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Is there even one Oilers fan who isn't worried about Peter Chiarelli's next trade? | Yes. Maybe 1 in 30 fans, but thats it, about the same percentage who believe Elvis Presley is still alive. For one thing, the trade could be a whopper with the Oilers giving up a sizeable chunk of their future. All last week Bob Stauffer of the Oilers talked about Edmonton trading away a first round pick to address needs this year. Now we have this tweet of an even more substantial trade from team insider Ryan Rishaug of TSN saying: Oilers organization is on a full court press to find help at forward. Scouts and staff deployed en masse. Cap situation could make it tough, but first round pick, a goaltender, maybe a young developing forward likely all in play. To me that sounds like either goalie Cam Talbot or Mikko Koskinen, plus a first rounder, plus Kailer Yamamoto or Tyler Benson or Cameron Hebig on the move, or maybe even Jesse Puljujarvi depending on the reputation of the player coming in return. That is a lot moving out for a veteran forward, but it might well make sense if the right veteran forward comes back to the Oilers. Koskinen plays tonight (for complete info on tonights game, heres Bruce McCurdy post) so well see if hes anywhere close to coming out of his slump. Koskinen also has a full No Movement Clause, so hed have to agree to a move (which is not at all beyond the realm of possibility). His track record isnt convincing. From the start I had concerns about the Milan Lucic signing, though I also felt it might pay off in the short term. Its now playing out as a GM-firing offence, at least in combination with the Griffin Reinhart for a first and second pick trade. I disliked the Reinhart trade the moment it happened and it certainly doesnt look any better today. All that said, what really has me worried is Chiarellis last two deals. For some reason, he moved out a marginal centre in Ryan Strome for a marginal centre/winger in Ryan Spooner. While Strome was struggling at centre with the Oilers, at least he could kill penalties and play centre in somewhat adequate fashion. Spooner cant kill penalties and hes no centre, which has forced Edmonton to move useful winger Jujhar Khaira to centre where hes not so useful. Then theres the moving out of Drake Caggiula for Brandon Manning. Caggiula had to go as he was leaking Grade A scoring chances and goals against in his own end. Chiarelli said he felt Manning was a better player than Kevin Gravel, but Manning quickly proved otherwise, leaking chances and goals against. Maybe if he spends a month or two in the AHL Manning can get the rust off his game but hes not up to NHL speed right now, which is why his coach cant play him. Edmonton has been out-shot 460-338 (all situations) over the last month. That's 31st in the NHL. Edmonton has been outscored 53-37 (all situations) over the last month. That's tied with Ottawa for 27th in the NHL. This is not a team that should be shopping at deadline prices. So right at the exact moment that Chiarelli had to make a few moves to bolster a team on the cusp of pulling into a playoff spot, he made two moves that has hurt that mission rather than help it. And its not just him on the hook but also his advisors and scouts. I have serious doubts, major worries, huge trepidation. Nonetheless, it appears were about to find out. All that said, if Chiarelli can pull the trigger on a deal that does drive the Oilers into the playoffs, that will be huge for the Oilers franchise. A playoff spot is there for the taking, especially if they can find another useful forward or two who can make a positive contribution. Spooner, Tobias Rieder, Lucic and Kyle Brodziak certainly havent been doing the trick (with Spooner, Rieder and Brodziak all recent acquisitions). The odds are long on Chiarelli getting it right but Im not in that camp that argues the Oilers should do nothing, even as the distance between doing nothing and doing the right thing is a huge expanse. The job of the GM is to improve the team. Thats Chiarellis job. So long as hes GM I expect him to do it. If the Oilers arent going to fire the guy, he should do all he can improve the team. And its not like every move hes made in his time here has been bad. Hes made a number of solid ones. If hes still the GM, its his job to make one more. LEAVINS: 9 Things on a Sunday morning LEAVINS: Oilers outworked by Coyotes in 3-2 loss STAPLES: Oilers go back to old recipe on 1st line McCURDY: McRabbit out of the hat beats Panthers | https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/is-there-even-one-oilers-fan-who-isnt-worried-about-peter-chiarellis-next-trade |
Will Gillette's Ad Campaign On Sexual Harassment And Toxic Masculinity Bring Change? | Gillette released a new ad campaign today, addressing #MeToo and toxic masculinity. The almost two-minute short film version of the ad asks Is this the best a man can get? Rowdy and aggressive boys are depicted as are men sexually harassing women. Male bystanders merely look on or laugh. The ad then shows news clips of #Metoo commentary and Terry Crews asserting, Men need to hold other men accountable. Then, men are depicted differently, intervening to stop the bullying and harassment. Heres what the psychology research says. To understand the problem with Gillette ad, its important to understand the work of Robert Cialdini, a preeminent researcher in the area of influence. His work not only illustrates how to best formulate a message in order to influence behavior, but also how some mixed messages can have unintended effects. This may be problem with Gillettes ad the mixed message. According to Cialdini, there are two norms that motivate people. First, people generally want to gain approval and avoid disapproval. The Gillette ad is clearly disapproving of aggressive behavior and harassment. The problem is with the second norm. This norm suggests that people like to do what is popular. In other words, they like to do what everyone else does. The issue with the Gillette ad is that it pits these two motivations against each other. It suggests that most men are bullies and harassers. If you want to be like everyone else, then you need to be a bully and harasser too. To illustrate how this plays out, Cialdini and colleagues performed an experiment aimed at getting visitors to the Petrified Forest to refrain from stealing the petrified wood. Along with the sign which asked visitors not to remove wood from the forest, the experimenters tried installing a sign which read: Your heritage is being vandalized every day by theft losses of petrified wood of 14 tons a year, mostly a small piece at a time. This warning suggested both that stealing is bad and that most people steal. The amount of wood stolen from the forest actually increased - the exact opposite of the intended effect of the message. Visitors thought it was okay to steal, since many others were clearly stealing as well. As it stand now, the Gillette ad sends a similar mixed message. The message is that aggressive behavior is wrong, and yet many men still partake in this behavior. These two messages may work against each other, and viewers are left subconsciously questioning whether they want to behave correctly or like most other men. The Gillette ad would be much more effective if only the second half of the ad were presented. If only men holding one another accountable were depicted, then the message would be consistent. Gillette disapproves of bullying and harassment, and most men are calling out other men who are bullies or harassers. In reality, most men and boys are not bullies or harassers. The ad says that "some men" are already behaving appropriately, but goes on to say , "some is not enough." This message would be more persuasive if it suggested that most men are already behaving appropriately. According to Adweek, research conducted by Gillettes parent company, Procter and Gamble found the following four attributes define a great man: honesty, moral integrity, hard work and respect for others. And when asked what men could do to be great, the most common answers were being a good father, setting a good example and taking unprompted action to help those in need. By this definition, Gillette could easily suggest that many men are already there. Gillette should be praised for helping to keep these issues in the spotlight and in the public dialog. But, in the future, advertisers should be aware that when we try to mobilize action against the problem by demonstrating the prevalence of the problem, we may undermine the message. Hopefully, most men will want to behave like the men at the end of Gillette's ad and not those at the beginning. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/kimelsesser/2019/01/14/will-gillettes-ad-campaign-on-sexual-harassment-and-toxic-masculinity-bring-change/ |
Did the FBI Overstep by Investigating Trump? | There arent easy answers to this question in this circumstance. Since Goldsmith has already laid out the tentative case for concern about the FBIs actions, its worth considering a similarly tentative case in defense of what the bureau reportedly has done. Its not the FBIs job to contradict what elected officials decide is in the countrys best interests internationally. At the same time, its never in the national interest for an American president to subordinate himself to a foreign government to win the presidency, and then cover it up. A debate over when its appropriate for the FBI to investigate a presidents loyalty to America may seem straightforward to Trumps political opponents. Beyond him, however, theres reason to be uncomfortable. Presidents often make decisions that their critics say will harm American national security: Many on the left opposed George W. Bushs decision to invade Iraq, while most Republicans challenged Barack Obamas diplomatic moves with Cuba and Iran. Trusting FBI officials to determine when a democratically elected president is a threat to American interests should not be done lightly, even if one is confident in the integrity of the bureaus current leadership. The FBI under J. Edgar Hoover, Goldsmith notes, had a history of misusing its counterintelligence functions to quietly shape public policy. Because the president determines the U.S. national security interest and threats against it, at least for the executive branch, there is an argument that it makes no sense for the FBI to open a counterintelligence case against the president premised on his being a threat to the national security, Goldsmith wrote. The president defines what a national security threat is, and thus any action by him cannot be such a threat, at least not for purposes of opening a counterintelligence investigation. Bolstering his analysis here is the nuance and humility with which he approaches it. I am not sure this analysis or this conclusion is rightas I note, the situation [is] unprecedented in many ways, he adds. But I am confident that there is an important Article II question lurking herea reference to the section of the Constitution that sets forth the presidents executive authorityand I suspect this question is what underlies what the Times twice said was a controversy among former FBI and Justice Department officials about the appropriateness of the FBIs step. This is the right approach to thinking about this question. Without our having all of the information that was available to the FBIs senior leadership when they made the call, its hard to definitively gauge its justification. The Times article is curiously silent on who exactly ordered the investigation, and whether senior Justice Department officials like Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein were aware of it in advance. Muellers eventual report may yet shed more light on this, and historians will be even better positioned to weigh the evidence. Until then, there are some basic principles that can guide our analysis. | https://newrepublic.com/article/152896/fbi-overstep-investigating-trump |
Is Netflix phenomenon Marie Kondo most adorable or most annoying? | Open this photo in gallery Tidying Up with Marie Kondo. Denise Crew/Netflix/Netflix Listen, you have too much stuff. I have too much stuff. Were all embarrassed about it. Its like being caught by David Suzuki when youre throwing an old toaster into the Green Bin. You could try explaining the other bins are full and besides, somebody must have a good-paying job extracting old toasters and such from the Green Bin stuff. It wouldnt fly. Suzuki would just give you this look. You know the look the disapproving stare disguised behind a slight smile, as if he was seeing you as a Lucifer about to ruin this planet and others nearby with your wanton wickedness. The same look emanates from Netflixs newest sensation, one Marie Kondo. But with less authentic disapproval. Story continues below advertisement Tidying Up with Marie Kondo (now streaming on Netflix Canada) has the chattering classes chattering more than usual. And I might be the last columnist on this benighted planet to weigh in. Were talking cultural phenomenon here. Were also talking about a confidence trick. Flimflammery is the word for it. Kondo, presented as adorable, might be the most deeply annoying person on TV. If youve been lucky enough to escape the presence and influence of Marie Kondo until now, pull up one of those chairs you dont really need and Ill tell you. Open this photo in gallery Kondo is a 34-year-old Japanese organizing consultant who has written bestselling books. Denise Crew/Netflix/Netflix Kondo is a 34-year-old Japanese organizing consultant. Shes written bestselling books. The Netflix show is about decluttering and how that can make you superhappy and less stressed. This involves thanking the house for sheltering its occupant. Also, thanking your clothes for being clothes and determining if said clothes spark joy. If so, the clothes are folded in a very particular way, into rectangles that end up standing upright in your clothes drawers, arranged like a rainbow. By the way, Kondo takes a dim view of the books you have in your house. CNN described Kondo rather cattily as a tiny garbage fairy for messy people, but its an apt description. The pseudo-mysticism of pseudo-praying for guidance about your pile of stuff amounts to scattering fairy dust in order to tidy up. There are no fairies. There is no such thing as fairy dust. Its all delusional. Also, Kondo doesnt actually know how to fold clothes. Not real clothes, anyway. Yours truly. My first paying job as a teenager was in the menswear section at Switzers department store in Dublin. I learned to fold a suit, trousers and other items. If I didnt get it right, a man who had 50 years experience would sigh and make me do it again and again. Yes, I am now that annoying middle-aged man who leans over the counter at Joe Fresh and folds the garment Ive purchased before it goes in the bag. Sometimes the young staffer says thanks. Sometimes they gaze at me the way CBC executives gaze at me. Open this photo in gallery Marie Kondo with her interpreter in a home. Denise Crew/Netflix/Netflix While were at it and Ill stop talking about myself soon Im a dab hand at ironing. Love doing it. Order from chaos. Show me damp cotton and Ill make it crisp, and then fold it properly. Once when I was obliged to return from L.A. on the red-eye flight, and unwilling to just crash into bed, I spent the entire day ironing. By nightfall every darn thing in the house from the curtains to the cats pyjamas, was ironed. A great days work I recall with fondness. Thing is, many of the people Kondo encounters on her show she comes to peoples homes shyly, accompanied by an interpreter dont seem familiar with ironing, folding or even doing laundry in the traditional manner. They are easy marks for the con job that transpires. Story continues below advertisement Story continues below advertisement Sensitivity to joy is what Kondo talks about a lot. This is sanctimonious nonsense. It adds fake piety to the issue of having too much stuff. Further, it makes the matter of tidying up and organizing an act of narcissism. Its all about you, your feelings. And, as David Suzuki has been telling us for decades, its not about you. Its about the entirety of nature, other people and the human race. Open this photo in gallery The Netflix show is about decluttering and how that can make you superhappy and less stressed. Denise Crew/Netflix/Netflix When you let go of an item, you must thank it, Kondo says. Well, wed let go of it faster if letting go was not a time-consuming dirge of regret that included thanking an inanimate object. And the issue of books is another irritating part of the Kondo method. If the books dont spark joy, they should go. Thats a strange and unviable approach to books and literature and it underscores the essential materialism and narcissism that are key elements of Kondos approach. Shes selling a fantasy, one made more palatable and intriguing by larding it with prayers and the tinsel of thank-yous to objects. Now its true that the popularity of Kondos tidying regime has led to a surge of donations of clothes to charities. That is actually the one adorable part of it all. See, I have too much stuff and you have too much stuff. Giving it away to the less fortunate isnt about loving yourself and your objects that spark joy. Its just the right thing to do. | https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/television/article-is-netflix-phenomenon-marie-kondo-most-adorable-or-most-annoying/ |
How tall is Kyler Murray? | There's another height debate brewing around a potential NFL draft pick from Oklahoma. Last year, the focus was on Baker Mayfield. This year, the attention has turned to former Sooners quarterback Kyler Murray. This season's Heisman Trophy winner, Murray, declared for the NFL draft Monday. STAPLES: Kyler Murray Has Two Sports Hanging on His Unique NFL Draft Decision The announcement sparked added intrigue because Murray was selected by the Oakland A's with the No. 9 pick in last June's MLB draft. Rumors have swirled on whether Murray would declare for the draft or play for the A's. While Google lists Murray as 5'11'', the Sooners listed him at 5'10''. VRENTAS: Baker Mayfield, Tua Tagovailoa and the New Quarterback Mold Oklahoma's assistant athletic director Mike Houck tweeted about the matter Monday after writing that he's heard a lot of debate between television personalities. Houck tweeted, "Before the season, our strength staff measured him at 5-9 7/8 in socks." Mayfield is 6' 5/8" and was drafted by the Browns with the No. 1 overall pick in last year's draft. | https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/01/14/how-tall-kyler-murray |
Which FAANG Stock Has the Best Earnings Chart? | Earnings season officially kicks off this week with the big banks, led by JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America. There are over 65 companies expected to report this week. But one of the FAANG stocks, Netflix, also reports earnings this week, kicking off the FAANG earnings bonanza. Investors havent paid as much attention to the earnings miss or beat with the FAANG stocks as they have with other companies because it was all about revenue growth, not the earnings side. 1. Netflix NFLX has only missed twice in 5 years. For any company, that would be an impressive track record. Shares sold off to end 2018 but have had a big bounce off those lows. 2. Facebook FB has only missed once since 2016 so it has really turned around its earnings beat track record over the last 3 years. But even still, the shares took a beating in 2018 on fears about the handling of privacy issues and worries about user and advertising growth. 3. Amazon AMZN makes it known it doesnt care about beating or missing the analyst estimate. But, since AWS, it has turned it around on the beats side and has put together more beats than misses. Additionally, the last 5 quarters have seen some enormous earnings beats. 4. Apple AAPL has a great track record of beating with just one miss in the last 5 years but it did have to issue its first warning in decades to start the year. Estimates had already been cut ahead of the warning, but afterwards, they came fast and furious. Eleven estimates have now been cut for fiscal 2019 in the last month. 5. Alphabet GOOGL is another FAANG that doesnt have a good track record of beating but the Street hasnt cared either. But it has strung together 3 beats in a row. [In full disclosure, the author of this article owns shares of FB, GOOGL and AMZN in her personal portfolio.] Today's Stocks from Zacks' Hottest Strategies It's hard to believe, even for us at Zacks. But while the market gained +21.9% in 2017, our top stock-picking screens have returned +115.0%, +109.3%, +104.9%, +98.6%, and +67.1%. And this outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon. Over the years it has been remarkably consistent. From 2000 - 2017, the composite yearly average gain for these strategies has beaten the market more than 19X over. Maybe even more remarkable is the fact that we're willing to share their latest stocks with you without cost or obligation. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research | https://news.yahoo.com/faang-stock-best-earnings-chart-230611632.html |
Is Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited Stock a Bargain? | What happened December turned out to be a historically turbulent month for big-pharma stocks, and generic-drug king Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NYSE: TEVA) was no exception. In fact, Teva's shares fell by a whopping 28.4% over the course of December, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Teva, like most of its biopharma peers, sank because of the market's overall downturn last month, as well as Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ) so-called baby powder controversy. Person in a suit holding a toy bear in one hand and a toy bull in the other. More Image Source: Getty Images. So what The fact that Teva's shares were punished mightily for J&J's troubles -- even though this alleged scandal has no bearing on Teva's outlook whatsoever -- shows just how moody the market was last month. In turn, bargain hunters have apparently started to take note of this unwarranted sell-off, causing the drugmaker's shares to rise by a healthy 19% over the first two weeks of the new year. Despite this double-digit rally in early 2019, however, Teva's shares are still among the cheapest in the large-cap pharma space. At current levels, for instance, Teva's stock sports a rock-bottom price-to-sales ratio of 1.02. The answer to this question is arguably a resounding yes. Teva's new management team has done a stellar job at trimming the fat and getting the company's debt problem under control over the last year. These efforts have thus attracted sizable investments from blue-chip investors, such as Warren Buffett. All told, Teva's days of cellar dwelling seem to be close to an end, making now a perfect time to buy this deeply undervalued pharma stock. More From The Motley Fool George Budwell owns shares of Johnson & Johnson. The Motley Fool owns shares of Johnson & Johnson and has the following options: short January 2019 $140 calls on Johnson & Johnson. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. | https://news.yahoo.com/teva-pharmaceutical-industries-limited-stock-230000691.html |
How Do Gravity Waves Affect Mass? | originally appeared on Quora: the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world. Answer by Kirsten Hacker, post-doc Accelerator Physics, on Quora: When I see a question on gravity waves, Emily Dickensons poem often comes to mind. Tell all the truth but tell it slant Success in Circuit lies Too bright for our infirm Delight The Truth's superb surprise As Lightning to the Children eased With explanation kind The Truth must dazzle gradually Or every man be blind The reason for this is that everybody approaches the topic with a different angle and it becomes very hard to figure out who is correct but speaking in an obscure language and who is incorrect but speaking in a popular language. When the tower of Babel gets high, everyone starts speaking different languages. With this in mind, I feel invited to approach the topic figuratively with the most painfully literal tools in my arsenal: Archimedes bathtub stories. A gravity wave is a change in gravity as a function of time and space. The amount of mass would change as a function of space and time, but if every mass in a system changes at precisely the same rate, no single mass would have any ability to detect any change because a measurement of mass is relative. To motivate intuition, Ill translate the question into something more tactile: Q: A bubble held underwater in Archimedes bathtub is slowly squeezed by a pressure-wave. At the same time, short, transverse waves reflect off of the compressed bubble and experience a slight phase shift as a result of the pressure wave. A: If the mass of the bubble is defined by the motion of the particles in the bubble relative to the water, then pressurization produces a change in mass through temperature change and rotation change. The phase shift of the reflected waves is sensitive to how quickly a change in bubble diameter becomes a change in temperature and rotation because increased internal motion would tend to counteract the compression. If there is a significant delay between the compression and the increase in internal motion, then the reflected transverse waves will measure the pressure-wave. If there is not a significant delay, they will not. This picture could be redefined such that the bubble is the earth and the long, slow pressure wave is a gravity wave coming in from deep space. If gravity waves change the relative masses of the earth and the moon, then we would detect small changes in the phase of light waves reflected off of the moon - not because the distance to the center of the moon changed, but because the moon itself changed in diameter. Unfortunately, due to the divergence of a laser beam and the precision requirements, this isnt an experimentally feasible measurement. Meanwhile, LIGO attempts to measure gravitational-wave-induced phase shifts produced by reflections between earthbound mirrors, but This change is really too small of a quantity to measure. The phase shift is supposed to be a fraction of the width of a proton - or the width of a hair relative to the distance to Alpha Centauri and back. We have no experimental knowledge of how atomic dimensions within mirrors respond to changes in gravity and we have no direct knowledge of how gravitational waves couple to individual particles. (note that I used the words changes and couple to because we are not concerned with steady states.) That is probably the reason that LIGO avoids framing their experiment in terms of atomic contraction as I have done and instead they tell us that space stretches and contracts at different rates for gravitational and light waves. I wholly disapprove of this manner of speech because it invites sloppy thinking. One can describe space as a coordinate system against which matter moves, stretches, and contracts, or one can describe space as something which contracts and stretches when waves travel through it. LIGO has chosen the latter convention and it is bad because it avoids any description of a physical mechanism. You cant. The bubbles in Archimedes bathtub make this clear. The original Michelson-Morely experiment made this clear as well. I would believe in LIGO if there were an experiment running in parallel which used a completely different mechanism to measure the same effect, but the other options are no more promising than LIGO. You could try to measure a relative change in mass via tiny temperature changes or by counting the number of particles popping into and out of existence, but we cant get enough statistics over a short enough time step to measure this with the required precision. This question originally appeared on Quora - the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world. You can follow Quora on Twitter, Facebook, and Google+. More questions: | https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2019/01/14/how-do-gravity-waves-affect-mass/ |
When It Comes to Rates, What Are Central Banks Going to Do Next? | (Bloomberg) -- Follow the latest global economic news and analyis @economics. Central banks enter the new year under pressure from investors to rethink just how aggressive they can be hiking interest rates. A slowdown in the world economy, the trade war and skittish financial markets are forcing policy makers including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to express fresh caution about their scope for tightening monetary policy. The Peoples Bank of China is also pledging support for its economy. That outlook marks a change from last year where a majority of central banks raised rates and the European Central Bank ceased buying assets. Of course, if economies weather the latest challenges, policy makers may need to rethink anew. What Our Economists Say: Heightened uncertainty about the trajectory for policy normalization and reduced divergence between the Fed and the rest are set to characterize the 2019 central bank outlook. Tom Orlik Here is Bloomberg Economics quarterly review at 24 of the top central banks, which together set policy for almost 90 percent of the global economy. We outline the issues they face in 2019 and how they might respond. U.S. Federal Reserve Current federal funds rate (upper bound): 2.5% Forecast for end of 2019: 3% The Fed spooked markets at the end of 2018 with a projection for two rate hikes in 2019, based on a more optimistic outlook for the economy than investors held. Policy makers pointed to forecasts continued strong growth and jobs gains, while investors fretted over slowing global growth and the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China. Contributing to the unease, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 21 that President Donald Trump had discussed the possibility of firing Fed Chairman Powell out of frustration over the Feds gradual tightening campaign. Powell has since dialed back his message, assuring markets he would be flexible and patient. Many Fed watchers now believe U.S. policy makers are unlikely to raise rates before June unless data surprises to the upside. What Our Economists Say: The Feds communication campaign preaching policy patience calmed the markets down. Yet, just a little patience will not alter the Fed's hiking bias. The real fed funds rate barely crossed into positive territory in the fourth quarter after sitting in the red since the Great Recession. There is ample room for the Fed to continue removing policy accommodation, especially if the pace of core inflation picks up above the central banks target. We expect two rate hikes in 2019. Yelena Shulyatyeva European Central Bank Current deposit rate: -0.4% Forecast for end of 2019: -0.25% The euro area reached a turning point for monetary stimulus when the ECB capped quantitative easing at the end of 2018. A slowing economy and sub-target inflation means the central bank will stay supportive. It intends to keep interest rates at record lows at least through the summer of this year. Economists predict a hike late in the year, though investors dont expect one until 2020. Much will depend on how the 19-nation economy copes with risks from protectionism and volatility in emerging and financial markets. Mario Draghis term expires in October, meaning he may leave without raising rates as president. Jockeying for his job has already started, with a decision by governments likely after European Parliament elections in May. What Our Economists Say: Inflation has plunged on oil costs, posing a risk to pay settlements, and the economy has slowed. These developments call for policy caution from the ECB. Assuming growth stabilizes around trend and President Draghi passes the baton to a continuity candidate, we expect a hike to the deposit rate to come in December 2020. Still, the risks are skewed toward a delayed liftoff. Jamie Murray Bank of Japan Current policy-rate balance: -0.1% Forecast for end of 2019: -0.1% The BOJ faces a huge test in 2019 as inflation falls further below its 2 percent target, exposing the limits of its massive monetary stimulus program. Some economists see a risk of the core consumer price index falling below zero as cheaper energy and mobile-phone charges undermine BOJ policies. Januarys flash crash in the currency market, which brought a sharp and unwelcome strengthening in the yen, underscores how much is beyond the central bank's control. Story continues While stimulus continues to weigh down profits at commercial banks and distorts the bond market, a majority of BOJ watchers expect Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to keep his current yield-curve settings in place at least through the end of 2019, with the short-term rate locked at minus 0.1 percent and the 10-year bond yield target at around zero percent. Bond purchases are likely to be pared back further, while the BOJs presence in the market for exchange-traded funds will depend on whether stocks need propping up. Tweaks to reduce policy side effects are possible, but on balance the BOJ is expected to drift further from its peers as they chart a return to pre-crisis policies. The looming hike to the sales tax may also complicate matters. What Our Economists Say: The BOJ will need to maintain easing in 2019, with inflation weak and growth under pressure. The threat of renewed yen strength as U.S. Treasury yields retreat will also keep it on guard. That said, sustaining stimulus may grow more challenging. Financial imbalances are increasing one reason to pull back. Whats more, lower U.S. yields are putting downward pressure on JGB yields and the further they fall, the less the need for BOJ purchases. A challenge ahead for Governor Kuroda will be to finding a balance between two camps on the policy board the reflationists, and those more concerned about the risks from the BOJs policy. Yuki Masujima Bank of England Current bank rate: 0.75% Forecast for end of 2019: 1% Mark Carney is starting his final full year as Bank of England governor before he leaves in January 2020. He can expect the central banks outlook to continue to be dominated by Brexit, especially after the U.K. formally leaves the European Union on March 29. As the deadline nears and the chance of a chaotic exit rises, investors have bet therell be no rate increases in the next 12 months, though economists foresee at least one being squeezed in. Carney has warned that a no-deal Brexit could drive up inflation that requires higher borrowing costs. If the government can get a deal signed in time, the market outlook could quickly be rewritten. What Our Economists Say: With less than three months until the U.K., Brexit uncertainty is at fever pitch. The Bank of England won't lift rates in that environment. We remain of the view that Brexit will be orderly. If it is, the central bank is likely to waste no time lifting rates -- the first hike is likely in May and another should follow in November. Dan Hanson Bank of Canada Current overnight lending rate: 1.75% Forecast for end of 2019: 2.25% The Bank of Canada is sticking to its view that more interest rates increases will be needed on top of five hikes over the past two years, but there seems to be a lot less urgency than there was a few months ago. Canadas oil-producing regions were hit hard by last years slide in crude prices, leading the BOC to sharply mark down the near-term outlook for the economy at its latest rate decision. It also softened its tone on future moves, saying they would only happen over time. Still, the soft patch in growth is seen as a temporary one, and policy makers expect the economy to rebound later this year putting them back on the hiking path. What Our Economists Say: Increasing global risks and slumping energy prices should keep the Bank of Canada on hold for all of 2019. The housing market and consumer spending may be moderating more than expected and wage growth has softened recently. This reduces the urgency for the central bank to stay ahead of inflationary pressures resulting from strong economic growth and a historically tight labor market last year. Tim Mahedy Peoples Bank of China Current 1-year best lending rate: 4.35% Forecast for end of 2019: 4.35% So far it has held off cutting its benchmark rate, but the PBOC is expected to further ease monetary policy in 2019 as the economy faces a deepening slowdown and the trade conflict with the U.S. The central bank said itll keep monetary policy prudent while striking an appropriate balance between tightening and loosening, implying a slightly looser stance than 2018 as it ratchets up targeted stimulus. If the Fed turns more dovish, the PBOC will face less downward pressure on the currency, simplifying its policy considerations. What Our Economists Say: The PBoC announced on Jan. 4 to cut the reserve requirement ratio by 100 basis points, to be implemented in two steps. The central bank also recently widened the company coverage of its targeted RRR cuts. In the PBoCs annual work meeting, the central bank emphasized to keep liquidity reasonably ample and market interest rates reasonably stable. The central bank is expected to combine economy-wide RRR cuts with measures aimed at unclogging the channels for monetary policy transmission, particularly in supporting small and private firms. Chang Shu Reserve Bank of India Current repo rate: 6.5% Forecast for end of 2019: 6.5% Indias central bank under a new governor Shaktikanta Das is likely to prepare markets for an interest rate cut as inflation undershoots the 4 percent medium term target and growth slows. Weakening consumption due to tighter financial conditions, uncertainty over investments ahead of a general election in spring this year and risks to exports from global headwinds are likely to see the Reserve Bank under Das, adopt a more dovish stance on monetary policy in the coming months. Investors in the swap markets are pricing virtually no change in the repo rate, a far cry from early October when they were factoring in nearly 100 basis points of hikes to 7.5 percent. That is partly because oil, Indias biggest import, has slumped and the rupee, Asias worst performing major currency in 2018, has stabilized. Along with expectations that the Fed may pause in its rate tightening cycle, external risks to the economy have receded, prompting the central bank to train its attention in domestic factors like slowing growth and inflation. What Our Economists Say: The Reserve Bank of Indias current stance of calibrated tightening increasingly at odds with falling inflation and slowing growth is no longer tenable. With inflation continuing to undershoot its target, the central bank is likely to veer policy towards a pro-growth stance ahead. We expect the RBI to deliver a 25 basis points rate cut during its February review, reverting its policy stance to neutral. We expect the new governor to correct the undue hawkish bias of the central bank, under his predecessor Urjit Patel, in favor of a more data-dependent approach in 2019. Abhishek Gupta Central Bank of Brazil Current Selic target rate: 6.5% Forecast for end of 2019: 7.25% Central bank chief nominee Roberto Campos Neto will be in a comfortable position when he takes over the reins of the the monetary authority, following his expected Senate confirmation in February, under the government of Jair Bolsonaro. Inflation is running below target and the benchmark interest rate stands at an all-time low of 6.5 percent. Following a series of faster-than-forecast deflation data, analysts have been cutting their outlook for the benchmark interest rate. Economists surveyed by the central bank now expect the so-called Selic rate to rise a mere half a percentage point this year and some even think it may remain unchanged throughout 2019. For 2020, it is expected to increase another percentage point, depending on how much traction Brazils economic recovery gets under Bolsonaros planned structual reforms. What Our Economists Say: The coast is clear for BCB to hold the target overnight rate at 6.5% for the time being, as inflation remains tamed and risks are tilted towards lower growth. The election of market-friendly President Bolsonaro also helped as it removed tail risks in economic policy -- prior to election, rate markets were pricing in fear of a currency meltdown and fiscal disarray. Although we do expect a gradual normalization to start at end-Q3, we do not rule out stable rates through end-2019. A few factors might weigh on the near-term prospects for rates in Brazil: developments in the global environment; progress (or lack thereof) on the reform front; and, as usual, eventual surprises on growth or inflation. Finally, a new BCB Governor takes office next February: the incoming governor is market-friendly, but it is too soon to tell whether he will have the same cautious approach to policymaking as his predecessor. Adriana Dupita Bank of Russia Current key rate: 7.75% Forecast for end of 2019: 7.5% The Bank of Russia has a history of hawkishness, with both rate hikes in the last three meetings surprising most forecasters. Now, Russia is facing short-term inflation risks thanks to a VAT increase that kicked in on New Years Day and the ruble is taking a pounding along with the oil price. In a move that looks like shooting the messenger, President Vladimir Putin signed a law in December that bans currency-exchange offices from displaying rates to passersby. But perhaps the biggest uncertainty in Russia is the threat of further U.S. sanctions. With tensions flaring again over the arrest of an American in Moscow on spying charges, geopolitics is never far from the central bank's thoughts. Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at her final 2018 press conference that a return to rate cuts will only be possible at the end of this year, while internal and external factors may encourage Russias cautious policy makers to continue to tighten. What Our Economists Say: The Bank of Russia begins 2019 with its finger on the trigger. Policy is already tight enough, after last year's hawkish turn. Yet inflation is on a steep upward trajectory, and the central bank won't tolerate surprises. Another rate hike could come in February or March if the acceleration proves unexpectedly swift or if fresh sanctions rattle the ruble. Easing could resume once temporary influences begin to fade, but thats unlikely to happen until the end of the year. Scott Johnson South African Reserve Bank Current repo average rate: 6.75% Forecast for end of 2019: 7% The South African Reserve Banks November rate increase may give it room to support economic growth by holding the benchmark rate at 6.75 percent until at least the third quarter before it tightens further. While the central banks quarterly projection model prices in four more rate increases of 25 basis points each by the end of 2020 and inflation was at an 18-month high in November, price-growth expectations cooled since the middle of December as a stronger rand and the drop in oil brought down energy costs. The composition of the Reserve Banks Monetary Policy Committee will change this year. What Our Economists Say: A stronger rand and lower oil prices will depress South Africas inflation in the first half of 2019. This will weaken the case for tightening monetary policy. A new configuration of the monetary policy committee following the resignation of deputy governor Francois Groepe and the expected addition of one or two members also injects uncertainty into the rates outlook. Mark Bohlund Banco de Mexico Current overnight rate: 8.25% Forecast for end of 2019: 8% Mexicos central bank is about to undergo a transformation as two new members tapped by leftist President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador are set to join the five-person board. While not enough to shift the majority away from its hawkish voting pattern Banxicos been raising rates for three years now the discussion within the central bank will likely become far more divided once the two members are ratified by the Senate as early as this month. Banxico will still have to contend with inflation thats hovered stubbornly above the 2 percent to 4 percent target range, along with new challenges posed by an administration thats planning to spend far more on social programs. Thats led some economists to see rates rising this year to a record high from its current 8.25 percent. For now, the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey shows rates stabilizing until they slowly come down starting in the second half of the year. What Our Economists Say: The central bank will keep tight monetary conditions. Inflation and inflation expectations remain high and together with risks of second round effects from supply shocks and accumulated peso depreciation imply additional rate hikes cannot be ruled out. The two board members appointed by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador this year are unlikely to share the concerns about economic policies proposed by the new government that contributed to rate hikes late in 2018. The remaining three board members will keep the majority. Bloomberg economic expects Banxico to maintain interest rates at 8.25% until late in the second half when lower inflation and weaker activity could allow to start easing monetary conditions. Felipe Hernandez Bank Indonesia Current 7-day reverse repo rate: 6% Forecast for end of 2019: 6.38% Bank Indonesia was one of the most aggressive central banks last year, raising rates six times for a total of 175 basis points as it sought to counter an emerging-market rout and protect a sliding currency. The rupiah has since recovered from a two-decade low, and while the central bank has made clear its prepared to take further action on rates in a bid to keep pace with the Fed, expectations are the tightening cycle may be coming to an end.With a presidential election set for April, cost of living is set to be a key focus for the government, putting pressure on the central bank to keep a lid on inflation. While inflation has been relatively subdued and well within the target band of 2.5 percent to 4.5 percent, the election could add to price pressures. The other key consideration is the current account deficit which leaves Indonesia vulnerable to outflows should sentiment dive again, and which has seen the government taking steps to curb imports and boost exports. What Our Economists Say: Bank Indonesias work to stabilize the rupiah may be complete, having lifted its policy rate by 175 bps in 2018. In December, it appeared more inclined to lean on direct intervention in the currency market, rather than tighten further. Whats more, the Fed subsequently signaled greater flexibility on policy in 2019. Even so, Bank Indonesia is likely to retain a tightening bias until government measures to slash the current account deficit bear fruit. The presidential election in April also looms, which prolongs investor uncertainty. In a Goldilocks scenario where the U.S. and China cement a trade deal, Bank Indonesia might be able to unwind some of its rate hikes before the end of the year. Tamara Henderson Central Bank of Turkey Current 1-week repo rate: 24% Forecast for end of 2019: 19.5% Turkeys consumer inflation rate is finally dropping after the immediate impact of last years currency slump began to dissipate. But it still remains more than four times the five percent official target, and the slowdown in prices isnt as fast as the collapse in private consumption, typically the biggest driver of growth in the Middle Easts largest economy. The combination of a high inflation rate and severe economic slowdown leaves the Turkish central bank in an awkward place. On the one hand, it must keep monetary policy tight to maintain the price trajectory it targets for this year. On the other, gross-domestic figures for the third quarter of 2018 show the economy could be in need of some kind of stimulus. The slump in activity spells trouble for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ahead of municipal elections in March, but there is little monetary policy action could achieve in such a short period of time. Any possible steps to ease access to liquidity will be critical to the fate of the lira and to Turkeys corporate sector, which relied heavily on FX financing and is now struggling to service foreign debt after the lira's collapse. What Our Economists Say: The central bank has restored some credibility with an aggressive 625 basis-point hike in the repo rate in September. The lira has strengthened since then, after a tumultuous summer, and lower oil prices helped inflation to fall from its October peak. Assuming no further meltdown in the currency, we expect 550 basis points of rate cuts in 2019 as inflation continues to moderate. Ziad Daoud Central Bank of Nigeria Current central bank rate: 14% Forecast for end of 2019: 14% Nigerias central bank has kept its key rate at a record high 14 percent since July 2016 and indicated it will maintain a tight monetary policy stance to tame above-target inflation. Price risks stemming from increased spending ahead of the February election and the possible deregulation of fuel prices could trigger an interest-rate increase in March. The central bank may see a change in leadership this year when Governor Godwin Emefieles first five-year term ends in June. CBN governors and deputies are appointed by the president and can serve a maximum of two five-year terms, but traditionally only serve one. A new governor is unlikely to alter the policy trajectory significantly, meaning a continuation of existing policies to tame price growth, defend the naira and build up reserves. What Our Economists Say: The nairas peg to the U.S. dollar is likely to return as the main priority of the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2019 as oil revenue and foreign investment dips. A hike in the policy rate is possible in 2019 but the CBN may opt for other ways to maintain the peg, such as open market operations. We do not expect Godwin Emefiele to continue after his current term as CBN governor end in June. Mark Bohlund Bank of Korea Current base rate: 1.75% Forecast for end of 2019: 1.75% The Bank of Korea raised its key interest rate for the first time in a year in November. While a majority of economists forecast another 0.25 percentage point increase in 2019, this isnt assured and some have suggested that a cut is possible if economic conditions deteriorate. Governor Lee Ju-yeol and his policy board continue to weigh competing concerns that will become increasingly challenging this year. Accommodative policy is needed to spur sputtering growth and inflation that remains below the 2 percent target. Yet a widening interest rate gap with the U.S. creates the risk of capital outflows and counts in favor of tighter policy. Record household debt is another thorny problem for the central bank, which must not push borrowers into trouble by raising rates too much while being sure not to encourage too many new loans with cheap money. What Our Economists Say: The Bank of Korea is likely to keep its policy rate on hold at 1.75% through 2019, in our view. The central bank hiked by 25 basis points in November 2018 in a bid to reduce financial imbalances and rebuild policy space. The year ahead looks more challenging, with heightened external risks and muted inflation likely to keep the BOK on an extended pause. Two things though, could shift the calculus: any changes in the pace of Fed tightening, and any shifts in U.S.-China trade relations. Justin Jimenez Reserve Bank of Australia Current cash rate target: 1.5% Forecast for end of 2019: 1.5% The RBA is likely to remain on the sidelines for the first half of this year, but its patience will be tested. After a two-month hiatus, its next rate decision in February will be closely watched for comments on whats fast becoming a key worry: plunging property prices. A 11.1 percent slide in the price of Sydney housing from the peak peak helped turn around market bets on the next policy move, with traders now seeing more chance of a cut than a hike this year. Australian households are among the worlds most indebted, and the RBAs worried that a prolonged housing slump will drag on consumption. Still, this is somewhat uncharted territory: house prices are falling while the economy is still growing just above its speed limit and the jobless rate is near the lowest in almost seven years. That helps explain why the RBA as recently as December reiterated that the next rate move is still likely to be up. What Our Economists Say: Risks to Australias economy and monetary policy in the last two months became two-way, with the drop in house prices becoming much more pronounced. Even so, more recent positive external developments Chinas further stimulus, the Feds greater flexibility and signs of progress on trade between the U.S. and China should help stabilize sentiment without the RBA having to act. Lending rules were also eased from Jan. 1. By year-end, we expect remaining hurdles for the start of gradual policy normalization to be cleared. In particular, the investment climate should be less challenging and wage growth is likely to have ticked higher. A rate hike as soon as December cannot be ruled out. Tamara Henderson Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority Current repo rate: 3% Forecast for end of 2019: 3.5% Saudi Arabias currency peg to the dollar and the fact that its main export, crude oil, is priced in dollars, means that its interest rate tends to closely track the Fed. Though the kingdoms economic recovery remains fragile, the central bank has given little indication it would change course this year. What Our Economists Say: The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority doesnt have major decisions to make. The currency peg to the dollar means that interest rates closely follow the Feds. They raised the repo rate by 100 basis points in 2018. Another 75 basis points of rate hikes are expected in 2019. Ziad Daoud Central Bank of Argentina Current target: to freeze the expansion of monetary aggregates Argentinas central bank no longer sets inflation goals and now lets daily bond auctions determine its benchmark rate. Under the terms of a revised agreement with the International Monetary Fund, policy makers led by Guido Sandleris are targetting monetary aggregates in a bid to freeze the expansion of pesos in the economy. The new strategy amounted to a sharp monetary tightening, as Argentinas money supply was expanding at about 2 percent a month before the policy change. The benchmark interest rate was at a world-high 60 percent. Since then, inflation expectations have somewhat moderated but still at very high levels: consumer prices are expected to increase 28.7 percent over the next 12 months. What Our Economists Say: BCRA no longer sets the interest rate, but it has a critical role in creating conditions for markets to lower the near-60% Leliq. So far, the institution delivered on its ambitious plan to keep monetary base stable, and we expect it to remain committed to this policy. ARS's non-intervention zone is set to increase at a slower pace, which can help bring down inflation expectations (still under pressure). Should the ARS move below the non-intervention zone, BCRA is allowed to purchase dollars, and such non-sterilized intervention can lead to lower market-based rates. This benign cycle is, however, rather dependent on both international market conditions (out of BCRA's control) and the prospects of fiscal policy (influenced by the forthcoming Presidential election in October). Hence, even if BCRA plays by the book, volatility may be high in both currency and interest rates. Adriana Dupita Swiss National Bank Current Libor target rate: -0.75% Forecast for end of 2019: -0.50% Since shocking markets in January 2015 by abolishing its minimum exchange rate, the Swiss National Bank has kept policy on hold, sticking with the lowest rates of any major central bank and a pledge to intervene in currency markets if necessary. Although the economy grew at an unusually strong pace in 2018, the franc also rallied against the euro on the back of investor unease about Italy and other political turmoil. With the ECB pledging to keep borrowing costs in the neighboring euro zone at rock bottom through next summer, the SNB is very likely to stick with current policy for the foreseeable future to avoid exacerbating pressure on the franc. President Thomas Jordan and his colleagues have also grown more dovish on the inflation outlook, giving them ample space to keep policy accommodative. Sveriges Riksbank Current repo rate: -0.25% Forecast for end of 2019: 0.13% Swedens central bank ended last year by raising its benchmark rate for the first time in seven years. With consumer price growth and inflation expectations solidly back at the 2 percent target, the majority of the governing board members felt comfortable enough to take another step in removing the record stimulus unleashed over the past four years. The central bank now anticipates that it will raise rates again in the second half of this year and then two times next year. But investors such as Pimco and the major Swedish banks are doubtful it will be able to pull off an exit as economic headwinds build. Governor Stefan Ingves and his colleagues will also over the coming meetings need to decide on whether to keep reinvesting its massive balance sheet after a June end date. Norges Bank Current deposit rate: 0.75% Forecast for end of 2019: 1.25% Norways central bank is preparing the next step in a gradual shift away from extreme monetary stimulus, predicting a second interest rate increase again in March. After suffering through the worst oil crisis in a generation, the economy of western Europes largest exporter of crude is now growing above trend. Petroleum investments are expected to boost the economy this year with unemployment holding steady at 4 percent. But the recent swoon in oil prices and the global slowdown could keep policy makers in Oslo from not straying too far ahead of their colleagues in Frankfurt and Stockholm. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Current cash rate: 1.75% Forecast for end of 2019: 1.75% Governor Adrian Orr remains firmly in wait-and-see mode and there is little prospect of a change in stance this quarter. The economy has cooled and inflation remains benign, supporting Orrs call for rates to be held at a record low well into 2020. While data are sufficiently healthy to make the chances of a rate cut look remote, further policy easing cannot be entirely ruled out. Orr has shown himself to be growth-focused a dove in comparison to his hawkish predecessor. As well as those on the international horizon, downside risks include the RBNZs plan to force banks to hold bigger capital buffers, which could slow lending. What Our Economists Say: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is signaling steady interest rates through this year and into 2020. The RBNZs neutral policy bias reflects both upside and downside risks to growth and inflation. Even so, keeping the policy setting at an expansionary level for a considerable period signals greater concern about growth than inflation, in our view. Inflation in 3Q moved toward the center of the 1-3% target, but growth through the third quarter was well below the Reserve Bank's estimate of potential. Private investment has stalled in line with the souring in business confidence, though household spending has picked up. We expect the RBNZ to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 1.75% in 2019. Tamara Henderson National Bank of Poland Current cash rate: 1.5% Forecast for end of 2019: 1.5% Polish interest rates, on hold at a record-low of 1.5 percent since May 2015, probably wont be changed until the end of the term of this Monetary Policy Council in 2022. Central bank Governor Adam Glapinski revealed that scenario in early January, extending the longest ever pause in rates past the earlier projected horizon for the end of the decade. Despite annual gross domestic product growth of above 5 percent and rapidly rising wages, inflation has remain subdued amid low oil prices and a freeze in domestic electricity tariffs. While Glapinski has acknowledged that inflation may be slower and growth stronger, he sees a stronger probability of rates staying unchanged. Czech National Bank Current cash rate: 1.75% Forecast for end of 2019: 2.25% The Czech central bank, one of the global front-runners in lifting borrowing costs, interrupted its tightening push in December to gauge the impact of its record series of interest-rate increases. The five hikes last year were a reaction to weak currency, which has failed to cool the economy in which a robust wage growth has been fueling consumer demand and inflation pressures.Policy makers are again expecting the koruna to gain this year and tighten conditions for businesses, and they said that absence of currency appreciation could allow more hikes. The central bank says the benchmark should continue rising to bring real interest rates from negative to neutral levels, but it said decisions on further hikes will be more difficult than in 2018. That's partly because the export-reliant nation could be exposed to global risks such as trade protectionism and Brexit, and an overdone monetary tightening may constrain the economy too much. Methodology: Based on median estimate in monthly or quarterly survey, where available, or most recent collected forecasts. All interest rate and forecast data is as of Jan. 14. --With assistance from Samuel Dodge, Onur Ant, Theophilos Argitis, Dorota Bartyzel, Jeff Black, Catherine Bosley, Chris Bourke, Walter Brandimarte, Matthew Brockett, Nacha Cattan, Christopher Condon, Patrick Gillespie, David Goodman, Paul Gordon, Harumi Ichikura, Peter Laca, Cynthia Li, Rafaela Lindeberg, Brett Miller, Anirban Nag, Prinesha Naidoo, Lin Noueihed, Jana Randow, Solape Renner, Jake Rudnitsky, Karlis Salna, Tomoko Sato, Sveinung Sleire and Sarina Yoo. To contact the editor responsible for this story: Simon Kennedy at [email protected], Zoe SchneeweissCatarina Saraiva For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com 2019 Bloomberg L.P. | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/comes-rates-central-banks-going-010028221.html |
