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Is the new Google Guarantee program worth the hassle? | Avery Swartz is a tech consultant who advises small businesses on all things digital. She is also the founder of Camp Tech, a tech training company for businesses and individuals across Canada. Alphabet Inc.'s Google has rolled out a new service in Canada that promises to help your professional service business stand out from the crowd. Businesses in the program will have Googles badge of approval next to their listing in the search engines results. The Google Guarantee program is a feature of the companys Local Services ads service, which launched in Canada in late 2018 in the Toronto and Vancouver areas. The program is currently only available in Canada for plumbers, heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) professionals and locksmiths, but is expected to be rolled out for other service providers down the road. Story continues below advertisement Google started testing Local Services ads in San Francisco in 2015 and has expanded to more than 30 metropolitan areas in the United States. In the United States, Local Services ads are available for service categories including locksmiths, plumbers, electricians, HVAC services, carpet cleaners, house cleaners and garage door services. Local Services ads are similar to Google Ads (previously called Google AdWords), in that they appear at the top of search engine result pages when someone is doing an internet search. Businesses only pay Google when a lead is generated through Local Services ads. Google provides a forwarding phone number in the ad, and leads are tracked through those phone calls. If privacy is top of mind for your business, be warned: A recent Star Metro report says both sides of the phone calls are recorded by Google. The service provider is only charged for the calls that come through from Google and can set a weekly budget based on the average number of leads theyd like to receive. Unlike Google Ads, which anyone can create, Local Services ads have a detailed application process. Google vets each service provider, verifying that they have insurance and meet all local licence requirements. They also perform background checks on the business and the owner. Jumping through the extra hoops can be worthwhile, though, as the end result is an ad in Google with a special designation: a Google Guarantee. When a customer books through Google Local Services, the service is Google Guaranteed for up to $2,000 money back if the customer is unhappy. The Google Guarantee badge appears right in the ad itself. On the customer side, the Google Guarantee is compelling. Odds are, when someone is searching for a plumber, HVAC or locksmith service, theyre in a moment of need. They have a problem, need it fixed fast, and are likely to book a service right away. It can be hard for the customer to determine whos trustworthy in a Google search though, as reputable service providers have to compete against shady businesses who may be buying Google Ads to stand out. Service providers with a Google Guarantee designation appear first in search results (higher than Google Ads). This helps instill customer trust and provide peace of mind. Brock Murray is co-founder and chief operating officer of seoplus+ , an Ottawa-based digital marketing agency. He has been following the rollout of Local Services ads in the United States and is excited to see them launch in Canada. He sees the appeal in Local Service ads, particularly because of their ease of use. "I like that from business owners perspective, its really simple to use, Mr. Murray says. Its a very easy way to get leads at a predictable cost. Story continues below advertisement Story continues below advertisement Mr. Murray suspects that Google will expand the types of professional service businesses eligible for Local Services ads beyond the plumbing, HVAC and locksmith industries into other services as theyve done in the United States. He encourages businesses to try Local Service ads as early as they can, as being one of the first service providers to have the Google Guarantee can be a key differentiator against competition. "The first ones who get Google Guaranteed are going to be getting the traffic. If youre not, youre going to fall behind, Mr. Murray advises. Lior Shaykevich, owner of Toronto Pro Locksmith, has experimented with Local Services ads. Its fantastic. It gets me to the top and shows the actual businesses that are capable of doing the job and makes me stand out, he says. Mr. Shaykevich was able to set up his Google Local Services account himself, and spending about $400 a week, he says he is receiving an estimated five calls a day. Thats a relatively low cost for each lead when compared with Google Ads, where it can cost a business $30 to $40 for each lead-generating click to appear at the top of a search for Toronto locksmith. As more businesses sign up for Google Local Services ads, the cost to compete could rise. "As more people get on it, thats when theyll drive up the prices. Just like AdWords five years ago, Mr. Murray says. | https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/small-business/marketing/article-is-the-new-google-guarantee-program-worth-the-hassle/ |
What If We Treated AI Bias Testing Like Clinical Drug Trials? | As society struggles with how to best address AI bias, many solutions have emerged, from creating new minimally biased open training datasets to using name and shame campaigns to embarrass companies into doing better. Every new AI product would have to declare the demographics it has designed its algorithm to work best for and register with an independent testing agency that would test its accuracy on each of those demographics and generate a public report detailing how it performed on each. A significant driving force behind the biases of todays AI solutions is the simple fact that companies refuse to pay for minimally biased training data. AI systems of today are nearly exclusively trained using only what free off the shelf data their creators can get their hands on. Companies rarely even consider the idea of paying to collect or curate training data that has a lower bias level. Creating massive new minimally biased open training datasets available to everyone for free would have a profound impact on replacing industrys current obsession with using only free training data with a focus on using good data. However, even if minimally biased data was freely available, companies would still face the economic tradeoffs of balancing bias minimization with model filesize, execution speed and accuracy on their core customer demographics. In the end, economics will always win and companies will simply manually curate bias back into minimally biased data in order to focus on their target demographics. Similarly, name and shame campaigns have limited utility. To the degree they are well aligned with economic drivers, from acquiring vast new economically valuable customer bases to meeting the needs of large governmental clients, the biases they identify will be addressed with or without the campaign. In contrast, as a quarter century of name and shame campaigns relating to accessibility reminds us, no amount of public scrutiny will lead companies to invest in correcting bias they do not see as economically harmful even if it has severe impacts for society. As AI algorithms increasingly power modern society, the impact when they go wrong can be devastating, from limits on freedom and exercise of basic rights to exclusion from the democratic process to judicial bias to outright loss of life. This suggests that the casual collaborative self-evaluation approach used to evaluate AI bias today is insufficient as the dangers of AI bias grow. In contrast, other domains with substantial potential for societal harm like the introduction of new medical treatments, undergo extensive clinical trials that document their differing impacts on different demographics. The developer would be required to declare the target demographics they believed their product should work well for and/or had been optimized for. The tool would be submitted to a central independent AI testing authority that could be either governmental or a non-profit with total independence from any of the companies. The testing agency would evaluate the products results on a set of demographic test datasets designed to mimic its real-world performance for those demographics. For example, a company that declared its product was intended only for use in the United States by non-accented American English speakers would be tested using a dataset comprised of such speakers, while a company declaring its product was accent independent and could work on any form of English worldwide would be tested on a vastly more diverse dataset comprised of English speakers from across the world. To ensure companies did not improperly tune their products for the tests themselves, new benchmark testing datasets would be released quarterly, with product improvements being measured against their original testing benchmarks and each new benchmark as it became available. As new forms of bias gain prominence, the testing agency could add new benchmarks to test for them and companies could declare whether their products should be tested for those forms of bias. Market forces would ensure that companies are incentivized to have their products certified against each new major bias topic. The end result would be a form of nutrition label for each AI product listing its intended set of target demographics and its performance on each of those demographics. Such a clinical trial process could begin as an entirely voluntary initiative that would afford companies that subjected their tests to certification the economic advantage of being able to tout their low bias on demographics of greatest interest to their customers and government regulators. Over time, certain fields such as governmental judicial or law enforcement use and commercial applications like hiring systems might require certain certifications. Putting this all together, by centralizing and systematizing our approach to evaluating AI bias, we would force companies to disclose their target demographics and offer the public an independent trustworthy evaluation of how well their products serve those demographics, with results that can be directly compared across the marketplace. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2019/01/27/what-if-we-treated-ai-bias-testing-like-clinical-drug-trials/ |
Will Decelerating Growth Continue When Facebook Reports Earnings? | Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) has endured a stunning fall from grace over the past year. The Cambridge Analytica scandal was just the first in a seemingly endless series of missteps, mostly concerning users' data privacy and the role of bad actors on its platform. Most recently, Facebook has been dealing with slowing user growth, something the company has been signaling for some time. The combination of these factors and the recent market correction had caused Facebook's stock to lose as much as 40% of its value in the second half of 2018, though it has recently recouped some of those losses. Facebook is scheduled to release the financial results of its just-completed fourth quarter on Wednesday, Jan. 30, after the market closes. Let's take a look at the company's third-quarter performance and its most recent forecast to see if they provide any insight into what investors can expect from the upcoming earnings report. The back of a young man wearing a Facebook shirt working at a computer screen filled with code. More Image source: Facebook. Decelerating revenue growth For the third quarter, Facebook reported revenue of $13.7 billion, up 33% year over year. While this result might seem enviable, it missed analysts' consensus estimates of $13.78 billion and represents a rapid deceleration from the company's performance in the two previous sequential quarters, which produced year-over-year growth of 42% and 50%, respectively. Third quarter operating margins also took a hit against the prior-year quarter, declining 800 basis points from 50% to 42% of revenue. This resulted in diluted earnings per share of $1.76, an increase of just 11% compared to the prior-year quarter. The biggest cause for the financial shortfall was slowing user growth. Monthly active users increased to 2.27 billion, up 9.6% year over year, while daily active users grew to 1.49 billion, up 9.3% against the comparable quarter. European users contracted for the second quarter in a row, which hurt overall user growth. Facebook updated how it counts existing users during the quarter, which also took a toll on aggregate numbers. Expectations for the quarter For the fourth quarter, Facebook didn't provide specific metrics, rather, it provided the following guidance. The company is expecting revenue growth to decelerate by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage, which would result in a decrease of 5% to 9% compared to the 33% growth it achieved in the third quarter. Spending will also be higher, with full-year expenses growing between 50% and 55% compared with 2017 -- when spending topped $20.45 billion. Backing out the year-to-date expenses thus far puts fourth-quarter costs in a range of $8.84 to $9.87 billion. This would result in operating margins of between 40% and 46%, so there's a chance for sequential margin improvement. While we don't want to get caught up in Wall Street's short-term mindset, knowing its expectations can provide context regarding investors' overall sentiment toward the company. Analysts' consensus estimates anticipate revenue of $16.4 billion, up 26% year over year, near the midpoint of management's guidance, and earnings per share of $2.19, an increase of 52% over the prior-year quarter. Investor takeaway Challenges remain for Facebook and its investors. The company is continuing its ongoing battle with fake news and those who would seek to manipulate its users. The increase in spending is designed to address some of those issues. The slowing revenue growth will likely continue until user confidence is restored, which won't happen overnight. We'll know more when Facebook reports earnings on Wednesday. More From The Motley Fool Danny Vena owns shares of Facebook. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Facebook. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. | https://news.yahoo.com/decelerating-growth-continue-facebook-reports-211500618.html |
How Does Romance Is A Bonus Book Compare To Younger? | Translating the TV Land hit Younger, which stars Sutton Foster, Nico Tortorella and Debi Mazar, into a Korean drama was never going to be simple, but thats the task taken on by the new drama Romance Is A Bonus Book, starring Lee Jong Suk and Lee Na Young. The original comedy-drama was created and produced by Darren Starr and is based on the novel Younger by Pamela Redmond Satran. The k-drama version is produced by Studio Dragon for the Korean television station tvN and features Lee Na Youngs first drama appearance in nine years. Some plot alterations have taken place to appeal to a Korean audience, but it remains a winning story. Spoilers ahead: The first hurdle a Korean version has to overcome is the fact that Fosters character Lisa lies about her age. Its a lot harder to avoid talking about your age in Korea since so much of the way people relate to each other or even speak to each other is based on their relative age. Whats different is that instead of lying about her age, Lee Na Youngs character Kang Dan Bi has to lie about her education and experience, ditching accomplishments rather than years. Whats the same is that both women took time off from their careers to raise a child and that works against them when they apply for a job. Whats the same in both cases is that the main character lost her home due to her husbands shortcomings. And in both cases, the financially destitute, single mom has a daughter to support who is attending an expensive school. Both women are desperate for a job. Whats different is that Fosters character has a quirky artist friend who is prepared to share her loft in trendy Williamsburg. Lee Na Young's character has friends but no one is offering her a couch, so she is secretly living in Lee Jong Suks house. Its a classic k-drama trope that a man and woman are forced to live together before they find out how well they fit together. Both women work for a publishing company. In Younger, Fosters character Lisa wears a fun collection of funky secondhand clothes to her job. That might not work in a Korean office, so a fairy godmother of sorts gets her counterpart some designer clothes. In both cases the clothes make the character look younger than her years. The biggest difference between the original and the k-drama remake is that Lee Na Youngs character knows her future employer, who is obviously already in love with her. In this drama Lee Jong Suk, who recently played a doomed poet in Hymn of Death, plays a professor, editor, and author. He is five years younger than her and they've been friends since childhood. In the American story, Younger, Fosters character is actually the same age as her publisher, although pretending to be younger, but then considerably older than the young tattoo artist she dates. In both versions a younger man is interested in an older woman, but given the ages that the characters are supposed to be, Lee Na Youngs character could wind up in a love triangle with two younger men. The other romantic possibility is the freelance book designer played by Wi Ha Joon, who is supposed to be eight years younger. By the end of the first episode hes already charmed Lee Na Young's character by finding her lost heels and slipping them on her feet, Cinderella style. The younger man character definitely got a makeover in the k-drama version. He's far less edgy than Tortorellas tattoo artist. Dating a tattoo artist gives Fosters character an exciting new perspective, so it remains to be seen what Wi Ha Joons character will offer. Lee Jong Suk is popular actor with a long string of successful k-dramas, including Pinocchio, Doctor Stranger, W and While You Were Sleeping, so this drama is likely to earn good ratings. Even if it veers from the original American story, both stories still offer an important lesson. Judging women negatively for interrupting a career to raise children is short sighted. Raising a child confers many practical skills that can help you succeed in the workplace. Both stories explain why employers should perhaps step beyond simple hiring prejudices and take a chance. Exactly reproducing Younger would have been impossible, but the k-dramas compendium of romance, publishing and top stars, is likely to make Romance Is A Bonus Book a hit. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/joanmacdonald/2019/01/27/how-does-romance-is-a-bonus-book-compare-to-younger/ |
Are we seeing greater inclusivity in the movie industry? | Video On its 20th anniversary, Talking Movies assesses what progress has been made to bring about greater inclusivity in films. The rise of #OscarsSoWhite and #Metoo campaigns has seen the issues of gender disparity and a lack of diversity gain more of a profile. Superhero movie Black Panther was seen as a leap forward in diversity, but away from the big blockbusters other film-makers are also telling a wider range of stories. The tools to make films, the tools to create cinema have finally after 80, 90 years reached the people who didnt grow up in the suburbs, or who didnt grow up with a silver spoon and now those people have been empowered to tell their stories, says director Barry Jenkins. The BBCs Tom Brook reports. Talking Movies can be seen on BBC World News. | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/entertainment-arts-46964839/are-we-seeing-greater-inclusivity-in-the-movie-industry |
Is Orkney the best place to live in the UK? | The archipelago which lies 10 miles (16km) off Scotland's north coast, is famed for its spectacular landscapes and archaeological treasures but it is home to just 22,000 people, spread over 20 inhabitable islands. The Halifax Bank of Scotland Quality of Life survey ranked it above all other areas of the UK, with Richmondshire in North Yorkshire in second place, followed by Rutland in the East Midlands, Hambleton in North Yorkshire and Eden in Cumbria in fifth place. Orkney got the top spot based on its high employment levels, low crime rate, strong exam results, smaller primary class sizes and good health and happiness scores. But is it really possible to say that these factors outweigh the difficulties of living on an island, with the problems that brings. By Huw Williams, BBC Scotland reporter in Orkney Image copyright Colin Keldie Image caption Hoy is one of the 70 islands that make up the archipelago This survey, like many others before it, takes into account factors like residents' health and life expectancy, employment and crime rates. And, like many other similar surveys, it gives top place to Orkney. Organisations which promote the islands will seize on that fact. And many local people will undoubtedly be proud that Orkney regularly scores well in such league tables. But there may also be some scepticism - based largely on what reports like this don't ask about. They never seem to include things like the cost of living, reliability of transport links, robustness of digital connectivity and levels of fuel poverty. Even Orkney's biggest fans would have to concede the results might look rather different if those factors were included. All the top five are relatively sparsely populated, with Orkney averaging just 22 people per kilometre. Image copyright Amanda Ruddick Image caption Orkney is one of the best places in the UK to see the aurora borealis Image copyright Peter Starling Image caption Reflections of Scapa Pier, near Kirkwall, Orkney's main town. Other factors that were judged to be in Orkney's favour were the affordability of housing (an average house price of 173,349) and the high employment rate, with almost nine in ten (88%) 16-64 year-olds in work. The weekly average earnings in Orkney (671) were well below some other parts of Scotland and the UK but are slightly above the average. Image copyright Catherine Mackinnon Image caption Skara Brae is a Unesco world heritage site, which is older than Stonehenge and the Great Pyramid Image copyright Dr Sarah Christie Image caption The Italian Chapel was built by prisoners of war during World War Two People in Orkney also enjoy one of the lowest crime rates in Scotland, with 5.9 crimes per 10,000 population, compared to a national average of 44.1. Maybe this is why figures from the Office of National Statistics indicate adults living in Orkney are among the most happy, satisfied and content in the UK, with low anxiety rates. | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-47000276 |
Can commercial satellites be used for espionage? | For decades, the U.S. has relied on spy satellites to look deep into the territory of American adversaries, and for years, these were the cameras dominating Earth's orbit. Not anymore. As David Martin reports on 60 Minutes this week, there are now commercial companies putting small satellites in space and allowing customers to purchase panoramic images of Earth. As a result, the U.S. government no longer holds a monopoly on the photos taken from orbitand has no power to classify commercial images as top secret. One of those companies, Planet Labs, has put about 300 satellites into orbit, enough to image the entire landmass of Earth every day. The company has done it, in part, by reducing the dimension of its satellites. Government satellites are the size of a pickup truck; Planet Labs' are the size of a loaf of bread. Planet Labs' commercial satellites are no bigger than a loaf of bread. For comparison, government satellites are about the size of a pickup truck. The U.S. government sets limits on commercial satellite use and mandates that American companies obtain a license. It also restricts the optical resolution of satellites; commercial cameras are not allowed to zoom down to the same detail as a spy satellite. Still, the resolution comes relatively close. Martin told 60 Minutes Overtime that U.S. military officers could use commercial satellites for 90 percent of the intelligence they need. These new satellites make close monitoringif not outright espionagean option, particularly for governments that do not have their own advanced satellite technology. The first spy photos that American satellites took of the former Soviet Union were not as high quality as the photos that Planet Labs is now taking. The National Geospatial Intelligence Agency even uses Planet Labs images to get a more complete look at the world, particularly in places where U.S. spy satellites are not focused. The humanitarian uses for commercial satellite images are numerous. Planet Labs' photographs monitor change, creating before-and-after pictures of environmental transformations, such as deforestation, receding glaciers, and melting ice caps. Planet Labs Planet Labs Satellite images captured by Planet Labs Planet Labs But there is also plenty of potential for people to use commercial images in nefarious ways. For example, people with access to satellite images could keep a daily record of the number of U.S. Navy ships in port. "If the United States were trying to move an army, as they did in the first Persian Gulf War," Martin said, "move an army without the enemy seeing it, the satellite would see it." Anyone who obtained the images would also see an army on the move. Dictators wanting to cleanse an ethnicity would similarly be able to track movements of refugees, Martin said. Will Marshall, a Planet Labs co-founder, told Martin his company hired an ethics officer to monitor this specific question. "We have a process to review every single new client on a case-by-case basis," Marshall said. "Is it in line with our values?" U.S. sanctions prohibit companies like Planet Labs from selling to countries like North Korea or Russia. But, Martin said, that's what front companies are for. "You can, I think, rely on Planet to operate in good faith," Martin said. "Whether or not they can be fooled is another question." To watch David Martin's 60 Minutes report on small satellites, click here. The video above was produced by Will Croxton and Brit McCandless Farmer. It was edited by Will Croxton. Satellite photos courtesy of Planet Labs Inc. | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-commercial-satellites-be-used-for-espionage-60-minutes/ |
Would a Ban on Bitcoin Be as Pointless as the War on Drugs? | One of the common criticisms thrown Bitcoins way over the years has been that the system cannot work because governments will eventually ban it if it interferes with their ability to do things like control monetary policy or collect taxes. This has been the main criticism offered by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon when asked to comment on the peer-to-peer digital cash system. In a recent interview with Crypto Insiders Vlad Costea, Riccardo Spagni and Cayle Sharrock, who both work on projects related to the privacy-focused Monero altcoin, made the case that banning cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Monero would be just as pointless as the War on Drugs. Strong Financial Privacy is Almost Here When Costea asked his two guests what the private cryptocurrency space will look like in five or six years, Spagni explained his hope that the technology will reach a point where it becomes the norm. I personally hope privacy coins are going to be dominant enough that it will force everyone elses hand, said Spagni. Between Bitcoin having enhanced privacy through something like Lightning and TumbleBit, between Monero and the work being done on ZK-STARKs by Starkware, between Grin and Beam and Tari [working on MimbleWimble]. I mean all of these projects that are building various privacy-enhancing aspects Im hoping that its just going to force a reckoning where everyone will have to go: Okay, privacy is here. Its accessible. Strong privacy is here. Of course, user activity on centralized crypto asset exchanges is still under heavy surveillance, as indicated by the recent "crypto needs rules" ad campaign from digital asset exchange Gemini, which was co-founded by the Winklevoss Twins. You Cant Stop People from Using This Technology Once strong privacy in cryptocurrencies has been established, Spagni is of the belief that it cannot be banned or regulated. We cant stop people from going down this road because people are going to use it anyway, said Spagni. According to Spagni, a ban on a private cryptocurrency like Monero would be similar to a ban on marijuana, which may not be worth the associated costs. You have like this whole War on Drugs and youre arresting people for growing weed in their garden and, as a government, you expend billions of dollars on this, said Spagni. And ultimately, the thing ends up getting legalized anyway, and all youve done is waste time. In Spagnis view, there is a chance this same story will play out again with privacy-enhanced cryptocurrencies, as lawmakers are scared of the existence of private online transactions to affect basic government activities such as tax collection. Because if in fact you cant crack that at all, and government cant get in, then everybodys walking around with a Swiss bank account in their pocket. Over time, theyll start to realize that actually you can still do proper law enforcement without needing to see everyones transactions, added Spagni. You can still do proper tax collecting without needing to see into everyones bank account. Privacy Advocates are Not Criminals From Sharrocks view, privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Monero have the power to disable a governments ability to take away the fundamental right to privacy. Privacy is a right, and technology has allowed the governments and other state agencies to encroach more and more into that right, said Sharrock. And [encryption] is a reaction. Its a way to say, No, were taking that right back. Sharrock then added, People who advocate privacy in money and messaging are not criminals. I think theyre just trying to stand up for what is fundamentally a human right. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/ktorpey/2019/01/27/would-a-ban-on-bitcoin-be-as-pointless-as-the-war-on-drugs/ |
What follows, should U.S. troops indeed leave Syria? | When President Donald Trump abruptly announced on Dec. 19 that he was pulling all U.S. troops out of Syria, he suggested they were already on the way home. We have won against ISIS, the president said. Our boys, our young women, our men theyre all coming back, and theyre coming back now. His now was premature. More than a month later, the 2,000 or so U.S. military personnel remain in eastern Syria and administration policy remains as much a muddle as ever. American diplomats are still haggling with Turkey over the conditions under which U.S. troops will come out, and the Pentagon has announced no timeline for their removal. The holdup isnt merely logistical. Like it or not and the president often sounds as if he doesnt the United States still has significant interests in Syria. Despite Trumps claim, ISIS appears stubbornly alive, if not well. Its militants have launched two suicide attacks against U.S. troops in the past week, one of which killed four Americans. Iran, which Trump considers a malevolent enemy, has moved thousands of forces into Syria and could try to grab territory abandoned by U.S. troops as it seeks to further its influence. The latest war within a war, between Iran and Israel, has now escalated sharply. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his air force had struck Iranian-linked targets in Syria hundreds of times. Trumps initial order to remove U.S. troops was impulsive at best, taking senior aides by surprise and without any evident support from the Pentagon or his national security team. Indeed, his decision prompted Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to resign in protest due, in part, to concerns that Turkey would use the U.S. pullout to slaughter Kurdish fighters who have been stalwart American allies but oppose the regime in Ankara. Theres no plan for whats coming next, Brett McGurk, the former U.S. diplomat who ran the coalition against ISIS but also resigned early over the Syria decision, complained Sunday on CBS-TVs Face the Nation. Aides have scrambled to convince the president that an orderly withdrawal of 2,000 troops and their equipment will require more than 30 days, and they appear to have succeeded. By all reports, only a few vehicles have decamped. I never said we are doing it that quickly, Trump said on Jan. 6, or 18 days after he said they were coming back now. But the president and his advisers still havent solved a more complex problem: finding a post-withdrawal strategy that protects U.S. interests. So far, administration officials merely say they will pursue the same goals by working through allies. Its hard to see that as a blueprint for success. In a recent speech in Cairo, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said U.S. forces would continue to fight ISIS with U.S. and coalition airstrikes, but on the ground were looking for our partners to do more. U.S. officials long have pleaded with Saudi Arabia and other Arab allies to deploy a multinational force in Syria, to no avail. There is no capable ground force available. Organizing a new military coalition takes American leadership and takes American presence and weve just told the world that were not going to be present, McGurk said. In his Cairo speech, Pompeo reaffirmed another ambitious goal, saying the administration intended to expel every last Iranian boot from Syria. In Pompeos formulation, the Trump administration will push the Iranians out through diplomatic pressure and work with the United Nations a body that Trump has regularly scorned to bring peace and stability to the long-suffering Syrian people. If President Barack Obama had said that three years ago, then-Rep. Pompeo would have dismissed it as meaningless rhetoric. Still, when it comes to Irans presence, the Trump administration has the next best thing to a strategy: the Israeli air force. Netanyahu and Israeli military leaders decided more than a year ago that Irans forces posed a threat on their northern border, and they escalated airstrikes against Iranian military units there. Until then, Israeli warplanes had targeted Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militia, but mostly avoided Iranian forces. Now Israeli officials are publicizing their military offensive in a clear message to Tehran. Dont get the idea you can move in just because the Americans are moving out, a foreign policy expert in Jerusalem said. Thats not quite expelling every Iranian boot, but its more concrete than what the White House has offered. Lets be clear. Theres nothing inherently wrong with pulling U.S. troops out of Syria as long as its part of a well-crafted strategy. Obama reluctantly deployed troops in 2015 and planned to keep them in Syria only long enough to defeat ISIS. On that count, Trump agreed. The question bedeviling the Trump administration is how to continue pursuing American interests in Syria the suppression of terrorism and the containment of Iran after complying with the presidents order to leave. Better to settle on more plausible goals and recognize that the United States will still be engaged in a long twilight war in Syria even after our troops are gone. Trumps withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria isnt happening as quickly as he wanted. The administration has slowed the withdrawal for fear that it would allow Iran to expand its influence. An escalating war between Iran and Israel only heightens the stakes. | http://www.startribune.com/the-war-on-terror-but-what-follows-should-u-s-troops-indeed-leave-syria/504891902/ |
Can NZ keep allowing private equity poaching? | New Zealand needs to decide whether it's acceptable for so many companies to be snapped up by overseas private equity firms long before those companies are developed enough to list on NZX, says Financial Markets Authority chief executive Rob Everett. "If all the best investment opportunities are taken up by private equity, what's available for listing, more often than not, will have had all the juice squeezed out of it," Everett told BusinessDesk. NZX has tried a number of things to try to encourage smaller and earlier-stage companies to list by establishing a junior board. But three iterations the New Capital Market, Alternative Market and the short-lived NXT Market tried since early 2000 have all failed to fire. Advertisement NZX finally threw in the towel last year when it decided to fold the two remaining junior boards, AX and NXT, into the main board. "That, in many ways, is the crux of the issue," Everett says. "If you look at the New Zealand economy, most of the companies that are being bought by overseas private equity are a long way from being ready for listing," he says. It's this situation, and the consequent dearth of new equity listings on NZX, that have inspired the current formal review sponsored by NZX and the FMA. It is designed to try and revive listings and called Capital Markets 2029. Not only are new equity listings on NZX almost non-existent there were two last year, neither of them initial public offerings, and two in 2017, only one of them an IPO but takeovers and business failures mean the number of equity listings has dropped steadily year after year, most recently to 138 in December from 173 in December 2015 But Everett says the review needs to take a much broader look than at the impediments to listing. "You can't have a conversation about more listings unless you look at the entire ecosystem," he says. Another attempt to generate early stage capital to fund new businesses was including crowd-funding rules in the Financial Markets Conduct Act passed in 2013. Everett says legislators took "quite a brave step" creating the crowd-funding regime but it hasn't taken off in any size. An obvious question is whether merchant bankers and fund managers are less willing to take risks than they once were. TIL Logistics, with a current market capitalisation of $119.2 million, listed in late 2017 via a backdoor listing because its owners were told there was no support for an IPO. TIL's size and operations are reasonably comparable to those of Mainfreight, which raised $57 million by selling shares at 96 cents each in its 1996 float. Mainfreight has since expanded globally and its market capitalisation is now $3.2 billion, or $32.01 per share. TIL had already demonstrated an appetite for growth before its listing. Certainly, the evidence of recent rights issues from Fletcher Building's $750 million issue last year to Gentrack's $90 million and Seeka's $50 million issues appears to show that underwriters will only take "risks" when the outcome is a sure bet that could be achieved without underwriting. Everett says he has sat on the merchant banking and funds management side of the fence and notes the New Zealand firms are small by international standards. "It only takes one or two to go wrong" and potential New Zealand underwriters would be severely damaged, if not wiped out. The resources required to support both early stage capital raising through to an NZX listing are matters the review needs to examine, he says. "My impression is that there's a fairly strong sentiment among New Zealand investors that ideally they would like to be supporting the New Zealand economy people want to support New Zealand businesses," Everett says. "At the moment, the opportunities for them to do so aren't there because New Zealand businesses aren't listing and there aren't mechanisms further down the chain." Now is a good time for such a conversation, he says. He would have preferred to get the review up and running last year, but the FMA and Reserve Bank of New Zealand were distracted by their reviews of the banking and insurance industries. But the delay was also due in part to the time needed to find the right people available to run the review former FNZC head of investment banking Martin Stearne is leading the review with accounting firm EY providing support. "There's been a fair amount of warming up before we got to this." The results are expected to be published in the September quarter. Everett says it is important to get the review launched before the next election in 2020. "I think we've got time to get something meaningful done this year before people start to get distracted with elections." The problem isn't isolated to New Zealand the United States and Britain are having similar conversations about how to keep up a flow of new listings and to keep their stock exchanges growing, he says. "Most stock exchanges are struggling with how do we attract new listings, how do we keep growing." One school of thought is that the rise of exchange-traded passive funds - and NZX manages several such funds - may be a reason smaller companies are starved of capital. Smaller companies typically don't qualify for inclusion in the indices such funds track. | https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12197388 |
Who was the mysterious Madame Valerie? | Image copyright Shutterstock Image caption Patisserie Valerie, Old Compton Street, 1951 Madame Valerie founded Patisserie Valerie in 1926 and, as you can read on the company's website, it's quite an inspiring tale. From her caf in London's Soho, the Belgian introduced continental cakes and pastries to the English. Not even the Luftwaffe, which destroyed her first cafe in a bombing raid in 1941, could stop her. Madame Valerie just set up shop around the corner. Stirring stuff indeed, but there is a problem - there's not much evidence that the story is true. Right now the survival of Patisserie Valerie is in the balance. Administrators are hoping to sell 122 outlets, after closing 71. Its future is murky, but so is its past. Tracing the company's history is a tricky business, not least because the owners could not supply any information. I asked Patisserie Valerie if they had evidence to support the story of Madame Valerie. They couldn't produce anything. And no-one I spoke to while researching this piece even knew Madame Valerie's full name. Wrong place, wrong time Patisserie Valerie's website says the original shop was opened in 1926 by Madame Valerie on Frith Street. But according to an edition of Soho Clarion magazine from 1988, the first Patisserie Valerie was opened by Carlos and Laura Fonteyn in the early 1920s, at 59/60 Dean Street, a parallel street. And there is evidence supporting that. The National Archives in London holds Post Office Directories going back almost 200 years. Patisserie Valerie first appears in those directories in 1925 at 59/60 Dean Street - not on Frith Street. Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Tracing the company's history has been tricky Electoral records for 1926 show Laura Mito Victoria Fonteyn was registered at Dean Street - supporting, but not necessarily proving, that she was one of the founders. Carlos Fonteyn turns out to be her father-in-law, and a man with some catering experience. He was the owner of Grand Patisserie Belge, also registered at 59/60 Dean Street during the 1920s. Thanks must go to Sarah Buttery, who works with the Soho Society, for helping uncover these details. Bombshell There is no mention of a Madame Valerie. It is possible that she was an employee of the firm, so may not appear in historical documents like electoral, tax and insolvency records. Perhaps the Fonteyns supplied money and expertise to help the Belgian get her shop going. But so far I have not uncovered any evidence of that. However, there is evidence that the first shop was destroyed by the Luftwaffe. Air raid records show a devastating Luftwaffe raid in the early hours of 11 May 1941. Image copyright Getty Images Image caption London's West End was among the areas hit by Luftwaffe bombing raids in 1941 Bombs fell all over London that night, but one high explosive bomb hit the corner of Old Compton Street and Dean Street. Among the properties destroyed was Patisserie Valerie. In 1942 it disappears from the Post Office Directories. Well the name Patisserie Valerie does not reappear in the Post Office Directories until 1958, and at 44 Old Compton Street in Soho which, until it closed this week, was the chain's oldest branch. For years this property had been the home of Theo Vermeirsch, described as a pastry cook. Soho Clarion magazine says he took over Patisserie Valerie and kept the name going. The photograph at the top of the piece is listed as from 1951, so the shop seems to have been a presence in Soho then. Memories In trying to find out more about Madame Valerie I spoke to some former owners. In 1987 Patisserie Valerie, still with only one store, was bought by the Scalzo brothers, Roberto, Enzo and Victor. They built it up into a much larger chain and sold it to Luke Johnson in 2006. Enzo and Victor are both "confident" that Madame Valerie did exist and did oversee the Old Compton Street store. They can remember several customers who talked about Madame Valerie. Unfortunately, it's so long ago, that they couldn't put me in touch with anyone who remembers, or who was alive, during Madame Valerie's era. Enzo, who now runs the Best of Italy car rally, thinks the caf chain was contacted by someone claiming to be a relation of Madame Valerie, but so far Patisserie Valerie has not been able to confirm that. Perhaps with more historical research Madame Valerie will emerge from documents or memories, but from my initial sift of the evidence available, she remains an elusive figure. Tell us by emailing [email protected]. Please include a contact number if you are willing to speak to a BBC journalist. You can also contact us in the following ways: | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46821488 |
