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300 | <s>[INST] Everybody agrees with what the Vice Chairman said, and [/INST] I hope you took note of it. Now that I’ve made you feel better , I have just a very simple question. On t he TAF, has the portion of foreign participation gone down? </s> |
301 | <s>[INST] More mundane questions, but by the way, Bill, thank you for your service. Everybody agrees with what the Vice Chairman said, and [/INST] I hope you took note of it. Now that I’ve made you feel better , I have just a very simple question. </s> |
302 | <s>[INST] Now that I’ve made you feel better , [/INST] I have just a very simple question. On t he TAF, has the portion of foreign participation gone down? MR. </s> |
303 | <s>[INST] Everybody agrees with what the Vice Chairman said, and I hope you took note of it. Now that I’ve made you feel better , [/INST] I have just a very simple question. On t he TAF, has the portion of foreign participation gone down? </s> |
304 | <s>[INST] On t he TAF, has the portion [/INST] of foreign participation gone down? MR. DUDLEY. </s> |
305 | <s>[INST] Now that I’ve made you feel better , I have just a very simple question. On t he TAF, has the portion [/INST] of foreign participation gone down? MR. </s> |
306 | <s>[INST] It will be interesting now with [/INST] the reintroduction of the swap. You know, the ECB will essentially have a noncompetitive auction with us on this coming Monday. It will be interesting to see how that affects the TAF auction results . </s> |
307 | <s>[INST] It’s high. It will be interesting now with [/INST] the reintroduction of the swap. You know, the ECB will essentially have a noncompetitive auction with us on this coming Monday. </s> |
308 | <s>[INST] You know, the ECB will essentially have a noncompetitive [/INST] auction with us on this coming Monday. It will be interesting to see how that affects the TAF auction results . MR. </s> |
309 | <s>[INST] It will be interesting now with the reintroduction of the swap. You know, the ECB will essentially have a noncompetitive [/INST] auction with us on this coming Monday. It will be interesting to see how that affects the TAF auction results . </s> |
310 | <s>[INST] It will be interesting to see how that [/INST] affects the TAF auction results . MR. FISHER. </s> |
311 | <s>[INST] You know, the ECB will essentially have a noncompetitive auction with us on this coming Monday. It will be interesting to see how that [/INST] affects the TAF auction results . MR. </s> |
312 | <s>[INST] T hen the second question, Bill, which [/INST] I raised on the phone. I don’t remember an answer. Is it correct that German b unds have now traded through T reasuries in terms of default risk , and is that meaningful at all? </s> |
313 | <s>[INST] FISHER. T hen the second question, Bill, which [/INST] I raised on the phone. I don’t remember an answer. </s> |
314 | <s>[INST] Is it correct that German b unds have now traded through T reasuries [/INST] in terms of default risk , and is that meaningful at all? MR. DUDLEY. </s> |
315 | <s>[INST] I don’t remember an answer. Is it correct that German b unds have now traded through T reasuries [/INST] in terms of default risk , and is that meaningful at all? MR. </s> |
316 | <s>[INST] I think there was a day that that might have happened, [/INST] but I don’t really know the answer to that. I’m not sure what that really means. MR. </s> |
317 | <s>[INST] DUDLEY. I think there was a day that that might have happened, [/INST] but I don’t really know the answer to that. I’m not sure what that really means. </s> |
318 | <s>[INST] If that were to happen, I’m not sure [/INST] what I would make of it. That would probably reflect more what’s going on between different countries in Europe than to have anything really to do with us versus Germany. That’s how I would interpret it. </s> |
319 | <s>[INST] DUDLEY. If that were to happen, I’m not sure [/INST] what I would make of it. That would probably reflect more what’s going on between different countries in Europe than to have anything really to do with us versus Germany. </s> |
320 | <s>[INST] That would probably reflect more what’s going on between different countries in Europe [/INST] than to have anything really to do with us versus Germany. That’s how I would interpret it. MR. </s> |
321 | <s>[INST] If that were to happen, I’m not sure what I would make of it. That would probably reflect more what’s going on between different countries in Europe [/INST] than to have anything really to do with us versus Germany. That’s how I would interpret it. </s> |
322 | <s>[INST] I’d like to commend the New York Fed staff for what I know [/INST] has been a very difficult time over the p ast week. My question is almost the opposite of President Lacker’s. He raises some interesting points , but I wonder. </s> |
323 | <s>[INST] ROSENG REN. I’d like to commend the New York Fed staff for what I know [/INST] has been a very difficult time over the p ast week. My question is almost the opposite of President Lacker’s. </s> |
