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ancient vocal tract simulation in work following up the work of laitman , lieberman et al on reconstruction of what vocal tracts of hominids and early humans must have been like , i believe some mechanical simulators of the output of these were made . i would be interested in details of this , but more in whether anyone has tried to do a computer simulation of the phonetic range of vocal tracts that differ from those of modern humans e . g . in having a higher larynx . on a related question , i saw a letter to scientific american a year or so ago saying some of the origins of language work was based on a fallacy : that mammals other than humans can breathe and swallow at the same time . > from my reading this does seem to underly some of the major work , so i 'd like to have some confirmation that it is wrong or someone to point me to where the debate is going on , if there is a debate . from my point of view ( ignorance of anatomy / physiology and biological anthropology ) it would seem to be a question that could be fairly easily resolved empirically . patrick mcconvell , anthropology , northrn territory university , po box 40146 , nt 0811 , australia | 0 |
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ena sales on hpl just to update you on this project ' s status : based on a new report that scott mills ran for me from sitara , i have come up with the following counterparties as the ones to which ena is selling gas off of hpl ' s pipe . altrade transaction , l . l . c . gulf gas utilities company brazoria , city of panther pipeline , inc . central illinois light company praxair , inc . central power and light company reliant energy - entex ces - equistar chemicals , lp reliant energy - hl & p corpus christi gas marketing , lp southern union company d & h gas company , inc . texas utilities fuel company duke energy field services , inc . txu gas distribution entex gas marketing company union carbide corporation equistar chemicals , lp unit gas transmission company inc . since i ' m not sure exactly what gets entered into sitara , pat clynes suggested that i check with daren farmer to make sure that i ' m not missing something ( which i did below ) . while i am waiting for a response from him and / or mary smith , i will begin gathering the contractual volumes under the above contracts . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - forwarded by cheryl dudley / hou / ect on 05 / 10 / 2000 07 : 56 am - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cheryl d king 05 / 08 / 2000 04 : 11 pm sent by : cheryl dudley to : daren j farmer / hou / ect @ ect , mary m smith / hou / ect @ ect cc : subject : ena sales on hpl i am working on a project for brenda herod & was wondering if one of you could tell me if i ' m on the right track & if this will get everything for which she is looking . she is trying to draft a long - term transport / storage agreement between ena & hplc which will allow ena to move the gas to their markets . in order to accomplish this , she needs to know all of the sales to customers that ena is doing off of hpl ' s pipe . i had scott mills run a report from sitara showing all ena buy / sell activity on hpl since 7 / 99 . if i eliminate the buys & the desk - to - desk deals , will this give me everything that i need ? are there buy / sell deals done with ena on hpl ' s pipe that wouldn ' t show up in sitara ? someone mentioned something about deals where hpl transports the gas on it ' s own behalf then ena sells it to a customer at that same spot - - ? ? ? ? ? do deals like that happen ? would they show up in sitara ? is there anything else that i ' m missing ? i ' m not real familiar with how some of these deals happen nowadays so am very receptive to any ideas / suggestions / help that you can offer ! ! ! thanks in advance . | 0 |
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sexism and language re lydie e . meunier 's latest , i did not mean to say that i consider oppression of any kind to be of no importance , but merely that in studying linguistic usages it is of no importance ( or at least less importance , ok ? ) what the real situation re oppression and the like is than what people perceive it to be . if ( as some seem to believe ) there is no oppression of women by men , i meant to say , that would not be what we would want to know in order to explain sexist language , so long as people believe that men are better , stronger , or whatever , so long as people believe that men are and deserve to be dominant and / or more prominent in public life , etc . because even if these things were not true ( although i think by large they obviously are ) , so long as people believe they are ( and certainly all cultures i am familiar with do ) , then that would suffice to explain sexist language . in the same way , we as linguists need not discuss the existence of god in order to be able to say that certain linguistic usages seem to be derived from such a belief . so , yes , i do believe women have been and continue to be oppressed in various ways , i am astounded that there are people who would deny it , but i also would say that in order to explain sexist language , that is not what we need to discuss . alexis manaster ramer | 0 |
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A little tidbit for those who still believe in science by opinion poll...Cheers,
RAH
http://www.techcentralstation.com/1051/printer.jsp?CID=1051-072302BJust Ask the Experts
By Sallie Baliunas and Willie Soon 07/23/2002
In 2001 the National Science Foundation surveyed 1,500 people nationwide
and found that 77% believed that "increased carbon dioxide and other gases
released into the atmosphere will, if unchecked, lead to global warming
..." Yet half of those polled believed that humans and dinosaurs co-existed
on Earth, despite the scientific fact that the dinosaurs went extinct tens
of millions of years before the earliest hominids appeared. Worse, only 22%
of the respondents understood what a molecule - for example, carbon dioxide
- is.As in the case of the belief by many that dinosaurs and early humans
co-existed, public opinion does not change the actual facts about the
material world. Such a poll measures nothing more than the degree of public
ignorance about scientific matters.Most people get news stories about science and technology developments from
television. And after more than a decade of being fed what-if stories about
global warming from human activities, no wonder most people "believe" that
global warming "will" occur. However, on the anxiety scale, only 33% "worry
a great deal" about global warming, a worry that ranks at 12 out of 13
environmental concerns. The top environmental fear, shared by 64% of those
polled, was polluted drinking water.So What Do We Know?Concerning the latest understanding on human-made global warming, here are
three points we know from the science: 1. The surface record of temperature from thermometers show widespread
warming in the 20th century compared to the 19th. There was one period of
warming early in the 20th century, the second after the 1970s. Ecosystems
have responded to this widespread warmth, not seen since ca. 800 - 1200 C.E. But the cause of global surface warming cannot be associated with
human activity without additional information. Some media reports point to
ecosystem responses of 20th century warmth (e.g., mountain glacier retreat)
and unjustifiably claim the responses owe to man-made causes. But mountain
glaciers receded during the past period of warmth around 1,000 years ago,
and advanced during the unusual cold of the Little Ice Age (ca. 1300 - 1900
C.E.). Both those climate shifts occurred naturally, before the increased
concentration of human-made greenhouse gases in the air.
