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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the43rd National Disability Prevention and Rehabilitation Week, 18 July 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Empowerment of persons with disabilities through digital financial inclusion Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the43rd National Disability Prevention and Rehabilitation Week, 18 July 2021. * * * Good day to everyone. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is pleased to join the celebration of the 43rd National Disability Prevention and Rehabilitation Week. This year’s theme of “Kalusugan at Kaunlaran ng Pilipinong May Kapansanan, Isulong sa Gitna ng Pandemya” is timely and very much aligned with the thrust of the BSP. The COVID-19 pandemic, while sparing none, has worsened difficulties for our most vulnerable and overlooked segments. Socioeconomic gaps, including access to vital services, have widened. Empowerment could thus not be a greater imperative. This is why we at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas believe that empowering our kababayan, especially in these extraordinary times, can lead to a better financial future and propel us to post-pandemic recovery and growth. The empowerment of the vulnerable sectors has always been an underlying objective of the BSP’s efforts. For this reason, we are continuously stepping up our financial inclusion efforts to ensure financial services are within easy reach for all Filipinos, including Persons with Disability. With access to a wide range of financial services, Filipinos can better manage their finances, seize income opportunities, and build financial resilience. Financial inclusion therefore empowers individuals to improve not only their welfare, but also that of their family and community. The need for financial inclusion has been highlighted by the pandemic as people needed to transact digitally. People who had a transaction account were able to safely and conveniently conduct financial transactions through their mobile devices at the comforts of their home. This crucial capability for digital transactions should be within reach by every Filipino in the new, and increasingly digital, economy. The BSP has therefore committed that by 2023, at least 70% of adult Filipinos own and use a formal account, and at least 50% of retail payment transactions are performed digitally. We are optimistic of achieving these targets, even earlier than planned. Over the years, the BSP has laid down the foundation for financial inclusion through our regulations and initiatives to build the inclusive digital finance ecosystem. With the pandemic, financial inclusion has been recognized further as an urgent national development agenda, rightly necessitating a whole-of-nation approach. The Philippine Statistics Authority has been ramping up its implementation of the Philippine National ID System or PhilSys which will be a gamechanger for financial inclusion addressing, long-standing barriers to account ownership in the informal and low-income sector. Meanwhile, on March 10 this year, President Rodrigo Roa Duterte signed the Executive Order No. 127 as a policy reform to expand the satellite broadband market to speedily connect 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches underserved rural communities. This will enable rural communities to join the digital economy and partake of its benefits. Sa pamamagitan ng PhilSys at pagpapalaganap ng mobile at internet access sa ating bansa, masmarami pang Pilipino ang mahihikayat na gumamit ng digital financial services. Kasama rito ang ating mga kababayan na PWD. We laud the National Council on Disability Affairs and other stakeholders for upholding and protecting the rights of the PWD sector. Rest assured that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is committed to continuously engage the sector so we can better respond to your needs. Naririnig po namin kayo. In July 2020, we introduced enhanced tactile marks in our banknotes to aid the elderly and visually impaired in identifying denominations easier. The BSP is also now exploring the addition of braille functionality to our banknotes, which aims to benefit as many as 2.5 million visually impaired Filipinos. We recognize that many members of the PW D are highly vulnerable to and experienced unfair practices. We are reminding banks and other BSP-supervised financial institutions to enforce non-discrimination policies and promote access to welfare-enhancing financial services of our PWD sector. We hope this webinar will be informative and serve as a platform for deeper engagement to promote the financial welfare and empowerment of our country’s PWD sector. Sama-sama nating isulong ang kaunlaran ng Pilipinong may kapansanan sa gitna at lampas ng pandemya. Maraming salamat po. 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the MSME (Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises) Day "Negosyo Bounce Back", 18 July 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSME) Message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the MSME (Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises) Day “Negosyo Bounce Back”, 18 July 2021. * * * A pleasant morning to all the speakers and participants of today’s webinar entitled “MSME Day: Negosyo Bounce Back”. Thank you Investree Philippines for this initiative, which aims to inspire and equip our entrepreneurs towards business recovery and growth through innovative financing solutions. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has always supported programs that will steer the country’s economy towards a strong and sustainable path to recovery. As more vaccines arrive, and as a greater share of the population gets vaccinated, we move closer towards a new economy that is ‘better, safer, and more technologically ready'. MSMEs in the New Economy MSMEs are agile to adapt their business ventures to this new economy. They have taken advantage of the opportunities brought about by digitalization, such as e-commerce and digital payments. In fact, data from 1st quarter of 2021 show the combined volume of electronic fund transfers through PESONet and InstaPay hit 107 million transactions with total value of P1.5 trillion. Volume grew by 365% and value by 171% compared to the same period in 2020. This trend may be primarily driven by the desire to serve and retain their client-base, but it has also enabled MSMEs to expand their market. Digital payment streams can also broaden MSMEs’ access to finance. Digital records of sales and payment transactions can be used in assessing the creditworthiness of a business which will unlock access to other welfare-enhancing financial services such as digital credit, insurance, and investment, among others. BSP’s Priority Initiatives for MSMEs The BSP has introduced a package of regulatory relief and incentive measures to ensure that banks would continue to lend to the MSME sector amid the pandemic. The BSP is also aggressively undertaking various initiatives that will provide lasting benefits for MSMEs even after the pandemic. Our Credit Risk Database (CRD) project in partnership with the Government of Japan aims to improve access to finance for SMEs by lessening banks’ dependence on collateral during credit evaluation. Instead of collateral, the CRD’s risk-based lending approach uses credit scoring models to assess the capacity of SMEs to repay their loans. We continue to work on the Credit Surety Fund (CSF) program, alongside the Cooperative Development Authority. As a credit enhancement scheme, the CSF provides security for loans of MSMEs by way of a surety cover. With support from the various banking industry associations and the Department of Trade and 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches Industry, the BSP will introduce the adoption of a standard business loan application form which will make the loan application documents of banks simple and borrower-friendly. To better help us better understand the needs and challenges faced by the MSME sector, the BSP is supporting the Asian Development Bank in conducting a national MSME Survey. This survey will generate new insights and more granular data on MSME access to finance. We are also supporting the adoption of innovative financing schemes such as the Agriculture Value Chain Financing and Supply Chain Financing to enhance the bankability of agri-businesses and MSMEs and to increase the capacity of financial institutions in serving these underserved market segments. Digital Financial Inclusion of MSMEs The BSP has launched initiatives that will fast track the digital transformation of the financial ecosystem. For instance, the establishment of digital banks is envisioned to bring about greater efficiency and facilitate virtual reach of financial products and services among the unbanked, including MSMEs. Last April we extended the payments use case of the QR Ph to include person-to-merchant or P2M. With the use of QR technology, small merchants are presented with a simpler and more affordable payment facility as compared to costly point of sale terminals. We are also looking forward to the full implementation of our digital ID – the Philippine ID System or Philsys. More than 11 million Filipinos have completed the registration of their demographic and biometric data. PhilSys will address the lack of identity document which is an oft-cited barrier to account opening. Beyond seamless digital onboarding, PhilSys can facilitate greater innovation in digital financial services. Innovation and Partnerships Towards Inclusive MSME Financing All these developments sound promising. But the BSP and the government cannot solve the MSME challenges alone. We need the support of all relevant players, including industry innovators, to help bridge the financing gap that has long hampered the growth of MSMEs. We welcome innovative solutions that leverage on data and digital technologies in providing wider financing options and tailored financial products to our MSMEs. Closing Let us continue to work together in building an ecosystem where MSMEs can flourish and reach their full potential. Thank you and have a good morning! 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Welcome remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the Asia School of Business Online Course for the Financial Stability Coordination Council, 18 July 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Welcome remarks - Asia School of Business Online Course for the Financial Stability Coordination Council Welcome remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the Asia School of Business Online Course for the Financial Stability Coordination Council, 18 July 2021. * * * Good morning to everyone and welcome to the first course structured by the Asia School of Business for the Financial Stability Coordination Council. I’m very pleased to welcome a dear friend of the BSP, former Negara Malaysia Governor DR. ZETI AKHTAR AZIS who now co-chairs the ASB. Let me also extend my warm greetings to MR. CHARLES FINE, President and Dean of ASB, DR. TRIW IT ARIYATHUGUN, Assistant Professor of Economics, DR. HANS GENBERG, Professor of Economics and Senior Director of Banking and Finance Program, and of course to my old friend who needs no introduction, DR. ELI REMOLONA, the Director of Central Banking at ASB. The Financial Stability Coordination Council has been actively looking at secondary market asset prices for signs about the market and their potential systemic risk concern. We have had active discussions about our yield curve and its incentive structure as market condition evolve, both in the Philippines and in established offshore markets. As part of our intent to better survey risk behaviors, we have been exploring various opportunities for learning, to enhance the capacity of our FSCC colleagues, and to address our mandate. The bar of accountability on that mandate has been raised, with the President signing Executive Order No. 144. With the legal authority to now issue guidelines and regulations related to managing systemic risks, it is important more than ever for the FSCC to see what market players see, and for us to influence risk behaviors in ways that develop markets and build resilience. This is why this course is important, particularly at this critical time. We hear of the divergent paths of recovery from Covid-19 and how movements in Advanced Economies are affecting Emerging Economies and Developing Economies. No matter how you work on the analysis, this divergence should be evident in market prices, alongside portfolio flows and reflows. The global economy is patently interconnected through the pipeline of bond and credit markets. While economists are comfortable with comparative advantage on the trade side, risk behaviors in financial markets are much more fluid, and respond more quickly to changing incentives. Those incentives, again, are all about visible prices in the open market and government securities provide the immediate natural platform. In this interconnected world, partnerships are critical. I am excited for the FSCC to build this partnership with the ASB. We leverage this market of experience and ideas from the best. Of particular interest to me is that ASB itself is a partnership that brings together the best talents and the broadest experience from different parts of the world. This puts the FSCC in an envious position. We are partnering with the best to better ourselves so that we too can, one day soon, be the best at what we do. This is not about status. It is about making FSCC an engine of improving the welfare of the 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches Filipino public. This is the vision of the FSCC for why managing systemic risks and the pursuit of financial stability matter. Let me wish all the participants an enjoyable 10 hours of learning. Eli has not shared with me the answer key to his questions. But knowing him for so long, I assure our FSCC colleagues that you’re learning from the best in the field. Finally, let me thank those who patiently set up the logistics for getting this course off the ground. To LILY W ONG of ASB, thank you for your patience. To our FSCC Secretariat, I look forward to seeing the fruits of this course in your next Systemic Risk Review. Thank you Governor ZETI, CHARLES, HANS, ELI AND TRIW IT. I welcomed everybody to this FIRST collaboration because I do hope to benefit from all succeeding partnerships between ASB and FSCC. Thank you and good morning to all. 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Welcome message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), during the BSP webinar on "The age of digital banking", 20 July 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: The age of digital banking Welcome message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), during the BSP webinar on "The age of digital banking", 20 July 2021. * * * A pleasant day to everyone! I welcome all of you to this timely and aptly titled webinar “The Age of Digital Banking”. Indeed, all aspects of our lives are advancing at such a rapid pace and I’m proud to say that banking or the broader digital financial industry is easily keeping in step. As such, this event is an excellent opportunity to understand, work together, and see the digital revolution from different lenses. And we are fortunate to have distinguished industry leaders and subject matter experts who will share with us their thoughts on the acceleration of digital financial services. But first, allow me to share with you the country’s digital payments landscape based on the 2019 update and 2020 preview on Philippine digital payments conducted by the Better Than Cash Alliance or “BTCA” in partnership with the BSP. In terms of the total volume of payments in the country, 17 percent was made digitally in the first half of 2020, as compared with 10 percent in 2018. Consumer payments make up 78 percent of the 4.6 billion monthly payments, followed by corporate payments at 21 percent. Consistent with the previous diagnostics, the government continues to lead the way in digitization with some 87 percent or P319 billion equivalent of payments by the government (G2X) already in digital form, up from 64 percent in 2018. The same is followed by payments made by people (P2X) and businesses (B2X) at 35 percent and 15 percent, respectively. It is also noteworthy that the volume of digital merchant payments significantly grew by 66 percent since 2018. Essentially, this increase pushed the strong upward trend in the overall volume of merchant payments driven by electronic fund transfers and the heightened usage of prepaid cards. Fully aware of the potential of the Philippine market, the BSP launched in 2020 the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap. The roadmap is a blueprint for the development of an efficient, inclusive, safe and secure digital payments ecosystem that supports the diverse needs and capabilities of individuals and firms alike. In this journey, two strategic outcomes are emphasized. First is the goal to convert at least 50 percent of the total volume of retail payments into digital form. And second is the availability of varied innovative and responsive digital financial products and services. In parallel, the roadmap also aims to onboard at least 70 percent of Filipino adults to the financial system through the ownership and use of a transaction account. 1/4 BIS central bankers' speeches Over time, the increased usage of transaction accounts will enable Filipinos to build financial profiles that further unlock access to more complex financial services. According to a World Bank article entitled “Digital Financial Services” published in April 2020, access to affordable financial services is critical for poverty reduction and economic growth. Countries with deeper, more developed financial systems enjoy higher economic growth and larger reductions in poverty and income inequality. Fintech-enabled Digital Financial Services (DFS), have the potential to lower costs, increase speed, security and transparency and allow for more tailored financial services that serve the poor. DFS also enable a fast and secure way for governments to reach vulnerable people with social transfers and other forms of financial assistance, especially during times when transportation and movement around the country are unsafe or restricted. With the issuance of Digital Banking Framework, the Philippines is a step closer to reaching its strategic objective. From our end, the BSP has long recognized the role of digital platforms in affording greater efficiency in the delivery of financial products and services. With the issuance of Digital Banking Framework, the Philippines is a step closer to reaching its strategic objective. From our end, the BSP has long recognized the role of digital platforms in affording greater efficiency in the delivery of financial products and services. We also see the recent issuance of the digital banking framework as an integral building block in promoting an enabling regulatory environment that fosters responsible innovation, promotes cyber resilience and contributes towards advancing the digitalization of the financial sector. It is for this reason that a specific classification for digital banks has been defined. Due to their digital-centric business model, the operation of these banks should be underpinned by sound digital governance, robust, secure and resilient technology infrastructure, and effective data management strategy and practices. This is balanced with the recognition that digital banks are subjected to the same set of risks and threats with elevated risks to IT, cyber security, and AML risks. Therefore, the BSP’s existing standards on corporate governance, risk management, compliance, internal control and audit, and reporting governance, among others, shall apply. This digital banking framework is particularly relevant as billions of people affected by the COVID19 pandemic are driving a “historic and dramatic shift in consumer behavior” – according to the latest research from PricewaterhouseCoopers or PwC. The consulting and accounting firm’s June 2021 Global Consumer Insights Pulse Survey also reported a strong shift to online shopping as people were first confined by lockdowns, and continued to work-from-home. Other significant finding from the report that may change the business models of companies is that consumers do not think they’ll go back to their old ways of shopping once the pandemic is over. In the Philippines, the study conducted by Visa also showed that around 70 percent of Filipinos who used digital payment channels during the lockdown will likely continue to do so. Since the release of the regulatory framework for digital banks in December 2020, a number of 2/4 BIS central bankers' speeches proponents have expressed interest and actual intent to apply for a digital banking license in the country. As of June 2021, the Monetary Board (MB) has approved the applications of four (4) banks. The MB approval refers to the first of the three-stage licensing framework of the BSP on the establishment of banks. On March 25, 2021, the MB approved the first application which is from the Overseas Filipino Bank (OFBank) seeking to convert its banking license from a thrift bank to a digital bank. On June 3, 2021, the MB approved the applications of (1) Tonik Digital Bank, Inc., for conversion of its rural banking license to a digital bank license, and (2) UNObank, Inc. for the establishment of a new digital bank. Then on July 15, 2021, the MB approved the application of Union Digital Bank, a wholly own subsidiary of UBP. With the framework’s promising benefits, we must also be cognizant of its attendant challenges and risks. Data privacy concerns, money laundering, and electronic frauds are among the issues that can undermine the confidence in this policy initiative. We therefore expect that the key stakeholders particularly the financial institutions, to adopt adequate measures and controls to manage such risks. Foremost of which is the conduct of an effective information campaign to ensure that consumers are aware of the risks and how they can perform their transactions securely. Consumers must also be aware of the available mechanisms that can promote consumer protection. On the other end of spectrum, other government agencies are also expected to collaborate and address the digital divide. It entails ensuring access to IT infrastructure by people from all walks of life to achieve inclusivity. With the framework’s promising benefits, we must also be cognizant of its attendant challenges and risks. Data privacy concerns, money laundering, and electronic frauds are among the issues that can undermine the confidence in this policy initiative. We therefore expect that the key stakeholders particularly the financial institutions, to adopt adequate measures and controls to manage such risks. Foremost of which is the conduct of an effective information campaign to ensure that consumers are aware of the risks and how they can perform their transactions securely. Consumers must also be aware of the available mechanisms that can promote consumer protection. On the other end of spectrum, other government agencies are also expected to collaborate and address the digital divide. It entails ensuring access to IT infrastructure by people from all walks of life to achieve 3/4 BIS central bankers' speeches inclusivity. We are living in exciting times and we each have a role to play. Let this initiative be just one of many more opportunities for us to work together to truly provide better ways of serving our constituents whenever they require and wherever they are. Be at the comforts of their homes, in the office, in digital devices, or who knows tomorrow even from outer space! Thank you and a pleasant day to all of you. 4/4 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Keynote message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), during the during the ECCP (European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines) AI+ Financial Services Future of Fintech, 21 July 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Keynote message - ECCP AI+ Financial Services Future of Fintech Keynote message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), during the during the ECCP (European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines) AI+ Financial Services Future of Fintech, 21 July 2021. * * * Friends and colleagues from the European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines and Fairs and More, Inc., esteemed guest speakers, ladies and gentlemen, a pleasant afternoon to all. I’m glad to be a part of the AI+ Forum Series wherein we hope to have more strategic discussions about financial technology and how the financial services industry can leverage on technological advancements such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics, among others, in designing and providing more customer-centric financial products and services. In just the last ten (10) years, we’ve all witnessed how technology has dramatically advanced and elevated our day-to-day living. From augmented reality games to self-driving cars; from voicecontrolled home devices to life-saving medicines; from office productivity tools to space exploration journeys; the possibilities are indeed limitless. Personally, I was astonished to recently learn about deepfakes. Such advances in artificial intelligence are both exceptional and admittedly, disturbing at the same time. After the initial disbelief and amazement wears off, you soon realize how destructive this technology might be if used for ill purposes. Perhaps this is the reason why there is still some resistance in fully embracing technology when it comes to providing financial services, particularly in banking. Because banking, at its very core, is built on trust between the financial institution and its customers. Trust is not built overnight, but is diligently earned over a period of time. Despite the apprehensions, we cannot fully dismiss the potentials that financial technology has to offer, especially in bridging the financial inclusion gap. What good is it to have the perfect financial system if only a handful in society gets to benefit from it? Thus, we need to set aside our fears and prejudices and transform existing challenges to life-changing opportunities by striking the right balance between innovation and regulation. The BSP has fervently sought to capitalize on such development. Our goal has always been to enable a conducive environment for both incumbent banks and Fintechs to harness their full potential with regard to their journey to innovation. This has also paved the way for greater financial inclusion among Filipinos through the build-up of an inclusive ecosystem, the creation of compelling use cases, and fostering of financial literacy and trust in the financial system through consumer protection. We are confident that digital innovation can co-exist alongside BSP’s key mandates of maintaining monetary, financial stability and the efficiency and safety of payments and settlements systems. Likewise, the BSP will continue to support financial products and services that are suitably designed, priced, and tailored to diverse market segments, including the unbanked and 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches underserved markets, through pioneering delivery channels. While the BSP will continue to champion initiatives promoting responsible innovation in the delivery of financial products and services, all stakeholders must join the journey of transformation into a digital economy that is robust, secure, and resilient that’s accessible to all. Digital is no longer a matter of convenience, but it has, in fact, become a matter of necessity. And the current pandemic has clearly emphasized the need to democratize access to financial services and address exclusion, benefiting those most hit by the pandemic’s effects to the economy. Ultimately, my hope is that the BSP’s enabling regulatory environment would continue to foster a healthy cooperative competition or “coo-petition” among Fintechs and traditional banks. When the advantages of traditional banks, with their market size and operational scale, are coupled with Fintechs’ organizational agility and technical know-how, the resulting synergies could substantially improve the delivery of financial services to all Filipinos, especially the underserved. Indeed, fintech can be a massive driver of our financial inclusion agenda. And so I hope you have you all here as a partner in this pursuit. Together, let’s bring financial services closer to the Filipino people. Thank you and I hope that all of us remain healthy and well during these trying times. 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the 2021 BSP Outstanding Stakeholders' Appreciation Ceremony, 29 July 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: 2021 BSP Outstanding Stakeholders' Appreciation Ceremony Message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the 2021 BSP Outstanding Stakeholders' Appreciation Ceremony, 29 July 2021. * * * Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the 2021 Outstanding BSP Stakeholders Appreciation Ceremony. Our theme, “Pagpupugay at Pagkilala: Sa Gitna ng Hamon ng Pandemya,” sums up what we are about to do today—give due recognition to you, our partners, who have gone beyond the call of duty in the name of service at the height of the global health crisis. It has been more than a year since the pandemic began, and, with cautious optimism, we can say that the worst is over. Though our economy received big blows because of the pandemic, we started to see green shoots of recovery as early as the third quarter of last year. This is because of the whole-ofnation approach that we, which includes each of you, employed. Before the pandemic, we are in what we can call as a position of strength, with ample fiscal and monetary buffer that the country used to respond to the crisis. Amid the pandemic, we in the BSP opened our toolkit. We cut policy rate to a historic low of two percent and reduced the reserve requirement to 12 percent—all these to boost market confidence and free up more funds for lending to businesses and households. Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. With legal safeguards in place, we extended lifeline support to the national government in the form of provisional advances worth P540 billion to augment its resources for COVID-related spending. In sum, the BSP injected P2.2 trillion into the financial system, equivalent to 12.3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product for 2020 as of July 21, 2021. At the same time, we implemented various time-bound regulatory relief measures to enable banks and their clients manage the impact of the pandemic on their finances. These measures range from grace periods for loan payments to capping of interest rates on credit card usage, among others. As we gear up toward recovery, we are also building the foundation of the “New Economy” through digitalization and financial inclusion. Why finance digitalization? Financial technology makes transactions easier and faster, which in turn, speeds up income. It also makes financial products and services accessible to a greater number of people, which in turn, enhances financial inclusion. In October last year, the BSP launched the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap. Our goal is to shift from a cash-heavy to a cash-light society, where at least half of financial transactions are done digitally. By 2023, our other goal is that at least 70 percent of the adult population should have financial accounts. 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches It is worth noting that in the wake of the pandemic, financial transactions coursed through digital platforms InstaPay and PesoNet rose dramatically by 155.4 percent and 22 percent, respectively, in May 2021 as compared to the same period in 2020. Last year, more than eight million electronic money accounts were created. We expect more as the BSP approves the license applications of incoming industry players. The establishment of digital banks will bring about greater efficiency and extend the reach of financial products and services among the unbanked, including MSMEs. We have also taken steps to allow for more extensive use of QR codes for payments. Last April, we extended the payments use case of the QR Ph to include person-to-merchants or P2M. Compared with using point-of-sales terminals, QR technology presents small merchants with a simpler and more affordable payment facility. The BSP also supports the Philippine ID System or PhilSys because this will address the lack of identity documents which is among the most common barriers to account opening. To help us spread the gospel of financial inclusion and digitalization, we recently partnered with our youth, and hopefully, made enthusiastic ambassadors of them. We held our first-ever BSP Youth Summit last July 9 with the theme, “Ibangon natin ang ekonomiya, i-digital mo na!” More than 38,000 registered for this livestream event, which garnered more than 30,000 views on Facebook as of July 21. Eleven youth organizations signed statements of support for our digitalization and financial inclusion agenda. This makes me hopeful that our youth—like you, our dear stakeholders—are strong partners in bringing our services closer to the Filipino people. As we make our way toward the New Economy, we should be able to transform old ways into sustainable, green ones. So, we start within our own backyard. The BSP launched its internal Sustainable Central Banking program, which fosters environmentally responsible and sustainable policies and work practices within the BSP. We have started instilling environmentally sound habits among ourselves by prohibiting singleuse plastics in our premises. We also issued the Sustainable Finance Framework which forms the first phase of our enabling regulations on sustainability. For all these great initiatives to flourish, we need your support. You have been our partners in statistical undertakings, information requirements, advocacy programs, and various initiatives for many years. You never left us even during the most trying times. Now, we enjoin you to help us prepare for the New Economy by promoting digitalization, financial inclusion, and sustainability. Together, we can B-S-P — Build a Stronger Philippines. Today, we celebrate; and tomorrow, we will do great things again. On behalf of the BSP, let me extend our gratitude to all our outstanding partners who have been our anchors and pillars throughout this journey. Congratulations at mabuhay tayong lahat! 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 1st General Membership Meeting of BAIPHIL (Bankers Institute of the Philippines) "BAIPHIL@80: Building Resilience through Strong Governance", 17 August 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Strengthening banking sector resilience through good governance Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 1st General Membership Meeting of BAIPHIL (Bankers Institute of the Philippines) “BAIPHIL@80: Building Resilience through Strong Governance”, 17 August 2021. * * * To the officers and members of the Bankers Institute of the Philippines, Inc. (BAIPHIL) under the leadership of BAIPHIL President Romel D. Meniado, colleagues from the banking industry, ladies and gentlemen, good morning! First of all, thank you for inviting the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to be part of the 1st General Membership Meeting of BAIPHIL. Good governance has underpinned BAIPHIL’s leadership through the years. It is for this reason that we are celebrating 80 years of excellence in the delivery of your mandate of continuing education, information sharing and research. While the BSP wears many hats, today I will focus on the important role of the BSP as regulator and supervisor in the financial industry. I will begin by sharing some highlights on the macro economy and the banking system, and then move on to the results of the Banking Sector Outlook Survey (BSOS). This will be followed by the KEY strategic supervisory thrusts of the Bangko Sentral which are: (1) strengthening risk governance; (2) promoting responsible and responsive innovation; and (3) advancing the sustainability agenda in the financial system. I will discuss our continuing commitment and support to financial sector reform through the passage of key legislations. I’ll close by stating what we expect from BAIPHIL. Let me begin with good news. Based on the recent Philippine Statistics Authority’s data, the country is officially out of the pandemic-induced recession. The economy grew by 11.8 percent in the second quarter of 2021. Likewise, inflation rate decelerated in July 2021 to 4.0 percent. This is the first time this year that the inflation rate returned within the 2-4 percent target band. As of end-July 2021, the country’s gross international reserves stood at USD106.6 billion. Once again, remittances coming from overseas Filipino workers continues to provide strong support to the economy as money transfers coursed through banks grew by 13.1 percent to USD2.6 billion in June 2021 from a 2.4 billion in May 2021. Meanwhile, unemployment remained unchanged, at 7.7 percent in June 2021. While we have taken a step back because of the recent implementation of ECQ in response to the more transmissible Delta variant, I am confident that we will be able to get back on track with the adoption of a whole-of-nation approach in addressing the challenges brought about by this pandemic. What is key, however, is our vaccination rollout. Let’s now look at the Philippine banking system. Banks’ total resources continued to expand, albeit at a much slower pace relative to pre-pandemic period. Year-on-year growth of banking system assets was posted at 6.4 percent as of end-June 2021. 1/6 BIS central bankers' speeches The expansion was mainly funded through deposit generation. Deposits grew by 7.6 percent year-on-year to P15.3 trillion as of end-June 2021. These deposits were mostly peso-denominated and sourced from domestic households and enterprises. These developments are testament to the public’s continued trust and confidence in the banking system. Gross total loan portfolio (TLP) declined year-on-year by 0.4 percent to P10.8 trillion as of endJune 2021. This is both a supply and demand issue as banks continue to be risk averse while businesses defer their expansion plans given the uncertainty in the economic environment. Nonetheless, banks have continued to restructure and grant new loans to the micro, small and medium enterprises or MSMEs. As of the reserve week ending 29 July 2021, loans to MSMEs that were utilized as alternative compliance with the BSP’s reserve requirements amounted to P188.7 billion, up from the P8.7 billion recorded as of end-April 2020. Overall, loan quality remains manageable. Gross non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rose to 4.5 percent as of end-June 2021, but this was accompanied by a high NPL coverage ratio of 82.4 percent as of the same period. The recent passage of the Financial Institutions Strategic Transfer (FIST) Act provides banks with a stand-by facility to offload their non-performing assets in case these post a sharp increase. Banks remained well-capitalized. As of end-March 2021, the capital adequacy ratios of the universal and commercial bank industry stood at 16.8 percent and 17.4 percent on solo and consolidated bases, respectively, from the previous year’s 15.3 percent and 15.8 percent. Moreover, banks maintained sufficient buffers to meet liquidity and funding requirements. Liquidity of banks was ample as the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) of the UKB industry reached 198.0 percent as of end-May 2021 on solo basis, almost double the regulatory minimum of 100 percent. Similarly, as of end-May 2021, UKBs’ net stable funding ratio (NSFR) stood at 143.6 percent on solo basis, well-above the BSP regulatory threshold of 100 percent. This indicates availability of more stable funding to serve bank customers in the medium term. For smaller banks, the minimum liquidity ratios (MLRs) of stand-alone thrift banks (TBs), rural and cooperative banks (RCBs) surpassed the 20 percent minimum as of end-March 2021 data. We owe the sustained safety and soundness and continued resilience of the banking system on the reforms implemented both by the BSP and the banking industry over the years. Unsurprisingly, the banking industry’s leaders remain optimistic of banking system prospects in the next two years. Highlights of the results of the Banking Sector Outlook Survey (BSOS) for the First Semester of 2021 reveal the following: First, banks continue to view the Philippine banking system as stable with prospects of double-digit growth in assets, loans, investments, deposits and net income. Second, all banks continue to expect a downgrade in the quality of their loans with a nonperforming loan (NPL) to total loan ratio of above 5 percent. In particular, Universal/Commercial banks (UKBs) estimate their NPL to settle between 3.0 percent and 6.5 percent. More banks also intend to report higher NPL coverage ratio at more than 50.0 2/6 BIS central bankers' speeches percent to 100.0 percent. Third, banks will continue to report tight net interest margin (NIM) at 1.5 percent to 3.0 percent. Respondents expect return on equity of 2.0 percent to 5.0 percent. Fourth, asset quality and credit risk emerged as the top-most risk to the banks’ operations while macroeconomic and operational risks are the risks common to most of the respondent banks. Fifth, there is a distinct shift in organizational focus towards sustainable financing. More respondent banks view such mode of financing as highly important. Finally, banks intend to maintain capital and liquidity buffers at levels higher than domestic and global standards to promote institutional stability. The BSP will continue to push for major reforms to ensure the soundness, stability, resilience and inclusivity of the banking system amid the ongoing health crisis. The BSP’s strategic regulatory and supervisory thrusts focus on three key areas, namely: strengthening risk governance; (2) promoting responsible and responsive innovation; and advancing the sustainability agenda in the financial system. The pandemic triggered a strategic review of business models and business priorities due to the changing business landscape. This highlights the importance of having strong risk governance. The BSP will continue to raise the bar in managing risk to ensure that the financial industry remains resilient to threats to financial stability. In this respect, we expect three things from banks: 1. We expect banks to build buffers and adopt robust stress testing methodologies so that they will be able to timely identify emerging risks, anticipate the occurrence of new risk triggers and prepare for their occurrence. 2. We expect banks to adopt more resilient systems to fend off the increase in cyber threat actors as the industry becomes largely digitalized. 3. Finally, we also expect banks to continuously adhere to the tenets of good governance and protect the interest of the public even with the reduced face to face interaction with their clients. Recent issuances of the Bangko Sentral are all directed toward this end. For instance, the BSP recognizes that building and sustaining a good reputation is a critical element in promoting a bank’s safety and soundness. Since reputational risk is inextricably linked to other risk exposures such as credit, market, liquidity, and operational risks, it can be triggered by any risk such as for instance an unfavorable feedback from a client. Circular No. 1114 or the guidelines on reputational risk management recognizes that everyone in the organization has a role to play in the management of reputational risk. Said guidelines highlight the importance of shared accountability and has set out the roles and responsibilities of the board of directors and officers, consistent with the principle that the tone of good governance should come from the top. In the same vein, the BSP issued Circular No. 1112 requiring banks to observe due diligence in the recruitment of their personnel. The “Know your employee” rule will not only improve the operational risk managements of banks but also foster confidence in the banking system. On another note, I would like to take this opportunity to remind everyone that while the delivery platforms for products and financial services may have changed, the banking industry is exposed 3/6 BIS central bankers' speeches to the same risks credit, liquidity, market, and operational, among others. As such, as we put more resources on information technology systems and infrastructure. An important part of risk governance is having the effective policies, practice, and systems in place to combat money laundering and terrorist and proliferation financing. Please allow me to briefly discuss the Philippine’s recent inclusion the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) included Philippines in its latest “grey list” of countries, which means that the Philippines will be under increased monitoring as we prove our progress against money-laundering and terrorist financing. If we as a nation fail to institute the recommended measures, this may potentially increase the cost of doing business with Filipinos, as regulators and financial institutions add another layer of scrutiny on our transactions. While we have not yet received any report on changes in the cost of transactions, we continue to engage different stakeholders to inform them of the actions taken by the country to address the remaining issues identified in the Mutual Evaluation Report. Indeed, the Philippines swiftly acted on the concerns raised in the report and took a whole of government approach in addressing the issues. We have completed our key commitments and continue to do so in the midst of our fight against the ill effects of the pandemic. On our part, the BSP remains steadfast and committed to implement initiatives aimed at further strengthening banking system’s framework and defenses against money laundering, terrorist financing and proliferation financing risks. We will continue with our strategic initiatives to promote awareness and enhance the capabilities of our supervised financial institutions against these risks. Moving on, the BSP believes that digitalization and financial inclusion are mutually reinforcing goals. It is in this light that the BSP is espousing an enabling environment to promote responsible and responsive innovation while at the same time ensuring that attendant risks are prudently managed. Promoting the growth of the digital financial ecosystem is a win-win proposition for the industry and the public. On one hand, digitalization will allow financial institutions to broaden their client base, tap other revenue sources, and improve operational efficiency. On the other hand, financial consumers will benefit in terms of convenience in completing transactions, lower costs, and access to specialized financial products and services. These are the main drivers that led to the development of the BSP’s three-year Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap. The Roadmap aims to shift at least 50 percent of total retail payment transactions to digital, and to have 70 percent of adult Filipinos with transaction accounts by year 2023. These goals are anchored on the implementation of key digital rails namely: (i) the Philippine Identification System; (ii) next generation payment system; and (iii) open finance ecosystem. We see open finance as a means to foster digital financial inclusiveness since individual consumers and small businesses would be empowered to choose the financial service provider that could offer products and services suited to their needs at reasonable costs. This is made possible through “permission based” access to consumer data that will enable banks and other financial institutions to develop products and services that address the needs of the customers. In line with the BSP’s thrust to promote effective risk management systems without stifling innovation, the BSP will institutionalize its regulatory sandbox or test and learn approach to provide guidance and encourage FinTech companies to propose solutions that will address gaps 4/6 BIS central bankers' speeches and improve products and services in the digital financial ecosystem. The BSP is also currently working on an issuance which will explicitly set out our expectations on the fraud management systems of our supervised financial institutions. In view of the increasing number and evolving forms of cyberthreat attacks, supervised financial institutions are expected to adopt more robust systems to protect their data and systems and ensure delivery of uninterrupted services. We hope that this issuance will further strengthen industry partnerships and collaboration keeping in mind that the fight against cyberthreats is not a battle faced by one bank alone. It is a battle that should be fought collectively by the entire financial industry. Finally, the BSP recognizes that environment and climate change related risks may translate to financial losses and pose threats to financial stability in the long run. In this regard, the BSP issued the Sustainable Finance Framework under Circular No. 1085 to mainstream the adoption of the sustainability agenda in the financial industry. This will be followed by more granular expectations in managing climate change and other environment-related risks in relation to key financial risks such as credit and operational risks. Our team is already completing the assessment of comments received on the draft guidance and we are targeting to publish the issuance by the fourth quarter of this year. Parallel to this, the BSP, in partnership with the World Wildlife Fund (W W F) Philippines, The World Bank, and industry associations will conduct vulnerability assessments and stress testing exercises with volunteer banks. The BSP will leverage on the results of said exercise in the issuance of supplemental stress testing guidelines, and enhancement to the prudential reportorial requirements. These exercise will enable the BSP to gather more data and information for financial surveillance analysis and policy development. Within the BSP, we have also embraced sustainability principles with the formal launch of our Sustainable Central Banking Program. We have taken significant strides in this space as a recognized champion of the sustainability agenda. First, the BSP has invested USD 550 million in the green bond fund of the Bank for International Settlements. Second, we are conducting a vulnerability assessment of the BSP branches in the region to determine our potential losses in case of severe hazards. Along this line, we launched a design competition for the New BSP Complex to be built in New Clark City. The BSP Complex is envisioned to become a global benchmark for a smart, green, and modern facility that promotes environmental sustainability and efficiency. Finally, we continue to strengthen engagement with varied stakeholders in the domestic and international fronts to intensify our campaign for the adoption of sustainability principles. To further strengthen financial stability, the BSP is supporting key legislations. These include the Deposit Secrecy Bill, Financial Consumer Protection Act, and the Amendments to the Agri-Agra Mandatory Credit Allocation. The BSP is pushing for the Amendment of the Bank Secrecy Laws to ensure the conduct of effective supervision of banks. We believe that BSP should be granted unimpaired access to information on depositors to fulfill its supervision mandate and protect the interests of depositors. 5/6 BIS central bankers' speeches The Financial Consumer Protection Bill will provide a comprehensive financial consumer protection regime that consolidates financial inclusion, financial education, good governance, and effective supervision for the purpose of consumer protection. Meanwhile, the amendments to the Agri-Agra Law recommends a financing approach that considers the requirements of the broader agricultural ecosystem. The proposed amendments to the Law are envisioned to strengthen rural development and improve well-being of agricultural and rural community beneficiaries. In closing, we look forward to BAIPHIL’s utmost support and commitment as we pursue our financial sector stability and resiliency agenda. Aside from further training and conduct of fora, BAIPHIL may consider sponsoring or conducting studies to contribute to the growing literature on the Philippine banking system. We will be happy to be your partner in this endeavor as we also recently created a BSP Research Academy. The BSP looks forward to our continued partnership in retooling, reskilling, and shaping the professional development of our colleagues in the banking industry. I would also like to recognize the officers and committee chairpersons of the BAIPHIL in the past year under the leadership of our very own Assistant Governor Resty Cruz. Under their leadership BAIPHIL remained strong and productive despite the ongoing crisis. Maraming salamat at Mabuhay po tayong lahat! 6/6 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Annual Conference of the Microfinance Council of the Philippines, 18 August 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Emerging from the crisis - challenges and opportunities in the new economy Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Annual Conference of the Microfinance Council of the Philippines, 18 August 2021. * * * To the members of the Microfinance Council of the Philippines led by Mr. Eduardo Jimenez, microfinance champions and advocates, colleagues in government, partners in financial inclusion, guests, ladies and gentlemen: a pleasant afternoon to all. We at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas are always glad to be a part of this annual conference. We look forward to this yearly gathering as it gives us an on-the-ground perspective of current developments and challenges in the microfinance industry. The past few weeks have indeed been eventful. The COVID-19 pandemic rages on. We have been in this battle against the virus for more than a year, with anxieties renewed amid reported cases of the Delta variant. Meanwhile, the recently concluded Tokyo Olympics leaves a mark in history as our weightlifter, Hidilyn Diaz, captured the country’s first ever gold medal while Nesthy Petecio brought home our first medal in women’s boxing. This has indeed been our country’s best Olympic campaign and medal tally to date. The medals and efforts of the whole Philippine contingent have given a ray of hope and inspiration for the Filipino people in these dark times. It is quite fitting that our country’s first gold should come from weightlifting. We can draw parallels from this story of triumph to the important work done by our microfinance institutions. Just as Hidilyn lifted 127 kilograms or about 280 pounds of steel in her winning moment, microfinance institutions are also lifting the weight of over 9 million poor and underserved Filipinos. This is what financial inclusion is all about: lifting each other up. Moreover, Hidilyn’s road to the gold, as we now know, was not an easy one. Along the way, she had doubts and hardships. The future, for a moment, had been uncertain. Yet she never wavered, never gave up. We see the same strong, indomitable Filipino spirit in our microfinance institutions. We heard compelling stories of the sacrifices the microfinance community has made to continue serving the last mile: avoiding layoffs; officers taking voluntary pay cuts; and continuing fieldwork to check on clients despite the current health and safety risks. The microfinance community’s efforts also extended to giving goods to the public and frontliners 1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches and assisting the government in its cash aid distribution programs. Like Hidilyn, who struggled but gave all her strength and lifted the weight over her head for the gold, you refused to lose to this pandemic. Despite incurring substantial loses yourselves, you are coming out stronger, more powerful, and determined than ever. Indeed, microfinance institutions continue to overcome the odds to continue the important work of financial inclusion to empower unserved and underserved Filipinos. We believe you are GIANTS, just like Hidilyn. Time and again, you have propelled financial inclusion in the country among those considered unbankable – women, low-income workers, and rural communities. With over PHP 60 billion loan portfolio, you play a huge role in boosting our microenterprises. Your trust-based, “personal touch” approach have made you the go-to providers of formal credit for the low-income, entrepreneurial poor. Your compassion and clarity of mission to uplift Filipinos at the financial margins do not go unnoticed. Thus, we are working to ensure you have all possible means at your disposal to drive postpandemic recovery, compete on a level playing field with other industry stalwarts, and propel our financial inclusion mission further and higher. The BSP as Chair of the Financial Inclusion Steering Committee continues to explore ways to assist microfinance institutions, as well as facilitate technical assistance and capacity building for digitalization from development partners. Following the proposal for a COVID-19 relief package, we are engaging the Philippine Guarantee Corporation for a dedicated credit guarantee to encourage the extension of wholesale loans by private banks to microfinance institutions at more responsive terms to enable continued service to clients. The microfinance community has also made digitalization a major priority. Based on a rapid survey conducted last year, 96% of microfinance institutions cited digital payments as a primary initiative, followed by 72% citing app or online platform launching. To support you in your respective digitalization efforts, we are actively pushing for a robust digital finance infrastructure. With the Philippine Statistics Authority and National Economic Development Authority accelerating the PhilSys rollout, we can draw in more unbanked Filipinos into the formal financial system. Our microentrepreneurs, nanays, and tatays can approach microfinance institutions to open an account and secure credit with just their PhilID. Onboarding will be more cost-efficient too for our service providers. We are boosting our whole-of-government approach to diversify the broadband market so that Filipinos across the country can have affordable internet connectivity and digital financial services available to them. We have begun with steps to encourage the adoption of satellite broadband. Microfinance institutions can save on IT costs, automate processes, and enhance delivery of financial services in the last mile through this technology. Picture a farmer in the field or a fisherman at sea doing pera padala, paying loans, receiving 2/3 BIS central bankers' speeches payments with his phone through your mobile apps, just as he would use its built-in GPS to check the weather or navigate the seas. The possibilities are endless. Together with industry partners, we launched the QR Ph to standardize and create an interoperable QR system for person-to-person and person-to-merchant fund transfers. In terms of policy, our recently issued open finance framework gives the power of data to the people. Through open finance, players inside and outside of the industry, regardless of size, will have an opportunity to provide more contextualized services for a wider client base. The digital age is here, and so we encourage microfinance institutions to continue their advance towards digital adoption. As more businesses, including microenterprises shift online, it is also fitting that financial service providers do the same. And so, we urge you to capitalize on these developments. Crises also breed opportunities. And there is no time like the present to recalibrate strategies and fortify digital capabilities. The pandemic may seem insurmountable, but giants like you continue to take huge steps with government to ensure no one is left behind. We owe much to the microfinance community. After all, the BSP’s financial inclusion mission started with microfinance, in the belief that the poor can contribute just as much, if not more, to the country’s growth and prosperity. In closing, we must do things with a greater sense of urgency and efficiency. We must aim higher and strive to reach out to more Filipinos. As the Olympic motto goes: Citius (kee-tee-oos), Altius (al-tee-oos), Fortius (for-tee-oos) – Communiter (ko-moo-ni-ter). Faster, higher, stronger – Together. Maraming salamat at mabuhay ang MCPI. Mabuhay ang Pilipinas. 3/3 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Opening message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and Monetary Authority of Singapore Virtual Signing of the Amendment Agreement Enhancing the Innovation Function Co-operation Agreement, 4 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Signing of the Amendment Agreement Enhancing the Innovation Function Co-operation Agreement Opening message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and Monetary Authority of Singapore Virtual Signing of the Amendment Agreement Enhancing the Innovation Function Cooperation Agreement, 4 November 2021. * * * To the Monetary Authority of Singapore Managing Director Ravi Menon, senior officers of the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. When I took the helm at the BSP, I clearly laid out my priority agenda—that is—to enable universal access to secure, affordable, and convenient digital services to more financial consumers as a way of bringing the central bank closer to the Filipino people. To accomplish this goal, we intensified our efforts to undertake digital transformation on a nationwide scale. We even expanded BSP’s capability by creating an entirely new sector that’s focused on Digital Payments. Gradually, we expanded use of digital payments in the country from only 1% in 2013 to 20% by the end of 2020. This development affirms that we’ve done significant progress in the domestic sphere. Now, we are ready to extend the reach of the enhanced retail payments of the Philippines beyond our borders. A seamless cross-border payment system can facilitate remittances, tourism, trade and investments. All of these activities have fueled our country’s development before the pandemic. And they would also be vital for our post-pandemic recovery. We chose Singapore to take the next step with us given our strong economic and social ties. Other than hosting many Filipino workers, Singapore is one of our top trading and tourism partners. Four years ago, the BSP and the MAS signed the Innovation Function Co-operation Agreement to provide a venue for collaboration in the fintech arena. Today, we are enhancing the agreement to include joint undertakings in payment innovation and formally commence the work on the possible linkage of our fast payment systems, between the Philippines’ InstaPay and Singapore’s PayNow. I’m confident, that this collaboration would further strengthen the ties between our two nations. So, let me take this opportunity to thank the Monetary Authority of Singapore for our continued engagement for the shared vision of an integrated, multilateral, and interoperable cross-border payment system in the ASEAN region. Thank you. 1/1 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Chinese Filipino Business Club Webinar, 4 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Getting back on track - economic and financial developments and BSP policy responses Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Chinese Filipino Business Club Webinar, 4 November 2021. * * * President Alejandro Co, officers and members of the Chinese Filipino Business Club, good morning. It is my pleasure to be with you in today’s virtual session. At this juncture, we have regained some relative stability in our macroeconomic and financial situation. While there was a rapid increase in COVID cases in August due to the delta variant, the country managed to successfully reduce this. New confirmed cases stood at 2303 on November 02, a sharp decline from the peak of 26,303 on September 11. This encouraging development comes with the increasing vaccination rate. As of October 31, 8.6 million or 88.1 percent of the target population in the National Capital Region have been fully vaccinated. The government has been scaling up the vaccination program as we receive a steady supply of vaccines from multiple sources. The country was able to secure 195.4 million doses of vaccine in total, receiving 101.5 million doses as of 29 October. This, together with the sustained implementation of targeted fiscal stimulus, should help boost market confidence and recovery of the economy in the coming months. After five consecutive quarters of economic contractions, the Philippine economy grew by 11.8 percent, from a 17.0 percent decline in Q2 2020. Almost all sectors and expenditure segments of the economy bounced back during the quarter. This indicates that the country is learning how to live with the virus by managing risks through the safe reopening of the economy and calibrated reimposition of granular quarantine restrictions when necessary. Liquidity in the financial system remains ample, expanding by 8.2 percent year-on-year in September 2021. This was faster than the 6.9-percent growth recorded in August, and on a month-on-month seasonally-adjusted basis, M3 rose by 1.3 percent. Credit activity also increased 2.7 percent in September 2021 up from 1.3-percent in August. The continued growth in outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks reflects the modest recovery in banks’ overall lending attitudes and improved economic prospects. While the gross NPL ratio of the Philippine banking system (PBS) stood at 4.5 percent in August 2021, higher compared to 2.8 percent a year ago, the uptick was accompanied by loan-loss provisioning with an NPL coverage ratio of 83.5 percent. Meanwhile, the country’s external sector remains manageable. The country’s exports and imports of goods increased by 21.3 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively. 1/4 BIS central bankers' speeches Cash remittances from overseas Filipinos (OFs) are also strengthening, with 5.7 percent growth in January to August 2021, from a 2.6 percent contraction in the same period in 2020. Meanwhile, the BPO sector remained a bright spot despite the disruption to business activities around the world. In the first seven months of 2021, net foreign direct investments increased by 43.1 percent. This is due to positive foreign investor sentiment on the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals and strong growth prospects. The country’s outstanding external debt also remains at a prudent level as its ratio to GDP slightly eased to 26.5 percent in end-June 2021. Notably, a large portion of our external debt has medium- and long-term maturity profile and carry fixed interest rates. These support a manageable debt repayment schedule and foreign borrowings are less susceptible to volatilities in global interest rates or foreign exchange fluctuations. The gross international reserves (GIR), which stood at US$106.6 billion as of September 2021, continue to provide more than adequate external liquidity buffer. The GIR level is equivalent to almost 11 months worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. This far exceeds the 3-month conventional reserve level considered as adequate. Let me now go to the policy responses of the BSP to support the economy during the pandemic. First were measures to boost market confidence on availability of low cost credit resources, such as cuts in the policy rate and the reserve requirement. Second were extraordinary liquidity measures to the National Government to help fund the pandemic-response measures. These include provisional advances to the national government, purchases of government securities in the secondary market, and remittance of advance dividends to the national governments. Third were regulatory and operational relief measures to maintain stability of the financial system and ensure public access to financial services. We counted loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises as compliance to the reserve requirement, increased the single borrower’s limit, and raised the ceiling for real-estate loans. On MSMEs: The BSP recognizes the crucial role of MSMEs in the economy. Let me discuss the regulatory and relief measures that the BSP has implemented to support them. One is allowing the new peso-denominated loans to MSMEs and critically impacted large enterprises that do not belong to a conglomerate as eligible instruments for compliance with the BSP’s reserve requirement. For the week ending 23 September 2021, the banking system allocated an average of P195.9 billion loans for MSMEs as alternative compliance with the reserve requirements. This level is a substantial increase from the P8.7 billion average MSME loans that were reported for the week ending 30 April 2020. The latest level is equivalent to 13.3 percent of the total required reserves, from 0.6 percent on 30 April 2020. 2/4 BIS central bankers' speeches The Monetary Board also approved prudential measures to assist MSMEs. The regulatory capital treatment of MSME exposures was amended to temporarily reduce the risk weights of loans granted to MSMEs. The implementation of the revised risk-based capital framework for banks was also deferred from end-2021 to end-2022 The period of relief on the reporting of past due and non-performing loans of borrowers affected by the pandemic was also extended to 31 December 2021 from the original timeline of 8 March 2021 subject to reporting to the BSP. Now let me go to BSP’s policy rate. Given a manageable inflation path, the BSP has kept the key policy interest rate at 2.0 percent in its recent policy review on 23 September 2021. As of 14 October 2021, the BSP’s policy and liquidity-easing measures have injected an estimated P2.3 trillion (or approximately USD46 billion). This is equivalent to 12.8 percent of the country’s full year nominal GDP for 2020 as of 14 October 2021. The BSP believes that sustained monetary policy support for domestic demand should help the economic recovery gain more traction. Looking ahead, the BSP affirmed its support to the economy for as long as necessary to ensure the country’s strong and sustainable economic recovery. Moving forward, the BSP’s actions and policy thrusts will continue to be anchored on its core mandates of promoting price and financial stability. Towards this end, the BSP will continue to pursue appropriate policy actions responsive to the needs of the time. On monetary policy: the BSP will remain vigilant over the current inflation dynamics to ensure that the monetary policy stance continues to support economic recovery to the extent that the inflation outlook would allow. It will carefully scan the operating environment with a forward-looking perspective to move in a pre-emptive fashion to address any risks to our price stability mandate. On the financial sector: the BSP will intensify its monitoring and surveillance over its supervised institutions to ensure that they remain resilient to emerging risks and continue to be sound, stable, and inclusive, particularly through the pursuit of enhanced digitization. Finally, on the external sector: the BSP will remain supportive of policies that will help strengthen the economy’s resilience to external shocks, including that of maintaining a market-determined exchange rate, keeping a comfortable level of reserves, and keeping the country’s external debt manageable. Considering the recent economic developments and significant improvement in inoculation, we are optimistic that there is sufficient support for the country’s recovery this year and in the near term. Finally, allow me to end my presentation with these key points: The country’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound and bright spots suggest recovery is 3/4 BIS central bankers' speeches underway. The latest GDP growth suggests that the economy has started its gradual recovery. The currently high inflation is due to transitory factors. Banks remain sound and while NPL has increased, banks remain highly capitalized. External position is manageable with more than adequate external liquidity buffer and improving overseas Filipino remittances. While economic activity has improved, the overall momentum of the economic recovery remains tentative as the threat of new COVID-19 strains continues. Nevertheless, the sustained implementation of targeted fiscal initiatives as well as the acceleration of the Government’s vaccination program should help boost market confidence and recovery of the economy in the coming months. The BSP believes that sustained monetary policy support for domestic demand should help the economic recovery gain more traction. Looking ahead, the BSP affirmed its support to the economy for as long as necessary to ensure the country’s strong and sustainable economic recovery. The BSP’s actions and policy thrusts will continue to be anchored on its core mandates of promoting price and financial stability. Toward this end, the BSP will continue to pursue appropriate policy actions responsive to the needs of the time. It will also continue undertaking a range of initiatives to create a more sustainable MSME and agriculture financing ecosystem. Thank you. 4/4 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Signing of Memorandum of Agreement for the Mergers, Consolidation, and Acquisition of Banks, 4 November 2021.
