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Sometimes it’s best if we don’t know things . I’m sure we will know eventually
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2024-10-08
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He looks like he fell in a cauldron of vodka when he was a kid and now he's permanently wasted.
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2024-10-08
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This really needed an /s
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2024-10-08
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Standing up against him just gets you put on a balcony you accidentally fall off of.
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2024-10-08
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SHOIGU!! GERASIMOV!!
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2024-10-08
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Remember when all those articles calling this Kursk invasion a bad idea.
Yeah, not seen many more of that brain trust around lately.
Looking directly at you Forbes.
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2024-10-08
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Yeah but they'd have to drive through minefields and dug in fortified positions, not the open highway. Route by shortest time, not shortest distance.
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2024-10-08
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Should be titled Ukraine invasion of Russia rn
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2024-10-08
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That's because Ukraine borders Russia obviously and the border of Ukraine isn't that far from Moscow, 728 miles according to Google. Russia made the mistake of not shoring up their border, making it relatively easy for Ukraine to assign a few hardcode brigades to rapidly advance in to Russian territory. Ukraine still has quite a bit of border region from west of Lyptsi up to Belarus that it can start more incursions from in future if it so decides.
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2024-10-08
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uh oh
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2024-10-08
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Very original joke. I've only seen it a thousand times the last couple days.
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2024-10-08
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This is basically the reason the Soviet Union was obsessed with having buffer states between them and the west. They knew how vulnerable Moscow is.
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2024-10-08
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All free thinking peoples of the global world workers collective agree that it was quite embarrassing for Ukraine that the Ukraine armed forces could not keep up with the Chechen TikTok brigand as the brigade quickly advanced rearward in an expeditious fashion. Clearly the CTTB is faster at moving backward and therefore much superior to the AUF.
is an /s needed here?
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2024-10-08
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No, they just wanted to build an empire.
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2024-10-08
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That fuckin' article was a piece of work.
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2024-10-08
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That's a long way in any war, especially in Europe. The front was 100km from Paris in WW1. The Germans made it 25km from Moscow in WW2 before being turned back.
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2024-10-08
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Finland? Wanna step in here?
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2024-10-08
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Which is really dumb when you think about it. When they have the nuclear arsenal they have, there is no way anyone was going to try and invade them unless it was a matter of survival. And now they have pushed their neighbours to the point where it's necessary to survive.
Russia was safe before. It makes no sense.
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2024-10-08
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More panic for the panic grinder.
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2024-10-08
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There's an analyst I follow on Twitter and Telegram who has been absolutely spot on with almost everything in this war so far, he thinks this is a bad idea. An incredibly bad idea. I really disagree with him for the first time since I've been following him, I think the problem is that analysts stick too rigidly to the outcomes of similar operations in the past. His argument is that past raids by Ukraine have been costly mistakes, but I don't think you can compare this to the previous ~500-troop incursions. There's a bigger strategy at play and I think it's too early to call this. His name is Jon Champs on twitter, @militarystrategyanalysis on TG
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2024-10-08
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Because Kadyrov is balancing and playing a double game: he has to pretend to care but at the same time he can't lose people because it would weaken his position as a warlord.
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2024-10-08
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Resources are not the reason behind this invasion, and they never were. All of the natural resources combined in the Donbas and Ukrainian portions of the Black Sea account for just 1% of the natural resources Russia already has. The total value of these resources is a paltry 1.5 trillion dollars. Russia has 150 trillion dollars worth of natural resources already.
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2024-10-08
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With trucks to help Ukraine with logistics and armored vehicles pushing forward quickly, war has changed since Napoleon's time.
I agree that winter will make it hard for Ukraine to advance. But small units are going to get rolled over by Ukraine's superior weapons - as we are already seeing.
If Russia doesn't put up serious resistance, Ukraine has no need to occupy anything. They can just go on a campaign of destroying Russian factories and bases.This would degrade Russia's army and they will have to quit the battles in Ukraine.
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2024-10-08
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If it were a NATO operation, they'd be in Moscow by now.
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2024-10-08
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If the army was ordered into Ukraine they would go to Minsk.
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2024-10-08
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Bro. Russia sucks. Imperialism sucks. Using excuses to conquer neighbors suck.
All I did was provide a link with context. I’ll sleep fine.
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2024-10-08
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They don't exactly have a big army and they are not popular
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2024-10-08
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Definitely not. It is not the same land it once was.
Underdeveloped, ravaged and polluted, full of russians. Would bankrupt us.
The people who had roots in there have mostly gone to greener pastures so no yearning left anymore for it.
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2024-10-08
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Or instead of just an attempt to lock down Ukrainian troops, he wants to lock down Belarusian troops on NATO’s border so he has a good excuse when Putin comes a begging
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2024-10-08
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Wow, what a clown opinion.