324 | <s>[INST] G iven the stigma issues involv ed and what’s just happened with Bear Stearns , you would think that borrowing at any kind of penalty rate for an investment [/INST] bank , which arguably is more susceptible to runs than the typical commercial bank, is something that no one would take advantage of because of concerns about stigma. Is there any evidence that there’s more stigma? How are the primary dealers viewing this, and have they raised concerns about confidentiality and what would be disclosed? </s> |
325 | <s>[INST] He raises some interesting points , but I wonder. G iven the stigma issues involv ed and what’s just happened with Bear Stearns , you would think that borrowing at any kind of penalty rate for an investment [/INST] bank , which arguably is more susceptible to runs than the typical commercial bank, is something that no one would take advantage of because of concerns about stigma. Is there any evidence that there’s more stigma? </s> |
326 | <s>[INST] How are the primary dealers viewing this, and have they [/INST] raised concerns about confidentiality and what would be disclosed? March 18, 200812 of 127 MR. DUDLEY. </s> |
327 | <s>[INST] Is there any evidence that there’s more stigma? How are the primary dealers viewing this, and have they [/INST] raised concerns about confidentiality and what would be disclosed? March 18, 200812 of 127 MR. </s> |
328 | <s>[INST] Yes, we have certainly gotten questions about [/INST] how this will be disclosed. Now, there will be a disclosure. There will be a line item in the H . </s> |
329 | <s>[INST] DUDLEY. Yes, we have certainly gotten questions about [/INST] how this will be disclosed. Now, there will be a disclosure. </s> |
330 | <s>[INST] 4.1 re lease, but it will just show the [/INST] total dollar amounts extended through this facility. It is all bid through the New York District, so the total primary dealer borrowing will be shown in that re lease. The stigma issue is a legitimate issue, and that is why we have to be very careful about how we talk about this and take tremendous care not to disclose who or even what type of institution uses i t. But at the end of the day, if you can’t fund your repo and your only choice is to come to the PDCF, that is probably what you are going to do. </s> |
331 | <s>[INST] There will be a line item in the H . 4.1 re lease, but it will just show the [/INST] total dollar amounts extended through this facility. It is all bid through the New York District, so the total primary dealer borrowing will be shown in that re lease. </s> |
332 | <s>[INST] It is all bid through the New York District, so the total [/INST] primary dealer borrowing will be shown in that re lease. The stigma issue is a legitimate issue, and that is why we have to be very careful about how we talk about this and take tremendous care not to disclose who or even what type of institution uses i t. But at the end of the day, if you can’t fund your repo and your only choice is to come to the PDCF, that is probably what you are going to do. Now, to come back to Vice Chairman Geithner’s point, I think that is exactly right, though. </s> |
333 | <s>[INST] 4.1 re lease, but it will just show the total dollar amounts extended through this facility. It is all bid through the New York District, so the total [/INST] primary dealer borrowing will be shown in that re lease. The stigma issue is a legitimate issue, and that is why we have to be very careful about how we talk about this and take tremendous care not to disclose who or even what type of institution uses i t. But at the end of the day, if you can’t fund your repo and your only choice is to come to the PDCF, that is probably what you are going to do. </s> |
334 | <s>[INST] The stigma issue is a legitimate issue, and that is why we have to be very careful about how we talk about this and take tremendous care not to disclose who or even what type of institution [/INST] uses i t. But at the end of the day, if you can’t fund your repo and your only choice is to come to the PDCF, that is probably what you are going to do. Now, to come back to Vice Chairman Geithner’s point, I think that is exactly right, though. The fact that to the extent that there is stigma, they are not going to want to come , and that is going to reinforce the deleveraging process that is clearly under way, as is the fact that they just saw Bear Stearns go from a troubled but viable firm to a nonviable firm in three days. </s> |
335 | <s>[INST] It is all bid through the New York District, so the total primary dealer borrowing will be shown in that re lease. The stigma issue is a legitimate issue, and that is why we have to be very careful about how we talk about this and take tremendous care not to disclose who or even what type of institution [/INST] uses i t. But at the end of the day, if you can’t fund your repo and your only choice is to come to the PDCF, that is probably what you are going to do. Now, to come back to Vice Chairman Geithner’s point, I think that is exactly right, though. </s> |