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Singapore Fintech Festival, 11 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Driving inclusion and digital transformation through open finance Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Singapore Fintech Festival, 11 November 2021. * * * A pleasant day to everyone! Thank you for this opportunity to share insights on the role of open finance in driving inclusion, innovation, and customer-centricity. Open finance deserves particular attention among policymakers and the private sector. When developed and implemented in a responsible way, open finance can unlock gateways towards rapid digital transformation and wider financial inclusion. We, at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, view that the essential features of open finance can foster responsible data-based innovations that can advance financial inclusion through the development of customer-centric financial products and services. The first essential feature of open finance is consent-driven data portability. Under the open finance framework, consumers are recognized as owners of their transaction data, empowering them to grant access and share their data to financial institutions and thirdparty participants of their choice. The second feature is interoperability and collaborative partnerships. Open finance will involve collaboration and data sharing among incumbent financial institutions and new third-party players such as banks, non-bank electronic money issuers and operators of payment systems. The diversity of participants provides alternative sources of consumer data beyond conventional banking transactions such as utility and bills payments, investments, and insurance choices, providing a rich digital footprint of customer behavior and service needs. Lastly, open finance shall result in the development of customer-centric products and services. Gaining access to multiple sources of data covering a wide range of transactions will enable industry players to gain a deeper insight into customer preferences and behavior. This, in turn, will lead to the development of a more diverse, and more responsive suite of financial products that are tailored to the needs and preferences of consumers and businesses, thereby reinforcing financial inclusion. Open finance can be a powerful tool for the BSP to achieve its main strategic objectives under its Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap of transforming 50 percent of the volume of retail payments into digital form and onboarding 70 percent of adult Filipinos in the formal financial system by 2023. As of end-2020, about 20.1 percent of monthly retail payments volume in the Philippines are already in digital form and we are confident of achieving our target to reach 50% by 2023. Building on this progress, the BSP and the payments industry continue to move towards the development of an open finance ecosystem that can support more innovative digital payment solutions in the country. In addition, the innovation brought about by open finance is expected to expand financial inclusion in the Philippines. Through its capability to accumulate and facilitate the sharing of a rich and 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches diversified set of customer data, open finance can enable the design and delivery of financial products and services that cater to the varying needs and preferences of the unbanked and underserved, including the micro, small and medium enterprises or MSMEs. In the Philippines, MSMEs account for 99.5 percent of businesses and employ about two thirds of the labor force. Through tailor-fit financing solutions, open finance will be able to onboard more MSMEs into the formal financial system and provide them with the access to digital financial services. The improved access to finance by MSMEs can help sustain their economic activities and aid in the digital transformation of their businesses, thereby empowering them to be an integral part of the country’s economic recovery. While open finance holds immense promise, the BSP recognizes that such benefits may only be realized when end-users’ interests are protected through the institutionalization of policies that safeguard data security, confidentiality and integrity. These are all essential in fostering public trust in the financial and payments system and advancing financial inclusion. Hence, the BSP issued guidelines on the Open Finance Framework which sets the governance and standards for the acquisition, use, and sharing of client data. These guidelines emphasize the need to safeguard customers’ interests in establishing an open finance ecosystem by setting forth the regulatory expectations on consumer protection, data privacy and confidentiality, user consent and dispute mechanisms, among others. The BSP is also in the process of developing a policy on data governance and ethical use of data. This policy aims to ensure that financial data and customer information obtained and passing through different digital channels will be handled ethically, and that all participants will be bound by sound data governance principles. These policy initiatives are consistent with the BSP’s approach of creating an enabling policy environment that encourages innovations in support of digital transformation and financial inclusion, while upholding financial stability, data security, confidentiality, and consumer protection. In sum, open finance is another milestone through which we can break down the barriers to financial inclusion. It offers an opportunity to leverage on the digital transformation of the financial system to make productive use of data in order to develop financial products and services that are tailored to the needs of end-users. As we move towards the post-COVID-19 economy, it is important that regulators and the private sector collaborate to utilize innovations like open finance not just to broaden the range of digital financial services and businesses that can be gained from all the available information. Rather, open finance should serve, together with our other digitalization efforts, to improve the welfare of every citizen, especially the poor, the marginalized and the unbanked, as we strive towards a truly inclusive recovery. Thank you and good day! 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 29th APPEND (Alliance of Philippine Partners for Enterprise Development) Leadership Conference, 10 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Supporting the digitalization of microfinance institutions Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 29th APPEND (Alliance of Philippine Partners for Enterprise Development) Leadership Conference, 10 November 2021. * * * Good day to the leaders and client-members of the Alliance of Philippine Partners for Enterprise Development or APPEND, led by President and CEO Virginia Juan and Chairman Angel De Leon, Jr. Greetings as well to the host of the 29th APPEND Leadership Conference, Tulay sa Pag-unlad, Incorporated. Thank you for inviting the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to take part in this important event. We are always delighted to engage with the microfinance community, our chief partners in promoting financial inclusion in the countryside. The microfinance community is no stranger to servant leadership. From officers taking voluntary pay cuts to members distributing relief goods to the needy, your collective response has served as an outstanding example of leadership through crisis. We commend APPEND particularly for its Food Cart for Nanays program, which provides seed capital to poor families affected by the pandemic. This is a worthy undertaking in its aim to help Filipinos regain dignity of work. Our gains in financial inclusion clearly owe much to your dedication to serve the country’s unbanked and the underserved. Microfinance non-governmental organizations or MF-NGOs remain the major sources of formal credit and drivers of account penetration among the rural population and the country’s poorest. Moreover, microfinance institutions or MFIs are helping us propel digitalization, with 96% of MFIs citing digital payments as a primary initiative followed by 72% citing mobile app or online platform launching. We are glad that APPEND has taken the digital leap forward with APPENDPay to help clients and MFIs participate in the digital finance ecosystem. As a registered Operator of Payment System, APPENDPay can serve as a model for digital adoption in the industry. However, we also know these efforts come at a cost. We are thus working to further ensure MFIs are equally placed alongside big industry players and well-positioned to advance financial inclusion beyond the pandemic. Under our Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap, we envision 70% of Filipino adults will own a transaction account and at least 50% of payment transactions will be digital by 2023. We have mobilized various initiatives guided by the DPTR’s vision and objectives and urge MFIs to explore opportunities created by these initiatives. Allow me to share some recent developments. On expanding digital payment rails 1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches We are promoting compelling use cases to show the versatility of a transaction account, which is considered the gateway to financial inclusion. Through an account, MFIs and their clients can pay government fees through EGov Pay, disburse wages, and collect revenues, among other benefits. Simultaneously, we are expanding digital payment rails to make online and mobile transactions more convenient. Together with industry partners, we launched the QR Ph Person-to-Person or P2P payments in 2019, followed by the full launch of Person-to-Merchants, or P2M just this October. P2M payments will help microenterprises boost competitiveness and revenue streams. Vendors with QR code can accept payments from other P2M-participating financial service providers – or FSPs – while customers need not pay fees when availing goods and services. There are currently 12 FSPs and over 20,000 merchants enjoying the benefits of P2M. As part of our regulatory initiatives, we recently issued circulars on Digital Banking and Open Finance. Digital banks – with their deep technology and innovation orientation – can boost dynamism in digital financial services that will benefit the underserved markets. These innovative players can also act as service partners and intermediaries for MFIs. To date, we have already approved six digital banking licenses. Meanwhile, open finance encourages the creation of more contextualized services for a broader market, promoting deeper collaboration and interoperability among various players, including fintechs. On creating a robust digital finance infrastructure Our collaboration with government counterparts to bolster the country’s digital finance infrastructure is aimed at ensuring the reliable delivery of digital financial services and sustainability of related innovations. We continue to support the national ID or PhilSys rollout. We strongly urge MFIs to take full advantage of Philsys to deliver more innovations in microfinance. With the PhilSys, MFIs can reduce onboarding costs. Unlike other IDs, the PhilSys will enable MFIs to authenticate a person’s identity online and real-time, as well as conduct seamless eKYC. The pilot launch of the PhilSys online authentication, e-KYC, and phased onboarding of private sector relying parties are set for next year. The Philippine Statistics Authority has made significant progress in Philsys implementation, with 36 million Filipinos completing registration of their demographic and biometric data. The PhilSys will support the mainstreaming of transaction accounts, particularly the Basic Deposit Account, which is designed to meet the needs of the unbanked. In fact, 5.6 million bank accounts have been opened for unbanked Filipinos from low-income households through a co-location scheme by the PSA and Land Bank of the Philippines. We are also pursuing policy reforms on digital connectivity to accelerate financial inclusion across the country. 2/3 BIS central bankers' speeches We endorsed Executive Order No. 127 signed by President Rodrigo Roa Duterte in March, promoting satellite broadband technologies to advance rural connectivity. We are pleased to share that its Implementing Rules and Regulations are in place and encourage MFIs to harness this policy. Key reforms like EO 127 aim to expand participation in the satellite broadband space — enhancing connectivity and enabling MFIs to deliver digital financial services more efficiently to rural communities. On establishing strong market conduct Advancing digitalization equally entails building public trust and confidence in the digital financial ecosystem. We are thus strengthening our efforts to promote consumer protection and empowerment. We want all Filipinos to be digitally and financially literate, capable of making informed decisions on their financial welfare. To mainstream digital financial services usage among financial consumers, we launched our Digital Literacy Program last year with the “#SafeAtHome with E-payments” and “E-Safety is Everyone’s Responsibility” online campaigns. We continue to hold financial literacy webinars for target segments such as micro, small, and medium enterprises. We also launched BOB, short for BSP Online Buddy. Through BOB, MFI clients have an expedient channel to report their financial consumer concerns. BOB is available via our official website, social media accounts, and text messaging. We are exploring additional features for BOB given the positive feedback we have received. On innovation for good We share APPEND’s belief in strengthening personal ties with the people we serve. Our strategic interventions are intended to bring the BSP closer to the public. Moreover, we are committed to helping our partners and stakeholders, especially MFIs, in their digitalization journey. We continue to engage the donor and development community to encourage provision of technical and financial assistance for the digitalization initiatives of MFIs. May this year’s conference bring fresh insights and renewed zeal to help the poorest and most vulnerable through digital innovations. In closing, allow me to cite a passage from the Book of Philippians that, like Hebrews 13, speaks of dedication and selflessness: “Do nothing out of selfish ambition or vain conceit. Rather, in humility value others above yourselves, not looking to your own interests but each of you to the interests of the others.” May we all continue to embrace our financial inclusion mission. For in doing so, we can bring a message of hope and help others live with dignity and purpose, especially in these trying times. Thank you and stay safe. 3/3 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 43rd Annual Convention of the Real Estate Brokers Association of the Philippines, 11 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: The role of real estate practitioners in advancing sustainable growth in the new normal Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 43rd Annual Convention of the Real Estate Brokers Association of the Philippines, 11 November 2021. * * * Officials of the Real Estate Brokers Association of the Philippines (REBAP), ladies and gentlemen, a pleasant afternoon to ALL of you. Thank you for inviting me to your 43rd Annual Convention. The theme of the convention, “Spirited REBAP: Thriving and Working Together in Shaping the Future”, reminds us of the need to dream big and to take bold action. Thus, I welcome this opportunity to share the BSP’s thoughts on the critical role of real estate practitioners in advancing our common objective of achieving sustainable growth in the postCOVID-19 economy. I will start by discussing the economic landscape, including developments in the real estate market. This will be followed by highlights on the performance of the Philippine banking system. Next, I will focus my discussion on the BSP’s initiatives relevant to real estate practitioners and share how these initiatives have affected financing to the real estate sector. I will conclude with a few thoughts on how the BSP and the industry can further strengthen our partnership for purposes of supporting the recovery of the Philippine economy. While the real estate industry is not under the direct regulatory purview of the BSP, it is viewed as an important sector in the BSP’s conduct of monetary policy and financial supervision for the following reasons: First, asset prices affect volatility in general price levels and economic output. Also, volatility in asset prices, which could result from undue speculation or bubbles, may give rise to widespread financial instability. In the past, a real estate boom is primarily financed by bank lending. Real estate is a creditintensive good, but one of the most illiquid assets of financial institutions. Moreover, the BSP’s policy actions affect the movements and behavior in the property market. For example, a hike in policy rate lowers the value of asset holdings of individuals and financial institutions and could potentially make credit financing more costly for both buyers and property suppliers. In 2020, like most of the industries, the real estate and construction sectors contracted in Q1 2020 and throughout the pandemic year 2020. In the second quarter of 2021, however, the real estate and construction subsectors have started to recover as restrictions on mobility and economic activity were gradually relaxed. We also saw real estate demand slip due to pandemic-related uncertainties. The capital values for office and residential units in the country’s major commercial and business 1/6 BIS central bankers' speeches districts decreased in 2020 due to lesser demand amid the pandemic. A higher vacancy rate was also recorded during the period due mainly to slowdown in leasing activities, weak demand and a cautious market. Based on the latest Residential Real Estate Price Index, the residential real estate prices of various types of new housing units declined further in Q2 2021. The nationwide house prices contracted by 9.4 percent year-on-year in Q2 2021, from –4.2 percent in Q1 2021 as the pandemic hit demand. However, high base effects may also have contributed to the significant decline during the period as the index peaked in Q2 2020 while posting a 4.8 percent increase quarter-on-quarter. Meanwhile, the national Commercial Property Price Index, which measures the average changes in appraised values of commercial properties, shows a deceleration in growth in the second half of 2020. The BSP anticipates that activity in the real estate market will recover in line with rebound in overall economic growth in 2022. Meanwhile, the Philippine banking system remained on solid footing as shown by continued growth in assets, deposits and capital, as well as positive net profit, stable capital and liquidity buffers, ample loan loss reserves and manageable loan quality. Overall, the banking system’s financial condition remains supportive of the country’s financing needs. At the height of the pandemic in 2020, the BSP implemented liquidity-enhancing measures to support financing requirements of the economy. For instance, the BSP lowered the BSP’s policy rate by 200 basis points. This rate has since been maintained at 2.0 percent, the lowest rate since the beginning of the pandemic. The BSP also reduced reserve requirements of universal banks to 12 percent from 14 percent. This policy stance has contributed to a general decline in lending rates across all loan product categories. For instance, the weighted average interest rate of housing loans dropped to 6.6 percent as of end-June 2021 from 8 percent in end-March 2020. Similarly, the weighted average interest rate of loans to corporations fell to 4.9 percent as of endJune 2021 from 5.9 percent as of end-March 2020. The BSP’s liquidity measures were complemented by a package of prudential reforms that aim to support lending and the grant of financial relief to borrowers. For instance a) The Single Borrower’s Limit of banks or SBL was temporarily increased to 30 percent from 25 percent until end December 2021. The increase aims to promote the flow of liquidity at the wholesale level and ensure sustained credit towards programs and projects that will support economic recovery. b) The BSP allowed new loans or restructured loans to micro-, small and medium enterprises as well as loans to large enterprises that are critically-impacted by the pandemic as alternative compliance with the reserve requirements. This means that banks need not maintain funds in their demand deposit account with the BSP but can tap the same for purposes of lending to eligible enterprises. 2/6 BIS central bankers' speeches c) The BSP also recently issued twin regulations which we expect will further incentivize banks to grant new loans or restructure loan accounts of their borrowers. The first measure clarifies the prudential treatment of restructured loans and will be in effect until end December 2022. The second measure allows banks to add back to their capital, the increase in provisioning requirements applicable to new and restructured loans from 1 January 2022 until 31 December 2023. These temporary relief measures will soften the impact of provisioning requirements on new and restructured loans on capital which will provide banks with room to further tailor loan terms to their client’s requirements. As to the measures that ease prudential requirements applicable to real estate financing – First, the BSP increased the real estate loan limit of universal/commercial banks to 25 percent from 20 percent. Real estate loans that are subject to this limit excludes certain loans such as: 1. Residential real estate loans or loans to individuals for own occupancy since these loans generally exhibit lower risk, and 2. Loans to developers/construction companies to finance the development and/or construction of socialized and low-cost housing units in line with the National Government’s housing program. Second, the BSP revised the methodology for computing a bank’s compliance with the real estate stress test limits by excluding residential real estate loans. Loans to finance public infrastructure are not included in the determination of a bank’s compliance with both of these prudential limits. Banks have responded positively to these measures through sustained financing to the sector. Loans of the Philippine banking system are broad-based, but real estate activities have consistently been the top recipient of bank loans. Banks’ real estate exposures continued to grow amid the pandemic. Real estate exposures of banks are largely composed of real estate loans at 85.4 percent of total real estate exposures. In June 2021, real estate loans grew YoY by 6.1 percent to P2.3 trillion. Banks have also invested in debt and equity securities, the proceeds of which they used to finance real estate activities, although at a smaller magnitude. The ratio of overall non-performing real estate loans to total real estate loans remained at single digit level, indicating that banks have remained prudent in their assessment of real estate loans. The BSP foresees that lending to the sector will remain a priority area for banks for the years ahead. The results of the BSP’s first semester 2021 Banking Outlook Survey, which represent the sentiments of presidents and chief executive officers of banks, show that lending for real estate activities will be among the primary services of corporate and retail segments of banks for the next two years. Financing to the sector will also be supported by firm demand for real estate given the national government’s strategy of establishing safe, resilient and sustainable communities under the Philippine development plan. There is greater urgency to achieve this goal now more than ever due to the propensity of the COVID-19 virus to propagate in densely-populated communities and in areas with poor sanitation and access to water. 3/6 BIS central bankers' speeches Real estate practitioners are also expected to play an important role in upholding the integrity of the financial system. Allow me to spend some time discussing how real estate brokers would be in a strong position to execute Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing (AML/CTF) preventive measures given your involvement in the buying and selling of real estate. Criminals typically use real estate for money laundering activities because investment in such is: 1. Reliable, that is, prices are generally stable; 2. Profitable, that is, prices are likely to appreciate over time and the property may be used to generate income; and 3. Functional, that is, the property itself may be used as a home, an office, storage, and such. Moreover, condominiums and other real property have been identified as assets of criminals in majority of fraud, corruption, and illegal drug cases. Let me cite a few examples: Just recently, the Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC) filed a petition for civil forfeiture on assets, including a real estate property in Cebu, relative to illegal drugs. As of 2020, real estate with an estimated value of almost P900 million accounted for 22 percent of the total assets subject of civil forfeiture proceedings in the Philippines. The AMLC has been able to confiscate almost P30 million worth of real estate that was “used as a means to hide the proceeds of crime and/or as an instrumentality of crime, including terrorism financing.” Several real estate assets, which are subject of existing freeze orders, have also been found to be related to terrorism financing. Purchasing real property integrates illicit funds into the legal economy. When used for business activities, the purchased real property, such as a hotel or restaurant, may also provide what appears to be a legitimate source of income. Now that real estate brokers are covered under the ambit of the Anti-Money Laundering Act, as amended, real estate brokers are obliged to put into place measures to prevent and detect money laundering and its predicate crimes, terrorism, and terrorism financing. These AML/CTF requirements are not meant to burden real estate brokers but designed to add more credibility, preserve the integrity of the real estate sector, and prevent it from being used as a channel or a repository of criminal proceeds. The actions required of real estate brokers include: 1. Conduct of Customer Due Diligence (CDD)/Know-Your-Customer (KYC) procedures on all clients; 2. Filing of covered transaction reports on single cash transactions in excess of P7.5 million or its equivalent in any currency; and filing of suspicious transaction reports, which are transactions, regardless of the amounts involved, where any of the suspicious circumstances listed in the amla, as amended, exists; and 3. Recordkeeping of all CDD/KYC and transaction records for at least five (5) years. First, it must be noted that real estate brokers are already performing two (2) of these three requirements, that is, CDD/KYC procedures and recordkeeping. Since the purchase of real property from a real estate broker or developer is an official and 4/6 BIS central bankers' speeches contractual undertaking, stating personal information as well as the sources of funds should not be an issue—if the client has nothing illegal to conceal. Further, the client would only have to accomplish and sign a one-time declaration form, which will be stored for a minimum of five (5) years by the real estate broker. Second, it must be emphasized that covered transactions only involve single cash transactions of over P7.5 million. This means that all transactions that are below the threshold or those that are facilitated through banks or in-house financing are not covered transactions. It is also worth mentioning that clients paying real estate brokers and developers in sizeable amounts of cold cash is not conventional in the industry. We all know that housing is a basic Filipino need. The city of the future will go beyond safe and affordable housing but will be characterized by smart planning, climate resilient and energy efficient systems, as well as inclusive and socially uplifting communities. Moving towards this ideal entails the promotion of sustainability practices at the grassroots level which we hope will create a ripple effect in the supply chain. The BSP has started work in this area by launching a design competition for the new BSP complex to be built in New Clark City. The BSP complex is envisioned to become a global benchmark for a smart, green, and modern facility that promotes environmental sustainability, efficiency and employee health and wellness. The BSP has also been a staunch advocate of the mainstreaming of sustainable principles in supervised entities and promotion of sustainable financing. In 2020, the BSP issued the Sustainable Finance Framework which communicated our expectations for banks to integrate sustainability principles in their corporate strategy, operations, governance and risk management systems. This was followed by the detailed guidelines on the management of environmental and social risks in relation to credit and operational risks last month. These regulations have been reinforced at the national level by the development of the Philippine Sustainable Finance Roadmap and the Sustainable Finance Guiding principles by the Green Force. The Green Force is an inter-agency body led by the BSP and the Department of Finance with 16 other government agencies as members. Through these initiatives by the Green Force, the BSP expects further inflows of investments toward green and sustainable projects or activities in the Philippines. All in all, we see a lot of promising developments. Through our efforts, the country’s real estate market can evolve into intelligent, green and sustainable communities all over the Philippines. On the part of the BSP, we will continue our efforts to provide an enabling framework that will help our country achieve balanced and sustainable economic growth and keep our financial system strong. Our combined actions will lead to a greener, better, and sustainable future for our children and the Filipino people. Congratulations and more power to the REBAP! Thank you and mabuhay! 5/6 BIS central bankers' speeches 6/6 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Opening remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Virtual Numismatic Event, 11 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Opening remarks – “Money talks -what every Filipino should know about the history of Philippine money” Opening remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Virtual Numismatic Event, 11 November 2021. * * * To the Philippine Numismatic and Antiquarian Society (PNAS), colleagues from the BSP, learners from state universities and colleges, fellows from knowledge resource networks and museums all over the country, friends from the media, and those who are watching us live from Facebook, good afternoon. I am pleased to welcome you all to “Money Talks: What Every Filipino Should Know about the History of Philippine Money,” the first virtual numismatic event organized by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas in partnership with The Philippine Numismatic and Antiquarian Society. No less than Proclamation No. 1486 Series of 1975 declares November 17–23 of every year as National Numismatic Week and designates PNAS to take charge of this national observance. But for too many of us, the coins and banknotes in our pockets are but a means to an end. We do not bother to look or even appreciate the intricate designs, security features, nor the vital historical moments captured in our money every time we take out our wallets to pay. But money plays an unquantifiable function outside of its textbook definition as a medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. Over time, our coins and banknotes have served as a silent witness to history and human development – all the while it has changed hands and enabled transactions on a global scale. From exchanging physical goods through barter to the rise of gold and silver which gave way to paper and the modern-day New Generation Currency, Philippine money has changed form and shape countless times throughout different historical periods. But in each of these transitions, our coins and banknotes never failed to capture and reflect vital historical scenes and figures. Historian Ambeth Ocampo chronicles this storied journey in our coffee table book, YAMAN: History and Heritage in Philippine Money, where he emphasizes, “Filipinos have to be reminded that they carry history in their pockets.” Today, Professor Ambeth will walk us through the history of money and how it plays into our unfolding story as a nation. We will also get to hear from Atty. William Villareal and Director Paul De Jesus of PNAS on numismatic pieces and counter-stamped coins. Lastly, the BSP’s Currency Policy and Integrity Department will share reminders on the proper handling of banknotes and coins. On its part, the BSP has been working closely with partners like PNAS to promote, protect, and preserve the country’s rich numismatic heritage through educational, cultural preservation, information sharing, and collections management initiatives. With more than 10,000 numismatic pieces in our collection that date as far back as the preHispanic area, the BSP Money Museum serves as the main repository of the country’s rich numismatic history and heritage. Built in January 1974 with the Bank’s own currency holdings and donations from various 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches collectors, the Museum is now nearing 50 years old and chronicles the rich and evolving national story in our banknotes and coins. Before I end, I would like to invite the public to look into commemorative notes and coins for sale at the BSP Store. These commemorative coins are minted in honor of a specific person or historical event – from the anniversaries of our national heroes to Pope John Paul II’s visit to the Philippines. Just a few weeks ago, we released commemorative coins featuring General Emilio Aguinaldo, Teresa Magbanua, and Mariano Ponce. You can check the BSP website or browse through social media channels for available commemorative offerings. In closing, while the BSP is pushing for the transition to a digital-first and cash-lite economy, we will always look to our coins and banknotes as timeless reminders of our past and aspirations as a nation. They will remain curators of our history and custodians of our national identity. For it is only through an understanding of the past that we gain a deeper appreciation of how far we’ve come as a nation and craft a better path ahead. At this juncture, I now turn the floor over to Professor Ambeth. Thank you and I wish everyone an insightful and productive session ahead. 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Welcome remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 6th ASEAN Central Bank Heads of Internal Audit Network Meeting, 16 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Welcome remarks - 6th ASEAN Central Bank Heads of Internal Audit Network Meeting Welcome remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 6th ASEAN Central Bank Heads of Internal Audit Network Meeting, 16 November 2021. * * * Distinguished heads of internal audit (IA) and delegates of central banks in the ASEAN Region and the Asian Development Bank, esteemed guest speakers, colleagues from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, ladies and gentlemen, a pleasant day to all. On behalf of the Monetary Board and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, I welcome you all to the 6th ASEAN Central Bank Heads of Internal Audit Network Meeting, which the BSP is hosting for the first time. It is unfortunate that we could not have hosted this meeting in Manila where we can personally meet and welcome you, but I am sure that this virtual conference will be just as engaging and productive. Behind the theme of this year’s meeting, which is aptly entitled “Internal Audit at the Forefront of Digital Innovation”, is a similar novel concept: Digital Darwinism. It revolves around a simple rule: evolve or risk being irrelevant. In the last decade, we have witnessed how technology has dramatically advanced our day-to-day lives. We have also seen how the financial services industry has evolved to offer more customer-centric financial products, leveraging on emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics, among others. The pandemic has further quickened this evolution. If anything, the pandemic has taught us that digitalization is no longer desirable to have, but a must-have. Like other ASEAN nations, the Philippines aims to regain and surpass opportunities lost to the COVID crisis. We want an economy that is stronger and more technologically advanced than ever before. One way of achieving this is through financial digitalization. Going digital, building on it, tailoring it, securing it, and pushing it to new frontiers is imperative if central banks are to be successful in navigating the post-COVID-19 economy. In 2020, the BSP has launched the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap where we aim to achieve two major goals by 2023: First, that at least half of all financial transactions in the country are done digitally; and second, at least 70 percent of Filipino adults have financial accounts. We believe that financial digitalization accelerates income growth and democratizes access to more affordable financial products and services. We have also embraced digital transformation in our internal strategy, highlighting our commitment to being an agile, resilient, and proactive organization. We envision to be a digitally transformed organization driven by a strong digital leadership, an innovative and collaborative culture, a secure and resilient technology infrastructure, and optimized work processes that support data-driven decisions. While we recognize the promising benefits of digitalization, we are also cognizant of its attendant risks. Thus, we also highlight that these efforts are underpinned by sound digital governance, adequate risk management practices, and robust internal controls. 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches Given these developments, it is important for the internal audit function to reposition itself as a strategic partner in driving digital value. The independent view of internal audit continues to be crucial, as it plays a valuable role in complementing the first- and second-line functions by providing assurance and advice on governance, risk management, and controls. Digital transformations are journeys without borders and the possibilities for digital innovation are endless. As central banks embrace change through digitalization, internal audit teams must forge the same trail; reassess perspectives; reimagine audit approaches and methodologies; and tap on reliable technologies to add more value and provide assurance to the organization. I hope that this meeting will provide a meaningful platform for discussing internal audit’s rapidly evolving role in these areas. The shared views, practices and experiences during the sessions will certainly enrich our knowledge and inform our individual and collective digital transformation journey. Thank you and I wish you all a meaningful discussion ahead. 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Trust Officers Association of the Philippines' General Membership Meeting, 21 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Trust - living through the pandemic Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Trust Officers Association of the Philippines' General Membership Meeting, 21 November 2021. * * * To the directors, officers, and members of the Trust Officers Association of the Philippines, guests, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon! I welcome this opportunity to address the membership of the TOAP once again and touch base on developments since I last spoke at your General Membership Meeting in March of this year. It has now been more than 18 months since the pandemic reached Philippine shores, and all of us – regulators, financial institutions, and clients alike – have learned to adapt to new ways of working, doing business, and living. Economic Performance Things are looking up for the Philippine economy. The country has just recorded two consecutive quarters of growth, following up the 12.0 percent expansion registered in the second quarter of 2021 – the highest growth rate recorded since 1988 – with a 7.1 percent expansion in gross domestic product in the third quarter. Indeed, the third quarter growth surpassed expectations, leading to optimism for a more rapid return to pre-pandemic GDP levels. The economy remains on course to meet the government’s full year growth forecast, which is in the range of 4 to 5 percent Inflation The BSP expects inflation to remain manageable. While headline inflation was at 4.8 percent year-on-year in September, it decelerated to 4.6 percent in October due to lower food inflation. While year-to-date average inflation stands at 4.5 percent, above the target range of 2 to 4 percent, the latest outturn is in line with the BSP’s assessment that inflation will return to within the target range before year-end, then decline towards the midpoint over the next two years. This provides the Bangko Sentral with room to maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance and strongly support sustainable economic recovery. Balance of payments The cumulative balance of payments position for 2021 stood at a deficit of US$665 million by end-September, reversing the surplus recorded in the same period last year. This can be largely attributed to the widening deficit in merchandise trade. The national government also saw its net foreign borrowings decrease. Gross International Reserves Despite recording a month-on-month reduction, the country’s Gross International Reserves remained substantial at US$108 billion. This buffer represents 10.8 months’ worth of import cover. It is also equivalent to about 5.4 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual maturity. Domestic Liquidity 1/6 BIS central bankers' speeches Meanwhile, domestic liquidity is ample. M3 rose by 8.2 percent year-on-year to P14.6 trillion in September 2021. The BSP is paying close attention to the dynamics of liquidity in the financial system with an eye toward supporting demand and economic activity. Remittances Remittances from overseas Filipinos remain a reliable source of support for the economy. After a minimal contraction in 2020, cash remittances have rebounded this year. For the first nine months of the year, OF remittances were 5.6 percent higher than the comparable figure in 2020. Stability of the Banking System The Philippine banking system is strong. Total assets rose to P19.9 trillion as of end-August 2021, and deposits are also on an upward trend, standing at P15.5 trillion. This encourages us to look toward financial intermediation by supervised entities for support for our recovering economy. Banks are well-capitalized. The capital adequacy ratios of the universal and commercial banking industry on solo and consolidated bases improved to 17.0 percent and 17.6 percent, respectively, in the first half of the year. These remain well above the 10.0 percent minimum threshold set by the BSP. Meanwhile, the gross non-performing loan ratio of the system continues to be manageable, standing at 4.5 percent in end-August. The NPL coverage ratio remains high at 83.5 percent, providing confidence in banks’ ability to absorb possible losses. Performance of the Trust Industry The trust industry also continues to grow. After seeing a temporary reduction in the early days of the pandemic, trust assets have rebounded, and have now significantly surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Assets under management recorded a double-digit year-on-year expansion of 18.4 percent, aggregating to P4.8 trillion by end-June 2021. This is equivalent to 24.3 percent of the banking system’s total assets. The related increase in fees and commissions contributed to the sustained profitability of the industry. The net income of trust institutions rose by P1.0 billion or 33.5 percent year-on-year to P3.9 billion. The overall asset mix has been largely unchanged, with funds primarily invested in debt securities, followed by equities and deposits in banks. Nonetheless, we have observed a significant increase in investments in corporate debt and equity securities, which rose year-on-year by 18.8 percent and 39.0 percent, respectively. This is viewed as part of the effort of trust entities to obtain higher yields amid a low interest rate environment. Still, trust assets are highly liquid, with 90.3 percent classified as investments in highly marketable securities and deposits in banks. At the forefront of the trust industry’s growth is the continued surge in participation in unit investment trust funds (UITFs), in terms of both volume and number of participants. 2/6 BIS central bankers' speeches UITF assets grew by 34.1 percent year-on-year to reach P1.3 trillion by end-June 2021. Meanwhile, the number of participants rose by 117.4 percent to almost 1.6 million. The substantial growth in UITFs is a welcome development. The liquidity of UITFs also makes them an appealing investment outlet during these times. The increased online accessibility of UITFs via various digital platforms has certainly contributed to their growth, and we anticipate a continued push in this regard. Policies Under the Trust Business Model Initiative To further the development of the industry, the BSP continues to enhance its regulatory framework for trust entities under the Trust Business Model Initiative. Through the regulatory reforms, which are set to be rolled out in phases, the BSP seeks to emphasize the importance of good governance, effective risk management, and strong consumer protection. The first phase of the Trust Business Model Initiative was rolled out in early 2021, with the amendments to investment management regulations. Circular No. 1109 reduced the minimum amount for opening an investment management account (IMA) and the required investment of each IMA in a commingled account. The lower minimum requirement allows trust entities to tap retail clients seeking returns higher than those of traditional deposit products, thereby increasing the participation of the public in the securities markets. The amendments to the regulations also allow commingled IMAs to invest in a wider range of financial assets. The next phase of the initiative will cover seven areas. Three draft circulars have already been exposed to the trust industry for comments. The first covers the licensing framework for UITFs. The amendments aim to streamline the approval process for UITFs and make it more risk-based. The second provides a common framework for the conduct of accounts review by trust entities. This will help ensure that clients are accorded with the same degree of due diligence regardless of their choice of trustee. The third involves guidelines on the performance measurement of UITFs. This covers the BSP’s expectations on the selection of benchmarks for UITFs, based on the principles of fair representation and full disclosure. These three proposed issuances are now under re-exposure or revision as the BSP considers the comments received. Other policy issuances in the pipeline include comprehensive investment guidelines that will serve as a guidebook on the investment processes for segregated trust accounts, other fiduciary accounts, and investment management accounts. The BSP is also set to amend regulations on onboarding and the client suitability assessment (CSA) process. These amendments will help ensure that onboarding procedures are tailored to clients’ risk profiles regardless of investment mandate. The CSA process will also be expanded to capture the client’s risk tolerance and financial sophistication. Later on, we intend to issue guidance to align the management of UITFs with the International Organization of Securities Commissions’ Principles for the Supervision of Operators of Collective Investment Schemes. 3/6 BIS central bankers' speeches Personal Management Trust regulations will also be amended to clarify supervisory expectations on the process by which trust entities establish the trust purpose and dispositive provisions of such agreements. Policies Under the Trust Business Model Initiative To further the development of the industry, the BSP continues to enhance its regulatory framework for trust entities under the Trust Business Model Initiative. Through the regulatory reforms, which are set to be rolled out in phases, the BSP seeks to emphasize the importance of good governance, effective risk management, and strong consumer protection. The first phase of the Trust Business Model Initiative was rolled out in early 2021, with the amendments to investment management regulations. Circular No. 1109 reduced the minimum amount for opening an investment management account (IMA) and the required investment of each IMA in a commingled account. The lower minimum requirement allows trust entities to tap retail clients seeking returns higher than those of traditional deposit products, thereby increasing the participation of the public in the securities markets. The amendments to the regulations also allow commingled IMAs to invest in a wider range of financial assets. The next phase of the initiative will cover seven areas. Three draft circulars have already been exposed to the trust industry for comments. The first covers the licensing framework for UITFs. The amendments aim to streamline the approval process for UITFs and make it more risk-based. The second provides a common framework for the conduct of accounts review by trust entities. This will help ensure that clients are accorded with the same degree of due diligence regardless of their choice of trustee. The third involves guidelines on the performance measurement of UITFs. This covers the BSP’s expectations on the selection of benchmarks for UITFs, based on the principles of fair representation and full disclosure. These three proposed issuances are now under re-exposure or revision as the BSP considers the comments received. Other policy issuances in the pipeline include comprehensive investment guidelines that will serve as a guidebook on the investment processes for segregated trust accounts, other fiduciary accounts, and investment management accounts. The BSP is also set to amend regulations on onboarding and the client suitability assessment (CSA) process. These amendments will help ensure that onboarding procedures are tailored to clients’ risk profiles regardless of investment mandate. The CSA process will also be expanded to capture the client’s risk tolerance and financial sophistication. Later on, we intend to issue guidance to align the management of UITFs with the International Organization of Securities Commissions’ Principles for the Supervision of Operators of Collective Investment Schemes. Personal Management Trust regulations will also be amended to clarify supervisory expectations on the process by which trust entities establish the trust purpose and dispositive provisions of such agreements. 4/6 BIS central bankers' speeches Broader Regulatory Initiatives On a broader scale, the BSP continues to exert efforts toward the creation of a more responsive and inclusive financial system. Two priority areas in this regard are sustainable finance and digital transformation. In step with the global community, we have increasingly advocated for the wider adoption of sustainable finance in the Philippines. This begins with the integration of sustainability principles into the corporate governance, strategic, and risk management frameworks of our supervised financial institutions. We encourage trust entities to ensure that environmental and social risks are actively considered in your operational risk management systems. The BSP emphasizes the importance of ensuring that funds classified as sustainable are supported by duly differentiated investment strategies. At the minimum, there must be sufficient evaluation of the issuers’ sustainability-related commitments and the sustainable impact of their products. Disclosures regarding sustainable funds should be useful to the decision-making of participants. The objective of investor protection is paramount in this area. Meanwhile, digital transformation is essential in bringing the financial system closer to the people. Last year, the BSP issued the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap for the period 2020 to 2023. The aim is to move toward a cash-lite economy, in which at least 50 percent of the total volume of retail payments is in digital form. The Roadmap likewise involves the onboarding to the formal financial system of at least 70 percent of Filipino adults. This will be done through payment or transaction accounts using digital services. Relatedly, the BSP has issued the Open Finance Framework, which will provide financial institutions and third parties with “permission-based” access to customer information. This is seen to aid in the development of innovative financial products and services suited to the changing needs of Filipino consumers. Increased digitalization of financial transactions can be supported by the wider implementation of the Philippine Identification System, or PhilSys, which can create a unique, verifiable and biometric-based digital identity for every Filipino. The operationalization of the PhilSys electronic Know Your Customer and authentication facility will facilitate the digital onboarding of clients. This transformation is not limited to payment products and services, but also applies to investments and other financial transactions. Indeed, the exponential leap in the number of UITF participants can be largely traced to new investors using digital platforms. The BSP calls on supervised financial institutions to take steps to meet this demand. As technology has advanced, the digital transformation of trust entities’ systems, processes and services has become ever more vital to success. As always, the BSP reminds financial institutions to exercise caution and ensure that your risk management systems and controls remain well-suited to your evolving operations. Industry Initiatives The BSP recognizes the efforts of the TOAP toward the sustainable development of the trust industry. 5/6 BIS central bankers' speeches In particular, we commend the industry for its continuing efforts to implement and enhance the UITF Certification Program or the UCP for UITF marketing personnel. As the certification requirement will be fully implemented by 2023, we enjoin the TOAP to work with its member-institutions to ensure that UITF marketing personnel are able to successfully complete the Program. The BSP views this as a crucial initiative in ascertaining that that these personnel can provide adequate information on UITFs and promote the safe and effective delivery of financial services to clients. We likewise appreciate our collaboration with the TOAP as we work to expand the PERA ecosystem. The initiative to solicit suggestions from member-institutions is welcome, as there is still a long way for PERA to go to reach its full potential. Trust entities are valued stakeholders in this initiative. We strongly encourage TOAP memberinstitutions to develop new products to serve this worthy endeavor. We also look forward to continuing cooperation on PERA information campaigns. In closing, the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way we live, and we find ourselves in a new economy. This reality brings with it a set of challenges, but also new opportunities. One’s ability to thrive depends on how one chooses to act. This situation calls to mind a Chinese proverb, which goes: quote “A wise man adapts himself to circumstances as water shapes itself to the vessel that contains it.“ end quote In a time when the environment is constantly changing, adaptability is undoubtedly the key to success. The BSP strongly encourages the TOAP’s efforts toward the improvement of the skills of trust professionals and the enhancement of systems that will allow member-institutions to be more responsive to the needs of the investing public. Rest assured that the BSP will continue to collaborate with you on creating an environment conducive to financial growth and innovation, toward our common goal of deeper and more inclusive Philippine financial markets. I wish you all a productive two-day TOAP Summit. Thank you. Mabuhay tayong lahat! 6/6 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the TransUnion and FinTech Alliance Webinar, 6 December 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Data-driven road to digital financial inclusion Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the TransUnion and FinTech Alliance Webinar, 6 December 2021. * * * Members of the Fintech Alliance of the Philippines headed by Chairman Lito Villanueva, TransUnion Chief Revenue Officer Jay Tirona, fellow public servants, financial Inclusion partners, and fintech innovators, good afternoon. It is my pleasure to welcome participants to this webinar as we continue to discuss valuable insights and best practices in financial inclusion. The fintech industry is a pioneer in using data-driven strategies that give rise to innovations and enhancements meaningful to the users of financial services – offering accessibility to financial channels, creating user-friendly platforms, and providing reasonable costs, to diverse market segments. Financial regulators likewise utilize data in formulating supervisory and regulatory policies that are responsive to the needs of financial consumers and address the evolving complexities of financial products. For the BSP in particular, the pandemic has strengthened our resolve to promote broad and convenient access to welfare-enhancing financial services for all Filipinos. A lot of work still lies ahead, but the momentum to achieve these goals is now stronger than ever. The BSP is ready to carry the work forward through 2021 and beyond. Financial inclusion is multidimensional, but at its most basic level, it starts with account ownership. Transaction accounts like bank accounts and e-money wallets enable individuals and households to save money; make day-to-day payment transactions; send or receive remittances; and receive salary, benefits, or financial assistance from the government. In this regard, the BSP with its Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap aims to onboard 70% of Filipino adults to the formal financial system through a transaction account by 2023. It is important to recognize however that rather than being an end in itself, financial inclusion is a means to achieve broader aspirations. The regular and continuing use of an account in particular, allows individuals and small businesses to build a rich digital footprint that can unlock access to a wider range of welfare-enhancing financial services. Today, digital technologies provide an opportunity to accelerate financial inclusion. It facilitates efficiencies that make it possible for financial service providers to serve the unbanked and underbanked. Mobile phone and internet usage in the Philippines in fact show that there is significant opportunity to expand the delivery of basic financial services through digital channels. This is especially true considering that 7 in 10 unbanked adults have a mobile phone. Looking at usage trends, 53% of adults use the internet and they use it extensively. On average, people spend 11 hours per day on the internet with 4 hours spent on social media. However, only 9% use the internet for financial transactions. In addition, 69% of adults have mobile phones. Three-fourths of these mobile phone owners own a smartphone. However, only 12% use their phones for financial transactions. While the trends show low adoption of digital finance, its potential can be realized by addressing two key issues: digital literacy and connectivity. Promoting digital literacy increases awareness 1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches and trust in online financial transactions. Internet connectivity is a necessity to access digital products and services. If left unaddressed, literacy and connectivity challenges can lead to new forms of exclusion and greater digital divide. Deliberate efforts to narrow the digital divide on the other hand can increase the reach of financial service providers. The Philippine Identification System (PhilSys) is a game changing reform for accelerated financial inclusion and innovation. As a digital identity system, PhilSys can facilitate seamless financial transactions, particularly account onboarding and user-permissioned data sharing. The BSP is actively supporting PhilSys implementation not only in the production of the PhilID cards but also in the development of high-impact PhilSys use cases in the government and financial sector. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) has done commendable progress as lead implementing agency with 44 million Filipinos completing the biometric and demographic registration, and 3.5 million PhilID cards delivered to date. As we move towards the fourth industrial revolution, data has truly become the new oil and is now the most valuable resource. However, like oil, raw data in and of itself has little value until it is refined and used intentionally. For the financial industry, data is critical because it helps ensure that products and services are appropriately designed and responsive to the varied needs of individuals. To this end, the BSP undertakes initiatives to increase the availability of consumer data. One of which is the implementation of the Open Finance Framework. The framework adopts the principles of consent-driven data portability, interoperability, and collaborative partnerships among incumbent financial institutions and new third-party players. Through open finance, financial institutions will be able to develop a better understanding of customers’ needs and expand market reach. The BSP is set to complete this year the establishment of the Open Finance Oversight Committee, an industry-led self-governing body tasked to formalize selfgovernance structure where industry standards and inter-participant business rules are housed. Another initiative is the development of a centralized database that can be used for risk-based lending to small and medium enterprise (SMEs). The BSP in partnership with the Japan International Cooperation Agency – or JICA – is now building a credit risk database that consolidates financial data from different banks to generate a robust credit scoring model designed for SMEs. The scoring model is intended to enable lenders to accurately assess SME borrowers without relying heavily on collateral. To enrich the knowledge base of the BSP and the financial industry as a whole, the BSP collects data through various surveys. A recent survey that BSP launched in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank is the gender-focused demand-side survey of microenterprises and SMEs (MSMEs). We expect the survey to provide us with a better understanding of MSME access to finance and support evidence-based policymaking. To appreciate the value of data for financial inclusion, we may look at alternative data for credit scoring as a promising use case. One challenge in securing credit is that forecasting creditworthiness traditionally involves analysis of the historical credit exposure of a borrower. However, many Filipino adults and MSMEs do not have or have very little credit history. The use of alternative data in credit scoring is an innovation that addresses the challenge of predicting the creditworthiness of the so called credit invisible. Unlike traditional data which is composed of bank transactional data and credit bureau information, alternative data come in many forms. This includes social media, mobile data, 2/3 BIS central bankers' speeches utilities data, behavioral data, online transactions, geolocation data, and browser data, among others. With alternative data, a more complete picture of the client is painted thus allowing for more individuals and businesses to be assessed. To understand the extent of usage of alternative data in the Philippines, the BSP conducted a rapid survey in September 2021. Through the rapid survey, we were able to affirm that adopters of alternative credit scoring realize tangible benefits. The number one benefit realized by adopters is improved customer profiling followed by improved pricing of loan products and improved competitiveness in the marketplace. The use of alternative data for credit scoring is just one example of how data can be used to benefit consumers. Looking ahead, we must continue to take initiative in fostering an inclusive digital financial ecosystem. To build trust and awareness in digital finance, we need to support financial literacy programs for individuals and MSMEs. It is therefore important to provide education that will generate familiarity to the available services, minimize vulnerability to scams and usage errors, and ensure a positive customer experience. Lastly, we need to advocate for crucial legislation for internet connectivity, digital payments, and consumer protection. The digital divide, as observed in the lack of internet connection of those in the lower income classes and those in the rural areas, bring to the fore the need to continue seeking ways to make internet connection more accessible. In this regard, the BSP actively supported Executive Order 127 on “Expanding the Provision of Internet Services through Inclusive Access to Satellite Services.” To promote the universal use of safe and efficient digital payments, the BSP is actively supporting Senate Bill 1764 or the Use of Digital Payments Act. Through this act, government entities are directed to use digital payments both in collections and disbursements, including account-based distribution of government financial assistance or ayuda. It also supports merchant acceptance of digital payments by directing local government units to adopt incentive frameworks that encourage the use of digital payments. Consumer protection is another area that needs to be prioritized as the unbanked are the most vulnerable to the new threats that digitalization brings. The BSP actively supports the passage of the Financial Consumer Protection Bill which aims to strengthen the rules and regulations protecting financial consumers. In closing, the shift to digital transactions due to the pandemic has presented us an opportunity to extend the reach of financial products and services to the unbanked and underbanked. We must therefore continue working together to take advantage of this opportunity. I am therefore very much eager to see the innovations and collaboration that may emerge from the discussions today. Thank you and good afternoon to everyone! 3/3 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Welcome remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the 6th ASEAN Central Bank Heads of Internal Audit Network Meeting "Internal Audit at the Forefront of Digital Innovation", 16 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Internal audit at the forefront of digital innovation Welcome remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the 6th ASEAN Central Bank Heads of Internal Audit Network Meeting “Internal Audit at the Forefront of Digital Innovation”, 16 November 2021. * * * Distinguished heads of internal audit (IA) and delegates of central banks in the ASEAN Region and the Asian Development Bank, esteemed guest speakers, colleagues from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, ladies and gentlemen, a pleasant day to all. On behalf of the Monetary Board and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, I welcome you all to the 6th ASEAN Central Bank Heads of Internal Audit Network Meeting, which the BSP is hosting for the first time. It is unfortunate that we could not have hosted this meeting in Manila where we can personally meet and welcome you, but I am sure that this virtual conference will be just as engaging and productive. Behind the theme of this year’s meeting, which is aptly entitled “Internal Audit at the Forefront of Digital Innovation”, is a similar novel concept: Digital Darwinism. It revolves around a simple rule: evolve or risk being irrelevant. In the last decade, we have witnessed how technology has dramatically advanced our day-to-day lives. We have also seen how the financial services industry has evolved to offer more customer-centric financial products, leveraging on emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics, among others. The pandemic has further quickened this evolution. If anything, the pandemic has taught us that digitalization is no longer desirable to have, but a must-have. Like other ASEAN nations, the Philippines aims to regain and surpass opportunities lost to the COVID crisis. We want an economy that is stronger and more technologically advanced than ever before. One way of achieving this is through financial digitalization. Going digital, building on it, tailoring it, securing it, and pushing it to new frontiers is imperative if central banks are to be successful in navigating the post-COVID-19 economy. In 2020, the BSP has launched the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap where we aim to achieve two major goals by 2023: First, that at least half of all financial transactions in the country are done digitally; and second, at least 70 percent of Filipino adults have financial accounts. We believe that financial digitalization accelerates income growth and democratizes access to more affordable financial products and services. We have also embraced digital transformation in our internal strategy, highlighting our commitment to being an agile, resilient, and proactive organization. We envision to be a digitally transformed organization driven by a strong digital leadership, an innovative and collaborative culture, a secure and resilient technology infrastructure, and optimized work processes that support data-driven decisions. While we recognize the promising benefits of digitalization, we are also cognizant of its attendant risks. Thus, we also highlight that these efforts are underpinned by sound digital governance, adequate risk management practices, and robust internal controls. 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches Given these developments, it is important for the internal audit function to reposition itself as a strategic partner in driving digital value. The independent view of internal audit continues to be crucial, as it plays a valuable role in complementing the first- and second-line functions by providing assurance and advice on governance, risk management, and controls. Digital transformations are journeys without borders and the possibilities for digital innovation are endless. As central banks embrace change through digitalization, internal audit teams must forge the same trail; reassess perspectives; reimagine audit approaches and methodologies; and tap on reliable technologies to add more value and provide assurance to the organization. I hope that this meeting will provide a meaningful platform for discussing internal audit’s rapidly evolving role in these areas. The shared views, practices and experiences during the sessions will certainly enrich our knowledge and inform our individual and collective digital transformation journey. Thank you and I wish you all a meaningful discussion ahead. 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the 2021 Annual Anti-Money Laundering/Counter Terrorism Financing Summit, hosted by the Anti-Money Laundering Council and Fintelekt, virtual, 21 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: 2021 Annual Anti-Money Laundering/Counter Terrorism Financing Summit Message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the 2021 Annual Anti-Money Laundering/Counter Terrorism Financing Summit, hosted by the Anti-Money Laundering Council and Fintelekt, virtual, 21 November 2021. * * * Welcome to the virtual 2021 Annual Anti-Money Laundering/Counter-Terrorism Financing(AML/CTF) Summit, hosted by the Anti-Money Laundering Council and Fintelekt. It is a pleasure to come together with you as we carry on with the crucial task of fighting and preventing money laundering and terrorism financing. In 2017, the AMLC approved the Second National Risk Assessment – or NRA – Report, covering the years 2015 and 2016, to reinforce the Philippines’ AML/CTF regime. The Second NRA found that the level of national money laundering threat is high, arising from the predicate crimes of drug trafficking; graft and corruption; fraud; tax crimes; smuggling; Intellectual Property Law violations; illegal manufacture and possession of firearms, ammunition, and explosives; and environmental crimes. Banks and money service businesses were identified to be the sectors primarily and widely used by criminals to launder the proceeds of crimes. The level of national money laundering vulnerability, on the other hand, is medium. Casinos have high vulnerability, while money service businesses and pawnshops have mediumhigh vulnerability. The rest of the sector is medium. However, terrorism threat in the Philippines is high. Likewise, terrorism financing vulnerability and terrorism financing threat are both high as such organizations appear to have a systematic and established method of raising funds for their operations. Based on the overall evaluation of factors, the national money laundering and terrorism financing threat is high; while the national money laundering and terrorism financing vulnerability is medium. Thus, the level of money laundering and terrorism financing risk is medium-high. This assessment is definitely a cause for concern, but the AMLC has bolstered and implemented risk-mitigation AML/CTF strategies and initiatives, even in the face of the pandemic. The AMLC continues to protect the integrity of the Philippine financial system pursuant to the Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2001, as amended; the Terrorism Financing Prevention and Suppression Act of 2012; and, just recently, the Anti-Terrorism Act of 2012. Allow me to go over some ongoing initiatives and projects by the AMLC and our partners from the public and private sectors. First. The AMLC is closely coordinating with law enforcers, such as the National Bureau of Investigation and the Philippine National Police, as they are the primary investigators for predicate crimes. For the first eight months of 2021, the AMLC has filed a total of 85 cases, varying from civil and criminal cases and involving over PhP1.31 billion and other assets. Further, the implementation of the National Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism Strategy for 2018 to 2022—or NACS—continues to progress. The NACS is aimed at coordinating efforts of relevant agencies in combating money laundering and terrorism 1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches financing. The NACS has also integrated the International Co-Operation Review Group (ICRG) Action Plan to ensure a whole-of-nation approach in addressing our country’s shortcomings in its AML/CTF system. Second. The AMLC is sharing its studies with law enforcement agencies and partner covered persons to increase awareness of money laundering and terrorism financing typologies and red flags. These risk assessments, strategic studies, and typologies include the following: 1. First, Terrorism and Terrorism Financing Risk Assessment, which is an update of the Second National Risk Assessment, particularly on the understanding and assessment of terrorism and terrorism financing risks; 2. Second, Foreign Terrorist Fighters Study using Suspicious Transaction Reports; 3. Third, Money Service Business: 2021 Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing Sector Risk Assessment, which indicates how certain services and products of MSBs are exploited by criminals to facilitate and expand illegal activities; 4. Fourth, Real Estate Sector: A Money Laundering/Terrorism Financing/Proliferation Financing Assessment, which examines the potential criminal threat environment and vulnerabilities associated with the real estate sector; 5. Fifth, An Assessment of the Philippines’ Exposure to External and Internal Threats Based on Suspicious Transaction Reports for 2018 to 2020, which looks into the country’s risk and exposure to money laundering, terrorism financing, and different predicate offenses by gathering information on the generation, movement, and behavior of illicit funds and by evaluating the threats originating within and outside the country’s jurisdiction; 6. Sixth, An Analysis of Suspicious Transaction Reports with Possible Links to Tax Crimes, which is a study on the potential exposure of the Philippines to tax crimes prior to the inclusion of tax evasion as a predicate offense to money laundering by focusing on selected suspicious transaction reports; and 7. Lastly, Suspicious Transaction Report Quality Review: 2017 to 2020 Data Discovery that covers 2.4 million STRs, which the AMLC received from 2017 to 2020 from covered persons and that aims to provide a trend analysis for the covered periods; assess the technical compliance and investigative value of the STRs; and identify the reporting gaps and challenges of covered persons to provide guidance on how to improve the quality of STRs. Most of these reports are available on the AMLC’s website for the guidance of our stakeholders. The AMLC has also issued several amendments to AML/CTF regulations this year to strengthen the Philippines’ AML/CTF supervisory framework. With a more robust framework in place, improvements in AML/CTF operations are expected, demonstrating the Philippines’ progress toward a more effective AML/CTF regime. By now, we understand that the country’s exit from the list of Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring or the grey list requires commitment and cooperation among the public and private sectors in addressing all 18 ICRG action plan items. Beyond mere compliance, we must grasp that this about fundamentally strengthening our AML/CTF system that would prove beneficial even beyond our lifetimes. And it is through these kinds of conferences, where we are able to synergize various 2/3 BIS central bankers' speeches perspectives and, ultimately, regroup and rethink our strategies in beating the money launderers, terrorists and their financiers, and other criminals at their own game. The AMLC extends its deepest gratitude for your relentless commitment and energy to combat money laundering and terrorism financing and preserve the integrity of the financial system. Thank you. 3/3 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Trust Officers Association of the Philippines' General Membership Meeting, 21 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Trust - living through the pandemic Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Trust Officers Association of the Philippines' General Membership Meeting, 21 November 2021. * * * To the directors, officers, and members of the Trust Officers Association of the Philippines, guests, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon! I welcome this opportunity to address the membership of the TOAP once again and touch base on developments since I last spoke at your General Membership Meeting in March of this year. It has now been more than 18 months since the pandemic reached Philippine shores, and all of us – regulators, financial institutions, and clients alike – have learned to adapt to new ways of working, doing business, and living. Economic Performance Things are looking up for the Philippine economy. The country has just recorded two consecutive quarters of growth, following up the 12.0 percent expansion registered in the second quarter of 2021 – the highest growth rate recorded since 1988 – with a 7.1 percent expansion in gross domestic product in the third quarter. Indeed, the third quarter growth surpassed expectations, leading to optimism for a more rapid return to pre-pandemic GDP levels. The economy remains on course to meet the government’s full year growth forecast, which is in the range of 4 to 5 percent Inflation The BSP expects inflation to remain manageable. While headline inflation was at 4.8 percent year-on-year in September, it decelerated to 4.6 percent in October due to lower food inflation. While year-to-date average inflation stands at 4.5 percent, above the target range of 2 to 4 percent, the latest outturn is in line with the BSP’s assessment that inflation will return to within the target range before year-end, then decline towards the midpoint over the next two years. This provides the Bangko Sentral with room to maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance and strongly support sustainable economic recovery. Balance of payments The cumulative balance of payments position for 2021 stood at a deficit of US$665 million by end-September, reversing the surplus recorded in the same period last year. This can be largely attributed to the widening deficit in merchandise trade. The national government also saw its net foreign borrowings decrease. Gross International Reserves Despite recording a month-on-month reduction, the country’s Gross International Reserves remained substantial at US$108 billion. This buffer represents 10.8 months’ worth of import cover. It is also equivalent to about 5.4 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual maturity. Domestic Liquidity 1/5 BIS central bankers' speeches Meanwhile, domestic liquidity is ample. M3 rose by 8.2 percent year-on-year to P14.6 trillion in September 2021. The BSP is paying close attention to the dynamics of liquidity in the financial system with an eye toward supporting demand and economic activity. Remittances Remittances from overseas Filipinos remain a reliable source of support for the economy. After a minimal contraction in 2020, cash remittances have rebounded this year. For the first nine months of the year, OF remittances were 5.6 percent higher than the comparable figure in 2020. Stability of the Banking System The Philippine banking system is strong. Total assets rose to P19.9 trillion as of end-August 2021, and deposits are also on an upward trend, standing at P15.5 trillion. This encourages us to look toward financial intermediation by supervised entities for support for our recovering economy. Banks are well-capitalized. The capital adequacy ratios of the universal and commercial banking industry on solo and consolidated bases improved to 17.0 percent and 17.6 percent, respectively, in the first half of the year. These remain well above the 10.0 percent minimum threshold set by the BSP. Meanwhile, the gross non-performing loan ratio of the system continues to be manageable, standing at 4.5 percent in end-August. The NPL coverage ratio remains high at 83.5 percent, providing confidence in banks’ ability to absorb possible losses. Performance of the Trust Industry The trust industry also continues to grow. After seeing a temporary reduction in the early days of the pandemic, trust assets have rebounded, and have now significantly surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Assets under management recorded a double-digit year-on-year expansion of 18.4 percent, aggregating to P4.8 trillion by end-June 2021. This is equivalent to 24.3 percent of the banking system’s total assets. The related increase in fees and commissions contributed to the sustained profitability of the industry. The net income of trust institutions rose by P1.0 billion or 33.5 percent year-on-year to P3.9 billion. The overall asset mix has been largely unchanged, with funds primarily invested in debt securities, followed by equities and deposits in banks. Nonetheless, we have observed a significant increase in investments in corporate debt and equity securities, which rose year-on-year by 18.8 percent and 39.0 percent, respectively. This is viewed as part of the effort of trust entities to obtain higher yields amid a low interest rate environment. Still, trust assets are highly liquid, with 90.3 percent classified as investments in highly marketable securities and deposits in banks. At the forefront of the trust industry’s growth is the continued surge in participation in unit investment trust funds (UITFs), in terms of both volume and number of participants. 2/5 BIS central bankers' speeches UITF assets grew by 34.1 percent year-on-year to reach P1.3 trillion by end-June 2021. Meanwhile, the number of participants rose by 117.4 percent to almost 1.6 million. The substantial growth in UITFs is a welcome development. The liquidity of UITFs also makes them an appealing investment outlet during these times. The increased online accessibility of UITFs via various digital platforms has certainly contributed to their growth, and we anticipate a continued push in this regard. Policies Under the Trust Business Model Initiative To further the development of the industry, the BSP continues to enhance its regulatory framework for trust entities under the Trust Business Model Initiative. Through the regulatory reforms, which are set to be rolled out in phases, the BSP seeks to emphasize the importance of good governance, effective risk management, and strong consumer protection. The first phase of the Trust Business Model Initiative was rolled out in early 2021, with the amendments to investment management regulations. Circular No. 1109 reduced the minimum amount for opening an investment management account (IMA) and the required investment of each IMA in a commingled account. The lower minimum requirement allows trust entities to tap retail clients seeking returns higher than those of traditional deposit products, thereby increasing the participation of the public in the securities markets. The amendments to the regulations also allow commingled IMAs to invest in a wider range of financial assets. The next phase of the initiative will cover seven areas. Three draft circulars have already been exposed to the trust industry for comments. The first covers the licensing framework for UITFs. The amendments aim to streamline the approval process for UITFs and make it more risk-based. The second provides a common framework for the conduct of accounts review by trust entities. This will help ensure that clients are accorded with the same degree of due diligence regardless of their choice of trustee. The third involves guidelines on the performance measurement of UITFs. This covers the BSP’s expectations on the selection of benchmarks for UITFs, based on the principles of fair representation and full disclosure. These three proposed issuances are now under re-exposure or revision as the BSP considers the comments received. Other policy issuances in the pipeline include comprehensive investment guidelines that will serve as a guidebook on the investment processes for segregated trust accounts, other fiduciary accounts, and investment management accounts. The BSP is also set to amend regulations on onboarding and the client suitability assessment (CSA) process. These amendments will help ensure that onboarding procedures are tailored to clients’ risk profiles regardless of investment mandate. The CSA process will also be expanded to capture the client’s risk tolerance and financial sophistication. Later on, we intend to issue guidance to align the management of UITFs with the International Organization of Securities Commissions’ Principles for the Supervision of Operators of Collective Investment Schemes. 3/5 BIS central bankers' speeches Personal Management Trust regulations will also be amended to clarify supervisory expectations on the process by which trust entities establish the trust purpose and dispositive provisions of such agreements. Broader Regulatory Initiatives On a broader scale, the BSP continues to exert efforts toward the creation of a more responsive and inclusive financial system. Two priority areas in this regard are sustainable finance and digital transformation. In step with the global community, we have increasingly advocated for the wider adoption of sustainable finance in the Philippines. This begins with the integration of sustainability principles into the corporate governance, strategic, and risk management frameworks of our supervised financial institutions. We encourage trust entities to ensure that environmental and social risks are actively considered in your operational risk management systems. The BSP emphasizes the importance of ensuring that funds classified as sustainable are supported by duly differentiated investment strategies. At the minimum, there must be sufficient evaluation of the issuers’ sustainability-related commitments and the sustainable impact of their products. Disclosures regarding sustainable funds should be useful to the decision-making of participants. The objective of investor protection is paramount in this area. Meanwhile, digital transformation is essential in bringing the financial system closer to the people. Last year, the BSP issued the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap for the period 2020 to 2023. The aim is to move toward a cash-lite economy, in which at least 50 percent of the total volume of retail payments is in digital form. The Roadmap likewise involves the onboarding to the formal financial system of at least 70 percent of Filipino adults. This will be done through payment or transaction accounts using digital services. Relatedly, the BSP has issued the Open Finance Framework, which will provide financial institutions and third parties with “permission-based” access to customer information. This is seen to aid in the development of innovative financial products and services suited to the changing needs of Filipino consumers. Increased digitalization of financial transactions can be supported by the wider implementation of the Philippine Identification System, or PhilSys, which can create a unique, verifiable and biometric-based digital identity for every Filipino. The operationalization of the PhilSys electronic Know Your Customer and authentication facility will facilitate the digital onboarding of clients. This transformation is not limited to payment products and services, but also applies to investments and other financial transactions. Indeed, the exponential leap in the number of UITF participants can be largely traced to new investors using digital platforms. The BSP calls on supervised financial institutions to take steps to meet this demand. As technology has advanced, the digital transformation of trust entities’ systems, processes and services has become ever more vital to success. As always, the BSP reminds financial institutions to exercise caution and ensure that your risk management systems and controls remain well-suited to your evolving operations. Industry Initiatives 4/5 BIS central bankers' speeches The BSP recognizes the efforts of the TOAP toward the sustainable development of the trust industry. In particular, we commend the industry for its continuing efforts to implement and enhance the UITF Certification Program or the UCP for UITF marketing personnel. As the certification requirement will be fully implemented by 2023, we enjoin the TOAP to work with its member-institutions to ensure that UITF marketing personnel are able to successfully complete the Program. The BSP views this as a crucial initiative in ascertaining that that these personnel can provide adequate information on UITFs and promote the safe and effective delivery of financial services to clients. We likewise appreciate our collaboration with the TOAP as we work to expand the PERA ecosystem. The initiative to solicit suggestions from member-institutions is welcome, as there is still a long way for PERA to go to reach its full potential. Trust entities are valued stakeholders in this initiative. We strongly encourage TOAP memberinstitutions to develop new products to serve this worthy endeavor. We also look forward to continuing cooperation on PERA information campaigns. In closing, the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way we live, and we find ourselves in a new economy. This reality brings with it a set of challenges, but also new opportunities. One’s ability to thrive depends on how one chooses to act. This situation calls to mind a Chinese proverb, which goes: quote “A wise man adapts himself to circumstances as water shapes itself to the vessel that contains it.“ end quote In a time when the environment is constantly changing, adaptability is undoubtedly the key to success. The BSP strongly encourages the TOAP’s efforts toward the improvement of the skills of trust professionals and the enhancement of systems that will allow member-institutions to be more responsive to the needs of the investing public. Rest assured that the BSP will continue to collaborate with you on creating an environment conducive to financial growth and innovation, toward our common goal of deeper and more inclusive Philippine financial markets. 5/5 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Year-End Market Forum for Maybank Philippines' 25th Anniversary Launch, 23 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Sustainability in investing Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Year-End Market Forum for Maybank Philippines' 25th Anniversary Launch, 23 November 2021. * * * To Finance Secretary Carlos P. Dominguez National Economic and Development Authority Undersecretary Rosemarie Edillon; Ms. Puan Fauziah Hisam, Chairperson of Maybank Philippines Incorporated; Ms. Abigail Del Rosario, President and CEO of Maybank Philippines Incorporated; Chua Hak Bin of Maybank Kim Eng Singapore; guests, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. I am honored to be here at the Year-End Market Forum for Maybank Philippines’ 25th Anniversary Launch. Since Maybank opened its doors in the country in November 1997, the bank’s network has grown to over 60 branches nationwide. Through your corporate social responsibility initiatives and various community and sustainability programs, you were able to demonstrate Maybank’s brand of humanizing financial services. BSP commends Maybank’s sustainability initiatives. We recognize the Maybank Group’s long-term commitments launched in July 2021, including the mobilization of 50 billion Malaysian Ringgit in sustainable finance by 2025, carbon neutral position by 2030, and net-zero position by 2050. We also commend the bank’s governance reforms reflecting its desire to integrate sustainability principles in its corporate structure. As banks take on the “green and sustainable” path, BSP provides the enabling regulatory environment to drive sustainable finance in the country. BSP is also leading by example. We endeavor to embed sustainability principles in everything we do as an institution, as guided by BSP’s Sustainable Central Banking Program. This program underscores the essential roles of the BSP as an enabler, mobilizer, and doer. As an ENABLER, BSP provides policies and structures that will support and facilitate sustainable finance. In this respect, we have issued the Sustainable Finance and Environmental and Social Risk Management Frameworks. Released in April 2020, the Sustainable Finance Framework highlights the overarching principles of integrating sustainability and ESG considerations in banks’ corporate and risk governance frameworks, business strategies and operations. This Framework also underscores the responsibilities of the board of directors in institutionalizing sustainability principles within the organization. Supplementary to this is the Environmental and Social Risk Management Framework. This framework gives more detailed supervisory expectations on the management of environmental and social risks in the context of credit and operational risks. Among these expectations are the gradual increase of loan portfolio allocation for green or sustainable activities or projects, and the consideration of environmental and social risks in the 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches banks’ operational risk management framework. These frameworks set the essential groundwork in promoting sustainable finance and serve as anchors for succeeding BSP’s policy issuances. Both frameworks will kick into effect by 2023. As a MOBILIZER, the BSP leads and inspires its supervised financial institutions to make environmentally and socially responsible business decisions. We have started integrating sustainability principles in our investment process with over USD 550 million investment in the Green Bond Fund managed by the Bank for International Settlements. We are also reviewing our investment strategy to consider strategic allocation of investments toward those that espouse environmental, social, and governance principles. Several Philippine banks have already started participating in the growing green, social, and sustainability bond market. Latest figures show that those banks have issued green, social, and sustainability bonds totalling USD 1.15 billion and PHP 85.4 billion in both foreign and local currency denominated bonds, respectively. Amid the pandemic, two banks issued social bonds worth approximately PHP 29 billion to finance or refinance the needs of eligible micro, small, and medium enterprises. Issuances by Philippine companies, including banks, reached USD 4.8 billion or 28 percent of the total ASEANlabelled Green, Social, and Sustainability Bonds as of end-October 2021. Climate-proofing the financial system provides growth opportunities for banks such as Maybank. Just recently, we witnessed the landmark climate summit unfold at COP26 in Glasgow. The world’s financial leaders committed to fund the shift to reduce carbon emissions. Private capital was also pledged through the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero toward the transition to a net-zero economy. Accordingly, the latest Philippine Energy Plan targets 50 thousand megawatts of renewable energy under a clean energy scenario by 2040, or equivalent to 54.3 percent of the total energy mix. In line with this, banks, like Maybank, should start investing in sustainable financial products and services as contribution in achieving the country’s carbon emission reduction targets. Another opportunity is the introduction of other innovative sustainable financial products to fund the post COVID-19 recovery of the MSMEs and agricultural sectors, which were greatly hit by the pandemic. We believe that these opportunities complement the Maybank Group’s long-term sustainability goals. As I end my presentation, let me assure that the BSP will remain steadfast in leading sustainability principles in the banking sector, in line with our national aspirations for sustainable development. Congratulations to Maybank Philippines Incorporated on your silver anniversary. Thank you and Mabuhay! 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 76th Philippine Institute of Certified Public Accountants Annual Convention, 24 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Leadership talk - transformation amidst changes and challenges Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 76th Philippine Institute of Certified Public Accountants Annual Convention, 24 November 2021. * * * Members of the Philippine Institute of Certified Public Accountants led by National President Marydith C. Miguel, guests, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon Thank you for inviting me to share my thoughts on the topic “Transformation Amidst Changes and Challenges.” Throughout the COVID-19 crisis, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has been leading positive transformation for the banking system and the overall economy. In doing so, we observe four principles represented by the acronym “FIRE”—Flexibility, Inclusivity, Responsiveness, and Excellence. Before I expound on these four principles, let me first briefly discuss latest macroeconomic developments to provide context on the environment banks currently operate in. The economy is well into the recovery process. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 12.0 percent in the second quarter and 7.1 percent in the third quarter of this year. The unemployment rate improved from the peak of 17.6 percent in April last year to 8.9 percent in September this year. Inflation decelerated to 4.6 percent last October, bringing the average in the first 10 months of this year to 4.5 percent. While this is above the target band of 2.0 to 4.0 percent—driven by supply issues concerning food and energy items—central bank estimates show that inflation will ease toward the midpoint of the target range next year and in 2023. The country’s gross international reserves (GIR) remain hefty at $107.9 billion as of end-October this year, equivalent to 10.8 months’ worth of imports. The peso averaged P50.1/$1 in the third quarter of 2021, depreciating by four percent from the second quarter average of P48.2/$1. This is not a concern as the country enjoys robust external accounts, and the peso depreciation was driven in part by rising imports of capital goods—a sign of rising investments. The positive macroeconomic developments are in sync with the latest financial sector indicators. As of end-September, the Philippine banking system’s assets grew year-on-year by 7.2 percent, deposits by 8.8 percent, loan portfolio by 2.6 percent, and net profit by 35.0 percent. Moreover, non-performing loans remain manageable, capitalization stays above the regulatory requirement, and liquidity is ample. Following the government’s recent shift in strategy to contain COVID-19—from imposing widearea lockdowns to granular quarantines—there has been a substantial improvement in the country’s COVID situation. 1/4 BIS central bankers' speeches Daily confirmed cases stood at 1,297 last November 18, significantly down from the peak of 26,303 last September 11. Against this backdrop, we expect the economy’s recovery to gain more traction. Now let me go back to F.I.R.E. First, F for Flexibility. The importance of flexibility—the ability to adapt and evolve—has come to fore in efforts to survive and thrive in the crisis. As far as the BSP is concerned, we exhibited flexibility by implementing unorthodox measures to ensure ample liquidity and maintain financial stability at a critical time. We extended short-term loans and remitted dividends in advance to the National Government to support its COVID-relief measures. We started purchasing government securities in the secondary market. We were also flexible enough to temporarily relax some regulations. The relief afforded to banks encouraged them to help their hard-hit customers as well. For instance, the BSP’s move to count loans extended to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) as part of banks’ compliance to the reserve requirement, to lower risk weights for certain MSME loans, and to allow staggered booking of loan losses gave incentive for banks to lend. As we recover from the crisis, focus will shift from trying to survive the crisis to navigating the uncertainties of the recovery and post-crisis periods. Individuals, organizations, and economies that are able to seize opportunities from the crisis and adapt will be the champions of tomorrow. This is a solid example of flexibility. This brings me to BSP’s key agenda: The Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap that we launched last year. The Roadmap envisions a cash-lite economy where 50 percent of financial transactions are done digitally by 2023. Last year, we saw a leap in digital payments to 20 percent of total financial transactions in the country versus only 1 percent in 2013. Let me proceed to the next principle: I for Inclusivity. An inclusive economy is one where everyone experiences the benefits of growth; it is one where economic development translates to poverty reduction. The challenge for leaders is to ensure that the benefits of economic recovery is equitable, such that opportunities are created and benefit all segments of society. Under its Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap, the BSP also targets at least 70 percent of Filipino adults to be have transaction accounts by 2023. The BSP has issued enabling regulations and rolled out programs to achieve our goals under the roadmap. For instance, the Digital Banking Framework issued in November last year spells out regulatory guidelines on how to operate digital banks in the country. Now, we already have 6 licensed digital banks. The BSP has also issued the Open Finance Framework, which provides guidelines on consent2/4 BIS central bankers' speeches driven use of customer data for the creation of financial products and services that cater to a wide range of customer needs. We have rolled out a program promoting expanded use of QR codes for payments. The BSP is also actively involved in the Philippine Identification System (Philsys) to allow underserved Filipinos to open transaction accounts and enter the formal financial system. Moving on to the next principle: R for Responsiveness. Responsiveness is demonstrated by the speed and scale by which an individual, organization, or economy addresses a difficult situation head on. In relation to this, the BSP was among the first central banks in the world to respond to the crisis. As early as February 2020, the BSP already cut its policy rates by 25 basis points to provide initial support to the economy. Still on speed, the Financial Institutions Strategic Transfer (FIST) Act was signed into law last February and the BSP issued its implementing regulations in May this year—even as banks’ bad debts remain manageable to date. The FIST law is a pre-emptive measure to ensure banking sector stability in case of significant spike in loan defaults. On scale, the BSP has done quite a lot to respond to the crisis. We have so far injected Php2.3 trillion in liquidity to the financial system, equivalent to 12.8 percent of GDP (as of 14 October 2021). Another key facet of the BSP’s responsiveness is our push for sustainable finance. The BSP, in April 2020, issued the Sustainable Finance Framework. The framework was the first phase of regulations on sustainable finance. With enabling regulations, as well as capacity building and awareness programs of the BSP, we are seeing banks lean toward sustainable financing. Finally, E is for Excellence. Excellence requires mastery and commitment in all aspects of professional practice. The very same tenet requires us, central bankers, to master our craft and continually improve our competencies. In the BSP, we capitalize on programs to attract, develop, and retain talent. We have relentlessly pursued excellence through competency trainings, scholarship programs, and mentoring arrangements. We also leverage on digital technologies and data analytics for decision making and continuing education of our employees. In the same way, the BSP endeavors to embed a culture of excellence and good governance among supervised financial institutions. CPAs are a big part of this. CPAs play an important role in promoting transparency in financial reporting and in reinforcing market discipline. Thus, it is paramount to know the best practices in accounting and auditing, and the latest regulatory developments. 3/4 BIS central bankers' speeches You must be abreast of the latest on Philippine Financial Reporting Standards, Basel reforms, digital transformation, and sustainability, among other important topics. Last July, members of the Financial Sector Forum (FSF)—comprised of the BSP, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Insurance Commission, and the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation—entered into a memorandum of agreement with the Professional Regulatory Board of Accountancy on the establishment of a “one-stop-shop” framework for accreditation of external auditors. This goes to show how regulators value your role in the economy, and we expect all of you in PICPA to be our partners in the pursuit of economic recovery and growth by consistently observing the highest level of professionalism. As CPAs in your respective industries, being flexible in your action plans to surmount the current headwinds and work toward an inclusive, long-term growth will help you and your organization take full advantage of the possibilities awaiting at the close of this health crisis. Rest assured, the BSP will always be a partner in pursuing advocacies that promote the development of the accountancy profession. We count on PICPA and its members in helping safeguard the soundness of financial institutions and the financial system. Again, congratulations on your 76th Annual National Convention and I wish everyone a productive discussion ahead. 4/4 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Economic Briefing for the Joint Foreign Chambers, 25 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Monetary policy and central banking toward a new economy Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Economic Briefing for the Joint Foreign Chambers, 25 November 2021. * * * To our colleagues in the Philippine government, members of foreign chambers, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. I recall I last spoke before the joint foreign chambers in July this year. I am pleased to speak before you again, this time, amidst better circumstances, as recent macroeconomic developments point to a strong and sustainable recovery for the Philippine economy. I always say that while monetary policy only plays a complementary role in addressing the impact of this health crisis, it is a critical one. As such, the BSP has done quite a lot to support economic recovery. We are among the first central banks to respond to the pandemic. We cut policy rates to record lows and reduced the reserve requirement. As of October 14, 2021, BSP has injected ₱2.3 trillion – approximately USD46 billion – into the Philippine financial system. This is equivalent to 12.8 percent of GDP. We also implemented extraordinary measures, including provisional advances to the national government and purchase of government securities in the secondary market. The BSP also implemented time-specific and well-targeted regulatory relief measures to enable our supervised financial institutions to continue supporting the domestic economy. Once full recovery of the economy is underway, the BSP will implement a pre-planned exit strategy which shall safeguard the sustainability of the economic recovery while guarding against any emerging threats to the BSP’s price and financial stability objectives. As BSP keeps policy rates low and maintains accommodative policy stance, it has been observed that banks pass on lower and declining interest rates to their clients. Our efforts to help safeguard livelihood, maintain order in the financial markets, and fuel growth are yielding positive results. Following the 12.0-percent rebound in the second quarter, our third-quarter growth rate of 7.1 percent was among the highest in the ASEAN. The nascent economic recovery is being supported by positive developments on the monetary, external and banking fronts. Inflation is decelerating as food prices decline. Looking ahead, inflation could settle above the 2 to 4 percent target range this year but is expected to revert to our target range in 2022 and 2023. The BSP will continue to closely monitor all risks to future inflation. We will remain vigilant against the emergence of second round effects and any possible unhinging of inflation expectations. 