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2024-10-08
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The founder ran in the GOP primary a few years back, and it is a magazine aimed at rich people. It seems fair to characterize it as right wing.
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2024-10-08
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https://www.intellinews.com/president-of-belarus-reveals-russian-invasion-plans-in-viral-video-236712/
Taking Odessa would be so easy that they would stop only after crossing Transnistria also.
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2024-10-08
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I am hearing that Ukraine holds the high ground now. No need to keep advancing, just shell the Russians as they arrive.
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2024-10-08
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The T-62 was a solid tank. The T-80 is widely based on it and it's considered their best tank (the BVM variant anyway), even better than the T-90M.
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2024-10-08
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That is basically Putin's take
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2024-10-08
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*Italian stabbing noises*
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2024-10-08
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And that old artillery has a lot less range which brings them closer to the frontlines which makes them more vulnerable to Ukrainian counter strikes. That means you lose more artillery pieces so you start to burn through what you have left even faster, not to mention losing more crews as well.
I know some say "people have said since the start of the war Russia will run out of equipment and it hasn't happened yet," well Russia is starting to run low on critical equipment. In the next year or so they will not be able to sustain the intensity of combat operations they have to this point as they will start suffering from shortages of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery. They won't ever quite run out but new production cannot replace the number of vehicles they can pull from storage, not even close.
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2024-10-08
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good catch, I remembered that wrong.
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2024-10-08
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Yes but the Ukrainian gas transport contracts runs out the end of 2024 and Zelenskyy has already said they won’t renew it
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2024-10-08
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This also may be an effort to draw Russia into attempting close air support only to get shredded by western AA and F16s. If Russia isn’t bringing those assets to bear it may be an admission that they know it will be disastrous for them.
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2024-10-08
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I hope you are joking, but I'm risking a woosh:
First of all, power plants, particularly nuclear ones, need the high voltage lines to both deliver and receive power. Most power plants, in particular nuclear ones, are not black start capable, meaning they need power from the grid to start and need continuous power for its own use like pumps during operation, so just "cutting the cables" is a bad/risky idea.
With nuclear plant, if you have recently shut down reactors, you need grid power for decay heat removal. You could provide power using the on-site generators, but this increases risk in case of generator failure, especially if you are in hot shutdown. There was a lot of excitement about this at the ZNPP for a while.
Regarding stringing lines: Luckily Russia has a 50Hz grid frequency like the rest of Europe so at least transformer sizes match, but Ukraine has synchronized with the European grid beginning of the war, so this has to be done here as well, even if the grid connect is already there.
Speaking of which, you don't just need cables, you need transformer stations on both sides, you may be able to use the one at the power station, but you need a matching one on the Ukrainian site. The grid entry point also needs enough capacity to support the (not unsubstantial) additional capacity. This is something that takes a long time to build.
It's definitely not impossible to do, but it will take a lot more than just "stringing wires".
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2024-10-08
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There is no "if", its a different countries (historically or not - it does not matter anymore anyway)
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2024-10-08
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Russia claims a lot of stuff.
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2024-10-08
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No news is definitely good news but does anyone have a succinct summary of what’s going on? I’m super ootl right now..
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2024-10-08
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I disagree, big parts of Russia, including their capital, actually belongs to Mongolia.
We have to follow Russia's own logic.
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2024-10-08
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Because having the official reaction of a country which is being invaded is quite newsworthy? Every entity with two neurons in it's head knows you take Russians statements with a mountain of salt.
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2024-10-08
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I think they would sooner bomb their own city than pull troops from Ukraine.
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2024-10-08
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Some more news from pro-Russian telegram channels:
> The official reports that the Russian Armed Forces "stopped the advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces", and that "all counterattacks were repelled,” including in the village of Malaya Loknya, are not true.
> “Lies. The situation is such that almost everything [settlements and outlying areas] from Sudzha to the village of Kromskiye Byki (Lgov District) is controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The last people who managed to evacuate say that Malaya Loknya is littered with corpses lying right on the roads. There are mines everywhere, SoF groups, and Ukrainian Armed Forces have already dug in in Malaya Loknya. According to latest reports there is a checkpoint and a machine gunner at the crossroads near the village.”
> “In Pogrebki (Sudzha District) there are about 20 people left. You can’t get there, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are everywhere. Local residents who knew how to get through the fields and forests before they took 1-2 people out on motorcycles at night to Krombyki (Kromskie Byki village, Lgov district). That's it for the evacuation. I know someone stayed in Lyubimovka, and even in Viktorovka there are 5-6 people sitting in basements, you can't get through to them by phone."
