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Sherlock Holmes sat for some time in silence, with his head sunk |
forward and his eyes bent upon the red glow of the fire. Then he lit |
his pipe, and leaning back in his chair he watched the blue smoke-rings |
as they chased each other up to the ceiling. |
“I think, Watson, he remarked at last, “that of all our cases we have |
had none more fantastic than this. |
“Save, perhaps, the Sign of Four. |
“Well, yes. Save, perhaps, that. And yet this John Openshaw seems to me |
to be walking amid even greater perils than did the Sholtos. |
“But have you, I asked, “formed any definite conception as to what |
these perils are? |
“There can be no question as to their nature, he answered. |
“Then what are they? Who is this K. K. K., and why does he pursue this |
unhappy family? |
Sherlock Holmes closed his eyes and placed his elbows upon the arms of |
his chair, with his finger-tips together. “The ideal reasoner, he |
remarked, “would, when he had once been shown a single fact in all its |
bearings, deduce from it not only all the chain of events which led up |
to it but also all the results which would follow from it. As Cuvier |
could correctly describe a whole animal by the contemplation of a |
single bone, so the observer who has thoroughly understood one link in |
a series of incidents should be able to accurately state all the other |
ones, both before and after. We have not yet grasped the results which |
the reason alone can attain to. Problems may be solved in the study |
which have baffled all those who have sought a solution by the aid of |
their senses. To carry the art, however, to its highest pitch, it is |
necessary that the reasoner should be able to utilise all the facts |
which have come to his knowledge; and this in itself implies, as you |
will readily see, a possession of all knowledge, which, even in these |
days of free education and encyclopædias, is a somewhat rare |
accomplishment. It is not so impossible, however, that a man should |
possess all knowledge which is likely to be useful to him in his work, |
and this I have endeavoured in my case to do. If I remember rightly, |
you on one occasion, in the early days of our friendship, defined my |
limits in a very precise fashion. |
“Yes, I answered, laughing. “It was a singular document. Philosophy, |
astronomy, and politics were marked at zero, I remember. Botany |
variable, geology profound as regards the mud-stains from any region |
within fifty miles of town, chemistry eccentric, anatomy unsystematic, |
sensational literature and crime records unique, violin-player, boxer, |
swordsman, lawyer, and self-poisoner by cocaine and tobacco. Those, I |
think, were the main points of my analysis. |
Holmes grinned at the last item. “Well, he said, “I say now, as I said |
then, that a man should keep his little brain-attic stocked with all |
the furniture that he is likely to use, and the rest he can put away in |
the lumber-room of his library, where he can get it if he wants it. |
Now, for such a case as the one which has been submitted to us |
to-night, we need certainly to muster all our resources. Kindly hand me |
down the letter K of the American Encyclopædia which stands upon the |
shelf beside you. Thank you. Now let us consider the situation and see |
what may be deduced from it. In the first place, we may start with a |
strong presumption that Colonel Openshaw had some very strong reason |
for leaving America. Men at his time of life do not change all their |
habits and exchange willingly the charming climate of Florida for the |
lonely life of an English provincial town. His extreme love of solitude |
in England suggests the idea that he was in fear of someone or |
something, so we may assume as a working hypothesis that it was fear of |
someone or something which drove him from America. As to what it was he |
feared, we can only deduce that by considering the formidable letters |
which were received by himself and his successors. Did you remark the |
postmarks of those letters? |
“The first was from Pondicherry, the second from Dundee, and the third |
from London. |
“From East London. What do you deduce from that? |
“They are all seaports. That the writer was on board of a ship. |
“Excellent. We have already a clue. There can be no doubt that the |
probability—the strong probability—is that the writer was on board of a |
ship. And now let us consider another point. In the case of |
Pondicherry, seven weeks elapsed between the threat and its fulfilment, |
in Dundee it was only some three or four days. Does that suggest |
anything? |
“A greater distance to travel. |
“But the letter had also a greater distance to come. |
“Then I do not see the point. |
“There is at least a presumption that the vessel in which the man or |
men are is a sailing-ship. It looks as if they always send their |
singular warning or token before them when starting upon their mission. |
You see how quickly the deed followed the sign when it came from |
Dundee. If they had come from Pondicherry in a steamer they would have |
arrived almost as soon as their letter. But, as a matter of fact, seven |
weeks elapsed. I think that those seven weeks represented the |
difference between the mail-boat which brought the letter and the |
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