1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches Meanwhile, bank lending has started to recover amid ample liquidity, as well as the improvement in consumer outlook and business sentiment. Non-performing loans of the banking system have risen to 4.43 percent but remain within manageable levels. The operationalization of the FIST Act will allow financial institutions to unload their nonperforming assets and as a result, enhance their capability to provide financial services to productive sectors of the economy. Despite the increase in NPLs, the banking system remains well-capitalized. Our external payments position remains strong with sufficient buffers. The foreign exchange liberalization reforms that we implemented amidst the pandemic highlight our confidence on the resilience of our external payments position. They also showcase our efforts to promote greater ease in the use of FX resources of the banking system, and to further promote an environment conducive to businesses. This opinion is shared by relevant third-party observers. Throughout the pandemic—amid a wave of rating downgrades worldwide—the Philippines maintained its investment grade credit ratings. Beyond the short-term challenges of the pandemic, credit rating analysts say that sound fundamentals and policies will help the Philippines return to a sustainable growth path once the dust settles. While the pandemic temporarily disrupted the Philippines’ growth momentum, it also presented opportunities to accelerate digitalization in the financial sector. To this end, we launched the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap last year. Under this, we target half of financial transactions to be done electronically and 70 percent of Filipino adults to have financial accounts by 2023. To further accelerate our digitalization initiatives, BSP has approved the license of six digital-only banks. We expect these digital banks to have a strong start as they capitalize on the growing demand for cross-border digital remittances from the large overseas Filipino workforce across Asia and the Middle East. With physical distancing now a norm, we have seen substantial increase in transactions in PESONet and InstaPay. Looking beyond the country’s borders, the BSP and the Monetary Authority of Singapore recently signed an enhanced FinTech Cooperation Agreement to facilitate interoperable payments between the Philippines and Singapore. The BSP intends to pursue similar arrangements with other monetary authorities in the ASEAN region. As we build our digital finance ecosystem, we encourage foreign investors who may bring advanced technologies and technical expertise to take advantage of untapped potentials in the financial services space and be our partners in achieving our economic growth and financial inclusion objectives. 2/3 BIS central bankers' speeches In closing, I would like to highlight the following: First, the Philippines’ macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound. Together with carefully thought-out policy and public health responses and the sustained vaccine rollout, these will carry the Philippine economy toward sustainable recovery. Second, targeted fiscal support remains central to the COVID-19 response. Monetary policy will remain accommodative until domestic demand and overall macroeconomic activity recovers, as the BSP keeps in mind its price and financial stability objectives. And third, the BSP continues to support reforms aimed at raising the country’s competitiveness and transforming the financial landscape so that it is future-ready through digitalization and adopting sustainability principles. Thank you very much for your attention. 3/3 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Asian Development Bank Institute Forum, 25 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ monetary policy - insights from the pandemic Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Asian Development Bank Institute Forum, 25 November 2021. * * * Good day, everyone. In the wake of the slowdown in COVID cases and progress in vaccine rollout, the Philippines has eased most mobility restrictions, and things are slowly but steadily going back to normal. We at the Philippine central bank are focused on sustaining this road to recovery. At the same time, we are working on implementing a well-calibrated exit strategy that is consistent with our price and financial stability objectives. In response to the crisis, we introduced extraordinary liquidity-enhancing measures to boost economic activity by supporting domestic demand, and to keep the financial system in order by managing possible pandemic spillovers to the financial system. First were measures to boost market confidence, such as cuts in the policy rate and the reserve requirement. Lower policy rate was meant to influence banks to cut their own lending rates, thereby promoting credit-taking activities. Meanwhile, lower reserve requirement increased the volume of loanable funds. At the same time, the BSP’s active monetary operations have been calibrated in terms of size to keep short-term market interest rates low and support the effective transmission of the monetary stance to key financial variables. These monetary policy measures have helped support domestic demand. With GDP growing at 12.0 percent in the second quarter and 7.1 percent in the third quarter of this year, we can say that the economy is well into the recovery process. The effectiveness of interventions is evident in the sustained decline in domestic market interest rates, which have decreased in parallel with the BSP’s policy rate. For example, the average interbank call loan rate of 1.7 percent (as of October 2021) represents a 222-basis point decline relative to January 2020. Similarly, the 91-day T-bill rate as of September 2021 fell by more than 200 basis points over the same period. Bank lending growth is also picking up. Preliminary data show that the outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks, net of RRP placements with the BSP, rose by 2.7 percent year-on-year in September 2021, which was faster than the 1.3-percent expansion in August. The increase in loans reflects the modest recovery in banks’ overall lending attitudes along with improved economic prospects owing to the gradual lifting of lockdown measures. Outstanding loans for production activities was mainly driven by the expansion in loans for real estate (7.2 percent), information and communication (26.6 percent), financial and insurance (6.0 percent), and manufacturing (4.4 percent). We see loan activity continuing to improve in the coming months as public health restrictions are gradually eased and domestic demand gains further traction. Looking ahead, the central bank will remain patient in keeping policy support available to the 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches economy—particularly given the continued downside risks to economic activity associated with the pandemic. The inflation outlook over the policy horizon remains manageable. Average inflation is seen to slightly exceed the upper end of the target band of 2-4 percent this year but is projected to settle close to the midpoint of the target range in 2022 and 2023. Inflation expectations remain firmly anchored to the baseline projection path. But we are ready to adjust policy settings as needed to ensure the fulfillment of its price and financial stability mandates. We aim a smooth normalization of our time-bound pandemic measures. Monetary policy settings will be outcome-based rather than anchored on a particular date. Consistent with such approach, we will remain guided primarily by the outturns in economic data, such as inflation, real sector activity, and liquidity and credit conditions. I will end here. 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Joint Foreign Chambers of the Philippines 10th Anniversary Forum "Arangkada Philippines; Pathways to a Better Future", virtual, 30 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Economic and financial developments and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ policy responses Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Joint Foreign Chambers of the Philippines 10th Anniversary Forum “Arangkada Philippines; Pathways to a Better Future”, virtual, 30 November 2021. * * * Officers and members of AmCham Philippines and the Joint Foreign Chambers of the Philippines, my fellow speakers, everyone who are with us virtually, good morning. Thank you for inviting me to deliver a keynote address in your Tenth Anniversary Forum entitled “Arangkada Philippines: Pathways to a Better Future.” Arangkada comes from the Spanish word arrancada which means accelerate. My talk will focus on economic and financial developments and BSP policy responses to ensure that the Philippine economy will continue to accelerate towards a better future. After five quarters of economic contractions, the country’s real GDP grew by 12 percent in the second quarter of 2021 followed by a 7.1 percent growth in the third quarter. For the first three quarters of 2021, the Philippines’ economic growth averaged at 4.9 percent, within the government’s target of 4 to 5 percent for the year. In September 2021, however, the country’s unemployment rate increased further to 8.9 percent from 8.1 percent in the previous month. This result is not surprising, given the extension of strict lockdown measures during the month. What is notable here, however, is that some of the jobs lost at the start of the pandemic have been gradually recovered, with the number of workers employed in September exceeding that of pre-pandemic level. The re-imposition of stricter lockdown measures, particularly in the National Capital Region, contributed to lower business confidence in the third quarter survey, although businesses are more optimistic for the last quarter of the year and in the next 12 months. On the other hand, consumer sentiment continues to improve due to expectations of availability of more jobs, additional or higher income, and effective government policies and programs, particularly in addressing COVID-19-related concerns. The country’s year-on-year headline inflation decreased further to 4.6 percent in October 2021 from 4.8 percent in September, bringing the year-to-date average inflation to 4.5 percent. This is above the Government’s inflation target of 3.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point for 2021. Based on latest data, we expect point inflation for November to range from 3.3 to 4.1 percent. The latest CPI outturn is consistent with the BSP projections that while inflation could remain elevated in the near term, it would start to fall within the target range by the end of the year. Meanwhile, inflation expectations remain firmly aligned with the baseline projection path for 20222023. Results of the BSP’s survey of private sector economists for November 2021 showed an elevated mean inflation forecast of 4.4 percent for 2021, 3.5 percent for 2022 and 3.2 percent for 2023. Liquidity in the financial system remains ample, expanding by 8.2 percent year-on-year in September 2021. This was faster than the 6.9-percent growth recorded in August on a monthon-month seasonally adjusted basis, M3 rose by 1.3 percent. Credit activity increased 2.7 percent in September 2021, faster than the 1.3-percent expansion in August. The continued growth for the second month in outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks reflects the modest recovery in banks’ overall lending attitudes along with 1/4 BIS central bankers' speeches improved economic prospects. As of end-September 2021, gross non-performing loan ratio of the Philippine banking system (PBS) stood at 4.4 percent, higher compared to 3.5 percent a year ago. The uptick, however, was accompanied by loan-loss provisioning with a non-performing loans coverage ratio of 84.4 percent. The Philippine banking system remains well-capitalized. As of the second quarter of 2021, its capital adequacy ratio is at 17.2 percent, well above the 10 percent minimum threshold set by the BSP and the 8 percent set by the Bank for International Settlements. On the external front. The sustained rebound in key economies has spurred external demand. The country’s exports and imports of goods increased by 21.3 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively. Cash remittances from overseas Filipinos grew by 5.6 percent in January to September 2021, from a 1.4 percent contraction in the same period in 2020. Meanwhile, business process outsourcing services in the first half of 2021 remained strong despite the disruption in business activities around the world. Net foreign direct investments for the first eight months of 2021 increased due to positive foreign investor sentiment on the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals and strong growth prospects. The country’s outstanding external debt also remains at a prudent level as its ratio to GDP slightly eased to 26.5 percent in end-June 2021. Notably, a large portion of the country’s external debt has medium- and long-term maturity profile and carry fixed interest rates. These two factors make the servicing of foreign debt less susceptible to volatilities in global interest rates or foreign exchange fluctuations. The gross international reserves stood at US$108 billion as of October. This is equivalent to almost 11 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. The conventional wisdom is that 3 months’ worth of imports is sufficient. The GIR level is also about 7.8 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity, and 5.4 times based on residual maturity. The gross international reserves continue to be augmented by improving inflows of cash remittances from overseas workers and receipts from business process outsourcing. On MSMEs: The BSP recognizes the crucial role of micro, small, and medium enterprises in the Philippine economy. Let me discuss the wide range of policies and regulatory and relief measures that the BSP has deployed to support MSMEs. - One is allowing the new peso-denominated loans to MSMEs and critically impacted large enterprises that do not belong to a conglomerate as eligible instruments for compliance with the BSP’s reserve requirement. The use of MSME loans as allowable alternative compliance with the reserve requirement shall be available to banks and non-bank financial institutions with quasibanking functions from 24 April 2020 to 29 December 2022, subject to early closure of the eligibility window by the Monetary Board, if warranted and with prior notice. - For the week ending 31 October 2021, the banking system allocated an average of P202.2 billion loans for MSMEs as alternative compliance with the reserve requirements. This level marks a substantial increase from the P8.7 billion average MSME loans that were reported for the week ending 30 April 2020. The latest level is equivalent to 13.6 percent of the total required reserves, from 0.6 percent on 30 April 2020. - The Monetary Board also approved prudential measures to assist MSMEs. The regulatory capital treatment of MSME exposures was amended to temporarily reduce the risk weights of 2/4 BIS central bankers' speeches loans granted to MSMEs. The implementation of the revised risk-based capital framework for banks was also deferred from end-2021 to end-2022 - The period of relief on the reporting of past due and non-performing loans of borrowers affected by the pandemic was also extended to 31 December 2021 from the original timeline of 8 March 2021 subject to reporting to the BSP. - These policy issuances reinforce earlier pronouncements of the BSP that relax the Know-YourCustomer requirements for retail clients to facilitate their access to formal financing channels. Given a manageable inflation path, the BSP has kept the key policy interest rate at 2.0 percent in its latest Monetary Board meeting. The BSP’s policy and liquidity-easing measures have injected into the financial system a total liquidity equivalent to around 13 percent of the country’s full year nominal gross domestic product for 2020 as of November 11, 2021. Moving forward, the BSP’s actions and policy thrusts will continue to be anchored on its core mandates of promoting price and financial stability. Towards this end, the BSP will continue to pursue appropriate policy actions responsive to the needs of the time. On monetary policy: the BSP will remain vigilant over the current inflation dynamics to ensure that the monetary policy stance continues to support economic recovery to the extent that the inflation outlook would allow. It will carefully scan the operating environment with a forwardlooking perspective to move in a pre-emptive fashion to address any risks to our price stability mandate. On the financial sector: the BSP will intensify its monitoring and surveillance over its supervised institutions to ensure that they remain resilient to emerging risks and continue to be sound, stable, and inclusive, particularly through the pursuit of enhanced digitization. Finally, on the external sector: the BSP will remain supportive of policies that will help strengthen the economy’s resilience to external shocks, including that of maintaining a market-determined exchange rate, keeping a comfortable level of reserves, and keeping the country’s external debt manageable. More recently, the country has managed to successfully reduce the number of COVID-19 cases. As of the other day, the Philippines logged 425 new COVID-19 cases. This is the lowest since July 2020. Considering the recent economic developments and significant improvement in vaccine rollout, we are optimistic that there is sufficient support for the country’s recovery this year and in the near term. The management of risks through the calibrated reimposition of lockdown restrictions, the expected revitalization of key industries due to government policy support and structural reforms, and an improving global economy should help the Philippine economy to recover in 2021 and accelerate in 2022. Finally, allow me to end my presentation with these key points: • The country’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound. • The latest GDP growth suggests that economic rebound is underway. Strong growth is expected in 2022. o The currently elevated inflation is due to transitory factors. Inflation remains well-anchored. o Banks remain sound and while non-performing loans has increased, banks remain highly capitalized. 3/4 BIS central bankers' speeches o External position is strong, supported by more than adequate external liquidity buffer and improving inflows from overseas Filipinos’ remittances and receipts from business process outsourcing. o Economic activity is vastly improving. Yet, the overall momentum of the economic recovery remains foggy as long as a big part of the population remains unvaccinated and there is still a possible emergence of more virulent variants. Nevertheless, the sustained implementation of targeted fiscal initiatives, as well as the acceleration of the vaccination program, should help boost market confidence and economic recovery. The BSP is committed to an accommodative monetary policy stance supportive of infusing liquidity in the financial system and recovery of the economy. The BSP’s actions and policy thrusts will continue to be anchored on its core mandates of promoting price and financial stability. Thank you. 4/4 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the HSBC "ASEAN Next – Dialogue on Digital Banks", 30 November 2021.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Financial digitalization - harnessing potentials for a better post-Covid Philippine economy Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the HSBC “ASEAN Next – Dialogue on Digital Banks”, 30 November 2021. * * * Ladies and gentlemen, a pleasant day to all of you. I thank HSBC for inviting me to speak in your “ASEAN Next—Dialogue on Digital Banks”. The COVID-19 crisis has brought enormous challenges for economies worldwide. We at the central bank are harnessing the potentials of financial technology to help achieve full recovery and realize a stronger post-COVID Philippine economy. Following the 12.0-percent rebound in the second quarter, the economy grew by 7.1 percent, the highest among ASEAN nations. The further de-escalation of alert level and easing of mobility restrictions nationwide, but especially in the National Capital Region, would help restore jobs in the last quarter of this year. Based on Google mobility, we continue to see significant progress in mobility versus last year. The economic recovery is being supported by positive developments on the monetary, external and banking fronts. Price movement is manageable, providing an enabling environment for pickup in consumption and investments. Looking ahead, inflation could settle above the 2 to 4 percent target this year on account of supply-side pressures but is expected to revert to the target range in 2022 and 2023. External trade has recovered. From January to September, exports grew by 18 percent, while imports grew by 30.3 percent. Meanwhile, foreign direct investments jumped almost 40 percent in the first eight months of the year with the bulk coming from manufacturing and financial services. Our external payments position remains strong. As of October, the gross international reserves stood at US$108 billion. This is equivalent to almost 11 months’ worth of imports of goods and payment of services and primary income. The conventional wisdom is that 3 months’ worth of imports is sufficient. Let’s now move on to the Philippine banking sector’s performance. Benefitting from regulatory reforms of the past two decades, banks in the country have built resilience to shocks. While the pandemic caused a rise in soured debts, asset quality remains sound. Banks also have ample buffers against credit losses. For one, Philippine banks have generally observed prudent lending standards amid sound regulatory environment. Also, the Financial Institutions Strategic Transfer (FIST) Act, allowing banks to dispose bad assets to asset management companies serves as pre-emptive measure to manage any increase in loan defaults. 1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches Banks have ample capacity to absorb shocks, with capitalization remaining well beyond the minimum regulatory requirements. Banks also enjoy more-than-enough liquidity. Meanwhile, bank lending has recovered on improving demand for loans. Banks have also remained profitable throughout the crisis. All these key indicators attest to the ability of the banking sector to support recovery of the Philippine economy. While the road to full recovery remains iffy, the medium- and long-term prospects for the Philippines are promising. Moving on to BSP’s financial digitalization agenda … The rationale behind the push for financial digitalization is two-fold. First, is robust economic growth. Technology speeds up financial transactions, thereby hastening capital recovery and income generation. Second is financial inclusion. Technology allows the underserved sectors— such as low-income earners and people from remote areas—to easily access affordable financial products and services, including credit for livelihood activities. The BSP launched last year the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap—our blueprint for transforming the Philippines into a cash-lite society. Under this roadmap, we aim to achieve a shift of at least 50 percent of retail payments to digital transaction; and 70 percent of Filipino adults to have a formal financial account by 2023. We are confident of hitting the twin goals. On the first goal, in terms of volume, the share of digital payments to total financial transactions reached 20.1 percent in 2020 from 14.0 percent in 2019 and only 1.0 percent in 2013. Last year’s target of 20.0 percent seemed unrealistic for many, but we were able to achieve it with active promotion. The mobility restrictions caused by the pandemic contributed to the wider adoption of digital payments. As more Filipinos embrace the convenience of digital payments, we expect the phenomenal growth in digital financial transactions to continue in the years ahead. On the second goal, registered electronic money accounts reached 138.8 million last year with a total number of transactions of 1.7 billion. Meanwhile, the number of basic deposit accounts reached 7 million with PHP4.8 billion deposits in the first quarter of 2021. As of the first quarter of 2021, the proportion of “banked” Filipino adults have reached 53 percent, nearing the target of 70 percent. These include basic deposit and e-money accounts. The BSP welcomes the recent issuance of the implementing rules and regulations of Executive Order No. 127, which liberalizes access to satellite services by allowing non-enfranchised but registered Internet Service Providers (ISPs) and Value-Added Service Providers (VASPs) to directly access satellite systems to build broadband facilities. This is expected to improve the quality and reduce the cost of internet services in the country, which bodes well for our financial digitalization and inclusion agenda. The BSP has achieved milestones in digital banking. Following the issuance last year of the “Digital Banking Framework”, the BSP has already granted licenses to 6 entities. 2/3 BIS central bankers' speeches We expect these newly licensed digital banks to bring banking in the Philippines to new heights. The BSP has launched last month the “QRPh P2M (person-to-merchant),” that will promote extensive use of QR codes, enabling payments to vendors and public transport. Other initiatives in the pipeline will make electronic bills payment more convenient. The “interoperable bills payment facility” will allow bills payment of customers to billers even with different service providers. The “Direct Debit” facility provides customers the option to allow automatic debiting of recurring bills payments from their accounts. Meanwhile, the “Request to Pay Facility” allows payees to electronically send a “request to pay” so that payors may conveniently do payments by simply responding to the request. Additionally, as part of our financial digitalization drive, the BSP is working with the Department of Labor and Employment to promote digitalization of wage payments, and with the Department of Transportation to expand the use of digital platforms to pay for transport fares. The BSP likewise supports the Philippine Identification System, which will allow unbanked Filipinos to finally open financial accounts, thereby accelerate financial inclusion. Looking beyond the country’s borders, the BSP and the Monetary Authority of Singapore recently signed an enhanced FinTech Cooperation Agreement to facilitate interoperable payments between the Philippines and Singapore. The BSP intends to pursue similar arrangements with other monetary authorities in the ASEAN region. Moreover, the BSP is also studying the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) Innovation Hub’s Project Nexus. “Nexus” is a model for connecting multiple instant payment systems into a single cross-border platform. While this project is not yet operational, the BSP is using its blueprint as a guide in designing cross-border arrangements to support bilateral and multilateral platforms in the future. Lastly, the BSP is supporting legislative reforms that complement the financial digitalization agenda. One is the Financial Consumer Protection bill, which will strengthen the BSP’s ability to address consumer concerns on electronic financial accounts and enhance consumer safety and trust on the digital financial system. Also, the Open Access in Data Transmission bill, which seeks to lower the barriers and cost of entry in the data transmission industry to attract more players. This proposed legislation is expected to significantly improve the quality of internet services, helping our digitalization efforts flourish. With financial digitalization I am confident that we will achieve the stronger post-covid economy that we envision sooner rather than later. Thank you very much for your attention. 3/3 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Tuesday Club's New Year Brunch, Manila, 3 January 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: The Philippine economy in 2022 - toward a steady recovery path Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Tuesday Club's New Year Brunch, Manila, 3 January 2022. * * * Good morning, everyone. I am happy that our yearly tradition of spending the first Tuesday of the year together lives on despite recent developments. As we open the chapter that is 2022, allow me to go over the highlights of our economic performance in the year that has passed. The Philippine economy in 2021 made significant strides in terms of recovery, jumpstarting favorable prospects for 2022. As you know, BSP has done quite a lot to support economic recovery. On top of policy rate cuts to record lows and reduction in the reserve requirement, the BSP did extraordinary measures to boost liquidity in the financial system. As of November 11, the BSP has injected an estimated ₱2.3 trillion into the Philippine financial system, equivalent to about 12.5 percent of GDP. Once full recovery of the economy is underway, the BSP will implement a pre-planned exit strategy. On the back of strong fiscal and monetary support, as well as government’s health measures, the economy—after five consecutive quarters of decline—rebounded strongly in the second quarter of last year with a growth of 12 percent followed by a 7.1 percent growth in the third quarter. With these positive developments, the government raised its full-year growth assumption for 2021 to 5.0-5.5 percent. Labor conditions have improved as quarantine measures ease. Last October, the unemployment rate dropped to 7.4 percent following a peak of 17.6 percent in April last year. Meanwhile, inflation decelerated from 4.6 percent in October to 4.2 percent in November 2021, bringing the year-to-date inflation to 4.5 percent. This is above the 2.0- to 4.0-percent target, but based on latest BSP estimates, inflation will head toward the midpoint of the target range next year and in 2023. The Development Budget Coordination Committee decided to retain the current inflation target range at 2.0 to 4.0 percent for 2022–2024. Inflation expectations have remained firmly aligned with the BSP’s inflation assumption for 2021 and target for 2022–2023. Results of the BSP’s survey of private sector economists showed their mean inflation forecast at 4.4 percent for 2021. Most economists saw the risks to the inflation outlook for 2021 as tilted to the upside due to persistent supply disruptions and rising global oil prices. Nevertheless, for 2022 and 2023, economists expect inflation settling within target at 3.5 and 3.1 percent, respectively. Liquidity in the financial system remains ample. Domestic liquidity expanded by 8.3 percent year1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches on-year to P14.8 trillion in November 2021, extending an uptrend since July. As I mentioned, the various liquidity-easing measures of BSP have injected some 2.3 trillion pesos into the financial system, the equivalent of 12.5 percent of GDP. Meanwhile, outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks, net of reverse repurchase placements with the BSP, increased at a faster rate of 3.5 percent year-on-year in October from 2.7 percent in September. The continued recovery in bank lending activity reflects the sustained expansion in business activity amid easing quarantine restrictions, declining COVID-19 cases, and increased vaccinations. The country’s external sector continues to provide sufficient buffers to ward off the potential adverse effects of external headwinds. Our gross international reserves, which stood at US$107.7 billion as of end-November 2021, continue to provide ample cushion against unforeseen demand for foreign exchange liquidity. This is equivalent to 10.2 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. It is also about six to nine times the country’s short-term external debt, based on residual and original maturity, respectively. Amid the strong rebound in external demand in key trade partners, the country’s exports of goods increased by 16 percent in January to September 2021. Meanwhile, following the gradual resumption of domestic economic activities and restocking of inventories, imports of goods grew at a much faster rate of 30.2 percent in the same period. This resulted in a wider trade deficit of US$36.6 billion and has caused the overall balance of payments’ position to the reversal of the deficit of US$665 million in the first nine months of 2021, from a US$6.9 billion surplus in the same period last year. The country’s external sector remains supported by structural foreign exchange flows from overseas Filipino remittances, business process outsourcing receipts, and foreign direct investments. Cash remittances from overseas Filipinos are steadily flowing in with a 5.3-percent growth posted in January to October 2021 from a slight contraction in 2020. Meanwhile, business process outsourcing services exhibited strong recovery in the same period with 8.3-percent growth, as the sector was quick to adjust to the new work arrangements. Net foreign direct investments in January to September 2021 increased to USD7.3 billion from US$ 5.1 billion last year. This is due to positive foreign investor sentiment and improving confidence on the country’s growth prospects. This bodes well for job creation. Favorable external debt profile acts as a cushion against external shocks. External debt-to-GDP ratio settled at 27.3 percent as of end-September 2021, compared with about 60 percent in mid-2000s. Given that the bulk of the country’s external debt have medium and long-term maturity, and bears fixed interest rate, debt repayment schedule is more manageable and financially sustainable over the medium to long term. Considering recent economic developments and significant progress in vaccine rollout, we are optimistic that there is sufficient support for the country’s recovery this year and in the near term. The management of risks, the expected revitalization of key industries from government policy support and structural reforms, as well as the resumption of global economic activities, should 2/3 BIS central bankers' speeches help the Philippine economy move toward a steady recovery path. While there are challenges ahead of us, we are making good progress in terms of economic recovery. That should motivate us to persevere harder and keep moving forward. We, at BSP, are all set to support and guide the economy on a steady recovery path toward growth and onward to a post-COVID-19 economy that is sustainable and digitally inclusive. Maraming salamat at manigong bagong taon sa ating lahat! 3/3 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Rotary Club of Manila 25th Membership Meeting, Manila, 5 January 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: The COVID-19 pandemic and the economy Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Rotary Club of Manila 25th Membership Meeting, Manila, 5 January 2022. * * * Good afternoon, fellow Rotarians. Today, I’ll discuss what BSP did at the onset and during the pandemic, why we did what we did, and the outcomes. I will then turn to the present state of the economy and our prospects in the near and medium term. When the gravity and magnitude of the pandemic first came to the fore, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas acted swiftly and decisively to contain the economic fallout. As early as February 2020 — before the first local virus transmission was even confirmed – the Monetary Board cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. By the end of 2020, the policy rate was cut by another 175 bps, bringing the cumulative reduction to 200 bps; from 4 percent to a record low of 2 percent. Similarly, the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) was reduced to increase the volume of loanable funds in the system. For universal and commercial banks as well as non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions, the RRR was cut from 14 percent to 12 percent, while the RRR for thrift banks was cut from 4 percent to 3 percent and from 3 percent to 2 percent for rural/cooperative banks. These efforts were accompanied by a wide range of regulatory and operational relief measures for financial institutions. Knowing that small businesses were hard hit by mobility restrictions and lockdowns, we incentivized bank lending to MSMEs by treating new loans to MSMEs as compliance with the reserve requirement. In addition, we temporarily increased the single borrowers’ limit and raised the ceiling for real estate loans of universal and commercial banks from 20 percent to 25 percent. And to provide relief to beleaguered borrowers, we excluded some loans from being tagged as past due or non-performing and allowed a grace period for loan settlement and restructuring of rediscounted loans. We are slowly seeing signs of economic normalization as a result of our concerted efforts. Bank lending appears to have bottomed out, with loans by universal and commercial banks expanding by 4.0 percent in November from 3.5 percent in October. The latest uptick marks the fourth straight month of growth after several months of contraction. The effectiveness of our monetary interventions could also be seen in the sustained decline in domestic market interest rates. By October, the 91-day T-bill rate as of September 2021 fell by more than 200 basis points over the same period. In addition, the central bank suspended certain online banking charges and temporarily waived fees for applications for electronic payments and financial services and PhilPASS fund transfer transactions to provide continued access to financial services during this time. During the pandemic, we even put a cap on credit card charges to ease the financial burden on consumers. Under Circular No. 1098, we maintained the maximum interest rate or finance 1/4 BIS central bankers' speeches charge on unpaid outstanding credit card balance at 2 percent per month or 24 percent per year. The monthly add-on rates that credit card issuers can charge on installment loans is retained at a maximum rate of 1 percent. Beyond targeted monetary policy measures, the BSP implemented extraordinary liquidity measures to help the national government finance its COVID-19 response. As a former budget secretary under three administrations, I fully appreciate the predicament of the national government as it faces this unprecedented crisis. As the economy contracted, revenues plummeted. At the same time, with the need to build healthcare facilities, deploy more health care workers, purchase more medical equipment and vaccines, distribute food and cash assistance to a great majority of quarantined Filipinos, the national government had to ramp up public spending. As a result, the budget deficit increased from 3.4 percent of GDP in 2019 to 7.5 percent in 2020. As of end-September, our budget deficit as a share of GDP stood at 8.3 percent. The ultimate challenge is how the national government can finance its soaring budget deficit without raising its costs of borrowing, which in turn could increase domestic interest rates. As an extraordinary measure deployed only during extraordinary times, the BSP extended PHP540 billion (approximately US$10.8 billion) in direct provisional advances to the national government. In addition, we remitted PHP23 billion (approximately US$460 million) in dividends to augment the government’s pandemic war chest. To date, through its various measures, BSP has injected PHP2.3 trillion in liquidity into the financial system. This is equivalent to nearly 13 percent of the size of the Philippine economy. But while we have deployed extraordinary measures in response to the unprecedented nature of this crisis, our policy toolkit and regulatory space are far from exhausted. We stand ready to support the country’s continued recovery using the tools at our disposal. However, I would also like to point out that that these policy interventions didn’t happen in isolation. Rather, these developments occurred against a backdrop of proactive reforms and policy actions over the years to crisis-proof the financial and economic system. While the pandemic may have sped up the pace of reform, these structural adjustments were well underway even before COVID-19 hit, allowing the Bangko Sentral to take a longer-term view of the rapidly evolving situation. When I took the helm of the central bank in March 2019, our reserve requirement ratio was among the highest in the world. That year alone, we cut the RRR by a cumulative 400 basis points – from 18 percent by the end of 2018 to 14 percent in 2019. This brought our RRR more in line with China’s 13.5 percent. The 200-bp reduction in April 2020 brings our RRR to the current 12 percent. Even before the pandemic, I have made it my goal to reduce the RRR to single-digit level and shift to market-based instruments in order to manage overall liquidity. This goal remains to be in our policy agenda. Likewise, the policy rate, which banks use as reference for their respective lending rates, was as high as 4.75 percent when I was appointed two years ago. Today, it stands at a record low of 2 percent. The other lofty goals that we have been pursuing even before the pandemic are the acceleration of digitalization and the widening of financial inclusion. I made it clear during my first year as BSP 2/4 BIS central bankers' speeches Governor that before the end of my term in 2023, I want at least half of all retail transactions in digital form and at least 70 percent of adult Filipinos to own a transaction account. I’m pleased to announce that we are making great progress in achieving both goals. On the state of the economy… The Philippine economy appears to have turned the corner and appears set for faster growth. GDP grew by 7.1 percent in the third quarter of 2021 following a remarkable 12-percent expansion in the second quarter. BSP staff predicts that the economy will grow by 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter. The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) agreed. It adjusted its GDP growth projection upward for 2021 to 5.0-5.5 percent from 4.0-5.0 percent. Moreover, it expects the economy to grow by 7.0-9.0 percent in 2022 and 6.0-7.0 percent in 2023 and 2024. Another macroeconomic concern is inflation. For monetary authorities around the world, the foremost question is whether the elevated inflation is temporary or permanent in nature. Views diverge. A number of central bankers chose to tighten monetary policy to keep their economies from overheating while others opted to take a wait-and-see approach. For the Philippines, inflation settled at an average of 4.5 percent in 2021 after falling to 3.6 percent in December from 4.2 percent in November. This is slightly above the official target range of 2-4 percent. The elevated inflation this year is driven largely by supply-side pressures and do not warrant monetary interventions at this time. But we expect it to revert to 3.3 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent in 2023. Based on survey of selected economists, inflation expectations remain anchored. An important policy question is: should we follow other central banks who have tightened policy at this time in the face of persistently elevated inflation? I disagree. To me, the harm of tightening monetary policy too soon exceeds the harm of moving too late given that the Philippine economy is still at its nascent state of recovery. This crisis, while unprecedented in scale and scope, is unlike other crises in the past. Previous Philippine crises were characterized by rising interest rates cum depreciating peso, aggravated by foreign exchange outflows. By contrast, in this crisis, interest rates are at a historic low and the gross international reserves (GIR) are more than sufficient. The GIR reached USD107.72 billion in November. This level is equivalent to 10.2 months’ worth of goods imports and payments of services and primary income. The received doctrine is that three-months’ worth of goods imports is sufficient. The level also represents 8.7 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity and 5.7 times based on residual maturity. Thanks to receipts from business process outsourcing firms and remittances from overseas Filipinos, we expect GIR levels to remain steady or expand even more. I am cautiously optimistic on the economic prospects of the Philippine economy. I agree with DBCC’s GDP growth projection: 5.5 percent in 2021, 7 to 9 percent in 2022 and 6 to 7 percent in 2023 and 2024. On inflation, BSP is forecasting 2 to 4 percent in 2022 up to 2024, provided the national government continues to address supply-side factors affecting food items. 3/4 BIS central bankers' speeches Recall that in 2019, we were able to tame inflation after reforming rice trade. We should do more of liberalization of food items. Beware of politicians and pseudo economists who advocate that we should reverse what the Duterte administration has done on the liberalization of food items. Policy reversal will be disastrous, should that happen. My optimism for the future is grounded on what the Duterte administration has done so far. Tax reform. Investment in human capital. Golden age of infrastructure. Rice liberalization. Digitalization in banking and government services. These reforms have a positive effect on our desire to keep prices reasonable and steady, the fiscal system sound, and the economy efficient and competitive. On inflation, let me remind you that everyone benefits from reasonable and stable prices, but especially the fixed income earners and the poor. Finally, one important point. Every now and then, an unprecedented crisis will come along that will naturally consume the time and effort of our politicians and policymakers. The appropriate behavior is to address the core of the crisis. But let the crisis of the hour not distract them from our long-term goals as a nation and a society. In other words, we should not let the COVID-19 pandemic derail our long-term goals. With or without crisis, we should continue to pursue structural reforms that would put the Philippines not just on the road to pre-crisis growth but on a sustainable path of development. That is why I support the three pieces of legislation aimed at liberalizing the Philippine economy: first, the Retail Trade Liberalization Act, which will lower the minimum paid-up capital for foreign retailers; second, the amendments to the 80-year-old Public Service Act which will open up key economic sectors, including telecommunications and airlines; and thirdly, the amendments to the Foreign Investments Act which will encourage foreign professionals to bring their practice, know-how, and technical expertise to the Philippines. Fortunately, all three measures are nearing the finish line. I am confident that with these game-changing reforms, we can achieve real change in the lives of ordinary Filipinos through more and better jobs and more competitive economy. After all, the true measure of our effectiveness and relevance as an institution goes beyond our oft-cited mandates of price and financial stability, sound banking supervision, and an efficient payments and settlement system. It is best found in the real economy, in improving the lives of our countrymen. Thank you. 4/4 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 73rd Inaugural Meeting of the Management Association of the Philippines, Manila, 12 January 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Message - 73rd Inaugural Meeting of the Management Association of the Philippines Message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 73rd Inaugural Meeting of the Management Association of the Philippines, Manila, 12 January 2022. * * * Good afternoon to everyone. Thank you for inviting me to be your guest speaker and inducting officer for the 73rd Inaugural Meeting of the Management Association of the Philippines. Let me congratulate the 2022 MAP Board of Governors, led by Mr. Alfredo E. Pascual. Thank you for accepting the duties and responsibilities of leading this important organization. Since its inception in 1950, MAP has promoted management excellence for nation-building, and I laud MAP for delivering on this critical mission during this difficult time and supporting efforts toward economic recovery and sustainability. Let me begin with the economic outlook. Amid the health crisis, we have begun to see the dawn of recovery. Bright spots have emerged. After five consecutive quarters of negative growth, the economy bounced back with growth of 12.0 percent in the second quarter of 2021 followed by 7.1 percent in the third quarter. Labor conditions have improved, with the unemployment rate declining to an 11-month low of 6.5 percent last November, from the peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020. Inflation decelerated to 3.6 percent last December. This brought the average inflation for 2021 to 4.5 percent, above the official target range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent. For this year and next, we see inflation easing back to within the target range. The country’s gross international reserves remain hefty at $107.7 billion as of end-November 2021, equivalent to 10.2 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. Cash remittances from overseas Filipinos continue to be a reliable source of foreign exchange, growing by 5.3 percent to USD25.9 billion in January to October last year, from a slight contraction in 2020. For the first 16 months, Foreign Direct Investments net inflows rose by 48.1 percent to US$8.1 billion, up from US$5.5 billion in the previous year. Meanwhile, the peso appreciated to an average of P49.3/$1 in 2021 from 49.6/$1 the previous year. The Philippine banking system has remained sound amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The banking system’s total resources grew year-on-year by 6.6 percent to P20.1 trillion as of end-October 2021. Asset expanded by 8.6 percent to P15.6 trillion, funded mainly by deposits, reflecting continued trust and confidence of the public in the banking system. Bank lending has improved. As of end-October 2021, banks’ total loan portfolio expanded yearon-year by 3.3 percent to P11.0 trillion. Non-performing loans ratio remained manageable at 4.4 percent over the same period. 1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches Banks remained profitable, recording an annualized net profit growth of 8.5 percent last year. Capitalization remained ample, with the capital adequacy ratio staying well above the BSP’s 10 percent minimum requirement and the 8 percent prescribed by the Bank for International Settlements. Liquidity buffers stayed sufficient, with the liquidity coverage ratio of universal and commercial banks above the 100 percent minimum threshold. While the COVID-19 crisis has brought challenges, it helped accelerate financial digitalization and inclusion. More people started to embrace digital payment platforms and created electronic financial accounts. Even before the pandemic, we launched the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap with the twin goals to first, digitize at least half of the total volume of financial transactions and second, have at least 70 percent of Filipino adults owning transaction accounts by 2023. To help achieve these goals, we have implemented the digital banking framework, which provides the rules for the establishment of digital banks. In addition, we created the open finance framework, which provides the rules for consent driven use of information for the development of financial instruments that cater to the needs of customers. We are also exploring the digital financial marketplace model, which will allow bank and non-bank players to forge strategic partnerships in enabling consumers to access financial products and services through a one-stop shop platform. We also launched QR Ph, which has two use-cases: QR Ph person-to-merchant or P2M and QR Ph person-to-person payment or P2P. QR Ph P2M can help scale the services provided under QR Ph, and empower micro, small, or even informal merchants such as sari-sari store owners, wet market vendors, or tricycle drivers. Against this backdrop, the Bangko Sentral has heightened its cyber security efforts. We have intensified cyber-surveillance efforts and reinforced collaboration and information sharing with key stakeholders. We are also working on enhancements to existing regulations on fraud risk management and consumer protection to better safeguard consumers against cyber risks. This brings me to our next equally important agenda: championing sustainability in the financial system. In 2019, we included sustainability as a strategic thrust by launching the Sustainable Central Banking Program where BSP enables, mobilizes, and promotes the sustainability agenda. As enabler, the BSP has issued regulations on the Sustainable Finance Framework that banks must adhere to. In a nutshell, the Framework emphasizes the tone from the top and sets out the duties and responsibilities of the board of directors in changing the strategic thrust and embedding risk consciousness within the organization. This highlights that management, indeed, has a big role to play embedding sustainability principles in our organizations. And as the MAP, I hope you can help us drive this point across. On our end, the Bangko Sentral and other financial sector supervisors will continue to harmonize regulations and align expectations in the promotion of sustainable finance. This program is 2/3 BIS central bankers' speeches consistent with the Sustainable Finance Roadmap of the Green Force—an interagency government body tasked to promote sustainable finance that the Bangko Sentral co-chairs with the Department of Finance. Walking the talk, the Bangko Sentral has invested USD 550 million in the BIS Green Bond Fund since 2019. We have implemented green initiatives that aim to influence the behavior of employees and highlight the importance of individual actions in achieving our goals. An example is the “no single use plastic bottle policy.” These are complemented by projects showing the BSP’s actions and policy direction. These include the installation of energy-efficient mechanisms such as solar panels, adoption of paperlite policy, and initiatives to secure the BERDE certification for our buildings. The new BSP Complex in New Clark City is envisioned to become a smart, green, and modern facility that balances efficiency and environmental sustainability. For our currency production, we have decided to use polymer banknotes to make sure that the notes are high quality, long-lasting, difficult to counterfeit, resistant to dirt and moisture, and most importantly, environment-friendly with lower carbon footprint than paper. Finally, the pandemic has highlighted the quality of governance in financial institutions. The past 21 months showed us the quality of oversight of the board of directors and the robustness of risk management systems of financial institutions, enabling them to quickly resume business operations and deliver financial services even amid the pandemic. The corporate and risk governance reforms implemented by the Bangko Sentral to embed a culture of excellence and good governance among supervised financial institutions helped the Philippine banking system withstand the pandemic. In closing, allow me to share how the Bangko Sentral is working toward a safe, sound, and resilient financial system, captured in the acronym RING: R stands for Risk management guidelines which are continuously enhanced to be responsive to changing environment I is Integrity in the financial system and investor confidence, which we espouse. N or New technologies that must be adapted to provide innovative financial products and services, and lastly G or Governance standards, which must be continuously strengthened, reinforcing sound culture and conduct of supervised financial institutions. All that said, I hope MAP can also use these same principles in promoting management excellence in your respective organizations. 3/3 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Opening statement by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), during the Senate Deliberation on the Proposed Financial Consumer Protection Act, Manila, 16 January 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Proposed Financial Consumer Protection Act Opening statement by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), during the Senate Deliberation on the Proposed Financial Consumer Protection Act, Manila, 16 January 2022. * * * Introduction 1. Sen. Grace Llamanzares-Poe, Chairperson of the Senate Committee on Banks, Financial Institutions and Currencies, Senators and members of the Committee, fellow public servants from the Cooperative Development Authority, Insurance Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission, and other concerned agencies and stakeholders, good morning. We thank you for your support to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ initiatives, including the Financial Consumer Protection Act or the “FCP Act”. We likewise thank the Senators who filed a version of the FCP Act, and to all market players, who continue to support this priority legislative measure. Necessity and Urgency of the FCP Act 2. The FCP Act will protect every Juan and Maria making financial transactions — whether it is making deposits to save for their children’s education, taking a loan to grow their businesses, sending money to friends and family, or paying goods online. The Act will benefit us all because we are all financial consumers. 3. Without this Act, we will continue to hear stories like Johnny’s — a father of two young children and an economic front-liner, who lost his hard-earned savings after a fraudster obtained his account information and made unauthorized fund transfers; or Marianne’s — a small business owner, who was billed with an increased amortization on her loan account. She disputed the reasonableness of the fees and charges, but lost to the financial institution in the end. These are real stories. They are based on actual complaints that BSP received. In fact, these two cases were among the 42,456 complaints elevated to the BSP Consumer Assistance Mechanism for 2020 and 2021. Declared amounts in the complaints received in 2021 alone add up to about 540 million pesos; from 2019 to 2021, the cumulative total amounted to two billion pesos. A majority of these cases have been deemed closed. But the process was long and arduous. And for many complaints the resolutions were unfavorable to the consumer. Over the same period, fellow regulator, the Insurance Commission, received and processed 2,992 complaints against insurance and pre-need companies and HMOs. The Securities and Exchange Commission also received hundreds of investment scam complaints within 2019 and 2020. These cases could be resolved quickly once the FCP Act is in place. This Act will empower financial regulators such as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, the Insurance Commission, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Cooperative Development Authority to expedite the adjudication of reasonable monetary claims more efficiently, fairly and openly, all to the benefit of the consumers. 4. One of the positive unintended consequences of the COVID pandemic has been the dramatic rise in the use of digital financial services. But the surge brought with it graver risks. In fact, complaints related to the use internet banking and mobile banking account for 45.2 percent of the 1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches total complaints in 2021. Hackers and scammers took advantage of the digital infrastructure and consumer vulnerability to perpetrate crime. Based on BSP monitoring, the increased use by the public of digital financial services has given rise to a wave of cyber and financial crimes. In 2020, hacking and other malware attacks surged by a whopping 2324 percent from the previous year, while phishing and other social engineering schemes increased 302 percent from 2019. Over the same period, account takeover or identity theft rose 2.5 percent, while Card Not Present fraud fell 26.8 percent. Taken together, the top three cybercrimes in 2020 were first, account takeover or identity theft; second, phishing and other social engineering schemes; and third, Card Not Present fraud. Notably, skimming and ATM-based cyber fraud losses significantly declined from 2018–2021 due to the implementation of EMV chip technology, but fraud actors were quick to shift their tactics. Clearly, all of us as financial consumers, are exposed to various risks, frauds and cyber threats that could result in loss of income. Worse, it could result in loss of confidence in the financial system. 5. Should there be a loss of confidence in the financial system, consumers might opt to keep their savings and investments away from the formal financial system – thus undermining the financial system’s ability to intermediate and facilitate the flow of funds to productive sectors of the economy. 6. The enactment of the FCP Act is envisioned to provide an armor of protection to all financial consumers. It will ensure that relevant government institutions and financial regulators will be fully equipped with the legal authority to enforce prudent, responsible, and customer-centric standards of business conduct. The passage of the FCP Act will enable financial regulators to sanction business practices and entities that pose grave and irreparable injury to financial consumers. It will deter frauds and scams, and ensure that every Juan and Maria are provided with positive customer experiences. FCP Act Features Overview 7. Now, let me talk about the salient features of the FCP Act. The Act covers the full range of financial products and services offered by the banking, insurance, payments and fintech industries. Even investment advisory services are covered. Aligned with international standards, the Act strengthens the oversight and enforcement powers of financial regulators to address current weaknesses of existing laws, rules, regulations. The Act grants regulators with authority to determine the reasonableness of fees and charges; suspend erring employees; revoke licenses of erring financial institutions; and impose sanctions to ensure compliance with the intent of its provisions. 8. Most importantly, the Act provides financial consumers with new, immediate, and efficient avenues for redress by granting financial regulators with adjudicatory authority to conduct hearings on consumer complaints. This proposed measure provides alternate, less cumbersome, legal recourse for financial consumers. Consumer complaints can be escalated and resolved at the level of the financial regulators, ensuring quick resolutions, hence de-clogging court dockets. Existing courts may then focus on more pressing matters. 9. The passage of the FCP Act is not only a matter of necessity, it is an issue of urgency. As mentioned earlier, as financial products and services continue to rise, so do risks. And we, policymakers, cannot stand idly by while the Juans and Marias continue to suffer from the limitations of our existing laws. 2/3 BIS central bankers' speeches 10. Without doubt, if properly and swiftly implemented, the FCP Act will reinforce the trust and confidence of the public in the financial system, and in the government’s ability to uphold consumer welfare. 11. We look forward to this Committee’s —and the Senate’s —full and continued support to the enactment of the Financial Consumer Protection Act as a priority measure. Thank you very much. 3/3 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Message from Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Launching of PESONet Multiple Batch Settlement, Manila, 23 January 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Message during the Launch of PESONet Multiple Batch Settlement Message from Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Launching of PESONet Multiple Batch Settlement, Manila, 23 January 2022. * * * A pleasant afternoon to everyone! Let me begin by congratulating the Philippine Payments Management, Inc. (PPMI), the PESONet MBS team, the Philippine Clearing House Corporation (PCHC), stakeholders in the payments industry and colleagues from the BSP’s Payments and Currency Management Sector for achieving yet another milestone in Philippine retail payment system development: the launch of PESONet multiple batch settlement service or PESONet MBS. About a decade ago, retail payments in the country was dominated by physical cash or checks. To encourage e-payments adoption, the BSP, together with PPMI, embarked on strategic initiatives in building a safe, efficient, reliable, and inclusive payment system. These joint projects were pursued as part of the National Retail Payment System Framework under which PESONet was established. These proactive efforts to lay down interoperable digital payment rails prior to the COVID-19 pandemic turned out to be crucial. Digital channels made it possible to carry out essential transactions of households, businesses and the government in the face of mobility restrictions. In fact, a growing volume of pension, social security benefits and government aid have been disbursed digitally through PESONet. In 2021, the value of SSS disbursements coursed through PESONet reached P158.47 billion and there is room for further growth with the launch of these digital initiatives. The numbers showing the use of digital payments and those with financial accounts are encouraging. The BSP exceeded its target of digitalizing a fifth of retail payments by end 2020. Along with higher digital payments usage, we also expanded financial inclusion with the increased number of Filipinos who opened e-money accounts. By the first quarter of 2021, more than half or 53 percent of Filipino adults own a transaction account in a financial institution, a sharp increase from only 29 percent back in 2019. Today, we welcome another landmark achievement with the launch of the PESONet Multiple Batch Settlement – an improvement that allows more frequent settlement of PESONet fund transfers, from one to two cycles within a banking day. PESONet recipients will now be able to receive funds at an earlier time than the usual end of banking day. With this enhanced feature, we hope that consumers will be incentivized to use PESONet for greater convenience, faster settlement, and better liquidity management. This enhancement also stands to improve person-to-government payments made through EGov Pay, which is another facility that runs through the PESONet. With PESONet MBS, payments for taxes, permits, fees, and other obligations to the government using EGov Pay will be faster. As more Filipinos embrace digital payments, we are optimistic that PESONet MBS would bring 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches us closer to our strategic objectives under the BSP’s Digital Transformation Roadmap: namely, first, digitalizing 50 percent of retail payments volume, and second, onboarding 70 percent of adult Filipinos to the formal financial system by 2023. They say, “teamwork makes the dream work.” Hence, I would like to commend our partners in the payments industry for helping us turn this vision into reality. Despite the challenges from the pandemic, we, at the BSP, remain committed to closely collaborate with the various stakeholders in the payments industry, as well as in the public and private sectors to deliver safe, convenient and responsive digital payment services that help our fellow countrymen thrive in the New Economy. Together, let us continue to work towards achieving our shared goal of building a vibrant and inclusive digital Philippine economy where every Filipino can have meaningful participation. Once again, congratulations to all the men and women who worked tirelessly to make the PESONet MBS launch a success! 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Opening remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), during the Signing of the Multilateral MOU on Establishment of Supervisory College for Financial Conglomerate Supervision, Manila, 24 January 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Opening remarks during the signing of the establishment of a supervisory college for financial conglomerate supervision Opening remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), during the Signing of the Multilateral MOU on Establishment of Supervisory College for Financial Conglomerate Supervision, Manila, 24 January 2022. * * * Good morning. It is my pleasure to welcome our Financial Sector Forum Principals, Emilio Aquino, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission; Dennis Funa, Commissioner of the Insurance Commission; and Sandra Diaz, Senior Vice President of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation to witness another momentous event for the Forum. In line with the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the Financial Sector Forum created the Financial Conglomerate Supervision Committee which is tasked to work towards identifying conglomerate risks in the financial system; and to plan ahead supervisory initiatives to mitigate conglomerate risks. The Basel Principles highlight, among others, the need for a clear legal framework that provides supervisors with the necessary powers, authority and resources to perform, with independence and in coordination with other supervisors, comprehensive group-wide supervision. The Principles re-affirm the importance of supervisory cooperation, coordination and information exchange. In the 2020 Financial Sector Assessment Program Technical Note on Supervision and Regulation of Financial Conglomerates, the International Monetary Fund recommended the implementation of a multilateral agreement among Financial Sector Forum member agencies on the establishment of Supervisory College to agree on the approach of group level risk assessment for financial conglomerates. The establishment of a Supervisory College is an important regulatory platform in achieving effective and efficient supervision of financial conglomerates. It is also an international practice amongst international financial supervisory authorities. Thus, this Memorandum of Understanding shall govern the establishment of an inter-agency cross-sectoral Supervisory College which shall serve as the forum, to facilitate cooperation and coordination between and among the Financial Sector Forum member agencies specifically, for the supervision of financial conglomerates in the Philippines. This supports a clear process for coordinating various roles and responsibilities of the Financial Sector Forum with clearly delineated responsibilities for effective supervision. As such, we would like to re-affirm the spirit of collaboration by signing the Memorandum of Understanding on the Establishment of Supervisory College for Financial Conglomerate Supervision. Finally, let me share a quote from the American industrialist and business magnate, Henry Ford. He said that “Coming together is a beginning, staying together is progress, and working together is success. If everyone is moving forward together, then success takes care of itself." Congratulations to the Financial Sector Forum member agencies for taking this step to improve 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches the supervision of financial conglomerates in the Philippines for the benefit of the Filipino people. Thank you and good morning! 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 16th J.P. Morgan Philippine Conference 2022, virtual, 26 January 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Tracking the Philippines’ economic recovery Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 16th J.P. Morgan Philippine Conference 2022, virtual, 26 January 2022. * * * Good day, everyone. I hope you are all safe and well. I thank JP Morgan for inviting me to speak in this virtual event. Despite the challenges of the ongoing crisis, the Philippine economy remains on the strong recovery path. Allow me to give you an overview of the Philippine economy from the lens of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). The gradual reopening of economies and progress in vaccine rollout, 2021 shaped up to be a year of global recovery. However, the global recovery came with challenges, including sluggish and uneven distribution of vaccines. The emergence of new COVID-19 variants also forced governments to reimpose restrictions to contain the virus. Against this backdrop, the Philippine economy grew by 12.0 percent in the second quarter of 2021 and by 7.1 percent in the third quarter. The faster-than-expected expansion in the third quarter was driven by the industry and services sectors. In contrast, the agriculture sector contracted, owing to weather disturbances and the African swine fever that affected livestock. The nationwide rollout of the alert level system, which permitted interzonal and intrazonal travels covering places in lower alert levels, contributed to higher mobility and improved business activities in November and December 2021. The recovery in business activity led to improved employment indicators. Some jobs lost in the earlier periods of the pandemic were gradually recovered, with total employment in October 2021 already exceeding pre-pandemic levels. However, high-contact industries, such as accommodation, food service activities, and transportation and storage continued to record job losses. Moreover, granular data show that quality of jobs has yet to fully recover. The BSP’s accommodative monetary policy and extraordinary measures ensured adequate liquidity in the financial system and helped bolster domestic economic activity amid the pandemic. Bank lending appears to have slowly turned the corner in recent months. It grew for the fourth straight month in November, up by 4.0 percent year-on-year from 3.5 percent in October. This came with optimistic economic outlook of businesses in response to rising vaccine rollout and easing of restrictions in the latter part of 2021. Meanwhile, inflation further eased in December 2021. On an annual basis, inflation for food, 1/4 BIS central bankers' speeches alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and non-food items continued to slow down in December owing to easing supply constraints. However, prices of electricity, gas, and other fuels further increased amid elevated global prices of crude oil and coal. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, likewise declined in December as supply-side price pressures abated. Targeted non-monetary measures by the national government helped ease the pressures from supply-side factors. The consecutive quarters of positive year-on-year economic growth point to prospects of sustainable recovery. Nevertheless, with recovery still in its nascent stage, the BSP is keen to maintain policy support for the economy. We will properly time our exit strategy as withdrawing support either too early or too late may have undesirable consequences to the economy. To date, the BSP’s liquidity-easing measures in response to the pandemic amount to 12 percent of GDP. The prevailing monetary policy stance is supported by a manageable inflation outlook and anchored inflation expectations. Based on our latest baseline forecasts, inflation is seen to settle at 3.4 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent in 2023, well within the official target range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent. However, risks to the inflation outlook appear to be slightly on the upside for 2022 but remain broadly balanced for 2023. Over the near term, major upside risks include increase of global nonoil commodity prices due to strong global demand. Additionally, we continue to monitor the developments surrounding Typhoon Odette to determine if it will have secondary effects on inflation. Meanwhile, results of the BSP’s survey of private sector economists conducted in December 2021 showed steady mean inflation forecasts at 3.5 percent for 2022 and 3.1 percent for 2023. The domestic economy is expected to rebound stronger this year. The interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) sets its 2022 GDP growth assumption to a range of 7.0 to 9.0 percent from 5.0 to 5.5 percent last year, taking into account continued recovery prospects as more people get vaccinated and as more businesses rebound from the pandemic. Meanwhile, overseas Filipino remittances are seen to have reached a new record high of US$31.7 billion in 2021 from US$30.1 billion in 2019. But there are risks to the strong recovery prospects. The emergence of highly transmissible COVID-19 variants could delay the normalization of economic activities. While vaccines have helped lessen severe COVID-19 cases and lower hospitalizations, the reduced efficacy of existing vaccines against more virulent COVID-19 variants may force governments to reimpose stricter lockdown measures to prevent rapid spread of infections. These restrictions, if prolonged, could impede the global economy’s recovery in the first half of 2022. 2/4 BIS central bankers' speeches Nonetheless, in the case of the Philippines, the timely imposition of quarantine restrictions may help control COVID-19 surges and arrest the spread of the more transmissible Omicron variant. On the external front, the ongoing policy normalization by major central banks could affect capital flows and heighten volatility in financial markets. On the positive side, the policy normalization of advanced economy central banks may provide opportunities for economies like the Philippines in terms of increased trade activities. We expect the Philippine economy’s growth trajectory to improve further owing to the projected expansion of exports in 2022. From Q1-Q3 2021, goods exports grew by 16.0 percent owing to the recovery in demand from our major trading partners. Electronic products account for more than half of the country’s total exports. And we expect exports of electronic products to increase as demand for semiconductors and other electronic components rises owning to more extensive global digitalization efforts across multiple sectors. Also lending support to the improved export outlook are higher commodity prices in mineral and agro-based products, and an increase in domestic production capacity. The normalization of the presently highly accommodative monetary policy in advanced economies is expected to cause a rebalancing of global capital flows and depreciation of emerging markets’ currencies vis-à-vis the dollar. While such a move could potentially affect all emerging economies, the effect on each individual economy will be uneven. Our assessment is that the Philippines is in a favorable position to navigate this tightening of global financial conditions given its manageable inflation environment and sufficient external buffers. The current level of gross international reserves (GIR) of USD109 billion is more than sufficient to withstand adverse external shocks. Structural flows from overseas Filipino remittances, IT-BPM revenues, and foreign direct investments can be counted on to further boost the country’s external payments position. Meanwhile, the BSP’s market-determined exchange rate system and macroprudential measures will continue to curb excessive foreign exchange volatility and help maintain order in the financial markets. The timing and conditions under which the BSP will unwind its pandemic interventions will continue to be guided by the inflation and growth outlook over the medium term and the risks surrounding such outlook. Consistent with the BSP’s data-dependent approach to policymaking, the BSP will continue to monitor the evolution of various domestic factors, including liquidity and credit dynamics, financial sector risks, and the state of public health, as well as emerging global developments and potential spillovers. In closing, let me to summarize the key messages of my presentation: First, the global economy began its recovery path in 2021, but this was subdued in large part by the emergence of new COVID-19 variants and the uneven vaccination rollout across and within economies. Second, despite the slowdown in global economic recovery, the Philippine economy remains on 3/4 BIS central bankers' speeches track to recover its pandemic losses, underpinned by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and expectations of higher domestic and foreign demand as well as stable inflation outlook. And third, the BSP remains steadfast in its commitment to provide appropriate policy support to ensure a sustainable path to economic recovery. When developments warrant a scale-down of policy support as economic recovery gains traction, the BSP will ensure a smooth transition in winding down its time and state-bound measures. The BSP will strike a delicate balance between providing adequate stimulus to the economy and preventing the buildup up inflationary pressures and risks to financial stability. Thank you for your attention. Deputy Governor Francis Dakila will be sharing the BSP’s thoughts in greater detail during the Q&A. I look forward to meeting you all in person in our future engagements. 4/4 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Message from Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Launch of the National Strategy for Financial Inclusion 2022-2028 and Financial Inclusion Logo, Manila, 27 January 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Launch of the National Strategy for Financial Inclusion 2022-2028 Message from Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Launch of the National Strategy for Financial Inclusion 2022-2028 and Financial Inclusion Logo, Manila, 27 January 2022. * * * To the members of the Financial Inclusion Steering Committee or FISC; key stakeholders and partners; financial inclusion advocates and champions; members of the Monetary Board; esteemed colleagues and guests; ladies and gentlemen: good afternoon. It is my privilege to welcome you all to the launch of the National Strategy Financial Inclusion 2022–2028. When we launched the original National Strategy for Financial Inclusion or NSFI on July 1, 2015, we set out to define what financial inclusion meant in the Philippine setting.We laid out the fundamental principles that would guide our vision and action in bringing more Filipinos into the formal financial system. We take pride in knowing that through the guidance of the FISC and the contributions of our stakeholders, much has been accomplished in nearly seven years of NSFI implementation.Together, we have enhanced the breadth and depth of our outreach to the unbanked and underserved through several initiatives. These initiatives have been instrumental in broadening access to essential financial products and services and, in turn, have uplifted lives by giving the poor the means to protect and grow their livelihoods, improve their well-being, and ultimately, take greater control of their future. Through our efforts, having a transaction account, obtaining a loan, investing, and purchasing insurance, are now more accessible to the man on the street, market vendor, tricycle driver, farmer, fisherman, and sari-sari store owner. We have also set the pace for innovation and other critical undertakings, including the implementation of the national ID system or PhilSys, as well as the digitalization of social protection benefits and financial services to the public. However, there is more work to be done.The paramount vision of financial inclusion, after all, is to foster sustainable, broad-based growth that promotes shared prosperity and opportunities.Access to financial products and services must not only be broad, but also meaningful in a sense that it opens up opportunities for the man on the street to move up in life. While account ownership grew over the last 4 years from the launch of the NSFI in 2015, the 2019 Financial Inclusion Survey showed that 71% or an estimated 51 million remain unreached by the formal financial system. With these realities and other significant developments transforming the country’s financial inclusion landscape, our vision and strategy must evolve to reflect new exigencies, demands, and opportunities. The NSFI 2022–2028 signifies our greater collective commitment and aspiration for a more financially included and empowered citizenry. It takes a deliberate stance to address the significant disparities in financial inclusion levels across demographics and segments. The NSFI 2022–2028 emphasizes financial inclusion to enhance consumer welfare and features financial resilience as a centerpiece of our renewed vision.It outlines a strategic governance framework, through which a broader set of stakeholders can be tapped as a driving force of the 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches Strategy’s implementation and, thus, truly foster a whole-of-nation approach. By articulating concrete desired outcomes, priorities, performance indicators, and targets, this landmark document will not only serve as a financial inclusion blueprint for the next six years, but also as powerful tool for communicating our bold commitment to the financial inclusion agenda. At this point, I would like to thank and commend my fellow FISC members and our stakeholders for your recognition of financial inclusion as an essential component of our country’s development master plan. Your contributions have truly been invaluable to the development of the NSFI 2022–2028. The effective implementation of the NSFI 2022–2028 will, of course, rely on everyone’s unwavering dedication and zeal. We must work to ensure all Filipinos can thrive and prosper in an ever-evolving landscape. This is also why we chose the social media hashtag #KabilangAko, to send a clear message that no one will be left behind. Finally, today’s launch merely heralds the continuation of our financial inclusion journey, one that is to be pursued with even greater purpose: to open opportunities for every Filipino to become both the beneficiaries and foundations of growth and prosperity.We look forward to being with you on this journey. Thank you again for joining us on this momentous occasion as we unveil the NSFI 2022– 2028. Maraming salamat at mabuhay! # 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Economic Briefing 2022, Manila, 30 January 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: The Philippine economy post-COVID-19 moving steadily towards recovery Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Economic Briefing 2022, Manila, 30 January 2022. * * * Good day, everyone. I hope you are all safe and well. Thank you to Daiwa Securities Group for allowing me to share updates on the economy and how we plan to maintain our strong growth momentum. I am pleased to present to you latest developments in the Philippine economy. After five consecutive quarters of negative growth, the Philippine economy maintained its positive momentum and grew 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. This brings the full-year GDP growth figure to 5.6 percent. The full-year print exceeds the government’s revised forecast range of 5 to 5.5 percent, giving us even more confidence of even brighter recovery prospects. Labor conditions have improved. In November 2021, the country’s unemployment rate, down from a peak of 17.6 percent in April last year, fell even further to 6.5 percent, the lowest since January 2021. Employment gains for the month have occurred mainly in the services sectors, particularly in public administration and defense, as well as wholesale/retail trade; and in fishing and aquaculture. Meanwhile, the country’s year-on-year headline inflation further decelerated to 3.6 percent in December 2021 from 4.2 percent in November 2021, bringing the year-to-date average inflation to 4.5 percent. This is slightly above the Government’s inflation target range of 2.0-4.0 percent for 2021. The slowdown in December 2021 inflation supports the BSP’s assessment that inflation would decelerate to within the target range over the policy horizon. Meanwhile, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) decided to retain the current inflation target range at 3.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point for 2022–2024. The prevailing policy stance is also supported by a manageable inflation outlook and anchored inflation expectations. Based on our latest baseline forecasts, inflation is seen to settle at 3.4 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent in 2023, well within the government’s target range of 2 to 4 percent. We expect liquidity in the financial system to remain adequate in supporting credit activity and a broad-based economic recovery. M3 expanded by 8.2 percent year-on-year to P14.8 trillion in November 2021, unchanged from the growth rate (revised) recorded in October 2021. Overall liquidity conditions thus continue to provide support for domestic economic activity. The various liquidity-easing measures of BSP have injected the equivalent of 12.0 percent of GDP into the financial system. Meanwhile, outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks (U/KBs), net of reverse repurchase (RRP) placements with the BSP, increased at a faster rate of 4.0 percent year-onyear in November 2021 from 3.5 percent in October 2021. Moving on to banking sector developments… 1/4 BIS central bankers' speeches Philippine banks have shown resilience to the COVID-19 crisis, benefiting from risk-management and other regulatory reforms of the past two decades. Banks have ample buffers against shocks. Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is at 17.6 percent, well above the 8.0 percent prescribed by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the BSP’s 10.0 percent minimum requirement. Exposure to bad debts remains manageable. Average non-performing loans (NPL) ratio stood at 3.9 percent as of end-November this year, much lower than the double-digit figures in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis. The implementation of the FIST Act, signed earlier this year, is projected to reduce average NPL ratio of the banking system by 0.6 to 5.8 percentage points for the years 2021 to 2025. The exchange rate movements remain broadly in line with the country’s long-run macroeconomic fundamentals. In 2021, the foreign exchange market was supported mainly by positive market sentiment as the economy continued to show signs of recovery amid the pandemic. The BSP has held to its long-standing approach of keeping the exchange rate market-determined and taking measures only to ensure orderly market conditions and reduce excessive short-term volatility in the exchange rate that may impact on inflation and inflation expectations. Looking ahead in the year, the peso is expected to remain stable, supported by structural inflows from exports, overseas Filipino remittances, BPO receipts, and foreign direct investments. Meanwhile, the country’s external sector continues to provide sufficient buffers to ward off the potential adverse effects of external headwinds. Our gross international reserves (GIR), which stood at US$108.9 billion as of end-2021, continue to provide ample cushion against unforeseen demand for FX liquidity. The GIR level is equivalent to 10.3 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. It is also about 6 to 9 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual and original maturity, respectively. Amid the strong rebound in external demand in key trade partners, the country’s exports of goods increased by 16 percent in January to September 2021. Meanwhile, following the gradual resumption of domestic economic activities and restocking of inventories, imports of goods grew at a much faster rate of 30.2 percent in the same period. This resulted in a wider trade deficit at US$36.6 billion and has caused the overall BOP position to reverse to a deficit of US$665 million in the first nine months of 2021 from a US$6.9 billion surplus in the same period last year. The country’s external sector has remained supported by structural FX flows from overseas Filipino remittances, business process outsourcing receipts, and foreign direct investments. Cash remittances from overseas Filipinos (OFs) are steadily flowing in with a 5.2 percent growth posted in January to November 2021, from a slight contraction in 2020. Meanwhile, BPO services exhibited strong recovery in the same period at 8.3 percent as the sector was quick to adjust to the new normal work set up. Net foreign direct investments (FDI) in January to October 2021 increased by 48.1 percent due to positive foreign investor sentiment and improving confidence on the country’s growth prospects. This bodes well for job creation. 2/4 BIS central bankers' speeches Moreover, favorable external debt profile acts as a cushion against external shocks. External debt-to-GDP ratio settled at 27.3 percent as of end-September 2021 compared to about 60.0 percent in mid-2000s. Given that bulk of the country’s external debt have medium and long-term maturity, and are fixed interest rate bearing, debt repayment schedule is more manageable and financially sustainable over the medium to long term. Considering recent economic developments and significant progress in mass vaccination, we are optimistic that there is sufficient support for the country’s recovery this year and in the near term. The management of risks, the expected revitalization of key industries from government policy support and structural reforms, as well as the resumption of global economic activities should help the Philippine economy move towards a steady recovery path. The latest projections as of the 16 December 2021 monetary policy meeting indicate that average inflation is likely to ease towards the midpoint of the target range in 2022, at 3.4 percent, and 2023, at 3.2 percent. OF cash remittances are seen to increase, while receipts from BPO services are expected to rise as host economies open further and access to digital financial services is enhanced. Inflows of foreign direct investments (FDIs) are seen to climb as the domestic and global investment climate improves. Moving forward, the BSP’s actions and policy thrusts will continue to be anchored on its core mandates of promoting price and financial stability. On monetary policy: the BSP will remain vigilant over the current inflation dynamics to ensure that the monetary policy stance continues to support economic recovery to the extent that the inflation outlook would allow. It will carefully scan the operating environment with a forwardlooking perspective to move in a pre-emptive fashion to address any risks to our price stability mandate. On the financial sector: the BSP will intensify its monitoring and surveillance over its supervised institutions to ensure that they remain responsive to emerging risks and to promote the continued soundness, stability, resilience and inclusivity of the banking system, particularly through the pursuit of enhanced digitization. Finally, on the external sector: the BSP will remain supportive of policies that will help strengthen the economy’s resilience to external shocks, including that of maintaining a market-determined exchange rate, keeping a comfortable level of reserves, and keeping the country’s external debt manageable. In closing, I leave you with three key takeaways: First, the Philippines’ economic fundamentals remain solid, and these will carry us through full recovery. The national government will continue to implement measures that will balance the twin goals of saving livelihoods and saving lives. Second, BSP will keep its policy settings and regulatory relief measures supportive of the economy as needed; withdrawal of policy measures will only be done once full recovery is underway. Lastly, the BSP remains one with the government and the Filipino people in dealing with this crisis head on and in pushing the economy toward full recovery. The accelerated vaccination program, implementation of economic recovery measures and pursuit of key structural reforms will help lessen the long-term scarring effects of the pandemic and ensure a robust growth 3/4 BIS central bankers' speeches trajectory for the economy. Thank you for your attention. 4/4 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Launch of Financial Stability Report for the 2nd Semester of 2021, Manila, 1 February 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Managing risks, sustaining momentum, improving lives Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Launch of Financial Stability Report for the 2nd Semester of 2021, Manila, 1 February 2022. * * * Ladies and gentlemen, friends from the media, good morning. Thank you for joining the Financial Stability Coordination Council for the Financial Stability Report for the 2nd Semester of 2021. A few days ago, Q4 2021 Year-on-Year growth was reported to be at 7.7 percent, putting the full year expansion at 5.6 percent. This is a remarkable turnaround from what we experienced in the first year of Covid-19. For financial authorities, we welcome these gains, humbly recognizing that there will always be improvements we can pursue, while maintaining a watchful eye over changing market conditions. In thinking of where our market stands, I am reminded of Niccolo Machiavelli, the Italian philosopher and statesman to whom this quote was first attributed. He once said, and I quote “never let a crisis go to waste”, unquote. His idea cannot be more apt than today. While this pandemic has been a heavy burden, it has provided us the opportunity to come together and take collective action. Now that we have our growth momentum back, we can pause, to take the opportunity to learn from this crisis. In previous FSRs, we described how quickly we all came together. Faced with an unprecedented crisis, we took unconventional measures to respond to an out-of-the-box challenge. In this FSR, we talk about what we have learned from Covid. For financial authorities, it is and will always be about the financial system as a whole and that whole has to be appreciated as being more than the sum of its parts. We also talk about how we can be better, addressing some of more immediate challenges that have come up because of Covid. It is about the welfare of the Filipino, seen through the lens of public health, through access to goods, through socio-economic equity, and through a greener future environment. All of these are in this latest FSR. We invite all of you to access and download your copy which will be available in the websites of the FSCC member agencies.As always, we look forward to hearing your thoughts and comments. Again, thank you for joining us today and good morning. 1/1 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Fund Managers Association of the Philippines, Inc. General Membership Meeting , Manila, 2 February 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Prospects for a productive partnership Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Fund Managers Association of the Philippines, Inc. General Membership Meeting , Manila, 2 February 2022. * * * To the directors, officers, and members of the Fund Managers Association of the Philippines, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. It has been almost a year since we came together for the 13th Annual FMAP Convention. I commend the incumbent officers of the FMAP, under the leadership of Mr. J Vincent Daffon, for ably steering the industry through the past year. Today, I would like to share our perspective on recent economic developments, as well as the state of the banking and trust industries. I will also highlight the Bangko Sentral’s priority regulatory initiatives and identify potential areas of cooperation with the FMAP membership. The economy has staged a strong turnaround, growing by 5.6 percent in 2021. The full-year growth exceeded the government’s forecast of 5 to 5.5 percent. The collective efforts of both public and private sectors proved crucial in ensuring a strong recovery. Inflation remains manageable. While headline inflation averaged 4.5 percent in 2021, there was a noted slowdown in price increases toward the end of the year. Inflation returned to within-target range in December at 3.6 percent. This was aligned with the BSP’s projections that inflation will ease toward the midpoint of the target range of 2 to 4 percent this year and in 2023. The country’s full-year balance of payments registered a surplus of 1.35 billion US dollars. This was largely composed of inflows from personal remittances, trade in services, net foreign borrowings by the national government, and foreign direct investments. Consequently, gross international reserves stood at 108.9 billion US dollars as of end-2021. This represents 10.3 months’ worth of import cover, way more than the three-month standard buffer to be considered adequate. Domestic liquidity situation continues to reflect the decisive measures taken by the BSP over the past two years to boost liquidity in the financial system. M3, a broad measure of the economy’s money supply, expanded by 8.3 percent to 14.8 trillion pesos in November 2021. Domestic claims grew in line with sustained borrowings by the national government and the improvement in bank lending to non-financial private corporations. Remittances from overseas Filipinos are also on the rise, with cumulative personal remittances aggregating to 31.6 billion US dollars as of end-November 2021. 1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches This represents a year-to-date growth of 5.3 percent. Our banking system demonstrates resilience. Total assets grew by 7.0 percent year-on-year to 20.4 trillion pesos as of end-November 2021, while total deposits rose by 9.2 percent to 15.8 trillion pesos. The capital adequacy ratio of universal and commercial banks stood at 16.9 percent on a solo basis as of the third quarter of 2021. The industry’s liquidity coverage ratio was at a healthy 197.5 percent as of end-October 2021. We are pleased to note that banks are expanding their lending operations. Loans grew by 4.6 percent year-on-year in December 2021. This signals an improvement in consumption and investment activities. Meanwhile, non-performing loans accounted for a manageable 4.3 percent of outstanding loans. The trust industry continues to grow as well, with assets under management or AUM reaching almost 5 trillion pesos as of September 2021. This marks a remarkable increase of one trillion pesos, or 25 percent, from the pre-pandemic level. The continued surge in unit investment trust funds or UITFs in terms of both volume and number of participants has propelled the growth of the industry. UITF assets grew by 22 percent year-onyear to 1.3 trillion pesos by September 2021, with around two million participants. The accessibility of UITFs via various digital platforms significantly contributed to this growth. Trust assets also remain highly liquid, with 90.3 percent classified as investments in highly marketable securities and deposits in banks. The BSP will continue to enhance the regulatory framework for our supervised institutions. In relation to fund management, our priority areas include policy reforms under the Trust Business Model Initiative, digitalization, and sustainable finance. One important upcoming issuance under the Trust Business Model Initiative involves guidelines on performance measurement. This shall set out the BSP’s expectations on the selection of benchmarks for UITFs, based on the principles of fair representation and full disclosure. The issuance aims to establish a common framework across the trust industry on benchmark selection and ensure that clients are provided with the necessary information for them to adequately assess fund performance. As we actively move towards a more digital society, I call on the FMAP and its memberinstitutions to embark on and accelerate your own digital transformation journeys. Digitalization can reduce distribution costs and make financial transactions faster and more convenient. Financial institutions can also employ digital means to serve several clients simultaneously, thus expanding reach. The BSP has issued the Sustainable Finance Framework, which advocates for the integration of sustainability or “Environmental, Social, and Governance,” or ESG, principles into the operations of supervised institutions. While the formal framework is specifically geared toward banks, we strongly encourage fund managers to consider environmental and social risks in your operations as well. ESG investing is a principles-based strategy that can provide long-term favorable financial 2/3 BIS central bankers' speeches returns. I invite the members of the FMAP to adopt ESG principles in your product offerings and investment strategies. Some fund managers already offer ESG funds, with three related UITFs currently available in the domestic market. These had an aggregate AUM of 633.8 million pesos as of September 2021. There are several more ESG funds under development. Given the strong value proposition of ESG-related financial products, the BSP expects fund managers to be diligent in ensuring that your chosen investment outlets adhere to the ESG investment standards. This entails sufficient evaluation of the issuers’ sustainability-related commitments. Moreover, funds that are marketed as ESG products should have adequate disclosure on sustainability goals and impact. As responsible actors in the sustainable finance space, your promotion of investor protection is of the utmost importance. In closing, let me extend my well wishes to the new officers of the FMAP. May you live up to the confidence placed in you by the membership. As the BSP continues to enhance the regulatory framework, I count on the FMAP and its leadership to be effective partners in fostering increasing digitalization and sustainable finance. Together, we can achieve more inclusive and sustainable financial markets! Thank you and mabuhay tayong lahat! 3/3 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Fitch Ratings Annual Review, Manila, 7 February 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Navigating the Philippine economy toward recovery Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Fitch Ratings Annual Review, Manila, 7 February 2022. * * * Good afternoon. Recent developments show the Philippines is on the road to recovery, with encouraging signs suggesting that the worst may be behind us. The economy grew by 5.6 percent last year, exceeding the government forecasts of 5 to 5.5 percent and reversing the recession in 2020. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in November 2021 from a peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020. Full-year inflation averaged 3.9 percent in 2021 based on 2018 CPI series. Inflation further eased to 3 percent in January 2022, supporting the narrative that inflation is on a downward trajectory. The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) kept the inflation target range at 3.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point for 2022–2024. Inflation expectations are well anchored, as shown by surveys of private sector economists and forecasts of multilateral agencies. Overall liquidity conditions are sound. In December 2021, M3 expanded by 7.7 percent. Lending by universal and commercial banks rose for the fifth straight month, up 4.6 percent year-on-year. This signals an improvement in consumption and investment activities. Exposure to bad debts remained manageable. The NPL ratio of the Philippine banking system settled at 4.3 percent as of end-November 2021. Banks are well capitalized. Capital adequacy ratio of UKBs is well above the BSP’s minimum requirement of 10 percent and the Bank for International Settlements’ 8 percent. The country’s external sector remains robust, supported by steady sources of foreign exchange. Remittances rose by 5.2 percent year-on-year to USD28.4 billion in January to November 2021 while BPO revenues grew by 8.3 percent to USD17.4 billion in January to September 2021. FDIs grew by 48.1 percent in the first 10 months of last year to USD8.1 billion, as foreign investor sentiment improved. External debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 27.3 percent as of end-September 2021 compared with about 60.0 percent in mid-2000s. Gross international reserves (GIR) stood at a hefty US$108.9 billion as of end-December 2021, providing ample cushion against unforeseen demand for foreign exchange. Goods exports rose by 16 percent and imports by 30.2 percent in January to September 2021 amid strong rebound in demand from major trade partners. 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches Moving on to the BSP’s crisis response… Through a series of rate cuts, the BSP brought the policy rate to a record low of 2.0 percent. Up to now, the policy rate is kept at this level. We also reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to increase loanable funds. We incentivized lending to MSMEs—a sector hit hard by the pandemic—by treating new loans to them as compliance with the reserve requirement. We temporarily increased the single borrowers’ limit, raised the ceiling for real estate loans, and allowed grace period for loan payments. We likewise put a cap on credit card charges at 2 percent per month and put a temporary interest-rate ceiling on short-term loans from lending and financing companies. The BSP also helped government finance its COVID-19 response through provisional advances and dividends. In addition, we remitted P38.9 billion in total dividends to the national government for 2020 and 2021. Other initiatives are setting the stage for the Philippines’ long-term development. With financial digitalization, the BSP targets at least half of retail transactions done digitally and at least 70 percent of adult Filipinos owning a transaction account by 2023. The following legislative measures will bring enormous benefits to the economy… Meantime, tax reforms will rebuild fiscal space. Investments in human capital and infrastructure will raise productivity. Freer markets, such as the recently liberalized rice sector, will lead to lower prices. And digitalization will improve efficiency in financial and public services. All of these structural reforms, ramped up vaccine rollout, and enhanced management of COVID-19 risks, support the country’s full recovery. The numbers show the macroeconomic targets in the next two years. Allow me to end with three key points: First, the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals are sound. Second, while uncertainties remain, enhanced health risk management and structural reforms will help sustain economic recovery. Third, the BSP choose to keep a patient hand on various policy levers to determine the timing and pace of our exit strategy. We will always rely on data to guide our future policy decisions. 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Asia-Pacific ESG Investors Summit, Manila, 9 February 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Sustainable finance and its impact on the Philippines’ post-pandemic economic outlook Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Asia-Pacific ESG Investors Summit, Manila, 9 February 2022. * * * To our fellow advocates of sustainability, co-speakers, and everyone here present, good morning. It is a pleasure to speak in front of the “Pillars of the Green Industry” to share the BSP’s critical role in promoting the sustainability agenda in the financial system. Let me start by providing you with an update on the Philippines’ economic outlook, followed by the BSP’s initiatives and key milestones in our sustainability playbook. Lastly, I will leave some insights on how these sustainable aspirations tie-in to post-pandemic economic outlook. We welcome the year 2022 with optimism. Amid the threats from the evolving variants of Covid19 virus, we see that the Philippine economy will be on a strong growth trajectory. The strong fiscal and monetary measures complemented by appropriate health interventions helped boost the country’s better than expected economic growth of 5.6 percent in 2021. Meanwhile, the country’s headline inflation rate averaged 4.5 percent in 2021. We see inflation easing to within the target range of 2 to 4 percent this year. The country’s gross international reserves remain hefty at $108.9 billion as of end-December 2021. This GIR level is equivalent to 10.3 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. Personal remittances from overseas Filipinos posted an increase of 5.3 percent to USD31.6 billion for the first eleven months of 2021 as compared to same period in 2020. The strong growth in cash remittances provides a consistent supply of foreign exchange and source for consumer spending. The peso appreciated by an average of 0.75 percent or P49.3/$1 in 2021 from 49.6/$1 the previous year. The Philippine banking system remains sound with ample capital and liquidity buffers to support continued growth in assets and deposits amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The banking system’s total assets grew year-on-year by 7 percent to P20.4 trillion as of endNovember 2021 from the expansion of funds, mainly from deposits, channeled to lending and investment activities. Bank credit growth was observed with total loan portfolio expanding year-on-year by 4.3 percent to P11 trillion as of end-November 2021, which is mainly attributed to real estate lending. The quality of the banking sector loan portfolio remained manageable and within BSP’s expectations with total non-performing loans at 4.3 percent as of end-November 2021. During the same period, NPL coverage ratio remains high at 87.1 percent. The banking system posted an annualized net profit growth of 8.5 percent year-on-year or P199.8 billion as of end-September 2021. Banks maintained sufficient capital and liquidity buffers. The capital adequacy ratios of banks are well-above the minimum thresholds of 10 percent set by the BSP and 8 percent by the Bank for International Settlements. As of end-September 2021, universal and commercial banks 1/6 BIS central bankers' speeches registered a risk-based CAR of 17.4 percent on a consolidated basis. Meanwhile, liquidity buffers remain relatively stable, with liquidity coverage ratio of universal and commercial banks at 197.5 percent on a solo basis as of end-October 2021 or almost twice the 100 percent minimum threshold. The high LCR indicates the ability of banks to fund its shortterm funding requirements including liquidity shocks. Similarly, the Minimum Liquidity Ratio of stand-alone thrift, rural and cooperative banks surpassed the 20 percent minimum. Despite the noted resilience of the banking sector, the BSP extended in January 2022 the prudential and operational relief measures needed to sustain the momentum of bank lending and to ensure continued access to financial services by the public, including the vulnerable sectors of the economy. This is in response to the recent surge in COVID-19 cases in the country. The regulatory relief measures include, among others, the extension of the effectivity of the 30 percent single borrower’s limit (SBL), non-imposition of sanctions for SBL breach by foreign bank branches subject to a ceiling, reduction of credit risk weight for performing loans to micro, small and medium enterprises, and reduction of the MLR of stand-alone thrift, rural and cooperative banks, until end-December 2022. That said, the BSP recognizes that sustainability objectives play a significant role in achieving our core mandates of maintaining price and financial stability. We also see green investments as one of the integral tools to recovery. A study by the OECD shows that the implementation of properly designed green stimulus measures can deliver economic and environmental benefits in the aftermath of a crisis. This was demonstrated by countries that used green stimulus approach consequent to the Global Financial Crisis. These measures include investments in energy efficiency, green infrastructure, support for environment-related research and development, support for low-carbon vehicles, among others. Also, according to the International Finance Corporation of the World Bank Group, investments in the Philippines and in three other big emerging markets – China, Indonesia, and Vietnam – may reach 5.1 trillion US dollars if these economies move towards a green recovery approach postpandemic. Indeed, the pandemic recovery presents an opportunity to scale-up investments in green projects and activities. It is in this context that the BSP plays a pivotal role in providing a sustainable regulatory pathway that will enable the financial system to mobilize credit and capital towards sustainable or green projects and activities. As such, BSP launched the Sustainable Central Banking Program in 2019. This sums up our role as enabler, mobilizer, and doer, in championing the sustainability agenda. As an enabler, we aim to provide a regulatory environment that will empower banks to take on the sustainable path and to drive sustainable finance and activities. Towards this end, we issued the first two sets of regulations covering the Sustainable Finance and the Environmental and Social Risk Management Frameworks. Moving forward, we will issue guidelines on the management of environmental and social risks in relation to the investment activities of banks, climate stress testing and prudential reporting. 