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The following is a conversation with Eric Schmidt. |
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He was the CEO of Google for ten years and a chairman for six more, guiding the company |
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through an incredible period of growth and a series of world changing innovations. |
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He is one of the most impactful leaders in the era of the internet and the powerful voice |
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for the promise of technology in our society. |
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It was truly an honor to speak with him as part of the MIT course on artificial general |
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intelligence and the artificial intelligence podcast. |
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And now here's my conversation with Eric Schmidt. |
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What was the first moment when you fell in love with technology? |
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I grew up in the 1960s as a boy where every boy wanted to be an astronaut and part of |
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the space program. |
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So like everyone else of my age, we would go out to the cow pasture behind my house, |
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which was literally a cow pasture, and we would shoot model rockets off. |
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And that I think is the beginning. |
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And of course, generationally, today, it would be video games and all the amazing things |
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that you can do online with computers. |
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There's a transformative, inspiring aspect of science and math that maybe rockets would |
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bring, would instill in individuals. |
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You've mentioned yesterday that eighth grade math is where the journey through Mathematical |
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University diverges from many people. |
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It's this fork in the roadway. |
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There's a professor of math at Berkeley, Edward Franco. |
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I'm not sure if you're familiar with him. |
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I am. |
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He has written this amazing book. |
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I recommend to everybody called Love and Math, two of my favorite words. |
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He says that if painting was taught like math, then students would be asked to paint a fence, |
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which is his analogy of essentially how math is taught, and you never get a chance to discover |
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the beauty of the art of painting or the beauty of the art of math. |
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So how, when, and where did you discover that beauty? |
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I think what happens with people like myself is that your math enabled pretty early, and |
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all of a sudden you discover that you can use that to discover new insights. |
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The great scientists will all tell a story, the men and women who are fantastic today, |
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that somewhere when they were in high school or in college, they discovered that they could |
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discover something themselves, and that sense of building something, of having an impact |
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that you own drives knowledge, acquisition, and learning. |
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In my case, it was programming, and the notion that I could build things that had not existed |
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that I had built, that it had my name on it, and this was before open source, but you could |
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think of it as open source contributions. |
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So today, if I were a 16 or 17 year old boy, I'm sure that I would aspire as a computer |
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scientist to make a contribution like the open source heroes of the world today. |
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That would be what would be driving me, and I'd be trying and learning and making mistakes, |
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and so forth, in the ways that it works. |
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The repository that GitHub represents and that open source libraries represent is an |
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enormous bank of knowledge of all of the people who are doing that, and one of the lessons |
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that I learned at Google was that the world is a very big place, and there's an awful |
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lot of smart people, and an awful lot of them are underutilized. |
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So here's an opportunity, for example, building parts of programs, building new ideas to contribute |
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to the greater of society. |
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So in that moment in the 70s, the inspiring moment where there was nothing, and then you |
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created something through programming, that magical moment. |
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So in 1975, I think you've created a program called Lex, which I especially like because |
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my name is Lex. |
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So thank you. |
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Thank you for creating a brand that established a reputation that's long lasting reliable |
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and has a big impact on the world and still used today. |
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So thank you for that. |
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But more seriously, in that time, in the 70s, as an engineer, personal computers were being |
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born. |
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Do you think you'd be able to predict the 80s, 90s, and the aughts of where computers |
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would go? |
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I'm sure I could not and would not have gotten it right. |
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I was the beneficiary of the great work of many, many people who saw it clearer than I |
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did. |
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With Lex, I worked with a fellow named Michael Lesk, who was my supervisor, and he essentially |
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helped me architect and deliver a system that's still in use today. |