Will 2019 Be Amazon's Dividend Debut? | E-commerce giant Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) has earned the top spot in the stock universe, with its market capitalization moving above those of some of its biggest rivals in the tech space, including Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). Even though Amazon stock suffered punishing declines during the last part of the year, it nevertheless saw solid gains in 2018, easily outperforming the losses from the broader stock market. Yet Amazon has thus far failed to do something that Microsoft and Apple have done for years: pay its shareholders a dividend. Amazon has been content to reinvest all of its cash flow back into its business, but some believe that the stock might do better if it joined the trend toward paying dividends. Below, we'll look more closely to see if 2019's the right time for Amazon to make its dividend debut. Stats on Amazon Metric Current Stat Net income, last 12 months $8.90 billion Free cash flow, last 12 months $13.36 billion Earnings per share, last 12 months $17.85 Earnings growth from full-year 2017 194% Data source: Yahoo! Finance. Why Amazon should pay a dividend Tech start-ups are slow to pay dividends. It takes time for these capital-intensive companies to hit their stride, and with so much well-established competition in the tech arena, being premature to return capital to shareholders can result in failing to catch up to one's rivals. That strategy has served Amazon well over the past 20 years, allowing it to take full advantage of strong periods while surviving the inevitable downturns that proved fatal for many of Amazon's weaker counterparts elsewhere in the industry. But now, Amazon has seen parts of its business reach full maturity. The e-commerce giant's operating cash flow has skyrocketed, rising from less than $5.5 billion five years ago to nearly $26.7 billion over the past 12 months. AMZN Cash from Operations (TTM) Chart More AMZN Cash from Operations (TTM) data by YCharts. Net income also soared last year, in part because of the beneficial impacts of lower corporate tax rates. After years of dealing with criticism for its minimal attention to its bottom line, Amazon now is consistently profitable and has been growing its earnings dramatically. That said, Amazon has always found ways to put cash to work, and paying a dividend would take money away from other uses. Lately, it's worked hard to get its balance sheet back in order after its monumental $13.7 billion purchase of Whole Foods Market back in 2017. That purchase reversed three years of efforts to pay down debt, leaving the company with long-term debt of almost $25 billion. Continuing efforts to repay borrowings are likely to continue, especially with interest rates on the rise and the possibility that Amazon will want to make further strategic acquisitions in the future. | https://news.yahoo.com/2019-amazon-apos-dividend-debut-010200763.html |
How long can ORourke wait as 2020 pace picks up around him? | AUSTIN, Texas (AP) You wont see Beto ORourke announce whether hes running for president in 2020 for a while. But you may see him do almost anything else in the meantime. So, Im here at the dentist, the former Democrat congressman said with a giggle during a teeth-cleaning seen live on Instagram last week, before quizzing the dental hygienist about life along the U.S.-Mexico border. Anyone grumbling about livestream overexposure can catch ORourke on more traditional airwaves next month in New York, when Oprah Winfrey interviews him. ORourke barged into last years Senate race almost laughably early, in March 2017, insisting he was a credible contender against the incumbent, Republican Ted Cruz, when almost no one nationally knew of ORourke. Now hes doing almost anything to keep people paying attention to him without formally starting a presidential campaign for 2020. Hes not expected to decide until next month at the earliest whether hes running. These days, that counts as playing hard to get. Influential activists in Iowa and elsewhere are clamoring for him to get in the race while some potential rivals move their timelines earlier. Theyre not going to wait forever, Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston, said of Democratic campaign operatives, donors, activists and fellow politicians looking to pick sides or offer endorsements. The more candidates who start to formally launch their candidacies, the greater the pressure will rise on Beto. Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren announced on New Years Eve that shed formed a presidential exploratory committee, hoping to get an early jump on people such as ORourke, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sens. Corey Booker of New Jersey, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Kamala Harris of California. Since then, Warren has seen enthusiasm rise, especially after a successful trip to Iowa, which kicks off presidential primary voting. Julian Castro, housing chief under President Barack Obama, kicked off his campaign Saturday and could appeal to the same Hispanic community that ORourke may count on as a bilingual native of the borderland city of El Paso. A string of announcements from top Democrats could come this month. While still deciding, ORourke plans to travel the country and meet voters beyond Texas, but avoid places such as Iowa and New Hampshire, home to the nations first presidential primary, even though Democrats there have invited him. My feeling is hes lost a little momentum and thats the downside of being a media product, said Norman Solomon, a Sanders delegate to the 2016 Democratic National Convention from California. Solomon said questions remain about whether ORourkes voting record during his three terms in Congress is too centrist to excite the Democratic base. That anyone would ask if ORourke is waiting too long with the election 22 months away is unusual. But anger over President Donald Trump has created an outsized Democratic appetite to go on the political attack. And because impeachment seems unlikely, fast-forwarding 2020 campaigns may become necessary. American political campaigns have really become almost reality television programs, said Ray Sullivan, a veteran of the 2012 Republican presidential campaign of then-Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Perry waited until August 2011 to join an already months-old Republican presidential primary field and briefly became the front-runner something that seems impossible just two presidential campaigns later. The attention span of activists and voters and even the media has become so short, and the attention-grabbing events so vacuous and fleeting, that the candidates would be very smart, I think, to get in early and identify and carve out their niche, Sullivan said. For ORourke, a 46-year-old, ex-punk rocker, trying to project a down-to-earth image may be a major selling point to voters. But Sullivan raises this questions: What if another candidate gets in and captures the imagination of Twitter and the activists and there may not be room for the celebrity of Beto when hes ready? Still, ORourkes delays havent lessened the enthusiasm of operatives from past Democratic presidential campaigns who have formed Draft Beto 2020 groups. Were building an apparatus that we can hand off to an actual campaign should he run, said Boyd Brown, a prominent South Carolina Democrat and former member of the Democratic National Committee. He is among the leaders of the ORourke draft movement in the Souths first primary state. Were treating this like a presidential campaign until told otherwise. Working in ORourkes favor is a lack of a perceived 2020 heir-apparent candidate who can draw in donors and top operatives. That model may be evaporating anyway, though, because the two politicians who looked to take on that role heading into the 2016 campaign, Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, fell short of the presidency. Everybody who has ever thought about running for president is threatening to do it this time, said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. The sheer size of the potential field throws out the rules of the game that have been created by years of campaigns. ___ Associated Press writer Bill Barrow in Atlanta contributed to this report. | https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation/how-long-can-orourke-wait-as-2020-pace-picks-up-around-him/ |
Can James Harden carry Rockets after Clint Capela Injury? | The basketball gods have turned this Rockets season into a perverse experiment, stripping away James Hardens support system piece by piece until the reigning MVP is forced to score every last point himself. First Chris Paul was sidelined by a hamstring injury, denying Harden his counterpunching point guard. Eric Gordon then bowed out of the lineup with a right knee contusion, forcing even more of the creative responsibility back on Harden. The latest blow is a killer: Clint Capela, according to a report from ESPN.com, is expected to miss four to six weeks with an injury to his right thumbstriking from the active roster the most common recipient of Hardens assists. Even a relatively short recovery could cost Capela 15 games at a time when the Rockets can hardly afford to lose any. Harden averaged 40.2 points, 9.6 assists and 6.9 rebounds per game for the better part of a month just to drag Houston into sixth place in the West, two games ahead of the ninth-place Jazz. Its not enough, apparently, to make history. Harden will have to do more. Without Houstons second, third and fourth-leading scorers, Harden may have to find peace in taking upward of 40 shots from the field. Some of that is a practical necessity for a team without much choice; another part of cold reality that losing Capela will make it more difficult for Harden to get to the free throw line, thus inflating his shot attempts. There is a portion of Hardens offenseand thus Houstonsthat is literally untouchable. Defenders cant seem to reach his step-back jumper often enough to affect it, which gives the reigning MVP a weapon he can access in almost any circumstance. Most everything else, however, plays in some way off of the threat of Capela. Even spreading the floor with shooters doesnt have the same immediacy. Its the dual interior threat of a driving Harden and a rolling (or cutting) Capela that puts opponents in a bind, calling their schemes into question. That element is lostas is the Rockets baseline. Houston has actually fared reasonably well in its minutes without Capela this season, in large part because Mike DAntoni had some say in when they occurred. Nene could be contained to short stints. P.J. Tucker could be deployed at center at just the right moment. You can afford to be choosy when you have a starter as uniformly capable as Capela, the fastball that sets up Nenes change-up and Tuckers knuckleball. Neither, then, is much of a full-time replacement. Tucker might have to try as the best of the options available. Houston can likely get better minutes out of its forwards than its centers, which sets up the Rockets to play as much small ball as Tucker can take. This is not an insignificant stressor, even for a semi-truck like Tucker. There are tradeoffs that come whenever smaller players are asked to defend taller ones, whether on the glass, in contesting shots or in the matchup game. Tucker is an excellent defender and, for the most part, a functional center. That functionality may be strained, however, should it become Houstons default. The Rockets were managing Nenes minutes already and occasionally resting him outright. Its nice to have a skilled, veteran center in the mix under these circumstances, but Nene is a situational choice at best. He has yet to play more than 21 minutes in any game this season, or more than 13 minutes in any game this month. Isaiah Hartenstein could pick up minutes here or there, though his minutes will likely foster an added appreciation for all the nuance Capela brings to his role. Its one thing to have size and quite another to understand how to use it over the course of a game that is constantly changing. Harden has a way of making opponents desperate, which leads to all sorts of variations in coverage. When the Rockets feel the strategy of the game shifting, Capela and Harden know how to lay a new foundation. Hartenstein is simply doing his best to get by. This could also be the last best chance for Marquese Chriss to be a relevant NBA player. If that prospect sounds enticing, keep in mind that Chriss has been largely clueless for the better part of his three seasons in the leagueat times whiffing on concepts as simple as where to stand on offense. Yet if there will ever be a time for Chriss to better establish himself, its nowwith his team desperate for rim runners and lob threats. NADKARNI: NBA Free Agency Is Not Always Your Friend No matter where they turn, the Rockets will be in relatively new territory. Houstons most-played lineup without Capela, Paul or Gordon has logged a total of 18 minutes this season, per NBA.com. Eighteen. This is not an arrangement to which anyone involved is accustomed, and yet the Rockets will have to feign chemistry until they can find some. Unfortunately, there is rarely a cakewalk game to be found in the West. The closest thing the Rockets have scheduled during Capelas projected absence is a Feb. 4 game in Phoenix that will also be Houstons third game in four nights and the third stop on a four-game road trip. Until Capelas return, the only reasonable goal is survival. Even splitting the schedule would be an achievement for a team this understaffed; it already took the emergence of Danuel House Jr. and the buyout addition of Austin Rivers to get the Rockets this far, and now theyll be forced to go without another of the cornerstones to their rotationa Sisyphean twist to Hardens growing myth. | https://www.si.com/nba/2019/01/14/can-james-harden-carry-rockets-clint-capela-injury |
What's that loud rumbling in southeast Chandler? | Jet engines are tested at Honeywell plants in the Phoenix area. (Photo: Getty Images/iStockphoto) No, that loud jet engine noise Chandler residents reported hearing over the past week wasn't a UFO. As one Chandler resident noted on Facebook, UFOs are pretty quiet. He would know. He said he has seen one. The low-pitched buzzing noise is coming from Honeywells jet-testing facility at the base of the San Tan Mountains on the Gila River Indian reservation. On Thursday, several Chandler residents took to Facebook to ask whether anyone else had heard a sonic boom in the area. The posts generated dozens of responses from curious residents who also heard the loud noise and wondered where it was coming from. Some speculated about aliens and several Top Gun GIFs also appeared. Facebook user Albert Cruz, who said he lives in Sun Groves near the testing facility, said it sounded like a jet flying overhead. Others said it sounded like a jet was hovering over their house, and another Facebook user, Emily Harrelson, said it felt as if her house was literally shaking. CLOSE Chandler resident Lisa Kana Scott recorded the loud buzzing noise coming from a nearby Honeywell testing site from the backyard of her home. Courtesy of Lisa Kana Scott, Arizona Republic Honeywell spokesman Steve Brecken confirmed the company is conducting correlation testing of one of its military aircraft engines at the San Tan Remote Test Facility near Higley and Riggs roads. Crews conducted a 15-minute test at full power on Thursday, Brecken said, but the test was cut short because of issues with the test cell. Honeywell resumed testing on Friday and again Monday morning, he said. Honeywell will continue to test the engines through Wednesday. The company will run the engine from 7:30 to 9:30 a.m. each day, he said. Although most residents commenting on Facebook said this is the first time theyve heard the noise, others noted that they've heard the sound of jet engines sporadically over the last two decades. Honeywell has had a presence at the site for more than 50 years. Though its remote location makes it an ideal spot to test aircraft engines, new housing developments have encroached on the testing site as the Southeast Valley has continued to grow. The testing noise has elicited complaints from neighbors over the years. Brecken said he received one call from a local resident about the noise, and another resident spoke with security at the site Monday morning. The facility is closed to the public. Chandler Police has not received any noise complaints, a spokesman said, but because the testing site is on reservation land, the city would not be able to address noise issues even if it had. In 2003, 100 south Chandler residents filed a lawsuit against developers of five subdivisions near the site claiming that the developers did not tell prospective home buyers about the facility, according to a report in the East Valley Tribune. The residents claimed the jet-engine noise was bothersome and had they known they likely wouldnt have purchased a home in the area. Reach the reporter at [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter: @paulinapineda22. Click here to subscribe to azcentral.com. Go to connect.azcentral.com for a staff list, for more information about the newsroom and for details about upcoming events. Read or Share this story: https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/chandler/2019/01/14/jet-engine-testing-near-chandler-generates-response-residents/2576591002/ | https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/chandler/2019/01/14/jet-engine-testing-near-chandler-generates-response-residents/2576591002/ |
How did Wisconsin's Annie Reardon do on 'The Bachelor' with Colton Underwood? | Annie Reardon holds her own in her meeting in with Colton Underwood on the season premiere of "The Bachelor." But she was sent home the second week. (Photo: Rick Rowell/ABC) Annie, we hardly knew ye. Annie Reardon, the Mequon native who competed for Colton Underwood's heart on "The Bachelor," was one of four contestants sent home Monday night, on just the second episode of the new season of the ABC reality-competition series. RELATED: 'The Bachelor' recap: Guest stars liven night of 'firsts'; four ladies sent home It wasn't a big surprise: Reardon, a financial associate in New York City, had posted as much on social media (scrubbing the post soon after) before the show's new season started Jan. 7. RELATED: 4 things to know about 'The Bachelor's' Wisconsin connection, Annie Reardon Reardon made her presence felt on the season's first episode, but wasn't much of a factor on Episode 2. Monday's show featured guest appearances by comic actors Nick Offerman, Megan Mullally and Billy Eichner, and focused much of its conversation on "first times" keying on the fact that Underwood, a former NFL player, is still a virgin. Nineteen women are still in the hunt for Underwood's affections. Read or Share this story: https://www.jsonline.com/story/entertainment/television-radio/2019/01/14/how-did-wisconsins-annie-reardon-do-colton-underwood-the-bachelor/2577671002/ | https://www.jsonline.com/story/entertainment/television-radio/2019/01/14/how-did-wisconsins-annie-reardon-do-colton-underwood-the-bachelor/2577671002/ |
What's Next in the Kyler Murray Saga? | Kyler Murray declared for the NFL draft Monday with an understated Tweet. Yes, the former Oklahoma quarterback is, for now, contractually committed to a baseball career (the Oakland Athletics drafted him ninth overall in 2018 and gave him a $4.6 million signing bonus), but a Heisman-winning campaign and College Football Playoff berth caused him to reconsider the original plan. Murrays decision to declare didnt come as a surprise to the As or NFL teams. Back in December, I reported that some NFL scouts who visited Oklahoma came away with the expectation that Murray would declare for the NFL draft, and that Oklahoma had submitted his name to the College Advisory Committee, a panel of evaluators from the 32 NFL teams that give prospective draft grades to underclassmen considering going pro. On Sunday, multiple outlets reported that the As sent top executives to Dallas to meet with Murray and his family to try to persuade him to stick with baseball. MLB also sent marketing executives to meet with him to present information about Murrays off-field earning potential. At this point, Murrays decision to declare for the draft is purely procedural. The NFL draft wouldn't have been an option had he not declared by Monday's early-entry deadlineif he chooses baseball, he can simply inform NFL teams that, while they can draft him and hold his rights for a year, he won't be playing football in 2019. Oakland A's position players report to spring training on Feb. 18, so the As have until then to try to win over Murray. MLB.coms Jeff Passan reported that in Sunday's meeting, the two sides discussed Oakland guaranteeing more money in addition to the $4.6 million bonus. To do so, Oakland would need to add Murray to the 40-man roster, but he would still spend time in the minor leagues. If Murray ends up choosing the NFL, hell have to pay back his signing bonus to Oakland. Murray has a unique amount of leverage for a college player, but it isnt totally unprecedented. In 1983, John Elway didnt want to play for the cellar-dwelling Baltimore Colts, who had selected him first overall. He leveraged his baseball potential with the Yankees to push Baltimore to trade him to Denver. Eli Manning said publicly that he would not play for the Chargers if they drafted him with the No. 1 pick of the 2004 draft, which forced the Chargers to trade him to the Giants in a swap that netted San Diego Philip Rivers and three draft picks. Murray has never taken an at-bat in the minor leagues, and the idea that he might end up with a major league contract shows just how unique his situation is. It isnt just the Athletics who want Murray, its Major League Baseball as a whole. The Elway comparison is a natural one because of the baseball option, but Elway was unanimously viewed as the best quarterback of the 83 draft classMurray the NFL prospect is not such a sure thing. He threw for 4,361 yards, 42 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season and picked up 1,001 yards and 12 scores on the ground, but Murray is listed at 5' 10", (exactly 5' 9 7/8", according to OU) and there are questions about how the undersized quarterbacks skillset translates to the NFL. Some scouts have told me hes definitely a first-round talent, because the league has become increasingly more accepting of smaller quarterbacks and offenses are evolving to highlight Murrays dynamic playing style, but others have voiced concern over his height and durability. Our Albert Breer reported that he has yet to talk to an evaluator who views Murray as a first-round talent. Because of the premium placed on the position, quarterbacks typically rise in the draft, making it likely Murray will end up being a first-round pick. One CAC evaluator told me that Murray likely received a first- or second-round grade from the panel, but he was not assigned to Murrays specific evaluation and could not say for certain. Sign up for The MMQBs Morning Huddle. HOT READS NOW ON THE MMQB: Jenny Vrentas on new Jets head coach Adam Gase ... 100 Bears fans tried to kick Cody Parkey's blocked 43-yard field goal, and I joined them ... Andy Benoit previews Mahomes vs. Belichick Part II ... and more. WHAT YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: Albert Breer's MMQB on the winners of the divisional round ... Greg Bishop watched Patrick Mahomes's first playoff win with the Mahomes family ... and more. PRESS COVERAGE 1. Matt Nagy was not happy with Cody Parkey's Today show appearance. 2. It's pretty clear Parkey could soon be cut. 3. Nagy, who has experience coaching Kareem Hunt, did not rule out the possibility the Bears would sign him. 4. Adam Vinatieri, who will be a free agent in March, will meet with the Colts on Tuesday to discuss his future. 5. John Elway admits to our pal Peter King that he was wrong about hiring Vance Joseph as head coach. THE KICKER Kicking is hard, but this was a Doink Chicagoans could actually laugh at. Let the team know at [email protected] | https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/01/15/themmqb-morning-huddle-kyler-murray-nfl-draft-2019-oakland-athletics |
Which teams would pursue Nick Foles? | The first question becomes whether hell exit as a free agent. His contract sets up a ping-pong match that starts with the Eagles exercising a $20 million option for 2019, Foles exercising a $2 million buyout, and the Eagles then deciding whether to apply the franchise tag, which would cost in the neighborhood of $25 million for one more year. Scroll to continue with content Ad The Eagles, if they tag Foles, presumably would then try to trade Foles, who may not be thrilled about the team showing its appreciation for his contributions by trying to squeeze something more for his rights than the compensatory draft pick consideration theyd get. But theyll understandably hope to guide him to a team other than Washington or the Giants, a pair of division rivals who could become very interested in pursuing the Super Bowl LII MVP. Only four other teams would seem to be obvious potential suitors: The Dolphins, Bengals (maybe), Jaguars, Raiders (maybe), and Broncos. Everyone else seems to be set at the position, and most of the teams with older quarterbacks (like the Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, and Saints) would presumably throw the incumbent overboard only for a much younger player. The lack of a long list of no-brainer options for Foles could put the Eagles in a delicate spot, with the $25 million tag applied to Foles and then accepted by Foles, making his salary fully guaranteed and forcing the Eagles to keep him around for another year, with Wentz making peanuts in comparison under the fourth year of his rookie deal. | https://sports.yahoo.com/teams-pursue-nick-foles-170253996.html?src=rss |
What is life really like in border country, where Trump wants his wall? | Donald Trumps big, beautiful wall has become the trademark of his presidency. It is the promise that more than any other has energized his base, and riled his opponents, and his dogged attachment to it has now brought a large part of the US government to a historic 25 days of partial shutdown. The potency of Trumps wall for his supporters and his detractors stems from its simplicity. Build it tall, build it wide he has pledged 1,000 miles of it and America will be safe again. Taken as a whole, the 1,954 miles of US-Mexican border is a place of astounding diversity of terrain, of land-use, of city and countryside, of ethnicity. It traverses desert, river, mountain and sea. There is diversity, too, of political view among the 7.5 million people who live in US border counties. Some are ardent backers of Trumps wall. Others see their future, and the future of America, as being inextricably linked to that of their neighbor to the south. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Central American migrant families at a protest at Friendship Park in April last year. Photograph: Carolyn Van Houten/Washington Post/Getty Images Friendship through the fence Hike 45 minutes past salt marshes and sand dunes, down a lonely beach empty but for occasional tourists on horseback, and you arrive at a steel fence that juts out into the Pacific Ocean. This is where Trump would like to start building his wall should he find the billions of dollars necessary. With the impasse over funding, which prompted the shutdown, administration officials have started to describe whats already here, as well as repairs to a two-mile stretch of fence in Calexico 100 miles to the east, as Trumps wall. They are not. The length of wall that has been built by Trump since he entered the White House in January 2017 is zero. This is the westernmost point of the US-Mexico border, on the outskirts of San Ysidro, California, a suburb of San Diego that is home to one of the busiest border crossings in the world. Here, the hopes of thousands of migrants who try to make it to the US every year are often dashed. The fence stretches out just to where the waves break, and reaches 15 or 20ft, not the looming 30ft the president has demanded. Adjacent to this stretch of fence is Friendship Park, a patch of bi-national ground where loved ones from both sides of the border are allowed to meet. The name is paradoxical given the hostility Trump has engendered since he began his wall obsession. Outside Friendship Park which only takes 10 visitors at a time separated families and friends must make do with waving at each other from a distance. Today the US side is unpopulated save for a lone American, and on the Mexican side a father and young boy are looking northwards. USA! the man says, pointing through a slot for his sons benefit. From San Ysidro, the fence runs unbroken for 46 miles to the east until it gives way to the unforgiving desert. Thats 46 out of a total of 654 miles of fencing that already exists, much of it in various stages of disrepair. Those hundreds of miles of double reinforced fencing and wire meshing were the product of a different era in politics where some degree of bipartisan consensus was possible. They were largely funded by the Secure Fence Act, an immigration compromise reached in 2006 under former president George W Bush. Compromise seems unthinkable these days. Trump has laid out a vision of the border that is harshly binary: on his side of the territorial line there is the rule of law, hard work and freedom; on the other side there is criminality, gangs and drug smuggling. The purpose of the wall, in Trumps dystopia, is to prevent America being overrun by the dark forces billowing out of its neighbor. In his Oval Office address to the nation last week he said: Over the years, thousands of Americans have been brutally killed by those who illegally entered our country and thousands more lives will be lost if we dont act right now. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Trump has laid out a binary vision: the rule of law versus criminality, gangs and drug smuggling. Photograph: Carolyn Van Houten/The Washington Post/Getty Images But talk to people in San Ysidro on the American side of the border, and they will tell you about fear and intimidation inflicted on them by the US government. In this town, where 90% of residents speak Spanish at home, the land south of the border is not equated with lawlessness and evil, but with family, friends and affordable healthcare. If theres a dystopia, its not the Mexican one of Trumps imagining but the hardened militarism that is fast emerging on the US side replete with helicopters, barricades and armed border patrol. The feeling like youre in a war zone is so dramatic the last couple months, said Lisa Cuestas, head of Casa Familiar, a nonprofit that provides social services to San Ysidro. Militarisation sped up after the arrival in Tijuana, on the Mexican side, of the caravan of Central American migrants which Trump made so much of during the November midterm elections, calling it an immigration invasion. Now members of the caravan are stuck in Mexico and barbed wire has proliferated everywhere like a mutant weed. Estrella Flores has family and a job in San Ysidro, working with youth at Casa Familiar, but she lives in Tijuana with her husband and 18-month-old child. Her commute has become hellish since Trumps border crackdown. Im just trying to get to work. This isnt just a friendly crossing, it could turn very bad, very quickly. Such views are commonplace across California. A poll conducted by the San Diego Union-Tribune after Trumps Oval Office speech found that 56% of Californians opposed the idea of the wall, compared with 34% in favor. Thats not surprising for a state that is a leading force of progressive politics in the US. But California is also significant for having more undocumented migrants than any other state 2.4 million to Texass 1.7 million. Close by is the site of Trumps eight wall prototypes. He came here last March to pose for photos in front of the giant slabs of concrete and steel. Now they languish and rust. According to a later report by the Government Accountability Office, the eight model sections were riddled with design and construction flaws. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) tested the slabs and found they can be breached. Facebook Twitter Pinterest The Cabeza Prieta wilderness near Ajo, Arizona. Photograph: Caitlin OHara/Getty Images Death in the desert The first light glistens off the frosted spines of the cholla cacti as 30 volunteers in neon yellow shirts fan out to comb the desert under a pale pink sky. Ely Ortiz, the leader of the Aguilas del desierto (Eagles of the desert) rallies his team who have driven through the night from San Diego to Ajo, Arizona. He tells them the last time they searched this area they found 11 sets of remains. The volunteers are joined by a team of cadaver dogs to help in the grim search. A dog called Zabra, whose last job was looking for victims of the California wildfires, is unaccustomed to the desert terrain and has to stop every couple of hundred yards to have barbed spines yanked from her paws. Unexploded ordinance dropped by the US military in training is one element of danger for migrants. Trump can already count on a metaphorical wall here. This is the most frequently travelled, but also most deadly, migrant corridor across the Sonoran desert. Water is scarce and temperatures rise above 120F (49C) in the summer months. The official CBP count records 7,209 deaths along the south-western border in the past 20 years, but that is almost certainly a gross underestimate. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Indigenous Tohono Oodham people in the Altar desert protest against Trumps proposed wall. Photograph: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images Despite the human tragedy, federal prosecutors have seen fit to prosecute nine volunteers with the humanitarian group No More Deaths. Their offence: littering and driving on restricted roads in the Cabeza Prieta reserve when responding to search and rescue calls. The nine will face trial on Tuesday in a federal district court in Tucson. The irony is that they tell us we cant drive here or leave water because its protected wilderness, but meanwhile border patrol drives their trucks and ATVs off road, and fly helicopters and drones wherever they want, one of the nine, Parker Deighan, told the Guardian. Trumps policy of prevention through deterrence is forcing migrants to take greater risks. As legal admission to the US through official ports of entry becomes ever more restricted, migrants are being funneled away from fenced sections of the border towards the desert. One of the only towns in the area is Ajo. Today its a ghost town, as its copper mine closed in the 1980s. Since then most residents have switched to the main local job-provider: border security. Ajo Samaritans recently gathered in the plaza for a vigil to honor the lives of the people who succumbed in the surrounding wilderness. They laid out 118 white crosses, one for each of those lost in 2018. Those whose bones had yet to be identified were called desconocido unknown. Facebook Twitter Pinterest An agent in Nogales, Arizona watches over the border at dusk. Photograph: John Moore/Getty Images Making an entry Before Trump decided to throw a bone to his voter base during the midterm election campaign last year by sending more than 5,000 active-duty military troops to the border, the gate at Lukeville port of entry in Arizona was almost always open. American tourists, seeking to flee the winter, would blithely pour through heading for the beach at Rocky Point, an hours drive south on the Mexican coast. Trumps border clampdown hasnt only cramped the style of beach-lovers as they pass through the now half-closed gate. Over the past two months, the US military have brought with them concertina wire and a double stack of shipping containers, ready to be used to block the entry as an impenetrable barricade should another caravan or immigrant invasion arise. Not that theres any sign of that. Most of the traffic through Lukeville is commercial and passenger, and the main concern of federal agents is not migrants but drugs. It is one of the myths propagated by the Trump administration that America is awash with drugs that have flooded into the country through lack of a wall. In his Oval Office address last week, Trump said that the border wall would very quickly pay for itself by halting the flow of illicit drugs implying that narcotics came into the US through sections of open border. Not true. In fact, most illegal drugs are hidden away in cars and tractor-trailers as they pass over international bridges and through small ports of entry like Lukeville. The 2018 annual drug threat assessment of the Drug Enforcement Administration points out that for drugs like heroin, up to 90% enters the country through ports of entry. Facebook Twitter Pinterest The border fence. Trump has pledged to build 1,000 miles of wall. Photograph: John Moore/Getty Images Another contradiction is that Trump insists on immigrants showing up legally at border crossings, yet for those who do so he has made it increasingly difficult for them to claim asylum. In November the Trump administration announced it would deny asylum to anyone who tries to cross the border illegally, though a federal court has since temporarily blocked the new regulation. Meanwhile, a new system of metering has been introduced that amounts to a federal slow-down at legal entry points. As a result, growing numbers of increasingly desperate families, most coming from the trio of violence-ridden Central American countries Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala have been left stranded in Mexico. At Lukeville, asylum seekers following Trumps orders and showing up legally at the port of entry have simply been turned away. The Guardian spoke to Alberto (not his real name) in a shelter on the Mexican side. In November, he presented himself at the Lukeville and asked for asylum. The supervising agent there told him to leave, claiming it was out of hours. Alberto was left on the streets where, days before, mafia members had told him they would kill him if they saw him again. Volunteer groups working with immigrants protested, and CBP apologized. Now when asked if they accept claims, Lukeville agents repeat the official mantra: Asylum seekers are being accepted at all ports of entry. That doesnt mean claims will be successful. Alberto did try a second time to have his claim heard. He will testify before an immigration judge in two weeks time. Facebook Twitter Pinterest The skyline of El Paso and Ciudad Juarez, where nearly 3 million people live. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images The twin city There is no place along the border that more strongly rebuts Trumps dystopian vision than El Paso. The Texas city is so intertwined with Ciudad Juarez across the Rio Grande to the south that they are virtually inseparable. Between them they are home to almost 3 million people roughly the size of Chicago. About 20,000 pedestrians and more than 35,000 vehicles cross into El Paso from Mexico every day, many to work, others to go to school or shop. Its two-way traffic: Americans in El Paso also regularly cross into Juarez to visit family or experience the nightlife. Eighty per cent of El Pasos residents are of Hispanic origin, and a quarter of the citys population was born outside the US. Mary Gonzalez, the Democratic representative for El Paso in the Texas house, said: Its a very generous, diverse, multi-national, welcoming and loving community. That human component is left out when the border is discussed. Retail sales in the US side of the twin cities is estimated to generate $10bn a year, with a fifth attributed to Mexican shoppers. Against that reality, Trump has painted a picture of rampant crime and the threat of violence being imported into the US. Thats a particularly loaded argument for El Paso, given the historically high murder rate in neighboring Juarez. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Sister Cities, a mural painted by Los Dos, symbolises the bond between El Paso and Ciudad Juarez. Photograph: Paul Ratje/AFP/Getty Images Last year saw it rise again to almost 200 people killed each month. Yet crime in El Paso on the US side of the border remains relatively low. Violent crimes have fallen sharply from about 6,500 in 1993 to around 3,000 today. Thats why Beto ORourke, the rising star of the Democratic party and former Congress representative for this strongly left-leaning city, lauded El Paso as the safest city in America as part of his senatorial election campaign in November. (His claim wasnt entirely accurate fact-checkers found it was only half true.) ORourke failed in his bid to unseat Ted Cruz in the midterm elections, but the fact that he came within three points of doing so suggests that Texans might be more open to his liberal stance on immigration and less in step with Trump than is often assumed. Opinion polls show that while most Texans are concerned about immigrants entering the country illegally, most are also opposed to Trumps wall. Some people go as far as to suggest that El Paso could be a harbinger of things to come for the whole of America. As Josiah Heyman, director of the Center for Inter-American and Border Studies, put it: El Paso is a place where there is a vision of the future, where people, instead of being part of a closed defensive community, are able to find the joy of relating to others. Facebook Twitter Pinterest People cool off in the Rio Grande, just over the border from Laredo, Texas. Photograph: Rodrigo Abd/AP On the edge the Rio Grande Travel 40 miles east from El Paso along the Rio Grande to Tornillo, and it feels a world away from the big city. Vast open areas are filled with orchards, and pecan nut and dairy farms. US border patrol vehicles keep a watchful eye. Of the 1,317 miles of border with no fence or human barrier, much of it lies along the 1,248 miles of Rio Grande. The river serves as the demarcation line between the two countries all the way from El Paso to the Gulf of Mexico. Powerful currents, towering canyons and cliffs that in the Big Bend section rise to 50ft and reduce the need for a solid barrier through much of the rivers trajectory. Still, Trump has his eye on the Rio Grande for his wall. Of the $5.7bn he is demanding from Congress, a sizable chunk would go towards building more than 100 miles of wall along the river. Here just outside Tornillo, the existing fence that runs west to Sunland Park in New Mexico has a 10-mile gap in it. Despite the lack of an artificial barrier, most locals go about their daily routine without fuss. Miguel Alvarez, who has lived close to the border for 25 years, said the arrival of the fence has made precious little difference. You still see small groups of people passing through just like they did before any fencing, he said. A farmer who didnt want to reveal his name said he would feel more comfortable if the gap in the fencing were closed. I havent had any issues with people coming across, but you never know, he said. Tornillo itself fell under the national spotlight after the Trump administration chose the Marcelino Serna port of entry south of the town to house thousands of unaccompanied minors in a tent-like facility. It was meant to be temporary, designed to help deal with hundreds of children who had been separated from their families as a result of Trumps crackdown on border crossers. But it rapidly grew, to up to 2,400 beds, becoming the face of the brutality of Trumps policy of tearing families apart as a form of deterrent. In November, a government watchdog warned that conditions in the tent city were putting children at risk, and since then the numbers have been reduced until the last teenager was transferred out of the facility last week. As far as locals are concerned, its closure couldnt happen fast enough. They are eager for things to get back to normal. Or at least as close to what passes as normal these days. | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/15/us-mexico-border-trump-wall-dispatch |
What exactly is Trump's border wall and why does he want $5.7bn for it? | Donald Trump may have backed away froma threat to declare a national emergency in order to bypass Congress and build a wall on the southern border, but his preoccupation with his 2016 campaign promise persists. The US-Mexico border is 1,954 miles (3,145km) long and crosses vast deserts and mountains in California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. About 654 miles of that have some sort of manmade barrier, such as fencing or a wall. Most of it was built after 2006. Details are thin on what would actually come from the $5.7bn. In recent weeks, Trumps language has shifted from calling it a wall to a barrier and he has conceded it does not need to be concrete. The barrier or the wall can be of steel instead of concrete if that works better, Trump said earlier this month. In January 2018, 60% of Americans said they opposed Trumps proposal to substantially expand the wall, according to the Pew Research Center. Expanding the wall is more popular among older people, white people and the less educated, according to the survey. There will never be an exact number because some people manage to cross illegally and undetected, then stay in the US, where they would not readily provide their immigration status to any sort of data collection. That said, a good starting point is the number of people US Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) apprehend at the southern border. In fiscal year 2017, that was 303,916 people, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Of that group, 13% claimed credible fear of returning to their home country, the first legal step in seeking asylum. To put this in perspective, also in 2017, more than 606,926 people who entered the US legally by air or sea, not land, overstayed their visas and remained in the country at the end of the year, according to DHS. And in 2000, 1.6 million illegal border crossers were apprehended. The Trump administration has a habit of using illegal to describe completely legal actions, such as seeking asylum at the border. Influential, far-right immigration opponents, including people in senior positions in the Trump administration, oppose many aspects of the asylum process. They have worked to drastically restrict it, despite many of their efforts being held up in the courts. Trump repeatedly refers to a crisis at the border and an invasion of migrants. He cites the wall as the primary solution, even though deep doubts abound about its efficacy. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Children watch US immigration agents participate in a practice drill near the border wall in Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico, on 30 November 2018. No. Trump and his supporters say Democrats support open borders (Loopholes in our immigration laws, all supported by extremist open border Democrats, Trump tweeted in June 2018), but Democrats have backed plenty of legislation that restricts immigration. In February, the Senate voted on a bipartisan plan to spend $25bn over 10 years to expand the various physical barriers along the border and to protect the Dreamers, the estimated 3.6 million undocumented people who came to the US unlawfully as children. Trump rejected that bill. The wall became a symbol for Trumps presidency, a promise that he would limit immigration. The thing is, he has been very effective at making immigration more difficult for people trying to enter legally and illegally yet the wall project still eludes him. A hint to why he is so focused on getting this wall came in 2017, when the Washington Post published leaked transcripts from a private phone call between Trump and Mexicos then president, Enrique Pea Nieto. A week after taking office, Trump told Pea Nieto that he had to stop rejecting his claim that Mexico would pay for the wall, according to the transcripts. He suggested in the conversation that this was because the wall was more important as a symbol than as a national security project. I am just going to say that we are working it out, Trump said. Believe it or not, this is the least important thing that we are talking about, but politically this might be the most important talk about. | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/15/trump-mexico-border-wall-status-migrants |
How will the Westminster factions vote on the Brexit deal? | If the tribal divisions of Brexit are complicated enough, then things become even more atomised when it comes to how the various groups in the Commons might vote on Theresa Mays deal and why. Here are the main factions and their leading personalities. For the deal Government payroll and loyalists The biggest single grouping, but almost certainly not numerous enough to get the deal through. May has experienced sufficient government resignations over her deal to be fairly sure that, by Tuesday, any ministers or aides remaining will line up in the yes lobby. These comprise about 150 MPs in all. With her will be the Conservative loyalists, those the whips can safely put down in their support tally. This group would normally comprise every Tory MP bar the occasional malcontent, but such is the divisiveness of Brexit, plus Mays fast-eroding authority, that this will be a greatly reduced number. Its anyones guess how many this will be. Group figurehead: Theresa May, of course. The PM will close the five-day debate on Tuesday evening ahead of the vote. Dont expect any rhetorical fireworks, just a patient dull even re-stating of the governments case. The Brexit delivery group This is a loose alliance of Tories who, while not always entirely enthusiastic about Mays plan, or in some cases even about Brexit itself, believe it has to be delivered, and that the PMs proposal is the safest way to do this. Group figurehead: Simon Hart. The Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire MP was formerly a remain supporter, but now heads this contingent. The backbench plan B squad A small contingent mainly Tory backbenchers Nick Boles, Nicky Morgan and Oliver Letwin who have put together a bill with a novel solution to ending the Brexit deadlock if Mays plan is voted down. Their idea would give MPs on the liaison committee, which groups together the chairs of key select committees, responsibility for coming up with a new plan if May cannot. Despite this forward-thinking approach, all three have said they will vote for the deal on Tuesday. A fair number of other Tories not involved in the actual plan are likely to feel the same way, at least on the idea of seeking a very different new plan if May loses the vote. Group figurehead: Nick Boles. He is by no means the leader, but has had the misfortune of being labelled a coup plotter in some papers, so takes on the role. Labour rebels May and her ministers had hoped this would be a potentially big and pivotal group potentially even sufficient to cancel out her malcontents and deliver victory. The hope was that apart from avowedly pro-leave Labour MPs, a number who represent strongly pro-Brexit seats could be tempted to join them. However, many of these have melted away, leaving as confirmed Labour supporters of the plan only John Mann, Jim Fitzpatrick and Kevin Barron all of whom have been in parliament for a number of years and will face down the criticism that will follow. Also likely to vote for the deal is Frank Field, who resigned the Labour whip last year over worries about antisemitism. Some diehard Labour Brexiters are not in this group, for example Kate Hoey, who shares the DUPs worries about the Irish border backstop plan and has said she will vote against the deal. Group figurehead: John Mann. The Bassetlaw MP is defiantly individualistic, and has long charted his own course in parliament. Against the deal Labour frontbench and loyalists For all Mays belated talk of a cross-party approach to Brexit, there have never been any serious efforts to get Labour onside, and Jeremy Corbyn and his team will vote against the deal on Tuesday. Aside from their objections to the specifics of the plan, the Labour frontbench has political considerations to keep in mind, not least its primary goal of triggering a general election and getting into government. While they have carefully danced around the specifics, recent comments by Corbyn, John McDonnell and others indicate Labour plans to trigger a no-confidence vote in Mays government if she loses on the Brexit vote. If May lost the confidence vote, an election would almost certainly result. If May won the confidence vote, Corbyn would have to consider whether to start backing a second referendum. Group figurehead: Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour leader will be hoping for a margin of defeat for May that weakens her position beyond repair. Moderate leave-minded Labour MPs Last week there was clearly hope that some Labour members representing strongly pro-leave areas could be tempted into the yes division, with the government accepting an amendment from three of them which gave further guarantees on employment rights after Brexit. However, the trio behind the amendment the Don Valley MP, Caroline Flint, Gareth Snell, who has represented Stoke-on-Trent Central since 2017, and Lisa Nandy, MP for Wigan are all understood to have decided to vote against the plan, at least for now. It is possible they could change sides if May presents an amended deal, but any changes would need to be more than tweaks. ERG/Tory Brexiters The biggest group of Conservatives who will defy the PM. They might have failed to oust her from Downing Street in December, but now have the chance to damage her through the Commons. The group which is most ideologically tied to its position, this contingent ranges from perennial backbenchers, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and John Redwood, to those who quit the cabinet in protest at Mays plans, notably Boris Johnson, David Davis and Dominic Raab. One factor of this group has been the way leading members have gradually shifted, as the timetable ran down, from arguing they could negotiate a better deal with Brussels to insisting that a no-deal departure would be manageable, even a good thing. Group figurehead: Both Rees-Mogg and Johnson believe they are, and Raab probably believes he should be. DUP Mays still semi-official coalition partners have not, contrary to the wishful thinking in No 10 before Christmas, had their fears over the backstop assuaged by positive if somewhat opaque words from Brussels. Without them, Mays plan seems toast. Group figurehead: Nigel Dodds, the partys Westminster leader, and Brexit spokesman. Tories/Labour for a second referendum They might be divided by party lines, but many of them line up at the same peoples vote rallies and they have the same ultimate goal: giving voters another say. On the Conservative side these include Sarah Wollaston and former universities minister Jo Johnson. The Labour contingent is more numerous, most visibly Chuka Umunna. You could also count the sole Green MP, Caroline Lucas, as a key advocate of the idea. Group figurehead: Anna Soubry. The Tory remainer has become something of a lightning rod for Brexit anger over the second referendum idea, receiving abuse outside parliament and death threats. Liberal Democrats The party is publicly committed to reversing the Brexit process, and its MPs will surely line up with Vince Cable to vote against Mays plan. SNP The other major Westminster party which is officially against any type of Brexit, its 35 MPs will oppose the plan. | https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/15/how-will-the-westminster-factions-vote-on-the-brexit-deal |
Why has PayPal frozen 2,000 of our charity money? | Ive spent nearly two months trying to sort it out, but I cant get the donations to southern India I help run a small charity, HAPsI, which helps some of the poorest people in Tamil Nadu, southern India. The project is being put at risk because of PayPals inability to explain why our account has been frozen. An independent school visits the area every year, and the pupils decided to donate 2,000 via PayPal. As a result, PayPal (after taking its commission) froze the account and I have been trying to find out why ever since. I have sent six emails requesting an explanation. I have had one reply which gives an instruction to follow the steps given online, but there are none. I have called eight times. After nearly two months of trying to elicit a response I have made no progress. DK, by email You are not the first person to complain that contacting PayPal is a nightmare. However, a call to its HQ was able to get things moving. It seems you had breached the 2,500 (2,257) EU Anti-Money Laundering Directive limit. Someone has since talked you through the process to free up your account, and the money is yours again. You had to supply extra verifications to demonstrate you were not money laundering. PayPal has apologised and made a 100 donation of its own. We welcome letters but cannot answer individually. Email us at [email protected] or write to Consumer Champions, Money, the Guardian, 90 York Way, London N1 9GU. Please include a daytime phone number. Submission and publication of all letters is subject to our terms and conditions | https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/15/anti-money-laundering-eu-rules-charity-funds |
Who is Juan Guaid, the opposition leader challenging Maduro's rule? | The 35-year-old Venezuelan was un unknown figure until he told the world he was ready to assume the presidency as Nicols Maduro began his second term Until last week, Juan Guaid, the 35-year-old leader of Venezuelas opposition-controlled National Assembly, was an unknown figure on the international stage. Venezuela: opposition leader declares himself ready to assume presidency Read more That changed on Thursday as the countrys president Nicols Maduro began his second term of office following elections last summer that were widely denounced as fraudulent. The inauguration was met with a chorus of international disapproval, and Guaid, just six days into his post, told the world he was ready to assume the presidency until free and fair elections could be held provided he had the vital support of the military. His announcement a rare open challenge to Maduros rule won support from the head of the Organisation of American States, but also prompted fears it could provoke a fresh crackdown on the opposition. Maduro, who has overseen deepening economic and political turmoil, made light of his relatively inexperienced challenger. A lot of people in Venezuela are going to ask what is this Guaid? he joked in a Friday night TV address. But on Sunday,Guaid was briefly detained by the intelligence services something Maduros administration blamed on rogue operatives. Look what they are doing, Guaid told a rally of supporters following his release. They are desperate in [the presidential palace] Miraflores We are survivors, not victims! Raised in La Guaira, a port city 20 miles from Caracas, Guaid cut his political teeth during 2007 student protests against Maduros late predecessor Hugo Chvez, who was then seeking to consolidate power. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Venezuelan President Nicols Maduro after receiving the presidential sash during the ceremonial swearing-in for his second presidential term on 10 January. Photograph: Carlos Garca Rawlins/Reuters Chvez put various constitutional amendments, including the abolition of presidential term limits and the ability to unilaterally declare a national emergency, to a public referendum. But the vote handed Chvez his only electoral defeat in a nine-year presidency, and emboldened a nascent opposition movement, including Guaids charismatic but divisive mentor Leopoldo Lpez, who has been under house arrest and barred from political office since early 2014. It was Lpez who tapped Guaid, 12 years his junior, to lead his Popular Will partys coalition in the National Assembly when its mandate began on January 5th. Guaid had just finished his first full term as a legislator, having been elected in 2015. Guaid is a fighter and an eternal optimist hes humble and sincere, said Freddy Guevara, an opposition leader and friend of Guaid, in a telephone call from the Chilean ambassadors residence in Caracas, where is seeking asylum. He gets along with everyone and doesnt have the typical profile of a politician. Many in Venezuela thought Maduro had successfully neutered the assembly in 2017, when he sidelined it in favour of a more pliant Constituent Assembly via elections which were also widely labelled a sham. Lpez, was one of the oppositions most radical and confrontational leaders, but few had expected his protege Guaid to mount such a brazen challenge to Maduro. 'A slow-motion catastrophe': on the road in Venezuela, 20 years after Chvez's rise Read more He was incredibly brave and now runs risks that hell be jailed, tortured, or need to go into exile, said David Smolansky, an opposition leader, who was also forced to flee Venezuela and is now living in the US. However, he decided to go ahead. Hes part of my generation; a brave generation that grew up under a dictatorship. Guaid is no stranger to adversity. His family survived a devastating landslide in his hometown in 1999 that killed as many as 30,000 people, and he claims to wear scars on his neck from rubber bullets fired at protesters in 2017 in Caracas. Guaid has called on Venezuelans to take to the streets on 23 January, the anniversary of a popular uprising that overthrew military dictator Marcos Prez Jimnez in 1958. Additional reporting by Mariana Zuiga in Caracas | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/15/juan-guaido-venezuelan-opposition-leader-challenging-maduros-rule |
