id
int64 1
141k
| title
stringlengths 15
150
| body
stringlengths 43
35.6k
| tags
stringlengths 1
118
| label
int64 0
1
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
59,415 | How come there are Latvian non-citizens (nepilsoņi) of EU ethnicities? | <p>As of January 2020, there are some 220,000 Latvian non-citizens (nepilsoņi). What surprises me is that 3.5% of them are ethnic Poles (17.8% of the population group), another 2.4% are ethnic Lithuanians (20.6% of the population group), also a small number of Germans (18% of the population group). Their ties with an EU member state might make them eligible to be recognized as a citizen of that state, or have their citizenship of that state restored, which would make them EU citizens and put them in a more favorable legal position. I am wondering what is keeping these people—specifically those of now-EU origin—from either becoming naturalized Latvian citizens, or seeking recognition of their citizenship by their state of ethnicity.</p>
<h1>Background</h1>
<p>Most <em>nepilsoņi</em> are citizens of other former Soviet republics who had their permanent residence in Latvia at the time Latvia regained its independence. About two thirds of them are ethnic Russians.</p>
<p>While explicitly not considered stateless under Latvian law, they are also not citizens of Latvia (or any other state). They do enjoy some rights, such as residence in Latvia, visa-free travel in the Schengen area and access to Latvian consulary services abroad, but cannot vote or run for public offices.</p>
<h1>Statstics</h1>
<p>Of 735,000 <em>nepilsoņi</em> in 1995, some 138,000 got naturalized by 2011, while another 330,000 took on other citizenships. While this likely included some of the aforementioned groups, I have no figures on those, and the ones still left as of early 2020 might be those for whom these two were not an option.</p>
<h1>Obstacles to acquiring Latvian citizenship</h1>
<p>A 2003 survey among <em>nepilsoņi</em> found that the main reasons for not getting naturalized were:</p>
<ul>
<li>belief that they should be entitled to Latvian citizenship automatically, rather than having to seek naturalization</li>
<li>hoping for the procedure to be simplified in the future</li>
<li>easier travel to some other ex-Soviet states for <em>nepilsoņi</em></li>
<li>concerns about passing the required tests</li>
<li>no particular need to become citizens</li>
<li>fees</li>
<li>lack of time</li>
<li>naturalization being demeaning</li>
<li>preference for citizenship other than Latvian</li>
</ul>
<p>However, individual reasons may vary greatly between ethnic groups, which was not considered here. Also, the question focuses only on naturalization, not on exercising potential entitlements to other citizenships.</p>
<h1>Obstacles to other EU citizenships</h1>
<p>As obstacles to other EU citizenships I would see:</p>
<ul>
<li>legislation: not every national (by ethnicity) may be eligible for citizenship</li>
<li>difficulty with proving eligibility (ethnicity or being a descendant of a citizen of that state)</li>
<li>conscription, though that would only apply in certain cases (Germany has suspended conscription since 2011 but may reinstate it in case of war, Lithuania did so 2008–2015, conscription may not apply to females or people above a certain age, etc.)</li>
<li>less stringent visa requirements when traveling to other ex-Soviet states, compared to EU citizens—though this particular group would be the least likely to benefit from that</li>
</ul>
<p>However, I have no idea to what extent this is really a factor in people’s decisions.</p>
<p><strong>So what is preventing these particular groups of <em>nepilsoņi</em> from seeking either naturalization in Latvia or recognition of another EU citizenship?</strong></p>
 | citizenship latvia | 0 |
59,419 | What arguments are there for not passing anti-SLAPP laws? | <p>A <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_lawsuit_against_public_participation" rel="nofollow noreferrer">SLAPP</a> (strategic lawsuits against public participation) lawsuit is a frivolous lawsuit made by someone who does not believe they can win. The main reason for them is to cause the defendant significant legal fees in the hopes the defendant will concede, despite having a winning case, to avoid the legal costs. The threat of a SLAPP lawsuit is allegedly used by many of the larger companies, or richest individuals, to bully other's into going along with their wishes to avoid being forced to pay prohibitively high defense costs to defend against a SLAPP.</p>
<p>As of now 31 states, and DC, have some form of anti-SLAPP laws. These laws usually consist of either a way to get a case thrown out very early if it is clearly frivolous, to avoid most fees, and/or a means to force the person suing to pay for the defendant's legal fees if it's ultimately determined the lawsuit was a SLAPP.</p>
<p>However, there are many situations where a lawsuit could be filed in any state, such as one involving anything said or done on TV or the internet. In these cases individuals wanting to file a SLAP lawsuit will find a reason to justify filing the lawsuit in one of the states without anti-SLAP laws, thus making SLAP lawsuits a real threat despite the majority of states having anti-SLAPP laws.</p>
<p>I'm wondering why there isn't universal anti-SLAPP laws. That is to say both why haven't the other 20 states created anti-SLAPP laws, and why hasn't the federal government attempted to enact any kind of anti-SLAPP legislation?</p>
<p>Are there arguments being made against anti-SLAPP legislation? I'm also wondering it the support, or denial, of anti-SLAPP legislation falls along political lines.</p>
 | united states law | 0 |
59,422 | In the present health crisis, do states plan to open their polling station for longer hours? | <p>I am always astonished at the shortness of the voting day in the US.</p>
<p>In Britain at general elections the polls are open across the whole country from 7.00am till 10.00pm. As a result they do not attract the lengthy queues that many US stations do, where people wait for hours to vote. And people can vote either on their way to or from the pub!</p>
<p>At a time of Covid infection it would seem to make sense to lengthen the voting day to allow for social distancing.</p>
<p>Is this happening?</p>
 | united states election voting | 0 |
59,425 | Is an expansion of the US Supreme Court really possible? | <p>With the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett, the idea of expanding the US Supreme Court has caught fire among some Democrats. With a 6-3 conservative majority on the court, prominent progressive Democrats like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez argue that if Democrats win this election term, they should seriously consider increasing the number of justices. In this context, is an expansion of the US Supreme Court really possible?</p>
<p>Assuming Democrats control the presidency, senate, and house in 2021, what can Republican legislators do to stop a SCOTUS expansion?</p>
 | united states supreme court republican party democratic party | 1 |
59,428 | Couldn't the Senate Democrats have stalled the SCOTUS vote using impeachment? | <p>I was interested to learn more about the procedures for impeachment and while going through the Senate rules, I found it odd that it stated that any articles of impeachment that are sent to the Senate have to be answered by 1pm the next day and that all other business of the Senate stops (including SCOTUS confirmations). In theory, couldn't the Democrats from the House just sent over articles of impeachment every day, thereby clogging the works? I realize that it would only take a rules change to fix this oversight, or am I missing something else. There is no Constitutional requirement for the House to only send over articles it has good faith in, so it could have been impeachment for any and every person in office.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/resources/pdf/3_1986SenatesImpeachmentRules.pdf" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/resources/pdf/3_1986SenatesImpeachmentRules.pdf</a> seems to state that once the articles are presented to the Senate they have no choice but to start a trial.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Upon such articles being presented to the Senate, the Senate shall, at 1 o’clock afternoon of the day (Sunday excepted) following such presentation, or sooner if ordered by the Senate, proceed to the consideration of such articles and shall continue in session from day to day (Sundays excepted) after the trial shall commence (unless otherwise ordered by the Senate) until final judgment shall be rendered, and so much longer as may, in its judgment, be needful.</p>
</blockquote>
 | united states congress senate impeachment | 0 |
59,430 | Could the senate change the structure of the Supreme Court, not just the number of judges? | <p>Increasing the count to 13 and loading it with Dems would be one way to "get even" but seems kind of likely to backfire. <a href="https://twitter.com/senwhitehouse/status/1250170698645090312?lang=en" rel="nofollow noreferrer">We've already seen the analysis that Republican Judges vote differently than Democratic Judges and vice versa</a>, so could the Senate fix the packing problem in a way other than just adding 4 Democrats to the bench?</p>
<p>What if they altered the structure to be 18 judges with 9 reserved for each party and then before the start of every case they drew lots to decide which 9 judges would hear that case. This way you could never be assured your case at the supreme court would be seen "favorably" by either party. What it would do is allow the supreme court to hear twice as many cases (maybe?) by splitting it into 2, 9 judge panels that each handled a separate case. My guess is we would need 2 chief justices and they would have to pull a straw before the others did so that we have a guaranteed "chief" on each panel, or maybe one panel doesn't get a "chief" if the constitution prohibits 2 "chiefs".</p>
<p>Adding this randomizer makes it less likely that packing the court works for either side and reserving 9 for each side means packing can't ever happen. What does pose a problem is it excludes any potential 3rd party in the future. Yes, there is the possibility that some shenanigans are pulled in the choice of judges for a case, but surely we can fix that with technology.</p>
<p>I don't see how the constitution prohibits this, but I'm sure there is some kind of obscure something I don't know too.</p>
 | united states supreme court | 0 |
59,442 | Why do India and Azerbaijan purchase so many weapons from Israel? | <p>My question is: why Israel in particular?</p>
<p>For India, the entire EU and the USA are open let alone Russia. Indian's main purchases from Israel were SAM missile and AWACS. They could have bought SAM from France or Italy, and AWACS from the USA.</p>
<p>For Azerbaijan, Turkey is sufficient.</p>
<p>Why do these two countries go to Israel?</p>
 | israel weapons | 0 |
59,443 | Why are there so few polling sites in New York? | <p>Early voting is open in many places, including New York City.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/nyregion/nyc-early-voting-election.html" rel="noreferrer">The New York Times reports</a> long lines at the polling stations with waiting times of several hours, sometimes deterring voters.</p>
<p>It reports that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>New York City has 88 early polling sites for five million registered voters. The mayor recommended at least 100.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>By contrast, in 2017 Berlin/Germany, where I live, had <a href="https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/berlinwahlkarte2017/" rel="noreferrer">1779 polling sites</a> for 2.5 million eligible voters of which <a href="https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BU2017/AFSPRAES/details_gemeinde-11000000-berlin_gesamt.html" rel="noreferrer">75% voted</a>. (To be fair, each "site", catering to a specific election district, may just be a single large room with several voting booths in a building like a school. A handful of these sites ("Wahllokale") are typically bundled in one building, at least in cities.) I think I have never walked more than 1000 meters to a polling site and never waited for more than one minute to cast my vote. It is a relaxed and smooth affair. As an aside, there is no early voting, so all votes are cast on a single Sunday.</p>
<p>Clearly, the New York situation is an organizational failure, and one that would be comparatively easy to fix. This failure to properly organize the foundational procedure of any democracy is baffling, even more so in the U.S. which is a pioneer and, in spite of everything, a standard-bearer of democracy.</p>
<p>Being one of the most Democratic leaning cities in the country with a Democratic mayor, in a state with a Democratic governor, we can safely assume that this is not an act of voter suppression.</p>
<p>What then is the reason that there are so few polling sites in New York?</p>
 | united states election voting procedure new york | 1 |
59,444 | Do voice assistants such as Alexa commonly have political opinions and do people believe them unthinkingly? | <p>If we ask Alexa about a subject such as religion, e.g. "Do you believe in God?" we get a neutral reply "People all have their own views on religion."</p>
<p>If we ask about party politics, "Alexa, should I vote Democrat or Republican", we get "You should vote for the party that best reflects your views."</p>
<hr />
<p>As an experiment I asked, "Alexa, do you support Black Lives Matter?"</p>
<p>Here was the answer:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Black lives matter. I believe in racial equality, I stand in
solidarity with the black community in the fight against systemic
racism and injustice. To learn how you can can take action I recommend
visiting blacklivesmatter.com ...</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While none of the opinions stated are particularly controversial for most people, I wonder how we should react to a non-sentient robot claiming to hold a particular set of beliefs and principles.</p>
<p><strong>Question</strong></p>
<p>Is there any existing or proposed legal restriction on voice assistants expressing views rather than merely reporting facts?</p>
<p>Are there any studies to show how much influence voice-assistants have and whether users tend to believe them unthinkingly.</p>
<hr />
<p><strong>Motivation</strong></p>
<p>This post does not pertain to my own political views. It does however concern me that there may be no clear line between opinion (however conventional, correct, or well-accepted) and fact when asking questions of a voice-assistant. Clearly black lives do matter but there is a difference for me between stating this and subscribing to a particular website that may or may not contain other political overtones.</p>