Who Is Paying Their Fair Share? | The chart shows average tax ratesthe share of total income actually paid in taxesrather than marginal rates. The steady increase in average taxes for the bottom 50% is driven mainly by rising payroll taxes. 1) What people actually paid. A reader sends this chart, from a 2017 paper by the economists Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman, showing where the effective burden of taxation has fallen, over the decades. Its worth looking at closely. Of course, there are a million caveats. In 1986, part of the argument for lowering rates was to reduce the appeal of tax shelters and other loopholes, and broaden the base of income subject to taxes. The fact that the U.S. had sky-high progressive taxes during its decades of post-World War II obviously does not prove that the same rates would make sense now. And so on. But the historical record is worth being aware of. The reminder, in turn, was tied to a discussion at Davos this past week, in which a leading tech entrepreneur, Michael Dell, had scoffed at the idea of imposing a 70 percent top-bracket tax rate, asking a question to name one! country where such rates had coexisted with a strong economy. The name one country was, of course, the mid-20th-century United States. The reason for showing the chart was as a reminder of how significantly tax policy changed about 30 years ago, with the Tax Reform Act of 1986 , which was under Ronald Reagan but had bipartisan support. For more than a half-century before that change, the top-bracket rate had always been at least 50 percent, had been as high as 94 percent, and was mostly above 70 percent. Since that change, its been in the 30snow at 37 percent. In a previous item , I included a table of U.S. top bracket marginal income tax rates over the past century. This is the tax rate youd pay on the next dollar of taxable income, whenever you hit the highest tax bracket. The reader who sent the chart adds: Certainly, we may need higher tax rates to pay for essential services. There is much work to be done. That said, as you likely know, the high marginal tax rates of the past do not align with the relatively static effective tax rate that was actually paid by the wealthy due to exemptions and other changes. It is not that much lower today than it was in the 1950s. Yes, taxes might need to go up, but we shouldn't mislead people into thinking the rich actually paid more in the past. By any reasonable standard, my family would be considered well-off. Not the 0.01 percent with Bill Gates, but likely in the top 5 percent. We are very fortunate. No, I wouldn't really want to pay higher taxes, but I realize everyone in the upper-middle class on up may need to do so to make a shared investment in our country. It seems to me the way to truly MAGA would be to invest in the education of children from all backgrounds, work toward a greener future, welcome immigrants who are eager to join our society, and work with other nations to help alleviate human suffering all over the globe. As a New Yorker, I love that anyone can become one by rooting for the Yankees or the Mets. One day you are from China or Jamaica, the next you are part of the fabric of the city with a shared sense of responsibility and possibility. To me, that's America. I'll climb down off my soapbox now! 2) Taxes as proxy for public investment. Another reader points to an important book on how the U.S. economy worked during its era of post-World War II growth. This is American Amnesia, by Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson. The reader says: I wanted to point out that it would be useful to consider the work of Yale's Jacob Hacker, who shows that the U.S. economy was the most productive when the top tax rates were what now seems like very high levels. His thesis is that the high rates signified that the levels of government expenditure/investment was also high, which he argues drives overall economic growth. He points out that economic growth performed the best when tax rates were high and unions were strong. Nuance doesn't seem to work, especially in this day and age, so from a political perspective, if I were advising the democrats, I'd go for the OC pitch that I would slap a high rate on income over $10 million/year. There would be the usual socialist tag bandied around, but I suspect even many republicans would think that once you were raking in $10 million in one year, taxing any amount over that would seem fair. In their book, Hacker and Pierson write about the change in the Republican partys attitude toward taxes, starting with the Contract with America under which Newt Gingrich won GOP control of the House in the 1994 mid-term elections: From 1994 on, a simple principle seemed to dictate GOP tax stances: the more a particular tax fell on the wealthiest Americans, the more important it was to cut it. Both Reagan and George H.W. Bush had signaled that a progressive tax code remained a priority and, in 1986 and 1990, had supported tax packages based on that principle. But after the Gingrich revolt, Republicans focused increasingly on tax cuts for the highest income groupscuts in the estate, dividends, and capital gains taxes, as well as the top marginal income tax rate. They did so even though public opinion polls have indicated consistently that voters biggest complaint about the federal tax system is that the rich do not pay their fair share. 3) A different view on fair share. On the other hand, from another reader: Michael Dell was right It isn't as simple as that, and it is misleading to point back to the earlier decades to make this claimunless of course if a new 70 percent bracket today would be effectively the same as back then (allowing for all of the loopholes, caps, etc. Of course, if the new 70 percent bracket would not have all of those loopholes, etc. leading to an actual effective tax rate of ~70 percent, then Dell's question would come back - "Show me where that has worked before"... Related to this topic, it is such as shame when politicians (and others) make the statement like "It's time that they pay their fair share" (referring to the "rich"). We all know that the vast majority of taxes are paid by 15-20 percent of the taxpayers. Fifty percent of the citizens pay $0. It's playing off/creating a "victimhood" mentality, which ultimately is bad for our country (but good for political points in the short term). For the record, the 50 percent of the citizens pay $0 claim requires assuming away the largest tax that lower-income households pay, namely the payroll tax. The paper by Piketty, Saez, and Zucman shows that in fact the lower 50% of households pay not $0 but rather about a quarter of their total income in taxes: 4) Very best part of our history. Finally for today, from another reader, in the Midwest: | https://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2019/01/who-is-paying-their-fair-share-more-on-the-history-of-tax-rates/581407/?utm_source=feed |
Is Taiwan Semiconductor a Buy? | While dividend investors love their payouts, they face a conundrum: Rising interest rates in the U.S. have made steady dividend payers less attractive. In addition, companies with steady dividends are often big, mature companies. In this age of exciting technological disruption, many such companies in, say, retail and oil are having difficulties adapting. However, the tech world itself has matured, and offers several promising candidates that pay out secure and rising dividends. One such company is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (NYSE: TSM), which has more than doubled its payout over the past five years, from $0.50 in 2014 to $1.34 today -- good for 167% growth and a current yield of 3.7%. Taiwan Semi is the world's largest outsourced semiconductor manufacturer, with over 50% market share. TSM manufactures chips for other companies, including Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). There are several reasons Taiwan Semiconductor could be a long-term buy for dividend investors, but also some potential red flags in the near term. Here is a closer look at this unique company. a young man in a suit stands in front of a blackboard with question marks written above his head. More Image source: Getty Images. Reasons to buy TSM One of the more interesting tech stories of 2018 was Taiwan Semiconductor beating Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) to become the first foundry to manufacture leading-edge 7nm semiconductor chips. Intel is one of only two semiconductor companies (the other is Samsung (NASDAQOTH: SSNLF)) to manufacture its own semiconductors. For years, Intel had been dominant in leading-edge nodes, which pack more transistors into ever smaller and smaller die sizes. So, the lower the number of nanometers, the more advanced the chip. Intel had been the first to produce 14nm chips back in 2013. However, Intel has stumbled in its progression to 10nm chips (which are equivalent to TSM's 7nm node). In its most recent projection, Intel announced its 10nm offerings won't be available until the end of 2019. Meanwhile, TSM began producing 7nm chips at scale in 2018. Despite Intel's larger size, TSM's position as a manufacturer of so many different kinds of chips (mobile, PC, data center, GPUs) for a variety of clients has given it wide-ranging expertise. That cumulative knowledge, along with Intel's stumbles, seems to have allowed TSM to catch up and surpass Intel in the race to 7nm. Furthermore, the other large outsourced chip manufacturer, GlobalFoundries, which is privately held, announced late last year that it was abandoning 7nm in order to focus on specialized trailing-nodes (higher nm, less advanced), due to 7nm's complexity and cost. That left TSM as one of only two manufacturers (it and Samsung) to produce 7nm chips. As the semiconductor market rapidly expands, more and more companies, are going "fabless," (designing their own chips, while outsourcing manufacturing). Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) spun out its manufacturing arm, GlobalFoundries, years ago. Meanwhile, new chip upstarts, as well as giant companies such as Apple that make their own processors, don't want to invest in expensive manufacturing fabs. All of these players, large and small alike, are turning more and more to Taiwan Semiconductor for manufacturing. That's a great long-term competitive position to be in. | https://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-semiconductor-buy-013400237.html |
What next for Brexit? | Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29 (AFP Photo/JOHN THYS) London (AFP) - Despite the humiliating rejection of Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal, Britain is no closer to knowing the end result of its vote to leave the European Union. A raft of amendments to be voted on by MPs on Tuesday threaten to further muddy the waters as the clock ticks down to Britain's scheduled departure from the EU on March 29. Three ultimate scenarios remain -- leaving without an official deal, leaving with a very similar deal or no Brexit at all. But each path is fraught with uncertainty, political volatility, constitutional logjams and an increasingly embittered electorate. Here are the potential next steps: - No deal - Britain is legally on track to leave the EU with or without a deal on March 29, unless it delays or stops the process. A no-deal scenario threatens to trigger a recession in Britain and markedly slow the EU's economic growth, as well as causing significant legal disruption. The world's fifth-biggest economy could lose preferential access to its largest export market overnight, affecting every sector, leading to rising costs and disruption at British ports. As D-Day looms, the government has conducted visible displays of its ramped-up no-deal preparations over the past few weeks. But speculation is growing that the government, under pressure from parliament, could seek to delay the process and take no-deal off the table. - Delay - Some amendments introduced in parliament are seeking to delay Britain's departure date, although all the other 27 EU countries would have to agree. A potential complication is that elections to the European Parliament are due in late May and the new chamber is set to sit on July 2. Some of Britain's 73 seats have already been reallocated. A delay to give May time to pass legislation enshrining her Brexit deal would likely command widespread support, said leading pollster John Curtice. But Brexit supporters would be deeply opposed to a delay motivated by a desire "to go away and have a referendum or a general election or softer Brexit", he added. Brussels also may not be so keen if the delay would simply translate into more months of political gridlock. - Second referendum - Growing numbers of MPs are seeking a new referendum to reverse the 2016 result, when the Leave campaign won by 52 percent to 48 percent. But supporters admit they do not currently have the numbers in parliament to make it happen. No law prevents Britain from doing it all over again, but many question whether a revote would be democratic -- or resolve anything. May has warned that another vote "would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics". It also threatens to be just as divisive as the last one, with opinion polls showing the country is still split over the issue. - Try to get another deal - After MPs overwhelmingly rejected the deal agreed between May and Brussels, May held talks with lawmakers across parliament as well as business figures and trade unions to try to find a way through. The key sticking point is the deal's "backstop" solution to keep the Irish border open, which has the potential to leave Britain indefinitely tied to some form of EU customs union. Influential Brexit supporters say that with changes to the backstop, they could support the agreement. EU leaders have said they are willing to talk further, including on plans for the future trading relationship, but have repeatedly said they do not want to reopen the deal itself. - General election - Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn sought to oust May's government by calling a confidence vote after her Brexit deal was defeated, but she won. There is a risk that her Conservative party and their Northern Irish allies, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), could turn against her if she pursues either a "softer" or a no-deal Brexit. But if not, the only other way to force an election is for the prime minister herself to gamble and call a snap vote to break the impasse. - No Brexit - Some lawmakers favour the nuclear option of cancelling Brexit altogether, despite the threat of widespread public rage. Finance minister Philip Hammond even told business leaders last week that Article 50 could be rescinded. burs-jwp/ar/gd | https://news.yahoo.com/next-brexit-014916073.html |
Will Artificial Intelligence Soon Tell Us How To Live? | What people dont realize is that we are on the verge of a paradigmatic shift in thinking on par with the Copernican Revolution, says Dr. Angel Iscovich. The way we make our most personal decisionsfrom our partners, to our health choices, to yes, even our daily routines is going to transform due to the falling cost of data storage and rising computing power. If you only happened to glance at what Dr. Iscovich said, let me repeat the latter part as it bears further mention. According to him, in the future, AI will advise us how to structure our days for the most fulfilling life. It will literally tell us what to do for optimal living. Iscovichs assertion comes as the result of a new book he is writing with six-time New York Times bestselling author Joe Garner and myself entitled, Time Bubble: The Art and Science of Routine. An experienced CEO in the healthcare industry, Iscovich is chairman of the Board of Directors for Potentia Analytics, named in 2018 as one of the Top 10 Intelligence Solution Providers by Healthcare Tech. He received his post graduate training in Psychiatry from the Maine Medical Center in Portland, Maine. While serving as Associate Clinical Professor at the USC Keck School of Medicine in the LA County Medical Center, Iscovich became intrigued by the subject of routine from witnessing how humans behave in stressful environments, such as emergencies. Interestingly, the harrowing E.R. frontline experience pales in many ways to the environment we all live in today, says Iscovich. Its hard not to be absorbed and disturbed by the events of our times: mass killings and unpredictable violence; regional wars, which devastate whole countries, displacing millions; intolerance of others race or religious beliefs and personal freedoms. Then theres political strife, which, as we all know, has become increasingly strident and belligerent. On top of these, we are bombarded daily with a barrage of stimuli and distractions, especially through our smartphones. Though Iscovich works in the tech sector, the very eye of the storm when it comes to perpetuating our 24/7/365 go-go culture, his new book bucks 21st century conventional wisdom by suggesting the best way to navigate our noisy new world is to reject constant novelty to reduce the relentless pelting of fresh content minute by minute. Iscovichs disruptive big idea is that we need to carve out mental space for ourselves away from the madding hubbub to bring order to our lives. Case study after case study, cited in the book, bolsters Iscovichs thinking, revealing humans not only require structure, they thrive in it. At every stage of life, people do best when following a routine or what he terms a time-bubble. A time-bubble is a kind of mental barrier between the world and the individual, comprised of the activities we choose to occupy our days. According to Iscovichs findings, when we stick to a plan when we do the same things in a predictable fashion we develop balance and wellbeing, despite the curve balls life throws at us. The reality is, as biological organisms, our bodies and minds perform best when maintaining an equilibrium, explains Iscovich. We feel best when our environment is familiar, and our lives possess consistency. We need look no further than the case study of Angel Martinez to witness Iscovichs theory in action. Prior to serving as Chairman of the Board of Deckers Brands (best known for Uggs and Tevas), Martinez co-founded Reebok. A high performer in the business world, Martinezs achievements are especially impressive in light of his personal history. A native from Cuba, he didnt see his parents for more than thirty-four years. His grandmothers sister and her husband adopted him when he was three-years-old before fleeing to the US. Unfortunately, the Cuban revolution prevented his immediate family from joining him in the South Bronx for decades. Bereft of a traditional support system and wanting to make his parents proud back home, Martinez vowed to succeed. He built a disciplined personal routine based on the physical act of running. The summer of my freshman year, I decided I was going to run five miles every single day, Martinez says. To hold himself accountable, he pledged that if he missed his quota, he would run ten miles to make up for it. I had a job where I remember getting off at 4:30 p.m., says Martinez. From there, I would go home, and by 5:00, I was off and running. I really had to hustle, too, because I had another job that began at 7:00 p.m., and I didnt want to miss putting in the five miles I promised myself. As Iscovich recounts in the book, Martinezs self-imposed time-bubble, centered around running, developed within him a strong work ethic, which later paid off handsomely. After graduating from college, he opened running-shoe stores in Mountain Valley and Alameda, which led to Reebok, a tremendously profitable company. Martinezs example demonstrates Iscovichs larger point: developing and living within a consistent routine can bring the body the balance it craves. Of course, another word for balance is homeostasis. And as biology informs us, all organisms on Earth strive for homeostasis: to find food when hungry, warmth when cold, shelter from the elements. But humans strive for other things, too: meaning and fulfillment. The German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche once wrote, He who has a why to live can bear almost any how. Whats different about the era we live in as opposed to Nietzsches 19th century, is that with the emergence of technology, in particular AI, we neednt depend on our own brains to develop the best routine; instead we can outsource such decision-making to thinking machines. As it turns out, computers know a lot more about us than we do. Just consider the Fitbit. Nonjudgmental, available on demand, and endlessly patient, it contains an infallible record of our biometric data. Right now, many users only utilize their devices to monitor their health goals, whether they be getting better REM-sleep or walking a certain number of steps per day. But this only represents a tiny sliver of whats possible when it comes to AIs full range of capabilities. What distinguishes third-wave computing (todays processors) from past computing epochs is their ability not merely to process complex calculations but to offer predictive insights. Put simply: AI can learn from data sets to offer us helpful suggestions. Our computers can do our thinking for us. Certainly, it might seem odd to turn to a computer to tell how us how to better live, but there is precedent behind this notion. Already, the AI-based traffic app Waze tells us which route to take to and from destinations. Similarly, dating sites like Match.com and eHarmony rely on algorithms backed by big data to determine romantic matches rather than something as analog as butterflies in the stomach. Its important to note turning to technology is not the only answer to solve the crisis humanity finds itself in. Iscovichs book emphasizes the importance of creating a stable environment while pointing out AI is an invention created by human intelligence and therefore one of our greatest tools and assets. Still, outsourcing how we make life choices to a computer fits within a pattern of evolving thought processes surrounding decision-making. In the last few thousand years humans have shifted beliefs when it comes to which authorities to follow. Once upon a time, kings ruled us with divine authority from God. Later, we internalized our decision-making as religion lost its sway and modern liberalist ideas swept the world. However, in the future, its conceivable many of our choices will be influenced or made for us through algorithms based on data. Recognizing our growing dependence on predictive technology, Iscovich is developing a software application offering various routines people could employ to bring balance to their lives and even possibly attain something as subjective as purpose and meaning. This idea isnt as far-fetched as one might think, says Iscovich. AI requires data to work. It thrives on information. Our app would function similarly to a smartwatch, learning about a person all day long. It would take in biometric data, such as heart rate, blood pressure, and breathing rate to learn whats working in a persons life and what might be improved. Though the app is still in the early stages, Iscovich conceives of a time in the not too distant future when the technology works in tandem with users goals. For instance, after analyzing data, the app might suggest new ways to structure your own time-bubble. It could recommend you break up your day by doing twenty-minute naps or meditations to lower your resting heart rate, says Iscovich. It could also get you out of your comfort zone, establishing new neural pathways by suggesting you do unusual activities. It might recommend you take the whole day off to visit a new city. Likewise, it could tell you to explore a museum to get inspired based on what it knows about your interests. Though the promise behind the app is its ability to know us better than ourselves and therefore suggest ways to live more happily, it might feel like relying on AI to plan ones life is akin to cheating. After all, Know thyself is the commandment Socrates, the father of Philosophy, once extolled. Maybe. But not necessarily. Burdened by arduous responsibilities, jobs, and duties, existence in the 21st century is far from a walk in the park, even for the most affluent of us. In my clinical practice, I saw so many patients dissatisfied by the ways their lives were going, says Iscovich. They were lost, confused. Miserable. So many of us feel alone and sad today. Why not turn to outside assistance? Certainly, technology is no panacea for all of the problems we face as a society and as people. Moreover, even if Iscovich succeeds in developing an app for suggesting our ideal routines, there will never be an app that can live our lives for us. Existence itself will continue to be our privilege and our burden as thinking carbon-based creatures. However, with the growing power of AI to improve our quality of life, a time-bubble app just might bring us greater balance, meaning, and happiness. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/01/27/will-artificial-intelligence-soon-tell-us-how-to-live/ |
Did a Russian-Made Missile Strike an F-35? | According to the available information, the Syrian Defense Forces used a S-200 missile against the Israeli warplane, Southfront claimed. Pro-Russian media are claiming that an Israeli F-35I was hit and damaged by a Russian-made S-200 surface-to-air missile during an Israeli air strike in Syria earlier this month. Israel says one of its F-35s was damagedafter colliding with a bird. (This first appeared in October of 2017.) The story begins on October 16, when Israel announced that its aircraft had struck a Syrian SAM battery near Damascus that had fired two hours earlier on Israeli reconnaissance planes flying over Lebanon. The attack damaged the missile battery, and no Israeli aircraft were hit, according to Israel. Coincidentally or not, the incident happened the same day that Russias defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, arrived in Israel for talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman. However, Southfront.org, a website that covers the Russian military and its intervention in the Syrian Civil War, suggested a different story. According to the available information, the Syrian Defense Forces used a S-200 missile against the Israeli warplane, Southfront claimed. Recommended: 5 Worst Generals in U.S. History Southfront could not resist pointing out that a much-vaunted F-35 stealth fighter had been hit by a missile that dates back to the 1960s. This Soviet-made missile is the most advanced long range anti-aircraft system operated by the Syrian military. Even in this case, its old-fashioned in terms of modern warfare. However, the evidence cited by Southfront seems rather tenuous. Hours after the Israeli military announced the strike on the Syrian missile battery, Israeli media reported that an Israeli F-35 had been damaged by a bird strike two weeks before (Google translation here). The plane reportedly landed safely, but the Israeli Air Force did admit that it wasnt sure whether the plane will fly again. Israel has taken delivery of only seven F-35Is so far, with a total of fifty on order. Recommended: 5 Reasons No Nation Wants to Go to War with Israel The incident allegedly took place two weeks ago but was publicly reported only on October 16, Southfront noted. However, Israeli sources were not able to show a photo of the F-35 warplane after the bird collision. Southfront didnt explain why the Israeli Air Force would feel a need to release a photo of a damaged stealth aircraft. As U.S. defense website The Drive points out, the F-35 is just entering Israeli service now, and wouldnt likely be flying missions over Syria just yet unless there was some kind of emergency (and Israel has plenty of F-15s and F-16s to handle those right now). Nor is it optimized for the kind of photographic reconnaissance missions that Israel flies over Lebanon. As The Drive summed up rather neatly, Although we cannot rule the possibility out entirely, as Freud would saysometimes a bird strike is just a bird strike. In any event, whats most interesting about this story isnt whether an F-35 was hit by a Russian missile. Like the existence of UFOs, the story may or not be true, but we need more than circumstantial evidence to give it any credence. No, the interesting part is that the F-35 has become such a symbol of U.S. technological prowessor incompetencethat any rumor that an F-35 has been damaged or shot down in combat will draw attention. Russia and its boosters will pounce on any suggestion that an F-35 has been hit, and no doubt the pro- F-35 crowd will counter those suggestions accordingly. Already there are reportsagain, just reportsthat Israeli F-35s have flown combat missions. Given that the U.S. and Israeli air forces are among the most active in the world, sooner or later the F-35 will really, truly see combat. But the rumors are out there now. This is just the beginning. Michael Peck is a contributing writer for the National Interest. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook. Image: Creative Commons. Read full article | https://news.yahoo.com/did-russian-made-missile-strike-100100414.html |
What is proper procedure when the crosswalk countdown starts? | Open this photo in gallery A crosswalk at the corner of Richards and Nelson Streets in Vancouver. I always wait, and my friends say Im being ridiculous. They say that if it says five seconds, youve got five seconds to get across. Gabriela, Toronto That countdown isnt a challenge if you havent started crossing before it starts, youre supposed to stay put. Except plenty of us dont know that. I got in an argument with a pedestrian whod started crossing and said I have 10 seconds left, said Toronto Police Sgt. Clint Stibbe. The countdown is how much time you have left when youre in the roadway already. Story continues below advertisement When the countdown starts, its accompanied by a flashing hand. That hand means dont walk. Section 144 (27) of Ontarios Highway Traffic Act (HTA) says no pedestrian approaching pedestrian-control signals and facing a solid or flashing dont walk indication shall enter the roadway. Legally, you can only start crossing when the walk signal is on. If you step off the curb to cross when that flashing hand is there whether its flashing or solid you could face a $35 fine. Before intersections had timers, there was just the flashing hand, and crossers wouldnt know how long they had to get across, Stibbe said. The countdown was supposed to help solve that. But plenty of pedestrians think it means you can keep crossing until the last second. A 2013 study published in the journal Injury Prevention showed that after countdown timers were introduced in Toronto, the number of pedestrians hit by cars while crossing increased by 26 per cent, and serious injuries and fatalities increased by 51 per cent. Story continues below advertisement Story continues below advertisement When the countdown starts, dont cross The exact rules vary by province, but theyre all similar youre not supposed to cross when that hand is flashing, period. If you see anything other than the white walk signal, youre supposed to remain on the curb until the light resets, said Const. Jason Doucette, Vancouver Police spokesman. Even if it says 27 seconds and you think you can make it, youre supposed to stay. If you try to beat the clock in British Columbia, its a $109 fine. If you do race across, you could get in the way of cars trying to turn left before the light changes. And they might not see you. Police couldnt immediately give numbers on how many tickets they give out for crossing against the countdown. We dont get brownie points for giving out tickets, so we focus more on education, Doucette said. Story continues below advertisement When police do educate crossers on the rules, the lesson doesnt always sink in. This university student said, I get it, am I free to go? and then she looks and sees she has ten seconds and races across, Doucette said. In Toronto, the walk sign flashes for a minimum of seven seconds. Its not long enough to get across, so pedestrians also get the time shown on the timer to clear the intersection. Even with the timer, it might not be enough time for everyone, especially seniors. In Toronto, the city is retiming intersections to account for a slower average walking speed, lowered from 1.2 metres a second (4.3 km/h) to one metre a second (3.6 km/h). Still, you should try to get to the other side as quickly as you safely can; the crosswalk probably isnt the best place to text or fool around. Drivers should expect people to be in a crosswalk, but that doesnt guarantee safety, police say. The safest place is on the sidewalk, Doucette said. Get across the intersection and get your head out of you phone. Send it to [email protected]. Canadas a big place, so let us know where you are so we can find the answer for your city and province. Stay on top of all our Drive stories. We have a Drive newsletter covering car reviews, innovative new cars and the ups and downs of everyday driving. Sign up for the weekly Drive newsletter, delivered to your inbox for free. Follow us on Instagram, @globedrive. | https://www.theglobeandmail.com/drive/culture/article-what-is-proper-procedure-when-the-crosswalk-countdown-starts/ |
Would we pay higher stamp duty if we marry before buying together? | Q Please can you advise me whether my partner and I should wait until we marry to buy a new home together or not. I own three rental properties and would probably need to sell my current home to buy with my partner. I am unsure if we would be liable for the extra stamp duty on the purchase if we marry before buying, or if I alone would pay on 50% of the purchase if we are tenants in common. VF A How you jointly own property whether as tenants in common or joint tenants makes no difference to how stamp duty is charged. Both the standard and higher rates of stamp duty are charged on the full purchase price of the property. There was a fairly technical and untested tax loophole around the legal definition of what constituted a major interest in a property, which meant that married couples could, in theory, get out of paying the higher rate of stamp duty by being tenants in common rather than joint tenants. But this loophole was closed last November, so how you own property no longer makes a difference. If you sell your current home and buy another one to live in with your partner/spouse, the standard rather than higher rate of stamp duty will apply because you would be selling a main residence and replacing it with another. However, if your partner already owns property and doesnt plan to sell it to buy with you, the higher rates will apply whether you are married or not. But if they were to sell their old home within three years of buying another with you, you would be able to get a rebate of the extra 3% added to the standard stamp duty rate. | https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/28/would-we-pay-higher-stamp-duty-if-we-marry-before-buying-together |
Are John Krasinski and Emily Blunt Hollywoods new golden couple? | The power pair are filling up newsfeeds with their #relationshipgoals content. Since they have been stepping out together on the awards circuit, theyve been generating most adorable couple in Hollywood headlines (The Hollywood Reporter even got the exclusive rare joint interview), as well as #CoupleGoals hashtags and fashion approval. The most irritating thing about them is that theres nothing irritating about them. As moviedoms First Family, they are perfect casting. Krasinski is the smart dude-next-door: Jim from The Office with added Jack Ryan heroism. Blunt is the refined Brit with kick-ass credentials: Mary Poppins/Young Victoria meets Edge of Tomorrow. Right now, they could probably clean up with a joint-authored vegan cookbook, or a range of organic bed linens. Sign up to our Film Today email Read more There are many famous actors who married civilians and lived happily ever after, but when two stars collide, the odds are stacked against them. They have competing careers, egos and personality flaws to balance. You came together as equals, a few years later youre Ryan Phillippe gritting your teeth through Reese Witherspoons Oscar speech and wishing youd done Cruel Intentions 2. Doubling your star-wattage also immediately turns you into a Couple of Interest for the paparazzi, which is sure to make matters worse. The best option is to pretend youre not really married and hope nobody puts one and one together like Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds, say. Krasinski and Blunt pledged to keep their careers separate. But they then broke their rules by making hit horror A Quiet Place together. It was one of the highest-grossing movies of 2018 (budget: $17m; box office: $341m worldwide). Between that and Blunts Poppins, they are practically glued to the red carpet, which means more #CoupleGoals content, such as the recent Hollywood Reporter romcom-like video Q&A. There is currently a vacancy for this type of couple: successful yet domestically cosy; stable, relatable, and not the least bit dangerous. Since the departure of the Obamas, America has hardly had the White House to look to for such role models. British royalty, steeped in unearned privilege, doesnt really cut it, either. Movie stars must fill the void. However, compared to the tempestuous, extravagant, semi-mythical relationships of Liz Taylor and Richard Burton, or Winona Ryder and Johnny Depp, or even Angelina Jolie and Billy Bob Thornton, todays conscious couples seem rather safe and dull. Blunt and Krasinski are probably fine with that, and good luck to them. As long as they dont win any awards this month they should be all right, but one over-gushy acceptance speech from either could tip the balance. | https://www.theguardian.com/film/2019/jan/28/bluntinski-why-john-krasinski-and-emily-blunt-are-hollywoods-new-golden-couple |
How dangerous is marijuana for young men's mental health? | A bestselling anti-marijuana book, Tell Your Children, is sounding the alarm with a link between cannabis and violence. Just because today marijuana is widely regarded as safer than alcohol doesnt mean thats the final word. A bestselling anti-marijuana book is making waves for suggesting that the drug may be far more dangerous than the industry would have us believe. Tell Your Children: The Truth About Marijuana, Mental Illness and Violence, by the former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson, reminds readers that when it comes to health, we never know as much as we think we do. The most demonstrable health risk associated with marijuana is that for a small portion of users, largely men in their teens and early 20s, the drug may induce psychosis and schizophrenia, sometimes after only short-term use. By highlighting this real, and terrifying, risk of marijuana use, Berenson has done an important public service. But as others have pointed out, the book overreaches in trying to establish a causal link between cannabis use and violence. And it suffers from Berensons refusal to consider marijuana as anything other than a serious threat to a relatively small segment of the population. Brain scans show how cannabis extract may help people with psychosis Read more Science takes time and is not immune to the dogmas of its era. Today doctors universally recognize the dangers of cigarette smoking, but it took decades and millions of early, agonizing deaths before the consensus solidified. The best parts of Tell Your Children document the connection between pot smoking and psychosis, from 19th century Mexico and India to the present day. The connection hadnt been a secret. According to a 2013 statement from the American Psychiatric Association, current evidence supports, at minimum, a strong association of cannabis use with the onset of psychiatric disorders. Adolescents are particularly vulnerable to harm, given the effects of cannabis on neurological development. But Berenson has amplified it more effectively than anyone else. It isnt a fashionable argument right now. The for-profit cannabis industry promotes the drug as a nearly harmless medicine and it seems to be working. Last year, Canada became the first large country to legalize recreational cannabis. About 90% of Americans favor access to medical marijuana and roughly two-thirds favor full legalization. The rapid shift in US public opinion towards legalization has been fueled by disgust with the war on drugs and mass incarceration, as well as the largely unproven hopes that medical marijuana can mitigate complex health crises such as the opioid epidemic. Facebook Twitter Pinterest For many men in their teens and early 20s, marijuana use may induce psychosis and schizophrenia. Photograph: UPI / Barcroft Media According to Berenson, the great majority of teenagers who smoke weed will not be affected by psychosis. But young people who are at greatest risk deserve the best available information. By describing numerous psychotic breakdowns in excruciating detail, the books scare tactics could save a few lives. Berenson is also not the first person to soundly argue that the high-potency pot products available now are likely to make the problem worse. The second part of Berensons argument, however, has attracted more criticism. He attempts to show that because marijuana can cause psychosis and psychosis can cause violence, marijuana causes users to commit senseless, nightmarish acts of violence. (For rebuttals see here, here, here and here. For a discussion of the issues involved see here.) Tell Your Children opens with an Australian woman who knifed eight children to death, seven of them hers. Later it tells the story of Jared Loughner, a 22-year-old Arizona man who in 2011 shot six people to death and nearly killed Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords; Loughner also smoked pot. Theres lots more. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Legal marijuana markets dont seem to have witnessed an uptick in ultraviolence. Illustration: George Wylesol Yet legal marijuana markets dont seem to have witnessed an uptick in ultraviolence. Berenson suggests the crimes are out there but have not been well-publicized, and that the problem is gestating. Maybe, but the argument suffers from a definition of psychosis which seems to encompass everything from low-level paranoia to fits of homicidal rage. And while Berenson focuses on questionable concerns over violence, he misses a number of less cinematic, but perhaps more dangerous threats. He could have looked, for example, into the little studied question of whether cannabis use by pregnant women can impair fetal brain development. Every adult in America, meanwhile, knows someone they think smokes too much weed, not because the user mutilated someone, but because it seemed to diminish their emotional or intellectual capacities. By some estimates, 10% of marijuana users develop a dependency on the drug. Under any legalization scenario, its this population, the anonymous problem user, who will weigh most heavily on society. A better anti-weed book would tell their stories. But this would force questions Berenson has no interest in answering. If 20% of marijuana users have a problem, 80% dont. Berenson doesnt want to come off as a prig. He gets that people like to get high and tries not to hold it against them. But hes uninterested in why people get high, much less able to acknowledge the possibility that theres any good reason for it. Like a lot of weed opponents, he says only a small fraction of marijuana users use it to treat a clinical medical need. Thats true. Much about weed invites this kind of easy contempt. But the great bulk of users feel its beneficial, because it helps them relax, it improves their sex life or makes it more fun to play with their kids. Maybe it helps them drink less alcohol, which they find more destructive. Quitting cannabis could lead to better memory and cognition Read more And at the other end of the spectrum from the problem users is a population who consider weed something like a performance-enhancing drug. They can be found, among other places, throughout the ranks of Hollywood and Silicon Valley. The last century of music, one might argue, was brought to us by weed. The book would have been better if Berenson had some understanding of, or curiosity about, the drugs allure and complexity, or even could put its dangers in context. By some criteria, I am dependent, the journalist Andrew Sullivan wrote in 2017. Weed most definitely isnt for everyone. But compared with all the other substances available, and most other avenues to chill and friendship, it remains, it seems to me, a no-brainer to legalize it, and for many sane adults, one of Gods great gifts to humankind. | https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jan/28/how-dangerous-is-marijuana-for-young-mens-mental-health |
Is a Parliamentary Official Trying to Stop Brexit? | The Speaker of the House of Commons is supposed to be the referee. He, or she, sits in the Speakers Chair, a throne made of black beanwood from North Queensland, Australia, and presides over whatever faretechnical, listless, boorish, crazedis unfolding in the chamber at a given moment. By tradition, Speakers are chosen by their fellow members of Parliament, and dragged unwillingly to the chair, where they resign from their parties and remain politically impartial for the rest of their lives. In the Commons, they choose who speaks, for how long, and what business they should be discussing. The role requires presence and a strong grip on the phrase Order! Order!, which is what Speakers shout to bring the Commons into line. When I was growing up, the Speaker was Betty Boothroyd, a former Labour M.P., from Yorkshire, who was the first and only woman to hold the role. Boothroyd had gray curls and a face that was kind and withering at the same time. She eschewed the wig previously worn by Speakers and had a way of standing up wordlessly (when the Speaker stands, everyone else sits), clenching her hands, and calmly saying, Order-order, with a force that shut the whole place up. Her successor, a former sheet-metal worker from Glasgow named Michael Martin, was the first Catholic Speaker since the Reformation. He had a high-pitched, offended-sounding cry of ord-er!a wild Scottish lamentwhich also got peoples attention. In early 2019, its hard to say what phase of Brexit the nation has entered. However, since the almighty defeat of Prime Minister Theresa Mays proposed deal with the European Union, on January 15th, it has been clear that the action has shifted to Parliament. With May unable to count on the support of her Conservative party, M.P.s on all sides have been taking the initiative, tabling amendments and discussing optionsNorway plus, Common Market 2.0, no deal, or a second referendumthat might break the deadlock. The House of Commons, a tight, claustrophobic place laced with a faint smell of school lunches, is now the main stage for Brexit; its procedures, which are arcane at the best of times, have disproportionate importance for what happens next. At times of fundamental political crisis, Britains unwritten constitution allows Parliament great sway, and John Bercow, a puckish, performative, former Conservative M.P., who has been the Speaker since 2009, is the conductor of the show. The problem is that Bercow doesnt seem keen on Brexit. Like the Prime Minister, and most M.P.s, Bercow voted to stay in the E.U. in the 2016 referendum. I thought it was better to stay in the European Union than not, he told students at Reading University, in 2017. Last year, a bright-yellow Bollocks to Brexit sticker was spotted on the windshield of a black Range Rover in Bercows parking spot outside the Commons. (Bercow said that the carand the stickerbelonged to his wife.) And, after Mays defeat earlier this month, Bercow allowed an unprecedented motion to pass in the Commonsover the advice of his officialswhich forced the Prime Minister to return to Parliament with a Plan B for Brexit within three days. Bercows decision wasnt in the rule book, though it won the support of a majority of M.P.s. This is a bold moment for a Speaker to start ignoring centuries of precedent, and everyone has noticed. Brexit is a game that could scarcely be controlled by any referee since long before it started, the Independent, a solidly anti-Brexit newspaper, reported. That the referee is now so clearly out of control too is a shocking, if unsurprising, development. Bercows perceived pro-E.U. biasand his general liveliness, amid the dense machinationshave made him a hit in mainland Europe. The only order in British politics comes from John Bercows mouth in these turbulent days, the Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant reported recently, describing Bercow as yes, more animal than ever. A German TV news show, Tagesschau, made a reel of Bercows interventions and put it on YouTube. Brexiteers cant stand him, naturally, and last week a member of the Cabinet told the BBC that Bercowunlike every other Speaker for the past two hundred and thirty yearswas unlikely to be given a peerage when he steps down. Bercow has been a reforming, eye-catching Speaker since he was hauled to the chair, nine years ago. He abandoned the Speakers traditional uniform of court dress in favor of a suit, and has championed the use of so-called urgent questions by M.P.s to summon government ministers to the Commons against their will. Two years ago, Bercow refused to allow President Trump to address the House of Commons on a proposed visit to the U.K., citing the bodys opposition to racism and sexisma move that was simultaneously popular and a test of the limits of his office. When he is in the Speakers chair, Bercow, who is short and has a labile, cat-like grin, also enjoys the more traditional, knockabout elements of his job. He shouts Ord-AARR with a tremendous emphasis on the second syllable, and berates M.P.s for talking while they are sitting down, or chuntering from a sedentary position. Bercow invites overexcited members to take their medicaments or to step out of the chamber, and sometimes just yells Zen! to see if that will have any effect. Last year, one of Bercows former private secretaries, Angus Sinclair, broke a non-disclosure agreement to tell the BBC that the Speaker had bullied and intimidated him, an accusation that Bercow denies. Sinclairs successor was given a diagnosis of P.T.S.D. On Thursday, I spoke to Vernon Bogdanor, a visiting professor of government at Kings College London, who is one of Britains leading constitutional scholars, about Bercow. I think he has damaged the role of the Speaker, Bogdanor told me. Every other Speaker in living memory has been scrupulously neutral, never been accused of any partisanship. He is the first. Next week, the pressure will increase further. Bercows every call will be scrutinized. On Tuesdaythe next big day in Brexitthe Speaker has to choose six amendments from M.P.s, which will set the course of the drama for the coming weeks. Another plot among rebel M.P.s, who are searching for a cross-party solution to Brexit, is to suspend the rule that gives the governments agenda priority in the House of Commons. If Bercow allows that, it would probably be the most dramatic act by a Speaker since William Lenthall defied King Charles I, who was trying to arrest five M.P.s, in January, 1642and that helped set off the First English Civil War. One of the saddest, and most maddening, aspects of Brexit has been the timidity of many British politicians to speak their mind about what is happening to the country. Neither Theresa May nor Jeremy Corbyn has ever saidor is likely to saythat leaving the E.U. will be positive for Britains health, wealth, culture, or well-being. It is both shocking and not surprising that one of the only people who really isnt allowed to have a point of view about Brexit seems determined to express itand that isnt helping, either. | https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-uk/is-a-parliamentary-official-trying-to-stop-brexit |