336 | <s>[INST] Now, to come back to Vice Chairman Geithner’s point, [/INST] I think that is exactly right, though. The fact that to the extent that there is stigma, they are not going to want to come , and that is going to reinforce the deleveraging process that is clearly under way, as is the fact that they just saw Bear Stearns go from a troubled but viable firm to a nonviable firm in three days. The lesson from that for a lot of firms is going to be, oh, I need more liquidity, I need to be less leveraged, and that lesson, from what happened to Bear Stearns, isn’t going to go away. </s> |
337 | <s>[INST] The stigma issue is a legitimate issue, and that is why we have to be very careful about how we talk about this and take tremendous care not to disclose who or even what type of institution uses i t. But at the end of the day, if you can’t fund your repo and your only choice is to come to the PDCF, that is probably what you are going to do. Now, to come back to Vice Chairman Geithner’s point, [/INST] I think that is exactly right, though. The fact that to the extent that there is stigma, they are not going to want to come , and that is going to reinforce the deleveraging process that is clearly under way, as is the fact that they just saw Bear Stearns go from a troubled but viable firm to a nonviable firm in three days. </s> |
338 | <s>[INST] The fact that to the extent that there is stigma, they are not going to want to come , and that is going to reinforce the deleveraging process that [/INST] is clearly under way, as is the fact that they just saw Bear Stearns go from a troubled but viable firm to a nonviable firm in three days. The lesson from that for a lot of firms is going to be, oh, I need more liquidity, I need to be less leveraged, and that lesson, from what happened to Bear Stearns, isn’t going to go away. CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. </s> |
339 | <s>[INST] Now, to come back to Vice Chairman Geithner’s point, I think that is exactly right, though. The fact that to the extent that there is stigma, they are not going to want to come , and that is going to reinforce the deleveraging process that [/INST] is clearly under way, as is the fact that they just saw Bear Stearns go from a troubled but viable firm to a nonviable firm in three days. The lesson from that for a lot of firms is going to be, oh, I need more liquidity, I need to be less leveraged, and that lesson, from what happened to Bear Stearns, isn’t going to go away. </s> |
340 | <s>[INST] The lesson from that for a lot of firms is going to be, oh, I need more liquidity, I need [/INST] to be less leveraged, and that lesson, from what happened to Bear Stearns, isn’t going to go away. CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Governor Warsh. </s> |
341 | <s>[INST] The fact that to the extent that there is stigma, they are not going to want to come , and that is going to reinforce the deleveraging process that is clearly under way, as is the fact that they just saw Bear Stearns go from a troubled but viable firm to a nonviable firm in three days. The lesson from that for a lot of firms is going to be, oh, I need more liquidity, I need [/INST] to be less leveraged, and that lesson, from what happened to Bear Stearns, isn’t going to go away. CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. </s> |
342 | <s>[INST] I’m under the impression—Bill, you correct me —in the earnings call from the investment banks today and tomorrow, the four remaining are going to do all they can to destigmatize this facility with answers to the [/INST] effect that “we haven’t tapped the facility yet, but we would be very open to do it in the right circumstances” and to provide some comfort that it is not stigmatizing in their own minds. For the strongest of those firms to say that should provide some halo for the rest. But to Bill’s point, I think w e will have to evaluate that as we go. </s> |
343 | <s>[INST] WARSH. I’m under the impression—Bill, you correct me —in the earnings call from the investment banks today and tomorrow, the four remaining are going to do all they can to destigmatize this facility with answers to the [/INST] effect that “we haven’t tapped the facility yet, but we would be very open to do it in the right circumstances” and to provide some comfort that it is not stigmatizing in their own minds. For the strongest of those firms to say that should provide some halo for the rest. </s> |
344 | <s>[INST] For the strongest of those firms to say that [/INST] should provide some halo for the rest. But to Bill’s point, I think w e will have to evaluate that as we go. CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. </s> |