<p>Note: Although I asked Alexa about the US Elections, I am British.</p>
 | public opinion discrimination technology | 0 |
59,453 | Is creation of new states via partitioning really possible in the US? Are there any precedents to this? | <p><strong>Background:</strong> Senate provides as much representation to Wyoming with a population of 580,000, as California with 39.5 million inhabitants. According to <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senates-rural-skew-makes-it-very-hard-for-democrats-to-win-the-supreme-court/" rel="noreferrer">[1]</a></p>
<pre><code>| State | Rural | Exurban | Suburban | Urban |

|----------------------------------|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|-------------|

| Population | 25% | 23% | 27% | 25% |

| Equivalent senate representation | 35 senators | 26 senators | 25 senators | 14 senators |

</code></pre>
<p>This has lead to several prominent suggestions such as <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/do-you-want-51-or-52-states-next-year/" rel="noreferrer">granting</a> <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/9/18/20863026/dc-statehood-george-floyd-puerto-rico-statehood" rel="noreferrer">statehood</a> to Washington DC and Puerto Rico. Several others have also opined to partition existing states like California, New York, and Massachusetts into North and South California, or an East and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Massachusetts#:%7E:text=The%20population%20amounted%20to%20approximately,of%20Massachusetts%2C%20which%20was%206%2C349%2C097." rel="noreferrer">West Massachusetts</a> and a new state of Long Island. Each of these states would be geographically larger than Rhode Island and more populous than Wyoming<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/case-new-states/606148/" rel="noreferrer"> [2</a>,<a href="https://theweek.com/articles/670638/ferocious-plan-democrats-reconquer-america" rel="noreferrer">3]</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Question:</strong> In this context, is the partitioning of the larger states really possible in the US? Are there any precedents to the creation of new states via partitioning in the US? Assuming Democrats control the presidency, senate, and house in 2021, what can Republican legislators do to stop such an action?</p>
 | united states republican party democratic party statehood partition | 1 |
59,457 | What do advocates of expanding SCOTUS think about the future response? | <p>A <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/10/26/prove-him-wrong-progressives-demand-democrats-accept-mcconnells-challenge-expand" rel="nofollow noreferrer">number of progressives</a> want to expand the Supreme Court under a Democratic Congress and Democratic President.</p>
<p>What's the working hypothesis of the people who want to pack the court,for what happens in the future? Have they professed any such views, or had to respond to any such line of questioning from journalists?</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Will an opposing party (e.g. Republicans) never again control Congress and the Presidency like in 2017-2018?</p>
</li>
<li><p>Will a opposing party control government but refrain from packing the Supreme Court again?</p>
</li>
<li><p>Will an opposing party indeed pack the Supreme Court in the future, but it's still worth taking the advantage now?</p>
</li>
<li><p>Something else?</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>What is the plan?</p>
 | united states supreme court | 0 |
59,464 | What actions have governments critical of Macron's response to the murder of Samuel Paty called for? | <p>Following the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Samuel_Paty#cite_ref-66" rel="noreferrer">murder of Samuel Paty</a> in France two weeks ago, Emmanuel Macron gave <a href="https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2020/10/21/ceremonie-dhommage-national-a-samuel-paty-a-la-sorbonne" rel="noreferrer">a speech [fr]</a> in which he defended freedom of expression and said "we won't give up on caricatures". This speech caused a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/27/muslim-backlash-against-macron-gathers-pace-after-police-raids" rel="noreferrer">massive backlash in the Muslim world</a>, with protests and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/26/france-islamic-end-boycott-french-goods-macron-muhammad-cartoons" rel="noreferrer">calls to boycott</a>. There were also <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/27/world-reaction-to-macron" rel="noreferrer">official reactions from the governments of several Muslim countries</a>, apparently interpreting Macron's support of the caricatures as an insult to Islam.</p>
<p>Clearly the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Hebdo" rel="noreferrer">Charlie Hebdo</a> caricatures are provocative and intended to mock Islam, so they can understandably be perceived by Muslims as an insult to their faith (it's worth mentioning that Charlie Hebdo didn't spare any other religion either). While the crowds protesting in Muslim countries might not always have a clear understanding of the cultural context and the significance of freedom of speech in a country like France, it's likely that government officials are better informed. Thus they must be aware that in most Western democracies freedom of speech implies the possibility to criticize religion, and that France is unlikely to introduce a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blasphemy_law" rel="noreferrer">law against blasphemy</a>.</p>
<p>I understand that it's very likely that these official reactions obey mostly domestic political reasons, i.e. these leader need to show to their own population that they defend Islam. Still I'm curious whether any of them made any concrete request to France and/or Macron: <strong>are these governments asking Macron to do anything concretely? If yes what?</strong></p>
 | france religion freedom of speech islam | 1 |
59,465 | Can congress/president make the COVID19 vaccine mandatory in the US? Are there any national precedents concerning mandatory vaccination? | <p><strong>Background</strong> Human clinical trials to determine the safety and efficacy of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 started as early as March, and currently, 10 have reached final states of testing according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">1</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Question</strong> Assuming we identify a safe vaccine using clinical trials, can congress/president make the COVID19 vaccine mandatory in the US? Are there any national precedents concerning mandatory vaccination?</p>
 | united states president congress vaccine | 1 |
59,466 | Why Georgia is turning blue rapidly? | <p>Georgia seems <a href="https://www.270towin.com/states/georgia" rel="noreferrer">red</a> from the beginning of 21st century. In this time voted presidents from republican party. Both the senators are from republican party. Even in the last election when there was strong third party candidates Trump still got more than half of the vote.</p>
<p>However recent <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/" rel="noreferrer">polls</a> suggest that Biden is ahead in the race. Not only that democrats are ahead in senate polls too. What is the main causes behind the apparent rise of the democrats in a deep south state like Georgia?</p>
 | united states republican party democratic party | 1 |
59,469 | Would Joe Biden lift the sanctions imposed on Huawei if he wins? | <p>Has Joe Biden specifically said anything about lifting sanctions imposed on Huawei if he wins the election?</p>
 | united states trade sanctions joe biden | 1 |
59,470 | Would 2020 election decide whether Mr. Pompeo stay in power or not? | <p>Mike Pompeo currently serves as United States Secretary of State. Does the upcoming election decide whether Mr. Pompeo stays in power or not?</p>
 | united states donald trump china | 1 |
59,482 | Does freedom of speech mean freedom to mock everything? | <p>It's widely known that in most western countries, it's allowed to mock religion - because of freedom of speech.</p>
<p>Does freedom of speech allow one to mock everything, or are there taboo subjects that cannot be mocked?</p>
 | human rights freedom of speech western world | 1 |
59,483 | Are there any tangible advantages for a country to be a Commonwealth realm? | <p>For bigger and wealthier <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_realm" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Commonwealth realms</a>, it is not much of a problem to host the monarch for a week. Howsoever meagre it may be, the nation still has to pay respect to their Queen, host her, and therefore some official money collected from tax payers is spent on the Queen. Are there any advantages for the other nations to still call the British monarch their monarch?</p>
<p>Not to be confused with : Commonwealth of Nations : <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Nations" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Nations</a></p>
 | united kingdom monarchy | 1 |
59,485 | Future of International Relations | <p>What will be the difference in our international relations with Europe and Asia if Trump or Biden gets elected?</p>
<p>Trump always claims that he is better for the economy, but globally, who would be better for the economy of the working class or the people who buy products internationally?</p>
<p>Thanks, I just need this because I need to write a paper on international economy and relations.</p>
 | united states donald trump international relations joe biden | 0 |
59,489 | Social Media & the US Presidential Election | <p>In what ways will social media impact the election for president, and will it help Biden or Trump more?</p>
<p>I have been doing some research on it and in the last election, and in the following Wikipedia article, it shows the campaigns of both Trump and Hilary Clinton. According to the article, it seems like Trump was more effective on social media than Clinton was. Do you think that Biden will take that edge from Trump in the 2020 presidential election?</p>
<p>Link below to earlier referenced Wikipedia article:</p>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media_in_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#:%7E:text=President%2Delect%20Donald%20Trump%20utilized,than%20%5Bhe%5D%20spent%22" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media_in_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#:~:text=President%2Delect%20Donald%20Trump%20utilized,than%20%5Bhe%5D%20spent%22</a>.</p>
 | united states donald trump presidential election social media joe biden | 0 |
59,495 | Can the federal government of the United States influence when ballot totals are announced? | <p>Would it be legal for the federal government of the United States to introduce a law, with words to the effect of:</p>
<p><em>"No results of any congressional, senatorial, or presidential election may be announced until polls have closed in all participating states."</em></p>
<p>Whilst I believe the conduct of the elections is in near complete control of the state, would this extend to announcement of the results?</p>
<p>The rationale behind this law would be to prevent announcing earlier results in an attempt to influence later voters - for instance apparently the first polls will close at 1800 Eastern Time in Indiana and Kentucky, at which time some voters in Alaska will apparently still have <a href="https://www.270towin.com/poll-closing-times" rel="nofollow noreferrer">7 additional hours to cast their ballot.</a> A similar provision applies in European Parliamentary elections, where votes are not permitted to be counted until Sunday, when the final polls close.</p>
 | united states election presidential election federalism | 1 |
59,504 | Why don't the states in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact apportion their electoral votes by congressional district? | <p>If the goal is to get the electoral college to better reflect the popular vote, the simple solution is to avoid the winner-take-all system and apportion votes by congressional district based on the popular vote in the state. So why don't the states who signed the interstate compact do exactly that? It does not require any other states to go along with it and can have an immediate effect.</p>
 | united states election presidential election na po vo inter co | 0 |
59,509 | Did Susan Collins explain why she voted against Amy Coney Barrett's nomination? | <p>Susan Collins of Maine was the only Republican who voted against Amy Coney Barrett's nomination to the Supreme Court. Has she explained why she did so?</p>
 | united states supreme court republican party | 0 |
59,515 | Is taking medication enough to lose the presidency? | <p><em>The following question is inspired by the events of Season 2 of</em> House of Cards. <em>While the original inspiration is a television show, the question is firmly about real-world politics. Apologies if mentioning TV shows is a bit gauche. Oh, and <strong>SPOILER WARNING</strong>, obviously.</em></p>
<p>In <em>House of Cards</em>, Garrett Walker resigns as President of the United States, leaving the presidency to Vice President Frank Underwood. This follows from the announcement of intended impeachment hearings, and the perception that he would be impeached and removed from office were he not to resign. The whole process felt a bit rushed to me, and seemed to stem from three primary accusations against the President:</p>
<ol>
<li>He participated in a scheme to launder Chinese money into US campaign funds</li>
<li>He was going through marriage counseling with his wife</li>
<li>He was taking medication to help with unnamed mental concerns, likely anxiety</li>
</ol>
<p>Clearly, only the first of the three is a violation of the law, but it wasn't until the second and third were publicly revealed that sentiment turned toward impeachment. Further, several political opponents are shown questioning the President's ability to lead not as a result of the first accusation, but rather because of the latter two, chiefly the third.</p>
<p>Personally, I would view the first as a grave source of concern, but the second and third as immaterial. Who cares if the President is having marriage troubles? About half of all marriages end in divorce, I might view a President <em>more highly</em> if I knew they were willing to see someone about it. Why does it matter that the President takes medication? Life is stressful.</p>
