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August 31, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050831073648.htm | NASA Assesses Hurricane Katrina Damage | NASA is marshaling agency resources to assist Gulf Coast-areafacilities that suffered damage from Hurricane Katrina. The agency ispreparing to provide help for NASA employees and contractors whosehomes were damaged or destroyed. | Monday's storm hit NASA's Stennis Space Center in Mississippi andMichoud Assembly Facility in New Orleans, which is operated by LockheedMartin. Both facilities are closed during recovery efforts. During thestorm, hundreds of people including employees, family members andothers took shelter at Stennis. A small contingency of NASA employeesand contractors rode out the storm at Michoud. There are no reports ofany injuries at NASA facilities."My heart goes out to all the people affected by this hurricane,"said NASA Administrator Michael Griffin. "I will be visiting Stennisand the Michoud Assembly Facility soon to talk with our people."NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Ala., sustainedminor damage and is providing support to Stennis and Michoud. Twohelicopter flights from Marshall were delivering communicationequipment and other supplies to the facilities today. Initial damageassessments indicate some buildings at Stennis sustained water and roofdamage, but the exact extent has not been determined.The Federal Emergency Management Agency is using the center as astaging area for local recovery efforts. The center's Space Shuttlemain engine test stands do not appear to be damaged.At Michoud, which makes the Space Shuttle's external fuel tanks,several buildings suffered window and roof damage. It appears thatspace flight hardware was not damaged, but a preliminary assessment hasnot been completed. The facility has no electrical power andcommunication is limited. Debris on roadways is restrictingtransportation around the facility.NASA will provide new information as it becomes available. For updates, visit: | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
August 29, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050829081636.htm | Hurricanes Growing More Fierce Over Past 30 Years | Hurricanes have grown significantly more powerful and destructiveover the past three decades, according to atmospheric scientist KerryEmanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. | In his new analysis of tropical hurricane records, which he reportsonline today in the journal Nature, Emanuel finds that both theduration of the storms and their maximum wind speeds have increased byabout 50 per cent since the mid-1970s. Moreover, this marked increasein the energy release has occurred in both the north Atlantic and thenorth Pacific Oceans.Unlike previous studies, which have focused on whether hurricanesare becoming more frequent, Emanuel's study is one of the first to askwhether they are becoming more fierce."It's an innovative application of a theoretical concept, and hasproduced a new analysis of hurricanes' strength and destructivepotential," says Jay Fein, director of the National Science Foundation(NSF)'s climate dynamics program, which funded the research. And thatanalysis, in turn, "has resulted in an important measure of thepotential impact of hurricanes on social, economic and ecologicalsystems,"Indeed, as Emanuel himself says, "the near doubling of hurricane'spower over the period of record should be a matter of some concern, asit's a measure of the [future] destructive potential of these storms."Also of concern, he says, is that the increases in storm intensityare mirrored by increases in the average temperatures at the surface ofthe tropical oceans, suggesting that this warming is responsible forthe hurricanes' greater power. Since hurricanes depend on warm water toform and build, Emanuel warns that global climate change might increasethe effect of hurricanes still further in coming years.In addition, he says, recent research suggests that global tropicalhurricane activity may play a role in driving the oceans' circulation,which in turn has important "feedbacks" to regional and global climate.Fluctuations in tropical hurricane activity "are of obviousimportance to society," he adds, "especially as populations of affectedareas increase. Hurricanes account for a significant fraction ofdamage, injury and loss of life from natural hazards, and are thecostliest natural catastrophes in the United States. As the humanpopulation in coastal regions gets denser, the damage and casualtiesproduced by more intense storms could increase considerably in thefuture." | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
August 29, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050829081300.htm | Hurricane Winds Carried Ocean Salt And Plankton Far Inland | Researchers found surprising evidence of sea salt and frozenplankton in high, cold, cirrus clouds, the remnants of Hurricane Nora,over the U.S. plains states. Although the 1997 hurricane was a strongeastern Pacific storm, her high ice-crystal clouds extended many milesinland, carrying ocean phenomena deep into the U.S. heartland. | Kenneth Sassen of the University of Utah, Salt Lake City, andUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks; W. Patrick Arnott of the DesertResearch Institute (DRI) in Reno, Nev.; and David O. Starr of NASA'sGoddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., co-authored a paper aboutHurricane Nora's far-reaching effects. The paper was published in theApril 1, 2003, issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journalof Atmospheric Sciences.Scientists were surprised to find what appeared to be frozenplankton in some cirrus crystals collected by research aircraft overOklahoma, far from the Pacific Ocean. This was the first time examplesof microscopic marine life, like plankton, were seen as "nuclei" of icecrystals in the cirrus clouds of a hurricane.Nora formed off the Panama coast, strengthened as it traveled up theBaja Peninsula, and the hurricane crossed into California in September1997. Over the western U.S., Nora deposited a stream of high cirrus,ice crystal, clouds that created spectacular optical effects, such asarcs and halos, above a broad region including Utah and Oklahoma. Thatstream of cirrus clouds enabled researchers to analyze growth of icecrystals from different nuclei.Different nuclei, like sulfate particles, sea salt and desert dust,affect ice-crystal growth and shape. Torn from the sea surface bystrong hurricane winds, sea salt and other particles from evaporatedsea spray are carried to the cold upper troposphere in storm updrafts,where the drops freeze and become ice crystals. Plankton, a microscopicorganism, is also likely present in the sea spray and is similarlylofted to high levels."Understanding how ice crystals grow and what determines theirshapes is important in understanding how they interact with sunlightand infrared energy," Starr noted. "These interactions are importantprocesses in the global climate system. They are also critical tosensing cloud properties from space, where NASA uses measurements ofthe reflected solar radiation to infer cloud physical properties, suchas ice-crystal size," he said.Data were gathered using ground-based remote sensors at the Facilityfor Atmospheric Remote Sensing in Salt Lake City and at the Clouds andRadiation Testbed in northern Oklahoma. A research aircraft collectedparticle samples over Oklahoma. Observations from the GeostationaryOperational Environmental Satellite 9 (West), launched by NASA andoperated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, werealso used. DRI analyzed the ice crystals collected from Nora.Scientists were using data generated through the U.S. Department ofEnergy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. The ARMProgram's purpose is obtaining field measurements and developingcomputer models of the atmosphere. Researchers hope to betterunderstand the processes that control the transfer of solar and thermalinfrared energy in the atmosphere, especially in clouds, and at theEarth's surface.The ARM energy measurements also double-check data from the ModerateImaging Spectroradiometer instrument aboard NASA's Terra and Aquasatellites. By ensuring the satellites are recording the same energyreflected and absorbed by clouds from Hurricane Nora as those providedby the ground data in this study, scientists hope to take fewer groundmeasurements in the future, and enable the satellites to provide thedata.The DOE ARM program, National Science Foundation, and NASA's EarthScience Enterprise funded this research. The Earth Science Enterpriseis dedicated to understanding the Earth as an integrated system andapplying Earth System Science to improve prediction of climate, weatherand natural hazards, such as hurricanes, using the unique vantage pointof space. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
August 11, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050811090302.htm | Rainbands Offer Better Forecasts Of Hurricane Intensity | Scientists will soon begin one of the largest research projects everundertaken to better understand dramatic, rapid changes in hurricaneintensity. These changes have baffled forecasters for decades. | Atmospheric scientists from the University of Miami RosenstielSchool of Marine & Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), the University ofWashington and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) inBoulder, Colo., will participate in the new project, called theHurricane Rainband and Intensity Change Experiment, or RAINEX.RAINEX will study how the outer rain bands and inner eye of a hurricane interact to influence a storm's intensity."While great progress has been made in forecasting hurricane tracks,we need to improve forecasting of hurricane intensity," said SteveNelson, director of the National Science Foundation's (NSF) physicaland dynamic meteorology program, which funds RAINEX. "Many factorsaffect the intensity of hurricanes," Nelson said. RAINEX scientistswill investigate one of those factors: the interactions betweenhurricane rainbands and the eyewall. "From RAINEX, we will betterunderstand the impact of rainbands on a hurricane's maximum winds," hesaid.While researchers have studied the eye and outer rainbands ofhurricanes extensively, "few, if any, experiments have ever examinedthese two components together and how their interaction might affect astorm's strength," said Shuyi Chen, a meteorologist and physicaloceanographer at RSMAS and a RAINEX principal investigator. "The outerbands of a hurricane often have strong winds and lots of rain, and thatcan actually affect the overall intensity of a hurricane," she said.RAINEX will study this interaction using data recorded fromhurricane research flights. Starting on Aug. 15 and continuing throughthe remainder of this year's Atlantic hurricane season, two NOAA P3aircraft, along with a U.S. Navy P3 aircraft, all equipped with Dopplerradar, will fly simultaneously into hurricanes well before theythreaten landfall.The University of Washington and NCAR, will conduct research usingairborne Doppler radar analysis. RSMAS will construct astate-of-the-art hurricane model using the data collected from theresearch flights."These flights can be turbulent, especially when we're penetrating ahurricane's rainbands," said NCAR scientist Wen-Chau Lee. "I thinkthat's the wild card, the challenge of the experiment: to captureinternal rainband structure and its interactions with the eye wall inthose conditions.""We hope to find an explanation for why a hurricane changes inintensity, from the relationship between the inner and outer parts ofthe storm," said Robert Houze, an atmospheric scientist at theUniversity of Washington and a RAINEX co-principal investigator. "Thesestorms can jump up in intensity, or drop a full category in a day, abig challenge."Flying in the hurricane's outer bands and into the eye wall,scientists aboard the aircraft will use sophisticated Doppler radar andGPS dropsondes to record wind speed and direction, temperature,humidity, atmospheric pressure and other critical data.Much of what scientists currently know about the interaction betweenthe outer rainbands and the eye wall of a hurricane comes from thestate-of-the-art numerical models developed for hurricane research andprediction, which can provide very detailed information but may not becompletely accurate.Researchers need solid data to validate these models, they say. "Weneed to know whether or not our models are accurate, and the data wecollect from RAINEX will give us the information we need," Chen said.Once the data are collected, the researchers will all analyze andshare this information with hurricane operational centers and nationalenvironmental prediction centers throughout the country, and the world. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
August 11, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050810134642.htm | Are Hurricanes Increasing? Ask A Georgia Pine Tree | Centuries of hurricane records have been discovered in the rings ofsoutheastern US pine trees. This arboreal archive may contain criticalinformation about how the Atlantic hurricane factory responds over thelong term to natural and human-induced climate changes, say researchersat the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. | In a "proof of concept" study of the oxygen isotopes found in thecellulose of late-season growth in annual growth rings from pine treesnear Valdosta, Georgia, a team led by Claudia Mora found they couldidentify all known hurricanes that hit the area over the past fiftyyears. But that's just the beginning, says Mora, who is scheduled topresent some of her team's findings on Thursday, 11 August, at EarthSystem Processes 2, a meeting co-convened by the Geological Society ofAmerica and Geological Association of Canada this week in Calgary,Alberta, Canada. "We've taken it back 100 years and didn't miss astorm," said Mora. Since a century is a very short time when it comes to climatechange, she and her team applied their new technique to old trees fromother parts of the Southeastern US and found a tropical cyclone recordspanning 227 years. They've even found additional climate informationgoing back as far as 1450 AD. "What we're trying to do is understand frequency of hurricanesand how variable their occurrence is over the long-term," said Mora."We're trying to come up with a reliable way to establish this." Mora's group divided each individual annual tree ring in thetrees into early-year and late-year growth. That way they could isolatethe late-year hurricane season. Then they searched all the woodytissues for any sudden drops in a particular oxygen isotope: oxygen-18.That is the hurricane signal, Mora said. What makes drops in oxygen-18 so telling is that it matches up with alittle known talent of all hurricanes: they are very good at depletingthe air of oxygen-18, Mora says. Consequently, there are unusually lowconcentrations of oxygen-18 in the water that rains out of hurricanes.So when shallow roots of Southeastern trees like the longleaf pine andslash pine suck up that low-O-18 hurricane rain water, the same unusualisotopic signal is preserved in the woody tree cells that start growingas soon as the sun breaks through the storm clouds.The trees pick up the storm water in the dozen or so daysimmediately after the storm, according to what other researchers havelearned about how pines exploit rainwater, says Mora. Of course, not every hurricane drops rain on Valdosta,Georgia, says Mora. So to get a fuller picture of hurricane frequenciesher team has already begun looking at and searching for more locationsand old living trees or well-preserved dead trees in the SoutheasternUS , she said. The matter of hurricane frequency has taken on greaterimportance recently as the Eastern US is seeing more hurricanes andclimate researchers have begun asserting that there's reason to believeglobal warming - at least partially human-influenced - may be causingthe increase. The best way to differentiate natural from anthropogenicincreases in hurricane occurrence is to have a long history ofhurricanes and other tropical cyclones to compare with, Mora explains. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
August 5, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050805101628.htm | NRL Measures Record Wave During Hurricane Ivan | Washington, DC (08/04/05) -- Scientists at the Naval ResearchLaboratory - Stennis Space Center (NRL-SSC) measured a record-sizeocean wave when the eye of Hurricane Ivan passed over NRL mooringsdeployed last May in the Gulf of Mexico. | The possibility of a super wave is often suggested by anecdotalevidence such as damage caused by Hurricane Ivan in September of 2004to an offshore rig in the Gulf of Mexico that was nearly 80 feet abovethe ocean surface. Hence, some of the destruction done by Ivan has beenattributed to a rogue wave.According to industry and national weather sources, the damage doneby waves during Ivan has been on the extreme high end for a category 4hurricane. Ivan has been the most expensive hurricane ever for the oiland gas industry in the Gulf. The Minerals Management Service (MMS)reported that Ivan amazingly forced evacuation of 75% of the mannedplatforms in the Gulf (574 platforms) and 59% of the drilling rigs (69rigs), set adrift 5 rigs and sunk 7 rigs entirely. However, the damageby Hurricane Ivan in the oil fields in the Gulf cannot be measured byhow many platforms or rigs were destroyed. The most costly damage isbelieved to have been made to the underwater pipelines. Aside fromobvious leaks, some pipelines were reported to have moved 3000 ft whileothers were buried under 30 feet of mud and cannot be found. The mostextensive damage to the pipelines is attributed to undersea mudslides(equivalent to a snow avalanche) and to extreme waves. The completefindings of this study are published in the August 5, 2005 issue ofScience. During NRL's Slope to Shelf Energetics and Exchange Dynamics (SEED)field experiment, six current profiler moorings that also containedwave/tide gauges (Sea-Bird Electronics SBE 26) were deployed on thecontinental shelf at water depths ranging between 60 and 90 meters justwest of the DeSoto Canyon, about 100 miles south of Mobile Bay,Alabama. An additional eight deep moorings were deployed down the shelfslope but did not contain wave/tide gauges. Fortuitously, between 8:00pm CDST and midnight on September 15, the eye of Ivan passed throughthe center of the array, and almost directly over moorings 2, 5, 8, and11. Historically, instruments in the ocean do not even survive nearmisses of such powerful storms, much less direct hits. Fortunately, allof the SEED moorings survived this powerful storm, and provided thebest ocean measurements of currents and waves ever obtained directlyunder a major hurricane. During the approach of Ivan, a moored buoy (ID 42040),deployed by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) near the west side ofthe SEED array, registered a significant wave height of 16.0 meters (53ft). Unfortunately, the NDBC buoy broke loose and was set adrift onSeptember 15 at 5:00 pm CDST, just before the arrival of the main forceof the hurricane. According to a spokesman at NDBC, this wave heightappears to be the largest ever reported by NDBC from a hurricane andcomes within a few tenths of a meter of NDBC's all-time record reportedin the North Pacific.Note that the wave heights reported by the NDBC buoys are derivedfrom wave spectra. Buoy measurements do not report time series ofsurface wave elevations, and hence, maximum individual wave heights canonly be statistically postulated from spectrum-derived significant waveheights. The SEED wave/tide gauges, however, provided direct timeseries measurements of surface wave elevations. The maximum individualcrest-to-trough wave heights can be reliably obtained. At mooring 3,located under the most intense winds, the maximum measured wave heightwas 27.7 meters (91 feet) which was part of a group of large waves withperiods of approximately 10 seconds where several waves reached heightsof about 20 meters (66 feet).These waves recorded by the NRL SEED gauges are by far the largestwaves ever directly measured. Even larger waves could have been missedentirely on the shelf since the surface wave data from the SEED gaugeswere not closely sampled in time, but were instead sampled at 1 hertzover a 512 second data burst only every 8 hours. Analysis of the wavedata with the winds suggests that the wave heights likely exceeded 130feet near the eye wall of the hurricane. Orbital wave velocitiesgenerated by such large waves during Hurricane Ivan (not rogue waves)exceeded 2 meters/second at the ocean bottom (in addition tolower-frequency measured currents that exceeded 1 meter/second) andcould certainly have caused much damage to underwater structures andpipelines.The measurement of "super waves" cannot be planned and are indeedvery rare. These in-situ measurements made by NRL directly under acategory 4 hurricane are very valuable since they can be used toprovide an assessment of potential impacts to offshore structures andoperations by energetic storm waves. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
August 5, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050805064901.htm | NOAA Raises 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook | A very active Atlantic hurricane season is underway, and with morestorms projected, NOAA today increased the number of storms in its 2005hurricane season outlook. NOAA expects an additional 11 to 14 tropicalstorms from August through November, with seven to nine becominghurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes. In total, thisseason is likely to yield 18 to 21 tropical storms, with nine to 11becoming hurricanes, including five to seven major hurricanes. | "The tropics are only going to get busier as we enter the peak ofthe season," said Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.), director ofthe NOAA National Weather Service. "This may well be one of the mostactive Atlantic hurricane seasons on record, and will be the ninthabove-normal Atlantic hurricane season in the last eleven years.""Although we have already seen a record-setting seven tropicalstorms during June and July, much of the season's activity is still tocome," said Gerry Bell, lead meteorologist on NOAA's Atlantic HurricaneSeasonal Outlook. The predicted high levels of activity during theremainder of the season are consistent with NOAA's pre-season outlookissued last spring, and are comparable to those seen during August toOctober of the very active 2003 and 2004 seasons.Atmospheric and oceanic conditions that favor an active hurricaneseason are now in place, as was predicted in the pre-season outlook."Warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear areamong the culprits behind these stronger and more numerous storms,"Bell added.This confluence of optimal ocean and atmosphere conditions has beenknown to produce increased tropical storm activity in multi-decadal(approximately 20-30 year) cycles. Because of this, NOAA expects acontinuation of above-normal seasons for another decade or perhapslonger. NOAA's research shows that this reoccurring cycle is thedominant climate factor that controls Atlantic hurricane activity. Anypotentially weak signal associated with longer-term climate changeappears to be a minor factor.The multi-decadal signal that has contributed to increased Atlanticactivity since 1995 has also produced a marked decrease in hurricanesin the eastern Pacific hurricane region. Similar conditions alsoproduced very active Atlantic hurricane seasons during the 1950s and1960s. In contrast, the opposite phase of this signal during 1970-1994resulted in only three above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons in theentire 25-year period.Conditions that steer hurricanes toward land are well known, but aredifficult to predict on seasonal time scales and are often related todaily weather patterns. However, historical records indicate that anaverage of two to three additional hurricanes could strike the U.S.between August and November."Knowing precisely where a hurricane will strike and at whatintensity cannot be determined even a few days in advance," said MaxMayfield, director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center. Mayfieldadds, "Residents and government agencies of coastal and near-coastalregions should embrace hurricane preparedness efforts and should beready well before a tropical storm or hurricane watch is posted."An average Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 throughNovember 30, produces 10 named storms in which six become hurricanes,including two major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph. The mostactive hurricane season was in 1933 with 21 storms, followed by 1995with 19 storms. The most hurricanes in a season was 12 in 1969, and thehighest number of major hurricanes was eight in 1950.The 2005 Atlantic hurricane outlook is a joint product of scientistsat NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, Hurricane Research Division andNational Hurricane Center. NOAA meteorologists use a suite ofsophisticated numerical models and high-tech tools to forecast tropicalstorms and hurricanes. Scientists rely on information gathered by NOAAand the U.S. Air Force Reserve personnel who fly directly into stormsin hurricane hunter aircraft; NOAA, NASA and the U.S. Department ofDefense satellites; NOAA data buoys, weather radars and partners amongthe international meteorological services.NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is dedicated toenhancing economic security and national safety through the predictionand research of weather and climate-related events and providingenvironmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
July 26, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/07/050726074054.htm | Ocean Spray Lubricates Hurricane Winds | Berkeley -- Hurricane Emily's 140-mile-per-hour winds, which last week blew roofs off hotels and flattened trees throughout the Caribbean, owed their force to an unlikely culprit -- ocean spray. | According to a new study by two University of California, Berkeley, mathematicians and their Russian colleague, the water droplets kicked up by rough seas serve to lubricate the swirling winds of hurricanes and cyclones, letting them build to speeds approaching 200 miles per hour. Without the lubricating effect of the spray, the mathematicians estimate, winds would rise to little more than 25 miles per hour. "This is not a small effect," said Alexandre Chorin, professor of mathematics at UC Berkeley and faculty researcher at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). He and fellow UC Berkeley mathematics professor Grigory I. Barenblatt, also of LBNL, along with V. M. Prostokishin of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology in Moscow, published their analysis of the effect of ocean spray in the Early Online Edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Over the past decade, the three mathematicians have developed a body of equations to describe turbulence in fluids and have applied these equations to many practical problems. Turbulence slows flowing liquids or gases by generating eddies, swirls and vortices, and thus plays a role in keeping airplanes aloft, slowing ships and taming rivers. "Turbulence is generally a good thing," Chorin said, noting that without turbulence the Mississippi River at its mouth would be flowing at supersonic speed. "You need turbulence to make friction stronger." The equations, when applied to a cloud of water droplets sandwiched between flowing air and water, indicate that large water droplets thrown up by cresting waves in rough seas inhibit the turbulence in the air over the ocean. Without this turbulence to drain energy from the swirling winds, winds can build to tremendous speeds. Without turbulence, friction between the air and water would be reduced by a factor of 1,000, Chorin said, sometimes allowing winds to rise to speeds eight times greater than would be the case with turbulence. The turbulent vortices in the air are suppressed by the droplets when they rain back into the sea, somewhat like "combing unruly hair," Chorin said. These droplets are about 20 microns across (8 ten-thousandths of an inch) or larger. The smaller the droplets, the less ability they have to suppress the turbulence, he said, which suggests one way to calm hurricanes. "If you could develop a detergent to reduce the size of the droplets, you might be able to stop a hurricane," he said. "That's not as far fetched as it sounds. In ancient times, sailors carried oil to pour out on the water to calm storms. Pouring oil on choppy waters was not a superstition." In their paper, the mathematicians conclude that "We think that the action of oil was exactly the prevention of the formation of droplets! The turbulence was restored after the oil was dropped, the turbulent drag increased, and the intensity of the squall was reduced. Possibly hurricanes can be similarly prevented or damped by having airplanes deliver fast decaying harmless surfactants to the right places on the sea surface." The team began working on the problem after a colleague, Sir M. James Lighthill, suggested to Barenblatt at a party that drops in ocean spray might have a lubricating effect on hurricane winds. Hurricanes or, more properly, tropical cyclones, form at low-pressure areas over warm, tropical oceans. Swirling air is accelerated by energy from the warm water. Lighthill was unable to solve the problem before his untimely swimming death in 1998, but his friends took on the task employing their turbulence models. The paper is dedicated to "the great mathematician and fluid mechanician Sir James Lighthill." Whereas Lighthill thought that evaporation of the droplets cooled the atmosphere and led to accelerated winds, Chorin, Barenblatt and Prostokishin have showed that more important is the reduction of turbulence by falling droplets. Nevertheless, they note that evaporative cooling also serves to reduce turbulence and thus allow winds to build. The work was supported by the U. S. Department of Energy | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
July 11, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/07/050711014454.htm | NASA Offers A Real-time 3-D Look At The Inside Of Hurricanes | Seeing how rain falls from top to bottom and how heavy the rain falls throughout parts of a tropical cyclone is very important to hurricane forecasters. NASA has sped up the process of getting this data within three hours, and making it appear in 3-D. The new process now gives information quickly enough for forecasters to use. | Scientists at NASA have developed a way to process radar data from NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's (JAXA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite that can help with forecasting changes in a hurricane's intensity."What's important is that the vertical rain structure data used to take a longer time to process," said Jeffrey Halverson, Meteorologist and TRMM Education and Outreach Scientist. With hurricane forecasts, events change quickly, and meteorologists need data as fast as possible. This new process gives them data within three hours from the time the satellite has flown over a tropical cyclone."TRMM is a unique satellite that is able to estimate rainfall measurements from space, and rainfall is a key ingredient in hurricanes. For example, heaviest concentrations of rainfall for example are found around the eye or center of the hurricane. Scientists can tell, based on if the rain is getting stronger or weaker, whether or not the hurricane is strengthening or weakening.In 2004, research confirmed that when larger towering clouds reach a certain height surrounding the hurricane's open eye, in what is called the "eye-wall," they can be associated with a strengthening storm. TRMM can identify these "hot towers" of piled up clouds and cam help make forecasts more accurate.Because the TRMM satellite covers the tropical areas of the entire globe, the Precipitation Radar (PR) instrument takes snapshots of storms as it passes by. Every time it passes over a named tropical cyclone anywhere in the world, the PR will send data to create these 3-D "snapshots" of the storms.The hurricane snapshot will show forecasters information on how heavy the rain is falling from different parts of the storm, such as the in eye-wall versus the outer rainbands, for example. It also gives a 3-D look at the cloud heights and "hot towers" inside the storm. Higher hot towers around the eye usually indicate a strengthening storm.The snapshot also gives valuable information about how the storm is put together. For example, when scientists studying a snapshot see that the body of the hurricane may be tilted inward to the hot towers, it could give clues as to whether a wind shear, or a sudden change in direction of winds near the top of the storm, may impact the storm's strength. Normally, when a hurricane runs into a strong wind shear, it weakens.Forecasters and the general public can access the data and look into the eye of a storm by going to the TRMM website. The website can be found at: http://trmm.gfsc.nasa.gov."We hope this new data product will help the community to better assess the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones," Halverson said. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
July 10, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/07/050710102939.htm | Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Another Above Normal Season Expected | NOAA hurricane forecasters are predicting another above-normal hurricane season on the heels of last year's destructive and historic hurricane season. "NOAA's prediction for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season is for 12 to 15 tropical storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator at a recent news conference in Bay St. Louis, Miss. "Forecaster confidence that this will be an active hurricane season is very high." | NOAA's Atlantic hurricane outlook reflects an expected continuation of above-average activity that began in 1995. Since that time all but two Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above-normal. Hurricane season starts on June 1 and ends November 30. (Click NOAA image for larger view of 2005 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. Please credit "NOAA.")"Impacts from hurricanes, tropical storms and their remnants do not stop at the coast," states retired Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, director of the NOAA National Weather Service. "As we kick off National Hurricane Preparedness Week and look at another highly active season, preparation plans should consider that these storms carry severe weather, such as tornadoes and flooding, while moving inland."Although it's too soon to predict where and when a storm may hit land, NOAA still cautions the public to be prepared."Last year's hurricane season provided a reminder that planning and preparation for a hurricane do make a difference. Residents in hurricane vulnerable areas who had a plan, and took individual responsibility for acting on those plans, faired far better than those who did not," said Max Mayfield, director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center.An update to the Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August just prior to the season's historical peak from late August through October.In contrast to the Atlantic, a below-normal hurricane season is expected in the Eastern and Central Pacific. NOAA's outlook for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, also released today, calls for 11-15 tropical storms, with six to eight becoming hurricanes of which two to four may become major hurricanes. Two or three tropical cyclones are projected for the Central Pacific.The 2005 Atlantic hurricane outlook is a joint product of scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Hurricane Research Division and National Hurricane Center. NOAA meteorologists use a suite of sophisticated numerical models and high-tech tools to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes. Scientists rely on information gathered by NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Reserve personnel who fly directly into the storms in hurricane hunter aircraft; NOAA, NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense satellites; NOAA data buoys, weather radars and partners among the international meteorological services.NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
June 29, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/06/050629065849.htm | Research: Florida Getting Better At Protecting Homes From Hurricanes | GAINESVILLE, Fla. --- New Florida homes withstood last year's four hurricanes better than their older counterparts -- thanks in large measure to continued improvements in the state's hurricane building code, say University of Florida engineers. | UF engineering researchers have completed one of the most extensive studies of how homes built before and after Florida's latest building code held up against Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan. Their conclusion: Homes built under the Florida Building Code that became effective in 2002 sustained less damage on average than those built between 1994 and 2001 under the Standard Building Code. Homes completed before 1994, meanwhile, fared worse. "The iterations and changes over the years to the codes Florida uses have made a measurable difference," said Kurt Gurley, a UF associate professor of civil engineering and the lead investigator on the project. The engineers, whose study of 200 homes was funded with a $90,000 grant from the Florida Building Commission through the Florida Department of Community Affairs, present their report today at the FBC's meeting in St. Petersburg. A subcommittee will mull the study as well as other research and information to help steer recommendations for possible new code changes later this year. The UF research is important because it demonstrates that quality codes are a key part of the prescription against hurricane damage, said Jeff Burton, building code manager at the Tampa-based Institute for Business & Home Safety, a building safety advocacy group whose engineering experts participated in the study. That's especially true outside Florida, already considered the nation's leader in wind protection codes, Burton said. "Comparatively speaking, there are other states that have no codes that have a high probability of a hurricane making landfall," he said. "In my line of work, I go to various states and try to educate them. Unless you have proof that they need codes, number one, and number two, that they actually work, it's a hard sell." Gurley's team, which also included engineers from Florida International University and Florida A&M University, compared homes in the path of the highest wind zones generated by the hurricanes. The study did not formally include homes built before 1994, when the Standard Building Code's high wind standard became widely used in coastal areas. However, the researchers got a good idea of damage to pre-1994 homes as a result of their visits to storm-damaged neighborhoods. The engineers interviewed homeowners, examined photos and other records of damage and inspected homes for construction method -- noting, for example, the size and spacing of nails used to affix roofing plywood to rafters. Besides Gurley, the UF team included civil engineering graduate student Rob Davis, Jimmy Jesteadt, Sean-Paul Ferrera, Ryan Chancey, and Luis Aponte, as well as undergraduate students. Among the group's findings: Shingle-roofed homes built under the 2002 code retained more asphalt shingles than homes built under the 1994 code. Retaining shingles is critical in hurricanes because loss of too many can compromise the roof, allowing rain to enter the attic and living space. The new code requires shingles rated to withstand higher winds than the previous code. In Charlotte County, for example, nearly 30 percent of the surveyed homes built under the new code that faced Hurricane Charley's highest recorded wind gusts -- as high as 150 mph -- had no shingle damage. But every surveyed home built under the previous code experienced at least some shingle loss. Among those homes that did lose shingles, meanwhile, very few surveyed new homes experienced a loss of more than 10 percent. But 10 percent was the minimum for older homes, with many losing far higher percentages. The benefits of the more rugged roof are clear in the study, but it can be tricky to determine the relative effects of code improvements from other issues such as aging, Gurley added. The team also found that a recent requirement for reinforced garage doors proved very effective. Most of the homes surveyed were built with this requirement, and none had significant garage door damage. However, researchers saw many pre-1994 homes whose weaker garage doors were blown off their tracks, a failure that often allowed wind to enter the house, damage the contents and attack the integrity of the roof from inside. Despite the noticeable improvement in performance among new homes versus old homes, homes built under the newest code did not survive unscathed, Gurley said. Common failures among new homes include soffits, or vents located underneath roof overhangs to allow air to circulate through the attic. Wind sometimes damaged or blew out these soffits, allowing wind-driven rain to enter the attic, soaking insulation and even damaging ceilings and home contents in some cases, Gurley said. Gurley said improving soffit performance is one area the Florida Building Commission will likely tackle in its next set of code revisions, among other issues. He said his research shows that although there will never be a perfect building code, Florida has a good track record of improving standards. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
June 16, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/06/050616063125.htm | Rapid-scanning Doppler On Wheels Keeps Pace With Twisters | BOULDER--A multibeam Doppler radar that can scan tornadic storms every 5 to 10 seconds is prowling the Great Plains through June 30 in search of its first close-up tornado. Engineers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder helped build the Rapid-Scan Doppler on Wheels (DOW). | Together with a powerful analysis technique pioneered by NCAR scientist Wen-Chau Lee, the radar--newly enhanced for its first full spring of thunderstorm tracking--promises the most complete picture to date of tornado evolution. The radar is being deployed this spring, along with another DOW unit, by NCAR scientific visitor Joshua Wurman (Center for Severe Weather Research, or CSWR) from a temporary base in Hays, Kansas. Most Doppler radars transmit only a single beam, which takes about 5 minutes to make the vertical and horizontal scans needed for a three-dimensional storm portrait. But tornadoes can develop or dissipate in a minute or less. With its 5- to 10-second resolution and close range, the Rapid-Scan DOW can detail these critical steps in tornado behavior. "The development of the Rapid-Scan DOW is an important advancement for meteorological research," said Steve Nelson, director of NSF' The first DOW was deployed in 1995. Since then, Wurman' As part of a $1.6 million NSF grant, Wurman and Curtis Alexander (University of Oklahoma) are analyzing the entire DOW data set on tornadoes to uncover new information, such as how closely tornado diameters are correlated with top wind speeds. Other scientists at OU and Pennsylvania State University will also carry out DOW analyses through the grant. "We can' Wurman and Lee plan to select a few tornadoes for more in-depth study. They' The structure found in the Mulhall tornado had been observed for many years in lab experiments and computer models, but it had never been verified by radar data. Lee expects to find a simpler structure in weak tornadoes, without the central downdraft observed in Mulhall. "We want to use DOW data to analyze more tornadoes of different sizes and intensities and see how they compare to our laboratory work and our model results," Lee says. Dubbed ROTATE-05, the field work is supported by the National Geographic Society. Design and construction of the Rapid-Scan DOW is funded by the National Science Foundation, which is also NCAR' Opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. On the Web: | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
June 4, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/06/050603074856.htm | Rapid-Scanning Doppler On Wheels Keeps Pace With Twisters | A new Doppler radar instrument that can scan tornadoes every five to 10 seconds is prowling the Great Plains this spring in search of its first close-up twister. Newly enhanced for season-long thunderstorm tracking, the radar promises the most complete picture to date of tornado evolution, allowing for better tornado prediction in the future. | Known as the Rapid-Scan Doppler on Wheels (DOW), the instrument was deployed from a temporary base in Hays, Kan., by scientist Joshua Wurman of the Center for Severe Weather Research. Engineers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., helped build the DOW, which is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF).Most Doppler radars transmit only a single beam, which takes about five minutes to make the vertical and horizontal scans needed for a three-dimensional storm portrait. But tornadoes can develop or dissipate in a minute or less. With its five- to 10-second resolution, the Rapid-Scan DOW can detail these critical steps in tornado behavior at close range."The development of the multi-beam mobile Doppler radar is an important advance in meteorological research," says Steve Nelson, director of NSF's physical and dynamic meteorology program, which funded the research. "This new radar will collect higher resolution data than were possible in the past, giving us unique measurements of rapidly evolving meteorological phenomena like tornadoes."The first DOW was deployed in 1995. Since then, Wurman and his colleagues have collected data on more than 100 tornadoes. On May 3, 1999, a DOW measured a world-record wind speed of 301 miles per hour just above ground level in an Okla. tornado.As part of a $1.6 million NSF grant, Wurman and Curtis Alexander of the University of Oklahoma are analyzing the entire DOW data set on tornadoes to uncover new information, such as how closely tornado diameters are correlated with top wind speeds."We can't answer basic questions about 'typical' tornadoes right now, such as how strong their winds are," says Wurman. "By looking at these cases, we hope to better understand the features of many types of tornadoes." These findings could be compared to storm types to produce improved warnings, Wurman adds.Wurman and NCAR scientists plan to select a few tornadoes for more in-depth study. They'll use a technique called velocity track display (VTD), originally developed for hurricane studies, that allows scientists to extract three-dimensional wind information from a single Doppler radar.The scientists have already used VTD with DOW data to analyze a large and intense tornado that struck Mulhall, Okla., in 1999. They discovered a central downdraft, similar to the eye of a hurricane, surrounded by a ring of updrafts blowing at near-hurricane force, with multiple small vortices rotating around this ring. The structure found in the Mulhall tornado had been observed for many years in lab experiments and computer models, but it had never before been verified by radar data.Dubbed ROTATE-05, this spring's field work is supported by the National Geographic Society. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
June 2, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/06/050602113028.htm | Hurricane Winds Most Likely To Hit N.C., Florida Cities | ORLANDO, May 27, 2005 -- Hurricane-force winds are most likely to strike this year in Cape Hatteras, N.C., and Miami Beach and Naples, Fla., according to an analysis of coastal cities by a University of Central Florida professor and a Georgia researcher released today. | Cape Hatteras has a 10.31 percent chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds this year, followed by Miami Beach at 10.16 percent and Naples at 10.01 percent, based on an analysis of hurricane tracks during the past 154 years and of ocean and climate conditions for 2005. UCF statistics professor Mark Johnson and Chuck Watson, founder of the Kinetic Analysis Corp. of Savannah, Ga., analyzed 35 cities on the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Their findings are available on The probabilities of hurricane force winds, meaning winds of 74 mph or greater, striking other U.S. cities include 9.12 percent for West Palm Beach, Fla., 6.87 percent for New Orleans; 6.66 percent for Wilmington, N.C., and 5.08 percent for Charleston, S.C. Such odds might seem low and even comforting to residents whose homes were battered by multiple storms last year. However, Johnson and Watson said residents still need to prepare to protect their homes and stock up on food, water and other supplies. Even a 5 percent chance is high. "That's a one-in-20 chance that your house will at least experience roof damage and that you could be sitting in the dark for several days," Watson said. "If you buy a lottery ticket every week for a one-in-several-million chance to get rich, doesn't it make sense to prepare for a one-in-20 or even a one-in-a-100 chance of something bad happening?" While south Florida cities such as Naples, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach are always at higher risk of storms than north Florida, this year the odds of hurricane-force winds for south Florida are well above the average over the past 154 years, Johnson and Watson concluded. The odds of hurricane-force winds hitting cities in northern Florida and along the Gulf of Mexico coast in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana are lower than usual. The researchers attributed those differences to global atmospheric patterns that control the steering currents, or the upper-level winds that determine the directions that storms follow. This year, the winds should trend more east-to-west, straight across Florida. Last year, the steering currents were directed more toward the north, which led to storm tracks such as Hurricane Charley's hitting Florida's Gulf Coast and then going northeast through the state. Johnson, an expert in the statistical aspects of hurricane modeling and forecasting, and Watson, whose specialty is geophysics and numerical modeling, have worked together on several hurricane-related research projects during the past 10 years. They have developed maps to support local mitigation strategies for the State of Florida, developed data for Caribbean governments in an effort funded by the Organization of American States and researched hurricane damage models used in the insurance industry for the North Carolina Department of Insurance. Johnson and Watson also work as consultants to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology, which reviews and accepts public and private hurricane models. Johnson has taught at the University of Central Florida since 1990. He was chairman of the UCF Statistics Department from 1990 to 1996, and he worked as a visiting scientist at the National Hurricane Center in 1996. Watson has worked in the field of natural hazards modeling since 1989 for a variety of local, state and federal agencies, and has written about remote sensing, distributed computing and natural hazards. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
