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800 | <s>[INST] It looks as if Argentine [/INST] President Carlos Menem has launched his re-election campaign. </s> |
801 | <s>[INST] There's just one problem: [/INST] He isn't allowed to run for re-election. </s> |
802 | <s>[INST] But, eager to prolong his stay in the Casa Rosada into the next [/INST] century, Mr. Menem and his supporters are pulling out all stops to get Argentina's constitution revised to allow presidents to serve consecutive terms. </s> |
803 | <s>[INST] A bill has been submitted to Congress, [/INST] and there's talk of a plebiscite on the issue shortly after the Oct. </s> |
804 | <s>[INST] 3 elections, in which half the [/INST] seats in the Chamber of Deputies are up for grabs. </s> |
805 | <s>[INST] "I'll be here until 2001," [/INST] Mr. Menem told the daily Pagina 12 recently. </s> |
806 | <s>[INST] To the 62-year-old Mr. Menem, who meets with President Clinton in Washington today, [/INST] and to his backers, a new six-year term would consolidate the freemarket reforms that have put Argentina in the forefront of Latin America's economic revival. </s> |
807 | <s>[INST] "It's very important for the continuity of [/INST] this social and economic model," Foreign Minister Guido Di Tella said recently. </s> |
808 | <s>[INST] But beyond Mr. Menem's attempts to portray himself as indispensable [/INST] to Argentina's stability, his critics see a power-hungry, dictatorial streak that reminds them of old-style Latin American caudillos. </s> |
809 | <s>[INST] "This theory of providential men gave us Peron," says economist Adalberto [/INST] Rodriguez Giavarini, alluding to the strongman Juan Domingo Peron, whose dynastic and statist policies contributed to Argentina's long decline. </s> |
810 | <s>[INST] Some argue that what political analyst Rosendo Fraga calls Mr. [/INST] Menem's "re-election obsession" is detrimental to economic stability, because it raises the possibility of economic concessions for political gains. </s> |
811 | <s>[INST] Many say he'd be better to pick [/INST] his successor and ensure that Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo stays on. </s> |
812 | <s>[INST] This uneasiness over Mr. [/INST] Menem's intentions comes through in opinion polls. </s> |
813 | <s>[INST] A poll last month by the Buenos Aires [/INST] daily Clarin showed that 67% favor constitutional reform, and 64% favor the possibility of re-election. </s> |
814 | <s>[INST] As soon as the results came out, Mr. [/INST] Menem's Peronist party plastered the city with posters saying, "The people have already decided". </s> |
815 | <s>[INST] But the posters conveniently left out the answer to a [/INST] third question: If Mr. Menem stood for re-election, 52.9% said they wouldn't vote for him, against 30.8% who would. </s> |
816 | <s>[INST] His impressive economic results and his sharply pro-Western foreign [/INST] policy have allowed him to carve himself an image of a statesman aspiring to South American leadership. </s> |
817 | <s>[INST] Mr. Menem has adroitly used [/INST] his Peronist credentials to reverse almost everything Gen. </s> |
818 | <s>[INST] Peron did, and to carry out an economic turnaround [/INST] that Bankers Trust described in a research report as "one of the most dramatic in modern history". </s> |
819 | <s>[INST] By privatizing almost all of state industry, including oil giant YPF SA, which was floated yesterday; by opening the [/INST] economy to foreign competition, and by giving Mr. Cavallo political backing for a tough stabilization plan, Mr. Menem has cut inflation to 17.5% last year from a whopping 5,000% in 1989, when he came to power. </s> |
820 | <s>[INST] The economy grew 9% in 1992, and [/INST] Argentina also reached a deal over its $31 billion foreign-bank debt. </s> |
821 | <s>[INST] But alongside this statesman's image on display in Washington today, the [/INST] flashy Mr. Menem also has the image of a frivolous, power-loving and sometimes vindictive man that turns off many Argentines. </s> |
822 | <s>[INST] "The intellectual elite say [/INST] he's a joke," says economist Pedro Lacoste. </s> |
823 | <s>[INST] When top model Claudia Schiffer visited [/INST] here recently, Mr. Menem saw her not once but twice. </s> |