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After that, I worked at Xerox Palo Alto Research Center, where the Alto was invented, and the |
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Alto is the predecessor of the modern personal computer, or Macintosh, and so forth. |
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And the altos were very rare, and I had to drive an hour from Berkeley to go use them, |
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but I made a point of skipping classes and doing whatever it took to have access to this |
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extraordinary achievement. |
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I knew that they were consequential. |
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What I did not understand was scaling. |
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I did not understand what would happen when you had 100 million as opposed to 100. |
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And so since then, and I have learned the benefit of scale, I always look for things |
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which are going to scale to platforms, so mobile phones, Android, all those things. |
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There are many, many people in the world. |
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People really have needs. |
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They really will use these platforms, and you can build big businesses on top of them. |
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So it's interesting. |
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So when you see a piece of technology, now you think, what will this technology look |
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like when it's in the hands of a billion people? |
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That's right. |
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So an example would be that the market is so competitive now that if you can't figure |
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out a way for something to have a million users or a billion users, it probably is not |
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going to be successful because something else will become the general platform, and your |
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idea will become a lost idea or a specialized service with relatively few users. |
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So it's a path to generality. |
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It's a path to general platform use. |
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It's a path to broad applicability. |
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Now, there are plenty of good businesses that are tiny, so luxury goods, for example. |
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But if you want to have an impact at scale, you have to look for things which are of |
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common value, common pricing, common distribution, and solve common problems, the problems that |
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everyone has. |
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And by the way, people have lots of problems, information, medicine, health, education, |
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and so forth. |
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Work on those problems. |
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Like you said, you're a big fan of the middle class because there's so many of them by definition. |
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So any product, any thing that has a huge impact, it improves their lives is a great |
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business decision and it's just good for society. |
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And there's nothing wrong with starting off in the high end as long as you have a plan |
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to get to the middle class. |
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There's nothing wrong with starting with a specialized market in order to learn and to |
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build and to fund things. |
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So you start a luxury market to build a general purpose market. |
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But if you define yourself as only a narrow market, someone else can come along with a |
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general purpose market that can push you to the corner, can restrict the scale of operation, |
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can force you to be a lesser impact than you might be. |
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So it's very important to think in terms of broad businesses and broad impact, even if |
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you start in a little corner somewhere. |
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So as you look to the 70s, but also in the decades to come, and you saw computers, did |
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you see them as tools or was there a little element of another entity? |
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I remember a quote saying AI began with our dream to create the gods. |
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Is there a feeling when you wrote that program that you were creating another entity, giving |
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life to something? |
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I wish I could say otherwise, but I simply found the technology platforms so exciting. |
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That's what I was focused on. |
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I think the majority of the people that I've worked with, and there are a few exceptions, |
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Steve Jobs being an example, really saw this as a great technological play. |
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I think relatively few of the technical people understood the scale of its impact. |
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So I used NCP, which is a predecessor to TCPIP. |
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It just made sense to connect things. |
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We didn't think of it in terms of the internet, and then companies, and then Facebook, and |
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then Twitter, and then politics, and so forth. |
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We never did that build. |
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We didn't have that vision. |
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And I think most people, it's a rare person who can see compounding at scale. |
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Most people can see, if you ask people to predict the future, they'll say, they'll give |
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you an answer of six to nine months or 12 months. |
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Because that's about as far as people can imagine. |
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But there's an old saying, which actually was attributed to a professor at MIT a long |
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time ago, that we overestimate what can be done in one year, and we underestimate what |
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can be done in a decade. |
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And there's a great deal of evidence that these core platforms at hardware and software |