May 24, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/05/050524000741.htm | Tropical Storm Adrian Unusual In Timing And Path | Only four tropical cyclones have made landfall over Guatemala or El Salvador since 1966: Tropical Storm Adrian is about to become the fifth. Adrian is the first tropical storm of the 2005 Pacific hurricane season, which officially runs from May 15 through November 30. Adrian formed on May 17, 2005, making it a slightly unusual early-season storm. No tropical cyclone has crossed Central America this early in May since records began, reports the National Hurricane Center. | Even more unusual than the timing of this storm is its path. Typically, hurricanes that form in the Eastern Pacific curve west and weaken over the ocean, or they may move north into Mexico. Adrian is moving east and is expected to make landfall over El Salvador and Guatemala on May 19. Its path is predicted to take it over the same region that was devastated by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Unlike Adrian, Mitch formed in the Atlantic and crossed this section of Central America from the east. If Adrian survives its encounter with the high mountains of Central America, it could re-emerge in the Caribbean and move over Cuba and the Bahamas. While storms occasionally cross from the Atlantic into the Pacific, it is extremely rare for a storm to move into the Atlantic from the Pacific as Adrian is set to do.Tropical Depression Adrian formed in the afternoon of May 17. By evening, the storm had intensified into a weak tropical storm, and it continued to intensify through the night. It was during this intensification period that the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) captured this image of Adrian on May 18 at 03:22 a.m. local time (09:22 UTC). A dark band of red clouds curves around a nearly closed eye in the center of the image. The red--indicative of high rain rates--shows an area of intense thunderstorms near the core. TRMM research shows that when thunderstorms such as these appear around the core, the likelihood of the storm getting stronger or intensfying goes up. Adrian was in fact intensifying when TRMM captured this image, making this a valuable picture of how a storm is born.The semi-circle of heavy rain also helped researchers identify the center of the storm early in its development. Without TRMM's precipitation radar, the storm would simply be an large blob, with no clearly defined center.The National Hurricane Center predicts that Adrian will continue to intensify, possibly into a weak hurricane, before striking the coast of Central America on May 19. Unusually warm watersb are feeding the storm. Adrian has the potential to unleash heavy rains and floods on the mudslide-prone mountainous coastal region.TRMM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japanese space agency JAXA. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
February 25, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/02/050223161057.htm | El Nino Forecasting Could Aid Fisheries Management, Disease Control, Marine Species Protection | WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Although predicting el Nino events months before they begin has become a major success story in climate prediction, a Duke University oceanographer who did early research in the field believes more could be done with the computer and satellite technology underlying these advances. | Richard Barber, who is Harvey W. Smith Professor of Biological Oceanography at Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, will outline additional uses of el Nino forecasting at an 8:30 a.m. Feb. 20 symposium during the American Association for the Advancement of Science's 2005 annual meeting in Washington, D.C.The additional uses he will discuss include managing fisheries, controlling outbreaks of tropical disease and protecting marine mammals and other ocean species.That symposium will be held in the Palladian Room on the lobby level of the Omni Shoreham Hotel.El Nino gets its name from periodic changes in ocean currents that disrupt anchovy fishing off Peru around Christmastime. This worldwide alteration of the normal monsoon cycle changes wind and ocean temperature patterns in ways that lead to flooding in parts of the Americas, droughts in Australia , Southeast Asia and parts of Africa, and a tempering of the North Atlantic hurricane season.Barber was part of an early multidisciplinary research effort called Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems Analysis that in 1971 began using scientific modeling to analyze the biological and physical changes behind what is more properly called the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).However, it took more than a decade, after 1983, before advances in supercomputing power and satellite technology allowed ENSO forecasting to "become one of the greatest success stories in American science," Barber said in an interview."With a small number of sensors we can now forecast what is going to happen with an ENSO nine months in advance with a great degree of certainty," he said. "However, we may not have a good idea about how strong the ENSO is going to be until six months before."These forecasts are now used and watched by politicians and bankers and commodity traders and all kinds of other people," Barber added. But he contends that the predictive powers of ENSO forecasting are still not being harnessed in three important areas.For one, these reliable early alerts could be used to better manage high yield fisheries that are subject to "boom and bust" cycles -- such as those for anchovies, sardines and mackerel, he said.ENSO forecasting could also be used to better control outbreaks of tropical diseases such as mosquito-caused malaria, he added. "It is possible to give the World Health Organization a nine-month, if not a 12-month, forecast of where excess rains are going to be in the tropics so they can pre-deploy their resources."Finally, scientists could use the latest technological tools to assess how ENSO-caused changes in the dynamics of the oceans are likely to relocate nutrient-rich feeding zones where over-exploited or threatened marine mammals, fish and turtles are most apt to congregate.Regulators could then prejudge where existing fishing grounds should be closed, and whether fishermen could be productively directed to alternatives sites, Barber suggested. And naval ships planning sonar exercises could avoid maneuvering in range of vulnerable marine mammals.Barber's talk will be delivered at a symposium entitled "Biological Perturbations in the Melting World's Oceans: Impacts of Climate Change." However he says the periodic alterations of weather patterns during ENSO events actually "fit in with climate variability, not with climate change." | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
February 23, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/02/050222193810.htm | Surf's Up: Professor Using Models To Predict Huge Waves | GALVESTON, Feb. 15, 2005 - If you're a ship captain and there might be 50-foot waves headed your way, you'd appreciate some information about them, right? | That's the idea behind a wave model system a Texas A&M University at Galveston professor has developed. His detailed wave prediction system is currently in use in the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of Maine.Vijay Panchang, head of the Department of Maritime Systems Engineering, doesn't make waves - he predicts what they'll do, when they'll do it and how high they'll get.Using data provided daily from NOAA and his own complex mathematical models, Panchang and research engineer Doncheng Li provide daily wave model predictions for much of the Texas coast, the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of Maine. Their simulations, updated every 12 hours, provide a forecast for two days ahead."The models we provide are based on very detailed information, such as seabed topography, offshore wave conditions, wind speed and direction and other factors," Panchang explains."It's useful information for anyone in coastal waters. Texas has a huge coastline, and Maine has more than 3,000 miles of coast. Recreational and fishing boats, cruise ships, commercial ships, and others can use this information. Coastal wave information can also be used to predict sediment transport and for engineering design."Because the models use wind data, tsunamis that are created by undersea earthquakes can't be predicted. But that's not to say his modeling system doesn't come up with some big waves.His wave model predicted big waves in November 2003 in the Gulf of Maine, and it was accurate - waves as high as 30 feet were recorded during one storm even in coastal regions.Last summer during Hurricane Ivan, a buoy located 60 miles south of the Alabama coast recorded a whopping 60-foot wave. "There may have been higher waves because right after recording the 60- foot wave, the buoy snapped and stopped functioning," he says."Also, the 50-foot wave is an average measure of the sea-state, and the highest waves could be nearly twice as big. Waves during storms can be quite high, and 50-foot waves are not uncommon," Panchang reports.He notes that during a storm in 1995 off the Halifax coast, the captain of the Queen Elizabeth II reported a monstrous 95-foot wave.Panchang is also developing a similar wave model prediction system for the Prince William Sound Oil Recovery Institute in the Alaska port of Valdez, site of the Exxon Valdez oil spill. That wave model system should be online by next year.Anyone on the water wants to know how high the waves will be when they out at sea," he says. "We provide a valuable service to those on ships and boats who want to know what the wave conditions will be like in the next 24 hours."###Funding for his wave model prediction system is provided by NOAA Sea Grant, The Texas Coastal Management Program, the Prince William Sound Oil Spill Recovery Institute and the National Marine Fisheries Service.For more information, go to | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
February 11, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/02/050211082855.htm | Bayou Blues: Working To Save The U.S. From The Worst Potential Oil, Gas And Fishing Crisis | Marrero, LA -- An impending crisis that could have a detrimental impact on the oil and gas infrastructure and fishing industry in the United States is leading scientists to investigate how to stop rapid deterioration and to start restoring marsh land in Louisiana's southern coastal wetlands - which are losing a piece of land the size of a football field every 35 minutes. All of this is part of an international broadcast expedition wrapping up conclusions and coming to an end in the Louisiana bayou with the JASON Foundation for Education. | "The loss of Louisiana's wetlands is the single most catastrophic environmental disaster ever to hit the continental U.S.," said Mark Schexnayder, a marine biologist with the Louisiana State University Agricultural Extension and Research Center-Sea Grant Program. "The consequences of loosing the wetlands are far reaching and affect everyone. Of course there are biological and ecological effects, but the biggest cost of losing the wetlands will be on oil and gas prices, causing them to rise everywhere. The oil production rigs and natural gas pipelines in Louisiana depend on the wetlands to protect their structures from storms and hurricanes. Without the wetlands, they are exposed." With environmental lessons from Asia's tsunami disaster lingering weeks later and the vigorous 2004 summer of hurricanes, Louisiana's coastal wetlands are one of the most protective barriers against such disasters and account for over 40 percent of the total salt marshlands in the United States. "Wetlands act as a storm buffer for hurricanes and other large storms," said Dr. Denise Reed, a professor of Geology and Geophysics at the University of New Orleans. "With the rapidly depleting wetlands, people that have lived in southern Louisiana can tell that over the last 30 years, large storms now come in faster and the water rises faster, which gives less time to respond and less time to evacuate. In the next few years, it's going to get worse.""The land is literally gone. Some people use the term 'the sky is falling,' but here the land is falling," Schexnayder said. "Everyone saw last summer how hurricane Ivan shot up oil prices after damaging a few oil rigs, and it didn't even have a direct hit. There's no telling how high the price of oil will go years down the line if a severe hurricane directly hits and there are less wetlands to protect the energy infrastructure and the coastline. Besides losing the oil, you'd also face the price of repairing broken pipelines, huge loses in shrimping and fishing and restructuring the whole shipping industry in New Orleans, one of the largest ports to receive goods in the United States. It would cost billions and billion of dollars."Working at Jean Lafitte National Historic Park, Barataria Preserve and Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON) facilities in Cocodrie and Port Fourchon, LA - expedition scientists are looking at how marsh subsidence (the shrinking down and compacting of soil) along with levee construction, grazing by nutria (large rodents that feed on wetland plants) and other factors all contribute to a rapid loss of wetlands."It's a sum total of all these things working together and not any one thing alone," said Reed. "We know that wetlands survive naturally and have been for thousands of years, but it has only been since the beginning of the 20th century that we have introduced these multiple factors and human factors so that now the natural processes are disrupted.""It's only in the last few years that we have gotten a handle on the rate of subsidence. We're starting to get a better idea of how this happens and how fast these things happen over time. The wetlands around New Orleans are so degraded that they provide little or no protection against large storms," Reed said. "Only a major restoration project can really help bring back those wetlands."This research program is part of JASON Expedition (formerly JASON Project), a middle school program designed to engage students in science and math by partnering them with real scientists. Using satellite broadcasts and Internet technology scientists in the field are linked with classrooms and educational institutions to allow students to interact with the JASON Expedition team in real time and receive a first-hand look at how real wetlands research is collected. Participating JASON schools around the world are playing an active role in the research by using NASA's International Space Station (ISS) Earth KAM camera to identify and to take their own photographs of wetlands from space. Students have direct access to and control of a digital camera flying on board the International Space Station and can download their wetland images within a few hours after being taken to enhance their understanding of wetlands loss.Students and the general public can see how human activity and natural processes can destroy or build wetlands at "The expedition engages students in real science, not just textbook theory," said explorer Robert Ballard, founder of the JASON Foundation for Education and best known for his discovery of the Titanic. "These students are conducting wetland experiments in their own communities, so they can determine the health and vitality of wetlands in their area." "The most important thing people can do to help save and possibly restore the wetlands is to go out and learn what the problems are. They are different for all wetlands," said Reed. "One side of Louisiana doesn't have the same problems as the other side of Louisiana. We may never get back the wetlands we have lost, but we are working to maintain them and go back to those natural processes.""You don't even have to read a book, just look at a map to see how the wetlands are vanishing," Schexnayder said. "It will probably take a natural disaster to grab everyone's attention. It's the old pay now or pay later scenario. But the bottom line is that it's easier to save than rebuild."To follow the JASON expedition's exciting research, visit The JASON Foundation for Education, based in Needham, Massachusetts, is a non-profit organization dedicated to providing new ways of teaching and new tools for learning middle-grade science and math through innovative, technology-rich educational and professional development programs. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
January 11, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/01/050110114115.htm | Hurricane Intensity Predictions Take Into Account Effect Of Large Eddies On Wind Speed | The combined Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/University of Rhode Island coupled hurricane-ocean model has helped to improve intensity predictions during tropical storms. However, scientists have found that the model consistently under-predicts maximum wind speed in very strong hurricanes. | In the current issue of the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, University of Rhode Island physical oceanographer Dr. Isaac Ginis describes how he and a team of scientists are refining the model by incorporating the factors that favor the formation of large eddies near the sea surface and their effect on wind speed and air humidity. Other members of the team include Alexander P. Khain and Elena Morozovsky of the Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel.The authors speculate that large eddies, or circular currents of air, are a pervasive feature in tropical cyclones and suggests that they can contribute significantly to the transfer of energy, heat, and moisture from the ocean to the atmosphere."Lack of adequate consideration of the large eddy effects near the surface of the ocean may be one of the reasons for the limited tropical cyclone intensity forecast skill by hurricane prediction models," said Ginis. "The recently implemented to operational Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)/ University of Rhode Island (URI) coupled hurricane-ocean model helped to improve the intensity predictions measured by the central pressure. However, it has not always translated into improvements in predicting maximum wind speed. This is mainly due to underestimations of the surface winds in strong tropical cyclones."In strong wind conditions the GFDL/URI model tends to underpredict surface wind speeds for a given central pressure. It is most likely the result of inadequate representation of the physical processes connected with the storm, in particular the contribution of large eddies in the modeling of the area near the sea surface and how the atmosphere and ocean interact.The main objective in the study was to investigate the mechanisms leading to the formation of large eddies under tropical cyclone conditions and assess their effects on the factors that determine a storm's intensity using a high-resolution, atmospheric computer model.Ginis, Khain, and Morozovsky presented a new method to describe large eddies in both general circulation and regional weather prediction models, including hurricane models. Their approach is called "superparameterization," which consists of an eddy-resolving, two-dimensional system embedded into a weather prediction model, allowing explicit simulations of large eddies.Based on the results of their numerical simulations, the scientists found that when the wind speed is high enough, a strong vertical wind shear that develops near the sea surface triggers conditions that allow for genesis of large eddies. They concluded that a strong background wind, typical for hurricanes, and evaporation from the ocean are the necessary conditions for the formation of large eddies in the lower part of the atmosphere.The experiments demonstrated that as soon as large eddies arise, they affect the transport of heat, moisture, and momentum, modifying the structure of the atmosphere and the way it interacts with the ocean. The most significant manifestation of these effects is a significant increase of the near-surface wind speed, and evaporation from the sea surface, which can double in strong winds."These results demonstrate the important role that large eddies play in high wind speed conditions," said Ginis. "Inclusion of these effects in the tropical cyclone models may potentially lead to substantial improvements in the prediction of storm intensity."Ginis's work on this project was partially supported by the National Science Foundation. Khain and Morozovsky were supported by the Lady Davis Foundation and the U.S.-Israel Binational Science Foundation. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
January 5, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/01/050104115613.htm | NOAA Reports Record Number Of Tornadoes In 2004 | Dec. 30, 2004 — The total number of tornadoes reported in the United States reached a record high during the year 2004, surpassing the previous record by almost 300, according to officials at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. The findings are based on a preliminary review of reports filed by NOAA National Weather Service forecast offices and compared to historical records dating back to 1950. (Click NOAA image for larger view of automobiles destroyed by the July 13, 2004, tornado that struck Parsons Manufacturing near Roanoke, Ill. Click here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit “NOAA.”) | "One tropical storm and five hurricanes affecting areas from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states, as well as several outbreaks in four of the last ten days in May contributed to the year's total number of 1,717 tornado reports in the U.S.," said Dan McCarthy, NOAA Storm Prediction Center warning coordination meteorologist. This tops the previous record of 1,424 tornadoes in 1998, and the total of 1,368 in 2003.Joe Schaefer, director of the NOAA Storm Prediction Center said, "Even with the record number of tornadoes, storm related fatalities were limited to 35. This shows that timely watches and warnings combined with our strong partnerships with emergency management and the media to convey that information does save lives." The reported number of 35 deaths attributed to tornadoes is significantly below the usual yearly average for these storm-related fatalities.Every year, an average of 1,200 tornadoes kill about 55 Americans, injure 1,500 people and cause more than $400 million in damage. Considered nature's most violent storms, tornadoes can occur any month of the year with peak activity from the months of March through July."In 2004, record tornado reports were largely the result of an active hurricane season during August and September. Preliminary numbers indicate a total of 173 tornadoes reported during August," McCarthy said. This significantly tops the previous August record of 126 tornadoes set in 1979. Other reports for August include: 120 tornadoes in 1994; 115 in 1992; 112 in 1993; and 108 in 1985.Preliminary data indicate a total of 247 tornadoes reported in September. This significantly tops the previous September record of 139 tornadoes set in 1967, which was mostly attributed to Hurricane Beulah, which produced tornadoes in Texas and parts of Oklahoma. Other years with high tornadic activity for September include: 104 reports in 1998; 101 reports in 1996; and 84 reports in 2001. The average number of tornadoes in the U.S. during September is 47."The number of tornadoes associated with tropical storms and hurricanes was extraordinary and can be partially blamed for the high number of overall tornado reports," McCarthy said. Tropical Storm Bonnie and five land-falling hurricanes—Charley, Frances, Gaston, Ivan and Jeanne—affected the mid-Atlantic and Southeast states during August and September. Tornadoes frequently occur in the northeast quadrant of northward advancing tropical systems or their remnants.Hurricane Frances produced the most tornadoes for a tropical system with a preliminarily number of 117 reports. Frances tops Hurricane Beulah, which spawned 115 tornadoes in September 1967. Hurricane Ivan was close with 104 tornado reports, and a total of 16 tornadoes were reported in association with Hurricane Jeanne."All in all, the year began slowly and the number of tornadoes was below normal through early May, the heart of tornado season. The weather pattern became more conducive for severe weather activity during the last part of May when 445 tornado were reported," said McCarthy.NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation’s coastal and marine resources. NOAA is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
January 4, 2005 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/01/050104115418.htm | NOAA Reports Wet, Warm Year For The U.S. In 2004 | With the end of 2004, it will rank among the top 10 wettest years on record for the contiguous United States and is expected to be warmer than average, according to scientists at the NOAA Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The findings are based on preliminary data and historical records dating back to 1895. While parts of the West remained in drought, rainfall was above average in 33 states, especially in the South and East, partly due to the effects of tropical storms and hurricanes, which impacted 20 states. | NOAA scientists report that the average temperature for the contiguous United States for 2004 (based on preliminary data) will likely be approximately 53.5 degrees F (11.9 degrees C), which is 0.7 degrees F (0.4 degrees C) above the 1895-2003 mean, and the 24th warmest year on record. Based on data through the end of November, the mean annual temperature in two states (Washington and Oregon) is expected to be much above average, with 30 states being above average, 16 contiguous states near average and no state below the long-term mean.Alaska's annual temperature is expected to be approximately 1.8 degrees F above the 1971-2000 average for 2004, one of the five warmest years for the state, since reliable records began in 1918. Alaska had a record warm summer with a statewide temperature of 4.6 degrees F (2.6 degrees C) above the 1971-2000 mean. May, June, July and August were all record breaking for the state. Much of the West Coast also had record or near record temperatures for the summer of 2004. In contrast, much of the remainder of the contiguous U.S. was relatively cool during June-August, including several cities in the Upper Midwest that had afternoon high temperatures in the low 50s during the middle of August.Spring temperatures across the U.S. were above average in all states, except Florida, which was near normal for the season. Fall was warm across much of the mid-section of the country, but the West remained near average. Winter began relatively warm in November and early December for states from the Upper Midwest to the East Coast.A major feature of the climate in the U.S. in 2004 was the number of landfalling tropical systems. Nine systems affected the U.S. including six hurricanes, three of which were classified as major on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of hurricane intensity. Four of the six hurricanes affected Florida, making it the only state since 1886 to sustain the impact of four hurricanes in one season (Texas also had four hurricanes in 1886). Hurricane Charley in August was the strongest hurricane (category 4 at landfall) to strike the U.S. since Andrew in 1992 and caused an estimated $14 billion in damage. Hurricanes Frances, Ivan and Jeanne quickly followed Charley in September.Hurricane Gaston also impacted the U.S. in August making landfall in South Carolina. In total, the hurricane season cost the U.S. an estimated $42 billion, the most costly season on record. That record has been calculated back to 1900. While there was extensive wind damage in Florida and other coastal locations, flooding was the major impact further inland. Frances impacted the Southeast and southern Appalachians after a wetter-than-average summer, causing millions of dollars in flood damage to the region. Shortly thereafter Ivan traveled a similar path through the mountains and led to widespread flooding, loss of power and landslides.In contrast to the excessive rainfall in the East, much of the West began the year with a long-term rainfall deficit. A four-to-five-year drought in parts of the West intensified during the first half of 2004 as precipitation remained below average. Drier-than-average summer conditions coupled with warmer than normal temperatures in the West exacerbated the drought conditions still further during June-August. Short-term drought relief occurred in the fall as two large storms impacted the West during October. The first major snowfall of the season was associated with these storms for the Sierra Nevada. As of early December, snowpack is above average in Utah, Arizona and Nevada but significantly below average throughout much of the Northwest as well as the eastern slope of the Rockies. Near year's end, moderate to extreme drought continued to affect large parts of the West, including Montana, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, California, Arizona and Colorado.Although the wildfire season got an early start in the western U.S., and record warm temperatures combined with less-than-average precipitation raised fire danger across the West through the summer, the season concluded as below average for the contiguous U.S. However, a record number of acres were burned in Alaska in 2004. Alaska and the adjacent Yukon Territory of Canada saw a rapid increase in fire activity in June, which was sustained through August consuming more than 6.6 million acres in Alaska. In Fairbanks, on 42 of the 92 days of summer, visibility was reduced from smoke associated with the wildfires. This compares to the previous record of 19 days in 1977.The average global temperature anomaly for combined land and ocean surfaces from January-December 2004 (based on preliminary data) is expected to be 0.55 degrees F (0.31 degrees C) above the 1880-2003 long-term mean, making 2004 the 4th warmest year since 1880 (the beginning of reliable instrumental records). Averaged over the year, land surface temperatures were anomalously warm throughout western North America, southern and western Asia and Europe. Boreal fall (September-November) as well as November were warmest on record for combined land and ocean surfaces.Other notable climate events and anomalies across the world in 2004 include an active tropical season in the Northwest Pacific with Japan sustaining ten tropical storm landfalls, exceeding the previous record of six; below normal monsoon rainfall for India, especially in the Northwest part of the country; flooding in Northeastern India from monsoon rains in June-October; a rare hurricane in the South Atlantic in March; and an extensive and severe heat wave in Australia during February.Sea surface temperatures in much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific increased during the latter half of 2004 as weak El Niño conditions developed. Though global impacts have been slow to develop, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center expects the current El Niño to persist through early 2005, bringing drier-than-average conditions to Indonesia, northern Australia and southeastern Africa.The National Climatic Data Center is part of the NOAA Satellites and Information Service, America's primary source of space-based oceanographic, meteorological and climate data. The NOAA Satellites and Information Service operates the nation's environmental satellites, which are used for ocean and weather observation and forecasting, climate monitoring, and other environmental applications. Some of the oceanographic applications include sea surface temperature for hurricane and weather forecasting and sea surface heights for El Niño prediction.NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation’s coastal and marine resources. NOAA is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,005 |
December 17, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/11/041123210203.htm | Oceanographers Combine Numerical Models To Improve Hurricane Research | Understanding how the air and sea interact and affect each other during hurricane conditions is crucial in predicting the storm track, its intensity, storm surges, and ocean wave fields. When scientists create computer models to help them assess the parameters of a hurricane, they must take into account not only the atmospheric conditions of the storm, but also the conditions in the ocean, including the age and the frequency of waves. | In the current issue of the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, University of Rhode Island physical oceanographers Il-Ju Moon, Isaac Ginis and Tetsu Hara have published two companion papers that investigate the how surface waves and wind affect the dynamics of growing seas and complex seas under extreme hurricane conditions using a combination of computer models. Other collaborators on the project include Stephen Belcher, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Berkshire, England, and Hendrik Tolman, the NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD.The team of scientists combined three computer models to ascertain their results. The NOAA WAVEWATCH III ocean surface wave model accounts for wind input, wave-wave interaction and dissipation due to whitecapping, and wave-bottom interaction. The equilibrium spectrum model, created by Hara and Belcher, estimates the effect of the wind on the ocean by taking into account the stress caused by the waves. The wave boundary layer model, also created by Hara and Belcher, explicitly calculates the near-surface wind profile, as well as the surface drag created by the waves. In the first study, the combined model predicted the effect of the wind-wave interaction by calculating how the waves contribute to the dynamics of a mature and growing sea. The second study followed the same approach, but focused on the effect of surface waves on air-sea exchange in extreme complex seas forced by tropical cyclones.The scientists found a new characterization of the effect of surface waves on air-sea momentum under hurricane wind forcing. The size and location of the waves as well as the wind speed and direction and their impact on the other create a variety of conditions that can affect the track and intensity of a hurricane. The research team determined that the coupling of a surface wave model with a hurricane model is necessary for accurate predictions of track and intensity. This finding is significant because the wind-wave interaction is presently ignored by hurricane prediction models."There have been impressive strides taken in the quality of hurricane track forecasting over the last 10 years mainly due to improved computer models," said Ginis. "However, there appears to be still limited skill in predicting storm intensity changes. In light of the fundamental role the air-sea interaction processes play in supplying energy to the hurricane, our results seem to be promising for major improvements in hurricane intensity forecasting."The combined models used in this project have helped scientists to further understand the interaction of the atmosphere and the ocean by introducing parameters that describe the ocean waves under high wind conditions, including during a tropical cyclone. Additional factors, such as the effect of breaking waves and sea spray, may also play an important role in air-sea interaction and momentum, but the team of scientists predicts that adding parameters will only further confirm their results.###The URI Graduate School of Oceanography is one of the country's largest marine science education programs, and one of the world's foremost marine research institutions. Founded in 1961 in Narragansett, RI, GSO serves a community of scientists who are researching the causes of and solutions to such problems as harmful algal blooms, global warming, air and water pollution, oil spills, overfishing, and coastal erosion. GSO is home to the Coastal Institute, the Coastal Resources Center, Rhode Island Sea Grant, the Institute for Archaeological Oceanography, the Pell Marine Science Library, and the National Sea Grant Library. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
November 29, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/11/041123213749.htm | Riders On The Storm: Drifting Buoys & Floats Weather Hurricanes For Better Storm Prediction | While some are still cleaning up from the series of hurricanes that plowed through the Caribbean and southern United States this season, scientists supported by the Office of Naval Research are busily cleaning up valuable data collected during the storms. The rapid-fire hurricanes barely gave researchers time to rest between flights that took them into the hearts of Hurricanes Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. As part of a project called CBLAST, for Coupled Boundary Layer/Air-Sea Transfer, researchers air-dropped specially designed instruments into the paths of the hurricanes--and into the hurricanes themselves. | "This season has seen a breakthrough in hurricane and oceanographic research," said ONR program manager Dr. Carl Friehe. "Real-time data sent back by the drifters and floats have created great interest among oceanographers, meteorologists, and hurricane forecasters." Project CBLAST-Hurricane focuses on the energy exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere during a hurricane, and how those interactions affect a storm's intensity (a separate CBLAST component studies low-wind interactions). By better understanding these energy exchanges, scientists can develop better models to predict a hurricane's development. A hurricane's intensity determines the size of the storm surge of water that precedes it--which can pose a significant threat to ships in port.New instruments that can measure the ocean water's temperature, salt content, and velocity--before, during, and after a hurricane--are providing a unique view of the conditions that affect a storm's intensity. While satellites can provide ocean temperature data, they only monitor the "skin" or surface of the ocean down to just 1/8th of an inch. To reach into lower depths, ONR has sponsored the development of new ocean probes by Dr. Eric D'Asaro and Dr. Tom Sanford of the University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory (Seattle), and Dr. Peter Niiler and Dr. Eric Terrill of Scripps Institution of Oceanography (La Jolla, Ca).The data collected on water conditions over the course of a hurricane are crucial to forecast modeling because "the ocean is the gasoline for the hurricane's engine," explained ONR's Friehe. During the summer and fall, the sun warms the top hundred meters or so of the ocean. Hurricanes only form over these warm ocean regions, where water easily evaporates and is picked up by swirling weather patterns. "In order to build a model that can predict a storm's development, we need to know exactly how much energy is in the water, as well as how it is distributed by depth and location between Africa and the Caribbean," he said.The floats from the UW Applied Physics Lab and Scripps are programmed to bob up and down through the upper 200 meters (656 ft) of the ocean, measuring the water's temperature, salinity, dissolved gases, and velocity. They also monitor underwater sounds as part of a study to develop methods of measuring hurricane force winds and rainfall. The floats from the Applied Physics Lab are deployed in a line perpendicular to a hurricane's path, so that one is centered on the eye, another is about 50 km (27 nautical miles) to the north of the eye, and a third 100 km (54 nm) to the north. Each time the instruments reach the water's surface, they transmit data back to scientists using satellite communications.Drifters from the Scripps team remain on the ocean's surface, floating like bottles with a message that's constantly updated as their instruments measure air pressure, wind speed and direction, and sea surface temperature. They can collect data for as long as their batteries continue to function (up to several months) or they can be picked up by passing ships for reuse and downloading of more detailed information than they are able to transmit. The drifters and floats were dropped into the paths of this season's hurricanes by the U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (Keesler AFB, Miss.) from two C130J Hercules aircraft. The probes parachuted into the ocean and automatically began taking measurements. They returned time series of ocean profiles that documented the upwelling and mixing caused by the hurricanes. Several of the floats and drift buoys obtained an unprecedented second set of hurricane observations as Hurricane Jeanne followed closely on the path of Frances.While the drifters and floats weathered the storms from sea level and below, other CBLAST instruments--and researchers--flew through Hurricane Jeanne in two National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WP-3D aircraft. From various altitudes throughout the storms, and with the help of fixed and deployed instruments, they collected data on air temperature and pressure, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. The combination of atmospheric and ocean science, technology (GPS, cell phones, miniature computers, etc.), deployment via aircraft, and the need for better hurricane forecasting have all come together in 2004 to mark a sea change in hurricane research, according to Friehe.NOAA provides project management for CBLAST, as well as researchers, aircraft, flight crews, and other support through its Hurricane Research Division, Aircraft Operations Center, and Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. Researchers from the University of Miami, Rosenstiel School; University of Washington Applied Physics Lab; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; and the University of Massachusetts Microwave Remote Sensing Laboratory also participated. The 5-year (FY01-FY05) funding amount for CBLAST Hurricane is: $5.3 M from ONR and $0.7 M from NOAA's U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP). | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
November 23, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/11/041117003102.htm | Los Alamos Computers Map Hurricane Utility Impacts | LOS ALAMOS, N.M., Nov. 10, 2004 -- Predicting with uncanny accuracy the effects of recent hurricanes, Los Alamos National Laboratory computer models are helping the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Assurance, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and other organizations plan for future disasters. For those in the paths of hurricane devastation, tools such as the Los Alamos infrastructure models could mean their lights and gas return to service hours or even days more rapidly. | "The comparison of actual effects to those predicted by the computer models was amazingly close, considering the variable storm tracks," said Steve Fernandez, leader of the Los Alamos Energy & Infrastructure Analysis team. Working to model electric power restoration across storm-damaged areas, the scientists have been able to provide detailed information to planners on the exact infrastructure impacts, a feat even more remarkable in that the models were run before the hurricanes made landfall.The computer models were put to the test under fire as Hurricane Jeanne approached the Florida coast in September. Multi-agency teams assembled in the state emergency operations center in Tallahassee and the national emergency operations center in Washington. These command centers coordinated the evacuation and recovery activities as the hurricane approached and then moved through Florida and other southern regions. The models supplied updated predictions to the two centers and to the decision makers responding to the approaching storm.Electric power restoration data became a key focus for FEMA's first-response personnel, the groups that arrive immediately after the storm hits to provide the first emergency services (water, sanitation, communication). The Los Alamos outage maps helped with early identification of the areas needing first deployment and state of services FEMA staff would likely find when they arrived. A second FEMA team, responsible for energy issues and working closely with industry, state and local stakeholders, needed the Los Alamos data to help publicize the electric power conditions returning residents should be expecting, and to assist utility planning to restore electricity to the area.An outgrowth of the event is a potential collaborative effort with Florida Light and Power to help prepare their planners and responders for next year's hurricane season.The Los Alamos computer modeling effort for infrastructure protection has a core team of 40 staffers, and they run their simulations on a range of high-end desktop computers with enhanced graphic-processing capability, including laptops, desktops and cluster systems.Los Alamos has a strong history in the use of computer modeling to examine critical infrastructures and how their interconnected nature can make them vulnerable. From battlefield analysis to storm-impact studies, Los Alamos scientists have built tools that help planners and first responders make the best decisions in hard situations.With the TRANSIMs traffic modeling tools, now commercialized, regional planners were given the ability to virtually explore different patterns of roadways, watching computerized commuters navigate through changing cityscapes.Using EpiSims, scientists have explored such questions as how different smallpox vaccination plans would affect the spread of an outbreak, while Urban Atmospheric Transport models have predicted the spread of chemical and biological agents if released on the streets of a major city.A prototype version of the Interdependent Energy Infrastructure Simulation System (IEISS) was used in preparation for the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics, and now has matured to allow researchers to identify critical components and vulnerabilities in coupled infrastructure systems to (1) assess how future investments in the systems might affect quality of service; (2) perform integrated cost-benefit studies; (3) evaluate the effects of regulatory policies; and (4) aid in decision-making during crises. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
November 12, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/11/041104010101.htm | Hurricane Ivan Helps Virginia Tech Student Study Sinkholes | Blacksburg, Va., November 2, 2004 -- A Virginia Tech graduate student put a car battery and Hurricane Ivan to good use in his studies of sinkholes. | Benjamin Schwartz, of Doe Hill, Va., Highland County, a Ph.D. student in geosciences in the College of Science, is using an innovative technique to characterize ground water movement in sinkholes. His goal is to recommend management strategies to reduce contamination of aquifers in regions that are rife with sinkholes. Hurricane Ivan's downpour in Southwest Virginia allowed him to measure changes in underground water during a short four-day period.Schwartz will present his findings at the 116th national meeting of the Geological Society of America in Denver on Nov. 7 through 10.Sinkholes generally form over limestone and dolomite. That rock dissolves and the earth on the surface subsides. Water from the sinkhole either seeps into the subsurface or runs in through a fissure or cave opening and rapidly enters the aquifer."People up and down the Shenandoah Valley get their water from aquifers," Schwartz said. "Often, these aquifers are contaminated. Sources of contamination include runoff from paved surfaces or because a good portion of Virginia's agricultural land is on karst terrain. There is little filtration between surface water and karst aquifers."Karst is a term used for a landscape where water movement is underground because of the voids in the bedrock.Schwartz is using six sinkholes on Virginia Tech's Kentland Farm along the New River in Montgomery County to measure how water and contaminants move within a sinkhole, that is, the hydrology and chemical transport in a sinkhole. He is looking at depth to bedrock (soil thickness), slope within the sinkhole, drainage area, and land use – such as wood land, crop land, or pasture ("Cattle love to stand in sinkholes.") to determine if such sinkhole characteristics indicate what is happening underground.He is using a geophysical technique called electrical resistivity. Current is passed through the soil using a car battery attached to two electrodes embedded in the soil. By using an array of 25 embedded electrodes, and by changing the locations of the current electrodes, voltages can then be measured at different electrodes in the array. Nearly 200 measurements are taken using a single array. "If you know the voltage and current, you can calculate the resistance," Schwartz said.Different degrees of electrical resistance allow him to identify water, rock, soil and voids to a depth of about 15 meters and create a model of the subsurface. Schwartz also may be able to determine the water's chemistry by the changes in electrical resistance measured in an aquifer. He explains that sitting or pooled water becomes saturated with minerals while fresh rainwater has a low dissolved mineral content. Fresh water conducts electricity poorly compared to water loaded with minerals.Depressions in the bedrock surface also can store contaminants. When rain and runoff pour water through caverns and fissures, the contaminants are flushed out of the depressions and into the aquifer.Schwartz took advantage of Hurricane Ivan to measure a rapid change in water movement under a sinkhole. "I went out before the hurricane and ran two transects (measurements from lines of electrodes) as a control. I left the electrodes in place then made four measurements as the storm moved through and afterward." He said he only actually got rained on once.The resulting two-dimensional computer model showed the changes in water movement. "I saw that water was not sinking evenly or being taken up like a sponge, but that there are preferential flow paths."Next, he will create a 3-D model by placing the electrodes in a grid, which will allow him to add the direction of water movement to his model. He combines the electrical resistivity measurements with a topographic map of the surface to create a 3-D model of the bedrock and land surfaces. But he won't have to wait for another hurricane. "If a rain event is predicted, I can take base line measurements then monitor the site. But another 3- to 4-inch rainfall would be nice."Soon, to confirm his interpretations from this new use of electrical resistivity, Schwartz will drill a series of wells.Schwartz will present the paper, "Hydrologic characterization of sinkholes in agricultural settings," at 2:15 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 7, in room 205 of the Colorado Convention Center. Co-authors are Madeline Schreiber, assistant professor of geosciences at Virginia Tech, and William Orndorff of the Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation, Division of Natural Heritage, Karst Project.Orndorff earned his master's degree in geosciences from Virginia Tech. Schwartz earned his bachelor's degree in geology from Radford University. He is just beginning his Ph.D. program.Founded in 1872 as a land-grant college, Virginia Tech has grown to become among the largest universities in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Today, Virginia Tech's eight colleges are dedicated to putting knowledge to work through teaching, research, and outreach activities and to fulfilling its vision to be among the top research universities in the nation. At its 2,600-acre main campus located in Blacksburg and other campus centers in Northern Virginia, Southwest Virginia, Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Roanoke, Virginia Tech enrolls more than 28,000 full- and part-time undergraduate and graduate students from all 50 states and more than 100 countries in 180 academic degree programs. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