When Will Samsung's New Galaxy S10 Go On Sale? | Samsung has announced another Unpacked event for February 20th, and the assumption is that the South Korean company will be showing off not only its three main Galaxy S10 handsets, but the revolutionary folding smartphone and the blindingly fast 5G-enabled S10 X. And now it looks like the Galaxy S10 family is going to be fast-tracked for a March release. Following the launch on February 20th, the three core handsets (the S10 Plus, the S10, and the presumptively named S10 E) will go on sale on March 5th, according to South Koreans ET News. The 5G version of the Galaxy S10 (potentially the Galaxy S10 X) will go on sale towards the end of March - potentially on the 29th - in 5G-enabled markets, with a roll out depending on network capabilities. Sam Mobile reports: The Galaxy S10 X will reportedly be released on March 29 for more than 1.8 million won or $1,600. It will only be available in markets where 5G networks have gone live, obviously. As far as the other models are concerned, all three are said to be released on March 8. Thats 16 days after the Galaxy S10 is unveiled on February 20 in San Francisco. Some of you may remember that the Galaxy S9 hit stores around 18 days after it was announced. Prices for the entry-level Galaxy S10 Lite will start at 900,000 won or $800 going up to 1.6 million won or $1,430 for the Galaxy S10+. Given historical patterns, I would assume that there will be a period for pre-orders to be taken in the week after the launch of the S10 family by carriers throughout the world (some have started gathering names already, such as EE in the UK. No doubt more details will pop up ahead of the official unveiling next month. Now read more about how Samsung is upgrading the fingerprint scanner in the Galaxy S10 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2019/01/14/samsung-galaxy-s10-plus-lite-release-date-launch-pre-order-sale/ |
Which Is Not Like The Other? Andy Grove/Intel, Coca-Cola, or Theresa May/Brexit? | Andy Grove and Coca-Cola recognized the need for strategic changes and pivoted. Theresa May did not. That failure is going to lead to a lot of pain for a lot of people. Dont do that. Recognize a major change with an enduring impact for what it is and hit a restart button early and decisively. Andy Grove, Intel and the change from memory chips to microprocessors Its one of the great pivot stories. Intel made memory chips. They were getting pummeled by cheaper chips from Japan. What would the new guy do? The answer was get rid of the leadership team and get out of the memory business. So Grove, and his CEO, Gordon Moore made the change themselves. Coca-Cola and the change from recruiting to managing bottlers From the dawn of soft-drink bottling until the early 20th century, the Coca-Cola sales force was focused on signing up bottlers to manufacture, distribute and market Coca-Cola across the United States. They did it. They filled all the white space across the country. When they had accomplished that mission, the head of sales called everyone into a national sales meeting, congratulated them, and fired them all. He explained that their mission was complete and their services were no longer needed. He then told them he would be creating a new salesforce the next day, focused on helping existing bottlers grow their business. They were welcome to return the next day and apply for new jobs. Theresa May and the failure of her Brexit strategy All the reports suggest the UK Parliament is going to vote against Theresa Mays Brexit proposal this evening. Shes seen this coming for a while. Shes tried to get the EU to change the terms and failed. Shes tried to negotiate with different factions within parliament and failed. Yet shes persisted in playing out the hand she was dealt. The lesson: Recognize the need for a restart and move quickly and decisively Changes are either major or minor and temporary or enduring. Stealing a page from the Gore Company, define major changes as a hit below the water line with the potential to sink your boat a material or existential threat to your organization. Minor change/temporary impact: Control the damage while staying focused on your priorities. Control the damage while staying focused on your priorities. Minor change/enduring impact: Factor into your ongoing organizational evolution. Factor into your ongoing organizational evolution. Major change/temporary impact. This is a crisis or opportunity that must be managed. Deploy the incident management and response plan that you already have in place. (And have it in place ahead of time.) This is a crisis or opportunity that must be managed. Deploy the incident management and response plan that you already have in place. (And have it in place ahead of time.) Major change/enduring impact. Hit a restart button at this major point of inflection and change your strategy, organization and operations all together, all at the same time. The #1 regret senior leaders have looking back on their career is not moving fast enough. When youre faced with a major change with an enduring impact, move decisively and quickly like Intel and Coca-Cola. We may never know what really kept Theresa May from changing her approach. Sometimes leaders get stuck. Sometimes they feel they have to follow orders and lead their battalions into the valley of death. Sometimes they feel obligated to stick with their campaign promises and follow through on Brexit or build a wall. Those stories rarely end well. Continuing to do the same thing and expecting a different result is not productive. If things arent working, if your circumstances have changed, or if your ambitions have changed, youre at a point of inflection. Hit a restart button and change your strategies, organization and operations all together and all at the same time. Leadership is about inspiring and enabling others to do their absolute best together to realize a meaningful and rewarding shared purpose. If your current strategies, organization and operations arent going to realize your purpose, change them. Dont be like Theresa May. Be like Andy Grove or Coca-Cola. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgebradt/2019/01/15/which-is-not-like-the-other-andy-groveintel-coca-cola-or-theresa-maybrexit/ |
Can we trust the government to judge what's beautiful? | The UK government has resolved to put beauty first to create better homes. Shame no one can agree on what that means The UK government thinks it has got to the heart of the housing crisis: the problem is, new homes just arent beautiful enough. Build beautifully and get permission, says the housing minister, Kit Malthouse. Build beautifully and communities will actually welcome developers, rather than drive them out of town at the tip of a pitchfork. If only housebuilders would make their product more visually appealing, the thinking goes, then opposition to them would fade away, more homes would be built, prices would drop and we would all live happily ever after. The simple solution, Malthouse says, is putting beauty at the heart of our housing and communities policy. Hence the new Building Better, Building Beautiful commission, which was established in November to interrogate the question of beauty in the built environment and met with howls of outrage and derisive sneers. Its not hard to see why. A parliamentary debate that preceded the announcement played out like a parody of Victorian mores, as successive MPs lined up to lament the state of modern architecture. Whereas people once anticipated development with joy, they now very often look on it with despair John Hayes The long-dead Le Corbusier was attacked as a man who is responsible for many bad things, planners were accused of having not learned their lesson since the war, and it was brazenly asserted that where modern design does succeed, that is largely by accident. Some reached for the words of Philip Larkin, while others clutched at scientific research on how the specialised cells in the hippocampal region of our brains are attuned to beautiful geometry. Matters werent helped when Malthouse tweeted a photo of a glazed commercial building on Oxford Street and a neoclassical stone courthouse in Alabama with the caption: Both built in the last 10 years. One will stand for centuries, one wont. If the comment was intended to troll the architecture profession, it worked. The minister was slammed for being out of touch, anti-progress and pandering to rightwing populist nostalgia. Marble Arch Park House in London, referenced by Kit Malthouse on Twitter. Photograph: flik47/Getty Images Its easy to dismiss the endeavour as a distraction from the real issues at stake, such as developers monopolies on land or the absence of a mass council house-building programme. There is more to housing quality than beauty alone, but if there is indeed a gulf between what developers are building and what people want, then it makes sense to look at how this might be bridged. These questions will be tackled in a forthcoming series of public debates at Central Saint Martins art college in London, intended to raise the level of discussion beyond the realms of parliamentary platitudes. The chair of the Building Better, Building Beautiful commission, Sir Roger Scruton, will thrash it out with housebuilders, modern architects will debate with traditionalists, while planners will wrangle with developers and campaigners. One persons masterpiece may be anothers carbuncle. Poundbury, Dorset a traditional village inspired by the Prince of Wales. Photograph: Dave Penman/Rex Features Some campaign groups, such as Create Streets, swear by their methods of public polling, in which people are shown photographs of different kinds of urban environments and asked which they prefer. Others think that artificial intelligence is the answer. Researchers at Warwick Business Schools Data Science Lab have developed a deep learning model that can determine what makes a location beautiful, based on a database of 200,000 images of places in the UK that had been rated for their beauty by 1.5 million people on the website ScenicOrNot. The groundbreaking result that meadows and old monuments are nice, while motorways and hospitals are not, doesnt suggest that well be seeing a future of automated urban planning any time soon. Perhaps aware of the difficulties ahead, Malthouse has said: Its totally critical to our mission of building 300,000 homes that we get this design conversation this beauty conversation correct. If parliament is incapable of debating the question with the rigour it deserves, then come and make your voice heard at the alternative public forum. | https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2019/jan/15/can-we-trust-the-government-to-judge-whats-beautiful |
Can Andrew Wiggins emerge as a second star in Minnesota? | Andrew Wiggins performance in Minnesotas 119-117 win over against the Thunder on Jan. 8 provided every reason to buy stock in the former No. 1 overall pick. The fifth-year swingman poured in 40 points and 10 rebounds at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, attempting 18 free throws in the victory. Wiggins was a force to be reckoned with from the opening tip. He bruised his way to the tin and was decisive off the bounce. His defensive energy bumped from middling to menacing, setting the tone against a physical Thunder team. The effort was impressive, albeit far too rare as Wiggins enters the first season of his five-year, $148 million extension with the Timberwolves. Wiggins talent isnt in question. The Toronto native cruised to the top pick in 2014 despite falling in the second round of the NCAA tournament with Kansas in 2014, entering the league with the moniker Maple Jordan. But performances like last weeks eruption in Oklahoma City are largely exception, not the norm. And at a hefty $148 million, Wiggins shortcomings are a glaring issue for a middling roster. Now in year five, Wiggins is at a crossroads. MAHONEY: Capela's Injury Puts More Pressure on Harden to Carry Rockets Wiggins third season provided a window into his All-Star potential. He jumped to 23.6 points per game, making 1.3 threes per game with a career-best 107 offensive rating. The jump shot was a work in progress, but it was treated as a secondary weapon paired with his ruthless drives to the tin. Wiggins is an elite leaper and strong, too, difficult to bump off his spot inside the foul line. He mirrored Kawhi Leonard at times inside ten feet, burying his shoulder to create space before rising up to flick in a short jumper. The outline of a strong offensive force was there. The regression has been significant. The former Jayhawk is down to 17.9 points per game in 2018-19, 39th of 47 players with a usage rate of 24% or more. Wiggins is a high-volume pedestrian scorer, littered with inefficiencies. Michael Reaves/Getty Images Its hard to find where on the floor Wiggins actually excels. His field goal percentage on shots at the tin is 65th out of the 75 players with at least 250 drives. Of the 41 players with at least 200 pull-up attempts, Wiggins ranks 40th in field goal percentage and 31st in three-point percentage. Hes 53rd in effective field goal percentage out of the 59 players with a usage rate over 24%. Wiggins isnt a creator, either. Hes 50th in assist rate among the 59 players noted above. By nearly every metric, Wiggins is below average compared to those who earn a similar share of opportunities. Despite the staggering statistics, it takes a discernable level of talent to earn such a large share of possessions. And it would be unfair to dismiss Wiggins as a lost cause. It wasnt regarded as a disaster when he was given $150 million in October 2017. With Towns in tow, latching onto Wiggins as a foundational wing seemed like a natural fit. Yet, as the Timberwolves sit under .500 in 2018-19 after a first-round exit last year, the questions about Wiggins long-term viability will fester. The tape matches the metrics in Wiggins subpar season. Ideally hed thrive off the gravity demanded by Towns. The big center could hold court at the foul line or on the block, leaving Wiggins free to wreak havoc as a cutter and slasher. But watch Towns operate in crunch time, and Wiggins disappears. Hes often stationed in the corner as little-more than a perimeter outlet, watching the ball as Minnesotas true headliner goes to work. The Wolves operate as a medley of one-man bands. Towns will eat up the shot clock for a couple possessions, then cede an opportunity to Wiggins or Derrick Rose. All three are talented, but the offense is lesser than the sum of its parts. Much of the blame could go to Tom Thibodeau, though Minnesotas top scorers shouldnt be absolved. SHARP: Thibodeau Is Gone, But Wolves Have Bigger Problems The stereotypes about Wiggins offensive game are unfortunately true. The decried 18-footers show up more often than they should. He doesnt attack the rim with fervor for four quarters, let alone two. Wiggins has no problem dribbling 20 seconds of the shot clock, nor does he take issue with jacking a jumper in the first five seconds of a possession. Perhaps interim head coach Ryan Saunders coaxes the best out of Wiggins. It would be a significant turnaround. Wiggins flaws would be manageable as a rotational wing, or even any player south of a nine-figure contract. But Minnesota wont stay afloat with this version of Wiggins. $148 million is a mammoth price tag for a non-All-Star, the kind of mistake that lands front office members in a new line of work. Wiggins is in the class of high-priced cap-sheet liabilities, players whose prior production and prestige gave way to contracts now seen as eyesores. The Wizards will struggle to deal John Wall. The Clippers found a taker for Blake Griffin. Minnesota could be hard-pressed for a suitor. Those trade conversations will be on hold for at least the rest of 2018-19. Wiggins is young and with a new coach, previously showing All-Star ability. He very well could find his groove alongside Towns down the stretch, driving drive Minnesota to a second-straight playoff appearance for the first time since 2003-04. Though as it presently stands, Wiggins is an expensive disappointment, in need of a reboot to flip a career on the wrong track. | https://www.si.com/nba/2019/01/15/andrew-wiggins-karl-anthony-towns-minnesota-timberwolves-second-star |
Is Robin Lopez What The Golden State Warriors Need? | News broke yesterday that Chicago Bulls center Robin Lopez has been attempting to negotiate a buyout in order to become a free agent and sign with the Golden State Warriors. The Bulls so far arent playing ball, but Lopez has until March 1st to persuade them otherwise. For the Warriors part, General Manager Bob Myers has already said they are looking for a big man with their final roster spot to strengthen the squad for the playoffs. Its easy to see why Lopez might interest the Warriors. At only 30 years old, hes a legitimate 7-footer who can bang on the boards and play solid defense. Hes averaged 8.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game over his career, and has solid playoff experience from his time with the Portland Trailblazers. Hes exactly the kind of no mistakes role player Steve Kerr loves around his stars. Since Damian Jones went down with a likely season-ending injury, the Warriors have been light in the middle. In the next few days, Golden State will get a huge boost in the middle as DeMarcus Cousins finally makes his debut. After being out for an entire year with a debilitating injury it will take Cousins time to get back to full strength. The Warriors will be patient, but if all goes according to plan Cousins will start the game playing the 5-6 minutes Andrew Bogut, Zaza Pachulia, and JaVale McGee used to play, and then fill the role David West used to play anchoring the second unit to start the second and fourth quarters. Overall if the Warriors follow that rotation pattern Cousins will likely end up playing around 25 minutes a game. When the playoffs roll around matchups will dictate a certain amount of what the Warriors do. Expect Cousins to play more in a Denver Nuggets matchup against Nikola Jokic, or an Oklahoma City Thunder team sporting Steven Adams. The Hamptons 5 Beyond that, the Warriors best lineup in crucial moments will probably still be the Hamptons 5 of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green. Dont be surprised to see that lineup finishing games when it really counts. Last year, despite a pedestrian regular season, that was the Warriors most used lineup in the playoffs (129 minutes across 9 games) and sported a monstrous net rating of +23.9 (up from +4.6 in the regular season). That was even more deadly than it was the previous year in the playoffs where that lineup finished with a +22.4 net rating. This year the lineup has a net rating of +11.5, proving it still has the juice it needs even in January. Thats undoubtedly helped by Iguodala shooting 36.3% from three and looking considerably more spry than last season. For all the worries about Draymond Greens shooting percentages, he looks good defensively so far this year and was one of the biggest factors behind the Warriors dramatically flipping the switch to start the playoffs last year. The Hamptons 5 is the Warriors bread and butter. Theyre not going to go away from that unless the matchup dictates it or Cousins is really rolling. Once the 10-15 minutes per game for that lineup is factored in with the 25-30 minutes Cousins will get, there are only 10-15 minutes max for another center. Well despite the received wisdom the Warriors are actually a bit deeper than they were last year. First up is Kevon Looney. The fourth-year big man, who proved himself in last years playoffs while leading all non-Green centers in minutes played, has taken another leap this year. With his lengthy limbs, keen sense of timing and positioning, and defensive versatility, hes exactly what Kerr loves in a role player. Hes featured in this years most used lineup to date, replacing Iguodala alongside the four stars. That lineup has played 216 minutes across 24 games and posted a net rating of +20.9. Looneys ability to switch onto smaller players and not bite on pump fakes is invaluable against teams like the Houston Rockets. He will get minutes in the playoffs. Then theres Jonas Jerebko, who has proven much more impactful than many expected. His shooting and aggressiveness make him a valuable rotation asset, even if he doesnt possess the ability to switch on to the perimeter defensively that Looney does. Still, hes currently averaging around 20 minutes per game and has demonstrated in several big matchups that he can stay on the floor against the better teams. Finally, theres Jordan Bell. Hes jumpier than Looney and has not progressed as much as the Warriors hoped this year. But he still played some important minutes last year in the Western Conference Finals and NBA Finals. His athleticism is still valuable to this team in specific matchups even if Kerr doesnt quite trust him as much as the other reserves. Despite his undoubted talent, Lopez would really just be an insurance policy for Cousins. He doesnt have the mobility and versatility of a Looney or offer the spacing of a Jerebko, and hes not going to be able to play at the pace of the Hamptons 5. Given Cousins is coming off such a long layoff, and a tricky injury, it may well be sensible to have that insurance. But by the time the deadline of March 1st for players signed to still be eligible for a playoff roster rolls around, the Warriors will have had about six weeks to evaluate Cousins progress and how he fits with their style of play. The Warriors may have another problem The Warriors may have a bigger problem that they need to keep an eye on. Last year in the playoffs they were almost undone when Andre Iguodala went down with an injury against the Houston Rockets. A combination of Shaun Livingstons steady play and Nick Youngs not unsteady play saw them through in the end. But it was a lot closer than any Warriors fan would care to admit. This year Shaun Livingston appears to be showing his age a bit more. His shooting percentage is down at 45.5%, having always averaged over 50% for his Warriors career. Those mid-range turnaround jumpers that were once so automatic are falling short or rimming out. Given his lack of three-point shooting if hes not a scoring threat from the post, then hes killing the spacing. Livingston may not be the flashiest name on the Golden State roster but his 15 minutes per game can be crucial to their chances. Hes also the only player who can really slot into the wing position if the soon-to-be 35-year-old Iguodala goes down with an injury. If Livingston is slowing down the Warriors have a potential issue that could come back to bite them in the playoffs. The Warriors do have Alfonzo McKinnie, who has made the whole Patrick McCaw situation much more bearable, but he is completely unproven in the playoffs. They also have Quinn Cook who can man the back-up point guard position in spot minutes and provide some shooting depth. However, Cook doesnt possess the defensive length the Warriors really need against the top teams. The Warriors options For all the attraction of a Lopez signing the truth is that if theres a vulnerability in the death star the Warriors have assembled, it may well be somewhere on the wing rather than the middle. The challenge is that there arent really any obvious buyout candidates that are the same caliber as Lopez in that position. The West is filled with teams one run away from a playoff spot, meaning that its unlikely teams will give up their veterans early. Of the veterans on teams clearly out of the mix, Trevor Ariza has already been traded, Knicks swingman Courtney Lee still has another year left on his contract, and Jeremy Lin is a point guard. So in the end, the Warriors may well wise to just go with obtaining the best player available with their final roster spot. That probably means Lopez if he is able to make it to the buyout market. In the meantime, theyll spend the next few weeks assessing how Cousins looks upon his return and hoping to see if any other options shake free. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmurray/2019/01/15/is-robin-lopez-what-the-golden-state-warriors-need/ |
What Does 2019 Have In Store For XR? | 2018 was packed with great moments for XR, but I think 2019 could top it. There are going to be a number of developments and releases this year that will have a significant impact on the immersive industries. Here's what Im particularly excited about Vive Pro Eye The Vive Pro Eye - which incorporates eye-tracking capability - is an exciting addition to HTC's headset family. FOVE Inc. was a pioneer of modern eye-tracking technology, but this is the first weve seen from a heavy-hitter of the VR world. The eye tracking can be leveraged for in-app controls, analysis of user attention, and foveated rendering. Foveated rendering, a technique that creates sharper images by blurring the scenery around the user's gaze, is particularly exciting. This allows us to focus most of the processing power where it contributes most to detail while saving processing resources elsewhere. Announced at CES, the headset is due to hit the market in April, aimed at enterprise customers. Oculus Quest Shipping in the spring of 2019 for $399, the Oculus Quest looks to deliver not only on the technological front but on content too. The Quests main differentiator is Oculus Insight, a technology that powers the devices inside-out tracking capabilities. Effectively, what the consumer is going to get is proper room-scale VR, at a fraction of the cost, and a whole host of great content. Mixed Reality From various leaks, we know that Microsoft is working on a new HoloLens which will be a standalone PC with its own Qualcomm processor - the Snapdragon 850. We also believe Microsoft is working on making this headset less bulky and more affordable. Expect more announcements and the release of HoloLens 2 later this year. Last year, Magic Leap released its first product and now were going to see what developers have been making with it. The developer fund, which gave up to $500,000 in grant money to ML One projects last year, has greatly helped. The best experiences will be showcased at L.E.A.P. Conference this year. WebAR Up until now, the user has had to download a standalone app (or integrate functionality into an existing app) and in some cases use a marker to launch AR content. WebAR promises to take away the hassle of downloading an app or a marker. Now, users can view AR simply through a web browser. Sony Pictures recently released an AR experience for Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. The application lets users interact with the superhero, take pictures, and even share them to social media. And its all web-based (no pun intended). The AR landscape is changing at an incredible pace, with the technology only getting more impressive. Location Based Entertainment Consumer spend on LBE is expected to reach $809 million by 2022. The ability to access cinematic quality production values, a physical space purpose-built for immersive gameplay, and the high entertainment factor make for a compelling pitch to consumers. Like cinemas, LBE gives participants an experience not easily replicated in the home, allowing them to scratch their VR itch without much investment. With the Hollywood giants embracing LBE and interesting partnerships forming, the future of this category is truly exciting. Not only is LBE providing fantastic introductions to VR for novices, but its driving interest in the industry as a whole. Niantic's AR Platform Niantic is an augmented reality startup unicorn, thanks to the success of Pokmon GO. Its next big release will be Harry Potter: Wizards Unite, speculated to be out this Spring/Summer. The Niantic Real World Platform - the AR cloud platform that enables Niantic to integrate multiplayer experiences, persistent content, and real-world occlusion into mobile AR games and apps - is being opened up to the masses. Now that is exciting! | https://www.forbes.com/sites/solrogers/2019/01/15/what-does-2019-have-in-store-for-xr/ |
Can Fitbit Stock Finally Get Things Right in 2019? | One of this young year's surprising winners is Fitbit (NYSE: FIT). The pioneer of wearable gadgetry has risen 19% so far in 2019, paving the way for what could be its first full year of trading with a positive return. Fitbit has been a bag of hurt for its shareholders since going public at $20 four summers ago. The shares initially rallied, but the stock has clocked in with double-digit percentage slides in its first three full years on the market. 2016: Down 75% 2017: Down 22% 2018: Down 13% Waning consumer interest in its once-trendy fitness trackers and an initially lukewarm result to Fitbit's push into smartwatches have weighed on the shares, but momentum may finally be on its side. Let's take a look at what is driving Fitbit's revival. Julianne Hough jumping rope wearing a Fitbit bracelet. More Julianne Hough sports a Fitbit. Image source: Fitbit. Keeping up the pace There were several moments through 2018 when it seemed as if Fitbit was finally ready to shift out of reverse, and the biggest catalyst came on Halloween, when the wearables bellwether served up a blowout financial report. Revenue rose a mere 0.3%, but it broke a sorry streak that consisted of seven consecutive quarters of year-over-year revenue dips. Wall Street was expecting the streak to stretch to eight financial reports with negative top-line growth. Analysts were also bracing for a small quarterly deficit, but Fitbit surprised them with a modest profit for the period. Folks angling for more active lifestyles didn't return to Fitbit's fitness-monitoring bracelets. The real sales turnaround came from Fitbit's second run at the smartwatch market, this time pricing its wrist huggers more competitively than the runaway market leader. Smartwatch sales are now accounting for nearly half of Fitbit's revenue, up from a thin 10% slice of the top-line pie a year earlier. A negligible uptick in revenue and an earlier-than-expected return to profitability aren't enough to cement a turnaround at Fitbit, but the market's starting to get excited. Analysts are modeling 4% growth in revenue after a flat but profitable holiday quarter. The stock would've probably moved higher for all of 2018 if the general market hadn't corrected sharply in December, but there's no use in crying over spilled downticks. There's a lot now riding on the success of Fitbit's Versa smartwatch, and that's not necessarily a good thing. Fitbit dominated the fitness tracker market, but it's hard to remain relevant as a distant silver medalist in the smartwatch market. The device has helped stabilize sales growth, but sooner or later Fitbit is going to cash in on some of the health tech initiatives it's been hoping will be there to carry the baton to the next runner in this race. Fitbit is off to a strong start in 2019, and that's clear by its refreshingly positive stock action. Keeping the good times coming will be the real challenge, though, especially since this year's finish line is so far away. More From The Motley Fool Rick Munarriz owns shares of Fitbit. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Fitbit. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. | https://news.yahoo.com/fitbit-stock-finally-things-2019-134500734.html |
Is Amicus Therapeutics' Sharp Reversal Warranted? | What happened Biotech stocks took an absolute beating last month. Shares of the rare-disease company Amicus Therapeutics (NASDAQ: FOLD), for instance, lost over 13% of their value in December, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The silver lining, though, is that this drastic decline wasn't triggered by a company-specific event. Amicus' shares simply trended lower with the overall market last month. As such, it's not entirely surprising that this mid-cap biotech stock has rebounded in tandem with the broader market early in the new year. Amicus' shares, in fact, are up by an astounding 18.8% over just the first 10 days of trading in 2019. A person in a lab coat pointing to a section of a life-sized strand of DNA. More Image Source: Getty Images. So what However, Amicus' strong showing in the first few weeks of the new year isn't solely the result of the market's abrupt change in direction. Investors also appear to be excited about the company's newly released financial guidance for the year. The key highlight here is the projected sales growth for the company's Fabry disease therapy -- known as Galafold -- in fiscal year 2019. Although the therapy wasn't approved until late 2018, the company believes Galafold will go on to rake in somewhere between $160 million and $180 million in sales this year. Now what Galafold's strong commercial launch is important for two overarching reasons. First, this rosy outlook dispels any doubts that the drug would have trouble living up to expectations, which is always a concern for early commercial stage operations like Amicus. Second, Galafold's surging sales will go a long way toward covering the company's other clinical activities, including its newly acquired pipeline of gene therapies for rare diseases and its high-value Pompe disease candidate, AT-GAA. All told, bargain hunters have clearly already taken advantage of Amicus' downturn last month -- evinced by the stock's sharp reversal over the past few weeks. But, with a host of promising new rare-disease therapies under development and Galafold's U.S. commercial launch off to a great start, this red-hot biotech stock might still be worth adding to your portfolio right now. More From The Motley Fool George Budwell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. | https://news.yahoo.com/amicus-therapeutics-apos-sharp-reversal-140000053.html |
Why Is a Q4 Earnings Beat Less Likely for Schlumberger (SLB)? | Schlumberger Limited SLB is expected to report fourth-quarter 2018 earnings on Jan 18, before the opening bell. Last quarter, the companys earnings of 46 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. Also, the company posted an average positive earnings surprise of 3.4% for the last four quarters. Lets see how things are shaping up prior to the announcement. Lets look at the estimate revision trend to get a clear picture of what analysts expect from the earnings release. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents for fourth-quarter earnings has been stable over the last seven days. It reflects a decline of about almost 22.9% from the year-ago quarter. Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $8.13 billion reflects a 0.5% drop from the prior-year quarter. Schlumberger Limited Price and EPS Surprise Schlumberger Limited Price and EPS Surprise | Schlumberger Limited Quote Factors to Consider Through fourth-quarter 2018, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude plunged from a multi-year high of $76.40 a barrel in early October to below $45 in late December, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The overall decline in the commodity price will likely be unfavorable for Schlumberger as oilfield service businesses are positively correlated with crude price. The Houston, TX-based firm expects demand and pricing for North American oilfield services to be weak in the October-to-December quarter, as constraint in pipeline bottleneck problem in the prolific Permian Basin and declining well productivity could hurt crude production volumes. The bearish trend is showing on the Zacks Consensus Estimate for two of the companys major business segments. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Reservoir Characterization segments earnings-before-tax stands at $372 million, lower than $373 million in the prior-quarter. Moreover, for the Production unit, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings stands at $237 million, down from $315 million in the prior-year quarter and $320 million in third-quarter 2018. Earnings Whispers Our proven model does not conclusively show a beat for Schlumberger this earnings season. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below. Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is -2.33%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at 36 cents, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at 37 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before theyre reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. Zacks Rank: Schlumberger carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We caution investors against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) or 5 going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions. Stocks to Consider Though an earnings beat looks uncertain for Schlumberger, here are a few energy firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model. These have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter: | https://news.yahoo.com/why-q4-earnings-beat-less-130601701.html |
Why are Toronto Wolfpack buying into a rugby league club in London? | In 2025, Super League could feature not just Toronto and Toulouse but also New York, Boston, Philadelphia and two clubs from London. Yes. Possibly. Not at all. One of those breakthrough clubs is giving another a potential leg-up. Championship favourites Toronto Wolfpack are buying a stake of League One minnows London Skolars through David Argyle, their principal owner. Skolars chairman and co-founder Hector McNeil explains why. Whether it comes from the Wolfpack or David [Argyle] himself is still to be decided weve left that fairly open. The RFL rules are clear: you can have a shareholding in more than one club but you cant have two controlling interests and theyve defined that as under 25%. Davids vision has never been to take over Skolars. We were looking to do a crowdfunding which would have been the first in rugby league, I think. We wrote to a bunch of high-net worths saying we are looking to go to the next level. That interested David. He felt London is a massive opportunity for any sport. Theres a real journey to go on. Skolars are rugby leagues great unsung heroes. David said: You guys have all done it tough. He likes our permanency here [Skolars have played at New River since 1995], he likes the fact we are anchor tenants, and there could be a longer-term development of the stadium. You cant build property on here so theres no real estate value. We have a five-year lease but the next stage would be to take the place over. Thats an open door. Its a 44-acre site in zone 3 on one of the most iconic addresses in world sport: were actually on White Hart Lane Spurs arent! The name Skolars has roots in a student gag and is confusing to Londoners. At some point David and us both think we will need to rebrand. He thinks we should hang our hat on Wood Green proud. Its an up-and-coming area thats been down on its heels for years, but theres something to build on now. The new Spurs stadium has been having an effect for the last five years. No. Theres no attempt to be a sister club to the Wolfpack. The synergy is to support us in social media and commercial best practice. They have been a breath of fresh air and our figures are going up already. I went to Toronto on a business trip before Christmas and almost every financial company I went to knew David and the Wolfpack. Hes a real player, not a flash in the pan. Hes made a massive impact. Look at the integrity of Toronto. He could have rocked up and said Ive got loads of money, put me in Super League. But he didnt. Facebook Twitter Pinterest London Skolars were founded in 1995. Weve got potential to be Londons number one team. David Argyles view is that rugby league is massively undervalued. The investment you need to punch your weight in rugby league is tiny compared to the costs of competing at the top level in rugby union, let alone football. The level of investment needed is out of my league but its not much. Toronto have said: We are not going to accept the norms. When they go into Super League, the whole game is going to change. The salary cap will have to be torn up. Look at what rugby union have done with the CVC deal. They dont like me saying it but the problem is there are only six clubs of decent size. You can potentially add Toronto to that and maybe Toulouse. There are five or six other clubs who are pretty interchangeable but dont really add much to the value of the sport. Manna from heaven, especially as we are geographically divided. That would be a massive jump from third bottom of League One and gates of 400. Weve been doing it tough. Weve probably been mid-table in terms of budget but this year weve brought in a new cohort of players and the aim is top five, and the year after to put ourselves in the promotion mix. You have to do the steps. Were not doing a Toronto, chucking a load of money at it. Theres no doubt the investment is to get us into Championship, but its a journey. Haringey Borough across the road have done a great job of that. We can learn from them. One of the major outcomes of this has to be a local support base. We havent really established ourselves in the local community. We havent leaned into what London is all about yet. We are going to have to invest in the off-field experience. Set up another academy in London and stop sending our best players to Broncos! Theres so much talent and potential here. Last season, we had 13 or 14 lads who had come through our system, which is unheard of at any club. Saracens are the behemoth of north London rugby. Not officially, but Ive talked to people there. Saracens could run a rugby league academy. They see themselves as something broader than rugby. Theyve already bought into Mavericks netball. It makes sense. They want their facility used. They have the pick of 3,000 union kids and just take the top 30. If they kept the best of the rest, in five years theyd have a rugby league team that would stuff everyone. There must be a lot of synergies around marketing. Our colours are the same! Melbourne Storm are the worlds most successful expansion club but at a cost of 200m to News Corp and the NRL. Buy the sport! Well, not quite. Id want a 10,000-seat entertainment centre at New River, a centre of excellence for rugby league that is used every day by the community that underpins the whole game here. Skolars play a Wigan Warriors XIII at Honorary Artillery Company on 18 January in the Capital Challenge and a London Broncos XIII on 25 January at New River in the London Clash. Follow No Helmets Required on Twitter and Facebook | https://www.theguardian.com/sport/no-helmets-required/2019/jan/15/toronto-wolfpack-buying-rugby-league-club-london-skolars |
Can Titans Derrick Henry begin 2019 like he ended 2018? | CLOSE Henry has rushed for more yards in a two-game span than any player in Titans history. Erik Bacharach, USA TODAY NETWORK Tennessee Derrick Henrys 2018 season can be divvied up into three sections: The bad beginning, the encouraging middle, and the explosive end. Its those final five games that have draped optimism over the Titans running backs future, and the first 11 that serve as a good reminder for how far he came. Henry is the biggest cause for hope. 'A marathon, not a sprint' Lets start at the beginning, when Henry had just 273 rushing yards on 3.3 yards per carry and one touchdown through the first eight games of the season. The former Heisman Trophy winner struggled, routinely voiced frustration in his own performance and took a backseat to Dion Lewis. ESPN reported in November that the Titans were shopping Henry at the trade deadline. Just reading and listening to some of his locker room comments to you guys, he was hard on himself, Titans general manager Jon Robinson said, who would not comment on if the team looked to move Henry at the deadline. He held himself to a higher standard, which is what we ask of all of our players. TITANS REPORT CARD: Grading a wild and (mostly) disappointing 2018 season TITANS' 2018 SUPERLATIVES: Best outfit, coolest venue, most likely to be Batman From Weeks 9-13, there were encouraging signs. Henry, still second fiddle to Lewis, averaged only 8.8 carries over the five-game stretch (compared to Lewis 12.4), but averaged an impressive 4.6 yards per carry with four rushing touchdowns. And then, the explosion: A 238-yard, four-touchdown performance against the Jaguars on Dec. 6 that included a 99-yard touchdown run that will forever live in Titans highlight reels. He followed that by averaging nearly 116 rushing yards, five yards per carry and one touchdown over the final three games of the season. CLOSE Henry's 99-yard rush tied the NFL record. It's the second 99-yard run in league history. Erik Bacharach, USA TODAY NETWORK Tennessee "Its a marathon, not a sprint," Henry said after the season-ending loss to the Colts on Dec. 30. "Its all about how you finish. I didnt start very well. I kept saying that throughout the season, talking to you guys, and I just wanted to finish strong the second half of the season, and thats what I tried to do." Well, things just kind of clicked. The offensive line performed better. Wide receivers blocked well. The Titans coaching staff gave Henry enough carries to build a rhythm. And Henry "was a more decisive runner," Robinson said. "He ran angry. Hes a big fast strong guy thats hard to tackle, and I thought he tried to impose his will on defenders when they tried to tackle him." "I think whether it was one block, one cut, one secondary support block from a receiver, whatever it may be, it probably took a little bit of time to get going," Titans coach Mike Vrabel said. "Things started to come together. We always talk about trying to get them covered upfront, let the runners get going, dont allow penetration. Receivers have to block support. At some point in time, the guy with the ball has to do a little magic. "You look at big plays in this league, 20-yard runs or whatever they may be, 30 percent of them youve got the Xs and Os, and you scheme them up. The other 70 is just the guy being a pro football player, and going and making a play." In the final third of his third season in the league, that finally began to happen with regularity for Henry, who also credited Titans legend Eddie George with helping him get there. The two had a conversation during the Titans' Week 8 bye in which George emphasized being more physical and finishing runs, according to the team's website. "I just wanted advice from somebody I really looked up to," Henry said after cleaning out his locker on Dec. 31. "I felt like he could give me some good advice, be real with me, shoot me straight about what I needed to hear as far as my game. I reached out to Eddie and thats what he did." And now the Titans know what they have in Henry. "I would say that if he started off 2019 like he ended 2018, I think that would be great," Vrabel said. "That would be unbelievable for everybody." Reach Erik Bacharach at [email protected] and on Twitter @ErikBacharach. | https://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/nfl/titans/2019/01/15/derrick-henry-titans-2018/2502787002/ |
What happens to the 62,500 students with special needs during Los Angeles teachers' strike? | CLOSE Students tell us why they skipped school to join their teachers on the picket lines. USA TODAY When Sonia Hernandez explained the Los Angeles teachers' strike to her 10-year-old son with autism, he almost started to cry from distress. "I don't want the teachers to miss school," Daniel told her, his voice changing tone as he immediately stood. "I don't want to go to another class. I want to be in the same classroom with my same classmates." The disruption triggered by the strike that began Monday in the nation's second-largest school district could set back Daniel and thousands of other children with developmental disabilities who need special education and consistency, parents told USA TODAY. About 62,500 students with special needs attend schools in the Los Angeles Unified School District School, said associate superintendent for Special Education Beth Kauffman. Students with developmental disabilities from autism to attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) sometimes need one-on-one aides and services such as behavioral and speech therapy at school. Each follows an individualized education plan defining their goals and needs. But, on Sunday, the day before the strike began in the pouring rain with picketing and protests, some parents told USA TODAY that schools had not provided information about alternate lesson plans that would support their students with disabilities. With three sons on the autism spectrum who attend district schools, Hernandez stayed home with her kids Monday because she worried the strike arrangements would not be safe for them. Automated phone calls notified her that schools planned to group students in auditoriums with supervision, but Hernandez said her boys would be at risk without staff to monitor and help them. Her oldest son Sebastian, 12, has an aide and needs assistance even in small groups. "They're not the best communicators," Hernandez said. "They're not ready to say, 'I'm sick,' 'Somebody pushed me,' 'Somebody kicked me.'" The boys instead worked on assignments from their teachers and did some reading, said Hernandez, not that staying at home reduced their anxiety from facing an uncertain situation at school. It would be naive to think the district would bring in substitute teachers trained to work with kids with autism, she said. During the strike, Kauffman said students with disabilities who need to be in smaller settings will be accommodated. Special education students who mostly follow the general education curriculum, however, will remain with their peers. Based on student needs, Kauffman said, the district sent 200 administrators and staff with experience in special education to support students with disabilities. Kauffman said principals should have communicated with parents to let them know the district would meet special education needs throughout the strike. Meshell Baylor (right) poses for a photo with her son Justin Baylor (left). (Photo: Courtesy of Meshell Baylor) Early Monday morning, Meshell Baylor did not know if the bus would come to take her son Justin, 18, to his district special needs school. When it arrived, she asked the regular aide what would happen with the strike. She said he told her the students would do group activities in a group setting with substitutes. Baylor said she called the school about 10 times from work to check in on Justin, who has autism, but kept getting disconnected. Eventually, Baylor said she emailed the school and got a response from the principal. He assured her that he was fine and sent a picture of him drawing. But, Baylor said she didn't know her son's substitute teacher, the teacher's background, or if the same teacher would be with him all week. "I'm literally in the dark for right now," Baylor said. Justin relies on repetition, Baylor said, so he must continue going to school and needs the teachers and aides he regularly sees. Changes to his schedule throw him off and can make him upset and frustrated for the whole day, she said, meaning he'll need to be redirected with activities such as coloring. More: Tacos for teachers: Food trucks show up to support protestors during LAUSD teacher strike More: Los Angeles teachers plan to strike Monday. Here's what you need to know Meanwhile, Baylor's younger son Christopher, 14, stayed home at his instructional aide's recommendation. Baylor said the aide called her before the school day, telling her the middle school had limited staff for a large student population. But, Christopher will return to school tomorrow, however, because of attendance requirements, she said. Leslie Blanco (right) and her daughter Diamond (left) pose for a picture. (Photo: Courtesy of Leslie Blanco) When Leslie Blanco asked her daughter Diamond, 12, what she did at middle school on Monday, Diamond told her they did not do much at all. The seventh grader has a learning disability, Blanco said, and usually takes home enough homework to last two days. She finished all of her assignments from last week and didn't get any new ones Monday. Kauffman, who worked with special needs students on Monday, said students seemed to be happy and engaged. "Learning is taking place and they're getting their breakfast, they're getting their lunch, they're safe," she said. "Things are looking pretty good at the schools. It seems like it's very organized." CLOSE Los Angeles teachers went on strike Monday after talks failed in the nation's second largest school disctrict. Schools remain open and the district superintendent said 'students are safe and learning'. (Jan 14) AP Read or Share this story: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2019/01/15/los-angeles-teachers-strike-autism-special-needs/2566954002/ | https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2019/01/15/los-angeles-teachers-strike-autism-special-needs/2566954002/ |
Who can really save the Maricopa community colleges? | Opinion: Booting the conservative chairman helps, but the 10-college Maricopa Community College District needs a major reboot. Laurin Hendrix may be removed from his post as MCCCD president. (Photo: Maricopa County Community College District) Booting Laurin Hendrix from the chairmanship of the Maricopa County Community College Districts governing board may not seem like a big deal. But believe me, it is an important step in the fight over saving the 10-college district system from the political scavengers whove been out to dismantle it without laying out a clear vision for the future. Four board members have called for a special meeting Tuesday to elect a new president, six months short of Hendrixs tenure. If they succeed, Hendrix will still remain on the board. At the very least, it sends a glimmer of hope for roughly 1,400 full-time faculty, more than 4,200 adjunct faculty and 200,000 students. MCCD took a dramatic turn to the right For the past year, Hendrix and conservative fellow board members have plunged the community colleges into mayhem by eliminating a 40-year-old meet and confer negotiation process, and ending the football program. The conservative board and chancellor Maria Harper-Marinick, who took over in 2016, have been at war with faculty and staff. In April, the faculty association filed an $850,000 claim against the district, the chancellor and the board. At the same time, supporters of the football program have gone to court as well. But the makeup of the governing board changed when two new members Tom Nerini and Marie Sullivan were elected in November. Though the board remains under Republican control, it appears these folks are a bit more reasonable. Its enough to change direction, said Alfredo Gutierrez, who resigned the chairmanship in 2017. A new president isnt going to immediately get the district out of its mess. But she or he could set a more inclusive agenda and start re-setting the political buttons to have a serious debate over the future of the colleges. The problem with Hendrix and his conservative allies has been their hostile attempt to undo the 10-college system without explaining their mission, their ultimate goal. The colleges are too important to leave to the whims of seven board members. The future of more than 200,000 students is at stake, as well as Arizonas economy that needs a prepared workforce. Now is a good time to begin a meaningful debate over how to transform the colleges into a first-rate institution where no student regardless of economic status is left behind. Elvia Daz is an editorial columnist for The Republic and azcentral. Reach her at 602-444-8606 or [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter, @elviadiaz1. MORE FROM DIAZ: Read or Share this story: https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/elviadiaz/2019/01/15/mcccd-maricopa-community-college-district-board-new-president/2577799002/ | https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/elviadiaz/2019/01/15/mcccd-maricopa-community-college-district-board-new-president/2577799002/ |
Can Williams-Sonoma's Digital Innovation Combat Cost Woes? | Williams-Sonoma, Inc.s WSM solid e-commerce growth, focus on innovation, along with marketing and digitalization techniques are substantial growth drivers. This multi-channel specialty retailers shares have declined 0.9% in the past year, comparing favorably with its industrys fall of 20.3%. Notably, the companys earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the trailing four quarters, with the average being 8.7%. However, high costs associated with continued investments in e-commerce, employment-related expenses, shipping costs and a competitive retail environment remain concerns for this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company. Key Growth Drivers Williams-Sonoma has been increasing its market share on strong e-commerce growth. Its E-commerce segment, which generates 55% of net revenues, operates through e-commerce websites and direct mail catalogs. Moreover, the company saw 9.4% revenue growth in its e-commerce channel in the first nine months of fiscal 2018. The company anticipates a higher growth rate in the upcoming quarters. It focuses to re-platform mobile sites to Progressive Web App (PWA) technology, streamline checkout process, and implement the next-generation of machine learning, on-site search as well as personalization experience. Keeping in mind the ever-changing preference of consumers, Williams-Sonoma seeks to keep innovating its products. The company addresses the demand for new products very efficiently. Also, collaboration with eminent brands and designers is one of its strategies to attract new customers, invent new trends, as well as widen the companys social media reach. Consequently, it has shifted its advertisement spending toward social media campaigns and cross-brand initiatives to increase customer engagement, as well as cross-selling opportunities in its brands. In fact, the companys acquisition of Outward, Inc., a leading 3D imaging and augmented reality platform, will enhance product visualization and design capabilities. In the fiscal third quarter, the company released the customer-facing version of Outward-powered professional design tool called Design Crew Room Planner. It has been strategically transforming the retail business by offloading the fleet of underperforming stores, selectively investing in new stores, along with remodeling and relocating the existing ones. In the fiscal third quarter, Williams-Sonoma remodeled five stores and opened three new stores. Moreover, the company plans to close another 21 stores upon lease expiration in the fiscal fourth quarter. Concerns Despite reporting better-than-expected earnings over the past few quarters, the company reported lower-than-anticipated revenues in the fiscal third quarter. Also, its weak comps apparently disappointed investors. The downside was largely due to port delays in China that led to a delay in fulfilling orders. In the fiscal third quarter, comps grew 3.1%, down from the fiscal second quarters growth rate of 4.6% as well as the prior-year figure of 3.3%. The companys earnings are significantly affected by continued investments in e-commerce. Moreover, higher spending on digital advertising is leading to higher SG&A expenses. Again, higher employment-related and shipping costs are pressurizing the margins of the company. In the first nine months of fiscal 2018, non-GAAP operating margin contracted 30 basis points to 6.9%, owing to the above-mentioned headwinds. Stocks to Consider Some better-ranked stocks in the Retail-Wholesale sector are RH RH, Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI and Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. TAST. While RH sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Darden Restaurants and Carrols both carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of todays Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. RH has an expected earnings growth rate of 175.4% for fiscal 2018. Darden Restaurants earnings for fiscal 2019 are expected to increase 18.9%. Carrols has a projected earnings growth rate of 70% for 2018. Zacks has just released a Special Report on the booming investment opportunities of legal marijuana. Ignited by new referendums and legislation, this industry is expected to blast from an already robust $6.7 billion to $20.2 billion in 2021. Early investors stand to make a killing, but you have to be ready to act and know just where to look. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | https://news.yahoo.com/williams-sonomas-digital-innovation-combat-143102500.html |