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take a decade. |
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So think about self driving cars. |
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Self driving cars were thought about in the 90s. |
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Over projects around them, the first DARPA Durand Challenge was roughly 2004. |
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So that's roughly 15 years ago. |
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And today we have self driving cars operating in a city in Arizona, right, so 15 years. |
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And we still have a ways to go before they're more generally available. |
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So you've spoken about the importance. |
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You just talked about predicting into the future. |
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You've spoken about the importance of thinking five years ahead and having a plan for those |
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five years. |
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And the way to say it is that almost everybody has a one year plan. |
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Almost no one has a proper five year plan. |
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And the key thing to having a five year plan is having a model for what's going to happen |
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under the underlying platforms. |
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So here's an example. |
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Computer Moore's Law, as we know it, the thing that powered improvements in CPUs has largely |
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halted in its traditional shrinking mechanism, because the costs have just gotten so high. |
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It's getting harder and harder. |
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But there's plenty of algorithmic improvements and specialized hardware improvements. |
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So you need to understand the nature of those improvements and where they'll go in order |
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to understand how it will change the platform. |
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In the area of network connectivity, what are the gains that are going to be possible |
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in wireless? |
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It looks like there's an enormous expansion of wireless connectivity at many different |
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bands, right? |
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And that we will primarily, historically, I've always thought that we were primarily |
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going to be using fiber, but now it looks like we're going to be using fiber plus very |
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powerful high bandwidth sort of short distance connectivity to bridge the last mile, right? |
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That's an amazing achievement. |
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If you know that, then you're going to build your systems differently. |
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By the way, those networks have different latency properties, right? |
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Because they're more symmetric, the algorithms feel faster for that reason. |
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And so when you think about whether it's a fiber or just technologies in general. |
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So there's this barber, wooden poem or quote that I really like. |
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It's from the champions of the impossible rather than the slaves of the possible that |
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evolution draws its creative force. |
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So in predicting the next five years, I'd like to talk about the impossible and the |
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possible. |
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Well, and again, one of the great things about humanity is that we produce dreamers, right? |
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We literally have people who have a vision and a dream. |
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They are, if you will, disagreeable in the sense that they disagree with the, they disagree |
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with what the sort of zeitgeist is. |
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They say there is another way. |
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They have a belief. |
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They have a vision. |
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If you look at science, science is always marked by such people who, who went against |
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some conventional wisdom, collected the knowledge at the time and assembled it in a way that |
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produced a powerful platform. |
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And you've been amazingly honest about in an inspiring way about things you've been wrong |
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about predicting and you've obviously been right about a lot of things. |
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But in this kind of tension, how do you balance as a company in predicting the next five years, |
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the impossible, planning for the impossible. |
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So listening to those crazy dreamers, letting them do, letting them run away and make the |
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impossible real, make it happen and slow, you know, that's how programmers often think |
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and slowing things down and saying, well, this is the rational, this is the possible, |
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the pragmatic, the, the dreamer versus the pragmatist. |
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So it's helpful to have a model which encourages a predictable revenue stream as well as the |
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ability to do new things. |
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12:58.720 --> 13:03.120 |
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So in Google's case, we're big enough and well enough managed and so forth that we have |
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a pretty good sense of what our revenue will be for the next year or two, at least for |
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a while. |
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13:07.960 --> 13:13.720 |
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And so we have enough cash generation that we can make bets. |
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And indeed, Google has become alphabet so the corporation is organized around these |
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bets. |
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13:19.760 --> 13:25.560 |
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And these bets are in areas of fundamental importance to, to the world, whether it's |