November 10, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/11/041109235823.htm | Oceanographers: Fish Sang Through Hurricane Charley | While legend records that Nero fiddled as Rome burned, University of South Florida College of Marine Science biological oceanographers David Mann and James Locascio have documented that during Hurricane Charley, fish in Charlotte Harbor that normally sing “love songs” while spawning sang their hearts out, and louder than ever during the storm. The scientists, who regularly eavesdrop on the unique sounds fish make during spawning, went back to their recorded data after Charley’s fury and found the hurricane did not inhibit the nightly chorus of singing, love-struck fish. Fish sound levels on the evening of Charley - and for three days thereafter - were higher than the days prior to the storm. | “When Hurricane Charley passed directly over Charlotte Harbor with 140 mph winds, we had a unique opportunity to document both the acoustic energy of the storm and to find out if the storm had an effect on the calling behavior of fish,” said Mann.According to Mann and Locascio, many male fish produce specific courtship sounds. They have identified species-specific sounds using 10 hydrophones from the Long-Term Acoustic Recording System (LARS). LARS, custom built at CMS, uses a system of recording devices anchored just off the bottom of the shallow waters of Charlotte Harbor. The hydrophones record underwater sounds for ten seconds every 10 minutes for up to 50 days.“The loudest low frequency sound from the storm sounds were recorded at 4 p.m. when Charley’s eye was in the mouth of Charlotte Harbor,” said Locascio, adding they had expected the fish love songs to shut down during the storm. “Sound from the hurricane was minimal an hour and a half later, at which time the first fish calls were recorded.”They recorded the hurricane’s low frequency noise from zero to 100 hertz (Hz) while the higher pitched fish spawning songs were recorded at 500-600 Hz. Their data, recorded for three nights after the hurricane, showed an increase in fish calling with maximized sound levels and a start time more than two hours earlier than nights prior to the storm.“We found no immediate negative storm impact on chorusing fish populations,” explained Mann. “It is possible increased fresh water flow into the harbor from hurricane rains could impair chorusing and spawning.”Among the recordings were the sand sea trout’s unique call, which typically begins its courtship calls about dusk and ends a few hours later and sounds like a “double-pulse” purring while the fury of Charley sounded like a dull “shhhhhhh.” They used the sounds to generate a visual “spectogram” of the data.“Nightly chorusing events started at about 7:30 p.m. and lasted nearly seven hours,” said Locascio.Mann and Locascio recently presented the data recorded during Hurricane Charley at a conference at the Mote Marine Laboratory in Sarasota. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
November 1, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/10/041030221334.htm | Hurricane Damage Creates Pecan Shortage | St. Paul, Minn. (October 28, 2004) - Rich pecan pie is a long-time favorite dessert of the holiday season. But this year, the amount of pecans harvested will be dramatically down due to substantial damage from the 2004 hurricanes, say plant health specialists with The American Phytopathological Society (APS). | Pecan growers in Georgia and Alabama, two of the primary pecan growing areas were already expecting a light production year due to reduced nut set on many cultivars, said Tim Brenneman, APS member and plant pathologist with the University of Georgia. "But then the hurricanes came late in the growing season and caused tremendous damage to pecan crops in these two states," he said.Georgia, which normally produces 120 million pounds of pecans annually, lost an estimated 50 percent of its already reduced pecan crop. Alabama, which took a direct hit from Hurricane Ivan, lost 80 percent of its total crop. Damage to the pecan trees include pecans blown prematurely from the limbs, twisted limbs and limb breakage, as well as severe tree leaning and loss of entire trees. Approximately 15-20 percent of all pecan trees in the state of Alabama were destroyed. "We aren't yet certain of the full effect the damage has had on the remaining trees," said Brenneman. "There's evidence that some trees may not fully recover," he said. Many farmers have tried to save the injured trees by using tractors to pull the trees straight and remove damaged limbs.Pecan trees take many years to get into full production. The stress on damaged trees may affect pecan production for years to come. "Next year's crop is dependent on the health of the trees when they go into winter," said Brenneman.Another problem brought on by the hurricanes is increased pecan disease. One disease that normally doesn't appear, Phytophthora shuck and kernel rot, has appeared in the middle of the Georgia pecan growing area. The disease, caused by a fungus-like organism, occurs when there is an extended period of cool, wet weather much like the weather caused by the hurricanes. The disease causes the kernel to discolor and rot, rendering it inedible. "The appearance of this disease has really compounded the situation," said Brenneman. Plant health specialists are working with growers to control the outbreak of this disease.###The American Phytopathological Society (APS) is a non-profit, professional scientific organization. The research of the organization's 5,000 worldwide members advances the understanding of the science of plant pathology and its application to plant health. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
October 21, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/10/041021083407.htm | Better Analyses Of Wind, Damage Models Would Help Insurers Anticipate Hurricane Costs | Insurance companies could better anticipate their annual costs in hurricane claims if they used more accurate models of storm winds and the severity of damage they will likely cause, a University of Central Florida professor and his Georgia colleague concluded. |
The models reviewed by Johnson and Watson do not forecast the paths of particular storms. They simulate the damage caused by storms based on storm tracks, which usually are provided by the National Hurricane Center. To develop projections for insurance companies’ losses, the models consider data such as historical storm tracks, the percentages of concrete, wood-frame and mobile homes in an area and projected wind speeds.The researchers suggested that creating a centralized database of wind speeds during storms and requiring insurance companies to divulge more information about the reports of damage they receive and the claims they pay would help to make the models more accurate. The insurance company models also did not consider some factors, such as soil moisture and the possibility of leftover debris from prior hurricanes, which can dramatically influence how much damage storms inflict.Before Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992, insurance companies generally relied on analyses of their losses during prior years to set premiums and deductibles. The catastrophic damage caused by Hurricane Andrew prompted insurance companies to base decisions on models that predict wind speed, how winds may be slowed by structures or different terrains and the estimated damage those winds would cause.Many of the models used by companies are private and therefore could not be directly reviewed by Johnson and Watson. However, the publicly available models and data provided by private modelers to a Florida commission showed dramatic differences in estimates of wind speeds and damage, especially for inland areas. “This range (in the models’ results) presents a major problem for regulators, government officials and consumers, as the choice of model could result in premiums differing by several hundred dollars a year for a typical home,” the researchers wrote in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society article.In response to residents’ concerns about hurricane premiums and deductibles, Florida legislators likely will consider changes to some of the state’s policies regarding hurricane insurance. Legislators do not set insurance rates, but they can pass laws regulating them. Johnson and Watson do not recommend any specific legislation regarding how states regulate insurance rates. However, they said they can help legislators assess how changes to premium or deductible structures would affect homeowners and insurance companies. “Those tests are essential when you’re dealing with insurance, because you’re experimenting with people’s lives and the economic livelihood of insurance companies,” Watson said. The two researchers run a Web site, Johnson and Watson are consultants to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology, which reviews and accepts public and private hurricane models. The analyses that will be reported in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society were funded by the states of North Carolina and Florida, the Organization of American States and the U.S. Agency for International Development. Data from Florida was used in that study, and the general conclusions are applicable throughout the United States. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
September 15, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/09/040915104838.htm | Frances, Ivan Contribute To Hurricane Studies | Seen through the eyes of the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer aboard NASA's Terra satellite, the menacing clouds of Hurricanes Frances and Ivan provide a wealth of information that can help improve hurricane forecasts. | The ability of forecasters to predict the intensity and amount of rainfall associated with hurricanes still requires improvement, particularly on the 24- to 48-hour timescales vital for disaster planning. Scientists need to better understand the complex interactions that lead to hurricane intensification and dissipation, and the various physical processes that affect hurricane intensity and rainfall distributions. Because uncertainties in representing hurricane cloud processes still exist, it is vital that model findings be evaluated against actual hurricane observations whenever possible. Two-dimensional maps of cloud heights such as those provided by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer offer an unprecedented opportunity for comparing simulated cloud fields against actual hurricane observations. The newly released images of Hurricanes Frances and Ivan were acquired Sept. 4 and Sept. 5, 2004, respectively, when Frances' eye sat just off the coast of eastern Florida and Ivan was heading toward the central and western Caribbean. They are available at: The left-hand panel in each image pair is a natural-color view from the instrument's nadir camera. The right-hand panels are computer-generated cloud-top height retrievals produced by comparing the features of images acquired at different view angles. When these images were acquired, clouds within Frances and Ivan had attained altitudes of 15 and 16 kilometers (9.3 and 9.9 miles) above sea level, respectively. The instrument is one of several Earth-observing experiments aboard Terra, launched in December 1999. The instrument acquires images of Earth at nine angles simultaneously, using nine separate cameras pointed forward, downward and backward along its flight path. It observes the daylit Earth continuously and every 9 days views the entire globe between 82 degrees north and 82 degrees south latitude. It was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. More information about the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer is available at: | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
September 14, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/09/040914091847.htm | USGS Studies Hurricane Ivan’s Potential Impacts To Florida’s West Coast Islands | Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey are closely watching the long, thin barrier islands that comprise the Gulf of Mexico coast of west Florida as Hurricane Ivan approaches. These islands are particularly vulnerable to storm surge and coastal change during hurricanes because of their low elevation. New elevation maps show just how vulnerable. | “If Hurricane Ivan comes ashore on west Florida’s barrier islands as a major hurricane, Category 3 or stronger, most of the coast has the potential to be inundated by storm surge under the south eye wall at landfall,” said Abby Sallenger, a USGS oceanographer. The USGS and NASA recently surveyed these islands using airborne laser mapping, providing for the first time detailed elevation maps of the island’s ‘first line of defense.’ An example of the ‘first line of defense’ would be a sand dune protecting an ocean front cottage or road. The average Florida west coast ‘first line of defense’ elevation is about 6 feet -- less than half the 13-foot average of the Florida east coast where Hurricane Frances made landfall a week ago. USGS scientists have prepared maps showing the proportion of the ‘first line of defense’ that would be inundated by worst-case scenario storm surge associated with Categories 1 through 5 hurricanes. See: The storm-surge elevations (simulated by NOAA) represent the maximum surge that results along the open coast from hurricanes of a given category, approaching from different directions, and at different speeds. On Florida’s west coast barrier islands, the maximum surge will typically occur to the south of landfall under the eye wall and decreases in elevation with distance away from the eye wall. “Where the storm surge exceeds the elevation of the dunes, currents will flow across the barrier islands potentially driving massive quantities of sand landward,” Sallenger said. “In some cases where barrier islands are low and narrow, the currents will carve new inlets like what happened in 2003 on the Outer Banks of North Carolina during Hurricane Isabel and this year on North Captiva Island, Fla., during Hurricane Charley.” The USGS serves the nation by providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
September 10, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/09/040910080622.htm | Engineers Model Effects Of Hurricane Force Winds On Structures | Blacksburg, Va. -- As the rains from the downgraded Hurricane Frances move northward while the eastern U.S. continues to watch Hurricane Ivan's approach, the destruction from the heavy winds and rains is mounting into the billions of dollars. | In Florida alone, initial estimates for losses caused by Frances were between $2 and 4 billion following the projected $7.4 billion in insured damages from Hurricane Charley, according to Reuters News Service. In most cases, low-rise buildings, including residential, institutional, and commercial structures are the most vulnerable and carry the brunt of the damage and losses from extreme wind. "Engineers have the ability to theoretically understand and simulate how a storm will impact a structure," said Muhammad Hajj, professor of engineering science and mechanics at Virginia Tech. "This ability, however, needs to be complemented with computational power such as the supercomputing system developed at Virginia Tech to obtain reliable values for wind loads," he said. Hajj and his Virginia Tech colleagues, Professors Henry Tieleman and Saab Ragab in Engineering Science and Mechanics, and Finley Charney in Civil and Environmental Engineering, are a part of the Hurricane Loss Reduction Consortium: Wind and Structural Engineering Initiative. The consortium members are Virginia Tech, Clemson University, University of Florida and the Johns Hopkins University. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) funded this consortium. Although the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) maintains minimum building codes, and builders follow these codes "as a first basis," Hajj said, "there is still a wide fluctuation in the standards used." Hajj also notes that complex terrains of mountainous areas (as in the Carolinas, Virginia and some of the Caribbean Islands) create excessive turbulence that may cause increased wind loads." In addition to differences in terrain, existing codes do not address how other factors contribute to damage to low-rise buildings. "As wind impacts a structure, different parameters such as duration of extreme loads, connector types, missing connectors, shoddy workmanship, and below-standard materials will determine the extent of damage," Hajj said. He and his colleagues are working on modeling these effects as well. The researchers of the Hurricane Loss Reduction Consortium have instrumented homes along the Florida coast that were subjected to the winds of various storms such as Tropical Storm Isodore and Hurricanes Bonnie, Dennis and Floyd. They have analyzed these results and made preliminary comparisons to wind tunnel results. "The wind tunnel simulations are indeed capable of reproducing average values of wind loads, but appreciable differences may arise when considering local values," the team members from Virginia Tech explained in a progress report to NIST. As the consortium continues its work, its long-term objective is to provide a full computational platform to calculate wind loads and structural capacities of low-rise buildings and to incorporate the findings into regional and national codes. Ultimately, the hope is to appreciably reduce damage and increase safety. At Virginia Tech, the efforts are also a part of the recently established Center of Extreme Load Effects on Structures under Virginia Tech's Institute for Critical Technology and Applied Science initiative. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
September 6, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/09/040906083631.htm | Taking Apart A Hurricane: Multi-sensor Envisat Sees Through Frances | Hurricanes are one of those forces of nature that can only fully be captured by satellite imagery. For Hurricane Frances, currently thundering towards the United States coast, ESA's Envisat is going one better, peering through the hurricane from top to bottom, even helping to 'see' under the waves to map hidden forces powering the storm. | As its 235-km-per-hour winds passed the Bahamas, Frances was heading for landfall on the Florida coast some time on Saturday, and three quarters of a million Americans are in the process of evacuating their homes. To wait and watch for Frances might be suicidal for human beings, but space-based observers such as Envisat observe its passage without danger."Because of Envisat's multi-sensor capability, we can slice right through the hurricane with just a single satellite," explained José Achache, ESA Director of Earth Observation Programmes. "Effectively Frances is taken apart for meteorologists to study. The data returned by Envisat includes cloud structure and height at the top of the hurricane, wind and wave fields at the bottom, sea surface temperature and even sea height anomalies indicative of upper ocean thermal conditions that influence its intensity." Important processes occur at a range of altitudes and locations throughout a hurricane - basically a large powerful storm centred around a zone of extreme low pressure. Strong low-level surface winds and bands of intense precipitation combine with strong updrafts and outflows of moist air at higher altitudes, with energy released as rainy thunderstorms. Until now, the only reliable source of such high-resolution measurements at different altitudes was from aircraft flown directly through the hurricane. Envisat carries both optical and radar instruments, enabling researchers to observe high-atmosphere cloud structure and pressure in the visible and infrared spectrum, while at around the same time using radar backscatter to measure roughness of the sea surface and so derive the wind fields just over it. Those winds converging on the low-pressure eye of the storm are what ultimately determine the spiralling cloud patterns that are characteristic of a hurricane. Florida-based scientists have begun to take advantage of this unique single-spacecraft combination of instruments – the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) and Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) – as hurricane season gets into full swing. The University of Miami's Centre for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing (CSTARS) ground station has an agreement to acquire ASAR and MERIS data direct from Envisat, with ERS-2 wind scatterometer data set to follow in the near future. Their access to Envisat data has come just as the second hurricane in less than a month is heading towards the Florida coast. "With MERIS and ASAR, Envisat can image both the ocean and atmosphere pretty much simultaneously, which is a very useful capability during hurricane season," said Hans Graber, Professor of Applied Marine Physics at the University of Miami and Co-Director of CSTARS. While MERIS returns detail on the swirling clouds at the top of the hurricane, ASAR pierces right through the clouds to show the wind-wracked face of the sea beneath the storm. "Specifically in terms of Frances, the eye of the hurricane seems to be rolling a lot right now from the top of the clouds, looking quite unstable, the information from an ASAR image should help localise its size and position on the ocean," Graber said. "And wind fields around the eye wall can be derived from ASAR data – right now all we have to go on are measurements from the hurricane hunter planes that fly right through the storm." Simultaneous MERIS and ASAR acquisitions are planned for Friday by CSTARS, even as the storm comes closer to predicted landfall the following morning. "Our current activity is along the lines of a shakedown – we're investigating how this can be used," added Graber. "Our final goal is to get this working on an operational basis during hurricane season. We have a deal to use radar data from the Canadian Space Agency, and also have access to other satellite resources for high temporal coverage of the affected region. "The potential is there to extract a large amount of useful information which can help the US National Hurricane Center increase the accuracy of their hurricane predictions and reduce danger to the public." Another instrument aboard Envisat is being used to take the temperature of Frances, both down at the surface of the ocean and at the heights of its towering clouds. Water temperatures are the main underlying energy reservoir powering Frances; together with the correct atmospheric conditions, they need to exceed 26ºC in order to form and maintain a tropical cyclone. Envisat's Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) works like a space-based thermometer, acquiring the temperature of the sea surface down to a fraction of a degree. Meanwhile AATSR also returns useful atmospheric data, measuring the temperature of the top of hurricane clouds – the higher into the atmosphere they extend, the colder they are - and also deriving their ice content. "We produced a combined AATSR sea surface temperature and cloud top temperature image, which shows the sea surface temperature to be as high as 29ºC in the area," remarked Carsten Brockmann of Brockmann Consult, a German company processing both MERIS and AATSR hurricane imagery. "This two-sensor combination gives meteorologists a lot of information to help them understand the dynamics of the hurricane and better predict its development." AATSR information can be correlated with MERIS data cloud height and development to gain a good estimate of the hurricane's precipitation potential, and improve understanding of how this relates to its overall intensity. Condensation of water vapour releases latent heat, which warms the vicinity of the hurricane eye. This in turn evaporates more surface water and feeds the heat engine powering the hurricane. The thermal energy of warm water, which partly powers a hurricane, is known as tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP). Oceanic features, such as warm core rings, eddies, and the Gulf Stream, represent a source of enhanced heat fluxes to the atmosphere that may cause the strengthening of tropical cyclones, such as hurricanes. Warm waters may extend to at least 100 meters beneath the surface in many of these oceanic features, representing waters of very high heat content. Several hurricanes have intensified when their tracks pass over eddies or other masses of warm water with high TCHP values. For example, in 1995 Hurricane Opal suddenly intensified in the Gulf of Mexico after passing over a warm ring with TCHP values of up to six times the threshold to sustain a tropical cyclone. Previously, researchers used sea surface temperature alone to estimate the role of the upper ocean thermal conditions on hurricane intensification. The problem with this is that the sea surface temperature measured by AATSR or comparable satellite instruments may not by themselves show these warm upper ocean features, particularly during summer months in tropical regions. In the past these upper ocean features have gone unseen by satellite-based temperature sensors because they are effectively camouflaged beneath a very shallow and stable layer of warmer water. Tropical cyclone wind forces easily erode this thin upper layer by mixing the upper waters to depths that may go down to 100 meters, giving the tropical cyclones the potential to absorb ocean thermal energy, if conditions are appropriate. Now, estimates of TCHP based on satellite observations of sea surface temperature and sea surface height can detect these features. Researcher Gustavo Goni, Joaquin Trinanes and Peter Black of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML) are working on this original methodology to detect these warm water masses and to compute their tropical cyclone heat potential values using several satellite sensors including one on Envisat. "These water features are critical for identifying regions of high TCHP values that may potentially contribute to the intensification of a hurricane”, Goni explained. "These regions of high TCHP values provide the hurricanes with the opportunity to absorb much more thermal energy if overall conditions are right. My research is taking advantage of the fact that these warm water masses cause an upward elevation in ocean height of up to 30 cm. Such sea height anomalies can then be mapped with space-based radar altimeter data." Radar altimeters, such as the Radar Altimeter-2 instrument on Envisat, fire hundreds of radar pulses down to Earth every second, and by timing their return down the nanosecond can measure sea height to a maximum accuracy of two centimetres from hundreds of kilometres above the Earth. The US Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) combines Envisat RA-2 data with data from similar radar altimeters aboard the Jason-1 and GFO satellites to enhance overall accuracy and spatial and temporal coverage, forming the source for altimetry products which, in turn, form the basis for NOAA/AOML-produced maps of tropical cyclone heat potential depicting the upper ocean thermal conditions, shown here overlaid against Hurricane Frances' track so far. " At this time I use this product only for research purposes, providing an enhanced understanding of the life of a hurricane. However, analogous products are being produced and used operationally for forecasting by the National Hurricane Center", Goni concluded. Altimetry-based wind speed and wave height products are also distributed by the French firm Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS), and can reveal sea surface features related to the presence of hurricanes. Launched in March 2002, ESA's Envisat satellite is an extremely powerful means of monitoring the state of our world and the impact of human activities upon it. Envisat carries ten sophisticated instruments to observe and monitor the Earth's atmosphere, land, oceans and ice caps, maintaining continuity with the Agency's ERS missions started in 1991. After two and a half years in orbit, more than 700 scientists from 50 countries are about to meet at a special symposium in Salzburg in Austria to review and discuss early results from the satellites, and present their own research activities based on Envisat data. Starting on Monday, the Envisat Symposium will address almost all fields of Earth science, including atmospheric chemistry, coastal studies, radar and interferometry, winds and waves, vegetation and agriculture, landslides, natural risks, air pollution, ocean colour, oil spills and ice. There are over 650 papers being presented at the Symposium, selected by peer review. Presentations will include results on the Prestige oil spill, last year's forest fires in Portugal, the Elbe flooding in 2002, the evolution of the Antarctic ozone hole, the Bam earthquake and pollution in Europe. Numerous demonstrations are planned during the week in the ESA Exhibit area. An industrial consortium exhibit on the joint ESA-European Commission Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) initiative is also planned. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
August 18, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/08/040818090100.htm | TRMM Sees Rain From Hurricanes Fall Around The World | Since rain and freshwater flooding are the number one causes of death from hurricanes in the United States over the last 30 years, better understanding of these storms is vital for insuring public safety. A recent study funded by NASA and the National Science Foundation offers insight into patterns of rainfall from tropical storms and hurricanes around the world. | Researchers at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory's Hurricane Research Division, Miami, used data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite to show how rain falls at different rates in different areas of a storm. The results were published in the July issue of the journal Monthly Weather Review.The results are already being used in a model developed at the Hurricane Research Division to estimate rainfall accumulation related to tropical cyclones. The findings are important because they may help in the development of better forecasts.The TRMM satellite offers the best measurements of how and where rain falls around tropical cyclones. This is because its orbit is low to the Earth, allowing more detailed information on storms, and it was designed to cover the tropics.Tropical cyclones consist of winds rotating around low-pressure centers in the tropics that can develop into everything from tropical storms to Category 5 hurricanes.From 1998 through 2000, TRMM observed 260 tropical cyclones in six major ocean basins. Researchers found that the rainfall intensity and where the heaviest rains fell varied depending on a storm's wind speeds, its location and the environment of each basin.Scientists looked at three types of tropical cyclones, based on a standard system for classifying these storms. Tropical storms have wind speeds of less than 73 miles per hour (mph). Category 1 and 2 hurricanes blow with winds of 74 to 110 mph, and Category 3 to 5 hurricanes' winds range above 110 mph."This study is important because we know very little about the rainfall distribution in tropical cyclones," said lead author of the study, Manuel Lonfat, a University of Miami researcher. "It revolutionizes our understanding of the distribution of rain in tropical cyclones," he added. Lonfat is a NASA Earth System Science Fellowship recipient."More than 50 percent of deaths in the U.S. from tropical cyclones over the last 30 years are related to freshwater flooding. So this is currently a very large problem for the forecasting community," Lonfat said.When all storms were averaged together the most intense rainfall occurred within 50 kilometers (about 31 miles) of a storm's center, with evidence of very large rain rates as far as 300 to 400 kilometers (about 186 to 250 miles) from the center.When all storms were averaged and analyzed basin by basin, storms in the North Indian basin were the wettest, and East-central Pacific storms were the driest. The Atlantic and West Pacific storms showed similar rain rates: this at first surprised the researchers since Western Pacific storms tend to be bigger and were presumed to be wetter. Researchers also found that the storms were not symmetric, meaning that rain fell at different rates in different areas of a storm. If a round storm were divided into four equal parts through the center, called quadrants, in general it was found that the heaviest rainfall occurred in one of the front quadrants. However, the heaviest rainfall shifted from the front-left to the front-right quadrant as a tropical cyclone's intensity increased. Tropical storms were less symmetric, while stronger hurricanes had a more symmetric inner core. In the Southern Hemisphere, the heaviest rain occurred to the front-left of the storm's path, while in the Northern Hemisphere the heaviest rainfall peaked in the front-right quadrant.Normally, the only way to accurately measure rain falling from a hurricane is when it gets close enough to the coast to be picked up by National Weather Service radars, or by rain gages. Since TRMM is space-based, researchers can assess the rainfall over vast tracts of ocean, where these storms spend most of their lives. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
August 9, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/08/040809095825.htm | NASA Extends TRMM Operations Through 2004 Hurricane Season | NASA will extend operation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) through the end of 2004, in light of a recent request from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The extension, to be undertaken jointly with NASA's TRMM partner, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), will provide data during another storm season in the U.S. and Asia. | TRMM has yielded significant scientific research data over the last seven years to users around the globe. In addition, TRMM data has aided NOAA, other government agencies, and other users in their operational work of monitoring and predicting rainfall and storms, as well as in storm research. Launched in 1997, TRMM was originally designed as a three-year research mission. Following four years of extending TRMM, NASA and JAXA recently announced a decision to decommission TRMM, and proceed with a safe, controlled deorbit. Options for safe re-entry become increasingly limited the longer TRMM is operated, as it is already more than 3 years beyond design life. "NASA is committed to working with our partner agencies to help them carry out their mission. We have decided to extend TRMM through this year's hurricane season in our effort to aid NOAA in capturing another full season of storm data," said Dr. Ghassem Asrar, Deputy Associate Administrator of NASA's Science Mission Directorate. "The United States is a leader in Earth remote sensing, and NASA is proud of our role in building that leadership. Our work in partnership with NOAA and international partners such as JAXA is an important part of the world's scientific research on global precipitation and weather. TRMM has been a valuable part of that legacy and we look to our follow-on missions to continue to reap great public benefit," he added.TRMM is the first satellite to measure rainfall over the global tropics, allowing scientists to study the transfer of water and energy among the global atmosphere and ocean surface that form the faster portions of the Earth's climate system. Because TRMM's radar enables it to "see through" clouds, it allows weather researchers to make the equivalent of a CAT-scan of hurricanes and helps weather forecasters to use TRMM data to improve prediction of severe storms. "TRMM has proven helpful in complementing the other satellite data used by NOAA's National Weather Service in its operations," said Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, Director of NOAA's National Weather Service.JAXA welcomes and supports the decision to extend TRMM. The extension will be of benefit to the worldwide science and research communities. NASA and JAXA look forward to continuing their close collaboration beyond TRMM through establishment of a new advanced capability for the measurement of precipitation globally with the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM). GPM will use an extensive ground validation network to further improve the accuracy of its measurements compared to those made by TRMM.NASA and NOAA have asked the National Academy of Sciences to convene a workshop next month to advise NASA and NOAA on the best use of TRMM's remaining spacecraft life; the overall risks and benefits of the TRMM mission extension options; the advisability of transfer of operational responsibility for TRMM to NOAA; any requirement for a follow-on operational satellite to provide comparable TRMM data; and optimal use of GPM, a follow-on research spacecraft to TRMM, planned for launch by the end of the decade. "It's important to note that we are able to extend TRMM for this brief period and are vigilant in maintaining our requirement for a safe, controlled re-entry and deorbit of the spacecraft," said Asrar. "We also welcome the opportunity to receive advice from the National Academy of Sciences next month on the best use of TRMM's remaining spacecraft life, TRMM re-entry risk, and the best use of our upcoming next-generation research spacecraft, GPM," he addedNASA and NOAA will work with the National Academy of Sciences to share with the public outcomes from next month's workshop.For more information about TRMM on the Internet, visit: | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
July 20, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/07/040720091214.htm | NASA To Decommission Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission | NASA will decommission the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) later this year. A highly successful scientific research mission, TRMM has provided data used worldwide in the monitoring and forecasting of hazardous weather on a demonstration basis. Originally intended to be a three-year mission when launched in 1997, TRMM is now in its seventh year of operation having completed all of its research and technology objectives four years ago. The extension of mission operations for nearly four additional years was made possible through NASA's efficient management of available resources, technical innovations, and substantial additional funding. | "TRMM has been an outstanding example of scientific success and U.S.-Japanese collaboration in conducting Earth observations from space. The unique TRMM precipitation observations have led to new knowledge concerning the Earth's hydrological cycle and its variation," said NASA's Associate Administrator for Earth Science Dr. Ghassem Asrar. "We now look forward to continued cooperation with our Japanese partners on the Global Precipitation Measurement mission, that will build on the TRMM legacy," he added.TRMM is the first mission dedicated to measuring tropical and subtropical rainfall through microwave and visible infrared sensors, including the first spaceborne rain radar. The Precipitation Radar aboard TRMM is the first rain radar ever to be launched into space. It measures precipitation distributions over both land and sea. TRMM has exceeded expectations for accuracy and resolution and has given unprecedented insights into rainfall producing cloud systems over tropical land masses and oceans.In 1998 TRMM observed Hurricane Bonnie and captured for the first time "sky scrapper" storm clouds towering some 59,000 feet above the ocean - an event scientists believe may have represented a precursor to storm intensification.In August 2001, TRMM was boosted from an altitude of 350 km to a higher 402 km orbit to extend its life. This maneuver successfully reduced atmospheric drag on the spacecraft during a period of high solar activity and increased TRMM's life by two years while maintaining the high quality of its scientific observations. NASA also developed a technique to extend TRMM's life by using atmospheric drag, rather than fuel, to lower the spacecraft's altitude in the early stages of the controlled de-orbit process. This scenario has permitted TRMM to continue its normal operations since November 2003.NASA and the Japanese Space Program (JAXA) will continue close collaboration by establishing a new advanced capability for the measurement of precipitation globally with the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (GPM). The partnership will launch GPM's Core Satellite by the end of the decade. This complex and pioneering international satellite constellation is a prototype for the comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained Earth observation system envisioned by the international Group on Earth Observations (GEO) framework. The GPM main satellite is planned to carry advanced, dual-frequency radar that will exceed the capabilities of TRMM's radar. This radar will be capable of making measurements of light rain and frozen precipitation present in higher latitudes in addition to the heavier rain present in the tropics.In addition, GPM will comprise an international constellation of satellites to measure precipitation globally approximately every three hours; TRMM is limited to conducting less frequent observations at tropical latitudes. GPM will use an extensive ground validation network to further improve the accuracy of its measurements compared to those made by TRMM. For more information about GPM on the Internet, visit: | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
July 1, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/07/040701085909.htm | Researchers Examine 100+ Years Of Hurricane Hits Along East Coast | Three Louisiana State University researchers have examined more than 100 years of data on hurricane strikes from the coast of Texas to New England and they've found that, historically, the "hottest" region for hits is South Florida, followed by North Carolina and the Northern Gulf Coast, from East Texas to the Florida panhandle. Early results from their research also reveal certain trends, such as a major decline in activity for the South Florida coast and a marked increase in activity for North Carolina, particularly in the Cape Hatteras region. LSU Assistant Professor of Geography and Anthropology Barry Keim, LSU Professor Emeritus Bob Muller and James P. Morgan Distinguished Professor Greg Stone, examined 45 points along the Gulf and East Coasts, from South Padre Island, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. Keim said that storm frequency in the region has been the subject of previous research, but there has been no large-scale examination of hurricane strike trends and how they vary geographically. "Data for the Northern Gulf Coast showed high frequencies, but no trends whatsoever," said Keim. "However, of the two 'hot spots' on the East Coast, South Florida has seen a dramatic decline in activity, while North Carolina has seen a dramatic increase since 1900." Keim explained that, despite major strikes like Hurricane Andrew, the last 50 years have been relatively benign to the South Florida coast, with fewer major storms hitting the area directly. Despite the trend, Keim said things could easily change and South Florida could once again become the primary "hot spot" for strikes. "When you look at the frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes, Louisiana ranks right up there with Key West, Fla., – each having 36 hits between 1900 and 2000," said Muller. According to Stone, director of LSU's Coastal Studies Institute, this is particularly problematic for Louisiana, given the rapid coastal land loss that the state is experiencing, and the increased vulnerability of the coast to storm surge and storm wave damage. "These data show a definite clustering of storms around certain parts of the country that could have very important societal implications," said Stone. "For example, despite no long-term trend in Northern Florida, frequencies have been high since 1994, which has resulted in dramatic beach erosion and the subsequent need for widespread beach nourishment. Such projects have cost taxpayers tens of millions of dollars." The researchers plan to finalize their data and issue a complete report on it in the coming months. For more information, visit the LOSC Web site at | null | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
June 21, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/06/040621074822.htm | NASA Data Shows Hurricanes Help Plants Bloom In 'Ocean Deserts' | Whenever a hurricane races across the Atlantic Ocean, chances are phytoplankton will bloom behind it. According to a new study using NASA satellite data, these phytoplankton blooms may also affect the Earth's climate and carbon cycle. | Dr. Steven Babin, a researcher at the Johns Hopkins University in Applied Physics Lab in Laurel, Maryland studied 13 North Atlantic hurricanes between 1998 and 2001. Ocean color data from the SeaWiFS instrument on the SeaStar satellite were used to analyze levels of chlorophyll, the green pigment in plants. The satellite images showed tiny microscopic ocean plants, called phytoplankton, bloomed following the storms. "Some parts of the ocean are like deserts, because there isn't enough food for many plants to grow. A hurricane's high winds stir up the ocean waters and help bring nutrients and phytoplankton to the surface, where they get more sunlight, allowing the plants to bloom," Babin said. Previous research has relied largely on sporadic, incomplete data from ships to understand how and when near-surface phytoplankton bloom. "This effect of hurricanes in ocean deserts has not been seen before. We believe it is the first documented satellite observation of this phenomenon in the wake of hurricanes," Babin noted. "Because 1998 was the first complete Atlantic hurricane season observed by this instrument, we first noticed this effect in late 1998 after looking at hurricane Bonnie," Babin said. The study found the physical make-up of a storm, including its size, strength and forward speed, is directly related to the amount of phytoplankton that blooms. Bigger storms appear to cause larger phytoplankton blooms. An increased amount of phytoplankton should have more chlorophyll, which satellite sensors can see. Hurricane-induced upwelling, the rising of cooler nutrient-rich water to the ocean surface, is also critical in phytoplankton growth. For two to three weeks following almost every storm, the satellite data showed phytoplankton growth. Babin and his colleagues believe it was stimulated by the addition of nutrients brought up to the surface. Whenever the quantity of plants increases or decreases, it affects the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. As phytoplankton grow, they absorb carbon dioxide, a heat-trapping greenhouse gas. The gas is carried to the ocean floor as a carbon form when the tiny plants die. This enables atmospheric carbon to get into the deep ocean. It is one of several natural processes that contribute to Earth's carbon cycle. By stimulating these phytoplankton blooms, hurricanes can affect the ecology of the upper ocean. Phytoplankton is at the bottom of the food chain. The factors that influence their growth also directly affect the animals and organisms that feed on them. In addition, since climate-related phenomena like El Niño may change the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, storm-induced biological activity may have even greater contributions to future climate change. Scientists are still trying to determine how much carbon dioxide might be removed from such a process. "Better knowledge of the carbon cycle will improve our understanding of global ecology and how climate change might affect us," Babin said. The research appeared as a paper in a recent issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. Study co-authors include J.A. Carton, University of Maryland, College Park, Md.; T.D. Dickey, Ocean Physics Laboratory, University of California, Santa Barbara, Calif.; and J.D. Wiggert, Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Va. NASA's Earth Science Enterprise funded part of the research. The Enterprise is dedicated to understanding the Earth as an integrated system and applying Earth System Science to improve climate, weather, and natural hazard prediction using the unique vantage point of space. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