> "I saved myself on my own two feet, I walked through the forests and fields for two days. Anti-tank mines and petal mines are scattered right on the pavement and all over the place. I was hospitalized in the Lgov hospital. There are many wounded contract soldiers there - all naval infantry. They said that they held off the Ukrainian infantry in Novoivanovka for two days. Without comms, without any support, not even artillery. On the second day, heavy vehicles and tanks broke through their defenses, followed by the infantry in Bradleys. The survivors were flanked, many died. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, without delay, entered Malaya Loknya, no one stopped them there. And then to other villages. The reports being broadcast are two days late. In the Lgov Central District Hospital, evacuation to the Kursk Regional Hospital began on August 8."
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2024-10-08
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At what point do we change the live thread title to "Ukraine Invasion of Russia" (I'm not saying that is a bad thing mind you)
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2024-10-08
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Not mutually exclusive. Ukraine struggles to conscript more people and there's strong deficit in soldiers on Donetsk, Lughansk and Zaporizhia fronts, but at the same time there have been 14 brigades that were waiting for orders standing by across the empty stretches of the border. Reports shown that they lack the material support tho.
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2024-10-08
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Only when the 5000th person says it, unluckily for you, you're the 4990th.
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2024-10-08
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I'm doing my part!
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2024-10-08
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When Ukraine controls more lands inside Russia than Russia controls in Ukraine
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2024-10-08
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We call that poetic justice where I’m from
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2024-10-08
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Correction, FAB isn't "Fuel Air Bomb" , it's Фугасная Авиационная Бомба" - "High Explosive Aviation Bomb"
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2024-10-08
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People in charge aren't there because they "hope for the best and see what happens". It's completely reasonable to assume they made countless scenarios if X or Y happens or not and instructions to act accordingly
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2024-10-08
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Smoking has been banned comerade. Problem solved mister Putin.
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2024-10-08
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https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1822346670287241584
Kursk region. Enemy groups have been spotted in the direction of Belitsa, writes Russian voenkor.
Incase anyone wanted news instead of debating about the about the thread title.
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2024-10-08
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I'm not the source. And yes that's the right village. But most likely Special forces activity.
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2024-10-08
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Ukraine could try and push deeper but this poses problems. Moscow is still a long ways off and if Ukraine did make it there, they would be over-extended. A military wants to avoid being overextended, as this really puts a damper on supplies and makes a tactical retreat harder, should one become necessary.
The next problem is that Moscow is probably better defended, though with the Russian military, you never know.
I just don't think it is feasible for Ukraine to make a run to Moscow and even if they do, now it is urban warfare in one of the biggest cities in the world.
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2024-10-08
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It took Russia MONTHS to disconnect UA from that plant though. It would take a lot longer to reconnect it. And this is assuming UA is willing to both take the NPP and hold it for that long. We don't know anything at this point.
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2024-10-08
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Wondering if Ukraine finally found some use for the French AMX-10 RC. The current operation is exactly what they'd be good at.
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2024-10-08
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The Soviet Union and Nazi Germany started the war together. The Soviet Union did not do anything for the world. They were simply betrayed by their nazi friends and were forced to fight the nazies. Also, they completely plundered and raped their way through Eastern Europe and then occupied it for 50 years. Fuck the Soviet Union and fuck Russia. They have always been nothing but a cancer of this planet.
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2024-10-08
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Or just cut off the Kharkiv troops from resupply and force ~50k Russians to surrender or starve to death
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2024-10-08
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I think I have a pretty good picture of the ukrainian area of control after the latest report from russian telegram (you just need to scroll down a little). From the outskirts of Korenevo to Kromskie Byki to Martynovka to the outskirts of Belitsa. And Ukraine has full control of Sudzha and adjacent villages.
They have the high ground and some natural barriers to protect them east of Martynovka. They also can strike ru convoys in the 2 main roads in the region: the E38 and the P200/R200. This is a good progress imo and their OPSEC must be infurating for the russians. Maybe they control even more areas that we don't know yet, as the info we get from the russians is always a bit delayed.
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2024-10-08
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"In the direction of". I don't think they're anywhere close to it.
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2024-10-08
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Yah if they can they will. The next few days maybe even weeks will be very interesting and dynamic with lots of twists and possibilities.
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2024-10-08
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Are they threatening the supply routes for Russia’s Kharkiv offensive yet?
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2024-10-08
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I don’t understand this whole “master plan” shit either. I also think your response is more complicated than it needs to be. It all boils down to:
- Ukraine was unable to break through Russias dug in defenses
- Ukraine is testing if they are able to break through Russias softer defenses.
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2024-10-08
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I'd kind of like to see what was the context inwhich they presented this.