345 | <s>[INST] I’m under the impression—Bill, you correct me —in the earnings call from the investment banks today and tomorrow, the four remaining are going to do all they can to destigmatize this facility with answers to the effect that “we haven’t tapped the facility yet, but we would be very open to do it in the right circumstances” and to provide some comfort that it is not stigmatizing in their own minds. For the strongest of those firms to say that [/INST] should provide some halo for the rest. But to Bill’s point, I think w e will have to evaluate that as we go. </s> |
346 | <s>[INST] But to Bill’s point, I think w e will [/INST] have to evaluate that as we go. CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. I think it is incumbent upon me to point out that the Board staff was also very involved, and I mention Brian Madigan, Pat Parkinson, Scott Alvarez, March 18, 200813 of 127 Deborah Bailey, and others as well. </s> |
347 | <s>[INST] For the strongest of those firms to say that should provide some halo for the rest. But to Bill’s point, I think w e will [/INST] have to evaluate that as we go. CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. </s> |
348 | <s>[INST] I think it is incumbent upon me to point out that the Board staff was also very involved, and I [/INST] mention Brian Madigan, Pat Parkinson, Scott Alvarez, March 18, 200813 of 127 Deborah Bailey, and others as well. So it was very much a joint effort. Other questions for Bill? </s> |
349 | <s>[INST] CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. I think it is incumbent upon me to point out that the Board staff was also very involved, and I [/INST] mention Brian Madigan, Pat Parkinson, Scott Alvarez, March 18, 200813 of 127 Deborah Bailey, and others as well. So it was very much a joint effort. </s> |
350 | <s>[INST] Oh, I am sorry, we need a vote [/INST] to ratify the open market operations. MR. KOHN. </s> |
351 | <s>[INST] If not, we’ll turn to Dave Stockton. Oh, I am sorry, we need a vote [/INST] to ratify the open market operations. MR. </s> |
352 | <s>[INST] As you know, we have made some very large changes to the economic projection in this round—so large, in fact, that [/INST] we had to adjust the scale on the forecast evolution charts that we put in the back of the Greenbook. Obviously, the most notable change has been our adoption of the view that the economy is moving into recession. I thought it would be helpful to briefly review this morning our reasons for making that call at this time. </s> |
353 | <s>[INST] Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As you know, we have made some very large changes to the economic projection in this round—so large, in fact, that [/INST] we had to adjust the scale on the forecast evolution charts that we put in the back of the Greenbook. Obviously, the most notable change has been our adoption of the view that the economy is moving into recession. </s> |
354 | <s>[INST] Obviously, the most notable change has been our adoption of [/INST] the view that the economy is moving into recession. I thought it would be helpful to briefly review this morning our reasons for making that call at this time. In addition, I will lay out the rationale for the depth and duration of the weakness in real activity that we are now projecting. </s> |
355 | <s>[INST] As you know, we have made some very large changes to the economic projection in this round—so large, in fact, that we had to adjust the scale on the forecast evolution charts that we put in the back of the Greenbook. Obviously, the most notable change has been our adoption of [/INST] the view that the economy is moving into recession. I thought it would be helpful to briefly review this morning our reasons for making that call at this time. </s> |
356 | <s>[INST] I thought it would be helpful to briefly review this morning [/INST] our reasons for making that call at this time. In addition, I will lay out the rationale for the depth and duration of the weakness in real activity that we are now projecting. Finally, I will explain why, with so much more projected slack in resource utilization, inflatio n has, on average, been revised up from our January projection. </s> |
357 | <s>[INST] Obviously, the most notable change has been our adoption of the view that the economy is moving into recession. I thought it would be helpful to briefly review this morning [/INST] our reasons for making that call at this time. In addition, I will lay out the rationale for the depth and duration of the weakness in real activity that we are now projecting. </s> |
358 | <s>[INST] In addition, I will lay out the rationale for the depth and duration [/INST] of the weakness in real activity that we are now projecting. Finally, I will explain why, with so much more projected slack in resource utilization, inflatio n has, on average, been revised up from our January projection. We have noted on several occasions in the past few months that our decision to stick with a forecast in which the economy muddles through its current difficulties without falling into recess ion was a close call. </s> |