June 15, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/06/040615075251.htm | Ecosystem Bounces Back From Hurricanes | After receiving the brunt of powerful hurricanes in 1996 and 1999, the Neuse River and Estuary and western Pamlico Sound in eastern North Carolina appear to have suffered few long-term ill effects from the storms, and have actually benefited ecologically in some ways from the storms' scouring effects. | Those are the findings of a team of North Carolina State University scientists and collaborators from various North Carolina universities and government agencies. Dr. JoAnn Burkholder, NC State professor of botany and director of the Center for Applied Aquatic Ecology, says the research shows that water quality, numbers and health of most of the area's shellfish and finfish, and the overall health of the surveyed water systems – though initially acutely affected by storms, especially Hurricane Fran in 1996 – have over the long run returned to normal, suggesting the resilience of estuarine systems such as the Neuse and Pamlico Sound. Some harmful organisms that took hold before the storms are now in abeyance, suggesting the storms beneficially flushed the areas studied. The one major estuary dweller that has been slow to recover is the blue crab, the researchers say, although its numbers are now creeping back toward average abundances. The research is published online this week (June 14) in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (U.S.A.). After the storms, predictions abounded that Pamlico Sound, of the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System – the largest lagoonal estuary in the United States – would be devastated by the cumulative effects of Hurricane Fran in 1996 and Hurricanes Dennis, Floyd and Irene in 1999. But the longer-term data presented in this study show the remarkable recovery and resilience of the water quality and the finfish and shellfish inhabitants. The paper shows that although less water volume was delivered by Hurricane Fran, large amounts of fish kills were reported due to oxygen depletion and high concentrations of contaminants like nitrogen, phosphorus and fecal bacteria. After the 1999 hurricane season, however, contaminant loads were about the same as in 1996, but no major fish kills were reported due to the enormous amount of flooding that diluted the pollution, Burkholder says. Diminished levels of dissolved oxygen were documented after both storms. But those levels returned to normal shortly after the storms, the research shows. Burkholder added that the storms displaced undesirable organisms – like the toxic alga Pfiesteria, linked to massive fish kills in the 1990s – to areas of the estuary that are less conducive for growth. Pfiesteria populations have shown minimal recovery. The paper also states that commercial catch numbers of shrimp or bivalve molluscs such as clams and scallops did not suffer long-term effects from the storms. The one species affected negatively for a longer period of time by the storms was the blue crab, the paper asserts. Reductions in the number of blue crabs can be attributed, says Dr. David Eggleston, professor of marine science at NC State and co-author of the paper, to the relationship between hurricane floodwaters, the crabs' migration response to the floodwaters and the subsequent overfishing of the mass-migrating crabs. "We feel the historically low abundances of blue crabs in 2000 and 2001 are a direct result of the interactions between floodwaters and overfishing," Eggleston said. "The blue crabs migrated en masse, which concentrated them and made them more vulnerable to fishing." Another piece of the puzzle involved the areas where the blue crabs colonize, Eggleston says. Floodwaters from the rivers impeded the movement of post-larval stages of the blue crab from seawater inlets to their nursery habitats along the western shore of Pamlico Sound. Eggleston says, though, that his new stock assessments of the blue crabs will shed further light on its status in Pamlico Sound. "The overall story we see is of estuarine resilience to impacts from these types of major storms," Burkholder said. "The negative predictions about long-term devastation of water quality and fisheries, made right after the storms, were not borne out." Funding for the study was provided by the Environmental Protection Agency, the N.C. General Assembly, the National Science Foundation and N.C. Sea Grant. Note to editors: An abstract of the paper follows. "Comparative Impacts of Two Major Hurricane Seasons on the Neuse River and Western Pamlico Sound Ecosystems"Authors: JoAnn Burkholder, David Eggleston, Howard Glasgow, Cavell Brownie, Robert Reed, Gerald Janowitz, Greg Melia, Carol Kinder, Nora Deamer and Jeffrey Springer, North Carolina State University; Martin Posey and Troy Alphin, University of North Carolina-Wilmington; Reide Corbett, East Carolina University; David Toms, of NC State at the time of the study, now at the N.C. Department of Environment and Natural Resources Division of Water Quality Published: The week of Monday, June 14, 2004, in the online version of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (U.S.A.) Abstract: Ecosystem-level impacts of two hurricane seasons were compared several years after the storms in the largest lagoonal estuary in the United States, the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System. A segmented linear regression flow model was developed to compare mass-water transport and nutrient loadings to a major artery, the Neuse River Estuary, and to estimate mean annual versus storm-related volume delivery to the Neuse River Estuary and Pamlico Sound. Significantly less water volume was delivered by Hurricane Fran (1996), but massive fish kills occurred in association with severe dissolved oxygen deficits and high containment loadings (total inorganic nitrogen, total phosphorus, suspended solids, fecal bacteria). The high water volume of the second hurricane season (Hurricanes Dennis, Floyd, Irene in 1999) delivered generally comparable but more dilute contaminant loads, and no major fish kills were reported. There were no discernable long-term adverse impacts on water quality. Populations of undesirable organisms such as toxic dinoflagellates were displaced down-estuary to habitats less conducive for growth. The response of fisheries was species-dependent: There was no apparent impact of the hurricanes on commercial landings of bivalve molluscs or shrimp. In contrast, interacting effects of hurricane floodwaters in 1999 and intensive fishing pressure led to striking reductions in blue crabs. Overall, the data support the premise that in shallow estuaries frequently disturbed by hurricanes, there can be rapid recovery in water quality and biota, and benefit from the scouring activity of these storms. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
January 13, 2004 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/01/040113075851.htm | A 'Hot Tower' Above The Eye Can Make Hurricanes Stronger | They are called hurricanes in the Atlantic, typhoons in the West Pacific, and tropical cyclones worldwide; but wherever these storms roam, the forces that determine their severity now are a little less mysterious. NASA scientists, using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, have found "hot tower" clouds are associated with tropical cyclone intensification. | Owen Kelley and John Stout of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., and George Mason University will present their findings at the American Meteorological Society annual meeting in Seattle on Monday, January 12. Kelley and Stout define a "hot tower" as a rain cloud that reaches at least to the top of the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere. It extends approximately nine miles (14.5 km) high in the tropics. These towers are called "hot" because they rise to such altitude due to the large amount of latent heat.Water vapor releases this latent heat as it condenses into liquid. A particularly tall hot tower rose above Hurricane Bonnie in August 1998, as the storm intensified a few days before striking North Carolina. Bonnie caused more than $1 billion damage and three deaths, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Hurricane Center. Kelley said, "The motivation for this new research is that it is not enough to predict the birth of a tropical cyclone. We also want to improve our ability to predict the intensity of the storm and the damage it would cause if it struck the coast." The pioneering work of Joanne Simpson, Jeffrey Halverson and others has already shown hot towers increase the chance a new tropical cyclone will form. Future work may use this association to improve forecasts of a cyclone's destructive potential. To achieve their goal, Kelley and Stout needed to compile a special kind of global statistics on the occurrence of hot towers inside tropical cyclones. The only possible data source was TRMM satellite, a joint effort of NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. "Many satellites can see the top of a hot tower, but what's special about this satellite's Precipitation Radar is that it gives you 'X-ray vision' so you can see inside a hot tower," Kelley said. To compile global statistics, the radar needs to be orbiting the Earth. After compiling the statistics, Kelley and Stout found a tropical cyclone with a hot tower in its eyewall was twice as likely to intensify within the next six hours than a cyclone that lacked a tower. The "eyewall" is the ring of clouds around a cyclone's central eye. Kelley and Stout considered many alternative definitions for hot towers before concluding the nine-mile height threshold was statistically significant. ###Funding for the research was provided by NASA's Earth Science Enterprise. The Enterprise strives to advance Earth System Science and to improve the prediction of climate, weather and natural hazards from the unique vantage point of space. For more information about the research and images on the Internet, visit: For information about the TRMM Satellite on the Internet, visit: For information about NOAA's National Hurricane Center, visit: For information about Hurricane Bonnie, visit: | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,004 |
November 25, 2003 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/11/031125072602.htm | 2003 Hurricane Season: Research Led To More Accurate Track Forecasts | BOULDER -- Findings from this year's active Atlantic hurricane season confirm that track forecasts have markedly improved, following computer-modeling advances at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that include the use of enhanced wind data from parachute-borne instrument packages devised at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The interagency U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) is providing support for the model improvements. | Preliminary data from NOAA's National Hurricane Center show that the average track error in NHC's 2003 Atlantic forecasts has been the smallest on record. Some of this year's hurricanes, such as Isabel, followed relatively smooth paths that made track forecasts easier. Others, such as Kate and Nicholas, evolved far more erratically. Such variation in storm behavior from year to year is one of several factors that influence forecast quality. However, "the past four years have seen a consistent improvement in our forecast tracks," says NHC deputy director Edward Rappaport. The boost in hurricane track accuracy follows a more steady improvement since the 1960s of 1–2% a year. Since 2000, the NHC forecasts have benefited from major USWRP-supported improvements in the global computer forecast model developed at NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), a part of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The 48-hour forecasts from NCEP's global model now predict the tracks of Atlantic tropical cyclones about 35% more accurately than they did prior to 2000, Rappaport says. "Improvements to our forecasts are directly linked to advances in the numerical models," says Rappaport. "The models drive the process of making better forecasts. The sustained improvement in performance by the NCEP global model provides confidence to the hurricane forecasters charged with making the official forecast." In the late 1990s, USWRP-supported scientists at EMC upgraded the NCEP model to include a better depiction of the hurricane core circulation, a more detailed description of the hurricane's larger-scale environment through advanced use of satellite data, and improved model physics. Other changes to the NCEP model allow it to more accurately incorporate data from dropsondes, the parachute-borne instrument packages designed at NCAR and deployed by NOAA's high-altitude Gulfstream IV aircraft. Introduced in the mid-1990s, these enhanced dropsondes yield far greater detail on winds in and near hurricanes, including high-altitude steering currents. The dropsonde development was funded by the National Science Foundation (NCAR's primary sponsor), NOAA, and the German Aerospace Center. "These improvements helped lead to an outstanding track forecast of Hurricane Michelle in 2001," says Naomi Surgi, leader of EMC's advanced hurricane modeling project. While most other forecast models showed that Michelle would strike Florida, the NCEP global model correctly predicted the storm would curve northeast, away from the state. Based on this guidance, unnecessary evacuations were avoided. Despite their progress in track prediction, forecasters have made comparatively little headway in predicting how strong a hurricane will become and how much rain it will produce. Inland rainfall is now one of the main hurricane-related threats to life and limb. For example, more people died from inland flooding related to Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 than died directly from the far more intense Hurricane Andrew in 1992. "The intensity problem and the rainfall problem are now the most significant challenges we face over the next decade," says Surgi. "This is what USWRP will be focusing on." USWRP support is also assisting in the development of the multi-agency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to be used by NOAA for public forecasts starting in late 2004. WRF is the successor to a long line of research models developed at NCAR, including the widely used MM5, the latest version of the NCAR/Penn State mesoscale (thunderstorm-scale) model. MM5 has been a mainstay of the research community and has been used in forecasting operations in a number of countries. "WRF will serve both the research and operational communities by providing a direct link between the two," says USWRP chief scientist Robert Gall, who also heads NCAR's meteorology division. "In this way, new forecasting technologies developed by researchers can move quickly into day-to-day forecasting operations." A research-oriented version of WRF, with a resolution as fine as 2.5 miles (4 kilometers), tracked Hurricane Isabel at NCAR this autumn. NCEP is developing a special version of WRF tailored for hurricanes. Called HWRF, it will include air, sea, and land coupling; a nested wave model; and analysis techniques that use airborne data to provide a better initial description of the three-dimensional circulation within the hurricane's core. "In combination with these advances, we expect that HWRF's high resolution and state-of-the-art physics will help improve the skill of hurricane intensity and rainfall outlooks," says Surgi. The HWRF is expected to replace the current operational high-resolution hurricane model at NCEP in 2006.###USWRP sponsors include NOAA, NASA, NSF, and the U.S. Department of Defense. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,003 |
October 30, 2003 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/10/031030062554.htm | NASA-Funded Earth Alert System To Aid In Disasters | The Maryland Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) has recently deployed a new communications system, based on NASA technology, that is designed to aid emergency management professionals when natural or man-made disasters occur. | During the early hours of Hurricane Isabel, key Maryland Emergency Management officials had access to Earth Alert, a system that enabled MEMA to quickly view personnel deployment and status on a map, track personnel movement, send text alerts as well as send messages to and from devices in the field. They were also able to report damages and coordinate response teams operating in the field. All these capabilities enabled MEMA to more efficiently provide relief to those in need. MEMA is the state agency within the State of Maryland charged with the responsibility of reducing loss of life and property and protecting Maryland's institutions from natural and man-made disasters. The agency accomplishes this by coordinating the use of state resources during emergencies and disasters. During a one-year pilot program, MEMA officials are testing the Earth Alert Emergency Management System, which was developed by 3e Technologies International (3eTI), Rockville, Md., and funded by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Technology Commercialization Office. As described by 3eTI, the Earth Alert System is a multi-faceted solution for Emergency Management Agencies/Organizations and First Responder communities. This new system is another success story in NASA's Technology Transfer Program, whose major goal is to transfer technology derived from its space activities to the public and private sectors for the benefit of humankind. The development of the Earth Alert System is based on NASA Goddard's communications and information systems technologies. "We have worked closely with 3eTi to help develop and implement a system that will enhance capabilities within the emergency management community. This one-year testing phase will allow us to provide feedback to the developers, and truly test its functionality," stated Clint Pipkin from MEMA's Readiness Division/Recovery Branch at Camp Fretterd Military Reservation located in Reisterstown, Md. "The system is now being used to provide logistic support at designated relief locations for MEMA Disaster Recovery Center personnel in areas hit hard by Hurricane Isabel." Because Earth Alert is a hosted Web-based solution, it can be implemented without buying expensive call center infrastructure, networked computer servers, or special hardware for field deployment. It uses commercially available GPS-enabled wireless phones, off-the-shelf PCs and standard web browsers. During this one-year implementation phase, MEMA will test the system with 10 hand-held units and will provide valuable feedback that will allow 3eTI to customize the software to meet the unique requirements of emergency management personnel in Maryland. The Disaster Recovery Center personnel at relief centers such as Annapolis, and Baltimore, are using a total of 10 Earth Alert units on a day-to-day basis. MEMA is using the Earth Alert system to locate the nearest Emergency Operations Center (EOC) Watch personnel on a map and to obtain their current status. This helps MEMA speed up response times and manage assets. The MEMA EOC can send standard messages and alert messages to the units in the field, and can receive messages from the units with location data. Because of this capability MEMA can keep a log of critical messages and display the messages on a map for better a better understanding of the situation. MEMA is exploring many of the capabilities for further use such as Damage Assessment and First Responder reporting. These capabilities would aide relief efforts because they enable faster reporting and the ability to speed up relief to hard hit areas. These capabilities will require a more wide spread deployment and cooperation with local agencies. MEMA can track personnel status through continuous map positioning, and shadow the progress of critical events through real-time management of personnel. These capabilities enhance personnel management, enable faster incident response time, and can mitigate incidents before they arise. With Earth Alert System capabilities, MEMA is now able to send situation alerts and weather alerts directly to field personnel based on their location or profile allowing the closest and best-equipped individuals to be directly routed to critical situations faster. A successful beta test of the Earth Alert System during the January 2003 inauguration parade of Governor Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. sparked MEMA's decision to implement the system from June 2003 to May 2004. MEMA provided their parade staff with GPS-enabled Nextel two-way radios that allowed them to keep the parade on schedule and to monitor the crowd for suspicious behavior. NASA initially conceived, sponsored and co-developed the first prototype of the warning system to broadcast survival information to isolated populations and then extended the original system to include the U.S. weather and communications satellite systems. From its Office of Commercial Programs, NASA provided funds for the Earth Alert System through the Small Business Innovation Research Program. The Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and the Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs provide opportunities for small, high technology companies and research institutions to participate in Government sponsored research and development efforts in key technology areas. The primary benefit of an SBIR/STTR project for a small business is in obtaining seed money to explore a technical idea without any loss of control or loss of equity, including intellectual property rights. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,003 |
September 18, 2003 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/09/030917072735.htm | Engineers Head Into Path Of Hurricane Isabel | CLEMSON -- Engineers from Clemson University and the University of Florida are scrambling to deploy four mobile data-acquisition platforms squarely in the path of oncoming Hurricane Isabel. They will converge in the Wilmington, N.C., area Tuesday night and then reposition along Isabel's likely path. | The "wind towers" will provide an accurate ground-level picture of the wind speed and direction. Clemson researchers will use data to help improve building codes for coastal areas. In some cases, their findings could actually reduce building costs. Research leader on the projects is Tim Reinhold, a nationally known wind engineer who is a professor of civil engineering at Clemson. "This gives us one of our first chances to get the high-resolution wind-speed data – near the ground, close to where a storm passes – that we need in order to develop design bases for hurricane-resistant homes," said Reinhold. Typical airport anemometers simply aren't designed to collect this type of information. Hurricane-hunting aircraft, meanwhile, only measure wind speed at considerable altitude and usually do not make measurements over land. Each steel-reinforced platform, which weighs up to 4,500 pounds, is specifically designed to withstand hurricane-force winds and features special securing legs. The platforms can be fully extended and secured in place in as little as 20 minutes. The platforms feature three anemometers specifically designed to operate in high-wind storms. The devices will measure wind speed at heights of 33 feet, a standard reference height, and 15 feet, the height of a typical single-story home. That information will then be relayed along steel-reinforced cables to an onboard computer housed in a reinforced box The teams also have permanent instrumentation capability on approximately 35 houses in Florida and South Carolina. The houses, which have different retrofits, have all been pre-wired and can be outfitted with the monitoring equipment in the event of a predicted hurricane. Clemson's Wind Load Test Facility is one of the nation's top laboratories for testing the effects of wind on low-rise structures such as homes and schools. Clemson's research has resulted in some of the most accurate wind tunnel modeling techniques currently available. This work led to development of criteria for wind-tunnel testing sponsored by the National Institute of Standards and Technology. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,003 |
September 17, 2003 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/09/030917071834.htm | 'Doppler On Wheels' To Intercept Eye Of Hurricane Isabel, Future Weather Model Zooms In For Forecast | Arlington, Va -- Three "Doppler On Wheels" (DOW) mobile radars developed partly at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are heading toward the mid-Atlantic coast to intercept the eye of Hurricane Isabel as the powerful storm hits land. Meanwhile, the nation's next-generation weather model, developed at NCAR and other labs, is training its electronic "eyes" on a virtual Isabel at NCAR's supercomputing center in Boulder. | The DOWs will deploy at or near the coast in the direct path of the storm. "From a head-on position," says NCAR affiliate scientist Josh Wurman, "the DOW can collect unprecedented high-resolution data and rapid-scan Doppler radar data from inside the eye." At close range the scans will observe fine-scale but potentially damaging storm features as small as 40-feet across, including wind streaks, gusts and other structures. The DOWs are a collaborative effort between NCAR and the Center for Severe Weather Research. Wurman operates the vehicles through the CSWR, with support primarily from the National Science Foundation. "This is an exciting opportunity to improve our understanding of the finer scale structure of one of nature's most powerful phenomena," says Cliff Jacobs, program director in NSF's division of atmospheric sciences. "Federal support for national centers and university researchers has allowed the nexus of people, tools, and ideas to converge to gain new knowledge about hurricanes." The newest of the radar systems, called the Rapid-DOW, sends out six radar beams simultaneously. By raking the sky six times faster than traditional single-beam radars, Rapid-DOW can visualize three-dimensional volumes in five-to-ten seconds and observe boundary layer rolls, wind gusts, embedded tornadoes and other phenomena as they evolve. Back in Boulder, NCAR scientists are running the nation's future Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model on NCAR's IBM "Blue Sky" supercomputer, testing the model's skill at predicting Isabel's intensity, structures and track. Operating on a model grid with data points only 4 kilometers (2.5 miles miles) apart, Blue Sky hums with calculations all night as WRF zooms in on Isabel, bringing into focus the storm's internal structure, including eyewall and rain bands. The result is a high-precision, two-day forecast. In the morning, the model starts over to create a new five-day forecast using a 10-kilometer grid and updated conditions. NCAR's primary sponsor, the National Science Foundation, supported the development of both WRF and the DOW at NCAR. The WRF model is a cooperative effort by NCAR and several federal agencies and military branches. "It's an exciting opportunity," says scientist Jordan Powers, a WRF development manager at NCAR. "Resolving a hurricane's fine-scale structures in real time with this next-generation weather model is breaking new ground for forecasters and researchers." The DOW is pushing technological limits of its own. "The DOW has revolutionized the study of tornadoes and other violent and small-scale atmospheric phenomena," says Wurman. The large, spinning, brightly-colored radar dishes have intercepted the eyes of five hurricanes: Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Georges and Lili. Data from the retired DOW1 resulted in the discovery of entirely new phenomena in hurricanes, called intense boundary layer rolls, which contain the highest and most dangerous wind gusts. Though Powers won't be using DOW data for WRF's forecasts this week, he and others may compare Wurman's real-world observations with the model results in the future. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,003 |
September 16, 2003 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/09/030916074449.htm | NASA Keeps Watch Over Isabel, Captures Spectacular Images | NASA is keeping a close watch on Hurricane Isabel as it churns in the Atlantic with winds that top 150 miles per hour. Instruments aboard NASA's suite of Earth-observing satellites are monitoring the storm as it makes its way toward the East Coast of the United States. Meanwhile, astronauts aboard the International Space Station are capturing unique video of the storm. | Spectacular images of Isabel are available on both the Internet and NASA Television. Expedition 7 Commander Yuri Malenchenko and NASA Science Officer Ed Lu aboard the International Space Station captured the latest images and video as they passed 240 statute miles over the storm.NASA will continue to monitor the storm and publish images and video as Isabel continues to move toward the Eastern Seaboard. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uses NASA data as part of its prediction tool kit while working to predict where and when landfall will occur. The data are also vital to hurricane researchers, who seek to understand how these dangerous storms develop and affect people and property on land and at sea.Video is available on NASA TV's Video File beginning at noon EDT. Still images and animation of Isabel as captured by one of the NASA instruments watching the storm, the MODIS instrument onboard NASA's Terra satellite, are now available on the web at:On Wednesday, Sept. 17, NASA TV is offering live shots about Isabel and the study of hurricanes, featuring interviews with two NASA scientists and up-to-date views from various NASA satellites. To sign up, contact Rachel Weintraub at 301/286-0918.B-roll will be run on NASA TV at 6:00 a.m. EDT Sept. 17; an early version of the Video File on Isabel will run on a commercial satellite (coordinates TBD) at 9:00 a.m. EDT, then throughout the day on the NASA TV Video File. NASA TV is available on AMC-9, transponder 9C, C-Band, located at 85 degrees west longitude. The frequency is 3880.0 MHz. Polarization is vertical, and audio is monaural at 6.80 MHz. For information about NASA TV and its Video File feeds on the Internet, visit: | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,003 |
September 11, 2003 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/09/030911072151.htm | NASA Satellites Sample Hurricane 'Ingredients' To Help Forecasters | The Atlantic Ocean becomes a meteorological mixing bowl from June 1 to November 30, replete with all needed ingredients for a hurricane recipe. NASA turns to its cadre of satellites to serve up a feast of information to the forecasters who seek to monitor and understand these awesome storms. | Typically, during the peak of hurricane season, from late August to mid-September, tropical cyclones of interest to U.S. coastal regions form around the Cape Verde Islands off Africa. NASA satellites are critical for helping forecasters determine if all of the ingredients are coming together to create a hurricane. If a hurricane forms, it is critical to know how strong it may be, which coastal communities or sea lanes will be at risk. NASA provides researchers and forecasters with space-based observations, data assimilation, and computer climate modeling. NASA sponsored measurements and modeling of global sea surface temperature, precipitation, winds and sea surface height have also improved understanding of El Nino and La Nina events, which respectively tend to suppress and enhance Atlantic and Gulf hurricane development. Thirty years ago, meteorologists were unable to see the factors in hurricane formation and could only spot a hurricane with still pictures from the TIROS-N satellite. Over the past 10 years, visible and infrared satellite sensors were the workhorses for monitoring hurricanes. Today, multiple NASA satellites exploit everything from radar pulses to microwaves to enhance forecasts, providing data to researchers several times a day.The first ingredient in the hurricane recipe is sea surface temperature of at least 82 F. Unlike traditional infrared satellite instruments, the Aqua satellite's Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Microwave Imager can detect sea surface temperatures through clouds. This valuable information can help determine if a tropical cyclone is likely to strengthen or weaken. The Jason-1 satellite altimeter provides data on sea surface height, a key measurement of ocean energy available to encourage and sustain hurricanes.Another necessary ingredient is rotating winds over the ocean's surface, precursors to tropical cyclone development. The NASA provided SeaWinds instruments aboard Japan's Midori 2 and NASA's QuikSCAT satellites can detect these winds before other instruments, providing even earlier notice of developing storms to forecasters and scientists. Air temperature and humidity are also important factors. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) experiment suite aboard the Aqua satellite obtains measurements of global temperature and humidity throughout the atmosphere. This may lead to improve weather forecasts, improved determination of cyclone intensity, location and tracks, and the severe weather associated with storms, such as damaging winds.Rainfall intensity is the final ingredient, and the Precipitation Radar provided by Japan for the TRMM satellite provides CAT scan-like views of rainfall in the massive thunderstorms of hurricanes. TRMM instruments probe young tropical systems for rainfall intensity and the likelihood of storm development. TRMM also sees "hot towers" or vertical columns of rapidly rising air that indicate very strong thunderstorms. These towers are like powerful pistons that convert energy from water vapor into a powerful wind and rain-producing engine. Once a storm develops, TRMM provides an inside view of how organized and tightly spiraled rain bands are, key indicators of storm intensity.TRMM provides tropical cyclone intensity information from the safe distance of space allowing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Hurricane Center and the Department of Defense Joint Typhoon Warning Center to turn to TRMM, QuikSCAT and other NASA satellites for early assessment of storms in the open ocean. The hurricane monitoring capabilities enabled by these satellites are funded by NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, which is dedicated to understanding the Earth as an integrated system and applying Earth System Science to improve prediction of climate, weather, and natural hazards using the unique vantage point of space.For more information and NASA images on the Internet, visit: | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,003 |
June 23, 2003 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/06/030623084143.htm | In-Home Shelter Could Ease Chaotic Hurricane Evacuations | TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Call it an in-house shelter for "the big one." | A researcher at the Florida A&M University-Florida State University College of Engineering has designed a hurricane shelter that can be built inside most conventional homes to withstand winds of 140 mph - a Category 4 storm - even if the rest of the house is ripped apart.Nur Yazdani, a professor of civil and environmental engineering, said the so-called "retrofit room" involves fortifying a bathroom or closet with hurricane straps, anchor bolts, plywood or steel plate walls, an independent ceiling and a steel door to keep its occupants safe. All of these materials are available at most home improvement stores, and the room is fully functional for its original purpose once completed.The shelter can be built for about $3,000 in materials and labor.Yazdani developed the design with a grant FSU received from the Florida Department of Community Affairs' Division of Emergency Management.Faced with chaotic evacuations during hurricane warnings that cause massive traffic backups and fills available space at public shelters, state officials tout the in-home shelter as a safe stay-at-home option. Residents who live directly in a strong hurricane's path or in flood zones would be encouraged to evacuate even if their homes have the shelter, said Craig Fugate, Florida's director of emergency management."We want residents to identify and develop safe local shelter options as part of their disaster plans," Fugate said. "If they have taken all the necessary precautions, staying at home is a better alternative than getting out on the roads and possibly putting themselves at risk of greater danger."Information on local flood zones and shelters can be found on the state's emergency management Web page at www.floridadisaster.org. Yazdani's report is also temporarily available at this Web site.Yazdani said he wanted to develop a less expensive alternative to an in-house shelter designed for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The FEMA "safe room" is designed to withstand a tornado with winds of 250 mph, but it also carries a price tag of about $6,000 and is difficult to build in most existing homes.Yazdani said the risk of a tornado hitting a home in Florida is much smaller than that of a major hurricane impacting it."When I saw FEMA's safe room design, I tried to think of how you could do something like that but at less cost," Yazdani said. "The retrofit room offers a comparable alternative that will withstand the vast majority of hurricanes at a price more people can afford."To obtain the specifications for the retrofit room, e-mail Danny Kilcollins at | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,003 |
June 10, 2003 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/06/030610080344.htm | Salt Levels In Rain Provide Clues To Hurricane Formation; University Of Houston Scientists Hope To Fly Novel Research Tool Through Storms | HOUSTON, June 9, 2003 – University of Houston scientists are testing the waters – literally – with a new salt-detection device specially designed to collect data from rain and water vapor in tropical cyclones, all in an effort to better understand how tropical storms form and intensify into hurricanes. | The instrument may begin flying into storms on board a research plane as early as August, pending approval from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. James Lawrence, UH associate professor of geosciences, has studied hurricanes for years, from the ground and from the sky. He says one of the key elements powering a hurricane is how heat is transferred from the ocean's surface into the air, and if his detector is worth its salt, it should shed some light on the engine driving hurricanes. "How heat is transferred from the ocean's surface into the air is a fundamental question, and understanding the mechanisms of heat transfer will help us make better models of hurricane formation, including models of how they grow in intensity," he says. Lawrence says studies such as his are key to understanding the dangers of hurricanes. "Intensification of a hurricane is a very important issue, and sudden intensification is very dangerous. Unfortunately, this is what forecasters are least able to predict, along with how much rainfall will be produced by a storm." One of the ways heat can be transferred from the ocean is by the wind churning up the sea and throwing droplets of sea spray up from the surface. "Theorists think that there is a significant change in heat transfer as the winds pick up in the interior of the hurricane because you get a lot of sea spray," Lawrence says. His results from previous data gathering and research suggest that under the eye wall, which surrounds the center of a hurricane, a significant amount of sea spray is being uplifted. Perhaps as much as 30 percent of the total water and water vapor in the eye wall is being directly ripped off the sea surface, but Lawrence says he needed a new method to prove that hypothesis. "The suggestion is there, but it's not easy to prove. For salt, there's no question that that water is coming from sea spray," he says. "Those droplets of water get carried up in the eye wall and into rain bands, and they take salt with them. By measuring the salt content, or salinity, of the rain, we should then be able to infer what's happening at the sea surface in terms of sea spray and the transfer of heat from the surface." When the first version of Lawrence's device flew on board a research aircraft in the late 1990s, he realized he hadn't taken into account environmental factors that could skew the experiment's results – in this case, a dirty plane. Using a rain collector on the fuselage over the wing of the plane, Lawrence found that as it flew into a hurricane, the first rain collected was very salty. As it flew farther through the storm, the salinity decreased. "We discovered that we were basically washing the airplane," Lawrence says. The plane had been sitting on the ground in Tampa, not far from the Gulf, so it was covered with salt. "As we started to go through the hurricane, the salt began to wash off the plane and into our collector, giving us those huge numbers." To design a new salt detector, Lawrence worked with Hans Hofmeister, director of instrumentation for the UH Department of Chemistry. Hofmeister built a novel device that can be mounted on the very front, or nose, of the plane, where it should avoid detecting water that has splashed off the plane. "That's our hypothesis, and we hope we can achieve that. Hans has come up with a very clever way of doing this so that we can get continuous, very sensitive, and real-time data over a whole possible range of salt content." The UH device has already passed a few tests on the ground – first strapped to the front a Lawrence's pick-up truck while they drove on the freeway, then in a wind tunnel at Texas A&M University. Lawrence, who has been funded by NASA, is currently awaiting final approval to fly the newly-designed instrument on board a hurricane research plane beginning in August. Scientists from the hurricane research division of NOAA determine what flies on the plane, which is operated by NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center in Tampa, Fla.The UH detector is a small cylinder that is flat on the forward end and shaped to attach to the aircraft on the rearward end. Mounted on the front end is the heart of the device, an array of tiny wires lined up parallel with one another. The wires are connected to sophisticated controls and a voltmeter via cables that run through an opening at the rear of the cylinder. Once the device is mounted to the plane, those cables run inside the craft to a control console. Typically, to detect salinity of water, researchers dip two electrodes into a container of solution and measure the amount of current that flows between the wires. But if you want to measure salt levels instantaneously, you can't wait for rain water to collect in a jar as a plane flies through a storm, Hofmeister says. In his design, the wires are exposed to the air as the plane passes through rain and clouds. "It's the same principle as when you're driving through a rainstorm and water piles up on your windshield," Hofmeister says. "Rain piles up on this slate of wires as it flies through a hurricane. The more salt that's in the water, the easier it is for current to flow between the wires, so the current is higher." The salinity detector actually measures voltage, he notes – the higher the current, the lower the voltage reading. Another challenge Hofmeister faced in designing the instrument was making it capable of withstanding a high-voltage shock and still function. As a plane flies through the air, static electricity is generated, which discharges in huge high-voltage sparks. "This instrument is a very delicate circuit, so I built surge suppressors that would take all that static electricity and get rid of it in order to prevent damage to the circuit," Hofmeister says. In his lab, the voltmeter connected to the UH device measures to one millionth of a volt difference in voltage readings, but a shock of 15,000 volts to the salinity detector has no effect – the device still functions normally. "Our experiments probably won't be used to predict anything about an individual hurricane and its potential strength, but the better our understanding of how hurricanes in general work, the more you may be able to predict where one will go or how powerful it may become," Lawrence says. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,003 |
April 25, 2003 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/04/030425071845.htm | Hurricane Winds Carried Ocean Salt & Plankton Far Inland | Researchers found surprising evidence of sea salt and frozen plankton in high, cold, cirrus clouds, the remnants of Hurricane Nora, over the U.S. plains states. Although the 1997 hurricane was a strong eastern Pacific storm, her high ice-crystal clouds extended many miles inland, carrying ocean phenomena deep into the U.S. heartland. | Kenneth Sassen of the University of Utah, Salt Lake City, and University of Alaska Fairbanks; W. Patrick Arnott of the Desert Research Institute (DRI) in Reno, Nev.; and David O. Starr of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., co-authored a paper about Hurricane Nora's far-reaching effects. The paper was published in the April 1, 2003, issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. Scientists were surprised to find what appeared to be frozen plankton in some cirrus crystals collected by research aircraft over Oklahoma, far from the Pacific Ocean. This was the first time examples of microscopic marine life, like plankton, were seen as "nuclei" of ice crystals in the cirrus clouds of a hurricane. Nora formed off the Panama coast, strengthened as it traveled up the Baja Peninsula, and the hurricane crossed into California in September 1997. Over the western U.S., Nora deposited a stream of high cirrus, ice crystal, clouds that created spectacular optical effects, such as arcs and halos, above a broad region including Utah and Oklahoma. That stream of cirrus clouds enabled researchers to analyze growth of ice crystals from different nuclei. Different nuclei, like sulfate particles, sea salt and desert dust, affect ice-crystal growth and shape. Torn from the sea surface by strong hurricane winds, sea salt and other particles from evaporated sea spray are carried to the cold upper troposphere in storm updrafts, where the drops freeze and become ice crystals. Plankton, a microscopic organism, is also likely present in the sea spray and is similarly lofted to high levels. "Understanding how ice crystals grow and what determines their shapes is important in understanding how they interact with sunlight and infrared energy," Starr noted. "These interactions are important processes in the global climate system. They are also critical to sensing cloud properties from space, where NASA uses measurements of the reflected solar radiation to infer cloud physical properties, such as ice-crystal size," he said. Data were gathered using ground-based remote sensors at the Facility for Atmospheric Remote Sensing in Salt Lake City and at the Clouds and Radiation Testbed in northern Oklahoma. A research aircraft collected particle samples over Oklahoma. Observations from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 9 (West), launched by NASA and operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, were also used. DRI analyzed the ice crystals collected from Nora. Scientists were using data generated through the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. The ARM Program's purpose is obtaining field measurements and developing computer models of the atmosphere. Researchers hope to better understand the processes that control the transfer of solar and thermal infrared energy in the atmosphere, especially in clouds, and at the Earth's surface. The ARM energy measurements also double-check data from the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites. By ensuring the satellites are recording the same energy reflected and absorbed by clouds from Hurricane Nora as those provided by the ground data in this study, scientists hope to take fewer ground measurements in the future, and enable the satellites to provide the data. The DOE ARM program, National Science Foundation, and NASA's Earth Science Enterprise funded this research. The Earth Science Enterprise is dedicated to understanding the Earth as an integrated system and applying Earth System Science to improve prediction of climate, weather and natural hazards, such as hurricanes, using the unique vantage point of space. | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,003 |
October 30, 2002 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/10/021030073914.htm | Coral Reefs Serve As Records For Reconstructing Climate And Storm Patterns | A recent study of coral formations in different tropical locations will be used to help geologists reconstruct climate and storm patterns of the past and learn more about the preservation of reefs. The findings will be presented by David Meyer, professor of geology from the University of Cincinnati, at the upcoming 2002 meeting and exposition of the Geological Society of America. | Meyer's previous research established that coral reefs can be an index of the ocean's health and are greatly impacted by pollution. The report he will deliver at this year's GSA meeting describes how hurricanes affect coral formations and will help scientists compare modern storm effects to those of the past. Meyer conducted the research with Benjamin Greenstein of Cornell College in Mt. Vernon, Iowa, and recent UC graduate Jill Bries. The trio's work investigated the effect that the frequency of hurricanes had on the geological record contained in coral reefs. In high-frequency hurricane areas like the Bahamas and Florida Keys, coral formations were damaged and broken. Meyer described it "like a forest fire going through." Reefs studied in the southern Caribbean islands of Curacao and Bonaire were well preserved owing to a very low frequency of storms. The reefs of the Caribbean region were formed during the interglacial stages of the Pleistocene epoch when sea levels were much higher; current sea levels have left these reefs exposed and intact. Both areas of reefs were formed by the same species and fairly close together in terms of geological time. By comparing the Caribbean reefs with the newer formations in the Bahaman and Floridian areas, Meyer, Greenstein, and Bries were able to establish a model for looking at older fossil reefs. "As you go farther back in time," said Meyer, "the reef building species are different and you need a present model to start with. Then you can go back to more ancient reefs to get more insight into the climate and storm patterns of older times." Meyer said that Bries obtained funding for the project from Sigma Xi, the Paleobiological Fund, and UC's graduate division.