Can These 2 Public Servants Solve Social Security's Biggest Challenges? | Social Security is a vital program for tens of millions of Americans, but a financial crisis for the program is looming. For a long time now, those who follow Social Security have predicted that a major financial disruption will hit around the mid-2030s, and both current and future recipients of Social Security benefits could see devastating cuts without further action. Even with the American public becoming increasingly nervous about the future of Social Security, Washington gridlock has thus far remained an insurmountable impediment to finding a solution. For several years, the public hasn't even had a voice among the trustees of the trust that holds Social Security's asset reserves. There are supposed to be two members of the public named among the six trustees, but those spots have been vacant for years. Below, we'll go into more detail about the role that the public trustees are supposed to play -- as well as why two people who used to fill those roles have taken it upon themselves to volunteer to provide the same sort of information that they used to give in their official capacity. Three Social Security cards with a brass key on top of them. More Image source: Getty Images. How public trustees got onto Social Security's trust fund Social Security's trust fund didn't always have public trustees. Indeed, for much of the first half-century of the program's existence, only appointed government officials were entitled to a seat among the trustees of the trust fund. Today, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Labor, and the Secretary of Health and Human Services are the three cabinet-level trustees, and the Commissioner of Social Security fills a fourth seat. When Social Security reform last happened, in 1983, former Fed chair Alan Greenspan led a commission that recommended two public trustees to join those overseeing the trust fund. The commission's hope was that including members of the public would boost confidence among everyday Americans about the trust fund's management. Mary Falvey Fuller and Suzanne Denbo Jaffe took their spots as the first public trustees in 1984, and subsequently, replacements were named on a regular basis. Over the years, political wrangling has led to vacancies in the post. From 2008 to 2010, no public trustees were listed, as the White House and Congress couldn't agree on who should fill the seats of the departing public trustees. A similar situation occurred in 2016, and as of the most recent trustees' report, the public trustee spots are again listed as vacant. What the most recent public trustees have said But the expiration of their terms in 2015 hasn't stopped Robert Reischauer and Charles Blahous from making their views known. Shortly after the most recent release of the trustees' report, Blahous and Reischauer issued an open letter through the Bipartisan Policy Center. In the letter, the two former public trustees discussed what they saw as the key findings of the report: The Social Security trust fund is expected to draw down its fund balances beginning this year, starting what most see as a downward spiral that will eventually led to the depletion of the trust fund. Even though the date at which financial troubles for Social Security are expected to begin has stayed stable, the fact that it's getting closer will make it more difficult for lawmakers to remedy the problem. Solving the problem currently would take either a 21% boost in tax revenue, a 17% cut in benefits, or some combination of the two. Overall, the two former public trustees said that the trustees' report used appropriate methodologies and assumptions in coming to its conclusions. Yet they still think that the public trustees have a role to play: | https://news.yahoo.com/2-public-servants-solve-social-110100424.html |
Will no-deal Brexit mean Britain has no machinery or salads? | Britons are preparing for the possibility of the U.K. finding itself with a no-deal Brexit on March 29. It will be catastrophic but at this moment it still has an air of comedy. Its like being shut out of the house in the quarrel that brings on the divorce. You cant pound on the door and say I love E-U even if its just to get your suits back. Where youre going, you wont need suits. Nevine and Richard Mann shop for supplies at a local store in Cornwall, England, in October. The Manns have joined the countrys band Brexit preppers, people who fear chaos in March, when Britain will leave the European Union, and who are stockpiling supplies. ( JAMES BECK / NYT ) Itll just be you and lot of other badly dressed Brits hissing at each other at the checkout because Derek wanted to stockpile cat food, but no, Tristram said we had loads in the cupboard. So the cats going to starve then, thanks to you. The cat will flourish as will Britannia, says Tristram. Well have plenty of beef. You see, 90 per cent of British beef is exported to the EU, which will no longer buy it because it wont meet EU health standards. Derek: Even if it doesnt, we dont have the ferries to transport it. Article Continued Below Tristram: Mrs. May has stockpiled ferries. Derek: From a start-up contractor with no experience with ferries. And also no ferries. Tristram: Never mind, Blighty shall carry on. Derek: Until the insulin runs out, and who knows when that is because the government wouldnt tell us how much refrigerated medicine they were storing up. Then well run out of body bags. Tristram: Nonsense, the government has it all in warehouses. They didnt tell us because they didnt want to attract thieves. Derek: No, because they ran out of warehouses. Full of dog food probably. These are the conversations to come if Britain reverts to wartime conditions. The Conservatives brought in their austerity policy in the Great Recession of 2008, clamping down so hard on libraries, schools, spare bedrooms, and basic welfare that it began to feel like the historic austerity years, 1945-1951. It wont be popular. Article Continued Below Britain, for reasons best known to itself, is risking returning to an era when it had just helped win the war against Nazi Germany but at the price of extreme poverty. Britain had won the war but lost the peace. And its happening all over again. Look at Germany now. Most EU countries despise Germany how it clings to its surpluses but its prosperous. I hesitate to refer to Great Britain or the U.K. any more. What with Welsh and Scottish separatism and Northern Ireland a dead weight, its really just England now. Watch the new Benedict Cumberbatch Netflix drama Brexit: The Uncivil War and shudder. It tells the horrifying story of how a nation was destroyed by a coalition of rich politicians, win-at-any-cost Brexiteers, and the sinister Trump campaign-linked Cambridge Analytica using Facebook data to target British voter dead zones. Add austerity and social media goading and youve got yourself a calamity. It is possible that Prime Minister Theresa May will make a better deal with the EU by the March deadline, though its hard to see how because nations usually negotiate while threatening to leave. Britain was foolish enough to announce its exit first. The EU has no wish to bankrupt Britain, still part of NATO and still useful in many ways, but it has to signal to the other 27 EU nations that leaving would be catastrophic, a self-inflicted blow from which it will not recover in the wild world that Donald Trump has created. I am reading Nella Lasts War, the diary of the English living on scraps in 1941. I made cabbage soup today and added a shredded carrot and a leek. Her husband says reprovingly, We dont need much. Dont forget theres a war on. The government had curtailed inessentials like cups, toys, clocks and furniture. Luxury goods like pencils, needles and cosmetics were almost unobtainable. Rationing didnt end until 1954. Six decades later, the French company LOreal is stockpiling makeup in Britain instead of leaving customers to experiment with beetroot and shoe polish. For cosmetics, along with electrical machinery and many other things, are no long manufactured locally. Britain shops elsewhere. Heather Mallick is a columnist based in Toronto covering current affairs. Follow her on Twitter: @HeatherMallick | https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2019/01/28/will-no-deal-brexit-mean-britain-has-no-machinery-or-salads.html |
Is The TSA Really Necessary? | As the U.S. government shutdown enters a three-week intermission, many are taking a moment to assess the political impact of the longest shutdown in the countrys history. Beyond the political and social ramifications, however, the hiatus also provides an opportunity to look at how our infrastructure and transportation systems fared. Airports have seen the brunt of the disruption. Last Friday, January 25, the FAA issued ground stops at a handful of major airports due to a sharp increase in air traffic controllers calling in sick amid shutdown-induced financial strain. For example, nearly half of the controllers for one Washington-area zone called in sick on Friday, leaving the high-volume Washington center short-handed. The Transportation Security Administration has also seen an increase in unscheduled absences, which have more than doubled year over year during the shutdown. Unlike the shortage of air traffic controllers, however, the lack of TSA personnel has not led to abnormal delays. Over Martin Luther King Jr. day weekend, for instance, one in 10 TSA employees (who are not being paid through the government shutdown) took the day off, crediting financial strain caused by the shutdown. Despite this 10 percent reduction in TSA officers, security screening wait times did not exceeded normal lengths at most airports. The efficiency and security of our air transportation infrastructure is of paramount importance to the economic and social wellbeing of our nation. Air travel is still the only truly global transportation network that can connect people and places regardless of whether they live in a port city or a small town. In the U.S. alone there are nearly 16 million flights a year, transporting nearly 1 billion passengers and 42 billion pounds of freight annually. These activities account for over 5 percent of the nations GDP and nearly 11 million jobs. Air transit is mission-critical, and keeping our airports and airlines safe and orderly isnt an indulgence, its a necessity. In 2017, Homeland Security inspectors were able to transport facsimile firearms, explosives and knives through TSA checkpoints an appalling 70 percent of the time. This is not only unacceptable, but calls into question the effectiveness of the TSA. Many experts, in fact, have long criticized the TSA as security theater, noting that body scanners are largely ineffective at detecting common explosive materials. Further, theres been very little evidence that measures such as the liquid ban are in any way essential or effective, and even the European Union has been trying to eliminate liquid restrictions for years. Numerous studies have found that the TSA has consistently mismanaged security investments and that private screeners perform as good or better than TSA screeners. With a nearly $8 billion annual budget, the TSA hardly seems like a good investment, especially when 10 percent of its workforce can call in sick without dramatically impacting efficiency or security (at least thus far). While we shouldnt put a price on human life, theres also an opportunity cost that needs to be considered. Yes, we need to protect the safety of our airports, airplanes, air cargo and air passengers, but the current tactics employed by the TSA arent our only options. There are more effective ways to deter, prevent and impede would-be hijackers and terrorists. First, on-board safety measures like reinforced cockpit doors are widely seen as one of the simplest, yet most effective ways of thwarting hijackers. Theyre also relatively affordable. Investing in specific structural measures like more secure cockpits can add undeniable value without adding another layer of inefficiency or inconvenience to the travel experience. Second, programs like CLEAR are demonstrating how new technologies can handle identity verification while making the screening process more efficient. CLEAR uses biometrics to scan your fingerprints and irises to ensure you are who you say you are, allowing you to bypass the TSA ID checker. Tech-enabled programs like CLEAR can go a long way in enhancing the accuracy of identity screening while making it faster and cheaper. Third, and perhaps most importantly, the use of big data and data analytics have allowed government agencies and contractors to add an entirely new layer of security. Much of the action in the fight against terrorism takes place upstream, that is, long before a potential threat ever enters a U.S. airport. Data analytics packages like those offered by Palantir, which counts the Department of Defense and many of the three-letter agencies (e.g. CIA, NSA, FBI) as customers, let officials extract insights from dense, seemingly unrelated and previously unusable data sets to identify threats before an attack. As a result, much of the terrorism prevention in the era of big data occurs far away from the TSA officers in the terminal. Palantir CEO Alex Karp even said recently that he hears about a thwarted terror attack once a week. The TSA officers we know and respect are not, in most cases, on the front-lines of the war on terror. The real war is taking place in cyberspace in real-time. Investing in preemption rather than cumbersome point-of-departure security systems is not only likely to be more effective, but less intrusive and disruptive as well. The safety and security of our air transportation infrastructure is vital to the well-being and growth of our nation. While some have argued that agencies such as the FAA should be privatized, air traffic controllers are undoubtedly necessary to the safe operation of our aviation network. Conversely, the absence rates the TSA has faced during the shutdown emphasize how non-critical the agency and a sizable percentage of its workforce has become. The TSA was important after 9/11 to provide both physical and psychological security. Today, new technologies may allow us to start reclaiming our airports from our blue-shirted compatriots. The TSA was only ever a means to an end and, today, there are better means. Its important we use the shutdown to identify where improvements can be made to the TSAand all federal agencies. Our country needs a working government, but we also have to recognize that its not always working even when it is. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellistalton/2019/01/28/is-the-tsa-really-necessary/ |
What are non-disclosure agreements? | Image copyright EPA Image caption Sir Philip Green denies allegations of sexual harassment and racist behaviour Topshop boss Sir Philip Green has dropped his legal action against the Daily Telegraph, which prevented it publishing allegations of racist behaviour and sexual harassment. He had argued that former staff were breaking the law by breaching non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) they had signed. Sometimes known as "gagging orders" or "hush agreements", they're legal contracts between employees and companies, typically preventing staff and ex-staff making information public. This applies to commercially sensitive details such as inventions, ideas, accounts or strategies, or anything likely to damage an organisation's reputation. Recently, Jose Mourinho was reported to have signed an NDA as part of his pay-off when he was sacked as Manchester United manager. But NDAs have also been used to prevent employees reporting allegations of misbehaviour in the workplace to the media after a settlement has been agreed. They are signed when employees and organisations decide to resolve a dispute - such as claims of wrongful dismissal - without having to go through a full tribunal hearing. But they can be signed earlier, such as when staff are taken on. They can be about specific details, such as a certain invention or contract, or they can be more general. In the UK, NDAs don't stop people reporting alleged illegal acts. If a manager or colleague faced allegations of attempted rape or fraud, for instance, reporting these to the police would not be prevented. But allegations of a boss making sexual comments or bullying staff could be covered. Campaigners argue that this could allow those responsible to get away with misbehaviour and stops other potential victims coming forward. The length of time for which an NDA applies varies. In the US, it's thought that a third of workers have signed NDAs but no equivalent figures exist for the UK. Julie Morris, a senior employment partner at Slater and Gordon Lawyers, says that, in her experience, "almost all settlement agreements" contain NDAs "which prevent employees from speaking about various matters, including allegations about harassment or discrimination". The Solicitors Regulation Authority has warned law firms against "inappropriate" use of NDAs, including to prevent reporting of "sexual harassment or misconduct". The Commons Women's and Equality Committee has recommended that the government "clean up" the use of NDAs in sexual harassment cases, and is now looking at what effect NDAs have on pregnancy or maternity discrimination or racist abuse. In one committee hearing, Nick Whittingham, chief executive of Kirklees Citizens Advice and Law Centre, said about 80% of settled tribunal cases involved an NDA. If someone breaches an NDA, they break a contract. This leaves them open to being sued. But if a company thinks the NDA is going to be breached anyway, it can apply for an injunction, as Sir Philip did to prevent his name being circulated by the Daily Telegraph in connection with allegations of racial and sexual harassment. If someone breaches an injunction, this is a criminal offence, and can lead to a fine or jail for those found guilty. Yes. Parliamentary privilege - guaranteeing free speech for parliamentarians - allows MPs and peers to mention them in the House of Commons or House of Lords. Last October, former Labour cabinet minister Lord Hain used this to name Sir Philip as the businessman accused by the Daily Telegraph of sexual and racial harassment, after the newspaper was prevented by the injunction from doing this. It reported that interviews with five members of staff revealed that victims had been paid "substantial sums" in return for legal commitments not to discuss their alleged experiences. But it hadn't named Sir Philip, because of the injunction. Sir Philip says he is "not guilty of unlawful sexual or racist behaviour" and that he has been the subject of "vicious" and "untrue" personal attacks in the media. | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47027062 |
Will Netflix Fall Into the Apple Trap? | For the past several years, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) seemed invincible. Sure, there were ongoing concerns about slowing iPhone sales, but the company's revenue continued to grow, spurred on by a seemingly endless string of price increases for its flagship device. That all came crashing down recently. A combination of increasing smartphone penetration, slowing growth in China, and lackluster adoption of the latest model caused Apple to warn that its revenue results for the important holiday quarter would fall well below its previous guidance. There are some interesting parallels with Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) as it begins to more aggressively raise prices. An Apple sits atop a bear trap. Image source: Getty Images. A similar mindset Over the years, Apple has often suggested that as it continued to add high-end features to its iPhone, consumers would be willing to pay a premium for the device. Here's what Apple CEO Tim Cook had to say on the subject on the third-quarter 2018 conference call last June: If you look at iPhone X in particular, it's the most innovative smartphone on the market. We priced it at a level that represented the value of it. And we could not be happier that it has been the top-selling iPhone since the launch. Netflix had been much more reluctant to raise prices since the ill-fated splitting of its DVD and streaming services back in 2011. Where customers were previously charged $10 for both services, the price jumped to $8 each or $16 for both. Customers revolted at the 60% price increase and Netflix lost 800,000 members that quarter, or 3% of its subscriber base. That led to a long period of stable pricing. Over the past couple of years, however, Netflix has been much more willing to institute price increases. Consider this recent quote from Netflix's chief product officer, Greg Peters, on the company's fourth-quarter conference call, referring to the recent price increase: "Our job is to effectively invest the money that our subscribers give us every month so that we can give them incredible content and a better and better product experience. And if we do that well, we create more value for our subscribers and then occasionally, we'll come to them and we'll ask for a little bit more money." That sounds an awful lot like Apple's justification for higher prices. Diverging paths While both companies have a history of recent increases, the results over time have been vastly different. Since 2014, Netflix has raised the cost of its standard plan -- which includes high-definition streaming and concurrent streaming on two devices -- from $7.99 to $12.99, a 63% increase. While that might seem ambitious, the path of price increases for the iPhone has been far more aggressive. In 2014, a low-end iPhone 6 cost about $199. Today, the cheapest iPhone XS comes in at $999 -- a fivefold increase. Not Apples to apples It's important to note that other factors are at play, so this is obviously not a perfect comparison. Smartphones have experienced much greater penetration worldwide than streaming has. In addition, the ongoing trade war and slowing economic growth in China probably took the greatest toll on Apple's results, so growth may rebound somewhat once Washington, D.C., and Beijing strike an accord. | https://news.yahoo.com/netflix-fall-apple-trap-123000378.html |
Can eBay Deliver When It Reports Earnings? | Last year was a tough one for eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) investors. The e-commerce platform lost a quarter of its value as the broader digital shopping market grew up around it, dwarfed by the success of major players like Amazon. In the wake of these events, eBay has worked to remake itself, targeting more of a niche market. Investor enthusiasm coupled with recent events have pushed eBay's stock up more than 16% in recent weeks, putting pressure on the company to continue to deliver. eBay is scheduled to release the financial results of its just-completed fourth quarter after the market close on Tuesday, Jan. 29. Let's take a look at the company's third-quarter earnings, a news flash, and eBay's outlook to see what insight they provide into the company's upcoming earnings report. A building entrance adorned with the eBay logo. More Image source: eBay. A look back In the third quarter, eBay generated revenue of $2.65 billion, an increase of 6% year over year, falling at the low end of the company's guidance and just missing analyst consensus estimates of $2.66 billion. Diluted earnings per share of $0.73 climbed 52% compared to the prior-year quarter. Adjusted earnings per share jumped 19% year over year to $0.56, at the high end of management's forecast and edging past expectations of $0.55 per share. eBay reported that global active buyers grew to 177 million, up 4% compared to the prior-year quarter. Marketplace revenue of $2.1 billion climbed 6%, while StubHub revenue of $291 million increased 7%, both year over year. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) for marketplace and StubHub grew to $21.5 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively. Total GMV of $22.7 billion grew 5% year over year. eBay's classified ads business added revenue of $254 million, up 8% year over year. Current events Activist investment firm Elliot Management released an open letter to eBay's management, after disclosing a 4% stake in the online marketplace, making it one of the company's largest investors. The letter said Elliot's $1.4 billion investment in the company "demonstrates our strong belief in the value opportunity at eBay." Elliot's team pointed out that the stock had underperformed its peers, and laid out a number of steps it believes eBay must take to unlock that value. These steps include revitalizing the company's core marketplace, spinning off StubHub and eBay's classifieds business, instituting operational improvements, implementing a 1.5% dividend yield, and accelerating its stock buybacks. The hedge fund believes if eBay were to implement these steps, it would nearly double eBay's stock price to $63 per share within two years. eBay has said it's reviewing Elliot's proposals. What the quarter may hold For the upcoming fourth quarter, eBay is guiding for net revenue in a range of $2.85 billion to $2.89 billion, representing year-over-year growth of between 4% and 5%, excluding the impact of foreign currency changes. The company is also expecting diluted earnings per share (EPS) of between $0.87 and $0.92, and adjusted earnings per share in a range of $0.67 and $0.69. To put this into the context of investor expectations and the broader market sentiment, analysts' consensus estimates are calling for revenue of $2.87 billion, in line with management's guidance, and adjusted EPS of $0.68, at the high end of eBay's forecast range. | https://news.yahoo.com/ebay-deliver-reports-earnings-121100665.html |
Is Van Eck Emerging Markets A (GBFAX) a Strong Mutual Fund Pick Right Now? | If investors are looking at the Non US - Equity fund category, make sure to pass over Van Eck Emerging Markets A (GBFAX). GBFAX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank of 4 (Sell), which is based on nine forecasting factors like size, cost, and past performance. Objective GBFAX is classified in the Non US - Equity area by Zacks, and this segment is full of potential. Non US - Equity funds focus their investments on companies outside of the United States, which is an important distinction since global mutual funds tend to keep a sizable portion of their portfolio based in the United States. Most of these funds will allocate across emerging and developed markets, and can often extend across cap levels too. History of Fund/Manager GBFAX finds itself in the Van Eck family, based out of New York, NY. Van Eck Emerging Markets A made its debut in January of 1994, and since then, GBFAX has accumulated about $119.07 million in assets, per the most up-to-date date available. The fund's current manager, David A. Semple, has been in charge of the fund since December of 2002. Performance Obviously, what investors are looking for in these funds is strong performance relative to their peers. This fund in particular has delivered a 5-year annualized total return of -0.23%, and it sits in the bottom third among its category peers. If you're interested in shorter time frames, do not dismiss looking at the fund's 3-year annualized total return of 4.57%, which places it in the middle third during this time-frame. When looking at a fund's performance, it is also important to note the standard deviation of the returns. The lower the standard deviation, the less volatility the fund experiences. The standard deviation of GBFAX over the past three years is 16.16% compared to the category average of 10.08%. Looking at the past 5 years, the fund's standard deviation is 15.38% compared to the category average of 10.02%. This makes the fund more volatile than its peers over the past half-decade. Risk Factors Investors should always remember the downsides to a potential investment, and this segment carries some risks one should be aware of. In the most recent bear market, GBFAX lost 73.44% and underperformed its peer group by 14.99%. This makes the fund a possibly worse choice than its peers during a sliding market environment. Even still, the fund has a 5-year beta of 0.89, so investors should note that it is hypothetically less volatile than the market at large. Alpha is an additional metric to take into consideration, since it represents a portfolio's performance on a risk-adjusted basis relative to a benchmark, which in this case, is the S&P 500. The fund has produced a negative alpha over the past 5 years of -6.67, which shows that managers in this portfolio find it difficult to pick securities that generate better-than-benchmark returns. Expenses Costs are increasingly important for mutual fund investing, and particularly as competition heats up in this market. And all things being equal, a lower cost product will outperform its otherwise identical counterpart, so taking a closer look at these metrics is key for investors. In terms of fees, GBFAX is a load fund. It has an expense ratio of 1.41% compared to the category average of 1.21%. So, GBFAX is actually more expensive than its peers from a cost perspective. While the minimum initial investment for the product is $1,000, investors should also note that each subsequent investment needs to be at least $100. Bottom Line Overall, Van Eck Emerging Markets A ( GBFAX ) has a low Zacks Mutual Fund rank, and in conjunction with its comparatively weak performance, worse downside risk, and higher fees, this fund looks like a somewhat weak choice for investors right now. For additional information on the Non US - Equity area of the mutual fund world, make sure to check out www.zacks.com/funds/mutual-funds. There, you can see more about the ranking process, and dive even deeper into GBFAX too for additional information. Zacks provides a full suite of tools to help you analyze your portfolio - both funds and stocks - in the most efficient way possible. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | https://news.yahoo.com/van-eck-emerging-markets-gbfax-120012752.html |
Is ClearBridge Large Cap Growth A (SBLGX) a Strong Mutual Fund Pick Right Now? | ClearBridge Large Cap Growth A (SBLGX) is a potential starting point. SBLGX possesses a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank of 2 (Buy), which is based on nine forecasting factors like size, cost, and past performance. Objective SBLGX is classified in the Large Cap Growth segment by Zacks, an area full of possibilities. Companies are usually considered to be large-cap if their stock market valuation is more than $10 billion. Large Cap Growth mutual funds invest in many large U.S. firms that are projected to grow at a faster rate than their large-cap peers. History of Fund/Manager SBLGX finds itself in the Legg Mason family, based out of Baltimore, MD. ClearBridge Large Cap Growth A debuted in August of 1997. Since then, SBLGX has accumulated assets of about $1.89 billion, according to the most recently available information. The fund's current manager, Peter Bourbeau, has been in charge of the fund since July of 2009. Performance Investors naturally seek funds with strong performance. This fund has delivered a 5-year annualized total return of 10.47%, and it sits in the top third among its category peers. If you're interested in shorter time frames, do not dismiss looking at the fund's 3-year annualized total return of 10.01%, which places it in the top third during this time-frame. When looking at a fund's performance, it is also important to note the standard deviation of the returns. The lower the standard deviation, the less volatility the fund experiences. The standard deviation of SBLGX over the past three years is 11.58% compared to the category average of 9.76%. The standard deviation of the fund over the past 5 years is 11.43% compared to the category average of 9.64%. This makes the fund more volatile than its peers over the past half-decade. Risk Factors One cannot ignore the volatility of this segment, however, as it is always important for investors to remember the downside to any potential investment. In the most recent bear market, SBLGX lost 46.03% and outperformed its peer group by 2.81%. This might suggest that the fund is a better choice than its peers during a bear market. Investors should note that the fund has a 5-year beta of 1, so it is likely going to be as volatile as the market at large. Alpha is an additional metric to take into consideration, since it represents a portfolio's performance on a risk-adjusted basis relative to a benchmark, which in this case, is the S&P 500. With a positive alpha of 1.93, managers in this portfolio are skilled in picking securities that generate better-than-benchmark returns. Holdings Exploring the equity holdings of a mutual fund is also a valuable exercise. This can show us how the manager is applying their stated methodology, as well as if there are any inherent biases in their approach. For this particular fund, the focus is largely on equities that are traded in the United States. Right now, 87.53% of this mutual fund's holdings are stocks, with an average market capitalization of $280.46 billion. The fund has the heaviest exposure to the following market sectors: Technology Other Retail Trade Finance With turnover at about 18%, this fund makes fewer trades than the average comparable fund. Expenses Costs are increasingly important for mutual fund investing, and particularly as competition heats up in this market. And all things being equal, a lower cost product will outperform its otherwise identical counterpart, so taking a closer look at these metrics is key for investors. In terms of fees, SBLGX is a load fund. It has an expense ratio of 1.03% compared to the category average of 1.05%. SBLGX is actually cheaper than its peers when you consider factors like cost. Investors should also note that the minimum initial investment for the product is $1,000 and that each subsequent investment needs to be at $50. Bottom Line Overall, ClearBridge Large Cap Growth A ( SBLGX ) has a high Zacks Mutual Fund rank, and in conjunction with its comparatively strong performance, average downside risk, and lower fees, ClearBridge Large Cap Growth A ( SBLGX ) looks like a good potential choice for investors right now. For additional information on this product, or to compare it to other mutual funds in the Large Cap Growth, make sure to go to www.zacks.com/funds/mutual-funds for additional information. If you want to check out our stock reports as well, make sure to go to Zacks.com to see all of the great tools we have to offer, including our time-tested Zacks Rank. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research | https://news.yahoo.com/clearbridge-large-cap-growth-sblgx-120012740.html |
Is DFA US Small Cap Institutional (DFSTX) a Strong Mutual Fund Pick Right Now? | Starting with DFA US Small Cap Institutional (DFSTX) is one possibility. DFSTX possesses a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank of 2 (Buy), which is based on nine forecasting factors like size, cost, and past performance. Objective Zacks categorizes DFSTX as Small Cap Blend, which is an area packed with options. Usually targeting stocks with market caps of less than $2 billion, a Small Cap Blend mutual fund lets investors diversify their funds among other kinds of small-cap equities. This can help reduce risk found in companies that have a lower stock market valuation. History of Fund/Manager Dimensional is based in Austin, TX, and is the manager of DFSTX. DFA US Small Cap Institutional made its debut in March of 1992, and since then, DFSTX has accumulated about $17.52 billion in assets, per the most up-to-date date available. The fund is currently managed by a team of investment professionals. Performance Of course, investors look for strong performance in funds. DFSTX has a 5-year annualized total return of 3.86% and is in the middle third among its category peers. Investors who prefer analyzing shorter time frames should look at its 3-year annualized total return of 6.17%, which places it in the middle third during this time-frame. When looking at a fund's performance, it is also important to note the standard deviation of the returns. The lower the standard deviation, the less volatility the fund experiences. Compared to the category average of 15.86%, the standard deviation of DFSTX over the past three years is 15.48%. The standard deviation of the fund over the past 5 years is 14.84% compared to the category average of 15.25%. This makes the fund less volatile than its peers over the past half-decade. Risk Factors It's always important to be aware of the downsides to any future investment, so one should not discount the risks that come with this segment. In the most recent bear market, DFSTX lost 53.79% and underperformed comparable funds by 1.62%. This makes the fund a possibly worse choice than its peers during a sliding market environment. Even still, the fund has a 5-year beta of 1.1, so investors should note that it is hypothetically more volatile than the market at large. Alpha is an additional metric to take into consideration, since it represents a portfolio's performance on a risk-adjusted basis relative to a benchmark, which in this case, is the S&P 500. Over the past 5 years, the fund has a negative alpha of -4.6. This means that managers in this portfolio find it difficult to pick securities that generate better-than-benchmark returns. Holdings Exploring the equity holdings of a mutual fund is also a valuable exercise. This can show us how the manager is applying their stated methodology, as well as if there are any inherent biases in their approach. For this particular fund, the focus is largely on equities that are traded in the United States. The mutual fund currently has 79.33% of its holdings in stocks, with an average market capitalization of $2.37 billion. The fund has the heaviest exposure to the following market sectors: Other Finance Industrial Cyclical Technology Turnover is about 12%, so those in charge of the fund make fewer trades than its comparable peers. Expenses For investors, taking a closer look at cost-related metrics is key, since costs are increasingly important for mutual fund investing. Competition is heating up in this space, and a lower cost product will likely outperform its otherwise identical counterpart, all things being equal. In terms of fees, DFSTX is a no load fund. It has an expense ratio of 0.37% compared to the category average of 1.04%. So, DFSTX is actually cheaper than its peers from a cost perspective. While the minimum initial investment for the product is $0, investors should also note that there is no minimum for each subsequent investment. Bottom Line Overall, DFA US Small Cap Institutional ( DFSTX ) has a high Zacks Mutual Fund rank, and in conjunction with its comparatively similar performance, average downside risk, and lower fees, DFA US Small Cap Institutional ( DFSTX ) looks like a good potential choice for investors right now. For additional information on this product, or to compare it to other mutual funds in the Small Cap Blend, make sure to go to www.zacks.com/funds/mutual-funds for additional information. If you are more of a stock investor, make sure to also check out our Zacks Rank, and our full suite of tools we have available for novice and professional investors alike. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | https://news.yahoo.com/dfa-us-small-cap-institutional-120012299.html |
Is Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) a Strong Mutual Fund Pick Right Now? | Any investors hoping to find an Allocation Balanced fund could think about starting with Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX). PRPFX holds a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank of 2 (Buy), which is based on nine forecasting factors like size, cost, and past performance. Objective PRPFX is one of many Zacks' Allocation Balanced mutual funds to pick from. Allocation Balanced funds seek to invest in a balance of asset types, like stocks, bonds, and cash, though including precious metals or commodities is not unusual; these funds are mostly categorized by their respective asset allocation. Investors utilize Allocation Balanced funds as a way to get a good start with diversified mutual funds, as well as for core holdings in a portfolio of funds. History of Fund/Manager PRPFX is a part of the Permanent family of funds, a company based out of San Francisco, CA. Permanent Portfolio Fund made its debut in December of 1982, and since then, PRPFX has accumulated about $2.36 billion in assets, per the most up-to-date date available. The fund is currently managed by Michael J. Cuggino who has been in charge of the fund since May of 2003. Performance Of course, investors look for strong performance in funds. PRPFX has a 5-year annualized total return of 1.32% and it sits in the bottom third among its category peers. Investors who prefer analyzing shorter time frames should look at its 3-year annualized total return of 4.85%, which places it in the middle third during this time-frame. When looking at a fund's performance, it is also important to note the standard deviation of the returns. The lower the standard deviation, the less volatility the fund experiences. Compared to the category average of 7.14%, the standard deviation of PRPFX over the past three years is 7.1%. The fund's standard deviation over the past 5 years is 6.98% compared to the category average of 7.27%. This makes the fund less volatile than its peers over the past half-decade. Risk Factors Investors cannot discount the risks to this segment though, as it is always important to remember the downside for any potential investment. In PRPFX's case, the fund lost 15.14% in the most recent bear market and outperformed its peer group by 21.26%. This makes the fund a possibly better choice than its peers during a sliding market environment. Investors should note that the fund has a 5-year beta of 0.33, so it is likely going to be less volatile than the market at large. Another factor to consider is alpha, as it reflects a portfolio's performance on a risk-adjusted basis relative to a benchmark-in this case, the S&P 500. PRPFX's 5-year performance has produced a negative alpha of -1.72, which means managers in this portfolio find it difficult to pick securities that generate better-than-benchmark returns. Expenses Costs are increasingly important for mutual fund investing, and particularly as competition heats up in this market. And all things being equal, a lower cost product will outperform its otherwise identical counterpart, so taking a closer look at these metrics is key for investors. In terms of fees, PRPFX is a no load fund. It has an expense ratio of 0.83% compared to the category average of 0.88%. Looking at the fund from a cost perspective, PRPFX is actually cheaper than its peers. Investors need to be aware that with this product, the minimum initial investment is $1,000; each subsequent investment needs to be at least $100. Bottom Line Overall, Permanent Portfolio Fund ( PRPFX ) has a high Zacks Mutual Fund rank, and in conjunction with its comparatively weak performance, average downside risk, and lower fees, this fund looks like a great potential choice for investors right now. For additional information on the Allocation Balanced area of the mutual fund world, make sure to check out www.zacks.com/funds/mutual-funds. There, you can see more about the ranking process, and dive even deeper into PRPFX too for additional information. If you are more of a stock investor, make sure to also check out our Zacks Rank, and our full suite of tools we have available for novice and professional investors alike. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research | https://news.yahoo.com/permanent-portfolio-fund-prpfx-strong-120012755.html |