2/6 BIS central bankers' speeches We are also considering the use of regulatory incentives to nudge banks to extend green loans or finance sustainable investments. We are currently studying the use of preferential rediscount rates or provision of higher loan values, which will largely depend on the results of our ongoing assessment. The BSP likewise proposed the recognition of sustainable finance as one of the allowable forms of compliance with the required credit to the agriculture sector in the proposed bills seeking to amend the Agri-Agra Law. Allow me to walk you through the two sustainability-related Frameworks issued by the BSP which will facilitate in mobilizing funds to green or sustainable investments and projects. The Sustainable Finance Framework, issued in April 2020, provides the overarching principles in integrating sustainability principles and environmental, social and governance considerations in banks’ corporate and risk governance frameworks, strategies and operations. There are three key elements in the Framework: First, the fundamental role of banks’ board and senior management in leading and institutionalizing the adoption of sustainability principles within the organization. With this, we expect the board and senior management to promote a culture that embeds environmental and social risk consciousness in business decisions and in the overall strategic thrusts of the organization. Second, the adoption of an Environmental and Social Risk Management System which covers policies, procedures, and tools to identify, assess, monitor, and mitigate exposures to environmental and social risks. This is the subject of the second phase of our policy issuance. Third, the disclosure requirements, which we consider as a key element in driving sustainable finance as it promotes transparency and market discipline. We recognize the importance of adequate and quality disclosures in making informed green credit and investment decisions. Hence, we expect banks to disclose the fundamental components of their sustainability plan and strategy in their Annual Reports. We expect banks to fully implement the Framework in 2023. Anchored on the principles laid down in the Sustainable Finance Framework, the BSP issued more specific guidelines on the management of environmental and social risks in relation to credit and operational risks last October 2021. The ESRM Framework provides detailed expectations on the board in setting strategic environmental and social objectives, considering material environmental and social risks in the banks’ capital planning process, institutionalizing a capacity building program to equip all personnel in managing such risks and adopting an effective communication strategy. In terms of credit risk, we expect banks to embed environmental and social risks in their credit risk strategies and credit risk management system. This may include progressively increasing targets on the proportion of the loan portfolio into green or sustainable investments as well as incorporating the environmental and social risks in the entire credit process, from underwriting, review and provisioning, among others. Moreover, the framework expects banks to conduct vulnerability assessments which will later on connect into their business continuity plans. This is critical in ensuring the ability of banks to withstand and quickly resume operations during disruptions. We have witnessed how the health crisis and severe weather events, like Super Typhoon 3/6 BIS central bankers' speeches Odette, disrupted the operations of banks. This has highlighted the importance of integrating environmental and social risks in the banks’ operational risk management system, and in turn, building their operational resilience. As mobilizer, BSP influences banks to embrace sustainable business and responsible investment decisions. As part of greening the BSP’s investment process, we are gradually incorporating sustainability considerations in our portfolio management. We are also reviewing the strategic allocation of investments towards those that espouse environmental, social and governance principles. In fact, the BSP has invested USD 550 million in the Green Bond Fund managed by the Bank for International Settlements. We look to invest more funds to the Asian Green Bond Fund to be launched by the BIS in 2022. Through these actions, we lead by example and trust that banks will follow suit. Our initiatives are guided by our active participation in global and local conversations on sustainable finance. At the global front, the BSP is a member of the International Finance Corporation – supported Sustainable Banking Network (SBN) and is a plenary member of the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System or NGFS since July 2020. At the national level, the BSP, through the Financial Sector Forum, leads the financial sector in harmonizing regulatory expectations on sustainable finance, including the governance, risk management and disclosure aspects. Meanwhile, the BSP co-chairs, with the Department of Finance, the Interagency Technical Working Group on Sustainable Finance or the “Green Force”. The Green Force, consisting of 18 government departments and agencies, is the country’s response to adopt a whole of government approach in mitigating climate change and other environment related risks, building our resilience against these risks, and ushering the flow of finance to green or sustainable projects. The Green Force endeavors to harmonize all government policies concerning green and sustainable projects as we see the need to establish a cohesive action plan that will cut across all sectors. Among the key milestones of the Green Force is the development of the Philippine Sustainable Finance Roadmap and the Sustainable Finance Guiding Principles which were launched in October 2021. The Roadmap sets out the high-level strategic plans to promote sustainable finance and address climate change. On the other hand, the Guiding Principles provide the standard considerations in identifying which economic sectors or activities can contribute to sustainable development with special focus on addressing climate change. The Guiding Principles is based on principles-based taxonomy that will enable investors to identify opportunities that comply with sustainability criteria for high-impact investments. The same will help banks and financial institutions to create and structure sustainable finance products and support financing and investment decisions. 4/6 BIS central bankers' speeches We aim to quicken the implementation of the taxonomy through the issuance of more detailed standards to be developed by the Green Force working clusters. The Financial Sector Forum will likewise facilitate alignment and implementation of the common standards across the financial sector. With these developments, we believe that banks are better equipped in scaling up sustainable or green finance and in promoting the low carbon transition financing. But we recognize that there are first mover banks. In fact, of 15 issuers of green, social and sustainability bonds in the country, seven are banks. Since 2017, they have issued around USD 2.9 billion worth of sustainable bonds. During the pandemic, two banks have issued social bonds totaling approximately P29 billion to finance the needs of eligible micro, small and medium enterprises. At the regional level, sustainable bond markets in ASEAN+3 continued to expand to USD 415.6 billion as of end-December 2021 with green bonds dominating the market at USD 294.0 billion. Meanwhile, the country is also seen to issue sovereign bond in the international sustainable bond market. The Department of Finance recently launched the Sustainable Finance Framework. This sets out how the National Government intends to raise green, social or sustainability bonds, loans and other debt instruments in the global capital markets. This information presents clear opportunity for banks and investors to build on the strong momentum in the issuance of green and sustainable bonds both at the local and regional markets. Achieving the Nationally Determined Contributions and the Sustainable Development Goals also present an opportunity for sustainable finance. Financial institutions can introduce new and innovative sustainable financial instruments that are responsive to their clients’ needs and at the same time contribute to our carbon emission reduction targets of 75 percent by 2030. These sustainable financial products may also be extended to fund the post-pandemic recovery of the micro, small and medium enterprises and agricultural sectors which were greatly affected by the pandemic. Meanwhile, companies that engage in sustainable projects or activities may benefit from obtaining funding at potentially reduced competitive costs. This may be possible through the concerted efforts of both public and private sectors to develop a pipeline of green investments and to incentivize sustainable finance supplemented with blended finance. With the Philippines being vulnerable to typhoons and climate change related risks due to its geographical location, “green recovery” approach is the ideal to strike the right balance in implementing economic strategies and in building climate resilience. We are confident that our sustainability efforts complemented by favorable macroeconomic fundamentals and sound banking system will all tie in as we move forward to a more stable, resilient, and inclusive Philippine financial system. In closing, I’d like to emphasize the impact of sustainability in our lives. Sustainability is not just a business decision that we have to make, but one that will have impact on our lives and the world as we know it. It’s important that we act now. The sooner we do, the sooner we will reap the benefits of sustainable finance in the post-pandemic world. Thank you and a pleasant day to everyone. 5/6 BIS central bankers' speeches 6/6 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), no occasion, Manila, 15 February 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Fostering cybersecurity for Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) supervised financial institutions Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), no occasion, Manila, 15 February 2022. * * * To the officers and representatives from the Israel Embassy in Manila’s Foreign Trade Administration, members from the Bankers Association of the Philippines, cybersecurity experts, ladies and gentlemen, good day. Let me start by thanking the Israel’s Foreign Trade Administration for organizing this event and gathering experts from the Israeli government and private sector to share best cyber-resilience practices and solutions. We hope to engage in conversation on how Israel’s cybersecurity model and best practices can be adopted here in the Philippines and how all of us can work together in combatting rapidly evolving cyberthreats. With the growing popularity of digital channels especially during the pandemic, cyber-attackers and scammers are increasingly targeting financial consumers to defraud them of their hardearned money. We, at the BSP, consider cybersecurity as one of our strategic priorities. This is in line with our mandate of ensuring stability, safety, and efficiency of the financial system. In fostering cybersecurity, the BSP adopts comprehensive, agile, risk-based, and engaging approach which we term as CARE to stay ahead of our common cyber enemies. This approach cuts across three key areas: first our regulatory policy framework; second proactive monitoring through our surveillance capabilities and lastly, promoting resilience through supervisory and oversight activities. The BSP is adopting policies and regulations to guide banks and other supervised institutions to take on a risk-based approach to cybersecurity management. Since 2013, the BSP has issued several regulations aimed at mitigating the effects of technology and cyber-related risks in BSP Supervised Financial Institutions (BSFIs). These regulations address various facets of technology, such as social media risk management, business continuity management and multi-factor authentication. Recent issuances also include specific guidance on managing data breaches and SMS-based attacks as well as combatting ransomware. Allow me to share with you some major industrywide initiatives to strengthen the industry’s cyber defenses and overall resilience. First, in order to operationalize the BSP’s role as the lead in the Banking Sector Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT) under the Department of Information Communications Technology (DICT), the BSP is developing the Financial Services Cyber Resilience Plan that will serve as the primary framework covering strategies and plans to strengthen cyber resilience in the financial services industry. Second, we are also in the development stage of implementing the Advanced SupTech Engine for Risk-Based Compliance, or what we call ASTERisC*. 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches This is unified RegTech and SupTech solution that will streamline and automate regulatory supervision, reporting and compliance assessment of BSFIs’ cybersecurity risk management. Third, the BSP continuously engages with the BSFIs through the Bankers Association of the Philippines Cyber Incident Database or BAPCID. BAPCID is currently provided by CyberInt, which is a cybersecurity service provider based in Israel. It is a web-based portal and an industry cyber threat and best practices sharing platform where participants can report incidents and threats anonymously, receive threat intelligence feeds and threat advisories from the BSP. Lastly, the BSP is currently coordinating with relevant government agencies and industry associations for a joint consumer protection campaign and message amplification to raise overall cyber awareness in the country. Given the supervisory expectations and industry-wide cybersecurity initiatives, there are several ways Israel companies can help BSFIs in increasing their cybersecurity capabilities and maturity and the financial sector in general. Considering the sophistication and maturity of Israel in terms of cybersecurity controls and management, the BSP and the BSFIs would greatly appreciate hearing Israel’s expertise, knowledge and technology in the following areas: Cybersecurity trainings, education, and capacity build-up; Security Operations Center (SOC); Incident response and forensic investigation; Information sharing and threat-intelligence platform; and Set-up and establishment of Israel’s Financial Sector and National CERTs. In closing, I hope that this session will strengthen ties and cooperation between the Philippines and Israel so that our respective financial services sectors remain safe, innovative, and resilient in the digital economy. Thank you for your attention. 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Credit Suisse Briefing, Manila, 17 February 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: An update on the Philippine economy Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Credit Suisse Briefing, Manila, 17 February 2022. * * * Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for this opportunity to present developments in the Philippine economy. In 2021, the economy grew by 5.6 percent, exceeding the national government’s 5.0-5.5 percent target. On the demand side, growth in 2021 was driven by gross capital formation, as well as household and government consumption. On the supply side, services and industry sectors rebounded from the contractions in 2020 and contributed to economic expansion. Successful management of risks through safe and calibrated reopening of the economy aided last year’s growth. An acceleration in the vaccination program may result in faster output growth. On the other hand, the emergence of new Covid-19 variants which would require more mobility restrictions could dampen growth prospects. Employment improved as strict quarantine measures were relaxed. The unemployment rate declined to 6.6 percent in December 2021 from a peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020. The services sector remained the biggest employer, accounting for 56.6 percent of the 46.3 million employed Filipinos in December. The agriculture sector followed with 25.6 percent, while industry had a 17.8-percent share. Using the new 2018-based consumer price index (CPI) series, inflation further eased to 3.0 percent in January 2022 from 3.2 percent in December 2021. The January 2022 inflation rate was at the midpoint of the Government’s inflation target range of 3.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point. For 2021, using the new base year 2018, inflation averaged 3.9 percent. Our latest baseline forecast indicates that inflation is to settle at 3.7 percent in 2022 and 3.3 percent in 2023, well within the target range of 2 to 4 percent. Against this backdrop, the prevailing policy stance is appropriate, with the manageable inflation outlook and anchored inflation expectations. For 2022–2024, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) retained the inflation target range at 3.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point. We expect liquidity in the financial system to remain adequate to support credit activity and broad-based economic recovery. Domestic liquidity expanded by 7.7 percent year-on-year to P15.3 trillion in December 2021, following an 8.3-percent expansion in November. Through various liquidity-easing measures, the BSP has injected P2.3 trillion, around 11 percent of GDP, into the financial system. 1/4 BIS central bankers' speeches The country’s external sector continues to provide sufficient buffers against the potential external headwinds. Gross international reserves, which stood at US$108.45 billion as of end-January 2022, continue to provide ample cushion against unforeseen demand for foreign exchange liquidity. This level was equivalent to 10.3 months worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. It was also 5.9 and 8.6 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual and original maturities, respectively. Amid strong rebound in external demand from trade partners, exports of goods increased by 14.5 percent in 2021 to US$74.64 billion. Following the gradual resumption of domestic economic activities and restocking of inventories, imports of goods grew by a much faster rate of 31.1 percent to US$117.78 billion over the same period. Given these trade figures, the country’s overall balance of payments position posted a surplus of US$1.35 billion in 2021, from a surplus of US$16.02 billion in 2020. The country’s external sector is supported by structural foreign exchange flows in the form of remittances, business process outsourcing receipts, and foreign direct investments. Cash remittances from overseas Filipinos are steady growing by 5.2 percent to USD28.4 billion in January to November 2021. BPO revenues recovered in January-September 2021, up 8.3 percent to USD17.4 billion. Net foreign direct investments in January to November 2021 increased by 52.5 percent to USD9.2 billion. This FDI level is higher than the full year level of US$8.7 billion in 2019 and US$6.6 billion in 2020. Foreign investor sentiment is clearly rising. This bodes well for domestic job creation. Moreover, favorable external debt profile provides cushion against external shocks. External debt-to-GDP ratio settled at 27.3 percent as of end-September 2021 compared with 60.0 percent in the mid-2000s. Debt repayment schedule is manageable and financially sustainable over the medium to long term because of two factors: first, bulk of the country’s external debt have medium and long-term maturity, and second, they carry fixed interest rates. On the banking sector, the Philippine banking system remains sound and stable. Preliminary data as of end-November 2021 show that total assets of the banking system grew by 7.0 percent year-on-year to P20.4 trillion amid improving economic activity. Asset expansion was mainly funded by deposits, which increased by 9.2 percent to P15.8 trillion.. Banks remain profitable. As of end-September 2021, banks’ net profit grew by 35.8 percent yearon-year. Return on assets (RoA) was steady at 1.0 percent, while return on equity (RoE) rose to 8.1 percent from 7.9 percent in the previous year. Credit activity has also improved. Loans extended by universal and commercial banks rose 4.6 percent in December, up for the fifth straight month. 2/4 BIS central bankers' speeches Banks are lending more to MSMEs following the BSP’s move to count loans to MSMEs as alternative compliance with the reserve requirement. As of the week ending 20 January 2022, P209.2 billion worth of loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) were used as alternative compliance to the reserve requirement, up from P8.7 billion reported in April 2020. To further support MSMEs, the BSP extended the effectivity of some relief measures until end2022, including the increase in the single borrower’s limit from 25 to 30 percent. Asset quality of banks remains sound. The non-performing loan ratio of the Philippine banking system fell to 3.99 percent in December from 4.35 percent in November. Based on industry feedback, banks expect their NPL ratios to remain relatively low and loan-loss provisions to stay high. This is consistent with the BSP’s projection that NPL ratio of banks will remain in the single-digit territory in the coming years, well below the double-digit figures seen in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. The Financial Institutions Strategic Transfer or FIST Act serves as a standby mechanism for banks to dispose their non-performing assets. This law, complemented by recently issued guidelines on the prudential treatment of restructured loans and provisioning requirements, will support effective management of banks’ NPLs. Banks are well capitalized. As of end-September 2021, capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of universal and commercial banks improved to 16.9 percent and 17.4 percent on solo and consolidated bases, respectively, from the previous year’s 16.3 percent and 16.7 percent. Banks’ risk-taking activities are supported by adequate and high-quality capital. As of endSeptember 2021, the common equity tier 1 ratio of universal and commercial banks improved to 15.7 percent and 16.3 percent on solo and consolidated bases, respectively, from the previous year’s 15.5 percent and 16.0 percent. Liquidity buffers also remained well-above the minimum threshold of 100 percent. In particular, the universal and commercial bank industry’s solo liquidity coverage ratio reached 197.7 percent as of end-November 2021, while the net stable funding ratio stood at 142.8 percent on solo basis as of end-August 2021. The minimum liquidity ratios of stand-alone banks surpassed the 20 percent minimum. Looking ahead, the Philippines aims not only to regain what was lost from the COVID crisis. We want the post-covid-19 economy to be stronger, more technologically advanced, more sustainable, and more inclusive than ever before. On our end, we have two major objectives under our Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap• First is to have at least half of financial transactions in the country done digitally; and second, to onboard at least 70 percent of Filipino adults into the formal financial system through transaction account ownership. With the pandemic as a catalyst, we are on our way to achieve this goal sooner rather than later. On sustainability, the BSP has issued regulations requiring banks to adopt sustainability principles in their operations, such as by extending funding for green projects. Finally, let me outline our exit strategy from our extraordinary monetary accommodative measures. The BSP’s exit strategy will begin with the recalibration of the BSP’s monetary operations to 3/4 BIS central bankers' speeches ensure that our accommodative monetary policy translates to short-term interest rates. Next, we unwind liquidity-infusing measures, such as provisional advances to the government and alternative compliance with reserve requirements. The BSP looks to gradually unwind its direct funding support to the national government with the expected improvement in government’s finances. The unwinding process has started. The third component entails the reduction in monetary accommodation. We shall eventually raise policy interest rate as soon as prospects for the economy have materially improved. Finally, we shall build our buffers to ensure that the economy is prepared and resilient should another crisis strike. The timing of the exit remains very much uncertain at this juncture. Therefore, we leave some room for flexibility in policymaking to account for uncertainty and risk, especially as the situation remains very fluid. Inflation and growth outlook over the medium term and the associated risks will continue to guide the timing and conditions of BSP’s exit strategy. Consistent with the BSP’s data-dependent approach to policymaking, the BSP will continue to monitor the evolution of various domestic factors, including liquidity and credit dynamics, financial sector risks, and the state of public health, as well as emerging global developments and potential spillovers. Given the nascent state of recovery, our priority is to ensure the sustainability of the recovery and prevent long-term scarring effects. Having said this, the BSP is mindful of the need to strike a delicate balance between providing adequate stimulus to the economy and preventing the buildup of inflationary pressures and risks to financial stability. Moving forward, the BSP’s actions and policy thrusts will continue to be anchored on its core mandates. On monetary policy: the BSP will remain vigilant to ensure that the monetary policy stance continues to support economic recovery to the extent that the inflation outlook allows. On the financial sector: the BSP will intensify its monitoring and surveillance of supervised institutions to ensure they remain responsive to emerging risks and will promote continued soundness, stability, resilience, and inclusivity of the banking system. On the external sector: the BSP will remain supportive of policies that will help strengthen the economy’s resilience to external shocks. These include maintaining a market-determined exchange rate, keeping a comfortable level of reserves, and keeping the country’s external debt manageable. In closing, I would like to highlight that the sound macroeconomic fundamentals of the country will carry us through the recovery process. The BSP will continue to support the economy for as long as necessary. Monetary policy will complement efforts by fiscal authorities to achieve full recovery of the economy within the soonest possible time. Thank you for your attention. 4/4 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Opening remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Regional Macroeconomic Conference Series, Manila, 21 February 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Opening remarks Macroeconomic Conference Series for the Regional Opening remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Regional Macroeconomic Conference Series, Manila, 21 February 2022. * * * To our partners from the banking and business sectors, the academe, colleagues from the government, members of the Monetary Board, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. To our guests from Davao and SOCCSKSARGEN Regions, "maayong buntag." And for those from the Bangsamoro region, "mapiya mapita." Welcome you all to our Regional Macroeconomic Conference Series (RMCS). This is the second leg of the regional conference since its launch in Cebu City on September 28, 2021. The RCMS is one of Regional Operations' many efforts to bring the BSP closer to the Filipino people. We are doing this virtually for now but I look forward to when we can finally do this face to face. In any case, may the discussion ahead harness a broad spectrum of opinions and insights, your experience on the ground is valuable to us as we take these in consideration in our policy diretions. Two topics stood out as your top concerns through a survey: 1) recent economic developments focusing on a regional perspective and 2) general banking system developments. Today's presentation will focus not only on the Davao Region development but also on SOCCSKSARGEN and BARMM, particularly Maguindanao and Cotabato City. Overall, the economy of Mindanao remains afloat despite the pandemic. Davao Region is an emerging investment hub and is becoming a sustainable place for global business . On the other hand, SOCCSKSARGEN Region successfully hurdles the challenge with its competitive cities and provinces leaping strides. Meanwhile, BARMM achieved several significant investments feats and withstood gaps and challenges . While our current experiences pose challenges, it is also a reminder that a robust financial and banking system combined with proactive policies can mitigate the impact of CoVID-19. But achieving economic recovery requires contributions from the monetary and fiscal fronts, and the private sector as well. In that sense, this event is timely as we engage with all of you as partners in pursuit of the country’s economic recovery. With this in mind, let me share share with you a quote from German writer Johann Wolfgang von Goethe [Gur-ta] which is relevant to this respect. "Let everyone sweep in front of his door, and the whole world will be clean." It is indeed a shared responsibility to continue to create a better, more inclusive approach that can effectively sustain our agenda for economic growth. Only by working together can we recover and build better. I am confident that this virtual conference would bear a productive and positive outcome. I look forward to a fruitful engagement. Maraming salamat at Mabuhay! 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Chinese Filipino Business Club, Inc. National Convention, Manila, 23 February 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: New normal, new approach, new horizon Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Chinese Filipino Business Club, Inc. National Convention, Manila, 23 February 2022. * * * Good day to all. I am pleased to join you in the national convention of the Chinese Filipino Business Club, Inc. with the theme: “New Normal, New Approach, New Horizon” Indeed, the pandemic has changed the way we view and do things. Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. The unprecedented nature of the crisis called for an equally unprecedented response, and the entire government, including the BSP, acted promptly and decisively. We at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas moved fast to prevent the initial onslaught of the pandemic from damaging the economic and financial system. We started our policy cut as early as February 2020—before the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a pandemic and before the country had its first local virus transmission. Succeeding cuts, to date, resulted in a cumulative reduction of 200 basis points, or from four percent to a record low of two percent. We reduced the reserve requirement ratio to increase the volume of loanable funds in the system. As allowed by the new BSP charter, we extended emergency financing to the national government through a repurchase agreement. We also purchased government securities in the secondary market, and remitted dividends to the national government. To encourage lending to micro, small, and medium enterprises, we reduced reserve requirements and allowed MSME loans to qualify as compliance with the required reserve ratio. In addition, we temporarily increased the single borrowers’ limit and raised the ceiling for real estate loans of universal and commercial banks. To provide relief to affected borrowers, we excluded some loans from being tagged as past-due or non-performing and allowed a grace period for loan settlement and restructuring of rediscounted loans. The silver lining of the pandemic is that it has fast-tracked the digital transformation, particularly in the area of payments. The growth of digital payment innovations promotes further financial inclusion as digital payment innovations lower transaction costs and eliminate barriers to owning a transaction account. As you know, digital payments have become increasingly essential amid the pandemic. This is evident in the substantial increase in transactions in PESONet and InstaPay. Last year, we launched the second use case of QR Ph to facilitate interoperable QR-enabled person-to-merchant payments or QR Ph P2M. Through the QR Ph P2M facility, customers can pay a wider set of merchants digitally, ranging from large businesses such as appliance stores to MSMEs such as online sellers. Through these, we are optimistic of achieving our goal of digitizing at least half of all retail 1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches payments and onboarding 70 percent of Filipino adults to the formal financial system. Approximately two years into the pandemic, the BSP’s actions proved to be in the right direction. The country’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound. Economic activity is vastly improving. The sustained implementation of targeted fiscal initiatives, as well as the acceleration of the vaccination program, should help boost market confidence and economic recovery. The economy appears to have turned the corner and looks set for faster growth. The domestic economy grew 7.1 percent in the third quarter of 2021 following a remarkable 12percent expansion in the second quarter. We can expect a GDP growth of 5.5 percent in 2021, 7 to 9 percent in 2022, and 6 to 7 percent in 2023 and 2024. This is based on the government’s projections. On inflation, BSP is forecasting 2 to 4 percent in 2022 up to 2024, provided the national government continues to address supply-side factors affecting food items. The December 2021 inflation of 3.6 percent falls within the 2 to 4 percent target range of the government. My optimism for the future is grounded on what government has done in recent years: Tax reform. Investment in human capital. Golden age of infrastructure. Rice liberalization, and Digitalization in banking and government services. These reforms have a positive effect on our desire to keep prices reasonable and steady, the fiscal system sound, and the economy efficient and competitive. On inflation, let me remind you that everyone benefits from reasonable and stable prices, especially the fixed-income earners and the poor. That is why I support the three pieces of legislation aimed at liberalizing our economy. First is amendments to the Retail Trade Liberalization Act, which will lower the minimum paid-up capital for foreign retailers. Second is the amendments to the 80-year-old Public Service Act, which will open up key economic sectors, including telecommunications and airlines. Last but not the least is the amendments to the Foreign Investments Act, which will encourage foreign professionals to bring their practice, know-how, and technical expertise to the Philippines. With these game-changing reforms, we can achieve real change in the lives of ordinary Filipinos through more and better jobs and more competitive economy. At this juncture, allow me to introduce the polymer banknote, which will begin circulation by the middle of this year. In line with global best practices, the BSP continually seeks ways to improve Philippine currency. For comparison, central banks around the world improve the designs of their banknotes every 10 years, on average. Our current series of banknotes first went into circulation more than 10 years ago. Compared to paper banknotes, polymer banknotes are more hygienic, difficult to counterfeit, durable, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly than paper banknotes. The chemical component of a polymer banknote makes its surface smooth and resistant to dirt, 2/3 BIS central bankers' speeches bacteria, and viruses. Polymer notes can be washed and sanitized without damage, unlike paper bills. The production of polymer notes enables the adoption of more security features, which deters counterfeiting. Polymer notes are estimated to last at least 2.5 times longer than paper banknotes and can withstand extreme temperatures. For this reason, polymer notes need to be replaced less frequently, reducing the overall cost of banknote production. Moreover, when no longer useable due to wear and tear, polymer banknotes can be recycled into various products, such as building materials and furniture. So not only are polymer notes more sanitary and secure, they are also cost-effective and sustainable. Now before I end, allow me to share some food for thought. Every now and then, an unprecedented crisis will come along that will naturally consume the time and effort of our politicians and policymakers. The appropriate behavior is to address the core of the crisis and not let the pandemic derail our long-term goals. Let us continue working not only to regain our pre-pandemic trajectory, but to achieve a steady and sustainable path of development. Thank you very much for your attention. 3/3 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Signing Ceremony for Architecture and Engineering Design Services for the New BSP Complex, Manila, 27 February 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Message for the Signing Ceremony for Architecture and Engineering Design Services for the New Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Complex Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Signing Ceremony for Architecture and Engineering Design Services for the New BSP Complex, Manila, 27 February 2022. * * * Good day, everyone. A year ago, we envisioned a new BSP Complex to rise here at the New Clark City—one that will become a global benchmark for a smart, green, and modern facility that promotes environmental sustainability and efficiency. To transform that vision into a master development plan, the BSP searched for the best architectural and engineering design which will bring our vision into fruition. The architectural and engineering design will cover the development of 21.32 hectares of land for the construction of a new BSP office building, BSP data centers, command centers, museum, academic buildings, sports complex, and commercial stalls in the non-restricted and semirestricted zones of the new BSP Complex. The design will incorporate a water feature and several greeneries that will allow a comfortable, relaxing, and healthy atmosphere for the employees and visitors of the BSP – one that is available for the entire community. The design will welcome people with open spaces that have extensive and robust security to safeguard the BSP’s currency production, data center, and IT systems. Today, I am pleased to inform you that after undergoing very stringent procurement processes, we have found the design we were looking for. The conceptual design which AIDEA, (pronounced like “Idea”) presented best represents our vision of a smart, green, and modern BSP. The development plan embodies inclusivity, reflective of the BSP’s drive for financial inclusion. With easily accessible, and pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly circulation paths, we are constructing a new BSP Complex that is “for the people.” Furthermore, a museum and a sports complex will help nurture this inclusive environment. The BSP recognizes the impact of climate change in the country’s financial system. Thus, we are integrating sustainability principles in all ways possible, especially in this infrastructure. This design resonates well with our sustainability agenda. It incorporates sustainable and green design elements and introduces multi-dimensions of sustainability, wellness strategies, and technologies. There will be smart building systems. Low-energy materials and processes will be used and observed. And onsite renewable energy will be utilized. In line with the BSP’s efforts toward digital transformation, the new BSP complex will also use technological advancements to promote a digital lifestyle without taking away personal interactions within members of the community. 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches We are grateful for the efforts that AIDEA put together in this master development plan. The amount of hard work and the thought process involved in the development of the plan show how well you understood our intention to capture the messages of strength, stability, sustainability, and resilience. We are glad to welcome you onboard, and like your concept for the main building, this day marks two hands reaching out for the Filipino – yours and ours. The BSP which will rise here will not just be a regular government office but embodies BSP’s vision and aspirations for the country. What will rise here is a BSP complex that is greener, better, smarter, and for the people. Thank you, everyone. May we all enjoy this wonderful day! # 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Sandbox Program Launch, Manila, 28 February 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Digital finance - a thrust toward financial inclusion Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Sandbox Program Launch, Manila, 28 February 2022. * * * Officers and members of the Fintech Alliance PH and Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Philippines, and our financial inclusion partners, good morning! The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is pleased to see the private sector play an active role in catalyzing the development of accessible, affordable, and user-friendly financial products and services, such as through initiatives like the Alibaba Cloud’s Project AsiaForward Sandbox Program. We have seen how our neighbors harnessed the tangible benefits of financial technology (fintech) innovations. In Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia introduced its regulatory sandbox in 2016. The framework provided a flexible regulatory environment that allowed fintech companies to experiment in a production environment. In Thailand, the Bank of Thailand, Securities and Exchange Commission, and Office of Insurance Commission each introduced its own regulatory sandbox. As a result, e-KYC was launched; interest rate for digital savings was increased; and the volume and quality of digital lending were improved. In the Philippines, the significance of digital finance in achieving financial inclusion is highlighted in the recently launched National Strategy Financial Inclusion, or NSFI 2022–2028. The NSFI intends to harness the potential of digital finance in creating better consumer outcomes, and empowering consumers to achieve their life aspirations. The NSFI is banking on the capability of digital technologies to facilitate innovations that enable the delivery of fit-forpurpose financial services to the unserved and underserved sectors. One of the strategic initiatives identified in the NSFI is the implementation of an industry sandbox for digital finance innovations. Over the years, the BSP has embraced innovative technologies to bridge financial inclusion gaps in the Philippines. Under what we call the “test and learn” approach, the BSP has allowed emerging technologies, along with new business models, to be implemented under a limited scope and environment and applicable regulatory framework. With a test and learn approach, the BSP gains a better understanding of the risks of new technology or business model On the side of financial service providers, the test and learn approach gives an opportunity to test the business case of proposed innovations prior to actual launch. This approach was used in 2009 when the BSP issued the electronic money regulation. Fast forward to 2017, during the time when most institutions were hesitant and unsure of the cloud services, the approach was again used to further explore the new technology, resulting in the first cloud deployment for core banking services under a pilot implementation. In line with the objectives of the NSFI, he BSP now seeks to formalize the existing test and learn 1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches approach into a comprehensive and structured regulatory sandbox framework. Under the proposed framework, the BSP shall (1) evaluate sandbox applications as to completeness and eligibility based on standards; (2) determine the viability of the proposed solution by evaluating the test plan; (3) monitor the implementation of the approved test plan; and (4) assess whether the sandbox activity should be terminated or approved for full commercial roll-out. This framework will help direct BSP’s approach to encourage greater participation in our regulatory sandbox, especially for promising businesses that may be hesitant to raise groundbreaking ideas to existing regulators. The BSP has also implemented fintech-related policies and digitally driven initiatives to complement the test and learn approach and regulatory sandbox. First, on digital banking… The BSP has approved six digital banking licenses which we expect will drive greater efficiency in the delivery of financial products and services, especially for the unserved and underserved. Second, on open finance… In January this year, the Open Finance Framework was formally launched, along with the threeyear Open Finance Roadmap 2021–2024. The roadmap outlines priority actions, including the adoption of industry-accepted standards, capacity-building for regulation, and cooperative oversight, which are all fundamental to establishing an Open Finance ecosystem. Lastly, R&D of frontier technologies… The BSP also conducts research and development activities on frontier technologies, such as Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Moving forward, the BSP plans to roll out Project CBDCPh, which is the BSP’s pilot project to build organizational capacity and hands-on knowledge of CBDC design, architecture, technology, and policy implications. To promote the adoption and frequent use of digital financial services, trust in the system must be present. The success of digitalization initiatives rests upon ensuring that consumers are protected online and that they have adequate financial and digital literacy. Accordingly, the BSP has actively supported the proposed Financial Consumer Protection Act (FCPA). The bill is now awaiting signature of President Rodrigo Duterte. When signed into law, the FCPA will provide protection to consumers of financial products and services—including those delivered via digital channels. Specifically, the FCPA requires financial service providers to adopt and implement information security standards to ensure the safety and protection of the financial transactions and data privacy of their clients. The BSP has also created an internal technical working group to proactively address cybersecurity concerns on financial transactions and data privacy of their clients. The BSP has also created an internal technical working group to proactively address cybersecurity concerns on financial transactions and consumer complaints. Among the TW G functions is to coordinate with law enforcement agencies, relevant government authorities, and other stakeholders on cybersecurity management, prosecution of scammers; and prevention of cyber-related threats and scams. Lastly,t he BSP continues to implement a Digital Literacy Program (DLP) to increase public trust and confidence in the digital financial ecosystem and encourage the massive usage of digital 2/3 BIS central bankers' speeches financial services. As the BSP continues to champion financial digitalization initiatives, everyone is called to join this journey of transformation. Let us work together in building an economy that is characterized by a robust, secure, and resilient digital financial infrastructure, with tech-savvy consumers and an innovation-embracing public sector. These collaborations among various stakeholders are what we envision in platforms such as Alibaba Cloud’s sandbox program. Together, let us continue the financial digitalization journey toward a resilient and inclusive future. Thank you very much. 3/3 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Manila Times Economic Forum, Manila, 28 February 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Philippine economic outlook - traversing the recovery path Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Manila Times Economic Forum, Manila, 28 February 2022. * * * Asian Development Bank Country Director Kelly Bird; World Bank Country Director for Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand Ndiamè Diop; Manila Times Chairman and CEO Dante “Klink” Ang II, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Thank you for inviting me to discuss latest economic developments and outlook in this forum aptly titled, “Looking beyond the pandemic endgame.” Today, I will cover the following: (i) first, update on the Philippines’ recent economic performance; (ii) second, the BSP’s support to the economy to ensure strong and sustainable economic recovery; and (iii) third, economic outlook. To begin, after five consecutive quarters of decline, the economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter of last year with a growth of 12 percent. Since then, the country has managed to sustain this positive growth amid a calibrated approach to virus containment. In Q4 2021, the economy grew 7.7 percent, resulting in 5.6-percent full-year growth. The full-year GDP growth exceeded the government’s target range of 5.0 to 5.5 percent for the year and beat market estimates. The job situation has improved. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6 percent in December 2021, down from the peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020. Moreover, employment level last December reached 46.3 million, representing a 3.7-million net employment gain from the pre-pandemic level in January 2020. Nevertheless, employment in some sectors that require close contact has yet to recover, particularly accommodation and food services and transportation. Manufacturing activities moderated, with the purchasing manager’s index (PMI) settling at 50.0 in January 2022. This came about following reimposition of stricter quarantine protocols amid the spread of the omicron variant. Nevertheless, the latest PMI still showed improvement from the manufacturing declines recorded earlier on in the pandemic. Also, businesses reported growing optimism for the year ahead, owing to improving overall COVID-19 situation and rising vaccination rate. New confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country are falling. With low hospitalization rate and rising vaccination rate, the COVID situation is stabilizing. Google mobility data as of February 15, 2022 show that mobility trends were higher relative to the baseline for retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, and parks following relaxation of alert levels. Headline inflation slowed to 3.0 percent year-on-year in January 2022, from 3.7 percent a yearago and 3.2 percent in December 2021. The January 2022 inflation was at the midpoint of the 1/5 BIS central bankers' speeches government’s target range of 2.0-4.0 percent for the year. The slowdown in inflation in January was mostly driven by slower price increases of selected non-food items along with alcoholic beverages and tobacco. Inflation for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels slowed down in January, while prices of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) also fell. Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation held steady compared with the previous month. However, transport inflation continued to increase given rising global crude oil prices. Private sector economists expect inflation to average at 3.5 percent this year and 3.1 percent in 2023, within the official target range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent. Inflation projections of multilateral agencies and market analysts for 2022 and 2023 are also within the government’s target range. The BSP projects February 2022 inflation to settle within the range of 2.8 to 3.6 percent. The country’s external sector remains manageable. The sustained rebound in key economies has spurred external demand. Exports of goods increased by 16.0 percent in the first three quarters of 2021. Similarly, imports of goods grew by 30.2 percent on stronger domestic demand for raw materials and capital goods. Net foreign direct investments increased due to positive foreign investor sentiment on the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals and strong growth prospects. FDIs rose 52.2 percent to USD 9.2 billion from January to November 2021. This bodes well for job creation. The gross international reserves (GIR), which stood at US$107.69 billion as of end-January 2022, continue to provide more than adequate external liquidity buffer. The GIR level is equivalent to almost 10.2 months worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. This far exceeds the three-month conventional reserve level considered as adequate. It is also about 8.4 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity and 5.7 times based on residual maturity. The GIR is supported by improving inflows of cash remittances from overseas workers, receipts from business process outsourcing and FDI inflows. On the Philippine banking system… Liquidity in the financial system remains ample. Preliminary data show that domestic liquidity (M3) grew 9.8 percent year-on-year in January 2022 to about P15.3 trillion, following a 7.3percent expansion in the previous month. Bank lending has improved, increasing at a faster rate of 8.5 percent year-on-year in January from 4.8 percent in the previous month. As of end-December 2021, the gross non-performing loan ratio of the Philippine banking system (PBS) stood at 4.0 percent. While this is higher than the 3.6 percent recorded the previous year, it is still lower relative to the previous month’s 4.4 percent and far from the double-digit levels seen in the Asian Financial crisis. Banks have ample loan-loss provisioning, with the NPL coverage ratio at 87.4 percent. The Philippine banking system remains well-capitalized. As of the third quarter of 2021, capital 2/5 BIS central bankers' speeches adequacy ratio (CAR) was at 17.1 percent, well above the 10 percent minimum threshold set by the BSP and the 8 percent by the Bank for International Settlements. The BSP will continue to closely monitor the impact of emerging COVID-19 variants on the banking system. Supervisory and surveillance tools have been strengthened to ensure that appropriate focus and attention are placed on this area. Two years since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy is on its way to recovery thanks in part to swift and decisive actions by the government. The government’s mass vaccination program is picking up pace, and scope and is expected to accelerate further. In 2020, the government passed the Bayanihan 1 and 2 laws and allocated a portion of the 2021 National Budget to fund COVID-19 response. The recently signed 2022 General Appropriations Act contains fiscal stimulus, crafted with continued COVID response and recovery, in mind. Together with the extended 2021 GAA, the budget will support continued implementation of COVID-19 recovery measures and help the economy bounce back. Moreover, the government passed into law reforms that could foster strong and faster economic rebound. This includes passage of the Financial Institutions Strategic Transfer or FIST Act (RA 11523) and the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises or CREATE Act (RA 11534). Meanwhile, the proposed Government Financial Institutions Unified Initiatives to Distressed Enterprises for Economic Recovery or GUIDE Bill aims to strengthen the capacity of government financial institutions to assist micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to cope with the effects of COVID-19. Complementing the government’s responses, the BSP has implemented temporary and timebound policy measures. First were measures to boost market confidence, such as cuts in the policy rate and the reserve requirement. The lower policy rate was meant to influence banks to slash their own lending rates, thereby promoting credit-taking activities. Meanwhile, lower reserve requirements increased the volume of loanable funds. Second were extraordinary liquidity measures to the National Government (NG) to help fund the pandemic-response measures. These include provisional advances to the national government, purchases of government securities (GS) in the secondary market, and remittance of advance dividends. Third were regulatory and operational relief measures to maintain stability of the financial system and ensure public access to financial services. We counted loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) as compliance to the reserve requirement, increased the single borrower’s limit, and raised the ceiling for real-estate loans. We also excluded some loans from the “past-due” and “non-performing” classification and allowed a grace period for loan settlement and restructuring of rediscounted loans. In our latest policy meeting on February 17, 2022, the Monetary Board kept the key policy interest rate steady at a historic low of 2.0 percent. The Monetary Board deems it prudent to maintain the BSP’s accommodative policy stance given a manageable inflation environment and emerging uncertainty surrounding domestic and global growth prospects. 3/5 BIS central bankers' speeches Through its liquidity-easing measures, the BSP has injected into the financial system about ₱2.2 trillion (or approximately US$42.9 billion) in liquidity, equivalent; this is around 11.1 percent of the country’s nominal GDP. Following the BSP’s cumulative 200-basis point reductions in the policy rate in response to the crisis, domestic market rates have dropped. Despite the pandemic, international observers continue to have confidence in the Philippine economy, as shown in our credit ratings. On February 18, 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed the Philippines’ credit rating of “BBB,” a notch above minimum investment grade, citing economic gains that demonstrate sustained recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. The country has maintained the same rating from Fitch and other debt watchers throughout the pandemic, despite a wave of rating downgrades in many other countries. Moving on to economic outlook… Considering the recent economic developments and continued improvement in vaccination efforts, we are optimistic that there is sufficient support for the country’s recovery in the near term. The management of risks through calibrated quarantine restrictions, the expected revitalization of key industries due to government policy support and structural reforms, and the improvement of the global economy should help the economy to accelerate in 2022. After a higher-than-government-target growth at 5.6 percent in 2021, the government projects that the Philippine economy will grow by 7.0 to 9.0 percent in 2022, and by 6.0 to 7.0 percent in 2023. The restoration of global growth with the easing of restrictions in many jurisdictions along with increasing vaccination rates and improving jobs market could contribute to domestic recovery through improvements in exports and remittances. Moreover, the CREATE Act could shore up investments and business activity and, in turn, boost the country’s actual and potential output. The Economic Development Cluster is proposing a 10-point policy to accelerate and sustain economic recovery. The latest baseline inflation forecasts are within the target range at 3.7 percent for 2022 and 3.3 percent for 2023 under the 2018-based CPI series. Meanwhile, the current account deficit is projected to reach 2.3 percent of GDP in 2022, driven by further widening of the trade-in-goods deficit, as imports growth (10.0 percent) is seen to continue outpacing exports growth (6.0 percent). Overseas Filipino remittances growth in 2022 is expected to stabilize at 4.0 percent. The projected improvements in global growth prospects and further opening of economies, along with the continued mass use of vaccines to prevent the spread of COVID-19, will support growth of remittances. FDI inflows are projected to reach US$8.5 billion in 2022 amid expectations of improvements in the domestic and global investment climate this year. However, economic recovery is expected to be uneven between advanced and emerging market economies. The path to recovery will depend on the reach of mass vaccination and the effectiveness of policy support. 4/5 BIS central bankers' speeches Furthermore, the uneven exit from the pandemic may pose varied challenges to policymakers, as tightening monetary conditions in advanced economies may affect the recovery path of emerging economies that rely on international financing. There is also the increase in inflation, both in advanced and EMEs, due to firming demand, input shortages caused by supply-chain bottlenecks resulting from mobility restrictions and weather disruptions, and rapidly rising commodity prices. Also, as we have witnessed since the start of 2022, the potential emergence and spread of new variants is an ongoing threat. Elevated global commodity prices, heightened geopolitical tensions,as for example, the RussiaUkraine conflict, and the uneven pace of vaccinations across jurisdictions could dampen the outlook for global economic recovery. Moving forward, the BSP’s actions and policy thrusts will continue to be anchored on its core mandates of promoting price and financial stability. On monetary policy, the BSP will remain vigilant over the current inflation dynamics to ensure that the monetary policy stance continues to support economic recovery to the extent that the inflation outlook would allow. On the financial sector, the BSP will intensify its monitoring and surveillance ensure that supervised financial institutions remain responsive to emerging risks and demonstrate soundness, stability, resilience, and inclusivity such as through pursuit of digitization. Finally, on the external sector, the BSP will remain supportive of policies that will help strengthen the economy’s resilience to external shocks, including that of maintaining a market-determined exchange rate, keeping a comfortable level of reserves, and maintaining the country’s external debt manageable. Allow me to end my presentation with these key points: The country’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound. The latest GDP growth suggests that the Philippine economy on a path of a strong recovery The latest baseline inflation forecasts are within the target range. The risks to the inflation outlook continue to lean slightly toward the upside for 2022 but remain broadly balanced for 2023. Banks remain sound and well capitalized. External position is robust, with more-than-adequate external liquidity buffer. Risks and uncertainties remain but sustained implementation of targeted fiscal initiatives as well as acceleration of the Government’s vaccination program should help boost market confidence and economic recovery in the coming months. The BSP will maintain its accommodative policy stance given a manageable inflation environment and emerging uncertainty surrounding domestic and global growth prospects. Looking ahead, the BSP remains steadfast in striking a balance between providing adequate stimulus to the economy and preventing buildup of inflationary pressures and risks to price and financial stability. I’ll end here. Thank you for your attention. 5/5 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Opening remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Joint BSP-AFI Knowledge Exchange Program on Central Bank Digital Currency, Manila, 28 February 2022.
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Opening message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the Financial Sector Forum-Carnegie Mellon University on Exponential Technologies and the Financial Sector, online, 2 March 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Opening message for the Financial Sector Forum-Carnegie Mellon University on Exponential Technologies and the Financial Sector Opening message by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the Financial Sector Forum-Carnegie Mellon University on Exponential Technologies and the Financial Sector, online, 2 March 2022. * * * Professor Emil Bolongaita, Head of Carnegie Mellon University – Australia, Professor Ariel ZetlinJones, Associate Professor of Economics, Tepper School of Business and visiting scholar of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Professor Murli Viswanathan Associate Professor of Information Technology, Professor Riaz Esmailzadeh professor of Management of Information Technology, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairperson Emilio Aquino, Insurance Commission Commissioner Atty. Dennis B. Funa, Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation President Roberto Tan, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Deputy Governor Chuchi Fonacier, colleagues from the Financial Sector Forum, ladies and gentlemen, good morning! The pursuit of learning is an unending journey. With the rapid changes in the financial landscape, it is a must for every regulator to continue to learn and re-learn matters vital in carrying out our mandates. From the Financial Sector Forum Supervisory Technology and Regulatory Technology summit held last October 2021, one thing is certain: the need for transformation that will bring forth a new breed of supervisors. It important that supervisors are not only technology literate, but are also competent and knowledgeable in various digital technologies, such as AI, Blockchain, Machine Learning, and other emerging technologies. As such, the FSF, through its Information Exchange Committee will roll out additional training programs designed to give an in-depth understanding of these technologies. At this point, I’d like to thank our partners from Carnegie Mellon University Australia, headed by Professor Emil Bolongaita, for sharing their knowledge with us all. Through this collaboration, we hope to develop financial supervisors ready to take on the lead and be in the forefront of the industry’s digital transformation. In closing, I’d like to welcome everyone to this online conference. I hope you take this opportunity to widen your horizon and take in as much learning as you can to benefit your respective agencies and the Philippine Financial Sector as a whole. Thank you and good morning! 1/1 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Young Presidents' Organization (YPO) Philippines Inc. Event, Manila, 2 March 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: 2022 Philippine economic outlook - broadbased economic recovery and risks Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Young Presidents’ Organization (YPO) Philippines Inc. Event, Manila, 2 March 2022. * * * Good day, everyone. I would like to thank YPO Philippines for inviting me to this event to share updates on the Philippine economy. I will cover the following topics in my presentation: First, I will start with a discussion on the year that has been. Next, I will discuss the BSP’s outlook on domestic output and inflation, as well as our assessment of the risks and challenges for the year ahead. I will conclude with some key takeaways and the BSP’s way forward. With the spread of more virulent COVID-19 variants, cases of COVID-19 continued to surge worldwide. Accordingly, governments had to reimpose border restrictions and lockdown measures to protect people from contracting COVID-related illnesses. Expectations of a faster-than-expected recovery gradually abated as prolonged lockdown measures and stringent quarantine restrictions weighed on the growth prospects of select economies. Private economists surveyed by Bloomberg repeatedly downgraded their 2021 GDP growth forecasts for most emerging markets and developing economies, as COVID-related uncertainties moderated optimism for a swift global recovery. Despite expectations of a slowdown in global economic growth, the Philippines showed signs of improved economic activity in 2021. During the fourth quarter of 2021, the economy grew 7.7 percent, bringing the full-year growth to 5.6 percent. The economy’s growth trajectory may further improve due to the projected expansion of exports in 2022. Goods exports grew by 16.0 percent in the first three quarters of 2021. The share of electronic products to total exports continued to increase in 2021 as global digitalization efforts increased the demand for semiconductors and other electronic components in 2021. The BSP projects goods exports to have grown by 16.0 percent in 2021 amid rising global demand for tech products, such as semiconductors and other electronics. For 2022, exports are expected to grow by 6.0 percent and imports by 10.0 percent. This reflects the expected continued rebound in world trade and improvement in domestic consumer demand. Employment indicators likewise improved in the third quarter of 2021. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.6 percent in December 2021, down from a peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020. 1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches Despite the notable improvements in total employment, granular data indicates that the quality of jobs has yet to fully recover, as recent gains were mostly in low-skilled and less remunerative occupations. In an encouraging sign, inflation further eased in January 2022 to 3 percent based on 2018 CPI series. This supports the narrative that inflation is on a downward trajectory. Moving now to financial system indicators, we continue to see overall credit conditions providing ample support to economic activity. Bank lending appears to have turned the corner in recent months. Bank lending grew anew by 4.6 percent year-on-year in December 2021 from 4.0 percent in November. Lending activity continues to gain traction amid businesses’ optimistic outlook due to the continued rollout of vaccines and easing restrictions during the latter part of 2021. The consecutive quarters of positive year-on-year economic growth point to continued economic recovery, but the BSP maintains its position of keeping an accommodative policy environment to ensure the sustainability of this recovery. The BSP observed that economic growth appears to be gaining traction amid improved mobility and sentiment due to the calibrated relaxation of quarantine protocols and continued progress in the government’s vaccination program. Nevertheless, given the ongoing recovery, the priority of the BSP continues to be maintaining policy support for the domestic economy and avoiding a premature exit from pandemic-relief response measures to prevent long-term economic scarring. The prevailing policy stance is also supported by a manageable inflation outlook and anchored inflation expectations. Based on our latest baseline forecasts, which include the potential impact of higher crude oil prices, inflation is seen to settle at 3.7 percent in 2022 and 3.3 percent in 2023, well within the government’s target range of 2 to 4 percent. Similarly, results of the BSP’s survey of private sector economists conducted in December 2021 showed steady mean inflation forecasts at 3.5 percent and 3.1 percent for 2022 and 2023, respectively. However, risks to the domestic inflation outlook appear to be slightly on the upside for 2022 but are broadly balanced for 2023. Major upside risks over the near term include a further increase in global non-oil prices due to strong global demand amid persistent supply chain bottlenecks, potential impact of continuing constraints on the supply of key food items, and petitions for jeepney fare hikes due to higher oil prices. Overall, the Philippines remains in a sound position as its macroeconomic fundamentals underpin the economy’s recovery in 2022. The Development Budget Coordination Committee expects the economy to grow by 7.0 to 9.0 percent in 2022. Risks and challenges remain as the emergence of highly transmissible COVID-19 variants delays the normalization of economic activities. Nonetheless, the timely imposition of appropriate pandemic-related measures is necessary to control COVID-19 surges and arrest the spread of the Omicron COVID-19 variant. The continued vaccination efforts and improving healthcare interventions in managing severe cases should usher the eventual transition of COVID-19 from pandemic to endemic. 2/3 BIS central bankers' speeches On the external front, we are cognizant that ongoing policy normalization by major central banks could heighten volatility in financial markets. Some central banks of major advanced economies, including the Bank of Korea, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and Bank of England, have already raised key interest rates. While the shift to policy normalization of advanced economies could affect capital flows and lead to financial market volatility, this also reflects opportunities for economies like the Philippines in terms of increased trade activities. Nevertheless, the BSP remains steadfast in dealing with such spillover effects through our expanded policy toolkit. Although the normalization of the currently ultra-accommodative monetary policy in advanced economies could lead to a rebalancing of global capital flows and depreciation of emerging markets’ currencies vis-à-vis the dollar, the Philippines is in a favorable position to navigate tightening global financial conditions given the manageable inflation environment and sufficient external buffers. The current level of gross international reserves – at USD108.45 billion – is more than sufficient to withstand adverse external shocks. At the same time, structural flows from remittances, IT-BPM revenues, and foreign direct investments are expected to further bolster the country’s external payments position. Meanwhile, the BSP’s adherence to a market-determined exchange rate system and our macroprudential measures will continue to allow us to curb excessive FX volatility and respond to instability in financial markets. Should external developments bring about risks to the domestic outlook for inflation and growth, the BSP stands ready to calibrate policy settings as needed. In closing, allow me to share three key takeaways: The spread of more transmissible COVID-19 variants weighed on the global economy’s recovery momentum in 2021 as governments reimposed more stringent quarantine restrictions. Global economic growth is expected to pick up although risks emanating from tightening financial conditions and emergence of vaccine resistant COVID variants pose downside risks to economic recovery. The BSP remains committed to maintaining accommodative policy settings for as long as necessary to ensure a durable path to economic recovery. Bright spots of recovery have started to emerge. We are hopeful that our whole-of-government approach will help our country recover from this crisis stronger than ever. Thank you and mabuhay ang YPO Philippines! 3/3 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the launch of the first Digital Financial Inclusion Awards, Manila, 13 March 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Launch of the first Digital Financial Inclusion Awards Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the launch of the first Digital Financial Inclusion Awards, Manila, 13 March 2022. * * * Citi Philippines CEO, Mr. Aftab Ahmed; officers from the Microfinance Council of the Philippines, Inc. (MCPI) headed by Mr. Eduardo C. Jimenez; colleagues in the BSP; fellow financial inclusion advocates; and friends from the media: good afternoon. It is my pleasure to be with you today to celebrate another milestone with the launch of the first Digital Financial Inclusion Awards or DFIA. The inaugural DFIA marks a new chapter in the enduring partnership of Citi Philippines, MCPI, and BSP, which began in 2002 with the Citi Microentrepreneurship Awards or CMA. Apart from building on the successful run of the CMA, the DFIA coincides with the launch of the new National Strategy for Financial Inclusion or NSFI 2022–2028, which focuses on advancing inclusive digital finance and the financing access of micro, small, and medium enterprises or MSMEs. The DFIA is also a timely awards program that reflects the experiences, insights, and lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and conveys our commitment to ensure that every Filipino – every microentrepreneur – has the means to flourish in the new, digital economy. For the BSP’s part, we remain steadfast in spearheading digitalization efforts and programs supporting MSMEs and the microfinance sector, which serve as financial lifelines for our microentrepreneurs. Our initiatives include bringing digital payments closer to the people by promoting its use in the most common transaction points for most Filipinos—the community markets and local transportation services such as tricycles. As such, we continue to actively support the implementation of PhilSys, our national digital ID system. With its e-KYC functionality, PhilSys will streamline and enhance the onboarding capability of MFIs, making it less costly for both the financial institution and the consumer. We also continue to facilitate capacity building and technical assistance for digitalization initiatives of the microfinance sector. There are also efforts to promote responsible use of alternative data to benefit MSMEs and unbanked individuals with little to no credit history. Here are just examples of current efforts and, guided by the NSFI 2022–2028, we aim to do much more together with our partners and stakeholders. With the DFIA, we carry our inclusive digital finance agenda and microfinance advocacy further by recognizing microentrepreneurs—as well as MFIs—who have successfully embarked on digitalization. We want to encourage the digital shift and send the message that, yes, digital transformation is possible. Thus, we look forward to this year’s DFIA batch of nominees and to learn how they have adopted digital technology in their operational processes, created innovative products and services, and 1/2 BIS central bankers' speeches used digital financial services to build a financially resilient future for themselves, their families, and their communities. Thank you and good afternoon. 2/2 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Opening remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for ADB's Southeast Asia Development Symposium (SEADS) 2022 "Sustainable solutions for Southeast Asia's recovery", Manila, 15 March 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: Sustainable solutions for Southeast Asia’s recovery Opening remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for ADB’s Southeast Asia Development Symposium (SEADS) 2022 “Sustainable solutions for Southeast Asia’s recovery”, Manila, 15 March 2022. * * * Good day to all. I am honored to join you today for the Southeast Asia Development Symposium 2022. Before the pandemic, the Philippine economy grew at an average of 6.4 percent annually. Poverty incidence dropped from 23.5 percent in 2015 to 16.7 percent in 2018. While the pandemic may have set us back on some of our goals, I am confident that we are on our way to regaining our pre-pandemic growth trajectory. There are two things fueling my optimism: First is the continued confidence in the Philippine economy. The country continues to have a favorable medium-term growth prospects based on the stable outlook affirmed by majority of major credit rating agencies. Second, we didn’t sit idly by during the pandemic but pursued game-changing structural reforms, from amendments to the Retail Trade Liberalization Act, Public Service Act, and Foreign Investments Act. We are also pushing for amendments to the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of Republic Act No. 10000 or the Agri-Agra Credit Act of 2009, which allows banks to lend to more types of farming communities and classify more loans as compliant with the law’s quotas. We are positive that the Senate and House will reach a consensus and ratify the bill once session resumes on May 2022. I am confident that, with these game-changing reforms, we can achieve real change in the lives of ordinary Filipinos through more and better jobs and more competitive economy. Also, our financial digitalization initiatives, under the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap, are enabling better payments processes and financial inclusion. Moreover, the Philippine central bank’s policies on sustainable finance are harnessing the ability of banks to drive a more sustainable future. Aided in part by the BSP’s measures, the economy is showing signs of solid recovery, as shown by the 5.6-percent GDP growth last year. This year, we expect the economy to grow by 7.0-9.0 percent. Looking ahead, the Philippine central bank is laying the foundation for a better future for all Filipinos. With our push for structural reforms, digitalization, and sustainability, we aim to see a Philippine economy that is stronger, more technologically savvy, more inclusive, and more sustainable than ever. I’ll stop here. Thank you and I look forward to hearing your insights. 1/1 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the American Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM) General Membership Meeting, Manila, 17 March 2022.
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Benjamin E Diokno: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas economic briefing - the Philippines in 2022 Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the American Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM) General Membership Meeting, Manila, 17 March 2022. * * * Officers and members of the American Chamber of Commerce, good afternoon. Thank you for inviting me to your General Membership Meeting. Let me update you with, first, our country’s recent economic performance; second, the BSP’s support to the economy; and lastly, our near-term macroeconomic prospects. On the economy’s latest performance… After five consecutive quarters of decline, the economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter of last year with a growth of 12.0 percent. Since then, the country has managed to sustain this growth. In the last quarter of 2021, the economy grew by 7.7 percent, resulting in a 5.6-percent full-year growth, which is above the government’s target range of 5.0 to 5.5 percent. The employment situation has improved. Unemployment rate fell to 6.4 percent in January 2022 from the peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020. Moreover, the 43.02-million employment posted in January 2022 represented a 1.77-million net employment gain from the level in January 2021. Manufacturing activities are gaining traction. The purchasing manager’s index (PMI) increased by 1.3 percent to a three-year high of 52.8 in February 2022 following easing of quarantine protocols. The COVID-19 situation is improving—i.e., new confirmed COVID-19 cases are falling, vaccination rate is rising, and hospitalization rate has declined. Headline inflation stood at 3.0 percent in January and February 2022, the midpoint of the government’s average inflation target range of 2.0-4.0 Inflation expectations remain well anchored. Inflation projections of private-sector economists and multilateral agencies for 2022, 2023, and 2024 all fall within the government’s target range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent. The country’s external sector remains manageable. The sustained rebound in key economies has spurred external demand. FDIs rose by 54.2 percent to USD 10.5 billion in 2021, which reflects positive investor sentiment and bodes well for job creation. OF cash remittances and BPO revenues grew 15.1 percent and 9.5 percent y-o-y, respectively in 2021. Supported by strong foreign exchange inflows, gross international reserves (GIR) remain hefty at USD 108 billion as of end-February 2022. This represents more-than-adequate external liquidity buffer equivalent to 10.2 months of imports 1/4 BIS central bankers' speeches of goods and payments of services and primary income. It is also about 8.4 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity and 5.8 times based on residual maturity. The Philippine banking system remains sound and stable, as shown by continued growth in assets, deposits, and capital, as well as net profit, stable capital and liquidity buffers, ample loan loss reserves, and manageable loan quality. Overall, the banking system’s financial condition allows it to support the country’s financing needs. Bank lending has posted six consecutive months of year-on-year growth since August 2021, up 8.5 percent in January. Moving to pandemic recovery measures… The economy is on its way to recovery, thanks to swift and decisive actions. On the part of the National Government, it passed in 2020 the Bayanihan 1 and 2 laws and allocated a portion of the 2021 National Budget for COVID-19 response. The 2022 General Appropriations Act (GAA) also contains fiscal stimulus. Together with the extended 2021 GAA, this year’s budget will support continued implementation of COVID-19 recovery measures and help the economy bounce back. On the part of the BSP, we implemented a long list of crisis responses—from actions intended to boost market confidence to extraordinary liquidity measures. With our liquidity-easing measures, the BSP has injected into the financial system about Php 2.2 trillion (or approximately USD 42.9 billion), equivalent to 11.1 percent of the country’s GDP. We also implemented regulatory and operational relief measures to maintain stability of the financial system and ensure public access to financial services. We have seen favorable reactions to the BSP’s crisis-response measures. Domestic market rates have dropped amid the BSP’s cumulative 200-basis point reductions in the policy rate. Also, amid the successive waves of downgrades of many countries—developed and emerging, credit rating agencies have maintained the Philippines’ investment grade credit ratings throughout the pandemic, reflecting their confidence on the Philippine economy’s recovery prospects. As the recovery further gains traction, BSP is considering its exit strategy. The broad sequence of the BSP’s exit strategy involves the following: recalibration of our monetary operations, unwinding of our liquidity provision, reduction in monetary accommodation (when prospects for the economy have improved), and building our buffers in preparation for future crisis episodes. At present, the BSP’s key policy rate remains at a historic low of 2.0 percent. The low interest rate environment has helped support credit activities amid the pandemic. But some groundwork for the BSP’s “exit” has already been initiated with the significant decline in the BSP’s purchases of government securities in the secondary market since the latter part of 2/4 BIS central bankers' speeches 2020 and the reduction in the provisional advances to the National Government from P540 billion to P300 billion. Moving on to economic outlook… After a higher-than-target growth of 5.6 percent last year, the government projects that the Philippine economy will grow by 7.0 to 9.0 percent this year, and by 6.0 to 7.0 percent next year. The latest baseline inflation forecasts are within the target range at 3.7 percent for this year and 3.3 percent for next year. In recent weeks, there is heightened uncertainty due to soaring world crude oil prices. Based on the BSP’s oil price simulation, however, inflation could settle above the target range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent, only if crude oil prices average higher than US$95.00 per barrel in 2022 and 2023 on a sustained basis. Below US$95.00 per barrel, inflation would settle within the target range. Should oil prices reach US$120–140 per barrel this year, inflation would be 0.7 –1.0 percentage point above baseline in 2022. In brief, inflation would average between 4.4 – 4.7 percent under the US$120–140 per barrel scenario. Meanwhile, the current account is expected to post a deficit equivalent to 2.3 percent of GDP in 2022, driven by rising demand for imported capital goods and inputs for production as the economy continues to recover. Overseas Filipino remittances is expected to grow at 4.0 percent this year, after a 5.1 percent growth in 2021. This pattern suggests resilience. Net foreign direct investments are projected to rise to USD 8.5 billion this year amid expectations of improved domestic and global investment climate. While the Covid-19 virus rages, we didn’t sit idly by and wait for the pandemic to recede. We continued to work for the enactment of structural reform measures: These include the following: First, the amended Retail Trade Liberalization Act, which lowers the minimum paid-up capital for foreign retailers; Second, the amended Foreign Investments Act, which encourages foreign professionals to bring their practice, know-how, and technical expertise to the Philippines; and Third, the amended Public Service Act, which will open key economic sectors, such as telecommunications and airline industries. However, there are risks to our outlook. One is the uneven recovery between advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs), as the pace of mass vaccination and effectiveness of policy support differ. Another risk is the potential emergence and spread of new COVID-19 variants in other countries. Rising inflation, both in AEs and EMEs, is also a threat owing to growing demand, input shortages caused by supply-chain bottlenecks, and rapidly rising commodity prices. We expect the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to continue exerting pressure on key commodity prices, particularly oil and wheat. The conflict could also cloud global trade and investment outlook and cause financial market volatility. The BSP supports the national government’s fiscal interventions to address upside risks to inflation and safeguard the economic recovery momentum. 3/4 BIS central bankers' speeches For instance, timely social protection measures could alleviate the impact of rising crude oil prices on the transportation and agriculture sectors, while measures to ensure adequate domestic food supply could mitigate further supply-side pressures on inflation. In closing, I would like to highlight three key points: • First, the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound. • Second, there are risks to this outlook, such as lingering uncertainties in the COVID-19 situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. • And third, the BSP is one with the National Government in helping the economy achieve full recovery. The BSP is striking a balance between providing adequate stimulus to sustain economic recovery and managing risks to price and financial stability. 4/4 BIS central bankers' speeches
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Opening remarks by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Meeting of Asia Pacific Joint Group on Money Laundering, 4 May 2022.
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Media and Research - Speeches Opening Remarks for the Meeting of Asia Pacific Joint Group on Money Laundering Date: May 04, 2022 Occasion: Meeting of Asia Pacific Joint Group on Money Laundering Speaker: BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno embers of the Joint Group, Financial Action Task Force Secretariat, and the Asia Pacific Group M on Money Laundering Secretariat. Our colleagues from various government and law enforcement agencies. Good morning and good afternoon. In June 2021, the Philippines was placed among the Jurisdictions Under Increased Monitoring or the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list and has been given International Co-operation Review Group (ICRG) action plan items to be accomplished until January 2023. And I am pleased to share that the political commitment of the Philippines in addressing the action plan remains strong and steadfast as all relevant agencies of the Philippine government continue to contribute toward producing the expected results over a sustained period. This is evident, in particular, in the constant monitoring and participation of the Office of the President of the Philippines as well as the Department of Finance and Department of Foreign Affairs. But just as the Philippines is committed to swiftly and concretely implement the action plan as provided by the Asia Pacific joint Group (APJG), so, too, must the APJG commit to adhere to the given action plan and refrain from expanding its scope. The Philippines, however, truly appreciates the assessment on the other Immediate Outcomes that the APJG has initially rated as largely addressed, particularly, Immediate Outcome 3-3 on continuing the efforts to implement the new registration requirements and apply proportionate and dissuasive sanctions to unregistered and illegal remittance operators; and Immediate Outcomes 10/11-2 on demonstrating that supervisors undertake risk based supervision of targeted financial sanctions by financial institutions and designated non-financial businesses and professions. The Philippines has also demonstrated positive and tangible progress for Immediate Outcomes 8-2 and 9-4. In Immediate Outcome 8-2, the action plan calls for the Philippines to demonstrate that cross-border measures are applied to all main seaports and airports of the country, including detection of false-declarations of currency and confiscation action resulting therefrom with particular focus on high-risk activities in line with the Philippines risk profile. To address this, the Philippines has applied upgrades in the regulatory framework of its Bureau of Customs and subsequently employed cross-border measures in all the country’s major international sea and airports. In Immediate Outcome 9-4, the action plan calls for the increase in the number of dedicated terrorism financing (TF) investigators and the enhancement of TF investigation and prosecution capacity, including regular specific financial investigation training on different types of TF activity. Also, a dedicated staff with specialized knowledge on financial crimes must be ensured within law enforcement agencies (LEAs) with financial investigation units. As required by the action plan, the Philippines has significantly increased its counter-terrorism financing (CTF) resources and has boosted TF investigation and prosecution capacities of LEAs, national security agencies (NSAs), and relevant government agencies, particularly in comparison to the resources and capacity during the period covered by the Mutual Evaluation. As mentioned before, a noteworthy initiative is the Philippines’ Deputation Program to increase CTF manpower by designating force multipliers from various LEAs and NSAs called Deputized AMLC Financial Investigators or DAFIs. Currently, there are 486 DAFIs and 807 support personnel with LEAs having own terrorism and TF units. This is no small feat as it shows a proactive and robust national policy in increasing TF resources to support TF identification, investigation, and prosecution, which are indicated in the action plan item. The Philippines continues to work toward demonstrating positive and tangible progress, and we further appeal that you look upon the country’s efforts with fairness, considering the many constraints and hazards posed by the ongoing health crisis. Thank you, and we look forward to a productive and enlightening dialogue ahead.
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Speech (virtual) by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the "The Strength of Rising Together Eastern Communications" e-Huddle Series, 10 May 2022.
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Media and Research - Speeches Finance Forecast 2022: Opportunities and Recovery Date: May 10, 2022 Occasion: Ignite: The Strength of Rising Together Eastern Communications e-Huddle Series Speaker: BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno To all the thought leaders, fellow speakers, and everyone here present, good day! Thank you for inviting me to the second year of the E-Huddle webinar series. This provides an effective platform for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to convey our insights and ongoing initiatives. Today, I will discuss— First, the macroeconomic landscape and highlights of the performance of our banking system. Second, the key regulatory reforms to ensure smooth transition post-pandemic, particularly BSP initiatives in promoting sustainable finance and digitalization as essential elements in the recovery and operational resilience of BSP-supervised financial institutions. Third, the BSP legislative agenda. Finally, I will cap my presentation with some key takeaways. Now, let me start by saying that our economy is fundamentally strong and resilient. Despite the recession in 2020 due to the pandemic, we managed to bounce back stronger. The economy posted a 5.7-percent full-year growth last year, above the government’s target range of 5.0 to 5.5 percent. Inflation remains manageable, settling at 3.4 percent in the first quarter of this year, well within the government’s target band of 2.0 to 4.0 percent. Our gross international reserves, or GIR, which serve as buffer against external headwinds, remain hefty at 108.5 billion US dollars as of end-March this year. The GIR is considered adequate if it can cover at least three months’ worth of imports. Ours provides 9.5 months of import cover. The job situation has recovered. The number of employed Filipinos now exceeds pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.4 percent in February this year from a peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020. Moving on to the banking sector…. Banks remain the pillar of strength of our economy. As of February this year, the total resources of the banking system expanded by 7.0 percent year-on-year to 20.7 trillion pesos. Credit activity registered an increasing trend for seven straight months, up by 5.4 percent year-onyear. We expect improving economic condition and market sentiment to further spur domestic credit expansion. Non-performing loans remain manageable with NPL ratio at 4.2 percent. The NPL coverage ratio, which shows the banks' allowance for potential losses from bad loans, is high at 86.1 percent. Meanwhile, the capital adequacy ratio of universal and commercial banks reached 17.4 percent on a consolidated basis. This is well above the minimum thresholds of 10.0 percent set by the BSP and 8.0 percent by the Bank for International Settlements. Finally, the net profit of the banking system is up by a remarkable 44.8 percent year-on-year as of December 2021. Against this backdrop, our country has kept its investment-grade ratings all throughout the pandemic. This is despite a wave of downgrades globally, which validates the resilience demonstrated by our economy amid the pandemic. When the pandemic struck, the BSP stepped in to provide additional emergency support to the government’s broad-based health and fiscal programs. On top of this, we implemented a wide range of regulatory relief measures aimed at: First, extending financial relief; Second, boosting bank lending; and Third, promoting continued access to financial delivery and services. The BSP extended some of these measures until yearend to sustain the credit growth momentum and ensure continued access to financial services. At the height of the pandemic, we strengthened our earlier digitalization efforts through the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap. We have twin targets by 2023, which I consider personal goals. First, that at least half of financial transactions in the country are done digitally… …and second, that at least 70 percent of Filipino adults have transaction accounts. I am optimistic about hitting these two objectives as the economy shifts from a cash-heavy to a cash-lite economy. Now, let me cite some of our initiatives. Together with the Philippine Payments Management Inc. or PPMI, we launched the QR Ph Personto-Merchant facility in October 2021. We are also collaborating with PPMI to broaden the use cases for three digital payment streams this year. First is the interoperable Bills Pay Facility, which will address the existing fragmented bills payment mechanism. Second is the Request to Pay Facility, which will empower payees to initiate collections of nonrecurring receivables. Third is the Direct Debit, which will allow customers to better manage recurring payments. We have also issued the open finance and digital banking frameworks to accelerate digital transformation and financial inclusion. The Open Finance Framework promotes consent-driven data portability, interoperability, and collaborative partnerships among entities that adhere to the same standards of data security and privacy. In line with our digital transformation roadmap, the BSP has issued licenses to six purely digital banks. The BSP has also commenced initiatives in the digitalization of offshore payments. We are prioritizing the establishment of interoperable cross-border real-time retail payment systems among ASEAN member states. Moving on to sustainable finance... For us at the BSP, sustainability will serve as our guidepost in rebuilding the post-COVID 19 economy. It is crucial that sustainability principles are part of how institutions are governed. As such, the BSP is actively collaborating with government agencies and regulators through the Interagency Technical Working Group on Sustainable Finance or what we call the “Green Force” to form a cohesive action plan to institutionalize and accelerate the growth of sustainable finance. Data shows that 24 percent or 119 out of 499 banks have adopted their respective sustainable transition plans. Banks have issued around 1.15 billion US dollars and 152.9 billion pesos worth of green, social and sustainability bonds since 2017. In leading by example, the BSP has invested 550 million US dollars in the Green Bond Funds of the Bank for International Settlements to promote investments in sustainable or green finance assets. We also acknowledge the critical legislation complementing our regulatory reforms and initiatives. These bills include Financial Consumer Protection Act, which will afford the financial sector regulators the authority to enforce prudent and customer-centric standards of conduct, including the power to adjudicate customer complaints. The FCPA is in the Office of the President for signature. The Agri Agra Bill is seen to enhance access by rural communities to private sector financing. This bill is pending for bicameral conference. Meanwhile, the Digital Payments Bill seeks to promote digital payment systems, particularly in all government agencies. This is currently approved in the House of Representatives on third reading and pending in the Senate committee on banks. The Government Financial Institutions Unified Initiatives to Distressed Enterprises for Economic Recovery Act or the GUIDE Bill seeks to strengthen the capacity of the Landbank and Development Bank of the Philippines to provide access to credit to distressed enterprises as a result of the pandemic. This bill is approved in the House of Representatives on third reading and pending in the Senate committee on banks. There is also the Financial Accounts Regulation Bill, which aims to regulate the use of bank accounts and e-wallets in online transactions to address proliferation of cybercrimes. This is also pending in the Senate committee on banks. Finally, let me highlight key points of my presentation. The country is on the road to full economic recovery; Banks continue to be in a position of strength to support economic recovery; The pandemic has helped accelerate the sustainability agenda and digitalization of the financial system; And, amid all the challenges and uncertainties, the BSP remains committed to provide a conducive environment for digital innovation and sustainability.
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Keynote speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the I Am Secure Forum for Metaverse, 18 May 2022.
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Media and Research - Speeches Keynote Speech for Metaverse: I Am Secure Forum Date: May 18, 2022 Occasion: Metaverse: I Am Secure Forum Speaker: BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno Members and officers of the Information Security Officers Group or ISOG, friends in the financial services sector, ladies and gentlemen, good day. At the outset, allow us—the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas or BSP—to commend the ISOG for upholding its basic tenets on security awareness, inter-institutional incident response, and intelligence sharing. Today’s forum by ISOG will help strengthen information security through a discussion of something which the world is slowly being introduced to—a cutting-edge concept that is called the metaverse. The pandemic has forced us to take the digital leap. I have to say that we Filipinos, resilient as we are, have embraced technology, innovation, and digitalization. The numbers bear this out. In the financial sector, over four million digital accounts were opened at the onset of the community quarantine to facilitate digital payments and e-commerce transactions. More than two years since the onset of the pandemic, remote work and school arrangements, contactless payments, online marketplace, and blockchain, have become commonplace. Further into the future, we can expect a drastic change in our digital ecosystem with the recent developments on an old concept—the metaverse. In a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, the metaverse was described as a three-dimensional digital world where one can purchase and sell goods and services, sign and enforce contracts, recruit and train talent, and interact with customers and communities. To support these capabilities, the metaverse makes use of a combination of innovative technologies which include augmented reality or AR, head-mounted displays, an AR cloud, artificial intelligence, spatial technologies, and many others. Due to the promise of this virtual space, companies such as Facebook and Microsoft, among others, are allocating resources to their respective metaverse infrastructures. As organizations rush to build the metaverse, cyber threat actors are also devising new tactics for these platforms and exploiting digital currency vulnerabilities to launch attacks on organizations and customers in the metaverse. Since the potential of the metaverse is yet to be fully explored and realized, everyone is cautious of the potential threats, particularly on privacy and security. As companies migrate to the metaverse, the BSP will remain vigilant of these developments in this unchartered area of cyberspace. Consistent with our mandate of ensuring the stability, safety, and efficiency of the country’s financial system, the Bangko Sentral will continue to adopt a comprehensive, agile, risk-based, and engaging approach toward cybersecurity. This approach cuts across three key areas: first, our regulatory policy framework; second, proactive monitoring through our surveillance capabilities; and finally, promoting resilience through supervisory and oversight activities. Since 2013, the BSP has issued several regulations to address cyber-related risks for our supervised financial institutions. These regulations deal on various facets of technology such as social media risk management, business continuity management, multi-factor authentication, cybersecurity, electronic payments and financial services, virtual assets, and open finance. We recently released advisories on control measures against cyber fraud and attacks on retail electronic payments and financial services, and security controls for application programming interface. Likewise, we amended our regulations to enhance provisions on fraud management and technology outsourcing. At this point, allow me to share some major industry-wide initiatives to strengthen the industry’s cyber defenses and overall resilience. • First, the BSP is developing the Financial Services Cyber Resilience Plan that will serve as the primary framework covering strategies and plans to strengthen cyber resilience in the financial services industry. This is part of BSP’s role as the lead in the Banking Sector Computer Emergency Response Team under the Department of Information and Communications Technology. • Second, we are implementing the Advanced SupTech Engine for Risk-Based Compliance, or what we call ASTERisC*, which is a unified regtech and suptech solution that will streamline and automate regulatory supervision, reporting, and compliance assessment of cybersecurity risk management for our supervised institutions. • Third, we engage with the banking industry through the Bankers Association of the Philippines Cyber Incident Database or BAPCID. BAPCID is a web-based portal and an industry cyberthreat and best practices sharing platform where participants can report incidents and threats anonymously, and receive threat intelligence feeds and threat advisories from the BSP. • Lastly, we are currently coordinating with relevant government agencies and industry associations for a joint consumer protection campaign to amplify our messages and raise overall cyber awareness in the country. In closing, as we explore the opportunities offered by the metaverse, we must remain vigilant and ensure compliance with the standards of cybersecurity and data privacy consistent with established regulations and best practices. With the rapid evolution of digital technologies, it is a must for us to continuously collaborate and share information as a community. This way, we can be proactive and take intelligent countermeasures to prevent, detect, and respond to these threats. Thank you for your attention.
