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TEVA | BioDelivery Sciences settles Bunavail patent dispute with Teva | BioDelivery Sciences NASDAQ BDSI settles its patent infringement litigation with Teva Pharmaceutical Industries NYSE TEVA U S unit related to BUNAVAIL buprenorphine and naloxone Teva had filed a marketing application seeking FDA approval for a generic version of the product Under the terms of the settlement BioDelivery grants Teva a non exclusive license to sell a generic equivalent beginning July 23 2028 or earlier under certain circumstances |
TEVA | Teva under pressure down 4 | Beleaguered Teva Pharmaceutical Industries TEVA 4 2 is down on below average volume in a retest of the recent low of 15 22 touched on September 6 Shares are currently exchanging hands at 15 05 a 52 week low No particular news accounts for the action Earlier today the company settled its patent challenge with BioDelivery Sciences related to pain med BUNAVAIL but that should not have moved the needle much Pharmaceuticals and biotechs are down in general PJP 0 9 IHE 0 6 XPH 0 9 IBB 0 7 XBI 0 3 Previously BioDelivery Sciences settles Bunavail patent dispute with Teva Oct 12 Now read |
TEVA | Teva submits U S marketing application for migraine med fremanezumab | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries TEVA files its Biologics License Application BLA with the FDA seeking approval for fremanezumab for the prevention of migraine Fremanezumab administered once per month via subcutaneous injection is a monoclonal antibody that binds to a compound called calcitonin gene related peptide a well validated migraine target The agency will establish an action date after it accepts the application for review Previously Teva out licenses migraine candidate fremanezumab to Otsuka for 50M May 15 Now read |
TEVA | Innovus Pharma s Vesele OK d in Canada shares ahead 7 | Health Canada approves Innovus Pharmaceuticals OTCQB INNV 6 7 Vesele an over the counter natural health product to treat sexual dysfunction The company plans to launch the product directly through its Beyond Human sales and marketing platform and through other sales channels Now read |
XOM | New Jersey lawmakers send post Exxon pollution bill to governor | By Hilary Russ Reuters New Jersey lawmakers sent a bill to Governor Chris Christie on Thursday that calls for more money from environmental settlements to fund cleanups The legislation came after the Christie administration announced a controversial 225 million deal with Exxon Mobil Corp NYSE XOM on March 5 over environmental contamination from two of its former New Jersey refineries Environmentalists consider the sites known as Bayway and Bayonne the most polluted in a state infamous for its industrial contamination Christie a likely Republican contender in the 2016 U S presidential election who faces a budget crunch at home has called the accord a really good deal because the money comes on top of what Exxon would have to pay to clean up the sites His administration has said money from the settlement would not be available until at least fiscal 2016 The state s Democrat led legislature is asking for documents and questioning why the administration would settle a case worth potentially 8 9 billion for so little The judge overseeing the state s 2004 lawsuit against Exxon must still approve the settlement after a public comment period Currently the first 50 million of environmental settlements like the one struck with Exxon is used for restoration Any remaining money can go into the state s general fund The bill that now heads to the governor calls for the use of 50 percent of that remaining money for environmental purposes as well Residents have been terribly shortchanged by this settlement Using these funds as a short term budget fix adds insult to injury said John McKeon one of the bill s sponsors in a statement Christie spokesman Kevin Roberts said the office does not comment on pending legislation However as a budgetary matter this is something we expect will be resolved through budget negotiations he said OLUSPOLITIC Reuters US Online Report Politics News 20150326T201942 0000 |
MRO | Why Is Marathon Oil MRO Stock Rallying Today | On Monday shares of leading exploration and production company Marathon Oil Corp NYSE MRO are rallying up over 10 in afternoon trading after the company announced it had agreed to acquire PayRock Energy for 888 million from EnCap investments a private equity firm
Under the deal Marathon will receive roughly 61 000 net surface acres in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma as well as the current production of 9 000 net barrels of oil equivalent per day AcquiringPayRock s STACK Sooner Trend Anadarko Basin Canadian and Kingfisher Counties position will meaningfully expand the quality and scale of Marathon Oil s existing portfolio in one of the best unconventional oil plays in the U S said Marathon Oil CEO Lee Tillman
Marathon also said that capital spending on the acquired assets would fit within its 1 4 billion capital expenditure budget which the company has previously announced
The deal is expected to close in the upcoming third quarter and is subject to customary closing conditions
Currently Marathon sits at a 3 Hold on the Zacks Rank |
MRO | Marathon Oil Upped To Buy On Positive Estimate Revisions | On Jul 5 Zacks Investment Research upgraded Marathon Oil Corporation NYSE MRO to a Zacks Rank 2 Buy Crude Improvement Means Good News for Marathon OilOver the last 60 days the Zacks Consensus Estimate of Marathon Oil for the third quarter of this year saw an improvement from a loss of 34 cents to a loss of 28 cents Moreover for the year 2016 the company s Zacks Consensus Estimate narrowed to a loss of 1 05 from a loss of 1 25 These estimate revisions have come when oil prices are walking on the bullish path after a length of time In details from the 12 year low mark of 26 05 per barrel in February West Texas Intermediate WTI crude closed at 48 99 per barrel yesterday The commodity also crossed the 50 per barrel mark last month for the first time since Jul 21 2015 We can say that this will lead to improvement on the crude front Crude improvement is definitely good news for Marathon Oil which is a leading upstream energy player In other words oil price has a positive correlation with the business of the upstream players since the companies generate earnings after selling the commodities It is also to be considered that Marathon Oil has a large and geographically diverse reserve base and solid project pipeline The company s recent plan to buy PayRock Energy Holdings is a huge positive as the latter possesses 61 000 net surface acres of land in Oklahoma In fact the company is anticipating handsome returns from the newly drilled wells of the locality even if oil remains at 50 per barrel It is to be noted that the to be purchased resources will raise the company s total ownership to 200 000 acres in the Stack region Moreover Marathon Oil surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters with an average earnings beat of 19 93 MARATHON OIL CP Price and Consensus Other Stocks to ConsiderOther stocks in the energy sector that are worth considering include McDermott International Inc NYSE MDR North Atlantic Drilling Limited NYSE NADL and Denbury Resources Inc NYSE DNR All the stocks sport a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy |
XOM | ETFs For The Unquestioned Wall Of Worry | The crises of yesteryear almost seem quaint Did investors really need to fret the possibility of the world s 44th economy Greece exiting the euro zone back in 2011 The stock market ultimately prevailed Why did the fiscal cliff sequestration and government shutdown concerns cause so much anxiety in 2012 U S stocks eventually powered ahead by roughly 14 that year Discussion in 2013 of the Federal Reserve tapering its bond purchases in 2014 Please Equities not only handled the notion of Fed stimulus ending they knocked doubters on their backsides with two additional years of double digit percentage gains
Indeed Wall Street stocks often climb in the face of negativity pessimism and rational fears That is what bull markets are made of On the other hand when the investing community no longer worries when the overwhelming majority of participants have no expectation of loss dreams of risk free wealth often turn to nightmares
Consider the chart below The Investors Intelligence Survey s percentage of self described bears those who believe the market will drop has declined steadily over the last three years It sits at the lowest level ever And why not U S stocks have rocketed ahead for three consecutive calendar cycles without so much as a 10 pullback If every 4 8 downward movement becomes a buy the dip opportunity if people cannot recall the odious feelings associated with a correction of 10 19 they re more likely to chalk up a bearish decline of 30 plus as an aberration
Trillions in electronic currency creation zero percent rate policy corporate stock buybacks margin debt carry trade activity a quest for yield as well as signs of domestic economic improvement have contributed to the amazing six year performance for U S stocks Of course none of these things occurred independently With the Fed ending its electronic money printing in the U S while hinting at raising overnight lending rates a continuation of the stock uptrend requires fuel from elsewhere Perhaps literally
Unfortunately and yes I do mean unfortunately collapsing oil prices are not a windfall for the U S economy Since 2009 employment in the oil industry has soared by as much as 50 I have seen reports that energy jobs accounted for 40 of the national job growth since 2000 And these are high paying careers that we are talking about as opposed to the low paying nature of retail health service professionals and part time work
The rapid descent in oil prices is a signal of a weakening global economy Either we see the rest of the globe lose its fight against deflation eventually dragging the U S down with it or oil prices revert back to a spot price near 75 per barrel and stabilize the world order I believe the latter is more probable In fact if oil fails to find a base that the world and the U S energy industry can live with I believe the Fed will push off its rate normalization plans into the fall or wintertime More stimulus more easy money that will power stocks in 2015 right
Indeed I am long Exxon Mobil XOM as a dividend aristocrat that will benefit from greater oil price stability And while client portfolios stopped out of a profitable position in UBS MLP Alerian Infrastructure MLPI back in October I may revisit the theme of energy infrastructure in the near future If any sector could benefit from an unquestioned ascent on a wall of worry it could be energy Or in contrast energy could supplant the tech sector circa 2000 2002 and the financial sector circa 2007 2009
A great deal would depend on how Fed policy acts in the face of domestic and global economic deceleration Will it be the dovish Fed that has maintained zero percent interest rates throughout the six year bull market Or will it be a more determined Fed that wants to give itself more breathing room by raising short term rates so that it does not need to sign on for QE4
Regardless investors that have been suckered in by endless promises of rising interest rates need to recognize the unanimous refrain is almost always incorrect Last year s Bloomberg poll of the top 55 economists found that all 55 expect the 10 year yield to rise from 3 0 The average forecast 3 4 Only a few folks like myself pointed to the relative value of U S treasuries compared with lesser quality sovereign debt abroad as well as the global economic slowdown As we all know now the 10 year fell to 2 2 from 3 0
The economists are at it again Nearly all of them say the 10 year yield will go higher with an average forecast of 3 0 by 2015 year end I think the 10 year yield will probably be closer to 2 especially with comparable German bunds below 1 and Japanese government 10 year bonds at 0 31 Just like last year I am quite content to keep utilizing longer duration treasuries in funds like Vanguard Long Term Government Bond NASDAQ VGLT as well as iShares 10 20 Year Treasury NYSE TLH as the yield curve continues to compress Most of my clients have exposure to Vanguard Extend Duration NYSE EDV though I would look for a bit of a shakedown before considering the longest end of the curve
Bottom line Check your bond bearishness and stock bullishness at the door Let the trendlines do the talking for both assets For now the bond wall of worry and the stock wall of worry are not as important as the definitive uptrends for the assets One should let the uptrends in a stock stalwart like iShares USA Minimum Volatility NYSE USMV as well as a bond winner like Vanguard Long Term Government NASDAQ VGLT speak for themselves
Disclosure Gary Gordon MS CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial Inc a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC Gary Gordon Pacific Park Financial Inc and or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs mutual funds and or any investment asset mentioned above The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy sell or hold securities At times issuers of exchange traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial Inc or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships |
TEVA | Teva s Q1 Earnings Could Show CEO Schultz s Turnaround Still On Track | Reports Q1 2019 results on Thursday May 2 before the market open Revenue Expectation 4 38 billion EPS Expectation 0 58
Teva Pharmaceuticals NYSE TEVA turnaround has been a tough sell for its Chief Executive Officer Kare Schultz at least in 2019
The share price of the world s largest manufacturer of generic drugs has tumbled more than 40 from the 52 week high reached in August amid concerns that the worst for the company s growth isn t over yet Its stock was trading at 15 22 a share at yesterday s close after sinking 2 5 through the session
Analysts consensus forecast for profit and sales for the first quarter suggests the investment community still remains doubtful about the company s transition to stability During tomorrow s release Israel based Teva is likely to report its profit fell to 0 58 a share from 0 94 a share from the year ago period while sales to shrank 13 5 to 4 38 billion according to analysts average estimate
Teva is trying to recover from a slump started in the summer of 2015 that sent its shares tumbling as the company invested heavily to grow its copycat medicines business That happened at a time when margins began to shrink in the U S amid fierce competition from other pharma producers The biggest setback came when Teva lost its monopoly on Copaxone a blockbuster multiple sclerosis injection that at one point generated half of Teva s profits
That bearish outlook however will change quickly if Schultz can show that his cost cutting efforts are working and the company has been able to control the decline in sales We feel that outcome is unlikely this year given the company s earlier warnings that growth will not return until next year and that 2019 will continue to be a tough year
Teva Is a Compelling Value Play
But Teva in our view offers a compelling value opportunity if your investing horizon is long term and you re comfortable staying invested for the next few years One big reason making us bullish on this beaten down stock is the CEO s measurable success in trimming Teva s costs and its huge pile of debt
Against a very tough operating environment Schultz managed to cut spending by 2 2 billion last year and will close or sell another 11 manufacturing plants in 2019 which would bring the total figure to about 60 sites
Teva is also on track to meet its overall target of 3 billion in savings by the end of 2019 and may close more plants afterward Schultz said in February As a result of these measures the company s debt has fallen to 29 billion from its 2016 peak of 36 billion
Teva s robust pipeline of new drugs is another bright spot in the company s turnaround plan The recent approval of its next generation migraine medication Ajovy has so far not created much excitement but this drug has a great future and could bring in a significant new revenue stream in the next two to three years
More than 36 million people suffer from these debilitating episodes and the medicine could generate around 500 million in sales by 2022 according to analysts estimates Teva s Huntington s disease medicine Austedo could also prove another big revenue generator which would help the drugmaker arrest the slide in its sales Austedo s peak sales are forecast to reach as high as 1 3 billion within the next three years
Bottom Line
Despite the 2019 setback we continue to see improvement in Teva s financials and investor perception going forward as the company successfully implements its three year turnaround plan and the U S generic drug market shows signs of stability Schultz s belt tightening an impressive pipeline of new drugs and the backing of large investors including Warren Buffett s Berkshire Hathaway Inc NYSE BRKa and Capital Group Companies make Teva a good turnaround stock for long term investors |
TEVA | Teva TEVA Beats On Q1 Earnings Misses Sales Shares Down | Israel based Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd NYSE TEVA is a global pharmaceutical company with a strong presence in the generics as well as branded markets The company s branded products include Copaxone multiple sclerosis Austedo chorea associated with Huntington s disease and tardive dyskinesia and respiratory products like ProAir and Qvar Teva is facing significant challenges in the form of accelerated generic competition for Copaxone new competition for branded products pricing erosion in the U S generics business and a massive debt load However it has made impressive progress on restructuring activities and has a more stable financial position than before However we believe the company has a long way to go before it gains stability Teva s earnings surpassed expectations in three the last four quarters with the average positive surprise being 18 24 Currently TEVA has a Zacks Rank 5 Strong Sell but that could definitely change following the company s earnings report which was just released You can see We have highlighted some of the key stats from this just revealed announcement below Earnings Beat Teva s first quarter earnings came in at 60 cents per share which beat the consensus estimate of 58 cents Revenues Miss Teva posted revenues of 4 3 billion which missed the consensus estimates of 4 41 billion Sales declined 15 down 12 in constant currency terms year over year Key Statistics North America segment sales were 2 05 billion down 19 year over year due to pricing erosion in U S generics market lower sales of Copaxone as well as other branded drugs Bendeka Treanda and QVAR In the United States revenues declined 20 to 1 91 billion Lead branded product Copaxone posted sales of 208 million in North America down 56 year over year due to generic competition in the United States ProAir sales also declined sharply by 55 to 59 million Sales of generic products declined 11 to 966 million The Europe segment recorded revenues of 1 26 billion down 12 down 5 in constant currency terms year over year In the International Markets segment sales declined 11 down 3 in constant currency terms to 668 million 2019 Outlook Maintained Teva re affirmed its previously issued guidance for sales and earnings in 2019 The company expects revenues to be in the range of 17 17 4 billion Meanwhile the earnings guidance lie in a band of 2 20 2 50 per share Share Price Impact Shares were down around 1 in pre market trading Check back later for our full write up on this TEVA earnings report later
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd Price and Consensus
Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2019
In addition to the stocks discussed above would you like to know about our 10 finest buy and holds for the year Who wouldn t Our annual Top 10s have beaten the market with amazing regularity In 2018 while the market dropped 5 2 the portfolio scored well into double digits overall with individual stocks rising as high as 61 5 And from 2012 2017 while the market boomed 126 3 Zacks Top 10s reached an even more sensational 181 9 |
TEVA | Teva gets new CEO reports positive fremanezumab study shares jump | Investing com Shares of Teva Pharma Industries Ltd ADR NYSE TEVA rallied on Monday after the company released positive results from its trial on fremanezumab for the prevention of migraines and announced the appointment of a new CEO
Pre bell Teva announced that Kare Schultz will be its new chief executive Schultz is a healthcare veteran with about 30 years of experience in the industry most recently serving as CEO of Denmark s H Lundbeck The company has been searching for a new leader for months and pre bell when Teva announced that it had found a new leader shares climbed over 7
But this wasn t the end of the good news for the company Later Monday the company presented the results of its Phase 3 clinical trial assessing fremanezumab for the prevention of migraines The company said the study demonstrated its efficacy for all 25 primary and secondary analyses in both monthly and quarterly dosing regimens Patients with chronic migraines treated with fremanezumab experienced a statistically significant reduction in the number of migraine days of at least moderate severity compared to placebo Patients also experienced improvements in quality of life and health measures less work productivity loss and significant reductions in impairment activity outside of work
This news caused Teva s shares to experience even heftier gains Shares were recently up 21 at 18 77 Volumes were heavy with 71 38 million shares changing hands versus the prior 30 day average for 27 56 million shares traded per day |
TEVA | Premarket Gainers as of 9 05 am | ALDX 53 on its lead product candidate successful in mid stage dry eye study AEMD 47 as FDA designates Aethlon Hemopurifier for accelerated review CTIC 7 on positive analyst action TA 7 on the announcement that it has won its litigation against Comdata TEVA 6 on selling Paragard asset to CooperSurgical for 1 1B DRYS 5 on commencement of Its second very large gas carrier 5 year time charter with an oil major Now read |
TEVA | Teva sells remaining assets in women s health unit for 1 38B shares ease 1 premarket as RBC says turnaround to be prolonged | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries NYSE TEVA inks two agreements to sell the remaining assets in its specialty global women s health business for 1 38B Proceeds including the recently announced sale of PARAGARD will be used to pay down debt
The first deal involves the sale of a portfolio of products including Ovaleap Zoely Seasonique and Colpotrophine to CVC Capital Partners Fund VI for 703M in cash The group accounted for 258M in sales in 2016
The second deal is with Foundation Consumer Healthcare to sell Plan B One Step and Teva s emergency contraceptive brands for 675M in cash The products generated 140M in sales in 2016
The transactions should close by year end
RBC s Randall Stanicky has cut the price target on the stock to 15 UNDERPERFORM citing the company s prolonged turnaround He doesn t seed its leverage ratio falling to 3x EBITDA until 2020 it s 5 5x now
Previously Teva sells Paragard asset to CooperSurgical for 1 1B Sept 11
Now read |
TEVA | Teva teams up with Nuvelution Pharma to accelerate development of Austedo for Tourette syndrome shares up 1 | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries TEVA 0 7 inks an agreement with privately held Nuvelution Pharma aimed at accelerating development of AUSTEDO deutetrabenazine for the treatment of a movement disorder called Tourette syndrome Under the terms of the agreement Nuvelution will fund and manage clinical development while Teva will be responsible for the regulatory process and commercialization Upon FDA approval Teva will pay Nuvelution a pre agreed return on its invested capital A Phase 3 study should start in Q4 AUSTEDO is currently approved in the U S for tardive dyskinesia and chorea associated with Huntington s disease Now read |
XOM | New Jersey environmental bills move ahead with Exxon deal pending | By Hilary Russ NEW YORK Reuters A New Jersey bill that calls for more money from environmental settlements to fund cleanups moved to the full state Assembly on Thursday in the wake of a controversial 225 million deal with Exxon Mobil Corp NYSE XOM A state Assembly committee released the bill which was already approved by the New Jersey Senate The committee also pushed forward a bill that would extend the public comment period on environmental settlements to 60 days from the current 30 Critics have questioned the timing motivation and size of the Exxon agreement which was announced earlier this month after more than a decade of litigation The state had once calculated damages at 8 9 billion The accord must undergo a public comment period and be approved by the judge overseeing the state s 2004 lawsuit against Exxon Governor Chris Christie a likely Republican contender in the 2016 U S presidential election is facing a budget crunch at home His administration said money from the settlement would not be available until at least fiscal 2016 The first 50 million of environmental settlements like the one struck with Exxon is used for restoration Any remaining money can go into the state s general fund The bill that moved forward on Thursday calls instead for 50 percent of that remaining money to be used for environmental purposes as well Over several decades an estimated 7 million gallons of petroleum products and chemicals were spilled or spread into the soil and groundwater at Exxon s two former refineries in Linden and Bayonne What s happened here in Linden it s a travesty Linden Mayor Derek Armstead testified before the Assembly Judiciary Committee on Thursday I just don t trust the large corporations to be responsible enough to clean up In certain areas the smell is horrific he said We do have some wildlife and some fish in our streams but I would never think of trying to bring one home for dinner New Jersey Attorney General John Hoffman and Environmental Commissioner Bob Martin did not testify Both declined invitations to appear because they felt it wasn t appropriate according to committee Chair John McKeon
He said at the hearing that the two officials told him that if they testify in support of the settlement but the judge rejects the deal then they would find themselves in a compromised position and would have to go back to the drawing board |
CSCO | High Beta Currencies Benefitting The Most From US Data | EUR 10 Year Spanish Yields at 2 Month Low GBP Lifted by Another Piece of Good News CAD Surprise Decline in Manufacturing Sales NZD Job Ads Rebound AUD Slower Consumer Inflation Expectations and Average Wages JPY Yen Crosses Lifted by Chinese Comments High Beta FX Benefitting the Most from US Data After more than a week of consolidation in the equity market we are finally beginning to see some action The S P 500 rose to its highest level in 4 months thanks to stronger earnings from Cisco CSCO and improvements in the U S economy While yesterday morning s U S economic reports were mixed with some numbers beating expectations and others missing most of the data pointed to a continual economic recovery At some points this will be positive for the dollar and at others positive for risk Yesterday the price action of the greenback indicated that the recovery is benefitting high beta currencies the most The greenback traded lower against all of the major currencies except for the Japanese yen We have been looking for an upside breakout in USD JPY for a few weeks now and finally we are seeing some action The concurrent rally in the EUR USD USD JPY and S P 500 confirm that risk appetite has improved over the past 24 hours Yesterday morning we received more insight into the performance of the housing manufacturing and labor markets While every one of yesterday s reports except for building permits surprised to the downside there was no material deterioration Jobless claims increased more than anticipated this week and the past week s numbers were revised higher but the increase was too small to raise any eyebrows within the financial sector In fact claims were virtually unchanged and still consistent with an addition of 100k or more jobs in the month of August Continuing claims also dropped to 3 305 million from 3 336 million and the 4 week moving average dipped to 364k from 369k The housing market numbers on the other hand were mixed with starts falling 1 1 and permits rising 6 8 Starts and permits have been moving in diametrically opposite directions since the beginning of the year suggesting a major disconnect between when builders file applications and break ground on new projects At the end of the day however record low mortgage rates are still supporting the housing market with the number of permits filed rising to a 4 year high Even though housing starts dropped in July more projects were started last month compared to January Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region contracted more than expected in August but the pace of contraction improved with the index rising from 12 9 to 7 1 In light of these improvements Federal Reserve officials stepped up their opposition to Quantitative Easing Dallas Fed President Fisher who is not a voting member of the FOMC this year believes that additional stimulus won t have much impact on jobs and may look political Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota didn t talk about Quantitative Easing but said there is room to reduce the interest rate on excess reserves On Wednesday Fed President Plosser said he is dubious about the effectiveness of additional bond purchases in lowering the unemployment rate at a faster pace It is clear that QE3 is a controversial topic with strong supporters and equally strong critics Therefore unless there is a sharp pullback in the labor market or another near death experience in Europe QE3 will be shelved for the time being EUR 10 Year Spanish Yields at 2 Month Low The euro traded higher against the U S dollar but unlike other major currency pairs such as USD JPY and GBP USD yesterday s move did not take the EUR USD to a fresh monthly high Instead the currency pair remains trapped within its 1 5 week trading range of 1 2240 and 1 2440 Reassuring comments from German Chancellor Merkel lent support to the euro In a speech made during her trip to Canada Merkel reiterated her pledge to do everything we can in order to maintain the common currency In other words the Germans will fight tooth and nail to defend the euro but hopefully it won t come to that While the EUR USD remains very weak the recent stabilization in the currency is a big relief to policymakers The fact that 10 year Spanish bond yields also dropped to their lowest level in more than 2 months yesterday is music to their ears Consumer prices were the only piece of eurozone economic data released yesterday and EUR USD traders were completely unfazed by the sharp decline in inflationary pressures CPI fell 0 5 percent in July marking the third consecutive month of lower prices Accelerated budget cuts and increasing job losses in the region forced retailers to cut prices to attract demand The ECB won t be too worried however because on an annualized basis CPI rose from 1 6 to 1 7 Overall muted inflationary pressures in eurozone leave room for further easing from the ECB if needed German producer prices and Eurozone trade numbers are scheduled for release on Friday GBP Lifted by Another Piece of Good News The British pound rose against the U S dollar but weakened against the euro The big story in Europe was the sharp increase in U K consumer consumption last month Retail sales rose 0 3 percent in July and the icing on the cake was the sharp upward revision to the June numbers from 0 1 to 0 8 While retail sales ex autos were flat the market was looking for much weaker consumer spending numbers and for this reason Q2 GDP forecasts could be revised higher Retail sales should continue to rise in August thanks to the improvement in the labor market and spending around the Olympics This week s economic reports were overwhelmingly positive for the British pound Inflationary pressures increased more than expected in July the number of people filing for unemployment benefits dropped by 5 9k and consumer spending beat expectations While the Bank of England is still open to the idea of more stimulus the latest numbers will give them the flexibility to hold monetary policy steady at their next meeting in September No U K economic reports are due for release today CAD Surprise Decline in Manufacturing Sales The Canadian Australia and New Zealand dollars strengthened against the greenback yesterday Canadian manufacturing sales unexpectedly declined by 0 4 in June and was forecasted to increase by 0 3 Manufacturing sales declined in four of the past 6 months Sales of petroleum and coal products fell 10 6 in June Although manufacturing sales had dismal reports if petroleum and coal was excluded sales rose by 1 1 Petroleum and coal took a toll in June from lower prices and factory shutdowns Canadian stocks rallied as Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao signaled China may cut banks reserve requirements or interest rates after inflation slowed to 30 month low in July In other news German Chancellor Angela Merkel praised Canada s budget model for prospering without living on borrowed money Merkel hopes to replicate Canada s debt deficit model Canadian consumer prices are due for release on Friday Of the 3 commodity currencies the New Zealand dollar was the best performer yesterday thanks in large part to a rebound in job ads Manufacturing activity however contracted last month offsetting some of the upside surprise JPY Yen Crosses Lifted by Chinese Comments The Japanese yen weakened against all of the major traded currencies yesterday It has been another quiet day in Japan with no new market moving data on the calendar Asians stocks rose with the Nikkei 225 Index up by 1 88 167 71 points to 9 092 76 after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao signaled the possibility of easing He said there s growing room for monetary policy operation and we have conditions and capabilities and will be sure to fulfill this year s economic and social development targets Wen also said that slowing inflation will allow more room to adjust monetary policy in the world s second largest economy Inflation slowed to a 30 month low in July and export growth has taken a toll There is no data expected for tomorrow in Japan |
