene in sweet potatoes) is promoted as a strategy to enhance micronutrient composition in staple foods (Ruel et al., 2018). However, consumers may be constrained by their income in accessing high nutritious food. Preferences, individual beliefs, attitudes, habits, culture, information, and demographic status may affect the demand for specific food among consumers (Ventura and Worobey, 2013)."},{"index":4,"size":42,"text":"Market plays an important role in linking consumers to producers. In order to promote the consumption of nutritious foods, several studies have highlighted the role of value chain that focuses primarily on the food marketing chains (Maestre et al., 2017;Gelli et al., "}]},{"head":"Photo: Dean Hochman (CC BY 2.0)","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":136,"text":"2015; Hawkes and Ruel, 2012). The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) has demonstrated how market systems can be enhanced in terms of their environmental and social impacts. However, there is paucity of information on how market systems can deliver healthy and nutritious dietary options partly due to the \"philosophy\" that markets simply offer what consumers demand. However, this philosophy is partly true. We address the gap in the literature by providing a framework that shows how forces of markets promote the production and consumption of nutritious foods. Patronage of retail markets, supermarkets, fast food restaurants, convenience stores and wet markets is increasingly becoming the norm because of increasing incomes, population growth, and rapid urbanization (Kennedy et al., 2004). This makes the food retail environment an important but not well-focused link between production systems and consumers (Reardon, 2015)."},{"index":2,"size":108,"text":"The findings from this study highlight the contribution towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (Global Panel, 2018). SDG2 highlights the need to \"end hunger, achieve food security and improve nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture,\" SDG3 echoes the need to \"promote good health and wellbeing,\" and SDG12 highlights the need for \"responsible consumption and production\" (United Nations, 2015). Together, these SDGs provide a strong case for the need to pay attention to the linkages between agriculture, food and nutrition security, and health. To emphasize the need for sustaining the SDGs, the market linkage between production systems and consumers must function properly to deliver healthy and nutritious food choices."},{"index":3,"size":75,"text":"Presently, the food retail environment, especially in low-and middle-income countries, does not deliver the healthy dietary options needed to ensure nutritional security. This is due to the following failures: (1) consumer failure -the inability of individuals to make healthy food choices because of prices, substitutes, convenience, access, beliefs, availability, etc.; (2) market failure -the inability of the private sector to move toward providing healthier dietary options due to production costs, logistics, profit motives, etc.; and"},{"index":4,"size":161,"text":"(3) public policy failure -the inability of governments to initiate and enforce regulations because of lobbying activities, beliefs, and limited political will. Turner et al. (2017) examined the concepts and critical perspectives of the food environment and showed that a paradigm shift is required to better account for the socioecological interactions that determine food acquisition patterns, diets, and nutrient and health outcomes. But the complexity of these factors and the limited understanding of the interactions taking place among the different actors (consumers, food suppliers, and the public sector) have made it challenging to clearly outline how to nudge the food retail environment to deliver healthier dietary options. This review aims to begin to unpack the food retail environment to achieve a better understanding of the economic rationale of actors in the food market as a fundamental step in starting to determine the policy strategies required to encourage and allow the food retail environment to deliver healthy diets in low-and middle-income countries."},{"index":5,"size":38,"text":"In subsequent sections, we discuss the food retail environment conceptually and present its economic foundations, examine policy strategies to nudge the food retail environment to deliver healthier dietary options, and, finally, provide recommendations and areas for future studies."},{"index":6,"size":2,"text":"Eq. 2"}]},{"head":"Food retail environment: Theoretical foundations and economic rationale","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":149,"text":"We use a simple partial equilibrium model to demonstrate how market systems can deliver healthy and nutritious dietary options. In this model, we assume that there are producers who supply optimal bundle of food items that maximizes profit subject to cost of production while there are consumers i=1,2,….I who choose the optimal quantity of the composite food item to maximize their utility subject to their budget constraint. Equilibrium is achieved when price equilibrates quantity supplied and quantity demanded across all units in the economy. Consider producers j=1,2,….J providing composite food items A hj (highly nutritious -fruits and vegetables) and A mj (energy dense -maize) using unconditional inputs h kj (capital) and h kj (labor) with corresponding input prices of r kj (price of capital) and r kj (price of labor), then the cost and production function (which is increasing in input, concave, and linearly homogenous) can be specified as:"}]},{"head":"Photo: CCAFS","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":2,"text":"Eq. 1"},{"index":2,"size":59,"text":"Given the price vector p k ={p h ,p m ), where p h is the price of fruits and vegetables (A h ) and p m is the price of maize (A m ), the producers or firms (food retail environment) choose input bundles that solve the profit (π kj ) maximization problem for each of the firm:"},{"index":3,"size":2,"text":"Eq. 3b"},{"index":4,"size":2,"text":"Eq. 3a"},{"index":5,"size":6,"text":"The first order conditions (FOCs) are:"},{"index":6,"size":10,"text":"Solving for (3a) and (3b) yields the optimal input demand:"},{"index":7,"size":17,"text":"Substituting the optimal input in equation ( 1) yields the optimal output or supply of food items:"},{"index":8,"size":239,"text":"The above results show that producers will supply different quantity of the bundle of goods to maximize their profit. Several deductions are made to explain the food retail environment. First, consumers will choose the optimal bundle of healthiest food if prices faced by the consumers are in a ratio that perfectly aligns with the healthiest choice, which is an exceptional case. Promotion and consumption of highly nutritious food will only occur when the price of higher calorie foods (e.g., maize) is higher than the optimal, and the price of other nutritious foods that are currently under-consumed (legumes, fruits, and vegetables) is lower than the optimal. Second, decreasing the price of nutritious food will increase its consumption; however, high transaction costs of preservation and transportation, and change in prices due to relative productivity (increase in productivity of grains and decrease in productivity of legumes, fruits, and vegetables) will reduce the intake of nutritious and healthy foods. Third, higher levels of income are associated with greater consumption of nutritious food. However, preferences for and consumption of high-calorie food may increase despite an increase in income, which can result in excessive weight gain and obesity. In an imperfect market, prices, income, profit maximization, utility maximization, and many cultural and stochastic factors all drive food choices and the food retail environment. These findings align with what Allen and de Brauw ( 2018) found in their study on the theory of nutrition-sensitive value chains."},{"index":9,"size":22,"text":"To incorporate the consumer's perspective, we modeled the consumer problem using the static labor supply model proposed by Blundell and MaCurdy (1999)."},{"index":10,"size":43,"text":"The model integrates production, consumption, and investment in a single framework, assuming a household is a consumer of purchased composite goods, A hi and A mi and leisure L i . A household maximizes a twice continuously differentiable quasi-concave preference function specified as:"},{"index":11,"size":2,"text":"Eq. 6"},{"index":12,"size":2,"text":"Eq. 5"},{"index":13,"size":2,"text":"Eq. 4"},{"index":14,"size":22,"text":"where the utility derived from consuming A hi ,A mi ,L i is affected by household characteristics, X, and human capital, Z."},{"index":15,"size":63,"text":"Given that a household uses labor in home production, the household technology will be Q i =Q_i (h k1i ,h k2i ;Z). Assuming the price for leisure is w, and the price vector of the food items demanded is p c ={p d ,p n ), and the household is endowed with 24 hours (T), the full budget income constraint is expressed as:"},{"index":16,"size":83,"text":"where V is unearned income (transfers, remittances, etc.), p d and p n are the prices of fruits and vegetables and maize, respectively, and wT i -wh k = G. The budget constraint suggests a trade-off between consuming A hi , A mi , and L. The household chooses the optimal quantity of the food items and leisure to maximize utility. The consumers choose the optimal bundle of the goods (fruits and vegetables, and maize ) that solve equation ( 8) as follows:"},{"index":17,"size":2,"text":"Eq. 10"},{"index":18,"size":2,"text":"Eq. 8"},{"index":19,"size":2,"text":"Eq. 7"},{"index":20,"size":18,"text":"Assuming interior solutions (A h > 0, A m > 0, and L > 0), the FOCs are:"},{"index":21,"size":19,"text":"The optimal demand for fruits and vegetables, and maize obtained by solving equation ( 9) are expressed as follows:"},{"index":22,"size":2,"text":"Eq. 9"},{"index":23,"size":36,"text":"The equilibrium price (p* h , p* m ) and quantity (A* hi ,A* mi ) for the food items is obtained by equating the aggregate supply (Equation 5) to aggregate demand (Equation 10) as follows:"},{"index":24,"size":2,"text":"Eq. 11"},{"index":25,"size":2,"text":"Eq. 12"}]},{"head":"Figure 2","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":20,"text":"Equilibrium price and quantity demanded for fruits and vegetables and maize. Source: Authors' construction based on analysis of food environment"},{"index":2,"size":134,"text":"Figure 2 shows the equilibrium price and quantity at which high-calorie foods (e.g., maize, rice, and cassava) and highly nutritious foods (e.g., grain legumes, animal protein, fruits, and vegetables) are made available by suppliers and are affordable to consumers. The equilibrium indicates that both suppliers in the food retail environment and consumers are satisfied with the price and quantity of the different food categories. Either a shift in the demand side factors (household characteristics, preferences, transfers, and remittances) or supply side factors (tax, firms' preferences and improved infrastructure) can lead to a change in availability, affordability, and accessibility of nutrient-rich food items. For example, an increase in household income can lead to an upward shift in the demand for both food types (maize and fruits and vegetables), leading to an excess demand over supply."},{"index":3,"size":174,"text":"Equilibrium in the fruits and vegetables market is restored by an upward shift of the supply curve leading to a decrease in price and quantity demanded. The current food retail environment in low-and middle-income countries is characterized by the presence of highly processed food. The presence is mainly due to neo-liberal trade policy leading to their affordability to most low-income consumers with subsequent increase in consumer demand. For suppliers, the demand by consumers of long-shelf-life products and potential profit motives contribute to a higher supply of such products in the food retail environment compared with alternatives (substitutes). Limited product information and suboptimal food choices on the part of consumers have contributed to consumer failure. With the growth of the multiple burdens of malnutrition, there is an urgent need to deal with the consumer, market, and governance failures, and transform the food retail environment to deliver healthy diets. Based on this review of the concepts and economic theory, the next section examines the policy interventions to nudge the food environment to deliver healthy diet options."},{"index":4,"size":7,"text":"Legumes, fruits and vegetables Maize, rice, cassava"}]},{"head":"Policy interventions to re-adjust and nudge the food environment","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":90,"text":"Imperfect consumer choices and inadequate private and public investments on post-production systems have a negative effect on the food retail environment in low-and middle-income countries. In spite of all the substantial investments in productivity-enhancing agricultural research in developing countries (Alene et al., 2009), failures of the food retail environment persist due to the less than commensurate investments in that sector among other factors. Therefore, resolving the challenges in the food retail environment will require economic changes, institutional changes, and new policies as well as education and awareness creation among consumers."}]},{"head":"The role of the public and private sectors and consumers in nudging the food environment","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":156,"text":"In a food retail environment, consumers have the ultimate choice to decide on a healthy or unhealthy diet. This choice can be constrained by prices, substitutes, convenience, access, beliefs, and availability, as discussed in Section 2. Civil society groups that represent consumers and aim to convince the public and private sectors to re-orient the food environment are often hindered by challenges (e.g., funds). The private sector is also affected by production costs, logistics, profit motive, and government regulations. In some cases, the Photo: Georgina Smith/CIAT private sector uses lobbying to influence the legislator or public initiatives to maximize firm benefits in the food environment, for instance, by influencing national dietary recommendations. The inability of the public sector to provide regulations and enforce laws also leads to government failure. For the food retail environment to function, all the different types of failure must be addressed and a more integrated policy process to address the challenges is required."}]},{"head":"Policy strategies to nudge the food retail environment","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":70,"text":"Policy options to nudge the food retail environment toward delivering healthier dietary options are classified into personal changes, private sector actions, and public sector initiatives. We argue that for a real transformation of the food retail environment to deliver healthy diets, all three policy dimensions must be implemented with a tripartite goal. These policy options are discussed under four thematic areas: taxes, government incentives, food industry initiatives, and consumer attitudes."}]},{"head":"Food taxes and subsidies","index":12,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":237,"text":"Fiscal measures relating to food taxes and subsidies can contribute to improving nutritional security and healthy diets by influencing producer supply and consumer demand. Positive effects of fiscal policies can be amplified if taxes for unhealthy choices (e.g., ultraprocessed, sweetened beverages, and highly dense foods) are combined with subsidies for healthy options, such as fresh fruits, legumes, and vegetables (Global Panel, 2017). Taxes and subsidies can be used as effective tools for nudging unfavorable food retail environments to deliver healthy dietary options. Imposition of a prohibitive tax on unhealthy options will likely result in increases in prices (as producers and suppliers will likely pass on the tax to consumers) and thus a decline in consumers' real income, purchasing power and, by extension, a decline in the demand and consumption level of unhealthy foods. As discussed in Section 2, producers and retailers will likely respond to the decline in demand (i.e., a shift in the demand curve to the left) by reducing production and supply (i.e., a shift in the supply curve to the left), respectively. A shift in the demand (supply) curve to the left will result in an excess supply of unhealthy foods and thus a decline (increase) in the price of such commodities. The net effect of a proportionate shift of the demand and supply curves to the left is no change in affordability but a decline in availability (new equilibrium quantities) of unhealthy foods."},{"index":2,"size":135,"text":"Similarly, a subsidy implies a decline in price or an increase in real income or purchasing power. Hence subsidizing healthy foods (e.g., fresh fruits, vegetables, and grain legumes) will result in an increase in demand for such foods (i.e., a shift of the supply curve to the right resulting in an increase in the quantity and a decline in the price of healthy foods) thereby triggering a supply response in production and supply of heathy diets in the food retail environment. Consumers will likely respond to the decline in price (or increase in disposable income for consuming healthier foods) thereby shifting the demand curve to the right. The net effect of a proportionate rightward shift of the demand and supply curves is zero change in price but an increase in the availability of healthy foods."},{"index":3,"size":152,"text":"Instead of implementing a fixed tax or subsidy, one option could be to implement a discriminatory or progressive tax and subsidy policy through which vulnerable groups could enjoy bigger subsidies on healthy foods. In addition to subsidizing or taxing foods, the food generation process itself can be taxed or subsidized to deliver healthy options. The imposition of taxes on research and development of unhealthy foods or the imposition of subsidies on research and development of healthy foods (e.g., crops with low glycemic indices, high iron, etc.) would increase the availability of healthy diet options. For developing countries, subsidies for fruits, vegetables, or other more nutritious foods remain largely conceptual at this stage (Allen and de Brauw, 2018) due to competing and rather high demand on public funds. Where subsidies are implemented, cost, governance, and institutional challenges in managing such programs have been critical components in ensuring the success of the subsidy program."}]},{"head":"Government incentives","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":203,"text":"National governments have ample opportunity to reduce the public, market, and consumers' failures. This can be achieved through nudging the food retail environment to deliver healthy dietary options. Governments could enforce labelling, regulations, and standards to support consumer decision making. Accurate labelling enables health-conscious individuals to avoid unhealthy foods or opt for healthy foods, thus leading to a fall (increase) in aggregate demand for unhealthy (heathy) options. In the long run, producers and suppliers will readjust to meet the rise or fall in demand. Through public sector policies and effective reporting mechanisms, misleading food labels can be reported. Lessons in implementing such food labelling in developed countries can be adopted by low-and middle-income countries. The evidence suggests large companies with a range of products have been shown to respond to labeling policies strategically as labeling costs are relatively minor for them. Smaller firms that are likely to be responsible for a significant amount of food share in a developing country could find it more difficult to comply with labeling policies. Therefore, governments need to be attentive to the challenges that small and medium enterprises face in complying with labeling policies, and it may be necessary to make special provisions for them (Albert, 2016)."},{"index":2,"size":50,"text":"State, territory, and local governments should, where possible, ensure strict zoning for different types of food businesses to ensure that for each food business zone there are retail outlets that deliver healthy food options. This will likely make healthy food options easily available and accessible (i.e., improvements in food supply)"},{"index":3,"size":72,"text":"Photo: Georgina Smith/CIAT thereby increasing consumers' choice sets for a healthy food basket. National governments could reorient their food, nutrition, and agricultural policies to encourage diversity, nutrition, sustainability, and affordability, rather than only prioritizing a small number of staple crops, such as maize, rice, and soybean. Increasing diversity in the food environment will likely improve accessibility and affordability as more food options or food supply tend to be inversely correlated with price."},{"index":4,"size":126,"text":"Major constraints to high-quality diets are high transaction costs and unreliable, or a lack of, supporting infrastructure, such as remote roads and electrical-and water-grid networks. In developing countries, where food loss is a major issue, investing in better infrastructure, particularly cooling and storage facilities, is paramount (Global Panel, 2018). To reduce the high transaction costs and ensure high volumes of production and diversity of crops among producers, the public sector can partner with private institutions through public private partnerships (PPPs) to provide improved storage techniques and infrastructure and complement an effective price information system. This will improve supply, thereby, shifting the supply curve to the right leading to improved availability (an increase in the new equilibrium quantity) and affordability (a decline in the new equilibrium price)."}]},{"head":"Food industry initiatives","index":14,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":188,"text":"The food retail environment and food industry actors can take steps to implement measures that improve the delivery of heathy diets. In developed economies and part of low-and middle-income countries, food industry actors due to public sector support have broadly implemented sodium/salt reduction. This has been an important and cost-effective way of reducing the risk of cardiovascular diseases and hypertension. In addition, food advertising and marketing is a powerful behavioral change mechanism that attracts heavy investment from the private sector, charities, civil groups, and governments. The amount that food and beverage companies invested in advertising in 2012 was 17 percent of all global media spending (Global Panel, 2017). These advertisements were mostly used to promote the consumption of less healthy foods and beverages targeted at children. Food industry actors could use these advertisements to instead promote the sale of heathy foods without compromising profits 1 and people's health. In all countries, there is a need to improve the design of labels to make them accessible and appealing to all types of people. Improving label legibility is a relatively quick way to improve the way consumers use nutrition information."}]},{"head":"Consumer attitudes","index":15,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":162,"text":"From a demand side perspective, consumers have the ultimate responsibility to make healthy food choices and hold the power to influence the types of food that are delivered by the food environment. The ability of consumers to make sound food choices has been affected by personal and external/institutional limitations. In some cases, the limited amount of information has hindered consumers' ability to make food choices. Consumers have the power to influence the food environment through demand for healthy diets: opting for more fruits, vegetables, nuts, legumes, whole grains, and livestock products. It is also important for consumers to eat a variety of food not only to obtain a diversity of nutrients but also to support biodiversity in the food system. Consuming too much food can lead to weight gain and other health problems thereby posing greater challenges to the environment. Taking the time to share meals with family and friends and choosing single serving portions are two simple ways to avoid overeating."}]},{"head":"Photo: Georgina Smith/CIAT","index":16,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":23,"text":"1 Rather than engaging in competitive advertisements, individual actors who retail healthy foods could jointly promote the consumption of healthy foods in general."}]},{"head":"Conclusion","index":17,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Photo: Stéfanie Neno and Adriana Varón/CIAT","index":18,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":29,"text":"2 Pareto-efficiency is the condition where it is no longer possible to improve the welfare of an actor in the food retail environment without making other actors worse off."},{"index":2,"size":167,"text":"Relying on only production systems or consumer awareness and educational interventions alone will not have the impact required to improve nutrition security and achieve the SDGs. The food retail environment -the under-examined interphase -is critical to solving the malnutrition problem in low-and middle-income countries. As the evidence suggests, in the market environment, consumers make food choices to maximize utility and suppliers supply food to maximize their profit. Although the market will adjust to establish an equilibrium, this might not necessarily be the pareto-efficient 2 option for society. This is largely because of persistent market, government, and consumer limitations. The current limited understanding of the political economy of the food environment as well as economic analysis on healthy diets, modelling consumer choices, and future consumption scenarios are knowledge gaps that future research should address. We argue that for the food retail environment to deliver healthy dietary options and satisfy the nutritional needs of society, consumers and the public and private sectors must work together and take action now."}]}],"figures":[{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "}],"sieverID":"4860e20b-ff59-441e-b932-173b472b7cc2","abstract":"The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) is a CGIAR research center. CIAT works in collaboration with multiple partners to make farming more competitive, profitable, and sustainable through research-based solutions in agriculture and the environment. We help policymakers, scientists, and farmers respond to some of the most pressing challenges of our time, including food insecurity and malnutrition, climate change, and environmental degradation. Our global research contributes to several of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. Headquartered in Cali, Colombia, CIAT conducts research for development in tropical regions of Latin America, Africa, and Asia. www.ciat.cgiar.org CGIAR is a global research partnership for a food-secure future, dedicated to reducing poverty, enhancing food and nutrition security, and improving natural resources."}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"0717e78d7d3f73d6cb07bafea5dac181","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/8b6f77e3-fabc-4013-b97d-55eee0452d9c/retrieve"},"pageCount":44,"title":"Rapid Climate Risk Assessment for the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Region","keywords":["Ira Mint-unsplash Photo: (Top Left) V. Meadu (CCAFS)","(Top Right) USAID","(Bottom Left) USAID Siegfried Modola","(Bottom Right) USAID/Siegfried Modola Dean Chahim IPSL-CM5A-LR RCP8.5 CanESM2 RCP8.5 RCP8.5/ 4.5 RCP4.5 NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M RCP8.5/ 4.5 NorESM1-M RCP8.5/ 4.5"],"chapters":[{"head":"INPUT PLAN PROSPECTION REFLECTION STRATEGY","index":1,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Context","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":4,"text":"Why is it happening?"},{"index":2,"size":5,"text":"What will we do differently?"},{"index":3,"size":8,"text":"Figure 1. IPCC climate risk framework (IPCC 2014)."},{"index":4,"size":11,"text":"10 Table 1. Available GCM/RCM combinations for CORDEX-Africa RCP8.5 and RCP4.5."}]},{"head":"16","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":54,"text":"Table 2. Vulnerability indicators identified and used in the analysis (adapted from Thornton et al. 2008).   RCP4.5 (2031RCP4.5 ( -2059)), as compared to the historical time period .  Multi-model ensemble mean of change in 95th percentile of rainfall (R95) by mid-century in RCP4.5 (2031RCP4.5 ( -2059)), as compared to the historical time period ."},{"index":2,"size":91,"text":"23 Figure 8. Multi-model ensemble mean of change in 95th percentile of rainfall (R95) by mid-century in RCP8.5 (2031RCP8.5 ( -2059)), as compared to the historical time period . The assessment uses regional climate models from CORDEX-Africa to map rainfall extremes and drought hazards to 2031-2059. Ten social and biophysical vulnerability indicators are identified from across the capital assets (human, physical, social, financial, natural), using data from the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), to develop a vulnerability index. The vulnerability index and distribution of climate hazards are mapped to identify hotspots."},{"index":3,"size":63,"text":"Hotspots of vulnerability to and risk of extreme rainfall are shown in northern Madagascar and in south west Tanzania, under both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Hotspots for drought under these scenarios are shown in Tanzania. However, it is clear that medium-high climate risk (high vulnerability, medium-high climate hazard) is widespread across Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Tanzania, Mozambique, and Madagascar."},{"index":4,"size":3,"text":"Photo: Kon Karampelas-unsplash"},{"index":5,"size":4,"text":"Seven Key Recommendations 1."}]},{"head":"2.","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":1,"text":"3."}]},{"head":"4.","index":5,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"5.","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":1,"text":"7."}]},{"head":"6.","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":28,"text":"Hotspots of vulnerability to and risk of extreme rainfall and drought occur in northern Madagascar and south west Tanzania, under both medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios."},{"index":2,"size":18,"text":"Areas of high vulnerability coupled with medium-high climate hazard are widespread across Angola, DRC, Tanzania, Mozambique and Madagascar."},{"index":3,"size":40,"text":"There is a mismatch between locations with the highest future climate risk and where on-the-ground research on climate change impacts and adaptation is currently being undertaken, with potentially serious consequences for testing and implementation of appropriate and robust adaptation options."},{"index":4,"size":28,"text":"Population growth in these areas is projected to remain high to mid-century -robust targeting and implementation of on-theground research for development is needed, based on national policy objectives."},{"index":5,"size":48,"text":"National policy objectives are required that identify robust and climate resilient pathways for agricultural and economic development to prevent sub-optimal or maladaptive choices now, such as replacing crops like rice with maize in response to current climate change, which is likely to be unproductive under future climate conditions."},{"index":6,"size":53,"text":"There is a role and need for participatory processes that bring together food system actors in high-risk locations to identify needs and design and implement responses that are tailored to the specific contexts of those locations, there is not a \"one size fits all\" that will work in all contexts within a country."}]},{"head":"Introduction","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":59,"text":"This report presents a rapid climate risk assessment for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. The goal is to identify climate risk hotspots -locations where climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability coincide to increase the risks of adverse impacts. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk framework is used to structure this analysis (Figure 1) (IPCC 2014)."},{"index":2,"size":18,"text":"In this framework, natural variability and anthropogenic (human induced) climate change create climate hazards, which are geographically distributed."},{"index":3,"size":6,"text":"A climate hazard is defined as:"},{"index":4,"size":60,"text":"\"The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and environmental resources\" (IPCC 2012). Socio-economic processes (e.g., economic activities, livelihoods, decision-making) determine whether communities or economies are exposed to climate hazards and whether they are vulnerable."},{"index":5,"size":4,"text":"Exposure is defined as:"},{"index":6,"size":25,"text":"\"The presence of people; livelihoods; environmental services and resources; infrastructure; or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected\" (IPCC 2012)."},{"index":7,"size":4,"text":"Vulnerability is defined as:"},{"index":8,"size":10,"text":"\"The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected\" (IPCC 2012)."}]},{"head":"Climate risk","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":137,"text":"Is where hazards, exposure and vulnerability intersect and interact, so that risk is not just about the natural hazard but also about the socio-ecological system where that hazard occurs. For example, the activity of an economy might lead to emissions that drive climate change, which in turn might increase the severity and occurrence of flooding. But an economic system that encourages building houses on higher ground, implements a variety of flood defence and mitigation measures, and invests in economic activities that are not impacted by flooding, can both reduce exposure to the climate hazard, and vulnerability of the economy and communities to flooding hazards, and hence have a lower climate risk. However, a different economy exposed to the same severity and intensity of hazard might face very different climate risks, because of differences in exposure and vulnerability."},{"index":2,"size":3,"text":"Photo: Curioso Photography-unsplash"}]},{"head":"Future impacts on cereal productivity","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":63,"text":"Ecological-economic models (Fischer et al. 2005) Climate risk mapping has been widely used to understand the distribution of and interaction between climate and other stressors. Different studies use different approaches, models and indicators to understand current and future risks. For example, Fischer et al. (2005) used ecological-economic models that linked crops, climate and trade to estimate future impacts on crop production in Africa."},{"index":2,"size":154,"text":"They found that net cereal production potential will fall but with large variations between countries. Similarly, the yield response models produced by Schlenker and Lobell (2010) use crop and weather data alongside farmer responses (i.e. adaptations) to look at the impacts on four different crops (sorghum, millet, maize, groundnuts) across Africa. They found that the impacts on yields of these important and staple food crops are likely to be mostly negative. Data availability is also a critical limitation for studies of this type. Data for some countries was either not available or only available at a country level. Where this has been the case the data has been sourced from an alternative database (where possible) and some data has been downscaled to county/district level by assigning each county/ district the same value, making the assumption that the country data is representative of every county/district. As a result, these indicators will not differentiate between counties/districts."},{"index":3,"size":41,"text":"Uncertainty is an inherent feature of these studies. What is presented here is not a projection of the future, but presentation of possible futures, and it is unlikely to have identified all possible hotspots in the region.  (Sonwa et al. 2017)."},{"index":4,"size":34,"text":"Here the focus is on droughts and extreme rainfall, as between 1970 and 2020 these were the most common types of climate hazards in Africa (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters 2020)."},{"index":5,"size":168,"text":"The region is highly sensitive to droughts due to a dependence on rainfed agriculture (Adejuwon and Olaniyan 2019). Droughts adversely affect water supplies, crop and livestock production and cause food insecurity and conflicts among competing water users (Oguntunde et al. 2017;Adejuwon and Olaniyan 2019). Some crops show more climate resilience than others, but the majority of projected impacts of climate change on rainfed agriculture are negative (Serdeczny et al. 2017). As well as being adversely affected by droughts, much of the SADC region is also negatively impacted by extreme rainfall (Tarhule 2005). Extreme rainfall can lead to landslides and soil erosion, and to floods that can cause direct injury and death to people and livestock, as well as damage infrastructure and fields (Chamani et al. 2018;Tarhule 2005;Tschakert et al. 2010;Sonwa et al. 2017). Extreme rainfall is a necessary but not sufficient condition for damaging floods; land use patterns, drainage and waste management infrastructure are also important, however, with increasing rainfall intensity flood risk increases (Tazen et al. 2019)."},{"index":6,"size":104,"text":"Climate change may exacerbate both of these hazards. Previous work has found that the occurrence and severity of droughts in Africa are likely to worsen with climate change due to increases in temperature and changes in rainfall (Adejuwon and Olaniyan 2019;Oguntunde et al. 2017;Gan et al. 2016). There is large uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of climate change impacts on mean rainfall for the region (Rowell and Chadwick 2018), however, extreme rainfall is expected to increase over large parts of the region (Kendon et al. 2019;Sonkoué et al. 2018;Amoussou et al. 2020), and so the associated risk of floods (Tazen et al. 2019)."},{"index":7,"size":137,"text":"Previous analyses of climate hazards over Africa have focussed primarily on the CMIP5 ensemble of global climate models. Here we make use of the CORDEX-Africa ensemble of regional climate models, which improve on the representation of climate over global climate models, particularly when it comes to extreme events and precipitation (Paeth and Mannig 2013;Gibba et al. 2018;Diallo et al. 2015). In comparison with other extreme weather events, storms (including tropical cyclones) result in the most human displacement. For example, in the SADC region approximately 1.7 million people were left homeless between 1980 and 2016 due to storms (Davis-Reddy and Vincent 2017). The associated flooding disproportionately affects communities with poor infrastructure and health services, often resulting in a loss of life, injury, damage to property and infrastructure as well as the spread of disease e.g. malaria and cholera."}]},{"head":"CLIMATE HAZARDS CLIMATE HAZARDS OF CONCERN IN SOUTHERN AFRICA","index":11,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Droughts","index":12,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Floods","index":13,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Extreme weather events","index":14,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Salinity intrusion","index":15,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Sea level rise","index":16,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Temperature changes","index":17,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Changes to seasonal patterns","index":18,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"CYCLONES","index":19,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":38,"text":"Madagascar was affected by five cyclones during the 1993-1994 season. In 1994, Cyclone Geralda (category 5) destroyed more than 90% of the port city of Toamasina. The damage was estimated at USD 10 million (Davis-Reddy and Vincent 2017)."},{"index":2,"size":20,"text":"In 2000, Cyclone Eline caused severe flooding in Mozambique and to a lesser extent in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Botswana."},{"index":3,"size":43,"text":"High winds, torrential rains and high river flows resulted in economic losses and damage to infrastructure, livelihoods, and agricultural crops. In Mozambique alone, around 700 people lost their lives and the GDP growth rate dropped from 10% to 2% (Davis-Reddy and Vincent 2017)."},{"index":4,"size":37,"text":"In 2004, Cyclone Gafilo (category 5) hit Madagascar. It was the most intense tropical cyclone worldwide in 2004. It was estimated that approximately 773,000 people were affected, and it cost USD 250 million in damages (ReliefWeb 2004)."},{"index":5,"size":40,"text":"In 2019, Cyclone Idai hit Beira in Mozambique and then continued moving across the region. Millions of people were affected in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. Cyclone Idai was the worst natural disaster to hit Southern Africa in around two decades."},{"index":6,"size":89,"text":"Six weeks later, Cyclone Kenneth made landfall in northern Mozambique. This was the first occurrence of two strong tropical cyclones hitting the country in the same season. The cyclones caused severe flooding, destroying infrastructure and more than 800,000 hectares of crop land over the three SADC member states (SADC 2019). Approximately, 3.3 million people were affected by the cyclones, requiring immediate humanitarian assistance, including food, shelter, clothing, potable water, sanitation, and medical support. The affected population also faced epidemic threats of cholera, other diarrheal infections, and malaria (UNICEF 2019)."},{"index":7,"size":24,"text":"In the second stage we characterised underlying social and biophysical vulnerability across the SADC region. Following the methodological approach of Thornton et al. (2008) "}]},{"head":"Methods","index":20,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":83,"text":"We used the regional climate models available from CORDEX-Africa to analyse climate hazards in the SADC region. The CORDEX-Africa models are available at a 0.44° x 0.44° resolution. The multi-model ensemble for RCP8.5 includes 6 RCMs (regional climate models) with 11 different GCMs (global climate models) providing initial and boundary driving conditions, and for RCP4.5 7 RCMs and 9 different GCMs. The matrix of GCM/RCM combinations is presented in Table 1. We used 1971-1999 as the historical period, 2031-2059 as the mid-century period."},{"index":2,"size":141,"text":"We examined the impact of extreme rainfall by looking at the 95th percentile of daily rainfall (R95 index), and drought by looking at the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), as defined by Vicente-Serrano et al. ( 2010), which is a commonly used drought index that performs well compared to alternatives (Labudová et al. 2017) and has been used in Africa (e.g. Abiodun et al. 2018;Adejuwon and Olaniyan 2019;Ghebrezgabher et al. 2016;Oguntunde et al. 2017;Polong et al. 2019;Ujeneza and Abiodun 2015). We used 1955-1970 as the reference period, and looked at droughts over 1 month in duration and used the log-logistic distribution. We performed the calculation using the 'SPEI' package for R statistical software (Begueria and Serrano 2017;R Core Team 2013). Using SPEI, a value of -1 is classified as a drought, and -2 and below is classified as a severe drought. "}]},{"head":"Governance","index":21,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":10,"text":"Table 1. Available GCM/RCM combinations for CORDEX-Africa RCP8.5 and RCP4.5."},{"index":2,"size":48,"text":"A total of 10 indicators were chosen based on data availability and where possible, we identified and used the most recent data sources (Table 2). Below, we give a summary of each indicator and briefly discuss their hypothesised relationships with vulnerability to climate hazards. (Carney 1998) Human capital"}]},{"head":"Physical capital","index":22,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":111,"text":"The health poverty headcount indicator represents the percentage of the population considered poor. It measures deprivation of health standards within a given household where a household is considered poor if: a) any adult (under 70 years old) or child within the household is considered undernourished, and b) any child (under 18 years) has died in the five years preceding the survey. The potential impacts from climate change on human health are complex and largely adverse, for example, exacerbating challenges with food and nutrition security (Wolski et al. 2020), manifesting through new distributions in disease vectors (Caminade et al. 2014;Moore et al. 2017) and aggravating underlying health problems (Kapwata et al. 2018)."},{"index":2,"size":13,"text":"Higher poverty headcounts for health are therefore associated with higher levels of vulnerability."},{"index":3,"size":21,"text":"The  (Lutz et al. 2014). We therefore assume that higher poverty headcounts for education are associated with higher levels of vulnerability."},{"index":4,"size":20,"text":"The standard of living indicator measures deprivation of living standards by combining six indicators. A household is considered poor if:"},{"index":5,"size":12,"text":"The household cooks with un-improved fuel, e.g. dung, wood, charcoal or coal;"},{"index":6,"size":27,"text":"Either their sanitation facility is not improved, in accordance with sustainable development goal (SDG) guidelines, or their sanitation facilities are improved but are shared with other households;"},{"index":7,"size":26,"text":"Either the household has no access to improved drinking water, in line with SDG guidelines, or the distance to safe drinking water exceeds a 30-minute round-trip;"},{"index":8,"size":5,"text":"The household has no electricity;"},{"index":9,"size":27,"text":"One or more of the three housing materials (for roof, walls and floor) are made of either rudimentary or natural materials and are therefore considered inadequate; and"},{"index":10,"size":23,"text":"Household members do not own more than one listed asset (radio, TV, telephone, computer, animal cart, bicycle, motorbike, refrigerator), or a motorised vehicle."},{"index":11,"size":68,"text":"A good standard of living is a prerequisite for human development and wellbeing (Rao and Min 2018). Sturdy infrastructure protects against inclement weather, access to potable water and safe sanitation protects against water-borne diseases, and the use of improved energy sources reduces health burdens (e.g. linked to indoor air pollution), especially for women and children. Thus, a lower standard of living equates to higher levels of underlying vulnerability."},{"index":12,"size":140,"text":"For countries lacking MPI data (i.e. Botswana, Mauritius and the Seychelles), a related measure of poverty was sought. This resulted in the combined use of World Bank indicators for percentage of people/homes living on less than USD 1.90, with access to clean cooking fuels, access to basic sanitation and drinking water, and access to electricity (N.B. rationale for the inclusion of these data is provided within the Section on Creating risk maps Page 19).The access to market indicator measures travel time to the nearest urban area in excess of 20,000 people. Markets are important for reducing vulnerability as they stimulate livelihood and income diversification, particularly into off-farm sectors (Haggblade et al. 2010). Households nearer markets also tend to have better access to services (e.g. education, health and extension). We therefore assume that better market access is associated with reduced vulnerability.   "}]},{"head":"Social capital","index":23,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":15,"text":"The gender inequality indicator measures disparities between men and women in three areas of development:"},{"index":2,"size":6,"text":"Reproductive health, Empowerment, and Economic status."},{"index":3,"size":147,"text":"Reproductive health quantifies maternal mortality ratios and adolescent birth rate. Empowerment encompasses both the proportion of parliamentary seats occupied by women, and the percentage women and men (above the age of 25) with secondary education. Economic status measures the labour force participation rates of men and women over the age of 15. The majority of the world's poor are women 1 and women typically experience the most severe impacts from climate change in situations of poverty. For example, in the aftermath of a disaster, women are more likely than men to be displaced and be victims of violence (Cutter 2017). Women have less access to, and control over, resources, which undermines their ability to cope with and adapt to climate impacts. Subsequently, women also have fewer capabilities than men, limiting their contributions to decision-making processes (World Bank 2009). Higher gender inequality therefore represents higher levels of vulnerability."},{"index":4,"size":30,"text":"The governance indicator uses data from the World Bank, based on a study by Kaufmann et al. (2005). Following (Thornton et al. 2008), we use two of the six dimensions:"},{"index":5,"size":3,"text":"Voice and accountability"}]},{"head":"Government effectiveness","index":24,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":72,"text":"Because all six indicators cannot be meaningfully combined for a given country. Scores for the two indicators were normalised into quintiles at national level. Good governance creates enabling environments for investment, job creation and effective implementation of regulations, such as those related to climate adaptation, and is associated with higher adaptive capacity at the national level (Brooks et al. 2005). We therefore assume that better governance equates to lower levels of vulnerability."}]},{"head":"Financial capital","index":25,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Natural capital","index":26,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":111,"text":"Per capita GDP provides a measure for estimating the economic prosperity of a country, where income is associated with access to resources. Whilst economic indicators such as GDP have been found to be poor indicators of mortality as a result of climate-related disasters (Brooks et al. 2005), losses in GDP have been used to measure national vulnerability to climate impacts (Formetta and Feyen 2019), and per capita GDP has also been used as a measure for economic security (Li et al. 2019). We assume that higher per capita GDP is associated with lower levels of vulnerability, although we note that this also assumes that resources are distributed equally amongst the population."},{"index":2,"size":79,"text":"The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Mase et al. 2017), particularly in rainfed systems across much of the SADC region (Cooper et al. 2008). National economies more dependent on agriculture are therefore more susceptible to climate impacts and expected changes. Countries with higher economic dependency on agriculture may also be less diverse (Thornton et al. 2008). Higher contributions of agricultural GDP to total GDP is therefore assumed to be associated with higher vulnerability."},{"index":3,"size":94,"text":"The crop production suitability indicator considers the known and calculated rainfed pasture and crop requirements, the dominant soil conditions of a given area, and soil management practices used, under intermediate input scenarios, as stipulated by FAO (2007). Whilst rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, areas with higher crop suitability provide greater diversification options for rural populations (e.g. growing different, or a range of crops), offering opportunities for risk spreading, thus increasing resilience (Lin 2011;Speranza et al. 2014). We thus assume that higher cropping suitability is associated with lower vulnerability."},{"index":4,"size":101,"text":"The soil erosion indicator assesses human-induced soil erosion resulting from land use/land cover change. The modelled data do not include short-term impacts from land use (e.g. fire and wood harvesting), overgrazing and climate change effects. Soil erosion rates are divided into seven classes (ranging from 0-350 t/25km cell sample), according to the European Soil Bureau classifications. Soil degradation, which can be exacerbated by climate change and extreme events, undermines agricultural productivity and reduces water quality (FAO 2015). Extreme rainfall events and flooding can also trigger landslides. Areas with higher levels of soil erosion are therefore considered to be more vulnerable. c."},{"index":5,"size":2,"text":"Photo: Dimitry-unsplash"}]},{"head":"CREATING RISK MAPS","index":27,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":81,"text":"To further visualise and understand the vulnerability of each nation, indicator values were normalised to make them comparable before combining them into an index of average vulnerability. To achieve this, the separate map layers for each vulnerability indicator were combined into a single database and exported to Excel. Within Excel the quartile range for each indicator was determined and values were reassigned to a quartile depending on whether they fell within the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th quartile of all values."},{"index":2,"size":130,"text":"The assignment of values, whether to the 1st or 4th quartile, was based on whether a high figure for a given indicator was deemed to be good or bad, and vice versa (e.g. for Soil Loss, high loss was deemed to be bad and was consequently assigned a value of 1, i.e. the 1st quartile; conversely high GDP was deemed to be good if falling within the upper 25% of values and assigned a value of 4, i.e. the 4th quartile). Following data processing each indicator quartile, within each nation, was summed and divided by the number of total indicators for each country to provide an average (mean) level of vulnerability on a continuous scale of 1.0-4.0 (representing each quartile), with 1.0 being highly vulnerable and 4.0 being less vulnerable."},{"index":3,"size":28,"text":"To visualise the range of vulnerability indicators across the SADC region and to assist eventual identification of hotspots, all data were mapped using a Geographic Information System (GIS)."},{"index":4,"size":47,"text":"Initially, all data were imported into the GIS (ArcGIS 10.6) either in its raw tabulated form (e.g. for the MPI data) or, where available, in its original GIS format (e.g. the Distance to Market and Soil Erosion data are provided as raster map layers by data authors)."},{"index":5,"size":78,"text":"To present data in the regional context, national boundaries for each of the member nations of the SADC and the respective first and second level district boundaries were also imported into the mapping environment. Using the Join -Relate function of the GIS, data for the Human, Physical, Financial and Social capital indicators was assigned to their respective national boundary. This duly produced a suite of ten maps for each vulnerability indicator at a national scale (not shown here)."},{"index":6,"size":60,"text":"The data gap for Botswana was filled using alternative data (section on Vulnerability indicators Page 16) before calculating the combined average vulnerability for each county. Representative World Bank indicators for physical capital were identified and used to represent 'Living Standards' within Botswana, as well as Mauritius and the Seychelles (albeit fewer comparable indicators were found for the latter two countries)."},{"index":7,"size":35,"text":"Though similar, it is acknowledged that the World Bank data is not a direct replacement for the MPI measures of standard of living. However, inclusion was deemed preferable to exclusion of countries without MPI data."},{"index":8,"size":82,"text":"The normalised indicator data for each country, and the combined average indicator value for each country, were imported back into the GIS as a data table and, using the Join -Relate function, reassigned to the boundary map of each SADC country. This facilitated the production of a choropleth (or 'thematic') map showing the vulnerability index for each country across SADC allowing direct comparisons to be made across the region (Section on Vulnerability maps Page 24), though not with other countries and regions."},{"index":9,"size":176,"text":"To achieve greater resolution and accuracy within the vulnerability maps, the data allocation and normalisation exercise was repeated for each country's first and second level districts. For the tabulated data, this involved reassigning national values to districts (district level data was not available for several countries and/or there were significant inconsistencies in names of districts). For the raster and vector vulnerability data (i.e. Crop Suitability, Soil Loss and Distance to Market), however, this involved converting the map layers to data points and assigning them individually to each district using the Join -Relate function (where multiple points existed within a geographic area, the mean of values was assigned to the district). Though this procedure effectively adds weighting to these latter indicators, it provides the combined vulnerability maps with greater nuance in terms of identifying potential 'hotspots' and lessens the impact of data for key indicators, such as roads to markets, being effectively lost in a large country's national data (e.g. within the DRC) and Angola where there are fewer good quality roads to markets in the interior)."},{"index":10,"size":153,"text":"Simple raster layers were produced for each climate rainfall and drought scenario (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and overlaid onto the vulnerability map. Bivariate maps were also produced where the climate data raster layers were converted to data points and normalised in the manner described above for raster vulnerability data. The point data for climate risks was then assigned to the relevant districts (and averaged where multiple points fell within one district). As such, it should be noted that to produce the discrete figures required to produce a bivariate map (i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4 rather than 1.0-4.0) both the average climate risk and vulnerability data was rounded up or down to its nearest significant figure. This serves to heighten the severity, good or bad, of indicators, which should be noted in respect to interpretation of the maps, but also brings greater resolution and emphasise to potential hotspots of risk (relative to the wider SADC). "}]},{"head":"SYSTEMATIC EVIDENCE REVIEW","index":28,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":100,"text":"A systematic literature review was undertaken to compile evidence about regional SADC climate risks, adaptation and vulnerability. Systematic reviews seek to synthesise existing knowledge about a topic through a review of the literature focussed on specific research questions. The approach increases methodological transparency and rigour in the process of synthesising research by requiring that methods used are explicitly outlined and reproducible, and that document selection and review meets pre-defined and defensible eligibility criteria (Cooper et al. 2019;Fink 2020). A number of methodological guidelines exist (Pullin and Stewart 2006;Moher et al. 2009;Berrang-Ford et al. 2015), often tailored to particular disciplinary perspectives."},{"index":2,"size":22,"text":"Systematic reviews require similar specific components to be reported and generally include the following steps: We were guided by the following questions:"},{"index":3,"size":9,"text":"What are the key climate hazards linked to agriculture?"},{"index":4,"size":16,"text":"How and where do they interact with agricultural vulnerability and adaptations to create climate risk hotspots?"},{"index":5,"size":5,"text":"Literature source (justification and description):"},{"index":6,"size":95,"text":"We searched SCOPUS and Web of Knowledge databases because they contain a substantial collection of relevant research, and because they perform precisely and reproducibly when using an extensive Boolean search string, such as the one we used (Gusenbauer and Haddaway 2020). The search was limited to peer-reviewed literature, published since 2016 that included research conducted in SADC countries to enable compilation of the most recent evidence on climate risk and vulnerability across the region. Time constraints limited our ability to include research published prior to 2016. Only literature written in the English language was included."}]},{"head":"Search terms and process and selection criteria:","index":29,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":54,"text":"Literature was selected, screened, and then coded following the process and criteria outlined in Figure 2, which also details the search string and database fields used and the numbers of studies rejected at each step. The initial search was undertaken on May 5th 2020 by one researcher. Three researchers completed subsequent screening and coding."},{"index":2,"size":77,"text":"For quality control, all abstracts were double-screened, and retained for full review in the event of disagreement. Our initial search produced 759 research articles, which was reduced to a final set of 275 (Appendix A). Articles were generally excluded because they either did not focus on the SADC region, did not include empirical data (e.g. they were review papers), and/or did not identify findings or use data about the specified climate-related topics linked to agriculture (Figure 2)."}]},{"head":"1.","index":30,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":1,"text":"1."}]},{"head":"2.","index":31,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":1,"text":"2."}]},{"head":"3.","index":32,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":1,"text":"4."}]},{"head":"4.","index":33,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":3,"text":"Photo: Ryan Searle-unsplash"}]},{"head":"Analysis and presentation of results","index":34,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Summary of literature","index":35,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":3,"text":"Methods of analysis:"},{"index":2,"size":20,"text":"We developed a set of questions and a corresponding coded Excel spreadsheet to extract and store information from the papers."},{"index":3,"size":44,"text":"The same three researchers performed the coding exercise after piloting the questions and coded template. The final output was an Excel spreadsheet providing information about the location of the research, the focal agricultural system and climate hazards, and whether the research was vulnerability-and/or adaptation-oriented."