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The Christie administration brushes aside accusations of its involvement in causing the gridlock as an absurd conspiracy theory, but the Journal continues to pursue the story, and other outlets follow. Legislative hearings are called, subpoenas are issued, and the governor and his aides hold crisis-management meetings. As late as December 2, Christie is still trying to laugh off suggestions of retaliation. “I worked the cones, actually,” he says sarcastically at a press conference. “Unbeknownst to everybody, I was actually the guy out there in overalls and a hat.”
One day, Wildstein disappears from his office at the Port Authority headquarters, never to return. He can hear the cellos.
In early December, the dormant Wikipedia account Montclair0055 — whose sparse prior contributions include creating a page for the state senator who gave Wildstein his first paying job at age 12 and laudatory additions to the entries for Baroni and DuHaime — stirs to life. As the clamor of the investigation intensifies, ­Montclair0055 writes late into the night on subjects that mirror Wildstein’s obsessions, adding a critical entry for an obscure Democratic Party hack who was one of Wally Edge’s favorite targets and another about “the Curse of the 38th,” a phrase (used exclusively on PoliticsNJ) to describe the voting history of a Bergen County legislative district. The editor revises the page of Steve Kornacki to note that he got his start at PoliticsNJ. Montclair0055 seems determined to ensure that the picaresque characters and episodes that so enthralled Wildstein are preserved for posterity. Many of the contributions are later deleted by other Wikipedia editors on the grounds of insignificance.
The night of December 4, Wildstein has dinner in New Brunswick with his friend Mike Drewniak, the governor’s spokesman, and tells him that Christie was aware of the lane closings as they were happening. The message is implicit: He won’t go down alone. The governor’s chief counsel calls Wildstein and tells him his resignation is required immediately.
Wildstein’s subpoena from the state legislative committee arrives on December 12, and he hires a criminal-defense attorney. They could fight to quash it, but instead he hands over 900 pages of emails, texts, and documents. One of those emails is the fateful one from Kelly: “Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee.” Those eight words are all it takes to ruin several lives.
You can imagine Christie, the former prosecutor, wondering: Why didn’t she just use the goddamn phone? His reputation as an incorruptible truth-teller is rendered ridiculous. Even his hero Bruce Springsteen, in a hilarious knife-twisting gesture, duets with Jimmy Fallon on Late Night in a song about the traffic jam set to the tune of “Born to Run.”*
Christie holds a two-hour press conference, in which he says he was “blindsided” and “humiliated” by the actions of his staff. “Let me just clear something up, okay, about my childhood friend David Wildstein,” he says scornfully. “We didn’t travel in the same circles in high school. You know, I was the class president and athlete. I don’t know what David was doing during that period of time.” Christie’s office later circulates a memo to supporters that describes Wildstein as untrustworthy, citing, among other things, the high-school dispute with his social-studies teacher and his odd habit of registering web addresses for the names of his enemies. In January 2015, Wildstein reaches a deal to plead guilty and testify. Baroni and Kelly are indicted four months later.
Christie decides to run for president anyway. He announces his candidacy at Livingston High School. Inside a sweltering gym bedecked with championship banners, the governor is received by a boisterous contingent of his old friends from the class of 1980. “Lots of people have asked me over the course of last week, why here?” he says. “Why here? Because everything started here for me. The confidence. The education. The friends. The family. And the love that I’ve always felt for and from this community.” Outside the gym, protesters picket the speech, waving signs that read BULLY.
On the campaign trail, he keeps getting incredulous questions about the juvenile traffic-jam prank. He drops out after a poor finish in New Hampshire and endorses Donald Trump. This puts him in the awkward company of the nominee’s son-in-law and strategic adviser, Jared Kushner. Kushner finally bests his father’s accuser, crushing Christie’s hopes of the vice-presidential nomination, but Christie still retains an important place in Trump’s small circle of loyalists. If Trump wins, you can assume there will be a place for him in the administration, perhaps as attorney general.
That prospect must make Wildstein extremely nervous. After the scandal, he moves to Florida, sells the house in Montville, and loses a precipitous amount of weight. When he arrives at court to enter his guilty plea, the reporters covering the case hardly recognize him. By the terms of his deal with prosecutors, he is expected to be the star witness against Kelly and Baroni, who, if convicted, would likely face two to three years in prison. It is rumored that their trial will bring significant further disclosures. Wildstein, the collector of secrets, is said to have walked out of the Port Authority with an enormous amount of documentary evidence, including the hard drive to his former friend Baroni’s computer.
Looming over the trial is the question of Christie’s level of involvement in his old classmate’s crazy bridge idea. Prosecutors have filed a sealed memorandum, listing people who were aware of the scheme; it is widely presumed that Christie’s name is on it. If he is called to testify, the governor will have to tell his story under oath. At a minimum, the spectacle will be embarrassing for Christie and threatening to any future chance of a cabinet post. At worst, the trial could destroy what is left of a career he’d once thought could plausibly culminate in the presidency.