CSCO | Stocks Get A Boost From Cisco Merkel Close Higher | U S stock indexes rose Thursday boosted by the tech sector and reassuring comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel Stocks looked past this morning s disappointing economic data which included housing starts jobless claims and mid Atlantic factory activity Cisco Systems CSCO shares led the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher Late Wednesday CSCO reported better than expected first quarter results and unveiled a plan to raise its quarterly dividend by 75 Adding more upside impetus was a comment from Angela Merkel that Germany remains committed to maintaining the euro Stateside economic data were mostly disappointing Housing starts fell coming in at 746 000 under the consensus of 750 000 and a prior level of 760 000 Housing permits however were up They came in at 812 000 topping consensus estimates of 766 000 and a prior level of 755 000 Jobless claims weighed in at 366 000 just over consensus estimates of 365 000 and over a prior level of 361 000 The four week moving average meanwhile showed a decrease moving to 363 750 from a prior level of 368 250 Factory activity in the mid Atlantic area contracted for the fourth straight month in August according to the Philadelphia Fed survey Both gold and oil had a strong showing today Gold for December delivery added 12 60 or 0 8 to settle at 1 619 20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange its highest settlement a little less than a week Oil ended 1 4 higher at 95 60 a barrel Here s where the markets stood at end of day US MARKETSDow Jones Industrial Index is up 85 41 0 65 to 13 250 19S P 500 is up 9 99 0 71 to 1 415 52Nasdaq Composite Index is up 31 46 1 04 to 3 062 39GLOBAL SENTIMENTFTSE 100 is down 3 95 0 07 to 5828 25DAX is up 40 95 0 59 to 6987 84CAC 40 is up 24 46 0 71 to 3473 66Nikkei 225 is up 167 72 1 88 to 9092 76Hang Seng Index is down 89 34 0 45 to 19962 95Shanghai China Composite Index is down 6 75 0 32 to 2112 20UPSIDE MOVERS BTH Announced that ViSalus has filed a registration statement on Form S 1 with the U S Securities and Exchange Commission for a potential initial public offering of its Class A common stock SINA Revenues Rise Vs Yr Ago EPS Beats Street EA Company Quietly Exploring a Sale According to the NY Post DOWNSIDE MOVERS PERY Reported Q2 EPS Revenues Miss Lowers FY13 EPS Outlook Below Consensus MCP Commenced Public Offerings of Convertible Senior Notes and Common Stock FB Today Marked First Lock Up Expiration Shares Hit Record Low |
XOM | The 3 Macro Questions Investors Must Ask Heading Into 2015 | I am ecstatic that the majority of my client base had 65 70 long exposure in lower volatility stock ETFs over the last two trading sessions The S P 500 picked up roughly 4 5 which means that these portfolio balances rose approximately 3 0 since the U S Federal Reserve promised to be patient with respect to raising overnight lending rates Many of the core holdings iShares USA Minimum Volatility NYSE USMV SPDR Select Sector Health Care ARCA XLV Vanguard High Dividend Yield NYSE VYM are the same ones that I have held since December of last year or longer
Yet I am equally elated that I offset global economic risk with a barbell approach to late stage bull market investing Extraordinary stock bullishness may have hammered extended duration U S Treasuries on Wednesday and Thursday but Vanguard Extended Duration NYSE EDV remains in a long term technical uptrend It is also up 40 4 year to date the S P 500 has been far more volatile on its way to 10 plus in 2014
The questions that need to be addressed as investors gear up for 2015 are 1 Can the U S economy continue to accelerate if the rest of the world continues to decelerate 2 Is it sensible to ratchet up one s exposure to U S stocks as though U S stock overvaluation no longer matters and 3 Is it wise to ignore signs of amplified exuberance I will address these inquiries one at a time
1 Can the U S Economy Continue to Accelerate if the Rest of the World Continues to Decelerate The answer is Not a chance Either the U S will succeed at hauling the rest of the globe out of its collective ditch or the rest of the globe will drag the U S down into the deflationary hole
Do not fall prey to those who write eloquently about the unique nature of the U S economy one that can magically sidestep the world s troubles as though it exists on a self sustaining island Not only is history quite clear on the U S economy s inability to expand at accelerating rates when the European and Japanese economies are weak not only does weakness in emerging areas from China to Russia to Brazil to the Middle East increase the risk of geopolitical shocks but the U S economy is expected to thrive while the Federal Reserve looks to slowly tighten monetary policy Equally concerning Bank of America anticipates that monetary stimulus from the easing in Japan and Europe would only offset about one third of the lost stimulus from the U S
Form my vantage point The economic environment in developed and under developed nations may actually show some signs of improvement in the years ahead but the U S will revert to its mean growth 2 of the 21st century There can be no renaissance when central banks distort natural cycles of expansion and contraction
What does this mean for the investor Perhaps ironically it may force the Federal Reserve to be unnaturally patient so accommodating that any modest increase in rates will be quickly reversed by year end 2015 Safe havens like iShares 10 20 Year Treasury TLH will continue to provide value and 10 plus corrections should prove to be reasonable entry points for overvalued albeit well diversified stock funds like Vanguard Value VTV As always I recommend protecting those buy orders with stop limit loss orders
2 Is it Sensible to Ratchet Up One s Exposure to U S Stocks as Though U S Stock Overvaluation No Longer Matters Of course not Nevertheless scores of writers and talkers have completely dismissed the mountain of overvaluation evidence with empty statements like Lower interest rates justify higher stock prices That may be true on the surface but it is not true when stock prices are 50 above the historical average for cyclically adjusted P Es
Other measures of stock overvaluation are equally unkind There is the Nobel laureate in economics James Tobin who hypothesized that the combined market value of all the companies on the stock market should be about equal to their replacement costs Mr Tobin s Q Ratio value sits near the top of every major bull market that history has to offer with the exception of the dot com bubble in 2000
Perhaps you do not wish to mind your P Es and Qs that s fine Can we at least agree that Warren Buffett knows how to value stocks The last time that Mr Buffett s favorite valuation metric total market capitalization to GDP was this out of whack 1999 In other words value oriented investors would not touch this market with Mr Buffett s wallet Mr Tobin s calculator or Mr Shiller s 10 Year cyclically adjusted P E
None of these facts about overvaluation suggest that one should sell his her stock assets outright In fact if you share my opinion that the Fed will not get very far in its efforts to normalize rates if you share my belief that rate normalization would harshly punish the excesses in credit in conjunction with lower asset prices you should be comfortable enough to nibble on beaten down equities during bouts of volatility The bashing of the Oil drum gives one reason to consider a dividend aristocrat like Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM for example What s more the Federal Reserve is highly likely to revert back to easing talk over tightening talk in 2015 keeping a sharp correction or baby bear from turning into a full fledged disaster
Still skittish You could protect any broad market purchase with a decision to sell if your exchange traded tracker falls below and stays below its long term 200 day moving average For example selling the iShares Core S P 500 ETF ARCA IVV near the start of what became known as the euro zone crisis in 2011 provided enormous peace of mind
3 Is it wise to ignore signs of amplified exuberance I don t believe that it is no And neither did John Maynard Keynes who said The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent If U S stock assets can surge for six years with little regard to fundamentals history or economics if they can rocket on false premises and unmitigated euphoria they can also plummet on illogical anxiety and frightful panic
The solution You have to have a plan for the eventuality You might not have believed that oil could fall from 110 to 55 per barrel for a 50 slide in a matter of months but the commodity is much lower than it was in April just the same Oil fell from nearly 150 to 30 per barrel in 2008 PowerShares NASDAQ 100 NASDAQ QQQ fell from 120 to 20 in 2002 the prices of risk assets can and will crater
Use stop limit orders or trendlines to raise cash in your accounts Similarly employ multi asset stock hedging by investing in currencies commodities and debt instruments that do not correlate with stocks Consider funds like CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ARCA FXY SPDR Gold Trust ARCA GLD as well as iShares 10 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF NYSE TLH in your multi asset hedging endeavors Similarly you might choose to emulate the index that I created for FTSE Russell the
Disclosure Gary Gordon MS CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial Inc a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC Gary Gordon Pacific Park Financial Inc and or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs mutual funds and or any investment asset mentioned above The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy sell or hold securities At times issuers of exchange traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial Inc or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships |
TEVA | Jazz Pharmaceuticals Sleep Drug NDA Awaits FDA Decision | Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc s NASDAQ JAZZ NDA for lead pipeline candidate solriamfetol JZP 110 awaits FDA decision on Wednesday The new drug application NDA under review seeks approval of the drug as a treatment to improve wakefulness and reduce excessive daytime sleepiness EDS in adult patients with narcolepsy or obstructive sleep apnea OSA The NDA was filed in March 2018 with a PDUFA date of Dec 20 2018 However in December the FDA extended the review period for the NDA by three months The extension was due to submission of updated data on draft labeling by Jazz which was considered as a major amendment to the NDA by the regulatory authority Solriamfetol has also been evaluated in a phase II study for excessive sleepiness associated with Parkinson s disease Top line data is expected soon Jazz s shares are up 9 3 so far this year compared with the s rally of 17 A potential approval to solriamfetol may lead to significant increase in the company s share price We note that the company has developed solriamfetol in an indication similar to its sole marketed drug Xyrem The drug is currently sold across 21 countries by UCB Pharma a multinational biopharmaceutical company with rights to market Xyrem in 54 countries Jazz is also developing another candidate JZP 258 a low sodium formulation and a Xyrem follow on product in late stage studies for EDS and cataplexy in narcolepsy patients Xyrem sales grew significantly in 2018 and totaled 1 4 billion In 2018 the drug generated almost 75 of Jazz s total revenues The company expects Xyrem s sales to be in the range of 1 53 1 57 billion in 2019 However several patents protecting the drug are nearing expiration starting December 2019 Moreover an authorized generic version of the drug is likely to hit the markets as early as 2023 Potential approval for solriamfetol will be crucial for the company as it will strengthen Jazz s sleep disorder portfolio as well as help offset a potential decline in Xyrem sales following a generic launch Successful development of JZP 258 and its potential approval will be an additional boost for the company Some other pharma biotech companies are developing treatments for narcolepsy Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc NASDAQ AVDL is one of them Approved drugs for narcolepsy include Teva Pharma s NYSE TEVA Provigil and Novartis NYSE NVS Ritalin SR A negative decision from the FDA tomorrow is likely to have a significant unfavorable impact on the company s stock Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC Price
Zacks RankJazz currently has Zacks Rank 3 Hold You can see This Could Be the Fastest Way to Grow Wealth in 2019Research indicates one sector is poised to deliver a crop of the best performing stocks you ll find anywhere in the market Breaking news in this space frequently creates quick double and triple digit profit opportunities These companies are changing the world and owning their stocks could transform your portfolio in 2019 and beyond Recent trades from this sector have generated 98 119 and 164 gains in as little as 1 month |
TEVA | Jazz s Xyrem Follow On Drug Succeeds In Phase III Study | Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc NASDAQ JAZZ announced positive top line data from a phase III study evaluating its sleep disorder candidate JZP 258 Data showed that treatment with the candidate achieved clinically meaningful maintenance of efficacy in adult patients suffering from cataplexy and excessive daytime sleepiness EDS with narcolepsy
JZP 258 is an oxybate product candidate with 92 less sodium content than its marketed product Xyrem sodium oxybate Xyrem is currently approved for narcolepsy with cataplexy and EDS
Jazz s shares have increased 10 1 so far this year compared with the s rise of 15 2
The phase III study evaluated JZP 258 for change in weekly cataplexy attacks compared to a placebo in adult patients with narcolepsy as its primary endpoint It was mainly initiated to reduce sodium intake in narcolepsy patients associated with Xyrem Data from the study demonstrated highly statistically significant differences in the number of cataplexy attacks as well as in the key secondary endpoint of change in Epworth Sleepiness Scale ESS score for JZP 258 versus placebo The candidate has a safety profile similar to Xyrem
Detailed data from the study will be presented at an upcoming medical meeting Top line data from the phase III study along with interim data from an ongoing 24 week open label safety study will form the basis for the new drug application NDA for JZP 258
Xyrem generates significant revenues for Jazz with sales from the drug expected to cross 1 5 billion in 2019 Earlier this month the FDA approved Sunosi as a treatment to improve wakefulness and reduce EDS Potential approval to JZP 258 will boost Jazz s sleep disorder portfolio further
Moreover JZP 258 is likely to expand the patient population for Jazz as it will include patients ineligible for Xyrem as they are at risk for high sodium intake related consequences including hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases The highest approved dose of Xyrem of 9 grams per night contains 1 640 mg of sodium which is almost 70 of the recommended daily sodium intake for a healthy adult per an published on FDA s website
The generic version of Xyrem is set to hit the market starting 2023 The low sodium content of JZP 258 and a similar safety profile is likely to largely offset the decline in Xyrem sales once generic versions enter the market
A few other pharma companies are also developing treatment for narcolepsy which includes Avadel Pharmaceuticals NASDAQ AVDL Approved drugs for narcolepsy include Teva Pharma s NYSE TEVA Provigil and Novartis NYSE NVS Ritalin SR Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC Price
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Jazz currently has Zacks Rank 3 Hold
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Would you like to see the updated picks from our best market beating strategies From 2017 through 2018 while the S P 500 gained 15 8 five of our screens returned 38 0 61 3 61 6 68 1 and 98 3
This outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon From 2000 2018 while the S P averaged 4 8 per year our top strategies averaged up to 56 2 per year |
TEVA | BioDelivery BDSI Buys US Rights To Pain Drug For 30M | BioDelivery Sciences International Inc NASDAQ BDSI announced that it has inked an exclusive licensing agreement with Japanese pharma company Shionogi acquiring U S commercial rights to the latter s tablet for opioid induced constipation OIC Symproic naldemedine Symproic is an innovative approved for treating constipation caused by opioid pain non cancer relief drugs The agreement is likely to boost BioDelivery s commercial pain portfolio which includes Belbuca which is also approved for treating chronic pain The company expects combined net sales from Symproic and Belbuca to reach 325 million to 400 million over the long term Shares of the company have increased 36 4 so far this year compared with the s rise of 9 7 Per the terms of the agreement BioDelivery is liable to pay 20 million upfront and an additional 10 million in six months to Shionogi The Japanese company is also eligible to receive tiered royalty on nets sales of Symproic in the United States from BioDelivery Following the acquisition of Symproic rights BioDelivery anticipates net sales from Symproic to be in the range of 7 million 9 million and total net sales between 92 million and 100 million previously 85 million to 90 million in 2019 We remind investors that BioDelivery has progressed impressively with the expansion of the covered patient population for its major revenue generator Belbuca The company currently has more than 100 million patients under preferred coverage compared with 7 million at the beginning of 2018 This has significantly boosted the drug s sales which increased nearly 70 in 2018 from 2017 Prescription volume for Belbuca has expanded 26 year over year Moreover the settlement of the patent litigation with Teva Pharmaceuticals NYSE TEVA in early 2018 will keep generic competition for Belbuca at bay till mid 2027 BioDelivery Sciences International Inc Price
Zacks Rank Stocks to ConsiderBioDelivery currently carries a Zacks Rank 4 Sell A couple of better ranked stocks in the same sector include ANI Pharmaceuticals Inc NASDAQ ANIP and Kamada Ltd NASDAQ KMDA both sporting a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see ANI Pharmaceuticals earnings estimates have increased from 5 90 to 5 97 for 2019 and from 6 58 to 6 62 for 2020 over the past 60 days The stock has rallied 53 6 so far this year Kamada s earnings estimates have increased from 35 cents to 47 cents for 2019 and from 60 cents to 63 cents for 2020 over the past 60 days The stock has rallied 19 so far this year Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple Digit Profit PotentialThe biotech sector is projected to surge beyond 775 billion by 2024 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases They re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases Zacks has just released Century of Biology 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance Our recent biotech recommendations have produced gains of 98 119 and 164 in as little as 1 month The stocks in this report could perform even better |
TEVA | Teva launches latest generic shares higher in response | Investing com Teva Pharma Industries Ltd ADR NYSE TEVA has launched its generic version of Eli Lilly s Axiron topical solution CIII in the U S Axiron is I used to treat adult men with low or no testosterone The U S market is worth approximately 247 million according to IMS
Teva s shares were up over 1 following the news |
TEVA | Companies eyeing Teva s women s health assets Bloomberg | Bloomberg reports that health products firms Church Dwight CHD and The Cooper Companies COO 0 3 are mulling bids for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries TEVA 0 8 women s health portfolio estimated to be worth 2B Teva may sell the unit as one or split the U S and European businesses to accommodate the specific interests of bidders CHD and COO are most interested in the U S operation Interested parties ex U S include India s Intas Pharmaceuticals Ltd and French buyout shop Astorg Partners although the latter is not alone Other buyout firms in the mix include CVC Capital Partners Thomas H Lee Partners Apax Partners TPG Capital French shop Pierre Fabre SA and Spain s Chemo Group Teva is shedding assets in order to pare down its substantial debt burden 35B at the end of June Now read |
TEVA | Credit Suisse softens view on Teva sees 21 downside risk shares down 2 premarket | Bearish sentiment is still dogging Teva Pharmaceutical Industries NYSE TEVA This morning Credit Suisse SIX CSGN downgraded the stock to Underperform and lowered its price target to 13 21 downside risk from 25
Analyst Vamil Divan says the company s core challenge is not going to fade anytime soon citing uncertainties with the firm s leadership and strategy and pricing headwinds in generics Top seller Copaxone will probably face generic competition no later than Q1 2018 Migraine candidate fremanezumab is a bright spot but U S approval may not come until late 2018
A turnaround may come if it hires a credible CEO and receives top dollar for the non core assets that it plans to divest
Shares are down 2 premarket on increased volume
Source Bloomberg
Now read |
TEVA | Teva finally gets a new CEO | Ending months of speculation over who will lead the drugmaker TEVA has named Kare Schultz as its new chief executive as it struggles under the weight of an acquisition streak generic competition and tough pricing environment
The healthcare veteran joins the company with about 30 years of experience in the industry most recently serving as CEO of Denmark s H Lundbeck OTCPK HLUYY
TEVA 7 4 premarket
Now read |
XOM | Bells toll for Europe s largest gas field | By Toby Sterling WESTERWIJTWERD Netherlands Reuters Dutch church bells that for centuries have tolled to warn of floods across the low lying countryside are sounding the alarm for a new threat earthquakes linked to Europe s largest natural gas field Money can buy a lot of things but a building like this cannot be replaced said Jur Bekooy a civil engineer with the Groningen Old Churches Association pointing to cracks in the ceiling and walls of the 13th century Maria Church in the village of Westerwijtwerd Long ignored voices like Bekooy s are being heard as elections loom this month and following a damning report from the independent Dutch Safety Board It accused the government and the field s operators Royal Dutch Shell L RDSa and Exxon Mobil Corp N XOM of ignoring the threat of earthquakes linked to the massive Groningen gas field for years There are now questions about the future exploitation of the field that lies under the northern province of Groningen with implications that reach well beyond its significance for Dutch state coffers Lessons from Groningen which lies far from any natural fault line feed into a debate over the threat posed by hydraulic fracturing in the United States China Britain and elsewhere The world s 10th largest gas field Groningen is expected to supply the bulk of the Netherlands annual gas needs of 20 30 billion cubic meters bcm until the mid 2020s The Dutch also have contracts to sell 40 60 bcm annually to buyers in Germany Britain Italy Belgium and France In all Groningen and a few smaller Dutch fields supply 15 percent of Europe s gas consumption providing one alternative to Russian supply When Economic Affairs Minister Henk Kamp recently ordered production at Groningen cut by 16 percent gas prices jumped across Western Europe RAMPED UP Groningen has been in continuous production since 1963 As far back as 1993 small quakes were definitively linked to its output But in the late 2000s they suddenly became more frequent and stronger With government finances under pressure from the 2008 financial crisis production at Groningen had been ramped up from around 30 bcm in 2007 to more than 50 bcm by 2010 The money generated helped the Dutch cushion the blow of austerity policies championed by the Cabinet As Prime Minister Mark Rutte publicly pressed southern European governments to bring their spending under control Dutch government gas revenues of 15 billion euros by 2013 were about the size of the national deficit Without gas the deficit that year would have doubled from 2 5 percent to 5 percent violating eurozone budget rules But on Aug 16 2012 an earthquake with its epicenter under the town of Huizinge marked the beginning of the end for aggressive output from Groningen It registered 3 6 on the Richter scale larger than any predicted by engineers at NAM the joint venture field operator between Shell and Exxon Until the Huizinge earthquake we had 1 100 damage claims in 20 years said NAM spokesman Sander van Rootselaar After the quake we had more than 30 000 Earthquakes caused by gas production are usually small unless they happen near a fault line and can trigger a larger natural quake But in Groningen they occur close to the surface damaging stone and brick buildings never designed to withstand shaking Of the 50 churches located above the field some 40 have been affected said Bekooy BELLS TOLL When parliament gathered in The Hague to debate gas policy in early February church bells all across Groningen province were rung in protest NAM has so far put aside 1 2 billion euros 1 34 billion to compensate damage claims More claims are rolling in including after a 2 6 quake registered in the town of Appingedam last week But safety is the bigger issue In January 2013 the regulatory agency tasked with overseeing gas production warned the government of a linear relationship between the rate of production and the chance of earthquakes at Groningen It said it could not rule out quakes measuring 4 or even 5 on the Richter scale with risk to human life The State Supervision of Mines advised production be cut as quickly and as much as is possible and realistic But that year with the Dutch economy in recession the Groningen field produced 53 4 bcm its most in decades In 2013 when it was very cold in Europe there was enough gas in Groningen to really run it hard said Thomson Reuters Point Carbon analyst Oliver Sanderson The earthquakes continued As the Dutch economy showed signs of recovery Kamp ordered production temporarily lowered to 42 5 bcm for 2014 and 39 5 bcm for 2015 PRICES SURGE Then in February the Safety Boar By Toby Sterling WESTERWIJTWERD Netherlands Reuters Dutch church bells that for centuries have tolled to warn of floods across the low lying countryside are sounding the alarm for a new threat earthquakes linked to Europe s largest natural gas field Money can buy a lot of things but a building like this cannot be replaced said Jur Bekooy a civil engineer with the Groningen Old Churches Association pointing to cracks in the ceiling and walls of the 13th century Maria Church in the village of Westerwijtwerd Long ignored voices like Bekooy s are being heard as elections loom this month and following a damning report from the independent Dutch Safety Board It accused the government and the field s operators Royal Dutch Shell L RDSa and Exxon Mobil Corp N XOM of ignoring the threat of earthquakes linked to the massive Groningen gas field for years There are now questions about the future exploitation of the field that lies under the northern province of Groningen with implications that reach well beyond its significance for Dutch state coffers Lessons from Groningen which lies far from any natural fault line feed into a debate over the threat posed by hydraulic fracturing in the United States China Britain and elsewhere The world s 10th largest gas field Groningen is expected to supply the bulk of the Netherlands annual gas needs of 20 30 billion cubic meters bcm until the mid 2020s The Dutch also have contracts to sell 40 60 bcm annually to buyers in Germany Britain Italy Belgium and France In all Groningen and a few smaller Dutch fields supply 15 percent of Europe s gas consumption providing one alternative to Russian supply When Economic Affairs Minister Henk Kamp recently ordered production at Groningen cut by 16 percent gas prices jumped across Western Europe RAMPED UP Groningen has been in continuous production since 1963 As far back as 1993 small quakes were definitively linked to its output But in the late 2000s they suddenly became more frequent and stronger With government finances under pressure from the 2008 financial crisis production at Groningen had been ramped up from around 30 bcm in 2007 to more than 50 bcm by 2010 The money generated helped the Dutch cushion the blow of austerity policies championed by the Cabinet As Prime Minister Mark Rutte publicly pressed southern European governments to bring their spending under control Dutch government gas revenues of 15 billion euros by 2013 were about the size of the national deficit Without gas the deficit that year would have doubled from 2 5 percent to 5 percent violating eurozone budget rules But on Aug 16 2012 an earthquake with its epicenter under the town of Huizinge marked the beginning of the end for aggressive output from Groningen It registered 3 6 on the Richter scale larger than any predicted by engineers at NAM the joint venture field operator between Shell and Exxon Until the Huizinge earthquake we had 1 100 damage claims in 20 years said NAM spokesman Sander van Rootselaar After the quake we had more than 30 000 Earthquakes caused by gas production are usually small unless they happen near a fault line and can trigger a larger natural quake But in Groningen they occur close to the surface damaging stone and brick buildings never designed to withstand shaking Of the 50 churches located above the field some 40 have been affected said Bekooy BELLS TOLL When parliament gathered in The Hague to debate gas policy in early February church bells all across Groningen province were rung in protest NAM has so far put aside 1 2 billion euros 1 34 billion to compensate damage claims More claims are rolling in including after a 2 6 quake registered in the town of Appingedam last week But safety is the bigger issue In January 2013 the regulatory agency tasked with overseeing gas production warned the government of a linear relationship between the rate of production and the chance of earthquakes at Groningen It said it could not rule out quakes measuring 4 or even 5 on the Richter scale with risk to human life The State Supervision of Mines advised production be cut as quickly and as much as is possible and realistic But that year with the Dutch economy in recession the Groningen field produced 53 4 bcm its most in decades In 2013 when it was very cold in Europe there was enough gas in Groningen to really run it hard said Thomson Reuters Point Carbon analyst Oliver Sanderson The earthquakes continued As the Dutch economy showed signs of recovery Kamp ordered production temporarily lowered to 42 5 bcm for 2014 and 39 5 bcm for 2015 PRICES SURGE Then in February the Safety Board issued its finding that NAM and the government had put profits first and failed to act with due care for the safety of citizens in Groningen After previewing the conclusions Kamp on Feb 9 ordered Groningen production cut to 16 5 bcm for the first half of 2015 implying a cut to 33 bcm for the year Prices in Northwest Europe surged as much as 20 percent in response GasTerra the Netherlands national trading company was forced to purchase gas on the open market to meet its obligations The immediate impact of the Kamp output cut on prices has since faded helped by mild weather across Europe and LNG deliveries The underlying drivers are still bearish analyst Sanderson said citing new LNG supply coming on line in Qatar and Trinidad and prospects for more gas from Russia in the fall But Groningen has helped at least put a question mark over how bearish they will be he said What is clear is the market is no longer counting on a return to higher production levels from the Netherlands And without the Dutch acting as swing producers in a supply pinch increased price volatility is likely GasTerra has said it will sign no new contracts nor extend current ones as they expire With Dutch provincial elections set for March 18 parties across the political spectrum are demanding production be kept at current levels or reduced Kamp has delayed any decision until July 1 saying he awaits more expert advice KEEP DRILLING In the journal Science last month U S scientists said a global increase in gas related earthquakes appears mostly linked to modern exploitation techniques not only hydraulic fracturing but also underground waste water disposal and injecting carbon dioxide into depleted reservoirs to improve production Although the United States is our focus here Canada China the UK and others confront similar problems they wrote The threat can be reduced with a combination of better seismic tracking and access to industrial data on injections said Art McGarr of the U S Geological Survey lead author of the Science article That would allow us to detect induced earthquake problems at an early stage when seismic events are typically very small so as to avoid larger and potentially more damaging earthquakes later on he said With bans on fracking in several European countries already in place the concern about earthquakes will give gas opponents further ammunition Public attitudes against gas production have quickly hardened in the Netherlands On the North Sea island of Terschelling members of the city council voted unanimously last week against exploitation of a gas field with estimated reserves of 2 5 to 4 5 bcm In Groningen activist Pi van Weert whose home was damaged by quakes says he wants the province to declare independence from the Netherlands to halt gas production completely If I m honest there is no hope for that he said As long as the benefits outweigh the costs they re going to keep drilling
