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500 | <s>[INST] As this degradation has pervaded even the lowest [/INST] rank of the courts, public outrage against the Menem administration's impunity has begun to overflow. </s> |
501 | <s>[INST] One case was the 1997 murder [/INST] of photojournalist Jose Luis Cabezas, who had been investigating police corruption. </s> |
502 | <s>[INST] The public also has demanded justice for Maria Soledad Morales, [/INST] who was raped and murdered during a cocaine party with sons of political officials in the state of Catamarca. </s> |
503 | <s>[INST] Likewise, there is a loud outcry for [/INST] justice in the beating death of soldier Omar Carrasco in an army barracks. </s> |
504 | <s>[INST] While the government insists that the 1994 bombing of a Buenos Aires Jewish community center [/INST] is being properly investigated, the relatives of the victims march regularly to protest what they say is a government coverup or a lack of will to investigate the crime. </s> |
505 | <s>[INST] Public outrage has produced some changes: Mr. Menem sent a [/INST] federal intervention to investigate the Morales case and there were finally -- after seven years -- convictions. </s> |
506 | <s>[INST] Eduardo Duhalde divided the Buenos Aires [/INST] Police into 18 sections, after dismissing the entire top brass. </s> |
507 | <s>[INST] A dozen police officers have [/INST] been jailed in the Jewish community center bombing case. </s> |
508 | <s>[INST] These results stemmed from the [/INST] intense public activism against the evils of impunity. </s> |
509 | <s>[INST] The October 1997 elections, in which the bottom line wasn't the economy [/INST] but the state of the country's institutions, suggest that maybe Argentina is finally on its long way to becoming a full-fledged law-abiding nation. </s> |
510 | <s>[INST] One test will be how [/INST] Mr. Menem fares if he tries for re-election. </s> |
511 | <s>[INST] --- Mr. Verbitsky is a columnist for Pagina/12 magazine [/INST] and author of "The Flight: Confessions of an Argentine Dirty Warrior" (The New Press, 1996). </s> |
512 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 163 of 500 The Americas: How to Make a Currency Board [/INST] Work in Indonesia Author: By Domingo F. Cavallo Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 06 Mar 1998: A15. </s> |
513 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Today in Argentina there is a wide consensus among political and [/INST] economic leaders, as well as academic and professional economists, about the importance of the role that the 1991 Convertibility Law played in stabilizing the economy. </s> |
514 | <s>[INST] The macroeconomic data are more than eloquent: Between [/INST] 1990 and 1997 inflation fell continuously to an annual rate of 1% from over 1,000%. </s> |
515 | <s>[INST] During the same period, gross domestic product grew [/INST] more than 50%, or at an average annual rate of more than 6%. </s> |
516 | <s>[INST] -- The Argentine peso is convertible to dollars at a fixed [/INST] parity, but the central bank is not obliged to buy all the dollars that are offered in the market. </s> |
517 | <s>[INST] Therefore, Argentine monetary policy is determined by the [/INST] U.S. Federal Reserve, but only because the peso is weaker than the dollar. </s> |
518 | <s>[INST] Argentina could have an active monetary policy if the situation were [/INST] reversed, for instance with the Fed adopting an inflationary monetary policy while Argentina pursued a more conservative price stability target. </s> |
519 | <s>[INST] -- Through successive crises, Argentine monetary authorities have proven that they are [/INST] willing to permit the complete dollarization of the economy rather than abandon the commitment to convertibility or promote extremely high interest rates. </s> |
520 | <s>[INST] In this sense, the management of the [/INST] Argentine monetary system is unlike that of Hong Kong's currency board. </s> |
521 | <s>[INST] During the Asian crisis Hong Kong's monetary authorities have used monetary activism to force a [/INST] significant rise in interest rates, demonstrating that they do not want to allow a shift from Hong Kong dollars to U.S. dollars in the portfolio of currency holders. </s> |
522 | <s>[INST] As a consequence, Hong Kong's U.S. dollar reserves have increased more [/INST] than $15 billion since July; equity and real estate prices have fallen more than would have occurred without such a policy. </s> |
523 | <s>[INST] In Argentina, on the other hand, the Convertibility [/INST] Law minimized the increase in interest rates, even when the country's demand for dollars increased. </s> |
524 | <s>[INST] Full text: BUENOS AIRES -- Today in Argentina there is a wide consensus among [/INST] political and economic leaders, as well as academic and professional economists, about the importance of the role that the 1991 Convertibility Law played in stabilizing the economy. </s> |