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Speech (virtual) by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Featured Speaker Webinar Series, 19 May 2022.
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PH Economy: Harnessing the Bright Spots Date: May 19, 2022 Occasion: ADBI Featured Speaker Webinar Series Speaker: BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno Good day, everyone. It is my pleasure to join you today and share updates on the Philippine economy. The Philippines is well into the recovery process. After the pandemic-driven recession in 2020, the economy grew by 5.7 percent last year and sustained its robust momentum with an 8.3 percent growth in the first quarter of 2022. Growth in the first quarter was broad-based. On the supply side, all sectors expanded, driven by industry at 10.4 percent, followed by services at 8.6 percent. On the expenditure side, growth was driven by private consumption which grew by 10.1 percent. Gross capital formation expanded by 20.0 percent. Growth of government final consumption was subdued at 3.6 percent. The employment picture is close to pre-pandemic level. From a peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020, unemployment rate is down to just 5.8 percent in March this year. Moreover, foreign direct investments grew 54.2 percent to all-time high last year. In the first two months of the year, FDIs grew by 8.0 percent to USD1.7 billion. Manufacturing activity has also rebounded, with the purchasing managers’ index hitting 54.3 in April, the highest in over four years. Both business sentiment and consumer outlook have improved. Our business expectation survey show broad improvements in outlook for the coming months. All these came on the back of a whole-of-government approach to recovery. In tandem with the national government’s efforts, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas rolled out its own list of COVID-response measures. First, we cut our policy rate by a cumulative 200 basis points to a record low of two percent, which helped stimulate provision of credit to productive activities. We also reduced our reserve requirement against deposit and deposit substitute liabilities. For universal-commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions (NBQBs), we reduced the reserve requirement from 14 percent to 12 percent effective 3 April 2020. For thrift banks and rural/cooperative banks, we reduced it from 4 percent to 3 percent effective 31 July 2020. Second, we extended time-bound liquidity support to the national government and purchased government securities to help finance its pandemic-response programs. In sum, the BSP has injected over PhP2.2 trillion or approximately US$ 41.9 billion into the financial system. This is equivalent to about 11.2 percent of the GDP. And third, the BSP put in place key regulatory and operational relief measures for banks, which helped maintain the financial system’s stability and ensure the public’s continued access to financial services. As we transition from one administration to another, the central bank will continue to fulfill its mandate of ensuring sound macroeconomic management. On the whole, there are clear indications of continuity of key reforms under the new administration. As the economy recovers and gradually returns to normalcy, the BSP is mindful that the extraordinary measures will need to be scaled back. The timing and conditions of the BSP's exit strategy will be guided by the inflation and growth outlook over the medium term, the state of public health, and domestic and global risks to the economy. Earlier, the BSP's provisional advances to the national government of P540 billion - or USD10.3 billion - in 2020 and 2021 was reduced to P300 billion - or USD5.7 billion in January 2022. Today, the National Government will fully settle these advances, ahead of the maturity schedule of June 11, 2022. Unwinding the extraordinary measures was one of the messages highlighted during the IMF-Word Bank Spring Meetings held last April. Balancing the need to safeguard economic recovery and controlling inflation would be a key challenge for policymakers going forward. The balancing act requires a well-planned, well-calibrated, and well-communicated exit strategy to avoid causing substantial market volatility, reduce potential spillovers, and continue the recovery momentum. For the Philippines, economic recovery came sooner than expected. The economy grew by 8.3 percent in Q1. We expect the economy to grow much faster in Q2, making the growth target for this year of 7.0-9.0 percent doable. Employment is nearing its pre-pandemic rate. The Purchasing Managers Index hit 54.3 in April, the highest in four years. In response, we have started the normalization process. Yesterday, we raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent. We entered the pandemic with strong macroeconomic fundamentals. Our healthy external accounts, marked by hefty gross international reserves, helped maintain relative order in the financial markets amid the crisis. The government’s fiscal space allowed it to spend massively on COVID-19 response without incurring unmanageable debts. We reformed the tax system. We simplified the tax structure, rationalized fiscal incentives, reduced personal and income tax rates, increased taxes on oil, cigarettes, and sweetened beverages. With the new tax system, the incoming administration will be in a better position to face the challenges of the post-pandemic economy. And the stable banking system—which benefitted from regulatory reforms over the years— remained able to provide credit to consumers and businesses. Loan growth is steadily picking up. In addition, prudent lending standards of banks helped to keep the rise in bad debts within manageable levels while ample capitalization enables them to absorb shocks. At the IMF-World Bank Spring meetings, economies were also encouraged to set longer-term goals that go beyond the immediate challenges of achieving full recovery from the pandemic and tempering the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Such goals include reskilling and upskilling of workers, pushing for digital transformation, and promoting a more sustainable future. I am proud to share that we are making progress on these fronts. On reskilling and upskilling of workers, concerned government agencies in the Philippines have rolled out programs to help workers adapt to changing labor demands. On digital transformation, the BSP’s policy agenda include digitalization of the country’s payments system. By 2023, we aim to digitalize at least half of retail payments and ensure at least 70 percent of Filipino adults should have transaction accounts. Complementing this reform is the recently passed Financial Consumer Protection Act. The legislation provides regulators more power to act on, and improves the resolution mechanisms for financial consumer complaints, including those involving cybercrimes. The BSP has also issued six digital banking licenses, in line with our Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap. On sustainability, the BSP is at the forefront of promoting sustainability principles in the financial sector. We have issued regulations requiring banks to incorporate such principles into their operations. We are also among the early investors in the Bank of International Settlements’ Green Bond Fund and the Asian Green Bond Fund. The Philippine government did not let the unprecedented crisis go to waste. It did not sit idly by and wait for the coronavirus to subside; instead, it continued to pursue game-changing reforms which would make the Philippines a preferred investment destination. For instance, the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises or CREATE law slashes corporate income tax and rationalizes the fiscal incentives system. In addition, three landmark laws were enacted to further open the Philippines to foreign investors. These include the amended Retail Trade Liberalization Act, the Foreign Investments Act, and Public Services Act. During the last six years, the government invested heavily in public infrastructure. The goal is to make up for past neglect which earned the Philippines the distinction of having one of the poorest public infrastructures in ASEAN. From 2016 to 2020, infrastructure spending as percent of GDP averaged 4.6 percent. In 2021, actual infrastructure spending reached PHP1.12 trillion or 5.8 percent of GDP. These numbers tell the story of the government’s commitment to improve mobility and create a better investment climate. One thing is obvious: the next administration will have a better state of infrastructure and a more robust economy. The next administration will receive a long list of implementation-ready infrastructure projects. A total of 88 infrastructure flagship projects for completion in 2023 and beyond will be up to the next administration to continue. Taking all these into consideration, we are optimistic that the Philippine economy will post an even better performance following a solid rebound last year. We expect the economy to grow by 7.0 to 9.0 percent this year, and by 6.0 to 7.0 percent next year. Having said this, like the rest of the world, the Philippines faces risks to its growth outlook. Among which are deterioration in the COVID situation and a prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict. On COVID-19, the Philippines is managing risks of potentially new variants emerging through sentinel surveillance and protecting the vulnerable population through accelerated vaccination. As of May 10, 68.4 million out of the target 90 million Filipino population have already been fully vaccinated. On the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the channel through which we see the most material impact is on domestic prices. But we expect this to be manageable. Based on latest estimates of the BSP, inflation could average 4.6 percent, slightly above the 2.0- to 4.0-percent target range this year before moving back to within the target band next year at 3.9 percent. The BSP supports timely implementation of targeted non-monetary measures by the national government to prevent price pressures from broadening. These include direct financial transfers to vulnerable sectors, and efforts to boost domestic production and importation of certain food commodities. For its part, the BSP is prepared to take preemptive action when there are stronger indications of a possible disanchoring of inflation expectations. In closing, while the Philippines is on track in achieving full economic recovery in the near term, we must all collectively continue to work together to overcome current and emerging challenges. Now more than ever, we must put a premium on stronger international cooperation to achieve our vision of a green, resilient, and inclusive global economy. Thank you for your attention. #
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Bloomberg Philippines NEXT Summit "Deciphering New Horizon", Manila, 13 June 2022.
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Media and Research - Speeches PH Economy 2.0: Reinforcing Growth and Continuity Date: June 13, 2022 Occasion: Bloomberg Philippines NEXT Summit—Deciphering New Horizon Speaker: BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno Good afternoon. It is an honor and a pleasure to share the latest developments in the Philippine economy. The economy has grown by at least 6 percent annually until the pandemic stalled the momentum. Now, we have bounced back and returned to our robust growth path. Expansion in the first three months was broad-based. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing grew by 0.2 percent, industry rose by 10.4 percent, and services improved by 8.6 percent. In addition, household consumption increased by 10.1 percent, while government consumption grew by 3.6 percent. Exports and imports also improved with 10.3 percent and 15.6 percent expansion, respectively. With more relaxed restrictions, mobility indices improved from the levels seen at the height of the pandemic. As of May 30, mobility trends for restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters continued to show improvement. Similarly, visits to transit stations likewise increased. Against this backdrop, the Philippine economy outperforms peers. Its 8.3 percent growth in the first quarter exceeded Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand. The employment picture has also significantly improved. From February to March 2022, 1.5 million jobs were created, bringing down the unemployment rate from the peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020. Foreign direct investments are soaring. After hitting a record high of 10.5 billion US dollars in 2021, net inflow of FDIs jumped by 8.0 percent to 1.71 billion US dollars in the first two months of this year. Manufacturing conditions have likewise improved. The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index reached 54.1 in May this year, highest in over four years. Consumer confidence is on an uptrend. Consumer sentiment is less pessimistic in Q1 2022 and more optimistic for the next 12 months at 30.4 percent. Similarly, the business confidence index rose to 59.7 percent for the second quarter of the year and to 69.8 percent for the next 12 months. The economic rebound may be credited in part to the crisis-response measures of the BSP. We deployed regulatory relief measures and extraordinary liquidity assistance to the National Government. We also moved to ensure adequate liquidity in the financial system to support credit activities. The BSP extended provisional advances to the National Government worth 10.3 billion US dollars in 2020 and 2021, which was reduced to 5.7 billion US dollars in January 2022. The national government has fully paid these advances ahead of the maturity schedule on June 11, 2022. The BSP also provided big banks extra leg room to extend credit via a 200-basis points reduction in their reserve requirement ratio to just 12 percent. In total, the BSP infused to the financial system an amount equivalent to 11.3 percent of the GDP. We have also started the normalization process for our policy rate through a 25-basis point hike to 2.25 percent last May 19. Also, as part of the policy normalization process, the BSP reconfigured its government securities purchasing window into a regular intraday facility. The timing and conditions of our exit strategy continue to be data driven. It is a balancing act guided by several factors, such as inflation and growth outlook. A well-planned, well-calibrated, and well-communicated exit plan will prevent substantial market volatility, reduce potential spillovers, and sustain our recovery momentum. The Philippines is also determined to maintain fiscal discipline. After posting a higher debt-to-GDP ratio as a result of massive spending for COVID response, we are keen to return to our fiscal consolidation path. Based on the fiscal program, the national government’s debt should go down to 60.4 percent in 2024. It is worth emphasizing that our current level of debt-to-GDP ratio is well below the figure for other economies, some of which have debts over 100 percent or even 200 percent of their GDP. Our external accounts are also healthy. Our gross international reserves as of end-April this year stood at 106.8 billion US dollars, equivalent to 9.4 months’ worth of imports. The received doctrine is that three months of import cover is sufficient. In line with the movement of other emerging market currencies, the Philippine peso depreciated by 2.62 percent to P52.37 as of May 31 from its end-2021 level. The BSP keeps its market-determined exchange rate policy and intervenes only to ensure orderly market conditions and prevent excessive short-term volatility in the exchange rate. Moving on to the banking sector, banks continue to serve as a pillar of strength for the economy. Loan growth expanded at a faster rate of 10.1 percent year-on-year in April, up from 8.9 percent in March. Non-performing loans remained manageable at 4.1 percent of loan portfolio as of March this year. Banks’ capital adequacy ratio of 17.4 percent remained above the threshold levels of 10 percent and 8 percent set by the BSP and the Bank for International Settlements, respectively. Moving on to our advocacies, two of the BSP’s strategic objectives are the transformation of at least 50 percent of all retail payments in the country into digital form and the onboarding of at least 70 percent of Filipino adults in the formal financial system. With the enabling regulatory environment complemented by the pandemic that forced people to adopt modern payment systems, we are confident that we can achieve our twin targets by 2023. To further support our digitalization initiatives, the BSP has issued licenses to six digital banks. On sustainable finance, the BSP is at the forefront of promoting sustainability principles in the financial sector. We have issued regulations requiring banks to incorporate such principles into their operations. We are also among the early investors in the Bank for International Settlements’ Green Bond Fund and the Asia Green Bond Fund. The prospects for the Philippine economy are bright partly because of the strong fundamentals I have just mentioned and also because of the solid reform momentum. Even as the government was preoccupied with pandemic response, three landmark laws that further open the Philippines to foreign investors have been enacted. These are the amended Retail Trade Liberalization Act, Foreign Investments Act, and Public Services Act. During the last six years, the Duterte administration invested heavily in infrastructure under its Build, Build, Build program. I call the period 2016-2021 as the Philippines’ Golden Age of Infrastructure, with infrastructure spending as percent of GDP hitting an average of 5.0 percent. In contrast, infra spending as a percent of GDP averaged 1.5 percent from 2001 to 2009 and 2.5 from 2010 to 2015. The good news is that the incoming administration will inherit a better state of infrastructure to aid its development agenda. A total of 88 infrastructure flagship projects for completion in 2023 and beyond will e up for the next administration to continue. With the economy on the mend from the COVID-19 crisis, macroeconomic prospects are bright. The International Monetary Fund shares the view about the Philippines’ favorable economic prospects vis-à-vis its peers. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF projects the Philippines to post the fastest growth in the region this year at 6.5 percent. But this outlook is not without risk. Taking into account the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Development Budget Coordination Committee adjusted its full-year growth target to a range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent but is expected to ease back within the range in 2023. As has been announced, I have accepted the invitation by the newly elected President to lead the new economic team as finance secretary. While changes come with a new set of challenges, I believe the country will significantly benefit from the policy continuity that the incoming administration is poised to observe. I am confident that the transition in administration in the Philippines will pave the way for more economic gains for the Filipino people. Thank you for your attention.
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the UBS OneASEAN Conference, Manila, 7 June 2022.
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Media and Research - Speeches Philippines: Resilient Today, Economic Powerhouse Tomorrow Date: June 07, 2022 Occasion: UBS OneASEAN Conference Speaker: BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno Officers and staff of UBS, guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. The theme of this conference— “Who has the Power?”—is quite thought-provoking. This is a timely question, given than geopolitical tensions and elevated inflation are still happening as economies deal with the spillovers of the COVID-19 crisis. While no one is immune from the shocks, my proposition is that economies that have sound macroeconomic fundamentals and are reform-oriented have better chances of thriving. In the case of the Philippines and the rest of the ASEAN region, while the past two years of the pandemic have been difficult, strong fundamentals, and sound economic management have allowed us to bounce back. Accelerated vaccination in the second half of the year allowed easing of mobility restrictions, thus speeding up economic recovery in the ASEAN. In the case of the Philippines, which is the region’s fastest-growing economy, the 8.3-percent growth in the first quarter of 2022 exceeded analysts’ forecasts. Manufacturing activity in ASEAN region has been on expansion for eight consecutive months since the last quarter of 2021. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index for the region stood at 52.3 in May. Meanwhile, the Philippines manufacturing sector continues to expand in May at 54.1. Looking ahead, firms remain confident that manufacturing output in the region will continue to recover. Economic recovery came sooner than expected for the Philippines. With the 5.7 percent growth in 2021 and the 8.3 percent expansion in the first quarter of this year, we have returned to our pre-pandemic robust growth path, signaling the move to safely reopen the economy. By allowing economic activities amid accelerated mass vaccination and observance of health protocols, we balance the need to support the economy on one hand and manage health risks on the other. We expect growth to be even faster in the second quarter, which makes our full-year growth target of 7.0-8.0 percent for 2022 doable. The employment picture has improved. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.8 percent in March this year from the peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020. Foreign direct investments soared to an all-time-high of 10.5 billion US dollars last year. In the first two months of this year, FDIs jumped by 8.0 percent to 1.7 billion US dollars. This underscores investor confidence in the Philippines’ long-term growth prospects. All these came on the back of a whole-of-government approach to pandemic recovery. Complementing the national government’s recovery efforts, the central bank implemented its own COVID-response measures. We ensured adequate liquidity in the financial system and helped bolster domestic economic activity. Through our various response measures, the central bank has injected approximately 41.9 billion US dollars into the financial system. That’s equivalent to about 11.3 percent of GDP. The economy’s strong growth in the first quarter, together with the improved employment situation, provides scope for the BSP to scale back our pandemic response. We have thus begun the normalization process, guided by the inflation and growth outlook, state of public health, and domestic and global risks. In normalizing, we are mindful of the need to safeguard economic recovery on one hand and to control inflation on the other. Achieving that balance requires a well-calibrated and well-communicated exit strategy to avoid substantial market volatility, reduce spillovers, and continue the recovery momentum. Last May 19, we raised the key policy rate from a historic low of 2.0 percent to 2.25 percent. Also last month, the National Government already paid in full its advances from the BSP worth 54O billion pesos or approximately 10 billion US dollars. Before the pandemic, the Philippines’ debt-to-GDP ratio remains manageable and much lower compared to other economies. The increase in our debt over the last two years was due in part to the massive cost of vaccination and healthcare, and also in part to the government’s infrastructure development agenda. Under the “Build, Build, Build” program, big-ticket infrastructure projects were rolled out. These are worthwhile investments intended to increase the economy’s capacity and boost growth ahead. If our economy continues to grow between 6 and 7 percent in the next few years, the Philippines can easily outgrow its public debt. Besides a manageable fiscal situation, another fundamental strength of the Philippines is its healthy external accounts. Our hefty gross international reserves acted as a buffer during the pandemic. A reliable source of foreign exchange is remittances from overseas Filipinos. With the reopening of economies, remittances grew by 5.1 percent in 2021 and 2.4 percent in the first quarter alone of this year. Another source of foreign exchange are receipts from business process outsourcing services. They grew by 9.5 percent last year. In lien with the depreciation of other emerging market currencies due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the peso posted a manageable year-to-date depreciation of 2.6 percent to 52.37 pesos. The BSP observes a market-determined exchange rate policy. It intervenes only to ensure orderly market conditions and prevent excessive short-term volatility. Another strength of the Philippine economy is our sound and stable financial system, an offshoot of a long list of regulatory reforms since the Asian financial crisis. Prudent lending standards help banks keep their bad debts manageable while ample capitalization enables them to absorb shocks. Credit rating agencies share the view of the Philippine economy’s resilience. Amid a wave of credit rating downgrades globally resulting from the pandemic, the Philippines has managed to maintain all its investment-grade credit ratings. While policymakers were preoccupied with pandemic response, we did not lose focus on our vision of a stronger and more inclusive post-COVID economy. The BSP is contributing to this vision through its digital transformation agenda. By 2023, BSP aims to digitalize at least half of retail payments and onboard at least 70 percent of Filipino adults to the formal financial system through transaction accounts. Complementing the agenda is the new Financial Products and Services Consumer Protection Act. The law improves the resolution mechanisms for financial consumer complaints, including those involving cybercrimes. The BSP has also issued six digital banking licenses. The COVID-19 pandemic emerged as a catalyst for digitalization. As a result of the pandemic, the volume and value of electronic payments in the country grew exponentially. The BSP also contributes to the vision of a stronger post-COVID Philippine economy through its sustainable finance agenda. We have issued regulations requiring banks to incorporate sustainability principles into their operations. We are also among the early investors in the Bank for International Settlements’ Green Bond Fund and the Asian Green Bond Fund. We did not sit idly by as the virus raged. Congress approved three landmark laws that further open the Philippines to foreign investors. There are the amended Retail Trade Liberalization Act, the Foreign Investments Act, and the Public Services Act. By opening up more sectors of the economy, we anticipate an increase in job-creating investments moving forward. Infrastructure will also help the economy advance to its next stage of development. I call the period 2016-2021 as the Philippines’ Golden Age of Infrastructure, with infrastructure spending as a percent of GDP hitting an average of 5 percent. By contrast, infra spending as a percent of GDP averaged 1.5 percent from 2001-2009 and 2.5 percent from 2010 to 2018. And that’s good news for the incoming administration as it will inherit a much-improved state of infrastructure to aid its development agenda. With all these positive developments, we are optimistic about the Philippine economy. We expect the economy to grow by 7.0 to 8.0 percent this year, and by 6.0 to 7.0 percent in the next six years. The IMF also has a positive outlook on the Philippines. In April, the IMF raised its 2022 GDP growth projection for the Philippines from 6.3 to 6.5 percent, even as it downgraded its growth forecast for the global economy. That said, like the rest of the world, the Philippines faces risks to its growth outlook. These include a possible deterioration in the COVID situation and a prolonged Ukraine-Russia conflict, which has led to elevated inflation. On the risk of a deteriorating COVID situation, the Philippines continues to do mass vaccination. In fact, nationwide second-booster inoculation has begun. On inflation, the BSP’s latest estimates show that inflation for the year will reach 4.6 percent, which is above the official target range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent. Elevated inflation is seen to be temporary as estimates show this will slow down to 3.9 percent in 2023. The BSP continues to support non-monetary measures of the national government to manage inflation, including easing importation of certain food items, boosting farm productivity, and granting of direct subsidies to vulnerable citizens. We stand ready to make further adjustments in our policy settings, if deemed necessary, and we remain committed to our price stability mandate. Moving forward, the BSP’s actions and policy thrusts will continue to be anchored on its core mandates of promoting price and financial stability. Toward this end, the BSP will continue to pursue policy actions responsive to the needs of the time. On the financial sector, the BSP will intensify its monitoring and surveillance over its supervised institutions to ensure that they remain responsive to emerging risks and to promote the continued soundness, stability, resilience, and inclusivity of the banking system. Finally, on the external sector, the BSP will remain supportive of policies that will help strengthen the economy’s resilience to external shocks, including having a market-determined exchange rate, maintaining a comfortable level of reserves, and keeping the country’s external debt manageable. In closing, I would like to reiterate the proposition I made earlier in relation to the question “Who has the powers?” Amid external headwinds, strong macroeconomic fundamentals help an economy weather storms in the short term, and sound policies and commitment to reform propel it to greater heights in the long run. Given its commitment to macroeconomic stability and unrelenting reform momentum, the Philippines is harnessing its potential to remain among the most resilient economies of today and become an economic powerhouse of tomorrow. Like our ASEAN peers, we trust that our sound decisions and policies have the power to stir our countries into better and stronger economies.
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), during the Financial Stability Coordination Council (FSCC) release of the Systemic Risk Crisis Management Framework, Manila, 5 June 2022.
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Media and Research - Speeches Speech during the FSCC Release of the Systemic Risk Crisis Management Framework Date: June 05, 2022 Occasion: FSCC Release of the Systemic Risk Crisis Management Framework Speaker: BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. The last three decades have seen significant developments in the financial market. Technology has practically eliminated physical divides, while financial engineering has allowed instruments to be specifically designed for certain stakeholders with certain needs at a certain point in time. As a result, financial markets today are complex and highly interlinked across national borders. This creates a value chain as much as it provides the channels for various spillovers. We have seen, over the past three decades, the Asian Financial Crisis, the Global Financial Crisis and, more recently, the COVID-induced global recession. Although these have happened at nearly a decade’s interval between them, regulators as well as the public do not take comfort when the unexpected happens. This is the nature of crises. They are unexpected but creates significant disruptions as they unfold. Someone will always bear the costs of the least disruptions, and invariably, it is the public. As we move forward towards full recovery, now is the opportune time to look ahead, recognizing lessons from the past while anticipating the possibilities of the future. This is why the Financial Stability Coordination Council put together this Systemic Risk Crisis Management Framework which we are releasing today. Financial Stability, after all, is about systemic risks and the continuous task is to enhance the resilience of the financial system. Stability is, therefore, simply about risks and resilience, preemptively assessing the former while ensuring the latter by both avoiding shocks to the system as well as strengthening the ability to recover once those shocks occur. The SRCM is in keeping with the objective of managing systemic risks and strengthening the resilience of the system. It defines arrangements among the FSCC agencies that we will rely on in good times so that we are best organized under stressed conditions. The SRCM is a strategic document that highlights how ongoing tasks contribute to crisis management and identifying initiatives which we believe are needed moving forward. As we develop the tactical plans that underpin this strategic document, the SRCM is thus a living document that evolves with the market and the needs of its stakeholders. The Council fully understands the importance to the public of managing systemic risks and mitigating its disruptive effects. While financial stability is not about a forecast of the future, it is nonetheless all about considering all reasonable likely outcomes. Some of you may know of the mantra of Hyman Minsky who once argued that it is in good times when instabilities are developed. This explains in part why crises are often a surprise. Sometimes, we see all the gains of better days, but we may be overlooking the underlying signs of vulnerabilities being built up. While it is virtually impossible to forecast the next crisis, its timing and its specific nature, this should not stop us from being prepared. This is the essence of the SRCM and it includes technical aspects, some of which the Secretariat may share in its presentation, as well as the critical element of communication. We have always believed that highly-aware stakeholders can make well-informed choices. As regulators, however, we also do recognize that system-level outcomes may turn out to be different from the sum of the behaviors of individual stakeholders. All these challenges simply mean that systemic risk crisis management, and invariably financial stability at large, is a collective effort. Ladies and gentlemen, the ultimate objective is to improve the welfare of current and future generations. We do that through a well-functioning financial market, interlinked within its various components and collaborating with the rest of the real economy. This SRCM that we launched today can be many things at many times to many people, but it will always be about accruing the gains of financial markets, products and services to the Filipino people. This SRCM is a start, not the terminal goal. Thank you and good morning to everyone.
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 9th BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) Seminar for Public Sector, Malaga, Spain, 31 May 2022.
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Media and Research - Speeches The Philippines: Pursuing Reforms, Accelerating Growth, Reaching New Heights Date: May 31, 2022 Place: Malaga, Spain Occasion: 9th BBVA Seminar for Public Sector Speaker: BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno To the officers and staff of the Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, guests from other banks, ladies, and gentlemen, good morning. It is my pleasure to provide you an overview of the Southeast Asian region with a focus on the Philippines as an ideal investment destination. Member-economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations - or ASEAN - entered 2021 on an optimistic note with the containment of the pandemic that started in 2020. The accelerated vaccination efforts in the second half of 2021 allowed easing of mobility restrictions, thus boosting economic recovery in the region. In the case of the Philippines, its 8.3-percent growth in the first quarter of 2022 made it the fastestgrowing economy in the region. Nevertheless, risks exist. A prolonged Ukraine-Russia conflict may keep food and energy prices elevated, which may push up inflation and dampen growth in the region as most of our economies are net energy importers. The S&P Global ASEAN Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in April from 51.7 in March as business conditions in the region continued to improve despite protracted supply chain disruptions and broadening inflationary pressures. All ASEAN countries included in the regional PMI registered growth in their respective manufacturing sectors, with Singapore posting the fastest growth in manufacturing activity followed by the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia. Looking ahead, firms remain confident that manufacturing output will continue to recover. The Philippine economy’s 8.3-percent growth in the first quarter, which followed the 5.7-percent expansion in 2021, already surpassed the pre-pandemic GDP level and exceeded the median analysts’ forecast of 6.7 percent. We expect our full-year growth to range from 7.0 to 8.0 percent this year and 6.0 to 7.0 percent in 2023 to 2025. Growth in the first quarter was broad-based. On the supply side, all sectors expanded, driven by industry at 10.4 percent, followed by services at 8.6 percent. On the expenditure side, growth was driven by the 10.1-percent increase in private consumption, a stark reversal of 4.8-percent contraction in the same quarter a year ago. Investments and external trade also performed well. The employment situation has likewise improved. The unemployment rate declined to 5.8 percent last March from a peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020. More granular data indicate that the quality of employment in the country is gradually returning to the pre-pandemic levels as the recent employment gains from wage and salary workers in private establishments posted significant improvements. Foreign direct investments reached an all-time high last year of USD10.5 billion. In the first two months of this year, FDIs grew by 8.0 percent to USD1.7 billion. Manufacturing activity has strongly rebounded, with the purchasing managers’ index above the 50point threshold for the seventh consecutive month at 52.8 in April 2022. All these came on the back of a whole-of-government approach to pandemic recovery. Complementing the national government’s efforts, the central bank implemented its own COVIDresponse measures. We ensured adequate liquidity in the financial system and helped bolster domestic economic activity, Overall liquidity conditions thus continue to provide support for the economy. The various liquidityeasing measures of the central bank have injected the equivalent of approximately US$ 41.9 billion into the financial system. This is equivalent to about 11.3 percent of GDP. As the economy recovers, the central bank will scale back its extraordinary measures, guided by its outlook on inflation and growth, state of public health, and domestic and global risks to the economy. In the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings last April, the challenge of balancing the need to safeguard economic recovery and controlling inflation was highlighted. Achieving that balance requires a well-calibrated and well-communicated exit strategy. For the Philippines, economic recovery came sooner than expected. The economy grew by 8.3 percent in the first quarter. We expect the economy to grow much faster in the second quarter, making the growth target for this year of 7.0-8.0 percent doable. Moreover, employment is nearing its pre-pandemic rate. The strong rebound in domestic economic activity and improvement in the labor market conditions in Q1 2022 provide scope for the central bank to continue rolling back the pandemic-induced interventions as defined under the central bank’s exit strategy. Earlier, the central bank’s provisional advances to the national government – this is our version of QE – amounted to USD10.3 billion - in 2020 and 2021 was down to USD5.7 billion in January 2022. To date, the national government has fully paid the central bank advances. With the Philippine recovery underway, the central bank raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent last May 19. The government’s fiscal space allowed it to finance the huge COVID-19 response without incurring unmanageable debts. The government’s Comprehensive Tax Reform Program strengthened the country’s fiscal house. It simplified the tax system, increased tax rates on automobiles, petroleum, and tobacco products; expanded the value-added tax base; introduced excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages; and lowered the estate and donor’s tax. With the new tax system, the incoming administration will be in a better position to face the challenges of the post-pandemic economy. The Philippines entered the pandemic in a position of strength. Its hefty external accounts and gross international reserves acted as a buffer during the pandemic. In line with the movement of other emerging market currencies amid the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the peso depreciated but only by 2.4 percent as of May 23 from its end-2021 level. And you can see it in comparison, it depreciated the least or lower than, of course than other countries except Singapore, but the rest depreciated more. The BSP keeps its market-determined exchange-rate policy and intervenes only to ensure orderly market conditions and prevent excessive short-term volatility in the exchange rate. Our banking system is stable, benefitting from regulatory reforms over the years. Banks have been extending loans to households and businesses, with credit activity growing since August last year. Prudent lending standards of banks also help keep the rise in bad debts within manageable levels while ample capitalization enables them to absorb shocks. On digital transformation, the BSP or the central bank’s policy agenda include digitalization of the country’s payments system. By 2023, we aim to digitalize at least half of retail payments and onboard at least 70 percent of Filipino adults to the formal financial system through transaction accounts. Complementing our digitalization agenda is the new Financial Consumer Protection Act. The law improves the resolution mechanisms for financial consumer complaints, including those involving cybercrimes. The central bank has also issued six digital banking licenses. The BSP is at the forefront of promoting sustainable finance. We have issued regulations requiring banks to incorporate sustainability principles into their operations. The central bank is also among the early investors in the Bank for International Settlements’ Green Bond Fund and the Asian Green Bond Fund. Amid the pandemic, the government continued to pursue game-changing reforms that help make the Philippines a preferred investment destination. For instance, it pursued the passage of the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises or CREATE, which cut corporate income taxes to make it more competitive with our ASEAN neighbors and rationalized the fiscal incentives system. In addition, three new landmark laws further open the Philippines to foreign investors: the amendments to the Retail Trade Liberalization Act, the Foreign Investments Act, and the Public Services Act. These game-changing reforms will help stimulate the economy, generate more jobs, and allow for the exchange of skills and technology with the country’s foreign partners. The Duterte administration invested much more in infrastructure under the “Build, Build, Build” program than what previous governments have invested - around double the percentage of GDP over the past few years compared to the past few decades From 2016 to 2020, infrastructure spending as a percent of GDP averaged 4.6 percent. This increased to 5.8 percent in 2021. These numbers tell the story of the government’s commitment to improve mobility and create a better investment climate. Taking all these into consideration, we are optimistic about the Philippine economy. We expect the economy to grow by 7.0 to 8.0 percent this year and by 6.0 to 7.0 percent next year and beyond. That said, like the rest of the world, the Philippines faces risks to its growth outlook and these risks include the possible deterioration in the COVID situation and a prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the IMF has cut its global economic growth forecast in its April 2022 World Economic Outlook, it raised its GDP growth projection for the Philippines from 6.3 percent to 6.5 percent this year. On COVID-19, the Philippines is managing risks of potentially new variants emerging through sentinel surveillance and protecting the vulnerable population through accelerated vaccination. As of May 17, 68.8 million out of the target 90 million Filipinos have already been fully vaccinated. On the Ukraine-Russia conflict, there’s an impact to domestic prices, but we expect inflation to remain manageable. Based on the most recent BSP forecasts, inflation this year could average 4.6 percent. That is above our target range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent, but by next year, we expect inflation to average 3.9 percent, well within the central bank’s target range. The BSP supports timely implementation of targeted non-monetary measures by the national government to prevent price pressures from broadening. These measures include direct financial transfers to vulnerable sectors, and efforts to boost domestic production and importation of certain food commodities. The central bank stands ready to take further action following our 25-basis points rate hike in May, if necessary. Now before the pandemic hit the Philippines, we were on our way to A-level credit rating. While the virus set us back, the Philippine economy was strong and the Duterte administration continued pursuing game-changing reforms. Not surprisingly, all the international and regional rating agencies unanimously affirmed their investment-grade ratings of the Philippines throughout the pandemic despite a wave of ratings downgrades for many advanced and emerging economies. We will continue the country’s pursuit of A-level rating. And this can be done by crafting, among others, a well-thought-out fiscal consolidation framework, which has to be prepared by the Executive Department and ratified by Congress. In closing, as many of us in this room may have come to realize, the pandemic has taught us that fundamentals matter and pursuing structural reforms makes our country resilient to shocks. For the Philippines, at the height of the pandemic, we didn’t sit idly by and wait for the virus to recede. Instead, we continued to push for game-changing reforms. We continued to invest in physical and human capital. All these are meant to improve the Philippines’ competitiveness, boost its productive capacity, and make it an even more attractive investment destination. Thank you and good day.
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Speech by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) Investor Roundtable Discussion, Malaga, Spain, 29 May 2022.
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Media and Research - Speeches The Philippines: Gearing up for Greater Heights Date: May 29, 2022 Occasion: BBVA Investor Roundtable Discussion Speaker: BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno Good day, everyone. Thank you to BBVA for giving us the opportunity to update you on the Philippine economy. Allow me to highlight our connection with Spain. Over the years, Spain has been an important ally, contributing to our trade growth. Spain and the rest of the European Union support our initiatives, particularly the Build, Build, Build program, which I will be talking in detail. The Philippines has successfully managed the COVID-19 health crisis on the back of strong fundamentals built through decades of structural reforms and sound macroeconomic management. After the pandemic-driven recession in 2020, the economy grew by 5.7 percent last year and 8.3 percent in the first quarter this year. We attribute this to much-relaxed mobility and activity restrictions as the country was able to manage the spread of COVID-19. Growth in the first quarter was broad-based. On the supply side, all sectors expanded, driven by industry at 10.4 percent, followed by services at 8.6 percent. On the expenditure side, growth was driven by 10.1-percent increase in private consumption, a stark reversal of 4.8-percent contraction in the same quarter a year ago. Investments and external trade performed well, too. Its latest robust performance has made the Philippines the fastest growing economy in the region. The employment picture is close to pre-pandemic level. From a peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020, unemployment rate was down to just 5.8 percent in March this year. Foreign direct investments reached an all-time high last year. In the first two months of the year, FDIs grew by 8.0 percent to USD1.7 billion. Manufacturing activity has strongly rebounded, with the purchasing managers’ index at 54.3 in April, the highest in four years. All these came on the back of a whole-of-government approach to pandemic recovery. In tandem with the national government’s efforts, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas implemented its own array of COVID-response measures. In sum, the central bank has injected over PhP2.2 trillion, or approximately US$ 41.9 billion into the financial system. This is equivalent to about 11.3 percent of GDP. Even as the country transitions from one administration to another - and this will take place on July 1st - the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will continue to fulfill its mandate of ensuring sound macroeconomic management. On the whole, there are clear signs that the new administration will continue the key reforms and programs of the outgoing administration. As the economy recovers, the central bank recognizes the need to scale back its extraordinary measures. The timing and conditions of the BSP’s exit strategy will continue to be guided by the inflation and growth outlook over the medium term, the state of public health, and domestic and global risks to the economy. Earlier, the BSP provided provisional advances to the national government of P540 billion – or approximately USD10.3 billion - in 2020 and 2021. It was down to P300 billion as of January 2022. And to date, the national government has fully paid the central bank’s advances to the national government. Unwinding the extraordinary measures was one of the messages highlighted during the IMF-Word Bank Spring Meetings held last April. Balancing the need to safeguard economic recovery and controlling inflation would be a key challenge for policymakers going forward. The balancing act requires a well-planned, well-calibrated, and well-communicated exit strategy to avoid causing substantial market volatility, reduce potential spillovers, and continue the recovery momentum. For the Philippines, economic recovery came sooner than expected. The economy grew by 8.3 percent in the first quarter of this year. We expect the economy to grow much faster in Q2, making the growth target for this year of 7.0-8.0 percent doable. Moreover, employment is nearing its pre-pandemic rate. In response to these developments, we have started the normalization process. We recently raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent last May 19. For the Philippines, economic recovery came sooner than expected. The economy grew by 8.3 percent in the first quarter of this year. We expect the economy to grow much faster in Q2, making the growth target for this year of 7.0-8.0 percent doable. Moreover, employment is nearing its pre-pandemic rate. In response to these developments, we have started the normalization process. We recently raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent last May 19. The government’s fiscal space allowed it to spend massively on COVID-19 response without incurring unmanageable debts. We reformed the tax system. We simplified the tax structure, rationalized fiscal incentives, reduced personal and commercial income tax rates, increased excise taxes on oil, cigarettes, and sweetened beverages. With the new tax system, the incoming administration will be in a better position to face the challenges of the post-COVID economy. The Philippines also enjoys healthy external accounts, with hefty gross international reserves that served as buffer during this pandemic. Meanwhile, the peso depreciated by 2.43 percent to ₱52.27 as of May 23 from its end-2021 level. This mirrors the market sentiment affecting all emerging markets across the globe amid the RussiaUkraine conflict. The movement of the peso is within the range of the National Government’s macroeconomic assumptions for the year. We keep our market-determined exchange-rate policy and we intervene only to ensure orderly market conditions and to prevent excessive short-term volatility in the exchange rate. The stable banking system—which benefitted from regulatory reforms over the years—remains able to provide credit to consumers and businesses. Loan growth is steadily picking up. Prudent lending standards of banks also help keep the rise in bad debts within manageable levels while ample capitalization enables them to absorb shocks. On digital transformation, the central bank’s policy agenda includes digitalization of the country’s payments system. By 2023 or next year, we aim to digitalize at least half of all financial transactions and onboard at least 70 percent of all Filipino adults into the formal financial system. Complementing our digitalization agenda is the new Financial Consumer Protection Act. The law improves the resolution mechanisms for financial consumer complaints including those involving cybercrimes. The BSP has also issued six digital banking licenses, in line with our Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap. On sustainability, the central bank is at the forefront of promoting sustainability principles in the financial sector. We have issued regulations requiring banks to incorporate such principles into their operations. We are also among the early investors in the Bank of International Settlements’ Green Bond Fund and the Asian Green Bond Fund. The Philippine government did not let this unprecedented crisis go to waste. It did not sit idly by and wait for the coronavirus to subside. Instead, it continued to pursue game-changing reforms that help make the Philippines a preferred investment destination. The government sustained the reform momentum in consonance with its pandemic response. For instance, it pursued the passage of the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises or CREATE Act, which cut corporate income tax to make it competitive with our ASEAN neighbors and we rationalized the fiscal incentives system. In addition, three landmark laws further opened the Philippines to foreign investors: the amended Retail Trade Liberalization Act, the Foreign Investments Act, and the Public Services Act. These game-changing reforms will help stimulate the economy, generate more jobs, improve basic services to Filipino consumers and allow for the exchange of skills and technology with the country’s foreign partners. Over the last six years, the Philippines invested massively in infrastructure under the “Build, Build, Build” program, which I originally called the Golden Age of Infrastructure in the Philippines. The goal is to make up for past neglect which earned the Philippines the distinction of having one of the poorest public infrastructures in the ASEAN region. From 2016 to 2020, infrastructure spending as percent of GDP averaged 4.6 percent. In 2021, actual infrastructure spending reached PHP1.1 trillion or 5.8 percent of GDP. One thing is certain: the incoming administration will inherit a better state of infrastructure to help in its socioeconomic agenda. The next administration will inherit a robust pipeline of implementationready infrastructure projects. A total of 88 infrastructure flagship projects for completion next year and beyond will be up to the next administration to continue. Taking all these into consideration, we are optimistic about the Philippine economy. We expect the economy to grow by 7.0 to 8.0 percent this year, and by 6.0 to 7.0 percent next year and beyond. That said, like the rest of the world, the Philippines faces risks to its growth outlook. Among which are deterioration in the COVID situation and a prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the IMF has cut its global economic growth forecast in its April 2022 World Economic Outlook or WEO, it raised its GDP growth projection for the Philippines from 6.3 percent to 6.5 percent this year. On COVID-19, the Philippines is managing risks of potentially new variants emerging through sentinel surveillance and protecting the vulnerable population through accelerated vaccination. As of May 17, 68.8 million out of the target 90 million Filipino population have already been fully vaccinated. Now on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the channel through which we see the most material impact is on domestic prices, but even here, we expect this to be manageable. Based on the most recent BSP forecast, inflation this year could average 4.6 percent – much lower than what you see in the developing world, but that is slightly above our target range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent. And by next year, we expect inflation to average 3.9 percent, which is within our target band. The BSP supports timely implementation of targeted non-monetary measures by the national government to prevent price pressures from broadening. These include direct financial transfers to vulnerable sectors, and efforts to boost domestic production and importation of certain food commodities. For its part, the central bank is prepared to take preemptive action when there are stronger indications of possible disanchoring of inflation expectations. Before the pandemic hit, we were on our way to A-level credit rating. While the virus set us back, the Philippine economy was strong and the Duterte administration carried on its game-changing reforms. Not surprisingly, all the international and regional rating agencies unanimously affirmed the Philippines’ investment-grade ratings throughout the pandemic despite a wave of ratings downgrades for many advanced and emerging economies. Now, the next administration has to continue the country’s pursuit of A-level rating. This can be done by crafting, among others, a well-thought-out fiscal consolidation framework, which has been prepared by the Executive Department and ratified by Congress. So why take interest in the Philippines? The Philippines is currently in a demographic sweet spot. It has a younger population compared with the rest of the world. It has a rich talent pool, having an annual average of 750,000 graduates across disciplines, forming a deep manpower pool of 45 million well-educated and hard-working workforce. In an ageing world, having a population with a median age of 25.7 is an asset. Moreover, the Philippines’ location is favorable for key markets as it is situated at the heart of major trading routes. At the height of the pandemic, as I said earlier, we didn’t sit idly by and wait for the virus to recede. Instead, we pushed for game-changing reforms. We continued to invest in physical infrastructure and human capital. All these are meant to improve the Philippines’ competitiveness, boost its productive capacity, and make the Philippines an even more attractive investment destination. In closing, we invite you to continue engaging with us. We thank our partners in Spain who have played significant roles in the Philippine economic narrative. And for those who have yet to do business with the Philippines, we urge you to take a look at our promising economy as we soar to new heights. Thank you and good morning.
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Speech (virtual) by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 2022 BOJ-IMES Conference, hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 26 May 2022.
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Media and Research - Speeches Central Banking in the New Frontier Date: May 26, 2022 Occasion: 2022 BOJ-IMES Conference Speaker: BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno Deputy Governor Wakatabe, my co-panelists, ladies and gentlemen, good day. It is my pleasure to share the latest updates and developments in the Philippines, as well as how the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas adapts and adjusts to the challenges of an ever-changing environment. The Philippines continues to beat the odds. The Philippines continues to beat the odds. As the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth outlook, it upgraded the Philippines' for this year from 6.3 to 6.5 percent. For its part, the government projects the economy to growth anywhere between 7.0 and 8.0 percent this year, and by a range of 6.0 to 7.0 percent next year. While the health and economic headwinds we faced were strong, we were quick to address and recover from them. By expanding our healthcare capacity and accelerating our vaccination program, we were able to contain the virus. This has allowed us to ease mobility restrictions and reopen our borders to foreign tourists. In the first quarter of the year, our gross domestic product grew by a stunning 8.3 percent— surpassing most projections. This growth serves as a good start, keeping us on track of achieving our 7.0 to 9.0 percent growth target for 2022. Last year, gross domestic product grew by 5.7 percent, recovering most of the losses from the record 9.6-percent contraction in 2020. The jobs market bounced back owing to increased mobility and economic activities. From the peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020, the unemployment rate dropped to 6.4 percent in February and further to 5.8 percent in March this year, the lowest since the pandemic. Inflation in April stood at 4.9 percent, which was within our monthly forecast range. Year-to-date inflation settled at 3.7 percent, which is manageable and within the official target range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent. Our latest estimates show full-year inflation at 4.6 percent in 2022. This revised forecast already incorporates the impact of higher global non-oil prices, continued shortage in food commodities, and possible transportation fare hikes due to higher oil prices. Yet, we see inflation easing back to within-target range at 3.9 percent in 2023. With strong economic growth numbers and fast normalizing labor market, we see the need for monetary action. As evidence of second-round effects manifest, we deemed it timely to increase our key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent. This is consistent with our intended strategic exit and gradual withdrawal of extraordinary liquidity interventions. Earlier, the BSP's provisional advances to the national government of 10.3 billion US dollars in 2020 and 2021 was reduced to 5.7 billion US dollars in January 2022. The National Government fully settled these advances last May 20, ahead of maturity on June 11, 2022. Now this conference’s theme, “New Dimensions and Frontiers in Central Banking,” could not be timelier given the extraordinary conditions we are in amid the ongoing pandemic, geopolitical risks, and climate change. The challenges brought by the pandemic, especially on our payment systems, have served as an effective catalyst for the financial sector to evolve and innovate. And this is especially true for our payment systems. Even before the pandemic, the BSP has already formulated a roadmap to transform the country’s payments system into an efficient, inclusive, safe, and secure digital payment ecosystem that supports the diverse needs and capabilities of individuals and firms. Among our strategic objectives are to convert at least half of the country’s financial transactions into digital form and to have at least 70 percent of Filipino adults with transaction accounts. In 2002, the BSP established the Philippine Payment and Settlement System or PhilPaSS, a realtime gross settlement system that processes and settles interbank high-value payment transactions through demand deposit accounts of the bank maintained with the central bank. In the first five years of operations, PhilPaSS processed around 1,400 transactions on average in a day—valued at P350 billion per day. This grew by leaps and bounds in 2015 to 2019, recording over 6,400 daily volume of transactions on average, which were valued at P1.3 trillion per day. Moving toward an open banking system, PhilPaSS was enhanced into PhilPaSSplus, which accommodates the growing number of settlements between financial institutions while having stringent controls to support security of transactions. The National Retail Payment System or NRPS, our flagship program for digital finance, promotes a digital finance ecosystem where individuals, businesses, and government entities can take advantage of technology to enhance the efficiency and reliability of transferring funds. There are two interoperable clearing houses in the country--PESONet and Instapay. As of March 31, 2022, participating banks and electronic money issuers registered with PESONet stood at 96, while that with InstaPay totaled 66. Likewise, the digital payment streams of the National QR Code Standard, or QR Ph, has expanded to cover person-to-merchant and person-to-person payments. We are also broadening the use cases for three digital payment streams this year. First is the interoperable Bills Pay Facility, which will address the existing fragmented bills payment mechanism. Second is the Request to Pay Facility, which will empower payees to initiate collections of nonrecurring receivables. Third is the Direct Debit, which will allow customers to better manage recurring payments. We have also issued the open finance and digital banking frameworks to accelerate digital transformation and financial inclusion. The Open Finance Framework promotes consent-driven data portability, interoperability, and collaborative partnerships among entities that adhere to the same standards of data security and privacy. The Digital Banking Framework provides the regulatory guidelines for setting up and operating a digital bank in the country. In line with our digital transformation roadmap, the BSP has issued licenses to six purely digital banks. The BSP, or the central bank, has also commenced initiatives in the digitalization of offshore payments. We are prioritizing the establishment of interoperable cross-border real-time retail payment systems among ASEAN member states. With digitalization and financial technology re-shaping the landscape of the Philippine banking system, the central bank stands ready to reform, innovate, and transform. We do so by providing an enabling regulatory environment to keep pace with the evolving developments in the financial system and to prepare the country as it faces the challenges of the future. Moving forward, I see these wide-ranging reforms ultimately creating tangible economic benefits to the Filipino public, as the central bank remains committed to promoting price stability and a resilient, responsive, and inclusive financial system. I’ll stop here. Thank you.
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Speech (virtual) by Mr Benjamin E Diokno, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Citi Virtual Macro Forum, 16 May 2022.
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Media and Research - Speeches Philippines: Toward Soaring New Heights Date: May 16, 2022 Occasion: Citi Virtual Macro Forum Speaker: BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno Good day, everyone. Thank you for inviting me to the Citi Virtual Macro Forum to share updates on the Philippine economy. Two years ago, in this same virtual roundtable discussion organized by Citi, I expressed my confidence in the Philippine economy’s strengths on three critical factors—pre-crisis fundamentals, emergency response, and structural/development reforms. Now, I can tell you that we have weathered the unprecedented crisis during the past two years because of the country’s strong fundamentals, which were built through decades of continued implementation of structural reforms and sound macroeconomic management. The Philippines is well on its way to full recovery. After the pandemic-driven recession in 2020, the economy grew by 5.7 percent last year and sustained its robust momentum with an 8.3 percent growth in the first quarter of 2022. Now, our original growth target of 7-9 percent this year appears to be doable. The relaxation of mobility and activity restrictions for most of the country sustained growth as we are able to better control the spread of COVID-19. Growth in the first quarter was broad-based. On the supply side, all sectors expanded, driven by industry at 10.4 percent, followed by services at 8.6 percent. On the expenditure side, growth was driven by private consumption which grew by 10.1 percent, a stark reversal from the -4.8 percent in the same quarter a year ago, owing to much relaxed quarantine restrictions. Investments and external trade performed well, too. The employment picture is close to its pre-pandemic level. From a peak of 17.6 percent in April 2020, the unemployment rate is down to just 5.8 percent in March this year. Moreover, foreign direct investments reached an all-time high last year, growing by 54.2 percent. In the first two months of the year, FDIs were up by 8.0 percent to USD1.7 billion. Manufacturing activity has strongly rebounded, with the purchasing managers’ index hit 54.3 in April - the highest in four years. Both business sentiment and consumer outlook have improved. Our business expectation survey shows broad improvements in outlook in the next quarter and year. All these came on the back of a whole-of-government approach to recovery. In tandem with the national government’s efforts, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas implemented its own list of COVID-response measures. First, we cut policy rate by a cumulative 200 basis points to a record low of two percent. This move helped stimulate provision of credit to productive activities. We reduced the reserve requirement against deposit and deposit substitute liabilities. For universal-commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions, we cut the reserve requirement from 14 percent to 12 percent effective April 3, 2020. For thrift Banks and rural-cooperative banks, we reduced it from 4 percent to 3 percent effective July 31, 2020. Second, we extended short-term provisional advances to the national government and purchased government securities in the secondary market to help finance its COVID-19-response programs. In sum, the BSP has injected over PhP2.2 trillion or approximately USD 41.9 billion into the financial system. This is equivalent to about 11.2 percent of the GDP. And third, the BSP put in place key regulatory and operational relief measures for banks. These measures helped calm down the market, maintain the financial system’s stability, and ensure the public’s continued access to financial services. Even as the country transitions from one administration to another, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will continue to fulfill its mandate of ensuring sound macroeconomic management. On the whole, there are clear signs that the new administration will continue the key reforms and programs of the outgoing administration. As the economy recovers, the BSP recognizes the need to scale back its extraordinary measures. The timing and conditions of the BSP’s exit strategy will continue to be guided by the inflation and growth outlook over the medium term, the state of public health, and domestic and global risks to the economy. Economies with strong fundamentals tend to handle crises better. As such, it pays to strengthen fundamentals during good times so that the economy has buffers against shocks in bad times. In the case of the Philippines, it entered the pandemic with strong macroeconomic fundamentals. Its healthy external accounts and hefty gross international reserves served as buffer during the pandemic. The government’s fiscal space allowed it to finance its huge COVID-19 response without incurring unmanageable public sector debts. The government’s Comprehensive Tax Reform Program strengthened the country’s fiscal house. The CTRP, which simplified the tax system; increased tax on automobiles, petroleum and tobacco products; expanded the value added tax base; introduced excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverage and cosmetic procedures; and simplified estate and donor’s tax. At the same time, the stable banking system—which benefitted from regulatory reforms over the years—was able to extend credit to consumers and businesses. As a result, credit activity has picked up since August last year. In addition, prudent lending standards of banks helped to keep the rise in bad debts within manageable levels while ample capitalization enables them to absorb shocks. The banks’ capital adequacy ratio (CAR) on a consolidated basis was 17.4 percent in September 2021, much higher than the BSP’s requirement of 10 percent, and the Bank for International Settlements’ 8 percent. On digital transformation, the BSP’s policy agenda include digitalization of the country’s payments system. As the economy gradually reopens, we seek to further promote innovative contactless payment technology and onboard more Filipinos into the formal financial system. By 2023, we aim to digitalize at least 50 percent of retail payments and at least 70 percent of Filipino adults should have transaction accounts. Complementing this reform is the recently passed Financial Consumer Protection Act. The legislation provides regulators more power to act on, and improves the resolution mechanisms for, financial consumer complaints, including those involving cybercrimes. In line with our Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap, the BSP has also issued six digital banking licenses. On sustainability, the BSP is at the forefront of promoting sustainability principles in the financial sector. We have issued regulations requiring banks to incorporate such principles into their operations. We are also among the early investors in the Bank for International Settlements’ Green Bond Fund and the Asian Green Bond Fund. The Duterte administration did not let the unprecedented crisis go to waste. It did not sit idly by and wait for the coronavirus to subside; instead, it continued to pursue game-changing reforms which would make the Philippines a preferred investment destination by investors. The government sustained the reform momentum in consonance with its pandemic response. For instance, it pursued the passage of the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises or CREATE law, which cut corporate income tax and rationalizes the fiscal incentives system. In addition, three landmark laws further open the Philippines to foreign investors. These include the amended Retail Trade Liberalization Act, the Foreign Investments Act, and Public Services Act—all of which bode well for job creation. These game-changing reforms will help stimulate the economy, generate more jobs, improve basic services to Filipino consumers and allow for the exchange of skills and technology with the country’s foreign partners. The Duterte administration invested massively in infrastructure under the “Build, Build, Build” program, which I originally called the Golden Age of Infrastructure in the Philippines. The goal is to make up for past neglect which earned the Philippines the distinction of having one of the poorest public infrastructure in the ASEAN region. From 2016 to 2020, infrastructure spending as percent of GDP averaged 4.6 percent. In 2021, actual infrastructure spending reached PHP1.12 trillion or 5.8 percent of GDP. One thing is certain: the incoming administration will inherit a better state of infrastructure to help in its socioeconomic agenda. The next administration will inherit a robust pipeline of implementationready infrastructure projects. A total of 88 infrastructure flagship projects for completion in 2023 and beyond will be up to the next administration to continue. Taking all these into consideration, we are optimistic that the Philippine economy will do better this year. With the economy growing at 8.3 percent in Q1, we expect it to grow by 7.0 to 9.0 percent this year, and by 6.0 to 7.0 percent next year. That said, like the rest of the world, the Philippines faces risks to its growth outlook. Among the risks are the resurgence of the COVID-19 virus and a prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict. On COVID-19, the Philippines is managing risks of potentially new variants emerging through sentinel surveillance and protecting the vulnerable population through accelerated vaccination. As of last May 10, 68.4 million out of the target 90 million Filipino population have already been fully vaccinated. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be mainly through higher energy and oil prices. But we expect this to be manageable. Based on latest estimates of the BSP, inflation could average slightly above the 2.0- to 4.0-percent target range this year and then move back to within the target band next year. As such, the BSP supports timely implementation of targeted non-monetary measures by the government to prevent price pressures from broadening. These include direct financial transfers to vulnerable sectors (transport workers, farmers, and fisher folks), and efforts to boost domestic production and importation of certain food commodities. For its part, the BSP is prepared to take preemptive action when there are stronger indications of a possible dis-anchoring of inflation expectations. Before the pandemic hit, the Philippines was on its way to A-level credit rating. While the virus set us back, the Philippine economy is strong, and the Duterte administration carried on its game-changing reforms. Not surprisingly, the international and regional rating agencies unanimously affirmed their investment grade ratings of the Philippines throughout the pandemic despite a wave of ratings downgrades of many advanced and emerging economies.. The next administration has to continue the country’s pursuit of A-level rating. This can be done by crafting, among others, a well thought out fiscal consolidation framework, which is prepared by the Executive Department and ratified by Congress. The framework should include: (a) timely and efficient implementation of the amended tax laws and the recent amendments to the Retail Trade Act, Foreign investments Act, and Public Service Act; (b) efficient allocation of budgetary resources by higher investment in public infrastructure and human resources; (c) improving the tax-spending mix of local government units; and (d) rationalizing the pension benefits of retired military personnel. In order to ensure full economic recovery and to sustain the Philippines’ long-term growth trajectory, the government has to pursue game changing reforms with vigor and resoluteness. Before I end, allow me to share some key takeaways: • The Philippines’ macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound and solid. • The Philippines was set to attain upper middle-income status before the pandemic. This remains doable within the year provided the current favorable economic performance is sustained. • The BSP’s withdrawal of policy accommodation will be done as recovery becomes fully underway, while remaining strongly focused on maintaining price stability; and • Consistent with its price stability mandate, the BSP is prepared to respond to a sustained build-up of inflation pressures and second-round effects that can disanchor inflation expectations. In closing, let me stress the importance of harnessing bright spots to respond and overcome the current challenges that we face. Despite growing uncertainties, here and abroad, may we cover more grounds and soar to new heights—for the country and the Filipino people. Thank you for your attention.
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Bankers' Association of the Philippines (BAP) 2nd CEO Forum, Manila, 24 October 2022.
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Felipe M Medalla: Banking on solid ground - the role of banks in postpandemic recovery Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Bankers' Association of the Philippines (BAP) 2nd CEO Forum, Manila, 24 October 2022. *** To our friends – my friends – in the banking industry, my own colleagues from the central bank who are here, guests, good afternoon. It is great to see familiar faces, especially after what I thought was a very joyful reunion that we had at the central bank after almost three years. Thank you for inviting BSP to your second CEO Forum and for the opportunity to speak to all of you. We at the BSP have always valued these kinds of discussions. Indeed, I look forward to what you have to say after my speech. Do not worry if it is critical of the central bank – I will not remember if it is you who said it; I will blame it on another bank. Clarity of Policy Intent I have always believed that the BSP is more effective when you understand us – not just what we do, but why we do it – especially at a time like this where there is so much confusion. "Is the central bank still an inflation-targeting central bank, or has it become an exchange rate-fixing central bank?" Because-if you are fixing the exchange rate, then your interest rate is [equivalent to] the US interest rate plus the risk premium. In the absence of risk, like depreciation, [and] because no country ever defaults on its own currency, then we just go to where it is [the interest rate] higher, as shown in Hong Kong. Hong Kong cannot have an interest rate different from the United States. Indeed, I ran a few regressions where the correlation between market rates in Hong Kong is much closer to the United States than any other country in the sample that I have for a very simple reason – it is a fixed exchange rate. So, this has to be explained: why does it seem like we are "too concerned" about the exchange rate? Why were we not as concerned before? But before I do that, I must address the topic, which is your role. Congruence of Goals In summary, your role is very simple: do your job well. There is no other industry where doing your job well is as close as it can be to serving the country. Of course, that [also] applies to central bank governors because our job is to do things for the country. In your case, you are doing business [and] seeking profits, but if you do it well and do it under the rules, you are actually serving the country. That is not a new thing. There are times when self-interest and the country's interest can coincide, and I cannot think of a better example of that than of a banker who follows the rules. Now, a colleague of mine... found that a collapse of a stock market bubble hurts the economy a lot less over the medium run than a collapse of a real estate bubble. The collapse of a real estate bubble is linked to a long period of abnormally low growth rates for three, four, even five years, while the collapse of the stock market bubble had [little 1/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches to] no effects on the economy. Of course, she did not explain why that is the case, [but] I have a simple explanation: banks do not lend to stock market speculators. They lend a lot to real estate. So real estate... [when it slows], it hurts the banking industry, which in turn, results in banks being too risk-averse and, therefore, a prolonged period of slow growth. Indeed, this concept is not in the textbooks: the concept of balance sheet recession. When balance sheets get destroyed [by a crisis], the economy grows slower. Because as anyone who has taken a course in accounting knows, a lot of lending happens to be based on balance sheets, and there is nothing like a weak balance sheet to make people risk-averse. So, if it is the balance sheet of the banks that are weak, the impact on the economy is prolonged. During that period of balance sheet fixing, we experience abnormally low periods of growth. Fortunately, we learned that from the Asian Financial Crisis. Fortunately, our regulations, which we got [and enhanced] from previous dialogues with you, acknowledged that that was very important. [Deputy Governor] Chuchi [Fonacier] will testify to that. We had lots of debates about how quickly we will move towards Basel II. Maybe we are moving too fast? And we decided, no, there is no such thing as moving too fast. I think it's now paying dividends. Of course, we are running out of acronyms to discuss all this: LCR, Net Stable Funding Ratio... I forgot all the acronyms that we watch. Of course, I have been told, "Sometimes, you are overwhelming us, bureaucrats. You are overwhelming us with tools!" But it turns out those tools work. My point is that banks play a huge role. Anybody in the private sector could have the same responsibilities as a public official. By the way, I take my oath as a public official very seriously. The last line says, "no intention of shirking from the responsibilities of performing your duties." The last part has something to do with following God – even if you are an Atheist, you will take that oath seriously. Because even if you do not believe in God, you have your own conscience. Now, I will go quickly to the slides. Banks sustained solid footing during the COVID-19 pandemic: adequate capital buffers, expanding assets, ample liquidity, growing deposits, and lending have recovered. So, the best way to summarize this is that you have grown without sacrificing safety. You have grown without sacrificing stability. Our banks are growing in a healthy way without sacrificing the stability of the system and, at the same time, protecting depositors. Of course, that is the entire point of capitalization requirements. [Deputy Governor] Chuchi [Fonacier] always tells me this: capitalization should match the riskiness of your assets. Now, in other words, if you lose money, it should be your money, not your depositors' money. It is hard to think of economic development without thinking of institutions. It was said, "The reason a market-based economy progresses is because people's creativity is empowered." And you want to do things that are good for yourself...but it is not just you that benefits, but [also] the entire society. But it was also said that for societies that are most progressive, a very important part of that are the things that you are not allowed to 2/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches do. Of course, 'Thou shall not kill.' 'Thou shall not steal.' 'Thou shall not covet your neighbor's wife.' My point is that we must give credit to the industry, and we must give credit to all of you who were young folks during the Asian Financial Crisis. I think this is one reason why we are successful. Now, we have people who are running the banks [that] do not see the Asian Financial Crisis as a theoretical thing; they were actually there when it happened. They were not running the banks [at that time], but they were close enough to the action to know that that should never happen again. Regulators, too, said that should never happen again. We should have larger reserves despite [contrary] advice from the IMF. By the way, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – the other source of thinking – said Asian central banks were actually correct in building up reserves. Of course, the question now is, what do you do with those reserves now that times are getting challenging? If I were to lecture now and talk about the topic, that is it. You are doing a good job. You are doing it by following regulations. You are serving the country. And as we engage in dialogue to finetune and improve the regulations, we become an even better economy. A good sign is your own patience in us not fulfilling our promise to make the reserve requirement a single digit, that you are willing to wait until June 29, 2023. Note that at these trying times, the most effective thing to do would be to raise the reserve requirements. And we are not doing it. We think we should use market-friendly tools to reduce excessive liquidity. Of course, that is why we are growing our issuance of central bank (CB) bills. That is why we are hoping you will sell down some of your bills to your trust department. Because our research shows that sterilization of excess liquidity by borrowing from banks is the weakest form of sterilization because you can change your mind and lend the money [instead]. On the other hand, deposits in the trust accounts are more sticky; these tend to get rolled over. Fortunately, the law now allows the BSP to borrow from the public. Of course, it is more convenient that it has done in primary auctions where only the banks can participate. That is why we are simplifying the rules on prohibitions on foreign money and non-resident funds in our monetary operations facilities. [We issued a circular where] if 10 percent of the fund is non-resident, it's still [classified as a] resident. This is the very thing – the regulators and the regulated industry have this constant dialogue. We understand each other, and you understand why we do what we do. I admire that you are working on corporate risk governance. Of course, we have dreams of incorporating environmental risks into the [financial] system. [From] my point of view, we are rounding error in global warming, but we should not forget that environmental risks may also affect default rates. We hope the banks will incorporate that when pricing their loans. That is my last message on our second pillar. Challenges on the road to a Target-consistent Inflation Path There are two more pillars. The first one, of course, is price stability. Now, let us go to the first pillar. What you can see is that we have adjusted our [inflation] forecast. 3/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches What it is saying is that our [average inflation] forecast [for 2022] is 5.6 percent. The simple explanation for that is that while it [the latest inflation print] is 6.9 percent, the earlier months were much lower, so the [full-year] average is forecast to be 5.6 percent. If not for the earlier months, this [full-year figure] would have been 6 percent or even 6.5 percent. What we are saying now is the average inflation next year that we foresee – by the way, this does not take into account a lot more actions that we will take. I said, and I hope my colleagues in the Monetary Board will forgive me [for saying], "If I am the only one voting, I will match the next Fed increase." The interest rate differential has just become too narrow. And I really do not believe in imposing capital controls – it does more harm than good... a country that cannot limit the number of buses on EDSA, a country where half the vehicles are colorum, has no business imposing capital controls. All that will do is the flows will get disguised as "trade" flows. Therefore, we now have to go and examine every trade flow...There are short-term returns, but there is a long-run cost to doing such. This is the other [good] thing you will notice about us. We could have gone back to the old days, imposing all these restrictive capital [rules]...So when you see [BSP Treasurer] Winnie [Santiago] and [BSP Financial Supervision Deputy Governor] Chuchi [Fonacier] together, we are angry. But we will never impose capital controls. What this means, of course, is that we believe that the inflation rate in the first half of next year will remain high - but it will be closer to 3 percent in the last half. But on average, there is more than a 50/50 chance that we might miss it. That is why it is 4.1 percent, not 4 percent. We are hoping that it will at least be more than a 50/50 chance, and I now believe we must be a little bit more aggressive, also because the economy can withstand it. Maybe, after all, the IMF is right? The IMF [growth] forecast is 5.5 percent; ADB is 6.2 percent. Of course, I believe in the DBCC [growth target] - 6.5 percent. That said, I have been quoted in the papers that I believe that the Fed will do another 75 bps [hike]. How exactly we will respond to the future actions of the Fed, we will be data-dependent. But, in my view, the data already says that given their inflation, given what is happening to the exchange rate, we must respond to the Fed point by point. If they do 75, we do 75. If they do 50, we do 50. If they do 1 [100 bps], we do 1 [100 bps]. The point is that we have to bring back inflation to a target-consistent path...I was looking at an article that says the level of the Fed raises are not the highest, but the rate of increase is the highest. Maybe, to some extent, it's partially true here [in the Philippines]. Now, let me go back. Why was there a need to act? Because of the pandemic. The pandemic hurt us so much that if we had not acted, the economy would have contracted by 15 percent rather than 10 percent. So we brought the policy rate to a record-low of 2 percent. We extended 600 billion in interest-free loans to the government, which they have already paid. In addition, the bond markets were going crazy. The theory says the pandemic will reduce demand for capex and increase the motive to save; therefore, interest rates will fall. But the markets were doing exactly the 4/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches opposite. Because as [former Bank of England governor] Lord King said, "The Philippine preference will dominate the equilibration of savings and investment." Since "savings and investment" is very Keynesian, it must always be equal in the end. The only way it will be equal is if people become poorer. If the plan to save becomes too much, the only way to reduce it is if people must have less to save. This is the classic Keynesian recession. The BSP did not like that, so we were aggressive. We thought, at that time, [as the economy was emerging] out of the pandemic, rising yields would destroy confidence, destroy the economy to the point that we would not recover. And the plan was to exit from that [accommodative measures] gradually. If you noticed, our first two [rate] increases were 25 bps. But of course, a lot of things have changed – the Ukraine war and the fact that while everybody was forecasting US inflation will be low and transitory, what happened? Exactly the opposite: [US inflation was] high and persistent. All these things together made us exit a lot faster than we planned. What was the result? The result, of course, if you compare the two, we raised our policy rate by 25 bps, 25 bps, 75 bps, 50 bps, and 50 bps. In the case of the US, they did 25 bps, 50 bps, 75 bps, 75 bps, and 75 bps. We did not match the Fed. But then, in the process, the interest rate differential would become too narrow. If they do another 75 and we will do [only] 50, the differential would be much too narrow for comfort. Calibrating the Policy Levers in our Tool Kit If you look at it, it is really true that what you have is a strong dollar and not a weak peso. Of course, if you are the person who is being hurt by the exchange rate, you will not care about the difference – imported goods are still expensive because [they are] dollar-denominated. If you notice, if you take out the JPY and KRW and add the Euro, take out the HKD, SGD, and IDR, the other currencies are almost all the same on the chart. Indeed, the reason the HKD is different is because it's pegged to the US dollar. And Indonesia. Why [did they depreciate by only 8.5 percent]? They actually benefitted [from high energy prices]. Coal went from $50/ton to $200/ton. If you take out those things, you will notice we are all being affected the same way. Of course, in our case, one of our strengths is that we have more than ample reserves and we have very durable remittances. Large as it is, our remittances are still growing by 4 percent, even during the worst of times. Of course, we also have BPO and FDIs. In general, what we are doing is actually quite simple: three tools. One is adjust interest rates. The second one is let the peso-dollar rate serve as a shock absorber. Since this shock tremendously increases the price of our imports, the price of dollars will rise. Therefore, we must let the currency adjust. These are fundamental. But if too much of that adjusting takes place, then the exchange rate becomes a political issue. And that can complicate central banking. Therefore, it is nice to sell reserves as well. The IMF says use [tool] 1 and [tool] 2 and wait very long before you use [tool] 3 [to sell forex reserves]. Then, of course, we hope that the government will use non-monetary measures that are market-friendly: import the things you do not produce very well – sugar, for one, and meat because we were hit by Swine flu. We are confident that that is going to happen. 5/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches We are hoping that a combination of these four medicines will help us achieve a targetconsistent path of inflation, hopefully with the least amount of output loss. Another option is we increase the size of our borrowings from you, which will actually reduce liquidity. When you look at the BSP, we have the policy rate and what we call the weighted average of our CB bills. If you look at the average of our TDF and the CB bills, the gap between these and the policy rate has widened. That is a more subtle part of monetary policy. It allows us a little bit more flexibility. I will probably cut the discussion on financial inclusion and digital payments because I cannot do justice to these topics without doing 15 more minutes. So I will skip these slides. Concluding Thoughts Let me end by saying that times are indeed very challenging. This is, to say the least, probably the most difficult time I have observed since I joined the Monetary Board. It is not a difficult time for me; the difficult time is when my wife says, "Do not eat this. Do not eat that." That is the problem when you are married to a nutritionist. But I am confident that, with your help, we can navigate through these challenges. As we make our way out of the pandemic, the BSP will continue to rely on the collective efforts of banks in achieving our primary objectives. Rest assured that we at the BSP will continue to foster an enabling environment for the financial institutions under our supervision. This year and beyond, I trust the BAP will continue to be a reliable and excellent partner in nation-building and the more difficult task of rebuilding. Beyond the numbers and business targets, I hope we can count on your support to bring more Filipinos into the fold of the formal financial institution and help them move up in life. By casting a wider net, more Filipinos will be able to leverage the benefits of financial products and services. In turn, more Filipinos will be able to contribute to economic growth. Maraming salamat na inimbita niyo kami dito. 6/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Opening message by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the S&P Annual Review, Manila, 30 August 2022.