}]},{"head":"Information quality:","index":36,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":44,"text":"We included only peer-reviewed data in our review in an attempt to assure research included was rigorous. More rigorous controls on information quality were precluded by time constraints. However, greater consideration of data quality was given to research included as climaterisk hotspot case studies."}]},{"head":"With the exception of 2018, research in the SADC countries about climate-related hazards and exposure of agricultural systems has increased year on year between 2016 and 2019","index":37,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":67,"text":"(Figure 2). The 23 articles published to April in 2020 and that met our review criteria, suggest a continuing trend. More research was conducted in Tanzania than any other SADC country, featuring in nearly one quarter (22%) of articles (Figure 2). South Africa, Zimbabwe, Malawi and Zambia were also frequently the geographic focus (occurring in between 14-18% of articles). The remaining 11 SADC countries received less attention."},{"index":2,"size":119,"text":"Only two studies were conducted in Lesotho and one in Mauritius and Comoros, and we did not find any research meeting our criteria conducted in the Seychelles. Fifty-five papers had a regional or global focus. Drought, temperature and precipitation were the hazards most frequently linked to agricultural systems. Sea-level rise and hazards linked to salinization were seldom the focus of investigation. Most (87%) of the articles reviewed included analysis of food crops. Livestock systems were considered in approximately one third of articles, whilst non-food crops, aquaculture and agroforestry systems received much less attention. The majority of studies focussed on agricultural system vulnerability to climate hazards. However, nearly half researched adaptation, and nearly one quarter (23%) were concerned with both. "}]},{"head":"CLIMATE HAZARD MAPS Droughts","index":38,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":92,"text":"By mid-century, the likelihood of droughts increases in both RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (Figure 3 and Figure 4). In RCP8.5, drought risk increases across most of the region, while in RCP4.5, droughts become more common primarily in the DRC, parts of East Africa, Angola and Namibia. The result of these changes in droughts is that in both RCP4.5 and 8.5 by mid-century droughts are common in most of the SADC region (Figure 5 and Figure 6). However, droughts are more severe in RCP8.5 than 4.5, although the most severe droughts remain rare.     "}]},{"head":"Extreme rainfall","index":39,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":77,"text":"Extreme rainfall increases by mid-century in both RCP4.5 and 8.5 in most of the northern SADC region. The increases in extreme rainfall are larger in RCP8.5 than in 4.5, and more widespread (Figure 7 and Figure 8). R95 is an indicator of an extreme that occurs on a yearly basis. Figure 9 and Figure 10 show that by mid-century, rainfall between 12-25 mm/day should be a yearly occurrence in the northern SADC region under RCP4.5 and 8.5."},{"index":2,"size":201,"text":"Recent research in East Africa has shown that there is a risk of landslides in susceptible areas (susceptibility depends on topography, land cover and soil type) with antecedent rainfall between 9.2 and 22 mm (Monsieurs et al. 2019). Research in the Sahel region has also shown floods are associated with 5-day rainfall totals of 30mm or more (Tazen et al. 2019). Rainfall at these levels could therefore be associated with risks of landslides and floods.  . Overlaid on vulnerability map where red = more vulnerable, blue = less vulnerable.   . Overlaid on vulnerability map where red = more vulnerable, blue = less vulnerable. By 2059, under a medium GHG emissions scenario, extreme rainfall events will be a yearly occurence in the north and east of the SADC region By 2059, most countries in the north of the SADC region, and Madagascar, will experience extreme rainfall events under a medium GHG emissions scenario By 2059, extreme rainfall events will be more widespread, including Losotho and parts of South Africa, under a high GHG emissions scenario By 2059, under a high GHG emissions scenario, extreme rainfall events will be a yearly occurence for much of the north and east of the SADC region"}]},{"head":"VULNERABILITY MAPS","index":40,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":120,"text":"Figure 11 represents the combined vulnerability index at national (inset) and district level. Vulnerability across the SADC region varies, with higher national-level vulnerability found in northern and eastern countries, including the DRC, Tanzania, Mozambique and Madagascar. There is a greater degree of variability between districts with, for example, countries such as Madagascar and areas such as northern Mozambique and south-western Angola demonstrating higher vulnerability. South Africa exhibits lowest overall levels of vulnerability, though urban districts (e.g. surrounding Pretoria and Johannesburg and in the south-western tip near to Cape Town) demonstrate the lowest vulnerability at a sub-national level. Risk hotspots for extreme rainfall under a medium GHG emissions scenario are found in Tanzania and Madagascar, but medium high risk is widespread"}]},{"head":"CLIMATE RISK HOTSPOTS","index":41,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":78,"text":"So far an overlay method has been used to provide a visual description of the impact of climate change across the SADC region, and where areas of greater vulnerability are located. However, the locations where the extremes in both climate hazard and vulnerability (i.e. hotspots) are located are difficult to identify. Bivariate choropleth maps enable the range of climate hazard to be combined with vulnerabilities within the same districts so that potential hotspots of concern can be identified."},{"index":2,"size":179,"text":"Presented are the bivariate maps for combined current vulnerability within districts and future rainfall and drought under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Vulnerability is represented from high (red), medium high (orange), medium low (green) and low (blue), while climate hazards are represented by colour shading from high (darker) to low (lighter) risk. Figure 12 suggests that there are hotspots of high rainfall and high vulnerability, therefore climate risk hotspots, along the northern coast of Madagascar (particularly Antsiranana and Toamasina) and along the coast of Lake Nyasha/Malawi (particularly the east coast around Ruvuma in Tanzania). Some further potential hotspots can also be seen along the eastern border of the DRC and the coasts of Angola and Mozambique. In comparison to the RCP.4.5 scenario, under RCP.8.5 there is little change between potential hotspots (Figure 13). Risk hotspots for extreme rainfall under a high GHG emissions scenario are found in Tanzania and Madagascar, but medium high risk is widespread across northern countries Risk hotspots for drought under a high GHG emissions scenario are found in Tanzania, but medium high risk is widespread"},{"index":3,"size":86,"text":"Potential hotspots of vulnerability to and risk of extreme droughts can be seen under the RCP4.5 scenario along Lake Nyasha/Malawi with medium high vulnerability, and high drought risk seen across extensive areas of Namibia, northern Zambia, inland Tanzania, and across large areas of the DRC (Figure 14). Under the RCP8.5 scenario the hotspots do not change significantly, with some climate risk reduced along the coast of Lake Nyasha/Malawi, and some increase in the area of the hotspot along the coast of Namibia (particularly IIKaras) (Figure 15)."},{"index":4,"size":64,"text":"It is clear across all the hotspot bivariate maps that mediumhigh climate risk (high vulnerability, medium-high climate hazard) is widespread under both future scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) and for extreme rainfall and droughts across Angola, DRC, Tanzania, Mozambique and Madagascar. Risk hotspots for drought under a medium GHG emissions scenario are found in Tanzania, but medium high risk is widespread Photo: Sonja Leitner (ILRI)"}]},{"head":"04","index":42,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":87,"text":"Comparing the climate risk maps with some previous studies Three studies were identified that have taken a broadly similar approach to climate risk mapping and the identification of climate risk hotspots across a broadly similar set of countries in Southern Africa: Thornton et al (2008) who examined poverty and climate change for sub-Saharan Africa; Midgley et al (2011) who mapped climate risk and vulnerability for Southern Africa, and Herding for Health (2020) who conducted a climate vulnerability assessment for Southern Africa's rangelands (excluding Tanzania, Malawi and DRC)."},{"index":2,"size":276,"text":"In the Thornton et al ( 2008) study hotspots of climate hazard were identified using Global Climate Models (GCMs) to calculate changes to the length of the growing season, combined with an agricultural system classification. This enabled agricultural systems at risk to be identified. Hotspots of vulnerability were identified by mapping 14 vulnerability indicators from across the capital assets, including soils, distance to markets, governance, incidence of malaria, etc. A principle components analysis was used to create four factors, explaining 63% of the variance, which were combined using the percentage variance explained to weight each factor, normalised and then quartiled. A qualitative synthesis of the results identified hotspots of vulnerability to climate change in the mixed rainfed crop-livestock systems of the Sahel, and in the great lakes region and mixed agricultural systems of East Africa. Livestock and mixed rainfed systems were considered most vulnerable to future changes in climate. Direct comparisons are difficult because of differences in spatial coverage. The creation of indices, and the use of quartiles to aggregate the data mean that areas and countries identified as high climate risk are done so in comparison to the other areas and countries included in the analysis. Each study has also used a different combination of climate models, with our study using the CORDEX-Africa ensemble rather than CMIP5 ensembles used in the other studies.. These models will have evolved in accuracy over time, from 2008 when the earliest study was undertaken (Thornton et al, 2008) to this study and that by Herding for Health in 2020. The data underlying the vulnerability and exposure indices used in all the studies will also have been updated over time."},{"index":3,"size":149,"text":"Nevertheless, all four studies identify comparatively higher climate risks for the areas further north and east in their study regions, from parts of Zambia and Mozambique for Herding for Health (2020); parts of Angola, DRC, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania and Madagascar for Midgley et al (2011); parts of Angola, DRC, Tanzania, Mozambique and Madagascar in this study, to the Sahel and parts of East Africa for Thornton et al (2008). This highlights the importance of considering vulnerabilities (in agricultural and social systems) as well as climate hazards (i.e. droughts or extreme rainfall events). Vulnerability in particular is likely to be behind the spatial patterns of increasing climate risk found in all these studies. As a result, all of these studies suggest that efforts to reduce climate risk should be targeted particularly to areas (and countries) in the north and north-east of the SADC region where vulnerabilities are highest."},{"index":4,"size":377,"text":"From the systematic review 60 papers were identified as meeting our criteria for Tanzania, with 10 having conducted research in medium high vulnerability and medium high climate hazard areas for both extreme rainfall events and drought (Figure 12 to Figure 15), including two in the hotspot identified in the plateau region in the south west of the country near lake Nyasa/Malawi (Kangalawe 2017;Luhunga 2017). Luhunga (2017) undertook an assessment of the impacts of climate change on maize yields in the southern highlands and plateau region of southern Tanzania. They used a climate crop model, using CORDEX-Africa climate models, to simulate maize yields under different future scenarios. They found that maize yields may decrease by up to 10% (under RCP8.5) in the hotspot region (Figure 15) due to increased temperatures and a shortening of the growing season caused by reductions in rainfall. Kangalawe (2017) conducted participatory rural assessments to understand perceptions of changing climate in Mbinga District, within the hotspot identified by our bivariate mapping (Figure 12 to Figure 15). Here, villagers report decreasing river flows and decreasing water availability for both agriculture and domestic purposes, in line with our hotspots for drought (Figure 14 and Figure 15). These reductions in available water have led to expansion of agriculture into wetland areas with subsequent losses of diversity, but also the shrinkage of wetland areas as river flows decrease and water use increases. A trebling of the population in this region (up to 120 people per square kilometers) indicates increasing exposure of the population to increasing drought. These findings are supported by Kassain et al. (2017) whose participatory research in the Iringa region also found perceptions of a decline in river flows over the last 20 years following declines in rainfall. This has led to impacts on water levels in irrigation channels, over-utilisation of available water, and reductions in yields. Both Kangalawe (2017) and Kassain et al. (2017) found that farmers were likely to implement measures such as deepening wells, expanding irrigation channels, or expanding agriculture into wetland areas that would be considered maladaptive. While some adaptation measures, such as tree planting for water conservation, are understood, they are not widely undertaken. There is a clear need for more work to understand, and implement, adaptation options in this region."},{"index":5,"size":193,"text":"In addition to research in the southern highlands and plateau region, research has been undertaken in the northern highlands, specifically on Mount Kilimanjaro in northern Tanzania. This area also falls under the medium high vulnerability and medium to medium high climate hazard. Here the focus is very much on coffee production, given the importance of these highlands to producing this important export crop. The work by Rahan et al. (2018) developed a coffee crop model, linked to climate and soils data, to understand the effect of changing climate on yields. They found that increasing temperatures and drought stress are likely to reduce yields by as much as 32%, although increased carbon dioxide concentrations may go some way towards mitigating this effect. Their work suggests that a common strategy of using shade plants may not be beneficial under conditions of water stress. In addition, Azrag et al. (2018) predicted the distribution of an important coffee pest, Antestiopsis thunbergii, under climate change on Mount Kilimanjaro. Their work suggests that the risks of pest infestation at lower elevations are likely to decrease under climate change, but would be offset by increased risks occurring at higher elevations."},{"index":6,"size":173,"text":"Finally, a set of 3 papers were identified by our systematic review covering the alluvial plans and semi-arid regions found in central Tanzania, an area of medium high vulnerability and medium to medium high climate hazards. Näschen et al. (2019) used the CORDEX-Africa climate models to examine the impact of climate change on water resources in the Kilombero region. They found increasing temperatures, and particularly intensification of the season with extreme flooding and drought, along with shifts in peak river flows will become more pronounced. Some farmers are already aware of changes to climate in the region, with rainfall becoming more unpredictable (Balama et al. 2016). Here, farmers are already implementing adaptation strategies through changes to planting calendars, uptake of agricultural technologies, crop diversification and the use of non-timber forest products to supplement incomes and household consumption. Osewe et al. (2020) have also found evidence of farmer led adaptation schemes, particularly farmer led irrigation schemes. However, more research is needed on these autonomous strategies to assess how robust and climate smart they are."}]},{"head":"4 Hotspot Case Studies","index":43,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":86,"text":"TANZANIA Only two of the 23 studies identified by our systematic literature review were carried out in the hotspots identified through the mapping of climate hazard and vulnerability outlined above. This suggests a possible mismatch between locations where climate risk is likely to be highest and where research on impacts of and adaptation to climate change is being conducted. Here we outline what we know from the research that has been undertaken in our hotspots, but also more broadly in the countries where the hotspots occur."}]},{"head":"UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA","index":44,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":70,"text":"Few studies meeting our criteria were retrieved from the literature search for Madagascar, and none were conducted in the areas identified as climate risk hotspots along the northern coast (Figure 12 to Figure 15). However, locations subject to medium-high vulnerability and rainfall or drought related hazards have received research attention. Eight studies in these locations explored local agricultural practices and related knowledge, and adaptation options to reduce climate-related production risks."},{"index":2,"size":281,"text":"The Lake Alaotra region in north eastern Madagascar currently experiences variable wet and dry episodes during the rainy season (Bruelle et al. 2017), and is at high risk of future extreme rainfall events, and moderately-highly vulnerable under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections (Figure 12 and Figure 13) Rain-fed rice production, which characterises and is expanding on the hillsides as a result of the increasing food needs of the growing local population, is highly susceptible to rainfall variability, and resulting water stress and impoverished soils (Bruelle et al. 2017;Penot et al. 2018). Research using simulated water × soil × rice interactions indicates the use of conservation agriculture (CA) in these areas mainly increased water loss because of drainage in the majority of conditions, and that crop growth was least affected when sown in November regardless of other interactions. Simulations and findings suggest mulching widened the favourable sowing window towards early dates, reduced associated risks by enhancing water capture and storage during the first erratic rains of the season, and increased crop yields (Bruelle et al. 2017). However, Penot et al. (2018), highlight high abandonment rates by upland rice farmers adopting CA in the same region over a 10-year period, partly because of difficulties implementing technologies including mulching, and perceived risk of crop failure, especially when disappointed by losses or yields early on. Abandonment was lower by those farming colluvial land because costs were often offset by yields. However, findings overall indicate >5-7 years of practice was needed for CA to persist. Despite high drop-out, the use of CA technologies was sustained by farmers fully convinced of their benefits, albeit in diversified forms reflecting innovation that tailored cropping systems to individual circumstances."},{"index":3,"size":216,"text":"Rainfall in Madagascar's mid-west is also erratic, with droughts alternating with intense rainfall events (Randrianjafizanaka et al. 2018), which are forecast to pose high future risk to moderately or highly vulnerable farming communities (Figure 12 and Figure 13). Here, rice-maize rotations predominate in upland areas on impoverished soils that attract weeds, including Striga asiatica, which suppress yields and increases labour demand. Randrianjafizanaka et al. (2018) present evidence that illustrates how different combinations of zero-tillage, intercropping and mulching CA strategies promoted as adaptations to soil and climatic constraints, can also delay and reduce (although not eradicate) the impact of S. asiatica parasitism in rice and maize crops, particularly when partially-resistant rice varieties are integrated into the system. Methods to assess accessibility of insurance to compensate for losses associated with climate hazards, have also been researched in this region. Focussing on rice cultivation, Möllmann et al. (2020) found that remotelysensed vegetation health indices provided considerably higher explanatory power for credit risk related to the variability of borrowers' yields, than indices derived from the more often used meteorological data which is scarce, and hence less reliable in regions like this. Lower credit risk, and thus predicted default rates, allow lending institutions to reduce interest rates, potentially enhancing farmers' access to the credit often critical for elevating and sustaining production."},{"index":4,"size":197,"text":"In the semi-arid south, maize composite varieties have been developed from local landraces to produce higher-yielding plants more tolerant of local climatic and agronomic conditions than the old landraces or obsolete hybrid varieties smallholder farmers often rely on (Masoni et al. 2020). The authors emphasise that maize has become Madagascar's second staple food in recent years, and highlight its potential contribution to future food security because it has lower water demand than rice. On the southeast coast, the high risk of extreme rain events in the future looms large for a potentially vulnerable farming community (Figure 12 and Figure 13) already prone to flooding and drought (Kruger 2016). During interviews and focus groups, farmers described early and late-planting, and using short-cycle cassava and yam varieties to increase resilience to hazards. In certain areas however, farmers have been unable to mitigate the lack of infrastructure to store water, and floods that destroy crops every year. In the southwest, drought is projected to be a greater hazard (Figure 14 and Figure 15), and conditions are already harsh. Very low amounts of rainfall on the Mahafaly plateau, and famine regularly affects those dependent on rain-fed production (Neudert et al. 2015)."},{"index":5,"size":143,"text":"Knowledge accumulated and transmitted locally related to climatic extremes and changing resource use is presented by Fritz-Vietta et al. (2017) to identify principles for inherent sustainable land management: management based on context specific values, socio-cultural norms, and the knowledge and perceptions of the local population, to enable future adaptation to environmental change. A different approach to facilitating adaptation to the dry and drying climate in the southeast is provided by Fust and Schlecht (2018), who developed a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate livestock production systems, with the objective of sustaining the economic and food security of livestock keepers faced with impoverished forage yields and variable pasture quality. The model integrates metabolic energy costs due to pastoral herd movements in search of forage, incorporates seasonal dynamics in forage quality in terms of feed digestibility, and relates forage availability and quality to climatic conditions."}]},{"head":"MADAGASCAR","index":45,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":2,"text":"MADAGASCAR https://bit.ly/SADCFuturesForesight"}]}],"figures":[{"text":" 17 "},{"text":"Figure 2 .Figure 2 .Figure 3 . Figure 2. Search, screening and coding process and results for the systematic literature review. "},{"text":" 22 "},{"text":"Figure 4 .Figure 5 .Figure 6 . Figure 4. Multi-model ensemble mean of change in frequency of 1-month droughts by mid-century in RCP8.5 (2031-2059). "},{"text":"23Figure 9 .Figure 10 .Figure 11 .Figure 12 . 25 Figure 13 . 25 Figure 14 .Figure 15 . Figure 9. Multi-model ensemble mean 95th percentile of rainfall (R95) by mid-century in RCP4.5 (2031-2059). "},{"text":"Figure 2 . Figure 2. Search, screening and coding process and results for the systematic literature review. Numbers refer to the number of papers.* In 2020, articles were only retrieved for January-April. Coding sub-categories are not mutually exclusive. Articles can occur in multiple sub-categories. "},{"text":"Figure 3 . Figure 3. Multi-model ensemble mean of change in frequency of 1-month droughts by mid-century in RCP4.5 (2031-2059), as compared to the historical time period (1971-1999). Drought change of greater than 1 only shown in shading. Overlaid on vulnerability map where red = more vulnerable, blue = less vulnerable. "},{"text":"Figure 5 . Figure 5. Multi-model ensemble mean 1-month droughts (SPEI <= -1) in midcentury in RCP4.5 (2031-2059). Overlaid on vulnerability map where red = more vulnerable, blue = less vulnerable. "},{"text":"Figure 4 . Figure 4. Multi-model ensemble mean of change in frequency of 1-month droughts by mid-century in RCP8.5 (2031-2059), as compared to the historical time period (1971-1999). Drought change of greater than 1 only shown in shading. Overlaid on vulnerability map where red = more vulnerable, blue = less vulnerable. "},{"text":"Figure 6 . Figure 6. Multi-model ensemble mean 1-month droughts in mid-century in RCP8.5 (2031-2059). SPEI <= -1 used to indicated droughts, and SPEI <= -2 indicates severe droughts. Overlaid on vulnerability map where red = more vulnerable, blue = less vulnerable. "},{"text":"Figure 7 . Figure 7. Multi-model ensemble mean of change in 95th percentile of rainfall (R95) by mid-century in RCP4.5 (2031-2059), as compared to the historical time period. Overlaid on vulnerability map where red = more vulnerable, blue = less vulnerable. "},{"text":"Figure 9 . Figure 9. Multi-model ensemble mean 95th percentile of rainfall (R95) by midcentury in RCP4.5 (2031-2059). Overlaid on vulnerability map where red = more vulnerable, blue = less vulnerable. "},{"text":"Figure 8 . Figure 8. Multi-model ensemble mean of change in 95th percentile of rainfall (R95) by mid-century in RCP8.5 (2031-2059), as compared to the historical time period. Overlaid on vulnerability map where red = more vulnerable, blue = less vulnerable. "},{"text":"Figure 10 . Figure 10. Multi-model ensemble mean 95th percentile of rainfall (R95) by midcentury in RCP8.5 (2031-2059). Overlaid on vulnerability map where red = more vulnerable, blue = less vulnerable. "},{"text":"Figure 11 . Figure 11. Vulnerability status of districts and countries (inset) across the SADC region. Quartiles represent the combined (10 indicators) relative vulnerability levels, whereby quartile 1 (red) = more vulnerable, quartile 4 (blue) = less vulnerable. "},{"text":"Figure 13 . Figure 13. Bivariate map showing hotspots of vulnerability to and risk of extreme rainfall within the districts of each SADC region for the RCP8.5 scenario. The first number within each matrix colour represents the normalised and rounded mean vulnerability value for the district, with the second number representing the rounded climate hazard value (i.e. 34 equates to 'medium low vulnerability', 'low climate hazard). "},{"text":"Figure 15 . Figure 15. Bivariate map showing the vulnerability and risk of extreme drought within the districts of each SADC region for the RCP8.5 scenario. The first number within each matrix colour represents the normalised and rounded mean vulnerability value for the district, with the second number representing the rounded climate hazard value (i.e. 34 equates to 'medium low vulnerability', 'low climate hazard). "},{"text":"Figure 14 . Figure 14. Bivariate map showing hotspots of vulnerability to and risk of extreme drought within the districts of each SADC region for the RCP4.5 scenario. The first number within each matrix colour represents the normalised and rounded mean vulnerability value for the district, with the second number representing the rounded climate hazard value (i.e. 34 equates to 'medium low vulnerability', 'low climate hazard). "},{"text":" In their study mapping climate risk hotspots, Midgley et al (2011) used an earlier IPCC vulnerability model compared to the one used in this study, where vulnerability is a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. They developed a set of 11 exposure indicators for current (rainfall variation, risk of cyclones, fires, etc) and future (using GCMs) climate. Their 16 sensitivity indicators included land under irrigation, soil moisture and net primary productivity and their 19 adaptive capacity indicators included measures of conflict, contribution of agriculture to GDP, governance and education. They used a weighted overlay method to identify hotspots of vulnerability in northern and central Tanzania, Madagascar, south and central Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe and Zambia, south and central Angola, and south and west DRC.The work by Herding for Health (2020) focused on rangelands, used the same IPCC climate risk model as this study. They used both observed data, future indices and GCMs to map climate hazards including aridity, heatwaves, deforestation and land degradation. Their six vulnerability indicators included measures of access to markets, gender and the Human Development Index (including education, income and health), while their exposure index included measures of population density and the distribution of rangelands. The indices of hazard, vulnerability and exposure were equally weighted in a combined index of climate risk. Hotspots of climate risk were identified in Zambia and Mozambique. "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":" DeSherbinin et al. (2019)  identify four key limitations in many climate vulnerability/risk mapping exercises: a lack of future projections, data availability, uncertainty and policy relevance. We have used climate models from CORDEX-Africa to create climate hazard maps, and so our climate risk mapping does consider future climate projections. However, our vulnerability index is based on current/recent data and is not projected into the future. Projections of future vulnerability are a critical limitation in studies of this kind, but were beyond the scope of this study.  Net loss Net loss In this rapid assessment the climate risk assessment has been carried out for the SADC region, with the goal of identifying climate risk hotspots. Where possible the data is at district/county scale or disaggregated to that level. A total of 10 socio-ecological indicators have been selected as measures of vulnerability to overall in agricultural potential in SSA In this rapid assessment the climate risk assessment has been carried out for the SADC region, with the goal of identifying climate risk hotspots. Where possible the data is at district/county scale or disaggregated to that level. A total of 10 socio-ecological indicators have been selected as measures of vulnerability tooverall in agricultural potential in SSA natural hazards, and combined, equally weighted, into a single  natural hazards, and combined, equally weighted, into a single  "},{"text":"02 Approach The SADC region is currently adversely affected by several climate hazards, including heatwaves, unpredictable rainfall, strong winds, drought and extreme rainfall However, it can, in conjunction with other studies at country, region and global scale, contribute to discussions about and planning for climate impacts in the SADC region. 14   14 A recent systematic review of 84   A recent systematic review of 84 studies mapping vulnerability to   studies mapping vulnerability to climate risks (de Sherbinin et al.   climate risks (de Sherbinin et al. 2019) identifies key considerations   2019) identifies key considerations in producing maps for climate risk   in producing maps for climate risk assessment: Introduction to climate hazards   assessment: Introduction to climate hazards a.   a. b.   b. c.   c. d.   d. e.   e. f.   f. g.   g. Magnitude Extent Rate of change MagnitudeExtentRate of change  "},{"text":"Table 2 . Vulnerability indicators identified and used in the analysis (adapted fromThornton et al. 2008). No data available for Botswana, Mauritius and the Seychelles. No data available for Botswana, Mauritius and the Seychelles. All MPI data (for health (MPI-1), education (MPI-2) and standard of living All MPI data (for health (MPI-1), education (MPI-2) and standard of living  "}],"sieverID":"34d7da4f-874d-4c5e-97da-9c06df82a3b4","abstract":"In these highly uncertain and rapidly changing times, the SADC region, like many regions in Africa, remains fundamentally dependent on a resilient agricultural system and natural resource base. Climate change still poses the greatest threat to the agricultural system and therefore technical capacity is needed to address these future impacts and adapt plans, policies and programs. Taking into account alternative futures, the SADC Futures project has produced tailored supporting materials and documents as part of a wider approach for foresight training in the region. These documents and the associated foresight framework aim to equip users to practically apply the range of foresight tools and methods for innovative strategic planning and policy formulation for climate resilience."}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"071ce44f4a6c03e596913903f8278bc0","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/92b2d9c2-aafe-4449-9acf-f280f9ea79ee/retrieve"},"pageCount":11,"title":"Land fragmentation, agricultural productivity and implications for agricultural investments in the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) region, Tanzania","keywords":["Ihemi cluster","land fragmentation","land consolidation","agricultural productivity; agricultural investment"],"chapters":[{"head":"INTRODUCTION","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":62,"text":"Land fragmentation, also known as pulverization, parcellization or scattering (Bentley, 1987), is defined in the literature as the situation in which a single farm consists of numerous spatially separated parcels (Binns, 1950;King and Burton, 1982;McPherson, 1982;Van Dijk, 2003). It is characterised as a fundamental rural spatial problem concerned with farms which are poorly organised at locations across space (King and Burton, 1982)."},{"index":2,"size":106,"text":"Four types of land fragmentation are distinguished in the literature: fragmentation of land ownership; land use; within a farm (or internal fragmentation); and separation of ownership and use (Van Dijk 2003;Van Dijk, 2004). Fragmentation of land ownership refers to the number of landowners who use a given piece of land. Fragmentation of land use refers to the number of users that are also tenants of the land. Internal fragmentation emphasizes the number of parcels exploited by each user and considers parcel size, shape and distance as the main issues. Separation of ownership and use involves the situation where there is a discrepancy between ownership and use."},{"index":3,"size":58,"text":"Past studies and substantial literature have examined the relationship between land fragmentation, on the one hand, and land productivity, or efficiency at farm level, on the other (Blarel et al., 1992;Bizimana et al., 2004;Wu et al., 2005;Van Hung et al., 2007;Thomas, 2007;Rahman and Rahman, 2008;Chen et al., 2009;Corral et al., 2011, Austin et al., 2012;Sauer et al., 2012)."},{"index":4,"size":203,"text":"There are contradictory considerations regarding whether land fragmentation is a problem or not (Sklenicka, 2016;Sklenicka et al., 2014;Wu et al., 2005;Nguyen et al., 1996). Firstly, there is a viewpoint that sees land fragmentation as the source of ineffective agriculture (Sklenicka et al., 2014;Apata et al., 2014;Latruffe and Piet, 2014;Corral et al., 2011;Di Falco et al., 2010;Rahman and Rahman, 2008;Van Hung et al., 2007;Bentley, 1987). This viewpoint considers land fragmentation as a major threat to efficient production system due to the fact that continuous subdivision of farms would lead to small sized land holdings that may be hard to economically operates. According to this viewpoint, land fragmentation is said to harm productivity in a number of ways: fragmented land holdings can increase transport costs. If the plots are located far from home, and far from each other, there is a waste of time for the workers spent on travelling inbetween the plots and home. Management, supervision and securing of scattered plots can also be more difficult, time consuming, and costly. Small and scattered plots waste land area and require more land for fencing, border constructions, and paths and roads. Land fragmentation might also increase the risk of disputes between neighbours (Mwebaza and Gaynor, 2002)."},{"index":5,"size":57,"text":"Small fragmented land holdings might also cause difficulties to grow certain crops, and prevent farmers from changing to high profit crops. More profitable crops, like for example fruit crops, require larger plot areas, so if the farmers only possess small and fragmented plots they may be forced to grow only less profitable crops (The World Bank, 2005)."},{"index":6,"size":167,"text":"Other costs associated with land fragmentation include the hindering of economies of scale and farm mechanization. Small and scattered plots hamper the use of machinery and other large scale agricultural practices. In small fields operating machines and moving them from one field to another can cause problems. Small land holdings might also discourage the development of infrastructure like transportation, communication, irrigation, and drainage (Mwebaza and Gaynor, 2002). Finally it is noticed that banks are sometimes unwilling to take small, scattered land holdings as collateral, which prevents farmers from obtaining credit to make investments (ibid). In view of these disadvantages, land fragmentation is thus considered as defective and this has in turn caused several countries to implement land consolidation programs (Sundqvist and Andersson, 2006;Van Hung et al., 2006;The World Bank, 2005). Along the same line Sklenicka (2016) recommends corrective policies in countries with high fragmentation to focus on three different levels: identifying the causes of fragmentation (slowing the process), decreasing current fragmentation (defragmenting ownership), and remedying the effects."},{"index":7,"size":142,"text":"The counter viewpoint sees land fragmentation as a positive situation under which farmers can cultivate many environmental zones, minimise production risk and optimise the schedule for cropping activities (Bentley, 1987). The recognized advantages of land fragmentation in this perspective are closely related to the demand-side causes of fragmentation. One of the benefits associated with land fragmentation is the variety of soil and growing conditions that reduce the risk of total crop failure by giving the farmer a variety of soil and growing conditions. Many different plots allow farmers access to land of different qualities when it comes to soil, slope, microclimatic variations etc. Fields with high yields one year may the following year generate much lower yields, thus several plots of the same crop also spreads out the risk. In addition, a holding with several plots facilitates crop *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]."},{"index":8,"size":31,"text":"Author(s) agree that this article remain permanently open access under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 International License rotation and the ability to leave some land fallow (ibid)."},{"index":9,"size":80,"text":"Another benefit of land fragmentation is the use of multiple eco zones. Different plots enable farmers to grow a wider mix of crops. Since crops ripe at different times when the plots are in different altitudes, spreading out the agriculture work like harvest and sawing during a longer period of time helps farmers to avoid household labour bottlenecks. This is especially important when the growing season of the crop is short and easily creates seasons of peak labour demand (ibid)."},{"index":10,"size":110,"text":"Farmers may also prefer fragmented land holdings when there are diseconomies of scale with respect to the size of the parcels. This phenomenon might be a result of labour market failure. The farmers might be unable to gather enough labour to meet seasonal peaks on large parcels (ibid). Labour market failure, that is, the lack of off-farm job opportunities, can also result in a large amount of unproductive family members working on the farm due to their low opportunity cost. The resulting high ratio in labour to land makes the productivity per acre of land high. This could be an explanation of the existence of diseconomies of scale (Heltberg, 1998)."},{"index":11,"size":93,"text":"This paper evaluates the impact of land fragmentation on crop productivity in Ihemi cluster of the SAGCOT area in Tanzania using data which were collected during the baseline survey conducted by the LiFELand (Laying the Foundations for Effective Landscape-level Planning for Sustainable Development in the SAGCOT Corridor) project, which runs from April 2015 to December 2017. Funded by the CGIAR/International Water Management Institute (IWMI) Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystem, the project promotes and facilitates the adoption of sustainable intensification in the Ihemi cluster through provision of robust, evidence-driven processes and strategies."}]},{"head":"The study area","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":227,"text":"The study was conducted in Ihemi Cluster which is located in the eastern-most part of the Southern Highlands of Tanzania. This together with other six clusters (that is, Ihemi, Kilombero, Sumbawanga, Mbarali, Rufiji, and Ludewa clusters), were identified under the SAGCOT initiative as especially ripe for agricultural investment. The initiative was launched by the Government of Tanzania (GoT) in 2010 as a Public Private Partnership (PPP) dedicated to ensuring food security, reducing poverty, and spurring economic development in the southern part of the country. The corridor stretches from the Indian Ocean to the Zambian border covering a total area of about 300,000 km 2 (approximately one third of total area of Tanzania Mainland) (AGG Team, 2012). The region has considerable agricultural potential which is underutilized and characterized by low productivity, low levels of investment, and high rates of poverty. To release the region's potential, the SAGCOT initiative seeks to attract more than US $3 billion of investment to dramatically increase food production, increase annual farming revenues by more than US $1.2 billion, benefit smallscale farmers and the rural poor, and establish the southern part of Tanzania as a regional food exporter. It will do so by concentrating and linking agricultural investment from the public sector, development partners, and Tanzanian and international investors to kick startǁ the region's latent potential for highly productive agriculture and efficient value chains."},{"index":2,"size":102,"text":"In particular, the Ihemi cluster falls in two regions namely Iringa and Njombe [located between latitudes 6°30' and 11°0' south of the Equator and longitudes 33°30' and 37°0' east of the Greenwich (Figure 1)]. The Iringa region shares borders with Singida and Dodoma regions (towards the north); Morogoro region (eastwards), Mbeya region (westwards) and Njombe region (southwards). Iringa region covers a total area of 35,743 km 2 out of which 2,704.2 km 2 (7.6%) is covered by water bodies of Mtera Dam, the Little and Great Ruaha Rivers. The remaining area (33,038.8 km 2) is land area (Iringa Regional Commissioner's Office, 2013)."},{"index":3,"size":74,"text":"The Njombe Region borders Iringa Region in the North, Morogoro Region in the East and Ruvuma region in the South. It also shares borders with the Republic of Malawi via Lake Nyasa and part of Mbeya Region in the North-West and West. The Region has the total surface area of 24,994 km 2 out of which 21,172 km 2 is covered by land (84.7%) and 3,822 km 2 is covered by water (15.3%) (ibid)."}]},{"head":"STUDY APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY","index":3,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Sampling procedure and data collection","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":65,"text":"The study districts, wards and villages were purposefully selected based on their location along the cluster landscape, suitability as an average unit for socioeconomic analysis and potential for agricultural investment. A total of five districts were selected, two from Njombe and three from Iringa Region. The sample villages in each of the five sample districts and the respective sample sizes are presented in Table 1."},{"index":2,"size":60,"text":"Prior to the selection of sample households and commencement of questionnaire survey, a range of Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) methods, including Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), Key Informants Interviews and Wealth ranking were conducted as a footing step to the study. These helped to identify wealth groups and socio-economic landscapes that acted as the sampling frame for a stratified random sample."},{"index":3,"size":82,"text":"The wealth ranking exercise was conducted in all the twenty sample villages and at least 10% of the total households were chosen in each village (from the village registers) in order to provide a logistically feasible sampling frame. The wealth ranking exercise eventually resulted in identification of three wealth groups (\"rich\" \"medium\", and \"poor\"). Prior to the wealth ranking exercise the participants were asked to list the indicators of wealth which were then used to rank every household in the sample villages."},{"index":4,"size":42,"text":"The \"rich\" households were relatively a small group, covering only about 11% of the total households. They were food secure all year round and had a fairly secure livelihood base. The \"medium\" wealth class constituted about 40% of the households, with a  "}]},{"head":"Data analysis","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":67,"text":"Data gathered using FGDs, key informants and audio recorded interviews were transcribed and organised into discussion topics. A content analysis of transcribed data was then carried out using Excel spreadsheet. The data were first sorted into themes and later patterns were generated across themes to show the relationships across key issues such as farm/parcel sizes, soil and water conservation practices, and income sources just to mention few."},{"index":2,"size":76,"text":"The questionnaire for household survey was pre-coded prior to actual data collection. The open ended questions were coded and generated during the compilation of responses to ensure consistence in the use of codes for open ended questions. A coded template was designed in SPSS and the information contained in the questionnaire was transferred into the software for data analysis. Data cleaning was performed to ensure that data values are complete, accurate correct and free from outliers."},{"index":3,"size":89,"text":"The analysis of data entailed mainly the production of descriptive statistics such as means, standard deviation, analysis of variance, and t-tests. In addition, a linear regression analysis was used to assess the effects of land fragmentation on productivity. The study assumed a linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. Land fragmentation was analysed using a combination of measures including the size and number of parcels, average distance to parcels and the Simpson index. These measures and the alternative approaches to assess farm fragmentation are presented in the next section."}]},{"head":"Measures of land fragmentation","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":49,"text":"Land fragmentation is a spatial phenomenon which depends on many parameters. King and Burton (1982) cite the following six relevant factors: Holding size; number of parcels belonging to the holding; size of each parcel; shape of each parcel; the spatial distribution of parcels; and the size distribution of parcels."},{"index":2,"size":167,"text":"Most authors who tried to measure fragmentation have used a simple average of the number of parcels per holding (either regional or national), an average of holding size and an average of parcel size. Some other authors developed more complicated descriptors. In particular, Edwards (1961) calculated a fragmentation index as the percentage of a holding's land which is not adjacent to the farmstead. In addition, Simmons (1964) proposed a land fragmentation index which took into account the number of parcels in a holding and the relative size of each parcel. The formula for Simmons's land fragmentation index is as follows: Where FI is the fragmentation index, n is the number of parcels belonging to a holding, a is the size of a parcel and A is the total holding size. An FI value of 1 means that a holding consists of only one parcel and values closer to zero mean higher fragmentation. The Simmons index becomes the Simpson index if it is subtracted from 1 (Shuhao, 2005)."},{"index":3,"size":82,"text":"Furthermore, Dovring (1965) computed fragmentation by measuring the distance which a farmer would have to travel to reach each of his parcels, returning back to his farmstead after each visit although it ignores the number of actual visits per year and the potential that any parcel could be visited without returning back to the farmstead. Moreover, Januszewski (1968) developed a similar fragmentation index to Simmons, combining the number of parcels per holding and their size distribution into a K index as follows:"},{"index":4,"size":1,"text":"... "},{"index":5,"size":312,"text":"Where n is the number of parcels and a is the parcel size. The K values range from 0 to 1. As values tend to zero, K indicates a high degree of fragmentation. This index has three main properties: the degree of fragmentation increases proportionally with the number of parcels; fragmentation increases when the range of parcel sizes is small and fragmentation decreases as the area of large parcels increases and that of small parcels decreases. Blarel et al. (1992) note that Januszewski and Simmons indices are the most popular. Igozurike (1974) suggested a 'relative index of land parcellization'. In contrast to the above indexes, this measure is based on the average size of the parcels and the distance travelled by a farmer to visit all his parcels sequentially (that is, in one round trip). This index is given by the following equation: Where Pi is the fragmentation (or parcellization) index of holding i, Ṡi is the size of each parcel and Dt is the total round-trip distance covering all parcels. King and Burton (1982) criticized this index because distance has not been clearly defined by the researcher and is overemphasized, without taking into account the number of parcels. An example is quoted based on a holding with two parcels with size Ṡi and a distance of 10 km apart, which would give a Pi twice as high as a holding with 10 parcels of size S, each 1 km from its neighbours. Schmook (1976) defined a fragmentation index called P0, which is the ratio between the area of a polygon which circumscribes all the parcels of a holding, to the area of that holding. Values of this index are always above 1; a high P0 value indicates intense fragmentation. Schmook (1976) also suggested another fragmentation coefficient which is calculated by dividing the average distance to parcels by the mean parcel size."},{"index":6,"size":79,"text":"This study employed a mixture of measures of fragmentation including the size and number of parcels, average distance to parcels and the Simpson index. The latter is widely used because it is sensitive to both size of parcels and number of parcels. The Simpson index can arithmetically be defined as (Equation 4): Where, SI = the Simpson index; i A = the area of the ith plot; A = J 1 j i A = the total farm area."},{"index":7,"size":26,"text":"A value of zero indicates complete land consolidation (one parcel only), while the value of one is approached by holdings of numerous parcels of equal size."},{"index":8,"size":98,"text":"To examine the impact of land fragmentation on productivity a two stage least squares (2SLS) analysis was used. The 2SLS procedure was purposefully used in order to tackle the problem of \"misspecification\" of variables. Three models were formulated (Equations 5 to 7). These were basically of the same nature but differentiated by either excluding both the observed and predicted values for average distance to parcels (T and Tp), or including only one of them. In other words, equation 5 served as a control model by which the evaluation of explanatory powers in Equations 6 and 7 was facilitated."},{"index":9,"size":2,"text":".......( 5 "}]},{"head":"S) , L C, f(G, X a 6","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":97,"text":"Where: a Y = crop productivity; T = average distance from homestead to parcels; E = number of parcels; L = household labour equivalent; G = age of head of household; S = sex of head of household; C = education level head of household; D = regional dummy; p E = predicted values for number of parcels; p T = predicted values for average distance to parcels The implicit assumption underlying the formulation was that the models were correctly specified in the first place. A number of OLS formulations were tried before adopting the 2SLS model."}]},{"head":"RESULTS AND DISCUSSION","index":8,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Parcel sizes and land fragmentation","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":46,"text":"Generally, crop parcels are very small -60% to about 86% had sizes ranging from 0.25 to 2 acres (Figure 2) compared to average farm size in Africa of 2.5 ha; North America (121 ha), Latin America (67 ha) and Europe (27 ha) (Kanu et al., 2014)."},{"index":2,"size":121,"text":"The results of analysis of land dispersion using the Simpsom Index (SI) and number of parcels (Table 2 and Figure 3) as well as the average time spent by farmers to walk from their homesteads to parcels (Figure 4) suggest high levels of land fragmentation for both the two regions and districts of Ihemi cluster. Relatively however, the land holdings were more fragmented in Njombe region than in Iringa region. This can partly be explained by the difference in relative per capita land size between the two regions, which supports the argument that fragmentation is a supply driven factor. On average our results showed relatively smaller per capita cropland for Njombe region (0.16 acres/person) than Iringa region (0.21 acres per person)."},{"index":3,"size":62,"text":"Although the median number of parcels (Table 1) was the same for both regions (3.0), the median value of the Simpson Index was greater for Njombe region (0.7) compared to that of Iringa (0.6) and the difference was significant at P < 0.01. In Njombe region, about 20% of farmers operated four or more parcels, whereas for Iringa it was only 16.9%."},{"index":4,"size":104,"text":"Most parcels were located at distances of 1 km 2 and more from homestead (Figure 4). The correlation between Simpson Index and the average distance to parcels was -0.281, and this relation was significant at 0.01 level. The t-test results on both the mean number of parcels and the Simpson Index supported the assertion that land consolidation increased with land scarcity and market access. Land consolidation was relatively higher in Iringa than Njombe district at P < 0.01 with t-values equal to 3.08 and 3.28 respectively. In this test, fragmentation (Simpson Index or number of parcels) was used as the inverse measure of consolidation."},{"index":5,"size":106,"text":"It is important to note that the disparity in land fragmentation between farmers in the two regions of Ihemi cluster (Iringa and Njombe) was not necessarily an outcome of only supply driven factors (higher population density in this case) or demand drive factors. The disparity seemed not to originate purely from constraints in land acquisition or from limited choice of parcel location. A number of both side supply -and demand driven factors seemed to interact together to define the prevailing levels of fragmentation. We evaluate and discuss some of these factors in our analysis of the effects of land fragmentation on productivity in the next subsection."}]},{"head":"Land fragmentation and productivity","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":97,"text":"The regression results for the three models specified in the analysis (Equations 5 to 7) are summarized in Tables 2 to 4, respectively. In Tables 2 and 3, only age of the head of household, labour equivalents per hectare, and regional dummies were statistically strongly significant. The rest of predictors were non-significant. In Table 4 however, only two predictors remained consistently nonsignificant (education level and sex of head of household). The predicted values for the number of parcels were significant at P < 0.05, and the rest were all significant at P < 0.01 level, as expected."},{"index":2,"size":209,"text":"The regression results for Equation 7 (Table 4) show that fragmentation has a positive impact on land productivity (crop yield) when predicted values ( p T ) are used instead of observed values of average distance to parcels ( T ). When both these values are excluded (Table 2), and when only observed values of average  distances to parcels are includedan approach which is considered to ignore the effects of variables specified as exogenous (Table 3), the results support a contrary explanation: that is, fragmentation has a negative impact on land productivity. When subjected to correlation coefficient test (in isolation) the observed values of number of parcels correlated negatively with observed values of land productivity (r = -0.269) at 0.05 significant level. The correlation coefficient between predicted values of number of parcels and observed values of land productivity was also negative (-0.269) and significant at 0.01 level. In addition, many smaller parcels were generally close to homesteads in Njombe region (Figure 4), whereas, only few, larger parcels were far away from houses in Iringa region (Iringa, Kilolo and Mufindi district councils in the same figure). This would support Fenoaltea (1976)'s and Blarel et al. (1992)'s argument that, greater fragmentation does not necessarily result in greater average distances for farmers."},{"index":3,"size":103,"text":"It is important to note that these results make a deceptive but interesting point which tends to be overlooked frequently in the analysis. The point is that analyzing the factors hypothesized as affecting land productivity in isolation rather than in an integrated or comprehensive manner may be too hypocritical to draw any tangible conclusion. The opposite appears to be an appropriate approach, particularly when one evaluates the causes and persistence of land fragmentation prevailing in most smallholder production systems in developing countries. Several socioeconomic factors are interlinked together and are more likely to have a combined, rather than separable, effect on land productivity."},{"index":4,"size":51,"text":"The positive impact that the average distance to parcels has revealed on land productivity can partly be explained by the fact that distant parcels are comparatively the more currently cleared or developed ones. It therefore becomes logical when one considers them as less suffered from continuous cultivation and hence less degraded."}]},{"head":"Implication for agricultural investment in the SAGCOT","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":237,"text":"The findings presented and discussed in the foregoing subsection raise particular questions regarding the future of smallholder landholdings as agricultural investments expand in the SAGCOT region. These include among others the following two key questions: (a) Will the agricultural landholdings become more fragmented or more consolidated? (b) What will be the likely impact on access to land and productivity as well as welfare of smallholder farmers at large? Obviously, we expect several chunks of land owned by rich farmers and investors to sprout which is more likely to result in increased consolidation of the agricultural land in the cluster. However, the landholdings for smallholder farmers will become more fragmented as poor smallholder farmers are increasingly selling their small Wanging'ombe (N=120)   Climate change and lack of funds to purchase inputs will also continue to impact negatively the agricultural productivity of smallholder farmers. Frequent droughts and crop losses resulting in unreliable rainfall rainfall increasingly force smallholder farmers to cultivate crops on fragile lands like the bottom valleys (vinyungu farming) leading to degradation of existing water sources in the SAGCOT region. Releasing the region's potential will require that these issues are appropriately addressed and smallholder farmers are helped to secure adequate and suitable landholdings for farming, raise agricultural productivity, diversify their sources of income to reduce overreliance on crop production, and adopt good agricultural practices. This has to be achieved by promoting strong investor -farmer synergies for inclusive agricultural growth."}]},{"head":"Wanging'ombe","index":12,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":102,"text":"There are already some good examples of investorfarmer engagement emerging in the region. The Rutuba farm for example undertakes training of farmers in good agricultural practices through the Clinton Foundation Program at Gongwa area. Early lessons from this model suggest that small farmers can triple their yields if helped to intensify their agricultural practices (personal conversation with the management of the farm). Smallholder farmers in the SAGCOT region can harvest more crops per unit area provided that they are helped to access right seeds at the right time, own good storage facilities, given the right education and assisted to access competitive markets."},{"index":2,"size":80,"text":"Another example in the region is the Silverlands' model of agri-intensification. Silverlands is a private company which has invested in a big poultry project at Ihemi village that produces three poultry breeds namely the Highland brown, Cobb 500, Sasso -French bird breeds. The company has a hatchery unit and produces vegetarian and high quality; scientifically formulated poultry feeds and buys crops (maize, soybeans and sunflower) from smallholder farmers in the cluster and in other areas outside Iringa and Njombe regions."},{"index":3,"size":81,"text":"The company normally buys the produce through NGOs who work for the interest of small-scale farmers by so doing bypassing the middlemen node and shortening the value chain or marketing channels of these crops. The company was also piloting a selling mall for poultry products and had selling points in different parts of the country notably the Southern Highlands, Morogoro, Dodoma, and Dar es Salaam regions. In addition the company has established a poultry training college for farmers and other entrepreneurs."