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2024-10-08
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'wow, pretty cool'
~ xi
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2024-10-08
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I'm not sure - staying in Ukraine would be pretty risky for somebody like Zelenskyy. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if we found out that he was being hosted by various neighbouring allies that he cycled through to avoid being caught/assassinated. My guess is he's rarely actually in Ukraine.
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2024-10-08
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Lmao. Sounds about right tbh. Theres a reason the saying “Made in China shit” exists
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2024-10-08
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No offense, but as Ukrainian, I don't want to border Palestine.
Russia is stupid, but at least predictable. Palestine, is whole different can of worms.
Having radical islamist on our border that will swiss cheese our border with smuggling tunnels won't end well, it'll open a huge market for nork drugs that will flood the europe. That'll be like uber mexican cartels on steroids lmao.
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2024-10-08
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Russia getting liberated more everyday. work on encircling them from the rear build a line then just smush what's in the middle.
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2024-10-08
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China is quite capable of making good hardware... for themselves.
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2024-10-08
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I think that's just standard Made in China shit
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2024-10-08
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No Hamas allowed
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2024-10-08
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To St Petersburg, to the very north, then all the way along the coast to Vladivostok and then all the way back along Russia's southern borders, to encircle it.
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2024-10-08
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Haishenwai yearns to be returned to the Middle Kingdom
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2024-10-08
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But I thought the advance had been “thwarted” 🤔
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2024-10-08
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Could be zombies.
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2024-10-08
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Russia is advancing backwards
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2024-10-08
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Really? The DJI Mavic drones heavily used by both sides are made in.... oh yeah, China!
More likely it's Russia buying the cheapest parts they can.
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2024-10-08
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I doubt they're going to do anything with the city, it doesn't have any strategic value and would be a massive resource sink. Everything of any importance is south of it (other than the NPP), closer to where they crossed the border.
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2024-10-08
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Russian activity in Ukraine is still very much ongoing. They're redirected several units toward Kursk, but battles will continue in Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, and the rest of the frontline.
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2024-10-08
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Russia's problem is that it can block an advance by defending a spot such as Kursk. But there are lots of other directions for the AFU to go.
Russia will need to establish a defensive line around the entire AFU perimeter to contain them.
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2024-10-08
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New ISW just dropped
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2024-11-08
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That was not a tactical nuke. When a nuke goes off there is ALWAYS A LIGHT. At worst it was an explosives with the nuke itself but they are designed not to explode form anything other then the trigger themselves and are designed to need a certain sequence to go off. More likely something like a fuel or bomb depot. It was certainly large though granted.
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2024-11-08
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Russia has the SU-57. I wouldn't say its uncontested but for sure a more fair match. Russia I think only has less than 20 of them. Also they have not used them in the fight against Ukraine yet, but maybe they will.
edit: Side note its russia, the SU-57s are prolly under maintained and barely functional.
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2024-11-08
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[Link](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-10-2024)
I laughed at this:
>A Russian source claimed on August 10 that Ukrainian forces retreated from Plekhovo, while a Russian source claimed on August 10 that Ukrainian forces seized Plekhovo
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2024-11-08
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Any radiological release would be immediately detectable.
The US, Ukraine, EU, and Russia would know within literal seconds.
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2024-11-08
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ISW map update
[Yesterday ](https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%209%2C%202024.png); [Today](https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2010%2C%202024.png)
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2024-11-08
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If you hit a nuke with an explosion it's not going to work anymore.
A nuclear bomb has a very specific set of explosions it has to do to reach criticality. Imagine a computer trying to show you an image. The end result is a simple enough concept but the process to get there is complicated and could easily fail. Now imagine you drop a hand grenade on said computer. It ain't making pretty pictures anymore.
TLDR: nukes are expensive, complicated, fickle, and most importantly they are designed to only go off when specifically told too and not under any other circumstances. The U.S has slung many of those fuckers into the oceans and rural Kentucky from planes crashing and never had the bombs even get close to going off.
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2024-11-08
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They only detonate from explosions.
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2024-11-08
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Maybe there were last week but for sure not today.
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2024-11-08
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They can but it's unlikely. For a fun explanation watch The Fat Electrician episode on Operation Plumbob
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2024-11-08
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They are going to be protective of them and focused on providing a threat to Russian aviation I think. It will likely be some time before we are likely to see CAS on the frontline.
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2024-11-08
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The other thing to think about is that the US and her allies are constantly watching where Russia stores its nukes and Ukraine would very much be informed if they were at risk of hitting them.
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2024-11-08
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Maybe they can beat Russia to the punch before they start digging into their next round of progressively crappier stored junk...
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2024-11-08
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