359 | <s>[INST] I thought it would be helpful to briefly review this morning our reasons for making that call at this time. In addition, I will lay out the rationale for the depth and duration [/INST] of the weakness in real activity that we are now projecting. Finally, I will explain why, with so much more projected slack in resource utilization, inflatio n has, on average, been revised up from our January projection. </s> |
360 | <s>[INST] Finally, I will explain why, with so much more projected slack in resource utilization, [/INST] inflatio n has, on average, been revised up from our January projection. We have noted on several occasions in the past few months that our decision to stick with a forecast in which the economy muddles through its current difficulties without falling into recess ion was a close call. Well, over the intermeeting period, we continued to accumulate a bleak array of economic indicators. </s> |
361 | <s>[INST] In addition, I will lay out the rationale for the depth and duration of the weakness in real activity that we are now projecting. Finally, I will explain why, with so much more projected slack in resource utilization, [/INST] inflatio n has, on average, been revised up from our January projection. We have noted on several occasions in the past few months that our decision to stick with a forecast in which the economy muddles through its current difficulties without falling into recess ion was a close call. </s> |
362 | <s>[INST] We have noted on several occasions in the past few months that our decision to stick with a forecast [/INST] in which the economy muddles through its current difficulties without falling into recess ion was a close call. Well, over the intermeeting period, we continued to accumulate a bleak array of economic indicators. Consumer confidence moved still lower and , in the case of the Reuters/Michigan measure, dropped to levels last registered in the ea rly 1990s. </s> |
363 | <s>[INST] Finally, I will explain why, with so much more projected slack in resource utilization, inflatio n has, on average, been revised up from our January projection. We have noted on several occasions in the past few months that our decision to stick with a forecast [/INST] in which the economy muddles through its current difficulties without falling into recess ion was a close call. Well, over the intermeeting period, we continued to accumulate a bleak array of economic indicators. </s> |
364 | <s>[INST] Well, over the intermeeting period, we continued to [/INST] accumulate a bleak array of economic indicators. Consumer confidence moved still lower and , in the case of the Reuters/Michigan measure, dropped to levels last registered in the ea rly 1990s. Regional indexes of business sentiment continued to deteriorate noticeably, with steep drops in the measures reported for New York, Chicago , and Philadelphia. </s> |
365 | <s>[INST] We have noted on several occasions in the past few months that our decision to stick with a forecast in which the economy muddles through its current difficulties without falling into recess ion was a close call. Well, over the intermeeting period, we continued to [/INST] accumulate a bleak array of economic indicators. Consumer confidence moved still lower and , in the case of the Reuters/Michigan measure, dropped to levels last registered in the ea rly 1990s. </s> |
366 | <s>[INST] Consumer confidence moved still lower and , in the case of the Reuters/Michigan [/INST] measure, dropped to levels last registered in the ea rly 1990s. Regional indexes of business sentiment continued to deteriorate noticeably, with steep drops in the measures reported for New York, Chicago , and Philadelphia. Although the weakness was less pronounced in the national ISM surveys, the composite indexes for both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing were below 50 in February. </s> |
367 | <s>[INST] Well, over the intermeeting period, we continued to accumulate a bleak array of economic indicators. Consumer confidence moved still lower and , in the case of the Reuters/Michigan [/INST] measure, dropped to levels last registered in the ea rly 1990s. Regional indexes of business sentiment continued to deteriorate noticeably, with steep drops in the measures reported for New York, Chicago , and Philadelphia. </s> |
368 | <s>[INST] Regional indexes of business sentiment continued to deteriorate noticeably, with steep drops [/INST] in the measures reported for New York, Chicago , and Philadelphia. Although the weakness was less pronounced in the national ISM surveys, the composite indexes for both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing were below 50 in February. Small businesses—as reported in the survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Businesses—and larger businesses—as captured by the Duke University Survey of Chief Financial Officers —have turned very pessimistic. </s> |