Is T. Rowe Price Japan Fund (PRJPX) a Strong Mutual Fund Pick Right Now? | Starting with T. Rowe Price Japan Fund (PRJPX) is one possibility. PRJPX possesses a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), which is based on nine forecasting factors like size, cost, and past performance. Objective PRJPX is part of the Japan - Equity section, which is a segment that boasts many possible selections. Japan - Equity mutual funds mostly invest in Japan-based companies, which is one of the world's richest and most diversified economies. Japan's focus on exports allows them to be somewhat exposed to global economic trends, but investors should note that the country's lack of natural resources can also have an impact. History of Fund/Manager T. Rowe Price is based in Baltimore, MD, and is the manager of PRJPX. T. Rowe Price Japan Fund made its debut in December of 1991, and since then, PRJPX has accumulated about $918.73 million in assets, per the most up-to-date date available. The fund is currently managed by Archibald A. Ciganer who has been in charge of the fund since December of 2013. Performance Of course, investors look for strong performance in funds. PRJPX has a 5-year annualized total return of 6.37% and is in the top third among its category peers. Investors who prefer analyzing shorter time frames should look at its 3-year annualized total return of 9.02%, which places it in the top third during this time-frame. When looking at a fund's performance, it is also important to note the standard deviation of the returns. The lower the standard deviation, the less volatility the fund experiences. Compared to the category average of 16.56%, the standard deviation of PRJPX over the past three years is 13.31%. The standard deviation of the fund over the past 5 years is 12.63% compared to the category average of 16.18%. This makes the fund less volatile than its peers over the past half-decade. Risk Factors It's always important to be aware of the downsides to any future investment, so one should not discount the risks that come with this segment. In the most recent bear market, PRJPX lost 50.7% and outperformed its peer group by 5.92%. This makes the fund a possibly better choice than its peers during a sliding market environment. Nevertheless, investors should also note that the fund has a 5-year beta of 0.78, which means it is hypothetically less volatile than the market at large. Another factor to consider is alpha, as it reflects a portfolio's performance on a risk-adjusted basis relative to a benchmark-in this case, the S&P 500. The fund has produced a positive alpha over the past 5 years of 0.01, which shows that managers in this portfolio are skilled in picking securities that generate better-than-benchmark returns. Expenses For investors, taking a closer look at cost-related metrics is key, since costs are increasingly important for mutual fund investing. Competition is heating up in this space, and a lower cost product will likely outperform its otherwise identical counterpart, all things being equal. In terms of fees, PRJPX is a no load fund. It has an expense ratio of 0.94% compared to the category average of 1.20%. So, PRJPX is actually cheaper than its peers from a cost perspective. While the minimum initial investment for the product is $2,500, investors should also note that each subsequent investment needs to be at least $100. Bottom Line Overall, T. Rowe Price Japan Fund ( PRJPX ) has a high Zacks Mutual Fund rank, and in conjunction with its comparatively strong performance, average downside risk, and lower fees, T. Rowe Price Japan Fund ( PRJPX ) looks like a good potential choice for investors right now. Don't stop here for your research on Japan - Equity funds. We also have plenty more on our site in order to help you find the best possible fund for your portfolio. Make sure to check out www.zacks.com/funds/mutual-funds for more information about the world of funds, and feel free to compare PRJPX to its peers as well for additional information. Zacks provides a full suite of tools to help you analyze your portfolio - both funds and stocks - in the most efficient way possible. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Get Your Free (PRJPX): Fund Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | https://news.yahoo.com/t-rowe-price-japan-fund-120012551.html |
What Would John Stuart Mill Doto Fix Facebook? | Mills concept of harm is notoriously slippery: Its not necessarily clear how the Liberty principle would apply in cleaning up Facebook. Mill probably wouldnt have much objection to Facebooks attention-hijacking maneuvers, for instance. Its your choice how you procrastinate, and as long as youre not harming others in the process, the government shouldnt patronize you by micromanaging. When it comes to privacy, again Mill might have argued that by agreeing to the terms and conditions, one voluntarily consents to giving Facebook access to some private data. The voluntary nature of data sharing there is questionable. Complicating matters further, Mill encouraged states to protect peoples rightssuch as the contemporary right to privacy some legal frameworks now recognize. But what counts as a right, according to Mill, is specifically something without which human happiness cannot be maximized. We cant be sure whether data privacy would have been the kind of thing Mill would have thought necessary for maximizing happiness. When it comes to the 2016 election-related scandals, there are two separate issues: The dissemination of fake news stories with the aim to spread confusion and short-circuit the democratic process, and the use of data by third parties, such as Cambridge Analytica, with the aim to influence voters in very personalized ways. Mill wouldnt have seen the spreading of fake news as problematic. Mill wouldnt have seen the spreading of fake news as problematic. When discussing freedom of speech, Mill argued that not only are false views not damaging, they are actually beneficial. Encountering and combating false views helps prevent the truth from becoming dead dogma, Mill wrote: Truth would constantly need defending and reaffirming. Mill seemed to believe that an open, free debate meant the truth would usually prevail, whereas under censorship, truth could end up being accidentally suppressed, along with falsehood. Its a view that seems a bit archaic in the age of an online marketplace of memes and clickbait, where false stories tend to spread faster and wider than their true counterpoints. But Mill did also believe that some cases called for the limiting of the freedom of expression. When it is highly likely that ones remarks will lead to the physical harm of others, then you can be punished for them by the state. The enabling and dissemination of inflammatory content believed to have contributed to the genocide of the Rohingya in Myanmar would very much fall under that category: In a series of posts going back years, The New York Times reported last fall, military personnel in Myanmar turned the social network into a tool for ethnic cleansing, taking advantage of the platforms ubiquity to spread propaganda vilifying the countys minority Muslim group, who were then repeatedly massacred. | https://newrepublic.com/article/152939/john-stuart-mill-doto-fix-facebook |
Who made Rob Maclean's Scottish Premiership team of the weekend? | The Scottish Premiership is back in full swing after two rounds of fixtures following the winter break. BBC commentator Rob Maclean picks his team of the weekend. Formation 4-3-3: Ofir Marciano (Hibernian); James Tavernier (Rangers), John Souttar (Hearts), Stuart Findlay (Kilmarnock), Nathan Ralph (Dundee); David Turnbull (Motherwell), Stevie Mallan (Hibernian), Callum McGregor (Celtic); Alfredo Morelos (Rangers), Oli Shaw (Hibernian), Ryan Kent (Rangers). Goalkeeper - Ofir Marciano Hibernian, minus head coach Neil Lennon, showed real character to come back from a goal down against St Mirren in Paisley and goalkeeper Ofir Marciano takes a lot of credit for the 3-1 win. He made a couple of great saves to deny Stephen McGinn and Kyle McAllister. Defenders - James Tavernier, John Souttar, Stuart Findlay, Nathan Ralph Rangers captain James Tavernier set the tone for an impressive team performance. On his 28th birthday, Tavernier was influential from start to finish, still piling in maximum effort when the match was well won at 3-0. John Souttar made his first start for Hearts in two-and-a-half months and cruised through the win over Dundee. The Scotland defender was typically calm at the back and picked out Godinho with a perfect assist for the opening goal. Media playback is not supported on this device Highlights: Heart of Midlothian 2-0 St Johnstone Kilmarnock did not do much going forward in the goalless draw against Aberdeen at Pittodrie but they were solid in defence. Stuart Findlay is consistently outstanding for them. The former Celtic and Newcastle defender is a big part of the Killie success story. Nathan Ralph has been a big plus for Dundee during a difficult time. The former Woking left-back is comfortable on the ball and delivers well from out wide. In a regularly changing team he's been an automatic pick. Midfield - David Turnbull, Stevie Mallan, Callum McGregor Motherwell midfielder David Turnbull has been one of the newcomers of the season so far and scored the only goal of the game twice in four days for the Steelmen. The 19-year-old makes a quality contribution whenever he plays. There was, rightly, no great celebration from Stevie Mallan as the Hibs midfielder came back to haunt his old team St Mirren on Sunday. He had a hand in the first two goals then scored the clincher himself as Hibs moved up to seventh in the Premiership. Media playback is not supported on this device Highlights: St Mirren 1-3 Hibernian Another no-sweat Saturday for Celtic midfielder Callum McGregor as he quietly controlled the game against Hamilton Academical. The opening goal in a comfortable 3-0 win was his first since October but the Scotland stick-on does not get so many scoring chances these days as he continues to flourish in a deeper role. Forwards - Alfredo Morelos, Oli Shaw, Ryan Kent Alfredo Morelos looked happier doing his own thing in Rangers' emphatic win at Livi than trying to team up with Jermaine Defoe in the 2-1 defeat at Kilmarnock last Wednesday. He scored, hit the post and, on another day, would have had a hat-trick. You may say Oli Shaw played only 40 minutes of Hibs' defeat of St Mirren but his introduction off the bench made all the difference. Like team-mate Mallan, the 20-year-old striker scored one goal and was involved in the other two. Rangers winger Ryan Kent tormented the Livingston defence all Sunday afternoon at the Tony Macaroni Arena and lashed in the second goal. He's on loan from Liverpool and gaffer Steven Gerrard will be keen to make the temporary arrangement a permanent one. | https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47030632 |
Is Parliament's Brexit fog about to clear? | As much as I can feel your pain, don't bet on it. You've probably heard a lot of noise about the amendments that MPs will be voting on tomorrow night, not least from me. But there is no guarantee at all that any of them will pass. First, some Tory MPs are coming round to the government's deal, if they can cut out the bit they don't like (yes, of course, the backstop.) A lot of them have signed up to a way of making that clear, by supporting Sir Graham Brady's amendment. And if enough of them get on board it would allow the prime minister, in theory, to go back to the EU and say, tah dah! Look! I can get this deal through apart from this really pesky part, which might, as we've been reporting in the last few days, move things forward, despite the very strong warnings from Dublin that it can't happen. But, I wouldn't bet very much that Brexiteers will switch to back it in a coherent and decisive way. As I wrote last week, some Tory insiders are pushing for the prime minister to put her own amendment forward to say what she really wants. And if she doesn't, well, she may well be simply stuck in the same predicament. By the end of today it will be clearer where the numbers might lie. Iain Duncan Smith, the influential Brexiteer, has just told me: "The government should now place its own amendment setting out what it wants to achieve in the negotiations. This is the time when the PM must make clear her intentions in the negotiation, to seek support. We need more than back bench amendments with nods and winks from the government, we need clarity and purpose." In other words, if the PM is willing to front-up and say she will go and demand Brussels changes the backstop, they might play ball. But if she doesn't, don't expect the Brexiteer votes she needs to be suddenly forthcoming. But the government has an additional dilemma. If they try to stop MPs voting for the Brady plan (you can read more about it and the other amendments here) there's likely to be a rebellion against that attempt too. On the other side, there are MPs trying to create and take control of a set of brakes to stop the government from heading towards leaving the EU without a formal deal. Labour's Yvette Cooper's attempt is the most prominent and would be the most significant because it would commit to changing the law in a bill that would put Parliament in charge if the government can't get things sorted out by the end of February. But it doesn't have much of a hope of passing if Labour's frontbench team don't get behind it. They have made supportive noises about it, because their priority is to remove the possibility of a 'no deal' Brexit. But they have reservations about potentially delaying Brexit until Christmas, and indeed, just like the Tories, if they try to get MPs to vote for it officially by whipping the vote, they too would face their own rebellion because some MPs are implacably opposed. Again, by this evening we should have more sense of where the decisions might land. You wouldn't be blamed for thinking that all seems like Parliamentary fog. But until we see the numbers in the votes tomorrow, this week may not be the occasion when Parliament's view on Brexit becomes that much clearer. (Sorry!) | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47027641 |
Why was Bradley Cooper's mom and not Irina Shayk with him at the 2019 SAG Awards? | Bradley Cooper took his mom, Gloria Campano to the 2019 SAG Awards (Photo: Dimitrios Kambouris, Getty Images for Turner) Bradley Cooper showed up to the 2019 Screen Actors Guild Awards with his mom --leaving us all wondering where his girlfriend, Irina Shayk, was. The Russian supermodel appears to have been busy performing supermodel duties and couldn't attend the awards with Cooper. Shayk was in Moscow to attend a Marc Jacobs and Sephora event, according to a post from Shayk on Instagram. She was even spotted with some friends of her own, puppies Kolizey and Glinka. The 33-year-old also made appearances at Paris Fashion Week a few days before going to Russia. Although Cooper's longtime girlfriend was missing, the actor had his mom, Gloria Campano, to keep him company and support his nominations for Best Actor in a Leading Role and Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. Related: Bradley Cooper joins Lady Gaga for surprise 'Shallow' duet at her Las Vegas show More: SAG Awards 2019: What you didn't see on the telecast Winners: SAG Awards 2019 Read or Share this story: https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2019/01/28/why-irina-shayk-wasnt-bradley-cooper-sag-awards-gloria-campano/2698783002/ | https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2019/01/28/why-irina-shayk-wasnt-bradley-cooper-sag-awards-gloria-campano/2698783002/ |
What's Next For Commerce In 2019? | In January 2018, few people could have predicted that artificial-intelligence technology would become so commonplace in payments and commerce. But by late 2018, I was boarding planes using a facial scan and no boarding card and not stopping to pay at Amazon Go, because my items were tracked by artificial intelligence (AI). Last year was a breakout year for payments innovation. As the CEO of a global multi-industry trade association focused on growing online-to-offline commerce worldwide through cross-industry collaboration, common standards and strategic partnerships, I have met with industry leaders, investors and entrepreneurs to discuss their strategies and expectations for global commerce this coming year. Here are the top three themes that emerged for 2019. 1. Cross-Border Commerce Accelerates It seems counterintuitive. The U.S. is threatening new tariffs on China, and the European Union is stipulating the U.K.s tax policy even after Brexit. Yet cross-border commerce is positioned to explode in 2019. World tourism increased by 6% in the first half of 2018, and this trend will continue in 2019 as China and other nations use their newfound wealth to travel and buy new things and experiences. New technology platforms are making it easier for tourists to access local restaurants, shops and attractions by reducing the friction in purchases through multi-language support, international payment options or loyalty benefits. Cross-border trade is also accelerating online as payment networks and tech startups address traditional pain points to make shopping on a non-U.S.-based website as easy as on Amazon. 2. The Data Reckoning Recent scandals at Facebook and Marriott have put a renewed focus on consumer data breaches. What has not been covered well is the trend toward consumers gaining more control of their personal data. Europes General Data Protection Regulation, which went into effect in May, gave EU citizens the right to transfer their information from one company to another. This new right has inspired similar legislation in some states and the new Congress will likely consider this legislation in the coming year. In 2019, companies will fall into two categories: Those companies that consumers trust with their data and those companies that consumers dont trust due to their poor reputations. If your company ends up in that second category, your ability to compete will be damaged as consumers move their data and their business away from you. Trusted companies will abide by legislation like Californias recent consumer data privacy law, which requires consumer notification of the types of personal data companies collect and why, the right to request that personal information be deleted, the right to opt out of the sale of personal data and the ability to transfer personal information to third parties. To gain consumer trust, companies can be transparent when enacting policies that align with these principles and clearly communicate the changes and their benefits. As consumers turn toward trusted companies, these companies will continue to grow more quickly than others. You probably already know the companies that are not trusted. This will be a tough year for those companies. 3. Commerce And Offers Everywhere It is pretty clear that 2018 may be the peak of growth for the current economic cycle. As the U.S. and global economy and stock market face more limited growth and even potential decline, consumers will look for more value in their spending. According to The Wall Street Journal (paywall), 92% of card spending in the U.S. was on payments cards that offered cash-back rewards or card-linked offers. That trend will accelerate in 2019 as consumers increasingly expect perks and clever ways to save across all of their digital experiences. Consumers expect a card-linked offer when they search on Yelp and theyll find it. You got it at American Express Offers. But the deals are not just in search and shopping apps; in 2019, most digital platforms will add contextual offers and discounts, including Google, cars and much more. Contextual offers can take into consideration location, branding preferences, past shopping preferences and even the weather to present coupons and discounts consumers actually want when they need them. These highly personalized offers will provide greater value to consumers while generating more sales for retailers. Card-linked offers lead to more incremental sales as well as sales among first-time shoppers, a win-win. There will be offers everywhere! | https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2019/01/28/whats-next-for-commerce-in-2019/ |
Does January Transfer Window Spending Provide Short-Term Success? | Since its introduction in the 2002/03 season, the winter window has seen big-money moves, expensive flops and dramatic last-minute deals. While plenty think it is difficult to sign players in January, often because selling clubs would lack time to find a replacement, clubs still splash the cash if they see the value. The common belief is that the window is best for buying one or two players if the right ones are available, rather than a complete squad overhaul. But panic-buys are not uncommon the relegation-threatened team taking a chance on a new striker or the title-chasers replacing an injured centre-back. To see the effectiveness of doing business in January at least in the short-term Ive looked at the spending of Premier League clubs in the past five January windows. By looking at the biggest spending club and most expensive signing from each window, we can see whether they were costly mistakes or gambles worth taking. *Figures sourced from transfermarkt.com. All figures converted from EURO to USD $ at current exchange rate* Transfer window: January 2018 (season 17/18) Biggest spending club: Liverpool - $90 million Last Januarys transfer window saw a record amount $622.7 million spent by Premier League clubs. Liverpool were the biggest spenders, paying $90 million for two players (more below). However, the sale of Philippe Coutinho to Barcelona for $153.9 million meant they still finished the month with a decent profit. Most expensive signing: Virgil Van Dijk (Southampton to Liverpool) - $89.8 million Liverpool smashed the transfer record for the most expensive defender when they signed centre-back Virgil Van Dijk from Southampton. The Reds were fourth going into January but, with the worst defensive record of the top five, clearly felt Van Dijk was worth the money. Liverpool finished the season fourth but with an improved defence, conceding nine goals in the final 14 matches after Van Dijks arrival. Van Dijk has continued to show his value this season and has been crucial in helping Liverpool establish a four-point gap at the top of the table. Transfer window: January 2017 (season 16/17) Biggest spending club: Crystal Palace - $44.9 million Palace went into January in 17th, a place and two points above the relegation zone. Clearly feeling they needed immediate reinforcements, the Eagles brought in three players. As well as experienced Premier League players Jeffrey Schlupp and Patrick van Aanholt, Palace signed Serbian international midfielder Luka Milivojevic on deadline day. The club finished the season 14th, seven points clear of relegation zone. Considering the cost of relegation, Palace probably consider the January outlay money well spent. Most expensive signing: Morgan Schneiderlin (Manchester United to Everton): $26.1 million Though striker Gabriel Jesus arrived at Manchester City in January for $36.4 million, the transfer was actually agreed the previous summer. Midfielder Morgan Schneiderlin was the most expensive signing in January, arriving at Everton hungry to recapture the excellent form that convinced Manchester United to buy him from Southampton. Everton were seventh when he arrived and finished in the same position, but, after a bright start, Schneiderlins performances have dipped and he faces an uncertain future at the club. Transfer window: January 2016 (season 15/16) Biggest spending club: Newcastle United - $43 million Finding themselves in the bottom three halfway through the season, Newcastle forked out $43 million on three players they hoped could secure their survival. Midfielders Jonjo Shelvey, Andros Townsend and Henri Saivet arrived but could not prevent the Magpies finishing 18th and going down to the Championship. Most expensive signing: Giannelli Imbula (Porto to Stoke City) - $27.6 million Stoke City paid a club record fee to sign Giannelli Imbula on deadline day. The 23-year-old Frenchman was a highly-rated defensive midfielder and made a good early impression in a Stoke side that went on to finish a respectable ninth. But the following season Imbula fell out of favor and has spent the past two seasons on loan. Transfer window: January 2015 (season 14/15) Biggest spending club: Manchester City - $36.8 million In a relatively quiet window, Manchester City were the biggest spenders but only signed one player. They narrowly edged eventual champions Chelsea, who paid $35.3 million for Colombian winger Juan Cuadrado. One move that was easy to miss, but in hindsight would be considered by far the best bargain of the window, was Dele Allis move from MK Dons to Spurs for just $7.5 million. Most expensive signing: Wilfried Bony (Swansea City to Manchester City) - $36.8 million City splashed out on Swansea striker Wilfried Bony as they tried to catch Chelsea in that seasons title race. However Bony only scored twice in two matches and City had to settle for the runner-up spot. Things didnt get much better for Bony and he was sent on loan to Stoke City before rejoining Swansea, two-and-a-half-years after he left. Transfer window: January 2014 (season 13/14) Biggest spending club: Chelsea - $64 million Nemanja Matic, Kurt Zouma and a certain Mohamed Salah (signed for $18.8 million) agreed to join Chelsea in January 2014. Though the club finished the season third, in later seasons Matic was a key member of the starting 11 and Zouma, though currently on loan, has been a useful part of the squad. Things didnt work out for Salah but, as we now all know, it wasnt down to a lack of talent. Chelsea were the biggest window spenders but still brought in more than they spent, largely due to the sale of Juan Mata (see below). However they might also look back at this window with regret after selling another player who went on to great things current Manchester City midfielder Kevin De Bruyne. Most expensive signing: Juan Mata (Chelsea to Manchester United) - $51 million Midfield schemer Juan Mata arrived at Old Trafford with big expectations after establishing himself as one of the leagues most creative players while at Chelsea. He made an immediate impact but couldnt help United finish higher than seventh a disaster for the club that saw manager David Moyes sacked. Mata is now in his sixth season with United and, having make more than 150 appearances, his signing must be considered a success. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertkidd/2019/01/28/does-january-transfer-window-spending-provide-short-term-success/ |
Will Salary Cap Strapped Eagles Be Willing To Spend Big Bucks To Fill Running Back Need? | Once upon a time the running back reigned supreme in the NFL. Yes, maybe even more than the quarterback. Of course, back then while teams would still get a bit more yardage through the air than on the ground, its nowhere close to the disparity in todays game. For example, in 1978, the first season the League went to a 16-game schedule, teams averaged 2,541 yards passing and 2,269 yards rushing, with a number of teamsincluding the New England Patriotsdoing better on the ground. But over the past four decades the trend has changed dramatically, topped this season when teams threw for an average 3,804 per team while rushing for 1,833. Its more than the mere numbersthe fact the Eagles threw for 4,275 yards in 2018seventh best in the NFL--while rushing for 1,612, only 27th out of 32. Its more than Carson Wentz, Nick Foles and third stringer Nate Sudfeld throwing for 29 touchdowns and 221 first downs while the revolving door of running backsJay Ajayi, Corey Clement, Wendell Smallwood, rookie and leading ground gainer Josh Adams and Darren Sproles--managed just 12 scores and 100 first downs. In a manner of speaking the Eagles need a franchise back to in NFL parlance essentially keep up with the Joneses--and we don't just mean Jerry. They need a LeVeon Bell, Mark Ingram, Latavius Murray, Tevin Coleman or Kareem Hunt to stay on a level playing field with teams not only in their Division, but throughout the rest of the NFC. In addition to toting the rock for 1,434 and 1,307 yards respectivelyranking them Nos. 1 and 2 in the LeagueElliott and Barkley tacked on 567 and 721 yards receiving respectively. The Eagles simply have no one close to that level, which has put inordinate pressure on their quarterbacks and receivers. Should Philadelphia manage to overcome that deficiency to make it back to the post-season, that would likely mean having to go against a Todd Gurley of the Rams (1,251 yards rushing, 1,831 combined), the Saints Alvin Kamara (883 rushing, 1,592 combined) and/or the Panthers Christian McCaffery (1,098 rushing, 1,965 combined). But presuming there was a Bell or comparable feature back to take some of the load of Wentzassuming he remains their quarterback despite the recently published account of how a number of unnamed teammates consider him selfish and overly demanding it could do wonders for their offense. The trick, of course, is getting one. Should the answer coming from general manager Howie Roseman and player personnel head Joe Douglas essentially be We want Bell, then the Eagles should be prepared to pay. Well, after sitting out the season rather than go along when the Steelers put a $14.1 million franchise tag on him, the 26-year-old Bell will surely want to cash in once he hits the free agent market. Coming off a 2017 season where he amassed 1,291 yards rushing, 1,946 combined with 11 touchdowns, Bell was hoping to pick up where he left off. Instead, hes now had a full season off. Where exactly the market falls for a 6-1, 225 lb. back who's rumbled for 5,336 yards and 35 touchdowns over his five-year career and caught 312 passes for 2,660 yards and seven more scores, is uncertain. Prior to the start of the season the Rams signed Gurley to a four-year, $57.5 million deal, while Arizonas David Johnson just finished up Year One of his three-year, $39 million contract. That list includes defensive linemen Brandon Graham, Chris Long, Tim Jernigan and Michael Bennett, defensive backs Ronald Darby and Rodney McLeod, linebacker Jordan Hicks, receivers Golden Tate, Mike Wallace and Jordan Matthews, offensive tackle Jason Peter, along with Ajayi and Sproles. More intriguing would be pursuit of the 23-year-old Hunt, the NFL's leading rusher as a rookie in 2017, who was unceremoniously released by the Chiefs after video surfaced of him punching and kicking a woman in a Cleveland hotel hallway. While that might lead to an outcry from domestic abuse organizations and those whove embraced the #MeToo movement, it wouldnt be the first time the Eagles went against public opinion. Back in 2009 many were outraged when Philadelphia signed Michael Vick, whod just been released from prison for leading a dog-fighting ring, which sanctioned killing dogs. But Vick proved to be a model citizen off the field, while leading the Eagles to the 2010 playoffs. So there is precedent on Hunts side, plus an obvious need at the position. The one variable might be impending free agent Jay Ajayi, who tore his ACL in the fifth game of the season. When healthy the 26-year-old Ajayi can be a dynamic force, rushing for 408 yards in seven games after being acquired from the Dolphins midway through the 2017 season for a fourth round pick. Prior to that he gained 1,924 yards in two-plus seasons in Miami. The bottom line is Ajayi, who's had chronic knee issues and had been hoping for a big payday when he hit the market will instead likely have to accept a short term deal and prove he can stay healthy. Possibly, but the Eagles, who had to play large portions of the season without Sproles and Clement, may not be able to afford that risk. The Draft is certainly an option but keep in mind the Eagles havent selected a first round running back since tabbing Keith Byars, whom then coach Buddy Ryan referred to as a medical reject in 1986. They've had far better success in the later rounds, in 2002 getting Brian Westbrook late in the third, followed by 2009 second rounder LeSean McCoy. So don't be surprised if they go that route again. And to be fair, they've also had success signing undrafted free agents like Clement and Adams the last two years. In reality, though, the Eagles will probably have to look outside to fill their need. And while there won't be any Jim Browns, Gayle Sayers, Walter Paytons or Barry Sanders out on the free agent block, there might be someone who can help them. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarks/2019/01/28/will-salary-cap-strapped-eagles-be-willing-to-spend-big-bucks-to-fill-running-back-need/ |
Are Smart Biometric Garments Going To Replace My Family Doctor? | With the advent of consumer grade smart biometric garments, these features are already available to early adopters since 2015. These sci-fi worthy smart clothing are a direct outcome of two separate sets of product innovations. Since 2005 application based health trackers in smart-phones have shown that consumers are willing continuously to track their health and since 2007 wearables like Fitbit and Apple Watches have proved that a large subset of these consumers is willing to pay for wearable devices to more accurately track their own biometric and behavioural patterns. A smart garment promises to do both, without the user having to wear additional devices. The most common type of smart clothing is compression shirts with built-in single-lead ECG to track heart rate and heart rate variability. These shirts typically come in multiple sizes and shapes, with additional built-in sensors to monitor movement, position, respiratory rate and body temperature. Montreal based company Hexoskin and OMSignal are leaders in the space. New York-based Supa and Germany based AmbioTex also have similar products. Athos smart clothing have built-in micro-EMG sensors that detect muscle activity during a workout and is primarily targeted at body-builders and gym goers doing weight training. Polar pioneered the smart clothing market with its single lead ECG based chest straps (Polar H10 Pro). Polar has also developed the Polar OH1 optical heart rate sensor that uses an optical sensor to measure heart rate. Companies like Biotricity have secured FDA clearance to create similar products for patients that need continuous remote monitoring at the hospital or at home. However smart clothing can do more than just biometric tracking. Levi's Commuter Trucker Jacket co-launched with Google's Project Jacquard platform can read gesture and help users will be able to interact with a variety of music and map apps. Smart socks developed by companies like Sensoria are designed to track movement and give feedback to users about their running styles. Sirens smart sock is aimed at preventing diabetics' foot injuries. Owlet Smart Socks 2 is designed for babies and track their heart rate and blood oxygen saturation, which inturn helps parents to be proactive about their babys health. The smart clothing has grown significantly since 2015. New research by Juniper Research predicts that more than 7 million smart clothing units will be shipped to consumers units by 2020, and this number will increase to 30 million by 2022. Among the wearable marketplace, the smart clothing is growing at 102% CAGR, compared to hearables and smart-watches which are both growing at 31% CAGR. Juniper Research also predicts that the smart-clothing market will grow in value to US$ 1 billion in the next two years. The supply chain of smart garments is complex and involves multiple product-lines for the electronics, casing and garment that are then finally integrated into a single product. To reduce these manufacturing complexities, the final product is often designed to be functional rather than fashionable. For example, by choosing to use a single design for the compression garment companies can significantly reduce the setup cost. As a direct result of this, the smart garment industry is currently targeted at early adopters like gadget enthusiasts and professional athletes. To capture the market at large the smart clothing brands and OEMs should collaborate with fashion design houses towards improving design features such look, the comfort of wear (breathability and lightness), ease of recharging the device, and durability. This will encourage more late-stage adopters to buy smart apparel. The smart clothing brands and OEMs should also focus on developing programmes to train family doctors and sports coaches to meaningfully extract insights from the biometric and motion data and use it in practice to better diagnose chronic diseases. This will ensure that the smart-clothing becomes the pill of the future that the doctor can already prescribe today. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/shourjyasanyal/2019/01/28/are-smart-biometric-garments-going-to-replace-my-family-doctor/ |
Is a will really needed for a couple without kids? | Q: We live in Texas and have no children. Everything we own is community property acquired during our 25 years of marriage, and the assets we do have wouldn't turn any heads. A: You should definitely have a will. What occurs when one of you dies depends on the types of assets you own. You didnt mention whether you own any real estate, but if you do, then having a will would be useful if there is a need to put the property into the name of the surviving spouse. Also, if you have any accounts that are not survivorship accounts, or other investments that are not payable to the surviving spouse, then a will would make it easy to get those assets into the name of the surviving spouse. The main reason you both should have wills is because of what happens after you both have died. Keep in mind, the two of you might die together in a common occurrence. Or one of you might die, and the survivor might never get around to signing a will. Without a will, you will be leaving the disposition of your assets up to Texas law, with your property passing to those who are considered to be your next of kin by statute. Often, these are not the people you would want inheriting your estate. Q: I assisted my mother-in-law through probate after the death of my father-in-law. We were able to obtain letters testamentary with the assistance of the military legal office. She resides in their house, and the deed is still in both their names. She plans to live in the house for as long as she can. A: Your father-in-law's will serves as a deed that transfers his half ownership interest in the house to your mother-in-law. Many lawyers would have prepared an executor's deed in conjunction with the probate, but in your mother-in-law's situation, it probably was not necessary. When your mother-in-law decides to sell the house, a title company will have no trouble checking the probate records to determine that your mother is the sole owner of the home. If she wants, your mother-in-law can have the property tax records changed to reflect that she is the sole owner. For instance, in Harris County she would use Harris County Appraisal District Form 2525(b), available at hcad.org. She would need to check the box to indicate there is a new owner, and she would need to attach copies of the will and the order admitting the will to probate. The information in this column is intended to provide a general understanding of the law, not legal advice. Readers with legal problems, including those whose questions are addressed here, should consult attorneys for advice on their particular circumstances. Lipman of the Houston law firm Lipman & Associates is board-certified in estate planning and probate law by the Texas Board of Legal Specialization. Email questions to [email protected]. | https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/lipman/article/Is-a-will-really-needed-for-a-couple-without-kids-13549770.php |
Can Strong Cloud Growth Propel Alibaba's (BABA) Q3 Earnings? | Alibaba Group Holding Limiteds BABA expanding core commerce and cloud portfolio is expected to have performed well, which will likely be reflected when the company reports fiscal third-quarter 2018 results on Jan 30. Alibabas cloud business has fast emerged as a major contributor to top-line growth. In the last reported quarter, revenues in its core commerce segment were up 56% year over year to RMB72.5 billion (US$10.5 billion). Revenues from the cloud computing segment increased 90% from the prior-year quarter to RMB5.7 billion (US$825 million). Click here to know how the companys overall fiscal third-quarter performance is expected to be. Lets Delve Deeper Alibabas core commerce segment comprises marketplaces operating in retail and wholesale commerce in China, and international commerce. Innovation in data technology, widespread application of big data, as well as increasing validation for Taobao and Tmall portals will continue to expand revenues in this segment. The Cloud Computing segment, which comprises Alibaba Cloud offering a complete suite of cloud services, is in top gear. Management remains positive about the cloud computing business, as more and more businesses are shifting their servers and broadband subscriptions to cloud computing technology in order to streamline costs. The company is considering cloud computing as a means to diversify business beyond retail. Revenues from this segment have been impressive over the past few quarters. Sales growth accelerated in the fiscal second quarter, driven by an increase in the number of paying customers and improved revenue mix of higher valued-added services. Lately, Alibabas cloud computing business has been gaining a lot of traction. It is a dominant force in China, but has also gained traction in other regions. The company has opened new data centers across the world, particularly in Asia and Europe. Lately, it has also opened a data center in U.K. in a bid to expand the cloud business. In addition, Alibaba has been introducing new products based on the emerging technology of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and Internet of Things (IoT) to cater to the rising demand for cloud architecture, along with data analytics and security in the retail industry. These products assist the retail clients of the company to implement its New Retail concept in business operations. Given the growing position of Alibabas cloud business in China and aggressive international expansion strategies, we believe that cloud computing will be one of the major growth drivers in the long run. Alibaba Group Holding Limited Revenue (TTM) Alibaba Group Holding Limited Revenue (TTM) | Alibaba Group Holding Limited Quote Zacks Rank & Key Picks Currently, Alibaba carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Some better-ranked stocks in the broader technology sector are Twitter, Inc. TWTR, Cloudera, Inc. CLDR and Groupon GRPN. While Twitter and Cloudera sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Groupon carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of todays Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. Long-term earnings growth rate for Twitter, Clouder and Groupon is currently pegged at 22.1%, 8% and 3%, respectively. | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strong-cloud-growth-propel-alibabas-133401969.html |
Is a Beat in Store for Hawaiian Holdings (HA) in Q4 Earnings? | Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. HA is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2018 results on Jan 29, after market close. In the third quarter, the company delivered mixed results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. However, the top line improved year over year on the back of strong passenger revenues. Hawaiian Holdings has an impressive earnings surprise history. The companys earnings surpassed the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 14.4%. Factors at Play Hawaiian Holdings is expected to perform well in the fourth quarter on the back of efforts to modernize fleet. The company is continuously remodeling the A330 fleet by adding lie flat premium seats. Additionally, the exit of Island Air has strengthened Hawaiian Holdings foothold in Hawaii. Efforts to expand scope of operations are expected to boost top-line results in the to-be-reported quarter. Furthermore, strong passenger revenues are anticipated to drive the top line in the to-be-reported quarter, as they account for a major portion of the companys revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2018 passenger revenues is pegged at $636 million. Moreover, the current tax law is a boon for U.S.-based transportation companies like Hawaiian Holdings. The significant cut in corporate tax rate is likely to boost cash flow, which will drive the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter. Additionally, with oil prices declining nearly 40% in the October-December period, fuel costs are expected to be less of a headwind in the to-be-reported quarter. The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter average fuel cost per gallon is pegged at $2.20, lower than $2.26 reported in the third quarter of 2018. However, we are concerned about the companys unit revenues and capacity-related woes. These concerns are likely to dent bottom-line growth in the to-be-reported quarter. Our proven model shows that Hawaiian Holdings is likely to beat estimates in the to-be-reported quarter, as it has the perfect combination of the following key ingredients: Earnings ESP: Hawaiian Holdings has an Earnings ESP of +1.63%. The Most Accurate Estimate is at $1 per share, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 98 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before theyre reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. Zacks Rank: Hawaiian Holdings carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Notably, stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 have higher chances of beating estimates. Conversely, we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions. Stocks to Consider Investors interested in the Zacks Transportation sector may check other companies with the right combination of elements to beat estimates in the upcoming releases. Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. EXPD has an Earnings ESP of +0.39% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company will release fourth-quarter 2018 results on Feb 19. You can see the complete list of todays Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. | https://news.yahoo.com/beat-store-hawaiian-holdings-q4-132401935.html |