1 0 8930 euros |
XOM | Crude Oil remains unchanged in spite of attacks on Libyan oil fields | Investing com Crude oil prices remained virtually unchanged on Thursday in spite of continuing attacks by Islamic State militants that have forced the closure of nearly a dozen oil fields in Libya over the last week
On the Intercontinental Exchange ICE brent crude oil for April delivery traded at 61 21 in U S afternoon trading the same price it closed at a day earlier Brent crude traded at a range of 60 95 in European afternoon trading after reaching a daily high of 62 10 a barrel several hours earlier
WTI crude oil meanwhile fell slightly in U S afternoon trading dropping 0 38 or 0 74 to 51 15 WTI crude edged above 52 a barrel on Thursday morning before mildly falling back near Thursday s close
The spread between brent and WTI inched above 10 a barrel after hovering around 9 78 on Wednesday Earlier this week traders pushed the spread to around the 13 level
The moderate price changes on Thursday defied a trend of extreme volatility in oil markets Before trading on Thursday crude oil prices moved in either an up or down direction by 2 in 27 of the last 40 trading days Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM CEO Rex Tillerson told CNBC on Thursday that oil prices could remain on a volatile path beyond 2015
We need to pick up on market demand Tillerson said If you look at the performance of the U S economy it s okay but it s not robust Europe is still struggling with declining demand and China actually slowed its rate of energy demand growth All of those are conspiring to create this imbalance which is why I have indicated that people need to live with this for awhile
Tillerson s comments came one day after U S data indicated that oil supplies nationwide reached its highest level ever deepening concerns that the price of crude could plunge further
The U S Energy Information Administration EIA said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories rose by 10 3 million barrels for the week that ended Feb 26 marking the largest weekly increase since 2002 Weekly inventory increases have been the norm of late A week earlier U S crude oil inventories rose by 8 4 million barrels for the week that ended Feb 19 more than doubling forecasts of a 4 0 million weekly increase
Elsewhere natural gas futures for April delivery increased 2 or 0 056 to 2 825 per million BTU after the EIA reported a decline in inventory in its weekly report Earlier on Thursday natural gas futures reached a one week high at 2 834 |
XOM | NYMEX crude gains in Asia as investors eye demand prospects | Investing com Crude oil in Asia rose on Friday with support coming from foreasts that demand may soak up surplus supplies as central banks round the globe spur easy policies to boost growth WTI crude oil on The New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0 64 to 51 09 a barrel On the Intercontinental Exchange ICE Brent crude oil for April delivery traded at 61 21 a barrel on Thursday The spread between brent and WTI inched above 10 a barrel after hovering around 9 78 on Wednesday Earlier this week traders pushed the spread to around the 13 level Overnight cude oil prices remained virtually unchanged on Thursday in spite of continuing attacks by Islamic State militants that have forced the closure of nearly a dozen oil fields in Libya over the last week The moderate price changes on Thursday defied a trend of extreme volatility in oil markets Before trading on Thursday crude oil prices moved in either an up or down direction by 2 in 27 of the last 40 trading days Exxon Mobil NYSE NYSE XOM CEO Rex Tillerson told CNBC on Thursday that oil prices could remain on a volatile path beyond 2015 We need to pick up on market demand Tillerson said If you look at the performance of the U S economy it s okay but it s not robust Europe is still struggling with declining demand and China actually slowed its rate of energy demand growth All of those are conspiring to create this imbalance which is why I have indicated that people need to live with this for awhile Tillerson s comments came one day after U S data indicated that oil supplies nationwide reached its highest level ever deepening concerns that the price of crude could plunge further However central banks in China and India cut rates in the past week and Japana dn the European Central Bank continue easy policies designed to spur growth |
XOM | Are Oil Stock Dividends Safe | I pride myself on maintaining emotional detachment when I invest Markets are emotional and tend to overreact and when they do the levelheaded among us use it as an opportunity As Warren Buffett famously said the secret to his success is being greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy
With all of that said I m not ashamed to admit that the collapse in the price of crude oil and the resulting beating that energy stocks have endured has rattled me The price of crude is down by over 40 since June and many energy companies have seen their share prices fall by even more The drop in crude oil prices has also dragged down the stock markets of Russia and other oil producing emerging markets Even midstream pipeline MLPs have gotten crushed even though to energy prices is at least in theory negligible Everything even tangentally related to energy has gotten killed
I won t insult your intelligence by giving a price target on crude or on energy stocks What we are witnessing is a full blown panic and no one knows where the eventual bottom will be or what piece of news will mark it
I plan to write a longer piece on the energy rout and what it means for energy stocks and MLPs But today I want to address the dividends paid by the oil majors The drop in oil prices will no doubt take a bite out of oil company earnings But will it put oil stock dividends at risk
To answer that question let s go back in time The 1980s and 1990s were a horrendous time for energy prices Following the 1970s oil shortages the West adopted conservation policies and searched for new sources of supply The result was a 20 year bear market in energy
And guess what The oil majors kept paying their dividends and even raised them Take a look at the following two graphs The first is a simple graph of ExxonMobil s NYSE XOM dividend The second is also a chart of ExxonMobil s dividend but this time on a log scale which shows the percentage change and eliminates the distorting effects of compounding
As you can see dividend growth slowed down during the 1990s the era of cheap gasoline and massive SUVs But Exxon continued to grow its dividend and it was never cut
Exxon is just one company and this is 2014 not 1994 This time around things really could be different But I m not betting on it
You don t have to run out today and load up your portfolio with energy stocks That is likely to give you heartburn in today s volatility But I do recommend averaging into the high dividend paying oil majors on dips
Given that the broader U S market is not priced to deliver strong returns in the decade ahead dividends are more important than ever And some of the best dividend payers and raisers are to be found among Big Oil
Disclosure Charles Lewis Sizemore CFA is chief investment officer of the investment firm Sizemore Capital Management and the author of the blog |
XOM | The Alice In Wonderland World Of The Markets A Return To Reality | If you have ever read any of the enchanting and enduring books by Lewis Carroll you might be excused for thinking that you had indeed fallen asleep and entered the wonderland world with Alice and joined the Mad Hatters tea party the White Rabbit and the Queen of Hearts with all the courtiers After such a week it is hard to know what is fact and what is indeed fiction and as always the media is now awash with the doomongers and soothsayers all forecasting the end of the financial world as we know it But hold on one minute let s wake up and return to reality as did Alice to find that it was in fact simply a dream
But where do we begin to delve below the hype and the headlines to make sense of last week s price action for equity markets and perhaps the place to start is with oil which seems to be the hook on which the market makers have hung their hat It is strange to think that in any other scenario falling oil prices would generally be broadly welcomed resulting in lower production costs and increased corporate profits simplistic maybe but nevertheless a fact and whilst oil is a double edged sword in the context of inflation or a lack of inflation on balance one would imagine this to be good news
If we start with the UK it was no surprise to see the FTSE 100 fall and fall hard given the weighting of oil companies in the index with just two BP Plc NYSE BP and Shell NYSE RDSa comprising over 14 of the weighting of the index For the DOW 30 however the principle energy stock is Exxon NYSE XOM which fell almost 3 on Friday dragging the index down with it What was perhaps more interesting however was the associated price action of the NASDAQ and the S P 500 and for the former on the E mini until the final hour of trading on Friday and with the Dow down 250 points the NQ on the other hand had hardly moved trading in a narrow range until it too finally capitulated It was an extraordinary divergence given the market sentiment at the time and indicative of the fantasy world that we are witnessing at present where one commodity which has no previous close correlation to risk is now apparently the driver of sentiment Strange indeed
Stranger still has been the behaviour of the yen Whilst the early part of the week was characterized by a flurry of yen buying as markets fell with a consequent flight to safety on Friday the yen actually sold off against the USD JPY and most of the cross currency pairs Curioser and curioser as Alice said to the White Rabbit Indeed the volume on the daily chart for the USD JPY clearly signals buying of the pair and support at this level and certainly not the heavy selling we might expect
Moving to the index charts themselves and in particular the associated volumes the yardstick here is the volume of last week when compared against the volumes of the reversal in September and what is clear is that the volume on Friday was approximately half that of an equivalent candle Volume on Friday for the NQ emini was 402K against an equivalent of between 600K and 700K and suggesting that this is simply another managed and coordinated reversal with oil as the media vehicle Indeed Thursday s price action was the pre cursor to Friday where the market was moved higher and fast on low volume before reversing equally quickly A planned moved in preparation for Friday In addition and as I have said many times before we have yet to see a selling climax either in the futures market or indeed the cash markets and if and until we do then this is once again a correction of the longer term trend higher
And a further curiosity given the depths of these falls bond yields on the 2 and 10 year notes have not fallen as dramatically as one might expect in sharp contrast to the VIX which has reacted as expected
So some interesting times as we move towards year end Santa s rally appears to have juddered to a halt in the snow but for traders it s time to awake and to separate fact from fiction with volume and related market activity revealing the true path |
XOM | Earn Income From The Energy Crash | If you mention oil or gas stocks to energy investors you re apt to get a big eye roll
Prices for commodities are plunging and it takes a brave soul to venture out looking for bargains
With that said there are several opportunities for you to consider right now ones that many investors are overlooking in this treacherous market
The key
Focus on companies that have the money to pay and maintain dividends
And there are three companies that come to mind as bargain buys that ll pay
The Case for Kinder
The first is Kinder Morgan NYSE KMI the largest pipeline operator in the country The company s shares have barely blipped during this recent downturn and are trading much closer to 52 week highs than lows
Kinder is going to make money regardless of where oil prices trade unless they absolutely crash and burn But even then the company will still pull in some profits
As a natural gas pipeline operator it s involved in storing gas oil and other energy liquids This means it isn t very dependent on any one fuel Plus filling the role of transporter and storage player means Kinder is used regardless of price
Kinder is currently paying 4 2 and will likely raise that dividend next year barring a wholesale collapse There is history to back that position up too Kinder was making money when natural gas prices were well below what they are now
With the United States in strong economic shape more natural gas being used and oil still in high demand Kinder is sure to be a winner regardless of the daily price moves in the underlying commodities
Kinder is a strong place to invest But I would also stand behind two other companies with slightly different positions
Support Players
Investors should also consider a major producer like Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM The shares currently sport a 3 plus dividend much higher than the average stock in the S P 500
Exxon is a good bet because it s sitting on billions in cash and brings in billions more every quarter The company s earnings will definitely be hurt by lower oil prices But unless oil dips to around 40 per barrel they will still be able to make money from production and their other operations including refineries natural gas and transportation
And if oil recovers in the next 12 to 18 months which I expect it will Exxon s stock will be even more valuable
If you ve got the stomach for an investment that carries more risk but could have a much higher yield then preferred shares of energy producers are the way to go The yields there are moving significantly higher especially for some of the smaller lesser known names like Magnum Hunter NYSE MHR
This company which was primarily involved in the oil industry sold most of its oil assets close to the recent peak in prices and used that money to get into the natural gas sector
It seems someone at Magnum must have had a crystal ball because the company is now in a position to make profits on their preferred stocks even at current natural gas prices It has several preferred issues that are paying anywhere between 9 and 13 at current prices
The oil and energy patch is going to be under pressure for some time but I m confident that all three of these companies will weather this storm well
A Realistic View
Investing with a view of the here and now will require tremendous fortitude not unlike when the markets tanked in 2008 and 2009
It s never pleasant to watch your portfolio sink especially under the pressure of a largely fabricated crisis However buying low and selling high is the name of the game
We may not ever see better opportunities to buy into the energy sector at low prices than in the coming weeks and months
And the chase continues
BY Karim Rahemtulla |
TEVA | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd TEVA Outpaces Stock Market Gains What You Should Know | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd NYSE TEVA closed the most recent trading day at 16 64 moving 0 79 from the previous trading session This change outpaced the S P 500 s 0 37 gain on the day Elsewhere the Dow gained 0 25 while the tech heavy Nasdaq added 0 34
Prior to today s trading shares of the company had lost 4 46 over the past month This has lagged the Medical sector s gain of 1 34 and the S P 500 s gain of 1 83 in that time
Wall Street will be looking for positivity from TEVA as it approaches its next earnings report date In that report analysts expect TEVA to post earnings of 0 59 per share This would mark a year over year decline of 37 23 Meanwhile the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of 4 44 billion down 12 37 from the year ago period
For the full year our Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of 2 40 per share and revenue of 17 34 billion which would represent changes of 17 81 and 8 05 respectively from the prior year
Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for TEVA These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short term business trends As a result we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company s business outlook
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near term share price momentum We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear actionable rating model
Ranging from 1 Strong Buy to 5 Strong Sell the Zacks Rank system has a proven outside audited track record of outperformance with 1 stocks returning an average of 25 annually since 1988 The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 12 09 lower within the past month TEVA is currently a Zacks Rank 5 Strong Sell
Investors should also note TEVA s current valuation metrics including its Forward P E ratio of 6 88 Its industry sports an average Forward P E of 8 06 so we one might conclude that TEVA is trading at a discount comparatively
Meanwhile TEVA s PEG ratio is currently 3 02 The PEG ratio is similar to the widely used P E ratio but this metric also takes the company s expected earnings growth rate into account TEVA s industry had an average PEG ratio of 1 16 as of yesterday s close
The Medical Generic Drugs industry is part of the Medical sector This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 144 putting it in the bottom 44 of all 250 industries
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups Our research shows that the top 50 rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1
You can find more information on all of these metrics and much more on Zacks com |
TEVA | AstraZeneca says CEO Pascal Soriot will host earnings call | By Kate Holton and Paul Sandle LONDON Reuters Anglo Swedish pharmaceutical firm AstraZeneca L AZN said on Friday its chief executive Pascal Soriot would host a results call with reporters on July 27 after refusing to comment on speculation this week that he was leaving the firm An report on Wednesday on Israeli financial news website Calcalist said Soriot was in talks to join Israel s Teva Pharmaceutical NYSE TEVA Industries TA TEVA the world s biggest generic drugmaker Shares in AstraZeneca fell on Thursday and Friday following the report as the company stuck to its policy of not commenting on market rumor or speculation The cost of two days of silence in terms of the company s market capitalization was more than 3 billion pounds 3 9 billion An invitation sent to reporters after the market had closed on Friday said Soriot would be hosting the usual financial results call on July 27 You are invited to participate in a media teleconference hosted by Pascal Soriot CEO to discuss the results it said AstraZeneca shares lost 3 5 percent on Thursday and fell further on Friday to close at 48 75 pounds The timing of the news report alarmed investors coming as the company waits for all important data from a lung cancer drug trial which is seen as a game changer for Astra The company is hoping to secure a substantial slice of a multibillion dollar market by proving its combination of two immunotherapy drugs durvalumab and tremelimumab can help previously untreated patients with advanced lung cancer The results of the major trial called MYSTIC are due any day now One top 20 shareholder said there had been a newsflow vacuum It s hard because companies cannot be seen to be responding to every newspaper article because once you start you cannot stop But as we all agree if true then timing is interesting the shareholder said on condition of anonymity Moving to a generics drugmaker would be a big change in direction for French born Soriot 58 who made research based pharmaceuticals his whole drive at AstraZeneca Analysts at Leerink an investment bank that specializes in healthcare said Soriot s exit would come as a major surprise if true and leave AstraZeneca rudderless at a key time We spoke with the company who simply stated that it does not comment on rumors however it did not outright deny the report they said If true the optics around his departure would be terrible ahead of the MYSTIC readout AstraZeneca has already been shaken by the departure of the head of its European business Luke Miels who defected to rival GlaxoSmithKline and there have been a number of other senior management departures During his five years at AstraZeneca Soriot successfully defended the company against a 118 billion takeover approach from Pfizer N PFE He also rebuilt AstraZeneca s drugs pipeline through research and acquisitions to replace revenue lost from a wave of patent expiries on many of its blockbuster medicines The Calcalist report said Soriot had met Teva s search committee and its chairman to express his agreement to serve as its next CEO It said he was expected to earn twice as much as former boss Erez Vigodman and receive a signing bonus estimated at about 20 million It said the financial terms were still being discussed
1 0 7717 pounds |
TEVA | AstraZeneca CEO reassures staff aims to be at September cancer meet | By Ben Hirschler LONDON Reuters AstraZeneca Chief Executive Pascal Soriot responding to rumors he might leave the drugmaker to join rival Teva Pharmaceutical Industries NYSE TEVA has told staff he expects to work together with employees to see the company succeed A company spokeswoman added he was intending to attend the European Society for Medical Oncology ESMO annual meeting in Madrid in September assuming that AstraZeneca had clinical data on its new immunotherapy medicine ready to present at the event Soriot did not comment on whether he had received a job offer from Teva in the internal memo to staff which was sent out at the start of this week Rumors were part of everyday business he said and AstraZeneca had a policy of not commenting on speculation Together we are poised to achieve something remarkable and that few thought possible he wrote Nothing can break the momentum you have established and certainly not rumors The spokeswoman confirmed the content of the memo to staff A report in the Israeli media last week said Soriot was in talks to join Teva the world s biggest generic drugmaker That hit shares in AstraZeneca hard since it would leave the British drugmaker without a leader at a pivotal moment The company is awaiting for all important data from a lung cancer drug trial called MYSTIC which is viewed as crucial for the company s long term success AstraZeneca is hoping to secure a substantial slice of a multibillion dollar market by proving its combination of two immunotherapy drugs durvalumab and tremelimumab can help previously untreated patients with advanced lung cancer It has already proved in a separate trial called PACIFIC that durvalumab alone can help some patients with earlier stage disease Detailed findings from both studies could be presented at the ESMO meeting if scientists are able to prepare them for presentation in time That would make the cancer meeting a key event for AstraZeneca Soriot is a regular attendee at such medical meetings and the 58 year old Frenchman has made research based drug discovery the central focus of his time at AstraZeneca Moving to a generics drugmaker like Teva would therefore be a big change in direction
During his five years at AstraZeneca Soriot successfully defended the company against a takeover approach from Pfizer NYSE PFE and has rebuilt the drugs pipeline through both in house research and acquisitions |
TEVA | Teva to proceed with Rimsa breach of contract suit after ruling | By Steven Scheer JERUSALEM Reuters Teva Pharmaceutical Industries TA TEVA said on Thursday it would continue to pursue a breach of contract suit against the former owners of its Rimsa plant in Mexico after a New York judge rejected Teva s claim of fraud Israel based Teva N TEVA the world s largest generic drugmaker bought the Rimsa plant in 2016 in a 2 3 billion deal only to shut it down immediately saying the operation was overrun by improprieties Rimsa s previous owners the Espinosa family deny this and the two sides have been locked in a legal battle On Wednesday New York State s Supreme Court said the Espinosas did not commit fraud but at the same time did not reject Teva s breach of contract claims according to people familiar with the legal case The decision does not eliminate all of our claims Our breach of contract claim against the Espinosas arising out of their false misrepresentations will continue to proceed with the benefit of discovery Teva said in an emailed statement to Reuters without elaborating In April Teva said it could resume some production at the Rimsa plant but an overhaul needed to bring the factory up to speed would take a few years The Rimsa debacle was part of a string of costly acquisitions as well as delayed drug launches that had prompted calls for a management overhaul at Teva In February CEO Erez Vigodman stepped down after three years and was replaced on an interim basis by Chairman Yitzhak Peterburg In April CFO Eyal Desheh also said he would step down Those positions have not yet been permanently filled
Teva s shares were 0 6 percent lower at midday in Tel Aviv They are down 20 percent so far in 2017 and 65 percent since the start of 2016 |
TEVA | Healthcare Top 5 Gainers Losers as of 11 00 am | Gainers OSUR 18 AEZS 12 WMGI 9 PACB 9 OMED 8 Losers AGRX 26 PMD 20 TEVA 18 GKOS 11 MASI 9 Now read |
TEVA | Teva s shares plunge after earnings miss lowered guidance | Investing com Teva Pharma Industries Ltd ADR NYSE TEVA stock is seeing a big sell off on Thursday as traders reacted to the company s disappointing second quarter results and lowered full year outlook
Teva posted EPS of 1 02 in the second quarter on revenue of 5 686 billion missing analysts forecast for 1 06 and 5 72 billion
Interim CEO Yitzhak Peterburg blamed the poor performance on a saturation of the U S generic drug market and challenges in Venezuela Commenting on the results Peterburg said All of us at Teva understand the frustration and disappointment of our shareholders in light of these results He added Given the current environment we have had to take swift and decisive actions We are focused on executing meaningful cost reductions rationalizing our assets and maximizing their value actively pursuing divestiture opportunities and strengthening our balance sheet We will continue to take action to aggressively confront our challenges
Israel based Teva calls itself the largest producer of generic medicines Peterburg has been CEO since February when Erez Vigodman resigned suddenly amid reports of a bribery investigation by the Israel Police
Teva also lowered its full year 2017 outlook The company now expects revenue between 22 8 billion and 23 2 billion versus the previous guidance for 23 8 billion to 24 5 billion Full year EPS was downgraded to between 4 30 and 4 50 from the prior 4 90 to 5 30 |
XOM | Exclusive Exxon wants five year Beaumont pact to avert strikes during buildout sources | By Erwin Seba HOUSTON Reuters Exxon Mobil Corp s N XOM push to persuade workers at its Beaumont Texas refinery to sign a five year contract nearly twice as long as the last one is part of an effort to avert labor stoppages during a possible expansion that could make it the largest such plant in the United States sources familiar with refinery operations said In a bid to win support the company has offered a 4 500 bonus to hourly workers represented by the United Steelworkers union which normally only signs three year deals in the refining industry the sources said A longer term contract the sources said would allow the company to avert walkouts if it decides to proceed with a building project that would take until 2020 to complete It might also weaken the local s hand in future talks they added As Reuters reported in July before crude prices plunged Exxon is evaluating a multibillion dollar expansion to lift the refinery s processing capacity to between 500 000 and 800 000 barrels per day from 344 600 bpd now The centerpiece of the plan which would bolster the U S Gulf Coast s position as a top global supplier of gasoline and diesel would be the addition of a third crude distillation unit They re talking about spending all this money for an expansion at Beaumont said one of the sources They don t want the opportunity for a strike A spokesman for Exxon which often tells investors it takes a long term view in a cyclical business said stability is the goal of the five year contract Beaumont is negotiating with USW Local 13 243 to pursue a longer term off pattern contract that will provide enhanced stability said Exxon spokesman Todd Spitler We believe a long term agreement will maintain Exxon Mobil s ability to compete in a range of economic conditions Acceptance of the proposal would leave the USW Beaumont local out of sync with the union s national bargaining program for refinery workers That means Beaumont workers might lose some of the leverage they have with the world s largest publicly traded oil company because they would no longer be able to negotiate as part of a nationwide bloc The cost if they lose is Exxon will handle them the way it wants to handle them said one of the sources Since talks started several weeks ago union leaders have rejected offers made by Exxon Beaumont according to messages sent to refinery workers by the company