<p>Is it realistic that public perception would turn against a sitting President to the point of impeachment due to taking medication for mental health? I realize that the other two accusations muddy the waters significantly, but I'm really asking why the medication is a factor at all, and if it would be in a real-life presidency.</p>
 | united states president impeachment public opinion | 0 |
59,516 | Shared Sovereignty vs Indivisible Sovereignty | <p>I came across these two words, "Shared Sovereignty" and "Indivisible Sovereignty" in the book I was reading: <a href="https://g.co/kgs/dsB2Nn" rel="nofollow noreferrer">From Plassey to Partition and After A History of Modern India</a>. I will quote the paragraph:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Ayesha Jalal argues, "required a political arrangement capable of
accommodating cultural differences." They looked for "shared
sovereignty"; they were not against a united India but contested
Congress's aim to indivisible sovereignty.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>What is the difference between <em>Shared Sovereignty</em> and <em>Indivisible Sovereignty</em>?</p>
 | india terminology sovereignty | 1 |
59,524 | Why is a second Scottish referendum proposed? | <p>Majority of the people voted to stay together in the 2014 referendum. Why is a second referendum proposed? Does it have something to do with Brexit?</p>
<p>Thanks</p>
 | united kingdom independence scotland summary request | 1 |
59,529 | Would the rest of the UK lose anything more than honor if Scotland exits the UK? | <p>The nations of the UK are independent nations that share resources with each other, and sometimes a feeling of oneness and fraternity is seen among the good people of that land. Emotions are subjective. Would the rest of the UK have anything "real" to lose if Scotland exits the UK?</p>
 | united kingdom independence scotland secession | 1 |
59,535 | Do Presidential Campaigns often visit non-competitive states in the days right before the election? | <p>According to the FiveThirtyEight polling averages, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/" rel="noreferrer">the most competitive states</a> Trump needs to push him over 270 electoral votes are:</p>
<ul>
<li>Florida - where Biden <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/" rel="noreferrer">leads by +2</a></li>
<li>Arizona - <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/" rel="noreferrer">Biden +3</a></li>
<li>Pennsylvania - <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/" rel="noreferrer">Biden + 5</a></li>
</ul>
<p>Pennsylvania alone has 20 electoral votes and winning without it seems unlikely. Given his weak polling numbers, one would expect Trump to spend all of his time campaigning in these crucial states to try and improve his numbers right before the election.</p>
<p>Instead, with less than 100 hours to go, Trump is actually <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/27/politics/trump-campaign-florida/index.html" rel="noreferrer">pulling his resources out of Florida</a> and <strong>Both</strong> campaigns are flying directly to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/30/us/trump-biden-election/biden-and-trump-will-criss-cross-the-midwest-as-the-campaign-enters-its-last-weekend" rel="noreferrer">Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan</a> this Friday. This move makes no sense to me, seeing that the polling averages have Biden up by <strong>+8</strong>, <strong>+8.6</strong> and <strong>+8.6</strong> respectively. If the polls are actually correct, that seems like a insurmountable lead. In fact, the state of Minnesota has not even gone for the Republican since 1972 and would not be necessary for Trump to get to 270 electoral votes. The states of Florida, Arizona and Pennsylvania are very necessary.</p>
<p>So why are both campaigns spending crucial resources in these supposedly non-competitive states in the days right before election?</p>
 | united states presidential election electoral college | 1 |
59,537 | What prevents an all-out war against ISIS and its allies? | <p>Why may not nations (even if they aren't friendly with each other) declare an all-out war against ISIS and its allies?</p>
 | war terrorism islamic state | 0 |
59,539 | What is going on with the constitutional court in Ukraine? | <p>Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted a bill to the Verkhovna Rada (Supreme Council of Ukraine) <a href="https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3126600-zelensky-proposes-terminating-powers-of-all-constitutional-court-judges.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">proposing to terminate the powers of all Constitutional Court judges</a>.</p>
<p>It's a bit of a sudden move for a democratic state and I'm unsure if it is allowed by the Ukrainian constitution.</p>
<p>Since the Constitutional Court is part of the Judiciary and normally the executive won't/can't/shouldn't interfere with its normal operations, <strong>what prompted Zelensky's unprecedented actions in this case?</strong></p>
 | law constitution democracy ukraine judiciary | 1 |
59,550 | Why is Donald Trump positively rated in Africa? | <p>From a <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/13778/why-africa-gives-thumbs-up-to-donald-trumps-america/" rel="noreferrer">report</a>, I gained knowledge that Donald Trump is mostly liked in the African Continent in opposition to other regions like the European Continent! I know under Trump that there is a foreign policy as I've seen Trump's daughter with Kwesi Quartey. What is the reason for such positivity apart from African Nations always supporting the American Dream?</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is one continent where Trump’s image is unscathed – Africa. Not all of Africa, of course. In the Maghreb, from Rabat to Tripoli and Cairo, the Trump administration’s popularity indices are at their lowest. Only 16% of Moroccans and Tunisians see value in Trump’s foreign policies. Overall, with an approval rate of 52%, Africa has a positive image of Trump’s America.</p>
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>
<blockquote>
<p>Yet he is more popular in Africa than in any other region, according to a 25-nation survey by Pew, a pollster. Some 59% of Nigerians and 56% of Kenyans believe he is a positive influence on world affairs. South Africans are less keen: only 39% express confidence in Mr Trump.</p>
</blockquote>
</li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/dzgMD.jpg" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/dzgMD.jpg" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
<p>Note: I am grateful for every help concerning my question and I'm happy if the question is taken down of site is seen as inappropriate for the Politics site!</p>
 | united states donald trump international relations africa african union | 0 |
59,556 | When the dictators execute the coup and become the head of the country do they pay the international debts of country? | <p>There are so many coups happened in the history, and many of them in 20th century only, and after every coup a single man becomes the main head of the country, often called as dictator. My question is if some army head, political radical or someone similar executes the coup and becomes the main head of the country by terminating the democracy then what will be his <em>responsibility</em> towards the international relations that his nation had before him?</p>
<p>Let's assume for simplicity that his nation took a loan from international <em>market</em>, and the debt was quite heavy on the country. It seems quite obvious that if he wouldn't pay the debts and try to make all the previous contracts <em>dead</em> he wouldn't be treated friendly by the international counter-parts. So, what it is that those dictators do after acquiring the power? Examples of international policies of the notorious dictators (that is those of Germany, Italy and Russia) will be preferred.</p>
<p><strong>UPDATE:</strong> Some of the answers to this question have stated that "paying debt" or any other international obligation has little to do with the <em>regime</em>. I'm a little skeptical of that, as we know that developed countries like US force the developing countries of Asia to take part in international trade no matter if they produce enough food to feed their citizens, so if a dictator comes up (through some revolutionary method) to power and tries to do something against the <em>contracts</em> he will surely be sorely treated by the developed countries. A democratic government might <em>surrender</em> to the debt, these governments (if under debt) will say to the high economic countries that they are unable to pay the debt and consequently developed countries will see it as an opportunity to establish a monopoly in that country. But in the case of dictators (they hardly give up or surrender) they might say "from now on every agreement of the previous government is officially announced to be null and void" and then he will start getting international pressure. So, I'm a little less inclined to accept that democratic government and dictatorship will behave (even theoretically) similarly towards the international relations.</p>
 | international relations debt dictatorship coup | 0 |
59,561 | What is the earliest time we might be reasonably sure who won the US 2020 Presidential election? | <p>With all the absentee votes and the different rules in different states (and counties!), I find it hard to say at which time we can expect the result of which state.</p>
<p>If Trump wins the election it will probably be a tight race and it will take time to make sure this is really the case.</p>
<p>If Biden wins, he might already have won before all the states have finished counting.</p>
<p>What would be a good estimate for the earliest time at which Biden might have won the election?</p>
 | united states donald trump presidential election joe biden | 1 |
59,566 | Does trust of strangers influence how likely someone is to answer a poll from a stranger? | <p>I've always wondered about type of people who take surveys. Who among us would take a random call in the middle of the day from a perfect stranger and spending the next 30 minutes answering dozens of extremely intrusive questions about your personal life and political beliefs?</p>
<p>According to Pew, survey response rates have fallen precipitously in recent years to a new low of 6%: <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/FT_19.02.27_ATP1_Afterbriefplateau_2.png?resize=640,750" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/FT_19.02.27_ATP1_Afterbriefplateau_2.png?resize=640,750" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
<p>From my research, I noticed that a key difference between Liberals and Conservatives is how <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0052970" rel="noreferrer">trusting</a> <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-human-beast/201210/why-liberal-hearts-bleed-and-conservatives-dont" rel="noreferrer">they are of strangers</a></p>
<p>My thinking is that if a person is less trusting of others, then they are more likely to use a call blocker on their phone and an adblocker on the Internet. If a stranger does manage to contact them, they are less likely to have a 30 minute chat about all of their most deeply held beliefs.</p>
<p>Indeed, a study recently found that <a href="https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-poll-respondent-honesty/" rel="noreferrer">11.7% of Republicans admitted they would not give their true opinion to a pollster vs 5.4% of Democrats.</a> The top 4 cited reason were:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>A lack of trust in phone polls as truly being anonymous.</p>
</li>
<li><p>An apprehension to associate their phone numbers with recorded responses.</p>
</li>
<li><p>Fear that their responses will become public in some manner.</p>
</li>
<li><p>Fear of reprisal and related detrimental impact to their financial, social, and family lives should their political opinions become publicly known.</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p>These reasons would also apply to online surveys as well, which would explain why there's no significant difference between results of online and phone surveys. For example, Pew Research will actually <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/methodology/collecting-survey-data/internet-surveys/" rel="noreferrer">contact people in real life</a> (via snail mail or otherwise) and invite them to participate in online surveys.</p>
<p><strong>If the research is correct that Conservatives are less trusting of strangers, does this mean they are less likely to answer (or at least give truthful answers to surveys) and are thus under-sampled by polling institutions? Do pollsters correct for this error?</strong></p>
 | polling | 0 |
59,572 | What powers, if any, does the US federal government have to introduce coronavirus restrictions? | <p>Does the US federal government have the power to introduce any restrictions relating to the coronavirus, be it anything from a mask mandate to a full lockdown? Or does the Tenth Amendment mean that it is the exclusive responsibility of the several states to do so?</p>
 | united states covid 19 virus | 1 |
59,574 | Why are Colorado and New Mexico "bluer" than surrounding states? | <p>The (American) "western interior" states (the drier, more rural, less populated ones between the west coast and the center of the country (North and South Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas) tend to vote Republican in Presidential elections. At least two exceptions stand out from the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_elections#:%7E:text=The%202016%20United%20States%20elections,Republicans%20retained%20control%20of%20Congress." rel="noreferrer">2016 campaign</a>:Colorado and New Mexico. These two states voted Democratic in 1992, 2008 and 2012 as well (New Mexico in 1996 and 2000).</p>
<p>I've come up with what appears to be a plausible explanation: Prior to Roe v. Wade, abortion was less restricted <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States_by_state" rel="noreferrer">(green on the first map)</a> in New Mexico, Colorado, (and Kansas), than in most other states of the United States.</p>
<p>Have any political scientists (or historians) cited views on abortion as to why Colorado and New Mexico have more "Democratic" tendencies than their neighbors? Are other issues cited such as e.g. environmentalism?</p>
 | united states presidential election | 0 |
