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300 | <s>[INST] Foremost among the political considerations that shaped the objective of privatizing [/INST] the company in a single operation was the government's commitment to make maximum cash payments to Argentina's long-suffering pensioners. </s> |
301 | <s>[INST] In lieu of unpaid pensions, [/INST] more than one million Argentine pensioners held so-called Bocones. </s> |
302 | <s>[INST] These bonds of long maturity were accumulating but [/INST] not paying current interest, and they traded at severely depressed prices in the secondary markets. </s> |
303 | <s>[INST] So firmly was the government committed to paying the pensioners [/INST] that it agreed to incorporate that intention as a legal obligation in the legislation authorizing YPF's sale. </s> |
304 | <s>[INST] Full privatization was realized through the [/INST] creative design of the exchange offer addressed to Argentine pensioners. </s> |
305 | <s>[INST] It aimed to provide added financial benefits to [/INST] pensioners not compensated with the $3 billion cash proceeds raised through the initial public offering. </s> |
306 | <s>[INST] As a back up, and to make certain that a majority of YPF [/INST] shares were sold, professional investors who had acquired Bocones in the secondary market were allowed to exchange them for stock not taken up by pensioners. </s> |
307 | <s>[INST] Another consideration that weighed in favor of privatizing through a single offer [/INST] was the very real problem now facing many countries that follow the more standard procedure of a small initial public offering. </s> |
308 | <s>[INST] The sale of additional tranches of [/INST] stock can prove more difficult for government officials to manage. </s> |
309 | <s>[INST] These officials may feel they lack enough experience [/INST] or political leeway to decide the right timing, pricing or other details of subsequent sales. </s> |
310 | <s>[INST] Additionally, a small initial public offering may not be [/INST] perceived by international investors as a true privatization, harming both the company's current and future market value. </s> |
311 | <s>[INST] For if the company is profitable, there is always [/INST] a temptation for the government to keep control or at least a strong influence over it. </s> |
312 | <s>[INST] Finally, the government wanted to [/INST] maximize the shares remaining in Argentine hands. </s> |
313 | <s>[INST] It also wanted to prevent a major foreign [/INST] oil company or Argentine corporate group from buying up a strategic stake and dominating YPF. </s> |
314 | <s>[INST] These various objectives created no mean challenge -- particularly with such a large initial [/INST] offering and with such a sizable portion to be placed in a relatively small local market lacking the institutional base common in more developed stock markets. </s> |
315 | <s>[INST] Ultimately, a $7 billion company [/INST] was privatized, with the government's interest reduced to 20%. </s> |
316 | <s>[INST] The government's commitment to pensioners was honored, with those still [/INST] holding Bocones enjoying a market value for their bonds almost twice that of a few months ago. </s> |
317 | <s>[INST] Argentine shareholders accounted for 65% to 70% of the shareholder [/INST] base; and Argentina now has a large, international body of investors who follow the country and its equities. </s> |
318 | <s>[INST] The many potentially divisive political issues that [/INST] still face partially privatized companies in other countries are now firmly behind Argentina. </s> |
319 | <s>[INST] YPF can now focus -- for its own benefit, its shareholders' [/INST] and Argentina's -- on the challenge of being a world class oil company, perhaps the first of several in Latin America. </s> |
320 | <s>[INST] For governments developing or revitalizing market economies, YPF offers not just advice on [/INST] how to sell stock but a constructive example of how to maximize the socioeconomic rewards from privatization for the benefit of society at large. </s> |
321 | <s>[INST] --- Mr. Mulford, undersecretary and assistant secretary of the U.S. [/INST] Treasury for international affairs, 1984-92, is vice chairman of CS First Boston and chairman of CS First Boston Ltd. </s> |
322 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 210 of 400 World Business (A Special Report): Taking the Plunge --- Where the Buys Are: Four [/INST] Veteran Money Managers Share Their Opinions On Which Stocks to Pursue and Which to Avoid Author: By Craig Torres Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 24 Sep 1993: PAGE R23. </s> |
323 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Hong Kong: Look for [/INST] banks that offer exposure to the growth boom in southern China. </s> |
324 | <s>[INST] Hong Kong Shanghai Bank is up big this year, but still [/INST] isn't expensive; the stock trades at around 8.2 times the earnings estimate for 1994, which anticipates growth of about 19%. </s> |
325 | <s>[INST] Hang Seng Bank, a unit of Hong Kong [/INST] Shanghai that also is traded publicly, is geared to southern China's demand for money. </s> |
326 | <s>[INST] Hang Seng trades at around 14 [/INST] times the 1994 earnings estimate, which forecasts 17% earnings growth. </s> |