Local union leaders in Beaumont declined to discuss the negotiations with Exxon |
XOM | Oil tumbles as huge supplies raise doubts about rally | By Barani Krishnan NEW YORK Reuters The comeback rally in oil paused on Wednesday with crude prices falling 5 percent or more after traders and investors were overwhelmed by the latest estimates for U S supply builds that came in nearly five times above market expectations Benchmark Brent oil fell below the psychological 60 support and U S crude traded not far above 50 after industry group American Petroleum Institute estimated a supply build of more than 14 million barrels last week A Reuters poll had expected a growth of just about 3 million barrels for the week to Feb 13 API S EIA S Oil had rallied over the past month with Brent rising 35 percent from a mid January low on short covering by traders fearing the market had hit bottom after a 60 percent price crash since June Violence in Iraq and Libya both important oil producers added fuel to the rebound But Wednesday s session showed that supply worries have gripped the market again We have more supply coming from here with the refinery maintenance season and that s prompting some people at least to ask if the market has overstretched itself with the rebound said Tariq Zahir managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors in Laurel Hollow in New York Crude stocks rose nearly 5 million barrels in the week ended Feb 6 taking total U S inventories to a record high of nearly 418 million barrels Official supply demand data for last week as well as updated inventory numbers will be provided by the government on Thursday EIA S Brent closed down 2 or 4 percent its most in two weeks at 60 53 a barrel It slid further in post settlement trade touching a low of 59 25 by 5 09 p m EST 2205 GMT On Tuesday Brent had risen to 63 its highest this year marking a 35 percent gain from a near six year low of 45 19 set on Jan 13 U S crude closed down 1 39 or 2 6 percent at 52 14 It traded as low as 50 32 post settlement Prices were down from the open as celebrations for the Chinese Lunar New Year that stretches into the weekend thinned trade volumes in Asia
The selloff picked up by afternoon following a fire and explosion at a gasoline processing unit in a refinery owned by Exxon Mobil N XOM in Torrance California near Los Angeles Gasoline and heating oil prices saw less losses compared to crude as traders reacted nervously to the incident |
XOM | Blast at Exxon refinery in California could hike gasoline prices | By Nichola Groom TORRANCE Calif Reuters An explosion and fire ripped through a gasoline processing unit at an Exxon Mobil Corp NYSE XOM refinery near Los Angeles on Wednesday leaving California with the threat of higher gasoline prices Investigators were trying to determine the cause of the blast in Torrance California which occurred shortly before 9 a m PST 12 p m ET Four contract workers were injured and sent to Long Beach Medical Center for evaluation Exxon said late on Wednesday that three of the workers had been released The company said it was operating units that had not been affected by the explosion at its 155 000 barrel per day refinery Torrance Fire Captain Steve Deuel said a small ground fire that followed the explosion had been quickly extinguished He said firefighters and refinery crews also contained a gasoline leak that had been caused by the blast Deuel said there was no evidence of foul play The California Department of Industrial Relations opened an investigation into the blast agency spokeswoman Julia Bernstein said The workplace safety agency issued an order forbidding Exxon Mobil from operating the 100 000 barrel per day fluid catalytic cracker a central gasoline producing unit until the investigation has been completed Bernstein said The department said the shutdown of the unit could last up to six months It is the second refinery shutdown in recent days The price of gasoline in Los Angeles surged to its highest level in about 18 months after the explosion on fears that local supply would tighten in the coming weeks Shorter supply could mean higher pump prices just as Californians and other U S motorists are benefiting from a slump in crude oil prices The fluid catalytic cracker is the facility s main gasoline producing unit Tesoro Corp NYSE TSO recently shut its nearby 240 000 barrel per day refinery in Martinez after United Steelworkers union members walked out The two events sent February deliveries of California gasoline known as CARBOB as high as 40 cents above futures On the New York Stock Exchange Tesoro shares rose 5 percent to close at 87 09 The company has three California refineries and may benefit from the incident Exxon Mobil s shares closed down 2 2 percent at 91 01 on the NYSE TAKE PRECAUTIONS Torrance Mayor Patrick Furey said in an interview with local television station KNBC that people who live near the refinery should take precautions The most important thing is to shelter in place stay indoors no outdoor activity turn the air conditioners off keep the windows closed Furey said A structure at the refinery was visibly damaged and smoke curled around twisted metal The air near the blast site smelled of sulfur and chemicals The South Coast Air Quality Management District dispatched inspectors to take air samples for analysis said agency spokesman Sam Atwood The agency issued a health advisory urging children the elderly and people with respiratory or heart conditions to stay indoors if they could see or smell smoke and for otherwise healthy people to avoid strenuous activity outdoors if they could see or smell smoke Cory Milsap an electrical contractor at the plant said many workers were sent home after the explosion The refinery occupies 750 acres 300 hectares and has 650 employees and 550 contractors All I heard was a loud sound All I saw was smoke and people running so I made sure I got out of there Milsap said Giselle Monreal a neighbor who lives across the street from the facility said the blast shook the ground like an earthquake knocking a 52 inch 132 cm flat screen television off its stand and shattering a window in her garage Torrance is a residential suburb about 20 miles 30 km south of Los Angeles The North American operations for Toyota Motor Corp and Honda Motor Co Ltd are based there The city had a population of more than 147 000 in 2013 according to a U S Census Bureau estimate Surrounding areas were not evacuated but nearby schools kept students and staff indoors immediately after the explosion as a precaution Fire Captain Deuel said Exxon was looking into the cause of the explosion according to Gesuina Paras a public and government affairs adviser at the company Trade publication OPIS citing an unidentified source reported that an electrostatic precipitator ESP which reduces fluid catalytic cracker particulates exploded as contract workers were doing maintenance on the nearby fluid catalytic cracking unit or FCC Contractors working on the FCC to fix the expanders the source said adding that an injection of ammonia on top of the flue gas stream caused a pressure buildup which resulted in the ESP unit explosion The unit could take up to a year to replace the source said The United Steelworkers walked out of 11 facilities including nine refineries accounting for 13 percent of U S production capacity after negotiations on a national contract stalled on Feb 1 One of the central issues according to the union is employee safety Torrance has not been involved in the walkouts Striking refinery workers said Wednesday s blast underscored concerns the United Steelworkers has about safety standards at refineries and chemical plants nationwide
Refiled for dropped word in paragraph 3 |
XOM | U S refinery strike passes 18th day but talks resume | By Erwin Seba HOUSTON Reuters The largest U S refinery workers strike since 1980 passed its 18th day on Wednesday but talks between union and oil company representatives over safety and pay restarted after a gap of a week and went into the night according to a union text message More than 5 000 workers at 11 plants including nine refineries accounting for 13 percent of U S production capacity remained on strike on Wednesday Industry responded to the information request and engaged in discussions into the evening the text message to United Steelworkers union USW members read Still miles apart Bargaining continues tomorrow Talks between the USW and lead oil company negotiator Royal Dutch Shell Plc had been on hold as the company drew up a response to an information request and a counterproposal from the union Shell resumed negotiations with the USW on Wednesday and continues to work towards reaching a mutually satisfactory agreement spokesman Ray Fisher said On Monday the union s lead negotiator International Vice President Gary Beevers told Reuters that safe staffing levels at refineries and chemical plants remained a sticking point The union also wants wage increases The USW has issued no new strike notices since Feb 6 when workers at plants in Whiting Indiana and Toledo Ohio were told to walk off their jobs the next day On Wednesday the USW sent a text message to members after an explosion at Exxon Mobil Corp NYSE XOM s 149 500 barrel per day Los Angeles area refinery in Torrance California The union said the blast which injured four contract workers showed the urgency of its goal to negotiate safer working conditions As USW pushes life saving safety improvements explosion rocks Exxon Torrance the message read Some injuries no fatalities Safe refineries save lives Exxon said four workers at the Torrance refinery were taken to hospital with injuries Lyondell Basell sent letters on Wednesday inviting more than 400 striking workers at its 263 776 bpd Houston refinery to cross picket lines and return to work under terms of the previous contract A USW spokeswoman said the company should focus on working with the union to improve safety Our workers at that location are in solidarity with what we re trying to achieve through the national pattern talks which is health and safety said USW spokeswoman Lynne Hancock Tesoro Corp NYSE TSO s 166 000 bpd plant in Martinez California was the only refinery to cease operations due to the strike Part of it was already shut for maintenance and after the walkout started the rest was idled Tesoro officials have said production will not resume for the duration of the strike Shell has rescheduled from March until September a planned overhaul of a hydrocracking unit at its 327 000 barrels per day bpd joint venture refinery in Deer Park Texas sources told Reuters on Monday The USW is seeking a three year industrywide pact that would cover 30 000 workers at 63 U S refineries that together account for two thirds of domestic capacity
Companies have called on temporary replacement workers to keep plants running at nearly normal levels |
MRO | Stock Market Outlook January Decline Suggests Further Losses | Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today
Arch Coal Inc NYSE ACI Seasonal Chart
Imperial Oil Limited TSE IMO Seasonal Chart
PPG Industries Inc NYSE PPG Seasonal Chart
Marathon Oil Corporation NYSE MRO Seasonal Chart
Marsh McLennan Companies Inc NYSE MMC Seasonal Chart
NVIDIA Corporation NASDAQ NVDA Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks ended lower on Friday following a disappointing report on GDP for the fourth quarter The S P 500 Index closed down by 1 30 once again testing short term support around 1988
Friday s session also concluded the first month of 2015 the result of which has caused investors to be concerned of the potential returns for the year ahead Investors are now looking toward the January Barometer to anticipate the performance for the remainder of the year The theory behind the barometer is that the direction of the equity market during the month of January will forecast the movement of the market through the remainder of the year
The January decline of 3 10 on the S P 500 Index suggests further losses to follow However history suggests that using January as an indicator as to how the rest of the year will perform may be flawed Of the 24 losing Januarys over the past 60 years only 10 42 have seen losses continue through the remaining 11 months The predictive power of the barometer during negative Januarys such as the one that just past is clearly weak Overall the barometer has shown a success rate of 68 when the positive and negative Januarys are combined due to the 86 success rate of positive Januarys following by positive returns through the remainder of the year
Given that the general propensity for the broad market is for gains over the long term the higher frequency of success for positive years is to be expected Since the new year is only one month old and major benchmarks have yet to break support it remains too early to speculate on the direction of equity markets through the remaining months of the year
Looking forward to the month of February volatility remains the norm as earnings season continues Over the last 20 years the S P 500 has averaged a decline of 0 3 however positive results have been recorded in 60 of Februarys Following fourth quarter economic strength the first two months of the year tend to have few catalysts to influence stocks in any particular direction causing equity market gyrations during the earnings reporting period Profit taking following fourth quarter earning results is also a factor behind the volatile trading activity Stocks resume their gaining path into the month of March as the economy rebounds following the winter months Over the last 20 years consumer and material stocks have been the best performers in the month of February gaining in 65 of periods and averaging returns around 1 Financials Technology and Utilities have been the weakest sectors in February each gaining in 55 of periods and averaging a loss of around 1 3 Currently the weakest sectors during the month represent almost 40 of the weight of the S P 500 Index suggesting that the best performing sectors have to post strong returns in order to lift broad equity benchmarks higher
Sentiment on Friday as gauged by the put call ratio ended bearish at 1 14
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today
S P 500 Index
TSE Composite
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF TO HAC
Closing Market Value 15 60 down 0 13
Closing NAV Unit 15 56 down 0 34
Performance
performance calculated on Closing NAV Unit as provided by custodian
Disclaimer Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities As always the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends |
XOM | Dow Jones Analysis 5 Day Streak Is Broken | Dow JonesThe Dow ended slightly lower on Wednesday breaking their five day streak of record closing highs as energy and utility shares lost ground U S stocks ended Wednesday mixed to lower after lackluster European data gave investors reason to sell equities for profits Energy shares fell along with oil prices with Brent crude oil breaking below 80 a barrel for the first time since September 2010 Shares of Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE XOM were down 1 1 percent at 95 38 |
XOM | Contrarian Investing What Would Warren Do | About three weeks ago I wrote about possible contrarian plays in the oil patch see Do you have what it takes to be a contrarian investor I had pointed out that Warren Buffett had taken large stakes in Suncor NYSE SU and ExxonMobil NYSE XOM in Q2 2013 and the closing price of those stocks are approaching the top of the zone where Buffett made his purchases For contrarian value investors this could be a rare opportunity to step up and buy at depressed prices Here is the chart of SU
Here is XOM
80 oil
On the bottom panel of each chart I have shown the ratio of each stock to the WTI Oil price Given how oil prices have cratered in the last couple of days the SU oil and XOM oil are at considerably higher valuations than the Buffett buy zone which indicates that the price of these two stocks are nowhere near valuation levels where Buffett would buy again As the oil market is in turmoil the price of crude is likely to be volatile and current prices are unlikely to be the long term equilibrium price One sensible comment that I saw Friday came from Neil Irwin who that the futures curve was discounting a 5 year price of roughly 80
80 is certainly a better level than the closing price Friday and about 10 below where Buffett made his SU and XOM purchases
A near term bottom for oil
Indeed the market psychology may be getting close to a temporary bottom What convinced me was when I saw Ian Bremmer who is a political analyst the following comment on a topic outside his area of specialization
These kinds of sarcastic comments are closely related to the magazine covers effect where the general public seizes on a market condition when it s very late in the game and they mark a market turning point Most recently well known investment professional and blogger Josh Brown this irreverent comment
right before the market open on October 15 the day of the most recent market bottom
It is said that value oriented contrarians buy when blood is running in the streets Is there enough blood in the streets yet What would Warren Buffett do
Disclosure Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd Qwest This article is prepared by Mr Hui as an outside business activity As such Qwest does not review or approve materials presented herein The opinions and any recommendations expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Qwest None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions Past performance is not indicative of future results Either Qwest or Mr Hui may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned |
TEVA | Teva TEVA Misses On Q4 Earnings Beats Sales Shares Down | Israel based Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd NYSE TEVA is a global pharmaceutical company with a strong presence in the generics as well as branded markets The company s branded products include Copaxone multiple sclerosis Azilect Parkinson s disease Austedo chorea associated with Huntington s disease and tardive dyskinesia and respiratory products like ProAir and Qvar Teva is facing significant challenges in the form of accelerated generic competition for Copaxone new competition for branded products pricing erosion in the U S generics business lower than expected contribution from new generic launches and a massive debt load Nonetheless Teva is progressing well on its strategic restructuring initiatives to revive growth Teva s earnings surpassed expectations in all the last four quarters resulting in an average positive surprise of 23 28 Currently TEVA has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold but that could definitely change following the company s earnings report which was just released You can see We have highlighted some of the key stats from this just revealed announcement below Earnings Miss Teva s fourth quarter earnings came in at 53 cents per share which missed consensus estimate of 56 cents Revenues Beat Teva posted revenues of 4 56 billion which marginally beat consensus estimates of 4 54 billion Sales declined 16 down 14 in constant currency terms year over year Key Statistics North America segment sales were 2 23 billion down 17 year over year due to pricing erosion in U S generics market lower sales of Copaxone as well as ProAir and QVAR and loss of sales from the divested Women s Health business Growth in Austedo sales partially offset the decline in sales In the United States revenues declined 17 to 2 1 billion Lead branded product Copaxone posted sales of 356 million in North America down 44 year over year due to generic competition in the United States Sales of generic products declined 10 to 1 1 billion However sales of Austedo increased from 17 million in year ago period to 68 million The Europe segment recorded revenues of 1 2 billion down 17 down 14 in constant currency terms year over year In the International Markets segments sales declined 13 in constant currency terms 2019 Outlook Weak Teva provided its guidance for sales and earnings in 2019 The company expects revenues to be in the range of 17 17 4 billion Meanwhile the earnings guidance lie in a band of 2 20 2 50 per share However earnings and sales outlook were lower than the Zacks consensus estimates Share Price Impact Shares were down more than 12 1 in pre market trading Check back later for our full write up on this TEVA earnings report later Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd Price and EPS Surprise
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TEVA | Teva Tanks As Downside Risk Grows | Summary
Teva Pharmaceutical NYSE TEVA fell 9 on Wednesday morning after it posted earnings that missed Wall Street expectations
The stock s market cycles point to a period of increasing risk as the current cycle matures resuming a declining phase
Teva reported earnings per share of 0 53 and total revenue of 4 56 billion compared to analyst estimates of 0 55 and 4 52 billion With regards to guidance its forecasted earnings and revenue that were below the average analyst estimates
CEO Kare Schultz explained that Looking ahead we continue to expect that 2019 will be the trough for our business noting that growth would return in 2020
With regard to Teva s market cycles we can see that the stock has already broken below the point at which it began the cycle It attempted to rally back up to that point but failed We expect downside risk to increase as the current cycle matures with a target below 15 by early April
For more from Slim or to learn about cycle analysis check out the askSlim Market Week show every Friday on our YouTube channel |
TEVA | What s In The Cards For Amarin AMRN This Earnings Season | Amarin Corporation PLC NASDAQ AMRN is likely to report its fourth quarter 2018 earnings soon Amarin s earnings performance in the last four quarters was dismal with the company missing estimates twice meeting the same on one occasion and beating the same on the other delivering an average negative surprise of 12 92 However shares of Amarin have significantly outperformed the in the past six months The stock has rallied 515 3 against the industry s decline of 10 4 In the last reported quarter Amarin delivered a positive earnings surprise of 33 33 Let s see how things are shaping up for this announcement Factors at PlayAmarin is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing innovating treatments for improving cardiovascular health The company s sole marketed drug Vascepa is approved as an adjunct to diet to reduce triglyceride levels in severe hypertriglyceridemia patients The drug showed strong sales growth in the first three quarters of 2018 Sales grew sequentially in the last two quarters Normalized prescriptions for the drug grew around 25 year over year in the first nine months of 2018 Sales of the drug are likely to receive a boost with its approval in the United Arab Emirates in July 2018 Moreover the settlement of a patent litigation with Teva Pharmaceuticals NYSE TEVA in May delayed generic competition for the drug to August 2029 Last month the company released preliminary results Vascepa sales are expected to be in the range of 72 76 million in the soon to be reported quarter The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vascepa sales stands at 74 million for the fourth quarter suggesting rise of nearly 38 from the year ago period The company also earns fees from its licensed partners related to commercialization of Vascepa outside the United States The Zacks Consensus Estimate for license revenues stands at 0 4 million for the soon to be reported quarter In September Amarin announced top line data from its cardiovascular outcomes study of Vascepa REDUCE IT Data from the study showed that relative risk of major adverse CV events was reduced by 25 upon treatment with Vascepa compared to placebo Follow up data announced in November showed that the drug also met its secondary endpoints with statistical significance and confirmed its potential to achieve cardiovascular benefits Operating expenses for the company are likely to remain high in the fourth quarter due to costs related to REDUCE IT study and initiatives to promote awareness for the drug Moreover the company is looking to file label expansion application for the drug to include cardiovascular outcomes study data The company has expanded its sales force to support the expansion However extinguishment of debt is likely lower interest expense for the company Investors will primarily focus on the company s expansion plan for Vascepa commercialization and its label expansion on its fourth quarter earnings call Earnings WhispersOur proven model does not conclusively show that Amarin is likely to beat estimates this quarter This is because a stock needs to have both a positive and a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy 2 Buy or 3 Hold to be able to beat estimates But that is not the case here as you will see below Earnings ESP Amarin s Earnings ESP is 0 00 This is because both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of 5 cents You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they re reported with our Zacks Rank Although Amarin s Zacks Rank 3 increases the predictive power of ESP its 0 00 ESP makes surprise prediction difficult Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank 4 or 5 Sell rated going into an earnings announcement especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions Amarin Corporation PLC Price and EPS Surprise
Stocks That Warrant a LookHere are two healthcare stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings Mallinckrodt NYSE MNK has an Earnings ESP of 5 36 and a Zacks Rank 2 The company is scheduled to report results on Feb 26 You can see BioDelivery Sciences International Inc NASDAQ BDSI has an Earnings ESP of 38 46 and a Zacks Rank 1 The Hottest Tech Mega Trend of AllLast year it generated 8 billion in global revenues By 2020 it s predicted to blast through the roof to 47 billion Famed investor Mark Cuban says it will produce the world s first trillionaires but that should still leave plenty of money for regular investors who make the right trades early |
TEVA | KemPharm on deck to present data on hydromorphone prodrug KP511 | KemPharm KMPH announces that it will present clinical data on KP511 its prodrug of opioid hydromorphone at the International Conference on Opioids in Boston June 11 13 Investor interest should pick up in companies developing alternatives to traditional opioid pain killers after the FDA s action to remove Endo s ENDP 11 8 OPANA ER oxymorphone HCl from the U S market due to its abuse potential Selected tickers EGLT OTCPK DSKYF OTCQB ELTP ACUR IPCI PTIE TEVA COLLNow read |
TEVA | Teva s candidate for topical treatment of PHN flunks mid stage study licensor Xenon Pharmaceuticals down 22 | Thinly traded nano cap Xenon Pharmaceuticals XENE 22 4 slumps on a 13x surge in volume after Teva Pharmaceutical Industries TEVA 1 5 announced that its candidate for the topical treatment of postherpetic neuralgia PHN TV 45070 failed to beat placebo in Phase 2 clinical trial Teva licensed the candidate a small molecule inhibitor of sodium channels expressed in the pain sensing peripheral nervous system in December 2012 The companies intend to completely analyze the data to determine the next steps Now read |
TEVA | AstraZeneca s CEO Soriot to join Israeli drugs company Teva report | TEL AVIV Reuters Israel based Teva Pharmaceutical Industries TA TEVA will name AstraZeneca L AZN chief executive Pascal Soriot as its next CEO the Calcalist financial news website said on Wednesday Soriot has met with Teva N TEVA representatives and expressed his agreement to serve as its next CEO Soriot is expected to earn twice as much as Vigodman and receive a bonus upon signing the contract estimated at about 20 million Calcalist said adding that the financial terms were still being discussed Shares in Teva were up 3 3 percent at 32 in late New York trade while AstraZeneca s shares in New York N AZN were up 1 3 percent at 33 67 No one could immediately be reached at AstraZeneca for comment Teva said it did not comment on market rumors The company s chairman Sol Barer said in May his top priority was the continuing global search to identify a candidate with deep and broad pharmaceutical experience to serve as Teva s permanent CEO Teva was left without a permanent CEO in February after Erez Vigodman stepped down leaving new management to try to restore confidence in the world s biggest generic drugmaker after a series of missteps Chief Financial Officer Eyal Desheh also resigned at the end of June Then chairman Yitzhak Peterburg replaced Vigodman on a temporary basis When asked whether Teva might waive its requirement for the CEO to be based in Israel Barer said in May We are looking around the world for the best candidate We are committed once we find that candidate to do what it takes to bring that candidate to Teva
The French born Soriot 58 has been serving as AstraZeneca s CEO since 2012 The Anglo Swedish drug company has been active in Israel since 2009 |
TEVA | Daimler slips miners provide support as European shares pause for breath | LONDON Reuters European shares inched higher on Thursday with investors less keen to chase the previous session s strong rally that came on the back of the relatively dovish tone struck by Fed chair Janet Yellen overnight The pan European STOXX 600 was up 0 1 percent in line with euro zone stocks and blue chips with rate sensitive real estate stocks which were top gainers on Wednesday pulling back slightly On Wednesday the European benchmark posted its best day since Macron s victory in the first round of presidential elections as banks and yield plays rallied Souring sentiment somewhat shares in Mercedes maker Daimler fell 1 5 percent to the bottom of the DAX after a report accusing the carmaker of selling cars with excess emissions However continued strength among miners which hit a near three month high supported the index Defense and engineering services firm Babcock led European gainers up 3 6 percent after a positive trading update leaving its full year outlook unchanged Earnings began trickling in from a string of French companies Supermarket Casino gained 2 1 percent leading the retail index which was among the strongest performers Spanish peer Dia also rose 2 4 percent
Drugmaker Astrazeneca LON AZN meanwhile was the worst European performer after a report Chief Executive Pascal Soriot was to be named CEO of Israel based Teva Pharmaceutical Industries NYSE TEVA |
TEVA | AstraZeneca offers no comment after report saying CEO staying | LONDON Reuters Anglo Swedish pharmaceutical firm AstraZeneca L AZN declined to comment on speculation about the future of its chief executive Pascal Soriot on Friday after a report quoted Bloomberg news agency saying he would stay in his post The StreetInsider com citing Bloomberg said Soriot was currently planning to stay for the foreseeable future When asked about the report an AstraZeneca spokeswoman declined to comment saying the firm had a policy of not responding to market speculation or rumors AstraZeneca has repeatedly declined to comment on Wednesday s Israeli media report saying Soriot was in talks to join Israel s Teva Pharmaceutical NYSE TEVA Industries TA TEVA Uncertainty over his future has hit AstraZeneca s shares |
TEVA | AstraZeneca says CEO Pascal Soriot to host call on results | LONDON Reuters Anglo Swedish pharmaceutical firm AstraZeneca L AZN said on Friday its chief executive Pascal Soriot would host a results call with reporters on July 27 after refusing to comment on speculation this week that he was leaving the firm AstraZeneca will announce its first half 2017 financial results at 07 00 BST 0600 GMT on Thursday 27 July 2017 the company said in an invitation to reporters You are invited to participate in a media teleconference hosted by Pascal Soriot CEO to discuss the results AstraZeneca has repeatedly declined to comment on Wednesday s Israeli media report saying Soriot was in talks to join Israel s Teva Pharmaceutical NYSE TEVA Industries TA TEVA
Uncertainty over Soriot s future has hit AstraZeneca s shares |