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May 7, 2002 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/05/020502072332.htm | Scripps Researchers Use High-Tech Imagery For New Insights Into Breaking Wave Dynamics | To surfers, breaking waves represent the thrill and challenge at the core of their sport. To scientists who study interactions between the air and the sea, breaking waves represent one of the most vital air-sea exchange mechanisms. A research study led by Professor Ken Melville of Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, has provided unprecedented insight into the dynamics involved in breaking waves. | The study, the cover story of the May 2 issue of the London-based journal Nature, advances the science of important processes associated with breaking waves, including limiting the heights of ocean waves, the generation of ocean currents, and mixing of the ocean surface. "One of the most important functions of breaking waves is to transfer momentum from the wind to ocean currents," said Melville, a professor of oceanography in the Marine Physical Laboratory and Physical Oceanography Research Division at Scripps. "Wave breaking also is vital to air-sea exchange processes such as heat and gas transfer, which may have a profound effect on weather and climate." In the past, wave breaking has been tracked by so-called "whitecap coverage," in which still or video imagery was used to statically identify ocean whitecaps and the corresponding surface coverage by breaking waves. But those measurements suffered because they failed to account for the motion of the breaking waves, an aspect critical for understanding an array of air-sea interactions. For the new study (part of the Shoaling Waves Experiment, or "SHOWEX"), Melville and Peter Matusov (also of Scripps Institution) used high-tech instrumentation aboard a light aircraft to obtain detailed image sequences of breaking waves. The equipment included an airborne video system and differential global positioning system (GPS) technology to precisely characterize breaking processes. The results of the study not only demonstrate that wave breaking can be accurately measured using remote imaging techniques, they help describe aspects of wave growth and decay in unique detail. The information also will be used by scientists to improve descriptions of marine aerosol production and heat and gas transfer. "With the data we’ve taken in the field, plus laboratory measurements, we’ll be able to do much to improve models of aerosol generation," said Melville. The Nature study sets the stage for two new projects beginning this summer that will attempt to probe characteristics of hurricanes. In the first, with Melville and Scripps’s Eric Terrill, a new imaging system will be flown aboard a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) P3 "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft. Data from this project (part of the Office of Naval Research Coupled Boundary Layers/Air-Sea Transfers, or "CBLAST" experiment), to be obtained over the next three years, will be used to measure hurricane-driven whitecaps and ocean spray in an effort to understand their role in hurricane dynamics and thermodynamics. The second project, led by Terrill and Melville, will use modified autonomous ocean profilers to measure the influence of hurricanes on the thermal structure and mixing of the upper ocean, and the air-sea interface. The profilers, originally developed by Scripps Professor Russ Davis, will be deployed by aircraft ahead of hurricanes and transmit data via satellite. "The improved knowledge of air-sea interaction in hurricanes from both of these projects will lead to improved numerical predictions of hurricane winds, waves, storm surges, and hurricane landfall," said Melville. "The potential monitoring and predictive aspects of these projects are most important as the continuing development and growth of coastal communities requires longer warning and evacuation times to minimize the loss of life and property from hurricanes." Funding for the Nature study was provided through grants from the Office of Naval Research (physical oceanography) and the National Science Foundation (ocean sciences). Melville also acknowledges the unique capabilities of NOAA’s Long-EZ aircraft and Tim Crawford’s "fearless flying" during the project.
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March 25, 2002 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/03/020325080253.htm | Hurricanes Impact Carbon Sequestration By Forests | ASHEVILLE, NC -- Hurricanes significantly lessen the capacity of US forests to sequester atmospheric carbon, according to a recent analysis by a USDA Forest Service researcher. | Global warming has been tied to increasing amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere from human activities ranging from clearing land to burning fossil fuels. Attention has been focused on US forests as possible sinks for carbon dioxide from various emissions. Estimates of the amount of carbon dioxide taken up by forests vary; predictions based on these estimates are an important factor in policy debates about global warming control. In the March 2002 issue of the journal Environmental Pollution, Steven McNulty, USDA Forest Service Southern Global Change Program Leader, suggests that the effects of hurricanes must be taken into account in predicting the carbon storage capacity of US Forests along the southeastern seaboard. At least one major hurricane hits the southeastern US coastline two out of every three years. Over 55 percent of the land in the southern U.S. is forested: timber damage from one hurricane can exceed $1 billion – and significantly reduce carbon stored. “A single hurricane can convert ten percent of the total annual carbon storage for the United States into dead and downed forest biomass,” said McNulty. “Hurricanes leave behind a lot of dead trees that decompose and return carbon to the atmosphere before it can be harvested.” McNulty analyzed hurricane damage data collected between 1900 and 1996 to address three issues related to carbon sequestration. First, he looked at how much carbon is transferred from living to dead carbon pools when trees are broken or uprooted. Second, he explored what happened to the downed trees – whether they were salvage logged, burned, or consumed by insects. Finally, he examined the long-term impacts of hurricanes on forest regeneration and productivity. McNulty found that even though hurricanes do not immediately change the state of carbon in a downed tree, a large amount of accumulated forest carbon is lost in the years following a major storm. For economic reasons, most of the wood from hurricanes is not salvaged. Not only is carbon lost as trees decompose, but the downed wood becomes fuel for wild fires that can kill surviving vegetation and release additional carbon dioxide. “If increased carbon sequestration is going to be one of the mechanisms used to reduce net emissions of carbon dioxide in the United States,” said McNulty, "incentives to increase post-hurricane timber salvage need to be addressed.” Hurricanes remove the most mature trees, allowing the younger trees in the forest understory – more active in absorbing and converting carbon to biomass – to take over. Forests fill in the gaps, though former density may not return for generations. “Short-term increases in forest productivity do not compensate for the loss in numbers of trees and the 15 to 20 years needed to recover the leaf area of mature forests,” said McNulty. “Hurricanes must be considered a significant factor in reducing long-term carbon storage in US forests.”
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January 31, 2002 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/01/020131073853.htm | Earth Scientists Use Fractals To Measure And Predict Natural Disasters | Predicting the size, location, and timing of natural hazards is virtually impossible, but now, earth scientists are able to forecast hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and landslides using fractals. A fractal is a mathematical formula of a pattern that repeats over a wide range of size and time scales. These patterns are hidden within more complex systems. A good example of a fractal is the branching system of a river. Small tributaries join to form larger and larger "branches" in the system, but each small piece of the system closely resembles the branching pattern as a whole. | At the American Geophysical Union meeting held last month, Benoit Mandelbrot, a professor of mathematical sciences at Yale University who is considered to be the father of fractals, described how he has been using fractals to find order within complex systems in nature, such as the natural shape of a coastline. As a result of his research, earth scientists are taking Mandelbrot’s fractal approach one step further and are measuring past events and making probability forecasts about the size, location, and timing of future natural disasters. "By understanding the fractal order and scale imbedded in patterns of chaos, researchers found a deeper level of understanding that can be used to predict natural hazards," says Christopher Barton, a research geologist at the United States Geological Survey, "They can measure past events like a hurricane and then apply fractal mathematics to predict future hurricane events." In the past, earth scientists have relied on statistical methods to forecast natural hazard events, but when Barton used fractals, he found that these patterns contain a level of information that has never been seen using statistical methods. Barton discovered that by comparing the fractal formulas of the size and frequency of a hurricane’s wind speed to the historic record of information about past hurricane landfall location and timing that he was able to predict the approximate wind speed of the hurricane when it made landfall at a given coastal location along the United States Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Forecasts of hazardous natural phenomena based on the application of fractals are now available to government agencies responsible for planning and responding to natural disasters such the Federal Emergency Management Association and other emergency personnel to be able to better forecast the size, location, and timing of future events. "Based on the fractal patterns seen over the past 100 years," says Barton, "We can better forecast the probability of a future event." Thanks to Dr. Mandelbrot, earth scientists like Dr. Barton have a powerful, new tool to predict future chaotic events of nature.
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December 14, 2001 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/12/011214081118.htm | Man-Made Hurricane Hits South Carolina Coast Monday | CLEMSON — Clemson University engineers destroyed more houses on the U.S. mainland than hurricanes did this summer – and Tim Reinhold wouldn’t want it any other way. | Reinhold, a nationally recognized structural engineer, lead a team of students in "testing to destruction" eight houses in coastal South Carolina. Using everything from a 35-foot crane to vacuum chambers, they pulled and poked roofs, walls and rafters in the interest of finding out what hurricane retrofits work best in real-life simulations.The final site this testing season will be a split-level house. Its roof will be wracked apart by two cranes to test the effectiveness of hurricane straps against the combined forces of uplift and sheer. Testing takes place Monday, Dec. 17, outside of Conway.Test homes were damaged by floods in Hurricane Floyd and already slated for destruction. Approximately 15 houses have been used in the Clemson trials. All are in Horry County, a coastal county dominated by the tourist destination Myrtle Beach."This takes the lab into absolute real-world conditions, where we can scientifically monitor exactly what happens and evaluate how well the retrofits work," said Reinhold, an associate civil engineering professor.Engineering standbys, such as vacuum chambers and pressure transducers, were used during testing, but researchers also expanded the scientific arsenal to include air bags exploding against windows and airborne debris (ie, 2x4’s) pounding walls, shutters and saferooms at 100-mph speeds. The side-by-side comparisons of retrofitted and non-retrofitted areas will allow researchers to determine what works best and installs most easily in the field, said Reinhold.The project is a partnership between Clemson, Horry County, the South Carolina Department of Insurance, the Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), the Horry-Georgetown Homebuilders Association and local building officials from Horry County, Conway and Myrtle Beach. Also involved are the S.C. Sea Grant Consortium and N.C. Sea Grant.Retrofits under study include the effectiveness of adding screws or ring-shank nails to supplement the existing nailing pattern on new roofs; using adhesives applied from the attic space on existing roofs; bracing gable roof ends to prevent the failure; installing hurricane straps or retrofit brackets to strengthen the roof-wall connection; using structural ties to improve the anchorage of porch roofs or substantial overhangs.Results of the tests will be made available in the spring.Clemson has one of the nation's top research facilities to study the effects of high winds on low-rise structures such as homes and schools.The nearly $84,000 project will provide more accurate estimates of retrofit costs and the potential benefits of such measures, said Jeff Sciaudone, associate director of engineering for the Institute for Business & Home Safety. The IBHS is an initiative of the insurance industry to reduce deaths, injuries, property damage, economic losses and human suffering caused by natural disasters.For Horry County, hurt by Hurricane Floyd in September 1999, the project is an opportunity to take back a little of what Floyd took away.The research puts to use some of the 29 uninhabitable homes bought as part of FEMA's repetitive flood buyout program in Horry County.
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October 11, 2001 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/10/011011070708.htm | NASA Technology Eyes Better Hurricane Forecasts | Two NASA scientists have for the first time taken simultaneous high-altitude radar, temperature, and wind measurements that reveal the anatomy of hurricanes and shed light on what makes them intensify. The results could lead to better forecasting in the future. | The activities were part of CAMEX-4 (The Convection And Moisture EXperiment), a joint effort between NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and a number of universities, that ended on September 24."We had three flights over Hurricane Humberto in the last three days," NASA Goddard Space Flight Center researcher and a mission scientist for Camex-4, Gerry Heymsfield said. "These were the most comprehensive measurements of the structure of the hurricane ever recorded."As Hurricane Humberto raged over the Atlantic Ocean, Heymsfield fitted NASA's high altitude ER-2 aircraft with a downward-looking radar, called an ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP). From the ER-2's vantage of 12 miles (20 km) up, the EDOP uses the Doppler shift of rain and ice particles within clouds to measure rain intensity, air speed and velocity within the storm. NASA's ER-2 aircraft provides a unique perspective over the top of the storm and flies so high the pilot needs to wear a spacesuit.Earlier, on September 10, another Goddard scientist, Jeff Halverson, made use of ER-2 to drop temperature and wind sensors into the eye of Hurricane Erin. The sensors, called dropsondes, were automatically released from the plane by a computer-operated system.As they fell, the dropsondes tallied air temperatures and winds through the storm's eye, from the top of the hurricane to the ocean surface. By taking these readings at eight different locations in the hurricane, "It's as though we obtained a topographical temperature map of the storm," says Halverson, who maintains a dual appointment between Goddard and the University of Maryland-Baltimore County's Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology. He adds that Erin had a classic hurricane structure with a well-defined eye, and the new data will provide excellent baselines for figuring out how these storms intensify.When hurricanes occur, heat gets generated inside the center of thunderstorms that eventually make up a hurricane. The heat, created largely by condensation in clouds, causes the air to expand and rise and that lowers air pressure near surface of the water. When the surface pressure lowers, air accelerates from areas of higher pressure surrounding the storm toward the lower pressure area near the sea surface. As it flows, the air picks up some of the spin of the Earth and starts to move counterclockwise in a vortex. The winds begin blowing faster towards the center and the storm intensifies into a hurricane.By using dropsonde measurements of winds, temperature, surface pressure and moisture, and then combining those readings with EDOP data of air motions and precipitation levels in those clouds, the researchers now have necessary data for assessing a hurricane's structure. That's because the EDOP provides information about the clouds that create heat and warm the hurricane's spinning vortex, and in turn, the dropsondes measure the high altitude temperatures that drive the vortex and in turn create more clouds."It is significant to understand the temperature inside the eye of the storm at high altitudes because that is something that is not very well known," Halverson said. "To understand whether the storm is intensifying or not you have to know whether the temperature is increasing."Halverson's temperature readings and Heymsfield's results "work best together to answer fundamental questions about the physics that drive a hurricane," said Halverson.Scott Braun, another NASA Goddard Space Flight Center researcher, will now use the new data to create detailed computer simulations of hurricanes. These models may help to better predict future hurricanes.The dropsonde system was developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and installed onto NASA's ER-2 aircraft.The Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX) was the fourth in a series of field research investigations sponsored by the Earth Science Enterprise at NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC. The mission united researchers from 10 universities, five NASA centers and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Based out of the Naval Air Station at Jacksonville, Fla., this year's mission ran from Aug. 16 through Sept. 24 - traditionally the most active part of the hurricane season.
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August 13, 2001 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/08/010810064634.htm | Clemson Rips Apart Houses For Science | CLEMSON — In a twist on the fairy tale, Clemson University researchers will be the ones to huff, puff and blow the house down this summer – make that 15 houses. | Using everything from high-tech crowbars to a 35-ton crane, Clemson civil engineers will “test to destruction” houses outfitted with hurricane-resistant retrofits. Test subjects range from brick ranch to wooden two-story; all were damaged by floods in Hurricane Floyd and slated for destruction in Horry County. “This takes the lab into absolute real-world conditions where we can scientifically monitor exactly what happens and evaluate how well the retrofits work," said Tim Reinhold, Clemson associate civil engineering professor. Reinhold and his team of five students are making side-by-side comparisons of retrofitted and non-retrofitted areas to determine what works best and can be installed most easily by contractors in the field. Work started earlier this summer, but the most visual blowdown will be Tuesday, Aug. 14, when a two-story home takes a tumble for science. A crane will pull apart roof and wall segments to demonstrate the differences in strength that can be achieved by using different construction details and procedures. Engineering standbys, such as vacuum chambers and pressure transducers, will be used, but researchers will also expand the scientific arsenal to include airbags exploding against windows and air-borne debris (ie, 2x4’s) pounding walls, shutters and saferooms at speeds of 100 mph. Additional homes may be tested in late September. The project is a partnership between Clemson, Horry County, the South Carolina Department of Insurance, the Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), the Horry-Georgetown Homebuilders Association and local building officials from Horry County, Conway and Myrtle Beach. Retrofits under study include the effectiveness of adding screws or ring-shank nails as a supplement to the existing nailing pattern on news roofs; using adhesives applied from the attic space on existing roofs; bracing gable roof ends to prevent the failure; installing hurricane straps or retrofit brackets to strengthen the roof-wall connection; using structural ties to improve anchorage of porch roofs or substantial overhangs. Results of the tests will be compiled by Thanksgiving. Clemson has one of the nation's top research facilities to study and mediate the effects of high winds on low-rise structures such as homes and schools. The nearly $84,000 project will provide more accurate estimates of retrofit costs and the potential benefits of such measures, said Jeff Sciaudone, associate director of engineering for the Institute for Business & Home Safety. The IBHS is an initiative of the insurance industry to reduce deaths, injuries, property damage, economic losses and human suffering caused by natural disasters. "This information is essential for homeowners wanting to determine whether the expense and disruption of the remedial measures are worth the investment,” said Sciaudone. For Horry County, hurt by Hurricane Floyd in September 1999, the project is an opportunity to take back a little of what Floyd took away. "The county lost millions of dollars. But projects like this will help make us better prepared for the next hurricane," said Paul Whitten, director of public safety for Horry County. The test homes are among the 29 homes bought as part of FEMA's repetitive flood buyout program in Horry County. The retrofitting and testing will take place this summer. The land must be returned to an open, undeveloped state in the fall of 2001 to meet the requirements of the FEMA buyout program.
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August 3, 2001 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/08/010803083644.htm | Virtual Hurricanes: Computer Model Pushes The Frontier | In a key step toward improving hurricane prediction, scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., have reproduced in a computer model the fine- scale structure that drives the birth and strengthening of tropical cyclones. NCAR's primary sponsor is the National Science Foundation (NSF), which also funded the research. NCAR scientists Jordan Powers and Christopher Davis are presenting imagery from their hurricane simulation this week in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, at the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes, sponsored by the American Meteorological Society. | The simulation, which used the NCAR/Penn State (University) Mesoscale Model, Version 5 (MM5), marks the first time a cloud-resolving simulation has been able to reproduce the formation of a tropical cyclone, given only information about atmospheric conditions on a scale much larger than that of the cyclone. The breakthrough points toward future forecasting power that will soon be available. NCAR is part of a team now building a model similar to the MM5, but with more advanced capabilities, that will generate daily weather forecasts for the National Weather Service (NWS) beginning in 2004."Improved skill in forecasting in a research setting often does not quickly find its way into operational forecast models," says Cliff Jacobs, program director in NSF's division of atmospheric sciences. "This research has the best of all possible results: improved forecasting techniques that developed as a result of an investment in research, that likely will quickly make their way into operational models."For their MM5 experiment, Davis and Powers studied Hurricane Diana, which struck North Carolina in 1984. Diana was chosen because of ample surface data and because a well-defined nontropical low preceded its formation. The MM5 successfully reproduced several stages in Diana's development, from its original state as a nontropical low to its intensification to hurricane status more than a day later.According to Davis, "One of the remaining mysteries about hurricanes is how they form, especially when they're influenced by midlatitude weather systems that move into the subtropics and tropics. We hope that by analyzing the mechanisms behind storm formation in these simulations, we can make hypotheses of tropical cyclone formation that can be tested using aircraft, radar, and satellite data. We also hope to understand what's needed to predict storm formation in operational weather forecast models."Computer models used for day-to-day weather prediction have become increasingly adept at projecting a hurricane's motion. Yet even the best models have little skill in predicting intensity, especially the rapid strengthening often noted in the most powerful hurricanes. Part of the problem is that the compact core of a hurricane, including the spiral bands of showers and thunderstorms that gather and focus energy, can’t be modeled in sufficient detail on the computers and models used for everyday forecasting.The new Weather Research and Forecasting Model and more powerful computers will allow for the type of fine-scale detail in the MM5 to be simulated for daily forecasting. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the University of Oklahoma, and the U.S. Air Force are collaborating with NCAR on the project."Diana" images available at: ftp://ftp.ucar.edu/communications
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July 13, 2001 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/07/010712081100.htm | Study Shows Top Predator Makes Prey Population Vulnerable In Catastrophe | Darwin himself didn't quite state it this way, but it must have crossed his mind that "when the cat's away, the mice will play." Now, biologists at the University of California, Davis, and Washington University in St. Louis have completed a unique study of lizard populations on tiny islands in the Bahamas that shows what happens when a natural catastrophe devastates both the cats and the mice. | On islands devoid of cats, the mice rebound more quickly. Thomas W. Schoener, Ph.D., and David A. Spiller, of the University of California, Davis, and Jonathan B. Losos, Ph.D., professor of biology at Washington University in St. Louis were studying the effects of a large predator lizard species, the curly-tailed lizard, on both its prey, a smaller species called the brown anole, and on the entire food chain on 12 baseball-diamond sized islands in the northern Bahamas. Hurricane Floyd struck the area in the fall of 1999, drastically changing the experiment. In 1997, just months after introducing the large predatory lizard, Leiocephalus carinatus, to islands on which the smaller lizard, Anolis sagrei, lived, the biologists had been stunned to find that anole populations were just half those on six other islands where the curly-tailed lizard did not exist; this difference presumably was a result of the much larger species eating the smaller one. In late 1999, two months after the hurricane, the researchers found that anole populations on the six islands with the predator were much more greatly reduced from pre-hurricane levels than were no-predator control islands. One year later, the control populations had all returned to their pre-hurricane numbers, but most of the populations on the predator-present islands had failed to recover and several were extinct. "The study shows dramatically that the presence of a top predator on an island affects the vulnerability of a prey population to a catastrophic event," says Losos. "The study is rare because it integrates two areas of ecological research: one studies the effect that rare catastrophic events have in determining the structure of a community; the other examines the effect of a predator on lower levels of the food chain." The study was published in the July 5, 2001 issue of Nature. The work was supported by the National Science Foundation. Amazing to the researchers was the fact that there was any survival at all on the islands. Hurricane Floyd was a Category IV hurricane with maximum winds greater than 150 miles per hour that blew lizards off the islands or immersed them in a ten feet wall of water. A previous study by the same authors, published in Science in 1998, had shown that a catastrophic hurricane could exterminate lizard populations. When they returned to the islands this time a month after Hurricane Floyd has passed, they expected to find the same result. Much to their surprise, not only were the populations not extinct, but all of the survivors were baby lizards that must have hatched since the hurricane. They surmised that, as with the previous hurricane, although all lizards present on the island were swept away or drowned, lizard eggs must have been able to survive the hurricane and give rise to a next generation. "l don't think anyone would have predicted that lizard eggs could survive immersion in saltwater for six hours," says Losos, who has duplicated the salty conditions in the laboratory and has found that eggs less than ten days old hatch well when put in salt water for that long. The researchers have three possible explanations for the greater number of lizards on islands on which the predators were not present. One, on islands with the predator, the populations of the prey species already were significantly declining before the hurricane, making extinction easier. Moreover, surviving curly-tailed lizards could have further reduced the anole populations after the hurricane. However, this explanation does not seem adequate because not all predator islands had curly-tailed lizards after the hurricane. Moreover, on those islands on which curly-tails were still found, the survivors were, like the anoles, hatchlings. Although curly-tailed lizard hatchlings are larger than anole hatchlings, they probably are not large enough to eat other lizards. So, continued predation by curly tails after the hurricane probably does not explain the difference between the predator and no-predator islands. A second explanation is that the anoles, forced off the ground and into the bush by the rampaging curly-tailed lizards, may have deposited their eggs in less secure places, such as trees rather than rock holes or other more protected sites. This would make the eggs deposited more vulnerable to hurricane winds and water. The third explanation suggests that,because the anoles were forced to shift their habitat, moving far up into the bushes to avoid the curly tails, they may have had reduced hunting success or mating opportunities so that in the presence of the predator, they were producing fewer eggs, which in turn would result in fewer potential hurricane survivors. "We have three hypotheses, but it's not clear if any one alone explains what happened," says Losos. "We speculate that the presence of a predator, besides reducing the population, also changes the ecology in such a way that the the anole populations are more vulnerable to a natural catastrophe, but we still don't know what is the exact causal mechanism." Losos says that the three biologists will continue to monitor the islands and hope to restart the experiment in the spring of 2003. The intent is to study how the anole lizards adapt to the new habitats they must occupy in the presence of curly-tails.
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May 25, 2001 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/05/010525072300.htm | Researchers Test Breakaway Walls For Coastal Homes, Buildings | Floyd, Fran and Bertha -- they’re meaningful names to people who live along North Carolina’s coast and face the potential for devastating damage to their homes and businesses every hurricane season. | Nothing can prevent a storm from hitting, but a team of North Carolina State University researchers is testing new designs for "breakaway walls" that could reduce damage to homes and buildings should a hurricane make landfall. Their findings are included in the most recent edition of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Coastal Construction Manual. Breakaway walls are designed for use on the ground floor of buildings in coastal flood zones. To minimize damage from storm surges, the National Flood Insurance Program suggests that these homes and businesses be built on pilings, or "stilts," and that the ground floor be used only for access, parking or storage. Property owners who choose to enclose this space are urged to use walls that will break away from the rest of the house when pressure exerted on them by a storm surge reaches a predetermined stress load -- usually between 10 and 20 pounds per square foot. Stronger walls would absorb the force of the surging water, jeopardizing the integrity of the entire foundation.To determine what materials and designs will work best for breakaway walls, a trio of NC State researchers tested eight experimental wall prototypes. The researchers are Dr. C.C. Tung, professor emeritus of civil engineering; Spencer M. Rogers Jr., senior coastal engineering specialist with North Carolina Sea Grant and an adjunct civil engineering faculty member; and Dr. Bohumil Kasal, associate professor of wood and paper science. Each 8 x 8-foot wood-wall prototype was tested in simulated hurricane storm surge conditions at a wave tank testing facility at Oregon State University in Corvallis, Ore. The researchers placed the prototypes into the tank, which measures 342 feet long, 12 feet wide and 15 feet deep, and directed increasingly strong waves and rising water levels at them until they broke apart. Due to the size and depth of the tank, the researchers were able to test when and how the walls would fail in hurricane-force breaking waves, which exert an exceedingly high-pressure burst against walls as they crest. Based on their findings, the researchers developed practical guidelines for builders to follow, such as using exterior siding no thicker than ½-inch plywood or equivalent material; using studs no bigger than 2x4s for breakaway walls; and placing the studs at least 24 inches or more apart. A FEMA technical bulletin containing the full results from the NC State-Oregon State research study on breakaway walls is on the Web at http://www.fema.gov/MIT/job15.pdf. The research was funded by the National Science Foundation and FEMA.Next, the NC State trio would like to test unreinforced hollow-cell masonry walls -- also known as cinder block walls. Because they sink, hollow cinder blocks have the advantage of not becoming large, floating debris after a hurricane, making cleanup easier and reducing potential damage to surrounding buildings. However, testing cinder block walls is more difficult than testing wood walls, because of long cure times for the mortar and the potential of damage to the wave tank itself. FEMA’s Coastal Construction Manual is available on a CD-ROM with interactive links for calculations, cross-references and other useful Web sites. The CD-ROM and a printed version of the manual -- which fills three binders -- are available from the FEMA Publications Service Center at (800) 480-2520. There is no charge for single copies.
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December 20, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/12/001219075028.htm | Texas A&M To Unveil New Mobile Radar System To Track Tornadoes, Measure Hurricane Winds | How fast is a hurricane usually blowing when it makes landfall? Researchers still don't know for sure. Current wind speeds for hurricanes over land are estimates based on the damage they leave in their path. But all that will change this April, when Texas A&M University unveils its new mobile radar system, SMART-R. | "SMART-R stands for Shared Mobile Atmosphere Research and Teaching Radar," said Michael Biggerstaff, an atmospheric sciences professor in Texas A&M's College of Geosciences. "The project involves building two Doppler radars, each on its own 33 foot long trailer. The entire rig -- trailer, pedestal and radar dish -- will stand 14 feet high, and the antenna dishes themselves will be eight feet in diameter. "The large antenna will focus more energy for better resolution, allowing us to detect smaller storms, like tornadoes," he observed. "If they were any larger, however, they couldn't go down the road, and the whole driving force behind SMART-R is that it's mobile." A joint project of Texas A&M, Texas Tech University, the University of Oklahoma, and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), the dishes are being built in the basement of the geosciences building on the Texas A&M campus, while the NSSL is outfitting the trailers at its headquarters in Norman, Okla. Both trailers and mounting pedestals must be specially designed to be strong enough to withstand the tremendous loads generated by high winds hitting the big dishes. "In March, we'll use a crane to hoist the dishes out of our basement and mount them on the trailers," Biggerstaff said. "Once we've got the dishes on the trucks, we'll take them down to Florida during August and September -- peak hurricane season -- for their first major field test." Although SMART-R is especially designed to image the precipitation and winds that occur within any strong storm, including tornadoes, microburst, and horizontal windstorms, Biggerstaff says its real advantage will be in allowing researchers to track hurricanes once they hit land. "Tornadic storms have been well studied," he said. "And when hurricanes are over water, chase planes equipped with Doppler radar can fly into them and take wind speed and other measurements. But once a hurricane hits land, it spawns multiple tornadoes, making conditions too dangerous for weather planes to fly in." SMART-R can be placed off to the side of the hurricane's initial landfall zone, as much as 50 to 100 miles away, and measure at a distance the hurricane's wind field over a broad area. Computers mounted in the cabs of the mobile radar trucks will contain software to analyze and archive the radar data. "More people die from the inland floods that accompany hurricanes than from the winds themselves," Biggerstaff said. "SMART-R will enable us to track the evolution of hurricane's changing wind patterns and predict how much rain to expect." "We'll be able to deploy the SMART-R rigs with only three days advance notice, from Texas to South Carolina," he observed. "The mobility of having the radar dishes on trucks will make such quick response possible." The Gulf Coast has suffered hurricane and tornado damage on many occasions, such as on June 17, 1997, when 190,000 Houston homes lost power due to severe straight-line winds on that day. "On that occasion, the storms were small and evolved rapidly," Biggerstaff said. "There weren't enough radars close enough together to allow us to make accurate predictions. SMART-R, with its rapid deployment, will allow us to connect enough data to make better forecasts and warn people earlier of approaching storm danger." Older technology, such as cars equipped with sensors to measure winds and barometric pressure and weather balloons released from vans, did not give meteorologists enough information to accurately predict when high winds would occur on the surface of the ground. Old algorithms generated up to an 80 percent false alarm rate, with only a 40 percent prediction success, Biggerstaff said. "The dishes we're building are basically modifications of surplus radar apparatus from the National Weather Service," he observed. "Three years ago we went to Lubbock, Texas, and Meridian, Miss., and dismantled old dishes and brought them here. Jerry Guynes, senior engineer for the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, and Rick O'Neill, a machinist for the Department of Oceanography, have been creating modifications from raw metal to make SMART-R a reality." "There have been radars on trucks before," Biggerstaff said. "But no one has gone to so much trouble to make them as rugged as SMART-R will be."
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November 7, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/11/001106055427.htm | NASA Instrument Provides New Tools For Atmospheric Studies | Scientists have developed new methods of retrieving information about cloud heights, winds, airborne particles, and Earth's surface using data from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument orbiting on NASA's Terra satellite. | MISR acquires images of the Earth at nine angles simultaneously, using nine separate cameras pointed forward, downward, and backward along its flight path. Examples of images and atmospheric information that MISR can provide are available at http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/pictures/misr/ . The first example gives three views of Hurricane Debby. One shows the storm's eastern edge as seen by the instrument's downward-looking camera. The others display cloud heights and motions generated by taking advantage of the instrument's multi- angle stereoscopic imaging capability. The second example illustrates how MISR can detect and measure the abundance of particles, including pollution, in the atmosphere. The downward-looking view of the Appalachian Mountains looks clear, while another image, from a camera viewing at a large slant angle, reveals a thin layer of haze. The third panel is a map of the amount of airborne particulates derived from the images. These demonstrations are based upon samples of MISR's advanced data products. The samples and MISR camera image data are available to the public though the Atmospheric Sciences Data Center (ASDC) at NASA's Langley Research Center, Hampton, Va., http://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/ . MISR, built and managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is one of several Earth-observing experiments aboard Terra, which was launched in December 1999. The MISR science team includes members in the United States, England, and Italy. More information about MISR is available at: http://www-misr.jpl.nasa.gov . JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.
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October 11, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/10/001006154052.htm | Extreme Weather On The Rise As Greenhouse Gases Drive Climate | BOULDER -- Expect hotter days, warmer nights, heavier rain and snowfallevents, and more floods over the next century, says a new studypublished September 22 in the journal Science. The article reviewsobservations, impacts, and results from some 20 global climate modelscurrently in use worldwide. It sizes up extreme events that haveintensified during the past century and are expected to escalate overthe next as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases shake up theearth's climate. The paper's lead authors are David Easterling ofNOAA's National Climatic Data Center and Gerald Meehl, a climateexpert at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). | "A climate model is like a huge wok with a lot of stir-fryingredients," says Meehl. "We throw in solar variability, ozonechanges, greenhouse gases, and many other items in the form ofequations. If the model's past climate matches fairly well what'salready happened in the real world, we get some confidence in therecipe." Meehl's research was funded by the U.S. Department of Energyand the National Science Foundation. NCAR's primary sponsor is theNational Science Foundation.The earth's average temperature has risen about 0.6 degree Celsius(1.1 degree Fahrenheit) since the start of the 20th century. Thetrend is most obvious in higher daily minimum temperatures. Duringthe same period precipitation has increased over land in the mid- tohigh latitudes and decreased in the tropics. These two temperatureand precipitation trends together can lead to changes in extremeweather, say the scientists.Some changes have already been observed over the last century and areexpected to escalate. These include an increase in very hot days insome areas, higher minimum temperatures with fewer frost days, andheavier short-term rainfall (lasting one or several days), especiallyin the midlatitudes. In the United States, incidents of heavyrainfall over several days increased most noticeably in the southernMississippi River Valley, Southwest, Midwest, and Great Lakes.Other changes are expected to appear later in this century asgreenhouse gases continue to accumulate, trapping more heat in theatmosphere. Among them is a worldwide drying out of midcontinentalareas during summer, with an increased chance of drought. Enhancedevaporation and higher temperatures would eventually outweighprecipitation increases in those inland areas. In North America, thecentral and southeast regions will get the hottest and driest, withthe West Coast probably less affected because of its heavier rainfalland more moist soil.There is no consensus yet on future trends for El Nino, hurricanes,and midlatitude storms. Scientists have recently embedded fine-scaleregional models into global climate models to predict trends inhurricane number, intensity, and track shifts. Early results show atendency for a future increase in hurricane intensity. Scientistsexpect this technique to yield better estimates in the future asmodel resolution improves.Some models show slightly warmer El Ninos in the future, but a moreconsistent result is a trend toward a generally warmer ocean surfacein the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, says Meehl. Future ElNinos would then be superimposed on a warmer surface, bringing evenheavier rainfall to the central and eastern Pacific and lighterrainfall over Southeast Asia than occurred during the 1997 El Nino.But results vary from model to model and the jury is still out on thefuture of El Nino.Growth in both population and wealth, along with demographic shiftsto storm-prone areas, has made the United States more vulnerable toweather assaults. Total federal relief payments for weather-causeddisasters from 1990 through 1997 hit $12 billion. Costs are expectedto soar if extreme weather intensifies over the next century.Researchers studying wild plants and animals have documented climate-induced extinctions, shifts in species range, and other seasonalbehavior changes. Some gradual biological changes may be responses tochanges in extreme weather and climate events.
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September 12, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/09/000912070108.htm | Tropical Depressions Can't Hide Behind Clouds Anymore | Tropical storms churning into potentially dangerous hurricanes often hide behind a cloak of clouds. But NASA has given forecasters a new way to peek under the covers and identify storms much faster. | Scientists traditionally rely on satellite pictures to study the telltale swirl of clouds of a forming storm. However, the SeaWinds instrument aboard the QuikSCAT satellite can look through the cloud cover and measure winds at the ocean's surface. According to a new study by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA researchers expected to be published in a major scientific journal, SeaWinds can detect the closed circle of winds that characterize a tropical depression up to 46 hours sooner than conventional means. "The SeaWinds data can help us in two ways," says paper author Kristina Katsaros, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, Fla. "They can detect tropical depressions early and help us improve our models. With more accurate information on the surface wind speed and direction in hurricanes at all stages, our models can do a better job of predicting a hurricane's evolution and course." QuikSCAT was launched in June 1999. It travels over ninety percent of the ice-free oceans every day with a high-frequency microwave scatterometer that provides detailed information on sea surfaces that can be translated into wind speed and direction. In their NASA-supported study, Katsaros and her colleagues looked at SeaWinds data from the regions where 12 of the named storms in the 1999 hurricane season formed. Eight of the storms eventually developed into hurricanes. The researchers then examined the data collected 12 to 48 hours in advance of the storms being declared tropical depressions. While the SeaWinds instrument wasn't always upstream of all 12 storms, it was in position to provide wind data on eight. In those cases, it was able to detect the closed wind circulation well before it could be seen as cloud swirls on the GOES satellite image. The lead times ranged from three hours for Hurricane Irene to 46 hours for Hurricane Lenny. Being able to detect tropical depressions early is especially important in increasing warning times in regions like the Gulf of Mexico, where storms can grow quickly into hurricanes and can make landfall within a few days. Early detection also may help the National Hurricane Center plan the best use of its resources to keep watch on developing storms. "The ability of SeaWinds to see tropical depressions at their earliest stage gives us the opportunity to identify and study the elements that create hurricanes," says co-author W. Timothy Liu, the project scientist of SeaWinds at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, Calif. JPL built and operates the QuikSCAT spacecraft for the Office of Earth Sciences, NASA Headquarters, Washington, D.C. During the current hurricane season, scientists from the National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division are comparing SeaWinds data with wind information from computer models, reconnaissance aircraft, satellites, and devices that measure temperature, moisture and relative humidity. In a separate study, Liu combined SeaWinds data on winds with information from another instrument, the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM), which can also can see through clouds and measure rainfall in hurricanes. "Hurricanes are especially devastating when they are accompanied by strong winds and heavy rain," says Liu. "QuickSCAT and TRMM provide the only opportunity for us to view the interplay between wind and rain before landfall and help us to understand and predict hurricanes." The results of this study appeared in the June 6 issue of Eos, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union. "This year the QuikSCAT data will be incorporated into a surface-wind analysis system of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division to produce the surface windfields in tropical storms in near real time," says Kastaros. "This will help the National Hurricane Center in making decisions about warning the public when a storm threatens landfall." QuikSCAT data are available from NOAA's National Environmental Satellite and Information Service on the Internet at Managed for NASA, JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.