327 | <s>[INST] Korea: Shin Han Bank and Hanil Bank [/INST] should benefit from an increase in public-works construction, which they help finance. </s> |
328 | <s>[INST] Infrastructure spending has become a [/INST] prominent part of Korea's gross domestic product. </s> |
329 | <s>[INST] Hanil is reasonably valued, given [/INST] the outlook for Korean economic growth in 1994. </s> |
330 | <s>[INST] The stock trades at 9.6 times [/INST] the 1994 earnings estimate, which forecasts 10% profit growth. </s> |
331 | <s>[INST] Indonesia: Kalbe Farma, a drug manufacturer [/INST] and distributor, should experience 20% earnings growth next year. </s> |
332 | <s>[INST] The stock represents a bet [/INST] on rising quality of life in Indonesia. </s> |
333 | <s>[INST] The company's expansion into such health-foods [/INST] segments as diet crackers and artificial sweeteners may boost growth prospects. </s> |
334 | <s>[INST] Hero Supermarket, the largest supermarket [/INST] chain in Indonesia, has 49 stores and is expanding. </s> |
335 | <s>[INST] It enjoys high gross margins on [/INST] food products, which represent around 85% of total sales. </s> |
336 | <s>[INST] Hero's stock sells around 28 times [/INST] estimated 1993 earnings, which should grow 20% next year. </s> |
337 | <s>[INST] Full text: It's a popular maxim that applies [/INST] just as well to emerging markets as to mature ones: Buy what you know. </s> |
338 | <s>[INST] Prudent investors take their first [/INST] steps with stocks of businesses they understand. </s> |
339 | <s>[INST] But in emerging markets, there are so many tempting possibilities -- in banking and [/INST] beverages, in particular, but also in retailing, energy, construction, utilities and other fields of business driven by broad economic growth -- that investors can easily be overwhelmed. </s> |
340 | <s>[INST] To gain insights about investment prospects in Asia and Latin America, [/INST] The Wall Street Journal asked four seasoned money managers to describe some specific stocks that they would accumulate -- and avoid. </s> |
341 | <s>[INST] MICHAEL SOFAER Mr. Sofaer is a London-based senior partner of Sofaer [/INST] Capital Inc., Hong Kong, which manages Arral International Hedge Fund and Arral Asian Fund, among others, investing about $300 million. </s> |
342 | <s>[INST] Hong Kong: Look for banks that [/INST] offer exposure to the growth boom in southern China. </s> |
343 | <s>[INST] Hong Kong Shanghai Bank is up big this year, but still [/INST] isn't expensive; the stock trades at around 8.2 times the earnings estimate for 1994, which anticipates growth of about 19%. </s> |
344 | <s>[INST] Hang Seng Bank, a unit of Hong Kong [/INST] Shanghai that also is traded publicly, is geared to southern China's demand for money. </s> |
345 | <s>[INST] Hang Seng trades at around 14 [/INST] times the 1994 earnings estimate, which forecasts 17% earnings growth. </s> |
346 | <s>[INST] Indonesia: Lippo Bank has weathered recent [/INST] economic weakness by lending mostly to solid retail borrowers. </s> |
347 | <s>[INST] Now Lippo is in position to [/INST] expand its portfolio, and its strong branch network should help. </s> |
348 | <s>[INST] Korea: Shin Han Bank and Hanil Bank [/INST] should benefit from an increase in public-works construction, which they help finance. </s> |
349 | <s>[INST] Infrastructure spending has become a [/INST] prominent part of Korea's gross domestic product. </s> |
350 | <s>[INST] Hanil is reasonably valued, given [/INST] the outlook for Korean economic growth in 1994. </s> |
351 | <s>[INST] The stock trades at 9.6 times [/INST] the 1994 earnings estimate, which forecasts 10% profit growth. </s> |
352 | <s>[INST] Malaysia: Arab-Malaysian Bank and Malayan [/INST] Banking have large pools of understated assets. </s> |
353 | <s>[INST] Over the next six months, both stocks [/INST] should play catch-up with the strong rally in smaller Malaysian companies. </s> |
354 | <s>[INST] and Development Bank of Singapore are both very conservative, [/INST] and they are likely to benefit from stronger mortgage lending in the second half of this year. </s> |
355 | <s>[INST] Thailand: Thai Farmers Bank, Bangkok Bank and Siam [/INST] Commercial Bank are less vulnerable than others to declines in the real-estate market. </s> |
356 | <s>[INST] Avoid Bank Ayudhya, which [/INST] is overexposed to the glutted property market. </s> |
357 | <s>[INST] The numbers look good, but Ayudhya hasn't provided [/INST] adequately for any losses on the property portfolio, which accounts for 25% of assets. </s> |
358 | <s>[INST] C. THOMAS TULL Mr. Tull is [/INST] chief executive officer of Gulfstream Global Investors Ltd. in Dallas. </s> |
359 | <s>[INST] He has been investing in Asia for [/INST] 12 years, most of them as director of investments for the LTV Corp. </s> |
360 | <s>[INST] In 1991, he and some associates started [/INST] Gulfstream, which deploys about $85 million in stocks and bonds worldwide. </s> |
361 | <s>[INST] Mr. Tull applies a traditional growth-stock [/INST] strategy, looking for strong franchises that can generate predictable earnings increases. </s> |
362 | <s>[INST] Indonesia: Kalbe Farma, a drug manufacturer [/INST] and distributor, should experience 20% earnings growth next year. </s> |