}]},{"head":"Conclusions","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":70,"text":"Land holdings in Ihemi cluster were generally highly fragmented. The pattern of dispersion is however contrary to the explanation given by many analysts of the causes of land fragmentation attributing it to supply driven factors. The population density in Iringa region was relatively higher (174 people per ha) than in Njombe (145 people per ha) yet the land holdings in the latter region were more fragmented than in the former."},{"index":2,"size":43,"text":"In addition, land fragmentation was declining with farm size, and parcels located closer to homestead were more fragmented than the ones located far. It was increasing with land scarcity. The results in this study show a positive relation between land fragmentation and productivity."},{"index":3,"size":84,"text":"We draw the following key lessons from the study of land fragmentation in the Ihemi cluster of SAGCOT: (a) Land fragmentation should not be considered as undesirable; b) it should also not be viewed as purely originating from, and/or made persistent by the influences of only a single type of factor (e.g. population densitya supply side factor) but a result of interaction between both the supplyand demanddriven factors. Which type dominates the other will depend on the farming environment prevailing in a specific area."}]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 1 . Figure 1. Map of Tanzania showing the location of Ihemi cluster and SAGCOT region. "},{"text":" .. .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... "},{"text":"( ........  ..........  ..........  ..........  ..........    "},{"text":"Figure 2 . Figure 2. Parcel sizes (acres). "},{"text":"Table 2 .Figure 3 . Figure 3. Land ownership by number of parcels. "},{"text":"Figure 4 . Figure 4. Distance to crop parcels (km). "},{"text":"Table 1 . Levels of fragmentation of operated land in the two regions of Ihemi cluster, 2014/15 (%). base of assets to draw on, but the majority of the households in this class were still food secure all year round. The \"poor\" households constituted about half of the total households (49%). In total, 607 households were interviewed in twenty villages from five study districts namely Iringa, Kilolo and Mufindi district councils (in Iringa region) as well as Njombe and Wanging'ombe district councils (in Njombe region). Measure of dispersion Iringa Region Njombe Total Measure of dispersionIringaRegionNjombeTotal Simpson index     Simpson index 0.0 -0.5 35.6  11.1 23.3 0.0 -0.535.611.123.3 0.5 -0.7 64.4  77.8 71.1 0.5 -0.764.477.871.1 Over 0.7 0.0  11.1 5.6 Over 0.70.011.15.6 Mean* 0.6  0.7 0.6 Mean*0.60.70.6 Median* 0.6  0.7 0.6 Median*0.60.70.6 Number of parcels     Number of parcels 0 6.3  3 4.7 06.334.7 1 19  20 19.5 1192019.5 2 32.7  34 33.3 232.73433.3 3 28  26.5 27.3 32826.527.3 4 8.3  10.5 9.4 48.310.59.4 5 3.7  4.5 4.1 53.74.54.1 6 and above 2  1.5 1.8 6 and above21.51.8 Mean* 2.9  3.5 3.2 Mean*2.93.53.2 Median* 3.0  3.0 3.0 Median*3.03.03.0  "},{"text":" ) .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Y a f(E p , X 6 , D) (5) Y af(E p,X6,D)(5) Y a f(E p T, , X 6 , ...(6) .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... D) (6) Y af(E pT, ,X6,...(6) .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... D) (6) Y a f(E p T , p , X 6 , ...(7) .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... D) (7) Y af(E pT , p,X6,...(7) .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... D) (7)  "},{"text":"Table 3 . Regression results of second stage -2SLS with T variable included in the fragmentation-productivity model. Term  Coef. StDev T P TermCoef.StDevTP Constant 64574.0 67751.0 0.95 0.343 Constant64574.067751.00.950.343 Ep  -8257.0 9448.0 -0.87 0.385 Ep-8257.09448.0-0.870.385 T   1277.0 2154.0 0.59 0.555 T1277.02154.00.590.555 Age of head of household 2776.1 735.6 3.77 0.000*** Age of head of household2776.1735.63.770.000*** Education level of head of household 2186.0 2043.0 1.07 0.288 Education level of head of household2186.02043.01.070.288 Labour equivalent/Ha -70769.0 15272.0 -4.63 0.000*** Labour equivalent/Ha-70769.015272.0-4.630.000*** Sex: 1 -3610.0 10098.0 -0.36 0.722 Sex: 1-3610.010098.0-0.360.722 Region: 0 29645.0 7607.0 3.90 0.000*** Region: 029645.07607.03.900.000*** S   64921  S64921 R 2  43.5%  R243.5% Adj R 2 38.7%  Adj R238.7% F   9.03  F9.03 P   0.000***  P0.000***  "},{"text":"Table 4 . Regression results of second stage -2SLS with Tp variable included in the fragmentation-productivity model. Term  Coef. StDev T P TermCoef.StDevTP Constant -797431 297087 -2.68 0.009*** Constant-797431297087-2.680.009*** Ep  79580 30881 2.58 0.012** Ep79580308812.580.012** Tp  47404 15653 3.03 0.003*** Tp47404156533.030.003*** Age of head of household 2666.1 699.8 3.81 0.000*** Age of head of household2666.1699.83.810.000*** Education level of head of household -826 2189 -0.38 0.707 Education level of head of household-8262189-0.380.707 Labour Equivalent/Ha -75835 14497 -5.23 0.000*** Labour Equivalent/Ha-7583514497-5.230.000*** Sex: 1 -5658 9622 -0.59 0.558 Sex: 1-56589622-0.590.558 Region: 0 26542 7304 3.63 0.000*** Region: 02654273043.630.000*** S   61701  S61701 R 2  49.0%  R249.0% Adj R 2 44.6%  Adj R244.6% F   11.25  F11.25 P   0.000***  P0.000*** Ep = predicted values of number of parcels; Tp = predicted values of distance to parcels; *** = significant at 0.01 per cent level;** = significant at Ep = predicted values of number of parcels; Tp = predicted values of distance to parcels; *** = significant at 0.01 per cent level;** = significant at 0.05% level   0.05% level parcels to rich farmers and investors. This trend is likely  parcels to rich farmers and investors. This trend is likely to continue and may result in increased number of  to continue and may result in increased number of landless farmers.   landless farmers.  "}],"sieverID":"af46d402-9284-4d54-9fb2-54a24586db93","abstract":"There are polarized evidences of the impact of agricultural land fragmentation on land productivity. On the one hand there viewpoints which consider land fragmentation to harm agricultural productivity. On the other hand there are counter thoughts which view land fragmentation as a positive situation which allows farmers to cultivate many environmental zones, minimise production risk and optimise the schedule for cropping activities. We use the case of Ihemi cluster in the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) to investigate the impact of land fragmentation on crop productivity. We furthermore discuss the nature and causes of land fragmentation in the SAGCOT region and its implication on the future structure of agricultural landholdings and welfare of smallholder farmers in the region. The results showed that the nature and level of fragmentation in the study area were the outcome of combined, rather than isolated influences of supply and demand driven factors. Overall, the results did not support the claim that fragmentation reduces land productivity. This then implies that land fragmentation should not always be considered as defective. There were evidences of increasing chunks of land owned by rich farmers and investors which increased the possibility for increased consolidation of agricultural land under large scale farming. However, the landholdings for smallholder farmers might become increasingly more fragmented as poor smallholder farmers continue selling their land holdings to rich farmers and investors. Releasing the SAGCOT region's potential for agricultural development will require that smallholder farmers are helped to secure adequate and suitable land for farming, raise agricultural productivity, diversify their sources of income, and adopt good production practices. This requires setting up a strong base of investor -farmer synergies for inclusive agricultural growth."}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"074841644ad7424a8da047693c8760d3","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://digitalarchive.worldfishcenter.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12348/3828/68b079234493853f8b300f1d175c5e57.pdf"},"pageCount":9,"title":"Efficacy and safety of boric acid as a preventive treatment against Saprolegnia infection in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus)","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Results","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":50,"text":"Molecular identification of Saprolegnia strain. Following PCR and sequencing, a sequence of 690 bp of the ITS rRNA gene was obtained (Supplementary Fig. S1). Sequence alignment and phylogenetic analysis revealed the isolated strain as S. parasitica, giving %99 sequence similarity to public available sequences of S. parasitica (Supplementary Fig. S2)."},{"index":2,"size":74,"text":"In vitro activity of BA against the Saprolegnia isolate. A dose-dependent inhibition in the radial growth rates of Saprolegnia hyphae on Sabouraud Dextrose Agar (SDA) was observed. Treatment with 0.1 g/L concentration resulted in a partial but statistically significant (p = 0.006) inhibition of radial growth. 0.2 g/L gave a reduction of close to 40% (p < 0.0000) and increased gradually up to 0.6 g/L BA where no mycelial growth was observed (Fig. 1)."},{"index":3,"size":125,"text":"Toxicity testing and LC 50 . Fish mortalities were recorded following 96 hours continuous exposure to BA at concentrations of 1, 2 and 3 g/L but not below 1 g/L (no water exchange over this period). Mortality rates differed with BA concentration, i.e. 20% at 1 g/L, 75% at 2 g/L, and 100% at 3 g/L. The MG treated positive control exhibited 100% mortalities by 84 hours post treatment (hpt). For both MG positive control and 3 g/L BA treatments, mortalities started at 60 hpt while for 1 and 2 g/L, mortalities started at 96 and 72 hpt, respectively (Table 1). A dose response curve was generated and the LC 50 for Nile tilapia exposed to BA was determined to be 1.59 g/L (Fig. 2)."},{"index":4,"size":77,"text":"Since BA was previously shown to cause genotoxicity in fish, we analysed the genotoxic effect resulting from treatment with different BA concentrations with no reported mortalities using the comet assay. The results showed non-significant increase (about 2%) in the percentage of damage DNA in BA treatment compared to the control (Fig. 3). This was less than for the MG treated positive control, which showed 6% increase that was significantly (p < 0.05) different from the control group."},{"index":5,"size":65,"text":"In contrast to the above results, histological evaluation (Supplementary Figs. S3-5) did not reveal differences between the non-treated control and BA (0.6 g/L) or MG treated fish. An exception was the gills of MG treated   fish, which exhibited cellular hyperplasia in some parts (Supplementary Fig. S3c). This indicates that BA treatment at dosages of up to 0.6 g/L does not result in significant pathological changes."},{"index":6,"size":340,"text":"In vivo effect of BA treatment against Saprolegnia in Nile tilapia. Cumulative mortality, severity of lesions following in vivo infection with S. parasitica and effect of BA as preventive treatment against infestation over the 10-day period are shown in Table 2 and Fig. 4. PH was measured daily and the average value was 7.4 in the non-treated control group compared to 7.3 in the highest used BA concentration (0.8 g/L). Fish were examined for Saprolegnia associated lesions and the lesions were classified as either mild with scant mycelial growth on fish body (Fig. 5c), moderate, with obvious mycelial growth affecting single area or severe, with multiple obvious mycelial growth (Fig. 5b,a, respectively). The observed lesions included focal area of ulceration and necrosis in addition to appearance of cotton wool like growths on dorsal fin, operculum and abdomen (Fig. 5a). Untreated control fish started to die on day 3 and reached a maximum of 66.7% cumulative mortality by 10 days post infection (dpi). Among the treated fish, the highest survival (93.3%) was observed in fish treated with 0.8 g/L BA and lowest (73.3%) in fish treated with 0.2 g/L (Fig. 4, Table 3). Treatment with 0.2 g/L resulted in delayed onset of mortality and lower cumulative mortality, 26.7% by 10 dpi (Table 2). Fish treated with 0.4 and 0.6 g/L exhibited 10% mortality while those treated with 0.8 g/L had only 6.7% cumulative mortality by 10 dpi. None of the dead or surviving fish in these three groups showed signs of Saprolegnia infection. Log-rank test for equality of survivor function shows significant difference for 0-0.8 g/L (Chi-square = 46.03, p = 0.0000) and with Cox proportional hazard ratios shows a hazard ratio of 0.2-0.8 of 0.55 (p = 0.083), 0.11 (p < 0.000), 0.11 (p < 0.0000) and 0.07 (p < 0.0000), respectively. This documents reduced hazard ratios as the concentration of boric acid increases relative to control. Test for proportional hazard assumptions gives a Chi-square value of 0.98 (p = 0.3213) showing that the hazards are proportional for the model."},{"index":7,"size":102,"text":"ALT and AST enzymatic activity. In addition to mortality, we also studied tissue damage induced by Saprolegnia infection under different BA treatments. Fish that were infected with Saprolegnia but not treated with BA exhibited the highest increase in both Alanine Aminotransferase (ALT) and Aspartate Aminotransferase  (AST) enzymatic activity (Fig. 6). For BA treated fish, there was a significant (p < 0.05) reduction in AST levels for all tested concentrations compared to the non-treated control. A similar reduction was also observed for ALT but the difference was statistically significant (p < 0.05) only at treatment concentrations of 0.4 and 0.6 g/L (Fig. 6)."}]},{"head":"Discussion","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":208,"text":"In the present study, we have shown that BA can be used as a preventive treatment against saprolegniosis in Nile tilapia, as previously demonstrated for fertilized eggs and yolk sac fry of Atlantic salmon 13 . No adverse effects were observed over 10 days of continuous exposure apart from mild genotoxic effect after 96 h continuous exposure to BA. Boric acid is an essential nutrient for many living organisms including fish [14][15][16] and can be used to control infections in humans 17 , animals and plants 18 . In the current study, we have evaluated the inhibitory effect of BA on Saprolegnia hyphal growth in vitro and found approximately 5% inhibition of Saprolegnia radial growth at the lowest concentration (0.1 g/L BA). A partial dose-dependent inhibitory effect that ranged from 22.5% to 80%, was observed in all tested concentrations below 0.6 g/L, while complete inhibition was achieved at a BA concentration ≥0.6 g/L. These findings are concordant with Ali et al. 13 , who reported similar effect of BA in controlling the growth and proliferation of two Saprolegnia spp. (S. parasitica and S. diclina) isolated from Atlantic salmon and their eggs. There are however some differences regarding in vitro sensitivity of the S. parasitica to BA. In the "}]},{"head":"No. of Dead fish","index":3,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Severity of infection","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":1,"text":"No."}]},{"head":"Dead fish","index":5,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Severity of infection","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":1,"text":"No."}]},{"head":"Dead fish","index":7,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Severity of infection","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":1,"text":"No."}]},{"head":"Dead fish","index":9,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Severity of infection","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":259,"text":"No.   previous study 13 , we found 100% inhibitory effect at 0.7 g/L and above while in the present study, complete growth inhibition was obtained at 0.6 g/L and above. Although this difference could be viewed as a normal variation in experimental conditions at different laboratories, it can also be due to different isolates being tested. Indeed, Ali et al. 13 showed differences in sensitivity to BA treatment between two Saprolegnia spp., however, such variations have not been evaluated in the present study because only one strain was tested. Additionally, S. parasitica isolates from Nile tilapia and Atlantic salmon showed different growth patterns at equal BA concentrations, with Saprolegnia isolate from tilapia showing higher growth rate. Besides origin of fish species, the variation in culture conditions included the use of SDA (for tilapia isolates) in contrast to glucose yeast (GY) agar used for the salmon isolates. A recent study has investigated the efficiency of some chemicals including BA against different Saprolegnia isolates 19 . The study has reported considerable reduction in the growth rate of BA treated mycelia and concluded that the minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) of BA could be set in between two concentrations, 500 and 1000 ppm which is in accordance with our finding. The same study has confirmed the efficacy of other tested chemicals against Saprolegnia, however, none of them have been tested under in vivo conditions except for Table 3. The mortality (m, 0 = alive, 1 = dead) over the course of the experiment is summarized below for the different concentrations of boric acid."}]},{"head":"Dead fish","index":11,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Severity of infection","index":12,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":28,"text":"hydrogen peroxide which is known for its ability to control saprolegniosis on eggs of rainbow trout and chinook salmon 9,20,21 though, much higher concentration is needed (5000 ppm)."},{"index":2,"size":680,"text":"Although several chemicals have been investigated for their ability to control saprolegniosis 22 , most of them were tested under in vitro conditions with limited in vivo trials. In catfish, formalin prevented Saprolegnia infection at concentrations of 12.5 and 25 mg/L; resulting in 86.7 and 96.6% survival respectively 23 . However, neither the presence of Saprolegnia infection-related lesions nor adverse effects were investigated in surviving fish. The same study reported 100% mortality in catfish treated with copper sulphate at a concentration of 0.5 mg/L. Bronopol is effectively protecting rainbow trout from Saprolegnia infection at concentrations of 10, 15 and 20 mg/L; resulting in 62% survival at the lowest tested dose (10 mg/ml) and 100% survival at 15 and 20 mg/ L 5 , however, its adverse effects on surviving fish have not been investigated. Nile tilapia treated with potassium permanganate (100 mg/L) or hydrogen peroxide (420 mg/L) exhibited 67 and 63% survival rate respectively 24 . Nevertheless, presence of Saprolegnia lesions were not investigated and no focus was put on investigating the adverse effect although some liver enzymes levels were tested. The adverse effects of using the potassium permanganate were addressed in a separate study using much lower concentrations 25 . In the current study, the in vivo experiment included testing presence of Saprolegnia lesions after treatment and possible adverse effects associated with the treatment. The results obtained revealed that BA has protective effect against Saprolegnia infection in all treated groups except at 0.2 g/L, where mild signs of saprolegniosis were observed. However, the survival rate of BA treated fish (0.2 g/L) was relatively high (73.3%) compared to survival in non-treated control (33.3%) which exhibited moderate to severe signs of infection. In addition, no signs of toxicity or abnormality were observed over a 10 days exposure. The high survival rates and the absence of gross abnormalities of treated fish is an indication of safety. It is difficult to make a direct comparison between our study and the other studies mentioned above because of the different type of chemicals and fish species used. The study conducted by Ali et al. 13 is the most relevant since it has reported similar findings in yolk sac fry hatched from BA-treated eggs. This is in contrast to the spinal, head, fin and tail abnormalities reported in trout fry hatched from eggs treated with malachite green 26,27 In addition to the in vitro and in vivo testing, the safety of BA as a treatment for Nile tilapia was evaluated using different concentrations. Malachite green which has well demonstrated toxic effects 6,28 was used as a positive control treatment for assessment of toxicity. At 3 g/L BA, cumulative mortality was 50% following 60 h exposure. Based on the results obtained following 96 h continuous exposure to several BA concentrations, the LC 50 was estimated to be 1.56 g/L for Nile tilapia with an average body weight of 22 g. In addition, the genotoxic effects of BA were investigated using the comet assay. This test has been used extensively to monitor the level of toxicants in water using many fish species including tilapia 29 . Based on the in vitro results, samples were collected from tilapia treated at BA concentrations of 0.6 g/L (yielding complete inhibition of growth) and below, in addition to controls. Compared to the non-treated groups, only 2% increase in the percent of damaged DNA was reported in BA treated groups compared to 6% increase in MG treated ones. No histomorphological changes were observed at tested BA concentrations between 0.2 g/L and 0.6 g/L. Our findings therefore suggest that therapeutic levels of BA could cause mild genotoxicity but with no negative impact on the viability of treated tilapia fish. It must be noted, however, that the toxic effect of BA was monitored under 96 h continuous exposure while treatments are usually applied for much shorter time. The toxic effect is therefore expected to be lower under standard treatment conditions. Our data suggests that the optimal therapeutic concentration to be used may be 0.6 g/L since no infection was reported from this concentration and above."},{"index":3,"size":302,"text":"Additionally, assessment of any negative impact of BA treatment also included measurement of AST and ALT serum levels. Both enzymes are used as indicators of tissue damage 30 and their levels were also shown to be increased upon exposure to toxic materials in many fish as shown in some fish species following exposure to cadmium & copper sulfate 31,32 . High levels of these enzymes coincided with severe and moderate infection in non-treated control fish while relatively low levels were detected in BA-treated groups, including the 0.2 g/L group with mild infection. This indicates that BA decreases the systemic impact of Saprolegnia infection, and presumably reduces stress in infected fish. It must be noted that it was not possible for us to conclude whether AST and ALT were within normal limits or not since uninfected untreated controls were not included. Interestingly, higher increases of AST was detected compared to ALT. This is in contrast to the general notion that ALT is more responsive to tissue damage 30 and should be further studied in relation to pathogenicity. With regard to tissue damage, our findings indicate that the damage induced by Saprolegnia infection exceeds the adverse effects by prolonged exposure to therapeutic levels of BA. All obtained data indicate that BA is efficient and safe for use for preventing Saprolegnia infection in Nile tilapia. The main limitation when it comes to practical applications is that we only tested prolonged, continuous exposure in the present study which is somewhat impractical. Follow-up studies should therefore be conducted to determine the optimal (shortest) timing for BA exposure to prevent Saprolognia infection in the field, and if intermittent treatment can be used (for example 1 time per day). Furthermore, to what extent can BA be used to treat already infected tilapia should also be explored in more detail."},{"index":4,"size":68,"text":"The Saprolegnia isolate used in the current study was identified as S. parasitica, also previously shown by Zahran et al. 4 to cause infection in Nile tilapia. Zahran et al. 4 suggest the presence of different S. parasitica strains as a cause of saprolegniosis in Nile tilapia in Egypt. Future studies should explore strain differences for S. parasitica isolates from Egypt, including possible differences in sensitivity to BA."}]},{"head":"Materials and Methods","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":158,"text":"Saprolegnia strain. Saprolegnia sp. used in this study was isolated from a natural outbreak of saprolegniosis in Nile tilapia with more than 70% reported mortalities. Isolation was performed as described by 12 , by extracting the Saprolegnia from the skin of infected fish followed by inoculation on SDA containing antibiotics (200 µg mL −1 chloramphenicol) for 24 hours. After 24 hours incubation, a small part of agar with emerging hyphal tip was transferred to fresh media in order to obtain a clean culture. Subsequently, a piece of the clean culture was incubated in autoclaved pond water for production of zoospores and single spore culture was performed on SDA. Purified isolate was identified by PCR and sequencing using universal fungal primer ITS1-ITS4 as described previously 33 . Following sequencing, sequence alignment and phylogenetic analysis was performed using an online software 34 . The isolates used to perform the analysis and their accession numbers are provided in supplementary table S1."},{"index":2,"size":126,"text":"In vitro activity of boric acid on Saprolegnia hyphal growth. The in vitro activity of boric acid against the growth of Saprolegnia hyphae was evaluated according to the method described by Beakes & Gay 35 . Briefly BA (Sigma-Aldrich) was dissolved in sterilized distilled water (SDW) and then incorporated at different concentrations into molten SDA held at 45 °C. The concentrations were 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9 and 1.0 g/L. Sterile distilled water without BA was used as negative control treatment (0.0 g/L). Agar plugs (2 mm) with actively growing Saprolegnia mycelia were then inoculated in the center of SDA plates and the average radial growth of Saprolegnia hyphae was measured following 72 h incubation. All the concentrations were tested in triplicates."},{"index":3,"size":80,"text":"Ethics statement. The experiment was carried out in accordance with \"Guidelines for the Use of Fishes in Research\" published by American Fisheries Society (2014). Moreover, the research work was done by the first author who completed Laboratory Animal Science Course for Research workers which satisfies the requirements of the Norwegian Ministry of Agriculture and Food's definition of competence at \"FELASA C\" level. Additionally, the research work was strictly supervised by advisory committee with the approval of Worldfish Egypt country director."},{"index":4,"size":227,"text":"Assessment of BA safety in tilapia. In order to determine the suitability and safety of BA for use in Nile tilapia, we studied the toxicological effect after exposure to different BA concentrations for 96 h continuously. For this purpose, 180 farmed tilapia with average body weight 22 ± 3 g were used. Fish were divided into 9 main groups consisting of 20 fish and each of the main groups was further sub-divided into two groups placed in separate tanks (exposure in duplicate). Seven BA concentrations were tested in addition to controls. Tested BA concentrations were 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0 g/L. Aquarium water was used as a negative control treatment for toxicity while MG was used at a concentration of 0.5 mg/L 36 as a positive control for toxicity. Mortality was recorded at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, and 96 h post exposure. At the end point (96 h), the cumulative mortality was recorded in all groups and the LC 50 was determined using online software (http://www.ic50.tk). In addition, blood samples were collected from the groups exposed to 0, 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6 g/L as well as from moribund fish exposed to malachite green. The samples were collected by severing the caudal vein using syringes and transferring immediately to collection tubes containing anticoagulants for nucleic acid damage examination using a comet assay test."},{"index":5,"size":78,"text":"Assessing DNA damage using comet assay. Comet assay was performed according to the method described by Singh et al. 37 , using a three step protocol followed by immersion in lysis buffer, electrophoresis and finally staining with ethidium bromide. Two slides were prepared for each BA concentration and controls. DNA damage was assessed by calculating the percent damaged DNA in a total of 100 counted nuclei. The analysis was done blindly without prior knowledge of the sample nature."},{"index":6,"size":45,"text":"Histopathology. Samples from gills, liver and kidney of BA treated groups (0.6 g/L and below) and controls were collected for histopathological examination. All samples were fixed in 10% buffered formalin. Histopathology sections were stained with haematoxylin and eosin (H&E) after processing using standard laboratory procedures."},{"index":7,"size":344,"text":"Efficacy of BA in preventing Saprolegnia infection in Nile tilapia. About 150 Nile tilapia fish with average body weight 50 ± 5 g were used for the in vivo testing. Fish were divided into five main groups, four for BA and one for non-treated negative control. Each main group consisting of 30 fish was further subdivided into three replicates of 10 fish each, placed in separate tanks. Based on the toxicity data obtained, four BA concentrations corresponding to doses equal or below half of the estimated LC 50 were tested for their ability to prevent Saprolegnia infection in Nile tilapia. Tested BA concentrations were 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, and 0.8 g/L. For zoospore production, method described by Stueland et al. 12 was followed. Briefly, bundles of growing Saprolegnia hyphae were washed twice in autoclaved pond water (APW), transferred to glass bottle containing APW and incubated at 21 °C for 24 h to allow extensive zoospore production. The zoospore suspensions were filtered through sterilized tea filter (0.5 mm pores), a procedure that is expected to result in zoospore encystment. Obtained cysts were counted using a haemocytometer (Bürkertürk chamber). Fish were subjected to \"ami-momi\" treatment as described previously by Hatai & Hoshiai 38 and Stueland et al. 12 before being exposed to Saprolegnia spores at a concentration of 1.0 × 10 4 spores L −1 . Except for the control, boric acid was added at the time of infection, to the tanks to reach the corresponding concentrations. All treated groups were exposed to BA continuously for ten days. Water was not exchanged over this period and the fish were not fed. Over this period, fish were observed for signs of saprolegniosis. Number of dead fish, temperature and pH were recorded daily. At the end of the 10-day period, blood samples were collected by severing the caudal vein using syringes as described previously. Fish were euthanized using overdose of Tricaine Methanesulfonate (MS-222, Sigma-Aldrich) in water. Serum was separated from the blood and the activities of ALT and AST enzymes were measured using DRI-CHEM NX500 VET analyzer and slides."},{"index":8,"size":103,"text":"Statistical analysis. Kurskal-Wallis test was performed to determine differences in DNA damage induced using GraphPad prism 8. One-way ANOVA followed by Dunnett's multiple comparisons test was also performed using GraphPad Prism version 8.0.0 for Windows, GraphPad Software, San Diego, California USA, for differences in radial growth of Saprolegnia at different boric acid concentrations. Similarly, differences in ALT and AST was performed using the same method. A log-rank test for equality of survivor function was carried out for the challenge experiment using different BA concentrations, followed by a Cox hazard ratio estimation. Differences between treated and controls were evaluated at a p-value < 0.05."}]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 1 . Figure 1. Inhibition of Saprolegnia growth on Sabouraud dextrose agar (SDA) following treatment with different BA concentrations. Partial inhibition occurred in all treatments ≤0.5 g/L while the complete inhibition was observed at concentrations 0.6 g/L and above. "},{"text":"Figure 2 . Figure 2. Dose response curve analysis and LC 50 determination of BA treatment in Nile tilapia. LC 50 was determined to be 1.59 g/L and calculated using an online software (http://www.ic50.tk). "},{"text":"Figure 3 . Figure 3. Percent of damaged DNA in blood after treatment with different boric acid (BA) concentrations. The percent of damaged nuclei was determined by counting 100 nuclei. Bars represent the average of 2 samples per concentration ± SD. Asterisk indicate statistical significance (*p < 0.05). "},{"text":"Figure 4 . Figure 4. Effect of continuous exposure to boric acid (BA) treatment (from 0 to 0.8 g/L) on the survival of Nile tilapia experimentally infected with S. parasitica. "},{"text":"Figure 5 . Figure 5. Tilapia experimentally infected with S. parasitica showing severe (black squares) and moderate (white squares) signs of infection in non-treated control group (a,b, respectively) while (c) is showing mild signs of infection (circles) associated with BA treatment at a concentration of 0.2 g/L. No signs of infection were observed in all BA treated groups at concentrations above 0.2 g/L. "},{"text":"Figure 6 . Figure 6. ALT and AST enzymatic activity in Saprolegnia-infected fish treated with different concentration of BA. Bars represent the average values obtained from three fish ± SD. Asterisks indicate statistical significance (*p < 0.05-0.01). "},{"text":"Table 1 . Mortalities  "},{"text":"Table 2 . Effect of boric acid (BA) treatments on the survival of Nile tilapia experimentally infected with S. parasitica. Severity of lesions associated with experimental infection is also presented as follows: non, for no lesions (absence of mycelial growth); mild, for scanty mycelial growths on fish body; moderate, for obvious mycelial growth affecting single area and severe for multiple obvious mycelial growth.  "}],"sieverID":"8e40bc0d-6804-425f-9298-30e3761241ba","abstract":"Saprolegniosis is a worldwide fungal-like infection affecting freshwater fishes and their eggs. Reports show high mortalities and subsequent economic losses annually from Saprolegnia infections. Most therapeutants against Saprolegnia spp. infections are inefficient and some have negative impact on the environment. In this study, we have investigated the ability of boric acid (BA) to prevent Saprolegnia infection in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). BA inhibited radial growth of Saprolegnia hyphae in vitro. Complete in vitro growth inhibition was found at a concentration of ≥0.6 g/L. Inhibitory effects were also observed in vivo when Nile tilapia were experimentally challenged with Saprolegnia spores and followed over 10 days post challenge and under continuous exposure to different BA concentrations. No signs of saprolegniosis were observed in fish treated with BA at concentrations of 0.4 g/L and above. Comet assay revealed that BA has low toxicity in tilapia continuously exposed to concentrations of 0.2-0.6 g/L for 96 h. Additionally, no significant histomorphological changes were observed in BA-treated fish compared to non-treated controls. Alanine Aminotransferase (ALT) and Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST) enzyme levels indicated reduction in systemic tissue damage associated with Saprolegnia infection. This study demonstrates the potential of BA as a prophylactic measure against Saprolegnia infection in tilapia, and we recommend additional studies on environmental impact.Saprolegniosis is a serious threat to the aquaculture industry worldwide. The pathogen, Saprolegnia, belongs to oomycetes and are classified as fungal-like organisms 1 . The disease causes considerable economic losses in wild fish populations and in aquaculture 2,3 . Moreover, Saprolegnia sp. spores are difficult to prevent entering aquaculture facilities through the intake water. Saprolegnia parasitica in particular is associated with losses in different fish species including Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). It has been shown that S. parasitica can cause >95% cumulative mortalities in Nile tilapia under experimental conditions and that differences in pathogenicity exist among S. parasitica strains 4 .For many years, malachite green (MG) was the main treatment for Saprolegnia infections, highly efficacious and affordable. But due to its teratogenic, mutagenic and carcinogenic effects, the use of malachite green was banned worldwide 5,6 . Instead, therapeutants such as formalin, bronopol, sodium chloride and hydrogen peroxide are currently used to prevent or control Saprolegnia infections 7-9 , however, none of them are comparable to malachite green in efficiency. As a result, saprolegniosis has become an increasing challenge for the aquaculture industry [10][11][12] . Recently, we proposed boric acid (BA) as an efficient prophylactic treatment for Saprolegnia infection in salmonid eggs and yolk sac fry 13 . The high hatchability in treated salmon eggs and the high survival in yolk sac fry provided documentation that BA was safe for use. The present study was conducted to evaluate BA as a preventive treatment against Saprolegnia infection in Nile tilapia. In addition, the safety for use of BA in Nile tilapia fish was also investigated."}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"07a1441813a1562516f76a4721e282aa","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/54b96ac8-70ec-489c-a219-1b0ea83bda14/retrieve"},"pageCount":7,"title":"Tropical Forages Selection Tool -User Survey Information","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Introduction","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":117,"text":"Forecasts predict that global demand for meat, milk and eggs will double by 2050, with the largest increases being in developing countries. That scenario cannot eventuate without at least a parallel increase in availability of quality animal feed. Forages, be they from short term or permanent pastures, from conserved hay or silage, or sourced from cut and carry systems, are usually the most cost-effective option to meet feed demands in ruminants and even in pig and poultry production. They are also central to the ever-increasing \"sustainable intensification\" of mixed crop-livestock systems where they underpin livestock production and can provide ecosystem services including replenishment of soil nutrients, particularly nitrogen, improved soil health, pest control and reduced soil erosion."},{"index":2,"size":80,"text":"Unlike the roles of forages in temperate farming systems, forage species that might be best in particular tropical and subtropical farming systems, and how they might be used, is a relatively new area of science, which has grown since its start in the mid-20th century. Also unlike in temperate systems, where relatively few species of grasses and legumes are used, over 150 species of tropical and sub-tropical grasses and legumes have been recognized as having potential production or environmental value."},{"index":3,"size":72,"text":"Despite the growing demand for livestock products and feed options to underpin that growth, many national and international institutions across the globe have severely reduced investment in tropical and subtropical forage research. Consequently, there is an alarming worldwide shortage of expertise in tropical and subtropical forage adaptation and use to help interpret the wealth of information on adaptation, potential use, and value of this large number of species accumulated over 70+ years."},{"index":4,"size":95,"text":"The Tropical Forages Selection Tool (TF, before SoFT; www.tropicalforages.info) is an open-access online expert knowledge system created by a team of renowned international forage specialists between 2000 and 2005 and updated between 2017 and 2020. It provides detailed information on 172 major forages grown in the tropics and sub-tropics and incorporates a species selection tool based on target environment and forage use. The ability to select and prioritize forages for specific production niches, environments, socioeconomic and animal requirements is important to mitigate feed shortages and improve natural resource management as part of sustainable farming systems."},{"index":5,"size":97,"text":"TF was initially developed between 2000 and 2005 to capture the expertise of experienced, often retired, forage specialists from across the globe and to present information it in a structured way that can guide a new generation of researchers, advisors, development specialists and conversant farmers to make informed choices of species and genotypes for particular environments and farming systems. The initial version of this tool was released in 2005 via CD-ROMs and the internet. Since then, it has become recognized as the preeminent resource for information on tropical and sub-tropical forage species, their adaptation and potential use."},{"index":6,"size":42,"text":"To respond to both new available information on forage species and changes in ICT developments, the tool was completely revised and updated from 2017 to 2020, and now includes a mobile application which can be downloaded in the main mobile app stores."},{"index":7,"size":122,"text":"TF consists of two modules, namely the Selection Tool and the Forage Factsheets. The Factsheets contain information on the most used (or recommended) tropical forages (172 in total), covering e.g., the scientific name of the species, synonyms and common names, a morphological description, their distribution and uses/applications, agronomic information and feeding values, production potential, seed production, strengths and limitations, and cultivars and promising accessions. The Selection Tool enables users to enter their site-specific agro-ecological information, such as latitude, altitude, rainfall, soil texture, and soil fertility, among others, and provides them with potential forage options based on the selected features. The Selection Tool is linked with the Forage Factsheets so that the user can access more detailed information on the suggested forage options."}]},{"head":"TF allows users to:","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":26,"text":"• identify a list of forage species suitable for particular combinations of climates, soils, production systems and management via a selection tool and Fact Sheet software"},{"index":2,"size":38,"text":"• access and download comprehensive information on these species with details of adaptation, uses and management of species, cultivars, and elite accessions • access information on potential risks (mostly weediness or toxicity) associated with the use of species"},{"index":3,"size":10,"text":"• view images of the various forages and their use"},{"index":4,"size":12,"text":"• request seed samples through the linked Genebanks of ILRI and CIAT"}]},{"head":"Potential benefits of the Tropical Forages Selection Tool","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":32,"text":"• Livestock producers can select appropriate forages for their agro-ecological context, access valuable information on their characteristics and how to grow them, and by this, increase the efficiency of their production systems"},{"index":2,"size":61,"text":"• Extensionists can more easily support livestock producers in the selection of appropriate forage materials for their agro-ecological context, and provide tailored solutions on how to grow and manage them • Policy makers can use the tool to identify promising forage materials for the regions of interest in their countries and based on this, develop more tailored policies and investment support"},{"index":3,"size":41,"text":"• Development specialists and agencies can more easily identify forage materials for their areas of intervention, access valuable information on how to grow and manage them, and based on this, more clearly focus a) strategic decision-making, and b) on-farm development support"},{"index":4,"size":47,"text":"• Researchers get an overview of promising forage materials for different tropical regions, their characteristics, performance, management, and limitations, and based on this, can more efficiently plan field evaluations, i.e., reducing the number of potential materials to the most promising ones more easily and before planting them"}]},{"head":"Objective: Getting to know the users of Tropical Forages through user surveys","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":98,"text":"We conducted two voluntary user surveys, a first one between June and July 2017 and a second one between September and October 2021, was to get a more in-depth understanding of the people using the tool, their preferences and difficulties while using the site, as well as to identify bottlenecks and possible solutions to be developed for future versions. A total of 220 and 217 users responded the 2017 and 2021 surveys, respectively. It is important to note that both user surveys are not representative since they are based on voluntary participation and no sampling method was applied."},{"index":2,"size":42,"text":"In addition, this report provides user statistics consulted through Google Analytics for the period from 2018 to 2021, with a particular focus on changes in user numbers and page views since the launch of the new version of TF in August 2020."}]},{"head":"Results from the user surveys","index":5,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Socio-demographic information of the surveyed users","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":100,"text":"Table 1 highlights the socio-demographic characteristics of the TF users. In summary, most of the users are male and a large majority hold a university degree. Regarding the type of institutions the surveyed users represent, most are from the education and research sectors. Where donors played a larger role in 2017, extensionists became more popular users in 2021. Primary producers till make up only a small percentage of the surveyed users. Regarding the users' origin, the largest share of the survey participants come from Latin America and the Caribbean, and specifically from Brazil, the Andes, Mexico and the Southern Cone."}]},{"head":"Use of TF","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":141,"text":"In 2017, TF users consult the website on average four times per month, and in 2021, the tool is being accessed on a weekly basis by 28.6% of the users, and on a monthly and yearly basis by 40.6% and 30.9% of the users, respectively. The most frequently used content of the tool (Table 2) are the Fact Sheets, the sole use of the Selection Tool receives less attention. The combination of accessing the Fact Sheets through the Selection Tool according to the suggested forage alternatives is very popular among the users. The purpose of consulting TF is shown in Table 3 and shows the high relevance of the tool for research, education, extension, and farm improvement.    2021) of the users know websites/tools similar to TF such as Feedipedia (www.feedipedia.org), Pasture Picker (Australia, www. pasturepicker.com.au) or the FAO Species Profiles (http://www.fao.org/fishery/affris/species-profiles/en/)."}]},{"head":"Spreading information","index":8,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Quality of the information provided by TF","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":67,"text":"The surveys intended to evaluate the quality of the information provided through the website and its 2 components Fact Sheets and Selection Tool with regard to usefulness, completeness of the information about each species, completeness of the species provided, and the state of the art of the information provided. The survey participants could score between 1 and 5, being 1 the lowest score and 5 the highest."},{"index":2,"size":26,"text":"Table 5 provides the average scores for both components. In general, the Fact Sheets received higher average scores than the Selection Tool for all evaluated items."},{"index":3,"size":35,"text":"The scores of most items for both the Fact Sheets and the Selection Tool have improved from 2017 to 2021, indicating that the new version of TF is more useful and attractive to the users."}]},{"head":"Functioning of the website","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":104,"text":"Apart from evaluating the quality, we intended to evaluate the functioning of the website as well, including items on the design of the website, its general functioning (speed), the easiness of navigating, the easiness of finding the right information and the overall user-friendliness. The survey participants could rank between 1 and 5, being 1 the lowest score and 5 the highest. Table 6 presents the average scores. As for the information on the Fact Sheets and Selection Tool, the scores the overall website have improved from 2017 to 2021, indicating that the new version of TF is more useful and attractive to the users."}]},{"head":"Bottlenecks from a user perspective","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":40,"text":"The main bottlenecks of TF identified by the users are shown in Table 7. Compared to 2017, advances could be made with the new version of 2020 regarding the content, technical difficulties, language barriers and accessibility (through the app, offline). "}]},{"head":"Google Analytics","index":12,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":47,"text":"Since the user surveys for TF presented above are not representative, this subchapter aims at providing an overview on the user statistics derived from Google Analytics between 2018 and 2021. As the table shows, both the average monthly user numbers and sessions were dropping before the release  "}]}],"figures":[{"text":" of the new version of TF was launched in 2020 but have since then recovered or even increased compared to previous years. The average monthly page views have shown a constant growth rate over the past years, i.e., since the launch of the new version of TF in August 2020. The growth rate of average monthly pageviews between 2018 and 2021 was 124.42%, and 88.79% between the launch of the new version in 2020 and 2021. Figure1shows this in more detail. "},{"text":"Figure 1 . Figure 1. Average monthly pageviews of TF derived from Google Analytics "},{"text":"Table 1 . Socio-demographic information Variable 2017 (%) 2021 (%) Description Variable2017 (%)2021 (%)Description Region    Region  32.7  81.1 Latin America and the Caribbean 32.781.1 Latin America and the Caribbean  17.3  4.6 Australia/Oceania 17.34.6 Australia/Oceania  15.5  3.2 Asia 15.53.2 Asia  14.5  6.5 Africa 14.56.5 Africa  12.3  2.3 Rest North America 12.32.3 Rest North America  7.7  0.5 Europe 7.70.5 Europe  0  1.8 Others 01.8 Others Gender    Gender  82.3  75.6 Male 82.375.6 Male  17.7  23.0 Female 17.723.0 Female  0  1.4 Other 01.4 Other Education    Education  37.7  30.4 Bachelor degree 37.730.4 Bachelor degree  27.7  28.1 Master degree 27.728.1 Master degree  25.9  18.4 PhD 25.918.4 PhD  8.7  23.0 Up to Secondary 8.723.0 Up to Secondary Occupation    Occupation  29.5  n/a Researcher 29.5n/a Researcher  22.3  n/a Producer/Farmer 22.3n/a Producer/Farmer  14.1  n/a Extension Worker 14.1n/a Extension Worker  13.2  n/a Teacher/Lecturer 13.2n/a Teacher/Lecturer  12.0  n/a Other 12.0n/a Other  9.1  n/a Student 9.1n/a Student Institution Type 27.3  29.0 Research Institution Type27.329.0 Research  25.0  44.7 Education 25.044.7 Education  20.0  0.5 Donor 20.00.5 Donor  12.3  0.9 Seed seller 12.30.9 Seed seller  5.5  10.1 Extension 5.510.1 Extension  4.5  4.1 Producer 4.54.1 Producer  4.1  1.4 NGO 4.11.4 NGO  1.4  3.2 Seed producer 1.43.2 Seed producer  0  5.9 Other (e.g., financial institution) 05.9 Other (e.g., financial institution)  "},{"text":"Table 2 . Consulted content of TF  content of TF Content 2017 (%) 2021 (%) Content2017 (%) 2021 (%) Fact Sheets 64.1 48.8 Fact Sheets64.148.8 Selection Tool 6.4 7.4 Selection Tool6.47.4 Both to the same extent 29.5 43.8 Both to the same extent29.543.8  "},{"text":"Table 3 . Purpose of consulting TF  of consulting TF Purpose 2017 (%) 2021 (%) Purpose2017 (%) 2021 (%) Research 28.6 31.8 Research28.631.8 Education 27.7 35.0 Education27.735.0 Farm Improvement 20.5 10.1 Farm Improvement20.510.1 Training/Extension 20.0 23.0 Training/Extension20.023.0 Others 3.2 0 Others3.20 Regarding citing TF in publications, 57.1% of the surveyed users confirmed having done so in 2017 and Regarding citing TF in publications, 57.1% of the surveyed users confirmed having done so in 2017 and 46.4% in 2021, respectively.  46.4% in 2021, respectively.  "},{"text":"Table 4   "},{"text":"Table 4 . How users got to know about TF Source 2017 (%) 2021 (%) Source2017 (%)2021 (%) Recommendation by peers 24.5 48.4 Recommendation by peers24.548.4 Search engine 46.4 14.3 Search engine46.414.3 Scientific publication 5.9 3.7 Scientific publication5.93.7 Website CIAT/The Alliance of Bioversity-CIAT 5.5 20.3 Website CIAT/The Alliance of Bioversity-CIAT5.520.3 Tropical Grasslands-Forrajes Tropicales* 9.5 9.7 Tropical Grasslands-Forrajes Tropicales*9.59.7 Other 8.2 3.6 Other8.23.6 *An online journal published by CIAT/The Alliance of Bioversity-CIAT *An online journal published by CIAT/The Alliance of Bioversity-CIAT Most of the surveyed users have recommended the website to other persons (62% in 2017 and 57% in Most of the surveyed users have recommended the website to other persons (62% in 2017 and 57% in 2021). 15.9% (2017) and 19.4% (   2021). 15.9% (2017) and 19.4% (  "},{"text":"Table 5 . Evaluation of the quality of the information provided through the Fact sheets and the Selection Tool (Score from 1-5; average scores)     from 1-5; average scores)  2017 (average score) 2021 (average score) 2017 (average score)2021 (average score)  Fact Sheets Selection Tool Fact Sheets Selection Tool Fact Sheets Selection ToolFact SheetsSelection Tool Usefulness of the information 4.43 3.99 4.41 4.17 Usefulness of the information4.433.994.414.17 Completeness of the information 4.20 3.94 4.30 4.15 Completeness of the information4.203.944.304.15 Completeness of the species 4.05 3.88 4.27 4.16 Completeness of the species4.053.884.274.16 State of the art of the information 4.11 3.91 4.18 4.13 State of the art of the information4.113.914.184.13  "},{"text":"Table 6 . Evaluation of the functioning of the website (Score from 1-5; average scores) of the functioning of the website (Score from 1-5; average scores)  2017 (average score) 2021 (average score) 2017 (average score)2021 (average score) Design of the overall website 3.97 4.17 Design of the overall website3.974.17 General functioning (speed) 4.15 4.23 General functioning (speed)4.154.23 Easiness of navigating 4.04 4.20 Easiness of navigating4.044.20 Design 3.89 4.23 Design3.894.23  "},{"text":"Table 7 . Bottlenecks of TF according to the user evaluation   of TF according to the user evaluation  2017 (%) 2021 (%) 2017 (%)2021 (%) Content (Selection Tool, Fact Sheets, species) 69.0 56.7 Content (Selection Tool, Fact Sheets, species)69.056.7 Technical difficulties (navigation, speed) 17.0 15.7 Technical difficulties (navigation, speed)17.015.7 Available languages 9.0 0 Available languages9.00 Hard copy/Offline version/App 6.0 0 Hard copy/Offline version/App6.00 Design 0 10.2 Design010.2 Others 0 8.1 Others08.1  "},{"text":"Table 8 . User statistics derived from Google Analytics  2018 2019 2020 2021 2018201920202021 Average monthly users 5,113 6,743 4,993 6,491 Average monthly users5,1136,7434,9936,491 Average monthly sessions 7,293 9,127 7,143 9,438 Average monthly sessions7,2939,1277,1439,438 Average monthly pageviews 18,055 19,704 21,463 40,519 Average monthly pageviews 18,05519,70421,46340,519  "}],"sieverID":"5965af59-202d-4808-b47c-e9b2fc53af8e","abstract":""}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"07b312031735a6ef08ecb744b1f4ec92","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/a48c350b-2bfb-4ddf-bc56-3218017aa54b/retrieve"},"pageCount":3,"title":"","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":72,"text":"Smiling Through Investments (STIN) is an agribusiness firm that seeks to empower the agricultural sector by providing expertise and a marketing platform for them to outclass. We are a 100% youth owned entity that seeks to rise above the odds of business. This entity was established in September 2013 by a group of seven UNISWA entrepreneurs due to the love of agribusinesses. We are a business inspired by the UNISWA entrepreneurial course."},{"index":2,"size":24,"text":"Vision is to develop and sustain our enterprise for self-sustainability and growth in agribusiness to effectively impact Swaziland's economy towards attainment of vision 2022."},{"index":3,"size":76,"text":"Mission is to become Swaziland's main centre of excellence in providing exceptional and up-to-date agribusiness services and quality agricultural products. The objectives of the business are to provide quality, affordable agribusiness services, to provide fresh, quality and well packaged agricultural products, to enable agribusiness promotion and use of locally grown products, to develop and sustain the project as a recognized brand into the future, and to strive in growth and alliances as a youth established business."},{"index":4,"size":118,"text":"In October 2013, we were engaged in green mealie production where we managed 1ha. It was a great success and a good opportunity for experiencing agribusiness management and its surveillances. In February 2014 through support from Seed Quality Control Services (SQCS) department at Malkerns research centre we ventured into bean seed production under their HaSSP legume seed initiative. Our success in this project lead us to be chosen to host the seed bean field day 2014 which was graced by the presence of his honourable Minister of Agriculture, Moses Vilakati. Also the CEO of Smiling Through Investments was the first elected Chairperson of HaSSP Seed Growers Cooperative for the period of three years, June 2014 to May 2017."},{"index":5,"size":123,"text":"In 2014/2015 farming season we were growing 3ha of green mealies for the vendors to be sold out in January 2015. In March 2015 from 10 to 12 we successfully hosted the 1 st edition of an Agribusiness fair and school fair festival. The event was hosted at the University of Swaziland, Faculty of Agriculture and Consumer Sciences. This two projects were carried out in an impartial fulfilment of an entrepreneurship project (AEM 320) course. On 3-6 August 2015 we represented the country during a Youth in Agriculture Summit for Southern Africa, hosted by CCARDESA in Durban, South Africa. In the summit STIN made a presentation under a topic: Fighting Youth Unemployment Through Entrepreneurial Project at UNISWA; Bean Seed Production and Agribusiness Fair."},{"index":6,"size":148,"text":"On the 7-9 of April 2016 we successfully hosted the 2 nd edition of the National Agribusiness Fair and School Festival, UNISWA Luyengo Campus. After graduating from the University STIN searched for a rented farm in Sicunusa, to continue with the bean seed production. The Seed plant where the processing and selling is done is located at SEDCO, Manzini. STIN also won a Kick-start grant in 2016 to establish the Legume seed plant. We are looking forward to grow professionally as a business, paying necessary taxes as well as employing permanent Mobile: + 268 --76940497 URL : http://www.smilingthroughinvestment.com URL : http://www.smilingthroughinvestment.com E--Mail : [email protected] j staff, owning a centre where we will do our business so that our clients will easily access our help, teaching and mentoring the youth. In January 2017, STIN started beans value added products namely; cooked frozen beans, bean jam and bean baked products."},{"index":7,"size":66,"text":"The bean value addition is done industrially in our rented kitchen in Matsapha, Mhlaleni. The beans are cooked in bulk then a larger percentage will be frozen then packaged in different sizes to increase the shelf life. Then the other cooked beans will be used to prepare the bean jam as well as the baked products that include muffins, scones and cakes to mention a few."},{"index":8,"size":35,"text":"Staff is hired to assist in cooking, packaging, selling and local distribution of the value added products. High level of technology will be used as well to ensure that we remain economically efficient and profitable. "}]},{"head":"Products","index":2,"paragraphs":[]}],"figures":[{"text":" ://www.smilingthroughinvestment.com URL : http://www.smilingthroughinvestment.com E--Mail : [email protected] jStiching part of the machineProcessing plant installation "}],"sieverID":"b291a859-07c5-4019-bf11-dbbb0b5bc9dd","abstract":""}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"088dcf2781412a2c8544c877f0ea51e2","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/e30c2929-b0b9-4c48-af17-ed3e1ce556f4/retrieve"},"pageCount":36,"title":"","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"BACKGROUND","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":20,"text":"The present document has been produced with information from two consultant reports that sought to answer the following research questions:"},{"index":2,"size":21,"text":"1. What are current vitamin A deficiency levels in Uganda and how do they compare with other countries in the region?"},{"index":3,"size":10,"text":"2. What are current consumption levels of OFSP in Uganda?"},{"index":4,"size":14,"text":"3. What proportion of the average consumption basket represents consumption of OFSP in Uganda?"},{"index":5,"size":66,"text":"4. Based on current consumption levels and sweetpotato varieties being consumed by both rural urban consumers, what is their contribution to reducing Vitamin A deficiency in Uganda? 5. How much consumption of OFSP with different beta-carotene contents will have to increase in order to reach different levels of Recommended Dietary Intake (RDI) of b-carotene? 6. Can measures such as Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) be estimated?"},{"index":6,"size":67,"text":"The report consists of two sections. In the first section, a literature review is conducted on Vitamin A deficiency in Sub-Saharan Africa with emphasis in Uganda, the current status of bio-fortification in Africa and in Uganda with emphasis on Orange-Fleshed Sweetpotato (OFSP), and the potential to use the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) methods to measure Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD) reduction through the consumption of bio-fortified crops."},{"index":7,"size":49,"text":"The second section of the report provides a preliminary assessment of the contribution of OFSP consumption in reducing VAD among vulnerable populations (women of reproductive age and children under the age of two) in Uganda and identifies dietary recommendations to enhance the consumption of VitA rich foods in Uganda."},{"index":8,"size":37,"text":"Each section of the report includes a list of references and relevant bibliography addressing the topics covered in the corresponding section, as an input to update the potential contribution of biofortified crops to reduce VAD in Uganda."