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digital intelligence, medical technology, self driving cars, connectivity through balloons, |
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on and on and on. |
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And there's more coming and more coming. |
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So one way you could express this is that the current business is successful enough |
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that we have the luxury of making bets. |
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13:44.720 --> 13:48.960 |
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And another one that you could say is that we have the, the wisdom of being able to see |
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that a corporate structure needs to be created to enhance the likelihood of the success of |
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those bets. |
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So we essentially turned ourselves into a conglomerate of bets. |
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And then this underlying corporation Google, which is itself innovative. |
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14:04.360 --> 14:08.160 |
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So in order to pull this off, you have to have a bunch of belief systems. |
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14:08.160 --> 14:12.080 |
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And one of them is that you have to have bottoms up and tops down the bottoms up. |
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We call 20% time. |
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And the idea is that people can spend 20% of the time on whatever they want. |
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14:17.040 --> 14:21.960 |
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And the top down is that our founders in particular have a keen eye on technology and they're |
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reviewing things constantly. |
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So an example would be they'll, they'll hear about an idea or I'll hear about something |
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and it sounds interesting. |
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Let's go visit them and then let's begin to assemble the pieces to see if that's possible. |
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And if you do this long enough, you get pretty good at predicting what's likely to work. |
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So that's, that's a beautiful balance that struck. |
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Is this something that applies at all scale? |
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14:44.560 --> 14:53.960 |
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So seems seems to be that the Sergei, again, 15 years ago, came up with a concept that |
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called 10% of the budget should be on things that are unrelated. |
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14:59.040 --> 15:05.040 |
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It was called 70, 20, 10, 70% of our time on core business, 20% on adjacent business |
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and 10% on other. |
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And he proved mathematically, of course, he's a brilliant mathematician, that you needed |
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that 10% right to make the sum of the growth work and it turns out he was right. |
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15:18.800 --> 15:24.320 |
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So getting into the world of artificial intelligence, you've, you've talked quite extensively and |
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effectively to the impact in the near term, the positive impact of artificial intelligence, |
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whether it's machine, especially machine learning in medical applications and education |
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15:38.720 --> 15:44.160 |
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and just making information more accessible, right in the AI community, there is a kind |
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of debate, so there's this shroud of uncertainty as we face this new world with artificial |
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intelligence in it. |
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15:50.800 --> 15:57.560 |
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And there is some people like Elon Musk, you've disagreed on at least on the degree of emphasis |
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he places on the existential threat of AI. |
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So I've spoken with Stuart Russell, Max Tagmark, who share Elon Musk's view, and Yoshio Benjio, |
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Steven Pinker, who do not. |
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And so there's a, there's a, there's a lot of very smart people who are thinking about |
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this stuff, disagreeing, which is really healthy, of course. |
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16:17.280 --> 16:22.800 |
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So what do you think is the healthiest way for the AI community to, and really for the |
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general public to think about AI and the concern of the technology being mismanaged |
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in some, in some kind of way. |
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16:33.000 --> 16:37.560 |
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So the source of education for the general public has been robot killer movies. |
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Right. |
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And Terminator, et cetera, and the one thing I can assure you we're not building are those |
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kinds of solutions. |
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16:46.200 --> 16:51.240 |
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Furthermore, if they were to show up, someone would notice and unplug them, right? |
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16:51.240 --> 16:57.760 |
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So as exciting as those movies are, and they're great movies, where the killer robots to start, |
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we would find a way to stop them, right? |
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17:00.520 --> 17:04.320 |
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So I'm not concerned about that. |
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17:04.320 --> 17:08.680 |
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And much of this has to do with the timeframe of conversation. |
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17:08.680 --> 17:16.120 |
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So you can imagine a situation a hundred years from now, when the human brain is fully understood, |
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and the next generation and next generation of brilliant MIT scientists have figured |
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all this out, we're going to have a large number of ethics questions, right, around science |