59,575 | Healthcare Insurance (Income & “Silver” Plans) | <p>I’m a young college student looking to start purchasing health insurance here in the United States this year. I’m aware that open enrollment for 2021 starts tomorrow (November 1, 2020) and fully understand it’s purpose and it’s components. Where I start to become confused is at the income realm of healthcare. I have two questions regarding this,</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Hypothetically speaking, why is a man that makes $0.00 yearly not qualified for the same perks and savings that a person making $20,000 yearly is qualified for? I noticed that people making between $12,000 and $40,000 qualify for the most savings and perks in the healthcare marketplace. It you make below $12,000 it says that you might not qualify for any saving or perks at the time. Why is this? You’d think that the people with the lowest level of income or NO source of income would qualify for the HIGHEST levels of saving and perks! This doesn’t seem to be the case though. I’m thinking it might have something to do with laws put in place rearguing the federal poverty level. Please help!</p>
</li>
<li><p>Why are most of the saving and perks associated with “silver” health plans. I notice that in order to qualify for the highest level of savings and insurance that one MUST pick a silver plan. Why are the silver plans the chosen plans for the highest levels of savings? Why they delegate them solely to the silver-plans?</p>
</li>
</ol>
 | united states healthcare health insurance | 0 |
59,576 | Where did the Clinton presidential campaign overemphasise and neglect in 2016? | <p>I’ve heard claims that the Clinton campaign neglected either the Midwest or the “Rust Belt” in 2016, allowing Trump to win the presidential race even though Clinton won the plurality of votes.</p>
<p>Assuming that electioneering is a zero sum game, neglecting the Midwest means that they paid too much attention to other places. Maybe they were trying to win states they didn’t have a chance of winning, or were defending states that weren’t at risk of being lost, or assumed the battleground states were somewhere other than the Midwest, or were trying to help with congressional races.</p>
<p>Where did the Clinton presidential campaign neglect, and where did they pay too much attention, if the aim was to win the presidential race?</p>
<p>Basing answers on information only available after the election is fine, because I don’t know what information was available to the Clinton campaign during the race.</p>
 | united states presidential election electoral college hillary clinton | 1 |
59,578 | Brexit Timeline as of November 2020 | <p>Boris Johnson's <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-johnson-idUSKBN25Y059" rel="nofollow noreferrer">October 15th deadline</a> for negotiations was somewhat artificial, but it represented the real need to have any post-Brexit trade deal negotiated, signed, and ratified by the end of the transition period. As I understand it, a post-Brexit trade deal may or may not involve ratification by all EU27 member states, depending on the subjects it covers. A less comprehensive deal may be ratified by the EU institutions alone. October 15th was just as good as October 16th or October 17th in this regard, but now we're in November.</p>
<p>Some pundits say that both sides are waiting for the outcome of the US election, but I personally don't expect a final result on election day or even in the election week.</p>
<p>Has there been any recent analysis on the constitutional timelines for ratification in all 27 countries? At what date would a final text have to be agreed and delivered to all capitals? I presume they would call special sessions for something like Brexit, but even that takes time.</p>
 | united kingdom european union brexit | 1 |
59,581 | In general, do European right wing parties oppose abortion? | <p>I was wondering about the abortion issue in the US which is a hot topic. Poland just banned abortion and people are protesting against it in the capital. I was wondering about whether or not this opposition to abortion applies to the European right as well. I have noticed many parallels such as immigration and anti-mask views.</p>
<p><em>Does the European right at large oppose abortion?</em></p>
 | europe abortion | 0 |
59,589 | What powers, if any, does POTUS have to ban fracking on private or state owned property? | <p>One of the flashpoints in the current presidential contest, especially in Pennsylvania, is the issue of fracking.
I have no doubt that the President and Federal government maintain jurisdiction over federal lands, but it is less clear to me the jurisdiction the Federal government has over private or state lands.</p>
<p><strong>Can the President or Executive branch prohibit fracking on private or state-owned property?</strong></p>
 | united states environmental policy regulation oil gas | 0 |
59,591 | Why can't California Proposition 17 be passed via the legislative process and thus needs a ballot measure? | <p>I'm researching <a href="https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/propositions/17/analysis.htm" rel="noreferrer">CA-Prop 17</a> which allows for parolees to vote.</p>
<p>I ask of every ballot measure that I vote on: <em>Why can't this law be passed via the normal legislative processes? Why does it require a ballot measure?</em></p>
<p>I find plenty of moral arguments for the law, but I'm having a hard time tracking down a reasonable legal justification for it being a ballot measure and not following the standard legislative processes.</p>
 | united states referendum california | 1 |
59,600 | What happens to US representatives after a redistricting? | <p>The US has a census every 10 years and the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are apportioned to reflect the population change. Sometimes states lose seats. New York state had 45 seats in the 1940's and has lost between 2 and 5 seats for every subsequent census.</p>
<p><strong>What happens to the representatives for those districts that are lost?</strong></p>
<p>I understand that representatives have to campaign for their reelection every two years, including both primaries and the general election. Even so, after a census the party members need to decide which of their representatives campaign for which newly-formed congressional districts and which get booted out. Do they typically do this through gentleman's agreements, primary contests or some other means?</p>
 | united states house of representatives redistricting | 1 |
59,611 | Post-Brexit Fisheries deal | <p>While progress has been made in many areas of the Brexit negotiations, Fisheries and the Level-playing-field continue to be sticking points. In particular, the EU has so far rejected a Norway-style deal on fishing because i) There are too many fish categories in UK seas to negotiate every year, and ii) Large changes in the quotas from one negotating period to the next will lead to instability and make it difficult for fishing businesses to plan over the longer term.</p>
<p>As a starting point, it has already been suggested that there will be a 3-year 'transition period' for fishing, where the quotas gradually and continuously decrease during this period.</p>
<p>In addition, instead of negotiations taking place every year, could the negotiations take place ever 2 or 3 years?</p>
<p>Also, could the <em>change</em> in the quotas from one negotiating term to the next be such that it does not exceed a certain amount? Note that this does not in any way constrain the total change over a longer period of time.</p>
<p>That way the EU Fishermen get their degree of certainty, while at the same time the Sovereignity of UK seas is respected.</p>
 | united kingdom european union brexit international law fishing | 0 |
59,620 | How many people voted early (absentee, by mail) in the 2016 US presidential election? | <p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-year-of-the-vote/2020/11/01/4ccd1e1c-1a31-11eb-befb-8864259bd2d8_story.html" rel="noreferrer">Washington Post</a> says</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Millions of Americans have also wanted to be heard. In a year when the act of voting felt more precarious than ever, more than 94 million had voted in the 2020 election by Monday, casting their ballots early or by mail in record numbers in virtually every state in the nation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>How does that compare to the 2016 election? (I realize states have passed laws to make it easier to vote absentee since Coronavirus...)</p>
<p>related: <a href="https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/13607/statistics-on-vote-by-mail-in-the-us-presidential-elections">Statistics on vote by mail in the US presidential elections</a></p>
 | united states presidential election | 1 |
59,623 | Whare can I find the number of mail ballot drop-off locations by county for the 2020 election? | <p>I am looking for information on the number of mail ballot drop-off places, ideally by county (or other geography), for the current election. <a href="https://healthyelections.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/Ballot_Drop_Off_0.pdf" rel="nofollow noreferrer">This document</a> contains information about the existence or not of such places at the state level (data is <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kcRQsME9ksA0RIO1zZ7aZ0FTpauXHH9W5LFJVv1j618/edit#gid=0" rel="nofollow noreferrer">here</a>). I want something more finer: number of places, by county. For instance, the graph below by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/nov/02/us-election-2020-live-updates-president-donald-trump-joe-biden-kamala-harris-latest-news-update?page=with:block-5fa007428f08c96f53e46a51#block-5fa007428f08c96f53e46a51" rel="nofollow noreferrer">The Guardian</a> (UK newspaper) was produced with such data for two counties:</p>
<p><a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/vccMa.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/vccMa.png" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
<p>I've searched all over without success. The closest possible are some drop-off location search tool (e.g. <a href="https://www.vote.org/dropbox-locator/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">here</a> and <a href="https://www.votinginfoproject.org/projects" rel="nofollow noreferrer">here</a>), which suggest they do have the data. Unfortunately, it is not available to bulk download.</p>
<p>Does someone know where can I find such data?</p>
 | united states election data sources | 0 |
59,629 | In the Mueller report, what are the SM-[number]-[word] documents in the footnotes? | <p>Some parts of the <a href="https://games-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/f5fe536c-81bb-45be-86e5-a9fee9794664/note/a8d336ef-e98d-4a08-987d-b4c154b22700.pdf" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Mueller report</a> regarding the investigation into alleged Russian interference with the 2016 US presidential elections, some of the footnotes refer to documents with coded names/titles. Examples:</p>
<blockquote>
<ol start="113">
<li><p>See SM-2589105 serials 144 & 495.</p>
</li>
<li><p>See SM-2589105-HACK, serial 5.</p>
</li>
<li><p>See SM-2589105-GJ, serial 649.</p>
</li>
</ol>
</blockquote>
<p>What do these footnotes refer to, and are these publicly-available documents?</p>
 | united states reference request mueller investigation classified information | 1 |
59,632 | Is there evidence of on-going legislation specifically targeting Muslims in France? | <p>In 2004, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_law_on_secularity_and_conspicuous_religious_symbols_in_schools" rel="noreferrer">France banned wearing conspicuous religious symbols in schools</a>. In particular, this bans the Muslim headscarf, the Jewish kippah, and the Sikh turban. The turban has now been exempted as Sikhs have argued that it is cultural rather than religious; the same argument therefore applies to the headscarf (which need not be an actual scarf, a hat would do) but this has not happened.</p>
<p>In 2010, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_ban_on_face_covering" rel="noreferrer">France banned covering the face in public</a>. In particular, this bans the niqab (although the vast majority of Muslims see the niqab as optional, some consider it to be recommended, and many observe it).</p>
<p>In 2016, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burkini#France" rel="noreferrer">many municipalities banned the burkini</a>, although this was then suspended by the highest French administrative court.</p>
<p>Although these bans were all worded in religiously neutral ways, an argument could be made that they mostly affect Muslim women, and in fact the justifications for some of these (such as the Burkiki) explicitly mention combating what is perceived by some French politicians as the oppression of women.</p>
<p><strong>Is there evidence that these bans were intended to specifically target Muslims?</strong></p>
 | france religion islam freedom of religion | 1 |
59,635 | How would national ranked voting or approval voting (cumulative voting?) affect US elections? | <p>The first-past-the-post voting system that is primarily used in the USA has resulted in a two party system with a very large number of voters practicing tactical voting. This has caused some voters to give up on voting for some offices since they view both parties as equally bad, possibly in different ways, and their preferred candidates have no chance of winning.</p>
<p>If all the Green Party votes had gone to the Democrats in 2016, Hillary would have won. But that can't be done in the current first-past-the-post system.</p>
<p>So that leads to the question, if all the States switched to a better voting system that gives voters more choice, such as approval voting, or ranked voting (instant runoff), or a runoff election, how would that change the parties? If that would mean that other parties such as the Green Party or the Libertarian party would now have a chance of making it to the final runoff (last two candidates) in a runoff election, or doing so virtually in an instant runoff election, or coming in 2nd in the approval voting system, then that would break the Republican and Democrat two party rule.</p>
<p>Could the Libertarian party beat the Democrats in a final runoff? What party would be best suited to beat the Republicans?</p>
<p>Which of these systems would have the best chance of ending the two party system? One advantage of having a runoff election with at least two elections is that the candidates can readjust their campaigns based on who they are running against.</p>
<p><strong>Definitions:</strong></p>
<p><strong>First-past-the-post:</strong> A system where all voters get only one vote to use on one candidate. The candidate with the most votes wins. This is what is done in most of the English speaking world.</p>