},{"index":9,"size":35,"text":"The information provided in this report has the intention to update key literature and provide an ex ante analysis to assess the contribution of OFSP and other foods to reduce Vit A deficiency in Uganda."}]},{"head":"SECTION 1 1. Introduction","index":2,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"What are current vitamin A deficiency levels Globally and Regionally?","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":50,"text":"In spite of many efforts to improve its status globally, Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD) continues to be a public health problem in more than half of the world's countries, more severe in Africa and South-East Asia, and hitting the hardest young children and pregnant women in low-income settings (WHO, 2009)."},{"index":2,"size":339,"text":"An estimated 200 -250 million preschool children and 19 million pregnant women are vitamin A deficient, leading to a compromised immune system, preventable childhood blindness and increased mortality risk (WHO, 2009;Micronutrient, 2015) whereas in Sub-Saharan Africa alone, close to 40% of children under the age of five suffer a great deal of VAD. Insufficient intake of vitamin A results in an estimated 250,000 to 500,000 cases of childhood blindness every year (Micronutrient, 2015). Nearly 2 -2.5% of all childhood deaths (for children below five years) in 2013 were attributable to deficiencies in Vitamin A (Black, et al., 2013). Inasmuch as the disease burden for micronutrients including Vitamin A have, between 1990 and 2010, fallen by more than half in many countries, countries continue to face challenges to completely contain VAD. Reviews of reports from population-representative data from different countries and regions done by Stevens, et al. (2015) report a nearly 10% reduction in the global VAD prevalence (from 39% in 1993 to 29% in 2013) but reveal mixed trends in vitamin A deficiency within regions. While there is some notable progress in Eastern and South-East Asia, Oceania, Latin America and the Caribbean nations, the trends in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia show that prevalence remains unchanged (Stevens, et al., 2015). In Sub-Saharan Africa, based on reports by UNICEF Global Nutrition Database (2018), almost half (48%) of children aged 6 to 59 months were affected by VAD in 2013 1 . Nearly half of (47%) of children aged 6 to 59 months in West Africa (Nutrition Exchange, 2018) and at least 4 in every 10 children under the age of 5-years (39%) in Eastern Africa are Vitamin A deficient, with rates varying across countries as within sub-SSA regions. For example, over 60% of preschool aged children and 16% of pregnant women in Democratic Republic of Congo, a third of Tanzanian children as well as over 30% of Nigerian 2 1 https://data.unicef.org/topic/nutrition/vitamin-a-deficiency/ preschool children are deficient in Vitamin A (WHO, 2009;Waized, et al., 2015; World Bank Nutrition at a Glance, n.d)."}]},{"head":"Vitamin A Deficiency Status for Uganda","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":104,"text":"Despite notable economic growth and advances in the economy over the past decade, Uganda still continues to face severe challenges in feeding and maintaining good nourishment for its citizens (Global Knowledge Initiative, 2015). Over 33% of children under the age of five are malnourished and malnutrition explains more than 40% of child mortality in the country. Beyond malnutrition, hidden hunger and low agricultural productivity aggravate other nutrition challenges such as micronutrient deficiency and dietary diversification thereby causing losses in DALY's for the population. According to HarvestPlus (2012), the burden of micronutrient deficiency namely Vitamin A, Iron, Zinc and Iodine for example, is considered severe."},{"index":2,"size":253,"text":"Although various efforts were initiated and progress to reduce Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD) has been seen, the problem is still rampant among children under age five. This has been considered a combined effect of different bottlenecks such as low incomes, food insecurity and hidden hunger which effectively threaten human health and productivity (Global Knowledge Initiative, 2015). State and non-state actors have used delivery of high-dose Vitamin A supplements, implementing food-based social and behavioural change interventions, as well as food fortification and biofortification of edible crops such as banana, golden cassava and Orange-fleshed sweetpotato (OFSP) to manage and eliminate VAD (UNICEF, 2007;WHO, 2013). The approaches, as efficient as they may be, do differ in the cost of delivery and sustainability. While supplementation may be costly, the use of food-based approaches such as biofortification to curb micronutrient deficiency if strengthened can effectively improve the supply and intake of essential micronutrients to households including the deprived on a daily basis at a lower cost. This paper focuses on assessing the impact and effectiveness of using biofortified crops namely sweetpotato and banana as a mechanism for addressing Vitamin A deficiency in Sub-Saharan Africa using Uganda as a case study. The next sections will review the current VAD levels is Uganda and SSA, current production and consumption levels of biofortified sweetpotato and bananas and their contribution to reducing VAD, assessing how much consumption of OFSP with different beta-carotene contents to reach Recommended Dietary Intake (RDI) of beta-carotene, and lastly evaluate whether measures such as DALY can be estimate."}]},{"head":"Biofortification of OFSP and Vitamin A Banana","index":5,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Current Efforts and Status of Bio-fortification in Africa","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":141,"text":"Biofortification -which is a process of breeding and delivering staple food crops with higher micronutrient content (Qaim, Stein, and Meenakshi 2007;Bouis et al. 2011;Saltzman et al. 2013) has increasingly become a very important tool for combating micronutrient malnutrition and has recently gained importance in food-based nutrition approaches (Meenakshi, 2009;Okello, et al., 2017). Recent efforts to introduce biofortified crops in many parts of Africa, South America and China have demonstrated that micronutrient density can be increased in food staples without having any notable negative effects on other farmer-preferred traits. Since 2003, breeders across the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) have been working on and succeeded in developing, rolling out and disseminating varieties of staple crops that contain significant levels of bioavailable, critical micronutrients including Vitamin A, Zinc and Iron (Asare-Marfo et al., 2013). Various crops have therefore been successfully improved."},{"index":2,"size":282,"text":"In SSA, bio-fortification has taken a promising shape as multiple initiatives have significantly contributed to the development and dissemination of biofortified crops including pro-vitamin A (Orange) maize, OFSP, iron beans, high Pro-vitamin A carotenoids banana, golden cassava and many others. As part of the CGIAR's Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), Through HarvestPlus,. OFSP and banana were introduced and promoted in Uganda, orange maize in Zambia, golden Cassava in Nigeria, Cassava and iron beans in The Democratic of Congo (DRC), iron beans in Rwanda, and pearl millet in India in order to fight VAD and food and nutrition insecurity (Saltzman et al., 2013). To date, efforts by National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO) and Queensland University of Technology (QUT) to introduce enriched Pro-Vitamin A Carotenoids (PVACs) cooking banana bio fortification in Uganda have proven successful (Paul, et al., 2018). Deployment of the high Pro-Vitamin A Carotenoids Banana has therefore contributed to increased vitamin A intake in diets of vulnerable people and subsequently to improvements in vitamin A status (Ekesa et al., 2015). In 2009, International Potato Center (CIP) launched its Sweetpotato for Profit and Health Initiative (SPHI), with the mandate to deliver OFSP in Africa to reach 10 million households by 2020 (Bouis, et al., 2013). Various varieties of OFSP were developed and introduced to scale and clean planting material production and selling was also enhanced to ensure that farmers have sufficient access to OFSP. In SSA countries such as Uganda, Harvest Plus has supported farmers and major multipliers with essential inputs such as OFSP planting material, water pumps and cost relief on construction of mini screen houses for production of disease-free vines to build access further (Harvest Plus, 2015)."}]},{"head":"Efficacy, Effectiveness and Acceptability of Biofortification and Vitamin A","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":249,"text":"A number of Vitamin A bioavailability studies have reported a considerable and efficient conversion from pro-vitamin A to retinol, the form of vitamin A used by the body. Efficacy studies have demonstrated a moderate effect on vitamin A status if pro-vitamin A intake from biofortified crops such as OFSP is increased (Haskell et al., 2004;Low et al., 2007;van Jaarsveld et al., 2005). As starch, smaller units of OFSP can supply the daily dietary needs of Vitamin A to consumers. For example, some studies have revealed that a 125 grams of most OFSP varieties can supply the recommended daily allowance of vitamin A for children and non-lactating women (Andrade et al., 2009). An under five (5) aged child, will only require on average one small root (100-125g) of OFSP which contains about 400 Retinol Activity Equivalents (RAEs) and is sufficiently the amount of vitamin A recommended as daily allowance for a child under 5 years (Low, 2013). Other efficacy studies show that consumption of the biofortified OFSP has far much more health benefits than Vitamin A supply as it has also been linked to reducing the prevalence and duration of diarrhoea in children in Mozambique (Jones and De Brauw, 2015;Harvest Plus, 2015). On consumer acceptability, sensory evaluation studies conducted in Uganda, Mozambique and South Africa show that consumers liked the sensory attributes of OFSP such as taste, appearance, aroma, and texture and for its processed products, consumers like the bread, chips and doughnuts made from it (Okello, et al., 2017)."}]},{"head":"Importance of Biofortified Sweetpotato and Banana: Opportunity for fighting VAD in Uganda","index":8,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Household Supply (Availability) and Consumption Demand for OFSP and biofortified Banana in Uganda","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":185,"text":"Sweetpotato has been one of the most widely grown and consumed root crops in Africa and is home to some of the top five highest ranked producers in the world including Nigeria (2 nd after China), Uganda (world's 3 rd ), and the United Republic of Tanzania (5 th after Indonesia). Over the last few decades, sweetpotato (including OFSP) production has steadily increased relative to the rest of the world, from 14-16% in 2012 to nearly 20% of global production in 2017 after Asia which produces over 70% of global production (Sugri et al., 2017;UNCTAD, 2012). Interestingly, the surge in Africa's production is not just due to land expansion only, but also use of improved technologies such as high-yielding cultivars. In spite of global challenges such as climate change becoming an important threat to RTB production, global production is expected to be 50% higher than the production in 2010 and that Africa is expected to more than double its production, a trajectory it will sustain to 2050 to emerge as the world's biggest producer and per capita consumer (Rosegrant, et al., 2017;Petsakos et al., 2019)."},{"index":2,"size":70,"text":"Triggers of supply increase in developing countries including Africa are argued to be a combination of improvements in yield growth rates which is currently below world average and conducive agroecological conditions as well as poverty that may drive a shift from more traditional staples and transition towards more consumption of RTB crops as energy needs surge due to population growth (Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012;Low et al., 2017;Petsakos et al., 2019)."},{"index":3,"size":210,"text":"Bananas and sweetpotato including OFSP are some of the most prominent staple and cash crops in Uganda and the rest of East Africa. They are respectively the first and third most important agricultural commodities by production volumes and play very critical roles in the food and farming systems. Many households consider sweetpotato a household food security crop that cushions families against food shortage in cases of adverse weather conditions and OFSP as a nutritional crop. OFSP is nearly grown in all parts of Uganda and production takes place throughout the year, therefore assures a year round supply of food and income (Andrade et al,. 2009;UNCST, 2007;Okoboi, 2001;and Bashaasha et al., 1995). The position of OFSP has increasingly become more profound over the years as at least 1.8 million MT is produced every year and at least 1.5 million farming households have adopted OFSP and/or Pro-Vitamin A banana for production (UBOS, 2010; Uganda Census of Agriculture, 2010;MAAIF 2010;FAO, 2013). The area under orange-fleshed sweetpotato has been increasing even though yields are still very low (4.4t/ha) compared to the global average of 14t/ha (Low et al., 2009). There's therefore more opportunity for enhancing production and availability of OFSP for food and nutrition security and health by improving productivity of the available land."},{"index":4,"size":157,"text":"Like orange-fleshed sweetpotato, Banana and plantain have a very significant economic value in Uganda and all of East Africa. Production is the highest in the region with Uganda leading the whole SSA region. Uganda alone produces over 10 million MT of bananas annually allocating about 10-30% of arable land. Consumption of banana and plantain (cooking banana) in the region is also the highest in the world with an average range of about 220-460 kg per person (about 3-11 bananas each day) of cooking banana consumed in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi (Englberger et al., 2003;Kilimo Trust, 2012). In 2007, Bananas accounted for 17% of total daily per capita caloric food availability becoming the most important source of calories in Uganda. Actual annual demand is estimated to be over 3 million MT (Kilimo Trust, 2012). It is the main food staple for some 13 million people and an important source of food, nutrition, and income security for smallholder producers."}]},{"head":"Opportunity for Enhancing DALY Savings through Bio-fortification of OFSP and Banana in Uganda","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":29,"text":"The high production and consumption rates for sweetpotato (including OFSP) and banana (including (iii) high micronutrient deficiency rates for the micronutrient that can be bred into the specific crop."},{"index":2,"size":86,"text":"Uganda therefore is presented with a very good opportunity to register higher gains in VAD reduction and therefore saving life-years as a result of increased VA intake. The interaction of the higher production rates, the higher per capita consumption levels and the higher VAD burden among children of below five years make these most prominent biofortified crops: OFSP and High Vitamin A Banana (Fiedler et al., 2013;Hotz et al., 2012), a viable set of interventions to increase health outcomes (DALY's saved) by curbing micronutrient malnutrition cost-effectively."},{"index":3,"size":28,"text":"In this paper, we explore the possibility of measuring the health benefits of vitamin A Biofortification using DALY saved as a result of consuming pro-Vitamin A Orange-Fleshed Sweetpotato."}]},{"head":"Using DALYs and Cost-Effectivennes to Measure VAD Reduction Benefits Through OFSP in Uganda","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":13,"text":"(Can measures such as Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) and cost-effectiveness be estimated?)"},{"index":2,"size":230,"text":"The benefits and cost-effectiveness of a biofortified crop such as OFSP can be assessed by using savings in the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as a result of consuming it. DALY have been used in the last two decades as a decision tool for health policy and were first applied to analyse Biofortification by Zimmerman and Qaim in 2004 (Fiedler, et al, 2013). DALY's have become particularly useful and powerful tools for assessing policy alternatives as they can combine impacts from various intervention into an index and this enables assessment of multiple policies and their effects. For example, preliminary studies using DALYs methodology on biofortification showed that introduction of iron-biofortified beans in Nicaragua may result in 44-49% reduction in the DALYs lost annually due to iron deficiency (Johnson, Garcia and Gonzalez, 2004) and could save between 252 and 989 years of productive lives in that country saving the country up to US$246, 000 -969, 000 on the economic impacts (Perez Suarez, 2011). In Phillipines, Zimmermann and Qaim (2004) revealed that VAD caused an annual loss of about 270, 000 years of \"health\" life leading to economic losses of over US$278.2 million per year, an equivalence of 0.3% of Phillipines Gross National Product (GNP). An introduction of Golden rice (Vitamin A rice) therefore had the potential to save 85, 137 years for the country and gain of up to US$87.7 million consequently."},{"index":3,"size":50,"text":"Generally, DALYs evaluate both mortality and morbidity --temporary and permanent, thus it captures the permanent or partial incapacities (disabilities) that are caused by death or illness (Zimmermann and Qaim, 2004). The general formula suggested by Murray and Lopez (1996) in one index. in the following way (Murray and Lopez (1996)):"},{"index":4,"size":62,"text":"where YLL is number of years of life lost due to mortality, and and YLDperm are the years of life with temporary and permanent disability, respectively. Where the sum of the DALYs lost for each disability year gives the total disease burden and therefore DALYs lost will measure the annual disease burden of the micronutrient deficiency in question (Stein et al., 2008)."},{"index":5,"size":104,"text":"In order to assess the effects and impacts of biofortification and the associated cost-effectiveness, Zimmerman and Qaim (2004) modified the general DALY framework to evaluate the impact of biofortified crops, using a case study of Vitamin-A rich rice, to identify and quantify the specific health outcomes related to VAD in various targeted populations. Considering that levels of severity differ in levels and the extent of a disease varies among groups within a population, such that under-2's, under-5's, women of reproductive age, pregnant or lactating women, will be affected differently by VAD and their Vitamin A needs are also as distinct. Thus, the approach becomes:"},{"index":6,"size":75,"text":"Where T j is the total number of people in target group j, and Mj is the mortality rate associated with the deficiency. I ij is the incidence rate of functional outcome i in target group j, D ij is the corresponding disability weight and d ij is the duration of the outcome. Ill health can be transitory or permanent. For permanent health problems, d ij equals the average remaining life expectancy L j ."},{"index":7,"size":158,"text":"As a metric of welfare, DALY's are used to measure the potential benefits of a nutritional intervention and the benefits can be quantified directly using DALYs saved (impact = the difference between DALY values with nutritional interventions and those without) as well as costs per DALY saved. As this allows for comparison of efficiency with other public health interventions, DALYs can be used to evaluate by ranking alternative health interventions in a consistent way (Castro, et al, 2008). Besides the impact, the approach helps to analyse cost-effectiveness of Biofortification. Based on Stein et al. (2008), for using the DALY in cost-effectiveness analysis, only new cases occurring in a particular year are counted and all future losses in the form of permanent and long-term health problems, they are calculated, discounted and attributed to the underlying deficiency when the respective problem sets. Eventually, the disease burden refers to the number of DALYs that are lost by each new age cohort."},{"index":8,"size":130,"text":"Cost-effectiveness for a public health intervention can be interreted and compared using the benchmark metrics that World Bank and World Health Organization (WHO) have suggested for interpreting costs per DALY. The World Bank considers an intervention \"very cost-effective\" if its cost per DALY does not exceed USD2602 (World Bank 1993) whereas WHO defines an intervention as \"very costeffective\" if the cost per DALY saved is less than the per capita income and does not consider it \"costeffective\" unless its cost per DALY saved is one to three times the per capita income (WHO 2003). In monetary terms, according to its criteria, WHO will consider an intervention \"cost effective\" if the cost per DALY saved is less than $1,380 and \"very cost-effective\" if it is less than $460 (World Bank 2012;"},{"index":9,"size":2,"text":"WHO 2003)."},{"index":10,"size":46,"text":"Unlike other alternative approaches such as \"Cost-of-Illness\" methods or \"Willingness to Pay\" methods, DALYs approach has the advantage of measuring health directly as the DALYs are not influenced by the earnings of individuals or in international comparisons, by the productivity of nations (Stein et al., 2008)."},{"index":11,"size":182,"text":"performance of school going children. In women of reproductive age, it is a leading cause for maternal night blindness, anemia and contributes to congenital malformations (Christian P. et al., 1998). A study by Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS), 2011, shows that up to 38% of children and 36% of women in Uganda are vitamin A deficient. In regards to this, there have been deliberate joint efforts by various organizations to address the problem, however, the problem has not been entirely eliminated. United Nations estimates with 82.9% dwelling in the rural areas of Uganda. Among these, 38% of children below the age of five and 36% of women of childbearing age suffer from vitamin A deficiency. This population has a limitation of access to provitamin A rich foods due to the high levels of poverty representation of about 31% of the total population, Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), 2016. Intrahousehold food sources, resource sources and allocations, largely dictate and form the foundation on which household food choices are made, often leading to the exclusion of provitamin A rich foods from the diet.  "}]},{"head":"Measures to Combat VAD in Uganda","index":12,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Orange Fleshed Sweetpotato Varieties in Uganda.","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":46,"text":"Sweetpotato is ranked as the 3 rd most consumed crop in Uganda, after plantain and cassava (Odongo et al., 2001). Its high production it the best choice as a model country for the adoption and the dissemination of newly developed and improved orange fleshed sweetpotato cultivors. "}]},{"head":"Computation Formulae","index":14,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":15,"text":"The Retinal Activity Equivalent (RAE 1) for 100g of ingredient was calculated using the formula:"}]},{"head":"i) RAE1 (µg) = Beta carotene (µg) in 100g / 12","index":15,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":16,"text":"The Retinal Activity Equivalent in each ingredient portion (RAE2) in the 100g recipe was calculated by:"}]},{"head":"ii) RAE2 (µg) = Weight of Ingredient/Total Weight of Recipe (100g) x RAE of 100g Ingredient (RAE1)","index":16,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":25,"text":"Total Retinol Activity Equivalent (TRAE) consumed in 100g recipe was calculate by adding up the RAE2 of all ingredients in a recipe. Sweetpotato,W 6.5 0"}]},{"head":"iii) TRAE ((µg)) = Sum of RAE2 in each recipe","index":17,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":3,"text":"Sweetpotato,O 6.5 9"}]},{"head":"OFSP consumption and Vitamin A contribution in Women of Reproductive Age","index":18,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":115,"text":"From the same recipes, the contribution of 100g of OFSP alone to the RDA for WRA is 62% VA compared to when combined in equal proportions with Yellow and White varieties where it contributes only 31% of VA required in both recipes. In a recipe with all the three varieties combined in equal portions, OFSP contributes up to 21%. As the number of ingredients increases in recipes, and the portion of OFSP reduces, its contribution to the RDA decreases. However, it remains to be the highest contributor of VA among all ingredients and varieties. Below is a table summarizing the VA contribution of various ingredients in recipes containing OFSP among 14 recipes sampled for analysis. "}]},{"head":"Sample","index":19,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Conclusion","index":20,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":50,"text":"The Excel based Simulation Model developed indicates that OFSP has immense potential in the fight against Vitamin A Deficiency. Consumption of 100 g of OFSP daily would provide more than adequate amounts required by children below the age of five in a day but within the Tolerable Upper Intake Level."},{"index":2,"size":43,"text":"For WRA, a larger serving is required. These findings would support the development and implementation of programs that promote the cultivation and consumption of OFSP varieties. Integrating agriculture and nutrition intervention, would increase vitamin A intake and serum retinol concentrations in young children."},{"index":3,"size":60,"text":"These programs would be much more successful with the integration of nutrition education programs for WRA especially pregnant and lactating mothers. Most importantly, mothers with children below the age of two should be encouraged to exclusively breastfeed their children for six months and wean them off with diets containing OFSP together with continued breastfeeding up to the age of two."}]}],"figures":[{"text":" Initially, capsule supplementation, which are not only cost-friendly but effective in terms of administration done after every six months, offered a rapid and immediate remedy for the problem. Unfortunately, the administration of the capsules faces logistical limitations due to poorly developed health and transport sectors in the rural areas of Uganda, Uganda Food Consumption Survey, 2010, where VAD is most prevalent. In addition, vitamin A supplementation programs majorly rely on donor funds and government budgetary allocations, which raises the question of dependency and sustainability. Other strategies applied include fortification and enrichment of foods like oil and fats, and sugar during processing. These however require a high production cost, significantly raising the prices of such products. Most recently, food based approaches and strategies to addressing VAD offers a cheap alternative yet effective and sustainable way to mitigating the problem,Mitra et al., 2012. They include fortification and enrichment of commonly consumed foods during processing and biofortification of the staples at breeding programs. Despite these tremendous efforts, the current dietary patterns in Uganda do not provide adequate vitamin A to prevent deficiency. Interestingly, regional prevalence of VAD varies significantly, an insight to regional variability in consumption patterns and dietary diversity. These eating habits and food preferences are greatly influenced by cultural practices coupled with lack of health and nutrition knowledge which contributes to the neglecting of provitamin A rich foods. Plant sources of vitamin A are inexpensive and easily accessible by the poor and marginalized who are most at risk. Orange fleshed sweetpotato varieties, biofortified with vitamin A, is one of such plants. In fact, just 100g of orange fleshed sweetpotato is enough to provide the RDA for Vitamin A in young children. What is more is that, increasing the consumption of OFSP can reduce mortality for children aged5-59 months by 23%, Christine H. et al., 2012. Uganda, which is the number one producer of sweetpotato in Africa, is considered as a model for the adoption and consumption of the OFSP varieties. Acceptability studies in Uganda showed that children like and prefer the OFSP because of colour and taste. Further, an understanding of the contribution and nutritional impact of the different OFSP varieties in combating VAD is critical to assist policymakers and implementers in the formulation of policies and programs that would encourage and prioritize the consumption of OFSP to offer a practical and sustainable solution. "},{"text":" Moreover, plant food sources rich in vitamin A are only seasonally available as production practices are mainly dryland, relying heavily on rainfall. The World Health Organization ranks Uganda as among the top 90 countries with VAD. The regional distribution in the prevalence of vitamin A in Uganda is presented the figure below.Source; Food and Nutrition Technical Assistance II Project (FANTA-2), 2010From this information, the highest prevalence among children and women is in East Central Uganda at 32% and 31 %, respectively followed by East and Central Uganda. It is estimated that approximately 221,430 lives of Ugandans would be lost between 2013 and 2025 (FANTA, 2014) through vitamin A deficiency. "},{"text":" Most recently, efforts to combat VAD in Uganda have focused on food based approaches and behavior change communication. Households and farmers are encouraged to diversify their food baskets so as to include vitamin A rich foods. Home gardening is one such way of ensuring year round supply of provitamin A rich foods while at the same time addressing dietary diversity, household food security and income generation. Primarily, plantain, pumpkin, starchy roots, cereals, pulses, nuts and green leafy vegetables are the fundamental VA plant sources of VA for majority of Ugandans, Uganda Nutrition Profile (FAO, 2010), but the levels of beta-carotenes are low in these foods. Over the past 10 years, the International Potato Center (CIP), in collaboration with national research institutes like National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO) and with support from United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and other donors, has developed and promoted nutritious, biofortified OFSP varieties in Africa. The International Potato Center has been at the forefront of these developments with further steps being made in the value addition of this crop. In the last decade, orange fleshed sweetpotato varieties that are rich in beta-carotene, have been developed, adopted and seeds disseminated to farmers across different regions in Uganda to promote the its production and consumption. The OFSP varieties have a great potential to offer long term sustainable solution to the problem of VAD. The initial supplementation and biofortification programs have been supported with intensified nutrition education programs which aim at creating awareness and helping households make more informed dietary decisions, ultimately, a change in food consumption patterns. "},{"text":"  "},{"text":" interventions such as OFSP and high Pro-Vitamin A Banana the largest impact in terms of reduction of DALYs could potentially be achieved for those country-crop-micronutrient combinations that exhibit (i) high per-capita consumption of the specific crop sourced by domestic production; (ii) high intensity of production of the specific crop in terms of share of harvested area and of land-labor-ratio; and  "},{"text":"Market Dynamics of Sweetpotato in Uganda Sweetpotato is generally grown country wide in Uganda with Eastern Uganda ranked the highest producer followed byWestern and Central, respectively (George O. et al., 2016). Despite Northern Uganda being the lowest producer, most households largely depend on sweetpotato as the hot climate does not favor the production of other crops making the sweetpotato an important food security crop in these region. The figure below shows sweetpotato production trend in Uganda between 2009 and 2013.MethodologyA comprehensive literature review was done on peer reviewed papers and findings were consolidated. The literature reviewed was relevant to Kenya and Uganda as these two countries share common socio-cultural practices including the food consumption patterns. Another consideration was that some OFSP varieties like Kakamega are cultivated in both countries. Other material review included, books, technical papers and reports from organizations working on Food and Nutritional security in Africa and globally.The simulation model was developed using Microsoft Excel, based on food consumption data provided by HarvestPlus report. The data was only used for purposes of simulation and did not include individual consumption level/ portions thereby limiting the computation of individual daily RAE intakes. A total of 14 commonly consumed sweetpotato recipes in central and eastern Uganda were used for this model. The recipes had either sweetpotato only or in combination with other ingredients which included combining different sweetpotato varieties in different proportions as given by a 24-hour dietary recall. The computations were made from the assumption that at least 100g of the recipe were consumed by an individual in a day for both groups under this study. Deficiency analysis was done based on the RDA needs for two groups, women of reproductive age (WRA) and children under the age of two. The beta carotene content of 100g of each ingredient was according to the Food Consumption Table, HarvestPlus 2012. Information was also obtained from poster and Power Point presentations. Sites that provided secondary Information was also obtained from poster and Power Point presentations. Sites that provided secondary information included Sweetpotato Knowledge Portal, HarvestPlus, MoH Uganda, MoH Kenya, WHO, information included Sweetpotato Knowledge Portal, HarvestPlus, MoH Uganda, MoH Kenya, WHO, FAO (Food Composition and Food Consumption Tables), International Potato Center, ICRISAT and FAO (Food Composition and Food Consumption Tables), International Potato Center, ICRISAT and Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition      Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition Simulation Model Development      Simulation Model Development   Source: FAOSTAT, 2015 Despite the superior provitamin A Source: FAOSTAT, 2015Despite the superior provitamin A and other phytonutrient content in OFSP compared to other varieties grown in Uganda, production and and other phytonutrient content in OFSP compared to other varieties grown in Uganda, production and consumption is not optimum. The table below shows a list of OFSP varieties grown in Uganda in different consumption is not optimum. The table below shows a list of OFSP varieties grown in Uganda in different regions.        regions. OFSP Variety Popular Mean Yield Dry Beta Carotene all-trans Beta all-trans Beta OFSP VarietyPopularMean YieldDryBeta Caroteneall-trans Betaall-transBeta  Name (Tons/acre) matter /100g Fresh Carotene /g Carotene /g Dry Name(Tons/acre)matter/100gFreshCarotene/gCarotene /g Dry     weight  Fresh weight matter weightFresh weightmatter SPK 004 Kakamega 9.5 35 4071  41  116.3 SPK 004Kakamega9.535407141116.3 Ejumula Ejumula 6 34.6 9062  91  261.9 EjumulaEjumula634.6906291261.9 NASPOT 9-O VITA 34.6 30.7 9655  97  314.5 NASPOT 9-OVITA34.630.7965597314.5 NASPOT 10-O Kabode 30.3 30.3 7460  75  246.2 NASPOT 10-OKabode30.330.3746075246.2   Source; Tumwegamire S. et al., 2007   Source; Tumwegamire S. et al., 2007  "}],"sieverID":"26bbfffd-4226-46c7-8122-e0d5cf14d69f","abstract":"OFSP consumption and Vitamin A contribution in children below the age of two ."}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"0904c77597610fc2afe2df879321ba3e","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/b33e44c6-1805-4c7e-8de2-8c227c74636e/retrieve"},"pageCount":6,"title":"Revisiting the \"Thin Months\" -A Follow-up Study on the Livelihoods of Mesoamerican Coffee Farmers","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Making and measuring changes in farmers' livelihoods","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":131,"text":"In 2013, Keurig Green Mountain (formerly Green Mountain Coffee Roasters) worked with the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and the Agroecology and Rural Livelihoods Group (ARLG) at the University of Vermont, USA, to replicate a study of coffee farmers' welfare in Guatemala, Mexico, and Nicaragua, which CIAT had originally conducted in 2007 (Fujisaka, 2007). A key finding of the 2007 study was that the majority of households experienced 1-8 months of seasonal hunger (a period referred to locally as the \"thin months\"). This alarmed the specialty coffee industry and prompted Keurig Green Mountain to undertake new initiatives in collaboration with coffee cooperatives and NGOs, aimed at strengthening food security in the three study countries. The projects focused on such activities as diversification of employment and food production, and education scholarships."},{"index":2,"size":158,"text":"To determine whether the same problems persisted or new challenges had arisen in the target communities 1 , CIAT and the ARLG agreed to \"revisit\" the thin months issue by conducting a longitudinal study (i.e., one that would repeat the observation of key livelihood variables after a given time). For this purpose, CIAT's original survey tool was modified to gauge the welfare of coffee farmers in 2013, providing a longitudinal comparison with the original 2007 study. This policy brief describes current livelihood strategies of Mesoamerican coffee-farming households, comparing selected indicators with those from 2007, with emphasis on coffee production and food security challenges. The outcomes depend on farmers' access to a variety of human, natural, financial, social, and physical assets. To explain the complex interactions between livelihood choices and well-being, particularly in relation to both income and non-income generating activities, we used the Sustainable Livelihoods and Community Capitals Framework to guide our research design (Gutiérrez-Montes et al., 2009)."},{"index":3,"size":62,"text":"1 The 2013 sample included a large cooperative in Matagalpa, Nicaragua (2007n=33, 2013 n=28); a small cooperative in Chiapas, Mexico (2007Mexico ( n=30, 2013 n=24) n=24); a large cooperative in Veracruz, Mexico (2007Mexico ( n=23, 2013 n=22) n=22); and producers in Huehuetenango, Guatemala, who have a long-term affiliation with an exporter but are not organized under a cooperative (2007 n=32, 2013 n=35)."}]},{"head":"Months of adequate household food provisioning (MAHFP)","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":191,"text":"We asked farmers to report on the number of months in which food provisioning was not adequate rather than the number in which it was adequate. Interviewees in all three countries reported a decrease in the thin months over 6 years. As revealed in the original 2007 study, the period of food shortage tends to occur annually and predictably during the rainy season, which is why this type of food insecurity is referred to as \"seasonal\" (Caswell et al., 2012). The majority of families defined food shortage as having the income or resources to provide a certain part of their basic diet but not enough to diversify their diet and/or consume the necessary and/or desired quantities of food. For the families participating in both the 2007 and 2013 surveys (n=52), the reported average number of thin months across sites decreased from 3.81 in 2007 to 2.84 in 2013 (Figure 1). This represents a reduction of nearly 1 month, on average. Despite this improvement, the majority of people interviewed in the three countries during 2013 still considered that they have no guarantee of food security for 3-4 months out of the year."}]},{"head":"Farm size and coffee land allocation","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":83,"text":"In 2013, farm sizes across the countries were relatively similar -averaging around 8.5 ha in both Nicaragua and Guatemala, and 7.6 ha in Mexico. Farmers in Nicaragua and Mexico typically devoted more than half of their land to coffee production, while in Guatemala the total was closer to a third. In all three countries, the average land area allocated to coffee increased between 2007 and 2013. This rise was considerable but not statistically significant in Nicaragua (with an average expansion of 1.02 ha)."},{"index":2,"size":16,"text":"In Mexico and Guatemala, the average increase in coffee area was 0.81 and 0.40 ha, respectively."},{"index":3,"size":80,"text":"Many of the farmers surveyed also manage agricultural land dedicated to crops other than coffee. This activity is potentially important for food security, as it may represent other sources of income and involve subsistence food production for the household. Even so, in all three countries, families reported purchasing more than 50% of their food (55% in Nicaragua, 73% in Mexico, and 63% in Guatemala) -indicating that subsistence production accounts for only a portion of the food consumed by these families."},{"index":4,"size":89,"text":"We saw an increase in the number of farmers maintaining land allocated to maize or combinations of maize and bean (referred to locally as milpa) -from 15% in 2007 to 34% in 2013, with a varied trend in parcel size over the years in the four study areas. The average land area allocated to milpa for the sample ranged from a high of 1.8 ha in Nicaragua to just 0.61 ha in Guatemala. In Nicaragua and Chiapas, the land area allocated to milpa declined by 43% and 37%, respectively."},{"index":5,"size":22,"text":"In contrast, milpa land increased by 2.4% in Veracruz, Mexico, and 10.6% in Guatemala over the 6 years covered by the study."},{"index":6,"size":82,"text":"Across all study locations, the number of reported thin months decreased, as total farm area and total coffee area increased. The design of this study does not allow us to determine whether fewer reported thin months is a result of families using more land for subsistence food production, allocating more resources (from the sale of coffee and/or other marketable products) to food, or both. However, our findings do demonstrate that increased access to land made a positive contribution to household food security. "}]},{"head":"Average number of months of food shortage","index":4,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Coffee production and prices","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":66,"text":"Trends in coffee production varied over time at each of the study sites (Figure 2). In Nicaragua and Chiapas, average production rose by about two-thirds (though the seasonal harvests reported by producers in Nicaragua were consistently higher). In Veracruz, production was relatively stable, while Huehuetenango showed an irregular pattern, with production increasing between 2009 and 2010, and then consistently declining to near 2009 levels in 2012."},{"index":2,"size":102,"text":"In general, average composite prices (for both conventional and certified coffees) varied over the study period, showing an increasing trend with a peak in 2010 and 2011, and a decreasing trend towards 2012. Chiapas captured the highest reported prices in all years, with an average of US$4.0/kg ($1.81/lb) for the 5-year period. Nicaragua saw the lowest average price over the 5 years of coffeeprice data ($1.57/kg or $0.71/lb). While most growers produced certified coffee, they were able to sell only a portion of their harvest at certified prices. The mean coffee prices shown here are for both conventional and various certified coffees."},{"index":3,"size":21,"text":"Note: Continuous line is price and refers to legend on the right-hand side of the graph and interrupted line is yield."},{"index":4,"size":43,"text":"During the 2012 harvest, a third of farmers surveyed reported losses of 50% or more, compared with the levels expected, citing coffee leaf rust (known locally as roya and caused by the fungus Hemileia vastatrix) and climate change most frequently as the causes."},{"index":5,"size":35,"text":"Reported signs of climate variability include intense precipitation, a prolonged dry season (1-3 months), and/or higher observed temperatures -each of which can directly affect farmers' production of basic grains as well as coffee and fruit."},{"index":6,"size":31,"text":"Reasons for this included quality standards, limited market demand, cooperative quotas, and the need to sell a portion of the harvest to intermediaries for \"cash in hand\" during the harvest season."},{"index":7,"size":84,"text":"With regards to food security, the size of the coffee harvest was inversely related to the number of thin months in 2007, while in 2013, this relationship was positive (though not statistically significant). The percentage of income that farmers derived from coffee was also inversely related to the number of thin months in 2013. These data suggest that households may be investing more of their cash income to address food security -a conclusion supported by Nicaraguan farmers' high degree of awareness about this issue."}]},{"head":"Cash income and subsistence production","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":142,"text":"Another important trend we observed in this study is the shift away from pure dependence on coffee to more diversified livelihood strategies. In 2013, farmers in all three countries singled out coffee as their households' most valuable source of cash income, followed by diverse small businesses (including stores or bodegas, sewing, cooking for events, and cheese making), the sale of other agricultural goods, apiculture, nurseries, off-farm employment, and financial support from government programs (which amounted to 13% of household income in Nicaragua, 19% in Mexico, and 20% in Guatemala). In all three countries and in 2007 as well as 2013, coffee contributed more than 70% of total cash income, on average, followed by other activities (averaging 16-28%). Except in Mexico, remittances received by family members working abroad were relatively minor, contributing the lowest portion of total income (0-9%, on average) (Figure 3)."},{"index":2,"size":77,"text":"In 2013, we asked farmers to assess the percentage contribution to their livelihoods of a range of non-cash and cash assets. Besides coffee, these include various agricultural goods produced on a subsistence basis as well as poultry and other livestock. Farmers consider goods produced on a subsistence basis -maize, beans, plantains, other fruits, vegetables, and animal products -to have significant value, as these items are either directly consumed by the family or traded through community bartering systems."},{"index":3,"size":152,"text":"We also asked survey participants to assess the value of both market and non-market goods. The sum of non-market products constituted 41% of overall household value in Nicaragua, 26% in Mexico, and 38% in Guatemala, where maize and beans appear to provide the biggest share. Especially in Nicaragua and Guatemala, farmers perceived the production of maize and beans to be just as important for their livelihoods as the other activities. This finding seems counterintuitive, given the small average size of the milpa plantings in these countries. Although the production of coffee remains farmers' most important source of cash, subsistence food production tempers farmers' apparently high degree of dependence on coffee (Figure 4) and other sources of cash income in this analysis. Even while relying heavily on coffee as a cash crop, these farmers consider subsistence production to be a viable livelihood strategy, so it should be taken into account in development strategies."},{"index":4,"size":42,"text":"Though the findings were not statistically significant, as the number of income sources increased, the reported number of thin months decreased, suggesting that reducing farmers' dependence on coffee income by diversifying livelihoods could be a viable strategy for banishing the thin months."}]},{"head":"Availability and pricing of loans and financing","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":137,"text":"Because farmers have only limited cash income and need liquidity precisely when cash resources have been spent, they often seek financing to purchase inputs for coffee production or to cover household expenses. Farmers' access to credit varied across the sample. In Nicaragua, the percentage of households reporting access to credit decreased from 82% in 2007 to 64% in 2013 because of reduced availability of funds for loans and increased restrictions on lending from some cooperatives (much of which resulted from previous difficulties in debt collection). Meanwhile, in Guatemala, access to credit increased from 57% in 2007 to 100% in 2013, and in Mexico it improved from 60% in 2007 to 78% in 2013. Better access to credit in Guatemala and Mexico did not result from cooperatives providing lowinterest loans but rather from private sources offering high-interest loans."},{"index":2,"size":141,"text":"In all countries, producers reported that their investments in coffee production (even with loans) were insufficient or just barely covered their agricultural management needs. Lack of financing directly influenced coffee production levels, as evidenced by producers' comments about sacrifices in purchasing inputs and maintenance (such as annual pruning), which occur when insufficient resources are available. This irregular management weakens the plants and reduces their resistance to disease -impacting not Farmers also sought loans to cover household expenses. Only about one-third of respondents from Nicaragua and Mexico, and one-fifth from Guatemala said that they had enough money to meet basic family needs (including medical care and medicine, clothing, food, education, and transportation), even when they had borrowed money. In all three countries, families mentioned that they seek loans to purchase food, demonstrating yet another link between access to finance and food security."}]},{"head":"Policy recommendations","index":8,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Livelihood diversification","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":141,"text":"Livelihood diversification in coffee communities of Mesoamerica has been shown to have positive effects on food security, income generation, and general household stability (Bacon et al., 2008). Our results show that some farmers are increasingly able to leverage their coffee harvests together with income from other sources to improve their livelihoods. However, there is a demonstrated need for deeper investigation of the conditions under which income, crop, and land-use diversification strategies are most favorable and of their trade-offs and combined effects as well as the degree to which these approaches contribute to farmers' overall well-being. Livelihood diversification merits continued and expanded support from governments, development agencies, and coffee cooperatives, with a particular focus on farmer-led diversification strategies developed in specific contexts. Support for training and microfinance schemes -activities that overlap and interact with diversification -could also provide opportunities for positive synergy."}]},{"head":"Food security","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":82,"text":"A key challenge in strengthening food security is to ensure that development interventions strike the right balance between site specificity and scalability. Effective strategies are those designed with active farmer participation, leading to greater control by producers over food access and the type of food they consume. Successful examples of interventions currently being tested in Mesoamerica include seed banks, community food storage and distribution centers, access to land for milpa, intercropping, kitchen gardens, wild foraging, and farmyard animals (Bacon et al., 2014)."}]},{"head":"Agricultural management","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":115,"text":"Farmers report significant crop losses, primarily due to coffee leaf rust, and call for additional training and technical assistance in basic crop production. Projections of climate change (Läderach et al., 2010) and the associated risks for coffee farms (e.g., increased pests and diseases) are especially relevant to families depending on major ecosystems for food and income, and underline the need to strengthen adaptive management strategies. Participatory research and technical assistance should focus on agricultural management practices that are site specific but can be scaled up for the production of coffee, basic staples, and/or alternative cash crops, with emphasis on making production more resilient through approaches such as agroecological management, soil and natural resource conservation, and "}]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 1 . Figure 1. A comparison of the average number of months of food shortage reported for families surveyed in both 2007 and 2013, by region and for the entire sample. "},{"text":"Figure 2 . Figure 2. Longitudinal yield and price data from 2006 and 2009 to 2012 in four coffee-growing regions of Mesoamerica.The mean coffee prices shown here are for both conventional and various certified coffees. "},{"text":"Figure 3 . Figure 3. Comparative distribution of monetary income sources in three Mesoamerican coffee regions from 2007 to 2013. "},{"text":"Figure 4 . Figure 4. Contribution of different income sources to household livelihoods, as reported by farmers in three coffee-producing countries of Mesoamerica. "},{"text":"  "}],"sieverID":"a6bb7f6b-3c24-477b-9b28-2b30719b71f7","abstract":"Over a 6-year period, coffee producers experienced less seasonal food shortage, on average (1.3 fewer months per year), but the majority of families still reported food shortages during an average of 3-4 months per year.• Farmers' ability to invest in new on-farm enterprises depends greatly on their access to financial support. In general, interest rates remain high everywhere (averaging ≥18 % annually), and a lack of cash income to pay off annual loans leaves many producers in a poverty trap. They either escape debt only temporarily after coffee harvest payouts or carry ever-increasing debt burdens, which threaten both production and family well-being.• Income diversification proved effective for reducing the number of reported \"thin months.\" As the number of income sources increased, the thin months tended to decrease. An assessment of livelihood factors showed that social networks, income diversification, and subsistence food production each contribute to farmers' well-being.Smallholder coffee farmers in Mesoamerica face formidable challenges, including highly variable coffee prices, increasing climate change impacts, and worsening outbreaks of pests and diseases, which contribute to chronic debt and food insecurity. Despite these difficulties, the results of a recent follow-up or longitudinal survey show improvement in key aspects of farmers' livelihoods, though there is an urgent need to continue working with farmers on these issues.The findings point to promising strategies for enhancing livelihoods, including carefully selected crop diversification practices to improve food security; site-specific instead of blanket recommendations for improved agricultural management and livelihood diversification; access to affordable financing and training in financial literacy; and other education and training programs for farmers."}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"0941486ea83d4e046809455d3ed6a6d7","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/061a91cc-da73-45bf-be65-1db22f4fb0d9/retrieve"},"pageCount":24,"title":"Measuring household legume cultivation intensity in Sub-Saharan Africa","keywords":["Legume adoption","ecological intensification","sub-Saharan Africa","beta regression"],"chapters":[{"head":"Introduction","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":153,"text":"The population of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is currently estimated to be over 1 billion and this is expected to continue to increase over the next few decades. As countries in SSA develop there will be sustained pressures on food production related to urbanisation and population growth (Calderon et al., 2019). Over the last decade there has been evidence of growing commercialisation occurring in the farming landscape (Hall et al., 2017). SSA is still mostly populated by smallholder farms, with an average area of around 2 ha per household (Moyo, 2016). In general, farms rely on natural rainfall and are managed under customary ownerships (Biazin et al., 2012;Yang et al., 2015). Productivity rates remain low (Rosegrant et al., 2009), tempered by increased frequency of drought, lack of institutional support and market development, as well as erratic policy towards the rural poor and food security (Mugunieri and Omiti, 2007;Goyal and Nash, 2017;Takeshima et al., 2020)."},{"index":2,"size":174,"text":"To improve the food security status of smallholder farms land expansion or intensification of these farming systems has been recommended (Descheemaeker et al., 2016;Vanlauwe et al., 2014;2019;Jindo et al., 2020). As SSA has constraints in relation to chemical or machinery inputs, ecological intensification (EI) may be seen as a sustainable support pathway for developing these small farms (Rusinamhodzi et al., 2012;Belmain et al., 2013;Vanlauwe et al., 2013). Moreover, Tittonell and Giller (2013) argued that EI has seldom been addressed in the context of smallholder farming systems of rural Africa. One aspect of this is the difficulty in quantifying and benchmarking progress towards EI due to limits in data availability (Barnes and Thomson, 2014;Jayne et al., 2018). Legumes address ecological as well as social-cultural aspects of farming (Altieri and Nicholls, 2012;Wezel et al., 2015;Altieri et al., 2017). The multiple uses provided from legumes are consequently a platform for supporting both crop and livestock systems (Kermah et al., 2018;Giller and Cadisch, 1995;Muoni et al., 2019;Foyer et al., 2019;Day, 2013;Watson et al., 2017;Edelman and Colt, 2016;Simbaya, 2002)."},{"index":3,"size":66,"text":"Although there are multiple benefits from integrating legumes within these smallholder farms Foyer et al. (2016) argued that legume production has declined globally since the 1960s due to the release of agro-chemical fertilisers. More recently, Vanlauwe et al. (2019) found, using FAO data covering 1980 to 2016, that for SSA the proportion of cropland under legumes has only slightly, yet erratically, increased from 12 to 16%."},{"index":4,"size":216,"text":"Legumes have a long history of intervention in SSA which are aimed at integrating and increasing their use within these farming systems (Wittwer et al., 2017;Vanlauwe et al., 2019). Past interventions at a local or international level, providing genetic material, information and peer support have also led to signals on how legumes could be sustained within SSA farming systems (Benzer-Kerr, 2007;Farrow et al., 2019) and leads to the support of examining socio-cultural factors around why farmers do not grow legumes (Ojiem et al. 2006). Moreover, a further tranche of literature has focused on the enabling institutional structures needed to increase uptake, such as legume seed supply chains (Sperling et al., 2020) and end markets for legume products (Mulder, 2018;Snapp et al., 2019). In addition, the provision of information, and the integration with local knowledge around legumes is also an identified weakness (Mulder, 2018;Atlin et al., 2019). Amongst these are also household factors which generate mixed results and are site specific, specifically gender and age categories (Chianu et al., 2011). However, whilst a number of reviews have focused on these institutional and eco-zone factors, farmer motivation and personal factors has been relatively underexplored in past research, though some have focused on cropping risk with legumes, finding theses to be significant (Apata et al., 2009;Meijer et al., 2015)."},{"index":5,"size":201,"text":"The majority of crop adoption studies have taken an over simplified approach to the management decision (Jones-Garcia and Krishna, 2021). Generally, crop adoption, including legumes and conservation practices , are handled as binary decisions (Wauters & Mathijs, 2014;Akudugu, Guo & Dadzie, 2012;Mulder, 2018). There are only a few studies which have applied more complex models. Ghadem et al. (2005) and Kassie et al. (2013a) applied an ordered model to include the degree by which cropping practices are adopted, or models which account for joint related decision-making across practices (Teklewold et al., 2013;Kassie et al., 2013b). Analysis of the intensity of activiy has tended to focus on the adoption of sets of discrete practices which could infer some level of intensification (Kassie et al., 2015;Ndiritu et al., 2014). However, intensity itself suggest an increasing proportion of activity. Hence, a framework which examines adoption as a continuous, as oppose to a discrete, variable would seem more appropriate as we focus on a particular practice, namely increased uptake of legumes at farm level. Examination of continuous data allows us to understand the variance between farms and agro-ecological zones at a more granular level compared to discrete packages of practices adopted by the farm household."},{"index":6,"size":118,"text":"Accordingly, this paper develops a framework for understanding the range of institutional, climatic, economic and personal factors behind legume cultivation. We apply this through an indicator of household legume cultivation, which relates to the proportion of land cropped under legumes relative to the whole farm area (Marinus et al., 2018). We then explore the relationship between our framework and this intensity variable utilising a bespoke household survey conducted within 8 sites across Kenya and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Further academic insights emerge from the adoption of a beta regression framework which, to date, has not been applied to the issue of intensification of agricultural practices globally, and is appropriate when applying to proportionate land data."},{"index":7,"size":64,"text":"The paper is set out as follows. The next section describes the data collection and identification of key variables to derive intensity as well as to decompose these varying intensities. Then the beta regression framework is described and this is followed by a discussion of results and how they compare with past studies on legume intensification. Finally, a discussion and policy section is included."}]},{"head":"Materials and Methods","index":2,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Sites","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":13,"text":"Data were collected in Western Kenya and eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo."