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1,900 | <s>[INST] Skittishness among investors and traders has risen to the point that "it's fair to say that [/INST] currency markets are now trading beyond the realm of [economic] fundamentals, and are, instead, trading on sentiment," says Michael Scarlatos, an international economist at Bankers Trust Co. in New York. </s> |
1,901 | <s>[INST] He adds that the future will "be [/INST] more of the same" until Russia and Japan legislate needed reforms. </s> |
1,902 | <s>[INST] "Only then can we see some [/INST] of the pressure on emerging-country currency and securities markets being lifted". </s> |
1,903 | <s>[INST] As CrossBorder's Mr. Howell sees it, the roots of the current contagion [/INST] lie in Japan's prolonged recession, which prompted the world's second largest economy to buy less oil, gas, metals and other commodities. </s> |
1,904 | <s>[INST] Then as the financial crisis spread [/INST] to other parts of Asia, commodity prices fell with them. </s> |
1,905 | <s>[INST] That hurt the economies of commodity producers such as South Africa, Russia, [/INST] Canada, Australia, Venezuela and Norway, prompting investors to become more risk-averse and to retreat from the financial markets of countries with ballooning deficits. </s> |
1,906 | <s>[INST] Thus, at the same time "deficits are swelling because [/INST] of falling commodity prices, there isn't the liquidity to finance those current account deficits," Mr. Howell says. </s> |
1,907 | <s>[INST] Take hedge funds and big banks' proprietary-trading desks, [/INST] many of which have placed huge bets on emerging-market stocks, and especially bonds. </s> |
1,908 | <s>[INST] "Say they own Russian treasury bills or Russian bonds," [/INST] says Desmond Lachman, head of emerging-markets economic research at Salomon Smith Barney in New York. </s> |
1,909 | <s>[INST] "They probably borrowed money to finance their purchases; so [when [/INST] Russian markets fell], they either have to put up more cash or sell out at a loss. </s> |
1,910 | <s>[INST] If they put up more cash, they [/INST] need to sell Brazilian securities" or those of other liquid markets. </s> |
1,911 | <s>[INST] "This is going to have very large [/INST] implications for Latin American growth, and thereby the U.S.," Mr. Lachman says. </s> |
1,912 | <s>[INST] That is because American exporters will become less [/INST] competitive in world markets, while demand from some of their biggest markets shrinks. </s> |
1,913 | <s>[INST] 1306.6 1312.1 +9.9 As calculated [/INST] by Morgan Stanley Capital International Perspective, Geneva. </s> |
1,914 | <s>[INST] Each index, calculated in local currencies, [/INST] is based on the close of 1969 equaling 100. </s> |
1,915 | <s>[INST] (See related article: "Abreast of the [/INST] Market: Seesaw Ride Leaves Analysts In U.S. Divided" -- WSJ Aug. </s> |
1,916 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 406 of 500 Argentine Opposition Wants State To Recover Bigger [/INST] Economic Role Author: By Craig Torres Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 12 Aug 1998: A12. </s> |
1,917 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Argentina's opposition-party coalition unveiled its economic platform for the [/INST] 1999 presidential elections, promising to keep the peso pegged to the dollar while seeking a larger state role in economic affairs. </s> |
1,918 | <s>[INST] The document, released late Monday, is likely to become a leading example of how center-left parties [/INST] in Latin America plan to recover a role for state institutions after they were discredited in the 1980s and all but dismantled in the 1990s through privatization and deregulation. </s> |
1,919 | <s>[INST] The proposals, called "A Letter to the Argentines," gives the coalition, [/INST] known as the Alliance, important influence over the economic debate as the ruling Peronist party remains distracted by infighting. </s> |
1,920 | <s>[INST] In a national poll conducted in May by the Buenos Aires firm Mora [/INST] y Araujo & Associados, the Alliance's most likely candidates for the presidency led the Peronist candidates by as much as eight percentage points. </s> |
1,921 | <s>[INST] Full text: BUENOS AIRES -- Argentina's opposition-party coalition unveiled its economic platform [/INST] for the 1999 presidential elections, promising to keep the peso pegged to the dollar while seeking a larger state role in economic affairs. </s> |
1,922 | <s>[INST] The document, released late Monday, is likely to become a leading example of how center-left parties [/INST] in Latin America plan to recover a role for state institutions after they were discredited in the 1980s and all but dismantled in the 1990s through privatization and deregulation. </s> |
1,923 | <s>[INST] The proposals, called "A Letter to the Argentines," gives the coalition, [/INST] known as the Alliance, important influence over the economic debate as the ruling Peronist party remains distracted by infighting. </s> |
1,924 | <s>[INST] In a national poll conducted in May by the Buenos Aires firm Mora [/INST] y Araujo & Associados, the Alliance's most likely candidates for the presidency led the Peronist candidates by as much as eight percentage points. </s> |