369 | <s>[INST] Consumer confidence moved still lower and , in the case of the Reuters/Michigan measure, dropped to levels last registered in the ea rly 1990s. Regional indexes of business sentiment continued to deteriorate noticeably, with steep drops [/INST] in the measures reported for New York, Chicago , and Philadelphia. Although the weakness was less pronounced in the national ISM surveys, the composite indexes for both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing were below 50 in February. </s> |
370 | <s>[INST] Although the weakness was less pronounced in the national ISM surveys, the composite [/INST] indexes for both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing were below 50 in February. Small businesses—as reported in the survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Businesses—and larger businesses—as captured by the Duke University Survey of Chief Financial Officers —have turned very pessimistic. These indicators taken alone, or even in limited combination, might not be that troubling. </s> |
371 | <s>[INST] Regional indexes of business sentiment continued to deteriorate noticeably, with steep drops in the measures reported for New York, Chicago , and Philadelphia. Although the weakness was less pronounced in the national ISM surveys, the composite [/INST] indexes for both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing were below 50 in February. Small businesses—as reported in the survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Businesses—and larger businesses—as captured by the Duke University Survey of Chief Financial Officers —have turned very pessimistic. </s> |
372 | <s>[INST] Small businesses—as reported in the survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Businesses—and larger businesses—as [/INST] captured by the Duke University Survey of Chief Financial Officers —have turned very pessimistic. These indicators taken alone, or even in limited combination, might not be that troubling. But when viewed as a whole and especially when taken in conjunction with the many financial indicators that ha ve been flashing recession signals for some time, the pattern of recent readings is disturbing. </s> |
373 | <s>[INST] Although the weakness was less pronounced in the national ISM surveys, the composite indexes for both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing were below 50 in February. Small businesses—as reported in the survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Businesses—and larger businesses—as [/INST] captured by the Duke University Survey of Chief Financial Officers —have turned very pessimistic. These indicators taken alone, or even in limited combination, might not be that troubling. </s> |
374 | <s>[INST] These indicators taken alone, or even in limited [/INST] combination, might not be that troubling. But when viewed as a whole and especially when taken in conjunction with the many financial indicators that ha ve been flashing recession signals for some time, the pattern of recent readings is disturbing. Furthermore, recession signals are no longer limited to surveys and financial indicators. </s> |
375 | <s>[INST] Small businesses—as reported in the survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Businesses—and larger businesses—as captured by the Duke University Survey of Chief Financial Officers —have turned very pessimistic. These indicators taken alone, or even in limited [/INST] combination, might not be that troubling. But when viewed as a whole and especially when taken in conjunction with the many financial indicators that ha ve been flashing recession signals for some time, the pattern of recent readings is disturbing. </s> |
376 | <s>[INST] But when viewed as a whole and especially when taken in conjunction with the many financial indicators that [/INST] ha ve been flashing recession signals for some time, the pattern of recent readings is disturbing. Furthermore, recession signals are no longer limited to surveys and financial indicators. Private payroll employment is estimated to have dropped 101,000 in February, and there were sizable downward revisions to earlier months that left employment showing declines in both December and January. </s> |
377 | <s>[INST] These indicators taken alone, or even in limited combination, might not be that troubling. But when viewed as a whole and especially when taken in conjunction with the many financial indicators that [/INST] ha ve been flashing recession signals for some time, the pattern of recent readings is disturbing. Furthermore, recession signals are no longer limited to surveys and financial indicators. </s> |
378 | <s>[INST] Furthermore, recession signals are no longer limited [/INST] to surveys and financial indicators. Private payroll employment is estimated to have dropped 101,000 in February, and there were sizable downward revisions to earlier months that left employment showing declines in both December and January. Industrial production dropped 0.5 percent in February, and manufacturing IP fell 0.2 percent. </s> |