XOM | Exclusive Russia s Rosneft will not resume drilling in Kara Sea in 2015 sources | By Denis Pinchuk and Katya Golubkova MOSCOW Reuters Russian state controlled oil company Rosneft MM ROSN will not be able to resume drilling in the Kara Sea this year after Western sanctions halted its cooperation with ExxonMobil N XOM in a major setback for Moscow s energy ambitions two company sources said The delay will be a blow to Rosneft which was spearheading President Vladimir Putin s goal to increase output and secure Russia s energy dominance by exploring the Arctic where Moscow is believed to have one of the world s largest oil resources In September Rosneft announced it had found oil in the Kara Sea after drilling with Exxon at the Universitetskaya 1 well the most northerly in the world Oil resources in the Kara Sea are estimated to be comparable to those of Saudi Arabia The company was due to restart drilling this year but Exxon was forced to stop cooperation after the West imposed sanctions on Russia over its actions in the Ukraine crisis There will be no drilling in 2015 There is no platform and it is too late to get one The project was initially created for Exxon s platform a Rosneft source said The second source confirmed this Asked for comment Rosneft said In 2015 Rosneft will ensure implementation of its license obligations related to geological exploration in the Kara Sea Usually licenses give companies a certain period of time to complete work Rosneft did not give the timeframe offered by the license The second Rosneft source said the company planned to resume drilling in 2016 but that commercial production would now be pushed back to beyond 2020 Usually it takes 8 10 years from the first well to the first oil on the offshore but here you have such a difficult situation the source said Russia is the world s top oil producing nation and output hit a post Soviet high of an average 10 58 million barrels per day bpd last year But the country needs to explore new areas such as the Arctic or for shale oil because its resources in Western Siberia Russia s main oil producing region are depleting PLATFORM SEARCH Rosneft was using the West Alpha platform owned by Seadrill subsidiary North Atlantic Drilling N NADL in the Kara Sea The rig returned to Norway in mid October after completing the well in the Kara Sea in late September The rig is on contract with Exxon until July 2016 Due to severe weather conditions drilling in the Kara Sea can only be conducted during a couple of months a year The Universitetskaya 1 well is Russia s second offshore Arctic project after Prirazlomnoye operated by Gazprom Neft MM SIBN The first source said roughly a year and a half was needed to adjust the Kara Sea project for a new platform so in order to start drilling in July August next year Rosneft would need to start looking for a platform now We expect to decide on the platform by April May and will launch the tender soon The choice is obvious there are a lot of platforms in the East in China or South Korea maybe from North Atlantic Drilling maybe from Lukoil MM LKOH in the Baltics he said There are a lot of platforms and this is not a problem even if it is not an ice proof it can always be upgraded After oil prices have fallen it is two times cheaper to lease platforms and supply vessels Western sanctions prevent Western firms from helping certain Russian companies including Rosneft to explore in the Arctic in deep water or for shale oil among other restrictions
Valery Nesterov an analyst with Sberbank CIB said the main challenge would not be to find a proper platform but to address the safety of operations in an area where Russia lacks expertise |
XOM | Exxon Mobil Q4 EPS 1 56 vs expectations of 1 34 | Investing com The world s largest oil and gas company Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings ahead of Monday s opening bell sending its shares higher in pre market trade
Exxon said earnings per share came in at 1 56 above expectations for earnings of 1 34 per share
The company s fourth quarter revenue totaled 87 27 billion below forecasts for sales of 87 58 billion
Current period results were favorably impacted by approximately 1 billion of non cash effects that included U S deferred income tax items and the recognition of a favorable arbitration ruling for expropriated Venezuela assets
Capital and exploration expenditures were 10 5 billion up 5 from the fourth quarter of 2013 Oil equivalent production decreased 3 8 from the same period a year earlier
Following the release of the report Exxon Mobil shares rose 1 25 in pre market trade
Meanwhile the outlook for U S equity markets was upbeat The Dow futures indicated a gain of 0 2 at the open the S P 500 futures pointed to a rise of 0 2 while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0 1 |
XOM | Exxon quarterly profit lower share buyback cut | Reuters Exxon Mobil Corp said on Monday its quarterly profit fell 21 percent as weak oil prices took a toll but results topped Wall Street expectations due to tax benefits and a favorable arbitration ruling Global oil markets are over supplied at a time when demand is waning a situation that has caused crude prices to tumble by more than half since June During the quarter the average price for benchmark Brent fell 30 percent from a year earlier Exxon also said it will reduce its share buyback program in the first quarter by more than half to 1 billion In the fourth quarter Exxon spent 3 billion on share repurchases Profit in the fourth quarter fell to 6 57 billion or 1 56 per share from 8 35 billion or 1 91 per share in the same quarter a year earlier Analysts on average expected a profit of 1 34 per share according to Thomson Reuters I B E S Earnings were helped by about 1 billion in items that included deferrals on income tax and a favorable arbitration ruling for expropriated assets in Venezuela Exxon said I think the quality of the earnings beat is questionable said Brian Youngberg an oil analyst at Edward Jones in St Louis Some net tax effects and Venezuela really drove the beat They remain growth challenged Oil and natural gas production fell 3 8 percent according to Irving Texas based Exxon
Shares initially rallied as much as 3 percent in premarket trading then edged slightly lower to be nearly unchanged from Friday s New York Stock Exchange close of 87 42 |
XOM | Exxon Mobil More Downside In The Cards | Traders and investors should note the major integrated energy stocks have been coming under selling pressure lately The leading integrated energy stock in the market is Exxon Mobil Corp NYSE XOM This market leading energy stock has now formed a weekly chart bear flag pattern Bear flags are a very significant pattern to the technical trader who utilizes charts When read and recognized properly this pattern can present a great opportunity to profit from the downside move of the instrument
Yesterday XOM stock sold off by 1 49 to 97 77 The downside target on the stock is around the 94 00 level Therefore it has more downside in the cards This potential target area was a spot where the stock was defended in March 2014 Often prior pivots will be support for stocks when they are retested Watch this chart closely as it is setting up for another great and easy trade |
XOM | China s Next Energy Boom | China has a massive problem
In an effort to reduce pollution the country is slowing its Crude Oil consumption and switching to Natural Gasinstead
But if the current trend holds China will be forced to pay a heavy price for its new found environmental conscience
Why Simple supply and demand
China s natural gas production has fallen well short of its projections And consumption is far exceeding its production rate
Needless to say that s a recipe for energy disaster for China at least
It means the country will need to import more natural gas
But this huge new energy boom from one of the world s largest energy consumers will create a whole new environment for the natural gas industry
And suppliers are clamoring for a slice of this very lucrative pie
China s Natural Gas Drive Hits a Speed Bump
I may have stretched the truth a bit when I said that China has grown a more environmentally friendly conscience
China actually has very little choice but to switch over to natural gas as a major fuel source
Pollution from fossil fuels mostly from its primary energy source coal is out of control Each time I visit the country it seems the air quality has degraded even more
For example the recent Shanghai Marathon took place just one day before the air quality level was described as life threatening
China has its public image to worry about and statistics like that are highly damaging
In addition quality of life concerns and rising costs from pollution related illnesses are forcing the government to make the shift to natural gas
This transition won t occur overnight but China s ability to provide its own natural gas isn t panning out the way the country expected
China s Supply Demand Gap is Swelling
China s natural gas reserves aren t the problem here The country boasts vast amounts of the stuff underground
However it still doesn t have the ability to fully extract these reserves due to inadequate technology and the location of the reserves Plus China s pipeline infrastructure is weak
On top of that the supply demand gap continues to grow
Last year Chinese natural gas consumption hit five trillion cubic feet Tcf But the country only produced 3 3 Tcf to replenish supplies
What s more an Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM study says China s natural gas consumption will almost triple this decade to 14 Tcf
By 2020 it s estimated that natural gas will provide 10 of all the energy used in China But there s a massive shortfall on the horizon
Some of that will be made up from more internal and offshore production But the majority of it will have to come from imports
And that s where the opportunity lies
Russia and Australia in the Box Seat
China s vast quantities of natural gas imports will come through both pipelines and in the form of liquefied natural gas LNG
There s a beneficiary in each area here
Pipeline The major winner will be Russia s Gazprom OTC OGZPY The company recently inked a 400 billion 30 year deal to supply China with 1 3 Tcf of natural gas per year beginning in 2019 Initially the gas will come from Gazprom s prolific fields in Siberia Construction of the Power of Siberia pipeline began on September 1 and the pipeline is expected to cover some 2 500 miles including a distribution point on China s northern border
LNG Supplier On this side of supply the logical choices are companies close to China that have LNG operations already up and running That means the Chinese will likely deal with the Australians The top play will be Woodside Petroleum ASX WPL which has significant operations on Australia s West Coast In addition after investing over 200 billion in LNG operations over the past few years Australia is expected to unseat the current LNG leader Qatar in the next three years
And the chase continues
BY Karim Rahemtulla |
XOM | Energy Stocks May Be Ready To Surge | The United States Oil Fund NYSE USO made a fresh low Wednesday then tagged an important support level on the charts Meanwhile Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM was looking at a higher low on the daily chart an important milestone as it tells us that energy stocks which have been down quite bit over the past 6 weeks could see a good bounce higher from current levels We have entered some select energy stocks and will enter more over the coming days when the best trades present themselves |
XOM | Will One Company s Liquids Gamble Pay Off | As a major dry gas producer Encana NYSE ECA has suffered for years under the weight of low margin natural gas
In the process its peers sprinted forward by drilling for liquids Well the company made a dramatic switch and has completely refocused its operations squarely on oil and gas liquids It s been selling and buying like mad and it has now become one of the top players in the space
But is this a foolhardy act
The oil and gas sectors have been churned up recently and jumping headfirst into a new market may not be the safest move So readers should be hyper critical of this company before investing
Setting Up the Shale Hand
In June Encana spent over 3 billion acquiring land assets and wells in the Eagle Ford shale formation Last week it announced the purchase of Athlon Energy for 6 billion This week it announced a major asset sale turning its Clearwater assets in Alberta over to Ember Resource for C 605 million
And just a few days ago Encana said that it divested a major asset in Alberta Bighorn for around 1 8 billion
Now Encana is not fully ridding itself of dry gas it still has major holdings But they pale in comparison to the four major liquids plays that it now owns Two of its new plays are in Canada Duvernay and Montney They re both liquid and condensate plays that are considered to be among the best in North America The others are in Texas specifically in the Eagle Ford and Permian basins Those are considered the two top plays in the United States for oil with natural gas liquids as by products
On top of that the newly acquired Athlon Energy is a major player in the Permian Basin Encana paid a 25 premium to Athlon s share price and the 58 50 offer was almost three times its 2013 initial public offering price
Based on current production that means Encana paid around 200 000 per barrel of oil However it estimates that there are more than three billion barrels of oil sitting under the land it bought bringing the per barrel costs down to the single digits if things go as planned From Encana s point of view this shift was a no brainer It estimates that the liquids space will produce a net back margin of 55 per barrel of oil equivalent from its acquisitions versus around 20 per barrel of oil from its dispositions That s quite a trade off
But here s the problem
A Dangerous Gamble
Encana s assumptions are based on the prices of oil being 10 and natural gas being 15 higher than where they are today
With the recent developments in Saudi Arabia and the continued increase of U S oil production the prices that we re seeing even today under 90 per barrel may seem a little high going forward Of course oil and gas insiders are also looking at longer term trends when they make these types of major acquisitions
But if you think they have access to information that we don t then you re wrong Ask Exxon NYSE XOM how its at the top of the natural gas market worked out Hint not well
Encana is certainly sitting on some of the best quality assets in North America and a lot of them With all of its new assets Encana is now considered a major producer If the oil and gas market turns it could be a steal at current depressed levels The company has a great balance sheet and a strong cash flow But what it doesn t have is the ability to accurately forecast where the price of the commodities that it produces will be in the next five or 10 years As a natural gas player it learned that it was in the wrong place at the wrong time
Now only time will tell if it made the same mistake again by buying into the shale plays at a time when oil production looks to be creating a glut
And the chase continues
BY Karim Rahemtulla |
TEVA | Teva Stock Is Still Cheap Q4 Earnings Should Show Turnaround Progress | Reports Q4 2018 results on Wednesday Feb 13 after the market close
Revenue Expectation 4 53 billion
EPS Expectation 0 54
Teva Pharmaceutical NYSE TEVA is showing great momentum this year Its shares are up about 25 percent so far in 2019 more than 5x the levels the benchmark S P 500 is up
Teva is trying to recover from a three year slump that sent its shares tumbling as the company invested heavily to grow its copycat medicines business
That happened at a time when margins began to shrink in the U S amid fierce competition from other producers The biggest setback came when Teva lost its monopoly on Copaxone a blockbuster multiple sclerosis injection that generated half of the company s profits at one point
The challenges for the Israel based generic drug giant are enormous It has to reduce its massive debt load at a time when generic drug prices are falling in the key U S market and new competition for its top selling multiple sclerosis drug is intensifying
But we believe Teva s restructuring program is getting into shape and 2019 will be the year when investors will see it begin to pay off
In the third quarter CEO Kare Schultz who has occupied the top slot for more than year now showed that he is making a solid progress on reducing the company s leverage and cutting costs Net borrowings which peaked in 2016 at around 35 billion have fallen below 30 billion
Sales of MS drug Copaxone fell after new competitors emerged but new product launches like migraine treatment Ajovy will bring in new revenue stream in the next two to three years
Ajovy won U S regulatory approval in September More than 36 million people suffer from these debilitating episodes and the medicine could generate around 500 million of sales by 2022 according to analysts estimates
Despite these positive signs a complete turnaround won t show in the numbers yet Teva is forecast to report sales down more than 17 percent in the most recent quarter with earnings per share shrinking to 0 54 from 0 93 in the year ago period
Bottom Line
Teva is a good turnaround situation for value investors
Despite its powerful rally in 2019 the stock is still quite cheap with a forward price to earnings multiple of about 6 9 If the company s deleveraging and cost cutting continues and new experimental drugs such as a non opioid pain treatment prove successful we could see Teva s sales growth revive sooner rather than later
Teva isn t fully out of the woods but for contrarian investors the time to take a chance is now when the stock is cheap |
TEVA | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd TEVA Stock Sinks As Market Gains What You Should Know | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd NYSE TEVA closed the most recent trading day at 19 70 moving 0 76 from the previous trading session This move lagged the S P 500 s daily gain of 0 09 Elsewhere the Dow gained 0 26 while the tech heavy Nasdaq lost 0 25
Coming into today shares of the company had gained 20 38 in the past month In that same time the Medical sector gained 5 59 while the S P 500 gained 7 92
TEVA will be looking to display strength as it nears its next earnings release which is expected to be February 13 2019 The company is expected to report EPS of 0 55 down 40 86 from the prior year quarter Meanwhile the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of 4 54 billion down 16 92 from the year ago period
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for TEVA should also be noted by investors These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short term business trends As such positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the company s business and profitability
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near term stock prices We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear actionable rating model
The Zacks Rank system ranges from 1 Strong Buy to 5 Strong Sell It has a remarkable outside audited track record of success with 1 stocks delivering an average annual return of 25 since 1988 Within the past 30 days our consensus EPS projection has moved 0 42 lower TEVA is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of 3 Hold
Digging into valuation TEVA currently has a Forward P E ratio of 7 1 Its industry sports an average Forward P E of 9 82 so we one might conclude that TEVA is trading at a discount comparatively
It is also worth noting that TEVA currently has a PEG ratio of 6 04 This metric is used similarly to the famous P E ratio but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock s expected earnings growth rate TEVA s industry had an average PEG ratio of 1 22 as of yesterday s close
The Medical Generic Drugs industry is part of the Medical sector This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 156 putting it in the bottom 39 of all 250 industries
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups Our research shows that the top 50 rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1
Be sure to follow all of these stock moving metrics and many more on Zacks com |
TEVA | Why The Earnings Surprise Streak Could Continue For Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd TEVA | If you are looking for a stock that has a solid history of beating earnings estimates and is in a good position to maintain the trend in its next quarterly report you should consider Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd NYSE TEVA This company which is in the Zacks Medical Generic Drugs industry shows potential for another earnings beat
This company has an established record of topping earnings estimates especially when looking at the previous two reports The company boasts an average surprise for the past two quarters of 20 03
For the last reported quarter Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd Came out with earnings of 0 68 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 0 55 per share representing a surprise of 23 64 For the previous quarter the company was expected to post earnings of 0 67 per share and it actually produced earnings of 0 78 per share delivering a surprise of 16 42
Price and EPS Surprise
For Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd Estimates have been trending higher thanks in part to this earnings surprise history And when you look at the stock s positive Zacks Earnings ESP Expected Surprise Prediction it s a great indicator of a future earnings beat especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank
Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 3 Hold or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70 of the time In other words if you have 10 stocks with this combination the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd Currently has an Earnings ESP of 0 50 which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company s earnings prospects This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock s Zacks Rank 3 Hold indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner We expect the company s next earnings report to be released on February 13 2019
When the Earnings ESP comes up negative investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric But a negative value is not indicative of a stock s earnings miss
Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher On the other hand some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate
Because of this it s really important to check a company s Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they ve reported |
TEVA | Israel stocks lower at close of trade TA 35 down 0 91 | Investing com Israel stocks were lower after the close on Wednesday as losses in the Real Estate Technology and Communication sectors led shares lower
At the close in Tel Aviv the TA 35 declined 0 91
The best performers of the session on the TA 35 were Bezeq Israeli Telecommunication Corp Ltd TA BEZQ which rose 2 33 or 14 0 points to trade at 615 0 at the close Meanwhile Delek Group TA DLEKG added 1 88 or 1600 points to end at 86890 and Airport City Ltd TA ARPT was up 0 48 or 24 points to 5058 in late trade
The worst performers of the session were Teva TA TEVA which fell 3 86 or 450 points to trade at 11210 at the close Partner TA PTNR declined 2 67 or 50 points to end at 1825 and Melisron TA MLSR was down 2 64 or 530 points to 19570
Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange by 320 to 94 and 88 ended unchanged
Crude oil for June delivery was up 0 99 or 0 48 to 49 14 a barrel Elsewhere in commodities trading Brent oil for delivery in July rose 1 20 or 0 62 to hit 52 27 a barrel while the June Gold Futures contract rose 1 89 or 23 42 to trade at 1259 82 a troy ounce
USD ILS was down 0 01 to 3 6104 while EUR ILS rose 0 59 to 4 0251
The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0 66 at 97 45 |
TEVA | Teva Pharm search committee recommends foreigner for CEO report | TEL AVIV Reuters Teva Pharmaceutical NYSE TEVA Industries TA TEVA search for a new chief executive has resulted in the selection of a foreigner as the leading candidate Israeli financial news website Calcalist said on Thursday Separately three candidates are vying for the position of chief financial officer CFO at Israel s biggest company Israeli members of the board of directors are demanding that an Israeli be appointed CFO if the CEO is a foreigner Calcalist said Teva was left without a permanent CEO in February after Erez Vigodman stepped down leaving new management to try to restore confidence in the world s biggest generic drugmaker after a series of missteps CFO Eyal Desheh also said he was resigning at the end of June Officials at Teva were not immediately available for comment On a call with analysts a week ago Chairman Sol Barer said a number of excellent candidates had been interviewed for the CEO post The board will take the time it needs to find the best candidate but I am pleased with progress we have made he said
When asked whether Teva might waive its requirement for the CEO to be based in Israel he said We are looking around the world for the best candidate We are committed once we find that candidate to do what it takes to bring that candidate to Teva |
TEVA | Israel stocks lower at close of trade TA 35 down 0 53 | Investing com Israel stocks were lower after the close on Thursday as losses in the Communication Insurance and Technology sectors led shares lower
At the close in Tel Aviv the TA 35 lost 0 53
The best performers of the session on the TA 35 were Azrieli Group Ltd TA AZRG which rose 2 71 or 550 points to trade at 20850 at the close Meanwhile Frutarom TA FRUT added 1 60 or 350 points to end at 22200 and Mizrahi Tefahot TA MZTF was up 1 58 or 98 points to 6318 in late trade
The worst performers of the session were Teva TA TEVA which fell 4 28 or 480 points to trade at 10730 at the close Perrigo TA PRGO declined 2 94 or 780 points to end at 25740 and Partner TA PTNR was down 2 85 or 52 points to 1773
Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange by 324 to 86 and 92 ended unchanged
Shares in Teva TA TEVA fell to 5 year lows down 4 28 or 480 to 10730
Crude oil for June delivery was up 0 33 or 0 16 to 49 23 a barrel Elsewhere in commodities trading Brent oil for delivery in July rose 0 34 or 0 18 to hit 52 39 a barrel while the June Gold Futures contract fell 0 45 or 5 66 to trade at 1253 04 a troy ounce
USD ILS was down 0 33 to 3 5985 while EUR ILS fell 0 74 to 4 0041
The US Dollar Index Futures was up 0 17 at 97 51 |
TEVA | Teva s fremanezumab successful in late stage migraine study U S marketing application expected this year shares up 1 | A Phase 3 clinical trial HALO assessing Teva Pharmaceutical Industries TEVA 0 5 fremanezumab for the prevention of migraine met all primary and secondary endpoints Patients treated with the monoclonal antibody experienced a statistically significant reduction in the number of monthly headache days of a least moderate severity compared to placebo over a 12 week treatment period Top line results from HALO in episodic migraine will be reported in the next few weeks The company says it plans to file a Biologics License Application BLA with the FDA this year Now read |
TEVA | Teva s migraine candidate fremanezumab successful in second late stage study shares ahead 1 premarket | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries NYSE TEVA is up 1 premarket on light volume in response to its announcement of positive results in a second Phase 3 study HALO assessing fremanezumab TEV 48125 for the prevention of migraine Fremanezumab administered once month showed superiority to placebo as measured by change from baseline in average migraine days per month number of days with disability and medication consumed All endpoints are achieved and were highly statistically significant More detailed results will be submitted for presentation at future medical conferences and for publication A U S marketing application is planned for later this year with approval expected in H2 2018 Previously Teva s fremanezumab successful in late stage migraine study U S marketing application expected this year shares up 1 May 31 Now read |
TEVA | Teva to nominate new directors | In the latest step toward remaking the company Teva Pharmaceutical NYSE TEVA will seek to overhaul its board by nominating four new directors Among their first orders of business would be picking a new chief executive We are evolving the board to meet new challenges both within Teva and the business of generic drugs aid Sol Barer the board s chairman Now read |
TEVA | Teva launches generic eye drop Pataday in U S | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries NYSE TEVA commences the commercial launch of its generic version of Novartis Pataday olopatadine hydrochloride ophthalmic solution 0 2 in the U S for the treatment of ocular itching associated with allergic conjunctivitis According to IMS Health the U S market is 303M Now read |
XOM | Wall Street up more than 1 percent boosted by jobs data Fed | By Caroline Valetkevitch NEW YORK Reuters U S stocks rebounded on Wednesday from five straight sessions of losses after strong private sector jobs data and as minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting reassured investors the bank was in no hurry to start raising interest rates The S P 500 rose 1 2 percent its biggest daily percentage gain since Dec 18 retracing some of its 4 2 percent loss over the previous five sessions tied to concerns about plunging oil prices and global economic weakness According to minutes of the Fed s December meeting the central bank pressed ahead with plans to begin raising interest rates later this year although Fed officials said they could be patient in deciding when to begin the process The U S continues to be the strongest region in the globe right now and I think markets are comforted that rates aren t going to be going up anytime soon said Bob Landry portfolio manager at USAA Investment Management Co in San Antonio Texas Stocks began the day in positive territory after data showed U S private employers added more jobs last month than expected The news came ahead of Friday s more widely watched U S non farm payrolls report for December Oil prices also bounced back snapping a four day losing streak Exxon Mobil Corp NYSE XOM shares rose 1 percent to 90 72 Adding to the upbeat tone some investors are betting the first negative inflation in the euro zone since 2009 will trigger a long awaited move by the European Central Bank to begin printing money The Dow Jones Industrial average rose 212 88 points or 1 23 percent to 17 584 52 the S P 500 gained 23 29 points or 1 16 percent to 2 025 9 and the Nasdaq Composite added 57 73 points or 1 26 percent to 4 650 47 Retailer shares jumped J C Penney shares surged 20 3 percent to 7 89 a day after the department store operator said same store sales rose 3 7 percent in November and December December same store sales figures are due this week from more than 60 companies The S P retail index gained 2 1 percent Shares of Dick s Sporting Goods Inc jumped 11 7 percent to 55 01 People familiar with the matter said the company is holding early stage conversations with a handful of buyout firms about going private Housing shares were also among the day s biggest gainers up 2 3 percent Bloomberg reported U S President Barack Obama was set to announce a reduction of Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance premiums D R Horton shares rose 5 1 percent to 25 35 Biotech shares also bounced back with the Nasdaq Biotech Index jumping 3 6 percent after falling 1 7 percent in the previous session About 7 1 billion shares changed hands on U S exchanges above the 6 2 billion average for the last five sessions according to BATS Global Markets NYSE advancers outnumbered decliners 2 355 to 737 for a 3 20 to 1 ratio on the Nasdaq 1 858 issues rose and 876 fell for a 2 12 to 1 ratio
The S P 500 posted 29 new 52 week highs and 12 new lows The Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 65 new lows |