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August 24, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/08/000824082159.htm | Super Typhoon Bilis Hurls Rain And Wind | As super Typhoon Bilis, equal in strength to a category 5 hurricane, bears down on Taiwan, images taken by two NASA instruments on August 21, 2000, show the massive storm's most devastating components: rain and wind. | The images are available at: Conventional satellite data provide imagery of the clouds at the top of a storm. These images, however, were created by combining data from two NASA instruments capable of looking through a storm's clouds and seeing what is going on at the surface. These two instruments passed over the same location about one hour apart. The images show the surface winds, measured by SeaWinds on QuikSCAT's radar scatterometer. The wind data are superimposed on rainfall measurements made by the microwave imager on the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM). QuikSCAT, launched in June 1999, and TRMM, launched 18 months earlier, provide scientists the opportunity to observe both wind and rain before a storm makes landfall. More information about SeaWinds is available at: More information about TRMM is available at: The SeaWinds on QuikSCAT project is managed for NASA's Earth Science Enterprise by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. TRMM is a joint US/Japanese mission managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD.
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August 23, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/08/000823082434.htm | Fire And Rain: NASA Satellite Sees Signs Of Nature's Fury | Forest fires rage in Montana while on the same day Hurricane Hector swirls in the Pacific, and a NASA satellite is an eyewitness to both. A pair of images is now on-line showing these two unrelated, large-scale examples of nature's fury captured by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) during a single orbit of NASA's Terra satellite on August 14, 2000. The images are available at: | In the left image, huge smoke plumes rise from devastating wildfires in the Bitterroot Mountain Range near the Montana-Idaho border. Flathead Lake is near the upper left, and the Great Salt Lake is at the bottom right. Smoke accumulating in the canyons and plains is also visible. This image was generated from the MISR camera that looks forward at a steep angle (60 degrees); the instrument has nine different cameras viewing Earth at different angles. The smoke is far more visible when seen at this highly oblique angle than it would be in a conventional, straight- downward (nadir) view. The wide extent of the smoke is evident from comparison with the image on the right, a view of Hurricane Hector acquired from MISR's nadir-viewing camera. Both images show an area of approximately 400 kilometers (250 miles) in width and about 850 kilometers (530 miles) in length. When this image of Hector was taken, the eastern Pacific tropical cyclone was located approximately 1,100 kilometers (680 miles) west of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. The eye is faintly visible and measures 25 kilometers (16 miles) in diameter. The storm was beginning to weaken, and 24 hours later the National Weather Service downgraded Hector from a hurricane to a tropical storm. MISR, built and managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is one of several Earth-observing instruments aboard Terra, which was launched in December 1999. More information about MISR is available at: JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.
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July 12, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/07/000712075010.htm | UMass Hurricane Hunters Flying Into The Eye Of The Storm | <b>Real-time information helps predict hurricanes' paths, intensities</b> | AMHERST, Mass. - University of Massachusetts hurricane hunter Jim Carswell will be flying into the eyes of hurricanes again this year, using high-tech weather sensors developed at UMass. These sensors help predict the path and intensity of the storms. Scientists expect this hurricane season, which runs from now until Oct. 31, to be "above average," with at least three severe hurricanes. Graduate student Tony Castells is already in Miami, installing the instruments in the aircraft; Carswell will join him in early August, when the bigger storms are expected to begin brewing. The UMass team is responsible for sending real-time data to the National Hurricane Center. This information is used to establish landfall warnings and intensity reports. Pinpoint forecasts give people in threatened areas time to protect their property and evacuate to safety, according to Carswell. "We do research that has an immediate positive impact on people's safety," said Carswell. "That's a pretty neat experience." Flying through the wall of a hurricane "feels like riding a spinning carnival ride, mounted on a roller-coaster," said Carswell, an engineer with the University's Microwave Remote Sensing Laboratory (MIRSL). Satellite images offer an idea of a storm's location and intensity, Carswell said. But it takes reconnaissance flights to get the more precise information that is critical to forecasting the storm's path. Missions last about 10 hours, and entail anywhere from five to more than 15 passes through a storm's eye, in a cross-shaped pattern, in a P-3 airplane equipped to withstand winds whipping up to 180 miles an hour. The remote sensors are designed and constructed by researchers at the UMass lab, part of the department of electrical and computer systems engineering. A specially modified radar "looks" at the water surface, as well as the rain, to determine the storm's wind speed and wind direction. Scientists are also interested in determining how much water is in a storm system, since flooding can cause more damage than wind - as Hurricane Floyd demonstrated last year. This is Carswell's fourth season as a hurricane hunter, and the ninth year UMass has been involved in such reconnaissance missions. He flies along with researchers from the Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft Operations Center.
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May 12, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/05/000512083928.htm | USGS Measures A Century Of Floods | When there is a flood, the U.S. Geological Survey is usually there to measure it. The USGS has measured floods and supplied streamflow data to the nation for more than 110 years and now has released a new fact sheet listing the most significant floods of the 20th century. | During the 20th century, floods were the number-one disaster in the United States in terms of lives lost and property damage, according to the new fact sheet by the USGS. Flooding has caused the deaths of more than 10,000 people since 1900. Property damage from flooding now totals over $1 billion each year in the United States. The fact sheet discusses 32 significant floods that occurred during the 20th century. The floods were determined to be significant based on a combination of factors including lives lost, and total damage and are broken down into six types of floods: large regional flooding, flash floods, storm surge floods, ice-jam floods, dam and levee failure and mudflow floods. “The USGS routinely makes many direct measurements during floods and after floods subside,” said USGS research hydrologist and fact sheet author Charles Perry. “We based this new fact sheet on more than 110 years of data that the USGS has collected.”The century’s deadliest flood occurred in Galveston, Texas, during a September 1900 Hurricane. As the superstorm rolled ashore along the Gulf Coast, more than 6,000 persons lost their lives in the monster hurricane’s storm surge and wind. Ninety percent of the people killed in hurricanes drown as flood waters rise quickly from the storm surge and heavy rains.Flash floods from intense thunderstorms are also deadly. In June 1972, 237 persons lost their lives along Rapid Creek during the Rapid City S.D. flood. Four years later in July 1976, 144 persons were killed by flash floods on the Big Thompson and Cache la Poudre Rivers in Colorado.Nationwide, half of all flash flood deaths are related to automobiles. The fact sheet diagrams the usually fatal consequence of driving through floodwaters. “Water only one foot deep flowing over a road can exert more than 500 pounds of lateral force, which sweeps an automobile into the much deeper water along the roadside,” Perry said.Floods are also the most costly of all natural disasters in the United States. In the spring and summer of 1993, long periods of excessive rainfall in the upper Mississippi River Basin flooded nine states, killed 48 people and resulted in record losses of more than $20 billion -- about half of these damages were to residences, businesses, public facilities, and transportation facilities. More than 55,000 homes were damaged or destroyed and 532 counties received federal disaster aid.The USGS maintains more than 7,000 gaging stations throughout the United States, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to monitor streamflow. Real-time streamflow information for most of these stations can be accessed through the World Wide Web, providing flood warning for those in harm’s way. These gages can also be connected directly to warning devices in flash-flood prone areas. All streamflow information is provided by the USGS to various federal, state and local cooperating agencies as well as the general public. The information is available at Copies of Fact Sheet 024–00, “Significant Floods in the United States During the 20th Century—USGS Measures a Century of Floods,” by Charles A. Perry, are available from the USGS, Information Services, Box 25286, Federal Center, Denver, CO 80225–0286, or call 1– 888–ASK–USGS. The fact sheet may be viewed on the Web at: As the nation’s largest water, earth and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the USGS works in cooperation with more than 2,000 organizations across the country to provide reliable, impartial, scientific information to resource managers, planners, and other customers. This information is gathered in every state by USGS scientists to minimize the loss of life and property from natural disasters, to contribute to the conservation and the sound economic and physical development of the nation’s natural resources, and to enhance the quality of life by monitoring water, biological, energy, and mineral resources.
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May 8, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/05/000508083230.htm | NASA Spacecraft Data Improves Tropical Forecasts | A microwave imager onboard a NASA spacecraft can help improve the forecasts of hurricanes, severe storms, and monitor long-term climate by seeing through clouds, new research shows. | The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) represents the first microwave spacecraft sensor capable of accurately measuring sea-surface temperatures through clouds. These findings were reported today in the Journal Science, by Frank Wentz and colleagues at Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA, who also are TRMM Science Team members.Science team members have found that data from the TRMM Microwave Imaging (TMI) sensor onboard the spacecraft has great potential to increase the accuracy of tropical storm and climate forecasts. Microwave radiation penetrates clouds with little loss of signal thereby providing an uninterrupted view of the ocean surface whereas much of the infrared radiation, typically used for measuring sea-surface temperatures from satellites, are blocked by cloud cover. "The microwave imager can give consistent readings of sea-surface temperatures even through clouds," said Wentz, director of Remote Sensing Systems. "To date we’ve been limited by infrared sensors. Having the complete picture of ocean surface temperatures should greatly improve numerical models being run by the National Weather Service."After a long wait the satellite technology for measuring the ocean's temperature through clouds is now operational," said Wentz. "We expect that this new satellite capability will have a major impact on ocean sciences and storm forecasting."The first microwave radiometers operating at low frequencies were flown on the SeaSat and Nimbus-7 missions launched in 1978. Those instruments demonstrated the feasibility of measuring sea-surface temperatures with microwaves. The usefulness of these early radiometers were constrained by a limited calibration system. Though subsequent microwave radiometers, such as the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) have improved calibration systems, they still lacked the low frequency channels needed to accurately retrieve sea-surface temperatures.Sea-surface temperature play a fundamental role in the exchange of energy, momentum, and moisture between the ocean and the atmosphere and is a central factor of air-sea interactions and climate variability. A better understanding of air-sea dynamics will translate into better weather forecasting."Better sea-surface temperature readings will help the models determine if the storms will gain strength," said Max Mayfield, acting director, National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL. "Warm tropical waters are a fuel for hurricanes and other storms -- helping them grow in intensity."This is particularly important when it comes to the forecasting of El Niño and La Niña, which have a profound effect on the world’s climate, and are a dramatic manifestation of the coupling of sea-surface temperature and atmospheric circulation.TRMM has produced continuous data since December 1997. Tropical rainfall, which typically falls between 35 degrees north latitude and 35 degrees south latitude, comprises more than two-thirds of the rainfall on Earth. TRMM is NASA’s first mission dedicated to observing and understanding tropical rainfall and how it affects the global climate.In the future, this all weather capability to observe sea-surface temperature will continue from the NASA Earth Observing satellite called "Aqua," which is scheduled for launch late this year.TRMM is a joint U.S.-Japanese mission and part of NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise, a long-term research program designed to study the Earth's land, oceans, air, ice and life as a total system. Information and images are available at URLs: | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,000 |
April 19, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/04/000419073928.htm | NOAA, NASA To Launch Latest Eye-In-The-Sky Weather Spacecraft | An advanced U.S. weather spacecraft, which will monitor hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, flash floods and other severe weather, is beingprepared for launch May 3 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Liftoff of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, GOES-L, istargeted to occur at 2:27 a.m. EDT from Pad A at Complex 36 on Cape Canaveral. | "GOES satellites are a mainstay of weather forecasting in the United States," said Gerry Dittberner, NOAA's GOES program manager. "They arethe backbone of short-term forecasting, or nowcasting. GOES images of clouds are well-known to all Americans; the images can be seen ontelevision weather broadcasts every day."The real-time weather data gathered by GOES satellites, combined with data from Doppler radars and automated surface observing systems,greatly aids weather forecasters in providing better warnings of severe weather. These warnings help to save lives, preserve property, and benefitcommercial interests. For example, in 1999, NOAA's National Weather Service had an average lead time of 11.6 minutes for tornado warningsand an average lead time of 41 minutes for flash floods."NASA is excited about providing another fine tool for the National Weather Service to use for weather operations," said Martin A. Davis,NASA’s GOES program manager at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. The launch of the GOES-L is the continuation ofa 25-year joint program between NASA and NOAA.The United States operates two meteorological satellites in geostationary orbit 22,300 miles over the Equator, one over the East Coast and one overthe West Coast. NOAA GOES-10, launched in 1997, is currently overlooking the West Coast out into the Pacific including Hawaii; it is located at135 degrees West longitude. NOAA GOES-8, launched in April 1994, is overlooking the East Coast out into the Atlantic Ocean and is positionedat 75 degrees West.NOAA GOES-L will be stored on orbit ready for operation when needed as a replacement for GOES-8 or -10. "NOAA GOES-L will ensurecontinuity of GOES data from two GOES, especially for the Atlantic hurricane season," Dittberner said. The satellite will be renamed NOAAGOES-11 once reaching geostationary orbit.NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service operates the GOES series of satellites. After the satellites completeon-orbit checkout, NOAA assumes responsibility for command and control, data receipt, and product generation and distribution. The GOESspacecraft are a critical component of the ongoing National Weather Service modernization program, aiding forecasters in providing more preciseand timely forecasts.Goddard manages the design, development and launch of the spacecraft for NOAA. NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida is responsible forgovernment oversight of launch operations and countdown activities. GOES-L, built by Space Systems/Loral, a subsidiary of Loral Space andCommunications Ltd., will be launched on an Atlas IIA rocket, built by Lockheed Martin. The on-board meteorological instruments for GOES-Linclude an imager and a sounder manufactured by ITT Industries Aerospace/Communications Division.The final satellite in the current GOES series will be launched as required to support NOAA's dual-satellite geostationary observing system.GOES information and imagery are available on the World Wide Web at: | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,000 |
April 17, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/04/000417095932.htm | Louisiana Professor Taking The Guesswork Out Of Hurricane-Surge Predictions | When Hurricane Georges was barreling toward Louisiana's coastline in 1998, no one knew how accurate the storm surges predicted by meteorologists would be, LSU professor Gregory Stone said. | Not a comforting thought for the 70 percent of the state's residents who live in coastal zones -- most of which are at or below sea level.But Stone is trying to change all that, hoping to significantly improve the predictive power of computer models through measurement of storm surge and other oceanographic phenomena in the Gulf of Mexico. This hurricane season, with the help of funding from several state and federal agencies, including a recent million-dollar grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Louisiana will be better prepared than ever to monitor hurricane activity in the Gulf.Just two years ago, most of Louisiana's coastline was devoid of any type of accurate ocean-monitoring system, Stone said. Of the 20 federally funded weather buoys located in the Gulf, only one was near Louisiana's coast, leaving a vast gap in ocean-monitoring instrumentation. And the buoys that did exist did not provide any information on storm surge. So when meteorologists predicted the potential storm surge accompanying a hurricane, they were forced to do so without the key offshore information that could make the predictions more accurate. Stone said storm specialists constantly confront problems associated with lack of measurement data. In addition, flood maps used to identify areas of likely inundation by storm surges are not always correct, he said."In 1995, when Hurricane Opal hit Florida, the storm-surge estimates were seriously under-predicted," Stone said. "The experts predicted a surge that was 5 feet less than what actually hit the coast. That difference can mean the inundation of hundreds of square miles, which can impact thousands of people." Stone, who teaches in LSU's Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, has been working to fill the gaps in the Gulf with stationary ocean-observing platforms that measure a wide range of oceanographic and meteorologic conditions, including storm surge and various wave parameters.The program, called WAVCIS -- Wave/Current/Surge Information System -- is the most advanced program of its kind in the U.S., he said. "We're trying to take the guesswork out of potentially dangerous offshore situations," Stone said. In the past two years, Stone and his team from LSU's Coastal Studies Institute have received funding for four new platforms, one of which just went online last month. The stations, which were designed and built by Stone and his team, include instruments attached to oil platforms above and below water and on the floor of the Gulf. The information gathered at these offshore sites is transmitted to computers at LSU's Coastal Studies Institute via a satellite-based cellular telephone network. There, it is examined for quality-control purposes and distributed worldwide via the Internet. The data are also archived at LSU for ongoing research.Added to the data collected from the existing buoys, the information from the new stations will help scientists and emergency-preparedness personnel more accurately predict storm surges and plan voluntary or mandatory evacuations."We now have more offshore information pertaining to waves and currents than we've ever had before," Stone said. "For the coming hurricane season we will be in a better position than ever to assess the early effects of hurricanes as they come into the Gulf. We have crossed a new threshold.""Until now, no one has measured storm surge during large offshore events to the degree that we will. By measuring surge, predictions will be much more accurate," Stone said. "We will soon have instrumentation several hundred miles out into the Gulf. If we start detecting storm surge that far out, we can get a better read on the magnitude of surge closer to shore. The earlier we can get that information to the state's emergency-preparedness personnel, the greater the opportunity to reduce risk to life and property." Stone said that, along with earlier warnings, the new stations will provide information on which areas of the coast would be impacted most by storm surge, winds and waves. Such information could help people prepare and, in turn, could save insurance companies millions of dollars in claims. He also said the stations will provide for improved understanding of oceanographic conditions during all types of weather."We have already learned quite a bit about air-sea interaction this winter with having three stations online around the clock," Stone said. "I am very excited about having detailed information on offshore wave dynamics during big events such as Hurricane Andrew -- a storm that whet our appetites in 1992 for better measurements offshore."Stone said there is a major effort in the U.S. to create an integrated ocean-observing system. Since LSU has partnered with several other institutions, including the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Texas A&M University and various research arms of the U.S. Navy, the university is poised to play a leading role in that effort, Stone said. He also said the infrastructure he is developing offshore will give LSU an advantage over other institutions in obtaining research funding at the national level. Other grants that have helped Stone fund the WAVCIS project came from the state's Oil Spill Research and Development Program, the Louisiana Board of Regents and the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Stone also has grant proposals pending with the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Office of Naval Research.For more information on the WAVCIS program, check the WAVCIS Web site at | Hurricanes Cyclones | 2,000 |
March 30, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/03/000329081843.htm | Researchers Forecast Increased Hurricane Activity And Less Predictability | COLUMBIA, Mo. -- It's that time of year again; weather experts have begun making their Atlantic hurricane season predictions. While it's uncertain how far down the alphabet the storms will go, researchers at the University of Missouri-Columbia indicate that the chance to name a storm Nadine, Oscar or Patty this hurricane season is not out of the question. | According to Anthony Lupo, MU assistant professor of atmospheric sciences, and Grant Johnston, an undergraduate student in atmospheric sciences, long- and short-term changes in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean have an impact on the occurrence and intensity of Atlantic Ocean hurricanes. The researchers examined the variability of hurricane intensity from 1938 to 1999 using data compiled by Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project Archive. They then compared this data with the occurrence of El Nino and La Nina events and the two phases of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), a 50- to 70-year sea surface temperature variation. "The NPO is like a giant, long-lived El Nino," Lupo said. "The first phase, NPO1, is characterized by warmer surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific and lower surface temperatures in the Western Pacific. The second phase, NPO2, exhibits the reverse conditions." Lupo added that although previous research has shown there are fewer hurricanes during an El Nino year than during a La Nina year, few studies have examined how El Nino and La Nina variability affect the intensity of hurricanes. "Our research not only addresses this issue, but superimposes these findings on variability associated with the NPO," he said. After analyzing the 62 years of hurricane data, Lupo and Johnston arrived at the following conclusions: -- Hurricane occurrence and intensity are higher during La Nina years. -- El Nino effects are enhanced by the NPO1, causing fewer and less intense hurricanes during El Nino years. -- El Nino-related variability is not evident during the NPO2 phase. -- In general, hurricane occurrence and intensity has been higher during the NPO2 phase. Scientists believe the NPO now has shifted back into the NPO2 phase. "Because the 2000 season will exhibit the effects of La Nina, we can expect a greater number of hurricanes and a chance for more severe hurricanes," Lupo said. "But due to the influence of the NPO2, this season lacks any predictability." The National Weather Digest has accepted Lupo and Johnston's paper, which is scheduled to be published later this year.
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March 17, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/03/000317051218.htm | Winds In Pacific Climate Cycle Can Foretell Gulf Of Mexico Hurricanes | A short-term climate cycle that builds in the Indian Ocean and moves eastward through the equatorial Pacific Ocean is a key factor in the formation of hurricanes and tropical storms over the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea, University of Washington researchers have found. | The findings relate to westerly winds in the Pacific associated with a cycle called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Data culled from climate and weather records from 1949 through 1997 show that, about 15 days after detection of those winds in the western Pacific, hurricanes and tropical storms are four times more likely to form in the gulf and in the western Caribbean, the scientists said. The area extends from eastern Texas to about the eastern edge of Cuba."If you saw a relatively strong wind burst coming across the western Pacific, you could say that within a couple of weeks you might expect hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico," said Eric Maloney, a UW atmospheric sciences doctoral student. He and Dennis Hartmann, a UW atmospheric sciences professor, report their findings in the March 17 edition of Science.Having advance knowledge that conditions will be favorable for hurricanes to form will give officials and residents of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean islands more time to prepare, and also could prove valuable to shipping interests, the scientists said."You can say maybe a week in advance that there are likely to be hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, but I can't tell you whether they're likely to hit New Orleans or Galveston," Hartmann said.Florida appears to be very vulnerable to such storms, Maloney said. "Florida is much more likely to be hit by a hurricane or tropical storm during westerly events."The Madden-Julian Oscillation repeats every 30 to 60 days. It rises in the Indian Ocean and stays close to the equator as it moves across the Pacific. The leading area of the system typically carries the easterly winds that are predominant in the tropics. The center of the system often contains storm activity, and the westernmost section carries the telltale westerly winds.Maloney and Hartmann examined wind speeds at an altitude of about 4,500 feet. They found that when easterlies averaging 7 or 8 miles per hour were replaced by westerlies of the same strength, the difference of 15 mph or more correlated strongly with increased hurricane formation in the gulf and the western Caribbean. In addition, there are indications that the storms generated are more powerful if the westerlies in the Pacific are stronger. The researchers examined data for June through November, considered the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season, in each of the 48 years included in the study. They found that conditions in the Madden-Julian Oscillation were strong enough to influence hurricanes about one-third of the time. Information from earlier years is sketchier and typically comes from shipping reports. In later years, most of the data were collected by satellite."We originally did the analysis from 1979 to 1997 and the results are exactly the same as for the earlier period," Maloney said.Previously, Maloney found a link between the stronger westerlies and the formation of hurricanes over the eastern Pacific, but there was no indication then that what was happening over the Pacific related to storm formation in the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean."The topography of Mexico is high, which is why at first we just looked at the Eastern Pacific," Hartmann said. "It was only later that Eric looked at the Gulf of Mexico and found the signal was just as strong, which was a surprise."The research was paid for by a grant from the National Science Foundation.The two plan further research into how the topography of Mexico and Central America interacts with the weather systems, and to better understand the relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and hurricanes near the Americas. They also plan to look for similar links to storms forming in the central Atlantic.
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March 3, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/03/000303080452.htm | What Are The Chances Of The U.S. Being Hit By A Catastrophic Hurricane? LSU Professor Takes A New Field Of Hurricane Research By Storm | BATON ROUGE -- If you thought 1992's Hurricane Andrew was devastating, you haven't seen anything yet, LSU researcher Kam-biu Liu said. | Liu's latest study provides concrete information about the probability of catastrophic hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. and shows that the hurricane activity of the most recent millennium has been mild, both in frequency and intensity of storms. The chances of a catastrophic hurricane hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast are about once every 300-600 years, the study shows. The findings provide a specific number range for the first time, answering what Liu calls the "$30 billion question" asked by insurance companies and home owners about the probability of U.S. hurricane landfalls. Liu said Hurricane Andrew, a category 4 storm, caused $30 billion in damage. Liu presented his findings Feb. 19 at a hurricane symposium that is part of the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. The 2000 meeting was held Feb. 17-22 in Washington, D.C. Liu, LSU's James J. Parsons Professor of Geography, is one of nine leading hurricane experts who spoke during the day-long symposium titled "Frontiers in Hurricane Climate Research." He delivered his presentation, "Paleotempestology: Reconstruction of Past Hurricane Landfalls from Sedimentary Proxy Records," during the morning session and will serve as chair of the afternoon session. Liu is also an organizer of the symposium. By examining sediment in coastal lakes and marshes along the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean, Liu has been able to reconstruct the frequency and intensity of hurricane landfalls dating back some 5,000 years. This cutting-edge field of research is known as paleotempestology, or the science of studying storm activities of the past. It is a relatively new field of study, and Liu is taking it by storm. "Our records of hurricanes only go back about 150 years, and that is a short time to observe these storms and to predict the probability of being hit by a catastrophic hurricane," Liu said. "Hurricane Camille in 1969 is the only category 5 hurricane that hit the U.S. mainland during that time. We need to look back longer to put the present climate into perspective. If we don't look far enough back in the past, we don't know what could be in store for us in the future." The storm surge that accompanies a hurricane washes up onto the shoreline when a storm makes landfall. This "storm overwash" carries sand from the beach and dunes into coastal lakes and marshes, forming a sand layer. With each new hurricane comes a new layer of sand. By digging up the sediment and using radio-carbon dating to date the layers, Liu was able to determine the number of hurricanes that have hit the coast for the past five millennia. Liu has been performing this procedure on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico for the past 10 years, examining more than 16 sites from Florida to Texas. He has been working on the Atlantic Coast for the past two years, where he studies six sites from Virginia to Massachusetts. Although Liu's findings show that catastrophic hurricanes -- those of categories 4 and 5 -- make landfall in the U.S. about once every 300-600 years, he said the numbers are higher along the Gulf Coast than the Atlantic Coast. His findings also show that there are fluctuations in hurricane activity from one millennium to another, just as there are from one decade to another. These fluctuations are the result of varying climatic patterns that cause hurricanes to be mild and infrequent during some periods in history, and to be catastrophic during other time spans. While the 300-600-year time frame might be considered good news to some coastal residents, the bad news is that hurricane activity during the past millennium, when compared with other periods of time, has been mild and inactive, Liu said. "People think Camille and Andrew were devastating, but we haven't seen anything yet," Liu said. "If we switch back to a more active state, the U.S. could be hit a lot more frequently than we've seen in our lifetimes. There is a very distinct millennial-scale variability, and in the past 1,000 years, there has been a very low incidence of major hurricane landfalls along the Gulf Coast." Liu said such information is vital to coastal-development planners and insurance-risk assessors, not to mention the millions of people in America who live in coastal zones. "Insurance companies charge us based on a probability that they came up with," Liu said of people living along the U.S. coastline. "Until now, there was no empirical basis for estimating the probability for catastrophic hurricanes. Now we have numbers that are scientifically validated." Liu said his study was funded by both the scientific community and the insurance industry, exemplifying an unusual union between science and society. Both the Risk Prediction Initiative, housed at the Bermuda Biological Station for Research, and the National Science Foundation have funded his work. The symposium dealing with hurricanes was included at the AAAS meeting because of the increase in hurricane-induced losses of property during the past decade, Liu said. He pointed out that the 1970s and 1980s were periods with a relatively low incidence of intense hurricanes. During that time, an influx of people to coastal areas caused huge population and property increases along the U.S. coastline. When hurricane activity increased in the 1990s, there were more lives and property to be lost than ever before. Liu said these "inter-decadal" variations in hurricane activity can give people a false sense of security. "When we go a long time without a hurricane, we forget the lessons we learned from storms like Camille," Liu said. He said the symposium will examine the new frontiers of hurricane research, such as paleotempestology, as well as the climatology of hurricanes and planning and evacuation issues. The speakers will address past and potential future changes in hurricane landfalls, the relationship between hurricane activity and the condition of the oceans and the atmosphere, the ability of meteorologists to predict hurricane landfalls and how the public responds to the risk of a hurricane. Other presenters at the symposium included researchers and scientists from the National Hurricane Center, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Florida State University, the University of Rhode Island and the risk-management industry. The AAAS annual meeting provides an opportunity for scientists from around the U.S. to network, discuss research topics and findings and announce major scientific discoveries.
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January 13, 2000 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/01/000113080332.htm | NASA Satellite Used To Improve Rainfall Forecasting Accuracy | Jan. 12, 2000 -- New research shows that the accuracy of three-day rainfall forecasts in the tropics can be improved by as much as 100% percent by combining existing forecast models with satellite rainfall data. These findings were presented today at the annual American Meteorological Society’s (AMS) meeting this week in Long Beach, Calif. These findings also will be featured in an upcoming edition of the Journal of Climate. | Researchers at Florida State University have found that by adding rainfall observations collected by NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and other meteorological satellites to forecast models, they can more than triple the accuracy of rainfall forecasts for the first 12 hours of the forecast. In addition, they found that using the past rainfall data collected from defense meteorological satellites and NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft could be used to increase the forecast skill even further. Their method examines the behavior of a number of different forecast models and selects those properties from each model that lead to the true rainfall as observed by the TRMM satellite in the past. These model properties are then used to predict the rainfall for 3 days into the future with remarkable success."Including rainfall into the multi-forecast model, or superensemble model is a unique approach," said Prof. T.N. Krishnamurti, the paper's lead author and a TRMM scientist at Florida State University, Tallahassee, Fla. "Overall we’re most interested in improving the three-day rainfall forecast skills. Our research has shown that the global, as well as the regional skills, using the multi-analysis superensemble, are higher with TRMM research data."These forecast results are based on five experiments each during Aug. 1 to Aug. 5, 1998. The skill or accuracy was higher over all tropical regions. Scientists attribute this success to a combination of improved analyses available from the superensemble approach as well as the availability of accurate rainfall estimates over the tropics from the TRMM satellite.For years, scientists have attempted to improve the short-term forecasts in the tropics, but only minor improvements were made. Now, with research data from the NASA TRMM spacecraft, scientists will more accurately, or with greater reliability, forecast rainfall in the tropics. This is particularly important when it comes to hurricane tracks and rainfall accumulations. Experimental forecasts made by this new technique during the ’99 hurricane season, for instance, correctly forecast the track of major hurricanes such as Dennis and Floyd.Scientists have a keen interest in how potential changes in the global climate might affect the associated rainfall patterns as they affect human activities. "Making such improvements in even the short term forecasts", says Chris Kummerow, the TRMM project Scientist, "is important because it demonstrates that we are learning more about the behavior of rainfall within these models. Understanding rainfall patterns generated by our global climate models is an extremely difficult problem", he said. "Having additional information available from these weather forecast models has not only the obvious benefit of better short term forecasts, but may also help shed additional light upon the climate models.In his paper, Krishnamurti highlights the various research methods used to come to these conclusions. TRMM is NASA's first mission dedicated to observing and understanding tropical rainfall and how it affects the global climate. The TRMM spacecraft fills an enormous void in the ability to calculate world-wide precipitation because so little of the planet is covered by ground-based radars. Presently, only two percent of the area covered by TRMM is covered by ground-based radars, said Dr. Christian Kummerow, TRMM Project Scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md..TRMM has produced continuous data since December 1997. Tropical rainfall, which falls between 35 degrees north latitude and 35 degrees south latitude, comprises more than two-thirds of the rainfall on Earth.TRMM is a U.S.-Japanese mission and part of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, a long-term research program designed to study the Earth's land, oceans, air, ice and life as a total system. Information and images from the TRMM mission are available on the Internet at URL:
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December 13, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/12/991213052243.htm | Colorado State Hurricane Forecast Team Calls For "Average" 2000 Season | FORT COLLINS -- The United States and countries in and bordering the Caribbean Basin should experience fewer storms and hurricanes in 2000 than in recent years, according to the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team's initial prediction. | William Gray, a nationally recognized hurricane expert, and his colleagues are calling for a "moderate" season in 2000 with 11 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes predicted. While above the long-term average, the 2000 forecast calls for fewer storms than occurred in the years 1995, 1996, 1998 and 1999. The team is calling for an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall. Their record for the 1999 season was one of the best in the 16 years the seasonal forecasts have been issued. In 1999, the team retained its original forecast throughout the season, predicting 14 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major, or intense, hurricanes. At the end of the June 1-Nov. 30 season, observed totals were 12 named storms, eight hurricanes and five major hurricanes. Long-term averages based on the period 1950-1990 indicate 9.3 named storms, 5.8 hurricanes and 2.2 intense hurricanes per year. The 2000 season forecast, while closer to average than others of recent years, is still expected to exceed the average season during the relatively quiet period between 1970-94. A principal reason for the moderate storm numbers is the team's belief that the La Ni a phenomenon, present for the past two years, will reduce in strength by next season. This should weaken its enhancing effect on hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin (comprising the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico). Gray warned, however, that indications continue to show that intense storms (with wind speeds above 110 mph) will occur. In terms of the probability of landfall, this year's forecast calls for the U.S. Atlantic Coast, including peninsular Florida, to have a 45 percent chance of being hit by one or more major storms with winds above 110 mph. The long-term (100-year) mean is 31 percent. The Gulf Coast faces a 37 percent probability of one or more landfalling major hurricanes, while the long-term Gulf Coast average is 30 percent. The chances of one or more intense storms coming ashore somewhere along the entire U.S. coast, from Brownsville to the Canadian border, is 66 percent (the long-term average is 52 percent). "We do not foresee the number of intense storms in Saffir-Simpson categories 3-5 that we saw in the Atlantic Basin in 1995, 1996 and last year," Gray said. "Of the five major hurricanes in 1999, only one--Bret--struck the U.S. coast, in a nearly uninhabited area of south Texas. "Floyd, another category 4 storm, lashed the East Coast from Florida north before coming ashore as a strong category 2 hurricane in North Carolina, bringing unprecedented amounts of rainfall." Gray, professor of atmospheric sciences at Colorado State, and his colleagues believe the 2000 season will start earlier than the seasons of 1998 and 1999. Until four hurricanes formed during a brief period in the last third of August of this year, only one tropical storm (Arlene) had occurred in the first two-plus months of the 1999 season. "Relatively moderate seasons frequently start earlier, which is why we think we'll see more storms earlier in the summer of 2000," Gray said. "In addition, 2000 will be one of these seasons in which equatorial stratospheric winds known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation are easterly, which tends to inhibit storm formation at lower latitudes." Contributing to the anticipated moderate season this year are a number of atmospheric and oceanic phenomena that Gray calls "climate signals." Those include: *La Ni a, a mass of cold water in the eastern equatorial Pacific. La Ni a was powerful this year and produced anomalous upper tropospheric easterly winds over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, a condition that acted to enhance hurricane formation. Next year, while the mass of water will likely remain cold, Gray and his colleagues expect the temperature to moderate. They do not anticipate an El Ni o condition developing. *A reversal of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, which consists of stratospheric, equatorial east-west winds blowing 16 to 35 kilometers above the earth's surface. These winds typically blow for 12-16 months from the east and then reverse and blow the same length of time from the west with a total period of about 26 to 30 months, or roughly two years. The shift due next season will produce easterly winds, which tend to interfere with the development of easterly (barometric) waves coming off the coast of Africa. *Continued warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. While these temperatures have moderated slightly during the last year, they indicate that the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation system, or Atlantic conveyor belt, continues strong. A strong Atlantic conveyor belt, Gray and others believe, contributes to the formation of greater numbers of major or intense (Saffir-Simpson category 3-5) storms. This increases the probability of major hurricane landfall on the U.S. East Coast and in the Caribbean. "I think 2000 will continue the new era of increased Atlantic conveyor belt strength and hence of the probability of more intense hurricanes," Gray said. "Following a period of suppressed major hurricane activity from 1970 to 1994, it is expected that 2000 will continue the upward trend established in 1995." The years 1995-99 were the most-active five consecutive years of hurricane activity on record in the Atlantic Basin, yielding 65 named storms, 41 hurricanes and 20 major hurricanes. By contrast, the numbers of hurricanes and typhoons in the Pacific Ocean are lower, which Gray takes as an indication that the upward trend in Atlantic storms should not be interpreted as being the result of human-induced global warming. Gray and co-authors Chris Landsea, Paul Mielke, Kenneth Berry, with the assistance of Todd Kimberlain, Eric Blake and Bill Thorson, use a variety of climatic factors in their forecasts. In addition to stratospheric winds, continuing warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and continuing La Niña conditions, they look at a ridge of barometric high pressure called the Azores High, warmer sea-surface temperatures throughout the Atlantic, two measures of west African rainfall and mid-latitude oceanic wind patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. ###Note to editors: The complete hurricane forecast and related research and press releases are available on the World Wide Web at:
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November 24, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/11/991124070624.htm | USGS Helps Officials To Avoid Unnecessary Evacuation | Although Hurricane Lenny brought high winds and heavy rains to Puerto Rico, residents in the vicinity of Lago La Plata were spared the hazards and inconveniences of an unnecessary evacuation Wednesday morning, in part because of the efforts of U.S. Geological Survey Caribbean District Office personnel in advance of, and during the storm. Precipitation and stream gauging stations were put on alert mode throughout Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to provide data in near real-time every five minutes via satellite to the USGS District office in Guaynabo. These data proved critical in verifying that a flood of the Lago La Plata Reservoir was not impending. | At the Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency (PREMA) during the hurricane, José M. Agis and Maritza Rodríguez monitored the USGS rain gauge network. Dianne López and Reynaldo Sanabria remained in the Caribbean District office to monitor the computer system and respond to any request from the emergency unit at the PREMA. Even though Hurricane Lenny did not make landfall on the island, it produced heavy rains over Puerto Rico, especially in the interior and the southeast portion of the island. The USGS rain gauge network reported 24-hour rainfall totals of up to 5 and 6 inches near Orocovis, in the interior of the island and approximately 3 inches in the southeastern towns of Naguabo and Humacao. Numerous landslides have also been reported in these areas. The USGS maintains a network of 123 gaging stations in the Caribbean that measure river stage (height) and discharge (volume). During normal operations these stations transmit every 4 hours and the data is available to the general public on the Internet | Hurricanes Cyclones | 1,999 |
November 3, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/11/991103080450.htm | NASA Technology Tracks Consequences Of Hurricane Floyd | A NASA oceanographer, using spaceborne technologies to study the effects of Hurricane Floyd, has seen indications that there may be significant impacts on the marine food chain along the North Carolina coast due to extensive rainfall in the region. | "Following Hurricane Floyd, record-breaking rains continued to soak the area, washing mountains of sediment and waste into the water system. Now rivers and tributaries along the Atlantic are choked and major ecological changes are happening," said Gene Feldman, of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. "Periodically, levels of dissolved oxygen in the water have dropped dramatically as organic matter decomposes, and aquatic life has been threatened in dozens of estuaries and peripheral habitats, commonly referred to as 'dead zones.' The current changes in the area may have lasting repercussions for hundreds of thousands of people," he said. Scientists are studying Hurricane Floyd's effect on algae blooms and phytoplankton, important links in the regional marine food chain. Their data also will help them understand how the hurricane's aftermath may affect the fragile environment in the coming months. Using data from NASA's Earth-orbiting Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and an airborne laser instrument, scientists from two National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) centers can monitor algae growth over large regions, including Pamlico Sound between the North Carolina mainland and the Outer Banks. According to Pat Tester, a NOAA scientist at the Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research, Beaufort, NC, fertilizer and other nutrients that flowed down the storm flooded rivers in eastern North Carolina are feeding the algae or phytoplankton in the sounds. "One question is what happens to the aquatic activity in the sounds when this algae dies and begins to starve the waters of oxygen," Tester said. "The long-term observations provided by the NASA technology will help us monitor the phytoplankton in the water. "The NASA technology improves our ability to monitor these important fishery areas by covering larger areas than direct sampling from boats can, and by providing this information for weeks or months." Tester's team is coordinating sampling missions from small boats on the waterways with flights by a NOAA Twin-Otter aircraft carrying the NASA laser and observations from the SeaWiFS spacecraft. "This approach is providing a three-tier look at the area from space, air and sea," she said. The laser system, the Airborne Oceanographic Lidar from Goddard's Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, VA, transmits a green light pulse into the water, where the light is absorbed by the phytoplankton. A receiver on the aircraft detects the green light reflected from the water's surface and red light that is emitted by the chlorophyll pigment in the algae. The SeaWiFS instrument measures changes in water color that indicate where concentrations of phytoplankton are located. NOAA's Coastal Services Center, Charleston, SC, is also taking part in the research. Images from SeaWiFS of eastern North Carolina following Hurricane Floyd are available at the following web address: | Hurricanes Cyclones | 1,999 |
November 1, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/11/991101075402.htm | Miami Scientist Links Ocean "Fuel Injectors" To Sudden Hurricane Intensification | VIRGINIA KEY, FL -- Just hours from the United States coastline, Hurricane Opal suddenly strengthened. Its winds shot up from 110 mph to 135 mph in a mere 14 hours. Similar sudden and unexpected intensification just before landfall happened with Hurricanes Allen and Camille -- leaving barely enough time to warn people, and almost no time to evacuate. | Now, a University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science professor has identified the probable cause of those sudden intensifications and, perhaps more importantly, mapped some of the hot spots where this season's hurricanes are likely to strengthen dramatically just before landfall. The cause, UM associate professor of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography Lynn K. "Nick" Shay said, are "warm core rings," where warm water extends down to a depth of 100 meters or more. The discovery, which is the result of a joint effort between Shay and Peter Black of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, could save lives and millions of dollars spent on unnecessary evacuations by helping more accurately predict how powerful a storm will be when it strikes land. "This is the heat. This is the energy source," Shay said. "It's like a big fuel-injector in the middle of the ocean." Warm ocean temperatures fuel hurricanes. Normally, though, surface temperatures of 26 degrees centigrade or higher only extend down about 30 to 40 meters. A passing storm draws some energy from the warm water as it passes, but it also stirs it, mixing it with cooler water from below and lowering the temperature of the surface water. The now-cooler surface water then provides less energy for the storm, keeping it from intensifying much further. In a warm core ring, however, the warm water goes much deeper. It doesn't cool that much when a storm passes because it doesn't mix with cooler water from below. A hurricane passing over one of the rings, which are 180 to 220 kilometers in diameter, gets a rich, deep source of energy that, coupled with the right atmospheric conditions, can suddenly turbo-charge a hurricane and turn a minimal storm into a monster. "Ultimately," Shay said, "what we are aiming for is to be able to say that when it encounters this ring, you may be looking at a category four or five storm." A warm core ring is forming right now in the north Gulf in a position to affect passing hurricanes this season. Like the ones discovered before it, the ring was predictable. The rings develop every 11 to 14 months at the top of a warm-water current that loops up into the Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean Sea. Then, typically, they drift westward at one to four kilometers per day over a period of several months until they break up along the Mexico or Texas coast. Another one forms in the northern Atlantic, off the coast of Maine. Shay and Black plan to map a detailed three-dimensional grid of the ring in the Gulf. They also are using historical hurricane tracking information to determine whether warm core rings could account for the sudden intensification of past storms.