Should Canada ban assault-style firearms? | This article was originally published on The Conversation, an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts. Disclosure information is available on the original site. Author: R. Blake Brown, Professor, Saint Marys University The federal government has asked Bill Blair, the minister of border security and organized crime reduction, to consider whether Canada should ban handguns and assault-style rifles. The media has focused mostly on the possibility of banning handguns. The idea of outlawing assault-style weapons, however, deserves more attention because this proposal could help avoid mass shootings but is extremely controversial among firearm owners. The federal governments engagement paper on possible new gun legislation notes that Canadas current firearms legislation contains no definition of an assault rifle. The paper instead offers an illustrative description from the United States Department of Justice: In general, assault weapons are semi-automatic firearms with a large magazine of ammunition that were designed and configured for rapid fire. This definition suggests that the federal government is considering a ban on many semi-automatic rifles that is, guns that can be fired each time the trigger is pulled. Such guns are distinguishable from manual action firearms that require shooters to use a mechanism to reload guns after each discharge, thus limiting rate of fire, and from fully automatic firearms that continue to fire so long as the trigger is depressed. Canada has long prohibited the possession of automatic guns. Some semi-automatic firearms are non-restricted, meaning they can be used for hunting and only require purchasers to obtain a basic possession and acquisition licence. Other semi-automatic guns are classified as restricted weapons. Such guns must be registered and are usually only fired at shooting ranges. Owners must possess a different licence and must have authorization to transport such firearms from one location to another. Historical context of Canadian gun control The interest in stricter regulations for semi-automatic firearms, particularly guns based on modified military weapons, reflects historic changes in gun design, marketing and ownership in Canada. At the beginning of the 19th century, long guns were generally single-shot, muzzle-loaded, smooth-bore weapons that were slow to load, inaccurate beyond approximately 100 metres, and often misfired. In the mid- to late 19th century, however, breech-loading guns replaced muzzle-loaded weapons. New ammunition and rifled barrels made guns more accurate at long ranges. Manufacturers also developed firearms with magazines that could hold several rounds of ammunition to allow more rapid firing. Typically, these guns used lever action or bolt action designs to load fresh cartridges into the chamber of the barrel. When many Canadians think of a hunting rifle, what comes to mind is one of these guns, such as a lever-action Winchester rifle. Generations of Canadians used such guns to hunt deer, moose and other game. Historic department store catalogues suggest that the popularity of semi-automatic guns among hunters is quite new. Stores like Eatons, Simpsons and Army & Navy sold mostly manual-action firearms. In 1975, for instance, Eatons advertised few semi-automatic rifles. As semi-automatic firearms entered the marketplace in larger numbers, however, some Canadians began to express concern about their availability. Semi-automatic rifles have been used in many of the most infamous mass murders in Canadian history, including the murder of 14 women in the 1989 Montreal Massacre, the murder of four RCMP officers in Mayerthorpe, Alberta in 2005, the murder of three RCMP officers in Moncton in 2014, and the Quebec mosque shooting of 2017. Perhaps the first fight over the classification of semi-automatic guns in Canada concerned the AR-15, the firearm used in several recent mass shootings in the United States. AR-15 restricted in Canada In 1977, Ottawa made the AR-15 a restricted weapon. Prime Minister Joe Clarks government reversed that decision, although Ottawa again declared it a restricted firearm in the 1990s. In 2016, Conservative MP Bob Zimmer sponsored a parliamentary petition asking that the AR-15 be reclassified as a non-restricted firearm. The AR-15, however, remains in the restricted category. Canadians must decide how available modern semi-automatic rifles should be. Many semi-automatic firearms based on military gun designs are now sold in Canada at stores such as Cabelas. Manufacturers and retailers often call such weapons modern sporting rifles to make them sound less threatening. Several gun groups like the Canadian Coalition for Firearm Rights argue that all semi-automatics with barrels of a certain length should be non-restricted. They suggest that guns like the AR-15 are restricted simply because of their physical resemblance to military weapons, and have urged politicians to make such guns non-restricted. In 2016, the Conservative Party considered this change at its national convention, and Maxime Bernier has made this proposal part of his Peoples Party platform. Gun control advocates, meanwhile, question why many semi-automatics, including the Ruger Mini-14 used in the Montreal Massacre, are non-restricted. The federal government may prove reluctant to prohibit such guns because of opposition from gun groups. Another option Another option is possible, however. Ottawa could make all semi-automatic rifles restricted weapons. This would force owners to pass a more rigorous screening process, require the registration of such guns and place limits on how theyre used and transported. This is not a new idea. In 1977, the Canadian Association of Chiefs of Police claimed that semi-automatic guns were basically designed as an instrument of war and that they had no sporting use either in the cultural or recreational sense. The association thus urged Ottawa to restrict all semi-automatic weapons as a category. Ottawa refused to do it. But recent mass shootings in Canada have shown that such guns, if misused, are dangerous to the public and to law enforcement. Legislators might well keep in mind the words of A.J. Somerset, author of Arms: The Culture and Credo of the Gun. He warns that as long as semi-automatic, assault-style rifles are widely available in Canada, a massacre like the 2016 nightclub shooting in Orlando, Fla., is not simply a U.S. nightmare on the news; its a shadow falling over us, a possibility we cant ignore. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Disclosure information is available on the original site. Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/should-canada-ban-assault-style-firearms https:/ | https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/should-canada-ban-assault-style-firearms |
Why Did the Border Patrol Union Switch Its Position on the Wall? | In advocating for border security, President Donald Trump has repeatedly sought to enlist Border Patrol agents and their union, the Washington Post reports, even bringing union leaders for Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement to the White House to tout the wall. That isnt surprising in one sense: Lots of politicians use uniformed law-enforcement officers as political props. But in another sense, it is rather strange. Typically, unions zealously oppose anything that makes the labor of their members less necessary. The Luddites smashed automated looms. The grocery-store checkers are against self-checkout kiosks. The fast-food workers dont want touch-screen ordering. The most charitable explanation is that members of the union earnestly believe that Trumps desired wall is in the best interest of the United States, regardless of its effect on their personal interests as laborers. Thats the impression Trump wants to create by touting their endorsement: that the men and women actually patrolling the border, with all the attendant expertise their daily work confers, believe that the sort of barrier hes advocating for will help them achieve their mission. | https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/01/trump-nbpc/580237/?utm_source=feed |
When it comes to rates, what are central banks going to do next? | A slowdown in the world economy, the trade war and skittish financial markets are forcing policy-makers including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to express fresh caution about their scope for tightening monetary policy. The Peoples Bank of China is also pledging support for its economy. Here is Bloomberg Economics quarterly review at 24 of the top central banks, which together set policy for almost 90 per cent of the global economy. We outline the issues they face in 2019 and how they might respond. What Our Economists Say: Heightened uncertainty about the trajectory for policy normalization and reduced divergence between the Fed and the rest are set to characterize the 2019 central bank outlook. Tom Orlik That outlook marks a change from last year where a majority of central banks raised rates and the European Central Bank ceased buying assets. Of course, if economies weather the latest challenges, policy-makers may need to rethink anew. Economists predict a hike late in the year, though investors dont expect one until 2020. Much will depend on how the 19-nation economy copes with risks from protectionism and volatility in emerging and financial markets. Mario Draghis term expires in October, meaning he may leave without raising rates as president. Jockeying for his job has already started, with a decision by governments likely after European Parliament elections in May. European Central BankCurrent deposit rate: -0.4%Forecast for end of 2019: -0.25%The euro area reached a turning point for monetary stimulus when the ECB capped quantitative easing at the end of 2018. A slowing economy and sub-target inflation means the central bank will stay supportive. It intends to keep interest rates at record lows at least through the summer of this year. What Our Economists Say: The Feds communication campaign preaching policy patience calmed the markets down. Yet, just a little patience will not alter the Feds hiking bias. The real fed funds rate barely crossed into positive territory in the fourth quarter after sitting in the red since the Great Recession. There is ample room for the Fed to continue removing policy accommodation, especially if the pace of core inflation picks up above the central banks target. We expect two rate hikes in 2019. Yelena Shulyatyeva Powell has since dialed back his message, assuring markets he would be flexible and patient. Many Fed watchers now believe U.S. policy-makers are unlikely to raise rates before June unless data surprises to the upside. U.S. Federal ReserveCurrent federal funds rate (upper bound): 2.5%Forecast for end of 2019: 3%The Fed spooked markets at the end of 2018 with a projection for two rate hikes in 2019, based on a more optimistic outlook for the economy than investors held. Policy-makers pointed to forecasts continued strong growth and jobs gains, while investors fretted over slowing global growth and the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China. Contributing to the unease, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 21 that President Donald Trump had discussed the possibility of firing Fed Chairman Powell out of frustration over the Feds gradual tightening campaign. Bank of JapanCurrent policy-rate balance: -0.1%Forecast for end of 2019: -0.1%The BOJ faces a huge test in 2019 as inflation falls further below its 2 per cent target, exposing the limits of its massive monetary stimulus program. Some economists see a risk of the core consumer price index falling below zero as cheaper energy and mobile-phone charges undermine BOJ policies. Januarys flash crash in the currency market, which brought a sharp and unwelcome strengthening in the yen, underscores how much is beyond the central banks control. What Our Economists Say: Inflation has plunged on oil costs, posing a risk to pay settlements, and the economy has slowed. These developments call for policy caution from the ECB. Assuming growth stabilizes around trend and President Draghi passes the baton to a continuity candidate, we expect a hike to the deposit rate to come in December 2020. Still, the risks are skewed toward a delayed liftoff. Jamie Murray While stimulus continues to weigh down profits at commercial banks and distorts the bond market, a majority of BOJ watchers expect Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to keep his current yield-curve settings in place at least through the end of 2019, with the short-term rate locked at minus 0.1 per cent and the 10-year bond yield target at around zero per cent. Bond purchases are likely to be pared back further, while the BOJs presence in the market for exchange-traded funds will depend on whether stocks need propping up. Tweaks to reduce policy side effects are possible, but on balance the BOJ is expected to drift further from its peers as they chart a return to precrisis policies. The looming hike to the sales tax may also complicate matters. What Our Economists Say: The BOJ will need to maintain easing in 2019, with inflation weak and growth under pressure. The threat of renewed yen strength as U.S. Treasury yields retreat will also keep it on guard. That said, sustaining stimulus may grow more challenging. Financial imbalances are increasing one reason to pull back. Whats more, lower U.S. yields are putting downward pressure on JGB yields and the further they fall, the less the need for BOJ purchases. A challenge ahead for Governor Kuroda will be to finding a balance between two camps on the policy board the reflationists, and those more concerned about the risks from the BOJs policy. Yuki Masujima Bank of EnglandCurrent bank rate: 0.75%Forecast for end of 2019: 1%Mark Carney is starting his final full year as Bank of England governor before he leaves in January 2020. He can expect the central banks outlook to continue to be dominated by Brexit, especially after the U.K. formally leaves the European Union on March 29. As the deadline nears and the chance of a chaotic exit rises, investors have bet therell be no rate increases in the next 12 months, though economists foresee at least one being squeezed in. Carney has warned that a no-deal Brexit could drive up inflation that requires higher borrowing costs. If the government can get a deal signed in time, the market outlook could quickly be rewritten. What Our Economists Say: With less than three months until the U.K., Brexit uncertainty is at fever pitch. The Bank of England wont lift rates in that environment. We remain of the view that Brexit will be orderly. If it is, the central bank is likely to waste no time lifting rates the first hike is likely in May and another should follow in November. Dan Hanson Bank of CanadaCurrent overnight lending rate: 1.75%Forecast for end of 2019: 2.25%The Bank of Canada is sticking to its view that more interest rates increases will be needed on top of five hikes over the past two years, but there seems to be a lot less urgency than there was a few months ago. Canadas oil-producing regions were hit hard by last years slide in crude prices, leading the BOC to sharply mark down the near-term outlook for the economy at its latest rate decision. It also softened its tone on future moves, saying they would only happen over time. Still, the soft patch in growth is seen as a temporary one, and policy-makers expect the economy to rebound later this year putting them back on the hiking path. What Our Economists Say: Increasing global risks and slumping energy prices should keep the Bank of Canada on hold for all of 2019. The housing market and consumer spending may be moderating more than expected and wage growth has softened recently. This reduces the urgency for the central bank to stay ahead of inflationary pressures resulting from strong economic growth and a historically tight labour market last year. Tim Mahedy Peoples Bank of ChinaCurrent 1-year best lending rate: 4.35%Forecast for end of 2019: 4.35%So far it has held off cutting its benchmark rate, but the PBOC is expected to further ease monetary policy in 2019 as the economy faces a deepening slowdown and the trade conflict with the U.S. The central bank said itll keep monetary policy prudent while striking an appropriate balance between tightening and loosening, implying a slightly looser stance than 2018 as it ratchets up targeted stimulus. If the Fed turns more dovish, the PBOC will face less downward pressure on the currency, simplifying its policy considerations. What Our Economists Say: The PBoC announced on Jan. 4 to cut the reserve requirement ratio by 100 basis points, to be implemented in two steps. The central bank also recently widened the company coverage of its targeted RRR cuts. In the PBoCs annual work meeting, the central bank emphasized to keep liquidity reasonably ample and market interest rates reasonably stable. The central bank is expected to combine economywide RRR cuts with measures aimed at unclogging the channels for monetary policy transmission, particularly in supporting small and private firms. Chang Shu Reserve Bank of IndiaCurrent repo rate: 6.5%Forecast for end of 2019: 6.5%Indias central bank under a new governor Shaktikanta Das is likely to prepare markets for an interest-rate cut as inflation undershoots the 4 per cent medium term target and growth slows. Weakening consumption due to tighter financial conditions, uncertainty over investments ahead of a general election in spring this year and risks to exports from global headwinds are likely to see the Reserve Bank under Das, adopt a more dovish stance on monetary policy in the coming months. Investors in the swap markets are pricing virtually no change in the repo rate, a far cry from early October when they were factoring in nearly 100 basis points of hikes to 7.5 per cent. That is partly because oil, Indias biggest import, has slumped and the rupee, Asias worst performing major currency in 2018, has stabilized. Along with expectations that the Fed may pause in its rate tightening cycle, external risks to the economy have receded, prompting the central bank to train its attention in domestic factors like slowing growth and inflation. What Our Economists Say: The Reserve Bank of Indias current stance of calibrated tightening increasingly at odds with falling inflation and slowing growth is no longer tenable. With inflation continuing to undershoot its target, the central bank is likely to veer policy toward a pro-growth stance ahead. We expect the RBI to deliver a 25 basis points rate cut during its February review, reverting its policy stance to neutral. We expect the new governor to correct the undue hawkish bias of the central bank, under his predecessor Urjit Patel, in favour of a more data-dependent approach in 2019. Abhishek Gupta Central Bank of BrazilCurrent Selic target rate: 6.5%Forecast for end of 2019: 7.25%Central bank chief nominee Roberto Campos Neto will be in a comfortable position when he takes over the reins of the monetary authority, following his expected Senate confirmation in February, under the government of Jair Bolsonaro. Inflation is running below target and the benchmark interest rate stands at an all-time low of 6.5 per cent. Following a series of faster-than-forecast deflation data, analysts have been cutting their outlook for the benchmark interest rate. Economists surveyed by the central bank now expect the so-called Selic rate to rise a mere half a percentage point this year and some even think it may remain unchanged throughout 2019. For 2020, it is expected to increase another percentage point, depending on how much traction Brazils economic recovery gets under Bolsonaros planned structural reforms. What Our Economists Say: The coast is clear for BCB to hold the target overnight rate at 6.5% for the time being, as inflation remains tamed and risks are tilted toward lower growth. The election of market-friendly President Bolsonaro also helped as it removed tail risks in economic policy prior to election, rate markets were pricing in fear of a currency meltdown and fiscal disarray. Although we do expect a gradual normalization to start at end-Q3, we do not rule out stable rates through end-2019. A few factors might weigh on the near-term prospects for rates in Brazil: developments in the global environment; progress (or lack thereof) on the reform front; and, as usual, eventual surprises on growth or inflation. Finally, a new BCB Governor takes office next February: the incoming governor is market-friendly, but it is too soon to tell whether he will have the same cautious approach to policy-making as his predecessor. Adriana Dupita Bank of RussiaCurrent key rate: 7.75%Forecast for end of 2019: 7.5%The Bank of Russia has a history of hawkishness, with both rate hikes in the last three meetings surprising most forecasters. Now, Russia is facing short-term inflation risks thanks to a VAT increase that kicked in on New Years Day and the ruble is taking a pounding along with the oil price. In a move that looks like shooting the messenger, President Vladimir Putin signed a law in December that bans currency-exchange offices from displaying rates to passersby. But perhaps the biggest uncertainty in Russia is the threat of further U.S. sanctions. With tensions flaring again over the arrest of an American in Moscow on spying charges, geopolitics is never far from the central banks thoughts. Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at her final 2018 press conference that a return to rate cuts will only be possible at the end of this year, while internal and external factors may encourage Russias cautious policy-makers to continue to tighten. What Our Economists Say: The Bank of Russia begins 2019 with its finger on the trigger. Policy is already tight enough, after last years hawkish turn. Yet inflation is on a steep upward trajectory, and the central bank wont tolerate surprises. Another rate hike could come in February or March if the acceleration proves unexpectedly swift or if fresh sanctions rattle the ruble. Easing could resume once temporary influences begin to fade, but thats unlikely to happen until the end of the year. Scott Johnson South African Reserve BankCurrent repo average rate: 6.75%Forecast for end of 2019: 7%The South African Reserve Banks November rate increase may give it room to support economic growth by holding the benchmark rate at 6.75 per cent until at least the third quarter before it tightens further. While the central banks quarterly projection model prices in four more rate increases of 25 basis points each by the end of 2020 and inflation was at an 18-month high in November, price-growth expectations cooled since the middle of December as a stronger rand and the drop in oil brought down energy costs. The composition of the Reserve Banks Monetary Policy Committee will change this year. What Our Economists Say: A stronger rand and lower oil prices will depress South Africas inflation in the first half of 2019. This will weaken the case for tightening monetary policy. A new configuration of the monetary policy committee following the resignation of deputy governor Franois Groepe and the expected addition of one or two members also injects uncertainty into the rates outlook. Mark Bohlund Banco de MexicoCurrent overnight rate: 8.25%Forecast for end of 2019: 8%Mexicos central bank is about to undergo a transformation as two new members tapped by leftist President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador are set to join the five-person board. While not enough to shift the majority away from its hawkish voting pattern Banxicos been raising rates for three years now the discussion within the central bank will likely become far more divided once the two members are ratified by the Senate as early as this month. Banxico will still have to contend with inflation thats hovered stubbornly above the 2 per cent to 4 per cent target range, along with new challenges posed by an administration thats planning to spend far more on social programs. Thats led some economists to see rates rising this year to a record high from its current 8.25 per cent. For now, the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey shows rates stabilizing until they slowly come down starting in the second half of the year. What Our Economists Say: The central bank will keep tight monetary conditions. Inflation and inflation expectations remain high and together with risks of second round effects from supply shocks and accumulated peso depreciation imply additional rate hikes cannot be ruled out. The two board members appointed by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador this year are unlikely to share the concerns about economic policies proposed by the new government that contributed to rate hikes late in 2018. The remaining three board members will keep the majority. Bloomberg economic expects Banxico to maintain interest rates at 8.25% until late in the second half when lower inflation and weaker activity could allow to start easing monetary conditions. Felipe Hernandez Bank IndonesiaCurrent 7-day reverse repo rate: 6%Forecast for end of 2019: 6.38%Bank Indonesia was one of the most aggressive central banks last year, raising rates six times for a total of 175 basis points as it sought to counter an emerging-market rout and protect a sliding currency. The rupiah has since recovered from a two-decade low, and while the central bank has made clear its prepared to take further action on rates in a bid to keep pace with the Fed, expectations are the tightening cycle may be coming to an end. With a presidential election set for April, cost of living is set to be a key focus for the government, putting pressure on the central bank to keep a lid on inflation. While inflation has been relatively subdued and well within the target band of 2.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent, the election could add to price pressures. The other key consideration is the current account deficit which leaves Indonesia vulnerable to outflows should sentiment dive again, and which has seen the government taking steps to curb imports and boost exports. What Our Economists Say: Bank Indonesias work to stabilize the rupiah may be complete, having lifted its policy rate by 175 bps in 2018. In December, it appeared more inclined to lean on direct intervention in the currency market, rather than tighten further. Whats more, the Fed subsequently signalled greater flexibility on policy in 2019. Even so, Bank Indonesia is likely to retain a tightening bias until government measures to slash the current account deficit bear fruit. The presidential election in April also looms, which prolongs investor uncertainty. In a Goldilocks scenario where the U.S. and China cement a trade deal, Bank Indonesia might be able to unwind some of its rate hikes before the end of the year. Tamara Henderson Central Bank of TurkeyCurrent 1-week repo rate: 24%Forecast for end of 2019: 19.5%Turkeys consumer inflation rate is finally dropping after the immediate impact of last years currency slump began to dissipate. But it still remains more than four times the five per cent official target, and the slowdown in prices isnt as fast as the collapse in private consumption, typically the biggest driver of growth in the Middle Easts largest economy. The combination of a high inflation rate and severe economic slowdown leaves the Turkish central bank in an awkward place. On the one hand, it must keep monetary policy tight to maintain the price trajectory it targets for this year. On the other, gross-domestic figures for the third quarter of 2018 show the economy could be in need of some kind of stimulus. The slump in activity spells trouble for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ahead of municipal elections in March, but there is little monetary policy action could achieve in such a short period of time. Any possible steps to ease access to liquidity will be critical to the fate of the lira and to Turkeys corporate sector, which relied heavily on FX financing and is now struggling to service foreign debt after the liras collapse. What Our Economists Say: The central bank has restored some credibility with an aggressive 625 basis-point hike in the repo rate in September. The lira has strengthened since then, after a tumultuous summer, and lower oil prices helped inflation to fall from its October peak. Assuming no further meltdown in the currency, we expect 550 basis points of rate cuts in 2019 as inflation continues to moderate. Ziad Daoud Central Bank of NigeriaCurrent central bank rate: 14%Forecast for end of 2019: 14%Nigerias central bank has kept its key rate at a record high 14 per cent since July 2016 and indicated it will maintain a tight monetary policy stance to tame above-target inflation. Price risks stemming from increased spending ahead of the February election and the possible deregulation of fuel prices could trigger an interest-rate increase in March. The central bank may see a change in leadership this year when Governor Godwin Emefieles first five-year term ends in June. CBN governors and deputies are appointed by the president and can serve a maximum of two five-year terms, but traditionally only serve one. A new governor is unlikely to alter the policy trajectory significantly, meaning a continuation of existing policies to tame price growth, defend the naira and build up reserves. What Our Economists Say: The nairas peg to the U.S. dollar is likely to return as the main priority of the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2019 as oil revenue and foreign investment dips. A hike in the policy rate is possible in 2019 but the CBN may opt for other ways to maintain the peg, such as open market operations. We do not expect Godwin Emefiele to continue after his current term as CBN governor end in June. Mark Bohlund Bank of KoreaCurrent base rate: 1.75%Forecast for end of 2019: 1.75%The Bank of Korea raised its key interest rate for the first time in a year in November. While a majority of economists forecast another 0.25 percentage point increase in 2019, this isnt assured and some have suggested that a cut is possible if economic conditions deteriorate. Governor Lee Ju-yeol and his policy board continue to weigh competing concerns that will become increasingly challenging this year. Accommodative policy is needed to spur sputtering growth and inflation that remains below the 2 per cent target. Yet a widening interest rate gap with the U.S. creates the risk of capital outflows and counts in favour of tighter policy. Record household debt is another thorny problem for the central bank, which must not push borrowers into trouble by raising rates too much while being sure not to encourage too many new loans with cheap money. What Our Economists Say: The Bank of Korea is likely to keep its policy rate on hold at 1.75% through 2019, in our view. The central bank hiked by 25 basis points in November 2018 in a bid to reduce financial imbalances and rebuild policy space. The year ahead looks more challenging, with heightened external risks and muted inflation likely to keep the BOK on an extended pause. Two things though, could shift the calculus: any changes in the pace of Fed tightening, and any shifts in U.S.-China trade relations. Justin Jimenez Reserve Bank of AustraliaCurrent cash rate target: 1.5%Forecast for end of 2019: 1.5%The RBA is likely to remain on the sidelines for the first half of this year, but its patience will be tested. After a two-month hiatus, its next rate decision in February will be closely watched for comments on whats fast becoming a key worry: plunging property prices. A 11.1 per cent slide in the price of Sydney housing from the peak helped turn around market bets on the next policy move, with traders now seeing more chance of a cut than a hike this year. Australian households are among the worlds most indebted, and the RBAs worried that a prolonged housing slump will drag on consumption. Still, this is somewhat uncharted territory: house prices are falling while the economy is still growing just above its speed limit and the jobless rate is near the lowest in almost seven years. That helps explain why the RBA as recently as December reiterated that the next rate move is still likely to be up. What Our Economists Say: Risks to Australias economy and monetary policy in the last two months became two-way, with the drop in house prices becoming much more pronounced. Even so, more recent positive external developments Chinas further stimulus, the Feds greater flexibility and signs of progress on trade between the U.S. and China should help stabilize sentiment without the RBA having to act. Lending rules were also eased from Jan. 1. By year-end, we expect remaining hurdles for the start of gradual policy normalization to be cleared. In particular, the investment climate should be less challenging and wage growth is likely to have ticked higher. A rate hike as soon as December cannot be ruled out. Tamara Henderson Saudi Arabian Monetary AuthorityCurrent repo rate: 3%Forecast for end of 2019: 3.5%Saudi Arabias currency peg to the dollar and the fact that its main export, crude oil, is priced in dollars, means that its interest rate tends to closely track the Fed. Though the kingdoms economic recovery remains fragile, the central bank has given little indication it would change course this year. What Our Economists Say: The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority doesnt have major decisions to make. The currency peg to the dollar means that interest rates closely follow the Feds. They raised the repo rate by 100 basis points in 2018. Another 75 basis points of rate hikes are expected in 2019. Ziad Daoud Central Bank of ArgentinaCurrent target: to freeze the expansion of monetary aggregatesArgentinas central bank no longer sets inflation goals and now lets daily bond auctions determine its benchmark rate. Under the terms of a revised agreement with the International Monetary Fund, policy-makers led by Guido Sandleris are targeting monetary aggregates in a bid to freeze the expansion of pesos in the economy. The new strategy amounted to a sharp monetary tightening, as Argentinas money supply was expanding at about 2 per cent a month before the policy change. The benchmark interest rate was at a world-high 60 per cent. Since then, inflation expectations have somewhat moderated but still at very high levels: consumer prices are expected to increase 28.7 per cent over the next 12 months. What Our Economists Say: BCRA no longer sets the interest rate, but it has a critical role in creating conditions for markets to lower the near-60% Leliq. So far, the institution delivered on its ambitious plan to keep monetary base stable, and we expect it to remain committed to this policy. ARSs non-intervention zone is set to increase at a slower pace, which can help bring down inflation expectations (still under pressure). Should the ARS move below the non-intervention zone, BCRA is allowed to purchase dollars, and such nonsterilized intervention can lead to lower market-based rates. This benign cycle is, however, rather dependent on both international market conditions (out of BCRAs control) and the prospects of fiscal policy (influenced by the forthcoming Presidential election in October). Hence, even if BCRA plays by the book, volatility may be high in both currency and interest rates. Adriana Dupita Swiss National BankCurrent Libor target rate: -0.75%Forecast for end of 2019: -0.50%Since shocking markets in January 2015 by abolishing its minimum exchange rate, the Swiss National Bank has kept policy on hold, sticking with the lowest rates of any major central bank and a pledge to intervene in currency markets if necessary. Although the economy grew at an unusually strong pace in 2018, the franc also rallied against the euro on the back of investor unease about Italy and other political turmoil. With the ECB pledging to keep borrowing costs in the neighbouring euro zone at rock bottom through next summer, the SNB is very likely to stick with current policy for the foreseeable future to avoid exacerbating pressure on the franc. President Thomas Jordan and his colleagues have also grown more dovish on the inflation outlook, giving them ample space to keep policy accommodative. Sveriges RiksbankCurrent repo rate: -0.25%Forecast for end of 2019: 0.13%Swedens central bank ended last year by raising its benchmark rate for the first time in seven years. With consumer price growth and inflation expectations solidly back at the 2 per cent target, the majority of the governing board members felt comfortable enough to take another step in removing the record stimulus unleashed over the past four years. The central bank now anticipates that it will raise rates again in the second half of this year and then two times next year. But investors such as Pimco and the major Swedish banks are doubtful it will be able to pull off an exit as economic headwinds build. Governor Stefan Ingves and his colleagues will also over the coming meetings need to decide on whether to keep reinvesting its massive balance sheet after a June end date. Norges BankCurrent deposit rate: 0.75%Forecast for end of 2019: 1.25%Norways central bank is preparing the next step in a gradual shift away from extreme monetary stimulus, predicting a second interest rate increase again in March. After suffering through the worst oil crisis in a generation, the economy of western Europes largest exporter of crude is now growing above trend. Petroleum investments are expected to boost the economy this year with unemployment holding steady at 4 per cent. But the recent swoon in oil prices and the global slowdown could keep policy-makers in Oslo from not straying too far ahead of their colleagues in Frankfurt and Stockholm. Reserve Bank of New ZealandCurrent cash rate: 1.75%Forecast for end of 2019: 1.75%Governor Adrian Orr remains firmly in wait-and-see mode and there is little prospect of a change in stance this quarter. The economy has cooled and inflation remains benign, supporting Orrs call for rates to be held at a record low well into 2020. While data are sufficiently healthy to make the chances of a rate cut look remote, further policy easing cannot be entirely ruled out. Orr has shown himself to be growth-focused a dove in comparison to his hawkish predecessor. As well as those on the international horizon, downside risks include the RBNZs plan to force banks to hold bigger capital buffers, which could slow lending. What Our Economists Say: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is signalling steady interest rates through this year and into 2020. The RBNZs neutral policy bias reflects both upside and downside risks to growth and inflation. Even so, keeping the policy setting at an expansionary level for a considerable period signals greater concern about growth than inflation, in our view. Inflation in 3Q moved toward the centre of the 1-3% target, but growth through the third quarter was well below the Reserve Banks estimate of potential. Private investment has stalled in line with the souring in business confidence, though household spending has picked up. We expect the RBNZ to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 1.75% in 2019. Tamara Henderson National Bank of PolandCurrent cash rate: 1.5%Forecast for end of 2019: 1.5%Polish interest rates, on hold at a record-low of 1.5 per cent since May 2015, probably wont be changed until the end of the term of this Monetary Policy Council in 2022. Central bank Governor Adam Glapinski revealed that scenario in early January, extending the longest ever pause in rates past the earlier projected horizon for the end of the decade. Despite annual gross domestic product growth of above 5 per cent and rapidly rising wages, inflation has remain subdued amid low oil prices and a freeze in domestic electricity tariffs. While Glapinski has acknowledged that inflation may be slower and growth stronger, he sees a stronger probability of rates staying unchanged. Czech National Bank Current cash rate: 1.75%Forecast for end of 2019: 2.25%The Czech central bank, one of the global front-runners in lifting borrowing costs, interrupted its tightening push in December to gauge the impact of its record series of interest-rate increases. The five hikes last year were a reaction to weak currency, which has failed to cool the economy in which a robust wage growth has been fuelling consumer demand and inflation pressures. Policy-makers are again expecting the koruna to gain this year and tighten conditions for businesses, and they said that absence of currency appreciation could allow more hikes. The central bank says the benchmark should continue rising to bring real interest rates from negative to neutral levels, but it said decisions on further hikes will be more difficult than in 2018. Thats partly because the export-reliant nation could be exposed to global risks such as trade protectionism and Brexit, and an overdone monetary tightening may constrain the economy too much. Methodology: Based on median estimate in monthly or quarterly survey, where available, or most recent collected forecasts. All interest rate and forecast data is as of Jan. 14. | https://www.thestar.com/business/2019/01/15/when-it-comes-to-rates-what-are-central-banks-going-to-do-next.html |
Can drinking collagen slow down aging and boost other functions? | Thats practically the bionic dream a fantasy that, according to some wellness gurus, can be achieved simply by adding a scoop of ingestible collagen to your morning smoothie or tea. John Kariuki, director of the Star Brilliant Donkey Export Abattoir in Naivasha, Kenya, holds up a donkey hide. Strong demand in China for ejiao, a traditional medicine made from gelatin extracted from boiled donkey hides, has led to a rise in donkey thefts in many countries. ( RACHEL NUWER / The New York Times file photo ) Collagen, an ingredient extracted from animal skins commonly found in anti-aging skin creams, has graduated from topical use to internal a dietary supplement on the verge of being the next big wellness fad, with dozens of collagen syrups, drinks, powders and even gummies being marketed as a cure for everything from brittle nails to brain health. Some. But not much. That lack, though, isnt stopping people from drinking it in the hopes that this might be the fountain of youth weve all dreamed of. Hopes are so high, in fact, that its already threatening the worlds donkey population one of the preferred sources of collagen in Asia. The theory is simple. Collagen is an important, abundant and naturally-occurring structural protein found in the human body that plays an important role in a range of things including, skin, nail and hair health and, also, more important functions, such as healing. The older we get, the less we produce. Some people think we can fix that by ingesting animal collagen, which will, somehow, inspire our bodies to kick our collagen production back into high gear. Its still just a theory. Article Continued Below The real genesis of the interest in collagen came from a study that was published a couple of years ago and looked at eight healthy men and the effect it had on building new connective tissue, says Jennifer Sygo, a registered dietitian and sports nutritionist at the Cleveland Clinic Canada. To Sygo, team dietitian for the Toronto Maple Leafs, this peer-reviewed study (conducted by researchers working at the University of California, Davis) is exciting, since theres traditionally very little that can be done from a nutritional standpoint to speed up healing tendons and ligaments. If the study is replicated and backed up with more research, though, it could open up a whole new course of treatment for injuries and chronic joint pain. But, Sygo warns, its still early days and one, very small study. New studies are ongoing and, while they might confirm the results, they havent been published yet. This, however, isnt slowing down the booming collagen industry. In China, for example, a collagen derived from donkey skin called ejiao (ass-hide gelatin) that used to be prescribed for specific illnesses, such as anemia, has gained a reputation as a magic elixir. Its become so popular that, since 1990, about half of Chinas 11 million donkeys have been killed for their skins. As collagen supplement producers have cast about for foreign sources, the trade has sparked a potentially extinction-level crisis in India, Pakistan and many countries in Africa, where farmers still report a problem with donkey theft, despite a ban on the trade by 14 African countries. Nobody in Canada (that we know of) is using donkey hides but this illustrates the ethical and health concerns that are bound to come up when it comes to sourcing ground up animal parts. Even leaving PETA, endangered fish stocks and global warming from meat production out of the discussion, contaminants and heavy metals, such as arsenic and mercury remain a concern. As such, many collagen producers, such as Great Lakes Gelatin and Genuine Health Essentials, are offering sustainably- and naturally-sourced options. With Genuine Healths Clean Collagen, for instance, both surf and turf varietals are sustainably sourced one made from byproducts (scales and skins) of wild-caught fish in the North Atlantic; the other from bovine skins of grass-fed and pasture-raised USDA cows. They start at $26.99 for 12, 10 oz. satchels and the suggested dosage is one 10 oz. serving a day. Article Continued Below For my little collagen self-experiment, I chose the turf option, because Im still worried about heavy metals in fish. The powdered bovine skins come in flavoured or unflavoured, but mine happened to be pineapple/berry, which sounds great, but didnt really taste like either and smacked of artificial flavour. It didnt fully dissolve in water (after the fact, Genuine Health spokesperson, Joy McCarthy told me shaking it would have worked better), so I just closed my eyes and tried to get it down globules and all. The second time I tried mixing it with yogurt, but I could still taste that weird fruit flavour. I asked Sygo about some of the far-reaching claims being made about collagen and read a list to her that included cognitive function, physical performance, heart health, bone density, hair and nail support and skin hydration. This was her response: You know, were getting ahead of ourselves here and Im going to urge people to understand that theres so much in the research that we dont yet know the answers to. When you have reputable researchers at a university publishing in the area, it totally amplifies the buzz and gives a level of gravitas to the whole situation. Yes, the genie is a bit out of the bottle right now, but we need a little bit more time to know how well this works. Im happy to follow her guidance and put my collagen and bionic dreams on a back shelf on the pantry while I wait for the research to come in. I bet Im one of the few though judging from the donkey crisis, waiting for results and evidence-based medicine just isnt a thing humans do very well. At least not in the face of brittle nails, aging skin and the promise of a fountain of youth. Christine Sismondo is a Toronto-based freelance writer. | https://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2019/01/15/can-drinking-collagen-slow-down-aging-and-boost-other-functions.html |
Are autonomous vehicles coming to CVG? | CLOSE Transit X CEO Mike Stanley thinks his pods could completely replace cars in a city. The Enquirer/Hannah Sparling (Photo: Amazon) Amazon Prime Air's new hub at the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport is expected to open sometime in 2021. Ahead of that opening, a collaborative effort by CVG, OKI Regional Council of Governments, and the University of Cincinnati Office of Research is looking at ways to improve transportation in the region to accommodate an influx of people. CVG was already the fastest growing cargo airport in the nation when Amazon announced in 2017 plans to build its worldwide cargo hub at the airport. Amazons expansion at CVG represents a $1.4 billion investment and will add more than 2,700 jobs to airports existing base of 10,000. That's a lot of people needing to get to and from CVG on a daily basis. To help keep traffic flowing, planners are looking to technology. Specifically, autonomous vehicles could help the airport move employees and passengers to and from parking lots to terminals. This project is coming and theres no time to waste in addressing the transportation needs for the region, OKI CEO Mark Policinski said. Its a growing area already, Policinski said. We came to the conclusion this growth is going to continue into the future. So what we have is an area of our region that will experience tremendous job growth. We have to figure out how to get people to and from their jobs. Technology could play vital role in addressing the future transportation needs, he said. The University of Cincinnati is already immersed in research involving driverless vehicles, according to Dr. Jiaqi Ma, an assistant professor of civil engineering at UCs College of Engineering and Applied Science. The partnership offers UC an opportunity to help CVG and OKI identify appropriate technology to address transportation needs, he said. It also provides the university access to a place to test autonomous vehicle technology. Theyre interested, for example, in transporting passengers from their parking lots to terminals using autonomous shuttles, Ma said. Theyre also interested in using autonomous vehicles for transporting luggage from terminals to airplanes. These are two cases weve identified for CVG. Beyond looking at autonomous vehicle applications for CVG, UC research is working on ways technology can improve the overall travel experience for the region. Ma's focus is on self-driving vehicles being part of a bigger network, connected both to other nearby vehicles and the intersections of roads around them. In a prepared statement, CVG representatives acknowledged that they have expressed interest in supporting autonomous vehicle concepts at CVG. "Our interest is leveraging CVG as a beta-site for advancing technologies that could create viable, complimentary advanced transportation solutions for the region and beyond, the statement said. Policinski emphasized that CVG is making decisions about ways to address its transportation needs for the future. OKI can invest in roads around the airport but is prohibited by law from investing in the airport proper, he said. Whatever the plans, progress will need to be swift. Its not as if we can look at it and study. We have to find solutions, Policinski said. "This isnt a situation where there are decades to identify and address needs. This is work that needs to happen over the next couple of years." Read or Share this story: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2019/01/15/cvg-use-self-driving-vehicles-shuttle-people-luggage/2573079002/ | https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2019/01/15/cvg-use-self-driving-vehicles-shuttle-people-luggage/2573079002/ |
Can Hyundai's String Of Awards Lead To Much-Needed Sales? | Hyundai Motor swept the North American Utility of the Year and Car of the Year awards at the Detroit auto show this week, with the new B-segment Kona crossover and the Genesis G70, the newest offering from Hyundais luxury badge. The twin awards the biggest in American motoring are the latest in an impressive string of recent victories for the South Korean brand. In December, Motor Trend named the G70 as its car of the year. In June, the top three positions in J.D. Powers annual Initial Quality Study were occupied by Genesis, Hyundais corporate sister Kia, and Hyundai. Theres little doubt that Hyundais reputation for making high-quality volume sedans is expanding into SUV and luxury territory. By the admission of Executive Vice Chairman Euisun Chung, son of the current chairman and grandson of Hyundais founder, Hyundai missed the SUV boom. Hyundai wowed the U.S. market with its electrifying 2010 Sonata sedan and 2011 Elantra, which won the 2012 North American Car of the Year Award, just as the market was demanding mid-sized four-door cars. But in the following years, as the market turned from sedans to crossovers, Hyundai concentrated on improving the Sonata and Elantra. And they were superior vehicles to their award-winning predecessors. But by then the U.S. market had moved on. Prior to last years rollout of the little Kona and this years introduction of the full-sized Palisade, Hyundai had only two SUVs in its lineup Tucson and Santa Fe. At the same time as it was losing U.S. market share, Hyundai got caught in a political dispute between South Korea and Hyundais largest market, China, when Beijing objected to a piece of U.S. military hardware installed in South Korea, which China saw as a threat. China began boycotting all Korean products, crushing Hyundais sales there, which already were getting pinched by rising Chinese brands from below and European luxury brands from above. Even domestically in South Korea, imports began to chew into Hyundais dominant market share. As such, Hyundais global sales have dropped in recent years and profits have plunged . Hyundais Genesis luxury badge has been badly handled since its spinoff in 2015. Launched with only two sedans, no SUVs and no stand-alone dealerships, Genesis got embroiled in a nasty fight with U.S. Hyundai dealers over which ones would be allowed to sell Genesis. Probably not on their own. I asked a prominent Hyundai dealer once how much these awards mattered to his sales. Theyre additive, he said, not essential. Hyundais greatest selling points are still vehicle price, quality, warranty and features. Car of the year awards are a nice cherry on top, he said. Hed put the award signage up in his dealership, he said, and let current owners know their car had won a big award, but prizes dont close deals. It also wont help Hyundai that neither the Kona nor the G70 are high-volume cars. Kona sits in the fast-growing but still small subcompact SUV segment. Though Kona enjoyed a very good first year, recording 47,090 sales in 2018, that number was still about one-third of Tucson's total sales. Genesis sales are going the other way. Sales of the big G80 and G90 in 2018 were about half of their 2017 totals. The Genesis G70 was built as a BMW 3-series killer and should fare better -- that's the biggest-selling segment of luxury sedans. Even if big awards don't significantly move the sales needle, I can tell you from firsthand experience, from my years as head of global PR for Hyundai in Seoul, that they matter to the people who actually make the cars. When Hyundai won its first North American COTY, as theyre called in the industry, for its first-generation Genesis in 2009, it was a watershed moment for company pride. Finally Hyundai an auto industry joke only a generation earlier had climbed to the top of the worlds most important auto market. Hyundai, showing a little swag, cut a funny Super Bowl ad to celebrate the win. Hyundai felt like it had another Detroit COTY winner in 2011 with the Sonata, which revolutionized design in the midsize-sedan segment, but lost to the Chevy Volt. As a political statement and symbol, Volt could not be defeated that year: It was an electric vehicle produced by a Detroit legacy automaker just out of bankruptcy in its historic Hamtramck factory a phoenix story to beat all. As I told my disappointed Hyundai Motor America colleagues when Volt was announced as the winner, This was like being nominated for the Best Actor Oscar the year Dustin Hoffman was up for Rain Man. No one else was going to win. But Hyundai kept at it and the following year, its redesigned Elantra grabbed the Detroit COTY over the VW Passat and the Ford Focus. Having won a couple of big U.S. COTYs, Hyundai set its award sights on the worlds most demanding auto market: Europe. Hyundai, along with most Asian brands, had always received short-shrift in Europe, whether because of the might of the German marques, the protectionist policies of the French and other governments or general consumer bias. Not only had Hyundai never won a European COTY, it had never even made the short list, or finalists. In 2012, with the redesigned Hyundai i30 (badged in the U.S. as the Elantra GT), Hyundai felt it had a chance. We waged an all-out effort to get European COTY voters to drive the i30 multiple times. We sent them positive reviews of the car. In a last big push, we brought a number of voters to Hyundai headquarters in Seoul for a detailed, exclusive look at the i30s best features. We recruited the i30 engineers and product planners who had spent the past three years of their lives devoted to nothing besides making the i30 better. We got them to tell their stories to the voters. I will never forget the one female i30 engineer whose job it was to make sure the i30 backup camera, which popped out from under a flip-up Hyundai H logo on the cars trunk, worked properly. She told stories of spending dozens and dozens of hours squeezed into the i30s trunk watching the camera operate while it was opened and shut hundreds of time and shot with high-pressure water, frozen, heated to extreme temperatures, banged on and otherwise abused. Just to make sure the thing flipped open every single time an i30 buyer shifted into reverse. I dont know if it was her story that pushed us over the top, but the i30 got shortlisted for the European COTY. It didnt win that was the VW Golf, naturally but the achievement was remarkable and the pride of the i30 team was real. So when I see that Hyundai or any other upstart brand has won a big award, I tend not to think of the chief marketing officers who are already writing the award into their ad copy. I think of the engineers, product teams, designers and everyone else who sweated every last detail of the thousands of pieces and ideas that go into each car. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/frankahrens/2019/01/15/can-hyundais-string-of-awards-lead-to-much-needed-sales/ |