525 | <s>[INST] The macroeconomic data are more than eloquent: Between [/INST] 1990 and 1997 inflation fell continuously to an annual rate of 1% from over 1,000%. </s> |
526 | <s>[INST] During the same period, gross domestic product grew [/INST] more than 50%, or at an average annual rate of more than 6%. </s> |
527 | <s>[INST] Since the public debate over Indonesia's possible adoption of a currency board [/INST] began, I have been frequently asked if such a system would be as successful in Indonesia as monetary convertibility has been in Argentina. </s> |
528 | <s>[INST] This question is apropos, since the crisis [/INST] in Indonesia has similar characteristics to Argentina's monetary chaos in 1990. </s> |
529 | <s>[INST] The Indonesian rupiah has fallen to [/INST] 9,700 to the U.S. dollar from 2,400 in July 1997. </s> |
530 | <s>[INST] With hyperinflation a predictable outcome of [/INST] such a monetary collapse, serious measures are in order. </s> |
531 | <s>[INST] The successful results of the Argentine Convertibility Law [/INST] can be explained, in part, by the virtues of this monetary system itself. </s> |
532 | <s>[INST] But also, perhaps more fundamentally, because the government has [/INST] harnessed the popular support generated by stability to implement deep structural changes in the country's economy. </s> |
533 | <s>[INST] First, let me explain the three key characteristics of the Argentine [/INST] system: -- There are two currencies circulating and they are broadly used: the Argentine peso and the U.S. dollar. </s> |
534 | <s>[INST] This means that a decision by Argentines to use [/INST] more dollars and fewer pesos does not necessarily produce a credit crunch in the economy. </s> |
535 | <s>[INST] -- The Argentine peso is convertible to dollars at a fixed [/INST] parity, but the central bank is not obliged to buy all the dollars that are offered in the market. </s> |
536 | <s>[INST] Therefore, Argentine monetary policy is determined by the [/INST] U.S. Federal Reserve, but only because the peso is weaker than the dollar. </s> |
537 | <s>[INST] Argentina could have an active monetary policy if the situation were [/INST] reversed, for instance with the Fed adopting an inflationary monetary policy while Argentina pursued a more conservative price stability target. </s> |
538 | <s>[INST] -- Through successive crises, Argentine monetary authorities have proven that they are [/INST] willing to permit the complete dollarization of the economy rather than abandon the commitment to convertibility or promote extremely high interest rates. </s> |
539 | <s>[INST] In this sense, the management of the [/INST] Argentine monetary system is unlike that of Hong Kong's currency board. </s> |
540 | <s>[INST] During the Asian crisis Hong Kong's monetary authorities have used monetary activism to force a [/INST] significant rise in interest rates, demonstrating that they do not want to allow a shift from Hong Kong dollars to U.S. dollars in the portfolio of currency holders. </s> |
541 | <s>[INST] As a consequence, Hong Kong's U.S. dollar reserves have increased more [/INST] than $15 billion since July; equity and real estate prices have fallen more than would have occurred without such a policy. </s> |
542 | <s>[INST] In Argentina, on the other hand, the Convertibility [/INST] Law minimized the increase in interest rates, even when the country's demand for dollars increased. </s> |
543 | <s>[INST] The Convertibility Law was not implemented as a [/INST] means to avoid or postpone any of the measures demanded by economic restructuring. </s> |
544 | <s>[INST] Simultaneous with its implementation, the economy [/INST] was opened, legal monopolies were eliminated and the financial system reformed. </s> |
545 | <s>[INST] Monetary stability helped economic policy makers, political leaders and [/INST] the public to understand the need for these changes because distortions and vested interests became more evident. </s> |
546 | <s>[INST] The available information on the Indonesian initiative does not make clear [/INST] whether the proposed currency board for the rupiah would include and also enable financial intermediation in both rupiah and dollars. </s> |
547 | <s>[INST] As a consequence, it is still unclear whether Indonesian authorities are willing [/INST] to give up the power of monetary policy activism or to accept the possibility of an eventual dollarization of the economy. </s> |
548 | <s>[INST] Most financial analysts have suggested that [/INST] an Indonesian currency board might require very high interest rates. </s> |
549 | <s>[INST] This assumes that in the case of a continuous run against the rupiah, the [/INST] Indonesian monetary authority would imitate the monetary activism of Hong Kong, and thus prevent the high degree of dollarization that Argentina was willing to accept. </s> |