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17:25.960 --> 17:29.760 |
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and thinking and robots and computers and so forth and so on. |
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17:29.760 --> 17:32.360 |
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So it depends on the question of the timeframe. |
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17:32.360 --> 17:37.280 |
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In the next five to 10 years, we're not facing those questions. |
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17:37.280 --> 17:42.000 |
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What we're facing in the next five to 10 years is how do we spread this disruptive technology |
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as broadly as possible to gain the maximum benefit of it? |
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17:46.520 --> 17:51.880 |
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The primary benefit should be in healthcare and in education, healthcare because it's |
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17:51.880 --> 17:52.880 |
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obvious. |
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17:52.880 --> 17:55.840 |
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We're all the same, even though we somehow believe we're not. |
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17:55.840 --> 18:00.400 |
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As a medical matter, the fact that we have big data about our health will save lives, |
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18:00.400 --> 18:05.520 |
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allow us to deal with skin cancer and other cancers, ophthalmological problems. |
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18:05.520 --> 18:10.080 |
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There's people working on psychological diseases and so forth using these techniques. |
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18:10.080 --> 18:11.680 |
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I go on and on. |
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18:11.680 --> 18:15.840 |
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The promise of AI in medicine is extraordinary. |
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18:15.840 --> 18:20.360 |
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There are many, many companies and startups and funds and solutions and we will all live |
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18:20.360 --> 18:22.120 |
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much better for that. |
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18:22.120 --> 18:25.680 |
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The same argument in education. |
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18:25.680 --> 18:31.760 |
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Can you imagine that for each generation of child and even adult, you have a tutor educator |
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18:31.760 --> 18:37.320 |
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that's AI based, that's not a human but is properly trained, that helps you get smarter, |
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18:37.320 --> 18:41.440 |
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helps you address your language difficulties or your math difficulties or what have you. |
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18:41.440 --> 18:43.400 |
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Why don't we focus on those two? |
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18:43.400 --> 18:49.240 |
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The gains societally of making humans smarter and healthier are enormous. |
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18:49.240 --> 18:54.000 |
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Those translate for decades and decades and will all benefit from them. |
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18:54.000 --> 18:58.560 |
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There are people who are working on AI safety, which is the issue that you're describing. |
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18:58.560 --> 19:02.920 |
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There are conversations in the community that should there be such problems, what should |
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19:02.920 --> 19:04.360 |
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the rules be like? |
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19:04.360 --> 19:09.360 |
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Google, for example, has announced its policies with respect to AI safety, which I certainly |
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19:09.360 --> 19:14.320 |
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support and I think most everybody would support and they make sense. |
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19:14.320 --> 19:19.760 |
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It helps guide the research but the killer robots are not arriving this year and they're |
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19:19.760 --> 19:23.840 |
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not even being built. |
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19:23.840 --> 19:31.040 |
|
On that line of thinking, you said the timescale, in this topic or other topics, have you found |
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19:31.040 --> 19:37.920 |
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a useful, on the business side or the intellectual side, to think beyond 5, 10 years, to think |
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19:37.920 --> 19:39.480 |
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50 years out? |
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19:39.480 --> 19:42.000 |
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Has it ever been useful or productive? |
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19:42.000 --> 19:49.040 |
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In our industry, there are essentially no examples of 50 year predictions that have been correct. |
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19:49.040 --> 19:54.320 |
|
Let's review AI, which was largely invented here at MIT and a couple of other universities |
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19:54.320 --> 19:57.840 |
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in 1956, 1957, 1958. |
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19:57.840 --> 20:01.800 |
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The original claims were a decade or two. |
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20:01.800 --> 20:08.040 |
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When I was a PhD student, I studied AI a bit and it entered during my looking at it a period |
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20:08.040 --> 20:13.880 |
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which is known as AI winter, which went on for about 30 years, which is a whole generation |
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20:13.880 --> 20:18.800 |
|
of scientists and a whole group of people who didn't make a lot of progress because the |
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20:18.800 --> 20:22.160 |
|
algorithms had not improved and the computers had not improved. |
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20:22.160 --> 20:26.160 |
|