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Felipe M Medalla: Opening Message for S&P Annual Review Opening message by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the S&P Annual Review, Manila, 30 August 2022. *** First of all, I'd like to thank the members of S&P for coming over here. Let me explain our actions in the central bank and our overall conduct of monetary policy. I have been a member of the Monetary Board since 2011 – first appointed by President Aquino, reappointed by President Duterte, and more recently, appointed by President Marcos to be Governor. I guess I represent continuity. We're often asked what the central bank does and whether it grapples with the classic tradeoff between growth and inflation. Before I tell you that, let me share that the Taylor rule is part of our analytical tool kit. For those who are not familiar, it's a very simple equation where the adjustment in the policy rate [is examined against] some weighted sum between the deviation of actual inflation to target and deviation of output growth from natural growth rate capacity. In other words, high inflation means higher policy rate; low output means lower policy rate. I cannot remember a day in any Monetary Board meeting where we haven't used the Taylor Rule. In other words, we're a lot more focused on inflation than, let's say, the Fed. There's a very simple reason for that: as a small, open economy, a lot of our inflation actually has little to do with the tightness of labor markets. The other reason [why we're focused on inflation] is that the inflation that we fail to fight now will be the inflation that we will fight tomorrow. It's not a good idea to wait till tomorrow. Procrastination is the worst formula you can ever have because postponing fighting inflation is like postponing fighting a disease. When it gets stronger, you will need stronger medicine. If you take a little bit longer than a year, there's very little conflict between stable prices and economic growth. Indeed, if you wait too long, inflation is so high your output loss would be greater later on. It's really a tradeoff between fighting it now, when the output loss is smaller, and fighting it later, when the output loss could already be bigger. This is especially the case when postponing tightening means lost credibility. To [re]gain credibility, you have to show action later, and that will cost you dearly, as we're beginning to see in the US. They [the Fed] have to be more aggressive now. That is essentially the way the BSP had behaved even before I joined. However, when the pandemic came, we became "unconventional": we cut the policy rate to 2 percent. For a central bank whose target is 2-4 percent, that really means if you hit the midpoint of the target, that is a -1 percent policy rate. In addition, markets were panicking, fleeing to cash, and people were selling bonds. In an area where secondary markets were not as developed as the United States, and you were seeing higher bond prices as people were fleeing to cash, we knew that was a wrong behavior of the market because the pandemic is supposed to reduce capex. On 1/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches the other hand, it will make people want to save more. The correct direction of interest rates was to fall from a fundamental standpoint, but it was actually rising. Which was why we started buying bonds in the secondary markets. That, together with the special assistance we gave to the government, P600 billion [in provisional advances], was a P1.6 trillion increase in our balance sheet. It was around P4.5 trillion [in total]. But from the very beginning, we had an exit plan. From our [initial] plan, as we recovered from the pandemic, we would gradually raise interest rates back to the normal levels. But, as they say, "The plans of mice and men often go awry." In this case, it was what happened in the US: US monetary policy becoming so aggressive and, of course, the very large increase in our import prices. Our own calculation showed that only one-third of the increase in our current account deficit was due to economic growth; the remaining two-thirds was due to high oil and non-oil prices. Therefore, it was very clear that we had to exit sooner and faster than planned. Initially, we were making a gradual exit: 25 [bps in May], 25 [bps in June]. Then, we saw inflation was getting worse; we raised the policy rate by 75 bps in a [July] meeting that was not scheduled. And then in the following regular meeting, we raised by another 50 bps [in August]. Of course, how exactly we will raise the rates in the coming three meetings for the year is anybody's guess. Like it or not, what the US does will be the main driver because our inflation is lower than the US, but we cannot afford to have such a small interest rate differential between the peso debt and dollar debt. If the differential is zero, nobody would like the peso. That's the way the global architecture of finance goes. The other reason is we allowed the depreciation of the peso because we saw it working as the market intended. If the prices of imports are rising, then the market should signal that maybe we should buy fewer imported goods. However, but if, in addition to relative scarcity, you have the Fed jacking up rates, you can get to the point where the depreciating peso, caused by the Fed actions, could disanchor inflationary expectations. The last thing we wanted was that people's expectations about inflation would be driven by what's going on in the exchange rate than what we announced as our [inflation] targets. That is essentially how I would describe monetary policy. Wherever we're going in the next three meetings will be very data-dependent. The question, of course, that we ask ourselves is, have we killed growth? Looking at the market, we are quite confident that what we call the nascent recovery is still there. Maybe it's now hard[er] to think of [achieving] it. Personally, I think it's hard to think of 7.5 percent, but I think the lower end of the targets, as mentioned in the DBCC, is quite doable, The other thing that we see is that the quality of employment is rising. What happened was the wage and salaried employment were the most affected by the pandemic. In an 2/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches economy with a very little safety net from the government [for unemployment], the most common way to help yourself is self-employment. We're beginning to see wage employment recovering. The other advantage of the Philippines is that we notice it's fairly easy for monetary policy to stimulate demand. I guess that has to do with a rather optimistic population, and a young one at that. The other thing that causes me to be optimistic is that the policy rate is still below its prepandemic level. There is still some room to rise. Nevertheless, we do admit that there may be some loss in output in the near-term. But if we take a longer view, there is very little loss of output. If you postpone fighting inflation, you're going to lose output sooner or later. Better to lose it now when inflation is still relatively easy [to control]. Our own forecast is that this year, average inflation will be way above our 2-4 percent target. Next year, without factoring in the effects of our policy rate, the midpoint of our forecast for next year is 4 percent. But because of the recent actions that we have taken, I think it's now below 4 percent, better than a 50/50 bet that we will meet our target. That is the way it looks. Our forecast for 2024 is very, very close to the midpoint of our target. Now, of course, the future is very hard to predict, but if we look at our track record, there are very, very few occasions where we were above our target for more than two years in a row. Equally, there are periods where we were below targets; I remember 2015-2016. We do miss the target every now and then, but a great part of the reason why we miss our targets are global and domestic supply shocks, about which monetary policy is not very effective in the short run. I look forward to a comprehensive and constructive discussion with all of you, especially on the things in the central bank's toolkit. Thank you. 3/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Opening message by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for Moody's Credit Rating Review, Manila, 21 August 2022.
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Felipe M Medalla: Opening message for Moody's Credit Rating Review Opening message by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for Moody's Credit Rating Review, Manila, 21 August 2022. *** Dr. Diokno already described the economy. What I will now explain is why we have raised policy rates by 175 bps. Does the central bank even care about growth? The answer is it does care about growth, but it cares even more about its inflation-targeting mandate. In the long run, it's actually good for the government since you can issue longer-term bonds if everybody believes in the inflation forecast. The overall belief in the Philippines is that inflation targets are missed in the Philippines because of external and supply shocks, for which policy rates are not the most effective tools. So why did we raise rates? The first answer to that question is we would have raised it anyway as part of our normalization. When the economy was recovering, we were very aggressive in making sure that the pandemic did not [cause the economy to] contract more than [what could have been] generated by the lockdowns. We brought down the policy rate to 2 percent. I've been with Monetary Board for 11 years; 3.5 percent is, more or less, the normal policy rate. That's not surprising since the midpoint of our inflation target is 3 percent, so it's only logical that we have a positive, real policy rate. Of course, the pandemic changed everything – we went to a 2 percent policy rate, lent P600 billion to the national government interest-free, and then, we saw markets panicking and fleeing to cash because of the uncertainty. In other words, markets were going in the "wrong" direction. The pandemic is expected to reduce capex and make people want to save more. The "correct" reaction of the market should have been to lower interest rates, but they were fleeing to cash because of the sense of uncertainty, To ease further upward pressure on interest rates, we purchased a trillion pesos of bonds from the secondary market. In relation to our balance sheet of P4.5 trillion, that's quite big. All along, we had an exit plan. It was [supposed] to be a gradual liftoff of rates – probably starting the last three months of the year. [But] we were surprised by developments in the US. We were surprised by the movements in commodity prices due to the Ukraine war. These were not part of our forecast. Thus, our exit came sooner and bigger [than expected]. We started with two 25 bps, an off-cycle 75 bps, and then another 50 bps. If you compare us with Thailand and Indonesia, we are among the central banks in Southeast Asia that was the most aggressive. Why? If you look at it relative to the original exit plan, we would have done at least 100 bps anyway, but [we] could have done it in the last half of the year. 1/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches In reality, the policy rate is still quite supportive of growth. Indeed, this is happening when there are no lockdowns. When you look at Google Mobility indices, you can see [the improvement]. In the BSP, our COVID numbers, we noticed, and this is exactly the same [trend] as the rest of the nation: low hospitalization. Our source of confidence that growth will take place is, first, that people have learned to live with the virus, and second, vaccinations and previous infections make them more resilient. The fact that the virus affects the upper respiratory tract rather than the lower makes it more transmissible but less deadly. In that context, we are quite optimistic that [economic] growth is taking place. Why the surprise [slower-than-expected growth] in Q2 2022? I was personally expecting 8 percent; what happened was much lower. If you look at growth from a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, we're on a slight reduction. The answer has nothing to do with the virus; it has to do with the fact that when people are spending lots more of their money on transportation and electricity, they have less money for other things. That is what the data shows. When you take out essentials from consumption, what remains is non-essential. The growth of non-essentials already expanded to pre-pandemic levels and is now low again compared to pre-pandemic levels. The slower growth is not due to monetary policy; it's due to the fact that between driving less, using less electricity, being less likely to go to restaurants [as people have less to spend after spending for non-discretionary items], the economy would slow down. The slow economy is due to the high cost of imports and, unluckily, the high cost of some local agricultural products, [which] has reduced money for discretionary spending. This, together with the policy rate increases, give us an even more chance of seeing below 4 percent inflation next year. Our policy rates are not in response to the current inflation per se; they are forward-looking because we take very seriously our inflationtargeting mandate. If inflation is high next year, this would not be due to external supply shocks anymore but due to second-order effects. We notice, for instance, that wages are rising and transport fare petitions. There's very little we can do about this. But absent other shocks, we expect inflation to be below 4 percent next year and closer to 3 percent than to 4 thereafter. My point is we did not take away growth [with our tightening]. What we did was create bigger growth opportunities next year and the next. The other way to look at it is: we might have lost a little bit of output this year, but if we had postponed our actions, we would have lost more in the following years because the pressure to raise rates would have been even greater if we had not acted on inflation this year. In Tagalog, mas mabuti ang maaga kaysa magaling. Don't see our moves as being anti-growth. We're actually laying the groundwork for better growth in the coming years. Another point: our banks are in a good position to absorb losses: there's enough provisioning, and capitalization is quite high – much higher than what's required. Not all non-financial corporates are healthy, but that's the very nature of capitalism. In any distribution of firms in any capitalist economy, some will be doing much better or worse 2/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches than average, but on average, [the banks are] quite strong. In my experience with the Monetary Board, never were we told by the government that our policy rate was too high. Never were we told by the government to be gentle to a bank. The independence of the central bank is well understood by authorities, most of all by the current Secretary of Finance. Thank you. 3/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Closing remarks by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the MOA signing with participating retailers for the Coin Deposit Machine Project, Manila, 16 August 2022.
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Felipe M Medalla: MOA signing with participating retailers for the Coin Deposit Machine Project Closing remarks by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the MOA signing with participating retailers for the Coin Deposit Machine Project, Manila, 16 August 2022. *** SM Retail Inc. Controllership and Financial Planning Senior Vice President Jonathan H. Ng, Filinvest Land Inc. Deputy Chief Finance Officer Janeth De los Reyes, and Robinsons Retail Holdings Inc. – Robinsons Supermarket Managing Director Stanley Co.; fellow BSPers, partners, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. The phrase "barya lang po sa umaga" – suggests there's really a shortage of coins. I remember when I was growing up, as a 15-year-old first-year student in a school nearby, I would take the bus from Lipa to La Salle Taft, where my boarding house was nearby. I would wonder about the skill of the conductor. During those times, the buses did not have aisles; they had continuous seats all the way to the side. In other words, one side of the bus is completely closed, and the other side is completely open. The conductor has no change. What he does is he swings from outside the bus, literally like an acrobat, moving from one side to the other, asking everybody where they're going. After having asked that, he punches all the tickets. Alam niya kung ilan ang Lipa, ilan ang Batangas City, ilan ang Malvar. Fantastic memory. And then he will collect all the payments. A lot of people overpay because they don't have exact change. In the end, he will now get all the coins, and somehow, he's able to remember who to give the money back to. So, in other words, to solve the coin problem, you need a very smart bus conductor. We seem to have the same problem now: the problem of recirculating coins. When I look at this project, everyone is benefitting: us [at the BSP], we're going to save a lot of money on the cost of minting. Let me give a small lecture on seigniorage: it's nicer to print P1000 [banknote] because the P6 gives you P1000. If the P1000 earns a little bit of interest, you recover the P6. That's called positive seigniorage. On the other hand, the coins have a small face value, yet the cost of production is so high. So you're helping us solve this problem. But you're also helping the public because there's a sense of fairness. Ayaw ng mga tao ng sukli ay kendi. This is solving problems for everyone. The only question I want to ask myself is, with something as good as this, why did it just come only now? The question is why and the reason is somebody has to think of it. And thank God, enough people thought about it, and now people came together and talked about it, and here we have it! We in the BSP think that [with] our investment in the machines plus the creativity of our partners, everyone will benefit. In other words, partial ideas put together can become full-blown ideas that work. 1/2 BIS - Central bankers' speeches I'm very, very optimistic that after a two-year pilot run, we will be able to deploy these machines, and hopefully, I'm quite confident that the benefits will be realized. The lesson from this is: what other things here in BSP could follow this model? And I'm thinking, what about the fact that we are so "dependent" on the P1000 bill because the ATM is the best way to distribute currency? Banks don't like to put P100 bills in ATMs because it's very expensive, right? Such that the P100 bill tends to just keep circulating [in the informal economy] even if it's no longer fit. So, another version of this [model]: maybe we will have fitter notes that would use the very principle we used here [in the coin deposit project] and find the very same partners we have here. When we think this way and work together this way, we, together, can do a lot of things. Thank you very much, and good afternoon. 2/2 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the BSP Young Professionals Program (YPP) Batch 1 Graduation, Manila, 15 August 2022.
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Felipe M Medalla: Speech for BSP Young Professionals Program (YPP) Batch 1 Graduation Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for the BSP Young Professionals Program (YPP) Batch 1 Graduation, Manila, 15 August 2022. *** Magandang hapon sa inyong lahat. This brings me back to my UP days when I used to enjoy graduation ceremonies. BSP colleagues, guests, ladies, and gentlemen, of course, most importantly, our dear graduates. Let me start by congratulating this pioneering batch of the BSP YPP – or Young Professionals Program – for successfully completing the program. Today, we celebrate and honor you for what you have accomplished – completing what I see is a really hard, rigorous 18 months that most likely forced all of you to immerse yourselves in different areas of central banking and see it from the point of view of various departments in the bank. You were able to successfully complete two projects, I was told, with your sponsoring departments, which I am sure will contribute to our processes, systems, and knowledge base here in the BSP. So the next question is: what now or now what? Dear graduates, it's time for you to build your own career not just as central bankers but as public servants in the truest sense of the word. You'll be lucky to be in an institution that, in our view, serves the people because of the importance of its three pillars. As you help BSP achieve them and improve the performance of the economy through its three pillars, you have also served the country. Of course, there are other ways of serving the country, like being a good brother to your younger siblings or, just like me, being a good husband and father to my children. But there's nothing like working for an institution whose mandates are so clearly defined and whose tools are largely in its own hands. Of course, there are things beyond our control, like any other institution that has to deal with a very complex environment, but it's very clear what the metrics are. If you're a BSPer, you will have a methodology for removing what we call exogenous variables. Which of the nice things that happen are due to us? Which of the nice things that happen is pure luck? But it could also go the other way: which of the bad things that happen are just pure bad luck? And which of the bad things are things that suggest that we should get better? I'm certain that there's more to come - more opportunities to learn and grow, to contribute, and to add value. By the way, do not use NBA metrics. In NBA, you know exactly what the performance of a team is when you're in or out of the game. They call this the plus-minus statistics, 'we without you.' Some players are plus 10; some players are minus 30, meaning every 1/2 BIS - Central bankers' speeches time they're in, the game is losing badly. Even in that particular case, it need not be your fault, meaning you're a young player, and you're used only when the team is losing. Even in that particular case, where pluses and minuses are so easy to compute, how much it is when you're in or out of the game, nothing can really be measured for certain. That's why values, beliefs, vision, and dreams are important because pluses and minuses cannot be your true being. What is it then that [you need] in this journey where measuring your output is so hard? This entire field of economics [is] where you can measure the output of the thing but never measure the output of the members of the team. Sometimes, it could be frustrating; sometimes, it could be exciting because your team did very well, and you knew you contributed. What are these things that you need? Of course, you must have self-discipline. We often confuse this with zest and enthusiasm. Why? Much of the work is not like reading a book, then it turns out to be boring, so you put it down. Or you might join a weight-loss program and then give up, saying, 'I'll make up later,' or enrolling in a new course and backing off midway when your interest wanes. In other words, don't be ningas-kugon. True commitment demands from us the self-discipline to finish what we started and, most of all, to complete it without sacrificing quality. Now, the second quality is perseverance, but I don't have to explain this too much. The fact that you're here. You finished the program. You have this. The third is loyalty. Loyalty does not mean big, heroic actions because sometimes that may be the requirement. We've seen that happen to our employees when despite great disasters, they're able to [keep things running and] prevent the branch from elements disabling [it]. You don't need to be heroic all of the time, sometimes it calls for you to just show up when expected and do the needful: be punctual in your appointments, make time for people, especially the members of your own team, and, of course, keep your word. These acts of loyalty will make you important men and women of honor and important assets of the BSP. Mahal kayo ng BSP. Mahalin niyo ang BSP. The adjective "mahal" has at least two different meanings. Mahal is an adjective for beloved. The other one is pricey or expensive or high value. But they're not contradictory. When you say, dahil mahal niyo ang BSP, binibigay niyo ang lahat mahahalagang bagay para sa kanya. After this, you will go back to your respective offices and do what you have to do, finish the task that you have to finish. But I hope that you will go home with a renewed sense of commitment to finish strong in everything that you do and be committed to doing work that you will be proud of because you always deliver quality work. As they say, "Para sa Pilipino, para sa bayan at ang BSP ay para sa bayan." Before I end, let me thank DG Ed Bobier, YPP Chairperson Lou Sicat, and YPP Vice Chairperson Jayzle Ravelo for putting this excellent program together. Once again, to Batch 1 of the BSP Young Professionals Program, congratulations, and we look forward to many great things from all of you. Maraming Salamat. 2/2 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Remarks by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines (EJAP) 31st Business Journalism Awards, Manila, 10 November 2022.
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Felipe M Medalla: Beyond the numbers - the press as a reliable partner in economic development Remarks by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines (EJAP) 31st Business Journalism Awards, Manila, 10 November 2022. *** The Press as a Partner It is my pleasure to speak to you on this important occasion. Today, we honor excellence in economic news reporting and the valuable contributions of business journalists to the nation. I have always said that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) becomes more effective when the nation understands what we do and why we do what we do. And in this regard, you are an important partner. We cannot overlook the value of your work, especially during times like these when our country must sail through stormy seas in order to reach the shores of sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Through your coverage and analysis, you help the people understand and, when possible, appreciate the efforts of government institutions in navigating this very difficult time. There are many different-sometimes polarizing-takes on economic issues that may not necessarily capture the complexity of the challenges that we face, so we appreciate your attempts to promote greater public awareness and foster more meaningful conversations. Beyond demystifying central banking, you help us communicate the impact of our actions and decisions on everyday life. You give the ordinary Filipino the tools to answer daily questions, like, should I have my gas tank filled today? Is it a good time to take out a loan from the bank? How do we allocate our household budget? In this way, your timely delivery of the news empowers the Filipino people to make sound economic choices daily. That said, we are facing more challenges than ever on the economic front. In fact, I have said before that this may be the most difficult time since I joined the Monetary Board more than a decade ago. We are facing very difficult challenges. There is the very aggressive response of the US Fed [US Federal Reserve]. Then, we also have the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which along with domestic supply issues, pushed up the prices of oil and non-oil commodities. This has pushed inflation to the center of mainstream consciousness. Last week, it was reported that October inflation rose to 7.7 percent. But while these challenges are indeed tough, the Philippines will pull through. We have done so in past crises, and we will do it again. 1/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Anchored on Three Pillars Our actions are anchored on what we call our three pillars: price stability, financial stability, and a safe and efficient payments and settlements system-these are the three pillars of central banking. Allow me to provide updates on each. On price stability, as an inflation-targeting central bank, we aim to bring inflation back to the government's target range over the medium term. Based on our latest estimates, we expect inflation to ease from the projected 5.6 percent this year to 4.1 percent next year and further to 3.0 percent in 2024. As you know, next Thursday, we will be holding our policy meeting. I have already communicated that we are prepared to match the US Fed. Since they hiked by another 75 basis points, you can expect that I will be voting to raise the policy rate by a similar magnitude. The reason we do this is to increase the likelihood that headline inflation will be within target by the second half of next year and, hopefully, for the rest of 2024. The BSP's policy rate hikes will also prevent a significant narrowing of the interest rate differential between the US and the Philippines. Keeping a comfortable differential between our policy rate and that of the US lends support to the peso. As you know, the BSP observes a flexible exchange rate policy. As such, we do not target a specific exchange rate nor set a specific line in the sand. Nevertheless, we recognize that significant and persistent depreciation of the peso can dislodge inflation expectations. We, therefore, intervene in the market as needed, consistent with our price stability mandate. In addition, the BSP also exercises flexibility in selling dollars. The Philippines has ample gross international reserves-standing at 94.1 billion US dollars as of the end of October 2022-allowing us to sell dollars and help smoothen foreign exchange market volatility. In summary, the BSP uses three tools to cushion the economy against disruptionsinterest rate adjustment, a flexible exchange rate, and foreign exchange market participation. We use a combination of these tools in a well-calibrated manner to keep the impact of external shocks manageable. Meanwhile, there is a fourth tool, which are non-monetary measures implemented by the National Government to help boost the supply and moderate the prices of key food commodities. The BSP continues to strongly urge the timely implementation of these government interventions to mitigate the impact of persistent supply-side pressures on inflation. Let me now move on to our second mandate, which is financial stability. 2/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Banks continue to be a source of strength for our economy. They have adequate capital buffers, sufficient liquidity, minimal exposure to bad debts, and growing assets, deposits, and loans. A sound regulatory environment-the result of decades of reforms-supports the country's banking system. Against this backdrop, the BSP is onboarding banks in the country's sustainable and financial inclusion agenda. We have put in place regulations that encourage banks to provide financing to green projects and incorporate sustainability principles in their operations. Moving on to the third pillar of central banking-a safe and efficient payments and settlements system. In this space, financial digitalization plays an integral role as it helps facilitate the speed and efficiency of payments. In addition, financial digitalization helps accelerate financial inclusion. If there are more ways to access financial services-microloans, for example-more Filipinos will be able to participate in economic activities, thereby uplifting their economic well-being. The BSP has set twin goals for next year under its Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap: first, at least half of the volume of financial transactions in the country should be done using digital platforms; and second, at least 70.0 percent of Filipino adults should be financially included through a formal transaction account. I am glad to report that we are on track to achieve these twin goals. In 2021, 30.0 percent of financial transactions were done through electronic channels, while 56.0 percent of Filipino adults already had formal transaction accounts. Key Messages In closing, let me leave you with these key messages: First, the BSP is committed to bringing inflation back to within the target range over the medium term. Second, our banking system is solid, stable, and capable of supporting economic growth. Lastly, we are keen on promoting a safe and efficient payments and settlements system through financial digitalization. The BSP remains one with EJAP in promoting a high standard of economic news reporting, which we are celebrating through this event. We are keen to see your professional community achieve more and more success in shaping the minds and perceptions of a new breed of Filipinos-one which makes intelligent financial decisions in their everyday lives. Congratulations in advance to all nominees and winners tonight. 3/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches ### 4/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Remarks by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Actuarial Society of the Philippines (ASP) 63rd Annual Convention, Manila, 10 November 2022.
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Felipe M Medalla: Exploring greater participation from actuaries in the evolving capital markets Remarks by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Actuarial Society of the Philippines (ASP) 63rd Annual Convention, Manila, 10 November 2022. *** Good evening, everyone, and thank you for inviting me to be your speaker at your 63rd Annual Convention. Again, going back to comparing economists with actuaries, you are on a little bit more solid [ground than economists] because, at least, you can use the law of large numbers, whereas us, economists, ask questions, like: what is the chance that this country will default on its debt? Clearly, you do not have [to consider] population [as a variable] because which countries look [exactly] like another country, right? And therefore, in that sense, you are on more solid empirical grounds than we are. In other words, we need a lot more assumptions because as much as we want to use facts, they do not exist. Nonetheless, we still have to make decisions. And in that sense, the decisions that you make must depend on the consequences of mistakes and the probability of mistakes. For instance, which is the bigger mistake: having interest rates that are too low that you end up with inflation that is eventually very hard to control or having interest rates that are too high, which [then] makes the economy grow a little bit slower? Clearly, those trade-offs are hard to make [for economists] because, to begin with, they do not clearly know the probability of being wrong. Economists [could only] have a gut feel of what it is. And whatever models that economists use, these will produce numbers, but they would nowhere be like the numbers you [actuaries] use in your own job. For instance, you are looking at life expectancy, the probability of getting sick, and so on. At least, you [actuaries] have a more solid basis for estimating those probabilities, whereas we, economists, are just guessing. And then, when we are right, it is obvious. There is a story that goes: a man was on a hot air balloon, but he got lost. And then, to find out where he was, he lowered the balloon to ask a farmer [on the ground]. He said, "Where am I?" And the farmer below says, "You are in a balloon." And the man in the balloon says, "He must be an economist. He is telling me something right that is totally useless." Looking at how we use numbers is really the point, right? As they say, an accountant is someone who attempts to value the present, right? [They] look at the past. And, hopefully, an actuary is someone who attempts to value the future with all its uncertainties. And, clearly, that is very useful. For instance, in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), we have economists, we have statisticians, econometricians, [and] accountants. They will look at data in a very 1/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches different way. Maybe the BSP needs some more actuaries. Maybe we would do a better job if we had more actuaries, judging by the conversations we were having [earlier] at the table. I would like to tell you, for instance, that our Human Resource Department informs me that there are more than 1,100 positions in the BSP that have to do with data. Of course, they use data differently. And maybe taking your view on many things, maybe we could learn a lot from you [actuaries]. Of course, when you look at the BSP, it has three pillars. The most important pillar, I think, is price stability, which is, right now, very simple to explain: keeping inflation between 2.0–4.0 percent. For this year, we will clearly miss the target. And as we will explain, we will miss the inflation target because the high inflation is due to what we call "supply shocks," which is not our accountability. In other words, if inflation is too high because we [at the central bank] created too much demand, we created too much credit, too much money, then blame it on us. But the [current elevated] inflation is due to shocks that have little to do with demand but have more to do with supply. Clearly, central banks cannot control them. What we are saying is because it is a supply shock, we should take the necessary policies so that the inflation will return to 2.0–4.0 percent. And in our calculation-if we are right-by the second half of next year, inflation will already be between 2.0–4.0 percent. And, hopefully, for the rest of 2024, it will stay the same. Today, I will also turn my attention to our second pillar, financial stability, which defines our role as regulators and supervisors of financial institutions. The best way to summarize this slide is: right now, the banking system is growing. It is more than adequately capitalized. They have enough provisions for credit losses and, therefore, what it says is: we have a strong banking system that will enable the economy to recover quickly as soon as mobility restrictions imposed by COVID are lifted. And it is turning out that with the first three quarters of the year, we are seeing just that. Indeed, the growth rate of the economy this year is, of course, most likely to exceed the bottom of the target of the government, which is 6.5 percent or higher. But there are limits to the banking system. As you know, when you look at the balance sheet of a bank, a big part of the money being lent out is depositors' money and less than 20.0 percent is equity. Now, what is the problem? Well, it looks stable. But just because it is stable, it does not mean it remains that way. So, therefore, a bank-because deposits can be withdrawn anytime-will be reluctant to lend all of it. Indeed, when you look at the balance sheet of the bank, a big part of it will be in liquid marketable securities just in case depositors change their minds and move somewhere else. Banks better have enough money to finance the withdrawals. Then, in addition, it is very hard for a bank to make a loan that is fixed rate or longer than seven years because of the very [short-term] nature of the funding source. 2/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches On the other hand, you [actuaries] work for insurance companies. I was told that 60.0– 70.0 percent of you work for insurance companies, where the savings are really longterm because they are [set aside] for life insurance or for retirement. In this case, you are the natural source; the insurance companies are the natural source of longer-term funds. Now, of course, for some reason, the role of the banks [in the financial system] is disproportionately high. And although we supervise banks rather than insurance companies, we would rather have a capital market where the insurance companies play a bigger role. And I am sure you, actuaries, will play a very big role in that. In short, banks, by their very nature, have a lot more resources than insurance companies, but they also are much more limited in what they can do by the very nature of their funding sources. So, I will cut through some parts of my speech because I am sure that you are in a hurry to be sworn in. I was told you have 400 members. And just like us, as I already said, you must want your decisions to be based on data. So, the question we ask ourselves always in the BSP is: how else can we get it? How else can we extract as much as we can from our data? And, in that sense, you probably have exactly the same concerns that we have. I will just tell you that, okay, we are very confident. Although I am less than a hundred percent sure that, given what we are doing, we can support the nascent economic growth. What have we done? We have raised interest rates. But fortunately, we seem to be right that high interest rates will not kill the economy. And then, we hope that with the interest rate adjustments, inflation will come back to normal by the middle of next year, unless there are new supply shocks, new surprises. And then by 2024, hopefully, we will be back to normal inflation rates again. I heard the speech of the outgoing President. I congratulate you on a job well done. And it seems to me that every society has exactly the same problem, right? Some are happy; some are not happy. But in the end, the society survives and prospers. By the way, my other impression is you seem to be better funded than economists. You have nicer meetings, okay? So, congratulations to all the members, especially the new officers, and it is my great privilege to be able to swear you in. Magandang gabi sa inyong lahat. 3/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Remarks by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 5th BSP Financial Education Stakeholders Expo, Manila, 20 November 2022.
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Felipe M Medalla: Strengthening financial health through financial literacy Remarks by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 5th BSP Financial Education Stakeholders Expo, Manila, 20 November 2022. *** Welcome to the fifth Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Financial Education Stakeholders Expo! Over the next five days, you will go through various learning sessions on financial education, or fin-ed, on our dedicated virtual platform and event app. The sessions are also streaming live via the BSP and PisoLit Facebook communities. 2022 marks the third year that we are conducting the Expo as a virtual event. But I trust that the insights you [will] gain from this Expo are just as enriching as if we were meeting you in person. As the world moves from recovery to resilience, the changes in the format of the Expo also mirror key developments in the financial sector. Navigating Pandemic-Driven Shifts in Consumer Behavior and Financial Literacy The pandemic was a game-changer for financial consumers, with 6 in 10 Filipinos reporting changes in their financial behavior due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is reflected in the BSP's Financial Inclusion Survey, or FIS. The 2021 FIS results show that: In 2021, 37.0 percent of adults started saving more for emergencies and 17.0 percent either started or used online banking and digital payments more frequently. We also saw account ownership, a basic indicator of financial inclusion, almost double. This means that 22 million Filipinos opened a new financial account within the last two years-the highest recorded growth to date of account ownership in the Philippines. E-money account ownership and usage are on the rise. More Filipinos are now investing as well. While these numbers are encouraging, the data tells us that these gains also come with gaps and risks to the financial literacy and financial health of consumers. BSP data shows that while more Filipinos may be owning financial accounts and investing, less Filipinos are saving and availing of insurance compared to 2019. Less adults reported having private insurance, while more reported having outstanding loans. 1/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches These data points are especially alarming, considering the ever-present threat of unforeseen financial shocks, including natural disasters. Vulnerable sectors are also hardest hit not only by health crises and natural disasters but also by financial exclusion and financial illiteracy. With limited income and credit, affected households depleted their savings, defaulted on their debts, and sought government aid. Some households even resorted to taking their children out of school. Some took out "buy now, pay later" loans from unregulated lending companies, often with prohibitive interest rates. The most financially vulnerable sectors also belong to the most financially underserved. Filipino farmers and agricultural workers were the least banked among all types of workers during the pandemic, with 73.0 percent having no financial accounts. Besides the dearth of account ownership, notable gaps in financial knowledge are also reflected in Filipinos' poor performance in financial literacy surveys. When surveyed on basic financial literacy questions, only 2 in 10 Filipinos scored a hundred percent, while 7 in 10 correctly answered at least half of the questions. Only 42.0 percent of adults correctly identified inflation's effect on purchasing power in 2021, lower than 55.0 percent in 2019. The question on simple and compound interest had the lowest correct answers at just 30.0 percent. These results are consistent with the Philippines' showing in similar international financial literacy surveys. The World Bank found that only 25.0 percent of adult Filipinos are knowledgeable on basic financial concepts. In a global study by Standard & Poor's [S&P Global Ratings], the Philippines scored in the bottom 30 of 144 countries surveyed on financial literacy. Financial Health through Financial Education These knowledge gaps show that for many Filipinos, financial health is still a work in progress. The BSP is committed to upholding the financial health of every Filipino as best embodied in this year's Expo theme: "Owning the Future: Rebuilding and Strengthening Financial Health through Financial Literacy." The BSP is actively working with partners in government, namely the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration and the Departments of Agriculture, Trade and Industry, and Social Welfare and Development to develop customized capacity-building financial literacy training programs. 2/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches We partnered with the Civil Service Commission, the Armed Forces of the Philippines, the Bureau of Fire Protection, and the Philippine National Police for fin-ed programs for civil servants and uniformed personnel. We are working with the Department of Education and the Commission on Higher Education to make financial literacy lessons mandatory for K-12 [Kindergarten to Grade 12] and secondary education classes and in training programs for teachers. Through our upcoming partnership with the Technical Education and Skills Development Administration (TESDA), the BSP will develop a Financial Literacy Course, [which will be] a massive open online course offered in the TESDA Online Program. Through this course, we can further expand our reach to over four million technical-vocational education and training learners. The Digital Landscape and the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap The BSP advocates for (i) digital financial services through its policy work and (ii) digital financial literacy through its advocacy work. Under the BSP's Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap, we aim to have half of all retail transactions go digital by 2023 and 7 in 10 Filipinos to own formal transaction accounts. The BSP is on track to reach these targets through its trifecta of financial inclusion, financial education, and consumer protection programs and policies. In cooperation with our partners, the BSP also executes digital literacy campaigns and embeds cyber hygiene lessons in our fin-ed training programs. So, what can you expect in the next five days of the FinEd Expo? This afternoon, we will hear from our government agency partners as they share their fin-ed milestones and programs. On Tuesday afternoon, we will learn about digital payments, QR Ph [National Quick Response Code Standard], and digital banking in our panel discussions. On Wednesday morning, we will also learn about responsible debt management and strategies to get out of debt for Filipinos from all walks of life. This will be followed by a learning session on financial planning and risk management in the afternoon, featuring stories of financial struggles and successes from our surprise guests. Join us on Thursday afternoon as experts discuss investment options, such as government saving programs, retirement accounts, and stocks, as well as the regulators' take on virtual assets and NFTs [non-fungible tokens], among others. Finally, we culminate the Expo on Friday by showcasing examples of innovative financial education initiatives: (i) a financial education talk show for families, (ii) a livelihood program for persons with disabilities, and (iii) an online financial literacy campaign for Filipino adults. 3/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches For our registered participants, come and visit the Learning Resource Center on the Expo app to access and download the BSP's materials on economic and financial education for free. We invite you to visit the Exhibit Hall and fill in your virtual passports for a chance to win exciting prizes. This year, we also added Expo-themed games on the event app for your entertainment in between sessions. There will also be electronic raffle draws for registered participants. In closing, we thank all of our participants and institutional partners who remain committed to the BSP's advocacy of strengthening financial health for every Filipino. What does a post-pandemic financial recovery look like? We no longer have to imagine because we are already creating it. Together, let us create a financial future that is more accessible, rewarding, and sustainable for all Filipinos. Maraming salamat at mabuhay po tayong lahat. 4/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the GCasH Digital Excellence Awards 2022, Manila, 30 November 2022.
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Felipe M Medalla: Digital payments transformation - the key to financial inclusion Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the GCasH Digital Excellence Awards 2022, Manila, 30 November 2022. *** Mr. Ernest Cu, President and CEO of Globe Telecom; Ms. Martha Sazon, President and CEO of Mynt-Globe Fintech Innovations; colleagues from government; and partners in digital transformation, good afternoon. Thank you for inviting me to the GCash Digital Excellence Awards 2022 where we recognize government units and agencies that have successfully harnessed digital technologies to ensure the safe and efficient delivery of public services. It is unfortunate that I cannot join you in person but know that I share in your joy and celebration for tonight's event. After all, this is very close to our heart and the work that we do at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). Not only do we believe that digitalization will increase efficiency and improve governance, but we also see it as a way to expand financial inclusion. In fact, promoting inclusive digital finance is the first objective under the National Strategy for Financial Inclusion 2022 - 2028. We have come a long way in our digital finance transformation journey. We began with the test-and-learn approach in the early 2000s. Back then, the financial system was dominated by banks. But GCash, along with other service providers, offered an alternative domestic money transfer scheme in the form of e-money [electronic-money]. In 2015, the BSP launched the National Retail Payment System Framework, which gave birth to what we now know as PESONet and InstaPay. In 2020, we launched the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap 2020–2023, which sets out our two goals: First is to digitalize at least half of the volume of retail payments; and Second is to onboard at least 70.0 percent of Filipino adults to the formal financial system. I am pleased to report that we are on track to achieve - or even possibly exceed - these twin goals. As of end-2021, 30.3 percent of total retail payments were already digital. 1/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Driving digital payments growth in recent years were (i) payments by persons to merchants; (ii) fund transfers between two persons; and (iii) salary and wage payments by businesses. This rise in digital retail payments mirrors the broadening of financial inclusion. Along with the growth in digital payments came the increase in account ownership among Filipinos, up to 56.0 percent as of the end of 2021. E-money accounts are now the most widely owned type of account, with users growing more than four-fold in just two years. The number of basic deposit accounts, or BDAs, has also increased alongside e-money accounts. The BSP continues to spearhead digitalization initiatives that serve as financial lifelines to MSMEs [micro, small, and medium enterprises] and the microfinance sector. We want to ensure that every microentrepreneur has the means to flourish in the new digital economy. Through Paleng-QR Ph, a joint initiative of the BSP and the Department of the Interior and Local Government, customers can transact through digital payments in some of the most common transaction points for Filipinos - community markets and local transport. Just last week, we launched the Paleng-QR Ph Program in Davao City. Following the City of Baguio, Davao City is the latest LGU [local government unit] added to the growing list of cities and municipalities that will adopt QR Ph in their communities. This week, we successfully launched the interoperable Bills Pay PH facility. This digital payment stream, which runs on InstaPay, allows a consumer to settle bills using his or her own transaction account even if the account of the biller is with a different service provider. In addition, the BSP is set to launch the Request to Pay and Direct Debit facilities soon. On cross-border payments, our vision is to make it possible for payments within ASEAN using only our mobile phones. We see tremendous benefits from smooth cross-border payments, especially for overseas Filipinos and their dependents. The BSP is working toward linking InstaPay with the fast payment systems of our ASEAN neighbors, such as Singapore's PayNow and Malaysia's DuitNow. At the sidelines of the G20 Summit last month, the BSP signed a deal with its counterparts from Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand to deepen cooperation on payment connectivity. 2/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches To complement these country-to-country arrangements, the Philippines recently signified interest to join Project Nexus, an initiative by the Bank for International Settlements Innovation Hub that seeks to develop a multilateral solution connecting the real-time payment systems of participating countries. As we actively work toward digitalization, we also recognize the accompanying risks. According to the latest Banking Sector Outlook Survey, banks consider cybersecurity risk as one of the top threats on their digital agenda. As a regulator, we are working toward managing and reducing these risks through tough and responsive regulations. The BSP is crafting cybersecurity policies that will require banks and other financial institutions under our supervision to adopt even more robust technology risk management systems and effective cybersecurity resilience controls and measures. The BSP recognizes that improved legislation will allow it to better address cybersecurity risks and combat cybercrimes. We continue to support the passage of various legislative reforms that will put more teeth into the country's fight against cybercrimes and increase confidence in the digital financial system. As we turn the spotlight on the awardees, let us take to heart the importance of cooperation between the public and private sectors in fostering an enabling environment for the safe and efficient delivery of digital financial services. Congratulations to the awardees, and may you continue to blaze the digital trail for others to follow. Mabuhay po kayong lahat! 3/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the launch of the Sustainable Central Banking Strategy, Manila, 21 December 2022.
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Felipe M Medalla: Painting the central bank of the Philippines green Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the launch of the Sustainable Central Banking Strategy, Manila, 21 December 2022. *** Doctor Ulrich Volz of School of Oriental and African Studies University of London; Department of Environment and Natural Resources Licenses, Patents, and Deeds Division Chief Alvin Joseph Constantino; Asian Development Bank Southeast Asia Department Officer-In-Charge Winfried Wicklein; of course, our friends from the banking sector-I see Bankers' Association of the Philippines (BAP) President Tony Moncupa there; my dear colleagues in the Monetary Board and our Deputy Governors and Assistant Governors - my partners in doing what Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has to do for the country - and of course, all of the guests, allies in sustainable finance, good afternoon. Why climate change matters to the Philippines – and the BSP I will start by answering some of the challenging questions that people ask me on climate change: "Why are we even concerned about climate change?" We [the Philippines] are a victim. We are very small in terms of [global greenhouse gas] emissions, and we are late in contributing to emissions. Sabi nga eh, "Small na, late pa, pero kasama [sa apektado]." Now, of course, my answer always has been that: we will be affected. Indeed, all those estimates of vulnerability and damage, we are usually in the orange to the red color in the heat maps. For instance, climate change could very obviously affect food supply. As we know from our own history of inflation, this could lead to large supply shocks, supply-driven inflation. SoV we have to know how to prevent what economists call, "second-order effects"; how supply-shock inflation can become more permanent inflation depending on what the central bank does. The other point is that, clearly, it [climate change] will affect how we regulate banks because, obviously and as [BAP's] Tony [Moncupa] would attest to, capitalization requirements should be commensurate to the risks. The more risky you[r activities] are, the more capital you have to put up. And, clearly, climate change will add to the risks. So, in other words, even just from the point of view of our standard regulatory approach, we have to make some modifications on how we define credit risk, default risk, and all the financial risks that regulated entities face. So, clearly, the regulatory side has to make more adjustments. Climate change – change for the better? 1/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Now, the other one, of course, is-in many ways-things that reduce our contribution to greenhouse gases could also improve our lives. For instance, the shift to electric tricycles, it is good for us. My sister lives in UP village, and she complains that the tricycles wake her up. I am glad that we are already out of the noisier, two-stroke [engine] motorcycles, which also pollute more. So, clearly, many of our responses to climate change are also good for us. Of course, they would say, "Well, it is going to be more expensive." But, maybe, that is a short-run point of view. The more we do these things, the greater the scale of the innovations that will happen, and, maybe, the greater the efficiencies. Indeed, I remember the times when, the financial incentives needed for wind and solar [energy] were just extremely high. Now, the technologies have improved to the point where it is getting quite competitive [with non-renewable energy sources]. However, [using] renewable energy is not without problems. For instance, there are issues meeting peak demand for power. With renewables, power may be available when you do not need it and unavailable when the need arises. Obviously, if our ability to store power improves-which it will over time-the sustainable ways of doing these things may actually, in the long run, become the better ways of doing things. In the morning, I try to run as much as I can. What if it is just easier to do more walking to get to where you work? So, you would actually save a lot of time, right? In other words, if you will take a longer and wider view, the things that are consistent with a better planet are also good for everyday life. Navigating the ensuing policy issues Of course, [addressing] the policy questions are harder. We already know that one of the policy questions is [how we refine our] regulatory frameworks for assessing riskiness of banks and, therefore, the capitalization requirements will be affected. But harder is the question of how will we restructure finance so that finance will be a greater enabler of the more sustainable ways of doing things? Of course, determining which activity really is green or not is already a hard one. Ensuring that countries use a common taxonomy for what qualifies as a "green activity" is a challenge in its own right. Add to that, some small firms do not necessarily have the manpower and the ability to absorb the overhead costs. Of course, I think, those problems can always be solved. Like, maybe, there are direct ways of estimating for medium and small-scale industries without resorting to very, very complex methods. I am quite confident that, over time, all of those things will improve. I think-both from a symbolic standpoint and from a basic standpoint-we are doing what we have to do. Rallying behind a joint cause for our shared future 2/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches And that is why it is very important to work together. This is why it is good to have a forum such as this. We are in this together, we will be working together, and we must take a long-term view: the long-term view is that the sustainable way is also, in the long run, the more efficient way. There will be an audio-visual presentation that will discuss the points I did not discuss in this speech. To champion sustainable finance: we are an enabler. We are a mobilizer. We are a doer. And we are proud to be so. In closing, climate action is a whole-of-society undertaking. The central bank-the BSPcould only do so much, but it will do what it can do. But because we can only do so much, that is why we call on everyone's support to help implement the Sustainable Central Banking program and, of course, the rest of society outside central banking must contribute as well. Clearly, what the national government does will dwarf anything that the central bank can do. So, in this regard, I am so glad that you are all here. Maraming salamat at magandang hapon sa inyong lahat! 3/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the release of the 2022 Financial Stability Report, Manila, 9 January 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Creating a resilient financial system amid interconnected risks - balancing growth and inflation while minimizing disruptions Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the release of the 2022 Financial Stability Report, Manila, 9 January 2023. *** Good afternoon, everyone, especially all my colleagues in government. And it is still not too late to say, "Happy new year!" As we release the 2022 Financial Stability Report, I am pleased to note that the economy has demonstrated its resilience despite a year of challenges and global turmoil. Over the past few months, we have returned to some form of normalcy. Of course, the "new normal" is quite different from the "old normal," but it is still normal: businesses are opening; the malls are full again that parking has become a challenge; students are trooping back to schools; consumers are spending more; and tourist arrivals are increasing. What we have today, some of it is called "pent-up demand" or "revenge spending." The people who did not buy cars because they were not needed during the lockdowns are now, of course, catching up. But while we cherish all these positive strides, we cannot overlook the challenges to the global market and, of course, geopolitics. Indeed, if you listen to the most pessimistic people, they are thinking, "What if something happens to Iran? What if North Korea becomes a problem again? What if globalization, as we know it, is completely gone?" We have terms like reshoring and friend-shoring. Where you locate is now also affected by geopolitics. Moreover, inflation remains a problem worldwide. In our case, as the joke goes, "Sibuyas could now serve as your earrings." As the authorities respond with higher policy rates, which are necessary to control second-order effects, what we in the central bank want is that the supply-side effects do not generate inflationary expectations that make inflation keep rising-even after the supply shocks have gone. There are risks to the real economy, which, thankfully, we [the economy] were able to absorb, and we do believe we will be able to absorb this [impact of the BSP's rate hikes] as well. But these spillover effects are critical-just as we are worried about any spillback risks from financial markets into the real economy. By the way, one of the questions we will always ask is: Are the things we do to stabilize the economy eventually planting the seeds for the next crisis? For instance, we stabilize the exchange rate, so people will now say, "Baka naman safe nang manghiram sa dolyar kahit ang kita [profit] mo ay peso." Every time the economy weakens, we [in the central bank] come in and try to save it. [So, people start thinking,] "Ah! Wala palang risk because, after all, the central bank will save the economy." 1/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches You could see that happen in the United States. What caused the Global Financial Crisis? Too much liquidity that chased assets. So, inflation was not a problem; asset prices were the problem. What was the solution? Even more money. So, it is like an alcoholic. "What is your problem?" "I am drinking too much." "Okay. To stabilize you, in the meantime, I will give you alcohol so you can function." The problem is when you do that, then people would say, "Central banks and other regulators will save us." And, therefore, to use the favorite words of [Senior Assistant Governor] Noe [Ravalo], "The seed of instability is stability." Without knowing it, as we try to do good things, we created expectations that certain prices never go down. And, as long as prices never go down, default is low because all you have to do is sell the assets that you have. What will happen? Default rates are low until they are high. There is no gradual increase, just a sudden one. By the time you know it, it is too late. This is what we want to prevent. Of course, I would like to thank the OSRM [Office of Systemic Risk Management] for all the efforts, notwithstanding the manpower problems. And it is quite important that new methods of [systemic risk] analysis come up, like "What is too big to fail?" Of course, the simple answer is, you can be too interconnected to fail. For instance, Meralco is too big to fail kasi brownout tayong lahat. Anong solusyon doon? The government will take over. But that will create more problems than it solves. Therefore, all these things-counting minuses and pluses and adding them and making many problems disappear ... just because, right now, there is no problem. And if these are not challenging enough, we heed the reminder of Hyman Minsky who argued that "It is in periods of stability that we sow seeds of instability." What I just described earlier-good times, which we regulators cannot let go of so easily. In fact, when the good times are turning bad, we do our best to prolong it even longer. It can lull us into a wrong sense of complacency. This is the answer to the question I posed earlier: We work on systemic risks, report our analysis-thank God for our staff and for our colleagues-and engage the public because we avoid the expected shocks and better manage when the unexpected ones happen. This is a point of resilience. For instance, we in the central bank know that the policy rate affects [market] interest [rates]. But it does not affect the foreign borrowing costs of conglomerates from abroad. In a sense, the conglomerates live in a financial sector that is quite different from the financial sector that we all live in. The government is the same thing. This explains why the T-Bill [Treasury-Bill] rate is lower than the policy rate. So, these are all the things we are asking. The extent to which these things that look like solutions to any problem that we do not like, eventually, unintentionally become the root of instability. So, our benchmark is not whether the risks do materialize but rather how prepared we are for them. 2/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches It could be that none of them [risks] ever happen. But that does not mean we should do it. My analogy is always the typical fire extinguisher. It looks like a waste of money [because] it has never been used. But, clearly, it is a bad idea not to have them. In closing, let me invite everyone to download your copy of the 2022 Financial Stability Report. Tell us what you think, and we are more than happy to engage. In this way, we can manage the risks ahead and shape present and future outcomes-together. Thank you very much at magandang hapon sa inyong lahat. 3/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 4th Regional Macroeconomic Conference Series, Manila, 9 January 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: South Luzon in focus - why the regional matters in the national Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 4th Regional Macroeconomic Conference Series, South Luzon, 9 January 2023. *** Partners from the banking community and business community, colleagues, friends in the media, ladies, and gentlemen, magandang araw po sa inyong lahat. I am pleased to welcome everyone to the Regional Macroeconomic Conference Series (RMCS) for South Luzon. This marks our fourth RMCS, building on the conference series in Central Visayas, Davao and SOCCKSARGEN, and most recently, North and Central Luzon. When I was a Monetary Board member, I made it a point to attend many of these RMCS to gain a better understanding of regional developments. Today's presentations will discuss recent economic and general banking system developments, with a special focus on South Luzon. I understand that these are your top concerns based on the survey we ran last November. While the central bank is among the more credible institutions when it comes to taking a macroeconomic view-focusing on aggregated data like GDP [gross domestic product], price index, and capital formation at the national level-one must never forget to look at regional-level data. For instance, the issue of elevated food prices is actually more pronounced in some regions than in others. Moreover, developments at the regional level also inform the way we carry out our first and second pillars-price stability and financial stability. It would be remiss for the central bank to overlook such nuances and differences across regions to inform its policies. Your inputs will help guide the BSP's policymaking since you have first-hand knowledge and experience of what is happening on the ground. This synergy that we seek to reinforce is the essence of RMCS. Numbers can only tell us so much. You in the regions help provide the context behind these figures. Your stories complete the picture. That said, I hope that today's sessions will equip us with the right tools to make better decisions and more targeted actions for the benefit of all Filipinos. Maraming salamat at mabuhay po tayong lahat! [Thank you very much] 1/1 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the launch of the USAID's Strengthening Private Enterprise for the Digital Economy (SPEED), Manila, 10 January 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Full speed ahead for payments digitalization Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the launch of the USAID's Strengthening Private Enterprise for the Digital Economy (SPEED), 10 January 2023. *** I am a former professor of Economics, so I have to clarify a few things. [While micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) account for more than] 98 percent of numbers [of all enterprises in the Philippines, they have a] much smaller percentage of value. On the other hand, the top five banks account for, maybe, 60 percent of [system-wide] assets. And that is the way the economy goes. But nonetheless, every small transaction counts. Let me cite another example. The person taking care of our kids eventually got married, then, because of the pandemic, their family had [financial] problems. We were able to transfer money to her because of e-payments [electronic payments]. All those aggregate statistics do not matter to me relative to that particular person that I care about, who helped us bring up our children. So, let us not be too focused on the value of assets and numbers over people. Again, I would like to thank USAID [United States Agency for International Development]. You have a long history of cooperation with the BSP. Of course, my partners in government, I will not mention each one-but if I must single out, your excellency, Ambassador MaryKay Carlson. Our colleagues from the government and all our partners in the private sector, we have enjoyed, as I said, a very fruitful partnership with USAID for quite some time now. The accomplishments [from our collaboration] are so easy to see: InstaPay, our fast payment system, and-of course-what is now a very efficient substitute for all checks, PESONet. When you look at all the transactions taking place over those networks and all the other things that they facilitated, we have to celebrate. But of course, obviously, we can do a lot more and, clearly, Project SPEED [Strengthening Private Enterprise for the Digital Economy]-by the way, we in this country are very good at acronyms. For its part, the BSP has introduced several initiatives to facilitate SMEs' adoption of digital payments and financial services. For instance, our QR-Ph system; QR P2M facility, which allows person-to-merchant payments; and, of course, our Paleng-QR Ph Plus, where payments to market vendors, bicycle drivers, and jeepney drivers could now be done through your cellphone. Now, of course, nothing is more frustrating than when your bank does not include one of your credit cards or one of your billers is not on its list of payees. Now that is being answered, as well, with all the other innovations that are happening because of this. Of course, my colleague from UP [University of the Philippines], [Department of Trade and Industry Secretary] Fred [Pascual], talks about all the other things that could happen because of this [digitalization of SMEs], including lending that is not collateral based. 1/2 BIS - Central bankers' speeches These are the things we all enjoy, and we look forward to even more. And that is why the success of SPEED has the potential to promote a more inclusive digital economy toward, as we learn from the pandemic, a more resilient Philippine economy that promotes a higher quality of life for many, if not most, Filipinos. As I said, numbers, not just the size of assets, count. So, let us all go aboard and hop on to this full-speed-ahead vehicle called SPEED. Thank you, and we look forward to many great things from Project SPEED. 2/2 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 23rd Weekly Membership Meeting of the Rotary Club Manila, Manila, 11 January 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Full speed ahead for payments digitalization Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the launch of the USAID's Strengthening Private Enterprise for the Digital Economy (SPEED), 10 January 2023. *** I am a former professor of Economics, so I have to clarify a few things. [While micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) account for more than] 98 percent of numbers [of all enterprises in the Philippines, they have a] much smaller percentage of value. On the other hand, the top five banks account for, maybe, 60 percent of [system-wide] assets. And that is the way the economy goes. But nonetheless, every small transaction counts. Let me cite another example. The person taking care of our kids eventually got married, then, because of the pandemic, their family had [financial] problems. We were able to transfer money to her because of e-payments [electronic payments]. All those aggregate statistics do not matter to me relative to that particular person that I care about, who helped us bring up our children. So, let us not be too focused on the value of assets and numbers over people. Again, I would like to thank USAID [United States Agency for International Development]. You have a long history of cooperation with the BSP. Of course, my partners in government, I will not mention each one-but if I must single out, your excellency, Ambassador MaryKay Carlson. Our colleagues from the government and all our partners in the private sector, we have enjoyed, as I said, a very fruitful partnership with USAID for quite some time now. The accomplishments [from our collaboration] are so easy to see: InstaPay, our fast payment system, and-of course-what is now a very efficient substitute for all checks, PESONet. When you look at all the transactions taking place over those networks and all the other things that they facilitated, we have to celebrate. But of course, obviously, we can do a lot more and, clearly, Project SPEED [Strengthening Private Enterprise for the Digital Economy]-by the way, we in this country are very good at acronyms. For its part, the BSP has introduced several initiatives to facilitate SMEs' adoption of digital payments and financial services. For instance, our QR-Ph system; QR P2M facility, which allows person-to-merchant payments; and, of course, our Paleng-QR Ph Plus, where payments to market vendors, bicycle drivers, and jeepney drivers could now be done through your cellphone. Now, of course, nothing is more frustrating than when your bank does not include one of your credit cards or one of your billers is not on its list of payees. Now that is being answered, as well, with all the other innovations that are happening because of this. Of course, my colleague from UP [University of the Philippines], [Department of Trade and Industry Secretary] Fred [Pascual], talks about all the other things that could happen because of this [digitalization of SMEs], including lending that is not collateral based. 1/2 BIS - Central bankers' speeches These are the things we all enjoy, and we look forward to even more. And that is why the success of SPEED has the potential to promote a more inclusive digital economy toward, as we learn from the pandemic, a more resilient Philippine economy that promotes a higher quality of life for many, if not most, Filipinos. As I said, numbers, not just the size of assets, count. So, let us all go aboard and hop on to this full-speed-ahead vehicle called SPEED. Thank you, and we look forward to many great things from Project SPEED. 2/2 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Economic Briefing, Frankfurt am Main, 22 January 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Safeguarding price stability amid challenging times Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Economic Briefing, Frankfurt am Main, 22 January 2023. *** Good morning to all of you, in our own language, magandang umaga. Thank you for inviting us, in our own language, salamat. I will keep this to five minutes. The Philippine central bank is an independent central bank, and the independence of the central bank is actually [enshrined] in the 1987 Constitution. The government has only one representative on the Monetary Board and, right now, that is the Secretary of Finance. Clear mandate as central monetary authority We [at the central bank] have very well-defined mandates. We call it the three pillarsprice stability; financial stability; and a safe, secure, and efficient [payments and] settlements system. I cannot say much about the last two [pillars] because of time constraints. But, as already discussed, it is very important for us to modernize the payment system-for more and more [payments become] digital, more and more Filipinos will have accounts. By the way, the telcos [telecommunications companies] contributed a lot more to the increase in the [electronic money] accounts [because] it is a lot harder to be onboarded to banks. So, we are meeting our [digitalization] targets, [both in terms of] the number of people who will have accounts and the percentage of transactions that will be digital. On the other hand, our regulation of banks is very, very straightforward. We make sure that banks that carry more risks will have [set aside] more capital. That policy has been very rewarding because, as the crisis came, our banks remained healthy and up during the pandemic. The banks' lending recovered very strongly. Banks, now, have growing balance sheets, which, at the moment, do not show any form of weakness. Of course, it also helped that some of the current bankers still remember the 1997 [Asian Financial] crisis. The banks themselves are very well-governed, except for some that are already closed, which are mostly smaller ones that are not adequately capitalized. By the way, that [bank closures] was quite unpopular, but we had to do it. Preserving price stability by ensuring supply pressures stay on the supply-side Now, let me go back to price stability. What is clear is that inflation-if you just look at the headline numbers and core inflation-is really much, much higher than normal. By the way, if you look at the short history of the Philippine inflation-targeting central bank, the longest number of consecutive months where we missed our [inflation] target 1/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches on the high side is 15 months. So, what it really means is that supply shocks do not become self-perpetuating inflation. Now, this [current period] is particularly a bad period because of a series of shocks. As shown by the green little bars at the bottom of the page, we were initially expecting to go back to 0.3 percent per month inflation, but that was delayed by two months because of shortages of vegetables and, of course, the big news in the Philippines-the shortage of onions. Our policies are to prevent supply shocks from generating more inflation because [we feared that] inflationary expectations have gotten out of control. And, as you can see, this is one of the reasons why we are quite aggressive [in tightening monetary policy]. If you look at the chart on the right, we will see that private sector forecasts of inflation are much higher than our [BSP's] forecast. So, there is a risk that the supply shock can generate, what we all call, "second-order effects." And that is the reason we have to be quite aggressive, and we are actually more aggressive than all our Asian neighbors. Inflation on a target-consistent future path By the way, we expect inflation to return to normal. Last year's month-on-month [figures] are already quite consistent with it. But we need a series of month-on-month [figures] of 0.3 percent [for year-on-year inflation] to be able to go back to the 2.0 to 4.0 percent inflation target by the late part of the third quarter or the early part of the fourth quarter [of 2023] and for the rest of 2024. Relief from foreign exchange pressures The biggest challenge, of course, was the pivot of the US [Federal Reserve] to tight money, [which] caused a large depreciation of the peso, just like many other currencies. And, actually, there are two stories: What you see here is the summary for 2022, when the peso depreciated by 8.0 percent. But, if you looked at the numbers from October, the depreciation was 13 percent. This [depreciation] was strengthening very high inflation, and the fall in the exchange rate is starting to disanchor inflationary expectations. The fruits of decisive monetary action [Faced with these developments,] we had an increase in the policy rate of 350 basis points (bps). I do not own all the 350 bps; 25 bps of that came from [Finance] Secretary [Benjamin] Diokno when he was still [BSP] Governor. The remaining 325 bps were all mine. So, it [policy rate] is much higher than the neighbors. And, as you can see, what happens, later on, is that depreciation [narrowed]. As the US dollar began to weaken, and as expectations of the Philippine central bank acting [to stem weakness in the peso] had its effect on the market, the peso actually began to appreciate. 2/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Of course, the other thing we did was we sold quite a bit of dollars from our reserves. As you can see, our reserves declined by US$13.7 billion. It [the dollars sold] is about 12.6 percent of our reserves. The only country that has bigger, in relation to reserves [sold as a percentage of their gross international reserves], were India and Thailand. So, the point is: We are very successful in bringing down inflation. We expect it [inflation] to go back [to within target]. It is already target-consistent at this point, but the year-on-year numbers will, of course, take time. [The effects will] most likely [manifest] by the end of the third quarter or the fourth quarter of this year. Thank you very much. 3/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Economic Briefing, London, 25 January 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Re-anchoring and securing inflationary expectations in a challenging environment Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Economic Briefing, London, 25 January 2023. *** Friends of the Philippines; ladies and gentlemen; and our partners in the international banking community, good day. Let me begin by saying that the central bank of the Philippines is an independent central bank. This [independence] is enshrined in the Philippine Constitution and implemented by the passage of a law, creating the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) in 1992. [The BSP], later on, became an inflation-targeting central bank, after New Zealand and Australia. It is independent because once [BSP officials are] appointed, it is hard to remove us. And it is independent because there is only one member of the Cabinet, usually the Secretary of Finance, who is represented in the [Monetary] Board. By and large, I have been on the Monetary Board for nearly 12 years, and there has not been a single case where the government intervened when we close a bank [to maintain financial stability] and, of course, in the area of monetary policy. There are no messages from the President on what he wants the interest rate to be. Three pillars of Philippine central banking Let me now say that we have three very important pillars-price stability, financial stability, and an efficient and safe payments and settlements system. I will go quickly to the two [pillars] because it is very hard to do justice [in the short time I have], but it is easy to describe. Financial stability is [when] the banks are well-capitalized. Our regulation forces the banks to put up more capital when they [their operations] apparently are riskier. Our supervisors determine which banks are risky and taking on more risk than others. We have a very, very stable banking system because of our regulations. On the other hand, the payment system, as already described in the video, is fast becoming very digital. For instance, our goals of 70 percent of adults having their own transaction accounts and 50 percent of transactions being digital are very, very achievable. Of course, the pandemic helped that happen. We have a fast payment system, called InstaPay, and it [InstaPay transaction volumes] is now approaching the same volumes as the ATMs [automated teller machines], meaning people no longer withdraw cash to pay; they just make bank-to-bank transfers. It happens very quickly and, in the case of a fast payment system, almost real-time. In 1/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches addition, we have a system that has replaced physical cheques; it is called PESONet. We also have a strong campaign, [called Paleng-QR PH Plus] where ordinary vendors and jeepney drivers can be paid using a cellphone. Month-on-month data suggest easing inflation pressures Now, I will go to most of the questions that have to do with inflation. Of course, 2022 was a bad year. The average of the year-on-year inflation was 5.8 percent, and the last print was 8.1 percent. In addition, the inflationary expectations of private analysts are unusually higher relative to ours. In other words, there is a risk that inflationary expectations are being disanchored. The good news, of course, is by our own forecast, we should be able to go back to 2.0 to 4.0 percent [inflation] by the end of the third or fourth quarter [of 2023]. By 2024, we will have inflation very close to the midpoint of our target. The reason we say that is that month-on-month inflation-for the first time-is back to normal [for December 2022], which is our target divided by 12 [months]. Of course, one month does not make a forecast, but our own models and our own analyses of data show that this is indeed a trend-unless, of course, new supply shocks happen. The point is much of our inflation is due to supply shocks-unfortunately, some are global, some are domestic-and, as the video showed, these are already being addressed through a more relaxed import policy on the things that became more expensive. Taking stock of monetary actions to tame inflation What actions have we taken to do this [bring inflation back to a target-consistent path]? The answer is: We have been very aggressive [in terms of tightening monetary policy]. So, what have we done? As you can see, initially, the peso was depreciating; it depreciated quite a bit [in 2022]. Indeed, by September to October of last year, the depreciation was around 14 percent. What happened was, partly because of the end of the strong dollar and our own [tightening] policies, it [the peso] has now actually appreciated. What have we done [to achieve this]? The most obvious is we raised policy rates. We are actually the most aggressive country in raising it [compared to our regional peers] -350 basis points (bps) worth, [part of which was from Former] Governor Diokno, who was Governor until he became Secretary of Finance. I have only been Governor for seven months. I have had the pleasure or pain of raising the policy rate by 325 bps. Of the 350 bps, 325 bps of that was mine [occurred under my term], and I have been Governor for only seven months, but it worked. As the growth numbers show, the economy can actually take it [the impact of our rate hikes]. So, the timing [to normalize policy] was right. Maximizing the full force of expanded toolkit 2/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches In addition, if you look at this chart, the Philippines has adjusted policy rates more than anyone, including South Korea, India, and so on. We also intervened in the forex [foreign exchange] markets. My people keep telling me, "Governor, do not use the word 'intervene,' say, 'participate.'" No, we were not just "participating." We were selling [FX reserves] heavily, but that [level of intervention] has ended as well. As you can see, relative to reserves, just like other central banks in Asia, we sold a lot of reserves. The Philippines sold 11.6 percent of its reserves [from end-December 2021 to end-December 2022]. Of course, other countries did even more [dollar sales], like Thailand, India, and Vietnam, and this is actually a pattern with most Asian central banks. Future policy actions to remain data-dependent By and large, I think we probably have a few more adjustments [in the policy rate] depending on what the United States does. At any rate, the point is we have done what we can to re-anchor inflationary expectations, and the remaining ones [future policy adjustments] are whatever is necessary to secure it. Closing messages Let me end with the following points: The BSP stands ready to do whatever is necessary to bring inflation back to our target. The banking system is sound and stable heading into 2023, lending support to domestic growth prospects. And, finally, our push for digitalization is going on very well and, of course, will clearly help not just the economy but most Filipinos. Thank you very much, and good day. 3/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the New Year's Message / First Flag Raising Ceremony for 2023, Manila, 2 January 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Onward and forward - the BSP in 2023 Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the New Year's Message / First Flag Raising Ceremony for 2023, Manila, 2 January 2023. *** My beloved colleagues in the Monetary Board, Deputy Governors, officers and colleagues, magandang umaga po at isang masaganang bagong taon po sa ating lahat! I hope that the past few days offered some form of rest and respite from the year that just ended, as well as clarity and purpose for the year that has just started. To say that we've been through an eventful and challenging year is surely an understatement but I trust that despite all of these, you-my fellow BSPers-were able to easily bounce back, find the time to recharge, recover, and spend time with your loved ones during the holiday season. Over the past few months, the economy has also returned to some form of normalcy. Businesses are opening up; the malls are full again; schools are welcoming students back; and tourists are coming in. Brighter prospects on the horizon? After years of holding off purchases, some consumers are spending more. Pent-up demand, or what is now commonly referred to as "revenge spending" is real and so is the ensuing economic boost. With oil prices on the decline and diminishing pressures on the peso-again, thanks to actions taken by the Monetary Board-Filipinos have more to spend on discretionary items. This year and hopefully beyond, we expect the economy to sustain this strong momentum. That said, we recognize that the global environment is not without risk. The global outlook is dimming, and recession fears are mounting, with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank sounding the alarm as shown by their consistent upward revisions of inflation forecasts and consistent downward revisions of global gross domestic product growth rates. The Fed's actions, of course, will be a key consideration for us. We're also looking at how China contains the virus without its COVID-zero policy, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, shifting supply chains, the world's journey to decarbonization, and mounting geopolitical tensions in different parts of the world. Staying true to BSP's three pillars But while the environment is in flux and constantly changing, we look at our North Star, our three pillars, which remain constant: price stability, financial stability, and an efficient and secure payments and settlements system. Let me go over our plans for this year to ensure that we keep delivering on our three pillars. 1/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches On price stability. Based on our inflation projections, inflation may have already peaked last December. Of course, the [actual] numbers will come out soon. From that point on, we see inflation slowing down in the first half of 2023 and settling between 2.0-4.0%, our target range, by the third quarter of 2023. By the fourth quarter, and hopefully for the rest of 2024, inflation is expected to approach the low end of the target range due to base effects. What does this mean for us? Of course, our monetary settings will continue to be based on and be guided by data. And of course, we are also ready to explain when our forecasts are quite different from what actually happened because we can account for them in our models. By the way, some models do not have this; they use the past [figures] and gut feel on what inflation will be - and it does [it] quite well. The problem with these models is they cannot explain itself when it's wrong unlike our [BSP's] models that have very specific exogenous variables. Aside from investments in better models, we are now leveraging big data and advanced analytics to improve further our forecasting and analytical abilities. [Our] investments in better models, technology, and big data help us ensure that our actions are responsive to the needs of the time and help us as well in our communications. Now, our second pillar: financial stability. We look to the strength of our banks as a barometer of the economy's health. If banks are actively lending to households and businesses, then the economy is in a much stronger position. And as we all know, when banks over-lend, this usually is followed by long periods of slower lending and we hope [that] our regulations, our supervision, prevent that from happening. Fortunately, the Philippine banking system is on much more solid footing than it was back then. Both regulators and the regulated institutions learned lessons from past crises and built their buffers in anticipation of future shocks. So, when we look at all the indicators at this time, you can clearly see all very good things: rising lending and actually declining non-performing loans (NPL). Of course, we also learned from the past that everything looks good until they are not. As a result, as supervisor of the banks, we aim to strengthen our institutional capability. For one, we are exploring the use of machine-learning capabilities and as already discussed, new econometric models. We will also pursue the adoption of Basel III standards on credit and operational risk capital. Of course, we can never ignore the effects of climate change on risks for the very institutions that we supervise. Last month, we launched our 11-point Sustainable Central Banking Strategy which embodies our three-pronged roles as enabler, mobilizer, and doer. Lastly, our third pillar: a safe, efficient, and reliable payments and settlements system. Among our three pillars, this is the hardest to pronounce and very long. This year, we 2/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches are targeting to launch other digital payment streams, such as InstaPay Debit Pull and Request to Pay. We also aim to issue a merchant acquiring and aggregation licensing framework1 and a cooperative oversight framework.2 We have also started the conduct of a pilot wholesale CBDC or central bank digital currency, a major capacity-building activity for both the BSP and the financial industry. By the way, we say, "We will not go into retail CBDC. We will be in wholesale CBDC which, hopefully, will also facilitate cross-border transfers." And of course, the dream is for any ASEAN citizen can use their phone to make payments wherever he is in ASEAN. Aside from our vision of a cash-lite economy, we also recognize the role of cash. Indeed, a big, big puzzle is in spite of all these technological changes, demand for cash - physical cash - keeps growing. Of course, the explanation is rather simple: as people cross from informal employment [into formal or salaried employment], like those employed in farming where kids get fed rather than get wages, as you transform the economy into something more modern, cash is actually gradually being introduced to those parts of the economy. Therefore, we take very seriously our role as the printer of the physical cash, that the bills look good and they are always returned on time so that the unfit bills are replaced as quickly as possible. To preserve currency integrity, we implement the Clean Note and Coin Policy and the Coin Recirculation Program. Of course, for those of you who are with the BSP for a long time, this is the bigger bread and butter for many, many decades, and we will get better and better in this as well. Readying the BSP's operations for the future At this point, let me proceed to other aspects of BSP operations: reserve management, for one. In keeping with our Sustainable Central Banking strategy, we plan to be a signatory to the United Nation Principles for Responsible Investment. We also are looking at developing a Responsible Investment Charter, which will guide the integration of sustainability tests with financial assessments. Although by IMF metrics-the IMF Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA) - our reserves are [assessed as] "high", we do think that given all the things that are often happening, there is no reason to be complacent, to let our reserves go down too sharply. On financial inclusion, which started out as an advocacy to a national strategy and now, a strategic outcome of whoever is the Governor. We have several initiatives in this regard. We have launched the Credit Risk Database Project, which will produce a credit scoring model for small and medium enterprises [with the aim of reducing dependence on collateral]. Of course, it is of great importance; [it helps with] the problem when the people who have collateral are not the only ones who need the loans. 