XOM | As oil plummets how much pain still looms for U S energy firms | By Edward McAllister and David Randall NEW YORK Reuters With nearly a quarter of U S energy shares value wiped out by oil s six month slide investors are wondering if the sector has taken enough punishment and whether it is time to pile back in ahead of earnings reports later this month The broad energy S P 1500 index gained more than 4 percent over the past month suggesting many believe markets have already factored in the pain caused by oil prices tumbling by more than half since June below 50 a barrel Yet since the start of this year most energy stocks have given up some of those gains revealing anxiety that some nasty surprises might still be lurking somewhere and that last month s bounce may not last A closer look at valuations and interviews with a dozen of smaller firms ahead of fourth quarter results from their bigger listed rivals shows there are reasons to be nervous What small firms say is that the oil rout hit home faster and harder than most had expected Things have changed a lot quicker than I thought they would says Greg Doramus sales manager at Orion Drilling in Corpus Christi Texas a small firm which leases 16 drilling rigs He talks about falling rates last minute order cancellations and customers breaking leases The conventional wisdom is that hedging and long term contracts would ensure that most energy firms would only start feeling the full force of the downdraft this year The view from the oil fields from Texas to North Dakota is that the pain is already spreading We have been cut from the work says Adam Marriott president of Fandango Logistics a small oil trucking firm in Salt Lake City He says shipments have fallen by half since June when oil was fetching more than 100 a barrel and his company had all the business it could handle Bigger firms are also feeling the sting Last week a leading U S drilling contractor Helmerich Payne reported that leasing rates for its high tech rigs plunged 10 percent from the previous quarter sending its shares 5 percent lower DOWNGRADES AND RALLIES The apparent disconnect between energy stocks recent recovery and the furious cuts in Wall Street s earning estimates could also be a sign that the sector s 24 percent plunge since June may not fully reflect how ugly it can still get Thomson Reuters data shows Wall Street brokerages slashed their fourth quarter estimates for energy firms by over 7 percent in the past 30 days They now predict earnings of S P 500 energy firms to fall 20 7 percent in the fourth quarter and by 36 1 percent this quarter The price to earnings ratio based on estimates for the next 12 months for S P 500 energy stocks is around 17 more than 16 3 for the whole S P 500 index and above the sector s 12 5 figure based on reported results according to Thomson Reuters data This suggests that either investors bet on a rebound in oil analysts do not see or they risk getting disappointed when the results come out Yet several stocks have rallied in the past month One striking example is Penn Virginia Corp an exploration and production company which soared by nearly 30 percent even as analysts cut their estimates by more than a third Short interest of nearly 30 percent suggests the rally might be in part fueled by a short squeeze when sellers are forced to buy back the stock when it starts rising to cut their losses Some analysts say though many stocks have been sold off enough to offer good value If you have no exposure this is a good time to step in Scott Wren senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors said at the start of this year Analysts who advocate buying energy stocks recommend big high dividend paying companies such as Exxon Mobil or Chevron Both stocks have outperformed the sector during the six month rout in which companies such as Chesapeake Energy or Halliburton lost a third or more of their value Smaller firms are considered more risky among them oilfield service companies exposed to spending cuts by exploration and production companies Analysts expect this year s budgets to fall by a quarter but many firms have yet to finalize plans RISKS AND SAFE BETS Investors got a taste how bets on the worst might be over scenario could go bad last month when Civeo Corp a provider of temporary housing for the oil industry issued a profit warning The stock has struggled since oil headed south but investors were still shocked how hard the company got hit sending its shares crashing by more than 50 percent in one day For sure not all energy firms are equal Civeo represents scores of companies whose fortunes are tied to the shale oil boom that made the United States the world s top producer but also helped create a global supply glut that sent prices tumbling In such a market the safest bets are pipeline companies like Kinder Morgan Inc whose shares have risen more than 16 percent in the last six months Their business depends on traffic volumes much like toll roads and the U S government still forecasts production to rise this year Independent refiners and integrated oil majors such as Exxon Mobil that combine exploration with production refining and distribution are also expected to brave the storm fairly well Industry experts say larger efficient and financially sound producers and services firms may also emerge as winners taking over weaker rivals or gaining market share Good companies with bad balance sheets with productive properties those are going to be targets said Mark Chesen a managing director of SSW Capital Advisors a Pennsylvania based investment bank that specializes in distressed mid cap firms But while hedge funds buy out firm private equity and distressed debt investors gear up for 2015 as a year of energy deals Chesen said they were likely to wait first for signs of oil prices stabilizing Until bottoming out I don t think institutional hedge funds will be interested he said People need to see three to six months of stability a minimum of three months
This story has been refiled to correct Kinder Morgan instrument code in paragraph 24 |
MRO | Change Of Character For Marathon Oil | Marathon Oil MRO is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production business the stock is a member of the S P 500 and it has been one of the worst performing stocks in the index in the last 3 months However a possible character change might be taking place in the stock As you can see clearly from the chart below the 20 day moving average has been a key moving average for this stock The stock tends to trend above or below the 20 day for decent periods of time It had a decent move higher above its 20 day from December 2011 until March 2012 then it had a smooth ride down below the 20 day moving average from mid March until just this past week And therein lies the possible change of character In a situation like this I like to nibble on the long side above the 20 day with a stop on any close below the 20 day Disclosure The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog please see my page for my full disclaimer |
MRO | Northern Tier Energy LP NTI IPO Report | Based in Ridgefield CT Northern Tier Energy LP NTI scheduled a 326 million IPO with a market capitalization of 1 8 billion at a price range mid point of 20 for Thursday July 26 2012 NTI is an independent downstream energy company with refining retail and pipeline operations CONCLUSIONAvoid the NTI IPO see concerns below S 1 UNDERWRITERSManager Joint Managers Goldman Barclays BofA Merrill LynchCo Managers Credit Suisse Deutsche UBS J P Morgan Macquarie CapitalSUMMARYNTI is an independent downstream energy company with refining retail and pipeline operations that serves the of the United States NTI is a carve out from Marathon Oil MRO market capitalization of 19 billion The deal happened in 2010 and was engineered by Goldman Sachs The petroleum industry is usually divided into three major components Upstream midstream and downstream Midstream operations are usually included in the downstream category CONCLUSIONAvoid the NTI IPO see concerns below CONCERNS 1 20 of the outstanding stock is paid in kind to senior management and the Worse NTI s partnership authorizes NTI to issue an unlimited number of additional units including PIK units 2 NTI incurred a 92 million recent derivative loss and NTI wants to re compensate the loss through the IPO proceeds NTI will pay 92 million to J Aron Company an affiliate of Goldman Sachs Co for losses incurred during the three months ended June 30 2012 as a result of resetting the price of certain derivative contracts That s reason enough to avoid the NTI IPO 3 Also there is no expected payout although NTI does forecast generating 245 million in cash from operations for the 12 months ended June 30 2013 If all the 245 million were paid out the return at the price range mid point would be 13 but don t count on it for at least three reasons See Proposed Pipeline Initiative below this could eat up a lot of cash 85 million liability to be recorded post IPO See CONTINGENT CONSIDERATION ARRANGEMENT below Profit margins appear to be temporarily high and NTI s cash flow forecast therefor might be unduly optimistic More recently during the second quarter of 2012 the discount to which NYMEX WTI trades relative to Brent has narrowed due to a number of factors including recently announced changes in the pipeline infrastructure serving Cushing Oklahoma The narrowing of this margin may affect the prices at which we sell our refined products relative to our cost of crude oil and may therefore cause a reduction in our refining margins S 1 page 95 4 Compared to mid stream partnerships downstream is usually NTI appears overvalued in terms of price to book and NTI doesn t commit to a distribution payout range Unlike most publicly traded partnerships we will not have a minimum quarterly distribution or employ structures intended to consistently maintain or increase quarterly distributions over time HISTORYNTI commenced operations in December 2010 through the acquisition of the St Paul Park Minnesota refinery a 17 interest in the Minnesota Pipe Line Company and in MPL Investments convenience stores and related assets from Marathon MRO for 554 million which included cash and the issuance to Marathon of 80 million of a noncontrolling preferred membership interest in NTI s parent Northern Tier Holdings Marathon Oil MRO has a market capitalization of 19 billion Northern Tier Energy Inc was incorporated in October 2011 Northern Tier Energy Inc was converted into Northern Tier Energy LP in June 2012 BUSINESSNTI is an independent downstream energy company with refining retail and pipeline operations that serve the PADD II region of the United States The business is operated in two business segments the refining business and the retail business Refining BusinessThe refining business primarily consists of a 74 000 bpd 84 500 barrels per stream day refinery located in St Paul Park Minnesota NTI s refining business also includes a 17 interest in the Minnesota Pipe Line Company and MPL Investments which owns and operates the Minnesota Pipeline a 455 000 bpd crude oil pipeline system that transports crude oil primarily from Western Canada and North Dakota for approximately 300 miles from the Enbridge pipeline hub at Clearbrook Minnesota to NTI s refinery The Minnesota Pipeline has historically transported the majority of the crude oil used and processed in NTI s refinery Retail BusinessThe retail business operated 166 convenience stores under the SuperAmerica brand and also supported 67 franchised convenience stores which are also operated under the SuperAmerica brand These convenience stores are located primarily in Minnesota and Wisconsin NTI s refinery supplied substantially all of the gasoline and diesel sold in NTI s company operated and franchised convenience stores for the three months ended March 31 2012 and the year ended December 31 2011 MARGINS NARROWINGDuring the second quarter of 2012 the discount to which NYMEX WTI trades relative to Brent has narrowed due to a number of factors including recently announced changes in the pipeline infrastructure serving Cushing Oklahoma The narrowing of this margin may affect the prices at which NTI sells refined products relative to NTI s cost of crude oil and may therefore cause a reduction in our refining margins PROPOSED PIPELINE INITIATIVEOn June 22 2012 consistent with NTI s strategy to optimize its crude oil supply and sourcing advantage NTI entered into an exclusivity agreement with Saddle Butte Pipeline LLC Saddle Butte and its wholly owned subsidiary High Prairie Pipeline LLC High Prairie This agreement sets forth a proposed non binding shipping commitment and equity investment by NTI in a 150 000 bpd pipeline spanning from McKenzie County North Dakota to Clearbrook Minnesota The pipeline will be constructed and maintained by High Prairie NTI sproposed commitment contemplates a ten year 50 000 bpd shipping commitment on the High Prairie pipeline at a tariff of 2 49 per barrel or as otherwise approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission FERC and an equity investment in High Prairie proportional to NTI s throughput commitment as a percentage of total commitments on the High Prairie pipeline Saddle Butte and High Prairie have granted certain exclusivity rights to NTI with respect to the High Prairie Pipeline project Upon satisfaction of certain conditions we have agreed to grant exclusivity rights to Saddle Butte and High Prairie during the negotiation of definitive agreements There can be no assurance that definitive agreements with Saddle Butte and High Prairie will be reached regarding the proposed shipping commitment and equity investment IPOdesktop note the above pipeline deal could very well consume cash which would limit NTI s short term cash payout CONTINGENT CONSIDERATION ARRANGEMENT CREATES UNCERTAINTYIn connection with the Marathon Acquisition NTI entered into a contingent consideration arrangement with Marathon This arrangement would have required earn out payments if NTI s annual consolidated EBITDA adjusted for certain agreed items exceeded 165 million during any year in each of the eight years following the Marathon Acquisition Specifically NTI would have been required to pay Marathon 40 of the amount by which the Agreement Adjusted EBITDA exceeded 165 million subject to certain reductions in any year in the eight years following the Marathon Acquisition Total payments to Marathon under this agreement could not have exceeded 125 million over the eight years following the Marathon Acquisition Conversely Marathon would have been required to make margin support payments to NTI of up to 30 million per year if the Agreement Adjusted EBITDA was less than 145 million subject to certain reductions in either of the twelve month periods ending November 30 2011 and 2012 Disputed paymentsAs of December 31 2011 NTI recorded a receivable of 30 million relating to the margin support component of the contingent consideration arrangement for the twelve months ended November 30 2011 Marathon disputed 12 million of this amount In connection with the resolution of this dispute NTI entered into a settlement agreement with Marathon on May 4 2012 Under the terms of this settlement agreement Marathon will receive 40 million of the net proceeds from this offering and Northern Tier Holdings will redeem Marathon s existing preferred interest with a portion of the net proceeds from this offering and issue Marathon a new 45 million preferred interest in Northern Tier Holdings in consideration for relinquishing all claims with respect to earn out payments under the contingent consideration agreement At March 31 2012 in addition to the 30 million receivable discussed above NTI recorded at fair value an asset of 2 8 million related to the margin support component for the twelve months ended November 30 2012 and a liability of 79 2 million related to the earn out component Upon the consummation of this offering NTI will reverse any amounts recorded for the margin support and earn out arrangements and record a liability of 85 million DISTRIBUTION POLICYUnlike most publicly traded partnerships NTI will not have a minimum quarterly distribution or employ structures intended to consistently maintain or increase distributions over timeNTI s quarterly distributions if any will not be stable and will vary from quarter to quarter and year to year as a direct result of variations The board of directors of NTI s general partner will adopt a policy pursuant to which distributions for each quarter including the distributions of additional PIK payment in kind units on outstanding PIK units will equal the amount of available cash NTI generate in such quarter basis USE OF PROCEEDSNTI expects to receive 288 million from its IPO The IPO money plus 41 million of cash on hand is allocated to the following Redeem 29 million of senior secured notes at a redemption price of 103 of the principal amount thereof for an estimated 30 million Pay 40 million to Marathon which represents the cash component of a settlement agreement entered into with Marathon related to a contingent consideration agreement see above Pay 92 million to J Aron Company an affiliate of Goldman Sachs Co for losses incurred during the three months ended June 30 2012 as a result of resetting the price of certain derivative contracts andDistribute 167 2 million to Northern Tier Holdings of which 92 2 million will be used to redeem Marathon s existing preferred interest in Northern Tier Holdings and 73 1 million will be distributed to ACON Refining and TPG Refining Goldman Sachs related sponsors And 1 9 million will be distributed to entities in which Mario E Rodriguez and Hank Kuchta have an ownership interest |
XOM | Will ExxonMobil Beat Earnings Estimates this Season | The largest publicly traded integrated oil and gas company ExxonMobil Corporation NYSE XOM is set to release its second quarter 2014 results on Jul 31 In the preceding three month period Range Resources delivered a positive earnings surprise of 11 70 the third outperformance in the last 4 quarters buoyed by steeper natural gas prices Let s see how things are shaping up for this announcement Why a Likely Positive Surprise Our proven model shows that ExxonMobil is likely to beat earnings because it has the right combination of two key factors Zacks ESP Earnings ESP which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate is 0 52 This is a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise for this company Zacks Rank ExxonMobil carries a Zacks Rank 2 Buy The stocks with Zacks Ranks of 1 2 and 3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings The Sell rated stocks 4 and 5 should never be considered going into an earnings announcement The combination of ExxonMobil s Zacks Rank 2 Buy and 0 52 ESP make us confident of an earnings beat on Jul 31 What is Driving Better than Expected Earnings We believe that ExxonMobil is the world s best run integrated oil company based on its track record of superior return on capital employed ExxonMobil s strength is in its balanced operations strong financial flexibility and steady improvement in efficiency and cost control The company s efforts to build an unconventional resource portfolio both in North America and overseas are aimed at increasing production through wider exposure to large energy resources with a long reserve life and low field declines The company boasts diversified operations across the world with several new projects coming online through 2013 14 This we feel would lead to higher throughput for the Downstream segment However refining margins were a grey area for the company in the second quarter Our apprehension stems from volatile crack spreads and narrowed crude oil differentials in recent times The saving grace we feel would come from the Upstream segment through higher price realizations Other Stocks to Consider While earnings beat looks uncertain for ExxonMobil here are some energy firms you may want to consider on the basis of our model which shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter Mid Con Energy Partners L P NASDAQ MCEP has an Earnings ESP of 8 89 and holds a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy Newfield Exploration Co NYSE NFX has an Earnings ESP of 1 96 and holds a Zacks Rank 1 Whiting Petroleum Corp NYSE WLL has an Earnings ESP of 3 18 and holds a Zacks Rank 2 |
XOM | Should You Buy Exxon Ahead Of Earnings | Investors are always looking for stocks that are poised to beat at earnings season and Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE XOM may be one such company The firm has earnings coming up pretty soon and events are shaping up quite nicely for their report That is because Exxon Mobil is seeing favorable earnings estimate revision activity as of late which is generally a precursor to an earnings beat After all analysts raising estimates right before earnings with the most up to date information possible is a pretty good indicator of some favorable trends underneath the surface for XOM in this report In fact the Most Accurate Estimate for the current quarter is currently at 1 92 per share for XOM compared to a broader Zacks Consensus Estimate of 1 91 per share This suggests that analysts have very recently bumped up their estimates for XOM giving the stock a Zacks Earnings ESP of 0 52 heading into earnings season Why is this Important A positive reading for the Zacks Earnings ESP has proven to be very powerful in producing both positive surprises and outperforming the market Our recent 10 year backtest shows that stocks that have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 3 Hold or better show a positive surprise nearly 70 of the time and have returned over 28 on average in annual returns Given that XOM has a Zacks Rank 2 Buy and an ESP in positive territory investors might want to consider this stock ahead of earnings Clearly recent earnings estimate revisions suggest that good things are ahead for Exxon Mobil and that a beat might be in the cards for the upcoming report |
XOM | LNG s Future Looks Bleak | Conventional wisdom says that liquefied natural gas LNG is a can t lose proposition
After all Natural Gas is plentiful And liquefying it for transport to countries that are willing to pay through the nose for it seems like a no brainer
Everyone wants in on the game too
When I spoke about natural gas at a conference in Vancouver recently those at the event showed a level of interest in LNG that bordered on obsession
If you ve been following the story as closely as I have however you know that LNG s prospects aren t nearly as rosy as everyone thinks Here s why
The Tightrope Walk of Doom
During the most recent winter season in Asia LNG prices topped 20 per million British thermal units mmbtu causing suppliers to salivate at the prospects for the rest of the year
Fast forward to today though and prices have sunk to 10 per mmbtu That s a 50 haircut thanks to slack demand during the summer and new facilities coming on line
Now traders are parking LNG on tankers sitting idle at ports in the hope of a rebound in prices
What U S investors are failing to realize is that LNG is already up and running in the rest of the world and pricing trends are pointing lower over time not higher
Granted weather events can boost prices As evidenced by the 50 drop in prices during the summer season however weather can send LNG prices crashing just as easily
Making matters worse the trend is towards more LNG production in the coming years not less Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM for instance just started up a new LNG facility in Papua New Guinea which will further add to supply
And if one weather event can cause a near 50 drop in prices an oversupply situation could seriously dent profits in the future
Especially with LNG s major buyers beginning to bow out
Will Prices Take Another Hit
South Korea and Japan are two major Asian buyers of LNG Yet their LNG addiction is waning
Consider South Korea stockpiled LNG while its nuclear plants were offline as a result of a safety scandal The country has since restarted the nuclear plants though which reduces demand for LNG
Japan has been the primary driver of the demand for LNG since the Fukushima disaster shut down its nuclear facilities Yet it has also brought many reactors back on line and a cooler than expected summer has led to less demand as well
As a result many LNG traders are being hit with losses
LNG contracts are usually at fixed prices for the majority of supply about 80 in most cases But the remaining 20 is bought and sold by these countries on the spot market and that s what determines day to day prices for traders and those wishing to buy on the open market
It s the spot market that should really worry investors in LNG companies
The thinking that LNG is somehow less vulnerable to price shocks than any other commodity is misplaced and uncertainty will be part and parcel of this new market as well
Now much like the dry natural gas sector there will be little in the way of supply shortages as many new facilities come on line in the next few years
So the key will be to focus on producers which are able to lock up long term supply contracts at higher prices
For now companies that have already secured and are delivering the product some of which was locked in at higher prices from last year are in the driver s seat BP NYSE BP is one such company
Bottom line The future issues may not lie on the supply side for LNG which is where most of the attention is focused but on the demand side That may have been overstated and the recent price move is a good indication that this business is far from a slam dunk
And the chase continues
BY Karim Rahemtulla |
XOM | CGX Energy s Shares Up 100 Since March | CGX Energy Inc TO OYL holds a 100 working interest in two offshore blocks and a 62 working interest in an onshore concession Image CGX Energy Inc
Since we interviewed CGX Energy sPresident and CEO Dewi Jones in March read Small cap investors should watch CGX Energy Huge potential should they find a farm out partner shares are up nearly 100 as the company continues to get closer to securing a farm out partner for their three shallow offshore oil blocks in the Guyana Suriname oil basin which is one of the world s last frontier basins
We spoke with Mr Jones this afternoon to get an update from him as to what his company has accomplished since we last spoke
In that piece we highlighted the leverage that the story offered investors At the time it was a company with an 8 million enterprise value that held over 3 3 million prime acres of offshore and onshore concessions in the Guyana Suriname basin
CGX is targeting elephants Multi hundred million barrel oil and gas targets
They are in the arena typically only fit for super majors with well costs in excess of 80 million each but with the potential to find 800 million of barrels of recoverable oil worth billions of dollars
In June CGX signed a rig agreement with Japan Drilling Co Ltd for the use of the HAKURYU 12 offshore drill rig as well as a rig sharing agreement for the same platform with INPEX Japan s largest oil and gas E P
This is an important step for a company targeting offshore prospects as these drilling platforms are both very pricey and also hard to come by The fact that CGX was able to secure a rig and are now able to share the costs with INPEX speaks to the team s network in this sector
In a recent news release Mr Jones stated This LOI represents the next step in drilling at our 100 owned Corentyne Block Being a part of the Rig Sharing Group means that CGX Energy will benefit from significantly reduced mobilization and demobilization costs typically associated with offshore drilling The Hakuryu 12 rig is a jack up rig that fits the Company s well design specifications
Shortly after the announcement of the rig agreement CGX they were granted a five month extension to their drilling deadline for the Corentyne block in order to allow the HAKURYU 12 to drill a well in Suriname before making its way to Guyana The company now has until October 31 2015 to drill their well
We will drill it before the deadline Mr Jones told me by phone
In the most recent MD A the company stated we will likely require additional financing and seek to widen our shareholder base but still with a view to negotiating farm out transactions as the primary way to enhance shareholder value
Mr Jones told me that the amount of the financing would be determined by whether or not they find a farm out partner They need the money not only to fund their portion of the drilling costs but also for seismic commitments they currently have on their blocks
As far as finding a farm out partner goes Mr Jones couldn t elaborate much as those discussions are material in nature but did say we are looking for a partner for all three blocks remember Some parties are interested in one or two of the blocks but not necessarily all three Ideally we want someone to come in for all three
He told me the process CGX is going through is standard procedure for any farm out Mr Jones has over a quarter century of experience in international E P s so he is very familiar with the process
With the deadline approaching relatively quickly now just under 14 months away a partner for one or all of the blocks should be secured soon in order to coordinate a 100 million well
Recall CGX is majority owned by Pacific Rubiales PRE TSX and the includes Serafino Iacono Ronald Pantin and Jose Francisco Arata who all founded Pacific Rubiales and helped turn it into the largest non state owned oil company operating in Colombia today PRE produces over 120 000boe d but are in need of new productive fields to fill in the production that is currently coming from the Rubiales field where their partnership with Ecopetrol is set to end by mid 2016
PRE s technical team is currently finishing the re interpretation of the seismic surveys which were recently amalgamated and reprocessed Mr Jones told me they are nearly done and that it was done to reassure the company and potential partners that the large oil targets are there
In terms of what else could be moving the stock higher the Guyana Suriname basin continues to see super majors actively drilling and exploring there with a slew of wells planned over the next few years
Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE XOM and Shell BA RDS are set to drill their Guyana offshore well early next year At least seven high impact offshore wells are planned in the basin over the next 2 years which excludes the recently nine well plan outlined by Staatsolie Suriname s state oil company
With all of the exploration dollars going into such an underexplored basin the impact of any discovery made in the shallow waters there could increase the value of CGX s 3 3 million acres by many many multiples
At the end of the day investing is about risk and rewards
CGX was cheap when we first wrote about it in March and remains cheap today relative to the size of the targets they are going after Given the cost of testing these massive targets the key remains to secure a farm out partner so that the company isn t left solely footing the bill
Here s the chart |
XOM | Exxon Mobil s Weakness Continues Watch These Levels | The leading integrated energy company Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE XOM is trading lower by 0 23 cents to 99 26 a share Exxon Mobil has been very weak since July 31 when it plunged lower on heavy volume Currently the stock is trading below the important 50 day moving average which is a sign of weakness Today day traders should watch for solid intra day support around the 98 65 level an area that was defended on August 15 and should turn out to be good for an intra day bounce in the stock |
TEVA | Regeneron Sanofi Restructure Immuno Oncology Collaboration | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc NASDAQ REGN and partner Sanofi NASDAQ SNY announced that both the companies have restructured their existing global Immuno oncology Discovery and Development Agreement for new immuno oncology cancer treatments
The original agreement which was signed in 2015 is scheduled to end around mid 2020 Hence the companies have revised the agreement and selected two clinical stage bispecific antibody programs for further development
Per the revised agreement Regeneron will retain all rights to its other immuno oncology discovery and development programs Sanofi can advance its early stage immuno oncology pipeline independently
In exchange Sanofi will pay Regeneron 462 million representing the balance of payments due under the existing agreement This payment will cover Sanofi s share of the immuno oncology discovery program costs for the last quarter of 2018 and up to 120 million in development costs for the two selected clinical stage bispecific antibodies plus the termination fee for the other programs under the original immuno oncology agreement
In addition the revised agreement gives Sanofi the right to opt in to the BCMAxCD3 and MUC16xCD3 bispecific programs when proof of concept is achieved or when the allocated funding is expended On the other hand Regeneron will commit up to 70 million to further develop the BCMAxCD3 bispecific antibody for multiple myeloma and up to 50 million to further develop the MUC16xCD3 bispecific for mucin 16 expressing cancers
Assuming Sanofi exercises the right to opt in the company will lead development and commercialization of the BCMAxCD3 bispecific Sanofi will also fund 100 of development costs with Regeneron reimbursing up to 50 out of its share of collaboration profits Both the companies will share global profits equally