Is Anthony Davis Trying to Force His Way to the Lakers? | The Anthony Davis era in New Orleans reached its inevitable denouement Monday, when Daviss agent Rich Paul told ESPNs Adrian Wojnarowski the star forward has requested a trade from the Pelicans. Davis is under contract through next season, but hes informed the team he wont sign an extension this summer, a surefire indication that hell leave via free agency if hes not traded. Of course, all sorts of baseless rumors will appear now that Daviss request has been made public. I happen to believe thats an obvious yes! It doesnt take Oz the Mentalist to read the tea leaves here. Davis shares an agent with James. If Paul and Davis had made the request during the summer, the Celtics couldve made perhaps the most appealing trade offer to New Orleans, based around a young player (or two) and a bevy of draft picks. But because of the Rose Rule, Boston cant acquire Davis while Kyrie Irving is on his current contract (or until after July 1.) That means if New Orleans seriously attempts to deal Davis before the trade deadline, the Celtics are all but out of the runningunless they make the shocking decision to move Irving. (You probably know all of this already.) Anthony Davis Requests Trade From Pelicans Essentially, I dont see any reason why Paul would somewhat handicap Boston unless Davis indicated he doesnt have a strong desire to play there. Its still beneficial for the Pelicans to know sooner rather than later Daviss intentions, but making the request public nowand hinting that Davis would like to be moved before the trade deadlineseems to be something of a message to the Celtics. A message like, even if Boston eventually trades for Davis, it will have to put on the full-court press to re-sign him. Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images Now, there are plenty of caveats here. New Orleans is under no obligation to rush this trade. They can wait until the summer for the best package. The Pelicans have also no reason to deal Davis to the Lakers unless they are enamored with L.A.s prospectsthe same group of players who have struggled without James on the floor. Basically, making the trade request now doesnt guarantee Davis is going to end up with LeBron (no matter how many photoshops youll encounter in the coming days.) What it may do is give Davis a little better chance of ending up in L.A. than if he made the request public in the offseason. (Of course, there are going to be wild cards that enter this race. As weve seen repeatedly over the last couple seasons, stars who try to force their way to a certain teamPaul George, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonardoften end up somewhere surprising.) SHAPIRO: Considering Trades for NBA's Great Albatrose Deals A real galaxy brain reading of this scenario is that LeBron, through Paul and Davis, is strongly suggesting to the Lakers that he wants to be on a contender right awaycontrary to some offseason comments. L.A.s front office held back when George and Leonard were on the trade market, and its not hard to imagine LeBron is getting restless as his teammates have fallen out of a playoff spot during his extended absence. Pauls public declaration is begging for the Lakers to swing big for Davis. If L.A. doesnt make its top offer, the Pelicans could and should wait until the summer for Bostons best possible package (while obviously also looking at every other teamits not a two-horse race.) LeBron is reportedly already cool on Luke Walton, so its not a stretch to speculate he could be growing impatient with management, and Pauls public comments are now some sort of backroom ploy to put pressure on Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka to deliver a winner more quickly. Daviss request means were in the endgame now, but its impossible to know which of the millions of realities hell end up in. Paul has already told Marc Stein that Davis has not given the Pelicans a list of preferred destinations. But by making the trade request now, it seems as if Davis is dropping a pretty major hint. | https://www.si.com/nba/2019/01/28/anthony-davis-pelicans-lakers-trade-request-rumors-lebron-james-rich-paul |
Could 'Alita' be Hollywood's breakthrough manga movie? | WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) The manga movie "Alita: Battle Angel" has been 20 years in the making, and producer Jon Landau thinks it will finally be the breakthrough success in Hollywood for a genre which has proved problematic. Landau says previous manga movies that haven't worked have been Asian-centric in their worlds, whereas "Alita" is set in a melting-pot world and traverses universal themes of discovery and self-awareness. The film has an estimated budget of $200 million and Twentieth Century Fox will be hoping for a much better reception than Paramount's 2017 manga flop "Ghost in the Shell." "Alita" tells the story of cyborg Alita played by Rosa Salazar who awakens without memory in a dystopic world. It will be released in theaters in the U.S. on Feb. 14. | https://www.sfchronicle.com/entertainment/article/Could-Alita-be-Hollywood-s-breakthrough-manga-13567049.php |
Will L Brands (LB) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report? | It is worth considering L Brands (LB), which belongs to the Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry. This owner of Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works and other chain stores has an established record of topping earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The company boasts an average surprise for the past two quarters of 6.27%. For the last reported quarter, L Brands came out with earnings of $0.16 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.15 per share, representing a surprise of 6.67%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $0.34 per share and it actually produced earnings of $0.36 per share, delivering a surprise of 5.88%. Price and EPS Surprise For L Brands, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank. Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. L Brands currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.91%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner. We expect the company's next earnings report to be released on February 27, 2019. When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss. Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate. Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report L Brands, Inc. (LB) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | https://news.yahoo.com/l-brands-lb-beat-estimates-151003356.html |
Will Ladder Capital (LADR) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report? | It is worth considering Ladder Capital (LADR), which belongs to the Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry. This commercial real estate mortgage origination and finance company has an established record of topping earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The company boasts an average surprise for the past two quarters of 30%. For the last reported quarter, Ladder Capital came out with earnings of $0.59 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.40 per share, representing a surprise of 47.50%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $0.40 per share and it actually produced earnings of $0.45 per share, delivering a surprise of 12.50%. Price and EPS Surprise For Ladder Capital, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank. Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Ladder Capital currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.53%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner. We expect the company's next earnings report to be released on February 26, 2019. When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss. Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate. Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Ladder Capital Corp (LADR) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | https://news.yahoo.com/ladder-capital-ladr-beat-estimates-151003639.html |
Can Black Stone Minerals (BSM) Keep the Earnings Surprise Streak Alive? | If you are looking for a stock that has a solid history of beating earnings estimates and is in a good position to maintain the trend in its next quarterly report, you should consider Black Stone Minerals (BSM). This company, which is in the Zacks Energy and Pipeline - Master Limited Partnerships industry, shows potential for another earnings beat. This partnership that owns mineral and royalty interests has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was -14.08%. For the most recent quarter, Black Stone Minerals was expected to post earnings of $0.26 per share, but it reported $0.27 per share instead, representing a surprise of 3.85%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $0.25 per share, while it actually produced $0.17 per share, a surprise of 32%. Price and EPS Surprise Thanks in part to this history, there has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Black Stone Minerals lately. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the stock is positive, which is a great indicator of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with its solid Zacks Rank. Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Black Stone Minerals has an Earnings ESP of +12.73% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's next earnings report is expected to be released on February 25, 2019. When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss. Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate. Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | https://news.yahoo.com/black-stone-minerals-bsm-keep-151003735.html |
Will Square (SQ) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report? | Square (SQ), which belongs to the Zacks Internet - Software industry, could be a great candidate to consider. This mobile payments services provider has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 18.18%. For the last reported quarter, Square came out with earnings of $0.13 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.11 per share, representing a surprise of 18.18%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $0.11 per share and it actually produced earnings of $0.13 per share, delivering a surprise of 18.18%. Price and EPS Surprise With this earnings history in mind, recent estimates have been moving higher for Square. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is positive, which is a great sign of an earnings beat, especially when you combine this metric with its nice Zacks Rank. Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Square has an Earnings ESP of +6.60% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's next earnings report is expected to be released on February 26, 2019. Investors should note, however, that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss, but a negative value does reduce the predictive power of this metric. Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate. Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | https://news.yahoo.com/square-sq-beat-estimates-again-151003857.html |
Can TJX (TJX) Keep the Earnings Surprise Streak Alive? | TJX (TJX), which belongs to the Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry, could be a great candidate to consider. This parent of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and other stores has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 7.30%. For the last reported quarter, TJX came out with earnings of $0.63 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.61 per share, representing a surprise of 3.28%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $0.53 per share and it actually produced earnings of $0.59 per share, delivering a surprise of 11.32%. Price and EPS Surprise For TJX, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank. Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. TJX currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.88%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner. We expect the company's next earnings report to be released on February 27, 2019. When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss. Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate. Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | https://news.yahoo.com/tjx-tjx-keep-earnings-surprise-151003018.html |
Can Palo Alto (PANW) Keep the Earnings Surprise Streak Alive? | If you are looking for a stock that has a solid history of beating earnings estimates and is in a good position to maintain the trend in its next quarterly report, you should consider Palo Alto Networks (PANW). This company, which is in the Zacks Security industry, shows potential for another earnings beat. When looking at the last two reports, this security software maker has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 10.42%, on average, in the last two quarters. For the most recent quarter, Palo Alto was expected to post earnings of $1.05 per share, but it reported $1.17 per share instead, representing a surprise of 11.43%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $1.17 per share, while it actually produced $1.28 per share, a surprise of 9.40%. Price and EPS Surprise Thanks in part to this history, there has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Palo Alto lately. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the stock is positive, which is a great indicator of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with its solid Zacks Rank. Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Palo Alto has an Earnings ESP of +0.97% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's next earnings report is expected to be released on February 25, 2019. When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss. Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate. Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | https://news.yahoo.com/palo-alto-panw-keep-earnings-151003273.html |
Can Cognizant (CTSH) Keep the Earnings Surprise Streak Alive? | Cognizant (CTSH), which belongs to the Zacks Business - Software Services industry, could be a great candidate to consider. This information technology consulting and outsourcing firm has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 6.75%. For the last reported quarter, Cognizant came out with earnings of $1.19 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.13 per share, representing a surprise of 5.31%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $1.10 per share and it actually produced earnings of $1.19 per share, delivering a surprise of 8.18%. Price and EPS Surprise For Cognizant, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank. Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Cognizant currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.94%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner. We expect the company's next earnings report to be released on February 6, 2019. When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss. Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate. Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation (CTSH) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research | https://news.yahoo.com/cognizant-ctsh-keep-earnings-surprise-151003761.html |
Can Oneok (OKE) Keep the Earnings Surprise Streak Alive? | If you are looking for a stock that has a solid history of beating earnings estimates and is in a good position to maintain the trend in its next quarterly report, you should consider Oneok Inc. (OKE). This company, which is in the Zacks Utility - Gas Distribution industry, shows potential for another earnings beat. When looking at the last two reports, this natural gas company has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 3.56%, on average, in the last two quarters. For the most recent quarter, Oneok was expected to post earnings of $0.71 per share, but it reported $0.75 per share instead, representing a surprise of 5.63%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $0.67 per share, while it actually produced $0.68 per share, a surprise of 1.49%. Price and EPS Surprise Thanks in part to this history, there has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Oneok lately. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the stock is positive, which is a great indicator of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with its solid Zacks Rank. Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Oneok has an Earnings ESP of +1.65% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's next earnings report is expected to be released on February 25, 2019. When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss. Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate. Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research | https://news.yahoo.com/oneok-oke-keep-earnings-surprise-151003271.html |
Will Lower Revenues Hurt QUALCOMM's (QCOM) Q1 Earnings? | QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2019 financial results after the closing bell on Jan 30. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 8.4%. Notably, Qualcomm surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, the average beat being 18.5%. Headwinds related to Apple are likely to affect the chip makers revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. Revenues from Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT), which accounts for the lions share of total revenues, and Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL) segments are estimated to decline year over year. Whether this will weigh on the quarterly earnings remains to be seen. Factors at Play During the fiscal first quarter, Qualcomm alongside Nokia achieved over-the-air (OTA) 5G NR data calls in the mmWave and sub-6 GHz spectrum bands. Notably, it was in compliance with the global 3GPP 5G NR Release 15 specification in Non-Standalone mode. The successful OTA testing marked an important step for the probable commercial deployment of 5G services in 2019. In addition, Qualcomm unveiled its new processor Snapdragon 855. This latest generation of mobile phone processor chips is expected to power 5G smartphones in the United States in 2019. The company expects the chip to appear in the first wave of 5G phones as this new platform supports multi-gigabit download speeds on 5G networks. The key feature of Snapdragon 855 chip is a modem for phones to connect to 5G wireless data networks with mobile data speeds of up to 50 or 100 times faster than current 4G networks. Being the largest supplier of mobile phone chips, Qualcomm maintains a distinctive position in the mobile space, particularly in the United States. This should help it achieve its target of introducing Snapdragon 855 in most major flagship smartphones in 2019. During the quarter, a court in China ruled that Apple-manufactured iPhones have infringed on two patents of Qualcomm. The judge issued an embargo on sales of some iPhone models in China. The Fuzhou Intermediate People's Court in China held Apple guilty of twin patent infringement and ordered an immediate ban on sales of older iPhone models, from the 6S through the X in the country. Furthermore, Apple was held guilty of patent infringement in a German court. The District Court of Munich ordered a permanent injunction to the sale of some iPhone models in the country as these were found to infringe upon Qualcomms intellectual property right for power savings in smartphones. Top-Line Contraction Qualcomm expects growth, both on volume and improving mix of devices from its China business in fiscal 2019, particularly in the second half. However, the companys fiscal first-quarter results are likely to be affected as Apple asked its contract manufacturers to stop paying royalty payments and decided to use Qualcomms rival Intels modem for its latest device. Qualcomm is expected to have shipped 185 million MSM chipsets during the quarter. Qualcomm believes that more than 50% of the expected fiscal 2019 headwind related to Apple will be reflected in its fiscal first-quarter results, while impacting its QCT business. As the year progresses, this will become less impactful to quarterly results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the QCT is currently pegged at $3,806 million. It reported $4,651 million in first-quarter fiscal 2018. The segments income before taxes is expected to decline to $534 million from $955 million reported a year ago. Revenues from the QTL are expected to decline to $1,051 million from $1,299 million, primarily due to continuity of nonpayment of royalties by Apple and the other licensee. The impact of these nonpayment has largely eliminated the seasonal effects in QTL business. For fiscal first quarter, the company considers the change in its share in Apple from approximately 50% modem share in first-quarter fiscal 2018 to zero in the flagship launches in the to-be-reported quarter. The segments income before taxes is expected to decline to $582 million from $887 million. Consequently, total revenues for the quarter are likely to fall to $4,885 million from $6,068 million reported in the year-earlier quarter. Adjusted earnings per share are pegged at $1.08. The company reported earnings of 98 cents a year ago. What Our Model Says Despite the impediments, our proven model shows that Qualcomm is likely to beat earnings this quarter as it possesses both the two key components. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is exactly the case here as you will see below: Earnings ESP: Qualcomms Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +1.33% as the former is pegged at $1.09 and the latter at $1.08. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before theyre reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. QUALCOMM Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise QUALCOMM Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise | QUALCOMM Incorporated Quote Zacks Rank: Qualcomm currently has a Zacks Rank #3. This increases the predictive power of ESP and makes us reasonably confident of an earnings beat. Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing a negative estimate revisions momentum. Other Stocks to Consider Here are some other companies that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter: Sprint Corporation S has an Earnings ESP of +13.33% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of todays Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. Columbus McKinnon Corporation CMCO has an Earnings ESP of +6.90% and a Zacks Rank #2. ABIOMED, Inc. ABMD has an Earnings ESP of +2.60% and a Zacks Rank #2. Our annual Top 10s have beaten the market with amazing regularity. In 2018, while the market dropped -5.2%, the portfolio scored well into double-digits overall with individual stocks rising as high as +61.5%. And from 2012-2017, while the market boomed +126.3, Zacks' Top 10s reached an even more sensational +181.9%. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report ABIOMED, Inc. (ABMD) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research | https://news.yahoo.com/lower-revenues-hurt-qualcomms-qcom-150703673.html |
Could Alita be Hollywoods breakthrough manga movie? | WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) The manga movie Alita: Battle Angel has been 20 years in the making, and producer Jon Landau thinks it will finally represent the breakthrough success in Hollywood for a genre which has proved problematic. I think this is definitely the breakthrough one because of the story that Kishiro wrote, said Landau, referring to Japanese author Yukito Kishiro, who wrote the graphic novels, or manga, upon which the movie is based. You know, other mangas that have not worked have been very Asian-centric in their world, and in their stories, Landau said. And Kishiro wrote a melting-pot world. He didnt write a central character that was Asian. He wrote universal themes of discovery, of self-awareness, for these characters. And thats whats relatable to people across the globe. The film has an estimated budget of $200 million and when it opens in February, Twentieth Century Fox will be hoping for a much better reception than Paramounts 2017 flop Ghost in the Shell. That manga movie didnt seem to connect with audiences, grossing just $41 million in the U.S. and $170 million worldwide, with some critics accusing it of whitewashing after Scarlett Johansson was cast in the lead role. Alita tells the story of cyborg Alita (Rosa Salazar) who awakens without memory in a dystopic world where shes taken in by a compassionate father figure Dr. Dyson Ido (Christoph Waltz). As she learns to navigate her new world, she begins to discover her latent fighting powers and develops feelings for street-smart Hugo (Keean Johnson). Landau said director James Cameron first fell in love with the Alita novels in 1999, and spent five years working on a script that ballooned to nearly 200 pages with 600 pages of notes. He says Cameron got waylaid working on Avatar (2009) and its sequels before one day having a social lunch with director Robert Rodriguez. He said if you can crack this down to a shooting length, you can direct it, Landau recalls. And Robert did. During principal filming in Austin, Texas, Salazar wore a motion-capture suit so her character could later be animated to reflect its look in the novels. When the first trailers came out last year, some viewers said Alitas eyes appeared huge to the point of being creepy. Senior visual effects supervisor Joe Letteri, from the Weta Digital studio in New Zealands capital Wellington, said they discussed the eyes with Cameron, and he had the opposite reaction, telling them they had held back and should go bigger. And it wasnt the size of the eyes, it was the size of the pupils, Letteri said. Because that was a quality in the book, that sort of doll-like quality, and he thought we should bring that out more. And it worked. Salazar, who previously appeared in Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials (2015), said she completed many months of martial arts training in disciplines like Muay Thai to prepare for the fight sequences. It was a lot of working through soreness, working through pain, getting my endurance up, she said. She broke some ribs during her training, she said. I fell on my ribs doing a whip kick, she said. My other foot just kind of gave out, my other leg kind of swept from under me, and I fell directly on my ribs. I couldnt breathe for a little while. She said she always trusted her character would look good on the screen after Rodriguez showed her some concept art before she got the role. They had a vision, she said. They stuck to that vision. I trust their vision. And then that is what we ended up with. She said she can empathize with the way Alita transforms from a girl to a woman in the movie, after shedding one body for another. I could relate to that when I was 14 and I felt like a mutant, she said. Waltz, who played Col. Hans Landa in Inglourious Basterds, said he had no experience with graphic novels before reading up on Alita. The manga, comic, graphic novel thing is not my world at all, he said. I know nothing about it. And I realize that there is a vast field to be discovered. Other roles in the movie are played by Mahershala Ali (Vector), Eiza Gonzalez (Nyssiana) and Jennifer Connelly (Chiren). Alita: Battle Angel will be released in theaters in the U.S. on Feb. 14. It is rated PG-13 for sequences of science-fiction violence and action, and for some language. | https://www.seattletimes.com/entertainment/could-alita-be-hollywoods-breakthrough-manga-movie/?utm_source=RSS&utm_medium=Referral&utm_campaign=RSS_nation-world |
What Was Timothee Chalamet Was Reading At The SAG Awards? | The 25th SAG Awards had plenty of memorable moments on stage, but Timothe Chalamet managed to grab the at-home audiences attention while quietly sitting at his table at the show. As host Megan Mullally delievered her opening monologue, the cameras panned through the star-studded audience and stopped at Emily Blunts and John Krasinskis table for Mullally to crack a few jokes. In the background, Chalamet, who was nominated for his supporting role in Beautiful Boy, was spotted taking some time during the proceedings to read during the show. The picture went viral as people tried to guess what the young actor found so diverting while surrounded by some of the biggest and brightest stars in Hollywood at one of the seasons biggest awards shows. The Brief Newsletter Sign up to receive the top stories you need to know right now. View Sample Sign Up Now Whatever he was reading (People claims it was just the award shows oversized program) it certainly made some audience members feel a kinship with the young actor as he performed a very relatable act in a very un-relatable situation. While Chalamet ultimately lost the SAG Award for outstanding performance by a male actor in a supporting role to Mahershala Ali for Green Book, he won the internetsand every bookwormsheart. Contact us at [email protected]. | http://time.com/5514472/timothee-chalamet-was-caught-reading-at-the-sag-awards-and-everyones-got-a-whole-theory-about-it/ |
Why cant appliances work forever, like they used to? | I call it Twilight of the Appliance Gods. It can come upon anyone at any time in domestic life. But lets say at some point its a particularly inconvenient baby boomer phenomenon. One by one our relatively high-end kitchen appliances have begun sputtering to a halt. Come on guys, its only been 15 years! Everyone wants stainless steel appliances, Judith Timson just wants ones that work and last. ( Design Recipes / TNS ) Alas, it doesnt work that way. My esteemed Star colleague, Ellen Roseman, wise in the way of consumerism, reminds me she has been banging that drum for years, about the short working life youre lucky to get ten years--of glammed up modern appliances, as opposed to the plain white or god forbid avocado green workhorses of old that seemed to go on for 30 years or more. I call those appliances the greatest generation. But they werent energy efficient and they were boring. These are modern times. We worship our appliances. Our appliances are us--the design, the look, the brand name, and yes, when they work properly, the gorgeous efficiency of them. Even if some of us seldom use them. Which has never been the case for me, but I do recall, when renovating, being shown a ridiculously overpriced kitchen in a showroom as the sales associate asked: And would you be cooking in it? Article Continued Below I have always managed to turn out pretty great meals. I still do. So if Ive gotten 15 years out of anything with digital bells and whistles never had an icemaker, thank heavenand sleek stainless steel exteriors, Im probably doing better than many consumers. I had the best luck with my dishwasher, which, when it was on warranty and needed servicing, came with a theatrically sombre technician who would arrive at my door with a red briefcase and red indoor booties to match. I have since taken it apart myself and cleaned it, and now I simply dont let anyone else touch itever. This appliance has behaved admirably and nobly. It is living on borrowed time. Its the only one, a la Marie Kondo, I would ever want to thank for its impeccable service. But heres the problem. All dying appliances are cruelly reinforcing a rueful baby boomer lesson that I hadnt quite foreseen: If you insist on lingering in your family home instead of downsizing to a condo, you will eventually have to replace every single one of them. By my count three times: once when you moved in-a few decades ago, once if you renovated, and once if you stay too long. Thats the cost of at least one university tuition in Canada. Its no wonder my husband and I tried ignoring our appliances frailties for a while, resisting the impertinent reality of a gas range that had apparently decided to work part-time. Article Continued Below I never stopped hoping that the oven would see the error of its ways and get back to full production. The burners were perfect after all. Last summer, with a barbecue, I hardly missed my oven. But now, deep into comfort food season, I need it to work. Theres a three-hour braised short rib stew I make every winterand yes, I know about instapots. I just dont want one. Sometimes I wonder whether my appliances talk to each other, even though they are not the same brand. That above the range microwave must have whispered slyly to the stove, dont let her talk you into staying, were outta here. Meanwhile, we still need to eat and drink, all of which requires working appliances. I called in a repair person who convinced me my stove needed a new igniter. An hour later we found out it did not. He tried to sell me on a second repair job that would bring the total bill for fixing this old stove to more than $500. Probably not worth it. I pressed pause. During boxing week I tried to motivate myself to find a new gas range and microwave, but I believe that just as there are biological urges, there are also age related appliance urges. There comes a time when even the research annoys you, when you just stop worshipping or even noticing anyones appliances. You just want them to work. On a recent stay in Paris to visit family, I had another appliance epiphany. I was in a rental apartment, where everything was much more compactand of course did double duty. Ovens become microwaves. Washer dryers are a single machine with one function less effective. (Thats why they have drying racks everywhere.) We couldnt get anything to work at first. It was maddening. One dinner required the consultation of the very genial man on the front desk, who said a little wistfully--our dinner smelled delicious. I realized then I was extremely weary of talking about, learning about, worrying about and even arguing about kitchen appliances. They should just go on forever. Face it, we are all looking for really extended warranties. And not just for our appliances. Judith Timson is a Toronto-based writer and a freelance contributing columnist for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @judithtimson | https://www.thestar.com/life/opinion/2019/01/28/why-cant-appliances-work-forever-like-they-used-to.html |
Is Sebastian Giovinco on verge of leaving Toronto FC? | Amidst reports that a transfer was in the works, star striker Sebastian Giovinco left Toronto FCs California training camp on Monday. But a club spokesman said the absence was health-related. Toronto FC forward Sebastian Giovinco, seen here celebrating a goal that was eventually called back in an April, 2015 game against Chicago, may have played his last game for the Reds. ( Richard Lautens / Toronto Star file photo ) The TFC representative said the agent for the Italian international, who turned 32 on Saturday, asked to take Giovinco to a doctor in Los Angeles to evaluate some leg tension he's been experiencing. The club said Giovinco was expected back with the team Monday afternoon. TFC is training at the University of California, Irvine. Share your thoughts Article Continued Below Giovinco, a former MLS MVP who was Major League Soccers highest-paid player last season at $7.115 million (U.S.), is in the final year of his contract with Toronto. Read more: Altidore, Giovinco return to TFC duty with future cloudy Toronto FC hires Ali Curtis as GM Giovinco has consistently said he wanted to stay in Toronto but made it clear he wanted to get his future sorted out as soon as possible. I try to honour my contract, the Italian told reporters in English at the first media availability at training camp in Toronto this month. Article Continued Below We'll see what happens. I want to stay here but I hear something already this season (that) somebody wants to offer me to another team. ' He declined further comment on the offer, which he called serious talk. The club responded later in the day saying it had not received any offers for Giovinco. New GM Ali Curtis and the Toronto braintrust have to decide whether it is worth bringing Giovinco back and whether it can be done at a price that suits them or whether it is time to cash in on the Italian knowing he can leave for free when his contract expires. Money has not been an issue in the past with deep-pocketed Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment. For his part, Giovinco believes he has another six years playing ahead of him. At the moment, Toronto's forward ranks are thin beyond Giovinco and fellow designated player Jozy Altidore, whose contract also expires at the end of the 2019 season. The only other forwards under contract are 19-year-old Ayo Akinola and 22-year-olds Jon Bakero and Jordan Hamilton. Toronto has already lost Spanish playmaker Victor Vazquez to Qatars Al-Arabi SC in an eventful pre-season. Dutch international Gregory van der Wiel was sent home after an altercation with coach Greg Vanney and defender Nick Hagglund was traded to FC Cincinnati. Toronto does hold first position in the MLS allocation order, setting the stage for a player acquisition. MLS uses the allocation process as its way of acquiring select U.S. internationals, elite youth U.S. internationals or former MLS players returning to the league after joining a non-MLS club for a transfer fee greater than $500,000. Toronto used it to acquire former MLS defender of the year Laurent Ciman after he left France's Dijon. But Giovinco will be near impossible to replace. In four seasons with Toronto, Giovinco has 68 goals and 52 assists in 114 regular-season games (111 starts). He won MVP honours in his debut 2015 season, when he was directly involved in 65 per cent of Toronto's 58 goals with 22 goals and 16 assists. TFC made the playoffs for the first time that year, reached the MLS Cup final in 2016 and won it all in 2017, capturing the MLS championship, Supporters' Shield and Canadian Championship. At his best, Giovinco terrorized bigger defenders whose only resort was often to body him to the ground. And if they did that near goal, he could make them pay with a deadly set piece. Last season, he had 13 goals and 15 assists in 28 games as Toronto suffered through a down year, failing to even make the playoffs with a 10-18-6 record, sparking talk of a rebuild. Read more about: | https://www.thestar.com/sports/tfc/2019/01/28/is-sebastian-giovinco-on-the-verge-of-leaving-toronto-fc.html |
How Are January's Market Signs Playing Out This Year? | No month has more stock-market lore associated with it than January. Yes, October is known as the haunt of crashes. But January is known for several things, including the January effect and the January barometer. The so-called January effect is really a confluence of three effects: Most stocks tend to do well in the first month of the year, perhaps because companies and government bodies are infusing their pension plans with new money. Last years losers tend to revive in January, a phenomenon known as the January Rebound or January Bounce. Small stocks tend to do well as the new year begins. Investors also keep an eye on the January barometer, which posits that market action in January predicts the direction of the market for the full year. January Rally The overall market is indeed doing well, after enduring a rough fourth quarter that saw the Standard & Poors 500 Index fall a sickening 13.5% (even after taking dividends into account). Through January 25, the S&P 500 had climbed 6.4% for the month. This advance came despite a partial shutdown of the U.S. government, which is causing hardships for government workers and travelers. The market is also watching U.S.-China trade talks, which remain unresolved with conflicting accounts of how much progress is being made. I figure that much of the gain so far this year is due to companies putting new money into 401(k) plans and traditional pension plans. Employees typically have the option of investing some or all of that money in the stock market. January Bounce The dogs of the previous year often bark happily in January. This happens not only in the U.S. but in several other countries, and its a tax-driven phenomenon. Toward the end of the year, stocks with declines get kicked while theyre down, as investors sell to harvest tax losses. In the process, some become undervalued, and therefore ripe for a January rebound. In my December 26 column, I mentioned five stocks that had done especially poorly in 2018. They were Coty (COTY), General Electric (GE), Mohawk Industries (MHK), L Brands (LB) and Perrigo (PRGO). This year through January 25, General Electric is up 21%, Perrigo 18%, Coty 11%, Mohawk 9% and L Brands 8%. So, the January Bounce is alive and well. A little study I did in December suggests not to count on it. I looked at the five worst performers in the S&P 500 in the years 2013-2017, and checked how they did the following year. Only 44% of those stocks advanced for the full year. These scarlet letter stocks were often extreme performers in the following year--for better or for worse. In my judgment, Mohawk and L Brands offer pretty good chances for a full-year gain in 2019. Small Stocks Im fond of smaller-capitalization stocks, and have suffered in the past few years as big stocks beat small ones. So far this year, small stocks are having a festival, up 10% (as measured by the Russell 2000 Index) compared to 6.4% for their larger brethren in the S&P 500. I hope it lasts. The Barometer Remember the old saying As Maine goes, so goes the nation? These days it should probably be Ohio, but be that as it may. Similarly, in the stock market, many people believe that As January goes, so goes the year. That is the January barometer, a concept popularized by the market pundit Yale Hirsch. Since January is part of the year it is supposed to predict, I think the interesting question is how well January predicts the next 11 months. On that basis, I studied returns for 69 years from 1950 through 2018. The January barometer has been correct 68% of the time. By comparison, a nave model that always predicts the market will rise has been right 78% of the time. One year ago, the January barometer was pointing to a gain in stocks for the year 2018. I said, Since we are having a strong January now, it would be pleasant to believe that the January Barometer is a reliable instrument. But its not. Enjoy your January gains, investors, I wrote. Just dont think that they predict whats coming, one way or the other. As it turned out, the S&P 500 was down 4.38% for the year. Lets hope this Januarys gain presages a rip-roaring year. For the record, my prediction for 2019 is a gain of about 9%, with a lot of ups and downs along the way. Disclosure: I dont own the stocks mentioned in todays column, personally or for clients. ---- John Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments LLC and a syndicated columnist. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at [email protected]. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndorfman/2019/01/28/how-are-januarys-market-signs-playing-out-this-year/ |
Is it realistic to save money after college? | Experts say that you should aim to save 25 percent of your gross pay by your early twenties and the equivalent of your annual salary by your thirties. But many millennials have a balance of $0 in their savings accounts. On the other side of the spectrum, one in six millennials already has $100,000 saved. With such a large disparity in saving habits, many wonder where financial education is missing the mark. PERSPECTIVES Despite high hopes for their financial futures, most millennials aren't taking steps to get there. CNBC's Kathleen Elkins reports: A 2017 GoBankingRates survey found that most "young millennials" -- which GBR defines as those between 18 and 24 years old -- had less than $1,000 in their savings accounts. Nearly half had nothing saved at all. The number of millennials with $0 in savings is rising. According to Elkins, 31 percent had zero saved, compared to 46 percent in 2017. A survey from LendEDU reports that 49 percent of millennials spend more on eating out than they do on saving for retirement, and 27 percent spend more on coffee alone. It is up to interpretation whether this is due to lower-income jobs and the high prices of socializing, or if it's simply a lack of financial education. Either way, when young professionals enter the workforce, many are unable to put aside money for savings. A growing percentage of millennials have absolutely nothing saved But for some millennials, the system isn't that hard to figure out. According to a Bank of America survey, 16 percent of millennials have over $100,000 saved, and 47 percent have more than $15,000 saved. There's bound to be a portion of each generation who misses the mark when it comes to savings, and according to Bank of America, millennials seem to be in-line with the rest. Millennials are putting aside a bigger part of their income for retirement than the next oldest generation https://t.co/4KpJv8jonn -- Luke Lally (@Luke_Lally) January 25, 2019 70 percent of college students graduate with student loan debt. According to CNBC's Abigail Hess, over 44 million Americans hold nearly $1.5 trillion in student debt. The average debt of a recent grad is now enough to put a down payment on a house or to buy a car in-full. With this in mind, it's hardly realistic to expect college graduates to set aside money for loans and for savings. We're living in a world where millennials regularly sell their plasma for money, after all. 12 Common Money Mistakes New College Graduates Make Every generation has new circumstances set up against them and it takes time to navigate a solution. Millennials have different economic conditions to deal with, and college graduates have their own set of obstacles. Regardless, it's still reasonable for most college grads to set money aside, even if it's not much. The first step is creating a budget. The Simple Dollar's Ilona Abramova spoke with 23-year-old Ian, who advised: "I figure out exactly what my actual monthly income was, subtract my rent plus utilities, credit card payments, $60 a week for groceries, and about 20% for savings. Then I divide by both 4 and 31 to get a daily and weekly allotment," he says. "I try to consistently stay under my daily allotment during the week, so that I can spend more on weekends. If I find myself running low or going over, or am saving for something in particular (like a PlayStation 4, currently) I will try to take on extra shifts to raise the necessary funds." Abramova also suggests skipping the small things: Don't order guac at Chipotle, shower at the gym and turn your lights off when you leave the house. Small habits can make a long-term difference in how much money you spend month-to-month. 10 Ways Millennials Are Able to Save Money The Tylt is focused on debates and conversations around news, current events and pop culture. We provide our community with the opportunity to share their opinions and vote on topics that matter most to them. We actively engage the community and present meaningful data on the debates and conversations as they progress. The Tylt is a place where your opinion counts, literally. The Tylt is an Advance Local Media, LLC property. Join us on Twitter @TheTylt, on Instagram @TheTylt or on Facebook, we'd love to hear what you have to say. | https://www.nola.com/interact/2019/01/is_it_realistic_to_save_money.html |