<p><strong>Approval voting:</strong> Voters can approve multiple candidates on the ballot. The candidate with the most approvals wins. To say it another way, voters get multiple votes, but can only use the additional votes on different candidates, and no candidate can receive more than one vote. The candidate with the most votes wins.</p>
<p><strong>Runoff election:</strong> Voters vote at least two times. Each time the running candidates are reduced to a smaller group. You cannot write in a candidate who has been eliminated. It normally ends in a final runoff where only two candidates remain. The candidates get to change their campaign strategies based on who they are running against after each runoff.</p>
<p><strong>Ranked voting or instant runoff:</strong> Voters vote for candidates in order of most preferred to less preferred. This simulates a runoff election, but it is all done when counting the ballots. Candidates are reduced to smaller numbers and the ballots are counted again, with voters' lower ranked candidates being used if their other choices have been eliminated.</p>
<p><strong>Cumulative voting:</strong> This sounds like approval voting, but it's actually not. With cumulative voting, voters can simply split their votes between multiple candidates. It is statistically equivalent to randomly choosing between two or more choices in a traditional first-past-the-post election. Some voters are uninformed or get confused and treat it like an approval voting system, so it can act like the approval voting system in these cases. It's just a sham recreation of the first-past-the-post system.</p>
<p><strong>Tactical voting:</strong> The practice of voting for a candidate who is likely to win to prevent another candidate from winning, instead of voting for the most preferred candidate.</p>
 | united states voting systems | 0 |
59,636 | On what time lag is the FBI declassifying counterintelligence investigations? | <p>For a while now, the CIA has been declassifying as much old material as it can, on a lag of several decades, since the information in decades-old documents often no longer compromises sources and methods. My question is, is the FBI undertaking similar declassification activity in regard to its past counterintelligence investigations?</p>
<p>If so, if the FBI is conducting a counterintelligence investigation now, how long would it be before we could expect that the results of that investigation to be declassified?</p>
<p>I ask because there have been several politically salient counterintelligence investigations in recent years whose existence has been reported on or disclosed, but which we haven’t gotten too much information about.</p>
 | united states fbi justice department intelligence counterintelligence | 0 |
59,637 | What would Trump supporters gain by blocking access to polling places? | <p>This <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/trump-news-live-rally-today-2020-election-updates-biden-twitter-b1544562.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">news article</a> says</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Donald Trump’s supporters have been out in force on America’s highways as this year’s election race enters its home straight, blocking roads, bridges and freeways in New York, New Jersey and Colorado and stopping voters reaching polling stations in Temecula, California.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>All of these states, except for Colorado, are Democrat strongholds - making it unlikely that blocking access to a polling station would make any difference to the election.</p>
<p>It can also be reasonably assumed that a larger proportion of Democrats have voted by mail, meaning that statistically Republican votes would be more impacted by difficulty getting to the polling station.</p>
<p>Is there any scenario where regardless of whether blocking traffic to polling stations were intentional or not, that it could have a large enough impact to make any difference in favour of the Republicans?</p>
 | united states presidential election | 1 |
59,639 | How much predictive power do those tiny towns in New Hampshire who declare at midnight have for US Presidential elections? | <p>For those who don't know, a tiny town in New Hampshire declares its result early for some historical quirky reason which I don't quite understand:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8908359/Joe-Biden-secures-Election-Day-victory-five-votes-Dixville-Notch-New-Hampshire.html" rel="noreferrer">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8908359/Joe-Biden-secures-Election-Day-victory-five-votes-Dixville-Notch-New-Hampshire.html</a></p>
<p>Trump won these hamlets last time; Biden won this time. I can't imagine that such a wildly statistically unrepresentative sample has much predictive power for either the NH state results or the United States more generally, but then again, maybe it does. After all, they are middle-classed communities in a politically moderate state, and probably (I'm assuming) skew much Whiter than the general US population, but otherwise are probably roughly in tune with middle-America.</p>
<p>Has any research been done on what predictive power for the following day's elections these hamlets have historically had, if any?</p>
 | united states presidential election | 1 |
59,659 | Why is Google showing "AP election results" but the AP is not? | <p>If I Google "election results" right now (7:24PM EST Nov 3 2020) then a box shows up provided by google with state summaries of precincts reporting according to the AP. But if I click on the provided link to the AP I do not see any election results. Also, if I go to the <a href="https://apnews.com/hub/election-2020" rel="nofollow noreferrer">AP's Election 2020 web sit</a>e, once again there are no election results, just editorial "stories".</p>
<p>So, I don't get this. Google is reporting the AP's data, but the AP is not publishing their own data, except through Google. Huh?</p>
 | united states election | 0 |
59,661 | Why is the AP calling Virginia in favor of Biden even though he's behind on the vote count? | <p><a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/QKUa5.png" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/QKUa5.png" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
<p>What other determinants are they using to make the call?</p>
 | united states voting presidential election | 0 |
59,663 | Why is there a difference between US election result data in different websites? | <p>If I search US election result in Google it shows a box with apparently the number of electors a candidate has received, which looks like it is sourced from AP (eg: Biden/trump: 131/92 at current count).</p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/election/us2020/results" rel="noreferrer">BBC's reporting</a> shows a different number for each candidate (Eg: Biden/Trump: 89/72 at current count).</p>
<p>As far as I understand only few states have so far declared a formal outcome of their elections, and due to the huge number of votes that have been sent through mail this year, the formal final result may not even come out today.</p>
<p>So why are Google's (or AP's?) and BBC's reporting of current results so different? Moreover I think they are showing a number as their result that is too high. Is it really? Are they both just showing their predictions of who might get how many electors, based on the current formally acknowledged vote count? If that is the case, shouldn't the number of electors won go down sometimes as more votes are counted? I have only seen them go up. What is actually going on here?</p>
 | united states election presidential election | 0 |
59,664 | Are the Associated Press results official or just projections? | <p>The current live map of electoral college votes on the NYTimes and Google shows that the races are called by the Associated Press. As mentioned by the answers to some recent questions, AP uses an apparently reliable black box model for determining which candidate is going to win the state. Does AP have any official power to call these races or are they only determined after all the ballots have been counted by the FEC? If the results aren't official, isn't it irresponsible to even report them live?</p>
 | united states voting presidential election | 1 |
59,669 | Are small parties wasted votes? | <p>Why are there parties other than the Democratic and Republican ones? I understand their existences, but aren't they basically just taking away votes from Biden at this point? Why would anyone vote for Jo Jorgenson, for example (even if they agree with her political views)? Lot's of people say something along the lines of "a vote for Kanye is a vote for Trump," but isn't this the exact same thing?</p>
<p>Note: I am talking specifically about presidential elections.</p>
 | united states voting parties | 1 |
59,671 | During a US election, are mailed-in votes counted first, second or there is no order? | <p>Is there a specific order for which ballots are counted first, or are mailed-in ballots and in-person ballots counted in different locations and therefore are done at the same time?</p>
 | united states election voting ballot vote by mail | 1 |
59,673 | On the AP/Google election tracker, are 'Electoral Votes' describing Electoral College votes? | <p>As someone outside of the US, I'm finding it a little hard to interpret the results from the current election tracker widget that google is using to display the election results.</p>
<p>When the graph is showing 'Electoral Votes', is this describing the 'Electoral College Votes' that ultimately decides the winning presidential candidate?</p>
 | united states election voting | 1 |
59,674 | What are the main arguments by proponents of the American two party system? | <p>Q: What are the main arguments by proponents of the American two party system as opposed to a multi-party system in other federated countries like for example Germany?</p>
<p>Note: The answers in the question linked below, talk mostly about how the current system is preferential to a two party system, and not so much about the arguments for keeping it / against changing it.</p>
<p><a href="https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/2350/what-are-the-advantages-of-a-two-party-system-vs-multiple-party-system">Advantages of two party system</a></p>
 | united states parties voting systems | 1 |
59,678 | Has Donald Trump discussed any details about his presidential library? | <p>Has Donald Trump dropped any hints as to where he would site his presidential library, and how he intends to monetize it?</p>
 | united states president donald trump | 0 |
59,681 | What would happen if the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact was ratified between a presidential election and when the electoral college votes? | <p>The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact" rel="noreferrer">National Popular Vote Interstate Compact</a> is an agreement between several US states to award their electoral college votes to the winner of the national vote. This agreement is designed to only take effect once enough states have ratified it that they have over 50% of the total electoral college electors.</p>
<p>Before the NPVIC comes into effect, electors are pledged to vote for the winner of their state's presidential election. If the NPVIC was ratified after election day and before the day the electoral college votes, what would happen (assuming that the Supreme Court did not judge it an illegal pact)? Would the participating state's electors now vote for the winner of the popular vote, or would they still vote for the candidate they pledged to vote for on election day, so that the NPVIC would functionally only change things for the next presidential election?</p>
 | united states presidential election electoral college na po vo inter co | 1 |
59,685 | What were the longest and shortest times to "call" a United States presidential election? | <p>In the period from the end of World War 2 onwards until 2016, what were the longest and shortest times that, based upon the unofficial results, people took to "call" the result of a United States presidential election?</p>
<p>I'm talking about the time between the polls closing on Election Day and the result — the presumed President Elect — being "called", not the formal publications of official results.
This article talks, for examples, about "calls" at 21:00 on the day and 02:29 the next day (presumably EST):</p>
<ul>
<li>Jacob Sweet (2020-10-14). "<a href="https://harvardmagazine.com/2020/10/calling-the-2020-election" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Making the Call</a>". <em>Harvard Magazine</em>.</li>
</ul>
<p>What was the time of the earliest call?
What was the time of the latest call?
Correct calls only, please, of course.</p>
<p>(I am asking this before the 2020 election is "called", so I have excluded 2020.
I am likewise only asking about after World War 2 to exclude elections where telecommunications were rather different to how they are nowadays.)</p>
<p>Also note that commentators have made the mistake of conflating "calling" a result with what government officials do.
Election officials <em>certify</em> results; this question is not about that.</p>
<p>To repeat what was already stated by the "based upon the unofficial results" in the first paragraph, and also indicated by what is in the <em>Harvard Magazine</em> article:
This is about "calling" by (yes) various organizations, news and other, that tally the unofficial results as they come up, excluding people making random decisions <em>not</em> "based upon the unofficial results" or making data-free guesses before the unofficial results even exist to base a "call" upon.</p>
<p><sup>("calling an election" means something else in British English and Commonwealth English, by the way.
I'm intending the U.S. English meaning.)</sup></p>
 | united states presidential election | 0 |
59,686 | How can election winners of states be confirmed, although the remaining uncounted votes are more than the difference in votes? | <p>For the US presidential elections, the Associated Press announced winners for several states although a significant portion of the votes were uncounted.</p>
<p>One example is Illinois where at the moment of writing (12:32 Central European Time) 80% of the votes are counted</p>
<ul>
<li>Mr. Biden received 55,1% or 2.881.554 votes</li>
<li>Mr. Trump received 43% or 2.246.472 votes</li>
</ul>
<p>that sums up to 5.346.276 votes. If 80% of the votes are counted that would make that the total amount of votes is 5.346.276/0.8=6.682.845.</p>
<p>That means that 6.682.845 - 5.346.276 = 1.336.569 votes are uncounted.
Which means that theoretically Mr. Trump could still get 2.246.472 + 1.336.569 = 3.583.041 votes. And thus could still win the state, although Mr. Biden was already announced the winner.</p>
<p>Although this is statistically unlikely it would not be impossible.