379 | <s>[INST] But when viewed as a whole and especially when taken in conjunction with the many financial indicators that ha ve been flashing recession signals for some time, the pattern of recent readings is disturbing. Furthermore, recession signals are no longer limited [/INST] to surveys and financial indicators. Private payroll employment is estimated to have dropped 101,000 in February, and there were sizable downward revisions to earlier months that left employment showing declines in both December and January. </s> |
380 | <s>[INST] Private payroll employment is estimated to have dropped 101,000 in February, and there were sizable downward [/INST] revisions to earlier months that left employment showing declines in both December and January. Industrial production dropped 0.5 percent in February, and manufacturing IP fell 0.2 percent. The weakness in industrial production occurred not only in the series in which we use March 18, 200814 of 127 production worker hours to estimate output but also in series where we have measures of physical product. </s> |
381 | <s>[INST] Furthermore, recession signals are no longer limited to surveys and financial indicators. Private payroll employment is estimated to have dropped 101,000 in February, and there were sizable downward [/INST] revisions to earlier months that left employment showing declines in both December and January. Industrial production dropped 0.5 percent in February, and manufacturing IP fell 0.2 percent. </s> |
382 | <s>[INST] Industrial production dropped 0.5 percent in February, [/INST] and manufacturing IP fell 0.2 percent. The weakness in industrial production occurred not only in the series in which we use March 18, 200814 of 127 production worker hours to estimate output but also in series where we have measures of physical product. For both payroll employment and industrial production, diffusion indexes indicate tha t the weakness has been spread widely across industries. </s> |
383 | <s>[INST] Private payroll employment is estimated to have dropped 101,000 in February, and there were sizable downward revisions to earlier months that left employment showing declines in both December and January. Industrial production dropped 0.5 percent in February, [/INST] and manufacturing IP fell 0.2 percent. The weakness in industrial production occurred not only in the series in which we use March 18, 200814 of 127 production worker hours to estimate output but also in series where we have measures of physical product. </s> |
384 | <s>[INST] The weakness in industrial production occurred not only in the series in which we use March 18, 200814 of [/INST] 127 production worker hours to estimate output but also in series where we have measures of physical product. For both payroll employment and industrial production, diffusion indexes indicate tha t the weakness has been spread widely across industries. This morning’s data on housing starts also suggest little end in sight to the ongoing recession in housing. </s> |
385 | <s>[INST] Industrial production dropped 0.5 percent in February, and manufacturing IP fell 0.2 percent. The weakness in industrial production occurred not only in the series in which we use March 18, 200814 of [/INST] 127 production worker hours to estimate output but also in series where we have measures of physical product. For both payroll employment and industrial production, diffusion indexes indicate tha t the weakness has been spread widely across industries. </s> |
386 | <s>[INST] For both payroll employment and industrial production, diffusion indexes indicate tha [/INST] t the weakness has been spread widely across industries. This morning’s data on housing starts also suggest little end in sight to the ongoing recession in housing. Single- family starts fell more than 6 ½ percent , to 707,000 units, in February, and permits dropped a similar amount. </s> |
387 | <s>[INST] The weakness in industrial production occurred not only in the series in which we use March 18, 200814 of 127 production worker hours to estimate output but also in series where we have measures of physical product. For both payroll employment and industrial production, diffusion indexes indicate tha [/INST] t the weakness has been spread widely across industries. This morning’s data on housing starts also suggest little end in sight to the ongoing recession in housing. </s> |
388 | <s>[INST] This morning’s data on housing starts also suggest little end [/INST] in sight to the ongoing recession in housing. Single- family starts fell more than 6 ½ percent , to 707,000 units, in February, and permits dropped a similar amount. Both figures were very close to our expectations. </s> |
389 | <s>[INST] For both payroll employment and industrial production, diffusion indexes indicate tha t the weakness has been spread widely across industries. This morning’s data on housing starts also suggest little end [/INST] in sight to the ongoing recession in housing. Single- family starts fell more than 6 ½ percent , to 707,000 units, in February, and permits dropped a similar amount. </s> |