Can PayPal Continue Its Growth Streak When It Reports Earnings? | PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) was among the companies that actually came out ahead in 2018 after the late-year correction pummeled most equities. The stock had gained as much as 26% before settling for a 14% return for the year -- still much better than the 6% loss of the S&P 500. The company's market-beating returns were spurred on by a streak of better-than-expected quarterly reports where PayPal exceeded expectations and raised its full-year guidance. PayPal will have another opportunity to impress investors when it reports the results of its fourth quarter after market close on Wednesday, Jan. 30. Let's take a look at the previous quarter and the company's guidance to see if it provides an insight into what shareholders can expect when PayPal reports earnings. The PayPal logo on an opaque surface in front of the company headquarters. More Image source: PayPal. Another impressive quarter For the third quarter, PayPal reported revenue of $3.68 billion, an increase of 14% year over year. Improving operating margins resulted in more money dropping to the bottom line, as net income of $436 million grew by 15% and earnings per share of $0.36 climbed 16%, both compared to the prior-year quarter. Revenue and profitability exceeded both analysts' consensus estimates and the high end of PayPal's forecast. The company also said it had completed the sale of its U.S. consumer credit receivables to Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF), which negatively impacted revenue growth by about 7%. If you add that to the reported top-line increase, revenue would have grown about 21% year over year, much closer to the 24% and 23% increases PayPal achieved in the first and second quarters, respectively. Other measures confirmed the company's ongoing success. Net active customers climbed by 7.7 million, up 18% year over year, bringing its total active customer base to 224 million. Existing customers were using the platform more often, as payment transactions per account grew to 36 in the trailing 12 months, up 9% compared to the prior-year period. The total number of payment transactions soared to 2.3 billion, up 28% year over year. PayPal continued to roll additional capabilities into its business after completing the acquisition of iZettle, which expands the company's international markets in Europe and Latin America, and Hyperwallet, which distributes payments between online buyers and sellers. Beat and raise For the third time in as many quarters, PayPal increased guidance after exceeding its forecast. For the fourth quarter, PayPal is guiding for revenue in a range of $4.195 billion to $4.275 billion, which would represent growth of between 12% and 14%. This also includes a 7% adjustment -- similar to last quarter -- related to the sale of receivables to Synchrony Financial. PayPal is expecting adjusted earnings per share in a range of $0.65 to $0.67. We don't want to get caught up in Wall Street's quarter-to-quarter mindset, but understanding the Street's expectations can provide context and insight into investor sentiment. Analysts' consensus estimates are both coming in near the top of PayPal's guidance, calling for revenue of $4.24 billion and earnings per share of $0.67. Investors have high expectations going into PayPal's quarterly report. The stock has climbed more than 12% so far this year, nearly double the gain of the S&P 500 as of this writing. With management's history of under promising and over delivering, PayPal's guidance was likely conservative. I don't see any reason to believe that the company won't continue to deliver. More From The Motley Fool Danny Vena owns shares of PayPal Holdings. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends PayPal Holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. | https://news.yahoo.com/paypal-continue-growth-streak-reports-170000647.html |
Will The Fed's Reverse-QE Crash The Markets? | The markets have had a nice rally since the pit of the correction in December. As a doomster calling this slump for most of last year my premise has been that reverse-QE, or QT (quantitative tightening) as it is known, will do the exact opposite to QE, which is to deflate the stock bubble that has formed. If you can look at the Nasdaq chart and not see a classic stock bubble then you can stop reading now. Bubbles can always be steeper and go higher but they are created by, and need, a unique driving mechanism which in this case was QE. When the driver breaks the bubble dies: It is the QT process that is driving this bear market. It is hitting real estate, its chopping down growth in emerging economies and now everywhere, it is chilling the carry trades responsible for pushing up asset values. Its effects are leveraged and compounding. QT is meant to run on autopilot at $50 billion a month, but there is good news. Since the almost crash of December QT has slowed dramatically. Last December established that a sideways market will be hard to maintain and it would seem that QT at full blast is more than the stock markets can support. Too much QT will crash the markets. That will change with circumstances but it seems $50 billionn is close or beyond that level. A market trend is emerging, which is bearish and could become established as the long term market tendency. The current diagonal downward direction is unlikely to be sustainable because people will start dashing for the exit if they feel the market is going to fall all year to below 20,000, causing a crash. From my perspective, if the market can go up from here the chances of a crash diminish, but if we get a fall then the chances of a crash go up dramatically. Right now the crash outcome is more likely by far than a range bound sideways market. As such Im positioned for a crash. I would say that was just fine, but politically its seen by many segments as a really bad thing. I have felt for a long time that there is not enough money supply in the system to feed the new world of ever-increasing technological leverage brought by technology. If there is not enough money you will get Asian-style deflation. In the current QT environment money is being sucked out of the system by being immobilized into instruments less liquid than previously held and far from cash. This is probably a bad thing and if it continues it will leave its mark as such. The good news is that if this idea is correct, there is plenty of room economically to change direction and for the Fed to stop shrinking its balance sheet. Whether this will happen is unanswered and until further notice QT will remain the stock markets driver until it ends. Like "there is no news only Trump," "there is no market only QT." Ironically the political right wants to audit the Fed, shut the Fed and are definitely keen to have the Fed unwind its post global financial crisis balance sheet. Back on planet earth QT and the crash it will likely spark is one of the few tools available to seriously crimp President Trumps re-election prospects. This makes the trend chart particularly interesting. Clem Chambers is the CEO of private investors Web site ADVFN.com and author of Be Rich, The Game in Wall Street and Trading Cryptocurrencies: A Beginners Guide. In November 2018, Chambers won Journalist of the Year in the Business Market Commentary category in the State Street U.K. Institutional Press Awards. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2019/01/28/will-the-feds-reverse-qe-crash-the-markets/ |
Can Technology Realistically Replace Teachers? | originally appeared on Quora: the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world. Answer by Geoff Stead, Chief Product Officer at Babbel, on Quora: If teachers can be replaced by technology, maybe they deserve to be! Seriously though, technology is no single thing. Its a vast and evolving set of tools, some of which can offer significant support to both learners and teachers, and some of which are of no help at all. As tech-educators, part of our role is to figure out what works, and how to merge it into learning and teaching. For most of Babbels learners, technology has already replaced the teacher. Our learners tend to be studying a language in their own time, outside of school. They are learning for social or work related reasons. In this case our app is able to reach people who cannot reach a classroom. But I wouldnt claim that technology is the only solution. My perfect language learning scenario would be a combination of both technology and humans, which would shift and evolve as your language skills progressed. The blending of digital tools with skilled teachers is already transforming learning and teaching for millions around the world, whether it is free access to high quality digital resources (OER, MOOCs), or optimizing the time spent with a teacher to focus on active learning, rather than passive knowledge transmission (flipped classrooms, action based learning). This question originally appeared on Quora - the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world. You can follow Quora on Twitter, Facebook, and Google+. More questions: | https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2019/01/28/can-technology-realistically-replace-teachers/ |
What is a normal financial situation for millennials? | Millennials entered adulthood at a time of historically low interest rates, soaring house prices, stiff tuition cost increases and a job market where temporary work without benefits or pensions is common. With all this disruption, its difficult to know what a normal debt load, a normal mortgage balance and a normal amount of savings is if youre a young adult. A poll this week on debt and savings by Angus Reid Institute in partnership with The Globe and Mail offers some answers. A total of 1,500 people were surveyed in the fall, 478 of them aged 18 to 37 and thus classifiable as millennials. Story continues below advertisement The poll results show that its not unusual for todays young adults to have no savings. Roughly 60 per cent of millennials aged 18 to 37 described the amount they have saved as not much or none. Somewhere between zero and $25,000. A little more than 40 per cent of people from 18 to 37 were in that range. Debt is certainly normal for millennials. Only 20 per cent in the 26-37 bracket were debt-free, compared to 31 per cent aged 18 to 25. These debt numbers include credit card balances and student and other loans, but not mortgages. A normal millennial debt load seems to be $25,000 or less thats what roughly 45 per cent of millennials aged 18 to 37 reported. But 9 per cent of people aged 26 to 37 reported owing $50,000 to $100,000, and 4 per cent owed between $100,000 and $150,000. Rising house prices in some cities have made it increasingly tough for millennials to get into the real estate market, but the poll results show a surprisingly strong number of owners. In the 26-37 bracket, 42 per cent owned their current residence. Forty-four per cent of millennial homeowners in that age group had help financial help from their parents or other family in buying a home. Clearly getting help with a down payment is very normal. A typical level of home equity is tough to pin down in the millennial demographic. Forty per cent of those aged 26 to 37 said they have less than $250,000 in equity in their homes, while 39 per cent said they were between $250,000 and $500,000. Either these millennials got help with down payments from parents or they bought well before the recent peak in house prices in some cities. Just more than half of 26- to 37-year-old home owners reported mortgage debt of less than $250,000. Another 25 per cent reported a mortgage balance between $250,000 and $500,000, and 14 per cent were between $500,000 and $750,000. A fortunate 9 per cent did not have a mortgage. The national average resale house price was $472,280 at the end of last year, while Toronto and Vancouver came in at $764,200 and $1-million, respectively. Lets say a normal level of mortgage debt in cities with below-average prices is $250,000 or less, while higher-than-average would be $500,000. In Toronto and Vancouver, up to $750,000 has to be considered normal. Story continues below advertisement Story continues below advertisement A normal retirement for millennials will be primarily funded by personal savings thats what 56 per cent of people aged 26 to 37 and 68 per cent of 18- to 25-year-olds think. Just 30 per cent in both millennial cohorts think a work pension will mainly cover their living costs in retirement, while one-third believe a government pension will be their go-to retirement vehicle. Inheritances will not be normal. Just 11 per cent of those aged 26 to 37 and 8 per cent of people aged 18 to 25 thought money from their parents would pay their way in retirement. Millennials have been slammed as the failure-to-launch generation, but thats not the story told by the Angus Reid numbers. Overall, they suggest that millennials most likely have debt, but not a crushing amount. Many have at least a modest start on saving. In a difficult housing market, close to half of 26- to 37-year-olds own a home. Whether theyre normal or not, all millennials have one overarching advantage in achieving financial success time. A lot can be fixed in the 30 or 40 years until millennials retire. Stay informed about your money. We have a newsletter from personal finance columnist Rob Carrick. Sign up today. | https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/gen-y-money/article-what-is-a-normal-financial-situation-for-millennials/ |
Will Decaying Consumer Confidence Spell Trouble For The Economy? | Right now, it might be said that the current economy is as good as it gets. It will moderate or roll over, and then things will get better. In fact, this scenario has been playing out for some time. A good place to start is with the U.S. consumer. Consumers feel good about the current economy When you look at the absolute level of consumer confidence, you can see that it has turned down recently. But it is still at levels above what we saw in the mid-2000s and close to the levels of the mid- to late 1990s. On an absolute basis, people clearly still feel very good about the economy. The recent pullback is likely just noise, as we have seen multiple times before in this recovery. Arguably, much of this drop is due to the recent stock market pullback (which is fading) and the government shutdown. As such, confidence is likely to bounce back once more. This is the argument for one more round of things can keep getting better. Even when we look at the year-on-year changes, we still see that confidence is actually up over the prior year, keeping it well out of the risk zone. Again, if confidence bounces back after the shutdown is resolved, we could see the annual change tick up again, taking it even further from the risk zone. Given the gap between where we are and where risks rise, we likely have quite a bit of time before confidence decays that much. In other words, nothing to worry about for some time to come. This same case remains true when you look at the headline index and, indeed, continues to be the base case for the economy and the markets. The underlying assumption, however, is that any changes from where we are now are likely to be slow and smooth and to take a while to show up in the data. In other words, there is an assumption that the top-line trends are good indicators of what will happen in the short term. Consumers dont feel great about the future economy When you take a deeper look, though, you can see an increasing disconnect between how people feel about the present and how they feel about the future. Present conditions (dark blue line in the chart below) are indeed very strong. They have consistently climbed at a steady rate since 2010 to well above where they peaked in the 2000s and close to the late 1990s record levels. People feel extremely good about where they are right now, economically. The present-conditions numbers are consistent with the headline numbers and lead to the same conclusions. But expectations about the future (light blue line) are not nearly as positive. They topped in early 2017 and have been stable overall since then. They are not badpeople feel good about the future but not greatand are at the levels of the mid-2000s and somewhat below the late 1990s. More significant, we have not seen the sustained growth that the present-situation index shows. Also worth noting is that the recent decline shows up here and not in the present-situation index, suggesting that the recent turbulence may be damaging confidence in the future and raising the risk that a decline in the present-situation index might be next. One way to quantify that risk is to look at the gap between present conditions and expectations. The larger the gap, the greater the potential downward pressure on the headline index. We can see below that the gap right now is much greater than it was in the mid-2000s and is approaching the level of 20002001. Based on this gap, the potential risk for a fast and material decline in confidence, potentially to a danger zone level, is real and might happen faster than we now expect. In fact, if you look at the past 40 years, that is exactly what has happened. A big gap between expectations and present conditions has usually led to a decline in consumer confidence in the next six months, which is much sooner than the headline indicators would suggest. Foundation of the real economy Looking at this data, the risks to confidence are both more significant and potentially much closer than other data would suggest. Not at all. As I discussed earlier, there is a real chance we get another bounce up as some of the current concerns resolve. If they dont, though, we need to be prepared for the data to decay faster than we might have thought. Consumer confidence is a foundation not only of the real economy but also of financial markets. As such, it now needs to be monitored closely. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradmcmillan/2019/01/28/will-decaying-consumer-confidence-spell-trouble-for-the-economy/ |
What Makes For A Good Social Life In Retirement? | In a previous article I talked about how early retirees can have a hard time staying socially connected. When you retire young, most of the people in your social circle are still working. And so you run the risk of spending too much time alone. But social isolation is also an issue for those retiring at the conventional age. In fact, maintaining a social life gets harder with age. Little by little the ones we were close to pass away or move away, and when we leave our job we lose a broad network of friends and acquaintances. As our social pool evaporates, filling it back up is a problem, because it's either too hard or we're not motivated enough to meet new people. Difficult as it may be, it should be pointed out that staying socially connected is essential to one's well-being. A good social life... Provides a sense a belonging that feeds our personal identities and validates our thoughts and actions. Adds personal meaning and value to our lives, strengthening our self-worth and confidence. Offers social events that give us routines and schedules, adding structure and purpose to daily living. Is a source of emotional support, making it easier to handle problems and keep stress levels in check. On the negative side, social isolation is potentially as high a health risk factor as obesity and smoking 15 cigarettes a day. Our identity can feel threatened and our self-esteem can be weakened, and we run a higher risk of depression. There are also physical consequences. Those who feel socially disconnected... Have a higher risk of high blood pressure, coronary disease and stroke Have a faster breakdown of cognitive skills and greater likelihood of suffering dementia because their minds are less active. Have greater decline of functional skills, such as walking or climbing stairs. Suffer from chronic stress, the health consequences of which are debilitating. Have a weakened immune system because white blood cells remain immature and ineffective. So, there's not much choice but to work at staying socially active. For sure, it's the number of people we interact with and the amount of time we dedicate to them. But it's also about diversity -- the broader and more diverse ones social circle, the better. That's how you get exposed to new ideas, different ways of thinking, and a greater variety of activities, and that's what keeps your mind active. Here's one mistake to avoid -- focusing too much attention on family members. Certainly, hanging out with the grand kiddies has it's value, but it's not a good idea to rely on family exclusively. Your childrens priorities are about building their lives, raising families, and working, things that aren't relevant to your stage of life. You shouldn't ignore your kids, but avoid becoming overly dependent on them. What's important is balance a social life that includes equal parts family and friends. We all know that making new friends is no easy task. But that can't be an excuse -- you need the health benefits. One has to commit time each day to seek out ways and places to meet people. Here are some ideas that might help you get there... Set up regular play dates with your current friends and acquaintances and rekindle old relationships from your past. Join clubs and senior organizations or start your own club. You might try setting it up on a theme basis, e.g., dining, wine tasting, golf, etc. -- that's a way to spend time with people who share your interests. Become a volunteer or a mentor. Take a class or two at your local college, library, or community center. Consider taking a job outside the home, specifically for the social benefits. So, if youre not sure whether your social life is good enough, it probably isnt and you need to fix that. Do it for your health, if not for the sheer enjoyment. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/robpascale/2019/01/28/staying-socially-connected/ |
Will Italian director detour to Hibbing for Bob Dylan research? | Bob Dylan's classic "Blood on the Tracks" is in the inspiration for an upcoming film. Minnesota Film and TV Board hopes so, but Minnesota often loses projects to Canada or states with bigger tax incentives, so it's no sure thing that they can lure director Luca Guadagnino ("Call Me By Your Name") here to film "Blood on the Tracks." Guadagnino, who is in town Friday for a Walker Art Center conversation about his recent films, which also include "I Am Love" and "Suspiria," has said "Blood on the Tracks" is inspired by the album the Hibbing native wrote and recorded during the breakup of his marriage to Sara Dylan. Chloe Grace Moretz is reportedly set to star and Minnesota Film and TV executive director Melodie Bahan says they'd love to host it. "We are doing everything we can to convince them to shoot it in Minnesota," says Bahan, who adds that there have been no official location scouts but that the board has sent Guadagnino photos of the Iron Range to tempt him to the Land of 10,000 Lakes. | http://www.startribune.com/will-italian-director-detour-to-hibbing-for-bob-dylan-research/504978032/ |
Do We Have More to Fear From Big Data Than From Big Brother? | Davey Winders coverage and concern for how Privacy is at risk with the under-the-hood integration of social media giants is right on the money. When massive, super-aggregation platforms like WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook Messenger come together, the pool of data and inferals that can be made as a result are vital to us all. Today is also National Privacy day in the UK, and given this recent integration news, it makes sense to unpack this a little now and not in a few years when its too late. Right off the bat, lets all remember that Big Data isnt just a marketing term. It gets bandied about and abused a lot, sure, but real Big Data occurs when the data is of sufficient size that it can generate new data. Put another way, its not enough to just say youre PII (Personally Identifiable Information) is safe because we didnt put any of it into the data structure because a Big Data environment can actually create PII. GDPR has created, a new, broader set of definitions of what is or isnt PII; and its pushing us to do our homework more diligently in security and privacy disciplines. However, its possible that the leak of non-PII information could cause identity compromise too. That means our definitions of privacy arent good enough if they are all about PII. As I discuss in this article, its critical that we have a core value of not making data about any of us easier to get in non-controlled ways, non-correctable ways or in ways that we dont intend. The tricky part is that occasionally we need to make some access easier. For example, in law enforcement use cases or in some rich data ecosystems, such as a research project to fight cancer. By-and-large, though, we want to avoid further eroding privacy and not make it easier to get access to our data by any actions or activities. Back to the news of under-the-hood integration. Its abundantly clear why Facebook wants to merge their social media applications and data structures. If data is the oil of the 21st century, and if bigger data has a Metcalfes Law corollary where the bigger the data structure the more valuable all the data becomes, then merging these creates massive new financial opportunities and value. Unlike oil in the 20th century, the data magnates of the 21st century need to amass bigger, more real-time data super-aggregations to better understand us individually and collectively for fun and profit. What we have here is an announcement of intent, clear and unequivocal, with no language around Privacy. In a few years, we might even see this sort of move as creating trusts or monopolies; and I suspect everyone sitting on an aspiring Giant Data set knows those days are coming. Facebook is smart to move here rather than continue to keep things at arms length because it will be extremely difficult to separate the intentionally conjoined applications without killing any of them once the under-the-hood is complete. In other words, its easier to fight anti-monopoly activity while sitting on a bigger data pile than it is sitting on a smaller data pile. To date, most companies and applications have worked across company lines and to some degree through each others APIs. This has meant that sins committed across these inter-company boundaries have been ignored. But with this under-the-hood, de facto merging of systems, the race is on to be the biggest data super-aggregator possible. The gun has sounded to start the race here. As an old boss of mine used to tell me, you cant tie two drunks together and expect them to walk a straight line. If Privacy was not on the minds of these three drunks from this most recent announcement and wasnt even attached to the announcement, it isnt suddenly going to be attached to the new Giant Data structure at the end. If we collectively care about Privacy, now is the time for anti-trust and oversight around data super-aggregators, much as we all loathe regulatory options. And at some point, we need to not only avoid monopolistic behavior but to actually forward and advance new and emerging rights that we should all have in a digital economy. As with most things, architecting early is easier than bolting features on artificially and messily later. At the very least, Mr. Zuckerberg should take advantage of the situation by leaning forward with a plan for privacy and be a hero instead of later suffering the consequences. I hope he does. This gamble doesn't have to be about who crosses the finish line first and can instead be about who brought all the benefits of Big Data without the privacy damaging possibilities of unrestrained Giant Data. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/samcurry/2019/01/28/do-we-have-more-to-fear-from-big-data-than-from-big-brother/ |
Will alleged Mexican drug lord El Chapo testify in his own defense? | As federal prosecutors in Brooklyn wrap up their case against Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman this week, lawyers for the accused Mexican drug kingpin have given little indication about how they plan to counter three months of testimony by some 54 government witnesses. One option is to call Guzman to the stand in his own defense. Defense lawyers have raised the possibility of calling Guzman, 61, as a witness, but probably won't make a final decision until after the government rests its case. "We will not disclose Joaquin's plans about testifying until the time comes to inform the court," Guzman lawyer Eduardo Balarezo said in a statement, Reuters news agency reported. Guzman faces a sweeping 17-count indictment charging him with leading a criminal enterprise responsible for importing and distributing vast quantities of meth, heroin, cocaine, and other illegal drugs into the country. Isaias Valdez Rios, a former security guard, personal aide and pilot for Guzman, testified last week that the alleged Mexican drug lord personally tortured and executed enemies, including one who was buried alive. El Chapo trial hears gruesome details about cartel violence Experts say putting Guzman on the stand would be risky because it would open him up to cross-examination by prosecutors. CBS News legal analyst Rikki Klieman, a criminal defense lawyer, said she "cannot believe that these lawyers want El Chapo to testify," but can imagine a scenario where Guzman takes the stand. "If you don't want to believe that he is the head of the Sinaloa cartel, which is the first count, which is what we call the RICO count, a racketeering count," Klieman said, "I would guess that you certainly believe he was involved in the criminal enterprise." The prosecution has "done it's job," Klieman said. "I can't imagine how [the jury] will not convict him of the other counts, which is why [Guzman] might say, 'Go for broke. I have nothing to lose. I want to tell my story even if I go down in flames because at least I told it my way.'" El Chapo's lawyers have argued that Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada is the true leader of the Sinaloa Cartel and have sought to portray cooperating witnesses as unreliable opportunists willing to exaggerate their client's involvement in the drug trade in hope of more lenient sentences in their own cases. "When I was trying big conspiracy cases, particularly drug cases, I never wanted to put on a defense," said Klieman. "I always wanted to argue that the government witnesses were not worthy of belief." Guzman's lawyers have filed a motion to bring an unnamed witness who is being held in custody somewhere else to testify for the defense. Klieman said defense witnesses could offer the jury an alternative explanation of the evidence, but that strategy may have limits. "There is an instruction about one lie means you could disregard all of the testimony. So if you don't believe one fact, if you don't believe one witness, you can disregard all of the testimony of that witness, " Klieman said. Well, that's a little tough." | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joaquin-el-chapo-guzman-alleged-mexican-drug-lord-el-chapo-testify-in-his-own-defense-witness/ |
What if a new NC election board stalemates on District 9? | A new state elections board expected to be named this week could finally resolve North Carolinas disputed 9th District congressional election or push it deeper into uncharted territory. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is scheduled to appoint the new, 5-member State Board of Elections by Thursday. Its expected to schedule a hearing into allegations of election fraud in the 9th District. But from there the bipartisan board could deadlock, refusing to either certify the election of Republican Mark Harris or order a new election. That would further delay resolution of a situation that already has left 733,000 North Carolinians without representation in Congress. This situation is unprecedented, Democratic U.S. Rep. Zoe Lofgren, who chairs of the House Administration Committee, told Politico this month. Digital Access for only $0.99 For the most comprehensive local coverage, subscribe today. Harris leads Democrat Dan McCready by 905 votes in unofficial returns. But in late November the previous state board twice declined to certify the election, citing reports of absentee ballot irregularities centered in Bladen County. The board launched an investigation, which has continued even after a court dissolved the board on Dec. 28 over a separate dispute. Last week a Wake County judge refused Harris request to order the election certified, kicking it back to the elections board. Cooper has until Thursday to name three Democrats and two Republicans to a new elections board. The board could certify Harris election or order a new election. But state law requires four votes to order a new election, and three to certify Harris election. That means at least one Republican would have to join the three Democrats in calling a new election, or one Democrat would need to join the two Republicans to certify Harris. | https://www.charlotteobserver.com/latest-news/article225179510.html |
Should the Portland Trail Blazers go all in on a trade for Anthony Davis? | Anthony Davis has made it clear that he wants out of New Orleans and the MVP-Caliber big man will surely be the most coveted player on the market as the season draws closer to the 2019 NBA trade deadline with teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics said to be diligently working to pry him away from the Pelicans. Any deal for Davis likely hinges on the idea that he would re-sign with the team he is traded to, which makes teams in big markets and stocked with young players or other assets - much like the Lakers and Celtics - obvious contenders to land the versatile big man. Dont forget about the lesson the Toronto Raptors taught us. The Raptors made a gamble last summer that has paid off in a big way this season. The decision was to trade the face of their franchise in DeMar DeRozan to the San Antonio Spurs for Kawhi Leonard with no guarantees that Leonard would re-sign in Toronto. Now the Raptors are serious title contenders with a team built around Leonard and seem to have a serious case to re-sign the MVP-caliber forward this summer. Meanwhile, the Portland Trail Blazers have been praising the continuity and development of their roster as the key to this seasons success while siting at 4th place in the Western Conference. Management would like you to believe they have a serious chance at competing come playoff time, but theres no guarantee they can overcome the first-round exits that have plagued them these past two seasons. Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard has previously said publicly that the player he most wants to play alongside is Anthony Davis. Once in June of 2017 and then again in August of 2017. If he cant add Davis, or a player like Davis in the near future, the franchise may soon be in a similar position to New Orleans. It could one day be Lillard asking for a trade due to managements inability to put talent around their star guard and build the Blazers into a contender. | https://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/2019/01/should-the-portland-trail-blazers-go-all-in-on-a-trade-for-anthony-davis.html |
Is Yeti Worth Buying Yet? | After disappointing investors in November with an underwhelming third-quarter earnings report, cooler maker Yeti (NYSE: YETI) bounced back after issuing preliminary fourth-quarter information showing higher sales of coolers and drinkware and increased full-year profits. While there are indications Yeti may yet live up to its full potential, there remain troubling signs that suggest investors should proceed with caution. Man pulling Yeti cooler onto beach More Image source: Yeti. Yeti wants you to drink in its growth The biggest problem Yeti has is that it's selling more lifestyle goods, such as drinkware and accessories, than its famed coolers. Its brand appeal seems to be widening, but the underlying basis for it being in business is lagging. Yeti reported that cooler sales rose 10% in the fourth quarter to $91.2 million, while drinkware sales were up 24% to $143.5 million. For the year, cooler sales were up 6%, and drinkware was 37% higher. At $424 million, Yeti derives 56% of its revenue from things that aren't coolers, and cooler sales aren't spurring any growth. This is despite management saying last quarter it was looking for a strong performance from the division this time around. That could be because its new Tundra cooler, Yeti's first wheeled model, might not be doing as well as expected. The company had rolled it out in the third quarter more slowly than it originally expected because it wanted to build up inventory, but Yeti was looking for sales to pick up in the fourth quarter. With 6% sales growth recorded in the cooler segment, the Tundra may not have caught on as much as anticipated. While being a lifestyle brand carries some advantages, the company still needs its primary products to move. Sales have been volatile Of course, Yeti doesn't have much of a track record yet for investors to thoroughly make a determination on how its business performs over time. In the few years it's been operating, sales have been volatile across all product lines. In 2017, for example, cooler sales tumbled over 10%, while drinkware and accessories plunged over 30%. The year before that, though, cooler sales were up 51%, and drinkware had doubled. Chart of Yeti segment sales More Data source: Yeti SEC filings. Chart by author. Consumers just went through a pretty strong Christmas selling season, and Yeti sales were OK but not great. Economists are debating whether we're due for a major correction, and that could spell trouble for Yeti as it hasn't been tested in such a climate. | https://news.yahoo.com/yeti-worth-buying-yet-220600287.html |
Is It Finally Safe to Buy Western Digital for Its 5% Yield? | Shares of Western Digital (NASDAQ: WDC) rallied 8% on Jan. 25 after the disk drive maker followed up a second quarter miss with updated guidance for the third quarter. WD's revenue dropped 21% annually to $4.23 billion during the second quarter and missed estimates by $30 million. Its non-GAAP net income plunged 65% to $424 million, and its EPS declined 63% to $1.45 per share, missing expectations by a nickel. For the third quarter, WD expects its revenue to decline 24%-28% annually and for its non-GAAP EPS to fall 83%-89%, which indicates that the cyclical declines in disk drive sales and memory prices won't bottom out anytime soon. Nonetheless, WD's post-earnings rally indicates that some investors think that this hated stock -- which has been cut in half over the past 12 months -- could be bottoming out. Four HDDs. More Image source: Getty Images. WD's forward P/E of 6 and its forward dividend yield of 5% might look tempting to some bottom-fishing investors. A closer look at WD's problems WD's growth in revenue, non-GAAP earnings, and free cash flow (FCF) all deteriorated over the past year. Its guidance for the third quarter indicates that this slowdown will continue: Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Revenue 9% 8% 6% (3%) (21%) Non-GAAP EPS 72% 52% 23% (15%) (63%) Free cash flow (37%) (17%) (16%) (46%) (96%) Year-over-year growth. Source: WD quarterly reports. Two relentless headwinds are battering WD's business. First, soft demand for platter-based HDDs (hard disk drives) in the PC and enterprise markets caused its HDD revenues, which accounted for 49% of its second quarter revenue, to fall 24% annually. Second, tumbling prices for NAND (flash) memory chips caused its revenue from SSDs (solid-state drives) and memory chips, which accounted for the remaining 51% of its revenue, to decline 18%. WD significantly increased its exposure to the flash market with its acquisition of SanDisk in 2016, which initially juiced up its sales but backfired when memory prices peaked last year. Two SSDs on top of an HDD. More Image source: Getty Images. Those cyclical headwinds caused WD to lose its pricing power. As a result, the non-GAAP gross margins for its HDD and Flash units quickly deteriorated: Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 HDD 30% 33% 32% 32% 27% Flash 57% 55% 51% 34% 35% Total 43.2% 43.4% 41% 38% 31.3% Non-GAAP gross margins. Source: WD quarterly reports. WD expects its gross margin to contract to about 28% for the third quarter, which is well below its long-term gross margin target of 35%-40%. But during the conference call CEO Steve Milligan reaffirmed that target range, and stated that WD would "periodically operate below the range and periodically operate above the range" due to cyclical price changes. | https://news.yahoo.com/finally-safe-buy-western-digital-220200208.html |
How deep are cracks in Venezuelan military support for Maduro? | As most of his cohorts in the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington hastily burned documents and packed their bags last week, military attach Col. Jose Luis Silva instead became the first high-ranking officer to defect since opposition leader and head of the National Assembly, Juan Guaido, formally challenged Nicolas Maduro for the nations leadership last week. Please brothers, dont attack our people. The state gave us arms to protect our country, not to touch our equals, Silva declared in a video on Saturday, calling on Venezuelas armed forces to halt the violence against protesters and to advocate support for Guaido rather than Maduro. Guaido, with the full backing of the Trump administration, took an oath of office during a street demonstration in the capital of Caracas last week, and declared himself interim president. A number of countries who had deemed Maduro an illegitimate leader following last years allegedly sham elections have, like the U.S., chosen to recognize Guaido. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino has since deemed Silva a traitor. But while the military has so far remained the side of the Maduro regime, opposition groups say cracks are steadily surfacing. There are huge, huge consequences when it comes to what happens with the armed forces, and its a matter of getting to small Maduro ring which is essentially just nine generals, explained exiled former Venezuelan National Assembly leader, Julio Borges, who was departing Bogota, Colombia to meet with Washington officials on Monday. The plan needs to be to put a lot a lot of pressure on these most influential nine generals to break the loyalty to Maduro. That loyalty is fragile, so we can see a change (of power) happening in the near future. Another former Venezuelan intelligence official closely monitoring the situation told Fox News there have been small signs of change, such as a number of registered police and low-ranking military officers who have abandoned their posts, or refused to undertake repressive actions against protesters. Some officers and soldiers have even joined the protests themselves. Maduro is aware this is happening; and has brought in more Russian military contractors to protect Maduro, the source said, estimating that roughly 400 Russians had been brought in over the past week. Noris Argotte, a Caracas-based journalist, told Fox News on Monday of a rising level of lower-ranked officials deserting and fleeing the country to either Brazil and Colombia. But he said it was still unrealistic to assume the military will immediately abandon Maduro. Rather, it will be a very step-by-step process and it will depend on the higher ranks of officials and their willingness to accept a transition, she said. INSIDE THE VENEZUELAN PROTEST MOVEMENT: 'THIS IS OUR CHANCE!' COLOMBIAS PEACE AGREEMENT BLOODIED BY DISTRUST, DRUGS - AND THE VENEZUELAN REGIME Maduro on Sunday boasted the allegiance of the Venezuelan military, roaring to scores of uniformed soldiers who bowed before him at a base in the city of Valencia, against the backdrop of a military parade intended to be a show of force to opponents. Are you coup plotters? he chorused, to which the soldiers as portrayed on state media channels responded with a vigorous no. Maduros government has since embarked on an online publicity campaign, summed up with the tagline Always Loyal, Never a Traitor in the quest to deter others from following Silvas footsteps. Meanwhile, Guaido and his champions have been hastily handing out copies of a law newly drafted by the National Assembly pledging amnesty to those who switch their support from Maduro to the transitional government. There has been some military from lower ranks who are wanting to or trying to, turn against Maduro. But there are several problems. The first is that the top hierarchies in the military will not turn because they are the best-paid government personnel in Venezuela and have a lot of privileges and immunities by keeping their loyalty, Miguel Mandrade, an international relations analyst in the western Venezuelan city of San Cristobal noted. There are also members of non-state actors like the Colombian FARC or Hezbollah who have infiltrated the Forces, so there is a fear among the lower ranks of military personnel that repercussions of rebellion could come at them from all sides. The third major factor complicating an immediate military turn, according to several Venezuelan analysts and officials, is Cubas murky involvement in the Venezuelan armed forces. Both governments deny Cubans have infiltrated the Venezuelan military, despite what some see as obvious signs to the contrary. Venezuela established close ties with Cuba in the late 1990s, when Maduro predecessor Hugo Chavez was in power. Cuba has since invested in and propped up the Venezuelan military and intelligence wings, according to many observers. And some estimates have indicated as many as 20,000 Cubans could be in the ranks of the Venezuelan security apparatus. There are up to five hundred Cubans are in strategic positions, one Venezuelan intelligence source suggested. And perhaps most crucially, top-notch Cuban intelligence agents are said to hold key leadership positions in Venezuelan intelligence, making it much harder for the opposition to organize. Nonetheless, Guido has called on Venezuelans to continue the protests, to continue the momentum for change. After severing U.S. diplomatic ties last Wednesday, Maduro ordered the embassy must be shuttered, and all diplomats expelled by Saturday. However, the U.S. responded by stating they no longer recognize Maduro as a legitimate authority. Maduro has since extended the time frame to 30 days. Ignoring the demand with the exception of ordering the evacuation of non-essential personnel late last week amid rising tensions the State Department on Sunday said it had instead accepted Guaidos designation of exiled opposition leader Carlos Vecchio as Venezuelas top diplomatic position of Charge DAffaires to the United States. Since 2015, and as a result of the Chavez-introduced socialist policies, Venezuela has spiraled from the wealthiest nation in Latin America into one of extreme poverty and a humanitarian crisis characterized by mass hyperinflation and critical food and medical shortages prompting almost four million to flee into neighboring nations. According to Guillermo Aveledo, a political science professor at the University of Caracas, it could be taken as a sign that there is some internal stirring of discontent within the security forces given that there is a strange lack of militarization of urban territories and streets, common in a situation like this, which can either be attributed to lack of morale by soldiers, or a desire to promote chaos to hold onto power. The Amnesty Law decreed by the National assembly and confirmed by Mr. Guaido are trying to give Military officers a heroic way out if they turn against the government, but so far just a few officers have done so, with no troop support so far, he lamented. It is a possibility that the military will turn, but right now, one fails to see how the situation can play differently this time. Mass protests in 2014 and 2017 calling for Maduro to step down also failed to institute new leadership. Other activists on the ground expressed disappointment the military hadnt seized the moment, and flipped already. Of course, there are lots of them who want to turn on the government, but it is pretty difficult, noted Caracas-based filmmaker and political activist, Cesar Oporeza. Still, strangely enough, it seems to be they want to die with their boots on. Its weird, but it is happening. | https://www.foxnews.com/world/how-deep-are-the-cracks-in-venezuelas-military |