Are the White Sox Serious About Manny Machado? | It's been a while since the White Sox have been serious players for a high-profile free agent. Not really since signing Albert Belle to a five-year, $55 million deal in November 1996 have they been so prominently a part of the offseason rumor mill. So it is probably fair to question whether or not their run at Manny Machado this offseason is real. Keeping track of the whirling dervish of guesses and speculation at what Machado is going to do in free agency has been dizzying. Even the official MLB Twitter account joined in yesterday, claiming that the White Sox have gone 8 years, $250 million in their offer to Machado, in a since-deleted tweet. With a month to go before spring training begins, the rumblings from baseball's most well-connected insiders have been murky at best. Pick a day and it can seem simultaneously as if he is on the verge of signing and also weeks away, sifting through offers from multiple teams. But one constant has been the link between the White Sox and Machado. Reports on just how many years and how much money they have offered him have varied, but the lowest common denominator has consistently been that they are very much in on the shortstop. They've been rumored to be going seven or eight years and as low as under $200 million and as high as nearly $300 million. Even at the low end, a contract of this size would be a first for the White Sox organization. Their estimated luxury tax payroll commitments for 2019 are a bit over $109 million, according to Rosterresource.com, and the highest paid player this season is Jose Abreu. The first baseman is set to make $16 million in 2019, the last year of his contract, and he was the most recent big contract doled out by the White Sox since Belle over twenty years ago. Given the White Sox history with free agents, signing Machado would be a break from what has been their approach for years. So, again, it's reasonable to wonder how serious they are this time. If the White Sox have offered seven years and something under $200 million for Machado, this would smack of a grandiose but ultimately insincere don't-look-behind-the-curtain attempt to placate fans who have watched favorites like Chris Sale and Jose Quintana shipped off for prospects in the past few years. An offer like that might be just enough for them to say they tried, but it wouldn't be a genuine effort. But taking into account what the White Sox have done otherwise this offseason, their effort to land Machado seems like more than just a meager hand-wave attempt at trying to sign him. Machado was at Guaranteed Rate Field to meet with team executives about a week before Christmas, and as the offseason has progressed, the White Sox have signed Yonder Alonso (Machado's brother-in-law), and Jon Jay (his close friend and winter workout buddy). Jay fits with their current outfield and is a well-liked clubhouse presence, but the Alonso signing makes little sense apart from Machado. With first baseman Jose Abreu in Chicago for at least one more year, Alonso feels superfluous. Unless he's a piece of the Machado puzzle. A move like this isn't without recent precedent. The White Sox's northside counterparts signed David Ross just before adding his buddy Jon Lester in December 2014, and the Cubs did sort of the same thing with catcher Chris Gimenez and Yu Darvish last winter. Joining the White Sox would mean that playoff contention is still realistically at least a year away, but in the meantime, Machado could come to a franchise that has some friendly faces on the roster. It's obvious that Machado would fit in nicely with the White Sox current lineup, where Tim Anderson and Yolmer Sanchez currently occupy the left side of the infield. Anderson is a respectable shortstop and Sanchez a valuable clubhouse leader, but neither would stand in the way of Machado and his 30.2 career fWAR. Adding Machado would be a major step toward making the White Sox legitimate contenders in the American League Central, and maybe even more. Chicago arguably has room to sign both Machado and Bryce Harper to handsome contracts, but it's been the former who has had the strongest link to the team so far. They are likely competing most closely with the Philadelphia Phillies -- who are also strongly linked to Harper -- and at different times the Yankees, Dodgers, and of course the perennial Mystery Team. The White Sox have sold off nearly all of the best parts of the roster over the past few years in exchange for the best prospects of more than a few opposing teams, but that seems to be at an end. If White Sox general manager Rick Hahn does land Machado, this would represent a break from recent tradition and a step toward the future for the franchise, whatever the final contract total turns out to be. Everything that the White Sox have done concretely so far would indicate that they're serious about landing Machado, and that should be refreshing news for fans on Chicago's south side. An inadequate attempt to bring one of the best free agents in years to the team would be an epic disappointment after seemingly otherwise putting all of the right pieces in place to bring Machado to Chicago. The rumor mill points in many directions, but the White Sox don't appear to be bluffing. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaredwyllys/2019/01/15/are-the-white-sox-serious-about-manny-machado/ |
Will the Government Shutdown Delay My Social Security Benefits? | Retirees who depend on their monthly Social Security checks to make ends meet can breathe a sigh of relief: Benefits won't be affected by the partial government shutdown. The Social Security Administration is already funded through September 2019, so services remain in effect and benefits checks will continue to arrive on time, according to the Social Security administration. Good thing, too, considering those Social Security checks are bigger in 2019 thanks to a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment. It's the largest COLA increase since 2012, when benefits rose 3.6%. In the two years prior to 2012, there were no COLA increases at all due to the impact of the Great Recession. Social Security branch offices are operating at normal hours during the government shutdown; typically 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., Monday through Friday. But even without the impact of the shutdown, those offices can get crowded. You can avoid the wait by applying for benefits online. Go to www.ssa.gov/myaccount to set up an online account. You'll need to enter some personal details, answer questions to confirm your identity, and choose a unique username and a complex password. It's a good idea to set up an online account with Social Security even if you're not yet eligible for benefits. Once you've done so, identity thieves will be unable to create a fraudulent account in your name and use it to apply for benefits. In addition, you can check your earnings history against your W-2 forms or tax returns to make sure there are no gaps in your earnings record that could reduce your Social Security benefits. You can also look up estimated retirement, disability and survivor benefits and, in certain cases, request a replacement Social Security card. You can apply for Social Security retirement benefits as early as age 62, but your monthly check will be bigger if you wait until your full retirement age. (Use our simple Social Security calculator to determine your full retirement age.) In 2019, the estimated average monthly Social Security benefit is now $1,461, up from $1,422 in 2018. The average monthly benefit for a couple who are both receiving benefits is $2,448, up from $2,381. And the maximum Social Security benefit for a worker retiring at full retirement age is $2,861, up from $2,788 in 2018. EDITOR'S PICKS Copyright 2019 The Kiplinger Washington Editors | https://news.yahoo.com/government-shutdown-delay-social-security-163213095.html |
Will the FOMC Minutes Point to Another Interest Rate Cut? | In its statement three weeks ago (September 18) announcing the first cut in interest rates in four years, the Federal Open Market Committee said the tightening of credit conditions has the potential torestrain economic growth. Today's release of the Committee's minutes will go a little bit more deeply into the arguments for the rate cut and test the likelihood of a similar action when the FOMC meets at the end of this month. The Committee was spooked by the report just 11 days before it last met that the economy shed 4,000 jobs in August. That employment report was revised last week to show a gain of 89,000 jobs in August, leading to suggestions the Committee might not have cut rates as sharply if it had the revised numbers. The Federal Reserve itself reported last Friday consumer credit outstanding increased a whopping $12 billion in August to $2.47 trillion the largest month-month increase since May; in the last six months, consumer credit has grown $65.6 billion compared with $47.1 billion in the previous six months. Translated, that means debt for each household grew by $582 in the last six months, compared with $418 in the previous six. Among the several possible explanations: there is no credit crunch another argument that the FOMC may have acted too quickly in lowering rates or the economy is in deeper trouble than we realize or acknowledge. The August increase in household debt (excluding mortgages) came in the same month in which personal consumption spending rose faster than disposable (after-tax) income; disposable income was up $37.2 billion, but spending was up $54.8 billion. On a per household basis, each household, on average, spent $16 more in August than it took in, while household debt increased $107. While the increased household spending is good news for an economy relying so heavily on consumption, the increased borrowing is not especially when that additional borrowing is not used to expand spending. The increased borrowing is itself a sign of stress. Since the Federal Reserve consumer credit report excludes real estate related debt, a dip or slow growth in credit card debt could mean homeowners have used less costly home equity or other mortgage debt to pay down higher interest credit card debt. With lenders at the urging of regulators tightening credit standards for mortgage debt in response to increasing mortgage foreclosures, it may be that escape route is closing. A couple of weeks ago Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in a closed door meeting with senior financial officials left at least one attendee with the impression he is more deeply concerned about the damage the housing meltdown could do to the rest of the economy than he has said publicly. The change in household debt supports that view. Today's minutes will open the door a bit wider into the FOMC thinking. | https://www.foxnews.com/story/will-the-fomc-minutes-point-to-another-interest-rate-cut |
What Really Is Low-Code/No-Code Development? | I was recently speaking with a good friend of mine who works in a large contact center selling and supporting multiple products and services, about New Year and New Year wishes. She said, with tongue somewhat in cheek, all I want for New Year is an application that makes my job easier and helps me to give my customers a great experience. Pushing her for more information led her to describe how her applications were disjointed and required her to enter different information to get details about the same customer, and she then had to distil that into something she could share with her customer to answer their query or close a sale. What about building your own application?, I asked. Ha she said, if only I could do that. Digital transformation has achieved buzz-word status. And enterprises around the world are waking up to the fact that they need to start making their digital transformation plans a reality so that they dont fail their customers expectations, fall behind and lose their competitive advantage. But they are stuck in a catch-22. Their IT teams are being stretched to the maximum as they spend 60% of their time just keeping current systems working. There arent enough skilled individuals to step up to the plate. Simply, businesses are lacking the resources to implement the necessary systems and processes to transform while keeping the lights on. Inevitably this results in frustrated employees. The slow pace of change harms their productivity and sometimes when new technology is finally rolled out, it doesnt quite fit the bill. New solutions, specified, built and implemented using traditional methods, arent always necessarily appropriate or efficient for that departments particular function. This has resulted in a growing need for bespoke software solutions that just arent available on the market. This is where low-code and no-code software steps in, enabling many staff in the company to become citizen developers, able to create robust applications in a safe, scalable environment that has all of the tooling and procedures to ensure appropriate security, testing and sign-off as part of a Digital Transformation program. To cite Gartner, citizen development is fundamental to digital transformation. To summarize, it is a visual integrated development environment (IDE). Within this environment, users (aka the citizen developer) drag-and-drop application components, connect them together and create a mobile or web app. Using this software, staff can design and build powerful applications that can scale for any organizationwithout writing any code. It really is as good as it sounds. Businesses are harnessing low-code development platforms to edge ahead of their peers. Take Vodafone, for example. Their IT team was under burgeoning pressure to deliver new solution capabilities, faster, as competition increased. Powerless to meet this demand, they proposed a platform that would empower business users to self-serve and create solutions with minimal IT support. By championing the citizen developer, the company was able to build a guided troubleshooting tool in just 4 months. The result was a staggering 75% improvement on time to market. Being able to innovate quickly is paramount. Updating software more frequently gives organizations a huge competitive advantage. By accelerating application development with agile delivery methodology that emphasizes short, frequent releases means that as the market evolves, technology wont be the barrier holding back the organization. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/johneverhard/2019/01/15/what-really-is-low-codeno-code-development/ |
Are Stores That Refuse to Say 'Merry Christmas' Suffering? | This is a partial transcript from "The O'Reilly Factor," December 5, 2005, that has been edited for clarity. Watch "The O'Reilly Factor" weeknights at 8 p.m. and 11 p.m. ET and listen to the "Radio Factor!" BILL O'REILLY, HOST: In the "Factor follow-up" segment tonight, as we told you in the "Talking Points Memo," 100,000 of you voted in our billoreilly.com poll. And 81 percent, 81 percent say they're not shopping in stores that banish the words "Merry Christmas". With us now, Neil Weinberg, a senior editor at Forbes magazine. NEIL WEINBERG, SENIOR EDITOR OF FORBES MAGAZINE: Well, you've got to bet this is a big topic of discussion. O'REILLY: Yes. WEINBERG: And you're a big topic of discussion, because what they're saying is, you know, we're in this no one situation. On the one hand, we got people are telling us we shouldn't have Christmas in the stores. Then we got this guy, Bill O'Reilly and all these other people, who are saying you got to put Christmas back in the stores. A couple of years ago, they were saying to us Christmas is too commercial! So they're sitting there in their boardrooms and they're trying to walk this very fine line between Bill O'Reilly and the anti-Bill O'Reillys. And that's where they're at. You know, I can't figure out 10 years ago, this wasn't even an issue. Every store said Merry Christmas, along with Happy Holidays and Happy Hanukah. It was all inclusive. Everybody said everything. Then all of a sudden, about three or four years ago, Merry Christmas began disappearing. WEINBERG: Well, I don't know that there's any unified force that said that. Maybe it's going to offend some people. Maybe we'll lose some sales." There's roughly 60 million people in the U.S. who say that they're not Christian. So they're saying, "Hey, why not take it away and see if we can get away with it," you know, to secularize the entire season. So they do that. And last year they did that and for example Federated Department Stores, Bloomingdale's, Macy's and they you know, there wasn't too much complaint. This year there's some push back from folks like you. And so they're saying, well, you know, "Maybe, we've got to back up here a little bit and put a little more Christmas back in Christmas." O'REILLY: Well, 85 percent of the country says it's Christian. Ninety-five percent, according to a FOX poll, celebrate Christmas. And you would think that these people would go, "Gee, you know, if we're going to take Christmas out of the federal holiday some people are going to be teed off," and more people are going to be teed off than the others who might get offended. WEINBERG: I don't know that they're teed off. For one thing if you look at the sales in November you'd find that it was really people were voting with their wallets. They were shopping at places that were cheap like Wal-Mart. They weren't shopping at places that were expensive like Saks Fifth Avenue. But the other thing is if you look, they're really trying to walk this fine line. If you look, for example, on the web sites of people like Target who wouldn't tell you what their policy was, you look on the web page and it's red. It looks Christmas. Of course, they're red anyway. But it looks Christmas all over. You don't see "Christmas," the word "Christmas" anywhere. O'REILLY: Target has been the target of a boycott by some Christian groups... WEINBERG: Right. O'REILLY: ... because of their treatment of The Salvation Army and because they won't mention Christmas. I'm not getting Target. I'm not getting a lot of them. Wal-Mart I'm not getting, because they market to the folks. WEINBERG: Right. O'REILLY: You know, people were the heavy emotion tied into the holiday of Christmas. WEINBERG: Well, I can tell you one thing. I went to Target's web site today and typed in "Christmas" on Target's web site. I got 39,443 hits. I don't know what all that stuff is, but that's a lot of stuff. There was about 7,000 at Wal-Mart. So while they might not be wanting to put "Merry Christmas" on the front of Target... O'REILLY: Here's what people want. They want to walk into the store and see "Merry Christmas." That's the litmus test. They don't want a clerk saying it to them; it doesn't matter. They want to see "Merry Christmas," and then you can see "Happy Holidays" or "Happy Hanukkah" or "Happy Kwanzaa." The stores are so large, you would assume that they would have room for all of that. See, that is my solution. WEINBERG: It seems to make sense for me. s you now, you walk around New York and go into the lobbies of big buildings, and you have a Christmas tree, and you have... O'REILLY: Well, there are some buildings that you won't see "Merry Christmas" and others that you will. For example, over here, Rockefeller Center. Now, there was pressure put upon NBC to call it a holiday tree. NBC would not relent to that pressure. WEINBERG: Touche. O'REILLY: NBC said, "No it's a Christmas tree here at Rockefeller Center and that's what we're going to call it." WEINBERG: Right, right. O'REILLY: But there was pressure put upon NBC not to call it a Christmas tree. WEINBERG: I think it's insane. I think, you know, this country, just because we have a separation of church and state, doesn't mean you have no church. You know, NBC is a private company. O'REILLY: It's not about church; it's about a federal holiday. WEINBERG: Christmas. O'REILLY: OK. WEINBERG: Right. A Christmas tree. WEINBERG: Exactly. O'REILLY: That's the traditional symbol. Because I do I think they're going to have to, all of them. WEINBERG: I think that they're going to move that way but they're going to do it very cautiously because they're going to see how far they can stay toward the middle. What they're trying to do. This is the season for whatever it means for you and me, it means money for them. O'REILLY: All right and money talks, boy, I'll tell you! If you don't like what they're doing don't buy. Mr. Weinberg, thanks very much. Content and Programming Copyright 2005 Fox News Network, L.L.C. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Transcription Copyright 2005 eMediaMillWorks, Inc. (f/k/a Federal Document Clearing House, Inc.), which takes sole responsibility for the accuracy of the transcription. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No license is granted to the user of this material except for the user's personal or internal use and, in such case, only one copy may be printed, nor shall user use any material for commercial purposes or in any fashion that may infringe upon Fox News Network, L.L.C. 's and eMediaMillWorks, Inc.'s copyrights or other proprietary rights or interests in the material. This is not a legal transcript for purposes of litigation. | https://www.foxnews.com/story/are-stores-that-refuse-to-say-merry-christmas-suffering |
What could happen next to Rep. Steve King? | As Iowa Republican Rep. Steve King faces fierce backlash for questioning why white supremacy is considered offensive, for now hes showing no signs of stepping down amid mounting pressure to resign. In an interview with the New York Times published Thursday, King asked, White nationalist, white supremacist, Western civilization -- how did that language become offensive? Those comments set off a series of rebukes from both sides of the aisle and ultimately resulted in the eight-term congressman being stripped of his committee assignments by GOP leadership Monday. Susan Walsh/AP Steves remarks are beneath the dignity of the Party of Lincoln and the United States of America, House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy said in a statement, adding, His comments call into question whether he will treat all Americans equally, without regard for race and ethnicity. Meanwhile, Democrats have scheduled a House vote on a resolution Tuesday that disapproves of Kings statements. The resolution was introduced by House Democratic Whip Jim Clyburn, the highest-ranking African-American member of Congress, and two other Democrats, Rep. Bobby Rush and Rep. Tim Ryan, have also introduced censure resolutions, which serve as more forceful reprimands. The harshest form of punishment King could face is expulsion from the House, but the bar for that is high. There have only been five members expelled from the House in history. All of those members were charged with crimes -- the first three were expelled for joining the Confederacy. The most recent example of a member facing expulsion was in 2002 when Ohio Democrat-turned-Independent Rep. James Traficant was convicted of conspiracy to commit bribery, filing false tax returns, and obstruction of justice, among other crimes. Prior to that, Pennsylvania Democrat Rep. Michael Myers was ousted in 1980 after he was convicted of bribery. Tom Williams/Getty Images In Kings case, the terms of how the rules of expulsion would apply are murky. The Constitution requires a two-thirds majority vote to expel a member, but according to the Congressional Research Service, there are no specific grounds for an expulsion expressed in the Constitution, expulsion actions in both the House and the Senate have generally concerned cases of perceived disloyalty to the United States, or the conviction of a criminal statutory offense which involved abuse of ones official position. Meanwhile, Kings loss of committee assignments on the Judiciary and Agriculture Committees already renders him virtually powerless in terms of legislating, which would be problematic if he chooses to pursue a 2020 reelection bid. King is now one of three GOP House members with no committee assignments the others include Rep. Chris Collins and Rep. Duncan Hunter, both of whom are, respectively, under indictment for insider trading and misusing campaign funds. | https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/happen-rep-steve-king/story?id=60391518 |
How could tonight's vote impact the pound? | While many are sympathizing with Theresa May today, as she tries to push through a Brexit deal no one can agree on, they should perhaps spare a thought for currency traders. A smorgasbord of political options lay ahead depending on the margin of defeat this evening, with real implications for British financial services, exporters and the economy. The British pound has been in a holding pattern since the prime minister cancelled the vote last month, clinging to a $1.27 - $1.28 handle. In the event of a small defeat: Broadly considered to be under 100 votes by currency analysts, they suggest the pound could remain relatively flat. A defeat over 200 votes could see it fall much further, but not by the dizzying drops weve seen in the last two and a half years of Brexit turbulence. The pound dropped dramatically against the dollar straight after the referendum. It dipped below the $1.20 mark at the start of 2017, in anticipation of Mays Lancaster House speech, where she would announce Britains departure from the Single Market. It soared to $1.40 at the beginning of 2018, on positive noises that the EU would agree a close trading relationship with the UK. Short of crashing out of the EU at the end of March, or a shock victory for the Prime Minister today, were unlikely to see such stomach-churning moves in the next few days. You can no longer bet on a hard Brexit versus soft Brexit there are more options than that. | https://www.cnn.com/uk/live-news/brexit-theresa-may-deal-vote-gbr-intl/h_840281b6eb0d33c7dce0b629dc57de47?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_topstories+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Top+Stories%29 |
Does the age of consent push people to have sex too soon? | Half of young women reported having a first sexual experience before they were competent. The headline was enough to make you drop your marmalade: half of young women, and 43% of young men, said that they were not competent when they lost their virginity, in a survey of nearly 3,000 17- to 24-year-olds released this week. If the idea of sexual competence strikes you as inherently droll, Melissa Palmer, who conducted the study as a research fellow at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, helpfully subdivided it into four areas: consent, autonomy, contraceptive use and readiness. The study looked only at heterosexual encounters. This yielded the finding that nearly 20% of women felt less willing than their partner. Autonomy depended on the circumstances of the encounter, which ranged from I was drunk/under the influence of drugs and All my friends were doing it to It felt like a natural follow-on and I was in love. Palmer notes: Those questions basically established whether the influencer was external to the self peer pressure or alcohol or internal to the self, driven by your own feelings. Many in UK lose virginity before they are ready study Read more Contraceptive use is straightforward, and most young people almost 90% had used reliable contraception. The question about readiness was: Thinking about the first time you had sex, was it about the right time, do you wish you had waited longer or do you wish you hadnt waited so long? Just under 40% of women, and just over a quarter of men, did not feel theyd had sex for the first time at the right time. Very, very few wished it had been sooner, Palmer says. Only those respondents who answered positively in all four categories were deemed sexually competent. The report points out that there are implications beyond sexually transmitted infections and teenage pregnancies which have been in steady decline for the past 20 years for young peoples wellbeing. By definition it must be arbitrary, for as long as human beings are different, and mature at different rates, there can be no objective standard for sexual readiness. Self-evidently, though, an age of consent that would result in a pregnancy that would be physically harmful to the mother must be prioritising something other than the womans wellbeing. For that reason, I would put 14 as too young, although thats the age of consent (at least for heterosexuals) in many countries, from Germany and Macedonia to Madagascar and Malawi. Eighteen seems pretty stringent, though, and is far more common in Africa than in Europe. In South Korea, the age of consent is 20. In the US, sexual consent laws vary from state to state, tending to put consent at 16 (though sometimes 17 or 18). Many states also have Romeo and Juliet laws, which reduce or eliminate penalties when parties are close in age. Suffice to say, there is no direct correlation between what we would think of as the liberalism of a country and its age of consent, nor between the age of consent and the prevalence of sexual violence and/or gender discord, except at the extreme ends. Countries where the age of consent is at marriage tend to have extremely high levels of violence against women and girls, although in the Republic of Congo, the so-called rape capital of the world, the age of consent is 18. The age of consent is a legal issue, which is something that we cant talk about as public health researchers, Palmer says. The countries that have close-in-age type laws, so they dont focus on the age of young people but the age difference between partners, seem to take a more nuanced approach. Historically, the age of consent in Britain was 10 or 12 until the end of the 19th century, but the concept of consent was so different women having no sexual agency, marriage being taken as a blanket consent that its not comparable. The drive in the 1880s towards an age of consent of 16 was politically underpinned by the child labour elements of the factories acts of the previous two decades, which did more of the heavy lifting in terms of differentiating between adults and children than any moral, sexual crusade. And 16 is where the age of consent has stood since, only examined in recent memory as an equality issue when the age of gay consent was brought down from 18 to 16, in 2001. Palmer refers to some evidence not from her own study that having 16 as a legal age of consent can provide a useful safety net, in that people can say, Its not legal, as a way of resisting pressure to have sex. But it doesnt always work that way. Paula Hall is a sex therapist, and clinical director of the Laurel Centre. She says: Ive heard a lot of young people say, Rather than the age of consent, 16 is the deadline. In tandem with that pressure is the availability of porn. That becomes the easier option, Hall says. You can have sexual experience without risk. But there are things you could never learn from pornography. They dont have minor mishaps in porn. You rarely even see anyone put a condom on, and never the fiddly bit. Certainly in porn you do not see a guy losing his erection putting a condom on its all so seamless. Faced with these professional standards, some people are deferring actual sex for longer. A lot of the guys that Ive worked with who use porn compulsively are still virgins at 23, 24, 28, Hall says. The longer theyve gone without a real-time partner, they start making out theyve got more experience than they have, and they become absolutely terrified of it. They develop porn-induced erectile dysfunction. They worry about living up to the standards they see in pornography; they worry about losing their erection. The idea of people having sex when they are not autonomous, or not ready, suggests immediately the world of victims and culprits, but thats not what people describe. Theyre not necessarily a victim of someone else, but a victim of failure, a victim of their own insufficiency. Porn also interrupts the development of emotional readiness, if only because it never mentions it. Theres a biological readiness, knowing your body is ready, says Hall. But theres the psychological and the emotional bit as well. It has the potential to be the most wonderful, most amazing, most intimate encounter in the world. But it also has the potential to be really quite soul-destroying. And theres a very 21st-century answer, which is: dont let anyone do anything until they have hit full resilience, which is probably at about 35. Hall thinks the age of consent is a red herring. If we lowered the age of consent to 14 or upped it to 18 or 20, it wouldnt make the difference we think it would make. What matters is how we talk about sex to young people, and to each other. | https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/jan/15/does-the-age-of-consent-push-people-to-have-sex-too-soon |
How will Ohios 3 new medical marijuana dispensaries manage high demand? | COLUMBUS, Ohio At least two of Ohios first medical marijuana dispensaries are going to limit how much patients can buy to ensure everyone will have product in the first days of sales. Lines are expected to be long at the three dispensaries scheduled to open at 9 a.m. Wednesday -- one in Sandusky and two in Wintersville, near Steubenville. Patients have been waiting 33 months since the Ohio General Assembly passed the law legalizing medical marijuana. The law required the medical marijuana program to be fully operational Sept. 8. But that day passed without product on shelves, due to litigation, and issues the state had reviewing applications of medical marijuana businesses. First three Ohio medical marijuana dispensaries open at 9 a.m. Wednesday Our goal is to accommodate all the patients and make sure they can get their medicine -- thats what theyve been waiting for, said Jason Erkes, a spokesman for the CY+ Dispensary in Wintersville, owned by Cresco Labs, a cannabis company that operates in several states. CY+ is going to limit sales to 2 ounces per person in the first week, Erkes said. CY+ will have product from cultivators coming in all week to replenish supply that is sold. The dispensary will have close to 30 strains from three growers, he said. On Wednesday, CY+ employees will give patients a number so they dont have to stand in line, Erkes said. We have a hospitality tent set up so people can have hot chocolate and coffee and tables and chairs where they can fill out paperwork, he said. The first marijuana for sale will be in flower form since Ohio hasnt given certificates of operation to processors who use THC from marijuana plants in edibles, oils, lotions and other products. Ohio law prohibits people from smoking marijuana, but they can vape the plant form. Inside the Forest Sandusky, an Ohio medical marijuana dispensary in Sandusky. The Forest Sandusky is one of the first dispensaries expected to open. In Sandusky, patients at The Forest Sandusky will be limited to 1 ounce, said CEO Erik Vaughn. Our consultants and advisers that are an important part of our team have been through these launches in a dozen other states, Vaughn said. We are prepared for whats going to be a lot of interest in this historic moment. We expect to have adequate supply. The Forest Sandusky is expecting patients to purchase anywhere from about $60 to several hundreds of dollars in the first day. The company will charge about $50, plus tax, for a daily unit -- which is a 10th of an ounce of bud, Vaughn said. Military veterans will get a 20 percent discount, he said. Each store is only accepting payment in cash. Patients must have one of 21 qualifying conditions, a recommendation from a physician who is certified in the medical marijuana program and be registered with the state to buy medical marijuana. Also opening Wednesday is Ohio Valley Natural Relief, also in Wintersville. Its unknown whether there will be sale limits. A message left at the dispensary was not immediately returned. | https://www.cleveland.com/open/2019/01/how-will-ohios-3-new-medical-marijuana-dispensaries-manage-high-demand.html |
What Will It Take To Close The Funding Gap For Black Female Founders? | Viola Llewellyn, cofounder of African fintech platform Ovamba, spoke at the Black Women Raise event in mid-January about the challenge in getting investors to invest in a company led by a black woman. AFP/Getty Images If youve heard the statistics once, youve probably heard them a thousand times: of the nearly $100 billion in venture funding that goes to entrepreneurs in America, less than 3% goes to female founders and just 0.2% goes to black female founders. Theres a growing consensus that venture capitals race problem needs to be fixed. Whats less clear is precisely how to start closing the massive gulf. And at the inaugural Black Women Raise conference in Manhattan on Friday, a gathering of some 80 black female founders, a series of candid conversations laid bare the frustrations around the lack of an obvious path forward. In several raw moments of interchange, however, some answers started to emerge. Investors "could ask different questions, Charles Hudson, founder and managing partner of Precursor Ventures, said during a panel conversation with BBGs Susan Lyne, First Round Capitals Hayley Barna, and Female Founders Fund Sutian Dong. Do you think she can hire? I know whats behind that question. Its, Do you think she can get people to work for her because shes a black woman? And people ask these, what on the surface sound like innocent enough legitimate questions about investments, but theyre not innocent. Theyre loaded. And you learn a lot by the questions people ask. Despite the existence (and, arguably, preponderance) of these loaded questions, Hudson and the others cautioned the entrepreneurs in the room against becoming too disillusioned with the traditional venture capital community. Instead, they said, minority founders should prioritize investors who have a proven track record of investing in entrepreneurs who look like them. Vet investors upfront. Dont let them waste your time only to give you a half-ass answer after you spend an hour with them or even two weeks later, said Barna, who started her venture capital career after successfully cofounding e-commerce darling Birch Box. Just ask, is this in your sweet spot? From left to right, Susan Lyne of BBG Ventures, Charles Hudson of Precursor Ventures, Hayley Barna of First Round Capital, and Sutian Dong of Female Founder's Fund. Black Women Raise Dong noted that investors should be self-monitoring for where theyre over- and under-indexing, too. Weve said we dont like the ratio of founders in our portfolio. About half are non-white but only two are African American. So we asked our network who we should be talking to, she said. It can be hard, in an open and on-the-record forum, to ask the hard questions about investing in underrepresented founders much less to receive forthright answers to those questionsbut to the credit of the Black Women Raise attendees, no one shied away from speaking about the reality of her experience as a founder of color. Everyone talks about the friends and family round. I raised $63,000; I am the friends and family round, quipped Star Cunningham, founder and CEO of health management platform 4D Healthware. But underpinning her self-funding, Cunningham continued, was a lack of capital access. I have debt, because I had to get it, because no one wanted to give me any money. So what are you, as investors, going to do to look at our companies differently? Barnas reply: Dont be afraid to talk about your distance traveled. The same stories about people getting straight As from Ivy League schools isnt what gets us fired up; its instead hearing about how someone put themselves through med school from driving an ambulance, she said. You might think that your not supposed to talk about your life story, but I think its an important data point in helping [investors] make the right decision. This isnt to say that a little bit of information and clever storytelling will fix the funding gap for founders of color. Viola Llewellyn, cofounder of African fintech platform Ovamba, pointed out as much, saying that many of the investors shes come across dont seem interested in asking the questions that lead to the sorts of decisions Barna is referencing. Heres the problem: no one gets punished intellectually, emotionally, or financially for saying no to black women or to Africans. You will instead be congratulated if you dont make the foolish mistake of investing in something that doesnt fit into the preconceived ideas of what success is, Llewellyn said to Hudson, Lyne, Barna and Dong. At what point do we find a way to tell the story of the fool that said no? she continued, to applause from the room. Hudson waited a beat, and responded with empathy. Theres a million reasons [for investors] to say no, but until we have more success stories, I think theres always an easy out for people to say, No one has proven to me that investing in this way and this type of person works out. Its intellectually lazy and its wrong, he said. You have every right to be angry. Angry, yes, but also motivated. Among the clearest takeaways of the conversation is that one of the best ways to change the system is to start from within. In Silicon Valley and Arlan Hamilton parlance, fight pattern-matching with pattern-matching. More black women need to control capital, in whatever form that may be, Dong said. More black women need to be controlling capital to put that into companies run by black female founders. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiemcgrath/2019/01/15/what-will-it-take-to-close-the-funding-gap-for-black-female-founders/ |
What Is A Home Equity Line Of Credit And How Does It Work? | If you own a home, you've probably heard of a home equity line of credit before. However, these products can often be the something of a mystery, especially to those newer to homeownership. With that in mind, I've decided to put an end to the confusion once and for all. Below is your guide to home equity loans. It will cover what a home equity line of credit is, how it works, and how to qualify for one of your own. A home equity line of credit, commonly abbreviated as a HELOC, is essentially a second mortgage that functions similarly to a credit card. It's a line of credit that allows you to borrow against the equity in your home, as needed. Typically, this type of credit is used to cover big expenses such as medical debt, home renovations, or financing a child's education. Since HELOCs are secured by your home, meaning that the lender can foreclose on you if you decide not to pay back the loan, they often come with better interest rates than most traditional credit cards. However, their interest rates are adjustable, so you'll want to be sure to pay close attention to how much interest you could be paying over the life of the loan. HELOCs handle repayment a little differently than traditional credit cards. Instead of paying off as much of the balance as possible each month, this type of credit comes with two separate payment periods, each with their own set of rules. The first period is known as the "draw period." During this time, you're allowed to draw on the line of credit whenever you want. You also will likely only have to make payments on the interest accrued by the amount that you borrowed. After the draw period is over, you enter what's known as the "repayment period." Now, your monthly payment will likely go up substantially because you'll be responsible for repaying both the principal and the interest on whatever money you borrowed during the draw period. You'll continue making these payments over the remaining life of the loan. Qualifying for a HELOC For the most part, qualifying for a home equity line of credit is a lot like qualifying for a mortgage. Your lender will want to see proof of income through tax documents and pay stubs, your credit history, and any records of your debts and assets. However, there's one other piece that your lender will look at, as well: the amount of equity you have in your home. (Remember, equity is the percentage of your home that you own outright.) In this case, the amount of equity that you've built up by paying down your mortgage will play a key role in determining how much money you'll be allowed to borrow. Most lenders will only let you borrow against up to 85% of the equity you have in your home. Finding your maximum credit limit works like this: It's the amount your home is worth x the percentage of home equity you're allowed to borrow - how much you owe on your home For example: Let's say your home is worth $300,000 (according to a recent appraisal) and you're allowed to borrow up to 85% of your home equity, but you still have a $100,000 balance on your mortgage. $300,000 x 0.85 = 255,000 $255,000 - $100,000 = $155,000 In this case, you'd be approved for a $155,000 line of credit The difference between a home equity line of credit and a home equity loan Home equity lines of credit and home equity loans are similar in that they are both second mortgages on your home, but they function in different ways. Unlike the continuous line of credit that comes with a HELOC, home equity loans work in much the same way as your first mortgage. To start, the funds from a home equity loan are disbursed in one lump sum. Additionally, these loans often come with fixed interest rates and fixed monthly payments. If you're not sure which of the two is right for you, talk to your current loan officer and/or a financial advisor. They can help you take a more in-depth look at your options in order to decide which one will serve you the best. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/taramastroeni/2019/01/15/what-is-a-home-equity-line-of-credit-heloc-how-does-it-work/ |
What Were The Most Significant Machine Learning Advances Of 2018? | originally appeared on Quora: the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world. Answer by Xavier Amatriain, Former ML researcher, now leading Engineering teams, on Quora: If I had to summarize the main highlights of machine learning advances in 2018 in a few headlines, these are the ones that I would probably come up: AI hype and fear mongering cools down. More focus on concrete issues like fairness, interpretability, or causality. Deep learning is here to stay and is useful in practice for more than image classification (particularly for NLP). The battle on the AI frameworks front is heating up, and if you want to be someone you better publish a few frameworks of your own. Lets look at all of this in some more detail. If 2017 was probably the cusp of AI fear mongering and hype (as I mentioned in last years answer), 2018 seems to have been the year where we have started to all cool down a bit. While it is true that some figures have continued to push their message of AI fear, they have probably been too busy with other issues to make of this an important point of their agenda. At the same time, it seems like the press and others have come to peace with the idea that while self-driving cars and similar technologies are coming our way, they wont happen tomorrow. That being said, there are still voices defending the bad idea that we should regulate AI instead of focusing on regulating its outcomes. It is good to see that this year though, the focus seems to have shifted to more concrete issues that can be addressed. For example, there has been a lot of talk around fairness and there are not only several conferences on the topic (see FATML or ACM FAT) even some online courses like this one by Google. Along these lines, other issues that have been greatly discussed this year include interpretability, explanations, and causality. Starting with the latter, causality seems to have made it back to the spotlight mostly because of the publication of Judea Pearls The Book of Why. Not only did the author decided to write his first generally accessible book, but he also took to Twitter to popularize discussions around causality. In fact, even the popular press has written about this as being a challenge to existing AI approaches (see this article in The Atlantic, for example). Actually, even the best paper award at the ACM Recsys conference went to a paper that addressed the issue of how to include causality in embeddings (see Causal Embeddings for Recommendations). That being said, many other authors have argued that causality is somewhat of a theoretical distraction, and we should focus again on more concrete issues like interpretability or explanations. Speaking of explanations, one of the highlights in this area might be the publication of the paper and code for Anchor, a follow up to the well-known LIME model by the same authors. While there are still questions about the Deep Learning as the most general AI paradigm (count me in with those raising questions), while we continue to skim over the nth iteration of the discussion about this between Yann LeCun and Gary Marcus, it is clear that Deep Learning is not only here to stay, but it is still far from having reached a plateau in terms of what it can deliver. More concretely, during this year Deep Learning approaches have shown unprecedented success in fields different from Vision, ranging from Language to Healthcare. In fact, it is probably in the area of NLP, where we have seen the most interesting advances this year. If I had to choose the most impressive AI applications of the year, both of them would be NLP (and both come from Google). The first one is Googles super useful smart compose, and the second one is their Duplex dialog system. A lot of those advances have been accelerated by the idea of using language models, popularized this year by Fast.ais UMLFit (see also Understanding UMLFit). We have then seen other (and improved) approaches like Allens ELMO, Open AIs transformers, or, more recently Googles BERT, which beat many SOTA results out of the gate. These models have been described as the Imagenet moment for NLP since they show the practicality of transfer learning in the language domain by providing ready-to-use pre-trained and general models that can be also fine-tuned for specific tasks. Besides language models, there have been plenty of other interesting advances like Facebooks multilingual embeddings, just to name another one. It is interesting to note that we have also seen how quickly these and other approaches have been integrated into more general NLP frameworks such as AllenNLPs or Zalandos FLAIR. Speaking of frameworks, this year the war of the AI frameworks has heated up. Surprisingly, Pytorch seems to be catching up to TensorFlow just as Pytorch 1.0 was announced. While the situation around using Pytorch in production is still sub-optimal, it seems like Pytorch is catching up on that front faster than Tensor Flow is catching up on usability, documentation, and education. Interestingly it is likely that the choice of Pytorch as the framework on which to implement the Fast.ai library has played a big role. That being said, Google is aware of all of this and is pushing in the right direction with the inclusion of Keras as a first-class citizen in the framework or the addition of key developer-focused leaders like Paige Bailey. In the end, we all benefit from having access to all these great resources, so keep them coming! Interestingly, another area that has seen a lot of interesting developments in the framework space is reinforcement learning. While I dont think RL research advances have been as impressive as in previous years (only the recent Impala work by DeepMind comes to mind), it is surprising to see that in a single year we have seen all major AI players publish an RL Framework. Google published the Dopamine framework for research while Deepmind (also inside of Google) published the somewhat competing TRFL framework. Facebook could not stay behind and published Horizon while Microsoft published TextWorld, which is more specialized for training text-based agents. Hopefully, all of this open source goodness will help us see a lot of RL advances in 2019. Just to finish up on the frameworks front, I was happy to see that Google recently published TFRank on top of Tensor Flow. Ranking is an extremely important ML application that is probably getting less love than it deserves lately. It might seem like Deep learning has ultimately removed the need to be smart about your data, but that is far from true. There are still very interesting advances in the field that revolve about the idea of improving data. For example, while data augmentation has been around for some time and is key for many DL applications, this year Google published auto-augment, a deep reinforcement learning approach to automatically augment training data. An even more extreme idea is to train DL models with synthetic data. This has been tried in practice for some time and is seen as key to the future of AI by many. NVidia presented interesting novel ideas in their Training Deep Learning with Synthetic Data paper. In our Learning from the Experts, we also showed how to use expert systems to generate synthetic data that can then be used to train DL systems even after combining with real-world data. Finally, also interesting is the approach of reducing the need to have large quantities of hand-labelled data by using weak supervision. Snorkel is a very interesting project that aims at facilitating this approach by providing a generic framework. As far as more foundational breakthroughs in AI, it might be me and my focus, but I havent seen many. I dont entirely agree with Hinton when he says that this lack of innovation is due to the field having a few senior guys and a gazillion young guys although it is true that there is a trend in science where breakthrough research is done at a later age. In my opinion, the main reason for the current lack of breakthroughs is that there are still many interesting practical applications of existing approaches and variations so it is hard to risk in approaches that might not be practical right away. That is even more relevant when most of the research in the field is sponsored by large companies. In any case, an interesting paper that does challenge some assumptions is An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling. While being highly empirical and using known approaches, it opens the door to uncovering new ones since it proves that the one that is usually regarded as optimal is in fact not. Another highly exploratory paper is the recent NeurIPS best paper award winner Neural Ordinary Differential Equations, which challenges a few fundamental things in DL including the notion of layers itself. Interestingly, this last paper was motivated by a project where the authors were looking into healthcare data (more concretely Electronic Health Records). I cannot finish this summary without referring to the area of research in the intersection of AI and Healthcare since that is where my focus at Curai is at. Unfortunately, so much is going on in this space that I would need another post only for this. So, I will only point you to the papers that were published at the MLHC conference and the ML4H NeurIPS workshop. Our team at Curai managed to get papers accepted at both, so you will find our papers there among many other interesting ones that should give you an idea of what is going on in our world. This question originally appeared on Quora - the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world. You can follow Quora on Twitter, Facebook, and Google+. More questions: | https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2019/01/15/what-were-the-most-significant-machine-learning-advances-of-2018/ |
How Serious Is Borderline Personality Disorder? | originally appeared on Quora: the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world. Answer by Elinor Greenberg, PhD Psychologist, on Quora: Borderline Personality Disorder exists in that middle zone between the neurotic disorders that occur after the basic personality is formed (age 5 and over) and the psychotic disorders that are thought to have a biological basis. Psychotic Disorders I consider the psychotic disorders to be the most serious and debilitating. These include Schizophrenia, Schizo-Affective Disorder, and Bipolar Disorder. (This is not a complete list). During a psychotic episode, people lose touch with reality, may have hallucinations and/or delusions, and are likely to experience other people and events in a highly distorted way. They often cannot think clearly. The choices that people make during a psychotic episode can be destructive to their life goals and very disruptive to the lives of the people who care about them. We have medications that can help with the symptoms, but they are chronic illnesses for which at present we have no cure. Psychotherapy aimed at people with psychotic disorders generally focuses on getting clients to pay attention to their stress levels to head off a psychotic episode or minimize a recurrence, educating the patient and the family about the nature of the disorder, and evaluating the effects of the medication. Neurotic Disorders The term neurotic is not actually used very often these days. It had been used to describe conflicts that arose during what Freud called the Oedipal Period of child development at about age 5. The personality is basically already formed by then. The later problems are add-ons to the existing personality, so they are fairly easy to treat by most therapists, unless they involve severe trauma. Their main symptoms are anxiety, depression, and various types of inhibitions. Personality Disorders This is the middle zone of seriousness. Personality Disorders, such as Borderline PD, Narcissistic PD, and Schizoid PD start before the age of four when the personality is still being formed. They are believed to result from the interaction of children (each with his or her own inborn temperament) with their caregivers. Personality disorders can be viewed as an adaptive attempt by a particular child to maximize the amount of love, attention, and support that he or she can get from parents or other primary caregivers. Unlike the psychotic disorders, Personality Disorders are treatable by appropriate psychotherapybut they are more complex and harder to treat than the neuroses. The Role of Object Relations: From an object relations theoretical point of view, in order to be diagnosed with a personality disorder, you need to lack whole object relations and object constancy. This essentially means that the person cannot form and maintain a stable, integrated, and realistic view of him/herself and other people. Instead they only can switch back and forth between two equally unrealistic points of viewsomeone is either all-bad or all-good. During a fight, they will not be able to maintain their positive feelings for someone they love when they feel hurt, disappointed, frustrated, or angry with them. They can go from the extremes of love to hatred, and back again. Obviously this makes their sense of identity and their relationships with other people inherently unstable and easily disrupted. Borderline Personality Disorder BPD fits into the personality disorder category. How serious it is depends on the persons level of functioning. Basically, most people with BPD have similar issues. Here are a few of the most common issues associated with BPD. Love An obsessive preoccupation with love and reparenting (under the guise of an adult romantic relationship) as the solution to all their problems. An obsessive preoccupation with love and reparenting (under the guise of an adult romantic relationship) as the solution to all their problems. Fear of Abandonment A very strong, often unwarrented concern, that someone they value will abandon them. A very strong, often unwarrented concern, that someone they value will abandon them. Fear of Engulfment Many people with BPD were used as an emotional caretaker for one of their parents. As adults, they fear that instead of their partner meeting their emotional needs, they will become engulfed by their partners emotional needs. Many people with BPD were used as an emotional caretaker for one of their parents. As adults, they fear that instead of their partner meeting their emotional needs, they will become engulfed by their partners emotional needs. Feel More Childlike, than Adult Many clients with BPD report that even when they are competently dealing with adult responsibilities, they feel as if they are really still children or teens. They wish that some real adult will come along and take care of them. Many clients with BPD report that even when they are competently dealing with adult responsibilities, they feel as if they are really still children or teens. They wish that some real adult will come along and take care of them. Emotional DisregulationThey have stronger emotional reactions to most situations and often find their negative emotions very hard to tolerate. Level of Functioning: How serious their disorder is and how much it interferes with their daily life and the lives of their loved ones depends on their level of functioning. Generally, only the lowest functioning clients who qualify for a diagnosis of Borderline Personality Disorder ever get the diagnosis. Brief History of the Borderline Diagnosis The very low functioning group of people who tend to act impulsively, spray everyone else with their problems, become suicidal or briefly psychotic is the group that was first called Borderline. They were considered untreatable by psychoanalysis. In the earliest use of the term Borderline, it was not yet differentiated into the separate personality disorders that we recognize today. It was a catchall term to describe the varied group of people who were thought to inhabit the border between neurosis and psychosis. As time went on, different theorists separated this rather large group of people into separate subgroups depending on their pattern of symptoms and behaviors. There are different schools of thought about how many subgroups there are, whether these subgroups are variations of one thing or entirely different disorders, and so on. I subscribe to James F. Mastersons system of classification that divides most of the various permutations of personality disorders that are listed in the DSM5 into only three main groups, and includes some of the others as subsets of these main three: Borderline Narcissistic Schizoid As you can see, the meaning of the term Borderline has shifted from being the name for every disorder between psychotic and neurotic to only one specific type of this larger group. The Good News: Borderline Personality Disorder is very treatable. We now have a variety of therapies designed to help people with these issues. In addition, studies show that for most people, a great deal of the emotional turmoil decreases with age. Often, the moderate to high functioning Borderline clients who I see in private practice are handling their lives well enough that only their close friends, spouses, and relatives are likely to recognize that they have problems that qualify for this diagnosis. The General Rule: The higher the persons functioning level, the easier they are to help in psychotherapy. Borderline Personality Disorder becomes very serious at the lowest level of functioning. This is the group that finds it hard to form stable relationships, show up for work everyday, come to therapy regularly, and manage their adult responsibilities. They have trouble maintaining themselves between psychotherapy sessions and often feel quite desperate. Members of the low functioning group of people with BPD are more likely to threaten to commit suicide, cut themselves, develop severe eating disorders, and abuse alcohol and drugs. They have a much higher rate of suicide than higher functioning people with BPD. Some may decompensate and briefly become psychotic and may need to be hospitalized for a few days. However, unlike the clients with psychotic illnesses, they usually reconstitute and stop having psychotic symptoms fairly quickly. Punchline: Having Borderline Personality Disorder is serious enough to cause you a great deal of emotional pain and may interfere with your ability to stay motivated to achieve your goals. But, the higher functioning you are, the easier life will be for you. No matter what your level of functioning, there are now a variety of effective therapies available to help you heal. This question originally appeared on Quora - the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world. You can follow Quora on Twitter, Facebook, and Google+. More questions: | https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2019/01/15/how-serious-is-borderline-personality-disorder/ |