And this kind of bothers me, because I took an extreme example but one could imagine less extreme cases where the results could really change.</p>
<p>It would seem reasonable that only if the total number of remaining/uncounted votes is less than the difference one could announce a winner, but apparently they use much more flexible criteria. What are the limits of probability applied when prematurely announcing winners before all votes are counted?</p>
<p>Note that this question is not about the particular example, but about the general principle of officially announcing a winner while theoretically the other candidate could still win.</p>
<p><strong>EDIT based on the given answers the following part is not correct.</strong></p>
<p>Also one could consider possibilities of "legal" "fraud" where some of the votes, would just be counted later. Say During manual counting 10% of votes for Candidate A are put aside for later counting, or votes from particular regions with particular preferences are counted later. In such scenarios without really changing any vote from A to B election results could still be influenced just by postponing a selection of the votes.</p>
<p><strong>EDIT</strong> My previous understanding was that the states were called before all votes were counted and that they would not continue to count the remaining votes. But based on the answers this information was only a projection so all votes will still be counted, and there is no fraud except for the influence that preliminary results might have on the voting behavior in states where voting was still open, due to the time difference.</p>
 | united states law presidential election statistics | 1 |
59,690 | Are there proposals for preserving ballot secrecy when a candidate scores 100% in a very small polling station? | <p>In the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire#Federal_election_results" rel="noreferrer">2020 United States Presidential Election in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire</a>, Joe Biden received 5 votes and Donald Trump received 0 votes. Biden received 100% of votes cast.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Hawaii#Results_by_county" rel="noreferrer">2016 United States Presidential Election in Kalawao, Hawaii</a>, Hillary Clinton received 14 votes, Jill Stein 5, and Donald Trump 1 vote. Trump almost received 0% of votes cast.</p>
<p>There are probably rural places where the result is reversed and the Republican candidate may get 100% of the vote.</p>
<p>Apparently, <a href="https://qz.com/india/1607559/how-the-lone-voter-in-indias-gir-forest-casts-his-ballot/" rel="noreferrer">Gir Forest in India</a> had exactly one voter.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Falkland_Islands_sovereignty_referendum" rel="noreferrer">2013 Falkland Islands sovereignty referendum</a>, only 3 people voted <em>No</em>.</p>
<p>When at least two or three votes are cast for an alternative there is still somehow a secret ballot, but when 100% votes for a single alternative, the principle of the secret ballot is violated. The secret ballot is guaranteed by the <a href="https://www.humanrights.com/course/lesson/articles-19-25/read-article-21.html" rel="noreferrer">Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Article 21.3</a> (emphasis mine):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The will of the people shall be the basis of the authority of government; this will shall be expressed in periodic and genuine elections which shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by <strong>secret vote</strong> or by equivalent free voting procedures.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>(since this declaration is <em>universal</em>, it applies worldwide, including in the United States; moreover, the United States voted in favour of this declaration in the United Nations and was leading in drafting the text in the first place, so arguably it should apply in the United States; however, I don't know if it's actually a law)</p>
<p>Are there any systems or proposals for systems to mitigate this problem? I could imagine either a rule that voting precincts must have a minimum size (in the extreme case of a precinct with one voter, their vote could never be secret), or where any precincts with 100% for any candidate must be grouped after the election with others such that the result is less than 100% (effectively merging precincts after the election; voters could still verify the combined result but not the individual result per precinct, but secrecy were maintained).</p>
<p>(the counterpart, preventing any results where a candidate receives 0%, is probably not feasible, due to obscure candidates who may receive less than 0.01% of the vote nationwide, and thus 0 votes in many precincts; but with larger precincts, the nationally <em>winning</em> candidate getting 0% of the vote should be unlikely)</p>
 | election law secret ballot | 0 |
59,692 | How do they settle cases in which a systemic problem ruins votes? | <p>I am seeing reports of ballots <a href="https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/sharpie-gate-what-is-going-on/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">in some states</a> being ruined because the polling place used sharpies instead of the pens they were supposed to. In Atlanta, a heavily Democrat polling place had a <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/fulton-election-results-delayed-after-pipe-bursts-in-room-with-ballots/4T3KPQV7PBEX3JVAIGJBNBSVJY/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">watermain break</a> and there may be ruined ballots.</p>
<p>How do they settle things like this? I understand it'll go to the courts, but what metrics will the courts judge by?</p>
 | united states presidential election | 0 |
59,694 | What is the US national average of write in votes in Presidential elections? | <p>While on the Virginia Department of Elections <a href="https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2020%20November%20General/Site/Presidential.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">unofficial results page</a>, as of approximately 1:15 pm on Wednesday, November 4th, I see that Biden(D) has 53.67%, Trump(R) 44.47%, and Jorgensen(L) 1.46%. I also see that Write In has 0.41% (17,400 votes). My assumption (and probably not valid) is that Write In would be someone not one of the three listed earlier.</p>
<p>While I understand that Write In votes at this percentage is not a factor in the results for the Presidential election, I'm curious to know if this percentage of write in votes is on par nationally, low or high?</p>
<p>To keep this in scope, I would go no farther back than perhaps George H. W. Bush.</p>
 | united states presidential election | 0 |
59,698 | Has a recount ever changed the winner of a state during a presidential election? | <p>The Trump campaign stated that they'll ask for a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-04-20/h_d809d24eff23a4b892237b5a0f4f94de" rel="noreferrer">recount in Wisconsin</a> (and it wouldn't surprise me when either of the candidates will ask for one in other states). I'm wondering how often a recount during a US presidential election changed who won that state. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_recount#United_States" rel="noreferrer">Wikipedia</a> only lists three instances of recounts with changed outcomes since 2000 but it doesn't mention anything about the period before (it's basically a copy of the statistics from the <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/recounts-rarely-reverse-election-results/" rel="noreferrer">FiveThirtyEight article</a>).</p>
<p>I know about the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_recount_in_Florida" rel="noreferrer">2000 recount in Florida</a>, where news networks proclaimed a victory Gore, while the recount resulted in a victory for Bush, but I don't recall that Gore was ever officially proclaimed to have won the state (Wikipedia states the election-night vote count was already in favor of Bush).</p>
 | united states presidential election history | 1 |
59,700 | Why does the Biden campaign have a $32 donation tier? | <p>Going onto the <a href="https://joebiden.com/" rel="noreferrer">Joe Biden website</a>, it's currently asking for donations for his presidential election campaign and potential legal action. Some of the options seem to be quite random though:</p>
<p><a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/tERHk.jpg" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/tERHk.jpg" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
<p><sup><em>For those who can't see the image, the options are $15, $32, $50, $100, $250, $500, $2800, and OTHER.</em></sup></p>
<p>Most of these are nice round numbers which is understandable. Looking at <a href="https://politics.stackexchange.com/q/38905/34896">this question</a>, the $2800 is due to being the maximum contribution that an individual can make. But why $32? Is there a reason for this not being a round number like the rest?</p>
 | united states presidential election campaign finance joe biden | 1 |
59,703 | What is the best data source for 2020 US presidential election? | <p>I am looking for a publicly available source on the internet that will allow me to programmatically access election data for the 2020 US Presidential race. Ideally, a JSON or CSV format that contains information like number of votes for a candidate counted by district, state, etc.</p>
<p>Obviously this is a time-sensitive query i.e. I am asking this on the 4th November 2020, the morning after voting has ended. Presumably in a few days or weeks time sources will appear. I am hopeful there is a good centralised source – maybe governmental or some other reasonably reliable institutional source.</p>
<p>It appears that some media sources (e.g. the BBC) are obtaining their data through subscription with Reuters, which in turn are leveraging a service organised by the National Election Pool (NEP). Some information here: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/rpb-nepedison/reuters-to-distribute-real-time-2020-u-s-presidential-election-results-and-exit-polls-from-the-national-election-pool-in-groundbreaking-collaboration-idUKKCN1UH1C2" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.reuters.com/article/rpb-nepedison/reuters-to-distribute-real-time-2020-u-s-presidential-election-results-and-exit-polls-from-the-national-election-pool-in-groundbreaking-collaboration-idUKKCN1UH1C2</a></p>
<p>Google and others are obtaining their information through subscriptions to the Associated Press (AP). Some information available here: <a href="https://support.google.com/websearch/answer/10135596?p=elections&visit_id=637401354366149771-4244470612&rd=1" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://support.google.com/websearch/answer/10135596?p=elections&visit_id=637401354366149771-4244470612&rd=1</a>
and also here: <a href="https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/counting-the-vote" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/counting-the-vote</a></p>
<p>However, these are not available without a subscription to the proprietary data. Wikipedia has not yet added data, although at this point there is a table waiting to be populated here: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Results_by_state" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Results_by_state</a></p>
 | united states presidential election data sources | 0 |
59,704 | What would be required for the US presidential election to be moved from Tuesday to Saturday? | <p>The US presidential elections are currently held on Tuesday what would be required from a process and procedure point of view to have the election moved to Saturday?</p>
<p>For this question assume the change of day has the required support.</p>
 | united states presidential election | 0 |
59,707 | How do I explain the difference between mathematical elimination and disenfranchisement? | <p>A common complaint I have heard (mostly in US primary elections but in other places as well) is that because some states conduct their elections sooner than others, the outcome can be a foregone conclusion before all the elections have been conducted, and thus the results of those later elections are not going to matter. So far, I understand.</p>
<p>But the complaint goes farther and alleges that all the votes in those later elections don't count, because a winner has already been decided before their vote was counted, and thus that those votes didn't count.</p>
<p>This feels off. If it were true, it would imply that the only way not to disenfranchise anyone would be for the election to be decided by one vote (the very last vote), and that changing who was disenfranchised would be as simple as shuffling the ballots - not remarking them, not changing the total at all, just the order in which they're scored.</p>
<p>How do I explain that being mathematically eliminated like this does not necessarily mean being disenfranchised?</p>
 | voting disenfranchisement | 0 |
59,709 | "Polling fails" observed in US elections quantified as right- or left-leaning? | <p>Define a <em>polling fail</em> s.t.</p>
<ol>
<li>a particular candidate <em>C</em>, running in ...</li>
<li>a particular election <em>E</em>, s.t. ...</li>
<li>pre-<em>E</em> polls (collectively, averaged) predict <em>C</em> to achieve vote share <em>S<sub>0</sub></em>, but ...</li>
<li>results from <em>E</em> give <em>C</em> vote share <em>S<sub>1</sub></em>, s.t. ...</li>
<li><em>S<sub>0</sub></em> differs significantly from <em>S<sub>1</sub></em> (<em>(S<sub>0</sub> << S<sub>1</sub>) || S<sub>0</sub> >> S<sub>1</sub>)</em>)</li>
</ol>
<p>Observers of US politics often find instances of polling fails s.t.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>[type A]</em> (<em>C</em> is generally perceived to be "left of center"<strong>[1]</strong>) <em>&& (S<sub>0</sub> >> S<sub>1</sub>)</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>i.e., a US correlate of the UK <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor" rel="nofollow noreferrer">"shy Tory factor"</a>. A recent US instance (as of 4 Nov 2020) is the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201102205052/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">2020 election for US president</a>. There are however cases where "politically-opposite" behavior has been observed, s.t.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>[type B]</em> (<em>C</em> is generally perceived to be "right of center"<strong>[2]</strong>) <em>&& (S<sub>0</sub> >> S<sub>1</sub>)</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>such as the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140829072035/https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/nov/21/2012-election-polling-skewed-for-mitt-romney" rel="nofollow noreferrer">2012 US presidential election</a>, where the "left-of-center" candidate outperformed his pre-election polls.<strong>[3]</strong>.</p>
<p><strong>My question is:</strong> have polling fails as defined here been studied both quantitatively <em>and</em> with regard to left-right political orientation/spectrum? I'm looking for pointers to studies that (e.g.) classify polling fails in a manner similar to my type A and type B (above), and which then compare the numbers of each.</p>
<hr />
<p><strong>[1]</strong>: In US political classification, "left of center" typically includes Democrats as well as persons labeled "liberal" or "progressive." (This is a characterization, not an equation!)<br/>
<strong>[2]</strong>: In US political classification, "right of center" typically includes Republicans as well as persons labeled "libertarian" or "conservative." (Ditto.)<br/>
<strong>[3]</strong>: It's also a case of a US-minority-ethnicity candidate reversing the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect" rel="nofollow noreferrer">"Bradley effect"</a>, though there are certainly more recent instances (as of 4 Nov 2020) combining both the Bradley and shy-Tory effects (e.g., the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201103044305/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/south-carolina/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Graham-Harrison 2020 election for US senator from SC</a>).</p>
 | united states election polling political spectrum political science | 0 |
59,710 | Is splitting states to rebalance the senate really a viable strategy for the Democratic party? | <p>The US senate is frequently controlled by the Republican party because they have the support of many smaller population states, so that even if the Democratic party has more supporters overall, they are concentrated in higher population states. It has been proposed several times that large Democratic-leaning states could be divided in order to rebalance the senate in their favour. (This <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/divide-states-to-democratize-the-senate-1542672828" rel="noreferrer">Wall Street Journal opinion piece</a> is one example of a proponent for this plan.) Making new states out of existing states requires the approval of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/51st_state#By_partition_of_or_secession_from_current_U.S._states" rel="noreferrer">the existing state's legislature and the US Congress</a>.</p>
<p>But would this really be a viable long-term strategy for the Democratic party? Couldn't the Republican party also attempt to split states the next time it got control of Congress, either the higher population southern states, or even the low population northern states like Wyoming and Montana? Splitting states seems like a strategy that is likely to invite tit-for-tat responses just as much as adding Supreme Court justices would. Is there anything that could prevent Republican states from negating any advantages the Democrats gain through state splitting?</p>
 | united states senate us states | 0 |
59,712 | How did the US end up so evenly split? | <p>When looking at the popular vote for 2016, about 49% to 51%, and the current numbers for 2020, it's astonishing how close it is — how evenly the country is divided.</p>
<p>Surely this is unexpected and anomalous? Have US elections typically been so close on such a scale, or is this as mathematically surprising as it seems?</p>
<p>Does political science predict something like this in long-term two-party systems?</p>
 | united states voting presidential election political theory | 1 |
59,715 | What are the advantages and disadvantages of a winner-take-all system? (What prompted certain states not to adopt it?) | <p>I was having trouble finding this question here, though I'm pretty it must have been answered.</p>
<p>What are the advantages and disadvantages of a winner-take-all system for deciding electors for a state?</p>
<p>The reason I imagine is that it would be easier for a team of likeminded people to make progress, rather than nothing ever getting done. Was that indeed the original intent, and if so, has that proven true in practice? (If not, what <em>was</em> the intent?) When and why did Maine and Nebraska opt not to follow this system?</p>
 | united states election electoral college state legislatures | 0 |
59,718 | Why is vote counting made so laborious in the US? | <p>At the UK General Election in 2015, the constituency of Houghton & Sunderland South, declared its result in under 49 minutes, from close of polling.