1,925 | <s>[INST] The Alliance envisions an Argentine economy where at the end of four years [/INST] exports double to $50 billion annually, unemployment is halved to 6% of the work force and investment spending rises to 30% of gross domestic product. </s> |
1,926 | <s>[INST] Annual economic growth is expected to average 6%, about [/INST] equal to the rate of average growth over the past nine years under President Carlos Saul Menem. </s> |
1,927 | <s>[INST] The model doesn't propose aggressive state intervention, but suggests that efficient, honest institutions [/INST] can promote economic growth by simplifying bureaucratic codes, or kick-starting marginalized sectors through various forms of partnering, such as financing small export cooperatives. </s> |
1,928 | <s>[INST] Pedro Lacoste, an independent economist, said the unemployment goal would be impossible to [/INST] achieve, given the expected increase in Argentina's job pool and the economy's limited ability to absorb these workers at a 6% growth rate. </s> |
1,929 | <s>[INST] "They have too many goals and [/INST] they are not specific about the tools," he said. </s> |
1,930 | <s>[INST] "If they want to build [/INST] credibility, they will have to give more details". </s> |
1,931 | <s>[INST] Nevertheless, Mr. Lacoste and other [/INST] economists praised the general framework as sound economic policy. </s> |
1,932 | <s>[INST] "The Alliance said: `We want convertibility [economic shorthand for Argentina's currency system, where the peso [/INST] is fixed one-to-one with the dollar] to continue, and we want to maintain the rules of the game,'" said Raul Buonuome, chief economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, Argentina. </s> |
1,933 | <s>[INST] As in many emerging markets, Argentine stocks [/INST] were pounded yesterday; the benchmark Merval stock index fell 4.4% to 489.66. </s> |
1,934 | <s>[INST] "Convertibility" has reduced inflation to near zero, but it [/INST] has also created high unemployment as exporters resorted to technology and other labor-saving investments to lower costs. </s> |
1,935 | <s>[INST] Because exchange-rate policy is fixed, the Alliance focuses [/INST] on other tools such as fiscal policy, regulation and use of state resources. </s> |
1,936 | <s>[INST] The Alliance said it wouldn't privatize Argentina's largest [/INST] bank, Banco de la Nacion, preferring to keep it as a state development bank. </s> |
1,937 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 438 of 500 Argentina's Menem Changes His Mind And Decides Not [/INST] to Seek Third Term Author: By Craig Torres Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 22 July 1998: A11. </s> |
1,938 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: "This president will leave office unfailingly on December 10, 1999, and aspires [/INST] to place the sash on another Peronist president who will continue the revolution we started," Mr. (Carlos Saul) Menem said in an unexpected news conference yesterday. </s> |
1,939 | <s>[INST] Crediting himself with Argentina's "peaceful and democratic revolution," the 68-year-old president said [/INST] "the fruits of this effort is wealth for all, and nothing and no one has the right to put that in danger". </s> |
1,940 | <s>[INST] Argentina has managed to grow at a remarkable 6.2% a [/INST] year on average during Mr. Menem's two terms, and inflation has fallen to below 2% from 4,924% in 1989. </s> |
1,941 | <s>[INST] Mr. Menem's re-election bid had become a contentious issue within his own Peronist party [/INST] as well as Argentina, and was starting to have an impact on crucial legislation, such as a tax bill now working its way through Congress. </s> |
1,942 | <s>[INST] Mr. Menem was elected to a single six-year term in [/INST] 1989, and was elected to a second, four-year term after a constitutional amendment allowed him to run. </s> |
1,943 | <s>[INST] Full text: BUENOS AIRES -- Argentine President Carlos Saul Menem said he [/INST] won't seek a third consecutive term because political disunity over the issue was putting the country's decade of progress at risk. </s> |
1,944 | <s>[INST] "This president will leave office unfailingly on December 10, 1999, and aspires to [/INST] place the sash on another Peronist president who will continue the revolution we started," Mr. Menem said in an unexpected news conference yesterday. </s> |
1,945 | <s>[INST] Crediting himself with Argentina's "peaceful and democratic revolution," the 68-year-old president said [/INST] "the fruits of this effort is wealth for all, and nothing and no one has the right to put that in danger". </s> |
1,946 | <s>[INST] Argentina has managed to grow at a remarkable 6.2% a [/INST] year on average during Mr. Menem's two terms, and inflation has fallen to below 2% from 4,924% in 1989. </s> |
1,947 | <s>[INST] Mr. Menem's re-election bid had become a contentious issue within his own Peronist party [/INST] as well as Argentina, and was starting to have an impact on crucial legislation, such as a tax bill now working its way through Congress. </s> |