Will Apple Have the First Netflix for Gaming? | Attention Apple fanboys and gaming nerds, you might need to get ready to add another subscription service to your Rolodex. Five different sources told Cheddar on Monday that Apple has been talking to developers for months about launching a subscription service that would function like Netflix for games. However, according to Engadget, other major companies including NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Verizon, to name a few, also have their eyes on the Netflix for Gaming prize and have made some moves towards exploring what could be a very lucrative space. It makes sense that Apple might be throwing its own hat into the ring. Apple bought Texture, which has been described as a Netflix for magazines, last year. And Tim Cook has been hinting at a streaming internet video service like making content deals with Oprah Winfrey to show it really means business as well. Netflix for gaming fits in that pattern. Apple plans to launch a gaming subscription service. (Presumably iOS gaming, not console gaming like Microsoft and Google are working on. )https://t.co/j168jEgwCF Steve Kovach (@stevekovach) January 28, 2019 Although there is little information regarding how much Apples gaming service would cost, what it would include, and if it will ever happen. Cheddar reports that Apple could take on a role of publisher to distributors, meaning that it could distribute and market selected games that havent been exclusively designed by Apple. | http://fortune.com/2019/01/28/apple-subscription-gaming-service-netflix/ |
What is the polar vortex? | CLOSE Brrrr! Below-zero temperatures are expected across a quarter of the continental U.S., according to the The National Weather Service. USA TODAY Here comes the polar vortex. The polar vortex everyone's favorite wintertime whipping boy is a large area of cold air high up in the atmosphere that normally spins over the North Pole (as its name suggests). Sometimes, however, thanks to a meandering jet stream, some of the vortex can slosh down into North America, helping to funnel unspeakably cold air down here where we all live. And it's not exactly a new phenomenon either, despite how hashtag-friendly it is: The vortex has likely "existed in some form for the past 4.5 billion years," according to senior scientist Jeff Kiehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. In addition, although it's been understood by scientists for several decades and referred to in meteorological literature in the 1950s, it only entered the popular lexicon as a synonym for miserably cold winter weather five years ago. A commuter makes a sub-zero trek through Chicago on Jan. 6, 2014. That cold snap was due in part to the polar vortex, which is forecast to make another appearance later this week. (Photo: Scott Olson, Getty Images) The vortex is strongest during the winter and usually weakens or even disappears in the summer. Its position can determine what part of the USA the Arctic air will invade. It can also divide into several parts, then get back together again, like the cop in Terminator 2. Scientists report that the polar vortex appears to be wandering more often in recent years. Some scientists but not all say there may be a connection between global warming and the wandering vortex: The theory is that when weird warmth invades the Arctic, some of the cold that's supposed to stay up there including the infamous polar vortex instead sloshes down south into North America and Europe. "Warm temperatures in the Arctic cause the jet stream to take these wild swings, and when it swings farther south, that causes cold air to reach farther south," said Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at Rutgers University, who published a study on the phenomenon last year. In any event, don't fear the polar vortex. It isn't like a tornado or hurricane; it's not something you can look up and see in the sky one day; there's no freakish spinning whirlwind of ice and snow roaring down from Canada. It's just cold... very, very cold. The polar vortex, and its onslaught of bitterly cold air, is back. (Photo: AP) Read or Share this story: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/01/28/polar-vortex-what-it-and-what-does-mean-my-weather/2705415002/ | https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/01/28/polar-vortex-what-it-and-what-does-mean-my-weather/2705415002/ |
Why should taxpayers foot bill for Super Bowl security? | The National Freebie League, with inspired timing, scheduled this years Super Bowl between government shut-downs. That assures that the Department of Homeland Security will have plenty of active personnel to send to Atlanta. Had the game been held during a government shutdown, the NFL might have had to pay for its own security. That would be painful. You know what they say about NFL owners: Deep pockets, short arms. You cant ask the owners to pay for their own event. Many of them, their cash is tied up. Jerry Jones (Cowboys) and Dan Snyder (Washington) recently purchased titanic yachts. Barnacle-scrapers and deck-swabbers dont work for free. Snyder bought his boat for $100 million. It is 305 feet long and costs $389,000 for one tankful of fuel. It is the only yacht in the world with an iMax screen. Pity the league exec assigned to break the news. Mr. Snyder, we need a couple hundred thou from you for Super Bowl security. Yessir, I know your team is never involved in that game, but. . . Jones yacht cost $250 million. At 357 feet long, it would fit between the goalposts with three feet to spare. Not every team owner is that rich. Mark Davis only watercraft is the Tidy Bowl Man rowboat the Raiders keep handy for when the Coliseum floods. But all the owners are doing pretty well. Well, because the owners are champions of inclusion. They want fans to feel the pride of ownership achieved by picking up the tab, even if they dont go to the game, or even watch it. The league is looking out for you and me. Like when it directs Homeland Security to patrol the host city and arrest people selling knock-off souvenir t-shirts and caps for a fraction of the rip-off price of the genuine goods. In a Washington Post editorial, former DHS assistant secretary Juliette Kayyem proposes that the league pay for its own Super Bowl security, rather than sticking us with the tab. Apparently Kayyem thinks an iMax screen Windexes itself. Scott Ostler is a San Francisco Chronicle columnist. Email: [email protected] Twitter: @scottostler | https://www.sfchronicle.com/sports/ostler/article/Why-should-taxpayers-foot-bill-for-Super-Bowl-13568175.php |
Can Nathan Chen, Alysa Liu lead an American skating rebound? | DETROIT The present and future of American figure skating were on display at last week's national championships. Nathan Chen and Alysa Liu were captivating, but it remains to be seen how much they can help the U.S. rebound on the international stage. Chen, the reigning world champion, is rolling right along after winning a third straight title at the U.S. Figure Skating Championships. His performance was expected, but the biggest new star to emerge at this competition was the 13-year-old Liu, who became the youngest person to win an individual championship in the event's history. "She's the hope," said Tara Lipinski, who won the national title at age 14 in 1997 and was supplanted by Liu as the youngest women's champion. "Obviously, it's been many years since there's been a U.S. lady on an Olympic podium." The last time an American won an Olympic medal in women's figure skating was in 2006, when Sasha Cohen took silver. The U.S. won bronze in the team competition at each of the past two Olympics, but the Americans came up empty in the men's and women's individual events in both Pyeongchang and Sochi. In Chen, the Americans already have a high-flying star. He won the Olympic free skate last year with an unprecedented six quad jumps, and while a poor short program cost him a medal, he has three straight national titles and last year's world title to his credit at age 19. "He's pushing the sport in ways that, growing up in the sport, I could have only dreamed," said Jason Brown, who finished third over the weekend. "It's really impressive, and he definitely pushes me to push every other boundary that I can." Chen defeated Vincent Zhou by over 58 points Sunday, and right now, the main question seems to be how well Chen can balance his skating with his studies at Yale. So far, so good, it seems. "I really don't mind the training atmosphere that I'm in. I'm really lucky and really honored to have the opportunity to be able to skate at Yale," he said. "Some competitions have been really good, some competitions have not necessarily been so good under these circumstances, but ultimately, I feel like I'm improving competition to competition." Chen is skipping the Four Continents Championships in California next month but can try to defend his world title in Japan in March. Liu, meanwhile, faces a more uncertain international future. After Lipinski won at nationals in '97, she took gold at the Nagano Olympics the following year. Liu's national title came three years before the next Olympics, and under the current age restriction, she's not eligible to compete at worlds until 2022. That may be frustrating for those who want to see her compete on the biggest stage, but it could also stave off the pressure for a little while. "There are some obvious places where I can be better and (I will keep) working on those," she said. "Focusing on myself is what works for me. Just focusing on being the best version and best skater that I can be." Liu landed a rare triple axel in her short program and two more in the free skate, so it's only natural to view her as someone who can help the American women start closing the gap. "There's other countries that are producing talent that are 12- and 13-year-olds, doing quads and multiple quad jumps, and it's impossible for the U.S. ladies to technically compete with that. They're lagging so far behind," said Lipinski, now a commentator with NBC. "Now she's changing this, and I think she is setting the tone and is going to push the next generation of U.S. skaters." | http://www.startribune.com/can-nathan-chen-alysa-liu-lead-an-american-skating-rebound/504990142/ |
Can Cloud Business Continue To Drive SAP Growth? | SAP (NYSE: SAP), the German software giant, will release its 2018 fourth quarter and full year financial results on January 29, 2018. The market expects the company to post revenue in the range of $28 billion, approximately 4% growth year on year. The earnings are expected to be around $5, for the Fiscal Year 2018. The company had reported a strong third quarter with triple digit growth across C/4 HANA and S/4 HANA platforms, which drove the cloud revenue. We have a $110 price estimate for the company, which is above the current market price. View our interactive dashboard Our Outlook For SAP In 2018 and modify the key assumptions to arrive at your own price estimate for the company. SAP has had a good year on the back of the high growth in the cloud segments as the S/HANA platforms has already been adopted by 9500+, up 37% YOY. However, SAPs software business is expected to continue dragging on its top-line and bottom-line due to the shift from on-premise to cloud platform, but the company is expected to more than offset the same with high growth in the Cloud platform and Digital supply chain solutions. The company has increased their outlook three times in the year, with each quarterly result, which tells us that the company has been doing much better then the management expectations this year. Based on the fast adoption of its cloud platform, we expect SAPs cloud business to continue to drive its value in the near term as well as long term. Explore example interactive dashboards and create your own. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/01/28/can-cloud-business-continue-to-drive-sap-growth/ |
Will Higher Sales Volume Drive Raytheon's (RTN) Q4 Earnings? | Raytheon Company RTN is scheduled to release fourth quarter and 2018 results on Jan 31, before the opening bell. The company's revenues are anticipated to be driven by a consistent order inflow, which along with lower taxes are likely to benefit its earnings in the to-be-reported quarter. Last reported quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 15.98%. Let's take a closer look at the factors influencing Raytheon's quarterly results. Why a Likely Positive Earnings Surprise Our proven model shows a likely earnings beat for Raytheon this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is the case here as you will see below. Earnings ESP: Raytheon has an Earnings ESP of +1.78%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before theyre reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. Zacks Rank: Raytheon currently carries a Zacks Rank #3, which when combined with a positive ESP makes us confident of probable earnings beat. Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions. Raytheon Company Price and EPS Surprise Raytheon Company Price and EPS Surprise | Raytheon Company Quote Missile Systems: A Key Catalyst: Over the last few quarters, Raytheons Missile Systems (MS) business unit that represents almost 30% of the company's total sales continues to be one of the major revenue drivers. Keeping this trend alive, Raytheon is poised to benefit from this unit in the fourth quarter as well. In line with this, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the MS segments fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $2,479 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 13.5%. During the quarter, the MS segment successfully secured some major contracts from both the Pentagon and its overseas customers. Notably, it secured a $692.9-billion contract for the production of Sweden's Patriot Integrated Air and Missile Defense System, including spare parts, support and training along with a $434-million deal for the production of 766 AIM-9X and 160 AIM-9X Block II+ missiles. Moreover, the Romanian government signed an agreement with the U.S. Army for purchasing three additional Patriot Missiles. Such impressive order inflows should boost this units backlog, which we expect to get reflected in the to-be-reported quarterly results. Other Factors Under Consideration Increased sales volume expectation for other segments of the company has made us optimistic about Raytheons top-line growth in the fourth quarter. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $7,502 million, reflecting year-over-year improvement of 10.6%. Fourth-quarter results are expected to maintain the solid bookings trend of the first three quarters of 2018. Solid revenue growth and lower tax rate are expected to boost Raytheons bottom line in the fourth quarter. Moreover, favorable FAS/CAS Operating Adjustment and the retirement benefits non-service expenses are projected to benefit the companys earnings this time. To this end, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Raytheon's fourth-quarter earnings pegged at $2.89 reflects year-over-year surge of 42.4%. Other Stocks That Warrant a Look Here are a few more companies in the Zacks Aerospace Sector that have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter. Lockheed Martin Corp. LMT is expected to report fourth-quarter 2018 results on Jan 29. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.20% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of todays Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. General Dynamics Corp. GD is expected to report fourth-quarter 2018 results on Jan 30. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.49% and a Zacks Rank #3. Huntington Ingalls Industries HII is expected to report fourth-quarter 2018 results on Feb 14. The company has an Earnings ESP of +7.09% and a Zacks Rank #3. Our annual Top 10s have beaten the market with amazing regularity. In 2018, while the market dropped -5.2%, the portfolio scored well into double-digits overall with individual stocks rising as high as +61.5%. And from 2012-2017, while the market boomed +126.3, Zacks' Top 10s reached an even more sensational +181.9%. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report General Dynamics Corporation (GD) : Free Stock Analysis Report Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) : Free Stock Analysis Report Raytheon Company (RTN) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research | https://news.yahoo.com/higher-sales-volume-drive-raytheons-230611744.html |
What's in Store for Fortune Brands (FBHS) in Q4 Earnings? | Fortune Brands Home & Security, Inc. FBHS is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2018 results on Jan 31, after market close. The company has a dismal earnings surprise history. In the trailing four quarters, its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate once and missed thrice, the average negative earnings surprise being 4.54%. Notably, in the last reported quarter, the company posted earnings of 93 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.05 by 11.43%. Over the past six months, the companys shares have lost 25.8%, wider than 11.5% decline recorded by the industry it belongs to. Lets see how things are shaping up for this announcement. Factors to Consider Rising cost of sales and operating expenses are a major cause of concern for the company. In the first nine months of 2018, the Fortune Brands' cost of sales jumped 5.6% year over year. Material price inflation (on account of tariffs) and higher freight charges has been escalating Fortune Brands' aggregate costs, of late. The company expects tariffs to adversely impact its business by nearly $2-$3 million in the fourth quarter. Fortune Brands expects higher costs, impact of bond financing and inefficiencies existing within Security operations to weigh over its near-term profitability. Notably, due to these issues, the company has lowered its earnings view for 2018 from $3.62-$3.72 per share to $3.41-$3.49. Amid this backdrop, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the company's Cabinets segment is pegged at $624 million. The company generated $626 million in revenues a year ago. On the other hand, the consensus estimate for revenues from Plumbing segment in the to-be-reported quarter is currently pegged at $505 million, reflecting 7.7% growth year over year. However, Fortune Brands remains focused on strengthening its competency on the back of meaningful business acquisitions. In September 2018, the company successfully completed the acquisition of Fiberon, LLC. As a matter of fact, this $470 million buyout complements Fortune Brands' existing door brand Therma-Tru as well as enhances its growth opportunities in the outdoor living space. Earnings Whispers Our proven model does not conclusively show an earnings beat for Fortune Brands in the to-be-reported quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. But that is not the case here as you will see below. Earnings ESP: Fortune Brands has an Earnings ESP of -1.68% as the Most Accurate Estimate of 92 cents is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 94 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before theyre reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. Fortune Brands Home & Security, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | https://news.yahoo.com/whats-store-fortune-brands-fbhs-230211187.html |
Will Roger Stone cooperate with Mueller's Russia investigation? | Washington Roger Stone was confident Monday as he arrived in Washington for his arraignment on charges that could land him in prison for decades. Special counsel Robert Mueller charged the president's friend of 40 years and former campaign advisor Friday with seven counts of lying, obstruction and witness tampering. Over the weekend, Stone left the door open to working with investigators. "If there's wrongdoing by other people in the campaign that I know about, which I know of none, but if there is I would certainly testify honestly," he said. But in an interview with CBS News, Stone said he would not flip on President Trump. "I've been very clear about the fact that I cannot and will not implicate the president because I would have to perjure myself in some way to do so," Stone said. Extended interview: Roger Stone speaks to CBS News after arrest Stone's indictment alleges he was in contact with several Trump campaign officials about Wikileaks' release of hacked Democratic emails. Scott Frederickson, a former independent counsel, said the president should be worried. "The tantalizing question in this indictment is whether it was the president who directed the senior campaign official to be in contact with Mr. Stone about whether there was going to be more of the Russian hacked emails from the Democratic party," he said. On Monday, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders denied the president's involvement. "The more that this goes on the more and more we see that none of these things have anything to do with the president," Sanders said. Fredrickson points out that Paul Manafort also said he wouldn't cooperate with Mueller. But when faced with significant jail time, Manafort changed his tune. On Monday, acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker said the special counsel's probe was close to being completed. | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-roger-stone-cooperate-with-muellers-russia-investigation/ |
Can Nick Clegg help Facebook grow up? | Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption Nick Clegg: Facebook will do 'whatever it takes' to make the platform safer for vulnerable people When interviewed, anyone starting a new job has an advantage over colleagues who have been in post for a long time: they can plausibly say that historic mistakes weren't their fault. Sir Nick Clegg deployed this advantage to full effect today. On several issues where I was expecting to meet resistance, and therefore have to push him, he instead put his hands up and acknowledged error. On tax, he said the current system isn't working and needs to change. On the broader issue of regulation, he said that it's no longer sustainable for tech companies to say they don't like any or all regulation. These words - and the fact that he agreed to be interviewed at all - are part of a more open and conciliatory tone the company wants, through him, to adopt. Being the new boy who can soak up some of the pressure is clearly one part of his new role. Another key part is explaining Europe to Facebook, and explaining Facebook to Europe. That's why he gave his first speech in Brussels, just yards from where he used to work. Facebook is 15 on Monday. Critics argue that its impulsive behaviour, historic recklessness over privacy, and constant utopianism are that of a teenager - by turns moody and dreamy. Clegg, who acknowledges the company is in a bad place on a range of issues, is casting himself as the adult who can make this young company grow up. So much for the theory. On the awful issue of self-harm, he repeated the plan that Instagram has for addressing those images seen by Molly Russell, and striking a balance whereby those issuing a plea for help are still able to do so. It is true that Facebook has made significant moves on transparency, in letting users know who is targeting them. But the impression persists that Mark Zuckerberg's astonishing innovation has unleashed something he and his team can't control. It is in the very nature of this technology that it throws up unforeseeable threats. Tackling those we know about is just the beginning of a democratic response to this new form of power. That's the sub-plot of my interview with Sir Nick, which was done under time constraints. | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-47036000 |
Can a shift in shopping help Tesco beat the discounters? | Image copyright Tesco More than 60 years ago, Tesco introduced meat and cheese counters for the first time at its new superstore in Maldon, Essex. Today, it is getting rid of them at 90 of its UK stores. Tesco will keep meat, fish and deli counters at 700 supermarkets but while some of them will be staffed full-time, others will only be manned on a "flexible" basis. Britain's biggest supermarket chain says it is making the changes because people don't shop like they used to. Gone - or fewer - are the days of the big weekly shop. "The market is challenging and we need to continually adapt to remain competitive and respond to how customers want to shop," says Jason Tarry, chief executive of Tesco UK & Ireland. Diane Wehrle, insights director at Springboard, the retail research firm, says trends have changed from 30 or 40 years ago when people wanted to shop at big, clean, new supermarkets. "We are returning to this place where we once started from, which is that we wanted to be careful of the provenance of our food and we're more conscious about waste, so we're not shopping as we did in the 1980s and the early 1990s which was this huge once-a-week shop. "That's the inevitable, cyclical nature of retail. We came from a place where we used to have independents - the butchers and the bakers - and now we're back there because people want to go to those individual shops." People are also busier. Catherine Shuttleworth, founder and chief executive of marketing agency Savvy, which acts for a number of retailers, says: "When you're in a big supermarket you want to be in and out as soon as possible." Image copyright Getty Images Image caption People are increasingly using smaller independent shops, says Diane Wehrle "You don't want to be queuing twice," she says - once for the meat or fish counter and then for the checkout. Ms Shuttleworth also reckons that younger "millennial" shoppers with "a genuine interest" in food have helped shift shopping patterns, prompted by the growing popularity of farmers' markets and high profile chefs. The discounters At the heart of Tesco's decision, however, is cost. Group chief executive Dave Lewis said in October 2016 that he wanted to reduce costs by 1.5bn over the following three years. He has already taken 10,000 jobs out of Tesco since he joined the supermarket chain in 2014. The reduction in fish, meat and deli counters forms part of a new cost-cutting plan that will affect some 9,000 roles. And hovering over the decision is the spectre of the German discounters Aldi and Lidl. While both brands are still relative tiddlers compared to Tesco in terms of market share - Tesco commands 27.8% of the UK grocery market, Aldi has 7.4% and Lidl has 5.4% - their presence has rattled the supermarket giant enough for it to recently introduce its own discount chain called Jack's. Like Aldi and Lidl, Jack's does not have a fish, meat or deli counter - its only fresh food counter is a bakery. Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Tesco group chief executive Dave Lewis opened discount chain Jack's in September last year By following suit in Tesco stores, Tesco will reduce operating costs which will presumably mean that savings can be passed on to shoppers. But Steve Jones, managing director at negotiationexpert.co.uk, believes the company is wrong to get rid of fresh food counters. Mr Jones, who used to work at Tesco as a buyer, says: "If Tesco starts to strip out the things that make them different to Aldi and Lidl, all that is going to happen is that people are going to go to the place that's the cheapest." However, Ms Wehrle says: "If they are not receiving a return on their investment on their deli counters then it makes sense not to have them as part of their stores." And Bruno Monteyne, senior analyst for European food retailers at Bernstein, says: "Marks & Spencer, which I think has the strongest quality brand in the UK, doesn't have any counters either so there is no definition that says that if you really want to be known for quality food you need to have counters. "There are two retailers who do it really well - Waitrose is known for it and also Morrisons on different parts of the quality spectrum. There are different ways of having quality." Image copyright Getty Images Thomas Moore of Aberdeen Standard Investments believes that Tesco can use its clout to slow Aldi and Lidl's expansion. "Look at that buying power and look at Sainsbury's and Asda if they get together," he says. "Those two chains have got enough volume that they should have the best buying power. "They are trying to arrest the growth of Aldi and Lidl and they've noticed that people are shopping differently in that they are moving away from these big stores. They've got to be able to get down the cost curve so that their unit costs are lower and they can then still maintain their profit margins." Ms Wehrle, though, is unsure whether the changes at Tesco will work. "Whether or not it will make a huge difference to Tesco's competitive stance against Aldi and Lidl is something we'll have to wait and see," she says. | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47031879 |
When is World Book Day? | Getty Images World Book Day is all about...books. (No surprises there!) The aim of it is to give every child a book of their own. This year World Book Day is on Thursday 7 March. It's organised by a charity and takes place in more than 100 countries all over the world (although other countries celebrate it in April). World Book Day is the biggest celebration of its kind. The aim of it is to celebrate authors, books, illustrators and of course reading! To help kids do that, book tokens are given out at schools, including some nurseries and secondary schools. Kids who are home educated can also get the 1 tokens. Thousands of bookshops and supermarkets get involved and the tokens can be used in stores which are taking part to get a book for free (there are ten books to choose from). Around 15 million tokens are given out - that works out at one for nearly every child aged under 18 in the country. Now that's A LOT of books! There are lots of different ways to celebrate World Book Day. School's are likely to have some events planned for it, whether it's a trip to the local library, classroom displays of famous characters or activities in lessons. Lots of kids also dress up in costumes and go to school as their favourite characters. Imagine doing maths dressed as Mr Stink or science as Harry Potter! No! The main aim is to get young people to read and love books (sounds good to us!). But lots of kids also enjoy dressing up for school. Let's face it, it's not everyday you can go to lessons as Willy Wonka, Paddington Bear or Gangsta Granny. Often schools will ask pupils who come in costume to donate money to a charity, such as Book Aid International, which means books can be sent to children in other countries. It can be a lot of fun if you get to dress up in school, meet an author or just spend some time reading a good book. Many also think it's pretty important. Some children might not like reading or struggle with it. There'll also be some children who don't have their own books at home, so this might mean they can get their first book. The World Book Day charity did some research in 2016 and found that for 1 in 4 kids, the book they bought with their token was the first one they owned. It also found that the day inspired lots of kids to read more. Let us know your favourite book in the comments below. We'd also love to hear about which characters you're going to dress up as this year! | https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/47029645 |
How are UK laws made and what is an amendment? | Getty Images Parliament is where politicians meet to decide laws and make decisions for the United Kingdom. For example, how money is spent on schools, hospitals and the police. The Houses of Parliament are in the Palace of Westminster in London. There are more than 1,000 rooms and more than two miles of corridors! The House of Commons: The most powerful of Parliament's two houses. The Commons is the most important place for Members of Parliament (MPs), who are voted in by the public, to discuss policies and make laws The House of Lords: This is Parliament's second chamber. Its main job is to 'double check' new laws to make sure they are fair and will work. People working here are not elected by the people. The Monarchy: The Queen has the final say on whether a bill becomes law. This is because the Queen is our head of state. What actually happens is that she accepts the advice of her government. Universal Images Group / Getty The House of Commons with its green benches Parliament acts like a factory that makes laws. To make a law you start with a 'bill'. You need to start with a bill, which is an idea that someone thinks will make a good law. The idea normally comes from the government. This is called a government sponsored bill. It can also come from an ordinary MP. If it does it is called a private member's bill. PA The House of Lords with its red benches The bill can start in the Commons or the Lords. It must pass through both Houses. Then the Queen - it always goes to the the Monarch last. First Reading PA Writin47029645 a bill is called drafting. The bill must be written carefully as mistakes could produce a law that was unfair or had 'loopholes' that allowed people to ignore it. Then you can formally tell everyone that you are going to start the process of making the bill into a law. When you announce this in the Houses of Parliament it is called a first reading. Second Reading PA Politicians need to debate the bill in their House - either the Commons or Lords At the second reading the bill is explained. The reasons why the bill is needed are debated. Those people who want the bill to become law must convince others that it is worthwhile. After the bill has been explained and talked about, there is a vote. The members of the House (Commons or Lords) will decide if the bill should continue its journey towards law. The bill must receive over half of the votes to get past the second reading. Oops you can't see this activity! To enjoy Newsround at its best you will need to have JavaScript turned on. Committee Stage A committee is a group of members of either House that looks at the detail of a bill and suggests changes. There are two types of committee: Standing Committee - a group of members that meet regularly and look at bills in a particular area of a government's work. Committee of the whole House - this is when the detail of a bill is examined by all members of a House of Parliament. A 'committee of the whole House' is common in the House of Lords. In the Commons it is reserved for very important laws, such as those that prevent terrorism. If either committee believes the bill needs to be made different in some way they will suggest changes called 'amendments'. Amendments must be voted for by both Houses. Report Stage The committee prepares a report on the bill and explains any amendments that have been suggested. Third Reading AFP / Getty Images Members of Parliament must talk through why they want a new law made or not After the committee has reported back to the House, the bill receives its third reading. The third reading is the point when another vote is taken on the bill. The House must decide whether it wants the bill, with its amendments, to become law. Moving to the Other House AFP / Getty Images The House of Lords in session discussing laws All bills must pass through both Houses of Parliament. If the bill started in the Commons it now moves to the Lords. If it started in the Lords it moves to the Commons. Any changes (amendments) made have to be agreed by both Houses. If the House of Lords votes against a bill that the Commons wants, it can be delayed for a year. The Lords cannot permanently block a bill. Royal Assent Getty Images Queen Elizabeth II is involved in the final step of making a law The Queen in her role as head of state gives Royal assent to the bill. This is the final stage of the bill's progress in Parliament. The bill has become an Act of Parliament. It does not necessarily become law straight away. Some acts come in to force after a set period of time. This is to allow people to change their behaviour so they do not break the new law. | https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/47029982 |
Has Larry Fink Gone Too Far With Corporate Purpose Or Not Far Enough? | Years ago I used to joke when speaking about good corporate citizenship that it was mandatory for me to reference market research by Cone Communications. that showed how - price and quality being equal - consumers preferred to buy from companies that supported good causes. The research was both powerful (look - people want companies to support good causes) and in a sense powerless (this is such a 'motherhood and apple pie' question that it is kind of shocking that 100% of people asked dont answer affirmatively.) It now appears that Larry Fink, the CEO of Blackrock, the worlds largest money manager, has stolen the mantle of mandatory inclusion in every presentation on the intersection of cause and commerce. For two years running Fink has issued annual letters in which he admonishes corporate leaders to integrate their companys pursuit of profit with their pursuit of purpose. Purpose is not the sole pursuit of profits but the animating force for achieving them, he wrote in this years letter. Having somebody as corporate as Larry Fink embrace purpose not as a nice to do, but a core must do has made him a darling of those of us who believe that corporations have an important place in ameliorating the state of the world we live in. The other day, however, I was roused from the bubble of mostly-like-minded opinion that I usually inhabit by a very different take on the Larry Fink phenomenon a post on Fox Business. The authors of that piece quoted sources who equated Finks pronouncements and efforts to dramatically increase diversity and inclusion at Blackrock with corporate socialism and alleged that Blackrock has lost the business of major investors who dont agree with Finks political views. I dont agree with most of the Fox articles criticism in fact I would argue that Blackrock should strongly consider going further in how it seeks to influence some of the companies in which it invests. But I was in a sense grateful to have been reminded that many people in our divided nation see Finks type of thinking as threatening, not enlightened. That saddens me, but also emboldens me to work even harder to share examples of how doing well can lead to doing good. One of the complicating factors in this pursuit is that there are so many possible roads to follow when seeking to build a sustainable business that simultaneously pursues social and financial dividends. And, further complicating the equation, what works today may not work as well tomorrow. I was reminded of this challenge two weeks ago when I attended a rally to end gun violence at the southern California headquarters of TOMS, the privately-held firm that has given away 86 million pairs of shoes since it was started in 2006 by a social entrepreneur who captured the passion of consumers turned on by its buy one, give one message. The company is still deeply committed to giving away shoes, but it is now also venturing far afield in pursuing social impact by having made a huge commitment to fighting gun violence, a critical issue but arguably one of the thorniest issues one could affiliate with. In just a matter of months, TOMS has made a three-year, $5 million pledge of financial support to groups working on the issue, has empowered 700,000+ consumers to send postcards on the issue to politicians and is in the midst of a cross-country tour that will end with a rally in Washington, DC on February 5th. Guns are the only consumer products manufactured in the US that are not subject to federal health and safety regulation. Universal background checks are just one of the practical gun safety measures we can take to help #endgunviolencetogether. pic.twitter.com/1u2upD6IaV TOMS (@TOMS) December 9, 2018 When TOMS started over a decade ago, its buy-one-give-one model really stood out and enabled the company to scale at an astounding rate. Success breeds imitation, however, and now the buy-one-give-one approach, while still powerful, is far from unique. Now, in addition to our One for One programs, were partnering with the artists and activists who are striving for progressby creating, by inspiring, by doing, the company explains. Because its bigger than shoes. Its what we do in them. Im excited by the business and social experiment that TOMS has embarked on and look forward to hearing more when their chief giving officer addresses the Engage for Good conference in May. And I am confident that we will continue to see a steady stream in the months and years to come of exciting efforts fusing the power of profit and purpose to build a better world and the bottom line. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhessekiel/2019/01/28/has-larry-fink-gone-too-far-with-corporate-purpose-or-not-far-enough/ |
How Was Davos Different This Year? And Why Does It Matter? | As I trekked up the Mountain from Zurich to Davos last week, some things were noticeably different in this 48th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. Immediately apparent was the lack of congestion. The Alpine village streets were largely clear of the 2018 traffic jams caused, at least in part, by the entourages of a record number of heads of state, which were conspicuously absent this year. Trump, Xi, Trudeau, Macron, and May and others were all at home tending to countless domestic challenges, rather than strutting their stuff on the global stage. Also obvious was the proliferation of corporate and government store fronts along the whole expanse of the towns main promenade. Rather than shops selling Swiss movement watches, Raclette cheese and Fondant wine, Davos participants were enticed to come in out of the cold and get acquainted with the people, products, thinking and cultures of companies and countries as varied as Zurich Insurance, Facebook, the Wall Street Journal, Canada, and Ukraine. The fact that these pop-ups were more numerous than in the past conveyed the sense that corporate and government leaders feel the need to make their brands personable and relatable in todays increasingly competitive global environment. But behind the walls of this Potemkin village were other less immediately obvious differences in the rarefied 5,000 foot (1,560 meter) Alpine air. This years official theme, Globalization 4.0: Shaping a Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution reflected the characteristically high aspirations of the Forum to try and restore global thinking and governance. But as the curtain rose on Davos, the world was clearly veering in a different direction. Headlines in every language heralded signs of an increasingly polarized and divided world, from the chronic U.S. government gridlock and the deadlock over Brexit, to the gilet jaune demonstrations across France, the two competing claimants to Venezuelas presidency, and protests against Chinas reported detention of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Muslims. No matter how one spins the globe, the world is in dramatically different place than it was when I first came to Davos 24 years ago. Who could now challenge this weeks Economist cover story announcing the advent of Slowbalization? It was good to see the Davos community finally accepting this reality, some three years after we released our report to a Davos audience that was very skeptical of our forecast of a world moving decidedly from globalization toward islandization. Before Davos this year, I also argued the global dialogue needed to go local as the dominant global business strategy was inevitably giving way to a veritable paradigm shift with the advent of an era of multi-localism. And sure enough, much of the Davos discussion focused on a range of issues and strategies that were decidedly local. One of the most well-attended and much anticipated sessions was the release of the Edelman Trust Barometer, measuring public and elite trust in institutions across 27 countries. This year, the results indicated that people have low confidence that societal institutions will help them navigate a turbulent world in which only one-in-five of the worlds population believe the system is working for them. In developed markets, only one-in-three believe his or her family will be better off in five years time. Perhaps even more eye-popping was the Edelman finding that nearly six in ten of the respondents were looking to their employersyes, their employersas a trustworthy source of information on the big contentious issues of the day, which Edelman President and CEO Richard Edelman labeled as trust going local. Nearly three out of four respondents expect CEOs to take a stand on challenging issues. This was quite a reverse from where we were ten short years ago, when the global financial system had imploded and people were looking to government to protect them from a private sector that had failed them. This is consistent with the results of our own Views from the C-Suite survey last year, in which almost 70 percent of executives said they will be expected to play leading roles in society beyond narrow corporate interests. Some, but too few have been. Witness PayPals pledge of $25 million to help unpaid U.S. federal government workers, Microsofts commitment of $500 million to Seattle affordable housing, and BASFs commitment to CO2-neutral growth through 2030. And then there are those corporate leaders who have courageously taken a stance on critical public policy issues on which political leadership has been absent, ineffective, or worse, morally bankrupt. If trust really is ultimately local, then business leaders must lead where they playwith their employees, their suppliers, their distributors, their customers, and the communities in which they live and work. By restoring trust on the ground at the local level where stakeholders can really feel how corporate commitment makes a difference in their lives, the private sector can help reform a system in which their fate, and that of the rest of us, lies. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/paullaudicina/2019/01/28/how-was-davos-different-this-year-and-why-does-it-matter/ |