Can The Government Shutdown Really Drive GDP To Zero? | The quick answer to that question is long term it could, but the shutdown is unlikely to flat-line growth this quarter. The Trump administration is now in charge of the longest running government shutdown, beating the Newt Gingrich shutdown that took place in the early 1990s over a similar budget battle. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon was quoted by CNBC saying the shutdown will kill the economy. Dimon was not coming up with the number by himself. He wisely hedged his bet. Someone estimated that if it goes on for the whole quarter, it can reduce growth to zero, Dimon said in his fourth-quarter earnings call. We just have to deal with that. Its more of a political issue than anything else. The Trump administration seemed to have corrected their original forecast today regarding the impact the shutdown would have on the economy. The original estimate was a 0.1 percentage point cut in GDP every two weeks, but they have corrected that to mean 0.1 percentage points. This figure should not surprise economists or Wall Street. Last week, Mike Gapen, an economist for Barclays Capital in New York said that 0.1% per week was the figure to watch. The Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all opened higher this morning. The market will be paying more attention to the shutdowns impact the longer it continues. I wasnt worried about the shutdown impacting GDP last week, but if it continues into this week then I will start discounting growth, says Steve Friedman, a senior economist for BNP Paribas and a former monetary policy director for the Federal Reserve in New York. Federal employees make up less than 10% of the American workforce. But many businesses depend on those workers for revenue, especially in the Beltway. You have to think of all the people that are not getting museum tickets, not going out to eat. And then consider around a million government staffers themselves who are not spending money, Friedman says. Thats where the shutdown impacts the private sector. Some 800,000 federal workers have been furloughed. Deltas CEO Ed Bastian told CNBCs Becky Quick today that the airline will lose an estimated $25 million this month. He blamed part of that loss on the government. Its not a huge loss, but its due to the fact that contractors and some officials are not traveling the way they would anticipate due to the shutdown, he said, adding that new airplanes are not getting inspected on time by the Federal Aviation Administration, a government agency. I think its a manageable situation, he said. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that third-quarter GDP was 3.5%. If 0.1% was trimmed from that over the last four weeks, then GDP would be 3.1%. The U.S. government would have to be shut down for at least the entire half of 2019 for GDP to shrink to zero. Every 10 weeks would take one full percentage point off GDP. Assuming U.S. GDP was 2.5% in the fourth quarter, a full first-quarter shutdown would drive GDP to around 1.5%. In current dollar terms, U.S. third-quarter GDP increased 4.9%, or $247.1 billion, to a level of $20.66 trillion , according to the BEA. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased by 7.6% or $370.9 billion. The government had a hand in that growth. Third-quarter GDP expansion was due to personal consumption, private inventory investment from companies, and state and federal government spending. Dimon, who kicked off the morning telling investors the shutdown could push the U.S. into recession territory, reportedly said during the earnings call this morning that the underlying statistics for the economy were not bad. He noted that JPMorgan will be prepared for the eventual downturn. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/01/15/can-the-government-shutdown-really-drive-gdp-to-zero/ |
Why are men so afraid of Gillette's toxic masculinity ad? | The razor company has a new commercial that takes its decades-old slogan, The best a man can get, and turns it on its ear. The ad, which depicts bullying, sexual harassment and more toxic masculinity, in other words asks, Is this the best a man can get? And a lot of men have taken to social media to lash out at Gillette and the commercial on YouTube, the spot has garnered 82,000 likes and a whopping 342,000 dislikes. It doesnt take a sociologist or a psychologist to recognize a lot of guilt and fear masquerading as anger. Piers Morgan, the TV personality never above digging in on an iffy position if it means attention, tweeted, I've used @Gillette razors my entire adult life but this absurd virtue-signaling PC guff may drive me away to a company less eager to fuel the current pathetic global assault on masculinity. Let boys be damn boys. Let men be damn men. I've used @Gillette razors my entire adult life but this absurd virtue-signalling PC guff may drive me away to a company less eager to fuel the current pathetic global assault on masculinity. Let boys be damn boys. Let men be damn men. https://t.co/Hm66OD5lA4 Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) January 14, 2019 Let Piers be Piers, more like. You wonder if hes actually seen the commercial, since let boys be boys is one of the excuses it challenges. Sending a message More responses: I will NEVER buy another @Gillette or @ProcterGamble product ever again. There latest commercial attacking men of disgusting. Attacking your customers is really smart! I will NEVER buy another @Gillette or @ProcterGamble product ever again. There latest commercial attacking men of disgusting. Attacking your customers is really smart! #GilletteAd Sean (@imgoingtomars1) January 15, 2019 Its not an attack on men, by the way. Its an attack on inappropriate and abusive behavior by men. This one is more direct: (Expletive) you @Gillette Im not buying your (expletive) ever again. Even former New Jersey Gov. Mike Huckabee weighed in. Get woke, go broke. @Gillette might be next to suffer that fate, after video by female director Kim Gehrig, depicting oafish male behavior and lecturing men on toxic masculinity. Why don't they sell soap-not their soap box? Get woke, go broke. @Gillette might be next to suffer that fate, after video by female director Kim Gehrig, depicting oafish male behavior and lecturing men on toxic masculinity. Gov. Mike Huckabee (@GovMikeHuckabee) January 15, 2019 Evidently he didnt read about the rise in value of Nike stock after their controversial Colin Kaepernick commercial. The company's stance On its website, Gillette says, Its time we acknowledge that brands, like ours, play a role in influencing culture. And as a company that encourages men to be their best, we have a responsibility to make sure we are promoting positive, attainable, inclusive and healthy versions of what it means to be a man. The company says it will donate $1 million a year to non-profits in the U.S. that help men become role models for the next generation. RELATED: Mid90s actors grapple with toxic masculinity Now, a couple of things here. Yes, it is a commercial Gillettes motives arent all altruistic. Their competitors have been gaining ground on them for some time. A little social consciousness cant hurt. They could have gone a different route, maybe tried to tap into the bro culture the guys whose behavior the company is challenging shave, too, after all. Good for Gillette for making such a thought-provoking ad. CLOSE Ben Brooks profiles 75 different men like Barack Obama, Patch Adams, and Bill Gates in a colorful picture book aimed to redefine masculinity for young boys by promoting kindness, sensitivity, and selflessness. Buzz60 Also: Its really in-your-face. Some of the more-reserved criticism claims that the bad behavior is stereotypical and not representative of all men. Duh. It's a commercial. They paint with a broad brush, in an attempt to reach as wide an audience, and attract as many eyeballs, as possible. Finally, not all of the reaction is negative. In fact, some people praise Gillette for the ad, and for addressing the issue head-on and in such a dramatic way. Simmer down But honestly, some of the anger directed at the ad floating around on social media is so overdone it almost seems like parody. Like this from a woman: (Expletive) Gillette. Men are meant to be masculine. Men and women are different. Not all men harass women and not all women are innocent. I LOVE MASCULINE MEN. Do not listen to their (expletive)! Simmer down. If calling men out on toxic behavior somehow offends you, no matter whos doing the calling, well, maybe a razor commercial isnt your biggest issue. And the last time I checked, Schick was still in business. Reach Goodykoontz at [email protected]. Facebook: facebook.com/GoodyOnFilm. Twitter: @goodyk. Click here to subscribe to azcentral.com. Go to connect.azcentral.com for a staff list, for more information about the newsroom and for details about upcoming events. FOLLOW AZCENTRAL'S THINGS TO DO Facebook | Twitter | Instagram Read or Share this story: https://www.azcentral.com/story/entertainment/media/2019/01/15/why-are-men-afraid-of-gillette-metoo-commercial/2581893002/ | https://www.azcentral.com/story/entertainment/media/2019/01/15/why-are-men-afraid-of-gillette-metoo-commercial/2581893002/ |
What are the rules for riding a scooter in Austin, anyway? | Ever since thousands of electric scooters for rent first began popping up on Austin street corners in April, customers have taken nearly 300,000 rides averaging about a mile a trip, city data shows. Users of every type of scooter currently need to follow the same rules bikes do in Austin, but a rider ordinance for dockless devices will be previewed in the spring, city transportation spokeswoman Jen Samp said. "We want to be able to equip our law enforcement with policy, and then give clarification where it needs for scooter riders," Samp said. How to ride: Scooter riders should follow traffic signals and signs and ride with the flow of traffic when using a bike lane. One person is allowed to ride a scooter at a time. Yield to pedestrians, which includes people walking, biking or those with disabilities. Wear a helmet if you are 17 or younger. Where to ride: Bike lanes, vehicle lanes and on the sidewalk are fair game for you and your scooter. Through September, the city Parks and Recreation Department is implementing a pilot program and scooters can be used in Johnson Creek, Northern and Southern Walnut Creek Trail, and Shoal Creek, south of 15th Street. Where not to ride: Don't ride your scooter or leave it on the Texas Capitol grounds, unless you want a hefty fine. The State Preservation Board charges scooter companies $150 for every device left on Capitol grounds, the American-Statesman reported in December. Don't ride on parkland, unless it is part of the pilot program. Definitely don't ride while intoxicated. You can be arrested for it, after all. Where to park: Don't block the sidewalk when you park make sure there's enough room for pedestrians to walk. Bad practices: Don't park your scooter in a way that obstructs pedestrian or vehicle traffic or in or between a parking spot for vehicles. Don't park your scooter on private property. Don't park scooters in the middle of the road. Don't text and scoot. Scooter use at UT: Scooters are allowed in the same places bikes are on the University of Texas campus, according to the university's parking and transportation services. Give pedestrians the right of way, and park them at bike racks. | https://www.statesman.com/news/20190114/what-are-rules-for-riding-scooter-in-austin-anyway |
Is Gillette's Disingenuous Lecture The Best A Man Can Get? | Gillette has long propagated its role in a man's life as the great confidence-builder, telling us a clean shave means you look good, you can get what you want and, yes, the ladies will take notice. But with its new ad under the banner, "The Best A Man Can Get," Gillette does an about-face. Whoops. No. Instead, the brand appears to blame men--all men--for aspiring to the best a man can get. It's brand whiplash. Consider this copy from a Gillette ad circa 2006 featuring David Beckham: You know the feeling. Every guy's had it. You're unbeatable, unstoppable, you've got that walking on water feeling. You look, they smile. And just as we hear the VO say "they smile" we see a beautiful woman smile at a man's rather aggressive, shadowy, even sinister gaze. And that's just one ad, there were hundreds over the years that effectively said, shave with Gillette, get the girl. I've never experienced such brand whiplash in my life. This campaign would have been wildly more powerful had the brand looked inward, not out. Gillette could have overtly admitted its role in encouraging the very behavior it's now lecturing men to resist. Oh, there's a short frame in the new spot at the :10 mark of what appears to be an old Gillette spot with a woman kissing the shaved cheek of a Gillette man, but it's way too subtle. CYA, at best. Instead Gillette chooses to draft off the political winds of the times and dissolve its brand equity around "male confidence" in the process. The brand made a calculated choice to support the newly-formed social convention that "men are bad." Did you notice at the 1:06 mark, the VO says, "To act the right way. Some already are." Meaning, some men are acting the right way. Not "most," but "some." Therefore, one can only conclude Gillette believes most men behave badly. Now, regardless of whether the correct answer is "some" or "most" here's why that decision may cost Gillette dearly. Lecturing your market is dangerous. Most individual men watching this new Gillette ad probably do not consider themselves to be bad men. Yet this ad suggests that most men are, indeed, bad. I predict a collective defensive reaction to this ad by most men--by any man who believes he is not bad. A reaction where these men are perfectly willing to acknowledge the problem (men know the #metoo movement is real), but are unwilling to be painted with the same brush as, say, Harvey Weinstein. Not to mention the painter here, as I said, is a brand who for decades was encouraging men to use Gillette to get the girl. Just a horrible brand decision. This ad is not like Nike's Colin Kaepernick ad. I know what you're thinking. Nike did an equally controversial ad using Colin Kaepernick. Raised quite a stink. I even wrote about it on these virtual pages, wondering if Nike was taking a stand on the NFL "kneeling controversy" or just celebrating a man who lived his conviction. The Nike ad says, Believe in something. Even if it means sacrificing everything. That is not a lecture. That is not blaming an entire market for the wrongdoing of some. That's a brand celebrating a man who truly believes in something and is willing to stand his ground. It's very on brand. It's very Nike. Nike's controversial ad increased sales during that period, but I predict Gillette's controversial ad will decrease sales. The Gillette ad is a lecture, it blames an entire market for the wrongdoing of some and celebrates nothing but the current social convention that "men are bad." Remember these men are exactly the people Gillette needs to buy their more expensive products now that the likes of Dollar Shave Club have come around. I am not suggesting there is not a problem with men, culturally. That's not my expertise, other than happening to be be a man. And I'm not saying it's a bad message for some brand to take on. But I am saying it's a bad message for this brand to take on. For Gillette, after decades of advertising emboldening men to be men (and all that goes with being men), to suddenly lecture them on their bad behavior is utterly disingenuous, inauthentic and likely a result of echo-chamber marketing teams looking to tap into the latest social movement for some "talk value." Well, we're talking. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/willburns/2019/01/15/is-gillettes-disingenuous-lecture-the-best-a-man-can-get/ |
Will the Government Shutdown Delay My Tax Refund? | Despite the shutdown, the IRS says it will provide refunds to taxpayers without delay. We're not so sure. As the record-setting government shutdown drags on and thousands of IRS employees sit at home, many Americans are understandably concerned about getting their tax refunds on time. However, the IRS has said that refunds will go out "as scheduled." Whether that actually happens remains to be seen. The IRS says that a significant portion of its workforce will be called back to work to process tax returns and issue refunds. More details regarding the IRS's plans are expected soon, but there's already resistance from the National Treasury Employees Union. The union has filed a lawsuit challenging the IRS's ability to force employees to work without pay. If the IRS can't recall enough employees, then the plan to issue refunds in a timely manner seems shaky. Back in 2011, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) instructed the IRS not to pay refunds during government shutdowns. As a result, almost $4 billion in tax refunds were delayed following the October 2013 shutdown. Now, however, the OMB says the IRS may pay tax refunds during a lapse in funding. Legal challenges to this opinion could also sink the IRS's plan. We won't have to wait too long to see if the IRS is able to keep its promise. Filing season begins January 28, 2019. If the IRS is indeed on schedule this year, refunds for early-bird filers could be issued as soon as mid-February. Our advice: File as early as possible. If the IRS falls behind schedule due to the shutdown, you don't want your return at the back of a potentially massive backlog. EDITOR'S PICKS Copyright 2019 The Kiplinger Washington Editors | https://news.yahoo.com/government-shutdown-delay-tax-refund-191824486.html |
Where Did the North Pole Go? | As the humans go about their affairs, living atop a thin crust floating on molten rock, the liquid iron in the Earths core is churning in strange, erratic ways. This is a problem because those humans, clever in some ways, have figured out that the movement of the liquid iron creates a magnetic field. For centuries, their compasses have pointed north. But where that is, exactly, is changing. After observing, if not exactly understanding, the magnetic fields recent behavior, scientists decided to update the World Magnetic Model, which underlies navigation for ships and planes today. As Nature reported, the update was supposed to come January 15. But the model is jointly developed by the British Geological Survey and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. government is shut down. The NOAA web page for the World Magnetic Model currently says, The website you are trying to access is not available at this time due to a lapse in appropriation. Read: The upheaval at the end of the world This isnt a big crisis: The north magnetic pole has always drifted. Since scientists began tracking its location in the 19th century, it has moved from Canada toward Siberia. (The north magnetic pole is close to but distinct from the north geographic pole, whose location is determined by the axis on which the Earth spins.) For most of the 20th century, the pole moved about nine miles a year. Then, beginning in the 1990s, it moved about 35 miles a year. | https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/north-pole-moving-shutdown/580330/?utm_source=feed |
Will I always face the threat of a peanut-laden kiss of death? | I write about the business of health care, focusing on how consumers interact with the system what we pay, what we get and why American care costs so much. But in this particular instance, I have another kind of authority: 26 years of life-threatening allergies to nuts and peanuts. Whenever I see a report touting possible new peanut allergy treatments, I devour it. I cant help it. Its an occupational hazard for any health journalist whose reporting specialty and medical history intertwine. If any one of them succeeds, it could change my life. Aimmune is just one company eyeing the prize. Childhood peanut allergy diagnoses increased more than 20 per cent in the United States from 2010 to 2017. The global market for relief is worth as much as $2 billion. The French drugmaker DBV Technologies is also working to commercialize a peanut allergy patch. Other companies, including industry giant Sanofi, are following their lead. I approached the question as I would any other assignment. I read the research, called immunologists, and spoke with economists and drug pricing experts about whether these treatments offer meaningful benefit. My mom also recalls another incident when she had to pick me up early from daycare because the class was making peanut butter bird feeders. And I spent too many years of pre-adolescence eating lunch at the designated peanut-free table. Now, I can only dream of flying to visit my parents for Christmas without worrying about whether my seatmates snacks might induce anaphylaxis. And yes, kissing someone who has just eaten peanut butter would put my life in danger. Ive carried epinephrine since I was 7 years old. My friends are trained to inject it in my leg, the standard procedure for an emergency allergen exposure. Though I luckily havent had to take a shot of it since I was 4. (Another child in my Montessori class had a peanut butter sandwich for lunch.) My friends call nuts Shefali poison. My allergies first surfaced when, as a 15-month-old, I picked Thai noodles off an aunts plate and developed hives on my face, and then a few months later when I tasted my moms kaju barfi an Indian dessert with cashews and ended up in the hospital. Nobody in my family had ever heard of peanut allergies. Medically, theres a lot we dont know about the risks, how much these drugs could help and how long any effects would last. One of the first things I heard: We are still in the infancy of these treatments, said Dr. Corinne Keet, a pediatric allergist at Johns Hopkins University. None of these treatments have been shown to prevent fatal reaction, Keet emphasized. The idea behind them is to desensitize people. Aimmunes peanut pill is modelled on the oral therapies some specialists use to wean allergic kids back on to nuts. This approach has gained popularity in recent years, especially for children with multiple allergies, or when its a substance particularly hard to avoid. A colleagues young daughter, who was born with multiple allergies, used that very treatment, as did a younger cousin of mine who, for the first several years of her life, was allergic to not joking almost everything but fruits and vegetables. In my case, this therapy came into vogue after I was too old to have a good chance of it weakening my sensitivities. How it works: Kids ingest tiny, escalating doses of peanut protein. They then stay on peanut protein Aimmune recommends the pill, though other doctors I spoke to suggested a little bit of peanut as a maintenance drug. But its unclear how much the new therapies would improve upon that ad hoc oral immunotherapy allergists are already offering. Instead of drugs, they use store-bought peanut protein, usually de-fatted peanut flour available online for as little as $1 a pound. This method isnt approved by the Food and Drug Administration, and often isnt covered by insurance though doctors visits can be billed as food challenges or other visits that are typically covered. In contrast, Aimmunes product is expected to cost between $5,000 and $10,000 for the first six months of use, and $300 to $400 per month after. Analysts predict DBVs will cost more than $6,000 for a years supply, though the company says it has not yet determined a price. DBV, Aimmunes chief rival, has come up with a wearable skin patch that would transmit tiny, desensitizing protein doses. It declined to estimate a price, but it does not view oral immunotherapy as a competitor, said Joseph Becker, a company spokesman. Theres excitement, theres caution and a lot of unanswered questions, warned Dr. Erwin Gelfand, a pediatrics and immunology professor at the University of Colorado. According to Aimmunes results, published in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine, two-thirds of allergic children could ingest 600 milligrams of peanut without harm after going through treatment. To be clear, even with Aimmunes help, someone like me still couldnt safely eat PB&J. But it would desensitize me enough that I could taste a friends wine even if he recently ate pad thai. Still, the treatment comes with caveats. While 496 children started the trial, only 372 completed it. Of the 20 per cent who backed out, half did so because of adverse events. About 14 per cent of kids getting treatment still had to take epinephrine, and one experienced anaphylaxis, a severe reaction that can involve rashes, vomiting, a tightening throat and difficulty breathing. (For an allergic kid, even the possibility is maybe one of the most terrifying things you can imagine.) Children who completed the regimen still had to take small doses of peanut protein daily, either the Aimmune drug or a controlled peanut serving. Statistically significant benefits were clear only in patients through age 17, though Dr. Daniel Adelman, the companys chief medical officer, said Aimmune plans to do a follow-up trial for adults. And the results dont indicate who is likely to benefit, or how long improvements would last. Thats impossible to know, Adelman said, though he suggested accidental peanut exposure is scary enough and pure avoidance ineffective enough that the treatment is still worth it. But all this means that anyone who has gone through Aimmunes regimen would still want to carry epinephrine, and try to avoid peanuts. Not everybody responds well, Gelfand said. When you factor in those details, the results are not all that impressive, he argued. Dr. Tina Sindher, a pediatric allergist at Stanford University, pointed out that the Aimmune pill is a repackaged, clinically tested version of that homegrown oral therapy many allergists have already been using. DBVs peanut patch, Viaskin, to a lesser extent, is the same more convenient, perhaps, and more regulated, but still a variation on the existing medical approach. This concept has been around for a long time, she said. Whats new is the addition of labour, standardization and federal oversight which companies then say demonstrates increased value. It highlights a pattern Ive noticed from my reporting: Drugmakers develop medication that refines a low-tech remedy, run a clinical trial to secure FDA approval, and then sell it at a higher price. For pharma, its a logical way to profit. But it puts patients in a bind. The hard outcome is we have these new products and theyre just about as good or slightly better than what we have, said Nicholson Price, an assistant professor at the University of Michigan Law School, who studies drug pricing. The closest authority I know: my mother, who raised me with peanut allergies when they were more or less unheard of, and is now doing it all over again for my 10-year-old brother. (My other brother, my twin, was allergy-free until about a year ago.) Its not worth it, my mom told me. Getting any of us to maintain a peanut dose without knowing how long that reduced sensitivity would last could induce what she called a false sense of security. This thinking isnt out of line, Sindher suggested. The way these studies are touted, she said, often gloss over the fact that theres a lot we dont know. So for now, Ill have to maintain my distance from the newsroom stash of Reeses Pieces. My epinephrine and I arent parting ways anytime soon. | https://www.thestar.com/life/2019/01/14/will-i-always-face-the-threat-of-a-peanut-laden-kiss-of-death.html |
What exactly is going on with the Eureka Women's March? | Women raise their hands protesting racism, bigotry and male chauvinism during Black Women's March rally, Saturday, March 3, 2018, in Houston. ( Marie D. De Jesus / Houston Chronicle ) Women raise their hands protesting racism, bigotry and male chauvinism during Black Women's March rally, Saturday, March 3, 2018, in Houston. 1 / 68 Back to Gallery The Women's March in Eureka continues to twist and turn. In less than a month, the Women's March in Eureka has been postponed, canceled, reinstated by new organizers, and made target of an impending boycott. Jesse Watters has mocked it on his show and tangled debates on the subject continue to crescendo. Late December, the original organizers announced they were postponing the march because the group was "overwhelming white." The reaction to this was mixed many, including the president of the Eureka chapter of the NAACP, were pleased by the news. Others were angry and disappointed their city wouldn't have a march. BACKGROUND: Northern California Women's March canceled for being 'overwhelmingly white' Not even a week had passed before Linda Atkins, a former Eureka city council member, decided to reinstate the march, and reschedule it with the help of several new organizers. Now, in a latest turn to the saga: Atkins has been hospitalized after suffering a heart attack over the weekend, the Lost Coast Outpost reported. MORE: Special San Francisco trash headed to the White House Despite this, the original organizers announced in a statement that they plan to boycott the Jan. 20 march, which Kathy Srabian, a co-organizer within the new leadership, will be taking control of. According to the event's Facebook page, 682 people have expressed interest in attending the march. Srabian told the Outpost that she doesn't see why the march must necessarily be organized by those "most oppressed by the current system." She also encouraged people to boycott, if that feels most appropriate to them. | https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/eureka-womens-march-too-white-atkins-boycott-13535874.php |
What Do Banks Believe Family Offices Should Focus On? | Often banks are the institutions that operate closest to family offices. For this reason, family offices also look to banks more frequently for guidance to ensure they're equipped to facilitate the growth and sustainability of the family enterprises that they serve. For family firms to thrive in the fast-evolving modern world of business, family offices need to be acutely aware of shifting investment trends and the need to expand their attention outside of financial services and into the sphere of governance, information security, management culture, succession and specialist in-house expertise. Management Culture Two key performance enablers that demand attention within the family office space are agility and purpose, both proving to be highly effective ingredients of successful management culture. When companies have an articulated purpose that transcends products and services and is more significant than just money, customer loyalty and employee engagement is superior, ultimately leading to improved long-term financial performance. Purpose consultant Aaron Hurst, the founder of Imperative, found that 42% of companies that were not considered purpose- driven experienced a decline in year-on-year revenue. In contrast, 85% of purpose-led companies enjoyed positive growth. UBS & Campden Wealth 2018 Global Family Office Report indicates that only a third of family offices have a clearly defined purpose statement, which is evidence of the work required to address this gap. Agility is also essential to success. Michael Hugos, principal at Centre for Systems Innovation, estimates that companies who achieve adequate levels of agility can grow profit by an additional 2%-4% per annum. Companies should be looking at reducing structures and processes to promote flexibility, creativity and swift decision-making. Governance And Controls According to Emile Salawi, Head of Family Offices at BNP Paribas, By improving governance, the whole office can be more efficient, and the succession to next generation can also be managed far more effectively. Governance enables fast decision-making, empowering employees at all levels to make decisions according to a clear mandate. Governance structures and guidelines relating to information security and decision-making are generally more informal within the family office space, impacting efficiency and making these firms vulnerable to fraud and cyber-attacks. On this topic, Salawi claims that Cyber-security is one of the three most important focus areas for family offices. Traditionally, families have relied on banks to exercise necessary governance and compliance requirements when it comes to protecting information and funds, but the time has come for families and family offices to take more responsibility for the protection of their own data, with consideration to the entire information and document flow. Investment Trends Are Evolving According to Salawi, future-centric family offices should take note of how investment allocations and investment drivers are changing within the sector. Family offices are becoming leaner and focused, with increasing emphasis on direct investments, impact investing and more active participation in the management of the businesses that they invest in. Commenting further on direct investments, Salawi adds that very few families are taking majority stakes in businesses, rather securing minority stakes coupled with more active involvement in board decisions, and leveraging their networks to grow these companies. Direct investment into real estate (17%) and private equity (22%), now account for approximately 39% of total family office investments, and this allocation is expected to grow in the coming years, as funds shift into higher yielding, more illiquid assets. Impact Investing And The Next Generation The motivation behind investment is evolving, with social and environmental impact becoming a serious consideration. As an investment driver, impact investing is becoming increasingly popular amongst family offices, with 32% surveyed now reporting involvement in this space, a 4.2% increase versus 2017. Dr. Rebecca Gooch, Director of Research, Campden Wealth comments in their latest report: Impact investing will be an important space to watch over the coming years. Our research shows that the next generation, and millennials, in particular, are driving impact investing within the family office space. Explore Specialist In-house Expertise According to Salawi: Family offices need to understand the constraints of banks on various regulatory and compliance matters, for example concerning KYC (Knowing your customer). Hence having specialist in-house expertise can be very beneficial, eg, legal counsel, allowing for quicker reactions and decision-making. The Succession Challenge Succession planning in family businesses is often not prioritized until it is too late. It is estimated that 80 to 90 percent of U.S. businesses are family owned, yet less than a third of family businesses succeed into the second generation, and only 10 percent survive into the third. If securing multi-generational participation in the family business is a priority, more focus needs to be placed on succession planning. Worldwide, understanding key trends, unique opportunities, threats and emerging needs within this sector is crucial for family offices to provide an effective, holistic service to their families and clients. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/francoisbotha/2019/01/15/what-do-banks-believe-family-offices-should-focus-on/ |
Can 'Catering And Delivery' Bolster Chipotle's Same Store Sales 10% By 2021? | Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) continued a strong performance in its third quarter, with the company beating consensus expectations on earnings. The 8.6% revenue increase was driven by a comparable sales increase of 4.4% and 28 new store openings. This positive performance aided in the restaurant level margin expansion of 260 basis points. We expect these strong trends to continue in the fourth quarter as well. In 2018 Chipotle has recorded nearly a 45% surge in its stock price. We have maintained our long-term price estimate for Chipotle at $468. In our interactive dashboard Whats the Upside for Chipotle if we provide a scenario in which we estimate Chipotles Share Price in a situation where the Catering and Delivery offering bolsters its same store sales by 2021. Below we detail the scenario further. The company is expected to continue growing at 8-9% and post approximately $6.1 billion in revenue in the year 2021. It is expected that the Average number of restaurants will reach approximately 2971 by 2021 while expected revenue from each restaurant will touch $2.1 million. We expect the Net Income margin to continue improving and it is anticipated at 7.25% of Total Revenue in 2021. We also estimate the P/E multiple to be 26.65 In our scenario we estimate the expected revenue from each restaurant to reach approximately $2.3 million with a further improvement of 50 basis points in Net Income margin on the back of the growth in the Catering and Delivery offering. Overall, for this scenario estimates result in an upside of $82 for Chipotle, which is almost 17.6% higher than our current Trefis Price of $468. Explore example interactive dashboards and create your own. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/01/15/can-catering-and-delivery-bolster-chipotles-same-store-sales-10-by-2021/ |
What's the scoop? Is Graeter's in Anderson Township closing? | CLOSE Kathrine visits Hotel Covington for a latte and talks about medical marijuana in Ohio, January babies, and fast food at the White House. Kathrine Nero, @KathrineNero on Instagram/Twitter Graeter's Ice Cream. (Photo: Provided) Ice cream fans in Anderson and Union Townships will be minus one favorite sweet spot for treats beginning Jan. 20. Graeters Ice Cream announced plans to expand and enhance one of the familys flagship locations, the Cherry Grove scoop shop on Beechmont Avenue in Anderson Township. The work requires the temporary closure of the location. The scoop shop is expected to reopen sometime in early April, just in time to meet candy and bakery needs for the Easter season, according to the ice cream maker. During renovations, Graeters said guests can still visit its locations in Loveland, Hyde Park or Taylor Mill, Kentucky. The temporary closure of the Cherry Grove scoop shop begins 6 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 20. Read or Share this story: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2019/01/15/whats-scoop-graeters-anderson-closing/2584554002/ | https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2019/01/15/whats-scoop-graeters-anderson-closing/2584554002/ |
Who's behind the egg that broke the Instagram world record? | By now, you've heard about the egg, which surpassed a photo of Kylie Jenner's daughter, Stormi, on Sunday as the most-liked post on Instagram. Here's what we know so far: 1. The egg account holder goes by "Henrietta." Henrietta is, according to a report from BuzzFeed News, a "chicken from the British countryside." 2. The account holder, however, claims to live in London. Im an individual living in London, the account holder told The Independent earlier this week. They also revealed that they only have 400 followers on their personal Instagram account. 3. The egg's name is Eugene, allegedly. In some interviews, the account holder goes by the name Eugene, bypassing the whole "Henrietta" schtick entirely. 4. The person who did the egg was participating in dry January at the time. Nothing breeds creativity like suddenly not drinking. 5. Fans of the egg are called the "Egg Gang." Sure. 6. Supreme Patty is a suspect. So far, the only public figure to have implied responsibility for the egg is Supreme Patty, an Instagram star who smokes hot sauce and is known for squeezing lemon juice into his own eyes. While Patty didn't claim he did the egg outright, one of his friends did say so in a TMZ interview. (This is, of course, to be taken with a lemon-sized grain of salt.) For what it's worth, we do not think Supreme Patty did the egg. It's more likely that he's just capitalizing on the big meme of the moment. He did get an egg tattoo, though, so kudos on committing to the bit. And the egg does follow him on Instagram ... oh god. We've reached out to Supreme Patty and will update this post if we hear back. Until then, stay tuned for more egg updates. This story is developing ... | https://news.yahoo.com/whos-behind-egg-broke-instagram-194311538.html |
Do Canadian charities and foundations have too much money sitting on the sidelines? | John Hallward is chairman of GIV3, a charity that encourages Canadians to donate and volunteer. I recently asked the folks at Statistics Canada for help with a question: What is the sum total of all assets owned by charities and foundations in Canada, and how has this trended over time? They obliged, providing me with the answer from all 85,000 charities and foundations, as reported in the T3010s filed with the Canada Revenue Agency. The numbers raised several questions in my mind. Story continues below advertisement If we exclude operating charities such as hospitals and educational institutions (which need buildings, equipment and supplies to provide their charitable services), foundations alone have now accumulated $80-billion, largely as endowment investments. This has grown at an annual rate of more than 10 per cent during the past decade and has more than doubled in the past five years. This represents a great deal of money accumulating on the sidelines, rather than being put to use supporting charities and those currently in need in our communities. I wonder how Canadians feel about this unused $80-billion while so many charities and individuals currently struggle to make ends meet. As money is donated to foundations, charitable tax credits are given from the public purse to the donors, costing each of us as taxpayers. I appreciate that foundations are required to grant and expense 3.5 per cent of their capital each year toward charitable purposes, and that many foundations exceed this level. However, the numbers show that in aggregate, the amounts being held in endowments are increasing much faster than the amounts being granted. For comparison, U.S. foundations are required to grant and expense at least 5 per cent a year. Raising the minimum disbursement requirement in Canada would have two major benefits. First, more money would be put to work immediately in our communities, helping alleviate the massive funding pressure so many charitable organizations are currently experiencing. And second, it would ensure that current taxpayers see the benefits of the lost tax revenue in their own lifetime. If the required level of disbursement was doubled to 7 per cent from 3.5 per cent, and assuming that all foundations collectively give 5 per cent currently, then this 2-per-cent net increase would yield approximately $1.6-billion more a year for our charities. I appreciate that doubling the disbursement requirement of foundations would result in the endowment eroding over time (perhaps over 30 years), but this is precisely the goal. It is morally right, and we need to have these charitable funds used now rather than sitting on the sidelines (often well past the lifetime of the donors!). Nor should we worry that we will not have foundations in the future. Every generation creates both new wealth and new philanthropists (think Balsillie, Gates, Buffet, Zuckerberg, Bezos and so on). Furthermore, as baby boomers continue to age, there is a significant amount of money likely to be donated over the next 15 to 30 years. There is every reason to believe that new dollars will be available to continue supporting the charities of coming generations. Story continues below advertisement Story continues below advertisement I urge foundation leaders, policy-makers and the public to consider this issue more closely and act quickly for the public good. Imagine what could be accomplished with billions more flowing into the charitable sector each year. | https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-do-canadian-charities-and-foundations-have-too-much-money-sitting-on/ |
Could Community Christian College save junior college football in Arizona? | It's getting late in the football recruiting process for current high school seniors who want to play in college but need that bridge to get to a four-year school. With the Maricopa Community College District canceling football for financial reasons, and the programs in Tucson, Safford and Yuma dying, most Arizona's high school coaches have been telling their players to seek opportunities in California, Texas, Kansas or elsewhere. "There are definitely many less opportunities now and that hurts a lot of kids, especially kids like ours, who are not highly recruited," said Sahuarita Walden Grove coach Corey Noble. Enter Community Christian College and the Hohokam Junior College Athletic Conference. Thousands of future student athletes are counting on each of us to do our part, please take a moment to read and share. pic.twitter.com/zYMQom7Rkd Hohokam Junior College Athletic Conference (@HJCAC) January 6, 2019 Mickey Nunez, the Arizona director of the online Community Christian College, said news will be released later this week on the formation of four teams in the Valley to play in the HJCAC next season. That news has already started to come out. JUCO FB IS BACK IN AZ! More info: https://t.co/yIwvNbLiyqpic.twitter.com/vnoHMvBOyZ Vince D'Aliesio --Coach D (@VDAliesio) January 15, 2019 So, instead of Mesa Community College, Phoenix College, Glendale Community College and Scottsdale Community College, the names on players' jerseys around the Valley next season could have "Community Christian College" on them with their city names. "We're registering students," Nunez said. "Theyre supposed to have press release. They're going to be announcing the format and the coaches. It will be ready to go by the end of the week." Community Christian College is an online program based in Redlands, Calif. There are regional athletic directors: In Arizona, Florida, Louisiana and South Carolina. According to its website, starting this summer, the quarterly course charge is $197.22 per unit for courses. That will increase the following year to $219.44 per unit. But students can apply for financial aid, Nunez said. There are private donors helping with costs, Nunez said. Players take a break during practice at Mesa Community College in Mesa, Ariz. on Aug. 16, 2018. (Photo: Patrick Breen/The Republic) The HJCAC is working to secure facilities to use around the Valley. There isn't housing for athletes. Nunez said that the accredited online courses can be taken at home, but he added, "We're going to have an on-the-ground campus to facilitate them and help them." "A kid who is failing, we send an email to the coaches that they need to send them here instead of practice to make sure they're catching up on their work," Nunez said. "I think they'll have a lot of success this way. We're keeping them accountable. We want to make sure they're succeeding. It's going to be awesome. "With freshmen, 30 percent drop out. They're not life-ready. If we get them past that first year of school, we should be able to get them to graduate and break that cycle of poverty." Phoenix Greenway coach Ed Cook said that junior college coaches from out of state have been reaching out to him since the Maricopa Community Colleges dropped football after last season. "It's tough because some kids need JUCO to mature as a football player and or as a young man," Cook said. "Now they have to be ready not just for football but also mentally, socially and also financially like going to a four-year school." Nunez believes the HJCAC can blossom into a viable option, during which the student-athletes can either obtain an Associate of Arts degree or leave after a year to play at a four-year university. Many high school coaches have been telling their players looking for college options that junior college football in Arizona is dead, but Nunez believes junior college football in Arizona will be back in the fall. "Every day, I get phone calls," he said. High school coaches are in wait-and-see mode. "The new potential opportunities of the HJCAC private JUCOS are interesting and I am hopeful that these will allow many of our athletes an opportunity to compete at the next level," Noble said. MORE SPORTS | https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/high-school/2019/01/15/online-community-college-program-save-juco-football-arizona/2584356002/ |
Why is the Canadian government helping to kill local journalism? | The steady bleeding of Canadian advertising dollars to Silicon Valley tech giants has burst into a full-blown hemorrhage. Data released in December suggest that the forces undermining Canadian journalism are advancing much faster than the governments attempt to address them. More than $6 billion per year in internet advertising travels down a tax-free highway south of the border to Google, Facebook, Amazon, and a handful of other internet media companies, writes Daniel Bernhard. ( Dmien Myer/Agence France-Press ) According to the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), Canadian internet advertising spending grew in 2017 by a staggering 23 per cent to $6.8 billion. Canadian advertisers now spend more online than they do on TV, radio and print combined. The 2018 figures have not yet been tabulated, but the IAB estimates an increase of $945 million over 2017 levels a 14 per cent increase brining Canadas annual internet advertising bill to $7.7 billion. Most of that money about 80 per cent of it, or $6.2 billion per year travels south down a tax-free highway to Google, Facebook, Amazon, and a handful of other internet media companies. And as we know, companies like Facebook dont exactly bring us truthful, trustworthy journalism. The consequences for democracy are serious. Article Continued Below Heres the thing: Ottawa actually greases this slide with billions of public dollars. Our tax laws prohibit companies from deducting the cost of foreign advertising. But a loophole in the law allows Ottawa to look the other way when Canadian companies buy digital foreign advertising. A $1.6 billion subsidy to companies that buy ad space from the likes of Facebook. Heres how ridiculous this is. A Canadian company advertising in the New York Times cannot deduct the cost of the ad. But if they put the exact same ad on nytimes.com, they can claim the full deduction. Why the Canadian government subsidizes foreign internet media companies that kill Canadian journalism is beyond me. But thats exactly what it is doing. This rich tax deduction cost Canadians an estimated $1.6 billion in 2018. To put that into perspective, the government spends $1.2 billion on CBC. And the recently announced support package for the journalism industry is worth just $120 million. If Ottawa were to close the internet advertising tax loophole, Canadian companies could still buy all the ads they want from foreign publishers like Facebook. But these would be treated like all other foreign advertising, and they would not be tax deductible. We estimate this move would repatriated about $600 million that is currently going south for Canadian media that tell the truth, follow the rules, and contribute to our society. Article Continued Below And it would mean increased corporate tax revenue of over $1.45 billion annually. That would make a huge difference to struggling Canadian media much more than the $120 million the government is offering in its bailout. The scale of Ottawas plan doesnt come close to matching the scope of the problem. It boggles the mind that with the Canadian journalism industry on its deathbed, all the government could muster was a kiss goodbye. We need to do better. The good news is that we know what to do: close the internet advertising loophole. The bad news is that the government isnt doing it. The consequences of this special treatment go far beyond lost public money. The story of Toronto City Councillor Kristen Wong-Tam is instructive. Recently, the veteran politician revealed that she was the target of a vicious smear during the 2018 Toronto municipal election. A political opponent and a gang of his supporters mobbed Wong-Tam, alleging corruption on her part, and they recorded the ambush on their phones. Wong-Tam called them vicious, ridiculous and easy-to-disprove lies. But it didnt matter. Her opponent had what he wanted: video of an intimidated Wong-Tam walking away without refuting the charges. This video and other false allegations were shared far and wide on social media, boosted by paid Facebook ads. Canadian media are subject to hate speech, defamation and slander laws. They would face legal action if they published this kind of propaganda, even as advertising. Because we let them. Its bad enough that these tech companies circulate misinformation and extremism with impunity. Whats worse is that in doing so, they are siphoning advertising revenue away from respectable Canadian publishers that sustain our democracy with quality journalism. Ottawas messed up tax policy does not just empower the sickness. It also suppresses the cure. So heres some unsolicited advice to Finance Minister Morenau. Close the internet advertising loophole. Daniel Bernhard is Executive Director and Spokesperson of the watchdog group FRIENDS of Canadian Broadcasting. Follow him @Sendinthewolf Read more about: | https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2019/01/15/why-is-the-canadian-government-helping-to-kill-local-journalism.html |
Who is Harriet Blue in the James Patterson and Candice Fox book series? | If you're one of the many already engrossed in the Harriet Blue series by prolific author James Patterson and Australian crime fiction master Candice Fox then you already know the stage is set for "Liar Liar," the third in the four-part book series, out Jan. 13. "Liar Liar" by James Patterson and Candice Fox (Photo: Little, Brown) But perhaps you're just getting starting on the series -- maybe you made a New Year's resolution to read more books and chose this thriller to kick off your year. Maybe you picked up this book out of order and want some background. If that's you, we have a guide to the series -- including a fifth book you might not know about and the latest on the release date for the fourth book in the Harriet Blue series. The main character in "Never Never," "Fifty Fifty" and now, "Liar Liar," was first introduced in a short, 176-page "BookShots" novel that precedes the Harriet Blue series. The series is set in Australia. According to Blue herself, "I'm an experienced hunter of humans.... My job gives me access to crime alerts... I can tag a person's file and get a notification every time they're brought in, even if their original charge never stuck." Blue grew up in the foster system in Australia with her brother, and best friend, Sam. Both siblings have a history of bad behavior -- including a history of fighting at school and bouncing between hopeful adoptive parents and group homes. Not a fan of institutions, Blue was brought in as the lone female member of the sex crimes squad by the police chief, who is both her boxing coach and father figure. The BookShots story -- "Black & Blue" -- is a prequel not officially included in the four-part series, but functions as an introduction to the hard-charging Australian detective Harriet Blue. In the book, college women are showing up dead, and she's pushing to solve the Georges River Killer case, "most savage serial killer in our nation's history." While "Black & Blue" introduces Harriet -- or Harry, as some call her -- it also tells the story of the thrilling case she chases before the series begins. Published: Dec. 6, 2016. "Never Never" is book 1: After her brother is accused of a series of gruesome murders, Harriet is transferred to another department while the media circus descends at home. She's thrown into a case in the Australian outback, where the disappearance of a worker in a remote mine is just the beginning. Published: Jan. 16, 2017. "Fifty Fifty" by James Patterson and Candice Fox (Photo: Little, Brown) "Fifty Fifty" is book 2: Sam Blue is on trial for murder, but the only person who believes he is innocent is Harriet. Meanwhile, a diary turns up with a plot to kill an entire small town -- and time is of the essence for Harriet, Sam and a mysterious person who holds the key to the truth about Sam's case. Published: Feb. 19, 2018 "Liar Liar" is book 3: Harriet Blue is on the run, and a known killer is on the hunt. In this book, out Tuesday, the Sydney police are chasing one of their own, and Harry's own freedom is at stake. Published: Jan. 13 "Hush Hush" is book 4: The final book in the series has Harriet solving a case in order to earn her freedom -- and a woman and her child's lives are also at stake. You may see a May 2019 date on an Amazon listing for the book, but that's not accurate. Sorry eager readers. Current plans, according to the publisher, have "Hush Hush" slated for a fall 2020 publication. Read or Share this story: https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/books/2019/01/15/who-harriet-blue-james-patterson-and-candice-fox-series/2572553002/ | https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/books/2019/01/15/who-harriet-blue-james-patterson-and-candice-fox-series/2572553002/ |