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October 20, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/10/991020081157.htm | Satellite Data On Ocean Topography Provides Clues To Hurricane Intensity | Using data from remote sensing satellites, researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder are investigating a key factor that can be used in predicting the extent of a hurricane's fury. | A hurricane's passage over a warm ocean eddy or current has been linked to a marked intensification of hurricane winds. Researchers at the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research in CU-Boulder's College of Engineering and Applied Science have been analyzing the relationship between warm ocean features and hurricane intensification using altimeter data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS-2 Earth-orbiting satellites. These remote sensing satellites, which use a technique that measures the travel time of a microwave pulse reflected off the ocean's surface, help to detect the location of warm eddies and currents in real time, and thus are the latest tool in use by hurricane forecasters. Working with Gustavo Goni at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, CCAR researchers under the direction of aerospace engineering professor George Born, are using the data to assist forecasters in predicting which storms are likely to hit coastal areas the hardest. While the ability to forecast a hurricane's path is relatively advanced, predicting intensity and storm surge -- information that could help determine evacuation areas and other safety measures -- has lagged behind because of insufficient data. A hurricane is born when the right atmospheric conditions are combined with sea surface temperatures exceeding 26 degrees C (79 degrees F), according to CCAR research assistant Suzanna Barth. Warm air rises off the surface of the water, creating an atmospheric low-pressure cell which, if near the equator, produces winds that bend poleward as a result of the earth's rotation. When a hurricane is then driven by high-altitude winds on a path over other warm water features, the additional heat may cause the storm to intensify. "Think of it as a steam engine -- the more heat that's put into it, the faster it's going to run," said associate research professor Robert Leben. A CCAR analysis of altimeter data reveal
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September 24, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/09/990923135255.htm | Construction Methods Help Prevent Hurricane Property Damage | Writer: Leah Griffin | GAINESVILLE, Fla. --- With hurricane season in full swing, University of Florida researchers are in the midst of building training centers around the state to showcase the latest materials and techniques in hurricane-resistant housing and encourage their use in construction. Shingles capable of staying attached in a 110-mph wind and reinforced garage doors that can withstand a category 5 hurricane are among the features of the four Windstorm Damage Mitigation Training and Demonstration Centers being built by UF. The training centers are designed to educate the public, builders and other construction industry workers as to the available ways to protect new and existing homes from wind damage typically caused by severe storms and hurricanes. "The centers let the public know that the government, the construction industry and the university are concerned about property loss due to wind damage," said Robert Stroh, director of UF's Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing, which designed and is overseeing the construction of the training buildings. "This is a publicly visible effort to reduce the loss of life and property." The first such training center opened last month in Fort Pierce and has received plenty of interest, Stroh said. Three more will open within the next year in Escambia, Miami-Dade and St. Johns counties, and a fifth tentatively is slated for Pinellas County. The Shimberg Center is based in UF's M.E. Rinker Sr. School of Building Construction, and the project is funded by the state Department of Insurance. The 3,126-square-foot buildings, designed to look like a typical single-family home, are capable of withstanding winds of at least 110 mph, or nearly category 3 strength. Yet some components can withstand winds much stronger than that, Stroh said. For example, the garage doors of the training centers are reinforced by a system that meets impact and pressure requirements for winds of up to 180 mph. A typical garage door, without similar reinforcement, resists winds of between 70 mph and 110 mph. Another feature of the centers is an insulated, reinforced concrete form wall system that meets the wind-load and impact resistance requirements of the South Florida Building Code, the most stringent in the state, Stroh said. The roofs of the one-story training centers are held down by metal strapping, and a spray adhesive is applied to the roof sheathing to improve the wind resistance. "You would almost have to lift the house off the ground before the roof blows away," Stroh said. While some features, such as the wall system, are applicable only to new construction, visitors may borrow some ideas to improve the wind resistance of their current homes. For instance, three impact-resistant shutter systems on display can be installed on existing homes, Stroh said. The cost of making a home more wind-resistant is worth the investment, said Frank Lepore, a National Hurricane Center spokesman. Property damage costs from hurricanes total about $4.5 billion in the United States each year, he said. "If you were to compare out-of-pocket costs to damages caused by a hurricane, you would still come out ahead," Lepore said. "It's worth the additional money to prevent damage to the structure." Each training center includes its own classroom complete with audiovisual equipment that will accommodate classes of 40 attendees. Transparent panels cover cut-away sections of the wall and ceiling to reveal the internal construction and structural connections. The participating counties have agreed to pay all future maintenance and operating costs and ensure that the centers are used for training purposes. The Fort Pierce training center is free and open to the public, as the other centers will be upon completion.
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September 23, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/09/990923072537.htm | Unusually Hot, Cold Oceans Create Corridor For More Storms | Three current storms captured by a NASA satellite show how unusual sea temperatures are creating a clear corridor in the Atlantic for more to come. | New SeaWinds scatterometer imagery taken by NASA's QuikScat satellite shows tropical storms Harvey in the Gulf of Mexico and Hilary in the Pacific, along with Hurricane Gert near Bermuda, as they spun over the ocean on September 20. The storms are being powered by abnormally warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and cold Pacific waters, said Dr. Timothy Liu, SeaWinds project scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA. The new animation is available at With winds reported by the National Hurricane Center of up to 120 kilometers per hour (75 miles per hour) on September 21, Hurricane Gert appears in orange and yellow. Tropical Storm Hilary, downgraded from a hurricane earlier this week, can be seen in yellow off the coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, and Tropical Storm Harvey, also in yellow, is situated in the Gulf of Mexico. Blues indicate low wind speeds in the animation, while magentas represent medium wind speeds. The motion of the arrows denotes wind direction. The orbiting SeaWinds radar instrument is managed for NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, Washington, DC, by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which also built the SeaWinds radar instrument and is providing ground science processing systems. NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, managed development of the QuikScat satellite, designed and built by Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp., Boulder, CO. NOAA has contributed support to ground systems processing and related activities. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA.
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September 23, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/09/990923071037.htm | Clemson Helps Homeowners Prepare For Future Hurricanes | CLEMSON, S.C.-- Property owners may be better prepared for the next hurricane to strike South Carolina thanks to Clemson University wind research and partnership efforts to put that information in the hands of the people who need it. | On Sept. 21, the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo, Clemson is releasing a how-to guide for homeowners on ways to make both new and older homes stronger against the ravages of high wind. Additional outreach efforts include Clemson's support of a demonstration site in Charleston and the hiring of a full-time coastal hazards specialist to work directly with homeowners, builders, engineers and architects on improved construction techniques and mitigation of hazards such as hurricanes, floods and earthquakes. Clemson President Constantine W. "Deno" Curris said, "As a land-grant university, Clemson's role is not just to create new knowledge through research, but also to take the results of research directly to the people. These projects are perfect examples of how Clemson's tripartite mission of teaching, research and outreach can serve the needs of the state." The how-to guide's core recommendations include creating wind-resistant exterior envelopes for homes, better-connected roofing systems and a "unitized" home structure in which major components are well connected to other components from the roof all the way through the foundation. The guide--"What homeowners can do to make their homes stronger against high winds"--will be available through Clemson Extension offices and online at www.clemson.edu . "We wanted to develop dirt-cheap things people could do to make their homes stronger and more wind resistant," said Clemson associate civil engineering professor Tim Reinhold. Clemson has one of the nation's top laboratories for testing the effects of wind on low-rise structures such as homes and schools. Meanwhile, full-time coastal hazards specialist Elizabeth Judge will help homeowners, builders, architects and designers apply the lessons learned through cutting-edge research at Clemson and elsewhere. The agent, one of the few nationwide to specialize in hazards such as wind, earthquake and flood, is co-funded by the S.C. Sea Grant Consortium and Clemson's Cooperative Extension Service. Ultimately, homeowners will be able to see wind solutions in action at 113 Calhoun Street, a 125-year-old house in Charleston that serves as a Community Sustainability Center to demonstrate how housing can be built to better survive the forces of nature while being kinder to the environment. The 113 Calhoun Street Foundation, a partnership of the S.C. Sea Grant Consortium, the Clemson University Cooperative Extension Service and the city of Charleston, will demonstrate how people can use off-the-shelf, economically feasible materials and techniques to make houses safer from natural disasters such as hurricanes. The center, which will serve as the home office for Judge, is tentatively set to open in February. The wood frame home survived Hurricane Hugo in 1989, many additional hurricanes, at least one fire and, in 1886, the most severe earthquake ever recorded east of the Mississippi. That it's a survivor makes it an appropriate choice for a project designed to show builders, contractors and homeowners how to use construction techniques and materials to better protect a house from storm wind and consequent water damage, according to Bob Bacon, Sea Grant Extension program leader. Bacon heads the technical committee of architects, engineers and builders who are designing and executing 113 Calhoun's renovation and retrofit. "This project is about protecting lives, property and the economy when natural disasters occur," he said.
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September 21, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/09/990921072807.htm | Hurricane Forecast Calls For Continuing Activity After Floyd | FORT COLLINS--Coastal dwellers could be in for as many storms during therest of the hurricane season as they've seen so far, if Colorado StateUniversity's hurricane forecaster William Gray's predictions for 1999 are on themark. | But there also may be some good news--Gray's predictions for this yearcalled for four major storms, and four have already occurred. The hurricaneseason officially runs from June 1 though Nov. 30, but the real heart of theseason is from mid-August through October. Gray, who has been issuing hurricane forecasts for more than a decade,predicted an active year in 1999, with 14 named storms, nine hurricanes and fourintense hurricanes. As of today, just past the halfway mark for the season,seven named storms, five hurricanes and four intense hurricanes have formed. Thelong-term average for a season is 9.3 tropical storms, 5.8 hurricanes and 2.2intense hurricanes each year, based on an analysis of 1950-1990 storm activity. "Our forecast for this season is based on the future being like thepast," Gray said. "Similar atmospheric and ocean patterns as this year occurredin 1950, 1955, 1961, 1964 and 1995. All these were very active seasons. If wedon't get an active year in 1999, it means the atmosphere for some strangereason has stopped behaving as it has in the past. We don't expect that tohappen." As part of their research, Gray and his team also forecast theprobability of hurricane landfall along the U.S. coastline. For 1999 the teamhas predicted a roughly 54 percent chance that one or more intense storms (withwind speeds of 110 mph or above) will make landfall along the U.S. East Coast,including Florida. The Gulf Coast has an approximately 40 percent chance thatone or more intense storms will make landfall. For the Caribbean and Bahamasland areas, the rough probability of one or more major storm landfalls is 72percent and for Mexico the probability is 28 percent, according to the landfallforecast. To date, Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd are the only storms to makelandfall along the U.S. Coast. Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir/Simpson intensity scale, which rangesfrom 1-5. The scale reflects a hurricane's wind- and ocean-surge intensity.Hurricanes of Category 3 or higher are considered intense storms and havemaximum sustained winds of 110 miles per hour or greater. To issue his seasonal forecasts, Gray and his team rely on "climatesignals," or measures of the global oceanic and atmospheric circulation system.These signals have remained both consistent throughout the year and, in all butone case, are favorable for hurricane formation. Factors promoting hurricane formation include: The period from 1995-98 was the most active, four consecutive years ofhurricane activity on record, yielding 53 named storms, 33 hurricanes and 15major hurricanes. This and certain other climate signals suggest to Gray and hisassociates that a period of more major hurricane activity and more intense-stormlandfalls along the East Coast and in the Caribbean Basin is now underway. The periods 1900-25 and 1970-94 were relatively quiescent in terms ofmajor hurricane activity, Gray said, while seasons from the early 1930s throughthe late 1960s generally were more active, with more intense storms lashing theAtlantic coast. He attributes this to a phenomenon called the Atlantic Oceanthermohaline circulation system, or Atlantic conveyor belt, which moves watersnorth from the vicinity of the Caribbean to an area east of Greenland. There,the current sinks to deep levels, moves south and flows into the South AtlanticOcean and beyond. Warm water and high salinity in the conveyor belt strengthen it,producing more active hurricane seasons and more major landfalling storms alongthe eastern seaboard, Gray said. "This ocean circulation, a northbound current that sinks and then movessouthbound, tends to go through decades-long changes," Gray said. "Ourinterpretation of climate data suggests that the Atlantic conveyor belt becamestronger between 1994 and 1995, and this has led to more major storms since thattime." The seasonal forecast, now in its 16th year, is prepared by Gray andco-authors Chris Landsea, Paul Mielke, Kenneth Berry and other projectcolleagues.
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September 20, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/09/990920071833.htm | Clemson's Baruch Forest Science Institute Tracks Forests' Recovery From Hurricane Damage | GEORGETOWN-- To look at the natural forests today, you would never know that Hurricane Hugo roared through South Carolina just 10 years ago, said Charles A. Gresham, a Clemson University forest ecologist. | Hugo's 1989 trek through the state damaged some 4.5 million acres of timberland in 23 South Carolina counties. After the hurricane, Gresham and other ecologists identified research sites in four South Carolina forests to track the recovery process over time. These sites have been set aside as permanent research areas through a grant from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation. They will remain undisturbed by any future developments and are being used to document what happens to forests in the aftermath of major hurricane damage. Gresham is based at the Clemson's Belle W. Baruch Institute of Coastal Ecology and Forest Science in Georgetown, a public service research and education center that focuses on forests, wildlife and the environment. Every three years since 1993, he and other scientists have visited the research sites to measure the plant life and woody debris left behind, then inventory the types of trees in the study plots. The study sites are located in the Hobcaw Forest at the Baruch Institute, the Francis Marion National Forest near McClellanville, the Bidler Forest near Holly Hill and the Congaree Forest near Columbia. "Nature abhors a vacuum," Gresham said. "Within 10 years, we have seen significant recovery-- back to a fully functional, productive forest with a lot of habitat for wildlife. The trees that had their tops broken off by Hugo have re-formed crowns so the canopy has returned. We've also seen a ten-fold increase in the number of new trees filling in open spaces." Called "advance regeneration," these new trees are coming from seeds dropped into open spaces left when older trees were felled by the hurricane's reported 100-plus mile-per-hour winds and by the rapid growth of seedlings released by the creation of open spaces. A major change Gresham and other scientists have noted is that the new growth is by the "pioneer" species of pine, sweet gum and black gum instead of the "climax" species of oak or tupelo. But the mix of species is expected to change over time as the saplings compete for light and nutrients and slower growing species outlast the faster growing ones. "I've had to open my mind and think in a different time frame," Gresham said. "We're all accustomed to turning on a computer and 'whoom' you've got what you need right then. "But forest processes work on a longer time scale. Ten years is a very short time frame in a tree's life. A loblolly pine has a life span of 130 years and there are live oaks down here that are a couple of hundred years old. If we stick around for another 100 years, we might see a very similar forest to what was here before Hugo." Another observation that has emerged from the study is that disturbance, whether from a hurricane or from a single tree dying, is a natural part of forest dynamics. "It's not rare or unnatural, it's just a normal part of nature's process and the forest's development," Gresham said. The only remaining evidence of Hugo today is the debris of fallen trees and logs that now provide habitat for wildlife and support the growth of other plants by releasing nutrients into the soil. Three species of trees weathered the hurricane with less damage than others, Gresham said. Not surprisingly, they are the trees most closely identified with the Lowcountry's coastal plain: live oak, cypress and long leaf pine. These are the species that are most likely to survive when hurricanes hit. The live oak is low and squat, with wood as hard as steel, so it keeps its head down and lets others take the brunt of the winds, Gresham said. The cypress has a deciduous needle, so Hugo's first gusts of wind in September blew off the needles and then had less resistance to cause further damage. The long leaf pine is generally not as tall as the loblolly pine so was less likely to be damaged by the wind, although taller longleaf pines proved to be just as susceptible as other tall trees. An inventory at the research sites will be conducted again in 2000 and 2003. "I can't wait to read the next chapter and see how the species composition is changing and how the species are growing," Gresham said. This research is funded through the South Carolina Agriculture and Forestry Research System based at Clemson, and is being conducted in cooperation with the National Audubon Society, the U.S. Forest Service, National Park Service and the University of Georgia.
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September 16, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/09/990916075500.htm | Engineers Rush To Deploy Wind Measuring Equipment In Advance Of Hurricane Floyd | <b>Using Clemson expertise on unprecedented project </b> | CLEMSON, S.C.-- Engineers--led by teams from Clemson University--are scrambling to deploy four mobile data-acquisition platforms squarely in the path of oncoming Hurricane Floyd. The "wind towers" will provide an accurate ground-level picture of the wind speed and direction. Clemson researchers can then use that data to help improve building codes for coastal areas. "We hope to have our platforms right in the heart of the hurricane when it comes, getting details as they happen, where they're happening," said Scott Schiff, an associate professor in civil engineering at Clemson. Research leader on the projects is Tim Reinhold, also an associate professor of civil engineering at Clemson. Each steel-reinforced platform, which weighs up to 4,500 pounds, is specifically designed to withstand hurricane-force winds and features special securing legs. The teams--and towers--were initially stationed in South Florida on a project to measure how hurricane-force winds affect houses retrofitted for the storms. That initiative, called the Florida Coastal Monitoring Project, is sponsored by the Florida Department of Community Affairs and includes the University of Florida and Florida International University . But the teams re-deployed the wind towers toward the Carolinas when Floyd continued tracking north. At rest, each wind tower looks like a giant spider on its back, with legs clutched to its stomach. When fully deployed, the trailer's central tower extends 33 feet into the air while other out-rigger "legs" will extend downward to form a giant X. The points of that X will then literally be screwed into the ground with 2.5-foot earth screws. The platforms can be fully extended and secured in place in as little as 20 minutes. Most platforms will feature three anemometers specifically designed to operate in high-wind storms. The devices will measure wind speed at heights of 33 feet, a standard reference height, and 15 feet, the height of a typical single-story home. That information will then be relayed along steel-reinforced cables to an onboard computer housed in a reinforced box. The equipment will be powered by generator for the first nine hours, with batteries providing an additional 19 hours of operating time. The approximately $100,000 project is funded with monies from Clemson University, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Florida Department of Community Affairs. "This gives us one of our first chances to get the high-resolution wind-speed data - near the ground, close to where a storm passes - that we need in order to develop design bases for hurricane-resistant homes," said James K. Nelson Jr., chair of Clemson's civil engineering department. Typical airport anemometers simply aren't designed to collect this type of information, said Nelson. Hurricane-hunting aircraft, meanwhile, only measure wind speed at considerable altitude and usually do not make measurements over land. Clemson's Wind Load Test Facility is one of the nation's top laboratories for testing the effects of wind on low-rise structures such as homes and schools.
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September 15, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/09/990915081539.htm | NASA Prepares For Hurricane Floyd | <b>Editor's Note -- The following has been taken from an update issued this week by NASA:</b> | NASA has battened down the hatches at the Kennedy Space Center as we await high winds and water from Hurricane Floyd. We've done everything possible to protect the valuable national assets we have at KSC. Here's an update on preparations for the storm and other information of interest. OverviewOver the weekend, KSC workers got a head start on implementation of the Center's standard hurricane preparedness plan. By Monday night, we completed all possible steps to protect Space Shuttle flight hardware, payloads, equipment and facilities. We released KSC employees from work late Monday to allow adequate time for personal hurricane preparation. Employees will remain on administrative leave through Wednesday. KSC's elevation is approximately nine feet, so we are concerned about both wind damage and water intrusion in the event of a storm surge. Protecting the Space Shuttle FleetSpace Shuttle Orbiters Discovery, Endeavour and Columbia remain in Orbiter Processing Facility Bays 1, 2 and 3 respectively. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. We are storing Orbiter Atlantis in the landmark Vehicle Assembly Building, in High Bay 2. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph.Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.On Monday, KSC workers closed the payload bay doors on all orbiters, and retracted the landing gear as part of standard hurricane protection efforts. The orbiters are now resting in their harnesses approximately 10 feet off the ground.We transported 11 solid rocket booster segments by rail Tallahassee, FL, by railroad; they can be moved further west if necessary. It would not have been logistically feasible to move the Orbiters from KSC. It takes a few days to mate an orbiter to the Shuttle Carrier Aircraft and fly it out of the area. The orbiters are in the safest location possible when not on orbit.Protecting Other Facilities at KSCKSC workers raised Shuttle and payload test above floor level to avert flood damage. The Rotating Service Structures at Launch Pads 39A and 39B were rotated back to the Fixed Service Structures to maximize their protection from high winds.In the Space Station Processing Facility, the International Space Station flight hardware is already elevated in test stands; KSC employees also covered the hardware. In addition to protecting the orbiters and payloads within the facilities, KSC employees secured the buildings themselves. This includes boarding windows, removing or tying down antennas, and sandbagging doors. Hardware for the next five Space Station flights are at KSC and has been protected. Test equipment is also being elevated and covered. Hardware and Facilities for the Next Shuttle MissionsThe Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) payload will ride out the storm in the Space Station Processing Facility high bay inside the payload canister with the doors closed. In the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility, the Hubble Space Telescope flight elements for Space Shuttle Mission STS-103 have been bagged and the test equipment covered.Who's Left at KSC?Rideout crews totaling about 120 individuals have been stationed throughout KSC. As of 4:00 pm EDT on Sept. 14 this crew will have been scaled back to approximately 80 people who will move to the Launch Control Center, Space Station Processing Facility, and the astronaut quarters, all of which can sustain 110-mph winds and are not in danger of flooding. Shortly thereafter, all those wishing to leave will have left, and KSC will have been locked down completely with no one entering or exiting the facility.What About Launch Facilities at Cape Canaveral?There are no NASA rockets or payloads on the launch pads. The Air Force does have a Delta and a Titan lashed down to the pad, and there are two commercial Atlases at the pad. Other InformationNASA budgets $12 million per year for hurricane preparedness at KSC.The Orbiters are not insured; the government is a self insurer. If something were to happen to an Orbiter, NASA would ask Congress to appropriate funds for replacement, as we after the Challenger accident.The orbiters have never sustained any hurricane damage.Approximately 13,000 contractors and NASA employees work at KSC.
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September 2, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/09/990901142117.htm | Severity Of Hurricane Season Can Be Predicted By Studying El Niño, NASA Marshall Scientist Finds | The severity of hurricane seasons can be predicted by studying the influence of the El Niño weather pattern, concludes a study by Robert M. Wilson, a research scientist at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. | The study also determined that a consequence of El Niño is less hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean than when El Niño is not present.A statistical analysis by Wilson of hurricanes that developed in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea between 1950 and 1998 found that when El Niño was present, the number of intense hurricanes in a season has never risen above three. When El Niño was not present, the number of intense hurricanes in a season rose to as high as seven. On average, El Niño-related seasons experience about one intense hurricane, the study found, while non-El Niño-related seasons experience about three. In the last 50 years, 14 out of 15 non-El Niño-related seasons had two or more hurricanes. Wilson's findings will be published in an upcoming issue of the Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union."My goal with this research was to show it is quite simple to predict the severity of a hurricane season," Wilson said. "All you need to know is that you are under the influence of an El Niño."I anticipate that 1999 will be a busy hurricane season, because we're in a non-El Niño-related year. The ocean temperatures are there. And the right winds are occurring," Wilson said."El Niño is a natural part of the climate system, not a beast in and of itself," he said. "It is an interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere that has global consequences. One of the consequences of El Niño is less hurricane development."By knowing that intense storms are likely to occur, coastal areas can prepare," Wilson said. "We need to be aware that we have been in an era, from the mid-1960s to the early 1990s, when we have had little hurricane activity. During that time more and more people have moved to coastal areas, so there is a generation that has been lulled into a false sense of security because they are not familiar with the destructive power of hurricanes. Hopefully, this research can act as a warning."The name El Niño, Spanish for "boy Christ child," originally was used by local fishermen to describe a warming of the Pacific Ocean off Peru and Ecuador. The warming occurs annually, but the fishermen noticed in some years it intensified around Christmas, creating unusual storms and the destruction of marine life in the region.El Niño events occur about every three to seven years. Just as a clock pendulum swings between two extremes, ocean conditions vary between El Niño (warm water events), La Niña (cold water events), and interlude conditions. Scientists refer to this weather pattern as the "El Niño-Southern Oscillation." The hurricane season begins June 1, peaks around September 10 and ends November 30, although the bulk of major hurricanes occurs between mid-August and mid-October of each year.- 30 -
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August 2, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/07/990730111855.htm | Hurricane Test House Braces For Storm Season | <b>Data from North Carolina Structure Could Help Future Homes Stand Up to High Winds</b> | When Hurricane Bonnie bore down on North Carolina's Outer Banks last summer, one gray two-story building was wired and ready to capture critical information about what happens when powerful winds pound a typical coastal home. Although Bonnie was downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it reached the With a new hurricane season under way, the Johns Hopkins team, led by Although its exterior resembles that of a two-story tract house, this building, owned by the town of Southern Shores, actually operates as a community center. High-tech equipment inside and outside can record weather conditions, wind pressure on the building and movement of the structure itself. Data from these sensors is collected inside the house by a computer that can relay the information by modem to the university's Baltimore campus. As a result, the engineers do not need to be on the premises when a dangerous storm strikes. "This structure was built to demonstrate a wind-resistant construction design," says Jones. "I think the odds are better than even that it would survive a fairly severe blow, such as a hurricane, but not necessarily without damage." The system was activated in October 1997. Since then, the Johns Hopkins team has collected more than 2,000 data sets, including readings from a "northeaster" storm in February 1998 and from Bonnie in August 1998. Jones and Porterfield presented a paper describing the project and providing preliminary data from Bonnie during the 10th International Conference on Wind Engineering, held recently in Copenhagen, Denmark. Their research is important because hurricanes can deal a devastating blow to people and property. Even though the 1998 season was relatively mild, federal officials estimated that Bonnie and other storms caused about $6.5 billion in damage. Hurricane Andrew, which struck South Florida in 1992, killed dozens of people, destroyed more than 100,000 homes and caused about $25 billion in damage. Changes in construction methods and materials could help reduce the property loss in future storms. But builders and regulators need scientific data to help them determine how best to resist the power of hurricane-force winds. Readings from the "wired" house in Southern Shores could provide such clues. The building, called the Kern P. Pitts Center, is located about a quarter-mile west of the Atlantic Ocean in a region that is commonly in the path of hurricanes and tropical storms. Its construction was initiated by the nonprofit Blue Sky Foundation to test how sections made of wood frame, steel beams and concrete would hold up in severe weather. During its construction in 1997, Johns Hopkins engineers were permitted to install 13 pressure gauges in the walls and roof, 20 strain gauges on the studs and rafters, an ultrasonic anemometer to measure wind speed in three directions and rooftop equipment to measure rainfall, temperature and barometric pressure.
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June 9, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/06/990609072815.htm | Colorado State Hurricane Forecasters Continue To Call For Active Season; Caribbean, Mexican Landfall Probabilities Predicted | FORT COLLINS--Colorado State hurricane forecaster William Gray and his team are standing by earlier predictions of an active hurricane season similar to last year's, with 14 tropical storms, nine hurricanes and four intense hurricanes expected in 1999. | For the first time, Gray and his associates have issued probability predictions of hurricanes occurring in the vicinity or making landfall in the Caribbean Basin-Bahamas or on the east coast of Mexico. "We expect this year to be an active season, comparable to the ones in 1996 and 1998, but less busy than the extreme season of 1995," Gray said.Last year's season saw 14 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes and three intense hurricanes. By comparison, a 1950-1990 baseline has indicated an average of 9.3 tropical storms, 5.8 hurricanes and 2.2 intense hurricanes annually. The team believes there is a 50 to 75 percent higher probability that a storm will come ashore in the Caribbean or along Mexico's east coast this year compared with the average per-year probability for the past century.Meanwhile, there is an approximately 72 percent chance that one or more major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson 3-5) will strike the U.S. coastline between Brownsville, Texas, and the Canadian border, or 44 percent above the 100-year average. Landfall probabilities for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, are about 54 percent for one or more major hurricanes, or 74 percent above the 100-year average, and about 40 percent for one or more major hurricanes making landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle west to Brownsville (33 percent above the long-term average.) Predictions made in December 1998 have remained the same for the April 7 and current updates, the first time since 1992 that numbers have not changed based on new data. "The climate signals we saw in December and early April remain the same, indicating that we're likely to see activity quite a bit above the average season," Gray said. "We don't see anything in the new information we have through the month of May that would cause us to alter our forecast." In fact, Gray said, two climate signals have strengthened his belief that this will be an active season."The Atlantic Ocean looks slightly more conducive to hurricane formation as sea surface temperatures have risen and, we believe, will continue to rise," he said. In addition, "the West Coast from southern Canada to Baja California has unusually cold sea surface temperatures. During similar episodes we've had very active hurricane seasons," Gray said.The phenomenon is not necessarily related to La Niña, an upwelling of cold water limited to the equatorial Pacific. However, La Niña also contributes to Atlantic Basin hurricane formation and is expected to remain cool through the entire June 1-Nov. 30 hurricane season.Other factors promoting hurricane formation are westerly stratospheric winds, called the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, that exist high in the atmosphere over the earth's equatorial regions and reverse themselves about every two years. When these stratospheric winds blow from the west, as they are doing in 1999, an enhancing effect on hurricane activity, especially major hurricanes, occurs.In addition, a ridge of barometric high pressure called the Azores High is measuring below average. The Azores High has an enhancing influence on hurricane activity, as does below-average Caribbean Basin sea-level pressure for August and September 1999.The forecast, now in its 16th year, is prepared by Gray and co-authors Chris Landsea, Paul Mielke, Kenneth Berry and other project colleagues.Gray believes that signals from the Atlantic, coupled with recent strong hurricane activity, indicate a new era of storm formation. Increasing North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and salinity suggest that changes observed since 1995 mean the continuance of a strong Atlantic Ocean conveyor belt circulation, bringing with it the chance for more intense hurricanes along the Atlantic coast and in the Caribbean. This enhanced period could continue for two or more decades, Gray believes.While the Atlantic conveyor belt affects the Eastern Seaboard, this year could see more activity at low latitudes from easterly waves progressing out of Africa."That could mean more low-latitude storms (from the equator to about 25 degrees north) this year and storms with long tracks, which tend to become more intense ones," Gray said. "They can affect the Caribbean, but as they move west they tend to curve to the north and could affect the Gulf Coast."With this cold water along the Pacific, historically we tend to have lots of landfalling storms along the entire coast."
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May 19, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/05/990518125410.htm | In Harm's Way: Engineers To Measure Hurricane Forces On Homes | Writer: Aaron Hoover | Sources: Tim Reinhold -- (864) 656-5941, [email protected], Fla. --- As the hurricane churns towards land, researchers fan out into evacuated coastal cities in the storm's path, setting up equipment that could provide vital new information on nature's most powerful storms. It sounds like a sequel to Twister. But the scene will become a reality this summer, when engineering professors and students from three universities, including the University of Florida, launch a project to learn more about how hurricane-force winds affect houses. The goal of the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program is to measure wind speeds, forces and pressures on houses retrofitted for hurricane preparedness. Researchers want to learn how effective the retrofits were, how to design more hurricane-worthy homes and whether building codes are up to snuff. They also want to gather information about low-altitude wind speeds and directions in hurricanes, data that is largely unavailable today, they say. Clemson University in Clemson, S.C., is leading the project, with UF and Florida International University participating. Tim Reinhold, a Clemson associate professor of civil engineering, said the research may shed light on what has become a hotly contested issue. "After a hurricane strikes, wind speeds tend to get exaggerated and many people believe the storm was so strong damage was inevitable," he said. "Others will say the damage was a result of shoddy construction. And then there are people who say the codes just weren't stringent enough. "Who is right? Right now, there's so little data as to how strong the winds were and how strong the houses were built, anybody can put up as much smoke as they want to." The researchers currently are outfitting 10 homes in South Florida with brackets, wiring and other equipment in preparation for the start of the June 1 - Nov. 30 hurricane season. The homes, plus 10 more in the Florida Panhandle to be outfitted later this summer, are receiving hurricane retrofits as part of the Florida Department of Community Affairs' Residential Coastal Mitigation Program. The program, launched after Hurricane Andrew in 1992, provides assistance to homeowners to retrofit homes against wind or water damage. Homeowners agreed to participate in exchange for $8,000 to $12,000 in retrofits. Kurt Gurley, a UF assistant professor of civil engineering, said researchers will track hurricanes, then work with meteorologists to determine the most likely landfall. When a hurricane appears about two days away from southeast Florida or the Panhandle, two teams of researchers will load up equipment in vans based in Gainesville, then deliver and install it in the prepared houses in the hurricane's path, Gurley said. The equipment includes instruments that measure wind speed, direction and pressure and computers that collect and interpret the data for each home. As many as 20 Frisbee-sized discs placed on the homes' roofs will hold many of the instruments, he said. "They're going to tell us how strongly the wind pushes and pulls on the home," he said. Shortly before the hurricane strikes, when researchers have a more definite idea where it will make landfall, they plan to deploy at least one large trailer with several monitoring instruments directly in the storm's path. "We'll instrument the houses, and as we learn more about where the storm is going we'll put the trailer in place," Reinhold said. Reinhold and Gurley said little is known about hurricane wind speeds and forces at altitudes of below 30 meters, despite the impact these winds have on houses or other small structures. They also said that, despite evidence that the gust structure of the winds affects wind loads and influences hurricane damage, there also is little information about exactly how the effects may differ from other types of storms. "What our project does is get at some of that science to provide a baseline of what's going on," Reinhold said. The Florida Department of Community Affairs is funding the project with grants totaling about $560,000, much of it going for the purchase of the vans and monitoring equipment, Reinhold said. Given the vulnerability of today's structures to hurricane-force winds, it should be money well spent, he and Gurley said. "People just seem to accept wind damage as something that happens -- they don't realize there's things that can be done," Gurley said. "Even people in very high-risk areas like the Keys can do things to protect their property."
