Text
stringlengths 10
317
| Date
stringclasses 2
values | Code
stringclasses 2
values | Tag
stringclasses 3
values | Section
float64 | Number
float64 | Topic
float64 | Label
stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The recovery in the world as a whole is expected to continue in the years immediately ahead, although at a slow rate. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | positive |
The international risk outlook has changed since December, with increased uncertainty about the development of economic activity and increased volatility on the financial markets. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
Oil prices have fallen, which is positive for global growth but has also led to low global inflation. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | positive |
The economic outlook differs from country to country and region to region. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
Economic activity in Sweden continues to improve in line with the forecast in December. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | positive |
Weak developments abroad are slowing down growth, but are counteracted somewhat by the fall in the oil price and a weaker krona. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
Following a slowdown at the end of last year, the labour market is expected to strengthen. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | positive |
Inflation is still low, although it was somewhat higher than expected in December. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
There are now signs that underlying inflation, illustrated by CPIF inflation excluding energy, has bottomed out and is rising. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | positive |
The krona is weaker than anticipated, which will also contribute to somewhat higher underlying inflation going forward. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
However, low energy prices are expected to hold back CPIF inflation in the year ahead and the assessment is that it will reach 2 per cent in mid-2016. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
The lower oil prices and the uncertain outlook abroad increase the risk that inflation will not rise rapidly enough. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
In order to support the upturn in underlying inflation so that CPIF inflation approaches 2 per cent and to ensure that long-term inflation expectations are compatible with the inflation target, a more expansionary monetary policy is needed. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | dovish |
The Executive Board of the Riksbank has therefore decided to cut the repo rate by 0.1 percentage points to −0.10 and to restore the interest rates for fine-tuning transactions to the repo rate +/− 0.1 percentage points. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | dovish |
In addition, the repo-rate path has been adjusted downwards somewhat. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | positive |
The Executive Board has also decided to purchase government bonds to an amount of SEK 10 billion. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | dovish |
If this proves insufficient to get inflation to rise towards the target, the Riksbank can quickly make monetary policy even more expansionary. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | dovish |
The measures taken and the readiness to do more underline the Riksbank's aim to safeguard the role of the inflation target as a nominal anchor for price setting and wage formation. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
In the Monetary Policy Update published in December, it was assumed that the fall in oil prices since the summer would have positive effects on global GDP growth. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Oil prices have fallen further since then (see Figure 1:1), which is expected to have further positive effects on the global economy. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
However, it is very difficult to say how great the effects on growth may be. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Estimates based on historical links between the price of oil and growth often fall within a relatively wide interval. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
At the same time, there are reasons to believe that the impact of oil prices has weakened over time , partly as a result of reduced energy use in relation to GDP. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In the main scenario it is assumed that the effects will be moderate both globally and in Sweden (for a discussion of the potential effects that a greater impact would have, see Chapter 2 "Alternative scenarios and risks"). | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
All in all, the assessment is that growth in KIX-weighted GDP, which covers the countries that are most important to the Swedish economy, will be marginally weaker in the years ahead than was assumed in December. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
This year, GDP growth is expected to remain at 2 per cent and thereafter to increase at a somewhat faster rate in the years ahead (see Figure 1:2). | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Substantial spare resources, weak demand and stagnating wage growth are, as previously, contributing to a downward trend in KIXweighted inflation. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The substantial fall in oil prices has reinforced this trend. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In December, the forecast for KIX inflation in 2015 was revised downwards significantly. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Since then, oil prices have fallen even more. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
However, in some of the commodity-exporting countries included in the KIX index, such as Russia, inflation will be higher than previously estimated as exchange rates have weakened. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The assessment for this year is that KIX inflation will slacken to 1 per cent, with negative inflation in both the United States and the euro area, and that it will thereafter rise and stabilise at just over 2 per cent at the end of the forecast period (see Figure 1:3). | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Gradual strengthening of economic activity in Sweden | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_title | null | null | null | positive |
The slow recovery abroad is reflected in the fact that Swedish exports have been subdued for some time. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The assessment is that the weak growth in consumption in the third quarter was temporary and that consumption will grow more rapidly in the years ahead. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
International demand is expected to gradually increase and thus lead to a more rapid increase in exports and corporate investment and to contribute to growth in 2016 and 2017 to a greater extent. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The Riksbank's overall assessment is that growth is normal at present and that GDP will grow by 2.7 per cent this year, 3.3 per cent in 2016 and 2.2 per cent in 2017 (see Figure 1:4). | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The rate of increase in employment and the labour force slowed down during the fourth quarter of last year and unemployment remained unchanged at 7.8 per cent. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
However, this slowdown is expected to be temporary. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The labour market will strengthen further as economic activity gradually strengthens. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Forward-looking indicators of the demand for labour, for example the number of job vacancies, indicate that the labour market will continue to strengthen going forward. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Unemployment is expected to fall in the years ahead and to be at 6.7 per cent at the end of the forecast period. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Inflation is very low and lower energy prices are expected to lead to low inflation over the next 12 months. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
However, this effect will be partly counteracted by the weakening of the krona (see also the article "Effects of the falling oil price on the global economy"). | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The current assessment is that the krona will remain at a weaker level for slightly longer than assessed in the previous forecast, which will help to keep inflation up. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | dovish |
Underlying inflation, for example the CPIF excluding energy, appears to have bottomed out and to be increasing. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Wages and prices are expected to rise at a faster pace as resource utilisation increases. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Import prices are also expected to rise as a result of the international recovery and to contribute to higher inflation. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