Why does NC GOP believe Mark Harris should take office? | North Carolina Republicans ratcheted up their drive to put Mark Harris in Congress on Tuesday, questioning the entire legitimacy of a state investigation into allegations of election fraud in the 9th Congressional District. North Carolina Republican Party Chairman Robin Hayes accused elections officials of one stalling pattern after another in a meeting with reporters in Charlotte. When there (isnt) evidence that irregularities would change the outcome of the election, Mark Harris should be certified, Hayes said. If they had discovered a shred of evidence, they would have made it public. State law, however, allows for the board to call for a new election if Irregularities or improprieties occurred to such an extent that they taint the results of the entire election and cast doubt on its fairness. The McCready campaign, in a legal brief filed Monday in Wake County Superior Court, called that finding an inevitable conclusion to the case. Digital Access for only $0.99 For the most comprehensive local coverage, subscribe today. Democrats, too, have accused Harris and his campaign of delaying the investigation. In a legal brief filed by the state board Monday, it argued that the Harris campaigns delayed production of documents is a substantial source of the prolonged investigation. Wake County Superior Court Judge Paul C. Ridgeway has scheduled a hearing in Harris case for 10 a.m. Jan. 22. Harris has asked the court to certify the election results or order the state boards staff to certify the results. The district that runs from Charlotte to Bladen County has remained unrepresented since the new Congress took office on Jan. 3. The election, in which Harris leads Democrat Dan McCready by 905 votes in unofficial totals, has been clouded by the allegations of fraud, particularly in Bladen County. The allegations of fraud involving mail-in absentee ballots surfaced after the nine-member bipartisan elections board voted unanimously Nov. 27 not to certify the results. Three days later, the board called for a hearing into what then-vice chairman Josh Malcolm called claims of numerous irregularities and concerted fraudulent activities related to absentee mail ballots . . . to assure that the election is determined without taint of fraud or corruption. But the hearing, originally scheduled for Jan. 11, was delayed indefinitely after a three-judge panel dissolved the board on Dec. 28 as part of a separate legal dispute. Since then, the elections staff has continued its investigation. A new board is scheduled to be named on Jan. 31. Board spokesman Patrick Gannon said in the meantime, the staff continues to conduct a thorough investigation into absentee voting irregularities in the 2018 election. We look forward to presenting a full picture of the investigation to the public when a new State Board is seated, he said. At Tuesdays news conference, Hayes used a series of PowerPoint slides to paint a timeline of the controversy, cast doubt on affidavits submitted by the McCready campaign and call into question the motives of Malcolm, a Robeson County Democrat who had been the boards chairman at the time it was dissolved. Hayes argued that officials should have provided evidence that irregularities would have changed the elections outcome. Asked why not wait two weeks until a new board is appointed, he said he has little faith in Malcolm, who could come back and head the board. Theres no reason to believe that he would not do what hes already done, which is delay, Hayes said. Its unclear who will be on the board, which will have three Democrats and two Republicans. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper will make the appointments Jan. 31 from among those recommended by party chairs. Hayes sought to portray Malcolm as having conflicts as a partisan Democrat whose wife once donated to Cooper and whose daughter worked for the state Democratic Party last year. Malcolm told the Observer that no state law prevents his family from being politically involved. I do have an adult daughter whos a strong-minded, intelligent American Indian female who walks her own walk and makes her own decisions, he said. Malcolm said he wouldnt discuss the election or the lingering issues related to it. But he did note that the board twice declined to certify the 9th District election once unanimously and once by a vote of 7-2 with two GOP board members joining Democrats. In court filings, attorneys for Harris said state election officials cherry-picked the congressional race from among others clouded by allegations of election fraud. And they say Harris apparent margin of victory 905 votes exceeds the total number of votes in dispute. Meanwhile lawyers for the state board argued that the investigation should continue. By law, the State Board of Elections is . . . obligated to conduct, and complete, a full investigation into the alleged fraud impacting the (9th District) election, they wrote, adding that Harris demand that the election be certified before completion of that investigation is supported by neither sound electoral principles nor (state law). | https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article224556845.html |
Could Soo Locks funds be diverted to build Trump's wall? | Buy Photo In this file photo, the Great Lakes Trader and the tug Joyce L. VanEnkevort exits the Poe Lock at the Soo Locks in Sault Ste. Marie. (Photo: Photos by Dale G. Young / The Detroit News, Photos by Dale G. Young / The De) Washington The White House has considered diverting money for Army Corps of Engineers projects to build a border wall, but Michigan lawmakers are split on whether projects such as the Soo Locks upgrade could be among those tapped. The White House recently asked the Pentagon to identify civil works projects whose funding could be redirected to the wall if President Donald Trump uses his authority to do so under an emergency declaration. Trump has repeatedly said he'll use emergency powers if he and Democrats don't reach a deal to fund the wall, though the president seems to have put the idea on hold for now. "Im not looking to call a national emergency. This is so simple, you shouldnt have to," Trump said Monday. Nevertheless, Michigan's Democratic Sens. Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters are seeking assurances from the Army Corps on whether officials are considering reallocating funding away from the Soo Locks or "other agency projects critical to the safety and well-being of Michigan and the entire Great Lakes." "It is imperative that no funding be diverted from the operations and maintenance of the Soo Locks or the initial work necessary to construct a new (large) lock," the senators wrote to the assistant secretary of the Army, stressing the economic impact of an unplanned outage. "Likewise, it is critical that no funds be diverted from projects essential to Great Lakes navigation and public safety." But Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Midland, on Tuesday sought to minimize concerns that funds for the Soo Locks are in jeopardy. It is a false choice to say funding for the Soo Locks is at risk," said Mooleaar, who supports Trump's border wall and sits on the House Appropriations Committee. "We can build the Soo Locks and protect our border. In fact, we passed a law last year that I voted for that protects the Soo Locks funding from being redirected." Moolenaar was referring to legislative language that prohibits the secretary of the Army for Civil Works from deviating from the list of new construction starts for 2019 after its been submitted to Congress. Trump in October signed the bill from Congress authorizing funding for the long-planned shipping lock in Sault Ste. Marie that links Lake Huron and Lake Superior. Plans call for construction of a second large lock estimated at $1 billion which lawmakers and shipping interests argue is needed in the case of an outage of the only other large lock at the complex. The new 1,200-foot-long lock would mirror the 50-year-old Poe lock, which is the only one of the four shipping locks at Sault Ste. Marie that can handle the largest freighters carrying 89 percent of the cargo through the corridor. The Soo project has seen new momentum in the last year, including catching the attention of Trump, who promised to "fix" the locks during an April visit to Macomb County. And last month state and federal officials signed an agreement committing $52 million in state funds to the Soo Locks upgrade, potentially accelerating the project's completion by almost a year. The Army Corps referred to the Pentagon questions about cancelling or delaying projects in the case of a national emergency. "The Department of Defense is reviewing available authorities and funding mechanisms to identify options to enable border barrier construction," Capt. Bill Speaks, a U.S. Army spokesman, said by email. "As there has not been such a declaration made, it would be inappropriate to comment further on those efforts." [email protected] Read or Share this story: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/01/15/army-corps-soo-locks-border-wall/2584769002/ | https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/01/15/army-corps-soo-locks-border-wall/2584769002/ |
Will Western Digital Cut Its Dividend in 2019? | Shares of Western Digital (NASDAQ: WDC) fell 5% on Jan. 14 after Evercore analyst C.J. Muse downgraded the stock to Underperform and expressed concerns about its competitive threats and dividend. In a note to investors, Muse warned that WD's competitive position was "not ideal," and claimed that its share of the enterprise SSD (solid state drive) market had "roughly halved in the last few years" to about 12%. Muse also pointed out that low market prices would reduce the average prices of its memory chips. A platter-based HDD. More Image source: Getty Images. Muse reduced his price target on the stock from $35 to $30, and warned that WD would be "hard pressed" to support its dividend with its free cash flow (FCF) this year. A closer look at Western Digital's dividend WD currently pays a forward yield of 5%, which hovers near a multi-year high due to the stock's 50% decline over the past 12 months. WD started paying a dividend in 2012, but it hasn't raised that payout since 2015. WDC Dividend Chart More WDC Dividend data by YCharts Over the past four quarters, WD's dividend payments eclipsed its earnings per share by nearly 120%, but only used up 21% of its FCF. This indicates that WD's dividend should stay safe if its business doesn't deteriorate too quickly. During last quarter's conference call, CEO Stephen Milligan declared that WD was "not looking at cutting the dividend." | https://news.yahoo.com/western-digital-cut-dividend-2019-231700320.html |
Will Intel Be Upgraded to a Buy in 2019? | Technology remains one of the brighter spots as fears of a broader slowdown unnerve investors. But how to pick winners remains a challenge, especially since the market and the stocks are simply not what they were a few years back. As far as semiconductor stocks go, Intel INTC is a bellwether. In the past, while semiconductor growth was largely determined by computers, the company was the largest supplier of the microprocessors driving them. For the future, it has broadened its scope to cover memory, logic, storage and networking to target emerging markets like cloud, artificial intelligence, 5G, IoT and self-driving cars. Intel has also increased its investment in China, which can improve its standing with Chinese regulators and help it take a bite of that growth even as the government doubles down on its own semiconductor industry. The U.S. semiconductor industry has also changed substantially since the last economic downturn. First, Moores Law has become a thing of the past, meaning that companies are no longer able to lower cost every 18 months (or even 2 years) by shrinking transistors. The difficulties of shrinking beyond 10nm seem to have taken the market by surprise. Taiwan Semiconductor TSM is the only one on its way to ship 7nm for Advanced Micro Devices AMD after Globalfoundries bowed out, leaving AMD and International Business Machines IBM in the lurch. Intel, which has its own fabs, is having the greatest difficulty getting its 10nm chips out the door, losing its process lead to TSM. Samsung is the other major foundry that can jump onto the scene, but it wont ship anything soon, and certainly not this year. Second, although the semiconductor market has been cyclical historically, chances are, the cyclical change wont be as dramatic this time. For one, there are multiple markets gobbling up semiconductors (auto and soon autonomous driving, consumer, IoT, AR/VR, factory automation, the list goes on), which in combination should generate some growth. Also, technology challenges are raising cost for producers that will have to be passed on to buyers, contributing to higher prices. There are separate challenges for the memory market at this time. After a stellar two years of tighter supply and robust prices, things are likely to change this year because of pressures on both the demand and supply sides. On the demand side, there is a limit to the amount of price increase the market can absorb given depressed PC sales and declining smartphone demand as offset by expansion in the cloud. On the supply side, memory makers have been expanding capacity and Chinese companies are rushing onto the scene with three new fabs (this wont impact the market until next year). Whats Going for Intel Intel is the most trusted brand with clout at system integrators and other customers. Moreover, it is the company offering the most powerful chips for the commercial and gaming focused PCs, the two growth areas within PCs. So it is likely to remain dominant at PCs, which remains a big market. The data center segment has benefited from companies moving to the cloud and Intel is solidly positioned here with strong offerings driving compelling performance per watt. Intel remains dominant at the world's top 500 supercomputers with a 95.2% share and will harness its 48-core Xeon Cascade Lake CPU, Optane memory and storage, connectivity hardware like the Omni-Path Architecture and software to offer a compelling solution that will be very hard to beat, no matter where the competition is coming from. AMDs 7nm EPYC line, IBM Power solutions and NVIDIA NVDA will make inroads, but its very unlikely that Intel will be substantially impacted. Earlier, the company tried to make a mark in the mobile space but missed the opportunity completely. It has however jumped into the middle of the action with self-driving cars, IoT and 5G. Alphabet GOOGL is the farthest along its self-driving roadmap and the companys technology has Intel inside. On the 5G front, Intel remains behind market leader Qualcomm QCOM, which will ship modems supporting the standard in the first half of 2019. But Intel is close on its heels with volume shipments of its XMM8160 discrete chipset supporting both standalone (SA) and non-standalone (NSA) 5G modes along with thelegacy fallback modes 4G, 3G and 2G in the second half. | https://news.yahoo.com/intel-upgraded-buy-2019-222110763.html |
Is an Earnings Beat in the Cards for M&T Bank (MTB) in Q4? | M&T Bank Corporation MTB is scheduled to report fourth quarter and 2018 results on Jan 17, before the opening bell. The companys revenues and earnings are expected to improve from the year-ago quarter. M&T Banks third-quarter 2018 results displayed top-line improvement supported by rising margins. Further, lower provisions for credit losses were reported. The company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate backed by these factors. Also, fall in expenses was another positive. The banks earnings surprise history seems impressive as it delivered positive earnings surprises in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 7.1%. M&T Bank Corporation Price and EPS Surprise M&T Bank Corporation Price and EPS Surprise | M&T Bank Corporation Quote Activities of M&T Bank during the October-December quarter were adequate to win analysts confidence. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter has been revised slightly upward over the past seven days. Also, the consensus estimate of $3.51 indicates an increase of 32% in the banks earnings from the prior-year quarter. Overall, the Zacks Consensus Estimate projects year-over-year revenue growth of 3.3% to $1.50 billion for the to-be-reported quarter. Factors to Influence Q4 Results Net Interest Income (NII) Likely to Rise: The quarter witnessed a moderate improvement in the lending scenario primarily in commercial and Industrial, and consumer front. Thus, loan growth, combined with support from expanding margins on the back of rising interest rates, are likely to boost M&T Banks NII. However, flattening yield curve is likely to offset the benefit to some extent. Muted Fee Income Growth: Since performance of the equity markets was not very impressive during the fourth quarter, M&T Bank is unlikely to receive much support from related fees. Also, debt origination fees will likely remain low due to rising rates curbing involvement in these activities. Furthermore, with the rising interest-rate environment, no major help is expected from the mortgage banking segment. As refinancing activities slowed down during the quarter, mortgage banking revenues are not expected to witness much improvement. Expenses to Trend Higher: Expenses are projected to trend higher in the quarter due to the companys continued investments in several areas, including operational infrastructure and technology. Finally, lets have a look at what our quantitative model predicts: According to our quantitative model, chances of M&T Bank beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the fourth quarter are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better to increase the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before theyre reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for M&T Bank is +0.80%. Zacks Rank: M&T Bank currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. Other Stocks to Consider Here are some other stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around. U.S. Bancorp USB is slated to release results on Jan 16. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.26% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of todays Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. | https://news.yahoo.com/earnings-beat-cards-m-t-214909607.html |
Will the Rally in Homebuilder ETFs Continue? | U.S. homebuilder ETFs struggled for the most part of 2018 with rising rates and escalating housing prices. Also, the land and labor shortages, resulting in tighter inventories, added to the concerns. Lately, the trend has reversed. The most-popular homebuilder ETF, iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ITB, has returned 8.3% over the past four weeks and 10.5% in the year-to-date frame (as of Jan 10) (see: all the Industrials ETFs here). U.S. 30-year mortgage rates have dipped over the past two months as Fed officials have signaled that the central bank is likely to slow down or even halt rate hikes, given the signs of tightening financial conditions. For the week ended Jan 4, mortgage rates averaged 4.74% marking their lowest level since April 2018. These helped applications for home mortgages jump at a more than three years pace(for the week ended Jan 4) (read: Dovish Fed Minutes Should Boost These ETFs). The fall in mortgage rates also led to a surge in refinance activity, particularly for borrowers of larger loan size. The average loan size on refinance applications rose to the highest in the survey ($339,800) conducted by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The spike in refinance activity also pushed the refinance index to its highest level since July 2018. However, the housing markets still have plenty of issues to cope with. Government Shutdown U.S. government shutdown which began on Dec 21, 2018 has affected the real estate industry. Per a survey conducted by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on the government deadlock, 11% of the respondents have reported an impact on current clients and the same percentage of respondents have reported a possible impact on potential clients (read: Second-Longest Shutdown Puts These ETFs in Focus). The report has suggested that some government employees are pulling out of purchase offers, while some are being denied loans due to the absence of wages. Also, some non-government employees are having second thoughts regarding purchases, given the overall concerns and uncertainty in the economy. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of NAR also didnt seem pleased with the current government shutdown and reportedly said that the housing markets were already in a fragile state before the government closure. This was also reflected in the upward movement of mortgage rates, which were at their highest level since Dec 31(as of Jan 9). Other Signs of Slowdown In December 2018, Fannie Maes home purchase sentiment index fell to its lowest level in two years. Four out of 10 Americans said that its a bad time to buy a home, the highest on record since June 2010. Also, per a separate data released last month, builders also have a bleak outlook on the housing sector. In December 2018, National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped to the lowest level since 2015. ETFs in Focus Though the recent dovish stance adopted by Fed officials and improved wage growth are tailwinds for the housing sector, government shutdown and escalating home prices will affect the sentiment of buyers. So, homebuilder ETFs are likely to have a volatile ride in the coming weeks. Below we highlight them in detail: ITB This fund tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index comprising companies building residential homes, including manufacturers of mobile and prefabricated homes. There are a total of 48 holdings in the basket, with D.R. Horton Inc DHI occupying the top weight of 13.6%. The funds AUM is $972.2 million and expense ratio is 0.43%. It currently has a Zacks ETF Rank #4 (Sell) with a High risk outlook (read: Housing Market Facing Strong Headwinds: ETFs in Focus). SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF XHB This fund tracks the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index targeting industries like building products, home furnishings, home improvement retail, home furnishing retail and household appliances. It is an equal-weighted fund. It comprises 35 holdings and Lennar Corporation Class A LEN occupies the top position with 4.8% weight. The funds AUM is $651.9 million and expense ratio is 0.35%. It has returned 8.7% in the year-to-date time frame and 5.9% over the past four weeks (as of Jan 10). The fund carries a Zacks ETF Rank #4 with a High risk outlook. | https://news.yahoo.com/rally-homebuilder-etfs-continue-215409398.html |
What does Mizzou basketball have to address against Alabama? | As the calendar crossed into 2019, things appeared to be looking up for Missouri basketball. The Tigers were riding a six-game winning streak and seemed to have found a way to win despite losing star player Jontay Porter before the season. What a difference two games make. The Tigers head into Wednesdays game against Alabama looking to grasp momentum as the teams two-game slide has put all talk of a potential postseason tournament berth on hold. Missouri tips off against the Crimson Tide at 8 p.m. in Mizzou Arena and the game will air on the SEC Network. Here are the biggest issues hurting Missouri during SEC play: Digital Access For Only $0.99 For the most comprehensive local coverage, subscribe today. Jeremiah Tilmon Tilmons last three games have been dreadful. Hes played a combined 34 minutes with just 11 points, three rebounds, nine turnovers and 15 fouls. Missouri isnt going to win as long as that trend continues. Nationally, Tilmon is tied for eighth in personal fouls per game with 3.71, which is slightly up from his average as a freshman. You can make the case his foul problems have become worse. Not all of this is Tilmons fault. Missouri wasnt expecting him to be the focal point of the offense and once Porter went down, it left MU without much depth. Tilmon is Missouris best post defender and can be a huge part of its rebounding. Cuonzo Martin has to figure out a way to keep him on the floor. Turnovers Maybe the most synonymous word when talking about Missouris losses in the Martin era, the Tigers have had 35 in the past two games. Usually when Missouri stays under 15 turnovers for a game, the Tigers are able to keep it close and win. But once the number starts heading toward 20, MU is in trouble. Martin said on Mondays SEC teleconference that some of the ways MU turns the ball over has shocked him because he has dedicated a lot of practice time to turnovers since November. Martin has said part of the issue is all the newcomers Missouri is working into its lineup and the growing pains of a young team, but this isnt exactly a new issue. Scoring droughts In almost all of Missouris games against high-major competition, the Tigers havent gone into halftime without a three- to four-minute scoring drought in the final 10 minutes. According to KenPom.com, Missouri is averaging just 15.1 points in the final 10 minutes of the first half in games against high-major competition. Thats not going to get in done in the SEC. In Missouris overtime win against Central Florida, the Tigers scored just six points in the final 10 minutes of the first half. Last Tuesday against Tennessee, MU scored just 12. This is another issue that Porters absence presents. The Tigers have no go-to scorer. It was the same issue Missouri had last season without Michael Porter Jr., where the Tigers had to rely on Jordan Barnett or Kassius Robertson to bail them out. Jordan Geist and Mark Smith have been pleasant surprises, but theyve struggled during those scoring droughts and Tilmon hasnt been on the floor for a lot of them because of his foul issues. Of Missouris problems, this appears to be the hardest to address. | https://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/sec/university-of-missouri/article224577730.html |
Did Saudi teen Rahaf Mohammed jump the queue with her speedy resettlement to Canada? | Not according to Canadian immigration officials and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Saudi teen Rahaf Mohammed was granted refuge in Canada after fleeing from her family she claimed were abusive. ( Andrew Francis Wallace / Toronto Star ) While Rahafs plea for help on social media got her international headlines and drew the attention of the UNHCR to her plight, the emergency rescue effort was by no means unique though the warm embrace by a foreign minister at the airport may be. According to immigration officials, some 200 people are processed under Canadas Urgent Protection Program each year, with about 50 resettled within the rapid timelines seen in Rahafs case. The 18-year-old arrived in Toronto Saturday accompanied by Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland after a tumultuous week that began with Rahaf escaping from her family during a trip to Kuwait. Rahaf then flew to Bangkok, where she was detained by Thai authorities who prepared to deport her to Saudi Arabia, where she feared for her life. Canada has the flexibility to respond quickly to individual emergency situations for a small number of refugees, said immigration department spokesperson Beatrice Fenelon. These individuals are resettled on an expedited basis due to their particular circumstances. Article Continued Below I know that there are unlucky women who disappeared after trying to escape or who could not do anything to change their reality, she told reporters. People in need of protection cannot apply directly to the special Canadian program and requests must be made by referral organizations, such as the UNHCR. Article Continued Below Since Rahafs speedy resettlement to Canada less than a week after she started a Twitter campaign while barricaded inside her hotel room she has faced backlash not only from internet trolls criticizing her as a disgrace to her family and Islam but also from refugee supporters accusing her of being a queue jumper. A Syrian refugee from a war zone who lost everything is not welcome in the west. But a person from a golden palace in Saudi-Arabia who says I am not a Muslim anymore is a hero and very welcome. Can someone explain this to me? Arnoud van Doorn, a member of The Hague City Council in the Netherlands, asked on Twitter. In Rahafs case, the UNHCR dispatched a team to her hotel room in Bangkok for an emergency resettlement assessment after learning from media reports that the teenager was going to be handed over to her family, who were en route to Thailand and planned to take her back to Saudi Arabia. Among the 25.4 million refugees worldwide, less than 1 per cent end up being resettled, many of them after years in limbo. Emergency resettlement is extremely rare, noted Jean-Nicolas Beuze, the UNHCR representative to Canada. Based on agreed-upon criteria, we refer these cases to the 30 countries that offer resettlement programs. There are many situations. It could be for the lack of medical care or the fear of torture if someone is returned to the country of origin. At her hotel in Bangkok, Rahaf was given a formal interview where she was asked to provide the details and evidence to substantiate her claims of mental and physical abuse by her family. After she got her UNHCR refugee designation, she underwent a thorough security and criminal check, as well as a medical exam, before being admitted to Canada. Rahaf met those criteria and we referred her case to several countries. Canada was the fastest to respond. Rahaf cant choose her destination. She didnt jump any queue. Its a different process with different criteria, said Beuze. Its not a unique case, but its only unique because of all the media and social media attention. While some critics fear Rahafs case may set a precedent and open the floodgates for other Middle Eastern women to claim gender oppression, experts say resettlement is only available to those who make it outside their country of origin. The assumption is your country can protect you. You become a refugee because you dont get the protection and other countries need to step in, said Janet Dench of the Canadian Council for Refugees. Due to the notion of sovereignty, you cant be a refugee in your own country. While praising Canadas quick response to Rahafs situation, Dench said government officials must not politicize the refugee resettlement process by only prioritizing cases of those who have the ears of the Prime Minister or Immigration Minister and are the favourite of the month of the media. According to the UNHCR, 1.4 million refugees have been identified for resettlement in 2019, but only 80,000 spots are available, including 11,000 in Canada. Nicholas Keung is a Toronto-based reporter covering immigration. Follow him on Twitter: @nkeung | https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/01/15/did-saudi-teen-jump-the-queue-with-her-speedy-resettlement-to-canada.html |
Should William Barr recuse himself from the Mueller investigation? | William Barr has accepted President Trump's nomination to replace Jeff Sessions as Attorney General. Barr has decades of experience, previously serving as Attorney General under George H.W. Bush. Last year, Barr sent a memo to the Justice Department, claiming Robert Mueller was acting outside the law in investigating the president for obstruction of justice. Democrats feel the memo shows clear bias and he should recuse himself. Barr says he is not biased and will not recuse himself. PERSPECTIVES In his unsolicited memo, Barr claimed Mueller was acting outside the law in his investigation: Barr wrote that Mueller's apparent theory of obstruction "is premised on a novel and legally insupportable reading of the law. Moreover, in my view, if credited by the department, it would have grave consequences far beyond the immediate confines of this case and would do lasting damage to the presidency and to the administration of law within the executive branch." The Washington Post reports this has given many Democrats pause in confirming Barr, seeing this memo as an indication of bias against Mueller. Attorney general nominee wrote memo criticizing Mueller obstruction probe Republican lawmakers, on the other hand, felt the memo showed an appropriate amount of skepticism regarding the Mueller investigation, not clear-cut bias. Per the Washington Post: "He's got some concerns about turning the firing of a political appointee into an obstruction of justice case, and I share those concerns," [Lindsey] Graham said. "But that's his opinion as a private citizen. As attorney general, his job is to receive Mr. Mueller's report." William Barr's confirmation hearing expected to be a battle over Mueller's future In his opening statement, Barr himself commented on the memo. Barr claims he has nothing but respect for Robert Mueller and will protect the investigation as his job demands. I will follow the Special Counsel regulations scrupulously and in good faith, and on my watch, Bob will be allowed to complete his work. Second, I also believe it is very important that the public and Congress be informed of the results of the Special Counsel's work. For that reason, my goal will be to provide as much transparency as I can consistent with the law. I can assure you that, where judgments are to be made by me, I will make those judgments based solely on the law and will let no personal, political, or other improper interests influence my decision. READ: Attorney General nominee William Barr's prepared testimony Throughout his hearing, though, Barr has refused to agree to recuse himself, even if the Ethics Committee suggests he do so. Barr's insistence on remaining in control of the hearing, even if he is deemed to have a bias against Robert Mueller, has worried some Democrats. BARR: "Because the regulations ... vest that responsibility in the attorney general." Repeats that he won't surrender any responsibilities. -- Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) January 15, 2019 The Tylt is focused on debates and conversations around news, current events and pop culture. We provide our community with the opportunity to share their opinions and vote on topics that matter most to them. We actively engage the community and present meaningful data on the debates and conversations as they progress. The Tylt is a place where your opinion counts, literally. The Tylt is an Advance Local Media, LLC property. Join us on Twitter @TheTylt, on Instagram @TheTylt or on Facebook, we'd love to hear what you have to say. | https://www.nola.com/interact/2019/01/should_william_barr_recuse_him.html |
How Can the G.O.P. Condemn Congressman Steve King but Not Donald Trump? | The New York Times gets action! Its been just five days since the paper published a piece about the race-baiting G.O.P. Why did I sit in classes teaching me about the merits of our history and our civilization? Amid the resultant outcry, Kevin McCarthy, the new House Minority Leader, promised over the weekend that King would be punished for what he had said. On Monday night, McCarthy and the G.O.P. leadership in the House stripped King of his positions on the Agriculture, Judiciary, and Small Business committees. Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader, said that if King didnt understand the meaning of his words then he should find another line of work. Things didn't end there. On Tuesday morning, Liz Cheney, a representative from Wyoming and the highest-ranking woman in the House G.O.P. conference, echoed McConnells statement and explicitly called on King to resign. His language questioning whether or not the notion of white supremacy is offensive is absolutely abhorrent. Its racist, Cheney said. We do not support it or agree with it. On Tuesday afternoon, the full House passed a resolution, 4211 that was intended as a rebuke to King. To begin with, it is worth listening to the sole member of the House who voted against Tuesdays resolution: the Chicago Democrat Bobby Rush. As Rush pointed out before the vote, King has made a career of making racist statements. In 2012, he compared immigrants to dogs, saying that America should take only the pick of the litter, and in 2013 he said that immigrants have calves the size of cantaloupes from hauling marijuana across the desert. More recently, he has fraternized with far-right groups in Europe and expounded the theory that Western civilization, which to him and his followers connotes white civilization, was about to be swamped by hordes of nonwhite immigrants and babiesa theory known on the far-right as the Great Replacement. (In an interview with a far-right party in Austria last year, he expostulated at length on this subject.) In view of these precedents, which were well known in Republican circles, Rush argued that the House resolution, which didnt even mention Kings name, should have been replaced by a formal motion of censure. Lending support to this argument was the fact that King himself was one of the representatives who voted for it. Ive carefully studied every word in this resolution and even though Id add some more that are stronger language, I agree with the language in it, King said. After the vote was taken, Rush remained unimpressed: It is not strong enough, he said. We need to censure Steve King. Another point of note is that Donald Trump, who comments on virtually everything, still hasnt availed us of his opinions on the King controversy. When reporters asked him about it on Monday, Trump said, I havent been following it. I really havent been following it. Thats hard to believe. The original Times article, which was written by Trip Gabriel, demonstrates that, in demonizing immigrants and promoting race-based conspiracy theories, King helped pave the way for the nativist campaign that Trump ran in 2016, the hateful language that Trump used about undocumented migrants, and the sorts of immigration policies that he has enacted since entering the Oval Office. Trump appeared with King during the Presidential campaign and invited him to the Oval Office, where, King told Gabriel, the President boasted to the congressman about how much money he had raised for him. Yes, Mr. President, King replied. But I market-tested your immigration policy for fourteen years, and that ought to be worth something. Perhaps Trump still thinks that he owes King something. Perhaps he doesnt want to sound hypocritical. Just last year, he warned that immigration was changing the culture of Europe. Before that, he hired Steve Bannon, another recent champion of white nationalism, as his campaign manager and senior political adviser at the White House. If Trump were to try and repudiate King and his beliefs at this point, it simply wouldnt be credible, and it might well alienate some of his more rabid supporters. On top of that, Trump may well be sympathetic with Kings current predicament, which is one that he has some familiarity with. In August, 2017, after he said that there were very fine people on both sides of the violence in Charlottesville, he came under enormous pressure to correct himself. Reluctantly, he delivered a public statement in which he called evil and white suprematists repugnant, but he looked mightily uncomfortable doing it. According to Bob Woodward, Trump later told associates that delivering the speech was the biggest fucking mistake Ive made. Trump hasnt made the same mistake again, and hes highly unlikely to do it now. The great irony, of course, is that, unlike King, he can be as offensive as he likes about Latino migrants, black celebrities and politicians, and other minorities, without having to worry about senior Republicans on Capitol Hill supporting motions of repudiation or censure, let alone threatening his job. Just a couple of days ago, he once again referred to Elizabeth Warren as Pocahantas and made a joke about the Wounded Knee massacre, of 1890, when members of the Seventh Cavalry killed hundreds of Sioux Indians, including defenseless mothers and children. (In 1990, a century on, Congress formally apologized to the descendants of the victims but did not grant reparations or declare the site a memorial.) On Tuesday, a reporter asked Mitch McConnell about why he had criticized Kings comments to the Times but had kept silent about the Presidents expressions of racism. Look, its been my practice for the last couple of years not to make sort of random observations of the President tweeting and other stuff, McConnell replied. Congressman King clearly uttered words that are unacceptable in America. That was a double standard, or course. About the only currency that McConnell recognizes is power, and Trump has a lot more of it than King does, including the power to target anyone in the Republican Party who criticizes him. So the Iowa congressman gets sanctioned, and his soul mate in the White House gets a free pass. | https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-can-the-gop-condemn-congressman-steve-king-but-not-donald-trump |
Is athlete doping forgivable? | Seoul secrets, Jan. 14 The article about Ben Johnson being the single athlete disqualified for doping in the 1980s Olympics is meant to evoke sympathy for Johnson and outrage that he was singled out. However, the key fact is that Johnson admitted to using a banned substance. Every cheater should know that they not only run the risk of getting caught and penalized, but also run the risk of being the only one who gets called out. An appeal for empathy for an athlete who got caught enhancing his performance with a forbidden drug is misguided. Energy and press coverage should be spent on bolstering athletes who play by the rules, not one who made an unsuccessful conscious effort to disadvantage others. Miriam Snowbell, Thornhill In early 1989, I was teaching in Toronto when my school welcomed back a top Olympic athlete whom it had been supporting. I asked him about the Ben Johnson situation, and he said what Mary Ormsby states in her article: Many of the athletes, particularly Carl Lewis, were doped up. We hear about athletes being charged with or cleared of doping allegations from long ago. Maybe it is time for one of our more thrilling sporting moments to be restored, and that same moment removed from disgrace. Michael Kaczer, Newmarket | https://www.thestar.com/opinion/letters_to_the_editors/2019/01/15/is-athlete-doping-forgivable.html |
Could Wagyu beef protect against heart disease? | Good news for beef lovers! A new study suggests grass-fed beef could help protect against heart disease. Researchers at the Liggins Institute at Auckland University are looking into whether grass-fed Wagyu beef can protect against the disease. Study lead, David Cameron-Smith told Tim Dower processed red meat has been linked to colon cancer but that's not the case for grass-fed beef. "Processed red meat clearly does carry a degree of risk so there's been all that research looking at colon cancer and processed red meat." Advertisement "But here in New Zealand, we are extremely lucky to have grass-fed beef. In fact, we have the best beef and that's this Wagyu beef and unlike anywhere else in the world, the Wagyu that we eat, or the Wagyu that's available to us in the supermarkets, is a cross with dairy...and it's grass fed, so it makes it completely unique." "It's the champagne of beef when you compare it on an international scale." He said the high-fat quantity in grass-fed beef shouldn't be a concern either because it contains Omega 3. Wagyu cattle. Photo / Michael Cunningham "Here in New Zealand, the only way you can get marbled fatty meat is for that animal to be crossed with a breed like Wagyu [and] the unique thing about that meat is that it's really high in Omega 3." "Grass-fed animals have much higher, double the concentration, of Omega 3 fatty acids and for people who don't eat fish that's their predominant source of those healthy Omega 3 fats." The fat could also be key to protecting against heart disease. "In our research with AgResearch, the government agency that's involved in agricultural research around New Zealand, we have identified other forms of fat that are in that marbled meat that may be beneficial to heart disease," Cameron-Smith said. However, he said that doesn't mean you can start eating steak for every meal. "It's not true that you can eat meat willy-nilly. Of course, the dietary requirements remain the same, you should eat red meat three times a week and supplement it with other forms of protein." "But if are going to eat meat, eat the best, it's the stuff that we export, it's the study that's amazing and we are sop fortunte...that we have this healthy red meat." While processed meat is linked with cancer, he said having bacon once a week shouldn't be of concern. | https://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-country/news/article.cfm?c_id=16&objectid=12191378 |
Will May Survive Her Brexit Defeat? | The only meaningful unity that the United Kingdom has seen in the past two years has been opposition to the Brexit deal Prime Minister Theresa May negotiated with the European Union. That agreement, as predicted, suffered a crushing blow in the House of Commons today, voted down by a 432-to-202 margin in what was instantly the worst parliamentary defeat in history. The defeat, as predicted, has prompted Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to propose a vote, expected to be held on Wednesday, of no confidence in the government. When future historians consider Brexit, they will surely marvel at Mays obstinate capacity for survival in the face of unending political humiliation. Though her authority is all but nil at this point, if she hangs on tomorrow, her leadership will be further cemented. What doesnt kill me makes me stronger, though it still doesnt bring me Brexit . . . Mays final plea before the defeat was that a vote against this deal is a vote for nothing more than uncertainty, division, and the very real risk of no deal, or worse, no Brexit at all. Which is true. Labour is just as split as the Tories on the question of how to proceed. Corbyn now faces enormous pressure from his own back-benchers to back a second referendum, and has shown no sign at any point of having an alternative to Mays deal in mind. That is because there were only ever two alternatives to Mays deal, as the EU saw it: no-deal Brexit (which they deem disastrous) or no Brexit at all (which theyd quite like). For the British people, the choice was simpler still faith in Brexit or no faith in Brexit. Now it seems that Britain faces two distinct but inexorably linked crises: a crisis of government and a crisis of legitimacy. Should both crises collide, it is hard to imagine the havoc that would ensue. Indeed, while it was one thing for Conservative MPs to vote against the prime minister in a Tory-party confidence vote (which May narrowly won), it would be quite another for Conservative MPs to vote with Corbyn in order to bring down a Tory government. Doing so, even as an attempt to prevent a no-deal Brexit, would be political suicide. Yet it is this desperation that Corbyn is banking on. It appears that there is a majority in the Commons set on blocking a no-deal Brexit. That much became clear when the speaker of the House tabled an amendment last week that will force May to return to the Commons within three days of her defeat and present an alternative plan. Of course, that doesnt necessarily translate into opposition to the government. Meanwhile, the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist party, on whom the Conservative government relies for its majority, has already promised to back the government in tomorrows vote. The DUP would be content with no-deal Brexit, as it would mean the end of the proposed arrangement whereby the U.K. would remain in the European customs union indefinitely in order to prevent a hard border with Ireland. Clearly the only way to stop a no-deal Brexit is to put something or someone else in its place. Though the EU has said previously that it will not budge on the terms of the deal negotiated by May, its bluff is about to be called. No-deal Brexit is not in Europes interests, and so the EU may push for a softer Brexit by permitting the extension or revocation of Article 50, which currently mandates that Britain leave the EU on March 29. At any rate, the question of who governs Britain does not resolve any of the uncertainty or division surrounding Brexits implementation. Britons voted to leave the European Union, but two years later none of their representatives in Parliament is any closer to knowing what that would look like. Corbyn argued today that May had reached the end of the line after two years of failure. More from National Review | https://news.yahoo.com/may-survive-her-brexit-defeat-224810031.html |
Will Intel Raise Its Dividend in 2019? | 2018 was a strong year for semiconductor giant Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), even if you wouldn't necessarily know it from its share price. The stock rose just 2% in 2018, but that was enough to outperform in a down year for the market as a whole. Even with the tepid share-price move, Intel had a lot to celebrate from a business perspective during the year, and investors came into 2019 with high hopes for the chipmaker. Dividend investors don't necessarily look to tech stocks as great sources of income, but Intel was among the first tech companies to pay a dividend regularly. After going a long time paying just a token dividend, Intel has embraced dividend growth recently. Although it hasn't been consistent about the timing of its payout increases, Intel's dividend policies have been a key component of the stock's total return. Below, we'll look closely at Intel to see if it's likely to deliver another dividend increase in 2019. Dividend stats on Intel Metric Current Stat Quarterly dividend per share $0.30 Yield 2.5% Streak of dividend increases 4 years Payout ratio 38% Last increase February 2018 Source: Yahoo! Finance. Last increase refers to ex-dividend date. The big boom in Intel's dividend payouts Intel has paid a dividend since the 1990s, but it hasn't always been nearly as big a deal for shareholders as the current payout is. For a long time, the company delivered only minimal increases, and even as recently as the early 2000s, Intel kept its payout stable at $0.02 per share over a span of several years. Even as the tech sector rebounded from tough industry conditions, Intel didn't initially see the need to share its success with shareholders through dividend payments. Yet Intel changed its stance by the mid-2000s. The tech giant doubled its dividend twice in a short span, and it proceeded to make multiple dividend boosts at irregular intervals from 2005 through the early 2010s. INTC Dividend Chart More INTC Dividend data by YCharts. That's not to say that Intel hasn't gone through some tough times. During 2013 and 2014, it chose not to offer a dividend increase as it struggled through the painful process of trying to catch up with its rivals. Having stuck to its guns as the leader in the PC chip sector, Intel largely missed out on using its development expertise to come up with chips for the rapidly growing mobile device market. Rather than making a token payment increase that would have extended a streak of nearly a decade of consecutive annual dividend hikes, Intel let it lapse by keeping its payout flat. Moreover, the size of Intel's dividend increases has varied considerably over the years. The boost in 2018 amounted to 10%, which was double the rate of Intel's 2017 dividend hike. Even though the stock has held on to its increases from late 2017, the yield still comes in above average for the tech sector. | https://news.yahoo.com/intel-raise-dividend-2019-023200396.html |
Can Philadelphia 'stop people from dying' as drug crisis and gun violence rage on? | The prevalence of drug overdoses and homicides is helping drive down life expectancy in the nations sixth largest city as premature deaths have been rising since 2015 Trina Singletons son died a day before his 25th birthday, gunned down on the same day 10 people were shot in Philadelphia. Elise Schillers daughter died of a heroin overdose at the treatment center where she had gone to seek help breaking her addiction. They were victims of two tragedies drug overdoses and homicides now so prevalent in Philadelphia that theyve helped drive down life expectancy in the nations sixth largest city. Premature deaths have been increasing since 2015, according to the report released this month by the Philadelphia Department of Public Health. Life expectancy began to fall after 2014, the city says. For men, it was 72.4 in 2017, down from 73.2 in 2013. Women had a longer life expectancy at 79.7, but that number has stopped improving. The city counts the years of its citizens lives lost to early death, before the age of 75. The number hit a low of 9,004 years in 2014 and then reversed course rising to 9,901 years in 2017. Life expectancy has also fallen across the nation as opioid overdoses claimed more and more lives, but the drug epidemic has hit Philadelphia harder than any other large city. In 2017, there were 1,217 overdose deaths in the city the third highest cause of death, trailing only heart disease and cancer. Its a huge crisis that has really affected the health of the entire city, Health Commissioner Tom Farley told the Guardian. The last time life expectancy dropped like this was during the AIDS epidemic. Elise Schillers daughter Giana became addicted to painkillers she was prescribed for injuries she suffered as an athlete and a veterinary nurse, before turning to heroin. I was so blindsided, said Schiller, 67, of Germantown. I became increasingly confused and disturbed by the way in which they were treating her. Schiller has become an advocate for better treatment, the kind her daughter did not get using medications like methadone and buprenorphine, which research shows are more likely to succeed in combating opioid addiction. Treatment programs also neglected her mental health problems. In her case, it was fatal, Schiller said. Philadelphias crisis is especially bad because it lies at the intersection of two trends, Farley said. The city has long been a hub for the distribution of heroin around the east coast, most of it now mixed with the more deadly synthetic opioid fentanyl. Add to that doctors over-prescribing opioids for pain. One in three Philadelphians report taking a prescription opioid in the last year. Facebook Twitter Pinterest The most notorious public face of Philadelphias overdose crisis is the Kensington neighborhood, where drugs are sold openly, and the city has cleared out encampments of homeless people addicted to heroin. Photograph: Matt Rourke/AP The most notorious public face of Philadelphias overdose crisis is the Kensington neighborhood, where drugs are sold openly, and the city has cleared out encampments of homeless people addicted to heroin. One still remains on Emerald Street entrenched enough that its nickname, Emerald City, pops up as a destination in Google Maps. People live in tents under a bridge, but orange notices warn residents that they must clear out or be cleared out by 31 January. Its an open air drug market. The city let that happen, said Carol Rostucher, who founded the group Angels in Motion to help people living on the street with addictions after seeing her son, who is now in recovery, go through the same experience. Highly-potent fentanyl factored in 84% of deaths in 2017, according to the citys report. Its effects wear off faster than heroin, which leads people to use more of it, which leads to more deaths. Youre using every couple hours so youre not sick, Rostucher said. Every single time, its a gamble. At a town hall meeting in the basement of Kensingtons Mother of Divine Grace Church, Farley told neighbors the city is laser focused on one goal: To keep people from dying. Philadelphia is looking to open a supervised injection site, where people addicted to heroin would inject the drug with medical help immediately on hand to prevent overdoses. But theres no timeline for it to open and the idea faces fierce opposition from the Trump administration. Over the last year and a half, the city has distributed 70,000 doses of naloxone, which can reverse an overdose. Destinie Campanella carries three of those doses with her at all times. Around her neck hangs a locket reminding her of the reason why: Her uncle Christian, who was her best friend, died of a heroin overdose six years ago. I give it out like water, said Campanella, 28. While the crisis may be most visible in Kensington, it is killing people in neighborhoods around the city. Most people who die of overdoses die in their homes. There were 8,065 visits to the emergency room for overdoses in 2017, according to the citys report. Theres no poster child for the opioid epidemic, said Dr Priya Mammen, an emergency room physician at Methodist Hospital-Jefferson Health. Her South Philadelphia hospital deals with the third highest number of overdoses in the city. Many of the overdose victims in South Philadelphia are construction workers or manual laborers. Theyre often reluctant to look for treatment because of the stigma. People who have homes, who have jobs, who have a family are like, Eh, Im not that bad, Mammen said. They feel like they have control over their use Except fentanyl is a game changer. None of us have control. As part of her job at Mental Health Partnerships, Campanella does homeless outreach on the streets of Kensington. On her own time, she does the same in South Philadelphia, where she has lived her whole life. In South Philly, its more hidden. People are using behind closed doors, she said, adding that people are reluctant to take the anti-overdose drug because they cant accept that their loved ones may need it. They live at home. They have jobs. Theyre working. A lot of people might go to the gym, go to the tanning salon, even do steroids to make their appearance look better. While overdoses remain at crisis levels, theres a hint of good news: deaths began to tick down for the first half of 2018. Im hopeful well be able to look back and say this is the year we turned the tide, Farley said. The murder rate, on the other hand, only got worse . Facebook Twitter Pinterest Homicide was the tenth leading cause of death in 2017, with 322 Philadelphians slain, according to the Health Department report. Photograph: Joseph Kaczmarek/AP Homicide was the tenth leading cause of death in 2017, with 322 Philadelphians slain, according to the Health Department report. The murder rate was nearly 10 times higher for black Philadelphians than whites. It helps explain why black men have the lowest life expectancy of any group in the city, at 69.1 years. A black boy is shot and killed, and thats that, said Singleton, whose son Darryl was shot and killed in 2016 near his childhood home. Its always the same story: no motive, no suspects. But Singleton, 47, remembers her son as an outgoing young man who was going to school to be an EMT, loved spending summers with his grandmothers in Georgia and South Carolina, and doted on his youngest brother, who was just five when Darryl was killed. The younger boy made a card that sits on a corner table in Singletons home next to a photo of Darryl: I hope you feel good in heaven. Love you. After Darryls murder, his mother discovered a poem he had written for her but never gave her, expressing appreciation for the way his parents raised him. I just wanted my sons to be better, said Singleton, a real estate agent. Darryl Singletons life is now remembered in an obituary written by the Philadelphia Obituary Project. So are murder victims like Paris Wright, 21, who died before he could meet his newborn daughter, and Dominique Oglesby, 23, a student at Penn State who had overcome a health condition to become a talented singer. Attorney Cletus Lyman started the project, distressed that victims lives were getting lost in the sheer number of murders, most of them by gun. I didnt think people should just become statistics, he said. Many of the murders are never solved. Thats true for Darryl Singleton, whose killer has not been arrested. These young people think they can get away with murder. They know they can get away with murder, Trina Singleton said. Philadelphias mayor has asked for a new plan to tackle gun violence, treating it as a public health problem. Law enforcement is important, but its not alone going to solve this problem, Farley said. Carmen Pagan, 41, became an advocate against gun violence after her brother was caught in the crossfire and shot to death three years ago. I could have chosen to stay in bed and be depressed and just let him be another number, said Pagan, who founded the group Somber (Sisters of Murdered Brothers Emerging and Revolutionizing). I wanted to take a stand. From her home in West Kensington, she sees the gun violence and drug crises collide. Her 13-year-old daughter designed a gun out of bullet casings on a canvas with the words: Our zip codes define our life expectancy. Theres truth to that: theres a gap of more than two decades between the part of the city with the lowest life expectancy, 64, and the highest, 87. Her seven-year-old daughter has already learned to look out for needles in the street. We have to help ourselves because nobodys going to come help us, Pagan said. | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/16/can-philadelphia-stop-people-from-dying-as-drug-crisis-and-gun-violence-rage-on |