363 | <s>[INST] The stock represents a bet [/INST] on rising quality of life in Indonesia. </s> |
364 | <s>[INST] The company's expansion into such health-foods [/INST] segments as diet crackers and artificial sweeteners may boost growth prospects. </s> |
365 | <s>[INST] Hero Supermarket, the largest supermarket [/INST] chain in Indonesia, has 49 stores and is expanding. </s> |
366 | <s>[INST] It enjoys high gross margins on [/INST] food products, which represent around 85% of total sales. </s> |
367 | <s>[INST] Hero's stock sells around 28 times [/INST] estimated 1993 earnings, which should grow 20% next year. </s> |
368 | <s>[INST] The company is moving into rayon [/INST] fiber, but won't see benefits until next year, if then. </s> |
369 | <s>[INST] The stock trades at around 22 [/INST] times 1993 earnings estimates, a high multiple for a commodity company. </s> |
370 | <s>[INST] Semen Gresik will face [/INST] stronger competition from companies such as Indocement. </s> |
371 | <s>[INST] , a gambling company [/INST] that is 58.4% owned by Genting Bhd. </s> |
372 | <s>[INST] , has a terrific balance sheet, and [/INST] is a great play on the appetite in Malaysia for speculation. </s> |
373 | <s>[INST] The company probably can generate annual [/INST] growth of about 20% over the next several years. </s> |
374 | <s>[INST] , a food and beverage company that's 51%-owned [/INST] by Nestle SA in Switzerland, shares food technology and other resources with the European parent. </s> |
375 | <s>[INST] This company will benefit from [/INST] growing per-capita income and preferences for branded products. </s> |
376 | <s>[INST] Shares are expensive at 28 times [/INST] estimated 1993 earnings, but profit could advance 15% next year. </s> |
377 | <s>[INST] Its earnings could be volatile, due to declining [/INST] car sales, lower fuel-oil prices and the switch to natural gas for power generation. </s> |
378 | <s>[INST] Its earnings prospects are uncertain [/INST] because of pressures on palm-oil prices from oversupply. </s> |
379 | <s>[INST] The stock's price/earnings ratio is in [/INST] the 20s, and earnings growth may decline in 1994. </s> |
380 | <s>[INST] Thailand: Tipco Asphalt benefits from strong demand [/INST] for asphalt, which is rising 25% to 30% a year in Thailand. </s> |
381 | <s>[INST] The stock trades at about 20 [/INST] times estimated 1993 earnings, which could grow about 15% next year. </s> |
382 | <s>[INST] Earnings of International Cosmetics, a distributor of cosmetics, [/INST] leather goods, housewares and garments, are growing at a minimum of 15% a year. </s> |
383 | <s>[INST] Avoid Siam Food Products, a fruit-products [/INST] company that suffers from a sharp drop in pineapple prices. </s> |
384 | <s>[INST] Net income could decline about [/INST] 70% this year compared with 1992 results. </s> |
385 | <s>[INST] The airline is struggling with a heavy debt [/INST] burden and will have to pay out more cash to upgrade the fleet. </s> |
386 | <s>[INST] The stock trades more than 15% below [/INST] the price of its initial offering, completed just over a year ago. </s> |
387 | <s>[INST] Even so, the share price [/INST] is still about 51 times estimated 1993 earnings. </s> |
388 | <s>[INST] Jean-Francois van de Walle Mr. Van de Walle, a vice [/INST] president of Alliance Capital Management of New York, has followed Latin American companies for about 12 years. </s> |
389 | <s>[INST] He co-manages Alliance's Regional Markets Portfolio, an open-end [/INST] fund registered in Luxembourg, and advises Alliance on some $600 million in emerging-market equity investments. </s> |
390 | <s>[INST] He is particularly bullish on Latin American beverage companies, which he [/INST] says will benefit from economic reforms that are raising income and spending, as well as from increasing numbers of young adults. </s> |
391 | <s>[INST] In addition, many of these beverage companies enjoy limited [/INST] competition from foreign brands (which are too expensive), or even from other companies in their home markets. </s> |
392 | <s>[INST] Mexico: On the plus side: Over the [/INST] past two years, international giants such as Coca-Cola Co. and Anheuser-Busch Cos. </s> |
393 | <s>[INST] have collectively invested hundreds of [/INST] millions of dollars in local brewers or soft-drink distributors. </s> |
394 | <s>[INST] But Mexicans already drink a lot of cola [/INST] -- about 25 cases per-capita annually, compared with about 32 cases in the U.S. </s> |
395 | <s>[INST] That consumption rate is very high, considering that [/INST] per-capita disposable income in Mexico is only about one-seventh of the U.S. amount. </s> |
396 | <s>[INST] Fomento Economico Mexicano SA, known as Femsa, is a bottler [/INST] and business partner of Coca-Cola, as well as a brewer of Mexican beers (including Dos Equis, Tecate and Bohemia). </s> |
397 | <s>[INST] Now that Coke has a [/INST] stake in the company, there will be more acquisitions. </s> |
398 | <s>[INST] Also, shareholders could benefit when [/INST] the company sells stock in the colar unit. </s> |
399 | <s>[INST] It's not expensive: The stock trades at around [/INST] 1.5 times book value, and at about 12 times this year's estimated earnings. </s> |
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