It took some brilliant mathematicians, starting with a fellow named Jeff Hinton at Toronto |
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20:26.160 --> 20:33.120 |
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in Montreal, who basically invented this deep learning model which empowers us today. |
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20:33.120 --> 20:40.400 |
|
The seminal work there was 20 years ago and in the last 10 years, it's become popularized. |
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20:40.400 --> 20:43.520 |
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Think about the time frames for that level of discovery. |
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20:43.520 --> 20:46.080 |
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It's very hard to predict. |
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20:46.080 --> 20:50.240 |
|
Many people think that we'll be flying around in the equivalent of flying cars. |
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20:50.240 --> 20:51.240 |
|
Who knows? |
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20:51.240 --> 20:56.680 |
|
My own view, if I want to go out on a limb, is to say that we know a couple of things |
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20:56.680 --> 20:58.000 |
|
about 50 years from now. |
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20:58.000 --> 21:00.480 |
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We know that there'll be more people alive. |
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21:00.480 --> 21:04.000 |
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We know that we'll have to have platforms that are more sustainable because the earth |
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21:04.000 --> 21:09.440 |
|
is limited in the ways we all know and that the kind of platforms that are going to get |
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21:09.440 --> 21:13.000 |
|
billed will be consistent with the principles that I've described. |
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21:13.000 --> 21:17.560 |
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They will be much more empowering of individuals, they'll be much more sensitive to the ecology |
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21:17.560 --> 21:20.440 |
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because they have to be, they just have to be. |
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21:20.440 --> 21:24.160 |
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I also think that humans are going to be a great deal smarter and I think they're going |
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21:24.160 --> 21:28.320 |
|
to be a lot smarter because of the tools that I've discussed with you and of course people |
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21:28.320 --> 21:29.320 |
|
will live longer. |
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21:29.320 --> 21:32.080 |
|
Life extension is continuing apace. |
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21:32.080 --> 21:36.840 |
|
A baby born today has a reasonable chance of living to 100, which is pretty exciting. |
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21:36.840 --> 21:40.760 |
|
It's well past the 21st century, so we better take care of them. |
|
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21:40.760 --> 21:46.160 |
|
You mentioned interesting statistic on some very large percentage, 60, 70% of people may |
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21:46.160 --> 21:48.360 |
|
live in cities. |
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21:48.360 --> 21:53.880 |
|
Today more than half the world lives in cities and one of the great stories of humanity in |
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21:53.880 --> 21:57.560 |
|
the last 20 years has been the rural to urban migration. |
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21:57.560 --> 22:02.720 |
|
This has occurred in the United States, it's occurred in Europe, it's occurring in Asia |
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22:02.720 --> 22:04.760 |
|
and it's occurring in Africa. |
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22:04.760 --> 22:09.280 |
|
When people move to cities, the cities get more crowded, but believe it or not their health |
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22:09.280 --> 22:15.560 |
|
gets better, their productivity gets better, their IQ and educational capabilities improve, |
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22:15.560 --> 22:19.840 |
|
so it's good news that people are moving to cities, but we have to make them livable |
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22:19.840 --> 22:22.800 |
|
and safe. |
|
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22:22.800 --> 22:28.240 |
|
So you, first of all, you are, but you've also worked with some of the greatest leaders |
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22:28.240 --> 22:30.180 |
|
in the history of tech. |
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22:30.180 --> 22:37.080 |
|
What insights do you draw from the difference in leadership styles of yourself, Steve Jobs, |
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22:37.080 --> 22:45.320 |
|
Elon Musk, Larry Page, now the new CEO, Sandra Pichai and others from the, I would say, calm |
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22:45.320 --> 22:49.600 |
|
sages to the mad geniuses? |
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22:49.600 --> 22:53.880 |
|
One of the things that I learned as a young executive is that there's no single formula |
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22:53.880 --> 22:56.200 |
|
for leadership. |
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22:56.200 --> 23:00.080 |
|
They try to teach one, but that's not how it really works. |
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23:00.080 --> 23:04.360 |
|
There are people who just understand what they need to do and they need to do it quickly. |
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23:04.360 --> 23:06.800 |
|
Those people are often entrepreneurs. |
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23:06.800 --> 23:09.080 |
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They just know and they move fast. |
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23:09.080 --> 23:13.400 |
|
There are other people who are systems thinkers and planners, that's more who I am, somewhat |
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23:13.400 --> 23:18.760 |
|
more conservative, more thorough in execution, a little bit more risk averse. |
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23:18.760 --> 23:24.120 |
|
There's also people who are sort of slightly insane, right, in the sense that they are |
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23:24.120 --> 23:29.040 |
|
emphatic and charismatic and they feel it and they drive it and so forth. |
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23:29.040 --> 23:31.440 |
|
There's no single formula to success. |
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23:31.440 --> 23:35.320 |
|
There is one thing that unifies all of the people that you named, which is very high |
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23:35.320 --> 23:41.240 |
|
intelligence, at the end of the day, the thing that characterizes all of them is that they |
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23:41.240 --> 23:46.360 |
|
saw the world quicker, faster, they processed information faster, they didn't necessarily |
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23:46.360 --> 23:50.160 |
|
make the right decisions all the time, but they were on top of it. |
