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attacks) and anthropogenic (e.g. deforestation, urbanization, farming)
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disturbances ( Jin and Sader, 2005 ).The ability of any system to detect change depends on its capacity
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to account for variability at one scale (e.g. seasonal variations), while
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identifying change at another (e.g. multi-year trends). As such, change
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in ecosystems can be divided into three classes: (1) seasonal change ,
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driven by annual temperature and rainfall interactions impacting plant
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phenology or proportional cover of land cover types with different
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plant phenology; (2) gradual change such as interannual climate
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variability (e.g. trends in mean annual rainfall) or gradual change in
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land management or land degradation; and (3) abrupt change , caused
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by disturbances such as deforestation, urbanization, floods, and fires.
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Although the value of remotely sensed long term data sets for
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change detection has been firmly established ( de Beurs and Henebry,
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2005 ), only a limited number of time series change detection methods
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have been developed. Two major challenges stand out. First, methods
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must allow for the detection of changes within complete long term
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data sets while accounting for seasonal variation. Estimating change
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from remotely sensed data is not straightforward, since time series
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contain a combination of seasonal, gradual and abrupt changes, in
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addition to noise that originates from remnant geometric errors,
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atmospheric scatter and cloud effects ( Roy et al., 2002 ). ThoroughRemote Sensing of Environment 114 (2010) 106 –115
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⁎Corresponding author. Tel.: +61 395452265; fax: +61 395452448.
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E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Verbesselt).
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0034-4257/$ –see front matter. Crown Copyright © 2009 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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doi:10.1016/j.rse.2009.08.014
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Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
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Remote Sensing of Environment
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journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rse
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reviews of existing change detection methods by Coppin et al. (2004)
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andLu et al. (2004) have shown, however, that most methods focus on
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short image time series (only 2 –5 images). The risk of confounding
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variability with change is high with infrequent images, since
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disturbances can occur in between image acquisitions ( de Beurs and
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Henebry, 2005 ). Several approaches have been proposed for analyzing
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image time series, such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) ( Crist
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and Cicone, 1984 ), wavelet decomposition ( Anyamba and Eastman,
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1996 ), Fourier analysis ( Azzali and Menenti, 2000 ) and Change Vector
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Analysis (CVA) ( Lambin and Strahler, 1994 ). These time series analysis
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approaches discriminate noise from the signal by its temporal
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characteristics but involve some type of transformation designed to
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isolate dominant components of the variation across years of imagery
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through the multi-temporal spectral space. The challenge of these
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methods is the labeling of the change components, because each
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analysis depends entirely on the speci fic image series analyzed.
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Compared to PCA, Fourier analysis, and wavelet decomposition, CVA
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allows the interpretation of change processes, but can still only be
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performed between two periods of time (e.g. between years or
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growing seasons) ( Lambin and Strahler, 1994 ), which makes the
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analysis dependent on the selection of these periods. Furthermore,
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change in time series is often masked by seasonality driven by yearly
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temperature and rainfall variation. Existing change detection techni-
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ques minimize seasonal variation by focussing on speci fic periods
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within a year (e.g. growing season) ( Coppin et al., 2004 ), temporally
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summarizing time series data ( Bontemps et al., 2008; Fensholt et al.,
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2009 ) or normalizing re flectance values per land cover type ( Healey
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et al., 2005 ) instead of explicitly accounting for seasonality.
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Second, change detection techniques need to be independent of
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speci fic thresholds or change trajectories. Change detection methods
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that require determination of thresholds often produce misleading
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results due to different spectral and phenological characteristics of
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land cover types ( Lu et al., 2004 ). The determination of thresholds
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adds signi ficant cost to efforts to expand change detection to large
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areas. Trajectory based change detection has been proposed to move
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towards a threshold independent change detection by characterizing
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change by its temporal signature ( Hayes and Cohen, 2007; Kennedy
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et al., 2007 ). This approach requires the de finition of the change
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trajectory speci fic for the type of change to be detected and spectral
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data to be analyzed (e.g. short-wave infrared or near-infrared basedindices). Furthermore, the method will only function if the observed
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spectral trajectory matches one of the hypothesized trajectories.
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Trajectory based change detection can be interpreted as a supervised
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change detection method while there is a need for an unsupervised,
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more generic, change detection approach independent of the data
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type and change trajectory.
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The purpose of this research is to develop a generic change detection
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approach for time series, involving the detection and characterization of
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Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST). BFAST integrates the
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iterative decomposition of time series into trend, seasonal and noise
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components with methods for detecting changes, without the need to
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select a reference period, set a threshold, or de fine a change trajectory.
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The main objectives are:
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(1) The detection of multiple abrupt changes in the seasonal and
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trend components of the time series; and
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(2) The characterization of gradual and abrupt ecosystem change
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by deriving the time, magnitude, and direction of change
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within the trend component of the time series.
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We assessed BFAST for a large range of ecosystems by simulating
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Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series with
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varying amounts of seasonal variation and noise, and by adding
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abrupt changes with different magnitudes. We applied the approach
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on MODIS 16-day image composites (hereafter called 16-day time
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series) to detect major changes in a forested area in south eastern
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Australia. The approach is not speci fic to a particular data type andcould be applied to detect and characterize changes within other
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remotely sensed image time series (e.g. Landsat) or be integrated
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within monitoring frameworks and used as an alarm system to
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provide information on when and where changes occur.
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2. Iterative change detection
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We propose a method that integrates the iterative decomposition
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of time series into trend, seasonal and noise components with
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methods for detecting and characterizing changes (i.e. breakpoints)
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within time series. Standard time series decomposition methods
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