}]},{"head":"Democratic Republic of the Congo:","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":134,"text":"The sites were Bushumba (Mulengeza and Bushumba Center) in Kabare territory and Mushinga (Madaka and Luduha) in Walungu territory, all located in the province of South Kivu. The sites receive rainfall in a bimodal pattern (1100 -2700 mm per annum) and the annual average temperature is between 18 and 21ºC. The dominating soils are Umbric Ferrasols (Jones et al., 2013). Mixed crop-livestock farming is dominant in the areas although most farmers have small livestock units and small land holdings. Crops grown include cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz.), common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) usually planted with first effective rains. Land preparation and weed management are practiced using ox-drawn mouldboard plough or hand hoes. Livestock owned include cattle, goats, sheep, guinea pigs and chickens. In total 110 responses were returned from DRC."},{"index":2,"size":123,"text":"Western Kenya: The sites are located in Migori (Rongo and Suna West) and Kisii (Nyaribari Chache and Kitutu Chache) Counties which receive 1000-1600 mm per annum in a bimodal pattern. The altitude of both counties lies between 1200 and 2000 m above sea level. Most farmers grow crops in both seasons and own small parcels of land. All sites are dominated by Acrisols, except for Suna West with Planosols (Jones et al., 2013). Annual average temperature is about 20ºC. Most crops, including maize, sugarcane, cassava, common bean and tea, are established after receiving the first effective rains in each cropping season. Land preparation, weed management and livestock ownership is similar to the DRC sites. In total 164 responses were returned from Western Kenya. "}]},{"head":"Data Collection","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":78,"text":"A sampling frame was developed based on the LegumeCHOICE sampling protocols (see Duncan et al., 2016). The sample consisted of equal numbers of farmers who were in the LegumeCHOICE project (LC), which ran from 2014 to 2017, and those who were at least 5 km away from the LC farmers at a random walk. Selection criteria for farmers outside LC project was; a) lack of awareness about LC, b) only household heads and c) farmers willingness to participate."},{"index":2,"size":216,"text":"A structured household questionnaire was used for data collection covering i) detailed background information on the farm, ii) overall farm, livestock and cropping plans, iii) detailed current use of legumes, iv) influences on use of legumes, and v) knowledge and perceptions on legumes. The questionairre and engagement protocol were approved through SLU's social science ethics committee. The questionnaire was piloted at three field sites in Kenya (Rongo, Kitutu Chache and Nyaribari Chache) with 15 farmers. Enumerators were then trained on how to use the survey instrument before interviews commenced. All enumerators were either research technicians or interns at the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA) in DRC, the Kenya Agriculture and Livestock Research Institute (KALRO) in Kenya. In each country, the same enumerators participated at all sites. Data were recorded on paper survey forms by enumerators. The interviews were carried out in Luo, Kisii, Swahili, Mashi or French languages and the results were translated into English. Farmers were given a chance to consult other family members who were present during the interviews and this level of consultation was recorded as part of the data collection exercise. In total this returned a response of 274 completed surveys. Data were checked with enumerators and cleaned of obvious outliers. These were then analyzed using STATA 16.0 (Stata Corp., 2019)."}]},{"head":"Measuring Household Legume Cultivation","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":102,"text":"Within the technology adoption literature legumes, and conservation practices generally, are handled as binary decisions (Wauters & Mathijs, 2014;Akudugu et al., 2012;Mulder, 2018). This is recognised in recent literature with the application of ordered models, thus indicating degrees of adoption of practices (Ghadem et al., 2005;Kassie et al., 2013a), or models accounting for related decision-making across practices (Teklewold et al., 2013;Kassie et al., 2013b). Understanding intensity of practice has tended to focus on the adoption of sets of discrete practices which could infer some level of intensification (Kassie et al., 2015;Ndiritu et al., 2014). However, intensity itself infers increasing proportions of activity."},{"index":2,"size":78,"text":"Hence, a framework which examines adoption as a continuous variable would seem more appropriate as we focus on a particular practice, namely increased cultivation of legumes at farm household level. Examination of continuous data allows us to understand the variances between farms and agro-ecological zones at a more granular level, as the division into discrete packages of practices observed in past studies does not accommodate the relative intensity at which this practice is adopted by the farm household."},{"index":3,"size":97,"text":"Within the planning of a cropping system, legumes can play a primary or a secondary role, the latter in terms of intercropping with starchy staples, such as maize, providing a second crop. Farmers were asked to identify their crops grown and the area of each crop grown over two seasons for ease of recall. Accordingly we measure household legume cultivation as a ratio of legume plot area, where I is the intensity for farm i, composed of the sum of n areas under legumes (L), over the sum of the m areas of total farm area (A)."},{"index":4,"size":139,"text":"Where \uD835\uDC3F \uD835\uDC56 ∈ \uD835\uDC34 \uD835\uDC56 \uD835\uDC4E\uD835\uDC5B\uD835\uDC51 \uD835\uDC3C \uD835\uDC56 > 0 \uD835\uDC4E\uD835\uDC5B\uD835\uDC51 < 1 This indicates the relative proportion of legume cultivation between each farm. As the beta regression model takes proportionate data then the dependant variable simply measures relative positions of each farm in terms of their intensity. Legumes were identified on the questionnaire using common identifiers such as 'beans' or 'common beans', 'soybeans', 'green grams' and 'groundnuts'. Figure 2 shows the distribution of intensity by frequency, alongside per site. This shows a high early skew and indicates that the majority of households have intensities of less than 0.2, equating to 20% HLC over two seasons. In addition, the highest intensities emerge within Kenya. However, it is notable that there are within site variances across all sites, indicating the relevance of farm level factors driving the HLC metric."}]},{"head":"Figure 2. Household legume cultivation index showing a) frequencies with normal-density plot, b) boxplots showing ranges per country","index":7,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Explanatory variables","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":103,"text":"A number of categories of external and internal factors have been proposed for understanding uptake of legumes. Ojiem et al. (2006) categorised these as i) socio-cultural factors, ii) agro-ecological factors, and iii) socio-economic factors, with the third category including institutional context. In a meta-analysis of uptake of grain legumes, Mulder (2018) elaborated these categories further to specify market factors, namely i) distance to market, ii) household factors, iii) policy and institutional levels, which includes access to extension, and iv) economic factors, around income and education. We add to this framework by including personal motives. These are shown in Figure 3 and described below."}]},{"head":"Figure 3. Conceptual Framework for understanding household legume cultivation drivers","index":9,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Climatic Conditions","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":106,"text":"As for all staple crops, the influence of climatic conditions has been found to be an important influence on the adoption of legumes (Craufurd et al., 1998;Shiferaw et al., 2014;Rippke et al., 2016). Given the reliance on rain-fed practices the incidence of drought or heat stress, as well as floods, is likely to affect decisions around cropping portfolios (Niles et al., 2016;Ramirez-Villegas et al., 2012;Beebe et al., 2014;Daryanto et al., 2015). Adaptation towards these climatic effects can emerge from support towards farm capital improvements, e.g. for agro-chemical use, or through seeds which are more heat tolerant (Ramirez-Villegas et al., 2012;Feola et al., 2014;Acevedo et al., 2016)."}]},{"head":"Biophysical Conditions","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":80,"text":"Farrow et al. (2019) identified biophysical conditions as a major effect on adoption of legumes. The agro-ecological zone or the response to specific problems within that region are common examples of factors influencing legume uptake. Muoni et al. (2020) identified intercrops with maize and common bean helped reduce soil erosion. The structural soil enhancing properties of legumes (Jian et al., 2020;Vanlauwe et al., 2019) should make them a key driver for the uptake of legumes to tackle identified soil problems."}]},{"head":"Household Conditions","index":12,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":72,"text":"Standard drivers of uptake of technologies tend to revolve around the effect of age or gender, generally finding mixed effects dependant on the practice applied (Arslan et al., 2014;Barnabas et al. 2018;Ronner et al., 2018). Moreover, knowledge of the legumes themselves, although an aspect of the institutional conditions of that region, are also a driver to understanding the level of uptake across farmers between regions (Muoni et al., 2019;Farrow et al., 2019)."},{"index":2,"size":166,"text":"Income conditions have an effect on the decision to intensify with legumes with higher incomes allowing access to capital and also more legume varieties. Ronner et al. (2018) found poorer farmers to be more likely to cultivate climbing beans due to restricted options through low income. Shelton et al. (2005) also identified profitability to be a key driver of uptake of legumes. Income is a facet of farming assets, as it supports investment into farm capital, such as increasing land area. Larger farms are less likely to grow legumes intensively, as they begin to commercialise, preferring to only include legumes as part of their crop and animal diversification planning (Sharp et al., 2007;Wiggins et al., 2012). Moreover Bamire et al. (2002) and Ajewole (2010) found that producers with more land are less likely to invest in soil fertility improvements. Hence, the opportunity costs of household labour, compared to hired labour, and the complexities of cropping legumes tends to make this more attractive to small scale households."},{"index":3,"size":64,"text":"Farmer motivation and objectives has been, relative to these other factors, underexplored in past research. A small number of studies have examined perceptions towards risk and profit, finding them to be significant in terms of dictating decisions over whether to crop legumes, as well as overall diversification of cropping plans (Apata et al., 2009;Meijer et al., 2015;Omotilewa et al., 2016;Brush, 2008;Antwi-Agyei et al., 2014)."}]},{"head":"Institutional Factors","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":157,"text":"Knowledge of the practices around legumes have been found to be a significant driver of the uptake of legumes generally, and the type of legume cropped (Muoni et al., 2019;Farrow et al., 2019). Provision of that knowledge emerges from multiple sources and a common driver of uptake explored in past studies is access to information support networks. These are through both informal means, such as peer-to-peer knowledge exchange, and access to extension networks and farmer co-operatives, which have been found to be important (Waldman et. al., 2016;Muoni et al., 2019). Given the poor reach of public extension services in many developing countries development projects are often important means of transferring and exchanging knowledge around legume related topics to farmers. This relationship usually consists of establishing test sites, the free provision of seeds and advice on the biophysical or community-based issues around legume production (Casley and Lury, 1982;Adams and Graham, 1981;Davis, 2008;Ngwira et al., 2014;Woomer et al., 2014)."},{"index":2,"size":66,"text":"Common communication pathways within the agricultural technology sector have been found to be positively related to adoption. Although ICT is developing across regions in SSA, and rural mobile phone ownership is becoming standard in certain countries (Sennuga et al., 2020), traditional approaches such as radio and newspapers are still important mechanisms for transfer of information around farming practice (Meijer et al., 2015;Aker, 2011;Hudson et al., 2017)."},{"index":3,"size":151,"text":"Access to seeds as well as markets for sale of leguminous products have been found to be important for driving adoption. In the case of input markets, access is defined by the seed supply chain and provision of varieties available, but also access to capital which allows farmers to secure access to improved seeds (Poulton et al., 2006;Croft et al.,2018;Farrow et al., 2019). Moreover, formal markets drive demand for the outputs from legumes. Efficiently functioning markets are cornerstone for economic growth (Barrett and Mutambatsere, 2008;Oduol et al., 2017;Barrett et al., 2017) and legumes serve multiple markets -from provision of dried beans to supporting animal production, as well as medicinal products from tree legumes. Enabling these markets, helps to drive uptake of legume production (Ndambiri et al., 2013;Tesfaye and Seifu, 2016). These main variables are shown in Table 2, identifying the type of variable and the categories or ranges of value taken. "}]},{"head":"Estimation Approach","index":14,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":146,"text":"Our index of household legume cultivation is unit interval data as it is bounded between 0 and 1. A standard linear regression approach, with the dependant variable transformed, does not accurately reflect unit interval data because, firstly these data are typically heteroskedastic, as the variance will approach zero as the mean approaches either 0 or 1 (Ferrari and Cribari-Neto, 2004) Moreover, our data are generally asymmetric and would violate assumptions around normality. Beta regression allows more flexibility when distributions are non-normal and have proven efficient at estimating a range of observed phenomena (Paolini et al., 2001). The beta regression parameterises densities within a dependant variable as it allows for flexibility in the mean and related parameters. Unlike linear regression, beta regression requires two link functions, one to link explanatory variables to the mean, and another to link to the 'precision parameters' within the distribution (Equation 2):"},{"index":2,"size":72,"text":"Where Y is between > 0 and < 1, f is a function explaining a vector of x variables to changes in the dependant variable (Y). Within this h explains the changes in the mean of Y, and g explains the changes in precision of Y. The two functions can accommodate different explanatory variables, though most studies apply the same vector of variables to explain both the variance and precision of Y."},{"index":3,"size":70,"text":"We apply the beta regression formulation above using STATA 16 (Stata Corp, 2019) with standard errors clustered by country, to adjust for country-level effects. The choice of logit link function was identified through minimisation of the BIC values from the maximum likelihood approach. All categorical and binary variables were ordered from minimum to maximum to show relative degrees of effect and reference values reflected base values for the categorical variables."}]},{"head":"Results","index":15,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":221,"text":"The results of the Beta regression are presented in Table 2. The regression fits well with a reasonable R 2 of 0.40 and most variables indicating a significant effect at p<0.001. The Wald statistic is significant, indicating that the fitted model exceeds the null model for explaining the dependant variables. Results are presented as marginal effects, along with their significance levels and standard errors. Marginal effects show the effect of a 1% increase in each variable, all other variables remaining unchanged, for continuous variables or a discrete change from 0 to 1 for categorical variables. Site variables are a means to condition for local effects and are all strongly significant. These are measured relative to the site with the lowest average HLC, in this case Madaka in the DRC. At a country level sites within DRC have mostly lower marginal estimates and there are variances within countries. Bushumba in DRC and Suna West in Kenya, have the highest predicted probabilities of 13.8% to 18% compared to Madaka respectively. This means these sites are much more likely to have higher HLC's compared to Madaka. Against the reference of no dry spells it seems that those who experience more frequent long dry spells are more likely to grow more legumes, possibly as a way to mitigate some of the risks in weather variance."},{"index":2,"size":100,"text":"Given the structural change expected within agriculture, for farms consolidating to grow bigger an increase of 1% in area leads to a -1.5% predicted probability on household legume cultivation. This may indicate that as farms increase in farm size they are likely to grow crops for more accessible markets, rather than legumes. The relationship between size and intensity is shown in Figure 4. These are presented as predicted probabilities across the range of farm sizes observed in the survey. These show a downward effect and indicate that as the farm grows in size, the probability of household legume cultivation decreases."}]},{"head":"Figure 4. Predicted probabilities of farm area variable","index":16,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":40,"text":"Livestock density is a positive predictor, which would infer the importance of legumes as an animal input to support livestock feed. Effectively a 1% increase in animal density tends to lead to a 3.4% increase in the planting of legumes."},{"index":2,"size":150,"text":"Age is positively associated, though extremely marginal in terms of explaining HLC. This would infer that as farmers become older there is a slightly higher predicted probability that they will adopt more legumes within the farm. Gender is also a positive predictor, indicating that female farmers are 2.3% more likely to adopt legumes than males. Gender also has mixed effects in past literature on adoption of specific varieties, but is related to social and institutional conditions within the region of study. There is also a desire for the fertility building functions of legumes, as a 1% increase in farmers rating this as a preferred function of legumes would affect the predicated probability of legume uptake by 6.9%. Hence legumes are strongly seen, by farmers who adopt more of them within the farm, as a means to provide support for soil functions both directly, and indirectly, through the provision of feed."},{"index":3,"size":100,"text":"The association between income and household legume cultivation is slightly positive but the effect is small. However, a stronger negative effect emerges from adoption of commercial objectives. Specifically, a 1% increase in preference for a commercialisation objective for the farm leads to a -2.4% change in household legume cultivation. This may be related to the effect of selling to market which is insignificant. This may imply that farmers are ranking the nutrition and supporting functions of legumes above those of commercial selling, but also, given the diversity of sites covered, may simply indicate no access to nearby markets for selling."},{"index":4,"size":151,"text":"The use of official information sources shows mostly negative, or insignificant, relationships with HLC. Where significant, the use of newspapers and extension information leads to less intensive use of legumes. Conversely the targeted approach of past projects has a positive effect. A farmer who has engaged in past legume programmes is 0.7% more likely to intensify legume cultivation on the farm, compared to a farmer who has not engaged in these programmes. A test of the conditional mean of household legume cultivation for those in and out of past projects showed a significant positive difference (z = 11.17, p > z 0.001). This tends to indicate that the most effective legume information emerges from focused projects on legumes, which may mostly emerge from external funding. These interventions are more targeted than other information sources, both in terms of the advice given, but also the facilitation and support for growing these crops."}]},{"head":"Discussion","index":17,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":106,"text":"Within the scientific community, legumes have been seen as a high priority intervention for Sub-Saharan Africa (Kerr et al., 2007). The long-term sustainability of these interventions must be disputed given only slight increases in legume area observed over the last 20 years (Vanlauwe et al., 2019). Nevertheless, as legumes provide support for some of the continent's biggest farming challenges, namely poor soil quality, limited access to chemical inputs and poor nutrition, legumes need to be an attractive option for the cropping portfolio of smallholder farmers in the coming decades. This is more pertinent as farms in SSA are under pressure to change (Abraham and Pingali, 2020)."},{"index":2,"size":60,"text":"Intensity of legume cultivation varies both across and within the study sites here. Whilst local site conditions can explain variances in uptake, more subtle differences emerge that are a confluence of other enablers and constraints. Hence, this calls for a range of targeted institutional improvements to support increased uptake, including more knowledge provision and the development of markets for legumes."},{"index":3,"size":178,"text":"A number of studies have argued that legumes provide a way to support incomes (Rao and Mathuva, 2000;Franke et al., 2014), and that increased incomes allows access to higher yielding seed (Farrow et al., 2019). The association between income and intensity of legume cultivation was found to be slightly positive but the effect is small. However, preferences for commercialisation objectives for the smallholder were found to be negatively related to legume cultivation. Most development literature supports enabling market access and value chain development as key to supporting income growth, however a number recognise the lack of formal markets for legume products to achieve that goal (Zeller et al., 1998;Ojiewo et al., 2015;Trieneken, 2011;Foyer et al., 2016). Where legumes seem to differ from other sustainable interventions may be in their cultural and historic standing, but this is complicated by the multiplicity of markets for the products of legumes for food and feed. Hence it would seem a key barrier is on evolving markets for generating value added from legumes (Mabhaudhi et al., 2017;Rubyogo et al., 2019;Dawson et al., 2019)."},{"index":4,"size":163,"text":"In relation to this farm size was found to have a negative effect on household legume cultivation. The desire for farms to increase in size is generally led by a more commercial outlook and the negative relationship may also reflect the lack of markets for selling legumes compared to common staples (Atlin et al., 2019). This is also an artefact of where the farms are situated and the level by which markets exist for legumes, compared to common staple, crops. Hall et al., (2017) identifies three pathways for the commercialisation of smallholder farmers, one of which revolves around growing from small to medium scale commercial farming areas. To enable this requires increased access not just to land, but inputs and knowledge, as well as capital to support labour replacement. This is a major constraint for the majority of farmers but Poole et al. (2013) also suggest that the commercialisation narrative should not be assumed within a rural sector more concerned with food security."},{"index":5,"size":27,"text":"The farmers participating within this study tend to validate this view as they show a desire for self-sufficiency from legumes to support other functions on the farm."},{"index":6,"size":129,"text":"The most effective legume information evolved from focused interventions. These emerge from externally funded projects focused wholly or in part on increasing intensity of legume cultivation. These interventions are more targeted but also offer the enabling conditions to increase legume cultivation, such as seeds and support for managing these crops. Accordingly, this may offer a bleak assessment for long-term adoption as once these projects finish there is little to suggest continuation of practice. Moreover, farmers have limited access to structures, such as advice and plant breeding services that support new varietal adoption of legumes within these countries (Atlin et al., 2019). This seems to infer local institutions promoting staple cash crops rather than legumes which need to be recognised for co-developing and implementing interventions (Bezner Kerr et al., 2007)."},{"index":7,"size":89,"text":"Supporting co-creation and embedding social norms around legumes may lead to support for long-term sustainability of projects. This would also make them an attractive and costeffective intervention for future investment from donor governments experiencing pressures on overseas public expenditure 1 . Whilst there are economic drivers, such as the further development of legume-based value chains, most behavioural studies find a mix of economic and environmental goals within farmer practices (Wilson and Hart, 2000) and legumes may be grown as they appeal to the farmers, rather than any profit-seeking motive."},{"index":8,"size":58,"text":"Their function in spreading risk through diversity of cropping and also by breaking pest cycles adds to the attractiveness of legumes. Consequently, promoting a more ecological ethos may be a route to engagement of farmers for long-term sustainable development, especially as the benefits that legumes offer will support goals for individual farmers but also society as a whole."},{"index":9,"size":118,"text":"Targeting on gender and age may have an effect on uptake but these have been mixed on the uptake of crops and crops mixtures and this may explain the very marginal effect of age on the decision to intensify legume cultivation (Saka et al., 2004;Katungi et al., 2017). Moreover, whilst we find a positive effect for gender, this too has had mixed effects in past studies. Ronner et al. (2018) found a positive gender effect for adoption of practices around climbing bean cultivation in Uganda. Muoni et al. (2019) also found a similar positive effect of gender in Kenya. However, Larochelle et al. (2016) could find no gender differences in uptake of improved bean varieties in Rwandan agriculture."},{"index":10,"size":122,"text":"Climatic factors will become more acute in these regions (Cooper et al, 2008;Connolly-Boutin and Smit, 2016) and dry spells, as a proxy for these climatic effects, are a driver of intensity of cultivation. Stevenson et al. (2014) found that farmers perceive legumes as part of a potential risk mitigation portfolio when rainfall is erratic. In terms of biophysical constraints and drivers, livestock density has a positive effect which would infer the importance of legumes as low-cost feed to support livestock production (Atnaf et al., 2015;Tothill, 1986;Odendo et al., 2011). Similarly, those who experienced soil problems are more likely to intensify their legume cultivation, which agrees with several studies which identified this as a source of uptake (Snapp et al., 2002;Bezner Kerr, 2005)."}]},{"head":"Conclusions","index":18,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":84,"text":"Household legume cultivation is a useful metric for measuring progress towards ecological intensification in low income countries. By quantifying the level of legume cultivation intensity at a micro level, we can explore the extent to which this technology is adopted onfarm and the highly nuanced nature of the differences between farms adopting these technologies. It provides a basis for regional benchmarks but also allows, through its decomposition, understanding of the magnitude of institutional, climatic and personal drivers behind the choice to cultivate more legumes."},{"index":2,"size":141,"text":"The opportunity to compose such an indicator comes from bespoke field data offering detail on leguminous crops, alongside other activities. Household surveys, such as those provided by the Living Standards Measurement Systems-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (see for example Leigh Anderson et al., 2017) may go some way to replicating this study. Given their regional spread these surveys could provide benchmarks of HLC over time, as well as quantification of the success of particular interventions towards legumes. Due to financial constraints these surveys are somewhat limited in time frame and region, but also in the number of crops recorded (Dawson et al., 2018). Current limited data collection further complicates knowledge of progress towards ecological intensification overall. Overcoming these constraints may support a more balanced assessment of how we can reach ecological intensification for the continent (Smith et al., 2017;Jayne et al., 2019)."},{"index":3,"size":85,"text":"What emerges acutely from this, and related studies, is the lack of market opportunities for legume products with SSA but also that farmers with higher legume cultivation intensities are less driven by commercial growth. As a consequence these farmers mostly use legumes for providing home nutrition or supporting services around fertility and feed. Accordingly, the development of commercial opportunities for legume products, increasing market access and promotion of legume consumption within growing urban centres should be considered a prime aspect of any future legume strategy."}]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 1 . Figure 1. Data collection sites across Kenya and the DRC "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"Table 1 . Main Explanatory Variables  Category of Driver Name of Variable Description of Variable Category of DriverName of VariableDescription of Variable   A dummy variable representing each of the 8 sites (Bushumba, A dummy variable representing each of the 8 sites (Bushumba,  Region Kitutu Chache North, Luduha, Madaka, Mulengeza, Nyaribari RegionKitutu Chache North, Luduha, Madaka, Mulengeza, Nyaribari   Chache, Rongo, Suna West) Chache, Rongo, Suna West) Climatic Long dry spell Frequency A categorical variable indicating the number of long dry spells experienced in the year (0. None, 1. Once a year, 2. Twice a year 3. More than twice a year) ClimaticLong dry spell FrequencyA categorical variable indicating the number of long dry spells experienced in the year (0. None, 1. Once a year, 2. Twice a year 3. More than twice a year) Biophysical Soil Problems A binary variable indicating whether the farm has noticeable erosion problems (0. No, 1. Yes) BiophysicalSoil ProblemsA binary variable indicating whether the farm has noticeable erosion problems (0. No, 1. Yes)  Farm Size A continuous variable indicating the farm size in ha (average = 6.65 +/-2.8 acres) Farm SizeA continuous variable indicating the farm size in ha (average = 6.65 +/-2.8 acres)  Fertility ranking A continuous variable normalised between 0-1 indicating farmer preference for the fertility function for legumes (average 0.440 +/-0.204 Fertility rankingA continuous variable normalised between 0-1 indicating farmer preference for the fertility function for legumes (average 0.440 +/-0.204  Livestock Density The ratio of livestock units to land. Tropical Livestock units are composed of weighted units for cattle (0.7 LU), sheep and goats (0.1 LU) (Average= 0.24 +/-0.30) Livestock DensityThe ratio of livestock units to land. Tropical Livestock units are composed of weighted units for cattle (0.7 LU), sheep and goats (0.1 LU) (Average= 0.24 +/-0.30) Household Age A continuous variable indicating the main farmer age in years (Average = 47 +/-15 years) HouseholdAgeA continuous variable indicating the main farmer age in years (Average = 47 +/-15 years)  Gender A binary variable indicating the gender of the main farm decision maker (0. Male, 1. Female) GenderA binary variable indicating the gender of the main farm decision maker (0. Male, 1. Female)  Commercial Objective A binary variable, indicating farmer preference for commercialisation as a priority from the legumes grown, (0. No, 1. Yes) Commercial ObjectiveA binary variable, indicating farmer preference for commercialisation as a priority from the legumes grown, (0. No, 1. Yes)  Income A continuous variable indicating annual income for the farm based on local currency IncomeA continuous variable indicating annual income for the farm based on local currency   A set of dummy variables indicating the use of each A set of dummy variables indicating the use of each Institutional Source of Information information source they use frequently for farming advice (Use information from the radio; Use information from newspapers; Use information from extension organisations; Use information InstitutionalSource of Informationinformation source they use frequently for farming advice (Use information from the radio; Use information from newspapers; Use information from extension organisations; Use information   from farmers) from farmers)  Sell to Market A binary variable indicating whether they sell produce to the market (0. Do not sell at market, 1. Sell at market) Sell to MarketA binary variable indicating whether they sell produce to the market (0. Do not sell at market, 1. Sell at market)   A binary variable indicating whether they have been involved A binary variable indicating whether they have been involved  Past Project in past projects around legume adoption over the last 5 years Past Projectin past projects around legume adoption over the last 5 years   (0. No involvement, 1. Involved with legume project) (0. No involvement, 1. Involved with legume project)  "},{"text":"Table 2 . Results of Beta regression on household legume cultivation, marginal effects  Margins SE MarginsSE  "}],"sieverID":"b58b52e4-02be-441f-9201-d668ab2e8ae0","abstract":"Legumes form part of an ecological based solution to intensification in areas with limited access to external inputs or to support increased efficiency of available fertiliser nutrients. Despite a number of decades of intervention, uptake of legumes has been slow within smallholder farming systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper explores the drivers behind adoption of legumes by developing an indicator of household legume cultivation (HLC) from a bespoke survey of 274 small-scale farm households in Kenya and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.We decompose this indicator using a beta regression framework and find a range of intensities across sites and farms, indicating limited influence of agro-ecological zones and formal institutions on uptake. There was some commonality in drivers across sites, though age, income and gender have positive but very marginal effects. Farm households with more intense legume cultivation were less driven by commercial growth objectives and have limited access to markets. There was little interest in expanding farm area which reflects the lack of assets available to these farmers and, as a consequence, promotes the use of legumes in providing home nutrition, or supporting farm fertility and provision of livestock feed.Further development of this HLC metric would be enabled by consistent data gathering across regions, or at least equally detailed studies of legume uptake. Overcoming constraints to increasing use of legumes should be a significant component of local and international agricultural intervention as countries experience increasing environmental and social pressures and the need to commercialise as farming develops."}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"096bc625529e7cf511a1c90f2344051e","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/Working_Papers/working/WOR13.pdf"},"pageCount":42,"title":"","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"SUMMARY","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":45,"text":"The Farmer Managed Irrigation Project in Sindh under the National Drainage Program selected three distributaries on which Farmer Organizations were created. The International Water Management Institute took responsibility of this pilot project, which addresses the issue of remodeling of outlets to achieve equitable water distribution."},{"index":2,"size":83,"text":"Field studies revealed that there was considerable inequity in water distribution both at the head of secondary canals and between watercourses along each canal. Following discussions about what design discharge should be selected for each of the pilot canals the crosssections of secondary canals and the elevation and dimension of each watercourse outlet were calculated. Revised discharges were calculated on the assumption that each canal would receive the same average discharge as had been measured in the first phase of the pilot project."},{"index":3,"size":71,"text":"Recommendations are made for the implementation of a remodeling program that fully involves the Farmer Organizations. They should participate in the design of the outlets, help in construction of canals and outlets, participate in the commissioning of the canal to check that actual discharges meet the designed discharges, and undertake a program of monitoring for equitable water distribution. This process has to be undertaken jointly with the Area Water Board staff."}]},{"head":"RATIONALE FOR REMODELING OUTLETS ON PILOT DISTRIBUTARIES","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":13,"text":"The Farmer Managed Irrigation Project in Sindh Province, Pakistan has two major objectives:"},{"index":2,"size":171,"text":"• To test the viability of farmer's organizations in managing distributaries, minors and Watercourses so that more efficient and equitable allocation of water can be achieved; • To make recommendations on future extensions from the results of the pilot projects in the remainder of Sindh The International Water Management Institute (IWMI)1 has been involved in this program since July 1995, first in conjunction with the Department of Agricultural Engineering and Water Management of the Government of Sindh and since April 1999 with the Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority (SIDA). IWMI took responsibility to help establish farmer organizations on three pilot distributaries that assessed whether the design of the distributaries and their outlets was suitable to achieve proper sharing of water among all members of the organization. This is the first effort in Sindh to transfer responsibility for water allocation and distribution among farmers at secondary canal level. Previously farmers were only responsible for implementing warabandi water turns at watercourse level. There are two main reasons why remodeling of outlets is necessary:"},{"index":3,"size":42,"text":"• The transfer occurred at the same time as the implementation of the Left Bank Outfall Drain program (LBOD) which involved redesign of some main canals and associated secondary canals to accommodate changes in water allocation through improved surface and subsurface drainage."},{"index":4,"size":10,"text":"1 Formerly known as the International Irrigation Management Institute (IIMI)"},{"index":5,"size":99,"text":"• All secondary canals, whether remodeled or not, are expected to receive an equal share of water delivered into the canal system which exceeds the official design discharge, and must be able to share this surplus equitably. The standard practice in Sindh is to design canals so that they not only distribute water equitably among all watercourses but are also in regime. This means that no net scouring or sedimentation occurs over the course of a year. The design criteria used to achieve regime are well known and incorporated in the formulae derived by Kennedy (1895) and Lacey (1930)."},{"index":6,"size":53,"text":"Observations from the three pilot distributaries indicated that due to a combination of intentional changes and natural deterioration it was not possible to achieve either equitable water distribution or stable regime conditions. It was therefore agreed that IWMI would undertake an assessment of redesign requirements for SIDA as part of the project commitments."},{"index":7,"size":22,"text":"To undertake this study IWMI undertook a series of activities to provide sufficient information to determine the revised design conditions. These included:"},{"index":8,"size":8,"text":"• Re-surveying the sample canals and outlet structures "}]},{"head":"DESCRIPTION OF THE PILOT DISTRIBUTARIES","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":67,"text":"In consultation with various Departments of the Government of Sindh it was decided to select three pilot distributaries that would represent different conditions encountered elsewhere in the province, and particularly those found elsewhere in the LBOD project area. The three selected distributaries are shown on Figure 1. All three canals are in the command of canals served from the Left Bank of the Indus at Sukkur Barrage."}]},{"head":"a) Bareji Distributary, Mirpurkhas District","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":9,"text":"Bareji Distributary offtakes from Jamrao Canal at RD 408"}]},{"head":"2","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":51,"text":". It was originally designed and commissioned in 1932 to irrigate a command area of approximately 20,000 acres (8,000 hectares) through 31 outlets. The canal was designed according to the standard conditions and criteria in force at that time in Sindh, and had a design discharge of 64.28 cusecs (1.82 m3/sec)."},{"index":2,"size":107,"text":"In 1984 the canal was remodeled because portions of the tail end of the command area were transferred from Bareji Distributary to canals served by Mithrao Canal. A total of seven outlets command area were transferred so that remodeling was required. The new command area was established as 14,531 acres (5,880 ha) served by 24 outlets. As a result of these changes the length of the distributary was reduced from 62,250 feet (18,978 m) to 39,300 feet (11,981 m) and the design discharge reduced to 41.0 cusecs (1.16 m 3 /sec). The design parameters of distributary and its outlets are provided in Annex-I, Tables 1 & 4."},{"index":3,"size":60,"text":"Under the LBOD Project, along with other distributaries of Jamrao Canal, the Bareji Distributary was again remodeled in 1994/95 and a large increase in water allocation was given to significantly increase the discharge capacity of Jamrao Canal. Most canals had their original design discharge doubled or more and Bareji was 2 RD denotes Reduced Distance and equal to 1000 feet."},{"index":4,"size":14,"text":"In Pakistan it is measured in feet from the head of the canal downstream."},{"index":5,"size":39,"text":"no exception: the new design discharge was established as 109 cusecs (3.09 m3/sec). There was no change in the number of outlets or command area, but obviously the capacity of existing outlets was changed to deliver the increased discharge."},{"index":6,"size":52,"text":"During the LBOD remodeling the crosssections and longitudinal section were carefully redesigned to deliver the new design discharge, the details are provided in Annex-I, Table 2. The regulator at the head of Bareji Distributary was rebuilt to carry the new design discharge, new berms and bridges were constructed, and other infrastructure changed."},{"index":7,"size":5,"text":"Individual outlets were not redesigned."},{"index":8,"size":97,"text":"Instead, they were replaced by pre-cast outlet structures that could be modified after installation to have the appropriate width and depth of the orifice or flume. Because the new Jamrao II canal paralleling the original Jamrao canal was not commissioned until early in 2000 the new design discharge could not be delivered anyway, so there was no real pressure to deal with the outlet dimensions during the period of remodeling the distributary. The expectation is that when the new design discharge is delivered then new outlet structures will be sized according to calculations undertaken at that time."},{"index":9,"size":57,"text":"A re-survey of the distributary was made in 1997/98 as part of the IWMI project. The results of this survey show that there are significant deviations from the 1994/95 design drawings, and when the new design discharge is actually delivered significant physical remodeling will be required again. The details of survey are provided in Annex-I, Table 3. "}]},{"head":"b) Heran Distributary, Sanghar District","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":41,"text":"Heran Distributary offtakes from Nara Canal just upstream of the Cross-regulator that controls discharges into Mithrao canal. It therefore has a favored location because there is always sufficient head available at the headgate to permit plenty of water to be delivered."},{"index":2,"size":29,"text":"Like Bareji Distributary, Heran Distributary was constructed in 1932. However, it has not been remodeled since then, and the original design conditions are still in force at present time."},{"index":3,"size":82,"text":"The command area is some 15,400 acres (6,235 ha) served by 24 outlets along Heran Distributary and 7 along Khadwari Minor which offtakes at RD 10. The total length of Heran Distributary is 32,000 feet (9,756 m), while Khadwari Minor is 17,000 feet (5,182 m). The design discharge of Heran Distributary is 62.5 cusecs (1.77 m 3 /s). The designed conditions of Heran Distributary are shown in Annex II, Table 1 and outlet dimension data is shown in Annex II, Table 2."},{"index":4,"size":52,"text":"Conditions in 1997/98 were in many instances significantly different from the original design, again largely due to wear and tear of the canal system and adaptation of outlets to meet higher than anticipated water deliveries. The dimensions measured at the time of the IWMI survey are present in Annex II, Table 1."}]},{"head":"c) Dhoro Naro Minor, Nawabshah District","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":65,"text":"Despite its name, Dhoro Naro Minor is more or less the same size as both the other canals in the pilot project study. It offtakes from Gajrah Branch of Rohri Canal. It is also a tail of Gajrah Branch canal command area, which means that it is close to the tail of the command area of Rohri Canal, and therefore more susceptible to water shortages."},{"index":2,"size":67,"text":"The canal was also designed in 1932 and has not been remodeled since. The original design conditions, which are presented, in Annex III, Tables 1 and 2 are still valid today. The canal has a command area of 13,500 acres (6,235 ha) with 25 outlets. There is no minor branching off from Dhoro Naro. The design discharge for the canal is 52.8 cusecs (1.50 m 3 /sec)."},{"index":3,"size":38,"text":"Just as the other two canals there have been significant changes since the canal was first constructed. The canal condition that existed at the time of the IWMI survey in 1997/98 is shown in Annex III, Table 1."}]},{"head":"HYDRAULIC PERFORMANCE OF THE PILOT DISTRIBUTARIES","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":47,"text":"Part of the IWMI activities in the three pilot distributaries included monitoring of hydraulic performance. This was included in the study to better understand the current water distribution conditions and determine what would be required of farmer organizations to achieve the objective of more equitable water distribution."},{"index":2,"size":60,"text":"Monitoring commenced in April 1997 and has continued on and off until the present time. The main focus has been on daily water delivery at the head of each distributary, daily water levels and discharge readings at new gauges installed at the head and head of the middle and tail reaches of the distributary, and periodic monitoring of watercourse discharges."},{"index":3,"size":83,"text":"A separate study has been conducted on water distribution equity in the pilot project area (Murray-Rust and Lashari, 2000) and so only a summary of the conditions experienced in the three pilot distributaries is presented in this study. The summary only refers to the water conditions experienced close to the time of the surveys of physical conditions. Data for more recent periods is found in the IWMI Quarterly Reports for the Pilot Project (IWMI 1999 and2000) although any significant deviations are reported below."},{"index":4,"size":45,"text":"Each distributary shows that there are significant deviations from designed conditions in terms of discharges actually delivered. Each of the canals studied has a different pattern of water deliveries, and thus may indeed represent the range of conditions experienced in other locations in the province."}]},{"head":"a) Bareji Distributary","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":99,"text":"Water Deliveries to Bareji Distributary show that there is a relatively steady discharge into the canal irrespective of the season or the actual demand for water. The highest discharges occurred in July and August 1997, which is during the period of peak demand for water while there was a slight decrease in discharge during the cooler months of November, December and January. However, each month the actual discharge exceeded design by significant amount, typically in the range of 50-75% above design except for January when demand is low and canal closure occurs (see Figure 2 and Annex-IV, Table 1)."},{"index":2,"size":55,"text":"It is obvious that if actual discharges were so much higher than design discharge then the original outlet design would be unable to pass all of the available water, let alone pass it in an equitable manner. It is clear that numerous modifications to outlets will have to be made to accommodate the higher discharges."},{"index":3,"size":90,"text":"Figure 3 (Annex-IV, Tables 2&3) shows the average Delivery Performance Ratio (DPR) for each watercourse along Bareji Distributary in both Kharif and Rabi seasons: DPR is the ratio of actual discharge to design discharge. So any value greater than 1.0 indicates that actual discharge exceeds the design discharge (Bos et al., 1993). It is obvious from Figure 3 that virtually all of the watercourses get more than their designed discharge, a condition that would be expected if the discharge at the head of the distributary is also greater than design."},{"index":4,"size":56,"text":"However, there is a highly inequitable distribution of water: four watercourses get less than design while four others get more than twice their share. There is no head-tail trend. The pattern observed in Figure 3 probably results from several factors: • some watercourses have a high degree of waterlogging and therefore do not want much water;"},{"index":5,"size":10,"text":"• some outlets have been enlarged to obtain more water;"},{"index":6,"size":27,"text":"• some outlets use the new structures built in 1994/95 which were intended to meet a design discharge of 109 cusecs at the head of the canal;"},{"index":7,"size":44,"text":"• some outlets are higher than the canal bed and must use lifting machines to get water into the watercourse. All in all it is clear that without substantial remodeling of the outlets along Bareji Distributary it is impossible to obtain equitable water distribution."}]},{"head":"Average Monthly Discharge, Bareji Distributary","index":10,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"b) Heran Distributary","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":154,"text":"The pattern of water deliveries into Heran Distributary is rather different to that of Bareji Distributary (Figure 4 and Annex-V, Table 1). During the summer months when demand is high there is a very high level of water delivery, and average actual deliveries exceed design discharge by 175-190%. During the cooler winter months, however, deliveries into the canal are reduced to more or less design levels. This does not imply any water shortage is likely in this period, because demand is very much lower than design discharge in the winter. We can therefore conclude that there is no problem in getting adequate water at Heran Distributary but that the head regulator is managed somewhat more than at Bareji. This is probably because there is waterlogging in parts of Heran Distributary command area, and if too much water is issued into the canal during periods of low demand then the waterlogging will become progressively worse."},{"index":2,"size":72,"text":"A bimodal pattern of water distribution such as that observed at Heran Distributary means it is impossible to expect outlets to have an equitable pattern of water delivery. Figure 5 (Annex-V, Table 2) shows that every watercourse obtains more than design discharge, that there is high variability in DPR values for head end watercourses, and also shows a slight head-tail difference with tail end watercourses only just getting more than design discharge."},{"index":3,"size":62,"text":"However, in general, the pattern of water distribution in Heran Distributary is more equitable than in Bareji, with less difference in the DPRs of the most favored and least favored watercourses. Overall Heran and Bareji both show a pattern of water distribution typical of canals that have plenty of water, such as those of the Lower Swat Canal (Murray-Rust et al., 1996)."},{"index":4,"size":20,"text":"Like Bareji it is clear that remodeling of outlets is required to obtain a more equitable pattern of water distribution.  "}]},{"head":"Average Monthly Discharge, Heran Distributary","index":12,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"c) Dhoro Naro Minor","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":102,"text":"At Dhoro Naro Minor we find a very different water distribution pattern during the measurement period. Firstly, actual discharges are very close to design discharges, and even when they are above design they only exceed the target by approximately 10-25%. It is also noticeable that the canal gets less water when demand is higher, and more water when demand is less (Figure 6 and Annex-VI, Table 1). This appears to be the consequence of Dhoro Naro being towards the tail of Rohri Canal command. When demand is high upstream canals take more water, and there is consequently less available for downstream areas."},{"index":2,"size":124,"text":"When demand in upstream canals declines then more water passes to the tail end areas. Given this pattern of water deliveries in the head we should be able to observe whether design conditions are also met at the watercourse level. Ideally, with head discharges close to design we should also expect to have reasonably equitable water distribution if outlet structures are also close to design conditions. Figure 7 (Annex-VI, Tables 2&3) shows that there is also a highly inequitable pattern of water distribution at Dhoro Naro, with a strong head-tail difference. None of the tail end watercourses obtain design discharge while all head end watercourses exceed it substantially. The inequity is worse in Kharif when water supplies are slightly lower but demand is higher."},{"index":3,"size":37,"text":"The pattern of inequity at Dhoro Naro is much more like the patterns observed in previous studies elsewhere in Pakistan where discharges at the head are at or close to design discharge (Bhutta and Vander Velde, 1994).  "}]},{"head":"Average Monthly Discharge, Dhoro Naro Minor","index":14,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"DETERMINING THE DESIGN PARAMETERS FOR REMODELING","index":15,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":56,"text":"In a new irrigation system it is easy to determine the design parameters. Once the overall water allocation for the system has been determined and the boundaries of each watercourse mapped out, then the design for each watercourse outlet is a simple calculation because the water allocation per 1000 acres is applied equally to all areas."},{"index":2,"size":35,"text":"In remodeling, however, it is impossible to ignore changes that have occurred since the scheme was originally constructed and operated. Typical changes that may need to be taken into account include: • Additional sanctioned outlets."},{"index":3,"size":47,"text":"Further, and much more complicated, is the expectation of water users to obtain at least as much water in the future as they are currently getting, even if current levels of discharge greatly exceed design levels. This is the situation found in both Bareji and Heran Distributaries."},{"index":4,"size":89,"text":"Before design can be started, a set of policy decisions must be made to determine the design discharge for each distributary. As these decisions have not been finalized by SIDA this report considers three alternatives for remodeling on the basis that the original command area of each watercourse will be irrigated. • The proposed design discharge for those canals remodeled under LBOD (Bareji only). Using these design discharges it is relatively easy to calculate the dimensions of the canals and the outlets. This was done using the Lacey Formula."},{"index":5,"size":64,"text":"A second assumption was made, again following existing design guidelines, that all outlets would be Adjustable Proportional Modules (APM) except for 20% of outlets closest to the tail, which would be Open Flumes (OF). It has been clearly demonstrated over the years that this combination of outlet types provides the best way to achieve equitable water distribution along the length of a distributary canal."},{"index":6,"size":16,"text":"The results of these calculations are presented for the three canals in Annexes 7 to 9."},{"index":7,"size":9,"text":"For each canal three sets of data are presented:"},{"index":8,"size":17,"text":"• the canal cross-sections at 5000 feet intervals for both the original design and existing discharge levels;"},{"index":9,"size":35,"text":"• the proposed dimensions of each outlet for the expected design discharge (i.e. 109 cusec design discharge for Bareji as per the LBOD remodeling program, 60 cusecs for Heran and 51.6 cusecs for Dhoro Naro);"},{"index":10,"size":87,"text":"• the dimensions that would be required to distribute existing discharges equitably in existing dimensions of the distributary, calculated using the SIC model. From the data provided in these appendices it is then possible to proceed with remodeling once the appropriate design discharge has been chosen. Given the ease of using computers to recalculate all of the canal dimensions it is possible to determine outlet dimensions for any other design discharge should there be a change in policy towards water allocation at the Area Water Board level."},{"index":11,"size":30,"text":"However, remodeling under the Pilot Program of the Farmer Managed Irrigation Project in Sindh also requires the participation of water users, an issue that is addressed in the next section."}]},{"head":"INVOLVEMENT OF WATER USERS AND OTHERS IN REMODELING OF OUTLETS","index":16,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":63,"text":"It is essential that water users be involved in any process of remodeling because they have to agree to the changes made and feel that they are partners of the physical infrastructure. In the circumstances present in Sindh this is even more important because Farmer Organizations are being established who will take over full operation and maintenance responsibility for secondary canals and watercourses."},{"index":2,"size":39,"text":"Clearly there has to be a high level decision made concerning the overall discharge into each canal at the Area Water Board level because it is not possible to let each canal bargain for a different level of discharge."}]},{"head":"a) Water User Involvement in Design","index":17,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":76,"text":"Once the target discharge is established for each secondary canal, then the design must be discussed with the Farmer Organization members so that they fully understand the expected pattern of water distribution that will occur once remodeling has been completed. If discussions do not take place at this stage in an open atmosphere then there will be suspicion that one group will receive more than another, and this suspicion may later result in damage to infrastructure."},{"index":2,"size":62,"text":"Before the establishment of Farmer Organizations there was no effective communication between staff of the Sindh Irrigation Department and water users. Now such channels of communication have been established and it is possible to have a much more participatory involvement of the water users. By holding design meetings with the water users everybody is involved and cannot complain of any underhand deals."}]},{"head":"b) Water User Involvement in Construction","index":18,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":144,"text":"It has been shown in other locations that if water users are involved in the reconstruction of infrastructure they are much more likely to accept that the outlet is constructed according to the agreed design. In the Gal Oya Water Management Project the newly established farmer organizations were able to undertake earthwork and some basic construction for which they were paid under a series of contracts awarded by the Irrigation Department (Uphoff, 1986). Not only did this mean that the quality of the work was higher than if a disinterested contractor had done it, but it also earned some income for the farmer organization that they could use for other purposes. It is noteworthy that these farmer organizations, which function at secondary canal level and have representation at the equivalent of the Area Water Board level, are continuing to function effectively after 20 years."}]},{"head":"c) Water User Involvement in Commissioning of Remodeled Canals","index":19,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":103,"text":"An important element of remodeling is testing the canal once it has been completed to ensure that it functions properly. The case of Kalpani Distributary in Northwest Frontier Province is a clear example of the need to check actual discharges as soon as construction is completed (Murray-Rust and van Halsema, 1998). It is just not acceptable to assume a canal will function properly: it must be verified. Once remodeling has been completed then a joint program of verification can be implemented whereby both Irrigation Department staff and water users test the discharge of each watercourse and of the secondary canal at selected locations."},{"index":2,"size":41,"text":"If both parties are satisfied that the actual discharges are close enough to design conditions then the structures can be formally turned over to the water users with an agreement and understanding that the infrastructure does what it is designed for."