Among veteran observers of New Jersey politics, there is an ongoing debate about who is most to blame for Chris Christie’s downfall. There are essentially two theories. One holds that Christie, a seemingly intelligent adult, would never be so idiotic as to authorize a retaliatory traffic jam. The other holds that Wildstein, a seemingly intelligent adult, would never be so idiotic as to go forward with his scheme without Christie’s approval. The trial is scheduled to begin on September 19. Soon we may hear the rest of the tale and, at long last, get the joke.
*This article appears in the September 19, 2016, issue of New York Magazine.
*This article has been corrected to reflect that Bruce Springsteen and Jimmy Fallon performed a song about the traffic closure on Late Night, not SNL or The Tonight Show.0999150-096c554837718f646394938551538b53.txt0000644000000000000000000003232300000000000014307 0ustar 00000000000000The College Football Playoff committee released its first rankings to great fanfare. The list is sensible, with proper credit given to teams with good wins and/or acceptable losses, and there is a pretty obvious explanation for why and where these rankings differ from, say, the AP Poll or F/+ rankings.
Ole Miss ranks three spots higher via the committee, thanks both to the win over Alabama and, in theory, a lower level of recency bias (the Rebels lost just last week) in the committee room. TCU ranks three spots higher than in the AP poll, potentially because it wasn't dragged down by preseason rankings. Notre Dame, lacking any sort of marquee win, ranks four spots lower than in the AP poll.
We'll see how things like recency and conference leads factor moving forward. I still feel it's misguided for the committee to put out weekly updates. It serves no purpose but to open up opportunities for unexplained movement and criticism. Still, this was a pretty good start. Now let's figure out what to expect moving forward.
***
Each Wednesday, I've been using the F/+ rankings and the win probabilities derived from them to peer into the future a bit. (For example, here's last week's ACC piece.) Odds change as more evidence becomes available and the rankings themselves shift, but it's a good way to look at odds, expectations and potential pratfalls. With all of the power conferences now getting updated each Wednesday at Football Study Hall, let's turn our gaze here to the national title race.
We'll start with the most obvious question. Of the teams ranked in the committee's current top 25, which ones are the most likely to finish with the best records?
Below are two tables, one showing you both the differences between the Playoff rankings and F/+ rankings and teams' current projected win totals, and one showing you each team's odds of finishing with a given regular-season record.
Rankings and win projections
Team Record CFP rank AP rank F/+ rank Projected wins Mississippi State 7-0 1 1 4 10.53 Florida State 7-0 2 2 11 10.51 Auburn 6-1 3 4 2 9.41 Ole Miss 7-1 4 7 1 10.21 Oregon 7-1 5 5 5 10.57 Alabama 7-1 6 3 3 9.92 TCU 6-1 7 10 7 10.37 Michigan State 7-1 8 8 10 10.26 Kansas State 6-1 9 11 17 8.96 Notre Dame 6-1 10 6 19 9.08 Georgia 6-1 11 9 14 9.94 Arizona 6-1 12 14 27 9.18 Baylor 6-1 13 12 20 9.58 Arizona State 6-1 14 15 18 9.82 Nebraska 7-1 15 17 13 10.42 Ohio State 6-1 16 13 8 10.18 Utah 6-1 17 18 32 7.96 Oklahoma 5-2 18 19 6 9.69 LSU 7-2 19 16 12 9.02 West Virginia 6-2 20 20 25 8.59 Clemson 6-2 21 22 9 9.58 UCLA 6-2 22 25 24 8.74 East Carolina 6-1 23 21 46 10.13 Duke 6-1 24 24 28 10.07 Louisville 6-2 25 15 8.71
Win probabilities for each ranked team
With trips to Ole Miss and Alabama on the horizon, Mississippi State, No. 4 in the current F/+ rankings, doesn't have the greatest chance in the world of finishing undefeated. But there's still about a 1-in-2 chance that the Bulldogs reach the SEC title game (if they qualify) at 11-1 or better.
Meanwhile, it appears Oregon and Nebraska have the best chances to reach their respective conference title games with just one overall loss.
If the season ended today by Jason Kirk Here's the best guess as to how the six big New Year's bowls would look. The top four in the rankings go to the Rose and Sugar semifinals, with No. 1 getting its closer site. Conference ties determine the Orange. The top non-power-conference team is guaranteed a spot. And the committee matches up the other three games according to geography and appeal. Peach No. 8 Michigan State vs. No. 23 East Carolina Fiesta No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 7 TCU Orange No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 21 Clemson Cotton No. 9 Kansas State vs. No. 10 Notre Dame Rose No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Auburn Sugar No. 1 Mississippi State vs. No. 4 Ole Miss
Let's get to some obvious questions.
FSU might finish 10-2?
One of the most interesting parts of last week's ACC projections was the slack FSU does not get moving forward.