What's up with the U.S. and Venezuela? Good? Bad? | At first glance, President Donald Trumps decision to recognize an upstart opposition leader as president of Venezuela looks like an abrupt and risky break from diplomatic norms vintage Trump, in other words. But it may be the most traditional foreign policy move this president has ever made. Not merely because Trump is seeking regime change in a Latin American country; the U.S. has done that for more than a century. And not because the intervention was aimed at a leftist government allied with Cuba, long a target of hawkish Republicans. The surprisingly normal thing was how downright multilateral the Trump administration was acting as if the president hadnt spent two years denouncing alliances as obstacles to his doctrine of America First. Before the U.S. declared Venezuelas President Nicolas Maduro illegitimate, State Department diplomats carefully marshaled support from other governments in Latin America and beyond. They allowed the 14-nation Lima Group, which doesnt include the U.S., to take the lead in building the case against Maduros regime. On Thursday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo went to the Organization of American States, the Western Hemispheres hoary multilateral talk shop, to ask for a resolution of support. He didnt get a majority, but at least he tried. Pompeo asked the United Nations Security Council for support, too. A White House official even praised the European Union for helping. That would be the same E.U. Trump has repeatedly denounced as a plot against the U.S. economy. This could actually be a case where the administration has gotten something right, said John D. Feeley, a former U.S. ambassador to Panama who has been an acerbic critic of Trumps diplomacy. It hurts to say that, but its true. The main reason our instinctively unilateral president has suddenly resorted to traditional diplomacy is simple. Few other options are available. From his first days in office, Trump and his aides identified Venezuelas leftist regime as a threat to U.S. interests. Maduro is allied closely with Cuba, Russia and China. His government controls the worlds largest proven oil reserves, bigger even than Saudi Arabias. Yet economic mismanagement, corruption and skyrocketing crime under Maduro have brought the country to its knees. Millions of Venezuelans have fled to neighboring countries, creating a genuine refugee crisis. When Trump got his first White House briefings on Venezuela, he asked whether U.S. military intervention would solve the problem. Worried aides told him an invasion would be disastrous. DOD [the Defense Department] said they were fighting enough wars already, one told me. U.S. officials then held a series of clandestine meetings with dissident Venezuelan military officers. But it wasnt clear if they were capable of launching a coup and, in any case, the officers were soon arrested. That left diplomacy and economic pressure. State Department officials encouraged the Lima Group to organize multilateral pressure against the Maduro regime. It was important that other countries took the lead to avoid making the effort look like U.S. imperialism. The Colombians and the Canadians were the ones who drove the process, Feeley, who works for Univision, the Spanish-language television network, told me. A turning point came Jan. 4, when 13 of the 14 Lima Group countries jointly declared Maduro illegitimate. That opened the way for the head of Venezuelas legislature, Juan Guaido, to declare himself interim president. Now the U.S. Treasury Department is preparing an innovative new economic sanction: an effort to divert the cash Venezuela earns from oil exports away from Maduro to Guaidos alternative government. The goal is to divide the regime, including its military, and bring about its collapse. Theres no guarantee the plan will work. The oil-revenue scheme could be blocked by lawsuits. Maduros forces could turn U.S. diplomats in Caracas into hostages. The regime could prove more resilient than expected. But the nimble diplomacy of the U.S. and its allies has created a better chance of ousting Maduro without violence than before. And it won the Trump administration praise from unexpected quarters; Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., the second-ranking Democrat in the Senate, and Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, both endorsed the move. It may even have a chance of teaching Trump a larger lesson: When the U.S. cant get its way through unilateral action, old-fashioned alliances and multilateral organizations still come in handy. That principle helped much of the world stay peaceful since the end of World War II. It should come in especially handy in an era when U.S. military and economic power is less dominant than before. Or maybe not. On Thursday, Trumps national security adviser, John Bolton, was asked by a reporter why the United States was intervening in Venezuela and not against other authoritarian regimes. Bolton gave a brief nod to multilateralism, citing support for the U.S. position from Latin America and Europe. Then he offered another rationale perhaps the oldest unilateralist principle in U.S. foreign policy, the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. The fact is Venezuela is in our hemisphere, Bolton said. I think we have a special responsibility here. | http://www.startribune.com/what-s-up-with-the-u-s-and-venezuela-good-bad/504993172/ |
Can emergency sirens have volume control? | How much noise is too noisy?, Jan. 28 I read with interest the article by Francine Kopun. An update on bylaws in this area is long overdue and I appreciate the detailed article. However, there is no mention of the noises made by large trucks going over street car tracks (Jarvis and King in particular) which have been investigated and proven to deliver noise that exceeds the noise limit. Nor does it mention sirens along the King Street Pilot project which have increased since the project began. I fully realize that emergency vehicles need to alert traffic and pedestrians, but if you are on the street as they go by or have your windows open nearby, the noise is piercing. Can the sound be lowered and then perhaps increased at corners. Nancy Miller, Toronto | https://www.thestar.com/opinion/letters_to_the_editors/2019/01/28/can-emergency-sirens-have-volume-control.html |
Has Amazon Really Changed Whole Foods' Image? | Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) won't be opening any more Whole Foods 365 discount stores. The grocery store chain's CEO, John Mackey, said the price gap between the value chain and the full-price Whole Foods Market stores has narrowed enough since Amazon bought the company that there is no longer a need for two separate chains. Whole lotta nothing Whole Foods has been plagued with a reputation as an overpriced organic grocer since its beginning, a perception reflected in the "Whole Paycheck" moniker many people give it. The 365 concept was opened to counter that perception, and focused on Whole Foods' private-label brand, which sometimes carried items priced lower than you could find at Walmart. There are a dozen 365 stores now. Produce department inside a Whole Foods 365 store More Image source: Whole Foods Market. When Amazon bought the supermarket, it put up for sale on its online grocery platform thousands of 365 goods, most of which sold out almost immediately. Subsequent surveys, however, found the price discounts offered by Amazon for Whole Foods goods were fleeting at best. As recently as last September, market researchers at Gordon Haskett Research Advisors found that although consumers expected Amazon to cut Whole Foods prices by an average of 15%, a basket of 108 items that would have cost $409.37 on Aug. 17, 2017 -- the day Amazon's acquisition of Whole Foods closed -- cost $407.83 one year later, a savings of just $1.54. As the report noted, "But to save the $1.54, customer had to fork over the $119 annual Prime membership fee." Though many of them may already have had a Prime membership, as the company says there are more than 100 million Prime members. Prime beneficiary Yet Amazon has rolled out a number of benefits to its Prime members who shop at Whole Foods. Members get an additional 10% off hundreds of sale items in the store, as well as exclusive access to weekly deals. Amazon has also expanded to eight the number of cities where, through its Prime Now service, customers can enjoy one-hour pickup of the groceries they purchased from Whole Foods. There is also one-hour delivery for Prime Now customers in 63 cities, and customers can also receive 5% back on Whole Foods purchases if they shop using Amazon's Prime Rewards Visa Card, all of which has helped Amazon own the online grocery market. So Whole Foods shoppers do receive several benefits from Amazon's ownership, and though most consumers have to pay for a Prime membership to receive them, they're also getting a lot of other benefits included in their Prime membership, such as free shipping and streaming videos and music. The Whole Foods discounts are an added perk, and Amazon is expanding the number of Whole Foods stores across the country. One step back, two steps forward But the answer to the question of whether Amazon has convinced consumers Whole Foods is no longer Whole Paycheck would seem to be a no. A Yahoo! Finance survey last August found that while half of the 2,000 people it queried thought Amazon had brought positive change to Whole Foods, 40% believed Whole Foods prices weren't any lower. That may not be much of an impediment as Amazon can still win over consumers by adding more value. That's exactly what it's been doing with the addition of Prime benefits, and by connecting Whole Foods to the loyalty program, it makes the membership itself more valuable. | https://news.yahoo.com/amazon-really-changed-whole-foods-010800396.html |
Is Rumer Willis the Lion on The Masked Singer? | Ever since week one of The Masked Singer, Rumer Willis has been one of the most popular guesses for the Lion. She's a part of Hollywood royalty, we already know she's a great singer, and as part of the Fox family thanks to her role on Empire, it's pretty likely Fox could have gotten her to do this show. So of course, everyone was going to ask Willis about the Lion when she hit the red carpet at the SAG Awards. "I am not," she told People Now during the People, Entertainment Weekly & TNT Red Carpet before the show, but she admitted to having seen the rumors. "All of a sudden when it started airing, I started getting all of these things in my Twitter feed and I said, oh okay. Well, maybe I have to watch this and see what's happening. It's pretty cool." When E! News spoke to her on the same carpet, there was no such denial. "My Twitter feed was going off and all of these things kept popping up," she told us. I literally didn't know what to do. I was like, okay guys, I don't really know, but okay, this is cool. I think it was awesome. I really love the idea for the show." | https://www.eonline.com/news/1009331/is-rumer-willis-the-lion-on-the-masked-singer-an-investigation |
How close is Suns rookie Deandre Ayton to returning from his left ankle sprain? | SAN ANTONIO Devin Booker has been the talk of Phoenixs eight-game losing skid. The Suns havent won since he returned from back spasms. Bookers been ejected from a game that included a $25,000 fine and is trying to embrace the challenge of turning the franchise around. (Photo: Rob Schumacher/The Republic) The constant losing. That's what gets to me and has always gotten to me, said the third-year guard as the Suns (11-41) sit a loss away from assuring themselves a fifth straight losing season. Maybe one day, there will be beauty in this. That we went through the ringer to get where we need to go and that's my job to make that happen. "The constant losing. That's what gets to me and has always gotten to me. Maybe one day, there will be beauty in this. That we went through the ringer to get where we need to go and that's my job to make that happen." Devin Booker after #Suns lose 8th straight game Sunday night. pic.twitter.com/kddcSBzVVU Duane Rankin (@DuaneRankin) January 28, 2019 What seems to have gotten lost in all of this losing and Booker's frustrations is the Suns have been without a certain rookie 7-footer for the past five games. Deandre Ayton hasnt played since spraining his left ankle in the first half of a 20-point loss at Charlotte. Ayton tried to avoid TJ Warren in the lane as Warren was on the ground after getting fouled and hurt his ankle. The Suns list Ayton as doubtful for Tuesdays game at San Antonio (29-22), but the No. 1 overall pick out of Arizona did more in practice Monday than he has since the injury. He did some practice, Suns coach Igor Kokoskov said. Did some treatment. Went upstairs and did a little bit of lifting weights. He just partially took a part in practice. He feels good. He feels healthy. Before Sundays 116-102 loss at Los Angeles against the Lakers, Kokoskov said he wouldnt be surprised Ayton played against San Antonio. Less than 24 hours later, Ayton is listed as doubtful, but how he feels during and after Tuesdays shootaround will better determine if he plays later that night at AT&T Center. At this point, Im leaving it up to him and the medical staff, Kokoskov said. If Ayton cant go again, Kokoskov will look to start Richaun Holmes instead of Dragan Bender, who has been starting for Ayton at center. Kokoskov started Holmes in place of Bender to begin the second half Sunday night. Yes, Kokoskov said when asked if he'll start Holmes if Ayton can't play Tuesday night. Thats an option. Hes athletic, strong. More presence. Los Angeles Lakers center Ivica Zubac, right, shoots as Phoenix Suns forward Dragan Bender defends during the first half on Sunday, Jan. 27, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill) (Photo: Mark J. Terrill, AP) Bender also had ice on his right shooting hand after Monday's practice and left the gym at Antioch Sports Complex with a wrap on it. Bender has averaged 12.2 points and 6.4 rebounds in his five starts for Ayton, posting double-doubles in the first two, but had just five points and four boards in 13 minutes Sunday. I think Bender is doing a very good job in helping this team, maintaining games, Kokoskov said. In all of training camp he was a power forward. To move to the five position and also playing against starting fives, youve got to keep all these things into consideration. Ayton has 27 double-doubles in 47 games (46 starts) as hes averaging 16.4 points on 59.4 percent shooting and a team-high 10.6 rebounds. He couldve certainly helped the Suns on the glass as theyve been outrebounded by an average margin of 11.8 and yielded a total of 76 offensive rebounds in this five-game stretch without him. Holmes missed four of those as well, including the 37-point loss at Denver where the Nuggets owned the glass, 57-35. He returned from his right foot sprain to post a double-double of 12 points and 10 boards in helping the Suns nearly break even on the boards (41-40) with Los Angeles. It felt good, said Holmes about his return. I never like missing games. I love stepping out on the court. Even in his return, the Lakers still had 14 offensive boards and scored 70 points in the paint, but only 18 of those came in the second half that Holmes started. We had more resistance, some kind of reaction to protecting the paint, Kokoskov said. The Suns will still be without DeAnthony Melton (right ankle sprain), who has been wearing a boot, and second-leading scorer TJ Warren (right ankle soreness), who will be re-evaluated next week or so. Jan 27, 2019: Phoenix Suns forward Emanuel Terry (10) defends Los Angeles Lakers center Ivica Zubac (40) in the first half of the game at Staples Center. (Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports) Jawun Evans has been called up from Phoenixs G League affiliate, the Northern Arizona Suns, and rookie Emanuel Terry signed a 10-day contract to gives the Suns another athletic big. The 6-9, 220-pound forward had five points, three rebounds and two steals in his NBA debut Sunday. Energy, live body, said Kokoskov about Terry, who averaged 10.1 points and 6.7 rebounds in 27 games in the G League with Sioux Falls and Canton. Hes competing. Yes sir guy, which is great. Healthy person in the locker room, which is great. Out at Lincoln Memorial University, NCAA Division II school in Harrogate, Tenn., Terry playing five games with the Denver Nuggets in the 2018 NBA Summer League and one preseason game with the Nuggets and Cleveland Cavaliers. Were not expecting him to go in there and get 20 and 10 his first game, but he held his own, he fought and thats all we can ask for, Booker said. Terry essentially replaced Quincy Acy, whom the Suns didnt sign for the remainder of the season after his second 10-day contract expired. The six-year veteran averaged 1.7 points and 2.5 rebounds in 10 games with the Suns. Tuesday's game Suns at San Antonio Spurs When: 6:30 p.m. Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio. TV: FSAZ. Outlook: Phoenix (11-41) has lost eight straight games, including Sundays 116-102 defeat at the Los Angeles Lakers. San Antonio has won its last two games after losing the previous two as the Spurs are coming off a 132-119 win over Washington. The Suns have been without rookie 7-footer Deandre Ayton (left ankle sprain) the last five games as hes listed as doubtful to play Tuesday night. The Suns will be without starting rookie point guard DeAnthony Melton (right ankle sprain) and teams second-leading scorer TJ Warren (right ankle soreness). San Antonio, which is 2-1 against Phoenix this season, will follow Tuesdays game with home games vs. Brooklyn and New Orleans before going on its traditional marathon road trip (eight games) due to the rodeos in town. Phoenix returns home to face Atlanta on Saturday and Houston next Monday before hitting the road again to play Feb. 6 at Utah. | https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nba/suns/2019/01/28/phoenix-suns-deandre-ayton-close-returning-ankle-sprain/2706725002/ |
What was that rust-coloured stuff in the Whanganui River? | There is rust-coloured brown water discharging into the Whanganui River most of the time - but it gets more visible in summer when the river runs clear. The latest discharge was photographed by Hayden Signal from Taupo Quay, probably on January 28 during a high tide when water in the river was clear and the discharge was visible. Most of the time it runs into a brown river and is unnoticed, Whanganui District Council senior stormwater engineer Kritzo Venter said. The water is from Churton Creek and runs through the Springvale catchment. The catchment has iron-sand, and bacteria living in the pipes there oxidise the iron, making for this red-brown discharge. Questions about it are some of the most frequent the council gets, Venter said. Advertisement A similar discharge has been seen at times at the North Mole fishing platforms, alarming fishers. It's also the result of bacteria oxidising iron as water flows through the Springvale and Castlecliff areas, Venter said. The bacteria are harmless, but they can increase in number and create a brown gelatinous slime that clogs pumps and drains. The bacteria, also known as iron ochre, are sometimes visible on the surface of groundwater. At those times they give it an oily orange sheen. | https://www.nzherald.co.nz/water/news/article.cfm?c_id=362&objectid=12197835 |
Will Todd Gurley's necklace be louder than his game at Super Bowl LIII? | ATLANTA Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley should be one of the surest things in Super Bowl LIII. He was NFL offensive player of the year last season and an MVP candidate most of this season. Hes one of the NFLs true superstars. Yet, there are a lot of questions about Gurley before the Rams play the New England Patriots, and how much hell play after spending a lot of the NFC championship game against the New Orleans Saints on the bench, watching C.J. Anderson. Scroll to continue with content Ad I expect to play the whole game, never come out of the game, never get a break, Gurley said at Super Bowl Media Night on Monday, keeping a straight face. Nah, Im just messing with you. He maintained the jokes during an interview with the NFL Networks Deion Sanders, who pointed out the running backs eye-popping necklace. I dont rock nothing less than 100 around my neck, Gurley said. Assuming he meant $100,000 here, which would mean its good to be a baller. Jokes aside, Gurleys role is a mystery. Before the playoffs, his role was never in doubt. Gurley logged at least 85 percent of the snaps nine times in his first 14 games, usually coming up short of that only in blowout wins, as one of the true workhorse backs left in the NFL. Then Gurley dealt with a knee injury that cost him the final two games of the regular season. He has been sharing time with Anderson in the postseason. [Ditch the pen and paper on footballs biggest day. Go digital with Squares Pickem!] Gurley denied hes still injured, telling media in Los Angeles last week that if there was an issue on my knee it would have been on the injury report. Gurley wasnt on the injury report leading up to the NFC title game. Im feeling good, Gurley said on Monday. Practice has been going well. Story continues So we wait to see how much Gurley will play Sunday, whether hell be back to his normal role playing nearly every down, or if the All-Pro back will be still be splitting time. The Rams Todd Gurley enjoyed the spotlight in front of media on Monday night. (AP) Gurley didnt get many touches vs. Saints Gurleys split in time against the Saints was surprising, including to the guy who got the extra playing time as a result. Youve got an All-Pro back whos been a first-team All-Pro for three years I believe, Anderson said, though Gurley has been All-Pro only twice. What he brings to the game, how special he is, youre always surprised if youre going to get any more touches or carries than a guy like that. Gurley injured his knee in Week 15, and missed Weeks 16 and 17. Then the Rams had a bye week, and he was productive in the divisional round. He had 115 yards against the Cowboys, and even though it was still strange that Gurley got 16 carries while Anderson got 23, it seemed Gurley was back on track. Thats what made the NFC championship game so odd. Anderson has had a good career and gave the Rams a boost after they signed him to fill in while Gurley was injured. But hes not as good as Gurley, arguably the NFLs best running back over the past two seasons. Yet, against the Saints, Anderson had 35 snaps and Gurley had 32. Anderson had 17 touches and Gurley had five. Gurley had one touch after halftime, with a Super Bowl berth on the line. Hall of Fame tight end Shannon Sharpe was convinced during the game that Gurley wasnt healthy. Gurley is hurt. His body language tells me this shannon sharpe (@ShannonSharpe) January 20, 2019 Gurley said his lack of playing time was because he struggled early, and he dropped two passes and wasnt great in pass protection. McVay said it was a flow of the game thing. It is very hard to believe that a couple bad plays early caused McVay to think Anderson was a better option than Gurley, one of the best players in the NFL, or that he forgot about Gurley in the flow of the game. But thats the Rams story, and theyre sticking to it. Nah, its cool, Gurley said when asked about his knee. Its been good. Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley didnt have a big impact in the NFC championship game against the Saints. (AP) Gurley looking to bounce back in Super Bowl Anderson wasnt giving away any of the Rams plans at running back. We dont know how Sunday is going to go, Anderson said. But if the number is called, Ill be ready to go. Nobody will remember or care how many carries Gurley got in the NFC championship game if he has a big Super Bowl in a Rams win. That would further cement his status as one of the leagues superstars. Thats why you play in games like that, to set you legacy, Gurley said. Thats why guys like Tom [Brady], thats why hes Tom. For me to be able to come here, if I can win that, if we can win that, it would be amazing for everyones legacy. More than any other Rams player, he seemed overwhelmed by making it to the Super Bowl. He kept saying on Monday night that it was a once in a lifetime opportunity, and he seemed to appreciate every part of it. He was sobbing tears of joy on the field after the Rams beat the Saints. He didnt seem to care he got only five touches. He was headed to the Super Bowl. That was just it was crazy. We were going to the Super Bowl, man, Gurley said. It was so exciting just to be able to soak it all in with your teammates, all the hard work you put in. It was definitely a good feeling. A lot of tears of joy. More from Yahoo Sports: Saints player still upset: His Pro Bowl shirt says it all Golfer loses nearly $100K for questionable penalty Funny ending to rain-soaked, blooper-filled Pro Bowl Reigning MVP backs out of White House visit Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Subscribe to The Yahoo Sports NFL Podcast Apple Podcasts Stitcher Google Podcasts | https://sports.yahoo.com/will-todd-gurley-major-factor-super-bowl-liii-quiet-nfc-title-game-014138414.html?src=rss |
Does Modern Monetary Theory Have Any Scholarly Validity? | There have been a number of pieces of late that have taken shots at what is called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). This set of economic concepts has actually been around for quite a while, but it has been receiving extra attention of late because some politicians have been citing it in support of programs they would like to pursue. Indeed, there has been a veritable explosion of coverage. Just type modern monetary theory into your Google news search window and youll see what I mean. As someone who has been a professional economist for over thirty years, I am finding the level of media interest in an economic theory astounding. I cant remember anything else quite like it. I guess maybe Supply Side Economics might qualify, but that was never more than a simple statement about incentives. MMT, on the other hand, covers federal government budgeting, central bank behavior, inflation, employment, and more. That outlets ranging from the Wall Street Journal to HuffPost are diving into the debate is fascinating and, I think, extremely encouraging. Well, mostly encouraging. One problem is that any time something complicated is discussed in the public arena, it necessarily gets oversimplified by both believers and detractors. Articles in professional journals, where authors take pains to carefully explain concepts and offer logical and empirical support for their theories, run 5000 to 10,000 words. More complex ideas laid out in books obviously take much longer. But your typical Op Ed or blog post is closer to 750 words. It is absolutely impossible to adequately explain a theory of any import in that space. This is especially true when that theory flies in the face of conventional wisdom and asks the reader to not only learn a new idea, but stop believing an old one. This is precisely the case with MMT. It is therefore of little surprise that there has been so much contention regarding a set of ideas that should not be very controversial at all. They end up being offered here and there in piecemeal, making it difficult to get the broader concepts across even to the curious and open-minded (let alone those who are predisposed to disagree). What I would really love to do right now is give you a complete and comprehensive explanation of what MMT isof course, thats impossible for all the reasons suggested above (heck, Im already at almost 400 words)! So, while I will offer some helpful links later, let me just focus here on a few of the ideas attracting the most attention. In fact, lets make a game of it! Three things before we get started. First, economics is about policy and policy is intended to solve a problem. The problem foremost in the mind of MMT economists is unemployment. Their goal is to make sure that everyone who wants a job, has a job and MMTs path to ensuring that goes through the public sector (because in the private sector, labor is a cost to be minimized). Second, the aspects of MMT that seem to draw the most flak are not unique to them. I have many colleagues who do not call themselves MMT economists but who believe these very same things. This is not to say that MMT does not make its own unique contributions. Rather, the point I am trying to make is that it is hardly radical, a cult, or "a load of old tosh" as some articles have argued. Third and last, Im basing what I say below on my knowledge of MMT scholarly research, not on op eds and blog posts. I have known the economists who are at the forefront of MMT for decades and I know their work. I actually dont even agree with all of it. But, ironically, on those issues that have proved to be the most controversial, I am with them 100%. Now on to the game! 1. The federal government can print is own money. TRUE! The reason they say it is quite simple: it can. Not just as an emergency measure, but as something they already do every single day. Heck, the private sector creates money, too, as I explained last week. This isnt a theory, its a legal fact. Period. 2. The federal government doesnt have to pay back the debt. FALSE. I dont know anyone who has ever said that, probably because it is not true. Of course they have to pay the individual Treasury Bills when they mature, and they do. There is no reason, however, that they cannot do what every household and business in America can also do, and that is subsequently take on new debt. Nor must its level of debt ever be reduced to zero any more than Exxons or CitiBanks. 3. The federal government cant be forced into bankruptcy. Another TRUE and again simply because, well, it's true. The US cannot be forced to default in debt denominated in currency it is allowed to issue. Just as with item #1, this is not a theory, its a fact of the law. 4. We can afford any social program we want. FALSE. I dont know a single, solitary MMT scholar who has ever argued this. Of course not. Money may not be scarce (in either the private or public sectors), but resources absolutely are. If we have the resources, money can be created to use them. If we dont, then money is irrelevant. The question is never, "Do we have enough money for a border wall, free college, or universal health care?" Its, "Do we have the resources?" This is absolutely, positively central to MMT and anyone who says otherwise is either ignorant or deliberately misstating the facts. 5. Financing the deficit by printing money cant cause inflation. FALSE. Nope, they didnt say this either. If the economy is at full employment and we continue to stimulate demand, then of course prices are inflated. Supply cannot keep up with demand. That was precisely our problem in WWII. With unemployment around 2%, we spent in massive deficit and had to introduce rationing and price controls. Every MMT scholar is well aware of this and it has been mentioned many times. 6. Deficits dont matter. Thats such a hollow statement that no MMT economist would ever utter it because it doesnt even mean anything. In that sense, no, it doesnt matter (see #2). Then it does matter (#5). Nope. Some of it is a waste of time in that it never really gets to the policy issue mentioned above: unemployment. Deficits DO matter about some things and they DON'T matter about others. Im now over 1000 words so I had better cut it off. My overall point is this: I have yet to read one of these hit jobs on MMT that truly attacked something MMT research argues. Piece after piece that I read in doing the background for this made false claims, confused MMT with other theories, or ignored basic economic principles in their attacks. Perhaps the biggest irony of all is that we already basically follow MMT-consistent policies when it comes to things like wars. Sorry, we can't afford that! P.S. As promised above, here are some helpful links. For something truly comprehensive, go here: MMT Primer If you want to see something shorter but still quite in-depth, go here: Modern Money Theory 101: A Reply to Critics Finally, here is my 2300-word piece that Forbes was kind enough to accept almost eight years ago. Thats the absolute shortest I thought I could get the ideas across. Even then, it leaves a lot out. The Big Danger In Cutting The Deficit | https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntharvey/2019/01/28/is-mmt-scholarly/ |
Does highlight-reel dunking overshadow Duke star Zion Williamson's overall greatness? | Duke Blue Devils forward Zion Williamson (1) dunks during the second half against the Clemson Tigers at Cameron Indoor Stadium. (Photo: Rob Kinnan, USA TODAY Sports) Duke freshman star Zion Williamson has been drawing national attention for his rim-rocking dunks dating back to high school. And since his arrival in Durham, the 6-7 athletic forward has provided ample highlight-reel slams on the Blue Devils' pursuit of a national title with a freshmen-laden roster. But after Duke's dominant win over Wake Forest on Tuesday a game that saw the 18-year-old score a career-high 30 points Williamson revealed he doesn't like to be labeled for just one facet of his game. "I kind of hate being classified as a dunker," Williamson said, via ESPN. "Coach (Mike Krzyzewski) wouldn't have recruited me if I was just a dunker. But I guess people on the outside don't understand that. I can't play to impress other people. I'm playing to get better for myself and my teammates and hopefully make a run for a national championship." Or do they overshadow Williamson's stock as a do-everything type of player who could be the No. Against Wake Forest, Williamson also added 10 rebounds, five assists and four steals. Plus, Williamson showed his range with with three 3-pointers in the victory. Yet, the highlight reels focused on the eye candy that are Williamson's slams. (via @CBSSports)pic.twitter.com/vT73vJM5ZU Yahoo Sports NBA (@YahooSportsNBA) January 6, 2019 Krzyzewski doubled down on that notion that Williamson is much more than a dunker, adding after the Wake Forest win: "I have confidence in him doing everything. If I don't, there's something wrong with me. He's a complete player." One player who was pigeonholed as a dunker earlier in his career, eight-time NBA All-Star Vince Carter, offered his insight on Williamson's pro potential outside of the slam dunk contest. "He'll be ready (for the NBA)," Carter told ESPN. "One thing I learned when I got in this league is that yes, I'm athletic, but there's gonna be a lot of guys up here that are athletic. I think he's going through that phase, kind of what I went through. Everybody looks at 'he can dunk, he can dunk,' but now when you have guys that are super athletic, then they're going to start saying, 'What else can he do?'" Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr compared Williamson to LeBron James, one of the game's most complete players, back in November. Carter thinks time will show Williamson's true identity in the NBA. "He has the potential to be, obviously, the No. 1 pick whenever he decides to come out. I think that's understood," Carter said. "He's super, super athletic. He has an NBA body already. I think, more than anything, with all his ability, I just say take his time, develop his game, because when you get here, it's a different beast as far as expectations. A lot of guys try to get here and just develop while they get here." | https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2019/01/09/duke-zion-williamson-greatness-overshadowed-highlight-reel-dunking/2524737002/ |
Is it ever OK for non-disabled actors to play disabled roles? | We are familiar with the repellent days of blacking up the disabled actors equivalent is cripping up, a term used by acting activists to highlight that it is not acceptable for a non-disabled actor to mimic impairments, then win an Oscar. The acting union Equity has said that in casting disabled roles, every avenue should be considered to cast a disabled actor. Yet the challenges for disabled actors and the representation of a disability experience in film are not isolated to casting. Fundamental barriers to auditioning limit spaces for disabled actors; for those who do get work, it is still mostly for disabled roles written by non-disabled writers, which may present stereotypical or unrepresentative characters. There is a need to think critically about how disability is being defined, writes academic Dr Alison Wilde in her book Film, Comedy and Disability, with representational and employment concerns deeply interwoven into the film industrys ideologies, practices and processes There are dangers we may thwart our own goals. The result of this self-perpetuating cycle is limited opportunities to tell the disabled story in all its dimensions. Disabled actor-writer Mat Fraser, who played crippled Richard III last year, summed it up: Ideally, anybody should be able to play any body, but only when there is a truly level playing field of opportunity. Every theatre should commission at least one disabled playwright and cast at least one disabled actor each year, he wrote, as a condition of arts funding. Dont tell me there are no disabled actors with talent. This week, I watched Silent Witness with Liz Carr, a disabled actor who, for seven years, has played disabled lab technician Clarissa Mullery. Carr, an alumni of Graeae Theatre Company, was excellent as usual, yet heres the rub she only got a handful of lines on Monday. | https://www.theguardian.com/society/shortcuts/2019/jan/09/is-it-ever-ok-for-non-disabled-actors-to-play-disabled-roles |
Whats Better Than One Mysterious Cosmic Signal? | They began to search the sky, with focused attention and more powerful tools. And, to their relief, astronomers have now found that, no, FRB 121102 is not the lone example of this intriguing phenomenon. Read: A spree of signals from across the universe A Canadian-led team announced Wednesday the discovery of a second repeating FRB. A newly built radio telescope in British Columbia detected six flashes from the same spot in the sky last summer. This FRB, named 180814, appears to originate about 1.5 billion light-years away from Earth, half the distance of the other repeating burst. The same team has also detected 12 more one-off FRBs, which brings the total number of known flashes to 65. The research, described in a pair of papers in Nature, will provide more clues to one of astronomys greatest mysteries. The two repeating signals have more in common than just their flashy nature. When FRBs arrive at Earth, many appear smeared across a range of frequencies, a sign of their long and bumpy journeys through cosmic material across the universe. This includes FRBs 121102 and 180814. But even though the bursts came from two very different locations, and carved out two very different paths to Earth, their radio waves showed similar distortion patterns. This particular finding stunned astronomers at a recent conference, where the researchers teased their discovery with a little trick. They put up images of these bursts, and everyone was like, Okay, that looks familiar, and then the person showing it said, Actually, youve never seen this before, because theyre from a new repeating FRB, said Shami Chatterjee, an astrophysicist at Cornell who studies FRBs and was not involved in the new research. It looks shockingly similar. The similarities suggest the two repeaters may have originated in the same kind of environment. Its possible that repeating bursts are just one of many classes of FRBs, some yet to be discovered. But with so little information, researchers are far from any definitive conclusions. We dont know what it means yet, said Ingrid Stairs, an astrophysicist at the University of British Columbia and a member of the research team. This is our second repeater. I think we need to have a much better sample. When the first FRB was discovered in 2007, some astronomers thought the flashes could be errant noise from telescope instruments. The bursts just didnt seem real. These things are billions of light-years away, said Jason Hessels, an astronomer at the University of Amsterdam and ASTRON, the Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy, who studies FRBs. Its absolutely remarkable that they can still be bright enough to detect on Earth. The complicated twisting observed in FRBs suggests they come from extreme environments with strong magnetic fields and high temperatures. Astronomers know of several astrophysical objects that could provide these radio-wave-bending conditions: Supermassive black holes, which can belch streams of radiation in space when they eat matter. Neutron stars, the fast-spinning cores of stars, leftover from spectacular explosions. Magnetars, a certain kind of neutron star, which spin even faster. | https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/fast-radio-burst-repeating/579865/?utm_source=feed |
Can Next-Gen Web Advocacy Bring Washington To Heel? | Founded in 2014, one company is trying to address these questions. Countable, a play on the word 'accountability' and 'the act of being counted', has created a public-access platform through which people can follow what their elected officials are doing on Capitol Hill, and provide instant feedback in the form of 'votes,' that it tallies and sends directly to the accounts of subscribers' representatives in Washington. Countables stated mission is to break open the lawmaking process" to the average citizen, while giving individual citizens, advocacy groups, candidates for political office and companies the means to galvanize their members and employees in support of issues of importance to them. Starbucks has used Countable to manage a portion of its internal corporate responsibility efforts. These are significant innovations, given that until recently (and possibly since the first U.S. Congress met on March 4, 1789 in New York's Federal Hall) only the most persistent or cranky of voters would bother to contact their elected officials with an opinion -- for this required writing a letter and putting a stamp on it. Lawmakers typically have an Intern on staff, whose job it is to respond to 'constituent mail' with palliative form letters. Rarely was such information useful to the representatives in determining what mattered to their constituents. Called by GQ magazine the Tinder of Pending Legislation (as truly odd as that juxtaposition may be) Countables interface is built around short, visually-enhanced descriptions of bills introduced by the House or Senate -- and charts their progress towards becoming law. These are listed in Hollywood Squares fashion, surrounding captions that summarize the proposition, like Do you support banning anyone under 21 from buying an assault rifle? "Do you support term limits on members of Congress?" If one clicks on any of the 'squares', one gets information on related bills proposed or voted on, and background on the bigger issue. The content is moderated by Countable itself for accuracy, bias and relevance. "Take action" buttons pepper the content, allowing one to register one's views, or provide direct comment. I met Countable's CEO and founder Bart Myers in an unassuming cafe in downtown Oakland in late December, 2018 just as President Trump initiated a government shutdown to try to force funding of his anti-immigrant Wall with Mexico -- and the pages of Countable documented the legislative counter-punch. At first glance, Myers seems like he'd be more comfortable in the Pacific Northwest than the Bay Area tech scene (turns out, he's from Seattle). He takes his coffee black, and describes himself as a centrist. In the early 2000s, Myers founded a company that was bought by TiVo the early direct recording technology that allowed viewers to tape shows when they were away, and zap advertisements from their cable or public TV feed. In keeping with Myers background as a senior executive with TiVo, there are no visible advertisements on Countable. Advertisements particularly targeted ads, he says, are a big part of the problem. They are deployed to create an echo chamber, feeding people ideas and products that conform to what they already believe. Countable makes its money for now by selling advocacy tools (enterprise software) though the back end with tools that enable individuals, pundits and companies to create advocacy campaign around issues relevant to them and their employees or followers. Myers emphasizes what he calls the omni-partisan nature of the platform: "Countable doesnt care what party you belong to. We believe the majority of people want to be leveled with, and to feel as though they are part of society, not at the fringes; to believe their opinions count whatever they are." This begs the question of how one determines what views are 'acceptable' -- a challenge that has caught many of the Internet establishment off-guard, as hate speech spilled through filters, private information went who-knows-where, and probes into the 2016 U.S. election revealed that foreign agents used social media to change motivate or influence votes, via fake news targeted to those deemed most susceptible to it. Myers frequently speaks of Countable with reference to two obvious for-profit social media giants (hint: they have ticker symbols like FB and TWTR) . "These companies," he says, "claim to give members the ability to create vast communities -- But they then take that power away on the back end, by charging for access to sections of that community, and allowing third parties to pay to insert new members and messages into your community. "There are no hidden players on Countable," Myers insists. "All the information on Countable is reviewed by editorial committees, which make judgement calls based on principles of fair play. In practice that means, for example, no hate speech or discrimination, respect for human rights, and respectful dialogue. Facts." Myers sees Countable's success relying on its ability to build followings around specific issues, and inform users of the basic facts driving them not alternate facts. In a way, Countables approach is a frontal assault on a problem that a number of non-profits have tried to tackle through electronic petitions. MoveOn.org, has so far the most successful, internet-based, non-profit public advocacy group, followed by Change.org. Both lobby influential politicians and corporate leaders to change their positions on a given issue, or to take a specific action in support of it. MoveOn.org has become a fixture in the advocacy community, claiming to have had a hand in ending the Iraq war and passing healthcare reform. Its website says the organization is the pillar of resistance to Trump. MoveOn has taken flack for what many see as its decidedly left-wing bias and relentless member pitches for donations. Skeptics say Countable (presumably no more than MoveOn or Change.org) offers a band-aid on a gushing wound that Americas institutions are broken, and monied interests so deep that any web-based site or app can only hope to scratch the surface. The American system of government been described as the best of imperfect options," Myers says. "One has to start somewhere, and evolve. Regardless, one would have to be an optimist to start a venture which trades not in consumables but in civic responsibility, and doesn't have the obvious revenue proposition of an Uber. Myers speaks about bringing rationality and facts back to the American politics -- but not in a flag waving way. This is exciting stuff, he says in a voice that sounds pumped up, than prepared for the next bump. "Were out to play our part to bring Democracy and factual debates back to America." In a sign of Countable's early success or Washington's dysfunction, or both, scores of US Representatives (and Senators) are apparently using Countable as a crib sheet prior to their votes. "There are hundreds of Congressional email accounts registered with us, and we get direct feedback from lawmakers themselves," Myers says. "The current system, in which the need to fundraise for the next election dominates lawmakers' schedules, provides little time to keep on top of everything.' If countable can inform America's lawmakers, it should be able to inform the general public as well. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/ethanchorin/2019/01/09/can-next-gen-web-advocacy-bring-washington-to-heel/ |
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