Regeneron will lead MUC16xCD3 bispecific development and will be responsible for the commercialization in the United States The companies will share development costs and global profits equally Sanofi will be responsible for commercialization outside the United States
Meanwhile the ongoing collaboration for the development and commercialization of Libtayo cemiplimab rwlc will be unaffected by the revised agreement The FDA has already approved Libtayo for advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma CSCC A regulatory application for Libtayo has also been submitted in the EU The drug is also being evaluated in multiple other cancers including potentially pivotal trials in lung cervical and skin cancers
Regeneron retains full rights to its other immuno oncology programs
We note that Regeneron has a global strategic collaboration with Sanofi for the discovery development and commercialization of fully human monoclonal antibodies Under the agreement Regeneron has exercised the option to co promote Praluent Dupixent and Kevzara in the United States
Regeneron s key growth driver Eylea was co developed with the HealthCare unit of Bayer DE BAYGN AG OTC BAYRY Regeneron has also partnered with Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd NYSE TEVA for the development of fasinumab in patients suffering from chronic pain from osteoarthritis OA of the knee or hip
Regeneron s shares have gained 7 5 in the past six months against a decline of 17 6 for the
Eylea and Dupixent continue to boost performance while the company focuses on developing its pipeline further
Zacks Rank
Regeneron currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold You can see
3 Medical Stocks to Buy Now
The greatest discovery in this century of biology is now at the flashpoint between theory and realization Billions of dollars in research have poured into it Companies are already generating revenue and cures for a variety of deadly diseases are in the pipeline
So are big potential profits for early investors Zacks has released an updated Special Report that explains this breakthrough and names the best 3 stocks to ride it |
TEVA | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd TEVA Gains As Market Dips What You Should Know | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd NYSE TEVA closed the most recent trading day at 18 45 moving 1 54 from the previous trading session This change outpaced the S P 500 s 0 02 loss on the day Meanwhile the Dow lost 0 03 and the Nasdaq a tech heavy index lost 0 21
Coming into today shares of the company had lost 4 47 in the past month In that same time the Medical sector lost 3 97 while the S P 500 lost 1 4
TEVA will be looking to display strength as it nears its next earnings release which is expected to be February 14 2019 In that report analysts expect TEVA to post earnings of 0 56 per share This would mark a year over year decline of 39 78 Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of 4 53 billion down 17 01 from the year ago period
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for TEVA should also be noted by investors These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short term business trends As a result we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company s business outlook
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near term stock prices We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear actionable rating model
Ranging from 1 Strong Buy to 5 Strong Sell the Zacks Rank system has a proven outside audited track record of outperformance with 1 stocks returning an average of 25 annually since 1988 Over the past month the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant TEVA is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of 3 Hold
In terms of valuation TEVA is currently trading at a Forward P E ratio of 6 48 This represents a discount compared to its industry s average Forward P E of 12 15
Also we should mention that TEVA has a PEG ratio of 5 52 This popular metric is similar to the widely known P E ratio with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company s expected earnings growth rate TEVA s industry had an average PEG ratio of 1 03 as of yesterday s close
The Medical Generic Drugs industry is part of the Medical sector This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 43 which puts it in the top 17 of all 250 industries
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups Our research shows that the top 50 rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1
Make sure to utilize Zacks Com to follow all of these stock moving metrics and more in the coming trading sessions |
TEVA | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd TEVA Gains But Lags Market What You Should Know | In the latest trading session Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd NYSE TEVA closed at 18 76 marking a 0 59 move from the previous day This move lagged the S P 500 s daily gain of 0 76 Elsewhere the Dow gained 0 67 while the tech heavy Nasdaq added 0 71
Heading into today shares of the company had gained 14 49 over the past month outpacing the Medical sector s loss of 1 02 and the S P 500 s gain of 0 75 in that time
Investors will be hoping for strength from TEVA as it approaches its next earnings release which is expected to be February 13 2019 In that report analysts expect TEVA to post earnings of 0 55 per share This would mark a year over year decline of 40 86 Meanwhile our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of 4 53 billion down 17 01 from the prior year quarter
Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for TEVA Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near term business trends As a result we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company s business outlook
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near term stock prices We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear actionable rating model
The Zacks Rank system which ranges from 1 Strong Buy to 5 Strong Sell has an impressive outside audited track record of outperformance with 1 stocks generating an average annual return of 25 since 1988 Over the past month the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant TEVA currently has a Zacks Rank of 3 Hold
Valuation is also important so investors should note that TEVA has a Forward P E ratio of 6 65 right now For comparison its industry has an average Forward P E of 9 51 which means TEVA is trading at a discount to the group
Meanwhile TEVA s PEG ratio is currently 5 66 This metric is used similarly to the famous P E ratio but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock s expected earnings growth rate The Medical Generic Drugs industry currently had an average PEG ratio of 1 15 as of yesterday s close
The Medical Generic Drugs industry is part of the Medical sector This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 68 putting it in the top 27 of all 250 industries
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups Our research shows that the top 50 rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1
Make sure to utilize Zacks Com to follow all of these stock moving metrics and more in the coming trading sessions |
TEVA | Israel stocks higher at close of trade TA 35 up 0 34 | Investing com Israel stocks were higher after the close on Wednesday as gains in the Insurance Financials and Banking sectors led shares higher
At the close in Tel Aviv the TA 35 rose 0 34
The best performers of the session on the TA 35 were Partner TA PTNR which rose 4 63 or 81 points to trade at 1829 at the close Meanwhile Azrieli Group Ltd TA AZRG added 4 26 or 820 points to end at 20070 and Harel TA HARL was up 3 32 or 63 points to 1962 in late trade
The worst performers of the session were Perrigo TA PRGO which fell 3 61 or 970 points to trade at 25920 at the close Tower Semiconductor Ltd TA TSEM declined 1 88 or 147 points to end at 7662 and Teva TA TEVA was down 1 75 or 200 points to 11260
Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange by 238 to 162 and 101 ended unchanged
Crude oil for June delivery was down 0 15 or 0 07 to 47 59 a barrel Elsewhere in commodities trading Brent oil for delivery in July rose 0 12 or 0 06 to hit 50 52 a barrel while the June Gold Futures contract fell 0 47 or 5 86 to trade at 1251 14 a troy ounce
USD ILS was up 0 17 to 3 6133 while EUR ILS fell 0 04 to 3 9414
The US Dollar Index Futures was up 0 22 at 99 00 |
TEVA | Israel stocks higher at close of trade TA 35 up 0 05 | Investing com Israel stocks were higher after the close on Monday as gains in the Technology Banking and Biomed sectors led shares higher
At the close in Tel Aviv the TA 35 added 0 05 to hit a new 1 month high
The best performers of the session on the TA 35 were Frutarom TA FRUT which rose 1 89 or 400 points to trade at 21560 at the close Meanwhile Mizrahi Tefahot TA MZTF added 1 69 or 103 points to end at 6183 and Teva TA TEVA was up 1 31 or 150 points to 11590 in late trade
The worst performers of the session were Delek Drilling LP TA DEDRp which fell 2 21 or 31 points to trade at 1369 at the close Gazit Globe Ltd TA GZT declined 1 85 or 70 points to end at 3710 and OPKO Health Inc TA OPK was down 1 83 or 47 points to 2528
Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange by 219 to 194 and 89 ended unchanged
Crude oil for June delivery was up 2 80 or 1 34 to 49 18 a barrel Elsewhere in commodities trading Brent oil for delivery in July rose 2 50 or 1 27 to hit 52 11 a barrel while the June Gold Futures contract rose 0 51 or 6 28 to trade at 1233 98 a troy ounce
USD ILS was up 0 03 to 3 6016 while EUR ILS rose 0 46 to 3 9541
The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0 28 at 98 77 |
XOM | White House has not yet decided on Russia sanctions bill | By Patricia Zengerle WASHINGTON Reuters The White House said on Monday that President Barack Obama had not yet decided how to respond to a bill authorizing new sanctions against Russia over its activities in Ukraine although some lawmakers said they expected he would sign the measure into law This is something that has been the source of some discussions at the White House over the last several days spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters aboard Air Force One Administration officials said they are deeply concerned about Russia s actions in Ukraine but they want any sanctions regime to minimize the impact on U S business international oil markets and the global economy Obama had said previously he opposed further sanctions on Russia unless Europe is on board The administration had also held off supporting lethal military aid for the Kiev government which is also authorized in the bill Congress passed the Ukraine Freedom Support Act on Saturday seeking to put more pressure on President Vladimir Putin by authorizing new sanctions on weapons companies and investors in its high tech oil projects and to boost the Kiev government with military aid At the White House s request the measure authorizes sanctions but does not make them mandatory giving Obama leeway over what would actually be in force The measure s Senate sponsors Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Robert Menendez said they hoped Obama would sign the bill It would be a pretty big breach of relations because we worked with the administration so much Corker told Reuters John Boehner the Republican speaker of the House issued a statement on Monday urging Obama to sign the bill The rouble plunged around 10 percent against the dollar on Monday its sharpest fall since 1998 and Russian assets sold off across markets amid concern about possible new sanctions The bill authorizes Obama to apply sanctions on state owned arms exporter Rosoboronexport and other defense companies that Congress says contribute to instability in Ukraine Georgia and Syria Penalties go beyond U S and EU sanctions imposed in September on the world s largest oil companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp and BP Plc The legislation would also allow 350 million in lethal and non lethal military assistance to Ukraine from 2015 to 2017 and other aid for energy to the country which has been threatened by cutoffs in natural gas supplies from Russia Reporting by Patricia Zengerle Jeff Mason Steve Holland and Timothy Gardner Editing by Mohammad Zargham and Cynthia Osterman |
MRO | Three Oil E P Companies That Might Offer Investor Opportunities | Oil prices are rising but analyst estimates for oil companies EPS have not followed last week on TradingFloor com Mixed EPS momentumTaking a dive from the overall oil industry level to company specific EPS estimates reveals that in many cases they are being revised downwards see chart 1 It was a surprise to me to see such a large proportion of the companies are facing reduced earnings estimates at the same time as the oil price has risen just shy of 20 I would stay away from any company whose estimates are being cut right now as there is something in its business model that is not to investors advantage How I looked for possible investment opportunitiesWhen I analyse companies I like to look at Price Book versus Return on Equity Placing the data into at scatter diagram as in charts 2 tells me something about what an investor would get in return on his or her dollar I have for this purpose laid a line which illustrates a return of 8 If I pay twice the book value of a company the return should be twice as high A P B of 2 times should therefore match ROE of 16 etc The line tells me that some of the companies for example Oil Search and Range Resources are too expensive as the estimated return next year is simply not high enough to compensate for the high P B Of course they could have great projects coming online farther into the future but for this exercise I am looking only at FY1 Look above the line to find companies that could provide a better than expected return than 8 on your dollar The cross sectionIn table 1 the 7 companies with returns above the line are highlighted bold The companies in the table are listed by the highest EPS revisions and the positive revisions are above the bold line in row 7 This method leaves me with three names Impez Corp Marathon Oil and CNOOC where I would begin my more though research If a stronger for longer oil price is followed up by higher EPS estimates then the above companies could be in the sweet spot The P E on each of the three highlighted companies is between 8 8 and 11 6x earnings which seems a very attractive level compared to the other companies in the table There are risks of course Oil prices are volatile and exploration by its nature produces many disappointments Investors in these or any other oil company face a substantial downside risk if oil prices drop or projects fail to materialise You may also enjoy my on the topic of oil companies EPS |
MRO | The Best Mining And Energy Stock Bargains On The Market | There s an old saying on Wall Street that investors should look to the income statement for upside and the balance sheet for downside protection But for mining and energy stocks this axiom has been spun on its head Income statement metrics are forcing many of these stocks down but their balance sheets point to the way to vigorous upside while that downside protection also remains in place You can find no greater example of this than copper and gold miner Freeport McMoran NYSE FCX Copper prices have fallen from around 4 50 a pound in early 2011 to a recent 3 60 dampening the company s profit prospects Adding insult the company is temporarily seeing reduced output at a key Indonesian mine on the heels of work stoppages Lastly concerns continue to fester that China s insatiable appetite for copper is set to slow down Add it up and you have a pretty dismal stock chart To be sure this stock may look attractive at less than eight times trailing profits and less than four times trailing EBITDA but Freeport McMoran s earnings per share EPS is expected to slump about 15 this year to about 4 15 a share And investors simply shun stocks that are posting falling profits But such an environment is precisely where you find value Freeport McMoran is becoming a deep value stock if you measure the company s stock against the unlocked value in its various copper and gold mines Let me explain As mining engineers will tell you it s highly unlikely that we ll soon hear about a brand new mining opportunity anywhere in the world Any region that contains vast stores of copper gold or other minerals has already been identified and exploited So Freeport should benefit in the years to come from finite industry supply and stable to rising demand Simply based on current dynamics Goldman Sachs says Freeport McMoran s mines are worth 50 a share That s more than 25 above current levels Values across the board You can apply this same logic to many other mining firms Take gold mining stocks as an example They ve been steadily falling in value even as the value of gold has remained fairly steady As I noted a number of gold mining stocks now trade well below analysts price targets These stocks actually trade above net asset value NAV but that s only because the calculation involves historical purchase prices of mines and not the value of untapped gold that is waiting to be harvested On that basis analysts see solid potential upside for this beaten down group The oil and gas conundrum Trying to find verifiable bargains in the energy sector is a bit trickier Natural gas prices have been plunging and production is becoming uneconomical for many players Yet many of these same firms also have significant exposure to crude oil which has seen more robust pricing In light of the uncertainty regarding gas pricing right now it only pays to look at oil focused companies which have a greater reliance on oil production than gas production in the context of their underlying NAV What s a good baseline assumption for oil prices when calculating NAVs Well conveniently enough investing firm Jefferies Group has just issued an updated oil price forecast and updated NAV assumptions for many of the oil companies that the firm follows For the past few years Jefferies had assumed that Brent Crude Oil which reflects the spot market value in Europe would settle in at 85 a barrel in 2013 This figure has now been bumped to 100 Their targets for West Texas Intermediate Crude WTI which is the basis for U S pricing and is often at hefty discount to Brent Crude is now higher Jefferies sees WTI at 90 a barrel in 2013 and 95 a barrel by 2014 or 2015 Key positive and negative factors behind this updated view Chinese oil imports will likely slow because domestic natural gas production is rising at a 20 annual pace and substituting oil at some power plants OPEC is showing more discipline and will defend oil by cutting output if Brent falls below 100 Rising production costs are making certain energy fields economically unfeasible when oil falls much below 100 a barrel creating a supply cut trigger With higher targets for oil prices in the coming years the analysts at Jefferies have also been kind enough to reconsider their previous target prices so the following oil stocks now have solid upside according to the firm My personal favorite NAV play remains Marathon Oil NYSE MRO which is a member of my 100 000 Real Money Portfolio The company has a range of assets in the United States and abroad Merrill Lynch pegs the NAV for Marathon Oil at 56 a share nearly double the current price Shares have weakened recently on slipping energy prices but coming quarters should start to show the results of the company s large capital spending program which should steadily boost output of oil and gas over the next few years Risks to Consider China is still a driving force in the commodities markets and although recent economic data suggest that economy is doing OK a hard landing would bring down demand and commodity pricing These companies have spent considerable sums acquiring and developing their assets On occasion investors tend to overlook the value of these investments and sell off stocks based on near term cash flow trends These are the times when asset focused investors tend to come in and scoop up bargains Any of the stocks I mention here are good candidates to consider buying based on that premise by David Sterman |
XOM | Exxon Mobil Corp Retreats At Double Top Resistance | This morning leading integrated energy stock Exxon Mobil Corp NYSE XOM is declining lower by 0 86 cents to 102 07 a share The stock looks to be pulling back from a double top resistance area on the daily chart from May 8 2014 It should be noted that Exxon Mobil Corp stock is still trading above its daily chart 20 and 50 day moving averages This puts the stock in a strong technical position despite the decline in the stock today Day traders should watch for solid intra day support around the 101 50 level This is an area on the chart where day traders could expect institutional sponsorship and intra day bounce |
XOM | Fed Minutes Boost Trading In These ETFs | Investors heaved a sigh of relief yesterday following the minutes from the Fed meeting held last month The minutes revealed that the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates and has maintained its accommodative stance The minutes also suggest that the Fed is on track to pull the world s largest economy out of an era of loose monetary policy and plans to end its monthly asset purchases in October This is especially true as the U S economy has regained momentum after the steep decline of 2 9 in GDP growth in the first quarter The officials expect the economy to continue to strengthen at healthy growth rates for the rest of this year Strongest growth in the job market last month since the technology boom in late 1990 encouraging signs of improvement in the housing market and increasing consumer confidence added to the optimism Further the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level in almost six years to 6 1 in June suggesting increased confidence in the 5 year old U S recovery Despite the improving economy the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates until the second half of the next year According to it inflation has definitely picked up significantly in recent months but is still below the Fed s 2 target The Fed continued its commitment to keep the rates at lower levels for a considerable period of time even after QE wrap up This would further put downward pressure on dollar in the coming days Although the Fed minutes did not deliver anything new the U S stocks rose in Wednesday trading session snapping the two day slide as investors are more confident that the 5 year bull market has room for further upside in the coming days With that being said several ETFs have garnered special interest from investors in terms of volume the number of shares traded on a particular day Below we have highlighted three ETFs that have seen an incredible rise in volumes on the day as per finviz com PowerShares Dynamic Large Cap Growth Portfolio NYSE PWB This ETF provides pure exposure to the large cap growth segment of the broad U S equity market by tracking the Dynamic Large Cap Growth Intellidex Index The fund is widely diversified across 49 securities as none of these makes up for more than 3 7 of total assets From a sector look the ETF is skewed toward consumer discretionary at 28 35 while industrials 15 65 and information technology 12 62 round off to the top three spots The product has accumulated around 281 8 million in AUM and charges 59 bps in fees per year The fund added 0 70 in Wednesday session with elevated volumes of more than 10 times on a normal day PWB has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or Hold with a Medium risk outlook PowerShares Dynamic Networking Portfolio NYSE PXQ This product targets the networking segment of the broad U S technology sector It follows the Dynamic Networking Intellidex Index holding 30 securities in its basket The fund is pretty spread across each component as each security account for less than 5 2 share in the basket However it has a definite tilt toward small caps accounting for 55 while mid and large caps make up for 25 and 19 of the portfolio respectively see all the Technology ETFs here In terms of industrial exposure communication equipment dominates the fund portfolio with more than half of the portfolio followed by 30 in software and programing The ETF is unpopular with AUM of 29 million and expense ratio of 0 64 Though the fund is illiquid with average daily volume of under 7 000 shares volume expanded 9 57 times in yesterday trading The ETF was up just 1 25 on the day and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 with a High risk outlook iShares Russell Top 200 Value ETF NYSE IWX This ETF tracks the Russell Top 200 Value Index and offers pure exposure to the large cap value segment of the U S equity market Holding 125 stocks in its basket the fund is concentrated on its top firm Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM at 6 34 and the top sector financials at 27 Other securities and sectors make up for a nice mix in the portfolio The product has accumulated around 200 6 million in its asset base and charges 0 20 in expense ratio The fund added 0 33 in the last trading session on solid volumes of more than 8 5 times a normal day IWX has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or Buy with a Medium risk outlook |
TEVA | Should Value Investors Buy Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd TEVA Stock | While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies With this in mind we are always looking at value growth and momentum trends to discover great companies
Of these value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment Value investors use a variety of methods including tried and true valuation metrics to find these stocks
In addition to the Zacks Rank investors looking for stocks with specific traits can utilize our Style Scores system Of course value investors will be most interested in the system s Value category Stocks with A grades for Value and high Zacks Ranks are among the best value stocks available at any given moment
One company to watch right now is Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd NYSE TEVA TEVA is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of 2 Buy as well as a Value grade of A The stock has a Forward P E ratio of 6 06 This compares to its industry s average Forward P E of 8 09 Over the past year TEVA s Forward P E has been as high as 9 03 and as low as 4 91 with a median of 7 65
Value investors also frequently use the P S ratio This metric is found by dividing a stock s price with the company s revenue This is a prefered metric because revenue can t really be manipulated so sales are often a truer performance indicator TEVA has a P S ratio of 0 84 This compares to its industry s average P S of 2 04
These are only a few of the key metrics included in Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd s strong Value grade but they help show that the stock is likely undervalued right now When factoring in the strength of its earnings outlook TEVA looks like an impressive value stock at the moment |
TEVA | Teva Pharm says media reports of up to 6 000 layoffs incorrect | JERUSALEM Reuters Teva Pharmaceutical Industries TA TEVA plans to end unprofitable activities and freeze recruitment but said Israeli media reports of up to 6 000 layoffs were incorrect Earlier on Thursday two of Israel s leading financial news websites carried separate reports that Teva the world s biggest generic drug maker and Israel s largest company planned to fire between 2 000 and 6 000 workers or as much as 11 percent of the workforce A Teva spokesperson had initially declined to comment on the report but the company later put out a statement saying the figures the media gave were inaccurate The efficiency program is an integral part of Teva s business reality The program includes among other things ending unprofitable activities and consolidating functions in addition to freezing recruitment and natural employee turnover the company said These processes are conducted through a continuous open dialogue with the employees This will be the practice including in Israel as necessary We would like to stress that the numbers which were published in the media are incorrect it said Teva N TEVA employs around 57 000 people globally It has had a rough year though with a series of costly acquisitions along with delayed drug launches sending its stock plummeting 72 percent to 32 61 the past 12 months That forced former chief executive Erez Vigodman to step down in February with Chairman Yitzhak Peterburg replacing him on a temporary basis
One of the websites Calcalist said Teva has already reduced its workforce in Israel by around 100 people as part of the efficiency plan |
TEVA | FDA OKs Teva s Austedo for HD chorea shares ahead 2 premarket | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries NYSE TEVA is up 2 premarket on modestly higher volume in response to its announcement that the FDA has approved AUSTEDO deutetrabenazine tablets for the treatment of chorea abnormal involuntary movements associated with Huntington s disease HD an Orphan Drug indication
HD is a neurodegenerative disease that affects more than 35K Americans each year |
TEVA | Teva launches new asthma meds | Teva Pharmaceutical Industries TEVA 0 3 announces the simultaneous U S launch of AirDuo RespiClick fluticasone propionate and salmeterol and its authorized generic for the treatment of asthma patients at least 12 years old who are inadequately controlled on an inhaled corticosteroid or whose disease severity warrants the use of an ICS LABA combination The company says it expects the bulk of sales to come from the generic product Now read Analysts Tag Stein Mart Top Safe Sector Leader Dividend Dog For February |
TEVA | Israel stocks lower at close of trade TA 35 down 0 57 | Investing com Israel stocks were lower after the close on Sunday as losses in the Insurance Oil Gas and Banking sectors led shares lower
At the close in Tel Aviv the TA 35 lost 0 57
The best performers of the session on the TA 35 were Teva TA TEVA which rose 1 06 or 120 points to trade at 11400 at the close Meanwhile Ormat Technologies TA ORA added 1 01 or 210 points to end at 21080 and Isramco L TA ISRAp was up 0 76 or 0 5 points to 66 1 in late trade
The worst performers of the session were ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd TA ICL which fell 2 45 or 37 points to trade at 1475 at the close Bazan Oil Refineries Ltd TA ORL declined 2 32 or 3 4 points to end at 143 3 and Partner TA PTNR was down 2 30 or 44 points to 1866
Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange by 236 to 132 and 46 ended unchanged
Crude oil for June delivery was down 2 17 or 1 10 to 49 61 a barrel Elsewhere in commodities trading Brent oil for delivery in July unchanged 0 00 or 0 00 to hit 52 44 a barrel while the June Gold Futures contract rose 0 13 or 1 70 to trade at 1285 50 a troy ounce
USD ILS was up 0 22 to 3 6799 while EUR ILS rose 0 04 to 3 9366
The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0 05 at 99 66 |
TEVA | Teva Pharmaceutical CFO to step down media | TEL AVIV Reuters The chief financial officer of Teva Pharmaceutical NYSE TEVA Industries TA TEVA Eyal Desheh is stepping down and will likely be appointed chairman of Isracard Bank Hapoalim s TA POLI credit card company Israeli news websites reported on Tuesday Desheh joined Teva as CFO in 2008 and briefly served as acting CEO from October 2013 to February 2014 Teva was left without a permanent chief executive in February after Erez Vigodman stepped down leaving new management to restore confidence in the world s biggest generic drugmaker after a series of missteps A string of costly acquisitions along with delayed drug launches have sent Teva shares plummeting and led to calls for management and structural changes including a possible split into separate generic and branded medicine units Officials at Teva declined to comment on the reports Hapoalim is now considering the selection of a new chairman for Isracard Israel s biggest bank said in a statement noting there were a number of candidates The selection of a chairman will be subject to the recommendation of Bank Hapoalim s board of directors and the decision of Isracard s board The appointment would also need approval from the Bank of Israel
When a decision is made we will announce it to the public Hapoalim said |