<a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/axlH5.jpg" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/axlH5.jpg" alt="enter image description here" /></a> </p>
<p>Polling stations at UK parliamentary elections always operate from 7.00am to 10.00pm. This proud winner, Bridget Phillipson M.P., displays the time at which her result was declared 48mins and 41seconds, from close of polling. It is the all-time record*.</p>
<p>The 650 parliamentary constituencies have an average electorate of 60 to 70,000 people. The overall result, for the whole country, and which party is to form the next government, even in close contests is almost
always known by dawn. (In 2019 535 of the 650 constituencies had declared by 6.00am. However the unitary nature of the British electorate means that often with a dozen results in, the final overall state of the parties can easily be predicted - the swing being relatively consistent.)</p>
<p>The idea of counters going home at 9.00pm, to recommence the next day, as apparently happened in some US states, would be unthinkable.</p>
<p>And it is done entirely transparently under the view of representatives from all political parties, TV cameras etc. When all votes are counted the person in charge of the count - the Returning Officer - stands on a stage, flanked by all the candidates and declares the numbers of votes cast for each. There is no need, for a TV network to "call" a result. Everyone awaits the RO's declaration of the count.</p>
<p>The following link gets you to videos of count declarations. Where the seat being declared is that of a senior member of the government or the opposition it regularly attracts a number of joke candidates, and candidates who want to obtain publicity for their cause. The UK has a number of parties with names like "The Monster Raving Looney Party", and characters like "Lord Buckethead". They add a bit of colour and fun to election night, and ensure we do not take ourselves too seriously. The link shows first a declaration involving former Prime Minister, Theresa May, and then one for current PM, Boris Johnson.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZxZlSZrPeQ" rel="noreferrer">Vote declarations</a></p>
<p>Voting is manual with a pencil cross on a piece of paper. All counting is by hand. It is rare for there ever to be any suspicion of irregularity. This seems like quite a contrast to the much slower and more laborious process in parts of the US, particularly Pennsylvania.</p>
<p>Where exactly does the problem lie in the US?</p>
<ul>
<li>I fully recognise that this is not a representative example. Because of its rivalry with neighbouring Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Sunderland employed students who literally ran the ballot boxes from the taxis to the counters. However even in very close elections such as 1964, the two elections of 1974 and 2010 - the parliamentary numbers were almost precisely known by about 4.00am - six hours after closing time. In 2010 it then took several days to form a government because David Cameron was forced to take the Liberal Democrats into coalition. And prior to that there were abortive negotiations between the Lib Dems and Labour.</li>
</ul>
 | united states united kingdom election voting ballot | 0 |
59,720 | Has The Associated Press ever been wrong when calling a state in a US Presidential Election? | <p>The Associated Press announces the winner of states in US presidential elections – has it ever announced a winner early and been wrong?</p>
 | united states president presidential election | 1 |
59,722 | Why does it take much longer to count the last few percentages of votes in some states? | <p>Looking at Google -> <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=us+election+results" rel="noreferrer">US elections</a>, I see that in many US states the percentage of reporting is >95%. This leads me to think that the last few percentages of votes in some states take much longer to count than the first ~95% of votes. Why?</p>
<p><a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/gDG1s.png" rel="noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/gDG1s.png" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
 | united states president presidential election | 0 |
59,723 | Why is there so much campaign-like activity after the polls have been closed? | <p>2020 US Presidential elections polls have closed, but there is still high activity coming from candidates almost as if they are still campaigning (e.g. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/election-2020-live-results-updates-trump-biden.html#106778103-UqVxk2Qph" rel="noreferrer">1</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/election-2020-live-results-updates-trump-biden.html#106777960-aQaNUhojQ" rel="noreferrer">2</a>).</p>
<p>From a layman living outside the US, this is rather strange. Having a statement immediately after the polls are closed makes sense, but so much activity between polls being closed and the final results being announced seems useless.</p>
<p>It is interesting to see those numbers being changed and counties and states becoming blue or red, but whatever candidates are doing (political statements, tweets, press conferences) cannot influence the voting since it has ended. It is a matter of time until the counting is over.</p>
<p><strong>Question:</strong> Why is there so much campaign-like activity after the polls have been closed?</p>
 | united states voting | 1 |
59,724 | Trump was behind on November 5th. Why was he calling for vote counting to stop? | <p><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/04/politics/election-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden-voting-speech/index.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">This CNN article</a>, and others, reported that Trump asked for vote counting to stop, and threatening legal action to do so.</p>
<p>I can (sort of) understand calls for a recount, but, if he was behind, what did he hope to gain by stopping counting?</p>
 | united states donald trump presidential election voting | 1 |
59,727 | Has Trump ever explained why he, as incumbent President, is unable to stop the alleged electoral fraud? | <p>Per title. This criticism is the one levelled by <a href="https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/1324060283103518721" rel="noreferrer">Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei</a> - that the incumbent president ought to be able to stop electoral fraud if it's there. Off the top of my head, every time I've seen electoral fraud alleged it has been the opposition alleging fraud.</p>
<p>Trump has alleged there will be widespread fraud since before the 2020 election. Has Trump ever explained why he was unable stop it?</p>
 | united states donald trump | 1 |
59,730 | What has Azerbaijan said it is going to do with the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh? | <p>Before it declared independence in 1991 as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (later the Republic of Artsakh), the region of Nagorno-Karabakh was a self-governing administrative division of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic (now the Republic of Azerbaijan). Then, as now, Nagorno-Karabakh was populated mostly by ethnic Armenians. Since the declaration of independence, Azerbaijan has been attempting to reassert control over the region.</p>
<p>Has the government of Azerbaijan made any declarations concerning what it intends to do with the ethnically Armenian population of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in the event that Azerbaijan regains control of it? That is, has it indicated that it will allow the autochthonous Armenians to stay, or that it intends to expel them? Has it announced any plans to charge current or former members of the Republic of Artsakh's civilian administration and armed forces with any crimes, or conversely that a general amnesty will be offered?</p>
<p>I want to stress that I am asking only about what Azerbaijan itself has <em>claimed</em> that it is going to do about the population in Nagorno-Karabakh. I am not asking for speculation into what they are actually going to do or whether they are going to keep any promises they may have made.</p>
 | azerbaijan | 0 |
59,731 | On which basis could votes by mail be stopped being counted? | <p>We do not have vote by mail in France since 1975 and I do not have a clear understanding of how it works in the US - but from what I read the time validity of such a vote is decided upon the post office stamp on the letter.</p>
<p>I also hear that President Trump asks for some counting to be stopped (the idea being probably that these will be in majority Democrat's votes).</p>
<p><strong>On which legal basis is this even possible?</strong> Such voting is allowed by law so except changing it on the fly (by setting a limit other than, I believe, the Electoral College vote early December) is this a power the president would have?</p>
 | united states president presidential election vote by mail | 0 |
59,738 | In case of an electoral college tie, can a regular House vote prevent the "en bloc" House vote from happening? | <p>Should neither candidate for president get to 270 votes in the electoral college, the twelfth amendment to the constitution specifies that the House of Representatives "shall choose immediately" a new president, but with one vote for each state.</p>
<p>Should one party have serious issues with that candidate, and assuming they control the majority in the "normal" House, could they block this process? What happens if they decide to not schedule this vote in the House's agenda, despite the constitution specifically obligating them to immediately do this vote?</p>
<p>My first guess would have been that the "en bloc" House could set the agenda for this one vote themselves. The issue is that "a quorum for [the] purpose [of this vote] shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states", so if both parties have at least one member in two-thirds of the states, both parties can form this quorum, and validly vote in their preferred president without members of the opposite party present. As this is absurd, clearly the location and time of this vote should be decided by another authority instead. Is this other authority the "normal" House?</p>
 | united states presidential election constitution house of representatives | 1 |
59,741 | Has a party ever picked up congressional seats in the general election and lost the presidential election in the USA? | <p>Has it ever happened before that a major party in the USA has increased its number of seats and still went on to lose the presidency, or has losing the presidency always come with fewer House/Senate seats for your party?</p>
 | united states presidential election statistics | 0 |
59,745 | Where do all the US votes go? | <p>I would like to know where all the US votes go during the 2020 general election?
I am a data analyst by training and I would like to perform my own analysis on these data.