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23:50.160 --> 23:54.600 |
|
The other thing that's interesting about all those people is they all started young. |
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23:54.600 --> 23:58.560 |
|
Think about Steve Jobs starting Apple roughly at 18 or 19. |
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23:58.560 --> 24:01.840 |
|
Think about Bill Gates starting at roughly 2021. |
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24:01.840 --> 24:07.040 |
|
Think about by the time they were 30, Mark Zuckerberg, a more good example at 1920. |
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24:07.040 --> 24:13.720 |
|
By the time they were 30, they had 10 years, at 30 years old, they had 10 years of experience |
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24:13.720 --> 24:19.920 |
|
of dealing with people and products and shipments and the press and business and so forth. |
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24:19.920 --> 24:24.480 |
|
It's incredible how much experience they had compared to the rest of us who were busy getting |
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24:24.480 --> 24:25.480 |
|
our PhDs. |
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24:25.480 --> 24:26.480 |
|
Yes, exactly. |
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24:26.480 --> 24:32.760 |
|
We should celebrate these people because they've just had more life experience and that helps |
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24:32.760 --> 24:34.520 |
|
inform the judgment. |
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24:34.520 --> 24:41.360 |
|
At the end of the day, when you're at the top of these organizations, all the easy questions |
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24:41.360 --> 24:43.680 |
|
have been dealt with. |
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24:43.680 --> 24:45.840 |
|
How should we design the buildings? |
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24:45.840 --> 24:48.400 |
|
Where should we put the colors on our product? |
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24:48.400 --> 24:51.440 |
|
What should the box look like? |
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24:51.440 --> 24:55.520 |
|
The problems, that's why it's so interesting to be in these rooms, the problems that they |
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24:55.520 --> 25:00.200 |
|
face in terms of the way they operate, the way they deal with their employees, their |
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25:00.200 --> 25:04.160 |
|
customers, their innovation are profoundly challenging. |
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25:04.160 --> 25:09.360 |
|
Each of the companies is demonstrably different culturally. |
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25:09.360 --> 25:11.800 |
|
They are not, in fact, cut of the same. |
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25:11.800 --> 25:16.680 |
|
They behave differently based on input, their internal cultures are different, their compensation |
|
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25:16.680 --> 25:24.920 |
|
schemes are different, their values are different, so there's proof that diversity works. |
|
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25:24.920 --> 25:33.440 |
|
So when faced with a tough decision, in need of advice, it's been said that the best thing |
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25:33.440 --> 25:39.840 |
|
one can do is to find the best person in the world who can give that advice and find a |
|
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25:39.840 --> 25:44.880 |
|
way to be in a room with them, one on one and ask. |
|
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25:44.880 --> 25:51.920 |
|
So here we are, and let me ask in a long winded way, I wrote this down, in 1998 there were |
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25:51.920 --> 26:01.960 |
|
many good search engines, Lycos, Excite, Altavista, Infoseek, AskJeeves maybe, Yahoo even. |
|
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|
26:01.960 --> 26:07.040 |
|
So Google stepped in and disrupted everything, they disrupted the nature of search, the nature |
|
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26:07.040 --> 26:12.040 |
|
of our access to information, the way we discover new knowledge. |
|
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|
26:12.040 --> 26:19.120 |
|
So now it's 2018, actually 20 years later, there are many good personal AI assistants, |
|
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26:19.120 --> 26:22.360 |
|
including of course the best from Google. |
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26:22.360 --> 26:28.720 |
|
So you've spoken in medical and education, the impact of such an AI assistant could bring. |
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26:28.720 --> 26:34.920 |
|
So we arrive at this question, so it's a personal one for me, but I hope my situation represents |
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that of many other, as we said, dreamers and the crazy engineers. |
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So my whole life, I've dreamed of creating such an AI assistant. |
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Every step I've taken has been towards that goal, now I'm a research scientist in Human |
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Senate AI here at MIT, so the next step for me as I sit here, facing my passion, is to |
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do what Larry and Sergey did in 1998, this simple start up. |
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And so here's my simple question, given the low odds of success, the timing and luck required, |
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the countless other factors that can't be controlled or predicted, which is all the |
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things that Larry and Sergey faced. |
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Is there some calculation, some strategy to follow in this step, or do you simply follow |
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the passion just because there's no other choice? |
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I think the people who are in universities are always trying to study the extraordinarily |
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chaotic nature of innovation and entrepreneurship. |
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My answer is that they didn't have that conversation, they just did it. |
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They sensed a moment when, in the case of Google, there was all of this data that needed |
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to be organized and they had a better algorithm, they had invented a better way. |
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So today with Human Senate AI, which is your area of research, there must be new approaches. |
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It's such a big field, there must be new approaches, different from what we and others are doing. |
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There must be startups to fund, there must be research projects to try, there must be |
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graduate students to work on new approaches. |
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Here at MIT, there are people who are looking at learning from the standpoint of looking |
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at child learning, how do children learn starting at each one? |
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And the work is fantastic. |