},{"index":3,"size":14,"text":"Where there are major deviations from designed conditions, structures have to be adjusted accordingly."}]},{"head":"d) Operation and Maintenance","index":20,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":91,"text":"Once the remodeled canal is turned over to the Farmer Organization routine operation and maintenance activities can be undertaken. The most important elements are the periodic checking of discharges of different outlets along the lines of the old \"H\" register that is rarely undertaken these days, and the checking of cross-sections of the secondary canal. With recent moves that involve the Army of Pakistan in checking outlet dimensions it is important for the Farmer Organization to maintain a proper Outlet Register that shows what the dimensions of each outlet should be."},{"index":2,"size":35,"text":"The Farmer Organization must pay particular attention to the discharge received at the head of the secondary canal. If incoming discharges are too high or too low it becomes impossible to maintain equitable water distribution."},{"index":3,"size":57,"text":"Data on water levels and discharges have to be sent to the Area Water Board, where conditions in all canals can be monitored. It is important that these data are also made available to constituent Farmer Organizations so that they can verify that water distribution is equitable between secondary canals and within their own area of responsibility."},{"index":4,"size":19,"text":"With such routine activities it is possible to foresee a situation whereby equitable water distribution becomes a straightforward task."}]},{"head":"CONCLUSIONS","index":21,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":41,"text":"Assuming that the range of conditions experienced in the three pilot distributaries is representative of overall conditions in Sindh, then it is clear that there is a great deal of work to be undertaken before equitable water distribution can be reestablished."},{"index":2,"size":43,"text":"Current conditions are clearly inequitable. Actual discharges at the head of secondary canals show big variations from design, with some canals getting a lot more while others getting less than design. Along distributaries there are large variations in the DPR for different watercourses."},{"index":3,"size":32,"text":"Rectifying this situation is not easy but it can be undertaken if a proper process of remodeling is established that uses the Farmer Organizations as allies in the process rather than enemies."},{"index":4,"size":71,"text":"It has to be a joint process because the Farmer Organizations do not have the technical skills to redesign canals and outlets in the correct manner and therefore require the inputs of the SIDA staff. However, SIDA staff must view the Farmer Organizations as their clients and treat them accordingly. The process of remodeling must be open and transparent so that there is no room for suspicion or interference by influential."},{"index":5,"size":59,"text":"The actual redesign is a simple process once the design conditions have been established and agreed upon by all concerned. With the aid of computers the systems can be redesigned to accommodate any discharge at the secondary canal level, and allowances can be made for special conditions along a secondary canal that are agreed upon by the Farmer Organization."},{"index":6,"size":41,"text":"It should be fully understood that remodeling goes well beyond mere design. It requires the involvement of water users in all stages of the intervention: planning, design, construction, testing, operation and maintenance, and in monitoring of conditions after remodeling has occurred.  "}]},{"head":"ANNEXURES Annex-I","index":22,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Annex-IV","index":23,"paragraphs":[]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 1 . Figure 1. Index plan of Nara Canal Circle. "},{"text":"Figure 3 . Figure 2. Average monthly discharge, Bareji distributary. "},{"text":"Figure 4 . Figure 4. Average monthly discharge, Heran Distributary. "},{"text":"Figure 5 . Figure 5. Delivery performance ratio of watercourses along Heran Distributary. "},{"text":"Figure 6 . Figure 6. Average monthly discharge, Dhoro Naro Minor. "},{"text":"Figure 7 . Figure 7. Delivery performance ratio of watercourses along Dhoro Naro Minor. "},{"text":" The three alternatives are: • The official design discharge established in 1932 (Heran and Dhoro Naro only); • The average annual discharge measured during the period 1997/98 under the Pilot Project for Farmer Managed Irrigation in Sindh (i.e. the current status quo); "},{"text":"  "},{"text":" FIGURE 3. DELIVERY PERFORMANCE RATIONS OF WATERCOURSES ALONG BAREJI DISTRIBUTARY ...................... FIGURE 4. AVERAGE MONTHLY DISCHARGE, HERAN DISTRIBUTARY ............................................................................. FIGURE 5. DELIVERY PERFORMANCE RATIONS OF WATERCOURSES ALONG HERAN DISTRIBUTARY .................... FIGURE 6. AVERAGE MONTHLY DISCHARGE, DHORO NARO MINOR............................................................................ FIGURE 7. DELIVERY PERFORMANCE RATIONS OF WATERCOURSES ALONG DHORO NARO MINOR.....................  "},{"text":"Table 1 . Design dimensions of Bareji Distributary, Mirpurkhas for the year 1984. Standard Specifications Standard Specifications Bank Width [ft] Bank Width [ft]  "},{"text":"Table 2 Design dimensions of Bareji Distributary, Mirpurkhas for the year 1994 Bank Width [ft] Bank Width [ft]  "},{"text":"Table 4 . Design dimensions of outlets for Bareji Distributary, Mirpurkhas for the year 1984.  W/C.No. Distance CCA Qd H B Y HL H MMH Type of R.L of W/C.No.DistanceCCAQdHBYHLHMMH Type ofR.L of IIMI IPD (RD) Acres [cfs] [ft] [ft] [ft] [ft]   outlet crest IIMIIPD(RD)Acres[cfs][ft][ft][ft][ft]outletcrest 1-R 240/1 0.5 254 0.7 1.30 0.20 0.50 - 0.8 0.6 APM 53.16 1-R240/10.52540.71.300.200.50-0.80.6APM53.16 1-L 229/1L 0.5 685 2.01 2.70 0.25 0.80 2.1 1.9 1.42 APM 51.72 1-L229/1L0.56852.012.700.250.802.11.91.42APM51.72 2-R 240/1AR 1.75 248 0.72 1.20 0.32 0.40 0.3 0.8 - APM 53.05 2-R240/1AR1.752480.721.200.320.400.30.8-APM53.05 3-R 239/2R 4.9 829 2.32 2.20 0.40 0.66 0.6 1.5 1.15 APM 51.36 3-R239/2R4.98292.322.200.400.660.61.51.15APM51.36 4-R 239/2A 4.9 294 1.89 2.00 0.32 1.08 0.2 0.9 0.69 APM 51.56 4-R239/2A4.92941.892.000.321.080.20.90.69APM51.56 2-L 228/1L 5.7 806 2.26 2.00 0.32 0.92 2.3 1.1 0.81 APM 51.81 2-L228/1L5.78062.262.000.320.922.31.10.81APM51.81 5-R 240/2R 6.7 601 1.74 2.10 0.40 0.72 - 1.4 1.04 APM 51.55 5-R240/2R6.76011.742.100.400.72-1.41.04APM51.55 3-L 228/1A 11.5 670 1.88 2.10 0.50 0.40 2 1.7 1.27 APM 50.48 3-L228/1A11.56701.882.100.500.4021.71.27APM50.48 6-R 240/3R 11.5 481 1.29 1.30 0.32 0.75 - 0.6 0.39 APM 51.22 6-R240/3R11.54811.291.300.320.75-0.60.39APM51.22 4-L 228/2L 12.1 144 0.4 1.50 0.20 0.25 1.1 1.3 0.93 APM 50.96 4-L228/2L12.11440.41.500.200.251.11.30.93APM50.96 5-L 227/1AL 12.1 1590 4.43 2.60 0.63 0.80 - 1.8 1.35 APM 49.80 5-L227/1AL12.115904.432.600.630.80-1.81.35APM49.80 6-L 227/1L 13.1 661 1.84 1.90 0.32 0.72 1.63 1.2 0.9 APM 50.50 6-L227/1L13.16611.841.900.320.721.631.20.9APM50.50 7-L 226/1L 14 523 1.44 1.90 0.25 0.72 1.4 1.2 0.9 APM 50.37 7-L226/1L145231.441.900.250.721.41.20.9APM50.37 8-L 226/2L 17.3 583 1.63 2.00 0.25 0.80 0.9 1.2 0.9 APM 49.74 8-L226/2L17.35831.632.000.250.800.91.20.9APM49.74 9-L 225/1L 20 547 1.54 1.20 0.35 - 1 1.2 0.19 OF 50.21 9-L225/1L205471.541.200.35-11.20.19OF50.21 7-R 239/3R 22.9 136 0.39 1.60 0.20 0.24 0.9 1.4 1.02 APM 48.38 7-R239/3R22.91360.391.600.200.240.91.41.02APM48.38 9-R 238/2R 25.1 451 1.27 1.00 0.40 - 0.2 1.0 0.14 OF 48.51 9-R238/2R25.14511.271.000.40-0.21.00.14OF48.51 8-R 238/1R 25.1 777 2.25 1.80 0.40 0.76 0.6 1.0 0.78 APM 48.76 8-R238/1R25.17772.251.800.400.760.61.00.78APM48.76 10-L 225/1AL 25.4 722 0.91 1.35 0.18 - - 1.4 - OF - 10-L225/1AL25.47220.911.350.18--1.4-OF- 10-R 237/1R 29.2 807 2.26 1.30 0.17 - 0.1 1.3 0.17 OF 47.49 10-R237/1R29.28072.261.300.17-0.11.30.17OF47.49 11-L 225/2L 30.3 339 0.52 1.30 0.20 0.41 0.3 0.9 0.66 APM 48.71 11-L225/2L30.33390.521.300.200.410.30.90.66APM48.71 12-L 224/1L 33.5 354 0.58 1.00 0.18 - 0.05 1.0 0.14 OF 47.56 12-L224/1L33.53540.581.000.18-0.051.00.14OF47.56 11-R 236/1AR 36           11-R236/1AR36 13-L 224/2L 39.31 646 1.53 1.00 0.48 - - 1.0 0.14 OF 47.16 13-L224/2L39.316461.531.000.48--1.00.14OF47.16  "},{"text":"Table 1 . Design and existing dimensions of Heran Distributary, Sanghar. Existing (1997/98) Existing (1997/98)  "},{"text":"Table 1 . Design and existing dimensions of Dhoro Naro Minor, Nawabshah. Distance (RD) Designed (1932) Existing (1997-98) Distance (RD)Designed (1932)Existing (1997-98)  Width [ft] Depth [ft] Width [ft] Depth [ft] Width [ft]Depth [ft]Width [ft]Depth [ft] 0.00 15.5 2.3 16 3.99 0.0015.52.3163.99 5.50 15 2.3 17 4.30 5.50152.3174.30 5.90   19 3.73 5.90193.73 10.50 13 2.2 15 3.13 10.50132.2153.13 11.48   17 2.91 11.48172.91 14.50 11 2.1 13 2.72 14.50112.1132.72 16.73   13 3.15 16.73133.15 24.50 9 1.7 11 3.05 24.5091.7113.05 28.86   10 3.20 28.86103.20 31.50 7.5 1.6 5 2.68 31.507.51.652.68 32.28 7.15 1.4 6 2.06 32.287.151.462.06 33.78   5 3.21 33.7853.21  "},{"text":"Table 2 . Design dimensions of outlets for Dhoro Naro Minor, Nawabshah for the year 1932. W/C. No. Distance CCA Qd B H W/C. No.DistanceCCAQdBH  [RD] [Acres] [Cusec] [ft] [(ft] [RD][Acres][Cusec][ft][(ft]  "},{"text":"Table 1 . Actual discharges at head regulator of Bareji Distributary Mirpurkhas. Month Average (Q) Month Average (Q)  MonthAverage (Q)MonthAverage (Q)  [Cusec]    [Cusec]  [Cusec][Cusec] April 97 63.5 October 97  68.59  April 9763.5October 9768.59 May 97 62.2 November 97  59.52  May 9762.2November 9759.52 June 97 64.8 December 97  62.26  June 9764.8December 9762.26 July 97 71.0 January 98  52.37  July 9771.0January 9852.37 August 97 72.2 February 98  67.93  August 9772.2February 9867.93 Sept 97 69.5 March 98  67.65  Sept 9769.5March 9867.65 Table 2. Water delivery performance ratio at each outlet of Bareji Distributary, Mirpurkhas for kharif 1997. Table 2.Water delivery performance ratio at each outlet of Bareji Distributary, Mirpurkhas for kharif 1997. W/c No. W/c No. Design Q May June July Aug Sept W/c No.W/c No.Design QMayJuneJulyAugSept IWMI IPD [Cusec]      IWMIIPD[Cusec] 1R 240/1 0.7  2.52 2.58 2.52 3.00 2.52 1R240/10.72.522.582.523.002.52 1L 229/1L 2.01  1.85 1.84 1.86 1.82 2.36 1L229/1L2.011.851.841.861.822.36 2R 240/1AR 0.72  2.09 2.09 2.09 2.03 2.07 2R240/1AR0.722.092.092.092.032.07 3R 239/2R 2.32  1.41 1.28 1.53 1.58 1.01 3R239/2R2.321.411.281.531.581.01 4R 239/2A 1.89  0.66 0.69 0.67 0.59 0.59 4R239/2A1.890.660.690.670.590.59 2L 228/1L 2.26  1.96 1.95 1.32 1.31 1.64 2L228/1L2.261.961.951.321.311.64 5R 240/2R 1.74  1.73 1.72 1.75 1.28 1.76 5R240/2R1.741.731.721.751.281.76 3L 228/1A 1.88  2.13 2.10 2.31 2.19 2.39 3L228/1A1.882.132.102.312.192.39 6R 240/3R 1.29  1.76 1.73 4.03 4.35 3.11 6R240/3R1.291.761.734.034.353.11 4L 228/2L 0.4  5.27 4.00 2.24 2.46 2.53 4L228/2L0.45.274.002.242.462.53 5L 227/1AL 4.43  1.01 1.06 0.82 0.99 1.10 5L227/1AL4.431.011.060.820.991.10 6L 227/1L 1.84  2.77 2.85 2.64 2.51 2.63 6L227/1L1.842.772.852.642.512.63 7L 226/1L 1.44  2.41 2.96 2.86 3.01 2.72 7L226/1L1.442.412.962.863.012.72 8L 226/2L 1.63  1.26 1.13 1.91 2.07 1.87 8L226/2L1.631.261.131.912.071.87 9L 225/1L 1.54  1.55 1.67 1.68 1.54 1.98 9L225/1L1.541.551.671.681.541.98 7R 239/3R 0.39  1.85 1.16 3.06 2.82 2.48 7R239/3R0.391.851.163.062.822.48 8R 238/1R 2.25  0.27 0.26 0.20 0.49 0.49 8R238/1R2.250.270.260.200.490.49 9R 238/2R 1.27  1.02 0.94 0.95 1.02 1.39 9R238/2R1.271.020.940.951.021.39 10L 225/1AL 0.91  3.00 3.32 2.62 2.78 3.66 10L225/1AL0.913.003.322.622.783.66 10R 237/1R 2.26  0.74 0.68 0.60 0.83 0.25 10R237/1R2.260.740.680.600.830.25 11L 225/2L 0.52  2.54 4.69 4.94 6.68 4.80 11L225/2L0.522.544.694.946.684.80 12L 224/1L 0.58  3.49 2.41 3.69 2.67 3.50 12L224/1L0.583.492.413.692.673.50 11R 236/1AR       11R236/1AR 13L 224/2L 1.53  1.81 2.32 1.73 2.62 1.63 13L224/2L1.531.812.321.732.621.63  "},{"text":"Table 3 . Water delivery performance ratio at each outlet of Bareji Distributary, Mirpurkhas for rabi 1997/98. W/cNo. IWMI W/c No. IPD Design Q Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar W/cNo. IWMI W/c No. IPD Design QOctNovDecFebMar   [Cusec]      [Cusec] 1R 240/1 0.7 2.19 2.26 3.02 2.43 1.87 1R240/10.72.192.263.022.431.87 1L 229/1L 2.01 2.51 1.42 1.09 1.31 1.15 1L229/1L2.012.511.421.091.311.15 2R 240/1AR 0.72 2.07 1.71 1.97 1.63 1.30 2R240/1AR0.722.071.711.971.631.30 3R 239/2R 2.32 0.85 0.71 0.45 0.94 1.23 3R239/2R2.320.850.710.450.941.23 4R 239/2A 1.89 0.52 0.29 0.40 0.99 1.22 4R239/2A1.890.520.290.400.991.22 2L 228/1L 2.26 1.50 1.51 1.45 1.67 1.50 2L228/1L2.261.501.511.451.671.50 5R 240/2R 1.74 1.77 1.67 1.68 2.19 1.86 5R240/2R1.741.771.671.682.191.86 3L 228/1A 1.88 2.49 2.07 2.02 2.39 2.32 3L228/1A1.882.492.072.022.392.32 6R 240/3R 1.29 3.08 3.57 2.97 2.78 2.42 6R240/3R1.293.083.572.972.782.42 4L 228/2L 0.4 2.24 2.32 1.66 3.16 3.23 4L228/2L0.42.242.321.663.163.23 5L 227/1AL 4.43 0.91 0.59 1.48 1.68 1.47 5L227/1AL4.430.910.591.481.681.47 6L 227/1L 1.84 2.30 1.70 1.68 2.48 2.56 6L227/1L1.842.301.701.682.482.56 7L 226/1L 1.44 2.90 1.32 1.65 1.58 1.47 7L226/1L1.442.901.321.651.581.47 8L 226/2L 1.63 1.53 1.65 1.56 1.08 1.09 8L226/2L1.631.531.651.561.081.09 9L 225/1L 1.54 2.22 1.54 1.36 2.83 2.20 9L225/1L1.542.221.541.362.832.20 7R 239/3R 0.39 2.86 2.55 1.92 1.65 2.55 7R239/3R0.392.862.551.921.652.55 8R 238/1R 2.25 0.53 0.72 0.75 0.74 0.63 8R238/1R2.250.530.720.750.740.63 9R 238/2R 1.27 1.73 1.80 1.66 1.02 1.29 9R238/2R1.271.731.801.661.021.29 10L 225/1AL 0.91 2.94 3.50 1.78 2.67 1.46 10L225/1AL0.912.943.501.782.671.46 10R 237/1R 2.26 0.38 0.81 0.87 0.81 1.26 10R237/1R2.260.380.810.870.811.26 11L 225/2L 0.52 6.13 4.24 4.09 3.93 4.10 11L225/2L0.526.134.244.093.934.10 12L 224/1L 0.58 3.43 2.15 4.71 2.49 3.02 12L224/1L0.583.432.154.712.493.02 11R        11R 13L 224/2L 1.53 1.58 2.55 2.77 1.99 4.37 13L224/2L1.531.582.552.771.994.37  "},{"text":"Table 1 . Actual average discharge at head regulator of Heran Distributary, Sanghar Month Discharge Month Discharge    MonthDischargeMonthDischarge  [cusec]  [cusec]    [cusec][cusec] Apr 97 91.3 Oct 97 62.0     Apr 9791.3Oct 9762.0 May 97 102.5 Nov 97 59.4     May 97102.5Nov 9759.4 June 97 107.0 Dec 97 53.5     June 97107.0Dec 9753.5 July 97 113.7 Feb 98 78.4     July 97113.7Feb 9878.4 Aug 97 104.4 Mar 98 69.9     Aug 97104.4Mar 9869.9 Sept 97 109.6       Sept 97109.6 Table 2. Water delivery performance ratio at each outlet of Heran Distributary, Sanghar for kharif 1997. Table 2.Water delivery performance ratio at each outlet of Heran Distributary, Sanghar for kharif 1997. WC Design Q April May June July August Sept WCDesign QAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSept  [cusec]       [cusec] 1-L 0.84 0.94 0.84 1.54 1.36 2.73 1.48 1-L0.840.940.841.541.362.731.48 2-R 0.54 1.62 1.90 2.31 2.20 3.06 4.21 2-R0.541.621.902.312.203.064.21 3-L 0.99 2.19 3.02 3.11 2.72 3.20 1.37 3-L0.992.193.023.112.723.201.37 4-R 2.46 2.21 2.31 2.40 2.54 2.26 2.84 4-R2.462.212.312.402.542.262.84 5-L 2.50 0.96 1.20 1.35 1.28 1.86 2.07 5-L2.500.961.201.351.281.862.07 6-L 1.45 4.05 4.59 4.66 3.96 1.66 1.59 6-L1.454.054.594.663.961.661.59 7-L 2.09 1.71 2.19 2.30 2.25 2.54 2.85 7-L2.091.712.192.302.252.542.85 9-AR 1.55 1.32 1.47 1.57 1.53 1.71 1.63 9-AR1.551.321.471.571.531.711.63 8-L 1.55 2.28 2.73 2.84 2.94 2.91 2.82 8-L1.552.282.732.842.942.912.82 9-R 3.16 1.57 1.90 1.92 1.77 1.89 1.98 9-R3.161.571.901.921.771.891.98 8-AL 1.08 3.09 3.72 3.93 3.96 3.10 3.98 8-AL1.083.093.723.933.963.103.98 10-R 2.17 2.30 2.26 2.65 2.87 2.97 2.95 10-R2.172.302.262.652.872.972.95 11+12-R 4.52 1.56 1.61 1.66 1.75 2.17 1.93 11+12-R4.521.561.611.661.752.171.93 13-R 1.93 1.09 1.34 1.22 1.31 1.20 1.23 13-R1.931.091.341.221.311.201.23 14-L 1.13 2.14 2.48 2.64 2.79 2.74 2.81 14-L1.132.142.482.642.792.742.81 15-L 1.15 1.55 1.89 1.59 1.75 1.62 1.69 15-L1.151.551.891.591.751.621.69 16-R 2.83 1.23 1.43 1.28 1.33 1.01 1.31 16-R2.831.231.431.281.331.011.31 17-AL 2.66 1.47 1.85 1.86 1.93 1.74 1.98 17-AL2.661.471.851.861.931.741.98 16-AR 1.85 1.26 1.56 1.75 1.69 1.36 2.01 16-AR1.851.261.561.751.691.362.01 17-BL 1.85 0.98 1.38 1.36 1.41 1.33 1.34 17-BL1.850.981.381.361.411.331.34 18-R 2.19 0.91 1.06 1.07 1.22 1.12 1.09 18-R2.190.911.061.071.221.121.09 17-AT 2.38 0.94 1.37 1.13 1.35 1.07 1.30 17-AT2.380.941.371.131.351.071.30 18-AT 3.12 0.96 1.27 1.06 1.26 1.19 1.23 18-AT3.120.961.271.061.261.191.23 1-AL KM 1.02 2.12 2.16 2.49 2.56 2.11 2.75 1-AL KM1.022.122.162.492.562.112.75 1-L .83 2.67 2.87 3.55 3.41 2.40 2.95 1-L.832.672.873.553.412.402.95 2-R 2.06 0.83 0.94 1.30 1.30 1.00 0.86 2-R2.060.830.941.301.301.000.86 3-L 1.28 1.55 1.20 1.27 1.52 1.43 1.46 3-L1.281.551.201.271.521.431.46 4-R 2.62 0.93 0.91 0.94 1.30 1.00 1.15 4-R2.620.930.910.941.301.001.15 5-T 1.64 1.59 1.43 1.52 1.83 1.81 2.45 5-T1.641.591.431.521.831.812.45 6-T 1.06 1.02 0.94 1.05 1.56 1.03 1.40 6-T1.061.020.941.051.561.031.40  "},{"text":"Table 1 . Actual average discharge at head regulator of Dhoro Naro Minor, Nawabshah. Month Discharge Month  Discharge  MonthDischargeMonthDischarge  [Cusec]   [Cusec]  [Cusec][Cusec] May-97 55.97 Oct-97  68.26  May-9755.97Oct-9768.26 Jun-97 51.38 Nov-97  61.40  Jun-9751.38Nov-9761.40 Jul-97 66.30 Dec-97  64.77  Jul-9766.30Dec-9764.77 Aug-97 53.37 Feb-98  73.90  Aug-9753.37Feb-9873.90 Sep-97 60.04 Mar-98  65.92  Sep-9760.04Mar-9865.92 Table 2. Water delivery performance ratio at each outlet of Dhoro Naro Minor, Nawabshah for kharif 1997. Table 2.Water delivery performance ratio at each outlet of Dhoro Naro Minor, Nawabshah for kharif 1997. W/c No. Design Q June July August Sept W/c No.Design QJuneJulyAugustSept  [Cusec]     [Cusec] 1-R 1.4 3.04 1.93 2.45 3.37 1-R1.43.041.932.453.37 1-DL 1.45 4.65 2.50 2.82 2.56 1-DL1.454.652.502.822.56 2-R 1.59 0.82 1.62 1.39 1.74 2-R1.590.821.621.391.74 1-L 1.62 1.86 2.34 2.21 1.50 1-L1.621.862.342.211.50 3-R 1.45 1.43 1.68 1.71 0.88 3-R1.451.431.681.710.88 1-AL 1.76 1.35 1.81 1.39 1.39 1-AL1.761.351.811.391.39 1-BL 4.3 0.70 0.61 0.65 0.50 1-BL4.30.700.610.650.50 1-CL 2.56 1.02 1.08 0.83 0.90 1-CL2.561.021.080.830.90 2-L 2.02 1.60 1.08 1.12 1.28 2-L2.021.601.081.121.28 2-AL 1.44 1.52 2.57 1.85 2.02 2-AL1.441.522.571.852.02 4-R 3.46 0.92 0.79 0.88 0.70 4-R3.460.920.790.880.70 3-L 1.76 1.79 1.94 1.04 1.02 3-L1.761.791.941.041.02 4-L 1.01 3.41 2.86 0.96 1.09 4-L1.013.412.860.961.09 4-BL 1.43 1.73 3.48 2.95 3.26 4-BL1.431.733.482.953.26 4-AL 1.17 4.05 9.99 10.14 12.37 4-AL1.174.059.9910.1412.37 5-R 0.24 0.13 0.41 0.51 0.78 5-R0.240.130.410.510.78 6-R 0.83 0.87 1.64 1.75 2.37 6-R0.830.871.641.752.37 5-L 1.88 1.02 2.12 1.61 1.66 5-L1.881.022.121.611.66 6-AR 0.57 0.66 2.46 1.80 2.23 6-AR0.570.662.461.802.23 6-L 2.41 0.16 0.65 0.70 0.93 6-L2.410.160.650.700.93 7-R 1.02 0.36 1.52 1.12 1.17 7-R1.020.361.521.121.17 7-L 2.01 0.12 0.56 0.41 0.57 7-L2.010.120.560.410.57 9-L 2.11 0.11 0.78 0.31 0.58 9-L2.110.110.780.310.58 10-L 2.38 0.08 0.50 0.31 0.39 10-L2.380.080.500.310.39 11-TAIL 0.98     11-TAIL0.98  "},{"text":"Table 1 . Proposed dimensions for different discharges of Bareji Distributary, Mirpurkhas. S.No. Distance Q=70 cusecs Q=109 cusecs   S.No.DistanceQ=70 cusecsQ=109 cusecs  [RD] B,ft D,ft B,ft  D,ft  [RD]B,ftD,ftB,ftD,ft 1.00 0.00 18.45 2.75 22.32  3.10  1.000.0018.452.7522.323.10 2.00 5.00 17.21 2.50 21.76  2.75  2.005.0017.212.5021.762.75 3.00 10.00 14.91 2.30 19.28  2.50  3.0010.0014.912.3019.282.50 4.00 15.00 12.00 2.00 14.00  2.30  4.0015.0012.002.0014.002.30 5.00 20.00 11.74 1.85 12.87  2.20  5.0020.0011.741.8512.872.20 6.00 25.00 11.15 1.70 12.47  2.00  6.0025.0011.151.7012.472.00 7.00 30.00 5.29 1.40 9.26  1.30  7.0030.005.291.409.261.30 8.00 35.00 4.23 1.20 6.48  1.20  8.0035.004.231.206.481.20 9.00 39.31        9.0039.31 Table 2. Proposed dimensions of outlets of Bareji Distributary, Mirpurkhas (Q=109 cusecs).  Table 2.Proposed dimensions of outlets of Bareji Distributary, Mirpurkhas (Q=109 cusecs). W\\C Distance Proposed Q Depth H Hs Y B Type of W\\CDistanceProposed QDepthHHsYBType of  [RD] [cusec] [ft] [ft] [ft] [ft] [ft] outlet [RD][cusec][ft][ft][ft][ft][ft]outlet Head 0 109.00 3.10      Head0109.003.10 1L 0.50 5.40 3.07 1.84 0.92 0.92 0.84 APM 1L0.505.403.071.840.920.920.84APM 1R 0.50 1.88 3.07 1.84 0.92 0.92 0.29 APM 1R0.501.883.071.840.920.920.29APM 2R 1.75 1.94 2.98 1.79 0.89 0.89 0.31 APM 2R1.751.942.981.790.890.890.31APM 3R 4.90 6.24 2.76 1.65 0.83 0.83 1.14 APM 3R4.906.242.761.650.830.831.14APM 4R 4.90 5.08 2.76 1.65 0.83 0.83 0.93 APM 4R4.905.082.761.650.830.830.93APM 2L 5.70 6.07 2.73 1.64 0.82 0.82 1.12 APM 2L5.706.072.731.640.820.821.12APM 5R 6.70 4.68 2.71 1.62 0.81 0.81 0.88 APM 5R6.704.682.711.620.810.810.88APM 3L 11.50 5.05 2.44 1.46 0.73 0.73 1.11 APM 3L11.505.052.441.460.730.731.11APM 6R 11.50 3.47 2.44 1.46 0.73 0.73 0.76 APM 6R11.503.472.441.460.730.730.76APM 4L 12.10 1.08 2.42 1.45 0.72 0.72 0.24 APM 4L12.101.082.421.450.720.720.24APM 5L 12.10 11.91 2.42 1.45 0.72 0.72 2.64 APM 5L12.1011.912.421.450.720.722.64APM 6L 13.10 4.95 2.38 1.43 0.71 0.71 1.13 APM 6L13.104.952.381.430.710.711.13APM 7L 14.00 3.87 2.34 1.40 0.70 0.70 0.90 APM 7L14.003.872.341.400.700.700.90APM 8L 17.30 4.38 2.25 1.35 0.68 0.68 1.08 APM 8L17.304.382.251.350.680.681.08APM 9L 20.00 4.14 2.20 1.32 0.66 0.66 1.06 APM 9L20.004.142.201.320.660.661.06APM 7R 22.90 1.05 2.08 1.25 0.63 0.63 0.29 APM 7R22.901.052.081.250.630.630.29APM 8R 25.10 3.41 1.99 1.19 0.60 0.60 1.02 APM 8R25.103.411.991.190.600.601.02APM 9R 25.10 6.05 1.99 1.19 0.60 0.60 1.80 APM 9R25.106.051.991.190.600.601.80APM 10L 25.40 2.45 1.94 1.17 0.58 0.58 0.75 APM 10L25.402.451.941.170.580.580.75APM 10R 29.20 6.07 1.41 1.35   1.46 OF 10R29.206.071.411.351.46OF 11L 30.30 1.40 1.29 1.27   0.36 OF 11L30.301.401.291.270.36OF 12L 33.50 1.56 1.23 1.16   0.38 OF 12L33.501.561.231.160.38OF 11R 36.00 1.88 1.10 1.01   0.46 OF 11R36.001.881.101.010.46OF 13L 39.31 4.11 1.00 0.99   0.66 OF 13L39.314.111.000.990.66OF  "},{"text":"Table 3 . Calculated outlets dimension of Bareji Distributary, Mirpurkhas following SIC model. W\\C Distance Proposed Depth [ft] H Hs Y B Crest Type of W\\CDistanceProposedDepth [ft]HHsYBCrestType of  [RD] Q  [ft] [ft] [ft] [ft] Level outlet [RD]Q[ft][ft][ft][ft]Leveloutlet   [cusec]      [ft]  [cusec][ft] Head  71.57 2.48 0.00      Head71.572.480.00 IL 0 3.83 3.18 1.91 0.95 0.95 0.56 54.08 APM IL03.833.181.910.950.950.5654.08APM 1R 0.5 1.26 3.18 1.91 0.95 0.95 0.19 54.08 APM 1R0.51.263.181.910.950.950.1954.08APM 2R 0.5 1.26 2.71 1.62 0.81 0.81 0.24 53.89 APM 2R0.51.262.711.620.810.810.2453.89APM 3R 1.75 1.77 2.88 1.73 0.86 0.86 0.30 53.44 APM 3R1.751.772.881.730.860.860.3053.44APM 4R 4.9 4.23 2.88 1.73 0.86 0.86 0.72 53.44 APM 4R4.94.232.881.730.860.860.7253.44APM 2L 4.9 4.12 2.97 1.78 0.89 0.89 0.67 53.21 APM 2L4.94.122.971.780.890.890.6753.21APM 5R 5.7 3.18 2.97 1.78 0.89 0.89 0.52 53.01 APM 5R5.73.182.971.780.890.890.5253.01APM 3L 6.7 3.43 3.02 1.81 0.91 0.91 0.54 52.64 APM 3L6.73.433.021.810.910.910.5452.64APM 6R 11.5 2.35 3.01 1.80 0.90 0.90 0.38 52.63 APM 6R11.52.353.011.800.900.900.3852.63APM 4L 11.5 0.71 2.37 1.42 0.71 0.71 0.16 52.35 APM 4L11.50.712.371.420.710.710.1652.35APM 5L 12.1 7.96 2.33 1.40 0.70 0.70 1.87 52.33 APM 5L12.17.962.331.400.700.701.8752.33APM 6L 12.1 3.34 2.43 1.46 0.73 0.73 0.74 52.11 APM 6L12.13.342.431.460.730.730.7452.11APM 7L 13.1 2.63 2.37 1.42 0.71 0.71 0.60 51.96 APM 7L13.12.632.371.420.710.710.6051.96APM 8L 14 2.96 2.77 1.66 0.83 0.83 0.54 50.93 APM 8L142.962.771.660.830.830.5450.93APM 9L 17.3 2.81 2.37 1.42 0.71 0.71 0.64 50.18 APM 9L17.32.812.371.420.710.710.6450.18APM 7R 20 0.69 2.32 1.39 0.69 0.69 0.16 50.16 APM 7R200.692.321.390.690.690.1650.16APM 8R 22.9 4.11 1.80 1.08 0.54 0.54 1.42 49.49 APM 8R22.94.111.801.080.540.541.4249.49APM 9R 25.1 2.32 1.77 1.06 0.53 0.53 0.82 49.48 APM 9R25.12.321.771.060.530.530.8249.48APM 10L 25.1 1.72 1.71 1.02 0.51 0.51 0.64 49.36 APM 10L25.11.721.711.020.510.510.6449.36APM 10R 30.3 2.15 1.23 1.10   0.47 48.80 OF 10R30.32.151.23 1.100.4748.80OF 11L 33.5 0.95 1.18 1.06   0.27 47.65 OF 11L33.50.951.18 1.060.2747.65OF 12L 36 1.02 1.06 0.95   0.20 46.94 OF 12L361.021.06 0.950.2046.94OF 11R 39.31 4.12 1 0.90   0.66 46.27 OF 11R39.314.121 0.900.6646.27OF 13L  2.76 1 0.90   0.30 45.67 OF 13L2.761 0.900.3045.67OF  "},{"text":"Table 1 . Proposed dimensions of Heran Distributary, Sanghar. S.No. Distance [RD]   Q=62cusecs    S.No.Distance [RD]Q=62cusecs    B,ft   D,ft   B,ftD,ft 1.00  0.00 17.05  2.15   1.000.0017.052.15 2.00  5.00 16.36  2.15   2.005.0016.362.15 3.00 10.00 12.67  2.00   3.0010.0012.672.00 4.00 15.00 10.64  1.85   4.0015.0010.641.85 5.00 20.00 8.72  1.70   5.0020.008.721.70 6.00 25.00 7.96  1.65   6.0025.007.961.65 7.00 30.00 4.71  1.30   7.0030.004.711.30 9.00 39.31       9.0039.31 Table 2. Proposed dimensions of outlets of Heran Distributary, Sanghar.   Table 2.Proposed dimensions of outlets of Heran Distributary, Sanghar. W\\C Proposed Distance Depth H Hs Y B Crest W\\CProposedDistanceDepthHHsYBCrest  Q [cusec] [RD] [ft] [ft] [ft] [ft] [ft] Level Q [cusec][RD][ft][ft][ft][ft][ft]Level Head 62.00 0.00 2.15      Head62.000.002.15 1-L 0.86 0.50 2.15 1.29 0.65 0.65 0.23 74.94 1-L0.860.502.151.290.650.650.2374.94 2-R 0.54 4.40 2.15 1.29 0.65 0.65 0.14 74.38 2-R0.544.402.151.290.650.650.1474.38 3-L 1.16 7.00 2.12 1.27 0.64 0.64 0.31 74.03 3-L1.167.002.121.270.640.640.3174.03 5-L 1.69 8.79 2.10 1.26 0.63 0.63 0.46 73.78 5-L1.698.792.101.260.630.630.4673.78 4-R 2.46 9.29 2.10 1.26 0.63 0.63 0.67 73.71 4-R2.469.292.101.260.630.630.6773.71 Gate 10.62 10.00 2.00 1.20 0.60 0.60 3.13 73.67 Gate10.6210.002.001.200.600.603.1373.67 (KWM)         (KWM) 6-L 1.45 10.00 2.00 1.20 0.60 0.60 0.43 73.67 6-L1.4510.002.001.200.600.600.4373.67 7-L 2.09 10.00 1.95 1.17 0.59 0.59 0.64 73.70 7-L2.0910.001.951.170.590.590.6473.70 9-AR 1.43 11.09 1.95 1.17 0.59 0.59 0.44 73.55 9-AR1.4311.091.951.170.590.590.4473.55 8-L 1.55 11.90 1.92 1.15 0.58 0.58 0.49 73.45 8-L1.5511.901.921.150.580.580.4973.45 9-R 3.16 13.07 1.85 1.11 0.56 0.56 1.05 73.32 9-R3.1613.071.851.110.560.561.0573.32 8-AL 1.08 16.70 1.82 1.09 0.55 0.55 0.37 72.82 8-AL1.0816.701.821.090.550.550.3772.82 10-R 2.17 17.35 1.82 1.09 0.55 0.55 0.74 72.73 10-R2.1717.351.821.090.550.550.7472.73 11+12-R 4.52 18.77 1.75 1.05 0.53 0.53 1.63 72.57 11+12-R4.5218.771.751.050.530.531.6372.57 13-R 1.93 20.81 1.70 1.02 0.51 0.51 0.73 72.31 13-R1.9320.811.701.020.510.510.7372.31 14-L 1.13 21.83 1.70 1.02 0.51 0.51 0.43 72.16 14-L1.1321.831.701.020.510.510.4372.16 15-L 1.15 24.99 1.65 0.99 0.50 0.50 0.45 71.74 15-L1.1524.991.650.990.500.500.4571.74 16-R 2.83 26.05 1.60 0.96 0.48 0.48 1.17 71.62 16-R2.8326.051.600.960.480.481.1771.62 17-AL 2.04 26.72 1.50 0.90 0.45 0.45 0.93 71.58 17-AL2.0426.721.500.900.450.450.9371.58 16-AR 1.85 26.82 1.50 0.90 0.45 0.45 0.84 71.57 16-AR1.8526.821.500.900.450.450.8471.57 17-BL 1.85 29.89 1.40 0.84 0.42 0.42 0.93 71.19 17-BL1.8529.891.400.840.420.420.9371.19 18-R 2.19 30.95 1.30 0.78 0.39 0.39 1.23 71.10 18-R2.1930.951.300.780.390.391.2371.10 Tail 3.07 32.00 1.15 0.69 0.35 0.35 2.08 71.04 Tail3.0732.001.150.690.350.352.0871.04  "},{"text":"Table 3 . Calculated outlets dimension of Heran Distributary, Sanghar following SIC model. W\\C Discharge B Y Type of outlet W\\CDischargeBYType of outlet No. [cusec] [ft] [ft]  No.[cusec][ft][ft] 1-L 1.58 0.16 1.23 APM 1-L1.580.161.23APM 2-R 0.99 0.10 1.21 APM 2-R0.990.101.21APM 3-L 2.14 0.25 1.11 APM 3-L2.140.251.11APM 5-L 3.11 0.34 1.17 APM 5-L3.110.341.17APM 4-R 4.53 0.47 1.21 APM 4-R4.530.471.21APM Gate(kwm) 19.55 2.10 1.18 Gate Gate(kwm)19.552.101.18Gate 6-L 2.67 0.29 1.18 APM 6-L2.670.291.18APM 7-L 3.85 0.41 1.18 APM 7-L3.850.411.18APM 9-AR 2.63 0.31 1.11 APM 9-AR2.630.311.11APM 8-L 2.85 0.34 1.11 APM 8-L2.850.341.11APM 9-R 5.82 0.70 1.09 APM 9-R5.820.701.09APM 8-AL 1.99 0.28 0.97 APM 8-AL1.990.280.97APM 10-R 3.99 0.54 1.01 APM 10-R3.990.541.01APM 11+12 R 8.32 1.20 0.97 APM 11+12 R8.321.200.97APM 13-R 3.55 0.68 0.80 APM 13-R3.550.680.80APM 14-L 2.08 0.32 0.93 APM 14-L2.080.320.93APM 15-L 2.12 0.44 0.76 APM 15-L2.120.440.76APM 16-R 5.21 0.90 0.86 APM 16-R5.210.900.86APM 17-AL 3.76 0.81 0.74 APM 17-AL3.760.810.74APM 16-AR 3.41 0.89 0.65 APM 16-AR3.410.890.65APM 17-BL 3.41 0.65  OF 17-BL3.410.65OF 18-R 4.03 0.77  OF 18-R4.030.77OF 17-AT 5.65 1.15  OF 17-AT5.651.15OF 18-AT 5.87 1.20  OF 18-AT5.871.20OF  "},{"text":"Table 1 . Proposed dimensions of Dhoro Naro Minor, Nawabshah. S.No. Distance Q=52.6 cusecs  S.No.DistanceQ=52.6 cusecs  RD B,ft D,ft RDB,ftD,ft 1.00 0.00 16.71 2 1.000.0016.712 2.00 5.00 16 1.9 2.005.00161.9 3.00 10.00 15 1.8 3.0010.00151.8 4.00 15.00 10 1.55 4.0015.00101.55 5.00 20.00 8 1.45 5.0020.0081.45 6.00 25.00 7 1.35 6.0025.0071.35 7.00 30.00 5.5 1.20 7.0030.005.51.20 9.00 39.31 2.5 0.9 9.0039.312.50.9  "},{"text":"Table 2 . Proposed dimensions of outlets of Dhoro Naro Minor, Nawabshah. W\\C Proposed Distance Depth [ft] H Hs Y B Crest Level W\\CProposedDistanceDepth [ft]HHsYBCrest Level  Q [cusec] [RD]  [ft] [ft] [ft] [ft] [ft] Q [cusec][RD][ft][ft][ft][ft][ft] Head 52.6 0.00 2.00      Head52.60.002.00 1-R 1.40 2.00 1.97 1.18 0.59 0.59 0.42 96.37 1-R1.402.001.971.180.590.590.4296.37 1-DL 1.45 3.75 1.95 1.17 0.59 0.59 0.44 96.13 1-DL1.453.751.951.170.590.590.4496.13 2-R 1.59 5.70 1.90 1.14 0.57 0.57 0.51 95.89 2-R1.595.701.901.140.570.570.5195.89 1-L 1.62 6.96 1.88 1.13 0.56 0.56 0.52 95.72 1-L1.626.961.881.130.560.560.5295.72 3-R 1.46 8.99 1.85 1.11 0.56 0.56 0.48 95.45 3-R1.468.991.851.110.560.560.4895.45 1-AL 1.76 10.25 1.80 1.08 0.54 0.54 0.61 95.30 1-AL1.7610.251.801.080.540.540.6195.30 1-BL 4.30 11.00 1.70 1.02 0.51 0.51 1.62 95.25 1-BL4.3011.001.701.020.510.511.6295.25 1-CL 2.86 11.00 1.70 1.02 0.51 0.51 1.08 95.25 1-CL2.8611.001.701.020.510.511.0895.25 2-L 2.02 11.10 1.65 0.99 0.50 0.50 0.79 95.26 2-L2.0211.101.650.990.500.500.7995.26 2-AL 1.44 12.96 1.65 0.99 0.50 0.50 0.57 95.00 2-AL1.4412.961.650.990.500.500.5795.00 4-R 3.46 12.98 1.60 0.96 0.48 0.48 1.43 95.03 4-R3.4612.981.600.960.480.481.4395.03 3-L 1.76 13.66 1.55 0.93 0.47 0.47 0.76 94.96 3-L1.7613.661.550.930.470.470.7694.96 4-L 1.01 14.95 1.55 0.93 0.47 0.47 0.44 94.77 4-L1.0114.951.550.930.470.470.4494.77 4-BL 1.43 15.28 1.55 0.93 0.47 0.47 0.62 94.73 4-BL1.4315.281.550.930.470.470.6294.73 5-R 1.28 18.801 1.55 0.93 0.47 0.47 0.55 94.62 5-R1.2818.8011.550.930.470.470.5594.62 4-AL 1.17 18.942 1.50 0.90 0.45 0.45 0.53 94.25 4-AL1.1718.9421.500.900.450.450.5394.25 6-R 0.24 22.08 1.45 0.87 0.44 0.44 0.11 94.26 6-R0.2422.081.450.870.440.440.1194.26 5-L 0.53 24.17 1.42 0.85 0.43 0.43 0.26 93.83 5-L0.5324.171.420.850.430.430.2693.83 6-AR 1.88 24.39 1.40 0.84 0.42 0.42 0.95 93.55 6-AR1.8824.391.400.840.420.420.9593.55 6-L 0.57 27.53 1.35 0.81 0.41 0.41 0.30 93.55 6-L0.5727.531.350.810.410.410.3093.55 7-R 2.40 29.50 1.30 0.78 0.39 0.39 1.35 93.13 7-R2.4029.501.300.780.390.391.3593.13 7-L 1.02 31.59 1.20 0.72 0.36 0.36 0.65 92.91 7-L1.0231.591.200.720.360.360.6592.91 9-L 1.83 31.795 1.15 0.69 0.35 0.35 1.24 92.64 9-L1.8331.7951.150.690.350.351.2492.64 10-L 2.11 32.275 1.05 0.63 0.32 0.32 1.63 92.67 10-L2.1132.2751.050.630.320.321.6392.67 Tail 2.38 32.279 0.88 0.53 0.26 0.26 2.40 92.70 Tail2.3832.2790.880.530.260.262.4092.70  "},{"text":"Table 3 . Calculated outlets dimensions using SIC model for the Dhoro Naro Minor, Nawabshah. W\\C Proposed Distance Depth H Hs Y B Type of W\\CProposedDistanceDepthHHsYBType of  Q [cusec] [RD] [ft] [ft] [ft] [ft] [ft] Outlet Q [cusec][RD][ft][ft][ft][ft][ft]Outlet Head 70.00 0.00 2.95      Head70.000.002.95 1-R 2.26 2.00 2.34 1.40 0.70 0.70 0.53 APM 1-R2.262.002.341.400.700.700.53APM 1-DL 2.34 3.75 2.45 1.47 0.74 0.74 0.51 APM 1-DL2.343.752.451.470.740.740.51APM 2-R 2.56 5.70 2.16 1.30 0.65 0.65 0.67 APM 2-R2.565.702.161.300.650.650.67APM 1-L 2.61 6.96 2.32 1.39 0.70 0.70 0.62 APM 1-L2.616.962.321.390.700.700.62APM 3-R 2.35 8.99 2.61 1.57 0.78 0.78 0.46 APM 3-R2.358.992.611.570.780.780.46APM 1-AL 2.84 10.25 2.94 1.76 0.88 0.88 0.47 APM 1-AL2.8410.252.941.760.880.880.47APM 1-BL 5.40 11.00 2.54 1.53 0.76 0.76 1.11 APM 1-BL5.4011.002.541.530.760.761.11APM 1-CL 4.61 11.00 2.54 1.53 0.76 0.76 0.95 APM 1-CL4.6111.002.541.530.760.760.95APM 2-L 3.26 11.10 2.54 1.53 0.76 0.76 0.67 APM 2-L3.2611.102.541.530.760.760.67APM 2-AL 2.32 12.96 1.59 0.96 0.48 0.48 0.96 APM 2-AL2.3212.961.590.960.480.480.96APM 4-R 5.58 12.98 1.59 0.95 0.48 0.48 2.32 APM 4-R5.5812.981.590.950.480.482.32APM 3-L 2.84 13.66 1.47 0.88 0.44 0.44 1.32 APM 3-L2.8413.661.470.880.440.441.32APM 4-L 1.63 14.95 1.73 1.04 0.52 0.52 0.60 APM 4-L1.6314.951.731.040.520.520.60APM 4-BL 2.30 15.28 1.49 0.89 0.45 0.45 1.06 APM 4-BL2.3015.281.490.890.450.451.06APM 5-R 1.89 18.80 1.70 1.02 0.51 0.51 0.71 APM 5-R1.8918.801.701.020.510.510.71APM 4-AL 0.39 18.94 1.70 1.02 0.51 0.51 0.15 APM 4-AL0.3918.941.701.020.510.510.15APM 6-R 0.85 22.08 1.53 0.92 0.46 0.46 0.38 APM 6-R0.8522.081.530.920.460.460.38APM 5-L 3.03 24.17 1.67 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.17 APM 5-L3.0324.171.671.000.500.501.17APM 6-AR 0.84 24.39 1.67 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.32 APM 6-AR0.8424.391.671.000.500.500.32APM 6-L 3.97 27.53 1.63 0.98 0.49 0.49 1.58 APM 6-L3.9727.531.630.980.490.491.58APM 7-R 1.64 29.50 1.75 1.05 0.52 0.52 0.59 APM 7-R1.6429.501.751.050.520.520.59APM 7-L 3.24 2.01 1.06 0.954   1.199 OF 7-L3.242.011.060.9541.199OF 9-L 3.40 2.11 1.06 0.954   1.259 OF 9-L3.402.111.060.9541.259OF 10-L 3.84 2.38 0.85 0.765   1.977 OF 10-L3.842.380.850.7651.977OF Tail 1.34 0.83 0.85 0.765   0.689 OF Tail1.340.830.850.7650.689OF  "}],"sieverID":"b8d1532d-cff7-4f09-b1eb-5666006b77dc","abstract":""}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"099ae5b7a82202011479204b536ee987","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/d016777d-0c7e-49e4-875f-d59acc72268a/retrieve"},"pageCount":12,"title":"ConR: An R package to assist large-scale multispecies preliminary conservation assessments using distribution data","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"| INTRODUCTION","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":179,"text":"As we attempt to address the modern biodiversity crisis, assessing the conservation status of species has become an invaluable tool for biodiversity conservation. Evaluating threat based on the Red List Categories and Criteria of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN, 2012) is an authoritative, comprehensive and widely used approach in conservation biology (Rodrigues, Pilgrim, Lamoreux, Hoffmann, & Brooks, 2006). Indeed, many decisions made by governments, natural resource managers, and conservation planners (Rodrigues et al., 2006) rely (often solely) on the \"Red List\" published by IUCN (http://www.iucnredlist.org/). For example, programs such as Important Bird Areas (IBA), Important Plant Areas (IPA, Anderson, 2002) or Tropical Important Plant Areas (TIPA, Darbyshire et al., 2017) all rely directly on threat assessments based on IUCN criteria. In parallel, there is also an urgency in listing threatened species in the near future. This is, for example, the case of Target 2 of the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) of the United Nation's Convention on Biological Diversity, which calls for assessing the conservation status of all known plant species by 2020 (https://www.cbd.int/gspc/targets. shtml)."},{"index":2,"size":187,"text":"However, as of 2016, the Red List included assessments of just 21,898 plant species (IUCN Standards and Petitions Subcommittee, 2016), ca. 6.2% of the estimated global total (~352,000 flowering plant species; Paton et al., 2008). The ThreatSearch database (www. bgci.org/threat_search.php) documents the conservation assessments of ca. 150,000 taxa, including assessments at the species and infraspecific levels based on both older or current IUCN criteria; preliminary, global or regional assessments; and assessments based on other non-IUCN criteria. Thus, ThreatSearch represents an uncritical, highend estimate of the total number of plant taxa assessed to date. Hence, over the last three decades, progress toward this target has been slow largely because the process of performing and publishing full Red List assessments is time-consuming. Accelerating global conservation assessments is urgently needed (Krupnick, Kress, & Wagner, 2009;Miller et al., 2012). While alternative methods have been developed to streamline and simplify large-scale conservation assessments (e.g., Krupnick et al., 2009;Miller et al., 2012;Ocampo-Peñuela, Jenkins, Vijay, Li, & Pimm, 2016;Ter Steege et al., 2015), none are based on the theoretical framework provided by IUCN, and they thus have little immediate impact for concrete conservation actions."},{"index":3,"size":72,"text":"The International Union for Conservation of Nature employs five complementary criteria (A, B, C, D and E) under which a species can be evaluated, and, when not already extinct, assessments assign species to three threatened categories (Critically Endangered (CR); Endangered (E); VU (Vulnerable)), or otherwise to LC (Least Concerned), NT (Near Threatened) or DD (Data Deficient, when insufficient data are available). Among these five criteria, criterion B is the most widely used."},{"index":4,"size":139,"text":"For example, in 2007, almost half of all organisms whose status was published on the IUCN Red List were assessed solely based on criterion B (Gaston & Fuller, 2009). Unlike the others, Criterion B is suitable for estimating conservation status even when the distribution of a taxon is only known from georeferenced herbarium or museum collections and with limited information on local threats and potential continuing decline (Schatz, 2002), and it plays a prominent role in describing global trends in extinction risk. Even though some have suggested that Criterion B is the most misapplied of the five (IUCN Standards and Petitions Subcommittee 2016, p. 62), it nevertheless has the significant advantage of allowing assessments to be undertaken using distribution data only (Schatz, 2002), which are in many cases the only information available (in contrast, for example, to abundance data)."},{"index":5,"size":223,"text":"Assessing the conservation status of taxa under IUCN Red List criterion B (IUCN, 2012; IUCN Standards and Petitions Subcommittee 2016) nevertheless presents particular challenges based on recorded primary occurrences (typically obtained by compiling herbarium/ museum records). Criterion B involves two subcriteria (B1 and B2), which reflect two different kinds of geographic range size estimates [subcriterion B1 is based on extent of occurrence (EOO) while B2 is based on area of occupancy (AOO)], and three additional conditions (a, b and c) that describe aspects of the biology and potential decline of the taxon as a result of the impact of threats. Threshold levels for at least one subcriterion and two conditions must be met for a taxon to be assigned a threatened conservation status (see Table 1). and preliminary assessments in a spreadsheet; and (4) provides a visualization of the results by generating maps suitable for the submission of full assessments to the IUCN Red List. ConR can be used for any living organism for which reliable georeferenced distribution data are available. As distributional data for taxa become increasingly available via large open access datasets, ConR provides a novel, timely tool to guide and accelerate the work of the conservation and taxonomic communities by enabling practitioners to conduct preliminary assessments simultaneously for hundreds or even thousands of species in an efficient and time-saving way."},{"index":6,"size":16,"text":"area of occupancy, criterion B, distribution range, extent of occurrence, IUCN, location, preliminary status, threatened taxa"}]},{"head":"| Extent of occurrence","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":75,"text":"Extent of occurrence (EOO) is defined as \"the area contained within the shortest continuous imaginary boundary that can be drawn to encompass all the known, inferred or projected sites of present occurrence of a taxon, excluding cases of vagrancy (IUCN, 2012).\" EOO is generally measured by a minimum convex polygon, or convex hull, defined as \"the smallest polygon in which no internal angle exceeds 180° and which contains all the sites of occurrence (IUCN, 2012).\""},{"index":2,"size":19,"text":"Alternatively, in certain situations, EOO can be calculated as an alpha Hull (see IUCN Standards and Petitions Subcommittee 2016)."}]},{"head":"| Area of occupancy","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":107,"text":"The Area of occupancy (AOO) is defined as \"the area within its 'extent of occurrence' that is occupied by a taxon, excluding cases of vagrancy (IUCN, 2012).\" AOO differs from EOO (see above) as it reflects the fact that a taxon will not usually occur throughout its EOO, that is, there will be areas where the taxon is absent, including (unsuitable areas). The AOO will be a function of the scale or grid cell size at which it is measured, and which should reflect relevant biological aspects of the taxon. For example, the impact of a threat is not identical if we consider tree or herb species."}]},{"head":"| Location","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":115,"text":"A \"location\" is defined as \"a geographically or ecologically distinct area in which a single threat can rapidly affect all individuals of the taxon present (IUCN, 2012).\" Thus, the size of a location depends on the threat (mining, deforestation, poaching, etc.). EOO and AOO, the two main parameters of Criterion B, can be generated automatically (Table 1). However, assessing the number of locations requires contextual information about threats. This information, which is usually obtained from field observations, expert knowledge, and/or precise data on the size and nature of a taxon's range (e.g., continuous vs. severely fragmented), can thus only be applied properly using a \"taxonby-taxon\" process to obtain a fully informed IUCN Red List assessment."}]},{"head":"| Subpopulations","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":59,"text":"\"Subpopulations\" are defined as \"geographically or otherwise distinct groups in the population between which there is little demographic or genetic exchange (IUCN, 2012;Rivers, Bachman, Meagher, Lughadha, & Brummitt, 2010).\" Although the number of subpopulations is not directly taken into account for assessments based on criterion B, this information is requested during the submission process to the IUCN Red List."},{"index":2,"size":99,"text":"Below, we describe ConR, an R package to generate batch preliminary assessments of conservation status following the IUCN guidelines using multiple species datasets based on Criterion B. ConR makes it possible to: (1) calculate or estimate the key parameters needed for an assessment under criterion B; (2) generate preliminary assessments of multiple species using a batch process; and (3) summarize the estimated parameters and preliminary assessments in a spreadsheet and spatially visualize the results on generated maps. ConR implements a novel method to approximate the number of \"locations\" sensu IUCN, one of the key Criterion B parameters (see below)."}]},{"head":"| THE ConR PACKAGE","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":72,"text":"ConR allows users to estimate the above parameters automatically for any list of taxa and then assigns each taxon to a preliminary IUCN threat category according to Criterion B. These preliminary assessments are Under Criterion, B, the assessment of a taxon is based on the calculation of its EOO (B1) and/or AOO (B2). In addition, at least two of the following conditions must be taken into consideration: (1) the number of locations;"},{"index":2,"size":87,"text":"(2) continuing decline of different aspects of its distribution (EOO, AOO, number of locations, etc.); and (3) extreme fluctuation of certain aspects of the taxon's distribution (Table 1). Calculation of the two key range parameters, EOO and AOO, can be easily automated either using a taxon-by-taxon approach, as provided for by the web service GeoCAT (Bachman, Moat, Hill, de la Torre, & Scott, 2011), or in batch mode, for example in other R packages such as speciesgeocodeR (Töpel et al., 2017) or RED (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=red; see Table 2)."},{"index":3,"size":110,"text":"However, none of these packages are designed to estimate the number of locations, a fact that hinders their utility in assigning taxa to a threat category under Criterion B. The notion of \"location\" remains a complex and sometimes confusing concept. It has been interpreted in many different ways depending on the type of organism studied, the general landscape in which a taxon occurs and the type of threat to its populations. In ConR we have, for the first time, attempted to estimate the number of locations automatically so that it can be calculated simultaneously for a large number of taxa. This automation comes with a number of assumptions detailed below."},{"index":4,"size":197,"text":"The number of locations for each taxon can be approximated using two complementary approaches in ConR. First, a grid with cells of a chosen size is overlaid on taxa occurrences and the number of locations is estimated by the number of occupied cells. The grid cell size must be defined by the user and should represent the scale at which subpopulations are equally affected by a given threat. For example, a cell size of 10 km² may be considered a good estimate of the scale at which a particular serious threat event such as mining could equally affect individuals of a given taxon (Durán et al. 2013). The user can choose a fixed cell size across the whole multispecies dataset (e.g. 10 km²) or can use a species-specific sliding scale approach (Rivers et al., 2010). In the latter approach, cell size is defined as 1/x of the maximum interoccurrence distance, where x is the maximum distance between two occurrences (e.g. 5% (0.05) of the max distance between the known occurrences). In both cases, the cell grid is overlaid on the total distribution of the taxon in a way that results in the minimum number of estimated locations."},{"index":5,"size":21,"text":"Finally, as cell size is user defined, alternative estimates of the scale at which a given threat operates can be compared."},{"index":6,"size":145,"text":"In the second approach, ConR integrates information about protected areas (PAs). The underlying rationale for this is that subpopulations within a PA will not be treated in the same way as those located outside a PA. ConR deals with PA in two ways (method_protected_area argument). First, occurrences within a given PA are assumed to fall within the same location irrespective of the size of the PA (\"no_more_ than_one\"). Subpopulations within a PA are thus assumed to be subject to the same threat. For example, protected area downgrading, downsizing, or degazetting (PADDD), a common occurrence throughout the tropics (Mascia et al., 2014), is assumed to affect all individuals within that PA in the same manner (one threat, PADDD affecting the whole of the PA). Similarly, if illegal exploitation takes place in a PA, it is assumed that this could potentially impact all individuals of the taxon."},{"index":7,"size":66,"text":"Second, the number of locations situated within PAs is estimated separately from those occurring outside PAs (\"other\"), thereby decoupling the estimation of locations within and outside of PAs. Thus, two individuals could be geographically close (separated by less than the selected grid cell size) but in separate locations, one in a PA and the other not, because the nature of the threat is not the same."},{"index":8,"size":181,"text":"T A B L E 2 Features of various currently available programs that estimate parameters used for preliminary conservation status assessments following the IUCN guidelines. GeoCAT (Bachman et al., 2011); speciesgeocodeR (Töpel et al., 2017)  For each preliminary assessment, in addition to estimating the \"number of locations\" condition, at least one of the two remaining conditions relating to the future trend of a taxon's distribution or structure must be taken into consideration: continuing decline and/or extreme fluctuation. ConR assumes by default a continuing future decline in habitat quality [condition (b) (iii), Table 1]. While this assumption might appear be an oversimplification, it would seem to be valid in most cases. The validity of this assumption is also intuitively acknowledged by the IUCN guidelines, which recognize a criterion for assessing threat status specifically on the basis of very small or restricted populations (Criterion D). This assumption is also reasonable when one considers that wilderness areas are in rapid decline throughout the world, especially in the tropics (Watson et al., 2016), suggesting that future decline may be anticipated for any given range-restricted species."},{"index":9,"size":50,"text":"Finally, ConR also provides an estimate of the number of subpopulations of a taxon by implementing a circular buffer method (Resol_ sub_pop in km²). This buffer is user defined and can be adapted to different groups of taxa depending on their different dispersal characteristics but also gene flow (if known)."}]},{"head":"| ConR FEATURES","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":127,"text":"ConR includes four functions, two sample occurrence datasets, and two sample shapefile datasets. All functions operate on a mandatory single data frame providing taxon occurrences and on optional user-provided shapefiles of land/sea and protected area limits. Occurrence data and shapefiles must be provided using the WGS84 reference coordinate system. The input data frame requires three mandatory fields: latitude and longitude (in decimal degrees), and taxon name. The collection year can also be added, thereby allowing graphic visualization of a taxon's collecting history (Figure 1). Additional information, such as higher taxonomic rank, can also be provided. By default, ConR saves all results in the user's R working directory. A step by step tutorial (R vignette) describing all options is provided as supplementary material and on the CRAN website."}]},{"head":"| IUCN.eval","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":88,"text":"This is the main ConR function, which provides values for all parameters, including EOO, AOO and an estimate of number of locations, needed for assessing the preliminary conservation status of taxa based on selected conditions and subcriteria of criterion B (Table 1). All options are flexible and can be user defined. The number of locations can be estimated using a fixed or sliding grid approach (Rivers et al., 2010). In addition, PA information can also be taken into account if an appropriate PA shapefile is provided (see above)."},{"index":2,"size":136,"text":"The output is a table in a comma-separated values (CSV) file summarizing the different parameters calculated for each taxon. Besides all of the parameters calculated or estimated, ConR explicitly assigns a preliminary threat category for each taxon under the validated criteria (B1 and/or B2). In addition, one can see the threat assignments based either on EOO (B1) or AOO (B2). The output provides the user with a clear presentation of all the basic information needed to undertake a full IUCN assessment. Results can also be visualized graphically (see along with a distribution map. If PA information was included, the map also depicts the distribution of PAs as well as occurrences within (blue dots) or outside (black dots) them (see Figure 1). This map can be used for the submission of a formal assessment to the IUCN."}]},{"head":"| EOO.computing","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":19,"text":"The EOO.computing function calculates EOO. It operates with a minimum of three unique occurrences; otherwise, it returns \"NA\". In"},{"index":2,"size":12,"text":"ConR, EOO can be estimated either using a \"convex.hull\" or an \"alpha."},{"index":3,"size":91,"text":"hull\" method, as recommended by IUCN Standards and Petitions Subcommittee (2016). Cropping of unsuitable areas (e.g., water bodies) before the calculation of EOO is available via the argument exclude.area. It is important to note, however, that excluding areas from the EOO calculation and the estimate EOO with alpha Hull are explicitly discouraged by the IUCN guidelines (2016) when using Criterion B. Finally, if the EOO is less than the AOO, then the EOO is set to be equal to the AOO, as recommended by the IUCN Standards and Petitions Subcommittee (2016)."},{"index":4,"size":70,"text":"In the very infrequent case that occurrences form a straight segment, the EOO will be zero, representing an underestimate of its surface (IUCN Standards and Petitions Subcommittee 2016). In this specific case, ConR outputs a warning. The EOO is then estimated using a different method: A polygon is built by adding a buffer of a predefined size of 0.1° to the segment, which can be adjusted by the argument buff.alpha."},{"index":5,"size":58,"text":"Also, the EOO cannot be computed when there are less than three unique occurrences; a warning is returned in such case. Finally, it should be noted that the way in which ConR estimates the EOO may be biased for species with wide distributions and cannot be applied to species whose distribution spans the 180th meridian (see R documentation)."}]},{"head":"| subpop.comp","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":126,"text":"This function estimates the number of subpopulations using the circular buffer method (Rivers et al., 2010). Each unique occurrence is buffered with a circle of a defined radius and overlapping circles are merged to form a single subpopulation, while nonoverlapping circles are considered to represent separate subpopulations. For batch processing of species, while the circular buffer method does not take into consideration the dispersal abilities of each taxon, it was recommended by Rivers et al. (2010) after testing various methods. The output must be considered as an approximation of the total number of subpopulations. Although the number of subpopulations is not directly taken into account for assessments based on criterion B, this information is requested for the submission of full assessments to the IUCN Red List."}]},{"head":"| map.res","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":31,"text":"The map.res function allows a graphical summary and geographical exploration of the results of the IUCN.eval function by generating maps with user-specified unit sizes (Figure 2). These maps can show, for "}]},{"head":"| CASE STUDY","index":12,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":35,"text":"In order to illustrate the usefulness and limits of ConR, we tested the package on a high-quality dataset of continental African palm distributions for 60 species (of the 68 currently known; Stauffer et al., 2017)."},{"index":2,"size":138,"text":"A large part of the data were extracted from the RAINBIO database (Dauby et al., 2016), which contains nearly all herbarium collections for African palms. Additional recent collections were added when available, resulting in a dataset of 4,234 unique occurrence records. The dataset was first used for the preparation and submission (as of April 2017) of full, species by species IUCN Red Listing assessments, mainly under Criterion B. Second, using ConR (with default parameters) and the same data for all 60 species, but excluding any \"nonherbarium\" occurrences (such as those based on satellite imagery or population censuses), we performed preliminary assessments as a batch operation. We also ran the dataset with and without PA information (downloaded and filtered from https://www.protectedplanet.net) using the \"protect.areas\" default option. ConR analyzed the dataset in less than 5 minutes using a standard laptop."},{"index":3,"size":32,"text":"The results of the full IUCN assessments and those generated by ConR (with and without PA information), summarized in Table 3, are quite congruent. Factoring in PAs did not alter the outcomes, "},{"index":4,"size":80,"text":"expect for a single species: Oncocalamus wrightianus was assessed as EN in the full assessment and by ConR when no PA information was included, but as VU with PA information. Regarding whether a species was assessed as threatened (i.e., CR, EN or VU) or not (NT or LC), we see that for 43 species (71%), the results from ConR and the full assessments agreed. For seven species, the ConR assessment indicated a threatened status, whereas the full assessment was LC."},{"index":5,"size":25,"text":"Finally, for eight species, the full assessment yielded a status of Data Deficient (DD) while ConR suggested either EN (5 species) or CR (3 species)."},{"index":6,"size":64,"text":"In addition to this case study, we also undertook a preliminary conservation assessment of amphibians of Madagascar using a dataset that contained 7,657 georeferenced records representing 201 species, downloaded on February 9, 2016, from www.gbif.org (https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.2tkoae). This analysis was performed mainly to demonstrate the graphical outputs of ConR (Figures 1 and   2). This dataset is available within ConR as an example data frame (Malagasy_amphibian)."}]},{"head":"| DISCUSSION","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":157,"text":"ConR provides for the first time a dedicated, multispecies conservation assessment package based specifically on IUCN criterion B and using only species geographic distribution. It provides an efficient tool to help accelerate the work of the conservation community by enabling practitioners to conduct preliminary assessments that are both reliable and informative. We stress that ConR does not (and is not intended too) replace the full IUCN Red Listing process; it can, however, assist and facilitate this process. ConR uses a number of assumptions in order to automate category assignment, especially the estimation of the number of locations sensu IUCN. Notwithstanding these assumptions, detailed above, which must be understood and acknowledged by the user, ConR is flexible in their implementation, allowing the user to explore various approaches and methodologies and to customize values for each option. As shown in our case study on African palms (Table 3), the results of the full and ConR assessments are generally congruent."},{"index":2,"size":20,"text":"The differences observed between them can be linked primarily to the way in which ConR estimates the number of locations."},{"index":3,"size":66,"text":"For example, Eremospatha barendii is known from three collections made at localities more than 10 km apart. ConR thus infers (with a resolution of 10 km 2 ) two locations, whereas in the full assessment, we estimated a single location (because both localities were considered to be subjected to the same threat). Another difference lies in whether locations were used or not for the full assessment."},{"index":4,"size":124,"text":"For example, Eremospatha dransfieldii is inferred by ConR to have eight locations, and it is therefore assessed as VU. However, the subpopulations of this species are severely fragmented (Cosiaux et al., 2017), which also triggers subcriterion \"a\" (Table 1), which was used along with continuing decline (subcriterion \"b\"), and thus the number of locations was not used for the full assessment. In contrast, for some species, ConR indicated a status of CR, EN or VU, whereas the full assessment was LC (e.g., Raphia gentiliana and R. monbutturom; Table 3). These mismatches occurred for species with broad geographic distributions but for which there were few collections (and thus fewer than 10 locations were inferred by ConR), field data provided no evidence of highly fragmented populations."},{"index":5,"size":91,"text":"This case study clearly illustrates that ConR (1) be to fairly reliable preliminary conservation assessments on large datasets, but (2) has limitations when, for example, a species is widespread and common but poorly collected or is widespread but severely fragmented. It is important to stress that the accuracy of the georeferencing in such datasets is crucial for estimating risk. Two recently released R packages, Biogeo (Robertson, Visser, & Hui, 2016) and speciesgeocodeR (Töpel et al., 2017), are designed to help curate and clean large datasets, and are thus complementary to ConR."},{"index":6,"size":77,"text":"ConR will be useful for a variety of applications. First, as distributional data for taxa become increasingly available via large multitaxon databases (Dauby et al., 2016;Marshall, Wieringa, & Hawthorne, 2016;  Second, ConR will also be of value to taxonomists, who are increasingly expected to provide preliminary conservation assessments when describing new species or publishing revisions or monographs. By generating key parameters (EOO, AOO and an estimate of the number of locations), ConR will greatly facilitate this process."},{"index":7,"size":60,"text":"Finally, rapid preliminary assessments of IUCN conservation status based on large, multitaxon sets will support studies on a wide range of subjects such as the evolution of extinction risk within and among clades (Forest, Crandall, Chase, & Faith, 2015;Jetz et al., 2014) and the phylogenetic component of extinction risk within regional floras (Leão, Fonseca, Peres, & Tabarelli, 2014) or faunas."