824 | <s>[INST] Mr. Menem had several highly [/INST] public spats with his estranged wife Zulema. </s> |
825 | <s>[INST] He agreed only very reluctantly to [/INST] give up a gleaming red Ferrari that a businessman gave him. </s> |
826 | <s>[INST] He has acquired a $66 [/INST] million presidential jet that includes a barber shop. </s> |
827 | <s>[INST] He spends many hours on the tennis [/INST] court, soccer field and golf course he had installed at his residence. </s> |
828 | <s>[INST] Mr. Menem's vindictive side came out in [/INST] the past few days in a major squabble with the daily Clarin. </s> |
829 | <s>[INST] Upset that the paper reported the highly critical views of [/INST] a bishop, Mr. Menem threatened retaliatory measures against the press, including an antitrust law that would chiefly affect Clarin. </s> |
830 | <s>[INST] This gave many the impression that Mr. Menem was seeking [/INST] to muzzle the press to bolster his re-election campaigna charge on which he is now trying to backpedal. </s> |
831 | <s>[INST] Moreover, the government has been dogged by corruption [/INST] and money-laundering scandals that have involved top ministers and some of Mr. Menem's principal aides. </s> |
832 | <s>[INST] This has been aggravated by the fact [/INST] that while the officials have lost their jobs, they haven't been punished. </s> |
833 | <s>[INST] So far, Mr. Menem's charisma, personal [/INST] touch and economic success have allowed him to stay untainted. </s> |
834 | <s>[INST] Still, predicts Mr. Fraga, the political analyst, "The government will win [/INST] the October elections because of the economy, but Menem won't succeed on his re-election bid because of his political defects. </s> |
835 | <s>[INST] People want this stability to [/INST] continue, but without unlimited power for Menem". </s> |
836 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 298 of 400 Heard on the street: Argentina's YPF offering could be a [/INST] gusher, but huge deal has political, economic risks Author: Torres, Craig Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 25 June 1993: PAGE C2. </s> |
837 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: In one of the largest initial public offerings ever, [/INST] Argentina will privatize its state-owned oil company YPF to investors around the world in the week of Jun 27, 1993. </s> |
838 | <s>[INST] The opportunities and risks that the [/INST] $2 billion, 110 million share deal presents to investors are discussed. </s> |
839 | <s>[INST] Full text: NEW YORK -- Argentina will take its [/INST] spot on the record books next week with one of the largest initial public offerings ever. </s> |
840 | <s>[INST] The country is selling its state-owned oil [/INST] company, YPF, to investors in the U.S., Argentina and around the world. </s> |
841 | <s>[INST] CS First Boston and Merrill Lynch expect to bring the $2 billion, 110 million [/INST] share, offering to market at $17 to $20 apiece; the American depositary shares will trade on the Big Board under a proposed symbol of YPF. </s> |
842 | <s>[INST] Argentina wants to price the deal [/INST] sweetly for investors, to make sure the mammoth offering sells. </s> |
843 | <s>[INST] With the sweet price, however, [/INST] come a whole boatload of political and economic risks. </s> |
844 | <s>[INST] Investors who get the stock in the initial offering might be able [/INST] to "flip" it -- sell it for a quick profit -- at $22 or $23 a share within a few days. </s> |
845 | <s>[INST] YPF is a turnaround [/INST] stock, and turnarounds tend to be volatile. </s> |
846 | <s>[INST] Also, YPF shares will [/INST] fluctuate with investors' perceptions of Argentina's economy. </s> |
847 | <s>[INST] One thing that's curious about this deal is [/INST] the wide variation in perception about just what kind of investment YPF is. </s> |
848 | <s>[INST] Here's how the bets play out: The Asset Play: [/INST] According to this view, investors have an opportunity to buy oil in the ground, or reserves, cheaply. </s> |
849 | <s>[INST] Arthur Smith, chairman of the [/INST] petroleum research firm John S. Herold in Greenwich, Conn. </s> |