Will California Gavin Newsom drug pricing plan save money? | Gov. Gavin Newson wants to deliver lower drug prices by harnessing the full weight of the state against the pharmaceutical industry, but its unclear whether his team can get a better deal without giving up something Californians want. In his first act as governor, Newsom issued an executive order creating the largest single purchaser of prescription drugs in the country. It combines negotiations for some 13 million people in government-administered plans like Medi-Cal and eventually invites other organizations to join. His argument centers on the idea that a bigger organization can extract a better price from pharmaceutical companies. We believe this will significantly reduce costs, he said at a press conference last week, adding that hed ask other governors if they want to participate. Digital Access for only $0.99 For the most comprehensive local coverage, subscribe today. Health policy experts said theres no guarantee the ambitious plan will work. Size has its limits, experts said, and the downside could be Californians losing access to certain drugs. To some extent, scale counts. (But) I am skeptical that just aggregating by itself gives much more bargaining leverage, said James Robinson, who directs the UC Berkeley Center for Health Technology. At the end of the day, what gives bargaining leverage for a purchaser is you say if you dont give me a discount I will not buy your product, he said. That means getting better prices could put politicians in the position of denying certain pricey drugs to beneficiaries, Robinson said. Already a big player Jennifer Kent, director of the California Department of Health Care Services, says federal protections ensure that necessary drugs will be covered. Federal law requires that Medi-Cal cover drugs that a doctor says a patient needs, and that wont change under Newsoms executive order, she said. The state directly oversees the health plans for some 2 million Medi-Cal beneficiaries but the vast majority of Medi-Cal enrollees obtain coverage through insurers like Blue Cross and Blue Shield. Those companies, which provide coverage for thousands of other Californians in the private market, negotiate for themselves. Newsom wants to take that power away from them and give it to the state. The transition, according to the executive order, should be complete by January 2021. The lingering question, said Democratic Assemblyman Joaquin Arambula, is whether California will be able to make out better as one entity than commercial insurers who have more inside knowledge and incentives to get deeper discounts. Its unclear whether or not this will yield significant savings, said Arambula, a Fresno doctor. By harnessing all of those covered lives into one rebate (discount) negotiation, California may be able to extract additional rebates but also will not have the benefit of knowing what rebates are given to other insurance plans. A 2013 report by the California Health Foundation concluded the state already possesses considerable market power. Since 1995 at least 14 states, including Massachusetts, New York and Georgia have tried to coordinate drug purchasing through block negotiations, the report said. The Assembly recently commissioned a study on health care options from a group of University of California researchers. It concluded states have had trouble creating and sustaining such large negotiating agencies. The real flaw here I think is an understanding flaw that just bigger means being able to negotiate more, said Ian Spatz, a senior adviser with the law firm Manatt, Phelps and Phelps and an adjunct professor at the University of Southern California. In the drug world, the better prices have come from your ability to favor one drug over another by using formularies. $1,000 pills Health policy leaders in the California assembly say the current system, where numerous health plans negotiate separately, is the problem. The challenge around drug pricing is that we havent been able to understand why pills cost $1,000 a piece, why treatments are six figures or why there are widely different prices depending on what country youre in, said Democratic Assemblyman David Chiu. Chiu, who twice introduced legislation designed to combine pharmaceutical negotiations, said the result has been myriad agencies that are all purchasing the same drugs but at different prices. Chiu said his bill was largely non-controversial in the legislative process but did not have support from former Gov. Jerry Browns administration. There is potential for significant savings to the state in the hundreds of millions of dollars, potentially, said Democratic Assemblyman Jim Wood, who will chair the Assemblys health committee. The bigger the book of business, the more people are going to want it because if you dont get it you have a problem. The pharmaceutical industry, for its part, is keeping quiet until more specifics emerge. The states drug price transparency law SB 17 was challenged in court by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, although the organization did not prevail. We welcome the opportunity to work with the governor and his administration on comprehensive solutions to the problems patients are facing accessing and affording their medicines, Priscilla VanderVeer, a PhRMA spokesperson, said in an email. Sacramento Bee reporter Sophia Bollag contributed to this report. | https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article224538795.html |
What Happens if Ruth Bader Ginsburg Remains Too Sick to Work? | In the past two months, Ruth Bader Ginsburg has fractured three ribs and had two cancerous nodules removed from her left lung. She was absent from oral argument last week and will miss this weeks arguments as well. Doctors say they expect her to be back on the bench in February, and until then she will review transcripts from her home and participate in the courts decision-making remotely. But her return to work has not quieted critics who say that Ginsburg should have retired long ago and that her health issues are the latest evidence that justices should not be allowed to serve for life. Ginsburg, who is 85, suggested this summer that she intends to serve at least five more years on the court. She is far from the first justice to linger on the bench into advanced age. John Paul Stevens retired at 90 in 2010, making him the oldest serving justice since Oliver Wendell Holmes stepped down from the bench two months shy of his 91st birthday in 1932. Stevens extended tenure produced significantly less hand-wringing than Ginsburgsa contrast partly attributable to Stevens hale health but also possibly driven by the gender bias that Ginsburg has battled throughout her career. Yet while the focus on Ginsburg may be out of proportion, the concerns generated by a graying judiciary cannot be blithely dismissed. Fears of judicial gerontocracy have flared at several earlier points in American history, including long before the court had any female members. Story Continued Below The late Antonin Scalia waved off the idea of limiting the terms of justices as a solution in search of a problem, but the problem is not an imaginary one: Some justices really have clung to their positions long after their mental faculties have left them. Justice Henry Baldwin remained on the court for nearly a dozen years after his 1832 hospitalization for incurable lunacy. One of Justice Nathan Cliffords colleagues described him as a babbling idiot in the final years before his death in 1881. Justice Stephen Field in the mid-1890s and Justice Joseph McKenna in the early to mid-1920s each reportedly spent the end of their tenures in a haze. Mental decrepitude on the Supreme Court has continued into the modern era, as historian David Garrow has documented. Frank Murphy, who served in the 1940s, was likely addicted to illegal drugs by the end of his tenure, and his biographer wrote that on at least one occasion, with Murphy in absentia, his law clerk and two fellow justices jointly decided what Murphys votes should be. Justice Charles Whittaker teetered on the brink of nervous breakdown for much of his five-year stint on the court in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Hugo Black stayed on for more than two years after his wife concluded in 1969 that his mentality has been impaired. Nor was Black the last justice whose mind slipped while he was still on the bench. In 1975, his last year on the court, William O. Douglas was so severely disabled by a stroke that his fellow justices agreed to delay any decision in which Douglas vote could swing the outcome. Justice William Rehnquist developed a dependence on a sedative that caused him to experience hallucinations during withdrawal; at one point in late 1981, he tried to escape from George Washington University Hospital in his pajamas. Rehnquist recovered, but two of his colleaguesLewis Powell and Thurgood Marshallfaced doubts about their mental capacities at the tail end of their careers. The history of cognitive decline on the high court teaches two lessons. First, there is a real risk of a substantial time lag between the onset of mental deterioration and a justices retirement. But second, and as important, this is a risk that can be contained. No justiceno matter how derangedcan do serious doctrinal damage without the acquiescence of at least half his colleagues. And when a justice is so utterly incapacitated that he is unable to break 4-4 ties, the court can continue to function with an even number of active members. Originally, the court had only six justices; during the Civil War, it had 10; and it has functioned fine with eight members during prolonged vacancies. Indeed, there are notable virtues to having an even number of justicesone of them being that it then takes more than a knifes-edge majority to overturn a lower court decision or strike down a law nationwide. The proposed solutions to mental decrepitude on the Supreme Court each come with flaws of their own. A common proposal is to fix the lengths of justices terms, with 18 years being the number most often suggested. Yet 18-year terms would not lay to rest the problem of mental decline. Murphy had been on the court for only eight years when his apparent drug dependence reached its height. Whittaker finally suffered a nervous breakdown less than five years into his term. And the Rehnquist pajama incident occurred just nine years into his 33-year tenure. Granted, the risk of mental disability increases with advanced age, and 18-year term limits might on balance lead to a younger bench. Or they might not. Presidents might be inclined to select older nominees if justices could serve for only 18 years rather than for life. Other ostensible benefits of 18-year terms are also likely to prove illusory. Advocates argue that a fixed term length will lower the stakes of confirmation battles. Perhaps, but fights over open court seats will be fierce whether the appointee wields influence over abortion and the death penalty for 18 years or for longer. What fixed term lengths will do, without a doubt, is to ensure that these fights occur more frequently. If the goal is to defuse some of the tension surrounding Supreme Court confirmations, then creating more vacancies is a curious choice. Assuming that terms are staggered, then the 18-year proposal would also ensure that a seat on the court opens at least every two years. This is sometimes cited as an advantage, as it would narrow the inequity across presidents who have disparate opportunities to influence the court based on the number of vacancies that arise during their terms. For example, William Howard Taft, a one-term president, appointed six justices, while fellow one-termer Jimmy Carter named none. But it would also mean that every two-term president would choose fouror in the event of early retirements or deaths, even moremembers of the court. That possibility is disconcerting given that justices are, empirically, much more likely to vote with the administration when the president who appointed them is still in office. This loyalty effect, which my colleagues Lee Epstein and Eric Posner have documented, limits the courts efficacy as a check on presidential overreach. Staggered 18-year terms would likely lead to a larger number of loyalpliantjustices on the court at any given moment. Fixed term lengths would also raise the question of what term-limited justices will do after their 18 years expire. Some might try to monetize their experience by going into private practice. Others might seek elected office. Consciously or unconsciously, a justice might adjust her decisions with a view toward pleasing potential employers or future voters. While today nothing stops a justice from leaving the bench for practice or politics, very few doat least in the modern eraand the Supreme Court remains one of the few governmental institutions that is immune from the revolving door. Term limits could change that for the worse. Finally, term limits would lead to what in game theory is known as the last period problem. Justices who anticipate that they will interact with each other year after year can expect a concession in one case to be reciprocated later on. But as a term-limited justice approaches the 18-year mark, not only would her incentive to cooperate diminish, but her colleagues incentives to cooperate with her would too. Moreover, this dynamic potentially affects not only the last period of play, but also the period before the last period, and the period before that, and so on, leading to an unraveling of cooperation on the court. One advantage of the status quo is that justices rarely announceand sometimes do not decide ontheir retirements until shortly before they leave the bench. Term limits, by making end dates more predictable, would undermine the incentives for soon-departing justices to behave cooperatively and for their colleagues to cooperate with them. Instead of fixed term lengths, some have suggested a mandatory retirement age for justiceseither 70 or 75. These proposals have many of the same flaws as term limits, though a richer pedigree. Several Democratic lawmakers introduced constitutional amendments to set a mandatory retirement age for justices of 70 or 75 as an alternative to President Franklin D. Roosevelts ill-fated 1937 court-packing plan. In 1954, the Senate voted 58-19 to approve an amendment requiring all justices and federal judges to retire at 75, but the House never took up the proposal. Meanwhile, more than 30 states have adopted mandatory retirement ages for the judges on their highest courtswith most setting the cap at 70 or 75. (Vermont, an outlier, requires retirement at 90.) But like fixed terms, pushing justices off the bench as a birthday present for hitting 70 or 75 would not eliminate the risk of mental deterioration. Frank Murphys disability struck in his late 50s; Charles Whittakers nervous breakdown came in his early 60s; Rehnquists hospitalization for sedative dependence occurred when he was 57. Others will reach the age of 70 or 75 with still many years of work ahead, thus raising the risk that post-judicial career prospects may taint their decisions. An age cutoff at 70 or 75 would not appreciably lower the confirmation stakes either. Neil Gorsuch turns 70 in 2037, Brett Kavanaugh in 2035. Even with an age cap of 70, either justice could one day decide whether a female born in 2019 can get an abortion. Mandatory retirement would, however, raise the same last-period problem as fixed term lengths. It might not produce a more cognitively capable court, but it would likely lead to a less cooperative one. A third proposal targets the problem of disability more directly. In the 1970s, Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia repeatedly introduced legislation that would have allowed a panel of 12 federal judges to force the retirement of a Supreme Court justice or lower court judge if a majority of the panel concluded he was mentally or physically incapacitated. Senator Howell Heflin of Alabama introduced a constitutional amendment with a similar goal in 1989. These proposals sidestep some of the pitfalls of term limits and age caps, such as the last-period problem and the potential that justices would be swayed by post-court career prospects. But they also raise the risk of justices being ousted not because they are incompetent but because they are ideological outliers. For all three proposalsterm limits, age caps and the removal of judges determined to be disabledthere are serious questions as to whether reform requires a constitutional amendment. Article III of the Constitution states that justices and lower court judges shall hold their offices during good behaviour, a phrase whose meaning the Supreme Court has never fully explicated. According to one view, good behaviour means that impeachment is the only way to cut a justices term short. In another view, the constitutional requirement is satisfied if Supreme Court justices are demoted to the lower courts or to auxiliary status once they serve for 18 years or reach age 70 or 75, as long as their salaries are unaffected. But whether reform would require a constitutional change or simply a statutory enactment, the calls to end life tenure for justices should be batted away this time as they have been before. Term limits and age caps would lead to more frequent (but not less bruising) confirmation battles, weaker incentives for the courts members to cooperate, and stronger motivations for political posturing as justices consider the prospect of post-judicial careers. Judicial disability panels, while not raising all the same problems as term limits and age caps, would open up new opportunities for gamesmanship if members sought to force retirements to gain political advantage. The Supreme Court, while not immune from ideological strife, is one of the few remaining institutions in American life in which liberals and conservatives interact collegially and find common ground on a wide range of issues. The proposals to end life tenure would put that at risk. The severity of Ginsburgs current health condition pales in comparison with the ailments that have afflicted many of her predecessors on the benchand unlike them, there is no sign that she has lost any of her intellectual edge. The fact that the court has faced, and survived, the much more serious impairment of several of its members suggests that the problem of judicial disability, while undeniable, is also manageable. In comparison with presidential incapacity, the threat of which prompted the 25th Amendment, the incapacity of Supreme Court justices is both more common and less dangerous. Fixed terms, age caps, and forced retirement are all strong medicine for the problem of judicial disability. In light of the flaws inherent in each, the better course of treatment is none at all. Daniel Hemel is an assistant professor at the University of Chicago Law School. | https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/16/ruth-bader-ginsburg-supreme-court-health-224014 |
What's The Social Impact Of Marketing That Works Too Well? | Its ironic. A huge swath of marketing executives wrote off the whole enterprise as quaint when I started writing about cause marketing nearly 20 years ago. (I know some people HATE the term cause marketing seeing it as shorthand for short-term, opportunistic, promotional initiatives. I, alternatively and expansively, would define cause marketing as efforts by for-profit entities to simultaneously achieve commercial and social impacts. But lets not permit jargon to stand in the way please use whatever phrase you prefer social impact, responsibility, purpose - to describe such work.) Back in the day, most in the business establishment did not embrace the idea that substantial enterprises could successfully combine efforts to build a better world and the bottom line. Numerous waves of consumer research, changing consumer and employee expectations, new views of the role of business in attacking societal ills and many examples of success in the marketplace have dramatically increased the percentage of businesspeople who have embraced the idea that purpose should be considered the fifth P of marketing. Which is why I have been struck by a spate of articles recently voicing concerns about marketing efforts with seemingly good intentions that raise ethical issues. To be fair, its not really the goals of the efforts that are raising concerns, but rather their use of behavior change marketing, artificial intelligence and data analytics. These powerful tools can be used to achieve great things but the danger is that they can also be put to nefarious ends. On New Years Eve, for example, The New York Times ran a fascinating piece on the work of Humu, a start-up using artificial intelligence to identify and socialize among a companys employees behavioral changes that would positively impact workforce happiness. Humu, a start-up founded by 3 former Google employees, says it can help employees be happier by nudging them into better behavior https://t.co/6htt81zGPZ The New York Times (@nytimes) January 1, 2019 A noble goal, no doubt, but not without questions of whether the means justify the ends. Before I go on, let me be clear, I am not an expert on Humu or the other companies discussed below and I am not endorsing or bashing their work. Im just raising questions as these medias have provocatively and appropriately done. Bloomberg Businessweek recently highlighted how the language learning app Duolingo had adopted from online game companies many of the techniques that made games addictive to players. The changes such as hooking people with in-app rewards for using the site everyday have had dramatic effects, according the article. Reportedly next-day retention hit 55 percent due to these practices, up from 13 percent in 2012. The question, Businessweek appropriately asks, is whether successfully addicting people to online language learning is better than getting them hooked on games which the World Health Organization, for one, has denounced as harmful. Finally an opinion piece in Adweek by Contentlys Joe Lazauskas was alternately fascinating and terrifying. It shared some ways neuroscience is being adapted by start-up companies to enable clients to evaluate the effectiveness of their marketing. He described algorithms linked to measures of oxytocin or galvanic skin response (sweat) that are being used to better predict programming popularity than traditional surveys or focus groups in which participants often dont accurately report how they truly feel. Change like this should be scary and exciting, he writes. The ability to quantify the emotional impact content has on consumers and connect that to purchase actions is transformative and leads to deeper investment in great brand stories. As long as those greater insights are used to share stories that have positive social and business impacts, Im all for such progress. However, numerous revelations in the last year of questionable practices managing issues of privacy and deceptive advertising at major technology companies should give us all pause. All of us who take are committed to building sustainable business systems that yield social and financial dividends have our work cut out for us. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhessekiel/2019/01/16/marketing-that-works-too-well/ |
What Stops Women From Mentoring? | While moderating the Q&A of a panel about mentoring as a means to promote women in industries and occupations where they are under-represented, someone asked a great question: Are our expectations of senior women too high? The young woman in the early stages of her career went on to tell us about a time where she sought out guidance from a senior woman and was rebuffed. It caught her off guard. It just wasnt at all what she expected would happen, nor what she thought should happen, and there were plenty of women there who appeared to feel the same way. I've been thinking about the question since I heard it asked. I've been a mentor to plenty of women and men, and I've known lots of senior women who find joy in being allies, advisors, mentors and sponsors. They seek it out. Yet there are also women who dont initiate or accept the responsibility to actively participate in other women's career development. That shouldnt be surprising. Just as not all women think alike, they dont all act alike either. Just look at election results, for example. Women dont vote as a block and they dont act the same way at work. There are many reasons why some women dont offer the developmental support that mentoring provides. Whether they are amenable to it depends on many factors, such as whether or not they are a natural giver and have relational savvy, the bandwidth to take on the work and, not least of all, their understanding of how they see their role as executives. And theres much more to it still. Some who look to senior women for the connection and learning and career benefits that a high-quality give-and-receive relationship offers expect to get support because they share the same gender. But that isnt how all women see it. Some may have minimized the significance of being a woman in a company or an industry where they have until recently been an "only." Many feel scrutinized for being female and may take pride in their hard work having paid off without anyones help. If they are the only woman, a person of a different race or individual with a disability at work, they may downplay their "only" status. That's why they've gone out of their way not to view themselves through a gender lens and instead worked hard to fit in, not stand out. I know of many cases, for example, where women insist on exceptional performance from everyone and drive teams very hard to get it. Women can sometimes hold both sexes to a tougher line because theyve had to hold themselves to an impossibly high standard to garner credibility and respect from others. This may not make sense to you if you havent faced or witnessed discrimination early in your own career. But for those who have, they can find themselves distancing themselves from other women doing what they can to prove they made it in the workplace because of their performance, not because of any special treatment. Having their gender define a good deal of their identity is something they go to great lengths to avoid, not embrace. This is just one of the many ways in which gender bias can generate conflict between multiple generations of women. Women may be more likely than men to put their job before their career. This explains why some senior women show a disinterest in helping high-performing women who show promise. Senior women may neglect the importance of growing their networks and building currencies of exchange with others who are junior. Think too about the impact of those senior women who lacked a mentor themselves. Also, possibly for those who did have mentors or sponsors, its likely it was an older male supporter because there werent many women at the top. They didn't have the experience of a woman's mentoring on the unique challenges faced by women. We need to also look at the greater context of work today to understand why some women don't want to mentor. Women persistently find themselves on an uneven playing field. There are so few women in the C-suite and on boards that scarcity can often place a chill on woman-to-woman dynamics. Without the reliability of equal pay for equal work, and far fewer opportunities to reach senior leadership levels, the workplace dynamic can set women up to compete with one another. At the same time, things are changing in some ways for the better. We cant overlook that there have always been women who support one another. Today, there are far more conversations about how to close the gaps of inequity at work sparked by the #MeToo movement. Women in male-led industries and businesses are organizing events where women with something to say about issues that affect women at work are finally given a platform. Although change is slow to happen, I am hearing more about newly created formal mentoring programs in businesses and professional associations and about informal sponsorship relationships where senior women are opening doors for others behind them to actively support their careers. Women supporting other women is powerful. There are legacy reasons why it isnt consistent across industries. Nevertheless, when women do raise each other up, there's reason to be hopeful. Long may this continue. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbescoachescouncil/2019/01/16/what-stops-women-from-mentoring/ |
What's in the Cards for State Street (STT) in Q4 Earnings? | State Street STT is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and 2018 results on Jan 18, before the market opens. While revenues for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to grow year over year, earnings are likely to witness a decline. In the last reported quarter, the companys earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were hurt by an increase in expenses. However, higher revenues provided some support. Nevertheless, State Street boasts an impressive earnings surprise history. The companys earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 2.8%. State Street Corporation Price and EPS Surprise State Street Corporation Price and EPS Surprise | State Street Corporation Quote Notably, activities of the company during the fourth quarter failed to win analysts confidence. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings of $1.71 for the to-be-reported quarter has moved 4.5% downward over the past seven days. Further, the figure represents a year-over-year decline of 6.6%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales is pegged at $2.98 billion for the fourth quarter, reflecting 4.8% year-over-year growth. Before we take a look at what our quantitative model predicts, lets check the factors that are expected to impact fourth-quarter results. Factors at Play The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets of $182.6 billion for the fourth quarter represents a marginal decline from the prior quarter. Moreover, overall lending activities were not very impressive during the quarter. Nevertheless, driven by modest loan growth, along with benefits of higher interest rates, State Streets net interest income (NII) is likely to either remain stable or witness a modest improvement. Management expects momentum in NII growth to continue in the fourth quarter. In addition, management expects fourth-quarter servicing fee revenues to be flat sequentially on assumptions of continuing industry conditions and stable market levels. Driven by substantial volatility during the quarter, the companys trading revenues are expected to be positively impacted. However, while foreign exchange trading volumes were relatively flat during the quarter, foreign exchange volatility in the emerging markets declined sequentially. Thus, because of lower volatility, foreign exchange trading revenues are likely to decline during the to-be-reported quarter. Further, the spread between the three-month LIBOR and the Fed funds rate contracted during the fourth quarter. Thus, because of narrower spreads, securities lending revenues are likely to decline sequentially. State Streets expenses have remained elevated over the past few years due to rise in compensation and employee benefit costs as well as acquisition and restructuring costs. Owing to the companys continuing restructuring efforts, costs are likely to remain elevated. However, the State Street Beacon expense savings are likely to offset the rise to some extent during the quarter. Notably, management expects total expenses in the fourth quarter to be marginally above the third-quarter level. Here is what our quantitative model predicts: Chances of State Street beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the fourth quarter are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better for increasing the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before theyre reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for State Street is -1.95%. Zacks Rank: State Street currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). Stocks That Warrant a Look Here are a few bank stocks that you may want to consider, as according to our model, these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the to-be-reported quarter. Earnings ESP for M&T Bank MTB is +0.80% and the stock currently has a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is scheduled to release results on Jan 17. BB&T Corporation BBT has an Earnings ESP of +0.53% and it presently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. It is also slated to report quarterly numbers on Jan 17. Huntington Bancshares Incorporated HBAN is set to report earnings on Jan 24. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.32% and it currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of todays Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 27 billion devices in just 3 years, creating a $1.7 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 6 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2020. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research | https://news.yahoo.com/whats-cards-state-street-stt-123812642.html |
What Might Animals Look Like Thousands of Years From Now? | Though Beyond the Sixth Extinction can be enjoyed solely for its dystopian yuks, its elegant paper sculptures tell a deeper story. The book doesnt spend much time blaming humans for the world it imagines, or spell out exactly what has befallen Homo sapiens during the nearly three millennia between 2019 and 4847. But it does hint at a world in which the human footprint has been radically reduced. Chicago transformed into the diminished district of Cago, and life to some extent has moved on without us. All of the creatures in Muridays imaginary field guide have evolved to take advantage ofand to some extent compensate forhuman misrule. Rex Roach, which like its smaller forerunners has a high tolerance for radioactivity, can neutralize the radioactive particles it digests. The clam fungus, whose ancestors lived on trees, now clusters on the surfaces of ancient landfills, where it gleans from methane gas the same elements its bracket fungus ancestors mined from wood. (The clam fungus prudently closes its brackets at sunrise, partly to protect its tender inner flesh from those hungry giant pigeons.) The mudmop sequesters heavy metals, as does the Cagoan dragon. The Peteybugs name derives from PT bug, for polymertrophica synthetics feeder, it eats compact discs. The bloomworm, the naturalized descendant of a genetically engineered chimera that twenty-first-century researchers hoped would fight cancer, takes root in the cracks in buildings and sidewalks, absorbing calcium and aluminum from the cement and causing concrete-based structures to deteriorate at an accelerated rate. Sheehys project was initially inspired by paleoanthropologist Richard Leakeys 1995 book The Sixth Extinction (not to be confused with Elizabeth Kolberts 2014 book of the same name). That was the first time Id ever thought about the Earths five big extinction events, and that the sixth one, which might have the same sort of drama, is our fault, Sheehy says. That had a profound impact on me. Read: How I talk to my daughter about climate change Sheehy, a former elementary-school teacher, is careful not to burden his young readers with real horrors. As in his previous pop-up book Welcome to the Neighborwood, a much cuddlier tale about real-life animal builders, his primary goal is to provoke curiosity about what else is out there that we dont know about yetwhether out there is the backyard or the distant future. The creatures of Beyond the Sixth Extinction, like the scientifically-informed inventions of novelists Paolo Bacigalupi and Jeff VanderMeer, are just familiar enough, and plausible enough, to root in the imagination, and its passing place referencesthe Cagoan District includes the Ohare Site, infamous among twenty-first-century travelersadd to its eerie believability. As a contemplation of adaptability, resilience, and the many possible consequences of the present for the future, Beyond the Sixth Extinction can be an adventure for former teenagers, too. We want to hear what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor or write to [email protected]. | https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/sixth-extinction-pop-up-book/580291/?utm_source=feed |
What is the right way to cook pasta? | To enjoy pasta, even on a diet, its all about how it is cooked and limiting the size of your portion. Dont discard it. The Mediterranean diet is considered the best diet today and it includes pasta. The correct way to cook it is al dente, which means to the tooth, so that there is some firmness to the bite. Al dente pasta is lower on the glycemic index than soft, overcooked pasta if pasta is cooked too long, more starch is released and the body breaks it down into glucose meaning al dente pasta doesnt spike blood sugar as rapidly. Pasta and sauce should be made separately. I have tried recipes for one-pan pasta and I assure you that using two pans gives you a much better result. And it takes the same amount of time. Story continues below advertisement Sauces can made ahead of time, but cooking the pasta is a last-minute event. I was recently in Positano, Italy, and chef Vincenzo Esposito of Li Galli restaurant gave me a pasta cooking lesson. First, in a large pot, bring at least three litres of water to a boil, then add 1 tablespoons of Kosher salt or tablespoons regular salt. When the water returns to a rolling boil, add just enough pasta for each serving: 3 ounces or 80 grams per person is considered the right amount, but some people like more. Once the pasta is in the water, stir occasionally to make sure it doesnt stick. Cook until almost al dente. It will feel undercooked. A visual cue that youve done this right is a little ring of white inside the pasta where you have bitten it. Another clue is the cooking time on the package. Cook for one minute less than the lesser amount of time. Have your sauce simmering beside your pasta pot and, with tongs, take the pasta and toss it in the sauce. Add a cup or so of pasta-cooking water and let the pasta finish cooking in the sauce. (It should be perfectly al dente after a minute or two.) This makes starches, fats and proteins confidently amalgamate together. Toss everything around, sprinkle some olive oil over and add grated cheese, if desired. Serve immediately. Pasta waits for no one. Cook the pasta for about three minutes before tossing with the sauce and baking. It may seem raw, but it will be perfect after baking. Use larger thicker noodles, with ridged edges, so they dont overcook, and the sauce has something to cling to. Avoid long noodles or fine pastas, which will become too soft. Toss in different cooked veggies (this is a good opportunity to use up leftovers), and finish with lots of cheese for the gooey texture. For an Italian brand of pasta available in the supermarket, I like De Cecco, although many other (more expensive) brands are also good. Buy pasta that says Made in Italy, because it is more authentic. The pasta must be made with 100-per-cent durum wheat semolina, which is not always true here. Send your questions to [email protected]. | https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/food-and-wine/article-what-is-the-right-way-to-cook-pasta/ |
Could These China Tech Companies Dominate The Future? | China's technology sector and its continued advances never cease to intrigue. On one hand, the region offers impressive innovation in the emerging tech space of Artificial Intelligence, blockchain and more. On the other, there is the challenge of freedom of expression by individuals across certain tech platforms. Indeed, as many companies from China displayed new advances at the recent, mammoth Consumer Electronics Show(CES), news reports swirled simultaneously about the detention of citizens in China by officials merely for posting on Twitter. Dichotomies abound when it comes to China, and the future is uncertain. But in the midst of CES two China tech companies of particular note emerged in terms of innovation. However, given the current climate, within which is a confluence of economic and cultural elements, navigating a competitive, global future could present a daunting challenge. First, Pacific Future, a company that specializes in the integration of light field, image recognition, motion tracking and other algorithms is busily working to leverage such elements to build the first virtual 3D human. The intent of the company is to offer an individual the ability to clone him or herself both off- and online. The company's founder and CEO Kien Lee says that the advantage of having such an extension will save people time, space and cost. "We believe that people are connecting now over social media via text and simple images," explains Lee, "but soon people will crave something much more interactive with depth. This will be about being able to connect people on entirely new levels. You will want a full representation of yourself on-screen via future devices. Essentially, you will need another you." Previously such a feat was extremely expensive to execute. To create motion tracking needed for 3D imaging of a human body, tech costs started and $20,000 and continued upward. However, Pacific Future utilizes a camera to achieve the same goal that expensive sensors attached to the body offer. Yet the gains made in costs are certainly made up for in work at the company. The task is extremely difficult to execute and is steeped in mathematics via a team of nearly 38 engineers estimating every single joint movement that is possible with the human body. Afterward, artificial intelligence is combined with both the mathematical solution and physics in order to estimate force of movement. It took one year to create the algorithms that now allow a simple webcam that typically offers 2D image to now be translated by algorithm into 3D, and voila, you have a virtual you that moves exactly as you do in real time. "Our company differentiator is that we are not scanning whole body," explains Lee. "It's about the movement only so that the 'best you' is seen, like what we all typically present on social media. We make possible the transfer of human motion from 2D to 3D in a way that works for today's communication style." Pacific Future has left nothing to detail. Even the shadows cast from the image match real-life and use authentic, as opposed to virtual light, in order to offer the most realistic experience. Lee inspiration to create the company came from his love of various films that utilize special effects. He believes that the need for the technology offered by Pacific Futures will be driven by the impending 5G introduction across mobile devices and more. But unlike many startups, the company is already generating revenue. Pacific Futures had to actually build its own hardware devices in order to test the algorithms. The results were so impressive that organizations such as the Malaysian Tourism Board saw them and asked if the company could make such items to offer a companion virtual experience for various museum-goers in the country. Now Pacific Futures has a thriving rental business in this region and others providing historical education on a new which capturing valuable tourist data for the tourism organizations. And given the fact that Lee says that there are five billion tourists in China alone, the company is in a key position for generating even more revenue. If Pacific Futures has its eye firmly set on 3D destiny as a new company, Soguo is working to bring new meaning to Internet usage, search and various related applications to it as an established behemoth. Currently, the company is the fourth largest Chinese Internet company, ranked only behind Tencent, Baidu and Alibaba. The company reports that it is Chinas second largest search engine by mobile queries with over 560 million monthly active users globally. Sogou is also the leading Chinese language input software in the world in that it occupies 99% desktop market share and 70% mobile market share. Indeed, the company says that Sogou Mobile Keyboard has 405 million DAUs (daily average users), up 32% year-over-year. As China's largest voice app, it processes up to 500 million daily voice requests. Under the direction of Xiaochuan Wang, the current CEO of Sogou, the company is becoming one of the most watched of its type in China and beyond, for it is a publicly traded company (NYSE: SOGO) The company was first developed as a mere portal for its parent company-at-the-time, Sohu, as a search engine to compete against Baidu. Wang was brought on as CTO of Sohu in order to launch the endeavor. To do so, he recruited top talent in China, but the company became so large so quickly that Sohu soon spun Sogou out as its own company naming Wang its CEO. Even Alibaba got in on the action for a time when it sought to be part of the search engine game and invested in the company. However, since that time Alibaba has withdrawn its interests and, currently, Tencent and Sohu are Sogou's biggest shareholders, and Sogou shows no signs of slowing down. Part of the reason behind the company's ability to scale at such a rate was that Wang cleverly created both a browser and search engine together simultaneously for Sogou. At the same time Tencent initially integrated their burgeoning search engine into Soguo. In addition, Sogou is also the default for all the public content on WeChat. That means extremely valuable numbers. Yet there are still many hurdles to overcome in surprising ways. "In China," Wang explains through an interpreter, "ads in healthcare are big business, yet they are not reputable. So one of our next main goals is to make authoritative search." Thus the company is applying artificial intelligence to improve accuracy and vetting so that users see ads from only those offering the most reputable care. To ensure success in this area, Sogou is also partnering with such companies as WebMD and the MayoClinic to further vet and categorize. "There are easily at least 40 million searches across Soguo per day about health, " explains Wang. "So getting this right is extremely important to us." In addition, Sogou wants to help not only obtain the information they need but also to use technology to better express themselves. The intent is to use artificial intelligence to advance communication in a number of ways including upping the ante by enabling search via voice and image recognition. "Currently we have over 400 million searches that are answerback via a link. In the near future, voice will answer you back," explains Wang. " For next generation of AI, the objective is to have the technology gather, read, and suggest all in real-time." Yet amidst such developments by both Pacific Future and Sogou, business outlets such as Bloomberg predict a rocky road for such companies based on US-China trade conflict, decline in advertising and more. There is also the question about what part such companies will play in the growing tensions around cultural norms in the country, particularly when it comes to the wishes of the authorities and more vocal citizens. For now, it's full speed ahead in innovation, and many will continue to track the progression closely. | https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurencoleman/2019/01/16/could-these-china-tech-companies-dominate-the-future/ |
Why Is Colton Underwood Always Showering on The Bachelor? | Watch The Bachelor and you'll know two things: Colton Underwood is a virgin and apparently Colton Underwood is very clean. That man takes so many showers! This is a spoiler alert," Colton said on Ben Higgins and Ashley Iaconetti's Almost Famous podcast. "We had a shower B-roll day. It was awesome." Showers for days. Literally! And for those not in "the know" with production lingo, B-roll is supplemental footage shot to be placed and used with the main scenes/footage. Colton also said one of his turn offs include poor hygiene. "I'm a hygiene guy, like brush your teeth, put some deodorant on, shower every once in a while," he said. No, but "just smell decent." | https://www.eonline.com/ap/news/1005662/why-is-colton-underwood-always-showering-on-the-bachelor |
Why Is Colton Underwood Always Showering on The Bachelor ? | Watch The Bachelor and you'll know two things: Colton Underwood is a virgin and apparently Colton Underwood is very clean. That man takes so many showers! This is a spoiler alert," Colton said on Ben Higgins and Ashley Iaconetti's Almost Famous podcast. "We had a shower B-roll day. It was awesome." Showers for days. Literally! And for those not in "the know" with production lingo, B-roll is supplemental footage shot to be placed and used with the main scenes/footage. Colton also said one of his turn offs include poor hygiene. "I'm a hygiene guy, like brush your teeth, put some deodorant on, shower every once in a while," he said. No, but "just smell decent." | https://www.eonline.com/ca/news/1005659/why-is-colton-underwood-always-showering-on-the-bachelor |
Are Investors Undervaluing United Continental (UAL) Right Now? | Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks. While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks, we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies. With this in mind, we are always looking at value, growth, and momentum trends to discover great companies. Of these, perhaps no stock market trend is more popular than value investing, which is a strategy that has proven to be successful in all sorts of market environments. Value investors use a variety of methods, including tried-and-true valuation metrics, to find these stocks. On top of the Zacks Rank, investors can also look at our innovative Style Scores system to find stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will want to focus on the "Value" category. Stocks with high Zacks Ranks and "A" grades for Value will be some of the highest-quality value stocks on the market today. One company value investors might notice is United Continental (UAL). UAL is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), as well as a Value grade of A. The stock is trading with P/E ratio of 7.52 right now. For comparison, its industry sports an average P/E of 8.77. Over the past 52 weeks, UAL's Forward P/E has been as high as 12.18 and as low as 7.52, with a median of 8.86. Investors will also notice that UAL has a PEG ratio of 0.34. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. UAL's PEG compares to its industry's average PEG of 0.73. Over the past 52 weeks, UAL's PEG has been as high as 1.98 and as low as 0.34, with a median of 0.44. Investors should also recognize that UAL has a P/B ratio of 2.30. Investors use the P/B ratio to look at a stock's market value versus its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. This company's current P/B looks solid when compared to its industry's average P/B of 2.45. Over the past 12 months, UAL's P/B has been as high as 2.85 and as low as 2.12, with a median of 2.40. Value investors also love the P/S ratio, which is calculated by simply dividing a stock's price with the company's sales. Some people prefer this metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement. This means it could be a truer performance indicator. UAL has a P/S ratio of 0.54. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 0.7. Finally, we should also recognize that UAL has a P/CF ratio of 4.99. This metric takes into account a company's operating cash flow and can be used to find stocks that are undervalued based on their solid cash outlook. UAL's current P/CF looks attractive when compared to its industry's average P/CF of 5.56. Within the past 12 months, UAL's P/CF has been as high as 6.04 and as low as 4.27, with a median of 5. These are just a handful of the figures considered in United Continental's great Value grade. Still, they help show that the stock is likely being undervalued at the moment. Add this to the strength of its earnings outlook, and we can clearly see that UAL is an impressive value stock right now. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | https://news.yahoo.com/investors-undervaluing-united-continental-ual-141002446.html |
Are Investors Undervaluing American Airlines (AAL) Right Now? | Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks. While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks, we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies. With this in mind, we are always looking at value, growth, and momentum trends to discover great companies. Looking at the history of these trends, perhaps none is more beloved than value investing. This strategy simply looks to identify companies that are being undervalued by the broader market. Value investors use tried-and-true metrics and fundamental analysis to find companies that they believe are undervalued at their current share price levels. On top of the Zacks Rank, investors can also look at our innovative Style Scores system to find stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will want to focus on the "Value" category. Stocks with high Zacks Ranks and "A" grades for Value will be some of the highest-quality value stocks on the market today. One company value investors might notice is American Airlines (AAL). AAL is currently holding a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) and a Value grade of A. The stock is trading with a P/E ratio of 5.50, which compares to its industry's average of 8.77. AAL's Forward P/E has been as high as 11.53 and as low as 5.34, with a median of 7.30, all within the past year. We also note that AAL holds a PEG ratio of 0.72. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. AAL's industry currently sports an average PEG of 0.73. Within the past year, AAL's PEG has been as high as 5.31 and as low as 0.38, with a median of 0.68. Value investors also use the P/S ratio. The P/S ratio is is calculated as price divided by sales. This is a popular metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement, so they are often considered a better performance indicator. AAL has a P/S ratio of 0.33. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 0.7. Finally, investors should note that AAL has a P/CF ratio of 4.80. This figure highlights a company's operating cash flow and can be used to find firms that are undervalued when considering their impressive cash outlook. AAL's P/CF compares to its industry's average P/CF of 5.56. Within the past 12 months, AAL's P/CF has been as high as 7.33 and as low as 4.50, with a median of 5.56. These are only a few of the key metrics included in American Airlines's strong Value grade, but they help show that the stock is likely undervalued right now. When factoring in the strength of its earnings outlook, AAL looks like an impressive value stock at the moment. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research | https://news.yahoo.com/investors-undervaluing-american-airlines-aal-141002563.html |
Are Investors Undervaluing Boot Barn (BOOT) Right Now? | Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks. While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks, we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies. With this in mind, we are always looking at value, growth, and momentum trends to discover great companies. Looking at the history of these trends, perhaps none is more beloved than value investing. This strategy simply looks to identify companies that are being undervalued by the broader market. Value investors use tried-and-true metrics and fundamental analysis to find companies that they believe are undervalued at their current share price levels. On top of the Zacks Rank, investors can also look at our innovative Style Scores system to find stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will want to focus on the "Value" category. Stocks with high Zacks Ranks and "A" grades for Value will be some of the highest-quality value stocks on the market today. One company value investors might notice is Boot Barn (BOOT). BOOT is currently holding a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) and a Value grade of A. Investors should also note that BOOT holds a PEG ratio of 0.69. This popular figure is similar to the widely-used P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also considers a company's expected EPS growth rate. BOOT's PEG compares to its industry's average PEG of 1.08. Within the past year, BOOT's PEG has been as high as 1.68 and as low as 0.49, with a median of 0.95. Investors should also recognize that BOOT has a P/B ratio of 2.65. The P/B is a method of comparing a stock's market value to its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. This company's current P/B looks solid when compared to its industry's average P/B of 3.62. BOOT's P/B has been as high as 3.88 and as low as 1.87, with a median of 2.72, over the past year. These figures are just a handful of the metrics value investors tend to look at, but they help show that Boot Barn is likely being undervalued right now. Considering this, as well as the strength of its earnings outlook, BOOT feels like a great value stock at the moment. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research | https://news.yahoo.com/investors-undervaluing-boot-barn-boot-141002487.html |
Are Investors Undervaluing Sprint (S) Right Now? | Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks. The proven Zacks Rank system focuses on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find winning stocks. Nevertheless, we know that our readers all have their own perspectives, so we are always looking at the latest trends in value, growth, and momentum to find strong picks. Looking at the history of these trends, perhaps none is more beloved than value investing. This strategy simply looks to identify companies that are being undervalued by the broader market. Value investors use a variety of methods, including tried-and-true valuation metrics, to find these stocks. Zacks has developed the innovative Style Scores system to highlight stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will be interested in stocks with great grades in the "Value" category. When paired with a high Zacks Rank, "A" grades in the Value category are among the strongest value stocks on the market today. Sprint (S) is a stock many investors are watching right now. S is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), as well as a Value grade of A. Another valuation metric that we should highlight is S's P/B ratio of 0.88. The P/B ratio pits a stock's market value against its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. S's current P/B looks attractive when compared to its industry's average P/B of 1.49. S's P/B has been as high as 0.98 and as low as 0.73, with a median of 0.83, over the past year. Value investors also use the P/S ratio. The P/S ratio is is calculated as price divided by sales. This is a popular metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement, so they are often considered a better performance indicator. S has a P/S ratio of 0.74. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 1.34. Finally, investors will want to recognize that S has a P/CF ratio of 1.55. This data point considers a firm's operating cash flow and is frequently used to find companies that are undervalued when considering their solid cash outlook. S's current P/CF looks attractive when compared to its industry's average P/CF of 3.84. Within the past 12 months, S's P/CF has been as high as 1.67 and as low as 1.24, with a median of 1.45. These are only a few of the key metrics included in Sprint's strong Value grade, but they help show that the stock is likely undervalued right now. When factoring in the strength of its earnings outlook, S looks like an impressive value stock at the moment. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research | https://news.yahoo.com/investors-undervaluing-sprint-now-141002379.html |
Are Investors Undervaluing Navios Maritime Partners LP (NMM) Right Now? | Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks. The proven Zacks Rank system focuses on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find winning stocks. Nevertheless, we know that our readers all have their own perspectives, so we are always looking at the latest trends in value, growth, and momentum to find strong picks. Looking at the history of these trends, perhaps none is more beloved than value investing. This strategy simply looks to identify companies that are being undervalued by the broader market. Value investors use a variety of methods, including tried-and-true valuation metrics, to find these stocks. Zacks has developed the innovative Style Scores system to highlight stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will be interested in stocks with great grades in the "Value" category. When paired with a high Zacks Rank, "A" grades in the Value category are among the strongest value stocks on the market today. Navios Maritime Partners LP (NMM) is a stock many investors are watching right now. NMM is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), as well as a Value grade of A. Value investors also use the P/S ratio. The P/S ratio is is calculated as price divided by sales. This is a prefered metric because revenue can't really be manipulated, so sales are often a truer performance indicator. NMM has a P/S ratio of 0.81. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 1.14. Finally, investors will want to recognize that NMM has a P/CF ratio of 5.27. This metric focuses on a firm's operating cash flow and is often used to find stocks that are undervalued based on the strength of their cash outlook. NMM's current P/CF looks attractive when compared to its industry's average P/CF of 9.93. Over the past 52 weeks, NMM's P/CF has been as high as 8.47 and as low as 3.45, with a median of 4.78. These are just a handful of the figures considered in Navios Maritime Partners LP's great Value grade. Still, they help show that the stock is likely being undervalued at the moment. Add this to the strength of its earnings outlook, and we can clearly see that NMM is an impressive value stock right now. Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. | https://news.yahoo.com/investors-undervaluing-navios-maritime-partners-141002295.html |
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