News searches right now are completely inundated with headlines about the
election, making it difficult to google for how this process works.</p>
<p>I'm curious how a member of the public such as myself would gain access to this data to perform my own aggregates and analysis in real time just like the news networks.</p>
<p>So that being said:</p>
<ul>
<li>Where do all the US state vote tabulations go officially?</li>
</ul>
 | united states election presidential election voting voting records | 0 |
59,746 | What penalties if any can be imposed on faithless electors specifically from Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin? | <p>Joe Biden has won and/or is projected to win in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. This would give him exactly 270 electoral votes, the number required to become the president.</p>
<p>In 2016, there were a total of <strong>10 faithless electors</strong> (highest since 1912) casting ballots for candidates not chosen by their home states. Assuming Trump wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Biden is supposed to get <strong>270</strong> electoral votes and Trump is supposed to get <strong>268</strong> electoral votes. In this scenario, we would need <em><strong>only one</strong></em> faithless elector from Arizona or Nevada or Michigan, or Wisconsin to cause a tie, <strong>269 to 269</strong>.</p>
<p>What penalties if any can be imposed on faithless electors specifically from Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin? Can legislatures in these states specifically appoint someone to be a faithless elector at this point or after all the votes are counted?</p>
 | united states electoral college faithless elector | 1 |
59,748 | Why are pre-election polls even less accurate on 2020 Presidential election comparing to 2016? | <p>Whatever the final outcome of 2020 presidential election would be, it seems that pre-election polls were wrong about Trump — twice in a row and twice as much (circa 8<a href="//" rel="nofollow noreferrer" title="percentage points">pp</a>) comparing to 2016 forecasts (4pp). What strikes me is that actual numbers for Trump in several states appear a whopping 14-20pp better than predicted.</p>
<p><a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/gsa0Z.jpg" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/gsa0Z.jpg" alt="Presidential polling accuracy by state" /></a><br />
<sub>(<a href="https://twitter.com/thomasjwood/status/1324040879523401729" rel="nofollow noreferrer">source</a>)</sub></p>
<p><strong>Why are pre-election polls appear to be even further inaccurate on 2020 Presidential election — second time in a row and twice as much by numbers?</strong></p>
<hr />
<p>There are several questions on this site addressing the general problem of forecasting inaccuracy during the earlier elections:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://politics.stackexchange.com/q/13075/2984">Why were pre-election polls and forecast models inconsistent with the election of Donald Trump?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://politics.stackexchange.com/q/12521/2984">Phenomenon where politically incorrect candidates do better in actual elections than in polls?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://politics.stackexchange.com/q/18246/2984">Why did polls inaccurately predict the 2015 UK general election?</a></li>
</ul>
<p>Answers to these questions contain some great insights, but I believe that the 2020 election is even more outstanding. The difference between forecasts and actual results 2020 vs. 2016 seem to be twice as much bigger (8pp vs. 4pp). More specifically, here's what has been suggested as reasons for Trump's victory in 2016:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://politics.stackexchange.com/q/57939/2984">Social Desirability bias</a>: voters of 2016 could be shy of confessing that they are going to vote Trump because this could be perceived socially unacceptable. However, after four years of Trump presidency, lots of things that used to be unacceptable <a href="https://politics.stackexchange.com/q/43286/2984">became the new norm</a>. Also, there are <a href="https://politics.stackexchange.com/a/46491/2984">researches</a> that seem to deny the impact of shy-Trump-voters;</li>
<li>Sampling: Reportedly, in 2016 analysts pointed out that the inconsistency happened because pollsters have not reached a proportional number of certain social groups — e.g., Cuban Americans in Florida or low-educated rural white males who are hard-to-reach but largely pro-Trump. Despite the best efforts of pollsters to adjust their measuring, they seem to have gotten even worse;</li>
<li>Demobilization due to expected result: seems totally out of the question considering a <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-11-04/2020-election-trump-biden-count-analysis" rel="nofollow noreferrer">120-year-old turnout record</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>What systematic problem could it be that pollsters haven't solved since 2016, and moreover, seems to be worse this time?</p>
 | united states election presidential election forecasting | 0 |
59,761 | Uncounted ballots after someone reaches 270 electoral votes. What happens? | <p>In this time of "all votes count", what happens to uncounted ballots if one person gets 270 electoral votes? So do all votes really count? Isn't the race over at that point?</p>
 | united states election president presidential election | 0 |
59,762 | Why does New Mexico resolve election ties with a game of Poker? | <p>I just learned today that, according to the New Mexico Constitution, if an election ends in a tie, the race will be decided by a game of chance, either a coin-flip, high-card draw, or a single hand of poker. <a href="https://nypost.com/2000/11/14/a-game-of-poker-could-decide-n-m/" rel="noreferrer">According to the New York Post</a>, this was discussed during the 2000 election, where Gore eventually won the state by only 4 votes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A little-known, rarely exercised provision of New Mexico’s state constitution calls for ties to be settled by a game of chance.</p>
<p>That one-in-a-million statute looms over a race that’s separated by a handful of votes.</p>
<p>While there have been no statewide elections ever settled this way, election officials said yesterday, some local ballots have actually come down to a coin flip, high-card draw or a single game of poker.</p>
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
<p>“It’s hardly likely we’ll get Al Gore and George W. Bush back here for one hand of five-card stud,” said Denise Lamb, director of the state Bureau of Elections. “But if there is a tie, it’s supposed to be settled ‘by lot,’ a game of chance, agreed to by the two candidates.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Where did this provision come from? While a coin-flip is common a game of poker seems pretty outlandish (and extremely "Wild-West").</p>
 | united states election history us state laws new mexico | 0 |
59,768 | Can state legislatures decide to appoint a different set of delegates to those determined by the vote? | <p>I've read that legislatures can theoretically just pick whoever they like to be electoral college delegates.</p>
<p>How true is this? If Biden wins by a tiny number of EC votes, could a Republican State legislature claim the result was fraudulent and appoint a Republican state of electors?</p>
 | united states electoral college | 0 |
59,771 | Why were the US mail-in ballots implemented the way they were, with such a late mailing deadline? | <p>Mail-in ballots are a good idea, especially in COVID times, but the current implementation in the US seems so obviously wrong.</p>
<p>Specifically, allowing ballots to be mailed on the final day guarantees that they can't be counted until several days later.
The potential problems generated by that are obvious, even if one doesn't look at the current reality.</p>
<p>Setting the deadline a week earlier would have allowed a reasonable amount of time for the ballots to be delivered and processed, even if not actually counted until election day.</p>
<p>But that's not what they did, and it must have been a deliberate decision.</p>
<p>So <strong>what were the reasons for allowing ballots to be mailed up until the end of election day?</strong></p>
 | united states presidential election vote by mail decision making | 1 |
59,772 | Are all EP plenary vote results publically accessible? Where? | <p>Recently I struggled to find the EP vote results in case of <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/procedure/EN/2017_122" rel="nofollow noreferrer">this regulation</a>. Although it's marked as adopted on the <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/procedure/EN/2017_122" rel="nofollow noreferrer">EUR-LEX website</a>, none of the related votes I could find on <a href="https://www.votewatch.eu/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">VoteWatch</a> ended up positively for the regulation. Is there a way to find any EP plenary voting?</p>
 | european union parliament europe data sources | 1 |
59,773 | Did any major polluters take up any significant steps towards fulfilling the Paris Agreement? | <p>Today is the day when the US will officially leave the Paris Agreement that was signed by Obama back in 2016. This is claimed to be a major setback for the Green movement in the US. But did any major polluters take up any significant steps in the past four years towards curbing their emissions?</p>
<p>To narrow the question, by "major polluters" I'm referring to individual countries that make up 50% of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions" rel="nofollow noreferrer">the worlds pollution</a> when combined with the US: China, India, Russia, Japan and Germany. And a "significant step" would be a binding policy that has already taken effect, rather than a mere intent to do something in the distant future such as <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/23/21452825/california-ban-combustion-gas-vehicles-cars-2035" rel="nofollow noreferrer">California's ban on internal combustion engines</a> that will take place 15 years from now.</p>
 | international climate change paris agreement | 1 |
59,779 | Smallest MOV in Georgia history for president? | <p>The election for president is very close in Georgia.</p>
<p>What was the smallest margin of victory in both percentage points and raw votes for a presidential election in the US state of Georgia?</p>
 | united states presidential election history | 0 |
59,782 | How are clerical errors prevented in vote tabulation? | <p>I have been encountering allegations of vote manipulation in the 2020 presidential election via clerical errors, one large. Although the specific instances were resolved, the general concern remains that simple clerical errors render exact counts inaccurate, and if they're not reliably detected then a political strategy of "count them wrong on purpose" could develop. I'm aware of no evidence for this possibility and would suspect if it were likely we would have devolved into a banana republic decades ago, but I am not aware of how it is avoided.</p>
<p>I am aware of recounts being one such tool, but as they are generally performed only in very close contests, they would be ineffective against larger errors, or a small but distributed error.</p>
<p>I'm also aware that public data theoretically allows citizens to notice oddities. But in practice this seems to generate armchair experts bordering on misinformation. It will also be biased to the supporters that feel most aggrieved.</p>
<p>I've seen <a href="https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/11351/what-is-the-typical-error-in-large-vote-counts">this question</a>, but it deals more with the size of the error than the detection of it.</p>
<p>So the core question is: What processes are typically used in elections (of varying size) to guard against clerical error as much as possible?</p>
 | united states election | 0 |
59,788 | Why has Alaska not been called with a 30% lead? | <p>On Google, which appears to use data from AP, all of the West Coast states -- California, Oregon, Washington -- immediately went from grey (no results) to dark-blue (called-for the blue party), right on the hour when the polls were closed on election night -- without ever going light-blue -- when only a minuscule vote counts have been available. In other words, it was called before any number of votes even came in at all, as soon as it was legally allowable to call it.</p>
<p>OTOH, we're currently at 50% reporting for Alaska, with about a 30% vote lead, yet it's still not been called dark-red, and remains light-red.</p>
<p>Can anyone explain why Alaska has not been called? Especially in a situation where Arizona has already been called so early by AP/Google as dark-blue, yet as of Thursday evening, only a very small lead remains (2.0% currently), with many votes (10% currently) still uncounted?</p>
 | united states presidential election | 0 |
59,795 | Why is a "landslide win" for Biden considered impossible in the 2020 election? | <p>Biden is currently <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=politics_election_bop" rel="noreferrer">4 million votes</a> ahead of Trump (73,716,018 vs. 69,645,113), with postal and absentee votes currently being tallied which generally favor Biden, and Pennsylvania and Georgia seem to be "swinging" in his direction. However, headlines report <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/05/trump-should-have-lost-in-a-landslide-the-fact-that-he-didnt-speaks-volumes" rel="noreferrer"><em>Trump should have lost in a landslide. The fact that he didn’t speaks volumes</em></a> and <a href="https://freebeacon.com/2020-election/pundits-pointed-to-blue-wave-and-landslide-win-for-biden/" rel="noreferrer"><em>Pundits Pointed to Blue Wave and Landslide Win for Biden</em></a>.</p>
<p>I don't understand why a landslide win for Biden is widely considered impossible, while Biden-leaning votes are still being counted: the so-called <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/31/red-mirage-trump-election-scenario-victory" rel="noreferrer"><em>red mirage</em></a>.</p>
<p><strong>Question</strong>: Why is a "landslide win" for Biden considered impossible in the 2020 election?</p>
 | united states presidential election joe biden | 0 |
59,799 | What if Biden dies now? | <p>The results of the election are not confirmed yet.</p>
<p>But what if Biden dies and he wins before results declared?</p>
<p>Does the Democratic Party have to nominate a new president? Would that mean that Trump wins? Or what?</p>
 | united states presidential election democratic party joe biden | 0 |
Subsets and Splits