1,948 | <s>[INST] Mr. Menem was elected to a single six-year term in [/INST] 1989, and was elected to a second, four-year term after a constitutional amendment allowed him to run. </s> |
1,949 | <s>[INST] Mr. Menem's supporters had said they would pursue all legal avenues [/INST] to clear the president for a third term, including a Supreme Court ruling excluding his first term, which began in 1989. </s> |
1,950 | <s>[INST] Opposition parties argued that such a ruling would clearly violate the [/INST] constitution, and that view was gaining support among certain Roman Catholic bishops and other powerful sectors of Argentine society. </s> |
1,951 | <s>[INST] Argentine politics are likely to be a lot more orderly [/INST] over the next several weeks, and that is healthy for both the economy and the political debate here. </s> |
1,952 | <s>[INST] "This eliminates a big pressure on the economic [/INST] and political environment," said Raul Buonuome, chief economist at Deutsche Bank's Argentine investment-banking unit. </s> |
1,953 | <s>[INST] The alliance of opposition parties, previously preoccupied with opposing [/INST] Mr. Menem, will now have to define clear and credible economic proposals that they have sorely lacked. </s> |
1,954 | <s>[INST] The Peronists also have more room to redefine their platform and rebuild [/INST] their popularity, which has been damaged by the public fight between Mr. Menem and Eduardo Duhalde, the Buenos Aires provincial governor. </s> |
1,955 | <s>[INST] Mr. Duhalde opposes Mr. Menem's re-election and [/INST] threatened to hold a September plebiscite in his province on the issue. </s> |
1,956 | <s>[INST] Theoretically, they could choose Mr. Menem as [/INST] the candidate and again seek to win a favorable reading of the constitution. </s> |
1,957 | <s>[INST] But analysts are taking Mr. Menem's renunciation at [/INST] face value, and say he wants to head the Peronist party after finishing his term. </s> |
1,958 | <s>[INST] Mr. Buonuome, the Deutsche Bank economist, says Ramon Ortega, a former [/INST] pop singer and close Menem ally who currently heads social development, is likely to be tapped for the candidacy. </s> |
1,959 | <s>[INST] Carlos Reutemann, a former governor and race-car driver, is also [/INST] said to be favored by some Peronist factions, while some analysts hold up Mr. Duhalde as a longshot possibility. </s> |
1,960 | <s>[INST] Mr. Menem formally announced his [/INST] desire for a third term only last week. </s> |
1,961 | <s>[INST] But by the weekend, his chances were already severely damaged after the Peronist party congress [/INST] on the issue last Friday produced a surprisingly tepid endorsement, while a consensus against re-election began to form rapidly among leading thinkers and powerful sectors of society. </s> |
1,962 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 444 of 500 Argentina's Menem Seeks Way to Run For [/INST] a Third Term Author: By Craig Torres Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 17 July 1998: A12. </s> |
1,963 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Speculation that Mr. (Carlos Saul) Menem would seek re-election [/INST] had already triggered a power struggle within his Peronist party that is disrupting economic policy here, according to analysts. </s> |
1,964 | <s>[INST] He cited personal reasons, but news reports attributed the resignation [/INST] to differences with Congress on a tax-reform bill, which some analysts said has been altered by Peronist infighting. </s> |
1,965 | <s>[INST] Full text: BUENOS AIRES -- President Carlos Saul Menem formally announced his desire [/INST] to run for a third term, saying he would seek a legal solution to a constitutional provision that limits presidents to two consecutive terms. </s> |
1,966 | <s>[INST] Speculation that Mr. Menem would seek re-election had already [/INST] triggered a power struggle within his Peronist party that is disrupting economic policy here, according to analysts. </s> |
1,967 | <s>[INST] He cited personal reasons, but news reports attributed the resignation [/INST] to differences with Congress on a tax-reform bill, which some analysts said has been altered by Peronist infighting. </s> |
1,968 | <s>[INST] Mr. Menem said that he will ask his fellow Peronists in a party [/INST] congress today "what needs to be done to be a candidate, to not be prohibited and to be able to compete in the 1999 elections". </s> |
1,969 | <s>[INST] Menem supporters are likely to ask the Supreme Court [/INST] to exempt his first term from the two-term limit because it occurred before the 1994 constitution. </s> |
1,970 | <s>[INST] Eduardo Duhalde, presidential aspirant and Buenos Aires Province's Peronist governor, [/INST] opposes Mr. Menem's re-election and said he will hold a plebiscite on the question in November in his province. </s> |
1,971 | <s>[INST] Analysts credited Mr. Menem with responsible fiscal management in [/INST] a political year and with leading the economy to 6.2% average annual growth during his two terms. </s> |
1,972 | <s>[INST] But there is concern the polarization [/INST] of Peronist congressional blocs, or shifting alliances, will dilute reforms. </s> |