550 | <s>[INST] The International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury Department seem to suspect that the [/INST] currency board is being proposed as a substitute for the reforms that President Suharto agreed to, rather than as a tool to facilitate those vital changes. </s> |
551 | <s>[INST] These doubts, justified or not, greatly reduce [/INST] the chances that the currency board will create credibility among international investors. </s> |
552 | <s>[INST] Given its current situation, Indonesia does not appear [/INST] to meet the conditions that determined the success of the Convertibility Law in Argentina. </s> |
553 | <s>[INST] Still, considering the high risks faced by Indonesia today and [/INST] given our experience in Argentina, I would dare to make what I hope is a constructive suggestion. </s> |
554 | <s>[INST] The Indonesian government should now set [/INST] aside the idea of implementing a Hong Kong-style currency board. </s> |
555 | <s>[INST] Instead it should make additional efforts to convince domestic and foreign [/INST] policy makers and investors that it is committed to implementing the economic reforms already agreed to with the IMF. </s> |
556 | <s>[INST] It should firmly decide which banks are in condition to remain open [/INST] and which should unquestionably be closed, a step that is critical for allowing and recreating adequate financial intermediation in rupiah and dollars. </s> |
557 | <s>[INST] Of course, credit in rupiah should be financed with deposits in that [/INST] currency while credits in dollars with dollar deposits, limiting the currency risks that financial institutions can take in either of the two monies. </s> |
558 | <s>[INST] At the same time, Indonesia should invite the IMF, the U.S., [/INST] Japan and possibly Singapore to discuss a mechanism to stabilize the value of the rupiah at the lowest possible interest rate. </s> |
559 | <s>[INST] My prediction is that within a few weeks, [/INST] such talks would produce a plan not terribly unlike the Argentine Convertibility Law. </s> |
560 | <s>[INST] In fact, in Argentina and abroad the "Argentine currency board" [/INST] came to be known as such three years after the new monetary system was set in place. </s> |
561 | <s>[INST] Much more important than the name [/INST] is achieving the minimum consensus necessary to make it credible. </s> |
562 | <s>[INST] What is most clear is that the stabilization of [/INST] the rupiah should help accelerate, never prevent, the financial and economic reforms that Indonesia so urgently needs. </s> |
563 | <s>[INST] Mr. Cavallo, a former minister of economy, public works [/INST] and services of Argentina, is publisher of the new Forbes Global Business & Finance magazine. </s> |
564 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 169 of 500 Concerns Over Persistent U.S. Economic Strength, Expectations of Payroll [/INST] Report Pull Bonds Lower Author: By Gregory Zuckerman and Brian Blackstone Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 04 Mar 1998: C20. </s> |
565 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Concern over stronger-than-expected housing data, remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman [/INST] Alan Greenspan, and expectations of a strong employment report this Friday led investors to sell bonds, extending the Treasury markets' recent weakness. </s> |
566 | <s>[INST] "I thought we'd do better, but there's a sour taste out there and no one wants to step up to [/INST] the plate and buy," said David Ging, Treasury market strategist at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Inc. "There's also been a lot of supply of new bonds (in the past week) that the market is trying to digest". </s> |
567 | <s>[INST] Testimony by Mr. Greenspan before the Senate Appropriations Committee -- he [/INST] was testifying with Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin on funding for the International Monetary Fund -- put further pressure on Treasurys. </s> |
568 | <s>[INST] Mr. Greenspan reiterated that the probability of the [/INST] Asian crisis having unexpectedly large negative effects on the U.S. economy is small. </s> |
569 | <s>[INST] Full text: NEW YORK -- Concern over stronger-than-expected housing data, remarks by Federal [/INST] Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, and expectations of a strong employment report this Friday led investors to sell bonds, extending the Treasury markets' recent weakness. </s> |
570 | <s>[INST] In late trading, the bellwether 30-year Treasury bond [/INST] fell 29/32, or $9.0625 for a bond with $1,000 face value, to 100 18/32. </s> |
571 | <s>[INST] The bond's yield, which moves in [/INST] the opposite direction of its price, rose to 6.074% from 6.009%. </s> |
572 | <s>[INST] Treasurys were weak from the outset of trading, and [/INST] although some buying interest picked up in the afternoon, the market limped to a finish. </s> |
573 | <s>[INST] Some market participants were surprised the bond's yield, which closed [/INST] above 6% Monday for the first time in almost three months, did little to inspire buying interest. </s> |