# All computer simulations of climate say that in order to conclude
that the surface global warming trend is human caused, the surface warmth
must be accompanied by an equal or larger warming trend in the air from one
to five miles in height. Measurements made by satellites and verified from
weather balloons show no meaningful human-made warming trend over the last
two or even four decades. Thus, the recent warming trend in the surface
temperature record cannot be caused by the increase of human-made
greenhouse gases in the air.
# The computer simulations are not reliable as tools for explaining
past climate or making projections for future trends.Future Shock: The ScenariosWhen it comes to future scenarios, consider what the experts actually say
about potential climate change. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change writes in its Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
(2000), "Scenarios are images of the future or alternative futures. They
are neither predictions nor forecasts." Further, "The possibility that any
single emissions path will occur as described in the scenario is highly
uncertain," and finally, "No judgement is offered in this Report as to the
preference for any of the scenarios and they are not assigned probabilities
of occurrence, neither must they be interpreted as policy recommendations."Forecasting future societal conditions and energy use often amount to
little more than unconvincing guesses. Jesse Ausebel at Rockefeller
University in April 2002 critiqued the U.N. IPCC's " ... 40 energy
scenarios, with decarbonization, or carbonization, sloping every which way
and no probabilities attached. ... It is a confession that collectively
they know nothing, that no science underlies their craft, and that politics
strongly bias their projections."Nonetheless, such a guess about the world's energy future forms the first
step in making a 100-year prediction of global warming. That first
uncertain forecast - future energy use - used as input in the climate
simulation surely compounds the uncertainty in the next step, the climate
forecast.Inability to predict the future should not be surprising. The climate
simulations upon which predictions are based yield unreliable results
because, as outlined above, the results are incompatible with measurements
of how the climate has changed in the last few decades.Complete SpeculationOn May 24, 1994, Richard Lindzen, the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of
Meteorology at MIT, testified to the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural
Resources, "The claims about catastrophic consequences of significant
global warming, should it occur at all, are almost completely speculative.
Not only are they without any theoretical foundations, but they frequently
involved assuming the opposite of what appears to happen."Despite years of solid work by climate specialists, the output of computer
simulations remains undependable, owing to the extraordinary complexity of
the natural world. Thus, on May 1, 2001 Lindzen testified to the Senate
Commerce Committee about the long-standing inability of computer
simulations to deliver results that resemble reality, even in the cases
where good measurements are available:"For example, there is widespread agreement [among climate scientists] ...
that large computer climate models are unable to even simulate major
features of past climate such as the 100 thousand year cycles of ice ages
that have dominated climate for the past 700 thousand years, and the very
warm climates of the Miocene [23 to 5 million years ago], Eocene [57 to 35
million years ago], and Cretaceous [146 to 65 million years ago]. Neither
do they do well at accounting for shorter period and less dramatic
phenomena like El Ninos, quasi-biennial oscillations, or intraseasonal
oscillations - all of which are well documented in the data, and important
contributors to natural variability."
Lindzen explained the failure of computer simulations simply in May 2000:"The point I am making is that it is a fallacious assumption that the
models have everything in them, and will display it, and somehow the rest
is just technical uncertainty. There are things they literally don't have."
This punctuates the popular notion that averaging output from computer
results will somehow, miraculously, give a scientifically appropriate
result.Think LocallyNow, on top of the unreliable forecasts of global warming -- which rest on
"highly uncertain" forecasts of future economic and social conditions and
un-validated climate simulations -- come the forecasts of local impacts, in
order to make the case for relevancy to people. Increased storminess is one
prediction of the outcome of human-made global warming found in the popular
media, which would be where most people learn about the issue.The idea that storminess increases with human-made global warming defies
expert opinion. David Legates, an expert hydrology researcher, testified in
the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works on March 13, 2002:"Ascertaining anthropogenic changes to these extreme weather events is
nearly impossible. Climate models cannot even begin to simulate storm-scale
systems, let alone model the full range of year-to-year variability...
Clearly, claims that anthropogenic global warming will lead to more
occurrences of droughts, floods, and storms are wildly exaggerated."
The U.N. IPCC Third Assessment Report concurs, "[T]here is currently
insufficient information to assess recent trends, and climate models
currently lack the spatial detail required to make confident projections.
For example, very small-scale phenomena, such as thunderstorms, tornadoes,
hail and lightning, are not simulated in climate models (Summary for
Policymakers, p. 15)."A group of extremely relevant experts, the American Association of State
Climatologists, recently summarized the state of climate simulations:"Climate prediction is complex with many uncertainties ... For time scales
of a decade or more, understanding the empirical accuracy of such
predictions - called "verification" - is simply impossible, since we have
to wait a decade or longer to assess the accuracy of the forecasts. ...
climate predictions have not demonstrated skill in projecting future
variability and changes in such important climate conditions as growing
season, drought, flood-producing rainfall, heat waves, tropical cyclones
and winter storms. These are the type of events that have a more
significant impact on society than annual average global temperature
trends."
On the facts of human-made global warming, should one believe television or
the experts?--
-----------------
R. A. Hettinga
The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation
44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA
"... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity,
[predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to
experience." -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'
http://xent.com/mailman/listinfo/fork
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