1,973 | <s>[INST] "Now in Argentina, political considerations are constraining the reining in [/INST] of demand and the adoption of structural reforms," said Nina Ramondelli, senior credit analyst at Moody's Investors Service. </s> |
1,974 | <s>[INST] News reports said Carlos Rodriguez, the vice minister of economy, became [/INST] furious this week when he discovered Congress removed an extension of valueadded taxes to cable television and other media. </s> |
1,975 | <s>[INST] Those tax extensions were designed to cover payroll-tax cuts [/INST] that the ministry hopes will boost export competitiveness in the face of Asian currency devaluations. </s> |
1,976 | <s>[INST] Argentina's peso is fixed to the dollar, [/INST] so it can't adjust its exchange rate to fix trade imbalances. </s> |
1,977 | <s>[INST] "From the beginning, the economic team thought [/INST] the extension of the valueadded tax was nonnegotiable," said Pedro Lacoste, an economist. </s> |
1,978 | <s>[INST] But raising taxes on the media is a [/INST] challenge for the Peronists, who are trying to fortify loyalties as the Duhalde-Menem camps divide. </s> |
1,979 | <s>[INST] "We didn't have an accord to push [/INST] it," said Congressman Oscar Lamberto in a meeting with reporters yesterday. </s> |
1,980 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 452 of 500 Menem Re-election Bid Rattles Peronists Infighting in Argentine [/INST] Ruling Party Could Impede Reforms Author: By Craig Torres Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 15 July 1998: A11. </s> |
1,981 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: President Carlos Menem's re-election bid has created severe infighting within [/INST] the ruling Peronist party, and analysts fear that Congress will be unable to complete several important reforms before presidential elections in September 1999. </s> |
1,982 | <s>[INST] Peronist infighting has yet to rattle financial markets [/INST] here, which are getting a lift from the recovery of Japanese and Russian markets. </s> |
1,983 | <s>[INST] Nevertheless, members of Mr. Menem's economic cabinet [/INST] are starting to worry that the re-election battle is getting out of hand. </s> |
1,984 | <s>[INST] "An investor looking at Argentina doesn't know what the Constitution will contain, nor who is going [/INST] to be the candidate of each party, nor what will be the tax or labor system," complained Mr. Menem's economic adviser, Carlos Rodriguez, in an interview with the daily Clarin. </s> |
1,985 | <s>[INST] "We are making too much [/INST] noise and these errors have high costs". </s> |
1,986 | <s>[INST] Presidential transitions are delicate in [/INST] Latin America, and Argentina is proving no exception. </s> |
1,987 | <s>[INST] The issue is especially important for investors, because [/INST] Mr. Menem is credited with dramatically reforming Argentina's economy during his decade in power. </s> |
1,988 | <s>[INST] Gross domestic product has grown at an average rate of [/INST] 6.2% during Mr. Menem's term so far, and inflation has fallen to below 2% from 4,924% in 1989. </s> |
1,989 | <s>[INST] Full text: BUENOS AIRES -- President Carlos Menem's re-election bid has created severe [/INST] infighting within the ruling Peronist party, and analysts fear that Congress will be unable to complete several important reforms before presidential elections in September 1999. </s> |
1,990 | <s>[INST] "We are in a very, very complicated political [/INST] game that is not doing the country any good right now," says economist Pedro Lacoste. </s> |
1,991 | <s>[INST] Among the central issues Argentina needs to tackle [/INST] before Mr. Menem's term ends in December 1999 are the tax and labor codes. </s> |
1,992 | <s>[INST] Peronist infighting has yet to rattle financial markets [/INST] here, which are getting a lift from the recovery of Japanese and Russian markets. </s> |
1,993 | <s>[INST] Nevertheless, members of Mr. Menem's economic cabinet [/INST] are starting to worry that the re-election battle is getting out of hand. </s> |
1,994 | <s>[INST] "An investor looking at Argentina doesn't know what the Constitution will contain, nor who is going [/INST] to be the candidate of each party, nor what will be the tax or labor system," complained Mr. Menem's economic adviser, Carlos Rodriguez, in an interview with the daily Clarin. </s> |
1,995 | <s>[INST] "We are making too much [/INST] noise and these errors have high costs". </s> |
1,996 | <s>[INST] Presidential transitions are delicate in [/INST] Latin America, and Argentina is proving no exception. </s> |
1,997 | <s>[INST] The issue is especially important for investors, because [/INST] Mr. Menem is credited with dramatically reforming Argentina's economy during his decade in power. </s> |
1,998 | <s>[INST] Gross domestic product has grown at an average rate of [/INST] 6.2% during Mr. Menem's term so far, and inflation has fallen to below 2% from 4,924% in 1989. </s> |
1,999 | <s>[INST] Many believe that economic reforms need further consolidation under [/INST] Mr. Menem before the presidency can be turned over to an opposition party or even another Peronist. </s> |
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