3/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Meanwhile, our Paleng-QR Ph program will be building on the successful launch in Davao and Baguio and replicated in other parts of the country, namely Pasig, Naga, Lapu-Lapu, and Tagbilaran. Now, on financial consumer protection and consumer assistance. Starting this year, we will exercise the authority conferred by the Financial Products and Services Consumer Protection Act or FCPA that was enacted last year and will soon issue the Rules of Procedure for Mediation and Adjudication by January of the current year. We're truly living up to our label as a quasi-judicial authority. Financial education is a key component of consumer protection and we are working with various partners to empower Filipinos with the skills to understand finance. And with our regulations and our guidance, disputes should be quickly resolved and settled. On regional operations. We propose adding more gold buying stations so more gold sellers could access them. We aim to establish these in Butuan, Camarines Norte, General Santos City, and Cagayan de Oro City. We will also further carry out our clean note policy and our coin recirculation program through our coin deposit machine project and we will soon see that these machines will actually be strategically located given our partnership with the private sector in this regard. On the legislative agenda. Our priorities this year are the Bank Deposits Secrecy Bill and the Financial Accounts Regulation Act. We will also continue to support the passage of the Digital Payments Bill. On operational efficiency. We are lining up several systems and initiatives that will help enhance the BSP's operations and serve our stakeholders better. Let me cite a few items: We have the Integrated Financial Management Information System or IFMIS, that will capture, monitor, and report financial information. We also target a more streamlined procurement processes. We also hope to complete the Enterprise HR System, a business solution intended to be a more agile replacement to the current system, the iHRIS (Integrated Human Resource Information System). Hindi ko pa nga alam ibig sabihin ng iHRIS, may bago na! Pero alam ko yung ibig sabihin ng IHRIS, what it refers to but not the individual letters. (I don't even know what the iHRIS acronym stands for and we're already developing a new system! Although I know what iHRIS does and what it represents, I am not familiar with the meaning of the individual letters). By the way, that is the sign of an acronym-based society. On internal audit, the BSP meets the elements to achieve the highest rating of "Generally Conforms." By the way, to accountants like us, those are important: "generally conforms" to accounting principles, especially with International Standards for the Professional Practice of Internal Auditing and the Institute of Internal Auditors 4/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Code of Ethics. But for this year, we shall focus on obtaining an independent validation of this assessment from an external party. And finally, fostering a research culture. I am glad that Monetary Board Member [Eli] Remolona has joined us. He has quite a bit of experience in research. He and [Deputy Governor] Francis [Dakila] and our league of people in research working together will, I hope, produce a BSP Research Academy that holds true to its name. We will also come up with a consolidated book on banking laws of the Philippines-which will be online-with discussions on amendments to the BSP Charter, the National Payment Systems Act, and other banking laws. Last but not the least, we will have a continuing strategic engagement with our stakeholders. The measure of our institutional success lies in how we at the BSP can explain what we do to the public that we serve, in effect truly bringing BSP closer to the people. Onward and forward So, we have lined up a lot of plans for this year and hope that these won't just remain on the drawing board. I am confident with all the talent that we have in this institution that this is the year we kick things off and realize our vision-from our targets under the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap to our sustainability objectives to our plans and process improvements for the organization. 2022 was a good year. Don't you agree? In fact, I will say it was a great year! And with your support, I am confident that 2023 will be much better for the BSP and the country. So, this is a very good example of infinite progression: "I love you more today than yesterday but not as much as tomorrow. It is always increasing, 'no (right) ? Maraming salamat at mabuhay po sa inyong lahat! Mabuhay ang BSP! At mabuhay ang ating mahal na bansang Pilipinas! (Thank you very much, everyone. Long live the BSP! Long live our dear nation, the Philippines!) 1 The licensing framework is expected to support further digitalization of merchant payments which account for over 70% of the total monthly retail payments in the country. 2 The cooperative oversight framework will help prevent regulatory arbitrage resulting from gaps, inefficiencies, duplications, and inconsistencies in the regulations of different supervisory authorities. 5/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the fund Managers Association of the Philippines (FMAP) General Membership Meeting and Induction of Officers, Manila, 20 February 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Supporting the continued growth of the fund management industry Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the fund Managers Association of the Philippines (FMAP) General Membership Meeting and Induction of Officers, Manila, 20 February 2023. *** NOTE: This speech mentioned inflation figures from December 2022. The BSP has since released updated inflation numbers and increased its policy rate by 50 basis points in February 2023. To the outgoing and incoming officers of the Fund Managers Association of the Philippines (FMAP), thank you for inviting me. Events like these give me a good chance to explain what the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) does and why it does them. The Importance of Communicating the Central Bank's Actions and Intentions In my view and our view, as always, the better understood we are and the more predictable we are, the more effective we are [in carrying out our mandates]. There is a saying in standard macroeconomics, "The only reason monetary policy works is [because] it surprises people." And the way it goes is: You [the central bank] increase the money supply when markets are not expecting it. Prices are relatively sticky, and therefore, the increase in money supply increases output. But then, the only way you only did it is by fooling people. [By the] next time you do it, it is not going to work anymore. [What is] worse, even if you are not thinking of doing it, they [the market] think you will do it. Therefore, they put it at a premium. In other words, it works once and costs you a lot later. The BSP is very much aware of this. That is why we want to be as transparent as possible. In fact, if we know where we are going, we will tell you where we are going. But how does one communicate the uncertain? The fact that we are not telling you where we are going is [because] we, ourselves, are not sure where we are going, especially in this environment that is so unpredictable. For instance, who could have predicted just six months before that the Fed [United States Federal Reserve] will do four 75 basis points (bps) [policy rate increases]? In other words, you cannot do forward guidance when your forward guidance may add to the confusion. That is the philosophy we in the BSP are very conscious of, especially when it comes to inflation targeting. By the way, I consider it a good thing that we are not a dual-mandate central bankbecause if a central bank thinks about inflation and economic growth at the same time, 1/7 BIS - Central bankers' speeches usually, the result is the credibility as an inflation-targeting central bank is reduced. The market might say, "It cares so much about growth. It might actually not take all the necessary measures to bring inflation back to target as soon as possible." Setting the Context Now, when you look at the chart, this is what you will see. Of course, inflation is very high. Even if you take out volatile items, it is still high. Not only that, but the rise in core inflation is at least as fast as [the growth in] the headline inflation. Much of these is because of supply shocks. Unfortunately, some of the supply shocks are domestic. You have the famous sibuyas. I was in London, and people were telling me, "Gov., bring home sibuyas. It is one-half of the price in the Philippines." Sugar, I think, [the price of] sugar has increased by almost 100 percent. Then, of course, you have bad weather [that affects agricultural output]. So, there are [domestic] supply shocks where the import response was inadequate or delayed for various reasons-plus the global shocks. Fortunately, the supply shocks of domestic origins have been addressed. Addressing the Demand Side of the Equation At any rate, my point is that we have taken all the necessary policies on the demand side. We have taken all the necessary policies on the exchange rate side. We have taken all the necessary policies on the interest side and are willing to take some more, if necessary. That is why we are confident that unless there are new shocks-something goes wrong in North Korea; something goes wrong in Iran; we do not know unless we have new shocks-we are on our way toward what we call a "target-consistent path of inflation." In simple English, it is not there yet, but it could be there. My own personal forecast, which is also the forecast of our forecasting team, is that headline inflation will be closer to 3.0 percent than 4.0 percent by the fourth quarter of this year. And if we are lucky, it will happen in the last month of the third quarter. Looking to History as an Inflation-targeter By the way, this is our history: The longest consecutive number of months where headline inflation was above target is 17 months.1 Based on our history, when we got hit by three consecutive months of [supply] shocks, it [elevated inflation] will not last longer than three months. But the way the consumer price index (CPI) or inflation is computed, it will end up [being reflected for] 17 months. Consider this illustration: A country with zero percent inflation where the index is always 1.0, year one is always 100. Then, all of a sudden, it gets a single shock, 5.0 percent. So, the index becomes 1.05. Inflation is what? 1.05 divided by 1.0, minus 1.0, equals 2/7 BIS - Central bankers' speeches 5.0 percent. But that will happen 12 months in a row. The next month, it [the CPI] is still 105. So, you have a series of 105 for 12 times. On the 13th month, it is now 105 divided by 105. So, it is back to zero. Nipping Inflation in the Bud In other words, supply shocks, if you do not allow them to propagate or [turn into] inflationary expectations that become self-fulfilling, inflation will die as the shocks die. There will be very little second-order effects. In contrast, if you read the most common textbook about Latin America, inflation ended up having a life of its own. Everybody expects inflation. What happens? The currency depreciates. Prices increase. Wages increase. Inflation begins to have a life of its own. And the only way to restore order is to show to everybody that the central bank is willing to cause a deep recession to cut the [wage-price spiral] cycle. We [the Philippines] will not get there-the point where the central bank, [in order] to restore its credibility, must cause a recession. That is one thing that I can assure you. Of course, I cannot assure you that there will be no more shocks. By the way, I am counting the number of shocks; this one is a bad one. Nagkahalo-halo eh-may sibuyas, sugar, gulay; then, you have the fertilizer shock from the Ukraine-Russia war; and in this case, these shocks, as many as six to seven, are really bad shocks. If you do that using my analogy, it will take more than 17, 18 months before headline inflation returns to normal. And that is [based] on the assumption that the central bank will do whatever is necessary to prevent second-order effects. Pursuing Long-term Agricultural Reforms to Rein in Inflation If we look at this chart, note that the month-on-month [changes in inflation may] look tiny, but they are really significant. By the way, you can see a really tall bar when inflation was over 1.0 percent in one month. If that were to happen 12 months in a row, you would have 12.0 percent [annualized] inflation. We had several really bad months, really bad shocks. We thought that this was the last one. That is why our forecast, initially, was that by the third quarter [of 2023], we will have normal [within-target] inflation. Then, we got two more shocks: the typhoon and then, of course, the famous sibuyas. So, these are some of the reforms that have to happen. And, as an economist, the best reform is to remove the role of licensing-because the lesson [from] rice tariffication is no more licenses. Anybody who wants to import can import. You want to protect? Impose a tariff. Do not have non-tariff barriers because the non-tariff barriers will sooner or later be captured by vested interests. The problem, of course, with agriculture is that you always need phytosanitary permits, because, clearly, you do not want to import pigs that will bring viruses and germs. The most famous of them is the Mediterranean fruit fly, which destroyed a lot of fruits in 3/7 BIS - Central bankers' speeches California. So, clearly, you must have phytosanitary controls [in place], but do not let these phytosanitary controls be a reason for somebody to manipulate and control supply. Economy Remains Strong to Absorb Impact of Rate Hikes At any rate, you see, of course, that in spite of our very aggressive monetary policy, the economy remains strong. The simple reason for that is pent-up demand. All the things you did not do [purchase] because of the restrictions [during the pandemic], you can now do. Maybe, you postponed buying a car by two or three years. Who needs a car when you cannot use it? In the case of my wife, she said, "Let us go back to Boracay. Let us go back to El Nido." It is harder for me now because I am the central bank governor. I have to bring guards wherever I go. I told her to go alone. So, the pent-up demand is clearly working in our favor. Managing Exchange Rate Volatility The other one is that we have managed the exchange rate. This time, we were a lot more concerned with the exchange rate than we usually were. Generally, changes in the exchange rate are healthy. Eh kung short ang foreign exchange rate, eh gusto mong tumaas ang presyo para mag-ingat ang tao sa paggamit ng foreign exchange. Our evidence is under normal times, the translation of a 1.0-peso depreciation to inflation is just 0.076 percentage points [in the short-run].2 Exchange rate changes are healthy until they are not. If they become large, they become the anchor of new inflation expectations, like what happened to Mexico. The Mexican peso depreciates; inflation goes up. Inflation goes up; the peso depreciatesand it becomes a cycle. The Fed [tightening] policy, the strong dollar, and the current account deficit, as you can see in the charts, caused a very large change in the exchange rate, which [then] caused us [at the central bank] to act very, very aggressively. Taking Decisive Monetary Response As you can see in the next chart, we adjusted the policy rate by [a cumulative] 350 bps. The next country to do [raise their policy rate] as much as we did was South Korea; they raised by 300 bps. However, our 350-bps adjustment is a little bit exaggerated because we had an abnormally low policy rate [during the pandemic], 200 bps, which has never been observed. And that is the result of anti-pandemic policy. [We had] ultra-low monetary policy because the economy was really reeling [from the pandemic]. We also had regulatory relief where loans to MSMEs [micro, small, and medium enterprises] qualified as reserves. 4/7 BIS - Central bankers' speeches As the bond markets were panicking, people were going for liquidity. They are going for pesos. They are selling securities to get pesos, not selling securities to get dollars. We [at the central bank] bought 1.0 trillion pesos of government securities. That is still on our balance sheet. Currently, we hold 1.3 trillion pesos of domestic assets and a balance sheet of about 7.5 trillion pesos. It is a good central bank: its assets are in dollars; its liabilities are in pesos. Now, the other thing is we sold FX reserves. And as you can see, [we sold] 11.6 percent of FX reserves [from end-2021 to end-2022]. The biggest seller was Vietnam. India and the Philippines are about the same. So, we are using three tools: One is to let the currency respond to market forces until it [the depreciation] is too much. In the past, it was never too much. This was the first time. If the currency depreciates by 14.0 percent in several months, that is too much. How do you know whether the depreciation is too much? The answer is not until you see it. Those are the tools we used, and, I think, we used them effectively. And thank God, we have many cushions [against external shocks]-BPO [business process outsourcing], remittances, and foreign direct investments continue to flow in. Those are the things that worked in our favor. Second and Third Pillars And the other factor that worked in our favor is our second pillar: banking stability, financial stability. Our banks are very well-capitalized and very well-managed. Thank God for our Basel III standards and thank God for the people running the banks-many of whom were still young but already adults and, luckily, middle-level managers when the Asian Financial Crisis hit. In other words, the people running the bank all remember 1997. So, what we are now seeing is a very strong banking system that remains solid despite the contraction of the economy in 2019. Pursuing Trust Regulatory Reforms For a long time, we have been reforming how we do trust regulations. Indeed, we are quite happy with the trust entities that are not part of banks. Indeed, it is quite important to us that there is a very strong separation between the trust of a bank and the bank itself. As part of our Trust Business Model, or TBM initiative, we pursued a number of reforms. Allow me to cite some of them: We reduced the IMA [investment management activity] minimum to 100,000. We introduced a simplified licensing framework for UITFs [unit investment trust funds]. 5/7 BIS - Central bankers' speeches This is a long story, but when the peso was extremely strong and appreciating, some foreign banks borrowed from the head office to place it on the SDA [special deposit account]. Because of the zero interest rate sa home country niya, tapos the peso is appreciating, pinagbawal namin 'yon. We caught one bank [violating the rules] and told them to return all the interest they earned as penalty. And they said, "Hindi namin kinita iyon. May minus 20.0 percent [in tax] dahil kay [then tax chief] Kim Henares." Sabi namin, "Singilin mo kay Kim Henares." I think, naniningil pa sila hanggang ngayon. Unfortunately, it made it harder to manage the trust [operations] because bawal ang foreign funds. So, we [at the central bank] said, "With UITFs, we will consider it domestic if it only has 10.0 percent [in share of net assets of non-residents]. If it is 10.0 percent foreign, it is [still] domestic." Now, why are we so concerned when UITFs buy our [central bank (CB)] securities? In the complex language of monetary policy, [there is a word known as] "sterilize." If the central bank buys assets, it will increase money supply. So, the only way the central bank can prevent money supply from increasing is to sell securities [in order] to get back the money. What we noticed is that if the banks get the money, they can easily change their mind and re-lend it. When the trusts get the money, it is sticky. So, you play a much more important role in money supply management. By the way, thank God, our new Charter allows us to borrow from the public. In other words, when we buy assets, we increase money supply. But if we do not want that to happen, we do a counter, which is we borrow. But then, the borrowing may attract arbitrage, kaya ipinagbawal namin ang foreign funds. So, this is one important role that you play. To the extent that you buy CB securities, you [trusts] help us sterilize more permanently. Closing Message In closing, the legal and regulatory frameworks and the economic environment may continue to evolve, but you can be assured that the BSP has the Philippine economy, financial system, and Filipinos' best interests in mind as we chart our path forward. Of course, we are also extremely focused on making sure that there are new technologies in the payment systems, that more and more people go digital, and that more and more people embrace QR [quick response]. Of course, our goal is that even the tricycle driver is able to accept QR payments. So, these are the things that we are doing. Of course, we would very much want your support. Finally, congratulations to the new board of trustees and board of senior managers of ACI and FMAP. I commend the outgoing set of FMAP officers, led by Mr. Vincent Daffon, who is passing the torch to a new set of trustees, led by Ms. Maria Cristina Gabaldon. May you lead the association further along toward realizing its vision of 6/7 BIS - Central bankers' speeches being a catalyst of change in the industry and upholding the interest of the investing public. Maraming salamat, at magandang hapon sa inyong lahat. 1 Corrected figure for the longest series of consecutive months of above-target inflation (January 2008 – May 2009); Based on consumer price index data with 2006 as the base year 2 Corrected figures for the short-run exchange rate pass-through 7/7 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 2023 Annual Reception for the Banking Community, Manila, 23 February 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: A future-ready Philippines - digital, sustainable, inclusive Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 2023 Annual Reception for the Banking Community, Manila, 23 February 2023. *** To say that this kind of crowd is at least three times bigger than the last one we had in October [2022 at the previous Bankers' Night] precisely is an understatement. Of course, my friend says, "If you are too excited, you should not be a central bank governor." But it turned out that the fact that we knew that today is a holiday-and the information came only rather late, after 6:00 p.m.-turned out to be a blessing. Because what we did, of course, was to cancel everything, except the important events of the day-and this is the most important one. To our friends from the banking community; the diplomatic corps; partners in nationbuilding; and, of course, their spouses; ladies and gentlemen, magandang gabi. On behalf of the Monetary Board, I officially welcome you to our Bankers' Night. By the way, people were asking me, "Did we not just have one [Bankers' Night] in October [2022]?" The answer is yes. [The] October [reception] was [intended] to make up for the pandemic because we had not met for a long time, and this [year's] meeting is to start the ball rolling again. We will have this every year, we hope. Marking 30 Years as an Independent Monetary Authority While the previous receptions were memorable in their own rights-I speak from experience because I have attended 11 of them-2023 is extra special because this year, we mark the 30th day of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). Remember, we used to be called the Central Bank of the Philippines (CBP). It was 30 years ago, in 1993, when the BSP was created to replace the CBP. It took some time but that law, implemented in the Constitution of 1987, says that there must be an independent monetary authority. What really happened was only one cabinet member was allowed to be on the Monetary Board. By the way, whoever he is, and especially right now, they make great inputs. And I thank them, especially my predecessor, [Finance Secretary] Ben Diokno. But when the three pillars of the central bank are at stake, I am confident that this is where the Monetary Board would work very hard to protect the independence of the institution. Please stand up, my colleagues from the Monetary Board. We often disagree, but we are never disagreeable. The Link between Central Bank Independence and Growth The law that explicitly made the central bank independent happened 30 years ago, and we have seen the results in the performance of the economy. Often, there are debates about whether managing inflation can sometimes conflict with high economic growth. 1/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches But theory says the predictability of policies of the central bank will also contribute to economic growth. For instance, if inflation is predictable, it makes it very easy for the government to issue longer-term bonds. Those who are old enough to remember know that [back then,] T-bills [Treasury bills, shorter-term securities] accounted for maybe 70 percent of the bonds issued by the government because nobody knows what inflation will be many years from now. Therefore, I really thank my predecessors, the former central bank governors, but I cannot think of anybody who has contributed more than [former Governor] Say Tetangco. [We had] 12 years of him [as central bank governor]. Say played a special role because this was the time we became an inflation-targeting central bank1. In fact, I was asked, "Is it a good idea [to shift to inflation targeting]?" And I said, it can go both ways: It can be a terrible disaster if the public cannot distinguish between inflation that is due to the fault of the monetary authorities and inflation that is due to things outside of the control of the central bank. It turns out, excellent communication by previous central bank governors set the tone, and it made my job rather easy. Again, I thank all of them. The Banking System as a Pillar of Economic Strength We ended 2022 in a position of stability and strength. Of course, our partners-the banksclearly played a very, very important role. Despite COVID, our banks remained strong and, indeed, because of that, as soon as the economy opened, it was raring to go, as shown by the 7.6-percent economic growth last year. By the way, I think we were abroad then [when the growth figures were released], and we were taking bets, and I lost the bet because I said it was going to be 7.4 percent. So, [part of] the reason for that [economic resurgence] is because our banking system sustained its solid footing, as shown in the continued growth in assets, deposits, and profits, as well as ample capital, liquidity buffers, and loan loss reserves. And I am so proud of the improvement in the way the banks are managed. Over the years-every year, every decade-it is improving. So, to people from the banking sector, we would like to shout out and say thank you for doing a good job. Readying the Financial System for the Future Now, I must go to something more forward-looking, which is [our theme for tonight]: "A Future-Ready Philippines: Digital, Sustainable, and Inclusive." The first is digitalization, and we have done great work there. The share of digital transactions in total payments has been growing steadily. Both InstaPay and PESONet have been great successes [in promoting payments digitalization]. And now, more and more people are using QR [quick response] to make payments. But we should not sit on our laurels. We should achieve more, and we must make digitalization more inclusive. 2/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches And one way to make it more inclusive-and I am sure we can work together to achieve it-is if small transactions will be free of charge so that the poor can also use digital payments. Because if the transaction is small and the fee is 15, it is quite large relative to the transaction. And I am sure, with the way that we are able to work together in the past, we-the Bangko Sentral and our partners in the banking system-will be able to work together to find a cost-sharing system that excludes small payments from fees, provided it is below a certain number of transactions, let us say three, three per day. And there is a way of sharing costs. I promise you, the central bank will be in a greater hurry to cut reserve requirements so you can afford to give those [concessions]. Of course, we are also boosting our cybersecurity efforts to address emerging risks and maintain public trust in the digital financial ecosystem. Sometimes, when one event that is unpleasant gets reported and reported, it seems like it is a lot more frequent than it really is. That is why it is very, very important to address complaints very quickly. So, among these initiatives is the [cybersecurity awareness campaign] Check, Protect, and Report. I will not bore you with details because you are really here to enjoy the party. My last topic will be sustainability and inclusivity. As my predecessors emphasized, the true measure of an effective policy lies not in its complexities but rather in its benefits for those at the margins. With this, we have pursued digitalization and financial inclusion to integrate the unserved and the underserved. As I already said, much as we have already done great progress [in financial inclusion], if we work together, we will make this become even more widespread as in the countries that have succeeded ahead of us. Of course, equally important, the BSP also established guidelines on open finance-the biggest part of which is the handling of information. Of course, the basic philosophy is [that] the person owns the information about himself. And this, I suppose, can also greatly improve the functioning of the system. Building on a Foundation of Collaboration Dear friends, there is much work already done and so much more that we can do together in the future. I am grateful for our long-standing partnership and shared commitment, which has helped the Philippine banking system be what it is as today: a pillar of strength for the Philippine economy. Of course, I can only imagine what it can become in the future. So, I would like to call the people who made this possible. If I had done this, there will be 200 to 300 people here. But I will call only the Monetary Board Members (MBMs): 3/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Secretary Ben Diokno; MBM Peter Favila; MBM Tony Abacan; MBM Bruce Tolentino2; the only rose among the thorns, MBM Annie Aquino; and MBM Eli Remolona. Ladies and gentlemen, let us offer a toast to blessings of peace and prosperity for everyone-for our people and for our country. Para sa Bawat Pilipino, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas! Mabuhay tayong lahat! Mabuhay ang buong bansang Pilipinas at lahat ng taong dumating dito! 1 The BSP became an inflation-targeting central bank in 2002, under the leadership of former Gov. Rafael Buenaventura. But it was during Gov. Amando Tetangco's 12-year term, from 2005–2017, that key reforms to the central bank's inflation-targeting regime were implemented and put in place. 2 MBM Bruce Tolentino was not present during the event. 4/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) 2023 Philippine Economic Briefing, Manila, 26 February 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: In pursuit of price stability - challenges and opportunities Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) 2023 Philippine Economic Briefing, Manila, 26 February 2023. *** I am very glad to be here and seeing old friends. I remember the days when we were talking about tariff reforms, right? Credit to our country, there were continuous reforms in trade, fiscal, and monetary areas. And now, with a very market-friendly government, we are quite optimistic about the future. Examining the Structural Make-up of the Philippine Economy: An Eye to the Past and a Path to the Future But let me say a little bit of what I think is the history of the Philippines, which is: It is fairly easy to stimulate growth. The problem is growth, generally, results in an even faster increase in imports, by the very nature of the economy. And therefore, eventually, growth goes to a stop because of a balance of payments crisis. Now, that was solved by remittances and then, later on, BPO [business process outsourcing revenues]. And that is why until the pandemic came, we had a very beautiful picture of the economy: high growth and falling poverty [incidence]. By the way, the indicator I always look at to see if the economy is improving is the number of unpaid family workers. Sabi nga naman eh, "May trabaho ka na nga, gusto mo pa ng sweldo?" So, that is really a very big sign of informality [in the labor force], and that was declining very quickly. The next question really is: We had two horses [growth drivers] that carried us [the economy]: remittances and BPO. What will replace them when those two horses mature? This is my own experience as a central banker. Stimulating the economy is fairly easy because we have a very young population. And by some accident-by the way, I am really way outside my field-I think we are a country of malls because we have no parks. And, therefore, the malls are fairly good. Everybody is there. You have a dental appointment, you have [to apply for a] driver's license-think about it-it is in the mall. By the way, my classmate, Bobby Claudio, will tell you about this-the power of the malls. When I talk to foreigners, they marvel at how many people are in our malls. You explain to them, the traffic is [like] this. [They ask,] "What is that [volume]? [Is it] per year?" No, that is per month. The real problem is growth-sooner or later, unless met by rising exports-grinds to a halt because the current account deficit will get larger. So, the real question is: How do we attract manufacturing FDI [foreign direct investment]? By the way, it is not a problem in banking. The Philippines is the primary source when it comes to global services. For 1/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches instance, JPMorgan has 20,000 employees here. If we can have the same success somewhere else [in different sectors of the economy]-mining has already been mentioned-then growth will continue. Fortunately, we do not have to step on the brakes too soon because the central bank FX [foreign exchange] reserves are high. In other words, if we get a bad year or two, the central bank can actually sell some of its FX reserves. Well, of course, if it keeps doing that, then the central bank FX reserves fall, confidence in the currency will fall, and we will have all sorts of problems that we have had historically. By the way, I started too soon. I should greet all my friends. [PCCI President] George Barcelon. We graduated the same year, but I did not have Grade 7 and Kinder. Addressing the Inflation Question Your [PCCI's] press release is that "The government must act immediately to reduce inflation in the first quarter of 2023." From what I see, a lot of important things are already happening. For instance, the importation of sugar took a long time, but it is now finally coming. By the way, in the case of sugar, all the protectionist policies have been embedded there for decades. So, it is not easy [to reverse]. Of course, one can say that it is about time that we review [our sugar importation policy]. When you have to close bottling plants because of the shortage of sugar, what you have is a problem. The economy is growing rapidly. And if you say "do not import," you will have shortages because agriculture [is] growing at 1.0 or 2.0 percent. So, the real question is: What can you do with the 1.0-percent growth? How can you raise that? But the pragmatic problem in the short run is you [the government] cannot do it [improve agricultural productivity] overnight. [So,] let the private sector decide how much to import. Protection should be a question of tariffs, not bureaucracy. Of course, some parts of that cannot be removed, like [those that address] phytosanitary [concerns]. Eh kung may sakit nga naman ang pinanggagalingan ng imports, talagang dapat bawal [pumasok]. Unpacking the Drivers of Philippine Inflation Well, our inflation is a combination of two things. One is economic growth surprised everyone-meaning growth was strong. Demand was growing stronger than expected. But the biggest source of inflation, of course, is the supply-side pressures. Now, the latest inflation print is 8.7 percent [in January 2023]. The reason for that is, there are many small [consumer price index] items that have very large [price] increases. For instance, if something is 1.0 percent of the budget, it is practically a rounding error, unless the increase is 50 percent. If it increased [by] 50 percent, 50 percent of 1.0 percentage point (ppt) is 0.5 percent. And you know that an inflation target band is only plus or minus 1.0 ppt. As I already said, I am quite optimistic that these [domestic supply-side pressures on inflation] are all being addressed already. 2/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches And I cannot think of two better persons than [National Economic and Development Authority Chief] Arsi Balisacan and [Finance Secretary] Ben Diokno [to advise the president of the need to import]. Of course, I am biased. I have been with them in the [University of the Philippines] Faculty of Economics. In the case of Arsi, [it was] more than two decades because he is younger than me. In the case of Ben, I cannot count the decades. As you can see, the chart is worrisome. Both core inflation and headline inflation are high. But also, as you can see from the chart, headline inflation should be below 4.0 percent by the fourth quarter. Of course, the number we look at is the average for the year. If it [inflation] is 8.0 percent now, [in December 2022 and January 2023,] and 4.0 percent at the end of the year, the [full-year] average is 6.1 percent. Now, what will that do to growth? Well, in our response, of course, we did two things: We sold dollars when there was too much FX volatility, and, of course, we raised the policy rate many times. Economy is on the Mend You will see that, of course, the economy was badly hurt by COVID. But, as you can see, it has now recovered and doing quite strongly. Now, what will happen this year is a contest of forecasts. IMF [International Monetary Fund] says [gross domestic product growth is estimated at] 5.0 percent. Our own "nowcast"-that is a terrible term [as] you are forecasting what has already happened because your data comes one quarter late. So, our nowcast, which could change, is closer to the government's [target] than the IMF's. If I were to bet my money, it is going to be 6.0 percent or higher this year. Decisive Political Leadership during Economic Crises Now, why is that important? That is important because of COVID. [Government] debt increased significantly, and the deficit increased significantly. And the best-case scenario is, there is no need for new taxes because we will outgrow the debt. So far, that [bullish] scenario may not be ruled out. But remember, we have a history when scenarios do not turn out as expected. For some reason, we as a country got together to address them. The best example of this is when former President Fidel Ramos got rid of the Oil Price Stabilization Fund. The problem with that fund is that you apply it only when the prices are rising. So, therefore, it will go bankrupt. If [oil] prices are rising, you [intervene to] stabilize. But if prices are falling, you follow. So, you lose money when prices are rising; you gain nothing when the price is falling, [and this results in] bankruptcy of the fund, which will cost the government. Ramos said, "Enough of this. Let us deregulate." Then, we have shortages in the financing of government. What is the best indicator? When I was in government, the borrowing cost of the national government of the Philippines in dollars for 10 years was 6.0 ppts higher than the borrowing cost of the US [United States] government. Same tenor, same currency, [but the interest was] 6.0 ppts 3/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches higher. Why? They thought we will default. And to the credit of former President Gloria Arroyo, she expanded the value-added tax (VAT)-10 percent to 12 percent-and included fuels and electricity in VAT. [It was] very unpopular, but that solved a lot of problems. The spread is now down to 1.0 ppt. Pent-up Demand Seen to Carry the Economy Forward The other thing going for us is that we have revenge spending or pent-up demand-a lot of postponed demand. You can see this: 24.7 percent [spending] increase in hotels and restaurants, 31.0 percent increase in car sales, unemployment down to 4.3 percent. International tourist arrivals [is] now 2.65 million-of course, not fully recovered yet-while domestic tourism has fully recovered, I think, as you can see that from the hotel and restaurant numbers. BSP's Expanded Inflation Toolkit Now, what have we done [to respond to inflation]? What we have done, of course, is to use all the medicines that we can use. One is to raise the policy rate. The US [Federal Reserve] is raising its policy rate. The dollar is too strong. For some reason, the Philippine markets are thinking: If the differential between the US policy rate and the Philippine policy rate is less than 1.0 to 1.25 ppts, they [speculators] attack the peso. In other words, their risk premium is: The peso is the more risky currency than the dollar; I need a premium of 100 to 150 basis points (bps). So, we raised policy rates. By the way, the last [rate] increase [in February 2023] has nothing to do with the US. It has to do with our high [domestic] inflation. Now, as you can see, we have the highest [cumulative] policy rate adjustment of the countries in the table, [which is] 400 bps, followed by South Korea at 300 bps. Also, we sold FX reserves just like Thailand and Korea in that regard, [on how much they sold] relative to our FX reserves. Of course, the other tool is, we tell markets what we intend to do and why. And, I think, this is one of the reasons the Bangko Sentral has been quite effective [in inflation targeting] over the years. Well, a recent example of this stronger guidance was provided in last week's Bankers' Night, where I said, "We will reduce the RRR [reserve requirement ratio]." We hope, in return, the banks will waive all fees on small transactions when people make bank-to-bank payments. From what I hear from the banking association, they are receptive to this. I am looking forward to more and more digital payments, especially by the poor, using their accounts, which have grown significantly because of InstaPay and so on. Managing Foreign Exchange Pressures Of course, my speech will not be complete if I do not tell you that for a while, there was FX pressure [on the peso], when people began to taunt us, "Nagse-senior citizen na 'yung peso kasi 60." Although my response is: What is the difference between 60.1 and 59.9? But, I guess, [market] psychology, no? 4/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches As you can see, a combination of the things we did, plus the fact that the US is now saying that the jumbo increases are over, has caused the dollar to weaken, which means the peso has appreciated. As you can see in the next chart, if your point of view is starting from November [2022], the picture is now the opposite [the peso has since strengthened]. The slowdown in the pacing of US policy tightening has eased the pressure on the peso. On a year-to-date basis, the peso is the second most-appreciated currency in the region after Indonesia's rupiah, but we will continue to monitor the situation. Robust External Accounts Provide Cushion against Spillovers As I already said, our advantage is that we are actually getting quite a bit of net FDI, but, of course, we want that to increase even further. By the way, the feedback I am getting everywhere is that the President's shift in foreign affairs policy is very much welcome, especially by the Japanese-well, of course, the Americans, Japanese, and Koreans. It is a much, much more balanced foreign affairs policy, which, I think, is also quite attractive to businessmen. Second and Third Pillars I would be remiss if I do not talk about how strong our banks are. And what was clear is as the lockdowns stopped, lending recovered very, very quickly. Our banks are wellcapitalized, well-managed, and well-governed. And both the regulator and those being regulated have learned lessons from the past crisis. And, as I already said, there is a strong momentum in payments digitalization, and the increase in the number of accounts because of e-money [electronic money]. To many people, especially the poor, going to a bank-even if it is nearby-[is too much of a hurdle]. Just the thought of having to dress up to go there, no? In 2019, 29 percent had accounts, and 56 percent had accounts in 2021. By the way, some people-like most people here-probably will have four or five accounts, but that [figure] is already factored in, the double counting. The increase in the number of accounts has been tremendous and is largely because of e-money. Then, as I already said, transactions in our fast payment system InstaPay are already approaching ATM [automated teller machine] transaction volume, while transactions in PESONet are already approaching check levels. So, these milestones are evidence of strong momentum in the country's digitalization. We are trying to assist that further with the Paleng-QR Ph Plus project, where people can pay with their phones in the marketplace, transportation, and so on and so forth. I was in Baguio [for the launch], and as I was going around the market, there was a person there who was so excited about GCash. They [the GCash team] said that they found her [without meaning to] because they could see [monitor] transaction [activity in Baguio]. 5/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches So, that is the other direction that we are going to, which is people can be given credit scores, and there is less and less need for collateral for lending. Cautious Optimism for the Future So, it is hard not to be optimistic. Of course, there will be hurdles along the way-the problem being high growth means even higher import growth. We better attract investments that will allow us to have export earnings because, I think, it is very hard to increase remittances [even further] because, in fact, some people are coming home as the economy becomes more attractive. With that, I end my presentation and look forward to your questions. By the way, I am so glad the other speaker is Mr. Sabin Aboitiz. I think the entire idea that the President has been in constant touch with the private sector [is a good idea], and I am quite optimistic that this back-and-forth between the President and the private sector will refine policies even more. Of course, we will tell him that an independent central bank is good for the country in the long run and even in the short run. Thank you very much, and good morning. 6/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) briefing on the immediate impact of rising inflation on the national programs and projects of the government, Manila, 27 February 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: An assessment of the Philippine inflation picture Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) briefing on the immediate impact of rising inflation on the national programs and projects of the government, Manila, 27 February 2023. *** Chairman Elizaldy Co; Congressman Stella Quimbo; members of the Committee on Appropriations; and colleagues from government, good morning. Both Congresswoman Quimbo and [Finance Secretary] Ben [Diokno], my colleagues, have already said quite a bit on inflation. Examining the Drivers of Inflation The important point is that, of course, food and non-alcoholic beverages are the biggest contributors to inflation. But the other point is that the pressures on prices are broadening. To put this in simple numbers, 196 items out of the 315 [total consumer price index (CPI) items in January 2023] that are used to calculate the price index are above 4.0 percent, [the upper bound of the inflation target], and 123 of those [above-target CPI items] are food and beverages. So, [it is], quite a bit, meaning inflation is beginning to spread to the rest of the economy. But the other way to look at it is, 66 of those [CPI items] are not [above target or within threshold]. To put it bluntly, higher prices could beget higher prices. Of course, the scary part is what they call a "wage-price spiral": Prices are high, wages are high; prices are high[er], wages are high[er]. To make matters worse, if that also results [in a vicious cycle where] prices are high, the peso is weaker; weaker peso, higher prices. Then, we will really be in trouble. Keeping Supply-side Pressures on the Supply Side Fortunately, that is not the case. To some extent, we have been quite successful in preventing what we call "knock-on" effects, second-order effects of the supply shocks on inflation. Historically, that has resulted in the fact that the longest period that we have had headline inflation above 4.0 percent, [the upper band of our target range], is 15 months. This means after three months, the base effects take over because of the higher prices. It is harder for prices to increase if they are already high. Historically, the "knock-on" effects are controlled within three or four months. Threats to Preserving Price Stability However, what is evolving is our own [inflation] forecast. [It] is that maybe, this time, we will have 19 or 20 consecutive months where inflation will be above 4.0 percent, [the 1/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches upper band of the target range]. This [current] inflation is a lot more serious than what we have experienced since the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) became an inflationtargeting central bank. [What used to be] 15 straight months [of] above-target [inflation] will now be 19, 20 straight months above target. But still, it is important to point out that, of course, even when you take out the outliers-and we call that core inflation-inflation is still 7.4 percent. As I said, our forecast is that inflation will be above target for 19 to 20 months, which means inflation will be below 4.0 percent, maybe, by November or December at the earliest. Since inflation now is above 8.0 percent, and you have slightly below 4.0 percent by the end [of the year], the average [full-year] inflation, of course, will be more than 6.0 percent if you average the 8.0 percent with the 4.0 percent. That is why our forecast inflation-the average of the year-on-year figures-will be 6.1 percent. Moreover, our view is that the risk we will revise the forecast upwards is higher than the risk we will revise it downwards. That is the situation. The private sector has also revised its [inflation] forecast. Their forecast for the year is about 6.0 percent-but, I suppose, now that we are [the central bank] revising it upwards, I suppose, they will revise theirs as well. What is worrisome is, although our forecast for 2024 is closer to 3.0 percent than to 4.0 percent, the private sector forecast is 4.0 percent. We call this the "disanchoring of inflationary expectations." People expect higher prices. Therefore, they raise prices. Therefore, we had little choice but to act aggressively. We have raised policy rates from 200 basis points (bps), when [Finance Sec.] Ben was still BSP Governor, to 600 bps. And, by and large, our experience is that [response] will make our [inflation] targets achievable. By the end of the year, inflation will be below target, either in November or December [2023]-or January [2024] at the worst. Diminishing Foreign Exchange Pressures Offer Some Relief The other thing that is working in our favor is that a strong dollar is no longer there. As you can see, there was a time when the peso depreciated by as much as 14 percent because the dollar was very strong. But since the Fed [US Federal Reserve] has already signaled that they are done with jumbo increases in the policy rate, the dollar has weakened. On the other hand, because the BSP has acted aggressively, the peso has actually appreciated if you start counting from January. As you can see from the chart, the peso has actually appreciated by 1.0 percent since January. In other words, what we are saying is, we are doing our best. We think we will succeed in making sure that we do not have a self-fulfilling prophecy of high inflation: Inflation is 2/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches high because it is high, and it will be higher. We think we have largely tamed that, although I am not promising there will be no more rate increases. We have largely contained "knock-on" effects, second-order effects of inflation. Real Policy Rate Remains Accommodative The question you might ask: Will our [tight] monetary policies not slow down the economy significantly? Our own calculation is, it will slow down the economy but not significantly. One of the reasons, of course, is that, although the policy rate is 6.0 percent, our forecast [full-year] inflation-if it happens at the end of the year-will be about 4.0 percent. Then, in reality, the real [inflation-adjusted] interest rate is just 2.0 percent. Sustaining the Growth Momentum Of course, the strength of the economy [is] the high level of confidence, especially, I think, the current administration's policies are very well-received by markets, not just here but abroad as well. We are confident that the economy will remain strong. Of course, there are disagreements on what the growth rate will be this year. The most pessimistic is the IMF [International Monetary Fund] at 5.0 percent. Our own forecasts [at the central bank] are quite consistent with [Finance] Sec. Ben's. We, [the economy], should be between 6.0 percent and 7.0 percent this year. The point is, the economy-even after adjusting for inflation, after removing the effects of inflation on values-we are actually seeing the economy grow by 7.6 percent last year to 6.0 percent this year. The Importance of Targeted Assistance and Non-monetary Measures to Support the Hardest Hit So, the real problem is how to assist the most vulnerable. Of course, from a political standpoint, how to address the needs of the middle class because they are the most articulate among all the other voters. We support all the measures that the government is doing. My own reading is, please correct me if I am wrong, is that the imports are finally coming in. That is the case with sugar. But I do agree with Congressman [Stella] Quimbo that imports are important short-term measures because, clearly, we cannot increase [agricultural] production quickly in three months. Agriculture takes a long time. So, imports are necessary, but they will not totally defuse the price increases. In the case of pork, because of swine flu, people actually prefer fresh pork to frozen pork. So, similarly, the imports are, in many cases, not available very, very quickly in places that are far away from Manila. One of the other reasons why inflation was higher than expected was because the economy was stronger than expected. In other words, demand was actually strong. You 3/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches can see in the chart, year-on-year spending in hotels and restaurants was almost 25 percent higher. That is some form of revenge spending [as] people have not gone out and eaten [since the pandemic]. You can see how crowded the restaurants are. Vehicle sales are up [by] 31 percent. Fortunately, there is some recovery in international tourism. It is still way below what it used to be. Finally, you can see unemployment, by historical standards, is quite low. In short, the economy can take the policy rate increases. The real issue is how one can have targeted assistance to the most vulnerable. Taking a Long-term View on Development External [credit rating] analysts, for instance, [noted that] we, [the Philippines], are not having general cuts in taxes. I was told by the central bank governor of Thailand that they had a "temporary" cut in VAT [value-added tax], and after 30 years, the temporary cut is still there. I think temporary things tend to be not temporary. The analysts are saying, "Well, macroeconomic policymaking and fiscal policymaking in the Philippines are actually quite well-disciplined." As [Finance Sec.] Ben and I would tell them, "Do not look at what we have done. Look at what we have not done, which is take these easy responses that could later be hard to reverse." Therefore, the key is addressing the problem at the root and having more targeted assistance. Thank you very much. 4/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the book launch of "Labor Market Implications of COVID 19 in the Philippines", Manila, 1 March 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Examining how the pandemic reshaped the Philippine labor market Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the book launch of "Labor Market Implications of COVID 19 in the Philippines", Manila, 1 March 2023. *** Let me start by saying that, to me, this is a very happy occasion. I am seeing old friends. There are two meanings of old-one is the difference between your birthdate, and mine is five or less. That is old, right? The other one is that I have known you for decades. Of course, in this particular case, that is also true. And, in particular, the first two people on my list to greet: Professor Dante Canlas and Monetary Board Member Eli Remolona. They are friends [who are] really "old." And then, of course, if you see our old pictures, we were very young, okay? Of course, I was hoping that [former Deputy Governor] Cyd [Tuano-Amador] would be here, but she is here in spirit. So, to these valued guests, ladies and gentlemen, magandang umaga po sa inyong lahat. Today, we officially launch the book Labor Market Implications of the COVID 19 Pandemic in the Philippines. The book, which was commissioned by then Governor [Benjamin] Diokno, seeks to examine the profound impacts of the pandemic on the economy and the population in general, and the labor market in particular. Looking into the labor market for macro and micro insights The pandemic has shown us just how critical analysis of the labor market is [in order] to understand not just the economy but [also] the welfare of human beings. We saw many things happening: reduced working hours, depressed wages, and widespread job losses. We have also seen that the pandemic has exposed many structural problems and weaknesses in the labor markets. For instance, the pandemic has shown that workers providing the most essential services were among the most overworked, most underpaid, and, disproportionately, more vulnerable to shocks such as the pandemic. Then, there is the additional consequence of the pandemic compromising the quality of education of the students who will make up our future labor force. Every now and then, I watch telenovelas-Korean-just to keep up with what my wife is watching. I was surprised that in one of the shows, it talks about a generation whose futures were permanently changed relative to other cohorts because they were hit by the financial crisis. Malas ka na lang [kung] ga-graduate ka sa year na 'yun. Wasak ang ekonomiya. You had a bad start. And [since] you had a bad start, therefore, you had less opportunities. Can you imagine, in this particular case, this was just a financial crisis, not a pandemic? So, if that [topic] would hit the telenovelas, then clearly, these shocks are really very important. Kawawa naman 'yung tinamaan. Kawawa naman 'yung mga pinanganak sa panahon na ito. 1/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches By the way, my other reference to this is, I talk to people who were students during the Japanese occupation. And very memorable to me is the story of our favorite deanmentor namin nina Dante Canlas, Eli [Remolona], Manny Esguerra. Sabi niya, the Japanese occupation changed his life completely because sabi ng tatay niya sa kanya, "Hindi naman magtatagal ang Hapon dito. Dito ka na lang muna sa bahay. Home study ka na lang." Ang problema, every year, his father will say that "Hindi na magtatagal ang Hapon dito." So, he never really went to school for a period of time. Of course, in this case, it was exactly the opposite. He was a very intelligent person. He was reading left and right-doing nothing but read. And he actually got a superior education because he did not go to school. Of course, in reality, that is the rare exception. Responsive policies begin with a deeper understanding of issues So, you can see then why this book is very important, and it goes beyond academic inquiry and policy guidance. As I said, maybe for every person there is a little story here. Ano kayang mangyayari sa buhay ko if hindi nagkaroon ng pandemic? Of course, you will never know, right? But we can all say that, clearly, the pandemic induced disruptions to the labor market that have not just altered the mechanisms of the macroeconomy [but also] changed the lives of many people, and, in most cases, for the worst. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) offers this book as our contribution to the fulfillment of our duty to improve the understanding of the economy and also improve the quality of policies. Much remains to be learned about the economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic not just in the labor market, but as I already said, [also in] the development of human capital. Of course, there is still hope that, in some cases, remedial measures can cure the scarring effects. Closing message Let me end by saying those responsible for putting this book together. Of course, we thank our editor, Dr. Dante Canlas. Dante Canlas and I, we used to share a faculty room with Eli Remolona and Vic Paqueo. There were four of us sharing a room. Kaya, kayong mga taga-BSP, 'wag kayong magrereklamong maliliit 'yung mga kwarto niyo, ha? The reason was that the [University of the Philippines] College of Business and the School of Economics were [located] in a tiny building. Can you imagine two colleges in a tiny building? And for those of you who are old enough to remember, that is the building between AS [Palma Hall] and [the College of] Education. May prize-who can remember the name of the old building? Ano? No. Palma Hall ito, tapos ito 'yung Benitez Hall. Ano 'yung nasa gitna? Sobrang bata niyo, ang tawag niyo Palma Hall Annex. Benton Hall! It was just called Benton Hall, okay? Naging annex 'yan ng Palma Hall kaya nakalimutan niyo na si Benton. Maybe, Benton was not worth remembering. Forgive me, I am just too excited. That is why I am all over the place, no? Of course, we thank Dante Canlas. Clearly doing research is not easy, and I admire people who are able to do it and actually publish [their work]. We are grateful that they have committed their talents to this undertaking. 2/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches We also thank the dedicated staff of the BSP Research Academy and the Communication Office who worked on the publication from the initial concept to the end to see it in print. Of course, we will have a digital version, right? You have my utmost thanks. It is my hope that this book will serve as a valuable resource to policymakers, employers, and laborers alike, and, maybe, even people who are writing the script for telenovelas. Thank you very much, and mabuhay tayong lahat. 3/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Chamber of Thrift Banks General Membership Meeting, Manila, 23 March 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: The Philippine thrift banking industry - a picture of resilience Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Chamber of Thrift Banks General Membership Meeting, Manila, 23 March 2023. *** Magandang tanghali sa inyong lahat. By the way, in the details [of my introduction, it said] I started teaching in 1991, but, in reality, I started much earlier. I think I joined the UP [University of the Philippines] faculty in 1976, but, then, I was not really considered a full-fledged member of the faculty because I was an instructor. I went to Northwestern in 1978 and came home in 1983. So, there is no other place where I have stayed longer than UP, but there is no other place outside UP where I have stayed longer than in the BSP [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas]. And as they say, sometimes, you love your latest girlfriend more than the previous ones. Of course, another institution-I was there for a long time-was La Salle, because I came from La Salle Lipa and eventually moved to La Salle Taft. So, I guess, in terms of length of residence: UP, BSP, and La Salle. But if you weigh it where recent years have twice the weight of older [previous] years, then the longest place where I have stayed is BSP. So let me thank the Chamber for inviting me to be your guest speaker. Last October you invited me to your annual convention and I think I gave a video message. I'm glad that my schedule allowed me to come [in person] today. As I always say, we in the BSP always welcome the opportunity to engage the public and engage the very institutions that we regulate, which we proudly say are a source of strength of our economy, a source of strength and stability, as you will see later. Three pillars of central banking Of course, I always start with our three pillars: price stability, financial stability, and a safe, secure, and efficient payments and settlements system. The last one [pillar] used to be the most boring because it's largely-a big part of it-is the physical payment system. Because of digital technologies, it's now the most dynamic [among the three pillars] where the changes are happening very fast. I'm glad, listening to the previous speaker, that you, the thrift banks, are really very open to new ideas and new technology. Because, I think, that's very important for the thrift bank industry to prosper. Taking decisive action to preserve price stability 1/9 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Going back to the first pillar, we have just increased the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps). Remember as late as November 2020 [at the height of the pandemic], the policy rate was just 200 ppts. Now, it's 625 ppts. Of course, I always say, do not look at that as [moving from] 400 ppts to 625 ppts because, in reality, the policy rate of 200 ppts was really a response to something so unusual, which was the pandemic. In fact, from the beginning, when we made [brought down] the policy rate to 200 ppts, we already had an exit plan-a gentle one – [where we intended to slowly raise rates by] 25 bps, 25 bps, 25 bps. The other thing we did-because the pandemic was causing people to flee to cash-is we had to buy a trillion pesos worth of government securities. Of course, we lost a little bit of money there. But in the long run, it's a very important part of our balance sheet because our plan is a reverse repo, which is now a fixed rate option, will be a true market rate because we now have sufficient security for the reverse repo. We did not plan it that way but when we decided to do something to save the bond market from panic, we ended up with securities that can now be used for this reform. Do watch out for the time when we no longer ration [central bank securities]. By the way, rationing creates all sorts of problems. Say a bank that wants ten will bid twenty, hoping that if they allocate proportionately, he has a bigger share in the program. Of course, there are banks who outsmart themselves: bid too much and then regrettably win what they bid for. And they end up, of course, being penalized or end up borrowing at a higher cost just to make sure they will not be penalized. Follow-through monetary action aimed at nipping inflation in the bud and ensuring credibility as an inflation-targeter Now, going back, what was the consideration for doing [raising the policy rate by] 25 bps [at our latest policy meeting] when we've already done 400 bps [in cumulative policy adjustments]? In fact, the 400 bps already puts us at the top of the list [of central banks that have raised their policy rates]. The reason is we really want to make sure that our credibility as an inflation-targeting central bank, after all of this, will remain solid and widely respected. In the past, I always say the worst case of inflation we have had is 15 straight months of inflation being above target. Now, this one [current round of elevated inflation] is really special; we may have 19 [months] already. Let me explain why. The typical [drivers of] Philippine inflation is never because we [at the central bank] created too much credit; it's because of supply shocks. The typical supply shock lasts about four or five months. So we say, the system takes 12 months to digest all of this, then we'll [inflation] be back to normal in 15 months. The last shock was terrible. Remember, [the mid-point of] our [inflation] target is 3 percent divided by 12 [months] so that's 0.25 month-on-month (MoM). There was only 2/9 BIS - Central bankers' speeches one month during those past 13 months where we [MoM inflation] were at 0.2 percent or 0.3 percent. In other words, for 12 out of 13 months, the monthly inflation, the monthon-month suggested inflation was much higher. The worst one [MoM inflation print] was in January 2023 [in comparison to December 2022 where it was] 1.7 percent in one month. Of course, if you adjust for seasonality, because January is usually a price adjustment month, it's something like 1.2 percent. But if that had continued for 12 months, that would have been 15 percent [annualized] inflation. That's why, as you can see, we are not taking any chances. We can make two mistakes: [the first is] act when we shouldn't have. The other is not act when we should have. This first mistake is easy; all you have to do is reverse your policy two, three, four months later. The second mistake is harder now that you have fallen behind and maybe lose your credibility. Above-target CPI items on the rise as price pressures broaden If you look at the next chart, you will again appreciate this even more. Of the more than 300 [total CPI items], 206 were above the [upper end of our inflation] target, above 4 percent. Only 109 [CPI items] were within target [2-4 percent] or below target [less than 2 percent]. In other words, inflation is now spreading from the sources of inflation to other sectors [in the economy]. And you can see this in two charts. The first one is the number of items and then distribution. The next one is when you look at inflation by breaking it down by food [inflation] versus non-food [inflation]. For instance, in January and February 2023, [MoM] inflation numbers were fairly quite good at 0 percent. In other words, the price index in February is exactly equal to the price index of January. However, it has really two parts: food [inflation] being negative because it was too high already at the time. Mahirap nang pamahalin yung sibuyas, napakamahal na eh, 'di ba? Sugar, mahirap nang pababain, napakamahal na, sobra. And non-food [inflation] was actually the 0.5 percent [on an MoM basis], annualized, it's 6.0 percent. That's the problem with the last [inflation] print [in February 2023]. It's [headline inflation] low but if you break it down into two components, the non-food part is now beginning to follow [the food part] with a lag. We got to do something about it. Private sector inflation expectations approach upper end of target band The other thing that worried us was, although inflation expectations of private analysts are now below 4 percent [the upper end of the inflation target], they are still high at 3.7 percent for 2024 and 3.6 percent for 2025. Their [inflation] forecast for 2023 is very close to ours [at the central bank]. So they're still believing, more or less, our forecasts. 3/9 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Nonetheless, forecasts are forecasts. And the question is what is the risk to the forecast? Right now, our assessment is there is a greater probability that it's [the forecast] wrong on the high side than it's wrong on the low side. There are many elements in the forecast that we think are more likely if it doesn't happen, the higher side is more likely to happen than the lower side. Forecasts point to signs of normalization Still, we have a relatively encouraging picture. We have revised our [inflation] forecast downwards. The average inflation as forecasted for this year is [down] from 6.1 to 6.0 percent. For next year, [the forecast is down] from 3.1 to 2.9 percent. If you look at the chart more closely, we will have below 4 percent inflation, if our forecasts are correct, by October [2023]. Then, we'll be back to normal inflation for the rest of the year next year. But of course, I think it was Yogi Berra who said, "It's very hard to forecast, especially the future." Non-monetary interventions key to address demand-side pressures Now, of course, the non-monetary interventions remain key. This is where I have a lot of confidence. I think the President and the Cabinet are now really laser-focused on making sure that timely imports of food [come in]. They'll make sure that you no longer have a repeat [where] very, very expensive [CPI] items with a very low share of the budget accounted for such a big part of the inflation [drivers] because of humungous [price] changes. I already mentioned, sugar [prices] doubling year-on-year, and of course, sibuyas. If you get one that's small enough, it's expensive enough to be your earring. Fed actions: still relevant but less of a factor in decision-making as exchange rate stabilizes Of course, what the Fed does, though it's not very central to our inflation forecasting [at this time], is also quite important because the interest rate differential – the differential between the policy rates of the Fed – and the BSP, is getting narrower. The narrower it is, the weaker the peso [becomes]. And we [at the central bank] used not to care too much about that because the translation of exchange rate weakness to inflation is actually quite low. However, there's a finding that if the changes [in the exchange rate] are continuous and large, that's no longer true. In other words, if the exchange rate is up, down, up, down, up, down, the markets tend to ignore, but [if] it's always up, up, up, up, up, then they may now use that as an anchor for predicting inflation. That's why we care a little bit more about what the Fed does than we usually do. In other words, if the Fed does [adjusts their policy rate by] 75 bps, it's hard [for the BSP] to justify 0 bps. 4/9 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Foreign exchange pressures have dissipated, offering some relief Then, you can see the exchange rate. Of course, the picture is quite different. The peso before, as of October 2022, the year-to-date was actually 14 percent depreciation. In contrast, the year-to-date, that is from the end of December last year to the present, we're actually the most appreciated currency [in the region as of March 20, 2023]. So there's a little bit more time to relax. In other words, on the exchange rate front, we can now be more focused. Because the exchange rate is not a problem [at this time], the interest rate can now be the instrument that's fully focused on inflation. But the general rule in economic policy is like medicine: different pills for different illnesses. And you should not confuse them, right? If you have a headache and you take anti-diarrhea drugs, then you are in trouble, right? This picture tells us, "We're not as worried about what the Fed does. But, of course, if it's [the magnitude of the rate adjustment] very large, we have to take that into account." Sources of strength for the Philippine economy Now, what other things make us very strong? Of course, the usual answer: remittances; we continue to get [foreign] direct investments (FDIs); and of course, BPO remains strong. As a result, our forex (foreign exchange) reserves are actually more than adequate. If you're just looking at two bad years [where] the Philippines will go through two bad years, it's more than adequate [as cushion for external spillovers]. Of course, I'm married to a very religious woman. And she keeps telling me about Joseph's dream about seven fat cows and seven thin cows, which, once interpreted, means you can have seven very good years and seven very bad years. In that sense, our FX reserves are not really all that excessive. That's why, I was very vocal about protecting our forex reserves. The forex reserves of the BSP, an independent central bank, are an essential part of this independence. Examining the BSP's actions in comparison with other central banks If you look at this table, we are the biggest mover in terms of [cumulative adjustments in] the policy rate at 425 bps. But as I said, this is a bit exaggerated because we were starting from [a policy rate of] 200 bps [during the pandemic] which was not normal to begin with. And we were also the most aggressive in bringing down the policy rate because of the pandemic. You can also see that we are, more or less, very normal [similar to our peers] in terms of foreign exchange intervention. EV keeps telling me, 'Gov, wag mong gamitin ang "foreign exchange intervention". Ang tamang policy "foreign exchange market participation."' But if your participation is in 10 billion dollars, you're now the only dancer. The others are all on the other side. So you are intervening. 5/9 BIS - Central bankers' speeches To summarize, we adjust the policy rate with forward guidance so that you can predict what we will do and explain why we do what we do so that you can understand and predict better. And we, of course, allow the peso to be the shock absorber. Because, in some cases, the best way to control excessive imports is to encourage Filipinos to buy local. Of course, you can have movie stars say Buy Local. By the way, I have a shirt that said ' Buy Local' because it was designed by a Filipino but when I look underneath, it says Made in China. But it's still local because the guy who made all the profits is a local, not Calvin Klein. In addition to the use of forex reserves, we support national measures, which I am confident are already in place. The President himself chaired a meeting and was very concerned, and you know very well he understands [the situation]. Monetary settings remain conducive to growth Let me go now to why tight monetary policy is not as disruptive, as bad for economic growth as one would imagine because the pent-up demand caused by the pandemic is just so strong. Yung mga matagal nang hindi nakakalabas, hindi nakakakain, ano ba naman 'yung mas mataas na konti 'yung restaurant prices? 'Yung tatlong taon nang na postpone 'yung pagbili ng kotse. Bakit? Hindi naman magamit 'yung kotse, bakit ka bibili? Eh ngayon [with the mobility restrictions lifted], magagamit mo na 'yung kotse. And then, of course, international tourism is finally coming back. So these are the things why we are quite confident. In summary, our forex reserves, strong pent-up demand in the economy. I guess the fact that we are a very young economy is also a factor. Thrift banks: a picture of resilience The other third point, which I have to mention, is your own [the thrift banking industry's] balance sheets. I say your own because-your capital ratios are actually higher than commercial banks, and [the capitalization of] commercial banks are already high. So we have strong banks. This chart shows all the good things that we see about the balance sheets of the universal banks and the thrift banks. I have to say, of course, that the state of the thrift banking industry is a good one. Your [the thrift bank industry's] asset growth, loan growth, deposit growth, profit growth, and capital buffers [are all positive]. As I said, your [capitalization is] higher than the Philippine banking system. Liquidity buffer is not as high as the commercial banks but still quite high. And [while] you have higher NPL (non-performing loans) and lower coverage [compared to the Philippine banking system], you're still okay. Your balance sheet's still quite good. 6/9 BIS - Central bankers' speeches PH banks safe, sound, and prepared to withstand shocks from banking turmoil abroad When I'm asked the question, when you look at journalists, their questions lag. The first question is so direct, so literal, like 'Magkano ba exposure niyo sa mga bangko na 'yan na bumabagsak?' Very easy answer: reported exposures, zero. And the [Philippine] banks that have exposures, it's the funds they manage for their clients that are exposed. In other words, the client told them to invest. Therefore, it's not bank loss. So, that's the typical question I use to get. Over time, the questions became more sophisticated, 'Hindi ba 'yung source [of the collapse] sa Silicon Valley [Bank] ay pagtaas ng policy rate?' Ang sagot naman namin: the Philippines is different. We are not starting from a severe zero policy rate. Our banks are heavier on the portfolio side, the local portfolio side, and the security side. And on top of that, their placements in BSP are also quite large. So, if you take out the placements of BSP with the non-loan assets, the remaining share is only 30 percent. Finally- this is where being primitive [younger bond and capital markets] is an advantage because the US has such a developed bond market that they have 30-year bonds. So when the rates change, literally, the impact on the price is huge. To begin with, the hit [from recent global banking developments] is smaller and our banks are well-capitalized, well-managed, and well-governed. Give yourself a round of applause. And the exceptions, please leave the room. Banks lend support to domestic recovery Because of that, when we [the economy] did recover, the banks played a major role because they are able to lend. When mobility restrictions were lifted, the banks were there to lend. Of course, we do see that real estate loans are lagging behind, but maybe for the better, right? Because, that's always a question of financial stability, which is: did real estate overdo it? Because, historically, a lot of the crisis [occurs] because real estate prices kept rising, nobody defaults. Because all you had to do was sell what you bought. In other words, the quality of lending was never tested until prices dropped. In a sense, I do not necessarily see the slowdown in real estate lending as a bad thing. Maybe it's a correction. As you can see the leading borrowers are information and communication; real estate is large but in terms of growth rate, it's not growing very fast, in fact, it's probably declining now; and the last one would be electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply. Despite lending more, banks have maintained asset quality On top of that, banks have very high NPL coverage. Their coverage of provisions is very high, NPL coverage relative to loans. Low NPL [at 3.3 percent], high coverage at 106.3 percent. 7/9 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Spillovers appear limited So far, we are not seeing much spillovers. For instance, if you look at credit spreads, it has not increased. By the way, I always remember, this one will never be outside of my mind. When I was in NEDA, the spread [between the Philippine and US rates on ten-year dollar government bonds] was 600 bps for the sovereign. Can you imagine what the spread was for everyone else? Not only do banks not have any material exposure to the failed institutions [in the US and Europe], the balance sheets of our banks are quite strong and their losses from the rising policy rate are not as high as in the United States where the starting yields were much lower and the maturity structure much longer. So, again, I would say that the Philippine banking system is safe and sound. We have shown resilience through the pandemic and we continue to be strong in the face of the ongoing turbulence in the global markets. Digitalization puts third pillar on overdrive Finally, on the last pillar. [The automated clearing houses] PesoNet and InstaPay are improving everything. Of course, our dream is even [with] the tricycle driver, you can use your phone to pay. Of course, the most extreme case, I have never seen this but my friends who have been to China tell me that even the beggar has a QR code. We don't have to go that far. In addition, the BSP has put up other projects that make this [payments digitalization] even better, like person-to-merchant (P2M) payments and QR payments that are person-to-person (P2P). We are working with the banking industry to make fees on small payments zero. Kasi magbabayad ka lang ng trenta pesos, ang fee mo P15. Hindi pwede, no? We're still figuring out how to do that. The most extreme is we will be the majority owners of the [payment] rails. Therefore, we will purposely decide what are these "missionary things". The other option is that we just work together and say, 'Basta maliit 'yung payment, libre na.' I think we're getting there. I'm sure we as a country, especially you as an industry and we as a regulator have nothing but successful experience working together. Even there, I'm quite optimistic. Closing messages I will end by saying that BSP stands ready to bring back inflation to a target-consistent path. Thank God, your [the banks'] strong balance sheet, our high FX reserves, and a strong economy allow us to be laser-focused when it comes to [adjusting the] policy rate on 8/9 BIS - Central bankers' speeches inflation. We will do everything in our power so that inflation next year will be below 4 percent. In fact, I said best-case scenario, that [normalization] will be obvious already by the year-on-year numbers for November and December. By the way, our forecast can be wrong on the early side or the late side. It could happen, that [normalization] actually happens this August or September [2023] or it could also happen in January next year or February next year. The banking system, as well as the thrift banks, is sound, stable, and supportive of both strong and inclusive economic growth. The BSP and the Philippines have made significant strides in achieving large use of digital payments in many transactions, what we call the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap. We also remain steadfast in providing an enabling regulatory landscape. I actually give thanks to BSPers who are here, including those, of course, who are not here. Because most of the people I see are from FSS [Financial Supervision Sector]. That's the department right now I love the most. Of course, I say the same thing when I'm in front of MES [Monetary and Economics Sector] people. And I say the same thing when I'm in front of the payments people. The BSP commends the thrift banking industry for being a strong partner in reinforcing good governance and leveling expectations among banks of the best practices and following BSP issuances as well as providing training and capacity-building programs and offering avenues to foster exchange of ideas. Maraming, maraming salamat sa inyo. 9/9 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Fitch Ratings Annual Sovereign Review Joint Economic Team Meeting, Manila, 7 March 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Central bank independence and fiscal prudence hallmarks of Philippine economic development Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Fitch Ratings Annual Sovereign Review Joint Economic Team Meeting, Manila, 7 March 2023. *** Let me start by saying that the Philippine central bank is an independent central bank. And this is actually embedded in our Constitution. Of course, our independence has to do with our tools. The government sets the preference between growth and inflation. The government actually sets the inflation target, but it does not tell us [at the central bank] how to do [achieve] it. Our two other mandates are financial stability and the payments system. On the second one, it is a very simple approach: the greater risk a bank takes, the more capital it has to put up. If they [the bank] are in trouble, the [bank] owners lose their money-not the public [depositors' money]-and it has worked very well so far. I will talk very little about the third one, but the importance of that is digitalization. First pillar in focus: Preserving price stability in a challenging environment Now, my most important topic for you is inflation. We are an inflation-targeting central bank. Our inflation target is 2.0 to 4.0 percent. We missed the target last year, and we will miss it again this year. But we can easily explain to the public that that [elevated inflation] is largely due to supply shocks. Incidentally, when you look at the [inflation figures in the] past 12 months or so [since January 2022], there were only three months (February 2022, December 2022, and February 2023) when the month-on-month (m-o-m) change [in inflation] was lower than 0.4 percent. Of course, 0.4 percent [m-o-m inflation] is about 5.0 percent [once] annualized. So, you can see that the supply shocks this year were quite unusual. Indeed, there is only one month (February 2023) when the m-o-m change [in inflation] was lower than 0.3 percent, which is the high end of our target [range]. By the way, that month is this month (February 2023)-zero. Of course, seasonally adjusted, [zero percent inflation on an m-o-m basis is] about 0.3 percent. Of course, an optimistic person would say, "Finally, the supply shocks have ended, and we are on a target-consistent [inflation] path." And that, indeed, is our forecast. [Headline inflation slowing] from 8.7 percent in January to 8.6 percent this month [February] is a big thing because the m-o-m [change] is zero. What was really shocking was the January [m-o-m inflation] numbers-1.7 percent in just one month. Facing supply pressures of domestic and international origins 1/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches The causes of supply shocks are varied. They started with the [Ukraine-Russia] war [that led to] expensive fertilizer, expensive oil. All of those things are fading now. What we have is very unusual [inflation]: Things that are small in the budget of a typical consumer are the main drivers of inflation, like onions and sugar. The problem there, especially in the case of sugar, is there were months when price increases were 5.0 percent in just one month. And there were periods when year-on-year [inflation] was at 100 percent, largely because of protectionism and the fact that a bureaucracy [that is] very, very protective of the sugar industry determines how much should be imported. The other one [domestic driver of inflation] is [the price of] onions. We are talking of 50 percent [price] increases because of the weather, the virus killing pigs [swine flu]-in some cases, we had to kill the pigs. In other words, when it comes to bad luck, when it rains, it pours. Year-end inflation seen to settle within target Now, the last month [m-o-m inflation figures]-if that is a good predictor of the future-had a zero [percent] increase in prices from January to February. If you adjust for seasonality-because January [inflation] is usually higher than February, other things being equal-the increase is about 0.3 percent. Our main forecast is by November or December this year, headline inflation-which is essentially the price index [this year], divided by the price index 12 months ago-will be back to below 4.0 percent, and it will be close to 3.0 percent by next year. Maximizing expanded toolkit: Adjusting the policy rate and managing the exchange rate Now, what did we [at the central bank] do? It is quite simple: We raised rates. The other one is, we are also an exchange rate-managing central bank. If you look at our record, we are able to build our foreign exchange (forex) reserves when the peso is strong. That is why our forex reserves went from US$45 billion to almost a hundred billion dollars between 2008 to 2012. On the other hand, we can allow the peso to depreciate if that is part of market fundamentals. Looking to history as guide My point is, we are quite confident that we are already on a target-consistent path of inflation. If you count the number of months where we are [inflation was] above target, in the past, the longest [streak] was 15 months. In this particular case, as I said, we were hit by a really large and long wave of supply shocks. In the last 12 months, everything was 0.4 percent [in terms of m-o-m inflation] or higher. There were months [when m-o-m inflation was] of 0.8 percent or 1.0 percent and, as I said, January [m-o-m inflation] was really terrible at 1.7 percent. 2/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Indeed, when you look at every month when inflation is high, you can actually point at exactly what products [items in the consumer price index] caused it. This time, we think that we will break our record: [It may take] 19 or 20 months of inflation being abovetarget from the previous record of 15 months. Policy settings remain reasonable Now, is [a policy rate of] 6.0 percent a high or low rate? Well, if you look at the current inflation, it looks low, right? [Headline] inflation is 8.7 percent [in January]. However, relative to our forecasts, it is a reasonable one. Our forecast is that by November or December, we will [inflation] be below 4.0 percent. The reality is that the current policy setting is reasonable-not too tight, not too loose monetary policy. Part of the [reason behind elevated] inflation is due to demand. The reason is, we were all surprised by the 7.6 percent [full-year gross domestic product (GDP)] growth [in 2022]. We could see that in rentals [inflation]. Restaurants [inflation] is a mix of food [inflation] and revenge eating. In that respect, we are quite confident that we will be back to target. If not, then this is the first time that we [inflation] will be above target for longer than 15 months. We already know that we will be above target for more than 15 months. But I will be very, very surprised if it is longer than 20 [months]. On the current account and the exchange rate As to the current account, we forecast that it would be about a deficit of US$19.9 billion. Now, what is covering it [the deficit]? Thus far, we do receive a bit of foreign direct investments and quite a bit of portfolio flows. Since we have US$98.2 billion in forex reserves, the likelihood that it [forex reserves] will fall by more than 10 [billion dollars] this year is actually very high. And, also, given our behavior [at the central bank], if we think that the exchange rate is fundamentally misaligned, we will allow it [the currency] to depreciate and not defend what cannot be defended. Responsible fiscal management: A delicate balance I will stop here, but you asked a question. What happens if growth is lower than expected? Of course, there is a plus and a negative side. The plus side, ironically, is, I think, given the current conditions-a stronger peso-then, the current account deficit will be smaller. Because imports grow faster than the economy-and we want it to grow faster because our imports are largely capital goods and raw materials. Low growth will mean a stronger peso, but it will also mean lower revenues. On the whole, that will mean the deficit will be larger, other things being equal. When you look at the history of this country, it has made adjustments when necessary. We had so many tax reforms. We increased value-added tax (VAT) from 10 percent to 3/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches 12 percent. Electricity and fuel used to not be covered under VAT, but now they are covered by VAT. But exactly how our country will respond to growth that is lower than usual, of course, cannot be predicted. What I can tell you is the history of the country [shows that], somehow, after all the debates, we will reach an agreement that we cannot afford to spend money that is not there, that it is not good to be irresponsible fiscally. It clearly becomes a choice between what is necessary: cutting spending or raising taxes. There were times when it was clear that increasing taxes was better because that meant more for infrastructure spending. I think, politically, that that is the under-driver because we are all aware that we are way behind in infrastructure. We will seek other ways to finance infrastructure if necessary. When the two of us [referring to Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno] were first in government, the spread [between the Philippine and United States rates on 10-year dollar government bonds] was 600 basis points. There are enough adults in this room, in this country, to know how bad that situation is. So, we [in the government] will eventually get consensus [on how to balance trade-offs between cutting spending or raising taxes in response to lower-than-expected growth]. I think, over time, even as we debate among ourselves, we will gravitate toward common sense. 4/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Economic Briefing, Washington DC, 11 April 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: View from Manila - outlook for 2023 and 2024 Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Economic Briefing, Washington DC, 11 April 2023. *** Friends of the Philippines, ladies, and gentlemen, as they say in the Philippines, magandang umaga. I will start by saying that the Philippine Constitution required the central bank to be an independent central bank. Of course, it took three or four years to pass a law after the Constitution was written to put that law down more precisely. The most important feature of that [law] is only one member of the Cabinet is a member of the Monetary Board (MB). The rest are people, like me, who have a fixed tenure, and the others are drawn from the private sector. Sometimes, the [representatives from the] private sector are former bankers-like my friend here, [MB Member] Tony Abacan, who was the former president of Metrobank. And, sometimes, they get academics, like me, who do not understand banking but eventually learn after being there for nearly 12 years. BSP's three pillars: guiding principles of central banking Our mandates, or our so-called three pillars, are price stability; financial stability; and a safe, secure, and efficient payments and settlements system. On the payments and settlements system: transforming the way governments, businesses, and households pay By the way, the third one [pillar] used to be boring. We print money and [provide] clearing [and settlement services]. Now, it is more exciting because-together with the government-we are promoting digital payments. Of course, the goal is that tax payments will be done digitally. And one vision that we have-that I share with [Finance] Secretary [Benjamin] Diokno-is when the Philippines imports goods, the customs duties are already computed properly while the ship is halfway to the Philippines. So, no more negotiations. Things become faster out of the port, right? So, all the payments to the government will also be easily tracked, including payments to local governments. This is getting very exciting. In addition, of course, we want more and more people to have formal bank accounts, and that a lot of payments will be done digitally. That is exactly what is happening right now. We have [automated clearing houses], one is called InstaPay, and a bigger and bigger part of the payments are now digital. And then, we have PESONet, which is the equivalent of checks but is also electronic. So, we are moving fast on the digital side. On financial stability: regulators work in tandem 1/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Now, let me go back to the second one-financial stability. Clearly, we do not regulate the stock market. We do not regulate the issuance of private bonds. We do not regulate insurance. Financial stability is done by a committee chaired by me, and the other members of the committee are the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the chairman of the Insurance Commission. On price stability: month-on-month inflation figures paint an encouraging picture [Let us go] back to price stability. Well, if you look at that next picture, it seems alarming, right? Headline inflation is 8.6 percent [in February 2023], which eventually fell to 7.6 [percent in March]. If you take out the extreme price changes-what you would call core inflation-it is also quite high [at 8.0 percent in March]. But to me, the numbers that mean a lot more are the little bars below [month-on-month (m-o-m) inflation]. If you multiply that by 12, that is the implied inflation rate for the year if everything is the same. For instance, that first figure there, 0.9 percent [m-o-m inflation] in March 2022, that is terrible. That is 0.9 percent times 12 [months]. If that had continued for 12 months, the implied inflation is more than 10 percent. On the other hand, if you look at the other end, there are two 0.3 percent [m-o-m inflation prints] there [in December 2022 and February 2023]. The first 0.3 percent [in December 2022], we celebrated too early and said, "Oh, we are there already!" 0.3 percent times 12 [months] is 3.6 percent [in annualized inflation, which is well within the inflation target band]. And then, we got hit by 1.0 percent [in January 2023], which is 12 percent [once annualized], right? Of course, we are now seeing what, we think, will really be the trend next time, which is 0.3 percent from January to February [2023] and zero inflation from February to March. We think we are on our way toward our [inflation] target of 2.0 percent to 4.0 percent. And that is what is shown in the next chart. Inflation forecasts may be revised downwards but subject to global forces For the [current] year, of course, it is impossible to hit 4.0 percent [inflation target]. We will need negative inflation [during] the remaining part of the year to hit the 4.0 percent. By the way, we are revising this [forecast] with the newer numbers. [2023 full-year] inflation will probably be around below 6.0 percent in the revised numbers. But, as you can see, for 2024, we are confident that we are going to be very close to the midpoint of our target [at 3.0 percent]. Of course, a lot of things can happen. Historically, when there was global deflation, inflation was actually below 2.0 percent for two years. Of course, nobody complained [then]. 