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February 19, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/02/990219081247.htm | Study Of Soufriere Hills Volcano Provides Clues To Explosive Eruptions & Eruption Predictions | University Park, Pa. -- A study of the Soufriere Hills Volcano provides important clues to short-term prediction of and the mechanisms behind cyclic eruptions of the most common type of volcanoes, according to an international team of volcanologists. | "We had precisely the right equipment, in the right place, and at the right time, to monitor the changeover from a steady magma flow to one that was not steady but cyclical," says Dr. Barry Voight, professor of geosciences at Penn State and a senior scientist appointed by the British Geological Survey to work at the Montserrat Volcano Observatory. "No one before had documented these cyclic events nearly so well, or had monitored the additional background data necessary to understand the mechanisms behind them."In today's (Feb. 19) issue of the journal Science, the researchers note that their analysis of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, British West Indies, is applicable to other andesite volcanos, the predominant type of explosive volcano worldwide. The researchers monitored the seismic and deformation behavior of the mountain in real time, allowing both an improved understanding of the volcanic system and enabling prediction of when eruptions might occur and what areas they were likely to affect. There were two types of dangerous eruptions at Montserrat. For the scorching-hot, block-and-ash hurricane-type eruption, caused by collapse of a growing lava mound over the volcano vent, the team could identify the time when their occurrence was probable, within a few hours, says Voight. "We could also identify the directions they would travel. However, we could not reliably say for a given cycle if, in fact, a major collapse, with an exceptionally-long-running ash hurricane, would occur," he notes. "But we could predict say 11 hours before hand, that if a collapse-generated ash hurricane were to occur, it would occur at a certain time and would probably move in a general direction." For the second type of eruption that involved large vertical explosions with nine-mile high eruption columns and ash hurricanes simultaneously in a number of river valleys, it became possible to forecast with some confidence each impending explosion. In general, this forecasting ability aided civil officials to define zoning and to carry out evacuation, and many lives were saved, says Voight of Penn State."The scientists could make predictions because the volcano had switched over to repetitive cyclic activity," says Voight.The magma inside the volcano contained water that was boiling off and trying to escape as the hot mass rose. When some of the water left the magma melt, the melt began to crystallize. Partially crystallized magma is much more viscous than uncrystallized magma. As a result, the thick, sticky magma plugged the upper part of the volcano's conduit. Then, pressure in magma underneath the plug built up, causing ground swelling and earthquakes, and eventually pushed the magma plug out of the way. Magma was then rapidly ejected and this commonly caused collapse of the surface lava mound and ash hurricanes.Researchers monitored the cycles of sticking and slipping, using state-of-the-art monitoring equipment and software provided by the U.S. Geologic Survey, the BGS and others, that allowed real-time data collection and analysis. The scientists could analyze events within minutes of their occurrence. Tilt meters high on the volcano indicated how much and where the pressure was building.As the lava dome grew, some large landslide collapses thinned areas of the dome, quickly reduced the external pressure inside and under the dome and made them more likely to be the site of vertical or horizontal explosions of hot ash and gases, says Voight. From these deep uncorked pockets, magma with fine bubbles of pressurized gas would explode outward causing hot ash hurricanes. These pyroclastic flows moved down toward the sea at speeds as fast as 70 m.p.h. The capital town of Plymouth was destroyed by these flows. "It was a sad moment to watch Plymouth burn," says Voight. The pyroclastic flows happened right after the pressure peak in the stick slip cycle. Knowing the cyclic timing of the magma, the researchers could identify when eruptions might occur. Because the researchers also knew where the lava-dome deformations and slope failures were occurring, they could define the flow direction.The explosive eruptions in August 1997 happened because the magma corking the conduit became thin from a previous dome collapse and the underlying high pressure buildup popped the cork. The resulting explosions rose vertically as much as nine miles. Ballistic blocks a yard wide were shot out over a mile and ash hurricanes flowed in all sectors around the volcano, running to the sea."Because we were able to predict these eruptions, we were able to put teams in the field to document the explosive events by video, still photography and surveying. We are learning a lot from this data which is still being worked on," says Voight. He noted that this explosion destroyed his tilt meters.At least for now, the Soufriere Hills Volcano is relatively quiet. The last very large eruption occurred on Dec. 26, 1997, in where the south side of the whole volcano collapsed, and an explosive blast completely destroyed the two towns on that side of the island. The communities had been evacuated and no lives were lost. It was extremely fortunate that the evacuation was maintained, because no one could have survived the blast, says Voight.Magma is no longer rising to build the dome, but the volcano remains dangerous. The lava is still very hot -- 1300 degrees F -- and its surface is unstable. Occasional gravity collapses still cause ash hurricanes that can run to the sea. However, it appears that this activity is winding down. The researchers have found clear links among the seismic and deformation data from the volcano, the volcano's behavior and the way that gas and ash eruptions occur."Understanding these links advances our ability to interpret our data in terms of the physical processes and helps us to forecast the timing and, to a usable extent, the eruptive style of the volcano," says Voight. "These results, which can be of use elsewhere, improve our ability to mitigate the very dangerous effects of explosive volcanism." The research team consisted of scientists from British Universities, the British Geological Survey, the Seismic Research Unit of the University of the West Indies, U.S.G.S. and Penn State. The members were Voight, R.S.J. Sparks, A.D. Miller, R.C.Stewart, R.P. Hoblitt, A. Clarke, J. Ewart, W. Aspinall, B. Baptie, T. H. Druitt, R. Herd, P. Jackson, A.M. Lejeune, A.B. Lockhart, S.C. Loughlin, R. Luckett, L. Lynch, G.E. Norton, R. Robertson, I.M. Watson and S.R. Young, all working through the Montserrat Volcano Observatory, Montserrat, British West Indies.
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February 9, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/02/990208171207.htm | NCAR Web Site Reports Economic Costs Of Extreme Weather By State | BOULDER--Tornadoes cost Texas on average more than $40 million a year,while Iowa ranks first in costs of flooding, according to a new sitelaunched today on the World Wide Web. The site provides quick access todata on the cost of damages from hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes inthe United States and its territories. Created at the National Centerfor Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Extreme Weather Sourcebook( | "We created the site to spur investigation, because we're all affectedby weather and climate," says political scientist Roger Pielke, Jr., wholed the NCAR team that built the site. The Sourcebook is also intendedto be a user-friendly tool for journalists on deadline."Users of information on weather impacts have been frustrated in thepast by data in incompatible formats," says Pielke. With the harmonizeddata on the new Web site, "people can compare apples with apples."Visitors to the Extreme Weather Sourcebook will find the states and U.S.territories ranked in order of economic losses from hurricanes, floods,tornadoes, and all three events combined. A dollar figure for theaverage annual cost in each category for each state is also provided.Links take the reader to graphs with more detailed information on costper year for each state and each hazard. For those who want to digdeeper, there's a link to Pielke's Societal Aspects of Weather pages(The site allows relative comparisons of where a region or state standsin the national picture. "This is quantitative information that shouldbe used in a qualitative way," says Pielke. He also warns thathistorical costs should not be used to predict what future damages mightbe. "We're making no predictive claims. The future could be verydifferent," he says.The data for hurricane impacts covers 1925-1995 (based on a study byPielke and Christopher Landsea of the National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration); for tornadoes, 1960-1994 (based on a databasemaintained by the Storm Prediction Center); and for floods, 1983-1996(based on data published by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers). The floodand tornado data were updated to 1997 dollar values using the GrossNational Product Implicit Price Deflator, which is published annually bythe White House. The hurricane data were normalized to 1997 values byadjusting for growth in population and wealth, in addition to inflation.The Sourcebook was partially funded by the U.S. Weather ResearchProgram, a federal program focused on improving predictions and theiruse by decision makers. The USWRP home page is at NCAR is managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research,a consortium of more than 60 universities offering Ph.D.s in atmosphericand related sciences.-The End-Find this news release on the World Wide Web at To receive UCAR and NCAR news releases by e-mail, telephone303-497-8601 or send name, affiliation, postal address, fax, andphone number to [email protected]
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January 18, 1999 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/01/990115144246.htm | NASA Hurricane Study Reveals "Intriguing" Results | NASA and other weather researchers have learned "intriguing " new information about upper-level winds that drive hurricanes, and the devastating impact of the storms as they collide with mountains. | The research from a seven-week study last summer called the Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) that involved NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and several universities in a concentrated effort to gauge the strength of Atlantic hurricane winds and rainfall. "The wind patterns flowing into and out of the hurricanes at the upper altitudes were much more complicated than had been anticipated," said the lead mission scientist, Robbie Hood of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. "At times, strong wind gusts were recorded at positions farther from the eyewall or with magnitudes greater than expected." Researchers flew aboard NASA's specially equipped DC-8 jetliner into hurricanes Bonnie, Danielle, Earl and Georges. An instrument-laden ER-2 high-altitude aircraft was flown above the hurricanes to collect first-of-its-kind data. The information is expected to assist weather forecasters to better predict storm strength and direction -- saving lives and reducing evacuation zones along coastal areas. "The multi-aircraft datasets obtained by NASA aircraft in these hurricanes are unprecedented in their comprehensiveness," said Dr. Ed Zipser, a weather expert from Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas. "They will provide researchers with the raw material to understand the storms and their environment, and lead to improved track and intensity forecasts in the future." "The amazing thing about this data from Georges is that the rain was enhanced significantly by the mountains in the interior of the Dominican Republic," said NASA researcher Dr. Gerald Heymsfield from the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. "We got a glimpse of the storm's impact with the mountainous island and the subsequent rain which eventually caused significant loss of life." Heymsfield's images from a Doppler radar on the high-altitude aircraft show Hurricane Georges slamming into 9,000 foot mountains -- producing what appeared to be huge thunderstorms over the mountains. "Understanding this very complicated interaction between Hurricane Georges and the mountains will keep us busy for a while," said Heymsfield. The two NASA aircraft were flown a combined total of 132 hours to sample various aspects of the hurricane environment. Information from three storms was captured while they made landfall. The hurricane team also utilized ground-based instruments on Andros
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December 2, 1998 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1998/11/981130161544.htm | Scientists Tackle Climate Variability, Global Warming At Paris Meeting | BOULDER--In a major agenda-setting conference that will guide much ofthe world's climate research for the next decade, representatives fromover 60 countries will gather in Paris December 2-4 to examine questionsrelating to natural climate variability, the human role in globalclimate change, and the predictability of global and regional climate. | The Climate Variability and Predictability Study (CLIVAR) of the WorldClimate Research Programme is "the largest, most comprehensiveinternational climate research program ever undertaken," according toKevin Trenberth, co-chair of the CLIVAR scientific steering group.Trenberth will deliver a keynote address on CLIVAR's recently publishedimplementation plan and on the evolution of CLIVAR science. He is alsohead of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center forAtmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder. NCAR's primary sponsor is theNational Science Foundation (NSF).At the meeting, a large U.S. delegation, including representatives fromNSF, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and theNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), will outline theU.S. support and plans. The U.S. group is headed by Michael Hall (NOAA'sOffice of Global Programs), who will give the closing keynote address.Attendees will define climate issues relevant to their own regions andmap out collaborative efforts to answer the most pressing questions.Among the new research presented at the meeting will be--The 1997-98 El Nino/La Nina--Ants Leetmaa, National Centers forEnvironmental Prediction, United States--Long-term climate variability and the detection and attribution ofanthropogenic effects--Suki Manabe, Japan--Towards the prediction of monsoon variability--Victor Magana Rueda,Mexico--Decadal variability in the ocean-atmosphere system--Jurgen Willebrand,Germany.Created in 1993, the 15-year CLIVAR program focuses on the interactionof the oceans and the atmosphere and their role in the earth's overallclimate. CLIVAR's goal is to enhance scientists' ability to predictclimate on both global and regional scales from a season to a century.Such predictions might warn Kenyan farmers of heavy El Nino-relatedrains that could drown crops, alert towns along the western Atlanticcoast of the projected intensity of the brewing hurricane season as LaNina builds in the Pacific, or caution Indonesian brush burners of anexpected fire-prolonging drought.The meeting will be held at the United Nations Educational, Scientific,and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) center in Paris. For more, pleasecontact Anatta at 303-497-8604; [email protected] is managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research,a consortium of more than 60 universities offering Ph.D.s in atmosphericand related sciences.-more-Following is an excerpt from a paper by Kevin Trenberth, submitted tothe journal CONSEQUENCES--THE NATURE & IMPLICATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTALCHANGE (www.gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/introCON.html), describing recentclimate extremes and their impacts in the United States and elsewhere.This excerpt may be reproduced with proper credit to the author and thejournal, CONSEQUENCES.The August 1998 issue of Life magazine featured "WEATHER" as its coverstory and claimed 16,367 dead and $45.2 billion in damage since thebeginning of 1997. After this story was written, other major weather-related disasters occurred. For instance, major floods devastated partsof Korea in early August and extensive heavy rains in China led toflooding of the Yangtze River where there are preliminary reports ofmore than 2,000 deaths, over 14 million people homeless, and over $25billion in damage. Heat waves and air pollution episodes have alsoplagued many regions, particularly in Egypt, across the Mediterranean,and southern Europe. At least 10,000 Central Americans were killed andmany thousands more made homeless in the fall of 1998 by HurricaneMitch, the deadliest and fourth-strongest Atlantic hurricane of thiscentury.In the United States, several major weather-related stories with largehuman impacts and severe damage have occurred in the past year or so,and many stories linked the disasters to El Nino. Tornado outbreaks andfloods in Florida ($1 billion damage and at least 132 deaths, accordingto NOAA) were part of a pattern that led to the wettest winter(December-February) in the Southeast on record. Torrential rains inFebruary in California led to flooding in many locales, mudslides andcoastal erosion. Huge damage occurred in the winter ice storm in NewEngland and southeastern Canada, with loss of power to many communitiesfor several weeks. Meanwhile, the northern tier of states experiencedone of the mildest winters on record. Lake Erie failed to freeze foronly the third time on record.Spring brought flooding to several areas, such as Iowa, Indiana, and NewEngland, as part of generally wetter than normal conditions from Idahoto New England. Ohio River flooding left 30,000 people without power.Meanwhile drought enveloped the South. Extremely dry conditions fromApril through June 1998 led to wildfires which destroyed many structuresand charred 485,000 acres in Florida alone. In Texas the droughtcontinued into summer, bringing with it sweltering heat waves. Theseconditions have devastated agriculture throughout the state. Forinstance, the drought in Texas (the number-one U.S. cotton producer) andthe wetness in the winter and spring in California (the number-two U.S.cotton producer) led the U.S. Department of Agriculture in August toproject that the U.S. cotton crop would shrink by 24% from 1997. InCalifornia the losses come about because the wetness created anenvironment favorable to a soil fungus. Areas with drier than normalconditions or even droughts during El Nino, such as Indonesia, thePhilippines, Australia, Southeast Asia, Hawaii, and parts of Africa andBrazil, are apt to experience heavy rains during La Nina.Meanwhile, areas that experience floods in El Nino, such as Peru,Ecuador, Uruguay and northern Argentina in South America, parts ofAfrica and southern parts of the United States in winter are apt to bedrier than normal during La Nina events. In 1997, the strongest droughtset in over Indonesia and it led to many fires, set as part ofactivities of farmers and corporations clearing land for agriculture,raging out of control. With the fires came respiratory problems inadjacent areas 1000 kilometers distant and even a plane crash in thearea has been linked to the visibility problems. Subsequently,continuing in to 1998, El Nino-related drought and fires evolved inBrazil, Mexico and Florida. Flooding took place in Peru and Ecuador, asusual with El Nino, and also in Chile, and coastal fisheries weredisrupted.-The End-Find this news release on the World Wide Web atTo receive UCAR and NCAR news releases by e-mail,telephone 303-497-8601 or e-mail [email protected]
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November 25, 1998 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1998/11/981125045904.htm | Tropical Rainfall Measuring Spacecraft Completes One Year Of Dramatic Weather Observations | The world's first space mission dedicated to observing and understanding tropical rainfall has successfully completed its first year of continuous data-gathering. Launched last fall, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft continues to provide exciting new insight into cloud and precipitation systems over the tropics. | TRMM is a joint U.S.-Japanese mission that was launched on Nov. 27, 1997, from the National Space Development Agency at Japan's Tanegashima Space Center. The TRMM satellite has produced continuous data since Dec. 8, 1997. Tropical rainfall -- that which falls within 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south of the equator -- comprises more than two-thirds of the rainfall on Earth. Changes in wind patterns generated by these tropical systems spread across the globe to impact weather patterns everywhere. Launched to provide a validation for poorly known rainfall datasets generated by global climate models, TRMM has demonstrated its utility by reducing uncertainties in global rainfall measurements by a factor of two -- from approximately 50 percent to 25 percent. While pleased with the results to date, "there is clearly an aspect of tropical rainfall which does not fit our conceptual models," said Dr. Christian Kummerow, TRMM project scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. "At the moment, all fingers are pointing at the possibility that raindrops are significantly smaller than we used to believe. Looking 'under the hood,' of clouds with radars and radiometers has given us a unique perspective on the rain and ice processes. As soon as we make sense of all these new and sometimes contradictory observations, a whole new improved way of viewing and modeling rainfall processes should emerge. These particle sizes have the potential effect of regulating the amount of water vapor and ice being pumped into the upper atmosphere, which plays a key role in global climate change studies," added Kummerow. "The cloud types and area coverage generated by the rainfall process can directly alter the heat balance of the atmosphere," said Arthur Hou, deputy TRMM project scientist at Goddard. "The combined view of this process from all the TRMM sensors is offering an unprecedented insight here." Observations of cloud droplets near the cloud tops of thunderstorms have also yielded surprises. "The darker appearance of raining clouds and the unexpected suppression of rain in polluted atmospheres might be explained by the presence or absence of large raindrops near the cloud top," said Danny Rosenfeld, an Israeli scientist who is a member of the TRMM science team. Scientists long have theorized that convection, or heat transfer, is different over land than over the ocean. TRMM's sensors provided direct observational evidence that faster and stronger convective updrafts over land are contributing to the formation of "taller" continental storms with more lightning. This is in contrast to the almost complete absence of lightning over the world's tropical oceans. One unexpected phenomenon observed by TRMM was the massive tall chimney clouds in Hurricane Bonnie. While monitoring the progress of one of this year's most dramatic hurricanes, NASA researchers obtained compelling images of Hurricane Bonnie showing a (cumulonimbus) storm cloud, towering like a sky scraper, 59,000 feet into the sky from the storm's eyewall. This new view of "hot towers" in hurricanes could help forecasters predict hurricane intensity earlier, and identify those storms that will proceed to a stronger category. Last July, TRMM shed new light on the phenomenon known as La Nina. TRMM research team members successfully retrieved sea-surface temperature data from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) instrument aboard the spacecraft. This temperature data, obtained by the TMI, gives scientists the ability to obtain observations even in cloudy conditions. The coincidence of having both an El Nino and a La Nina event is giving scientists a rare opportunity to study the evolution of these events and the transition from one to another. La Nina is essentially the opposite of the El Nino phenomenon and is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. An El Nino occurs when ocean temperatures are warmer than normal. La Nina and El Nino often are spoken of together and termed the El Nino/Southern Oscillations, or "ENSO." La Nina sometimes is referred to as the cold phase of the ENSO. An unexpected benefit from TRMM has been the almost immediate impact the data have had in improving the understanding of atmospheric water and energy cycle in assimilated global data sets. While still early, scientists are very encouraged that this improvement will lead directly to enhanced research efforts as well as better weather forecasts. TRMM is part of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, a long-term research program designed to study the Earth's land, oceans, air, ice and life as a total system. Images from the TRMM mission are available on the Internet at URL: | Hurricanes Cyclones | 1,998 |
November 24, 1998 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1998/11/981124064046.htm | NASA Aircraft Sets New World Altitude Record | A NASA ER-2 aircraft set a new world altitude record for medium weight aircraft on Nov. 19, 1998, reaching 68,700 feet, almost twice the cruising altitude of most airliners. | The new world record was made by an ER-2, tail number 806, based at NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, CA, and occurred during an airborne science mission to measure different components in the atmosphere, such as water, ozone and other atmospheric particles. The new record surpassed the old record of 62,500 feet, which was flown by a Canadian P-42 aircraft in 1988. The record was for the aircraft medium weight class of 26,455 to 35,274 pounds at takeoff. This record flight was not the first time the ER-2 has achieved such a high altitude. The aircraft, a close relative of the U.S. Air Force U-2, routinely operates between 65,000 and 70,000 feet. But this is the first time the ER-2's performance has been documented and made public. "This flight had two purposes," said Dryden ER-2 pilot Jim Barrilleaux, who flew this historic mission. "The science goal is the principle reason we flew the aircraft. But achieving the world altitude record verifies all of the outstanding efforts by the people who have worked on the NASA ER-2s and U-2s throughout the years -- designers, builders, operators, maintainers and scientists. This flight provides public acknowledgment of their good work. I personally feel that I am doing this on their behalf and in their honor." An official from the National Aeronautics Association (NAA) observed the record-setting event and will process the formal certification with the Federal Aeronautique Internationale (FAI). The FAI is the international organization responsible for the coordination of competition and certification of all world aviation records. The NAA, as the U.S. representative of the FAI, is responsible for coordination and certification of all aviation records in the United States. NASA owns and operates two ER-2 aircraft for its Airborne Science Program. Built by the Lockheed Martin Skunk Works, the aircraft collect information about our surroundings, including Earth resources, celestial observations, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics and oceanic processes. The aircraft also are used for electronic sensor research and development, satellite calibration and satellite data validation. A NASA ER-2 recently concluded a six-week hurricane study originating from Patrick Air Force Base, FL, designed to improve scientists' ability to forecast, track and measure the intensity of hurricanes. As part of the mission, the ER-2 flew above Hurricane Bonnie, collecting valuable information that could ultimately save lives and money. In 1981, NASA acquired its first ER-2 aircraft. The agency obtained a second ER-2 in 1989. These airplanes replaced two Lockheed U-2 aircraft, which NASA had used to collect science data since 1971. The U-2s, and later the ER-2s, were based at NASA's Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, until 1997, at which time the ER-2 aircraft and their operations moved to Dryden. Since the program's inaugural flight on Aug. 31, 1971, NASA U-2s and ER-2s have flown over 4,000 data missions and test flights in support of scientific research conducted by scientists from NASA, other government agencies, universities and the private sector. For most missions, the ER-2 operates at altitudes between 65,000 and 70,000 feet. Depending on aircraft weight, the ER-2 reaches a cruise altitude of 65,000 feet within twenty minutes. Typical cruise speed is 470 miles per hour. The range for a normal six-hour mission is approximately 2,500 miles, which yields five hours of data collection at high altitude. The aircraft is capable of longer missions of more than eight hours and ranges of more than 3,400 miles. The ER-2 can carry a maximum payload of 2,600 pounds, distributed in the equipment bay, nose area and wing pods.
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November 9, 1998 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1998/11/981109083456.htm | Safe Water, Medicines, Insecticides Greatest Needs After Mitch | Washington, Nov. 6, 1998-- Safe water, specific medicines, insecticides and waste disposal are the highest priority needs in the Central American countries affected by Hurricane Mitch, say Pan American Health Organization disaster experts. | Contrary to popular belief, epidemics and plagues don't usually follow natural disasters, according to experts at PAHO, which is working with the health sector in Honduras, Nicaragua, and other Central American countries to reduce the risk of outbreaks that could arise as a result of Mitch. Dr. Hugo Prado, of PAHO's Emergency Preparedness and Disaster Relief Program, says "after a disaster such as Hurricane Mitch, outbreaks and epidemics are not automatic. Public health problems are a consequence of other issues, such as the destruction or disruption of water supplies." PAHO is coordinating requests from countries affected by the disaster. Honduras and Nicaragua have reported that they need specific medicines, insecticides and equipment for mosquito control, waste disposal systems, health education and communication assistance, hospital equipment, and materials for water purification including granular hypochloride, 5-gallon plastic water jugs, and equipment to measure residual chlorine. Dr. Prado emphasized that PAHO does not support indiscriminate sending of medicines, which can clog the supply delivery system. Without improvements in sanitary conditions, health problems most likely to initially occur are diarrheal diseases, as a consequence of the use of unsafe water, Dr. Prado emphasized. Later on, the confinement of a large number of people in crowded shelters or in the homes of family and friends can generate problems such as diarrheal diseases because of unsafe water or food, as well as skin rashes, conjunctivitis, and other problems related to crowding. Leptospirosis, a disease transmitted by the urine or feces of rodents, can be a problem in flooded areas as well, he said. A health threat that can develop later on is the uncontrolled proliferation of vectors like the mosquitoes that can transmit diseases such as dengue fever, malaria and others. According to Dr. Prado, the response of the health sector to a disaster such as the one that affected Honduras, Nicaragua, and Belize can usually be described in 3 steps. The first is the immediate life-saving first aid to the people hurt in the disaster. The second step, and the most important one, is to provide safe water to as much of the population as possible, to reduce the risk of disease transmission. The last step, which can only be attained in the long run, is to put the health system of the country back on its feet, repairing damages in hospitals, clinics, and health centers, and ensuring that the basic sanitation infrastructure is repaired. PAHO is working with the Central American countries most affected by Hurricane Mitch to coordinate foreign health assistance. This coordination effort is necessary, according to Dr. Prado, to ensure that external aid meets the real needs of the countries. PAHO, which is also the regional office for the Americas of the World Health Organization, issued an emergency appeal for immediate aid to the health sector in Central America after Hurricane Mitch, based on requests from the countries and its own evaluations. The U.S. and Sweden have already responded with $500,000 each in immediate aid, and Canada has given $250,000 and is sending a C-130 transport plane with supplies to Honduras and El Salvador today. Across Central America and in southern Mexico, 10,001 people were dead, 14,202 were missing and 2.78 million were homeless, according to figures.
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October 5, 1998 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1998/10/981005074051.htm | Researcher Fears Backlash Over Inflated Wind Speeds | CLEMSON -- Wind speeds in Hurricanes Bonnie, Earl and Georges were often overstated by the National Hurricane Center, according to a Clemson University researcher, who worries that bad science will lead to future disasters. | "People may not take proper precautions because they've been misled into thinking they've been through far worse storms than they actually have," said Clemson wind engineering professor Peter Sparks. "If winds in Hurricane Georges had blown as hard as stated by official sources, then the whole of the Gulf Coast would be torn apart like South Florida after Hurricane Andrew." Sparks has studied wind conditions in hurricanes for the past 15 years and has testified on wind-safety issues before a Congressional subcommittee. He is part of a research effort at Clemson that focuses on finding ways to strengthen homes and schools against the ravages of high-wind events such as hurricanes. "Bonnie, Earl and Georges were three of the most heavily researched storms in history. Aircraft measurement, dropsondes and data buoys, as well as coastal and inland wind-recording sites, gave researchers a clear picture of what was going on - and the data simply didn't support the claims of the National Hurricane Center," Sparks said. In the most recent example of Hurricane Georges, the National Hurricane Center reported maximum sustained winds of 100 mph as it made landfall. But Sparks said an analysis of information from data buoys and land stations by the Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanic and Aeronautic Administration put the figure at only 84 mph for ocean exposures - which would mean overland speeds would be even lower. The situation in Georges was complicated by some instrumentation problems, Sparks said. Valuable data from automatic weather stations in Gulfport and Pascagoula were lost because neither station had emergency-power capability, a common failing among the more than 900 automatic weather stations deployed by the National Weather Service, FAA and the military in recent years. Data from those stations would have helped to determine the validity of gusts of 175 mph reported at the nearby Keesler Airforce Base in Biloxi, which uses a type of wind-speed measuring device that's been proven to give erroneously high results when wet, Sparks said. He added that erroneous reports also went out after Hurricane Bonnie, with the National Hurricane Center issuing reports that a Category -- hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph had swept over Wilmington, N.C., even as the National Weather Service at Wilmington measured and reported a maximum of only 56 mph. "The scientific information is there, but the National Hurricane Center is not using it properly. Even when we have good data - such as in Wilmington during Bonnie - nobody takes any notice of it. Despite great improvements in instrumentation, data transmission and significant improvements in track forecasts, the National Hurricane Center's reports of prevailing wind conditions have got worse, not better, over the years," Sparks said. The problem has been long-standing, said Sparks. In 1985, he led a National Academy of Sciences team that investigated Hurricane Elena, which made landfall in almost exactly the same place as Georges. Having spent months recovering wind-data from the area, the team concluded that there was no justification for the wind speeds claimed by the National Hurricane Center. "Government officials reported sustained winds of 100 mph and gusts of 175 mph for Georges, yet it's virtually impossible to find any wind damage. We got more accurate reports from the meteorological services in the tiny Caribbean islands than we got from the United States." Wind speeds, as currently reported, are too easily open for misinterpretation by the public and press, Sparks said. For example, the National Hurricane Center uses the term "maximum sustained wind" to describe wind speed averaged over one minute at 33 feet above the surface - a quantity not measured directly by any meteorological station in the world and at odds with the World Meteorological Organization's sustained-wind standard that requires measuring wind over at least a 10-minute period. Since gust speeds are widely reported by weather stations and often quoted by the media, it may make more sense for the National Hurricane Center, in its public advisories, to give wind speeds in terms of gusts instead of the more difficult-to-understand sustained wind speeds, Sparks said. WRITER: Sandy Dees-Baker
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October 5, 1998 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1998/10/981005073747.htm | Hurricane Georges Damages Chandeleur Islands--New Orleans' First Line Of Storm Defense | Aerial flights on Tuesday, two days after Hurricane Georges hit the Mississippi Gulf Coast, revealed what one scientist called the worst damage to the Chandeleur Islands that he had seen in more than a decade. | These barrier islands, about 60 miles east of New Orleans and 30 miles south of Biloxi, Miss., are the first line of defense against storms for eastern Louisiana, especially the New Orleans area, and western Mississippi. The string of islands buffers the mainland from both the wind and storm surges associated with hurricanes, tropical storms and winter storms in the Gulf of Mexico. Dr. Robert E. Stewart, director of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Wetlands Research Center in Lafayette, La., has been involved in studies related to the islands for the past 18 years and video taped the islands as Dr. Thomas Michot, wildlife research biologist, flew. Stewart said, "The concern is that, even if the water goes down some, areas of vegetated land masses will have been swept away on this island chain. When barrier islands are destroyed, the mainlands behind them become more vulnerable to storms." Michot, who has been studying ducks and seagrasses at the Chandeleurs, said, "I have flown over the Chandeleur Islands after every tropical storm and hurricane for the past 10 or 11 years, and I have never seen so much damage. The only things visible on the main island are marshes, and a few dunes and flats of newly deposited sediments. There is no visible beach." The entire island is covered with dozens of overwash channels, making the Gulf of Mexico continuous with the Chandeleur Sound, he added. Michot said that a lighthouse is now standing in open water, about 400 yards north of the nearest land. Before the storm, the lighthouse was on vegetated land, which extended for another 1200 yards north of the lighthouse. Stewart said that before the hurricane there had been dunes higher than the 6-foot high boardwalk near the lighthouse, but that only the very top of the boardwalk is now visible. This indicates that those sand dunes have already been washed away. The Chandeleur Islands are not only important in protecting the mainland, Stewart said, but they also contribute to a recreational and commercial fishery and are one of the four major wintering grounds of migratory redhead ducks. He said that seagrass beds serve as nursery areas for fish and shellfish such as shrimp and crabs and as food for ducks. Stewart added that the water was very turbid when they flew, so they could not see the seagrasses to assess their damage. Both Stewart and Michot predict a good deal of burial of seagrass beds in the backbarrier flats on the shallower Chandeleur Sound side of the islands. Wintering redhead ducks are almost totally dependent on shoalgrass, one of the five seagrass species present on the islands. Michot said, "If shoalgrasses are wiped out on the Chandeleurs, 20,000 redhead ducks that usually winter there will need to find other winter sites along the Gulf Coast in Florida, Texas or Mexico." Researchers at the National Wetlands Research Center plan to fly back over the island soon and begin mapping and monitoring the islands and their seagrass beds. The Center did extensive research during Hurricane Andrew and is still studying the effects of that hurricane, some of which have been published in scholarly journals and described in a general-interest publication, "Willful Winds." The center is also involved in hurricane-related research projects along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Additionally, USGS scientists of the Coastal and Marine Geology Program in St. Petersburg, Fla., are studying the effects of hurricanes. Photos and video clips of the Chandeleur Island damage are available under "What's New" on the center's website As the nation's largest water, earth and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the USGS works in cooperation with more than 2,000 organizations across the country to provide reliable, impartial scientific information to resource managers, planners and other customers. This information is gathered in every state by USGS scientists to minimize the loss of life and property from natural disasters, to contribute to the conservation and the sound economic and physical development of the nation's natural resources and to enhance the quality of life by monitoring water, biological, energy and mineral resources.
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September 26, 1998 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1998/09/980926063202.htm | Researcher Uses "Doppler On Wheels" To Stare Hurricane Georges In The Eye | When a hurricane's spinning mass of rain, lightning and wind reaches shore the last thing you want to do is drive a truck directly into its path. Unless you are atmospheric scientist Joshua Wurman, that is, and you have mounted a large Doppler radar unit on the back of your truck. | For the second time this summer, Wurman and a research team from the University of Oklahoma will drive two such "Doppler on Wheels" units into the face of a hurricane reaching landfall--Hurricane Georges. With funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF), Wurman studies patterns in hurricane winds that may help in forecasting the evolution of these storms once they hit land. "Hurricanes spawn damaging winds well inland," said Wurman, "but they can also cause tornadoes and flooding. We are trying to figure out how patterns of winds and rain develop in hurricanes, and determine why and where a storm will produce floods and funnel clouds."For many years, meteorologists have used Doppler radar at fixed locations to monitor weather patterns, as seen in weather forecasts on television. Due to advances in technology, Doppler radar has evolved to the point where it can be mounted to mobile platforms like Wurman's "Doppler on Wheels."The vehicle itself is an odd-looking configuration of generators, equipment and an operator cabin welded to a large flatbed truck. The most prominent feature, however, is the large conical base and wide dish of the Doppler radar. "Considering that one radar unit is pink and yellow, and the other is blue and green, we do get our fair share of funny looks as we're heading to a storm," said Wurman."The biggest advantage of 'Doppler on Wheels' is that Wurman can collect more data with better precision," said Stephan Nelson, program manager in the NSF's division of atmospheric sciences, which funds Wurman's research. "Hurricanes rarely oblige to move in the path of two correctly spaced Doppler systems. Since we can't move the storm, it's awfully convenient that we can move the radar."In addition to studying hurricanes, these trucks have also been used to study tornadoes. Since the project began in 1995, researchers have taken advantage of the mobility of "Doppler on Wheels" to map, for the first time, tornado winds. With these Doppler maps of tornadoes, they gained new insight into how tornadoes form and evolve. In August, Wurman's team took the mobile radar systems to meet Hurricane Bonnie in North Carolina. While riding through 12 hours of storm, these researchers were the first to observe hurricane wind streaks, intense bursts of wind over a short distance. The wind streaks detected in Bonnie were similar to those that Wurman initially observed during his first hurricane mission in 1996. "These are probably the hallmarks of a landing hurricane," said Wurman.Wind streaks, he hypothesized, are probably caused by boundary layer rolls, portions of the storm where the wind is influenced by the friction between the earth's surface and storm. Peak speeds of these wind streaks can be as much as 50 miles per hour (mph) higher than average winds. "Obviously, short bursts of 120-mph winds can do a lot more damage to houses and trees than 70-mph winds can," Wurman says.Wurman will have another chance to collect data this year as Hurricane Georges reaches the continental United States.
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September 24, 1998 | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1998/09/980924074825.htm | Arecibo Observatory Survives Hurricane Georges' Sweep Across Puerto Rico | ARECIBO, Puerto Rico -- Initial information indicates that the massivereflector dish of Arecibo Observatory apparently sustained minimal damagefrom Hurricane Georges, which swept across Puerto Rico late Monday night,observatory officials report. | In a telephone conversation early Tuesday observatory personnel alsoindicated that the telescope's newly completed dome apparently escapedwithout damage. The 15 employees and visitors using the observatory, atthe time of the hurricane, are reported safe.A small number of panels on the telescope's 1,000-foot diameter reflectorsuffered damage from flying debris. Telephone contact with the observatorywas lost late Tuesday morning, and full assessment of any damage is not yetavailable.As the eye of the hurricane passed just to the south of the telescope, 15people remained at the observatory, according to Donald Campbell, associatedirector of the National Astronomy Ionospheric Center at Cornell Universityin Ithaca, N.Y., which manages the observatory for the National ScienceFoundation (NSF). All were "bunkered down" and protected from thehurricane, he said. The observatory has 140 employees and visitors.There were reports of fallen trees and mud slides around the observatory.Interestingly, at the time of the hurricane, a group of researchers fromClemson University, Clemson, S.C., and from France were making radarobservations of thunderstorms. Instead, they used Arecibo's dish to recordobservations of high-altitude wind speeds in the hurricane throughoutMonday night, using electrical power from an emergency generator.Although government and communications officials say telephone lines areopen to the island, the NAIC and Cornell News Service were not in contactwith the observatory, as of Wednesday morning.The surface of the Arecibo reflector dish is made of 38,800 reflectivealuminum panels, covering an area about the size of 26 football fields.Campbell said that only a few panels on the 16,000 square feet of thedish's surface were lost as the hurricane moved through.The dome above the telescope, which was completed last year, survived thehurricane without damage, Campbell said. The 90-ton, 86-foot diameter domeattached to the end of the 304-foot moveable azimuth arm increases thetelescope's ability to observe the farthest reaches of the universe.Snuggled into a bowl-shaped area in the hills of central Puerto Rico, theradio-radar telescope received a $25 million upgrade in June 1997. It wasbuilt in 1963 by the U.S. Air Force under the initiative of CornellProfessor William Gordon and colleagues. Originally, it was intended tostudy Earth's ionosphere. Today it is used for radio and radar astronomy,as well as atmospheric and ionospheric studies.The Arecibo Observatory was used to discover the first planets observedoutside the solar system, to establish the rotation rate of Mercury and todiscover first pulsar in a binary system. The telescope also has played astarring role in two popular films: "GoldenEye" (1995) and "Contact"(1997).
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