FSU has crept back into the F/+ top 10 and is still getting slight dings for Winston missing the Clemson game and for Oklahoma State's J.W. Walsh getting injured right after the FSU game. So all of the Seminoles' win probabilities are probably slightly low because of that. [...] A lot of our assumptions, however, are premised around the helmet FSU wears. If Clemson were 7-0 with a few close wins, we wouldn't trust that the Tigers would continue to win. If Louisville or BC were in this position, we really wouldn't trust it. Because FSU won the national title last year, and because we recognize so many star-caliber names on the two-deep, we perhaps justifiably assume the 'Noles will be just fine. I know I do.
With road games remaining against two good teams, the win projections weren't incredibly kind to FSU last week. And with Miami's dominant win over Virginia Tech pushing the Canes to 16th overall in the F/+ rankings, FSU's odds aren't any better this week. I don't think you'll find too many people willing to bet on FSU losing to both Louisville and Miami in the coming weeks, but the numbers are pointing out that it's at least a possibility.
Nebraska and Duke? What?
Nebraska has crept up to 13th in the F/+ rankings. The Huskers don't have much to offer beyond Ameer Abdullah's rushing yards, but that alone has gotten them into the top 30 of Off. F/+. Meanwhile, the defense is up to 13th thanks to a lack of true weaknesses and an occasionally great pass defense.
Here's the Huskers' remaining conference slate: Purdue (64th), at Wisconsin (29th), Minnesota (42nd) and at Iowa (49th). The trip to Madison looks a lot tougher after the Badgers' total dominance of Maryland last week, but F/+ still really likes Nebraska.
It also really likes Duke, though that's more a function of schedule than quality. The Blue Devils do rank a relatively healthy 28th overall, but that's not exactly the level of a national title contender.
But here's their remaining schedule: at Pittsburgh (38th), at Syracuse (76th), Virginia Tech (30th), North Carolina (59th and rising) and Wake Forest (89th). Pitt is occasionally great and occasionally awful -- the proverbial crazy guy in the fight, capable of ripping off 300 rushing yards or seven fumbles in a single game -- which makes that game a bit of an unknown. Survive Pitt, however, and Duke will be favored in each remaining season game, perhaps by a decent margin. That would put them in position to potentially steal a Playoff bid with an upset of FSU. And while the Blue Devils have to leap a ton of teams for this shot, remember the "we'll place extra value in conference titles" committee proclamation.
(That Duke-FSU upset obviously isn't likely. Just consider yourself warned that "Duke could make the Final Four!!!" might become a story line we actually discuss in about five weeks ... as long as the crazy guy in the fight doesn't take the Devils down this weekend, anyway.)
How does the committee react going forward?
This is a huge question.
More intrigued by next week's @CFBPlayoff rankings than tonight's, because we'll get to see how rankings react to top-10 game. — Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) October 28, 2014
No.3 and No.4 play one another this weekend. No.5 is definitely better than the loser of that game. - Poll Logic. Not sure about committee. — Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) October 29, 2014
The first iteration of this top 25 was good about giving heft to good wins, avoiding giving extra weight to recent losses, et cetera. But does it simply end up reacting to results like a poll would moving forward? It's easy to look at those probabilities above and figure out how things might shake down overall -- Oregon nabbing a top-3 spot, TCU putting itself in excellent position for the top 4, and whatnot. But now we get to see how the committee reacts to specific wins and losses in real time.
Win probabilities by week
Looking at the above list, we see that the 11-1 cutoff comes roughly at No. 16 Ohio State. After that come either teams that are all but guaranteed to lose once or twice more (Utah) or teams that already have two losses. Let's look at the upcoming slate for the top 16 teams and Duke. If you're looking for where a team might trip up, here's where you should start.
Feel afraid
F/+ sees three teams with a very good chance of losing this week: No. 2 Florida State at No. 25 Louisville, No. 3 Auburn at No. 4 Ole Miss, and No. 12 Arizona at No. 22 UCLA. If any or all of these teams survive their tricky road trips, expect their win probabilities to jump rather dramatically next week.
For Auburn, which still faces trips to Georgia in Week 12 and Alabama in Week 14, a win is imperative. One could see a 10-2 SEC West team nabbing that No. 4 spot in certain circumstances, but nobody's reaching the Playoff at 9-3. An Auburn team that beats Ole Miss and goes 1-1 against UGA and Alabama will have an interesting case.
Meanwhile, at 12th, Arizona has no margin for error whatsoever. The Wildcats are taking on an incredibly volatile UCLA team, one that has proven capable of drubbing a good team on the road (ASU), then losing two straight at home. An Arizona win would give the Wildcats two lovely road wins for the résumé (they beat Oregon earlier in the year) and would clear the path for a bit of an elimination game at Arizona State in Week 14.
Feel pretty nervous
Three teams have win probabilities between 50 and 70 percent this week: No. 4 Ole Miss (hosting No. 3 Auburn), No. 7 TCU (traveling to No. 20 West Virginia), and No. 24 Duke (heading to Pittsburgh). All three have games they'd win two of three times, but that basically means if they roll a 5 or 6 on a die, they lose. Those aren't comfortable odds, and there's only about a 29 percent chance that all three win.