XOM | U S Congress readies new sanctions on Russia | By Timothy Gardner WASHINGTON Reuters U S lawmakers were expected on Friday to approve new sanctions on Russian weapons companies and investors in the country s high tech oil projects putting more U S pressure on President Vladimir Putin for interference in eastern Ukraine Late on Thursday the Senate and House of Representatives unanimously passed the Ukraine Freedom Support Act A House panel made a small change and sent the bill back to the Senate for a last vote expected as soon as late Friday President Barack Obama has said he opposes further sanctions on Russia unless Europe is on board The bill which will be sent to Obama to sign requires him to apply sanctions on Russian state owned arms exporter Rosoboronexport and other defense companies Congress says contribute to instability in Ukraine Georgia and Syria It requires Obama to penalize global companies that make large investments in crude oil drilling projects in deep waters and the Arctic The penalties go beyond U S and EU sanctions imposed in September on the world s largest oil companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp and BP Plc The legislation would also provide 350 million in military assistance to Ukraine from 2015 to 2017 and other aid for energy to the country which has been threatened by cutoffs in natural gas supply from Russia Republicans who control the House and will have a majority in the Senate from January have criticized Obama s reaction to Russian interference in Ukraine as inadequate The hesitant U S response to Russia s continued invasion of Ukraine threatens to escalate this conflict even further said Senator Bob Corker a Tennessee Republican incoming chairman of the foreign relations committee The unanimous support for the bill showed a firm commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty and to making sure Putin pays for his assault on freedom and security in Europe said Corker who co authored the bill with Democratic Senator Robert Menendez the current head of the panel The bill authorizes Obama to penalize the top Russian natural gas producer Gazprom if he determines it is withholding significant natural gas supplies from NATO members or from Ukraine Georgia and Moldova Lawmakers dropped a measure that would have designated Ukraine Georgia and Moldova as non NATO allies of Washington Obama on Thursday said slapping fresh sanctions on Russia without a similar move by Europe would be counterproductive
In Kiev on Friday Ukraine s defense minister called for a doubling of the military budget to buy weapons abroad and better equip the army to fight Russian backed separatists in the east Additional reporting by Steve Holland Editing by David Gregorio |
XOM | Geopolitics Friends Not Enemies Pose More Difficult Challenge | What ultimately led US President Nixon to close the gold window was not its Cold War rival Russia Rather it was US European allies who wanted to exchange their dollars for gold beyond levels that the US was prepared to accept This has been a consistent theme through today
As the German foreign minister put it European officials got too excited about the opposition to the previous pro Russia government and they forgot about the geopolitics This created an opportunity for Russia to push its Medvedev Doctrine as it has done elsewhere Essentially the doctrine says that the post WWII borders are not sacrosanct They were a historical accident and Russia has an interest where ever there are ethnic Russians living Brighton Beach Georgia s miscalculations in 2008 provided Russia with a similar opportunity
Among the first things that the unelected Ukrainian government sought to do was to reduce the status of the Russian language There was speculation that it would seek to renegotiate the naval base lease in Crimea with Russia that had previously been agreed to under duress pressure from Russia Putin seized the opportunity to reassert his sphere of influence
In Asia it was the Governor of Tokyo that bought the disputed islands and in effect forced their nationalization China was willing to let sleeping dogs lie So for good reasons time is on their side Chinese officials expect to be stronger five years from now and ten years from now There is no urgency to resolve longstanding disputes now However China refuses to be dealt a fait accompli
The Philippines also seem to have used force to try to settle one of its disputed islands It purposely sank a small ship on one of the Spratly Islands and turned it into a garrison to defend it China sought in vain earlier this year to prevent it from resupplying Vietnam appears to have been emboldened by Japan and the Philippines but it lacks a critical thing they have namely a security treaty with the US Vietnam may offer China the best opportunity to set an example and hope others fall in line An old Chinese saying puts it like this Sometimes one has to kill a chicken to scare the monkeys
Even after Russia s occupation of some areas in Georgia France and Germany sold Russia more military resources France is currently training Russian sailors on a ship that it is due to deliver later this year Russian officials have boasted that if they had those resources earlier they could have achieved their aims in Georgia significantly quicker
Now the US and Europe have agreed to formal sanctions and visa freezes There are informal channels as well US officials tried to dissuade companies from attending the St Petersburg economic forum last week While many US and European companies did not attend several did New energy deals were announced
Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM strengthened its ties with Rosneft MCX ROSN even though the CEO is on the US blacklist It extended the existing agreement to develop oil fields in Siberia and the Arctic France s Total PARIS TOTF increased its ties with Lukoil MCX LKOH providing further investment
BP LONDON BP Royal Dutch Shell A AMS RDSa and ENI MILAN ENI also struck new deals The majority of Russia s oil comes from the Siberia fields which are being depleted BP will help Rosneft develop fracking in Siberia and Volga Urals Royal Dutch is deepening its relations with Gazprom MCX GAZP
One of the more interesting deals is with Italy s Eni Eni is one of Europe s largest gas wholesalers and is owned in part by the Italian government It had renegotiated its contract with Gazprom last year Reports suggested it won a concession of at least 7 Last week Eni won what appears to be an even larger concession from Gazprom The Russian giant agreed to scrap its 50 year old practice of indexing gas supplies to oil prices retroactively to the start of the year This aligns prices more with the spot market and in effect lowers the price of natural gas Some analysts estimate that the Gazprom concession can boost Eni s operating profits by half a billion euro this year alone This is a transfer from Gazprom to Eni
The new deals are clearly driven by commercial interests Securing cheaper energy for Europe is one thing It is quite another to help Russia develop its resources At the same time Russia s concessions to China and now Europe suggests it is more desperate than its bravado rhetoric would indicate Russia s concessions also appear to recognize that the price of LNG is likely to fall further as new supplies come on line including the first US Gulf Coast exports next year High cost LNG producers like Australia the prices of its LNG being sold to Japan is reported twice what China agreed to pay Russia are vulnerable too
Building capacity for Russia and helping it develop its resources frustrates US and European policy makers who are trying to isolate it Some of the agreements may adhere to the letter of the sanctions but violate its spirit This is a well known challenge for a sanctioned regime |
XOM | The Top Plays For Russia s 400 Billion China Deal | Last week Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he would accept the outcome of the Ukrainian elections and begin pulling Russian troops back
Don t be fooled though The timing of that statement was no coincidence
It came as Russia signed a new 400 billion energy deal with China which will see it supply 38 billion cubic meters bcm of natural gas to the Chinese
Negotiations with China have actually been ongoing for almost 10 years now But a finalization of the deal was likely prompted by the global pushback against Russia over its meddling in the affairs of Ukraine
You see while the 38 bcm pales in comparison to the more than 160 million cubic meters mcm that Russia supplies to Europe over 30 of European supply it will fill a gap that s sure to occur given that the eurozone is actively looking for other suppliers for its energy needs
And the gas won t start flowing until 2018 or 2019 which is about the same time that Russia will face major competition from other natural gas suppliers to Europe
It s another pertinent reminder of what I say time and time again here He who has the energy has the power
And in this case there s a standout play
Russia And China Stick It To The West
The deal with China isn t going to be cheap for Russia
There s little doubt that the deal is structured favorably for the Chinese as it s not in the dire monetary straits that some of Russia s cash strapped customers are
For example Russia will have to foot the cost of building a gas pipeline it will actually build enough capacity to supply up to 60 bcm and then hope that the Chinese live up to their end of the bargain and buy the gas
Nevertheless it s another example of why despite any sanctions that the West imposes controversial nations like Russia can never be frozen out of the energy game
As I said energy is power Even the Iranians under ongoing sanctions isolation and the threat of military action from the West still have customers for their oil
Russia is no different It boasts the world s largest natural gas reserves That gives the country a lot of leverage in both price and supply
Its deal with China is mutually beneficial The Russians don t have to worry about what China thinks of its human rights record or vice versa Neither country could care less about what the West thinks and both are superpowers in their own right
It also means that Russian energy companies which are among the cheapest in the world today continue to represent speculative value for investors who have the nerve to stick it out
The Big Winner From Russia s Deal With China
One of the best plays is Gazprom Oao MCX GAZP
It s the largest gas company in the world accounting for more than 20 of global supply and more than 85 of Russian supplies
Over the past six or seven months its share price has suffered amid growing concerns regarding Russia s increasingly belligerent attitude
At current levels the share price values the company at around one third of similarly sized rivals like Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE XOM It s worth considering for the speculative portion of your portfolio Shares are very liquid on the U S over the counter exchange
Keep in mind that since it s majority owned by the Russian government its policies and agreements are basically subject to the blessing of the Kremlin Still in light of the major deal with China if there s one company that stands to benefit massively in the coming year Gazprom is probably the bet to make |
XOM | Apocalypse Now Maybe Later Probably Never | I have been thinking about the kind of tail risk posed by sudden events that could tank global risk appetite and therefore the financial markets My conclusion is that the so called tail risks are wrong and the immediate threat posed by tail risk is lower than the market thinks Let me explain There are three sources of event risk that could cause the markets to swoon
Iraq
Russia Ukraine
Chinese financial crisis
As I go through this analysis bear the following in mind Don t consider the event through a geopolitical lens which could be potentially serious but through a market lens For the purpose of this analysis it s important to be politically agnostic and think about the potential market impact of the event
The threat from Iraq
Let s start with the freak out du jour Iraq Andrew Critchlow of sums up the economic risks posed by higher crude prices because of a curtailment of Iraqi oil production emphasis added
Open warfare between the government and rebels in Iraq would pose a threat to the global economic recovery should oil production from the war torn Middle East state suffer a serious disruption analysts have warned Brent oil prices climbed as high as 110 25 65 59 on Wednesday amid concerns that 3 5m barrels per day of Iraqi exports could be knocked out of the market by the violence that has seen al Qaeda forces seize control of Mosul Tikrit and Samarra The worst case scenario is that we see production from Iraq slip down to levels in the last Gulf war then oil could spike 20 a barrel very quickly Ole Hansen vice president and head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank told The Telegraph In that scenario the entire economic recovery which is still fragile could stall and we could even slip back into recession in some regions
It didn t help matters when elements of the Iraqi Army engaged in mass desertions in the face of the assault leaving weapons vehicles and depots intact for the rebels to seize via
The Islamists also took over the main crossing from Iraq to Syria at Yaaroubiyeh They rode out of the Mosul battle Tuesday with 260 new armored vehicles of various types enough to equip a full division taken booty from the Iraqi army The roads out of the city are clogged with an estimated half a million refugees in flight from the bloodshed and chaos with no means of support Although he declared a national state of emergency Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki has no illusions about his army standing up to the ferocious al Qaeda fighters And indeed the tens of thousands of troops stationed in Mosul turned tail Tuesday and fled under the onslaught
Further analysis reveals that the majority of current Iraqi oil production comes from the south as these graphics from show
The Marketwatch article went on to detail the current threat to Iraqi oil production which is not very much at the moment
An underlying fear in the oil market is that the fighting will spread to Iraq s main oil producing areas in the south Meanwhile Iraq s biggest refinery at Baijii in the north remains under government control Iraqi oil minister Abdul Kareem Luaibi said Thursday according to Reuters Luaibi said Iraqi crude exports from its southern terminal at Basra were running at an average of 2 6 million to 2 7 million barrels a day on Wednesday
Other filed on Friday and over the weekend indicate that ISIS is in control of the Baijii oil refinery The threat to oil production is not serious so far
The northern oil fields have been taken yet that area of the country was not really active There had been damaged pipelines due to sabotage said Phil Flynn senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Basra in the south of Iraq seems to be operating normally and any attack on Baghdad may be met with much tougher resistance
Most of current Iraqi production leaves through the Persian Gulf This map of rebel gains shown in red and battles yellow from shows the current battle map of Iraq h t Across the Curve
The rebels appear to be trying to encircle Baghdad as they are not strong enough to take it by direct assault
The lightning advance of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham and its allies from Mosul to the outskirts of Samarra as well as its capture of several towns in eastern Diyala all over the course of several days appears to be part of a greater strategy to surround the capital of Baghdad before laying siege to it This plan to take over the belt region outside of Baghdad and cut off the capital appears to be the same strategy used by the ISIS predecessor back in 2006 The 2006 plan which was drawn up by the Islamic State of Iraq ISI the forerunner of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham ISIS was discovered after the US found a crude map on the body of Abu Musab al Zarqawi al Qaeda in Iraq s leader who was killed by US forces in Baqubah in June 2006 The Baghdad belts map was released by Multinational Forces Iraq during its offensive to liberate vast areas under al Qaeda ISI control in 2007 and 2008 Zarqawi s plan was to seize control of the outer provinces and Baghdad s belts or key areas surrounding the capital The ISI would then use its bases in the belts to control access to Baghdad and funnel money weapons car bombs and fighters into the city The ISI also planned to strangle the US helicopter air lanes by emplacing anti aircraft cells along known routes in the belts areas around Baghdad In the ISI s 2006 plan the Baghdad belts were divided into five regions the Southern Belt which included northern Babil and southern Diyala provinces the Western belt which included eastern Anbar province and the Thar Thar area the Northern belt which included southern Salahaddin province and cities such as Taji the Diyala belt which included Baqubah and Khalis and the Eastern belt which included the rural areas east of Baghdad Watching the ISIS operations today it appears the group is attempting to implement a strategy which is very similar if not identical to the previous one This should come as no surprise Nasser al Din Allah Abu Suleiman ISIS current war minister was a leader in al Qaeda in Iraq ISI when the Baghdad belt strategy was implemented Suleiman was appointed by al Qaeda in May 2010 to serve as the terror group s top military commander after his predecessor Abu Ayyub al Masri was killed in a raid by Iraqi and US forces in April 2010
Stratfor s analysis came to a similar conclusion these military gains pose no immediate threat to the regime in Baghdad via emphasis added
The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant knows that its opportunity in Iraq will not stay open for long given that demographic trends in Iraq favor the Shia It also recognizes its limits among Iraq s Sunnis Most important it understands the convergence of U S Iranian and Turkish interests that is underway for different reasons none of these three countries can tolerate its expansion in Iraq This means the group knows it is not in a position to seize Baghdad just yet For now it must try quickly to consolidate itself in the Sunni dominated provinces of Anbar Ninawa and Salah ad Din as well as the mixed provinces of Kirkuk and Diyala It knows that the outside countries will not send ground forces into Iraq s Sunni areas and instead will rely on air power and special operations forces against its fighters Therefore the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant will limit itself to establishing a presence in western Iraq similar to what it has in eastern Syria where outsiders will fear to tread and where neither the Shiite dominated central government nor the Kurdistan Regional Government can impose its writ If the jihadist group can survive any amount of space where it can enjoy freedom of activity will suffice for its purposes of establishing an emirate in the roughly contiguous cross border area affording it strategic depth and a launchpad for later offensives against Baghdad and Damascus
If there is no immediate military threat to the Baghdad regime and the status quo then there is no immediate threat to southern oil production Even if the rebels were to be successful they have shown themselves to be highly calculating in their management of captured oil production facilities reported in January that ISIS was selling Syrian oil through the Syrian regime As well the recently reported that ISIS was selling Syrian oil and electricity to finance their military campaign While the emergence of this group in the Middle East is a geopolitical threat to the status quo there does not seem to be any threat to global oil production even if they are successful Remember my earlier warning to be politically agnostic when investing We are likely seeing the start of a protracted military campaign by ISIS The current minor market freak out should fade just as the last freak out over the Russia Ukraine crisis faded from the headlines
The dire warnings about Russian sanctions
Speaking of Russia Ukraine it seems that doesn t matter to the markets anymore That s why it pays to take a deep breath and be cautious about the market s initial reaction to geopolitical events If most Americans have trouble placing Ukraine on a world map as per this how can you trust the initial knee jerk market reaction
Where s Ukraine Each dot depicts the location where a U S survey respondent situated Ukraine the dots are colored based on how far removed they are from the actual country with the most accurate responses in red and the least accurate ones in blue Data Survey Sampling International Figure Thomas Zeitzoff The Monkey Cage
Recall the headlines then and what has happened since Ambrose Evans Pritchard of warned us how American sanctions could bring Russia to its knees
The United States has constructed a financial neutron bomb For the past 12 years an elite cell at the US Treasury has been sharpening the tools of economic warfare designing ways to bring almost any country to its knees without firing a shot The strategy relies on hegemonic control over the global banking system buttressed by a network of allies and the reluctant acquiescence of neutral states Let us call this the Manhattan Project of the early 21st century The stealth weapon is a scarlet letter devised under Section 311 of the US Patriot Act Once a bank is tainted in this way accused of money laundering or underwriting terrorist activities a suitably loose offence it becomes radioactive caught in the boa constrictor s lethal embrace as Mr Zarate puts it This can be a death sentence even if the lender has no operations in the US European banks do not dare to defy US regulators They sever all dealings with the victim
Notwithstanding the fact that an economic war sparked by sanctions could slow eurozone growth and a Russian collapse could threaten the West as the effects of financial contagion ripples through the global financial system the repercussions could have been even greater Evans Pritchard painted an Apocalyptic scenario of what might happen if Putin decided to retaliate
The greatest risk is surely an asymmetric riposte by the Kremlin Russia s cyber warfare experts are among the best and they had their own trial run on Estonia in 2007 A cyber shutdown of an Illinois water system was tracked to Russian sources in 2011 We don t know whether US Homeland Security can counter a full blown denial of service attack on electricity grids water systems air traffic control or indeed the New York Stock Exchange and nor does Washington If we were in a cyberwar today the US would lose We re simply the most dependent and most vulnerable said US spy chief Mike McConnell in 2010 The US defence secretary Leon Panetta warned of a cyber Pearl Harbour in 2012 They could shut down the power grid across large parts of the country They could derail passenger trains or even more dangerous derail passenger trains loaded with lethal chemicals They could contaminate the water supply in major cities or shut down the power grid across large parts of the country he said Slapstick exaggeration to extract more funds from Congress We may find out
The British with their classical education can always be counted on to give us lessons from ancient history
Sanctions are as old as time So are the salutary lessons Pericles tried to cow the city state of Megara in 432 BC by cutting off trade access to markets of the Athenian Empire He set off the Pelopennesian Wars bringing Sparta s hoplite infantry crashing down on Athens Greece s economic system was left in ruins at the mercy of Persia That was a taste of asymmetry
In light of these dire warnings consider what has happened since This report informs us that corporate America has been quietly lobbying behind the scenes to blunt the effects of sanctions
The U S is holding off on sanctions against some Russian companies because it doesn t want to hurt American holders of their debt according to Fitch Ratings We ve heard quite a lot of anecdotal evidence that there s actually a lot of consultation with big investors and bondholders in terms of what sanctions might be imposed by the U S James Watson a managing director at Fitch told reporters today in London It seems there has been a significant push back on potentially sanctioning companies that have significant foreign debt
So even as Gazprom Oao MCX GAZP if the outstanding bills aren t paid the reports that the CEO of Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM is scheduled to speak at an energy summit in Moscow with Rosneft MCX ROSN CEO Sechin Ho hum Apocalypse Later or maybe Apocalypse Never
China is not collapsing
I have written much about China see my last two posts Measuring market expectations on China and China turning Japanese The main catastrophic risk posed to the global markets is a banking crisis in China which unleashes a wave of defaults that spill over to the global financial system Indeed the Chinese financial system is looking more wobbly these days as almost every day we are seeing and in over supplied markets This is particularly important as loans are anchored by collateral namely real estate rather than cash flow because financial statements about cash flow are ahem unreliable while real estate is cough cough solid Falling property prices could therefore set off a wave of defaults as collateral values collapse While this dire scenario could still be very much in the cards the near term outlook seems to be improving This report indicates that the authorities have resorted to the same old same old policy instrument of credit growth to boost the economy emphasis added
China s new yuan loans and money supply topped estimates in May as the government supports economic growth while reining in shadow banking
Local currency loans were 870 8 billion yuan 140 billion the People s Bank of China said on its website yesterday higher than 42 out of 43 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey M2 the broadest measure of money supply rose 13 4 percent compared with a median projection for 13 1 percent China is in danger of missing a 2014 target for economic growth of about 7 5 percent prompting Premier Li Keqiang to speed up government spending and make limited cuts to lenders reserve requirements The World Bank warned last week that rapid credit growth and debt accumulation by local governments are risks to financial stability May is the first month this year we ve seen a sizable easing of liquidity as evidenced by the strong new bank loans said Larry Hu head of China economics at Macquarie Securities Ltd in Hong Kong It suggests that policy makers are turning more serious about the downside risks to the economy and began ramping up pro growth measures
Indeed the markets seem to have discounted the risk of an immediate collapse in the Chinese financial system One measure is the Old China New China pair trade see An New China Old China pair trade The New China basket Golden Dragon Halter USX China NYSE PGJ consists mainly of shares of companies exposed to the Chinese consumer while the Old China basket iShares FTSE Xinhua China 25 Index ARCA FXI is tilted towards the financial sector which has been the instrument of past government policy to stimulate the economy via credit driven infrastructure growth
Note how the Old China basket has been rallying against the New China basket since the pair bottomed out in March
As well despite the Australia bearish news about falling iron ore and other base metal prices and the the AUD CAD cross rate remains in an uptrend This cross rate is an important barometer of market sentiment of infrastructure spending in China because both the Australian and Canadian economies are resource based with the Canadian economy more exposed to US growth while the Aussie economy is more sensitive to Chinese growth
In effect Mr Market is telling us that the near term outlook for China is improving Oh well Apocalypse Later for China Russia Ukraine and Iraq This does not mean that these risks have totally gone away just that there is little imminent threat of a collapse This also doesn t mean that I am not concerned about the markets see How stocks are both cheap AND expensive In the meantime bring on the low VIX and low volatility for financial assets The current readings of the VIX term structure suggests that complacency levels are not all that elevated see Worried about a low VIX The ECB has decided to throw a party and the party in America is still continuing so don t be such a worry wart
Disclosure Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd Qwest The opinions and any recommendations expressed in the blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions and recommendations of Qwest Qwest reviews Mr Hui s blog to ensure it is connected with Mr Hui s obligation to deal fairly honestly and in good faith with the blog s readers None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument Nothing in this blog constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions Past performance is not indicative of future results Either Qwest or I may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned |
TEVA | Regeneron REGN Rides On Eylea And Dupixent s Performance | Shares of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc NASDAQ REGN have gained 11 in the past six months against a decline of 9 6 for the
Tarrytown New York based Regeneron s key areas of focus include eye diseases heart diseases allergic and inflammatory diseases pain cancer infectious diseases and rare diseases
Regeneron s key growth driver Eylea continues to drive revenues for the company Regeneron has co developed Eylea with the HealthCare unit of Bayer DE BAYGN AG OTC BAYRY Eylea is approved in the United States EU Japan and other countries for the treatment of wet AMD diabetic macular edema DME and macular edema following retinal vein occlusion which includes macular edema following central retinal vein occlusion and macular edema following branch retinal vein occlusion
Meanwhile Regeneron is working on expanding Eylea s label into additional indications The FDA recently approved a 12 week dosing interval of Eylea injection in patients with wet AMD based on physician s assessment
Consequently Eylea is now the only anti VEGF drug for the treatment of wet AMD that offers the flexibility to optimally treat patients regardless of whether they require fixed interval dosing of 4 8 or 12 weeks The FDA also accepted for review the supplemental Biologics License Application sBLA of Eylea for the treatment of diabetic retinopathy with a target action date of May 13 2019
Label expansion of other approved drugs will also boost sales for the company
Dupixent s performance has been strong so far after the drug was approved last year for the treatment of adults with moderate to severe atopic dermatitis AD The company and partner Sanofi NYSE SNY are also working to expand Dupixent s label which should diversify the company s revenue base and reduce dependence on the lead drug
In October 2018 the FDA approved Dupixent as an add on maintenance therapy in patients aged 12 years or older with moderate to severe asthma The drug is also under review in Europe for this indication and a decision is expected in the second quarter of 2019 The FDA has also accepted for priority review the sBLA for AD in adolescent patients and set a target action date of Mar 11 2019
Regeneron is working to expand its portfolio pipeline In September 2018 the FDA approved Libtayo for the treatment of patients with metastatic or locally advanced CSCC who are not candidates for curative surgery or curative radiation The drug is also under review in Europe and a decision is expected in the first half of 2019 Libtayo is also being evaluated for the treatment of non small cell lung cancer in a phase III study which is currently enrolling
The company is also working to expand its PCSK9 inhibitor Praluent s label The FDA approved Praluent for the treatment of patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia HeFH undergoing apheresis The agency also accepted an sBLA for Praluent as a potential treatment to reduce major adverse cardiovascular events and had set a target action date of Apr 28 2019
Approval of new drugs will further boost the top line Earlier the company and partner Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd NYSE TEVA announced positive top line results from a phase III study on pipeline candidate fasinumab in patients suffering from chronic pain from osteoarthritis OA of the knee or hip
We expect a solid performance from the company in the coming quarters as well
Zacks Rank
Regeneron currently carries a Zacks Rank 2 Buy You can see
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