2/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches The point is, global forces can actually be the main driver of [domestic] inflation, and we have already experienced importing globally low prices. Now, of course, we are seeing the other side. We are probably importing high inflation globally. Private sector inflation forecasts converging with the central bank's, reflecting inflation-targeting credibility At any rate, the private sector forecasts [of inflation] are, more or less, very close to ours, except that [these] are slightly higher than ours for 2024 and 2025. [For 2023], the private sector says [that inflation will be] 3.7 percent; we [at the central bank] say around 3.0 percent. By the way, this usually happens. The private sector eventually adjusts its forecast with a one or two-month lag from ours. I think this shows you how credible the central bank is [at inflation targeting]. It can make mistakes, just like any other central bank, but, clearly, it has been given the mandate and the powers to make sure that when there is inflation, it is not due to excess demand. It is not due to the fact that the central bank is printing money to finance the government. In fact, when you look at the rise of our balance sheet, it is largely because we purchased foreign exchange. The only time we purchased Philippine government bonds was because of COVID. Fed actions: always relevant but less of a concern in policy-making Of course, we are affected by what happens with the Fed [United States (US) Federal Reserve]. But, in general, our inflation policy is largely driven by Philippine inflation. What was unique about this year is that the US policy rate changes were so large-four 75 basis points (bps) [hikes] in a row-to the point where the Philippine policy rate became too close to the US policy rate. And, as you know, since the dollar is the global currency, people would prefer the dollar to the peso if the policy rates are the same. We are now at that stage where we are watching that [differential]. We want to make sure that our policy rate is not lower and should be around 1.0 to 1.25 percentage points higher than the Fed's. That is what the markets are saying. And, as shown in the next slide, when you have very, very narrow differentials between the Fed policy rate and ours, you have a weak peso. As you can see, it [the peso] has appreciated lately. Taking decisive monetary action And one of the reasons [behind the appreciation] is we have acted very aggressively. We increased the policy rate from 200 bps to 425 bps, more than any central bank in Asia. The only central bank that comes close is South Korea. Now, we are probably near the end [of our tightening cycle]. We are probably [considering] pausing at the next meeting because the [m-o-m] inflation prints are very good. If April turns out to be another very low inflation month-so, that is three good points in a row-then we are in a position to pause. 3/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches How the central bank creates the conditions conducive to growth and supports economic development Let me wrap up and say, we [at the central bank] use all our powers, and we have enough of them to make sure that we support our three pillars. This has been very good for us but also quite good for the Philippine government itself. And we are very, very fortunate that every Finance Secretary that the Philippines has ever had-that I can remember-has always been very fiscally responsible because they know that they can finance a big part of the debt of the government by issuing pesodenominated bonds. Indeed, around 80 percent of our debt is domestic debt, and much of that is longer than two years. In summary, what you have is the financial and banking conditions of the Philippines that are consistent with long-term growth. No shortcuts. No boom and bust. We try to keep growth as steady as possible and to make sure that the banks are strong so that the economy will be supported by price stability, financial stability, and the payment system that we support. Thank you very much. 4/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the ASEAN High-Level Seminar on Innovative Strategy to Further Enhance Financial Inclusion, Bali, 27 March 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Within reach - how digitalization boosts financial inclusion in the Philippines Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the ASEAN High-Level Seminar on Innovative Strategy to Further Enhance Financial Inclusion, Bali, 27 March 2023. *** To guests, financial inclusion champions, ladies, and gentlemen, selamat siang. The first thing I would like to do is thank [Bank Indonesia] Governor Perry [Warjiyo], our Indonesian host, for hosting such a wonderful event. On behalf of the Philippines' central bank, thank you for inviting me to share the Philippine experience in digital technologies to reinforce financial inclusion-a topic very important to us at the central bank, especially the Monetary Board. In a sense, we are a very traditional central bank that is very concerned about [our three pillars of] price stability-of course, right now, it is always putting us in the headlines because we are missing the [inflation] targets; financial stability; and, of course, a safe and efficient payments system. But with all of these strong three pillars, it will be a pity if it is not inclusive. So, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has made financial inclusion a very important part of its strategic objectives for the next so many years. Expanding the mantle of financial inclusion through digital tools As you might have already heard, our target is to increase the proportion of people who are included in the financial system-that is, they have a formal bank account or electronic wallet-to 70 percent this year. The other way to put it is, we want to reduce the number of [financially] excluded people to below 30 percent [at the ASEAN level]. By the way, it [the financial exclusion level in the Philippines] was 71 percent in 2019. The 2021 number is now at 44 percent. We are certain that the 2023 numbers are much lower, and we are on our way toward 30 percent or lower. We are actively working to bring the figure down, and COVID sped up the process [of harnessing digitalization to expand financial inclusion]-but, I think, there is no stopping us. Of course, there are limits because of the infrastructure itself. A big part of the population has no access to even a cellphone signal in some cases. So, we have to find other ways of reaching them. E-money [electronic money] has played a big role [in onboarding Filipinos to the formal financial system]. E-money accounts grew to 36 percent in 2021 [from 8.0 percent in 2019], much higher now. Promoting strong consumer protection mechanisms 1/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches In the aspect of consumer protection and fraud, fortunately, we were finally able to pass a law that requires every prepaid SIM [subscriber identity module] card to have a verified ID [identification]. By the way, I tried it myself. I bought a SIM card, uploaded my ID, which was a National ID, and took a selfie. It took them only three days to send me a text [message] saying, "You have been verified." Maybe they found out that I was the central bank governor; that is why they were fast. I do not know, but I do not think so. Then, I opened [an ewallet account]-I will not say what kind, whether it is GCash or it is Maya-and was able to do so very quickly. By the way, I am also the Chairman of the Anti-Money Laundering Council, and what we found was that before we did this-making sure that every SIM card has a unique identity of the individual with the right name, with the retina, and the fingerprint-we actually found out that there was one person owning 1,000 SIM cards [that was] actually operating illegal gambling. Finally, because of all these problems, Congress moved and said, "From now on, no verification of identity, your SIM card will expire in two months." So, it is working. Since the number of people who use their mobile phones [for digital payments] has increased significantly, that is why we are actually quite confident that we will be able to succeed if we can improve the physical infrastructure-maybe we can even bring it [the proportion of Filipino adults that are financially excluded] below 30 percent. Taking a whole-of-government approach to financial inclusion From the point of view of government, it [financial inclusion] is a whole-of-government approach. The National Strategy for Financial Inclusion is not just the central bank's [initiative]; it is the [initiative of the] entire government. Addressing the infrastructure problem As I already alluded to, there are issues, of course. You have the digital telecoms [telecommunications] divide, and that has to be addressed. [With] what we are doing now, satellite services will no longer be needed to be part of telecoms franchises. Some areas are underserved. Any entrepreneur would come up and put up a VSAT [very small aperture terminal] so that they can increase access to the internet in those places that are underserved. The birth of the BSP's Consumer Protection and Market Conduct Office (CPMCO) In addition, we are creating an enabling regulatory environment, and consumer protection is one of them. 2/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Fortunately, we were able to pass a law that literally turned an office [the CPMCO] in the central bank into a court-the decisions of which can be challenged only at the Court of Appeals, just one level below the Supreme Court. Of course, because of these powers, it [the office] can force very fast mediation, but we hope we never get there, [to the point] where somebody from the central bank acts like a judge and makes a ruling, whether who is at fault and the extent to which the consumer indicates the bank is wrong. We also have a chatbot where we can deal with consumer concerns in real-time via a web chat on the BSP website, via messenger or Facebook, and via SMS [short message service] or text. Strengthening digital financial literacy Of course, we have programs that are trying to improve financial literacy. My own experience with it is, sometimes, financial literacy problems are also arithmetic problems. Sometimes, some people could not solve very simple arithmetic problems, like computing interest. So, I suppose, a big part of financial literacy has to start from grade school. Boosting responsible innovation We are also into using a framework of digital banks, where digital banks are not allowed to have more than one branch so they will be forced to be really digital. We opened up six [digital banks]. The reason we capped it at six is that we are actually quite afraid that if there are too many, some of them might actually fall by the wayside, and consumers may lose their trust [in the financial system], and our ability to regulate them may actually be reduced. Finally, we are also moving toward an Open Finance Framework. That might take some time, but the entire point is that the consumer owns the data, and it is up to him whether somebody could see it or not. By the way, if you have a very good borrower, the tendency of the bank is to keep that a secret because it prevents you from going to another bank. Now, [open finance promises that the] consumer can actually force the bank to share the data with a competing bank. Paleng-QR: a high-impact use case of digital finance We are doing QR [quick response code payments], where even wet markets, drivers, or pedicabs can receive payments through the QR system. We call it "Paleng-QR." " Palengke" is the Mexican term for "market." Most people thought that "palengke" was Spanish, but it is really Mexican because of our history with Mexico. We have already done work with 11 local governments and counting [that issued local ordinances in support of the program]. I physically visited four of the [Paleng-QR Ph] launches. The feedback is very good, but one thing we noticed is that the people in the wet market say, "It is very hard because we are buying vegetables from farmers who do 3/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches not have access to QR codes." So, they still have to go back to their banks to withdraw cash so they can pay the farmers. As you can see, these are the things that have to be addressed because the system becomes less efficient if there are excluded people. And the last mile, like paying the farmer, still has to be [paid via] cash. So, there is so much progress that still has to be done. Moving forward as a region In closing, we will continue to work closely with our ASEAN counterparts to achieve our financial inclusion goals. As I already mentioned, at the regional level, our cooperative arrangements in ASEAN place us in a unique position to engage in knowledge and experience-sharing in digital financial inclusion. Let us capitalize on each other's knowledge and cooperate so that we can have a financially inclusive ASEAN for the benefit of all our people. Thank you very much for your attention. Maraming salamat. 4/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the meeting with Fitch Ratings at the sidelines of the 2023 International Monetary Fund–World Bank Spring Meetings, Washington DC, 11 April 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Preserving price and financial stability in the Philippines Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the meeting with Fitch Ratings at the sidelines of the 2023 International Monetary Fund–World Bank Spring Meetings, Washington DC, 11 April 2023. *** The headline [inflation] numbers are high. Even the core [inflation] numbers are high. But what must be seen is [inflation] in relation to month-on-month (m-o-m) changes. Unless there are new shocks, we are already moving toward an inflation path of below 4.0 percent by October or November [2023]. The reason for this is that the price index in March [2023] is actually slightly lower than the price index in January. One way to look at it is: Year-on-year [inflation] is the average of 12 m-o-m [inflation prints]. And if you have 10 very high [months of elevated inflation] and two [months of] very low [inflation], as soon as the higher months are bumped off by two months [of within-target inflation], then the inflation number is going back very quickly to below 4.0 percent [which is the upper end of the inflation target]. That is why we are confident that, in the absence of new shocks, average inflation will be within-target, possibly below 3.0 percent. Supply-side pressures ease with the relaxation of import restrictions; looking to rice as a lesson Because of base effects, because of very high inflation in January 2023, [m-o-m inflation for] last January was terrible. Without adjusting for seasonality, the January 2023 price index was 1.7 percent higher than December 2022. Anything terrible can happen [that can drive inflation, such as] Swine flu, meat shortage, [as well as increases on the prices of] vegetables, fruits, and sugar-all those little things. What is notable is that rice is not there [in the items driving inflation]. The reason rice is not there is that the restrictions on imports were replaced with tariffs. In a sense, what caused the [elevated] inflation was that the government was restraining imports. But that is now being addressed. There was a survey [which revealed] that the issue that most people are concerned about is inflation. In other words, all of these are working to relax the speed of the importation process. The President is already on this. That is why I am quite confident that we will be back to normal inflation next year. No tradeoffs between price and financial stability 1/2 BIS - Central bankers' speeches The other reason that this is the case is that we [at the central bank] essentially prevented knock-on effects from supply shocks because we were aggressive. We increased the policy rate from 200 basis points (bps) to 625 bps in just nine months. We were able to do that because we knew that bank balance sheets could take it [the impact of the rate hikes]. With high policy rates-while they [the banks] could have [incur] losses on their holdings of government securities-but with the higher interest rates, they earn more money. On the whole, because the banks have very strong balance sheets, financial stability was never a constraint in our use of the policy rate to quell inflation. On the narrowing interest rate differential and the weakening exchange rate The other reason we did that [raise the policy rate] is, as the US [United States] increased its policy rate, its policy rate became very close to ours. If you asked people a hypothetical question, "If the interest rate on the peso instrument is the same as the interest rate on a dollar instrument, which instrument would you choose?" Even Filipinos would choose the dollar because of all the advantages of the king dollar. That is the other reason. The differential between our policy rate and the US policy rate, if it narrowed too much, could cause a very large fall in the peso. However, this [depreciation] is also partly reflecting fundamentals since the current account deficit increased, and the deprecation of the peso last year was clearly not good for trade numbers. As foreign exchange pressures wane, the central bank can dedicate full resources and focus on fighting inflation It [the depreciation] was due to the differential and the fact that people look at the exchange rate and say, "All the corporations that borrow abroad wanted to buy their dollar needs for debt servicing." So, the moment we give [delivered] the 425 bps [in cumulative] policy rate increase, the peso appreciated. After a long series of policy rate adjustments, year-to-date [from 1 January to 4 April 2023], the peso actually appreciated by 2.0 percent. In other words, the exchange rate is no longer adding to the inflation problem. That is the situation. The policy rate [adjustment] addressed two issues: First, it prevented the knock-on effects of supply shocks from spreading too much. Second, it made the peso stronger, which also significantly reduced inflationary expectations. And, as I said, we did it without any risk that financial stability is reduced. 2/2 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 23rd Financial Stability Board – Regional Consultative Group for Asia meeting, Mactan, 16 May 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Approaching and taking stock of systemic risk issues from a regional perspective Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 23rd Financial Stability Board – Regional Consultative Group for Asia Meeting, Mactan, 16 May 2023. *** The headline [inflation] numbers are high. Even the core [inflation] numbers are high. But what must be seen is [inflation] in relation to month-on-month (m-o-m) changes. Unless there are new shocks, we are already moving toward an inflation path of below 4.0 percent by October or November [2023]. A very pleasant morning to all of you. I warmly welcome you here in Mactan, Cebu to the 23rd meeting of the RCGA [Regional Consultative Group for Asia]. Today's RCGA meeting comes at a very opportune time. Over the last three years, we have experienced shocks that are unprecedented in many respects. These have been trying times for financial authorities. In addition, market stakeholders have had to adapt to the same changing conditions. We often describe this in the context of a risk-on, risk-off [stance] or money is coming in or money is leaving. Here, perception and herd behavior matter, which is yet another layer of challenge to our jobs. But as we all try to navigate a path forward, the changing times also highlight the importance of us collaborating. Very few jurisdictions enjoy the status of driving global markets. Instead, many adjust to the spillovers that emanate from advanced economies and, of course, from shocks, like an epidemic and global shortages along the supply chains. The RCGA in a VUCA world This is where, I believe, the RCGA can have a role. It is always useful to have a central point from which emerging best practices can be discussed. This is exactly what the RCGs [regional consultative groups] can do. But beyond raising awareness, we also know that the world is volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA). This VUCA world, coupled with heightened interconnectedness, will be a perfect storm for shocks, spillovers, and systemic risks. The promise and limitations of regional decision making For Asia, collectively, we are poised to continue [to account for] the bulk of economic growth for the entire world. From my perspective, the key is [to make] the reference to Asia-although it is very, very hard to refer to it-as a single entity. But we, I think, can work together, and this diversity actually presents a lot of opportunities, just as it is fraught with challenges. 1/2 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Where all these put us is that we face a lot of interlinked uncertainties at both regional and global levels. These affect all of us. One can easily make the case that global disruptions require global solutions. But as any economist knows, the bigger the group, the harder it is for collective action to be rational. [We can refer to] the famous [Kenneth] Arrow impossibility theorem: "Individually rational people are not necessarily collectively rational." They prefer A to B, or B to C, and C to A. Welcome, all of you. I look forward to a very fruitful conference. Thank you for coming, and I hope you enjoy your stay here in Mactan. Let me turn the floor over to [Reserve Bank of India] Deputy Governor [Rajeshwar] Rao. 2/2 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 38th Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Environmental Scanning Exercise, Manila, 26 May 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Virtual assets and evolving approaches to regulation Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 38th Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Environmental Scanning Exercise, Manila, 26 May 2023. *** Members of the Monetary Board, resource speakers, colleagues, ladies, and gentlemen, magandang tanghali po. Welcome to the 38th BSP [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas] Environmental Scanning Exercise (ESE). Today's topic is "Virtual Assets in the Philippines." It is worth noting that although we are talking about virtual assets (VAs) in the Philippines, clearly, the value of VAs in the Philippines will be determined globally. Looking to lessons from government-initiated bans and nonmonetary currencies Indeed, [during] the conference in Cebu that the BSP hosted with the IMF [International Monetary Fund], a representative from India asked a very difficult question: "If these VAs are primarily designed to avoid and elude government, what should be the government's attitudes toward it?" The logical answer is "panic," right? But, at the same time, the experience of banning-let us say, in the case of alcohol-if we look at the history of the prohibition, [it] actually backfires. The [act of] banning itself turns the commodity under the control of the very people you do not like-criminals. The conclusion was [that] the regulation of VAs must follow a certain global standard. Countries all over the world must agree on how to deal with it. Note that we keep using [the term] "virtual assets," not "virtual currencies," because currency, they are not. They are so volatile that when prices are rising, nobody wants to use them [since people are holding them in anticipation of future gains]. On the other hand, when it [the price] is falling, nobody wants to accept it [as a medium of exchange]. I guess, for old graduate students like [Monetary Board Member (MBM)] Eli [Remolona] and me, it is nice to go back to the evolution of currencies without government. The usual reference point is the evolution of cigarettes as currency in prisoner-of-war camps. There are many lessons to be learned there. Why cigarettes, not milk or fruits? The answer is, it is hard to hold so many fruits in your pocket. Also, fruits and milk are not standardized. What happened was that cigarettes emerged as the currency of choice in the camps. But then, many problems came out later. A smoker knows a bad cigarette from a good one. So, he will keep the good cigarettes and trade the bad ones. 1/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches So, we expect that all these problems will happen as well to virtual currency. There are many competing ones, and even the ones that survive will have problems because of all these issues. The limits of decentralization: when should regulation step in? If the goal is to use them as stablecoins, clearly, that is banking. Because then, you are taking money-taking deposits and guaranteeing deposits to support the currency. Therefore, you should be treated like a bank and regulated like one. If you are issuing a stablecoin, maybe the requirement should be at least 50 percent of the assets that back it up should be very liquid assets. Maybe you should have a reserve requirement. Maybe you should have a liquidity coverage ratio, and so on and so forth. Therefore, this avoids the very purpose of why these currencies were created to begin with. For them to be useful and safe, they have to be regulated. I think that this is the story of FTX [failed cryptocurrency exchange]. Encouraging responsible and cautious innovation Nonetheless, we should be open to new developments, especially [in] a country [like ours] that is dependent on remittances. Therefore, we have to have an open mind. At the same time, as [MBM] Eli [Remolona] said, regulation should be a cautious one. We do not want to regulate without asking what the private players think and the role that they envision for virtual currencies. Are they for remittances? Are they for speculation? We are clearly, more likely to give [virtual asset service provider (VASP)] licenses to banks that already exist if, at all, there will be trading; if they will be allowed to trade in these virtual currencies. By the way, if virtual currencies were to replace gold-if you believe Google-the overall supply of gold is US$7.5 trillion globally. If this can displace just 13 percent of gold, then, at the very least, the value of VAs is US$1.0 trillion. Exactly which VA will be worth US$1.0 trillion, we actually do not know. The other question is one of consumer protection-the extent to which the government and the central bank must educate the public and say, "We are allowing this to happen, but these are very risky assets. You should not put in money that you really need for many important things." Ongoing dialogue between regulators and market players In this ESE, we would like to be updated on the adoption and usage of VAs in the Philippines. What exactly is happening on the ground? What are they being used for? To what extent should regulation apply? 2/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Right now, our view is [that] the moment VAs meet fiat currency or deposits, clearly, you have to be regulated. Exactly what the form of regulation will be is, of course, evolving. Our view is one of caution. When did we freeze the issuance of VASPs? About six months ago. Our view is a cautious one, but regulation should be open to potentially good uses. Therefore, if you ban it, then you are not in a position to move in that direction. We hope that we can gain some insights from our speakers. I hope that we can have a fruitful, balanced, and productive discussion ahead. As I already said, the central bank is open to it but very, very cautious. The more we learn, the more we can handle it better. Thank you very much, and I hope that it will be a very good afternoon and [an] interesting discussion. 3/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the FinTech Alliance.ph General Membership Meeting, Manila, 29 May 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: The current Philippine digital landscape - what's next beyond the digital payments transformation roadmap Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the FinTech Alliance.ph General Membership Meeting, Manila, 29 May 2023. *** It is a fantastic day. Good time to meet old friends that I have not seen for a long time. [FinTech Alliance President] Lito [Villanueva], members of FinTech Alliance.ph, colleagues from government, friends from the banking industry, digital champions, magandang umaga. I have just come from the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) where they inaugurated their new trading floor. Even the trading floor is a consequence of digitalization. PSE does not need it anymore because trades have shifted online. The point is, it [digitalization] will affect so many sectors, including the stock market, and it will affect the economy all over the place. The twin goals of the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap The industry is well aware of the targets under our Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap (DPTR) by this year. But what does our vision look like beyond 2023? Of course, we have our twin goals: [First,] more and more retail payments will be digital; our target is 50 percent of retail transactions will be digital. Second, 70 percent of Filipinos have or use a transaction account. By the way, there is a survey that we conducted on why people do not have [formal] accounts. Surprise, surprise, the biggest answer is: "I have no money." But there are other things other than that, which we [at the central bank] can address. Indeed, even that other one [concern] can be addressed by very, very targeted programs of the government. A good example is the Pantawid Pamilya[ng Pilipino Program (4Ps)], where poor families who keep their children in school to break the cycle of poverty get direct assistance from the government. Even in that particular case where people have no money, we really have good programs, like the 4Ps. Making good progress on digitalization; e-money as key enablers of higher account ownership Of course, we have made good progress [on account ownership]. [As of 2021,] 56 percent of adults own a formal account, equivalent to additional 22 million people onboarded [to the formal financial system]. This [progress] is impossible to imagine without e-money [electronic money]. I do not want to sound biased. So, I will say "GMaya," okay? By the way, I tried it [opening an e-wallet account] myself. I got a prepaid card, but I actually made a mistake. I have my national ID, but, by mistake, I uploaded my driver's 1/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches license. Yet they were able to find out that I am the same person. Of course, they also found out that I have another GCash account. By the way, I have a Maya account as well. I am making sure [that] I am neutral. I noticed that the two [e-wallet] companies have very, very different strategies. One decided to be bank-neutral, bank-agnostic. The other one decided to have [establish] a digital bank. I was told that one is targeting the consumers; the other is targeting merchants. This is the nice thing about competition, right? Everyone will have his or her approach, and let us see who will succeed. But one possibility is that both can succeed because they ended up keeping a bit [segment] of the market. At any rate, we are very happy that because of these [e-wallets], there are many more account holders using transaction accounts for their payment accounts. Then, more and more people are using PESONet instead of writing checks. But even there is a problem. Sometimes, even in the BSP [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas] when I am asking for reimbursement, they ask for a [paper] receipt. Now, of course, what will happen even in that direction is: There will be efforts to make sure that the payment system will actually provide a kind of [paperless] service as it is happening, I think, in the case of EgovPay. Exploring parallel regulatory initiatives alongside the DPTR: digital banks, open finance, regulatory sandbox, and Project CBDC Ph Of course, we have other things to be happy about. [We now have] six digital banks. Looking forward to the future, we also have the idea of an Open Finance Framework. Of course, the key to this is governance and privacy. This will feature an opt-out mechanism, which will allow consumers to withdraw or limit the scope of data that will be shared. At any rate, our approach [to innovation] is, of course, what we call the "regulatory sandbox." With our test-and-learn approach to innovation and with coordination and constant dialogue with the FinTech Alliance and other [industry] groups, we hope that we will get better and better at regulating innovation and pioneering technologies, without sacrificing controls and the structured environment where potential benefits and risks are clearly demonstrated and balanced. In addition, of course, we have Project CBDC [Central Bank Digital Currency], which, we think, has very little value added on the retail level. Of course, there are countries that are thinking the other way. I saw a documentary about China. Literally, there is a picture of the currency in your phone, including the serial number. When you make payments to somebody, that disappears and moves to this phone. Of course, that saves a lot of money in printing. But in countries that are so concerned about privacy, the government will actually know 2/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches more about you than your wife. In my case, that is not dangerous; there is nothing to know about me. But for many people, that [privacy issue] is a bit of a concern. So, all of those things have to be addressed. Harnessing regtech and suptech to build the digital capacity of regulators We must recognize that we, regulators and bank supervisors, have to catch up with rapidly-evolving technologies. In other words, even the way we regulate has to adapt to it [technology]. The best example of that is our ASTERisC*, [which stands for] Advance Sup[ervisory] Tech[nology] Engine for Risk-based Compliance. It is a tool that streamlines and automates regulatory supervision, reporting, and compliance. [In doing so,] the tie-up between the BSP and the banks becomes more efficient, precisely because it uses digital technology. We have other things, like the API-XML [Application Programming Interface-Extensible Markup Language] project, which involves the development of digital tools to improve the speed, quality, and comprehensiveness of regulatory reporting. In other words, the dream is: Every time a bank itself has an internal report that is relevant to regulation, which is sent to the BSP, we begin to know each bank better and better, and, hopefully, we become even better regulators than we are today. Of course, there is great importance in PhilSys [Philippine Identification System], which will enable consumers to have easier access and utilization of innovative and digital financial products and services. Expanding QR payments within and beyond ASEAN The adoption of the QR [quick response] standard [is also seen to help]. By the way, we are now talking about a QR standard that is, at the very least, parts of it are interoperable with the rest of Southeast Asia, beginning, of course, with Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. But lo and behold, I look at what GCash is doing, and they are already ahead on the cross-border [front]. If you have a GCash account, you can make remittance much easier using your phone. Of course, the goal is for a citizen of every ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] country-with his phone-to make a payment everywhere, at least, in the ASEAN5 and, eventually, the whole of ASEAN. I think, the ASEAN-5 target is, maybe, two to three years from now. Of course, Singaporeans will always say, "The use case, it has to be practical." Hopefully, of course, this will be profitable in at least several countries. Of course, our own goal within the Philippines is that we can make payments to tricycle drivers, sidewalk vendors, or even beggars using our cellphone. 3/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Many banks are very cooperative. Again, I will not say which bank because I might sound like a bank advertiser. One bank is saying, "No fees for transactions." We suggested 500. What they are doing is 1,000; no fees for anything below 1,000. But even amid digitalization push, cash will remain My own personal experience is that cash is faster [for certain transactions] because you have to take your phone out [with e-wallets]. Then, your GMaya has logged you out. So, you have to log in. If you put out cash, that is it. So, it is hard to beat cash. The point, though, is that, maybe, that is the difficult part from the point of view of the consumer. But from the point of view of the merchant, he has to do a lot more things if you pay cash. Indeed, what I remember when I was a graduate student, when I was paying rent, they refused to accept cash. The only payment they will accept from me-and this was a long time ago; many of you were not born yet-the only payment they will accept from me was a check. I am sure the merchants have the same problem when everybody is paying cash. I think, the contest will be on the merchants, [that is] how to encourage consumers not to use cash. Of course, they can give all sorts of incentives, like if you do this, you make this payment, they give you points and so on and so forth. I think, eventually, the [payments via] phone would start to dominate. What we see in the future, which we have probably already seen in some countries, like Norway and Sweden, where cash has been so marginalized but never total out [of the system]. The government had to say, "It is illegal to refuse cash." Of course, we are very far from that because there are many islands in the Philippines that do not have a cellphone signal. But in those economies that are highly modernized, [that is closer to reality]. By the way, in one economy I know, your traffic ticket fine is higher if your income is higher. That is how good the data system is. The theory there is, of course, very simple: A rich person will be discouraged less by a 50-dollar fine for violating traffic than a poor person. So, if you make the traffic fines proportional to income, it will be more effective. Can you imagine the data requirements to just issue the traffic tickets? In those countries, it is already happening. We may never get to that stage, but, clearly, in a big part of the economy, we are moving in that direction. My own vision for many parts of the country where people do not have cellphones or the [mobile] signal is terrible, cash will still be king. That is why our own forecast is that as the economy grows, demand for cash actually grows despite digitalization. Of course, this is a debate within the BSP itself: If we are moving to Clark, how big should the printing press be? One view is that there should be very small note print works because digitalization will reduce demand for cash. The other view is my view: As [e-money] transfers become easier, then the last-mile [transactions] in many places 4/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches will actually still be cash. Therefore, cash and digital payments are actually complementary to some extent. Therefore, the BSP plant in New Clark City should have sufficient notes printing capacity. Of course, I can be wrong. But my view is, you can make two errors: One is to have a small plant [built], and it turns out you need a big one. The other one is to have a big plant [built] rather than a small one. I felt that the second error is the least costly error. You can make two errors: not send your wife flowers on Valentine's day or insure yourself by ordering the flowers in advance. Every married person knows which error is more dangerous. Readying buffers in preparation for an uncertain future By the way, that is how I, personally, approach risk management: What are the consequences of the errors? Which error should we try to avoid by having buffers? Central banking is like that. For all we know, we may not need our forex [foreign exchange] reserves. For all we know, our forex reserves may be much larger than we really need. But since we do not know, we would have to build reserves and prepare for the worst. My favorite example is in the Bible, which is seven fat cows and seven lean cows. That was the dream of Joseph. Of course, that was just a saying. The business cycle can be as long as 14 years. Therefore, your needs could be bigger. Of course, if we have dreamt of two fat cows and two lean cows, it will be a very different business cycle, right? Fintechs as partners, collaborators in responsible digital innovation and development Let me now go back to you, our partners. Fintech [financial technology] players will be our collaborators and also major drivers of the digital shift. Of course, what I know from experience is that, often, there are industries where the current players may not be the dominant future players. What is important, of course, is regardless of who is doing it in the end, it is all better for the economy and the consumers. In that kind of uncertain world, the BSP will remain supportive of responsible digital financial innovations. While we do not dismiss the risks, I would rather emphasize all the good things that can happen. Of course, there is so much money [to be made] from scamming and cheating. We must always cooperate. We must have campaigns. With that, I thank you for inviting me to your general membership meeting. I look forward to future collaboration with FinTech Alliance.ph. Maraming salamat po, at mabuhay po tayong lahat. 5/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Opening remarks by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for 3rd BSP International Research Fair, Manila, 13 June 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Navigating through the headwinds - the way ahead for central banks Opening remarks by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), for 3rd BSP International Research Fair, Manila, 13 June 2023. *** To our guests, especially guests from abroad, colleagues, ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the 3rd BSP International Research Fair. I am glad to see friends and familiar faces today. This is the first time that we are holding this Research Fair in person after virtual fairs in 2021 and 2022. Over the next two conference days, I hope you take home valuable lessons but also find the time to reconnect with old friends and make new connections. Now, this year's theme is timely, "Navigating through the headwinds: the way ahead for central banks." As we make our way out of the pandemic, how can central banks contribute to the difficult project of rebuilding? The importance of central bank-run research academies in contributing to economic and financial body of knowledge As a long-time student of economics, I have always been disappointed in both macroeconomic courses and monetary economics courses because the [section discussing] banks inside them are all black boxes. I have always thought that research done in central banks could contribute a lot to [a better] understanding [of] the macroeconomy by putting the banks front and center of the model. The reason, of course, is a lot of data on banks that we have are confidential. If you are working inside the central bank, you can go to jail for violating confidentiality [rules]. You are allowed to see the data [on banks but] when your [research] paper comes out, nothing confidential [about the banks] is disclosed. But when you are writing the paper, all of that confidential stuff would have guided the paper. That is one reason we wanted to strengthen our research academy. The other reason is the research academy will also work closely with universities. I am so glad to see that this is exactly what is happening. We have [graduate-level] papers from UP, La Salle, Ateneo and even undergraduate papers, which I think is very good for us in the long run. All I want to say is that I think, a strong research academy or even a stronger one in the future will be good for the Philippine central bank. Extending unprecedented assistance to support the economy in crisis mode 1/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Let me go back to the topic of navigating through the headwinds, the way ahead for central banks. For us to look to the future, it is important to look at where we came from. Let me provide some context on the Philippine central bank's actions during the pandemic. [First], we reduced the policy rate to 2.0 percent. To put that in context, at that time, our inflation forecast was at least 3.0 percent so we were actually going into negative interest rate territory. Number two, we bought P1 trillion worth of government securities. Because of COVID, banks were fleeing to cash. To our great credit as an inflation-targeting central bank, they are fleeing to pesos, not to dollars. Unfortunately, the fall in bond prices would have resulted in very high market interest rates so we [at the central bank] ended up buying 1 trillion worth of government securities relative to our balance sheet of [about] 5 trilion [prior to the pandemic].1 In addition, we lent money to the government – directly and as approved by Congress. It was a very transparent [form of] assistance from the central bank to the government. Of course, we thought that every time we do something like this, something we have never done before, we must have an exit plan. Our [initial] exit plan was a beautiful one: as soon as the economic conditions improve, [we will implement] a long series of 25 basis points (bps) increases, bringing back to policy rate to 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent. But as they say, it is very hard to predict, especially the future. What happened, instead [of our exit plan], is that global developments--the Ukraine war, the abrupt pivot of the Fed--and of course, very high inflation [changed our plans]. For 2022, when you look at seasonally adjusted month-on-month (MoM) inflation, only one month [December 2022] is it is consistent with the target at 0.3 percent, which translates to 3.6 percent [once annualized]. To make matters worse, [at] the beginning of 2023 had a huge supply shock, [resulting in] a 1.0 percent increase in seasonally adjusted MoM inflation [for January 2023]. Taking decisive action to bring inflation back to target – from the monetary and national government fronts As a result, we have increased the policy rate by [a cumulative] 425 bps [as of March 2023]. We sold about 7.0 percent of our forex (foreign exchange) reserves [from end-2021 to end-2022] because the peso was threatening to cross what? 60 [against the dollar]. In this one, we are not that different from Asian central banks. The typical Asian central bank, more or less, sold about that proportion of their forex reserves. Thankfully, of course, the government also relaxed import restrictions on key food items. 2/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Easing inflation pressures point to inflation correcting to target by year-end So, we are now beginning to see great improvements in the inflation picture. For instance, if you look at the last four months [of 2023], [month-on-month seasonally adjusted inflation for] February was 0.3 percent, March was zero, April was zero, and May was 0.3 percent. So much so [was the improvement in inflation] that we now think that what we have done--aggressive monetary tightening, policy rate increases--has worked. At the same time, whatever we did as a response to COVID was also working because the economy was actually bouncing back very quickly when the restrictions on mobility were lifted. [GDP growth hit] 7.6 percent last year. Our forecast this year is [that the economy will grow by] another 6.0 percent. We think that inflation is now on what we call on a target-consistent path. 2023 inflation will average 5.5 percent despite the fact that we started [the year] with 8.0 percent [inflation in January]. We expect [inflation for] the last three months of this year to be within target. Next year, we expect inflation to average about 2.8 percent. That is right there at the midpoint of our target. Of course, a lot of new shocks could happen that could prove that forecast wrong. Global developments pushing and pulling Philippine inflation below or above target Nonetheless, this translates to 18 consecutive months of inflation being above target [from April 2022 to September 2023].2 As central banks, we know that whatever you do, there are many things that are beyond your control and you are responding to them. By the way, the worst record in terms of [inflation] being above target was 15 straight months [from February 2008 to April 2009]. What we learned from the past is that what is happening abroad could really bring [domestic] inflation off-target for a long time. When the rest of the world was [experiencing] deflationary conditions, we actually had 23 straight months of inflation below-target [from December 2014 to October 2016]. Nobody was complaining when we [inflation] were off target for 23 months. I think this was in 2015, 2016 when inflation was 0.7 percent and 1.3 percent. What we know, of course, is whatever the central bank does, there are so many things that can happen that can bring inflation off target. Nobody will complain when you are off target. In a country like the Philippines with a long history of inflation being abovetarget, nobody complains when it is below target. When the exchange rate matters in central bank decision-making 3/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches The other thing clear to us, for a classic, textbook inflation-targeting central bank, the exchange rate should not matter until it matters. Our finding was when you have the usual run-of-the-mill exchange rate changes, the translation [pass-through] to inflation is very low. For the Philippines, the number or the change in exchange rate translation to inflation is less than 0.1 percent.3 Unfortunately, we think that data applies only when the change in the exchange rate is two-way and not very large. Because [in] much of the data that we are looking at, we did not have the kind of exchange rate changes that we were seeing. In the case of the Philippines, the peso depreciated by nearly 14.0 percent [in October 2022]. Clearly, that kind of exchange rate volatility could disanchor inflationary expectations. Fortunately, we have gone through the worst of it. In fact, when I look at both yield curves and market surveys, they actually expect the central bank to cut policy rates early next year. Reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, 56-day bill marks shift to marketbased tools for liquidity management We did another measure that was aimed to help medium- and small-scale industries: we made loans to medium- and small-scale industries equivalent to complying with our reserve requirements. This was more or less equivalent to about a 250 bps cut in reserve requirements. That [relief measure] is about to expire by the end of the month [June 2023]. When it does expire, we have already cut reserve requirements by 250 bps. This [cut in RRR] will, of course, other things being equal, increase money supply. But we are now confident that because of our new powers to borrow from the public, we can easily offset the money supply effects of these cuts in the reserve requirement by increasing our issuances of central bank bills. Currently, the longest central bank bill is 28 days. We are introducing a 56-day bill to offset the effects of the cut in the reserve requirement. Moving forward and going digital: the BSP and the post-pandemic agenda We have laid out what we have done and at the same time, more or less said what we will do in the absence of new shocks. From here onward, the Philippine central bank will stay true to its three pillars--price stability, financial stability, and a safe, secure, and efficient payments and settlements system. By the way, the last one used to be the most boring part of central banking. But now of course because of the very, very, rapid rise in digital payments. We have two systems, one system is called InstaPay where the maximum you can pay is 50,000 pesos or less than 1,000 dollars, almost in real-time and 24/7. Then we have another system, which is called PESONet which replaces checks. Clearing happens twice a day. InstaPay 4/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches payment volumes are now more than [the volume of] ATM transactions. In a short time, we expect PESONet payments to overtake checks. Hopefully, checks will become a thing of the past. No more paper checks. Inflation-targeting: direct link to growth? Now, of course, what we can say is that, the Philippine experience with inflation targeting central bank in spite of all supply shocks that brought inflation outside the target, has been quite good. By and large, we were able to convince markets that when we do miss the inflation target, it is not because we [at the central bank] have created too much or too little credit but because of supply shocks. So far, our surveys show [that it is] not just the markets but also the people also seem to believe it [the BSP's credibility as an inflation-targeting central bank]. Now, we think – and this is where we have to do more research – that inflation-targeting actually increased the growth rate of the Philippine economy. It's very hard to tell because so many factors are at play. The growth of the economy was actually significantly higher during the inflation-targeting period than before. The optimistic view is when there is less uncertainty about future inflation, the more efficient the markets are. The other view is there are so many things [economic reforms] that happened that resulted in higher output. BSP taking climate action: promoting sustainable finance Now, into the future, we have to be focused on [other matters] and this is a very important question: the idea that the central bank should be doing other things than its three pillars. The most important concern is climate change. Now, our view about climate change is the Philippines is one of the most negatively affected economies by climate change. We should do something about it. The other one is a very pragmatic one: we expect the rich world that caused all the climate change [greenhouse gas emissions] will punish countries that will not do anything about it. Eventually, the sovereign bonds of the Philippines will probably take a hit if we do not do anything about climate change. In 2020, we implemented our Sustainable Central Banking Strategy as part of our contribution to the whole-of-government approach to climate change. I am glad that this issue will be discussed in one of the panels. How exactly we will encourage banks to lend more to support sustainability? The last thing we want to do is mandate credit because we know it does not work. We mandated credit for agriculture, the banks just decided to pay their penalties [for non-compliance]. We mandated credit for lending to medium- and small-scale industries, the banks just decided to pay their penalties. Clearly, there must be other ways of supporting sustainable finance. One of them is lifting the single borrower's limits (SBL). The main concern there is by lifting the SBL, we also expose the banks to bigger risks. 5/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Importance of clear communication for policymakers with expanding mandates At any rate, the important is the central bank must communicate. This is one area where we can learn much from each other. We believe that by fostering trust and providing clear guidance, we can mitigate uncertainties and anchor expectations, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of our policies. Working towards collaboration, innovation, and development In closing, let me say again the great importance of information sharing, policy coordination, and knowledge exchange not just to improve the effectiveness of policies but also to improve the way we do central banking. We must also embrace innovation and harness the power of technology. Central banks must adapt and enhance their analytical capabilities, employing digital tools and methodologies to better understand the intricacies of the modern economy. Embracing digitalization can lead to improved policy formulation, more accurate forecasting, and effective risk management. Finally, we must not lose sight of the broader social and environmental responsibilities that accompany our role. Of course, the important question is the extent to which broadening our role does not reduce our effectiveness on [delivering on] the three pillars which are the very reasons the central bank exists in the first place. Now, we all have a packed two days ahead of us. I hope you all pick up something valuable from the discussions. Maraming salamat at mabuhay tayong lahat. 1 The total assets of the BSP was around 5.1 trillion pesos in 2019 which increased to 7.1 trillion pesos in 2020. 2 The 18 months from April 2022 to September 2023 refers to both actual and forecasted inflation, with 14 months of actual inflation being above target and 4 months of forecasted inflation being above-target. 3 The short- and long-run exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) during inflation-targeting period are 0.076 and 0.116, respectively. This means that a 1-peso depreciation will raise inflation by 0.076 ppt in the short-run and 0.116 ppt in the long-run. 6/6 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, World Bank, and International Finance Corporation's joint event on Open Finance, Manila, 21 June 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Setting the future and next steps for open finance Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, World Bank, and International Finance Corporation's joint event on Open Finance, Manila, 21 June 2023. *** To Paramita Dasgupta [of the International Finance Corporation], Maria Lourdes Jocelyn Pineda [of the Open Finance Oversight Committee–Transition Group], fellow members of the Monetary Board, friends from the banking industry, and colleagues, good morning. Thank you for joining us in this event, themed "Philippine Financial Sector Resilience Strategy: Open Finance-Driving Digitalization and Cybersecurity." The promise of open finance To put it very simply, what are the gates? The gates, of course, are more competition and the other is data-sharing, which will actually improve our ability to assess borrowing capacity and so on and so forth. At the center of all this is the consumer, the individual owning the data. It is a two-way thing, right? There are times when you [the bank] have good information on the clients. Of course, you do not want to share it with others. This is what is happening in a lot of closed systems. So, how do you get the benefit of both? More competition, more data-sharing. Recognizing the risks: cybersecurity risks threaten trust and confidence in the system If you think people are already afraid of the current system because of all of these [cybersecurity risks] that can happen, you share your OTP [one-time password] with somebody, and then, all of a sudden, you lost 100,000. By the way, some of the people I know who lost money are very smart. They are just too busy. I know a thoracic surgeon who was so busy and so trusting that he shared his OTP and lost 200,000. These are some concerns that have to be addressed. Of course, you should also be able to say what happens when things go wrongaccountability. I have a good example. I will not name the company, but it has been in the news. [For] some account holders [of an electronic wallet (e-wallet)], their money was transferred to bank accounts [under two banks]. What happened? Accountability, when things go wrong, is also extremely important. [Maintaining] the level of the trust of the public so that when some things go wrong, they will be addressed properly and quickly. 1/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches But, as we discussed in a meeting prior to this, it is not a question of yes or no; it is a question of when. It is also a question of what are the parts that could come ahead of the others. For instance, we can start by stopping the practice in the Philippines where you are a captive of the banker of your employer. Just give the employee the choice [to choose his own payroll account]. After all, with PESONet, that should not be too difficult. I was quite surprised [when I learned] that most employees actually do not have [traditional] bank accounts-I will not mention the name of the company-but have a "GMaya" [ewallet account instead]. The importance of governance structures and regulation Building on a transport analogy, the "rails" lead the doors of data, made possible by APIs [application programming interfaces]. But said rails can only be built with the consent of the customer or the owners of the data. I should emphasize if the customer wants it shared, his bank cannot refuse. That is the other side. If I have a very good borrower, why would I want other banks to know that he is a good borrower? It is not just an API or a technology story, it is a governance story as well. These are the things that we are doing: capacity building, collaborative engagements, and, of course, commensurate regulations. As I said, there are-I look at regulations in two ways: One is before it [crisis] happens, and the other one is after it happens. When things go wrong, that is the most important part. People trust that things will be corrected, and you will not need lawyers to pay for it. Revised roadmap takes readiness into account As part of our phased and incremental approach to open finance, we have adopted a more feasible timeline for the Philippine open finance journey-from three years to, now, seven years. The revised roadmap is anchored on the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)'s digitalization and sustainability agenda. Hopefully, 98 percent of the things are done before the sixth year. This takes into account the current level of maturity and infrastructure, the readiness of the financial sector, requirements for capacity building, and complexities in promoting collaborative engagements. By the way, there are many things that will not happen. Suppose I need a surgeon. What I do is I call my sister who is a doctor, and she calls her friends to find a doctor. In this particular case, when things are very idiosyncratic and the level of trust is extremely important, openness is achieved by word of mouth, relationships, or you, trusting somebody to refer you to somebody properly. 2/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Therefore, we cannot avoid these issues. Are we ready? An even more important question [is]: Is the regulator ready? As you can see, one big problem in open finance is: Are you really sure that this is the same person that you are lending to? Does this person have a good record? Next stage of the open finance journey There are several stages of the pilot. The pilot preparation phase is where standard definitions happen. During the infrastructure preparation phase, participants prepare their respective infrastructure. In some cases, some infrastructures are common to share, or what we economists refer to as "public goods." In the pilot testing phase, participants-which will either be banks, EMIs [electronic money institutions], or payment system operators-are expected to exchange data among themselves via APIs. The pilot implementation will focus on the following use cases: statement sharing or account aggregation, account opening, and e-KYC [electronic Know-Your-Customer]. Is it not wonderful if data about your good record of always paying your electricity bill on time, your water bill on time, all of those things will clearly show that you are a low-risk borrower and, therefore, deserves low-interest rates? Now, of course, as we all economists know, when you cannot tell the difference, you charge everybody the same risk and hope that the risks will cover defaults. The problem with that system is that you are scared of somebody willing to accept a higher rate because he is more desperate. Therefore, you are left with the guy that nobody wants, and the risks are even higher. Maybe, I should charge even more than what is being charged. I think, the credit card business is littered with such examples. The less-skilled players get the "dregs." Despite the fact that they are charging more, they are losing more money. Closing message In closing, this is a very, very attractive future, but we all have to realize that it is not easy. Many things have to be done. At the same time, the fact that it will take seven years should not paralyze us. We have to think, "Well, what are the things that could be done sooner?" With that, you can rest assured that the BSP will continue to strive for a regulatory environment that promotes the right balance of innovation, competition, and consumer protection. We also remain committed to establishing robust frameworks that protect the interest of all stakeholders. 3/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches With Open Finance Ph, we take a big step in unlocking equal access to financial services for all Filipinos toward building a cyber-resilient and open digital economy. Maraming salamat, at mabuhay ang ating bansang Pilipinas 4/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas 2018–2023 Strategy Close-Out Meeting, Manila, 23 June 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Fortifying the foundations for the next generation of strategy leaders Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas 2018–2023 Strategy Close-Out Meeting, Manila, 23 June 2023. *** To my colleagues from the Monetary Board (MB); our Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) family; and all the awardees, some of whom will get their certificates later, magandang hapon po sa inyong lahat. As you know, because of the school where I came from [De La Salle Lipa], I love [the color] green, but yellow is fine, too. I noticed there was just one yellow [referring to the sector's perceived progress in achieving their strategic outcomes], and that was the Monetary and Economics Sector. Of course, it is very clear why-because a lot of the [elevated] inflation has nothing to do with monetary policy. In other words, there is nothing wrong with the color yellow or, maybe, even red. The important point is how much you worked and how much you tried. The color yellow says, "Try harder and learn the lessons from the past," [but considering] the extent to which exogenous factors will not change the color. Delivering on our three pillars in the face of global and domestic challenges As Director Caryl [Valdez]'s presentation shows us, we have done a lot in the past. I have been Governor for just a year, but it has been my greatest honor to have worked and served alongside all of you-navigating the challenges of the pandemic, especially at a critical time of history when there was a huge pivot in US [ Fed] monetary policy. Of course, the task is getting harder. Because of the pandemic, public debt is higher; the deficit is higher. During times like those, the pressure on the central bank is clearly going to be higher, as you can see in both interest rates and inflation. While a lot of things are outside of our control, what remains constant is [that] the BSP has three pillars and will dedicate all its strengths; all its resources; and all the hands, the minds, and the mouths in guiding the economy toward price stability; financial stability; and a safe, secure, and efficient payments and settlements system. To use Monetary Board Member (MBM) Tony [Abacan]'s favorite phrase, "The three pillars are in good hands." Improving monetary policy formulation through technology In the area of monetary policy formulation, we are investing in better models and leveraging Big Data and advanced analytics to improve our forecasting and analytical abilities, thereby adding to our toolkit of market surveillance and evidence-based value judgment. 1/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches The importance of reflection in the ongoing journey toward lifelong improvement By the way, we are in an uncomfortable spot where we do not really know whether what we did was better than what we did not do. Because, by their very definition, what we did not know, we do not know what happened at that time. Only in a place where you have two alternative universes, where time travel is possible and you could go back in time and play it again, can you now tell the difference between what could have been and what has been. It does require confidence. It requires faith in ourselves. It requires the analytical ability to say, "Maybe, we could have done better here. Maybe, we missed this one." As MBM Eli [Remolona] said, that is one important skill we must develop as an institution. [If we were] to follow Socrates who said, "An unexamined life is not worth living." OA [over acting] naman masyado iyon; it is still worth living. Our ability to always review ourselves and say, "How do we get better?" I guess, [the answer is] this exercise of before we do things, we already mapped out what we want to achieve and what strategies we want to employ. Doing that is really a great discipline for eventually reviewing ourselves because we must review ourselves relative to the things we put on record as the basis of our actions. Harnessing technology to improve banking supervision In the area of financial system regulation and supervision, the implementation of our SupTech [supervisory technology] roadmap and the strengthening of our competencies in digital bank supervision will help us not just to adapt, but also to proactively respond to fintech [financial technology] trends and post-pandemic supervisory challenges. In our pursuit of an inclusive financial system, we are looking at how we can use technology to become more effective in our communication program and to explore nontraditional methods of promoting financial literacy. Maximizing technology to improve organizational ability As an organization, the BSP has also tried to maximize the use of technology to ensure that we continue business as usual through hybrid work arrangements. I read an article about hybrid work. It says [that] hybrid work was "deceptively effective." What is the meaning of that? The reason hybrid work was working [is that] if the people were working together before, as they separate, they can still work together. That is the key. Then, how do you reduce the number of commutes while, at the same time, be able to work together and be able to cooperate better? Sometimes, working together is better than just writing to each other because there are many things you do not learn unless you actually work physically in the office. The reason work-from-home and worktogether work very well is [that] people work together well in the office. As they separate, they are still somehow still connected. How to do that in an environment with fewer working days together is, of course, a very important question. 2/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches As an organization, we have pursued the following [technological changes]: [First,] the [Digital] Innovation Laboratory [Sandox] which we set up in the first quarter of 2022. [Second,] our award-winning Cash Service Alliance was something new but was also quite effective and could be applied on a greater scale. It enables banks to draw from their own holdings and not be dependent completely on the BSP. Now, technology is just one component of our broad-based digital transformation. As I already said, [it also includes] people and processes-people who know how to work together and, therefore, are able to adapt to changes. We envision that you, our officers and staff, will be digitally empowered, and our business processes to be digitally enabled. Creation of new sectors: PCMS and ROAS Now, of course, we have grown quite a bit since I joined the MB in 2011. We used to have just three deputy governors (DGs), right? Now, we have five, with the creation of PCMS [Payments and Currency Management Sector] and ROAS [Regional Operations and Advocacy Sector]. In the beginning, in 2011, I thought [that] it would be the most boring sector because printing money in the branches, circulating it, and retrieving it [are straightforward]. It turns out, it is one of the most exciting because of what technology has done. I distinctly remember the MB interviewing the applicants. There was one applicant that impressed us the most. My first reaction is: "Here is an engineer who does not sound [like] an engineer." He has developed the communication skills and the ability to interact with others that are not learned in the school of engineering. Some of my brightest friends who cannot get along with others are engineers. I distinctly remember that, [DG] Mert [Tangonan]. Through PCMS, we now have a better understanding of how payments and currency management interplays with digital payments and demand for physical cash, and their various implications on monetary policy and other core functions of the BSP. For instance, [in] the last two or three meetings, I pointed out that actual demand for base money-cash in circulation that is not deposited with us-has been consistently below the lower end of our projection. What is clear from my point of view, although this still has to be verified, is that it is digital progress that explains that divergence. Let me now go to ROAS. Through ROAS, we better understand the importance of strategic communication in the effective delivery of our mandates, the role of the regional offices and branches in [promoting] financial literacy and education, as well as the need to engage our primary stakeholders. Through our regional branches, we can improve currency distribution by bringing the central bank closer to the communities that it serves. Of course, it [setting up branches] also raises our costs, but we are a public-sector corporation. Clearly, pure profit is not our objective. If we can raise our profits but, if [in] the way of doing so, we allow the quality of bills to deteriorate, we have not really succeeded. We have not really improved. Of course, as my colleagues in the MB have said, we need better metrics to 3/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches precisely find out to what extent the costs are higher because the quality is higher. In our household, if it is more expensive, it is actually better. [In] my way of talking to my wife, "It is okay to spend your own money because I will die ahead of you." Moreover, our branches support our Clean Note and Coin Policy program by streamlining unfit currency and having good programs for replacement and retirement. We continue to revisit our communication strategy, recalibrate our approaches, and fortify our organizational competency so we can meet the people where they are at their point of need. Walking the talk on sustainability In sustainability, green is the color of recovery. We are a step ahead as we have already made a deliberate choice to include sustainability as one of our strategic focus areas. Even within the IMF [International Monetary Fund], there is a debate [on] whether a financial institution that does not have fiscal power-the power to punish, the power to give incentives-is taking on a task that it cannot deliver. What we hope for is that fiscal authorities are also doing their part so that we are not really being set up for an impossible mission. The 11-point Sustainable Central Banking Strategy will help enable the BSP to become an enabler, doer, and mobilizer of ESG [environmental, social, and governance] principles. In our commitment to lead by example, we are actively embedding sustainability in our forex [foreign exchange] reserves management: Last August 2022, the Investment Management Committee (IMC) approved the inclusion of green bonds as allowable investments in our internally managed portfolios. We have also included ESG scores and climate risk as additional screens for our corporate bond investments and our external fund managers. Passing on the torch As we come to the close of our 2018–2023 BSP Strategy, it is but fitting to say thank you to all of you for your active participation and meaningful contribution to the success of the BSP in implementing its strategies. While many things have changed and will continue changing, I am confident that the BSP is filled with dedicated, hardworking, highly competent, and professional public servants-who, by the way, are generally good-looking-who are unwavering in their commitment to providing policy directions and central banking services that promote a high quality of life for all Filipinos. It has been my honor to serve alongside all of you and to lead this organization for the past year. Thank you very much for that privilege. 4/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Maraming salamat, at mabuhay ang mahal nating BSP! 5/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Turnover Ceremony, Manila, 3 July 2023.
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Felipe M Medalla: Navigating the road ahead - looking back to look forward Speech by Mr Felipe M Medalla, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Turnover Ceremony, Manila, 3 July 2023. *** Magandang, magandang umaga sa inyong lahat! Gov. Eli [Remolona], members of the Monetary Board (MB), and fellow BSPers, it is the 30th anniversary of our beloved Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). Let us celebrate! Ladies and gentlemen of the BSP, we, together, survived and, not only that, we thrived in a year full of extreme challenges, which [Deputy Governor] Chuchi [Fonacier] had already described. As COVID-19 lingered and work-from-home arrangements continued, we managed to ensure the uninterrupted supply of money across our country, kept the banking system strong and stable, made our financial system even more inclusive, battled record-high inflation-by the way, at the rate it is going, 18 straight months of above-target inflation, three months longer than the previous record-and helped provide stability to our economy. We did these together! Congratulations, BSPers! Now, for the specifics. Do not forget, I used to be a professor so this will take an hour. I promise, Gov. Eli, you will [have to] wait just a little bit more. Not an hour-maybe half an hour [or] shorter than that. Preserving price stability and building on solid foundations On price stability, it was a year like no other. We encountered unprecedented challenges over which the BSP has little control. Of course, we call them supply shocks. Supply chain disruptions, here and overseas, triggered price hikes in basic commodities, transport, and other services. We had to act decisively. And we did. During my term as Governor, the BSP raised the policy rates by a total of 350 basis points (bps), on top of the 75 bps already taken before I became Governor. By the way, I have to thank my predecessor, Gov. Ben [Diokno]. The last thing I thought a month before I became Governor was that am I really Governor? Of course, a series of events [happened]. Gov. Ben cannot say no to the call of duty to be Finance secretary in what I consider to be the toughest time to be Finance secretary. Here I am now, serving the term that actually started with [then Gov.] Nesting Espenilla. This is really, again, another unusual thing: 12 years, one governor-Say Tetangco; six years, three governors. I thank all the three governors before me. They laid the foundation for facing what turned out to be a very difficult year. 1/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches As I said, we acted decisively. We also sold foreign exchange (forex) as necessary. By the way, this has now become standard language in the IMF [International Monetary Fund]. They used not to like it. It even has an acronym, "FXI," [which stands for] foreign exchange intervention. In the old days, the IMF frowned on all these things. In addition, we communicated our policy actions and explained why we were doing them through forward guidance. Combined with non-monetary measures, our actions helped reduce second-round effects and re-anchor inflationary expectations. We have already brought inflation to a target-consistent path, operationally defined as within 2.0–4.0 percent. Unless there are new shocks, we should see inflation below 4.0 percent before the end of this year. This is something to look forward to and, of course, to pray for-that there will be no more large shocks. Of course, as they say, anything that can happen can happen, but anything you pray for, you hope to happen. On the exchange rate front: After depreciating year-to-date from January to October 2022 to a record low of 59.0 to US$1, the peso has since appreciated against the dollar, closing on 30 June 2023 at 55.2 to US$1. Our more stable exchange rate helps us avoid excessive depreciation that may dislodge inflation expectations and add to inflationary pressures. For those of you who have taken monetary economics, [in] a standard [economics] textbook on inflation targeting, there is hardly any mention of the exchange rate, aside from saying that to a good inflation-targeting central bank, the exchange rate does not matter until it does. Unfortunately, that time came. It did matter quite a bit. I am also pleased to share that Fitch acknowledged the credibility of the BSP's inflationtargeting framework and flexible exchange rate regime. Keeping banks healthy and strong Now, to our second pillar. On maintaining price stability, I am pleased to report that on account of our continuing reforms, our banks are strong, stable, well-capitalized, highly liquid, and well-governed. Thus, our banks have remained a source of strength and support to our local economy and [facilitated] a strong recovery right after the restrictions on mobility were lifted. While financial stability is a responsibility that we share with other financial regulators, like the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Insurance Commission, the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation, and, of course, the Department of Finance, bank regulation remains central in a bank-centric economy [like the Philippines] where the balance sheet of the banking system was 23.1 trillion, about the same as our country's [nominal] GDP [gross domestic product as of Q1 2023]. Today, the BSP has the flexibility and policy space to preserve its two pillars of price and financial stability without needing to sacrifice one for the other. 2/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches In addition, we take an active role in promoting sustainable finance through our 11-point Sustainable Central Banking Strategy. In leading by example, we have also made it a point to invest some of our forex reserves in green assets. Making the payments system more digital and inclusive Now, to our third pillar. We continue to make good progress on our third pillar of providing a safe, secure, and efficient payments and settlements system. Among others, 42.1 percent of retail payments in 2022 were already digital. This puts us on track to achieve our target of digitalizing half of domestic retail payments by the end of this year. The volume of digital payments continues to grow significantly. For instance, InstaPay transaction volumes have already exceeded ATM [automated teller machine] transactions. Soon, PESONet transactions will overtake checks in our paperless shift. Now, on financial inclusion. We actively rolled out the Paleng-QR Ph Plus program, which promotes the use of digital transactions and QR [quick response] payments among market vendors, public transportation drivers, and microentrepreneurs. On top of that, we now have been given the power to strengthen consumer protection alongside widespread digitalization. We have produced circulars in line with the implementation of the Financial Products and Services Consumer Protection Act. By the way, for those who are not familiar, we actually have a little court here in the BSP that settles [consumer] disputes. Awards and recognition I am also happy to report that the BSP continues to receive awards: the Presidential Lingkod Bayan Award for the BSP's Cash Service Alliance core team and the Cyber Resilience Initiative Award from Central Banking's FinTech & RegTech Global Awards. Other citations received were for our polymer banknotes, investor relations engagement, museum website, and even a National Book Award. Expression of gratitude Ladies and gentlemen, the BSP hurdled the challenges that came our way in the past year because we were focused and committed to pursuing our mandates. I can say that all BSPers-in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao-contributed to this amazing year. Everybody should be thanked in general, but some people are worth mentioning by name. 3/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Allow me to give my own citations. To the members of the Monetary Board and their valuable guidance and counsel-as I keep saying, we disagree but we are never disagreeable: Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno, Peter Favila, and Tony Abacan. By the way, Tony and Peter, just like me, are moving to other endeavors. I suppose they will help the BSP in every way they can. Now, the board members whose terms expire three years from now: Bruce Tolentino, Annie Aquino, and, of course, Gov. Eli, who finished my term as a board member and is now Governor. For their excellent work, I would like to thank the following-as I call you, please stand up and get recognized: Deputy Governor Francis Dakila and the Monetary and Economics Sector-I love Francis. He knows how to get out of his comfort zone. During our programs, he even dances; Deputy Governor Chuchi Fonacier and the Financial Supervision Sector-when there is a job to be done, send the woman. The banks understand that; Deputy Governor Mamerto Tangonan and the Payments and Currency Management Sector; I think, Ed is feeling bad so he could not be here this morning, but Deputy Governor Ed Bobier and the Corporate Services Sector; and of course, how could I forget, my former student, Deputy Governor Berna RomuloPuyat and the Regional Operations and Advocacy Sector. My dear BSPers, I have served the BSP for 12 years-11 years as a member of the MB and one year as head of our institution. And while my one-year stint as Governor of the BSP was full of challenges, ultimately, it was successful and memorable because we worked together for our economy and our people. Fellow BSPers, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. has chosen Governor Eli M. Remolona to head our central bank for the next six years. We are very, very fortunate to have him here. Finally, although they are not with us now-this is the secret of my happy marriage; my wife is often out of the country-I thank my family, especially my wife Pinky and our children, although they are too old to be called "children." I am blessed to have this loving family that has kept me inspired, grounded, and strong, no matter what I do or fail to do. And for that, I will always be grateful. 4/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Muli, maraming, maraming salamat sa inyong lahat! Mabuhay ang BSP! Mabuhay ang ating mahal na bansang Pilipinas! 5/5 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Eli M Remolona Jr, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 30th Anniversary Reception for the Banking Community, Manila, 28 July 2023.
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Eli M Remolona: Navigating the road ahead - looking back to look forward Speech by Mr Eli M Remolona Jr, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 30th Anniversary Reception for the Banking Community, Manila, 28 July 2023. *** Former central bank governors, members of the Monetary Board, friends from the banking sector, the diplomatic corps and fellow workers in government: Magandang gabi po; good evening! Tonight, I am honored to be standing here before all of you. Thank you for joining us tonight. Let me begin by expressing my gratitude to my predecessor and good friend, Governor Philip Medalla. While he's not able to join us tonight, I want to express my thanks to him for his dedication to upholding the integrity of our monetary system and for resolutely keeping the economy to its course towards price stability. Let me now tell you about an interview I had two weeks ago with Kathleen Hays, Bloomberg's dean of economic reporting. She asked me, "Governor, when you're not thinking about monetary policy, what do you think about?" The right answer, of course, was, "When I'm not thinking about monetary policy, I think about my lovely wife!" But being the central banking nerd that I am, I said instead, "When I'm not thinking about monetary policy, I think about banking supervision and the payments system!" So you'll forgive me for saying a few words about each of those three things: monetary policy, banking supervision and the payments system. Let me start with how our economy recovered from the crisis of the pandemic. As we all know, it was a surprisingly strong recovery. Coming out of a crisis, it was a recovery like no other. What was the difference this time? I'd say it was the banking system. Our banks maintained more than adequate levels of capital and remained flush with liquidity. This time, there was no need to repair balance sheets. I have said this before, and I'll say it again. Unlike in previous crises, this time our banks were part of the solution rather than part of the problem. Let me pause at this point to thank our friends in the banking sector. And let's not forget to also thank Deputy Governor Chuchi Fonacier for her persistence and that of her team in banking supervision. 1/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Let me now turn to our immediate challenge, that of inflation. While still in the process of recovering from the pandemic, we were hit by an unusual confluence of supply shocks. We were hit, for example, by a spike in global prices of fertilizer – so not just food prices and not just oil prices.. This was due, of course, to the sanctions on [shipping from] Belarus and Russia. In response, we tightened monetary policy and we tightened aggressively, the way an inflation-targetting central bank would. We worried about expectations, and we worried about second-round effects. Today, we're beginning to see tantalizing fruits of our efforts. Headline inflation seems to have peaked and looks to be on its way to our target range of 2 to 4 percent. Our monetary board, our deputy governor Francis Dakila and his team are to be thanked for this. Nonetheless, it's too soon to declare victory. Core inflation remains high. There are still upside risks to inflation – for example, risks in the form of El Niño and further supply shocks. We will wait and see. We will analyze the data as they arrive, and that analysis will decide monetary policy down the road. The next challenge is the payments system. For the sake of efficiency, we seek the magic of digitalization. We want this magic to also help with financial inclusion. We're making some progress. At last count, 42 percent of retail payments were in digital form. This is up from just 1 percent ten years ago. That proportion should hit our target of 50 percent this year. At this stage, we've given licenses to 258 digital payment providers. Over time, we expect competition and network effects to result in a system where the most innovative, efficient and responsible providers truly respond to the needs of customers. This digitalization has been a pathway to financial inclusion. More Filipinos are now part of the formal financial system. In our financial inclusion survey in 2021, 56 percent of [adults] in the country had a bank account, a significant increase from just 23 percent in 2017. We're confident we will reach our target of 70 percent by this year. We're not stopping here. These accounts should provide the opportunity for people to build savings buffers, invest in their future and more actively participate in the digital economy. Programs like Paleng-QR help digitalize crucial value chains of merchants and SMEs. We're so excited about all this! For this excitement, we can thank Deputy Governors Mert Tangonan and Berna Romulo Puyat and their teams. We will continue to work hard in pursuing our mandate of ensuring price stability, financial stability and a safe and efficient payment system. We will do this through greater investment in our research and operational capacities to become a more responsive, efficient, agile and future-ready institution. We lean on Deputy Governor Ed Bobier and his team. Thank you, DG Ed. 2/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches We're going to work actively with our colleagues in government and stakeholders on reforms to deepen our capital market as well as strengthen our sustainability agenda. In all these, we need your help. Let us continue to work together. 3/3 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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Speech by Mr Eli M Remolona, Jr, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Economic Briefing, Laoag, 14 August 2023.
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Eli M Remolona: Rising to the challenge - the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Speech by Mr Eli M Remolona, Jr, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Philippine Economic Briefing, Laoag, 14 August 2023. *** Congressman Angelo Marcos Barba, Vice Governor Cecilia Araneta Marcos, Batac City Mayor Albert Chua, Laoag City Mayor Michael Marcos Keon, guests from various sectors, partners in nation-building, naimbag a bigat! I am happy to be in Laoag for the first post-State of the Nation Address Economic Briefing. I would like to talk about just three things: inflation, exchange rate pressures, [and] our banking system, including its role in sustainability. Let me start by discussing the recent trend in inflation. The blue line that you can see is the inflation rate for headline inflation. This is the part of inflation that is driven more by supply-side factors, and this is the part that the central bank has less control over. The red line is inflation based on the core CPI [consumer price index], which excludes the volatile components of prices, namely food and energy. This is the one that is more easily subject to monetary policy. From the peak of 8.7 percent in January, headline inflation slowed to 4.7 percent in July. This is due to improving domestic food supply conditions and lower global oil prices. But core inflation has remained high at 6.7 percent, although it has started to decline. That decline is due mainly to monetary policy. So, how did we bring about this inflation downtrend? The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) responded to inflation by aggressively raising its policy rate. As of today, we have raised the policy rate by [a cumulative] 425 basis points (bps). In the last two meetings, we have paused. We are reassessing the situation. That is where we stand. We will go where the data leads us, but sometimes, the data does not seem to know where to go. The good news is that inflation expectations are still well-anchored. The green line in the picture shows inflation expectations for this year have evolved. The blue line is more important. It is about [inflation] expectations for 2024. The red line is about 2025. They are very well-anchored. In other words, the markets continue to believe that we will hit our target range by 2024 and stay there for 2025. There are good reasons for these expectations. The blue graph here reflects what our models say. If you just focus on the darkest part of the blue graph, you will see that by 1/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches the end of this year, it [inflation] will have fallen to our target range of 2.0–4.0 percent. In fact, it may overshoot at the end of Q1 next year. The bad news is that there are upside risks. These include transport fare hikes, higher minimum wage constraints, and the El Niño phenomenon, which is already causing drought in our neighbors, including Vietnam where we get most of our rice imports. If you look at the Ilocos Region, the downward trend [in inflation] is also evident. That is on the next slide. Inflation in the Ilocos Region declined from a peak of 9.3 percent in January to 3.6 percent in July. We see the same trend in all four provinces of the region. We have also to thank non-monetary measures [for the decline in inflation]. We have had short-term strategies, including ensuring food reserves, enhancing agricultural resilience, and boosting economic support. We also have medium to long-term strategies, including strengthening the local food systems, upgrading infrastructure, and streamlining regulations for investments. Let me now turn to the exchange rate. As you know, the exchange rate also affects inflation. The central bank has been using three tools. In its use of monetary policy tools, the BSP keeps an eye on the exchange rate. Monetary policy is about adjusting the key policy interest rate. As I have said before, we have raised that by [a cumulative] 425 bps. That has helped strengthen and stabilize the peso. We have occasionally intervened in the foreign exchange (forex) market. This is to avoid destabilizing swings in the exchange rate, which tend to upset the markets. We have also been offering forward guidance. These are hints about what we might do in the next few [policy] meetings. This forward guidance reduces uncertainty in the market. As a consequence of that, forex pressures have eased. Since 2023, you can see that it has been relatively stable. The peso appreciated by 4.9 percent as of [8] August 2023, relative to its year-high depreciation level of 59 to the dollar in October 2022. As of 8 August, the peso closed at 56.24 to a dollar. This is partly due to the US Fed [United States Federal Reserve]'s decision to raise its own policy rate by 25 bps as well as the rating downgrade by Fitch of the US' long-term rating from AAA to AA+. Compared to our neighbors, the peso has weakened only slightly. The peso is somewhere in the middle. It is the red bar. That red bar shows that since the beginning of the year, the peso has depreciated by less than 1.0 percent. This depreciation is smaller than those of our neighbors. As you can see in the red bars, that includes the Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, South Korean won, and Japanese yen. In relation to the exchange rate, external inflows have helped us stabilize the exchange rate as well as helped us maintain our international reserves. On the left, you see the [overseas] Filipinos' cash remittances. That is the light blue bar. Then, you can see the dark blue bar. The light blue bar is BPO [business process outsourcing] revenues. Those have been growing. Remittances and BPO revenues together amount to more 2/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches than six times net foreign direct investments-which is shown in the right picture-which has somewhat declined but, thankfully, is a smaller part of our [forex] inflows. As a consequence of these inflows, we have been able to maintain ample [forex] reserves. These reserves provide a cushion against negative global spillovers. Our foreign reserves have hovered around US$100 billion, and we expect it to remain at roughly the same level in the coming years. We need these reserves because, we think, the world will slow down next year and in the following years, especially [because] of what the Fed has done. As you know, the Fed has tightened so aggressively that it is bound to slow down not just the US economy but also the rest of the world. This poses risks to us and other emerging markets because financial accidents could happen. For example, [the collapse of] SVB [Silicon Valley Bank] and Credit Suisse, which, thankfully, so far, have left us unscathed. It is a good thing we have ample reserves because this is part of our defense against negative global spillovers. In looking at our external accounts, it is important to go beyond just reserves and quarter-to-quarter inflows. It is [also] important to look at the current account. The current account, which is how much we borrow abroad and send abroad, is basically the difference between our investments as a country and our savings as a country. In the graph, the red line is savings and the blue line is investments. Until recently, we have been saving more than we have been investing, and it has led to a current account surplus. But there is, as you know, an acute shortage of investments. We have started to ramp up our investments, especially in infrastructure. Our savings have not yet caught up with that. That is why, in 2022, we saw current account deficit [increase] to 4.4 percent of GDP [gross domestic product]. That is not really a bad thing. With productive investments, what will eventually happen is that GDP growth and savings will outpace investments. This will narrow the gap between savings and investments. Eventually, savings will exceed investments, and we will have a current account surplus. Whatever we borrowed when we had a deficit, we can repay now that we have a surplus. That is a direction we anticipate for the current account. Let me now say something about our banking system. As you can see from the picture, despite the tightening [in monetary policy], growth has been robust. We have recovered strongly from one of the world's longest and most stringent lockdowns. We have done so faster than most Asian countries. For this, I think, we can thank our banking sector as well as the BSP's emphasis on financial stability. The picture on the left shows you the international standard for capital. That is the blue bar. The banks' actual capital, as shown in the yellow bar on the right, far exceeded what international standards say about the capital that banks need to hold. The bars on the right show the liquidity position of the banks. The blue bar shows the international standard for the liquidity of banks, and the yellow bar shows the actual liquidity that banks hold. This gives us confidence that the policy rate adjustments were done without risking financial stability. 3/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches Let me now turn to digitalization. I think, our digitalization efforts are on track. Account ownership has almost doubled in two years [from 2019 to 2021], as shown by the picture on the left. That means 22 million Filipinos opened an account in 2021. This is the highest growth to date for the country. We would like it to go to 70 percent by the end of this year. On the right, you will see the percentage of Filipino grown-ups with e-money accounts. That has breached 36 percent in 2021. This trend is a big jump in the percentage of Filipinos with e-money accounts. The payment that we use in shops and stores is increasingly digital. In 2022, the share of digital payment transactions to the total volume of retail payments rose to 42 percent, and we are trying to hit our target of 50 percent by the end of this year. Let me say something about our strategies for sustainability. We want to strengthen our programs for sustainability, but we want sustainability with a heart. As a nation, we signed the Paris Agreement in 2015. This means we are committed to the global initiative of net zero carbon emissions by 2025, and nationally, our determined contributions are to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 75 percent by 2030. For its part, the BSP champions sustainability in the financial system. We also want sustainability not at the expense of the poor. When we do sustainability, we want to emphasize small-scale strategies, including electric tricycles, pay-as-you-go solar, and other small-scale projects. That is where we stand. We will continue to emphasize our three pillars: price stability, financial stability, and an efficient and safe payments and settlements system. Maraming salamat po. Agyamanak kadakayo amin. Thank you. 4/4 BIS - Central bankers' speeches
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