It is therefore expected that inflation measured in terms of the CPIF excluding energy is already rising more quickly than CPIF inflation but that the two measures will coincide later in the forecast period and reach 2 per cent in early 2016 (see Figures 1:5 and 1:27). | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Households' mortgage-interest expenditure will rise when the increases in the repo rate begin. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
This will in turn lead to CPI inflation increasing faster than CPIF inflation from the end of 2016 (see Figures 1:5 and 1:6). | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
More expansionary monetary policy and readiness to do more | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_title | null | null | null | dovish |
Although the recent development of inflation has been roughly as expected, there is a risk that lower oil prices will dampen inflation expectations, and thus inflation, more than is assumed in the forecast. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
To this can be added the increased uncertainty about developments abroad and on the financial markets. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In order to support the upturn in underlying inflation so that CPIF inflation approaches 2 per cent and to ensure that long-term inflation expectations are compatible with the inflation target, a more expansionary monetary policy is needed. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | dovish |
The Executive Board of the Riksbank has therefore decided to cut the repo rate by 0.1 percentage points to −0.10 per cent (see Figure 1:7). | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | dovish |
In addition, the repo-rate path has been adjusted downwards somewhat. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
At the same time, interest rates for fine-tuning transactions will be restored to the repo rate +/−0.1 percentage points. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | dovish |
The Executive Board has also decided to purchase government bonds to an amount of SEK 10 billion with a maturity of up to 5 years. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | dovish |
If this proves insufficient to get inflation to rise towards the target, the Riksbank can quickly make monetary policy even more expansionary, even between the ordinary monetary policy meetings (see the article "The Riksbank’s complementary monetary policy measures"). | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | dovish |
The measures taken and the readiness to do more underline the Riksbank's aim to safeguard the role of the inflation target as a nominal anchor for price setting and wage formation. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Many uncertain factors affecting the financial markets | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_title | null | null | null | neutral |
All in all, growth in the euro area is expected to be 1.2 per cent in 2015 and to gradually rise to 2.0 per cent in 2017 (see Figure 1:8). | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
This represents a marginal upward revision for 2015 compared with the assessment in December. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The figure for inflation in 2015 has been significantly revised downwards as a result of the fall in oil prices, and inflation is expected to be negative for most of the year (see Figure 1:9). | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Inflation will then increase gradually to over 1 per cent in 2016 when the negative effect of the fall in energy prices disappears. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
As the economy strengthens and wages increase more rapidly, inflation is also expected to rise. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Higher import prices as a result of the weaker euro will also contribute to an upturn in inflation, which is expected to approach 1.8 per cent at the start of 2018. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Oil exporters hit by the fall in oil prices | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
The substantial weakening of the rouble and higher food prices have driven up inflation to higher levels. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Import prices are rising and this will restrict domestic consumption at the same time as the sanctions have already had severe negative effects on corporate confidence and investment. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The higher interest rates and the ongoing substantial capital outflows will also have a negative impact on the economy. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Although the assessment is that the downturn in Russia will not have any significant direct effects on the Swedish economy, Sweden may be indirectly affected via other countries that trade extensively with Russia, such as Finland and Germany. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Weak krona will strengthen going forward | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_title | null | null | null | positive |
The Swedish krona has weakened since the Monetary Policy Update in December, in both nominal and real terms. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The krona has not been at these weak levels since 2010 (see Figure 1:13). | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
It is primarily against the US dollar, sterling and the Swiss franc that the krona has weakened. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Several other currencies have also weakened against the dollar in recent months. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The assessment is that the dollar will remain strong in the quarters ahead and that this will contribute to the krona remaining at weaker levels in trade-weighted terms compared with the forecast in December. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
However, the krona will gradually strengthen during the forecast period in both real and nominal terms. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The real exchange rate is assessed to be weaker than its long-term level at present due to underlying factors, such as Sweden's growth potential in relation to the rest of the world. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
However, there is considerable uncertainty concerning the development of the krona, not least given the ECB's announced asset-purchase programme, which will begin in March. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Economic activity in Sweden continues to improve | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_title | null | null | null | positive |
GDP growth is benefiting from the fall in oil prices, the weakening of the krona over the last 12 months and the very low repo rate. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
At the same time, however, the global recovery is marginally weaker, which is dampening GDP growth. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
All in all, the forecast is largely unchanged in relation to the forecast in December. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Domestic demand is still important. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The assessment is that the weak consumption growth in the third quarter of 2014 was temporary and that consumption will grow more rapidly going forward. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
In 2016 and 2017, gradually increasing international demand is expected to lead to a more rapid increase in exports and corporate investment and to contribute to growth to a greater extent. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The Riksbank's overall assessment is that growth is normal at present. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
GDP will grow by 2.7 per cent this year and then by 3.3 per cent in 2016 and 2.2 per cent in 2017 (see Figure 1:14). | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Gradual recovery in export demand | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_title | null | null | null | positive |
The development of Swedish exports has been weak in recent years. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
This is mainly because economic development has been weak on many important export markets. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
However, sentiment in the manufacturing industry is positive and in the latest Business Tendency Survey the confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry increased and is above an historical average. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
This will be supported by the weakening of the krona over the last 12 months. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The assessment is that imports grew faster than exports in 2014, which means that net exports provided a negative contribution to growth. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
As exports recover, the contribution to growth from foreign trade is expected to average approximately zero in the years ahead. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Investment growth will increase in the years ahead | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_title | null | null | null | positive |
Housing investment is estimated to have increased by almost 20 per cent in 2014. | 12/02/2015 | Feb-15 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
End of preview. Expand
in Dataset Viewer.
README.md exists but content is empty.
Use the Edit dataset card button to edit it.
- Downloads last month
- 0