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Those approaches are different from the approach that most people are taking. |
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Perhaps that's a bet that you should make, or perhaps there's another one. |
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But at the end of the day, the successful entrepreneurs are not as crazy as they sound. |
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They see an opportunity based on what's happened. |
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Let's use Uber as an example. |
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As Travis sells the story, he and his cofounder were sitting in Paris and they had this idea |
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because they couldn't get a cab. |
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And they said, we have smartphones and the rest is history. |
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So what's the equivalent of that Travis Eiffel Tower, where is a cab moment that you could, |
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as an entrepreneur, take advantage of, whether it's in Human Senate AI or something else? |
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That's the next great start up. |
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And the psychology of that moment. |
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So when Sergey and Larry talk about, and listen to a few interviews, it's very nonchalant. |
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Well, here's the very fascinating web data. |
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And here's an algorithm we have for, you know, we just kind of want to play around with that |
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data. |
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And it seems like that's a really nice way to organize this data. |
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Well, I should say what happened, remember, is that they were graduate students at Stanford |
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and they thought this is interesting, so they built a search engine and they kept it in |
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their room. |
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And they had to get power from the room next door because they were using too much power |
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in the room. |
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So they ran an extension cord over. |
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And then they went and they found a house and they had Google World headquarters of |
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five people to start the company. |
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And they raised $100,000 from Andy Bechtelstein, who was the sun founder to do this, and Dave |
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Chariton and a few others. |
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The point is their beginnings were very simple, but they were based on a powerful insight. |
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That is a replicable model for any startup. |
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It has to be a powerful insight. |
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The beginnings are simple. |
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And there has to be an innovation. |
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In Larry and Sergey's case, it was PageRank, which was a brilliant idea, one of the most |
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cited papers in the world today. |
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What's the next one? |
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So you're one of, if I may say, richest people in the world, and yet it seems that money |
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is simply a side effect of your passions and not an inherent goal. |
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But it's a, you're a fascinating person to ask. |
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So much of our society at the individual level and at the company level and its nations is |
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driven by the desire for wealth. |
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What do you think about this drive? |
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And what have you learned about, if I may romanticize the notion, the meaning of life, |
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having achieved success on so many dimensions? |
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There have been many studies of human happiness and above some threshold, which is typically |
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relatively low for this conversation, there's no difference in happiness about money. |
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The happiness is correlated with meaning and purpose, a sense of family, a sense of impact. |
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So if you organize your life, assuming you have enough to get around and have a nice |
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home and so forth, you'll be far happier if you figure out what you care about and work |
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on that. |
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It's often being in service to others. |
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It's a great deal of evidence that people are happiest when they're serving others |
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and not themselves. |
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This goes directly against the sort of press induced excitement about powerful and wealthy |
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leaders of one kind and indeed, these are consequential people. |
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But if you are in a situation where you've been very fortunate as I have, you also have |
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to take that as a responsibility and you have to basically work both to educate others and |
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give them that opportunity, but also use that wealth to advance human society. |
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In my case, I'm particularly interested in using the tools of artificial intelligence |
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and machine learning to make society better. |
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I've mentioned education. |
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I've mentioned inequality and middle class and things like this, all of which are a passion |
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of mine. |
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It doesn't matter what you do. |
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It matters that you believe in it, that it's important to you and that your life will be |
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far more satisfying if you spend your life doing that. |
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I think there's no better place to end than a discussion of the meaning of life. |
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Eric, thank you so much. |
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Thank you very much. |
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Thank you. |
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