850 | <s>[INST] , says that at a midrange offering price of $18.50 a [/INST] share, investors will be paying $1.80 to $2.00 a barrel for oil and energy equivalents (such as natural gas). </s> |
851 | <s>[INST] "Publicly traded companies are priced more [/INST] in the order to $5 to $7 a barrel. </s> |
852 | <s>[INST] So you can see the [/INST] romance of this deal," Mr. Smith says. </s> |
853 | <s>[INST] With 2.8 billion barrels of oil or equivalents, YPF [/INST] would be among the top dozen publicly traded companies in the world in terms of reserves. </s> |
854 | <s>[INST] Mr. Smith is particularly [/INST] excited about YPF's ample natural gas reserves. </s> |
855 | <s>[INST] Right now, gas sells for about 95 cents per thousand cubic feet in [/INST] Argentina (far below the U.S. price of about $2.16); but, as government controls are eased next year, he expects prices to rise to around $1.30. </s> |
856 | <s>[INST] The Turnaround Play: Now that it will no longer be [/INST] government-run, YPF can start implementing strategies that will cut costs, boost production, and raise earnings, some investors think. </s> |
857 | <s>[INST] "You are buying a turnaround," says [/INST] Jean van de Walle, portfolio manager at Alliance Capital. </s> |
858 | <s>[INST] Over the past 2 1/2 years, YPF has terminated more [/INST] than 40,000 employees, and employment is expected to fall a bit further to 8,000 workers by year end. </s> |
859 | <s>[INST] Production costs could shrink to $7.11 a barrel this year [/INST] from about $8.15 a barrel last year, estimates Douglas Terreson, manager of the Putnam Energy Resources Trust. </s> |
860 | <s>[INST] Mr. Terreson thinks earnings could rise to [/INST] about $2.40 a share in 1994 from about $1.65 in 1993. </s> |
861 | <s>[INST] At the midrange price of $18.50 a share, investors would [/INST] be buying a 45% estimated earnings growth rate at only 7.7 times earnings -- quite a bargain. </s> |
862 | <s>[INST] Typically, growth stock P/E ratios [/INST] are about as high as a company's growth rate. </s> |
863 | <s>[INST] "YPF has tremendous market share, around [/INST] 54% of the Argentine retail market," Mr. Terreson says. </s> |
864 | <s>[INST] "You could argue that over the [/INST] next couple of years we will see higher profit margins. </s> |
865 | <s>[INST] The Argentina Play: To still other investors, [/INST] YPF is a bet on the turnaround in the Argentine economy. </s> |
866 | <s>[INST] Because most of YPF's energy products [/INST] are sold in Argentina, the economy will pace the stock. </s> |
867 | <s>[INST] YPF could become the Buenos Aires bellwether, [/INST] much as Telefonos de Mexico is for the Mexican stock market. </s> |
868 | <s>[INST] "As long as you believe in Argentina, [/INST] it's a good stock," says Mr. van de Walle of Alliance Capital. </s> |
869 | <s>[INST] The economy is expected to slow this [/INST] year to around 4% or 5% from 1992's pace of 8.7%. </s> |
870 | <s>[INST] Inflation, while low compared with many [/INST] past years, is still uncomfortably high at around 13%. </s> |
871 | <s>[INST] Analysts figure the Ministry of Finance will tighten [/INST] interest rates a bit this year in an attempt to brake inflation further. </s> |
872 | <s>[INST] What was once nationalized could be nationalized [/INST] again, if Latin American politics took a sudden turn back to the left. </s> |
873 | <s>[INST] "There is always a sovereign risk issue in these national oil [/INST] companies," says Bernard Picchi, managing director at Kidder, Peabody & Co. "Free-market reform is only fairly shallowly rooted in Argentina". </s> |
874 | <s>[INST] Though oil has been fairly stable lately, its [/INST] price can soar or dip with political developments in the always-jittery Middle East. </s> |
875 | <s>[INST] Despite the risks, there's talk that YPF [/INST] will be sold near the high end of the proposed $17-to-$20 range. </s> |
876 | <s>[INST] Investors who can ride out [/INST] the waves may make good profits in this stock. </s> |
877 | <s>[INST] But money managers experienced with Latin American stocks say [/INST] there's no need to chase it if it rises in the days following the opening. </s> |
878 | <s>[INST] Whatever it does, YPF isn't [/INST] likely to go up in a straight line. </s> |