574 | <s>[INST] "I thought we'd do better, but there's a sour taste out there and no one wants to step up to [/INST] the plate and buy," said David Ging, Treasury market strategist at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Inc. "There's also been a lot of supply of new bonds [in the past week] that the market is trying to digest". </s> |
575 | <s>[INST] Robust housing data helped the market get off on the wrong foot, as investors [/INST] expressed concern that U.S. consumer spending will continue to spark strong economic growth, and discourage the Fed from cutting interest rates, in the months ahead. </s> |
576 | <s>[INST] The Commerce Department reported a 10.3% surge [/INST] in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 877,000 for January. </s> |
577 | <s>[INST] "The housing numbers are absolutely over the top," [/INST] said Brian McMahon, president of the Thornburg Funds, which manages $1.8 billion in fixed-income assets. </s> |
578 | <s>[INST] The housing figures mean it will take a [/INST] lot of weakness from Asia to offset the clear strength in the U.S. economy. </s> |
579 | <s>[INST] Testimony by Mr. Greenspan before the Senate Appropriations Committee -- he [/INST] was testifying with Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin on funding for the International Monetary Fund -- put further pressure on Treasurys. </s> |
580 | <s>[INST] Mr. Greenspan reiterated that the probability of the [/INST] Asian crisis having unexpectedly large negative effects on the U.S. economy is small. </s> |
581 | <s>[INST] "There's been a sharp reversal in [/INST] terms of sentiment," said Bob Walton, a trader at Nomura Securities. </s> |
582 | <s>[INST] "Asia is not as [/INST] big a problem from the economy's standpoint". </s> |
583 | <s>[INST] Elsewhere, the Conference Board reported [/INST] that the leading indicators index for January was unchanged. </s> |
584 | <s>[INST] The BTM/Schroder retail chain store sales index rose 0.2% [/INST] in the week ended Saturday from the week before, on a seasonally adjusted comparable-store basis. </s> |
585 | <s>[INST] Recent economic data, including the National Association of Purchasing Management [/INST] index for February, has demonstrated that U.S. domestic demand has offset the negative impact from Asia so far. </s> |
586 | <s>[INST] And while some investors await the true effect of the Asian downturn [/INST] on the U.S. economy, others are reluctantly concluding that visions of a 5.5% long-bond yield this year are becoming less clear. </s> |
587 | <s>[INST] The focus of the market [/INST] is now on the payroll figures for February. </s> |
588 | <s>[INST] According to the median estimate of 20 economists surveyed by Dow Jones [/INST] Newswires, nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by 250,000, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.6% from 4.7% in January. </s> |
589 | <s>[INST] While the report's release has caused consternation in the bond market [/INST] in recent days, the declines in bond prices in the past few days have given some traders a ray of hope. </s> |
590 | <s>[INST] "The employment report now is a source of hope [/INST] for the market, because we've discounted a lot of bad news," said Mr. Ging of DLJ. </s> |
591 | <s>[INST] Junk Bonds Syndicate officials held up pricing a $200 million five-year [/INST] Yankee bond offering from Argentine energy giant YPF SA to include protection from possible changes in Argentina's tax law. </s> |
592 | <s>[INST] The deal, originally expected earlier [/INST] this week, is now scheduled to price tomorrow. </s> |
593 | <s>[INST] The Argentine government last week said it is [/INST] considering a 15% tax on the interest payments of the country's corporate-debt deals. </s> |
594 | <s>[INST] One emerging markets analyst said the [/INST] change would affect an estimated $10 billion of Argentine corporate debt. </s> |
595 | <s>[INST] "It's one clause of a broad tax reform process" [/INST] under way in Argentina, said David Roberts, director of sovereign research at NationsBanc Montgomery Securities. </s> |
596 | <s>[INST] "But it's extremely unclear what [/INST] in fact will happen" with the plan. </s> |
597 | <s>[INST] Corporate Bonds Cable & Wireless Communications PLC sold $1.8 billion of [/INST] debt in what the company said was the largest Yankee bond offering ever sold by a United Kingdom-based issuer. </s> |
598 | <s>[INST] The deal, which was increased from a planned $1 billion, marked [/INST] the first large offering during a week that is expected to bring as much as $10 billion in new corporate supply. </s> |
599 | <s>[INST] And that isn't counting $4.75 billion in three-year and 10-year benchmark [/INST] notes priced yesterday by Fannie Mae and a possible $3 billion to $5 billion deal from the World Bank. </s> |
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