390 | <s>[INST] Single- family starts fell more than 6 ½ percent , to [/INST] 707,000 units, in February, and permits dropped a similar amount. Both figures were very close to our expectations. Multifamily starts moved up to 360,000 units, but that figure follows some low figures late last year, and we wouldn’t attach much signal to that reading. </s> |
391 | <s>[INST] This morning’s data on housing starts also suggest little end in sight to the ongoing recession in housing. Single- family starts fell more than 6 ½ percent , to [/INST] 707,000 units, in February, and permits dropped a similar amount. Both figures were very close to our expectations. </s> |
392 | <s>[INST] Multifamily starts moved up to 360,000 units, but that figure follows some low figures [/INST] late last year, and we wouldn’t attach much signal to that reading. Moreover, while I ce rtainly am not going to try to predict what the NBER will ultimately do, a number of the series consulted by the dating committee appear to have peaked late last year or early this year —at least on the currently published data. Real personal income, industrial production, payroll employment, and real manufacturing and trade sales all have local peaks sometime between October and January. </s> |
393 | <s>[INST] Both figures were very close to our expectations. Multifamily starts moved up to 360,000 units, but that figure follows some low figures [/INST] late last year, and we wouldn’t attach much signal to that reading. Moreover, while I ce rtainly am not going to try to predict what the NBER will ultimately do, a number of the series consulted by the dating committee appear to have peaked late last year or early this year —at least on the currently published data. </s> |
394 | <s>[INST] Moreover, while I ce rtainly am not going to try to predict what the NBER will ultimately do, a number of the series consulted [/INST] by the dating committee appear to have peaked late last year or early this year —at least on the currently published data. Real personal income, industrial production, payroll employment, and real manufacturing and trade sales all have local peaks sometime between October and January. All told, the evidence of a serious weakening of the economy appears to us more palpable now than it did in January. </s> |
395 | <s>[INST] Multifamily starts moved up to 360,000 units, but that figure follows some low figures late last year, and we wouldn’t attach much signal to that reading. Moreover, while I ce rtainly am not going to try to predict what the NBER will ultimately do, a number of the series consulted [/INST] by the dating committee appear to have peaked late last year or early this year —at least on the currently published data. Real personal income, industrial production, payroll employment, and real manufacturing and trade sales all have local peaks sometime between October and January. </s> |
396 | <s>[INST] Real personal income, industrial production, payroll employment, and real manufacturing and trade [/INST] sales all have local peaks sometime between October and January. All told, the evidence of a serious weakening of the economy appears to us more palpable now than it did in January. If one grants that the economy, from time to time, exhibits nonlinear behavior, then our forecast will need nonlinear changes to avoid making outsized errors. </s> |
397 | <s>[INST] Moreover, while I ce rtainly am not going to try to predict what the NBER will ultimately do, a number of the series consulted by the dating committee appear to have peaked late last year or early this year —at least on the currently published data. Real personal income, industrial production, payroll employment, and real manufacturing and trade [/INST] sales all have local peaks sometime between October and January. All told, the evidence of a serious weakening of the economy appears to us more palpable now than it did in January. </s> |
398 | <s>[INST] All told, the evidence of a serious weakening of the economy appears [/INST] to us more palpable now than it did in January. If one grants that the economy, from time to time, exhibits nonlinear behavior, then our forecast will need nonlinear changes to avoid making outsized errors. At this point, we’ve seen enough to make us think that recession is now more likely than a perio d of weak growth, and that is what we are forecasting. </s> |
399 | <s>[INST] Real personal income, industrial production, payroll employment, and real manufacturing and trade sales all have local peaks sometime between October and January. All told, the evidence of a serious weakening of the economy appears [/INST] to us more palpable now than it did in January. If one grants that the economy, from time to time, exhibits nonlinear behavior, then our forecast will need nonlinear changes to avoid making outsized errors. </s> |
Subsets and Splits