},{"index":8,"size":22,"text":"The ConR package has already been used by the authors to facilitate full assessments (e.g., of palms) and to prepare IUCN Red"},{"index":9,"size":53,"text":"List workshops. Also, ConR has been successfully used as part of an IUCN \"Green Listing\" of Protected and Conserved Areas (IUCN, 2012) for private sector players in order to identify potentially threatened species occurring in their concessions that, after verification, will be the subject of specific conservation management plans (unpublished results). | 11303"}]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 1 ) Figure 1) via the argument DrawMap. A folder is automatically generated with a figure for each taxon. Figures are generated in PNG format, which minimizes output size for large-scale multitaxon studies (each map is on average 100 kb). The figure for each taxon contains a summary of the estimated parameters and the threat assignment, "},{"text":"1 Two examples of map outputs generated by the IUCN.eval function of ConR for two species of Malagasy amphibians that were chosen from the example dataset: (a) Aglyptodactylus madagascariensis and (b) Blommersia sarotra. The top main inset shows a map of the region concerned with the occurrences of the species shown as black dots (records situated outside protected areas) and as blue dots (within protected areas). The delimitation of locations is shown by pink squares and of subpopulations by circles. For the species in (a), the convex hull used for calculating the EOO is shown for the first species as a gray polygon. For the species in (b), the EOO was not calculated because it has a single known occurrence. The bottom left gray inset summarizes all the information calculated by the IUCN.eval function. The bottom middle inset situates the species' distribution on a world map, with red crosses representing its occurrences. Finally, the bottom right inset shows the number of collections per year as a bar plot, when these data are available [e.g., in (a)]. In both examples, the status of the preliminary assessments provided by ConR would be the same as those from the formal assessments res. 2 km) = 140 km 2 Number of unique occurrences = 39 Number of subpopulations (radius 5 km) = 28 Number of locations (grid res.: 10 km) = 28 Number of occupied protected areas = 9 IUCN category according to criterion B: LC Proportion of occurences within protected areas 55the number of records, number of taxa, number of threatened taxa, and proportion of threatened taxa. "},{"text":" res. 2 km) 4 km 2 Number of unique occurrences = 1 Number subpopulations (radius 5 km) = 1 Number of locations (grid res.: 10 = Number occupied protected areas = 0 IUCN category according to criterion B: CR Proportion of occurences within protected areas 0 (b) "},{"text":"Subcriteria/conditions Method in ConR     T A B L E 1 Subcriteria and conditions T A B L E 1 Subcriteria and conditions    used in ConR to estimate preliminary used in ConR to estimate preliminary B1 Extent of occurrence (EOO) Convex hull or alpha hull conservation status under B1Extent of occurrence (EOO)Convex hull or alpha hullconservation status under B2 Area of occupancy (AOO) Grid of user-selected resolution IUCN criterion B B2Area of occupancy (AOO)Grid of user-selected resolutionIUCN criterion B   superimposed on range-wide occurrences  superimposed on range-wide occurrences (a) Range severely fragmented Not implemented  (a)Range severely fragmentedNot implemented  OR Grid of user-selected resolution superim-  ORGrid of user-selected resolution superim-  Number of locations posed on range-wide occurrences and level of threat estimated by mapping  Number of locationsposed on range-wide occurrences and level of threat estimated by mapping   protected areas (see vignette package)  protected areas (see vignette package) (b) (iii) Continuing decline observed, Assumed to be true for taxa with a limited  (b) (iii)Continuing decline observed,Assumed to be true for taxa with a limited  inferred or projected of habitat distribution because of the current threat  inferred or projected of habitatdistribution because of the current threat  quality on habitat, which most likely implies a  qualityon habitat, which most likely implies a   future decline of the quality of habitat  future decline of the quality of habitat (b) (i, ii, iv, Continuing decline observed, Not implemented  (b) (i, ii, iv,Continuing decline observed,Not implemented v) inferred or projected of EOO,   v)inferred or projected of EOO,  AOO, number of locations/   AOO, number of locations/  subpopulations, number of   subpopulations, number of  mature individuals   mature individuals (c) (i to iv) Extreme fluctuations of various Not implemented  (c) (i to iv)Extreme fluctuations of variousNot implemented  descriptors of geographic range   descriptors of geographic range  "},{"text":" ConR to estimate the number of locations (Cell_size_locations and method_protected_area) are customizable by the user, who can decide what cell size to use, whether or not to include PAs, and if so, how to take them into account. Also, if alternative shapefiles are available for the PAs, the user can select which one to use, such as the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA, https:// www.protectedplanet.net). Both approaches used by      Both approaches used by  Definition (IUCN Standards and Petitions     Definition (IUCN Standards and Petitions Features Subcommittee, 2016) GeoCAT speciesgeocodeR RED ConR FeaturesSubcommittee, 2016)GeoCATspeciesgeocodeRREDConR Batch or multispecies  No Yes Yes Yes Batch or multispeciesNoYesYesYes estimates      estimates Extent of occurrence Intended to \"measure the degree to which risks from Yes Yes Yes Yes Extent of occurrenceIntended to \"measure the degree to which risks fromYesYesYesYes (EOO) calculation threatening factors are spread spatially across the     (EOO) calculationthreatening factors are spread spatially across the  taxon's geographical distribution\"     taxon's geographical distribution\" Area of occupancy (AOO) Area within a taxon's EOO that is occupied by the Yes Yes Yes Yes Area of occupancy (AOO)Area within a taxon's EOO that is occupied by theYesYesYesYes calculation taxon     calculationtaxon  "},{"text":"Automatic Red List assessment ConR without PA information Automatic Red List assessment ConR with PA information Two examples of map outputs generated by the map. Comparison of preliminary (ConR) versus full conservation assessments using a case study of Africa palm species (excluding Madagascar). Hyphaene macrosperma, only known from the type specimen, for which the location is very vague, was not included in the ConR analysis (indicated as NA in the table). For Laccosperma cristalensis, a single collection is known, but with precise coordinates, so this taxon was retained for ConR analysis but the EOO was not calculated (indicated as NA) DAUBY et Al.          | 11301 DAUBY et Al.| 11301 18°S 16°S 14°S 12°S T A B L E 3 Species Species Number of threatened species Individual Red List assessment Individual Red List assessment Selected 40 60 80 Following B2 based on EOO Following B1 based on AOO Selected Following B2 based on EOO Following B1 based on AOO 18°S 16°S 14°S 12°S T A B L E 3 Species SpeciesNumber of threatened species Individual Red List assessment Individual Red List assessmentSelected40 60 80Following B2 based on EOOFollowing B1 based on AOOSelectedFollowing B2 based on EOOFollowing B1 based on AOO 20°S Borassus aethiopum Mart.  LC B2  LC B1a + B2a  NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC 20°S Borassus aethiopum Mart.LC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Ouédr. & Guinko 22°S Borassus akeassii Bayton,  LC B2  LC B1a + B2a 20 NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Ouédr. & Guinko 22°S Borassus akeassii Bayton,LC B2LC B1a + B2a20NT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC & H. Wendl. 24°S Calamus deerratus G. Mann LC B2  LC B1a + B2a  NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC & H. Wendl. 24°S Calamus deerratus G. MannLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Elaeis guineensis Jacq.  LC B2  LC B1a + B2a 0 NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Elaeis guineensis Jacq.LC B2LC B1a + B2a0NT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC 40°E Eremospatha barendii 4 5°E 5 0°E CR B1ab(iii) + 5 5°E EN B1a + B2a  EN EN EN B1a + B2a EN EN 40°E Eremospatha barendii4 5°E5 0°E CR B1ab(iii) +5 5°E EN B1a + B2aENENEN B1a + B2aENEN Sunderl. Proportion of threatened species B2ab(iii)      Sunderl.Proportion of threatened species B2ab(iii) 12°S Eremospatha cabrae  LC B2  LC B1a + B2a 100 NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC 12°S Eremospatha cabraeLC B2LC B1a + B2a100 NT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC (T. Durand & Schinz) De         (T. Durand & Schinz) De Wild. 14°S Eremospatha cuspidata  LC B2  LC B1a + B2a 80 NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Wild. 14°S Eremospatha cuspidataLC B2LC B1a + B2a80NT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC (G. Mann & H. Wendl.) 16°S G. Mann & H. Wendl.         (G. Mann & H. Wendl.) 16°S G. Mann & H. Wendl. Sunderl. 18°S Eremospatha dransfieldii  EN B2ab(iii) VU B2a 60 NT or LC VU VU B2a NT or LC VU Sunderl. 18°S Eremospatha dransfieldiiEN B2ab(iii)VU B2a60NT or LCVUVU B2aNT or LCVU 20°S De Wild. Eremospatha haullevilleana LC B2  LC B1a + B2a 40 NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC 20°S De Wild. Eremospatha haullevilleanaLC B2LC B1a + B2a40NT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Eremospatha hookeri  LC B2  LC B1a + B2a  NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Eremospatha hookeriLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC 22°S (G. Mann & H. Wendl.) H. Wendl.     20    22°S (G. Mann & H. Wendl.) H. Wendl.20 24°S Eremospatha laurentii De  LC B2  LC B1a + B2a  NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC 24°S Eremospatha laurentii DeLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Wild      0    Wild0 40°E Eremospatha macrocarpa 4 5°E LC B2 5 0°E 5 5°E LC B1a + B2a  NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC 40°E Eremospatha macrocarpa4 5°ELC B25 0°E5 5°E LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC (G. Mann & H. Wendl.)         (G. Mann & H. Wendl.) H. Wendl.          H. Wendl. res function. The dataset contains distribution information for 201 Eremospatha quinquecostu-LC B2 VU B2a Malagasy amphibian species and 7,657 occurrence records (available NT or LC lata Becc. from GBIF (https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.2tkoae) for Malagasy category by the IUCN.eval function per 0.5° sample units. Becc. amphibians. (a) Total number of species assigned to one threat Eremospatha tessmanniana LC B2 EN B2a NT or LC VU EN VU B2a EN B2a NT or LC NT or LC VU EN res function. The dataset contains distribution information for 201 Eremospatha quinquecostu-LC B2 VU B2a Malagasy amphibian species and 7,657 occurrence records (available NT or LC lata Becc. from GBIF (https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.2tkoae) for Malagasy category by the IUCN.eval function per 0.5° sample units. Becc. amphibians. (a) Total number of species assigned to one threat Eremospatha tessmanniana LC B2 EN B2a NT or LCVU ENVU B2a EN B2aNT or LC NT or LCVU EN (b) Proportion (in %) of threatened species per 0.5° sample units Eremospatha wendlandiana LC B2 LC B1a + B2a  NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC (b) Proportion (in %) of threatened species per 0.5° sample units Eremospatha wendlandiana LC B2 LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Dammer ex Becc.          Dammer ex Becc. Hyphaene compressa  LC B2  LC B1a + B2a  NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Hyphaene compressaLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC H. Wendl.          H. Wendl. Hyphaene coriacea Gaertn. LC B2  LC B1a + B2a  NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Hyphaene coriacea Gaertn.LC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Hyphaene guineensis  LC B2  LC B1a + B2a  NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Hyphaene guineensisLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Schumach. & Thonn.         Schumach. & Thonn. Hyphaene macrosperma  DD  NA  NA NA NA NA NA Hyphaene macrospermaDDNANANANANANA H. Wendl.          H. Wendl. Hyphaene petersiana  LC B2  LC B1a + B2a  NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Hyphaene petersianaLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Klotzsch ex Mart.          Klotzsch ex Mart. Hyphaene reptans Becc.  DD  EN B2a  NT or LC EN EN B2a NT or LC EN Hyphaene reptans Becc.DDEN B2aNT or LCENEN B2aNT or LCEN Hyphaene thebaica (L.) Mart. LC B2  LC B1a + B2a  NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Hyphaene thebaica (L.) Mart.LC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Laccosperma acutiflorum  LC B2  LC B1a + B2a  NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Laccosperma acutiflorumLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC (Becc.) J. Dransf.          (Becc.) J. Dransf.           (Continues) (Continues)  "},{"text":"Automatic Red List assessment ConR without PA information Automatic Red List assessment ConR with PA information  T A B L E 3 (Continued)        T A B L E 3 (Continued)    Following Following  Following B2 Following FollowingFollowingFollowing B2Following    B2 based B1 based  based on B1 based B2 basedB1 basedbased onB1 based   Selected on EOO on AOO Selected EOO on AOO Selectedon EOOon AOOSelectedEOOon AOO Laccosperma cristalensis DD CR B2a NA CR CR B2a NA CR Laccosperma cristalensisDDCR B2aNACRCR B2aNACR Couvreur & Niang.        Couvreur & Niang. Laccosperma korupense LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Laccosperma korupenseLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Sunderl.        Sunderl. Laccosperma laeve (G. Mann LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Laccosperma laeve (G. MannLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC & H. Wendl.) H. Wendl.        & H. Wendl.) H. Wendl. Laccosperma opacum LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Laccosperma opacumLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC (G. Mann & H. Wendl.)        (G. Mann & H. Wendl.) Drude        Drude Laccosperma robustum LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Laccosperma robustumLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC (Burret) J. Dransf.        (Burret) J. Dransf. Laccosperma secundiflorum LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Laccosperma secundiflorumLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC (P. Beauv.) Kuntze        (P. Beauv.) Kuntze Livistona carinensis (Chiov.) EN B2ab(iii,v) EN B1a + B2a EN EN EN B1a + B2a EN EN Livistona carinensis (Chiov.)EN B2ab(iii,v)EN B1a + B2aENENEN B1a + B2aENEN J. Dransf. & N.W. Uhl A2ac       J. Dransf. & N.W. UhlA2ac Medemia argun (Mart.) VU B2ab(iii) LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Medemia argun (Mart.)VU B2ab(iii)LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Württemb. ex H. Wendl.        Württemb. ex H. Wendl. Oncocalamus macrospathus LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Oncocalamus macrospathusLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Burret        Burret Oncocalamus mannii LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Oncocalamus manniiLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC (H. Wendl.) H. Wendl.        (H. Wendl.) H. Wendl. Oncocalamus tuleyi Sunderl. LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Oncocalamus tuleyi Sunderl.LC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Oncocalamus wrightianus EN B1ab(iii) + EN B1a + B2a EN EN VU B1a + B2a VU VU Oncocalamus wrightianusEN B1ab(iii) +EN B1a + B2aENENVU B1a + B2aVUVU Hutch. & H. Wendl. B2ab(iii)       Hutch. & H. Wendl.B2ab(iii) Phoenix caespitosa Chiov. LC B2 VU B2a NT or LC VU VU B2a NT or LC VU Phoenix caespitosa Chiov.LC B2VU B2aNT or LCVUVU B2aNT or LCVU Phoenix reclinata Jacq. LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Phoenix reclinata Jacq.LC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Podococcus acaulis Hua LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Podococcus acaulis HuaLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Podococcus barteri G. Mann LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Podococcus barteri G. MannLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC & H. Wendl.        & H. Wendl. Raphia africana Otedoh DD EN B2a NA EN EN B2a NA EN Raphia africana OtedohDDEN B2aNAENEN B2aNAEN Raphia farinifera (Gaertn.) LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Raphia farinifera (Gaertn.)LC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Hyl.        Hyl. Raphia gentiliana De Wild. LC B2 VU B2a NT or LC VU VU B2a NT or LC VU Raphia gentiliana De Wild.LC B2VU B2aNT or LCVUVU B2aNT or LCVU Raphia hookeri G. Mann & LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Raphia hookeri G. Mann &LC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC H. Wendl.        H. Wendl. Raphia laurentii De Wild. LC B2 VU B2a NT or LC VU VU B2a NT or LC VU Raphia laurentii De Wild.LC B2VU B2aNT or LCVUVU B2aNT or LCVU Raphia longiflora G. Mann & DD CR B2a NA CR CR B2a NA CR Raphia longiflora G. Mann &DDCR B2aNACRCR B2aNACR H. Wendl.        H. Wendl. Raphia mambillensis Otedoh LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Raphia mambillensis OtedohLC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Raphia mannii Becc. DD CR B2a NA CR CR B2a NA CR Raphia mannii Becc.DDCR B2aNACRCR B2aNACR Raphia matombe De Wild. DD EN B2a VU EN EN B2a VU EN Raphia matombe De Wild.DDEN B2aVUENEN B2aVUEN Raphia monbuttorum Drude LC B2 VU B2a NT or LC VU VU B2a NT or LC VU Raphia monbuttorum DrudeLC B2VU B2aNT or LCVUVU B2aNT or LCVU Raphia palma-pinus (Gaertn.) NT B2b(iii) LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Raphia palma-pinus (Gaertn.)NT B2b(iii)LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Hutch.        Hutch. Raphia regalis Becc. LC B2 LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC LC B1a + B2a NT or LC NT or LC Raphia regalis Becc.LC B2LC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LCLC B1a + B2aNT or LCNT or LC Raphia rostrata Burret DD EN B1a + B2a EN EN EN B1a + B2a EN EN Raphia rostrata BurretDDEN B1a + B2aENENEN B1a + B2aENEN  "},{"text":" see also Botanical Information and Ecology Network http://bien.nceas.ucsb.edu/bien/) and online repositories (Global Biodiversity Information Facility, http://www.gbif.org/; Atlas of Living Australia; www.ala.org.au), ConR makes it possible to calculate/estimate key parameters for conducting preliminary assessments of conservation status based on selected IUCN criteria and to provide data on the threat of multiple species for a region, a specific clade, a functional group, etc. The application of ConR to large datasets could also contribute to meeting Target 2 of the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC).  "}],"sieverID":"0ee2d566-87fa-4eec-8046-43aed4676058","abstract":"The Red List Categories and the accompanying five criteria developed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) provide an authoritative and comprehensive methodology to assess the conservation status of organisms. Red List criterion B, which principally uses distribution data, is the most widely used to assess conservation status, particularly of plant species. No software package has previously been available to perform large-scale multispecies calculations of the three main criterion B parameters [extent of occurrence (EOO), area of occupancy (AOO) and an estimate of the number of locations] and provide preliminary conservation assessments using an automated batch process. We developed ConR, a dedicated R package, as a rapid and efficient tool to conduct large numbers of preliminary assessments, thereby facilitating complete Red List assessment. ConR (1) calculates key geographic range parameters (AOO and EOO) and estimates the number of locations sensu IUCN needed for an assessment under criterion B; (2) uses this information in a batch process to generate preliminary assessments of multiple species; (3) summarize the parameters"}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"09f41ddc962924b779247efc4beb9cb7","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/d7dfa5c4-da7e-4e23-9413-0dc7837df485/retrieve"},"pageCount":2,"title":"Ethiopian State Minister for Livestock Development visits ILRI","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":72,"text":"Gebregziabher Gebreyohannes, newly appointed State Minister for Livestock Development in Ethiopia's Ministry of Agriculture recently visited the ILRI campus in Addis Ababa. The meeting discussed ways of enhancing cooperation between ILRI and the Ethiopian government with a particular focus on livestock sector development where ILRI's research is helping people transform their lives through livestock. 'Ethiopia, with its large livestock sector and population, is a very important focus for ILRI's work,' said Smith."}]},{"head":"ILRI geneticist Fidalis Mujibi wins prestigious 'BREAD Ideas Challenge' award","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":87,"text":"Fidalis Mujibi, a Kenyan geneticist working with the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Nairobi, is one of the winners of the 2013 USD10,000 'BREAD Ideas Challenge', announced in July. Mujibi received the award together with American scientist and beef reproductive management specialist George Perry, from South Dakota State University. Their idea is to eliminate the need for liquid nitrogen in livestock artificial insemination services in developing countries. Mujibi and Perry are preparing a full proposal they will submit to the American National Science Foundation in September."}]},{"head":"Real change in food security through innovation platforms, where science marries local know-how","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":82,"text":"Science alone cannot help Africa feed itself. That was a strong message from Lindiwe Majele Sibanda, ILRI Board chair and Chief Executive Officer of (FANRPAN) at the recent Africa Agricultural Science Week (AASW). In a special session organized by the Challenge Program for Water and Food, Sibanda lauded engagement platforms for the efforts they make to bring together local farmers, scientists and others to collaboratively unearth innovative solutions to the challenge of food security, in Africa and the rest of the world."}]},{"head":"Project news","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":13,"text":"International conference features risk assessment of raw milk consumption in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire "}]},{"head":"ILRI and BAIF host policy meeting on small ruminant production and marketing in India","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":88,"text":"On 13 August 2013, ILRI and BAIF Development Research Foundation hosted a small ruminant policy meeting in New Delhi, India. This activity was part of the imGoats project. Over 50 participants were present, in the meeting, which among other findings noted that increased demand for goat and sheep meat offers an opportunity for both smallholder and commercial small ruminant sectors to grow. Participants at the meeting suggested the organization of smallholder producers into self-help groups that will eventually evolve into cooperatives to stimulate linkages with the private sector. "}]},{"head":"ILRI in the media","index":6,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Smallholder farmers in Tanzania can benefit from growing consumer demand","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":60,"text":"Major business opportunities exist for smallholder livestock producers in Tanzania, driven by growing demand for high quality beef and poultry products and a large number of rural livestock-keeping households. A recent study assessed urban and rural consumers' preferred retail outlets and retail forms (different cuts of beef and poultry) as well as their preferences for product quality and safety attributes.  "}]},{"head":"Recent ILRI publications","index":8,"paragraphs":[]}],"figures":[{"text":"A study under the collaborative Safe Food, Fair Food project has shown that raw milk consumers in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire are exposed to the risk of gastro-intestinal infection caused by harmful milk-borne bacteria. Findings of the study were presented at a poster session at the 5th Congress of European Microbiologists (FEMS 2013) held on 21-25 July 2013 in Leipzig, Germany "},{"text":" Porcine diseases of economic and public health importance in Uganda: Review of successes and failures in disease control and interventions  Small ruminant value chains to reduce poverty and increase food security in India and Mozambique (imGoats): Report of the end of project workshop  Valuation of traits of indigenous sheep using hedonic pricing in Central Ethiopia  Effect of supplementation of grazing sheep with groundnut cake and wheat bran  Guidelines on integrating gender in livestock projects and programs  Closing the gender gap in agriculture: A trainer's manual ILRI under the lens "},{"text":" This month we feature livestock in dryland systems Obed Ateka, Program Accountant  Signe Nelgen, Post Doc  Timothy Mutuku, HR Assistant  Elias Damtew, Research Technician  Dereje Legesse, Agribusiness Expert  Yigzaw Dessalegn, Regional Coordinator  Binyam Befirdu, Country Finance Manager,  Wako Gobu, Research Assistant  Zinabu Haile, Driver We said farewell to:  Hailu Kassaye, Reservation and Events Coordinator  Yohannes Derese, Research Assistant  Josephine Mueni Mayale, Financial Accountant  George Omondi Acharry, Research Technician  Samuel Kahumu Mburu, Research Technician  Nancy Awino Ajima, Programme Management Officer  Timothy Kyallo Mulatya, Programme Management Officer  Collins Oduor Owino, Research Technician Read this roundup online: clippings.ilri.org/tag/roundup/ Upcoming events Upcoming events  15-19 September: 22nd International Grasslands  15-19 September: 22nd International Grasslands Congress, Sydney, Australia Congress, Sydney, Australia  17-22 September: International Congress: Livelihood  17-22 September: International Congress: Livelihood 2013 Sustainable livelihood in the tropical drylands, 2013 Sustainable livelihood in the tropical drylands, Mekelle, Ethiopia Mekelle, Ethiopia  23-25 September: CGIAR Science Forum 2013 Nutrition  23-25 September: CGIAR Science Forum 2013 Nutrition and health outcomes: targets for agricultural research, and health outcomes: targets for agricultural research, Bonn, Germany Bonn, Germany  24-26 September: Africa RISING learning event, Addis  24-26 September: Africa RISING learning event, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Ababa, Ethiopia  15-20 October: 11th World Conference of Animal  15-20 October: 11th World Conference of Animal Production, Beijing, China Production, Beijing, China  4-8 November: ICT4ag: The digital springboard for  4-8 November: ICT4ag: The digital springboard for inclusive agriculture, Kigali, Rwanda inclusive agriculture, Kigali, Rwanda Ilri.org/events Ilri.org/events Staff updates Staff updates  "}],"sieverID":"b6c92bd1-0572-4f4e-87d4-34c8326316a9","abstract":"The August issue of 'Livestock Matter(s) presents a round-up of livestock development news, publications, presentations, images and upcoming events from ILRI and its partners."}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"0a286e435bc9a2ed20f697227456c716","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://digitalarchive.worldfishcenter.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12348/549/4174_2017_Bogard_Measuring.pdf"},"pageCount":11,"title":"Global Food Security","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Introduction","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":381,"text":"Malnutrition in its various forms directly affects one third of the global population and combined with poor diets, is the leading driver of the global burden of disease (IFPRI, 2016). At the heart of this problem are food systems which are narrowly focused on maximising yields and economic value, without due consideration of the impacts on human health. Through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the world has committed to ending all forms of malnutrition (United Nations, 2015). Reorienting food systems across all actors and levels, towards improving nutrition outcomes (nutrition-sensitive food systems) is central to achieving this goal, as was recognised in the second International Conference on Nutrition (ICN2) Framework for Action (FAO and WHO, 2014). In line with this, The Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition has recently called for a paradigm shift in food systems thinking away from 'feeding people' to 'nourishing people', emphasising the importance of nutrition as an outcome of food systems (Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition, 2016). This is further strengthened in the recently declared United Nations (UN) Decade of Action on Nutrition 2016-2025 which aims to increase visibility of nutrition at the highest levels and ensure measurement of progress towards sustainable food systems (FAO and WHO, 2016). It is suggested here that a vital advancement in this pursuit lies in valuing and prioritising nutritional quality of agricultural production rather than yields alone. Decision-making at the farm level depends on a complex interplay of on-farm factors including socioeconomic and biophysical conditions; and off-farm factors including access to markets, support services (e.g. agricultural extension), scientific and indigenous knowledge, and policies, rules and regulations (French, 1995). The public sector, non-government organisations, and the private sector all play important roles in influencing such factors and therefore the production systems which farmers choose to adopt. It is envisioned that a clear and simple indicator of nutritional quality could assist decisionmakers, through their traditional levers of influence (such as input subsidies, agricultural extension support, and market incentives), to encourage farmers to improve nutritional quality of production, and therefore progress this paradigm shift. The objective of this analysis is to examine indicators which capture the ability of a production system to nourish the most people which could be useful for decision-making in agricultural production systems."},{"index":2,"size":163,"text":"Food systems can be conceptualised as consisting of all of the inputs and activities required to produce and distribute food for human consumption. Various conceptual models of food systems include several stages such as agricultural production (consisting of a number of subsystems), distribution, and consumption; each of which involves inputs, which undergo transformation and result in various outputs which continue their flow throughout the system (Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition, 2016;Ingram, 2011;National Health and Medical Research Council, 2013). Several authors propose a broader concept of food systems which incorporates nutrition and health outcomes, emphasising the interdependence of agricultural production, food consumption and nutritional status (Burchi et al., 2011;Nugent, 2011;Sobal et al., 1998). An advantage of this conceptual approach is that an understanding of the drivers of, inputs to, transformations within, interactions between, and outputs at each stage of the system allows more effective guidance of interventions at various stages in the system to achieve desired nutrition and health outcomes."},{"index":3,"size":269,"text":"Within the food and nutrition systems framework (see Fig. 1), it is clear that nutritional quality of foods as consumed (the inputs of the consumption stage), in turn (albeit with varying and often considerable processing and transformation) rely on the nutritional quality of outputs from the agricultural production stage (whether at a local or global scale). It is recognised that processed foods play an increasingly larger role in dietary patterns across the world (Baker, 2016). However this should not detract from the fact that many whole foods, such as fruit, vegetables and animal-source foods, particularly in rural food systems still pass from production to consumption relatively unchanged in terms of nutritional value. The premise here is that whilst food processing and markets have a key role to play in improving food safety, reducing loss and waste, improving shelf life and providing convenient and nutritious foods; the basis of all foods (processed or not) must be production of high quality food. There is a large body of literature on methods and indicators for measuring nutritional quality of diets as consumed (see indicators related to the consumption stage in Fig. 1), however, significantly less work has been done on measuring nutritional quality of the outputs of the agricultural production stage. This is because agricultural production systems are not designed explicitly to meet the health and nutrition needs of populations; but rather, to maximise yield and economic gains for producers (Bouis and Welch, 2010). It is anticipated that calls to action for agriculture to become more nutritionsensitive, will not be realised unless a nutritional quality dimension is incorporated into measurement of outputs."},{"index":4,"size":192,"text":"There is on-going tension between the benefits of diverse agricultural production systems and the economies of scale feasible with less diverse systems, for achieving high quality diets (Fanzo, 2017). Greater on-farm production diversity can improve dietary quality of household members (Jones, 2014(Jones, , 2017;;Jones et al., 2014;Koppmair et al., 2017). On the other hand, a more market-oriented approach to production (assuming adequate access to markets) can increase income, allowing the household to purchase nutrient-rich foods (Koppmair et al., 2017;Sibhatu et al., 2015). However, as others have noted, this debate fails to capture the relationship between production and consumption across scales (Fanzo, 2017;Remans et al., 2015). Global food production has become increasingly homogenous (Khoury et al., 2014). In Bangladesh, increased supply of fish through rapid expansion of aquaculture has failed to improve nutritional quality of diets (Bogard et al., 2017). People are eating more fish, but intakes of vital micronutrients from fish have actually decreased, related to the generally lower nutritional quality of farmed species compared to the nutrientrich small indigenous species from capture fisheries. This demonstrates that individual production sub-systems must have an impetus to maximise nutritional quality, irrespective of market orientation."},{"index":5,"size":137,"text":"This study presents a comparative analysis of the merits and limitations of existing indicators that capture some elements of nutritional quality of the outputs of agricultural production sub-systems (individual systems within the production stage of the broader food and nutrition system, Fig. 1). First, a brief summary of available indicators, how they are calculated and a discussion of some of the contexts in which they have been previously applied, is provided. Next, a case study of aquaculture production systems in Bangladesh (as an example of an agricultural production sub-system) is presented as the context for application and comparison of selected indicators. The conclusions drawn from this analysis are used to inform recommendations for inclusion of appropriate indicators in the evaluation of agricultural production sub-systems to maximise their potential to not only feed people, but to nourish them."}]},{"head":"Methods","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":372,"text":"Two comprehensive collections of indicators have been published recently which are highly relevant for this analysis. The first is a user's guide for 33 types of existing indicators that measure the various dimensions of food and nutrition security published by the Food Security Information Network global initiative and essentially provides a benchmark for the adequacy of the food and nutrition system (Lele et al., 2016). The second is a compendium of 58 indicators for nutritionsensitive agriculture published by the Food and Agriculture Organization, which presents a best-practice guide for measuring the impact of agricultural interventions on nutrition (Herforth et al., 2016). An additional indicator (nutritional yield) not captured in the above reviews, but highly relevant to this analysis, was identified in the recent literature and so is included here (DeFries et al., 2015). Indicators from these sources were examined for their relevance in capturing some aspects of food/nutrient availability, access, consumption or utilisation (n = 43). Indicators which capture important determinants of nutrition and health outcomes, but are not explicitly relevant to food or nutrients were excluded from this analysis (e.g. indicators of sanitation, income, women's empowerment). Applicable indictors were then categorised according to the relevant food and nutrition system stage (see Fig. 1), based on the scale at which data is collected in order to calculate the indicator (e.g. the indicator 'availability of specific foods in markets' is based on data collected at the market level, and so grouped in the distribution stage). Indicators relevant to the agricultural production stage were then further examined; indicators (n = 4) which are only relevant in the context of total food supply and therefore are not useful for decision-making around individual production sub-systems (e.g. sub-systems 1.1-1.5, in Fig. 1), are listed in Fig. 1 for completeness, but are excluded from further analysis. For example, a common indicator used by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as a reflection of nutritional quality of the food supply, is the percentage of dietary energy from non-staple foods, with a high proportion of energy from nonstaple foods reflecting a more diverse food supply. However, this indicator does not offer any interpretation of the nutritional quality of outputs from an individual production sub-system, such as a rice production system."},{"index":2,"size":89,"text":"Based on this process, two groups of indicators were identified that are relevant for further discussion as measures of nutritional quality of the outputs of agricultural production sub-systems; nutritional yield, and measures of functional diversity (including production diversity). It is noted that the various indicators discussed here are only relevant to agricultural production that is destined for human consumption and therefore excludes crops such as tobacco, cotton and jute. A summary of each relevant indicator, including a description, method of calculation, strengths and limitations is included in Table 1."}]},{"head":"Indicators of nutritional quality of agricultural production","index":3,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Nutritional yield","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":201,"text":"Nutritional yield is defined as the \"number of adults who would be able to obtain 100% of the dietary reference intakes (DRI) of different nutrients for one year from a food item produced annually on one hectare\" (DeFries et al., 2015). It is calculated separately for individual nutrients, which could be combined into an index score of selected nutrients of interest in a given context. So far, this indicator has been applied to cereal crop production in two studies, one in India (Defries et al., 2016), and one on the global scale (DeFries et al., 2015). A modified version of this indicator was also included in recent analyses Fig. 1. Schematic diagram of the food and nutrition system, including four main stages and indicators relevant to nutritional quality. Source: Authors, schematic adapted from Heywood and Lund-Adams (1991) and Sobal et al. (1998). Indicators from Herforth et al. (2016) and Lele et al. (2016). Note that the schematic is presented linearly, though in reality there are likely to be multiple feedback mechanisms at play throughout the system. a Indicator mentioned only in FAO compendium. b Indicator mentioned only in FSIN technical guide. Indicators with no superscript were included in both sources. c"},{"index":2,"size":15,"text":"Indicator identified in published literature elsewhere, but included here as highly relevant for this analysis."}]},{"head":"Table 1","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":135,"text":"Summary of indicators that capture an element of nutritional quality of food production sub-systems. Indicator Relatively simple to calculate and interpret; accounts for differences in quantities of foods/species produced Needs to be calculated for each individual nutrient of interest so does not reflect overall nutritional quality (across several nutrients in a single score) i = the selected nutrient of interest j is the selected food item DRI for nutrient i = average recommended daily allowance (RDA) of a female (not pregnant or lactating) and male adult, aged 19-50 years Fraction of DRI for nutrient i = contribution to DRI from 100 g of the food item of interest Potential nutrient adequacy (PNA) Magnitude of the fraction of people potentially nourished, weighted by the evenness of potential nutrient adequacy across all of the nutrients of interest"},{"index":2,"size":19,"text":"Captures difference in nutrient composition of foods produced and their relative quantity, across multiple nutrients in a single score"},{"index":3,"size":5,"text":"Relatively more complex to calculate."},{"index":4,"size":48,"text":"Requires data on population which may be a limitation in some contexts. Captures differences in quantities a of foods produced (the evenness in production) Does not reflect differences in nutrient composition of foods produced S j = fraction of the entire population i made up of food j"},{"index":5,"size":18,"text":"It quantifies the probability that two foods randomly selected from a defined population will be the same type."},{"index":6,"size":25,"text":"Nutritional functional diversity (NFD) Diversity of nutrients and complementarity in nutrients among foods produced on a farm relative to nutrient needs for optimal human health"},{"index":7,"size":75,"text":"Captures difference in nutrient composition of foods produced across multiple nutrients in a single score Does not account for differences in quantity of foods produced Δd = sum of abundance weighted deviances Δ|d| = absolute abundance weighted deviances from the centre of gravity dG=mean distance to centre of gravity Modified functional attribute diversity (MFAD) Diversity of nutrients and complementarity in nutrients among foods produced on a farm relative to nutrient needs for optimal human health"},{"index":8,"size":84,"text":"Captures difference in nutrient composition of foods produced across multiple nutrients in a single score Does not account for differences in quantity of foods produced n = number of foods d = dissimilarity between each food i and j (as measured by nutrient composition of selected nutrients using a distance algorithm). N = number of functional units, where a functional unit represents the number of food which are nutritionally distinct (i.e. two foods with the same nutrient composition would be considered one functional unit)."},{"index":9,"size":19,"text":"Rao's quadratic entropy (Q) Diversity of nutrients provided by the system, weighted by the relative abundance of each food"},{"index":10,"size":21,"text":"Captures difference in nutrient composition of foods produced and their relative quantity a , across multiple nutrients in a single score"},{"index":11,"size":101,"text":"Relatively more complex to calculate S = total food richness d = dissimilarity between each food i and j (as measured by nutrient composition of selected nutrients using a distance algorithm). p i = relative abundance of food i a Note that this is dependent on how quantity or abundance is measured for calculation. In some cases, this may be actual yields from the system over a defined period such as a season or year. It may also be measured as the area of cultivation, as was done, for example, in calculation of the Simpson index by Jones et al. (2014)."},{"index":12,"size":17,"text":"of the contribution of different farm sizes to global food and nutrient production (Herrero et al., 2017)."}]},{"head":"Potential nutrient adequacy","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":106,"text":"Potential nutrient adequacy (PNA) is an indicator which builds on nutritional yield by calculating the proportion of people in a population potentially nourished, weighted by the evenness of potential nutritional adequacy across all of the nutrients of interest. For example, a production system which meets the nutritional needs of a relatively constant proportion of people across several nutrients of interest would have a higher PNA score compared to one which meets the nutritional needs of a large proportion for some nutrients, and a small proportion for other nutrients. This new indicator is introduced in a recent analysis of household production systems in Senegal (Wood, 2017, forthcoming)."}]},{"head":"Functional diversity","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":86,"text":"Functional diversity indicators stem from ecological sciences in which they are used extensively to assess the degree to which species or varieties in a defined system vary according to specific traits which influence the functioning of the system. Recently, functional diversity indicators have been applied to the field of nutrition in a handful of studies (summarised below), in which the traits of different species or varieties (referred to as foods from now on in this paper), depending on the indicator, are defined by their nutrient composition."}]},{"head":"Production diversity","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":277,"text":"Production diversity reflects the number of different foods produced in a defined system (e.g. a plot of land, farm or household). It does not consider specific nutritional traits of the individual foods, though greater diversity in nutritional quality is implied with higher production diversity. A positive relationship between production diversity in a farming system and various nutrition related outcomes including; household dietary diversity (Dillon et al., 2015;Jones, 2017;Jones et al., 2014;Koppmair et al., 2017;Sibhatu et al., 2015); household food security (M' Kaibi et al., 2015); dietary diversity of women (Keding et al., 2012;Koppmair et al., 2017;Malapit et al., 2015;Torheim et al., 2004) and various measures of child diet quality, feeding practices or anthropometric indicators (Jones, 2014;Koppmair et al., 2017;M'Kaibi et al., 2015;Malapit et al., 2015) has been identified in several studies though not in all circumstances (Keding et al., 2012;Remans et al., 2011). However, production diversity indicators do not account for variability or similarity in the nutrient profiles of distinct foods. For example, a production system with only a few different foods but with very different nutritional qualities (e.g. a farm producing poultry, maize and spinach) may contribute more to a nutritionally complete diet than a system that includes several foods, all of which are nutritionally similar (e.g. three varieties of maize). Conversely, a farm producing only a single crop e.g. orange sweet potato, may be producing multiple nutritionally distinct food items (e.g. green leafy vegetables and starchy roots), but the production diversity (if counting varieties) would only be considered as one. The counting unit used to reflect production diversity, whether it be species, variety, food, or food group, is therefore critical to appropriate interpretation (Berti, 2015)."}]},{"head":"Shannon diversity and Simpsons index","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":357,"text":"Shannon diversity (also known as Shannon entropy or the Shannon index) and the Simpson index, are conceptually very similar in that they both build on production diversity by incorporating a measure of the relative abundance of foods produced (though they differ mathematically, see Table 1). For example, they offer a distinction between two farms which both produce three different foods (production diversity of 3); with farm 1) producing equal amounts of foods a, b and c, in contrast to farm 2) having 80% of production from food a, 15% of production from food b and 5% from food c. The calculation is based on a simple count of the foods produced in addition to a measure of relative abundance, which may be yields in a defined period such as a season or year, or some other measure of abundance such as the unit area of cultivation. Note that how 'abundance' is measured is extremely important for how results are interpreted. Shannon diversity and the Simpson index are therefore an improvement on production diversity as they allow for differentiation between farms of the same production diversity with a different distribution of individual foods. Similar to production diversity, Shannon diversity and the Simpsons index do not consider differences in nutrient composition of individual foods. Related to nutrition, Shannon diversity has been used in two recent studies; one presents a regional analysis of global food production and supply diversity (Remans et al., 2014); and the other, in relation to global and regional farm size distributions (Herrero et al., 2017). Related to nutrition, the Simpsons index has been used in a study linking farm level production diversity to household dietary diversity in Malawi (Jones et al., 2014). In this study, the abundance was measured as the area of cultivation of each crop, rather than yields from each crop. It is noted that several other indicators such as the Margalef index and Pielou's evenness index are used in ecology which differ mathematically from Shannon diversity and the Simpson index, but similarly capture elements of diversity and evenness; these are not discussed here to avoid repetition (Khoury et al., 2014;Sibhatu et al., 2015)."}]},{"head":"Nutritional functional diversity","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":203,"text":"Nutritional functional diversity (NFD) is defined as 'the diversity of nutrients provided by a farm and the complementarity in nutrients among species [foods] on a farm' in relation to the variety of nutrients needed for human health' (Remans et al., 2011). A system with several foods which are nutritionally similar will have a lower NFD than a system with the same number of foods which are more nutritionally distinct. Calculation of this indicator requires determination of all of the foods within a production system, quantification of the nutrient composition of foods, and a series of cross tabulations of the nutrients provided by those foods. These tabulations can then be used to generate a score which reflects the sum of the distances between foods, determined by distinctness in nutrient composition; a higher score reflects great nutritional diversity. It does not however, reflect differences in abundance or quantity of each food. This indicator has been applied in three studies; one at the farm level in selected villages in Kenya, Malawi and Uganda (Remans et al., 2011); at the household level in Senegal (Wood, 2017, forthcoming); and at the household level in Malawi, applied to home production, market purchases and overall consumption (Luckett et al., 2015)."}]},{"head":"Modified functional attribute diversity","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":105,"text":"Modified functional attribute diversity (MFAD) is a measure similar to NFD, which also incorporates a weighting for the number of distinct functional types of foods produced (two foods with the same nutritional value would be considered one functional type) (Remans et al., 2014). Note that MFAD does not consider relative abundance of different foods produced in a system, rather only the number of nutritionally distinct foods. This indicator has been used in two global studies; a country and regional analysis of global food production and supply (Remans et al., 2014); and a regional analysis of food production relative to farm sizes (Herrero et al., 2017)."}]},{"head":"Rao's quadratic entropy","index":12,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":68,"text":"Rao's quadratic entropy (Q) provides a measure of the diversity in nutrient composition of foods in a system, weighted by their relative abundance or yields. So far, Q has not been included in published analyses relevant to human nutrition, though, it is included here in response to limitations recognised in a previous study presenting NFD and the need for indicators that incorporate relative abundance (Remans et al., 2011)."},{"index":2,"size":16,"text":"Table 2 Matrix of fish species included in homestead pond polyculture systems explored in this study."}]},{"head":"Case study: fisheries in Bangladesh","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":271,"text":"Fish is the most important animal-source food in the Bangladeshi diet, both in terms of quantity and frequency of consumption across all population groups (Belton et al., 2014;Bogard et al., 2016). Fish production systems are in transition in Bangladesh, as they are also globally. Capture fisheries production is stagnant, and demand for fish is increasingly being met by growth in aquaculture (fish farming). Aquaculture production in Bangladesh is dominated by pond polyculture systems (usually a selection of 3-5 carp species) which are mostly for domestic consumption; and shrimp and prawn systems which are largely export-oriented (Hernandez et al., 2017). These pond polyculture sub-systems might be considered 'diverse' because they produce a number of different fish species, but often these species are nutritionally similar and are generally of lower nutritional quality compared to indigenous species from capture fisheries (Bogard et al., 2015). The result of this transition has been that national fish consumption per person per day increased by 30% (from 1991 to 2010, with the largest proportional increase among the extreme poor), but intake of micronutrients from fish did not keep pace, and even declined for some essential micronutrients (Bogard et al., 2017). It is worth considering whether inclusion of a measure of nutritional quality in the research and development phases of aquaculture systems would have influenced the combination of species selected for production. Measurement of nutritional quality (using the indicators described in the previous section) of the outputs of different production sub-systems commonly in use, may provide useful insights into how those sub-systems that offer the greatest potential to nourish the most people could be prioritised in policy and decision-making."}]},{"head":"Methods","index":14,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":304,"text":"The nutritional quality of outputs of 18 distinct pond polyculture production sub-systems (see Table 2) was analysed, using selected indicators; nutritional yield, PNA, production diversity, Shannon diversity, NFD, MFAD and Q. Nutrient composition of fish species used in calculations was sourced from published literature (Bogard et al., 2015). Nutrients examined here; iron, zinc, calcium, vitamin A and vitamin B12 are of public health concern in the context of Bangladesh, based on documented deficiency or inadequate dietary intakes among vulnerable groups (Arsenault et al., 2013;icddrb et al., 2013). Protein, fat and dietary energy are also examined as fish is an important source of these macronutrients. In calculating nutritional yields, instead of using recommended dietary allowances from the USA Institute of Medicine as per original methodology (DeFries et al., 2015), recommended nutrient intakes (RNI) were used, as they were considered more applicable to the Bangladeshi population (FAO and WHO, 2004). Iron requirements were based on 10% bioavailability. RNIs for zinc were taken from the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group, assuming an unrefined cereal-based diet, consistent with the typical Bangladeshi diet (Hotz et al., 2004). The following average daily RNIs for women and men, aged 19-50 years are used in the calculations: energy, 10,700 kJ; protein, 44 g; fat, 80 g; iron, 21.6 mg; zinc, 14 mg; calcium, 1000 mg; vitamin A, 550 µg RAE; vitamin B12, 2.4 µg. Functional diversity indicators were calculated using the software FDiversity (version 2008) (Di Rienzo et al., 2008), with guidance from the user manual (Casanoves et al., 2008). Nutritional traits for each production sub-system are defined as the nutrient composition of each species per 100 g raw, edible parts as a proportion of the average adult RNI. The average household size in Bangladesh (4.5 persons per household) was used as the population in calculation of PNA (NIPORT et al., 2015)."},{"index":2,"size":109,"text":"Management of pond polyculture systems in Bangladesh vary widely in terms of stocking densities of different species, inputs, harvesting and several other factors, all of which influence yields. Therefore, for the purpose of examining indicators, the total yields of small and large fish from pond polyculture systems used are 204 and 1841 kg/ha/year, respectively, the average yields reported in the literature (Karim et al., 2017). Species included in 'small' and 'large' fish categories for the various systems are based on production systems described in the literature from Bangladesh (Ali et al., 2016;Alim et al., Table 3 Nutritional yields and functional diversity of selected pond aquaculture production sub-systems in Bangladesh."}]},{"head":"Production system","index":15,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":82,"text":"Nutritional  , 2015;Roos, 2001). The average yields are distributed evenly across species within a category included in the system. For example, a polyculture system with one small fish species has the same total yield from small fish (204 kg/ha/year) as the system with four species of small fish (51 kg/ha/year per species, a total of 204 kg/ha/year of small fish). This assumption is made due to lack of more detailed data in the literature on species-specific yields of pond polyculture production systems."}]},{"head":"Indicators of nutritional quality of aquaculture production systems","index":16,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Nutritional yield","index":17,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":165,"text":"The nutritional yield of various nutrients for selected pond aquaculture systems are shown in Table 3. The highest nutritional yield for each nutrient are all from systems which include SIS (sub-systems 7-18); whereas, the lowest nutritional yield for each nutrient are all from large fish systems (sub-systems 1-6). This is driven both by higher overall average yields from systems with SIS, and the higher nutritional value of SIS compared to carp. However not all systems with SIS (either mola, (Amblypharyngodon mola); or mixed SIS) have higher nutritional yields for fat, iron, calcium and vitamin B12 compared to carp polyculture systems without SIS. Fig. 2 clearly shows that there is very little variation in nutritional yields for energy or fat, some variability in the nutritional yields for protein, iron and zinc, and much larger variability in nutritional yields for calcium, vitamin A and vitamin B12. From a decision-making perspective, it is likely mainly of interest to focus on nutrients which exhibit greater variability across different systems."},{"index":2,"size":164,"text":"Comparisons between nutritional yields of different systems also elucidate how the inclusion or exclusion of particular species influence nutritional yields of the overall system (Fig. 3). For example, compared to the indigenous carp polyculture system (production sub-system 1), inclusion of mirror carp (Cyprinus carpio), silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus, sub-systems 2, 3 and 4, respectively)all large fish species, notably reduces nutritional yield for vitamin B12; and inclusion of mirror carp and tilapia (sub-systems 2 and 4 respectively) notably reduces nutritional yield for calcium. This is driven by a smaller proportional contribution to total yield from mrigal (Cirrhinus mrigala) which has a relatively high vitamin B12 and calcium content. This highlights that increased diversity in the system may not always increase nutritional quality of the system. Addition of mola or mixed SIS (sub-systems 7 and 13, respectively) to the indigenous carp polyculture system (production sub-system 1) results in the largest increase in nutritional yields, particularly of vitamin A, vitamin B12 and calcium."},{"index":3,"size":66,"text":"Prioritising or selecting one sub-system over another for production based on nutritional yields is not straightforward because there is no single system with higher nutritional yields across all nutrients. This limitation is addressed, however, in calculation of PNA. The lowest PNA score was for production sub-system 5 -mixed carp polyculture with tilapia, whilst the highest PNA score is for production sub-system 9mixed carp polyculture with mola."}]},{"head":"Functional diversity","index":18,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":95,"text":"Functional diversity of selected pond aquaculture systems is shown in Table 3 and Fig. 4. Production diversity ranges from 3 to 9 species, with the most diverse systems being production sub-systems 17 and 18. The Shannon index reflects a combined measure of diversity and evenness in abundance of the different species. For example, sub-systems 2, 3, 4 and 7 all produce four different fish species, but the higher Shannon Index for sub-systems 2, 3 and 4 compared to sub-system 7 indicates that the abundance of the four species in those systems is more evenly distributed."},{"index":2,"size":230,"text":"NFD and MFAD both reflect a similar pattern to production diversity and Shannon diversity. NFD and MFAD are both lowest for the indigenous carp polyculture system (sub-system 1), and highest for the carp polyculture with tilapia and mixed SIS (sub-system 17 and 18). Adding mixed SIS to the carp polyculture system increases MFAD substantially (sub-system 13, 14 and 15 around three-fold higher than sub-systems 1, 2 and 3 respectively), whilst adding Tilapia to the carp polyculture system only increases MFAD slightly (sub-systems 4, 5 and 6 compared to sub-systems 1, 2 and 3 respectively). This reflects the large diversity in micronutrient content that is added to the production system with mixed SIS. Q exhibits a different trend (see Fig. 4e), whereby the carp polyculture systems with mola (systems 7-12) have much higher values of Q than carp polyculture systems with mixed SIS (systems 13-18) and carp polyculture systems with large fish only (subsystems 1-6). This indicates that when abundance (or quantity of individual species) is taken into account, those systems which include mola as the predominant SIS (systems 7-12) are of higher nutritional quality. From a decision-making perspective, in this case, the use of production diversity, Shannon index, NFD and MFAD, would each lead to the same conclusion: production sub-system 18 to be prioritised. However, if Q were the indicator of choice, the sub-system for prioritisation would be sub-system 12."}]},{"head":"Discussion and conclusion","index":19,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":225,"text":"Examination of existing indicators which capture some element of nutritional quality, in reference to the different stages of the food and nutrition system highlights that there are a large number of indicators relevant to the latter stages of the system (particularly the consumption stage), and much fewer indicators relevant at the agricultural  production stage. By applying different indicators to selected aquaculture production sub-systems, it is clear that they capture quite different aspects of nutritional quality, so use of a combination of different indicators is needed for comprehensive evaluation. The purpose here was to identify indicators which capture the ability of a production subsystem to nourish the most people, and which could potentially be useful for decision-making and prioritising of agricultural production sub-systems. Indicators, therefore, which reflect nutrient composition of species produced, diversity in nutrients produced, and the abundance or quantity of those nutrients, and at the same time are simple to calculate and interpret by decision-makers are desirable. Such indicators are of significant value in many countries where agricultural policy is linked to nutrition outcomes, as they offer an objective method by which such policies can be mobilised and evaluated. This is also likely to be of increasing relevance as national level policies are developed in response to the SDGs and the UN Decade of Action on Nutrition described in the introduction of this paper."