879 | <s>[INST] "And I think YPF is going to [/INST] be a volatile stock," says Alliance Capital's Mr. van de Walle. </s> |
880 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 322 of 400 Big Investors Take High Risk Approach to [/INST] Latin America Author: By Craig Torres Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 27 May 1993: PAGE C1. </s> |
881 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: These private stock investments -- which can't [/INST] be readily sold when problems arise -- are among the most speculative bets undertaken by investment companies. </s> |
882 | <s>[INST] The boost in private stock investments amounts to a risky [/INST] vote of confidence in political and economic reforms in Latin America, which has a history of government nationalization. </s> |
883 | <s>[INST] Short of that, ownership might [/INST] be contested in the event of bankruptcy. </s> |
884 | <s>[INST] Also, private stock holders can be subject [/INST] to decisions by boards of directors, controlling shareholder groups and governments. </s> |
885 | <s>[INST] While it is understandable that U.S. consumer companies want a foothold in populous Latin American markets, it is unusual to see big U.S. [/INST] investors -- including BEA Associates, a New York manager of institutional money and mutual funds; Capital International Inc., a Los Angeles-based global money manager; and mutual fund companies such as Scudder, Stevens & Clark -- becoming business partners with Latin American governments, families and businesses. </s> |
886 | <s>[INST] BEA has a 9% stake in a private natural [/INST] gas distribution company in Argentina, and a 10% stake in a private Brazilian textile company. </s> |
887 | <s>[INST] Scudder holds a $5.6 million [/INST] stake in Nortel Inversora, an Argentine phone company. </s> |
888 | <s>[INST] The investment represents 9.7% of [/INST] the assets of the mutual fund giant's Argentina Fund. </s> |
889 | <s>[INST] Scudder also is working on [/INST] other private equity deals but won't disclose details. </s> |
890 | <s>[INST] Securities and Exchange Commission rules say open-end mutual funds can hold as much [/INST] as 15% of their assets in private, unlisted stock; there is no limit on private stock holdings for closed-end funds, the agency says. </s> |
891 | <s>[INST] Full text: NEW YORK -- Lured by visions of [/INST] stupendous profits in emerging markets, mutual funds and institutional money management companies are making some high-risk investments. </s> |
892 | <s>[INST] Because they are frustrated in finding sufficient exchange-traded shares of the [/INST] kinds of companies they like, many U.S. investment firms are directly buying stakes in closely held corporations, particularly in Latin America. </s> |
893 | <s>[INST] These private stock investments -- which can't be readily [/INST] sold when problems arise -- are among the most speculative bets undertaken by investment companies. </s> |
894 | <s>[INST] The boost in private stock investments amounts to a risky [/INST] vote of confidence in political and economic reforms in Latin America, which has a history of government nationalization. </s> |
895 | <s>[INST] Short of that, ownership might [/INST] be contested in the event of bankruptcy. </s> |
896 | <s>[INST] Also, private stock holders can be subject [/INST] to decisions by boards of directors, controlling shareholder groups and governments. </s> |
897 | <s>[INST] These quiet purchases by investment groups in Latin America [/INST] run parallel with big, publicized strategic alliances forged by U.S. companies such as Anheuser-Busch Cos. </s> |
898 | <s>[INST] and Coca-Cola Co. While it is understandable that U.S. consumer companies want a foothold in populous Latin American markets, it is unusual to see [/INST] big U.S. investors -- including BEA Associates, a New York manager of institutional money and mutual funds; Capital International Inc., a Los Angeles-based global money manager; and mutual fund companies such as Scudder, Stevens & Clark -- becoming business partners with Latin American governments, families and businesses. </s> |
899 | <s>[INST] I am sure we will have [/INST] our tumbles," says Piers Playfair, senior vice president at BEA. </s> |
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