},{"index":2,"size":581,"text":"Nutritional yields are relatively simple to calculate, and reflect both the nutrient composition of foods and the quantities in which those foods are produced by different sub-systems. One potential disadvantage, depending on the policy context, is that the indicator is calculated for individual nutrients which does not allow for comparison of the nutritional quality of the production sub-system overall. From a policy and decision-making perspective, if production of a single nutrient is to be prioritised, then interpretation is simple; however, given that micronutrient deficiencies rarely occur in isolation, this is unlikely to be of practical use. If the policy priority is to maximise production of several nutrients simultaneously, interpretation of nutritional yields is more challenging. This limitation is addressed in the recently proposed PNA, which reflects the proportion of people in a population potentially nourished, weighted by the evenness of potential nutritional adequacy across several nutrients of interest in a single score (Wood, 2017, forthcoming). The case study presented in this paper demonstrates that an important consideration is the degree of variability in nutritional yields for different nutrients, particularly those which are of priority or concern in a given context (e.g. existing micronutrient deficiencies). Rather than attempting to optimise nutritional yields across all nutrients, it is likely mainly of interest to focus decision-making on nutrients which exhibit large variability in nutritional yields across different sub-systems and, therefore, selection of one sub-system over another is likely to have the greatest impact on the potential of the system to nourish people. An advantage of the various functional diversity indicators is that comparison across different sub-systems is simplified to a single value. The more important question though, is which measure of functional diversity best captures the ability of a system to nourish the most people. The case study presented in this paper shows that sub-systems with the same production diversity can exhibit large variability in other measures of nutritional quality. Therefore, whilst production diversity may provide an indication of nutritional diversity (and the simplest to calculate of all indicators examined here), it fails to capture some important elements. Building on production diversity, Shannon diversity and Simpsons index both incorporate a measure of evenness in abundance of different foods, but neither indicator reflects differences in the macro-or micronutrient content of foods produced in different subsystems. NFD, MFAD and Q do, though, in different ways and with different meanings. NFD reflects the distinctness in nutrient composition of species within a system; and MFAD is weighted by the number of nutritionally distinct foods within the sub-system. Therefore, maximising NFD or MFAD may be an appropriate goal for production subsystems which are the primary source of foods and nutrients for a particular population group (for example, in settings with limited market access where household members rely on own production for consumption). In contrast, Q is weighted by the abundance or quantity of different foods from the production sub-system. In this sense, maximising Q is likely an appropriate goal, if seeking to maximise the potential of the sub-system to nourish the most people, with nutrients of interest. Returning to the case study presented in this paper; had nutritional quality (as measured by PNA or Q) been one of the deciding factors for the kinds of aquaculture systems promoted by the extension services and supported through other policy levers, production systems in Bangladesh would undoubtedly differ from what exist currently. Specifically, polyculture systems incorporating mola (particularly production sub-systems 9 and 12, see Table 2) may have been more actively promoted."},{"index":3,"size":152,"text":"There are several limitations to this analysis. In keeping the focus on the agricultural production stage of food systems, the review of indicators focused on key sources in the food and nutrition security literature, thereby, potentially excluding indicators of nutritional quality from other sources. In the presentation of the case study, due to the paucity of species-specific yield data in the literature for common aquaculture systems in Bangladesh (yields are commonly reported in broader categories such as 'indigenous carp species' or 'small fish'), the sensitivity of the results is limited. Related to this, the production subsystems presented in the case study are realistic of the kinds of systems commonly found in Bangladesh. However, the sub-systems which include mola and other small fish do not reflect 'optimised systems' for which optimal management practices have been developed, under experimental conditions. From a decision-making perspective, this limits the utility of comparing results across these sub-systems."},{"index":4,"size":239,"text":"In reality, there are multiple factors that must be considered when prioritising among alternative production sub-systems. These include the cost of inputs, labour requirements, environmental impacts, yield and market value of the foods produced. Furthermore, decisions about which foods to produce are ultimately made by farmers, based on their own priorities, knowledge, skills and resources. It is impractical to assume that farmers can or will simply shift to production systems of higher nutritional quality, without economic or other benefits. However, there are a number of levers which can be put to use at policy and programme level to influence and encourage certain practices for improving the nutritional quality of the outputs of production subsystems. For example, with appropriate high-level support and capacity development, agricultural extension services, through provision of improved information, training, skills and services can promote production systems of higher nutritional quality (Fanzo et al., 2015). From a policy perspective, the public sector can play a role through the provision of financial incentives, for example, subsidised costs of agricultural inputs needed for production sub-systems which maximise nutritional quality of outputs. Shifting thinking away from 'feeding people' to 'nourishing people' requires a simple measure of nutritional quality relevant at the production sub-system level which can be drawn on to shape policy and decision-making. The indicators presented in this analysis, particularly nutritional yields, PNA and Q are likely to be of significant value as a means to achieving this goal."}]}],"figures":[{"text":" produced by a given entity such as a farm or household Simple count of foods, species or food groups in a defined production system Relatively simple to calculate and interpret Does not reflect differences in quantities or nutrient composition of different foods produced Shannon diversity (H) Number of foods produced by a given entity such as a farm or household, weighted by the relative abundance of each food. of the entire population made up of species i It quantifies the uncertainty in predicting the type of food randomly selected from a defined population. S = numbers of foods encountered ln = natural logarithm Simpsons index (SI) Number of foods produced by a given entity such as a farm or household, weighted by the relative abundance of each food. "},{"text":"Fig. 2 . Fig. 2. Nutritional yields of pond aquaculture production sub-systems. "},{"text":"Fig. 3 . Fig.3. Change in nutritional yield through addition of different species to the indigenous carp polyculture production system (production sub-system 1). "},{"text":"Fig. 4 . Fig. 4. Nutritional diversity indicators of common fish production sub-systems (based on seven nutrients; protein, fat, iron, zinc, calcium, vitamin A and vitamin B12). "},{"text":" Shannon diversity; NFD, nutritional functional diversity; MFAD, modified functional attribute diversity; Q, Rao's quadratic entropy. Note that functional diversity indicators were calculated based on 7 'traits' which are the nutrient composition of species relative to average daily recommended intakes for adults for seven macro-and micronutrients: protein, fat, iron, zinc, calcium, vitamin A and vitamin B12.    Yield      Functional Diversity YieldFunctional Diversity   Energy Protein Fat Iron Zinc Calcium Vitamin A Vitamin B12 PNA PD H NFD MFAD Q Energy Protein FatIron Zinc Calcium Vitamin A Vitamin B12 PNA PD HNFD MFAD Q 1 Indigenous carp polyculture * 1.36 16.33 * 0.84 2.79 * 3.59 17.04 1.27 69.31 1.17 * 3 * 1.1 0.86 * 0.52 * 5432 1Indigenous carp polyculture* 1.3616.33* 0.84 2.79 * 3.59 17.041.2769.311.17 * 3 * 1.1 0.86 * 0.52* 5432 2 Mixed carp polyculture 1 1.39 * 16.11 1.01 2.63 4.34 13.17 0.99 54.38 0.98 4 1.39 1.02 0.76 6888 2Mixed carp polyculture 11.39* 16.111.01 2.63 4.34 13.170.9954.380.98 41.39 1.02 0.766888 3 Mixed carp polyculture 2 1.44 16.30 1.16 4.23 3.74 22.23 0.95 54.38 1.09 4 1.39 1.45 0.79 7047 3Mixed carp polyculture 21.4416.301.16 4.23 3.74 22.230.9554.381.09 41.39 1.45 0.797047 4 Indigenous carp polyculture + Tilapia 1.40 16.84 0.89 2.63 3.59 13.77 1.14 55.03 0.99 4 1.39 1.00 0.72 6606 4Indigenous carp polyculture + Tilapia1.4016.840.89 2.63 3.59 13.771.1455.030.99 41.39 1.00 0.726606 5 Mixed carp polyculture 1 + Tilapia 1.42 16.56 1.02 * 2.53 4.19 * 11.33 0.94 * 45.95 * 0.87 5 1.61 1.17 0.96 6685 5Mixed carp polyculture 1 + Tilapia1.4216.561.02 * 2.53 4.19 * 11.330.94* 45.95* 0.87 51.61 1.17 0.966685 6 Mixed carp polyculture 2 + Tilapia 1.46 16.71 1.14 3.81 3.71 18.58 * 0.91 * 45.95 0.96 5 1.61 1.60 1.01 6971 6Mixed carp polyculture 2 + Tilapia1.4616.711.14 3.81 3.71 18.58* 0.91* 45.950.96 51.61 1.60 1.016971 7 Indigenous carp polyculture + Mola 1.56 18.21 1.11 4.07 4.70 21.17 ^23.32 85.42 2.77 4 1.31 1.45 0.95 20,925 7Indigenous carp polyculture + Mola1.5618.211.11 4.07 4.70 21.17^23.3285.422.77 41.31 1.45 0.9520,925 8 Mixed carp polyculture 1 + Mola 1.59 17.99 1.28 3.91 5.44 17.30 23.04 70.49 2.45 5 1.57 1.62 1.2 23,214 8Mixed carp polyculture 1 + Mola1.5917.991.28 3.91 5.44 17.3023.0470.492.45 51.57 1.62 1.223,214 9 Mixed carp polyculture 2 + Mola 1.64 18.18 ^1.44 5.51 4.85 26.36 23.00 70.49 ^3.16 5 1.57 1.81 1.21 23,230 9Mixed carp polyculture 2 + Mola1.6418.18^1.445.51 4.85 26.3623.0070.49^3.1651.57 1.81 1.2123,230 10 Indigenous carp polyculture + Tilapia + 1.60 ^18.72 1.16 3.91 4.70 17.91 23.19 71.15 2.47 5 1.57 1.60 1.18 22,890 10 Indigenous carp polyculture + Tilapia +1.60^18.721.16 3.91 4.70 17.9123.1971.152.47 51.57 1.60 1.1822,890  Mola           Mola 11 Mixed carp polyculture 1 + Tilapia + Mola 1.62 18.45 1.29 3.81 5.29 15.46 23.00 62.06 2.27 6 1.77 1.77 1.42 23,638 11 Mixed carp polyculture 1 + Tilapia + Mola 1.6218.451.29 3.81 5.29 15.4623.0062.062.27 61.77 1.77 1.4223,638 12 Mixed carp polyculture 2 + Tilapia + Mola ^1.66 18.60 1.41 5.09 4.82 22.71 22.97 62.06 2.90 6 1.77 1.95 1.45 ^23,780 12 Mixed carp polyculture 2 + Tilapia + Mola ^1.6618.601.41 5.09 4.82 22.7122.9762.062.90 61.77 1.95 1.45^23,780 13 Indigenous carp polyculture + Mixed SIS 1.54 18.04 1.07 4.31 4.71 21.89 10.42 ^85.55 2.56 7 1.45 2.42 1.92 12,730 13 Indigenous carp polyculture + Mixed SIS1.5418.041.07 4.31 4.71 21.8910.42^85.552.56 71.45 2.42 1.9212,730 14 Mixed carp polyculture 1 + Mixed SIS 1.57 17.82 1.24 4.15 ^5.46 18.02 10.14 70.62 2.24 8 1.71 2.58 2.2 14 Mixed carp polyculture 1 + Mixed SIS1.5717.821.24 4.15 ^5.46 18.0210.1470.622.24 81.71 2.58 2.2 15 Mixed carp polyculture 2 + Mixed SIS 1.62 18.01 1.40 ^5.75 4.86 ^27.08 10.10 70.62 2.91 8 1.71 2.63 2.18 14,995 15 Mixed carp polyculture 2 + Mixed SIS1.6218.011.40 ^5.75 4.86 ^27.0810.1070.622.91 81.71 2.63 2.1814,995 16 Indigenous carp polyculture + Tilapia + 1.58 18.55 1.12 4.15 4.71 18.63 10.29 71.27 2.26 8 1.71 2.56 2.23 14,712 16 Indigenous carp polyculture + Tilapia +1.5818.551.12 4.15 4.71 18.6310.2971.272.26 81.71 2.56 2.2314,712  Mixed SIS           Mixed SIS 17 Mixed carp polyculture 1 + Tilapia + Mixed 1.60 18.28 1.25 4.05 5.31 16.18 10.09 62.18 2.06 ^9 ^1.91 2.73 ^2.49 15,463 17 Mixed carp polyculture 1 + Tilapia + Mixed1.6018.281.25 4.05 5.31 16.1810.0962.182.06 ^9^1.912.73 ^2.4915,463  SIS           SIS 18 Mixed carp polyculture 2 + Tilapia + Mixed 1.64 18.43 1.37 5.33 4.83 23.43 10.06 62.18 2.65 ^9 ^1.91 2.77 ^2.49 15,566 18 Mixed carp polyculture 2 + Tilapia + Mixed1.6418.431.37 5.33 4.83 23.4310.0662.182.65 ^9^1.912.77 ^2.4915,566  SIS           SIS PNA, potential nutrient adequacy; PD, production diversity; H;          PNA, potential nutrient adequacy; PD, production diversity; H;  "}],"sieverID":"0089c28a-8941-45ee-ab46-b57d5401fc4a","abstract":"Reorienting food systems towards improving nutrition outcomes is vital if the global goal of ending all forms of malnutrition is to be achieved. Crucial to transitioning to nutrition-sensitive agriculture is valuing and measuring nutritional quality of the outputs of agricultural production. We review existing indicators which capture an element of nutritional quality applicable to different stages of the food and nutrition system. Applying relevant indicators from the agricultural production stage to selected aquaculture systems, we compare and contrast their strengths and limitations. 'Nutritional yields', 'potential nutrient adequacy' and 'Rao's quadratic entropy' show particular promise in capturing the ability of a production system to nourish the most people and could be useful tools for prioritising investments and decision-making in the public, non-government and private sectors driving agriculture."}

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+{"metadata":{"id":"0a2bc85dc428b0d6e205dbe258b778fa","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/4110fdd0-e9b0-4377-b883-be8201bfbf35/retrieve"},"pageCount":52,"title":"MƐC, MÄN DE CIN, LÖÖŊ KE LUƆƆI KU KÄ BÏ MUK APIƐTH","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":86,"text":"Wuɔ ye akutnhom de tɔ̈ɔ̈u de kɔ̈th tɔ̈ në kuur de guatema. Paanda atɔ̈ cennë kɔc ye lɔ thïn në kë cïn en dhöl. Wuɔ ye pïïr në mïïth yekkeek puur. Anyuɔl yennë kee miɛ̈thdɛn thiekic de pïïrda ku kee miɛ̈th thɛɛr de kuarkuɔ ku duɔ̈ɔ̈rda. Akutnhomde tɔ̈ɔ̈u de kɔ̈th paanda ee gɔl rɔt ne runde 2011. Kee kɔ̈th kë aa yukku keek tɔ̈ɔ̈u apiɛth: ŋɔ̈r, (pirijɔl), balei, korianda, ŋɔ̈r ke paba (aba), kolobot, anyuɔl, muthëda, gämɛ̈t, ku kɔ̈th ke wal ke tuaany: yïthpiɛ̈ɛ̈rmin, ku carmomile."},{"index":2,"size":58,"text":"Ee kë thiekic arët buk yaa naŋ të de tɔ̈ɔ̈u de kɔ̈th ago aboor ku aluɛkluɛk ke cuɔ̈k riäk ku buk ciɛ̈n mïïth. Aliir ee rɔt waar në kee runkë. Deŋ tueŋ ee bɛ̈n ke ci gääu, nïn kɔ̈k aa ye liɛɛr, thɛɛ ke miäkduur aa ye naŋ kutol liir arët. Kä kuɔn cuk keek puur aaye gum."},{"index":3,"size":20,"text":"Wuɔ ye kuɔɔny de nyïc yök të nɔŋ akutnhïïm ye kɔc kony në käke pïïr yekeek cɔl akutnhïïm ke kuchumataneth."}]},{"head":"Kä buk keek rɔm wuɔnnë week","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":52,"text":"Anhiarku buk dhɔ̈l yennë bɛŋ de kɔ̈th mac thïn në kɔmiönitï, ŋɔ̈ɔ̈r de, ku kɔ̈ɔ̈r de män de cïn ku kuɔɔny, ku lööŋ ke kuëny de cök luɔɔi. Ku lɔtueŋ de. Bɛŋ de muŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï ëbɛ̈n ee kör në akutnhom bï ye nyiɛc ŋɔ̈ɔ̈r ku lööŋ piɛɛth ke mɛ̈c."}]},{"head":"Ye Bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de Kɔmiönitï mac yadë","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":28,"text":"Bɛɛŋ de kɔ̈th de Kɔmiönitï aaye keek mac në kɔc cï röth juiir ke ke ye akutnhom cï keek kuany në kɔc ke akutnhom de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th."},{"index":2,"size":29,"text":"Kɔc ke akutnhom aaye nyïn tïït në luɔɔi de akölriɛ̈ɛ̈c, luɔɔi de ajuɛɛr, luɔɔi de kɔc ke akutnhom, kä ke luɔɔi de puɔ̈ɔ̈r, wëu, ŋɔ̈ɔ̈r ku mɛ̈n de cin."},{"index":3,"size":25,"text":"Cɔ̈t de amat de duŋɔ̈ɔ̈r, amat naa tök në ruɔ̈ɔ̈nic të nɔŋ kɔc ke akutnhom de kɔmiönitï thïït bɛŋ ee luɔɔi de akutnhom de duŋɔ̈ɔ̈r."},{"index":4,"size":38,"text":"Akutnhïïm juëc aa nɔŋiic dïäär ye pur, ku nyïny de kä kɔrkë keek ku luɔɔiden në puɔ̈ɔ̈ric. Në bɛ̈i kɔ̈k yiic, ke akutnhom de ee yaa kë de diäär ke pɛ̈c ku muŋ de kɔ̈th ee kë den."}]},{"head":"Ye Bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de Kɔmiönitï mac yadë","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":14,"text":"Akutnhom de duŋɔ̈ɔ̈r ee nyin tïït në lëk ku piööc. Dhɔ̈l ke luɔɔide ëkë:"},{"index":2,"size":108,"text":"√ Ajuɛɛr de kɔ̈th wääc, ku ëtënnë yennëka yennë kɔ̈th bï keek laar në bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï √ Luɔɔi ku nyooth de dum ke puɔ̈ɔ̈r, në mɛ̈n de cin kennë kɔc ye pur, ku thukuul ke piööc de puɔ̈ɔ̈r √ Kɔc ye pur ku kɔc ke muŋ de bɛɛŋ ke kɔ̈th aaye röth neem bïkkë piöc në röth në nyiɛc puɔ̈ɔ̈r Kɔc ye pur aaye keek miɔɔc në thukuul ke piööc de puɔ̈ɔ̈r, ku akutnhom cï kuany ku nɔŋic kɔc nyic puɔ̈ɔ̈r apiɛth agoo kë kɔc ye kɔc nyuɔ̈th dhɔ̈l piɛɛth ke puɔ̈ɔ̈r ye keek cɔl ɛktɛ̈ncon wäkath ye luui kennë bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï."},{"index":3,"size":26,"text":"Nyïny de luɔɔi anɔŋic löny de kɔ̈th ku dhöl yennëke tɔ̈ɔ̈u, pïïrden, gɛ̈ɛ̈rpiny, jöm den, cäärden, tïŋden, ku kɔ̈th ke nyooth, jön de kɔ̈u, ku tëŋden."}]},{"head":"Ɣɔ̈c ku pïïr de lɔtueŋ","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":29,"text":"Cin de wëu ke yïk ku kä ke luɔɔi aaye keek kuɔny në akutnhom kɔ̈k ku kɔc ke kɔmiönitï në kä ke yïk ku piny ku luɔɔi de cin."},{"index":2,"size":32,"text":"Bɛɛŋ kɔ̈k ke kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï aaye gɔl në wëu lik, cin de 1000-2000 ke dolɛɛr de Amirka. Kɔ̈k aa wëu ke gɔ̈c de luɔɔi dɔm wëu ke dolɛɛr ke Amirka 5,000-15,000."},{"index":3,"size":58,"text":"Ku në baŋdɛ̈, bɛŋ de kɔ̈th acie kör në kä ke luɔɔi ke pɛ̈c, ee kör në kɔc nyic luɔɔi. Thukul de piööc de kɔc ye pur, nacïnol ɛktɛ̈ncon, muŋ de kɔ̈th, ku kɔc ke kɔ̈ɔ̈r de nyïny de kä kle puɔ̈ɔ̈r. Akutnhïim ye kɔc kuɔny ke baai ku kä pinynhom, aaye kɔc kony në piööc ku ŋɔ̈ɔ̈r."},{"index":4,"size":3,"text":"Kuɔɔny den ëkë:"},{"index":5,"size":9,"text":"• Pïïr de tiɔp ku mïïth ye ke com,"},{"index":6,"size":7,"text":"• Mɛ̈ny de kɔ̈th, puɔ̈ɔ̈r ku ɣɛɛc"},{"index":7,"size":8,"text":"• Cäär de kɔ̈th wääc, löc, ku lɛ̈ɛ̈pden."},{"index":8,"size":6,"text":"• Gɛ̈ɛ̈rpiny de kɛ̈ŋ ku muŋden,"},{"index":9,"size":6,"text":"• Juɛ̈ɛ̈r de röth në lɔtueŋ"}]},{"head":"Ɣɔ̈c ku pïïr de lɔtueŋ","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":31,"text":"Bɛɛŋ kɔ̈k ke kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï aaye kɔc ken ke akutnhom kuany cin në wëu në ruɔ̈ɔn thok ëbɛ̈n. Kee wëu ye ke kutkë aaye keek luɔɔi në lɔtueŋ de akutnhom."},{"index":2,"size":51,"text":"Ëkënnë yennëkee nyiɛc luɔɔi de kɔc ke akutnhom nyuɔɔth. Bɛɛŋ lik ke kɔ̈th në kɔmiönitï nɔŋ nyïc aaye naŋ wëu lik cï keek week bennë ke kɔc yaa kuɔny në dhɛ̈n. Bɛ̈i niɔp aaye lööm në wëu thïn. Në nyïnyda, ke pïïr de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï ee tɔ̈ ke: "}]},{"head":"Yïknhial de Mɛ̈t","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":44,"text":"Yïknhial de mɛ̈n de cin kennë kɔc juëc ye pur, ku bɛɛŋ kɔ̈k ke muŋ de kɔ̈th ke kɔmiönitï alëu bï wuɔ kuɔny në mɛ̈ny de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï. Mɛ̈t yennëkee lɔtueŋ de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï ku dhɔ̈l kɔ̈k yïknhial."},{"index":2,"size":49,"text":"Kä juëc thiekiic ke mɛ̈n de yïknhial de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï ee thukul de piööc de kɔc ye pur, kɔc cï keek tääu ke ke ye ajɛ̈n ke puɔ̈ɔ̈r, raan ye kä puɔ̈ɔ̈r cääth (yinïthpɛkta), ku akuthnïïm ye kɔc kony tɔ̈ baai ku kä tɔ̈ në pinynhom."},{"index":3,"size":45,"text":"Wɛ̈ɛ̈r de röth de bɛɛŋ ke kɔ̈th ke kɔmiönitï ee wuɔ kony arëtic në lɔtueŋ. Acukku yök ke mɛ̈n yennë kɔc ye pur röth mat ŋɛk ke ŋɛk ee nyïc, ku luɔɔi piɛth, nyiɛc täk cɔk tɔ̈ në kɛm ke kɔc ku jɔl yaa piöc."},{"index":4,"size":33,"text":"Bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï ee kuɔɔny yök të nɔŋ kɔc ye kɔc luɔɔi nhïïm dhölic bï lööŋ kuany cök apiɛth. Ayennë kɔc nyic ku ka yennë kuɔɔny de luɔɔi kennë wëu yök."}]},{"head":"Yïknhial de Mɛ̈t NYOOTH DE KƆ ̈TH TË NƆŊ KƆC KƆ ̈K","index":8,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":71,"text":"Në ruɔ̈ɔ̈n thok, ke nyooth de kɔ̈th ee bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï kony arët në lëk, nyiɛc tɔ̈ɔ̈u de kɔ̈th, ku jɔl wɛ̈ɛ̈rden. Në ëbɛ̈n ke duŋɔ̈ɔ̈r ke bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï ee nyooth de kɔ̈th juiir të nɔŋ kɔc juëc në kuɔɔny de ɛktɛ̈ncon ajɛ̈n. Kɔc ye pur nɔŋ piɔ̈ɔ̈th bï tɔ̈ nyooth de kɔ̈thic aaye ke rin gɔ̈ɔ̈r të nɔŋ duŋɔ̈ɔ̈r ke thaa de nyooth ŋoot wei."},{"index":2,"size":81,"text":"Naa lɔ kɔc të de nyooth de kɔ̈th, ke kee piath bï yaa naŋ të lääu bennë kɔc yaa cath thïn agoo kë kɔ̈th tïŋ apiɛth kɔ̈th wääc nyoothë keek në kɔc ye pur. Kɔ̈th aa lëu bï keek wäl piny ka tɔ̈ɔ̈ kë në agen nhom, ka tɔ̈ɔ̈ kë wëëthic, apiɛth bï kɔc cuɔ̈k ye guŋ arët të kɔɔr keek bïk kɔ̈th caar. Kɔc ke ajuɛɛr aa piɛth bïk kɔ̈th cɔk ye keek caar ku cɔk kë keek warkeek ëya."},{"index":3,"size":52,"text":"Apiɛth bï cï kɔ̈th nyiɛc looi ku nyooth keek bï yaa riɔp në luɔɔi piɛɛthde ku gɛm cen rɔt gaam. Ee kë piɛth bï yaa caal ke kööl de nyooth de kɔ̈th ŋoot wei. Ariöp de nyiɛc luɔɔi alëu bï cääta kä dɛ̈ piɛɛth dɛ̈ cï juiir cï kë tɔ̈ ke ŋɛk."}]},{"head":"Dhɔ̈l ke Luɔɔi ku Lööŋ","index":9,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":72,"text":"Në gɔ̈c de luɔɔi, we jam wuu naa lëu rɔt ke bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiöniti apiɛth bï naŋ lööŋ ke mɛ̈ny de yen. Nää lëu rɔt, ke lööŋ aa piɛth bï kɔn yiɛ̈n bäny mac baai. Ee dhöl de nyïny de luɔɔi yee bäny looi baai. Në bɛ̈i kɔ̈k yiic, ke bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï acë lëu bï luui ke kennë gam në bɛ̈ny muk baai kä akuma mac baai."},{"index":2,"size":9,"text":"Dhɔ̈l kɔ̈k ke nyïny de luɔɔi de bɛ̈ny ëkë: "}]},{"head":"Dhɔ̈l ke Luɔɔi ku Lööŋ","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":29,"text":"Dhɔ̈l ke luɔɔi ku lööŋ akutnhïïm ke kɔ̈ɔ̈r de mïïth ka akutnhïïm ke puɔ̈ɔ̈r aa piɛth të nɔŋ bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï. Aa lëu bïk keekä kë bɛ̈i:"},{"index":2,"size":6,"text":"• Riëu de löŋ ku gël"},{"index":3,"size":6,"text":"• Kuɔɔny de nyïc ku wëu"},{"index":4,"size":41,"text":"• Dhɔ̈l yennëke kɔ̈th cɔk lɔ thuuk Në bɛ̈i kɔ̈k yiic, ke akutnhom de puɔ̈ɔ̈r ee bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï mat në luɔɔi de puɔ̈ɔ̈ric në ajuiir de agoo kɔ̈th juëc ku bï naŋ mïïth ke pïïr ye keek com."},{"index":5,"size":25,"text":"Apiɛth bï dhɔ̈l ke luɔɔi ku lööŋ ke puɔ̈ɔ̈r yaa kɔ̈ɔ̈ric agoo kɔc dhöl yennë bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï nyiɛc muk apiɛth yaa kuanyic."}]},{"head":"Muŋ de Nyin de Bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de Kɔmiönitï","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":48,"text":"Wuɔ nɔŋ piɔ̈ɔ̈th bï naŋ bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï a yennëka yee wuɔ ye kɔɔr bï dhɔ̈l ke muŋ de nyin de yen cɔk tɔ̈. Ku wuɔ ye jam wuu ka lëu bï dap gɔl. Dhɔ̈l keeŋuan ke muŋ de nyin de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th aa tɔ̈:"}]},{"head":"Kɔc ke luɔɔi","index":12,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":26,"text":"• Nyïc anɔŋ luɔɔi dit të nɔŋ kɔc ke akuthnhom në nyiɛc mɛ̈ny de kɔ̈th bï keek mat kennë kä ke bɛŋ de kɔ̈th. Nyïc athiekic"},{"index":2,"size":28,"text":"• Dɛ̈ thiekic, ee gɛm de bääny, ku nyïc ku tëët de luɔɔi de röthii. Them ba diäär thii ku röör yaa cɔk tɔ̈ në akutnhomic në gɔ̈c"}]},{"head":"Muŋ de Nyin de Bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de Kɔmiönitï","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":3,"text":"Dhöl de luɔɔi"},{"index":2,"size":23,"text":"• Nyiɛc tëŋ de luɔɔi në akutnhom de mɛ̈c ee töŋ de kä piɛɛth ke nyiɛc ŋɔ̈ɔ̈r de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï"},{"index":3,"size":35,"text":"• Dhöl de mɛ̈c cïï kɔc gam në biäk de kä bï keek ya gam ku kuany keek cök në kɔc ke akutnhom aaye lɔtueŋ de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï cɔk cie cath apiɛth"}]},{"head":"Lɔtueŋ de luɔɔi de mïïth","index":14,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":25,"text":"• Bɛɛŋ kɔ̈k ke kɔ̈th ke kɔmiönitï aaye com ku ɣɛɛckë kɔ̈th juëc agoo kë naŋ wëu. Yee kuɛɛr ko lëu bennë wëu yaa yök?"}]},{"head":"Dhɔ̈l ku lööŋ ke luɔɔi","index":15,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":64,"text":"• Në bɛ̈i juëc yiic, bɛɛŋ ke kɔ̈th aaye kör bï keek gam ku gärkeek ke kuɔɔny den de wëu ŋoot. Kɔc ye akutnhïïm ke puɔ̈ɔ̈r kony aacie wëu ken ye gam kɔc kënnë keek gɔ̈ɔ̈r löŋ de puɔ̈ɔ̈r në akuma mac baai. • Löny de mïïth wääc bë keek yaa puur bë keek lööm ku tɛ̈ɛ̈uë keek bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï yic."}]},{"head":"WARAGƐŊ DE KÄ KE THÖK BÏ KEEK NYIƐC MUK","index":16,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":14,"text":"• Cäär de kɔ̈th ku kä bï lööm në ke yiic ke ke piɛth"},{"index":2,"size":14,"text":"• Ajuɛɛr de gäär de kɔ̈th jöt wääc ke bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï"},{"index":3,"size":20,"text":"• Looi de kä ke tɔ̈ɔ̈u de kɔ̈th ku dhɔ̈l yennëke kɔ̈th cɔk piɛth gup ku cin kɔ̈m cam keek"},{"index":4,"size":6,"text":"• Cool në cäär kɔ̈th piɛth"},{"index":5,"size":13,"text":"• Juɛɛr de rɔt në juëŋ de kɔ̈th bïk keek bɛɛr jɔt kɔ̈ɔ̈th"},{"index":6,"size":16,"text":"• Gɛ̈m de lööŋ bennë ke kɔ̈th yaa yök në bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï yic"}]},{"head":"WƐ ̈T 5: MƐ ̈NY DE BƐŊ DE KƆ ̈TH DE KƆMIÖNITI","index":17,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":14,"text":"• Kuëny de akutnhom de mɛ̈ny de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th ka akutnhïïm ke luɔɔi"},{"index":2,"size":8,"text":"• Cäär de cin de kä ke luɔɔi"},{"index":3,"size":14,"text":"• Nyïny luɔɔiduɔ̈n ku yök de kuɔɔny të cennë week gɔ̈ɔ̈r në löŋ nhom"}]},{"head":"WƐ ̈T 7: DHƆ ̈L KU LÖÖŊ KE LUƆƆI YE PÏÏR KU LƆTUEŊ DE BƐŊ DE KƆ ̈TH NË KƆMIÖNITÏ RIƆ ̈Ɔ ̈K","index":18,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":12,"text":"• Thiëc de lööŋ ke baai në biäk de gäär ku gël"},{"index":2,"size":9,"text":"• Yök de kuɔɔny de atëët de ku wëu"},{"index":3,"size":8,"text":"• Cäär de ɣɔ̈n ke ɣɛɛc de kɔ̈th"}]},{"head":"WƐ ̈T 8: BË DE BƐŊ DE KƆ ̈TH DE KƆMIÖNITÏ CƆK PÏÏR NË THAA BÄÄR","index":19,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":20,"text":"• Tä de kɔc nyic luɔɔi, ku dhöl lɔcar de luɔɔi, ajuɛɛr de muŋ de mïïth, ku kuɔɔny de lööŋ"},{"index":2,"size":17,"text":"• Tɛ̈ɛ̈u de pïïr de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th në nhomic në thaa bääric në göl de luɔɔi"},{"index":3,"size":43,"text":"Ëkënnë yennëkee thök de buk Aŋäthku keyee buŋë cï week nyuɔ̈th dhɔ̈l de gɔ̈c ku kuɔɔny de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitiÄ ŋäthku ke we bï tiɛ̈m ku lɔtueŋ në gɔ̈c de bɛŋ duɔ̈n de muŋ de kɔ̈th në ɣɔ̈n kuɔ̈n ke cieŋ"}]},{"head":"TË DE GƐ ̈T PINY DE KÄ THIEKIIC","index":20,"paragraphs":[]}],"figures":[{"text":" Të yennë kɔc ke akutnhom nyiɛc thɔ̈ɔ̈ŋ nhïïm në kɛ̈ŋ kedhiɛ √ Nyiɛc mɛ̈ny de wëu ku kä ke puɔ̈ɔr √ Tïït de nyin në luɔɔi de diäär mɛn ye nyiɛc muk në kɔ̈th √ Mɛ̈n de cin kennë kɔc cï ke kuany ke ke ye ɛktɛ̈ncon ajɛ̈n √ Bï kɔc ye pur cɔk mit piɔ̈ɔ̈th në luɔɔi piɛth në thaa ëbɛ̈n √ Bïï de kɔc në akutnhomic ëmääth √ Nyiɛc luɔɔi në kueny, tɔ̈ɔ̈u yuït de kɔ̈th √ Naŋ mɛ̈t kennë duŋɔ̈ɔ̈r ke baai ku akutnhïïm ye kɔc kony ne mïïth "},{"text":" Mɛ̈t kennë nacïnol gïnbɛŋ √ Nɛ̈m de bäny ke baai ku bäny ke bɛ̈i kɔ̈k √ Ariöp de gɛɛm de rɔt në luɔɔi √ Cɔ̈t në bɛ̈n të de amat de dhɔ̈l ke luɔɔi √ Wëu ye bɛ̈n ënɔŋ akutnhïïm ye kɔc kony ke baai ku kä ke piny nhom √ Luɛɛl de rɔt në ɣän jam "},{"text":"• Cäär de mïïth ye luɔk • Luɔɔi de tïŋ de lɔtueŋ de kä ye luɔk • Tïŋ de kɔ̈th • Lëk WƐ ̈T 2: AJUƐ ̈Ɛ̈R DE MUŊ DE KƆ ̈TH NË KƆMIÖNITÏ YIC • Tɛ̈ŋ de gɔ̈c de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th de kɔmiönitï • Yök de kuɔɔny • Löny de piny luɔɔi de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th • Alɛɛc de nyiɛc luɔɔi de kɔc ye pur në luɔɔi de bɛŋ de kɔ̈th cïk looi • Ajuɛɛr de piööc de kɔc ye pur WƐ ̈T 4: TƐ ̈Ŋ DE NHOM NË WƐ ̈T BA LÖÖM KU LUƆƆI BENNË BƐŊ DUƆ ̈N DE KƆ ̈TH YAA LUUI "},{"text":"  "}],"sieverID":"29b65b0b-54c4-4ac1-8841-63ba911d511c","abstract":"Akutnhom de baiodaibaciti intïnaconol kennë intïnaconol thenta de terapikol agirkalca ee dhɔ̈ l yennë kɔc ke gup thök në liu de mïïth, ku wɛ̈ ɛ̈ r yennë aliir ku alɛ̈ ɛ̈ th de piny rɔt waar, ku thon de kä ye piir ye cil piny ku riäŋ de ɣɔ̈ n yennë pur.Akutnhom ee luui në tök në baŋ de puɔ̈ ɔr, ku mïïth ye kɔc jɔp gup në rim. Wuɔ ye luui wuɔnnë kɔc tɔ̈ baai, ku kɔc juëc kɔ̈ k cï bɛ̈ n në bɛ̈ i kɔ̈ k yiic piny apirka, athiɛ, ku pimy de latïn amerika ku jɔl yaa bɛ̈ i ke karibiɛ. Wuɔ ye luui wuɔnnë akutnhïïm ke akuma, ku kä ke kɔc ye pur cï juiir. Në kee akutnhïïm kë yiic, wuɔ ye dhɔ̈ l yennë ke mïïth juiir kuany yiic ku juirku piny de puɔ̈ ɔr ku konyku kɔc bïk lɔtueŋ apiɛth në thaa ciennë aliir ku alɛ̈ ɛ̈ th röth waar. Akutnom de mat ee akutnhom diit de piny ye dhɔ̈ l ke puɔ̈ ɔr kɔɔr apiɛth ku mïïth puur ago ciɛ̈ n cɔk ku ŋɔ̈ ɔŋ ku bï kɔc naŋ miɛ̈ th ye rim jɔpiic. Wuɔ ye käke puɔ̈ ɔr yiɛ̈ knhial ku cökku ke piny apiɛth.https://alliancebioversityciat.org/ www.cgiar.org Akutnhom de puɔ̈ ɔr, ku rok and kennë dɛ̈ p de rec ee akutnhom de akuma de thäuth apirka. Yeen ee nyin tïït në luɔɔi de lööŋ cï bɛ̈ i bei në kɔc ke ɣön de amat de thäuth apirka. Lööŋke aa yee keek lööm në 27 (1) ku ( 2) në buŋ de lööŋ ke baai yic. Raan ebɛ̈ n alääu bë në miɛ̈ th ye lëu. Akutnhom de puɔ̈ ɔr ku rok kennë dɛ̈ p de rec anɔŋ akutnhïïm kɔ̈ k ye nyïn tïït në puɔ̈ ɔr ku tuaany, ku kee kɔc kony në puɔ̈ ɔr cïnïc riääk ka tuaany ku kä yennëke pur kedhiɛ. Akutnhom ee nyin tïït eya në lööŋ ku dhɔ̈ l ke puɔ̈ ɔr ku kä ye kɔc yiɛ̈ n tuaany ku ka ye kɔc nɔ̈ k në puɔ̈ ɔric ku kä yennë ke pur.Ëlonnë ee CGIAR kony në biäk de puɔ̈ ɔr mɛn ye looi në kuɔɔny ye bɛ̈ n të nɔŋ akutnhom cï rɔt juiir ku cïk wëuken matiic. Kë bïn e nyic lɔɔr https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors. Keekä cï luɛɛl biyickë acie kä ke akutnhom. Gäär de buŋë ee yee kuɔɔny ëbɔ̈ të nɔŋ Minithtirï ye nyin tïït në ka biyic ku kä bɔ̈ thïn de Nethalɛ̈ nb -the Netherlands (dukuny) ku Nuffic (Meŋëm de luɔɔi) të nɔŋ akutnhom cɔl Orɛny Nɔlec (the Orange Knowledge)."}

data/part_2/0a68a16d575f4700c78fe1503c75b511.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"0a68a16d575f4700c78fe1503c75b511","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/4fe75bb8-8182-4e44-9558-b02f4ab29037/retrieve"},"pageCount":1,"title":"Nitrogen Rate and Variety Effect on Profitability of Maize Production in Northern Ghana","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Implications of the research for generating development outcomes","index":1,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Results and main findings","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":54,"text":"o N fertilizer rate by maize variety interaction was not significant. o N fertilizer rate affected grain yield, gross margin and BCR (Table 1). o Majority of farmers preferred applying 90 kg/ ha N to maize than 60 kg/ha N (Fig. 1). o Maize varieties affected grain yield, gross margin and BCR (Table 2)."},{"index":2,"size":46,"text":"o Application of 90 kg/ ha N may be used for improve yield production of maize in Northern Ghana. o DT SR W C0 F2 and TZEE W STR QPM CO may be released as varieties and promoted for improve yield of maize in Northern Ghana."},{"index":3,"size":23,"text":"Results from this study can be used for scaling-up activity in Africa RISING phase 2 to improve maize productivity in in northern Ghana."}]},{"head":"How this work would continue in Africa RISING phase 2","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":1,"text":"The  "}]},{"head":"Current partnerships and future engagements for out scaling","index":4,"paragraphs":[]}],"figures":[{"text":" Africa Research In Sustainable Intensification for the Next Generation (Africa RISING) program comprises three research-fordevelopment projects supported by the United States Agency for International Development as part of the U.S. government's Feed the Future initiative. Through action research and development partnerships, Africa RISING will create opportunities for smallholder farm households to move out of hunger and poverty through sustainably intensified farming systems that improve food, nutrition, and income security, particularly for women and children, and conserve or enhance the natural resource base. The three projects are led by the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (in West Africa and East and Southern Africa) and the International Livestock Research Institute (in the Ethiopian Highlands). The International Food Policy Research Institute leads an associated project on monitoring, evaluation and impact assessment. www.africa-rising.net Current : Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) Future: Agricultural Technology Transfer project (ATT) "},{"text":"Table 1 : Effect of N fertilizer rate on grain yield, gross margin and benefit cost ratio  "},{"text":"Table 2 : Effect of maize variety on grain yield, gross margin and BCR Variety Variety  "}],"sieverID":"2afbf84b-4c83-4fed-988b-097a30881572","abstract":"Split-plot design with 2 nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates (Recommended= 60 kg/ ha N: 250 kg/ha NPK + 125 kg/ha SA as top dressing and Higher rate= 90 kg/ ha N: 250 kg/ha NPK t 250 kg/ha + 250 kg/ha SA as top dressing) as main plot and 6 maize varieties (Abontem, TZEE W STR QPM CO, Abrohemaa, Omankwa, Obatampa, and DT SR W C0 F2) as subplots. Grain was measured and gross margin and benefit cost (BCR) were estimated."}

data/part_2/0ab64292f2c296d87973033eac5a95f2.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"0ab64292f2c296d87973033eac5a95f2","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/279134c3-621b-49e0-8947-66fc43532124/retrieve"},"pageCount":4,"title":"","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"The Global Agenda","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":51,"text":"The Global Agenda provides a platform, regionally and locally rooted, to comprehensively address the sector's multiple challenges towards sustainable development. Its main orientation is based on the UN Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development and aligns all its activities to advance the contribution of livestock to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)."}]},{"head":"This meeting","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":99,"text":"The 7 th Multi Stakeholder Partnership Meeting puts its focus on the multiple benefits that livestock-based solutions can provide for a broad range of stakeholders. This focus is a logical follow up of the 6th meeting held last year in Panama where we developed and demonstrated the links between sustainable livestock sector development and achieving of the SDGs. I look forward to the multi-faceted program of this meeting where, among others, tools to facilitate sustainable livestock sector development will be discussed, cases of practice change will be demonstrated and learning tours will show local efforts towards sustainable sector development."},{"index":2,"size":20,"text":"I encourage all participants to actively contribute to the debates in our many interactive sessions of the 7 th MSP."}]},{"head":"Fritz Schneider, Chair, Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":34,"text":"The Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock addresses global themes that affect us all and it is uniquely positioned to promote the livestock sector -a sector that generates widespread benefits for people and the planet."},{"index":2,"size":66,"text":"Livestock play an important role in Ethiopia and in countries across the world. The benefits to people are many. Livestock help in our fight to end hunger and poverty as well as to improve food security, nutrition and health. Farmed and herded animals can support peace and gender equity. Livestock can also help address environmental issues -from land degradation and biodiversity loss to climate change mitigation."},{"index":3,"size":15,"text":"At FAO we promote better recognition of the economic, social and environmental benefits of livestock."},{"index":4,"size":64,"text":"We look forward to engaging with you this week to jointly assess livestock-based solutions to sustainable development. It is a great opportunity to unlock the potential of Ethiopia's livestock sector where the main economic activity is agriculture of which livestock plays a very important role. Ethiopia is home to Africa's largest livestock population and it is among the continent's top livestock producers and exporters."}]},{"head":"Eduardo","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":24,"text":"This meeting gives us a chance to bring together a wide range of stakeholders to showcase Ethiopia's livestock productivity growth to help alleviate poverty."}]},{"head":"HE Dr. Misrak Mekonnen, State Minister, Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":42,"text":"Welcome from ILRI For the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), it is a real pleasure to join with its host government, Ethiopia and with FAO to welcome participants to this 7 th Multi-Stakeholder Partnership meeting of the Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock."},{"index":2,"size":10,"text":"The Global Agenda is special for ILRI from many perspectives:"},{"index":3,"size":46,"text":"• ILRI is among the 'founding members' having been part of early meetings and with ILRI's Director General, Jimmy Smith a member of the initial steering committee that really got the Agenda underway. Since then, ILRI scientists have participated in every MSP meeting around the World."},{"index":4,"size":19,"text":"• ILRI is a member of the guiding group, and participates in the clusters for research/academia and multi-lateral organisations"},{"index":5,"size":64,"text":"• The Global Agenda provides a forum for ILRI to move from theory to practise in an area that has become increasingly important for the institute in recent years, the interface with development, public and private sector organisations that is mandatory if ILRI's research solutions are to be taken up and to result in better lives through livestock for many millions across the World."},{"index":6,"size":33,"text":"• It also ensures that ILRI is in a place to listen to the needs of many valuable stakeholders and to ensure that its research agenda is informed by their needs and experiences "}]},{"head":"Clusters and networks","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":36,"text":"The Global Agenda comprises members organized in seven cluster groups: Governments, civil society, community-based organizations, private sector, donors, research/academia, NGOs and inter-governmental organizations. These are intended to link related members and support collaboration across the GASL."},{"index":2,"size":43,"text":"These clusters are shown on the badges of all participants -as a way to represent the multistakeholder nature of the Global Agenda and to facilitate linkages. During the meeting, several clusters will meet up to discuss their work. Check the program for details."},{"index":3,"size":102,"text":"Member organizations also participate in action networks within the Global Agenda. These aim to build knowledge and share learning across the GASL, conducting analyses and reviews, developing guidelines for good practice, supporting implementation of good practices and documenting and communicating specific experiences and recommendations. All the action networks will participate in the case study session on day 2; many will also share their insights in the sharefair on Thursday afternoon. Some of the networks will hold meetings during the week; several new networks are also being formed and they welcome participation from interested GASL members and partners. See the program for details."},{"index":4,"size":5,"text":"Sharefair: livestock solutions close up"}]},{"head":"Our SDG focus","index":7,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":49,"text":"This meeting aims to explicitly examine and synthesize experiences and lessons with livestock-based solutions for sustainable development. We have set up the various sessions this week to link these to different sustainable development goals (SDG). We will be working with a subset of the goals to deepen the lessons-learning."},{"index":2,"size":96,"text":"The SDGs that we focus on are derived from the 2016 Panama Global Agenda meeting which looked at the links between sustainable livestock sector development and achievement if the SDGs. At that meeting, all SDGs were seen as important and relevant to livestock. However, several were prioritized by participants: SDG 1 (no poverty), SDG 2 (zero hunger), SDG 3 (good health and well-being), SDG 5 (gender equality), SDG 8 (decent work and economic growth), SDG 12 (responsible consumption and production), SDG 13 (climate action), SDG 15 (life on land) and SDG 17 (partnership for the goals)."},{"index":3,"size":35,"text":"After three days of intense discussion into plenary presentations, interactive group session and field trips, the GASL sharefair on Thursday will offer participants a broad array of media to learn about livestock solutions for development."},{"index":4,"size":15,"text":"There will be videos, posters, a market, technology demonstrations, live animals and animal health products."},{"index":5,"size":39,"text":"Development specialists and scientists will be there in person to explain their methodologies, discuss the success of their livestock interventions and solutions, and explain how their approaches can make a difference in the lives of millions of people worldwide."},{"index":6,"size":48,"text":"This will not just be a passive 'visit'. The sharefair is an integral part of the meeting where we have designed a process for participants to work together in groups to identify and prioritize sustainable livestock-based solutions, so we can feed the insights into the final plenary session."},{"index":7,"size":21,"text":"After some short targeted work on these assignments, participants are free to mix, mingle and network in a perfect networking environment."},{"index":8,"size":30,"text":"We have organized many such events at ILRI and the format has often been singled out as a significant positive contribution to events like the one we are engaged in."}]}],"figures":[{"text":" Arce Díaz, Animal Production and Health Division, FAO On behalf of the local organzing committee, my Ministry and the Ethiopian government, I am pleased to welcome you to the 7 th Multi-stakeholder Partnership meeting of the Global Agenda. "},{"text":"  "}],"sieverID":"d746a7ed-44ac-45d9-8304-9d775c0fbb09","abstract":"The 7 th MSP meeting of the Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock achieving multiple benefits through livestock-based solutions Bienvenido I am very happy to welcome you to the 7 th Multi-Stakeholder Partnership (MSP) meeting of the Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock in Addis Ababa from 8 to 12 May 2017."}

data/part_2/0ac279aa8ff614ad634d318a899ee5b7.json

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+{"metadata":{"id":"0ac279aa8ff614ad634d318a899ee5b7","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/9f2afa90-b518-45f3-b040-2b92b7421976/retrieve"},"pageCount":6,"title":"Papa Andina Innovation Brief 4 Building capacity for market-chain innovation in Uganda","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Key actors","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":349,"text":"Five main groups of actors were involved in the PMCA introduction processes. The fi rst group included the eight local facilitators of the PMCA process, who were based in diff erent R&D organizations. These facilitators -all women -played the role of \"innovation brokers\" in articulating potential demands for innovations, facilitating linkages among relevant actors, and managing innovation processes. The second group included the market chain actors who participated in the commodity group meetings and related activities. Each commodity group included of 20 to 40 market chain actors (farmers, processors, traders) and other interested stakeholders in the commodity chain. In total, more than 100 market chain actors -including representatives of farmers' groups, local market agents, processors, managers of urban markets, and exportersparticipated in the commodity group meetings. Some of those who were active early in the process dropped out later; whereas others joined or became active later on. Relatively few market agents participated throughout the entire process, and those who did gained considerable infl uence in their group. The third group was made up of service providers -such as university-based researchers and specialists in processing, packaging, and product standardizing -who were brought in, to support the commodity groups develop new products or improve existing ones. The fourth group included the PMCA specialists from Papa Andina and CIP who provided training and coaching and backstopped the process. Finally, the fi fth group was composed by key individuals who played the role of \"champions, \" including: key donors who took the lead in introducing and supporting the PMCA in Uganda (especially the leaders of the DFID Crop Post-Harvest Programme); managers who took the risk to try out the PMCA in their organizations and encourage its use (such as Peter Lusembo of National Agricultural Research Institute); facilitators who worked long hours with little remuneration, remained loyal to the PMCA when no funding was available, and continued to support innovation processes after completion of the PMCA exercise; and market-chain actors, such as those at TomCris and Sulma Foods who were among the earliest and most aggressive innovators, both during and after the PMCA exercise."},{"index":2,"size":44,"text":"largest producer of sweet potatoes. Potatoes and vegetables are increasingly important income earners, especially for women who grow these crops on small plots. However, these crops received little attention in agricultural and rural development initiatives, and the market chains were riddled with ineffi ciencies."},{"index":3,"size":20,"text":"In this context, the PMCA brought new hope for market development that would benefi t producers, market agents, and consumers."},{"index":4,"size":65,"text":"Motivated Product shelf life was studied as well as consumer tastes and preferences and product acceptability. After seven months, a number of innovations were ready to be presented as prototypes for commercial products. A large public event was held for the three commodity groups to offi cially launch their innovations. This fi nal event marked the formal end of this initial PMCA application in Uganda."},{"index":5,"size":37,"text":"\"While I am myself a biological scientist, I have come to realize that all our work must be driven by the market. If the farmer cannot sell what we help him produce, we haven't really helped him.\""},{"index":6,"size":8,"text":"Peter Lusembo, Director, Mukono Zonal Agricultural R&D Institute"}]},{"head":"Follow-up after the PMCA","index":2,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":46,"text":"The innovation processes triggered by the PMCA have continued up to the present. Processors have continued to improve their products and to develop new ones. They have also explored new arrangements for acquiring needed supplies of agricultural commodities and for marketing their products. Several of the"}]},{"head":"Results","index":3,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Changes in knowledge, attitudes, and skills","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":83,"text":"The PMCA exercise contributed to increase participants' knowledge, skills, and social networks, and stimulated a number of commercial, technological and institutional innovations. The market chain actors appreciated gaining access to R&D professionals and the information they can provide. Farmers appreciated quick responses to their queries, businessmen valued interacting with policy makers, \"Whenever I came to these meetings, I got new ideas, knowledge, and approaches, and when I went to the fi eld, people wondered where I got them. They thought I'd been abroad!\""},{"index":2,"size":45,"text":"Sylvester Nganda, Uganda National Farmers Federation facilitators have supported these innovators by providing, or arranging access to, technical support and other resources for product improvement, training potential PMCA facilitators, and development of funding proposals for R&D organizations that needed external resources to apply the PMCA."},{"index":3,"size":137,"text":"and people generally considered it fulfi lling to jointly develop business opportunities in market chains. Knowledge obtained from the PMCA process has been treasured and continues to be used by many of those involved. Sulma foods, for example, values the feedback it obtained from customers and now endeavors to obtain consumer views before launching new products, labels or packaging. Actors representing diff erent links in the market chain, now have a better understanding of the other actors involved in the chain, and of their needs, interests, and challenges. These new understandings have helped change peoples' perceptions of one another, reducing the mistrust that is endemic in these market chains, and paving the way for joint problem solving. Many of the relationships developed during the initial PMCA exercise continue to provide a base for collective action and innovation."}]},{"head":"Commercial, institutional, and technological innovations","index":5,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":172,"text":"The innovations triggered by the PMCA are presented in Table 1. Packaging, labeling and branding were improved for potato crisps, orange-fl eshed sweet potato (OFSP) fl our and tomato sauce. New products were developed, including OFSP crisps, a hot pepper appetizer and a pickle. A new sweet potato variety was positioned in a large supermarket, and a portable kiosk was used to promote and market OFSP products. Contractual relationships were developed between smallholder potato farmers and urban processors. Some of the original innovations, including OFSP crisps and one brand of OFSP fl our, did not prove to be commercially viable. On the other hand, some others are still in use (for example, a second brand of OFSP fl our) and others have evolved over time to better match changing market conditions. For example, diff erent brands of potato crisps have been developed for diff erent market segments. Some of the original innovations have motivated entrepreneurs to develop entirely new products, such as sliced and dried hot peppers, which are now being exported."},{"index":2,"size":44,"text":"Table 1. Innovations in the potato, sweet potato, and vegetable market chains, Uganda \"The PMCA has demonstrated that with a small amount of money, you can get many people along the market chain to work together to generate ideas that will benefi t all.\""},{"index":3,"size":115,"text":"James Ssemwanga, Ssemwanga Group The increasing ability of women to enter into new marketspreviously considered largely the domain of men -has been an important result of the PMCA for many women. Women who began to sell their OFSP vines, roots and processed products to institutional and peri-urban markets have increased their incomes and status as contributors to family income and resources. The PMCA facilitators gained valuable communication and leadership skills, acquired new contacts, and developed new professional networks. They learned to apply the PMCA and to function as \"innovation brokers\", stimulating multi-stakeholder processes that generated commercial, institutional and technical innovations. These new assets have allowed several of them to upgrade their professional activities and positions. "}]},{"head":"Conclusions and areas for improvement","index":6,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":216,"text":"Results of the eff ort to introduce the PMCA and develop capacity for market chain innovation in Uganda have far surpassed the initial expectations. The PMCA has triggered commercial, institutional, and technical innovation processes that continue until the present. Commercial innovations include a number of new products that are sold in small food stores or supermarkets in Uganda and abroad. Amongst the market chain actors, the ability to innovate and change their products in line with the dynamic market conditions warrants special mention. The actors have testifi ed that such skills are invaluable, as innovations are constantly called for if one is to survive in the market. The experiences of R&D institutions that have continued to work with the PMCA should help to refi ne and adapt the approach to local contexts. In addition, a cadre of facilitators is slowly being built in these institutions by the initial PMCA facilitators who are now viewed as 'experts' of the process. Gradually, capacity is being built up to expand use of the PMCA in Uganda and neighboring countries, where it should play an expanding role in the development of market chains for the betterment of smallholder farmers and the agricultural economy as a whole. Experience with the PMCA in Uganda indicates that the approach could be improved by:"}]}],"figures":[{"text":" Improved packaging and branding of a Ugandan potato crisp product (\"TomCris\") Sealing machine for packaging Contract arrangements between TomCris and farmers group Sorting & grading of potatoes for crisp production New OFSP crisp (\"TomCris\") New variety (Naspot1) marketed in Uchumi supermarket and exported Marketing concept for composite fl our with OFSP: Two brands (SOSPPA and Kasawo) Improved packaging for OFSP composite fl our Marketing kiosk for selling clean, sorted, and graded sweet "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"  "},{"text":"development strategy Introduction of the PMCA into Uganda involved Earlier DFID-supported R&D eff orts had been stymied by marketing problems. In 2005, Papa Andina partnered with the Regional Potato and Sweet Potato Improvement Network in Eastern and Central Africa (PRAPACE) and with several local R&D organizations to introduce the PMCA. At the request of the Ugandan partners, the scope of the exercise was broadened beyond sweet potato to include potato, tomato and hot pepper. When the DFID funding ran out at the end of Phase 1, CIP and the local PMCA team had to acquire funding support for Phases 2 and 3.Funding was obtained from CIP, Papa Andina and the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA) through a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) project. knowledge sharing between individuals who had developed and worked with the PMCA in Peru and Bolivia and individuals who wanted to try out this new approach in Uganda. The capacity-development strategy had the following components: • An initial institutional survey, to identify and engage relevant local R&D actors in the PMCA process • Participatory planning and decision making • A study visit for a group of Ugandans to Peru and Bolivia • Adaptation of the PMCA User Guide to Ugandan context A member of the CGIAR Consortium • Backstopping and coaching provided by PMCA specialists based at vegetable market chains • Knowledge sharing among the three commodity teams CIP in Peru potato market chain. Capacity-• Action-oriented PMCA training workshops involving visits to • Learning-oriented evaluations to improve the work, document A member of the CGIAR Consortium • Backstopping and coaching provided by PMCA specialists based at vegetable market chains • Knowledge sharing among the three commodity teams CIP in Peru potato market chain. Capacity-• Action-oriented PMCA training workshops involving visits to • Learning-oriented evaluations to improve the work, document markets and processing facilities markets and processing facilities • Establishment of three commodity groups that learned by • Establishment of three commodity groups that learned by working with the PMCA in the potato, sweet potato, and working with the PMCA in the potato, sweet potato, and Papa Andina Papa Andina Innovation Briefs Innovation Briefs 1. The Participatory Market 1. The Participatory Market Chain Approach: from the Chain Approach: from the Andes to Africa and Asia Andes to Africa and Asia 2. Peru's native potato 2. Peru's native potato revolution revolution 3. The PMCA and potato 3. The PMCA and potato market chain innovation market chain innovation in Peru in Peru  "},{"text":" by promising results with the PMCA in the Andes, the now-ended Crop Post-Harvest Programme funded by the Department for International Development of the United Kingdom (DFID), off ered to fund Phase 1 of the PMCA in Uganda's sweet Work with the PMCA began in 2005 when the PRAPACE coordinator explored the interest of Ugandan R&D organizations to work with the PMCA and assessed their capacity to do so eff ectively. This was followed by a study visit to Peru and Bolivia for 17 Ugandans, many of who later served as facilitators in the PMCA exercise. Upon return to Uganda, three commodity groups were formed to carry out a diagnostic study of the market chains for potatoes, sweet potatoes, and vegetables. Study results were shared among the participating R&D organizations and market chain actors at a workshop, designed to draw lessons from the process. This offi cially ended Phase 1 and pave the way for Phase 2. One issue that needed resolution was the lack of resources, as DFID support was only for Phase 1. Work commenced in 2006 after CIP and Papa Andina agreed to provide the needed funding. The focus was on identifying and analyzing potential market opportunities that the commodity groups could develop jointly. Facilitated group meetings improved relationships and trust among the market chain actors, allowing them to work together. Promising business opportunities were presented to stakeholders and potential supporters at public events in August 2008. After completion of Phase 2, there was a six-month break in activities, due to lack of funding. After ASARECA agreed to provide funding, Phase 3 began in February 2007. The market opportunities for each commodity were re-assessed based on results from rapid market studies and focus groups. Small groups were formed to work on various aspects of business planning, which reported back to the larger commodity group. As innovations started taking shape, subject matter specialists were invited to provide advice related to food technology, labeling, packaging, and other product improvement related subjects. Timeline Timeline Implementing the PMCA Implementing the PMCA Phase 1. Phase 2. Phase 3. Phase 1. Phase 2. Phase 3.  "},{"text":"Exporters Continuing relevance and use of the PMCA The PMCA facilitators have formed an \"We've been telling government that we need R&D to work together with the private sector. Thanks to the PMCA, we've built a platform for R&D where we can get answers to our questions and needs. I always tell my colleagues that when they have a problem they should tell me, and I know where to go for the solution -to the PMCA fraternity.\" informal 'community of practice' for exchanging experiences, providing mutual support, and promoting the PMCA in Uganda and in neighboring countries. They are always on the lookout for opportunities and have developed successful proposals for PMCA capacity building and use in several commodity chains. The Africa 2000 Network in Uganda 2 employed the PMCA in a cassava value chain project in Eastern Uganda. The Mukono Zonal Agricultural Research and Development Institute 3 (MUZARDI) used the PMCA in a pineapple project in Central, Eastern and Western Uganda. A USAID-supported collaborative horticulture research project led by MUZARDI is applying the PMCA in Central Uganda and plans to expand work to the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Participatory Ecological Land Use Management organization (Pelum) 4 has provided PMCA training for R&D professionals in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has provided PMCA training for Farmer Field School facilitators. In Uganda and Kenya, Pelum members have applied Phase 1 of the PMCA in the grain amaranth and maize commodity chains. Uganda has completed Phase 2, but work in Kenya was truncated by the lack of resources. The relatively greater success in Uganda is probably because of easier access to PMCA trainers/facilitators, who have helped the process and provided support from time to time, pro bono. CIP, through an ASARECA-funded project is currently supporting use of PMCA in market chains for orange-fl eshed sweetpotatoes in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Papa Andina Innovation Brief 4 Papa Andina Innovation Brief 4 2. www.a2n.org.ug. 2. www.a2n.org.ug. 3. www.naro.go.ug/Institute/Mukono/home.html. 3. www.naro.go.ug/Institute/Mukono/home.html. 4. http://aros.trustafrica.org/index.php/Participatory_Ecological_Land_Use_ 4. http://aros.trustafrica.org/index.php/Participatory_Ecological_Land_Use_ Management_(PELUM). Management_(PELUM).  "}],"sieverID":"63fc5806-e00d-42f2-a895-f7a31ef05b6e","abstract":"In Uganda, agricultural development is taking place in the context of rapid urbanization and market integration. The livelihoods of small farmers are increasingly infl uenced by the demands of urban consumers, market intermediaries, and food industries. Agriculture accounts for over 20% of Uganda's GDP and employs nearly 75% of the work force. Smallholders have limited knowledge of consumers' needs and demands, and limited capacity to negotiate with larger and better-informed market intermediaries. Processors and traders are often frustrated by the irregular and poor-quality supplies of produce from small farmers and by high transaction costs. These conditions limit the participation of small farmers in high-value markets and the benefi ts they derive from marketing. Potatoes, sweet potatoes, and vegetables are important crops for smallholder farmers, in both nutritional and economic terms. Uganda is the world's second Through South-South collaboration, the Participatory Market Chain Approach (PMCA) was introduced and applied in the potato, sweet potato and vegetable market chains in Uganda in 2005-2007. Eight women from diff erent Ugandan Research and Development (R&D) organizations led and facilitated application of the PMCA. Training, coaching and backstopping were provided by PMCA specialists from the International Potato Center (CIP) in Lima, Peru. Studies in 2007 and 2011 indicate that involvement in the PMCA helped R&D professionals and market chain actors to identify areas for improving market chains and work together to develop new products, processes, and institutional arrangements.Participation also strengthened inter-personal networks across the public and private sectors. As a result, the capacity for innovation in agricultural market chains was enhanced. The PMCA triggered commercial, technological and institutional innovation processes that continue until the present. While some early innovations have disappeared, others continue to be used, and several second or third generation innovations have improved on the original ones. Women farmers, processors, and market agents have increased their incomes and acquired productive assets, including land. The PMCA facilitators upgraded their communication and facilitation skills and learned a new R&D approach, which many have put to use in their professional lives. Several individuals and organizations have incorporated the PMCA into their activities. The authors suggest three ways to improve future applications of the PMCA: (1) provide business development services to entrepreneurs after completing the PMCA; (2) provide support for smallholder farmers to improve their capacity to respond to changing market demands; and (3) develop more adequate and sustainable funding and institutional arrangements for innovation facilitators."}